Space Observations for Global Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rasool, S. I.

1991-01-01

There is now compelling evidence that man's activities are changing both the composition of the atmospheric and the global landscape quite drastically. The consequences of these changes on the global climate of the 21st century is currently a hotly debated subject. Global models of a coupled Earth-ocean-atmosphere system are still very primitive and progress in this area appears largely data limited, specially over the global biosphere. A concerted effort on monitoring biospheric functions on scales from pixels to global and days to decades needs to be coordinated on an international scale in order to address the questions related to global change. An international program of space observations and ground research was described.

Virtual trajectories, joint stiffness, and changes in the limb natural frequency during single-joint oscillatory movements.

PubMed

Latash, M L

1992-07-01

In the framework of the equilibrium-point hypothesis, virtual trajectories and patterns of joint stiffness were reconstructed during voluntary single-joint oscillatory movements in the elbow joint at a variety of frequencies and against two inertial loads. At low frequencies, virtual trajectories were in-phase with the actual joint trajectories. Joint stiffness changed at a doubled frequency. An increase in movement frequency and/or inertial load led to an increase in the difference between the peaks of the actual and virtual trajectories and in both peak and averaged values of joint stiffness. At a certain, critical frequency, virtual trajectory was nearly flat. Further increase in movement frequency led to a 180 degree phase shift between the actual and virtual trajectories. The assessed values of the natural frequency of the system "limb + manipulandum" were close to the critical frequencies for both low and high inertial loads. Peak levels and integrals of the electromyograms of two flexor and two extensor muscles changed monotonically with movement frequency without any special behavior at the critical frequencies. Nearly flat virtual trajectories at the natural frequency make physical sense as hypothetical control signals, unlike the electromyographic recordings, since a system at its natural frequency requires minimal central interference. Modulation of joint stiffness is assumed to be an important adaptive mechanism attenuating difference between the system's natural frequency and desired movement frequency. Virtual trajectory is considered a behavioral observable. Phase transitions between the virtual and actual trajectories are illustrations of behavioral discontinuities introduced by slow changes in a higher level control parameter, movement frequency. Relative phase shift between these two trajectories may be considered an order parameter.

Inter-observer agreement of standard joint count examination and disease global assessment in a cohort of Egyptian Rheumatoid Arthritis patients.

PubMed

El-Hadidi, Khaled; Gamal, Sherif M; Saad, Sahar

2017-12-21

To assess the inter-observer agreement of standard joint count between experienced Rheumatology professor (Prof) and young Rheumatology fellow (candidate), and to compare disease global assessment between professor, young candidate and patients. This study included one hundred rheumatoid arthritis patients. For all patients independent clinical evaluation was done by two rheumatologists (professor and candidate) for detection of tenderness in 28 joints and swelling in 26 joints. The study also involved global assessment of disease activity by the provider (Prof and candidate) (EGA) as well as by the patient (PGA). The EGA was determined without previous knowledge of the patient's laboratory test results. A highly significant accordance (correlation) between professor and candidate was found in both the number of tender joints (p<0.001) (r=0.946), and the number of swollen joints (p<0.001) (r=0.797). Regarding swollen joints, the highest agreement was in right knee (0.929), while poor agreement was found in the right 5th MCP (0.049). Regarding tender joints, the highest analogy was in the right elbow (0.899), in contrast to the left 3rd PIP (0.462) which showed the least congruence. Agreement study using kappa measurement for disease global assessment showed: moderate agreement (between professor and candidate) (0.405), fair agreement between (professor and patient) (0.213), fair agreement between (candidate and patient) (0.367). Inter-observer reliability was better for TJCs than SJCs. Regarding SJCs agreement was better in large joints such as the knees compared to the small joints such as the MCPs. Disease global assessment may show discrepancy between patients and physicians. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier España, S.L.U. and Sociedad Española de Reumatología y Colegio Mexicano de Reumatología. All rights reserved.

Clouds and Climate Change. Understanding Global Change: Earth Science and Human Impacts. Global Change Instruction Program.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shaw, Glenn E.

The Global Change Instruction Program was designed by college professors to fill a need for interdisciplinary materials on the emerging science of global change. This instructional module introduces the basic features and classifications of clouds and cloud cover, and explains how clouds form, what they are made of, what roles they play in…

Technology and Global Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grübler, Arnulf

2003-10-01

Technology and Global Change describes how technology has shaped society and the environment over the last 200 years. Technology has led us from the farm to the factory to the internet, and its impacts are now global. Technology has eliminated many problems, but has added many others (ranging from urban smog to the ozone hole to global warming). This book is the first to give a comprehensive description of the causes and impacts of technological change and how they relate to global environmental change. Written for specialists and nonspecialists alike, it will be useful for researchers and professors, as a textbook for graduate students, for people engaged in long-term policy planning in industry (strategic planning departments) and government (R & D and technology ministries, environment ministries), for environmental activists (NGOs), and for the wider public interested in history, technology, or environmental issues.

Gait changes after using a temporomandibular joint exerciser in patients who underwent lower limb joint surgery

PubMed Central

Chung, Gu-Young; Choi, Geun-Seok; Shin, Ki-Young; Park, Joon-Soo

2016-01-01

[Purpose] The improvements in gait of the patients with lower limb disease who used a temporomandibular joint (TMJ) exerciser were verified. [Subjects and Methods] Eleven subjects were included. Their mean age was 53.2 years. The lower limb joint angles before and after using the TMJ exerciser were measured using a gait analyzer. Before the gait experiment, the TMJ exerciser setting process and one-leg stance balance test (OLST) were repeated until the balance maintenance time improved. [Results] Because of the OLST, the mean change in the body center point after the subjects used the exerciser improved from 5.76 mm to 4.20 mm. When the TMJ exerciser was used, the joint angle range of the subjects approached that of the normal individuals. [Conclusion] According to the gait experiments, the angles of the subjects’ hips, knees, and ankle joints approached to those of the normal individuals after the subjects used the TMJ exerciser; however, the results did not completely match. The changes in the hip, knee, and ankle joint angles were statistically significant, which confirm the usefulness of the TMJ exerciser. PMID:27313377

Correlation between MRI evidence of degenerative condylar surface changes, induction of articular disc displacement and pathological joint sounds in the temporomandibular joint.

PubMed

Honda, Kosuke; Natsumi, Yoshiko; Urade, Masahiro

2008-12-01

The relationship of bony changes in the condylar surfaces in articular disc displacement without reduction in temporomandibular joint (TMJ) was investigated using diagnostic imaging. The study also evaluated whether the bony changes in the condylar surfaces limit disc and condyle motion, and produce pathological joint sounds. Thirty-seven joints in 28 patients diagnosed with degenerative bony changes in the condylar surfaces radiographically and anterior disc displacement without reduction using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) were studied. The bony changes were assessed by radiographic examination and classified into two types: pathological bone changes (PBCs) including erosion, osteophyte formation and deformity, and adaptive bone changes (ABCs) including flattening and concavity. MRI was performed on the TMJ to examine the configuration and position of the discs. Joint sounds in the TMJ were determined using electrovibratograghy with a joint vibration analysis. The articular disc motion to the condyle in the PBC group was smaller than in the ABC group irrespective of the configuration of the disc, even though there were no significant differences between the two types of bony changes in the disc position during jaw closing. The joint vibration analysis of the TMJ showed that joint sounds with a higher frequency were observed in the PBC group than in the ABC group. High energy levels needed to produce the higher frequencies (over 300 Hz) were observed only in the PBC group.

GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH NEWS #37: PUBLICATION OF "OUR CHANGING PLANET: THE FY 2002 U.S. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM"

EPA Science Inventory

The EPA Global Change Research Program is pleased to inform you of the publication of the new Our Changing Planet: The FY 2002 U.S. Global Change Research Program. This annual report to the Congress was prepared under the auspices of the Committee on Environment and Natural Reso...

White House Conference on Global Climate Change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1993-11-01

President Clinton has directed the White House office on Environmental Policy to coordinate an interagency process to develop a plan to fulfill the commitment he made in his Earth Day address on April 21, 1993. This plan will become the cornerstone of the Climate Change Plan that will be completed shortly after the Rio Accord enters into force. The Office on Environmental Policy established the Interagency Climate Change Mitigation Group to draw on the expertise of federal agencies including the National Economic Council; the Council of Economic Advisors; the Office of Science and Technology Policy; the Office of Management andmore » Budget; the National Security Council; the Domestic Policy Council; the Environmental Protection Agency; and the Departments of Energy, Transportation, Agriculture, Interior, Treasury, Commerce, and State. Working groups have been established to examine six key policy areas: energy demand, energy supply, joint implementation, methane and other gases, sinks, and transportation. The purpose of the White House Conference on Global Climate Change was to ``tap the real-world experiences`` of diverse participants and seek ideas and information for meeting the President`s goals. During the opening session, senior administration officials defined the challenge ahead and encouraged open and frank conversation about the best possible ways to meet it.« less

Panta Rhei: Global Perspectives on Hydrology, Society and Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McMillan, H. K.; Van Loon, A.; Mejia, A.; Liu, J.

2016-12-01

In 2013, the International Association of Hydrological Sciences - IAHS - launched the hydrological decade 2013-2022 with the theme `Panta Rhei: Change in Hydrology and Society'. The decade recognises the urgency of hydrological research to understand and predict the interactions of society and water, to support sustainable water resource use under changing climatic and environmental conditions. This presentation provides an overview of the first three years of Panta Rhei, describing the scope, progress and future direction of the initiative. We provide a summary of the new science being undertaken by the 31 Panta Rhei working groups, demonstrating the views of the more than 400 members on the most pressing research questions and how the hydrological community is progressing towards those goals. We draw out interconnections between different strands of research, and reflect on the need to take a global view on hydrology in a world strongly impacted by humans and undergoing environmental change. There are many challenges associated with understanding and predicting change in hydrology and society, and empowering communities to mitigate and adapt to those changes. Such challenges can only be met by the concerted and joint efforts of hydrologists and affected societies around the world.

The northern global change research program

Treesearch

Richard A. Birdsey; John L. Hom; Marla Emery

1996-01-01

The Forest Service goal for global change research is to establish a sound scientific basis for making regional, national, and international resource management and policy decisions in the context of global change issues. The objectives of the Northern Global Change Program (NGCP) are to understand: (1) what processes in forest ecosystems are sensitive to physical and...

Perspectives on global change theory

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Global changes in ecological drivers, such as CO2 concentrations, climate, and nitrogen deposition, are increasingly recognized as key to understanding contemporary ecosystem dynamics, but a coherent theory of global change has not yet been developed. We outline the characteristics of a theory of gl...

Climate change 101 : understanding and responding to global climate change

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-01-01

To inform the climate change dialogue, the Pew Center on Global Climate Change and the Pew Center on the States have developed a series of brief reports entitled Climate Change 101: Understanding and Responding to Global Climate Change. These reports...

Asia's changing role in global climate change.

PubMed

Siddiqi, Toufiq A

2008-10-01

Asia's role in global climate change has evolved significantly from the time when the Kyoto Protocol was being negotiated. Emissions of carbon dioxide, the principal greenhouse gas, from energy use in Asian countries now exceed those from the European Union or North America. Three of the top five emitters-China, India, and Japan, are Asian countries. Any meaningful global effort to address global climate change requires the active cooperation of these and other large Asian countries, if it is to succeed. Issues of equity between countries, within countries, and between generations, need to be tackled. Some quantitative current and historic data to illustrate the difficulties involved are provided, and one approach to making progress is suggested.

Possible implications of global climate change on global lightning distributions and frequencies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Price, Colin; Rind, David

1994-01-01

The Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) is used to study the possible implications of past and future climate change on global lightning frequencies. Two climate change experiments were conducted: one for a 2 x CO2 climate (representing a 4.2 degs C global warming) and one for a 2% decrease in the solar constant (representing a 5.9 degs C global cooling). The results suggest at 30% increase in global lightning activity for the warmer climate and a 24% decrease in global lightning activity for the colder climate. This implies an approximate 5-6% change in global lightning frequencies for every 1 degs C global warming/cooling. Both intracloud and cloud-to-ground frequencies are modeled, with cloud-to-ground lightning frequencies showing larger sensitivity to climate change than intracloud frequencies. The magnitude of the modeled lightning changes depends on season, location, and even time of day.

