Reporting Confidence Intervals and Effect Sizes: Collecting the Evidence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zientek, Linda Reichwein; Ozel, Z. Ebrar Yetkiner; Ozel, Serkan; Allen, Jeff

2012-01-01

Confidence intervals (CIs) and effect sizes are essential to encourage meta-analytic thinking and to accumulate research findings. CIs provide a range of plausible values for population parameters with a degree of confidence that the parameter is in that particular interval. CIs also give information about how precise the estimates are. Comparison…

Empirical likelihood-based confidence intervals for mean medical cost with censored data.

PubMed

Jeyarajah, Jenny; Qin, Gengsheng

2017-11-10

In this paper, we propose empirical likelihood methods based on influence function and jackknife techniques for constructing confidence intervals for mean medical cost with censored data. We conduct a simulation study to compare the coverage probabilities and interval lengths of our proposed confidence intervals with that of the existing normal approximation-based confidence intervals and bootstrap confidence intervals. The proposed methods have better finite-sample performances than existing methods. Finally, we illustrate our proposed methods with a relevant example. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Introduction to Sample Size Choice for Confidence Intervals Based on "t" Statistics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Liu, Xiaofeng Steven; Loudermilk, Brandon; Simpson, Thomas

2014-01-01

Sample size can be chosen to achieve a specified width in a confidence interval. The probability of obtaining a narrow width given that the confidence interval includes the population parameter is defined as the power of the confidence interval, a concept unfamiliar to many practitioners. This article shows how to utilize the Statistical Analysis…

An Introduction to Confidence Intervals for Both Statistical Estimates and Effect Sizes.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Capraro, Mary Margaret

This paper summarizes methods of estimating confidence intervals, including classical intervals and intervals for effect sizes. The recent American Psychological Association (APA) Task Force on Statistical Inference report suggested that confidence intervals should always be reported, and the fifth edition of the APA "Publication Manual"…

Publication Bias in Meta-Analysis: Confidence Intervals for Rosenthal's Fail-Safe Number.

PubMed

Fragkos, Konstantinos C; Tsagris, Michail; Frangos, Christos C

2014-01-01

The purpose of the present paper is to assess the efficacy of confidence intervals for Rosenthal's fail-safe number. Although Rosenthal's estimator is highly used by researchers, its statistical properties are largely unexplored. First of all, we developed statistical theory which allowed us to produce confidence intervals for Rosenthal's fail-safe number. This was produced by discerning whether the number of studies analysed in a meta-analysis is fixed or random. Each case produces different variance estimators. For a given number of studies and a given distribution, we provided five variance estimators. Confidence intervals are examined with a normal approximation and a nonparametric bootstrap. The accuracy of the different confidence interval estimates was then tested by methods of simulation under different distributional assumptions. The half normal distribution variance estimator has the best probability coverage. Finally, we provide a table of lower confidence intervals for Rosenthal's estimator.

Publication Bias in Meta-Analysis: Confidence Intervals for Rosenthal's Fail-Safe Number

PubMed Central

Fragkos, Konstantinos C.; Tsagris, Michail; Frangos, Christos C.

2014-01-01

The purpose of the present paper is to assess the efficacy of confidence intervals for Rosenthal's fail-safe number. Although Rosenthal's estimator is highly used by researchers, its statistical properties are largely unexplored. First of all, we developed statistical theory which allowed us to produce confidence intervals for Rosenthal's fail-safe number. This was produced by discerning whether the number of studies analysed in a meta-analysis is fixed or random. Each case produces different variance estimators. For a given number of studies and a given distribution, we provided five variance estimators. Confidence intervals are examined with a normal approximation and a nonparametric bootstrap. The accuracy of the different confidence interval estimates was then tested by methods of simulation under different distributional assumptions. The half normal distribution variance estimator has the best probability coverage. Finally, we provide a table of lower confidence intervals for Rosenthal's estimator. PMID:27437470

CALCULATION OF NONLINEAR CONFIDENCE AND PREDICTION INTERVALS FOR GROUND-WATER FLOW MODELS.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cooley, Richard L.; Vecchia, Aldo V.

1987-01-01

A method is derived to efficiently compute nonlinear confidence and prediction intervals on any function of parameters derived as output from a mathematical model of a physical system. The method is applied to the problem of obtaining confidence and prediction intervals for manually-calibrated ground-water flow models. To obtain confidence and prediction intervals resulting from uncertainties in parameters, the calibrated model and information on extreme ranges and ordering of the model parameters within one or more independent groups are required. If random errors in the dependent variable are present in addition to uncertainties in parameters, then calculation of prediction intervals also requires information on the extreme range of error expected. A simple Monte Carlo method is used to compute the quantiles necessary to establish probability levels for the confidence and prediction intervals. Application of the method to a hypothetical example showed that inclusion of random errors in the dependent variable in addition to uncertainties in parameters can considerably widen the prediction intervals.

Using an R Shiny to Enhance the Learning Experience of Confidence Intervals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Williams, Immanuel James; Williams, Kelley Kim

2018-01-01

Many students find understanding confidence intervals difficult, especially because of the amalgamation of concepts such as confidence levels, standard error, point estimates and sample sizes. An R Shiny application was created to assist the learning process of confidence intervals using graphics and data from the US National Basketball…

Coefficient Alpha Bootstrap Confidence Interval under Nonnormality

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Padilla, Miguel A.; Divers, Jasmin; Newton, Matthew

2012-01-01

Three different bootstrap methods for estimating confidence intervals (CIs) for coefficient alpha were investigated. In addition, the bootstrap methods were compared with the most promising coefficient alpha CI estimation methods reported in the literature. The CI methods were assessed through a Monte Carlo simulation utilizing conditions…

Coefficient Omega Bootstrap Confidence Intervals: Nonnormal Distributions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Padilla, Miguel A.; Divers, Jasmin

2013-01-01

The performance of the normal theory bootstrap (NTB), the percentile bootstrap (PB), and the bias-corrected and accelerated (BCa) bootstrap confidence intervals (CIs) for coefficient omega was assessed through a Monte Carlo simulation under conditions not previously investigated. Of particular interests were nonnormal Likert-type and binary items.…

More accurate, calibrated bootstrap confidence intervals for correlating two autocorrelated climate time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olafsdottir, Kristin B.; Mudelsee, Manfred

2013-04-01

Estimation of the Pearson's correlation coefficient between two time series to evaluate the influences of one time depended variable on another is one of the most often used statistical method in climate sciences. Various methods are used to estimate confidence interval to support the correlation point estimate. Many of them make strong mathematical assumptions regarding distributional shape and serial correlation, which are rarely met. More robust statistical methods are needed to increase the accuracy of the confidence intervals. Bootstrap confidence intervals are estimated in the Fortran 90 program PearsonT (Mudelsee, 2003), where the main intention was to get an accurate confidence interval for correlation coefficient between two time series by taking the serial dependence of the process that generated the data into account. However, Monte Carlo experiments show that the coverage accuracy for smaller data sizes can be improved. Here we adapt the PearsonT program into a new version called PearsonT3, by calibrating the confidence interval to increase the coverage accuracy. Calibration is a bootstrap resampling technique, which basically performs a second bootstrap loop or resamples from the bootstrap resamples. It offers, like the non-calibrated bootstrap confidence intervals, robustness against the data distribution. Pairwise moving block bootstrap is used to preserve the serial correlation of both time series. The calibration is applied to standard error based bootstrap Student's t confidence intervals. The performances of the calibrated confidence intervals are examined with Monte Carlo simulations, and compared with the performances of confidence intervals without calibration, that is, PearsonT. The coverage accuracy is evidently better for the calibrated confidence intervals where the coverage error is acceptably small (i.e., within a few percentage points) already for data sizes as small as 20. One form of climate time series is output from numerical models

Confidence Intervals for the Mean: To Bootstrap or Not to Bootstrap

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Calzada, Maria E.; Gardner, Holly

2011-01-01

The results of a simulation conducted by a research team involving undergraduate and high school students indicate that when data is symmetric the student's "t" confidence interval for a mean is superior to the studied non-parametric bootstrap confidence intervals. When data is skewed and for sample sizes n greater than or equal to 10,…

Toward Using Confidence Intervals to Compare Correlations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zou, Guang Yong

2007-01-01

Confidence intervals are widely accepted as a preferred way to present study results. They encompass significance tests and provide an estimate of the magnitude of the effect. However, comparisons of correlations still rely heavily on significance testing. The persistence of this practice is caused primarily by the lack of simple yet accurate…

The P Value Problem in Otolaryngology: Shifting to Effect Sizes and Confidence Intervals.

PubMed

Vila, Peter M; Townsend, Melanie Elizabeth; Bhatt, Neel K; Kao, W Katherine; Sinha, Parul; Neely, J Gail

2017-06-01

There is a lack of reporting effect sizes and confidence intervals in the current biomedical literature. The objective of this article is to present a discussion of the recent paradigm shift encouraging the use of reporting effect sizes and confidence intervals. Although P values help to inform us about whether an effect exists due to chance, effect sizes inform us about the magnitude of the effect (clinical significance), and confidence intervals inform us about the range of plausible estimates for the general population mean (precision). Reporting effect sizes and confidence intervals is a necessary addition to the biomedical literature, and these concepts are reviewed in this article.

Confidence intervals in Flow Forecasting by using artificial neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panagoulia, Dionysia; Tsekouras, George

2014-05-01

One of the major inadequacies in implementation of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) for flow forecasting is the development of confidence intervals, because the relevant estimation cannot be implemented directly, contrasted to the classical forecasting methods. The variation in the ANN output is a measure of uncertainty in the model predictions based on the training data set. Different methods for uncertainty analysis, such as bootstrap, Bayesian, Monte Carlo, have already proposed for hydrologic and geophysical models, while methods for confidence intervals, such as error output, re-sampling, multi-linear regression adapted to ANN have been used for power load forecasting [1-2]. The aim of this paper is to present the re-sampling method for ANN prediction models and to develop this for flow forecasting of the next day. The re-sampling method is based on the ascending sorting of the errors between real and predicted values for all input vectors. The cumulative sample distribution function of the prediction errors is calculated and the confidence intervals are estimated by keeping the intermediate value, rejecting the extreme values according to the desired confidence levels, and holding the intervals symmetrical in probability. For application of the confidence intervals issue, input vectors are used from the Mesochora catchment in western-central Greece. The ANN's training algorithm is the stochastic training back-propagation process with decreasing functions of learning rate and momentum term, for which an optimization process is conducted regarding the crucial parameters values, such as the number of neurons, the kind of activation functions, the initial values and time parameters of learning rate and momentum term etc. Input variables are historical data of previous days, such as flows, nonlinearly weather related temperatures and nonlinearly weather related rainfalls based on correlation analysis between the under prediction flow and each implicit input

Using Screencast Videos to Enhance Undergraduate Students' Statistical Reasoning about Confidence Intervals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Strazzeri, Kenneth Charles

2013-01-01

The purposes of this study were to investigate (a) undergraduate students' reasoning about the concepts of confidence intervals (b) undergraduate students' interactions with "well-designed" screencast videos on sampling distributions and confidence intervals, and (c) how screencast videos improve undergraduate students' reasoning ability…

The Applicability of Confidence Intervals of Quantiles for the Generalized Logistic Distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, H.; Heo, J.; Kim, T.; Jung, Y.

2007-12-01

The generalized logistic (GL) distribution has been widely used for frequency analysis. However, there is a little study related to the confidence intervals that indicate the prediction accuracy of distribution for the GL distribution. In this paper, the estimation of the confidence intervals of quantiles for the GL distribution is presented based on the method of moments (MOM), maximum likelihood (ML), and probability weighted moments (PWM) and the asymptotic variances of each quantile estimator are derived as functions of the sample sizes, return periods, and parameters. Monte Carlo simulation experiments are also performed to verify the applicability of the derived confidence intervals of quantile. As the results, the relative bias (RBIAS) and relative root mean square error (RRMSE) of the confidence intervals generally increase as return period increases and reverse as sample size increases. And PWM for estimating the confidence intervals performs better than the other methods in terms of RRMSE when the data is almost symmetric while ML shows the smallest RBIAS and RRMSE when the data is more skewed and sample size is moderately large. The GL model was applied to fit the distribution of annual maximum rainfall data. The results show that there are little differences in the estimated quantiles between ML and PWM while distinct differences in MOM.

Quantifying uncertainty on sediment loads using bootstrap confidence intervals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slaets, Johanna I. F.; Piepho, Hans-Peter; Schmitter, Petra; Hilger, Thomas; Cadisch, Georg

2017-01-01

Load estimates are more informative than constituent concentrations alone, as they allow quantification of on- and off-site impacts of environmental processes concerning pollutants, nutrients and sediment, such as soil fertility loss, reservoir sedimentation and irrigation channel siltation. While statistical models used to predict constituent concentrations have been developed considerably over the last few years, measures of uncertainty on constituent loads are rarely reported. Loads are the product of two predictions, constituent concentration and discharge, integrated over a time period, which does not make it straightforward to produce a standard error or a confidence interval. In this paper, a linear mixed model is used to estimate sediment concentrations. A bootstrap method is then developed that accounts for the uncertainty in the concentration and discharge predictions, allowing temporal correlation in the constituent data, and can be used when data transformations are required. The method was tested for a small watershed in Northwest Vietnam for the period 2010-2011. The results showed that confidence intervals were asymmetric, with the highest uncertainty in the upper limit, and that a load of 6262 Mg year-1 had a 95 % confidence interval of (4331, 12 267) in 2010 and a load of 5543 Mg an interval of (3593, 8975) in 2011. Additionally, the approach demonstrated that direct estimates from the data were biased downwards compared to bootstrap median estimates. These results imply that constituent loads predicted from regression-type water quality models could frequently be underestimating sediment yields and their environmental impact.

Confidence intervals for expected moments algorithm flood quantile estimates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cohn, Timothy A.; Lane, William L.; Stedinger, Jery R.

2001-01-01

Historical and paleoflood information can substantially improve flood frequency estimates if appropriate statistical procedures are properly applied. However, the Federal guidelines for flood frequency analysis, set forth in Bulletin 17B, rely on an inefficient “weighting” procedure that fails to take advantage of historical and paleoflood information. This has led researchers to propose several more efficient alternatives including the Expected Moments Algorithm (EMA), which is attractive because it retains Bulletin 17B's statistical structure (method of moments with the Log Pearson Type 3 distribution) and thus can be easily integrated into flood analyses employing the rest of the Bulletin 17B approach. The practical utility of EMA, however, has been limited because no closed‐form method has been available for quantifying the uncertainty of EMA‐based flood quantile estimates. This paper addresses that concern by providing analytical expressions for the asymptotic variance of EMA flood‐quantile estimators and confidence intervals for flood quantile estimates. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate the properties of such confidence intervals for sites where a 25‐ to 100‐year streamgage record is augmented by 50 to 150 years of historical information. The experiments show that the confidence intervals, though not exact, should be acceptable for most purposes.

Applying Bootstrap Resampling to Compute Confidence Intervals for Various Statistics with R

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dogan, C. Deha

2017-01-01

Background: Most of the studies in academic journals use p values to represent statistical significance. However, this is not a good indicator of practical significance. Although confidence intervals provide information about the precision of point estimation, they are, unfortunately, rarely used. The infrequent use of confidence intervals might…

Confidence intervals for population allele frequencies: the general case of sampling from a finite diploid population of any size.

PubMed

Fung, Tak; Keenan, Kevin

2014-01-01

The estimation of population allele frequencies using sample data forms a central component of studies in population genetics. These estimates can be used to test hypotheses on the evolutionary processes governing changes in genetic variation among populations. However, existing studies frequently do not account for sampling uncertainty in these estimates, thus compromising their utility. Incorporation of this uncertainty has been hindered by the lack of a method for constructing confidence intervals containing the population allele frequencies, for the general case of sampling from a finite diploid population of any size. In this study, we address this important knowledge gap by presenting a rigorous mathematical method to construct such confidence intervals. For a range of scenarios, the method is used to demonstrate that for a particular allele, in order to obtain accurate estimates within 0.05 of the population allele frequency with high probability (> or = 95%), a sample size of > 30 is often required. This analysis is augmented by an application of the method to empirical sample allele frequency data for two populations of the checkerspot butterfly (Melitaea cinxia L.), occupying meadows in Finland. For each population, the method is used to derive > or = 98.3% confidence intervals for the population frequencies of three alleles. These intervals are then used to construct two joint > or = 95% confidence regions, one for the set of three frequencies for each population. These regions are then used to derive a > or = 95%% confidence interval for Jost's D, a measure of genetic differentiation between the two populations. Overall, the results demonstrate the practical utility of the method with respect to informing sampling design and accounting for sampling uncertainty in studies of population genetics, important for scientific hypothesis-testing and also for risk-based natural resource management.

Confidence Interval Coverage for Cohen's Effect Size Statistic

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Algina, James; Keselman, H. J.; Penfield, Randall D.

2006-01-01

Kelley compared three methods for setting a confidence interval (CI) around Cohen's standardized mean difference statistic: the noncentral-"t"-based, percentile (PERC) bootstrap, and biased-corrected and accelerated (BCA) bootstrap methods under three conditions of nonnormality, eight cases of sample size, and six cases of population…

Using Asymptotic Results to Obtain a Confidence Interval for the Population Median

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jamshidian, M.; Khatoonabadi, M.

2007-01-01

Almost all introductory and intermediate level statistics textbooks include the topic of confidence interval for the population mean. Almost all these texts introduce the median as a robust measure of central tendency. Only a few of these books, however, cover inference on the population median and in particular confidence interval for the median.…

Sample size planning for composite reliability coefficients: accuracy in parameter estimation via narrow confidence intervals.

PubMed

Terry, Leann; Kelley, Ken

2012-11-01

Composite measures play an important role in psychology and related disciplines. Composite measures almost always have error. Correspondingly, it is important to understand the reliability of the scores from any particular composite measure. However, the point estimates of the reliability of composite measures are fallible and thus all such point estimates should be accompanied by a confidence interval. When confidence intervals are wide, there is much uncertainty in the population value of the reliability coefficient. Given the importance of reporting confidence intervals for estimates of reliability, coupled with the undesirability of wide confidence intervals, we develop methods that allow researchers to plan sample size in order to obtain narrow confidence intervals for population reliability coefficients. We first discuss composite reliability coefficients and then provide a discussion on confidence interval formation for the corresponding population value. Using the accuracy in parameter estimation approach, we develop two methods to obtain accurate estimates of reliability by planning sample size. The first method provides a way to plan sample size so that the expected confidence interval width for the population reliability coefficient is sufficiently narrow. The second method ensures that the confidence interval width will be sufficiently narrow with some desired degree of assurance (e.g., 99% assurance that the 95% confidence interval for the population reliability coefficient will be less than W units wide). The effectiveness of our methods was verified with Monte Carlo simulation studies. We demonstrate how to easily implement the methods with easy-to-use and freely available software. ©2011 The British Psychological Society.

Improved confidence intervals when the sample is counted an integer times longer than the blank.

PubMed

Potter, William Edward; Strzelczyk, Jadwiga Jodi

2011-05-01

Past computer solutions for confidence intervals in paired counting are extended to the case where the ratio of the sample count time to the blank count time is taken to be an integer, IRR. Previously, confidence intervals have been named Neyman-Pearson confidence intervals; more correctly they should have been named Neyman confidence intervals or simply confidence intervals. The technique utilized mimics a technique used by Pearson and Hartley to tabulate confidence intervals for the expected value of the discrete Poisson and Binomial distributions. The blank count and the contribution of the sample to the gross count are assumed to be Poisson distributed. The expected value of the blank count, in the sample count time, is assumed known. The net count, OC, is taken to be the gross count minus the product of IRR with the blank count. The probability density function (PDF) for the net count can be determined in a straightforward manner.

Confidence Intervals for True Scores Using the Skew-Normal Distribution

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Garcia-Perez, Miguel A.

2010-01-01

A recent comparative analysis of alternative interval estimation approaches and procedures has shown that confidence intervals (CIs) for true raw scores determined with the Score method--which uses the normal approximation to the binomial distribution--have actual coverage probabilities that are closest to their nominal level. It has also recently…

Likelihood-based confidence intervals for estimating floods with given return periods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martins, Eduardo Sávio P. R.; Clarke, Robin T.

1993-06-01

This paper discusses aspects of the calculation of likelihood-based confidence intervals for T-year floods, with particular reference to (1) the two-parameter gamma distribution; (2) the Gumbel distribution; (3) the two-parameter log-normal distribution, and other distributions related to the normal by Box-Cox transformations. Calculation of the confidence limits is straightforward using the Nelder-Mead algorithm with a constraint incorporated, although care is necessary to ensure convergence either of the Nelder-Mead algorithm, or of the Newton-Raphson calculation of maximum-likelihood estimates. Methods are illustrated using records from 18 gauging stations in the basin of the River Itajai-Acu, State of Santa Catarina, southern Brazil. A small and restricted simulation compared likelihood-based confidence limits with those given by use of the central limit theorem; for the same confidence probability, the confidence limits of the simulation were wider than those of the central limit theorem, which failed more frequently to contain the true quantile being estimated. The paper discusses possible applications of likelihood-based confidence intervals in other areas of hydrological analysis.

Confidence intervals for the population mean tailored to small sample sizes, with applications to survey sampling.

PubMed

Rosenblum, Michael A; Laan, Mark J van der

2009-01-07

The validity of standard confidence intervals constructed in survey sampling is based on the central limit theorem. For small sample sizes, the central limit theorem may give a poor approximation, resulting in confidence intervals that are misleading. We discuss this issue and propose methods for constructing confidence intervals for the population mean tailored to small sample sizes. We present a simple approach for constructing confidence intervals for the population mean based on tail bounds for the sample mean that are correct for all sample sizes. Bernstein's inequality provides one such tail bound. The resulting confidence intervals have guaranteed coverage probability under much weaker assumptions than are required for standard methods. A drawback of this approach, as we show, is that these confidence intervals are often quite wide. In response to this, we present a method for constructing much narrower confidence intervals, which are better suited for practical applications, and that are still more robust than confidence intervals based on standard methods, when dealing with small sample sizes. We show how to extend our approaches to much more general estimation problems than estimating the sample mean. We describe how these methods can be used to obtain more reliable confidence intervals in survey sampling. As a concrete example, we construct confidence intervals using our methods for the number of violent deaths between March 2003 and July 2006 in Iraq, based on data from the study "Mortality after the 2003 invasion of Iraq: A cross sectional cluster sample survey," by Burnham et al. (2006).

Confidence Intervals from Realizations of Simulated Nuclear Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Younes, W.; Ratkiewicz, A.; Ressler, J. J.

2017-09-28

Various statistical techniques are discussed that can be used to assign a level of confidence in the prediction of models that depend on input data with known uncertainties and correlations. The particular techniques reviewed in this paper are: 1) random realizations of the input data using Monte-Carlo methods, 2) the construction of confidence intervals to assess the reliability of model predictions, and 3) resampling techniques to impose statistical constraints on the input data based on additional information. These techniques are illustrated with a calculation of the keff value, based on the 235U(n, f) and 239Pu (n, f) cross sections.

Likelihood-Based Confidence Intervals in Exploratory Factor Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oort, Frans J.

2011-01-01

In exploratory or unrestricted factor analysis, all factor loadings are free to be estimated. In oblique solutions, the correlations between common factors are free to be estimated as well. The purpose of this article is to show how likelihood-based confidence intervals can be obtained for rotated factor loadings and factor correlations, by…

The Distribution of the Product Explains Normal Theory Mediation Confidence Interval Estimation.

PubMed

Kisbu-Sakarya, Yasemin; MacKinnon, David P; Miočević, Milica

2014-05-01

The distribution of the product has several useful applications. One of these applications is its use to form confidence intervals for the indirect effect as the product of 2 regression coefficients. The purpose of this article is to investigate how the moments of the distribution of the product explain normal theory mediation confidence interval coverage and imbalance. Values of the critical ratio for each random variable are used to demonstrate how the moments of the distribution of the product change across values of the critical ratio observed in research studies. Results of the simulation study showed that as skewness in absolute value increases, coverage decreases. And as skewness in absolute value and kurtosis increases, imbalance increases. The difference between testing the significance of the indirect effect using the normal theory versus the asymmetric distribution of the product is further illustrated with a real data example. This article is the first study to show the direct link between the distribution of the product and indirect effect confidence intervals and clarifies the results of previous simulation studies by showing why normal theory confidence intervals for indirect effects are often less accurate than those obtained from the asymmetric distribution of the product or from resampling methods.

Four Bootstrap Confidence Intervals for the Binomial-Error Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lin, Miao-Hsiang; Hsiung, Chao A.

1992-01-01

Four bootstrap methods are identified for constructing confidence intervals for the binomial-error model. The extent to which similar results are obtained and the theoretical foundation of each method and its relevance and ranges of modeling the true score uncertainty are discussed. (SLD)

Profile-likelihood Confidence Intervals in Item Response Theory Models.

PubMed

Chalmers, R Philip; Pek, Jolynn; Liu, Yang

2017-01-01

Confidence intervals (CIs) are fundamental inferential devices which quantify the sampling variability of parameter estimates. In item response theory, CIs have been primarily obtained from large-sample Wald-type approaches based on standard error estimates, derived from the observed or expected information matrix, after parameters have been estimated via maximum likelihood. An alternative approach to constructing CIs is to quantify sampling variability directly from the likelihood function with a technique known as profile-likelihood confidence intervals (PL CIs). In this article, we introduce PL CIs for item response theory models, compare PL CIs to classical large-sample Wald-type CIs, and demonstrate important distinctions among these CIs. CIs are then constructed for parameters directly estimated in the specified model and for transformed parameters which are often obtained post-estimation. Monte Carlo simulation results suggest that PL CIs perform consistently better than Wald-type CIs for both non-transformed and transformed parameters.

A Comparison of Methods for Estimating Confidence Intervals for Omega-Squared Effect Size

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Finch, W. Holmes; French, Brian F.

2012-01-01

Effect size use has been increasing in the past decade in many research areas. Confidence intervals associated with effect sizes are encouraged to be reported. Prior work has investigated the performance of confidence interval estimation with Cohen's d. This study extends this line of work to the analysis of variance case with more than two…

Confidence intervals for a difference between lognormal means in cluster randomization trials.

PubMed

Poirier, Julia; Zou, G Y; Koval, John

2017-04-01

Cluster randomization trials, in which intact social units are randomized to different interventions, have become popular in the last 25 years. Outcomes from these trials in many cases are positively skewed, following approximately lognormal distributions. When inference is focused on the difference between treatment arm arithmetic means, existent confidence interval procedures either make restricting assumptions or are complex to implement. We approach this problem by assuming log-transformed outcomes from each treatment arm follow a one-way random effects model. The treatment arm means are functions of multiple parameters for which separate confidence intervals are readily available, suggesting that the method of variance estimates recovery may be applied to obtain closed-form confidence intervals. A simulation study showed that this simple approach performs well in small sample sizes in terms of empirical coverage, relatively balanced tail errors, and interval widths as compared to existing methods. The methods are illustrated using data arising from a cluster randomization trial investigating a critical pathway for the treatment of community acquired pneumonia.

Reducing the width of confidence intervals for the difference between two population means by inverting adaptive tests.

PubMed

O'Gorman, Thomas W

2018-05-01

In the last decade, it has been shown that an adaptive testing method could be used, along with the Robbins-Monro search procedure, to obtain confidence intervals that are often narrower than traditional confidence intervals. However, these confidence interval limits require a great deal of computation and some familiarity with stochastic search methods. We propose a method for estimating the limits of confidence intervals that uses only a few tests of significance. We compare these limits to those obtained by a lengthy Robbins-Monro stochastic search and find that the proposed method is nearly as accurate as the Robbins-Monro search. Adaptive confidence intervals that are produced by the proposed method are often narrower than traditional confidence intervals when the distributions are long-tailed, skewed, or bimodal. Moreover, the proposed method of estimating confidence interval limits is easy to understand, because it is based solely on the p-values from a few tests of significance.

Robust Confidence Interval for a Ratio of Standard Deviations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bonett, Douglas G.

2006-01-01

Comparing variability of test scores across alternate forms, test conditions, or subpopulations is a fundamental problem in psychometrics. A confidence interval for a ratio of standard deviations is proposed that performs as well as the classic method with normal distributions and performs dramatically better with nonnormal distributions. A simple…

Quantitative imaging biomarkers: Effect of sample size and bias on confidence interval coverage.

PubMed

Obuchowski, Nancy A; Bullen, Jennifer

2017-01-01

Introduction Quantitative imaging biomarkers (QIBs) are being increasingly used in medical practice and clinical trials. An essential first step in the adoption of a quantitative imaging biomarker is the characterization of its technical performance, i.e. precision and bias, through one or more performance studies. Then, given the technical performance, a confidence interval for a new patient's true biomarker value can be constructed. Estimating bias and precision can be problematic because rarely are both estimated in the same study, precision studies are usually quite small, and bias cannot be measured when there is no reference standard. Methods A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted to assess factors affecting nominal coverage of confidence intervals for a new patient's quantitative imaging biomarker measurement and for change in the quantitative imaging biomarker over time. Factors considered include sample size for estimating bias and precision, effect of fixed and non-proportional bias, clustered data, and absence of a reference standard. Results Technical performance studies of a quantitative imaging biomarker should include at least 35 test-retest subjects to estimate precision and 65 cases to estimate bias. Confidence intervals for a new patient's quantitative imaging biomarker measurement constructed under the no-bias assumption provide nominal coverage as long as the fixed bias is <12%. For confidence intervals of the true change over time, linearity must hold and the slope of the regression of the measurements vs. true values should be between 0.95 and 1.05. The regression slope can be assessed adequately as long as fixed multiples of the measurand can be generated. Even small non-proportional bias greatly reduces confidence interval coverage. Multiple lesions in the same subject can be treated as independent when estimating precision. Conclusion Technical performance studies of quantitative imaging biomarkers require moderate sample sizes in

Calculation of the confidence intervals for transformation parameters in the registration of medical images

PubMed Central

Bansal, Ravi; Staib, Lawrence H.; Laine, Andrew F.; Xu, Dongrong; Liu, Jun; Posecion, Lainie F.; Peterson, Bradley S.

2010-01-01

Images from different individuals typically cannot be registered precisely because anatomical features within the images differ across the people imaged and because the current methods for image registration have inherent technological limitations that interfere with perfect registration. Quantifying the inevitable error in image registration is therefore of crucial importance in assessing the effects that image misregistration may have on subsequent analyses in an imaging study. We have developed a mathematical framework for quantifying errors in registration by computing the confidence intervals of the estimated parameters (3 translations, 3 rotations, and 1 global scale) for the similarity transformation. The presence of noise in images and the variability in anatomy across individuals ensures that estimated registration parameters are always random variables. We assume a functional relation among intensities across voxels in the images, and we use the theory of nonlinear, least-squares estimation to show that the parameters are multivariate Gaussian distributed. We then use the covariance matrix of this distribution to compute the confidence intervals of the transformation parameters. These confidence intervals provide a quantitative assessment of the registration error across the images. Because transformation parameters are nonlinearly related to the coordinates of landmark points in the brain, we subsequently show that the coordinates of those landmark points are also multivariate Gaussian distributed. Using these distributions, we then compute the confidence intervals of the coordinates for landmark points in the image. Each of these confidence intervals in turn provides a quantitative assessment of the registration error at a particular landmark point. Because our method is computationally intensive, however, its current implementation is limited to assessing the error of the parameters in the similarity transformation across images. We assessed the

Closed-form confidence intervals for functions of the normal mean and standard deviation.

PubMed

Donner, Allan; Zou, G Y

2012-08-01

Confidence interval methods for a normal mean and standard deviation are well known and simple to apply. However, the same cannot be said for important functions of these parameters. These functions include the normal distribution percentiles, the Bland-Altman limits of agreement, the coefficient of variation and Cohen's effect size. We present a simple approach to this problem by using variance estimates recovered from confidence limits computed for the mean and standard deviation separately. All resulting confidence intervals have closed forms. Simulation results demonstrate that this approach performs very well for limits of agreement, coefficients of variation and their differences.

Confidence Intervals for Proportion Estimates in Complex Samples. Research Report. ETS RR-06-21

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oranje, Andreas

2006-01-01

Confidence intervals are an important tool to indicate uncertainty of estimates and to give an idea of probable values of an estimate if a different sample from the population was drawn or a different sample of measures was used. Standard symmetric confidence intervals for proportion estimates based on a normal approximation can yield bounds…

Evaluating Independent Proportions for Statistical Difference, Equivalence, Indeterminacy, and Trivial Difference Using Inferential Confidence Intervals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tryon, Warren W.; Lewis, Charles

2009-01-01

Tryon presented a graphic inferential confidence interval (ICI) approach to analyzing two independent and dependent means for statistical difference, equivalence, replication, indeterminacy, and trivial difference. Tryon and Lewis corrected the reduction factor used to adjust descriptive confidence intervals (DCIs) to create ICIs and introduced…

Pregnancy outcome in joint hypermobility syndrome and Ehlers-Danlos syndrome.

PubMed

Sundelin, Heléne E K; Stephansson, Olof; Johansson, Kari; Ludvigsson, Jonas F

2017-01-01

An increased risk of preterm birth in women with joint hypermobility syndrome or Ehlers-Danlos syndrome is suspected. In this nationwide cohort study from 1997 through 2011, women with either joint hypermobility syndrome or Ehlers-Danlos syndrome or both disorders were identified through the Swedish Patient Register, and linked to the Medical Birth Register. Thereby, 314 singleton births to women with joint hypermobility syndrome/Ehlers-Danlos syndrome before delivery were identified. These births were compared with 1 247 864 singleton births to women without a diagnosis of joint hypermobility syndrome/Ehlers-Danlos syndrome. We used logistic regression, adjusted for maternal age, smoking, parity, and year of birth, to calculate adjusted odds ratios for adverse pregnancy outcomes. Maternal joint hypermobility syndrome/Ehlers-Danlos syndrome was not associated with any of our outcomes: preterm birth (adjusted odds ratio = 0.6, 95% confidence interval 0.3-1.2), preterm premature rupture of membranes (adjusted odds ratio = 0.8; 95% confidence interval 0.3-2.2), cesarean section (adjusted odds ratio = 0.9, 95% confidence interval 0.7-1.2), stillbirth (adjusted odds ratio = 1.1, 95% confidence interval 0.2-7.9), low Apgar score (adjusted odds ratio = 1.6, 95% confidence interval 0.7-3.6), small for gestational age (adjusted odds ratio = 0.9, 95% confidence interval 0.4-1.8) or large for gestational age (adjusted odds ratio = 1.2, 95% confidence interval 0.6-2.1). Examining only women with Ehlers-Danlos syndrome (n = 62), we found a higher risk of induction of labor (adjusted odds ratio = 2.6; 95% confidence interval 1.4-4.6) and amniotomy (adjusted odds ratio = 3.8; 95% confidence interval 2.0-7.1). No excess risks for adverse pregnancy outcome were seen in joint hypermobility syndrome. Women with joint hypermobility syndrome/Ehlers-Danlos syndrome do not seem to be at increased risk of adverse pregnancy outcome. © 2016 Nordic Federation of

Confidence Intervals for Weighted Composite Scores under the Compound Binomial Error Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kim, Kyung Yong; Lee, Won-Chan

2018-01-01

Reporting confidence intervals with test scores helps test users make important decisions about examinees by providing information about the precision of test scores. Although a variety of estimation procedures based on the binomial error model are available for computing intervals for test scores, these procedures assume that items are randomly…

Calculation of Confidence Intervals for the Maximum Magnitude of Earthquakes in Different Seismotectonic Zones of Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salamat, Mona; Zare, Mehdi; Holschneider, Matthias; Zöller, Gert

2017-03-01

The problem of estimating the maximum possible earthquake magnitude m_max has attracted growing attention in recent years. Due to sparse data, the role of uncertainties becomes crucial. In this work, we determine the uncertainties related to the maximum magnitude in terms of confidence intervals. Using an earthquake catalog of Iran, m_max is estimated for different predefined levels of confidence in six seismotectonic zones. Assuming the doubly truncated Gutenberg-Richter distribution as a statistical model for earthquake magnitudes, confidence intervals for the maximum possible magnitude of earthquakes are calculated in each zone. While the lower limit of the confidence interval is the magnitude of the maximum observed event,the upper limit is calculated from the catalog and the statistical model. For this aim, we use the original catalog which no declustering methods applied on as well as a declustered version of the catalog. Based on the study by Holschneider et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 101(4):1649-1659, 2011), the confidence interval for m_max is frequently unbounded, especially if high levels of confidence are required. In this case, no information is gained from the data. Therefore, we elaborate for which settings finite confidence levels are obtained. In this work, Iran is divided into six seismotectonic zones, namely Alborz, Azerbaijan, Zagros, Makran, Kopet Dagh, Central Iran. Although calculations of the confidence interval in Central Iran and Zagros seismotectonic zones are relatively acceptable for meaningful levels of confidence, results in Kopet Dagh, Alborz, Azerbaijan and Makran are not that much promising. The results indicate that estimating m_max from an earthquake catalog for reasonable levels of confidence alone is almost impossible.

Confidence Intervals for Assessing Heterogeneity in Generalized Linear Mixed Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wagler, Amy E.

2014-01-01

Generalized linear mixed models are frequently applied to data with clustered categorical outcomes. The effect of clustering on the response is often difficult to practically assess partly because it is reported on a scale on which comparisons with regression parameters are difficult to make. This article proposes confidence intervals for…

Bootstrap Confidence Intervals for Ordinary Least Squares Factor Loadings and Correlations in Exploratory Factor Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhang, Guangjian; Preacher, Kristopher J.; Luo, Shanhong

2010-01-01

This article is concerned with using the bootstrap to assign confidence intervals for rotated factor loadings and factor correlations in ordinary least squares exploratory factor analysis. Coverage performances of "SE"-based intervals, percentile intervals, bias-corrected percentile intervals, bias-corrected accelerated percentile…

Robust misinterpretation of confidence intervals.

PubMed

Hoekstra, Rink; Morey, Richard D; Rouder, Jeffrey N; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

2014-10-01

Null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) is undoubtedly the most common inferential technique used to justify claims in the social sciences. However, even staunch defenders of NHST agree that its outcomes are often misinterpreted. Confidence intervals (CIs) have frequently been proposed as a more useful alternative to NHST, and their use is strongly encouraged in the APA Manual. Nevertheless, little is known about how researchers interpret CIs. In this study, 120 researchers and 442 students-all in the field of psychology-were asked to assess the truth value of six particular statements involving different interpretations of a CI. Although all six statements were false, both researchers and students endorsed, on average, more than three statements, indicating a gross misunderstanding of CIs. Self-declared experience with statistics was not related to researchers' performance, and, even more surprisingly, researchers hardly outperformed the students, even though the students had not received any education on statistical inference whatsoever. Our findings suggest that many researchers do not know the correct interpretation of a CI. The misunderstandings surrounding p-values and CIs are particularly unfortunate because they constitute the main tools by which psychologists draw conclusions from data.

ScoreRel CI: An Excel Program for Computing Confidence Intervals for Commonly Used Score Reliability Coefficients

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barnette, J. Jackson

2005-01-01

An Excel program developed to assist researchers in the determination and presentation of confidence intervals around commonly used score reliability coefficients is described. The software includes programs to determine confidence intervals for Cronbachs alpha, Pearson r-based coefficients such as those used in test-retest and alternate forms…

Calculating Confidence Intervals for Regional Economic Impacts of Recreastion by Bootstrapping Visitor Expenditures

Treesearch

Donald B.K. English

2000-01-01

In this paper I use bootstrap procedures to develop confidence intervals for estimates of total industrial output generated per thousand tourist visits. Mean expenditures from replicated visitor expenditure data included weights to correct for response bias. Impacts were estimated with IMPLAN. Ninety percent interval endpoints were 6 to 16 percent above or below the...

Standardized likelihood ratio test for comparing several log-normal means and confidence interval for the common mean.

PubMed

Krishnamoorthy, K; Oral, Evrim

2017-12-01

Standardized likelihood ratio test (SLRT) for testing the equality of means of several log-normal distributions is proposed. The properties of the SLRT and an available modified likelihood ratio test (MLRT) and a generalized variable (GV) test are evaluated by Monte Carlo simulation and compared. Evaluation studies indicate that the SLRT is accurate even for small samples, whereas the MLRT could be quite liberal for some parameter values, and the GV test is in general conservative and less powerful than the SLRT. Furthermore, a closed-form approximate confidence interval for the common mean of several log-normal distributions is developed using the method of variance estimate recovery, and compared with the generalized confidence interval with respect to coverage probabilities and precision. Simulation studies indicate that the proposed confidence interval is accurate and better than the generalized confidence interval in terms of coverage probabilities. The methods are illustrated using two examples.

Accuracy in parameter estimation for targeted effects in structural equation modeling: sample size planning for narrow confidence intervals.

PubMed

Lai, Keke; Kelley, Ken

2011-06-01

In addition to evaluating a structural equation model (SEM) as a whole, often the model parameters are of interest and confidence intervals for those parameters are formed. Given a model with a good overall fit, it is entirely possible for the targeted effects of interest to have very wide confidence intervals, thus giving little information about the magnitude of the population targeted effects. With the goal of obtaining sufficiently narrow confidence intervals for the model parameters of interest, sample size planning methods for SEM are developed from the accuracy in parameter estimation approach. One method plans for the sample size so that the expected confidence interval width is sufficiently narrow. An extended procedure ensures that the obtained confidence interval will be no wider than desired, with some specified degree of assurance. A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted that verified the effectiveness of the procedures in realistic situations. The methods developed have been implemented in the MBESS package in R so that they can be easily applied by researchers. © 2011 American Psychological Association

Exact Scheffé-type confidence intervals for output from groundwater flow models: 1. Use of hydrogeologic information

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cooley, Richard L.

1993-01-01

A new method is developed to efficiently compute exact Scheffé-type confidence intervals for output (or other function of parameters) g(β) derived from a groundwater flow model. The method is general in that parameter uncertainty can be specified by any statistical distribution having a log probability density function (log pdf) that can be expanded in a Taylor series. However, for this study parameter uncertainty is specified by a statistical multivariate beta distribution that incorporates hydrogeologic information in the form of the investigator's best estimates of parameters and a grouping of random variables representing possible parameter values so that each group is defined by maximum and minimum bounds and an ordering according to increasing value. The new method forms the confidence intervals from maximum and minimum limits of g(β) on a contour of a linear combination of (1) the quadratic form for the parameters used by Cooley and Vecchia (1987) and (2) the log pdf for the multivariate beta distribution. Three example problems are used to compare characteristics of the confidence intervals for hydraulic head obtained using different weights for the linear combination. Different weights generally produced similar confidence intervals, whereas the method of Cooley and Vecchia (1987) often produced much larger confidence intervals.

Teach a Confidence Interval for the Median in the First Statistics Course

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Howington, Eric B.

2017-01-01

Few introductory statistics courses consider statistical inference for the median. This article argues in favour of adding a confidence interval for the median to the first statistics course. Several methods suitable for introductory statistics students are identified and briefly reviewed.

Reliability of confidence intervals calculated by bootstrap and classical methods using the FIA 1-ha plot design

Treesearch

H. T. Schreuder; M. S. Williams

2000-01-01

In simulation sampling from forest populations using sample sizes of 20, 40, and 60 plots respectively, confidence intervals based on the bootstrap (accelerated, percentile, and t-distribution based) were calculated and compared with those based on the classical t confidence intervals for mapped populations and subdomains within those populations. A 68.1 ha mapped...

Exact Scheffé-type confidence intervals for output from groundwater flow models: 2. Combined use of hydrogeologic information and calibration data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cooley, Richard L.

1993-01-01

Calibration data (observed values corresponding to model-computed values of dependent variables) are incorporated into a general method of computing exact Scheffé-type confidence intervals analogous to the confidence intervals developed in part 1 (Cooley, this issue) for a function of parameters derived from a groundwater flow model. Parameter uncertainty is specified by a distribution of parameters conditioned on the calibration data. This distribution was obtained as a posterior distribution by applying Bayes' theorem to the hydrogeologically derived prior distribution of parameters from part 1 and a distribution of differences between the calibration data and corresponding model-computed dependent variables. Tests show that the new confidence intervals can be much smaller than the intervals of part 1 because the prior parameter variance-covariance structure is altered so that combinations of parameters that give poor model fit to the data are unlikely. The confidence intervals of part 1 and the new confidence intervals can be effectively employed in a sequential method of model construction whereby new information is used to reduce confidence interval widths at each stage.

Confidence intervals for the between-study variance in random-effects meta-analysis using generalised heterogeneity statistics: should we use unequal tails?

PubMed

Jackson, Dan; Bowden, Jack

2016-09-07

Confidence intervals for the between study variance are useful in random-effects meta-analyses because they quantify the uncertainty in the corresponding point estimates. Methods for calculating these confidence intervals have been developed that are based on inverting hypothesis tests using generalised heterogeneity statistics. Whilst, under the random effects model, these new methods furnish confidence intervals with the correct coverage, the resulting intervals are usually very wide, making them uninformative. We discuss a simple strategy for obtaining 95 % confidence intervals for the between-study variance with a markedly reduced width, whilst retaining the nominal coverage probability. Specifically, we consider the possibility of using methods based on generalised heterogeneity statistics with unequal tail probabilities, where the tail probability used to compute the upper bound is greater than 2.5 %. This idea is assessed using four real examples and a variety of simulation studies. Supporting analytical results are also obtained. Our results provide evidence that using unequal tail probabilities can result in shorter 95 % confidence intervals for the between-study variance. We also show some further results for a real example that illustrates how shorter confidence intervals for the between-study variance can be useful when performing sensitivity analyses for the average effect, which is usually the parameter of primary interest. We conclude that using unequal tail probabilities when computing 95 % confidence intervals for the between-study variance, when using methods based on generalised heterogeneity statistics, can result in shorter confidence intervals. We suggest that those who find the case for using unequal tail probabilities convincing should use the '1-4 % split', where greater tail probability is allocated to the upper confidence bound. The 'width-optimal' interval that we present deserves further investigation.

On the appropriateness of applying chi-square distribution based confidence intervals to spectral estimates of helicopter flyover data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rutledge, Charles K.

1988-01-01

The validity of applying chi-square based confidence intervals to far-field acoustic flyover spectral estimates was investigated. Simulated data, using a Kendall series and experimental acoustic data from the NASA/McDonnell Douglas 500E acoustics test, were analyzed. Statistical significance tests to determine the equality of distributions of the simulated and experimental data relative to theoretical chi-square distributions were performed. Bias and uncertainty errors associated with the spectral estimates were easily identified from the data sets. A model relating the uncertainty and bias errors to the estimates resulted, which aided in determining the appropriateness of the chi-square distribution based confidence intervals. Such confidence intervals were appropriate for nontonally associated frequencies of the experimental data but were inappropriate for tonally associated estimate distributions. The appropriateness at the tonally associated frequencies was indicated by the presence of bias error and noncomformity of the distributions to the theoretical chi-square distribution. A technique for determining appropriate confidence intervals at the tonally associated frequencies was suggested.

Procedures for estimating confidence intervals for selected method performance parameters.

PubMed

McClure, F D; Lee, J K

2001-01-01

Procedures for estimating confidence intervals (CIs) for the repeatability variance (sigmar2), reproducibility variance (sigmaR2 = sigmaL2 + sigmar2), laboratory component (sigmaL2), and their corresponding standard deviations sigmar, sigmaR, and sigmaL, respectively, are presented. In addition, CIs for the ratio of the repeatability component to the reproducibility variance (sigmar2/sigmaR2) and the ratio of the laboratory component to the reproducibility variance (sigmaL2/sigmaR2) are also presented.

Confidence intervals and sample size calculations for the standardized mean difference effect size between two normal populations under heteroscedasticity.

PubMed

Shieh, G

2013-12-01

The use of effect sizes and associated confidence intervals in all empirical research has been strongly emphasized by journal publication guidelines. To help advance theory and practice in the social sciences, this article describes an improved procedure for constructing confidence intervals of the standardized mean difference effect size between two independent normal populations with unknown and possibly unequal variances. The presented approach has advantages over the existing formula in both theoretical justification and computational simplicity. In addition, simulation results show that the suggested one- and two-sided confidence intervals are more accurate in achieving the nominal coverage probability. The proposed estimation method provides a feasible alternative to the most commonly used measure of Cohen's d and the corresponding interval procedure when the assumption of homogeneous variances is not tenable. To further improve the potential applicability of the suggested methodology, the sample size procedures for precise interval estimation of the standardized mean difference are also delineated. The desired precision of a confidence interval is assessed with respect to the control of expected width and to the assurance probability of interval width within a designated value. Supplementary computer programs are developed to aid in the usefulness and implementation of the introduced techniques.

Using Confidence Intervals and Recurrence Intervals to Determine Precipitation Delivery Mechanisms Responsible for Mass Wasting Events.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ulizio, T. P.; Bilbrey, C.; Stoyanoff, N.; Dixon, J. L.

2015-12-01

Mass wasting events are geologic hazards that impact human life and property across a variety of landscapes. These movements can be triggered by tectonic activity, anomalous precipitation events, or both; acting to decrease the factor of safety ratio on a hillslope to the point of failure. There exists an active hazard landscape in the West Boulder River drainage of Park Co., MT in which the mechanisms of slope failure are unknown. It is known that region has not seen significant tectonic activity within the last decade, leaving anomalous precipitation events as the likely trigger for slope failures in the landscape. Precipitation can be delivered to a landscape via rainfall or snow; it was the aim of this study to determine the precipitation delivery mechanism most likely responsible for movements in the West Boulder drainage following the Jungle Wildfire of 2006. Data was compiled from four SNOTEL sites in the surrounding area, spanning 33 years, focusing on, but not limited to; maximum snow water equivalent (SWE) values in a water year, median SWE values on the date which maximum SWE was recorded in a water year, the total precipitation accumulated in a water year, etc. Means were computed and 99% confidence intervals were constructed around these means. Recurrence intervals and exceedance probabilities were computed for maximum SWE values and total precipitation accumulated in a water year to determine water years with anomalous precipitation. It was determined that the water year 2010-2011 received an anomalously high amount of SWE, and snow melt in the spring of this water year likely triggered recent mass waste movements. This data is further supported by Google Earth imagery, showing movements between 2009 and 2011. Return intervals for the maximum SWE value in 2010-11 for the Placer Basin SNOTEL site was 34 years, while return intervals for the Box Canyon and Monument Peak SNOTEL sites were 17.5 and 17 years respectively. Max SWE values lie outside the

WASP (Write a Scientific Paper) using Excel - 6: Standard error and confidence interval.

PubMed

Grech, Victor

2018-03-01

The calculation of descriptive statistics includes the calculation of standard error and confidence interval, an inevitable component of data analysis in inferential statistics. This paper provides pointers as to how to do this in Microsoft Excel™. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Another look at confidence intervals: Proposal for a more relevant and transparent approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biller, Steven D.; Oser, Scott M.

2015-02-01

The behaviors of various confidence/credible interval constructions are explored, particularly in the region of low event numbers where methods diverge most. We highlight a number of challenges, such as the treatment of nuisance parameters, and common misconceptions associated with such constructions. An informal survey of the literature suggests that confidence intervals are not always defined in relevant ways and are too often misinterpreted and/or misapplied. This can lead to seemingly paradoxical behaviors and flawed comparisons regarding the relevance of experimental results. We therefore conclude that there is a need for a more pragmatic strategy which recognizes that, while it is critical to objectively convey the information content of the data, there is also a strong desire to derive bounds on model parameter values and a natural instinct to interpret things this way. Accordingly, we attempt to put aside philosophical biases in favor of a practical view to propose a more transparent and self-consistent approach that better addresses these issues.

Spacecraft utility and the development of confidence intervals for criticality of anomalies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, R. E.

1980-01-01

The concept of spacecraft utility, a measure of its performance in orbit, is discussed and its formulation is described. Performance is defined in terms of the malfunctions that occur and the criticality to the mission of these malfunctions. Different approaches to establishing average or expected values of criticality are discussed and confidence intervals are developed for parameters used in the computation of utility.

Characterizing the Mathematics Anxiety Literature Using Confidence Intervals as a Literature Review Mechanism

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zientek, Linda Reichwein; Yetkiner, Z. Ebrar; Thompson, Bruce

2010-01-01

The authors report the contextualization of effect sizes within mathematics anxiety research, and more specifically within research using the Mathematics Anxiety Rating Scale (MARS) and the MARS for Adolescents (MARS-A). The effect sizes from 45 studies were characterized by graphing confidence intervals (CIs) across studies involving (a) adults…

Performing Contrast Analysis in Factorial Designs: From NHST to Confidence Intervals and Beyond

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wiens, Stefan; Nilsson, Mats E.

2017-01-01

Because of the continuing debates about statistics, many researchers may feel confused about how to analyze and interpret data. Current guidelines in psychology advocate the use of effect sizes and confidence intervals (CIs). However, researchers may be unsure about how to extract effect sizes from factorial designs. Contrast analysis is helpful…

SIMREL: Software for Coefficient Alpha and Its Confidence Intervals with Monte Carlo Studies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yurdugul, Halil

2009-01-01

This article describes SIMREL, a software program designed for the simulation of alpha coefficients and the estimation of its confidence intervals. SIMREL runs on two alternatives. In the first one, if SIMREL is run for a single data file, it performs descriptive statistics, principal components analysis, and variance analysis of the item scores…

A comparison of confidence interval methods for the intraclass correlation coefficient in community-based cluster randomization trials with a binary outcome.

PubMed

Braschel, Melissa C; Svec, Ivana; Darlington, Gerarda A; Donner, Allan

2016-04-01

Many investigators rely on previously published point estimates of the intraclass correlation coefficient rather than on their associated confidence intervals to determine the required size of a newly planned cluster randomized trial. Although confidence interval methods for the intraclass correlation coefficient that can be applied to community-based trials have been developed for a continuous outcome variable, fewer methods exist for a binary outcome variable. The aim of this study is to evaluate confidence interval methods for the intraclass correlation coefficient applied to binary outcomes in community intervention trials enrolling a small number of large clusters. Existing methods for confidence interval construction are examined and compared to a new ad hoc approach based on dividing clusters into a large number of smaller sub-clusters and subsequently applying existing methods to the resulting data. Monte Carlo simulation is used to assess the width and coverage of confidence intervals for the intraclass correlation coefficient based on Smith's large sample approximation of the standard error of the one-way analysis of variance estimator, an inverted modified Wald test for the Fleiss-Cuzick estimator, and intervals constructed using a bootstrap-t applied to a variance-stabilizing transformation of the intraclass correlation coefficient estimate. In addition, a new approach is applied in which clusters are randomly divided into a large number of smaller sub-clusters with the same methods applied to these data (with the exception of the bootstrap-t interval, which assumes large cluster sizes). These methods are also applied to a cluster randomized trial on adolescent tobacco use for illustration. When applied to a binary outcome variable in a small number of large clusters, existing confidence interval methods for the intraclass correlation coefficient provide poor coverage. However, confidence intervals constructed using the new approach combined with Smith

Confidence intervals for the first crossing point of two hazard functions.

PubMed

Cheng, Ming-Yen; Qiu, Peihua; Tan, Xianming; Tu, Dongsheng

2009-12-01

The phenomenon of crossing hazard rates is common in clinical trials with time to event endpoints. Many methods have been proposed for testing equality of hazard functions against a crossing hazards alternative. However, there has been relatively few approaches available in the literature for point or interval estimation of the crossing time point. The problem of constructing confidence intervals for the first crossing time point of two hazard functions is considered in this paper. After reviewing a recent procedure based on Cox proportional hazard modeling with Box-Cox transformation of the time to event, a nonparametric procedure using the kernel smoothing estimate of the hazard ratio is proposed. The proposed procedure and the one based on Cox proportional hazard modeling with Box-Cox transformation of the time to event are both evaluated by Monte-Carlo simulations and applied to two clinical trial datasets.

How to Avoid Errors in Error Propagation: Prediction Intervals and Confidence Intervals in Forest Biomass

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lilly, P.; Yanai, R. D.; Buckley, H. L.; Case, B. S.; Woollons, R. C.; Holdaway, R. J.; Johnson, J.

2016-12-01

Calculations of forest biomass and elemental content require many measurements and models, each contributing uncertainty to the final estimates. While sampling error is commonly reported, based on replicate plots, error due to uncertainty in the regression used to estimate biomass from tree diameter is usually not quantified. Some published estimates of uncertainty due to the regression models have used the uncertainty in the prediction of individuals, ignoring uncertainty in the mean, while others have propagated uncertainty in the mean while ignoring individual variation. Using the simple case of the calcium concentration of sugar maple leaves, we compare the variation among individuals (the standard deviation) to the uncertainty in the mean (the standard error) and illustrate the declining importance in the prediction of individual concentrations as the number of individuals increases. For allometric models, the analogous statistics are the prediction interval (or the residual variation in the model fit) and the confidence interval (describing the uncertainty in the best fit model). The effect of propagating these two sources of error is illustrated using the mass of sugar maple foliage. The uncertainty in individual tree predictions was large for plots with few trees; for plots with 30 trees or more, the uncertainty in individuals was less important than the uncertainty in the mean. Authors of previously published analyses have reanalyzed their data to show the magnitude of these two sources of uncertainty in scales ranging from experimental plots to entire countries. The most correct analysis will take both sources of uncertainty into account, but for practical purposes, country-level reports of uncertainty in carbon stocks, as required by the IPCC, can ignore the uncertainty in individuals. Ignoring the uncertainty in the mean will lead to exaggerated estimates of confidence in estimates of forest biomass and carbon and nutrient contents.

Association of knee confidence with pain, knee instability, muscle strength, and dynamic varus-valgus joint motion in knee osteoarthritis.

PubMed

Skou, Søren T; Wrigley, Tim V; Metcalf, Ben R; Hinman, Rana S; Bennell, Kim L

2014-05-01

To investigate associations between self-reported knee confidence and pain, self-reported knee instability, muscle strength, and dynamic varus-valgus joint motion during walking. We performed a cross-sectional analysis of baseline data from 100 participants with symptomatic and radiographic medial tibiofemoral compartment osteoarthritis (OA) and varus malalignment recruited for a randomized controlled trial. The extent of knee confidence, assessed using a 5-point Likert scale item from the Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score, was set as the dependent variable in univariable and multivariable ordinal regression, with pain during walking, self-reported knee instability, quadriceps strength, and dynamic varus-valgus joint motion during walking as independent variables. One percent of the participants were not troubled with lack of knee confidence, 17% were mildly troubled, 50% were moderately troubled, 26% were severely troubled, and 6% were extremely troubled. Significant associations were found between worse knee confidence and higher pain intensity, worse self-reported knee instability, lower quadriceps strength, and greater dynamic varus-valgus joint motion. The multivariable model consisting of the same variables significantly accounted for 24% of the variance in knee confidence (P < 0.001). Worse knee confidence is associated with higher pain, worse self-reported knee instability, lower quadriceps muscle strength, and greater dynamic varus-valgus joint motion during walking. Since previous research has shown that worse knee confidence is predictive of functional decline in knee OA, addressing lack of knee confidence by treating these modifiable impairments could represent a new therapeutic target. Copyright © 2014 by the American College of Rheumatology.

Using Stochastic Approximation Techniques to Efficiently Construct Confidence Intervals for Heritability.

PubMed

Schweiger, Regev; Fisher, Eyal; Rahmani, Elior; Shenhav, Liat; Rosset, Saharon; Halperin, Eran

2018-06-22

Estimation of heritability is an important task in genetics. The use of linear mixed models (LMMs) to determine narrow-sense single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)-heritability and related quantities has received much recent attention, due of its ability to account for variants with small effect sizes. Typically, heritability estimation under LMMs uses the restricted maximum likelihood (REML) approach. The common way to report the uncertainty in REML estimation uses standard errors (SEs), which rely on asymptotic properties. However, these assumptions are often violated because of the bounded parameter space, statistical dependencies, and limited sample size, leading to biased estimates and inflated or deflated confidence intervals (CIs). In addition, for larger data sets (e.g., tens of thousands of individuals), the construction of SEs itself may require considerable time, as it requires expensive matrix inversions and multiplications. Here, we present FIESTA (Fast confidence IntErvals using STochastic Approximation), a method for constructing accurate CIs. FIESTA is based on parametric bootstrap sampling, and, therefore, avoids unjustified assumptions on the distribution of the heritability estimator. FIESTA uses stochastic approximation techniques, which accelerate the construction of CIs by several orders of magnitude, compared with previous approaches as well as to the analytical approximation used by SEs. FIESTA builds accurate CIs rapidly, for example, requiring only several seconds for data sets of tens of thousands of individuals, making FIESTA a very fast solution to the problem of building accurate CIs for heritability for all data set sizes.

Statistical variability and confidence intervals for planar dose QA pass rates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bailey, Daniel W.; Nelms, Benjamin E.; Attwood, Kristopher

Purpose: The most common metric for comparing measured to calculated dose, such as for pretreatment quality assurance of intensity-modulated photon fields, is a pass rate (%) generated using percent difference (%Diff), distance-to-agreement (DTA), or some combination of the two (e.g., gamma evaluation). For many dosimeters, the grid of analyzed points corresponds to an array with a low areal density of point detectors. In these cases, the pass rates for any given comparison criteria are not absolute but exhibit statistical variability that is a function, in part, on the detector sampling geometry. In this work, the authors analyze the statistics ofmore » various methods commonly used to calculate pass rates and propose methods for establishing confidence intervals for pass rates obtained with low-density arrays. Methods: Dose planes were acquired for 25 prostate and 79 head and neck intensity-modulated fields via diode array and electronic portal imaging device (EPID), and matching calculated dose planes were created via a commercial treatment planning system. Pass rates for each dose plane pair (both centered to the beam central axis) were calculated with several common comparison methods: %Diff/DTA composite analysis and gamma evaluation, using absolute dose comparison with both local and global normalization. Specialized software was designed to selectively sample the measured EPID response (very high data density) down to discrete points to simulate low-density measurements. The software was used to realign the simulated detector grid at many simulated positions with respect to the beam central axis, thereby altering the low-density sampled grid. Simulations were repeated with 100 positional iterations using a 1 detector/cm{sup 2} uniform grid, a 2 detector/cm{sup 2} uniform grid, and similar random detector grids. For each simulation, %/DTA composite pass rates were calculated with various %Diff/DTA criteria and for both local and global %Diff normalization

Optimal and Most Exact Confidence Intervals for Person Parameters in Item Response Theory Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Doebler, Anna; Doebler, Philipp; Holling, Heinz

2013-01-01

The common way to calculate confidence intervals for item response theory models is to assume that the standardized maximum likelihood estimator for the person parameter [theta] is normally distributed. However, this approximation is often inadequate for short and medium test lengths. As a result, the coverage probabilities fall below the given…

Simulation data for an estimation of the maximum theoretical value and confidence interval for the correlation coefficient.

