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Sample records for jma global model

  1. Tropical cyclone track forecasts using JMA model with ECMWF and JMA initial conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamaguchi, Munehiko; Nakazawa, Tetsuo; Aonashi, Kazumasa

    2012-05-01

    The JMA's Global Spectral Model (JMA/GSM) was run from the initial conditions of ECMWF, which are available in the YOTC data set, to distinguish between TC track prediction errors attributable to the initial conditions and those attributable to the NWP model. The average position error was reduced by about 10% by replacing the initial conditions, and in some cases, the predictions were significantly improved. In these cases, the low wavenumber component of the ECMWF analysis was found to account for most of the improvement. In addition, the observed tracks were captured by the JMA Typhoon Ensemble Prediction System (TEPS), which deals with initial condition uncertainties. In some cases, however, the replacement of the initial conditions did not improve the prediction even when the ECMWF forecast was accurate. In these cases, TEPS could not capture the observed track either, implying the need for dealing with uncertainties associated with the NWP model.

  2. Intensity and Development Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones by the JMA High-Resolution Global NWP Model: Impacts of Resolution Enhancement

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Komori, T.; Kitagawa, H.

    2007-12-01

    It is widely considered that a spatial resolution of numerical weather prediction (NWP) model plays an important role for forecasting severe weather events such as tropical cyclones (TCs) and heavy rainfall. Under the KAKUSHIN project (funded by the Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology), the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has developed a new Global Spectral Model (GSM) with a high horizontal resolution of about 20km and 60 vertical layers (hereafter called g20km GSMh), which is utilized to evaluate severe weather events in future climate. The 20km GSM will be operational in November 2007 replacing the current GSM with a horizontal resolution of about 60km and 40 vertical layers (hereafter called g60km GSMh). In the present study, we investigate how a model resolution impacts on TC forecasts because this resolution enhancement aims to improve the model's ability to forecast severe weather. Due to the more realistic model topography in higher horizontal resolution, the 20km GSM can give more accurate forecasts of orographic precipitation than the 60km GSM, especially over the area range of heavy precipitation. According to the statistically verified results, the enhancement of horizontal and vertical resolution appears to fairly improve the accuracy of TC intensity forecasts. However, for TC track forecasts, it may be more important to accurately represent large-scale environmental contexts surrounding the TC than to resolve the TC structure itself. In order to clarify resolution impacts on the TC intensity prediction, we categorize the TC intensity forecasts into three stages (development stage, maturation stage and dissipation stage). The results show that the effectiveness of the resolution enhancement is bigger in the development stage and relatively small in the maturation and dissipation stages. For the maturation and dissipation stages, improvement of physical processes seems to be more important than the resolution

  3. Development and Evaluation of Storm Surge Ensemble Forecasting for the Philippines Using JMA Storm Surge Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lapidez, J. P. B.; Tablazon, J. P.; Lagmay, A. M. F. A.; Suarez, J. K. B.; Santiago, J. T.

    2014-12-01

    The Philippines is one of the countries most vulnerable to storm surge. It is located in the North-western Pacific basin which is the most active basin in the planet. An average of 20 tropical cyclones enters the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) every year. The archipelagic nature of the country with regions having gently sloping coasts and shallow bays also contribute to the formation of extreme surges. Last November 2013, storm surge brought by super typhoon Haiyan severely damaged several coastal regions in the Visayan Islands. Haiyan left more than 6 300 casualties and damages amounting to more than $ 2 billion. Extreme storm surge events such as this highlight the need to establish a storm surge early warning system for the country. This study explores the development and evaluation of storm surge ensemble forecasting for the Philippines using the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) storm surge model. 36-hour, 24-hour, and 12-hour tropical cyclone forecasts are used to generate an ensemble storm surge forecast to give the most probable storm surge height at a specific point brought by an incoming tropical cyclone. The result of the storm surge forecast is compared to tide gauge record to evaluate the accuracy. The total time of computation and dissemination of forecast result is also examined to assess the feasibility of using the JMA storm surge model for operational purposes.

  4. Improvement of Atmospheric CO2 Inversion Analysis at JMA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nakamura, T.; Maki, T.; Machida, T.; Matsuda, H.; Sawa, Y.; Niwa, Y.

    2015-12-01

    The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has developed a new inversion system of atmospheric CO2 mole fraction and flux for better understanding of global carbon budget and contribution to global carbon cycle studies. The new system introduces a newly developed on-line atmospheric tracer transport model (GSAM-TM). Its tracer transport process is directly coupled with a low resolution version (TL95) of JMA's operational global numerical weather prediction (NWP) model (JMA_GSM), using mass conservative semi-Lagrangian scheme and Arakawa-Shubert mass flux scheme for vertical convective transportation. It represents mass transportation, mass conservation, and structures of tracer distribution more precisely than JMA's previous transport model (CDTM), which is off-line tracer transport model using semi-Lagrangian scheme and Kuo-based convection scheme with multiplying globally uniform coefficient for mass conservation. The new system also introduces new a priori fluxes for fossil fuel consumption and oceanic CO2 exchange. In this study, we compare CO2 mole fraction field and flux estimates of the new system against that of current annual JMA analysis with CDTM. The new system represents better atmospheric CO2 distribution structure than the current system does especially vertical gradient around tropopause. Due to improvement of fossil fuel CO2 diffusion estimates, analyzed regional budget over Eurasian Continent changed clearly. Budgets for less observation area (South America and Africa) are also changed. Globally averaged atmospheric CO2 budget is not changed significantly. This new system is planned to be operationally implemented in 2016, and we will further improve the CO2 inversion analysis for understanding of carbon cycle.

  5. JMA's regional atmospheric transport model calculations for the WMO technical task team on meteorological analyses for Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident.

    PubMed

    Saito, Kazuo; Shimbori, Toshiki; Draxler, Roland

    2015-01-01

    The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) convened a small technical task team of experts to produce a set of meteorological analyses to drive atmospheric transport, dispersion and deposition models (ATDMs) for the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation's assessment of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (DNPP) accident. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) collaborated with the WMO task team as the regional specialized meteorological center of the country where the accident occurred, and provided its operational 5-km resolution mesoscale (MESO) analysis and its 1-km resolution radar/rain gauge-analyzed precipitation (RAP) data. The JMA's mesoscale tracer transport model was modified to a regional ATDM for radionuclides (RATM), which included newly implemented algorithms for dry deposition, wet scavenging, and gravitational settling of radionuclide aerosol particles. Preliminary and revised calculations of the JMA-RATM were conducted according to the task team's protocol. Verification against Cesium 137 ((137)Cs) deposition measurements and observed air concentration time series showed that the performance of RATM with MESO data was significantly improved by the revisions to the model. The use of RAP data improved the (137)Cs deposition pattern but not the time series of air concentrations at Tokai-mura compared with calculations just using the MESO data. Sensitivity tests of some of the more uncertain parameters were conducted to determine their impacts on ATDM calculations, and the dispersion and deposition of radionuclides on 15 March 2011, the period of some of the largest emissions and deposition to the land areas of Japan. The area with high deposition in the northwest of Fukushima DNPP and the hotspot in the central part of Fukushima prefecture were primarily formed by wet scavenging influenced by the orographic effect of the mountainous area in the west of the Fukushima prefecture.

  6. JMA's regional atmospheric transport model calculations for the WMO technical task team on meteorological analyses for Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident.

    PubMed

    Saito, Kazuo; Shimbori, Toshiki; Draxler, Roland

    2015-01-01

    The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) convened a small technical task team of experts to produce a set of meteorological analyses to drive atmospheric transport, dispersion and deposition models (ATDMs) for the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation's assessment of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (DNPP) accident. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) collaborated with the WMO task team as the regional specialized meteorological center of the country where the accident occurred, and provided its operational 5-km resolution mesoscale (MESO) analysis and its 1-km resolution radar/rain gauge-analyzed precipitation (RAP) data. The JMA's mesoscale tracer transport model was modified to a regional ATDM for radionuclides (RATM), which included newly implemented algorithms for dry deposition, wet scavenging, and gravitational settling of radionuclide aerosol particles. Preliminary and revised calculations of the JMA-RATM were conducted according to the task team's protocol. Verification against Cesium 137 ((137)Cs) deposition measurements and observed air concentration time series showed that the performance of RATM with MESO data was significantly improved by the revisions to the model. The use of RAP data improved the (137)Cs deposition pattern but not the time series of air concentrations at Tokai-mura compared with calculations just using the MESO data. Sensitivity tests of some of the more uncertain parameters were conducted to determine their impacts on ATDM calculations, and the dispersion and deposition of radionuclides on 15 March 2011, the period of some of the largest emissions and deposition to the land areas of Japan. The area with high deposition in the northwest of Fukushima DNPP and the hotspot in the central part of Fukushima prefecture were primarily formed by wet scavenging influenced by the orographic effect of the mountainous area in the west of the Fukushima prefecture. PMID:24703334

  7. Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute-Coupled Prediction System version 1 (JMA/MRI-CPS1) for operational seasonal forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takaya, Yuhei; Yasuda, Tamaki; Fujii, Yosuke; Matsumoto, Satoshi; Soga, Taizo; Mori, Hirotoshi; Hirai, Masayuki; Ishikawa, Ichiro; Sato, Hitoshi; Shimpo, Akihiko; Kamachi, Masafumi; Ose, Tomoaki

    2016-04-01

    This paper describes the operational seasonal prediction system of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), the Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute-Coupled Prediction System version 1 (JMA/MRI-CPS1), which was in operation at JMA during the period between February 2010 and May 2015. The predictive skill of the system was assessed with a set of retrospective seasonal predictions (reforecasts) covering 30 years (1981-2010). JMA/MRI-CPS1 showed reasonable predictive skill for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, comparable to the skills of other state-of-the-art systems. The one-tiered approach adopted in JMA/MRI-CPS1 improved its overall predictive skills for atmospheric predictions over those of the two-tiered approach of the previous uncoupled system. For 3-month predictions with a 1-month lead, JMA/MRI-CPS1 showed statistically significant skills in predicting 500-hPa geopotential height and 2-m temperature in East Asia in most seasons; thus, it is capable of providing skillful seasonal predictions for that region. Furthermore, JMA/MRI-CPS1 was superior overall to the previous system for atmospheric predictions with longer (4-month) lead times. In particular, JMA/MRI-CPS1 was much better able to predict the Asian Summer Monsoon than the previous two-tiered system. This enhanced performance was attributed to the system's ability to represent atmosphere-ocean coupled variability over the Indian Ocean and the western North Pacific from boreal winter to summer following winter El Niño events, which in turn influences the East Asian summer climate through the Pacific-Japan teleconnection pattern. These substantial improvements obtained by using an atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model underpin its success in providing more skillful seasonal forecasts on an operational basis.

  8. Development of a Forecasting and Data Assimilation System for Asian Dust in the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yumimoto, K.; Tanaka, T. Y.; Ogi, A.; Sekiyama, T. T.; Maki, T.; Murakami, H.; Kikuchi, M.; Nagao, T. M.

    2015-12-01

    Mineral dust, a major aerosol during springtime in East Asia, impacts various aspects including social activity, human health, climate and the ocean ecosystem. To mitigate the damage of severe dust storms, it is crucial to develop a forecasting and early warning system for Asian dust. Since 2007, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has taken the lead with 40 international partners to develop a Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System (SDS-WAS). The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) launched a numerical forecasting system for Asian dust in 2004, and completed a major renovation of the system in November 2014. In the renovation, we replaced a general circulation model (the JMA98 GCM) and dust emission scheme (based on wind velocity at 10 m) with new ones (the GSMUV GCM and a friction velocity based emission scheme). A 5-year validation exhibits that the renovation achieves better forecasting score (especially in short range forecast). Our group has resolution improvement (up to ~40 km) and implementation of data assimilation with satellite observations in the upcoming updates. A feasibility study on involving observations from Himawari-8 (JMA's new geostationary meteorological satellite) into the system is also conducted for better forecasting skill and toward robust early warning.

  9. Global Atmospheric Aerosol Modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hendricks, Johannes; Aquila, Valentina; Righi, Mattia

    2012-01-01

    Global aerosol models are used to study the distribution and properties of atmospheric aerosol particles as well as their effects on clouds, atmospheric chemistry, radiation, and climate. The present article provides an overview of the basic concepts of global atmospheric aerosol modeling and shows some examples from a global aerosol simulation. Particular emphasis is placed on the simulation of aerosol particles and their effects within global climate models.

  10. Global ice sheet modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Hughes, T.J.; Fastook, J.L.

    1994-05-01

    The University of Maine conducted this study for Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of a global climate modeling task for site characterization of the potential nuclear waste respository site at Yucca Mountain, NV. The purpose of the study was to develop a global ice sheet dynamics model that will forecast the three-dimensional configuration of global ice sheets for specific climate change scenarios. The objective of the third (final) year of the work was to produce ice sheet data for glaciation scenarios covering the next 100,000 years. This was accomplished using both the map-plane and flowband solutions of our time-dependent, finite-element gridpoint model. The theory and equations used to develop the ice sheet models are presented. Three future scenarios were simulated by the model and results are discussed.

  11. Global Hail Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Werner, A.; Sanderson, M.; Hand, W.; Blyth, A.; Groenemeijer, P.; Kunz, M.; Puskeiler, M.; Saville, G.; Michel, G.

    2012-04-01

    Hail risk models are rare for the insurance industry. This is opposed to the fact that average annual hail losses can be large and hail dominates losses for many motor portfolios worldwide. Insufficient observational data, high spatio-temporal variability and data inhomogenity have hindered creation of credible models so far. In January 2012, a selected group of hail experts met at Willis in London in order to discuss ways to model hail risk at various scales. Discussions aimed at improving our understanding of hail occurrence and severity, and covered recent progress in the understanding of microphysical processes and climatological behaviour and hail vulnerability. The final outcome of the meeting was the formation of a global hail risk model initiative and the launch of a realistic global hail model in order to assess hail loss occurrence and severities for the globe. The following projects will be tackled: Microphysics of Hail and hail severity measures: Understand the physical drivers of hail and hailstone size development in different regions on the globe. Proposed factors include updraft and supercooled liquid water content in the troposphere. What are the thresholds drivers of hail formation around the globe? Hail Climatology: Consider ways to build a realistic global climatological set of hail events based on physical parameters including spatial variations in total availability of moisture, aerosols, among others, and using neural networks. Vulnerability, Exposure, and financial model: Use historical losses and event footprints available in the insurance market to approximate fragility distributions and damage potential for various hail sizes for property, motor, and agricultural business. Propagate uncertainty distributions and consider effects of policy conditions along with aggregating and disaggregating exposure and losses. This presentation provides an overview of ideas and tasks that lead towards a comprehensive global understanding of hail risk for

  12. Global Core Plasma Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gallagher, Dennis L.; Craven, P. D.; Comfort, R. H.

    1999-01-01

    Abstract. The Global Core Plasma Model (GCPM) provides, empirically derived, core plasma density as a function of geomagnetic and solar conditions throughout the inner magnetosphere. It is continuous in value and gradient and is composed of separate models for the ionosphere, the plasmasphere, the plasmapause, the trough, and the polar cap. The relative composition of plasmaspheric H+, He+, and O+ is included in the GCPM. A blunt plasmaspheric bulge and rotation of the bulge with changing geomagnetic conditions is included. The GCPM is an amalgam of density models, intended to serve as a framework for continued improvement as new measurements become available and are used to characterize core plasma density, composition, and temperature.

  13. Global Core Plasma Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gallagher, Dennis L.; Craven, Paul D.; Comfort, Richard H.

    1999-01-01

    Over 40 years of ground and spacecraft plasmaspheric measurements have resulted in many statistical descriptions of plasmaspheric properties. In some cases, these properties have been represented as analytical descriptions that are valid for specific regions or conditions. For the most part, what has not been done is to extend regional empirical descriptions or models to the plasmasphere as a whole. In contrast, many related investigations depend on the use of representative plasmaspheric conditions throughout the inner magnetosphere. Wave propagation, involving the transport of energy through the magnetosphere, is strongly affected by thermal plasma density and its composition. Ring current collisional and wave particle losses also strongly depend on these quantities. Plasmaspheric also plays a secondary role in influencing radio signals from the Global Positioning System satellites. The Global Core Plasma Model (GCPM) is an attempt to assimilate previous empirical evidence and regional models for plasmaspheric density into a continuous, smooth model of thermal plasma density in the inner magnetosphere. In that spirit, the International Reference Ionosphere is currently used to complete the low altitude description of density and composition in the model. The models and measurements on which the GCPM is currently based and its relationship to IRI will be discussed.

  14. Global Energy Futures Model

    2004-01-01

    The Global Energy Futures Model (GEFM) is a demand-based, gross domestic product (GDP)-driven, dynamic simulation tool that provides an integrated framework to model key aspects of energy, nuclear-materials storage and disposition, environmental effluents from fossil and non fossil energy and global nuclear-materials management. Based entirely on public source data, it links oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear and renewable energy dynamically to greenhouse-gas emissions and 13 other measures of environmental impact. It includes historical data frommore » 1990 to 2000, is benchmarked to the DOE/EIA/IEO 2002 [5] Reference Case for 2000 to 2020, and extrapolates energy demand through the year 2050. The GEFM is globally integrated, and breaks out five regions of the world: United States of America (USA), the Peoples Republic of China (China), the former Soviet Union (FSU), the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) nations excluding the USA (other industrialized countries), and the rest of the world (ROW) (essentially the developing world). The GEFM allows the user to examine a very wide range of what ir scenarios through 2050 and to view the potential effects across widely dispersed, but interrelated areas. The authors believe that this high-level learning tool will help to stimulate public policy debate on energy, environment, economic and national security issues.« less

  15. Model predicts global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wainger, Lisa A.

    Global greenhouse warming will be clearly identifiable by the 1990s, according to eight scientists who have been studying climate changes using computer models. Researchers at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, say that by the 2010s, most of the globe will be experiencing “substantial” warming. The level of warming will depend on amounts of trace gases, or greenhouse gases, in the atmosphere.Predictions for the next 70 years are based on computer simulations of Earth's climate. In three runs of the model, James Hansen and his colleagues looked at the effects of changing amounts of atmospheric gases with time.

  16. The Global Flood Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williams, P.; Huddelston, M.; Michel, G.; Thompson, S.; Heynert, K.; Pickering, C.; Abbott Donnelly, I.; Fewtrell, T.; Galy, H.; Sperna Weiland, F.; Winsemius, H.; Weerts, A.; Nixon, S.; Davies, P.; Schiferli, D.

    2012-04-01

    Recently, a Global Flood Model (GFM) initiative has been proposed by Willis, UK Met Office, Esri, Deltares and IBM. The idea is to create a global community platform that enables better understanding of the complexities of flood risk assessment to better support the decisions, education and communication needed to mitigate flood risk. The GFM will provide tools for assessing the risk of floods, for devising mitigation strategies such as land-use changes and infrastructure improvements, and for enabling effective pre- and post-flood event response. The GFM combines humanitarian and commercial motives. It will benefit: - The public, seeking to preserve personal safety and property; - State and local governments, seeking to safeguard economic activity, and improve resilience; - NGOs, similarly seeking to respond proactively to flood events; - The insurance sector, seeking to understand and price flood risk; - Large corporations, seeking to protect global operations and supply chains. The GFM is an integrated and transparent set of modules, each composed of models and data. For each module, there are two core elements: a live "reference version" (a worked example) and a framework of specifications, which will allow development of alternative versions. In the future, users will be able to work with the reference version or substitute their own models and data. If these meet the specification for the relevant module, they will interoperate with the rest of the GFM. Some "crowd-sourced" modules could even be accredited and published to the wider GFM community. Our intent is to build on existing public, private and academic work, improve local adoption, and stimulate the development of multiple - but compatible - alternatives, so strengthening mankind's ability to manage flood impacts. The GFM is being developed and managed by a non-profit organization created for the purpose. The business model will be inspired from open source software (eg Linux): - for non-profit usage

  17. Global Volcano Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sparks, R. S. J.; Loughlin, S. C.; Cottrell, E.; Valentine, G.; Newhall, C.; Jolly, G.; Papale, P.; Takarada, S.; Crosweller, S.; Nayembil, M.; Arora, B.; Lowndes, J.; Connor, C.; Eichelberger, J.; Nadim, F.; Smolka, A.; Michel, G.; Muir-Wood, R.; Horwell, C.

    2012-04-01

    Over 600 million people live close enough to active volcanoes to be affected when they erupt. Volcanic eruptions cause loss of life, significant economic losses and severe disruption to people's lives, as highlighted by the recent eruption of Mount Merapi in Indonesia. The eruption of Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland in 2010 illustrated the potential of even small eruptions to have major impact on the modern world through disruption of complex critical infrastructure and business. The effects in the developing world on economic growth and development can be severe. There is evidence that large eruptions can cause a change in the earth's climate for several years afterwards. Aside from meteor impact and possibly an extreme solar event, very large magnitude explosive volcanic eruptions may be the only natural hazard that could cause a global catastrophe. GVM is a growing international collaboration that aims to create a sustainable, accessible information platform on volcanic hazard and risk. We are designing and developing an integrated database system of volcanic hazards, vulnerability and exposure with internationally agreed metadata standards. GVM will establish methodologies for analysis of the data (eg vulnerability indices) to inform risk assessment, develop complementary hazards models and create relevant hazards and risk assessment tools. GVM will develop the capability to anticipate future volcanism and its consequences. NERC is funding the start-up of this initiative for three years from November 2011. GVM builds directly on the VOGRIPA project started as part of the GRIP (Global Risk Identification Programme) in 2004 under the auspices of the World Bank and UN. Major international initiatives and partners such as the Smithsonian Institution - Global Volcanism Program, State University of New York at Buffalo - VHub, Earth Observatory of Singapore - WOVOdat and many others underpin GVM.

  18. Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) is an integrated assessment model that links the world's energy, agriculture and land use systems with a climate model. The model is designed to assess various climate change policies and technology strategies for the globe over long tim...

  19. Global/Local Dynamic Models

    SciTech Connect

    Pfeffer, A; Das, S; Lawless, D; Ng, B

    2006-10-10

    Many dynamic systems involve a number of entities that are largely independent of each other but interact with each other via a subset of state variables. We present global/local dynamic models (GLDMs) to capture these kinds of systems. In a GLDM, the state of an entity is decomposed into a globally influenced state that depends on other entities, and a locally influenced state that depends only on the entity itself. We present an inference algorithm for GLDMs called global/local particle filtering, that introduces the principle of reasoning globally about global dynamics and locally about local dynamics. We have applied GLDMs to an asymmetric urban warfare environment, in which enemy units form teams to attack important targets, and the task is to detect such teams as they form. Experimental results for this application show that global/local particle filtering outperforms ordinary particle filtering and factored particle filtering.

  20. Solicited abstract: Global hydrological modeling and models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Chong-Yu

    2010-05-01

    The origins of rainfall-runoff modeling in the broad sense can be found in the middle of the 19th century arising in response to three types of engineering problems: (1) urban sewer design, (2) land reclamation drainage systems design, and (3) reservoir spillway design. Since then numerous empirical, conceptual and physically-based models are developed including event based models using unit hydrograph concept, Nash's linear reservoir models, HBV model, TOPMODEL, SHE model, etc. From the late 1980s, the evolution of global and continental-scale hydrology has placed new demands on hydrologic modellers. The macro-scale hydrological (global and regional scale) models were developed on the basis of the following motivations (Arenll, 1999). First, for a variety of operational and planning purposes, water resource managers responsible for large regions need to estimate the spatial variability of resources over large areas, at a spatial resolution finer than can be provided by observed data alone. Second, hydrologists and water managers are interested in the effects of land-use and climate variability and change over a large geographic domain. Third, there is an increasing need of using hydrologic models as a base to estimate point and non-point sources of pollution loading to streams. Fourth, hydrologists and atmospheric modellers have perceived weaknesses in the representation of hydrological processes in regional and global climate models, and developed global hydrological models to overcome the weaknesses of global climate models. Considerable progress in the development and application of global hydrological models has been achieved to date, however, large uncertainties still exist considering the model structure including large scale flow routing, parameterization, input data, etc. This presentation will focus on the global hydrological models, and the discussion includes (1) types of global hydrological models, (2) procedure of global hydrological model development

  1. Performance of JMA Earthquake Early Warning for the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake (Mw9.0)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoshiba, M.; Wakayama, A.; Ishigaki, Y.; Doi, K.

    2011-12-01

    This presentation outlines the Earthquake Early Warning of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) for the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake (Mw9.0). EEW has been operational nationwide in Japan by JMA since October, 2007. For JMA EEW, the hypocenter is determined by a combination of several techniques, using approximately 1,100 stations from the JMA network and the Hi-net network of NIED; magnitude is mainly from maximum displacement amplitudes. JMA EEWs are updated as available data increases with elapsed time. Accordingly EEWs are issued repeatedly with improving accuracy for a single earthquake. JMA EEWs are divided into two grades depending on the expected intensities. The JMA intensity scale is based on instrumental measurements in which not only the amplitude but also the frequency and duration of the shaking are considered. The 10-degree JMA intensity scale rounds off the instrumental intensity value to the integer. Intensities of 5 and 6 are divided into two degrees, namely 5-lower, 5-upper, 6-lower and 6-upper, respectively. Intensity 1 corresponds to ground motion that people can barely detect, and 7 is the upper limit. JMA EEWs are announced to general public when intensity 5-lower (or greater) is expected. The JMA EEW system was triggered for the Mw 9.0 earthquake when station OURI (138km from the epicenter) detected the initial P wave at 14:46:40.2 (Japan Standard Time). The first EEW, the first of 15 announcements, was issued 5.4 s later. The waveform started with small amplitude, which was comparable to noise level for displacement. The small amplitude does not indicate that the initial rupture of the Mw 9.0 event is large, and does not suggest a large magnitude event. By the fourth EEW, 8.6 s after the first trigger, the expected intensity exceeded the criteria of the warning to the general public. JMA issued the fourth EEW announcements to the general public of the Tohoku district, and then the warning was automatically broadcast

  2. Class Room Exercises Using JMA-59-Type Seismograms for Earthquake Study at High-School Level

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Okamoto, Y.; Furuta, S.; Hirota, N.

    2013-12-01

    The JMA-59-type electromagnetic seismograph was the standard seismograph for routine observations by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) from the 1960's to the 1990's. Some features of those seismograms include 1) displacement wave records (electrically integrated from a velocity output by a moving-coil-type sensor), 2) ink records on paper (analog recording with time marks), 3) continuous drum recording for 12 h, and 4) lengthy operation time over several decades. However, the digital revolution in recording systems during the 1990's made these analog features obsolete, and their abundant and bulky paper-based records were stacked and sometimes disregarded in the library of every observatory. Interestingly, from an educational aspect, the disadvantages of these old-fashioned systems become highly advantageous for educational or outreach purposes. The updated digital instrument is essentially a 'black-box,' not revealing its internal mechanisms and being too fast for observing its signal processes. While the old seismometers and recording systems have been disposed of long since, stacks of analog seismograms continue to languish in observatories' back rooms. In our study, we develop some classroom exercises for studying earthquakes at the mid- to high-school level using these analog seismograms. These exercises include 1) reading the features of seismic records, 2) measuring the S-P time, 3) converting the hypocentral distance from Omori's distance formula, 4) locating the epicenter/hypocenter using the S-P times of surrounding stations, and 5) estimating earthquake magnitude using the Tsuboi's magnitude formula. For this calculation we developed a 'nomogram'--a graphical paper calculator created using a Python-based freeware tool named 'PyNomo.' We tested many seismograms and established the following rules: 1) shallow earthquakes are appropriate for using the Tsuboi's magnitude formula; 2) there is no saturation at peak amplitude; 3) seismograms make it easy to

  3. Modelling the global coastal ocean.

    PubMed

    Holt, Jason; Harle, James; Proctor, Roger; Michel, Sylvain; Ashworth, Mike; Batstone, Crispian; Allen, Icarus; Holmes, Robert; Smyth, Tim; Haines, Keith; Bretherton, Dan; Smith, Gregory

    2009-03-13

    Shelf and coastal seas are regions of exceptionally high biological productivity, high rates of biogeochemical cycling and immense socio-economic importance. They are, however, poorly represented by the present generation of Earth system models, both in terms of resolution and process representation. Hence, these models cannot be used to elucidate the role of the coastal ocean in global biogeochemical cycles and the effects global change (both direct anthropogenic and climatic) are having on them. Here, we present a system for simulating all the coastal regions around the world (the Global Coastal Ocean Modelling System) in a systematic and practical fashion. It is based on automatically generating multiple nested model domains, using the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Coastal Ocean Modelling System coupled to the European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model. Preliminary results from the system are presented. These demonstrate the viability of the concept, and we discuss the prospects for using the system to explore key areas of global change in shelf seas, such as their role in the carbon cycle and climate change effects on fisheries. PMID:19087928

  4. Global Reference Atmosphere Model (GRAM)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Woodrum, A. W.

    1989-01-01

    GRAM series of four-dimensional atmospheric model validated by years of data. GRAM program, still available. More current are Gram 86, which includes atmospheric data from 1986 and runs on DEC VAX, and GRAM 88, which runs on IBM 3084. Program generates altitude profiles of atmospheric parameters along any simulated trajectory through atmosphere, and also useful for global circulation and diffusion studies.

  5. Global scale groundwater flow model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sutanudjaja, Edwin; de Graaf, Inge; van Beek, Ludovicus; Bierkens, Marc

    2013-04-01

    As the world's largest accessible source of freshwater, groundwater plays vital role in satisfying the basic needs of human society. It serves as a primary source of drinking water and supplies water for agricultural and industrial activities. During times of drought, groundwater sustains water flows in streams, rivers, lakes and wetlands, and thus supports ecosystem habitat and biodiversity, while its large natural storage provides a buffer against water shortages. Yet, the current generation of global scale hydrological models does not include a groundwater flow component that is a crucial part of the hydrological cycle and allows the simulation of groundwater head dynamics. In this study we present a steady-state MODFLOW (McDonald and Harbaugh, 1988) groundwater model on the global scale at 5 arc-minutes resolution. Aquifer schematization and properties of this groundwater model were developed from available global lithological model (e.g. Dürr et al., 2005; Gleeson et al., 2010; Hartmann and Moorsdorff, in press). We force the groundwtaer model with the output from the large-scale hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB (van Beek et al., 2011), specifically the long term net groundwater recharge and average surface water levels derived from routed channel discharge. We validated calculated groundwater heads and depths with available head observations, from different regions, including the North and South America and Western Europe. Our results show that it is feasible to build a relatively simple global scale groundwater model using existing information, and estimate water table depths within acceptable accuracy in many parts of the world.

  6. Global Modelling in the 1980s.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Richardson, John M., Jr.

    1981-01-01

    Characterizes global modelling as addressing questions of human survival and well-being. Briefly describes models in three categories: the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis conference models, global international economic models, and politically-oriented models. Suggests that global models in the 80s work toward shaping the…

  7. Updating Martin's global extinction model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gillespie, Richard

    2008-12-01

    Australia has been cited as a weak link in anthropogenic models of megafauna extinction, but recent work suggests instead that the evidence for rapid extinction shortly after human arrival is robust. The global model is revisited, based on the contention that late Pleistocene megafauna extinctions took place rapidly on islands, and some islands (such as Australia and the Americas) are much larger than others. Modern dating methods are increasingly able to refine chronologies, and careful scrutiny suggests that hundreds of dates should be deleted from archives. An updated summary of results from New Zealand, North America and Australia is presented, with a brief discussion on why temperate refugia offering protection from climate change ultimately did not work, strongly supporting the global extinction hypothesis pioneered by Paul Martin.

  8. A Martian global groundwater model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Howard, Alan D.

    1991-01-01

    A global groundwater flow model was constructed for Mars to study hydrologic response under a variety of scenarios, improving and extending earlier simple cross sectional models. The model is capable of treating both steady state and transient flow as well as permeability that is anisotropic in the horizontal dimensions. A single near surface confining layer may be included (representing in these simulations a coherent permafrost layer). Furthermore, in unconfined flow, locations of complete saturation and seepage are determined. The flow model assumes that groundwater gradients are sufficiently low that DuPuit conditions are satisfied and the flow component perpendicular to the ground surface is negligible. The flow equations were solved using a finite difference method employing 10 deg spacing of latitude and longitude.

  9. GEM - The Global Earthquake Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smolka, A.

    2009-04-01

    Over 500,000 people died in the last decade due to earthquakes and tsunamis, mostly in the developing world, where the risk is increasing due to rapid population growth. In many seismic regions, no hazard and risk models exist, and even where models do exist, they are intelligible only by experts, or available only for commercial purposes. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) answers the need for an openly accessible risk management tool. GEM is an internationally sanctioned public private partnership initiated by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) which will establish an authoritative standard for calculating and communicating earthquake hazard and risk, and will be designed to serve as the critical instrument to support decisions and actions that reduce earthquake losses worldwide. GEM will integrate developments on the forefront of scientific and engineering knowledge of earthquakes, at global, regional and local scale. The work is organized in three modules: hazard, risk, and socio-economic impact. The hazard module calculates probabilities of earthquake occurrence and resulting shaking at any given location. The risk module calculates fatalities, injuries, and damage based on expected shaking, building vulnerability, and the distribution of population and of exposed values and facilities. The socio-economic impact module delivers tools for making educated decisions to mitigate and manage risk. GEM will be a versatile online tool, with open source code and a map-based graphical interface. The underlying data will be open wherever possible, and its modular input and output will be adapted to multiple user groups: scientists and engineers, risk managers and decision makers in the public and private sectors, and the public-at- large. GEM will be the first global model for seismic risk assessment at a national and regional scale, and aims to achieve broad scientific participation and independence. Its development will occur in a

  10. Lessons Learned from Eight Years' Experience of Actual Operation, and Future Prospects of JMA Earthquake Early Warning System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoshiba, M.; Nishimae, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Since 2007, experiences of actual operation of EEW have been gained by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). During this period, we have learned lessons from many M6- and M7-class earthquakes, and the Mw9.0 Tohoku earthquake. During the Mw9.0 Tohoku earthquake, JMA system functioned well: it issued a warning message more than 15 s before strong ground shaking in the Tohoku district (relatively near distance from the epicenter). However, it was not perfect: in addition to the problem of large extent of fault rupture, some false warning messages were issued due to the confusion of the system because of simultaneous multiple aftershocks which occurred at the wide rupture area. To address the problems, JMA will introduce two new methods into the operational system this year to start their tests, aiming at practical operation within a couple of years. One is Integrated Particle Filter (IPF) method, which is an integrated algorithm of multiple hypocenter determination techniques with Bayesian estimation, in which amplitude information is also used for hypocenter determination. The other is Propagation of Local Undamped Motion (PLUM) method, in which warning message is issued when strong ground shaking is detected at nearby stations around the target site (e.g., within 30 km). Here, hypocenter and magnitude are not required in PLUM. Aiming at application for several years later, we are investigating a new approach, in which current wavefield is estimated in real time, and then future wavefield is predicted time evolutionally from the current situation using physics of wave propagation. Here, hypocenter and magnitude are not necessarily required, but real-time observation of ground shaking is necessary. JMA also plans to predict long period ground motion (up to 8 s) with the EEW system for earthquake damage mitigation in high-rise buildings. Its test will start using the operational system in the near future.

  11. A global HMX decomposition model

    SciTech Connect

    Hobbs, M.L.

    1996-12-01

    HMX (octahydro-1,3,5,7-tetranitro-1,3,5,7-tetrazocine) decomposes by competing reaction pathways to form various condensed and gas-phase intermediate and final products. Gas formation is related to the development of nonuniform porosity and high specific surface areas prior to ignition in cookoff events. Such thermal damage enhances shock sensitivity and favors self-supported accelerated burning. The extent of HMX decomposition in highly confined cookoff experiments remains a major unsolved experimental and modeling problem. The present work is directed at determination of global HMX kinetics useful for predicting the elapsed time to thermal runaway (ignition) and the extent of decomposition at ignition. Kinetic rate constants for a six step engineering based global mechanism were obtained using gas formation rates measured by Behrens at Sandia National Laboratories with his Simultaneous Modulated Beam Mass Spectrometer (STMBMS) experimental apparatus. The six step global mechanism includes competition between light gas (H[sub 2]Awe, HCN, CO, H[sub 2]CO, NO, N[sub 2]Awe) and heavy gas (C[sub 2]H[sub 6]N[sub 2]Awe and C[sub 4]H[sub 10]N0[sub 2]) formation with zero order sublimation of HMX and the mononitroso analog of HMX (mn-HMX), C[sub 4]H[sub 8]N[sub 8]Awe[sub 7]. The global mechanism was applied to the highly confined, One Dimensional Time to eXplosion (ODTX) experiment and hot cell experiments by suppressing the sublimation of HMX and mn-HMX. An additional gas-phase reaction was also included to account for the gas-phase reaction of N[sub 2]Awe with H[sub 2]CO. Predictions compare adequately to the STMBMS data, ODTX data, and hot cell data. Deficiencies in the model and future directions are discussed.

  12. Modeling the global mercury cycle

    SciTech Connect

    Hudson, R.J.M. |

    1995-12-01

    A model of the global Hg cycle is presented and applied to analyze modern Hg budgets and the link between the anthropogenic Hg emissions and historical changes in deposition as recorded in lake sediments and bogs. Terrestrial systems appear to have been the principal sink of anthropogenic Hg. However, transport into the ocean interior via mixing and scavenging is also a significant sink of Hg and likely has limited any anthropogenically-derived increase in Hg volatilization from the surface ocean to no more than 50% above natural levels. We also consider how both the increase in air pollutants during the industrial era and their recent decrease in North America may have affected atmospheric Hg scavenging and the resulting records of Hg deposition rates in lake and bog sediments.

  13. Aerosol Modeling for the Global Model Initiative

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Weisenstein, Debra K.; Ko, Malcolm K. W.

    2001-01-01

    The goal of this project is to develop an aerosol module to be used within the framework of the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI). The model development work will be preformed jointly by the University of Michigan and AER, using existing aerosol models at the two institutions as starting points. The GMI aerosol model will be tested, evaluated against observations, and then applied to assessment of the effects of aircraft sulfur emissions as needed by the NASA Subsonic Assessment in 2001. The work includes the following tasks: 1. Implementation of the sulfur cycle within GMI, including sources, sinks, and aqueous conversion of sulfur. Aerosol modules will be added as they are developed and the GMI schedule permits. 2. Addition of aerosol types other than sulfate particles, including dust, soot, organic carbon, and black carbon. 3. Development of new and more efficient parameterizations for treating sulfate aerosol nucleation, condensation, and coagulation among different particle sizes and types.

  14. A Global Climate Model for Instruction.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burt, James E.

    This paper describes a simple global climate model useful in a freshman or sophomore level course in climatology. There are three parts to the paper. The first part describes the model, which is a global model of surface air temperature averaged over latitude and longitude. Samples of the types of calculations performed in the model are provided.…

  15. Exogenous model of global tectonics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kalenda, Pavel; Wandrol, Ivo; Kopf, Tomáš; Frydrýšek, Karel; Neumann, Libor; Procházka, Václav; Ostřihanský, Lubor

    2014-05-01

    We present a new model of lithosphere-plates movement based on three pillars: 1) The thermoelastic wave, which was described first of all by Berger (1975), 2) The ratcheting mechanism, which was described for asphalt buckling and/or lithosphere evolution by J. Croll (2006, 2007), and 3) the solar irradiance energy, as quantified by IPCC (2007). The thermal wave, which is generated by solar irradiance on the surface, penetrates into depth, and subsurface rocks are expanded. The deformation spreads to the surrounding of expanded rocks and to the depths. Such elastic wave is called thermoelastic wave and has dominant periods of one day, one year, (short) climate periods (AMO, PDO and other oscillations), Milankovich periods (14000 - 120000 years) and longer climate periods. This deformation concerns prevalently the continental lithosphere and not lithosphere covered by ocean or thick layers of unconsolidated sediments. This non-uniform deformation of continental and/or oceanic plates leads to opening of the cracks, faults and/or rifts during the period of continental contraction. The ratchets can fulfil such free spaces and openings. During the next period of continental expansion, such faults, cracks or rifts cannot reach the same positions as before, which leads to increasing stress, which accumulates on the discontinuities especially between continental and oceanic crust (Kalenda et al. 2012). Such process can accumulate a portion of the solar energy reaching the solid surface rocks. Then we can explain the whole energy budget of seismic and volcanic activity (1022 J/year) only by solar irradiance. Only 4 % of total solar irradiance of the Earth's surface (1024 J/year) is enough to cover all budget of lithosphere plate movement. No other resources are necessary. Because this new model of the lithosphere plate movement is not accepted at that moment by the mainstream, it is necessary to publish it in the section Geoethics, as a one of the examples of the behaviour

  16. Evaluation of Cloud Microphysics in JMA-NHM Simulations Using Bin or Bulk Microphysical Schemes through Comparison with Cloud Radar Observations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Iguchi, Takamichi; Nakajima, Teruyuki; Khain, Alexander P.; Saito, Kazuo; Takemura, Toshihiko; Okamoto, Hajime; Nishizawa, Tomoaki; Tao, Wei-Kuo

    2012-01-01

    Numerical weather prediction (NWP) simulations using the Japan Meteorological Agency NonhydrostaticModel (JMA-NHM) are conducted for three precipitation events observed by shipborne or spaceborneW-band cloud radars. Spectral bin and single-moment bulk cloud microphysics schemes are employed separatelyfor an intercomparative study. A radar product simulator that is compatible with both microphysicsschemes is developed to enable a direct comparison between simulation and observation with respect to theequivalent radar reflectivity factor Ze, Doppler velocity (DV), and path-integrated attenuation (PIA). Ingeneral, the bin model simulation shows better agreement with the observed data than the bulk modelsimulation. The correction of the terminal fall velocities of snowflakes using those of hail further improves theresult of the bin model simulation. The results indicate that there are substantial uncertainties in the masssizeand sizeterminal fall velocity relations of snowflakes or in the calculation of terminal fall velocity of snowaloft. For the bulk microphysics, the overestimation of Ze is observed as a result of a significant predominanceof snow over cloud ice due to substantial deposition growth directly to snow. The DV comparison shows thata correction for the fall velocity of hydrometeors considering a change of particle size should be introducedeven in single-moment bulk cloud microphysics.

  17. Web-Based Delivery System for Disaster Prevention Information Using a New Jma Dpi Xml Format and Amedas Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nishio, M.; Mori, M.

    2012-07-01

    The Automated Meteorological Data Acquisition System (AMeDAS) Data is used along with compound disaster information for a geographic information system (GIS) by integration into the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) disaster prevention information XML data. A JMA XML format is a next generation format that contains weather warnings, tsunami warnings, and earthquake information, etc. However, it is not possible to process it by reading disaster prevention information XML Data and AMeDAS Data directly to the GIS system. Therefore, development of a program that converts the data structure is important to consolidate a variety of disaster prevention information on the GIS system. Information on escape routes and evacuation sites, etc. were given as points for regional meteorological observation forecasts using AMeDAS Data by disaster prevention information XML data and integrating it where the disaster was generated, giving a range of expansion of damage and a damage level. There are two main aims; the first is to deliver these compound data of disaster prevention information XML data and AMeDAS Data via the Internet. The second aim is to provide GIS files (shapefile format) of these data to such as local governments for their individual analysis. This was furthermore confirmed to enable the construction of a system using WebGIS (Google Maps) and Open Source Software GIS to monitor disaster information at low cost.

  18. Modelling MIZ dynamics in a global model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rynders, Stefanie; Aksenov, Yevgeny; Feltham, Daniel; Nurser, George; Naveira Garabato, Alberto

    2016-04-01

    Exposure of large, previously ice-covered areas of the Arctic Ocean to the wind and surface ocean waves results in the Arctic pack ice cover becoming more fragmented and mobile, with large regions of ice cover evolving into the Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ). The need for better climate predictions, along with growing economic activity in the Polar Oceans, necessitates climate and forecasting models that can simulate fragmented sea ice with a greater fidelity. Current models are not fully fit for the purpose, since they neither model surface ocean waves in the MIZ, nor account for the effect of floe fragmentation on drag, nor include sea ice rheology that represents both the now thinner pack ice and MIZ ice dynamics. All these processes affect the momentum transfer to the ocean. We present initial results from a global ocean model NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) coupled to the Los Alamos sea ice model CICE. The model setup implements a novel rheological formulation for sea ice dynamics, accounting for ice floe collisions, thus offering a seamless framework for pack ice and MIZ simulations. The effect of surface waves on ice motion is included through wave pressure and the turbulent kinetic energy of ice floes. In the multidecadal model integrations we examine MIZ and basin scale sea ice and oceanic responses to the changes in ice dynamics. We analyse model sensitivities and attribute them to key sea ice and ocean dynamical mechanisms. The results suggest that the effect of the new ice rheology is confined to the MIZ. However with the current increase in summer MIZ area, which is projected to continue and may become the dominant type of sea ice in the Arctic, we argue that the effects of the combined sea ice rheology will be noticeable in large areas of the Arctic Ocean, affecting sea ice and ocean. With this study we assert that to make more accurate sea ice predictions in the changing Arctic, models need to include MIZ dynamics and physics.

  19. Sensitivity of the modelled deposition of Caesium-137 from the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant to the wet deposition parameterisation in NAME.

    PubMed

    Leadbetter, Susan J; Hort, Matthew C; Jones, Andrew R; Webster, Helen N; Draxler, Roland R

    2015-01-01

    This paper describes an investigation into the impact of different meteorological data sets and different wet scavenging coefficients on the model predictions of radionuclide deposits following the accident at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant in March 2011. Three separate operational meteorological data sets, the UK Met Office global meteorology, the ECMWF global meteorology and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) mesoscale meteorology as well as radar rainfall analyses from JMA were all used as inputs to the UK Met Office's dispersion model NAME (the Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment). The model predictions of Caesium-137 deposits based on these meteorological models all showed good agreement with observations of deposits made in eastern Japan with correlation coefficients ranging from 0.44 to 0.80. Unexpectedly the NAME run using radar rainfall data had a lower correlation coefficient (R = 0.66), when compared to observations, than the run using the JMA mesoscale model rainfall (R = 0.76) or the run using ECMWF met data (R = 0.80). Additionally the impact of modifying the wet scavenging coefficients used in the parameterisation of wet deposition was investigated. The results showed that modifying the scavenging parameters had a similar impact to modifying the driving meteorology on the rank calculated from comparing the modelled and observed deposition. PMID:24745690

  20. Sensitivity of the modelled deposition of Caesium-137 from the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant to the wet deposition parameterisation in NAME.

    PubMed

    Leadbetter, Susan J; Hort, Matthew C; Jones, Andrew R; Webster, Helen N; Draxler, Roland R

    2015-01-01

    This paper describes an investigation into the impact of different meteorological data sets and different wet scavenging coefficients on the model predictions of radionuclide deposits following the accident at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant in March 2011. Three separate operational meteorological data sets, the UK Met Office global meteorology, the ECMWF global meteorology and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) mesoscale meteorology as well as radar rainfall analyses from JMA were all used as inputs to the UK Met Office's dispersion model NAME (the Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment). The model predictions of Caesium-137 deposits based on these meteorological models all showed good agreement with observations of deposits made in eastern Japan with correlation coefficients ranging from 0.44 to 0.80. Unexpectedly the NAME run using radar rainfall data had a lower correlation coefficient (R = 0.66), when compared to observations, than the run using the JMA mesoscale model rainfall (R = 0.76) or the run using ECMWF met data (R = 0.80). Additionally the impact of modifying the wet scavenging coefficients used in the parameterisation of wet deposition was investigated. The results showed that modifying the scavenging parameters had a similar impact to modifying the driving meteorology on the rank calculated from comparing the modelled and observed deposition.

  1. A model of global net ecosystem production

    SciTech Connect

    Potter, C.S.; Matson, P.A. ); Field, C.B.; Randerson, J. ); Vitousek, P.M.; Mooney, H.A. )

    1993-06-01

    We present an ecosystem modeling approach to resolve global climate and edaphic controls on seasonal NEP patterns. Global remote sensing, climate and land surface data sets are used as inputs to drive a terrestrial carbon cycle model at 1[degrees]lat/lon resolution. monthly net primary productivity (NPP) is calculated using surface radiation and NDVI to determine photosynthesis, which is subsequently adjusted by temperature, water and nitrogen stress factors. Total nitrogen availability is coupled to net mineralization rates from litter soil carbon pools. Soil respiration and NPP balance one another globally at around 60 Gt C yr[sup [minus]1]. The seasonal amplitude of global NEP is 1.2 Gt C. Although substantial month-to-month variation is observed for tropical forest areas, seasonal amplitude is driven globally by boreal and temperate forest ecosystems between 650 and 30[degrees] N latitude.

  2. Efficient Global Aerodynamic Modeling from Flight Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Morelli, Eugene A.

    2012-01-01

    A method for identifying global aerodynamic models from flight data in an efficient manner is explained and demonstrated. A novel experiment design technique was used to obtain dynamic flight data over a range of flight conditions with a single flight maneuver. Multivariate polynomials and polynomial splines were used with orthogonalization techniques and statistical modeling metrics to synthesize global nonlinear aerodynamic models directly and completely from flight data alone. Simulation data and flight data from a subscale twin-engine jet transport aircraft were used to demonstrate the techniques. Results showed that global multivariate nonlinear aerodynamic dependencies could be accurately identified using flight data from a single maneuver. Flight-derived global aerodynamic model structures, model parameter estimates, and associated uncertainties were provided for all six nondimensional force and moment coefficients for the test aircraft. These models were combined with a propulsion model identified from engine ground test data to produce a high-fidelity nonlinear flight simulation very efficiently. Prediction testing using a multi-axis maneuver showed that the identified global model accurately predicted aircraft responses.

  3. Model for learning global properties

    SciTech Connect

    Eitner, P.; Kochen, M.

    1981-01-01

    The authors report developments in a mathematical model of cognitive learning. The model describes the processes of formation, testing and revision of hypotheses held by a learner attempting to understand an environment. The fundamental assumption is that learning proceeds by a feedback cycle where hypotheses are tested for validity against external reality and reweighted according to the outcome. A particular application of this model to the case of mechanical beetle, mapping a geometrical environment, yields results of interest in artificial intelligence and robot design including results on the computability of several geometrical predicates. 11 references.

  4. Dynamical Downscaling Technique for Global Climate Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoshimura, K.; Kanamitsu, M.

    2007-12-01

    Aiming at producing higher resolution global reanalysis datasets from coarse 200 km resolution reanalysis, a global version of the dynamical downscaling using a global spectral model (GSM) is developed. A variant of spectral nudging, the scale-selective bias correction (SSBC) developed for regional models is modified in the following manner to adapt it to the global domain; 1) temperature is nudged in addition to the zonal and meridional components of winds, and 2) humidity is excluded from any nudging or correction. The downscaling was performed using T248L28 (about 50 km resolution) global model for 2001, driven by NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 2 (T62L28 resolution). Evaluation with high-resolution observations showed that the monthly averaged surface temperature and daily variation of precipitation become better than the Reanalysis over the globe. It was found that humidity plays a significant role for a significant positive bias of global precipitation in the downscaled simulation. Over North America, surface wind speed and temperature become better, and over Japan, the diurnal pattern of surface temperature is much improved, as are wind speed and precipitation, but not humidity. This study suggests that the global downscaling is a viable and economical method to obtain high- resolution reanalysis without re-running a very expensive high-resolution full data assimilation.

  5. A high resolution global scale groundwater model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Graaf, I. E.; Sutanudjaja, E.; Van Beek, L. P.; Bierkens, M. F.

    2013-12-01

    As the world's largest accessible source of freshwater, groundwater plays a vital role in satisfying the basic needs of human society. It serves as a primary source of drinking water and also supplies water for agricultural and industrial activities. During times of drought, the large natural groundwater storage provides a buffer against water shortage and sustains flows to rivers and wetlands, supporting ecosystem habitats and biodiversity. Yet, the current generation of global scale hydrological models (GHMs) do not include a groundwater flow component, although it is a crucial part of the hydrological cycle. Thus, a realistic physical representation of the groundwater system that allows for the simulation of groundwater head dynamics and lateral flows is essential for GHMs that increasingly run at finer resolution. In this study we present a transient global groundwater model with a resolution of 5 arc-minutes (approximately 10 km at the equator) using MODFLOW (McDonald and Harbaugh, 1988). Aquifer schematization and properties of this groundwater model were developed from available global lithological maps and datasets (Dürr et al., 2005; Gleeson et al., 2010; Hartmann and Moosdorf, 2013) combined with information about e.g. aquifer thickness and presence of less permeable, impermeable, and semi-impermeable layers. For the parameterization, we relied entirely on available global datasets and did not calibrate the model so that it can equally be expanded to data poor environments. We forced the groundwater model with the output from the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB (van Beek et al., 2011), specifically the net groundwater recharge and average surface water levels derived from routed channel discharge. We validated simulated groundwater heads with observations, from North America and Australia, resulting in a coefficient of determination of 0.8 and 0.7 respectively. This shows that it is feasible to build a global groundwater model using best available

  6. Global Reference Atmosphere Model (GRAM)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson, D. L.; Blocker, Rhonda; Justus, C. G.

    1993-01-01

    4D model provides atmospheric parameter values either automatically at positions along linear path or along any set of connected positions specified by user. Based on actual data, GRAM provides thermal wind shear for monthly mean winds, percent deviation from standard atmosphere, mean vertical wind, and perturbation data for each position.

  7. The Global Earthquake Model - Past, Present, Future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smolka, Anselm; Schneider, John; Stein, Ross

    2014-05-01

    The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a unique collaborative effort that aims to provide organizations and individuals with tools and resources for transparent assessment of earthquake risk anywhere in the world. By pooling data, knowledge and people, GEM acts as an international forum for collaboration and exchange. Sharing of data and risk information, best practices, and approaches across the globe are key to assessing risk more effectively. Through consortium driven global projects, open-source IT development and collaborations with more than 10 regions, leading experts are developing unique global datasets, best practice, open tools and models for seismic hazard and risk assessment. The year 2013 has seen the completion of ten global data sets or components addressing various aspects of earthquake hazard and risk, as well as two GEM-related, but independently managed regional projects SHARE and EMME. Notably, the International Seismological Centre (ISC) led the development of a new ISC-GEM global instrumental earthquake catalogue, which was made publicly available in early 2013. It has set a new standard for global earthquake catalogues and has found widespread acceptance and application in the global earthquake community. By the end of 2014, GEM's OpenQuake computational platform will provide the OpenQuake hazard/risk assessment software and integrate all GEM data and information products. The public release of OpenQuake is planned for the end of this 2014, and will comprise the following datasets and models: • ISC-GEM Instrumental Earthquake Catalogue (released January 2013) • Global Earthquake History Catalogue [1000-1903] • Global Geodetic Strain Rate Database and ModelGlobal Active Fault Database • Tectonic Regionalisation ModelGlobal Exposure Database • Buildings and Population Database • Earthquake Consequences Database • Physical Vulnerabilities Database • Socio-Economic Vulnerability and Resilience Indicators • Seismic

  8. A high resolution global scale groundwater model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Graaf, Inge; Sutanudjaja, Edwin; van Beek, Rens; Bierkens, Marc

    2014-05-01

    As the world's largest accessible source of freshwater, groundwater plays a vital role in satisfying the basic needs of human society. It serves as a primary source of drinking water and supplies water for agricultural and industrial activities. During times of drought, groundwater storage provides a large natural buffer against water shortage and sustains flows to rivers and wetlands, supporting ecosystem habitats and biodiversity. Yet, the current generation of global scale hydrological models (GHMs) do not include a groundwater flow component, although it is a crucial part of the hydrological cycle. Thus, a realistic physical representation of the groundwater system that allows for the simulation of groundwater head dynamics and lateral flows is essential for GHMs that increasingly run at finer resolution. In this study we present a global groundwater model with a resolution of 5 arc-minutes (approximately 10 km at the equator) using MODFLOW (McDonald and Harbaugh, 1988). With this global groundwater model we eventually intend to simulate the changes in the groundwater system over time that result from variations in recharge and abstraction. Aquifer schematization and properties of this groundwater model were developed from available global lithological maps and datasets (Dürr et al., 2005; Gleeson et al., 2010; Hartmann and Moosdorf, 2013), combined with our estimate of aquifer thickness for sedimentary basins. We forced the groundwater model with the output from the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB (van Beek et al., 2011), specifically the net groundwater recharge and average surface water levels derived from routed channel discharge. For the parameterization, we relied entirely on available global datasets and did not calibrate the model so that it can equally be expanded to data poor environments. Based on our sensitivity analysis, in which we run the model with various hydrogeological parameter settings, we observed that most variance in groundwater

  9. Modeling Global Biogenic Emission of Isoprene: Exploration of Model Drivers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Alexander, Susan E.; Potter, Christopher S.; Coughlan, Joseph C.; Klooster, Steven A.; Lerdau, Manuel T.; Chatfield, Robert B.; Peterson, David L. (Technical Monitor)

    1996-01-01

    Vegetation provides the major source of isoprene emission to the atmosphere. We present a modeling approach to estimate global biogenic isoprene emission. The isoprene flux model is linked to a process-based computer simulation model of biogenic trace-gas fluxes that operates on scales that link regional and global data sets and ecosystem nutrient transformations Isoprene emission estimates are determined from estimates of ecosystem specific biomass, emission factors, and algorithms based on light and temperature. Our approach differs from an existing modeling framework by including the process-based global model for terrestrial ecosystem production, satellite derived ecosystem classification, and isoprene emission measurements from a tropical deciduous forest. We explore the sensitivity of model estimates to input parameters. The resulting emission products from the global 1 degree x 1 degree coverage provided by the satellite datasets and the process model allow flux estimations across large spatial scales and enable direct linkage to atmospheric models of trace-gas transport and transformation.

  10. Development of Global Magnetosphere Models of Jupiter

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Khurana, Krishan K.

    2004-01-01

    The objective of the proposal was to construct global magnetospheric models of Jupiter for the use of Jovian magnetospheric community. In the four years of the grant period we were able to achieve all of the stated science objectives. The work has resulted in: 1) A new structural model of Jovian current sheet; 2) Global thickness map of the current sheet; 3) Magnetic field models of the current sheet; 4) The global model of Jupiter's magnetospheric field including hinging and delay of the current sheet, sweepback of the magnetic field and the shielding field of the magnetopause. To accomplish our work, we assembled an exhaustive magnetic field data base from all of the spacecraft that have visited Jupiter (Pioneers 10 and 11, Voyagers 1 and 2, Ulysses and Galileo). The data were rotated into system III and JSM coordinates. We used the data at resolutions of 1 minute (for studies of the structure of the current sheet) and 10 minutes (for building the global model).

  11. Development towards a global operational aerosol consensus: basic climatological characteristics of the International Cooperative for Aerosol Prediction Multi-Model Ensemble (ICAP-MME)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sessions, W. R.; Reid, J. S.; Benedetti, A.; Colarco, P. R.; da Silva, A.; Lu, S.; Sekiyama, T.; Tanaka, T. Y.; Baldasano, J. M.; Basart, S.; Brooks, M. E.; Eck, T. F.; Iredell, M.; Hansen, J. A.; Jorba, O. C.; Juang, H.-M. H.; Lynch, P.; Morcrette, J.-J.; Moorthi, S.; Mulcahy, J.; Pradhan, Y.; Razinger, M.; Sampson, C. B.; Wang, J.; Westphal, D. L.

    2015-01-01

    Here we present the first steps in developing a global multi-model aerosol forecasting ensemble intended for eventual operational and basic research use. Drawing from members of the International Cooperative for Aerosol Prediction (ICAP) latest generation of quasi-operational aerosol models, 5-day aerosol optical thickness (AOT) forecasts are analyzed for December 2011 through November 2012 from four institutions: European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), and Naval Research Lab/Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (NRL/FNMOC). For dust, we also include the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration-National Geospatial Advisory Committee (NOAA NGAC) product in our analysis. The Barcelona Supercomputing Centre and UK Met Office dust products have also recently become members of ICAP, but have insufficient data to be included in this analysis period. A simple consensus ensemble of member and mean AOT fields for modal species (e.g., fine and coarse mode, and a separate dust ensemble) is used to create the ICAP Multi-Model Ensemble (ICAP-MME). The ICAP-MME is run daily at 00:00 UTC for 6-hourly forecasts out to 120 h. Basing metrics on comparisons to 21 regionally representative Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sites, all models generally captured the basic aerosol features of the globe. However, there is an overall AOT low bias among models, particularly for high AOT events. Biomass burning regions have the most diversity in seasonal average AOT. The Southern Ocean, though low in AOT, nevertheless also has high diversity. With regard to root mean square error (RMSE), as expected the ICAP-MME placed first over all models worldwide, and was typically first or second in ranking against all models at individual sites. These results are encouraging; furthermore, as more global operational aerosol models come online, we expect their inclusion in a robust

  12. The Global 2000 Report to the President. Volume Three. Documentation on the Government's Global Sectoral Models: The Government's "Global Model."

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Barney, Gerald O., Ed.

    The third volume of the Global 2000 study presents basic information ("documentation") on the long-term sectoral models used by the U.S. government to project global trends in population, resources, and the environment. Its threefold purposes are: (1) to present all this basic information in a single volume, (2) to provide an explanation, in the…

  13. An online educational atmospheric global circulation model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Navarro, T.; Schott, C.; Forget, F.

    2015-10-01

    As part of online courses on exoplanets of Observatoire de Paris, an online tool designed to vizualise outputs of the Laboratoire de Métérologie Dynamique (LMD) Global Circulation Model (GCM) for various atmospheric circulation regimes has been developed. It includes the possibility for students to visualize 1D and 2D plots along with animations of atmospheric quantities such as temperature, winds, surface pressure, mass flux, etc... from a state-of-the-art model.

  14. Global health promotion models: enlightenment or entrapment?

    PubMed

    Whitelaw, S; McKeown, K; Williams, J

    1997-12-01

    This paper suggests that there is a tendency for health promotion to be located within models that consider health to be a product of a range of forces, with practice itself assumed to comprise a similarly wide range of activities. This paper develops a critique of this tendency that is essentially accommodating, all embracing and 'neutral'. It is argued that this leads to the masking of tensions between the conflicting values contained within the different elements of the models. We suggest that for health promoters, this is neither conceptually appropriate nor practically sensible. These notions are developed in five main stages. We start by defining some of the key concepts in the piece, e.g. the nature of a 'model' and examples of 'global' models. We then examine some of the general reasons why global models are favoured, with respect to the emergence of the UK's strategy for health, The Health of the Nation. The third stage of the discussion identifies and considers, within the British context, professional and governmental factors perceived to have driven this choice. The fourth aspect of the paper will introduce a critique of the use of global modelling. The paper concludes by critically questioning this evolving relationship, and suggests that it will be essentially conservative and unproductive. We end by reviewing the implications for practice and suggesting a useful way forward.

  15. Studying complex chemistries using PLASIMO's global model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koelman, PMJ; Tadayon Mousavi, S.; Perillo, R.; Graef, WAAD; Mihailova, DB; van Dijk, J.

    2016-02-01

    The Plasimo simulation software is used to construct a Global Model of a CO2 plasma. A DBD plasma between two coaxial cylinders is considered, which is driven by a triangular input power pulse. The plasma chemistry is studied during this power pulse and in the afterglow. The model consists of 71 species that interact in 3500 reactions. Preliminary results from the model are presented. The model has been validated by comparing its results with those presented in Kozák et al. (Plasma Sources Science and Technology 23(4) p. 045004, 2014). A good qualitative agreement has been reached; potential sources of remaining discrepancies are extensively discussed.

  16. Global Environmental Change: Modelling and Monitoring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Edwards, Christopher

    Stimulating work in many areas of environmental science has led to a growing awareness of and concern for the global environment. The subject of global change itself can be expressed narrowly, in terms of anthropogenic impacts on climate, or offered in the broadest sense, to include all changes occurring in the Earth-ocean-atmosphere system, either naturally, or as a result of human-induced interactions. Global Environmental Change: Modelling and Monitoring chooses the latter expression, and the authors ambitiously propose a unified global modeling system to study and monitor all such changes and provide real-time assessments to assist policymakers.Although the text is divided into 11 chapters, it conceptually splits into four sections. The introduction frames the need for a centralized, international monitoring organization by predicting the catastrophic trajectory of unsustainable development of the present Earth system based on a range of environmental and societal indicators; for example, enhanced atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, tropical forest destruction, unchecked fossil fuel consumption, and increases in human disease. The second section presents an overall structure of a system designed to chart this trajectory: a global observational data base linked to a vast model—or really a collection of interconnected modeling units—spanning ocean, atmospheric and terrestrial hydrodynamics, chemistry, and biology. The third section, which represents the bulk of the text, considers specific applications of the model as explored by the authors. The final two chapters describe some recent developments in microwave remote sensing capabilities and some theory into hypothesis testing and decision-making.

  17. Global Analysis, Interpretation and Modelling: An Earth Systems Modelling Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moore, Berrien, III; Sahagian, Dork

    1997-01-01

    The Goal of the GAIM is: To advance the study of the coupled dynamics of the Earth system using as tools both data and models; to develop a strategy for the rapid development, evaluation, and application of comprehensive prognostic models of the Global Biogeochemical Subsystem which could eventually be linked with models of the Physical-Climate Subsystem; to propose, promote, and facilitate experiments with existing models or by linking subcomponent models, especially those associated with IGBP Core Projects and with WCRP efforts. Such experiments would be focused upon resolving interface issues and questions associated with developing an understanding of the prognostic behavior of key processes; to clarify key scientific issues facing the development of Global Biogeochemical Models and the coupling of these models to General Circulation Models; to assist the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) process by conducting timely studies that focus upon elucidating important unresolved scientific issues associated with the changing biogeochemical cycles of the planet and upon the role of the biosphere in the physical-climate subsystem, particularly its role in the global hydrological cycle; and to advise the SC-IGBP on progress in developing comprehensive Global Biogeochemical Models and to maintain scientific liaison with the WCRP Steering Group on Global Climate Modelling.

  18. Global modelling of Cryptosporidium in surface water

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vermeulen, Lucie; Hofstra, Nynke

    2016-04-01

    Introduction Waterborne pathogens that cause diarrhoea, such as Cryptosporidium, pose a health risk all over the world. In many regions quantitative information on pathogens in surface water is unavailable. Our main objective is to model Cryptosporidium concentrations in surface waters worldwide. We present the GloWPa-Crypto model and use the model in a scenario analysis. A first exploration of global Cryptosporidium emissions to surface waters has been published by Hofstra et al. (2013). Further work has focused on modelling emissions of Cryptosporidium and Rotavirus to surface waters from human sources (Vermeulen et al 2015, Kiulia et al 2015). A global waterborne pathogen model can provide valuable insights by (1) providing quantitative information on pathogen levels in data-sparse regions, (2) identifying pathogen hotspots, (3) enabling future projections under global change scenarios and (4) supporting decision making. Material and Methods GloWPa-Crypto runs on a monthly time step and represents conditions for approximately the year 2010. The spatial resolution is a 0.5 x 0.5 degree latitude x longitude grid for the world. We use livestock maps (http://livestock.geo-wiki.org/) combined with literature estimates to calculate spatially explicit livestock Cryptosporidium emissions. For human Cryptosporidium emissions, we use UN population estimates, the WHO/UNICEF JMP sanitation country data and literature estimates of wastewater treatment. We combine our emissions model with a river routing model and data from the VIC hydrological model (http://vic.readthedocs.org/en/master/) to calculate concentrations in surface water. Cryptosporidium survival during transport depends on UV radiation and water temperature. We explore pathogen emissions and concentrations in 2050 with the new Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) 1 and 3. These scenarios describe plausible future trends in demographics, economic development and the degree of global integration. Results and

  19. A high resolution global scale groundwater model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Graaf, I. E. M.; Sutanudjaja, E. H.; van Beek, L. P. H.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

    2014-05-01

    Groundwater is the world's largest accessible source of fresh water. It plays a vital role in satisfying needs for drinking water, agriculture and industrial activities. During times of drought groundwater sustains baseflow to rivers and wetlands, thereby supporting ecosystems. Most global scale hydrological models (GHMs) do not include a groundwater flow component, mainly due to lack of geohydrological data at the global scale. For the simulation of lateral flow and groundwater head dynamics a realistic physical representation of the groundwater system is needed, especially for GHMs that run at finer resolution. In this study we present a global scale groundwater model (run at 6' as dynamic steady state) using MODFLOW to construct an equilibrium water table at its natural state as the result of long-term climatic forcing. The aquifer schematization and properties were based on available global datasets of lithology and transmissivities combined with estimated aquifer thickness of an upper unconfined aquifer. The model is forced with outputs from the land-surface model PCR-GLOBWB, specifically with net recharge and surface water levels. A sensitivity analysis, in which the model was run with various parameter settings, showed variation in saturated conductivity causes most of the groundwater level variations. Simulated groundwater heads were validated against reported piezometer observations. The validation showed that groundwater depths are reasonably well simulated for many regions of the world, especially for sediment basins (R2 = 0.95). The simulated regional scale groundwater patterns and flowpaths confirm the relevance of taking lateral groundwater flow into account in GHMs. Flowpaths show inter-basin groundwater flow that can be a significant part of a basins water budget and helps to sustain river baseflow, explicitly during times of droughts. Also important aquifer systems are recharged by inter-basin groundwater flows that positively affect water

  20. Global optimization of bilinear engineering design models

    SciTech Connect

    Grossmann, I.; Quesada, I.