Neuromuscular adaptations associated with knee joint angle-specific force change.

PubMed

Noorkõiv, Marika; Nosaka, Kazunori; Blazevich, Anthony J

2014-08-01

Neuromuscular adaptations to joint angle-specific force increases after isometric training have not yet been fully elucidated. This study examined angle-specific neuromuscular adaptations in response to isometric knee extension training at short (SL, joint angle 38.1° ± 3.7°) versus long (LL, 87.5° ± 6.0°) muscle lengths. Sixteen men trained three times a week for 6 wk either at SL (n = 8) or LL (n = 8). Voluntary maximal isometric knee extensor (MVC) force, doublet twitch force, EMG amplitudes (EMG/Mmax), and voluntary activation during MVC force (VA%) were measured at eight knee joint angles (30°-100°) at weeks 0, 3, and 6. Muscle volume and cross-sectional area (CSA) were measured from magnetic resonance imaging scans, and fascicle length (Lf) was assessed using ultrasonography before and after training. Clear joint angle specificity of force increase was seen in SL but not in LL. The 13.4% ± 9.7% (P = 0.01) force increase around the training angle in SL was related to changes in vastus lateralis and vastus medialis EMG/Mmax around the training angle (r = 0.84-0.88, P < 0.05), without changes in the doublet twitch force-angle relation or muscle size. In LL, muscle volume and CSA increased and the changes in CSA at specific muscle regions were correlated with changes in MVC force. A 5.4% ± 4.9% (P = 0.001) increase in Lf found in both groups was not associated with angle-specific force changes. There were no angle-specific changes in VA%. The EMG/Mmax, although not VA%, results suggest that neural adaptations underpinned training-related changes at short quadriceps lengths, but hypertrophic changes predominated after training at long lengths. The findings of this study should contribute to the development of more effective and evidence-based rehabilitation and strength training protocols.

Fungal symbionts alter plant responses to global change.

PubMed

Kivlin, Stephanie N; Emery, Sarah M; Rudgers, Jennifer A

2013-07-01

While direct plant responses to global change have been well characterized, indirect plant responses to global change, via altered species interactions, have received less attention. Here, we examined how plants associated with four classes of fungal symbionts (class I leaf endophytes [EF], arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi [AMF], ectomycorrhizal fungi [ECM], and dark septate endophytes [DSE]) responded to four global change factors (enriched CO2, drought, N deposition, and warming). We performed a meta-analysis of 434 studies spanning 174 publications to search for generalizable trends in responses of plant-fungal symbioses to future environments. Specifically, we addressed the following questions: (1) Can fungal symbionts ameliorate responses of plants to global change? (2) Do fungal symbiont groups differ in the degree to which they modify plant response to global change? (3) Do particular global change factors affect plant-fungal symbioses more than others? In all global change scenarios, except elevated CO2, fungal symbionts significantly altered plant responses to global change. In most cases, fungal symbionts increased plant biomass in response to global change. However, increased N deposition reduced the benefits of symbiosis. Of the global change factors we considered, drought and N deposition resulted in the strongest fungal mediation of plant responses. Our analysis highlighted gaps in current knowledge for responses of particular fungal groups and revealed the importance of considering not only the nonadditive effects of multiple global change factors, but also the interactive effects of multiple fungal symbioses. Our results show that considering plant-fungal symbioses is critical to predicting ecosystem response to global change.

Impact of three global change drivers on a Mediterranean shrub.

PubMed

Matesanz, Silvia; Escudero, Adrián; Valladares, Fernando

2009-09-01

Global change is not restricted to climate change, and plant species generally face multiple human-driven disturbances constraining their viability. Most importantly, interactions among these drivers frequently generate nonadditive effects that cannot be predicted based on single-factor studies. Our goal was to assess the joint effects of three global change drivers that are especially relevant in Mediterranean ecosystems, namely, fragmentation, reduced habitat quality, and climate change on Centaurea hyssopifolia, a gypsum specialist plant. We carried out a two-year study (2005-2006) in natural populations of this plant in large (>11 ha) and small (< 1.5 ha) fragments. Within each fragment, we identified areas of contrasting habitat quality as revealed by plant cover and nutrient content, and within each combination of habitat quality and fragment size we performed a rainfall manipulation experiment simulating the most likely future climate scenario for the region. Survival, growth, phenology, and reproductive success of selected plants were monitored. The three drivers profoundly affected responses of Centaurea hyssopifolia in both study years, phenology being mainly affected by changes in habitat quality and reductions in rainfall and reproductive traits being mainly affected by fragmentation. Plants in sites of poor habitat quality and plants in the dry treatment advanced most of their phenophases (flowering and dispersing earlier) and showed reduced growth rate and increased fraction of senescent leaves. Plants growing in small fragments had lower survival, lower number of viable seeds, and a reduced seed set compared to those from large fragments. We found significant synergistic interactions among drivers. For example, the interaction between fragmentation and habitat quality led to lower survival and lower relative growth in plants from small and poor-quality habitat sites. Our results highlight the importance of studies addressing simultaneously all

Global temperature change

PubMed Central

Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Ruedy, Reto; Lo, Ken; Lea, David W.; Medina-Elizade, Martin

2006-01-01

Global surface temperature has increased ≈0.2°C per decade in the past 30 years, similar to the warming rate predicted in the 1980s in initial global climate model simulations with transient greenhouse gas changes. Warming is larger in the Western Equatorial Pacific than in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific over the past century, and we suggest that the increased West–East temperature gradient may have increased the likelihood of strong El Niños, such as those of 1983 and 1998. Comparison of measured sea surface temperatures in the Western Pacific with paleoclimate data suggests that this critical ocean region, and probably the planet as a whole, is approximately as warm now as at the Holocene maximum and within ≈1°C of the maximum temperature of the past million years. We conclude that global warming of more than ≈1°C, relative to 2000, will constitute “dangerous” climate change as judged from likely effects on sea level and extermination of species. PMID:17001018

Review of Global Change Research Program plan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Showstack, Randy

2012-01-01

The draft 10-year strategic plan for the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), which proposes broadening the scope of the program from climate change only to climate change and climaterelated global changes, “is an important step in the right direction,” according to a 5 January review of the plan by a committee of the U.S. National Research Council (NRC) of the National Academies. However, the committee also said that the program's legislative mandate is even broader in allowing USGCRP to address many aspects of global change including climate change, the global hydrological cycle, and widespread land use changes. “The Program's legislative mandate is to address all of global change, whether or not related to climate. The Committee concurs that this broader scope is appropriate, but realizes that such an expansion may be constrained by budget realities and by the practical challenge of maintaining clear boundaries for an expanded program,” the report states. “We encourage sustained efforts to expand the Program over time, along with efforts to better define and prioritize what specific topics are included within the bounds of global change research.”

WATERSHED BOUNDARY CONDITIONS FOR GLOBAL CHANGE IMPACT ANALYSIS

EPA Science Inventory

The US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) studies (among other issues) the impact of global change on water quality. This field study evaluates the impact of global changes (land-use change and climate change) on source water quality. Changes in source water quality change...

Changes in ankle joint motion after Supramalleolar osteotomy: a cadaveric model.

PubMed

Kim, Hak Jun; Yeo, Eui Dong; Rhyu, Im Joo; Lee, Soon-Hyuck; Lee, Yeon Soo; Lee, Young Koo

2017-09-09

Malalignment of the ankle joint has been found after trauma, by neurological disorders, genetic predisposition and other unidentified factors, and results in asymmetrical joint loading. For a medial open wedge supramalleolar osteotomy(SMO), there are some debates as to whether concurrent fibular osteotomy should be performed. We assessed the changes in motion of ankle joint and plantar pressure after supramalleolar osteotomy without fibular osteotomy. Ten lower leg specimens below the knee were prepared from fresh-frozen human cadavers. They were harvested from five males (10 ankles)whose average age was 70 years. We assessed the motion of ankle joint as well as plantar pressure for SS(supra-syndesmotic) SMO and IS(intra-syndesmotic) SMO. After the osteotomy, each specimen was subjected to axial compression from 20 N preload to 350 N representing half-body weight. For the measurement of the motion of ankle joint, the changes in gap and point, angles in ankle joint were measured. The plantar pressure were also recorded using TekScan sensors. The changes in the various gap, point, and angles movements on SS-SMO and IS-SMO showed no statistically significant differences between the two groups. Regarding the shift of plantar center of force (COF) were noted in the anterolateral direction, but not statistically significant. SS-SMO and IS-SMO with intact fibula showed similar biomechanical effect on the ankle joint. We propose that IS-SMO should be considered carefully for the treatment of osteoarthrosis when fibular osteotomy is not performed because lateral cortex fracture was less likely using the intrasyndesmosis plane because of soft tissue support.

Joint spatiotemporal variability of global sea surface temperatures and global Palmer drought severity index values

USGS Publications Warehouse

Apipattanavis, S.; McCabe, G.J.; Rajagopalan, B.; Gangopadhyay, S.

2009-01-01

Dominant modes of individual and joint variability in global sea surface temperatures (SST) and global Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) values for the twentieth century are identified through a multivariate frequency domain singular value decomposition. This analysis indicates that a secular trend and variability related to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are the dominant modes of variance shared among the global datasets. For the SST data the secular trend corresponds to a positive trend in Indian Ocean and South Atlantic SSTs, and a negative trend in North Pacific and North Atlantic SSTs. The ENSO reconstruction shows a strong signal in the tropical Pacific, North Pacific, and Indian Ocean regions. For the PDSI data, the secular trend reconstruction shows high amplitudes over central Africa including the Sahel, whereas the regions with strong ENSO amplitudes in PDSI are the southwestern and northwestern United States, South Africa, northeastern Brazil, central Africa, the Indian subcontinent, and Australia. An additional significant frequency, multidecadal variability, is identified for the Northern Hemisphere. This multidecadal frequency appears to be related to the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). The multidecadal frequency is statistically significant in the Northern Hemisphere SST data, but is statistically nonsignificant in the PDSI data.

Relating climate change policy to poverty policy: assessing the global exposure of the poor to floods and droughts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winsemius, Hessel; Jongman, Brenden; Veldkamp, Ted; Hallegatte, Stéphane; Bangalore, Mook; Ward, Philip

2016-04-01

Prior to the COP21 conference in Paris this year, the World Bank published a report called "Shockwaves - Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty". The report flagged that ending poverty and stabilizing climate change should be jointly tackled and that without a good joint policy, a further 100 million people could become trapped in poverty by 2050. As part of the "Shockwaves" report, we investigated whether low-income households are disproportionately overrepresented in hazard-prone areas compared to households with higher income. Furthermore, the hazardous conditions under which poor households are exposed to now may become worse due to climate change with resulting increases in intensity and frequency of floods and droughts. We also show how the amount of affected people to these natural hazards change in the future if nothing is done. We use recent advances in the global spatial modeling of flood and drought hazard and a large sample of household surveys containing asset and income data to explore the relationships.

Topex/Poseidon satellite - Enabling a joint U.S.-French mission for global ocean study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, Ralph L.

1990-01-01

A joint U.S./French mission, which represents a merging of the prior NASA Topex and CNES Poseidon progams, is described. The Topex/Poseidon satellite will contribute to two of the World Climate Research Program's phases: the World Ocean Circulation Experiment and the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere experiment. The satellite's instruments will measure the ocean currents and their variability on the global basis via satellite altimetry and precision orbit determinations. The paper describes the satellite configuration and characteristics and the mission instruments and system elements. The Topex/Poseidon's design diagrams and block diagrams are included.

Radiologic changes of ankle joint after total knee arthroplasty.