PubMed

Rocco, Paolo; Cilurzo, Francesco; Minghetti, Paola; Vistoli, Giulio; Pedretti, Alessandro

2017-10-01

The data presented in this article are related to the article titled "Molecular Dynamics as a tool for in silico screening of skin permeability" (Rocco et al., 2017) [1]. Knowledge of the confidence interval and maximum theoretical value of the correlation coefficient r can prove useful to estimate the reliability of developed predictive models, in particular when there is great variability in compiled experimental datasets. In this Data in Brief article, data from purposely designed numerical simulations are presented to show how much the maximum r value is worsened by increasing the data uncertainty. The corresponding confidence interval of r is determined by using the Fisher r → Z transform.

Neural network based load and price forecasting and confidence interval estimation in deregulated power markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Li

With the deregulation of the electric power market in New England, an independent system operator (ISO) has been separated from the New England Power Pool (NEPOOL). The ISO provides a regional spot market, with bids on various electricity-related products and services submitted by utilities and independent power producers. A utility can bid on the spot market and buy or sell electricity via bilateral transactions. Good estimation of market clearing prices (MCP) will help utilities and independent power producers determine bidding and transaction strategies with low risks, and this is crucial for utilities to compete in the deregulated environment. MCP prediction, however, is difficult since bidding strategies used by participants are complicated and MCP is a non-stationary process. The main objective of this research is to provide efficient short-term load and MCP forecasting and corresponding confidence interval estimation methodologies. In this research, the complexity of load and MCP with other factors is investigated, and neural networks are used to model the complex relationship between input and output. With improved learning algorithm and on-line update features for load forecasting, a neural network based load forecaster was developed, and has been in daily industry use since summer 1998 with good performance. MCP is volatile because of the complexity of market behaviors. In practice, neural network based MCP predictors usually have a cascaded structure, as several key input factors need to be estimated first. In this research, the uncertainties involved in a cascaded neural network structure for MCP prediction are analyzed, and prediction distribution under the Bayesian framework is developed. A fast algorithm to evaluate the confidence intervals by using the memoryless Quasi-Newton method is also developed. The traditional back-propagation algorithm for neural network learning needs to be improved since MCP is a non-stationary process. The extended Kalman

Relative ratios of collagen composition of periarticular tissue of joints of the upper limb.

PubMed

Cheah, A; Harris, A; Le, W; Huang, Y; Yao, J

2017-07-01

We investigated the relative ratios of collagen composition of periarticular tissue of the elbow, wrist, metacarpophalangeal, proximal and distal interphalangeal joints. Periarticulat tissue, which we defined as the ligaments, palmar plate and capsule, was harvested from ten fresh-frozen cadaveric upper limbs, yielding 50 samples. The mean paired differences (95% confidence interval) of the relative ratios of collagen between the five different joints were estimated using mRNA expression of collagen in the periarticular tissue. We found that the relative collagen composition of the elbow was not significantly different to that of the proximal interphalangeal joint, nor between the proximal interphalangeal joint and distal interphalangeal joint, whereas the differences in collagen composition between all the other paired comparisons of the joints had confidence intervals that did not include zero.

Comprehension of confidence intervals - development and piloting of patient information materials for people with multiple sclerosis: qualitative study and pilot randomised controlled trial.

PubMed

Rahn, Anne C; Backhus, Imke; Fuest, Franz; Riemann-Lorenz, Karin; Köpke, Sascha; van de Roemer, Adrianus; Mühlhauser, Ingrid; Heesen, Christoph

2016-09-20

Presentation of confidence intervals alongside information about treatment effects can support informed treatment choices in people with multiple sclerosis. We aimed to develop and pilot-test different written patient information materials explaining confidence intervals in people with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. Further, a questionnaire on comprehension of confidence intervals was developed and piloted. We developed different patient information versions aiming to explain confidence intervals. We used an illustrative example to test three different approaches: (1) short version, (2) "average weight" version and (3) "worm prophylaxis" version. Interviews were conducted using think-aloud and teach-back approaches to test feasibility and analysed using qualitative content analysis. To assess comprehension of confidence intervals, a six-item multiple choice questionnaire was developed and tested in a pilot randomised controlled trial using the online survey software UNIPARK. Here, the average weight version (intervention group) was tested against a standard patient information version on confidence intervals (control group). People with multiple sclerosis were invited to take part using existing mailing-lists of people with multiple sclerosis in Germany and were randomised using the UNIPARK algorithm. Participants were blinded towards group allocation. Primary endpoint was comprehension of confidence intervals, assessed with the six-item multiple choice questionnaire with six points representing perfect knowledge. Feasibility of the patient information versions was tested with 16 people with multiple sclerosis. For the pilot randomised controlled trial, 64 people with multiple sclerosis were randomised (intervention group: n = 36; control group: n = 28). More questions were answered correctly in the intervention group compared to the control group (mean 4.8 vs 3.8, mean difference 1.1 (95 % CI 0.42-1.69), p = 0.002). The questionnaire

Monte Carlo simulation of parameter confidence intervals for non-linear regression analysis of biological data using Microsoft Excel.

PubMed

Lambert, Ronald J W; Mytilinaios, Ioannis; Maitland, Luke; Brown, Angus M

2012-08-01

This study describes a method to obtain parameter confidence intervals from the fitting of non-linear functions to experimental data, using the SOLVER and Analysis ToolPaK Add-In of the Microsoft Excel spreadsheet. Previously we have shown that Excel can fit complex multiple functions to biological data, obtaining values equivalent to those returned by more specialized statistical or mathematical software. However, a disadvantage of using the Excel method was the inability to return confidence intervals for the computed parameters or the correlations between them. Using a simple Monte-Carlo procedure within the Excel spreadsheet (without recourse to programming), SOLVER can provide parameter estimates (up to 200 at a time) for multiple 'virtual' data sets, from which the required confidence intervals and correlation coefficients can be obtained. The general utility of the method is exemplified by applying it to the analysis of the growth of Listeria monocytogenes, the growth inhibition of Pseudomonas aeruginosa by chlorhexidine and the further analysis of the electrophysiological data from the compound action potential of the rodent optic nerve. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Robust Coefficients Alpha and Omega and Confidence Intervals With Outlying Observations and Missing Data

PubMed Central

Zhang, Zhiyong; Yuan, Ke-Hai

2015-01-01

Cronbach’s coefficient alpha is a widely used reliability measure in social, behavioral, and education sciences. It is reported in nearly every study that involves measuring a construct through multiple items. With non-tau-equivalent items, McDonald’s omega has been used as a popular alternative to alpha in the literature. Traditional estimation methods for alpha and omega often implicitly assume that data are complete and normally distributed. This study proposes robust procedures to estimate both alpha and omega as well as corresponding standard errors and confidence intervals from samples that may contain potential outlying observations and missing values. The influence of outlying observations and missing data on the estimates of alpha and omega is investigated through two simulation studies. Results show that the newly developed robust method yields substantially improved alpha and omega estimates as well as better coverage rates of confidence intervals than the conventional nonrobust method. An R package coefficientalpha is developed and demonstrated to obtain robust estimates of alpha and omega. PMID:29795870

A Comparison of Various Stress Rupture Life Models for Orbiter Composite Pressure Vessels and Confidence Intervals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grimes-Ledesma, Lorie; Murthy, Pappu L. N.; Phoenix, S. Leigh; Glaser, Ronald

2007-01-01

In conjunction with a recent NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) investigation of flight worthiness of Kevlar Overwrapped Composite Pressure Vessels (COPVs) on board the Orbiter, two stress rupture life prediction models were proposed independently by Phoenix and by Glaser. In this paper, the use of these models to determine the system reliability of 24 COPVs currently in service on board the Orbiter is discussed. The models are briefly described, compared to each other, and model parameters and parameter uncertainties are also reviewed to understand confidence in reliability estimation as well as the sensitivities of these parameters in influencing overall predicted reliability levels. Differences and similarities in the various models will be compared via stress rupture reliability curves (stress ratio vs. lifetime plots). Also outlined will be the differences in the underlying model premises, and predictive outcomes. Sources of error and sensitivities in the models will be examined and discussed based on sensitivity analysis and confidence interval determination. Confidence interval results and their implications will be discussed for the models by Phoenix and Glaser.

Methods for calculating confidence and credible intervals for the residual between-study variance in random effects meta-regression models

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Meta-regression is becoming increasingly used to model study level covariate effects. However this type of statistical analysis presents many difficulties and challenges. Here two methods for calculating confidence intervals for the magnitude of the residual between-study variance in random effects meta-regression models are developed. A further suggestion for calculating credible intervals using informative prior distributions for the residual between-study variance is presented. Methods Two recently proposed and, under the assumptions of the random effects model, exact methods for constructing confidence intervals for the between-study variance in random effects meta-analyses are extended to the meta-regression setting. The use of Generalised Cochran heterogeneity statistics is extended to the meta-regression setting and a Newton-Raphson procedure is developed to implement the Q profile method for meta-analysis and meta-regression. WinBUGS is used to implement informative priors for the residual between-study variance in the context of Bayesian meta-regressions. Results Results are obtained for two contrasting examples, where the first example involves a binary covariate and the second involves a continuous covariate. Intervals for the residual between-study variance are wide for both examples. Conclusions Statistical methods, and R computer software, are available to compute exact confidence intervals for the residual between-study variance under the random effects model for meta-regression. These frequentist methods are almost as easily implemented as their established counterparts for meta-analysis. Bayesian meta-regressions are also easily performed by analysts who are comfortable using WinBUGS. Estimates of the residual between-study variance in random effects meta-regressions should be routinely reported and accompanied by some measure of their uncertainty. Confidence and/or credible intervals are well-suited to this purpose. PMID:25196829

A confidence interval analysis of sampling effort, sequencing depth, and taxonomic resolution of fungal community ecology in the era of high-throughput sequencing.

PubMed

Oono, Ryoko

2017-01-01

High-throughput sequencing technology has helped microbial community ecologists explore ecological and evolutionary patterns at unprecedented scales. The benefits of a large sample size still typically outweigh that of greater sequencing depths per sample for accurate estimations of ecological inferences. However, excluding or not sequencing rare taxa may mislead the answers to the questions 'how and why are communities different?' This study evaluates the confidence intervals of ecological inferences from high-throughput sequencing data of foliar fungal endophytes as case studies through a range of sampling efforts, sequencing depths, and taxonomic resolutions to understand how technical and analytical practices may affect our interpretations. Increasing sampling size reliably decreased confidence intervals across multiple community comparisons. However, the effects of sequencing depths on confidence intervals depended on how rare taxa influenced the dissimilarity estimates among communities and did not significantly decrease confidence intervals for all community comparisons. A comparison of simulated communities under random drift suggests that sequencing depths are important in estimating dissimilarities between microbial communities under neutral selective processes. Confidence interval analyses reveal important biases as well as biological trends in microbial community studies that otherwise may be ignored when communities are only compared for statistically significant differences.

Performing Contrast Analysis in Factorial Designs: From NHST to Confidence Intervals and Beyond

PubMed Central

Wiens, Stefan; Nilsson, Mats E.

2016-01-01

Because of the continuing debates about statistics, many researchers may feel confused about how to analyze and interpret data. Current guidelines in psychology advocate the use of effect sizes and confidence intervals (CIs). However, researchers may be unsure about how to extract effect sizes from factorial designs. Contrast analysis is helpful because it can be used to test specific questions of central interest in studies with factorial designs. It weighs several means and combines them into one or two sets that can be tested with t tests. The effect size produced by a contrast analysis is simply the difference between means. The CI of the effect size informs directly about direction, hypothesis exclusion, and the relevance of the effects of interest. However, any interpretation in terms of precision or likelihood requires the use of likelihood intervals or credible intervals (Bayesian). These various intervals and even a Bayesian t test can be obtained easily with free software. This tutorial reviews these methods to guide researchers in answering the following questions: When I analyze mean differences in factorial designs, where can I find the effects of central interest, and what can I learn about their effect sizes? PMID:29805179

Evaluating the utility of hexapod species for calculating a confidence interval about a succession based postmortem interval estimate.

PubMed

Perez, Anne E; Haskell, Neal H; Wells, Jeffrey D

2014-08-01

Carrion insect succession patterns have long been used to estimate the postmortem interval (PMI) during a death investigation. However, no published carrion succession study included sufficient replication to calculate a confidence interval about a PMI estimate based on occurrence data. We exposed 53 pig carcasses (16±2.5 kg), near the likely minimum needed for such statistical analysis, at a site in north-central Indiana, USA, over three consecutive summer seasons. Insects and Collembola were sampled daily from each carcass for a total of 14 days, by this time each was skeletonized. The criteria for judging a life stage of a given species to be potentially useful for succession-based PMI estimation were (1) nonreoccurrence (observed during a single period of presence on a corpse), and (2) found in a sufficiently large proportion of carcasses to support a PMI confidence interval. For this data set that proportion threshold is 45/53. Of the 266 species collected and identified, none was nonreoccuring in that each showed at least a gap of one day on a single carcass. If the definition of nonreoccurrence is relaxed to include such a single one-day gap the larval forms of Necrophilaamericana, Fanniascalaris, Cochliomyia macellaria, Phormiaregina, and Luciliaillustris satisfied these two criteria. Adults of Creophilus maxillosus, Necrobiaruficollis, and Necrodessurinamensis were common and showed only a few, single-day gaps in occurrence. C.maxillosus, P.regina, and L.illustris displayed exceptional forensic utility in that they were observed on every carcass. Although these observations were made at a single site during one season of the year, the species we found to be useful have large geographic ranges. We suggest that future carrion insect succession research focus only on a limited set of species with high potential forensic utility so as to reduce sample effort per carcass and thereby enable increased experimental replication. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland

Statistical inferences with jointly type-II censored samples from two Pareto distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abu-Zinadah, Hanaa H.

2017-08-01

In the several fields of industries the product comes from more than one production line, which is required to work the comparative life tests. This problem requires sampling of the different production lines, then the joint censoring scheme is appeared. In this article we consider the life time Pareto distribution with jointly type-II censoring scheme. The maximum likelihood estimators (MLE) and the corresponding approximate confidence intervals as well as the bootstrap confidence intervals of the model parameters are obtained. Also Bayesian point and credible intervals of the model parameters are presented. The life time data set is analyzed for illustrative purposes. Monte Carlo results from simulation studies are presented to assess the performance of our proposed method.

The confidence-accuracy relationship for eyewitness identification decisions: Effects of exposure duration, retention interval, and divided attention.

PubMed

Palmer, Matthew A; Brewer, Neil; Weber, Nathan; Nagesh, Ambika

2013-03-01

Prior research points to a meaningful confidence-accuracy (CA) relationship for positive identification decisions. However, there are theoretical grounds for expecting that different aspects of the CA relationship (calibration, resolution, and over/underconfidence) might be undermined in some circumstances. This research investigated whether the CA relationship for eyewitness identification decisions is affected by three, forensically relevant variables: exposure duration, retention interval, and divided attention at encoding. In Study 1 (N = 986), a field experiment, we examined the effects of exposure duration (5 s vs. 90 s) and retention interval (immediate testing vs. a 1-week delay) on the CA relationship. In Study 2 (N = 502), we examined the effects of attention during encoding on the CA relationship by reanalyzing data from a laboratory experiment in which participants viewed a stimulus video under full or divided attention conditions and then attempted to identify two targets from separate lineups. Across both studies, all three manipulations affected identification accuracy. The central analyses concerned the CA relation for positive identification decisions. For the manipulations of exposure duration and retention interval, overconfidence was greater in the more difficult conditions (shorter exposure; delayed testing) than the easier conditions. Only the exposure duration manipulation influenced resolution (which was better for 5 s than 90 s), and only the retention interval manipulation affected calibration (which was better for immediate testing than delayed testing). In all experimental conditions, accuracy and diagnosticity increased with confidence, particularly at the upper end of the confidence scale. Implications for theory and forensic settings are discussed.

A confidence interval analysis of sampling effort, sequencing depth, and taxonomic resolution of fungal community ecology in the era of high-throughput sequencing

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

High-throughput sequencing technology has helped microbial community ecologists explore ecological and evolutionary patterns at unprecedented scales. The benefits of a large sample size still typically outweigh that of greater sequencing depths per sample for accurate estimations of ecological inferences. However, excluding or not sequencing rare taxa may mislead the answers to the questions ‘how and why are communities different?’ This study evaluates the confidence intervals of ecological inferences from high-throughput sequencing data of foliar fungal endophytes as case studies through a range of sampling efforts, sequencing depths, and taxonomic resolutions to understand how technical and analytical practices may affect our interpretations. Increasing sampling size reliably decreased confidence intervals across multiple community comparisons. However, the effects of sequencing depths on confidence intervals depended on how rare taxa influenced the dissimilarity estimates among communities and did not significantly decrease confidence intervals for all community comparisons. A comparison of simulated communities under random drift suggests that sequencing depths are important in estimating dissimilarities between microbial communities under neutral selective processes. Confidence interval analyses reveal important biases as well as biological trends in microbial community studies that otherwise may be ignored when communities are only compared for statistically significant differences. PMID:29253889

Primary care physicians' perceptions about and confidence in deciding which patients to refer for total joint arthroplasty of the hip and knee.

PubMed

Waugh, E J; Badley, E M; Borkhoff, C M; Croxford, R; Davis, A M; Dunn, S; Gignac, M A; Jaglal, S B; Sale, J; Hawker, G A

2016-03-01

The purpose of this study is to examine the perceptions of primary care physicians (PCPs) regarding indications, contraindications, risks and benefits of total joint arthroplasty (TJA) and their confidence in selecting patients for referral for TJA. PCPs recruited from among those providing care to participants in an established community cohort with hip or knee osteoarthritis (OA). Self-completed questionnaires were used to collect demographic and practice characteristics and perceptions about TJA. Confidence in referring appropriate patients for TJA was measured on a scale from 1 to 10; respondents scoring in the lowest tertile were considered to have 'low confidence'. Descriptive analyses were conducted and multiple logistic regression was used to determine key predictors of low confidence. 212 PCPs participated (58% response rate) (65% aged 50+ years, 45% female, 77% >15 years of practice). Perceptions about TJA were highly variable but on average, PCPs perceived that a typical surgical candidate would have moderate pain and disability, identified few absolute contraindications to TJA, and overestimated both the effectiveness and risks of TJA. On average, PCPs indicated moderate confidence in deciding who to refer. Independent predictors of low confidence were female physicians (OR = 2.18, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.06-4.46) and reporting a 'lack of clarity about surgical indications' (OR = 3.54, 95% CI: 1.87-6.66). Variability in perceptions and lack of clarity about surgical indications underscore the need for decision support tools to inform PCP - patient decision making regarding referral for TJA. Copyright © 2015 Osteoarthritis Research Society International. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Knowledge level of effect size statistics, confidence intervals and meta-analysis in Spanish academic psychologists.

PubMed

Badenes-Ribera, Laura; Frias-Navarro, Dolores; Pascual-Soler, Marcos; Monterde-I-Bort, Héctor

2016-11-01

The statistical reform movement and the American Psychological Association (APA) defend the use of estimators of the effect size and its confidence intervals, as well as the interpretation of the clinical significance of the findings. A survey was conducted in which academic psychologists were asked about their behavior in designing and carrying out their studies. The sample was composed of 472 participants (45.8% men). The mean number of years as a university professor was 13.56 years (SD= 9.27). The use of effect-size estimators is becoming generalized, as well as the consideration of meta-analytic studies. However, several inadequate practices still persist. A traditional model of methodological behavior based on statistical significance tests is maintained, based on the predominance of Cohen’s d and the unadjusted R2/η2, which are not immune to outliers or departure from normality and the violations of statistical assumptions, and the under-reporting of confidence intervals of effect-size statistics. The paper concludes with recommendations for improving statistical practice.

Confidence interval or p-value?: part 4 of a series on evaluation of scientific publications.

PubMed

du Prel, Jean-Baptist; Hommel, Gerhard; Röhrig, Bernd; Blettner, Maria

2009-05-01

An understanding of p-values and confidence intervals is necessary for the evaluation of scientific articles. This article will inform the reader of the meaning and interpretation of these two statistical concepts. The uses of these two statistical concepts and the differences between them are discussed on the basis of a selective literature search concerning the methods employed in scientific articles. P-values in scientific studies are used to determine whether a null hypothesis formulated before the performance of the study is to be accepted or rejected. In exploratory studies, p-values enable the recognition of any statistically noteworthy findings. Confidence intervals provide information about a range in which the true value lies with a certain degree of probability, as well as about the direction and strength of the demonstrated effect. This enables conclusions to be drawn about the statistical plausibility and clinical relevance of the study findings. It is often useful for both statistical measures to be reported in scientific articles, because they provide complementary types of information.

A numerical approach to 14C wiggle-match dating of organic deposits: best fits and confidence intervals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blaauw, Maarten; Heuvelink, Gerard B. M.; Mauquoy, Dmitri; van der Plicht, Johannes; van Geel, Bas

2003-06-01

14C wiggle-match dating (WMD) of peat deposits uses the non-linear relationship between 14C age and calendar age to match the shape of a sequence of closely spaced peat 14C dates with the 14C calibration curve. A numerical approach to WMD enables the quantitative assessment of various possible wiggle-match solutions and of calendar year confidence intervals for sequences of 14C dates. We assess the assumptions, advantages, and limitations of the method. Several case-studies show that WMD results in more precise chronologies than when individual 14C dates are calibrated. WMD is most successful during periods with major excursions in the 14C calibration curve (e.g., in one case WMD could narrow down confidence intervals from 230 to 36 yr).

Joint distribution approaches to simultaneously quantifying benefit and risk.

PubMed

Shaffer, Michele L; Watterberg, Kristi L

2006-10-12

The benefit-risk ratio has been proposed to measure the tradeoff between benefits and risks of two therapies for a single binary measure of efficacy and a single adverse event. The ratio is calculated from the difference in risk and difference in benefit between therapies. Small sample sizes or expected differences in benefit or risk can lead to no solution or problematic solutions for confidence intervals. Alternatively, using the joint distribution of benefit and risk, confidence regions for the differences in risk and benefit can be constructed in the benefit-risk plane. The information in the joint distribution can be summarized by choosing regions of interest in this plane. Using Bayesian methodology provides a very flexible framework for summarizing information in the joint distribution. Data from a National Institute of Child Health & Human Development trial of hydrocortisone illustrate the construction of confidence regions and regions of interest in the benefit-risk plane, where benefit is survival without supplemental oxygen at 36 weeks postmenstrual age, and risk is gastrointestinal perforation. For the subgroup of infants exposed to chorioamnionitis the confidence interval based on the benefit-risk ratio is wide (Benefit-risk ratio: 1.52; 90% confidence interval: 0.23 to 5.25). Choosing regions of appreciable risk and acceptable risk in the benefit-risk plane confirms the uncertainty seen in the wide confidence interval for the benefit-risk ratio--there is a greater than 50% chance of falling into the region of acceptable risk--while visually allowing the uncertainty in risk and benefit to be shown separately. Applying Bayesian methodology, an incremental net health benefit analysis shows there is a 72% chance of having a positive incremental net benefit if hydrocortisone is used in place of placebo if one is willing to incur at most one gastrointestinal perforation for each additional infant that survives without supplemental oxygen. If the benefit

’Exact’ Two-Sided Confidence Intervals on Nonnegative Linear Combinations of Variances.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-07-01

Colorado State University ( 042_402) II. CONTrOLLING OFFICE NAME AND ADDRESS It. REPORT OAT Office of Naval Rsearch -// 1 Jul MjW80 Statistics and...MONNEGATIVE LINEAR COMBINATIONS OF VARIANCES by Franklin A. Graybill Colorado State University and Chih-Ming Wang SPSS Inc. 1. Introduction In a paper to soon...1 + a2’ called the Nodf Led Lace Sample (HLS) confidence interval, is in 2. Aoce-3Ion For DDC TAO u*.- *- -. n c edI Ju.-’I if iction_, i !~BV . . I

Confidence Intervals for Effect Sizes: Compliance and Clinical Significance in the "Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Odgaard, Eric C.; Fowler, Robert L.

2010-01-01

Objective: In 2005, the "Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology" ("JCCP") became the first American Psychological Association (APA) journal to require statistical measures of clinical significance, plus effect sizes (ESs) and associated confidence intervals (CIs), for primary outcomes (La Greca, 2005). As this represents the single largest…

Robust Coefficients Alpha and Omega and Confidence Intervals With Outlying Observations and Missing Data: Methods and Software.

PubMed

Zhang, Zhiyong; Yuan, Ke-Hai

2016-06-01

Cronbach's coefficient alpha is a widely used reliability measure in social, behavioral, and education sciences. It is reported in nearly every study that involves measuring a construct through multiple items. With non-tau-equivalent items, McDonald's omega has been used as a popular alternative to alpha in the literature. Traditional estimation methods for alpha and omega often implicitly assume that data are complete and normally distributed. This study proposes robust procedures to estimate both alpha and omega as well as corresponding standard errors and confidence intervals from samples that may contain potential outlying observations and missing values. The influence of outlying observations and missing data on the estimates of alpha and omega is investigated through two simulation studies. Results show that the newly developed robust method yields substantially improved alpha and omega estimates as well as better coverage rates of confidence intervals than the conventional nonrobust method. An R package coefficientalpha is developed and demonstrated to obtain robust estimates of alpha and omega.

Bootstrap confidence intervals and bias correction in the estimation of HIV incidence from surveillance data with testing for recent infection.

PubMed

Carnegie, Nicole Bohme

2011-04-15

The incidence of new infections is a key measure of the status of the HIV epidemic, but accurate measurement of incidence is often constrained by limited data. Karon et al. (Statist. Med. 2008; 27:4617–4633) developed a model to estimate the incidence of HIV infection from surveillance data with biologic testing for recent infection for newly diagnosed cases. This method has been implemented by public health departments across the United States and is behind the new national incidence estimates, which are about 40 per cent higher than previous estimates. We show that the delta method approximation given for the variance of the estimator is incomplete, leading to an inflated variance estimate. This contributes to the generation of overly conservative confidence intervals, potentially obscuring important differences between populations. We demonstrate via simulation that an innovative model-based bootstrap method using the specified model for the infection and surveillance process improves confidence interval coverage and adjusts for the bias in the point estimate. Confidence interval coverage is about 94–97 per cent after correction, compared with 96–99 per cent before. The simulated bias in the estimate of incidence ranges from −6.3 to +14.6 per cent under the original model but is consistently under 1 per cent after correction by the model-based bootstrap. In an application to data from King County, Washington in 2007 we observe correction of 7.2 per cent relative bias in the incidence estimate and a 66 per cent reduction in the width of the 95 per cent confidence interval using this method. We provide open-source software to implement the method that can also be extended for alternate models.

Self-confidence and affect responses to short-term sprint interval training.

PubMed

Selmi, Walid; Rebai, Haithem; Chtara, Mokhtar; Naceur, Abdelmajid; Sahli, Sonia

2018-05-01

The study aimed to investigate the effects of repeated sprint (RS) training on somatic anxiety (SA), cognitive anxiety (CA), self-confidence (SC), rating of perceived exertion (RPE) and repeated sprint ability (RSA) indicators in elite young soccer players. Thirty elite soccer players in the first football league (age: 17.8±0.9years) volunteered to participate in this study. They were randomly assigned to one of two groups: a repeated sprint training group (RST-G; n=15) and a control group (CON-G; n=15). RST-G participated in 6weeks of intensive training based on RS (6×(20+20m) runs, with 20s passive recovery interval between sprints, 3 times/week). Before and after the 6-week intervention, all participants performed a RSA test and completed a Competitive Scale Anxiety Inventory (CSAI-2) and the RPE. After training RST-G showed a very significant (p<0.000) increase in RSA total time performance relative to controls. Despite the faster sprint pace, the RPE also decreased significantly (p<0.005) in RST-G, and their self confidence was significantly greater (p<0.01), while the cognitive (p<0.01) and somatic (p<0.000) components of their anxiety state decreased. When practiced regularly, short bouts of sprint exercises improve anaerobic performance associated with a reduction in anxiety state and an increase in SC which may probably boost competitive performance. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Experimental optimization of the number of blocks by means of algorithms parameterized by confidence interval in popcorn breeding.

PubMed

Paula, T O M; Marinho, C D; Amaral Júnior, A T; Peternelli, L A; Gonçalves, L S A

2013-06-27

The objective of this study was to determine the optimal number of repetitions to be used in competition trials of popcorn traits related to production and quality, including grain yield and expansion capacity. The experiments were conducted in 3 environments representative of the north and northwest regions of the State of Rio de Janeiro with 10 Brazilian genotypes of popcorn, consisting by 4 commercial hybrids (IAC 112, IAC 125, Zélia, and Jade), 4 improved varieties (BRS Ângela, UFVM-2 Barão de Viçosa, Beija-flor, and Viçosa) and 2 experimental populations (UNB2U-C3 and UNB2U-C4). The experimental design utilized was a randomized complete block design with 7 repetitions. The Bootstrap method was employed to obtain samples of all of the possible combinations within the 7 blocks. Subsequently, the confidence intervals of the parameters of interest were calculated for all simulated data sets. The optimal number of repetition for all of the traits was considered when all of the estimates of the parameters in question were encountered within the confidence interval. The estimates of the number of repetitions varied according to the parameter estimated, variable evaluated, and environment cultivated, ranging from 2 to 7. It is believed that only the expansion capacity traits in the Colégio Agrícola environment (for residual variance and coefficient of variation), and number of ears per plot, in the Itaocara environment (for coefficient of variation) needed 7 repetitions to fall within the confidence interval. Thus, for the 3 studies conducted, we can conclude that 6 repetitions are optimal for obtaining high experimental precision.

UNDERSTANDING SYSTEMATIC MEASUREMENT ERROR IN THERMAL-OPTICAL ANALYSIS FOR PM BLACK CARBON USING RESPONSE SURFACES AND SURFACE CONFIDENCE INTERVALS

EPA Science Inventory

Results from a NIST-EPA Interagency Agreement on Understanding Systematic Measurement Error in Thermal-Optical Analysis for PM Black Carbon Using Response Surfaces and Surface Confidence Intervals will be presented at the American Association for Aerosol Research (AAAR) 24th Annu...

Accurate estimation of normal incidence absorption coefficients with confidence intervals using a scanning laser Doppler vibrometer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vuye, Cedric; Vanlanduit, Steve; Guillaume, Patrick

2009-06-01

When using optical measurements of the sound fields inside a glass tube, near the material under test, to estimate the reflection and absorption coefficients, not only these acoustical parameters but also confidence intervals can be determined. The sound fields are visualized using a scanning laser Doppler vibrometer (SLDV). In this paper the influence of different test signals on the quality of the results, obtained with this technique, is examined. The amount of data gathered during one measurement scan makes a thorough statistical analysis possible leading to the knowledge of confidence intervals. The use of a multi-sine, constructed on the resonance frequencies of the test tube, shows to be a very good alternative for the traditional periodic chirp. This signal offers the ability to obtain data for multiple frequencies in one measurement, without the danger of a low signal-to-noise ratio. The variability analysis in this paper clearly shows the advantages of the proposed multi-sine compared to the periodic chirp. The measurement procedure and the statistical analysis are validated by measuring the reflection ratio at a closed end and comparing the results with the theoretical value. Results of the testing of two building materials (an acoustic ceiling tile and linoleum) are presented and compared to supplier data.

Practical Advice on Calculating Confidence Intervals for Radioprotection Effects and Reducing Animal Numbers in Radiation Countermeasure Experiments

PubMed Central

Landes, Reid D.; Lensing, Shelly Y.; Kodell, Ralph L.; Hauer-Jensen, Martin

2014-01-01

The dose of a substance that causes death in P% of a population is called an LDP, where LD stands for lethal dose. In radiation research, a common LDP of interest is the radiation dose that kills 50% of the population by a specified time, i.e., lethal dose 50 or LD50. When comparing LD50 between two populations, relative potency is the parameter of interest. In radiation research, this is commonly known as the dose reduction factor (DRF). Unfortunately, statistical inference on dose reduction factor is seldom reported. We illustrate how to calculate confidence intervals for dose reduction factor, which may then be used for statistical inference. Further, most dose reduction factor experiments use hundreds, rather than tens of animals. Through better dosing strategies and the use of a recently available sample size formula, we also show how animal numbers may be reduced while maintaining high statistical power. The illustrations center on realistic examples comparing LD50 values between a radiation countermeasure group and a radiation-only control. We also provide easy-to-use spreadsheets for sample size calculations and confidence interval calculations, as well as SAS® and R code for the latter. PMID:24164553

Joint confidence region estimation for area under ROC curve and Youden index.

PubMed

Yin, Jingjing; Tian, Lili

2014-03-15

In the field of diagnostic studies, the area under the ROC curve (AUC) serves as an overall measure of a biomarker/diagnostic test's accuracy. Youden index, defined as the overall correct classification rate minus one at the optimal cut-off point, is another popular index. For continuous biomarkers of binary disease status, although researchers mainly evaluate the diagnostic accuracy using AUC, for the purpose of making diagnosis, Youden index provides an important and direct measure of the diagnostic accuracy at the optimal threshold and hence should be taken into consideration in addition to AUC. Furthermore, AUC and Youden index are generally correlated. In this paper, we initiate the idea of evaluating diagnostic accuracy based on AUC and Youden index simultaneously. As the first step toward this direction, this paper only focuses on the confidence region estimation of AUC and Youden index for a single marker. We present both parametric and non-parametric approaches for estimating joint confidence region of AUC and Youden index. We carry out extensive simulation study to evaluate the performance of the proposed methods. In the end, we apply the proposed methods to a real data set. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Using confidence intervals to evaluate the focus alignment of spectrograph detector arrays.

PubMed

Sawyer, Travis W; Hawkins, Kyle S; Damento, Michael

2017-06-20

High-resolution spectrographs extract detailed spectral information of a sample and are frequently used in astronomy, laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy, and Raman spectroscopy. These instruments employ dispersive elements such as prisms and diffraction gratings to spatially separate different wavelengths of light, which are then detected by a charge-coupled device (CCD) or complementary metal-oxide-semiconductor (CMOS) detector array. Precise alignment along the optical axis (focus position) of the detector array is critical to maximize the instrumental resolution; however, traditional approaches of scanning the detector through focus lack a quantitative measure of precision, limiting the repeatability and relying on one's experience. Here we propose a method to evaluate the focus alignment of spectrograph detector arrays by establishing confidence intervals to measure the alignment precision. We show that propagation of uncertainty can be used to estimate the variance in an alignment, thus providing a quantitative and repeatable means to evaluate the precision and confidence of an alignment. We test the approach by aligning the detector array of a prototype miniature echelle spectrograph. The results indicate that the procedure effectively quantifies alignment precision, enabling one to objectively determine when an alignment has reached an acceptable level. This quantitative approach also provides a foundation for further optimization, including automated alignment. Furthermore, the procedure introduced here can be extended to other alignment techniques that rely on numerically fitting data to a model, providing a general framework for evaluating the precision of alignment methods.

An Algorithm for Efficient Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Confidence Interval Determination in Nonlinear Estimation Problems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Murphy, Patrick Charles

1985-01-01

An algorithm for maximum likelihood (ML) estimation is developed with an efficient method for approximating the sensitivities. The algorithm was developed for airplane parameter estimation problems but is well suited for most nonlinear, multivariable, dynamic systems. The ML algorithm relies on a new optimization method referred to as a modified Newton-Raphson with estimated sensitivities (MNRES). MNRES determines sensitivities by using slope information from local surface approximations of each output variable in parameter space. The fitted surface allows sensitivity information to be updated at each iteration with a significant reduction in computational effort. MNRES determines the sensitivities with less computational effort than using either a finite-difference method or integrating the analytically determined sensitivity equations. MNRES eliminates the need to derive sensitivity equations for each new model, thus eliminating algorithm reformulation with each new model and providing flexibility to use model equations in any format that is convenient. A random search technique for determining the confidence limits of ML parameter estimates is applied to nonlinear estimation problems for airplanes. The confidence intervals obtained by the search are compared with Cramer-Rao (CR) bounds at the same confidence level. It is observed that the degree of nonlinearity in the estimation problem is an important factor in the relationship between CR bounds and the error bounds determined by the search technique. The CR bounds were found to be close to the bounds determined by the search when the degree of nonlinearity was small. Beale's measure of nonlinearity is developed in this study for airplane identification problems; it is used to empirically correct confidence levels for the parameter confidence limits. The primary utility of the measure, however, was found to be in predicting the degree of agreement between Cramer-Rao bounds and search estimates.

CI2 for creating and comparing confidence-intervals for time-series bivariate plots.

PubMed

Mullineaux, David R

2017-02-01

Currently no method exists for calculating and comparing the confidence-intervals (CI) for the time-series of a bivariate plot. The study's aim was to develop 'CI2' as a method to calculate the CI on time-series bivariate plots, and to identify if the CI between two bivariate time-series overlap. The test data were the knee and ankle angles from 10 healthy participants running on a motorised standard-treadmill and non-motorised curved-treadmill. For a recommended 10+ trials, CI2 involved calculating 95% confidence-ellipses at each time-point, then taking as the CI the points on the ellipses that were perpendicular to the direction vector between the means of two adjacent time-points. Consecutive pairs of CI created convex quadrilaterals, and any overlap of these quadrilaterals at the same time or ±1 frame as a time-lag calculated using cross-correlations, indicated where the two time-series differed. CI2 showed no group differences between left and right legs on both treadmills, but the same legs between treadmills for all participants showed differences of less knee extension on the curved-treadmill before heel-strike. To improve and standardise the use of CI2 it is recommended to remove outlier time-series, use 95% confidence-ellipses, and scale the ellipse by the fixed Chi-square value as opposed to the sample-size dependent F-value. For practical use, and to aid in standardisation or future development of CI2, Matlab code is provided. CI2 provides an effective method to quantify the CI of bivariate plots, and to explore the differences in CI between two bivariate time-series. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Proportion of general factor variance in a hierarchical multiple-component measuring instrument: a note on a confidence interval estimation procedure.

PubMed

Raykov, Tenko; Zinbarg, Richard E

2011-05-01

A confidence interval construction procedure for the proportion of explained variance by a hierarchical, general factor in a multi-component measuring instrument is outlined. The method provides point and interval estimates for the proportion of total scale score variance that is accounted for by the general factor, which could be viewed as common to all components. The approach may also be used for testing composite (one-tailed) or simple hypotheses about this proportion, and is illustrated with a pair of examples. ©2010 The British Psychological Society.

Confidence Intervals for the Probability of Superiority Effect Size Measure and the Area under a Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ruscio, John; Mullen, Tara

2012-01-01

It is good scientific practice to the report an appropriate estimate of effect size and a confidence interval (CI) to indicate the precision with which a population effect was estimated. For comparisons of 2 independent groups, a probability-based effect size estimator (A) that is equal to the area under a receiver operating characteristic curve…

The Precision of Effect Size Estimation From Published Psychological Research: Surveying Confidence Intervals.

PubMed

Brand, Andrew; Bradley, Michael T

2016-02-01

Confidence interval ( CI) widths were calculated for reported Cohen's d standardized effect sizes and examined in two automated surveys of published psychological literature. The first survey reviewed 1,902 articles from Psychological Science. The second survey reviewed a total of 5,169 articles from across the following four APA journals: Journal of Abnormal Psychology, Journal of Applied Psychology, Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, and Developmental Psychology. The median CI width for d was greater than 1 in both surveys. Hence, CI widths were, as Cohen (1994) speculated, embarrassingly large. Additional exploratory analyses revealed that CI widths varied across psychological research areas and that CI widths were not discernably decreasing over time. The theoretical implications of these findings are discussed along with ways of reducing the CI widths and thus improving precision of effect size estimation.

Generalized additive models and Lucilia sericata growth: assessing confidence intervals and error rates in forensic entomology.

PubMed

Tarone, Aaron M; Foran, David R

2008-07-01

Forensic entomologists use blow fly development to estimate a postmortem interval. Although accurate, fly age estimates can be imprecise for older developmental stages and no standard means of assigning confidence intervals exists. Presented here is a method for modeling growth of the forensically important blow fly Lucilia sericata, using generalized additive models (GAMs). Eighteen GAMs were created to predict the extent of juvenile fly development, encompassing developmental stage, length, weight, strain, and temperature data, collected from 2559 individuals. All measures were informative, explaining up to 92.6% of the deviance in the data, though strain and temperature exerted negligible influences. Predictions made with an independent data set allowed for a subsequent examination of error. Estimates using length and developmental stage were within 5% of true development percent during the feeding portion of the larval life cycle, while predictions for postfeeding third instars were less precise, but within expected error.

Prediction of the distillation temperatures of crude oils using ¹H NMR and support vector regression with estimated confidence intervals.

PubMed

Filgueiras, Paulo R; Terra, Luciana A; Castro, Eustáquio V R; Oliveira, Lize M S L; Dias, Júlio C M; Poppi, Ronei J

2015-09-01

This paper aims to estimate the temperature equivalent to 10% (T10%), 50% (T50%) and 90% (T90%) of distilled volume in crude oils using (1)H NMR and support vector regression (SVR). Confidence intervals for the predicted values were calculated using a boosting-type ensemble method in a procedure called ensemble support vector regression (eSVR). The estimated confidence intervals obtained by eSVR were compared with previously accepted calculations from partial least squares (PLS) models and a boosting-type ensemble applied in the PLS method (ePLS). By using the proposed boosting strategy, it was possible to identify outliers in the T10% property dataset. The eSVR procedure improved the accuracy of the distillation temperature predictions in relation to standard PLS, ePLS and SVR. For T10%, a root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) of 11.6°C was obtained in comparison with 15.6°C for PLS, 15.1°C for ePLS and 28.4°C for SVR. The RMSEPs for T50% were 24.2°C, 23.4°C, 22.8°C and 14.4°C for PLS, ePLS, SVR and eSVR, respectively. For T90%, the values of RMSEP were 39.0°C, 39.9°C and 39.9°C for PLS, ePLS, SVR and eSVR, respectively. The confidence intervals calculated by the proposed boosting methodology presented acceptable values for the three properties analyzed; however, they were lower than those calculated by the standard methodology for PLS. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Test Statistics and Confidence Intervals to Establish Noninferiority between Treatments with Ordinal Categorical Data.

PubMed

Zhang, Fanghong; Miyaoka, Etsuo; Huang, Fuping; Tanaka, Yutaka

2015-01-01

The problem for establishing noninferiority is discussed between a new treatment and a standard (control) treatment with ordinal categorical data. A measure of treatment effect is used and a method of specifying noninferiority margin for the measure is provided. Two Z-type test statistics are proposed where the estimation of variance is constructed under the shifted null hypothesis using U-statistics. Furthermore, the confidence interval and the sample size formula are given based on the proposed test statistics. The proposed procedure is applied to a dataset from a clinical trial. A simulation study is conducted to compare the performance of the proposed test statistics with that of the existing ones, and the results show that the proposed test statistics are better in terms of the deviation from nominal level and the power.

Standard Errors and Confidence Intervals of Norm Statistics for Educational and Psychological Tests.

PubMed

Oosterhuis, Hannah E M; van der Ark, L Andries; Sijtsma, Klaas

2016-11-14

Norm statistics allow for the interpretation of scores on psychological and educational tests, by relating the test score of an individual test taker to the test scores of individuals belonging to the same gender, age, or education groups, et cetera. Given the uncertainty due to sampling error, one would expect researchers to report standard errors for norm statistics. In practice, standard errors are seldom reported; they are either unavailable or derived under strong distributional assumptions that may not be realistic for test scores. We derived standard errors for four norm statistics (standard deviation, percentile ranks, stanine boundaries and Z-scores) under the mild assumption that the test scores are multinomially distributed. A simulation study showed that the standard errors were unbiased and that corresponding Wald-based confidence intervals had good coverage. Finally, we discuss the possibilities for applying the standard errors in practical test use in education and psychology. The procedure is provided via the R function check.norms, which is available in the mokken package.

Reliability and Confidence Interval Analysis of a CMC Turbine Stator Vane

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Murthy, Pappu L. N.; Gyekenyesi, John P.; Mital, Subodh K.

2008-01-01

an economical manner. The methods to accurately determine the service life of an engine component with associated variability have become increasingly difficult. This results, in part, from the complex missions which are now routinely considered during the design process. These missions include large variations of multi-axial stresses and temperatures experienced by critical engine parts. There is a need for a convenient design tool that can accommodate various loading conditions induced by engine operating environments, and material data with their associated uncertainties to estimate the minimum predicted life of a structural component. A probabilistic composite micromechanics technique in combination with woven composite micromechanics, structural analysis and Fast Probability Integration (FPI) techniques has been used to evaluate the maximum stress and its probabilistic distribution in a CMC turbine stator vane. Furthermore, input variables causing scatter are identified and ranked based upon their sensitivity magnitude. Since the measured data for the ceramic matrix composite properties is very limited, obtaining a probabilistic distribution with their corresponding parameters is difficult. In case of limited data, confidence bounds are essential to quantify the uncertainty associated with the distribution. Usually 90 and 95% confidence intervals are computed for material properties. Failure properties are then computed with the confidence bounds. Best estimates and the confidence bounds on the best estimate of the cumulative probability function for R-S (strength - stress) are plotted. The methodologies and the results from these analyses will be discussed in the presentation.

Empirical likelihood-based confidence intervals for the sensitivity of a continuous-scale diagnostic test at a fixed level of specificity.

PubMed

Gengsheng Qin; Davis, Angela E; Jing, Bing-Yi

2011-06-01

For a continuous-scale diagnostic test, it is often of interest to find the range of the sensitivity of the test at the cut-off that yields a desired specificity. In this article, we first define a profile empirical likelihood ratio for the sensitivity of a continuous-scale diagnostic test and show that its limiting distribution is a scaled chi-square distribution. We then propose two new empirical likelihood-based confidence intervals for the sensitivity of the test at a fixed level of specificity by using the scaled chi-square distribution. Simulation studies are conducted to compare the finite sample performance of the newly proposed intervals with the existing intervals for the sensitivity in terms of coverage probability. A real example is used to illustrate the application of the recommended methods.

Tablet potency of Tianeptine in coated tablets by near infrared spectroscopy: model optimisation, calibration transfer and confidence intervals.

PubMed

Boiret, Mathieu; Meunier, Loïc; Ginot, Yves-Michel

2011-02-20

A near infrared (NIR) method was developed for determination of tablet potency of active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) in a complex coated tablet matrix. The calibration set contained samples from laboratory and production scale batches. The reference values were obtained by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) and partial least squares (PLS) regression was used to establish a model. The model was challenged by calculating tablet potency of two external test sets. Root mean square errors of prediction were respectively equal to 2.0% and 2.7%. To use this model with a second spectrometer from the production field, a calibration transfer method called piecewise direct standardisation (PDS) was used. After the transfer, the root mean square error of prediction of the first test set was 2.4% compared to 4.0% without transferring the spectra. A statistical technique using bootstrap of PLS residuals was used to estimate confidence intervals of tablet potency calculations. This method requires an optimised PLS model, selection of the bootstrap number and determination of the risk. In the case of a chemical analysis, the tablet potency value will be included within the confidence interval calculated by the bootstrap method. An easy to use graphical interface was developed to easily determine if the predictions, surrounded by minimum and maximum values, are within the specifications defined by the regulatory organisation. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

[Confidence interval or p-value--similarities and differences between two important methods of statistical inference of quantitative studies].

PubMed

Harari, Gil

2014-01-01

Statistic significance, also known as p-value, and CI (Confidence Interval) are common statistics measures and are essential for the statistical analysis of studies in medicine and life sciences. These measures provide complementary information about the statistical probability and conclusions regarding the clinical significance of study findings. This article is intended to describe the methodologies, compare between the methods, assert their suitability for the different needs of study results analysis and to explain situations in which each method should be used.

A mathematical framework to quantify the masking effect associated with the confidence intervals of measures of disproportionality

PubMed Central

Maignen, François; Hauben, Manfred; Dogné, Jean-Michel

2017-01-01

Background: The lower bound of the 95% confidence interval of measures of disproportionality (Lower95CI) is widely used in signal detection. Masking is a statistical issue by which true signals of disproportionate reporting are hidden by the presence of other medicines. The primary objective of our study is to develop and validate a mathematical framework for assessing the masking effect of Lower95CI. Methods: We have developed our new algorithm based on the masking ratio (MR) developed for the measures of disproportionality. A MR for the Lower95CI (MRCI) is proposed. A simulation study to validate this algorithm was also conducted. Results: We have established the existence of a very close mathematical relation between MR and MRCI. For a given drug–event pair, the same product will be responsible for the highest masking effect with the measure of disproportionality and its Lower95CI. The extent of masking is likely to be very similar across the two methods. An important proportion of identical drug–event associations affected by the presence of an important masking effect is revealed by the unmasking exercise, whether the proportional reporting ratio (PRR) or its confidence interval are used. Conclusion: The detection of the masking effect of Lower95CI can be automated. The real benefits of this unmasking in terms of new true-positive signals (rate of true-positive/false-positive) or time gained by the revealing of signals using this method have not been fully assessed. These benefits should be demonstrated in the context of prospective studies. PMID:28845231

An approach for sample size determination of average bioequivalence based on interval estimation.

PubMed

Chiang, Chieh; Hsiao, Chin-Fu

2017-03-30

In 1992, the US Food and Drug Administration declared that two drugs demonstrate average bioequivalence (ABE) if the log-transformed mean difference of pharmacokinetic responses lies in (-0.223, 0.223). The most widely used approach for assessing ABE is the two one-sided tests procedure. More specifically, ABE is concluded when a 100(1 - 2α) % confidence interval for mean difference falls within (-0.223, 0.223). As known, bioequivalent studies are usually conducted by crossover design. However, in the case that the half-life of a drug is long, a parallel design for the bioequivalent study may be preferred. In this study, a two-sided interval estimation - such as Satterthwaite's, Cochran-Cox's, or Howe's approximations - is used for assessing parallel ABE. We show that the asymptotic joint distribution of the lower and upper confidence limits is bivariate normal, and thus the sample size can be calculated based on the asymptotic power so that the confidence interval falls within (-0.223, 0.223). Simulation studies also show that the proposed method achieves sufficient empirical power. A real example is provided to illustrate the proposed method. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Predictors of perioperative blood loss in total joint arthroplasty.

PubMed

Park, Jai Hyung; Rasouli, Mohammad R; Mortazavi, S M Javad; Tokarski, Anthony T; Maltenfort, Mitchell G; Parvizi, Javad

2013-10-02

, were evaluated. Multivariate analysis indicated that an increase in blood loss was associated with being male (263.59 mL in male patients who had undergone total hip arthroplasty and 233.60 mL in male patients who had undergone total knee arthroplasty), a Charlson Comorbidity Index of >3 (293.99 mL in patients who had undergone total hip arthroplasty and 167.96 mL in patients who had undergone total knee arthroplasty), and preoperative autologous blood donation (593.51 mL in patients who had undergone total hip arthroplasty and 592.30 mL in patients who had undergone total knee arthroplasty). In patients who underwent total hip arthroplasty, regional anesthesia compared with general anesthesia reduced the amount of blood loss. The risk of allogenic blood transfusion increased with the amount of blood loss in the patients who underwent total hip arthroplasty (odds ratio, 1.43 [95% confidence interval, 1.40 to 1.46]) and the patients who underwent total knee arthroplasty (odds ratio, 1.47 [95% confidence interval, 1.42 to 1.51]), but the risk of blood transfusion increased with the Charlson Comorbidity Index only in patients who underwent total knee arthroplasty (odds ratio, 3.2 [95% confidence interval, 1.99 to 5.15]). The risk of allogenic blood transfusion decreased with preoperative autologous blood donation in patients who underwent total hip arthroplasty (odds ratio, 0.01 [95% confidence interval, 0.01 to 0.02]) and patients who underwent total knee arthroplasty (odds ratio, 0.02 [95% confidence interval, 0.01 to 0.03]). This study identified some clinical predictors for blood loss in patients undergoing total joint arthroplasty that we believe can be used for implementing more effective blood conservation strategies. Prognostic Level IV. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

Methods for estimating confidence intervals in interrupted time series analyses of health interventions.

PubMed

Zhang, Fang; Wagner, Anita K; Soumerai, Stephen B; Ross-Degnan, Dennis

2009-02-01

Interrupted time series (ITS) is a strong quasi-experimental research design, which is increasingly applied to estimate the effects of health services and policy interventions. We describe and illustrate two methods for estimating confidence intervals (CIs) around absolute and relative changes in outcomes calculated from segmented regression parameter estimates. We used multivariate delta and bootstrapping methods (BMs) to construct CIs around relative changes in level and trend, and around absolute changes in outcome based on segmented linear regression analyses of time series data corrected for autocorrelated errors. Using previously published time series data, we estimated CIs around the effect of prescription alerts for interacting medications with warfarin on the rate of prescriptions per 10,000 warfarin users per month. Both the multivariate delta method (MDM) and the BM produced similar results. BM is preferred for calculating CIs of relative changes in outcomes of time series studies, because it does not require large sample sizes when parameter estimates are obtained correctly from the model. Caution is needed when sample size is small.

Uncertainty in Population Growth Rates: Determining Confidence Intervals from Point Estimates of Parameters

PubMed Central

Devenish Nelson, Eleanor S.; Harris, Stephen; Soulsbury, Carl D.; Richards, Shane A.; Stephens, Philip A.

2010-01-01

Background Demographic models are widely used in conservation and management, and their parameterisation often relies on data collected for other purposes. When underlying data lack clear indications of associated uncertainty, modellers often fail to account for that uncertainty in model outputs, such as estimates of population growth. Methodology/Principal Findings We applied a likelihood approach to infer uncertainty retrospectively from point estimates of vital rates. Combining this with resampling techniques and projection modelling, we show that confidence intervals for population growth estimates are easy to derive. We used similar techniques to examine the effects of sample size on uncertainty. Our approach is illustrated using data on the red fox, Vulpes vulpes, a predator of ecological and cultural importance, and the most widespread extant terrestrial mammal. We show that uncertainty surrounding estimated population growth rates can be high, even for relatively well-studied populations. Halving that uncertainty typically requires a quadrupling of sampling effort. Conclusions/Significance Our results compel caution when comparing demographic trends between populations without accounting for uncertainty. Our methods will be widely applicable to demographic studies of many species. PMID:21049049

Independent and Joint Effect of Brachial-Ankle Pulse Wave Velocity and Blood Pressure Control on Incident Stroke in Hypertensive Adults.

PubMed

Song, Yun; Xu, Benjamin; Xu, Richard; Tung, Renee; Frank, Eric; Tromble, Wayne; Fu, Tong; Zhang, Weiyi; Yu, Tao; Zhang, Chunyan; Fan, Fangfang; Zhang, Yan; Li, Jianping; Bao, Huihui; Cheng, Xiaoshu; Qin, Xianhui; Tang, Genfu; Chen, Yundai; Yang, Tianlun; Sun, Ningling; Li, Xiaoying; Zhao, Lianyou; Hou, Fan Fan; Ge, Junbo; Dong, Qiang; Wang, Binyan; Xu, Xiping; Huo, Yong

2016-07-01

Pulse wave velocity (PWV) has been shown to influence the effects of antihypertensive drugs in the prevention of cardiovascular diseases. Data are limited on whether PWV is an independent predictor of stroke above and beyond hypertension control. This longitudinal analysis examined the independent and joint effect of brachial-ankle PWV (baPWV) with hypertension control on the risk of first stroke. This report included 3310 hypertensive adults, a subset of the China Stroke Primary Prevention Trial (CSPPT) with baseline measurements for baPWV. During a median follow-up of 4.5 years, 111 participants developed first stroke. The risk of stroke was higher among participants with baPWV in the highest quartile than among those in the lower quartiles (6.3% versus 2.4%; hazard ratio, 1.66; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-2.60). Similarly, the participants with inadequate hypertension control had a higher risk of stroke than those with adequate control (5.1% versus 1.8%; hazard ratio, 2.32; 95% confidence interval, 1.49-3.61). When baPWV and hypertension control were examined jointly, participants in the highest baPWV quartile and with inadequate hypertension control had the highest risk of stroke compared with their counterparts (7.5% versus 1.3%; hazard ratio, 3.57; 95% confidence interval, 1.88-6.77). There was a significant and independent effect of high baPWV on stroke as shown among participants with adequate hypertension control (4.2% versus 1.3%; hazard ratio, 2.29, 95% confidence interval, 1.09-4.81). In summary, among hypertensive patients, baPWV and hypertension control were found to independently and jointly affect the risk of first stroke. Participants with high baPWV and inadequate hypertension control had the highest risk of stroke compared with other groups. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Applications of asymptotic confidence intervals with continuity corrections for asymmetric comparisons in noninferiority trials.

PubMed

Soulakova, Julia N; Bright, Brianna C

2013-01-01

A large-sample problem of illustrating noninferiority of an experimental treatment over a referent treatment for binary outcomes is considered. The methods of illustrating noninferiority involve constructing the lower two-sided confidence bound for the difference between binomial proportions corresponding to the experimental and referent treatments and comparing it with the negative value of the noninferiority margin. The three considered methods, Anbar, Falk-Koch, and Reduced Falk-Koch, handle the comparison in an asymmetric way, that is, only the referent proportion out of the two, experimental and referent, is directly involved in the expression for the variance of the difference between two sample proportions. Five continuity corrections (including zero) are considered with respect to each approach. The key properties of the corresponding methods are evaluated via simulations. First, the uncorrected two-sided confidence intervals can, potentially, have smaller coverage probability than the nominal level even for moderately large sample sizes, for example, 150 per group. Next, the 15 testing methods are discussed in terms of their Type I error rate and power. In the settings with a relatively small referent proportion (about 0.4 or smaller), the Anbar approach with Yates' continuity correction is recommended for balanced designs and the Falk-Koch method with Yates' correction is recommended for unbalanced designs. For relatively moderate (about 0.6) and large (about 0.8 or greater) referent proportion, the uncorrected Reduced Falk-Koch method is recommended, although in this case, all methods tend to be over-conservative. These results are expected to be used in the design stage of a noninferiority study when asymmetric comparisons are envisioned. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Evaluating the Impact of Guessing and Its Interactions With Other Test Characteristics on Confidence Interval Procedures for Coefficient Alpha

PubMed Central

Paek, Insu

2015-01-01

The effect of guessing on the point estimate of coefficient alpha has been studied in the literature, but the impact of guessing and its interactions with other test characteristics on the interval estimators for coefficient alpha has not been fully investigated. This study examined the impact of guessing and its interactions with other test characteristics on four confidence interval (CI) procedures for coefficient alpha in terms of coverage rate (CR), length, and the degree of asymmetry of CI estimates. In addition, interval estimates of coefficient alpha when data follow the essentially tau-equivalent condition were investigated as a supplement to the case of dichotomous data with examinee guessing. For dichotomous data with guessing, the results did not reveal salient negative effects of guessing and its interactions with other test characteristics (sample size, test length, coefficient alpha levels) on CR and the degree of asymmetry, but the effect of guessing was salient as a main effect and an interaction effect with sample size on the length of the CI estimates, making longer CI estimates as guessing increases, especially when combined with a small sample size. Other important effects (e.g., CI procedures on CR) are also discussed. PMID:29795863

Confidence interval estimation of the difference between two sensitivities to the early disease stage.

PubMed

Dong, Tuochuan; Kang, Le; Hutson, Alan; Xiong, Chengjie; Tian, Lili

2014-03-01

Although most of the statistical methods for diagnostic studies focus on disease processes with binary disease status, many diseases can be naturally classified into three ordinal diagnostic categories, that is normal, early stage, and fully diseased. For such diseases, the volume under the ROC surface (VUS) is the most commonly used index of diagnostic accuracy. Because the early disease stage is most likely the optimal time window for therapeutic intervention, the sensitivity to the early diseased stage has been suggested as another diagnostic measure. For the purpose of comparing the diagnostic abilities on early disease detection between two markers, it is of interest to estimate the confidence interval of the difference between sensitivities to the early diseased stage. In this paper, we present both parametric and non-parametric methods for this purpose. An extensive simulation study is carried out for a variety of settings for the purpose of evaluating and comparing the performance of the proposed methods. A real example of Alzheimer's disease (AD) is analyzed using the proposed approaches. © 2013 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Confidence level estimation in multi-target classification problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Shi; Isaacs, Jason; Fu, Bo; Shin, Jaejeong; Zhu, Pingping; Ferrari, Silvia

2018-04-01

This paper presents an approach for estimating the confidence level in automatic multi-target classification performed by an imaging sensor on an unmanned vehicle. An automatic target recognition algorithm comprised of a deep convolutional neural network in series with a support vector machine classifier detects and classifies targets based on the image matrix. The joint posterior probability mass function of target class, features, and classification estimates is learned from labeled data, and recursively updated as additional images become available. Based on the learned joint probability mass function, the approach presented in this paper predicts the expected confidence level of future target classifications, prior to obtaining new images. The proposed approach is tested with a set of simulated sonar image data. The numerical results show that the estimated confidence level provides a close approximation to the actual confidence level value determined a posteriori, i.e. after the new image is obtained by the on-board sensor. Therefore, the expected confidence level function presented in this paper can be used to adaptively plan the path of the unmanned vehicle so as to optimize the expected confidence levels and ensure that all targets are classified with satisfactory confidence after the path is executed.

Using real-time ultrasound imaging as adjunct teaching tools to enhance physical therapist students' ability and confidence to perform traction of the knee joint.

PubMed

Markowski, Alycia; Watkins, Maureen K; Burnett, Todd; Ho, Melissa; Ling, Michael

2018-04-01

Often, physical therapy students struggle with the skill and the confidence to perform manual techniques for musculoskeletal examination. Current teaching methods lack concurrent objective feedback. Real-time ultrasound imaging (RTUI) has the advantage of generating visualization of anatomical structures in real-time in an efficient and safe manner. We hypothesize that the use of RTUI to augment teaching with concurrent objective visual feedback will result in students' improved ability to create a change in joint space when performing a manual knee traction and higher confidence scores. Eighty-six students were randomly allocated to a control or an experimental group. All participants received baseline instructions on how to perform knee traction. The control group received standardized lab instruction (visual, video, and instructor/partner feedback). The experimental group received standardized lab instruction augmented with RTUI feedback. Pre-data and post-data collection consisted of measuring participants' ability to create changes in joint space when performing knee traction, a confidence survey evaluating perceived ability and a reflection paper. Joint space changes between groups were compared using a paired t-test. Surveys were analyzed with descriptive statistics and compared using Wilcoxon Rank Sum and for the reflection papers, themes were identified and descriptive statistics reported. Although there were no statistically significant differences between the control and the experimental group, overall scores improved. Qualitative data suggests students found the use of ultrasound imaging beneficial and would like more exposure. This novel approach to teaching knee traction with RTUI has potential and may be a basis for further studies. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Confidence intervals for single-case effect size measures based on randomization test inversion.