    1994-12-31

    Recently Quesada and Grossmann have proposed a global optimization algorithm for solving NLP problems involving linear fractional and bilinear terms. This model has been motivated by a number of applications in process design. The proposed method relies on the derivation of a convex NLP underestimator problem that is used within a spatial branch and bound search. This paper explores the use of alternative bounding approximations for constructing the underestimator problem. These are applied in the global optimization of problems arising in different engineering areas and for which different relaxations are proposed depending on the mathematical structure of the models. These relaxations include linear and nonlinear underestimator problems. Reformulations that generate additional estimator functions are also employed. Examples from process design, structural design, portfolio investment and layout design are presented.

  1. Global dynamic modeling of a transmission system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Choy, F. K.; Qian, W.

    1993-01-01

    The work performed on global dynamic simulation and noise correlation of gear transmission systems at the University of Akron is outlined. The objective is to develop a comprehensive procedure to simulate the dynamics of the gear transmission system coupled with the effects of gear box vibrations. The developed numerical model is benchmarked with results from experimental tests at NASA Lewis Research Center. The modal synthesis approach is used to develop the global transient vibration analysis procedure used in the model. Modal dynamic characteristics of the rotor-gear-bearing system are calculated by the matrix transfer method while those of the gear box are evaluated by the finite element method (NASTRAN). A three-dimensional, axial-lateral coupled bearing model is used to couple the rotor vibrations with the gear box motion. The vibrations between the individual rotor systems are coupled through the nonlinear gear mesh interactions. The global equations of motion are solved in modal coordinates and the transient vibration of the system is evaluated by a variable time-stepping integration scheme. The relationship between housing vibration and resulting noise of the gear transmission system is generated by linear transfer functions using experimental data. A nonlinear relationship of the noise components to the fundamental mesh frequency is developed using the hypercoherence function. The numerically simulated vibrations and predicted noise of the gear transmission system are compared with the experimental results from the gear noise test rig at NASA Lewis Research Center. Results of the comparison indicate that the global dynamic model developed can accurately simulate the dynamics of a gear transmission system.

  2. Global dynamic modeling of a transmission system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choy, F. K.; Qian, W.

    1993-04-01

    The work performed on global dynamic simulation and noise correlation of gear transmission systems at the University of Akron is outlined. The objective is to develop a comprehensive procedure to simulate the dynamics of the gear transmission system coupled with the effects of gear box vibrations. The developed numerical model is benchmarked with results from experimental tests at NASA Lewis Research Center. The modal synthesis approach is used to develop the global transient vibration analysis procedure used in the model. Modal dynamic characteristics of the rotor-gear-bearing system are calculated by the matrix transfer method while those of the gear box are evaluated by the finite element method (NASTRAN). A three-dimensional, axial-lateral coupled bearing model is used to couple the rotor vibrations with the gear box motion. The vibrations between the individual rotor systems are coupled through the nonlinear gear mesh interactions. The global equations of motion are solved in modal coordinates and the transient vibration of the system is evaluated by a variable time-stepping integration scheme. The relationship between housing vibration and resulting noise of the gear transmission system is generated by linear transfer functions using experimental data. A nonlinear relationship of the noise components to the fundamental mesh frequency is developed using the hypercoherence function. The numerically simulated vibrations and predicted noise of the gear transmission system are compared with the experimental results from the gear noise test rig at NASA Lewis Research Center. Results of the comparison indicate that the global dynamic model developed can accurately simulate the dynamics of a gear transmission system.

  3. Global Urbanization Modeling Supported by Remote Sensing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Y.; Smith, S.; Zhao, K.; Imhoff, M. L.; Thomson, A. M.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Elvidge, C.

    2014-12-01

    Urbanization, one of the major human induced land cover and land use change, has profound impacts on the Earth system, and plays important roles in a variety of processes such as biodiversity loss, water and carbon cycle, and climate change. Accurate information on urban areas and their spatial distribution at the regional and global scales is important in both scientific and policy-making communities. The Defense Meteorological Satellite Program/Operational Linescan System (DMSP/OLS) nighttime stable light data (NTL) provide a potential way to map urban area and its dynamics economically and timely. In this study, we developed a cluster-based method to estimate the optimal thresholds and map urban extents from the DMSP/OLS NTL data. The sensitivity analysis demonstrates the robustness of the derived optimal thresholds and the reliability of the cluster-based method. Compared to existing threshold techniques, our method reduces the over- and under-estimation issue, when mapping urban extent over a large area. Using this cluster-based method, we built new global maps of 1-km urban extent from the NTL data (Figure 1) and evaluated its temporal dynamics from 1992 to 2013. Supported by the derived global urban maps and socio-economic drivers, we developed an integrated modeling framework by integrating a top-down macro-scale statistical model with a bottom-up urban growth model and projected future urban expansion.

  4. Global modeling of fresh surface water temperature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bierkens, M. F.; Eikelboom, T.; van Vliet, M. T.; Van Beek, L. P.

    2011-12-01

    Temperature determines a range of water physical properties, the solubility of oxygen and other gases and acts as a strong control on fresh water biogeochemistry, influencing chemical reaction rates, phytoplankton and zooplankton composition and the presence or absence of pathogens. Thus, in freshwater ecosystems the thermal regime affects the geographical distribution of aquatic species through their growth and metabolism, tolerance to parasites, diseases and pollution and life history. Compared to statistical approaches, physically-based models of surface water temperature have the advantage that they are robust in light of changes in flow regime, river morphology, radiation balance and upstream hydrology. Such models are therefore better suited for projecting the effects of global change on water temperature. Till now, physically-based models have only been applied to well-defined fresh water bodies of limited size (e.g., lakes or stream segments), where the numerous parameters can be measured or otherwise established, whereas attempts to model water temperature over larger scales has thus far been limited to regression type of models. Here, we present a first attempt to apply a physically-based model of global fresh surface water temperature. The model adds a surface water energy balance to river discharge modelled by the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. In addition to advection of energy from direct precipitation, runoff and lateral exchange along the drainage network, energy is exchanged between the water body and the atmosphere by short and long-wave radiation and sensible and latent heat fluxes. Also included are ice-formation and its effect on heat storage and river hydraulics. We used the coupled surface water and energy balance model to simulate global fresh surface water temperature at daily time steps on a 0.5x0.5 degree grid for the period 1970-2000. Meteorological forcing was obtained from the CRU data set, downscaled to daily values with ECMWF

  5. GLOBAL REFERENCE ATMOSPHERIC MODELS FOR AEROASSIST APPLICATIONS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Duvall, Aleta; Justus, C. G.; Keller, Vernon W.

    2005-01-01

    Aeroassist is a broad category of advanced transportation technology encompassing aerocapture, aerobraking, aeroentry, precision landing, hazard detection and avoidance, and aerogravity assist. The eight destinations in the Solar System with sufficient atmosphere to enable aeroassist technology are Venus, Earth, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune, and Saturn's moon Titan. Engineering-level atmospheric models for five of these targets - Earth, Mars, Titan, Neptune, and Venus - have been developed at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center. These models are useful as tools in mission planning and systems analysis studies associated with aeroassist applications. The series of models is collectively named the Global Reference Atmospheric Model or GRAM series. An important capability of all the models in the GRAM series is their ability to simulate quasi-random perturbations for Monte Carlo analysis in developing guidance, navigation and control algorithms, for aerothermal design, and for other applications sensitive to atmospheric variability. Recent example applications are discussed.

  6. Improving Global Health Education: Development of a Global Health Competency Model

    PubMed Central

    Ablah, Elizabeth; Biberman, Dorothy A.; Weist, Elizabeth M.; Buekens, Pierre; Bentley, Margaret E.; Burke, Donald; Finnegan, John R.; Flahault, Antoine; Frenk, Julio; Gotsch, Audrey R.; Klag, Michael J.; Lopez, Mario Henry Rodriguez; Nasca, Philip; Shortell, Stephen; Spencer, Harrison C.

    2014-01-01

    Although global health is a recommended content area for the future of education in public health, no standardized global health competency model existed for master-level public health students. Without such a competency model, academic institutions are challenged to ensure that students are able to demonstrate the knowledge, skills, and attitudes (KSAs) needed for successful performance in today's global health workforce. The Association of Schools of Public Health (ASPH) sought to address this need by facilitating the development of a global health competency model through a multistage modified-Delphi process. Practitioners and academic global health experts provided leadership and guidance throughout the competency development process. The resulting product, the Global Health Competency Model 1.1, includes seven domains and 36 competencies. The Global Health Competency Model 1.1 provides a platform for engaging educators, students, and global health employers in discussion of the KSAs needed to improve human health on a global scale. PMID:24445206

  7. [Review of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs)].

    PubMed

    Che, Ming-Liang; Chen, Bao-Zhang; Wang, Ying; Guo, Xiang-Yun

    2014-01-01

    Dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) is an important and efficient tool for study on the terrestrial carbon circle processes and vegetation dynamics. This paper reviewed the development history of DGVMs, introduced the basic structure of DGVMs, and the outlines of several world-widely used DGVMs, including CLM-DGVM, LPJ, IBIS and SEIB. The shortages of the description of dynamic vegetation mechanisms in the current DGVMs were proposed, including plant functional types (PFT) scheme, vegetation competition, disturbance, and phenology. Then the future research directions of DGVMs were pointed out, i. e. improving the PFT scheme, refining the vegetation dynamic mechanism, and implementing a model inter-comparison project. PMID:24765870

  8. Cooperative global security programs modeling & simulation.

    SciTech Connect

    Briand, Daniel

    2010-05-01

    The national laboratories global security programs implement sustainable technical solutions for cooperative nonproliferation, arms control, and physical security systems worldwide. To help in the development and execution of these programs, a wide range of analytical tools are used to model, for example, synthetic tactical environments for assessing infrastructure protection initiatives and tactics, systematic approaches for prioritizing nuclear and biological threat reduction opportunities worldwide, and nuclear fuel cycle enrichment and spent fuel management for nuclear power countries. This presentation will describe how these models are used in analyses to support the Obama Administration's agenda and bilateral/multinational treaties, and ultimately, to reduce weapons of mass destruction and terrorism threats through international technical cooperation.

  9. A Substance Flow Model for Global Phosphorus

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vaccari, D. A.

    2015-12-01

    A system-based substance flow model (SFM) for phosphorus is developed based on the global phosphorus substance flow analysis (SFA) of Cordell et al (2009). The model is based strictly on mass balance considerations. It predicts the sensitivity of phosphorus consumption to various interventions intended to conserve reserves, as well as interactions among these efforts, allowing a comparison of their impacts on phosphorus demand. The interventions include control of phosphorus losses from soil erosion, food production and food waste, or phosphorus recycling such as from animal manure or human waste.

  10. Towards a Global Upper Mantle Attenuation Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karaoglu, Haydar; Romanowicz, Barbara

    2015-04-01

    Global anelastic tomography is crucial for addressing the nature of heterogeneity in the Earth's interior. The intrinsic attenuation manifests itself through dispersion and amplitude decay. These are contaminated by elastic effects such as (de)focusing and scattering. Therefore, mapping anelasticity accurately requires separation of elastic effects from the anelastic ones. To achieve this, a possible approach is to try and first predict elastic effects through the computation of seismic waveforms in a high resolution 3D elastic model, which can now be achieved accurately using numerical wavefield computations. Building upon the recent construction of such a whole mantle elastic and radially anisotropic shear velocity model (SEMUCB_WM1, French and Romanowicz, 2014), which will be used as starting model, our goal is to develop a higher resolution 3D attenuation model of the upper mantle based on full waveform inversion. As in the development of SEMUCB_WM1, forward modeling will be performed using the spectral element method, while the inverse problem will be treated approximately, using normal mode asymptotics. Both fundamental and overtone time domain long period waveforms (T>60s) will be used from a dataset of over 200 events observed at several hundred stations globally. Here we present preliminary results of synthetic tests, exploring different iterative inversion strategies.

  11. Progress in Global Multicompartmental Modelling of DDT

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stemmler, I.; Lammel, G.

    2009-04-01

    Dichlorophenyltrichloroethane, DDT, and its major metabolite dichlorophenyldichloroethylene, DDE, are long-lived in the environment (persistent) and circulate since the 1950s. They accumulate along food chains, cause detrimental effects in marine and terrestrial wild life, and pose a hazard for human health. DDT was widely used as an insecticide in the past and is still in use in a number of tropical countries to combat vector borne diseases like malaria and typhus. It is a multicompartmental substance with only a small mass fraction residing in air. A global multicompartment chemistry transport model (MPI-MCTM; Semeena et al., 2006) is used to study the environmental distribution and fate of dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT). For the first time a horizontally and vertically resolved global model was used to perform a long-term simulation of DDT and DDE. The model is based on general circulation models for the ocean (MPIOM; Marsland et al., 2003) and atmosphere (ECHAM5). In addition, an oceanic biogeochemistry model (HAMOCC5.1; Maier-Reimer et al., 2005 ) and a microphysical aerosol model (HAM; Stier et al., 2005 ) are included. Multicompartmental substances are cycling in atmosphere (3 phases), ocean (3 phases), top soil (3 phases), and vegetation surfaces. The model was run for 40 years forced with historical agricultural application data of 1950-1990. The model results show that the global environmental contamination started to decrease in air, soil and vegetation after the applications peaked in 1965-70. In some regions, however, the DDT mass had not yet reached a maximum in 1990 and was still accumulating mass until the end of the simulation. Modelled DDT and DDE concentrations in atmosphere, ocean and soil are evaluated by comparison with observational data. The evaluation of the model results indicate that degradation of DDE in air was underestimated. Also for DDT, the discrepancies between model results and observations are related to uncertainties of

  12. A hydroclimatic model of global fire patterns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boer, Matthias

    2015-04-01

    Satellite-based earth observation is providing an increasingly accurate picture of global fire patterns. The highest fire activity is observed in seasonally dry (sub-)tropical environments of South America, Africa and Australia, but fires occur with varying frequency, intensity and seasonality in almost all biomes on Earth. The particular combination of these fire characteristics, or fire regime, is known to emerge from the combined influences of climate, vegetation, terrain and land use, but has so far proven difficult to reproduce by global models. Uncertainty about the biophysical drivers and constraints that underlie current global fire patterns is propagated in model predictions of how ecosystems, fire regimes and biogeochemical cycles may respond to projected future climates. Here, I present a hydroclimatic model of global fire patterns that predicts the mean annual burned area fraction (F) of 0.25° x 0.25° grid cells as a function of the climatic water balance. Following Bradstock's four-switch model, long-term fire activity levels were assumed to be controlled by fuel productivity rates and the likelihood that the extant fuel is dry enough to burn. The frequency of ignitions and favourable fire weather were assumed to be non-limiting at long time scales. Fundamentally, fuel productivity and fuel dryness are a function of the local water and energy budgets available for the production and desiccation of plant biomass. The climatic water balance summarizes the simultaneous availability of biologically usable energy and water at a site, and may therefore be expected to explain a significant proportion of global variation in F. To capture the effect of the climatic water balance on fire activity I focused on the upper quantiles of F, i.e. the maximum level of fire activity for a given climatic water balance. Analysing GFED4 data for annual burned area together with gridded climate data, I found that nearly 80% of the global variation in the 0.99 quantile of F

  13. Stochastic global modeling of the archeomagnetic field

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hellio, Gabrielle; Bouligand, Claire; Gillet, Nicolas; Jault, Dominique

    2016-04-01

    Modeling of the archeomagnetic field relies on indirect estimations of the ancient field recorded both in archeological artifacts and lake sediments. The sparse repartition of archeomagnetic data in space and time and their associated large measurement and dating uncertainties limit our ability to recover the spatio-temporal variations of the geomagnetic field over the past few millennia. The time regularization generally used to overcome the problem of non-uniqueness leads to models that are generally too smooth compared to geomagnetic time-series. The aim of this study is to perform a stochastic inversion of all available archeomagnetic data in order to build an ensemble of global models covering the past few millennia. The inverse problem is solved using a priori information on the Gauss coefficients. We rely on a time correlation function, which is compatible with present knowledge of the geomagnetic spectra and also with the rapid fluctuations observed in the geomagnetic time series. The method we developed allows us to account for dating errors in a probabilistic framework, at the expense of an inflated data space. We present here the resulting global model that offers an alternative to existing ones.

  14. A Global Model of Meteoric Sodium

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Marsh, Daniel R.; Janches, Diego; Feng, Wuhu; Plane, John M. C.

    2013-01-01

    A global model of sodium in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere has been developed within the framework of the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). The standard fully interactive WACCM chemistry module has been augmented with a chemistry scheme that includes nine neutral and ionized sodium species. Meteoric ablation provides the source of sodium in the model and is represented as a combination of a meteoroid input function (MIF) and a parameterized ablation model. The MIF provides the seasonally and latitudinally varying meteoric flux which is modeled taking into consideration the astronomical origins of sporadic meteors and considers variations in particle entry angle, velocity, mass, and the differential ablation of the chemical constituents. WACCM simulations show large variations in the sodium constituents over time scales from days to months. Seasonality of sodium constituents is strongly affected by variations in the MIF and transport via the mean meridional wind. In particular, the summer to winter hemisphere flow leads to the highest sodium species concentrations and loss rates occurring over the winter pole. In the Northern Hemisphere, this winter maximum can be dramatically affected by stratospheric sudden warmings. Simulations of the January 2009 major warming event show that it caused a short-term decrease in the sodium column over the polar cap that was followed by a factor of 3 increase in the following weeks. Overall, the modeled distribution of atomic sodium in WACCM agrees well with both ground-based and satellite observations. Given the strong sensitivity of the sodium layer to dynamical motions, reproducing its variability provides a stringent test of global models and should help to constrain key atmospheric variables in this poorly sampled region of the atmosphere.

  15. Global Adjoint Tomography: First-Generation Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bozdağ, Ebru; Peter, Daniel; Lefebvre, Matthieu; Komatitsch, Dimitri; Tromp, Jeroen; Hill, Judith; Podhorszki, Norbert; Pugmire, David

    2016-09-01

    We present the first-generation global tomographic model constructed based on adjoint tomography, an iterative full-waveform inversion technique. Synthetic seismograms were calculated using GPU-accelerated spectral-element simulations of global seismic wave propagation, accommodating effects due to 3D anelastic crust & mantle structure, topography & bathymetry, the ocean load, ellipticity, rotation, and self-gravitation. Fréchet derivatives were calculated in 3D anelastic models based on an adjoint-state method. The simulations were performed on the Cray XK7 named `Titan', a computer with 18,688 GPU accelerators housed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The transversely isotropic global model is the result of 15 tomographic iterations, which systematically reduced differences between observed and simulated three-component seismograms. Our starting model combined 3D mantle model S362ANI (Kustowski et al. 2008) with 3D crustal model Crust2.0 (Bassin et al. 2000). We simultaneously inverted for structure in the crust and mantle, thereby eliminating the need for widely used `crustal corrections'. We used data from 253 earthquakes in the magnitude range 5.8~ ≤ ~Mw~ ≤ ~7.0. For the first 12 iterations, we combined ˜30 s body-wave data with ˜60 s surface-wave data. The shortest period of the surface waves was gradually decreased, and in the last three iterations we combined ˜17 s body waves with ˜45 s surface waves. We started using 180 min-long seismograms after the 12th iteration and assimilated minor- and major-arc body and surface waves. The 15th iteration model features enhancements of well-known slabs, an enhanced image of the Samoa/Tahiti plume, as well as various other plumes and hotspots, such as Caroline, Galapagos, Yellowstone, and Erebus. Furthermore, we see clear improvements in slab resolution along the Hellenic and Japan Arcs, as well as subduction along the East of Scotia Plate, which does not exist in the starting model. Point-spread function

  16. Challenges in Modeling of the Global Atmosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Janjic, Zavisa; Djurdjevic, Vladimir; Vasic, Ratko; Black, Tom

    2015-04-01

    ") with significant amplitudes can develop. Due to their large scales, that are comparable to the scales of the dominant Rossby waves, such fictitious solutions are hard to identify and remove. Another new challenge on the global scale is that the limit of validity of the hydrostatic approximation is rapidly being approached. Having in mind the sensitivity of extended deterministic forecasts to small disturbances, we may need global non-hydrostatic models sooner than we think. The unified Non-hydrostatic Multi-scale Model (NMMB) that is being developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) as a part of the new NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) will be discussed as an example. The non-hydrostatic dynamics were designed in such a way as to avoid over-specification. The global version is run on the latitude-longitude grid, and the polar filter selectively slows down the waves that would otherwise be unstable. The model formulation has been successfully tested on various scales. A global forecasting system based on the NMMB has been run in order to test and tune the model. The skill of the medium range forecasts produced by the NMMB is comparable to that of other major medium range models. The computational efficiency of the global NMMB on parallel computers is good.

  17. Vlasiator: Global Kinetic Magnetospheric Modeling Tool

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sandroos, A.; von Alfthan, S.; Hoilijoki, S.; Honkonen, I.; Kempf, Y.; Pokhotelov, D.; Palmroth, M.

    2015-10-01

    We present Vlasiator, a novel code based on Vlasov's equation, developed for modeling magnetospheric plasma on a global scale. We have parallelized the code to petascale supercomputers with a hybrid OpenMP-MPI approach to answer the high computational cost of propagating ion distribution functions in six dimensions. The accuracy of the numerical method is demonstrated by comparing simulated wave dispersion plots to analytical results. Simulations of Earth's bow shock region were able to reproduce many well-known plasma phenomena, such as compressional magnetosonic waves in the foreshock region, and mirror mode instability in the magnetosheath.

  18. simplified aerosol representations in global modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kinne, Stefan; Peters, Karsten; Stevens, Bjorn; Rast, Sebastian; Schutgens, Nick; Stier, Philip

    2015-04-01

    The detailed treatment of aerosol in global modeling is complex and time-consuming. Thus simplified approaches are investigated, which prescribe 4D (space and time) distributions of aerosol optical properties and of aerosol microphysical properties. Aerosol optical properties are required to assess aerosol direct radiative effects and aerosol microphysical properties (in terms of their ability as aerosol nuclei to modify cloud droplet concentrations) are needed to address the indirect aerosol impact on cloud properties. Following the simplifying concept of the monthly gridded (1x1 lat/lon) aerosol climatology (MAC), new approaches are presented and evaluated against more detailed methods, including comparisons to detailed simulations with complex aerosol component modules.

  19. Nasadem Global Elevation Model: Methods and Progress

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crippen, R.; Buckley, S.; Agram, P.; Belz, E.; Gurrola, E.; Hensley, S.; Kobrick, M.; Lavalle, M.; Martin, J.; Neumann, M.; Nguyen, Q.; Rosen, P.; Shimada, J.; Simard, M.; Tung, W.

    2016-06-01

    NASADEM is a near-global elevation model that is being produced primarily by completely reprocessing the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) radar data and then merging it with refined ASTER GDEM elevations. The new and improved SRTM elevations in NASADEM result from better vertical control of each SRTM data swath via reference to ICESat elevations and from SRTM void reductions using advanced interferometric unwrapping algorithms. Remnant voids will be filled primarily by GDEM3, but with reduction of GDEM glitches (mostly related to clouds) and therefore with only minor need for secondary sources of fill.

  20. Modelling global peatlands from LGM to Anthropocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kleinen, T.; Brovkin, V.

    2013-12-01

    Peatlands play an important role in the global carbon cycle. While natural wetlands are the largest natural source of methane, peatlands have accumulated substantial amounts of carbon, with estimates of peat accumulated during the Holocene reaching 600 PgC. On longer timescales the carbon uptake by peatlands therefore becomes a cumulative flux of substantial magnitude. In order to mechanistically model interglacial carbon cycle dynamics, we have developed a dynamical model of wetland extent and peat accumulation, which we have integrated in the coupled climate carbon cycle model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER2-LPJ. This model consists of the climate model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER2, containing dynamic models of atmosphere and ocean, as well as sea ice and land surface modules. Its coarse spatial resolution leads to a high computational speed, which allows long-term transient integrations of the coupled model. Land carbon dynamics are computed using the dynamic global vegetation model LPJ. LPJ is run at a high spatial resolution of 0.5° and coupled to CLIMBER2 using the climate anomalies approach. Changes in land carbon storage as a response to changes in climate or atmospheric CO2 are therefore taken into account interactively at high spatial resolution. Within this model, we have implemented a module that dynamically determines the extent of a grid cell that is inunated, based on the TOPMODEL approach, incorporating sub-gridcell information on hydrological properties of the land surface. Within the permanent wetlands determined, peat is accumulated since the slow anaerobic decomposition in wetlands leads to a large excess of biomass production over organic matter decomposition. In addition, methane emissions from the decomposition of soil organic matter are determined, both for permanent, and for seasonal natural wetlands. While we have previously published results for boreal peatlands, we have now extended our approach to include tropical peatlands

  1. Modelling global peatlands from LGM to Anthropocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kleinen, Thomas; Brovkin, Victor

    2014-05-01

    Peatlands play an important role in the global carbon cycle. While natural wetlands are the largest natural source of methane, peatlands have accumulated substantial amounts of carbon, with estimates of peat accumulated during the Holocene reaching 600 PgC. On longer timescales the carbon uptake by peatlands therefore becomes a cumulative flux of substantial magnitude. In order to mechanistically model interglacial carbon cycle dynamics, we have developed a dynamical model of wetland extent and peat accumulation, which we have integrated in the coupled climate carbon cycle model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER2-LPJ. This model consists of the climate model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER2, containing dynamic models of atmosphere and ocean, as well as sea ice and land surface modules. Its coarse spatial resolution leads to a high computational speed, which allows long-term transient integrations of the coupled model. Land carbon dynamics are computed using the dynamic global vegetation model LPJ. LPJ is run at a high spatial resolution of 0.5° and coupled to CLIMBER2 using the climate anomalies approach. Changes in land carbon storage as a response to changes in climate or atmospheric CO2 are therefore taken into account interactively at high spatial resolution. Within this model, we have implemented a module that dynamically determines the extent of a grid cell that is inunated, based on the TOPMODEL approach, incorporating sub-gridcell information on hydrological properties of the land surface. Within the permanent wetlands determined, peat is accumulated since the slow anaerobic decomposition in wetlands leads to a large excess of biomass production over organic matter decomposition. In addition, methane emissions from the decomposition of soil organic matter are determined, both for permanent, and for seasonal natural wetlands. While we have previously published results for boreal peatlands, we have now extended our approach to include tropical peatlands

  2. A Global Magnetohydrodynamic Model of Jovian Magnetosphere

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Walker, Raymond J.; Sharber, James (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The goal of this project was to develop a new global magnetohydrodynamic model of the interaction of the Jovian magnetosphere with the solar wind. Observations from 28 orbits of Jupiter by Galileo along with those from previous spacecraft at Jupiter, Pioneer 10 and 11, Voyager I and 2 and Ulysses, have revealed that the Jovian magnetosphere is a vast, complicated system. The Jovian aurora also has been monitored for several years. Like auroral observations at Earth, these measurements provide us with a global picture of magnetospheric dynamics. Despite this wide range of observations, we have limited quantitative understanding of the Jovian magnetosphere and how it interacts with the solar wind. For the past several years we have been working toward a quantitative understanding of the Jovian magnetosphere and its interaction with the solar wind by employing global magnetohydrodynamic simulations to model the magnetosphere. Our model has been an explicit MHD code (previously used to model the Earth's magnetosphere) to study Jupiter's magnetosphere. We continue to obtain important insights with this code, but it suffers from some severe limitations. In particular with this code we are limited to considering the region outside of 15RJ, with cell sizes of about 1.5R(sub J). The problem arises because of the presence of widely separated time scales throughout the magnetosphere. The numerical stability criterion for explicit MHD codes is the CFL limit and is given by C(sub max)(Delta)t/(Delta)x less than 1 where C(sub max) is the maximum group velocity in a given cell, (Delta)x is the grid spacing and (Delta)t is the time step. If the maximum wave velocity is C(sub w) and the flow speed is C(sub f), C(sub max) = C(sub w) + C(sub f). Near Jupiter the Alfven wave speed becomes very large (it approaches the speed of light at one Jovian radius). Operating with this time step makes the calculation essentially intractable. Therefore under this funding we have been designing a

  3. A global atmospheric model of meteoric iron

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feng, Wuhu; Marsh, Daniel R.; Chipperfield, Martyn P.; Janches, Diego; Höffner, Josef; Yi, Fan; Plane, John M. C.

    2013-08-01

    The first global model of meteoric iron in the atmosphere (WACCM-Fe) has been developed by combining three components: the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), a description of the neutral and ion-molecule chemistry of iron in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT), and a treatment of the injection of meteoric constituents into the atmosphere. The iron chemistry treats seven neutral and four ionized iron containing species with 30 neutral and ion-molecule reactions. The meteoric input function (MIF), which describes the injection of Fe as a function of height, latitude, and day, is precalculated from an astronomical model coupled to a chemical meteoric ablation model (CABMOD). This newly developed WACCM-Fe model has been evaluated against a number of available ground-based lidar observations and performs well in simulating the mesospheric atomic Fe layer. The model reproduces the strong positive correlation of temperature and Fe density around the Fe layer peak and the large anticorrelation around 100 km. The diurnal tide has a significant effect in the middle of the layer, and the model also captures well the observed seasonal variations. However, the model overestimates the peak Fe+concentration compared with the limited rocket-borne mass spectrometer data available, although good agreement on the ion layer underside can be obtained by adjusting the rate coefficients for dissociative recombination of Fe-molecular ions with electrons. Sensitivity experiments with the same chemistry in a 1-D model are used to highlight significant remaining uncertainties in reaction rate coefficients, and to explore the dependence of the total Fe abundance on the MIF and rate of vertical transport.

  4. A Global Atmospheric Model of Meteoric Iron

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Feng, Wuhu; Marsh, Daniel R.; Chipperfield, Martyn P.; Janches, Diego; Hoffner, Josef; Yi, Fan; Plane, John M. C.

    2013-01-01

    The first global model of meteoric iron in the atmosphere (WACCM-Fe) has been developed by combining three components: the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), a description of the neutral and ion-molecule chemistry of iron in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT), and a treatment of the injection of meteoric constituents into the atmosphere. The iron chemistry treats seven neutral and four ionized iron containing species with 30 neutral and ion-molecule reactions. The meteoric input function (MIF), which describes the injection of Fe as a function of height, latitude, and day, is precalculated from an astronomical model coupled to a chemical meteoric ablation model (CABMOD). This newly developed WACCM-Fe model has been evaluated against a number of available ground-based lidar observations and performs well in simulating the mesospheric atomic Fe layer. The model reproduces the strong positive correlation of temperature and Fe density around the Fe layer peak and the large anticorrelation around 100 km. The diurnal tide has a significant effect in the middle of the layer, and the model also captures well the observed seasonal variations. However, the model overestimates the peak Fe+ concentration compared with the limited rocket-borne mass spectrometer data available, although good agreement on the ion layer underside can be obtained by adjusting the rate coefficients for dissociative recombination of Fe-molecular ions with electrons. Sensitivity experiments with the same chemistry in a 1-D model are used to highlight significant remaining uncertainties in reaction rate coefficients, and to explore the dependence of the total Fe abundance on the MIF and rate of vertical transport.

  5. Polynomial search and global modeling: Two algorithms for modeling chaos.

    PubMed

    Mangiarotti, S; Coudret, R; Drapeau, L; Jarlan, L

    2012-10-01

    Global modeling aims to build mathematical models of concise description. Polynomial Model Search (PoMoS) and Global Modeling (GloMo) are two complementary algorithms (freely downloadable at the following address: http://www.cesbio.ups-tlse.fr/us/pomos_et_glomo.html) designed for the modeling of observed dynamical systems based on a small set of time series. Models considered in these algorithms are based on ordinary differential equations built on a polynomial formulation. More specifically, PoMoS aims at finding polynomial formulations from a given set of 1 to N time series, whereas GloMo is designed for single time series and aims to identify the parameters for a selected structure. GloMo also provides basic features to visualize integrated trajectories and to characterize their structure when it is simple enough: One allows for drawing the first return map for a chosen Poincaré section in the reconstructed space; another one computes the Lyapunov exponent along the trajectory. In the present paper, global modeling from single time series is considered. A description of the algorithms is given and three examples are provided. The first example is based on the three variables of the Rössler attractor. The second one comes from an experimental analysis of the copper electrodissolution in phosphoric acid for which a less parsimonious global model was obtained in a previous study. The third example is an exploratory case and concerns the cycle of rainfed wheat under semiarid climatic conditions as observed through a vegetation index derived from a spatial sensor.

  6. A global digital elevation model - GTOP030

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    1999-01-01

    GTOP030, the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) digital elevation model (DEM) of the Earth, provides the flrst global coverage of moderate resolution elevation data.  The original GTOP30 data set, which was developed over a 3-year period through a collaborative effort led by the USGS, was completed in 1996 at the USGS EROS Data Center in Sioux Falls, South Dakota.  The collaboration involved contributions of staffing, funding, or source data from cooperators including the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the United Nations Environment Programme Global Resource Information Database (UNEP/GRID), the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), the Instituto Nacional de Estadistica Geografia e Informatica (INEGI) of Mexico, the Geographical Survey Institute (GSI) of Japan, Manaaki Whenua Landcare Research of New Zealand, and the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR). In 1999, work was begun on an update to the GTOP030 data set. Additional data sources are being incorporated into GTOP030 with an enhanced and improved data set planned for release in 2000.

  7. Modeling Global Change in Local Places: Capturing Global Change and Local Impacts in a Global Land System Change Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Verburg, P.; Eitelberg, D.; Ornetsmueller, C.; van Vliet, J.

    2015-12-01

    Global land use models are driven by demands for food and urban space. However, at the same time many transitions in land use and land cover are driven by societal changes and the demand for a wide range of landscape functions or ecosystem services, including the conservation of biodiversity, regulation of climate and floods, and recreation. Some of these demands lead to tele-connected land use change through the transport of good and services, others are place-based and shape the local realities of land system change. Most current land use change models focus on land cover changes alone and ignore the importance of changes in land management and landscape configuration that affect climate, biodiversity and the provisioning of ecosystem services. This talk will present an alternative approach to global land use modelling based on the simulation of changes in land systems in response to a wide set of ecosystem service demands. Simulations at global scale illustrate that accounting for demands for livestock products, carbon sequestration and biological conservation (following the Aichi targets) leads to different outcomes of land change models and allows the identification of synergies between carbon and biodiversity targets. An application in Laos indicates the complex transitions in land systems and landscapes that occur upon the transition from shifting cultivation to permanent agriculture and tree-crop plantations. We discuss the implications of such land system representations for Earth system modelling.

  8. Aeras: A next generation global atmosphere model

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Spotz, William F.; Smith, Thomas M.; Demeshko, Irina P.; Fike, Jeffrey A.

    2015-06-01

    Sandia National Laboratories is developing a new global atmosphere model named Aeras that is performance portable and supports the quantification of uncertainties. These next-generation capabilities are enabled by building Aeras on top of Albany, a code base that supports the rapid development of scientific application codes while leveraging Sandia's foundational mathematics and computer science packages in Trilinos and Dakota. Embedded uncertainty quantification (UQ) is an original design capability of Albany, and performance portability is a recent upgrade. Other required features, such as shell-type elements, spectral elements, efficient explicit and semi-implicit time-stepping, transient sensitivity analysis, and concurrent ensembles, were not componentsmore » of Albany as the project began, and have been (or are being) added by the Aeras team. We present early UQ and performance portability results for the shallow water equations.« less

  9. Aeras: A next generation global atmosphere model

    SciTech Connect

    Spotz, William F.; Smith, Thomas M.; Demeshko, Irina P.; Fike, Jeffrey A.

    2015-06-01

    Sandia National Laboratories is developing a new global atmosphere model named Aeras that is performance portable and supports the quantification of uncertainties. These next-generation capabilities are enabled by building Aeras on top of Albany, a code base that supports the rapid development of scientific application codes while leveraging Sandia's foundational mathematics and computer science packages in Trilinos and Dakota. Embedded uncertainty quantification (UQ) is an original design capability of Albany, and performance portability is a recent upgrade. Other required features, such as shell-type elements, spectral elements, efficient explicit and semi-implicit time-stepping, transient sensitivity analysis, and concurrent ensembles, were not components of Albany as the project began, and have been (or are being) added by the Aeras team. We present early UQ and performance portability results for the shallow water equations.

  10. Global tectonics from mantle convection models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coltice, N.

    2015-12-01

    The motions of the surface of the Earth are described using the theory of Plate Tectonics. Despite the fact that this theory has shaped modern geosciences it has some limitations, and among them the impossibility to evaluate the forces at the origin of the surface displacements and deformations. Hence important questions remain difficult to solve like the origin of the sizes of plates, forces driving mountain building or supercontinent dispersal... Tremendous progresses have been made in the past 15 years in mantle convection modelling. Especially, modern convection codes can solve for motion equations with complex material properties. Since the early 2000's, the development of pseudo-plastic rheologies contributed to produce convection models with plate-like behaviour: plates naturally emerge and interact with the flow in a self-organized manner. Using such models in 3D spherical geometry (computed with StagYY - Tackley, 2008), I will show that important questions on the global tectonics of the planet can be addressed now: the distribution of seafloor ages, the distribution of plate area, the lifetime of small and large plates or modes of plate reorganizations. Tackley, P.J., Modellng compressible mantle convection with large viscosity contrasts in a three-dimensional spherical shell using the yin-yang grid, Phys. Earth Planet. Inter, 171, 7-18 (2008).

  11. Modeling global and regional energy futures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rethinaraj, T. S. Gopi

    A rigorous econometric calibration of a model of energy consumption is presented using a comprehensive time series database on energy consumption and other socioeconomic indicators. The future of nuclear power in the evolving distribution of various energy sources is also examined. An important consideration for the long-term future of nuclear power concerns the rate of decline of the fraction of energy that comes from coal, which has historically declined on a global basis about linearly as a function of the cumulative use of coal. The use of fluid fossil fuels is also expected to eventually decline as the more readily extractable deposits are depleted. The investigation here is restricted to examining a comparatively simple model of the dynamics of competition between nuclear and other competing energy sources. Using a defined tropical/temperate disaggregation of the world, region-specific modeling results are presented for population growth, GDP growth, energy use, and carbon use compatible with a gradual transition to energy sustainability. Results for the fractions of energy use from various sources by grouping nine commercial primary energy sources into pairs of competing fuel categories are presented in combination with the idea of experiential learning and resource depletion. Analysis based on this division provides estimates for future evolution of the fractional shares, annual use rates, cumulative use of individual energy sources, and the economic attractiveness of spent nuclear fuel reprocessing. This unified approach helps to conceptualize and understand the dynamics of evolution of importance of various energy resources over time.

  12. Global Magnetohydrodynamic Modeling of the Solar Corona

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Linker, Jon A.

    1998-01-01

    The coronal magnetic field defines the structure of the solar corona, the position of the heliospheric current sheet, the regions of fast and slow solar wind, and the most likely sites of coronal mass ejections. There are few measurements of the magnetic fields in the corona, but the line-of-sight component of the global magnetic fields in the photosphere have been routinely measured for many years (for example, at Stanford's Wilcox Solar Observatory, and at the National Solar Observatory at Kitt Peak). The SOI/MDI instrument is now providing high-resolution full-disk magnetograms several times a day. Understanding the large-scale structure of the solar corona and inner heliosphere requires accurately mapping the measured photospheric magnetic field into the corona and outward. Ideally, a model should not only extrapolate the magnetic field, but should self-consistently reconstruct both the plasma and magnetic fields in the corona and solar wind. Support from our NASA SR&T contract has allowed us to develop three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) computations of the solar corona that incorporate observed photospheric magnetic fields into the boundary conditions. These calculations not only describe the magnetic field in the corona and interplanetary spice, but also predict the plasma properties as well. Our computations thus far have been successful in reproducing many aspects of both coronal and interplanetary data, including the structure of the streamer belt, the location of coronal hole boundaries, and the position and shape of the heliospheric current sheet. The most widely used technique for extrapolating the photospheric magnetic field into the corona and heliosphere are potential field models, such as the potential field source-surface model (PFSS),and the potential field current-sheet (PFCS) model

  13. BETR Global - A geographically explicit global-scale multimedia contaminant fate model

    SciTech Connect

    Macleod, M.; Waldow, H. von; Tay, P.; Armitage, J. M.; Wohrnschimmel, H.; Riley, W.; McKone, T. E.; Hungerbuhler, K.

    2011-04-01

    We present two new software implementations of the BETR Global multimedia contaminant fate model. The model uses steady-state or non-steady-state mass-balance calculations to describe the fate and transport of persistent organic pollutants using a desktop computer. The global environment is described using a database of long-term average monthly conditions on a 15{sup o} x 15{sup o} grid. We demonstrate BETR Global by modeling the global sources, transport, and removal of decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5).

  14. A GLOBAL PHYSICAL MODEL FOR CEPHEIDS

    SciTech Connect

    Pejcha, Ondrej; Kochanek, Christopher S. E-mail: ckochanek@astronomy.ohio-state.edu

    2012-04-01

    We perform a global fit to {approx}5000 radial velocity and {approx}177, 000 magnitude measurements in 29 photometric bands covering 0.3 {mu}m to 8.0 {mu}m distributed among 287 Galactic, Large Magellanic Cloud, and Small Magellanic Cloud Cepheids with P > 10 days. We assume that the Cepheid light curves and radial velocities are fully characterized by distance, reddening, and time-dependent radius and temperature variations. We construct phase curves of radius and temperature for periods between 10 and 100 days, which yield light-curve templates for all our photometric bands and can be easily generalized to any additional band. With only four to six parameters per Cepheid, depending on the existence of velocity data and the amount of freedom in the distance, the models have typical rms light and velocity curve residuals of 0.05 mag and 3.5 km s{sup -1}. The model derives the mean Cepheid spectral energy distribution and its derivative with respect to temperature, which deviate from a blackbody in agreement with metal-line and molecular opacity effects. We determine a mean reddening law toward the Cepheids in our sample, which is not consistent with standard assumptions in either the optical or near-IR. Based on stellar atmosphere models, we predict the biases in distance, reddening, and temperature determinations due to the metallicity and quantify the metallicity signature expected for our fit residuals. The observed residuals as a function of wavelength show clear differences between the individual galaxies, which are compatible with these predictions. In particular, we find that metal-poor Cepheids appear hotter. Finally, we provide a framework for optimally selecting filters that yield the smallest overall errors in Cepheid parameter determination or filter combinations for suppressing or enhancing the metallicity effects on distance determinations. We make our templates publicly available.

  15. Modeling the Sun's Global Meridional Circulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dikpati, M.

    2013-12-01

    Meridional circulation is an important ingredient for solar dynamo models, and hence knowing its speed, its profile in latitude and depth and its time variation is crucial for understanding the dynamo. Observations provide us with knowledge about its speed and profile at the surface, more accurately at low to mid-latiudes. Consensus has not been reached regarding what is happening in polar regions and at greater depths. The theory of meridional circulation with latitude and depth can give us guidance as to what may be happening in these regions. A hierarchy of complexity of approaches to develop this theory is possible. We have built a global hydro-dynamical model of meridional circulation that includes Coriolis forces from differential rotation, turbulent Reynolds stresses, pressure forces, and provision for thermodynamics. By specifying differential rotations motivated by observations, we find that the steady-state solutions from this model include the following patterns: i) one long cell with poleward surface flow and an equatorward return flow at the base of the convection zone when there is no density increase with depth; ii) a primary flow-cell with poleward surface flow at low to mid-latitudes, together with a second, high latitude, reversed equatorward flow cell in the case of a solar-like density increase with depth and a solar-like differential rotation. However, for solar-like turbulent viscosity, the meridional flow speeds are much larger than observed, implying that an additional physical mechanism is needed that works against the meridional flow. The most likely candidate is a negative buoyancy force arising from small departures of the radial temperature gradient from the adiabatic gradient. There are several possible mechanisms for producing such an effect, but none can be defined well from available observations.

  16. A Data-driven Model for the Global Coronal Evolution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feng, Xueshang; Jiang, Chaowei; Xiang, Changqing; Zhao, Xuepu; Wu, S. T.

    2012-10-01

    This work is devoted to the construction of a data-driven model for the study of the dynamic evolution of the global corona that can respond continuously to the changing of the photospheric magnetic field. The data-driven model consists of a surface flux transport (SFT) model and a global three-dimensional (3D) magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) coronal model. The SFT model is employed to produce the global time-varying and self-consistent synchronic snapshots of the photospheric magnetic field as the input to drive our 3D numerical global coronal AMR-CESE-MHD model on an overset grid of Yin-Yang overlapping structure. The SFT model and the 3D global coronal model are coupled through the boundary condition of the projected characteristic method. Numerical results of the coronal evolution from 1996 September 4 to October 29 provide a good comparison with multiply observed coronal images.

  17. A DATA-DRIVEN MODEL FOR THE GLOBAL CORONAL EVOLUTION

    SciTech Connect

    Feng Xueshang; Jiang Chaowei; Xiang Changqing; Zhao Xuepu; Wu, S. T. E-mail: cwjiang@spaceweather.ac.cn E-mail: xpzhao@sun.stanford.edu

    2012-10-10

    This work is devoted to the construction of a data-driven model for the study of the dynamic evolution of the global corona that can respond continuously to the changing of the photospheric magnetic field. The data-driven model consists of a surface flux transport (SFT) model and a global three-dimensional (3D) magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) coronal model. The SFT model is employed to produce the global time-varying and self-consistent synchronic snapshots of the photospheric magnetic field as the input to drive our 3D numerical global coronal AMR-CESE-MHD model on an overset grid of Yin-Yang overlapping structure. The SFT model and the 3D global coronal model are coupled through the boundary condition of the projected characteristic method. Numerical results of the coronal evolution from 1996 September 4 to October 29 provide a good comparison with multiply observed coronal images.

  18. Global Magnetohydrodynamic Modeling of the Solar Corona

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Linker, Jon A.

    1997-01-01

    Under this contract, we have continued our investigations of the large scale structure of the solar corona and inner heliosphere using global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations. These computations have also formed the basis for studies of coronal mass ejections (CMES) using realistic coronal configurations. We have developed a technique for computing realistic magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) computations of the solar corona and inner heliosphere. To perform computations that can be compared with specific observations, it is necessary to incorporate solar observations into the boundary conditions. We have used the Wilcox Solar Observatory synoptic maps (collected during a solar rotation by daily measurements of the line-of-sight magnetic field at central meridian) to specify the radial magnetic field (B,) at the photosphere. For the initial condition, we use a potential magnetic field consistent with the specified distribution of B, at the lower boundary, and a wind solution consistent with the specified plasma density and temperature at the solar surface. Together this initial condition forms a (non-equilibrium) approximation of the state of the solar corona for the time-dependent MHD computation. The MHD equations are then integrated in time to steady state. Here we describe solutions relevant to a recent solar eclipse, as well as Ulysses observations. We have also developed a model configuration of solar minimum, useful for studying CME initiation and propagation.

  19. New Global Bathymetry and Topography Model Grids

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, W. H.; Sandwell, D. T.; Marks, K. M.

    2008-12-01

    A new version of the "Smith and Sandwell" global marine topography model is available in two formats. A one-arc-minute Mercator projected grid covering latitudes to +/- 80.738 degrees is available in the "img" file format. Also available is a 30-arc-second version in latitude and longitude coordinates from pole to pole, supplied as tiles covering the same areas as the SRTM30 land topography data set. The new effort follows the Smith and Sandwell recipe, using publicly available and quality controlled single- and multi-beam echo soundings where possible and filling the gaps in the oceans with estimates derived from marine gravity anomalies observed by satellite altimetry. The altimeter data have been reprocessed to reduce the noise level and improve the spatial resolution [see Sandwell and Smith, this meeting]. The echo soundings database has grown enormously with new infusions of data from the U.S. Naval Oceanographic Office (NAVO), the National Geospatial-intelligence Agency (NGA), hydrographic offices around the world volunteering through the International Hydrographic Organization (IHO), and many other agencies and academic sources worldwide. These new data contributions have filled many holes: 50% of ocean grid points are within 8 km of a sounding point, 75% are within 24 km, and 90% are within 57 km. However, in the remote ocean basins some gaps still remain: 5% of the ocean grid points are more than 85 km from the nearest sounding control, and 1% are more than 173 km away. Both versions of the grid include a companion grid of source file numbers, so that control points may be mapped and traced to sources. We have compared the new model to multi-beam data not used in the compilation and find that 50% of differences are less than 25 m, 95% of differences are less than 130 m, but a few large differences remain in areas of poor sounding control and large-amplitude gravity anomalies. Land values in the solution are taken from SRTM30v2, GTOPO30 and ICESAT data

  20. Global Tectonics of Enceladus: Numerical Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Czechowski, Leszek

    2016-10-01

    Introduction: Enceladus, a satellite of Saturn, is the smallest celestial body in the Solar System where volcanic and tectonic activities are observed. Every second, the mass of 200 kg is ejected into space from the South Polar Terrain (SPT) – [1]. The loss of matter from the body's interior should lead to global compression of the crust. Typical effects of compression are: thrust faults, folding and subduction. However, such forms are not dominant on Enceladus. We propose here special tectonic process that could explain this paradox. Our hypotheses states that the mass loss from SPT is the main driving mechanism of the following tectonic processes: subsidence of SPT, flow in the mantle and motion of adjacent tectonic plates. The hypotheses is presented in [2], [3] and[4].We suggest that the loss of the volatiles results in a void, an instability, and motion of solid matter to fill the void. The motion is presented at the Fig.1 and includes:Subsidence of the 'lithosphere' of SPT.Flow of the matter in the mantle.Motion of plates adjacent to SPT towards the active regionMethods and results: The numerical model of processes presented is developed. It is based on the equations of continuous media..If emerging void is being filled by the subsidence of SPT only, then the velocity of subsidence is 0.05 mmyr-1. However, numerical calculations indicate that all three types of motion are usually important. The role of a given motion depends on the viscosity distribution. Generally, for most of the models the subsidence is 0.02 mmyr-1, but mantle flow and plates' motion also play a role in filling the void. The preliminary results of the numerical model indicate also that the velocity of adjacent plates could be 0.02 mmyr-1 for the Newtonian rheology.Note that in our model the reduction of the crust area is not a result of compression but it is a result of the plate sinking. Therefore the compressional surface features do not have to be dominant. The SPT does not have to be

  1. Global gravity field models and their use for geophysical modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pail, R.

    2015-12-01

    During the last decade, the successful operation of the dedicated satellite missions GOCE and GRACE have revolutionized our picture of the Earth's gravity field. They delivered static global gravity field maps with high and homogeneous accuracy for spatial length-scales down to 70-80 km. The current satellite-only models of the fifth generation including GOCE data have reached accuracies of about 2 cm in geoid height and less than 0.7 mGal in gravity anomalies at 100 km spatial half-wavelength. However, the spatial resolution of gravity models derived from satellite data is limited. Since precise knowledge of the Earth's gravity field structure with very high resolution is essential in solid Earth applications such as lithospheric modelling, geological interpretation and exploration geophysics, satellite-only models are complemented by combined gravity field models, which contain very high-resolution gravity field information obtained by terrestrial gravity measurements over continents, and satellite altimetry over the oceans. To further increase the spatial resolution beyond 10-20 km, measured terrestrial and satellite data can also be augmented by high-resolution gravity field signals synthesized from topographic models. In this contribution an overview of the construction of satellite-only and combined global gravity field models is given. The specific characteristics of the individual input data and the resulting models will be assessed, and their impact for geophysical modelling will be discussed. On the basis of selected case studies, commission and omission errors and thus the contribution and impact of satellite gravity data on gravity field applications will be quantified, and the benefit of current satellite gravity data shall be investigated and demonstrated. Future gravity field missions beyond GRACE Follow-On will provide global gravity field information with further increased accuracy, spatial and temporal resolution. In an international initiative

  2. Global Nonlinear Parametric Modeling with Application to F-16 Aerodynamics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Morelli, Eugene A.

    1997-01-01

    A global nonlinear parametric modeling technique is described and demonstrated. The technique uses multivariate orthogonal modeling functions generated from the data to determine nonlinear model structure, then expands each retained modeling function into an ordinary multivariate polynomial. The final model form is a finite multivariate power series expansion for the dependent variable in terms of the independent variables. Partial derivatives of the identified models can be used to assemble globally valid linear parameter varying models. The technique is demonstrated by identifying global nonlinear parametric models for nondimensional aerodynamic force and moment coefficients from a subsonic wind tunnel database for the F-16 fighter aircraft. Results show less than 10% difference between wind tunnel aerodynamic data and the nonlinear parameterized model for a simulated doublet maneuver at moderate angle of attack. Analysis indicated that the global nonlinear parametric models adequately captured the multivariate nonlinear aerodynamic functional dependence.

  3. Global Nonlinear Parametric Modeling with Application to F-16 Aerodynamics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Morelli, Eugene A.

    1998-01-01

    A global nonlinear parametric modeling technique is described and demonstrated. The technique uses multivariate orthogonal modeling functions generated from the data to determine nonlinear model structure, then expands each retained modeling function into an ordinary multivariate polynomial. The final model form is a finite multivariate power series expansion for the dependent variable in terms of the independent variables. Partial derivatives of the identified models can be used to assemble globally valid linear parameter varying models. The technique is demonstrated by identifying global nonlinear parametric models for nondimensional aerodynamic force and moment coefficients from a subsonic wind tunnel database for the F-16 fighter aircraft. Results show less than 10% difference between wind tunnel aerodynamic data and the nonlinear parameterized model for a simulated doublet maneuver at moderate angle of attack. Analysis indicated that the global nonlinear parametric models adequately captured the multivariate nonlinear aerodynamic functional dependence.

  4. Development of mpi_EPIC model for global agroecosystem modeling

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Kang, Shujiang; Wang, Dali; Jeff A. Nichols; Schuchart, Joseph; Kline, Keith L.; Wei, Yaxing; Ricciuto, Daniel M.; Wullschleger, Stan D.; Post, Wilfred M.; Izaurralde, R. Cesar

    2014-12-31

    Models that address policy-maker concerns about multi-scale effects of food and bioenergy production systems are computationally demanding. We integrated the message passing interface algorithm into the process-based EPIC model to accelerate computation of ecosystem effects. Simulation performance was further enhanced by applying the Vampir framework. When this enhanced mpi_EPIC model was tested, total execution time for a global 30-year simulation of a switchgrass cropping system was shortened to less than 0.5 hours on a supercomputer. The results illustrate that mpi_EPIC using parallel design can balance simulation workloads and facilitate large-scale, high-resolution analysis of agricultural production systems, management alternatives and environmentalmore » effects.« less

  5. Development of mpi_EPIC model for global agroecosystem modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Kang, Shujiang; Wang, Dali; Jeff A. Nichols; Schuchart, Joseph; Kline, Keith L.; Wei, Yaxing; Ricciuto, Daniel M.; Wullschleger, Stan D.; Post, Wilfred M.; Izaurralde, R. Cesar

    2014-12-31

    Models that address policy-maker concerns about multi-scale effects of food and bioenergy production systems are computationally demanding. We integrated the message passing interface algorithm into the process-based EPIC model to accelerate computation of ecosystem effects. Simulation performance was further enhanced by applying the Vampir framework. When this enhanced mpi_EPIC model was tested, total execution time for a global 30-year simulation of a switchgrass cropping system was shortened to less than 0.5 hours on a supercomputer. The results illustrate that mpi_EPIC using parallel design can balance simulation workloads and facilitate large-scale, high-resolution analysis of agricultural production systems, management alternatives and environmental effects.

  6. Global daily reference evapotranspiration modeling and evaluation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Senay, G.B.; Verdin, J.P.; Lietzow, R.; Melesse, Assefa M.

    2008-01-01

    Accurate and reliable evapotranspiration (ET) datasets are crucial in regional water and energy balance studies. Due to the complex instrumentation requirements, actual ET values are generally estimated from reference ET values by adjustment factors using coefficients for water stress and vegetation conditions, commonly referred to as crop coefficients. Until recently, the modeling of reference ET has been solely based on important weather variables collected from weather stations that are generally located in selected agro-climatic locations. Since 2001, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) has been producing six-hourly climate parameter datasets that are used to calculate daily reference ET for the whole globe at 1-degree spatial resolution. The U.S. Geological Survey Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science has been producing daily reference ET (ETo) since 2001, and it has been used on a variety of operational hydrological models for drought and streamflow monitoring all over the world. With the increasing availability of local station-based reference ET estimates, we evaluated the GDAS-based reference ET estimates using data from the California Irrigation Management Information System (CIMIS). Daily CIMIS reference ET estimates from 85 stations were compared with GDAS-based reference ET at different spatial and temporal scales using five-year daily data from 2002 through 2006. Despite the large difference in spatial scale (point vs. ???100 km grid cell) between the two datasets, the correlations between station-based ET and GDAS-ET were very high, exceeding 0.97 on a daily basis to more than 0.99 on time scales of more than 10 days. Both the temporal and spatial correspondences in trend/pattern and magnitudes between the two datasets were satisfactory, suggesting the reliability of using GDAS parameter-based reference ET for regional water and energy balance studies in many parts of the world

  7. Global Hydrological Hazard Evaluation System (Global BTOP) Using Distributed Hydrological Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gusyev, M.; Magome, J.; Hasegawa, A.; Takeuchi, K.

    2015-12-01

    A global hydrological hazard evaluation system based on the BTOP models (Global BTOP) is introduced and quantifies flood and drought hazards with simulated river discharges globally for historical, near real-time monitoring and climate change impact studies. The BTOP model utilizes a modified topographic index concept and simulates rainfall-runoff processes including snowmelt, overland flow, soil moisture in the root and unsaturated zones, sub-surface flow, and river flow routing. The current global BTOP is constructed from global data on 10-min grid and is available to conduct river basin analysis on local, regional, and global scale. To reduce the impact of a coarse resolution, topographical features of global BTOP were obtained using river network upscaling algorithm that preserves fine resolution characteristics of 3-arcsec HydroSHEDS and 30-arcsec Hydro1K datasets. In addition, GLCC-IGBP land cover (USGS) and the DSMW(FAO) were used for the root zone depth and soil properties, respectively. The long-term seasonal potential evapotranspiration within BTOP model was estimated by the Shuttleworth-Wallace model using climate forcing data CRU TS3.1 and a GIMMS-NDVI(UMD/GLCF). The global BTOP was run with globally available precipitation such APHRODITE dataset and showed a good statistical performance compared to the global and local river discharge data in the major river basins. From these simulated daily river discharges at each grid, the flood peak discharges of selected return periods were obtained using the Gumbel distribution with L-moments and the hydrological drought hazard was quantified using standardized runoff index (SRI). For the dynamic (near real-time) applications, the global BTOP model is run with GSMaP-NRT global precipitation and simulated daily river discharges are utilized in a prototype near-real time discharge simulation system (GFAS-Streamflow), which is used to issue flood peak discharge alerts globally. The global BTOP system and GFAS

  8. Modeling of reservoir operation in UNH global hydrological model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shiklomanov, Alexander; Prusevich, Alexander; Frolking, Steve; Glidden, Stanley; Lammers, Richard; Wisser, Dominik

    2015-04-01

    Climate is changing and river flow is an integrated characteristic reflecting numerous environmental processes and their changes aggregated over large areas. Anthropogenic impacts on the river flow, however, can significantly exceed the changes associated with climate variability. Besides of irrigation, reservoirs and dams are one of major anthropogenic factor affecting streamflow. They distort hydrological regime of many rivers by trapping of freshwater runoff, modifying timing of river discharge and increasing the evaporation rate. Thus, reservoirs is an integral part of the global hydrological system and their impacts on rivers have to be taken into account for better quantification and understanding of hydrological changes. We developed a new technique, which was incorporated into WBM-TrANS model (Water Balance Model-Transport from Anthropogenic and Natural Systems) to simulate river routing through large reservoirs and natural lakes based on information available from freely accessible databases such as GRanD (the Global Reservoir and Dam database) or NID (National Inventory of Dams for US). Different formulations were applied for unregulated spillway dams and lakes, and for 4 types of regulated reservoirs, which were subdivided based on main purpose including generic (multipurpose), hydropower generation, irrigation and water supply, and flood control. We also incorporated rules for reservoir fill up and draining at the times of construction and decommission based on available data. The model were tested for many reservoirs of different size and types located in various climatic conditions using several gridded meteorological data sets as model input and observed daily and monthly discharge data from GRDC (Global Runoff Data Center), USGS Water Data (US Geological Survey), and UNH archives. The best results with Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient in the range of 0.5-0.9 were obtained for temperate zone of Northern Hemisphere where most of large

  9. SEP modeling based on the ENLIL global heliospheric model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mays, M. L.; Luhmann, J. G.; Odstrcil, D.; Lee, C.; Bain, H. M.; Li, Y.; Schwadron, N.; Gorby, M.; Baker, D. N.; Dewey, R. M.; Larson, D. E.; Halekas, J. S.; Connerney, J. E. P.; von Rosenvinge, T. T.; Galvin, A. B.; McComas, D. J.

    2015-12-01

    The global 3D MHD WSA-ENLIL model provides a time-dependent background heliospheric description, into which a spherical shaped CME can be inserted. Understanding gradual SEP events (often driven by CMEs) well enough to forecast their properties at a given location requires a realistic picture of the global background solar wind through which the shocks and SEPs propagate. Accurate descriptions of the heliosphere, and hence modeled SEPs, are achieved by ENLIL only when the background solar wind is well-reproduced and CME parameters are accurate. It is clear from our preliminary runs that the CMEs sometimes generate multiple shocks, some of which fade while others merge and/or strengthen as they propagate. In order to completely characterize the SEP profiles observed at locations spread in longitude with the aid of these simulations it is essential to include all of the relevant CMEs and allow enough time for the events to propagate and interact. ENLIL provides solar wind parameters and additionally one can extract the magnetic topologies of observer-connected magnetic field lines and all plasma and shock properties along those field lines. ENLIL "likelihood/all-clear" forecasting maps provide expected intensity, timing/duration of events at locations throughout the heliosphere with "possible SEP affected areas" color-coded based on shock strength. ENLIL simulations are also useful to drive SEP models such as the Solar Energetic Particle Model (SEPMOD) and Earth-Moon-Mars Radiation Environment Module (EMMREM). In this presentation we demonstrate case studies of SEP event modeling at locations spread in longitude based on WSA-ENLIL+Cone simulations.

  10. Global warming description using Daisyworld model with greenhouse gases.

    PubMed

    Paiva, Susana L D; Savi, Marcelo A; Viola, Flavio M; Leiroz, Albino J K

    2014-11-01

    Daisyworld is an archetypal model of the earth that is able to describe the global regulation that can emerge from the interaction between life and environment. This article proposes a model based on the original Daisyworld considering greenhouse gases emission and absorption, allowing the description of the global warming phenomenon. Global and local analyses are discussed evaluating the influence of greenhouse gases in the planet dynamics. Numerical simulations are carried out showing the general qualitative behavior of the Daisyworld for different scenarios that includes solar luminosity variations and greenhouse gases effect. Nonlinear dynamics perspective is of concern discussing a way that helps the comprehension of the global warming phenomenon.

  11. Modeling the Global Workplace Using Emerging Technologies

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dorazio, Patricia; Hickok, Corey

    2008-01-01

    The Fall 2006 term of COM495, Senior Practicum in Communication, offered communication and information design students the privilege of taking part in a transatlantic intercultural virtual project. To emulate real world experience in today's global workplace, these students researched and completed a business communication project with German…

  12. Atmospheric Sulfur Cycle Simulated in The Global Model GOCART: Model Description and Global Properties

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chin, Mian; Rood, Richard B.; Lin, Shian-Jiann; Mueller, Jean-Francois; Thompson, Anne M.

    2000-01-01

    The Georgia Tech/Goddard Global Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model is used to simulate the atmospheric sulfur cycle. The model uses the simulated meteorological data from the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS). Global sulfur budgets from a 6-year simulation for SO2, sulfate, dimethylsulfide (DMS), and methanesulfonic acid (MSA) are presented in this paper. In a normal year without major volcanic perturbations, about 20% of the sulfate precursor emission is from natural sources (biogenic and volcanic) and 80% is anthropogenic: the same sources contribute 339% and 67% respectively to the total sulfate burden. A sulfate production efficiency of 0.41 - 0.42 is estimated in the model, an efficiency which is defined as a ratio of the amount oi sulfate produced to the total amount of SO2 emitted and produced in the atmosphere. This value indicates that less than half of the SO2 entering the atmosphere contributes to the sulfate production, the rest being removed by dry and wet depositions. In a simulation for 1990, we estimate a total sulfate production of 39 Tg S /yr with 36% and 64% respectively from in-air and in-cloud oxidation of SO2. We also demonstrate that major volcanic eruptions, such as the Mt. Pinatubo eruption in 1991, can significantly change the sulfate formation pathways, distributions, abundance, and lifetime. Comparison with other models shows that the parameterizations for wet removal or wet production of sulfate are the most critical factors in determining the burdens of SO2 and sulfate. Therefore, a priority for future research should be to reduce the large uncertainties associated with the wet physical and chemical processes.

  13. Global Model Analysis by Parameter Space Partitioning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pitt, Mark A.; Kim, Woojae; Navarro, Daniel J.; Myung, Jay I.

    2006-01-01

    To model behavior, scientists need to know how models behave. This means learning what other behaviors a model can produce besides the one generated by participants in an experiment. This is a difficult problem because of the complexity of psychological models (e.g., their many parameters) and because the behavioral precision of models (e.g.,…

  14. A Simple Model of Global Aerosol Indirect Effects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ghan, Steven J.; Smith, Steven J.; Wang, Minghuai; Zhang, Kai; Pringle, Kirsty; Carslaw, Kenneth; Pierce, Jeffrey; Bauer, Susanne; Adams, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Most estimates of the global mean indirect effect of anthropogenic aerosol on the Earth's energy balance are from simulations by global models of the aerosol lifecycle coupled with global models of clouds and the hydrologic cycle. Extremely simple models have been developed for integrated assessment models, but lack the flexibility to distinguish between primary and secondary sources of aerosol. Here a simple but more physically based model expresses the aerosol indirect effect (AIE) using analytic representations of cloud and aerosol distributions and processes. Although the simple model is able to produce estimates of AIEs that are comparable to those from some global aerosol models using the same global mean aerosol properties, the estimates by the simple model are sensitive to preindustrial cloud condensation nuclei concentration, preindustrial accumulation mode radius, width of the accumulation mode, size of primary particles, cloud thickness, primary and secondary anthropogenic emissions, the fraction of the secondary anthropogenic emissions that accumulates on the coarse mode, the fraction of the secondary mass that forms new particles, and the sensitivity of liquid water path to droplet number concentration. Estimates of present-day AIEs as low as 5 W/sq m and as high as 0.3 W/sq m are obtained for plausible sets of parameter values. Estimates are surprisingly linear in emissions. The estimates depend on parameter values in ways that are consistent with results from detailed global aerosol-climate simulation models, which adds to understanding of the dependence on AIE uncertainty on uncertainty in parameter values.

  15. Visualization and dissemination of global crustal models on virtual globes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhu, Liang-feng; Pan, Xin; Sun, Jian-zhong

    2016-05-01

    Global crustal models, such as CRUST 5.1 and its descendants, are very useful in a broad range of geoscience applications. The current method for representing the existing global crustal models relies heavily on dedicated computer programs to read and work with those models. Therefore, it is not suited to visualize and disseminate global crustal information to non-geological users. This shortcoming is becoming obvious as more and more people from both academic and non-academic institutions are interested in understanding the structure and composition of the crust. There is a pressing need to provide a modern, universal and user-friendly method to represent and visualize the existing global crustal models. In this paper, we present a systematic framework to easily visualize and disseminate the global crustal structure on virtual globes. Based on crustal information exported from the existing global crustal models, we first create a variety of KML-formatted crustal models with different levels of detail (LODs). And then the KML-formatted models can be loaded into a virtual globe for 3D visualization and model dissemination. A Keyhole Markup Language (KML) generator (Crust2KML) is developed to automatically convert crustal information obtained from the CRUST 1.0 model into KML-formatted global crustal models, and a web application (VisualCrust) is designed to disseminate and visualize those models over the Internet. The presented framework and associated implementations can be conveniently exported to other applications to support visualizing and analyzing the Earth's internal structure on both regional and global scales in a 3D virtual-globe environment.