PubMed

Lee, Jung Hee; Jeong, Bi O

2012-12-01

The authors noticed that ankle joint osteoarthritis was not uncommon when lower extremity malalignment, such as a knee varus deformity, was present as a result of severe osteoarthritis of the knee. The purpose of this study was to analyze radiologic changes of the ankle joint after total knee arthroplasty. This study included 142 cases in 110 patients who underwent total knee arthroplasty and were followed for at least 3 years. The varus knee group included 128 cases and the valgus knee group included 14 cases. On anteroposterior standing lower extremity radiographs, varus and valgus angles of the knee were measured preoperatively and at the last follow-up. The angle between the ground surface and the distal tibial plafond as well as the upper talus was also measured. In addition, tibial anterior surface angle, talar tilt, space between the medial malleolar distal tip and the medial articular surface of the talus, and medial tibiotalar joint space of the ankle joint were measured. Out of 142 cases, 50 (35.2%) had arthritis in the ankle before total knee arthroplasty and 31 (21.8%) had newly developed or progressive arthritis after surgery. In particular, the varus knee group demonstrated statistically significant differences in preoperative varus deformity, preoperative talar tilt, and postoperative correction angle between the cases that developed or had progressive arthritis and those that did not show any changes (p < .05). After total knee arthroplasty, arthritis developed or progressed in the ankle of many cases radiographically. In particular, when the preoperative talar tilt increased medial to the ankle or the postoperative correction angle was large, the incidence of arthritis in the ankle joint increased. The authors recommend more cautious follow-up on the symptoms of the ankle joint after total knee arthroplasty.

Stability of mechanical joints in launching vehicles: Local and global stationary values of energy density

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chue, Ching-Hwei

A method was developed for predicting the behavior of mechanical joints in launch vehicles with particular emphasis placed on how the combined effects of loading, geometry, and materials could be optimized in terms of structure instability and/or integrity. What was considered to be essential is the fluctuation of the volume energy density with time in the structure. The peaks and valleys of the volume energy density function will be associated with failure by fracture and/or yielding while the distance between their local and global stationary values govern the structure instability. The Solid Rocket Booster (SRB) of the space shuttle was analyzed under axisymmetric and non-axisymmetric loadings. A semi-analytical finite element program was developed for solving the case of non-axisymmetric loading. Following a dynamic stress analysis, contours of the volume energy density in the structure were obtained as a function of time. The magnitudes and locations of these stationary values were then calculated locally and globally and related to possible failure by fracture. In the case of axisymmetric flight, the local and global instability behavior do not change appreciably. Fluctuations in the energy density and the dynamic stability length parameter become appreciable when the non-axisymmetric loads are considered. The magnitude of the energy in the shell structure is sensitive to alterations in the gas pressure induced by the solid propellant.

Global change and terrestrial plant community dynamics

DOE PAGES

Franklin, Janet; Serra-Diaz, Josep M.; Syphard, Alexandra D.; ...

2016-02-29

Anthropogenic drivers of global change include rising atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses and resulting changes in the climate, as well as nitrogen deposition, biotic invasions, altered disturbance regimes, and land-use change. Predicting the effects of global change on terrestrial plant communities is crucial because of the ecosystem services vegetation provides, from climate regulation to forest products. In this article, we present a framework for detecting vegetation changes and attributing them to global change drivers that incorporates multiple lines of evidence from spatially extensive monitoring networks, distributed experiments, remotely sensed data, and historical records. Based on amore » literature review, we summarize observed changes and then describe modeling tools that can forecast the impacts of multiple drivers on plant communities in an era of rapid change. Observed responses to changes in temperature, water, nutrients, land use, and disturbance show strong sensitivity of ecosystem productivity and plant population dynamics to water balance and long-lasting effects of disturbance on plant community dynamics. Persistent effects of land-use change and human-altered fire regimes on vegetation can overshadow or interact with climate change impacts. Models forecasting plant community responses to global change incorporate shifting ecological niches, population dynamics, species interactions, spatially explicit disturbance, ecosystem processes, and plant functional responses. Lastly, monitoring, experiments, and models evaluating multiple change drivers are needed to detect and predict vegetation changes in response to 21st century global change.« less

Global change and terrestrial plant community dynamics

PubMed Central

Franklin, Janet; Serra-Diaz, Josep M.; Syphard, Alexandra D.; Regan, Helen M.

2016-01-01

Anthropogenic drivers of global change include rising atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses and resulting changes in the climate, as well as nitrogen deposition, biotic invasions, altered disturbance regimes, and land-use change. Predicting the effects of global change on terrestrial plant communities is crucial because of the ecosystem services vegetation provides, from climate regulation to forest products. In this paper, we present a framework for detecting vegetation changes and attributing them to global change drivers that incorporates multiple lines of evidence from spatially extensive monitoring networks, distributed experiments, remotely sensed data, and historical records. Based on a literature review, we summarize observed changes and then describe modeling tools that can forecast the impacts of multiple drivers on plant communities in an era of rapid change. Observed responses to changes in temperature, water, nutrients, land use, and disturbance show strong sensitivity of ecosystem productivity and plant population dynamics to water balance and long-lasting effects of disturbance on plant community dynamics. Persistent effects of land-use change and human-altered fire regimes on vegetation can overshadow or interact with climate change impacts. Models forecasting plant community responses to global change incorporate shifting ecological niches, population dynamics, species interactions, spatially explicit disturbance, ecosystem processes, and plant functional responses. Monitoring, experiments, and models evaluating multiple change drivers are needed to detect and predict vegetation changes in response to 21st century global change. PMID:26929338

Global water cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, Franklin; Goodman, Steven J.; Christy, John R.; Fitzjarrald, Daniel E.; Chou, Shi-Hung; Crosson, William; Wang, Shouping; Ramirez, Jorge

1993-01-01

This research is the MSFC component of a joint MSFC/Pennsylvania State University Eos Interdisciplinary Investigation on the global water cycle extension across the earth sciences. The primary long-term objective of this investigation is to determine the scope and interactions of the global water cycle with all components of the Earth system and to understand how it stimulates and regulates change on both global and regional scales. Significant accomplishments in the past year are presented and include the following: (1) water vapor variability; (2) multi-phase water analysis; (3) global modeling; and (4) optimal precipitation and stream flow analysis and hydrologic processes.

The European functional tree of bird life in the face of global change

PubMed Central

Thuiller, Wilfried; Pironon, Samuel; Psomas, Achilleas; Barbet-Massin, Morgane; Jiguet, Frédéric; Lavergne, Sébastien; Pearman, Peter B.; Renaud, Julien; Zupan, Laure; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.

2014-01-01

Despite the recognized joint impact of climate and land cover change on facets of biodiversity and their associated functions, risk assessments have primarily evaluated impacts on species ranges and richness. Here we quantify the sensitivity of the functional structure of European avian assemblages to changes in both regional climate and land cover. We combine species range forecasts with functional trait information. We show that species sensitivity to environmental change is randomly distributed across the functional tree of the European avifauna and that functionally unique species are not disproportionately threatened by 2080. However, projected species range changes will modify the mean species richness and functional diversity of bird diets and feeding behaviours. This will unequally affect the spatial structure of functional diversity, leading to homogenization across Europe. Therefore, global changes may alter the functional structure of species assemblages in the future in ways that need to be accounted for in conservation planning. PMID:24452245

Bibliography of global change, 1992

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1993-01-01

This bibliography lists 585 reports, articles, and other documents introduced in the NASA Scientific and Technical Information Database in 1992. The areas covered include global change, decision making, earth observation (from space), forecasting, global warming, policies, and trends.

National Security and Global Climate Change

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-01-01

The uncertainty, confusion, and speculation about the causes, effects, and implications of global climate change (GCC) often paralyze serious...against scientific indications of global climate change , but to consider how it would pose challenges to national security, explore options for facing...generals and admirals, released a report concluding that projected climate change poses a serious threat to America’s national security. This article

Future battlegrounds for conservation under global change

PubMed Central

Lee, Tien Ming; Jetz, Walter

2008-01-01

Global biodiversity is under significant threat from the combined effects of human-induced climate and land-use change. Covering 12% of the Earth's terrestrial surface, protected areas are crucial for conserving biodiversity and supporting ecological processes beneficial to human well-being, but their selection and design are usually uninformed about future global change. Here, we quantify the exposure of the global reserve network to projected climate and land-use change according to the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and set these threats in relation to the conservation value and capacity of biogeographic and geopolitical regions. We find that geographical patterns of past human impact on the land cover only poorly predict those of forecasted change, thus revealing the inadequacy of existing global conservation prioritization templates. Projected conservation risk, measured as regional levels of land-cover change in relation to area protected, is the greatest at high latitudes (due to climate change) and tropics/subtropics (due to land-use change). Only some high-latitude nations prone to high conservation risk are also of high conservation value, but their high relative wealth may facilitate additional conservation efforts. In contrast, most low-latitude nations tend to be of high conservation value, but they often have limited capacity for conservation which may exacerbate the global biodiversity extinction crisis. While our approach will clearly benefit from improved land-cover projections and a thorough understanding of how species range will shift under climate change, our results provide a first global quantitative demonstration of the urgent need to consider future environmental change in reserve-based conservation planning. They further highlight the pressing need for new reserves in target regions and support a much extended ‘north–south’ transfer of conservation resources that maximizes biodiversity conservation while mitigating global climate

Joint variability of global runoff and global sea surface temperatures

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, G.J.; Wolock, D.M.

2008-01-01

Global land surface runoff and sea surface temperatures (SST) are analyzed to identify the primary modes of variability of these hydroclimatic data for the period 1905-2002. A monthly water-balance model first is used with global monthly temperature and precipitation data to compute time series of annual gridded runoff for the analysis period. The annual runoff time series data are combined with gridded annual sea surface temperature data, and the combined dataset is subjected to a principal components analysis (PCA) to identify the primary modes of variability. The first three components from the PCA explain 29% of the total variability in the combined runoff/SST dataset. The first component explains 15% of the total variance and primarily represents long-term trends in the data. The long-term trends in SSTs are evident as warming in all of the oceans. The associated long-term trends in runoff suggest increasing flows for parts of North America, South America, Eurasia, and Australia; decreasing runoff is most notable in western Africa. The second principal component explains 9% of the total variance and reflects variability of the El Ni??o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its associated influence on global annual runoff patterns. The third component explains 5% of the total variance and indicates a response of global annual runoff to variability in North Aflantic SSTs. The association between runoff and North Atlantic SSTs may explain an apparent steplike change in runoff that occurred around 1970 for a number of continental regions.

Paleobotany and Global Change: Important Lessons for Species to Biomes from Vegetation Responses to Past Global Change.

PubMed

McElwain, Jennifer C

2018-04-29

Human carbon use during the next century will lead to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations (pCO 2 ) that have been unprecedented for the past 50-100+ million years according to fossil plant-based CO 2 estimates. The paleobotanical record of plants offers key insights into vegetation responses to past global change, including suitable analogs for Earth's climatic future. Past global warming events have resulted in transient poleward migration at rates that are equivalent to the lowest climate velocities required for current taxa to keep pace with climate change. Paleobiome reconstructions suggest that the current tundra biome is the biome most threatened by global warming. The common occurrence of paleoforests at high polar latitudes when pCO 2 was above 500 ppm suggests that the advance of woody shrub and tree taxa into tundra environments may be inevitable. Fossil pollen studies demonstrate the resilience of wet tropical forests to global change up to 700 ppm CO 2 , contrary to modeled predictions of the future. The paleobotanical record also demonstrates a high capacity for functional trait evolution as an additional strategy to migration and maintenance of a species' climate envelope in response to global change.

GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH NEWS #18: SYMPOSIUM SESSION ON "GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC CHANGE"

EPA Science Inventory

A session on "Understanding and Managing Effects of Global Atmospheric Change" will be held at the Fifth Symposium of the U.S. EPA National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory. The Symposium topic is "Indicators in Health and Ecological Risk Assessment." The s...