PubMed

Michiels, Bart; Heyvaert, Mieke; Meulders, Ann; Onghena, Patrick

2017-02-01

In the current paper, we present a method to construct nonparametric confidence intervals (CIs) for single-case effect size measures in the context of various single-case designs. We use the relationship between a two-sided statistical hypothesis test at significance level α and a 100 (1 - α) % two-sided CI to construct CIs for any effect size measure θ that contain all point null hypothesis θ values that cannot be rejected by the hypothesis test at significance level α. This method of hypothesis test inversion (HTI) can be employed using a randomization test as the statistical hypothesis test in order to construct a nonparametric CI for θ. We will refer to this procedure as randomization test inversion (RTI). We illustrate RTI in a situation in which θ is the unstandardized and the standardized difference in means between two treatments in a completely randomized single-case design. Additionally, we demonstrate how RTI can be extended to other types of single-case designs. Finally, we discuss a few challenges for RTI as well as possibilities when using the method with other effect size measures, such as rank-based nonoverlap indices. Supplementary to this paper, we provide easy-to-use R code, which allows the user to construct nonparametric CIs according to the proposed method.

Confidence intervals for differences between volumes under receiver operating characteristic surfaces (VUS) and generalized Youden indices (GYIs).

PubMed

Yin, Jingjing; Nakas, Christos T; Tian, Lili; Reiser, Benjamin

2018-03-01

This article explores both existing and new methods for the construction of confidence intervals for differences of indices of diagnostic accuracy of competing pairs of biomarkers in three-class classification problems and fills the methodological gaps for both parametric and non-parametric approaches in the receiver operating characteristic surface framework. The most widely used such indices are the volume under the receiver operating characteristic surface and the generalized Youden index. We describe implementation of all methods and offer insight regarding the appropriateness of their use through a large simulation study with different distributional and sample size scenarios. Methods are illustrated using data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative study, where assessment of cognitive function naturally results in a three-class classification setting.

Hereditary hemochromatosis as a risk factor for joint replacement surgery.

PubMed

Sahinbegovic, Enijad; Dallos, Tomás; Aigner, Elmar; Axmann, Roland; Engelbrecht, Matthias; Schöniger-Hekele, Maximilian; Karonitsch, Thomas; Farkas, Martin; Karger, Thomas; Willeit, Johann; Stölzel, Ulrich; Keysser, Gernot; Datz, Christian; Kiechl, Stefan; Schett, Georg; Zwerina, Jochen

2010-07-01

Hemochromatosis is an inherited disease with iron overload and joint involvement resembling osteoarthritis. To determine the rate of joint replacement surgery in patients with hemochromatosis, we performed a cross-sectional cohort study. A total of 199 individuals with hereditary hemochromatosis were included. The prevalence of joint replacement surgery in hip, knee, and ankle joints because of secondary osteoarthritis was assessed. Data were compared with 917 healthy subjects from the population-based Bruneck study. A total of 32 of 199 individuals with hemochromatosis received joint replacement surgery with a total number of 52 joints replaced. Compared with expected rates in healthy individuals, patients with hemochromatosis had a significantly higher risk for joint replacement surgery (odds ratio 9.0; confidence interval, 4.6-17.4). Joint replacement occurred significantly earlier in life in patients with hemochromatosis; 21.9% of the patients with hemochromatosis and 1.7% of healthy individuals required joint replacement before the age of 50 years (P=.0027). Moreover, patients with hemochromatosis were more likely to require multiple joint replacements (8.5%) than the control group (expected rate 0.3%; P=.0001). Hemochromatosis is a risk factor for joint replacement surgery because of severe secondary osteoarthritis. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Abstract: Inference and Interval Estimation for Indirect Effects With Latent Variable Models.

PubMed

Falk, Carl F; Biesanz, Jeremy C

2011-11-30

Models specifying indirect effects (or mediation) and structural equation modeling are both popular in the social sciences. Yet relatively little research has compared methods that test for indirect effects among latent variables and provided precise estimates of the effectiveness of different methods. This simulation study provides an extensive comparison of methods for constructing confidence intervals and for making inferences about indirect effects with latent variables. We compared the percentile (PC) bootstrap, bias-corrected (BC) bootstrap, bias-corrected accelerated (BC a ) bootstrap, likelihood-based confidence intervals (Neale & Miller, 1997), partial posterior predictive (Biesanz, Falk, and Savalei, 2010), and joint significance tests based on Wald tests or likelihood ratio tests. All models included three reflective latent variables representing the independent, dependent, and mediating variables. The design included the following fully crossed conditions: (a) sample size: 100, 200, and 500; (b) number of indicators per latent variable: 3 versus 5; (c) reliability per set of indicators: .7 versus .9; (d) and 16 different path combinations for the indirect effect (α = 0, .14, .39, or .59; and β = 0, .14, .39, or .59). Simulations were performed using a WestGrid cluster of 1680 3.06GHz Intel Xeon processors running R and OpenMx. Results based on 1,000 replications per cell and 2,000 resamples per bootstrap method indicated that the BC and BC a bootstrap methods have inflated Type I error rates. Likelihood-based confidence intervals and the PC bootstrap emerged as methods that adequately control Type I error and have good coverage rates.

[Significance of the glenoid labrum for stability of the glenohumeral joint. An experimental study].

PubMed

Habermeyer, P; Schuller, U

1990-01-01

In human cadavers we were able to show that the glenohumeral joint is comparable to the model of a physical piston. The labrum glenoidale functions like a valve against atmospheric pressure. It is possible to characterize the behavior of intraarticular negative pressure by the equation (formula; see text). The calculations of the force F of atmospheric pressure tending to resist distraction of the joint surfaces leads to a 95% confidence interval from 6.9 to 22.9 kp. Under a general anesthetic, distraction of the healthy glenohumeral joint also produces negative intraarticular pressure in the area of the fossa glenoidalis in vivo. Joints with a labral tear (Bankart defect) and a chronic instability are not characterized by this phenomenon. A change in intraarticular pressure might stimulate intraarticular pressure receptors. This could be important in functioning as a neuromuscular protection reflex for the joint.

Neutron multiplicity counting: Confidence intervals for reconstruction parameters

DOE PAGES

Verbeke, Jerome M.

2016-03-09

From nuclear materials accountability to homeland security, the need for improved nuclear material detection, assay, and authentication has grown over the past decades. Starting in the 1940s, neutron multiplicity counting techniques have enabled quantitative evaluation of masses and multiplications of fissile materials. In this paper, we propose a new method to compute uncertainties on these parameters using a model-based sequential Bayesian processor, resulting in credible regions in the fissile material mass and multiplication space. These uncertainties will enable us to evaluate quantitatively proposed improvements to the theoretical fission chain model. Additionally, because the processor can calculate uncertainties in real time,more » it is a useful tool in applications such as portal monitoring: monitoring can stop as soon as a preset confidence of non-threat is reached.« less

Methods for the accurate estimation of confidence intervals on protein folding ϕ-values

PubMed Central

Ruczinski, Ingo; Sosnick, Tobin R.; Plaxco, Kevin W.

2006-01-01

ϕ-Values provide an important benchmark for the comparison of experimental protein folding studies to computer simulations and theories of the folding process. Despite the growing importance of ϕ measurements, however, formulas to quantify the precision with which ϕ is measured have seen little significant discussion. Moreover, a commonly employed method for the determination of standard errors on ϕ estimates assumes that estimates of the changes in free energy of the transition and folded states are independent. Here we demonstrate that this assumption is usually incorrect and that this typically leads to the underestimation of ϕ precision. We derive an analytical expression for the precision of ϕ estimates (assuming linear chevron behavior) that explicitly takes this dependence into account. We also describe an alternative method that implicitly corrects for the effect. By simulating experimental chevron data, we show that both methods accurately estimate ϕ confidence intervals. We also explore the effects of the commonly employed techniques of calculating ϕ from kinetics estimated at non-zero denaturant concentrations and via the assumption of parallel chevron arms. We find that these approaches can produce significantly different estimates for ϕ (again, even for truly linear chevron behavior), indicating that they are not equivalent, interchangeable measures of transition state structure. Lastly, we describe a Web-based implementation of the above algorithms for general use by the protein folding community. PMID:17008714

A methodology for airplane parameter estimation and confidence interval determination in nonlinear estimation problems. Ph.D. Thesis - George Washington Univ., Apr. 1985

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Murphy, P. C.

1986-01-01

An algorithm for maximum likelihood (ML) estimation is developed with an efficient method for approximating the sensitivities. The ML algorithm relies on a new optimization method referred to as a modified Newton-Raphson with estimated sensitivities (MNRES). MNRES determines sensitivities by using slope information from local surface approximations of each output variable in parameter space. With the fitted surface, sensitivity information can be updated at each iteration with less computational effort than that required by either a finite-difference method or integration of the analytically determined sensitivity equations. MNRES eliminates the need to derive sensitivity equations for each new model, and thus provides flexibility to use model equations in any convenient format. A random search technique for determining the confidence limits of ML parameter estimates is applied to nonlinear estimation problems for airplanes. The confidence intervals obtained by the search are compared with Cramer-Rao (CR) bounds at the same confidence level. The degree of nonlinearity in the estimation problem is an important factor in the relationship between CR bounds and the error bounds determined by the search technique. Beale's measure of nonlinearity is developed in this study for airplane identification problems; it is used to empirically correct confidence levels and to predict the degree of agreement between CR bounds and search estimates.

Serum and Wound Vancomycin Levels After Intrawound Administration in Primary Total Joint Arthroplasty.

PubMed

Johnson, Jeremiah D; Nessler, Joseph M; Horazdovsky, Ryan D; Vang, Sandy; Thomas, Avis J; Marston, Scott B

2017-03-01

Periprosthetic joint infection is the most common cause of readmissions after total joint arthroplasty (TJA). Intrawound vancomycin powder (VP) has reduced infection rates in spine surgery; however, there are no data regarding VP in primary TJA. Thirty-four TJA patients received 2 g of VP intraoperatively to investigate VP's pharmacokinetics. Serum and wound concentrations were measured at multiple intervals over 24 hours after closure. All serum concentrations were subtherapeutic (<15μg/mL) and peaked 12 hours after closure (4.7μg/mL; standard deviation [SD], 3.2). Wound concentrations were 922 μg/mL (SD, 523) 3 hours after closure and 207 μg/mL (SD, 317) at 24 hours. VP had a half-life of 7.2 hours (95% confidence interval, 7.0-9.3) in TJA wounds. VP produced highly therapeutic intrawound concentrations while yielding low systemic levels in TJA. VP may serve as a safe adjunct in the prevention of periprosthetic joint infection. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimation and confidence intervals for empirical mixing distributions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, W.A.; Sauer, J.R.

1995-01-01

Questions regarding collections of parameter estimates can frequently be expressed in terms of an empirical mixing distribution (EMD). This report discusses empirical Bayes estimation of an EMD, with emphasis on the construction of interval estimates. Estimation of the EMD is accomplished by substitution of estimates of prior parameters in the posterior mean of the EMD. This procedure is examined in a parametric model (the normal-normal mixture) and in a semi-parametric model. In both cases, the empirical Bayes bootstrap of Laird and Louis (1987, Journal of the American Statistical Association 82, 739-757) is used to assess the variability of the estimated EMD arising from the estimation of prior parameters. The proposed methods are applied to a meta-analysis of population trend estimates for groups of birds.

Learning to make collective decisions: the impact of confidence escalation.

PubMed

Mahmoodi, Ali; Bang, Dan; Ahmadabadi, Majid Nili; Bahrami, Bahador

2013-01-01

Little is known about how people learn to take into account others' opinions in joint decisions. To address this question, we combined computational and empirical approaches. Human dyads made individual and joint visual perceptual decision and rated their confidence in those decisions (data previously published). We trained a reinforcement (temporal difference) learning agent to get the participants' confidence level and learn to arrive at a dyadic decision by finding the policy that either maximized the accuracy of the model decisions or maximally conformed to the empirical dyadic decisions. When confidences were shared visually without verbal interaction, RL agents successfully captured social learning. When participants exchanged confidences visually and interacted verbally, no collective benefit was achieved and the model failed to predict the dyadic behaviour. Behaviourally, dyad members' confidence increased progressively and verbal interaction accelerated this escalation. The success of the model in drawing collective benefit from dyad members was inversely related to confidence escalation rate. The findings show an automated learning agent can, in principle, combine individual opinions and achieve collective benefit but the same agent cannot discount the escalation suggesting that one cognitive component of collective decision making in human may involve discounting of overconfidence arising from interactions.

Performance analysis of complex repairable industrial systems using PSO and fuzzy confidence interval based methodology.

PubMed

Garg, Harish

2013-03-01

The main objective of the present paper is to propose a methodology for analyzing the behavior of the complex repairable industrial systems. In real-life situations, it is difficult to find the most optimal design policies for MTBF (mean time between failures), MTTR (mean time to repair) and related costs by utilizing available resources and uncertain data. For this, the availability-cost optimization model has been constructed for determining the optimal design parameters for improving the system design efficiency. The uncertainties in the data related to each component of the system are estimated with the help of fuzzy and statistical methodology in the form of the triangular fuzzy numbers. Using these data, the various reliability parameters, which affects the system performance, are obtained in the form of the fuzzy membership function by the proposed confidence interval based fuzzy Lambda-Tau (CIBFLT) methodology. The computed results by CIBFLT are compared with the existing fuzzy Lambda-Tau methodology. Sensitivity analysis on the system MTBF has also been addressed. The methodology has been illustrated through a case study of washing unit, the main part of the paper industry. Copyright © 2012 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Standard errors and confidence intervals for variable importance in random forest regression, classification, and survival.

PubMed

Ishwaran, Hemant; Lu, Min

2018-06-04

Random forests are a popular nonparametric tree ensemble procedure with broad applications to data analysis. While its widespread popularity stems from its prediction performance, an equally important feature is that it provides a fully nonparametric measure of variable importance (VIMP). A current limitation of VIMP, however, is that no systematic method exists for estimating its variance. As a solution, we propose a subsampling approach that can be used to estimate the variance of VIMP and for constructing confidence intervals. The method is general enough that it can be applied to many useful settings, including regression, classification, and survival problems. Using extensive simulations, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the subsampling estimator and in particular find that the delete-d jackknife variance estimator, a close cousin, is especially effective under low subsampling rates due to its bias correction properties. These 2 estimators are highly competitive when compared with the .164 bootstrap estimator, a modified bootstrap procedure designed to deal with ties in out-of-sample data. Most importantly, subsampling is computationally fast, thus making it especially attractive for big data settings. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Joint Effects of Ambient Air Pollutants on Pediatric Asthma ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Background: Because ambient air pollution exposure occurs in the form of mixtures, consideration of joint effects of multiple pollutants may advance our understanding of air pollution health effects. Methods: We assessed the joint effect of selected ambient air pollutant combinations (groups of oxidant, secondary, traffic, power plant, and criteria pollutants constructed using combinations of criteria gases, fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and PM2.5 components) on warm season pediatric asthma emergency department (ED) visits in Atlanta during 1998-2004. Joint effects were assessed using multi-pollutant Poisson generalized linear models controlling for time trends, meteorology and daily non-asthma respiratory ED visit counts. Rate ratios (RR) were calculated for the combined effect of an interquartile-range increment in the concentration of each pollutant. Results: Increases in all of the selected pollutant combinations were associated with increases in pediatric asthma ED visits [e.g., joint effect rate ratio=1.13 (95% confidence interval 1.06-1.21) for criteria pollutants (including ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide, and PM2.5)]. Joint effect estimates were smaller than estimates calculated based on summing results from single-pollutant models, due to control for confounding. Compared with models without interactions, joint effect estimates from models including first-order pollutant interactions were similar for oxidant a

Potential artifacts associated with historical preparation of joint compound samples and reported airborne asbestos concentrations.

PubMed

Brorby, G P; Sheehan, P J; Berman, D W; Bogen, K T; Holm, S E

2011-05-01

Airborne samples collected in the 1970s for drywall workers using asbestos-containing joint compounds were likely prepared and analyzed according to National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health Method P&CAM 239, the historical precursor to current Method 7400. Experimentation with a re-created, chrysotile-containing, carbonate-based joint compound suggested that analysis following sample preparation by the historical vs. current method produces different fiber counts, likely because of an interaction between the different clearing and mounting chemicals used and the carbonate-based joint compound matrix. Differences were also observed during analysis using Method 7402, depending on whether acetic acid/dimethylformamide or acetone was used during preparation to collapse the filter. Specifically, air samples of sanded chrysotile-containing joint compound prepared by the historical method yielded fiber counts significantly greater (average of 1.7-fold, 95% confidence interval: 1.5- to 2.0-fold) than those obtained by the current method. In addition, air samples prepared by Method 7402 using acetic acid/dimethylformamide yielded fiber counts that were greater (2.8-fold, 95% confidence interval: 2.5- to 3.2-fold) than those prepared by this method using acetone. These results indicated (1) there is an interaction between Method P&CAM 239 preparation chemicals and the carbonate-based joint compound matrix that reveals fibers that were previously bound in the matrix, and (2) the same appeared to be true for Method 7402 preparation chemicals acetic acid/dimethylformamide. This difference in fiber counts is the opposite of what has been reported historically for samples of relatively pure chrysotile dusts prepared using the same chemicals. This preparation artifact should be considered when interpreting historical air samples for drywall workers prepared by Method P&CAM 239. Copyright © 2011 JOEH, LLC

Confidence Intervals for Laboratory Sonic Boom Annoyance Tests

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rathsam, Jonathan; Christian, Andrew

2016-01-01

Commercial supersonic flight is currently forbidden over land because sonic booms have historically caused unacceptable annoyance levels in overflown communities. NASA is providing data and expertise to noise regulators as they consider relaxing the ban for future quiet supersonic aircraft. One deliverable NASA will provide is a predictive model for indoor annoyance to aid in setting an acceptable quiet sonic boom threshold. A laboratory study was conducted to determine how indoor vibrations caused by sonic booms affect annoyance judgments. The test method required finding the point of subjective equality (PSE) between sonic boom signals that cause vibrations and signals not causing vibrations played at various amplitudes. This presentation focuses on a few statistical techniques for estimating the interval around the PSE. The techniques examined are the Delta Method, Parametric and Nonparametric Bootstrapping, and Bayesian Posterior Estimation.

Weighted regression analysis and interval estimators

Treesearch

Donald W. Seegrist

1974-01-01

A method for deriving the weighted least squares estimators for the parameters of a multiple regression model. Confidence intervals for expected values, and prediction intervals for the means of future samples are given.

The prognostic value of the QT interval and QT interval dispersion in all-cause and cardiac mortality and morbidity in a population of Danish citizens.

PubMed

Elming, H; Holm, E; Jun, L; Torp-Pedersen, C; Køber, L; Kircshoff, M; Malik, M; Camm, J

1998-09-01

To evaluate the prognostic value of the QT interval and QT interval dispersion in total and in cardiovascular mortality, as well as in cardiac morbidity, in a general population. The QT interval was measured in all leads from a standard 12-lead ECG in a random sample of 1658 women and 1797 men aged 30-60 years. QT interval dispersion was calculated from the maximal difference between QT intervals in any two leads. All cause mortality over 13 years, and cardiovascular mortality as well as cardiac morbidity over 11 years, were the main outcome parameters. Subjects with a prolonged QT interval (430 ms or more) or prolonged QT interval dispersion (80 ms or more) were at higher risk of cardiovascular death and cardiac morbidity than subjects whose QT interval was less than 360 ms, or whose QT interval dispersion was less than 30 ms. Cardiovascular death relative risk ratios, adjusted for age, gender, myocardial infarct, angina pectoris, diabetes mellitus, arterial hypertension, smoking habits, serum cholesterol level, and heart rate were 2.9 for the QT interval (95% confidence interval 1.1-7.8) and 4.4 for QT interval dispersion (95% confidence interval 1.0-19-1). Fatal and non-fatal cardiac morbidity relative risk ratios were similar, at 2.7 (95% confidence interval 1.4-5.5) for the QT interval and 2.2 (95% confidence interval 1.1-4.0) for QT interval dispersion. Prolongation of the QT interval and QT interval dispersion independently affected the prognosis of cardiovascular mortality and cardiac fatal and non-fatal morbidity in a general population over 11 years.

Are joint injury, sport activity, physical activity, obesity, or occupational activities predictors for osteoarthritis? A systematic review.

PubMed

Richmond, Sarah A; Fukuchi, Reginaldo K; Ezzat, Allison; Schneider, Kathryn; Schneider, Geoff; Emery, Carolyn A

2013-08-01

Systematic review with meta-analysis. To identify risk factors for osteoarthritis (OA) of the knee, hip, and ankle, including joint injury, sport, physical activity, overweight/obesity, and occupational activity, in all age groups. OA is a significant health problem worldwide, affecting up to 10% of men and 18% of women over 60 years of age. There has not been a comprehensive review examining modifiable physical risk factors associated with the onset of OA. This evidence is important to inform the physiotherapy management of individuals following onset of OA. Twelve electronic databases were systematically reviewed. The studies selected met the following criteria: (1) original data; (2) joint injury, sport activity, physical activity, overweight/obesity, and/or occupational activity investigated as risk factors; (3) outcomes included OA (hip, knee, and/or ankle); and (4) analytic component of study design. The data extracted included study design, years of follow-up, study population, OA definition, risk factors, and results (effect estimates reported or calculated where available). The quality of evidence was assessed based on a modified version of the Downs and Black checklist. Joint injury, obesity, and occupational activity were associated with an increased risk of OA of the knee and hip. Sport and physical activity produced inconsistent findings. Joint injury was identified as a significant risk factor for knee OA (combined odds ratio = 3.8; 95% confidence interval: 2.0, 7.2) and hip OA (combined odds ratio = 5.0; 95% confidence interval: 1.4, 18.2), as was previous meniscectomy with or without anterior cruciate ligament injury for knee OA (combined odds ratio = 7.4; 95% confidence interval: 4.0, 13.7). There is a paucity of research examining risk factors associated with ankle OA; this review identified only 2 studies with this outcome. Joint injury, obesity, and occupational activity are associated with an increased risk of knee and hip OA. Some findings

Intervals for posttest probabilities: a comparison of 5 methods.

PubMed

Mossman, D; Berger, J O

2001-01-01

Several medical articles discuss methods of constructing confidence intervals for single proportions and the likelihood ratio, but scant attention has been given to the systematic study of intervals for the posterior odds, or the positive predictive value, of a test. The authors describe 5 methods of constructing confidence intervals for posttest probabilities when estimates of sensitivity, specificity, and the pretest probability of a disorder are derived from empirical data. They then evaluate each method to determine how well the intervals' coverage properties correspond to their nominal value. When the estimates of pretest probabilities, sensitivity, and specificity are derived from more than 80 subjects and are not close to 0 or 1, all methods generate intervals with appropriate coverage properties. When these conditions are not met, however, the best-performing method is an objective Bayesian approach implemented by a simple simulation using a spreadsheet. Physicians and investigators can generate accurate confidence intervals for posttest probabilities in small-sample situations using the objective Bayesian approach.

The Design, Development, and Reliability Testing of a New Innovative Device to Measure Ankle Joint Dorsiflexion.

PubMed

Charles, James

2016-09-02

In clinical and research settings, ankle joint dorsiflexion needs to be reliably measured. Dorsiflexion is often measured by goniometry, but the intrarater and interrater reliability of this technique have been reported to be poor. Many devices to measure dorsiflexion have been developed for clinical and research use. An evaluation of 12 current tools showed that none met all of the desirable criteria. The purpose of this study was to design and develop a device that rates highly in all of the criteria and that can be proved to be highly reliable. While supine on a treatment table, 14 participants had a foot placed in the Charles device and ankle joint dorsiflexion measured and recorded three times with a digital inclinometer. The mean of the three readings was determined to be the ankle joint dorsiflexion. The analysis used was intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC). There was very little difference in ICC single or average measures between left and right feet, so data were pooled (N = 28). The single-measure ICC was 0.998 (95% confidence interval, 0.996-0.998). The average-measure ICC was 0.998 (95% confidence interval, 0.995-0.999). Limits of agreement for the average measure were also very good: -1.30° to 1.65°. The Charles device meets all of the desirable criteria and has many innovative features, increasing its appropriateness for clinical and research applications. It has a suitable design for measuring dorsiflexion and high intrarater and interrater reliability.

A new framework of statistical inferences based on the valid joint sampling distribution of the observed counts in an incomplete contingency table.

PubMed

Tian, Guo-Liang; Li, Hui-Qiong

2017-08-01

Some existing confidence interval methods and hypothesis testing methods in the analysis of a contingency table with incomplete observations in both margins entirely depend on an underlying assumption that the sampling distribution of the observed counts is a product of independent multinomial/binomial distributions for complete and incomplete counts. However, it can be shown that this independency assumption is incorrect and can result in unreliable conclusions because of the under-estimation of the uncertainty. Therefore, the first objective of this paper is to derive the valid joint sampling distribution of the observed counts in a contingency table with incomplete observations in both margins. The second objective is to provide a new framework for analyzing incomplete contingency tables based on the derived joint sampling distribution of the observed counts by developing a Fisher scoring algorithm to calculate maximum likelihood estimates of parameters of interest, the bootstrap confidence interval methods, and the bootstrap testing hypothesis methods. We compare the differences between the valid sampling distribution and the sampling distribution under the independency assumption. Simulation studies showed that average/expected confidence-interval widths of parameters based on the sampling distribution under the independency assumption are shorter than those based on the new sampling distribution, yielding unrealistic results. A real data set is analyzed to illustrate the application of the new sampling distribution for incomplete contingency tables and the analysis results again confirm the conclusions obtained from the simulation studies.

The Logic of Summative Confidence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gugiu, P. Cristian

2007-01-01

The constraints of conducting evaluations in real-world settings often necessitate the implementation of less than ideal designs. Unfortunately, the standard method for estimating the precision of a result (i.e., confidence intervals [CI]) cannot be used for evaluative conclusions that are derived from multiple indicators, measures, and data…

Razonamiento de Estudiantes Universitarios sobre Variabilidad e Intervalos de Confianza en un Contexto Inferencial Informal = University Students' Reasoning on Variability and Confidence Intervals in Inferential Informal Context

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Inzunsa Cazares, Santiago

2016-01-01

This article presents the results of a qualitative research with a group of 15 university students of social sciences on informal inferential reasoning developed in a computer environment on concepts involved in the confidence intervals. The results indicate that students developed a correct reasoning about sampling variability and visualized…

Adjusted Wald Confidence Interval for a Difference of Binomial Proportions Based on Paired Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bonett, Douglas G.; Price, Robert M.

2012-01-01

Adjusted Wald intervals for binomial proportions in one-sample and two-sample designs have been shown to perform about as well as the best available methods. The adjusted Wald intervals are easy to compute and have been incorporated into introductory statistics courses. An adjusted Wald interval for paired binomial proportions is proposed here and…

Joint modelling of longitudinal outcome and interval-censored competing risk dropout in a schizophrenia clinical trial

PubMed Central

Gueorguieva, Ralitza; Rosenheck, Robert; Lin, Haiqun

2011-01-01

Summary The ‘Clinical antipsychotic trials in intervention effectiveness’ study, was designed to evaluate whether there were significant differences between several antipsychotic medications in effectiveness, tolerability, cost and quality of life of subjects with schizophrenia. Overall, 74 % of patients discontinued the study medication for various reasons before the end of 18 months in phase I of the study. When such a large percentage of study participants fail to complete the study schedule, it is not clear whether the apparent profile in effectiveness reflects genuine changes over time or is influenced by selection bias, with participants with worse (or better) outcome values being more likely to drop out or to discontinue. To assess the effect of dropouts for different reasons on inferences, we construct a joint model for the longitudinal outcome and cause-specific dropouts that allows for interval-censored dropout times. Incorporating the information regarding the cause of dropout improves inferences and provides better understanding of the association between cause-specific dropout and the outcome process. We use simulations to demonstrate the advantages of the joint modelling approach in terms of bias and efficiency. PMID:22468033

Joint mobilization acutely improves landing kinematics in chronic ankle instability.

PubMed

Delahunt, Eamonn; Cusack, Kim; Wilson, Laura; Doherty, Cailbhe

2013-03-01

The objective of this study is to examine the acute effect of ankle joint mobilizations akin to those performed in everyday clinical practice on sagittal plane ankle joint kinematics during a single-leg drop landing in participants with chronic ankle instability (CAI). Fifteen participants with self-reported CAI (defined as <24 on the Cumberland Ankle Instability Tool) performed three single-leg drop landings under two different conditions: 1) premobilization and, 2) immediately, postmobilization. The mobilizations performed included Mulligan talocrural joint dorsiflexion mobilization with movement, Mulligan inferior tibiofibular joint mobilization, and Maitland anteroposterior talocrural joint mobilization. Three CODA cx1 units (Charnwood Dynamics Ltd., Leicestershire, UK) were used to provide information on ankle joint sagittal plane angular displacement. The dependent variable under investigation was the angle of ankle joint plantarflexion at the point of initial contact during the drop landing. There was a statistically significant acute decrease in the angle of ankle joint plantarflexion from premobilization (34.89° ± 4.18°) to postmobilization (31.90° ± 5.89°), t(14) = 2.62, P < 0.05 (two-tailed). The mean decrease in the angle of ankle joint plantarflexion as a result of the ankle joint mobilization was 2.98° with a 95% confidence interval ranging from 0.54 to 5.43. The eta squared statistic (0.32) indicated a large effect size. These results indicate that mobilization acted to acutely reduce the angle of ankle joint plantarflexion at initial contact during a single-leg drop landing. Mobilization applied to participants with CAI has a mechanical effect on the ankle joint, thus facilitating a more favorable positioning of the ankle joint when landing from a jump.

R package to estimate intracluster correlation coefficient with confidence interval for binary data.

PubMed

Chakraborty, Hrishikesh; Hossain, Akhtar

2018-03-01

The Intracluster Correlation Coefficient (ICC) is a major parameter of interest in cluster randomized trials that measures the degree to which responses within the same cluster are correlated. There are several types of ICC estimators and its confidence intervals (CI) suggested in the literature for binary data. Studies have compared relative weaknesses and advantages of ICC estimators as well as its CI for binary data and suggested situations where one is advantageous in practical research. The commonly used statistical computing systems currently facilitate estimation of only a very few variants of ICC and its CI. To address the limitations of current statistical packages, we developed an R package, ICCbin, to facilitate estimating ICC and its CI for binary responses using different methods. The ICCbin package is designed to provide estimates of ICC in 16 different ways including analysis of variance methods, moments based estimation, direct probabilistic methods, correlation based estimation, and resampling method. CI of ICC is estimated using 5 different methods. It also generates cluster binary data using exchangeable correlation structure. ICCbin package provides two functions for users. The function rcbin() generates cluster binary data and the function iccbin() estimates ICC and it's CI. The users can choose appropriate ICC and its CI estimate from the wide selection of estimates from the outputs. The R package ICCbin presents very flexible and easy to use ways to generate cluster binary data and to estimate ICC and it's CI for binary response using different methods. The package ICCbin is freely available for use with R from the CRAN repository (https://cran.r-project.org/package=ICCbin). We believe that this package can be a very useful tool for researchers to design cluster randomized trials with binary outcome. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Confidence Intervals for Squared Semipartial Correlation Coefficients: The Effect of Nonnormality

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Algina, James; Keselman, H. J.; Penfield, Randall D.

2010-01-01

The increase in the squared multiple correlation coefficient ([delta]R[superscript 2]) associated with a variable in a regression equation is a commonly used measure of importance in regression analysis. Algina, Keselman, and Penfield found that intervals based on asymptotic principles were typically very inaccurate, even though the sample size…

The effect of covariate mean differences on the standard error and confidence interval for the comparison of treatment means.

PubMed

Liu, Xiaofeng Steven

2011-05-01

The use of covariates is commonly believed to reduce the unexplained error variance and the standard error for the comparison of treatment means, but the reduction in the standard error is neither guaranteed nor uniform over different sample sizes. The covariate mean differences between the treatment conditions can inflate the standard error of the covariate-adjusted mean difference and can actually produce a larger standard error for the adjusted mean difference than that for the unadjusted mean difference. When the covariate observations are conceived of as randomly varying from one study to another, the covariate mean differences can be related to a Hotelling's T(2) . Using this Hotelling's T(2) statistic, one can always find a minimum sample size to achieve a high probability of reducing the standard error and confidence interval width for the adjusted mean difference. ©2010 The British Psychological Society.

Iron Metabolism Genes, Low-Level Lead Exposure, and QT Interval

PubMed Central

Park, Sung Kyun; Hu, Howard; Wright, Robert O.; Schwartz, Joel; Cheng, Yawen; Sparrow, David; Vokonas, Pantel S.; Weisskopf, Marc G.

2009-01-01

Background Cumulative exposure to lead has been shown to be associated with depression of electrocardiographic conduction, such as QT interval (time from start of the Q wave to end of the T wave). Because iron can enhance the oxidative effects of lead, we examined whether polymorphisms in iron metabolism genes [hemochromatosis (HFE), transferrin (TF) C2, and heme oxygenase-1 (HMOX-1)] increase susceptibility to the effects of lead on QT interval in 613 community-dwelling older men. Methods We used standard 12-lead electrocardiograms, K-shell X-ray fluorescence, and graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry to measure QT interval, bone lead, and blood lead levels, respectively. Results A one-interquartile-range increase in tibia lead level (13 μg/g) was associated with a 11.35-msec [95% confidence interval (CI), 4.05–18.65 msec] and a 6.81-msec (95% CI, 1.67–11.95 msec) increase in the heart-rate–corrected QT interval among persons carrying long HMOX-1 alleles and at least one copy of an HFE variant, respectively, but had no effect in persons with short and middle HMOX-1 alleles and the wild-type HFE genotype. The lengthening of the heart-rate–corrected QT interval with higher tibia lead and blood lead became more pronounced as the total number (0 vs. 1 vs. ≥2) of gene variants increased (tibia, p-trend = 0.01; blood, p-trend = 0.04). This synergy seems to be driven by a joint effect between HFE variant and HMOX-1 L alleles. Conclusion We found evidence that gene variants related to iron metabolism increase the impacts of low-level lead exposure on the prolonged QT interval. This is the first such report, so these results should be interpreted cautiously and need to be independently verified. PMID:19165391

Is Asymptomatic Bacteriuria a Risk Factor for Prosthetic Joint Infection?

PubMed Central

Sousa, Ricardo; Muñoz-Mahamud, Ernesto; Quayle, Jonathan; Dias da Costa, Luis; Casals, Cristina; Scott, Phylip; Leite, Pedro; Vilanova, Paz; Garcia, Sebastian; Ramos, Maria Helena; Dias, Joana; Soriano, Alex; Guyot, Andrea

2014-01-01

Background. Infection is a major complication after total joint arthroplasty. The urinary tract is a possible source of surgical site contamination, but the role of asymptomatic bacteriuria (ASB) before elective surgery and the subsequent risk of infection is poorly understood. Methods. Candidates for total hip or total knee arthroplasty were reviewed in a multicenter cohort study. A urine sample was cultured in all patients, and those with ASB were identified. Preoperative antibiotic treatment was decided on an individual basis, and it was not mandatory or randomized. The primary outcome was prosthetic joint infection (PJI) in the first postoperative year. Results. A total of 2497 patients were enrolled. The prevalence of ASB was 12.1% (303 of 2497), 16.3% in women and 5.0% in men (odds ratio, 3.67; 95% confidence interval, 2.65–5.09; P < .001). The overall PJI rate was 1.7%. The infection rate was significantly higher in the ASB group than in the non-ASB group (4.3% vs 1.4%; odds ratio, 3.23; 95% confidence interval, 1.67–6.27; P = .001). In the ASB group, there was no significant difference in PJI rate between treated (3.9%) and untreated (4.7%) patients. The ASB group had a significantly higher proportion of PJI due to gram-negative microorganisms than the non-ASB group, but these did not correlate to isolates from urine cultures. Conclusions. ASB was an independent risk factor for PJI, particularly that due to gram-negative microorganisms. Preoperative antibiotic treatment did not show any benefit and cannot be recommended. PMID:24723280

Annoyance from transportation noise: relationships with exposure metrics DNL and DENL and their confidence intervals.

PubMed Central

Miedema, H M; Oudshoorn, C G

2001-01-01

We present a model of the distribution of noise annoyance with the mean varying as a function of the noise exposure. Day-night level (DNL) and day-evening-night level (DENL) were used as noise descriptors. Because the entire annoyance distribution has been modeled, any annoyance measure that summarizes this distribution can be calculated from the model. We fitted the model to data from noise annoyance studies for aircraft, road traffic, and railways separately. Polynomial approximations of relationships implied by the model for the combinations of the following exposure and annoyance measures are presented: DNL or DENL, and percentage "highly annoyed" (cutoff at 72 on a scale of 0-100), percentage "annoyed" (cutoff at 50 on a scale of 0-100), or percentage (at least) "a little annoyed" (cutoff at 28 on a scale of 0-100). These approximations are very good, and they are easier to use for practical calculations than the model itself, because the model involves a normal distribution. Our results are based on the same data set that was used earlier to establish relationships between DNL and percentage highly annoyed. In this paper we provide better estimates of the confidence intervals due to the improved model of the relationship between annoyance and noise exposure. Moreover, relationships using descriptors other than DNL and percentage highly annoyed, which are presented here, have not been established earlier on the basis of a large dataset. PMID:11335190

Factorial-based response-surface modeling with confidence intervals for optimizing thermal-optical transmission analysis of atmospheric black carbon.

PubMed

Conny, J M; Norris, G A; Gould, T R

2009-03-09

Thermal-optical transmission (TOT) analysis measures black carbon (BC) in atmospheric aerosol on a fibrous filter. The method pyrolyzes organic carbon (OC) and employs laser light absorption to distinguish BC from the pyrolyzed OC; however, the instrument does not necessarily separate the two physically. In addition, a comprehensive temperature protocol for the analysis based on the Beer-Lambert Law remains elusive. Here, empirical response-surface modeling was used to show how the temperature protocol in TOT analysis can be modified to distinguish pyrolyzed OC from BC based on the Beer-Lambert Law. We determined the apparent specific absorption cross sections for pyrolyzed OC (sigma(Char)) and BC (sigma(BC)), which accounted for individual absorption enhancement effects within the filter. Response-surface models of these cross sections were derived from a three-factor central-composite factorial experimental design: temperature and duration of the high-temperature step in the helium phase, and the heating increase in the helium-oxygen phase. The response surface for sigma(BC), which varied with instrument conditions, revealed a ridge indicating the correct conditions for OC pyrolysis in helium. The intersection of the sigma(BC) and sigma(Char) surfaces indicated the conditions where the cross sections were equivalent, satisfying an important assumption upon which the method relies. 95% confidence interval surfaces defined a confidence region for a range of pyrolysis conditions. Analyses of wintertime samples from Seattle, WA revealed a temperature between 830 degrees C and 850 degrees C as most suitable for the helium high-temperature step lasting 150s. However, a temperature as low as 750 degrees C could not be rejected statistically.

The influence of continuous versus interval walking exercise on knee joint loading and pain in patients with knee osteoarthritis.

PubMed

Farrokhi, Shawn; Jayabalan, Prakash; Gustafson, Jonathan A; Klatt, Brian A; Sowa, Gwendolyn A; Piva, Sara R

2017-07-01

To evaluate whether knee contact force and knee pain are different between continuous and interval walking exercise in patients with knee osteoarthritis (OA). Twenty seven patients with unilateral symptomatic knee OA completed two separate walking exercise sessions on a treadmill at 1.3m/s on two different days: 1) a continuous 45min walking exercise session, and 2) three 15min bouts of walking exercise separated by 1h rest periods for a total of 45min of exercise in an interval format. Estimated knee contact forces using the OpenSim software and knee pain were evaluated at baseline (1st minute of walking) and after every 15min between the continuous and interval walking conditions. A significant increase from baseline was observed in peak knee contact force during the weight-acceptance phase of gait after 30 and 45min of walking, irrespective of the walking exercise condition. Additionally, whereas continuous walking resulted in an increase in knee pain, interval walking did not lead to increased knee pain. Walking exercise durations of 30min or greater may lead to undesirable knee joint loading in patients with knee OA, while performing the same volume of exercise in multiple bouts as opposed to one continuous bout may be beneficial for limiting knee pain. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Cryotherapy on postoperative rehabilitation of joint arthroplasty.

PubMed

Ni, Sheng-Hui; Jiang, Wen-Tong; Guo, Lei; Jin, Yu-Heng; Jiang, Tian-Long; Zhao, Yuyan; Zhao, Jie

2015-11-01

The effectiveness of cryotherapy on joint arthroplasty recovery remains controversial. This systematic review was conducted to assess the effectiveness of cryotherapy in patients after joint arthroplasty. Comprehensive literature searches of several databases including Cochrane Library (2013), MEDLINE (1950-2013), and Embase (1980-2013) were performed. We sought randomised controlled trials that compared the experimental group received any form of cryotherapy with any control group after joint arthroplasty. The main outcomes were postoperative blood loss, adverse events, and pain. Analyses were performed with Revman 5.0. Results were shown as mean differences (MD) and standard deviations or as risk difference and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs). Ten trials comprised 660 total knee arthroplastys and three trials comprised 122 total hip arthroplastys (THAs) met the inclusion criteria. Blood loss was significantly decreased by cryotherapy (MD = -109.68; 95 % CI -210.92 to -8.44; P = 0.03). Cryotherapy did not increase the risk of adverse effect (n.s.). Cryotherapy decreased pain at the second day of postoperative (MD = -1.32; 95 % CI -2.37 to -0.27; P = 0.0003), but did not decreased pain at the first and third day of postoperative (n.s.). Cryotherapy appears effective in these selected patients after joint arthroplasty. The benefits of cryotherapy on blood loss after joint arthroplasty were obvious. However, the subgroup analysis indicated that cryotherapy did not decreased blood loss after THA. Cryotherapy did not increase the risk of adverse effect. Cryotherapy decreased pain at the second day of postoperative, but did not decreased pain at the first and third day of postoperative. II.

Cooperative Monitoring Center Occasional Paper/18: Maritime Cooperation Between India and Pakistan: Building Confidence at Sea

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

SIDDIQA-AGHA,AYESHA

2000-11-01

This paper discusses ways in which the navies of both India and Pakistan can cooperate on issues of maritime and naval significance. Although the militaries and navies of the two countries have traditionally seen each other as rivals, international economic developments make cooperation imperative. South Asia requires an approach that can alter the existing hostile images and perceptions. This can be achieved through developing an incremental approach towards confidence building that would allow consistency and help build confidence gradually. The aim is to make confidence building a sustainable activity that would help transform hostile images and build cooperative and nonhostilemore » relationships. This paper proposes a five-step model to suggest what the two navies can do jointly to build confidence, with the ultimate goal of naval arms control. The steps include (1) the Signaling Stage to initiate communication between the two navies, (2) the Warming-Up Stage to build confidence through nonmilitary joint ventures, (3) the Handshake Stage to build confidence between the two navies through military joint ventures, (4) the Problem-Solving Stage to resolve outstanding disputes, and (5) the Final Nod Stage to initiate naval arms control. This model would employ communication, navigation, and remote sensing technologies to achieve success.« less

Confidence bounds for normal and lognormal distribution coefficients of variation

Treesearch

Steve Verrill

2003-01-01

This paper compares the so-called exact approach for obtaining confidence intervals on normal distribution coefficients of variation to approximate methods. Approximate approaches were found to perform less well than the exact approach for large coefficients of variation and small sample sizes. Web-based computer programs are described for calculating confidence...

Revision for prosthetic joint infection following hip arthroplasty: Evidence from the National Joint Registry.

PubMed

Lenguerrand, E; Whitehouse, M R; Beswick, A D; Jones, S A; Porter, M L; Blom, A W

2017-06-01

We used the National Joint Registry for England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Isle of Man (NJR) to investigate the risk of revision due to prosthetic joint infection (PJI) for patients undergoing primary and revision hip arthroplasty, the changes in risk over time, and the overall burden created by PJI. We analysed revision total hip arthroplasties (THAs) performed due to a diagnosis of PJI and the linked index procedures recorded in the NJR between 2003 and 2014. The cohort analysed consisted of 623 253 index primary hip arthroplasties, 63 222 index revision hip arthroplasties and 7585 revision THAs performed due to a diagnosis of PJI. The prevalence, cumulative incidence functions and the burden of PJI (total procedures) were calculated. Overall linear trends were investigated with log-linear regression. We demonstrated a prevalence of revision THA due to prosthetic joint infection of 0.4/100 procedures following primary and 1.6/100 procedures following revision hip arthroplasty. The prevalence of revision due to PJI in the three months following primary hip arthroplasty has risen 2.3-fold (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.3 to 4.1) between 2005 and 2013, and 3.0-fold (95% CI 1.1 to 8.5) following revision hip arthroplasty. Over 1000 procedures are performed annually as a consequence of hip PJI, an increase of 2.6-fold between 2005 and 2013. Although the risk of revision due to PJI following hip arthroplasty is low, it is rising and, coupled with the established and further predicted increased incidence of both primary and revision hip arthroplasty, this represents a growing and substantial treatment burden. Cite this article : E. Lenguerrand, M. R. Whitehouse, A. D. Beswick, S. A. Jones, M. L. Porter, A. W. Blom. Revision for prosthetic joint infection following hip arthroplasty: Evidence from the National Joint Registry. Bone Joint Res 2017;6:391-398. DOI: 10.1302/2046-3758.66.BJR-2017-0003.R1. © 2017 Lenguerrand et al.

Incidence of Infection and Inhospital Mortality in Patients With Chronic Renal Failure After Total Joint Arthroplasty.

PubMed

Erkocak, Omer F; Yoo, Joanne Y; Restrepo, Camilo; Maltenfort, Mitchell G; Parvizi, Javad

2016-11-01

Patients with chronic renal failure (CRF) may require total joint arthroplasty (TJA) to treat degenerative joint disease, fractures, osteonecrosis, or amyloid arthropathy. There have been conflicting results, however, regarding outcomes of TJA in patients with chronic renal disease. The aim of this case-controlled study was to determine the outcome of TJA in patients with CRF, with particular interest in the incidence of infections and inhospital mortality. We queried our electronic database to determine which patients among the 29,389 TJAs performed at our institution between January 2000 and June 2012 had a diagnosis of CRF. A total of 359 CRF patients were identified and matched for procedure, gender, age (±4 years), date of surgery (±2 years), and body mass index (±5 kg/m 2 ) in a 2:1 ratio to 718 control patients. The incidence of infection and inhospital mortality was not significantly different between the nondialysis CRF patients and controls, whereas it was significantly higher in dialysis-dependent end-stage renal failure patients compared to controls. Of the 50 CRF patients receiving hemodialysis, 10 (20%) developed surgical site infection, of which 4 (8%) were periprosthetic joint infection, and 4 (8%) died during hospital stay. The odds ratio for infection in the dialysis group was 7.54 (95% confidence interval: 2.83-20.12) and 10.46 (95% confidence interval: 1.67-65.34) for the inhospital mortality. We conclude that end-stage renal failure patients receiving hemodialysis have higher postoperative infection and inhospital mortality rates after an elective TJA procedure, whereas nondialysis CRF patients have similar outcomes compared with the general TJA population. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

New Approaches to Robust Confidence Intervals for Location: A Simulation Study.

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-06-01

obtain a denominator for the test statistic. Those statistics based on location estimates derived from Hampel’s redescending influence function or v...defined an influence function for a test in terms of the behavior of its P-values when the data are sampled from a model distribution modified by point...proposal could be used for interval estimation as well as hypothesis testing, the extension is immediate. Once an influence function has been defined

In vivo axial humero-ulnar rotation in normal and dysplastic canine elbow joints.

PubMed

Rohwedder, Thomas; Fischer, Martin; Böttcher, Peter

2018-04-01

To prospectively compare relative axial (internal-external) humero-ulnar rotation in normal and dysplastic canine elbow joints. Six normal elbows (five dogs) and seven joints (six dogs) with coronoid disease were examined. After implantation of 0.8 mm tantalum beads into humerus and ulna, biplanar x-ray movies of the implanted elbows were taken while dogs were walking on a treadmill. Based on the 2D bead coordinates of the synchronized x-ray movies virtual 3D humero-ulnar animations were calculated. Based on these, relative internal-external humero-ulnar rotation was measured over the first third of stance phase and expressed as maximal rotational amplitude. Amplitudes from three consecutive steps were averaged and groupwise compared using an unpaired t-test. In normal elbow joints mean axial relative humero-ulnar rotation was 2.9° (SD 1.1). Dysplastic joints showed a significantly greater rotational amplitude (5.3°, SD 2.0; p = 0.0229, 95% confidence interval 0.4-4.4). Dysplastic elbow joints show greater relative internal-external humero-ulnar rotation compared to normal elbows, which might reflect rotational joint instability. Increased relative internal-external humero-ulnar rotation might alter physiological joint contact and pressure patterns. Future studies are needed to verify if this plays a role in the pathogenesis of medial coronoid disease. Schattauer GmbH.

Concept analysis: confidence/self-confidence.

PubMed

Perry, Patricia

2011-01-01

Confidence and self-confidence are crucial practice elements in nursing education and practice. Nurse educators should have an understanding of the concept of confidence in order to assist in the accomplishment of nursing students and their learning of technical and nontechnical skills. With the aim of facilitating trusted care of patients in the healthcare setting, nursing professionals must exhibit confidence, and, as such, clarification and analysis of its meaning is necessary. The purpose of this analysis is to provide clarity to the meaning of the concept confidence/self-confidence, while gaining a more comprehensive understanding of its attributes, antecedents, and consequences. Walker and Avant's eight-step method of concept analysis was utilized for the framework of the analysis process with model, contrary, borderline, and related cases presented along with attributes, antecedents, consequences, and empirical referents identified. Understanding both the individualized development of confidence among prelicensure nursing students and the role of the nurse educator in the development of confident nursing practice, nurse educators can assist students in the development of confidence and competency. Future research surrounding the nature and development of confidence/self-confidence in the prelicensure nursing student experiencing human patient simulation sessions would assist to help educators further promote the development of confidence. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Confidence limit calculation for antidotal potency ratio derived from lethal dose 50

PubMed Central

Manage, Ananda; Petrikovics, Ilona

2013-01-01

AIM: To describe confidence interval calculation for antidotal potency ratios using bootstrap method. METHODS: We can easily adapt the nonparametric bootstrap method which was invented by Efron to construct confidence intervals in such situations like this. The bootstrap method is a resampling method in which the bootstrap samples are obtained by resampling from the original sample. RESULTS: The described confidence interval calculation using bootstrap method does not require the sampling distribution antidotal potency ratio. This can serve as a substantial help for toxicologists, who are directed to employ the Dixon up-and-down method with the application of lower number of animals to determine lethal dose 50 values for characterizing the investigated toxic molecules and eventually for characterizing the antidotal protections by the test antidotal systems. CONCLUSION: The described method can serve as a useful tool in various other applications. Simplicity of the method makes it easier to do the calculation using most of the programming software packages. PMID:25237618

PRA in Design: Increasing Confidence in Pre-Operational Assessments of Risks (Results of a Joint NASA/NRC Workshop)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Youngblood, Robert; Dezfuli, Homayoon; Siu, Nathan

2010-01-01

In late 2009, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) jointly organized a workshop to discuss technical issues associated with application of risk assessments to early phases of system design. The workshop, which was coordinated by the Idaho National Laboratory, involved invited presentations from a number of PRA experts in the aerospace and nuclear fields and subsequent discussion to address the following questions: (a) What technical issues limit decision-makers' confidence in PRA results, especially at a pre-operational phase of the system life cycle? (b) What is being done to address these issues'? (c) What more can be done ? The workshop resulted in participant observations and suggestions on several technical issues, including the pursuit of non-traditional approaches to risk assessment and the verification and validation of risk models. The workshop participants also identified several important non-technical issues, including risk communication with decision makers, and the integration of PRA into the overall design process.

Construction of joint confidence regions for the optimal true class fractions of Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) surfaces and manifolds.

PubMed

Bantis, Leonidas E; Nakas, Christos T; Reiser, Benjamin; Myall, Daniel; Dalrymple-Alford, John C

2017-06-01

The three-class approach is used for progressive disorders when clinicians and researchers want to diagnose or classify subjects as members of one of three ordered categories based on a continuous diagnostic marker. The decision thresholds or optimal cut-off points required for this classification are often chosen to maximize the generalized Youden index (Nakas et al., Stat Med 2013; 32: 995-1003). The effectiveness of these chosen cut-off points can be evaluated by estimating their corresponding true class fractions and their associated confidence regions. Recently, in the two-class case, parametric and non-parametric methods were investigated for the construction of confidence regions for the pair of the Youden-index-based optimal sensitivity and specificity fractions that can take into account the correlation introduced between sensitivity and specificity when the optimal cut-off point is estimated from the data (Bantis et al., Biomet 2014; 70: 212-223). A parametric approach based on the Box-Cox transformation to normality often works well while for markers having more complex distributions a non-parametric procedure using logspline density estimation can be used instead. The true class fractions that correspond to the optimal cut-off points estimated by the generalized Youden index are correlated similarly to the two-class case. In this article, we generalize these methods to the three- and to the general k-class case which involves the classification of subjects into three or more ordered categories, where ROC surface or ROC manifold methodology, respectively, is typically employed for the evaluation of the discriminatory capacity of a diagnostic marker. We obtain three- and multi-dimensional joint confidence regions for the optimal true class fractions. We illustrate this with an application to the Trail Making Test Part A that has been used to characterize cognitive impairment in patients with Parkinson's disease.

Is There an Association Between Smoking Status and Prosthetic Joint Infection After Primary Total Joint Arthroplasty?

PubMed

Gonzalez, Amanda I; Luime, Jolanda J; Uçkay, Ilker; Hannouche, Didier; Hoffmeyer, Pierre; Lübbeke, Anne

2018-02-23

Recent reports highlighted the association between smoking and higher risk of postsurgical infections. The aim was to compare the incidence of prosthetic joint infection after primary total joint arthroplasty (TJA) according to smoking status. A prospective hospital registry-based cohort study was performed including all primary knee and hip TJAs performed between March 1996 and December 2013. Smoking status preoperatively was classified into never, former, and current smoker. Incidence rates and hazard ratios (HRs) for prosthetic joint infection according to smoking status were assessed within the first year and beyond. We included 8559 primary TJAs (mean age 69.5 years), and median follow-up was 67 months. There were 5722 never, 1315 former, and 1522 current smokers. Incidence rates of infection within the first year for never, former, and current smokers were, respectively, 4.7, 10.1, and 10.9 cases/1000 person-years, comparing ever vs never smokers, crude and adjusted HRs were 2.35 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.39-3.98) and 1.8 (95% CI 1.04-3.2). Beyond the first year, crude and adjusted HRs were 1.37 (95% CI 0.78-2.39) and 1.12 (95% CI 0.61-2.04). Smoking increased the infection risk about 1.8 times after primary hip or knee TJA in both current and former smokers. Beyond the first year, the infection risk was similar to never smokers. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Joint Effect of Carotid Plaque and C-Reactive Protein on First-Ever Ischemic Stroke and Myocardial Infarction?

PubMed

Eltoft, Agnethe; Arntzen, Kjell Arne; Wilsgaard, Tom; Hansen, John-Bjarne; Mathiesen, Ellisiv B; Johnsen, Stein Harald

2018-05-17

The joint effect of atherosclerosis and CRP (C-reactive protein) on risk of ischemic stroke (IS) and myocardial infarction (MI) has been sparsely studied. The aim of this study was to explore whether CRP mediates the risk of events in subjects with prevalent carotid plaque, examine synergism, and test whether CRP and carotid plaque add to risk prediction beyond traditional risk factors. CRP and carotid total plaque area (TPA) were measured in 10 109 participants in the Tromsø Study from 1994 to 2008. Incident IS (n=671) and MI (n=1079) were registered until December 31, 2013. We calculated hazard ratios (HRs) of MI and IS according to categories of CRP (<1, 1-3, and >3 mg/L) and plaque status (no plaque and TPA below and above median) in Cox proportional hazard models with time-varying covariates. Multivariable-adjusted CRP >3 versus <1 mg/L was associated with risk of IS (HR, 1.84; 95% confidence interval, 1.49-2.26) and MI (HR, 1.46; 95% confidence interval, 1.23-1.73). TPA above median versus no plaque was associated with risk for IS (HR, 1.65; 95% confidence interval, 1.36-2.01) and MI (HR, 1.64; 95% confidence interval, 1.41-1.92). In participants with plaque, adjustment for CRP minimally attenuated the risk estimates. The highest incidence rates for MI and IS were seen in the group with both CRP >3 mg/L and TPA is above the median. TPA and CRP combined added to risk prediction beyond traditional risk factors. The simultaneous presence of subclinical atherosclerosis and elevated CRP was associated with increased risk of IS and MI. The combined assessment of subclinical atherosclerosis and inflammatory biomarkers may improve cardiovascular disease risk stratification. © 2018 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

An alternative approach to confidence interval estimation for the win ratio statistic.

PubMed

Luo, Xiaodong; Tian, Hong; Mohanty, Surya; Tsai, Wei Yann

2015-03-01

Pocock et al. (2012, European Heart Journal 33, 176-182) proposed a win ratio approach to analyzing composite endpoints comprised of outcomes with different clinical priorities. In this article, we establish a statistical framework for this approach. We derive the null hypothesis and propose a closed-form variance estimator for the win ratio statistic in all pairwise matching situation. Our simulation study shows that the proposed variance estimator performs well regardless of the magnitude of treatment effect size and the type of the joint distribution of the outcomes. © 2014, The International Biometric Society.

Long-Acting Opioid Use Independently Predicts Perioperative Complication in Total Joint Arthroplasty.

PubMed

Sing, David C; Barry, Jeffrey J; Cheah, Jonathan W; Vail, Thomas P; Hansen, Erik N

2016-09-01

Opioid therapy is an increasingly used modality for treatment of musculoskeletal pain despite multiple associated risks. The purpose of this study was to evaluate how preoperative opioid use affects early outcomes after total joint arthroplasty. A total of 174 patients undergoing total joint arthroplasty were matched by age, gender, and procedure into 3 groups stratified by preoperative opioid use (nonuser, short acting [eg, Vicodin], long acting [eg, Oxycontin]). Compared to nonusers, preoperative long-acting use was associated with increased postoperative mean opioid consumption (46 mg vs 366 mg mean morphine equivalents, P < .001) and independently predicted complications within 90 days (odds ratio: 6.15, confidence interval: [1.46, 25.95], P = .013). Preoperative opioid use should be disclosed as a risk factor for complication to patients and taken into consideration by physicians before initiating opioid management. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Clinical characteristics, microbiology, and outcomes of prosthetic joint infection in Taiwan.

PubMed

Tsai, Jen-Chih; Sheng, Wang-Huei; Lo, Wan-Yu; Jiang, Ching-Chuan; Chang, Shan-Chwen

2015-04-01

Prosthetic joint infection (PJI) after total knee or hip replacement is a devastating complication associated with substantial morbidity and economic cost. The incidence of prosthetic joint infection is increasing as the use of mechanical joint replacement increases. The treatment approach to prosthetic joint infection is based on different clinical situations such as a patient's comorbidities, epidemic microbiology data, and surgical procedures. The aim of our study was to understand clinical characteristics of prosthetic joint infection, the microbiology of the prosthetic joint infection, and the outcomes of different treatment strategies during 2006-2011. We retrospectively collected cases of prosthetic joint infection in the National Taiwan University Hospital between January 1, 2006 and December 31, 2011. The patients' characteristics, microbiology, outcomes, and factors associated with treatment success were recorded. One hundred and forty-four patients were identified as having PJI. Of these, 92 patients were entered into per-protocol analysis. Staphylococcus aureus was the most common causative organism (29.9%), followed by coagulase-negative Staphylococci (16.7%), and Enterococci (9.7%). The overall treatment success rate was 50%. Patients who received a two-stage revision had a better outcome, compared to patients who underwent other types of surgeries (70% vs. 32.7%, respectively; p < 0.001). In multivariate analysis, the two-stage revision was significantly associated with treatment success (odds ratio = 3.923, 95% confidence interval = 1.53-10.04). Our study demonstrates that Staphylococcus aureus was the most common causative organisms in PJI. Performing two-stage revisions was significantly associated with a better outcome. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Discrete and continuous joint coupling relationships in uninjured recreational runners.

PubMed

Dierks, Tracy A; Davis, Irene

2007-06-01

Abnormal joint coupling is thought to be related to overuse injuries in runners. However, researchers do not yet know what constitutes normal joint coupling during running, which makes abnormal coupling difficult to define. Lower extremity kinematics were collected from 40 recreational runners during stance. Joint coupling methods were applied and, for each method, means and both within- and between-subject variability were calculated. The 95% confidence interval was used to compare differences across coupling relationships and periods of stance. Timing between rearfoot eversion, tibial internal rotation, and knee flexion were relatively synchronous while relationships involving knee internal rotation were more asynchronous. The excursion ratios showed that every 2 degrees of rearfoot eversion was coupled with 1 degrees of both tibial internal rotation and knee internal rotation. Vector coding results showed that just beyond maximum loading, all joint coupling relationships resulted in relatively equal amounts of motion, while the within-subject variability was similar throughout stance. The continuous relative phase results showed that the most out-of-phase coupling occurred in the periods around heel-strike and toe-off while the most in-phase coupling occurred in the period just beyond maximum loading of the leg. The continuous relative phase within-subject variability was greatest at the periods around heel-strike and toe-off and smallest just beyond maximum loading. With a better understanding of joint coupling in uninjured runners, these data will help to serve as a reference for future studies investigating the relationship between running injuries and abnormal joint coupling.

The connection between strong social support and joint replacement outcomes.

PubMed

Theiss, Mark M; Ellison, Michael W; Tea, Christine G; Warner, Julia F; Silver, Renee M; Murphy, Valerie J

2011-05-18

A myriad of emotional, informational, and tangible needs can easily overwhelm patients as they seek to navigate a complicated surgical procedure. This article demonstrates that a dedicated family member or friend supporting their loved one before, during, and after joint replacement surgery measurably impacts quality and outcomes. The multidisciplinary, multihospital study team developed the following Opportunity Statement: "To define, measure, and implement a progressive family/friend support system across the continuum of care promoting optimal patient recovery after total joint arthroplasty." The team used the modified Groningen Orthopedic Social Support Scale to measure levels of social support and associated these levels with other patient outcomes.Analysis of 1722 observations across 4 hospitals found that patients with strong social support have shorter hospital stays, are more likely to be discharged home, to meet ambulation and transfer-out-of-bed targets, and to score hospital quality of care higher, and are more confident and ready to go home on discharge. Three presence intervals were also found to be significant predictors of key outcome measures: family/friend presence during the preoperative classes, in the preoperative holding area, and during the last physical therapy session. These intervals may serve as reasonable social support proxies for organizations desiring to measure social support to ultimately affect quality and outcomes. Copyright 2011, SLACK Incorporated.