  16. A Data-Driven Evolution Model for the Global Corona

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feng, X. S.; Jiang, C.; Xiang, C. Q.; Wu, S.

    2011-12-01

    In this work we have developed a new time-dependent global corona model for the study of dynamic evolution of the global corona that can respond continuously to the changing of the photospheric magnetogram. A surface flux transport (SFT) model is employed to produce the time-varying and self-consistent magnetogram with synoptic map as input. The global corona model is established with our newly-developed numerical code AMR-CESE-MHD on an overset grid of Yin-Yang overlapping structure. The SFT model and the three-dimensional global corona model is coupled through the boundary condition of projected-characteristic method. Numerical study of the coronal evolution from Carrington rotation 1913 to 1915 presents results comparable with multi-observed coronal images.

  17. Building a data sharing model for global genomic research.

    PubMed

    Kosseim, Patricia; Dove, Edward S; Baggaley, Carman; Meslin, Eric M; Cate, Fred H; Kaye, Jane; Harris, Jennifer R; Knoppers, Bartha M

    2014-01-01

    Data sharing models designed to facilitate global business provide insights for improving transborder genomic data sharing. We argue that a flexible, externally endorsed, multilateral arrangement, combined with an objective third-party assurance mechanism, can effectively balance privacy with the need to share genomic data globally.

  18. Advances in Global Magnetosphere Modeling at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuznetsova, Maria

    2016-07-01

    The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) hosts a set of state-of-the-art global magnetosphere models that are capable to reproduce a broad range of physical phenomena in Earth's magnetosphere. We will discuss successes and challenges in global magnetosphere modeling and the role of non-MHD effects on global dynamics.

  19. Global workspace model of consciousness and its electromagnetic correlates

    PubMed Central

    Prakash, Ravi; Prakash, Om; Prakash, Shashi; Abhishek, Priyadarshi; Gandotra, Sachin

    2008-01-01

    The global workspace of consciousness was proposed in its elementary framework by Baars, in 1982. Since the time of inception, there have been many speculations and modifications of this theory, but the central theme has remained the same, which refers to the global availability of information in the brain. However, the present understanding about the origin of this global workspace or its mechanism of operation is still deficient. One of the less-studied candidates for this global workspace is the electromagnetic field of the brain. The present work is a brief review of the theoretical underpinnings of the Global workspace model, in terms of its theoretical framework and neuroimaging evidences. Subsequently, we turn towards another broad group of theories of consciousness, in the form of electromagnetic field theories. We then proceed to highlight some electromagnetic correlates derived from these theories for this global access phenomenon. PMID:19893660

  20. A new global GIS architecture based on STQIE model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheng, Chengqi; Guan, Li; Guo, Shide; Pu, Guoliang; Sun, Min

    2007-06-01

    Global GIS is a system, which supports the huge data process and the global direct manipulation on global grid based on spheroid or ellipsoid surface. A new Global GIS architecture based on STQIE model is designed in this paper, according to the computer cluster theory, the space-time integration technology and the virtual real technology. There is four-level protocol framework and three-layer data management pattern of Global GIS based on organization, management and publication of spatial information in this architecture. In this paper a global 3D prototype system is developed taking advantage of C++ language according to the above thought. This system integrated the simulation system with GIS, and supported display of multi-resolution DEM, image and multi-dimensional static or dynamic 3D objects.

  1. Global Regularity for Several Incompressible Fluid Models with Partial Dissipation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Jiahong; Xu, Xiaojing; Ye, Zhuan

    2016-09-01

    This paper examines the global regularity problem on several 2D incompressible fluid models with partial dissipation. They are the surface quasi-geostrophic (SQG) equation, the 2D Euler equation and the 2D Boussinesq equations. These are well-known models in fluid mechanics and geophysics. The fundamental issue of whether or not they are globally well-posed has attracted enormous attention. The corresponding models with partial dissipation may arise in physical circumstances when the dissipation varies in different directions. We show that the SQG equation with either horizontal or vertical dissipation always has global solutions. This is in sharp contrast with the inviscid SQG equation for which the global regularity problem remains outstandingly open. Although the 2D Euler is globally well-posed for sufficiently smooth data, the associated equations with partial dissipation no longer conserve the vorticity and the global regularity is not trivial. We are able to prove the global regularity for two partially dissipated Euler equations. Several global bounds are also obtained for a partially dissipated Boussinesq system.

  2. Hybrid and adaptive meta-model-based global optimization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gu, J.; Li, G. Y.; Dong, Z.

    2012-01-01

    As an efficient and robust technique for global optimization, meta-model-based search methods have been increasingly used in solving complex and computation intensive design optimization problems. In this work, a hybrid and adaptive meta-model-based global optimization method that can automatically select appropriate meta-modelling techniques during the search process to improve search efficiency is introduced. The search initially applies three representative meta-models concurrently. Progress towards a better performing model is then introduced by selecting sample data points adaptively according to the calculated values of the three meta-models to improve modelling accuracy and search efficiency. To demonstrate the superior performance of the new algorithm over existing search methods, the new method is tested using various benchmark global optimization problems and applied to a real industrial design optimization example involving vehicle crash simulation. The method is particularly suitable for design problems involving computation intensive, black-box analyses and simulations.

  3. Modeling monthly mean variation of the solar global irradiation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vindel, J. M.; Polo, J.; Zarzalejo, L. F.

    2015-01-01

    The monthly mean variation of the solar global reaching the Earth's surface has been characterized at a global level by a regression model. This model considers the monthly variation itself (to different horizons and even the maximum annual variation) as the study variable, and it is applied without using data corresponding to measured meteorological variable. Two explicative variables have been used, the variation of the extraterrestrial irradiation and the variation of the clear sky global horizontal irradiation. The work has been carried out from datasets including average global daily solar irradiation for each month of the year measured on the ground. The model quality has been proven to be very dependent of the temporal variation considered, in such a way that higher variations, that is to say, higher distances between months, lead to an improvement in the model outcomes.

  4. Space-time ARIMA modelling of global TEC maps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choliy, V.

    2009-04-01

    Autoregressive integrated moving average modelling technique is used to global TEC maps from Ionex for the purpose of forecasting. When used on parallel or CUDA-based computers this methodology produces very quick forecasts without loose of details.

  5. A traceability framework for diagnostics of global land models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luo, Yiqi; Xia, Jianyang; Liang, Junyi; Jiang, Lifen; Shi, Zheng; KC, Manoj; Hararuk, Oleksandra; Rafique, Rashid; Wang, Ying-Ping

    2015-04-01

    The biggest impediment to model diagnostics and improvement at present is model intractability. The more processes incorporated, the more difficult it becomes to understand or evaluate model behavior. As a result, uncertainty in predictions among global land models cannot be easily diagnosed and attributed to their sources. We have recently developed an approach to analytically decompose a complex land model into traceable components based on mutually independent properties of modeled core biogeochemical processes. As all global land carbon models share those common properties, this traceability framework is applicable to all of them to improve their tractability. Indeed, we have applied the traceability framework to improve model diagnostics in several aspects. First, we have applied the framework to the Australian Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE) model and Community Land Model version 3.5 (CLM3.5) to identify sources of those model differences. The major causes of different predictions were found to be parameter setting related to carbon input and baseline residence times between the two models. Second, we have used the framework to diagnose impacts of adding nitrogen processes into CABLE on its carbon simulation. Adding nitrogen processes not only reduces net primary production but also shortens residence times in the CABLE model. Third, the framework helps isolate components of CLM3.5 for data assimilation. Data assimilation with global land models has been computationally extremely difficult. By isolating traceable components, we have improved parameterization of CLM3.4 related to soil organic decomposition, microbial kinetics and carbon use efficiency, and litter decomposition. Further, we are currently developing the traceability framework to analyze transient simulations of models that were involved in the coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to improve our understanding on parameter space of global carbon models. This

  6. Multi-Scale Modeling of Global of Magnetospheric Dynamics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kuznetsova, M. M.; Hesse, M.; Rastatter, L.; Toth, G.; DeZeeuw, D.; Gombosi, T.

    2010-01-01

    To understand the role of magnetic reconnection in global evolution of magnetosphere and to place spacecraft observations into global context it is essential to perform global simulations with physically motivated model of dissipation that is capable to reproduce reconnection rates predicted by kinetic models. In our efforts to bridge the gap between small scale kinetic modeling and global simulations we introduced an approach that allows to quantify the interaction between large-scale global magnetospheric dynamics and microphysical processes in diffusion regions near reconnection sites. We utilized the high resolution global MHD code BATSRUS and incorporate primary mechanism controlling the dissipation in the vicinity of reconnection sites in terms of kinetic corrections to induction and energy equations. One of the key elements of the multiscale modeling of magnetic reconnection is identification of reconnection sites and boundaries of surrounding diffusion regions where non-MHD corrections are required. Reconnection site search in the equatorial plane implemented in our previous studies is extended to cusp and magnetopause reconnection, as well as for magnetotail reconnection in realistic asymmetric configurations. The role of feedback between the non-ideal effects in diffusion regions and global magnetosphere structure and dynamics will be discussed.

  7. [The population problem in global modeling].

    PubMed

    Naidenova, P

    1986-01-01

    Developments during the past 15 years in population modeling are critically reviewed. The author notes that while population variables were treated as endogenous in earlier models developed by the Club of Rome, later models have treated such variables as exogenous. The need to link demographic factors to structural changes and economic growth, in accordance with Marxist-Leninist population theory, is noted. (SUMMARY IN ENG AND RUS) PMID:12280533

  8. Usefulness and limitations of global flood risk models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ward, Philip; Jongman, Brenden; Salamon, Peter; Simpson, Alanna; Bates, Paul; De Groeve, Tom; Muis, Sanne; Coughlan de Perez, Erin; Rudari, Roberto; Mark, Trigg; Winsemius, Hessel

    2016-04-01

    Global flood risk models are now a reality. Initially, their development was driven by a demand from users for first-order global assessments to identify risk hotspots. Relentless upward trends in flood damage over the last decade have enhanced interest in such assessments. The adoption of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage Associated with Climate Change Impacts have made these efforts even more essential. As a result, global flood risk models are being used more and more in practice, by an increasingly large number of practitioners and decision-makers. However, they clearly have their limits compared to local models. To address these issues, a team of scientists and practitioners recently came together at the Global Flood Partnership meeting to critically assess the question 'What can('t) we do with global flood risk models?'. The results of this dialogue (Ward et al., 2013) will be presented, opening a discussion on similar broader initiatives at the science-policy interface in other natural hazards. In this contribution, examples are provided of successful applications of global flood risk models in practice (for example together with the World Bank, Red Cross, and UNISDR), and limitations and gaps between user 'wish-lists' and model capabilities are discussed. Finally, a research agenda is presented for addressing these limitations and reducing the gaps. Ward et al., 2015. Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate2742

  9. Including eddies in global ocean models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Semtner, Albert J.; Chervin, Robert M.

    The ocean is a turbulent fluid that is driven by winds and by surface exchanges of heat and moisture. It is as important as the atmosphere in governing climate through heat distribution, but so little is known about the ocean that it remains a “final frontier” on the face of the Earth. Many ocean currents are truly global in extent, such as the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and the “conveyor belt” that connects the North Atlantic and North Pacific oceans by flows around the southern tips of Africa and South America. It has long been a dream of some oceanographers to supplement the very limited observational knowledge by reconstructing the currents of the world ocean from the first principles of physics on a computer. However, until very recently, the prospect of doing this was thwarted by the fact that fluctuating currents known as “mesoscale eddies” could not be explicitly included in the calculation.

  10. Climate Modeling and Projections of Global Warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fung, Inez

    2008-04-01

    Physics of the climate system is captured, with varying degrees of success, in climate models used to hindcast paleoclimates and project future climate change. This talk reviews the formulation of climate models, validation/falsification of processes included, and presents research challenges for advancing projections of future climate change.

  11. Observatory enabled modeling of the Global Carbon Cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schimel, D.; Fox, A. M.; Moore, D. J.; Sacks, W. J.; Berukoff, S. J.

    2011-12-01

    A central challenge to global modeling of the terrestrial carbon cycle is the scaling of organism-scale characteristics to large regions. Emerging ground- and space-based global observatories will allow coupling observations directly to state and parameter values in a state-of-the-art coupled carbon climate model. Model-data fusion will qualitatively improve understanding and forecasting of interannual to centennial scale responses of terrestrial ecosystems and carbon cycle to global environmental change. This modeling study will use the baseline measures of global terrestrial ecosystem biochemical composition to reduce uncertainty in forecasting E&CC responses to climate and land-use change. The NCAR Community Land Model (Community Land Model - Carbon/Nitrogen or CLM-CN) simulates carbon, water and energy exchange at the land surface and includes detailed parameters governing plant-mediated fluxes and storage NEON and NCAR are developing a data assimilation version of the CLM, designed to work with new observatory data. Data requirements of CLM are quite different from earlier generation land surface models because the nitrogen cycle is explicitly simulated. Nitrogen concentrations regulate plant photosynthesis and decomposition of dead organic matter but their within biome and global distributions are poorly constrained by observations. Developing a Observatory-enabled version of the CLM, and the cyberinfrastructure to support it creates a very different set of requirements for modeling and observatory information systems than traditional approaches. In the talk, we will discuss briefly the science of carbon data assimilation and the observing requirements it generates.

  12. Global patterns of nitrogen limitation: confronting two global biogeochemical models with observations.

    PubMed

    Thomas, R Quinn; Zaehle, Sönke; Templer, Pamela H; Goodale, Christine L

    2013-10-01

    Projections of future changes in land carbon (C) storage using biogeochemical models depend on accurately modeling the interactions between the C and nitrogen (N) cycles. Here, we present a framework for analyzing N limitation in global biogeochemical models to explore how C-N interactions of current models compare to field observations, identify the processes causing model divergence, and identify future observation and experiment needs. We used a set of N-fertilization simulations from two global biogeochemical models (CLM-CN and O-CN) that use different approaches to modeling C-N interactions. On the global scale, net primary productivity (NPP) in the CLM-CN model was substantially more responsive to N fertilization than in the O-CN model. The most striking difference between the two models occurred for humid tropical forests, where the CLM-CN simulated a 62% increase in NPP at high N addition levels (30 g N m(-2) yr(-1)), while the O-CN predicted a 2% decrease in NPP due to N fertilization increasing plant respiration more than photosynthesis. Across 35 temperate and boreal forest sites with field N-fertilization experiments, we show that the CLM-CN simulated a 46% increase in aboveground NPP in response to N, which exceeded the observed increase of 25%. In contrast, the O-CN only simulated a 6% increase in aboveground NPP at the N-fertilization sites. Despite the small response of NPP to N fertilization, the O-CN model accurately simulated ecosystem retention of N and the fate of added N to vegetation when compared to empirical (15) N tracer application studies. In contrast, the CLM-CN predicted lower total ecosystem N retention and partitioned more losses to volatilization than estimated from observed N budgets of small catchments. These results point to the need for model improvements in both models in order to enhance the accuracy with which global C-N cycle feedbacks are simulated.

  13. The status and challenge of global fire modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hantson, Stijn; Arneth, Almut; Harrison, Sandy P.; Kelley, Douglas I.; Prentice, I. Colin; Rabin, Sam S.; Archibald, Sally; Mouillot, Florent; Arnold, Steve R.; Artaxo, Paulo; Bachelet, Dominique; Ciais, Philippe; Forrest, Matthew; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hickler, Thomas; Kaplan, Jed O.; Kloster, Silvia; Knorr, Wolfgang; Lasslop, Gitta; Li, Fang; Mangeon, Stephane; Melton, Joe R.; Meyn, Andrea; Sitch, Stephen; Spessa, Allan; van der Werf, Guido R.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Yue, Chao

    2016-06-01

    Biomass burning impacts vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling, atmospheric chemistry, and climate, with sometimes deleterious socio-economic impacts. Under future climate projections it is often expected that the risk of wildfires will increase. Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes, using either well-founded empirical relationships or process-based models with good predictive skill. While a large variety of models exist today, it is still unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. This is the central question underpinning the creation of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), an international initiative to compare and evaluate existing global fire models against benchmark data sets for present-day and historical conditions. In this paper we review how fires have been represented in fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and give an overview of the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling. We indicate which challenges still remain in global fire modelling and stress the need for a comprehensive model evaluation and outline what lessons may be learned from FireMIP.

  14. Validation of a Global Hydrodynamic Flood Inundation Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bates, P. D.; Smith, A.; Sampson, C. C.; Alfieri, L.; Neal, J. C.

    2014-12-01

    In this work we present first validation results for a hyper-resolution global flood inundation model. We use a true hydrodynamic model (LISFLOOD-FP) to simulate flood inundation at 1km resolution globally and then use downscaling algorithms to determine flood extent and depth at 90m spatial resolution. Terrain data are taken from a custom version of the SRTM data set that has been processed specifically for hydrodynamic modelling. Return periods of flood flows along the entire global river network are determined using: (1) empirical relationships between catchment characteristics and index flood magnitude in different hydroclimatic zones derived from global runoff data; and (2) an index flood growth curve, also empirically derived. Bankful return period flow is then used to set channel width and depth, and flood defence impacts are modelled using empirical relationships between GDP, urbanization and defence standard of protection. The results of these simulations are global flood hazard maps for a number of different return period events from 1 in 5 to 1 in 1000 years. We compare these predictions to flood hazard maps developed by national government agencies in the UK and Germany using similar methods but employing detailed local data, and to observed flood extent at a number of sites including St. Louis, USA and Bangkok in Thailand. Results show that global flood hazard models can have considerable skill given careful treatment to overcome errors in the publicly available data that are used as their input.

  15. Ecological consequences of global bifurcations in some food chain models.

    PubMed

    van Voorn, George A K; Kooi, Bob W; Boer, Martin P

    2010-08-01

    Food chain models of ordinary differential equations (ode's) are often used in ecology to gain insight in the dynamics of populations of species, and the interactions of these species with each other and their environment. One powerful analysis technique is bifurcation analysis, focusing on the changes in long-term (asymptotic) behaviour under parameter variation. For the detection of local bifurcations there exists standardised software, but until quite recently most software did not include any capabilities for the detection and continuation of global bifurcations. We focus here on the occurrence of global bifurcations in four food chain models, and discuss the implications of their occurrence. In two stoichiometric models (one piecewise continuous, one smooth) there exists a homoclinic bifurcation, that results in the disappearance of a limit cycle attractor. Instead, a stable positive equilibrium becomes the global attractor. The models are also capable of bistability. In two three-dimensional models a Shil'nikov homoclinic bifurcation functions as the organising centre of chaos, while tangencies of homoclinic cycle-to-cycle connections 'cut' the chaotic attractors, which is associated with boundary crises. In one model this leads to extinction of the top predator, while in the other model hysteresis occurs. The types of ecological events occurring because of a global bifurcation will be categorized. Global bifurcations are always catastrophic, leading to the disappearance or merging of attractors. However, there is no 1-on-1 coupling between global bifurcation type and the possible ecological consequences. This only emphasizes the importance of including global bifurcations in the analysis of food chain models.

  16. Ecological consequences of global bifurcations in some food chain models.

    PubMed

    van Voorn, George A K; Kooi, Bob W; Boer, Martin P

    2010-08-01

    Food chain models of ordinary differential equations (ode's) are often used in ecology to gain insight in the dynamics of populations of species, and the interactions of these species with each other and their environment. One powerful analysis technique is bifurcation analysis, focusing on the changes in long-term (asymptotic) behaviour under parameter variation. For the detection of local bifurcations there exists standardised software, but until quite recently most software did not include any capabilities for the detection and continuation of global bifurcations. We focus here on the occurrence of global bifurcations in four food chain models, and discuss the implications of their occurrence. In two stoichiometric models (one piecewise continuous, one smooth) there exists a homoclinic bifurcation, that results in the disappearance of a limit cycle attractor. Instead, a stable positive equilibrium becomes the global attractor. The models are also capable of bistability. In two three-dimensional models a Shil'nikov homoclinic bifurcation functions as the organising centre of chaos, while tangencies of homoclinic cycle-to-cycle connections 'cut' the chaotic attractors, which is associated with boundary crises. In one model this leads to extinction of the top predator, while in the other model hysteresis occurs. The types of ecological events occurring because of a global bifurcation will be categorized. Global bifurcations are always catastrophic, leading to the disappearance or merging of attractors. However, there is no 1-on-1 coupling between global bifurcation type and the possible ecological consequences. This only emphasizes the importance of including global bifurcations in the analysis of food chain models. PMID:20447411

  17. Data-Driven Global Coronal Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Linker, Jon; Mikic, Zoran; Riley, Pete; Henney, Carl; Arge, Charles; Lionello, Roberto; Downs, Cooper

    MHD simulations of the solar corona based on maps of the solar magnetic field have been demonstrated to describe many aspects of coronal structure. However, these models are typically integrated to steady state, using synoptic or daily-updated magnetic maps to derive the boundary conditions. The Sun's magnetic flux is always evolving, and these changes in the flux affect the structure and dynamics of the corona and heliosphere. In this presentation, we describe an approach to evolutionary models of the corona and solar wind, using time-dependent boundary conditions. A key aspect of our approach is the use of the Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric flux Transport (ADAPT) model to develop time-evolving boundary conditions for the magnetic field. ADAPT incorporates data assimilation techniques into the Worden and Harvey (2000) flux evolution model, making it an especially suitable candidate for providing boundary conditions to MHD models. We describe initial results and their implications for coronal hole evolution and the origin of the slow solar wind.

  18. Towards a 1km resolution global flood risk model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bates, Paul; Neal, Jeff; Sampson, Chris; Smith, Andy

    2014-05-01

    Recent advances in computationally efficient numerical algorithms and new High Performance Computing architectures now make high (1-2km) resolution global hydrodynamic models a realistic proposition. However in many areas of the world the data sets and tools necessary to undertake such modelling do not currently exist. In particular, five major problems need to be resolved: (1) the best globally available terrain data (SRTM) was generated from X-band interferometric radar data which does not penetrate vegetation canopies and which has significant problems in determining ground elevations in urban areas; (2) a global river bathymetry data set does not currently exist; (3) most river channels globally are less than the smallest currently resolvable grid scale (1km) and therefore require a sub-grid treatment; (4) a means to estimate the magnitude of the T year flood at any point along the global river network does not currently exist; and (5) a large proportion of flood losses are generated by off-floodplain surface water flows which are not well represented in current hydrodynamic modelling systems. In this paper we propose solutions to each of these five issues as part of a concerted effort to develop a 1km (or better) resolution global flood hazard model. We describe the new numerical algorithms, computer architectures and computational resources used, and demonstrate solutions to the five previously intractable problems identified above. We conduct a validation study of the modelling against satellite imagery of major flooding on the Mississippi-Missouri confluence plain in the central USA before outlining a proof-of-concept regional study for SE Asia as a step towards a global scale model. For SE Asia we simulate flood hazard for ten different flood return periods over the entire Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, Malaysia and Laos region at 1km resolution and show that the modelling produces coherent, consistent and sensible simulations of extent and water depth.

  19. Modelling global multi-conjugated adaptive optics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Viotto, Valentina; Ragazzoni, Roberto; Magrin, Demetrio; Bergomi, Maria; Dima, Marco; Farinato, Jacopo; Marafatto, Luca; Greggio, Davide

    2014-08-01

    The recently proposed concept of Global MCAO (GMCAO) aims to look for Natural Guide Stars in a very wide technical Field of View (FoV), to increase the overall sky coverage, and deals with the consequent depth of focus reduction introducing numerically a quite-high number of Virtual Deformable Mirrors (VDMs), which are then the starting point for an optimization of the real DMs shapes for the correction of the -smaller- scientific FoV. To translate the GMCAO concept into a real system, a number of parameters requires to be analyzed and optimized, like the number of references and VDMs to be used, the technical FoV size, the spatial samplings, the sensing wavelength. These and some other major choices, like the open loop WFSs concept and design, will then drive the requirements and the performance of the system (e.g. limiting magnitude, linear response, and sensitivity). This paper collects some major results of the on-going study on the feasibility of an Adaptive Optics system for the E-ELT, based on GMCAO, with a particular emphasis on the sky coverage issue. Besides the sensitivity analysis of the optimization of the already mentioned parameters, such a topic involves the implementation of an IDL code simulation tool to estimate the system performance in terms of Strehl Ratio in a 2×2 arcmin FoV, when a variable number of NGSs and VDMs are used. Different technical FoV diameters for the references selection and various constellations can be also compared. This study could be the starting point for a dedicated laboratory testing and, in the future, an on-sky experiment at an 8m telescope with a "scaled down" demonstrator.

  20. Global ocean modeling on the Connection Machine

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, R.D.; Dukowicz, J.K.; Malone, R.C.

    1993-10-01

    The authors have developed a version of the Bryan-Cox-Semtner ocean model (Bryan, 1969; Semtner, 1976; Cox, 1984) for massively parallel computers. Such models are three-dimensional, Eulerian models that use latitude and longitude as the horizontal spherical coordinates and fixed depth levels as the vertical coordinate. The incompressible Navier-Stokes equations, with a turbulent eddy viscosity, and mass continuity equation are solved, subject to the hydrostatic and Boussinesq approximations. The traditional model formulation uses a rigid-lid approximation (vertical velocity = 0 at the ocean surface) to eliminate fast surface waves. These waves would otherwise require that a very short time step be used in numerical simulations, which would greatly increase the computational cost. To solve the equations with the rigid-lid assumption, the equations of motion are split into two parts: a set of twodimensional ``barotropic`` equations describing the vertically-averaged flow, and a set of three-dimensional ``baroclinic`` equations describing temperature, salinity and deviations of the horizontal velocities from the vertically-averaged flow.

  1. Efficient stencil assembly in global geodynamic models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bauer, Simon; Mohr, Marcus; Rüde, Ulrich; Wittmann, Markus

    2016-04-01

    In mantle circulation models the simulation domain is a thick spherical shell representing the earth's mantle. Typically, finite elements are the method of choice to account for the spherical geometry. The wide range of length scales involved in earth dynamics is a major challenge. Capturing localized features such as faulted plate boundaries requires local resolutions in the order of

  2. Radiative heating in global climate models

    SciTech Connect

    Baer, F.; Arsky, N.; Rocque, K.

    1996-04-01

    LWR algorithms from various GCMs vary significantly from one another for the same clear sky input data. This variability becomes pronounced when clouds are included. We demonstrate this effect by intercomparing the various models` output using observed data including clouds from ARM/CART data taken in Oklahoma.

  3. Global Attenuation Model of the Upper Mantle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adenis, A.; Debayle, E.; Ricard, Y. R.

    2015-12-01

    We present a three-dimensional shear attenuation model based on a massive surface wave data-set (372,629 Rayleigh waveforms analysed in the period range 50-300s by Debayle and Ricard, 2012). For each seismogram, this approach yields depth-dependent path average models of shear velocity and quality factor, and a set of fundamental and higher-mode dispersion and attenuation curves. We combine these attenuation measurements in a tomographic inversion after a careful rejection of the noisy data. We first remove data likely to be biased by a poor knowledge of the source. Then we assume that waves corresponding to events having close epicenters and recorded at the same station sample the same elastic and anelastic structure, we cluster the corresponding rays and average the attenuation measurements. Logarithms of the attenuations are regionalized using the non-linear east square formalism of Tarantola and Valette (1982), resulting in attenuation tomographic maps between 50s and 300s. After a first inversion, outlyers are rejected and a second inversion yields a moderate variance reduction of about 20%. We correct the attenuation curves for focusing effect using the linearized ray theory of Woodhouse and Wong (1986). Accounting for focussing effects allows building tomographic maps with variance reductions reaching 40%. In the period range 120-200s, the root mean square of the model perturbations increases from about 5% to 20%. Our 3-D attenuation models present strong agreement with surface tectonics at period lower than 200s. Areas of low attenuation are located under continents and areas of high attenuation are associated with oceans. Surprisingly, although mid oceanic ridges are located in attenuating regions, their signature, even if enhanced by focusing corrections, remains weaker than in the shear velocity models. Synthetic tests suggests that regularisation contributes to damp the attenuation signature of ridges, which could therefore be underestimated.

  4. Modelling of global change at the mesopause

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gruzdev, A.; Brasseur, G.

    2003-04-01

    Significant negative temperature trend at the northern hemisphere mesospause for winter season has been documented by different methods of observations. For studying mechanisms of the mesopause cooling, simulations with the use of the chemical dynamical radiative two-dimensional model named SOCRATES are used. Probable mechanisms of the observed cooling of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere can be of radiation as well as dynamical nature. Among these are changes in contents of greenhouse gases and changes in gravity wave momentum deposition affecting the meridional circulation in the upper mesosphere. Combined increase for the last 50 year, in accordance with the observed trends, in contents of CO2, methane, N2O, and water vapor as well as the lower troposphere warming results in a simulated cooling of a few K at the mesopause for winter and summer seasons. This shows that the trends in the contents of greenhouse gases and the lower troposphere temperature are not the only (and, probably, not the main) reason of the large cooling in the upper mesosphere, at least in the framework of a two-dimensional model. Long-term changes in the circulation resulting in changes of gravity wave momentum and energy deposition, which affects the circulation in the middle atmosphere, could also be responsible for this effect. As an example, the doubling of the model gravity wave forcing results in an essential cooling by several K at the northern hemisphere mesopause in winter. The simulated effect of combined changes in contents of greenhouse gases, low troposphere temperature, and doubling of the gravity wave forcing is the cooling of the model mesopause by 8-10 K in the middle-to-high latitudes of the northern hemisphere in winter, along with insignificant thermal effect in summer.

  5. CONSTABLE: A Global Climate Model for Classroom Use.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cerveny, Randall S.; And Others

    1985-01-01

    Described is the global climate model CONSTABLE (Climatic One-Dimensional Numerical Simulation of the Annual Balance of Latitudinal Energy), which can be used in undergraduate and graduate level climatology courses. Classroom exercises that can be used with the model are also included. (RM)

  6. Global Education: Towards a Quantum Model of Environmental Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Selby, David

    1999-01-01

    Presents a four-dimensional model of transformative global education inspired by the quantum worldview. Elaborates on the principle benefits of applying such a quantum model of education to environmental education, a field where the mechanistic paradigm still has some hold. (Author/CCM)

  7. Global existence of solutions for a model Boltzmann equation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cercignani, C.

    1987-12-01

    A model recently introduced by Ianiro and Lebowitz is shown to have a global solution for initial data having a finite H-functional and belonging to L {/υ 1}( L {/x ∞}). Methods previously introduced by Tartar to deal with discrete velocity models are used.

  8. Global existence of solutions for a model Boltzmann equation

    SciTech Connect

    Cercignani, C.

    1987-12-01

    A model recently introduced by Ianiro and Lebowitz is shown to have a global solution for initial data having a finite H-functional and belonging to L/sub v//sup 1/ (L/sub x//sup infinity/). Methods previously introduced by Tartar to deal with discrete velocity models are used.

  9. Global trends in extreme precipitation: climate models versus observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Asadieh, B.; Krakauer, N. Y.

    2015-02-01

    Precipitation events are expected to become substantially more intense under global warming, but few global comparisons of observations and climate model simulations are available to constrain predictions of future changes in precipitation extremes. We present a systematic global-scale comparison of changes in historical (1901-2010) annual-maximum daily precipitation between station observations (compiled in HadEX2) and the suite of global climate models contributing to the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). We use both parametric and non-parametric methods to quantify the strength of trends in extreme precipitation in observations and models, taking care to sample them spatially and temporally in comparable ways. We find that both observations and models show generally increasing trends in extreme precipitation since 1901, with the largest changes in the deep tropics. Annual-maximum daily precipitation (Rx1day) has increased faster in the observations than in most of the CMIP5 models. On a global scale, the observational annual-maximum daily precipitation has increased by an average of 5.73 mm over the last 110 years, or 8.5% in relative terms. This corresponds to an increase of 10% K-1 in global warming since 1901, which is larger than the average of climate models, with 8.3% K-1. The average rate of increase in extreme precipitation per K of warming in both models and observations is higher than the rate of increase in atmospheric water vapor content per K of warming expected from the Clausius-Clapeyron equation. We expect our findings to help inform assessments of precipitation-related hazards such as flooding, droughts and storms.

  10. Combined discriminative global and generative local models for visual tracking

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Liujun; Zhao, Qingjie; Chen, Yanming; Lv, Peng

    2016-03-01

    It is a challenging task to develop an effective visual tracking algorithm due to factors such as pose variation, rotation, and so on. Combined discriminative global and generative local appearance models are proposed to address this problem. Specifically, we develop a compact global object representation by extracting the low-frequency coefficients of the color and texture of the object based on two-dimensional discrete cosine transform. Then, with the global appearance representation, we learn a discriminative metric classifier in an online fashion to differentiate the target object from its background, which is very important to robustly indicate the changes in appearance. Second, we develop a new generative local model that exploits the scale invariant feature transform and its spatial geometric information. To make use of the advantages of the global discriminative model and the generative local model, we incorporate them into Bayesian inference framework. In this framework, the complementary models help the tracker locate the target more accurately. Furthermore, we use different mechanisms to update global and local templates to capture appearance changes. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed approach performs favorably against state-of-the-art methods in terms of accuracy.

  11. Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies

    PubMed Central

    Pierce, David W.; Barnett, Tim P.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Gleckler, Peter J.

    2009-01-01

    Regional or local climate change modeling studies currently require starting with a global climate model, then downscaling to the region of interest. How should global models be chosen for such studies, and what effect do such choices have? This question is addressed in the context of a regional climate detection and attribution (D&A) study of January-February-March (JFM) temperature over the western U.S. Models are often selected for a regional D&A analysis based on the quality of the simulated regional climate. Accordingly, 42 performance metrics based on seasonal temperature and precipitation, the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation are constructed and applied to 21 global models. However, no strong relationship is found between the score of the models on the metrics and results of the D&A analysis. Instead, the importance of having ensembles of runs with enough realizations to reduce the effects of natural internal climate variability is emphasized. Also, the superiority of the multimodel ensemble average (MM) to any 1 individual model, already found in global studies examining the mean climate, is true in this regional study that includes measures of variability as well. Evidence is shown that this superiority is largely caused by the cancellation of offsetting errors in the individual global models. Results with both the MM and models picked randomly confirm the original D&A results of anthropogenically forced JFM temperature changes in the western U.S. Future projections of temperature do not depend on model performance until the 2080s, after which the better performing models show warmer temperatures. PMID:19439652

  12. Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies.

    PubMed

    Pierce, David W; Barnett, Tim P; Santer, Benjamin D; Gleckler, Peter J

    2009-05-26

    Regional or local climate change modeling studies currently require starting with a global climate model, then downscaling to the region of interest. How should global models be chosen for such studies, and what effect do such choices have? This question is addressed in the context of a regional climate detection and attribution (D&A) study of January-February-March (JFM) temperature over the western U.S. Models are often selected for a regional D&A analysis based on the quality of the simulated regional climate. Accordingly, 42 performance metrics based on seasonal temperature and precipitation, the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation are constructed and applied to 21 global models. However, no strong relationship is found between the score of the models on the metrics and results of the D&A analysis. Instead, the importance of having ensembles of runs with enough realizations to reduce the effects of natural internal climate variability is emphasized. Also, the superiority of the multimodel ensemble average (MM) to any 1 individual model, already found in global studies examining the mean climate, is true in this regional study that includes measures of variability as well. Evidence is shown that this superiority is largely caused by the cancellation of offsetting errors in the individual global models. Results with both the MM and models picked randomly confirm the original D&A results of anthropogenically forced JFM temperature changes in the western U.S. Future projections of temperature do not depend on model performance until the 2080s, after which the better performing models show warmer temperatures.

  13. Global specialized stroke care delivery models.

    PubMed

    Theofanidis, Dimitrios; Savopoulos, Christos; Hatzitolios, Apostolos

    2016-03-01

    Stroke services still vary enormously from country to country, with many countries providing no special services at all. The aim of this article is to provide a concise overview of the various types of acute stroke delivery systems at present available and critically describe merits and shortcomings. A systematic literature review was undertaken from 1990 to July 2014. Several models for stroke services have been developed mostly in the past 3 decades, mainly in the Western world. These include state-of-the-art stroke services ranging from highly specialized stroke centers to mobile stroke units for the community. In this light, the recommendations of the structure and organization of stroke units and stroke centers by the European Stroke Organization were recently published. What differentiates the various models of stroke care delivery across the globe is the diversity of services ranging from low key conventional care to highly sophisticated facilities with life saving interventional features via integrated stroke care infrastructure. Effective in-hospital care for stroke should start in the emergency department where a swift and appropriate diagnosis should be made. The role of all brain neuroimaging procedures should have a defined a priori and proper demarcation between actions according to updated stroke care pathways and clinical protocols, which should be followed closely. These essential actions initiated by well-trained staff in the emergency department, should then be carried on in dedicated stroke facilities that is, a stroke unit.

  14. Toward GEOS-6, A Global Cloud System Resolving Atmospheric Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Putman, William M.

    2010-01-01

    NASA is committed to observing and understanding the weather and climate of our home planet through the use of multi-scale modeling systems and space-based observations. Global climate models have evolved to take advantage of the influx of multi- and many-core computing technologies and the availability of large clusters of multi-core microprocessors. GEOS-6 is a next-generation cloud system resolving atmospheric model that will place NASA at the forefront of scientific exploration of our atmosphere and climate. Model simulations with GEOS-6 will produce a realistic representation of our atmosphere on the scale of typical satellite observations, bringing a visual comprehension of model results to a new level among the climate enthusiasts. In preparation for GEOS-6, the agency's flagship Earth System Modeling Framework [JDl] has been enhanced to support cutting-edge high-resolution global climate and weather simulations. Improvements include a cubed-sphere grid that exposes parallelism; a non-hydrostatic finite volume dynamical core, and algorithm designed for co-processor technologies, among others. GEOS-6 represents a fundamental advancement in the capability of global Earth system models. The ability to directly compare global simulations at the resolution of spaceborne satellite images will lead to algorithm improvements and better utilization of space-based observations within the GOES data assimilation system

  15. Nonhydrostatic icosahedral atmospheric model (NICAM) for global cloud resolving simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Satoh, M.; Matsuno, T.; Tomita, H.; Miura, H.; Nasuno, T.; Iga, S.

    2008-03-01

    A new type of ultra-high resolution atmospheric global circulation model is developed. The new model is designed to perform "cloud resolving simulations" by directly calculating deep convection and meso-scale circulations, which play key roles not only in the tropical circulations but in the global circulations of the atmosphere. Since cores of deep convection have a few km in horizontal size, they have not directly been resolved by existing atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). In order to drastically enhance horizontal resolution, a new framework of a global atmospheric model is required; we adopted nonhydrostatic governing equations and icosahedral grids to the new model, and call it Nonhydrostatic ICosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM). In this article, we review governing equations and numerical techniques employed, and present the results from the unique 3.5-km mesh global experiments—with O(10 9) computational nodes—using realistic topography and land/ocean surface thermal forcing. The results show realistic behaviors of multi-scale convective systems in the tropics, which have not been captured by AGCMs. We also argue future perspective of the roles of the new model in the next generation atmospheric sciences.

  16. Global modeling of tropospheric iodine aerosol

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sherwen, Tomás. M.; Evans, Mat J.; Spracklen, Dominick V.; Carpenter, Lucy J.; Chance, Rosie; Baker, Alex R.; Schmidt, Johan A.; Breider, Thomas J.

    2016-09-01

    Natural aerosols play a central role in the Earth system. The conversion of dimethyl sulfide to sulfuric acid is the dominant source of oceanic secondary aerosol. Ocean emitted iodine can also produce aerosol. Using a GEOS-Chem model, we present a simulation of iodine aerosol. The simulation compares well with the limited observational data set. Iodine aerosol concentrations are highest in the tropical marine boundary layer (MBL) averaging 5.2 ng (I) m-3 with monthly maximum concentrations of 90 ng (I) m-3. These masses are small compared to sulfate (0.75% of MBL burden, up to 11% regionally) but are more significant compared to dimethyl sulfide sourced sulfate (3% of the MBL burden, up to 101% regionally). In the preindustrial, iodine aerosol makes up 0.88% of the MBL burden sulfate mass and regionally up to 21%. Iodine aerosol may be an important regional mechanism for ocean-atmosphere interaction.

  17. Global Magnetohydrodynamic Modeling of the Solar Corona

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Linker, Jon A.; Wagner, William (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The solar corona, the hot, tenuous outer atmosphere of the Sun, exhibits many fascinating phenomena on a wide range of scales. One of the ways that the Sun can affect us here at Earth is through the large-scale structure of the corona and the dynamical phenomena associated with it, as it is the corona that extends outward as the solar wind and encounters the Earth's magnetosphere. The goal of our research sponsored by NASA's Supporting Research and Technology Program in Solar Physics is to develop increasingly realistic models of the large-scale solar corona, so that we can understand the underlying properties of the coronal magnetic field that lead to the observed structure and evolution of the corona. We describe the work performed under this contract.

  18. A new global P wave model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, C.

    2004-12-01

    Using data from different seismic phases and improved tomography codes we have constructed a new model of 3-D variations in P-wavespeed in Earth's mantle. First, we have improved data coverage by adding to the large volume of routinely processed ISC catalog (P, pP, PKP ) data, as reprocessed by Engdahl et al. (BSSA98), several sets of differential travel times that have been measured by waveform cross correlation. These data include PKP-Pdiff (Wysession) and various PKP branches (Creager and McSweeney), which help improve resolution of structure in the lowermost mantle, and PP-P (Bolton and Masters), which greatly improves the mapping of structure in the upper mantle away from belts of high seismic activity. Second, we follow Karason et al. (JGR01) and use 3-D sensitivity kernels to account for the fact that the data are measured at different frequency, and in different ways. The kernels allow low frequency data (e.g., PP-P, Pdiff) to constrain long wavelengths without preventing short period data (P, PKP) to resolve small scale structure. We use approximate kernels since our research has shown that for this application the precise shape of the kernels is less important than effects of parameterization and regularization. Third, the localization of sensitivity is further aided by the use of a grid that is adapted to sampling density, so that small scale structure can be resolved in regions of dense data coverage. Fourth, for the ray geometry part we use 3-D ray tracing to account for the non-linear effects of heterogeneity on ray geometry. Finally, we correct for 3-D variations in crust structure, using CRUST2.0, which helps reduce the artificial smearing of shallow structure along steep ray paths. We present the new model, along with resolution tests, and discuss improvements over previous efforts.

  19. Comparing global models of terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP): Global pattern and differentiation by major biomes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kicklighter, D.W.; Bondeau, A.; Schloss, A.L.; Kaduk, J.; McGuire, A.D.

    1999-01-01

    Annual and seasonal net primary productivity estimates (NPP) of 15 global models across latitudinal zones and biomes are compared. The models simulated NPP for contemporary climate using common, spatially explicit data sets for climate, soil texture, and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Differences among NPP estimates varied over space and time. The largest differences occur during the summer months in boreal forests (50??to 60??N) and during the dry seasons of tropical evergreen forests. Differences in NPP estimates are related to model assumptions about vegetation structure, model parameterizations, and input data sets.

  20. Hippocampal neurogenesis in the new model of global cerebral ischemia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kisel, A. A.; Chernysheva, G. A.; Smol'yakova, V. I.; Savchenko, R. R.; Plotnikov, M. B.; Khodanovich, M. Yu.

    2015-11-01

    The study aimed to evaluate the changes of hippocampal neurogenesis in a new model of global transient cerebral ischemia which was performed by the occlusion of the three main vessels (tr. brachiocephalicus, a. subclavia sinistra, and a. carotis communis sinistra) branching from the aortic arch and supplying the brain. Global transitory cerebral ischemia was modeled on male rats (weight = 250-300 g) under chloral hydrate with artificial lung ventilation. Animals after the same surgical operation without vessel occlusion served as sham-operated controls. The number of DCX-positive (doublecortin, the marker of immature neurons) cells in dentate gyrus (DG) and CA1-CA3 fields of hippocampus was counted at the 31st day after ischemia modeling. It was revealed that global cerebral ischemia decreased neurogenesis in dentate gyrus in comparison with the sham-operated group (P<0.05) while neurogenesis in CA1-CA3 fields was increased as compared to the control (P<0.05).

  1. World water dynamics: global modeling of water resources.

    PubMed

    Simonovic, Slobodan P

    2002-11-01

    The growing scarcity of fresh and clean water is among the most important issues facing civilization in the 21st century. Despite the growing attention to a chronic, pernicious crisis in world's water resources our ability to correctly assess and predict global water availability, use and balance is still quite limited. An attempt is documented here in modeling global world water resources using system dynamics approach. Water resources sector (quantity and quality) is integrated with five sectors that drive industrial growth: population; agriculture; economy; nonrenewable resources; and persistent pollution. WorldWater model is developed on the basis of the last version of World3 model. Simulations of world water dynamics with WorldWater indicate that there is a strong relationship between the world water resources and future industrial growth of the world. It is also shown that the water pollution is the most important future water issue on the global level. PMID:12448404

  2. A high-resolution global flood hazard model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sampson, Christopher C.; Smith, Andrew M.; Bates, Paul B.; Neal, Jeffrey C.; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Freer, Jim E.

    2015-09-01

    Floods are a natural hazard that affect communities worldwide, but to date the vast majority of flood hazard research and mapping has been undertaken by wealthy developed nations. As populations and economies have grown across the developing world, so too has demand from governments, businesses, and NGOs for modeled flood hazard data in these data-scarce regions. We identify six key challenges faced when developing a flood hazard model that can be applied globally and present a framework methodology that leverages recent cross-disciplinary advances to tackle each challenge. The model produces return period flood hazard maps at ˜90 m resolution for the whole terrestrial land surface between 56°S and 60°N, and results are validated against high-resolution government flood hazard data sets from the UK and Canada. The global model is shown to capture between two thirds and three quarters of the area determined to be at risk in the benchmark data without generating excessive false positive predictions. When aggregated to ˜1 km, mean absolute error in flooded fraction falls to ˜5%. The full complexity global model contains an automatically parameterized subgrid channel network, and comparison to both a simplified 2-D only variant and an independently developed pan-European model shows the explicit inclusion of channels to be a critical contributor to improved model performance. While careful processing of existing global terrain data sets enables reasonable model performance in urban areas, adoption of forthcoming next-generation global terrain data sets will offer the best prospect for a step-change improvement in model performance.

  3. SMAP Global Model Calibration Using SMOS Time-Series Observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chan, S.; Njoku, E. G.; Bindlish, R.; O'Neill, P. E.; Jackson, T. J.

    2014-12-01

    Within the suite of SMAP's standard data products is the Level 2 Passive Soil Moisture Product, which is derived primarily from SMAP's brightness temperature (TB) observations. The baseline retrieval algorithm uses an established microwave emission model that had been extensively tested in many past field experiments. One approach to applying the same model at a global scale with SMAP's TB observations is to use the same calibration coefficients derived from past field experiments and apply them globally. Although this approach is a simplification of reality, it resulted in accurate retrieval in several geographically limited studies. Nevertheless, significant retrieval bias may occur in areas where land cover types had not been considered in past field experiments. In this work, a time-series global model calibration approach is proposed and evaluated. One year of gridded L-band TB observations from the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission were used as the primary input. At each land pixel on the SMAP grid, the observed TBs were compared with the simulated TBs according to the model with unknown calibration coefficients to be determined. Because of the time-series nature of the input, the above comparison could be repeated for successive revisit dates as a system of equations until the number of known variables (TBs) exceeds the number of unknown variables (calibration coefficients and/or geophysical retrieval). Global nonlinear optimization techniques were then applied to the equations to solve for the optimal model calibration coefficients for that pixel. Following global application of this approach, soil moisture estimates were extracted and compared with in-situ ground measurement. The resulting soil moisture estimates were shown to have an accuracy comparable to what was observed in past field experiments, confirming the versatility of this global model calibration approach.

  4. Representing plant hydraulics in a global Earth system model.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kennedy, D.; Gentine, P.

    2015-12-01

    Earth system models need improvement to reproduce observed seasonal and diurnal cycles of photosynthesis and respiration. Model water stress parameterizations lag behind the plant physiology literature. A plant hydraulics model is developed and deployed in a global Earth system model (NCAR CESM 1.2.2 with CLM 4.5). Assimilation and transpiration are attenuated according to literature cavitation curves. Water stress is evaluated based on plant functional type hydraulic parameters forced by soil moisture and atmospheric conditions. Resolving the plant water status allows for modelling divergent strategies for water stress. The case of isohydric versus anisohydric species is presented, showing that including plant hydraulic traits alter modelled photosynthesis and transpiration.

  5. A model of global convection in Jupiter's magnetosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheng, A. F.; Krimigis, S. M.

    1989-09-01

    Voyager observations of Jupiter's magnetosphere are compared with the planetary wind model in which corotation must break down outside some Alfven critical radius and a centrifugally driven wind outflow must develop. It is found that the model does not agree with the observations. A new global convection model for the Jovian magnetosphere is proposed, based on models of quasi-stationary plasma convection in the earth's magnetosphere. The model predicts a substantial dawn-dusk asymmetry in the structure, dynamics, and plasma composition of the magnetopause and magnetosheath. The model also predicts a region of cross-tail flow in the nightside plasma sheet containing a substantial admixture of solar wind plasma.

  6. Development of the IAP Dynamic Global Vegetation Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zeng, Xiaodong; Li, Fang; Song, Xiang

    2014-05-01

    The IAP Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (IAP-DGVM) has been developed to simulate the distribution and structure of global vegetation within the framework of Earth System Models. It incorporates our group's recent developments of major model components such as the shrub sub-model, establishment and competition parameterization schemes, and a process-based fire parameterization of intermediate complexity. The model has 12 plant functional types, including seven tree, two shrub, and three grass types, plus bare soil. Different PFTs are allowed to coexist within a grid cell, and their state variables are updated by various governing equations describing vegetation processes from fine-scale biogeophysics and biogeochemistry, to individual and population dynamics, to large-scale biogeography. Environmental disturbance due to fire not only affects regional vegetation competition, but also influences atmospheric chemistry and aerosol emissions. Simulations under observed atmospheric conditions showed that the model can correctly reproduce the global distribution of trees, shrubs, grasses, and bare soil. The simulated global dominant vegetation types reproduce the transition from forest to grassland (savanna) in the tropical region, and from forest to shrubland in the boreal region, but overestimate the region of temperate forest.

  7. Statistical modeling of global geogenic fluoride contamination in groundwaters.

    PubMed

    Amini, Manouchehr; Mueller, Kim; Abbaspour, Karim C; Rosenberg, Thomas; Afyuni, Majid; Møller, Klaus N; Sarr, Mamadou; Johnson, C Annette

    2008-05-15

    The use of groundwater with high fluoride concentrations poses a health threat to millions of people around the world. This study aims at providing a global overview of potentially fluoride-rich groundwaters by modeling fluoride concentration. A large database of worldwide fluoride concentrations as well as available information on related environmental factors such as soil properties, geological settings, and climatic and topographical information on a global scale have all been used in the model. The modeling approach combines geochemical knowledge with statistical methods to devise a rule-based statistical procedure, which divides the world into 8 different "process regions". For each region a separate predictive model was constructed. The end result is a global probability map of fluoride concentration in the groundwater. Comparisons of the modeled and measured data indicate that 60-70% of the fluoride variation could be explained by the models in six process regions, while in two process regions only 30% of the variation in the measured data was explained. Furthermore, the global probability map corresponded well with fluorotic areas described in the international literature. Although the probability map should not replace fluoride testing, it can give a first indication of possible contamination and thus may support the planning process of new drinking water projects.

  8. Global scale hydrology - Advances in land surface modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Wood, E.F. )

    1991-01-01

    Research into global scale hydrology is an expanding area that includes researchers from the meteorology, climatology, ecology and hydrology communities. This paper reviews research in this area carried out in the United States during the last IUGG quadrennial period of 1987-1990. The review covers the representation of land-surface hydrologic processes for general circulation models (GCMs), sensitivity analysis of these representations on global hydrologic fields like precipitation, regional studies of climate that have global hydrologic implications, recent field studies and experiments whose aims are the improved understanding of land surface-atmospheric interactions, and the use of remotely sensed data for the further understanding of the spatial variability of surface hydrologic processes that are important at regional and global climate scales. 76 refs.

  9. Mars Global Surveyor: Aerobraking and Observations Support Using a Mars Global Circulation Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Bridger, Alison F. C.; Harberle, Robert M.

    1997-01-01

    This is a Final Report for a Joint Research Interchange (JRI) between NASA Ames Research Center and San Jose State University, Department of Meteorology. Using a global atmospheric circulation model for Mars, the focus of this JRI has been to provide support for the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) spacecraft aerobraking activities and interpretation guidance of preliminary observations. ne primary atmospheric model applied in this investigation has been a high-top version of the NASA Ames Mars general circulation model (MGCM). Comparisons with an atmospheric model designed primarily for engineering purposes (Mars-GRAM) has also been carried out. From a suite of MGCM simulations, we have assessed plausible spatial and temporal variability in atmospheric density at high altitudes (e.g., 70-110 km) for seasonal dates and locations during Phase 1 aerobraking. Diagnostic tools have been developed to analyze circulation fields from the MGCM simulations, and these tools have been applied in the creation of a Mars climate catalogue database. Throughout Phase 1 aerobraking activities, analysis products have been provided to the MGS aerobraking atmospheric advisory group (AAG). Analyses of circulation variability at the coupling level between the MGCM and a Mars thermospheric global circulation model (MTGCM) has also been assessed. Finally, using a quasi-geostrophic dynamical formulation with the MGCM simulations, diagnosis of breaking planetary (Rossby) waves in Mars' middle atmosphere has been carried out. Titles of papers presented at scientific workshops and seminars, and a publication in the scientific literature are provided.

  10. Mars Global Surveyor: Aerobraking and Observations Support Using a Mars Global Circulation Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Bridger, Alison F. C.; Haberle, Robert M.

    1997-01-01

    This is a Final Report for a Joint Research Interchange (JRI) between NASA Ames Research Center and San Jose State University, Department of Meteorology. Using a global atmospheric circulation model for Mars, the focus of this JRI has been to provide support for the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) spacecraft aerobraking activities and interpretation guidance of preliminary observations. The primary atmospheric model applied in this investigation has been a high-top version of the NASA Ames Mars general circulation model (MGCM). Comparisons with an atmospheric model designed primarily for engineering purposes (Mars-GRAM) has also been carried out. From a suite of MGCM simulations, we have assessed plausible spatial and temporal variability in atmospheric density at high altitudes (e.g., 70-110 km) for seasonal dates and locations during Phase I aerobraking. Diagnostic tools have been developed to analyze circulation fields from the MGCM simulations, and these tools have been applied in the creation of a Mars climate catalogue database. Throughout Phase I aerobraking activities, analysis products have been provided to the MGS aerobraking atmospheric advisory group (AAG). Analyses of circulation variability at the coupling level between the MGCM and a Mars thermospheric global circulation model (MTGCM) has also been assessed. Finally, using a quasi-geostrophic dynamical formulation with the MGCM simulations, diagnosis of breaking planetary (Rossby) waves in Mars' middle atmosphere has been carried out. Titles of papers presented at scientific workshops and seminars, and a publication in the scientific literature are provided.

  11. Mars Global Surveyor: Aerobraking and Observations Support Using a Mars Global Circulation Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Bridger, Alison F. C.; Haberle, Robert M.

    1997-01-01

    This is a Final Report for a Joint Research Interchange (JRI) between NASA Ames Research Center and San Jose State University, Department of Meteorology. Using a global atmospheric circulation model for Mars, the focus of this JRI has been to provide support for the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) spacecraft aerobraking activities and interpretation guidance of preliminary observations. The primary atmospheric model applied in this investigation has been a high-top version of the NASA Ames Mars general circulation model (MGCM). Comparisons with an atmospheric model designed primarily for engineering purposes (Mars-GRAM) has also been carried out. From a suite of MGCM simulations, we have assessed plausible spatial and temporal variability in atmospheric density at high altitudes (e.g., 70-1 10 km) for seasonal dates and locations during Phase 1 aerobraking. Diagnostic tools have been developed to analyze circulation fields from the MGCM simulations, and these tools have been applied in the creation of a Mars climate catalogue database. Throughout Phase I aerobraking activities, analysis products have been provided to the MGS aerobraking atmospheric advisory group (AAG). Analyses of circulation variability at the coupling level between the MGCM and a Mars thermospheric global circulation model (MTGCM) has also been assessed. Finally, using a quasi-geostrophic dynamical formulation with the MGCM simulations, diagnosis of breaking planetary (Rossby) waves in Mars middle atmosphere has been carried out. Titles of papers presented at scientific workshops and seminars, and a publication in the scientific literature are provided.

  12. A physically based model of global freshwater surface temperature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beek, Ludovicus P. H.; Eikelboom, Tessa; Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Bierkens, Marc F. P.

    2012-09-01

    Temperature determines a range of physical properties of water and exerts a strong control on surface water biogeochemistry. Thus, in freshwater ecosystems the thermal regime directly affects the geographical distribution of aquatic species through their growth and metabolism and indirectly through their tolerance to parasites and diseases. Models used to predict surface water temperature range between physically based deterministic models and statistical approaches. Here we present the initial results of a physically based deterministic model of global freshwater surface temperature. The model adds a surface water energy balance to river discharge modeled by the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. In addition to advection of energy from direct precipitation, runoff, and lateral exchange along the drainage network, energy is exchanged between the water body and the atmosphere by shortwave and longwave radiation and sensible and latent heat fluxes. Also included are ice formation and its effect on heat storage and river hydraulics. We use the coupled surface water and energy balance model to simulate global freshwater surface temperature at daily time steps with a spatial resolution of 0.5° on a regular grid for the period 1976-2000. We opt to parameterize the model with globally available data and apply it without calibration in order to preserve its physical basis with the outlook of evaluating the effects of atmospheric warming on freshwater surface temperature. We validate our simulation results with daily temperature data from rivers and lakes (U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), limited to the USA) and compare mean monthly temperatures with those recorded in the Global Environment Monitoring System (GEMS) data set. Results show that the model is able to capture the mean monthly surface temperature for the majority of the GEMS stations, while the interannual variability as derived from the USGS and NOAA data was captured reasonably well. Results are poorest for

  13. A bottom-up evolution of terrestrial ecosystem modeling theory, and ideas toward global vegetation modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Running, Steven W.

    1992-01-01

    A primary purpose of this review is to convey lessons learned in the development of a forest ecosystem modeling approach, from it origins in 1973 as a single-tree water balance model to the current regional applications. The second intent is to use this accumulated experience to offer ideas of how terrestrial ecosystem modeling can be taken to the global scale: earth systems modeling. A logic is suggested where mechanistic ecosystem models are not themselves operated globally, but rather are used to 'calibrate' much simplified models, primarily driven by remote sensing, that could be implemented in a semiautomated way globally, and in principle could interface with atmospheric general circulation models (GCM's).

  14. ITG: A New Global GNSS Tropospheric Correction Model

    PubMed Central

    Yao, Yibin; Xu, Chaoqian; Shi, Junbo; Cao, Na; Zhang, Bao; Yang, Junjian

    2015-01-01

    Tropospheric correction models are receiving increasing attentions, as they play a crucial role in Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS). Most commonly used models to date include the GPT2 series and the TropGrid2. In this study, we analyzed the advantages and disadvantages of existing models and developed a new model called the Improved Tropospheric Grid (ITG). ITG considers annual, semi-annual and diurnal variations, and includes multiple tropospheric parameters. The amplitude and initial phase of diurnal variation are estimated as a periodic function. ITG provides temperature, pressure, the weighted mean temperature (Tm) and Zenith Wet Delay (ZWD). We conducted a performance comparison among the proposed ITG model and previous ones, in terms of meteorological measurements from 698 observation stations, Zenith Total Delay (ZTD) products from 280 International GNSS Service (IGS) station and Tm from Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS) products. Results indicate that ITG offers the best performance on the whole. PMID:26196963

  15. ITG: A New Global GNSS Tropospheric Correction Model.

    PubMed

    Yao, Yibin; Xu, Chaoqian; Shi, Junbo; Cao, Na; Zhang, Bao; Yang, Junjian

    2015-07-21

    Tropospheric correction models are receiving increasing attentions, as they play a crucial role in Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS). Most commonly used models to date include the GPT2 series and the TropGrid2. In this study, we analyzed the advantages and disadvantages of existing models and developed a new model called the Improved Tropospheric Grid (ITG). ITG considers annual, semi-annual and diurnal variations, and includes multiple tropospheric parameters. The amplitude and initial phase of diurnal variation are estimated as a periodic function. ITG provides temperature, pressure, the weighted mean temperature (Tm) and Zenith Wet Delay (ZWD). We conducted a performance comparison among the proposed ITG model and previous ones, in terms of meteorological measurements from 698 observation stations, Zenith Total Delay (ZTD) products from 280 International GNSS Service (IGS) station and Tm from Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS) products. Results indicate that ITG offers the best performance on the whole.

  16. Nonstationarity signatures in the dynamics of global nonlinear models.

    PubMed

    Aguirre, L A; Letellier, C

    2012-09-01

    The aim of this paper is to learn how to recognize a posteriori signatures that nonstationarity leaves on global models obtained from data. To this end the effects of nonstationarity on the dynamics of such models are reported for two benchmarks. Parameters of the Rössler and Lorenz models are varied to produce nonstationary data. It is shown that not only the rate of change of the varying parameter but also which recorded variable is used to estimate global models may have visible effects on the results, which are system-dependent and therefore difficult to generalize. Although the effects of nonstationarity are not necessarily obvious from the phase portraits, the first-return map to a Poincaré section is a much more adequate tool to recognize such effects. Three examples of models previously obtained from experimental data are analyzed in the light of the concepts discussed in this paper. PMID:23020475

  17. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models; Third year report

    SciTech Connect

    Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R.

    1994-05-01

    This report was prepared by the Applied Research Corporation (ARC), College Station, Texas, under subcontract to Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of a global climate studies task. The task supports site characterization work required for the selection of a potential high-level nuclear waste repository and is part of the Performance Assessment Scientific Support (PASS) Program at PNL. The work is under the overall direction of the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM), US Department of Energy Headquarters, Washington, DC. The scope of the report is to present the results of the third year`s work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain several studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals.

  18. Explicit convection studies in a global climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roberts, Malcolm J.; Peatman, Simon; Birch, Cathryn; Mizielinski, Matthew; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Demory, Marie-Estelle; Schiemann, Reinhard

    2014-05-01

    Most global climate models typically have a diurnal cycle of precipitation peaking near midday in the tropics, which is primarily attributed to the formulation of the parameterisation of convection. Recent advances in supercomputing have made it possible to follow the lead of regional modelling (such as the CASCADE project), and a few global modelling groups, to push global model resolutions far enough into the convective "grey zone" to consider removing or reducing the impact of such parameterisation. Although the explicit representation of convection at such coarse resolutions may be questionable, it does enable an investigation (in a global modelling context) of how a change in the diurnal cycle of precipitation might feed back on the large-scale mean state. Several multi-year simulations using a global atmospheric model at 12km resolution (based on the Met Office Unified Model with Global Atmosphere GA3.0 configuration) have been completed, using either parameterised convection or an explicit representation of either all or just deep convection in combination with a Smagorinsky-type turbulence scheme. The diurnal cycle of precipitation over tropical land is shown to be greatly improved when no parameterisation of deep convection is used: it is revealed both in the timing and magnitude of precipitation events, with much improved propagation of convective systems over Africa, albeit not over the Great Plains of the US. The impact that the changed diurnal cycle has on aspects of the mean state, such as surface fluxes, soil moisture and surface winds has also been investigated. There are interesting differences in the diurnal cycle of surface winds between the models, with changes to both sea breeze-type circulations as well as to very large-scale wind direction between morning and evening, which are also seen in satellite-derived observations from QuikScat. The former has important implications for the formation of intense thunderstorms and associated

  19. Integrating Kinetic Effects into Global Models for Reconnection

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Antiochos, S. K.

    2012-01-01

    Magnetic reconnection is the most striking example of how the coupling between global and kinetic scales can lead to fast energy release. Explosive solar activity, such as coronal mass ejections and flares for example, is widely believed to be due to the release of magnetic energy stored on global scales by magnetic reconnection operating on kinetic scales. Understanding how processes couple across spatial scales is one of the most difficult challenges in all of physics, and is undoubtedly the main obstacle to developing predictive models for the Sun's activity. Consequently, the NASA Living With a Star Program selected a Focused Science Team to attack the problem of cross-scale coupling in reconnection. In this talk I will present some of the results of the Team and review our latest theories and methods for modeling the global-local coupling in solar reconnection.

  20. Three dimensional global modeling of atmospheric CO2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fung, I.; Hansen, J.; Rind, D.

    1983-01-01

    A model was developed to study the prospects of extracting information on carbon dioxide sources and sinks from observed CO2 variations. The approach uses a three dimensional global transport model, based on winds from a 3-D general circulation model (GCM), to advect CO2 noninteractively, i.e., as a tracer, with specified sources and sinks of CO2 at the surface. The 3-D model employed is identified and biosphere, ocean and fossil fuel sources and sinks are discussed. Some preliminary model results are presented.

  1. Should precipitation influence dust emission in global dust models?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Okin, Gregory

    2016-04-01

    Soil moisture modulates the threshold shear stress required to initiate aeolian transport and dust emission. Most of the theoretical and laboratory work that has confirmed the impact of soil moisture has appropriately acknowledged that it is the soil moisture of a surface layer a few grain diameters thick that truly controls threshold shear velocity. Global and regional models of dust emission include the effect of soil moisture on transport threshold, but most ignore the fact that only the moisture of the very topmost "active layer" matters. The soil moisture in the active layer can differ greatly from that integrated through the top 2, 5, 10, or 100 cm (surface layers used by various global models) because the top 2 mm of heavy texture soils dries within ~1/2 day while sandy soils dry within less than 2 hours. Thus, in drylands where dust emission occurs, it is likely that this top layer is drier than the underlying soil in the days and weeks after rain. This paper explores, globally, the time between rain events in relation to the time for the active layer to dry and the timing of high wind events. This analysis is carried out using the same coarse reanalyses used in global dust models and is intended to inform the soil moisture controls in these models. The results of this analysis indicate that the timing between events is, in almost all dust-producing areas, significantly longer than the drying time of the active layer, even when considering soil texture differences. Further, the analysis shows that the probability of a high wind event during the period after a rain where the surface is wet is small. Therefore, in coarse global models, there is little reason to include rain-derived soil moisture in the modeling scheme.

  2. A simplified GIS approach to modeling global leaf water isoscapes.

    PubMed

    West, Jason B; Sobek, Adam; Ehleringer, James R

    2008-06-18

    The stable hydrogen (delta(2)H) and oxygen (delta(18)O) isotope ratios of organic and inorganic materials record biological and physical processes through the effects of substrate isotopic composition and fractionations that occur as reactions proceed. At large scales, these processes can exhibit spatial predictability because of the effects of coherent climatic patterns over the Earth's surface. Attempts to model spatial variation in the stable isotope ratios of water have been made for decades. Leaf water has a particular importance for some applications, including plant organic materials that record spatial and temporal climate variability and that may be a source of food for migrating animals. It is also an important source of the variability in the isotopic composition of atmospheric gases. Although efforts to model global-scale leaf water isotope ratio spatial variation have been made (especially of delta(18)O), significant uncertainty remains in models and their execution across spatial domains. We introduce here a Geographic Information System (GIS) approach to the generation of global, spatially-explicit isotope landscapes (= isoscapes) of "climate normal" leaf water isotope ratios. We evaluate the approach and the resulting products by comparison with simulation model outputs and point measurements, where obtainable, over the Earth's surface. The isoscapes were generated using biophysical models of isotope fractionation and spatially continuous precipitation isotope and climate layers as input model drivers. Leaf water delta(18)O isoscapes produced here generally agreed with latitudinal averages from GCM/biophysical model products, as well as mean values from point measurements. These results show global-scale spatial coherence in leaf water isotope ratios, similar to that observed for precipitation and validate the GIS approach to modeling leaf water isotopes. These results demonstrate that relatively simple models of leaf water enrichment combined with

  3. Hydrological model calibration for enhancing global flood forecast skill

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hirpa, Feyera A.; Beck, Hylke E.; Salamon, Peter; Thielen-del Pozo, Jutta

    2016-04-01

    Early warning systems play a key role in flood risk reduction, and their effectiveness is directly linked to streamflow forecast skill. The skill of a streamflow forecast is affected by several factors; among them are (i) model errors due to incomplete representation of physical processes and inaccurate parameterization, (ii) uncertainty in the model initial conditions, and (iii) errors in the meteorological forcing. In macro scale (continental or global) modeling, it is a common practice to use a priori parameter estimates over large river basins or wider regions, resulting in suboptimal streamflow estimations. The aim of this work is to improve flood forecast skill of the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS; www.globalfloods.eu), a grid-based forecasting system that produces flood forecast unto 30 days lead, through calibration of the distributed hydrological model parameters. We use a combination of in-situ and satellite-based streamflow data for automatic calibration using a multi-objective genetic algorithm. We will present the calibrated global parameter maps and report the forecast skill improvements achieved. Furthermore, we discuss current challenges and future opportunities with regard to global-scale early flood warning systems.