Cooled radiofrequency denervation for treatment of sacroiliac joint pain: two-year results from 20 cases

PubMed Central

Ho, Kok-Yuen; Hadi, Mohamed Abdul; Pasutharnchat, Koravee; Tan, Kian-Hian

2013-01-01

Background Sacroiliac joint pain is a common cause of chronic low back pain. Different techniques for radiofrequency denervation of the sacroiliac joint have been used to treat this condition. However, results have been inconsistent because the variable sensory supply to the sacroiliac joint is difficult to disrupt completely using conventional radiofrequency. Cooled radiofrequency is a novel technique that uses internally cooled radiofrequency probes to enlarge lesion size, thereby increasing the chance of completely denervating the sacroiliac joint. The objective of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of cooled radiofrequency denervation using the SInergy™ cooled radiofrequency system for sacroiliac joint pain. Methods The charts of 20 patients with chronic sacroiliac joint pain who had undergone denervation using the SInergy™ cooled radiofrequency system were reviewed at two years following the procedure. Outcome measures included the Numeric Rating Scale for pain intensity, Patient Global Impression of Change, and Global Perceived Effect for patient satisfaction. Results Fifteen of 20 patients showed a significant reduction in pain (a decrease of at least three points on the Numeric Rating Scale). Mean Numeric Rating Scale for pain decreased from 7.4 ± 1.4 to 3.1 ± 2.5, mean Patient Global Impression of Change was “improved” (1.4 ± 1.5), and Global Perceived Effect was reported to be positive in 16 patients at two years following the procedure. Conclusion Cooled radiofrequency denervation showed long-term efficacy for up to two years in the treatment of sacroiliac joint pain. PMID:23869175

Solar variability: Implications for global change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lean, Judith; Rind, David

1994-01-01

Solar variability is examined in search of implications for global change. The topics covered include the following: solar variation modification of global surface temperature; the significance of solar variability with respect to future climate change; and methods of reducing the uncertainty of the potential amplitude of solar variability on longer time scales.

Microenvironmental change as a mechanism to study global change.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lortie, C. J.

2016-12-01

Global change is a set of significant processes that influence all aspects of ecosystem functioning and often-natural services within Santa Barbara County. The sensitivity of coastal and urban systems is certainly very high. However, profound changes are also predicted for arid and semi-arid systems globally, and California is no exception. These dryland systems are less buffered by oceanic processes and typically express high inter-annual variation in precipitation and temperatures in addition to perturbations associated with long-term droughts. However, climate estimates and downscaled values can present challenges in providing evidence at the scale relevant to individual species or individuals, and the importance of biotic interactions must be coupled to these estimates in space and time. Coupled indicators of key micro-environmental measures to both positive and negative interactions between foundation species and other organisms provide a metric of buffering capacity and resilience to global change at fine spatial scales. Consequently, the primary objective of this research project is to provide both the a well-articulated, ecologically relevant micro-environmental big data measure of global change within Santa Barbara County and a coupled estimate of concurrent changes in interactions in key species within the region. Shrubs directly and indirectly buffered local changes in the microenvironment thereby functioning as refuges for other species within arid and semi-arid regions subject to dramatic global change drivers. The following major patterns were identified: (i) shrub micro-environments reduce the level of stress and amplitude of variation associated with temperature and moisture, (ii) many plant and animal species including threatened lizards are relatively more common with shrubs within the region, and (iii) the variation in the interaction patterns between species relates to the extent of amelioration provided by shrub-biodiversity complexes within

Improved data for integrated modeling of global environmental change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lotze-Campen, Hermann

2011-12-01

Ethiopia. Together with data from household studies, the new dataset could provide the basis for improved assessments of targeted infrastructure investment, which could help to reduce environmental degradation, promote economic development and alleviate poverty. References Alcamo J et al 1996 Baseline scenarios of global environmental change Glob. Environ. Change—Human Policy Dimens. 6 261-303 CIESIN, IFPRI and WRI 2000 Gridded Population of the World (GPW), Version 2 (available at http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/plue/gpw, accessed March 2004) Erb K-H et al 2007 A comprehensive global 5 min resolution land-use data set for the year 2000 consistent with national census data J. Land Use Sci. 2 191-224 Heistermann M, Müller C and Ronneberger K 2006 Land in sight? Achievements, deficits and potentials of global land-use modeling Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 114 141-58 Lambin E F and Meyfroidt P 2011 Global land use change, economic globalization, and the looming land scarcity Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 108 3465-72 Leemans R et al 1996 The land cover and carbon cycle consequences of large-scale utilizations of biomass as an energy source Glob. Environ. Change 6 335-57 Lotze-Campen H, Reusswig F and Stoll-Kleemann S 2008 Socio-ecological monitoring of biodiversity change: building upon the world network of biosphere reserves GAIA—Ecological Perspectives for Science and Society 17 (Suppl. 1) 107-15 Nelson A 2008 Estimated travel time to the nearest city of 50,000 or more people in year 2000 (Ispra: Global Environment Monitoring Unit, Joint Research Centre of the European Commission) (available at http://bioval.jrc.ec.europa.eu/products/gam/download.htm, accessed August 2011) Nordhaus W D 2006 Geography and macroeconomics: new data and new findings Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 103 3510-7 Popp A et al 2011 The economic potential of bioenergy for climate change mitigation with special attention given to implications for the land system Environ. Res. Lett. 6 034017 Schneider U A et al

Mercury from wildfires: Global emission inventories and sensitivity to 2000-2050 global change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Aditya; Wu, Shiliang; Huang, Yaoxian; Liao, Hong; Kaplan, Jed O.

2018-01-01

We estimate the global Hg wildfire emissions for the 2000s and the potential impacts from the 2000-2050 changes in climate, land use and land cover and Hg anthropogenic emissions by combining statistical analysis with global data on vegetation type and coverage as well as fire activities. Global Hg wildfire emissions are estimated to be 612 Mg year-1. Africa is the dominant source region (43.8% of global emissions), followed by Eurasia (31%) and South America (16.6%). We find significant perturbations to wildfire emissions of Hg in the context of global change, driven by the projected changes in climate, land use and land cover and Hg anthropogenic emissions. 2000-2050 climate change could increase Hg emissions by 14% globally and regionally by 18% for South America, 14% for Africa and 13% for Eurasia. Projected changes in land use by 2050 could decrease the global Hg emissions from wildfires by 13% mainly driven by a decline in African emissions due to significant agricultural land expansion. Future land cover changes could lead to significant increases in Hg emissions over some regions (+32% North America, +14% Africa, +13% Eurasia). Potential enrichment of terrestrial ecosystems in 2050 in response to changes in Hg anthropogenic emissions could increase Hg wildfire emissions globally (+28%) and regionally (+19% North America, +20% South America, +24% Africa, +41% Eurasia). Our results indicate that the future evolution of climate, land use and land cover and Hg anthropogenic emissions are all important factors affecting Hg wildfire emissions in the coming decades.

Federal global change data plan reviewed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simarski, Lynn Teo

1992-02-01

Scientists and data managers are grappling with an unprecedented challenge: how to handle the explosion of data being produced by global change research. The federal government is developing a plan to manage data among the various federal agencies that participate in the U.S. Global Change Research Program. From January 22 to 24, some 80 scientists, data managers, and officials from federal agencies, universities, laboratories, and other institutions met in Washington, D.C. to critique the draft plan. New observational tools are expected to increase the flow of global change data to ever more massive proportions, while all the data now available is not catalogued properly. Even now, if a researcher does manage to find appropriate data, it may not be documented sufficiently to use. “These practical difficulties are especially acute for global change researchers, who need to search for data and information very broadly across scientific disciplines and sometimes decades after the data were archived,” explains the draft plan by the Committee on Earth and Environmental Sciences of the Office of Science and Technology Policy.

Antarctica and global change research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weller, Gunter; Lange, Manfred

1992-03-01

The Antarctic, including the continent and Southern Ocean with the subantarctic islands, is a critical area in the global change studies under the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program (IGBP) and the World Climate Research Program (WCRP). Major scientific problems include the impacts of climate warming, the ozone hole, and sea level changes. Large-scale interactions between the atmosphere, ice, ocean, and biota in the Antarctic affect the entire global system through feedbacks, biogeochemical cycles, deep-ocean circulation, atmospheric transport of heat, moisture, and pollutants, and changes in ice mass balances. Antarctica is also a rich repository of paleoenvironmental information in its ice sheet and its ocean and land sediments.

Surface water change as a significant contributor to global evapotranspiration change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhan, S.; Song, C.

2017-12-01

Water comprises a critical component of global/regional hydrological and biogeochemical cycles and is essential to all organisms including humans. In the past several decades, climate change has intensified the hydrological cycle, with significant implications for ecosystem services and feedback to regional and global climate. Evapotranspiration (ET) as a linking mechanism between land surface and atmosphere is central to the water cycle and an excellent indicator of the intensity of water cycle. Knowledge of the temporal changes of ET is crucial for accurately estimating global or regional water budgets and better understanding climate and hydrological interactions. While studies have examined changes in global ET, they were conducted using a constant land and surface water (SW) area. However, as many studies have found that global SW is very dynamic and their surface areas have generally been increasing since the 1980s. The conversion from land to water and vice versa significantly changes the local ET since water bodies evaporate at a rate that can be much higher than that of the land. Here, we quantify the global changes in ET caused by such land-water conversion using remotely-sensed SW area and various ET and potential ET products. New SW and lost SW between circa-1985 and circa-2015 were derived from remote sensing and were used to modify the local ET estimates. We found an increase in ET in all continents as consistent with the net increase in SW area. The increasing SW area lead to a global increase in ET by 30.38 ± 5.28 km3/yr. This is a significant contribution when compared to the 92.95 km3/yr/yr increase in ET between 1982-1997 and 103.43 km3/yr/yr decrease between 1998-2008 by Jung et al., (2010) assuming a constant SW. The results enhance our understanding of the water fluxes between the land and atmosphere and supplement land water budget estimates. We conclude that changes in SW lead to a significant change in global ET that cannot be neglected in

Scene-aware joint global and local homographic video coding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, Xiulian; Xu, Jizheng; Sullivan, Gary J.

2016-09-01

Perspective motion is commonly represented in video content that is captured and compressed for various applications including cloud gaming, vehicle and aerial monitoring, etc. Existing approaches based on an eight-parameter homography motion model cannot deal with this efficiently, either due to low prediction accuracy or excessive bit rate overhead. In this paper, we consider the camera motion model and scene structure in such video content and propose a joint global and local homography motion coding approach for video with perspective motion. The camera motion is estimated by a computer vision approach, and camera intrinsic and extrinsic parameters are globally coded at the frame level. The scene is modeled as piece-wise planes, and three plane parameters are coded at the block level. Fast gradient-based approaches are employed to search for the plane parameters for each block region. In this way, improved prediction accuracy and low bit costs are achieved. Experimental results based on the HEVC test model show that up to 9.1% bit rate savings can be achieved (with equal PSNR quality) on test video content with perspective motion. Test sequences for the example applications showed a bit rate savings ranging from 3.7 to 9.1%.

How can we Optimize Global Satellite Observations of Glacier Velocity and Elevation Changes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willis, M. J.; Pritchard, M. E.; Zheng, W.

2015-12-01

We have started a global compilation of glacier surface elevation change rates measured by altimeters and differencing of Digital Elevation Models and glacier velocities measured by Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and optical feature tracking as well as from Interferometric SAR (InSAR). Our goal is to compile statistics on recent ice flow velocities and surface elevation change rates near the fronts of all available glaciers using literature and our own data sets of the Russian Arctic, Patagonia, Alaska, Greenland and Antarctica, the Himalayas, and other locations. We quantify the percentage of the glaciers on the planet that can be regarded as fast flowing glaciers, with surface velocities of more than 50 meters per year, while also recording glaciers that have elevation change rates of more than 2 meters per year. We examine whether glaciers have significant interannual variations in velocities, or have accelerated or stagnated where time series of ice motions are available. We use glacier boundaries and identifiers from the Randolph Glacier Inventory. Our survey highlights glaciers that are likely to react quickly to changes in their mass accumulation rates. The study also identifies geographical areas where our knowledge of glacier dynamics remains poor. Our survey helps guide how frequently observations must be made in order to provide quality satellite-derived velocity and ice elevation observations at a variety of glacier thermal regimes, speeds and widths. Our objectives are to determine to what extent the joint NASA and Indian Space Research Organization Synthetic Aperture Radar mission (NISAR) will be able to provide global precision coverage of ice speed changes and to determine how to optimize observations from the global constellation of satellite missions to record important changes to glacier elevations and velocities worldwide.