Common pitfalls in statistical analysis: “P” values, statistical significance and confidence intervals

PubMed Central

Ranganathan, Priya; Pramesh, C. S.; Buyse, Marc

2015-01-01

In the second part of a series on pitfalls in statistical analysis, we look at various ways in which a statistically significant study result can be expressed. We debunk some of the myths regarding the ‘P’ value, explain the importance of ‘confidence intervals’ and clarify the importance of including both values in a paper PMID:25878958

Joint hyperlaxity prevents relapses in clubfeet treated by Ponseti method-preliminary results.

PubMed

Cosma, Dan Ionuţ; Corbu, Andrei; Nistor, Dan Viorel; Todor, Adrian; Valeanu, Madalina; Morcuende, Jose; Man, Sorin

2018-05-07

The aim of the study was to evaluate the role of joint hyperlaxity (by Beighton score) as a protective factor for clubfoot relapse. Patients with idiopathic clubfoot treated with the Ponseti method between January 2004 and December 2012, without other congenital foot deformity, and not previously treated by open surgery were included in either the Relapse group (n = 23) if it was a clubfoot relapse or the Control group (n = 19) if no relapse was noted. Joint laxity was evaluated using the Beighton score at the latest follow-up against the Normal group (n = 22, children matched by sex and age without clubfoot deformity). We found a significantly higher joint laxity in the Control group (4.58, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.1-7.06) as compared to the Relapse (3.17, 95% CI: 1.53-4.81, p = 0.032) and Normal (3.14, 95% CI: 1.78-4.5, p = 0.03) groups. The univariate logistic regression showed a 5.28-times increase in the risk of relapse for a Beighton score lower than 4/9 points (odds ratio = 5.28; 95% CI = 1.29-21.5; p = 0.018). Joint hyperlaxity could be a protective factor for clubfoot relapse.

[Range of Hip Joint Motion and Weight of Lower Limb Function under 3D Dynamic Marker].

PubMed

Xia, Q; Zhang, M; Gao, D; Xia, W T

2017-12-01

To explore the range of reasonable weight coefficient of hip joint in lower limb function. When the hip joints of healthy volunteers under normal conditions or fixed at three different positions including functional, flexed and extension positions, the movements of lower limbs were recorded by LUKOtronic motion capture and analysis system. The degree of lower limb function loss was calculated using Fugl-Meyer lower limb function assessment form when the hip joints were fixed at the aforementioned positions. One-way analysis of variance and Tamhane's T2 method were used to proceed statistics analysis and calculate the range of reasonable weight coefficient of hip joint. There were significant differences between the degree of lower limb function loss when the hip joints fixed at flexed and extension positions and at functional position. While the differences between the degree of lower limb function loss when the hip joints fixed at flexed position and extension position had no statistical significance. In 95% confidence interval, the reasonable weight coefficient of hip joint in lower limb function was between 61.05% and 73.34%. Expect confirming the reasonable weight coefficient, the effects of functional and non-functional positions on the degree of lower limb function loss should also be considered for the assessment of hip joint function loss. Copyright© by the Editorial Department of Journal of Forensic Medicine

Using Confidence Interval-Based Estimation of Relevance to Select Social-Cognitive Determinants for Behavior Change Interventions.

PubMed

Crutzen, Rik; Peters, Gjalt-Jorn Ygram; Noijen, Judith

2017-01-01

When developing an intervention aimed at behavior change, one of the crucial steps in the development process is to select the most relevant social-cognitive determinants. These determinants can be seen as the buttons one needs to push to establish behavior change. Insight into these determinants is needed to select behavior change methods (i.e., general behavior change techniques that are applied in an intervention) in the development process. Therefore, a study on determinants is often conducted as formative research in the intervention development process. Ideally, all relevant determinants identified in such a study are addressed by an intervention. However, when developing a behavior change intervention, there are limits in terms of, for example, resources available for intervention development and the amount of content that participants of an intervention can be exposed to. Hence, it is important to select those determinants that are most relevant to the target behavior as these determinants should be addressed in an intervention. The aim of the current paper is to introduce a novel approach to select the most relevant social-cognitive determinants and use them in intervention development. This approach is based on visualization of confidence intervals for the means and correlation coefficients for all determinants simultaneously. This visualization facilitates comparison, which is necessary when making selections. By means of a case study on the determinants of using a high dose of 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (commonly known as ecstasy), we illustrate this approach. We provide a freely available tool to facilitate the analyses needed in this approach.

Work-Related Biomechanical Exposure and Job Strain as Separate and Joint Predictors of Musculoskeletal Diseases: A 28-Year Prospective Follow-up Study.

PubMed

Prakash, K C; Neupane, Subas; Leino-Arjas, Päivi; von Bonsdorff, Mikaela B; Rantanen, Taina; von Bonsdorff, Monika E; Seitsamo, Jorma; Ilmarinen, Juhani; Nygård, Clas-Håkan

2017-12-01

We investigated how work-related biomechanical exposure and job strain in midlife separately and jointly predicted back and degenerative musculoskeletal diseases (MSDs). A total of 6,257 employees participated in the Finnish Longitudinal Study on Aging Municipal Employees (FLAME) in 1981 and were followed up for 28 years. Risk ratios and the relative excessive risk due to interaction and 95% confidence intervals were modeled for separate and joint prediction estimates, respectively. After adjustment for confounders, job strain predicted degenerative MSDs among women after 4 and 11 years of follow-up. After 11 years, both exposures predicted both types of MSDs among men. Joint exposure predicted both types of MSDs after 4 years among women (for back MSDs, risk ratio (RR) = 1.58, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.15, 2.18; for degenerative MSDs, RR = 1.59, 95% CI: 1.21, 2.07) and men (for back MSDs, RR = 1.50, 95% CI: 1.05, 2.15; for degenerative MSDs, RR = 1.61, 95% CI: 1.16, 2.22) and both types of MSDs after 11 years (for back MSDs, RR = 1.72, 95% CI: 1.21, 2.43; for degenerative MSDs, RR = 1.68, 95% CI: 1.25, 2.46) among men only, but the relative excessive risk due to interaction was not significant throughout. However, after 28 years, the separate and joint exposures did not predict MSDs. Workplace interventions should be focused on reducing job strain along with biomechanical exposure for possible prevention of MSDs in working life and around the time of retirement, but there may be other pathways of onset of MSDs in old age. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The Effects of Generalized Joint Laxity on Risk of Anterior Cruciate Ligament Injury in Young Female Athletes

PubMed Central

Myer, Gregory D.; Ford, Kevin R.; Paterno, Mark V.; Nick, Todd G.; Hewett, Timothy E.

2012-01-01

Background Women who participate in high-risk sports suffer anterior cruciate ligament injury at a 4- to 6-fold greater rate than men. Purpose To prospectively determine if female athletes with decreased passive knee joint restraint (greater joint laxity) and greater side-to-side differences in knee laxity would be at increased risk of anterior cruciate ligament injury. Study Design Case control study; Level of evidence, 3. Methods From 1558 female soccer and basketball players who were prospectively screened, 19 went on to tear their anterior cruciate ligaments. Four height- and mass-matched control subjects were selected from the uninjured screened athletes for comparison with each of the 19 injured subjects, making a total of 95 subjects (19 injured; 76 uninjured). Generalized joint-laxity tests and anterior-posterior tibiofemoral translation were quantified using the CompuKT knee arthrometer. A multivariable logistic regression model was constructed to determine predictors of anterior cruciate ligament injury status from recorded laxity measures. Results A multivariable logistic regression model (chi-square = 18.6; P = .002) used the independent variables laxity measures of knee hyperextension (P = .02), wrist and thumb to forearm opposition (P = .80), fifth-finger hyperextension >90° (P = .71), side-to-side differences in anterior-posterior tibiofemoral translation (P = .002), and prior knee injury (P = .22) to predict anterior cruciate ligament–injury status. The validated C statistic, or validated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, was 0.72. For every 1.3-mm increase in side-to-side differences in anterior-posterior knee displacement, the odds of anterior cruciate ligament–injured status increased 4-fold (95% confidence interval, 1.68–9.69). A positive measure of knee hyperextension increased the odds of anterior cruciate ligament–injured status 5-fold (95% confidence interval, 1.24–18.44). Conclusion The current results

Overconfidence in Interval Estimates: What Does Expertise Buy You?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McKenzie, Craig R. M.; Liersch, Michael J.; Yaniv, Ilan

2008-01-01

People's 90% subjective confidence intervals typically contain the true value about 50% of the time, indicating extreme overconfidence. Previous results have been mixed regarding whether experts are as overconfident as novices. Experiment 1 examined interval estimates from information technology (IT) professionals and UC San Diego (UCSD) students…

Confidence intervals for effect sizes: compliance and clinical significance in the Journal of Consulting and clinical Psychology.

PubMed

Odgaard, Eric C; Fowler, Robert L

2010-06-01

In 2005, the Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology (JCCP) became the first American Psychological Association (APA) journal to require statistical measures of clinical significance, plus effect sizes (ESs) and associated confidence intervals (CIs), for primary outcomes (La Greca, 2005). As this represents the single largest editorial effort to improve statistical reporting practices in any APA journal in at least a decade, in this article we investigate the efficacy of that change. All intervention studies published in JCCP in 2003, 2004, 2007, and 2008 were reviewed. Each article was coded for method of clinical significance, type of ES, and type of associated CI, broken down by statistical test (F, t, chi-square, r/R(2), and multivariate modeling). By 2008, clinical significance compliance was 75% (up from 31%), with 94% of studies reporting some measure of ES (reporting improved for individual statistical tests ranging from eta(2) = .05 to .17, with reasonable CIs). Reporting of CIs for ESs also improved, although only to 40%. Also, the vast majority of reported CIs used approximations, which become progressively less accurate for smaller sample sizes and larger ESs (cf. Algina & Kessleman, 2003). Changes are near asymptote for ESs and clinical significance, but CIs lag behind. As CIs for ESs are required for primary outcomes, we show how to compute CIs for the vast majority of ESs reported in JCCP, with an example of how to use CIs for ESs as a method to assess clinical significance.

The Interpretation of Scholars' Interpretations of Confidence Intervals: Criticism, Replication, and Extension of Hoekstra et al. (2014)

PubMed Central

García-Pérez, Miguel A.; Alcalá-Quintana, Rocío

2016-01-01

Hoekstra et al. (Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 2014, 21:1157–1164) surveyed the interpretation of confidence intervals (CIs) by first-year students, master students, and researchers with six items expressing misinterpretations of CIs. They asked respondents to answer all items, computed the number of items endorsed, and concluded that misinterpretation of CIs is robust across groups. Their design may have produced this outcome artifactually for reasons that we describe. This paper discusses first the two interpretations of CIs and, hence, why misinterpretation cannot be inferred from endorsement of some of the items. Next, a re-analysis of Hoekstra et al.'s data reveals some puzzling differences between first-year and master students that demand further investigation. For that purpose, we designed a replication study with an extended questionnaire including two additional items that express correct interpretations of CIs (to compare endorsement of correct vs. nominally incorrect interpretations) and we asked master students to indicate which items they would have omitted had they had the option (to distinguish deliberate from uninformed endorsement caused by the forced-response format). Results showed that incognizant first-year students endorsed correct and nominally incorrect items identically, revealing that the two item types are not differentially attractive superficially; in contrast, master students were distinctively more prone to endorsing correct items when their uninformed responses were removed, although they admitted to nescience more often that might have been expected. Implications for teaching practices are discussed. PMID:27458424

Study of FibroTest and hyaluronic acid biological variation in healthy volunteers and comparison of serum hyaluronic acid biological variation between chronic liver diseases of different etiology and fibrotic stage using confidence intervals.

PubMed

Istaces, Nicolas; Gulbis, Béatrice

2015-07-01

Personalized ranges of liver fibrosis serum biomarkers such as FibroTest or hyaluronic acid could be used for early detection of fibrotic changes in patients with progressive chronic liver disease. Our aim was to generate reliable biological variation estimates for these two biomarkers with confidence intervals for within-subject biological variation and reference change value. Nine fasting healthy volunteers and 66 chronic liver disease patients were included. Biological variation estimates were calculated for FibroTest in healthy volunteers, and for hyaluronic acid in healthy volunteers and chronic liver disease patients stratified by etiology and liver fibrosis stage. In healthy volunteers, within-subject biological coefficient of variation (with 95% confidence intervals) and index of individuality were 20% (16%-28%) and 0.6 for FibroTest and 34% (27%-47%) and 0.79 for hyaluronic acid, respectively. Overall hyaluronic acid within-subject biological coefficient of variation was similar among non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and chronic hepatitis C with 41% (34%-52%) and 45% (39%-55%), respectively, in contrast to chronic hepatitis B with 170% (140%-215%). Hyaluronic acid within-subject biological coefficients of variation were similar between F0-F1, F2 and F3 liver fibrosis stages in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease with 34% (25%-49%), 41% (31%-59%) and 34% (23%-62%), respectively, and in chronic hepatitis C with 34% (27%-47%), 33% (26%-45%) and 38% (27%-65%), respectively. However, corresponding hyaluronic acid indexes of individuality were lower in the higher fibrosis stages. Non-overlapping confidence intervals of biological variation estimates allowed us to detect significant differences regarding hyaluronic acid biological variation between chronic liver disease subgroups. Copyright © 2015 The Canadian Society of Clinical Chemists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Doubly Bayesian Analysis of Confidence in Perceptual Decision-Making.

PubMed

Aitchison, Laurence; Bang, Dan; Bahrami, Bahador; Latham, Peter E

2015-10-01

Humans stand out from other animals in that they are able to explicitly report on the reliability of their internal operations. This ability, which is known as metacognition, is typically studied by asking people to report their confidence in the correctness of some decision. However, the computations underlying confidence reports remain unclear. In this paper, we present a fully Bayesian method for directly comparing models of confidence. Using a visual two-interval forced-choice task, we tested whether confidence reports reflect heuristic computations (e.g. the magnitude of sensory data) or Bayes optimal ones (i.e. how likely a decision is to be correct given the sensory data). In a standard design in which subjects were first asked to make a decision, and only then gave their confidence, subjects were mostly Bayes optimal. In contrast, in a less-commonly used design in which subjects indicated their confidence and decision simultaneously, they were roughly equally likely to use the Bayes optimal strategy or to use a heuristic but suboptimal strategy. Our results suggest that, while people's confidence reports can reflect Bayes optimal computations, even a small unusual twist or additional element of complexity can prevent optimality.

A spreadsheet template compatible with Microsoft Excel and iWork Numbers that returns the simultaneous confidence intervals for all pairwise differences between multiple sample means.

PubMed

Brown, Angus M

2010-04-01

The objective of the method described in this paper is to develop a spreadsheet template for the purpose of comparing multiple sample means. An initial analysis of variance (ANOVA) test on the data returns F--the test statistic. If F is larger than the critical F value drawn from the F distribution at the appropriate degrees of freedom, convention dictates rejection of the null hypothesis and allows subsequent multiple comparison testing to determine where the inequalities between the sample means lie. A variety of multiple comparison methods are described that return the 95% confidence intervals for differences between means using an inclusive pairwise comparison of the sample means. 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A comparison of confidence interval methods for the concordance correlation coefficient and intraclass correlation coefficient with small number of raters.

PubMed

Feng, Dai; Svetnik, Vladimir; Coimbra, Alexandre; Baumgartner, Richard

2014-01-01

The intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) with fixed raters or, equivalently, the concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) for continuous outcomes is a widely accepted aggregate index of agreement in settings with small number of raters. Quantifying the precision of the CCC by constructing its confidence interval (CI) is important in early drug development applications, in particular in qualification of biomarker platforms. In recent years, there have been several new methods proposed for construction of CIs for the CCC, but their comprehensive comparison has not been attempted. The methods consisted of the delta method and jackknifing with and without Fisher's Z-transformation, respectively, and Bayesian methods with vague priors. In this study, we carried out a simulation study, with data simulated from multivariate normal as well as heavier tailed distribution (t-distribution with 5 degrees of freedom), to compare the state-of-the-art methods for assigning CI to the CCC. When the data are normally distributed, the jackknifing with Fisher's Z-transformation (JZ) tended to provide superior coverage and the difference between it and the closest competitor, the Bayesian method with the Jeffreys prior was in general minimal. For the nonnormal data, the jackknife methods, especially the JZ method, provided the coverage probabilities closest to the nominal in contrast to the others which yielded overly liberal coverage. Approaches based upon the delta method and Bayesian method with conjugate prior generally provided slightly narrower intervals and larger lower bounds than others, though this was offset by their poor coverage. Finally, we illustrated the utility of the CIs for the CCC in an example of a wake after sleep onset (WASO) biomarker, which is frequently used in clinical sleep studies of drugs for treatment of insomnia.

Clinical Presentation, Risk Factors, and Outcomes of Hematogenous Prosthetic Joint Infection in Patients with Staphylococcus aureus Bacteremia.

PubMed

Tande, Aaron J; Palraj, Bharath Raj; Osmon, Douglas R; Berbari, Elie F; Baddour, Larry M; Lohse, Christine M; Steckelberg, James M; Wilson, Walter R; Sohail, M Rizwan

2016-02-01

Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia is a life-threatening condition that may lead to metastatic infection, including prosthetic joint infection. To assess clinical factors associated with hematogenous prosthetic joint infection, we retrospectively reviewed all patients with a joint arthroplasty in place at the time of a first episode of S. aureus bacteremia over a 5-year period at our institution. Patients with postsurgical prosthetic joint infection without hematogenous prosthetic joint infection were excluded. There were 85 patients (143 arthroplasties) with either no prosthetic joint infection (n = 50; 58.8%) or hematogenous prosthetic joint infection in at least one arthroplasty (n = 35; 41.2%). The odds of hematogenous prosthetic joint infection was significantly increased among patients with community-acquired S. aureus bacteremia (odds ratio [OR] 18.07; 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.64-infinity; P = .001), as compared with nosocomial S. aureus bacteremia, in which there were no patients with hematogenous prosthetic joint infection. After adjusting for S. aureus bacteremia classification, the presence of ≥3 joint arthroplasties in place was associated with a nearly ninefold increased odds of hematogenous prosthetic joint infection as compared with those with 1-2 joint arthroplasties in place (OR 8.55; 95% CI 1.44-95.71; P = .012). All but one joint with prosthetic joint infection demonstrated at least one clinical feature suggestive of infection. There were 4 additional S. aureus prosthetic joint infections diagnosed during a median of 3.4 years of follow-up post hospitalization for S. aureus bacteremia. Prosthetic joint infection is frequent in patients with existing arthroplasties and concomitant S. aureus bacteremia, particularly with community-acquired S. aureus bacteremia and multiple prostheses. In contrast, occult S. aureus prosthetic joint infection without clinical features suggestive of prosthetic joint infection at the time of S. aureus bacteremia

Reliable prediction intervals with regression neural networks.

PubMed

Papadopoulos, Harris; Haralambous, Haris

2011-10-01

This paper proposes an extension to conventional regression neural networks (NNs) for replacing the point predictions they produce with prediction intervals that satisfy a required level of confidence. Our approach follows a novel machine learning framework, called Conformal Prediction (CP), for assigning reliable confidence measures to predictions without assuming anything more than that the data are independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.). We evaluate the proposed method on four benchmark datasets and on the problem of predicting Total Electron Content (TEC), which is an important parameter in trans-ionospheric links; for the latter we use a dataset of more than 60000 TEC measurements collected over a period of 11 years. Our experimental results show that the prediction intervals produced by our method are both well calibrated and tight enough to be useful in practice. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Joint and fascial chronic graft-vs-host disease: correlations with clinical and laboratory parameters

PubMed Central

Vukić, Tamara; Smith, Sean Robinson; Ljubas Kelečić, Dina; Desnica, Lana; Prenc, Ema; Pulanić, Dražen; Vrhovac, Radovan; Nemet, Damir; Pavletic, Steven Z.

2016-01-01

Aim To determine if there are correlations between joint and fascial chronic graft-vs-host disease (cGVHD) with clinical findings, laboratory parameters, and measures of functional capacity. Methods 29 patients were diagnosed with cGVHD based on National Institutes of Health (NIH) Consensus Criteria at the University Hospital Centre Zagreb from October 2013 to October 2015. Physical examination, including functional measures such as 2-minute walk test and hand grip strength, as well as laboratory tests were performed. The relationship between these evaluations and the severity of joint and fascial cGVHD was tested by logistical regression analysis. Results 12 of 29 patients (41.3%) had joint and fascial cGVHD diagnosed according to NIH Consensus Criteria. There was a significant positive correlation of joint and fascial cGVHD and skin cGVHD (P < 0.001), serum C3 complement level (P = 0.045), and leukocytes (P = 0.032). There was a significant negative correlation between 2-minute walk test (P = 0.016), percentage of cytotoxic T cells CD3+/CD8+ (P = 0.022), serum albumin (P = 0.047), and Karnofsky score (P < 0.001). Binary logistic regression model found that a significant predictor for joint and fascial cGVHD was cGVHD skin involvement (odds ratio, 7.79; 95 confidence interval 1.87-32.56; P = 0.005). Conclusion Joint and fascial cGVHD manifestations correlated with multiple laboratory measurements, clinical features, and cGVHD skin involvement, which was a significant predictor for joint and fascial cGVHD. PMID:27374828

What role do plain radiographs have in assessing the skeletally immature acromioclavicular joint?

PubMed

Lee, Seung Yeol; Kwon, Soon-Sun; Chung, Chin Youb; Lee, Kyoung Min; Park, Moon Seok

2014-01-01

Because of incomplete ossification of the coracoid process and acromion, acromioclavicular joint configuration in the skeletally immature patient differs from that of adults. Although comparison to radiographic standards for this joint is critical in the evaluation of acromioclavicular joint injuries, these standards are not well defined for children or adolescents. We therefore sought to determine (1) the reliability of numerous radiographic measurements of the skeletally immature acromioclavicular joint, including the vertical and shortest coracoclavicular interval, and the acromioclavicular joint offset; (2) the timing of ossification of the acromion and coracoid in males and females; and (3) the differences in the values of these radiographic measurements based on age and sex. This study was based on a total of 485 subjects, 8 to 18 years old, who underwent conventional AP view radiographs of both shoulders. The 485 subjects were included to assess normal configuration around the acromioclavicular joint and 466 of these subjects were evaluated for comparison between both sides. The vertical and shortest coracoclavicular interval, coracoclavicular clavicle width ratio, acromioclavicular joint offset, and difference of the coracoclavicular interval of both sides were measured. A reliability test was conducted before obtaining the main measurements. The relationship of measurements with sex, age, and stage of ossification was evaluated. The vertical and shortest coracoclavicular interval showed excellent reliability (intraclass correlation coefficient ([ICC], 0.918 and 0.934). The acromioclavicular joint offset showed low reliability (ICC, 0.543). The ossification centers of the acromion and the coracoid processes appeared and fused earlier in females than in males. The vertical coracoclavicular interval, which was not affected by partial ossification of the coracoid process, was less than 11 mm in the 90% quantile of total subjects in males and 10 mm in the 90

[Eradication of Staphylococcus aureus in carrier patients undergoing joint arthroplasty].

PubMed

Barbero Allende, José M; Romanyk Cabrera, Juan; Montero Ruiz, Eduardo; Vallés Purroy, Alfonso; Melgar Molero, Virginia; Agudo López, Rosa; Gete García, Luis; López Álvarez, Joaquín

2015-02-01

Prosthetic joint infection (PJI) is a complication with serious repercussions and its main cause is Staphylococcus aureus. The purpose of this study is to determine whether decolonization of S.aureus carriers helps to reduce the incidence of PJI by S.aureus. An S.aureus screening test was performed on nasal carriers in patients undergoing knee or hip arthroplasty between January and December 2011. Patients with a positive test were treated with intranasal mupirocin and chlorhexidine soap 5 days. The incidence of PJI was compared with patients undergoing the same surgery between January and December 2010. A total of 393 joint replacements were performed in 391 patients from the control group, with 416 joint replacements being performed in the intervention group. Colonization study was performed in 382 patients (91.8%), of which 102 were positive (26.7%) and treated. There was 2 PJI due S.aureus compared with 9 in the control group (0.5% vs 2.3%, odds ratio [OR]: 0.2, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.4 to 2.3, P=.04). In our study, the detection of colonization and eradication of S.aureus carriers achieved a significant decrease in PJI due to S.aureus compared to a historical group. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier España, S.L.U. y Sociedad Española de Enfermedades Infecciosas y Microbiología Clínica. All rights reserved.

The integrated model of sport confidence: a canonical correlation and mediational analysis.

PubMed

Koehn, Stefan; Pearce, Alan J; Morris, Tony

2013-12-01

The main purpose of the study was to examine crucial parts of Vealey's (2001) integrated framework hypothesizing that sport confidence is a mediating variable between sources of sport confidence (including achievement, self-regulation, and social climate) and athletes' affect in competition. The sample consisted of 386 athletes, who completed the Sources of Sport Confidence Questionnaire, Trait Sport Confidence Inventory, and Dispositional Flow Scale-2. Canonical correlation analysis revealed a confidence-achievement dimension underlying flow. Bias-corrected bootstrap confidence intervals in AMOS 20.0 were used in examining mediation effects between source domains and dispositional flow. Results showed that sport confidence partially mediated the relationship between achievement and self-regulation domains and flow, whereas no significant mediation was found for social climate. On a subscale level, full mediation models emerged for achievement and flow dimensions of challenge-skills balance, clear goals, and concentration on the task at hand.

Anatomy of the capsulolabral complex and rotator interval related to glenohumeral instability.

PubMed

Itoigawa, Yoshiaki; Itoi, Eiji

2016-02-01

The glenohumeral joint with instability is a common diagnosis that often requires surgery. The aim of this review was to present an overview of the anatomy of the glenohumeral joint with emphasis on instability based on the current literature and to describe the detailed anatomy and anatomical variants of the glenohumeral joint associated with anterior and posterior shoulder instability. A review was performed using PubMed/MEDLINE using key words: Search terms were "glenohumeral", "shoulder instability", "cadaver", "rotator interval", "anatomy", and "anatomical study". During the last decade, the interest in both arthroscopic repair techniques and surgical anatomy of the glenohumeral ligament (superior, middle, and inferior), labrum, and rotator interval has increased. Understanding of the rotator interval and attachment of the inferior glenohumeral ligament on the glenoid or humeral head have evolved significantly. The knowledge of the detailed anatomy and anatomical variations is essential for the surgeon in order to understand the pathology, make a correct diagnosis of instability, and select proper treatment options. Proper understanding of anatomical variants can help us avoid misdiagnosis. Level of evidence V.

Joint Association of Low Vitamin D and Vitamin K Status With Blood Pressure and Hypertension.

PubMed

van Ballegooijen, Adriana J; Cepelis, Aivaras; Visser, Marjolein; Brouwer, Ingeborg A; van Schoor, Natasja M; Beulens, Joline W

2017-06-01

Low vitamin D and K status are both associated with an increased cardiovascular risk. New evidence from experimental studies on bone health suggest an interaction between vitamin D and K; however, a joint association with vascular health outcomes is largely unknown. To prospectively investigate whether the combination of low vitamin D and K status is associated with higher systolic and diastolic blood pressure in 402 participants and with incident hypertension in 231 participants free of hypertension at baseline. We used data from a subsample of the Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam, a population-based cohort of Dutch participants aged 55 to 65 years. Vitamin D and K status were assessed by 25-hydroxyvitamin D and dp-ucMGP (dephosphorylated uncarboxylated matrix gla protein) concentrations (high dp-ucMGP is indicative for low vitamin K status) in stored samples from 2002 to 2003. Vitamin D and K status were categorized into 25-hydroxyvitamin D <50/≥50 mmol/L and median dp-ucMGP <323/≥323 pmol/L. During a median follow-up of 6.4 years, 62% of the participants (n=143) developed hypertension. The combination of low vitamin D and K status was associated with increased systolic 4.8 mm Hg (95% confidence interval, 0.1-9.5) and diastolic 3.1 mm Hg (95% confidence interval, 0.5-5.7) blood pressure compared with high vitamin D and K status ( P for interaction =0.013 for systolic blood pressure and 0.068 for diastolic blood pressure). A similar trend was seen for incident hypertension: hazard ratio=1.62 (95% confidence interval, 0.96-2.73) for the low vitamin D and K group. The combination of low vitamin D and K status was associated with increased blood pressure and a trend for greater hypertension risk. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Interventions for increasing ankle joint dorsiflexion: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Young, Rebekah; Nix, Sheree; Wholohan, Aaron; Bradhurst, Rachael; Reed, Lloyd

2013-11-14

Ankle joint equinus, or restricted dorsiflexion range of motion (ROM), has been linked to a range of pathologies of relevance to clinical practitioners. This systematic review and meta-analysis investigated the effects of conservative interventions on ankle joint ROM in healthy individuals and athletic populations. Keyword searches of Embase, Medline, Cochrane and CINAHL databases were performed with the final search being run in August 2013. Studies were eligible for inclusion if they assessed the effect of a non-surgical intervention on ankle joint dorsiflexion in healthy populations. Studies were quality rated using a standard quality assessment scale. Standardised mean differences (SMDs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated and results were pooled where study methods were homogenous. Twenty-three studies met eligibility criteria, with a total of 734 study participants. Results suggest that there is some evidence to support the efficacy of static stretching alone (SMDs: range 0.70 to 1.69) and static stretching in combination with ultrasound (SMDs: range 0.91 to 0.95), diathermy (SMD 1.12), diathermy and ice (SMD 1.16), heel raise exercises (SMDs: range 0.70 to 0.77), superficial moist heat (SMDs: range 0.65 to 0.84) and warm up (SMD 0.87) in improving ankle joint dorsiflexion ROM. Some evidence exists to support the efficacy of stretching alone and stretching in combination with other therapies in increasing ankle joint ROM in healthy individuals. There is a paucity of quality evidence to support the efficacy of other non-surgical interventions, thus further research in this area is warranted.

Interventions for increasing ankle joint dorsiflexion: a systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Ankle joint equinus, or restricted dorsiflexion range of motion (ROM), has been linked to a range of pathologies of relevance to clinical practitioners. This systematic review and meta-analysis investigated the effects of conservative interventions on ankle joint ROM in healthy individuals and athletic populations. Methods Keyword searches of Embase, Medline, Cochrane and CINAHL databases were performed with the final search being run in August 2013. Studies were eligible for inclusion if they assessed the effect of a non-surgical intervention on ankle joint dorsiflexion in healthy populations. Studies were quality rated using a standard quality assessment scale. Standardised mean differences (SMDs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated and results were pooled where study methods were homogenous. Results Twenty-three studies met eligibility criteria, with a total of 734 study participants. Results suggest that there is some evidence to support the efficacy of static stretching alone (SMDs: range 0.70 to 1.69) and static stretching in combination with ultrasound (SMDs: range 0.91 to 0.95), diathermy (SMD 1.12), diathermy and ice (SMD 1.16), heel raise exercises (SMDs: range 0.70 to 0.77), superficial moist heat (SMDs: range 0.65 to 0.84) and warm up (SMD 0.87) in improving ankle joint dorsiflexion ROM. Conclusions Some evidence exists to support the efficacy of stretching alone and stretching in combination with other therapies in increasing ankle joint ROM in healthy individuals. There is a paucity of quality evidence to support the efficacy of other non-surgical interventions, thus further research in this area is warranted. PMID:24225348

Contraceptive confidence and timing of first birth in Moldova: an event history analysis of retrospective data.

PubMed

Lyons-Amos, Mark; Padmadas, Sabu S; Durrant, Gabriele B

2014-08-11

To test the contraceptive confidence hypothesis in a modern context. The hypothesis is that women using effective or modern contraceptive methods have increased contraceptive confidence and hence a shorter interval between marriage and first birth than users of ineffective or traditional methods. We extend the hypothesis to incorporate the role of abortion, arguing that it acts as a substitute for contraception in the study context. Moldova, a country in South-East Europe. Moldova exhibits high use of traditional contraceptive methods and abortion compared with other European countries. Data are from a secondary analysis of the 2005 Moldovan Demographic and Health Survey, a nationally representative sample survey. 5377 unmarried women were selected. The outcome measure was the interval between marriage and first birth. This was modelled using a piecewise-constant hazard regression, with abortion and contraceptive method types as primary variables along with relevant sociodemographic controls. Women with high contraceptive confidence (modern method users) have a higher cumulative hazard of first birth 36 months following marriage (0.88 (0.87 to 0.89)) compared with women with low contraceptive confidence (traditional method users, cumulative hazard: 0.85 (0.84 to 0.85)). This is consistent with the contraceptive confidence hypothesis. There is a higher cumulative hazard of first birth among women with low (0.80 (0.79 to 0.80)) and moderate abortion propensities (0.76 (0.75 to 0.77)) than women with no abortion propensity (0.73 (0.72 to 0.74)) 24 months after marriage. Effective contraceptive use tends to increase contraceptive confidence and is associated with a shorter interval between marriage and first birth. Increased use of abortion also tends to increase contraceptive confidence and shorten birth duration, although this effect is non-linear-women with a very high use of abortion tend to have lengthy intervals between marriage and first birth. Published by

The Joint Associations of Sedentary Time and Physical Activity With Mobility Disability in Older People: The NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study.

PubMed

DiPietro, Loretta; Jin, Yichen; Talegawkar, Sameera; Matthews, Charles E

2018-03-14

The purpose of this study was to determine the joint associations of sedentary time and physical activity with mobility disability in older age. We analyzed prospective data from 134,269 participants in the National Institutes of Health (NIH)-American Association of Retired Persons (NIH-AARP) Diet and Health Study between 1995-1996 and 2004-2005. Total sitting time (h/d), TV viewing time (h/d) and light- and moderate-to-vigorous-intensity physical activity (h/wk) were self-reported at baseline, and mobility disability at follow-up was defined as being "unable to walk" or having an "easy usual walking pace (<2 mph)." Multivariable logistic regression determined the independent and joint associations of sedentary time and total physical activity with the odds of disability. Among the most active participants (>7 h/wk), sitting <6 h/d was not related to excess disability at follow-up, and those in the most active group reporting the highest level of sitting time (≥7 h/d) still had a significantly lower odds (odds ratios = 1.11; 95% confidence interval = 1.02, 1.20) compared with those reporting the lowest level of sitting (<3 h/d) in the least active group (≤3 h/wk; odds ratios = 2.07; 95% confidence interval = 1.92, 2.23). Greater TV time was significantly related to increased disability within all levels of physical activity. Reduction of sedentary time, combined with increased physical activity may be necessary to maintain function in older age.

Testing 40 Predictions from the Transtheoretical Model Again, with Confidence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Velicer, Wayne F.; Brick, Leslie Ann D.; Fava, Joseph L.; Prochaska, James O.

2013-01-01

Testing Theory-based Quantitative Predictions (TTQP) represents an alternative to traditional Null Hypothesis Significance Testing (NHST) procedures and is more appropriate for theory testing. The theory generates explicit effect size predictions and these effect size estimates, with related confidence intervals, are used to test the predictions.…

Ultrasonography and detection of subclinical joints and tendons involvements in Systemic Lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients: A cross-sectional multicenter study.

PubMed

Salliot, Carine; Denis, Amélie; Dernis, Emmanuelle; Andre, Vincent; Perdriger, Aleth; Albert, Jean-David; Mammou Mraghni, Saloua; Griffoul-Espitalier, Isabelle; Hamidou, Mohamed; Le Goff, Benoit; Joulin, Sandrine Jousse; Marhadour, Thierry; Richez, Christophe; Poursac, Nicolas; Lazaro, Estebaliz; Rist, Stéphanie; Corondan, Anca; Quinten, Clara; Martaillé, Virginie; Valéry, Antoine; Ducourau, Emilie

2018-02-15

The aims of this study in SLE population were (1) to describe ultrasonography (US) joint abnormalities, (2) to estimate the reliability of clinical swollen joint count (C-SJC) and SLEDAI (C-SLEDAI) versus US-SJC and US-SLEDAI scores, (3) to highlight specific patterns of lupus patients with Power Doppler (PD) abnormalities. For this cross-sectional multicenter study, 151 consecutive adult SLE patients were recruited. Evaluation included a clinical standardized joint assessment, B-mode and PD US of 40 joints and 26 tendons blinded for clinical examination. Reliability and agreement between clinical and B-mode US were calculated using the intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC [95% Confidence Interval]). We found a very high frequency of subclinical US abnormalities in asymptomatic patients: 85% of patients without joint symptoms had at least 1 US abnormality. Among them 46 patients (87%) had a history of joint involvement. The most frequent abnormalities were joint effusmaions (108 patients), synovial hypertrophy (SH, 109 patients) and synovitis (61 patients). Joint or tendon PD signal (grade>1) was found in 44% of patients (67/151). Synovitis were mainly located especially on MCPs and wrists. Even if reliability between clinical and grey-scale US SJC assessments was poor, reliability between clinical and US SLEDAI was good. Comparison between SLE patients with and without PD signal did not show any specific SLE pattern. US may be useful to assess joint involvement in SLE patients but did not significantly change SLEDAI score. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier SAS.

Four applications of permutation methods to testing a single-mediator model.

PubMed

Taylor, Aaron B; MacKinnon, David P

2012-09-01

Four applications of permutation tests to the single-mediator model are described and evaluated in this study. Permutation tests work by rearranging data in many possible ways in order to estimate the sampling distribution for the test statistic. The four applications to mediation evaluated here are the permutation test of ab, the permutation joint significance test, and the noniterative and iterative permutation confidence intervals for ab. A Monte Carlo simulation study was used to compare these four tests with the four best available tests for mediation found in previous research: the joint significance test, the distribution of the product test, and the percentile and bias-corrected bootstrap tests. We compared the different methods on Type I error, power, and confidence interval coverage. The noniterative permutation confidence interval for ab was the best performer among the new methods. It successfully controlled Type I error, had power nearly as good as the most powerful existing methods, and had better coverage than any existing method. The iterative permutation confidence interval for ab had lower power than do some existing methods, but it performed better than any other method in terms of coverage. The permutation confidence interval methods are recommended when estimating a confidence interval is a primary concern. SPSS and SAS macros that estimate these confidence intervals are provided.

Bootstrap Signal-to-Noise Confidence Intervals: An Objective Method for Subject Exclusion and Quality Control in ERP Studies

PubMed Central

Parks, Nathan A.; Gannon, Matthew A.; Long, Stephanie M.; Young, Madeleine E.

2016-01-01

Analysis of event-related potential (ERP) data includes several steps to ensure that ERPs meet an appropriate level of signal quality. One such step, subject exclusion, rejects subject data if ERP waveforms fail to meet an appropriate level of signal quality. Subject exclusion is an important quality control step in the ERP analysis pipeline as it ensures that statistical inference is based only upon those subjects exhibiting clear evoked brain responses. This critical quality control step is most often performed simply through visual inspection of subject-level ERPs by investigators. Such an approach is qualitative, subjective, and susceptible to investigator bias, as there are no standards as to what constitutes an ERP of sufficient signal quality. Here, we describe a standardized and objective method for quantifying waveform quality in individual subjects and establishing criteria for subject exclusion. The approach uses bootstrap resampling of ERP waveforms (from a pool of all available trials) to compute a signal-to-noise ratio confidence interval (SNR-CI) for individual subject waveforms. The lower bound of this SNR-CI (SNRLB) yields an effective and objective measure of signal quality as it ensures that ERP waveforms statistically exceed a desired signal-to-noise criterion. SNRLB provides a quantifiable metric of individual subject ERP quality and eliminates the need for subjective evaluation of waveform quality by the investigator. We detail the SNR-CI methodology, establish the efficacy of employing this approach with Monte Carlo simulations, and demonstrate its utility in practice when applied to ERP datasets. PMID:26903849

Intraoperative assessment of the stability of the distal tibiofibular joint in supination-external rotation injuries of the ankle: sensitivity, specificity, and reliability of two clinical tests.

PubMed

Pakarinen, Harri; Flinkkilä, Tapio; Ohtonen, Pasi; Hyvönen, Pekka; Lakovaara, Martti; Leppilahti, Juhana; Ristiniemi, Jukka

2011-11-16

This study was designed to assess the sensitivity, specificity, and interobserver reliability of the hook test and the stress test for the intraoperative diagnosis of instability of the distal tibiofibular joint following fixation of ankle fractures resulting from supination-external rotation forces. We conducted a prospective study of 140 patients with an unstable unilateral ankle fracture resulting from a supination-external rotation mechanism (Lauge-Hansen SE). After internal fixation of the malleolar fracture, a hook test and an external rotation stress test under fluoroscopy were performed independently by the lead surgeon and assisting surgeon, followed by a standardized 7.5-Nm external rotation stress test of each ankle under fluoroscopy. A positive stress test result was defined as a side-to-side difference of >2 mm in the tibiotalar or the tibiofibular clear space on mortise radiographs. The sensitivity and specificity of each test were calculated with use of the standardized 7.5-Nm external rotation stress test as a reference. Twenty-four (17%) of the 140 patients had a positive standardized 7.5-Nm external rotation stress test after internal fixation of the malleolar fracture. The hook test had a sensitivity of 0.25 (95% confidence interval, 0.12 to 0.45) and a specificity of 0.98 (95% confidence interval, 0.94 to 1.0) for the detection of the same instabilities. The external rotation stress test had a sensitivity of 0.58 (95% confidence interval, 0.39 to 0.76) and a specificity of 0.96 (95% confidence interval, 0.90 to 0.98). Both tests had excellent interobserver reliability, with 99% agreement for the hook test and 98% for the stress test. Interobserver agreement for the hook test and the clinical stress test was excellent, but the sensitivity of these tests was insufficient to adequately detect instability of the syndesmosis intraoperatively.

Microvascular anastomosis simulation using a chicken thigh model: Interval versus massed training.

PubMed

Schoeff, Stephen; Hernandez, Brian; Robinson, Derek J; Jameson, Mark J; Shonka, David C

2017-11-01

To compare the effectiveness of massed versus interval training when teaching otolaryngology residents microvascular suturing on a validated microsurgical model. Otolaryngology residents were placed into interval (n = 7) or massed (n = 7) training groups. The interval group performed three separate 30-minute practice sessions separated by at least 1 week, and the massed group performed a single 90-minute practice session. Both groups viewed a video demonstration and recorded a pretest prior to the first training session. A post-test was administered following the last practice session. At an academic medical center, 14 otolaryngology residents were assigned using stratified randomization to interval or massed training. Blinded evaluators graded performance using a validated microvascular Objective Structured Assessment of Technical Skill tool. The tool is comprised of two major components: task-specific score (TSS) and global rating scale (GRS). Participants also received pre- and poststudy surveys to compare subjective confidence in multiple aspects of microvascular skill acquisition. Overall, all residents showed increased TSS and GRS on post- versus pretest. After completion of training, the interval group had a statistically significant increase in both TSS and GRS, whereas the massed group's increase was not significant. Residents in both groups reported significantly increased levels of confidence after completion of the study. Self-directed learning using a chicken thigh artery model may benefit microsurgical skills, competence, and confidence for resident surgeons. Interval training results in significant improvement in early development of microvascular anastomosis skills, whereas massed training does not. NA. Laryngoscope, 127:2490-2494, 2017. © 2017 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

Estimation of parameters of dose volume models and their confidence limits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Luijk, P.; Delvigne, T. C.; Schilstra, C.; Schippers, J. M.

2003-07-01

Predictions of the normal-tissue complication probability (NTCP) for the ranking of treatment plans are based on fits of dose-volume models to clinical and/or experimental data. In the literature several different fit methods are used. In this work frequently used methods and techniques to fit NTCP models to dose response data for establishing dose-volume effects, are discussed. The techniques are tested for their usability with dose-volume data and NTCP models. Different methods to estimate the confidence intervals of the model parameters are part of this study. From a critical-volume (CV) model with biologically realistic parameters a primary dataset was generated, serving as the reference for this study and describable by the NTCP model. The CV model was fitted to this dataset. From the resulting parameters and the CV model, 1000 secondary datasets were generated by Monte Carlo simulation. All secondary datasets were fitted to obtain 1000 parameter sets of the CV model. Thus the 'real' spread in fit results due to statistical spreading in the data is obtained and has been compared with estimates of the confidence intervals obtained by different methods applied to the primary dataset. The confidence limits of the parameters of one dataset were estimated using the methods, employing the covariance matrix, the jackknife method and directly from the likelihood landscape. These results were compared with the spread of the parameters, obtained from the secondary parameter sets. For the estimation of confidence intervals on NTCP predictions, three methods were tested. Firstly, propagation of errors using the covariance matrix was used. Secondly, the meaning of the width of a bundle of curves that resulted from parameters that were within the one standard deviation region in the likelihood space was investigated. Thirdly, many parameter sets and their likelihood were used to create a likelihood-weighted probability distribution of the NTCP. It is concluded that for the

Prolonged corrected QT interval is predictive of future stroke events even in subjects without ECG-diagnosed left ventricular hypertrophy.

PubMed

Ishikawa, Joji; Ishikawa, Shizukiyo; Kario, Kazuomi

2015-03-01

We attempted to evaluate whether subjects who exhibit prolonged corrected QT (QTc) interval (≥440 ms in men and ≥460 ms in women) on ECG, with and without ECG-diagnosed left ventricular hypertrophy (ECG-LVH; Cornell product, ≥244 mV×ms), are at increased risk of stroke. Among the 10 643 subjects, there were a total of 375 stroke events during the follow-up period (128.7±28.1 months; 114 142 person-years). The subjects with prolonged QTc interval (hazard ratio, 2.13; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-3.73) had an increased risk of stroke even after adjustment for ECG-LVH (hazard ratio, 1.71; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-2.40). When we stratified the subjects into those with neither a prolonged QTc interval nor ECG-LVH, those with a prolonged QTc interval but without ECG-LVH, and those with ECG-LVH, multivariate-adjusted Cox proportional hazards analysis demonstrated that the subjects with prolonged QTc intervals but not ECG-LVH (1.2% of all subjects; incidence, 10.7%; hazard ratio, 2.70, 95% confidence interval, 1.48-4.94) and those with ECG-LVH (incidence, 7.9%; hazard ratio, 1.83; 95% confidence interval, 1.31-2.57) had an increased risk of stroke events, compared with those with neither a prolonged QTc interval nor ECG-LVH. In conclusion, prolonged QTc interval was associated with stroke risk even among patients without ECG-LVH in the general population. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

Joint Effect of Alcohol Consumption and Educational Level on Alcohol-related Medical Events: A Danish Register-based Cohort Study.

PubMed

Christensen, Helene Nordahl; Diderichsen, Finn; Hvidtfeldt, Ulla Arthur; Lange, Theis; Andersen, Per Kragh; Osler, Merete; Prescott, Eva; Tjønneland, Anne; Rod, Naja Hulvej; Andersen, Ingelise

2017-11-01

Alcohol-related mortality is more pronounced in lower than in higher socioeconomic groups in Western countries. Part of the explanation is differences in drinking patterns. However, differences in vulnerability to health consequences of alcohol consumption across socioeconomic groups may also play a role. We investigated the joint effect of alcohol consumption and educational level on the rate of alcohol-related medical events. We pooled seven prospective cohorts from Denmark that enrolled 74,278 men and women age 30-70 years (study period, 1981 to 2009). We measured alcohol consumption at baseline using self-administrated questionnaires. Information on highest attained education 1 year before study entry and hospital and mortality data on alcohol-related medical events were obtained through linkage to nationwide registries. We performed analyses using the Aalen additive hazards model. During follow-up (1,085,049 person-years), a total of 1718 alcohol-related events occurred. The joint effect of very high alcohol consumption (>21 [>28] drinks per week in women [men]) and low education on alcohol-related events exceeded the sum of their separate effects. Among men, we observed 289 (95% confidence interval = 123, 457) extra events per 100,000 person-years owing to education-alcohol interaction (P < 0.001). Similarly, among women, we observed 239 (95% confidence interval = 90, 388) extra events per 100,000 person-years owing to this interaction (P < 0.001). High alcohol consumption is associated with a higher risk of alcohol-related medical events among those with low compared with high education. This interaction may be explained by differences in vulnerability and drinking patterns across educational groups.See video abstract at, http://links.lww.com/EDE/B267.

Accelerated hand bone mineral density loss is associated with progressive joint damage in hands and feet in recent-onset rheumatoid arthritis.

PubMed

Güler-Yüksel, Melek; Klarenbeek, Naomi B; Goekoop-Ruiterman, Yvonne P M; de Vries-Bouwstra, Jeska K; van der Kooij, Sjoerd M; Gerards, Andreas H; Ronday, H Karel; Huizinga, Tom W J; Dijkmans, Ben A C; Allaart, Cornelia F; Lems, Willem F

2010-01-01

To investigate whether accelerated hand bone mineral density (BMD) loss is associated with progressive joint damage in hands and feet in the first year of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and whether it is an independent predictor of subsequent progressive total joint damage after 4 years. In 256 recent-onset RA patients, baseline and 1-year hand BMD was measured in metacarpals 2-4 by digital X-ray radiogrammetry. Joint damage in hands and feet were scored in random order according to the Sharp-van der Heijde method at baseline and yearly up to 4 years. 68% of the patients had accelerated hand BMD loss (>-0.003 g/cm2) in the first year of RA. Hand BMD loss was associated with progressive joint damage after 1 year both in hands and feet with odds ratios (OR) (95% confidence intervals [CI]) of 5.3 (1.3-20.9) and 3.1 (1.0-9.7). In univariate analysis, hand BMD loss in the first year was a predictor of subsequent progressive total joint damage after 4 years with an OR (95% CI) of 3.1 (1.3-7.6). Multivariate analysis showed that only progressive joint damage in the first year and anti-citrullinated protein antibody positivity were independent predictors of long-term progressive joint damage. In the first year of RA, accelerated hand BMD loss is associated with progressive joint damage in both hands and feet. Hand BMD loss in the first year of recent-onset RA predicts subsequent progressive total joint damage, however not independent of progressive joint damage in the first year.

Predictor sort sampling and one-sided confidence bounds on quantiles

Treesearch

Steve Verrill; Victoria L. Herian; David W. Green

2002-01-01

Predictor sort experiments attempt to make use of the correlation between a predictor that can be measured prior to the start of an experiment and the response variable that we are investigating. Properly designed and analyzed, they can reduce necessary sample sizes, increase statistical power, and reduce the lengths of confidence intervals. However, if the non- random...

Confidence estimation for quantitative photoacoustic imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gröhl, Janek; Kirchner, Thomas; Maier-Hein, Lena

2018-02-01

Quantification of photoacoustic (PA) images is one of the major challenges currently being addressed in PA research. Tissue properties can be quantified by correcting the recorded PA signal with an estimation of the corresponding fluence. Fluence estimation itself, however, is an ill-posed inverse problem which usually needs simplifying assumptions to be solved with state-of-the-art methods. These simplifications, as well as noise and artifacts in PA images reduce the accuracy of quantitative PA imaging (PAI). This reduction in accuracy is often localized to image regions where the assumptions do not hold true. This impedes the reconstruction of functional parameters when averaging over entire regions of interest (ROI). Averaging over a subset of voxels with a high accuracy would lead to an improved estimation of such parameters. To achieve this, we propose a novel approach to the local estimation of confidence in quantitative reconstructions of PA images. It makes use of conditional probability densities to estimate confidence intervals alongside the actual quantification. It encapsulates an estimation of the errors introduced by fluence estimation as well as signal noise. We validate the approach using Monte Carlo generated data in combination with a recently introduced machine learning-based approach to quantitative PAI. Our experiments show at least a two-fold improvement in quantification accuracy when evaluating on voxels with high confidence instead of thresholding signal intensity.

Five-band microwave radiometer system for noninvasive brain temperature measurement in newborn babies: Phantom experiment and confidence interval

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugiura, T.; Hirata, H.; Hand, J. W.; van Leeuwen, J. M. J.; Mizushina, S.

2011-10-01

Clinical trials of hypothermic brain treatment for newborn babies are currently hindered by the difficulty in measuring deep brain temperatures. As one of the possible methods for noninvasive and continuous temperature monitoring that is completely passive and inherently safe is passive microwave radiometry (MWR). We have developed a five-band microwave radiometer system with a single dual-polarized, rectangular waveguide antenna operating within the 1-4 GHz range and a method for retrieving the temperature profile from five radiometric brightness temperatures. This paper addresses (1) the temperature calibration for five microwave receivers, (2) the measurement experiment using a phantom model that mimics the temperature profile in a newborn baby, and (3) the feasibility for noninvasive monitoring of deep brain temperatures. Temperature resolutions were 0.103, 0.129, 0.138, 0.105 and 0.111 K for 1.2, 1.65, 2.3, 3.0 and 3.6 GHz receivers, respectively. The precision of temperature estimation (2σ confidence interval) was about 0.7°C at a 5-cm depth from the phantom surface. Accuracy, which is the difference between the estimated temperature using this system and the measured temperature by a thermocouple at a depth of 5 cm, was about 2°C. The current result is not satisfactory for clinical application because the clinical requirement for accuracy must be better than 1°C for both precision and accuracy at a depth of 5 cm. Since a couple of possible causes for this inaccuracy have been identified, we believe that the system can take a step closer to the clinical application of MWR for hypothermic rescue treatment.

Joint effects of genetic variants and residential proximity to pesticide applications on hypospadias risk.

PubMed

Carmichael, Suzan L; Yang, Wei; Ma, Chen; Roberts, Eric; Kegley, Susan; English, Paul; Lammer, Edward J; Witte, John S; Shaw, Gary M

2016-08-01

We examined risks associated with joint exposure of gene variants and pesticides. Analyses included 189 cases and 390 male controls born from 1991 to 2003 in California's San Joaquin Valley. We used logistic regression to examine risks associated with joint exposures of gene variants and pesticides that our previous work identified as associated with hypospadias. Genetic variables were based on variants in DGKK, genes involved in sex steroid synthesis/metabolism, and genes involved in genital tubercle development. Pesticide exposure was based on residential proximity to commercial agricultural pesticide applications. Odds ratios (ORs) were highest among babies with joint exposures, who had two- to fourfold increased risks; for example, the OR was 3.7 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.8-16.5) among subjects with the risk-associated DGKK haplotype and pesticide exposure; OR, 1.5 (95% CI, 0.7-3.1) among subjects with the haplotype and no pesticide exposure; and OR, 0.9 (95% CI, 0.5-1.6) among subjects without the haplotype but with pesticide exposure, relative to subjects with neither. However, results did not provide statistical evidence that these risks were significantly greater than expected on an additive scale, relative to risks associated with one exposure at a time. We observed elevated risks associated with joint exposures to selected pesticides and genetic variants but no statistical evidence for interaction. Birth Defects Research (Part A) 106:653-658, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Determination of representative dimension parameter values of Korean knee joints for knee joint implant design.

PubMed

Kwak, Dai Soon; Tao, Quang Bang; Todo, Mitsugu; Jeon, Insu

2012-05-01

Knee joint implants developed by western companies have been imported to Korea and used for Korean patients. However, many clinical problems occur in knee joints of Korean patients after total knee joint replacement owing to the geometric mismatch between the western implants and Korean knee joint structures. To solve these problems, a method to determine the representative dimension parameter values of Korean knee joints is introduced to aid in the design of knee joint implants appropriate for Korean patients. Measurements of the dimension parameters of 88 male Korean knee joint subjects were carried out. The distribution of the subjects versus each measured parameter value was investigated. The measured dimension parameter values of each parameter were grouped by suitable intervals called the "size group," and average values of the size groups were calculated. The knee joint subjects were grouped as the "patient group" based on "size group numbers" of each parameter. From the iterative calculations to decrease the errors between the average dimension parameter values of each "patient group" and the dimension parameter values of the subjects, the average dimension parameter values that give less than the error criterion were determined to be the representative dimension parameter values for designing knee joint implants for Korean patients.

Comparative assessment of knee joint models used in multi-body kinematics optimisation for soft tissue artefact compensation.

PubMed

Richard, Vincent; Cappozzo, Aurelio; Dumas, Raphaël

2017-09-06

Estimating joint kinematics from skin-marker trajectories recorded using stereophotogrammetry is complicated by soft tissue artefact (STA), an inexorable source of error. One solution is to use a bone pose estimator based on multi-body kinematics optimisation (MKO) embedding joint constraints to compensate for STA. However, there is some debate over the effectiveness of this method. The present study aimed to quantitatively assess the degree of agreement between reference (i.e., artefact-free) knee joint kinematics and the same kinematics estimated using MKO embedding six different knee joint models. The following motor tasks were assessed: level walking, hopping, cutting, running, sit-to-stand, and step-up. Reference knee kinematics was taken from pin-marker or biplane fluoroscopic data acquired concurrently with skin-marker data, made available by the respective authors. For each motor task, Bland-Altman analysis revealed that the performance of MKO varied according to the joint model used, with a wide discrepancy in results across degrees of freedom (DoFs), models and motor tasks (with a bias between -10.2° and 13.2° and between -10.2mm and 7.2mm, and with a confidence interval up to ±14.8° and ±11.1mm, for rotation and displacement, respectively). It can be concluded that, while MKO might occasionally improve kinematics estimation, as implemented to date it does not represent a reliable solution to the STA issue. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cryotherapy and joint position sense in healthy participants: a systematic review.

PubMed

Costello, Joseph T; Donnelly, Alan E

2010-01-01

To (1) search the English-language literature for original research addressing the effect of cryotherapy on joint position sense (JPS) and (2) make recommendations regarding how soon healthy athletes can safely return to participation after cryotherapy. We performed an exhaustive search for original research using the AMED, CINAHL, MEDLINE, and SportDiscus databases from 1973 to 2009 to gather information on cryotherapy and JPS. Key words used were cryotherapy and proprioception, cryotherapy and joint position sense, cryotherapy, and proprioception. The inclusion criteria were (1) the literature was written in English, (2) participants were human, (3) an outcome measure included JPS, (4) participants were healthy, and (5) participants were tested immediately after a cryotherapy application to a joint. The means and SDs of the JPS outcome measures were extracted and used to estimate the effect size (Cohen d) and associated 95% confidence intervals for comparisons of JPS before and after a cryotherapy treatment. The numbers, ages, and sexes of participants in all 7 selected studies were also extracted. The JPS was assessed in 3 joints: ankle (n = 2), knee (n = 3), and shoulder (n = 2). The average effect size for the 7 included studies was modest, with effect sizes ranging from -0.08 to 1.17, with a positive number representing an increase in JPS error. The average methodologic score of the included studies was 5.4/10 (range, 5-6) on the Physiotherapy Evidence Database scale. Limited and equivocal evidence is available to address the effect of cryotherapy on proprioception in the form of JPS. Until further evidence is provided, clinicians should be cautious when returning individuals to tasks requiring components of proprioceptive input immediately after a cryotherapy treatment.

Real view radiology-impact on search patterns and confidence in radiology education.

PubMed

Bailey, Jared H; Roth, Trenton D; Kohli, Mark D; Heitkamp, Darel E

2014-07-01

Search patterns are important for radiologists because they enable systematic case review. Because radiology residents are exposed to so many imaging modalities and anatomic regions, and they rotate on-and-off service so frequently, they may have difficulty establishing effective search patterns. We developed Real View Radiology (RVR), an educational system founded on guided magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) case review and evaluated its impact on search patterns and interpretative confidence of junior radiology residents. RVR guides learners through unknown examinations by sequentially prompting learners to certain aspects of a case via a comprehensive question set and then providing immediate feedback. Junior residents first completed a brief evaluation regarding their level of confidence when interpreting certain joint MRI cases and frequency of search pattern use. They spent four half-days interpreting cases using RVR. Once finished, they repeated the evaluations. The junior resident results were compared to third-year residents who had not used RVR. The data were analyzed for change in confidence, use of search patterns, and number of cases completed. Twelve first-year and thirteen second-year residents (trained cohort) were enrolled in the study. During their 4-week musculoskeletal rotations, they completed on average 29.3 MRI knee (standard deviation [SD], 1.6) and 17.4 shoulder (SD, 1.2) cases using RVR. Overall search pattern scores of the trained cohort increased significantly both from pretraining to posttraining (knee P < .01, shoulder P < .01) and compared to the untrained third-year residents (knee (P < .01, and shoulder P < .01). The trained cohort confidence scores also increased significantly from pre to post for all joints (knee P < .01, shoulder P < .01, pelvis P < .01, and ankle P < .01). Radiology residents can increase their MRI case interpretation confidence and improve the consistency of search pattern use by training with a question

The influence of interpregnancy interval on infant mortality.

PubMed

McKinney, David; House, Melissa; Chen, Aimin; Muglia, Louis; DeFranco, Emily

2017-03-01

-<6 months (adjusted relative risk, 1.32; 95% confidence interval, 1.17-1.49) followed by interpregnancy intervals of 6-<12 months (adjusted relative risk, 1.16; 95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.30). Analysis stratified by maternal race revealed similar findings. Attributable risk calculation showed that 24.2% of infant mortalities following intervals of 0-<6 months and 14.1% with intervals of 6-<12 months are attributable to the short interpregnancy interval. By avoiding short interpregnancy intervals of ≤12 months we estimate that in the state of Ohio 31 infant mortalities (20 white and 8 black) per year could have been prevented and the infant mortality rate could have been reduced from 7.2-7.0 during this time frame. An interpregnancy interval of 12-60 months (1-5 years) between birth and conception of next pregnancy is associated with lowest risk of infant mortality. Public health initiatives and provider counseling to optimize birth spacing has the potential to significantly reduce infant mortality for both white and black mothers. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Vaccination Confidence and Parental Refusal/Delay of Early Childhood Vaccines.

PubMed

Gilkey, Melissa B; McRee, Annie-Laurie; Magnus, Brooke E; Reiter, Paul L; Dempsey, Amanda F; Brewer, Noel T

2016-01-01

To support efforts to address parental hesitancy towards early childhood vaccination, we sought to validate the Vaccination Confidence Scale using data from a large, population-based sample of U.S. parents. We used weighted data from 9,354 parents who completed the 2011 National Immunization Survey. Parents reported on the immunization history of a 19- to 35-month-old child in their households. Healthcare providers then verified children's vaccination status for vaccines including measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR), varicella, and seasonal flu. We used separate multivariable logistic regression models to assess associations between parents' mean scores on the 8-item Vaccination Confidence Scale and vaccine refusal, vaccine delay, and vaccination status. A substantial minority of parents reported a history of vaccine refusal (15%) or delay (27%). Vaccination confidence was negatively associated with refusal of any vaccine (odds ratio [OR] = 0.58, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.54-0.63) as well as refusal of MMR, varicella, and flu vaccines specifically. Negative associations between vaccination confidence and measures of vaccine delay were more moderate, including delay of any vaccine (OR = 0.81, 95% CI, 0.76-0.86). Vaccination confidence was positively associated with having received vaccines, including MMR (OR = 1.53, 95% CI, 1.40-1.68), varicella (OR = 1.54, 95% CI, 1.42-1.66), and flu vaccines (OR = 1.32, 95% CI, 1.23-1.42). Vaccination confidence was consistently associated with early childhood vaccination behavior across multiple vaccine types. Our findings support expanding the application of the Vaccination Confidence Scale to measure vaccination beliefs among parents of young children.