  4. On Vertically Global, Horizontally Local Models for Astrophysical Disks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McNally, Colin P.; Pessah, Martin E.

    2015-10-01

    Disks with a barotropic equilibrium structure, for which the pressure is only a function of the density, rotate on cylinders in the presence of a gravitational potential, so that the angular frequency of such a disk is independent of height. Such disks with barotropic equilibria can be approximately modeled using the shearing box framework, representing a small disk volume with height-independent angular frequency. If the disk is in baroclinic equilibrium, the angular frequency does generally depend on height, and it is thus necessary to go beyond the standard shearing box approach. In this paper, we show that given a global disk model, it is possible to develop approximate models that are local in horizontal planes without an expansion in height with shearing-periodic boundary conditions. We refer to the resulting framework as the vertically global shearing box (VGSB). These models can be non-axisymmetric for globally barotropic equilibria but should be axisymmetric for globally baroclinic equilibria. We provide explicit equations for this VGSB which can be implemented in standard magnetohydrodynamic codes by generalizing the shearing-periodic boundary conditions to allow for a height-dependent angular frequency and shear rate. We also discuss the limitations that result from the radial approximations that are needed in order to impose height-dependent shearing periodic boundary conditions. We illustrate the potential of this framework by studying a vertical shear instability and examining the modes associated with the magnetorotational instability.

  5. Applying modeling Results in designing a global tropospheric experiment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1982-01-01

    A set of field experiments and advanced modeling studies which provide a strategy for a program of global tropospheric experiments was identified. An expanded effort to develop space applications for trospheric air quality monitoring and studies was recommended. The tropospheric ozone, carbon, nitrogen, and sulfur cycles are addressed. Stratospheric-tropospheric exchange is discussed. Fast photochemical processes in the free troposphere are considered.

  6. ON VERTICALLY GLOBAL, HORIZONTALLY LOCAL MODELS FOR ASTROPHYSICAL DISKS

    SciTech Connect

    McNally, Colin P.; Pessah, Martin E. E-mail: mpessah@nbi.dk

    2015-10-01

    Disks with a barotropic equilibrium structure, for which the pressure is only a function of the density, rotate on cylinders in the presence of a gravitational potential, so that the angular frequency of such a disk is independent of height. Such disks with barotropic equilibria can be approximately modeled using the shearing box framework, representing a small disk volume with height-independent angular frequency. If the disk is in baroclinic equilibrium, the angular frequency does generally depend on height, and it is thus necessary to go beyond the standard shearing box approach. In this paper, we show that given a global disk model, it is possible to develop approximate models that are local in horizontal planes without an expansion in height with shearing-periodic boundary conditions. We refer to the resulting framework as the vertically global shearing box (VGSB). These models can be non-axisymmetric for globally barotropic equilibria but should be axisymmetric for globally baroclinic equilibria. We provide explicit equations for this VGSB which can be implemented in standard magnetohydrodynamic codes by generalizing the shearing-periodic boundary conditions to allow for a height-dependent angular frequency and shear rate. We also discuss the limitations that result from the radial approximations that are needed in order to impose height-dependent shearing periodic boundary conditions. We illustrate the potential of this framework by studying a vertical shear instability and examining the modes associated with the magnetorotational instability.

  7. New Models of Hybrid Leadership in Global Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tonini, Donna C.; Burbules, Nicholas C.; Gunsalus, C. K.

    2016-01-01

    This manuscript highlights the development of a leadership preparation program known as the Nanyang Technological University Leadership Academy (NTULA), exploring the leadership challenges unique to a university undergoing rapid growth in a highly multicultural context, and the hybrid model of leadership it developed in response to globalization.…

  8. A Global Model of Paradigm Development in Sociology of Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mahler, Fred

    1985-01-01

    Education is usually seen as an institution aimed at providing the skilled human resources needed for economic growth. Education should also help future citizens develop a better and more just world. A global model that stresses the cultural component of the interrelation between society and education is presented. (RM)

  9. The Research University in Transition: The Emerging Global Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mohrman, Kathryn; Ma, Wanhua; Baker, David

    2008-01-01

    In a knowledge intensive society, the research university is a key institution for social and economic development. Focused on the discovery of new knowledge and the development of the next generation of scholars, research universities are also becoming more international in focus. This article presents the Emerging Global Model (EGM) of the…

  10. Modeling Global Urbanization Supported by Nighttime Light Remote Sensing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Urbanization, a major driver of global change, profoundly impacts our physical and social world, for example, altering carbon cycling and climate. Understanding these consequences for better scientific insights and effective decision-making unarguably requires accurate information on urban extent and its spatial distributions. In this study, we developed a cluster-based method to estimate the optimal thresholds and map urban extents from the nighttime light remote sensing data, extended this method to the global domain by developing a computational method (parameterization) to estimate the key parameters in the cluster-based method, and built a consistent 20-year global urban map series to evaluate the time-reactive nature of global urbanization (e.g. 2000 in Fig. 1). Supported by urban maps derived from nightlights remote sensing data and socio-economic drivers, we developed an integrated modeling framework to project future urban expansion by integrating a top-down macro-scale statistical model with a bottom-up urban growth model. With the models calibrated and validated using historical data, we explored urban growth at the grid level (1-km) over the next two decades under a number of socio-economic scenarios. The derived spatiotemporal information of historical and potential future urbanization will be of great value with practical implications for developing adaptation and risk management measures for urban infrastructure, transportation, energy, and water systems when considered together with other factors such as climate variability and change, and high impact weather events.

  11. Future hydrological extremes: the uncertainty from multiple global climate and global hydrological models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giuntoli, I.; Vidal, J.-P.; Prudhomme, C.; Hannah, D. M.

    2015-05-01

    Projections of changes in the hydrological cycle from global hydrological models (GHMs) driven by global climate models (GCMs) are critical for understanding future occurrence of hydrological extremes. However, uncertainties remain large and need to be better assessed. In particular, recent studies have pointed to a considerable contribution of GHMs that can equal or outweigh the contribution of GCMs to uncertainty in hydrological projections. Using six GHMs and five GCMs from the ISI-MIP multi-model ensemble, this study aims: (i) to assess future changes in the frequency of both high and low flows at the global scale using control and future (RCP8.5) simulations by the 2080s, and (ii) to quantify, for both ends of the runoff spectrum, GCMs and GHMs contributions to uncertainty using a two-way ANOVA. Increases are found in high flows for northern latitudes and in low flows for several hotspots. Globally, the largest source of uncertainty is associated with GCMs, but GHMs are the greatest source in snow-dominated regions. More specifically, results vary depending on the runoff metric, the temporal (annual and seasonal) and regional scale of analysis. For instance, uncertainty contribution from GHMs is higher for low flows than it is for high flows, partly owing to the different processes driving the onset of the two phenomena (e.g. the more direct effect of the GCMs' precipitation variability on high flows). This study provides a comprehensive synthesis of where future hydrological extremes are projected to increase and where the ensemble spread is owed to either GCMs or GHMs. Finally, our results underline the need for improvements in modelling snowmelt and runoff processes to project future hydrological extremes and the importance of using multiple GCMs and GHMs to encompass the uncertainty range provided by these two sources.

  12. A computer model of global thermospheric winds and temperatures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Killeen, T. L.; Roble, R. G.; Spencer, N. W.

    1987-01-01

    Output data from the NCAR Thermospheric GCM and a vector-spherical-harmonic (VSH) representation of the wind field are used in constructing a computer model of time-dependent global horizontal vector neutral wind and temperature fields at altitude 130-300 km. The formulation of the VSH model is explained in detail, and some typical results obtained with a preliminary version (applicable to December solstice at solar maximum) are presented graphically. Good agreement with DE-2 satellite measurements is demonstrated.

  13. A high-resolution global-scale groundwater model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Graaf, I. E. M.; Sutanudjaja, E. H.; van Beek, L. P. H.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

    2015-02-01

    Groundwater is the world's largest accessible source of fresh water. It plays a vital role in satisfying basic needs for drinking water, agriculture and industrial activities. During times of drought groundwater sustains baseflow to rivers and wetlands, thereby supporting ecosystems. Most global-scale hydrological models (GHMs) do not include a groundwater flow component, mainly due to lack of geohydrological data at the global scale. For the simulation of lateral flow and groundwater head dynamics, a realistic physical representation of the groundwater system is needed, especially for GHMs that run at finer resolutions. In this study we present a global-scale groundwater model (run at 6' resolution) using MODFLOW to construct an equilibrium water table at its natural state as the result of long-term climatic forcing. The used aquifer schematization and properties are based on available global data sets of lithology and transmissivities combined with the estimated thickness of an upper, unconfined aquifer. This model is forced with outputs from the land-surface PCRaster Global Water Balance (PCR-GLOBWB) model, specifically net recharge and surface water levels. A sensitivity analysis, in which the model was run with various parameter settings, showed that variation in saturated conductivity has the largest impact on the groundwater levels simulated. Validation with observed groundwater heads showed that groundwater heads are reasonably well simulated for many regions of the world, especially for sediment basins (R2 = 0.95). The simulated regional-scale groundwater patterns and flow paths demonstrate the relevance of lateral groundwater flow in GHMs. Inter-basin groundwater flows can be a significant part of a basin's water budget and help to sustain river baseflows, especially during droughts. Also, water availability of larger aquifer systems can be positively affected by additional recharge from inter-basin groundwater flows.

  14. GLEAM version 3: Global Land Evaporation Datasets and Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martens, B.; Miralles, D. G.; Lievens, H.; van der Schalie, R.; de Jeu, R.; Fernandez-Prieto, D.; Verhoest, N.

    2015-12-01

    Terrestrial evaporation links energy, water and carbon cycles over land and is therefore a key variable of the climate system. However, the global-scale magnitude and variability of the flux, and the sensitivity of the underlying physical process to changes in environmental factors, are still poorly understood due to limitations in in situ measurements. As a result, several methods have risen to estimate global patterns of land evaporation from satellite observations. However, these algorithms generally differ in their approach to model evaporation, resulting in large differences in their estimates. One of these methods is GLEAM, the Global Land Evaporation: the Amsterdam Methodology. GLEAM estimates terrestrial evaporation based on daily satellite observations of meteorological variables, vegetation characteristics and soil moisture. Since the publication of the first version of the algorithm (2011), the model has been widely applied to analyse trends in the water cycle and land-atmospheric feedbacks during extreme hydrometeorological events. A third version of the GLEAM global datasets is foreseen by the end of 2015. Given the relevance of having a continuous and reliable record of global-scale evaporation estimates for climate and hydrological research, the establishment of an online data portal to host these data to the public is also foreseen. In this new release of the GLEAM datasets, different components of the model have been updated, with the most significant change being the revision of the data assimilation algorithm. In this presentation, we will highlight the most important changes of the methodology and present three new GLEAM datasets and their validation against in situ observations and an alternative dataset of terrestrial evaporation (ERA-Land). Results of the validation exercise indicate that the magnitude and the spatiotemporal variability of the modelled evaporation agree reasonably well with the estimates of ERA-Land and the in situ

  15. Using a Global Model to Predict the High Latitudes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McKinnell, Lee-Anne; Oyeyemi, Elijah; Estela Mosert, Marta

    A new neural network (NN) based global empirical model for the foF2 parameter, which rep-resents the peak electron density has been developed using extended temporal and spatial geo-physical relevant inputs. Previous papers have shown that this new model would be a suitable replacement for the URSI and CCIR maps currently used within the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model for the purpose of F2 peak electron density predictions. Measured ground based ionosonde data, from 135 global stations, spanning the period 1995 to 2005 and, for a few stations from 1976 to 1986, obtained from various resources of the World Data Cen-tre (WDC) archives (Space Physics Interactive Data Resource SPIDR, the Digital Ionogram Database, DIDBase, and IPS Radio and Space Services as well as from individual requests) have been used for training a NN to predict the peak electron density. This paper will demon-strate the capability of this global foF2 model to predict foF2 at high latitude locations using previously unseen foF2 data from the Argentinian Antarctic stations. The model has been tested at solar minimum at the Antarctic locations since this was dictated by the availability of data from these stations. Additional high latitude data is used to demonstrate the ability of the model to perform at other solar activity levels. A comparative analysis is presented with details on areas of concern and possibilities for future improvement.

  16. Sequestering by global symmetries in Calabi-Yau string models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andrey, Christopher; Scrucca, Claudio A.

    2011-10-01

    We study the possibility of realizing an effective sequestering between visible and hidden sectors in generic heterotic string models, generalizing previous work on orbifold constructions to smooth Calabi-Yau compactifications. In these theories, genuine sequestering is spoiled by interactions mixing chiral multiplets of the two sectors in the effective Kähler potential. These effective interactions however have a specific current-current-like structure and can be interpreted from an M-theory viewpoint as coming from the exchange of heavy vector multiplets. One may then attempt to inhibit the emergence of generic soft scalar masses in the visible sector by postulating a suitable global symmetry in the dynamics of the hidden sector. This mechanism is however not straightforward to implement, because the structure of the effective contact terms and the possible global symmetries is a priori model-dependent. To assess whether there is any robust and generic option, we study the full dependence of the Kähler potential on the moduli and the matter fields. This is well known for orbifold models, where it always leads to a symmetric scalar manifold, but much less understood for Calabi-Yau models, where it generically leads to a non-symmetric scalar manifold. We then examine the possibility of an effective sequestering by global symmetries, and argue that whereas for orbifold models this can be put at work rather naturally, for Calabi-Yau models it can only be implemented in rather peculiar circumstances.

  17. A web-services approach to modeling global fluid flux

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wood, W. T.; Martin, K. M.; Sample, J.; Owens, R.; Jung, W.; Calantoni, J.; Boyd, T. J.; Coffin, R. B.

    2013-12-01

    Regional and global estimates of fluid and solute accumulation and transport require aspects of physics, chemistry, and biology that manifest as geospatial data sets. Recent developments in computer sciences known as web-services allow a new approach to earth modeling that allows data and models from different sources and on different platforms to be linked - allowing continual updates as data are acquired or models upgraded. NRL has begun constructing a such a generic earth modeling system (GEMS) based on OGC and WD3 compliant web-services data exchange, and designed to take advantage of newly developing web-service based data repositories funded by NSF, NOAA, USGS and others. Specifically, global data sets such as those found in the World Ocean Atlas (2009), sediment thickness, crust age, and seafloor temperature that have been used previously to estimate methane hydrate content in the World's ocean can now be combined with models of sedimentary accretion to generate estimates of fluid flux along margins. The data are served up as independent web coverage services, so they can be independently updated as new data arrives. We anticipate the web services approach to will allow a more flexible, dynamic, and resilient global model of fluid and solute flux than was previously possible.

  18. A New Global Core Plasma Model of the Plasmasphere

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gallagher, D. L.; Comfort, R. H.; Craven, P. D.

    2014-01-01

    The Global Core Plasma Model (GCPM) is the first empirical model for thermal inner magnetospheric plasma designed to integrate previous models and observations into a continuous in value and gradient representation of typical total densities. New information about the plasmasphere, in particular, makes possible significant improvement. The IMAGE Mission Radio Plasma Imager (RPI) has obtained the first observations of total plasma densities along magnetic field lines in the plasmasphere and polar cap. Dynamics Explorer 1 Retarding Ion Mass Spectrometer (RIMS) has provided densities in temperatures in the plasmasphere for 5 ion species. These and other works enable a new more detailed empirical model of thermal in the inner magnetosphere that will be presented.

  19. Global Earth Response to Loading by Ocean Tide Models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Estes, R. H.; Strayer, J. M.

    1979-01-01

    Mathematical and programming techniques to numerically calculate Earth response to global semidiurnal and diurnal ocean tide models were developed. Global vertical crustal deformations were evaluated for M sub 2, S sub 2, N sub 2, K sub 2, K sub 1, O sub 1, and P sub 1 ocean tide loading, while horizontal deformations were evaluated for the M sub 2 tidal load. Tidal gravity calculations were performed for M sub 2 tidal loads, and strain tensor elements were evaluated for M sub 2 loads. The M sub 2 solution used for the ocean tide included the effects of self-gravitation and crustal loading.

  20. Global Biogeochemistry Models and Global Carbon Cycle Research at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

    SciTech Connect

    Covey, C; Caldeira, K; Guilderson, T; Cameron-Smith, P; Govindasamy, B; Swanston, C; Wickett, M; Mirin, A; Bader, D

    2005-05-27

    The climate modeling community has long envisioned an evolution from physical climate models to ''earth system'' models that include the effects of biology and chemistry, particularly those processes related to the global carbon cycle. The widely reproduced Box 3, Figure 1 from the 2001 IPCC Scientific Assessment schematically describes that evolution. The community generally accepts the premise that understanding and predicting global and regional climate change requires the inclusion of carbon cycle processes in models to fully simulate the feedbacks between the climate system and the carbon cycle. Moreover, models will ultimately be employed to predict atmospheric concentrations of CO{sub 2} and other greenhouse gases as a function of anthropogenic and natural processes, such as industrial emissions, terrestrial carbon fixation, sequestration, land use patterns, etc. Nevertheless, the development of coupled climate-carbon models with demonstrable quantitative skill will require a significant amount of effort and time to understand and validate their behavior at both the process level and as integrated systems. It is important to consider objectively whether the currently proposed strategies to develop and validate earth system models are optimal, or even sufficient, and whether alternative strategies should be pursued. Carbon-climate models are going to be complex, with the carbon cycle strongly interacting with many other components. Off-line process validation will be insufficient. As was found in coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs, feedbacks between model components can amplify small errors and uncertainties in one process to produce large biases in the simulated climate. The persistent tropical western Pacific Ocean ''double ITCZ'' and upper troposphere ''cold pole'' problems are examples. Finding and fixing similar types of problems in coupled carbon-climate models especially will be difficult, given the lack of observations required for diagnosis and validation

  1. [Global Atmospheric Chemistry/Transport Modeling and Data-Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prinn, Ronald G.

    1999-01-01

    This grant supported a global atmospheric chemistry/transport modeling and data- analysis project devoted to: (a) development, testing, and refining of inverse methods for determining regional and global transient source and sink strengths for trace gases; (b) utilization of these inverse methods which use either the Model for Atmospheric Chemistry and Transport (MATCH) which is based on analyzed observed winds or back- trajectories calculated from these same winds for determining regional and global source and sink strengths for long-lived trace gases important in ozone depletion and the greenhouse effect; (c) determination of global (and perhaps regional) average hydroxyl radical concentrations using inverse methods with multiple "titrating" gases; and (d) computation of the lifetimes and spatially resolved destruction rates of trace gases using 3D models. Important ultimate goals included determination of regional source strengths of important biogenic/anthropogenic trace gases and also of halocarbons restricted by the Montreal Protocol and its follow-on agreements, and hydrohalocarbons now used as alternatives to the above restricted halocarbons.

  2. Evaluation of Global Hydrological Model considering Reservoir Operation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Masaki, Y.; Hanasaki, N.; Takahashi, K.; Hijioka, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Construction of reservoirs, especially in the last half of the 20th century, has greatly contributed to the prevention of riverine disasters and the security of water supplies in the world. Since reservoirs markedly alter the river flow in downstream, precise modeling of reservoir operation is necessary for the improvement of river flow simulations. Yet global hydrological simulations considering reservoir operation are still immature - although actual reservoirs are practically operated by considering both meteorological conditions and regional requests within each river basin, modeled reservoirs are operated according to simplified operation schemes optimized for global applicability with less regional variety. Thus, checking the performance of global hydrological models based on the comparison of model outputs with historical observation records is important for better understanding of uncertainties in the hydrological simulation. In this study, we conducted long-term historical hydrological simulations considering 6862 reservoirs worldwide. Simulation settings were based on the protocol of the model intercomparison project, termed ISI-MIP2.1A. We compared time-series of observed and simulated reservoir storage to examine the performance of reservoir operation schemes adopted in the H08 global hydrological model for 29 reservoirs, most of which are located in the United States and Canada, selected by considering data availability on the reservoir operation. We ran the hydrological model under four different meteorological forcing data sets distributed for ISI-MIP2.1A simulations for a historical period. By examining whether the observed water storage lies within the spread of simulated water storage with the four sets of meteorological forcing, we identified a prevailing source of errors in the simulation of the river discharge - reservoir operation schemes or meteorological forcing data.

  3. Reconstruction of groundwater depletion using a global scale groundwater model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Graaf, Inge; van Beek, Rens; Sutanudjaja, Edwin; Wada, Yoshi; Bierkens, Marc

    2015-04-01

    Groundwater forms an integral part of the global hydrological cycle and is the world's largest accessible source of fresh water to satisfy human water needs. It buffers variable recharge rates over time, thereby effectively sustaining river flows in times of drought as well as evaporation in areas with shallow water tables. Moreover, although lateral groundwater flows are often slow, they cross topographic and administrative boundaries at appreciable rates. Despite the importance of groundwater, most global scale hydrological models do not consider surface water-groundwater interactions or include a lateral groundwater flow component. The main reason of this omission is the lack of consistent global-scale hydrogeological information needed to arrive at a more realistic representation of the groundwater system, i.e. including information on aquifer depths and the presence of confining layers. The latter holds vital information on the accessibility and quality of the global groundwater resource. In this study we developed a high resolution (5 arc-minutes) global scale transient groundwater model comprising confined and unconfined aquifers. This model is based on MODFLOW (McDonald and Harbaugh, 1988) and coupled with the land-surface model PCR GLOBWB (van Beek et al., 2011) via recharge and surface water levels. Aquifers properties were based on newly derived estimates of aquifer depths (de Graaf et al., 2014b) and thickness of confining layers from an integration of lithological and topographical information. They were further parameterized using available global datasets on lithology (Hartmann and Moosdorf, 2011) and permeability (Gleeson et al., 2014). In a sensitivity analysis the model was run with various hydrogeological parameter settings, under natural recharge only. Scenarios of past groundwater abstractions and corresponding recharge (Wada et al., 2012, de Graaf et al. 2014a) were evaluated. The resulting estimates of groundwater depletion are lower than

  4. Global Carbon Cycle Modeling in GISS ModelE2 GCM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aleinov, I. D.; Kiang, N. Y.; Romanou, A.; Romanski, J.

    2014-12-01

    Consistent and accurate modeling of the Global Carbon Cycle remains one of the main challenges for the Earth System Models. NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ModelE2 General Circulation Model (GCM) was recently equipped with a complete Global Carbon Cycle algorithm, consisting of three integrated components: Ent Terrestrial Biosphere Model (Ent TBM), Ocean Biogeochemistry Module and atmospheric CO2 tracer. Ent TBM provides CO2 fluxes from the land surface to the atmosphere. Its biophysics utilizes the well-known photosynthesis functions of Farqhuar, von Caemmerer, and Berry and Farqhuar and von Caemmerer, and stomatal conductance of Ball and Berry. Its phenology is based on temperature, drought, and radiation fluxes, and growth is controlled via allocation of carbon from labile carbohydrate reserve storage to different plant components. Soil biogeochemistry is based on the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford (CASA) model of Potter et al. Ocean biogeochemistry module (the NASA Ocean Biogeochemistry Model, NOBM), computes prognostic distributions for biotic and abiotic fields that influence the air-sea flux of CO2 and the deep ocean carbon transport and storage. Atmospheric CO2 is advected with a quadratic upstream algorithm implemented in atmospheric part of ModelE2. Here we present the results for pre-industrial equilibrium and modern transient simulations and provide comparison to available observations. We also discuss the process of validation and tuning of particular algorithms used in the model.

  5. Global atmospheric and ocean modeling on the connection machine

    SciTech Connect

    Atlas, S.R.

    1993-12-01

    This paper describes the high-level architecture of two parallel global climate models: an atmospheric model based on the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) SKYHI model, and an ocean model descended from the Bryan-Cox-Semtner ocean general circulation model. These parallel models are being developed as part of a long-term research collaboration between Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) and the GFDL. The goal of this collaboration is to develop parallel global climate models which are modular in structure, portable across a wide variety of machine architectures and programming paradigms, and provide an appropriate starting point for a fully coupled model. Several design considerations have emerged as central to achieving these goals. These include the expression of the models in terms of mathematical primitives such as stencil operators, to facilitate performance optimization on different computational platforms; the isolation of communication from computation to allow flexible implementation of a single code under message-passing or data parallel programming paradigms; and judicious memory management to achieve modularity without memory explosion costs.

  6. Prediction of Plate Motions and Stresses from Global Dynamic Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ghosh, A.; Holt, W. E.

    2011-12-01

    Predicting plate motions correctly has been a challenge for global dynamic models. In addition to predicting plate motions, a successful model must also explain the following features: plate rigidity, plate boundary zone deformation, as well as intraplate stress patterns and deformation. In this study we show that, given constraints from shallow lithosphere structure, history of subduction, and first order features from whole mantle tomography, it is possible to achieve a high level of accuracy in predicting plate motions and lithosphere deformation within plate boundary zones. Best-fit dynamic models presently provide an RMS velocity misfit of global surface motions (compared at 63,000 spaced points in the GSRM NNR model [Kreemer et al., 2006]) of order 1 cm/yr. We explore the relative contribution of shallow lithosphere structure vs. whole mantle convection in affecting surface deformation as well as plate motions. We show that shallow lithosphere structure that includes topography and lateral density variations in the lithosphere is an integral part of global force balance. Its inclusion in geodynamic models is essential in order to match observations of surface motions and stresses, particularly within continental zones of deformation. We also argue that stiff slabs may not be as important as has been previously claimed in controlling plate motion and lithosphere deformation. An important result of this study is the calibration of absolute stress magnitudes in the lithosphere, verified through benchmarking using whole mantle convection models. Given additional constraints of the matching of surface motions, we also calibrate the absolute effective lithosphere viscosities. Best-fit models require plates with effective viscosities of order 1023 Pa-s, with plate boundary zones possessing effective viscosities 1-3 orders of magnitude weaker. Given deviatoric stress magnitudes within the lithosphere of order 10 - 60 MPa, our global models predict less than 2 mm

  7. A global land primary productivity and phytogeography model

    SciTech Connect

    Woodward, F.I.; Smith, T.M.; Emanuel, W.R.

    1995-12-01

    A global primary productivity and phytogeography model is described. The model represents the biochemical processes of photosynthesis and the dependence of gas exchange on stomatal conductance, which in turn depends on temperature and soil moisture. Canopy conductance controls soil water loss by evapotranspiration. The assignment of nitrogen uptake to leaf layers is proportional to irradiance, and respiration and maximum assimilation rates depend on nitrogen uptake and temperature. Total nitrogen uptake is derived from soil carbon and nitrogen and depends on temperature. The long-term average annual carbon and hydrological budgets dictate canopy leaf area. Although observations constrain soil carbon and nitrogen, the distribution of vegetation types is not specified by an underlying map. Variables simulated by the model are compared to experimental results. These comparisons extend from biochemical processes to the whole canopy, and the comparisons are favorable for both current and elevated CO{sub 2} atmospheres. The model is used to simulate the global distributions of leaf area index and annual net primary productivity. These distributions are sufficiently realistic to demonstrate that the model is useful for analyzing vegetation responses to global environmental change. 116 refs., 11 figs.

  8. An Effective Model for Improving Global Health Nursing Competence.

    PubMed

    Kang, Sun-Joo

    2016-01-01

    This paper proposed an effective model for improving global health nursing competence among undergraduate students. A descriptive case study was conducted by evaluation of four implemented programs by the author. All programs were conducted with students majoring in nursing and healthcare, where the researcher was a program director, professor, or facilitator. These programs were analyzed in terms of students' needs assessment, program design, and implementation and evaluation factors. The concept and composition of global nursing competence, identified within previous studies, were deemed appropriate in all of our programs. Program composition varied from curricular to extracurricular domains. During the implementation phase, some of the programs included non-Korean students to improve cultural diversity and overcome language barriers. Qualitative and quantitative surveys were conducted to assess program efficacy. Data triangulation from students' reflective journals was examined. Additionally, students' awareness regarding changes within global health nursing, improved critical thinking, cultural understanding, and global leadership skills were investigated pre- and post-program implementation. The importance of identifying students' needs regarding global nursing competence when developing appropriate curricula is discussed. PMID:27679793

  9. An Effective Model for Improving Global Health Nursing Competence

    PubMed Central

    Kang, Sun-Joo

    2016-01-01

    This paper proposed an effective model for improving global health nursing competence among undergraduate students. A descriptive case study was conducted by evaluation of four implemented programs by the author. All programs were conducted with students majoring in nursing and healthcare, where the researcher was a program director, professor, or facilitator. These programs were analyzed in terms of students’ needs assessment, program design, and implementation and evaluation factors. The concept and composition of global nursing competence, identified within previous studies, were deemed appropriate in all of our programs. Program composition varied from curricular to extracurricular domains. During the implementation phase, some of the programs included non-Korean students to improve cultural diversity and overcome language barriers. Qualitative and quantitative surveys were conducted to assess program efficacy. Data triangulation from students’ reflective journals was examined. Additionally, students’ awareness regarding changes within global health nursing, improved critical thinking, cultural understanding, and global leadership skills were investigated pre- and post-program implementation. The importance of identifying students’ needs regarding global nursing competence when developing appropriate curricula is discussed. PMID:27679793

  10. An Effective Model for Improving Global Health Nursing Competence

    PubMed Central

    Kang, Sun-Joo

    2016-01-01

    This paper proposed an effective model for improving global health nursing competence among undergraduate students. A descriptive case study was conducted by evaluation of four implemented programs by the author. All programs were conducted with students majoring in nursing and healthcare, where the researcher was a program director, professor, or facilitator. These programs were analyzed in terms of students’ needs assessment, program design, and implementation and evaluation factors. The concept and composition of global nursing competence, identified within previous studies, were deemed appropriate in all of our programs. Program composition varied from curricular to extracurricular domains. During the implementation phase, some of the programs included non-Korean students to improve cultural diversity and overcome language barriers. Qualitative and quantitative surveys were conducted to assess program efficacy. Data triangulation from students’ reflective journals was examined. Additionally, students’ awareness regarding changes within global health nursing, improved critical thinking, cultural understanding, and global leadership skills were investigated pre- and post-program implementation. The importance of identifying students’ needs regarding global nursing competence when developing appropriate curricula is discussed.

  11. An Effective Model for Improving Global Health Nursing Competence.

    PubMed

    Kang, Sun-Joo

    2016-01-01

    This paper proposed an effective model for improving global health nursing competence among undergraduate students. A descriptive case study was conducted by evaluation of four implemented programs by the author. All programs were conducted with students majoring in nursing and healthcare, where the researcher was a program director, professor, or facilitator. These programs were analyzed in terms of students' needs assessment, program design, and implementation and evaluation factors. The concept and composition of global nursing competence, identified within previous studies, were deemed appropriate in all of our programs. Program composition varied from curricular to extracurricular domains. During the implementation phase, some of the programs included non-Korean students to improve cultural diversity and overcome language barriers. Qualitative and quantitative surveys were conducted to assess program efficacy. Data triangulation from students' reflective journals was examined. Additionally, students' awareness regarding changes within global health nursing, improved critical thinking, cultural understanding, and global leadership skills were investigated pre- and post-program implementation. The importance of identifying students' needs regarding global nursing competence when developing appropriate curricula is discussed.

  12. A seawater desalination scheme for global hydrological models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hanasaki, Naota; Yoshikawa, Sayaka; Kakinuma, Kaoru; Kanae, Shinjiro

    2016-10-01

    Seawater desalination is a practical technology for providing fresh water to coastal arid regions. Indeed, the use of desalination is rapidly increasing due to growing water demand in these areas and decreases in production costs due to technological advances. In this study, we developed a model to estimate the areas where seawater desalination is likely to be used as a major water source and the likely volume of production. The model was designed to be incorporated into global hydrological models (GHMs) that explicitly include human water usage. The model requires spatially detailed information on climate, income levels, and industrial and municipal water use, which represent standard input/output data in GHMs. The model was applied to a specific historical year (2005) and showed fairly good reproduction of the present geographical distribution and national production of desalinated water in the world. The model was applied globally to two periods in the future (2011-2040 and 2041-2070) under three distinct socioeconomic conditions, i.e., SSP (shared socioeconomic pathway) 1, SSP2, and SSP3. The results indicate that the usage of seawater desalination will have expanded considerably in geographical extent, and that production will have increased by 1.4-2.1-fold in 2011-2040 compared to the present (from 2.8 × 109 m3 yr-1 in 2005 to 4.0-6.0 × 109 m3 yr-1), and 6.7-17.3-fold in 2041-2070 (from 18.7 to 48.6 × 109 m3 yr-1). The estimated global costs for production for each period are USD 1.1-10.6 × 109 (0.002-0.019 % of the total global GDP), USD 1.6-22.8 × 109 (0.001-0.020 %), and USD 7.5-183.9 × 109 (0.002-0.100 %), respectively. The large spreads in these projections are primarily attributable to variations within the socioeconomic scenarios.

  13. Assessing global vegetation activity using spatio-temporal Bayesian modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mulder, Vera L.; van Eck, Christel M.; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Regnier, Pierre A. G.

    2016-04-01

    This work demonstrates the potential of modelling vegetation activity using a hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal model. This approach allows modelling changes in vegetation and climate simultaneous in space and time. Changes of vegetation activity such as phenology are modelled as a dynamic process depending on climate variability in both space and time. Additionally, differences in observed vegetation status can be contributed to other abiotic ecosystem properties, e.g. soil and terrain properties. Although these properties do not change in time, they do change in space and may provide valuable information in addition to the climate dynamics. The spatio-temporal Bayesian models were calibrated at a regional scale because the local trends in space and time can be better captured by the model. The regional subsets were defined according to the SREX segmentation, as defined by the IPCC. Each region is considered being relatively homogeneous in terms of large-scale climate and biomes, still capturing small-scale (grid-cell level) variability. Modelling within these regions is hence expected to be less uncertain due to the absence of these large-scale patterns, compared to a global approach. This overall modelling approach allows the comparison of model behavior for the different regions and may provide insights on the main dynamic processes driving the interaction between vegetation and climate within different regions. The data employed in this study encompasses the global datasets for soil properties (SoilGrids), terrain properties (Global Relief Model based on SRTM DEM and ETOPO), monthly time series of satellite-derived vegetation indices (GIMMS NDVI3g) and climate variables (Princeton Meteorological Forcing Dataset). The findings proved the potential of a spatio-temporal Bayesian modelling approach for assessing vegetation dynamics, at a regional scale. The observed interrelationships of the employed data and the different spatial and temporal trends support

  14. A Process-based Model of Global Lichen Productivity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Porada, P.; Kleidon, A.

    2012-04-01

    Lichens and biotic crusts are abundant in most ecosystems of the world. They are the main autotrophic organisms in many deserts and at high altitudes and they can also be found in large amounts as epiphytes in some forests, especially in the boreal zone. They are characterised by a great variety of physiological properties, such as growth form, productivity or color. Due to the vast land surface areas covered by lichens, they may contribute significantly to the global terrestrial net carbon uptake. Furthermore, they potentially play an important role with respect to nutrient cycles in some ecosystems and they have the ability to enhance weathering at the surface on which they grow. A possible way to quantify these processes at the global scale is presented here in form of a process-based lichen model. This approach is based on the concepts used in many dynamical vegetation models and extends these methods to account for the specific properties of lichens. Hence, processes such as photosynthesis, respiration and water exchange are implemented as well as important trade-offs like photosynthetic capacity versus respiratory load and water content versus CO2 conductivity. The great physiological variability of lichens is incorporated directly into the model through ranges of possible parameter values, which are randomly sampled. In this way, many artificial lichen "species" are created and climate then acts as a filter to determine the species which are able to survive permanently. By averaging over the surviving "species", the model predicts lichen productivity as a function of climate input data such as temperature, radiation and precipitation at the global scale. Consequently, the contribution of lichens to the global carbon balance can be quantified. Moreover, global patterns of lichen biodiversity and other properties can be illustrated. The model can be extended to account for the nutrient dynamics of lichens, such as nitrogen fixation and the acquisition and

  15. The modeling of global epidemics: stochastic dynamics and predictability.

    PubMed

    Colizza, V; Barrat, A; Barthélemy, M; Vespignani, A

    2006-11-01

    The global spread of emergent diseases is inevitably entangled with the structure of the population flows among different geographical regions. The airline transportation network in particular shrinks the geographical space by reducing travel time between the world's most populated areas and defines the main channels along which emergent diseases will spread. In this paper, we investigate the role of the large-scale properties of the airline transportation network in determining the global propagation pattern of emerging diseases. We put forward a stochastic computational framework for the modeling of the global spreading of infectious diseases that takes advantage of the complete International Air Transport Association 2002 database complemented with census population data. The model is analyzed by using for the first time an information theory approach that allows the quantitative characterization of the heterogeneity level and the predictability of the spreading pattern in presence of stochastic fluctuations. In particular we are able to assess the reliability of numerical forecast with respect to the intrinsic stochastic nature of the disease transmission and travel flows. The epidemic pattern predictability is quantitatively determined and traced back to the occurrence of epidemic pathways defining a backbone of dominant connections for the disease spreading. The presented results provide a general computational framework for the analysis of containment policies and risk forecast of global epidemic outbreaks.

  16. Global Models of Intermediate Timescale Variability on the Sun

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fox, Peter A.

    1990-01-01

    In recent years a number of advances in both observation and theory have increased our understanding of the solar interior and how to model it. For climate studies, the timescale of interest for changes in the Sun ranges from decades to centuries. Some of the theoretical advances that will contribute to the building of global models of the Sun's variability on intermediate timescales are described. The current constraints on the important components are discussed. Finally a short discussion presenting some implications for input to climate modeling is presented.

  17. A stoichiometrically derived algal growth model and its global analysis.

    PubMed

    Li, Xiong; Wang, Hao

    2010-10-01

    Organisms are composed of multiple chemical elements such as carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus. The scarcity of any of these elements can severely restrict organismal and population growth. However, many trophic interaction models only consider carbon limitation via energy flow. In this paper, we construct an algal growth model with the explicit incorporation of light and nutrient availability to characterize both carbon and phosphorus limitations. We provide a global analysis of this model to illustrate how light and nutrient availability regulate algal dynamics. PMID:21077710

  18. Intercomparison of hydrologic processes in global climate models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, W. K.-M.; Sud, Y. C.; Kim, J.-H.

    1995-01-01

    In this report, we address the intercomparison of precipitation (P), evaporation (E), and surface hydrologic forcing (P-E) for 23 Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) general circulation models (GCM's) including relevant observations, over a variety of spatial and temporal scales. The intercomparison includes global and hemispheric means, latitudinal profiles, selected area means for the tropics and extratropics, ocean and land, respectively. In addition, we have computed anomaly pattern correlations among models and observations for different seasons, harmonic analysis for annual and semiannual cycles, and rain-rate frequency distribution. We also compare the joint influence of temperature and precipitation on local climate using the Koeppen climate classification scheme.

  19. Global oscillation mechanism in the stochastic Lotka model.

    PubMed

    Kashcheyevs, V; Kuzovkov, V N

    2001-06-01

    The microscopic one-parameter kinetic model of the oscillatory A+B-->2 B reaction (Lotka model) is studied using direct Monte Carlo simulations and analytical methods. Percolation is proposed as the mechanism of global oscillations that are not limited to any finite size of a system. An analytical estimate of the oscillation frequency is derived and compared to computer simulations. We also observe the transition from synchronized oscillations to specific f(-2) noise in two dimensions which was previously reported for self-organized critical models.

  20. Simulation of Aerosols and Chemistry with a Unified Global Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chin, Mian

    2004-01-01

    This project is to continue the development of the global simulation capabilities of tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry and aerosols in a unified global model. This is a part of our overall investigation of aerosol-chemistry-climate interaction. In the past year, we have enabled the tropospheric chemistry simulations based on the GEOS-CHEM model, and added stratospheric chemical reactions into the GEOS-CHEM such that a globally unified troposphere-stratosphere chemistry and transport can be simulated consistently without any simplifications. The tropospheric chemical mechanism in the GEOS-CHEM includes 80 species and 150 reactions. 24 tracers are transported, including O3, NOx, total nitrogen (NOy), H2O2, CO, and several types of hydrocarbon. The chemical solver used in the GEOS-CHEM model is a highly accurate sparse-matrix vectorized Gear solver (SMVGEAR). The stratospheric chemical mechanism includes an additional approximately 100 reactions and photolysis processes. Because of the large number of total chemical reactions and photolysis processes and very different photochemical regimes involved in the unified simulation, the model demands significant computer resources that are currently not practical. Therefore, several improvements will be taken, such as massive parallelization, code optimization, or selecting a faster solver. We have also continued aerosol simulation (including sulfate, dust, black carbon, organic carbon, and sea-salt) in the global model to cover most of year 2002. These results have been made available to many groups worldwide and accessible from the website http://code916.gsfc.nasa.gov/People/Chin/aot.html.

  1. Expressions for the Global Gravimetric Moho Modeling in Spectral Domain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tenzer, Robert; Chen, Wenjin

    2014-08-01

    We apply a newly developed numerical method to improve the Moho geometry by the implementation of gravity data. This method utilizes expressions for the gravimetric forward and inverse modeling derived in a frequency domain. Methods for a spectral analysis and synthesis of the gravity field and crust density structures are applied in the gravimetric forward modeling of the consolidated crust-stripped gravity disturbances, which have a maximum correlation with the (a priori) Moho model. These gravity disturbances are obtained from the Earth's gravity disturbances after applying the topographic and stripping gravity corrections of major known anomalous crust density structures; in the absence of a global mantle model, mantle density heterogeneities are disregarded. The isostatic scheme applied is based on a complete compensation of the crust relative to the upper mantle density. The functional relation is established between the (unknown) Moho depths and the complete crust-stripped isostatic gravity disturbances, which according to the adopted isostatic scheme have (theoretically) a minimum correlation with the Moho geometry. The system of observation equations, which describes the relation between spherical functions of the isostatic gravity field and the Moho geometry, is defined by means of a linearized Fredholm integral equation of the first kind. The Moho depths are determined based on solving the gravimetric inverse problem. The regularization is applied to stabilize the ill-posed solution. This numerical procedure is utilized to determine the Moho depths globally. The gravimetric result is presented and compared with the seismic Moho model. Our gravimetric result has a relatively good agreement with the CRUST2.0 Moho model by means of the RMS of differences (of 3.5 km). However, the gravimetric solution has a systematic bias. We explain this bias between the gravimetric and seismic Moho models by the unmodelled mantle heterogeneities and uncertainties in the

  2. Spatial modeling of agricultural land use change at global scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meiyappan, P.; Dalton, M.; O'Neill, B. C.; Jain, A. K.

    2014-11-01

    Long-term modeling of agricultural land use is central in global scale assessments of climate change, food security, biodiversity, and climate adaptation and mitigation policies. We present a global-scale dynamic land use allocation model and show that it can reproduce the broad spatial features of the past 100 years of evolution of cropland and pastureland patterns. The modeling approach integrates economic theory, observed land use history, and data on both socioeconomic and biophysical determinants of land use change, and estimates relationships using long-term historical data, thereby making it suitable for long-term projections. The underlying economic motivation is maximization of expected profits by hypothesized landowners within each grid cell. The model predicts fractional land use for cropland and pastureland within each grid cell based on socioeconomic and biophysical driving factors that change with time. The model explicitly incorporates the following key features: (1) land use competition, (2) spatial heterogeneity in the nature of driving factors across geographic regions, (3) spatial heterogeneity in the relative importance of driving factors and previous land use patterns in determining land use allocation, and (4) spatial and temporal autocorrelation in land use patterns. We show that land use allocation approaches based solely on previous land use history (but disregarding the impact of driving factors), or those accounting for both land use history and driving factors by mechanistically fitting models for the spatial processes of land use change do not reproduce well long-term historical land use patterns. With an example application to the terrestrial carbon cycle, we show that such inaccuracies in land use allocation can translate into significant implications for global environmental assessments. The modeling approach and its evaluation provide an example that can be useful to the land use, Integrated Assessment, and the Earth system modeling

  3. Correction to "Influence of Dust and Black Carbon on the Snow Albedo in the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Version 5 Land Surface Model"

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yasunari, Teppei J.; Koster, Randal D.; Kau, K. M.; Aoki, Teruo; Sud, Yogesh C.; Yamazaki, Takeshi; Motoyoshi, Hiroki; Kokdama, Yuji

    2012-01-01

    The website information describing the forcing meteorological data used for the land surface model (LSM) simulation, which were observed at an Automated Meteorological Station CAWS) at the Sapporo District Meteorological Observatory maintained by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), was missing from the text. The 1-hourly data were obtained from the website of Kisyoutoukeijouhou (Information for available JMA-observed meteorological data in the past) on the website of JMA (in Japanese) (available at: http://www.jma.go.jpijmaimenulreport.html). The measurement height information of 59.5 m for the anemometer at the Sapporo Observatory was also obtained from the website of JMA (in Japanese) (available at: http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/menu/report.html). In addition, the converted 10-m wind speed, based on the AWS/JMA data, was further converted to a 2-m wind speed prior to its use with the land model as a usual treatment of off-line Catchment simulation. Please ignore the ice absorption data on the website mentioned in paragraph [15] which was not used for our calculations (but the data on the website was mostly the same as the estimated ice absorption coefficients by the following method because they partially used the same data by Warren [1984]). We calculated the ice absorption coefficients with the method mentioned in the same paragraph, for which some of the refractive index data by Warren [1984] were used and then interpolated between wavelengths, and also mentioned in paragraph [20] for the visible (VIS) and near-infrared (NIR) ranges. The optical data we used were interpolated between wavelengths as necessary.

  4. Global Drought Assessment using a Multi-Model Dataset

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    VanLanen, H.; Huijgevoort, M. V.; Corzo Perez, G.; Wanders, N.; Hazenberg, P.; Loon, A. V.; Estifanos, S.; Melsen, L.

    2011-12-01

    Large-scale models are often applied to study past drought (forced with global reanalysis datasets) and to assess future drought (using downscaled, bias-corrected forcing from climate models). The EU project WATer and global CHange (WATCH) provides a 0.5o degree global dataset of meteorological forcing (i.e. WATCH Forcing Data, WFD), which was used as input for a suite of global hydrological models (GHMs) and land surface models (LSMs). Ten GHMs and LSMs have been run for the second half of the 20th C and seven for the whole century. Spatio-temporal drought characteristics were derived from gridded time series of daily and monthly aggregated runoff using the threshold level, and non-contiguous and contiguous approaches. GHMs and LSMs were intercompared and to some extent also tested against observations to explore to what level these models capture past drought events. This paper will present an overview of results. Global maps showing drought summary statistics (e.g. average duration) and distribution of drought clusters across the globe for major documented drought events will be presented. In addition, area in drought and the occurrence of the maximum drought cluster will be discussed. The main results from a number of studies are: (i) drought characteristics across the globe vary dependent on the selected window of years, (ii) GHMs and LSMs broadly identified major drought events in a number of large river basins around the world, (iii) drought events obtained with individual GHMs an LSMs may substantially deviate from those derived with a catchment scale hydrological model (selected EU WATCH river basins), but the multi-model ensemble mean agrees rather well, (iv) use of different calculation methods for reference evapotranspiration has little to substantial influence on drought characteristics dependent on the climate region (Köppen-Geiger), (v) groundwater systems are as important as climate for the development of drought in runoff. Understanding of past

  5. On the global dynamics of a chronic myelogenous leukemia model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krishchenko, Alexander P.; Starkov, Konstantin E.

    2016-04-01

    In this paper we analyze some features of global dynamics of a three-dimensional chronic myelogenous leukemia (CML) model with the help of the stability analysis and the localization method of compact invariant sets. The behavior of CML model is defined by concentrations of three cellpopulations circulating in the blood: naive T cells, effector T cells specific to CML and CML cancer cells. We prove that the dynamics of the CML system around the tumor-free equilibrium point is unstable. Further, we compute ultimate upper bounds for all three cell populations and provide the existence conditions of the positively invariant polytope. One ultimate lower bound is obtained as well. Moreover, we describe the iterative localization procedure for refining localization bounds; this procedure is based on cyclic using of localizing functions. Applying this procedure we obtain conditions under which the internal tumor equilibrium point is globally asymptotically stable. Our theoretical analyses are supplied by results of the numerical simulation.

  6. Global land use data for integrated assessment modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Ramankutty, Navin

    2005-12-12

    Changes in land use and land cover have been one of the major drivers of global change over the last three centuries. Detailed spatially-explicit data sets characterizing these historical land cover changes are now emerging. By synthesizing remotely-sensed land cover classification data sets with historical land use census data, our research group has developed comprehensive databases of historical land use and land cover change. Moreover, we are building estimates of the land suitability for agriculture to predict the constraints on future land use. In this project, we have interacted with the Global Trade and Analysis Project (GTAP) at Purdue University, to adapt our land use data for use with the GTAP database, a baseline database widely used by the integrated assessment modeling community. Moreover, we have developed an interactive website for providing these newly emerging land use data products for the integrated assessment (IA) community and to the climate modeling community.

  7. Global model for the lithospheric strength and effective elastic thickness

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tesauro, Magdala; Kaban, Mikhail K.; Cloetingh, Sierd A. P. L.

    2013-08-01

    Global distribution of the strength and effective elastic thickness (Te) of the lithosphere are estimated using physical parameters from recent crustal and lithospheric models. For the Te estimation we apply a new approach, which provides a possibility to take into account variations of Young modulus (E) within the lithosphere. In view of the large uncertainties affecting strength estimates, we evaluate global strength and Te distributions for possible end-member 'hard' (HRM) and a 'soft' (SRM) rheology models of the continental crust. Temperature within the lithosphere has been estimated using a recent tomography model of Ritsema et al. (2011), which has much higher horizontal resolution than previous global models. Most of the strength is localized in the crust for the HRM and in the mantle for the SRM. These results contribute to the long debates on applicability of the "crème brulée" or "jelly-sandwich" model for the lithosphere structure. Changing from the SRM to HRM turns most of the continental areas from the totally decoupled mode to the fully coupled mode of the lithospheric layers. However, in the areas characterized by a high thermal regime and thick crust, the layers remain decoupled even for the HRM. At the same time, for the inner part of the cratons the lithospheric layers are coupled in both models. Therefore, rheological variations lead to large changes in the integrated strength and Te distribution in the regions characterized by intermediate thermal conditions. In these areas temperature uncertainties have a greater effect, since this parameter principally determines rheological behavior. Comparison of the Te estimates for both models with those determined from the flexural loading and spectral analysis shows that the 'hard' rheology is likely applicable for cratonic areas, whereas the 'soft' rheology is more representative for young orogens.

  8. Modeling the Terrestrial Contribution to the Global Methane Balance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, Amy Tetlow

    Most of the methane emitted into the atmosphere is produced microbiologically. Methanogenic bacteria in soils and sediments of natural wetlands are one of the largest sources of methane. The activity of these organisms is closely linked to environmental conditions. A climate -driven model of methane flux across the terrestrial surface is developed for analysis of atmosphere-biosphere interactions. The methane-flux model is based on temperature response of bacterial populations, and the requirement of anaerobic conditions for growth of methanogenic bacteria or the requirement of aerobic conditions for growth of methane-oxidizing bacteria. A biological inertia factor is also used to reflect dependence on previous bacterial conditions. Model parameters are fit for characteristic ecosystems based on the availability of appropriate time -series data. Using air temperature and precipitation climatologies as both direct and indirect model input, monthly methane fluxes are calculated for muskeg tundra, wet-meadow tundra, temperate and tropical wetlands, cool woods, and tropical savanna. Ecosystem models performed well in diverse environments. Annual -flux totals based on these models are consistent with published methane-budget estimates. To evaluate the global distribution of methane flux, emission estimates from rice cultivation, grazing animals, termites, biomass burning, and fossil fuel extraction and transportation are combined with the ecosystem-model estimates. The resulting global distribution of methane flux shows that the mid-latitudes of the northern hemisphere are the strongest methane source zone. Summer and fall are the most important emission seasons for in any latitudinal zone. My estimated atmospheric residence time of methane, calculated using this global-flux distribution, also agrees well with other published values.

  9. Climate Models from the Joint Global Change Research Institute

    DOE Data Explorer

    Staff at the Joint Institute develop and use models to simulate the economic and physical impacts of global change policy options. The GCAM, for example, gives analysts insight into how regional and national economies might respond to climate change mitigation policies including carbon taxes, carbon trading, and accelerated deployment of energy technology. Three available models are Phoenix, GCAM, and EPIC. Phoenix is a global, dynamic recursive, computable general equilibrium model that is solved in five-year time steps from 2005 through 2100 and divides the world into twenty-four regions. Each region includes twenty-six industrial sectors. Particular attention is paid to energy production in Phoenix. There are nine electricity-generating technologies (coal, natural gas, oil, biomass, nuclear, hydro, wind, solar, and geothermal) and four additional energy commodities: crude oil, refined oil products, coal, and natural gas. Phoenix is designed to answer economic questions related to international climate and energy policy and international trade. Phoenix replaces the Second Generation Model (SGM) that was formerly used for general equilibrium analysis at JGCRI. GCAM is the Global Change Assessment Model, a partial equilibrium model of the world with 14 regions. GCAM operates in 5 year time steps from 1990 to 2095 and is designed to examine long-term changes in the coupled energy, agriculture/land-use, and climate system. GCAM includes a 151-region agriculture land-use module and a reduced form carbon cycle and climate module in addition to its incorporation of demographics, resources, energy production and consumption. The model has been used extensively in a number of assessment and modeling activities such as the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF), the U.S. Climate Change Technology Program, and the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and IPCC assessment reports. GCAM is now freely available as a community model. The Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) Model

  10. Improved data for integrated modeling of global environmental change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lotze-Campen, Hermann

    2011-12-01

    The assessment of global environmental changes, their impact on human societies, and possible management options requires large-scale, integrated modeling efforts. These models have to link biophysical with socio-economic processes, and they have to take spatial heterogeneity of environmental conditions into account. Land use change and freshwater use are two key research areas where spatial aggregation and the use of regional average numbers may lead to biased results. Useful insights can only be obtained if processes like economic globalization can be consistently linked to local environmental conditions and resource constraints (Lambin and Meyfroidt 2011). Spatially explicit modeling of environmental changes at the global scale has a long tradition in the natural sciences (Woodward et al 1995, Alcamo et al 1996, Leemans et al 1996). Socio-economic models with comparable spatial detail, e.g. on grid-based land use change, are much less common (Heistermann et al 2006), but are increasingly being developed (Popp et al 2011, Schneider et al 2011). Spatially explicit models require spatially explicit input data, which often constrains their development and application at the global scale. The amount and quality of available data on environmental conditions is growing fast—primarily due to improved earth observation methods. Moreover, systematic efforts for collecting and linking these data across sectors are on the way (www.earthobservations.org). This has, among others, also helped to provide consistent databases on different land cover and land use types (Erb et al 2007). However, spatially explicit data on specific anthropogenic driving forces of global environmental change are still scarce—also because these cannot be collected with satellites or other devices. The basic data on socio-economic driving forces, i.e. population density and wealth (measured as gross domestic product per capita), have been prepared for spatially explicit analyses (CIESIN, IFPRI

  11. The role of global cloud climatologies in validating numerical models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    HARSHVARDHAN

    1992-01-01

    Global maps of the monthly mean net upward longwave radiation flux at the ocean surface were obtained for April, July, October 1985 and January 1986. These maps were produced by blending information obtained from a combination of general circulation model cloud radiative forcing fields, the top of the atmosphere cloud radiative forcing from ERBE and TOVS profiles and sea surface temperature on ISCCP C1 tapes. The fields are compatible with known meteorological regimes of atmospheric water vapor content and cloudiness. There is a vast area of high net upward longwave radiation flux (greater than 80/sq Wm) in the eastern Pacific Ocean throughout most of the year. Areas of low net upward longwave radiation flux ((less than 40/sq Wm) are the tropical convective regions and extra tropical regions that tend to have persistent low cloud cover.The technique used relies on General Circulation Model simulations and so is subject to some of the uncertainties associated with the model. However, all input information regarding temperature, moisture, and cloud cover is from satellite data having near global coverage. This feature of the procedure alone warrants its consideration for further use in compiling global maps of longwave radiation.

  12. A global model of carbon-nutrient interactions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moore, Berrien, III; Gildea, Patricia; Vorosmarty, Charles; Mellilo, Jerry M.; Peterson, Bruce J.

    1985-01-01

    The global biogeochemical model presented has two primary objectives. First, it characterizes natural elemental cycles and their linkages for the four elements significant to Earth's biota: C, N, S, and P. Second, it describes changes in these cycles due to human activity. Global nutrient cycles were studied within the drainage basins of several major world rivers on each continent. The initial study region was the Mississippi drainage basin, concentrating on carbon and nitrogen. The model first establishes the nutrient budgets of the undisturbed ecosystems in a study region. It then uses a data set of land use histories for that region to document the changes in these budgets due to land uses. Nutrient movement was followed over time (1800 to 1980) for 30 ecosystems and 10 land use categories. A geographically referenced ecological information system (GREIS) was developed to manage the digital global data bases of 0.5 x 0.5 grid cells needed to run the model: potential vegetation, drainage basins, precipitation, runoff, contemporary land cover, and FAO soil maps of the world. The results show the contributions of land use categories to river nutrient loads on a continental scale; shifts in nutrient cycling patterns from closed, steady state systems to mobile transient or open, steady state systems; soil organic matter depletion patterns in U.S. agricultural lands; changing nutrient ratios due to land use changes; and the effect of using heavy fertilizer on aquatic systems.

  13. Prediction Activities at NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schubert, Siegfried

    2010-01-01

    The Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) is a core NASA resource for the development and use of satellite observations through the integrating tools of models and assimilation systems. Global ocean, atmosphere and land surface models are developed as components of assimilation and forecast systems that are used for addressing the weather and climate research questions identified in NASA's science mission. In fact, the GMAO is actively engaged in addressing one of NASA's science mission s key questions concerning how well transient climate variations can be understood and predicted. At weather time scales the GMAO is developing ultra-high resolution global climate models capable of resolving high impact weather systems such as hurricanes. The ability to resolve the detailed characteristics of weather systems within a global framework greatly facilitates addressing fundamental questions concerning the link between weather and climate variability. At sub-seasonal time scales, the GMAO is engaged in research and development to improve the use of land information (especially soil moisture), and in the improved representation and initialization of various sub-seasonal atmospheric variability (such as the MJO) that evolves on time scales longer than weather and involves exchanges with both the land and ocean The GMAO has a long history of development for advancing the seasonal-to-interannual (S-I) prediction problem using an older version of the coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM). This includes the development of an Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) to facilitate the multivariate assimilation of ocean surface altimetry, and an EnKF developed for the highly inhomogeneous nature of the errors in land surface models, as well as the multivariate assimilation needed to take advantage of surface soil moisture and snow observations. The importance of decadal variability, especially that associated with long-term droughts is well recognized by the

  14. Further improvements on a global nuclear mass model

    SciTech Connect

    Liu Min; Wang Ning; Deng Yangge; Wu Xizhen

    2011-07-15

    The semi-empirical macroscopic-microscopic mass formula is further improved by considering some residual corrections. The rms deviation from 2149 known nuclear masses is significantly reduced to 336 keV, even lower than that achieved with the best of the Duflo-Zuker models. The {alpha}-decay energies of super-heavy nuclei, the Garvey-Kelson relations, and the isobaric multiplet mass equation (IMME) can be reproduced remarkably well with the model, and the predictive power of the mass model is good. With a systematic study of 17 global nuclear mass models, we find that the quadratic form of the IMME is closely related to the accuracy of nuclear mass calculations when the Garvey-Kelson relations are reproduced reasonably well. Fulfilling both the IMME and the Garvey-Kelson relations seem to be two necessary conditions for improving the quality of the model prediction. Furthermore, the {alpha}-decay energies of super-heavy nuclei should be used as an additional constraint on global nuclear mass models.

  15. NCAR global model topography generation software for unstructured grids

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lauritzen, P. H.; Bacmeister, J. T.; Callaghan, P. F.; Taylor, M. A.

    2015-06-01

    It is the purpose of this paper to document the NCAR global model topography generation software for unstructured grids. Given a model grid, the software computes the fraction of the grid box covered by land, the gridbox mean elevation, and associated sub-grid scale variances commonly used for gravity wave and turbulent mountain stress parameterizations. The software supports regular latitude-longitude grids as well as unstructured grids; e.g. icosahedral, Voronoi, cubed-sphere and variable resolution grids. As an example application and in the spirit of documenting model development, exploratory simulations illustrating the impacts of topographic smoothing with the NCAR-DOE CESM (Community Earth System Model) CAM5.2-SE (Community Atmosphere Model version 5.2 - Spectral Elements dynamical core) are shown.

  16. The 5'×5' global geoid model GGM2016

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shen, WenBin; Han, Jiancheng

    2016-04-01

    We provide an updated 5'×5' global geoid model GGM2016, which is determined based on the shallow layer method (Shen 2006). We choose an inner surface S below the EGM2008 geoid, and the layer bounded by the inner surface S and the Earth's geographical surface E is referred to as the shallow layer. The Earth's geographical surface E is determined by the digital topographic model DTM2006.0 combining with the DNSC2008 mean sea surface. We determine the 3D shallow layer model (SLM) using the refined crust density model CRUST1.0-5min, which is an improved 5'×5' density model of the CRUST1.0 with taking into account the corrections of the areas covered by ice sheets and the land-ocean crossing regions. Based on the SLM and the gravity field EGM2008 defined outside the Earth's geographical surface E, we determine the gravity field EGM2008S defined in the region outside the inner surface S, extending the gravity field's definition domain from the domain outside E to the domain outside S. Based on the geodetic equation W(P)=W0, where W0 is the geopotential constant on the geoid, we determine a 5'×5' global geoid model GGM2016, which provides both the 5'×5' grid values and spherical harmonic coefficient expressions. Comparisons show that the GGM2016 fits the globally available GPS/leveling points better than the EGM2008 geoid. This study is supported by National 973 Project China (grant Nos. 2013CB733301 and 2013CB733305), NSFC (grant Nos. 41174011, 41210006, 41429401, 41128003, 41021061).

  17. Improved data for integrated modeling of global environmental change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lotze-Campen, Hermann

    2011-12-01

    The assessment of global environmental changes, their impact on human societies, and possible management options requires large-scale, integrated modeling efforts. These models have to link biophysical with socio-economic processes, and they have to take spatial heterogeneity of environmental conditions into account. Land use change and freshwater use are two key research areas where spatial aggregation and the use of regional average numbers may lead to biased results. Useful insights can only be obtained if processes like economic globalization can be consistently linked to local environmental conditions and resource constraints (Lambin and Meyfroidt 2011). Spatially explicit modeling of environmental changes at the global scale has a long tradition in the natural sciences (Woodward et al 1995, Alcamo et al 1996, Leemans et al 1996). Socio-economic models with comparable spatial detail, e.g. on grid-based land use change, are much less common (Heistermann et al 2006), but are increasingly being developed (Popp et al 2011, Schneider et al 2011). Spatially explicit models require spatially explicit input data, which often constrains their development and application at the global scale. The amount and quality of available data on environmental conditions is growing fast—primarily due to improved earth observation methods. Moreover, systematic efforts for collecting and linking these data across sectors are on the way (www.earthobservations.org). This has, among others, also helped to provide consistent databases on different land cover and land use types (Erb et al 2007). However, spatially explicit data on specific anthropogenic driving forces of global environmental change are still scarce—also because these cannot be collected with satellites or other devices. The basic data on socio-economic driving forces, i.e. population density and wealth (measured as gross domestic product per capita), have been prepared for spatially explicit analyses (CIESIN, IFPRI

  18. Will a perfect global model agree with perfect observations?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schutgens, N.; Gryspeerdt, E.; Tsyro, S.; Weigum, N.; Partridge, D.; Goto, D.; Schulz, M.; Stier, P.

    2015-12-01

    Global aerosol models and observations differ strongly in their spatio-temporal sampling. Model results are typical of large gridboxes (200 by 200 km), while observations are made over much smaller areas (e.g. 10 by 10 km for MODIS, even smaller for ground sites). Model results are always available in contrast to observations that are intermittent due to orbital constraints, retrieval limitations and instrument failure/maintenance. These twin issues of temporal sampling and spatial aggregation are relevant for any observation, be it remotely sensed, or in-situ. We ask this question: will a perfect model agree with perfect observations? The short answer is: unlikely. Using two different modelling frame-works (year-long global model runs collocated with actual observations and month-long high resolution regional models runs) we show that significant errors can be introduced in a model to observation comparison due to different spatio-temporal sampling. These sampling errors are typically larger than observational errors and are of comparable size as true model errors. While the temporal sampling issue can be dealt with by properly resampling model data to observation times, the spatial aggregation issue introduces noise into the comparison. We propose and evaluate several strategies for mitigating this noise. The most succesfull strategy is further temporal averaging of the data. However, this seems to have a less benefical effect on surface in-situ observations than on remotely sensed column-integrated measurements. For instance, monthly averaged black carbon mass concentrations measured at ground sites still allow significant (~ 30%) noise into the comparison. Furthermore, flight campaign data, by its nature, are not open to long-term (monthly, yearly) averaging and allow sampling errors of 50% or more in black carbon mass concentrations. Other observables (AOT, extinction profiles, number densities, PM2.5, CCN) will also be discussed.

  19. Current plate motions. [continental groupings and global modelling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Demets, C.; Gordon, R. G.; Argus, D. F.; Stein, S.

    1990-01-01

    A global plate motion model, named NUVEL-1, which describes current plate motions between 12 rigid plates is described, with special attention given to the method, data, and assumptions used. Tectonic implications of the patterns that emerged from the results are discussed. It is shown that wide plate boundary zones can form not only within the continental lithosphere but also within the oceanic lithosphere; e.g., between the Indian and Australian plates and between the North American and South American plates. Results of the model also suggest small but significant diffuse deformation of the oceanic lithosphere, which may be confined to small awkwardly shaped salients of major plates.

  20. A global, real-time flood monitoring model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balcerak, Ernie

    2014-07-01

    Floods kill thousands of people and cause billions of dollars in damage each year, and many floods occur in areas of the world that lack resources for flood monitoring and forecasting systems. Wu et al. report on an experimental real-time global flood monitoring system that employs a widely used land surface model coupled with a hierarchical dominant river tracing-based runoff routing model and satellite-based precipitation data to provide streamflow and flood detection/estimation information over most of the globe every 3 hours.

  1. Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model 2010 Version: Users Guide

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Justh, H. L.

    2014-01-01

    This Technical Memorandum (TM) presents the Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model 2010 (Mars-GRAM 2010) and its new features. Mars-GRAM is an engineering-level atmospheric model widely used for diverse mission applications. Applications include systems design, performance analysis, and operations planning for aerobraking, entry, descent and landing, and aerocapture. Additionally, this TM includes instructions on obtaining the Mars-GRAM source code and data files as well as running Mars-GRAM. It also contains sample Mars-GRAM input and output files and an example of how to incorporate Mars-GRAM as an atmospheric subroutine in a trajectory code.

  2. Modeling the spatial spread of infectious diseases: the GLobal Epidemic and Mobility computational model

    PubMed Central

    Balcan, Duygu; Gonçalves, Bruno; Hu, Hao; Ramasco, José J.; Colizza, Vittoria

    2010-01-01

    Here we present the Global Epidemic and Mobility (GLEaM) model that integrates sociodemographic and population mobility data in a spatially structured stochastic disease approach to simulate the spread of epidemics at the worldwide scale. We discuss the flexible structure of the model that is open to the inclusion of different disease structures and local intervention policies. This makes GLEaM suitable for the computational modeling and anticipation of the spatio-temporal patterns of global epidemic spreading, the understanding of historical epidemics, the assessment of the role of human mobility in shaping global epidemics, and the analysis of mitigation and containment scenarios. PMID:21415939

  3. Global Earthquake Activity Rate models based on version 2 of the Global Strain Rate Map

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bird, P.; Kreemer, C.; Kagan, Y. Y.; Jackson, D. D.