Change in joint space width: hyaline articular cartilage loss or alteration in meniscus?

PubMed

Hunter, D J; Zhang, Y Q; Tu, X; Lavalley, M; Niu, J B; Amin, S; Guermazi, A; Genant, H; Gale, D; Felson, D T

2006-08-01

To explore the relative contribution of hyaline cartilage morphologic features and the meniscus to the radiographic joint space. The Boston Osteoarthritis of the Knee Study is a natural history study of symptomatic knee osteoarthritis (OA). Baseline and 30-month followup assessments included knee magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and fluoroscopically positioned weight-bearing knee radiographs. Cartilage and meniscal degeneration were scored on MRI in the medial and lateral tibiofemoral joints using a semiquantitative grading system. Meniscal position was measured to the nearest millimeter. The dependent variable was joint space narrowing (JSN) on the plain radiograph (possible range 0-3). The predictor variables were MRI cartilage score, meniscal degeneration, and meniscal position measures. We first conducted a cross-sectional analysis using multivariate regression to determine the relative contribution of meniscal factors and cartilage morphologic features to JSN, adjusting for body mass index (BMI), age, and sex. The same approach was used for change in JSN and change in predictor variables. We evaluated 264 study participants with knee OA (mean age 66.7 years, 59% men, mean BMI 31.4 kg/m(2)). The results from the models demonstrated that meniscal position and meniscal degeneration each contributed to prediction of JSN, in addition to the contribution by cartilage morphologic features. For change in medial joint space, both change in meniscal position and change in articular cartilage score contributed substantially to narrowing of the joint space. The meniscus (both its position and degeneration) accounts for a substantial proportion of the variance explained in JSN, and the change in meniscal position accounts for a substantial proportion of change in JSN.

Stormy Weather: 101 Solutions to Global Climate Change.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dauncey, Guy

This document presents 101 solutions to global climate change. These solutions are actions that are well suited to every level of society. This book creates awareness about global climate change. The history of Earth and the greenhouse effect are discussed, and explanations and solutions to global climate change are provided including traveling…

Global change in wilderness areas: disentangling natural and anthropogenic changes

Treesearch

Lisa J. Graumlich

2000-01-01

Human impacts on the Earth’s ecosystems are globally pervasive. Wilderness areas, although largely protected from direct human impact at local scales, nevertheless are subject to global changes in atmospheric composition, climate and biodiversity. Research in wilderness areas plays a critical role in disentangling natural and anthropogenic changes in ecosystems by...

GeoChange Global Change Data

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

1997-01-01

GeoChange is an online data system providing access to research results and data generated by the U.S. Geological Survey's Global Change Research Program. Researchers in this program study climate history and the causes of climatic variations, as well as providing baseline data sets on contemporary atmospheric chemistry, high-resolution meteorology, and dust deposition. Research results are packaged as data sets, groups of digital files containing scientific observations, documentation, and interpretation. The data sets are arranged in a consistent manner using standard file formats so that users of a variety of computer systems can access and use them.

Global Change adaptation in water resources management: the Water Change project.

PubMed

Pouget, Laurent; Escaler, Isabel; Guiu, Roger; Mc Ennis, Suzy; Versini, Pierre-Antoine

2012-12-01

In recent years, water resources management has been facing new challenges due to increasing changes and their associated uncertainties, such as changes in climate, water demand or land use, which can be grouped under the term Global Change. The Water Change project (LIFE+ funding) developed a methodology and a tool to assess the Global Change impacts on water resources, thus helping river basin agencies and water companies in their long term planning and in the definition of adaptation measures. The main result of the project was the creation of a step by step methodology to assess Global Change impacts and define strategies of adaptation. This methodology was tested in the Llobregat river basin (Spain) with the objective of being applicable to any water system. It includes several steps such as setting-up the problem with a DPSIR framework, developing Global Change scenarios, running river basin models and performing a cost-benefit analysis to define optimal strategies of adaptation. This methodology was supported by the creation of a flexible modelling system, which can link a wide range of models, such as hydrological, water quality, and water management models. The tool allows users to integrate their own models to the system, which can then exchange information among them automatically. This enables to simulate the interactions among multiple components of the water cycle, and run quickly a large number of Global Change scenarios. The outcomes of this project make possible to define and test different sets of adaptation measures for the basin that can be further evaluated through cost-benefit analysis. The integration of the results contributes to an efficient decision-making on how to adapt to Global Change impacts. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Space sensors for global change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Canavan, G.H.

1994-02-15

Satellite measurements should contribute to a fuller understanding of the physical processes behind the radiation budget, exchange processes, and global change. Climate engineering requires global observation for early indications of predicted effects, which puts a premium on affordable, distributed constellations of satellites with effective, affordable sensors. Defense has a requirement for continuous global surveillance for warning of aggression, which could evolve from advanced sensors and satellites in development. Many climate engineering needs match those of defense technologies.

Agricultural Water Use under Global Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, T.; Ringler, C.; Rosegrant, M. W.

2008-12-01

Irrigation is by far the single largest user of water in the world and is projected to remain so in the foreseeable future. Globally, irrigated agricultural land comprises less than twenty percent of total cropland but produces about forty percent of the world's food. Increasing world population will require more food and this will lead to more irrigation in many areas. As demands increase and water becomes an increasingly scarce resource, agriculture's competition for water with other economic sectors will be intensified. This water picture is expected to become even more complex as climate change will impose substantial impacts on water availability and demand, in particular for agriculture. To better understand future water demand and supply under global change, including changes in demographic, economic and technological dimensions, the water simulation module of IMPACT, a global water and food projection model developed at the International Food Policy Research Institute, is used to analyze future water demand and supply in agricultural and several non-agricultural sectors using downscaled GCM scenarios, based on water availability simulation done with a recently developed semi-distributed global hydrological model. Risk analysis is conducted to identify countries and regions where future water supply reliability for irrigation is low, and food security may be threatened in the presence of climate change. Gridded shadow values of irrigation water are derived for global cropland based on an optimization framework, and they are used to illustrate potential irrigation development by incorporating gridded water availability and existing global map of irrigation areas.

Global and Mediterranean climate change: a short summary.

PubMed

Ciardini, Virginia; Contessa, Gian Marco; Falsaperla, Rosaria; Gómez-Amo, José Luis; Meloni, Daniela; Monteleone, Francesco; Pace, Giandomenico; Piacentino, Salvatore; Sferlazzo, Damiano; di Sarra, Alcide

2016-01-01

Observed changes at the global scale. An increase of the annual mean global temperature and changes of other climate parameters have been observed in the last century. The global temperature and the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases are changing at a very fast pace compared to those found in palaeoclimate records. Changes in the Mediterranean. Variations of some climate change indicators can be much larger at the local than at the global scale, and the Mediterranean has been indicated among the regions most sensitive to climate change, also due to the increasing anthropogenic pressure. Model projections for the Mediterranean foresee further warming, droughts, and long-lasting modifications. Regional climate changes impact health and ecosystems, creating new risks, determined not only by weather events, but also by changing exposures and vulnerabilities. These issues, and in particular those regarding occupational safety, have not been sufficiently addressed to date.

Antarctic Pliocene Biotic and Environmental Change in a Global Context Changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quilty, P. G.; Whitehead, J.

2005-12-01

The Pliocene was globally an interval of dramatic climate change and often compared with the environment evolving through human-induced global change. Antarctic history needs to be integrated into global patterns. The Prydz Bay-Prince Charles Mountains region of East Antarctica is a major source of data on Late Paleozoic-Recent changes in Antarctic biota and environment. This paper reviews what is known of 13 marine transgressions in the Late Neogene of the region and attempts to compare the Antarctic pattern with global patterns, such as those identified through global sequence stratigraphic analysis. Although temporal resolution in Antarctic sections is not always as good as for sections elsewhere, enough data exist to indicate that many events can be construed as part of global changes. It is expected that further correlation will be effected. During much of the Pliocene, there was less continental ice, reduced sea-ice cover, probably higher sea-level, penetration of marine conditions deep into the hinterland, and independent evidence to indicate that this was due to warmth. The Antarctic Polar Frontal Zone probably was much farther south than currently. There have been major changes in the marine fauna, and distribution of surviving species since the mid-Pliocene. Antarctic fish faunas underwent major changes during this interval with evolution of a major new Subfamily and diversification in at least two subfamilies. No palynological evidence of terrestrial vegetation has been recovered from the Prydz Bay - Prince Charles Mountain region. Analysis of origin and extinction data for two global planktonic foraminiferal biostratigraphic zonations shows that the interval Late Miocene-Pliocene was an interval of enhanced extinction and evolution, consistent with an interval of more rapid and high amplitude fluctuating environments.

Global Change and Our Common Future: Papers from a Forum. Papers from the Committee on Global Change, National Research Council, 1989.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

DeFries, Ruth S., Ed.; Malone, Thomas F., Ed.

This volume of papers includes 21 of the 38 presentations given at the Forum on Global Change and Our Common Future. The objectives of the forum were threefold: (1) to present to the public a balanced and authoritative view of the wide range of global change issues, including the science of the earth system, the impacts of global change on…

Global climate change and international security.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Karas, Thomas H.

2003-11-01

This report originates in a workshop held at Sandia National Laboratories, bringing together a variety of external experts with Sandia personnel to discuss 'The Implications of Global Climate Change for International Security.' Whatever the future of the current global warming trend, paleoclimatic history shows that climate change happens, sometimes abruptly. These changes can severely impact human water supplies, agriculture, migration patterns, infrastructure, financial flows, disease prevalence, and economic activity. Those impacts, in turn, can lead to national or international security problems stemming from aggravation of internal conflicts, increased poverty and inequality, exacerbation of existing international conflicts, diversion of national andmore » international resources from international security programs (military or non-military), contribution to global economic decline or collapse, or international realignments based on climate change mitigation policies. After reviewing these potential problems, the report concludes with a brief listing of some research, technology, and policy measures that might mitigate them.« less

Perspectives on global change theory

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Human-caused global changes in ecological drivers, such as carbon dioxide concentrations, climate, and nitrogen deposition, as well as direct human impacts (land use change, species movements and extinctions, etc.) are increasingly recognized as key to understanding contemporary ecosystem dynamics, ...

A global economic assessment of city policies to reduce climate change impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Estrada, Francisco; Botzen, W. J. Wouter; Tol, Richard S. J.

2017-06-01

Climate change impacts can be especially large in cities. Several large cities are taking climate change into account in long-term strategies, for which it is important to have information on the costs and benefits of adaptation. Studies on climate change impacts in cities mostly focus on a limited set of countries and risks, for example sea-level rise, health and water resources. Most of these studies are qualitative, except for the costs of sea-level rise in cities. These impact estimates do not take into account that large cities will experience additional warming due to the urban heat island effect, that is, the change of local climate patterns caused by urbanization. Here we provide a quantitative assessment of the economic costs of the joint impacts of local and global climate change for all main cities around the world. Cost-benefit analyses are presented of urban heat island mitigation options, including green and cool roofs and cool pavements. It is shown that local actions can be a climate risk-reduction instrument. Furthermore, limiting the urban heat island through city adaptation plans can significantly amplify the benefits of international mitigation efforts.

Change in collateral ligament length and tibiofemoral movement following joint line variation in TKA.