Clinical features of symptomatic patellofemoral joint osteoarthritis

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Introduction Patellofemoral joint osteoarthritis (OA) is common and leads to pain and disability. However, current classification criteria do not distinguish between patellofemoral and tibiofemoral joint OA. The objective of this study was to provide empirical evidence of the clinical features of patellofemoral joint OA (PFJOA) and to explore the potential for making a confident clinical diagnosis in the community setting. Methods This was a population-based cross-sectional study of 745 adults aged ≥50 years with knee pain. Information on risk factors and clinical signs and symptoms was gathered by a self-complete questionnaire, and standardised clinical interview and examination. Three radiographic views of the knee were obtained (weight-bearing semi-flexed posteroanterior, supine skyline and lateral) and individuals were classified into four subsets (no radiographic OA, isolated PFJOA, isolated tibiofemoral joint OA, combined patellofemoral/tibiofemoral joint OA) according to two different cut-offs: 'any OA' and 'moderate to severe OA'. A series of binary logistic and multinomial regression functions were performed to compare the clinical features of each subset and their ability in combination to discriminate PFJOA from other subsets. Results Distinctive clinical features of moderate to severe isolated PFJOA included a history of dramatic swelling, valgus deformity, markedly reduced quadriceps strength, and pain on patellofemoral joint compression. Mild isolated PFJOA was barely distinguished from no radiographic OA (AUC 0.71, 95% CI 0.66, 0.76) with only difficulty descending stairs and coarse crepitus marginally informative over age, sex and body mass index. Other cardinal signs of knee OA - the presence of effusion, bony enlargement, reduced flexion range of movement, mediolateral instability and varus deformity - were indicators of tibiofemoral joint OA. Conclusions Early isolated PFJOA is clinically manifest in symptoms and self-reported functional

Transforming Joint Warfighting Capabilities

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-01-01

Certification guidance covers Internet or Web compatibility and the layout to include window size, color, typography , and graphic format. Further require...developed the JMF concept, defined as a package of 20,000 personnel from designated component ready forces. It is aug- mented by supporting commands...trust and confidence in joint warfighting. PACOM established standing com- mand and control relationships for cri- sis response by designating primary

Preoperative Anemia Is Associated With Failure of Open Debridement Polyethylene Exchange in Acute and Acute Hematogenous Prosthetic Joint Infection.

PubMed

Swenson, Richard D; Butterfield, James A; Irwin, Timothy J; Zurlo, John J; Davis, Charles M

2018-06-01

Acute and acute hematogenous prosthetic joint infections (PJIs) are often treated with open debridement and polyethylene exchange (ODPE) in an effort to save the prosthesis, decrease morbidity, and reduce costs. However, failure of ODPE may compromise a subsequent 2-stage treatment. The purpose of this study is to identify patient factors that impact the success of ODPE for acute and acute hematogenous PJIs. A retrospective review examined comorbidities, preoperative laboratory values, and patient history for patients with successful and failed ODPE treatment for acute perioperative or acute hematogenous periprosthetic hip or knee joint infections. Successful treatment was defined as retaining a well-fixed implant without the need for additional surgery for a minimum of 6-month follow-up with or without lifelong oral maintenance antibiotics. Fifty-three of 72 patients (73.6%) underwent successful ODPE. Of the 19 failures, 14 completed 2-stage revision with one subsequent known failure for recurrent infection. Patients with a Staphylococcus aureus infection were more likely to fail ODPE (48.3% vs 11.6%, P = .0012, odds ratio 7.1, 95% confidence interval 2.3-25.3). Patients with a preoperative hematocrit ≤32.1 were also more likely to fail ODPE (55% vs 16%, P = .0013, odds ratio 6.7, 95% confidence interval 2.2-22.4). When neither risk factor was present, 97.1% of PJIs were successfully treated with ODPE. S aureus infection and preoperative hematocrit ≤32.1 are independent risk factors for ODPE failure. ODPE is a safe alternative to 2-stage revision in patients without preoperative anemia and without S aureus infection. Two-thirds of patients with a failed ODPE were successfully treated with a 2-stage reimplantation. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Post-acute care disparities in total joint arthroplasty.

PubMed

Lan, Roy H; Kamath, Atul F

2017-09-01

Understanding the socioeconomic factors that influence hospitalization and post-discharge metrics after joint replacement is important for identifying key areas of improvement in the delivery of orthopaedic care. An institutional administrative data set of 2869 patients from an academic arthroplasty referral center was analyzed to quantify the relationship between socioeconomic factors and post-acute rehabilitation care received, length of stay, and cost of care. The study used International Classification of Disease, ninth edition coding in order to identify cohorts of patients who received joint arthroplasty of the knee and hip between January 2007 and May 2015. The study found that females (odds ratio [OR], 2.07; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.74-2.46), minorities (OR, 2.11; 95% CI, 1.78-2.51), and non-private insurance holders (OR, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.26-1.94) were more likely to be assigned to institutional care after discharge. The study also found that minorities (OR, 1.45; 95% CI, 1.24-1.70) and non-private insurance holders (OR, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.16-1.77) are more likely to exhibit longer length of stay. Mean charges were higher for males when compared to females ($80,010 vs $74,855; P < .001), as well as total costs ($19,910 vs $18,613; P  = .001). Socioeconomic factors such as gender, race, and insurance status should be further explored with respect to healthcare policies seeking to influence quality of care and health outcomes.

Adhesive properties and adhesive joints strength of graphite/epoxy composites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rudawska, Anna; Stančeková, Dana; Cubonova, Nadezda; Vitenko, Tetiana; Müller, Miroslav; Valášek, Petr

2017-05-01

The article presents the results of experimental research of the adhesive joints strength of graphite/epoxy composites and the results of the surface free energy of the composite surfaces. Two types of graphite/epoxy composites with different thickness were tested which are used to aircraft structure. The single-lap adhesive joints of epoxy composites were considered. Adhesive properties were described by surface free energy. Owens-Wendt method was used to determine surface free energy. The epoxy two-component adhesive was used to preparing the adhesive joints. Zwick/Roell 100 strength device were used to determination the shear strength of adhesive joints of epoxy composites. The strength test results showed that the highest value was obtained for adhesive joints of graphite-epoxy composite of smaller material thickness (0.48 mm). Statistical analysis of the results obtained, the study showed statistically significant differences between the values of the strength of the confidence level of 0.95. The statistical analysis of the results also showed that there are no statistical significant differences in average values of surface free energy (0.95 confidence level). It was noted that in each of the results the dispersion component of surface free energy was much greater than polar component of surface free energy.

Composite measures of multi-joint symptoms, but not of radiographic osteoarthritis, are associated with functional outcomes: The Johnston County Osteoarthritis Project

PubMed Central

Nelson, Amanda E.; Elstad, Emily; DeVellis, Robert F.; Schwartz, Todd A.; Golightly, Yvonne M.; Renner, Jordan B.; Conaghan, Philip G.; Kraus, Virginia B.; Jordan, Joanne M.

2013-01-01

Purpose To determine associations between multiple joint symptoms and radiographic osteoarthritis (rOA) and functional outcomes. Methods Complete cross-sectional data for multi-joint symptoms and radiographs, Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) scores, and gait speed were available for 1307 Johnston County Osteoarthritis Project participants (34% men, 32% African American, mean age 66 years). Factor analysis of symptom scores and radiographic grades for the lumbosacral spine, bilateral hands, knees, and hips provided composite scores. Regression models were used to determine associations between composite scores, HAQ, and gait speed, adjusting for age, body mass index, gender, and race. Results Five rOA factors were identified: 1) IP/CMC factor (carpometacarpal [CMC] and all interphalangeal [IP] joints); 2) MCP factor (metacarpophalangeal joints 2–5); 3) Knee factor (tibiofemoral and patellofemoral joints); 4) Spine factor (L1/2 to L5/S1); and 5) Symptom factor. After adjustment, only the Symptom composite was significantly associated with HAQ and gait speed; a 1-standard deviation increase in Symptom score was associated with 9 times higher odds of having poorer function on the HAQ (odds ratio 9.32, 95% confidence interval [CI] 6.80, 12.77), and a clinically significant decline in gait speed (0.06 m/s, 95%CI −0.07, −0.05). Conclusions A novel Symptom composite score was associated with poorer functional outcomes. PMID:23639066

Vaccination Confidence and Parental Refusal/Delay of Early Childhood Vaccines

PubMed Central

Gilkey, Melissa B.; McRee, Annie-Laurie; Magnus, Brooke E.; Reiter, Paul L.; Dempsey, Amanda F.; Brewer, Noel T.

2016-01-01

Objective To support efforts to address parental hesitancy towards early childhood vaccination, we sought to validate the Vaccination Confidence Scale using data from a large, population-based sample of U.S. parents. Methods We used weighted data from 9,354 parents who completed the 2011 National Immunization Survey. Parents reported on the immunization history of a 19- to 35-month-old child in their households. Healthcare providers then verified children’s vaccination status for vaccines including measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR), varicella, and seasonal flu. We used separate multivariable logistic regression models to assess associations between parents’ mean scores on the 8-item Vaccination Confidence Scale and vaccine refusal, vaccine delay, and vaccination status. Results A substantial minority of parents reported a history of vaccine refusal (15%) or delay (27%). Vaccination confidence was negatively associated with refusal of any vaccine (odds ratio [OR] = 0.58, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.54–0.63) as well as refusal of MMR, varicella, and flu vaccines specifically. Negative associations between vaccination confidence and measures of vaccine delay were more moderate, including delay of any vaccine (OR = 0.81, 95% CI, 0.76–0.86). Vaccination confidence was positively associated with having received vaccines, including MMR (OR = 1.53, 95% CI, 1.40–1.68), varicella (OR = 1.54, 95% CI, 1.42–1.66), and flu vaccines (OR = 1.32, 95% CI, 1.23–1.42). Conclusions Vaccination confidence was consistently associated with early childhood vaccination behavior across multiple vaccine types. Our findings support expanding the application of the Vaccination Confidence Scale to measure vaccination beliefs among parents of young children. PMID:27391098

Diagnostic accuracy of point-of-care ultrasound for evaluation of early blood-induced joint changes: Comparison with MRI.

PubMed

Foppen, W; van der Schaaf, I C; Beek, F J A; Mali, W P T M; Fischer, K

2018-05-23

Recurrent joint bleeding is the hallmark of haemophilia. Synovial hypertrophy observed with Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) is associated with an increased risk of future joint bleeding. The aim of this study was to investigate whether point-of-care ultrasound (POC-US) is an accurate alternative for MRI for the detection of early joint changes. In this single centre diagnostic accuracy study, bilateral knees and ankles of haemophilia patients with no or minimal arthropathy on X-rays were scanned using POC-US and 3 Tesla MRI. POC-US was performed by 1 medical doctor, blinded for MRI, according to the "Haemophilia Early Arthropathy Detection with Ultrasound" (HEAD-US) protocol. MRIs were independently scored by 2 radiologists, blinded for clinical data and ultrasound results. Diagnostic accuracy parameters were calculated with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Knees and ankles of 24 haemophilia patients (96 joints), aged 18-34, were studied. Synovial hypertrophy on MRI was observed in 20% of joints. POC-US for synovial tissue was correct (overall accuracy) in 97% (CI: 91-99) with a positive predictive value of 94% (CI: 73-100) and a negative predictive value of 97% (CI: 91-100). The overall accuracy of POC-US for cartilage abnormalities was 91% (CI: 83-96) and for bone surface irregularities 97% (CI: 91-99). POC-US could accurately assess synovial hypertrophy, bone surface irregularities and cartilage abnormalities in haemophilia patients with limited joint disease. As POC-US is an accurate and available alternative for MRI, it can be used for routine evaluation of early joint changes. © 2018 The Authors. Haemophilia published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Confidence-Accuracy Relationship for Eyewitness Identification Decisions: Effects of Exposure Duration, Retention Interval, and Divided Attention

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Palmer, Matthew A.; Brewer, Neil; Weber, Nathan; Nagesh, Ambika

2013-01-01

Prior research points to a meaningful confidence-accuracy (CA) relationship for positive identification decisions. However, there are theoretical grounds for expecting that different aspects of the CA relationship (calibration, resolution, and over/underconfidence) might be undermined in some circumstances. This research investigated whether the…

Trends in P Value, Confidence Interval, and Power Analysis Reporting in Health Professions Education Research Reports: A Systematic Appraisal.

PubMed

Abbott, Eduardo F; Serrano, Valentina P; Rethlefsen, Melissa L; Pandian, T K; Naik, Nimesh D; West, Colin P; Pankratz, V Shane; Cook, David A

2018-02-01

To characterize reporting of P values, confidence intervals (CIs), and statistical power in health professions education research (HPER) through manual and computerized analysis of published research reports. The authors searched PubMed, Embase, and CINAHL in May 2016, for comparative research studies. For manual analysis of abstracts and main texts, they randomly sampled 250 HPER reports published in 1985, 1995, 2005, and 2015, and 100 biomedical research reports published in 1985 and 2015. Automated computerized analysis of abstracts included all HPER reports published 1970-2015. In the 2015 HPER sample, P values were reported in 69/100 abstracts and 94 main texts. CIs were reported in 6 abstracts and 22 main texts. Most P values (≥77%) were ≤.05. Across all years, 60/164 two-group HPER studies had ≥80% power to detect a between-group difference of 0.5 standard deviations. From 1985 to 2015, the proportion of HPER abstracts reporting a CI did not change significantly (odds ratio [OR] 2.87; 95% CI 1.04, 7.88) whereas that of main texts reporting a CI increased (OR 1.96; 95% CI 1.39, 2.78). Comparison with biomedical studies revealed similar reporting of P values, but more frequent use of CIs in biomedicine. Automated analysis of 56,440 HPER abstracts found 14,867 (26.3%) reporting a P value, 3,024 (5.4%) reporting a CI, and increased reporting of P values and CIs from 1970 to 2015. P values are ubiquitous in HPER, CIs are rarely reported, and most studies are underpowered. Most reported P values would be considered statistically significant.

Small sample mediation testing: misplaced confidence in bootstrapped confidence intervals.

PubMed

Koopman, Joel; Howe, Michael; Hollenbeck, John R; Sin, Hock-Peng

2015-01-01

Bootstrapping is an analytical tool commonly used in psychology to test the statistical significance of the indirect effect in mediation models. Bootstrapping proponents have particularly advocated for its use for samples of 20-80 cases. This advocacy has been heeded, especially in the Journal of Applied Psychology, as researchers are increasingly utilizing bootstrapping to test mediation with samples in this range. We discuss reasons to be concerned with this escalation, and in a simulation study focused specifically on this range of sample sizes, we demonstrate not only that bootstrapping has insufficient statistical power to provide a rigorous hypothesis test in most conditions but also that bootstrapping has a tendency to exhibit an inflated Type I error rate. We then extend our simulations to investigate an alternative empirical resampling method as well as a Bayesian approach and demonstrate that they exhibit comparable statistical power to bootstrapping in small samples without the associated inflated Type I error. Implications for researchers testing mediation hypotheses in small samples are presented. For researchers wishing to use these methods in their own research, we have provided R syntax in the online supplemental materials. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved.

Cryotherapy and Joint Position Sense in Healthy Participants: A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Costello, Joseph T.; Donnelly, Alan E.

2010-01-01

Abstract Objective: To (1) search the English-language literature for original research addressing the effect of cryotherapy on joint position sense (JPS) and (2) make recommendations regarding how soon healthy athletes can safely return to participation after cryotherapy. Data Sources: We performed an exhaustive search for original research using the AMED, CINAHL, MEDLINE, and SportDiscus databases from 1973 to 2009 to gather information on cryotherapy and JPS. Key words used were cryotherapy and proprioception, cryotherapy and joint position sense, cryotherapy, and proprioception. Study Selection: The inclusion criteria were (1) the literature was written in English, (2) participants were human, (3) an outcome measure included JPS, (4) participants were healthy, and (5) participants were tested immediately after a cryotherapy application to a joint. Data Extraction: The means and SDs of the JPS outcome measures were extracted and used to estimate the effect size (Cohen d) and associated 95% confidence intervals for comparisons of JPS before and after a cryotherapy treatment. The numbers, ages, and sexes of participants in all 7 selected studies were also extracted. Data Synthesis: The JPS was assessed in 3 joints: ankle (n  =  2), knee (n  =  3), and shoulder (n  =  2). The average effect size for the 7 included studies was modest, with effect sizes ranging from −0.08 to 1.17, with a positive number representing an increase in JPS error. The average methodologic score of the included studies was 5.4/10 (range, 5–6) on the Physiotherapy Evidence Database scale. Conclusions: Limited and equivocal evidence is available to address the effect of cryotherapy on proprioception in the form of JPS. Until further evidence is provided, clinicians should be cautious when returning individuals to tasks requiring components of proprioceptive input immediately after a cryotherapy treatment. PMID:20446845

Joint modelling compared with two stage methods for analysing longitudinal data and prospective outcomes: A simulation study of childhood growth and BP.

PubMed

Sayers, A; Heron, J; Smith, Adac; Macdonald-Wallis, C; Gilthorpe, M S; Steele, F; Tilling, K

2017-02-01

There is a growing debate with regards to the appropriate methods of analysis of growth trajectories and their association with prospective dependent outcomes. Using the example of childhood growth and adult BP, we conducted an extensive simulation study to explore four two-stage and two joint modelling methods, and compared their bias and coverage in estimation of the (unconditional) association between birth length and later BP, and the association between growth rate and later BP (conditional on birth length). We show that the two-stage method of using multilevel models to estimate growth parameters and relating these to outcome gives unbiased estimates of the conditional associations between growth and outcome. Using simulations, we demonstrate that the simple methods resulted in bias in the presence of measurement error, as did the two-stage multilevel method when looking at the total (unconditional) association of birth length with outcome. The two joint modelling methods gave unbiased results, but using the re-inflated residuals led to undercoverage of the confidence intervals. We conclude that either joint modelling or the simpler two-stage multilevel approach can be used to estimate conditional associations between growth and later outcomes, but that only joint modelling is unbiased with nominal coverage for unconditional associations.

Rotationplasty with vascular reconstruction for prosthetic knee joint infection.

PubMed

Fujiki, Masahide; Miyamoto, Shimpei; Nakatani, Fumihiko; Kawai, Akira; Sakuraba, Minoru

2015-01-01

Rotationplasty is used most often as a function-preserving salvage procedure after resection of sarcomas of the lower extremity; however, it is also used after infection of prosthetic knee joints. Conventional vascular management during rotationplasty is to preserve and coil major vessels, but recently, transection and reanastomosis of the major vessels has been widely performed. However, there has been little discussion regarding the optimal vascular management of rotationplasty after infection of prosthetic knee joints because rotationplasty is rarely performed for this indication. We reviewed four patients who had undergone resection of osteosarcomas of the femur, placement of a prosthetic knee joint, and rotationplasty with vascular reconstruction from 2010 to 2013. The mean interval between prosthetic joint replacement and rotationplasty was 10.4 years and the mean interval between the diagnosis of prosthesis infection and rotationplasty was 7.9 years. Rotationplasty was successful in all patients; however, in one patient, arterial thrombosis developed and necessitated urgent surgical removal and arterial reconstruction. All patients were able to walk independently with a prosthetic limb after rehabilitation. Although there is no consensus regarding the most appropriate method of vascular management during rotationplasty for revision of infected prosthetic joints, vascular transection and reanastomosis is a useful option.

Potential effect modifiers of the association between physical activity patterns and joint symptoms in middle aged women.

PubMed

Peeters, Geeske; Edwards, Kimberley L; Brown, Wendy J; Barker, Anna L; Arden, Nigel; Redmond, Anthony C; Conaghan, Philip G; Cicuttini, Flavia; Mishra, Gita D

2017-12-06

To examine whether body mass index (BMI), menopausal status and hormone therapy (HT) use modify the association between physical activity (PA) patterns throughout middle age and incidence and prevalence of joint symptoms in later middle age in women. Data were from 6661 participants (born 1946-1951) in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health. Surveys were completed every three years from 1998 to 2010 with questions on joint pain and stiffness, PA, height and weight, menopausal symptoms, and HT use. PA patterns were defined as 'none-or-low', 'low-or-meeting-guidelines', 'fluctuating' or 'meeting guidelines-at-all-times' (reference pattern). Logistic regression was used to examine the association between PA patterns and prevalent (in 2010) and cumulative incident (1998-2010) joint symptoms and effect modification by patterns of BMI, menopausal status and HT. The groups representing 'fluctuating' (odds ratio [OR]=1.34, 99% confidence interval [CI]=1.04-1.72) and 'none-or-low' physical activity (OR=1.60, CI =1.08-2.35) had higher odds of incident joint symptoms than those 'meeting guidelines-at-all-times'. Stratification by BMI showed that this association was statistically significant in the obese group only. No evidence was found for effect modification by menopausal status or HT use. The findings were similar for prevalent joint symptoms. Maintaining at least low levels of physical activity throughout middle age was associated with lower prevalence and incidence of joint symptoms in later life. This apparent protective effect of physical activity on joint symptoms was stronger in obese women than in under or normal weight women, and not related to menopause and HT status. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Perceptions of issues relating to exercise and joint health in rheumatoid arthritis: a UK-based questionnaire study.

PubMed

Law, Rebecca-Jane; Markland, David A; Jones, Jeremy G; Maddison, Peter J; Thom, Jeanette M

2013-09-01

This questionnaire study investigated the perceptions of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients across the UK in relation to exercise and joint health. The validity of the measure was also assessed. Members of the National Rheumatoid Arthritis Society (NRAS) with self-reported RA completed the questionnaire online. Items related to five factors that emerged from previous qualitative research. Participants responded using a five-point Likert-style scale (strongly disagree to strongly agree). The International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ) assessed physical activity. The model was tested using confirmatory factor analysis (LISREL 8.8); statistical analyses were conducted using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS). A total of 247 responses were collected over 47 days (88% females; age: 18-77 years; disease duration: <1-51 years). Acceptable factorial validity was revealed (Satorra-Bentler χ(2)  = 774.47, df = 454, p < 0.001, root mean squared error of approximation (RMSEA) = 0.05, 90% confidence interval RMSEA = 0.05-0.06, comparative fit index = 0.94, standardized root mean square residual = 0.09), with the following factor endorsements: 'Health professionals show exercise knowledge' (19%); 'Knowing what exercise should be done' (43%); 'Having to exercise because it is helpful' (72%); 'Worry about causing harm to joints' (44%); and 'Not wanting to exercise as joints hurt' (52%). Patient concerns about joint pain, joint harm and how to exercise were significantly associated with lower physical activity (p < 0.05). These results confirm that patients perceive exercise as beneficial. However, concerns about how to exercise, joint pain, causing harm to joints and a perceived lack of exercise knowledge among health professionals remain. Addressing these concerns may have implications for increasing physical activity within the RA population. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Power, effects, confidence, and significance: an investigation of statistical practices in nursing research.

PubMed

Gaskin, Cadeyrn J; Happell, Brenda

2014-05-01

To (a) assess the statistical power of nursing research to detect small, medium, and large effect sizes; (b) estimate the experiment-wise Type I error rate in these studies; and (c) assess the extent to which (i) a priori power analyses, (ii) effect sizes (and interpretations thereof), and (iii) confidence intervals were reported. Statistical review. Papers published in the 2011 volumes of the 10 highest ranked nursing journals, based on their 5-year impact factors. Papers were assessed for statistical power, control of experiment-wise Type I error, reporting of a priori power analyses, reporting and interpretation of effect sizes, and reporting of confidence intervals. The analyses were based on 333 papers, from which 10,337 inferential statistics were identified. The median power to detect small, medium, and large effect sizes was .40 (interquartile range [IQR]=.24-.71), .98 (IQR=.85-1.00), and 1.00 (IQR=1.00-1.00), respectively. The median experiment-wise Type I error rate was .54 (IQR=.26-.80). A priori power analyses were reported in 28% of papers. Effect sizes were routinely reported for Spearman's rank correlations (100% of papers in which this test was used), Poisson regressions (100%), odds ratios (100%), Kendall's tau correlations (100%), Pearson's correlations (99%), logistic regressions (98%), structural equation modelling/confirmatory factor analyses/path analyses (97%), and linear regressions (83%), but were reported less often for two-proportion z tests (50%), analyses of variance/analyses of covariance/multivariate analyses of variance (18%), t tests (8%), Wilcoxon's tests (8%), Chi-squared tests (8%), and Fisher's exact tests (7%), and not reported for sign tests, Friedman's tests, McNemar's tests, multi-level models, and Kruskal-Wallis tests. Effect sizes were infrequently interpreted. Confidence intervals were reported in 28% of papers. The use, reporting, and interpretation of inferential statistics in nursing research need substantial

The effect and durability of a pregraduation boot cAMP on the confidence of senior medical student entering surgical residencies.

PubMed

Okusanya, Olugbenga T; Kornfield, Zev N; Reinke, Caroline E; Morris, Jon B; Sarani, Babak; Williams, Noel N; Kelz, Rachel R

2012-01-01

Medical school does not specifically prepare students for surgical internship. Preinternship courses are known to increase confidence in multiple key areas. We examined the immediate effect and durability of effect of a surgical pregraduation preparatory course or "boot camp" on provider confidence in technical and medical management skills. A 5-day boot camp was offered to senior medical students (SMS) entering surgical programs. SMS were anonymously surveyed before, after, and 6 months following the course. The same survey was given 6 months into internship to a control group of surgical interns who graduated from the same medical school but did not participate in boot camp before graduation. Data were compared between the time intervals and across cases and controls using the Wilcoxon rank-sum and signed-rank tests and the Student t test. A joint effort between the University of Pennsylvania School of Medicine, the Department of Surgery at the Hospital of the University of Pennsylvania, and the Penn Medicine Simulation Center in Philadelphia, PA. All senior medical students set to graduate from a single institution entering general surgery or surgery subspecialties were offered the course. Twenty-nine students participated in the course. Post-boot camp confidence scores of SMS were significantly greater in all areas except placement of a peripheral intravenous catheter compared with pre-boot camp scores. Six months into internship, the SMS boot camp group felt more confident than controls in their ability to perform a cricothyroidotomy (median 2.5 vs 1.0, p = 0.04) and to insert a chest tube (median 3.3 vs 1.0, p = 0.05). Otherwise, there was no residual difference in confidence levels between the boot camp group and the controls. Boot camps can improve self-confidence in young doctors in many areas of perioperative care before enrolling in surgical residency. The effect is most durable in high risk, infrequently performed technical tasks. Future studies are

Diagnosis of prosthetic joint infection with alpha-defensin using a lateral flow device: a multicentre study.

PubMed

Berger, P; Van Cauter, M; Driesen, R; Neyt, J; Cornu, O; Bellemans, J

2017-09-01

The purpose of this current multicentre study is to analyse the presence of alpha-defensin proteins in synovial fluid using the Synovasure lateral flow device and to determine its diagnostic reliability and accuracy compared with the prosthetic joint infection (PJI) criteria produced by the Musculoskeletal Infection Society (MSIS). A cohort of 121 patients comprising 85 total knee arthroplasties and 36 total hip arthroplasties was prospectively evaluated between May 2015 and June 2016 in three different orthopaedic centres. The tests were performed on patients with a chronically painful prosthesis undergoing a joint aspiration in a diagnostic pathway or during revision surgery. Based on the MSIS criteria, 34 patients (28%) would have had a PJI, and 87 patients had no PJI. Testing with the lateral flow device had a sensitivity of 97.1% (95% confidence intervals (CI) 84.5 to 99.9) and a specificity of 96.6% (95% CI 90.3 to 99.2). The positive predictive value was 91.7% (95% CI 77.7% to 98.3), and the negative predictive value was 98.8% (95% CI 93.6 to 99.9). Receiver operator characteristics analysis demonstrated an area under the curve for the Synovasure test of 0.97 (95% CI 0.93 to 1.00). Our findings suggest that the Synovasure test has an excellent diagnostic performance to confirm or reject the diagnosis of a PJI. The results are promising for the care of the painful or problematic knee and hip joint arthroplasty and the test should be considered as part of the diagnostic toolbox for PJIs. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2017;99-B:1176-82. ©2017 The British Editorial Society of Bone & Joint Surgery.

Influence of Joint Flexibility on Vibration Analysis of Free-Free Beams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gunda, Jagadish Babu; Krishna, Y.

2014-12-01

In present work, joint flexibility (or looseness) of the free-free beam is investigated by using a two noded beam finite element formulation with transverse displacement and joint rotations as the degrees of freedom per node at joint location. Flexibility of the joint is primarily represented by means of a rotational spring analogy, where the stiffness of the rotational spring characterizes the looseness of the flexible joint for an applied bending moment. Influence of joint location as well as joint stiffness on modal behavior of first five modes of slender, uniform free-free beams are discussed for various values of non-dimensional rotational spring stiffness parameter. Numerical accuracy of the results obtained from the present finite element formulation are validated by using the commercially available finite element software which shows the confidence gained on the numerical results discussed in the present study.

Determining the Threshold for HbA1c as a Predictor for Adverse Outcomes After Total Joint Arthroplasty: A Multicenter, Retrospective Study.

PubMed

Tarabichi, Majd; Shohat, Noam; Kheir, Michael M; Adelani, Muyibat; Brigati, David; Kearns, Sean M; Patel, Pankajkumar; Clohisy, John C; Higuera, Carlos A; Levine, Brett R; Schwarzkopf, Ran; Parvizi, Javad; Jiranek, William A

2017-09-01

Although HbA1c is commonly used for assessing glycemic control before surgery, there is no consensus regarding its role and the appropriate threshold in predicting adverse outcomes. This study was designed to evaluate the potential link between HbA1c and subsequent periprosthetic joint infection (PJI), with the intention of determining the optimal threshold for HbA1c. This is a multicenter retrospective study, which identified 1645 diabetic patients who underwent primary total joint arthroplasty (1004 knees and 641 hips) between 2001 and 2015. All patients had an HbA1c measured within 3 months of surgery. The primary outcome of interest was a PJI at 1 year based on the Musculoskeletal Infection Society criteria. Secondary outcomes included orthopedic (wound and mechanical complications) and nonorthopedic complications (sepsis, thromboembolism, genitourinary, and cardiovascular complications). A regression analysis was performed to determine the independent influence of HbA1c for predicting PJI. Overall 22 cases of PJI occurred at 1 year (1.3%). HbA1c at a threshold of 7.7 was distinct for predicting PJI (area under the curve, 0.65; 95% confidence interval, 0.51-0.78). Using this threshold, PJI rates increased from 0.8% (11 of 1441) to 5.4% (11 of 204). In the stepwise logistic regression analysis, PJI remained the only variable associated with higher HbA1c (odds ratio, 1.5; confidence interval, 1.2-2.0; P = .0001). There was no association between high HbA1c levels and other complications assessed. High HbA1c levels are associated with an increased risk for PJI. A threshold of 7.7% seems to be more indicative of infection than the commonly used 7% and should perhaps be the goal in preoperative patient optimization. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Association of adherence to the seventh report of the Joint National Committee guidelines with hypertension in Korean men and women.

PubMed

Kim, Hye In; Song, Yoonju; Kim, Woo-Young; Lee, Jung Eun

2013-10-01

Whether the Seventh Report of the Joint National Committee on Prevention, Detection, Evaluation, and Treatment of High Blood Pressure (JNC-7) guidelines can be applied to the Asian population remains unclear. We aim to test the hypothesis that adherence to the JNC-7 guidelines is associated with hypertension in a representative sample of the Korean population in the fourth Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Participants completed a non-quantitative food frequency questionnaire and 24-hour diet recall through interviews. Blood pressure, height, and weight were directly measured, and questions about physical activity and other lifestyle factors were administered. A total of 500 hypertensive and 4567 normotensive participants were identified. We estimated the odds ratio and 95% confidence intervals using a multivariate logistic regression. The following components of the JNC-7 guidelines were considered: dietary approaches to stop a hypertension style diet, moderate consumption of alcohol, adequate physical activity, and a normal body mass index. Those individuals who fell in the low-risk category for all 4 lifestyle components had an odds ratio of 0.48 (95% confidence interval, 0.30-0.78) compared with the remainder of the participants. In conclusion, we found an inverse association between adherence to the JNC-7 guidelines and hypertension prevalence among Korean adults, suggesting the importance of lifestyle modification for the prevention and management of hypertension. © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Joint Replenishment Inventory Model with Lost Sales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Devy, N. L.; Ai, T. J.; Astanti, R. D.

2018-04-01

This paper deals with two items joint replenishment inventory problem, in which the demand of each items are constant and deterministic. Inventory replenishment of items is conducted periodically every T time intervals. Among of these replenishments, joint replenishment of both items is possible. It is defined that item i is replenished every ZiT time intervals. Replenishment of items are instantaneous. All of shortages are considered as lost sales. The maximum allowance for lost sales of item i is Si. Mathematical model is formulated in order to determining the basic time cycle T, replenishment multiplier Zi , and maximum lost sales Si in order to minimize the total cost per unit time. A solution methodology is proposed for solve the model and a numerical example is provided for demonstrating the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

Face distinctiveness and delayed testing: differential effects on performance and confidence.

PubMed

Metzger, Mitchell M

2006-04-01

The author investigated the effect of delayed testing on participants' memory for distinctive and typical faces. Participants viewed distinctive and typical faces and were then tested for recognition immediately or after a delay of 3, 6, or 12 weeks. Consistent with prior research, analysis of measure of sensitivity (d') showed that participants performed better on distinctive rather than typical faces, and memory performance declined with longer retention intervals between study and testing. Furthermore, the superior performance on distinctive faces had vanished by the 12-week test. Contrary to d' data, however, an analysis of confidence scores indicated that participants were still significantly more confident on trials depicting distinctive faces, even with a 12-week delay between study and recognition testing.

Prediction Interval Development for Wind-Tunnel Balance Check-Loading

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Landman, Drew; Toro, Kenneth G.; Commo, Sean A.; Lynn, Keith C.

2014-01-01

Results from the Facility Analysis Verification and Operational Reliability project revealed a critical gap in capability in ground-based aeronautics research applications. Without a standardized process for check-loading the wind-tunnel balance or the model system, the quality of the aerodynamic force data collected varied significantly between facilities. A prediction interval is required in order to confirm a check-loading. The prediction interval provides an expected upper and lower bound on balance load prediction at a given confidence level. A method has been developed which accounts for sources of variability due to calibration and check-load application. The prediction interval method of calculation and a case study demonstrating its use is provided. Validation of the methods is demonstrated for the case study based on the probability of capture of confirmation points.

Assessing Mediational Models: Testing and Interval Estimation for Indirect Effects.

PubMed

Biesanz, Jeremy C; Falk, Carl F; Savalei, Victoria

2010-08-06

Theoretical models specifying indirect or mediated effects are common in the social sciences. An indirect effect exists when an independent variable's influence on the dependent variable is mediated through an intervening variable. Classic approaches to assessing such mediational hypotheses ( Baron & Kenny, 1986 ; Sobel, 1982 ) have in recent years been supplemented by computationally intensive methods such as bootstrapping, the distribution of the product methods, and hierarchical Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. These different approaches for assessing mediation are illustrated using data from Dunn, Biesanz, Human, and Finn (2007). However, little is known about how these methods perform relative to each other, particularly in more challenging situations, such as with data that are incomplete and/or nonnormal. This article presents an extensive Monte Carlo simulation evaluating a host of approaches for assessing mediation. We examine Type I error rates, power, and coverage. We study normal and nonnormal data as well as complete and incomplete data. In addition, we adapt a method, recently proposed in statistical literature, that does not rely on confidence intervals (CIs) to test the null hypothesis of no indirect effect. The results suggest that the new inferential method-the partial posterior p value-slightly outperforms existing ones in terms of maintaining Type I error rates while maximizing power, especially with incomplete data. Among confidence interval approaches, the bias-corrected accelerated (BC a ) bootstrapping approach often has inflated Type I error rates and inconsistent coverage and is not recommended; In contrast, the bootstrapped percentile confidence interval and the hierarchical Bayesian MCMC method perform best overall, maintaining Type I error rates, exhibiting reasonable power, and producing stable and accurate coverage rates.

The joint contribution of neighborhood poverty and social integration to mortality risk in the United States.

PubMed

Marcus, Andrea Fleisch; Echeverria, Sandra E; Holland, Bart K; Abraido-Lanza, Ana F; Passannante, Marian R

2016-04-01

A well-established literature has shown that social integration strongly patterns health, including mortality risk. However, the extent to which living in high-poverty neighborhoods and having few social ties jointly pattern survival in the United States has not been examined. We analyzed data from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1988-1994) linked to mortality follow-up through 2006 and census-based neighborhood poverty. We fit Cox proportional hazards models to estimate associations between social integration and neighborhood poverty on all-cause mortality as independent predictors and in joint-effects models using the relative excess risk due to interaction to test for interaction on an additive scale. In the joint-effects model adjusting for age, gender, race/ ethnicity, and individual-level socioeconomic status, exposure to low social integration alone was associated with increased mortality risk (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.42, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.28-1.59) while living in an area of high poverty alone did not have a significant effect (HR: 1.10; 95% CI: 0.95-1.28) when compared with being jointly unexposed. Individuals simultaneously living in neighborhoods characterized by high poverty and having low levels of social integration had an increased risk of mortality (HR: 1.63; 95% CI: 1.35-1.96). However, relative excess risk due to interaction results were not statistically significant. Social integration remains an important determinant of mortality risk in the United States independent of neighborhood poverty. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Interpregnancy interval and risk of autistic disorder.

PubMed

Gunnes, Nina; Surén, Pål; Bresnahan, Michaeline; Hornig, Mady; Lie, Kari Kveim; Lipkin, W Ian; Magnus, Per; Nilsen, Roy Miodini; Reichborn-Kjennerud, Ted; Schjølberg, Synnve; Susser, Ezra Saul; Øyen, Anne-Siri; Stoltenberg, Camilla

2013-11-01

A recent California study reported increased risk of autistic disorder in children conceived within a year after the birth of a sibling. We assessed the association between interpregnancy interval and risk of autistic disorder using nationwide registry data on pairs of singleton full siblings born in Norway. We defined interpregnancy interval as the time from birth of the first-born child to conception of the second-born child in a sibship. The outcome of interest was autistic disorder in the second-born child. Analyses were restricted to sibships in which the second-born child was born in 1990-2004. Odds ratios (ORs) were estimated by fitting ordinary logistic models and logistic generalized additive models. The study sample included 223,476 singleton full-sibling pairs. In sibships with interpregnancy intervals <9 months, 0.25% of the second-born children had autistic disorder, compared with 0.13% in the reference category (≥ 36 months). For interpregnancy intervals shorter than 9 months, the adjusted OR of autistic disorder in the second-born child was 2.18 (95% confidence interval 1.42-3.26). The risk of autistic disorder in the second-born child was also increased for interpregnancy intervals of 9-11 months in the adjusted analysis (OR = 1.71 [95% CI = 1.07-2.64]). Consistent with a previous report from California, interpregnancy intervals shorter than 1 year were associated with increased risk of autistic disorder in the second-born child. A possible explanation is depletion of micronutrients in mothers with closely spaced pregnancies.

A modified Wald interval for the area under the ROC curve (AUC) in diagnostic case-control studies

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, referred to as the AUC, is an appropriate measure for describing the overall accuracy of a diagnostic test or a biomarker in early phase trials without having to choose a threshold. There are many approaches for estimating the confidence interval for the AUC. However, all are relatively complicated to implement. Furthermore, many approaches perform poorly for large AUC values or small sample sizes. Methods The AUC is actually a probability. So we propose a modified Wald interval for a single proportion, which can be calculated on a pocket calculator. We performed a simulation study to compare this modified Wald interval (without and with continuity correction) with other intervals regarding coverage probability and statistical power. Results The main result is that the proposed modified Wald intervals maintain and exploit the type I error much better than the intervals of Agresti-Coull, Wilson, and Clopper-Pearson. The interval suggested by Bamber, the Mann-Whitney interval without transformation and also the interval of the binormal AUC are very liberal. For small sample sizes the Wald interval with continuity has a comparable coverage probability as the LT interval and higher power. For large sample sizes the results of the LT interval and of the Wald interval without continuity correction are comparable. Conclusions If individual patient data is not available, but only the estimated AUC and the total sample size, the modified Wald intervals can be recommended as confidence intervals for the AUC. For small sample sizes the continuity correction should be used. PMID:24552686

A modified Wald interval for the area under the ROC curve (AUC) in diagnostic case-control studies.

PubMed

Kottas, Martina; Kuss, Oliver; Zapf, Antonia

2014-02-19

The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, referred to as the AUC, is an appropriate measure for describing the overall accuracy of a diagnostic test or a biomarker in early phase trials without having to choose a threshold. There are many approaches for estimating the confidence interval for the AUC. However, all are relatively complicated to implement. Furthermore, many approaches perform poorly for large AUC values or small sample sizes. The AUC is actually a probability. So we propose a modified Wald interval for a single proportion, which can be calculated on a pocket calculator. We performed a simulation study to compare this modified Wald interval (without and with continuity correction) with other intervals regarding coverage probability and statistical power. The main result is that the proposed modified Wald intervals maintain and exploit the type I error much better than the intervals of Agresti-Coull, Wilson, and Clopper-Pearson. The interval suggested by Bamber, the Mann-Whitney interval without transformation and also the interval of the binormal AUC are very liberal. For small sample sizes the Wald interval with continuity has a comparable coverage probability as the LT interval and higher power. For large sample sizes the results of the LT interval and of the Wald interval without continuity correction are comparable. If individual patient data is not available, but only the estimated AUC and the total sample size, the modified Wald intervals can be recommended as confidence intervals for the AUC. For small sample sizes the continuity correction should be used.

A systematic review of minimally invasive sacroiliac joint fusion utilizing a lateral transarticular technique.

PubMed

Heiney, Jake; Capobianco, Robyn; Cher, Daniel

2015-01-01

A number of studies have been published regarding minimally invasive surgical (MIS) fusion of the sacroiliac (SI) joint using a lateral transarticular approach. Herein we report a systematic review and meta-analysis to summarize operative measures and clinical outcomes reported in published studies of MIS SI joint fusion. The systematic review was done according to PRISMA standards. PubMed and EMBASE were searched using the terms sacroiliac joint AND fusion. Original peer-reviewed articles in the English language that reported clinical outcomes on at least 5 cases of MIS SI joint fusion using a lateral transarticular approach were included. Random effects meta-analysis (RMA) was performed on selected variables using the DerSimonian and Laird method, including operative measures, VAS SI joint pain ratings (0-10 scale) and Oswestry Disability Index (ODI). Mean and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated and heterogeneity was assessed. Other findings were summarized qualitatively. A total of 18 articles met the inclusion criteria. After accounting for overlapping cohorts, 12 unique cohorts from 4 countries were extracted for a total of 432 subjects. The RMA mean (range) was 59 minutes (27-78) for procedure time, 36.9cc (10-70) for estimated blood loss and 1.7 days (range 0-7) for length of stay (LOS). The RMA mean [95% CI] pain score dropped by 5.2 points at 6 months and 5.3 points at 12 months (baseline score of 8.1 [7.8-8.4], 12-month score of 2.7 [2.1-3.3]), and a 24-month score of 2.0(1.4-2.5). ODI decreased by 31 points at 12 months (baseline score of 56.2 [51.0-61.5], 6-month score of 30.7 [21.8-39.6], and 12-month score of 25.1 [12.3-37.9]). Some estimates showed significant variation across studies and between the types of implants used. Other reported outcomes were supportive of the positive effects of SI joint fusion. Published studies of MIS SI joint fusion using a lateral transarticular approach confirm its minimally invasive characteristics with

Temporomandibular joint dysfunction after mandibular fracture in children: a 10-year review.

PubMed

Leuin, Shelby C; Frydendall, Emily; Gao, Dexiang; Chan, Kenny H

2011-01-01

To collect demographic and clinical data on pediatric mandibular fractures and to assess temporomandibular joint (TMJ) dysfunction in patients with condylar and subcondylar (C/SC) fractures. Retrospective case series of pediatric mandibular fractures (1999-2009) with follow-up telephone questionnaire of patients with C/SC fractures. Collected data included age, gender, unilateral vs bilateral C/SC fracture, presence of concomitant fracture, velocity of injury, and treatment modality. Tertiary care children's hospital. Of 164 patients with mandibular fractures, 83 (50.6%) had C/SC fractures, of which 45 (54.2%) completed the questionnaire. Helkimo Anamnestic Dysfunction Index (A(i)) quantification of TMJ dysfunction after C/SC fracture and treatment modality of C/SC fractures. Of the 164 patients, 122 (74.4%) were male (median age, 10.4 years; age range, 0.6-19.0 years). Of the 83 patients with C/SC fractures, 61 (73.5%) were male (median age, 9.1 years; age range, 1.1-18.7 years); 66 (79.5%) had unilateral fractures and 17 (20.5%) had bilateral fractures. The A(i) distribution of the 45 patients who completed the questionnaire was as follows: 15 (33.3%) none, 6 (13.3%) mild, and 24 (53.3%) severe. Females have more severe dysfunction than do males (95% confidence interval, 1.6-140.0; P = .02). No other significant predictors of treatment modality or TMJ dysfunction were identified. Patients with bilateral fracture are 8.1 times (95% confidence interval, 1.0-66.1 times; P = .05) more likely to have closed reduction than are those with unilateral fracture. This is one of the largest series of pediatric C/SC fractures reported in the recent literature. Findings are significant for increased severity of TMJ dysfunction in females and higher incidence of closed reduction in patients with bilateral C/SC fracture.

Determination of confidence limits for experiments with low numbers of counts. [Poisson-distributed photon counts from astrophysical sources

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kraft, Ralph P.; Burrows, David N.; Nousek, John A.

1991-01-01

Two different methods, classical and Bayesian, for determining confidence intervals involving Poisson-distributed data are compared. Particular consideration is given to cases where the number of counts observed is small and is comparable to the mean number of background counts. Reasons for preferring the Bayesian over the classical method are given. Tables of confidence limits calculated by the Bayesian method are provided for quick reference.

Parents' obesity-related behavior and confidence to support behavioral change in their obese child: data from the STAR study.

PubMed

Arsenault, Lisa N; Xu, Kathleen; Taveras, Elsie M; Hacker, Karen A

2014-01-01

Successful childhood obesity interventions frequently focus on behavioral modification and involve parents or family members. Parental confidence in supporting behavior change may be an element of successful family-based prevention efforts. We aimed to determine whether parents' own obesity-related behaviors were related to their confidence in supporting their child's achievement of obesity-related behavioral goals. Cross-sectional analyses of data collected at baseline of a randomized control trial testing a treatment intervention for obese children (n = 787) in primary care settings (n = 14). Five obesity-related behaviors (physical activity, screen time, sugar-sweetened beverage, sleep duration, fast food) were self-reported by parents for themselves and their child. Behaviors were dichotomized on the basis of achievement of behavioral goals. Five confidence questions asked how confident the parent was in helping their child achieve each goal. Logistic regression modeling high confidence was conducted with goal achievement and demographics as independent variables. Parents achieving physical activity or sleep duration goals were significantly more likely to be highly confident in supporting their child's achievement of those goals (physical activity, odds ratio 1.76; 95% confidence interval 1.19-2.60; sleep, odds ratio 1.74; 95% confidence interval 1.09-2.79) independent of sociodemographic variables and child's current behavior. Parental achievements of TV watching and fast food goals were also associated with confidence, but significance was attenuated after child's behavior was included in models. Parents' own obesity-related behaviors are factors that may affect their confidence to support their child's behavior change. Providers seeking to prevent childhood obesity should address parent/family behaviors as part of their obesity prevention strategies. Copyright © 2014 Academic Pediatric Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Rotator Interval - A Link Between Anatomy and Ultrasound.

PubMed

Tamborrini, Giorgio; Möller, Ingrid; Bong, David; Miguel, Maribel; Marx, Christian; Müller, Andreas Marc; Müller-Gerbl, Magdalena

2017-06-01

Shoulder pathologies of the rotator cuff of the shoulder are common in clinical practice. The focus of this pictorial essay is to discuss the anatomical details of the rotator interval of the shoulder, correlate the anatomy with normal ultrasound images and present selected pathologies. We focus on the imaging of the rotator interval that is actually the anterosuperior aspect of the glenohumeral joint capsule that is reinforced externally by the coracohumeral ligament, internally by the superior glenohumeral ligament and capsular fibers which blend together and insert medially and laterally to the bicipital groove. In this article we demonstrate the capability of high-resolution musculoskeletal ultrasound to visualize the detailed anatomy of the rotator interval. MSUS has a higher spatial resolution than other imaging techniques and the ability to examine these structures dynamically and to utilize the probe for precise anatomic localization of the patient's pain by sono-palpation.

Optimal Measurement Interval for Emergency Department Crowding Estimation Tools.

PubMed

Wang, Hao; Ojha, Rohit P; Robinson, Richard D; Jackson, Bradford E; Shaikh, Sajid A; Cowden, Chad D; Shyamanand, Rath; Leuck, JoAnna; Schrader, Chet D; Zenarosa, Nestor R

2017-11-01

Emergency department (ED) crowding is a barrier to timely care. Several crowding estimation tools have been developed to facilitate early identification of and intervention for crowding. Nevertheless, the ideal frequency is unclear for measuring ED crowding by using these tools. Short intervals may be resource intensive, whereas long ones may not be suitable for early identification. Therefore, we aim to assess whether outcomes vary by measurement interval for 4 crowding estimation tools. Our eligible population included all patients between July 1, 2015, and June 30, 2016, who were admitted to the JPS Health Network ED, which serves an urban population. We generated 1-, 2-, 3-, and 4-hour ED crowding scores for each patient, using 4 crowding estimation tools (National Emergency Department Overcrowding Scale [NEDOCS], Severely Overcrowded, Overcrowded, and Not Overcrowded Estimation Tool [SONET], Emergency Department Work Index [EDWIN], and ED Occupancy Rate). Our outcomes of interest included ED length of stay (minutes) and left without being seen or eloped within 4 hours. We used accelerated failure time models to estimate interval-specific time ratios and corresponding 95% confidence limits for length of stay, in which the 1-hour interval was the reference. In addition, we used binomial regression with a log link to estimate risk ratios (RRs) and corresponding confidence limit for left without being seen. Our study population comprised 117,442 patients. The time ratios for length of stay were similar across intervals for each crowding estimation tool (time ratio=1.37 to 1.30 for NEDOCS, 1.44 to 1.37 for SONET, 1.32 to 1.27 for EDWIN, and 1.28 to 1.23 for ED Occupancy Rate). The RRs of left without being seen differences were also similar across intervals for each tool (RR=2.92 to 2.56 for NEDOCS, 3.61 to 3.36 for SONET, 2.65 to 2.40 for EDWIN, and 2.44 to 2.14 for ED Occupancy Rate). Our findings suggest limited variation in length of stay or left without being

Solar Alpha Rotary Joint (SARJ) Lubrication Interval Test and Evaluation (LITE). Post-Test Grease Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Golden, Johnny L.; Martinez, James E.; Devivar, Rodrigo V.

2015-01-01

The Solar Alpha Rotary Joint (SARJ) is a mechanism of the International Space Station (ISS) that orients the solar power generating arrays toward the sun as the ISS orbits our planet. The orientation with the sun must be maintained to fully charge the ISS batteries and maintain all the other ISS electrical systems operating properly. In 2007, just a few months after full deployment, the starboard SARJ developed anomalies that warranted a full investigation including ISS Extravehicular Activity (EVA). The EVA uncovered unexpected debris that was due to degradation of a nitride layer on the SARJ bearing race. ISS personnel identified the failure root-cause and applied an aerospace grease to lubricate the area associated with the anomaly. The corrective action allowed the starboard SARJ to continue operating within the specified engineering parameters. The SARJ LITE (Lubrication Interval Test and Evaluation) program was initiated by NASA, Lockheed Martin, and Boeing to simulate the operation of the ISS SARJ for an extended time. The hardware was designed to test and evaluate the exact material components used aboard the ISS SARJ, but in a controlled area where engineers could continuously monitor the performance. After running the SARJ LITE test for an equivalent of 36+ years of continuous use, the test was opened to evaluate the metallography and lubrication. We have sampled the SARJ LITE rollers and plate to fully assess the grease used for lubrication. Chemical and thermal analysis of these samples has generated information that has allowed us to assess the location, migration, and current condition of the grease. The collective information will be key toward understanding and circumventing any performance deviations involving the ISS SARJ in the years to come.

Identifying the bad guy in a lineup using confidence judgments under deadline pressure.

PubMed

Brewer, Neil; Weber, Nathan; Wootton, David; Lindsay, D Stephen

2012-10-01

Eyewitness-identification tests often culminate in witnesses not picking the culprit or identifying innocent suspects. We tested a radical alternative to the traditional lineup procedure used in such tests. Rather than making a positive identification, witnesses made confidence judgments under a short deadline about whether each lineup member was the culprit. We compared this deadline procedure with the traditional sequential-lineup procedure in three experiments with retention intervals ranging from 5 min to 1 week. A classification algorithm that identified confidence criteria that optimally discriminated accurate from inaccurate decisions revealed that decision accuracy was 24% to 66% higher under the deadline procedure than under the traditional procedure. Confidence profiles across lineup stimuli were more informative than were identification decisions about the likelihood that an individual witness recognized the culprit or correctly recognized that the culprit was not present. Large differences between the maximum and the next-highest confidence value signaled very high accuracy. Future support for this procedure across varied conditions would highlight a viable alternative to the problematic lineup procedures that have traditionally been used by law enforcement.

Association of Beta-Blocker Use With Less Prevalent Joint Pain and Lower Opioid Requirement in People With Osteoarthritis.

PubMed

Valdes, Ana M; Abhishek, Abhishek; Muir, Kenneth; Zhang, Weiya; Maciewicz, Rose A; Doherty, Michael

2017-07-01

Recent findings suggest that β-adrenergic blockers have antinociceptive properties. The aim of this study was to compare levels of large-joint pain between those taking adrenergic blockers and those taking other antihypertensive medications. Data from the Genetics of Osteoarthritis and Lifestyle (GOAL) study, a secondary-care cohort of osteoarthritis (OA) patients, were used. Joint pain was assessed using Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) pain scores in 873 individuals with symptomatic hip and/or knee OA and hypertension, who were taking ≥1 prescription antihypertensive medications. The association between adrenergic blocker prescription and at least moderate joint pain (WOMAC score <75) and use of prescription analgesics was examined using binary logistic regression. Analyses were adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, knee or hip OA, history of joint replacement (at other joints), anxiety, and depression. The use of β-adrenergic blockers was associated with lower WOMAC pain scores and with a lower prevalence of joint pain after adjustment for demographic variables and comorbidity (adjusted odds ratio [OR adj ] for pain 0.68 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.51, 0.92]; P < 0.011). No associations with pain were observed with use of alpha-blockers (OR adj for pain 0.94 [95% CI 0.55, 1.58]) or with any other class of antihypertensive medications. Prescription of beta-blockers was also associated negatively with opioid use (OR adj for opioids 0.73 [95% CI 0.54, 0.98]; P < 0.037) and with the use of prescription analgesics in general (OR adj for analgesics 0.74 [95% CI 0.56, 0.94]; P < 0.032). The use of beta-blockers is associated with less joint pain and a lower use of opioids and other analgesics in individuals with symptomatic large-joint OA. This observation needs to be confirmed by other studies. © 2016, American College of Rheumatology.

46 CFR 57.06-2 - Production test plate interval of testing.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... WELDING AND BRAZING Production Tests § 57.06-2 Production test plate interval of testing. (a) At least one... follows: (1) When the extent of welding on a single vessel exceeds 50 lineal feet of either or both... joint. (2) When the extent of welding on vessels welded in succession exceeds 50 lineal feet of either...

46 CFR 57.06-2 - Production test plate interval of testing.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... WELDING AND BRAZING Production Tests § 57.06-2 Production test plate interval of testing. (a) At least one... follows: (1) When the extent of welding on a single vessel exceeds 50 lineal feet of either or both... joint. (2) When the extent of welding on vessels welded in succession exceeds 50 lineal feet of either...

46 CFR 57.06-2 - Production test plate interval of testing.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... WELDING AND BRAZING Production Tests § 57.06-2 Production test plate interval of testing. (a) At least one... follows: (1) When the extent of welding on a single vessel exceeds 50 lineal feet of either or both... joint. (2) When the extent of welding on vessels welded in succession exceeds 50 lineal feet of either...

46 CFR 57.06-2 - Production test plate interval of testing.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... WELDING AND BRAZING Production Tests § 57.06-2 Production test plate interval of testing. (a) At least one... follows: (1) When the extent of welding on a single vessel exceeds 50 lineal feet of either or both... joint. (2) When the extent of welding on vessels welded in succession exceeds 50 lineal feet of either...

46 CFR 57.06-2 - Production test plate interval of testing.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... WELDING AND BRAZING Production Tests § 57.06-2 Production test plate interval of testing. (a) At least one... follows: (1) When the extent of welding on a single vessel exceeds 50 lineal feet of either or both... joint. (2) When the extent of welding on vessels welded in succession exceeds 50 lineal feet of either...

Zero- vs. one-dimensional, parametric vs. non-parametric, and confidence interval vs. hypothesis testing procedures in one-dimensional biomechanical trajectory analysis.

PubMed

Pataky, Todd C; Vanrenterghem, Jos; Robinson, Mark A

2015-05-01

Biomechanical processes are often manifested as one-dimensional (1D) trajectories. It has been shown that 1D confidence intervals (CIs) are biased when based on 0D statistical procedures, and the non-parametric 1D bootstrap CI has emerged in the Biomechanics literature as a viable solution. The primary purpose of this paper was to clarify that, for 1D biomechanics datasets, the distinction between 0D and 1D methods is much more important than the distinction between parametric and non-parametric procedures. A secondary purpose was to demonstrate that a parametric equivalent to the 1D bootstrap exists in the form of a random field theory (RFT) correction for multiple comparisons. To emphasize these points we analyzed six datasets consisting of force and kinematic trajectories in one-sample, paired, two-sample and regression designs. Results showed, first, that the 1D bootstrap and other 1D non-parametric CIs were qualitatively identical to RFT CIs, and all were very different from 0D CIs. Second, 1D parametric and 1D non-parametric hypothesis testing results were qualitatively identical for all six datasets. Last, we highlight the limitations of 1D CIs by demonstrating that they are complex, design-dependent, and thus non-generalizable. These results suggest that (i) analyses of 1D data based on 0D models of randomness are generally biased unless one explicitly identifies 0D variables before the experiment, and (ii) parametric and non-parametric 1D hypothesis testing provide an unambiguous framework for analysis when one׳s hypothesis explicitly or implicitly pertains to whole 1D trajectories. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Early medication use in new-onset rheumatoid arthritis may delay joint replacement: results of a large population-based study.

PubMed

Moura, Cristiano S; Abrahamowicz, Michal; Beauchamp, Marie-Eve; Lacaille, Diane; Wang, Yishu; Boire, Gilles; Fortin, Paul R; Bessette, Louis; Bombardier, Claire; Widdifield, Jessica; Hanly, John G; Feldman, Debbie; Maksymowych, Walter; Peschken, Christine; Barnabe, Cheryl; Edworthy, Steve; Bernatsky, Sasha

2015-08-03

Use of disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (DMARDs) in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) may prevent joint damage and potentially reduce joint replacement surgeries. We assessed the association between RA drug use and joint replacement in Quebec, Canada. A cohort of new-onset RA patients was identified from Quebec's physician billing and hospitalization databases from 2002-2011. The outcome was defined using procedure codes submitted by orthopedic surgeons. Medication use was obtained from pharmacy databases. We used alternative Cox regression models with time-dependent variables measuring the cumulative effects of past use during different time windows (one model focussing on the first year after cohort entry) for methotrexate (MTX), and other DMARDs. Models were adjusted for baseline sociodemographics, co-morbidity and prior health service use, time-dependent cumulative use of other drugs (anti-tumor necrosis factor [anti-TNF] agents, other biologics, cyclooxygenase-2 inhibitors [COXIBs], nonselective nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drugs [NSAIDs], and systemic steroids), and markers of disease severity. During follow-up, 608 joint replacements occurred among 11,333 patients (median follow-up: 4.6 years). The best-fitting model relied on the cumulative early use (within the first year after cohort entry) of MTX and of other DMARDs, with an interaction between MTX and other DMARDs. In this model, greater exposure within the first year, to either MTX (adjusted hazard ratio, HR = 0.95 per 1 month, 95% confidence interval, 95% CI 0.93-0.97) or other DMARDs (HR = 0.97, 95% CI 0.95-0.99) was associated with longer time to joint replacement. Our results suggest that longer exposure to either methotrexate (MTX) or other DMARDs within the first year after RA diagnosis is associated with longer time to joint replacement surgery.

Synovial Fluid α-Defensin as a Biomarker for Peri-Prosthetic Joint Infection: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Li, Bin; Chen, Fei; Liu, Yi; Xu, Guokang

Total joint arthroplasty (TJA) has been one of the most beneficial interventions for treating patients suffering from joint disorders. However, peri-prosthetic joint infection (PJI) is a serious complication that often accompanies TJA and the diagnosis of PJI is remains difficult. Questions remain regarding whether certain biomarkers can be valuable in the diagnosis of PJI. We conducted our systematic review by searching PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, the Cochrane Library, and Science Direct with the key words "periprosthetic joint infection," "synovial fluid," and "α-defensin." Studies that provided sufficient data to construct 2 × 2 contingency tables were chosen based on inclusion and exclusion criteria. The quality of included studies was assessed according to the revised Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS-2) criteria. The pooled sensitivity, specificity, and diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) were calculated for the included studies. The summary receiver operating characteristic (SROC) curve and the area under the summary receiver operating characteristic (AUSROC) were used to evaluate the overall diagnostic performance. Eight studies were included in this systematic review. Among them four articles were included in meta-analysis. A total of 421 participants were studied in the meta-analysis. The pooled sensitivity, specificity, and DOR were 0.98 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.94-1.00), 0.97 (95% CI: 0.95-0.99), and 1095.49 (95% CI: 283.68.58-4230.45), respectively. The AUSROC was 0.9949 (standard error [SE] 0.0095). Synovial fluid α-defensin is a biomarker of high sensitivity and specificity for the diagnosis of PJI.