    2013-12-01

    Global Earthquake Activity Rate (GEAR) models have usually been based on either relative tectonic motion (fault slip rates and/or distributed strain rates), or on smoothing of seismic catalogs. However, a hybrid approach appears to perform better than either parent, at least in some retrospective tests. First, we construct a Tectonic ('T') forecast of shallow (≤ 70 km) seismicity based on global plate-boundary strain rates from version 2 of the Global Strain Rate Map. Our approach is the SHIFT (Seismic Hazard Inferred From Tectonics) method described by Bird et al. [2010, SRL], in which the character of the strain rate tensor (thrusting and/or strike-slip and/or normal) is used to select the most comparable type of plate boundary for calibration of the coupled seismogenic lithosphere thickness and corner magnitude. One difference is that activity of offshore plate boundaries is spatially smoothed using empirical half-widths [Bird & Kagan, 2004, BSSA] before conversion to seismicity. Another is that the velocity-dependence of coupling in subduction and continental-convergent boundaries [Bird et al., 2009, BSSA] is incorporated. Another forecast component is the smoothed-seismicity ('S') forecast model of [Kagan & Jackson, 1994, JGR; Kagan & Jackson, 2010, GJI], which was based on optimized smoothing of the shallow part of the GCMT catalog, years 1977-2004. Both forecasts were prepared for threshold magnitude 5.767. Then, we create hybrid forecasts by one of 3 methods: (a) taking the greater of S or T; (b) simple weighted-average of S and T; or (c) log of the forecast rate is a weighted average of the logs of S and T. In methods (b) and (c) there is one free parameter, which is the fractional contribution from S. All hybrid forecasts are normalized to the same global rate. Pseudo-prospective tests for 2005-2012 (using versions of S and T calibrated on years 1977-2004) show that many hybrid models outperform both parents (S and T), and that the optimal weight on S

  4. A Mathematical Model of the Global Ocean Saltwater Density Distribution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gladkikh, Vladislav; Tenzer, Robert

    2012-01-01

    We formulate a functional model which closely approximates the actual seawater density distribution. The methodology of finding a theoretical density model is based on the analysis of the global data of pressure/depth, salinity, and temperature from the World Ocean Atlas 2009 (provided by NOAA's National Oceanographic Data Center) and the World Ocean Circulation Experiment 2004 (provided by the German Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency). The seawater density values are calculated according to the thermodynamic equation of seawater TEOS-10. The global seawater density model is defined as a function of the ocean depth (to account for density variations due to pressure) and geographical latitude (to account for density variations due to salinity and temperature). A more complex functional density model is formulated to account for a large seawater density gradient within the pycnocline caused mainly by a combination of decreasing water temperature and increasing salinity with depth. The results of numerical analysis reveal that the new functional model based on the depth and latitudinal density variations approximates the actual seawater density distribution with a relative accuracy better than 0.45%. When incorporating the pycnocline density gradient correction, the accuracy further improves to about 0.25% (except for the shelf seas with the presence of the continental hydrological signal and other oceanographic factors). The results also show that the average seawater density (estimated from the experimental data used in this study) is 1038.5 ± 2.4 kg/m3.

  5. Statistical modeling of global geogenic arsenic contamination in groundwater.

    PubMed

    Amini, Manouchehr; Abbaspour, Karim C; Berg, Michael; Winkel, Lenny; Hug, Stephan J; Hoehn, Eduard; Yang, Hong; Johnson, C Annette

    2008-05-15

    Contamination of groundwaters with geogenic arsenic poses a major health risk to millions of people. Although the main geochemical mechanisms of arsenic mobilization are well understood, the worldwide scale of affected regions is still unknown. In this study we used a large database of measured arsenic concentration in groundwaters (around 20,000 data points) from around the world as well as digital maps of physical characteristics such as soil, geology, climate, and elevation to model probability maps of global arsenic contamination. A novel rule-based statistical procedure was used to combine the physical data and expert knowledge to delineate two process regions for arsenic mobilization: "reducing" and "high-pH/ oxidizing". Arsenic concentrations were modeled in each region using regression analysis and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inferencing followed by Latin hypercube sampling for uncertainty propagation to produce probability maps. The derived global arsenic models could benefit from more accurate geologic information and aquifer chemical/physical information. Using some proxy surface information, however, the models explained 77% of arsenic variation in reducing regions and 68% of arsenic variation in high-pH/oxidizing regions. The probability maps based on the above models correspond well with the known contaminated regions around the world and delineate new untested areas that have a high probability of arsenic contamination. Notable among these regions are South East and North West of China in Asia, Central Australia, New Zealand, Northern Afghanistan, and Northern Mali and Zambia in Africa.

  6. Statistical modeling of global geogenic arsenic contamination in groundwater.

    PubMed

    Amini, Manouchehr; Abbaspour, Karim C; Berg, Michael; Winkel, Lenny; Hug, Stephan J; Hoehn, Eduard; Yang, Hong; Johnson, C Annette

    2008-05-15

    Contamination of groundwaters with geogenic arsenic poses a major health risk to millions of people. Although the main geochemical mechanisms of arsenic mobilization are well understood, the worldwide scale of affected regions is still unknown. In this study we used a large database of measured arsenic concentration in groundwaters (around 20,000 data points) from around the world as well as digital maps of physical characteristics such as soil, geology, climate, and elevation to model probability maps of global arsenic contamination. A novel rule-based statistical procedure was used to combine the physical data and expert knowledge to delineate two process regions for arsenic mobilization: "reducing" and "high-pH/ oxidizing". Arsenic concentrations were modeled in each region using regression analysis and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inferencing followed by Latin hypercube sampling for uncertainty propagation to produce probability maps. The derived global arsenic models could benefit from more accurate geologic information and aquifer chemical/physical information. Using some proxy surface information, however, the models explained 77% of arsenic variation in reducing regions and 68% of arsenic variation in high-pH/oxidizing regions. The probability maps based on the above models correspond well with the known contaminated regions around the world and delineate new untested areas that have a high probability of arsenic contamination. Notable among these regions are South East and North West of China in Asia, Central Australia, New Zealand, Northern Afghanistan, and Northern Mali and Zambia in Africa. PMID:18546706

  7. Global-scale regionalization of hydrologic model parameters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beck, Hylke E.; van Dijk, Albert I. J. M.; de Roo, Ad; Miralles, Diego G.; McVicar, Tim R.; Schellekens, Jaap; Bruijnzeel, L. Adrian

    2016-05-01

    Current state-of-the-art models typically applied at continental to global scales (hereafter called macroscale) tend to use a priori parameters, resulting in suboptimal streamflow (Q) simulation. For the first time, a scheme for regionalization of model parameters at the global scale was developed. We used data from a diverse set of 1787 small-to-medium sized catchments (10-10,000 km2) and the simple conceptual HBV model to set up and test the scheme. Each catchment was calibrated against observed daily Q, after which 674 catchments with high calibration and validation scores, and thus presumably good-quality observed Q and forcing data, were selected to serve as donor catchments. The calibrated parameter sets for the donors were subsequently transferred to 0.5° grid cells with similar climatic and physiographic characteristics, resulting in parameter maps for HBV with global coverage. For each grid cell, we used the 10 most similar donor catchments, rather than the single most similar donor, and averaged the resulting simulated Q, which enhanced model performance. The 1113 catchments not used as donors were used to independently evaluate the scheme. The regionalized parameters outperformed spatially uniform (i.e., averaged calibrated) parameters for 79% of the evaluation catchments. Substantial improvements were evident for all major Köppen-Geiger climate types and even for evaluation catchments > 5000 km distant from the donors. The median improvement was about half of the performance increase achieved through calibration. HBV with regionalized parameters outperformed nine state-of-the-art macroscale models, suggesting these might also benefit from the new regionalization scheme. The produced HBV parameter maps including ancillary data are available via www.gloh2o.org.

  8. Global-scale regionalization of hydrologic model parameters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beck, Hylke; van Dijk, Albert; de Roo, Ad; Miralles, Diego; Schellekens, Jaap; McVicar, Tim; Bruijnzeel, Sampurno

    2016-04-01

    Current state-of-the-art models typically applied at continental to global scales (hereafter called macro-scale) tend to use a priori parameters, resulting in suboptimal streamflow (Q) simulation. For the first time, a scheme for regionalization of model parameters at the global scale was developed. We used data from a diverse set of 1787 small-to-medium sized catchments (10--10 000~km^2) and the simple conceptual HBV model to set up and test the scheme. Each catchment was calibrated against observed daily Q, after which 674 catchments with high calibration and validation scores, and thus presumably good-quality observed Q and forcing data, were selected to serve as donor catchments. The calibrated parameter sets for the donors were subsequently transferred to 0.5° grid cells with similar climatic and physiographic characteristics, resulting in parameter maps for HBV with global coverage. For each grid cell, we used the ten most similar donor catchments, rather than the single most similar donor, and averaged the resulting simulated Q, which enhanced model performance. The 1113 catchments not used as donors were used to independently evaluate the scheme. The regionalized parameters outperformed spatially-uniform (i.e., averaged calibrated) parameters for 79~% of the evaluation catchments. Substantial improvements were evident for all major Köppen-Geiger climate types and even for evaluation catchments >5000~km distance from the donors. The median improvement was about half of the performance increase achieved through calibration. HBV using regionalized parameters outperformed nine state-of-the-art macro-scale models, suggesting these might also benefit from the new regionalization scheme. The produced HBV parameter maps including ancillary data are available via http://water.jrc.ec.europa.eu/HBV/.

  9. Global horizontal irradiance clear sky models : implementation and analysis.

    SciTech Connect

    Stein, Joshua S.; Hansen, Clifford W.; Reno, Matthew J.

    2012-03-01

    Clear sky models estimate the terrestrial solar radiation under a cloudless sky as a function of the solar elevation angle, site altitude, aerosol concentration, water vapor, and various atmospheric conditions. This report provides an overview of a number of global horizontal irradiance (GHI) clear sky models from very simple to complex. Validation of clear-sky models requires comparison of model results to measured irradiance during clear-sky periods. To facilitate validation, we present a new algorithm for automatically identifying clear-sky periods in a time series of GHI measurements. We evaluate the performance of selected clear-sky models using measured data from 30 different sites, totaling about 300 site-years of data. We analyze the variation of these errors across time and location. In terms of error averaged over all locations and times, we found that complex models that correctly account for all the atmospheric parameters are slightly more accurate than other models, but, primarily at low elevations, comparable accuracy can be obtained from some simpler models. However, simpler models often exhibit errors that vary with time of day and season, whereas the errors for complex models vary less over time.

  10. Spatially-explicit models of global tree density

    PubMed Central

    Glick, Henry B.; Bettigole, Charlie; Maynard, Daniel S.; Covey, Kristofer R.; Smith, Jeffrey R.; Crowther, Thomas W.

    2016-01-01

    Remote sensing and geographic analysis of woody vegetation provide means of evaluating the distribution of natural resources, patterns of biodiversity and ecosystem structure, and socio-economic drivers of resource utilization. While these methods bring geographic datasets with global coverage into our day-to-day analytic spheres, many of the studies that rely on these strategies do not capitalize on the extensive collection of existing field data. We present the methods and maps associated with the first spatially-explicit models of global tree density, which relied on over 420,000 forest inventory field plots from around the world. This research is the result of a collaborative effort engaging over 20 scientists and institutions, and capitalizes on an array of analytical strategies. Our spatial data products offer precise estimates of the number of trees at global and biome scales, but should not be used for local-level estimation. At larger scales, these datasets can contribute valuable insight into resource management, ecological modelling efforts, and the quantification of ecosystem services. PMID:27529613

  11. Spatially-explicit models of global tree density.

    PubMed

    Glick, Henry B; Bettigole, Charlie; Maynard, Daniel S; Covey, Kristofer R; Smith, Jeffrey R; Crowther, Thomas W

    2016-01-01

    Remote sensing and geographic analysis of woody vegetation provide means of evaluating the distribution of natural resources, patterns of biodiversity and ecosystem structure, and socio-economic drivers of resource utilization. While these methods bring geographic datasets with global coverage into our day-to-day analytic spheres, many of the studies that rely on these strategies do not capitalize on the extensive collection of existing field data. We present the methods and maps associated with the first spatially-explicit models of global tree density, which relied on over 420,000 forest inventory field plots from around the world. This research is the result of a collaborative effort engaging over 20 scientists and institutions, and capitalizes on an array of analytical strategies. Our spatial data products offer precise estimates of the number of trees at global and biome scales, but should not be used for local-level estimation. At larger scales, these datasets can contribute valuable insight into resource management, ecological modelling efforts, and the quantification of ecosystem services. PMID:27529613

  12. Investigating global brown carbon from both measurements and models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, X.; Heald, C. L.

    2015-12-01

    Brown carbon (BrC) is the component of organic aerosols (OA) which strongly absorbs solar radiation in the near-UV range of the spectrum. BrC properties and the resulting radiative effects are highly uncertain, limiting our ability to estimate near-term and regional climate forcing. Since both the source and optical properties of BrC are not well understood, it is challenging to develop a reliable model frameworks for BrC. On the other hand, field and laboratory measurements of BrC are rare and provide limited constraints. BrC absorption exhibits strong spectral dependence, which differs from black carbon (BC), the other important fine aerosol absorber. Based on this property, we develop an innovative approach to derive BrC absorption from multi-wavelength absorption measurements. By analyzing the Aerosol Absorption Optical Depth (AAOD) data from global AERONET network, we find that the optical properties of BrC are connected to the BC/OA ratio, as suggested by recent work. In view of this finding, we develop and discuss a series of different methods to simulate BrC absorption in the GEOS-Chem global model and estimate an associated range for global BrC burden and direct radiative forcing (DRF).

  13. The Global Modeling Initiative Assessment Model: Model Description, Integration and Testing of the Transport Shell

    SciTech Connect

    Rotman, D.A.; Tannahill, J.R.; Kinnison, D.E.; Connell, P.S.; Bergmann, D.; Proctor, D.; Rodriquez, J.M.; Lin, S.J.; Rood, R.B.; Prather, M.J.; Rasch, P.J.; Considine, D.B.; Ramaroson, R.; Kawa, S.R.

    2000-04-25

    We describe the three dimensional global stratospheric chemistry model developed under the NASA Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) to assess the possible environmental consequences from the emissions of a fleet of proposed high speed civil transport aircraft. This model was developed through a unique collaboration of the members of the GMI team. Team members provided computational modules representing various physical and chemical processes, and analysis of simulation results through extensive comparison to observation. The team members' modules were integrated within a computational framework that allowed transportability and simulations on massively parallel computers. A unique aspect of this model framework is the ability to interchange and intercompare different submodules to assess the sensitivity of numerical algorithms and model assumptions to simulation results. In this paper, we discuss the important attributes of the GMI effort, describe the GMI model computational framework and the numerical modules representing physical and chemical processes. As an application of the concept, we illustrate an analysis of the impact of advection algorithms on the dispersion of a NO{sub y}-like source in the stratosphere which mimics that of a fleet of commercial supersonic transports (High-Speed Civil Transport (HSCT)) flying between 17 and 20 kilometers.

  14. CIDGA - Coupling of Interior Dynamic models with Global Atmosphere models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Noack, Lena; Plesa, Ana-Catalina; Breuer, Doris

    2010-05-01

    Atmosphere temperatures and in particular the surface temperatures mostly depend on the solar heat flux and the atmospheric composition. The latter can be influenced by interior processes of the planet, i.e. volcanism that releases greenhouse gases such as H2O, CO2 and methane into the atmosphere and plate tectonics through which atmospheric CO2 is recycled via carbonates into the mantle. An increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere results in an increase of the surface temperature. Changes in the surface temperature on the other hand may influence the cooling behaviour of the planet and hence influence its volcanic activity [Phillips et al., 2001]. This feedback relation between mantle convection and atmosphere is not very well understood, since until now mostly either the interior dynamic of a planet or its atmosphere was investigated separately. 2D or 3D mantle convection models to the authors' knowledge haven't been coupled to the atmosphere so far. We have used the 3D spherical simulation code GAIA [Hüttig et al., 2008] including partial melt production and coupled it with the atmosphere module CIDGA using a gray greenhouse model for varying H2O concentrations. This way, not only the influence of mantle dynamics on the atmosphere can be investigated, but also the recoupling effect, that the surface temperature has on the mantle dynamics. So far, we consider one-plate planets without crustal and thus volatile recycling. Phillips et al. [2001] already investigated the coupling effect of the surface temperature on mantle dynamics by using simple parameterized convection models for Venus. In their model a positive feedback mechanism has been observed, i.e., an increase of the surface temperature leads to an increase of partial melt and hence an increase of atmosphere density and surface temperature. Applying our model to Venus, we show that an increase of surface temperature leads not only to an increase of partial melt in the mantle; it also

  15. Methods for accurate homology modeling by global optimization.

    PubMed

    Joo, Keehyoung; Lee, Jinwoo; Lee, Jooyoung

    2012-01-01

    High accuracy protein modeling from its sequence information is an important step toward revealing the sequence-structure-function relationship of proteins and nowadays it becomes increasingly more useful for practical purposes such as in drug discovery and in protein design. We have developed a protocol for protein structure prediction that can generate highly accurate protein models in terms of backbone structure, side-chain orientation, hydrogen bonding, and binding sites of ligands. To obtain accurate protein models, we have combined a powerful global optimization method with traditional homology modeling procedures such as multiple sequence alignment, chain building, and side-chain remodeling. We have built a series of specific score functions for these steps, and optimized them by utilizing conformational space annealing, which is one of the most successful combinatorial optimization algorithms currently available.

  16. 14C-age tracers in global ocean circulation models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koeve, W.; Wagner, H.; Kähler, P.; Oschlies, A.

    2014-10-01

    The natural abundance of 14C in total CO2 dissolved in seawater is a property applied to evaluate the water age structure and circulation in the ocean and in ocean models. In this study we use three different representations of the global ocean circulation augmented with a suite of idealised tracers to study the potential and limitations of using natural 14C to determine water age, the time elapsed since a body of water had contact with the atmosphere. We find that, globally, bulk 14C-age is dominated by two equally important components, one associated with aging, i.e. the time component of circulation and one associated with a "preformed 14C-age". This latter quantity exists because of the slow and incomplete atmosphere/ocean equilibration of 14C in particular in high latitudes where many water masses form. The relative contribution of the preformed component to bulk 14C-age varies regionally within a given model, but also between models. Regional variability, e.g. in the Atlantic Ocean is associated with the mixing of waters with very different end members of preformed 14C-age. In the Atlantic, variations in the preformed component over space and time mask the circulation component to an extent that its patterns are not detectable from bulk 14C-age alone. Between models the variability of age can also be considerable (factor of 2), related to the combinations of physical model parameters, which influence circulation dynamics, and gas exchange in the models. The preformed component was found to be very sensitive to gas exchange and moderately sensitive to ice cover. In our model evaluation exercise, the choice of the gas exchange constant from within the current range of uncertainty had such a strong influence on preformed and bulk 14C-age that if model evaluation would be based on bulk 14C-age it could easily impair the evaluation and tuning of a models circulation on global and regional scales. Based on the results of this study, we propose that considering

  17. Global solutions to a chemotaxis model with consumption of chemoattractant

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Liangchen; Mu, Chunlai; Hu, Xuegang

    2016-08-01

    This paper is devoted to the following chemotaxis system u_t=nabla\\cdot(D(u)nabla u)-nabla\\cdot(S(u)nabla v),quad &xin Ω,quad t>0, v_t=Δ v-uv,quad &xinΩ,quad t>0, under homogeneous Neumann boundary conditions in a smooth bounded domain {Ωsubset {R}^n} ({n≥2}), not necessarily being convex. There are some constants {c_D > 0}, {c_S > 0}, {min{R}} and {qin{R}} such that D(u) ≥ c_D(u+1)^{m-1} quad{and} quad S(u)≤ c_S(u+1)^{q-1}quad for all u≥0. If {q < m+n+2/2n}, it is shown that the model possesses a unique global classical solution which is uniformly bounded; if {q < m/2+n+2/2n}, the global existence of solution is established.

  18. Importance of Sea Ice for Validating Global Climate Models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Geiger, Cathleen A.

    1997-01-01

    Reproduction of current day large-scale physical features and processes is a critical test of global climate model performance. Without this benchmark, prognoses of future climate conditions are at best speculation. A fundamental question relevant to this issue is, which processes and observations are both robust and sensitive enough to be used for model validation and furthermore are they also indicators of the problem at hand? In the case of global climate, one of the problems at hand is to distinguish between anthropogenic and naturally occuring climate responses. The polar regions provide an excellent testing ground to examine this problem because few humans make their livelihood there, such that anthropogenic influences in the polar regions usually spawn from global redistribution of a source originating elsewhere. Concomitantly, polar regions are one of the few places where responses to climate are non-anthropogenic. Thus, if an anthropogenic effect has reached the polar regions (e.g. the case of upper atmospheric ozone sensitivity to CFCs), it has most likely had an impact globally but is more difficult to sort out from local effects in areas where anthropogenic activity is high. Within this context, sea ice has served as both a monitoring platform and sensitivity parameter of polar climate response since the time of Fridtjof Nansen. Sea ice resides in the polar regions at the air-sea interface such that changes in either the global atmospheric or oceanic circulation set up complex non-linear responses in sea ice which are uniquely determined. Sea ice currently covers a maximum of about 7% of the earth's surface but was completely absent during the Jurassic Period and far more extensive during the various ice ages. It is also geophysically very thin (typically <10 m in Arctic, <3 m in Antarctic) compared to the troposphere (roughly 10 km) and deep ocean (roughly 3 to 4 km). Because of these unique conditions, polar researchers regard sea ice as one of the

  19. Global dust model intercomparison in AeroCom phase I

    SciTech Connect

    Huneeus, N.; Schulz, M.; Balkanski, Y.; Griesfeller, J.; Prospero, J.; Kinne, S.; Bauer, S.; Boucher, O.; Chin, M.; Dentener, F.; Diehl, T.; Easter, R.; Fillmore, D.; Ghan, S.; Ginoux, P.; Grini, A.; Horowitz, L.; Koch, D.; Krol, M. C.; Landing, W.; Liu, X.; Mahowald, N.; Miller, R.; Morcrette, J. -J.; Myhre, G.; Penner, J.; Perlwitz, J.; Stier, P.; Takemura, T.; Zender, C. S.

    2011-08-01

    This study presents the results of a broad intercomparison of a total of 15 global aerosol models within the AeroCom project. Each model is compared to observations related to desert dust aerosols, their direct radiative effect, and their impact on the biogeochemical cycle, i.e., aerosol optical depth (AOD) and dust deposition. Additional comparisons to Angström exponent (AE), coarse mode AOD and dust surface concentrations are included to extend the assessment of model performance and to identify common biases present in models. These data comprise a benchmark dataset that is proposed for model inspection and future dust model development. There are large differences among the global models that simulate the dust cycle and its impact on climate. In general, models simulate the climatology of vertically integrated parameters (AOD and AE) within a factor of two whereas the total deposition and surface concentration are reproduced within a factor of 10. In addition, smaller mean normalized bias and root mean square errors are obtained for the climatology of AOD and AE than for total deposition and surface concentration. Characteristics of the datasets used and their uncertainties may influence these differences. Large uncertainties still exist with respect to the deposition fluxes in the southern oceans. Further measurements and model studies are necessary to assess the general model performance to reproduce dust deposition in ocean regions sensible to iron contributions. Models overestimate the wet deposition in regions dominated by dry deposition. They generally simulate more realistic surface concentration at stations downwind of the main sources than at remote ones. Most models simulate the gradient in AOD and AE between the different dusty regions. However the seasonality and magnitude of both variables is better simulated at African stations than Middle East ones. The models simulate the offshore transport of West Africa throughout the year but they

  20. Improving distributed hydrologic modeling and global land cover data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Broxton, Patrick

    Distributed models of the land surface are essential for global climate models because of the importance of land-atmosphere exchanges of water, energy, momentum. They are also used for high resolution hydrologic simulation because of the need to capture non-linear responses to spatially variable inputs. Continued improvements to these models, and the data which they use, is especially important given ongoing changes in climate and land cover. In hydrologic models, important aspects are sometimes neglected due to the need to simplify the models for operational simulation. For example, operational flash flood models do not consider the role of snow and are often lumped (i.e. do not discretize a watershed into multiple units, and so do not fully consider the effect of intense, localized rainstorms). To address this deficiency, an overland flow model is coupled with a subsurface flow model to create a distributed flash flood forecasting system that can simulate flash floods that involve rain on snow. The model is intended for operational use, and there are extensive algorithms to incorporate high-resolution hydrometeorologic data, to assist in the calibration of the models, and to run the model in real time. A second study, which is designed to improve snow simulation in forested environments, demonstrates the importance of explicitly representing a near canopy environment in snow models, instead of only representing open and canopy covered areas (i.e. with % canopy fraction), as is often done. Our modeling, which uses canopy structure information from Aerial Laser Survey Mapping at 1 meter resolution, suggests that areas near trees have more net snow water input than surrounding areas because of the lack of snow interception, shading by the trees, and the effects of wind. In addition, the greatest discrepancy between our model simulations that explicitly represent forest structure and those that do not occur in areas with more canopy edges. In addition, two value

  1. Ionospheric potential variability in global electric circuit models (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mareev, E.; Volodin, E. M.; Kalinin, A.; Sllyunyaev, N.

    2013-12-01

    The ionospheric potential (IP) represents the electric voltage between the Earth's surface and the lower ionosphere and may be measured with a sufficient accuracy using the balloon soundings over the lowest 15-20 km. This parameter can serve as a global index relating the state of the global electric circuit (GEC) to the planetary climate. Exploring the GEC as a diagnostic tool for climate studies requires an accurate modeling of the IP stationary state and its dynamics, while a question of secular trend of the IP is still under discussion (Markson, 2007; Williams, 2009; Williams and Mareev, 2013). This paper addresses a possibility of correct calculation of the IP in 3D models of the GEC and its adequate parameterization to be used in General Circulation Models (GCM). Our approach is based on the use the integral representation for the contribution of charging currents, supporting the generators (in particular, electrified clouds) in the GEC, into the ionospheric potential (Kalinin et al., 2011; Mareeva et al., 2011). Simple enough analytical expressions for IP induced by the charging electric currents are suggested, including the contribution of the Austausch generator. We have developed also the spherical numerical model of the GEC and applied it for IP calculation for different-type cloud contribution into the circuit. A suggested IP parameterization is appropriate for the use in climate-model simulations (Mareev and Volodin, 2011). We use a high-resolution GCM of the atmosphere and ocean INMCM4.0 for the modeling the GEC. The main characteristics of the model are: atmosphere - 2x1.5 degrees in longitude and latitude, 21 levels; ocean - 1x0.5 degrees in longitude and latitude, 40 levels. We have taken into account quasi-stationary currents of electrified clouds as principal contributors into the DC global circuit. One of the most important aspects of this approach is an account for all the electrified clouds- both thunderstorms and electrified shower cloud. The

  2. Globally nilpotent differential operators and the square Ising model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bostan, A.; Boukraa, S.; Hassani, S.; Maillard, J.-M.; Weil, J.-A.; Zenine, N.

    2009-03-01

    We recall various multiple integrals with one parameter, related to the isotropic square Ising model, and corresponding, respectively, to the n-particle contributions of the magnetic susceptibility, to the (lattice) form factors, to the two-point correlation functions and to their λ-extensions. The univariate analytic functions defined by these integrals are holonomic and even G-functions: they satisfy Fuchsian linear differential equations with polynomial coefficients and have some arithmetic properties. We recall the explicit forms, found in previous work, of these Fuchsian equations, as well as their Russian-doll and direct sum structures. These differential operators are selected Fuchsian linear differential operators, and their remarkable properties have a deep geometrical origin: they are all globally nilpotent, or, sometimes, even have zero p-curvature. We also display miscellaneous examples of globally nilpotent operators emerging from enumerative combinatorics problems for which no integral representation is yet known. Focusing on the factorized parts of all these operators, we find out that the global nilpotence of the factors (resp. p-curvature nullity) corresponds to a set of selected structures of algebraic geometry: elliptic curves, modular curves, curves of genus five, six,..., and even a remarkable weight-1 modular form emerging in the three-particle contribution χ(3) of the magnetic susceptibility of the square Ising model. Noticeably, this associated weight-1 modular form is also seen in the factors of the differential operator for another n-fold integral of the Ising class, Φ(3)H, for the staircase polygons counting, and in Apéry's study of ζ(3). G-functions naturally occur as solutions of globally nilpotent operators. In the case where we do not have G-functions, but Hamburger functions (one irregular singularity at 0 or ∞) that correspond to the confluence of singularities in the scaling limit, the p-curvature is also found to verify new

  3. Global Observations - The Key to Model Development and Improved Assessments

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Douglass, Anne R.

    2007-01-01

    One application of global models is to predict the response of stratospheric ozone to changes in composition and climate. The recent international ozone assessment included results from three-dimensional models with interactions among the dynamical, photochemical and radiative processes that all influence ozone behavior. The physical basis of such models is far more realistic than that of either the one-dimensional (single profile) models of the 1970's and early 1980's or the two-dimensional (latitude height) models of the late 1980's and 1990's. Observations have played a key role in the model development at all stages. This talk will highlight the role of observations in inspiring broad model improvements that have grown from the effort to reproduce observed relationships or processes, for example the correlations between long-lived constituents seen in aircraft data and the deep unmixed descent of mesospheric air into the winter polar vortices seen from satellite. The talk will also trace the evolution of model evaluation from contour plots showing 'good agreement' to the more rigorous process-oriented evaluation of three-dimensional models that is becoming the norm using the wealth of space-based observations obtained from the late 1970's until present.

  4. A global scale mechanistic model of the photosynthetic capacity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, C.; Ali, A. A.; Fisher, R.; Wullschleger, S. D.; Rogers, A.; McDowell, N. G.; Wilson, C. J.

    2015-12-01

    Although plant photosynthetic capacity as determined by the maximum carboxylation rate (i.e., Vc,max25) and the maximum electron transport rate (i.e., Jmax25) at a reference temperature (generally 25oC) is known to vary substantially in space and time in response to environmental conditions, it is typically parameterized in Earth system models (ESMs) with tabulated values associated to plant functional types. In this study, we developed a mechanistic model of leaf utilization of nitrogen for assimilation (LUNA V1.0) to predict the photosynthetic capacity at the global scale under different environmental conditions, based on the optimization of nitrogen allocated among light capture, electron transport, carboxylation, and respiration. The LUNA model was able to reasonably well capture the observed patterns of photosynthetic capacity in view that it explained approximately 55% of the variation in observed Vc,max25 and 65% of the variation in observed Jmax25 across the globe. Our model simulations under current and future climate conditions indicated that Vc,max25 could be most affected in high-latitude regions under a warming climate and that ESMs using a fixed Vc,max25 or Jmax25 by plant functional types were likely to substantially overestimate future global photosynthesis.

  5. Local and global uncertainty analyses of a methane flame model.

    PubMed

    Zádor, Judit; Zsély, István Gy; Turányi, Tamás; Ratto, Marco; Tarantola, Stefano; Saltelli, Andrea

    2005-11-01

    Local and global uncertainty analyses of a flat, premixed, stationary, laminar methane flame model were carried out using the Leeds methane oxidation mechanism at lean (phi = 0.70), stoichiometric (phi = 1.00), and rich (phi = 1.20) equivalence ratios. Uncertainties of laminar flame velocity, maximal flame temperature, and maximal concentrations of radicals H, O, OH, CH, and CH(2) were investigated. Global uncertainty analysis methods included the Morris method, the Monte Carlo analysis with Latin hypercube sampling, and an improved version of the Sobol' method. Assumed probability density functions (pdf's) were assigned to the rate coefficients of all the 175 reactions and to the enthalpies of formation of the 37 species. The analyses provided the following answers: approximate pdf's and standard deviations of the model results, minimum and maximum values of the results at any physically realistic parameter combination, and the contribution of the uncertainty of each parameter to the uncertainty of the model result. The uncertainty of a few rate parameters and a few enthalpies of formation causes most of the uncertainty of the model results. Most uncertainty comes from the inappropriate knowledge of kinetic data, but the uncertainty caused by thermodynamic data is also significant. PMID:16833293

  6. 14C-age tracers in global ocean circulation models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koeve, W.; Wagner, H.; Kähler, P.; Oschlies, A.

    2015-07-01

    The natural abundance of 14C in total CO2 dissolved in seawater (DIC) is a property applied to evaluate the water age structure and circulation in the ocean and in ocean models. In this study we use three different representations of the global ocean circulation augmented with a suite of idealised tracers to study the potential and limitations of using natural 14C to determine water age, which is the time elapsed since a body of water has been in contact with the atmosphere. We find that, globally, bulk 14C-age is dominated by two equally important components, one associated with ageing, i.e. the time component of circulation, and one associated with a "preformed 14C-age". The latter quantity exists because of the slow and incomplete atmosphere-ocean equilibration of 14C particularly in high latitudes where many water masses form. In the ocean's interior, preformed 14C-age behaves like a passive tracer. The relative contribution of the preformed component to bulk 14C-age varies regionally within a given model, but also between models. Regional variability in the Atlantic Ocean is associated with the mixing of waters with very different end members of preformed 14C-age. Here, variations in the preformed component over space and time mask the circulation component to an extent that its patterns are not detectable from bulk 14C-age. Between models, the variability of preformed 14C-age can also be considerable (factor of 2), related to the combination of physical model parameters, which influence circulation dynamics or gas exchange. The preformed component was found to be very sensitive to gas exchange and moderately sensitive to ice cover. In our model evaluation, the choice of the gas-exchange constant from within the currently accepted range of uncertainty had such a strong influence on preformed and bulk 14C-age that if model evaluation would be based on bulk 14C-age, it could easily impair the evaluation and tuning of a model's circulation on global and regional

  7. Testing of global pressure/temperature (GPT) model and global mapping function (GMF) in GPS analyses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kouba, J.

    2009-03-01

    Several sources of a priori meteorological data have been compared for their effects on geodetic results from GPS precise point positioning (PPP). The new global pressure and temperature model (GPT), available at the IERS Conventions web site, provides pressure values that have been used to compute a priori hydrostatic (dry) zenith path delay z h estimates. Both the GPT-derived and a simple height-dependent a priori constant z h performed well for low- and mid-latitude stations. However, due to the actual variations not accounted for by the seasonal GPT model pressure values or the a priori constant z h, GPS height solution errors can sometimes exceed 10 mm, particularly in Polar Regions or with elevation cutoff angles less than 10 degrees. Such height errors are nearly perfectly correlated with local pressure variations so that for most stations they partly (and for solutions with 5-degree elevation angle cutoff almost fully) compensate for the atmospheric loading displacements. Consequently, unlike PPP solutions utilizing a numerical weather model (NWM) or locally measured pressure data for a priori z h, the GPT-based PPP height repeatabilities are better for most stations before rather than after correcting for atmospheric loading. At 5 of the 11 studied stations, for which measured local meteorological data were available, the PPP height errors caused by a priori z h interpolated from gridded Vienna Mapping Function-1 (VMF1) data (from a NWM) were less than 0.5 mm. Height errors due to the global mapping function (GMF) are even larger than those caused by the GPT a priori pressure errors. The GMF height errors are mainly due to the hydrostatic mapping and for the solutions with 10-degree elevation cutoff they are about 50% larger than the GPT a priori errors.

  8. The NASA MSFC Earth Global Reference Atmospheric Model-2007 Version

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Leslie, F.W.; Justus, C.G.

    2008-01-01

    Reference or standard atmospheric models have long been used for design and mission planning of various aerospace systems. The NASA/Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) Global Reference Atmospheric Model (GRAM) was developed in response to the need for a design reference atmosphere that provides complete global geographical variability, and complete altitude coverage (surface to orbital altitudes) as well as complete seasonal and monthly variability of the thermodynamic variables and wind components. A unique feature of GRAM is that, addition to providing the geographical, height, and monthly variation of the mean atmospheric state, it includes the ability to simulate spatial and temporal perturbations in these atmospheric parameters (e.g. fluctuations due to turbulence and other atmospheric perturbation phenomena). A summary comparing GRAM features to characteristics and features of other reference or standard atmospheric models, can be found Guide to Reference and Standard Atmosphere Models. The original GRAM has undergone a series of improvements over the years with recent additions and changes. The software program is called Earth-GRAM2007 to distinguish it from similar programs for other bodies (e.g. Mars, Venus, Neptune, and Titan). However, in order to make this Technical Memorandum (TM) more readable, the software will be referred to simply as GRAM07 or GRAM unless additional clarity is needed. Section 1 provides an overview of the basic features of GRAM07 including the newly added features. Section 2 provides a more detailed description of GRAM07 and how the model output generated. Section 3 presents sample results. Appendices A and B describe the Global Upper Air Climatic Atlas (GUACA) data and the Global Gridded Air Statistics (GGUAS) database. Appendix C provides instructions for compiling and running GRAM07. Appendix D gives a description of the required NAMELIST format input. Appendix E gives sample output. Appendix F provides a list of available

  9. Evaluation of Black Carbon Estimations in Global Aerosol Models

    SciTech Connect

    Koch, D.; Schulz, M.; Kinne, Stefan; McNaughton, C. S.; Spackman, J. R.; Balkanski, Y.; Bauer, S.; Berntsen, T.; Bond, Tami C.; Boucher, Olivier; Chin, M.; Clarke, A. D.; De Luca, N.; Dentener, F.; Diehl, T.; Dubovik, O.; Easter, Richard C.; Fahey, D. W.; Feichter, J.; Fillmore, D.; Freitag, S.; Ghan, Steven J.; Ginoux, P.; Gong, S.; Horowitz, L.; Iversen, T.; Kirkevag, A.; Klimont, Z.; Kondo, Yutaka; Krol, M.; Liu, Xiaohong; Miller, R.; Montanaro, V.; Moteki, N.; Myhre, G.; Penner, J.; Perlwitz, Ja; Pitari, G.; Reddy, S.; Sahu, L.; Sakamoto, H.; Schuster, G.; Schwarz, J. P.; Seland, O.; Stier, P.; Takegawa, Nobuyuki; Takemura, T.; Textor, C.; van Aardenne, John; Zhao, Y.

    2009-11-27

    range represented by the full set of AeroCom models. Upper tropospheric concentrations of BC mass from the aircraft measurements are suggested to provide a unique new benchmark to test scavenging and vertical dispersion of BC in global models.

  10. Global middle Pliocene biome reconstruction: A data/model synthesis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haywood, Alan M.; Valdes, Paul J.; Francis, Jane E.; Sellwood, Bruce W.

    2002-12-01

    The middle Pliocene warm interval (ca. 3 Ma BP) has been extensively studied. However, our knowledge concerning the global distribution of middle Pliocene biomes remains far from complete. This paper presents the results from a "first attempt" at simulating the distribution of different mid-Pliocene biomes using an advanced numerical general circulation climate model (Hadley Centre Atmospheric Model Version 3) and the BIOME 4 vegetation model. The modeling indicates that during the middle Pliocene the geographical coverage of tundra type biomes may have been significantly reduced compared with the present day in the Northern Hemisphere. High-latitude forests expand in the place of tundra forms of vegetation. Total area covered by forest increases for the Pliocene case compared with the present day. Arid deserts become less prevalent in the Pliocene scenario and are replaced by tropical xerophytic shrublands and savanna-type vegetation. These results compare favorably with geological data in general and with the U.S. Geological Survey's PRISM2 middle Pliocene vegetation reconstruction, although data/model inconsistencies are apparent. Although some of these inconsistencies relate to the weaknesses of the climate and biome model employed, others identify deficiencies in the extant geological data set or the interpretation of this data. This modeled biome reconstruction will serve as a useful vehicle for aiding in future comparisons between geological data on middle Pliocene biomes and model predictions.

  11. Advancement of Global-scale River Hydrodynamics Modelling and Its Potential Applications to Earth System Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamazaki, D.

    2015-12-01

    Global river routine models have been developed for representing freshwater discharge from land to ocean in Earth System Models. At the beginning, global river models had simulated river discharge along a prescribed river network map by using a linear-reservoir assumption. Recently, in parallel with advancement of remote sensing and computational powers, many advanced global river models have started to represent floodplain inundation assuming sub-grid floodplain topography. Some of them further pursue physically-appropriate representation of river and floodplain dynamics, and succeeded to utilize "hydrodynamic flow equations" to realistically simulate channel/floodplain and upstream/downstream interactions. State-of-the-art global river hydrodynamic models can well reproduce flood stage (e.g. inundated areas and water levels) in addition to river discharge. Flood stage simulation by global river models can be potentially coupled with land surface processes in Earth System Models. For example, evaporation from inundated water area is not negligible for land-atmosphere interactions in arid areas (such as the Niger River). Surface water level and ground water level are correlated each other in flat topography, and this interaction could dominate wetting and drying of many small lakes in flatland and could also affect biogeochemical processes in these lakes. These land/surface water interactions had not been implemented in Earth System Models but they have potential impact on the global climate and carbon cycle. In the AGU presentation, recent advancements of global river hydrodynamic modelling, including super-high resolution river topography datasets, will be introduces. The potential applications of river and surface water modules within Earth System Models will be also discussed.

  12. Global dynamics of delay recruitment models with maximized lifespan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    El-Morshedy, Hassan A.; Röst, Gergely; Ruiz-Herrera, Alfonso

    2016-06-01

    We study the dynamics of the differential equation u'(t)=-γ u(t)+ b f(u(t-τ))- c f(u(t-σ)) with two delayed terms, representing a positive and a negative feedback. We prove delay-dependent and absolute global stability results for the trivial and for the positive equilibrium. Our theorems provide new mathematical results as well as novel insights for several biological systems, including three-stage populations, neural models with inhibitory and excitatory loops, and the blood platelet model of Bélair and Mackey. We show that, somewhat surprisingly, the introduction of a removal term with fixed delay in population models simplifies the dynamics of the equation.

  13. Poynting Flux-Conserving Boundary Conditions for Global MHD Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xi, S.; Lotko, W.; Zhang, B.; Brambles, O.; Lyon, J.; Merkin, V. G.; Wiltberger, M. J.

    2014-12-01

    Poynting Flux-conserving boundary conditions that conserve low-frequency, magnetic field-aligned, electromagnetic energy flux across the low-altitude (or inner) boundary in global magnetospheric magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) models is presented. This method involves the mapping of both the potential from the ionosphere and the perpendicular magnetic field from the inner magnetosphere to the ghost cells of the computational domain. The single fluid Lyon-Fedder-Mobarry (LFM) model is used to verify this method. The comparisons of simulations using the standard hardwall boundary conditions of the LFM model and the flux-conserving boundary conditions show that the method reported here improves the transparency of the boundary for the flow of low-frequency (essentially DC) electromagnetic energy flux along field lines. As a consequence, the field-aligned DC Poynting flux just above the boundary is very nearly equal to the ionospheric Joule heating, as it should be if electromagnetic energy is conserved.

  14. HIBAYES: Global 21-cm Bayesian Monte-Carlo Model Fitting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zwart, Jonathan T. L.; Price, Daniel; Bernardi, Gianni

    2016-06-01

    HIBAYES implements fully-Bayesian extraction of the sky-averaged (global) 21-cm signal from the Cosmic Dawn and Epoch of Reionization in the presence of foreground emission. User-defined likelihood and prior functions are called by the sampler PyMultiNest (ascl:1606.005) in order to jointly explore the full (signal plus foreground) posterior probability distribution and evaluate the Bayesian evidence for a given model. Implemented models, for simulation and fitting, include gaussians (HI signal) and polynomials (foregrounds). Some simple plotting and analysis tools are supplied. The code can be extended to other models (physical or empirical), to incorporate data from other experiments, or to use alternative Monte-Carlo sampling engines as required.

  15. Area-based approach improves global sediment discharge modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schultz, Colin

    2012-07-01

    By approaching the challenge of calculating global sediment discharge rates from a new angle, Pelletier developed a model that outperforms many existing simulations while minimizing the number of free parameters. Knowing how sediment is transported by the world's rivers is a key factor in understanding how landscapes change over time, with important consequences for agricultural viability, ecological health, and soil properties. Traditionally, the majority of discharge models calculate sediment redistribution at the watershed or drainage basin scale, using watershed average values of the physical properties known to affect sediment transport. The author's model, on the other hand, partitions the planet into sections that are 5 arc minutes wide—roughly 10 kilometers across at the equator and smaller at higher latitudes. This decision to use an area-based grid rather than drainage basin averages allows for an improved representation of small-scale processes that are often washed out at the watershed scale.

  16. Toward Submesocale Ocean Modelling and Observations for Global Ocean Forecast.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Drillet, Y.

    2014-12-01

    Mercator Ocean is the French oceanographic operational center involved in the development an operation of global high resolution ocean forecasting systems; it is part of the European Copernicus Marine service initiated during MyOcean project. Mercator Ocean currently delivers daily 1/12° global ocean forecast based on the NEMO model which allows for a good representation of mesoscale structures in main areas of the global ocean. Data assimilation of altimetry provides a precise initialization of the mesoscale structures while in situ observations, mainly based on the ARGO network, and satellite Sea Surface Temperature constrain water mass properties from the surface to intermediate depths. One of the main improvements scheduled in the coming years is the transitioning towards submesoscale permitting horizontal resolution (1/36°). On the basis of numerical simulations in selected areas and standard diagnostics developed to validate operational systems, we will discuss : i) The impact of the resolution increase at the basin scale. ii) Adequacy of numerical schemes, vertical resolution and physical parameterization. iii) Adequacy of currently implemented data assimilation procedures in particular with respect to new high resolution data set such as SWOT.

  17. Adaptable Information Models in the Global Change Information System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duggan, B.; Buddenberg, A.; Aulenbach, S.; Wolfe, R.; Goldstein, J.

    2014-12-01

    The US Global Change Research Program has sponsored the creation of the Global Change Information System () to provide a web based source of accessible, usable, and timely information about climate and global change for use by scientists, decision makers, and the public. The GCIS played multiple roles during the assembly and release of the Third National Climate Assessment. It provided human and programmable interfaces, relational and semantic representations of information, and discrete identifiers for various types of resources, which could then be manipulated by a distributed team with a wide range of specialties. The GCIS also served as a scalable backend for the web based version of the report. In this talk, we discuss the infrastructure decisions made during the design and deployment of the GCIS, as well as ongoing work to adapt to new types of information. Both a constrained relational database and an open ended triple store are used to ensure data integrity while maintaining fluidity. Using natural primary keys allows identifiers to propagate through both models. Changing identifiers are accomodated through fine grained auditing and explicit mappings to external lexicons. A practical RESTful API is used whose endpoints are also URIs in an ontology. Both the relational schema and the ontology are maleable, and stability is ensured through test driven development and continuous integration testing using modern open source techniques. Content is also validated through continuous testing techniques. A high degres of scalability is achieved through caching.

  18. eWaterCycle: A global operational hydrological forecasting model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van de Giesen, Nick; Bierkens, Marc; Donchyts, Gennadii; Drost, Niels; Hut, Rolf; Sutanudjaja, Edwin

    2015-04-01

    Development of an operational hyper-resolution hydrological global model is a central goal of the eWaterCycle project (www.ewatercycle.org). This operational model includes ensemble forecasts (14 days) to predict water related stress around the globe. Assimilation of near-real time satellite data is part of the intended product that will be launched at EGU 2015. The challenges come from several directions. First, there are challenges that are mainly computer science oriented but have direct practical hydrological implications. For example, we aim to make use as much as possible of existing standards and open-source software. For example, different parts of our system are coupled through the Basic Model Interface (BMI) developed in the framework of the Community Surface Dynamics Modeling System (CSDMS). The PCR-GLOBWB model, built by Utrecht University, is the basic hydrological model that is the engine of the eWaterCycle project. Re-engineering of parts of the software was needed for it to run efficiently in a High Performance Computing (HPC) environment, and to be able to interface using BMI, and run on multiple compute nodes in parallel. The final aim is to have a spatial resolution of 1km x 1km, which is currently 10 x 10km. This high resolution is computationally not too demanding but very memory intensive. The memory bottleneck becomes especially apparent for data assimilation, for which we use OpenDA. OpenDa allows for different data assimilation techniques without the need to build these from scratch. We have developed a BMI adaptor for OpenDA, allowing OpenDA to use any BMI compatible model. To circumvent memory shortages which would result from standard applications of the Ensemble Kalman Filter, we have developed a variant that does not need to keep all ensemble members in working memory. At EGU, we will present this variant and how it fits well in HPC environments. An important step in the eWaterCycle project was the coupling between the hydrological and

  19. Modelling of the Global Geopotential Energy & Stress Field

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schiffer, C.; Nielsen, S. B.

    2012-04-01

    Lateral density and topography variations yield in and important contribution to the lithospheric stress field. The leading quantity is the Geopotential Energy, the integrated lithostatic pressure in a rock column. The horizontal gradient of this quantity is related to horizontal stresses through the Equations of equilibrium of stresses. The Geopotential Energy furthermore can be linearly related to the Geoid under assumption of local isostasy. Satellite Geoid measurements contain, however, also non-isostatic deeper mantle responses of long wavelength. Unfortunately, high-pass filtering of the Geoid does not suppress only the deeper sources. The age-dependent signal of the oceanic lithosphere, for instance, is of long wave length and a prominent representative of in-plane stress, derived from the horizontal gradient of isostatic Geoid anomalies and responsible for the ridge push effect. Therefore a global lithospheric density model is required in order to isolate the shallow Geoid signal and calculate the stress pattern from isostatically compensated lithospheric sources. We use a linearized inverse method to fit a lithospheric reference model to observations such as topography and surface heat flow in the presence of local isostasy and a steady state geotherm. Subsequently we use a FEM code to solve the Equations of equilibrium of stresses for a three dimensional elastic shell. The modelled results are shown and compared with the global stress field and other publications.

  20. Additions to Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (MARS-GRAM)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Justus, C. G.; James, Bonnie

    1992-01-01

    Three major additions or modifications were made to the Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM): (1) in addition to the interactive version, a new batch version is available, which uses NAMELIST input, and is completely modular, so that the main driver program can easily be replaced by any calling program, such as a trajectory simulation program; (2) both the interactive and batch versions now have an option for treating local-scale dust storm effects, rather than just the global-scale dust storms in the original Mars-GRAM; and (3) the Zurek wave perturbation model was added, to simulate the effects of tidal perturbations, in addition to the random (mountain wave) perturbation model of the original Mars-GRAM. A minor modification was also made which allows heights to go 'below' local terrain height and return 'realistic' pressure, density, and temperature, and not the surface values, as returned by the original Mars-GRAM. This feature will allow simulations of Mars rover paths which might go into local 'valley' areas which lie below the average height of the present, rather coarse-resolution, terrain height data used by Mars-GRAM. Sample input and output of both the interactive and batch versions of Mars-GRAM are presented.

  1. Additions to Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Justus, C. G.

    1991-01-01

    Three major additions or modifications were made to the Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM): (1) in addition to the interactive version, a new batch version is available, which uses NAMELIST input, and is completely modular, so that the main driver program can easily be replaced by any calling program, such as a trajectory simulation program; (2) both the interactive and batch versions now have an option for treating local-scale dust storm effects, rather than just the global-scale dust storms in the original Mars-GRAM; and (3) the Zurek wave perturbation model was added, to simulate the effects of tidal perturbations, in addition to the random (mountain wave) perturbation model of the original Mars-GRAM. A minor modification has also been made which allows heights to go below local terrain height and return realistic pressure, density, and temperature (not the surface values) as returned by the original Mars-GRAM. This feature will allow simulations of Mars rover paths which might go into local valley areas which lie below the average height of the present, rather coarse-resolution, terrain height data used by Mars-GRAM. Sample input and output of both the interactive and batch version of Mars-GRAM are presented.

  2. Global ridge orientation modeling for partial fingerprint identification.

    PubMed

    Wang, Yi Alice; Hu, Jiankun

    2011-01-01

    Identifying incomplete or partial fingerprints from a large fingerprint database remains a difficult challenge today. Existing studies on partial fingerprints focus on one-to-one matching using local ridge details. In this paper, we investigate the problem of retrieving candidate lists for matching partial fingerprints by exploiting global topological features. Specifically, we propose an analytical approach for reconstructing the global topology representation from a partial fingerprint. First, we present an inverse orientation model for describing the reconstruction problem. Then, we provide a general expression for all valid solutions to the inverse model. This allows us to preserve data fidelity in the existing segments while exploring missing structures in the unknown parts. We have further developed algorithms for estimating the missing orientation structures based on some a priori knowledge of ridge topology features. Our statistical experiments show that our proposed model-based approach can effectively reduce the number of candidates for pair-wised fingerprint matching, and thus significantly improve the system retrieval performance for partial fingerprint identification.

  3. Global Sensitivity Analysis of Environmental Models: Convergence, Robustness and Validation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sarrazin, Fanny; Pianosi, Francesca; Khorashadi Zadeh, Farkhondeh; Van Griensven, Ann; Wagener, Thorsten

    2015-04-01

    Global Sensitivity Analysis aims to characterize the impact that variations in model input factors (e.g. the parameters) have on the model output (e.g. simulated streamflow). In sampling-based Global Sensitivity Analysis, the sample size has to be chosen carefully in order to obtain reliable sensitivity estimates while spending computational resources efficiently. Furthermore, insensitive parameters are typically identified through the definition of a screening threshold: the theoretical value of their sensitivity index is zero but in a sampling-base framework they regularly take non-zero values. There is little guidance available for these two steps in environmental modelling though. The objective of the present study is to support modellers in making appropriate choices, regarding both sample size and screening threshold, so that a robust sensitivity analysis can be implemented. We performed sensitivity analysis for the parameters of three hydrological models with increasing level of complexity (Hymod, HBV and SWAT), and tested three widely used sensitivity analysis methods (Elementary Effect Test or method of Morris, Regional Sensitivity Analysis, and Variance-Based Sensitivity Analysis). We defined criteria based on a bootstrap approach to assess three different types of convergence: the convergence of the value of the sensitivity indices, of the ranking (the ordering among the parameters) and of the screening (the identification of the insensitive parameters). We investigated the screening threshold through the definition of a validation procedure. The results showed that full convergence of the value of the sensitivity indices is not necessarily needed to rank or to screen the model input factors. Furthermore, typical values of the sample sizes that are reported in the literature can be well below the sample sizes that actually ensure convergence of ranking and screening.

  4. Global Analysis, Interpretation, and Modelling: First Science Conference

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sahagian, Dork

    1995-01-01

    Topics considered include: Biomass of termites and their emissions of methane and carbon dioxide - A global database; Carbon isotope discrimination during photosynthesis and the isotope ratio of respired CO2 in boreal forest ecosystems; Estimation of methane emission from rice paddies in mainland China; Climate and nitrogen controls on the geography and timescales of terrestrial biogeochemical cycling; Potential role of vegetation feedback in the climate sensitivity of high-latitude regions - A case study at 6000 years B.P.; Interannual variation of carbon exchange fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems; and Variations in modeled atmospheric transport of carbon dioxide and the consequences for CO2 inversions.

  5. Status and Plan of Global NWP Model at Kiaps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hong, S. Y.

    2014-12-01

    Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems (KIAPS), Seoul, Korea, has embarked a national project in developing a new global forecast system from 2011 to 2019. The ultimate goal of this project is to replace the current operational model at Korea Meteorological Administration (KMS), which has been adopted from the United Kingdom's Meteorological Office's model. As of July 2014, the initial version of the model system that consists of a spectral element dynamical core on a cubed sphere and a standard physics package from existing models such as the GRIMs, WRF, and GFS. This system is scheduled to be run daily at the later 2014, with a standard data assimilation of 3-D Var. The target resolution in 2020 is a 10-km grid. The advanced model system, which is scheduled to be tested around 2016, includes dynamical core, physical parameterizations, and data assimilation. The GRIMs and WRF models are used as tools in developing/revising advanced physics schemes, in addition to the usage of reference models. The data assimilation is to adapt the ensemble Kalman filer technology, along with the variational method. A more accurate and efficient dynamical core could be tested out.

  6. An overview of the KIAPS global model development

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hong, Song-You; Hwang, Seung-On; Kwon, Young-Cheol

    2015-04-01

    Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems (KIAPS), Seoul, Korea, has embarked a national project in developing a new global forecast system in 2011. The ultimate goal of this 9-year project is to replace the current operational model at Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), which has been adopted from the United Kingdom's Meteorological Office's model. As of January 2015, the initial version of the KIAPS Integrated Model (KIM) system that consists of a spectral element dynamical core on a cubed sphere and a standard physics package from existing models such as the GRIMs, WRF, and GFS, was prepared. This system is scheduled to be tested in 2015, along with a standard data assimilation of 3-D Var. The target resolution in 2020 is a 10-km grid. The advanced model system, which is scheduled to be tested around 2016, includes advanced or newly developed components in dynamical core, physical parameterizations, and data assimilation. The GRIMs and WRF models are used as tools in developing/revising advanced physics schemes, in addition to the usage of reference models. The data assimilation is to adapt the ensemble Kalman filer technology, along with the variational method.

  7. eWaterCycle: A high resolution global hydrological model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van de Giesen, Nick; Bierkens, Marc; Drost, Niels; Hut, Rolf; Sutanudjaja, Edwin

    2014-05-01

    In 2013, the eWaterCycle project was started, which has the ambitious goal to run a high resolution global hydrological model. Starting point was the PCR-GLOBWB built by Utrecht University. The software behind this model will partially be re-engineered in order to enable to run it in a High Performance Computing (HPC) environment. The aim is to have a spatial resolution of 1km x 1km. The idea is also to run the model in real-time and forecasting mode, using data assimilation. An on-demand hydraulic model will be available for detailed flow and flood forecasting in support of navigation and disaster management. The project faces a set of scientific challenges. First, to enable the model to run in a HPC environment, model runs were analyzed to examine on which parts of the program most CPU time was spent. These parts were re-coded in Open MPI to allow for parallel processing. Different parallelization strategies are thinkable. In our case, it was decided to use watershed logic as a first step to distribute the analysis. There is rather limited recent experience with HPC in hydrology and there is much to be learned and adjusted, both on the hydrological modeling side and the computer science side. For example, an interesting early observation was that hydrological models are, due to their localized parameterization, much more memory intensive than models of sister-disciplines such as meteorology and oceanography. Because it would be deadly to have to swap information between CPU and hard drive, memory management becomes crucial. A standard Ensemble Kalman Filter (enKF) would, for example, have excessive memory demands. To circumvent these problems, an alternative to the enKF was developed that produces equivalent results. This presentation shows the most recent results from the model, including a 5km x 5km simulation and a proof of concept for the new data assimilation approach. Finally, some early ideas about financial sustainability of an operational global

  8. HPC Aspects of Variable-Resolution Global Climate Modeling using a Multi-scale Convection Parameterization

    EPA Science Inventory

    High performance computing (HPC) requirements for the new generation variable grid resolution (VGR) global climate models differ from that of traditional global models. A VGR global model with 15 km grids over the CONUS stretching to 60 km grids elsewhere will have about ~2.5 tim...

  9. Global Models for the National Research University: Adoption and Adaptation in Indonesia and Malaysia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Beerkens, Eric

    2010-01-01

    This paper analyses the way in which global university models are adopted in research universities in Indonesia and Malaysia. It first provides the global context in which these models have evolved and the processes through which they spread. How these global models interact with local policies and institutions is the topic of the empirical part…

  10. The Global Earthquake Model and Disaster Risk Reduction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smolka, A. J.

    2015-12-01

    Advanced, reliable and transparent tools and data to assess earthquake risk are inaccessible to most, especially in less developed regions of the world while few, if any, globally accepted standards currently allow a meaningful comparison of risk between places. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a collaborative effort that aims to provide models, datasets and state-of-the-art tools for transparent assessment of earthquake hazard and risk. As part of this goal, GEM and its global network of collaborators have developed the OpenQuake engine (an open-source software for hazard and risk calculations), the OpenQuake platform (a web-based portal making GEM's resources and datasets freely available to all potential users), and a suite of tools to support modelers and other experts in the development of hazard, exposure and vulnerability models. These resources are being used extensively across the world in hazard and risk assessment, from individual practitioners to local and national institutions, and in regional projects to inform disaster risk reduction. Practical examples for how GEM is bridging the gap between science and disaster risk reduction are: - Several countries including Switzerland, Turkey, Italy, Ecuador, Papua-New Guinea and Taiwan (with more to follow) are computing national seismic hazard using the OpenQuake-engine. In some cases these results are used for the definition of actions in building codes. - Technical support, tools and data for the development of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk models for regional projects in South America and Sub-Saharan Africa. - Going beyond physical risk, GEM's scorecard approach evaluates local resilience by bringing together neighborhood/community leaders and the risk reduction community as a basis for designing risk reduction programs at various levels of geography. Actual case studies are Lalitpur in the Kathmandu Valley in Nepal and Quito/Ecuador. In agreement with GEM's collaborative approach, all

  11. Global gravimetric geoid model based a new method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shen, W. B.; Han, J. C.

    2012-04-01

    The geoid, defined as the equipotential surface nearest to the mean sea level, plays a key role in physical geodesy and unification of height datum system. In this study, we introduce a new method, which is quite different from the conventional geoid modeling methods (e.g., Stokes method, Molodensky method), to determine the global gravimetric geoid (GGG). Based on the new method, using the dada base of the external Earth gravity field model EGM2008, digital topographic model DTM2006.0 and crust density distribution model CRUST2.0, we first determined the inner geopotential field until to the depth of D, and then established a GGG model , the accuracy of which is evaluated by comparing with the observations from USA, AUS, some parts of Canada, and some parts of China. The main idea of the new method is stated as follows. Given the geopotential field (e.g. EGM2008) outside the Earth, we may determine the inner geopotential field until to the depth of D by using Newtonian integral, once the density distribution model (e.g. CRUST2.0) of a shallow layer until to the depth D is given. Then, based on the definition of the geoid (i.e. an equipotential surface nearest to the mean sea level) one may determine the GGG. This study is supported by Natural Science Foundation China (grant No.40974015; No.41174011; No.41021061; No.41128003).

  12. A global magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling model of substorms

    SciTech Connect

    Kan, J.R.

    1993-10-01

    A global model of substorms is proposed on the basis of observational synthesis and theoretical modeling. Since the theoretical basis of the present model is the magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling (MIC) process, it will be called the MIC model of substorms. Substorms can occur in the MIC model without a new X line formed in the near-Earth plasma sheet, in contrast to the highly popular near-Earth neutral line (NENL) model of substorms. Following enhanced dayside reconnection, the ionosphere overloads both the solar wind on open field lines and the plasma sheet on closed field lines. The solar wind responds to the overload by providing more driven energy from the dynamo action on open field lines. The plasma sheet responds to the overload by collapsing itself, i.e., dipolarizing its field configuration to form the substorm current wedge. The explosive intensification during the expansion phase is powered by releasing the magnetic energy stored on closed field lines in the plasma sheet. The stored energy is released by the unloading instability driven by a positive feedback in the substorm current wedge. 68 refs., 6 figs., 1 tab.

  13. Modeling of trace constituent transport with the University of Wisconsin global isentropic-sigma model

    SciTech Connect

    Zapotocny, T.H.; Johnson, D.R.; Reames, F.M.

    1994-06-01

    The main goal of this report is to demonstrate the ability of the University of Wisconsin (UW) hybrid isentropic-sigma ({theta}-{sigma}) model for global NWP, especially the global distribution of precipitation and simulating the long-range transport of an inert trace constituent. Results from this prototype climate model are compared against the results of a nominally identical global {sigma} model in order to establish the relative advantages and disadvantages of each coordinate system for simulating long-range transport processes. The current work is an extension of works by Johnson et al. and Zapotocny et al. The first study used analytically specified initial conditions for {theta}-{sigma} and {sigma} coordinate channel models, the second study incorporated observed data into regional versions of both models, while the third study documented the first global results with the UW {theta}-{sigma} model. Section 2 of this report describes additions to the UW {theta}-{sigma} model since the Zapotocny et al. study, Section 3 evaluates a five day precipitation forecast produced by the UW {theta}-{sigma} model and presents a comparison of each model`s ability to prognostically simulate and conserve an inert trace constituent. A summary is presented in Section 4.

  14. Development of a new Global RAdiation Belt model: GRAB

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sicard-Piet, Angelica; Lazaro, Didier; Maget, Vincent; Rolland, Guy; Ecoffet, Robert; Bourdarie, Sébastien; Boscher, Daniel; Standarovski, Denis

    2016-07-01

    The well known AP8 and AE8 NASA models are commonly used in the industry to specify the radiation belt environment. Unfortunately, there are some limitations in the use of these models, first due to the covered energy range, but also because in some regions of space, there are discrepancies between the predicted average values and the measurements. Therefore, our aim is to develop a radiation belt model, covering a large region of space and energy, from LEO altitudes to GEO and above, and from plasma to relativistic particles. The aim for the first version is to correct the AP8 and AE8 models where they are deficient or not defined. At geostationary, we developed ten years ago for electrons the IGE-2006 model which was proven to be more accurate than AE8, and used commonly in the industry, covering a broad energy range, from 1keV to 5MeV. From then, a proton model for geostationary orbit was also developed for material applications, followed by the OZONE model covering a narrower energy range but the whole outer electron belt, a SLOT model to asses average electron values for 2model, which provides high energy proton flux values at low altitudes. As most of these models were developed using more than a solar cycle of measurements, these measurements being checked, cross calibrated and filtered, we have no doubt that the obtained averages are more accurate than AP8 and AE8 for these particular locations. These local models were validated along different orbit with independent data sets or effect measurements. We will use a cache file system to switch between models, in order to obtain at each location in space and energy point the most reliable value. Of course, the way the model is developed is well suited to add new local developments or to include international partnership. This model will be called the GRAB model, as Global Radiation Belt model. We will present first beta version during this conference.

  15. An updated subgrid orographic parameterization for global atmospheric forecast models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choi, Hyun-Joo; Hong, Song-You

    2015-12-01

    A subgrid orographic parameterization (SOP) is updated by including the effects of orographic anisotropy and flow-blocking drag (FBD). The impact of the updated SOP on short-range forecasts is investigated using a global atmospheric forecast model applied to a heavy snowfall event over Korea on 4 January 2010. When the SOP is updated, the orographic drag in the lower troposphere noticeably increases owing to the additional FBD over mountainous regions. The enhanced drag directly weakens the excessive wind speed in the low troposphere and indirectly improves the temperature and mass fields over East Asia. In addition, the snowfall overestimation over Korea is improved by the reduced heat fluxes from the surface. The forecast improvements are robust regardless of the horizontal resolution of the model between T126 and T510. The parameterization is statistically evaluated based on the skill of the medium-range forecasts for February 2014. For the medium-range forecasts, the skill improvements of the wind speed and temperature in the low troposphere are observed globally and for East Asia while both positive and negative effects appear indirectly in the middle-upper troposphere. The statistical skill for the precipitation is mostly improved due to the improvements in the synoptic fields. The improvements are also found for seasonal simulation throughout the troposphere and stratosphere during boreal winter.

  16. The near-global mesospheric potassium layer: Observations and modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dawkins, E. C. M.; Plane, J. M. C.; Chipperfield, M. P.; Feng, W.

    2015-08-01

    The meteoric metal layers act as unique tracers of chemistry and dynamics in the upper atmosphere. Existing lidar studies from a few locations show that K exhibits a semiannual seasonality (winter and summer maxima), quite unlike the annual seasonality (winter maximum and summer minimum) seen with Na and Fe. This work uses spaceborne observations made with the Optical Spectrograph and InfraRed Imager System instrument on the Odin satellite to retrieve the near-global K layer for the first time. The satellite data (2004 to mid-2013) are used to validate the implementation of a recently proposed potassium chemistry scheme in a whole atmosphere chemistry climate model, which provides a chemical basis for this semiannual seasonal behavior. The satellite and model data show that this semiannual seasonality is near global in extent, with the strongest variation at middle and high latitudes. The column abundance, centroid layer height, and root-mean-square width of the K layer are consistent with the limited available lidar record. The K data set is then used to investigate the impact of polar mesospheric clouds on the metal layers at high latitudes during summer. Finally, the occurrence frequency of sporadic K layers and their possible link to sporadic E layers are examined.

  17. Predictability of cloud fraction in global NWP models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haiden, Thomas

    2015-04-01

    Accurate prediction of cloudiness is crucial in weather forecasting. Clouds exert a strong feedback on atmospheric flow by modulating energy fluxes and heating rates. Errors in low cloudiness contribute significantly to 2-m temperature errors in the short and medium range. It is investigated how the predictability of cloud fraction depends on cloud type and cloud fraction in different global models using ECMWF's high-resolution and ensemble forecasts, as well as the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) dataset. Results indicate that the skill of a probabilistic forecast of cloudiness exceeds that of a deterministic forecast already at shorter lead times than typically found for other surface or upper-air parameters. Systematic errors in forecasted cloud fraction distributions in different cloud regimes are analyzed in the Atlantic-Euro-African domain using Climate Monitoring Satellite Application Facility (CM SAF) data. Model development at ECMWF has been able to reduce systematic and non-systematic errors in the forecast of cloudiness over the last decade. However, gains in skill have been smaller than for other parameters, possible causes of which are discussed. A significant potential for improvement of forecasts of low cloudiness (stratocumulus, stratus) is identified.