PubMed

Lin, Kun-Jhih; Wei, Hung-Wen; Huang, Chang-Hung; Liu, Yu-Liang; Chen, Wen-Chuan; McClean, Colin Joseph; Cheng, Cheng-Kung

2016-08-01

The primary intent of total knee arthroplasty is the restoration of normal knee kinematics, with ligamentous constraint being a key influential factor. Displacement of the joint line may lead to alterations in ligament attachment sites relative to knee flexion axis and variance of ligamentous constraints on tibiofemoral movement. This study aimed to investigate collaterals strains and tibiofemoral kinematics with different joint line levels. A previously validated knee model was employed to analyse the change in length of the collateral ligaments and tibiofemoral motion during knee flexion. The models shifted the joint line by 3 and 5 mm both proximally and distally from the anatomical level. The data were captured from full extension to flexion 135°. The elevated joint line revealed a relative increase in distance between ligament attachments for both collateral ligaments in comparison with the anatomical model. Also, tibiofemoral movement decreased with an elevation in the joint line. Conversely, lowering the joint line led to a significant decrease in distance between ligament attachments, but greater tibiofemoral motion. Elevation of the joint line would strengthen the capacity of collateral ligaments for knee motion constraint, whereas a distally shifted joint line might have the advantage of improving tibiofemoral movement by slackening the collaterals. It implies that surgeons can appropriately change the joint line position in accordance with patient's requirement or collateral tensions. A lowered joint line level may improve knee kinematics, whereas joint line elevation could be useful to maintain knee stability. V.

Global Change. Teaching Activities on Global Change for Grades 4-6.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Geological Survey (Dept. of Interior), Reston, VA.

This packet contains a series of teaching guides on global change. The series includes lessons on dendrochronology; land, air, and water; and island living. Included is information such as : laws of straws; where land, air, and water meet; and Earth as home. Each section provides an introductory description of the activity, the purpose of the…

Projected change in global fisheries revenues under climate change

PubMed Central

Lam, Vicky W. Y.; Cheung, William W. L.; Reygondeau, Gabriel; Sumaila, U. Rashid

2016-01-01

Previous studies highlight the winners and losers in fisheries under climate change based on shifts in biomass, species composition and potential catches. Understanding how climate change is likely to alter the fisheries revenues of maritime countries is a crucial next step towards the development of effective socio-economic policy and food sustainability strategies to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Particularly, fish prices and cross-oceans connections through distant water fishing operations may largely modify the projected climate change impacts on fisheries revenues. However, these factors have not formally been considered in global studies. Here, using climate-living marine resources simulation models, we show that global fisheries revenues could drop by 35% more than the projected decrease in catches by the 2050 s under high CO2 emission scenarios. Regionally, the projected increases in fish catch in high latitudes may not translate into increases in revenues because of the increasing dominance of low value fish, and the decrease in catches by these countries’ vessels operating in more severely impacted distant waters. Also, we find that developing countries with high fisheries dependency are negatively impacted. Our results suggest the need to conduct full-fledged economic analyses of the potential economic effects of climate change on global marine fisheries. PMID:27600330

Morphological changes in the cervical intervertebral foramen dimensions with unilateral facet joint dislocation.

PubMed

Ebraheim, Nabil A; Liu, Jiayong; Ramineni, Satheesh K; Liu, Xiaochen; Xie, Joe; Hartman, Ryan G; Goel, Vijay K

2009-11-01

Many investigators have conducted studies to determine the biomechanics, causes, complications and treatment of unilateral facet joint dislocation in the cervical spine. However, there is no quantitative data available on morphological changes in the intervertebral foramen of the cervical spine following unilateral facet joint dislocation. These data are important to understand the cause of neurological compromise following unilateral facet joint dislocation. Eight embalmed human cadaver cervical spine specimens ranging from level C1-T1 were used. The nerve roots of these specimens at C5-C6 level were marked by wrapping a 0.12mm diameter wire around them. Unilateral facet dislocation at C5-C6 level was simulated by serially sectioning the corresponding ligamentous structures. A CT scan of the specimens was obtained before and after the dislocation was simulated. A sagittal plane through the centre of the pedicle and facet joint was constructed and used for measurement. The height and area of the intervertebral foramen, the facet joint space, nerve root diameter and area, and vertebral alignment both before and after dislocation were evaluated. The intervertebral foramen area changed from 50.72+/-0.88mm(2) to 67.82+/-4.77mm(2) on the non-dislocated side and from 41.39+/-1.11mm(2) to 113.77+/-5.65mm(2) on the dislocated side. The foraminal heights changed from 9.02+/-0.30mm to 10.52+/-0.50mm on the non-dislocated side and 10.43+/-0.50mm to 17.04+/-0.96mm on the dislocated side. The facet space area in the sagittal plane changed from 6.80+/-0.80mm(2) to 40.02+/-1.40mm(2) on the non-dislocated side. The C-5 anterior displacement showed a great change from 0mm to 5.40+/-0.24mm on the non-dislocated side and from 0mm to 3.42+/-0.20mm on the dislocated side. Neither of the nerve roots on either side showed a significant change in size. The lack of change in nerve root area indicates that the associated nerve injury with unilateral facet joint dislocation is probably due

Decadal Changes in Global Ocean Chlorophyll

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gregg, Watson W.; Conkright, Margarita E.; Koblinsky, Chester J. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The global ocean chlorophyll archive produced by the Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS) was revised using compatible algorithms with the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWIFS), and both were blended with in situ data. This methodology permitted a quantitative comparison of decadal changes in global ocean chlorophyll from the CZCS (1979-1986) and SeaWiFS (Sep. 1997-Dec. 2000) records. Global seasonal means of ocean chlorophyll decreased over the two observational segments, by 8% in winter to 16% in autumn. Chlorophyll in the high latitudes was responsible for most of the decadal change. Conversely, chlorophyll concentrations in the low latitudes increased. The differences and similarities of the two data records provide evidence of how the Earth's climate may be changing and how ocean biota respond. Furthermore, the results have implications for the ocean carbon cycle.

Global Climate Change Pilot Course Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schuenemann, K. C.; Wagner, R.

2011-12-01

In fall 2011 a pilot course on "Global Climate Change" is being offered, which has been proposed to educate urban, diverse, undergraduate students about climate change at the introductory level. The course has been approved to fulfill two general college requirements, a natural sciences requirement that focuses on the scientific method, as well as a global diversity requirement. This course presents the science behind global climate change from an Earth systems and atmospheric science perspective. These concepts then provide the basis to explore the effect of global warming on regions throughout the world. Climate change has been taught as a sub-topic in other courses in the past solely using scientific concepts, with little success in altering the climate change misconceptions of the students. This pilot course will see if new, innovative projects described below can make more of an impact on the students' views of climate change. Results of the successes or failures of these projects will be reported, as well as results of a pre- and post-course questionnaire on climate change given to students taking the course. Students in the class will pair off and choose a global region or country that they will research, write papers on, and then represent in four class discussions spaced throughout the semester. The first report will include details on the current climate of their region and how the climate shapes that region's society and culture. The second report will discuss how that region is contributing to climate change and/or sequestering greenhouse gases. Thirdly, students will discuss observed and predicted changes in that region's climate and what impact it has had, and could have, on their society. Lastly, students will report on what role their region has played in mitigating climate change, any policies their region may have implemented, and how their region can or cannot adapt to future climate changes. They will also try to get a feel for the region

Factors determining the level and changes in intra-articular pressure in the knee joint of the dog.

PubMed Central

Nade, S; Newbold, P J

1983-01-01

Intra-articular pressure levels were determined for joint positions throughout the normal physiological range of movement of dogs' knee joints. Change in joint position resulted in change in intra-articular pressure. It was demonstrated that intra-articular pressure is highest with the joint in the fully flexed position. Minimum pressure was recorded at a position between 80 degrees and 120 degrees. Minimum pressures were usually subatmospheric. The rate of change of joint position affected intra-articular pressure. The relationship of intra-articular pressure and joint position before and after full flexion demonstrated a hysteresis effect; the pressures were lower than for the same joint position before flexion. Maintenance of the joint in the fully flexed position for increasing periods of time between repeated movement cycles resulted in a similar reduction, of constant magnitude, in pressure between joint positions before and after each period of flexion. However, there was also a progressive decrease in pressure for all joint angles over the total number of movement cycles. There is a contribution to intra-articular pressure of joint capsular compliance and fluid movement into and out of the joint (both of which are time-dependent). The recording of intra-articular pressure in conscious, upright dogs revealed similar pressure levels to those measured in anaesthetized supine dogs. The major determinants of intra-articular pressure in normal dog knee joints include joint size, synovial fluid volume, position of joint, peri-articular tissue and joint anatomy, membrane permeability, capsular compliance, and movement of fluid into and out of the joint. Images Fig. 1 PMID:6875957

Ankle joint pressure changes in high tibial and distal femoral osteotomies: a cadaver study.

PubMed

Krause, F; Barandun, A; Klammer, G; Zderic, I; Gueorguiev, B; Schmid, T

2017-01-01

To assess the effect of high tibial and distal femoral osteotomies (HTO and DFO) on the pressure characteristics of the ankle joint. Varus and valgus malalignment of the knee was simulated in human cadaver full-length legs. Testing included four measurements: baseline malalignment, 5° and 10° re-aligning osteotomy, and control baseline malalignment. For HTO, testing was rerun with the subtalar joint fixed. In order to represent half body weight, a 300 N force was applied onto the femoral head. Intra-articular sensors captured ankle pressure. In the absence of restriction of subtalar movement, insignificant migration of the centre of force and changes of maximal pressure were seen at the ankle joint. With restricted subtalar motion, more significant lateralisation of the centre of force were seen with the subtalar joint in varus than in valgus position. Changes in maximum pressure were again not significant. The re-alignment of coronal plane knee deformities by HTO and DFO altered ankle pressure characteristics. When the subtalar joint was fixed in the varus position, migration of centre of force after HTO was more significant than when the subtalar joint was fixed in valgus. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2017;99-B:59-65. ©2017 The British Editorial Society of Bone & Joint Surgery.

Changes in temporomandibular joint spaces after arthroscopic disc repositioning: a self-control study

PubMed Central

Kai Hu, Ying; Abdelrehem, Ahmed; Yang, Chi; Cai, Xie Yi; Xie, Qian Yang; Sah, Manoj Kumar

2017-01-01

Disc repositioning is a common procedure for patients with anterior disc displacement (ADD). The purpose of this retrospective record-based study was to evaluate changes in the widths of joint spaces and condylar position changes in patients with unilateral ADD following arthroscopic disc repositioning, with the healthy sides as self-control, using magnetic resonance images (MRI).Widths of anterior, superior, and posterior joint spaces (AS, SS, and PS) were measured. The condylar position was described as anterior, centric or posterior, expressed as . Paired-t test and Chi-square test were used to analyze the data. Fifty-four records conformed to the inclusion criteria (mean age of 21.02 years). Widths of SS and PS increased significantly after surgery (P < 0.001) on the operative sides, while joint spaces of healthy sides and AS of operative sides had no significant changes. Dominant location of condyles of operative sides changed from a posterior position to an anterior position, while healthy sides were mostly centric condylar position no matter preoperatively or postoperatively. Therefore, the results of this study indicate that unilateral arthroscopic disc repositioning significantly increases the posterior and superior spaces of the affected joints, without affecting spaces of the healthy sides. PMID:28361905

Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM)

EPA Science Inventory

The Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) is an integrated assessment model that links the world's energy, agriculture and land use systems with a climate model. The model is designed to assess various climate change policies and technology strategies for the globe over long tim...

Satellite Contributions to Global Change Studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parkinson, Claire L.