Joint Analysis of the DRD5 Marker Concludes Association with Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder Confined to the Predominantly Inattentive and Combined Subtypes

PubMed Central

Lowe, Naomi; Kirley, Aiveen; Hawi, Ziarih; Sham, Pak; Wickham, Harvey; Kratochvil, Christopher J.; Smith, Shelley D.; Lee, Saretta Y.; Levy, Florence; Kent, Lindsey; Middle, Fiona; Rohde, Luis A.; Roman, Tatiana; Tahir, Eda; Yazgan, Yanke; Asherson, Philip; Mill, Jonathan; Thapar, Anita; Payton, Antony; Todd, Richard D.; Stephens, Timothy; Ebstein, Richard P.; Manor, Iris; Barr, Cathy L.; Wigg, Karen G.; Sinke, Richard J.; Buitelaar, Jan K.; Smalley, Susan L.; Nelson, Stan F.; Biederman, Joseph; Faraone, Stephen V.; Gill, Michael

2004-01-01

Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is a highly heritable, heterogeneous disorder of early onset, consisting of a triad of symptoms: inattention, hyperactivity, and impulsivity. The disorder has a significant genetic component, and theories of etiology include abnormalities in the dopaminergic system, with DRD4, DAT1, SNAP25, and DRD5 being implicated as major susceptibility genes. An initial report of association between ADHD and the common 148-bp allele of a microsatellite marker located 18.5 kb from the DRD5 gene has been followed by several studies showing nonsignificant trends toward association with the same allele. To establish the postulated association of the (CA)n repeat with ADHD, we collected genotypic information from 14 independent samples of probands and their parents, analyzed them individually and, in the absence of heterogeneity, analyzed them as a joint sample. The joint analysis showed association with the DRD5 locus (P=.00005; odds ratio 1.24; 95% confidence interval 1.12–1.38). This association appears to be confined to the predominantly inattentive and combined clinical subtypes. PMID:14732906

Functional outcome from sacroiliac joint prolotherapy in patients with sacroiliac joint instability.

PubMed

Hoffman, Martin D; Agnish, Vikram

2018-04-01

Examine the effectiveness of sacroiliac (SI) joint prolotherapy for SI joint instability, and characterize the patients most likely to benefit from this treatment. Retrospective cohort study. Department of Veterans Affairs outpatient physical medicine clinic. Patients referred for low back pain and diagnosed with SI joint instability received a series of three SI joint prolotherapy injections (15% dextrose in lidocaine) at approximately a one-month interval. The outcome of those completing treatment was retrospectively examined, and characteristics were compared between those with at least a minimum clinically important improvement and those without improvement. Patients completed the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) before treatment was initiated, immediately preceding each prolotherapy injection, and at 3-4 month follow-up. Of 103 treated patients returning for post-treatment follow-up at a median of 117 days, 24 (23%) showed a minimum clinically important improvement despite a median of 2 years with low back pain and a mean (±SD) pre-intervention ODI of 54 ± 15 points. Much of the improvement was evident after the initial prolotherapy injection, and a 15-point improvement in ODI prior to the second prolotherapy injection had a sensitivity of 92% and specificity of 80% for determining which patients would improve. A satisfactory proportion of patients with symptomatic SI joint instability as an etiology of low back pain can have clinically meaningful functional gains with prolotherapy treatment. The patients who are not likely to improve with prolotherapy are generally evident by lack of improvement following the initial prolotherapy injection. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Responsibility and confidence

PubMed Central

Austin, Zubin

2013-01-01

Background: Despite the changing role of the pharmacist in patient-centred practice, pharmacists anecdotally reported little confidence in their clinical decision-making skills and do not feel responsible for their patients. Observational findings have suggested these trends within the profession, but there is a paucity of evidence to explain why. We conducted an exploratory study with an objective to identify reasons for the lack of responsibility and/or confidence in various pharmacy practice settings. Methods: Pharmacist interviews were conducted via written response, face-to-face or telephone. Seven questions were asked on the topic of responsibility and confidence as it applies to pharmacy practice and how pharmacists think these themes differ in medicine. Interview transcripts were analyzed and divided by common theme. Quotations to support these themes are presented. Results: Twenty-nine pharmacists were asked to participate, and 18 responded (62% response rate). From these interviews, 6 themes were identified as barriers to confidence and responsibility: hierarchy of the medical system, role definitions, evolution of responsibility, ownership of decisions for confidence building, quality and consequences of mentorship and personality traits upon admission. Discussion: We identified 6 potential barriers to the development of pharmacists’ self-confidence and responsibility. These findings have practical applicability for educational research, future curriculum changes, experiential learning structure and pharmacy practice. Due to bias and the limitations of this form of exploratory research and small sample size, evidence should be interpreted cautiously. Conclusion: Pharmacists feel neither responsible nor confident for their clinical decisions due to social, educational, experiential and personal reasons. Can Pharm J 2013;146:155-161. PMID:23795200

Radiographic failure and rates of re-operation after acromioclavicular joint reconstruction: a comparison of surgical techniques.

PubMed

Spencer, H T; Hsu, L; Sodl, J; Arianjam, A; Yian, E H

2016-04-01

To compare radiographic failure and re-operation rates of anatomical coracoclavicular (CC) ligament reconstructional techniques with non-anatomical techniques after chronic high grade acromioclavicular (AC) joint injuries. We reviewed chronic AC joint reconstructions within a region-wide healthcare system to identify surgical technique, complications, radiographic failure and re-operations. Procedures fell into four categories: (1) modified Weaver-Dunn, (2) allograft fixed through coracoid and clavicular tunnels, (3) allograft loop coracoclavicular fixation, and (4) combined allograft loop and synthetic cortical button fixation. Among 167 patients (mean age 38.1 years, (standard deviation (sd) 14.7) treated at least a four week interval after injury, 154 had post-operative radiographs available for analysis. Radiographic failure occurred in 33/154 cases (21.4%), with the lowest rate in Technique 4 (2/42 4.8%, p = 0.001). Half the failures occurred by six weeks, and the Kaplan-Meier survivorship at 24 months was 94.4% (95% confidence interval (CI) 79.6 to 98.6) for Technique 4 and 69.9% (95% CI 59.4 to 78.3) for the other techniques when combined. In multivariable survival analysis, Technique 4 had better survival than other techniques (Hazard Ratio 0.162, 95% CI 0.039 to 0.068, p = 0.013). Among 155 patients with a minimum of six months post-operative insurance coverage, re-operation occurred in 9.7% (15 patients). However, in multivariable logistic regression, Technique 4 did not reach a statistically significant lower risk for re-operation (odds ratio 0.254, 95% CI 0.05 to 1.3, p = 0.11). In this retrospective series, anatomical CC ligament reconstruction using combined synthetic cortical button and allograft loop fixation had the lowest rate of radiographic failure. Anatomical coracoclavicular ligament reconstruction using combined synthetic cortical button and allograft loop fixation had the lowest rate of radiographic failure. ©2016 The British Editorial

The Rotator Interval – A Link Between Anatomy and Ultrasound

PubMed Central

Tamborrini, Giorgio; Möller, Ingrid; Bong, David; Miguel, Maribel; Marx, Christian; Müller, Andreas Marc; Müller-Gerbl, Magdalena

2017-01-01

Shoulder pathologies of the rotator cuff of the shoulder are common in clinical practice. The focus of this pictorial essay is to discuss the anatomical details of the rotator interval of the shoulder, correlate the anatomy with normal ultrasound images and present selected pathologies. We focus on the imaging of the rotator interval that is actually the anterosuperior aspect of the glenohumeral joint capsule that is reinforced externally by the coracohumeral ligament, internally by the superior glenohumeral ligament and capsular fibers which blend together and insert medially and laterally to the bicipital groove. In this article we demonstrate the capability of high-resolution musculoskeletal ultrasound to visualize the detailed anatomy of the rotator interval. MSUS has a higher spatial resolution than other imaging techniques and the ability to examine these structures dynamically and to utilize the probe for precise anatomic localization of the patient’s pain by sono-palpation. PMID:28845477

Re-evaluation of link between interpregnancy interval and adverse birth outcomes: retrospective cohort study matching two intervals per mother

PubMed Central

Pereira, Gavin; Jacoby, Peter; de Klerk, Nicholas; Stanley, Fiona J

2014-01-01

Objective To re-evaluate the causal effect of interpregnancy interval on adverse birth outcomes, on the basis that previous studies relying on between mother comparisons may have inadequately adjusted for confounding by maternal risk factors. Design Retrospective cohort study using conditional logistic regression (matching two intervals per mother so each mother acts as her own control) to model the incidence of adverse birth outcomes as a function of interpregnancy interval; additional unconditional logistic regression with adjustment for confounders enabled comparison with the unmatched design of previous studies. Setting Perth, Western Australia, 1980-2010. Participants 40 441 mothers who each delivered three liveborn singleton neonates. Main outcome measures Preterm birth (<37 weeks), small for gestational age birth (<10th centile of birth weight by sex and gestational age), and low birth weight (<2500 g). Results Within mother analysis of interpregnancy intervals indicated a much weaker effect of short intervals on the odds of preterm birth and low birth weight compared with estimates generated using a traditional between mother analysis. The traditional unmatched design estimated an adjusted odds ratio for an interpregnancy interval of 0-5 months (relative to the reference category of 18-23 months) of 1.41 (95% confidence interval 1.31 to 1.51) for preterm birth, 1.26 (1.15 to 1.37) for low birth weight, and 0.98 (0.92 to 1.06) for small for gestational age birth. In comparison, the matched design showed a much weaker effect of short interpregnancy interval on preterm birth (odds ratio 1.07, 0.86 to 1.34) and low birth weight (1.03, 0.79 to 1.34), and the effect for small for gestational age birth remained small (1.08, 0.87 to 1.34). Both the unmatched and matched models estimated a high odds of small for gestational age birth and low birth weight for long interpregnancy intervals (longer than 59 months), but the estimated effect of long interpregnancy

Assessing Interval Estimation Methods for Hill Model ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Hill model of concentration-response is ubiquitous in toxicology, perhaps because its parameters directly relate to biologically significant metrics of toxicity such as efficacy and potency. Point estimates of these parameters obtained through least squares regression or maximum likelihood are commonly used in high-throughput risk assessment, but such estimates typically fail to include reliable information concerning confidence in (or precision of) the estimates. To address this issue, we examined methods for assessing uncertainty in Hill model parameter estimates derived from concentration-response data. In particular, using a sample of ToxCast concentration-response data sets, we applied four methods for obtaining interval estimates that are based on asymptotic theory, bootstrapping (two varieties), and Bayesian parameter estimation, and then compared the results. These interval estimation methods generally did not agree, so we devised a simulation study to assess their relative performance. We generated simulated data by constructing four statistical error models capable of producing concentration-response data sets comparable to those observed in ToxCast. We then applied the four interval estimation methods to the simulated data and compared the actual coverage of the interval estimates to the nominal coverage (e.g., 95%) in order to quantify performance of each of the methods in a variety of cases (i.e., different values of the true Hill model paramet

Comparing interval estimates for small sample ordinal CFA models

PubMed Central

Natesan, Prathiba

2015-01-01

Robust maximum likelihood (RML) and asymptotically generalized least squares (AGLS) methods have been recommended for fitting ordinal structural equation models. Studies show that some of these methods underestimate standard errors. However, these studies have not investigated the coverage and bias of interval estimates. An estimate with a reasonable standard error could still be severely biased. This can only be known by systematically investigating the interval estimates. The present study compares Bayesian, RML, and AGLS interval estimates of factor correlations in ordinal confirmatory factor analysis models (CFA) for small sample data. Six sample sizes, 3 factor correlations, and 2 factor score distributions (multivariate normal and multivariate mildly skewed) were studied. Two Bayesian prior specifications, informative and relatively less informative were studied. Undercoverage of confidence intervals and underestimation of standard errors was common in non-Bayesian methods. Underestimated standard errors may lead to inflated Type-I error rates. Non-Bayesian intervals were more positive biased than negatively biased, that is, most intervals that did not contain the true value were greater than the true value. Some non-Bayesian methods had non-converging and inadmissible solutions for small samples and non-normal data. Bayesian empirical standard error estimates for informative and relatively less informative priors were closer to the average standard errors of the estimates. The coverage of Bayesian credibility intervals was closer to what was expected with overcoverage in a few cases. Although some Bayesian credibility intervals were wider, they reflected the nature of statistical uncertainty that comes with the data (e.g., small sample). Bayesian point estimates were also more accurate than non-Bayesian estimates. The results illustrate the importance of analyzing coverage and bias of interval estimates, and how ignoring interval estimates can be misleading

Comparing interval estimates for small sample ordinal CFA models.

PubMed

Natesan, Prathiba

2015-01-01

Robust maximum likelihood (RML) and asymptotically generalized least squares (AGLS) methods have been recommended for fitting ordinal structural equation models. Studies show that some of these methods underestimate standard errors. However, these studies have not investigated the coverage and bias of interval estimates. An estimate with a reasonable standard error could still be severely biased. This can only be known by systematically investigating the interval estimates. The present study compares Bayesian, RML, and AGLS interval estimates of factor correlations in ordinal confirmatory factor analysis models (CFA) for small sample data. Six sample sizes, 3 factor correlations, and 2 factor score distributions (multivariate normal and multivariate mildly skewed) were studied. Two Bayesian prior specifications, informative and relatively less informative were studied. Undercoverage of confidence intervals and underestimation of standard errors was common in non-Bayesian methods. Underestimated standard errors may lead to inflated Type-I error rates. Non-Bayesian intervals were more positive biased than negatively biased, that is, most intervals that did not contain the true value were greater than the true value. Some non-Bayesian methods had non-converging and inadmissible solutions for small samples and non-normal data. Bayesian empirical standard error estimates for informative and relatively less informative priors were closer to the average standard errors of the estimates. The coverage of Bayesian credibility intervals was closer to what was expected with overcoverage in a few cases. Although some Bayesian credibility intervals were wider, they reflected the nature of statistical uncertainty that comes with the data (e.g., small sample). Bayesian point estimates were also more accurate than non-Bayesian estimates. The results illustrate the importance of analyzing coverage and bias of interval estimates, and how ignoring interval estimates can be misleading

ESTABLISHMENT OF A FIBRINOGEN REFERENCE INTERVAL IN ORNATE BOX TURTLES (TERRAPENE ORNATA ORNATA).

PubMed

Parkinson, Lily; Olea-Popelka, Francisco; Klaphake, Eric; Dadone, Liza; Johnston, Matthew

2016-09-01

This study sought to establish a reference interval for fibrinogen in healthy ornate box turtles ( Terrapene ornata ornata). A total of 48 turtles were enrolled, with 42 turtles deemed to be noninflammatory and thus fitting the inclusion criteria and utilized to estimate a fibrinogen reference interval. Turtles were excluded based upon physical examination and blood work abnormalities. A Shapiro-Wilk normality test indicated that the noninflammatory turtle fibrinogen values were normally distributed (Gaussian distribution) with an average of 108 mg/dl and a 95% confidence interval of the mean of 97.9-117 mg/dl. Those turtles excluded from the reference interval because of abnormalities affecting their health had significantly different fibrinogen values (P = 0.313). A reference interval for healthy ornate box turtles was calculated. Further investigation into the utility of fibrinogen measurement for clinical usage in ornate box turtles is warranted.

Effects of High-Intensity Interval Training on Aerobic Capacity in Cardiac Patients: A Systematic Review with Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Xie, Bin; Yan, Xianfeng

2017-01-01

Purpose. The aim of this study was to compare the effects of high-intensity interval training (INTERVAL) and moderate-intensity continuous training (CONTINUOUS) on aerobic capacity in cardiac patients. Methods. A meta-analysis identified by searching the PubMed, Cochrane Library, EMBASE, and Web of Science databases from inception through December 2016 compared the effects of INTERVAL and CONTINUOUS among cardiac patients. Results. Twenty-one studies involving 736 participants with cardiac diseases were included. Compared with CONTINUOUS, INTERVAL was associated with greater improvement in peak VO2 (mean difference 1.76 mL/kg/min, 95% confidence interval 1.06 to 2.46 mL/kg/min, p < 0.001) and VO2 at AT (mean difference 0.90 mL/kg/min, 95% confidence interval 0.0 to 1.72 mL/kg/min, p = 0.03). No significant difference between the INTERVAL and CONTINUOUS groups was observed in terms of peak heart rate, peak minute ventilation, VE/VCO2 slope and respiratory exchange ratio, body mass, systolic or diastolic blood pressure, triglyceride or low- or high-density lipoprotein cholesterol level, flow-mediated dilation, or left ventricular ejection fraction. Conclusions. This study showed that INTERVAL improves aerobic capacity more effectively than does CONTINUOUS in cardiac patients. Further studies with larger samples are needed to confirm our observations. PMID:28386556

Exact intervals and tests for median when one sample value possibly an outliner

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keller, G. J.; Walsh, J. E.

1973-01-01

Available are independent observations (continuous data) that are believed to be a random sample. Desired are distribution-free confidence intervals and significance tests for the population median. However, there is the possibility that either the smallest or the largest observation is an outlier. Then, use of a procedure for rejection of an outlying observation might seem appropriate. Such a procedure would consider that two alternative situations are possible and would select one of them. Either (1) the n observations are truly a random sample, or (2) an outlier exists and its removal leaves a random sample of size n-1. For either situation, confidence intervals and tests are desired for the median of the population yielding the random sample. Unfortunately, satisfactory rejection procedures of a distribution-free nature do not seem to be available. Moreover, all rejection procedures impose undesirable conditional effects on the observations, and also, can select the wrong one of the two above situations. It is found that two-sided intervals and tests based on two symmetrically located order statistics (not the largest and smallest) of the n observations have this property.

Effect Sizes and their Intervals: The Two-Level Repeated Measures Case

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Algina, James; Keselman, H. J.; Penfield, Randall D.

2005-01-01

Probability coverage for eight different confidence intervals (CIs) of measures of effect size (ES) in a two-level repeated measures design was investigated. The CIs and measures of ES differed with regard to whether they used least squares or robust estimates of central tendency and variability, whether the end critical points of the interval…

How do gait frequency and serum-replacement interval affect polyethylene wear in knee-wear simulator tests?

PubMed

Reinders, Jörn; Sonntag, Robert; Kretzer, Jan Philippe

2014-11-01

Polyethylene wear (PE) is known to be a limiting factor in total joint replacements. However, a standardized wear test (e.g. ISO standard) can only replicate the complex in vivo loading condition in a simplified form. In this study, two different parameters were analyzed: (a) Bovine serum, as a substitute for synovial fluid, is typically replaced every 500,000 cycles. However, a continuous regeneration takes place in vivo. How does serum-replacement interval affect the wear rate of total knee replacements? (b) Patients with an artificial joint show reduced gait frequencies compared to standardized testing. What is the influence of a reduced frequency? Three knee wear tests were run: (a) reference test (ISO), (b) testing with a shortened lubricant replacement interval, (c) testing with reduced frequency. The wear behavior was determined based on gravimetric measurements and wear particle analysis. The results showed that the reduced test frequency only had a small effect on wear behavior. Testing with 1 Hz frequency is therefore a valid method for wear testing. However, testing with a shortened replacement interval nearly doubled the wear rate. Wear particle analysis revealed only small differences in wear particle size between the different tests. Wear particles were not linearly released within one replacement interval. The ISO standard should be revised to address the marked effects of lubricant replacement interval on wear rate.

Fall Risk Score at the Time of Discharge Predicts Readmission Following Total Joint Arthroplasty.

PubMed

Ravi, Bheeshma; Nan, Zhang; Schwartz, Adam J; Clarke, Henry D

2017-07-01

Readmission among Medicare recipients is a leading driver of healthcare expenditure. To date, most predictive tools are too coarse for direct clinical application. Our objective in this study is to determine if a pre-existing tool to identify patients at increased risk for inpatient falls, the Hendrich Fall Risk Score, could be used to accurately identify Medicare patients at increased risk for readmission following arthroplasty, regardless of whether the readmission was due to a fall. This study is a retrospective cohort study. We identified 2437 Medicare patients who underwent a primary elective total joint arthroplasty (TJA) of the hip or knee for osteoarthritis between 2011 and 2014. The Hendrich Fall Risk score was recorded for each patient preoperatively and postoperatively. Our main outcome measure was hospital readmission within 30 days of discharge. Of 2437 eligible TJA recipients, there were 226 (9.3%) patients who had a score ≥6. These patients were more likely to have an unplanned readmission (unadjusted odds ratio 2.84, 95% confidence interval 1.70-4.76, P < .0001), were more likely to have a length of stay >3 days (49.6% vs 36.6%, P = .0001), and were less likely to be sent home after discharge (20.8% vs 35.8%, P < .0001). The effect of a score ≥6 on readmission remained significant (adjusted odds ratio 2.44, 95% confidence interval 1.44-4.13, P = .0009) after controlling for age, paralysis, and the presence of a major psychiatric disorder. Increased Hendrich fall risk score after TJA is strongly associated with unplanned readmission. Application of this tool will allow hospitals to identify these patients and plan their discharge. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

We will be champions: Leaders' confidence in 'us' inspires team members' team confidence and performance.

PubMed

Fransen, K; Steffens, N K; Haslam, S A; Vanbeselaere, N; Vande Broek, G; Boen, F

2016-12-01

The present research examines the impact of leaders' confidence in their team on the team confidence and performance of their teammates. In an experiment involving newly assembled soccer teams, we manipulated the team confidence expressed by the team leader (high vs neutral vs low) and assessed team members' responses and performance as they unfolded during a competition (i.e., in a first baseline session and a second test session). Our findings pointed to team confidence contagion such that when the leader had expressed high (rather than neutral or low) team confidence, team members perceived their team to be more efficacious and were more confident in the team's ability to win. Moreover, leaders' team confidence affected individual and team performance such that teams led by a highly confident leader performed better than those led by a less confident leader. Finally, the results supported a hypothesized mediational model in showing that the effect of leaders' confidence on team members' team confidence and performance was mediated by the leader's perceived identity leadership and members' team identification. In conclusion, the findings of this experiment suggest that leaders' team confidence can enhance members' team confidence and performance by fostering members' identification with the team. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Effectiveness of Foot Orthoses Versus Rocker-Sole Footwear for First Metatarsophalangeal Joint Osteoarthritis: Randomized Trial.

PubMed

Menz, Hylton B; Auhl, Maria; Tan, Jade M; Levinger, Pazit; Roddy, Edward; Munteanu, Shannon E

2016-05-01

To compare the effectiveness of prefabricated foot orthoses to rocker-sole footwear in reducing foot pain in people with first metatarsophalangeal (MTP) joint osteoarthritis (OA). Participants (n = 102) with first MTP joint OA were randomly allocated to receive individualized, prefabricated foot orthoses or rocker-sole footwear. The primary outcome measure was the pain subscale on the Foot Health Status Questionnaire (FHSQ) at 12 weeks. Secondary outcome measures included the function, footwear, and general foot health subscales of the FHSQ; the Foot Function Index; severity of pain and stiffness at the first MTP joint; perception of global improvement; general health status; use of rescue medication and co-interventions to relieve pain; physical activity; and the frequency of self-reported adverse events. The FHSQ pain subscale scores improved in both groups, but no statistically significant difference between the groups was observed (adjusted mean difference 2.05 points, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] -3.61, 7.71; P = 0.477). However, the footwear group exhibited lower adherence (mean ± SD total hours worn 287 ± 193 versus 448 ± 234; P < 0.001), were less likely to report global improvement in symptoms (39% versus 62%; relative risk [RR] 0.63, 95% CI 0.41, 0.99; P = 0.043), and were more likely to experience adverse events (39% versus 16%; RR 2.47, 95% CI 1.12, 5.44; P = 0.024) compared to the orthoses group. Prefabricated foot orthoses and rocker-sole footwear are similarly effective at reducing foot pain in people with first MTP joint OA. However, prefabricated foot orthoses may be the intervention of choice due to greater adherence and fewer associated adverse events. © 2016 The Authors. Arthritis Care & Research published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of the American College of Rheumatology.

Effectiveness of Foot Orthoses Versus Rocker‐Sole Footwear for First Metatarsophalangeal Joint Osteoarthritis: Randomized Trial

PubMed Central

Auhl, Maria; Tan, Jade M.; Levinger, Pazit; Roddy, Edward; Munteanu, Shannon E.

2016-01-01

Objective To compare the effectiveness of prefabricated foot orthoses to rocker‐sole footwear in reducing foot pain in people with first metatarsophalangeal (MTP) joint osteoarthritis (OA). Methods Participants (n = 102) with first MTP joint OA were randomly allocated to receive individualized, prefabricated foot orthoses or rocker‐sole footwear. The primary outcome measure was the pain subscale on the Foot Health Status Questionnaire (FHSQ) at 12 weeks. Secondary outcome measures included the function, footwear, and general foot health subscales of the FHSQ; the Foot Function Index; severity of pain and stiffness at the first MTP joint; perception of global improvement; general health status; use of rescue medication and co‐interventions to relieve pain; physical activity; and the frequency of self‐reported adverse events. Results The FHSQ pain subscale scores improved in both groups, but no statistically significant difference between the groups was observed (adjusted mean difference 2.05 points, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] −3.61, 7.71; P = 0.477). However, the footwear group exhibited lower adherence (mean ± SD total hours worn 287 ± 193 versus 448 ± 234; P < 0.001), were less likely to report global improvement in symptoms (39% versus 62%; relative risk [RR] 0.63, 95% CI 0.41, 0.99; P = 0.043), and were more likely to experience adverse events (39% versus 16%; RR 2.47, 95% CI 1.12, 5.44; P = 0.024) compared to the orthoses group. Conclusion Prefabricated foot orthoses and rocker‐sole footwear are similarly effective at reducing foot pain in people with first MTP joint OA. However, prefabricated foot orthoses may be the intervention of choice due to greater adherence and fewer associated adverse events. PMID:26638878

A systematic review of minimally invasive sacroiliac joint fusion utilizing a lateral transarticular technique

PubMed Central

Heiney, Jake; Cher, Daniel

2015-01-01

Background A number of studies have been published regarding minimally invasive surgical (MIS) fusion of the sacroiliac (SI) joint using a lateral transarticular approach. Herein we report a systematic review and meta-analysis to summarize operative measures and clinical outcomes reported in published studies of MIS SI joint fusion. Methods The systematic review was done according to PRISMA standards. PubMed and EMBASE were searched using the terms sacroiliac joint AND fusion. Original peer-reviewed articles in the English language that reported clinical outcomes on at least 5 cases of MIS SI joint fusion using a lateral transarticular approach were included. Random effects meta-analysis (RMA) was performed on selected variables using the DerSimonian and Laird method, including operative measures, VAS SI joint pain ratings (0-10 scale) and Oswestry Disability Index (ODI). Mean and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated and heterogeneity was assessed. Other findings were summarized qualitatively. Results A total of 18 articles met the inclusion criteria. After accounting for overlapping cohorts, 12 unique cohorts from 4 countries were extracted for a total of 432 subjects. The RMA mean (range) was 59 minutes (27-78) for procedure time, 36.9cc (10-70) for estimated blood loss and 1.7 days (range 0-7) for length of stay (LOS). The RMA mean [95% CI] pain score dropped by 5.2 points at 6 months and 5.3 points at 12 months (baseline score of 8.1 [7.8-8.4], 12-month score of 2.7 [2.1-3.3]), and a 24-month score of 2.0(1.4-2.5). ODI decreased by 31 points at 12 months (baseline score of 56.2 [51.0-61.5], 6-month score of 30.7 [21.8-39.6], and 12-month score of 25.1 [12.3-37.9]). Some estimates showed significant variation across studies and between the types of implants used. Other reported outcomes were supportive of the positive effects of SI joint fusion. Conclusion Published studies of MIS SI joint fusion using a lateral transarticular approach confirm its

Leukocyte Esterase as a Biomarker in the Diagnosis of Periprosthetic Joint Infection.

PubMed

Wang, Chi; Li, Rui; Wang, Qi; Duan, Jinyan; Wang, Chengbin

2017-01-21

BACKGROUND Total joint arthroplasty (TJA) has been one of the most rewarding interventions for treating patients suffering from joint disorders. However, periprosthetic joint infection (PJI) is a serious complication that frequently accompanies TJA. Our study aimed to investigate the application of the leukocyte esterase (LE) strip in the diagnosis of PJI. MATERIAL AND METHODS From October 2014 to July 2015, 72 patients who had undergone joint puncture after arthroplasty in our hospital were enrolled in this trial. One drop of synovial fluid from each available patient was applied to the LE strip, and the results were observed after 1-3 min. If the color turned to dark purple, we recognized this as a positive result, while other colors were regarded as negative results. Centrifugation was used when the synovial fluid was mixed with blood. The Musculoskeletal Infection Society (MSIS) definition was used as the standard reference to identify whether PJI was found in patients or not. The results of diagnosis and LE strips test were compared, and indicators reflecting diagnostic value were calculated. Correlation of the LE data with erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), elevated C-reactive protein (CRP), synovial white blood cell (WBC) counts, and polymorphonuclear neutrophil (PMN) percentage was calculated. RESULTS By MSIS criteria, 38 patients were diagnosed with PJI and 34 patients were not infected. Two types of LE strip presented the same results with sensitivity of 84.21% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 68.75~93.98%), specificity of 97.06% (95% CI: 84.67~99.93%), positive predictive value (PPV) of 96.97% (95% CI: 84.24~99.92%), and negative predictive value (NPV) of 84.62% (95% CI: 69.47~94.14%). There were one false-positive case and six false-negative cases in this trial. There is a strong correlation between LE strip and synovial fluid PMN percentage. CONCLUSIONS The sensitivity and specificity of the LE strip in the diagnosis of PJI are quite high, which means

Exact nonparametric confidence bands for the survivor function.

PubMed

Matthews, David

2013-10-12

A method to produce exact simultaneous confidence bands for the empirical cumulative distribution function that was first described by Owen, and subsequently corrected by Jager and Wellner, is the starting point for deriving exact nonparametric confidence bands for the survivor function of any positive random variable. We invert a nonparametric likelihood test of uniformity, constructed from the Kaplan-Meier estimator of the survivor function, to obtain simultaneous lower and upper bands for the function of interest with specified global confidence level. The method involves calculating a null distribution and associated critical value for each observed sample configuration. However, Noe recursions and the Van Wijngaarden-Decker-Brent root-finding algorithm provide the necessary tools for efficient computation of these exact bounds. Various aspects of the effect of right censoring on these exact bands are investigated, using as illustrations two observational studies of survival experience among non-Hodgkin's lymphoma patients and a much larger group of subjects with advanced lung cancer enrolled in trials within the North Central Cancer Treatment Group. Monte Carlo simulations confirm the merits of the proposed method of deriving simultaneous interval estimates of the survivor function across the entire range of the observed sample. This research was supported by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC) of Canada. It was begun while the author was visiting the Department of Statistics, University of Auckland, and completed during a subsequent sojourn at the Medical Research Council Biostatistics Unit in Cambridge. The support of both institutions, in addition to that of NSERC and the University of Waterloo, is greatly appreciated.

Raising Confident Kids

MedlinePlus

... First Aid & Safety Doctors & Hospitals Videos Recipes for Kids Kids site Sitio para niños How the Body ... Videos for Educators Search English Español Raising Confident Kids KidsHealth / For Parents / Raising Confident Kids What's in ...

Efficacy of musculoskeletal manual approach in the treatment of temporomandibular joint disorder: A systematic review with meta-analysis.

PubMed

Martins, Wagner Rodrigues; Blasczyk, Juscelino Castro; Aparecida Furlan de Oliveira, Micaele; Lagôa Gonçalves, Karina Ferreira; Bonini-Rocha, Ana Clara; Dugailly, Pierre-Michel; de Oliveira, Ricardo Jacó

2016-02-01

Temporomandibular joint disorder (TMD) requires a complex diagnostic and therapeutic approach, which usually involves a multidisciplinary management. Among these treatments, musculoskeletal manual techniques are used to improve health and healing. To assess the effectiveness of musculoskeletal manual approach in temporomandibular joint disorder patients. A systematic review with meta-analysis. During August 2014 a systematic review of relevant databases (PubMed, The Cochrane Library, PEDro and ISI web of knowledge) was performed to identify controlled clinical trials without date restriction and restricted to the English language. Clinical outcomes were pain and range of motion focalized in temporomandibular joint. The mean difference (MD) or standard mean difference (SMD) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and overall effect size were calculated at every post treatment. The PEDro scale was used to demonstrate the quality of the included studies. From the 308 articles identified by the search strategy, 8 articles met the inclusion criteria. The meta-analysis showed a significant difference (p < 0.0001) and large effect on active mouth opening (SMD, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.42 to 1.25) and on pain during active mouth opening (MD, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.09 to 2.30) in favor of musculoskeletal manual techniques when compared to other conservative treatments for TMD. Musculoskeletal manual approaches are effective for treating TMD. In the short term, there is a larger effect regarding the latter when compared to other conservative treatments for TMD. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Validation of automatic joint space width measurements in hand radiographs in rheumatoid arthritis.

PubMed

Schenk, Olga; Huo, Yinghe; Vincken, Koen L; van de Laar, Mart A; Kuper, Ina H H; Slump, Kees C H; Lafeber, Floris P J G; Bernelot Moens, Hein J

2016-10-01

Computerized methods promise quick, objective, and sensitive tools to quantify progression of radiological damage in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Measurement of joint space width (JSW) in finger and wrist joints with these systems performed comparable to the Sharp-van der Heijde score (SHS). A next step toward clinical use, validation of precision and accuracy in hand joints with minimal damage, is described with a close scrutiny of sources of error. A recently developed system to measure metacarpophalangeal (MCP) and proximal interphalangeal (PIP) joints was validated in consecutive hand images of RA patients. To assess the impact of image acquisition, measurements on radiographs from a multicenter trial and from a recent prospective cohort in a single hospital were compared. Precision of the system was tested by comparing the joint space in mm in pairs of subsequent images with a short interval without progression of SHS. In case of incorrect measurements, the source of error was analyzed with a review by human experts. Accuracy was assessed by comparison with reported measurements with other systems. In the two series of radiographs, the system could automatically locate and measure 1003/1088 (92.2%) and 1143/1200 (95.3%) individual joints, respectively. In joints with a normal SHS, the average (SD) size of MCP joints was [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] in the two series of radiographs, and of PIP joints [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text]. The difference in JSW between two serial radiographs with an interval of 6 to 12 months and unchanged SHS was [Formula: see text], indicating very good precision. Errors occurred more often in radiographs from the multicenter cohort than in a more recent series from a single hospital. Detailed analysis of the 55/1125 (4.9%) measurements that had a discrepant paired measurement revealed that variation in the process of image acquisition (exposure in 15% and repositioning in 57%) was a more frequent source of

Validation of automatic joint space width measurements in hand radiographs in rheumatoid arthritis

PubMed Central

Schenk, Olga; Huo, Yinghe; Vincken, Koen L.; van de Laar, Mart A.; Kuper, Ina H. H.; Slump, Kees C. H.; Lafeber, Floris P. J. G.; Bernelot Moens, Hein J.

2016-01-01

Abstract. Computerized methods promise quick, objective, and sensitive tools to quantify progression of radiological damage in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Measurement of joint space width (JSW) in finger and wrist joints with these systems performed comparable to the Sharp–van der Heijde score (SHS). A next step toward clinical use, validation of precision and accuracy in hand joints with minimal damage, is described with a close scrutiny of sources of error. A recently developed system to measure metacarpophalangeal (MCP) and proximal interphalangeal (PIP) joints was validated in consecutive hand images of RA patients. To assess the impact of image acquisition, measurements on radiographs from a multicenter trial and from a recent prospective cohort in a single hospital were compared. Precision of the system was tested by comparing the joint space in mm in pairs of subsequent images with a short interval without progression of SHS. In case of incorrect measurements, the source of error was analyzed with a review by human experts. Accuracy was assessed by comparison with reported measurements with other systems. In the two series of radiographs, the system could automatically locate and measure 1003/1088 (92.2%) and 1143/1200 (95.3%) individual joints, respectively. In joints with a normal SHS, the average (SD) size of MCP joints was 1.7±0.2 and 1.6±0.3  mm in the two series of radiographs, and of PIP joints 1.0±0.2 and 0.9±0.2  mm. The difference in JSW between two serial radiographs with an interval of 6 to 12 months and unchanged SHS was 0.0±0.1  mm, indicating very good precision. Errors occurred more often in radiographs from the multicenter cohort than in a more recent series from a single hospital. Detailed analysis of the 55/1125 (4.9%) measurements that had a discrepant paired measurement revealed that variation in the process of image acquisition (exposure in 15% and repositioning in 57%) was a more frequent source of error than

Intraclass Correlation Coefficients in Hierarchical Design Studies with Discrete Response Variables: A Note on a Direct Interval Estimation Procedure

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Raykov, Tenko; Marcoulides, George A.

2015-01-01

A latent variable modeling procedure that can be used to evaluate intraclass correlation coefficients in two-level settings with discrete response variables is discussed. The approach is readily applied when the purpose is to furnish confidence intervals at prespecified confidence levels for these coefficients in setups with binary or ordinal…

Normal Development and Measurements of the Occipital Condyle-C1 Interval in Children and Young Adults.

PubMed

Smith, P; Linscott, L L; Vadivelu, S; Zhang, B; Leach, J L

2016-05-01

Widening of the occipital condyle-C1 interval is the most specific and sensitive means of detecting atlanto-occipital dislocation. Recent studies attempting to define normal measurements of the condyle-C1 interval in children have varied substantially. This study was performed to test the null hypothesis that condyle-C1 interval morphology and joint measurements do not change as a function of age. Imaging review of subjects undergoing CT of the upper cervical spine for reasons unrelated to trauma or developmental abnormality was performed. Four equidistant measurements were obtained for each bilateral condyle-C1 interval on sagittal and coronal images. The cohort was divided into 7 age groups to calculate the mean, SD, and 95% CIs for the average condyle-C1 interval in both planes. The prevalence of a medial occipital condyle notch was calculated. Two hundred forty-eight joints were measured in 124 subjects with an age range of 2 days to 22 years. The condyle-C1 interval varies substantially by age. Average coronal measurements are larger and more variable than sagittal measurements. The medial occipital condyle notch is most prevalent from 1 to 12 years and is uncommon in older adolescents and young adults. The condyle-C1 interval increases during the first several years of life, is largest in the 2- to 4-year age range, and then decreases through late childhood and adolescence. A single threshold value to detect atlanto-occipital dissociation may not be sensitive and specific for all age groups. Application of this normative data to documented cases of atlanto-occipital injury is needed to determine clinical utility. © 2016 by American Journal of Neuroradiology.

Dynamic visual noise reduces confidence in short-term memory for visual information.

PubMed

Kemps, Eva; Andrade, Jackie

2012-05-01

Previous research has shown effects of the visual interference technique, dynamic visual noise (DVN), on visual imagery, but not on visual short-term memory, unless retention of precise visual detail is required. This study tested the prediction that DVN does also affect retention of gross visual information, specifically by reducing confidence. Participants performed a matrix pattern memory task with three retention interval interference conditions (DVN, static visual noise and no interference control) that varied from trial to trial. At recall, participants indicated whether or not they were sure of their responses. As in previous research, DVN did not impair recall accuracy or latency on the task, but it did reduce recall confidence relative to static visual noise and no interference. We conclude that DVN does distort visual representations in short-term memory, but standard coarse-grained recall measures are insensitive to these distortions.

Five-Year Risk of Interval-Invasive Second Breast Cancer

PubMed Central

Buist, Diana S. M.; Houssami, Nehmat; Dowling, Emily C.; Halpern, Elkan F.; Gazelle, G. Scott; Lehman, Constance D.; Henderson, Louise M.; Hubbard, Rebecca A.

2015-01-01

Background: Earlier detection of second breast cancers after primary breast cancer (PBC) treatment improves survival, yet mammography is less accurate in women with prior breast cancer. The purpose of this study was to examine women presenting clinically with second breast cancers after negative surveillance mammography (interval cancers), and to estimate the five-year risk of interval-invasive second cancers for women with varying risk profiles. Methods: We evaluated a prospective cohort of 15 114 women with 47 717 surveillance mammograms diagnosed with stage 0-II unilateral PBC from 1996 through 2008 at facilities in the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium. We used discrete time survival models to estimate the association between odds of an interval-invasive second breast cancer and candidate predictors, including demographic, PBC, and imaging characteristics. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results: The cumulative incidence of second breast cancers after five years was 54.4 per 1000 women, with 325 surveillance-detected and 138 interval-invasive second breast cancers. The five-year risk of interval-invasive second cancer for women with referent category characteristics was 0.60%. For women with the most and least favorable profiles, the five-year risk ranged from 0.07% to 6.11%. Multivariable modeling identified grade II PBC (odds ratio [OR] = 1.95, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.15 to 3.31), treatment with lumpectomy without radiation (OR = 3.27, 95% CI = 1.91 to 5.62), interval PBC presentation (OR = 2.01, 95% CI 1.28 to 3.16), and heterogeneously dense breasts on mammography (OR = 1.54, 95% CI = 1.01 to 2.36) as independent predictors of interval-invasive second breast cancers. Conclusions: PBC diagnosis and treatment characteristics contribute to variation in subsequent-interval second breast cancer risk. Consideration of these factors may be useful in developing tailored post-treatment imaging surveillance plans. PMID:25904721

Confidence to cook vegetables and the buying habits of Australian households.

PubMed

Winkler, Elisabeth; Turrell, Gavin

2009-10-01

Cooking skills are emphasized in nutrition promotion but their distribution among population subgroups and relationship to dietary behavior is researched by few population-based studies. This study examined the relationships between confidence to cook, sociodemographic characteristics, and household vegetable purchasing. This cross-sectional study of 426 randomly selected households in Brisbane, Australia, used a validated questionnaire to assess household vegetable purchasing habits and the confidence to cook of the person who most often prepares food for these households. The mutually adjusted odds ratios (ORs) of lacking confidence to cook were assessed across a range of demographic subgroups using multiple logistic regression models. Similarly, mutually adjusted mean vegetable purchasing scores were calculated using multiple linear regression for different population groups and for respondents with varying confidence levels. Lacking confidence to cook using a variety of techniques was more common among respondents with less education (OR 3.30; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01 to 10.75) and was less common among respondents who lived with minors (OR 0.22; 95% CI 0.09 to 0.53) and other adults (OR 0.43; 95% CI 0.24 to 0.78). Lack of confidence to prepare vegetables was associated with being male (OR 2.25; 95% CI 1.24 to 4.08), low education (OR 6.60; 95% CI 2.08 to 20.91), lower household income (OR 2.98; 95% CI 1.02 to 8.72) and living with other adults (OR 0.53; 95% CI 0.29 to 0.98). Households bought a greater variety of vegetables on a regular basis when the main chef was confident to prepare them (difference: 18.60; 95% CI 14.66 to 22.54), older (difference: 8.69; 95% CI 4.92 to 12.47), lived with at least one other adult (difference: 5.47; 95% CI 2.82 to 8.12) or at least one minor (difference: 2.86; 95% CI 0.17 to 5.55). Cooking skills may contribute to socioeconomic dietary differences, and may be a useful strategy for promoting fruit and vegetable

Age-dependent biochemical quantities: an approach for calculating reference intervals.

PubMed

Bjerner, J

2007-01-01

A parametric method is often preferred when calculating reference intervals for biochemical quantities, as non-parametric methods are less efficient and require more observations/study subjects. Parametric methods are complicated, however, because of three commonly encountered features. First, biochemical quantities seldom display a Gaussian distribution, and there must either be a transformation procedure to obtain such a distribution or a more complex distribution has to be used. Second, biochemical quantities are often dependent on a continuous covariate, exemplified by rising serum concentrations of MUC1 (episialin, CA15.3) with increasing age. Third, outliers often exert substantial influence on parametric estimations and therefore need to be excluded before calculations are made. The International Federation of Clinical Chemistry (IFCC) currently recommends that confidence intervals be calculated for the reference centiles obtained. However, common statistical packages allowing for the adjustment of a continuous covariate do not make this calculation. In the method described in the current study, Tukey's fence is used to eliminate outliers and two-stage transformations (modulus-exponential-normal) in order to render Gaussian distributions. Fractional polynomials are employed to model functions for mean and standard deviations dependent on a covariate, and the model is selected by maximum likelihood. Confidence intervals are calculated for the fitted centiles by combining parameter estimation and sampling uncertainties. Finally, the elimination of outliers was made dependent on covariates by reiteration. Though a good knowledge of statistical theory is needed when performing the analysis, the current method is rewarding because the results are of practical use in patient care.

Effect of stress concentration on the fatigue strength of A7N01S-T5 welded joints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Mingyue; Gou, Guoqing; Hang, Zongqiu; Chen, Hui

2017-07-01

Stress concentration is a key factor that affects the fatigue strength of welded joints. In this study, the fatigue strengths of butt joints with and without the weld reinforcement were tested to quantify the effect of stress concentration. The fatigue strength of the welded joints was measured with a high-frequency fatigue machine. The P-S-N curves were drawn under different confidence levels and failure probabilities. The results show that butt joints with the weld reinforcement have much lower fatigue strength than joints without the weld reinforcement. Therefore, stress concentration introduced by the weld reinforcement should be controlled.

Active ankle motion may result in changes to the talofibular interval in individuals with chronic ankle instability and ankle sprain copers: a preliminary study.

PubMed

Croy, Theodore; Cosby, Nicole L; Hertel, Jay

2013-08-01

Alterations in talocrural joint arthrokinematics related to repositioning of the talus or fibula following ankle sprain have been reported in radiological and clinical studies. It is unclear if these changes can result from normal active ankle motion. The study objective was to determine if active movement created changes in the sagittal plane talofibular interval in ankles with a history of lateral ankle sprain and instability. Three subject groups [control (n = 17), ankle sprain copers (n = 20), and chronic ankle instability (n = 20)] underwent ultrasound imaging of the anterolateral ankle gutter to identify the lateral malleolus and talus over three trials. Between trials, subjects actively plantar and dorsiflexed the ankle three times. The sagittal plane talofibular interval was assessed by measuring the anteroposterior distance (mm) between the lateral malleolus and talus from an ultrasound image. Between group and trial differences were analyzed with repeated measures analysis of variance and post-hoc t-tests. Fifty-seven subjects participated. A significant group-by-trial interaction was observed (F4,108 = 3.5; P = 0.009). The talofibular interval was increased in both copers [2.4±3.6 mm; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.73-4.1; P = 0.007] and chronic ankle instability (4.1±4.6 mm; 95% CI: 1.9-6.2; P = 0.001) at trial 3 while no changes were observed in control ankle talar position (0.06±2.8mm; 95% CI: -1.5-1.4; P = 0.93). The talofibular interval increased only in subjects with a history of lateral ankle sprain with large clinical effect sizes observed. These findings suggest that an alteration in the position of the talus or fibula occurred with non-weight bearing sagittal plane motion. These findings may have diagnostic and therapeutic implications for manual therapists.

Change in Breast Cancer Screening Intervals Since the 2009 USPSTF Guideline.

PubMed

Wernli, Karen J; Arao, Robert F; Hubbard, Rebecca A; Sprague, Brian L; Alford-Teaster, Jennifer; Haas, Jennifer S; Henderson, Louise; Hill, Deidre; Lee, Christoph I; Tosteson, Anna N A; Onega, Tracy

2017-08-01

In 2009, the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommended biennial mammography for women aged 50-74 years and shared decision-making for women aged 40-49 years for breast cancer screening. We evaluated changes in mammography screening interval after the 2009 recommendations. We conducted a prospective cohort study of women aged 40-74 years who received 821,052 screening mammograms between 2006 and 2012 using data from the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium. We compared changes in screening intervals and stratified intervals based on whether the mammogram at the end of the interval occurred before or after the 2009 recommendation. Differences in mean interval length by woman-level characteristics were compared using linear regression. The mean interval (in months) minimally decreased after the 2009 USPSTF recommendations. Among women aged 40-49 years, the mean interval decreased from 17.2 months to 17.1 months (difference -0.16%, 95% confidence interval [CI] -0.30 to -0.01). Similar small reductions were seen for most age groups. The largest change in interval length in the post-USPSTF period was declines among women with a first-degree family history of breast cancer (difference -0.68%, 95% CI -0.82 to -0.54) or a 5-year breast cancer risk ≥2.5% (difference -0.58%, 95% CI -0.73 to -0.44). The 2009 USPSTF recommendation did not lengthen the average mammography interval among women routinely participating in mammography screening. Future studies should evaluate whether breast cancer screening intervals lengthen toward biennial intervals following new national 2016 breast cancer screening recommendations, particularly among women less than 50 years of age.

A comparison of confidence/credible interval methods for the area under the ROC curve for continuous diagnostic tests with small sample size.

PubMed

Feng, Dai; Cortese, Giuliana; Baumgartner, Richard

2017-12-01

The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is frequently used as a measure of accuracy of continuous markers in diagnostic tests. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) is arguably the most widely used summary index for the ROC curve. Although the small sample size scenario is common in medical tests, a comprehensive study of small sample size properties of various methods for the construction of the confidence/credible interval (CI) for the AUC has been by and large missing in the literature. In this paper, we describe and compare 29 non-parametric and parametric methods for the construction of the CI for the AUC when the number of available observations is small. The methods considered include not only those that have been widely adopted, but also those that have been less frequently mentioned or, to our knowledge, never applied to the AUC context. To compare different methods, we carried out a simulation study with data generated from binormal models with equal and unequal variances and from exponential models with various parameters and with equal and unequal small sample sizes. We found that the larger the true AUC value and the smaller the sample size, the larger the discrepancy among the results of different approaches. When the model is correctly specified, the parametric approaches tend to outperform the non-parametric ones. Moreover, in the non-parametric domain, we found that a method based on the Mann-Whitney statistic is in general superior to the others. We further elucidate potential issues and provide possible solutions to along with general guidance on the CI construction for the AUC when the sample size is small. Finally, we illustrate the utility of different methods through real life examples.

The idiosyncratic nature of confidence

PubMed Central

Navajas, Joaquin; Hindocha, Chandni; Foda, Hebah; Keramati, Mehdi; Latham, Peter E; Bahrami, Bahador

2017-01-01

Confidence is the ‘feeling of knowing’ that accompanies decision making. Bayesian theory proposes that confidence is a function solely of the perceived probability of being correct. Empirical research has suggested, however, that different individuals may perform different computations to estimate confidence from uncertain evidence. To test this hypothesis, we collected confidence reports in a task where subjects made categorical decisions about the mean of a sequence. We found that for most individuals, confidence did indeed reflect the perceived probability of being correct. However, in approximately half of them, confidence also reflected a different probabilistic quantity: the perceived uncertainty in the estimated variable. We found that the contribution of both quantities was stable over weeks. We also observed that the influence of the perceived probability of being correct was stable across two tasks, one perceptual and one cognitive. Overall, our findings provide a computational interpretation of individual differences in human confidence. PMID:29152591

Joint analysis of three genome-wide association studies of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma in Chinese populations.

PubMed

Wu, Chen; Wang, Zhaoming; Song, Xin; Feng, Xiao-Shan; Abnet, Christian C; He, Jie; Hu, Nan; Zuo, Xian-Bo; Tan, Wen; Zhan, Qimin; Hu, Zhibin; He, Zhonghu; Jia, Weihua; Zhou, Yifeng; Yu, Kai; Shu, Xiao-Ou; Yuan, Jian-Min; Zheng, Wei; Zhao, Xue-Ke; Gao, She-Gan; Yuan, Zhi-Qing; Zhou, Fu-You; Fan, Zong-Min; Cui, Ji-Li; Lin, Hong-Li; Han, Xue-Na; Li, Bei; Chen, Xi; Dawsey, Sanford M; Liao, Linda; Lee, Maxwell P; Ding, Ti; Qiao, You-Lin; Liu, Zhihua; Liu, Yu; Yu, Dianke; Chang, Jiang; Wei, Lixuan; Gao, Yu-Tang; Koh, Woon-Puay; Xiang, Yong-Bing; Tang, Ze-Zhong; Fan, Jin-Hu; Han, Jing-Jing; Zhou, Sheng-Li; Zhang, Peng; Zhang, Dong-Yun; Yuan, Yuan; Huang, Ying; Liu, Chunling; Zhai, Kan; Qiao, Yan; Jin, Guangfu; Guo, Chuanhai; Fu, Jianhua; Miao, Xiaoping; Lu, Changdong; Yang, Haijun; Wang, Chaoyu; Wheeler, William A; Gail, Mitchell; Yeager, Meredith; Yuenger, Jeff; Guo, Er-Tao; Li, Ai-Li; Zhang, Wei; Li, Xue-Min; Sun, Liang-Dan; Ma, Bao-Gen; Li, Yan; Tang, Sa; Peng, Xiu-Qing; Liu, Jing; Hutchinson, Amy; Jacobs, Kevin; Giffen, Carol; Burdette, Laurie; Fraumeni, Joseph F; Shen, Hongbing; Ke, Yang; Zeng, Yixin; Wu, Tangchun; Kraft, Peter; Chung, Charles C; Tucker, Margaret A; Hou, Zhi-Chao; Liu, Ya-Li; Hu, Yan-Long; Liu, Yu; Wang, Li; Yuan, Guo; Chen, Li-Sha; Liu, Xiao; Ma, Teng; Meng, Hui; Sun, Li; Li, Xin-Min; Li, Xiu-Min; Ku, Jian-Wei; Zhou, Ying-Fa; Yang, Liu-Qin; Wang, Zhou; Li, Yin; Qige, Qirenwang; Yang, Wen-Jun; Lei, Guang-Yan; Chen, Long-Qi; Li, En-Min; Yuan, Ling; Yue, Wen-Bin; Wang, Ran; Wang, Lu-Wen; Fan, Xue-Ping; Zhu, Fang-Heng; Zhao, Wei-Xing; Mao, Yi-Min; Zhang, Mei; Xing, Guo-Lan; Li, Ji-Lin; Han, Min; Ren, Jing-Li; Liu, Bin; Ren, Shu-Wei; Kong, Qing-Peng; Li, Feng; Sheyhidin, Ilyar; Wei, Wu; Zhang, Yan-Rui; Feng, Chang-Wei; Wang, Jin; Yang, Yu-Hua; Hao, Hong-Zhang; Bao, Qi-De; Liu, Bao-Chi; Wu, Ai-Qun; Xie, Dong; Yang, Wan-Cai; Wang, Liang; Zhao, Xiao-Hang; Chen, Shu-Qing; Hong, Jun-Yan; Zhang, Xue-Jun; Freedman, Neal D; Goldstein, Alisa M; Lin, Dongxin; Taylor, Philip R; Wang, Li-Dong; Chanock, Stephen J

2014-09-01

We conducted a joint (pooled) analysis of three genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) in individuals of Chinese ancestry (5,337 ESCC cases and 5,787 controls) with 9,654 ESCC cases and 10,058 controls for follow-up. In a logistic regression model adjusted for age, sex, study and two eigenvectors, two new loci achieved genome-wide significance, marked by rs7447927 at 5q31.2 (per-allele odds ratio (OR) = 0.85, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.82-0.88; P = 7.72 × 10(-20)) and rs1642764 at 17p13.1 (per-allele OR = 0.88, 95% CI = 0.85-0.91; P = 3.10 × 10(-13)). rs7447927 is a synonymous SNP in TMEM173, and rs1642764 is an intronic SNP in ATP1B2, near TP53. Furthermore, a locus in the HLA class II region at 6p21.32 (rs35597309) achieved genome-wide significance in the two populations at highest risk for ESSC (OR = 1.33, 95% CI = 1.22-1.46; P = 1.99 × 10(-10)). Our joint analysis identifies new ESCC susceptibility loci overall as well as a new locus unique to the population in the Taihang Mountain region at high risk of ESCC.

The Use of One-Sample Prediction Intervals for Estimating CO2 Scrubber Canister Durations

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-10-01

Grade and 812 D-Grade Sofnolime.3 Definitions According to Devore,4 A CI (confidence interval) refers to a parameter, or population ... characteristic , whose value is fixed but unknown to us. In contrast, a future value of Y is not a parameter but instead a random variable; for this

Sources of sport confidence, imagery type and performance among competitive athletes: the mediating role of sports confidence.

PubMed

Levy, A R; Perry, J; Nicholls, A R; Larkin, D; Davies, J

2015-01-01

This study explored the mediating role of sport confidence upon (1) sources of sport confidence-performance relationship and (2) imagery-performance relationship. Participants were 157 competitive athletes who completed state measures of confidence level/sources, imagery type and performance within one hour after competition. Among the current sample, confirmatory factor analysis revealed appropriate support for the nine-factor SSCQ and the five-factor SIQ. Mediational analysis revealed that sport confidence had a mediating influence upon the achievement source of confidence-performance relationship. In addition, both cognitive and motivational imagery types were found to be important sources of confidence, as sport confidence mediated imagery type- performance relationship. Findings indicated that athletes who construed confidence from their own achievements and report multiple images on a more frequent basis are likely to benefit from enhanced levels of state sport confidence and subsequent performance.

The Joint Effects of Lifestyle Factors and Comorbidities on the Risk of Colorectal Cancer: A Large Chinese Retrospective Case-Control Study

PubMed Central

Hu, Hai; Zhou, Yangyang; Ren, Shujuan; Wu, Jiajin; Zhu, Meiying; Chen, Donghui; Yang, Haiyan; Wang, Liwei

2015-01-01

Background Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a major cause of cancer morbidity and mortality. In previous epidemiologic studies, the respective correlation between lifestyle factors and comorbidity and CRC has been extensively studied. However, little is known about their joint effects on CRC. Methods We conducted a retrospective case-control study of 1,144 diagnosed CRC patients and 60,549 community controls. A structured questionnaire was administered to the participants about their socio-demographic factors, anthropometric measures, comorbidity history and lifestyle factors. Logistic regression model was used to calculate the odds ratio (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CIs) for each factor. According to the results from logistic regression model, we further developed healthy lifestyle index (HLI) and comorbidity history index (CHI) to investigate their independent and joint effects on CRC risk. Results Four lifestyle factors (including physical activities, sleep, red meat and vegetable consumption) and four types of comorbidity (including diabetes, hyperlipidemia, history of inflammatory bowel disease and polyps) were found to be independently associated with the risk of CRC in multivariant logistic regression model. Intriguingly, their combined pattern- HLI and CHI demonstrated significant correlation with CRC risk independently (ORHLI: 3.91, 95%CI: 3.13–4.88; ORCHI: 2.49, 95%CI: 2.11–2.93) and jointly (OR: 10.33, 95%CI: 6.59–16.18). Conclusions There are synergistic effects of lifestyle factors and comorbidity on the risk of colorectal cancer in the Chinese population. PMID:26710070

Five-year risk of interval-invasive second breast cancer.

PubMed

Lee, Janie M; Buist, Diana S M; Houssami, Nehmat; Dowling, Emily C; Halpern, Elkan F; Gazelle, G Scott; Lehman, Constance D; Henderson, Louise M; Hubbard, Rebecca A

2015-07-01

Earlier detection of second breast cancers after primary breast cancer (PBC) treatment improves survival, yet mammography is less accurate in women with prior breast cancer. The purpose of this study was to examine women presenting clinically with second breast cancers after negative surveillance mammography (interval cancers), and to estimate the five-year risk of interval-invasive second cancers for women with varying risk profiles. We evaluated a prospective cohort of 15 114 women with 47 717 surveillance mammograms diagnosed with stage 0-II unilateral PBC from 1996 through 2008 at facilities in the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium. We used discrete time survival models to estimate the association between odds of an interval-invasive second breast cancer and candidate predictors, including demographic, PBC, and imaging characteristics. All statistical tests were two-sided. The cumulative incidence of second breast cancers after five years was 54.4 per 1000 women, with 325 surveillance-detected and 138 interval-invasive second breast cancers. The five-year risk of interval-invasive second cancer for women with referent category characteristics was 0.60%. For women with the most and least favorable profiles, the five-year risk ranged from 0.07% to 6.11%. Multivariable modeling identified grade II PBC (odds ratio [OR] = 1.95, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.15 to 3.31), treatment with lumpectomy without radiation (OR = 3.27, 95% CI = 1.91 to 5.62), interval PBC presentation (OR = 2.01, 95% CI 1.28 to 3.16), and heterogeneously dense breasts on mammography (OR = 1.54, 95% CI = 1.01 to 2.36) as independent predictors of interval-invasive second breast cancers. PBC diagnosis and treatment characteristics contribute to variation in subsequent-interval second breast cancer risk. Consideration of these factors may be useful in developing tailored post-treatment imaging surveillance plans. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved

Thermal Fatigue Study of W/cu Joint

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Fu; Wu, Jihong; Xu, Zengyu; Xu, Ying

2003-06-01

HHFC mock-ups with a structure of W/Cu/SS were developed by hot isostatic pressing (HIP). The performance of the W/Cu joint under high heat loads was tested using an electron beam. The size of specimens for heat load tests was 25×25 mm and the size of beam spot on the specimen surface was 22 mm in diameter. During heat load test, the specimens were water-cooled. Thermal fatigue test were conducted at power density of 8.7 MW/m2 with pulse duration of 20 seconds and interval of 20 seconds. After 1000 cycles of tests, no cracks and failure were found in the W/Cu joint. The thermal performance was also investigated in the range of 1 ~ 9 MW/m2.

Using a Nonparametric Bootstrap to Obtain a Confidence Interval for Pearson's "r" with Cluster Randomized Data: A Case Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wagstaff, David A.; Elek, Elvira; Kulis, Stephen; Marsiglia, Flavio

2009-01-01

A nonparametric bootstrap was used to obtain an interval estimate of Pearson's "r," and test the null hypothesis that there was no association between 5th grade students' positive substance use expectancies and their intentions to not use substances. The students were participating in a substance use prevention program in which the unit of…

Evaluating the Impact of Guessing and Its Interactions with Other Test Characteristics on Confidence Interval Procedures for Coefficient Alpha

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Paek, Insu

2016-01-01

The effect of guessing on the point estimate of coefficient alpha has been studied in the literature, but the impact of guessing and its interactions with other test characteristics on the interval estimators for coefficient alpha has not been fully investigated. This study examined the impact of guessing and its interactions with other test…

Neurophysiology of perceived confidence.

PubMed

Graziano, Martin; Parra, Lucas C; Sigman, Mariano

2010-01-01

In a partial report paradigm, subjects observe during a brief presentation a cluttered field and after some time - typically ranging from 100 ms to a second - are asked to report a subset of the presented elements. A vast buffer of information is transiently available to be broadcasted which, if not retrieved in time, fades rapidly without reaching consciousness. An interesting feature of this experiment is that objective performance and subjective confidence is decoupled. This converts this paradigm in an ideal vehicle to understand the brain dynamics of the construction of confidence. Here we report a high-density EEG experiment in which we infer elements of the EEG response which are indicative of subjective confidence. We find that an early response during encoding partially correlates with perceived confidence. However, the bulk of the weight of subjective confidence is determined during a late, N400-like waveform, during the retrieval stage. This shows that we can find markers of access to internal, subjective states, that are uncoupled from objective response and stimulus properties of the task, and we propose that this can be used with decoding methods of EEG to infer subjective mental states.