  18. Tropical drying trends in global warming models and observations.

    PubMed

    Neelin, J D; Münnich, M; Su, H; Meyerson, J E; Holloway, C E

    2006-04-18

    Anthropogenic changes in tropical rainfall are evaluated in a multimodel ensemble of global warming simulations. Major discrepancies on the spatial distribution of these precipitation changes remain in the latest-generation models analyzed here. Despite this uncertainty, we find a number of measures, both global and local, on which reasonable agreement is obtained, notably for the regions of drying trend (negative precipitation anomalies). Models agree on the overall amplitude of the precipitation decreases that occur at the margins of the convective zones, with percent error bars of magnitude similar to those for the tropical warming. Similar agreement is found on a precipitation climate sensitivity defined here and on differential moisture increase inside and outside convection zones, a step in a hypothesized causal path leading to precipitation changes. A measure of local intermodel agreement on significant trends indicates consistent predictions for particular regions. Observed rainfall trends in several data sets show a significant summer drying trend in a main region of intermodel agreement: the Caribbean/Central-American region.

  19. The near‐global mesospheric potassium layer: Observations and modeling

    PubMed Central

    Dawkins, E. C. M.; Chipperfield, M. P.; Feng, W.

    2015-01-01

    Abstract The meteoric metal layers act as unique tracers of chemistry and dynamics in the upper atmosphere. Existing lidar studies from a few locations show that K exhibits a semiannual seasonality (winter and summer maxima), quite unlike the annual seasonality (winter maximum and summer minimum) seen with Na and Fe. This work uses spaceborne observations made with the Optical Spectrograph and InfraRed Imager System instrument on the Odin satellite to retrieve the near‐global K layer for the first time. The satellite data (2004 to mid‐2013) are used to validate the implementation of a recently proposed potassium chemistry scheme in a whole atmosphere chemistry climate model, which provides a chemical basis for this semiannual seasonal behavior. The satellite and model data show that this semiannual seasonality is near global in extent, with the strongest variation at middle and high latitudes. The column abundance, centroid layer height, and root‐mean‐square width of the K layer are consistent with the limited available lidar record. The K data set is then used to investigate the impact of polar mesospheric clouds on the metal layers at high latitudes during summer. Finally, the occurrence frequency of sporadic K layers and their possible link to sporadic E layers are examined. PMID:27478716

  20. Field Line Resonances in the BATSRUS Global Magnetospheric Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ellington, S.

    2014-12-01

    Wave-mode coupling in Earth's magnetosphere is an important energy transfer mechanism and plays a major role in radiatian belt, magnetic reconnection, and auroral phenomena. We investigate signatures of field line resonances using the BATSRUS global magnetospheric model by using a synthetic solar wind driver with imbedded broadband dynamic pressure fluctuations to drive fast-mode magnetosonic waves into the inner magnetosphere. We find that BATSRUS produces a corresponding multi-harmonic continuum of toroidal field line resonances in the dayside, which show an amplitude peak and roughly 180 degree phase reversal across the resonant L shells. This demonstration of BATSRUS's ability to reproduce FLRs in the magnetosphere is an important step in self-consistently modeling ultra-low frequency wave dynamics in BATSRUS.

  1. Uncertainty in runoff based on Global Climate Model precipitation and temperature data - Part 1: Assessment of Global Climate Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McMahon, T. A.; Peel, M. C.; Karoly, D. J.

    2014-05-01

    Two key sources of uncertainty in projections of future runoff for climate change impact assessments are uncertainty between Global Climate Models (GCMs) and within a GCM. Uncertainty between GCM projections of future climate can be assessed through analysis of runs of a given scenario from a wide range of GCMs. Within GCM uncertainty is the variability in GCM output that occurs when running a scenario multiple times but each run has slightly different, but equally plausible, initial conditions. The objective of this, the first of two complementary papers, is to reduce between-GCM uncertainty by identifying and removing poorly performing GCMs prior to the analysis presented in the second paper. Here we assess how well 46 runs from 22 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) GCMs are able to reproduce observed precipitation and temperature climatological statistics. The performance of each GCM in reproducing these statistics was ranked and better performing GCMs identified for later analyses. Observed global land surface precipitation and temperature data were drawn from the CRU 3.10 gridded dataset and re-sampled to the resolution of each GCM for comparison. Observed and GCM based estimates of mean and standard deviation of annual precipitation, mean annual temperature, mean monthly precipitation and temperature and Köppen climate type were compared. The main metrics for assessing GCM performance were the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency index and RMSE between modelled and observed long-term statistics. This information combined with a literature review of the performance of the CMIP3 models identified the following five models as the better performing models for the next phase of our analysis in assessing the uncertainty in runoff estimated from GCM projections of precipitation and temperature: HadCM3 (Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research), MIROCM (Center for Climate System Research (The University of Tokyo), National Institute for

  2. Modeling global macroclimatic constraints on ectotherm energy budgets

    SciTech Connect

    Grant, B.W.; Porter, W.P.

    1992-12-31

    The authors describe a mechanistic individual-based model of how global macroclimatic constraints affect the energy budgets of ectothermic animals. The model uses macroclimatic and biophysical characters of the habitat and organism and tenets of heat transfer theory to calculate hourly temperature availabilities over a year. Data on the temperature dependence of activity rate, metabolism, food consumption and food processing capacity are used to estimate the net rate of resource assimilation which is then integrated over time. They present a new test of this model in which they show that the predicted energy budget sizes for 11 populations of the lizard Sceloporus undulates are in close agreement with observed results from previous field studies. This demonstrates that model tests rae feasible and the results are reasonable. Further, since the model represents an upper bound to the size of the energy budget, observed residual deviations form explicit predictions about the effects of environmental constraints on the bioenergetics of the study lizards within each site that may be tested by future field and laboratory studies. Three major new improvements to the modeling are discussed. They present a means to estimate microclimate thermal heterogeneity more realistically and include its effects on field rates of individual activity and food consumption. Second, they describe an improved model of digestive function involving batch processing of consumed food. Third, they show how optimality methods (specifically the methods of stochastic dynamic programming) may be included to model the fitness consequences of energy allocation decisions subject to food consumption and processing constraints which are predicted from the microclimate and physiological modeling.

  3. Modelling Freshwater Resources at the Global Scale: Challenges and Prospects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Doll, Petra; Douville, Herve; Guntner, Andreas; Schmied, Hannes Muller; Wada, Yoshihide

    2015-01-01

    Quantification of spatially and temporally resolved water flows and water storage variations for all land areas of the globe is required to assess water resources, water scarcity and flood hazards, and to understand the Earth system. This quantification is done with the help of global hydrological models (GHMs). What are the challenges and prospects in the development and application of GHMs? Seven important challenges are presented. (1) Data scarcity makes quantification of human water use difficult even though significant progress has been achieved in the last decade. (2) Uncertainty of meteorological input data strongly affects model outputs. (3) The reaction of vegetation to changing climate and CO2 concentrations is uncertain and not taken into account in most GHMs that serve to estimate climate change impacts. (4) Reasons for discrepant responses of GHMs to changing climate have yet to be identified. (5) More accurate estimates of monthly time series of water availability and use are needed to provide good indicators of water scarcity. (6) Integration of gradient-based groundwater modelling into GHMs is necessary for a better simulation of groundwater-surface water interactions and capillary rise. (7) Detection and attribution of human interference with freshwater systems by using GHMs are constrained by data of insufficient quality but also GHM uncertainty itself. Regarding prospects for progress, we propose to decrease the uncertainty of GHM output by making better use of in situ and remotely sensed observations of output variables such as river discharge or total water storage variations by multi-criteria validation, calibration or data assimilation. Finally, we present an initiative that works towards the vision of hyper resolution global hydrological modelling where GHM outputs would be provided at a 1-km resolution with reasonable accuracy.

  4. Modelling Freshwater Resources at the Global Scale: Challenges and Prospects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Döll, Petra; Douville, Hervé; Güntner, Andreas; Müller Schmied, Hannes; Wada, Yoshihide

    2016-03-01

    Quantification of spatially and temporally resolved water flows and water storage variations for all land areas of the globe is required to assess water resources, water scarcity and flood hazards, and to understand the Earth system. This quantification is done with the help of global hydrological models (GHMs). What are the challenges and prospects in the development and application of GHMs? Seven important challenges are presented. (1) Data scarcity makes quantification of human water use difficult even though significant progress has been achieved in the last decade. (2) Uncertainty of meteorological input data strongly affects model outputs. (3) The reaction of vegetation to changing climate and CO2 concentrations is uncertain and not taken into account in most GHMs that serve to estimate climate change impacts. (4) Reasons for discrepant responses of GHMs to changing climate have yet to be identified. (5) More accurate estimates of monthly time series of water availability and use are needed to provide good indicators of water scarcity. (6) Integration of gradient-based groundwater modelling into GHMs is necessary for a better simulation of groundwater-surface water interactions and capillary rise. (7) Detection and attribution of human interference with freshwater systems by using GHMs are constrained by data of insufficient quality but also GHM uncertainty itself. Regarding prospects for progress, we propose to decrease the uncertainty of GHM output by making better use of in situ and remotely sensed observations of output variables such as river discharge or total water storage variations by multi-criteria validation, calibration or data assimilation. Finally, we present an initiative that works towards the vision of hyperresolution global hydrological modelling where GHM outputs would be provided at a 1-km resolution with reasonable accuracy.

  5. ENLIL Global Heliospheric Modeling as a Context For Multipoint Observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mays, M. Leila; Odstrcil, Dusan; Luhmann, Janet; Bain, Hazel; Li, Yan; Schwadron, Nathan; Gorby, Matt; Thompson, Barbara; Jian, Lan; Möstl, Christian; Rouillard, Alexis; Davies, Jackie; Temmer, Manuela; Rastaetter, Lutz; Taktakishvili, Aleksandre; MacNeice, Peter; Kuznetsova, Maria

    2016-04-01

    We present heliospheric simulation case studies using recent enhancements to WSA--ENLIL+Cone (version 2.8) at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC). The global 3D MHD ENLIL model provides a time-dependent description of the background solar wind plasma and magnetic field using a sequence of WSA coronal model maps as input at the inner boundary of 21.5 Rs. A homogeneous, over-pressured hydrodynamic plasma cloud is launched through the inner boundary of the heliospheric computational domain and into the background solar wind. Multipoint observations help constrain simulations and this modeling system provides global context and arrival times of the solar wind streams and CMEs at Earth, planets, and spacecraft. Additionally, one can extract the magnetic topologies of observer-connected magnetic field lines and all plasma and shock properties along those field lines. ENLIL "likelihood/all-clear" forecasting maps provide expected intensity, timing/duration of events at locations throughout the heliosphere with "possible SEP affected areas" color-coded based on shock strength. ENLIL simulations are also useful to drive SEP models such as the Solar Energetic Particle Model (SEPMOD) (Luhmann et al. 2007, 2010) and Energetic Particle Radiation Environment Module (EPREM) (Schwadron et al., 2010). SEPMOD injects protons onto a sequence observer field lines at intensities dependent on the connected shock source strength which are then integrated at the observer to approximate the proton flux. EPREM couples with MHD models such as ENLIL and computes energetic particle distributions based on the focused transport equation along a Lagrangian grid of nodes that propagate out with the solar wind. Studies have shown that accurate descriptions of the heliosphere, and hence modeled CME arrival times and SEPs, are achieved by ENLIL only when the background solar wind is well-reproduced and CME parameters are accurate. It is essential to include all of the relevant CMEs and

  6. Using Models to Inform Policy: Insights from Modeling the Complexities of Global Polio Eradication

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thompson, Kimberly M.

    Drawing on over 20 years of experience modeling risks in complex systems, this talk will challenge SBP participants to develop models that provide timely and useful answers to critical policy questions when decision makers need them. The talk will include reflections on the opportunities and challenges associated with developing integrated models for complex problems and communicating their results effectively. Dr. Thompson will focus the talk largely on collaborative modeling related to global polio eradication and the application of system dynamics tools. After successful global eradication of wild polioviruses, live polioviruses will still present risks that could potentially lead to paralytic polio cases. This talk will present the insights of efforts to use integrated dynamic, probabilistic risk, decision, and economic models to address critical policy questions related to managing global polio risks. Using a dynamic disease transmission model combined with probabilistic model inputs that characterize uncertainty for a stratified world to account for variability, we find that global health leaders will face some difficult choices, but that they can take actions that will manage the risks effectively. The talk will emphasize the need for true collaboration between modelers and subject matter experts, and the importance of working with decision makers as partners to ensure the development of useful models that actually get used.

  7. Challenges and Opportunities in Modeling of the Global Atmosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Janjic, Zavisa; Djurdjevic, Vladimir; Vasic, Ratko

    2016-04-01

    Modeling paradigms on global scales may need to be reconsidered in order to better utilize the power of massively parallel processing. For high computational efficiency with distributed memory, each core should work on a small subdomain of the full integration domain, and exchange only few rows of halo data with the neighbouring cores. Note that the described scenario strongly favors horizontally local discretizations. This is relatively easy to achieve in regional models. However, the spherical geometry complicates the problem. The latitude-longitude grid with local in space and explicit in time differencing has been an early choice and remained in use ever since. The problem with this method is that the grid size in the longitudinal direction tends to zero as the poles are approached. So, in addition to having unnecessarily high resolution near the poles, polar filtering has to be applied in order to use a time step of a reasonable size. However, the polar filtering requires transpositions involving extra communications as well as more computations. The spectral transform method and the semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian schemes opened the way for application of spectral representation. With some variations, such techniques are currently dominating in global models. Unfortunately, the horizontal non-locality is inherent to the spectral representation and implicit time differencing, which inhibits scaling on a large number of cores. In this respect the lat-lon grid with polar filtering is a step in the right direction, particularly at high resolutions where the Legendre transforms become increasingly expensive. Other grids with reduced variability of grid distances, such as various versions of the cubed sphere and the hexagonal/pentagonal ("soccer ball") grids, were proposed almost fifty years ago. However, on these grids, large-scale (wavenumber 4 and 5) fictitious solutions ("grid imprinting") with significant amplitudes can develop. Due to their large scales, that

  8. Addressing sources of uncertainty in a global terrestrial carbon model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Exbrayat, J.; Pitman, A. J.; Zhang, Q.; Abramowitz, G.; Wang, Y.

    2013-12-01

    Several sources of uncertainty exist in the parameterization of the land carbon cycle in current Earth System Models (ESMs). For example, recently implemented interactions between the carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) cycles lead to diverse changes in land-atmosphere C fluxes simulated by different models. Further, although soil organic matter decomposition is commonly parameterized as a first-order decay process, the formulation of the microbial response to changes in soil moisture and soil temperature varies tremendously between models. Here, we examine the sensitivity of historical land-atmosphere C fluxes simulated by an ESM to these two major sources of uncertainty. We implement three soil moisture (SMRF) and three soil temperature (STRF) respiration functions in the CABLE-CASA-CNP land biogeochemical component of the coarse resolution CSIRO Mk3L climate model. Simulations are undertaken using three degrees of biogeochemical nutrient limitation: C-only, C and N, and C and N and P. We first bring all 27 possible combinations of a SMRF with a STRF and a biogeochemical mode to a steady-state in their biogeochemical pools. Then, transient historical (1850-2005) simulations are driven by prescribed atmospheric CO2 concentrations used in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Similarly to some previously published results, representing N and P limitation on primary production reduces the global land carbon sink while some regions become net C sources over the historical period (1850-2005). However, the uncertainty due to the SMRFs and STRFs does not decrease relative to the inter-annual variability in net uptake when N and P limitations are added. Differences in the SMRFs and STRFs and their effect on the soil C balance can also change the sign of some regional sinks. We show that this response is mostly driven by the pool size achieved at the end of the spin-up procedure. Further, there exists a six-fold range in the level

  9. Plasmaspheric Density Troughs: Global IMAGE EUV Observations and Analysis via Global Core Plasma Modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Adrian, M. L.; Gallagher, D. L.; Green, J. L.; Sandel, B. R.; Six, N. Frank (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    To date, the IMAGE EUV camera has observed several plasmaspheric density trough features inside the plasmapause under a wide range of geomagnetic activity. From the perspective of EUV, a density trough feature appears as a channel of diminished pixel counts which spans a width of L-shell (DELTA L) and magnetic local time (MLT) inside the plasmapause. Plasmaspheric density troughs are found to be morphologically complex possessing considerable spatial and temporal variability. We present an analysis of the evolution of trough DELTA L and MLT extent as functions of associated D (sub ST) and K (sub p) history. Trough features range in size from 0.16 less than or equal to DELTA L less than or equal to 1.2 with azimuthal extent from 1500 less than or equal to MLT less than or equal to 1200. All cases of plasmaspheric density troughs studied to date appear to have evolved as a result of the inner edge of the afternoon/evening plasma drainage plume being wrapped around through the nightside plasmasphere. The structure of plasmaspheric density trough features is further probed by analyzing simulated EUV images produced by forward modeling artificially introduced regions of depleted density into both static and dynamic global core plasmaspheric models. Forward modeling suggests that (1) L-shell refilling of density troughs during storm recovery can be modeled as filling from the ionosphere toward the equator (i.e., bottom-up refilling), and (2) that an erosion process is operating within flux tubes beyond the outer L-shell wall of the observed density troughs.

  10. The 4th order GISS model of the global atmosphere

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kalnay-Rivas, E.; Bayliss, A.; Storch, J.

    1977-01-01

    The new GISS 4th order model of the global atmosphere is described. It is based on 4th order quadratically conservative differences with the periodic application of a 16th order filter on the sea level pressure and potential temperature equations, a combination which is approximately enstrophy conserving. Several short range forecasts indicate a significant improvement over 2nd order forecasts with the same resolution (approximately 400 km). However the 4th order forecasts are somewhat inferior to 2nd order forecasts with double resolution. This is probably due to the presence of short waves in the range between 1000 km and 2000 km, which are computed more accurately by the 2nd order high resolution model. An operation count of the schemes indicates that with similar code optimization, the 4th order model will require approximately the same amount of computer time as the 2nd order model with the same resolution. It is estimated that the 4th order model with a grid size of 200 km provides enough accuracy to make horizontal truncation errors negligible over a period of a week for all synoptic scales (waves longer than 1000 km).

  11. Global modeling of micro plasma discharge in deionized water

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mujumdar, Soham S.; Curreli, Davide; Kapoor, Shiv G.; Ruzic, David

    2013-09-01

    One of the major applications of plasmas in liquids is the micro electro-discharge machining process (μ-EDM) where the material from one of the electrodes is removed by creating repeated pulsed plasma discharges in the inter-electrode gap filled with a dielectric liquid. One of the most commonly used dielectric for the process is deionized water. A model of a single plasma discharge event in deionized water during the μ-EDM process is presented in this paper. The plasma is modeled using a global modeling approach where the plasma is assumed to be spatially uniform, and equations of mass and energy conservation are solved together in conjunction with the expanding plasma bubble dynamics. The model is simulated for different combinations of the applied electric field and the discharge gap distance to obtain complete temporal characterization of the H2O plasma in terms of the composition of the plasma, temperature of the plasma and the radius of the plasma bubble. The model predicts time-averaged plasma temperature in the range of 12282-29572 K and electron density in the range of 5 . 12 - 30 . 22 ×1024 m-3 for applied electric fields in the range of 10 - 2000 MV/m and discharge gaps in the range of 0.5 - 20 μm.

  12. The Role of GONG observations in Global MHD Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Linker, Jon; Downs, Cooper; Lionello, Roberto; Caplan, Ronald M.; Riley, Pete; Mikić, Zoran; Arge, Nick; Henney, Carl

    2015-04-01

    The solar magnetic field is an essential aspect of any predictive model of the solar corona. For many years, the magnetic field has been measured most reliably in the photosphere. So-called ``synoptic'' maps of the photospheric field (actually built up from magnetograms acquired over the course of the solar rotation) are or have been available from a number of ground- and space-based observatories, including the Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG). MHD models of the solar corona have typically used these maps to develop boundary conditions. GONG data is unique among the ground-based observatories in (1) providing magnetogams at a high-cadence (2) providing 24 hour coverage and (3) supplying helioseismic data that can be used to provide estimates of new active regions that have emerged on the far side of the Sun. These three elements are especially important as MHD models attempt to address the time-dependent nature of the corona. In this talk we describe how the combination of flux transport models driven by GONG data, along with estimates of far side active region emergence, can be used in coronal MHD modeling and the advantages gained from this approach. Work supported by AFOSR, NASA, and NSF.

  13. Quantifying global melt flux and degassing rate from global mantle convection models with plate motion history

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, M.; Black, B. A.; Zhong, S.; Manga, M.; Rudolph, M. L.; Olson, P.

    2015-12-01

    How does the Earth's deep mantle convection affect surface climate change? Volcanism in various geological settings, including mid-ocean ridges, volcanic arcs, rift zones and sites with intraplate volcanism, releases volatiles to Earth's surface. The amount and composition of these volatiles influence the evolution Earth's ocean, crust and atmosphere, which in turn control the evolution of the biosphere. While there are constraints of Earth's degassing from the geochemistry of samples in some localized regions, a quantification of the time evolution of degassing on a global scale remains largely unknown.In this study, we run geodynamical calculations with a full 3D spherical geometry to explore the amount of partial melting in the shallow part of Earth's mantle and implied degassing at a global scale. The plate motion history for the last 200 Ma or longer is employed as time-dependent velocity boundary condition for mantle flow. Using the temperature, pressure and composition in mantle convection models, we calculate the degree of partial melting in different geological settings. We show that the melt flux at mid-ocean ridges generally increases linearly with the speed of plates, with some perturbations due to changes of length of mid-ocean ridges. Generally, this melt flux is about 2-3 times in the past 200 million years than that of the present-day Earth. The present-day melt flux is ~20 km3/year, but this value reaches ~40 km3/year at about 80Ma, and ~60 km3/year at about 120-160Ma. Given estimates of volatile content in the source regions where partial melting occurs and the melt flux we calculate, we quantify the evolution of degassing rate (of CO2) at mid-ocean ridges, hotspots, large igneous provinces, and subduction zones.

  14. Implementation of Global Carbon Cycle in GISS ModelE GCM: from Leaf to Planetary Scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aleinov, I. D.; Kiang, N. Y.; Romanou, A.; Puma, M. J.; Moorcroft, P. R.; Kim, Y.

    2010-12-01

    We present a model of Global Carbon Cycle as it is implemented inside the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ModelE General Circulation Model (GCM). The model consists of three integral components: 1) the atmospheric model which performs the transport of CO2 by means of Quadratic Upstream Scheme (QUS), 2) the Ocean model which has its own algorithm for tracer transport and which employs Watson Gregg's ocean biogeochemistry model for computation of carbon fluxes and 3) Land Surface model (LSM) which incorporates Ent Dynamic Global Terrestrial Ecosystem model (DGTEM). In this presentation we will mostly concentrate on a Land Surface component. Ent was developed as a process-based vegetation model capable of predicting the seasonal and inter-annual vegetation growth and providing the fast time scale fluxes of water, carbon, and energy between the land-surface and the atmosphere. It employs well-known photosynthesis relationships of Farquhar, von Caemmerer, and Berry and stomatal conductance of Ball and Berry. Soil CO2 fluxes are also computed by the Ent according to the CASA soil biogeochemistry model. We will start with presenting simulations for single Fluxnet sites and then will show the results for fully coupled GCM runs. For GCM simulations, we present results of both equilibrium and transient runs and discuss implications of biases in GCM-predicted climate for accurate modeling of the global carbon cycle.

  15. Dust Assimilation in a Martian Global Climate Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ruan, Tao; Montabone, Luca; Read, Peter; Lewis, Stephen

    2013-04-01

    With spacecraft, including Mars Global Surveyor (MGS), Odyssey and Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO), in orbit about Mars in sequence since 1997, there are now measurements of atmospheric temperature and dust extending over nearly 7 Martian years with unprecedented spatial coverage. Although those observations have greatly developed our understanding of the evolution, structure and climate of the Red Planet, the intermittent nature of the measurements still limits our ability to study the full details of the circulation, especially relating to dust activity. A numerical model, on the other hand, can provide continuous simulated data with high temporal and spatial resolutions, but typically fails to produce some significant features of dust storms, as well as their interannual variability. In this context, we make use of data assimilation into a Martian Global Climate Model (MGCM). This approach is able to provide a complete, four-dimensional solution consistent with both observations and with physical constraints and balances represented by the numerical model. The MGCM we use combines a spectral dynamical solver, a tracer transport scheme and dust lifting routines developed in the UK and the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD; Paris, France) Mars GCM physics package, developed in collaboration with Oxford, The Open University and Instituto de Astrofisica de Andalucia (Granada, Spain). Previous attempts at data assimilation for Mars have been conducted without explicitly advecting a dust tracer field, mainly because the Mars Global Surveyor/Thermal Emission Spectrometer (MGS/TES) did not provide information on the dust distribution in the vertical direction. The newly-available Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) data, however, provides relatively detailed information in the vertical direction, and accordingly here we describe a new data assimilation scheme with full assimilation of both temperature and dust measurements. The resulting assimilated reanalysis is

  16. Global distribution and sources of dissolved inorganic nitrogen export to the coastal zone: Results from a spatially explicit, global model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dumont, E.; Harrison, J. A.; Kroeze, C.; Bakker, E. J.; Seitzinger, S. P.

    2005-12-01

    Here we describe, test, and apply a spatially explicit, global model for predicting dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) export by rivers to coastal waters (NEWS-DIN). NEWS-DIN was developed as part of an internally consistent suite of global nutrient export models. Modeled and measured DIN export values agree well (calibration R2 = 0.79), and NEWS-DIN is relatively free of bias. NEWS-DIN predicts: DIN yields ranging from 0.0004 to 5217 kg N km-2 yr-1 with the highest DIN yields occurring in Europe and South East Asia; global DIN export to coastal waters of 25 Tg N yr-1, with 16 Tg N yr-1 from anthropogenic sources; biological N2 fixation is the dominant source of exported DIN; and globally, and on every continent except Africa, N fertilizer is the largest anthropogenic source of DIN export to coastal waters.

  17. Global access to surgical care: a modelling study

    PubMed Central

    Alkire, Blake C; Raykar, Nakul P; Shrime, Mark G; Weiser, Thomas G; Bickler, Stephen W; Rose, John A; Nutt, Cameron T; Greenberg, Sarah L M; Kotagal, Meera; Riesel, Johanna N; Esquivel, Micaela; Uribe-Leitz, Tarsicio; Molina, George; Roy, Nobhojit; Meara, John G; Farmer, Paul E

    2016-01-01

    Summary Background More than 2 billion people are unable to receive surgical care based on operating theatre density alone. The vision of the Lancet Commission on Global Surgery is universal access to safe, affordable surgical and anaesthesia care when needed. We aimed to estimate the number of individuals worldwide without access to surgical services as defined by the Commission’s vision. Methods We modelled access to surgical services in 196 countries with respect to four dimensions: timeliness, surgical capacity, safety, and affordability. We built a chance tree for each country to model the probability of surgical access with respect to each dimension, and from this we constructed a statistical model to estimate the proportion of the population in each country that does not have access to surgical services. We accounted for uncertainty with one-way sensitivity analyses, multiple imputation for missing data, and probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Findings At least 4·8 billion people (95% posterior credible interval 4·6–5·0 [67%, 64–70]) of the world’s population do not have access to surgery. The proportion of the population without access varied widely when stratified by epidemiological region: greater than 95% of the population in south Asia and central, eastern, and western sub-Saharan Africa do not have access to care, whereas less than 5% of the population in Australasia, high-income North America, and western Europe lack access. Interpretation Most of the world’s population does not have access to surgical care, and access is inequitably distributed. The near absence of access in many low-income and middle-income countries represents a crisis, and as the global health community continues to support the advancement of universal health coverage, increasing access to surgical services will play a central role in ensuring health care for all. Funding None. PMID:25926087

  18. A global predictive model of carbon in mangrove soils

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jardine, Sunny L.; Siikamäki, Juha V.

    2014-10-01

    Mangroves are among the most threatened and rapidly vanishing natural environments worldwide. They provide a wide range of ecosystem services and have recently become known for their exceptional capacity to store carbon. Research shows that mangrove conservation may be a low-cost means of reducing CO2 emissions. Accordingly, there is growing interest in developing market mechanisms to credit mangrove conservation projects for associated CO2 emissions reductions. These efforts depend on robust and readily applicable, but currently unavailable, localized estimates of soil carbon. Here, we use over 900 soil carbon measurements, collected in 28 countries by 61 independent studies, to develop a global predictive model for mangrove soil carbon. Using climatological and locational data as predictors, we explore several predictive modeling alternatives, including machine-learning methods. With our predictive model, we construct a global dataset of estimated soil carbon concentrations and stocks on a high-resolution grid (5 arc min). We estimate that the global mangrove soil carbon stock is 5.00 ± 0.94 Pg C (assuming a 1 meter soil depth) and find this stock is highly variable over space. The amount of carbon per hectare in the world’s most carbon-rich mangroves (approximately 703 ± 38 Mg C ha-1) is roughly a 2.6 ± 0.14 times the amount of carbon per hectare in the world’s most carbon-poor mangroves (approximately 272 ± 49 Mg C ha-1). Considerable within country variation in mangrove soil carbon also exists. In Indonesia, the country with the largest mangrove soil carbon stock, we estimate that the most carbon-rich mangroves contain 1.5 ± 0.12 times as much carbon per hectare as the most carbon-poor mangroves. Our results can aid in evaluating benefits from mangrove conservation and designing mangrove conservation policy. Additionally, the results can be used to project changes in mangrove soil carbon stocks based on changing climatological predictors, e.g. to

  19. Modelling global nutrient retention by river damming: Phosphorus and silicon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maavara, Taylor; Dürr, Hans; Van Cappellen, Philippe

    2014-05-01

    The phosphorus to silicon (P:Si) nutrient ratio is a key variable affecting ecosystem health in many aquatic environments. River damming represents a major anthropogenic perturbation of natural material flows along the aquatic continuum, with the potential to profoundly modify absolute and relative nutrient availabilities in surface waters. In this study, a multi-tiered approach for estimating global nutrient retention in man-made reservoirs is presented. We illustrate its application to the global riverine flux of reactive Si, using a database of dissolved reactive Si (DSi) budgets for 24 natural lakes and 22 artificial reservoirs. The database includes information on bedrock geology, surface water pH, water residence time, reservoir age and function, climate, and trophic status. Statistical analyses (ANOVA, t-test, PCA, linear plus non-linear regressions) are used to identify the best predictors of DSi retention and delineate how reservoir properties modulate nutrient dynamics. Results indicate that (1) reservoirs retain significantly less DSi than natural lakes, and (2) the water residence time, reservoir age and function (e.g., hydroelectrical production, irrigation, flood control) are the main system variables controlling DSi retention by dams. Next, a biogeochemical Si model is used to reproduce the previously derived statistical trends for DSi retention. Calibration of the model yields a relationship that enables one to predict annual in-reservoir siliceous productivity as a function of the external reactive Si supply. The model further accounts for the transition from reservoirs where reactive Si retention is primarily due to burial of allochtonous Si to those where in-reservoir DSi uptake by diatoms dominates. Finally, the statistical and mechanistic relationships are extrapolated to estimate that 25-28 Tg SiO2 yr-1 are retained worldwide by dams, or 7% of the annual reactive Si load to watersheds. We are currently applying the same multi-tiered approach

  20. Investigating model deficiencies in the global budget of ethane

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tzompa Sosa, Z. A.; Keller, C. A.; Turner, A. J.; Mahieu, E.; Franco, B.; Fischer, E. V.

    2015-12-01

    Many locations in the Northern Hemisphere show a statistically-significant sharp increase in measurements of ethane (C2H6) since 2009. It is hypothesized that the recent massive growth of shale gas exploitation in North America could be the source of this change. However, state-of-the-science chemical transport models are currently unable to reproduce the hemispheric burden of C2H6 or the recent sharp increase, pointing to a potential problem with current emission inventories. To resolve this, we used space-borne CH4 observations from the Greenhouse Gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) to derive C2H6 emissions. By using known emission ratios to CH4, we estimated emissions of C2H6 from oil and gas activities, biofuels, and biomass burning over North America. The GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model was used to simulate atmospheric abundances of C2H6 with the new emissions estimates. The model is able to reproduce Northern Hemisphere surface concentrations. However, the model significantly under-predicts the amount of C2H6 throughout the column and the observed Northern Hemispheric gradient as diagnosed by comparisons to aircraft observations from the Hiaper Pole-to-Pole (HIPPO) Campaign.

  1. An individuality model for online signatures using global Fourier descriptors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kholmatov, Alisher; Yanikoglu, Berrin

    2008-03-01

    The discriminative capability of a biometric is based on its individuality/uniqueness and is an important factor in choosing a biometric for a large-scale deployment. Individuality studies have been carried out rigorously for only certain biometrics, in particular fingerprint and iris, while work on establishing handwriting and signature individuality has been mainly on feature level. In this study, we present a preliminary individuality model for online signatures using the Fourier domain representation of the signature. Using the normalized Fourier coefficients as global features describing the signature, we derive a formula for the probability of coincidentally matching a given signature. Estimating model parameters from a large database and making certain simplifying assumptions, the probability of two arbitrary signatures to match in 13 of the coefficients is calculated as 4.7x10 -4. When compared with the results of a verification algorithm that parallels the theoretical model, the results show that the theoretical model fits the random forgery test results fairly well. While online signatures are sometimes dismissed as not very secure, our results show that the probability of successfully guessing an online signature is very low. Combined with the fact that signature is a behavioral biometric with adjustable complexity, these results support the use of online signatures for biometric authentication.

  2. A New Global Core Plasma Model of the Plasmasphere

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gallagher, D. L.; Comfort, R. H.; Craven, P. D.

    2014-01-01

    The Global Core Plasma Model (GCPM) is the first empirical model for thermal inner magnetospheric plasma designed to integrate previous models and observations into a continuous in value and gradient representation of typical total densities. New information about the plasmasphere, in particular, make possible significant improvement. The IMAGE Mission Radio Plasma Imager (RPI) has obtained the first observations of total plasma densities along magnetic field lines in the plasmasphere and polar cap. Dynamics Explorer 1 Retarding Ion Mass Spectrometer (RIMS) has provided densities in temperatures in the plasmasphere for 5 ion species. These and other works enable a new more detailed empirical model of thermal in the inner magnetosphere that will be presented. Specifically shown here are the inner-plasmasphere RIMS measurements, radial fits to densities and temperatures for H(+), He(+), He(++), O(+), and O(+) and the error associated with these initial simple fits. Also shown are more subtle dependencies on the f10.7 P-value (see Richards et al. [1994]).

  3. Titan Chemistry: Results From A Global Climate Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilson, Eric; West, R. A.; Friedson, A. J.; Oyafuso, F.

    2008-09-01

    We present results from a 3-dimesional global climate model of Titan's atmosphere and surface. This model, a modified version of NCAR's CAM-3 (Community Atmosphere Model), has been optimized for analysis of Titan's lower atmosphere and surface. With the inclusion of forcing from Saturn's gravitational tides, interaction from the surface, transfer of longwave and shortwave radiation, and parameterization of haze properties, constrained by Cassini observations, a dynamical field is generated, which serves to advect 14 long-lived species. The concentrations of these chemical tracers are also affected by 82 chemical reactions and the photolysis of 21 species, based on the Wilson and Atreya (2004) model, that provide sources and sinks for the advected species along with 23 additional non-advected radicals. In addition, the chemical contribution to haze conversion is parameterized along with the microphysical processes that serve to distribute haze opacity throughout the atmosphere. References Wilson, E.H. and S.K. Atreya, J. Geophys. Res., 109, E06002, 2004.

  4. The role of global cloud climatologies in validating numerical models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    HARSHVARDHAN

    1993-01-01

    The purpose of this work is to estimate sampling errors of area-time averaged rain rate due to temporal samplings by satellites. In particular, the sampling errors of the proposed low inclination orbit satellite of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) (35 deg inclination and 350 km altitude), one of the sun synchronous polar orbiting satellites of NOAA series (98.89 deg inclination and 833 km altitude), and two simultaneous sun synchronous polar orbiting satellites--assumed to carry a perfect passive microwave sensor for direct rainfall measurements--will be estimated. This estimate is done by performing a study of the satellite orbits and the autocovariance function of the area-averaged rain rate time series. A model based on an exponential fit of the autocovariance function is used for actual calculations. Varying visiting intervals and total coverage of averaging area on each visit by the satellites are taken into account in the model. The data are generated by a General Circulation Model (GCM). The model has a diurnal cycle and parameterized convective processes. A special run of the GCM was made at NASA/GSFC in which the rainfall and precipitable water fields were retained globally for every hour of the run for the whole year.

  5. SOC in a population model with global control

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bröker, Hans-Martin; Grassberger, Peter

    We study a plant population model introduced recently by Wallinga (OIKOS 74 (1995) 377). It is similar to the contact process (‘simple epidemic’, ‘directed percolation’), but instead of using an infection or recovery rate as control parameter, the population size is controlled directly and globally by removing excess plants. We show that the model is very closely related to directed percolation (DP). Anomalous scaling laws appear in the limit of large populations, small densities, and long times. These laws, associated critical exponents, and even some non-universal parameters, can be related to those of DP. As in invasion percolation and in other models where the rôles of control and order parameters are interchanged, the critical value pc of the wetting probability p is obtained in the scaling limit as singular point in the distribution of removal rates. We show that a mean field type approximation leads to a model studied by Zhang et al. (J. Stat. Phys. 58 (1990) 849). Finally, we verify the claim of Wallinga that family extinction in a marginally surviving population is governed by DP scaling laws, and speculate on applications to human mitochondrial DNA.

  6. California Wintertime Precipitation in Regional and Global Climate Models

    SciTech Connect

    Caldwell, P M

    2009-04-27

    In this paper, wintertime precipitation from a variety of observational datasets, regional climate models (RCMs), and general circulation models (GCMs) is averaged over the state of California (CA) and compared. Several averaging methodologies are considered and all are found to give similar values when model grid spacing is less than 3{sup o}. This suggests that CA is a reasonable size for regional intercomparisons using modern GCMs. Results show that reanalysis-forced RCMs tend to significantly overpredict CA precipitation. This appears to be due mainly to overprediction of extreme events; RCM precipitation frequency is generally underpredicted. Overprediction is also reflected in wintertime precipitation variability, which tends to be too high for RCMs on both daily and interannual scales. Wintertime precipitation in most (but not all) GCMs is underestimated. This is in contrast to previous studies based on global blended gauge/satellite observations which are shown here to underestimate precipitation relative to higher-resolution gauge-only datasets. Several GCMs provide reasonable daily precipitation distributions, a trait which doesn't seem tied to model resolution. GCM daily and interannual variability is generally underpredicted.

  7. Global phase diagram of a doped Kitaev-Heisenberg model

    SciTech Connect

    Okamoto, Satoshi

    2013-01-01

    The global phase diagram of a doped Kitaev-Heisenberg model is studied using an $SU(2)$ slave-boson mean-field method. Near the Kitaev limit, $p$-wave superconducting states which break the time-reversal symmetry are stabilized as reported by You {\\it et al.} [Phys. Rev. B {\\bf 86}, 085145 (2012)] irrespective of the sign of the Kitaev interaction. By further doping, a $d$-wave superconducting state appears when the Kitaev interaction is antiferromagnetic, while another $p$-wave superconducting state appears when the Kitaev interaction is ferromagnetic. This $p$-wave superconducting state does not break the time-reversal symmetry as reported by Hyart {\\it et al.} [Phys. Rev. B {\\bf 85}, 140510 (2012)], and such a superconducting state also appears when the antiferromagnetic Kitaev interaction and the ferromagnetic Heisenberg interaction compete. This work, thus, demonstrates the clear difference between the antiferromagnetic Kitaev model and the ferromagnetic Kitaev model when carriers are doped while these models are equivalent in the undoped limit, and how novel superconducting states emerge when the Kitaev interaction and the Heisenberg interaction compete.

  8. An empirical model for global earthquake fatality estimation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David

    2010-01-01

    We analyzed mortality rates of earthquakes worldwide and developed a country/region-specific empirical model for earthquake fatality estimation within the U. S. Geological Survey's Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system. The earthquake fatality rate is defined as total killed divided by total population exposed at specific shaking intensity level. The total fatalities for a given earthquake are estimated by multiplying the number of people exposed at each shaking intensity level by the fatality rates for that level and then summing them at all relevant shaking intensities. The fatality rate is expressed in terms of a two-parameter lognormal cumulative distribution function of shaking intensity. The parameters are obtained for each country or a region by minimizing the residual error in hindcasting the total shaking-related deaths from earthquakes recorded between 1973 and 2007. A new global regionalization scheme is used to combine the fatality data across different countries with similar vulnerability traits. [DOI: 10.1193/1.3480331

  9. The Glacial BuzzSaw, Isostasy, and Global Crustal Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Levander, A.; Oncken, O.; Niu, F.

    2015-12-01

    The glacial buzzsaw hypothesis predicts that maximum elevations in orogens at high latitudes are depressed relative to temperate latitudes, as maximum elevation and hypsography of glaciated orogens are functions of the glacial equilibrium line altitude (ELA) and the modern and last glacial maximum (LGM) snowlines. As a consequence crustal thickness, density, or both must change with increasing latitude to maintain isostatic balance. For Airy compensation crustal thickness should decrease toward polar latitudes, whereas for Pratt compensation crustal densities should increase. For similar convergence rates, higher latitude orogens should have higher grade, and presumably higher density rocks in the crustal column due to more efficient glacial erosion. We have examined a number of global and regional crustal models to see if these predictions appear in the models. Crustal thickness is straightforward to examine, crustal density less so. The different crustal models generally agree with one another, but do show some major differences. We used a standard tectonic classification scheme of the crust for data selection. The globally averaged orogens show crustal thicknesses that decrease toward high latitudes, almost reflecting topography, in both the individual crustal models and the models averaged together. The most convincing is the western hemisphere cordillera, where elevations and crustal thicknesses decrease toward the poles, and also toward lower latitudes (the equatorial minimum is at ~12oN). The elevation differences and Airy prediction of crustal thickness changes are in reasonable agreement in the North American Cordillera, but in South America the observed crustal thickness change is larger than the Airy prediction. The Alpine-Himalayan chain shows similar trends, however the strike of the chain makes interpretation ambiguous. We also examined cratons with ice sheets during the last glacial period to see if continental glaciation also thins the crust toward

  10. Integration of nitrogen dynamics into a global terrestrial ecosystem model

    SciTech Connect

    Yang, Xiaojuan; Wittig, Victoria; Jain, Atul; Post, Wilfred M

    2009-01-01

    A comprehensive model of terrestrial N dynamics has been developed and coupled with the geographically explicit terrestrial C cycle component of the Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM). The coupled C-N cycle model represents all the major processes in the N cycle and all major interactions between C and N that affect plant productivity and soil and litter decomposition. Observations from the LIDET data set were compiled for calibration and evaluation of the decomposition submodel within ISAM. For aboveground decomposition, the calibration is accomplished by optimizing parameters related to four processes: the partitioning of leaf litter between metabolic and structural material, the effect of lignin on decomposition, the climate control on decomposition and N mineralization and immobilization. For belowground decomposition, the calibrated processes include the partitioning of root litter between decomposable and resistant material as a function of litter quality, N mineralization and immobilization. The calibrated model successfully captured both the C and N dynamics during decomposition for all major biomes and a wide range of climate conditions. Model results show that net N immobilization and mineralization during litter decomposition are dominantly controlled by initial N concentration of litter and the mass remaining during decomposition. The highest and lowest soil organicNstorage are in tundra (1.24 KgNm2) and desert soil (0.06 Kg N m2). The vegetation N storage is highest in tropical forests (0.5 Kg N m2), and lowest in tundra and desert (<0.03 Kg N m2). N uptake by vegetation is highest in warm and moist regions, and lowest in cold and dry regions. Higher rates of N leaching are found in tropical regions and subtropical regions where soil moisture is higher. The global patterns of vegetation and soil N, N uptake and N leaching estimated with ISAM are consistent with measurements and previous modeling studies. This gives us confidence that ISAM

  11. A model of global citizenship: antecedents and outcomes.

    PubMed

    Reysen, Stephen; Katzarska-Miller, Iva

    2013-01-01

    As the world becomes increasingly interconnected, exposure to global cultures affords individuals opportunities to develop global identities. In two studies, we examine the antecedents and outcomes of identifying with a superordinate identity--global citizen. Global citizenship is defined as awareness, caring, and embracing cultural diversity while promoting social justice and sustainability, coupled with a sense of responsibility to act. Prior theory and research suggest that being aware of one's connection with others in the world (global awareness) and embedded in settings that value global citizenship (normative environment) lead to greater identification with global citizens. Furthermore, theory and research suggest that when global citizen identity is salient, greater identification is related to adherence to the group's content (i.e., prosocial values and behaviors). Results of the present set of studies showed that global awareness (knowledge and interconnectedness with others) and one's normative environment (friends and family support global citizenship) predicted identification with global citizens, and global citizenship predicted prosocial values of intergroup empathy, valuing diversity, social justice, environmental sustainability, intergroup helping, and a felt responsibility to act for the betterment of the world. The relationship between antecedents (normative environment and global awareness) and outcomes (prosocial values) was mediated by identification with global citizens. We discuss the relationship between the present results and other research findings in psychology, the implications of global citizenship for other academic domains, and future avenues of research. Global citizenship highlights the unique effect of taking a global perspective on a multitude of topics relevant to the psychology of everyday actions, environments, and identity.

  12. Revised Perturbation Statistics for the Global Scale Atmospheric Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Justus, C. G.; Woodrum, A.

    1975-01-01

    Magnitudes and scales of atmospheric perturbations about the monthly mean for the thermodynamic variables and wind components are presented by month at various latitudes. These perturbation statistics are a revision of the random perturbation data required for the global scale atmospheric model program and are from meteorological rocket network statistical summaries in the 22 to 65 km height range and NASA grenade and pitot tube data summaries in the region up to 90 km. The observed perturbations in the thermodynamic variables were adjusted to make them consistent with constraints required by the perfect gas law and the hydrostatic equation. Vertical scales were evaluated by Buell's depth of pressure system equation and from vertical structure function analysis. Tables of magnitudes and vertical scales are presented for each month at latitude 10, 30, 50, 70, and 90 degrees.

  13. The role of global cloud climatologies in validating numerical models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    HARSHVARDHAN

    1991-01-01

    The net upward longwave surface radiation is exceedingly difficult to measure from space. A hybrid method using General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations and satellite data from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) and the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) was used to produce global maps of this quantity over oceanic areas. An advantage of this technique is that no independent knowledge or assumptions regarding cloud cover for a particular month are required. The only information required is a relationship between the cloud radiation forcing (CRF) at the top of the atmosphere and that at the surface, which is obtained from the GCM simulation. A flow diagram of the technique and results are given.

  14. Global flow of the Higgs potential in a Yukawa model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Borchardt, Julia; Gies, Holger; Sondenheimer, René

    2016-08-01

    We study the renormalization flow of the Higgs potential as a function of both field amplitude and energy scale. This overcomes limitations of conventional techniques that rely, e.g., on an identification of field amplitude and RG scale, or on local field expansions. Using a Higgs-Yukawa model with discrete chiral symmetry as an example, our global flows in field space clarify the origin of possible metastabilities, the fate of the pseudo-stable phase, and provide new information as regards the renormalization of the tunnel barrier. Our results confirm the relaxation of the lower bound for the Higgs mass in the presence of more general microscopic interactions (higher-dimensional operators) to a high quantitative accuracy.

  15. Atmospheric trace gases and global climate - A seasonal model study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wang, Wei-Chyung; Molnar, Gyula; Ko, Malcolm K. W.; Goldenberg, Steven; Sze, Nien Dak

    1990-01-01

    Atmospheric models with seasonal cycles are used to study the possible near-future changes in latitudinal and vertical distributions of atmospheric ozone and temperature caused by increases of trace gases. It is found that increases of CFCs, CH4, and N2O may add to the surface warming from increased CO2. Calculations based on projected trends of CO2, N2O, CH4, and CFCs show that the annual mean and global mean surface temperature could warm by as much as 2.5 C by the year 2050, with larger warming at high latitudes. The results suggest that the warming in the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere is much larger than that at the surface, especially during the summer season.

  16. A Multi-Tier Provenance Model for Global Climate Research

    SciTech Connect

    Stephan, Eric G.; Halter, Todd D.; Gibson, Tara D.; Beagley, Nathaniel; Schuchardt, Karen L.

    2009-08-19

    Global climate researchers rely upon many forms of sensor data and analytical methods to help profile subtle changes in climate conditions. The U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program provides researchers with curated products called Value Added Products (VAPs) resulting from continuous instrumentation streams, data fusion, and analytical profiling. To provide these projects the ARM operations and research teams rely upon a number of techniques to ensure strict quality control and quality assurance codes are maintained. End users in the climate research community are highly interested in obtaining as much causal evidence as possible and currently either not all the evidence are easily attainable or easily identifiable without significant effort. Our research interests are to identify a provenance model that serves both the producers and consumers of the VAP maintaining the quality assurance/quality control standards and tailored to meeting the individual researcher’s needs.

  17. Global ballistic acceleration in a bouncing-ball model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kroetz, Tiago; Livorati, André L. P.; Leonel, Edson D.; Caldas, Iberê L.

    2015-07-01

    The ballistic increase for the velocity of a particle in a bouncing-ball model was investigated. The phenomenon is caused by accelerating structures in phase space known as accelerator modes. They lead to a regular and monotonic increase of the velocity. Here, both regular and ballistic Fermi acceleration coexist in the dynamics, leading the dynamics to two different growth regimes. We characterized deaccelerator modes in the dynamics, corresponding to unstable points in the antisymmetric position of the accelerator modes. In control parameter space, parameter sets for which these accelerations and deaccelerations constitute structures were obtained analytically. Since the mapping is not symplectic, we found fractal basins of influence for acceleration and deacceleration bounded by the stable and unstable manifolds, where the basins affect globally the average velocity of the system.

  18. Efficient data IO for a Parallel Global Cloud Resolving Model

    SciTech Connect

    Palmer, Bruce J.; Koontz, Annette S.; Schuchardt, Karen L.; Heikes, Ross P.; Randall, David A.

    2011-11-26

    Execution of a Global Cloud Resolving Model (GCRM) at target resolutions of 2-4 km will generate, at a minimum, 10s of Gigabytes of data per variable per snapshot. Writing this data to disk without creating a serious bottleneck in the execution of the GCRM code while also supporting efficient post-execution data analysis is a significant challenge. This paper discusses an Input/Output (IO) application programmer interface (API) for the GCRM that efficiently moves data from the model to disk while maintaining support for community standard formats, avoiding the creation of very large numbers of files, and supporting efficient analysis. Several aspects of the API will be discussed in detail. First, we discuss the output data layout which linearizes the data in a consistent way that is independent of the number of processors used to run the simulation and provides a convenient format for subsequent analyses of the data. Second, we discuss the flexible API interface that enables modelers to easily add variables to the output stream by specifying where in the GCRM code these variables are located and to flexibly configure the choice of outputs and distribution of data across files. The flexibility of the API is designed to allow model developers to add new data fields to the output as the model develops and new physics is added and also provides a mechanism for allowing users of the GCRM code itself to adjust the output frequency and the number of fields written depending on the needs of individual calculations. Third, we describe the mapping to the NetCDF data model with an emphasis on the grid description. Fourth, we describe our messaging algorithms and IO aggregation strategies that are used to achieve high bandwidth while simultaneously writing concurrently from many processors to shared files. We conclude with initial performance results.

  19. Modeling plasma pressure anisotropy's effect on Saturn's global magnetospheric dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tilley, M.; Harnett, E. M.; Winglee, R.

    2014-12-01

    A 3D multi-fluid, multi-scale plasma model with a complete treatment of plasma pressure anisotropy is employed to study global magnetospheric dynamics at Saturn. Cassini has observed anisotropies in the Saturnian magnetosphere, and analyses have showed correlations between anisotropy and plasma convection, ring current structure and intensity, confinement of plasma to the equatorial plane, as well as mass transport to the outer magnetosphere. The energization and transport of plasma within Saturn's magnetosphere is impactful upon the induced magnetic environments and atmospheres of potentially habitable satellites such as Enceladus and Titan. Recent efforts to couple pressure anisotropy with 3D multi-fluid plasma modeling have shown a significant move towards matching observations for simulations of Earth's magnetosphere. Our approach is used to study the effects of plasma pressure anisotropy on global processes of the Saturnian magnetosphere such as identifying the effect of pressure anisotropy on the centrifugal interchange instability. Previous simulation results have not completely replicated all aspects of the structure and formation of the interchange 'fingers' measured by Cassini at Saturn. The related effects of anisotropy, in addition to those mentioned above, include contribution to formation of MHD waves (e.g. reduction of Alfvén wave speed) and formation of firehose and mirror instabilities. An accurate understanding of processes such as the interchange instability is required if a complete picture of mass and energy transport at Saturn is to be realized. The results presented here will detail how the inclusion of a full treatment of pressure anisotropy for idealized solar wind conditions modifies the interchange structure and shape of the tail current sheet. Simulation results are compared to observations made by Cassini.

  20. Global Modeling of Tropospheric Chemistry with Assimilated Meteorology: Model Description and Evaluation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bey, Isabelle; Jacob, Daniel J.; Yantosca, Robert M.; Logan, Jennifer A.; Field, Brendan D.; Fiore, Arlene M.; Li, Qin-Bin; Liu, Hong-Yu; Mickley, Loretta J.; Schultz, Martin G.

    2001-01-01

    We present a first description and evaluation of GEOS-CHEM, a global three-dimensional (3-D) model of tropospheric chemistry driven by assimilated meteorological observations from the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) of the NASA Data Assimilation Office (DAO). The model is applied to a 1-year simulation of tropospheric ozone-NOx-hydrocarbon chemistry for 1994, and is evaluated with observations both for 1994 and for other years. It reproduces usually to within 10 ppb the concentrations of ozone observed from the worldwide ozonesonde data network. It simulates correctly the seasonal phases and amplitudes of ozone concentrations for different regions and altitudes, but tends to underestimate the seasonal amplitude at northern midlatitudes. Observed concentrations of NO and peroxyacetylnitrate (PAN) observed in aircraft campaigns are generally reproduced to within a factor of 2 and often much better. Concentrations of HNO3 in the remote troposphere are overestimated typically by a factor of 2-3, a common problem in global models that may reflect a combination of insufficient precipitation scavenging and gas-aerosol partitioning not resolved by the model. The model yields an atmospheric lifetime of methylchloroform (proxy for global OH) of 5.1 years, as compared to a best estimate from observations of 5.5 plus or minus 0.8 years, and simulates H2O2 concentrations observed from aircraft with significant regional disagreements but no global bias. The OH concentrations are approximately 20% higher than in our previous global 3-D model which included an UV-absorbing aerosol. Concentrations of CO tend to be underestimated by the model, often by 10-30 ppb, which could reflect a combination of excessive OH (a 20% decrease in model OH could be accommodated by the methylchloroform constraint) and an underestimate of CO sources (particularly biogenic). The model underestimates observed acetone concentrations over the South Pacific in fall by a factor of 3; a missing source

  1. Global modeling of tropospheric chemistry with assimilated meteorology: Model description and evaluation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bey, Isabelle; Jacob, Daniel J.; Yantosca, Robert M.; Logan, Jennifer A.; Field, Brendan D.; Fiore, Arlene M.; Li, Qinbin; Liu, Honguy Y.; Mickley, Loretta J.; Schultz, Martin G.

    2001-10-01

    We present a first description and evaluation of GEOS-CHEM, a global threedimensional (3-D) model of tropospheric chemistry driven by assimilated meteorological observations from the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) of the NASA Data Assimilation Office (DAO). The model is applied to a 1-year simulation of tropospheric ozone-NOx-hydrocarbon chemistry for 1994, and is evaluated with observations both for 1994 and for other years. It reproduces usually to within 10 ppb the concentrations of ozone observed from the worldwide ozonesonde data network. It simulates correctly the seasonal phases and amplitudes of ozone concentrations for different regions and altitudes, but tends to underestimate the seasonal amplitude at northern midlatitudes. Observed concentrations of NO and peroxyacetylnitrate (PAN) observed in aircraft campaigns are generally reproduced to within a factor of 2 and often much better. Concentrations of HNO3 in the remote troposphere are overestimated typically by a factor of 2-3, a common problem in global models that may reflect a combination of insufficient precipitation scavenging and gas-aerosol partitioning not resolved by the model. The model yields an atmospheric lifetime of methylchloroform (proxy for global OH) of 5.1 years, as compared to a best estimate from observations of 5.5 +/- 0.8 years, and simulates H2O2 concentrations observed from aircraft with significant regional disagreements but no global bias. The OH concentrations are ˜20% higher than in our previous global 3-D model which included an UV-absorbing aerosol. Concentrations of CO tend to be underestimated by the model, often by 10-30 ppb, which could reflect a combination of excessive OH (a 20% decrease in model OH could be accommodated by the methylchloroform constraint) and an underestimate of CO sources (particularly biogenic). The model underestimates observed acetone concentrations over the South Pacific in fall by a factor of 3; a missing source from the ocean may be

  2. CLIVAR-GSOP/GODAE Ocean Synthesis Inter-Comparison of Global Air-Sea Fluxes From Ocean and Coupled Reanalyses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Valdivieso, Maria

    2014-05-01

    The GODAE OceanView and CLIVAR-GSOP ocean synthesis program has been assessing the degree of consistency between global air-sea flux data sets obtained from ocean or coupled reanalyses (Valdivieso et al., 2014). So far, fifteen global air-sea heat flux products obtained from ocean or coupled reanalyses have been examined: seven are from low-resolution ocean reanalyses (BOM PEODAS, ECMWF ORAS4, JMA/MRI MOVEG2, JMA/MRI MOVECORE, Hamburg Univ. GECCO2, JPL ECCOv4, and NCEP GODAS), five are from eddy-permitting ocean reanalyses developed as part of the EU GMES MyOcean program (Mercator GLORYS2v1, Reading Univ. UR025.3, UR025.4, UKMO GloSea5, and CMCC C-GLORS), and the remaining three are couple reanalyses based on coupled climate models (JMA/MRI MOVE-C, GFDL ECDA and NCEP CFSR). The global heat closure in the products over the period 1993-2009 spanned by all data sets is presented in comparison with observational and atmospheric reanalysis estimates. Then, global maps of ensemble spread in the seasonal cycle, and of the Signal to Noise Ratio of interannual flux variability over the 17-yr common period are shown to illustrate the consistency between the products. We have also studied regional variability in the products, particularly at the OceanSITES project locations (such as, for instance, the TAO/TRITON and PIRATA arrays in the Tropical Pacific and Atlantic, respectively). Comparisons are being made with other products such as OAFlux latent and sensible heat fluxes (Yu et al., 2008) combined with ISCCP satellite-based radiation (Zhang et al., 2004), the ship-based NOC2.0 product (Berry and Kent, 2009), the Large and Yeager (2009) hybrid flux dataset CORE.2, and two atmospheric reanalysis products, the ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis (referred to as ERAi, Dee et al., 2011) and the NCEP/DOE reanalysis R2 (referred to as NCEP-R2, Kanamitsu et al., 2002). Preliminary comparisons with the observational flux products from OceanSITES are also underway. References Berry, D

  3. Modelling 1-minute directional observations of the global irradiance.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thejll, Peter; Pagh Nielsen, Kristian; Andersen, Elsa; Furbo, Simon

    2016-04-01

    Direct and diffuse irradiances from the sky has been collected at 1-minute intervals for about a year from the experimental station at the Technical University of Denmark for the IEA project "Solar Resource Assessment and Forecasting". These data were gathered by pyrheliometers tracking the Sun, as well as with apertured pyranometers gathering 1/8th and 1/16th of the light from the sky in 45 degree azimuthal ranges pointed around the compass. The data are gathered in order to develop detailed models of the potentially available solar energy and its variations at high temporal resolution in order to gain a more detailed understanding of the solar resource. This is important for a better understanding of the sub-grid scale cloud variation that cannot be resolved with climate and weather models. It is also important for optimizing the operation of active solar energy systems such as photovoltaic plants and thermal solar collector arrays, and for passive solar energy and lighting to buildings. We present regression-based modelling of the observed data, and focus, here, on the statistical properties of the model fits. Using models based on the one hand on what is found in the literature and on physical expectations, and on the other hand on purely statistical models, we find solutions that can explain up to 90% of the variance in global radiation. The models leaning on physical insights include terms for the direct solar radiation, a term for the circum-solar radiation, a diffuse term and a term for the horizon brightening/darkening. The purely statistical model is found using data- and formula-validation approaches picking model expressions from a general catalogue of possible formulae. The method allows nesting of expressions, and the results found are dependent on and heavily constrained by the cross-validation carried out on statistically independent testing and training data-sets. Slightly better fits -- in terms of variance explained -- is found using the purely

  4. TOPEX/POSEIDON tides estimated using a global inverse model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Egbert, Gary D.; Bennett, Andrew F.; Foreman, Michael G. G.

    1994-01-01

    Altimetric data from the TOPEX/POSEIDON mission will be used for studies of global ocean circulation and marine geophysics. However, it is first necessary to remove the ocean tides, which are aliased in the raw data. The tides are constrained by the two distinct types of information: the hydrodynamic equations which the tidal fields of elevations and velocities must satisfy, and direct observational data from tide gauges and satellite altimetry. Here we develop and apply a generalized inverse method, which allows us to combine rationally all of this information into global tidal fields best fitting both the data and the dynamics, in a least squares sense. The resulting inverse solution is a sum of the direct solution to the astronomically forced Laplace tidal equations and a linear combination of the representers for the data functionals. The representer functions (one for each datum) are determined by the dynamical equations, and by our prior estimates of the statistics or errors in these equations. Our major task is a direct numerical calculation of these representers. This task is computationally intensive, but well suited to massively parallel processing. By calculating the representers we reduce the full (infinite dimensional) problem to a relatively low-dimensional problem at the outset, allowing full control over the conditioning and hence the stability of the inverse solution. With the representers calculated we can easily update our model as additional TOPEX/POSEIDON data become available. As an initial illustration we invert harmonic constants from a set of 80 open-ocean tide gauges. We then present a practical scheme for direct inversion of TOPEX/POSEIDON crossover data. We apply this method to 38 cycles of geophysical data records (GDR) data, computing preliminary global estimates of the four principal tidal constituents, M(sub 2), S(sub 2), K(sub 1) and O(sub 1). The inverse solution yields tidal fields which are simultaneously smoother, and in better

  5. Enhanced global mathematical model for studying cerebral venous blood flow.

    PubMed

    Müller, Lucas O; Toro, Eleuterio F

    2014-10-17

    Here we extend the global, closed-loop, mathematical model for the cardiovascular system in Müller and Toro (2014) to account for fundamental mechanisms affecting cerebral venous haemodynamics: the interaction between intracranial pressure and cerebral vasculature and the Starling-resistor like behaviour of intracranial veins. Computational results are compared with flow measurements obtained from Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI), showing overall satisfactory agreement. The role played by each model component in shaping cerebral venous flow waveforms is investigated. Our results are discussed in light of current physiological concepts and model-driven considerations, indicating that the Starling-resistor like behaviour of intracranial veins at the point where they join dural sinuses is the leading mechanism. Moreover, we present preliminary results on the impact of neck vein strictures on cerebral venous hemodynamics. These results show that such anomalies cause a pressure increment in intracranial cerebral veins, even if the shielding effect of the Starling-resistor like behaviour of cerebral veins is taken into account. PMID:25169660

  6. Intercomparison of the Cloud Water Phase among Global Climate Models

    SciTech Connect

    Komurcu, Muge; Storelvmo, Trude; Tan, Ivy; Lohmann, U.; Yun, Yuxing; Penner, Joyce E.; Wang, Yong; Liu, Xiaohong; Takemura, T.

    2014-03-27

    Mixed-phase clouds (clouds that consist of both cloud droplets and ice crystals) are frequently present in the Earth’s atmosphere and influence the Earth’s energy budget through their radiative properties, which are highly dependent on the cloud water phase. In this study, the phase partitioning of cloud water is compared among six global climate models (GCMs) and with Cloud and Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization retrievals. It is found that the GCMs predict vastly different distributions of cloud phase for a given temperature, and none of them are capable of reproducing the spatial distribution or magnitude of the observed phase partitioning. While some GCMs produced liquid water paths comparable to satellite observations, they all failed to preserve sufficient liquid water at mixed-phase cloud temperatures. Our results suggest that validating GCMs using only the vertically integrated water contents could lead to amplified differences in cloud radiative feedback. The sensitivity of the simulated cloud phase in GCMs to the choice of heterogeneous ice nucleation parameterization is also investigated. The response to a change in ice nucleation is quite different for each GCM, and the implementation of the same ice nucleation parameterization in all models does not reduce the spread in simulated phase among GCMs. The results suggest that processes subsequent to ice nucleation are at least as important in determining phase and should be the focus of future studies aimed at understanding and reducing differences among the models.

  7. Global Modeling of Mineral Dust and its Optical Thickness

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ginoux, Paul A.; Chin, Mian; Tegen, Ina; Herman, Jay R.; Torres, Omar; Winker, David; Holben, Brent; Lin, S.-J.

    1999-01-01

    Global distribution of dust in the atmosphere has been simulated using the NASA Goddard chemical transport model (GEOS-CTM) to help retrieve the aerosol optical thickness from TOMS absorbing aerosol index. The model contains a dust module which accounts for sources and removal processes. The transport is driven by the assimilated meteorological fields generated by the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS). One of the key parameters, in the retrieval algorithm of optical thickness from Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) data, is the vertical profile of aerosols. During the period 10- 19 September 1994, Lidar on-space Technology Experiment (LITE) was flown on space shuttle Discovery. The 53 hours of data collected cover the lower atmosphere from the earth surface to 20 kilometers altitude and from 57 N to 57 S with a high resolution of about 15 meters. The model results are compared with LITE data over the source regions of dust (Africa, Middle East, Asia, Australia) and in the remote troposphere (Atlantic and Pacific). The simulated horizontal distribution is compared with TOMS absorbing aerosol index. Finally the calculated optical thickness will be assessed with ground based sun-photometers (AERONET).

  8. Global Magnetospheric Simulations: coupling with ionospheric and solar wind models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lapenta, Giovanni; Olshevskyi, Vyacheslav; Amaya, Jorge; Deca, Jan; Markidis, Stefano; Vapirev, Alexander

    2013-04-01

    We present results on the global fully kinetic model of the magnetosphere of the Earth. The simulations are based on the iPic3D code [1] that treats kinetically all plasma species solving implicitly the equations of motion for electrons and ions, coupled with the Maxwell equations. We present results of our simulations and discuss the coupling at the inner boundary near the Earth with models of the ionosphere and at the outer boundary with models of the arriving solar wind. The results are part of the activities of the Swiff FP7 project: www.swiff.eu [1] Stefano Markidis, Giovanni Lapenta, Rizwan-uddin, Multi-scale simulations of plasma with iPIC3D, Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, Volume 80, Issue 7, March 2010, Pages 1509-1519, ISSN 0378-4754, 10.1016/j.matcom.2009.08.038 [2] Giovanni Lapenta, Particle simulations of space weather, Journal of Computational Physics, Volume 231, Issue 3, 1 February 2012, Pages 795-821, ISSN 0021-9991, 10.1016/j.jcp.2011.03.035.

  9. Global emissions and models of photochemically active compounds

    SciTech Connect

    Penner, J.E.; Atherton, C.S.; Graedel, T.E.

    1993-05-20

    Anthropogenic emissions from industrial activity, fossil fuel combustion, and biomass burning are now known to be large enough (relative to natural sources) to perturb the chemistry of vast regions of the troposphere. A goal of the IGAC Global Emissions Inventory Activity (GEIA) is to provide authoritative and reliable emissions inventories on a 1{degree} {times} 1{degree} grid. When combined with atmospheric photochemical models, these high quality emissions inventories may be used to predict the concentrations of major photochemical products. Comparison of model results with measurements of pertinent species allows us to understand whether there are major shortcomings in our understanding of tropospheric photochemistry, the budgets and transport of trace species, and their effects in the atmosphere. Through this activity, we are building the capability to make confident predictions of the future consequences of anthropogenic emissions. This paper compares IGAC recommended emissions inventories for reactive nitrogen and sulfur dioxide to those that have been in use previously. We also present results from the three-dimensional LLNL atmospheric chemistry model that show how emissions of anthropogenic nitrogen oxides might potentially affect tropospheric ozone and OH concentrations and how emissions of anthropogenic sulfur increase sulfate aerosol loadings.