2009-01-01

By providing a global view with a level playing field (no region missed because of unfavorable surface conditions or political boundaries), satellites have made major contributions to improved monitoring and understanding of our constantly changing planet. The global view has allowed surprising realizations like the relative sparsity of lightning strikes over oceans and the large-scale undulations on the massive Antarctic ice sheet. It has allowed the tracking of all sorts of phenomena, including aerosols, both natural and anthropogenic, as they move with the atmospheric circulation and impact weather and human health. But probably nothing that the global view allows is more important in the long term than its provision. of unbiased data sets to address the issue of global change, considered by many to be among the most important issues facing humankind today. With satellites we can monitor atmospheric temperatures at all latitudes and longitudes, and obtain a global average that lessens the likelihood of becoming endlessly mired in the confusions brought about by the certainty of regional differences. With satellites we can monitor greenhouse gases such as CO2 not just above individual research stations but around the globe. With satellites we can monitor the polar sea ice covers, as we have done since the late 1970s, determining and quantifying the significant reduction in Arctic sea ice and the slight growth in Antarctic sea ice over that period, With satellites we can map the full extent and changes in the Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletions that were first identified from using a single ground station; and through satellite data we have witnessed from afar land surface changes brought about by humans both intentionally, as with wide-scale deforestation, and unintentionally, as with the decay of the Aral Sea. The satellite data are far from sufficient for all that we need in order to understand the global system and forecast its changes, as we also need

Differential impacts of global change variables on coastal South Atlantic phytoplankton: Role of seasonal variations.

PubMed

Cabrerizo, Marco J; Carrillo, Presentación; Villafañe, Virginia E; Helbling, E Walter

2017-04-01

Global change is associated to the increase in temperature (T), nutrient inputs (Nut) and solar radiation in the water column. To address their joint impact on the net community production [NCP], respiration [CR] and PSII performance (Φ PSII ) of coastal phytoplankton communities from the South Atlantic Ocean over a seasonal succession, we performed a factorial design. For this, we used a 2 × 2 × 2 matrix set-up, with and without UVR, ambient and enriched nutrients, and in situ T and in situ T + 3 °C. The future scenario of global change exerted a dual impact, from an enhancement of NCP and Φ PSII during the pre-bloom to an inhibition of both processes towards the bloom period, when the in situ T and irradiances were lower and the community was dominated by diatoms. The increased inhibition of NCP and Φ PSII during the most productive stage of the annual succession could produce significant alterations of the CO 2 -sink capacity of coastal areas in the future. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Joint scale-change models for recurrent events and failure time.

PubMed

Xu, Gongjun; Chiou, Sy Han; Huang, Chiung-Yu; Wang, Mei-Cheng; Yan, Jun

2017-01-01

Recurrent event data arise frequently in various fields such as biomedical sciences, public health, engineering, and social sciences. In many instances, the observation of the recurrent event process can be stopped by the occurrence of a correlated failure event, such as treatment failure and death. In this article, we propose a joint scale-change model for the recurrent event process and the failure time, where a shared frailty variable is used to model the association between the two types of outcomes. In contrast to the popular Cox-type joint modeling approaches, the regression parameters in the proposed joint scale-change model have marginal interpretations. The proposed approach is robust in the sense that no parametric assumption is imposed on the distribution of the unobserved frailty and that we do not need the strong Poisson-type assumption for the recurrent event process. We establish consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed semiparametric estimators under suitable regularity conditions. To estimate the corresponding variances of the estimators, we develop a computationally efficient resampling-based procedure. Simulation studies and an analysis of hospitalization data from the Danish Psychiatric Central Register illustrate the performance of the proposed method.

[Osteoarthritic changes in hip joint in patients with fractures of femoral neck].

PubMed

Kravtsov, Vladimir; Saranga, Dan; Kidron, Debora

2013-06-01

Fractures of proximal femur are common among elderly people. They are associated with considerable morbidity and mortality. Identification of etiopathogenetic factors associated with fractures might facilitate prevention. Osteoporosis is commonly present in the heads of femurs. The prevalence of osteoarthritic changes in hip joints is controversial. Some authorities report low prevalence and even speculate on the protective effect of osteoarthritis against fractures. The goal of the study was to examine the association between osteoarthritic changes (radiologic and histologic) and fractures of the neck of the femur. The patient population included 41 patients undergoing replacement of femoral head for subcapital fracture; their ages ranged from 61 - 93 years of age. Radiologic criteria for osteoarthritis included: (a)narrowing of joint space (b) subchondral sclerosis (c) deformation of head of femur (d) subchondra cysts and (e] osteophytes. Osteoarthritic changes, usually mild, were present in 22 (54%) patients, regardless of age and gender The frequency of radioLogical changes was similar to the general population. HistoLogic findings included subchondral fibrosis and subchondral cysts. Mild subchondral fibrosis was present in 78% of cases. The findings support lack of association between osteoarthritic changes in hip joint and fracture of proximal femur, without a protective effect.

Global Climate Change and Children's Health.

PubMed

2015-11-01

Rising global temperatures are causing major physical, chemical, and ecological changes in the planet. There is wide consensus among scientific organizations and climatologists that these broad effects, known as "climate change," are the result of contemporary human activity. Climate change poses threats to human health, safety, and security, and children are uniquely vulnerable to these threats. The effects of climate change on child health include: physical and psychological sequelae of weather disasters; increased heat stress; decreased air quality; altered disease patterns of some climate-sensitive infections; and food, water, and nutrient insecurity in vulnerable regions. The social foundations of children's mental and physical health are threatened by the specter of far-reaching effects of unchecked climate change, including community and global instability, mass migrations, and increased conflict. Given this knowledge, failure to take prompt, substantive action would be an act of injustice to all children. A paradigm shift in production and consumption of energy is both a necessity and an opportunity for major innovation, job creation, and significant, immediate associated health benefits. Pediatricians have a uniquely valuable role to play in the societal response to this global challenge. Copyright © 2015 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Botanic gardens science for conservation and global change.

PubMed

Donaldson, John S

2009-11-01

The contributions of botanic gardens to conservation biology and global-change research need to be understood within the context of the traditional strengths of such gardens in herbarium collections, living collections and interactions with the public. Here, I propose that research in conservation planning, modelling species responses to climate change, conservation of threatened species and experimental tests of global change build on the core strengths of botanic gardens. However, there are limits to what can be achieved through traditional gardens-based programs, and some botanic gardens have adapted their research to include studies of threatening processes and to monitor and verify global-change impacts. There is an opportunity for botanic gardens to use their living collections more effectively in global-change research and for them to have a role in linking biodiversity conservation with benefits derived from ecosystem services.

Projecting global land-use change and its effect on ecosystem service provision and biodiversity with simple models.

PubMed

Nelson, Erik; Sander, Heather; Hawthorne, Peter; Conte, Marc; Ennaanay, Driss; Wolny, Stacie; Manson, Steven; Polasky, Stephen

2010-12-15

As the global human population grows and its consumption patterns change, additional land will be needed for living space and agricultural production. A critical question facing global society is how to meet growing human demands for living space, food, fuel, and other materials while sustaining ecosystem services and biodiversity [1]. We spatially allocate two scenarios of 2000 to 2015 global areal change in urban land and cropland at the grid cell-level and measure the impact of this change on the provision of ecosystem services and biodiversity. The models and techniques used to spatially allocate land-use/land-cover (LULC) change and evaluate its impact on ecosystems are relatively simple and transparent [2]. The difference in the magnitude and pattern of cropland expansion across the two scenarios engenders different tradeoffs among crop production, provision of species habitat, and other important ecosystem services such as biomass carbon storage. For example, in one scenario, 5.2 grams of carbon stored in biomass is released for every additional calorie of crop produced across the globe; under the other scenario this tradeoff rate is 13.7. By comparing scenarios and their impacts we can begin to identify the global pattern of cropland and irrigation development that is significant enough to meet future food needs but has less of an impact on ecosystem service and habitat provision. Urban area and croplands will expand in the future to meet human needs for living space, livelihoods, and food. In order to jointly provide desired levels of urban land, food production, and ecosystem service and species habitat provision the global society will have to become much more strategic in its allocation of intensively managed land uses. Here we illustrate a method for quickly and transparently evaluating the performance of potential global futures.

Climate change and the global malaria recession.

PubMed

Gething, Peter W; Smith, David L; Patil, Anand P; Tatem, Andrew J; Snow, Robert W; Hay, Simon I

2010-05-20

The current and potential future impact of climate change on malaria is of major public health interest. The proposed effects of rising global temperatures on the future spread and intensification of the disease, and on existing malaria morbidity and mortality rates, substantively influence global health policy. The contemporary spatial limits of Plasmodium falciparum malaria and its endemicity within this range, when compared with comparable historical maps, offer unique insights into the changing global epidemiology of malaria over the last century. It has long been known that the range of malaria has contracted through a century of economic development and disease control. Here, for the first time, we quantify this contraction and the global decreases in malaria endemicity since approximately 1900. We compare the magnitude of these changes to the size of effects on malaria endemicity proposed under future climate scenarios and associated with widely used public health interventions. Our findings have two key and often ignored implications with respect to climate change and malaria. First, widespread claims that rising mean temperatures have already led to increases in worldwide malaria morbidity and mortality are largely at odds with observed decreasing global trends in both its endemicity and geographic extent. Second, the proposed future effects of rising temperatures on endemicity are at least one order of magnitude smaller than changes observed since about 1900 and up to two orders of magnitude smaller than those that can be achieved by the effective scale-up of key control measures. Predictions of an intensification of malaria in a warmer world, based on extrapolated empirical relationships or biological mechanisms, must be set against a context of a century of warming that has seen marked global declines in the disease and a substantial weakening of the global correlation between malaria endemicity and climate.

Useful global-change scenarios: current issues and challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parson, E. A.

2008-10-01

Scenarios are increasingly used to inform global-change debates, but their connection to decisions has been weak and indirect. This reflects the greater number and variety of potential users and scenario needs, relative to other decision domains where scenario use is more established. Global-change scenario needs include common elements, e.g., model-generated projections of emissions and climate change, needed by many users but in different ways and with different assumptions. For these common elements, the limited ability to engage diverse global-change users in scenario development requires extreme transparency in communicating underlying reasoning and assumptions, including probability judgments. Other scenario needs are specific to users, requiring a decentralized network of scenario and assessment organizations to disseminate and interpret common elements and add elements requiring local context or expertise. Such an approach will make global-change scenarios more useful for decisions, but not less controversial. Despite predictable attacks, scenario-based reasoning is necessary for responsible global-change decisions because decision-relevant uncertainties cannot be specified scientifically. The purpose of scenarios is not to avoid speculation, but to make the required speculation more disciplined, more anchored in relevant scientific knowledge when available, and more transparent.

Joint implementation: Biodiversity and greenhouse gas offsets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cutright, Noel J.

1996-11-01

One of the most pressing environmental issues today is the possibility that projected increases in global emissions of greenhouse gases from increased deforestation, development, and fossil-fuel combustion could significantly alter global climate patterns. Under the terms of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, signed in Rio de Janeiro during the June 1992 Earth Summit, the United States and other industrialized countries committed to balancing greenhouse gas emissions at 1990 levels in the year 2000. Included in the treaty is a provision titled “Joint Implementation,” whereby industrialized countries assist developing countries in jointly modifying long-term emission trends, either through emission reductions or by protecting and enhancing greenhouse gas sinks (carbon sequestration). The US Climate Action Plan, signed by President Clinton in 1993, calls for voluntary climate change mitigation measures by various sectors, and the action plan included a new program, the US Initiative on Joint Implementation. Wisconsin Electric decided to invest in a Jl project because its concept encourages creative, cost-effective solutions to environmental problems through partnering, international cooperation, and innovation. The project chosen, a forest preservation and management effort in Belize, will sequester more than five million tons of carbon dioxide over a 40-year period, will become economically selfsustaining after ten years, and will have substantial biodiversity benefits.

Global climate change and infectious diseases.