Confidence in Altman-Bland plots: a critical review of the method of differences.

PubMed

Ludbrook, John

2010-02-01

1. Altman and Bland argue that the virtue of plotting differences against averages in method-comparison studies is that 95% confidence limits for the differences can be constructed. These allow authors and readers to judge whether one method of measurement could be substituted for another. 2. The technique is often misused. So I have set out, by statistical argument and worked examples, to advise pharmacologists and physiologists how best to construct these limits. 3. First, construct a scattergram of differences on averages, then calculate the line of best fit for the linear regression of differences on averages. If the slope of the regression is shown to differ from zero, there is proportional bias. 4. If there is no proportional bias and if the scatter of differences is uniform (homoscedasticity), construct 'classical' 95% confidence limits. 5. If there is proportional bias yet homoscedasticity, construct hyperbolic 95% confidence limits (prediction interval) around the line of best fit. 6. If there is proportional bias and the scatter of values for differences increases progressively as the average values increase (heteroscedasticity), log-transform the raw values from the two methods and replot differences against averages. If this eliminates proportional bias and heteroscedasticity, construct 'classical' 95% confidence limits. Otherwise, construct horizontal V-shaped 95% confidence limits around the line of best fit of differences on averages or around the weighted least products line of best fit to the original data. 7. In designing a method-comparison study, consult a qualified biostatistician, obey the rules of randomization and make replicate observations.

Scalable Joint Models for Reliable Uncertainty-Aware Event Prediction.

PubMed

Soleimani, Hossein; Hensman, James; Saria, Suchi

2017-08-21

Missing data and noisy observations pose significant challenges for reliably predicting events from irregularly sampled multivariate time series (longitudinal) data. Imputation methods, which are typically used for completing the data prior to event prediction, lack a principled mechanism to account for the uncertainty due to missingness. Alternatively, state-of-the-art joint modeling techniques can be used for jointly modeling the longitudinal and event data and compute event probabilities conditioned on the longitudinal observations. These approaches, however, make strong parametric assumptions and do not easily scale to multivariate signals with many observations. Our proposed approach consists of several key innovations. First, we develop a flexible and scalable joint model based upon sparse multiple-output Gaussian processes. Unlike state-of-the-art joint models, the proposed model can explain highly challenging structure including non-Gaussian noise while scaling to large data. Second, we derive an optimal policy for predicting events using the distribution of the event occurrence estimated by the joint model. The derived policy trades-off the cost of a delayed detection versus incorrect assessments and abstains from making decisions when the estimated event probability does not satisfy the derived confidence criteria. Experiments on a large dataset show that the proposed framework significantly outperforms state-of-the-art techniques in event prediction.

Hematology and biochemistry reference intervals for Ontario commercial nursing pigs close to the time of weaning

PubMed Central

Perri, Amanda M.; O’Sullivan, Terri L.; Harding, John C.S.; Wood, R. Darren; Friendship, Robert M.

2017-01-01

The evaluation of pig hematology and biochemistry parameters is rarely done largely due to the costs associated with laboratory testing and labor, and the limited availability of reference intervals needed for interpretation. Within-herd and between-herd biological variation of these values also make it difficult to establish reference intervals. Regardless, baseline reference intervals are important to aid veterinarians in the interpretation of blood parameters for the diagnosis and treatment of diseased swine. The objective of this research was to provide reference intervals for hematology and biochemistry parameters of 3-week-old commercial nursing piglets in Ontario. A total of 1032 pigs lacking clinical signs of disease from 20 swine farms were sampled for hematology and iron panel evaluation, with biochemistry analysis performed on a subset of 189 randomly selected pigs. The 95% reference interval, mean, median, range, and 90% confidence intervals were calculated for each parameter. PMID:28373729

Exploring separable components of institutional confidence.

PubMed

Hamm, Joseph A; PytlikZillig, Lisa M; Tomkins, Alan J; Herian, Mitchel N; Bornstein, Brian H; Neeley, Elizabeth M

2011-01-01

Despite its contemporary and theoretical importance in numerous social scientific disciplines, institutional confidence research is limited by a lack of consensus regarding the distinctions and relationships among related constructs (e.g., trust, confidence, legitimacy, distrust, etc.). This study examined four confidence-related constructs that have been used in studies of trust/confidence in the courts: dispositional trust, trust in institutions, obligation to obey the law, and cynicism. First, the separability of the four constructs was examined by exploratory factor analyses. Relationships among the constructs were also assessed. Next, multiple regression analyses were used to explore each construct's independent contribution to confidence in the courts. Finally, a second study replicated the first study and also examined the stability of the institutional confidence constructs over time. Results supported the hypothesized separability of, and correlations among, the four confidence-related constructs. The extent to which the constructs independently explained the observed variance in confidence in the courts differed as a function of the specific operationalization of confidence in the courts and the individual predictor measures. Implications for measuring institutional confidence and future research directions are discussed. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Regional analgesia for improvement of long-term functional outcome after elective large joint replacement.

PubMed

Atchabahian, Arthur; Schwartz, Gary; Hall, Charles B; Lajam, Claudette M; Andreae, Michael H

2015-08-13

Regional analgesia is more effective than conventional analgesia for controlling pain and may facilitate rehabilitation after large joint replacement in the short term. It remains unclear if regional anaesthesia improves functional outcomes after joint replacement beyond three months after surgery. To assess the effects of regional anaesthesia and analgesia on long-term functional outcomes 3, 6 and 12 months after elective major joint (knee, shoulder and hip) replacement surgery. We performed an electronic search of several databases (CENTRAL, MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL), and handsearched reference lists and conference abstracts. We updated our search in June 2015. We included randomized controlled trials (RCTs) comparing regional analgesia versus conventional analgesia in patients undergoing total shoulder, hip or knee replacement. We included studies that reported a functional outcome with a follow-up of at least three months after surgery. We used standard methodological procedures expected by Cochrane. We contacted study authors for additional information. We included six studies with 350 participants followed for at least three months. All of these studies enrolled participants undergoing total knee replacement. Studies were at least partially blinded. Three studies had a high risk of performance bias and one a high risk of attrition bias, but the risk of bias was otherwise unclear or low.Only one study assessed joint function using a global score. Due to heterogeneity in outcome and reporting, we could only pool three out of six RCTs, with range of motion assessed at three months after surgery used as a surrogate for joint function. All studies had a high risk of detection bias. Using the random-effects model, there was no statistically significant difference between the experimental and control groups (mean difference 3.99 degrees, 95% confidence interval (CI) - 2.23 to 10.21; P value = 0.21, 3 studies, 140 participants, very low quality evidence).We did not

Regional analgesia for improvement of long-term functional outcome after elective large joint replacement

PubMed Central

Atchabahian, Arthur; Schwartz, Gary; Hall, Charles B; Lajam, Claudette M; Andreae, Michael H

2015-01-01

Background Regional analgesia is more effective than conventional analgesia for controlling pain and may facilitate rehabilitation after large joint replacement in the short term. It remains unclear if regional anaesthesia improves functional outcomes after joint replacement beyond three months after surgery. Objectives To assess the effects of regional anaesthesia and analgesia on long-term functional outcomes 3, 6 and 12 months after elective major joint (knee, shoulder and hip) replacement surgery. Search methods We performed an electronic search of several databases (CENTRAL, MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL), and handsearched reference lists and conference abstracts. We updated our search in June 2015. Selection criteria We included randomized controlled trials (RCTs) comparing regional analgesia versus conventional analgesia in patients undergoing total shoulder, hip or knee replacement. We included studies that reported a functional outcome with a follow-up of at least three months after surgery. Data collection and analysis We used standard methodological procedures expected by Cochrane. We contacted study authors for additional information. Main results We included six studies with 350 participants followed for at least three months. All of these studies enrolled participants undergoing total knee replacement. Studies were at least partially blinded. Three studies had a high risk of performance bias and one a high risk of attrition bias, but the risk of bias was otherwise unclear or low. Only one study assessed joint function using a global score. Due to heterogeneity in outcome and reporting, we could only pool three out of six RCTs, with range of motion assessed at three months after surgery used as a surrogate for joint function. All studies had a high risk of detection bias. Using the random-effects model, there was no statistically significant difference between the experimental and control groups (mean difference 3.99 degrees, 95% confidence interval (CI) �

Distinguishing highly confident accurate and inaccurate memory: insights about relevant and irrelevant influences on memory confidence.

PubMed

Chua, Elizabeth F; Hannula, Deborah E; Ranganath, Charan

2012-01-01

It is generally believed that accuracy and confidence in one's memory are related, but there are many instances when they diverge. Accordingly it is important to disentangle the factors that contribute to memory accuracy and confidence, especially those factors that contribute to confidence, but not accuracy. We used eye movements to separately measure fluent cue processing, the target recognition experience, and relative evidence assessment on recognition confidence and accuracy. Eye movements were monitored during a face-scene associative recognition task, in which participants first saw a scene cue, followed by a forced-choice recognition test for the associated face, with confidence ratings. Eye movement indices of the target recognition experience were largely indicative of accuracy, and showed a relationship to confidence for accurate decisions. In contrast, eye movements during the scene cue raised the possibility that more fluent cue processing was related to higher confidence for both accurate and inaccurate recognition decisions. In a second experiment we manipulated cue familiarity, and therefore cue fluency. Participants showed higher confidence for cue-target associations for when the cue was more familiar, especially for incorrect responses. These results suggest that over-reliance on cue familiarity and under-reliance on the target recognition experience may lead to erroneous confidence.

Distinguishing highly confident accurate and inaccurate memory: insights about relevant and irrelevant influences on memory confidence

PubMed Central

Chua, Elizabeth F.; Hannula, Deborah E.; Ranganath, Charan

2012-01-01

It is generally believed that accuracy and confidence in one’s memory are related, but there are many instances when they diverge. Accordingly, it is important to disentangle the factors which contribute to memory accuracy and confidence, especially those factors that contribute to confidence, but not accuracy. We used eye movements to separately measure fluent cue processing, the target recognition experience, and relative evidence assessment on recognition confidence and accuracy. Eye movements were monitored during a face-scene associative recognition task, in which participants first saw a scene cue, followed by a forced-choice recognition test for the associated face, with confidence ratings. Eye movement indices of the target recognition experience were largely indicative of accuracy, and showed a relationship to confidence for accurate decisions. In contrast, eye movements during the scene cue raised the possibility that more fluent cue processing was related to higher confidence for both accurate and inaccurate recognition decisions. In a second experiment, we manipulated cue familiarity, and therefore cue fluency. Participants showed higher confidence for cue-target associations for when the cue was more familiar, especially for incorrect responses. These results suggest that over-reliance on cue familiarity and under-reliance on the target recognition experience may lead to erroneous confidence. PMID:22171810

The Impact of maternal obesity and race/ethnicity on perinatal outcomes: Independent and joint effects.

PubMed

Snowden, Jonathan M; Mission, John F; Marshall, Nicole E; Quigley, Brian; Main, Elliott; Gilbert, William M; Chung, Judith H; Caughey, Aaron B

2016-07-01

Independent and joint impacts of maternal race/ethnicity and obesity on adverse birth outcomes, including pre-eclampsia, low birth weight, and macrosomia, were characterized. Retrospective cohort study of all 2007 California births was conducted using vital records and claims data. Maternal race/ethnicity and maternal body mass index (BMI) were the key exposures; their independent and joint impact on outcomes using regression models was analyzed. Racial/ethnic minority women of normal weight generally had higher risk as compared with white women of normal weight (e.g., African-American women, pre-eclampsia adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.60, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.48-1.74 vs. white women). However, elevated BMI did not usually confer additional risk (e.g., pre-eclampsia aOR comparing African-American women with excess weight with white women with excess weight, 1.17, 95% CI: 0.89-1.54). Obesity was a risk factor for low birth weight only among white women (excess weight aOR, 1.24, 95% CI: 1.04-1.49 vs. white women of normal weight) and not among racial/ethnic minority women (e.g., African-American women, 0.95, 95% CI: 0.83-1.08). These findings add nuance to our understanding of the interplay between maternal race/ethnicity, BMI, and perinatal outcomes. While the BMI/adverse outcome gradient appears weaker in racial/ethnic minority women, this reflects the overall risk increase in racial/ethnic minority women of all body sizes. © 2016 The Obesity Society.

A randomized controlled trial of intra-articular prolotherapy versus steroid injection for sacroiliac joint pain.

PubMed

Kim, Woong Mo; Lee, Hyung Gon; Jeong, Cheol Won; Kim, Chang Mo; Yoon, Myung Ha

2010-12-01

Controversy exists regarding the efficacy of ligament prolotherapy in alleviating sacroiliac joint pain. The inconsistent success rates reported in previous studies may be attributed to variability in patient selection and techniques between studies. It was hypothesized that intra-articular prolotherapy for patients with a positive response to diagnostic block may mitigate the drawbacks of ligament prolotherapy. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the efficacy and long-term effectiveness of intra-articular prolotherapy in relieving sacroiliac joint pain, compared with intra-articular steroid injection. This was a prospective, randomized, controlled trial. The study was conducted at an outpatient pain medicine clinic at Chonnam National University Hospital in Gwang-ju, Korea. The study included patients with sacroiliac joint pain, confirmed by ≥50% improvement in response to local anesthetic block, lasting 3 months or longer, and who failed medical treatment. The treatment involved intra-articular dextrose water prolotherapy or triamcinolone acetonide injection using fluoroscopic guidance, with a biweekly schedule and maximum of three injections. Pain and disability scores were assessed at baseline, 2 weeks, and monthly after completion of treatment. The numbers of recruited patients were 23 and 25 for the prolotherapy and steroid groups, respectively. The pain and disability scores were significantly improved from baseline in both groups at the 2-week follow-up, with no significant difference between them. The cumulative incidence of ≥50% pain relief at 15 months was 58.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] 37.9%-79.5%) in the prolotherapy group and 10.2% (95% CI 6.7%-27.1%) in the steroid group, as determined by Kaplan-Meier analysis; there was a statistically significant difference between the groups (log-rank p < 0.005). Intra-articular prolotherapy provided significant relief of sacroiliac joint pain, and its effects lasted longer than those of steroid

Joint-specific risk of impaired function in fibrodysplasia ossificans progressiva (FOP).

PubMed

Pignolo, Robert J; Durbin-Johnson, Blythe P; Rocke, David M; Kaplan, Frederick S

2018-04-01

Fibrodysplasia ossificans progressiva (FOP) causes progressive disability due to heterotopic ossification from episodic flare-ups. Using data from 500 FOP patients (representing 63% of all known patients world-wide), age- and joint-specific risks of new joint involvement were estimated using parametric and nonparametric statistical methods. Compared to data from a 1994 survey of 44 individuals with FOP, our current estimates of age- and joint-specific risks of new joint involvement are more accurate (narrower confidence limits), based on a wider range of ages, and have less bias due to its greater comprehensiveness (captures over three-fifths of the known FOP patients worldwide). For the neck, chest, abdomen, and upper back, the estimated hazard decreases over time. For the jaw, lower back, shoulder, elbow, wrist, fingers, hip, knee, ankle, and foot, the estimated hazard increases initially then either plateaus or decreases. At any given time and for any anatomic site, the data indicate which joints are at risk. This study of approximately 63% of the world's known population of FOP patients provides a refined estimate of risk for new involvement at any joint at any age, as well as the proportion of patients with uninvolved joints at any age. Importantly, these joint-specific survival curves can be used to facilitate clinical trial design and to determine if potential treatments can modify the predicted trajectory of progressive joint dysfunction. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Technical Report: Algorithm and Implementation for Quasispecies Abundance Inference with Confidence Intervals from Metagenomic Sequence Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McLoughlin, Kevin

2016-01-11

This report describes the design and implementation of an algorithm for estimating relative microbial abundances, together with confidence limits, using data from metagenomic DNA sequencing. For the background behind this project and a detailed discussion of our modeling approach for metagenomic data, we refer the reader to our earlier technical report, dated March 4, 2014. Briefly, we described a fully Bayesian generative model for paired-end sequence read data, incorporating the effects of the relative abundances, the distribution of sequence fragment lengths, fragment position bias, sequencing errors and variations between the sampled genomes and the nearest reference genomes. A distinctive featuremore » of our modeling approach is the use of a Chinese restaurant process (CRP) to describe the selection of genomes to be sampled, and thus the relative abundances. The CRP component is desirable for fitting abundances to reads that may map ambiguously to multiple targets, because it naturally leads to sparse solutions that select the best representative from each set of nearly equivalent genomes.« less

Parent's confidence as a caregiver.

PubMed

Raines, Deborah A; Brustad, Judith

2012-06-01

The purpose of this study was to describe the parent's self-reported confidence as a caregiver. The specific research questions were as follows: • What is the parent's perceived level of confidence when performing infant caregiving activities in the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU)? • What is the parent's projected level of confidence about performing infant caregiving activities on the first day at home? Participants were parents of infants with an anticipated discharge date within 5 days. Inclusion criteria were as follows: parent at least 18 years of age, infant's discharge destination is home with the parent, parent will have primary responsibility for the infant after discharge, and the infant's length of stay in the NICU was a minimum of 10 days. Descriptive, survey research. Participants perceived themselves to be confident in all but 2 caregiving activities when caring for their infants in the NICU, but parents projected a change in their level of confidence in their ability to independently complete infant care activities at home. When comparing the self-reported level of confidence in the NICU and the projected level of confidence at home, the levels of confidence decreased for 5 items, increased for 8 items, and remained unchanged for 2 items. All of the items with a decrease in score were the items with the lowest score when performed in the NICU. All of these low-scoring items are caregiving activities that are unique to the post-NICU status of the infant. Interestingly, the parent's projected level of confidence increased for the 8 items focused on handling and interacting with the infant. The findings of this research provide evidence that nurses may need to rethink when parents become active participants in their infant's medical-based caregiving activities.

Combined use of intravenous and topical versus intravenous tranexamic acid in primary total joint arthroplasty: A meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Zhang, Xue-Qin; Ni, Jie; Ge, Wei-Hong

2017-02-01

To compare the safety and efficacy of combined use of intravenous and topical tranexamic acid with that of intravenous tranexamic acid in primary total joint arthroplasty. Literature was searched in PubMed, Cochrane Library, Embase, Medline, and China National Knowledge Infrastructure databases. Only randomized controlled trials were included in our study. Data were using fixed-effects or random-effects models with standard mean differences and risk ratios for continuous and dichotomous variables, respectively. Seven randomized controlled trials encompassing 683 patients were retrieved for this meta-analysis. Outcomes showed that when compared with intravenous tranexamic acid, combined use of intravenous and topical tranexamic acid could significantly reduce total blood loss by a mean of 138.70 mL [95% confidence interval (CI): -196.14 to -81.26, p < 0.001], transfusion rates (risk ratio 0.42, 95% CI: 0.2 to 0.85, p < 0.001). No significant difference in the occurrence of deep vein thrombosis, pulmonary embolism was found between the two groups. This meta-analysis indicated that comparing with only intravenous tranexamic acid, combined use of intravenous and topical tranexamic acid can significantly reduce blood loss and transfusion rate in primary total joint arthroplasty without increasing the risk of thrombotic complications. Therefore, we suggest that tranexamic acid should be intravenously combined with topically administered in primary total joint arthroplasty. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Increasing Product Confidence-Shifting Paradigms.

PubMed

Phillips, Marla; Kashyap, Vishal; Cheung, Mee-Shew

2015-01-01

Leaders in the pharmaceutical, medical device, and food industries expressed a unilateral concern over product confidence throughout the total product lifecycle, an unsettling fact for these leaders to manage given that their products affect the lives of millions of people each year. Fueled by the heparin incident of intentional adulteration in 2008, initial efforts for increasing product confidence were focused on improving the confidence of incoming materials, with a belief that supplier performance must be the root cause. As in the heparin case, concern over supplier performance extended deep into the supply chain to include suppliers of the suppliers-which is often a blind spot for pharmaceutical, device, and food manufacturers. Resolved to address the perceived lack of supplier performance, these U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-regulated industries began to adopt the supplier relationship management strategy, developed by the automotive industry, that emphasizes "management" of suppliers for the betterment of the manufacturers. Current product and supplier management strategies, however, have not led to a significant improvement in product confidence. As a result of the enduring concern by industry leaders over the lack of product confidence, Xavier University launched the Integrity of Supply Initiative in 2012 with a team of industry leaders and FDA officials. Through a methodical research approach, data generated by the pharmaceutical, medical device, and food manufacturers surprisingly pointed to themselves as a source of the lack of product confidence, and revealed that manufacturers either unknowingly increase the potential for error or can control/prevent many aspects of product confidence failure. It is only through this paradigm shift that manufacturers can work collaboratively with their suppliers as equal partners, instead of viewing their suppliers as "lesser" entities needing to be controlled. The basis of this shift provides manufacturers

Should all acromioclavicular joint injections be performed under image guidance?

PubMed

Javed, S; Sadozai, Z; Javed, A; Din, A; Schmitgen, G

2017-01-01

Steroid and local anaesthetic injection to the acromioclavicular joint (ACJ) is a very common diagnostic and therapeutic procedure, which is often performed in the outpatient department. However, it can be difficult to localize this joint because of its small size, presence of osteophytes and variable morphology in the population. We performed a study to determine whether the use of an image intensifier (X-ray guidance), in theatre, improves the accuracy of this injection. This was a prospective study carried out between March 2014 and March 2015. The injections were performed by two senior orthopaedic surgeons. First, we clinically palpated the ACJ and marked the area over this point as A. Then, with the use of a needle and an image intensifier in a single plane, we identified the actual location of the ACJ and marked this point as B. We measured the distance between A and B in millimetres (mm) and determined the accuracy of the injections. Further analysis taking into account the ACJ capsular attachments was also performed. In total, 45 patients and 50 injections were included in the study; five patients had repeated injections at different times. We found that only 12 injections (24%) were palpated to be correct with no discrepancies between A and B (95% confidence interval: 14-37%). For the remaining 38 injections (76%), the use of an image intensifier had significantly improved the accuracy of ACJ location ( p < 0.05). Taking the capsular attachments of the ACJ into consideration reduced the number of inaccurate injections to 27 (54%). We recommend the use of an image intensifier (or ultrasound guidance) to accurately determine the location of the ACJ for steroid and local anaesthetic injections. This prevents an injection into the wrong place, which can lead to wrong diagnosis and/or suboptimal treatment.

Interval estimation and optimal design for the within-subject coefficient of variation for continuous and binary variables

PubMed Central

Shoukri, Mohamed M; Elkum, Nasser; Walter, Stephen D

2006-01-01

Background In this paper we propose the use of the within-subject coefficient of variation as an index of a measurement's reliability. For continuous variables and based on its maximum likelihood estimation we derive a variance-stabilizing transformation and discuss confidence interval construction within the framework of a one-way random effects model. We investigate sample size requirements for the within-subject coefficient of variation for continuous and binary variables. Methods We investigate the validity of the approximate normal confidence interval by Monte Carlo simulations. In designing a reliability study, a crucial issue is the balance between the number of subjects to be recruited and the number of repeated measurements per subject. We discuss efficiency of estimation and cost considerations for the optimal allocation of the sample resources. The approach is illustrated by an example on Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI). We also discuss the issue of sample size estimation for dichotomous responses with two examples. Results For the continuous variable we found that the variance stabilizing transformation improves the asymptotic coverage probabilities on the within-subject coefficient of variation for the continuous variable. The maximum like estimation and sample size estimation based on pre-specified width of confidence interval are novel contribution to the literature for the binary variable. Conclusion Using the sample size formulas, we hope to help clinical epidemiologists and practicing statisticians to efficiently design reliability studies using the within-subject coefficient of variation, whether the variable of interest is continuous or binary. PMID:16686943

Decoded fMRI neurofeedback can induce bidirectional confidence changes within single participants

PubMed Central

Cortese, Aurelio; Amano, Kaoru; Koizumi, Ai; Lau, Hakwan; Kawato, Mitsuo

2017-01-01

Neurofeedback studies using real-time functional magnetic resonance imaging (rt-fMRI) have recently incorporated the multi-voxel pattern decoding approach, allowing for fMRI to serve as a tool to manipulate fine-grained neural activity embedded in voxel patterns. Because of its tremendous potential for clinical applications, certain questions regarding decoded neurofeedback (DecNef) must be addressed. Specifically, can the same participants learn to induce neural patterns in opposite directions in different sessions? If so, how does previous learning affect subsequent induction effectiveness? These questions are critical because neurofeedback effects can last for months, but the short- to mid-term dynamics of such effects are unknown. Here we employed a within-subjects design, where participants underwent two DecNef training sessions to induce behavioural changes of opposing directionality (up or down regulation of perceptual confidence in a visual discrimination task), with the order of training counterbalanced across participants. Behavioral results indicated that the manipulation was strongly influenced by the order and the directionality of neurofeedback training. We applied nonlinear mathematical modeling to parametrize four main consequences of DecNef: main effect of change in confidence, strength of down-regulation of confidence relative to up-regulation, maintenance of learning effects, and anterograde learning interference. Modeling results revealed that DecNef successfully induced bidirectional confidence changes in different sessions within single participants. Furthermore, the effect of up- compared to down-regulation was more prominent, and confidence changes (regardless of the direction) were largely preserved even after a week-long interval. Lastly, the effect of the second session was markedly diminished as compared to the effect of the first session, indicating strong anterograde learning interference. These results are interpreted in the framework

Knee joint stabilization therapy in patients with osteoarthritis of the knee: a randomized, controlled trial.

PubMed

Knoop, J; Dekker, J; van der Leeden, M; van der Esch, M; Thorstensson, C A; Gerritsen, M; Voorneman, R E; Peter, W F; de Rooij, M; Romviel, S; Lems, W F; Roorda, L D; Steultjens, M P M

2013-08-01

To investigate whether an exercise program, initially focusing on knee stabilization and subsequently on muscle strength and performance of daily activities is more effective than an exercise program focusing on muscle strength and performance of daily activities only, in reducing activity limitations in patients with knee osteoarthritis (OA) and instability of the knee joint. A single-blind, randomized, controlled trial involving 159 knee OA patients with self-reported and/or biomechanically assessed knee instability, randomly assigned to two treatment groups. Both groups received a supervised exercise program for 12 weeks, consisting of muscle strengthening exercises and training of daily activities, but only in the experimental group specific knee joint stabilization training was provided. Outcome measures included activity limitations (Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index - WOMAC physical function, primary outcome), pain, global perceived effect and knee stability. Both treatment groups demonstrated large (∼20-40%) and clinically relevant reductions in activity limitations, pain and knee instability, which were sustained 6 months post-treatment. No differences in effectiveness between experimental and control treatment were found on WOMAC physical function (B (95% confidence interval - CI) = -0.01 (-2.58 to 2.57)) or secondary outcome measures, except for a higher global perceived effect in the experimental group (P = 0.04). Both exercise programs were highly effective in reducing activity limitations and pain and restoring knee stability in knee OA patients with instability of the knee. In knee OA patients suffering from knee instability, specific knee joint stabilization training, in addition to muscle strengthening and functional exercises, does not seem to have any additional value. Dutch Trial Register (NTR) registration number: NTR1475. Copyright © 2013 Osteoarthritis Research Society International. Published by Elsevier

Precision Interval Estimation of the Response Surface by Means of an Integrated Algorithm of Neural Network and Linear Regression

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lo, Ching F.

1999-01-01

The integration of Radial Basis Function Networks and Back Propagation Neural Networks with the Multiple Linear Regression has been accomplished to map nonlinear response surfaces over a wide range of independent variables in the process of the Modem Design of Experiments. The integrated method is capable to estimate the precision intervals including confidence and predicted intervals. The power of the innovative method has been demonstrated by applying to a set of wind tunnel test data in construction of response surface and estimation of precision interval.

A joint model of persistent human papillomavirus infection and cervical cancer risk: Implications for cervical cancer screening

PubMed Central

Katki, Hormuzd A.; Cheung, Li C.; Fetterman, Barbara; Castle, Philip E.; Sundaram, Rajeshwari

2014-01-01

Summary New cervical cancer screening guidelines in the US and many European countries recommend that women get tested for human papillomavirus (HPV). To inform decisions about screening intervals, we calculate the increase in precancer/cancer risk per year of continued HPV infection. However, both time to onset of precancer/cancer and time to HPV clearance are interval-censored, and onset of precancer/cancer strongly informatively censors HPV clearance. We analyze this bivariate informatively interval-censored data by developing a novel joint model for time to clearance of HPV and time to precancer/cancer using shared random-effects, where the estimated mean duration of each woman’s HPV infection is a covariate in the submodel for time to precancer/cancer. The model was fit to data on 9,553 HPV-positive/Pap-negative women undergoing cervical cancer screening at Kaiser Permanente Northern California, data that were pivotal to the development of US screening guidelines. We compare the implications for screening intervals of this joint model to those from population-average marginal models of precancer/cancer risk. In particular, after 2 years the marginal population-average precancer/cancer risk was 5%, suggesting a 2-year interval to control population-average risk at 5%. In contrast, the joint model reveals that almost all women exceeding 5% individual risk in 2 years also exceeded 5% in 1 year, suggesting that a 1-year interval is better to control individual risk at 5%. The example suggests that sophisticated risk models capable of predicting individual risk may have different implications than population-average risk models that are currently used for informing medical guideline development. PMID:26556961

A joint model of persistent human papillomavirus infection and cervical cancer risk: Implications for cervical cancer screening.

PubMed

Katki, Hormuzd A; Cheung, Li C; Fetterman, Barbara; Castle, Philip E; Sundaram, Rajeshwari

2015-10-01

New cervical cancer screening guidelines in the US and many European countries recommend that women get tested for human papillomavirus (HPV). To inform decisions about screening intervals, we calculate the increase in precancer/cancer risk per year of continued HPV infection. However, both time to onset of precancer/cancer and time to HPV clearance are interval-censored, and onset of precancer/cancer strongly informatively censors HPV clearance. We analyze this bivariate informatively interval-censored data by developing a novel joint model for time to clearance of HPV and time to precancer/cancer using shared random-effects, where the estimated mean duration of each woman's HPV infection is a covariate in the submodel for time to precancer/cancer. The model was fit to data on 9,553 HPV-positive/Pap-negative women undergoing cervical cancer screening at Kaiser Permanente Northern California, data that were pivotal to the development of US screening guidelines. We compare the implications for screening intervals of this joint model to those from population-average marginal models of precancer/cancer risk. In particular, after 2 years the marginal population-average precancer/cancer risk was 5%, suggesting a 2-year interval to control population-average risk at 5%. In contrast, the joint model reveals that almost all women exceeding 5% individual risk in 2 years also exceeded 5% in 1 year, suggesting that a 1-year interval is better to control individual risk at 5%. The example suggests that sophisticated risk models capable of predicting individual risk may have different implications than population-average risk models that are currently used for informing medical guideline development.

The QT Interval and Risk of Incident Atrial Fibrillation

PubMed Central

Mandyam, Mala C.; Soliman, Elsayed Z.; Alonso, Alvaro; Dewland, Thomas A.; Heckbert, Susan R.; Vittinghoff, Eric; Cummings, Steven R.; Ellinor, Patrick T.; Chaitman, Bernard R.; Stocke, Karen; Applegate, William B.; Arking, Dan E.; Butler, Javed; Loehr, Laura R.; Magnani, Jared W.; Murphy, Rachel A.; Satterfield, Suzanne; Newman, Anne B.; Marcus, Gregory M.

2013-01-01

BACKGROUND Abnormal atrial repolarization is important in the development of atrial fibrillation (AF), but no direct measurement is available in clinical medicine. OBJECTIVE To determine whether the QT interval, a marker of ventricular repolarization, could be used to predict incident AF. METHODS We examined a prolonged QT corrected by the Framingham formula (QTFram) as a predictor of incident AF in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study. The Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) and Health, Aging, and Body Composition (Health ABC) study were used for validation. Secondary predictors included QT duration as a continuous variable, a short QT interval, and QT intervals corrected by other formulae. RESULTS Among 14,538 ARIC participants, a prolonged QTFram predicted a roughly two-fold increased risk of AF (hazard ratio [HR] 2.05, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.42–2.96, p<0.001). No substantive attenuation was observed after adjustment for age, race, sex, study center, body mass index, hypertension, diabetes, coronary disease, and heart failure. The findings were validated in CHS and Health ABC and were similar across various QT correction methods. Also in ARIC, each 10-ms increase in QTFram was associated with an increased unadjusted (HR 1.14, 95%CI 1.10–1.17, p<0.001) and adjusted (HR 1.11, 95%CI 1.07–1.14, p<0.001) risk of AF. Findings regarding a short QT were inconsistent across cohorts. CONCLUSIONS A prolonged QT interval is associated with an increased risk of incident AF. PMID:23872693

Group benefits in joint perceptual tasks-a review.

PubMed

Wahn, Basil; Kingstone, Alan; König, Peter

2018-05-12

In daily life, humans often perform perceptual tasks together to reach a shared goal. In these situations, individuals may collaborate (e.g., by distributing task demands) to perform the task better than when the task is performed alone (i.e., attain a group benefit). In this review, we identify the factors influencing if, and to what extent, a group benefit is attained and provide a framework of measures to assess group benefits in perceptual tasks. In particular, we integrate findings from two frequently investigated joint perceptual tasks: visuospatial tasks and decision-making tasks. For both task types, we find that an exchange of information between coactors is critical to improve joint performance. Yet, the type of exchanged information and how coactors collaborate differs between tasks. In visuospatial tasks, coactors exchange information about the performed actions to distribute task demands. In perceptual decision-making tasks, coactors exchange their confidence on their individual perceptual judgments to negotiate a joint decision. We argue that these differences can be explained by the task structure: coactors distribute task demands if a joint task allows for a spatial division and stimuli can be accurately processed by one individual. Otherwise, they perform the task individually and then integrate their individual judgments. © 2018 New York Academy of Sciences.

Evaluation of the effectiveness of pressure relief joints in reinforced concrete pavements.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1976-01-01

Reported are studies of the effectiveness of a 4-inch (100 mm) wide compressible material installed at 1,000-ft. (305 m) intervals in a jointed, reinforced concrete pavement in reducing pavement blowups. The studies were made on an Interstate highway...

Is statin use associated with new joint-related symptoms, physical function, and quality of life? Results from two population-based cohorts of women.

PubMed

Peeters, Geeske; Tett, Susan E; Conaghan, Philip G; Mishra, Gita D; Dobson, Annette J

2015-01-01

Previous studies have suggested that statins may prevent development of osteoarthritis and have antiinflammatory effects. Our aim was to examine the associations between statin use and patient-reported joint symptoms in 2 large cohorts of middle-aged and older women. Data were from 6,966 middle-aged (born 1946-1951) and 4,806 older (born 1921-1926) participants in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health who completed surveys from 2001 to 2011, including questions about joint pain/stiffness, physical functioning, and self-rated health (SRH). Administrative pharmaceutical data were used to classify participants according to statin use, cumulative volume of statin use, and type of drug. Associations between statin use and newly reported symptoms were analyzed using logistic regression with generalized estimating equations to account for repeated measures. A total of 2,096 (31.3%) of the middle-aged women and 2,473 (51.5%) of the older women were classified as statin users. After adjustment for confounders, statin use in middle-aged women was weakly associated with poor physical functioning (odds ratio [OR] 1.29, 99% confidence interval [99% CI] 1.07-1.55) and poor SRH (OR 1.35, 99% CI 1.13-1.61), but not with new joint pain/stiffness (OR 1.09, 99% CI 0.88-1.34). No dose-response relationships were found. Pravastatin and atorvastatin were associated with poor physical functioning, while atorvastatin was also associated with poor SRH. Associations found in older women were mostly explained by confounders. This large study did not demonstrate an association between statin use and reduced onset of joint pain/stiffness. Associations between statin use and poor physical functioning and poor SRH may be explained by factors other than joint pain/stiffness, e.g., muscle pain. Copyright © 2015 by the American College of Rheumatology.

Design/Analysis of the JWST ISIM Bonded Joints for Survivability at Cryogenic Temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bartoszyk, Andrew; Johnston, John; Kaprielian, Charles; Kuhn, Jonathan; Kunt, Cengiz; Rodini,Benjamin; Young, Daniel

1990-01-01

A major design and analysis challenge for the JWST ISIM structure is thermal survivability of metal/composite bonded joints below the cryogenic temperature of 30K (-405 F). Current bonded joint concepts include internal invar plug fittings, external saddle titanium/invar fittings and composite gusset/clip joints all bonded to M55J/954-6 and T300/954-6 hybrid composite tubes (75mm square). Analytical experience and design work done on metal/composite bonded joints at temperatures below that of liquid nitrogen are limited and important analysis tools, material properties, and failure criteria for composites at cryogenic temperatures are sparse in the literature. Increasing this challenge is the difficulty in testing for these required tools and properties at cryogenic temperatures. To gain confidence in analyzing and designing the ISIM joints, a comprehensive joint development test program has been planned and is currently running. The test program is designed to produce required analytical tools and develop a composite failure criterion for bonded joint strengths at cryogenic temperatures. Finite element analysis is used to design simple test coupons that simulate anticipated stress states in the flight joints; subsequently the test results are used to correlate the analysis technique for the final design of the bonded joints. In this work, we present an overview of the analysis and test methodology, current results, and working joint designs based on developed techniques and properties.

Productivity benefits of minimally invasive surgery in patients with chronic sacroiliac joint dysfunction.

PubMed

Saavoss, Josh D; Koenig, Lane; Cher, Daniel J

2016-01-01

Sacroiliac joint (SIJ) dysfunction is associated with a marked decrease in quality of life. Increasing evidence supports minimally invasive SIJ fusion as a safe and effective procedure for the treatment of chronic SIJ dysfunction. The impact of SIJ fusion on worker productivity is not known. Regression modeling using data from the National Health Interview Survey was applied to determine the relationship between responses to selected interview questions related to function and economic outcomes. Regression coefficients were then applied to prospectively collected, individual patient data in a randomized trial of SIJ fusion (INSITE, NCT01681004) to estimate expected differences in economic outcomes across treatments. Patients who receive SIJ fusion using iFuse Implant System(®) have an expected increase in the probability of working of 16% (95% confidence interval [CI] 11%-21%) relative to nonsurgical patients. The expected change in earnings across groups was US $3,128 (not statistically significant). Combining the two metrics, the annual increase in worker productivity given surgical vs nonsurgical care was $6,924 (95% CI $1,890-$11,945). For employees with chronic, severe SIJ dysfunction, minimally invasive SIJ fusion may improve worker productivity compared to nonsurgical treatment.

Talofibular interval changes after acute ankle sprain: a stress ultrasonography study of ankle laxity.

PubMed

Croy, Theodore; Saliba, Susan; Saliba, Ethan; Anderson, Mark W; Hertel, Jay

2013-11-01

Quantifying talocrural joint laxity after ankle sprain is problematic. Stress ultrasonography (US) can image the lateral talocrural joint and allow the measurement of the talofibular interval, which may suggest injury to the anterior talofibular ligament (ATFL). The acute talofibular interval changes after lateral ankle sprain are unknown. Twenty-five participants (9 male, 16 female; age 21.8 ± 3.2 y, height 167.8 ± 34.1 cm, mass 72.7 ± 13.8 kg) with 27 acute, lateral ankle injuries underwent bilateral stress US imaging at baseline (<7 d) and on the affected ankle at 3 wk and 6 wk from injury in 3 ankle conditions: neutral, anterior drawer, and inversion. Talofibular interval (mm) was measured using imaging software and self-reported function (activities of daily living [ADL] and sports) by the Foot and Ankle Ability Measure (FAAM). The talofibular interval increased with anterior-drawer stress in the involved ankle (22.65 ± 3.75 mm; P = .017) over the uninvolved ankle (19.45 ± 2.35 mm; limb × position F1,26 = 4.9, P = .035) at baseline. Inversion stress also resulted in greater interval changes (23.41 ± 2.81 mm) than in the uninvolved ankles (21.13 ± 2.08 mm). A main effect for time was observed for inversion (F2,52 = 4.3, P = .019, 21.93 ± 2.24 mm) but not for anterior drawer (F2,52 = 3.1, P = .055, 21.18 ± 2.34 mm). A significant reduction in the talofibular interval took place between baseline and week 3 inversion measurements only (F1,26 = 5.6, P = .026). FAAM-ADL and sports results increased significantly from baseline to wk 3 (21.9 ± 16.2, P < .0001 and 23.8 ± 16.9, P < .0001) and from wk 3 to wk 6 (2.5 ± 4.4, P = .009 and 10.5 ± 13.2, P = .001). Stress US methods identified increased talofibular interval changes suggestive of talocrural laxity and ATFL injury using anterior drawer and inversion stress that, despite significant improvements in self-reported function, only marginally improved during the 6 wk after ankle sprain. Stress US

The Relationship between Confidence and Self-Concept--Towards a Model of Response Confidence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kroner, Stephan; Biermann, Antje

2007-01-01

According to Stankov [Stankov, L. (2000). Complexity, metacognition and fluid intelligence. Intelligence, 28, 121-143.] response confidence in cognitive tests reflects a trait on the boundary of personality and abilities. However, several studies failed in relating confidence scores to other known traits, including self-concept. A model of…

Investigating the Genetic Architecture of the PR Interval Using Clinical Phenotypes.

PubMed

Mosley, Jonathan D; Shoemaker, M Benjamin; Wells, Quinn S; Darbar, Dawood; Shaffer, Christian M; Edwards, Todd L; Bastarache, Lisa; McCarty, Catherine A; Thompson, Will; Chute, Christopher G; Jarvik, Gail P; Crosslin, David R; Larson, Eric B; Kullo, Iftikhar J; Pacheco, Jennifer A; Peissig, Peggy L; Brilliant, Murray H; Linneman, James G; Witte, John S; Denny, Josh C; Roden, Dan M

2017-04-01

One potential use for the PR interval is as a biomarker of disease risk. We hypothesized that quantifying the shared genetic architectures of the PR interval and a set of clinical phenotypes would identify genetic mechanisms contributing to PR variability and identify diseases associated with a genetic predictor of PR variability. We used ECG measurements from the ARIC study (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities; n=6731 subjects) and 63 genetically modulated diseases from the eMERGE network (Electronic Medical Records and Genomics; n=12 978). We measured pairwise genetic correlations (rG) between PR phenotypes (PR interval, PR segment, P-wave duration) and each of the 63 phenotypes. The PR segment was genetically correlated with atrial fibrillation (rG=-0.88; P =0.0009). An analysis of metabolic phenotypes in ARIC also showed that the P wave was genetically correlated with waist circumference (rG=0.47; P =0.02). A genetically predicted PR interval phenotype based on 645 714 single-nucleotide polymorphisms was associated with atrial fibrillation (odds ratio=0.89 per SD change; 95% confidence interval, 0.83-0.95; P =0.0006). The differing pattern of associations among the PR phenotypes is consistent with analyses that show that the genetic correlation between the P wave and PR segment was not significantly different from 0 (rG=-0.03 [0.16]). The genetic architecture of the PR interval comprises modulators of atrial fibrillation risk and obesity. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Systematic review of patient history and physical examination to diagnose chronic low back pain originating from the facet joints.

PubMed

Maas, E T; Juch, J N S; Ostelo, R W J G; Groeneweg, J G; Kallewaard, J W; Koes, B W; Verhagen, A P; Huygen, F J P M; van Tulder, M W

2017-03-01

Patient history and physical examination are frequently used procedures to diagnose chronic low back pain (CLBP) originating from the facet joints, although the diagnostic accuracy is controversial. The aim of this systematic review is to determine the diagnostic accuracy of patient history and/or physical examination to identify CLBP originating from the facet joints using diagnostic blocks as reference standard. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, Web of Science and the Cochrane Collaboration database from inception until June 2016. Two review authors independently selected studies for inclusion, extracted data and assessed the risk of bias. We calculated sensitivity and specificity values, with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Twelve studies were included, in which 129 combinations of index tests and reference standards were presented. Most of these index tests have only been evaluated in single studies with a high risk of bias. Four studies evaluated the diagnostic accuracy of the Revel's criteria combination. Because of the clinical heterogeneity, results were not pooled. The published sensitivities ranged from 0.11 (95% CI 0.02-0.29) to 1.00 (95% CI 0.75-1.00), and the specificities ranged from 0.66 (95% CI 0.46-0.82) to 0.91 (95% CI 0.83-0.96). Due to clinical heterogeneity, the evidence for the diagnostic accuracy of patient history and/or physical examination to identify facet joint pain is inconclusive. Patient history and physical examination cannot be used to limit the need of a diagnostic block. The validity of the diagnostic facet joint block should be studied, and high quality studies are required to confirm the results of single studies. Patient history and physical examination cannot be used to limit the need of a diagnostic block. The validity of the diagnostic facet joint block should be studied, and high quality studies are required to confirm the results of single studies. © 2016 European Pain Federation - EFIC®.

Experimental and numerical evaluation of the fatigue behaviour in a welded joint

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Almaguer, P.; Estrada, R.

2014-07-01

Welded joints are an important part in structures. For this reason, it is always necessary to know the behaviour of them under cyclic loads. In this paper a S - N curve of a butt welded joint of the AISI 1015 steel and Cuban manufacturing E6013 electrode is showed. Fatigue tests were made in an universal testing machine MTS810. The stress ratio used in the test was 0,1. Flaws in the fatigue specimens were characterized by means of optical and scanning electron microscopy. SolidWorks 2013 software was used to modeling the specimens geometry, while to simulate the fatigue behaviour Simulation was used. The joint fatigue limit is 178 MPa, and a cut point at 2 039 093 cycles. Some points of the simulations are inside of the 95% confidence band.

Survivorship of Total Hip Joint Replacements Following Isolated Liner Exchange for Wear.

PubMed

Vadei, Leone; Kieser, David C; Frampton, Chris; Hooper, Gary

2017-11-01

Liner exchange for articular component wear in total hip joint replacements (THJRs) is a common procedure, often thought to be benign with reliable outcomes. Recent studies, however, suggest high failure rates of liner exchange revisions with significant complications. The primary aim of this study was, therefore, to analyze the survivorship of isolated liner exchange for articular component wear, and secondarily to assess the influence of patient demographics (gender, age, and American Society of Anaesthesiologists [ASA] ratings) on rerevisions following isolated liner exchange for wear. A retrospective review of the 15-year New Zealand Joint Registry (1999-2014) was performed, analyzing the outcomes of isolated liner exchange for articular component wear. The survivorship as defined as rerevision with component exchange was determined and 10-year Kaplan-Meier survivorship curves were constructed. These revision rates were compared to age, gender, and ASA rating groups using a log-rank test. The 10-year survivorship of THJR following liner exchange revision for liner wear was 75.3%. If a rerevision was required, the median time to rerevision was 1.33 years with a rerevision rate of 3.33 per 100 component years (95% confidence interval 2.68-4.08/100 component years). The principle reasons for rerevision were dislocation (48.4%) and acetabular component loosening (20.9%). There was no statistically significant difference in rerevision rates based on gender, age categories, or ASA scores. THJR isolated liner exchange for liner wear is not a benign procedure with a survivorship of 75.3% at 10 years. Surgeons contemplating liner exchange revisions should be cognisant of this risk and should adequately assess component position and stability preoperatively. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Self-reported confidence in recall as a predictor of validity and repeatability of physical activity questionnaire data.

PubMed

Cust, Anne E; Armstrong, Bruce K; Smith, Ben J; Chau, Josephine; van der Ploeg, Hidde P; Bauman, Adrian

2009-05-01

Self-reported confidence ratings have been used in other research disciplines as a tool to assess data quality, and may be useful in epidemiologic studies. We examined whether self-reported confidence in recall of physical activity was a predictor of the validity and retest reliability of physical activity measures from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) past-year questionnaire and the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ) last-7-day questionnaire.During 2005-2006 in Sydney, Australia, 97 men and 80 women completed both questionnaires at baseline and at 10 months and wore an accelerometer as an objective comparison measure for three 7-day periods during the same timeframe. Participants rated their confidence in recalling physical activity for each question using a 5-point scale and were dichotomized at the median confidence value. Participants in the high-confidence group had higher validity and repeatability coefficients than those in the low-confidence group for most comparisons. The differences were most apparent for validity of IPAQ moderate activity: Spearman correlation rho = 0.34 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.08 to 0.55) and 0.01 (-0.17 to 0.20) for high- and low-confidence groups, respectively; and repeatability of EPIC household activity: rho = 0.81 (0.72 to 0.87) and 0.63 (0.48 to 0.74), respectively, and IPAQ vigorous activity: rho = 0.58 (0.43 to 0.70) and 0.29 (0.07 to 0.49), respectively. Women were less likely than men to report high recall confidence of past-year activity (adjusted odds ratio = 0.38; 0.18 to 0.80). Confidence ratings could be useful as indicators of recall accuracy (ie, validity and repeatability) of physical activity measures, and possibly for detecting differential measurement error and identifying questionnaire items that require improvement.

The range of confidence scales does not affect the relationship between confidence and accuracy in recognition memory.

PubMed

Tekin, Eylul; Roediger, Henry L

2017-01-01

Researchers use a wide range of confidence scales when measuring the relationship between confidence and accuracy in reports from memory, with the highest number usually representing the greatest confidence (e.g., 4-point, 20-point, and 100-point scales). The assumption seems to be that the range of the scale has little bearing on the confidence-accuracy relationship. In two old/new recognition experiments, we directly investigated this assumption using word lists (Experiment 1) and faces (Experiment 2) by employing 4-, 5-, 20-, and 100-point scales. Using confidence-accuracy characteristic (CAC) plots, we asked whether confidence ratings would yield similar CAC plots, indicating comparability in use of the scales. For the comparisons, we divided 100-point and 20-point scales into bins of either four or five and asked, for example, whether confidence ratings of 4, 16-20, and 76-100 would yield similar values. The results show that, for both types of material, the different scales yield similar CAC plots. Notably, when subjects express high confidence, regardless of which scale they use, they are likely to be very accurate (even though they studied 100 words and 50 faces in each list in 2 experiments). The scales seem convertible from one to the other, and choice of scale range probably does not affect research into the relationship between confidence and accuracy. High confidence indicates high accuracy in recognition in the present experiments.

Comprehensive treatment of temporomandibular joint disorders.

PubMed

Navrátil, Leos; Navratil, Vaclav; Hajkova, Simona; Hlinakova, Petra; Dostalova, Tatjana; Vranová, Jana

2014-01-01

Changing lifestyles, decreasing physical activity, which is increasing the number of degenerative joint diseases of various etiology, and certain dental procedures are increasing the number of patients complaining of pain in their temporomandibular joints. The aim of the study was to assess the benefits of comprehensive physiotherapy sessions in order to decrease the number of temporomandibular joint problems, thereby improving the patient's quality of life. An examination by a dentist determined each patient's treatment plan, which consisted of a medical exam, physical therapy and education. Each form of treatment was applied 10 times at intervals of 7-14 days. The main goal of the therapeutic physical education was to redress the muscle imbalance in the mandibular joint. This was achieved by restoring balance between the masticatory muscles, along with releasing the spastic shrouds found in the masticatory muscles. The aim of education was to teach the patient exercises focused on the temporomandibular joint and masticatory muscles. The intensity of the exercises and their composition were individually adjusted and adapted to their current state. Physical therapy consisted of the application of pulsed magnetic therapy, laser therapy, and non-invasive positive thermotherapy. The above procedure was conducted on a therapeutic group of 24 patients (3 men and 20 women). In the course of therapy, there were no complications, and all patients adhered to the prescribed regime. None reported any side effects. The mean treatment duration was 123 +/- 66 days. The outcome of the therapy was evaluated as described in the methodology, the degree of pain affecting the joint, and the opening ability of the mouth. In both parameters, there was a significant decline in patient pain. In a study devoted to tactics of rehabilitation treatment for temporomandibular joint disorders, the need for comprehensive long-term therapy, involving education, and learning proper chewing habits

Cost-effectiveness of minimally invasive sacroiliac joint fusion.

PubMed

Cher, Daniel J; Frasco, Melissa A; Arnold, Renée Jg; Polly, David W

2016-01-01

Sacroiliac joint (SIJ) disorders are common in patients with chronic lower back pain. Minimally invasive surgical options have been shown to be effective for the treatment of chronic SIJ dysfunction. To determine the cost-effectiveness of minimally invasive SIJ fusion. Data from two prospective, multicenter, clinical trials were used to inform a Markov process cost-utility model to evaluate cumulative 5-year health quality and costs after minimally invasive SIJ fusion using triangular titanium implants or non-surgical treatment. The analysis was performed from a third-party perspective. The model specifically incorporated variation in resource utilization observed in the randomized trial. Multiple one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. SIJ fusion was associated with a gain of approximately 0.74 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) at a cost of US$13,313 per QALY gained. In multiple one-way sensitivity analyses all scenarios resulted in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) <$26,000/QALY. Probabilistic analyses showed a high degree of certainty that the maximum ICER for SIJ fusion was less than commonly selected thresholds for acceptability (mean ICER =$13,687, 95% confidence interval $5,162-$28,085). SIJ fusion provided potential cost savings per QALY gained compared to non-surgical treatment after a treatment horizon of greater than 13 years. Compared to traditional non-surgical treatments, SIJ fusion is a cost-effective, and, in the long term, cost-saving strategy for the treatment of SIJ dysfunction due to degenerative sacroiliitis or SIJ disruption.

Failure of dissimilar material bonded joints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konstantakopoulou, M.; Deligianni, A.; Kotsikos, G.

2016-03-01

Joining of materials in structural design has always been a challenge for engineers. Bolting and riveting has been used for many years, until the emergence of fusion welding which revolutionised construction in areas such as shipbuilding, automotive, infrastructure and consumer goods. Extensive research in the past 50 years has resulted in better understanding of the process and minimised the occurrence of failures associated with fusion welding such as, residual stress cracking, stress corrosion and corrosion fatigue cracking, localised reduction in mechanical properties due to microstructural changes (heat affected zone) etc. Bonding has been a technique that has been proposed as an alternative because it eliminates several of the problems associated with fusion welding. But, despite some applications it has not seen wide use. There is however a renewed interest in adhesively bonded joints, as designers look for ever more efficient structures which inevitably leads to the use and consequently joining of combinations of lightweight materials, often with fundamentally different mechanical and physical properties. This chapter provides a review of adhesively bonded joints and reports on improvements to bonded joint strength through the introduction of carbon nanotubes at the bond interface. Results from various workers in the field are reported as well as the findings of the authors in this area of research. It is obvious that there are several challenges that need to be addressed to further enhance the strength of bonded joints and worldwide research is currently underway to address those shortcomings and build confidence in the implementation of these new techniques.

Number of positive nodes is superior to the lymph node ratio and American Joint Committee on Cancer N staging for the prognosis of surgically treated head and neck squamous cell carcinomas.

PubMed

Roberts, Thomas J; Colevas, A Dimitrios; Hara, Wendy; Holsinger, F Christopher; Oakley-Girvan, Ingrid; Divi, Vasu

2016-05-01

Recent changes in head and neck cancer epidemiology have created a need for improved lymph node prognostics. This article compares the prognostic value of the number of positive nodes (pN) with the value of the lymph node ratio (LNR) and American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) N staging in surgical patients. The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database was used to identify cases of head and neck squamous cell carcinomas from 2004 to 2012. The sample was grouped by the AJCC N stage, LNR, and pN and was analyzed with Kaplan-Meier and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models. The sample was also analyzed by the site of the primary tumor. This study identified 12,437 patients. Kaplan-Meier survival curves showed superior prognostic ability for LNR and pN staging in comparison with AJCC staging. Patients with a pN value > 5 had the worst overall survival (5-year survival rate, 16%). Patients with oropharyngeal tumors had better outcomes for all groupings, and a pN value > 5 for oropharyngeal cancers was associated with decreased survival. Multivariate regressions demonstrated larger hazard ratios (HRs) and a lower Akaike information criterion for the pN model versus the AJCC stage and LNR models. The HRs were 1.78 (95% confidence interval, 1.62-1.95) for a pN value of 1, 2.53 (95% confidence interval, 2.32-2.75) for a pN value of 2 to 5, and 4.64 (95% confidence interval, 4.18-5.14) for a pN value > 5. The pN models demonstrated superior prognostic value in comparison with the LNR and AJCC N staging. Future modifications of the nodal staging system should be based on the pN with a separate system for oropharyngeal cancers. Future trials should consider examining adjuvant treatment escalation in patients with >5 lymph nodes. Cancer 2016;122:1388-1397. © 2016 American Cancer Society. © 2015 American Cancer Society.

Active ankle motion may result in changes to the talofibular interval in individuals with chronic ankle instability and ankle sprain copers: a preliminary study

PubMed Central

Croy, Theodore; Cosby, Nicole L; Hertel, Jay

2013-01-01

Introduction: Alterations in talocrural joint arthrokinematics related to repositioning of the talus or fibula following ankle sprain have been reported in radiological and clinical studies. It is unclear if these changes can result from normal active ankle motion. The study objective was to determine if active movement created changes in the sagittal plane talofibular interval in ankles with a history of lateral ankle sprain and instability. Methods: Three subject groups [control (n = 17), ankle sprain copers (n = 20), and chronic ankle instability (n = 20)] underwent ultrasound imaging of the anterolateral ankle gutter to identify the lateral malleolus and talus over three trials. Between trials, subjects actively plantar and dorsiflexed the ankle three times. The sagittal plane talofibular interval was assessed by measuring the anteroposterior distance (mm) between the lateral malleolus and talus from an ultrasound image. Between group and trial differences were analyzed with repeated measures analysis of variance and post-hoc t-tests. Results: Fifty-seven subjects participated. A significant group-by-trial interaction was observed (F4,108 = 3.5; P = 0.009). The talofibular interval was increased in both copers [2.4±3.6 mm; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.73–4.1; P = 0.007] and chronic ankle instability (4.1±4.6 mm; 95% CI: 1.9–6.2; P = 0.001) at trial 3 while no changes were observed in control ankle talar position (0.06±2.8mm; 95% CI: −1.5–1.4; P = 0.93). Discussion: The talofibular interval increased only in subjects with a history of lateral ankle sprain with large clinical effect sizes observed. These findings suggest that an alteration in the position of the talus or fibula occurred with non-weight bearing sagittal plane motion. These findings may have diagnostic and therapeutic implications for manual therapists. PMID:24421623

Confidence in critical care nursing.

PubMed

Evans, Jeanne; Bell, Jennifer L; Sweeney, Annemarie E; Morgan, Jennifer I; Kelly, Helen M

2010-10-01

The purpose of the study was to gain an understanding of the nursing phenomenon, confidence, from the experience of nurses in the nursing subculture of critical care. Leininger's theory of cultural care diversity and universality guided this qualitative descriptive study. Questions derived from the sunrise model were used to elicit nurses' perspectives about cultural and social structures that exist within the critical care nursing subculture and the influence that these factors have on confidence. Twenty-eight critical care nurses from a large Canadian healthcare organization participated in semistructured interviews about confidence. Five themes arose from the descriptions provided by the participants. The three themes, tenuously navigating initiation rituals, deliberately developing holistic supportive relationships, and assimilating clinical decision-making rules were identified as social and cultural factors related to confidence. The remaining two themes, preserving a sense of security despite barriers and accommodating to diverse challenges, were identified as environmental factors related to confidence. Practice and research implications within the culture of critical care nursing are discussed in relation to each of the themes.

Design/analysis of the JWST ISIM bonded joints for survivability at cryogenic temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartoszyk, Andrew; Johnston, John; Kaprielian, Charles; Kuhn, Jonathan; Kunt, Cengiz; Rodini, Benjamin; Young, Daniel

2005-08-01

A major design and analysis challenge for the JWST ISIM structure is thermal survivability of metal/composite adhesively bonded joints at the cryogenic temperature of 30K (-405°F). Current bonded joint concepts include internal invar plug fittings, external saddle titanium/invar fittings and composite gusset/clip joints all bonded to hybrid composite tubes (75mm square) made with M55J/954-6 and T300/954-6 prepregs. Analytical experience and design work done on metal/composite bonded joints at temperatures below that of liquid nitrogen are limited and important analysis tools, material properties, and failure criteria for composites at cryogenic temperatures are sparse in the literature. Increasing this challenge is the difficulty in testing for these required tools and properties at cryogenic temperatures. To gain confidence in analyzing and designing the ISIM joints, a comprehensive joint development test program has been planned and is currently running. The test program is designed to produce required analytical tools and develop a composite failure criterion for bonded joint strengths at cryogenic temperatures. Finite element analysis is used to design simple test coupons that simulate anticipated stress states in the flight joints; subsequently, the test results are used to correlate the analysis technique for the final design of the bonded joints. In this work, we present an overview of the analysis and test methodology, current results, and working joint designs based on developed techniques and properties.

Use of perioperative hydroxyethyl starch 6% and albumin 5% in elective joint arthroplasty and association with adverse outcomes: a retrospective population based analysis.

PubMed

Opperer, Mathias; Poeran, Jashvant; Rasul, Rehana; Mazumdar, Madhu; Memtsoudis, Stavros G

2015-03-27

To determine whether the perioperative use of hydroxyethyl starch 6% and albumin 5% in elective joint arthroplasties are associated with an increased risk for perioperative complications. Retrospective cohort study of population based data between 2006 and 2013. Data from 510 different hospitals across the United States participating in the Premier Perspective database. 1,051,441 patients undergoing elective total hip and knee arthroplasties. Perioperative fluid resuscitation with hydroxyethyl starch 6% or albumin 5%, or neither. Acute renal failure and thromboembolic, cardiac, and pulmonary complications. Compared with patients who received neither colloid, perioperative fluid resuscitation with hydroxyethyl starch 6% or albumin 5% was associated with an increased risk of acute renal failure (odds ratios 1.23 (95% confidence interval 1.13 to 1.34) and 1.56 (1.36 to 1.78), respectively) and most other complications. A recent decrease in hydroxyethyl starch 6% use was noted, whereas that of albumin 5% increased. Similar to studies in critically ill patients, we showed that use of hydroxyethyl starch 6% was associated with an increased risk of acute renal failure and other complications in the elective perioperative orthopedic setting. This increased risk also applied to albumin 5%. These findings raise questions regarding the widespread use of these colloids in elective joint arthroplasty procedures. © Opperer et al 2015.

A Proposed Approach for Joint Modeling of the Longitudinal and Time-To-Event Data in Heterogeneous Populations: An Application to HIV/AIDS's Disease.