  10. GRAM 88 - 4D GLOBAL REFERENCE ATMOSPHERE MODEL-1988

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson, D. L.

    1994-01-01

    The Four-D Global Reference Atmosphere program was developed from an empirical atmospheric model which generates values for pressure, density, temperature, and winds from surface level to orbital altitudes. This program can generate altitude profiles of atmospheric parameters along any simulated trajectory through the atmosphere. The program was developed for design applications in the Space Shuttle program, such as the simulation of external tank re-entry trajectories. Other potential applications are global circulation and diffusion studies; also the generation of profiles for comparison with other atmospheric measurement techniques such as satellite measured temperature profiles and infrasonic measurement of wind profiles. GRAM-88 is the latest version of the software GRAM. The software GRAM-88 contains a number of changes that have improved the model statistics, in particular, the small scale density perturbation statistics. It also corrected a low latitude grid problem as well as the SCIDAT data base. Furthermore, GRAM-88 now uses the U.S. Standard Atmosphere 1976 as a comparison standard rather than the US62 used in other versions. The program is an amalgamation of two empirical atmospheric models for the low (25km) and the high (90km) atmosphere, with a newly developed latitude-longitude dependent model for the middle atmosphere. The Jacchia (1970) model simulates the high atmospheric region above 115km. The Jacchia program sections are in separate subroutines so that other thermosphericexospheric models could easily be adapted if required for special applications. The improved code eliminated the calculation of geostrophic winds above 125 km altitude from the model. The atmospheric region between 30km and 90km is simulated by a latitude-longitude dependent empirical model modification of the latitude dependent empirical model of Groves (1971). A fairing technique between 90km and 115km accomplished a smooth transition between the modified Groves values and

  11. Global sensitivity analysis of the radiative transfer model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neelam, Maheshwari; Mohanty, Binayak P.

    2015-04-01

    With the recently launched Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission, it is very important to have a complete understanding of the radiative transfer model for better soil moisture retrievals and to direct future research and field campaigns in areas of necessity. Because natural systems show great variability and complexity with respect to soil, land cover, topography, precipitation, there exist large uncertainties and heterogeneities in model input factors. In this paper, we explore the possibility of using global sensitivity analysis (GSA) technique to study the influence of heterogeneity and uncertainties in model inputs on zero order radiative transfer (ZRT) model and to quantify interactions between parameters. GSA technique is based on decomposition of variance and can handle nonlinear and nonmonotonic functions. We direct our analyses toward growing agricultural fields of corn and soybean in two different regions, Iowa, USA (SMEX02) and Winnipeg, Canada (SMAPVEX12). We noticed that, there exists a spatio-temporal variation in parameter interactions under different soil moisture and vegetation conditions. Radiative Transfer Model (RTM) behaves more non-linearly in SMEX02 and linearly in SMAPVEX12, with average parameter interactions of 14% in SMEX02 and 5% in SMAPVEX12. Also, parameter interactions increased with vegetation water content (VWC) and roughness conditions. Interestingly, soil moisture shows an exponentially decreasing sensitivity function whereas parameters such as root mean square height (RMS height) and vegetation water content show increasing sensitivity with 0.05 v/v increase in soil moisture range. Overall, considering the SMAPVEX12 fields to be water rich environment (due to higher observed SM) and SMEX02 fields to be energy rich environment (due to lower SM and wide ranges of TSURF), our results indicate that first order as well as interactions between the parameters change with water and energy rich environments.

  12. An exploration of Saturn's stratospheric dynamics through Global Climate Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spiga, Aymeric; Guerlet, Sandrine; Indurain, Mikel; Millour, Ehouarn; Sylvestre, Mélody; Thierry, Fouchet; Meurdesoif, Yann; Thomas, Dubos

    2014-11-01

    A decade of Cassini observations has yielded a new vision on the dynamical phenomena in Saturn's troposphere and stratosphere. Several puzzling signatures (equatorial oscillations with a period of about half a Saturn year, interhemispheric circulations affecting the hydrocarbons’ distribution, including possible effects of rings shadowing, sudden warming associated with the powerful 2010 Great White Spot) cannot be explained by current photochemical and radiative models, which do not include dynamics. We therefore suspect that 1. the observed anomalies arise from large-scale dynamical circulations and 2. those large-scale dynamical motions are driven by atmospheric waves, eddies, and convection, in other words fundamental mechanisms giving birth to, e.g., the Quasi-Biennal Oscillation and Brewer-Dobson circulation in the Earth’s middle atmosphere. We explore the plausibility of this scenario using our new Global Climate Modeling (GCM) for Saturn. To build this model, we firstly formulated dedicated physical parameterizations for Saturn’s atmosphere, with a particular emphasis on radiative computations (using a correlated-k radiative transfer model, with radiative species and spectral discretization tailored for Saturn) aimed at both efficiency and accuracy, and validated them against existing Cassini observations. A second step consisted in coupling this radiative model to an hydrodynamical solver to predict the three-dimensional evolution of Saturn's tropospheric and stratospheric flow. We will provide an analysis of the first results of those dynamical simulations, with a focus on the development of baroclinic and barotropic instability, on eddy vs. mean flow interactions, and how this could relate to the enigmatic signatures observed by Cassini. Preliminary high-resolution simulations with a new icosahedral dynamical solver adapted to high-performance computing will also be analyzed. Perspectives are twofold: firstly, broadening our fundamental knowledge

  13. An exploration of Saturn's atmospheric dynamics with Global Climate Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spiga, Aymeric; Guerlet, Sandrine; Indurain, Mikel; Meurdesoif, Yann; Millour, Ehouarn; Sylvestre, Mélody; Dubos, Thomas; Fouchet, Thierry

    2015-04-01

    A decade of Cassini observations has yielded a new vision on the dynamical phenomena in Saturn's troposphere and stratosphere. Several puzzling signatures (equatorial oscillations with a period of about half a Saturn year, interhemispheric circulations affecting the hydrocarbons' distribution, including possible effects of rings shadowing, sudden warming associated with the powerful 2010 Great White Spot) cannot be explained by current photochemical and radiative models, which do not include dynamics. We therefore suspect that 1. the observed anomalies arise from large-scale dynamical circulations and 2. those large-scale dynamical motions are driven by atmospheric waves, eddies, and convection, in other words fundamental mechanisms giving birth to, e.g., the Quasi-Biennal Oscillation and Brewer-Dobson circulation in the Earth's middle atmosphere. We explore the plausibility of this scenario using our new Global Climate Modeling (GCM) for Saturn. To build this model, we firstly formulated dedicated physical parameterizations for Saturn's atmosphere, with a particular emphasis on radiative computations (using a correlated-k radiative transfer model, with radiative species and spectral discretization tailored for Saturn) aimed at both efficiency and accuracy, and validated them against existing Cassini observations. A second step consisted in coupling this radiative model to an hydrodynamical solver to predict the three-dimensional evolution of Saturn's tropospheric and stratospheric flow. We will provide an analysis of the first results of those dynamical simulations, with a focus on the development of baroclinic and barotropic instability, on eddy vs. mean flow interactions, and how this could relate to the enigmatic signatures observed by Cassini. Preliminary high-resolution simulations with a new icosahedral dynamical solver adapted to high-performance computing will also be analyzed. Perspectives are twofold: firstly, broadening our fundamental knowledge of

  14. Global Modeling, Field Campaigns, Upscaling and Ray Desjardins

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sellers, P. J.; Hall, F. G.

    2012-01-01

    In the early 1980's, it became apparent that land surface radiation and energy budgets were unrealistically represented in Global Circulation models (GCM's), Shortly thereafter, it became clear that the land carbon budget was also poorly represented in Earth System Models (ESM's), A number of scientific communities, including GCM/ESM modelers, micrometeorologists, satellite data specialists and plant physiologists, came together to design field experiments that could be used to develop and validate the contemporary prototype land surface models. These experiments were designed to measure land surface fluxes of radiation, heat, water vapor and CO2 using a network of flux towers and other plot-scale techniques, coincident with satellite measurements of related state variables, The interdisciplinary teams involved in these experiments quickly became aware of the scale gap between plot-scale measurements (approx 10 - 100m), satellite measurements (100m - 10 km), and GCM grid areas (l0 - 200km). At the time, there was no established flux measurement capability to bridge these scale gaps. Then, a Canadian science learn led by Ray Desjardins started to actively participate in the design and execution of the experiments, with airborne eddy correlation providing the radically innovative bridge across the scale gaps, In a succession of brilliantly executed field campaigns followed up by convincing scientific analyses, they demonstrated that airborne eddy correlation allied with satellite data was the most powerful upscaling tool available to the community, The rest is history: the realism and credibility of weather and climate models has been enormously improved enormously over the last 25 years with immense benefits to the public and policymakers.

  15. Interpretation of simulated global warming using a simple model

    SciTech Connect

    Watterson, I.G.

    2000-01-01

    A simple energy balance model with two parameters, an effective heat capacity and an effective climate sensitivity, is used to interpret six GCM simulations of greenhouse gas-induced global warming. By allowing the parameters to vary in time, the model can be accurately calibrated for each run. It is found that the sensitivity can be approximated as a constant in each case. However, the effective heat capacity clearly varies, and it is important that the energy equation is formulated appropriately, and thus unlike many such models. For simulations with linear forcing and from a cold start, the capacity is in each case close to that of a homogeneous ocean with depth initially 200 m, but increasing some 4.3 m each year, irrespective of the sensitivity and forcing growth rate. Analytic solutions for t his linear capacity function are derived, and these reproduce the GCM runs well, even for cases where the forcing is stabilized after a century or so. The formation of a subsurface maximum in the mean ocean temperature anomaly is a significant feature of such cases. A simple model for a GCM run with a realistic forcing scenario starting from 1,880 is constructed using component results for forcing segments. Given this, an estimate of the cold start error of a simulation of the warming due to forcing after the present would be given by the negative of the temperature drift of the anomaly due to the past forcing. The simple model can evidently be used to give an indication of likely warming curves, at lest for this range of scenarios and GCM sensitivities.

  16. Global instability in the Ghil-Sellers model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bódai, Tamás; Lucarini, Valerio; Lunkeit, Frank; Boschi, Robert

    2014-06-01

    The Ghil-Sellers model, a diffusive one-dimensional energy balance model of Earth's climate, features—for a considerable range of the parameter descriptive of the intensity of the incoming radiation—two stable climate states, where the bistability results from the celebrated ice-albedo feedback. The warm state is qualitatively similar to the present climate, while the cold state corresponds to snowball conditions. Additionally, in the region of bistability, one can find unstable climate states. We find such unstable states by applying for the first time in a geophysical context the so-called edge tracking method, which has been used for studying multiple coexisting states in shear flows. This method has a great potential for studying the global instabilities in multistable systems, and for providing crucial information on the possibility of transitions when forcing is present. We examine robustness, efficiency, and accuracy properties of the edge tracking algorithm. We find that the procedure is the most efficient when taking a single bisection per cycle. Due to the strong diffusivity of the system, the transient dynamics, is approximately confined to the heteroclininc trajectory, connecting the fixed unstable and stable states, after relatively short transient times. Such a constraint dictates a functional relationship between observables. We characterize such a relationship between the global average temperature and a descriptor of nonequilibrium thermodynamics, the large scale temperature gradient between low and high latitudes. We find that a maximum of the temperature gradient is realized at the same value of the average temperature, about 270 K, largely independent of the strength of incoming solar radiation. Due to this maximum, a transient increase and nonmonotonic evolution of the temperature gradient is possible and not untypical. We also examine the structural properties of the system defined by bifurcation diagrams describing the equilibria

  17. Ocean General Circulation From a Global Eddy-Resolving Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Semtner, Albert J.; Chervin, Robert M.

    1992-04-01

    A concerted effort has been made to simulate the global ocean circulation with resolved eddies, using a highly optimized model on the best available supercomputer. An earlier 20-year spin-up has been extended for 12.5 additional years: the first 2.5 with continued annual mean forcing and the final 10.0 with climatological monthly forcing. Model output archived at 3-day intervals has been analyzed into mean fields, standard deviations, products, and covariances on monthly, annual, and multiyear time scales. The multiyear results are examined here in order to give insight into the general circulation of the world ocean. The three-dimensional flow fields of the model are quite realistic, even though resolution of eddies in high latitudes is marginal with a 0.5°, 20-level grid. The use of seasonal forcing improves the simulation, especially in the tropics and high northern latitudes. Mid-latitude gyre circulations, western boundary currents, zonal equatorial flows, and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) all show mean and eddy characteristics similar to those observed. There is also some indication of eddy intensification of the mean flow of the ACC and of separated boundary jets. A global thermohaline circulation of North Atlantic Deep Water is identified in deep western boundary currents connected by the ACC. This deep circulation rises mainly in the equatorial Pacific. Several zonal jets are an integral part of this circulation near the equator. The deep flow rises toward the surface in a series of switchbacks. Much of the thermohaline return flow then follows an eddy-rich warm-water route through the Indonesian archipelago and around the southern tip of Africa. However, some intermediate level portions of the thermohaline circulation return south into the ACC and follow a cold water route through the Drake Passage. The representation of a global "conveyor belt" circulation with narrow and relatively high-speed currents along most of its path may be the most

  18. GRAM-86 - FOUR DIMENSIONAL GLOBAL REFERENCE ATMOSPHERE MODEL

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson, D.

    1994-01-01

    The Four-D Global Reference Atmosphere program was developed from an empirical atmospheric model which generates values for pressure, density, temperature, and winds from surface level to orbital altitudes. This program can be used to generate altitude profiles of atmospheric parameters along any simulated trajectory through the atmosphere. The program was developed for design applications in the Space Shuttle program, such as the simulation of external tank re-entry trajectories. Other potential applications would be global circulation and diffusion studies, and generating profiles for comparison with other atmospheric measurement techniques, such as satellite measured temperature profiles and infrasonic measurement of wind profiles. The program is an amalgamation of two empirical atmospheric models for the low (25km) and the high (90km) atmosphere, with a newly developed latitude-longitude dependent model for the middle atmosphere. The high atmospheric region above 115km is simulated entirely by the Jacchia (1970) model. The Jacchia program sections are in separate subroutines so that other thermosphericexospheric models could easily be adapted if required for special applications. The atmospheric region between 30km and 90km is simulated by a latitude-longitude dependent empirical model modification of the latitude dependent empirical model of Groves (1971). Between 90km and 115km a smooth transition between the modified Groves values and the Jacchia values is accomplished by a fairing technique. Below 25km the atmospheric parameters are computed by the 4-D worldwide atmospheric model of Spiegler and Fowler (1972). This data set is not included. Between 25km and 30km an interpolation scheme is used between the 4-D results and the modified Groves values. The output parameters consist of components for: (1) latitude, longitude, and altitude dependent monthly and annual means, (2) quasi-biennial oscillations (QBO), and (3) random perturbations to partially simulate

  19. Evaluating groundwater depletion as computed by a global water model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schuh, Carina; Doell, Petra; Mueller Schmied, Hannes; Portmann, Felix

    2013-04-01

    When groundwater abstraction occurs faster than its replenishment over a long time and in a large area, the result is an overexploitation or depletion of groundwater. The problem is aggravated in areas where a growing population relies on freshwater resources for an intensive irrigation agriculture that is meant to guarantee food security. Especially in semi-arid and arid regions, the dominant use for groundwater is irrigation, reaching more than 95% of total water use. Therefore, the hot spots for groundwater depletion are the world's major irrigation areas like the central United States, north-western India and north China. Groundwater depletion presents a major threat to securing agricultural productivity and domestic water supply in these parts of the world. Besides, the environmental consequences that accompany the abstraction of groundwater are severe. Within the scientific community there is a common understanding that high-quality data on globally existing groundwater resources are deficient. In order to allow a sustainable management of the world's available groundwater resources, especially in areas under current water stress, the quantification of groundwater depletion is of high importance. WaterGAP (Water - Global Assessment and Prognosis) is a global model of water availability and water use which can serve to estimate the impact of groundwater and surface water withdrawals on groundwater storage. The new WaterGAP version 2.2a was modified to allow for an improved analysis of groundwater storage changes in semi-arid and arid regions. Now, groundwater recharge from surface water bodies is simulated in semi-arid and arid areas. Estimation of net groundwater abstractions was modified with respect of irrigation water use efficiency for groundwater and return flow fractions. In addition, irrigation consumptive use has been set to 70% of optimal irrigation consumptive use, assuming deficit irrigation to prevail in these parts of the world. Based on time

  20. Gridded global surface ozone metrics for atmospheric chemistry model evaluation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sofen, E. D.; Bowdalo, D.; Evans, M. J.; Apadula, F.; Bonasoni, P.; Cupeiro, M.; Ellul, R.; Galbally, I. E.; Girgzdiene, R.; Luppo, S.; Mimouni, M.; Nahas, A. C.; Saliba, M.; Tørseth, K.

    2016-02-01

    The concentration of ozone at the Earth's surface is measured at many locations across the globe for the purposes of air quality monitoring and atmospheric chemistry research. We have brought together all publicly available surface ozone observations from online databases from the modern era to build a consistent data set for the evaluation of chemical transport and chemistry-climate (Earth System) models for projects such as the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative and Aer-Chem-MIP. From a total data set of approximately 6600 sites and 500 million hourly observations from 1971-2015, approximately 2200 sites and 200 million hourly observations pass screening as high-quality sites in regionally representative locations that are appropriate for use in global model evaluation. There is generally good data volume since the start of air quality monitoring networks in 1990 through 2013. Ozone observations are biased heavily toward North America and Europe with sparse coverage over the rest of the globe. This data set is made available for the purposes of model evaluation as a set of gridded metrics intended to describe the distribution of ozone concentrations on monthly and annual timescales. Metrics include the moments of the distribution, percentiles, maximum daily 8-hour average (MDA8), sum of means over 35 ppb (daily maximum 8-h; SOMO35), accumulated ozone exposure above a threshold of 40 ppbv (AOT40), and metrics related to air quality regulatory thresholds. Gridded data sets are stored as netCDF-4 files and are available to download from the British Atmospheric Data Centre (doi: 10.5285/08fbe63d-fa6d-4a7a-b952-5932e3ab0452). We provide recommendations to the ozone measurement community regarding improving metadata reporting to simplify ongoing and future efforts in working with ozone data from disparate networks in a consistent manner.

  1. Gridded global surface ozone metrics for atmospheric chemistry model evaluation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sofen, E. D.; Bowdalo, D.; Evans, M. J.; Apadula, F.; Bonasoni, P.; Cupeiro, M.; Ellul, R.; Galbally, I. E.; Girgzdiene, R.; Luppo, S.; Mimouni, M.; Nahas, A. C.; Saliba, M.; Tørseth, K.; Wmo Gaw, Epa Aqs, Epa Castnet, Capmon, Naps, Airbase, Emep, Eanet Ozone Datasets, All Other Contributors To

    2015-07-01

    The concentration of ozone at the Earth's surface is measured at many locations across the globe for the purposes of air quality monitoring and atmospheric chemistry research. We have brought together all publicly available surface ozone observations from online databases from the modern era to build a consistent dataset for the evaluation of chemical transport and chemistry-climate (Earth System) models for projects such as the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative and Aer-Chem-MIP. From a total dataset of approximately 6600 sites and 500 million hourly observations from 1971-2015, approximately 2200 sites and 200 million hourly observations pass screening as high-quality sites in regional background locations that are appropriate for use in global model evaluation. There is generally good data volume since the start of air quality monitoring networks in 1990 through 2013. Ozone observations are biased heavily toward North America and Europe with sparse coverage over the rest of the globe. This dataset is made available for the purposes of model evaluation as a set of gridded metrics intended to describe the distribution of ozone concentrations on monthly and annual timescales. Metrics include the moments of the distribution, percentiles, maximum daily eight-hour average (MDA8), SOMO35, AOT40, and metrics related to air quality regulatory thresholds. Gridded datasets are stored as netCDF-4 files and are available to download from the British Atmospheric Data Centre (doi:10.5285/08fbe63d-fa6d-4a7a-b952-5932e3ab0452). We provide recommendations to the ozone measurement community regarding improving metadata reporting to simplify ongoing and future efforts in working with ozone data from disparate networks in a consistent manner.

  2. Lagrangian modeling of global atmospheric methane (1990-2012)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arfeuille, Florian; Henne, Stephan; Brunner, Dominik

    2016-04-01

    In the MAIOLICA-II project, the lagrangian particle model FLEXPART is used to simulate the global atmospheric methane over the 1990-2012 period. In this lagrangian framework, 3 million particles are permanently transported based on winds from ERA-interim. The history of individual particles can be followed allowing for a comprehensive analysis of transport pathways and timescales. The link between sources (emissions) and receptors (measurement stations) is then established in a straightforward manner, a prerequisite for source inversion problems. FLEXPART was extended to incorporate the methane loss by reaction with OH, soil uptake and stratospheric loss reactions with prescribed Cl and O(1d) radicals. Sources are separated into 245 different tracers, depending on source origin (anthropogenic, wetlands, rice, biomass burning, termites, wild animals, oceans, volcanoes), region of emission, and time since emission (5 age classes). The inversion method applied is a fixed-lag Kalman smoother similar to that described in Bruhwiler et al. [2005]. Results from the FLEXPART global methane simulation and from the subsequent inversion will be presented. Results notably suggest: - A reduction in methane growth rates due to diminished wetland emissions and anthropogenic European emission in 1990-1993. - A second decrease in 1995-1996 is also mainly attributed to these two emission categories. - A reduced increase in Chinese anthropogenic emissions after 2003 compared to EDGAR inventories. - Large South American wetlands emissions during the entire period. Bruhwiler, L. M. P., Michalak, A. M., Peters, W., Baker, D. F. & Tans, P. 2005: An improved Kalman smoother fore atmospheric inversions, Atmos Chem Phys, 5, 2691-2702.

  3. Towards a Global Evolutionary Model of Protoplanetary Disks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bai, Xue-Ning

    2016-04-01

    A global picture of the evolution of protoplanetary disks (PPDs) is key to understanding almost every aspect of planet formation, where standard α-disk models have been continually employed for their simplicity. In the meantime, disk mass loss has been conventionally attributed to photoevaporation, which controls disk dispersal. However, a paradigm shift toward accretion driven by magnetized disk winds has taken place in recent years, thanks to studies of non-ideal magnetohydrodynamic effects in PPDs. I present a framework of global PPD evolution aiming to incorporate these advances, highlighting the role of wind-driven accretion and wind mass loss. Disk evolution is found to be largely dominated by wind-driven processes, and viscous spreading is suppressed. The timescale of disk evolution is controlled primarily by the amount of external magnetic flux threading the disks, and how rapidly the disk loses the flux. Rapid disk dispersal can be achieved if the disk is able to hold most of its magnetic flux during the evolution. In addition, because wind launching requires a sufficient level of ionization at the disk surface (mainly via external far-UV (FUV) radiation), wind kinematics is also affected by the FUV penetration depth and disk geometry. For a typical disk lifetime of a few million years, the disk loses approximately the same amount of mass through the wind as through accretion onto the protostar, and most of the wind mass loss proceeds from the outer disk via a slow wind. Fractional wind mass loss increases with increasing disk lifetime. Significant wind mass loss likely substantially enhances the dust-to-gas mass ratio and promotes planet formation.

  4. Model-based redesign of global transcription regulation

    PubMed Central

    Carrera, Javier; Rodrigo, Guillermo; Jaramillo, Alfonso

    2009-01-01

    Synthetic biology aims to the design or redesign of biological systems. In particular, one possible goal could be the rewiring of the transcription regulation network by exchanging the endogenous promoters. To achieve this objective, we have adapted current methods to the inference of a model based on ordinary differential equations that is able to predict the network response after a major change in its topology. Our procedure utilizes microarray data for training. We have experimentally validated our inferred global regulatory model in Escherichia coli by predicting transcriptomic profiles under new perturbations. We have also tested our methodology in silico by providing accurate predictions of the underlying networks from expression data generated with artificial genomes. In addition, we have shown the predictive power of our methodology by obtaining the gene profile in experimental redesigns of the E. coli genome, where rewiring the transcriptional network by means of knockouts of master regulators or by upregulating transcription factors controlled by different promoters. Our approach is compatible with most network inference methods, allowing to explore computationally future genome-wide redesign experiments in synthetic biology. PMID:19188257

  5. Global asymptotic stability of plant-seed bank models.

    PubMed

    Eager, Eric Alan; Rebarber, Richard; Tenhumberg, Brigitte

    2014-07-01

    Many plant populations have persistent seed banks, which consist of viable seeds that remain dormant in the soil for many years. Seed banks are important for plant population dynamics because they buffer against environmental perturbations and reduce the probability of extinction. Viability of the seeds in the seed bank can depend on the seed's age, hence it is important to keep track of the age distribution of seeds in the seed bank. In this paper we construct a general density-dependent plant-seed bank model where the seed bank is age-structured. We consider density dependence in both seedling establishment and seed production, since previous work has highlighted that overcrowding can suppress both of these processes. Under certain assumptions on the density dependence, we prove that there is a globally stable equilibrium population vector which is independent of the initial state. We derive an analytical formula for the equilibrium population using methods from feedback control theory. We apply these results to a model for the plant species Cirsium palustre and its seed bank.

  6. Choosing an adequate FEM grid for global mantle convection modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thieulot, Cedric

    2016-04-01

    Global numerical models of mantle convection are typically run on a grid which represents a hollow sphere. In the context of using the Finite Element method, there are many ways to discretise a hollow sphere by means of cuboids in a regular fashion (adaptive mesh refinement is here not considered). I will here focus on the following two: the cubed sphere [1], which is a quasi-uniform mapping of a cube to a sphere (considering both equidistant and equiangular projections), and the 12-block grid used for instance in CITCOM [2]. By means of simple experiments, I will show that at comparable resolutions (and all other things being equal), the 12-block grid is surprisingly vastly superior to the cubed-sphere grid, when used in combination with trilinear velocity - constant pressure elements, while being more difficult to build/implement. [1] C. Ronchi, R. Iacono, and P. S. Paolucci, The "Cubed Sphere": A New Method for the Solution of Partial Differential Equations in Spherical Geometry, Journal of Computational Physics, 124, p93-114 (1996). [2] S. Zhong and M.T. Zuber and L.N. Moresi and M. Gurnis, Role of temperature-dependent viscosity and surface plates in spherical shell models of mantle convection, Journal of Geophysical Research, 105 (B5), p 11,063-11,082 (2000).

  7. Modeling the global positioning system signal propagation through the ionosphere

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bassiri, S.; Hajj, G. A.

    1992-01-01

    Based on realistic modeling of the electron density of the ionosphere and using a dipole moment approximation for the Earth's magnetic field, one is able to estimate the effect of the ionosphere on the Global Positioning System (GPS) signal for a ground user. The lowest order effect, which is on the order of 0.1-100 m of group delay, is subtracted out by forming a linear combination of the dual frequencies of the GPS signal. One is left with second- and third-order effects that are estimated typically to be approximately 0-2 cm and approximately 0-2 mm at zenith, respectively, depending on the geographical location, the time of day, the time of year, the solar cycle, and the relative geometry of the magnetic field and the line of sight. Given the total electron content along a line of sight, the authors derive an approximation to the second-order term which is accurate to approximately 90 percent within the magnetic dipole moment model; this approximation can be used to reduce the second-order term to the millimeter level, thus potentially improving precise positioning in space and on the ground. The induced group delay, or phase advance, due to second- and third-order effects is examined for two ground receivers located at equatorial and mid-latitude regions tracking several GPS satellites.

  8. Global model of an iodine gridded plasma thruster

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grondein, P.; Lafleur, T.; Chabert, P.; Aanesland, A.

    2016-03-01

    Most state-of-the-art electric space propulsion systems such as gridded and Hall effect thrusters use xenon as the propellant gas. However, xenon is very rare, expensive to produce, and used in a number of competing industrial applications. Alternatives to xenon are currently being investigated, and iodine has emerged as a potential candidate. Its lower cost and larger availability, its solid state at standard temperature and pressure, its low vapour pressure and its low ionization potential make it an attractive option. In this work, we compare the performances of a gridded ion thruster operating separately with iodine and xenon, under otherwise identical conditions using a global model. The thruster discharge properties such as neutral, ion, and electron densities and electron temperature are calculated, as well as the thruster performance parameters such as thrust, specific impulse, and system efficiencies. For similar operating conditions, representative of realistic thrusters, the model predicts similar thrust levels and performances for both iodine and xenon. The thruster efficiency is however slightly higher for iodine compared with xenon, due to its lower ionization potential. This demonstrates that iodine could be a viable alternative propellant for gridded plasma thrusters.

  9. Modeling of Urban Heat Island at Global Scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    KC, B.; Ruth, M.

    2015-12-01

    Urban Heat Island (UHI) is the temperature difference between urban and its rural background temperature. At the local level, the choice of building materials and urban geometry are vital in determining the UHI magnitude of a city. At the city scale, economic growth, population, climate, and land use dynamics are the main drivers behind changes in UHIs. The main objective of this paper is to provide a comprehensive assessment of UHI based on these "macro variables" at regional and global scale. We based our analysis on published research for Europe, North America, and Asia, reporting data for 83 cities across the globe with unique climatic, economic, and environmental conditions. Exploratory data analysis including Pearson correlation was performed to explore the relationship between UHI and PM2.5 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤5 microns), PM10 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤10 microns), vegetation per capita, built area, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), population density and population. Additionally, dummy variables were used to capture potential influences of climate types (based on Koppen classifications) and the ways by which UHI was measured. We developed three linear regression models, one for each of the three continents (Asia, Europe, and North America) and one model for all the cities across these continents. This study provides a unique perspective for predicting UHI magnitudes at large scales based on economic activity and pollution levels of a city, which has important implications in urban planning.

  10. A Global Flood Model in the Context of the Global Assessment Report 2015: methodology presentation and discussion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rudari, Roberto; Campo, Lorenzo; Silvestro, Francesco; Herold, Christian

    2015-04-01

    The Global Assessment Report (GAR) is a major initiative of the UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR). It contributes to the achievement of the Hyogo Framework of Action (HFA) through monitoring risk patterns and trends and progress in disaster risk reduction and by providing guidance, to governments and non-governmental actors alike, on why and how they can, together, reduce disaster risks. Among its goals is an enhanced Global Risk Model, addressing gaps in current knowledge on risk patterns and trends and providing accurate and credible information for the global disaster risk reduction community. Within this goal the present work aimed at improving the Global Flood Model. The contribution will focus on the Hazard maps definition starting form a combination of stream-flow gauges frequency analysis and Hydrologic-hydraulic modelling. The Hazard maps produced by the Global Flood Model are not considering flood defences and are therefore not suitable as such for risk parameters computations; a post-processing procedure to consider flood defences is proposed and applied. The Hazard maps are then used to produce a full set of Possible Flood scenarios in order to compute PML curves. Results are discussed with reference to some example countries highlighting advantages and limitations of the approach undertaken.

  11. Modeling selective pressures on phytoplankton in the global ocean.

    PubMed

    Bragg, Jason G; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie; Jahn, Oliver; Follows, Michael J; Chisholm, Sallie W

    2010-01-01

    Our view of marine microbes is transforming, as culture-independent methods facilitate rapid characterization of microbial diversity. It is difficult to assimilate this information into our understanding of marine microbe ecology and evolution, because their distributions, traits, and genomes are shaped by forces that are complex and dynamic. Here we incorporate diverse forces--physical, biogeochemical, ecological, and mutational--into a global ocean model to study selective pressures on a simple trait in a widely distributed lineage of picophytoplankton: the nitrogen use abilities of Synechococcus and Prochlorococcus cyanobacteria. Some Prochlorococcus ecotypes have lost the ability to use nitrate, whereas their close relatives, marine Synechococcus, typically retain it. We impose mutations for the loss of nitrogen use abilities in modeled picophytoplankton, and ask: in which parts of the ocean are mutants most disadvantaged by losing the ability to use nitrate, and in which parts are they least disadvantaged? Our model predicts that this selective disadvantage is smallest for picophytoplankton that live in tropical regions where Prochlorococcus are abundant in the real ocean. Conversely, the selective disadvantage of losing the ability to use nitrate is larger for modeled picophytoplankton that live at higher latitudes, where Synechococcus are abundant. In regions where we expect Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus populations to cycle seasonally in the real ocean, we find that model ecotypes with seasonal population dynamics similar to Prochlorococcus are less disadvantaged by losing the ability to use nitrate than model ecotypes with seasonal population dynamics similar to Synechococcus. The model predictions for the selective advantage associated with nitrate use are broadly consistent with the distribution of this ability among marine picocyanobacteria, and at finer scales, can provide insights into interactions between temporally varying ocean processes and

  12. Treatment of Solar and Thermal Radiation in Global Climate Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lacis, A. A.; Oinas, V.

    2015-12-01

    response to structural changes that occur in the global environment. In addition, the radiation model fulfills a diagnostic and analysis role in providing spectral information for making model performance comparisons to observational data, and for enabling quantitative attribution of radiative forcing and feedback changes.

  13. An empirical model for probabilistic decadal prediction: A global analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Suckling, Emma; Hawkins, Ed; Eden, Jonathan; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan

    2016-04-01

    Empirical models, designed to predict land-based surface variables over seasons to decades ahead, provide useful benchmarks for comparison against the performance of dynamical forecast systems; they may also be employable as predictive tools for use by climate services in their own right. A new global empirical decadal prediction system is presented, based on a multiple linear regression approach designed to produce probabilistic output for comparison against dynamical models. Its performance is evaluated for surface air temperature over a set of historical hindcast experiments under a series of different prediction `modes'. The modes include a real-time setting, a scenario in which future volcanic forcings are prescribed during the hindcasts, and an approach which exploits knowledge of the forced trend. A two-tier prediction system, which uses knowledge of future sea surface temperatures in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, is also tested, but within a perfect knowledge framework. Each mode is designed to identify sources of predictability and uncertainty, as well as investigate different approaches to the design of decadal prediction systems for operational use. It is found that the empirical model shows skill above that of persistence hindcasts for annual means at lead times of up to ten years ahead in all of the prediction modes investigated. Small improvements in skill are found at all lead times when including future volcanic forcings in the hindcasts. It is also suggested that hindcasts which exploit full knowledge of the forced trend due to increasing greenhouse gases throughout the hindcast period can provide more robust estimates of model bias for the calibration of the empirical model in an operational setting. The two-tier system shows potential for improved real-time prediction, given the assumption that skilful predictions of large-scale modes of variability are available. The empirical model framework has been designed with enough flexibility to

  14. Students' Levels of Understanding Models and Modelling in Biology: Global or Aspect-Dependent?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Krell, Moritz; Upmeier zu Belzen, Annette; Krüger, Dirk

    2014-01-01

    It is argued that knowledge about models is an important part of a profound understanding of Nature of Science. Consequently, researchers have developed different "levels of understanding" to analyse students', teachers', or experts' comprehension of this topic. In some approaches, "global" levels of…

  15. Impact of Urban Density Type in a Global Climate Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bogart, T.

    2014-12-01

    The recent inclusion of an urban land model within a large-scale global climate model has allowed for a more realistic representation of the Earth's surface, aiding in a better understanding of land cover and climate relationships. This research uses the NCAR Community Climate System Model version 4.0 (CCSM4.0) with the land component, the Community Land Model version 4.0 (CLM4.0), coupled with the atmospheric component, the Community Atmosphere Model version 4.0 (CAM4). Although the urban land type is a sub-grid phenomena that rarely occupies more than half of a grid cell at the 1° by 1° scale, significant changes in basic climate variables are present in some regions. These changes are primarily seen where a denser network of grid cells exist with an urban presence. Seasonality to the urban influence also exists with the transition months of Spring and Fall having the largest difference in temperatures. Additional relationships beyond the present day urban land cover and climate are investigated. By setting all urban land cover to only one urban density type, the importance of city composition on climate, even within the same city, is highlighted. While preserving the distinct urban regional characteristics and the geographical distribution of urbanized areas, the model is run with homogeneous urban types: high density and tall building district. Although it is unrealistic to assume any of these regions will ever be completely covered with either high density or tall building district density types, it is reasonable to say that the ratio of high density and tall building district areas may increase as population continues to increase. As with the default urban and excluded urban runs, there is strong seasonality to the differences between the all high density, the all tall building district, and default urban simulations. Overall, the transition and winter months are most sensitive to changes in urban density type. The dramatic increases in waste heat

  16. Quasi-Stationary Global Auroral Ionospheric Model: E-layer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nikolaeva, Vera; Gordeev, Evgeny; Kotikov, Andrey; Makarova, Ludmila; Shirochkov, Aleksander

    2014-05-01

    E-layer Auroral Ionospheric Model (E-AIM) is developed to provide temporal and spatial density distribution of the main ionosphere neutral species (NO, N(4S),N(2D)), and ions (N2+, NO+,O2+,O+) in the altitude range from 90 to 150 km. NRLMSISE-00 model [Picone et al., JGR 2003] is used for neutral atmosphere content and temperature determination, that is the input for the E-AIM model. The E-AIM model based on chemical equilibrium state in E-layer that reaches in chemical reactions between ionospheric species considering solar radiation ionization source, superposed with sporadic precipitation of magnetospheric electrons. The chemical equilibrium state in each location under specific solar and geomagnetic activity conditions reaches during numerical solution of the continuity equations for the neutrals and ions using the high-performance Gear method [Gear, 1971] for ordinary differential equation (ODE) systems. Applying the Gear method for solving stiff ODE system strongly reduce the computation time and machine resources comparing to widely used methods and provide an opportunity to calculate the global spatial E-layer ion content distribution. In contrast to the mid-latitude ionosphere, structure and dynamics of the auroral zone ionosphere (φ ≡ 60-75° MLat) associated not only with shortwave solar radiation. Precipitating magnetospheric particle flux is the most important ionization source and is the main cause of E-layer disturbances. Precipitated electrons with initial energies of 1 - 30 keV influence the auroral ionosphere E-layer. E-AIM model can estimate ionization rate corresponds to auroral electron precipitation in two different ways: 1. with direct electron flux satellite data; 2. with differential energy spectrum reconstructed from OVATION-Prime empirical model [Newell, JGR 2009] average values, that allows to estimate ionosphere ion content for any time and location in the auroral zone. Comparison of E-AIM results with direct ionospheric observations

  17. Low-pressure hydrogen plasmas explored using a global model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Samuell, Cameron M.; Corr, Cormac S.

    2016-02-01

    Low-pressure hydrogen plasmas have found applications in a variety of technology areas including fusion, neutral beam injection and material processing applications. To better understand these discharges, a global model is developed to predict the behaviour of electrons, ground-state atomic and molecular hydrogen, three positive ion species (H+, \\text{H}2+ , and \\text{H}3+ ), a single negative ion species (H-), and fourteen vibrationally excited states of molecular hydrogen ({{\\text{H}}2}≤ft(\\upsilon =1\\right. -14)). The model is validated by comparison with experimental results from a planar inductively coupled GEC reference cell and subsequently applied to the MAGPIE linear helicon reactor. The MAGPIE reactor is investigated for a range of pressures from 1 to 100 mTorr and powers up to 5 kW. With increasing power between 50 W and 5 kW at 10 mTorr the density of all charged species increases as well as the dissociative fraction while the electron temperature remains almost constant at around 3 eV. For gas pressures from 1-100 mTorr at an input power of 1 kW, the electron density remains almost constant, the electron temperature and dissociative fraction decreases, while \\text{H}3+ density increases in density and also dominates amongst ion species. Across these power and pressure scans, electronegativity remains approximately constant at around 2.5%. The power and pressure determines the dominant ion species in the plasma with \\text{H}3+ observed to dominate at high pressures and low powers whereas H+ tends to be dominant at low pressures and high powers. A sensitivity analysis is used to demonstrate how experimental parameters (power, pressure, reactor wall material, geometry etc) influence individual species’ density as well as the electron temperature. Physical reactor changes including the length, radius and wall recombination coefficient are found to have the largest influence on outputs obtained from the model.

  18. Tropospheric energy cascades in a global circulation model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brune, Sebastian; Becker, Erich

    2010-05-01

    The global horizontal kinetic energy (KE) spectrum and its budget are analyzed using results from a mechanistic GCM. The model has a standard spectral dynamical core with very high vertikal resolution up to the middle stratosphere (T330/L100). As a turbulence model we combine the Smagorinsky scheme with an energy conserving hyperdiffusion that is applied for the very smallest resolved scales. The simulation confirms a slope of the KE spectrum close to -3 in the synoptic regime where the KE is dominated by vortical modes. Towards the mesoscales the spectrum flattens and assumes a slope close to -5/3. Here divergent modes become increasingly important and even dominate the KE. Our complete analysis of the sinks and sources in the spectral KE budget reveals the overall energy fluxes through the spectrum. For the upper troposphere, the change of KE due to horizontal advection is negative for large synoptic scales. It is positive for the planetary scale, as expected, and for the mesoscales as well. This implies that the mesoscales, which include the dynamical sources of tropospheric gravity waves, are in fact sustained by the energy injection at the baroclinic scale (forward energy cascade). We find an enstrophy cascade in accordance with 2D turbulence, but zero downscaling of energy due to the vortical modes alone. In other words, the forward energy cascade in the synoptic and mesoscale regime is solely due to the divergent modes and their nonlinear interaction with the vortical modes. This picture, derived form a mechanistic model, not only lends further evidence for a generally forward energy cascade in the upper tropospheric away from the baroclinic scale. It also extends the picture proposed earlier by Tung and Orlando: The transition from a -3 to a -5/3 slope in the tropospheric macroturbulence spectrum reflects the fact, that the energy cascade due to the horizontally divergent (3D) modes is hidden behind the (2D) enstrophy cascade in the synoptic regime but

  19. Using Global MHD Models to Interpret STEREO Observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Riley, P.; Mikic, Z.; Linker, J. A.; Odstrcil, D.; Luhmann, J. G.; Vourlidas, A.

    2007-12-01

    The STEREO mission presents a unique opportunity to combine both remote and in situ observations from multiple vantage points, and, in particular, to provide simultaneous limb and disk-centered observations. In spite of this wealth of data, the system remains remarkably under-sampled, and reconstructing 3-D structure from the observations remains a formidable task. In this presentation we use global MHD models, which reproduce the eruption and evolution of specific CME events through the corona and past the orbit of Earth, to explore the relationship between the various remote sensing and in situ observations that would be seen at the two STEREO spacecraft. These simulations were developed as part of our contribution to NASA's Living With a Star TR&T focused science topic on the relationship between ICMEs and their solar sources. Our model, which incorporates coronal heating, thermal conduction, and radiation, is capable of reproducing a wide variety of measurements, ranging from (polarized) brightness and emission images to in situ time series of magnetic and plasma parameters. Moreover, we can construct quantities that are either not directly observable, or can only be inferred locally, such as the Alfven speed, the location of the heliospheric current sheet, and the three-dimensional topology of the magnetic field. We believe that the combination of sophisticated modeling results and the exciting new measurements from the STEREO mission will allow us to address fundamental questions concerning the origin and evolution of CMEs, ultimately allowing us to develop predictive capabilities related to their potential to generate space weather effects.

  20. Global and Regional Ecosystem Modeling: Databases of Model Drivers and Validation Measurements

    SciTech Connect

    Olson, R.J.

    2002-03-19

    Understanding global-scale ecosystem responses to changing environmental conditions is important both as a scientific question and as the basis for making policy decisions. The confidence in regional models depends on how well the field data used to develop the model represent the region of interest, how well the environmental model driving variables (e.g., vegetation type, climate, and soils associated with a site used to parameterize ecosystem models) represent the region of interest, and how well regional model predictions agree with observed data for the region. To assess the accuracy of global model forecasts of terrestrial carbon cycling, two Ecosystem Model-Data Intercomparison (EMDI) workshops were held (December 1999 and April 2001). The workshops included 17 biogeochemical, satellite-driven, detailed process, and dynamic vegetation global model types. The approach was to run regional or global versions of the models for sites with net primary productivity (NPP) measurements (i.e., not fine-tuned for specific site conditions) and analyze the model-data differences. Extensive worldwide NPP data were assembled with model driver data, including vegetation, climate, and soils data, to perform the intercomparison. This report describes the compilation of NPP estimates for 2,523 sites and 5,164 0.5{sup o}-grid cells under the Global Primary Production Data Initiative (GPPDI) and the results of the EMDI review and outlier analysis that produced a refined set of NPP estimates and model driver data. The EMDI process resulted in 81 Class A sites, 933 Class B sites, and 3,855 Class C cells derived from the original synthesis of NPP measurements and associated driver data. Class A sites represent well-documented study sites that have complete aboveground and below ground NPP measurements. Class B sites represent more numerous ''extensive'' sites with less documentation and site-specific information available. Class C cells represent estimates of NPP for 0.5{sup o

  1. An improved global zenith tropospheric delay model GZTD2 considering diurnal variations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yao, Yibin; Hu, Yufeng; Yu, Chen; Zhang, Bao; Guo, Jianjian

    2016-05-01

    The zenith tropospheric delay (ZTD) is an important atmospheric parameter in the wide application of global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) technology in geoscience. Given that the temporal resolution of the current global zenith tropospheric delay model (GZTD) is only 24 h, an improved model, GZTD2, has been developed by taking the diurnal variations into consideration and modifying the model expansion function. The data set used to establish this model is the global ZTD grid data provided by Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS) Atmosphere spanning from 2002 to 2009. We validated the proposed model with respect to ZTD grid data from GGOS Atmosphere, which was not involved in modeling, as well as International GNSS Service (IGS) tropospheric product. The obtained results of ZTD grid data show that the global average bias and root mean square (rms) for the GZTD2 model are 0.2 and 3.8 cm, respectively. The global average bias is comparable to that of the GZTD model, but the global average rms is improved by 3 mm. The bias and rms are far better than the EGNOS model and the UNB series models. The testing results from global IGS tropospheric product show the bias and rms (-0.3 and 3.9 cm) of the GZTD2 model are superior to that of GZTD (-0.3 and 4.2 cm), suggesting higher accuracy and reliability compared to the EGNOS model, as well as the UNB series models.

  2. New Ganymede control point network and global shape model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zubarev, A.; Nadezhdina, I.; Oberst, J.; Hussmann, H.; Stark, A.

    2015-11-01

    We computed a 3D control point network for Ganymede using combinations of 126 Voyager-1 and -2 and 87 Galileo images, benefiting from reconstructed trajectory data for the three spacecraft and a more complete Galileo image data base than was available for earlier studies. Using more than 3000 control point coordinates, we determine global shape parameters, including mean radius, spheroid- and ellipsoidal axes, and make tests for various equilibrium shape models, constrained by the most recent estimates for gravity field parameters. We confirm that Ganymede has a pronounced ellipsoidal shape, approximately aligned with the Jupiter-direction, in agreement with Ganymede being in tidal equilibrium. The point heights, suffering from large individual errors, do not reveal any large-scale topography below our typical error levels (97% <5 km). By analysis of data residuals we search for, but cannot detect Ganymede longitudinal forced librations. We conclude that libration amplitudes cannot be larger than 0.1° (corresponding to a lateral displacement of 4.6 km at the equator).

  3. Understanding Solar Torsional Oscillations from Global Dynamo Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guerrero, G.; Smolarkiewicz, P. K.; de Gouveia Dal Pino, E. M.; Kosovichev, A. G.; Mansour, N. N.

    2016-09-01

    The phenomenon of solar “torsional oscillations” (TO) represents migratory zonal flows associated with the solar cycle. These flows are observed on the solar surface and, according to helioseismology, extend through the convection zone. We study the origin of the TO using results from a global MHD simulation of the solar interior that reproduces several of the observed characteristics of the mean-flows and magnetic fields. Our results indicate that the magnetic tension (MT) in the tachocline region is a key factor for the periodic changes in the angular momentum transport that causes the TO. The torque induced by the MT at the base of the convection zone is positive at the poles and negative at the equator. A rising MT torque at higher latitudes causes the poles to speed up, whereas a declining negative MT torque at the lower latitudes causes the equator to slow-down. These changes in the zonal flows propagate through the convection zone up to the surface. Additionally, our results suggest that it is the magnetic field at the tachocline that modulates the amplitude of the surface meridional flow rather than the opposite as assumed by flux-transport dynamo models of the solar cycle.

  4. [Mathematical model of the global carbon cycle in the biosphere].

    PubMed

    Tarko, A M

    2010-01-01

    Changes in the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, temperatures of the atmosphere, and parameters of land biota as a result of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions, forest clearance, and soil erosion are calculated in a spatial mathematical model of the global carbon cycle in the biosphere. Restrictions on the CO2 emissions to the atmosphere are deduced from the requirements of Kyoto Protocol to The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and other scenarios. An ability is revealed for the atmospheric CO2 concentration to grow fast, which arises from a number of emerging and developing countries with large population and high CO2 emission rates and which surpasses greatly the effect of growth retardation due to Kyoto Protocol. Those countries' role will become mostly apparent to the year of 2060 and later. Russia has shown to be in an exclusive position relative to other countries: ecosystems of its territory absorb more of the atmospheric carbon dioxide than does any other country, and the inductrial emissions from its territory are practically equal to the absorption by ecosystems.

  5. Utilization of Global Reference Atmosphere Model (GRAM) for shuttle entry

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Joosten, Kent

    1987-01-01

    At high latitudes, dispersions in values of density for the middle atmosphere from the Global Reference Atmosphere Model (GRAM) are observed to be large, particularly in the winter. Trajectories have been run from 28.5 deg to 98 deg. The critical part of the atmosphere for reentry is 250,000 to 270,000 ft. 250,000 ft is the altitude where the shuttle trajectory levels out. For ascending passes the critical region occurs near the equator. For descending entries the critical region is in northern latitudes. The computed trajectory is input to the GRAM, which computes means and deviations of atmospheric parameters at each point along the trajectory. There is little latitude dispersion for the ascending passes; the strongest source of deviations is seasonal; however, very wide seasonal and latitudinal deviations are exhibited for the descending passes at all orbital inclinations. For shuttle operations the problem is control to maintain the correct entry corridor and avoid either aerodynamic skipping or excessive heat loads.

  6. Improving models to predict phenological responses to global change

    SciTech Connect

    Richardson, Andrew D.

    2015-11-25

    The term phenology describes both the seasonal rhythms of plants and animals, and the study of these rhythms. Plant phenological processes, including, for example, when leaves emerge in the spring and change color in the autumn, are highly responsive to variation in weather (e.g. a warm vs. cold spring) as well as longer-term changes in climate (e.g. warming trends and changes in the timing and amount of rainfall). We conducted a study to investigate the phenological response of northern peatland communities to global change. Field work was conducted at the SPRUCE experiment in northern Minnesota, where we installed 10 digital cameras. Imagery from the cameras is being used to track shifts in plant phenology driven by elevated carbon dioxide and elevated temperature in the different SPRUCE experimental treatments. Camera imagery and derived products (“greenness”) is being posted in near-real time on a publicly available web page (http://phenocam.sr.unh.edu/webcam/gallery/). The images will provide a permanent visual record of the progression of the experiment over the next 10 years. Integrated with other measurements collected as part of the SPRUCE program, this study is providing insight into the degree to which phenology may mediate future shifts in carbon uptake and storage by peatland ecosystems. In the future, these data will be used to develop improved models of vegetation phenology, which will be tested against ground observations collected by a local collaborator.

  7. Incorporating grassland management in a global vegetation model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, Jinfeng; Viovy, Nicolas; Vuichard, Nicolas; Ciais, Philippe; Wang, Tao; Cozic, Anne; Lardy, Romain; Graux, Anne-Isabelle; Klumpp, Katja; Martin, Raphael; Soussana, Jean-François

    2013-04-01

    Grassland is a widespread vegetation type, covering nearly one-fifth of the world's land surface (24 million km2), and playing a significant role in the global carbon (C) cycle. Most of grasslands in Europe are cultivated to feed animals, either directly by grazing or indirectly by grass harvest (cutting). A better understanding of the C fluxes from grassland ecosystems in response to climate and management requires not only field experiments but also the aid of simulation models. ORCHIDEE process-based ecosystem model designed for large-scale applications treats grasslands as being unmanaged, where C / water fluxes are only subject to atmospheric CO2 and climate changes. Our study describes how management of grasslands is included in the ORCHIDEE, and how management affects modeled grassland-atmosphere CO2 fluxes. The new model, ORCHIDEE-GM (Grassland Management) is capable with a management module inspired from a grassland model (PaSim, version 5.0), of accounting for two grassland management practices (cutting and grazing). The evaluation of the results of ORCHIDEE-GM compared with those of ORCHIDEE at 11 European sites equipped with eddy covariance and biometric measurements, show that ORCHIDEE-GM can capture realistically the cut-induced seasonal variation in biometric variables (LAI: Leaf Area Index; AGB: Aboveground Biomass) and in CO2 fluxes (GPP: Gross Primary Productivity; TER: Total Ecosystem Respiration; and NEE: Net Ecosystem Exchange). But improvements at grazing sites are only marginal in ORCHIDEE-GM, which relates to the difficulty in accounting for continuous grazing disturbance and its induced complex animal-vegetation interactions. Both NEE and GPP on monthly to annual timescales can be better simulated in ORCHIDEE-GM than in ORCHIDEE without management. At some sites, the model-observation misfit in ORCHIDEE-GM is found to be more related to ill-constrained parameter values than to model structure. Additionally, ORCHIDEE-GM is able to simulate

  8. Early breakup of Gondwana: constraints from global plate motion models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seton, Maria; Zahirovic, Sabin; Williams, Simon; Whittaker, Joanne; Gibbons, Ana; Muller, Dietmar; Brune, Sascha; Heine, Christian

    2015-04-01

    Supercontinent break-up and amalgamation is a fundamental Earth cycle, contributing to long-term sea-level fluctuations, species diversity and extinction events, long-term greenhouse-icehouse cycles and changes in the long-wavelength density structure of the mantle. The most recent and best-constrained example involves the fragmentation of Gondwana, starting with rifting between Africa/Madagascar and Antarctica in the Early Jurassic and ending with the separation of the Lord Howe microcontinental blocks east of Australia in the Late Cretaceous. Although the first order configuration of Gondwana within modern reconstructions appears similar to that first proposed by Wegener a century ago, recent studies utilising a wealth of new geophysical and geological data provide a much more detailed picture of relative plate motions both during rifting and subsequent seafloor spreading. We present our latest global plate motion model that includes extensive, new regional analyses. These include: South Atlantic rifting, which started at 150 Ma and propagated into cratonic Africa by 145 Ma (Heine et al., 2013); rifting and early seafloor spreading between Australia, India and Antarctica, which reconciles the fit between Broken Ridge-Kergulean Plateau and the eastern Tasman region (Whittaker et al., 2013); rifting of continental material from northeastern Gondwana and its accretion onto Eurasia and SE Asia including a new model of microcontinent formation and early seafloor spreading in the eastern Indian Ocean (Gibbons et al., 2012; 2013; in review; Williams et al., 2013; Zahirovic et al., 2014); and a new model for the isolation of Zealandia east of Australia, with rifting initiating at 100 Ma until the start of seafloor spreading in the Tasman Sea at ~85 Ma (Williams et al., in prep). Using these reconstructions within the open-source GPlates software, accompanied by a set of evolving plates and plate boundaries, we can explore the factors that govern the behavior of plate

  9. GEM1: First-year modeling and IT activities for the Global Earthquake Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anderson, G.; Giardini, D.; Wiemer, S.

    2009-04-01

    GEM is a public-private partnership initiated by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) to build an independent standard for modeling and communicating earthquake risk worldwide. GEM is aimed at providing authoritative, open information about seismic risk and decision tools to support mitigation. GEM will also raise risk awareness and help post-disaster economic development, with the ultimate goal of reducing the toll of future earthquakes. GEM will provide a unified set of seismic hazard, risk, and loss modeling tools based on a common global IT infrastructure and consensus standards. These tools, systems, and standards will be developed in partnership with organizations around the world, with coordination by the GEM Secretariat and its Secretary General. GEM partners will develop a variety of global components, including a unified earthquake catalog, fault database, and ground motion prediction equations. To ensure broad representation and community acceptance, GEM will include local knowledge in all modeling activities, incorporate existing detailed models where possible, and independently test all resulting tools and models. When completed in five years, GEM will have a versatile, penly accessible modeling environment that can be updated as necessary, and will provide the global standard for seismic hazard, risk, and loss models to government ministers, scientists and engineers, financial institutions, and the public worldwide. GEM is now underway with key support provided by private sponsors (Munich Reinsurance Company, Zurich Financial Services, AIR Worldwide Corporation, and Willis Group Holdings); countries including Belgium, Germany, Italy, Singapore, Switzerland, and Turkey; and groups such as the European Commission. The GEM Secretariat has been selected by the OECD and will be hosted at the Eucentre at the University of Pavia in Italy; the Secretariat is now formalizing the creation of the GEM Foundation. Some of GEM's global

  10. a Global Model for Long-Range Interaction `DAMPING Functions'

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Myatt, Philip Thomas; McCourt, Frederick R. W.; Le Roy, Robert J.

    2016-06-01

    In recent years, `damping functions', which characterize the weakening of inverse-power-sum long-range interatomic interaction energies with increasing electron overlap, have become an increasing important component of models for diatomic molecule interaction potentials. However, a key feature of models for damping functions, their portability, has received little scrutiny. The present work set out to examine all available ab initio induction and dispersion damping function data and to attempt to devise a `global' scheme for diatomic molecule damping functions. It appears that while neutral (H, He, Li, and Ne, homonuclear and mixed) and anion (H^- with H, He and Li) species obey (approximately) one common rule, proton plus neutral (H^+ with H, He and Li) and non-proton-cation plus neutral systems (He^+ and Li^+ with H, He and Li), must each be treated separately. However, for all three cases, a version of the Douketis-Scoles-Thakkar (ionization potential)power factor is a key scaling parameter. R.J. Le Roy, C. C. Haugen, J. Tao and Hui Li, Mol. Phys. 109,435 (2011). P.J. Knowles and W.J. Meath,J. Mol. Phys. 60, 1143 (1987); R.J. Wheatley and W.J. Meath,J. Mol. Phys. 80, 25 (1993); R.J. Wheatley and W.J. Meath J. Chem. Phys. 179, 341 (1994); R.J. Wheatley and W.J. Meath,J. Chem. Phys. 203, 209 (1996). C. Douketis,G. Scoles, S. Marchetti, M. Zen and A. J. Thakkar, J. Chem. Phys. 76, 3057 (1982).

  11. Drought Duration Biases in Current Global Climate Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moon, Heewon; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Seneviratne, Sonia

    2016-04-01

    Several droughts in the recent past are characterized by their increased duration and intensity. In particular, substantially prolonged droughts have brought major societal and economic losses in certain regions, yet climate change projections of such droughts in terms of duration is subject to large uncertainties. This study analyzes the biases of drought duration in state-of-the-art global climate model (GCM) simulations from the 5th phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Drought durations are defined as negative precipitation anomalies and evaluated with three observation-based datasets in the period of 1901-2010. Large spread in biases of GCMs is commonly found in all regions, with particular strong biases in North East Brazil, Africa, Northern Australia, Central America, Central and Northern Europe, Sahel and Asia. Also in most regions, the interquartile range of bias lies below 0, meaning that the GCMs tend to underestimate drought durations. Meanwhile in some regions such as Western South America, the Amazon, Sahel, West and South Africa, and Asia, considerable inconsistency among the three observation-based datasets were found. These results indicate substantial uncertainties and errors in current GCMs for simulating drought durations as well as a large spread in observation-based datasets, both of which are found to be particularly strong in those regions that are often considered to be hot spots of projected future drying. The underlying sources of these uncertainties need to be identified in further study and will be applied to constrain GCM-based drought projections under climate change.

  12. Approach to equilibrium in accelerated global oceanic models

    SciTech Connect

    Danabasoglu, G.; McWilliams, J.C.; Large, W.G.

    1996-05-01

    The approach to equilibrium of a coarse-resolution, seasonally forced, global oceanic general circulation model is investigated, considering the effects of a widely used acceleration technique that distorts the dynamics by using unequal time steps in the governing equations. A measure of the equilibration time for any solution property is defined as the time it takes to go 90% of the way from its present value to its equilibrium value. This measure becomes approximately time invariant only after sufficiently long integration. It indicates that the total kinetic energy and most mass transport rates attain equilibrium within about 90 and 40 calendar years, respectively. The upper-ocean potential temperature and salinity equilibrium times are about 480 and 380 calender years, following 150- and 20-year initial adjustments, respectively. In the abyssal ocean, potential temperature and salinity equilibration take about 4500 and 3900 calender years, respectively. These longer equilibration times are due to the slow diffusion of tracers both along and across the isopycnal surfaces in stably stratified regions, and these times vary with the associated diffusivities. An analysis of synchronous (i.e., not accelerated) integrations shows that there is a complex interplay between convective, advective, and diffusive timescales. Because of the distortion by acceleration of the seasonal cycle, the solutions display some significant adjustments upon switching to synchronous integration. However, the proper seasonal cycle is recovered within five years. Provided that a sufficient equilibrium state has been achieved with acceleration, the model must be integrated synchronously for only about 15 years thereafter to closely approach synchronous equilibrium. 16 refs., 11 figs., 1 tab.

  13. An Empirical Cumulus Parameterization Scheme for a Global Spectral Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rajendran, K.; Krishnamurti, T. N.; Misra, V.; Tao, W.-K.

    2004-01-01

    Realistic vertical heating and drying profiles in a cumulus scheme is important for obtaining accurate weather forecasts. A new empirical cumulus parameterization scheme based on a procedure to improve the vertical distribution of heating and moistening over the tropics is developed. The empirical cumulus parameterization scheme (ECPS) utilizes profiles of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) based heating and moistening derived from the European Centre for Medium- Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis. A dimension reduction technique through rotated principal component analysis (RPCA) is performed on the vertical profiles of heating (Q1) and drying (Q2) over the convective regions of the tropics, to obtain the dominant modes of variability. Analysis suggests that most of the variance associated with the observed profiles can be explained by retaining the first three modes. The ECPS then applies a statistical approach in which Q1 and Q2 are expressed as a linear combination of the first three dominant principal components which distinctly explain variance in the troposphere as a function of the prevalent large-scale dynamics. The principal component (PC) score which quantifies the contribution of each PC to the corresponding loading profile is estimated through a multiple screening regression method which yields the PC score as a function of the large-scale variables. The profiles of Q1 and Q2 thus obtained are found to match well with the observed profiles. The impact of the ECPS is investigated in a series of short range (1-3 day) prediction experiments using the Florida State University global spectral model (FSUGSM, T126L14). Comparisons between short range ECPS forecasts and those with the modified Kuo scheme show a very marked improvement in the skill in ECPS forecasts. This improvement in the forecast skill with ECPS emphasizes the importance of incorporating realistic vertical distributions of heating and drying in the model cumulus scheme. This

  14. Local model of a scientific collaboration in physics network compared with the global model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roohi, A. A.; Shirazi, A. H.; Kargaran, A.; Jafari, G. R.

    2010-12-01

    We have constructed a collaboration network for physicists based in Iran working in different disciplines. By discussing properties like collaborators per author, shortest path, betweenness, and the concept of power in networks for this local model, and comparing with the global model, we understand how a developing country in the Middle East is contributing to the scientific growth in the world statistically. In this comparison, we found some properties of the local model which were not in accordance with the standard global society of science, which should be considered in developing the future policies. Our results show significant differences in factors like the degree and the diameter of the networks. Even though the diversity of disciplines is low in contrast with the rest of the world according to the diameter of networks, people are reluctant to collaborate as their degree shows.

  15. Joint modeling of lithosphere and mantle dynamics: Evaluation of constraints from global tomography models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Xinguo; Holt, William E.; Ghosh, Attreyee

    2015-12-01

    With the advances in technology, seismological theory, and data acquisition, a number of high-resolution seismic tomography models have been published. However, discrepancies between tomography models often arise from different theoretical treatments of seismic wave propagation, different inversion strategies, and different data sets. Using a fixed velocity-to-density scaling and a fixed radial viscosity profile, we compute global mantle flow models associated with the different tomography models and test the impact of these for explaining surface geophysical observations (geoid, dynamic topography, stress, and strain rates). We use the joint modeling of lithosphere and mantle dynamics approach of Ghosh and Holt (2012) to compute the full lithosphere stresses, except that we use HC for the mantle circulation model, which accounts for the primary flow-coupling features associated with density-driven mantle flow. Our results show that the seismic tomography models of S40RTS and SAW642AN provide a better match with surface observables on a global scale than other models tested. Both of these tomography models have important similarities, including upwellings located in Pacific, Eastern Africa, Iceland, and mid-ocean ridges in the Atlantic and Indian Ocean and downwelling flows mainly located beneath the Andes, the Middle East, and central and Southeast Asia.

  16. Global water resources modeling with an integrated model of the social-economic-environmental system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davies, Evan G. R.; Simonovic, Slobodan P.

    2011-06-01

    Awareness of increasing water scarcity has driven efforts to model global water resources for improved insight into water resources infrastructure and management strategies. Most water resources models focus explicitly on water systems and represent socio-economic and environmental change as external drivers. In contrast, the system dynamics-based integrated assessment model employed here, ANEMI, incorporates dynamic representations of these systems, so that their broader changes affect and are affected by water resources systems through feedbacks. Sectors in ANEMI therefore include the global climate system, carbon cycle, economy, population, land use and agriculture, and novel versions of the hydrological cycle, global water use and water quality. Since the model focus is on their interconnections through explicit nonlinear feedbacks, simulations with ANEMI provide insight into the nature and structure of connections between water resources and socio-economic and environmental change. Of particular interest to water resources researchers and modelers will be the simulated effects of a new water stress definition that incorporates both water quality and water quantity effects into the measurement of water scarcity. Five simulation runs demonstrate the value of wastewater treatment and reuse programs and the feedback-effects of irrigated agriculture and greater consumption of animal products.

  17. A gridded global data set of soil, intact regolith, and sedimentary deposit thicknesses for regional and global land surface modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pelletier, Jon D.; Broxton, Patrick D.; Hazenberg, Pieter; Zeng, Xubin; Troch, Peter A.; Niu, Guo-Yue; Williams, Zachary; Brunke, Michael A.; Gochis, David

    2016-03-01

    Earth's terrestrial near-subsurface environment can be divided into relatively porous layers of soil, intact regolith, and sedimentary deposits above unweathered bedrock. Variations in the thicknesses of these layers control the hydrologic and biogeochemical responses of landscapes. Currently, Earth System Models approximate the thickness of these relatively permeable layers above bedrock as uniform globally, despite the fact that their thicknesses vary systematically with topography, climate, and geology. To meet the need for more realistic input data for models, we developed a high-resolution gridded global data set of the average thicknesses of soil, intact regolith, and sedimentary deposits within each 30 arcsec (˜1 km) pixel using the best available data for topography, climate, and geology as input. Our data set partitions the global land surface into upland hillslope, upland valley bottom, and lowland landscape components and uses models optimized for each landform type to estimate the thicknesses of each subsurface layer. On hillslopes, the data set is calibrated and validated using independent data sets of measured soil thicknesses from the U.S. and Europe and on lowlands using depth to bedrock observations from groundwater wells in the U.S. We anticipate that the data set will prove useful as an input to regional and global hydrological and ecosystems models. This article was corrected on 2 FEB 2016. See the end of the full text for details.

  18. Modelling continental deformation within global plate tectonic reconstructions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williams, S.; Whittaker, J.; Heine, C.; Müller, P.

    2010-12-01

    A limitation of regional and global plate tectonic models is the way continental deformation is represented. Continental blocks are typically represented as rigid polygons - overlaps or gaps between adjacent continental blocks represent extension or compression respectively. Full-fit reconstructions of major ocean basins result in large overlaps between the conjugate continental plates, on the basis that the continental margins are highly extended compared to their pre-rift state. A fundamental challenge in generating more robust global-scale plate reconstructions is the incorporation of a more quantitative description of the kinematics within extended passive margins, based on observations. We have used the conjugate Southern Australia and Wilkes Land, Antarctica margins as a case study, and as part of this work have generated revised sediment thickness maps for these margins. These datasets are used to test different approaches for generating full-fit reconstructions in order to create a framework of methodologies that is globally applicable. One approach is to restore two conjugate continent-ocean boundaries (COBs) to their pre-rift configuration and then use the geometric fitting method of Hellinger (1981) and Royer and Chang (1991), used to generate fits of seafloor isochrons, to generate a “full-fit” Euler pole. To quantitatively restore the COBs to their palinspastic pre-rift configuration we integrate estimates of crustal thickness along small circle paths, defined by an initial estimate of the Euler stage pole describing plate motions during continental rifting. We then use the conjugate sets of restored COB’s as inputs to the geometric fitting method, treating them as isochrons, and so generate poles of rotation for the plate configuration prior to rifting. Two potential shortcomings of this methodology are that (1) the conjugate margins are treated independently, whereas in reality they were actually one continuous continental basin during rifting

  19. Emerging Internationalisation Models in an Uneven Global Terrain: Findings from a Global Survey

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Maringe, F.; Foskett, N.; Woodfield, S.

    2013-01-01

    We know little about how internationalisation processes are understood, rationalised and prioritised in different parts of the world. A global survey of internationalisation in universities was undertaken at the University of Southampton to fill this gap. Its purpose was to discover how strategic leaders in universities in different parts of the…

  20. Modeling Persistent Contrails in a Large Eddy Simulation and a Global Climate Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Naiman, A. D.; Lele, S. K.; Wilkerson, J. T.; Jacobson, M. Z.

    2009-12-01

    Two models of aircraft condensation trail (contrail) evolution have been developed: a high resolution, three-dimensional Large Eddy Simulation (LES) and a simple, low-cost Subgrid Contrail Model (SCM). The LES model was used to simulate contrail development from one second to twenty minutes after emission by the passing aircraft. The LES solves the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations with a Boussinesq approximation for buoyancy forces on an unstructured periodic grid. The numerical scheme uses a second-order finite volume spatial discretization and an implicit fractional-step method for time advancement. Lagrangian contrail particles grow according to a microphysical model of ice deposition and sublimation. The simulation is initialized with the wake of a commercial jet superimposed on a decaying turbulence field. The ambient atmosphere is stable and has a supersaturated relative humidity with respect to ice. Grid resolution is adjusted during the simulation, allowing higher resolution of flow structures than previous studies. We present results of a parametric study in which ambient turbulence levels, vertical wind shear, and aircraft type were varied. We find that higher levels of turbulence and shear promote mixing of aircraft exhaust with supersaturated ambient air, resulting in faster growth of ice and wider dispersion of the exhaust plume. The SCM was developed as a parameterization of contrail dynamics intended for use within a global model that examines the effect of commercial aviation on climate. The SCM provides an analytic solution to the changes in size and shape of a contrail cross-section over time due to global model grid-scale vertical wind shear and turbulence parameters. The model was derived from the physical equations of motion of a plume in a sheared, turbulent environment. Approximations based on physical reasoning and contrail observations allowed these equations to be reduced to simple ordinary differential equations in time with exact

  1. Boundary Condition Transfer from Global Atmospheric Model to Local Flood Inundation Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, H.; Kim, B.; Liu, Z.; Yamazaki, D.; Sanders, B.; Oki, T.; Famiglietti, J.

    2012-04-01

    Flooding is one of the most common natural disasters. It has been a matter of concern and interest in the history of Hydrology. Various methodologies have been developed to approach the issue. Since the capability of models and available data have not been enough, in general, using site-specific fine-tuned models and/or establishing a flood inundation map as a non-structural measure have been used in local societies, in order to predict and prevent damage from abnormal flooding over the design criteria of hydraulic structures. However, under changing climate, the global hydrologic cycle has been altered and the spatiotemporal pattern of natural extremes also has been modified, which reduces the credence of the estimated model parameters and inundation maps based on historical records. In this study, the transfer of information between different spatiotemporal scales from global through local is evaluated. The proposed modeling framework uses multiple modeling system and observational datasets, which are tested in different sites including the Amazon and the San Gabriel River. The Japanese 25-year Reanalysis (JRA-25) data is used to retrieve reliable large scale climate variability. Monthly bias in the reanalysis precipitation field is corrected using ensemble products of global observations such as GPCC and PREC/L. The Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) and National Hydrography Dataset Plus (NHD+) are exploited to describe topography in regional and local simulations. The BreZo hydrodynamic model which solves 2 dimensional shallow-water equations to predict flood wave propagation is employed in local high resolution (~100m) simulations. Regional scale hydrologic simulations are compiled using the Minimal Advanced Treatments of Surface Interaction and RunOff (MATSIRO) with Catchment-based Macro-scale Floodplain model (CaMa-Flood) and the Catchment-Based Hydrologic and Routing Modeling System (CHARMS) coupled with the Community Land Model (CLM) 3.5.

  2. A model of CO-CH4 global transport/chemistry. I - Chemistry model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Peters, L. K.; Kitada, T.

    1980-01-01

    A simplified chemistry model was developed to incorporate the CO-CH4 chemistry into the global transport model of these compounds. CO is important because of its effects on atmospheric chemistry and is partly responsible for controlling the hydroxyl radical (OH) concentration in the troposphere. The model includes the photodissociation rate coefficients expressed as functions of solar zenith angle and altitude, and it was applied to determine the sensitivity of the OH concentration to trace gaseous species, such as NOx, O3, and H2O. Also, the concentrations and diurnal variations of OH and HO2, and the contribution of individual reactions to OH generation and consumption were calculated.

  3. A modelling study of the atmospheric chemistry of DMS using the global model, STOCHEM-CRI

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khan, M. A. H.; Gillespie, S. M. P.; Razis, B.; Xiao, P.; Davies-Coleman, M. T.; Percival, C. J.; Derwent, R. G.; Dyke, J. M.; Ghosh, M. V.; Lee, E. P. F.; Shallcross, D. E.

    2016-02-01

    The tropospheric chemistry of dimethylsulfide (DMS) is investigated using a global three-dimensional chemical transport model, STOCHEM with the CRIv2-R5 chemistry scheme. The tropospheric distribution of DMS and its removal at the surface by OH abstraction, OH addition, NO3 oxidation, and BrO oxidation is modelled. The study shows that the lifetime and global burden of DMS is ca. 1.2 days and 98 Gg S, respectively. Inclusion of BrO oxidation resulted in a reduction of the lifetime (1.0 day) and global burden (83 Gg S) of DMS showing that this reaction is important in the DMS budget. The percentage contribution of BrO oxidation to the total removal of DMS is found to be only 7.9% that is considered a lower limit because the study does not include an inorganic source of bromine from sea-salt. BrO oxidation contributed significantly in the high latitudes of the southern hemisphere (SH). Inclusion of DMS removal by Cl2 showed that potentially a large amount of DMS is removed via this reaction specifically in the remote SH oceans, depending on the flux of Cl2 from the Southern Ocean. Model DMS levels are evaluated against measurement data from six different sites around the globe. The model predicted the correct seasonal cycle for DMS at all locations and correlated well with measurement data for most of the periods.

  4. Global Carbon Cycle Inside GISS ModelE GCM: Results of Equilibrium and Transient Simulations.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aleinov, I.; Kiang, N. Y.; Romanou, A.; Puma, M. J.; Kharecha, P.; Moorcroft, P. R.; Kim, Y.

    2008-12-01

    We present simulation results for a fully coupled carbon cycle inside the ModelE General Circulation Model (GCM) developed at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS). The current implementation utilizes the GISS dynamical atmospheric core coupled to the HYCOM ocean model. The atmospheric core uses a Quadratic Upstream Scheme (QUS) for advection of gas tracers, while HYCOM has its own built-in algorithm for advection of ocean tracers. The land surface part of the model consists of the GISS ground hydrology model coupled to the Ent dynamic global terrestrial ecosystem model. The ocean biogeochemistry model based on Watson Gregg's model was implemented inside the HYCOM ocean model. Together with ocean tracer transport, it describes all aspects of the carbon cycle inside the ocean and provides CO2 fluxes for exchange with the atmosphere. CO2 fluxes from land vegetation are provided by the Ent model, which employs well-known photosynthesis relationships of Farquhar, von Caemmerer, and Berry and stomatal conductance of Ball and Berry. Soil CO2 fluxes are also computed by the Ent model according to the CASA soil biogeochemistry model. We present results of fully coupled GCM simulations as well as off-line tests for different components. For GCM simulations, we present results of both equilibrium and transient runs and discuss implications of biases in GCM-predicted climate for accurate modeling of the carbon cycle.

  5. Singular boundary method for global gravity field modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cunderlik, Robert

    2014-05-01

    The singular boundary method (SBM) and method of fundamental solutions (MFS) are meshless boundary collocation techniques that use the fundamental solution of a governing partial differential equation (e.g. the Laplace equation) as their basis functions. They have been developed to avoid singular numerical integration as well as mesh generation in the traditional boundary element method (BEM). SBM have been proposed to overcome a main drawback of MFS - its controversial fictitious boundary outside the domain. The key idea of SBM is to introduce a concept of the origin intensity factors that isolate singularities of the fundamental solution and its derivatives using some appropriate regularization techniques. Consequently, the source points can be placed directly on the real boundary and coincide with the collocation nodes. In this study we deal with SBM applied for high-resolution global gravity field modelling. The first numerical experiment presents a numerical solution to the fixed gravimetric boundary value problem. The achieved results are compared with the numerical solutions obtained by MFS or the direct BEM indicating efficiency of all methods. In the second numerical experiments, SBM is used to derive the geopotential and its first derivatives from the Tzz components of the gravity disturbing tensor observed by the GOCE satellite mission. A determination of the origin intensity factors allows to evaluate the disturbing potential and gravity disturbances directly on the Earth's surface where the source points are located. To achieve high-resolution numerical solutions, the large-scale parallel computations are performed on the cluster with 1TB of the distributed memory and an iterative elimination of far zones' contributions is applied.

  6. Modeling international cooperation for the global environmental problematique

    SciTech Connect

    Sadeh, E.

    1997-12-31

    The focus of this study is on international cooperative decision-making related to global change issues concerning stratospheric ozone depletion and global climate warming. Such anthropogenic alteration of the Earth`s biosphere has given rise to a global environmental problematique that is demarcated by two dimensions. The first dimension is that global environmental Issues are demarcated by international environmental commons. Commons are defined as physical or biological systems that lie outside the jurisdiction of any individual state and are valued environmental resources globally. A second dimension pertains to tile collective action problem which results from a {open_quotes}tragedy of the commons.{close_quotes} According to traditional realist conception of international relations, that states behave in their rational self-interest, a {open_quotes}tragedy of the commons{close_quotes} ensues. The tragedy is a function of damage to the global environment, such as the production of economic resources that release greenhouse gases into the Earth`s biosphere, that is nonappropriable. Commons resources relative to the Earth`s biosphere are not limitless. At issue, is the realization of sustainable economic development promoted by cooperative political patterns that mitigate the negative consequences of this tragedy.

  7. MOZART, a global chemical transport model for ozone and related chemical tracers: 1. Model description

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brasseur, G. P.; Hauglustaine, D. A.; Walters, S.; Rasch, P. J.; Müller, J.-F.; Granier, C.; Tie, X. X.

    1998-11-01

    We present a new global three-dimensional chemical-transport model (called MOZART) developed in the framework of the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM) and aimed at studying the distribution and budget of tropospheric ozone and its precursors. The model, developed with a horizontal resolution of 2.8° in longitude and latitude, includes 25 levels in the vertical between the Earth's surface and an upper boundary located at approximately 35 km altitude. In its present configuration the model calculates the global distribution of 56 chemical constituents with a timestep of 20 min, and accounts for surface emission and deposition, large-scale advective transport, subscale convective and boundary layer exchanges, chemical and photochemical transformations, as well as wet scavenging. Transport is simulated "off line" from CCM with dynamical variables provided every 3 hours from preestablished history tapes. Advection is calculated using the semi-Lagrangian transport scheme [Rasch and Williamson, 1990] developed for the MATCH model of Rasch et al. [1997]. Convective and boundary layer transports are expressed according to Hack [1994] and Holtslag and Boville [1993], respectively. A detailed evaluation of the model results is provided in a companion paper [Hauglustaine et al., this issue]. An analysis of the spatial and temporal variability in the chemical fields predicted by the model suggests that regional events such as summertime ozone episodes in polluted areas can be simulated by MOZART.

  8. The GED4GEM project: development of a Global Exposure Database for the Global Earthquake Model initiative

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gamba, P.; Cavalca, D.; Jaiswal, K.S.; Huyck, C.; Crowley, H.

    2012-01-01

    In order to quantify earthquake risk of any selected region or a country of the world within the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) framework (www.globalquakemodel.org/), a systematic compilation of building inventory and population exposure is indispensable. Through the consortium of leading institutions and by engaging the domain-experts from multiple countries, the GED4GEM project has been working towards the development of a first comprehensive publicly available Global Exposure Database (GED). This geospatial exposure database will eventually facilitate global earthquake risk and loss estimation through GEM’s OpenQuake platform. This paper provides an overview of the GED concepts, aims, datasets, and inference methodology, as well as the current implementation scheme, status and way forward.

  9. Modelling global freshwater resources using WaterGAP 2.2 - model overview, selected results and applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Müller Schmied, Hannes; Adam, Linda; Döll, Petra; Eisner, Stephanie; Flörke, Martina; Güntner, Andreas; Kynast, Ellen; Portmann, Felix T.; Riedel, Claudia; Schneider, Christoph; Song, Qi; Wattenbach, Martin; Zhang, Jing

    2014-05-01

    The estimation of global freshwater flows and storages and their dynamics is essential for the assessment of historical and future water availability both for mankind and ecosystems. WaterGAP 2 is a state-of-the-art water model covering the entire global land area (except Antarctica) on a 0.5° by 0.5° grid. WaterGAP consists of a set of water use models and a hydrological model. Five global water use models representing the sectors irrigation, domestic water demand, manufacturing industries, livestock farming and cooling of thermal power plants inform the sub-model GWSWUSE which calculates net water abstractions distinguishing surface water and groundwater sources. Water flows and storages are simulated by the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model (WGHM). WGHM is calibrated against measured discharge for basins covering around 50 % of global land area. Since the original development of WaterGAP in the late 1990s, new input data and refined process algorithms have led to a significant improvement of the results. We present the current version WaterGAP 2.2 including selected results (e.g. discharge seasonality, water storage) and the global water balance for the time period 1971-2000. In addition, some examples of the application of WaterGAP output, e.g. within the GRACE community and for global environmental assessments are shown, reflecting the importance of global hydrology modeling in our globalized world.

  10. Comparing the model-simulated global warming signal to observations using empirical estimates of unforced noise

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The comparison of observed global mean surface air temperature (GMT) change to the mean change simulated by climate models has received much attention. For a given global warming signal produced by a climate model ensemble, there exists an envelope of GMT values representing the range of possible un...

  11. A global simulation model as a method for estimating the role of urban areas in global change

    SciTech Connect

    Krapivin, V.F.; Rochon, G.L.; Hicks, D.R.

    1996-12-31

    The study of global biospheric processes is undertaken in the framework of national and international programs. To support this, parameters, as well as other global demographic and geospheric integrated with multi-scale processes, have been created and subsequently models for the maps appropriate to each attribute. There are numerous models for the description of process dynamics. In most cases, models are use to analyze and address these relative to urban geographic space. To facilitate the understanding of the role of urban areas in the dynamics of global change, it is necessary to use a Spatial Global Model (SGM). This paper argues that a focus on the problems of SGM synthesis may suggest some ways of developing a constructive approach to the problem described. The world complex of Urban Areas Systems (UAS) influences biospheric processes to a very great extent. In turn, urban influences on biospheric processes can be evaluated by using the SGM. The biosphere is the complex of subsystems interacting with itself and a climatic system. The interaction criterion of these subsystems is related to its survivability. This paper describes the SGM within the context of a theoretical game structure in the following set of blocks: biogeochemical cycles of carbon, nitrogen, phosphorous, sulfur, and oxygen; the hydrologic cycle; marine biota; soil-plant formation; and human activity. The spatial structure of the SGM is determined by discretization of the earth surface; typically a geographic grid with incremental latitudinal and longitudinal values comprising the input parameter. The SGM has a simple climate block and the model is oriented relative to linkages with the complex climatic model. This paper discusses the problems of SGM synthesis, survivability, and software structure. Examples of SGM experiments are given.

  12. Nuclear Fuel Leasing, Recycling and proliferation: Modeling a Global View

    SciTech Connect

    Crozat, M P; Choi, J; Reis, V H; Hill, R

    2004-03-10

    would extend the spirit of President Eisenhower's ''Atoms for Peace'' vision toward solving some of the major international problems of the 21st Century--global climate change and the creation of a peaceful and stable world political regime. Needless to say, this is a very complex problem, encompassing all of the issues involved in nuclear power--economics, proliferation, waste management and safety--and a myriad of public and diplomatic policy issues as well. To gain a better understanding of the leasing concept we have built an interactive system dynamics model, Multinuke, using STELLA software. (STELLA is particularly useful for this type of analysis because of its capability to create user-friendly interfaces.) Multinuke simulates two separate nuclear entities and possible interactions between them, and therefore can be used to investigate the fuel-leasing concept. In this paper we will apply the results of Multinuke to a few simplified scenarios to help understand how fuel leasing might affect the future global growth of nuclear power, proliferation concern and spent fuel management.

  13. A THREE-DIMENSIONAL MODEL ASSESSMENT OF THE GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION OF HEXACHLOROBENZENE

    EPA Science Inventory

    The distributions of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the global environment have been studied typically with box/fugacity models with simplified treatments of atmospheric transport processes1. Such models are incapable of simulating the complex three-dimensional mechanis...

  14. Global Modeling and Projection of Short-Lived Climate Pollutants in an Earth System Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sudo, K.; Takemura, T.; Klimont, Z.; Kurokawa, J.; Akimoto, H.

    2013-12-01

    In predicting and mitigating future global warming, short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) such as tropospheric ozone (O3), black carbon (BC), and other related components including CH4/VOCs and aerosols play crucial roles as well as long-lived species like CO2 or N2O. Several recent studies suggests that reduction of heating SLCPs (i.e., O3 and black carbon) together with CH4 can decrease and delay the expected future warming, and can be an alternative to CO2 mitigation (Shindell et al., 2012). However it should be noted that there are still large uncertainties in simulating SLCPs and their climate impacts. For instance, present global models generally have a severe tendency to underestimate BC especially in remote areas like the polar regions as shown by the recent model intercomparison project under the IPCC (ACCMIP/AeroCOM). This problem in global BC modeling, basically coming from aging and removal processes of BC, causes still a large uncertainty in the estimate of BC's atmospheric heating and climate impacts (Bond et al., 2013; Kerr et al., 2013). This study attempted to improve global simulation of BC by developing a new scheme for simulating aging process of BC and re-evaluate radiative forcing of BC in the framework of a chemistry-aerosol coupled climate model (Earth system model) MIROC-ESM-CHEM. Our improved model with the new aging scheme appears to relatively well reproduce the observed BC concentrations and seasonality in the Arctic/Antarctic region. The new model estimates radiative forcing of BC to be 0.83 W m-2 which is about two times larger than the estimate by our original model with no aging scheme (0.41 W m-2), or the model ensemble mean in the IPCC report. Using this model, future projection of SLCPs and their climate impacts is conducted following the recent IIASA emission scenarios for the year 2030 (Klimont et al., 2006; Cofala et al., 2007). Our simulation suggests that heating SLCPs components (O3, BC, and CH4) are significantly reduced

  15. Global Ocean Circulation Modeling with an Isopycnic Coordinate Model. Final Report for May 1, 1998 - April 30, 2002

    SciTech Connect

    Bleck, R.

    2004-05-19

    The overall aim of this project was to continue development of a global version of the Miami Isopycnic Coordinate Ocean Model (MICOM) with the intent of turning it into a full-fledged oceanic component of an earth system model.

  16. Inverse modeling of atmospheric mercury emissions using a global chemical transport model and surface observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Song, S.; Selin, N. E.

    2012-12-01

    We use inverse modeling in combination with worldwide observational data to constrain atmospheric mercury fluxes and associated uncertainties from anthropogenic and natural sources. Though atmospheric transport is a critical pathway of global mercury transport, large uncertainties exist in estimating the magnitudes and temporal variabilities of mercury emissions to the atmosphere from both natural and anthropogenic processes. Previous estimations have primarily used a so-called "bottom-up" approach, which extrapolates the few direct measurements to larger regions or uses simplified process models to estimate fluxes. Here, we apply a "top-down" or inverse modeling approach. Worldwide surface observations of total gaseous mercury (TGM) and simulations from a global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem version 9-01-02 with a 2 by 2.5 degree horizontal resolution) are combined to estimate mercury fluxes. Time-invariant anthropogenic emission and seasonally varying fluxes (e.g., ocean evasion, biomass burning, and soil volatilization) are optimally estimated by Kalman filter between 2005 and 2009 at a monthly time resolution. The reference source spatial distributions are shown in Figure 1. We collected data from 16 measurement sites with high precision and frequency, covering most active stations during our period of study. The observations and reference model outputs at 4 representative sites are compared in Figure 2. We test the inverse model by comparing model-measurement fits between the reference model and optimized emissions.igure 1. Mercury reference source spatial distributions. Annually averaged patterns are shown in log scale. igure 2. Comparison of TGM monthly mean observations between observations (black, shown with standard deviations) and reference model results (red) at 4 representative sites.

  17. Efficient three-dimensional global models for climate studies: models I and II

    SciTech Connect

    Hansen, J.; Russell, G.; Rind, D.; Stone, P.; Lacis, A.; Lebedeff, S.; Ruedy, R.; Travis, L.

    1983-04-01

    A global atmospheric model is developed with a computational efficiency which allows long-range climate experiments. The model solves the simultaneous equations for conservation of mass, energy and momentum, and the equation of state on a grid. Differencing schemes for the dynamics are based on work of Arakawa. Cloud cover and vertical distribution are computed. Convection mixes moisture, heat and momentum, with buoyant air allowed to penetrate to a height determined by its buoyancy. Ground temperature calculations include diurnal variation and seasonal heat storage. Ground hydrology incorporates a water-holding capacity appropriate for the root zone of local vegetation. Snow depth is computed. Snow albedo includes effects of snow age and masking by vegetation. Surface fluxes are obtained from a drag-law formulation and parameterization of the Monin-Obukhov similarity relations. The initial Model I is used for 60 climate sensitivity experiments with integration times from 3 months to 5 years. These experiments determine the dependence of model simulation on various physical assumptions and model parameters. Several modifications are incorporated to produce Model II, the greatest changes arising from more realistic parameterization of the effect of boundary layer stratification on surface fluxes and the addition of friction in the top stratospheric layer to minimize effects of wave reflection from the rigid model top. The model's climate simulations are compared to observations and a brief study is made of effects of horizontal resolution. It is verified that the major features of global climate can be realistically simulated with a resolution as coarse as 1000 km, which requires an order of magnitude less computation time than used by most general circulation models. 93 references, 44 figures, 8 tables.

  18. Towards systematic evaluation of crop model outputs for global land-use models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leclere, David; Azevedo, Ligia B.; Skalský, Rastislav; Balkovič, Juraj; Havlík, Petr

    2016-04-01

    Land provides vital socioeconomic resources to the society, however at the cost of large environmental degradations. Global integrated models combining high resolution global gridded crop models (GGCMs) and global economic models (GEMs) are increasingly being used to inform sustainable solution for agricultural land-use. However, little effort has yet been done to evaluate and compare the accuracy of GGCM outputs. In addition, GGCM datasets require a large amount of parameters whose values and their variability across space are weakly constrained: increasing the accuracy of such dataset has a very high computing cost. Innovative evaluation methods are required both to ground credibility to the global integrated models, and to allow efficient parameter specification of GGCMs. We propose an evaluation strategy for GGCM datasets in the perspective of use in GEMs, illustrated with preliminary results from a novel dataset (the Hypercube) generated by the EPIC GGCM and used in the GLOBIOM land use GEM to inform on present-day crop yield, water and nutrient input needs for 16 crops x 15 management intensities, at a spatial resolution of 5 arc-minutes. We adopt the following principle: evaluation should provide a transparent diagnosis of model adequacy for its intended use. We briefly describe how the Hypercube data is generated and how it articulates with GLOBIOM in order to transparently identify the performances to be evaluated, as well as the main assumptions and data processing involved. Expected performances include adequately representing the sub-national heterogeneity in crop yield and input needs: i) in space, ii) across crop species, and iii) across management intensities. We will present and discuss measures of these expected performances and weight the relative contribution of crop model, input data and data processing steps in performances. We will also compare obtained yield gaps and main yield-limiting factors against the M3 dataset. Next steps include

  19. Real-Time Global Nonlinear Aerodynamic Modeling for Learn-To-Fly

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Morelli, Eugene A.

    2016-01-01

    Flight testing and modeling techniques were developed to accurately identify global nonlinear aerodynamic models for aircraft in real time. The techniques were developed and demonstrated during flight testing of a remotely-piloted subscale propeller-driven fixed-wing aircraft using flight test maneuvers designed to simulate a Learn-To-Fly scenario. Prediction testing was used to evaluate the quality of the global models identified in real time. The real-time global nonlinear aerodynamic modeling algorithm will be integrated and further tested with learning adaptive control and guidance for NASA Learn-To-Fly concept flight demonstrations.

  20. Model for Infusing a Global Perspective into the Curriculum.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thorne, Bonnie Baker, Comp.; And Others

    Global education is an approach to learning that transcends national boundaries and involves the interconnection of cultural, ecological, economic, political and technological systems. This perspective promotes multicultural sensitivity that enables young people to see more clearly their own responsibilities and opportunities in today's world.…

  1. World Culture with Chinese Characteristics: When Global Models Go Native

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schulte, Barbara

    2012-01-01

    Just as the world has increasingly been compressed over recent decades through transnationally engaged actors or "carriers" such as mobile experts, international organisations, and seemingly globalised bodies of knowledge, so have China's politicians and academics increasingly "gone global" in various fields of social action, including education.…

  2. MODELING THE IMPACT OF AIR POLLUTION ON GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

    EPA Science Inventory

    Tropospheric ozone (O3) and aerosols have major effects on climate and are the two air pollutants of most concern in the developed world. O3 is a major greenhouse gas (GHG) and light-absorbing aerosols such as black carbon (BC) also contribute to global warm...

  3. Global simulation of tropospheric O3-NO x -hydrocarbon chemistry: 2. Model evaluation and global ozone budget

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Yuhang; Logan, Jennifer A.; Jacob, Daniel J.

    1998-05-01

    Results from a global three-dimensional model for tropospheric O3-NOx-hydrocarbon chemistry are presented and evaluated with surface, ozonesonde, and aircraft measurements. Seasonal variations and regional distributions of ozone, NO, peroxyacetylnitrate (PAN), CO, ethane, acetone, and H2O2 are examined. The model reproduces observed NO and PAN concentrations to within a factor of 2 for a wide range of tropospheric regions including the upper troposphere but tends to overestimate HNO3 concentrations in the remote troposphere (sometimes several fold). This discrepancy implies a missing sink for HNO3 that does not lead to rapid recycling of NOx; only in the upper troposphere over the tropical South Atlantic would a fast conversion of HNO3 to NOx improve the model simulation for NOx. Observed concentrations of acetone are reproduced in the model by including a large biogenic source (15 Tg C yr-1), which accounts for 40% of the estimated global source of acetone (37 Tg C yr-1). Concentrations of H2O2 in various regions of the troposphere are simulated usually to within a factor of 2, providing a test for HOx chemistry in the model. The model reproduces well the observed concentrations and seasonal variations of ozone in the troposphere, with some exceptions including an underestimate of the vertical gradient across the tropical trade wind inversion. A global budget analysis in the model indicates that the supply and loss of tropospheric ozone are dominated by photochemistry within the troposphere and that NOx. emitted in the southern hemisphere is twice as efficient at producing ozone as NOx emitted in the northern hemisphere.

  4. A solution to the global height datum problem based on satellite derived global models and the corresponding error budget

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barzaghi, R.; Gatti, A.; Reguzzoni, M.; Venuti, G.

    2012-04-01

    The global height datum problem, that is the determination of biases of different height systems at global scale, is revised and two solutions are proposed. As it is well known, biased heights enter into the computation of terrestrial gravity anomalies, which in turn are used for geoid determination. Hence, these biases enter as secondary or indirect effect also in such a geoid model. In contrast to terrestrial gravity anomalies, gravity and geoid models derived from satellite gravity missions, and in particular GRACE and GOCE, do not suffer from those inconsistencies. Thus, these models can be profitably used in estimating the existing height system biases. Two approaches have been studied. The first one compares the gravity potential coefficients in the range of degrees from 100 to 200 of an unbiased gravity field from GOCE with those of the combined model EGM2008 that in this range are affected by the height biases. The second approach compares height anomalies derived from GNSS ellipsoidal heights and biased normal heights, with anomalies derived from an anomalous potential which combines a satellite-only model up to degree 200 and a high-resolution global model above 200. Numerical tests have been devised to prove the effectiveness of the two methods, in terms of variances of the biases to be estimated. This error budget analysis depends on the observation accuracies as well as of their number and spatial distribution. The impact of the error covariance structure of the GOCE and EGM2008 models has been evaluated together with the impact of the observation network design.

  5. Situation model updating in young and older adults: Global versus incremental mechanisms.

    PubMed

    Bailey, Heather R; Zacks, Jeffrey M

    2015-06-01

    Readers construct mental models of situations described by text. Activity in narrative text is dynamic, so readers must frequently update their situation models when dimensions of the situation change. Updating can be incremental, such that a change leads to updating just the dimension that changed, or global, such that the entire model is updated. Here, we asked whether older and young adults make differential use of incremental and global updating. Participants read narratives containing changes in characters and spatial location and responded to recognition probes throughout the texts. Responses were slower when probes followed a change, suggesting that situation models were updated at changes. When either dimension changed, responses to probes for both dimensions were slowed; this provides evidence for global updating. Moreover, older adults showed stronger evidence of global updating than did young adults. One possibility is that older adults perform more global updating to offset reduced ability to manipulate information in working memory.

  6. Situation Model Updating in Young and Older Adults: Global versus Incremental Mechanisms

    PubMed Central

    Bailey, Heather R.; Zacks, Jeffrey M.

    2015-01-01

    Readers construct mental models of situations described by text. Activity in narrative text is dynamic, so readers must frequently update their situation models when dimensions of the situation change. Updating can be incremental, such that a change leads to updating just the dimension that changed, or global, such that the entire model is updated. Here, we asked whether older and young adults make differential use of incremental and global updating. Participants read narratives containing changes in characters and spatial location and responded to recognition probes throughout the texts. Responses were slower when probes followed a change, suggesting that situation models were updated at changes. When either dimension changed, responses to probes for both dimensions were slowed; this provides evidence for global updating. Moreover, older adults showed stronger evidence of global updating than did young adults. One possibility is that older adults perform more global updating to offset reduced ability to manipulate information in working memory. PMID:25938248

  7. The NASA/MSFC global reference atmospheric model: MOD 3 (with spherical harmonic wind model)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Justus, C. G.; Fletcher, G. R.; Gramling, F. E.; Pace, W. B.

    1980-01-01

    Improvements to the global reference atmospheric model are described. The basic model includes monthly mean values of pressure, density, temperature, and geostrophic winds, as well as quasi-biennial and small and large scale random perturbations. A spherical harmonic wind model for the 25 to 90 km height range is included. Below 25 km and above 90 km, the GRAM program uses the geostrophic wind equations and pressure data to compute the mean wind. In the altitudes where the geostrophic wind relations are used, an interpolation scheme is employed for estimating winds at low latitudes where the geostrophic wind relations being to mesh down. Several sample wind profiles are given, as computed by the spherical harmonic model. User and programmer manuals are presented.

  8. The global reference atmospheric model, mod 2 (with two scale perturbation model)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Justus, C. G.; Hargraves, W. R.

    1976-01-01

    The Global Reference Atmospheric Model was improved to produce more realistic simulations of vertical profiles of atmospheric parameters. A revised two scale random perturbation model using perturbation magnitudes which are adjusted to conform to constraints imposed by the perfect gas law and the hydrostatic condition is described. The two scale perturbation model produces appropriately correlated (horizontally and vertically) small scale and large scale perturbations. These stochastically simulated perturbations are representative of the magnitudes and wavelengths of perturbations produced by tides and planetary scale waves (large scale) and turbulence and gravity waves (small scale). Other new features of the model are: (1) a second order geostrophic wind relation for use at low latitudes which does not "blow up" at low latitudes as the ordinary geostrophic relation does; and (2) revised quasi-biennial amplitudes and phases and revised stationary perturbations, based on data through 1972.

  9. Aerosol Properties and Processes: A Path from Field and Laboratory Measurements to Global Climate Models

    SciTech Connect

    Ghan, Steven J.; Schwartz, Stephen E.

    2007-07-01

    Aerosols exert a substantial influence on climate and climate change through a variety of complex mechanisms. Consequently there is a need to represent aerosol effects in global climate models, and models have begun to include representations of these effects. However, the treatment of aerosols in current global climate models is presently highly simplified, omitting many important processes and feedbacks. Consequently there is need for substantial improvement. Here we describe the U. S. Department of Energy strategy for improving the treatment of aerosol properties and processes in global climate models. The strategy begins with a foundation of field and laboratory measurements that provide the basis for modules of selected aerosol properties and processes. These modules are then integrated in regional aerosol models, which are evaluated by comparing with field measurements. Issues of scale are then addressed so that the modules can be applied to global aerosol models, which are evaluated by comparing with global satellite measurements. Finally, the validated set of modules are applied to global climate models for multi-century simulations. This strategy can be applied to successive generations of global climate models.

  10. Applying downscaled global climate model data to a hydrodynamic surface-water and groundwater model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Swain, Eric; Stefanova, Lydia; Smith, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    Precipitation data from Global Climate Models have been downscaled to smaller regions. Adapting this downscaled precipitation data to a coupled hydrodynamic surface-water/groundwater model of southern Florida allows an examination of future conditions and their effect on groundwater levels, inundation patterns, surface-water stage and flows, and salinity. The downscaled rainfall data include the 1996-2001 time series from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting ERA-40 simulation and both the 1996-1999 and 2038-2057 time series from two global climate models: the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory (GFDL). Synthesized surface-water inflow datasets were developed for the 2038-2057 simulations. The resulting hydrologic simulations, with and without a 30-cm sea-level rise, were compared with each other and field data to analyze a range of projected conditions. Simulations predicted generally higher future stage and groundwater levels and surface-water flows, with sea-level rise inducing higher coastal salinities. A coincident rise in sea level, precipitation and surface-water flows resulted in a narrower inland saline/fresh transition zone. The inland areas were affected more by the rainfall difference than the sea-level rise, and the rainfall differences make little difference in coastal inundation, but a larger difference in coastal salinities.

  11. Two chaotic global models for cereal crops cycles observed from satellite in northern Morocco

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mangiarotti, Sylvain; Drapeau, Laurent; Letellier, Christophe

    2014-06-01

    The dynamics underlying cereal crops in the northern region of Morocco is investigated using a global modelling technique applied to a vegetation index time series derived from satellite measurements, namely, the normalized difference vegetation index from 1982 to 2008. Two three-dimensional chaotic global models of reduced size (14-term and 15-term models) are obtained. The model validation is performed by comparing their horizons of predictability with those provided in previous studies. The attractors produced by the two global models have a complex foliated structure—evidenced in a Poincaré section—rending a topological characterization difficult to perform. Thus, the Kaplan-Yorke dimension is estimated from the synthetic data produced by our global models. Our results suggest that cereal crops in the northern Morocco are governed by a weakly dissipative three-dimensional chaotic dynamics.

  12. Perspectives on open access high resolution digital elevation models to produce global flood hazard layers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sampson, Christopher; Smith, Andrew; Bates, Paul; Neal, Jeffrey; Trigg, Mark

    2015-12-01

    Global flood hazard models have recently become a reality thanks to the release of open access global digital elevation models, the development of simplified and highly efficient flow algorithms, and the steady increase in computational power. In this commentary we argue that although the availability of open access global terrain data has been critical in enabling the development of such models, the relatively poor resolution and precision of these data now limit significantly our ability to estimate flood inundation and risk for the majority of the planet's surface. The difficulty of deriving an accurate 'bare-earth' terrain model due to the interaction of vegetation and urban structures with the satellite-based remote sensors means that global terrain data are often poorest in the areas where people, property (and thus vulnerability) are most concentrated. Furthermore, the current generation of open access global terrain models are over a decade old and many large floodplains, particularly those in developing countries, have undergone significant change in this time. There is therefore a pressing need for a new generation of high resolution and high vertical precision open access global digital elevation models to allow significantly improved global flood hazard models to be developed.

  13. Global assessment of Vegetation Index and Phenology Lab (VIP) and Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) version 3 products

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marshall, M.; Okuto, E.; Kang, Y.; Opiyo, E.; Ahmed, M.

    2015-06-01

    Earth observation based long-term global vegetation index products are used by scientists from a wide range of disciplines concerned with global change. Inter-comparison studies are commonly performed to keep the user community informed on the consistency and accuracy of such records as they evolve. In this study, we compared two new records: (1) Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index Version 3 (NDVI3g) and (2) Vegetation Index and Phenology Lab (VIP) Version 3 NDVI (NDVI3v) and Enhanced Vegetation Index 2 (EVI3v). We evaluated the two records via three experiments that addressed the primary use of such records in global change research: (1) prediction of the Leaf Area Index (LAI) used in light-use efficiency modeling, (2) estimation of vegetation climatology in Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere Transfer models, and (3) trend analysis of the magnitude and phenology of vegetation productivity. Experiment one, unlike previous inter-comparison studies, was performed with a unique Landsat 30 m spatial resolution and in situ LAI database for major crop types on five continents. Overall, the two records showed a high level of agreement both in direction and magnitude on a monthly basis, though VIP values were higher and more variable and showed lower correlations and higher error with in situ LAI. The records were most consistent at northern latitudes during the primary growing season and southern latitudes and the tropics throughout much of the year, while the records were less consistent at northern latitudes during green-up and senescence and in the great deserts of the world throughout much of the year. The two records were also highly consistent in terms of trend direction/magnitude, showing a 30+ year increase (decrease) in NDVI over much of the globe (tropical rainforests). The two records were less consistent in terms of timing due to the poor correlation of the records during start and end of growing season.

  14. Mercury exosphere I. Global circulation model of its sodium component

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leblanc, Francois; Johnson, R. E.

    2010-10-01

    Our understanding of Mercury's sodium exosphere has improved considerably in the last 5 years thanks to new observations (Schleicher, H., Wiedemann, G., Wöhl, H., Berkefeld, T., Soltau, D. [2004]. Astron. Astrophys. 425, 1119-1124) and to the publication of a summary of the large set of ground based observations (Potter, A.E., Killen, R.M., Morgan, T.H. [2007]. Icarus 186, 571-580; Potter, A.E., Killen, R.M. [2008]. Icarus 194, 1-12; Potter et al., 2009). In particular, the non-uniformity in longitude of the dayside sodium distribution (the dawn/dusk asymmetry) has now been clearly observed. This suggests that Mercury's sodium exosphere is partly driven by a global day to nightside migration of the volatiles. One of the key questions remaining is the nature of the prevailing sodium ejection mechanisms. Because of the uncertain parameters for each ejection mechanisms, solving this problem has been difficult as indicated by the numerous papers over the last 15 years with very different conclusions. In addition, the variation of the size and of the spatial distribution of the surface reservoir (Leblanc, F., Johnson, R.E. [2003]. Icarus 164, 261-281) varies with distance from the Sun affecting the importance of each ejection mechanism on Mercury's orbital position. We here present an updated version of the Leblanc and Johnson (Leblanc, F., Johnson, R.E. [2003]. Icarus 164, 261-281) model. We take into account the two populations of sodium in the surface reservoir (Hunten, D.M., Morgan, T.M., Shemansky, D.M. [1988]. The Mercury atmosphere. In: Vilas, F., Chapman, C., Matthews, M. (Eds.), Mercury. University of Arizona Press, Tucson, pp. 562-612), one ambient population (physisorbed in the regolith with low binding energy) and one source population (chemisorbed coming from grain interior or from fresh dust brought to the surface and characterized by a higher binding energy). We also incorporate a better description of the solar wind sputtering variation with solar

  15. Evaluation of coral reef carbonate production models at a global scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jones, N. S.; Ridgwell, A.; Hendy, E. J.

    2014-09-01

    Calcification by coral reef communities is estimated to account for half of all carbonate produced in shallow water environments and more than 25% of the total carbonate buried in marine sediments globally. Production of calcium carbonate by coral reefs is therefore an important component of the global carbon cycle. It is also threatened by future global warming and other global change pressures. Numerical models of reefal carbonate production are essential for understanding how carbonate deposition responds to environmental conditions including future atmospheric CO2 concentrations, but these models must first be evaluated in terms of their skill in recreating present day calcification rates. Here we evaluate four published model descriptions of reef carbonate production in terms of their predictive power, at both local and global scales, by comparing carbonate budget outputs with independent estimates. We also compile available global data on reef calcification to produce an observation-based dataset for the model evaluation. The four calcification models are based on functions sensitive to combinations of light availability, aragonite saturation (Ωa) and temperature and were implemented within a specifically-developed global framework, the Global Reef Accretion Model (GRAM). None of the four models correlated with independent rate estimates of whole reef calcification. The temperature-only based approach was the only model output to significantly correlate with coral-calcification rate observations. The absence of any predictive power for whole reef systems, even when consistent at the scale of individual corals, points to the overriding importance of coral cover estimates in the calculations. Our work highlights the need for an ecosystem modeling approach, accounting for population dynamics in terms of mortality and recruitment and hence coral cover, in estimating global reef carbonate budgets. In addition, validation of reef carbonate budgets is severely

  16. Evaluation of coral reef carbonate production models at a global scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jones, N. S.; Ridgwell, A.; Hendy, E. J.

    2015-03-01

    Calcification by coral reef communities is estimated to account for half of all carbonate produced in shallow water environments and more than 25% of the total carbonate buried in marine sediments globally. Production of calcium carbonate by coral reefs is therefore an important component of the global carbon cycle; it is also threatened by future global warming and other global change pressures. Numerical models of reefal carbonate production are needed for understanding how carbonate deposition responds to environmental conditions including atmospheric CO2 concentrations in the past and into the future. However, before any projections can be made, the basic test is to establish model skill in recreating present-day calcification rates. Here we evaluate four published model descriptions of reef carbonate production in terms of their predictive power, at both local and global scales. We also compile available global data on reef calcification to produce an independent observation-based data set for the model evaluation of carbonate budget outputs. The four calcification models are based on functions sensitive to combinations of light availability, aragonite saturation (Ωa) and temperature and were implemented within a specifically developed global framework, the Global Reef Accretion Model (GRAM). No model was able to reproduce independent rate estimates of whole-reef calcification, and the output from the temperature-only based approach was the only model to significantly correlate with coral-calcification rate observations. The absence of any predictive power for whole reef systems, even when consistent at the scale of individual corals, points to the overriding importance of coral cover estimates in the calculations. Our work highlights the need for an ecosystem modelling approach, accounting for population dynamics in terms of mortality and recruitment and hence calcifier abundance, in estimating global reef carbonate budgets. In addition, validation of reef

  17. Computational Modeling in Support of Global Eradication of Infectious Diseases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eckhoff, Philip A.; Gates, William H., III; Myhrvold, Nathan P.; Wood, Lowell

    2014-07-01

    The past century has seen tremendous advances in global health, with broad reductions in the worldwide burden of infectious disease. Science has fundamentally advanced our understanding of disease etiology and medicine has provided remarkable capabilities to diagnose many syndromes and to target the causative pathogen. The advent and proliferation of antibiotics has dramatically lowered the impact of infections that were once near certain death sentences. Vaccination has provided a route to protect each new birth cohort from pathogens which once killed a substantial fraction of each generation, and in some countries, vaccination coverage has been raised to sufficiently high levels to fully interrupt transmission of major pathogens. There were 7 million deaths among children under 5 years of age in 2010, substantially down from decades past, and even more so in terms of deaths per capita per year of populations at risk. However, the annual rate globally is 1,070 per 100,000, while in developed countries the rate is only 137 per 100,000 (IHME GBD, 2010). Therefore, bringing global rates down to rates already achieved in developed countries represents the huge gains currently available via means such as vaccination and access to modern health care...

  18. Global Convergence of the EM Algorithm for Unconstrained Latent Variable Models with Categorical Indicators

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Weissman, Alexander

    2013-01-01

    Convergence of the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm to a global optimum of the marginal log likelihood function for unconstrained latent variable models with categorical indicators is presented. The sufficient conditions under which global convergence of the EM algorithm is attainable are provided in an information-theoretic context by…

  19. Towards Remotely Sensed Composite Global Drought Risk Modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dercas, Nicholas; Dalezios, Nicolas

    2015-04-01

    Drought is a multi-faceted issue and requires a multi-faceted assessment. Droughts may have the origin on precipitation deficits, which sequentially and by considering different time and space scales may impact soil moisture, plant wilting, stream flow, wildfire, ground water levels, famine and social impacts. There is a need to monitor drought even at a global scale. Key variables for monitoring drought include climate data, soil moisture, stream flow, ground water, reservoir and lake levels, snow pack, short-medium-long range forecasts, vegetation health and fire danger. However, there is no single definition of drought and there are different drought indicators and indices even for each drought type. There are already four operational global drought risk monitoring systems, namely the U.S. Drought Monitor, the European Drought Observatory (EDO), the African and the Australian systems, respectively. These systems require further research to improve the level of accuracy, the time and space scales, to consider all types of drought and to achieve operational efficiency, eventually. This paper attempts to contribute to the above mentioned objectives. Based on a similar general methodology, the multi-indicator approach is considered. This has resulted from previous research in the Mediterranean region, an agriculturally vulnerable region, using several drought indices separately, namely RDI and VHI. The proposed scheme attempts to consider different space scaling based on agroclimatic zoning through remotely sensed techniques and several indices. Needless to say, the agroclimatic potential of agricultural areas has to be assessed in order to achieve sustainable and efficient use of natural resources in combination with production maximization. Similarly, the time scale is also considered by addressing drought-related impacts affected by precipitation deficits on time scales ranging from a few days to a few months, such as non-irrigated agriculture, topsoil moisture

  20. Earth Global Reference Atmospheric Model 2007 (Earth-GRAM07)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Leslie, Fred W.; Justus, C. G.

    2008-01-01

    GRAM is a Fortran software package that can run on a variety of platforms including PC's. GRAM provides values of atmospheric quantities such as temperature, pressure, density, winds, constituents, etc. GRAM99 covers all global locations, all months, and heights from the surface to approx. 1000 km). Dispersions (perturbations) of these parameters are also provided and are spatially and temporally correlated. GRAM can be run in a stand-alone mode or called as a subroutine from a trajectory program. GRAM07 is diagnostic, not prognostic (i.e., it describes the atmosphere, but it does not forecast). The source code is distributed free-of-charge to eligible recipients.

  1. Modeling of magnetic reconnection in the magnetotail using global MHD simulation with an effective resistivity model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Den, M.; Horiuchi, R.; Fujita, S.; Tanaka, T.

    2011-12-01

    Magnetic reconnection is considered to play an important role in space phenomena such as substorm in the Earth's magnetosphere. Tanaka and Fujita reproduced substorm evolution process by numerical simulation with the global MHD code [1]. In the MHD framework, the dissipation model is introduced for modeling of the kinetic effects. They found that the normalized reconnection viscosity, one of the dissipation model employed there, gave a large effect for the dipolarization, central phenomenon in the substorm development process, though that viscosity was assumed to be a constant parameter. It is well known that magnetic reconnection is controlled by microscopic kinetic mechanism. Frozen-in condition is broken due to particle kinetic effects and collisionless reconnection is triggered when current sheet is compressed as thin as ion kinetic scales under the influence of external driving flow [2, 3]. Horiuchi and his collaborators showed that reconnection electric field generated by microscopic physics evolves inside ion meandering scale so as to balance the flux inflow rate at the inflow boundary, which is controlled by macroscopic physics [2]. That is, effective resistivity generated through this process can be expressed by balance equation between micro and macro physics. In this paper, we perform substorm simulation by using the global MHD code developed by Tanaka [3] with this effective resistivity instead of the empirical resistivity model. We obtain the AE indices from simulation data, in which substorm onset can be seen clearly, and investigate the relationship between the substorm development and the effective resistivity model. [1] T. Tanaka, A, Nakamizo, A. Yoshikawa, S. Fujita, H. Shinagawa, H. Shimazu, T. Kikuchi, and K. K. Hashimoto, J. Geophys. Res. 115 (2010) A05220,doi:10.1029/2009JA014676. [2] W. Pei, R. Horiuchi, and T. Sato, Physics of Plasmas,Vol. 8 (2001), pp. 3251-3257. [3] A. Ishizawa, and R. Horiuchi, Phys. Rev. Lett., Vol. 95, 045003 (2005). [4

  2. SEP modeling and forecasts based on the ENLIL global heliospheric model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mays, M. Leila; Luhmann, Janet; Odstrcil, Dusan; Bain, Hazel; Li, Yan; Kuznetsova, Maria

    2015-04-01

    Understanding gradual SEP events (often driven by CMEs) well enough to forecast their properties at a given location requires a realistic picture of the global background solar wind through which the shocks and SEPs propagate. The global 3D MHD WSA-ENLIL model (Odstrcil et al., 2004) provides a time-dependent background heliospheric description, into which a cone-shaped CME can be inserted. It is clear from our preliminary runs that the CMEs sometimes generate multiple shocks, some of which fade while others merge and/or strengthen as they propagate. In order to completely characterize the SEP profiles observed at various locations with the aid of these simulations it is essential to include all of the relevant CMEs and allow enough time for the events to propagate and interact. From ENLIL v2.8 simulations one can extract the magnetic topologies of observer-connected magnetic field lines and all plasma and shock properties along those field lines. ENLIL "likelihood/all-clear" forecasting maps provide expected intensity, timing/duration of events at locations throughout the heliosphere with "possible SEP affected areas" color-coded based on shock strength. Accurate descriptions of the heliosphere, and hence modeled SEPs, are achieved by ENLIL only when the background solar wind is well-reproduced and CME parameters are accurate. ENLIL derived information is also useful to drive SEP models such as the Solar Energetic Particle Model (SEPMOD) which calculates the time series of ~10-100 MeV protons at a specific observer location using a passive test particle population (Luhmann et al. 2007, 2010). In this presentation we demonstrate SEP event modeling which utilizes routine ENLIL runs important for space weather forecasting and research. Making SEP models available for research and operational users is one of Community Coordinated Modeling Center's (CCMC) top priorities. Heliospheric model outputs are a necessary ingredient for SEP simulations. The CCMC is making steps

  3. Global stability of Gompertz model of three competing populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Yumei; Wang, Wendi; Lu, Zhengyi

    2007-10-01

    The model of three competitive populations with Gompertz growth is studied. The periodic solutions are ruled out by generalized Dulac criteria. On the basis of the analysis, we obtain conditions that ensure the asymptotic behavior of the model is simple.

  4. Global Expanded Nutrient Supply (GENuS) Model: A New Method for Estimating the Global Dietary Supply of Nutrients.

    PubMed

    Smith, Matthew R; Micha, Renata; Golden, Christopher D; Mozaffarian, Dariush; Myers, Samuel S

    2016-01-01

    Insufficient data exist for accurate estimation of global nutrient supplies. Commonly used global datasets contain key weaknesses: 1) data with global coverage, such as the FAO food balance sheets, lack specific information about many individual foods and no information on micronutrient supplies nor heterogeneity among subnational populations, while 2) household surveys provide a closer approximation of consumption, but are often not nationally representative, do not commonly capture many foods consumed outside of the home, and only provide adequate information for a few select populations. Here, we attempt to improve upon these datasets by constructing a new model--the Global Expanded Nutrient Supply (GENuS) model--to estimate nutrient availabilities for 23 individual nutrients across 225 food categories for thirty-four age-sex groups in nearly all countries. Furthermore, the model provides historical trends in dietary nutritional supplies at the national level using data from 1961-2011. We determine supplies of edible food by expanding the food balance sheet data using FAO production and trade data to increase food supply estimates from 98 to 221 food groups, and then estimate the proportion of major cereals being processed to flours to increase to 225. Next, we estimate intake among twenty-six demographic groups (ages 20+, both sexes) in each country by using data taken from the Global Dietary Database, which uses nationally representative surveys to relate national averages of food consumption to individual age and sex-groups; for children and adolescents where GDD data does not yet exist, average calorie-adjusted amounts are assumed. Finally, we match food supplies with nutrient densities from regional food composition tables to estimate nutrient supplies, running Monte Carlo simulations to find the range of potential nutrient supplies provided by the diet. To validate our new method, we compare the GENuS estimates of nutrient supplies against independent

  5. Global Expanded Nutrient Supply (GENuS) Model: A New Method for Estimating the Global Dietary Supply of Nutrients.

    PubMed

    Smith, Matthew R; Micha, Renata; Golden, Christopher D; Mozaffarian, Dariush; Myers, Samuel S

    2016-01-01

    Insufficient data exist for accurate estimation of global nutrient supplies. Commonly used global datasets contain key weaknesses: 1) data with global coverage, such as the FAO food balance sheets, lack specific information about many individual foods and no information on micronutrient supplies nor heterogeneity among subnational populations, while 2) household surveys provide a closer approximation of consumption, but are often not nationally representative, do not commonly capture many foods consumed outside of the home, and only provide adequate information for a few select populations. Here, we attempt to improve upon these datasets by constructing a new model--the Global Expanded Nutrient Supply (GENuS) model--to estimate nutrient availabilities for 23 individual nutrients across 225 food categories for thirty-four age-sex groups in nearly all countries. Furthermore, the model provides historical trends in dietary nutritional supplies at the national level using data from 1961-2011. We determine supplies of edible food by expanding the food balance sheet data using FAO production and trade data to increase food supply estimates from 98 to 221 food groups, and then estimate the proportion of major cereals being processed to flours to increase to 225. Next, we estimate intake among twenty-six demographic groups (ages 20+, both sexes) in each country by using data taken from the Global Dietary Database, which uses nationally representative surveys to relate national averages of food consumption to individual age and sex-groups; for children and adolescents where GDD data does not yet exist, average calorie-adjusted amounts are assumed. Finally, we match food supplies with nutrient densities from regional food composition tables to estimate nutrient supplies, running Monte Carlo simulations to find the range of potential nutrient supplies provided by the diet. To validate our new method, we compare the GENuS estimates of nutrient supplies against independent

  6. Terrestrial Models and Global Change: Challenges for the Future

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hurtt, George C.; Moorcroft, Paul R.; Pacala, Stephen W.; Levin, Simon A.

    1998-01-01

    A wide variety of models have illustrated the potential importance of terrestrial biological feedbacks on climate and climate change, yet our ability to make precise predictions is severely limited, due to a high degree of uncertainty. In this paper, after briefly reviewing current models, we present challenges for new terrestrial models and introduce a simple mechanistic approach that may complement existing approaches.

  7. Model Resolution, Model Covariance, and Travel Time Prediction Uncertainty for a Global Tomographic P-Velocity Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ballard, S.; Young, C. J.; Hipp, J. R.; Encarnacao, A.; Chang, M.; Begnaud, M. L.; Phillips, W. S.; Anderson, D.

    2011-12-01

    Global 3D models of the compression wave speed in the Earth can provide superior travel time predictions at both regional and teleseismic distances. However, given the variable data quality and highly uneven data sampling associated with this type of model, the uncertainty of predicted travel times computed through these models will vary significantly with position in the Earth. Seismic event location codes require good estimates of the prediction uncertainty in order to apply appropriate weights to the various observations used to compute the locations and to calculate reliable estimates of the uncertainty of the resulting locations. The approach that we are adopting is to calculate prediction uncertainties from the tomographic matrices. Quantities that are computed along the way include the model resolution matrix, the model covariance matrix and, finally, the travel time uncertainties. We have found it necessary to include a previously ignored term in the determination of the model covariance matrix that we call the 'a priory covariance of the change in slowness', which we will describe in detail. We will also show results of all of these quantities obtained by applying the calculations to our SALSA3D model, a global P-velocity model of the Earth's mantle. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

  8. Detecting Surgical Tools by Modelling Local Appearance and Global Shape.

    PubMed

    Bouget, David; Benenson, Rodrigo; Omran, Mohamed; Riffaud, Laurent; Schiele, Bernt; Jannin, Pierre

    2015-12-01

    Detecting tools in surgical videos is an important ingredient for context-aware computer-assisted surgical systems. To this end, we present a new surgical tool detection dataset and a method for joint tool detection and pose estimation in 2d images. Our two-stage pipeline is data-driven and relaxes strong assumptions made by previous works regarding the geometry, number, and position of tools in the image. The first stage classifies each pixel based on local appearance only, while the second stage evaluates a tool-specific shape template to enforce global shape. Both local appearance and global shape are learned from training data. Our method is validated on a new surgical tool dataset of 2 476 images from neurosurgical microscopes, which is made freely available. It improves over existing datasets in size, diversity and detail of annotation. We show that our method significantly improves over competitive baselines from the computer vision field. We achieve 15% detection miss-rate at 10(-1) false positives per image (for the suction tube) over our surgical tool dataset. Results indicate that performing semantic labelling as an intermediate task is key for high quality detection.

  9. A simple model of global cascades on random networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Watts, Duncan J.

    2002-04-01

    The origin of large but rare cascades that are triggered by small initial shocks is a phenomenon that manifests itself as diversely as cultural fads, collective action, the diffusion of norms and innovations, and cascading failures in infrastructure and organizational networks. This paper presents a possible explanation of this phenomenon in terms of a sparse, random network of interacting agents whose decisions are determined by the actions of their neighbors according to a simple threshold rule. Two regimes are identified in which the network is susceptible to very large cascadesherein called global cascadesthat occur very rarely. When cascade propagation is limited by the connectivity of the network, a power law distribution of cascade sizes is observed, analogous to the cluster size distribution in standard percolation theory and avalanches in self-organized criticality. But when the network is highly connected, cascade propagation is limited instead by the local stability of the nodes themselves, and the size distribution of cascades is bimodal, implying a more extreme kind of instability that is correspondingly harder to anticipate. In the first regime, where the distribution of network neighbors is highly skewed, it is found that the most connected nodes are far more likely than average nodes to trigger cascades, but not in the second regime. Finally, it is shown that heterogeneity plays an ambiguous role in determining a system's stability: increasingly heterogeneous thresholds make the system more vulnerable to global cascades; but an increasingly heterogeneous degree distribution makes it less vulnerable.

  10. Water circulation and global mantle dynamics: Insight from numerical modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nakagawa, Takashi; Nakakuki, Tomoeki; Iwamori, Hikaru

    2015-05-01

    We investigate water circulation and its dynamical effects on global-scale mantle dynamics in numerical thermochemical mantle convection simulations. Both dehydration-hydration processes and dehydration melting are included. We also assume the rheological properties of hydrous minerals and density reduction caused by hydrous minerals. Heat transfer due to mantle convection seems to be enhanced more effectively than water cycling in the mantle convection system when reasonable water dependence of viscosity is assumed, due to effective slab dehydration at shallow depths. Water still affects significantly the global dynamics by weakening the near-surface oceanic crust and lithosphere, enhancing the activity of surface plate motion compared to dry mantle case. As a result, including hydrous minerals, the more viscous mantle is expected with several orders of magnitude compared to the dry mantle. The average water content in the whole mantle is regulated by the dehydration-hydration process. The large-scale thermochemical anomalies, as is observed in the deep mantle, is found when a large density contrast between basaltic material and ambient mantle is assumed (4-5%), comparable to mineral physics measurements. Through this study, the effects of hydrous minerals in mantle dynamics are very important for interpreting the observational constraints on mantle convection.

  11. Global vegetation model diversity and the risks of climate-driven ecosystem shifts

    SciTech Connect

    Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin

    2013-11-08

    Climate change is modifying global biogeochemical cycles, and is expected to exert increasingly large effects in the future. How these changes will in turn affect and interact with the structure and function of particular ecosystems is unclear, however, both because of scientific uncertainties and the very diversity of global vegetation models in use. Writing in Environmental Research Letters, Warszawski et al. (1) aggregate results from a group of models, across a range of emissions scenarios and climate data, to investigate these risks. Although the models frequently disagree about which specific regions are at risk, they consistently predict a greater chance of ecosystem restructuring with more warming; this risk roughly doubles between 2 and 3 °C increases in global mean temperature. The innovative work of Warszawski et al. represents an important first step towards fully consistent multi-model, multi-scenario assessments of the future risks to global ecosystems.

  12. Second International Symposium on the Biogeochemistry of Model Estuaries: Estuarine processes in global change. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Windom, H.L.

    1991-12-31

    This report summarizes estuary events discussed at the symposium on biogeochemistry. Topics include; sedimentation, salinity, inputs and outputs of the estuary, effects of global change, and the need for effective sampling and modeling of estuaries.

  13. Community Radiative Transfer Model for Aerosol Radiance Assimilation in Global and Regional Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Q.; van Delst, P. F.; Groff, D.; Collard, A.; Boukabara, S. A.; Weng, F.; Derber, J.

    2013-12-01

    and radiance assimilation in global and regional models. The CRTM AOD has been used in the WRF-chem to assimilate the MODIS AOD and improved aerosol concentration prediction. The AOD module is based on the global GOCART aerosol classification. We are including the CMAQ aerosol types for regional model. The CMAQ has more aerosol types for chemical species.

  14. A comparison of Type III metric radio bursts and global solar potential field models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jackson, B. V.; Levine, R. H.

    1981-01-01

    Evidence of coronal magnetic fields from polarized metric type III radio bursts is compared with (1) global potential field models, (2) direct averages of the observed photospheric magnetic field, and (3) H-alpha synoptic charts. The comparison clearly indicates both that the principal aspects of type III burst radiation are understood and that global potential field models are a significantly more accurate representation of coronal magnetic field structure than either the large-scale photospheric field or H-alpha synoptic charts.

  15. Interpretation of Lidar and Satellite Data Sets Using a Global Photochemical Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zenker, Thomas; Chyba, Thomas

    1999-01-01

    A primary goal of the NASA Tropospheric Chemistry Program (TCP) is to "contribute substantially to scientific understanding of human impacts on the global troposphere". In order to analyze global or regional trends and factors of the troposphere chemistry, for example, its oxidation capacity or composition, a continuous global/regional data coverage as well as model simulations are needed. The Global Tropospheric Experiment (GTE), a major component of the TCP, provides data vital to these questions via aircraft measurement of key trace chemical species in various remote regions of the world. Another component in NASA's effort are satellite projects for exploration of tropospheric chemistry and dynamics. A unique data product is the Tropospheric Ozone Residual (TOR) utilizing global tropospheric ozone data. Another key research tool are simulation studies of atmospheric chemistry and dynamics for the theoretical understanding of the atmosphere, the extrapolation of observed trends, and for sensitivity studies assessing a changing anthropogenic impact to air chemistry and climate. In the context with model simulations, field data derived from satellites or (airborne) field missions are needed for two purposes: 1. To initialize and validate model simulations, and 2., to interpret field data by comparison to model simulation results in order to analyze global or regional trends and deviations from standard tropospheric chemistry and transport conditions as defined by the simulations. Currently, there is neither a sufficient global data coverage available nor are existing well established global circulation models. The NASA LARC CTM model is currently not yet in a state to accomplish a sufficient tropospheric chemistry simulation, so that the current research under this cooperative agreement focuses on utilizing field data products for direct interpretation. They will be also available for model testing and a later interpretation with a finally utilized model.

  16. Global assessment of Vegetation Index and Phenology Lab (VIP) and Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) version 3 products

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marshall, M.; Okuto, E.; Kang, Y.; Opiyo, E.; Ahmed, M.

    2016-02-01

    Earth observation-based long-term global vegetation index products are used by scientists from a wide range of disciplines concerned with global change. Inter-comparison studies are commonly performed to keep the user community informed on the consistency and accuracy of such records as they evolve. In this study, we compared two new records: (1) Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) normalized difference vegetation index version 3 (NDVI3g) and (2) Vegetation Index and Phenology Lab (VIP) version 3 NDVI (NDVI3v) and enhanced vegetation index 2 (EVI3v). We evaluated the two records via three experiments that addressed the primary use of such records in global change research: (1) leaf area index (LAI), (2) vegetation climatology, and (3) trend analysis of the magnitude and timing of vegetation productivity. Unlike previous global studies, a unique Landsat 30 m spatial resolution and in situ LAI database for major crop types on five continents was used to evaluate the performance of not only NDVI3g and NDVI3v but also EVI3v. The performance of NDVI3v and EVI3v was worse than NDVI3g using the in situ data, which was attributed to the fusion of GIMMS and MODIS data in the VIP record. EVI3v has the potential to contribute biophysical information beyond NDVI3g and NDVI3v to global change studies, but we caution its use due to the poor performance of EVI3v in this study. Overall, the records were most consistent at northern latitudes during the primary growing season and southern latitudes and the tropics throughout much of the year, while the records were less consistent at northern latitudes during green-up and senescence, and in the great deserts of the world throughout much of the year. These patterns led to general agreement (disagreement) between trends in the magnitude (timing) of NDVI over the study period. Bias in inter-calibration of the VIP record at northernmost latitudes was suspected to contribute most to these discrepancies.

  17. Mars global reference atmosphere model (Mars-GRAM)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Justus, C. G.; James, Bonnie F.

    1992-01-01

    Mars-GRAM is an empirical model that parameterizes the temperature, pressure, density, and wind structure of the Martian atmosphere from the surface through thermospheric altitudes. In the lower atmosphere of Mars, the model is built around parameterizations of height, latitudinal, longitudinal, and seasonal variations of temperature determined from a survey of published measurements from the Mariner and Viking programs. Pressure and density are inferred from the temperature by making use of the hydrostatic and perfect gas laws relationships. For the upper atmosphere, the thermospheric model of Stewart is used. A hydrostatic interpolation routine is used to insure a smooth transition from the lower portion of the model to the Stewart thermospheric model. Other aspects of the model are discussed.

  18. Kinetic theory and models of the global heliosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Izmodenov, Vladislav

    2016-07-01

    Current state of art in the kinetic-MHD modeling of the solar/stellar wind interaction with the local interstellar medium (LISM) will be reviewed. New model results will be presented as well as compared with currently available observations from both Voyagers and Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX). Differences between model and observations will be discussed. Especial discussion will be on the recently suggested (by M. Opher and J. Drake) two-jet structure of the heliosphere.

  19. What can'(t) we do with global flood risk models?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ward, P.; Jongman, B.; Salamon, P.; Simpson, A.; Bates, P. D.; de Groeve, T.; Muis, S.; Coughlan, E.; Rudari, R.; Trigg, M. A.; Winsemius, H.

    2015-12-01

    Global flood risk models are now a reality. Initially, their development was driven by a demand from users for first-order global assessments to identify risk hotspots. Relentless upward trends in flood damage over the last decade have enhanced interest in such assessments. The adoption of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage Associated with Climate Change Impacts have made these efforts even more essential. As a result, global flood risk models are being used more and more in practice, by an increasingly large number of practitioners and decision-makers. However, they clearly have their limits compared to local models. To address these issues, a team of scientists and practitioners recently came together at the Global Flood Partnership meeting to critically assess the question 'What can('t) we do with global flood risk models?'. The results of this dialogue (Ward et al., 2013) will be presented, opening a discussion on similar broader initiatives at the science-policy interface in other natural hazards. In this contribution, examples are provided of successful applications of global flood risk models in practice (for example together with the World Bank, Red Cross, and UNISDR), and limitations and gaps between user 'wish-lists' and model capabilities are discussed. Finally, a research agenda is presented for addressing these limitations and reducing the gaps. Ward, P.J. et al., 2015. Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate2742.

  20. Robust global sensitivity analysis of a river management model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peeters, L. J. M.; Podger, G. M.; Smith, T.; Pickett, T.; Bark, R.; Cuddy, S. M.

    2014-03-01

    The simulation of routing and distribution of water through a regulated river system with a river management model will quickly results in complex and non-linear model behaviour. A robust sensitivity analysis increases the transparency of the model and provide both the modeller and the system manager with better understanding and insight on how the model simulates reality and management operations. In this study, a robust, density-based sensitivity analysis, developed by Plischke et al. (2013), is applied to an eWater Source river management model. The sensitivity analysis is extended to not only account for main but also for interaction effects and is able to identify major linear effects as well as subtle minor and non-linear effects. The case study is an idealised river management model representing typical conditions of the Southern Murray-Darling Basin in Australia for which the sensitivity of a variety of model outcomes to variations in the driving forces, inflow to the system, rainfall and potential evapotranspiration, is examined. The model outcomes are most sensitive to the inflow to the system, but the sensitivity analysis identified minor effects of potential evapotranspiration as well as non-linear interaction effects between inflow and potential evapotranspiration.

  1. The global change research center atmospheric chemistry model

    SciTech Connect

    Moraes, F.P. Jr.

    1995-01-01

    This work outlines the development of a new model of the chemistry of the natural atmosphere. The model is 2.5-dimensional, having spatial coordinates height, latitude, and