PubMed

Roustaei, Narges; Ayatollahi, Seyyed Mohammad Taghi; Zare, Najaf

2018-01-01

In recent years, the joint models have been widely used for modeling the longitudinal and time-to-event data simultaneously. In this study, we proposed an approach (PA) to study the longitudinal and survival outcomes simultaneously in heterogeneous populations. PA relaxes the assumption of conditional independence (CI). We also compared PA with joint latent class model (JLCM) and separate approach (SA) for various sample sizes (150, 300, and 600) and different association parameters (0, 0.2, and 0.5). The average bias of parameters estimation (AB-PE), average SE of parameters estimation (ASE-PE), and coverage probability of the 95% confidence interval (CP) among the three approaches were compared. In most cases, when the sample sizes increased, AB-PE and ASE-PE decreased for the three approaches, and CP got closer to the nominal level of 0.95. When there was a considerable association, PA in comparison with SA and JLCM performed better in the sense that PA had the smallest AB-PE and ASE-PE for the longitudinal submodel among the three approaches for the small and moderate sample sizes. Moreover, JLCM was desirable for the none-association and the large sample size. Finally, the evaluated approaches were applied on a real HIV/AIDS dataset for validation, and the results were compared.

Reference intervals for selected serum biochemistry analytes in cheetahs Acinonyx jubatus.

PubMed

Hudson-Lamb, Gavin C; Schoeman, Johan P; Hooijberg, Emma H; Heinrich, Sonja K; Tordiffe, Adrian S W

2016-02-26

Published haematologic and serum biochemistry reference intervals are very scarce for captive cheetahs and even more for free-ranging cheetahs. The current study was performed to establish reference intervals for selected serum biochemistry analytes in cheetahs. Baseline serum biochemistry analytes were analysed from 66 healthy Namibian cheetahs. Samples were collected from 30 captive cheetahs at the AfriCat Foundation and 36 free-ranging cheetahs from central Namibia. The effects of captivity-status, age, sex and haemolysis score on the tested serum analytes were investigated. The biochemistry analytes that were measured were sodium, potassium, magnesium, chloride, urea and creatinine. The 90% confidence interval of the reference limits was obtained using the non-parametric bootstrap method. Reference intervals were preferentially determined by the non-parametric method and were as follows: sodium (128 mmol/L - 166 mmol/L), potassium (3.9 mmol/L - 5.2 mmol/L), magnesium (0.8 mmol/L - 1.2 mmol/L), chloride (97 mmol/L - 130 mmol/L), urea (8.2 mmol/L - 25.1 mmol/L) and creatinine (88 µmol/L - 288 µmol/L). Reference intervals from the current study were compared with International Species Information System values for cheetahs and found to be narrower. Moreover, age, sex and haemolysis score had no significant effect on the serum analytes in this study. Separate reference intervals for captive and free-ranging cheetahs were also determined. Captive cheetahs had higher urea values, most likely due to dietary factors. This study is the first to establish reference intervals for serum biochemistry analytes in cheetahs according to international guidelines. These results can be used for future health and disease assessments in both captive and free-ranging cheetahs.

A model for developing disability confidence.

PubMed

Lindsay, Sally; Cancelliere, Sara

2017-05-15

Many clinicians, educators, and employers lack disability confidence which can affect their interactions with, and inclusion of people with disabilities. Our objective was to explore how disability confidence developed among youth who volunteered with children who have a disability. We conducted 30 in-depth interviews (16 without a disability, 14 with disabilities), with youth aged 15-25. We analyzed our data using an interpretive, qualitative, thematic approach. We identified four main themes that led to the progression of disability confidence including: (1) "disability discomfort," referring to lacking knowledge about disability and experiencing unease around people with disabilities; (2) "reaching beyond comfort zone" where participants increased their understanding of disability and became sensitized to difference; (3) "broadened perspectives" where youth gained exposure to people with disabilities and challenged common misperceptions and stereotypes; and (4) "disability confidence" which includes having knowledge of people with disabilities, inclusive, and positive attitudes towards them. Volunteering is one way that can help to develop disability confidence. Youth with and without disabilities both reported a similar process of developing disability confidence; however, there were nuances between the two groups. Implications for Rehabilitation The development of disability confidence is important for enhancing the social inclusion of people with disabilities. Volunteering with people who have a disability, or a disability different from their own, can help to develop disability confidence which involves positive attitudes, empathy, and appropriate communication skills. Clinicians, educators, and employers should consider promoting working with disabled people through such avenues as volunteering or service learning to gain disability confidence.

Interval Training

MedlinePlus

Healthy Lifestyle Fitness Interval training can help you get the most out of your workout. By Mayo Clinic Staff Are you ready to shake ... spending more time at the gym? Consider aerobic interval training. Once the domain of elite athletes, interval training ...

Epidemiology and the law: courts and confidence intervals.

PubMed Central

Christoffel, T; Teret, S P

1991-01-01

Beginning with the swine flu litigation of the early 1980s, epidemiological evidence has played an increasingly prominent role in helping the nation's courts deal with alleged causal connections between plaintiffs' diseases or other harm and exposure to specific noxious agents (such as asbestos, toxic waste, radiation, and pharmaceuticals). Judicial reliance on epidemiology has high-lighted the contrast between the nature of scientific proof and of legal proof. Epidemiologists need to recognize and understand the growing involvement of their profession in complex tort litigation. PMID:1746668

Estimation of Confidence Intervals for Multiplication and Efficiency

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Verbeke, J

2009-07-17

Helium-3 tubes are used to detect thermal neutrons by charge collection using the {sup 3}He(n,p) reaction. By analyzing the time sequence of neutrons detected by these tubes, one can determine important features about the constitution of a measured object: Some materials such as Cf-252 emit several neutrons simultaneously, while others such as uranium and plutonium isotopes multiply the number of neutrons to form bursts. This translates into unmistakable signatures. To determine the type of materials measured, one compares the measured count distribution with the one generated by a theoretical fission chain model. When the neutron background is negligible, the theoreticalmore » count distributions can be completely characterized by a pair of parameters, the multiplication M and the detection efficiency {var_epsilon}. While the optimal pair of M and {var_epsilon} can be determined by existing codes such as BigFit, the uncertainty on these parameters has not yet been fully studied. The purpose of this work is to precisely compute the uncertainties on the parameters M and {var_epsilon}, given the uncertainties in the count distribution. By considering different lengths of time tagged data, we will determine how the uncertainties on M and {var_epsilon} vary with the different count distributions.« less

Confidence Intervals for Omega Coefficient: Proposal for Calculus.

PubMed

Ventura-León, José Luis

2018-01-01

La confiabilidad es entendida como una propiedad métrica de las puntuaciones de un instrumento de medida. Recientemente se viene utilizando el coeficiente omega (ω) para la estimación de la confiabilidad. No obstante, la medición nunca es exacta por la influencia del error aleatorio, por esa razón es necesario calcular y reportar el intervalo de confianza (IC) que permite encontrar en valor verdadero en un rango de medida. En ese contexto, el artículo plantea una forma de estimar el IC mediante el método de bootstrap para facilitar este procedimiento se brindan códigos de R (un software de acceso libre) para que puedan realizarse los cálculos de una forma amigable. Se espera que el artículo sirva de ayuda a los investigadores de ámbito de salud.

Joint associations between genetic variants and reproductive factors in glioma risk among women.

PubMed

Wang, Sophia S; Hartge, Patricia; Yeager, Meredith; Carreón, Tania; Ruder, Avima M; Linet, Martha; Inskip, Peter D; Black, Amanda; Hsing, Ann W; Alavanja, Michael; Beane-Freeman, Laura; Safaiean, Mahboobeh; Chanock, Stephen J; Rajaraman, Preetha

2011-10-15

In a pooled analysis of 4 US epidemiologic studies (1993-2001), the authors evaluated the role of 5 female reproductive factors in 357 women with glioma and 822 controls. The authors further evaluated the independent association between 5 implicated gene variants and glioma risk among the study population, as well as the joint associations of female reproductive factors (ages at menarche and menopause, menopausal status, use of oral contraceptives, and menopausal hormone therapy) and these gene variants on glioma risk. Risk estimates were calculated as odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals that were adjusted for age, race, and study. Three of the gene variants (rs4295627, a variant of CCDC26; rs4977756, a variant of CDKN2A and CDKN2B; and rs6010620, a variant of RTEL1) were statistically significantly associated with glioma risk in the present population. Compared with women who had an early age at menarche (<12 years of age), those who reported menarche at 12-13 years of age or at 14 years of age or older had a 1.7-fold higher risk and a 1.9-fold higher risk of glioma, respectively (P for trend = 0.009). Postmenopausal women and women who reported ever having used oral contraceptives had a decreased risk of glioma. The authors did not observe joint associations between these reproductive characteristics and the implicated glioma gene variants. These results require replication, but if confirmed, they would suggest that the gene variants that have previously been implicated in the development of glioma are unlikely to act through the same hormonal mechanisms in women.

CIMP status of interval colon cancers: another piece to the puzzle.

PubMed

Arain, Mustafa A; Sawhney, Mandeep; Sheikh, Shehla; Anway, Ruth; Thyagarajan, Bharat; Bond, John H; Shaukat, Aasma

2010-05-01

Colon cancers diagnosed in the interval after a complete colonoscopy may occur due to limitations of colonoscopy or due to the development of new tumors, possibly reflecting molecular and environmental differences in tumorigenesis resulting in rapid tumor growth. In a previous study from our group, interval cancers (colon cancers diagnosed within 5 years of a complete colonoscopy) were almost four times more likely to demonstrate microsatellite instability (MSI) than non-interval cancers. In this study we extended our molecular analysis to compare the CpG island methylator phenotype (CIMP) status of interval and non-interval colorectal cancers and investigate the relationship between the CIMP and MSI pathways in the pathogenesis of interval cancers. We searched our institution's cancer registry for interval cancers, defined as colon cancers that developed within 5 years of a complete colonoscopy. These were frequency matched in a 1:2 ratio by age and sex to patients with non-interval cancers (defined as colon cancers diagnosed on a patient's first recorded colonoscopy). Archived cancer specimens for all subjects were retrieved and tested for CIMP gene markers. The MSI status of subjects identified between 1989 and 2004 was known from our previous study. Tissue specimens of newly identified cases and controls (between 2005 and 2006) were tested for MSI. There were 1,323 cases of colon cancer diagnosed over the 17-year study period, of which 63 were identified as having interval cancer and matched to 131 subjects with non-interval cancer. Study subjects were almost all Caucasian men. CIMP was present in 57% of interval cancers compared to 33% of non-interval cancers (P=0.004). As shown previously, interval cancers were more likely than non-interval cancers to occur in the proximal colon (63% vs. 39%; P=0.002), and have MSI 29% vs. 11%, P=0.004). In multivariable logistic regression model, proximal location (odds ratio (OR) 1.85; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1

Associations of Smoking and Age With Inflammatory Joint Signs Among Unaffected First-Degree Relatives of Rheumatoid Arthritis Patients: Results From Studies of the Etiology of Rheumatoid Arthritis.

PubMed

Sparks, Jeffrey A; Chang, Shun-Chiao; Deane, Kevin D; Gan, Ryan W; Kristen Demoruelle, M; Feser, Marie L; Moss, LauraKay; Buckner, Jane H; Keating, Richard M; Costenbader, Karen H; Gregersen, Peter K; Weisman, Michael H; Mikuls, Ted R; O'Dell, James R; Michael Holers, V; Norris, Jill M; Karlson, Elizabeth W

2016-08-01

To examine whether genetic, environmental, and serologic rheumatoid arthritis (RA) risk factors are associated with inflammatory joint signs in a cohort of first-degree relatives (FDRs) of RA patients. We evaluated RA risk factors and inflammatory joint signs in a prospective cohort of FDRs without RA in the Studies of the Etiology of RA. Genetic factors included 5 HLA-DRB1 shared epitope alleles and 45 RA-associated single-nucleotide polymorphisms; loci were combined using genetic risk scores weighted by RA risk. Environmental factors (smoking, body mass index, education, and parity) and RA-related autoantibodies were assessed at baseline. Physical examination was performed at baseline and 2-year follow-up, by observers who were blinded with regard to autoantibody status, to assess inflammatory joint signs as tender or swollen joints at sites typical for RA. Logistic regression was performed to evaluate associations of genetic, environmental, and serologic factors with inflammatory joint signs. We analyzed 966 non-Hispanic white FDRs at baseline and 262 at 2-year follow-up after excluding those with inflammatory joint signs at baseline. The mean ± SD age was 47.2 ± 15.5 years, 71% were female, and 55% were shared epitope positive. Smoking >10 pack-years was associated with inflammatory joint signs at baseline (odds ratio [OR] 1.89 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.26-2.82]) and at 2 years (OR 2.66 [95% CI 1.01-7.03]), compared to never smokers. There was a significant interaction between smoking and age with regard to risk of inflammatory joint signs (P = 0.02). FDRs younger than 50 years with >10 pack-years had the highest risk of inflammatory joint signs (OR 4.39 [95% CI 2.22-8.66], compared to never smokers younger than 50 years). In a high-risk cohort of FDRs, smoking and age were associated with both prevalent and incident inflammatory joint signs at sites typical for RA. Further prospective investigations of the factors affecting the

Academic Career Selection and Retention in Radiation Oncology: The Joint Center for Radiation Therapy Experience

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Balboni, Tracy A.; Chen, M.-H.; Harris, Jay R.

2007-05-01

Purpose: The United States healthcare system has witnessed declining reimbursement and increasing documentation requirements for longer than 10 years. These have decreased the time available to academic faculty for teaching and mentorship. The impact of these changes on the career choices of residents is unknown. The purpose of this report was to determine whether changes have occurred during the past decade in the proportion of radiation oncology trainees from a single institution entering and staying in academic medicine. Methods and Materials: We performed a review of the resident employment experience of Harvard Joint Center for Radiation Therapy residents graduating duringmore » 13 recent consecutive years (n = 48 residents). The outcomes analyzed were the initial selection of an academic vs. nonacademic career and career changes during the first 3 years after graduation. Results: Of the 48 residents, 65% pursued an academic career immediately after graduation, and 44% remained in academics at the last follow-up, after a median of 6 years. A later graduation year was associated with a decrease in the proportion of graduates immediately entering academic medicine (odds ratio, 0.78; 95% confidence interval, 0.65-0.94). However, the retention rate at 3 years of those who did immediately enter academics increased with a later graduation year (p = 0.03). Conclusion: During a period marked by notable changes in the academic healthcare environment, the proportion of graduating Harvard Joint Center for Radiation Therapy residents pursuing academic careers has been declining; however, despite this decline, the retention rates in academia have increased.« less

Forecasting overhaul or replacement intervals based on estimated system failure intensity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gannon, James M.

1994-12-01

System reliability can be expressed in terms of the pattern of failure events over time. Assuming a nonhomogeneous Poisson process and Weibull intensity function for complex repairable system failures, the degree of system deterioration can be approximated. Maximum likelihood estimators (MLE's) for the system Rate of Occurrence of Failure (ROCOF) function are presented. Evaluating the integral of the ROCOF over annual usage intervals yields the expected number of annual system failures. By associating a cost of failure with the expected number of failures, budget and program policy decisions can be made based on expected future maintenance costs. Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the range and the distribution of the net present value and internal rate of return of alternative cash flows based on the distributions of the cost inputs and confidence intervals of the MLE's.

Early mobilization of patients who have had a hip or knee joint replacement reduces length of stay in hospital: a systematic review.

PubMed

Guerra, Mark L; Singh, Parminder J; Taylor, Nicholas F

2015-09-01

To systematically review the effect of early mobilization after hip or knee joint replacement surgery on length of stay in an acute hospital. Randomized controlled trials were selected from electronic databases based on inclusion criterion requiring an experimental group mobilizing (sitting out of bed/walking) earlier than a comparison group post joint replacement surgery of the hip or knee in an acute hospital. Clinically homogeneous data were analyzed with meta-analysis. Five randomized controlled trials (totaling 622 participants) were included for review. A meta-analysis of 5 trials found a reduced length of stay of 1.8 days (95% confidence interval 1.1 to 2.6) in favor of the experimental group. In 4 of the 5 trials the experimental group first sat out of bed within 24 hours post operatively. In 4 of the 5 trials the experimental group first walked within 48 hours post operatively. Individual trials reported benefits in range of motion, muscle strength and health-related quality of life in favor of the experimental group. There were no differences in discharge destinations, incidence of negative outcomes or adverse events attributable to early mobilization when compared to the comparison groups. Early mobilization post hip or knee joint replacement surgery can result in a reduced length of stay of about 1.8 days. Trials that reported these positive results showed that early mobilization can be achieved within 24 hours of operation. This positive gain was achieved without an increase in negative outcomes. © The Author(s) 2014.

Decoded fMRI neurofeedback can induce bidirectional confidence changes within single participants.

PubMed

Cortese, Aurelio; Amano, Kaoru; Koizumi, Ai; Lau, Hakwan; Kawato, Mitsuo

2017-04-01

Neurofeedback studies using real-time functional magnetic resonance imaging (rt-fMRI) have recently incorporated the multi-voxel pattern decoding approach, allowing for fMRI to serve as a tool to manipulate fine-grained neural activity embedded in voxel patterns. Because of its tremendous potential for clinical applications, certain questions regarding decoded neurofeedback (DecNef) must be addressed. Specifically, can the same participants learn to induce neural patterns in opposite directions in different sessions? If so, how does previous learning affect subsequent induction effectiveness? These questions are critical because neurofeedback effects can last for months, but the short- to mid-term dynamics of such effects are unknown. Here we employed a within-subjects design, where participants underwent two DecNef training sessions to induce behavioural changes of opposing directionality (up or down regulation of perceptual confidence in a visual discrimination task), with the order of training counterbalanced across participants. Behavioral results indicated that the manipulation was strongly influenced by the order and the directionality of neurofeedback training. We applied nonlinear mathematical modeling to parametrize four main consequences of DecNef: main effect of change in confidence, strength of down-regulation of confidence relative to up-regulation, maintenance of learning effects, and anterograde learning interference. Modeling results revealed that DecNef successfully induced bidirectional confidence changes in different sessions within single participants. Furthermore, the effect of up- compared to down-regulation was more prominent, and confidence changes (regardless of the direction) were largely preserved even after a week-long interval. Lastly, the effect of the second session was markedly diminished as compared to the effect of the first session, indicating strong anterograde learning interference. These results are interpreted in the framework

An interval model updating strategy using interval response surface models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, Sheng-En; Zhang, Qiu-Hu; Ren, Wei-Xin

2015-08-01

Stochastic model updating provides an effective way of handling uncertainties existing in real-world structures. In general, probabilistic theories, fuzzy mathematics or interval analyses are involved in the solution of inverse problems. However in practice, probability distributions or membership functions of structural parameters are often unavailable due to insufficient information of a structure. At this moment an interval model updating procedure shows its superiority in the aspect of problem simplification since only the upper and lower bounds of parameters and responses are sought. To this end, this study develops a new concept of interval response surface models for the purpose of efficiently implementing the interval model updating procedure. The frequent interval overestimation due to the use of interval arithmetic can be maximally avoided leading to accurate estimation of parameter intervals. Meanwhile, the establishment of an interval inverse problem is highly simplified, accompanied by a saving of computational costs. By this means a relatively simple and cost-efficient interval updating process can be achieved. Lastly, the feasibility and reliability of the developed method have been verified against a numerical mass-spring system and also against a set of experimentally tested steel plates.

The dose delivery effect of the different Beam ON interval in FFF SBRT: TrueBEAM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tawonwong, T.; Suriyapee, S.; Oonsiri, S.; Sanghangthum, T.; Oonsiri, P.

2016-03-01

The purpose of this study is to determine the dose delivery effect of the different Beam ON interval in Flattening Filter Free Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy (FFF-SBRT). The three 10MV-FFF SBRT plans (2 half rotating Rapid Arc, 9 to10 Gray/Fraction) were selected and irradiated in three different intervals (100%, 50% and 25%) using the RPM gating system. The plan verification was performed by the ArcCHECK for gamma analysis and the ionization chamber for point dose measurement. The dose delivery time of each interval were observed. For gamma analysis (2%&2mm criteria), the average percent pass of all plans for 100%, 50% and 25% intervals were 86.1±3.3%, 86.0±3.0% and 86.1±3.3%, respectively. For point dose measurement, the average ratios of each interval to the treatment planning were 1.012±0.015, 1.011±0.014 and 1.011±0.013 for 100%, 50% and 25% interval, respectively. The average dose delivery time was increasing from 74.3±5.0 second for 100% interval to 154.3±12.6 and 347.9±20.3 second for 50% and 25% interval, respectively. The same quality of the dose delivery from different Beam ON intervals in FFF-SBRT by TrueBEAM was illustrated. While the 100% interval represents the breath-hold treatment technique, the differences for the free-breathing using RPM gating system can be treated confidently.

[Sources of leader's confidence in organizations].

PubMed

Ikeda, Hiroshi; Furukawa, Hisataka

2006-04-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the sources of confidence that organization leaders had. As potential sources of the confidence, we focused on fulfillment of expectations made by self and others, reflection on good as well as bad job experiences, and awareness of job experiences in terms of commonality, differentiation, and multiple viewpoints. A questionnaire was administered to 170 managers of Japanese companies. Results were as follows: First, confidence in leaders was more strongly related to fulfillment of expectations made by self and others than reflection on and awareness of job experiences. Second, the confidence was weakly related to internal processing of job experiences, in the form of commonality awareness and reflection on good job experiences. And finally, years of managerial experiences had almost no relation to the confidence. These findings suggested that confidence in leaders was directly acquired from fulfillment of expectations made by self and others, rather than indirectly through internal processing of job experiences. Implications of the findings for leadership training were also discussed.

Medicaid payer status is associated with in-hospital morbidity and resource utilization following primary total joint arthroplasty.

PubMed

Browne, James A; Novicoff, Wendy M; D'Apuzzo, Michele R

2014-11-05

Previous reports suggest that there are major disparities in outcomes following total joint arthroplasty among patients with different payer statuses. The explanation for these differences is largely unknown and may result from confounding variables. The Affordable Care Act expansion of Medicaid coverage in 2014 makes the examination of these disparities particularly relevant. The Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP) Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) database was used to identify patients who had undergone primary hip or knee arthroplasty from 2002 through 2011. Complications, costs, and length of hospital stay for patients with Medicaid were compared with those for non-Medicaid patients. Each Medicaid patient was matched to a non-Medicaid patient according to age, sex, race, type of total joint arthroplasty, procedure year, hospital characteristics, smoking status, and all twenty-nine comorbidities defined in the NIS-modified Elixhauser comorbidity measure. It was determined that 191,911 patients who underwent total joint arthroplasty had Medicaid payer status (2.8% of the entire total joint arthroplasty population), and 107,335 (56%) of these Medicaid patients were matched one to one to a non-Medicaid patient for all variables for the adjusted analysis. After matching, Medicaid patients were found to have a higher prevalence of postoperative in-hospital infection (odds ratio [OR], 1.7; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.3 to 2.1), wound dehiscence (OR, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.4 to 3.4), and hematoma or seroma (OR, 1.3; 95% CI, 1.2 to 1.4) but a lower risk of cardiac complications (OR, 0.7; CI, 0.6 to 0.9). The length of the hospital stay was longer, total cost was higher, and discharge to an inpatient facility was more frequent for patients with Medicaid status (p < 0.01). Compared with non-Medicaid patients, Medicaid patients have a significantly higher risk for certain postoperative in-hospital complications and consume more resources following total joint

30-day mortality and readmission after hemorrhagic stroke among Medicare beneficiaries in Joint Commission primary stroke center-certified and noncertified hospitals.

PubMed

Lichtman, Judith H; Jones, Sara B; Leifheit-Limson, Erica C; Wang, Yun; Goldstein, Larry B

2011-12-01

Ischemic stroke patients treated at Joint Commission Primary Stroke Center (JC-PSC)-certified hospitals have better outcomes. Data reflecting the impact of JC-PSC status on outcomes after hemorrhagic stroke are limited. We determined whether 30-day mortality and readmission rates after hemorrhagic stroke differed for patients treated at JC-PSC-certified versus noncertified hospitals. The study included all fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 years or older with a primary discharge diagnosis of subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) or intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) in 2006. Covariate-adjusted logistic and Cox proportional hazards regression assessed the effect of care at a JC-PSC-certified hospital on 30-day mortality and readmission. There were 2305 SAH and 8708 ICH discharges from JC-PSC-certified hospitals and 3892 SAH and 22 564 ICH discharges from noncertified hospitals. Unadjusted in-hospital mortality (SAH: 27.5% versus 33.2%, P<0.0001; ICH: 27.9% versus 29.6%, P=0.003) and 30-day mortality (SAH: 35.1% versus 44.0%, P<0.0001; ICH: 39.8% versus 42.4%, P<0.0001) were lower in JC-PSC hospitals, but 30-day readmission rates were similar (SAH: 17.0% versus 17.0%, P=0.97; ICH: 16.0% versus 15.5%, P=0.29). Risk-adjusted 30-day mortality was 34% lower (odds ratio, 0.66; 95% confidence interval, 0.58-0.76) after SAH and 14% lower (odds ratio, 0.86; 95% confidence interval, 0.80-0.92) after ICH for patients discharged from JC-PSC-certified hospitals. There was no difference in 30-day risk-adjusted readmission rates for SAH or ICH based on JC-PSC status. Patients treated at JC-PSC-certified hospitals had lower risk-adjusted mortality rates for both SAH and ICH but similar 30-day readmission rates as compared with noncertified hospitals.

Meat consumption and risk of primary hip and knee joint replacement due to osteoarthritis: a prospective cohort study

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background There is emerging evidence for a beneficial effect of meat consumption on the musculoskeletal system. However, whether it affects the risk of knee and hip osteoarthritis is unknown. We performed a prospective cohort study to examine the relationship between meat consumption and risk of primary hip and knee replacement for osteoarthritis. Methods Eligible 35,331 participants were selected from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study recruited during 1990-1994. Consumption of fresh red meat, processed meat, chicken, and fish was assessed using a food frequency questionnaire. Primary hip and knee replacement for osteoarthritis during 2001-2005 was determined by linking the cohort records to the Australian National Joint Replacement Registry. Results There was a negative dose-response relationship between fresh red meat consumption and the risk of hip replacement (hazard ratio (HR) 0.94 per increase in intake of one time/week, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.89-0.98). In contrast, there was no association with knee replacement risk (HR 0.98, 95% CI 0.94-1.02). Consumption of processed meat, chicken and fish were not associated with risk of hip or knee replacement. Conclusion A high level consumption of fresh red meat was associated with a decreased risk of hip, but not knee, joint replacement for osteoarthritis. One possible mechanism to explain these differential associations may be via an effect of meat intake on bone strength and hip shape. Further confirmatory studies are warranted. PMID:21235820

Meat consumption and risk of primary hip and knee joint replacement due to osteoarthritis: a prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Wang, Yuanyuan; Simpson, Julie Anne; Wluka, Anita E; English, Dallas R; Giles, Graham G; Graves, Stephen; Cicuttini, Flavia M

2011-01-16

There is emerging evidence for a beneficial effect of meat consumption on the musculoskeletal system. However, whether it affects the risk of knee and hip osteoarthritis is unknown. We performed a prospective cohort study to examine the relationship between meat consumption and risk of primary hip and knee replacement for osteoarthritis. Eligible 35,331 participants were selected from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study recruited during 1990-1994. Consumption of fresh red meat, processed meat, chicken, and fish was assessed using a food frequency questionnaire. Primary hip and knee replacement for osteoarthritis during 2001-2005 was determined by linking the cohort records to the Australian National Joint Replacement Registry. There was a negative dose-response relationship between fresh red meat consumption and the risk of hip replacement (hazard ratio (HR) 0.94 per increase in intake of one time/week, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.89-0.98). In contrast, there was no association with knee replacement risk (HR 0.98, 95% CI 0.94-1.02). Consumption of processed meat, chicken and fish were not associated with risk of hip or knee replacement. A high level consumption of fresh red meat was associated with a decreased risk of hip, but not knee, joint replacement for osteoarthritis. One possible mechanism to explain these differential associations may be via an effect of meat intake on bone strength and hip shape. Further confirmatory studies are warranted.

Confidence-Building Measures in Philippine Security.

DTIC Science & Technology

1998-05-01

service or government agency. STRATEGY RESEARCH PROJECT i CONFIDENCE-BUILDING MEASURES IN PHILIPPINE SECURITY BY LIEUTENANT COLONEL RAMON G...WAR COLLEGE, CARLISLE BARRACKS, PA 17013-5050 rimo*’^»®*raBl USAWC STRATEGY RESEARCH PROJECT CONFIDENCE-BUILDING MEASURES IN PHILIPPINE...Colonel Ramon Santos, Philippine Army TITLE: Confidence-Building Measures in Philippine Security FORMAT: Strategy Research Project DATE: 1

Interpregnancy Interval and Adverse Pregnancy Outcomes: An Analysis of Successive Pregnancies.

PubMed

Hanley, Gillian E; Hutcheon, Jennifer A; Kinniburgh, Brooke A; Lee, Lily

2017-03-01

To examine the association between interpregnancy interval and maternal-neonate health when matching women to their successive pregnancies to control for differences in maternal risk factors and compare these results with traditional unmatched designs. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 38,178 women with three or more deliveries (two or greater interpregnancy intervals) between 2000 and 2015 in British Columbia, Canada. We examined interpregnancy interval (0-5, 6-11, 12-17, 18-23 [reference], 24-59, and 60 months or greater) in relation to neonatal outcomes (preterm birth [less than 37 weeks of gestation], small-for-gestational-age birth [less than the 10th centile], use of neonatal intensive care, low birth weight [less than 2,500 g]) and maternal outcomes (gestational diabetes, beginning the subsequent pregnancy obese [body mass index 30 or greater], and preeclampsia-eclampsia). We used conditional logistic regression to compare interpregnancy intervals within the same mother and unconditional (unmatched) logistic regression to enable comparison with prior research. Analyses using the traditional unmatched design showed significantly increased risks associated with short interpregnancy intervals (eg, there were 232 preterm births [12.8%] in 0-5 months compared with 501 [8.2%] in the 18-23 months reference group; adjusted odds ratio [OR] for preterm birth 1.53, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.35-1.73). However, these risks were eliminated in within-woman matched analyses (adjusted OR for preterm birth 0.85, 95% CI 0.71-1.02). Matched results indicated that short interpregnancy intervals were significantly associated with increased risk of gestational diabetes (adjusted OR 1.35, 95% CI 1.02-1.80 for 0-5 months) and beginning the subsequent pregnancy obese (adjusted OR 1.61, 95% CI 1.05-2.45 for 0-5 months and adjusted OR 1.43, 95% CI 1.10-1.87 for 6-11 months). Previously reported associations between short interpregnancy intervals and adverse neonatal

Experimental congruence of interval scale production from paired comparisons and ranking for image evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Handley, John C.; Babcock, Jason S.; Pelz, Jeff B.

2003-12-01

Image evaluation tasks are often conducted using paired comparisons or ranking. To elicit interval scales, both methods rely on Thurstone's Law of Comparative Judgment in which objects closer in psychological space are more often confused in preference comparisons by a putative discriminal random process. It is often debated whether paired comparisons and ranking yield the same interval scales. An experiment was conducted to assess scale production using paired comparisons and ranking. For this experiment a Pioneer Plasma Display and Apple Cinema Display were used for stimulus presentation. Observers performed rank order and paired comparisons tasks on both displays. For each of five scenes, six images were created by manipulating attributes such as lightness, chroma, and hue using six different settings. The intention was to simulate the variability from a set of digital cameras or scanners. Nineteen subjects, (5 females, 14 males) ranging from 19-51 years of age participated in this experiment. Using a paired comparison model and a ranking model, scales were estimated for each display and image combination yielding ten scale pairs, ostensibly measuring the same psychological scale. The Bradley-Terry model was used for the paired comparisons data and the Bradley-Terry-Mallows model was used for the ranking data. Each model was fit using maximum likelihood estimation and assessed using likelihood ratio tests. Approximate 95% confidence intervals were also constructed using likelihood ratios. Model fits for paired comparisons were satisfactory for all scales except those from two image/display pairs; the ranking model fit uniformly well on all data sets. Arguing from overlapping confidence intervals, we conclude that paired comparisons and ranking produce no conflicting decisions regarding ultimate ordering of treatment preferences, but paired comparisons yield greater precision at the expense of lack-of-fit.

Adolescent confidence in immunisation: Assessing and comparing attitudes of adolescents and adults.

PubMed

Wang, Bing; Giles, Lynne; Afzali, Hossein Haji Ali; Clarke, Michelle; Ratcliffe, Julie; Chen, Gang; Marshall, Helen

2016-11-04

There is limited knowledge of adolescent views and attitudes towards immunisation. Our study investigated adolescent attitudes to immunisation and compared differences in vaccination attitudes between adolescents and adults. This study was a cross-sectional, national online survey. Recruitment was stratified by state and gender to ensure findings were nationally representative. Regression analyses were performed to assess and compare adolescent and adult views on vaccine benefits, community protection, risks, side effects, sources of information, and decision-making preference. In 2013, 502 adolescents and 2003 adults completed the online survey. Lower levels of vaccine confidence were observed in adolescents with adolescents less likely to believe vaccines are beneficial and/or safe compared to adults (p=0.043). Compared to females, males were less confident of vaccine benefits (p<0.05) but less concern about vaccine side effects (p<0.05). Adolescents were more concerned about vaccine side effects than adults for pain (p<0.001), redness or swelling (p<0.001), and fever (p=0.006). Adolescents were less likely than adults to consider health professionals (p<0.001) and the media (e.g. internet) (p=0.010) as important sources of information, and were more likely to seek information from social networks (p<0.001) including families and schools. Although 62.0% of adolescents agreed that parents should make the decision about vaccination for them, adolescents were more likely to prefer a joint decision with parents (p<0.001) or by themselves (p=0.007) compared with adults. Adolescents have a lesser understanding of vaccine safety and benefits than adults and have higher concerns about potential vaccine reactions. Improving adolescent awareness and knowledge of the benefits and risks of vaccination through school-based educational programs may improve confidence in and uptake of vaccines for adolescents and increase vaccine confidence in the next generation of parents

On-line confidence monitoring during decision making.

PubMed

Dotan, Dror; Meyniel, Florent; Dehaene, Stanislas

2018-02-01

Humans can readily assess their degree of confidence in their decisions. Two models of confidence computation have been proposed: post hoc computation using post-decision variables and heuristics, versus online computation using continuous assessment of evidence throughout the decision-making process. Here, we arbitrate between these theories by continuously monitoring finger movements during a manual sequential decision-making task. Analysis of finger kinematics indicated that subjects kept separate online records of evidence and confidence: finger deviation continuously reflected the ongoing accumulation of evidence, whereas finger speed continuously reflected the momentary degree of confidence. Furthermore, end-of-trial finger speed predicted the post-decisional subjective confidence rating. These data indicate that confidence is computed on-line, throughout the decision process. Speed-confidence correlations were previously interpreted as a post-decision heuristics, whereby slow decisions decrease subjective confidence, but our results suggest an adaptive mechanism that involves the opposite causality: by slowing down when unconfident, participants gain time to improve their decisions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effect of chiropractic manipulation on vertical jump height in young female athletes with talocrural joint dysfunction: a single-blind randomized clinical pilot trial.

PubMed

Hedlund, Sofia; Nilsson, Hans; Lenz, Markus; Sundberg, Tobias

2014-02-01

The main objective of this pilot study was to explore the effect of chiropractic high-velocity, low-amplitude (HVLA) manipulation on vertical jump height in young female athletes with talocrural joint dysfunction. This was a randomized assessor-blind clinical pilot trial. Twenty-two female handball players with talocrural joint dysfunction were randomized to receive either HVLA manipulation (n = 11) or sham treatment (n = 11) once a week during a 3-week period. The main outcome was change in vertical jump height from baseline to follow-up within and between groups after 3 weeks. Nineteen athletes completed the study. After 3 weeks, the group receiving HVLA manipulation (n = 11) had a statistically significant mean (SD) improvement in vertical jump height of 1.07 (1.23) cm (P = .017). The sham treatment group (n = 8) improved their vertical jump height by 0.59 (2.03) cm (P = .436). The between groups' change was 0.47 cm (95% confidence interval, -1.31 to 2.26; P = .571) in favor of the group receiving HVLA manipulation. Blinding and sham procedures were feasible, and there were no reported adverse events. The results of this pilot study show that a larger-scale study is feasible. Preliminary results suggest that chiropractic HVLA manipulation may increase vertical jump height in young female athletes with talocrural joint dysfunction. However, the clinical result in favor of HVLA manipulation compared with sham treatment needs statistical confirmation in a larger randomized clinical trial. Copyright © 2014 National University of Health Sciences. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Factors related to the joint probability of flooding on paired streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koltun, G.F.; Sherwood, J.M.

1998-01-01

increases with increases in drainage area ratio, mean drainage area, and centroid angle adjusted 30 degrees. Logistic-regression equations were developed, which can be used to estimate the probability that streamflows at two streams jointly equal or exceed the 2-year flood threshold given that the streamflow at one of the two streams equals or exceeds the 2-year flood threshold. The logistic-regression equations are applicable to stream pairs in Ohio (and border areas of adjacent states) that are unregulated, free of significant urban influences, and have characteristics similar to those of the 304 gaged stream pairs used in the logistic-regression analyses. Contingency tables were constructed and analyzed to provide information about the bivariate distribution of floods on paired streams. The contingency tables showed that the percentage of trials in which both streams in the pair concurrently flood at identical recurrence-interval ranges generally increased as centroid distances decreased and was greatest for stream pairs with adjusted centroid angles greater than or equal to 60 degrees and drainage area ratios greater than or equal to 0.01. Also, as centroid distance increased, streamflow at one stream in the pair was more likely to be in a less than 2-year recurrence-interval range when streamflow at the second stream was in a 2-year or greater recurrence-interval range.

Binary Interval Search: a scalable algorithm for counting interval intersections.

PubMed

Layer, Ryan M; Skadron, Kevin; Robins, Gabriel; Hall, Ira M; Quinlan, Aaron R

2013-01-01

The comparison of diverse genomic datasets is fundamental to understand genome biology. Researchers must explore many large datasets of genome intervals (e.g. genes, sequence alignments) to place their experimental results in a broader context and to make new discoveries. Relationships between genomic datasets are typically measured by identifying intervals that intersect, that is, they overlap and thus share a common genome interval. Given the continued advances in DNA sequencing technologies, efficient methods for measuring statistically significant relationships between many sets of genomic features are crucial for future discovery. We introduce the Binary Interval Search (BITS) algorithm, a novel and scalable approach to interval set intersection. We demonstrate that BITS outperforms existing methods at counting interval intersections. Moreover, we show that BITS is intrinsically suited to parallel computing architectures, such as graphics processing units by illustrating its utility for efficient Monte Carlo simulations measuring the significance of relationships between sets of genomic intervals. https://github.com/arq5x/bits.

Pediatric reference intervals for random urine calcium, phosphorus and total protein.

PubMed

Slev, Patricia R; Bunker, Ashley M; Owen, William E; Roberts, William L

2010-09-01

The aim of this study was to establish age appropriate reference intervals for calcium (Ca), phosphorus (P) and total protein (UTP) in random urine samples. All analytes were measured using the Roche MODULAR P analyzer and normalized to creatinine (Cr). Our study cohort consisted of 674 boys and 728 girls between 7 and 17 years old (y.o.), which allowed us to determine the central 95% reference intervals with 90% confidence intervals by non-parametric analysis partitioned by both gender and 2-year age intervals for each analyte [i.e. boys in age group 7-9 years (7-9 boys); girls in age group 7-9 years (7-9 girls), etc.]. Results for the upper limits of the central 95% reference interval were: for Ca/Cr, 0.27 (16,17 y.o.) to 0.46 mg/mg (7-9 y.o.) for the girls and 0.26 (16,17 y.o.) to 0.43 mg/mg (7-9 y.o.) for the boys; for P/Cr, 0.85 (16,17 y.o.) to 1.44 mg/mg (7-9 y.o.) for the girls and 0.87 (16,17 y.o.) to 1.68 mg/mg (7-9 y.o.) for the boys; for UTP/Cr, 0.30 (7-9 y.o.) to 0.34 mg/mg (10-12 y.o.) for the girls and 0.19 (16,17, y.o.) to 0.26 mg/mg (13-15 y.o.) for the boys. Upper reference limits decreased with increasing age, and age was a statistically significant variable for all analytes. Eight separate age- and gender-specific reference intervals are proposed per analyte.

Sample size, confidence, and contingency judgement.

PubMed

Clément, Mélanie; Mercier, Pierre; Pastò, Luigi

2002-06-01

According to statistical models, the acquisition function of contingency judgement is due to confidence increasing with sample size. According to associative models, the function reflects the accumulation of associative strength on which the judgement is based. Which view is right? Thirty university students assessed the relation between a fictitious medication and a symptom of skin discoloration in conditions that varied sample size (4, 6, 8 or 40 trials) and contingency (delta P = .20, .40, .60 or .80). Confidence was also collected. Contingency judgement was lower for smaller samples, while confidence level correlated inversely with sample size. This dissociation between contingency judgement and confidence contradicts the statistical perspective.

Joint distraction for thumb carpometacarpal osteoarthritis: a feasibility study with 1-year follow-up.

PubMed

Spaans, Anne J; Minnen, L Paul van; Braakenburg, Assa; Mink van der Molen, Aebele B

2017-08-01

The purpose of this pilot study was to evaluate the feasibility of joint distraction of the first carpometacarpal (CMC1) joint in patients with CMC1 osteoarthritis (OA). An external joint distractor was placed over the CMC1 joint by K-wire fixation in the trapezium and the metacarpal. The joint was distracted 3 mm during surgery. The device was then kept in place for 8 weeks. Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder, and Hand (DASH) score, Michigan Hand Outcome Questionnaire (MHQ), Visual Analogue Scale (VAS), and grip strength were recorded preoperatively and at set postoperative intervals. Five female patients with an average age of 53 years (range = 41-61) were included. One year postoperatively, average DASH, MHQ, and VAS scores improved compared to preoperative values; DASH 53 to 27, MHQ 48 to 76, and VAS pain 48 to 14. There were no technical problems associated with the device. One patient had a local pin site infection treated successfully with oral antibiotics. This study concludes that joint distraction of the osteoarthritic CMC1 joint is technically feasible. In this small, prospective pilot study the majority of the results were favourable during short-term follow-up.

The Effect of Adaptive Confidence Strategies in Computer-Assisted Instruction on Learning and Learner Confidence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Warren, Richard Daniel

2012-01-01

The purpose of this research was to investigate the effects of including adaptive confidence strategies in instructionally sound computer-assisted instruction (CAI) on learning and learner confidence. Seventy-one general educational development (GED) learners recruited from various GED learning centers at community colleges in the southeast United…

Variation in polyp size estimation among endoscopists and impact on surveillance intervals.

PubMed

Chaptini, Louis; Chaaya, Adib; Depalma, Fedele; Hunter, Krystal; Peikin, Steven; Laine, Loren

2014-10-01

Accurate estimation of polyp size is important because it is used to determine the surveillance interval after polypectomy. To evaluate the variation and accuracy in polyp size estimation among endoscopists and the impact on surveillance intervals after polypectomy. Web-based survey. A total of 873 members of the American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy. Participants watched video recordings of 4 polypectomies and were asked to estimate the polyp sizes. Proportion of participants with polyp size estimates within 20% of the correct measurement and the frequency of incorrect surveillance intervals based on inaccurate size estimates. Polyp size estimates were within 20% of the correct value for 1362 (48%) of 2812 estimates (range 39%-59% for the 4 polyps). Polyp size was overestimated by >20% in 889 estimates (32%, range 15%-49%) and underestimated by >20% in 561 (20%, range 4%-46%) estimates. Incorrect surveillance intervals because of overestimation or underestimation occurred in 272 (10%) of the 2812 estimates (range 5%-14%). Participants in a private practice setting overestimated the size of 3 or of all 4 polyps by >20% more often than participants in an academic setting (difference = 7%; 95% confidence interval, 1%-11%). Survey design with the use of video clips. Substantial overestimation and underestimation of polyp size occurs with visual estimation leading to incorrect surveillance intervals in 10% of cases. Our findings support routine use of measurement tools to improve polyp size estimates. Copyright © 2014 American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Clinical outcomes of the Cadenat procedure in the treatment of acromioclavicular joint dislocations.

PubMed

Moriyama, Hiroaki; Gotoh, Masafumi; Mitsui, Yasuhiro; Yoshikawa, Eiichirou; Uryu, Takuya; Okawa, Takahiro; Higuchi, Fujio; Shirahama, Masahiro; Shiba, Naoto

2014-01-01

We report our clinical experience using the modified Cadenat method to treat acromioclavicular joint dislocation, and discuss the usefulness of this method. This study examined 6 shoulders in 6 patients (5 males, 1 female) who were diagnosed with acromioclavicular joint dislocation and treated with the modified Cadenat method at our hospital. Average age at onset was 49.3 years (26-78 years), average time interval from injury until surgery was 263.8 days (10 to 1100 days), and the average follow-up period was 21.7 months (12 to 42 months). Post-operative assessment was performed using plain radiographs to determine shoulder joint dislocation rate and Japanese Orthopaedic Association (JOA) score. The average post-operative JOA score was 94.1 points (91 to 100 points). The acromioclavicular joint dislocation rate improved from 148.7% (72 to 236%) before surgery to 28.6% (0 to 60%) after surgery. Conservative treatment has been reported to achieve good outcomes in acromioclavicular joint dislocations. However, many patients also experience chronic pain or a sensation of fatigue upon putting the extremity in an elevated posture, and therefore ensuring the stability of the acromioclavicular joint is crucial for highly active patients. In this study, we treated acromioclavicular joint dislocations by the modified Cadenat method, and were able to achieve favorable outcomes.

Cost-effectiveness of minimally invasive sacroiliac joint fusion

PubMed Central

Cher, Daniel J; Frasco, Melissa A; Arnold, Renée JG; Polly, David W

2016-01-01

Background Sacroiliac joint (SIJ) disorders are common in patients with chronic lower back pain. Minimally invasive surgical options have been shown to be effective for the treatment of chronic SIJ dysfunction. Objective To determine the cost-effectiveness of minimally invasive SIJ fusion. Methods Data from two prospective, multicenter, clinical trials were used to inform a Markov process cost-utility model to evaluate cumulative 5-year health quality and costs after minimally invasive SIJ fusion using triangular titanium implants or non-surgical treatment. The analysis was performed from a third-party perspective. The model specifically incorporated variation in resource utilization observed in the randomized trial. Multiple one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. Results SIJ fusion was associated with a gain of approximately 0.74 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) at a cost of US$13,313 per QALY gained. In multiple one-way sensitivity analyses all scenarios resulted in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) <$26,000/QALY. Probabilistic analyses showed a high degree of certainty that the maximum ICER for SIJ fusion was less than commonly selected thresholds for acceptability (mean ICER =$13,687, 95% confidence interval $5,162–$28,085). SIJ fusion provided potential cost savings per QALY gained compared to non-surgical treatment after a treatment horizon of greater than 13 years. Conclusion Compared to traditional non-surgical treatments, SIJ fusion is a cost-effective, and, in the long term, cost-saving strategy for the treatment of SIJ dysfunction due to degenerative sacroiliitis or SIJ disruption. PMID:26719717

The effect of migration of instantaneous centre of knee orthosis rotation during gait - in vivo displacement measurements in two experimental variants.

PubMed

Bogucki, Artur J

2014-01-01

The knee joint is a bicondylar hinge two-level joint with six degrees of freedom. The location of the functional axis of flexion-extension motion is still a subject of research and discussions. During the swing phase, the femoral condyles do not have direct contact with the tibial articular surfaces and the intra-articular space narrows with increasing weight bearing. The geometry of knee movements is determined by the shape of articular surfaces. A digital recording of the gait of a healthy volunteer was analysed. In the first experimental variant, the subject was wearing a knee orthosis controlling flexion and extension with a hinge-type single-axis joint. In the second variant, the examination involved a hinge-type double-axis orthosis. Statistical analysis involved mathematically calculated values of displacement P. Scatter graphs with a fourth-order polynomial trend line with a confidence interval of 0.95 due to noise were prepared for each experimental variant. In Variant 1, the average displacement was 15.1 mm, the number of tests was 43, standard deviation was 8.761, and the confidence interval was 2.2. The maximum value of displacement was 30.9 mm and the minimum value was 0.7 mm. In Variant 2, the average displacement was 13.4 mm, the number of tests was 44, standard deviation was 7.275, and the confidence interval was 1.8. The maximum value of displacement was 30.2 mm and the minimum value was 3.4 mm. An analysis of moving averages for both experimental variants revealed that displacement trends for both types of orthosis were compatible from the mid-stance to the mid-swing phase. 1. The method employed in the experiment allows for determining the alignment between the axis of the knee joint and that of shin and thigh orthoses. 2. Migration of the single and double-axis orthoses during the gait cycle exceeded 3 cm. 3. During weight bearing, the double-axis orthosis was positioned more correctly. 4. The study results may be helpful in designing new hinge

Binary Interval Search: a scalable algorithm for counting interval intersections

PubMed Central

Layer, Ryan M.; Skadron, Kevin; Robins, Gabriel; Hall, Ira M.; Quinlan, Aaron R.

2013-01-01

Motivation: The comparison of diverse genomic datasets is fundamental to understand genome biology. Researchers must explore many large datasets of genome intervals (e.g. genes, sequence alignments) to place their experimental results in a broader context and to make new discoveries. Relationships between genomic datasets are typically measured by identifying intervals that intersect, that is, they overlap and thus share a common genome interval. Given the continued advances in DNA sequencing technologies, efficient methods for measuring statistically significant relationships between many sets of genomic features are crucial for future discovery. Results: We introduce the Binary Interval Search (BITS) algorithm, a novel and scalable approach to interval set intersection. We demonstrate that BITS outperforms existing methods at counting interval intersections. Moreover, we show that BITS is intrinsically suited to parallel computing architectures, such as graphics processing units by illustrating its utility for efficient Monte Carlo simulations measuring the significance of relationships between sets of genomic intervals. Availability: https://github.com/arq5x/bits. Contact: arq5x@virginia.edu Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. PMID:23129298

Estimating the Time Interval Between Exposure to the World Trade Center Disaster and Incident Diagnoses of Obstructive Airway Disease

PubMed Central

Glaser, Michelle S.; Webber, Mayris P.; Zeig-Owens, Rachel; Weakley, Jessica; Liu, Xiaoxue; Ye, Fen; Cohen, Hillel W.; Aldrich, Thomas K.; Kelly, Kerry J.; Nolan, Anna; Weiden, Michael D.; Prezant, David J.; Hall, Charles B.

2014-01-01

Respiratory disorders are associated with occupational and environmental exposures. The latency period between exposure and disease onset remains uncertain. The World Trade Center (WTC) disaster presents a unique opportunity to describe the latency period for obstructive airway disease (OAD) diagnoses. This prospective cohort study of New York City firefighters compared the timing and incidence of physician-diagnosed OAD relative to WTC exposure. Exposure was categorized by WTC arrival time as high (on the morning of September 11, 2001), moderate (after noon on September 11, 2001, or on September 12, 2001), or low (during September 13–24, 2001). We modeled relative rates and 95% confidence intervals of OAD incidence by exposure over the first 5 years after September 11, 2001, estimating the times of change in the relative rate with change point models. We observed a change point at 15 months after September 11, 2001. Before 15 months, the relative rate for the high- versus low-exposure group was 3.96 (95% confidence interval: 2.51, 6.26) and thereafter, it was 1.76 (95% confidence interval: 1.26, 2.46). Incident OAD was associated with WTC exposure for at least 5 years after September 11, 2001. There were higher rates of new-onset OAD among the high-exposure group during the first 15 months and, to a lesser extent, throughout follow-up. This difference in relative rate by exposure occurred despite full and free access to health care for all WTC-exposed firefighters, demonstrating the persistence of WTC-associated OAD risk. PMID:24980522

Confidant Relations of the Aged.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tigges, Leann M.; And Others

The confidant relationship is a qualitatively distinct dimension of the emotional support system of the aged, yet the composition of the confidant network has been largely neglected in research on aging. Persons (N=940) 60 years of age and older were interviewed about their socio-environmental setting. From the enumeration of their relatives,…

Automated joint space width quantification of hand and wrist joints: a proof of concept study.

PubMed

Huo, Yinghe; Veldhuizen, Renske D; van der Heijde, Desiree M; Besselink, Nick J; Jacobs, Johannes W G; van Laar, Jacob M; Viergever, Max A; Vincken, Koen L; Lafeber, Floris P; de Hair, Maria J H

2016-01-01

To compare as proof of concept the sensitivity to change of automated quantification of radiographic wrist and hand joint space width (JSW) with scoring JSW according to the Sharp/van der Heijde scoring method (SHS) in two strategy groups of a treat-to-target and tight-control early rheumatoid arthritis (RA) study. Digital radiographs were assessed for JSW changes of 134 patients of the 236 patients participating in the second Computer Assisted Management in Early Rheumatoid Arthritis trial, of whom both baseline and year 2 radiographs were available (year 1 radiographs n=125). Of those 134 patients, 70 started with methotrexate and prednisone (MTX+Pred) and 64 with MTX and placebo (MTX+Plac). JSW change over 1 and 2 years of the hands and wrists was assessed, applying both the joint space narrowing (JSN) subscore of the SHS by 2 readers and the automated assessment with the JSW quantification software 'JSQ'. For both methods, progression of JSW change of the hand and wrist was analysed using linear mixed modelling (dependent variable 'JSW', factor 'strategy group', covariate 'follow-up time in years', interaction term 'strategy group*follow-up time'; radiographs of baseline, year 1 and year 2 were used). For each method the standardised mean difference (SMD) for the change in JSW from baseline to year 2 between the treatment strategies was obtained using a non-parametric method. Patient characteristics of the current subpopulation were similar to those of the whole study population. JSN of the hand and wrist according to SHS at 2 years was present in 16 vs. 23% in the MTX+Pred group vs. the MTX+Plac group. The mean yearly progression rates of JSW change of the hands and wrists using JSQ were -0.00mm (95% confidence interval (CI) -0.01; 0.01) for MTX+Pred vs. -0.02mm (95%CI -0.03; -0.01) for MTX+Plac, p=0.045, and using SHS JSN they were 0.19 units (95%CI 0.09; 0.30) vs. 0.30 units (95%CI 0.14; 0.45) for MTX+Pred vs. MTX+Plac, p=0.271. The SMD for the change from

Genome-wide detection of intervals of genetic heterogeneity associated with complex traits

PubMed Central

Llinares-López, Felipe; Grimm, Dominik G.; Bodenham, Dean A.; Gieraths, Udo; Sugiyama, Mahito; Rowan, Beth; Borgwardt, Karsten

2015-01-01

Motivation: Genetic heterogeneity, the fact that several sequence variants give rise to the same phenotype, is a phenomenon that is of the utmost interest in the analysis of complex phenotypes. Current approaches for finding regions in the genome that exhibit genetic heterogeneity suffer from at least one of two shortcomings: (i) they require the definition of an exact interval in the genome that is to be tested for genetic heterogeneity, potentially missing intervals of high relevance, or (ii) they suffer from an enormous multiple hypothesis testing problem due to the large number of potential candidate intervals being tested, which results in either many false positives or a lack of power to detect true intervals. Results: Here, we present an approach that overcomes both problems: it allows one to automatically find all contiguous sequences of single nucleotide polymorphisms in the genome that are jointly associated with the phenotype. It also solves both the inherent computational efficiency problem and the statistical problem of multiple hypothesis testing, which are both caused by the huge number of candidate intervals. We demonstrate on Arabidopsis thaliana genome-wide association study data that our approach can discover regions that exhibit genetic heterogeneity and would be missed by single-locus mapping. Conclusions: Our novel approach can contribute to the genome-wide discovery of intervals that are involved in the genetic heterogeneity underlying complex phenotypes. Availability and implementation: The code can be obtained at: http://www.bsse.ethz.ch/mlcb/research/bioinformatics-and-computational-biology/sis.html. Contact: felipe.llinares@bsse.ethz.ch Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. PMID:26072488

Quantification of cardiorespiratory interactions based on joint symbolic dynamics.

PubMed

Kabir, Muammar M; Saint, David A; Nalivaiko, Eugene; Abbott, Derek; Voss, Andreas; Baumert, Mathias

2011-10-01

Cardiac and respiratory rhythms are highly nonlinear and nonstationary. As a result traditional time-domain techniques are often inadequate to characterize their complex dynamics. In this article, we introduce a novel technique to investigate the interactions between R-R intervals and respiratory phases based on their joint symbolic dynamics. To evaluate the technique, electrocardiograms (ECG) and respiratory signals were recorded in 13 healthy subjects in different body postures during spontaneous and controlled breathing. Herein, the R-R time series were extracted from ECG and respiratory phases were obtained from abdomen impedance belts using the Hilbert transform. Both time series were transformed into ternary symbol vectors based on the changes between two successive R-R intervals or respiratory phases. Subsequently, words of different symbol lengths were formed and the correspondence between the two series of words was determined to quantify the interaction between cardiac and respiratory cycles. To validate our results, respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA) was further studied using the phase-averaged characterization of the RSA pattern. The percentage of similarity of the sequence of symbols, between the respective words of the two series determined by joint symbolic dynamics, was significantly reduced in the upright position compared to the supine position (26.4 ± 4.7 vs. 20.5 ± 5.4%, p < 0.01). Similarly, RSA was also reduced during upright posture, but the difference was less significant (0.11 ± 0.02 vs. 0.08 ± 0.01 s, p < 0.05). In conclusion, joint symbolic dynamics provides a new efficient technique for the analysis of cardiorespiratory interaction that is highly sensitive to the effects of orthostatic challenge.

End-of-Life Conversation Game Increases Confidence for Having End-of-Life Conversations for Chaplains-in-Training.

PubMed

Van Scoy, Lauren Jodi; Watson-Martin, Elizabeth; Bohr, Tiffany A; Levi, Benjamin H; Green, Michael J

2018-04-01

Discussing end-of-life issues with patients is an essential role for chaplains. Few tools are available to help chaplains-in-training develop end-of-life communication skills. This study aimed to determine whether playing an end-of-life conversation game increases the confidence for chaplain-in-trainings to discuss end-of-life issues with patients. We used a convergent mixed methods design. Chaplains-in-training played the end-of-life conversation game twice over 2 weeks. For each game, pre- and postgame questionnaires measured confidence discussing end-of-life issues with patients and emotional affect. Between games, chaplains-in-training discussed end-of-life issues with an inpatient. One week after game 2, chaplains-in-training were individually interviewed. Quantitative data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and Wilcoxon rank-sum t tests. Content analysis identified interview themes. Quantitative and qualitative data sets were then integrated using a joint display. Twenty-three chaplains-in-training (52% female; 87% Caucasian; 70% were in year 1 of training) completed the study. Confidence scores (scale: 15-75; 75 = very confident) increased significantly after each game, increasing by 10.0 points from pregame 1 to postgame 2 ( P < .001). Positive affect subscale scores also increased significantly after each game, and shyness subscale scores decreased significantly after each game. Content analysis found that chaplains-in-training found the game to be a positive, useful experience and reported that playing twice was beneficial (not redundant). Mixed methods analysis suggest that an end-of-life conversation game is a useful tool that can increase chaplain-in-trainings' confidence for initiating end-of-life discussions with patients. A larger sample size is needed to confirm these findings.

Sex-specific reference intervals of hematologic and biochemical analytes in Sprague-Dawley rats using the nonparametric rank percentile method.

PubMed

He, Qili; Su, Guoming; Liu, Keliang; Zhang, Fangcheng; Jiang, Yong; Gao, Jun; Liu, Lida; Jiang, Zhongren; Jin, Minwu; Xie, Huiping

2017-01-01

Hematologic and biochemical analytes of Sprague-Dawley rats are commonly used to determine effects that were induced by treatment and to evaluate organ dysfunction in toxicological safety assessments, but reference intervals have not been well established for these analytes. Reference intervals as presently defined for these analytes in Sprague-Dawley rats have not used internationally recommended statistical method nor stratified by sex. Thus, we aimed to establish sex-specific reference intervals for hematologic and biochemical parameters in Sprague-Dawley rats according to Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute C28-A3 and American Society for Veterinary Clinical Pathology guideline. Hematology and biochemistry blood samples were collected from 500 healthy Sprague-Dawley rats (250 males and 250 females) in the control groups. We measured 24 hematologic analytes with the Sysmex XT-2100i analyzer, 9 biochemical analytes with the Olympus AU400 analyzer. We then determined statistically relevant sex partitions and calculated reference intervals, including corresponding 90% confidence intervals, using nonparametric rank percentile method. We observed that most hematologic and biochemical analytes of Sprague-Dawley rats were significantly influenced by sex. Males had higher hemoglobin, hematocrit, red blood cell count, red cell distribution width, mean corpuscular volume, mean corpuscular hemoglobin, white blood cell count, neutrophils, lymphocytes, monocytes, percentage of neutrophils, percentage of monocytes, alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase, and triglycerides compared to females. Females had higher mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration, plateletcrit, platelet count, eosinophils, percentage of lymphocytes, percentage of eosinophils, creatinine, glucose, total cholesterol and urea compared to males. Sex partition was required for most hematologic and biochemical analytes in Sprague-Dawley rats. We established sex-specific reference

Association of cardiac implantable electronic devices with survival in bifascicular block and prolonged PR interval on electrocardiogram.

PubMed

Moulki, Naeem; Kealhofer, Jessica V; Benditt, David G; Gravely, Amy; Vakil, Kairav; Garcia, Santiago; Adabag, Selcuk

2018-06-16

Bifascicular block and prolonged PR interval on the electrocardiogram (ECG) have been associated with complete heart block and sudden cardiac death. We sought to determine if cardiac implantable electronic devices (CIED) improve survival in these patients. We assessed survival in relation to CIED status among 636 consecutive patients with bifascicular block and prolonged PR interval on the ECG. In survival analyses, CIED was considered as a time-varying covariate. Average age was 76 ± 9 years, and 99% of the patients were men. A total of 167 (26%) underwent CIED (127 pacemaker only) implantation at baseline (n = 23) or during follow-up (n = 144). During 5.4 ± 3.8 years of follow-up, 83 (13%) patients developed complete or high-degree atrioventricular block and 375 (59%) died. Patients with a CIED had a longer survival compared to those without a CIED in the traditional, static analysis (log-rank p < 0.0001) but not when CIED was considered as a time-varying covariate (log-rank p = 0.76). In the multivariable model, patients with a CIED had a 34% lower risk of death (hazard ratio 0.66, 95% confidence interval 0.52-0.83; p = 0.001) than those without CIED in the traditional analysis but not in the time-varying covariate analysis (hazard ratio 1.05, 95% confidence interval 0.79-1.38; p = 0.76). Results did not change in the subgroup with a pacemaker only. Bifascicular block and prolonged PR interval on ECG are associated with a high incidence of complete atrioventricular block and mortality. However, CIED implantation does not have a significant influence on survival when time-varying nature of CIED implantation is considered.