PubMed Central

Shope, R

1991-01-01

The effects of global climate change on infectious diseases are hypothetical until more is known about the degree of change in temperature and humidity that will occur. Diseases most likely to increase in their distribution and severity have three-factor (agent, vector, and human being) and four-factor (plus vertebrate reservoir host) ecology. Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes may move northward and have more rapid metamorphosis with global warming. These mosquitoes transmit dengue virus, and Aedes aegypti transmits yellow fever virus. The faster metamorphosis and a shorter extrinsic incubation of dengue and yellow fever viruses could lead to epidemics in North America. Vibrio cholerae is harbored persistently in the estuaries of the U.S. Gulf Coast. Over the past 200 years, cholera has become pandemic seven times with spread from Asia to Europe, Africa, and North America. Global warming may lead to changes in water ecology that could enhance similar spread of cholera in North America. Some other infectious diseases such as LaCrosse encephalitis and Lyme disease are caused by agents closely dependent on the integrity of their environment. These diseases may become less prominent with global warming because of anticipated modification of their habitats. Ecological studies will help us to understand more fully the possible consequences of global warming. New and more effective methods for control of vectors will be needed. PMID:1820262

Joint pain undergoes a transition in accordance with signal changes of bones detected by MRI in hip osteoarthritis.

PubMed

Kamimura, Mikio; Nakamura, Yukio; Ikegami, Shota; Uchiyama, Shigeharu; Kato, Hiroyuki

2013-01-01

In this study, we aimed to investigate whether joint pain is derived from cartilage or bone alterations. We reviewed 23 hip joints of 21 patients with primary hip osteoarthritis (OA), which were classified into Kellgren-Laurence (KL) grading I to IV. Plain radiographs and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) were obtained from all of the 23 joints. Two of the 21 patients had bilateral hip OA. Pain was assessed based on the pain scale of Denis. A Welch t test was performed for age, height, weight, body mass index, bone mineral density, and a Mann-Whitney U test was performed for KL grading. Four of 8 hip joints with pain and OA showed broad signal changes detected by MRI. Fourteen hip joints without pain, but with OA did not show broad signal changes by MRI. Collectively, MRI analyses showed that broad signal changes in OA cases without joint pain or with a slight degree of joint pain were not observed, while broad signal changes were observed in OA cases with deteriorated joint pain. Our findings suggest that hip joint pain might be associated with bone signal alterations in the hips of OA patients.

Engineering paradigms and anthropogenic global change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bohle, Martin

2016-04-01

This essay discusses 'paradigms' as means to conceive anthropogenic global change. Humankind alters earth-systems because of the number of people, the patterns of consumption of resources, and the alterations of environments. This process of anthropogenic global change is a composite consisting of societal (in the 'noosphere') and natural (in the 'bio-geosphere') features. Engineering intercedes these features; e.g. observing stratospheric ozone depletion has led to understanding it as a collateral artefact of a particular set of engineering choices. Beyond any specific use-case, engineering works have a common function; e.g. civil-engineering intersects economic activity and geosphere. People conceive their actions in the noosphere including giving purpose to their engineering. The 'noosphere' is the ensemble of social, cultural or political concepts ('shared subjective mental insights') of people. Among people's concepts are the paradigms how to shape environments, production systems and consumption patterns given their societal preferences. In that context, engineering is a means to implement a given development path. Four paradigms currently are distinguishable how to make anthropogenic global change happening. Among the 'engineering paradigms' for anthropogenic global change, 'adaptation' is a paradigm for a business-as-usual scenario and steady development paths of societies. Applying this paradigm implies to forecast the change to come, to appropriately design engineering works, and to maintain as far as possible the current production and consumption patterns. An alternative would be to adjust incrementally development paths of societies, namely to 'dovetail' anthropogenic and natural fluxes of matter and energy. To apply that paradigm research has to identify 'natural boundaries', how to modify production and consumption patterns, and how to tackle process in the noosphere to render alterations of common development paths acceptable. A further alternative

Global Change in the Great Lakes: Scenarios.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Garrison, Barbara K., Ed.; Rosser, Arrye R., Ed.

The Ohio Sea Grant Education Program has produced this series of publications designed to help people understand how global change may affect the Great Lakes region. The possible implications of global change for this region of the world are explained in the hope that policymakers and individuals will be more inclined to make responsible decisions…

Challenges of Global Change for Lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seekell, D.

2016-12-01

Lakes comprise a tiny fraction of Earth's surface, but contribute significantly to human life and wellbeing. Many lakes are disappearing due to climate change and water diversions, and there are widespread disruptions to ecosystem processes due to human influences. For example, pollution by nutrients and toxic chemicals causes toxicity to humans, livestock, fish, and wildlife. Lake desiccation reduces economic opportunity and food security, displacing entire communities. Understanding these changes at the global scale, and their implications for human societies, are a key challenges for aquatic scientists. In this talk, I will use results from my research to highlight some of the key uncertainties related to global change and lakes, as well as recent developments by aquatic scientists aimed at predicting, mitigating, and coping with these changes.

Open access: changing global science publishing.

PubMed

Gasparyan, Armen Yuri; Ayvazyan, Lilit; Kitas, George D

2013-08-01

The article reflects on open access as a strategy of changing the quality of science communication globally. Successful examples of open-access journals are presented to highlight implications of archiving in open digital repositories for the quality and citability of research output. Advantages and downsides of gold, green, and hybrid models of open access operating in diverse scientific environments are described. It is assumed that open access is a global trend which influences the workflow in scholarly journals, changing their quality, credibility, and indexability.

Human-experienced temperature changes exceed global average climate changes for all income groups

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsiang, S. M.; Parshall, L.

2009-12-01

Global climate change alters local climates everywhere. Many climate change impacts, such as those affecting health, agriculture and labor productivity, depend on these local climatic changes, not global mean change. Traditional, spatially averaged climate change estimates are strongly influenced by the response of icecaps and oceans, providing limited information on human-experienced climatic changes. If used improperly by decision-makers, these estimates distort estimated costs of climate change. We overlay the IPCC’s 20 GCM simulations on the global population distribution to estimate local climatic changes experienced by the world population in the 21st century. The A1B scenario leads to a well-known rise in global average surface temperature of +2.0°C between the periods 2011-2030 and 2080-2099. Projected on the global population distribution in 2000, the median human will experience an annual average rise of +2.3°C (4.1°F) and the average human will experience a rise of +2.4°C (4.3°F). Less than 1% of the population will experience changes smaller than +1.0°C (1.8°F), while 25% and 10% of the population will experience changes greater than +2.9°C (5.2°F) and +3.5°C (6.2°F) respectively. 67% of the world population experiences temperature changes greater than the area-weighted average change of +2.0°C (3.6°F). Using two approaches to characterize the spatial distribution of income, we show that the wealthiest, middle and poorest thirds of the global population experience similar changes, with no group dominating the global average. Calculations for precipitation indicate that there is little change in average precipitation, but redistributions of precipitation occur in all income groups. These results suggest that economists and policy-makers using spatially averaged estimates of climate change to approximate local changes will systematically and significantly underestimate the impacts of climate change on the 21st century population. Top: The

Global climate change and infectious diseases

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shope, R.

1991-12-01

The effects of global climate change on infectious diseases are hypothetical until more is known about the degree of change in temperature and humidity that will occur. Diseases most likely to increase in their distribution and severity have three-factor (agent, vector, and human being) and four-factor (plus vertebrate reservoir host) ecology. Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes may move northward and have more rapid metamorphosis with global warming. These mosquitoes transmit dengue virus, and Aedes aegypti transmits yellow fever virus. The faster metamorphosis and a shorter extrinsic incubation of dengue and yellow fever viruses could lead to epidemics in Northmore » America. Vibrio cholera is harbored persistently in the estuaries of the U.S. Gulf Coast. Over the past 200 years, cholera has become pandemic seven times with spread from Asia to Europe, Africa, and North America. Global warming may lead to changes in water ecology that could enhance similar spread of cholera in North America. Some other infectious diseases such as LaCrosse encephalitis and Lyme disease are caused by agents closely dependent on the integrity of their environment. These diseases may become less prominent with global warming because of anticipated modification of their habitats. Ecological studies will help as to understand more fully the possible consequences of global warming. New and more effective methods for control of vectors will be needed. 12 refs., 1 tab.« less

Teaching about Global Climate Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Heffron, Susan Gallagher; Valmond, Kharra

2011-01-01

Students are exposed to many different media reports about global climate change. Movies such as "The Day After Tomorrow" and "Ice Age" are examples of instances when movie producers have sought to capture the attention of audiences by augmenting the challenges that climate change poses. Students may receive information from a wide range of media…

Global climate change impacts on forests and markets

Treesearch

Xiaohui Tian; Brent Sohngen; John B Kim; Sara Ohrel; Jefferson Cole

2016-01-01

This paper develops an economic analysis of climate change impacts in the global forest sector. It illustrates how potential future climate change impacts can be integrated into a dynamic forestry economics model using data from a global dynamic vegetation model, theMC2model. The results suggest that climate change will cause forest outputs (such as timber) to increase...

Estimating Global Precipitation for Science and Application

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huffman, George J.

2013-01-01

Over the past two decades there has been vigorous development in the satellite assets and the algorithms necessary to estimate precipitation around the globe. In particular the highly successful joint NASAJAXA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and the upcoming Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission, also joint between NASA and JAXA, have driven these issues. At the same time, the long-running Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) continues to extend a stable, climate-oriented view of global precipitation. This talk will provide an overview of these projects and the wider international community of precipitation datasets, sketch plans for next-generation products, and provide some examples of the best use for the different products. One key lesson learned is that different data sets are needed to address the variety of issues that need precipitation data, including detailed 3-D views of hurricanes, flash flood forecasting, drought analysis, and global change.

Changes in Muscle and Joint Coordination in Learning to Direct Forces

PubMed Central

Hasson, Christopher J.; Caldwell, Graham E.; van Emmerik, Richard E.A.

2008-01-01

While it has been suggested that biarticular muscles have a specialized role in directing external reaction forces, it is unclear how humans learn to coordinate mono- and bi-articular muscles to perform force-directing tasks. Subjects were asked to direct pedal forces in a specified target direction during one-legged cycling. We expected that with practice, performance improvement would be associated with specific changes in joint torque patterns and mono- and bi-articular muscular coordination. Nine male subjects practiced pedaling an ergometer with only their left leg, and were instructed to always direct their applied pedal force perpendicular to the crank arm (target direction) and to maintain a constant pedaling speed. After a single practice session, the mean error between the applied and target pedal force directions decreased significantly. This improved performance was accompanied by a significant decrease in the amount of ankle angular motion and a smaller increase in knee and hip angular motion. This coincided with a re-organization of lower extremity joint torques, with a decrease in ankle plantarflexor torque and an increase in knee and hip flexor torques. Changes were seen in both mono- and bi-articular muscle activity patterns. The monoarticular muscles exhibited greater alterations, and appeared to contribute to both mechanical work and force directing. With practice, a loosening of the coupling between biarticular thigh muscle activation and joint torque co-regulation was observed. The results demonstrated that subjects were able to learn a complex and dynamic force-directing task by changing the direction of their applied pedal forces through re-organization of joint torque patterns and mono- and bi-articular muscle coordination. PMID:18405988

Changes in muscle and joint coordination in learning to direct forces.

PubMed

Hasson, Christopher J; Caldwell, Graham E; van Emmerik, Richard E A

2008-08-01

While it has been suggested that bi-articular muscles have a specialized role in directing external reaction forces, it is unclear how humans learn to coordinate mono- and bi-articular muscles to perform force-directing tasks. Participants were asked to direct pedal forces in a specified target direction during one-legged cycling. We expected that with practice, performance improvement would be associated with specific changes in joint torque patterns and mono- and bi-articular muscular coordination. Nine male participants practiced pedaling an ergometer with only their left leg, and were instructed to always direct their applied pedal force perpendicular to the crank arm (target direction) and to maintain a constant pedaling speed. After a single practice session, the mean error between the applied and target pedal force directions decreased significantly. This improved performance was accompanied by a significant decrease in the amount of ankle angular motion and a smaller increase in knee and hip angular motion. This coincided with a re-organization of lower extremity joint torques, with a decrease in ankle plantarflexor torque and an increase in knee and hip flexor torques. Changes were seen in both mono- and bi-articular muscle activity patterns. The mono-articular muscles exhibited greater alterations, and appeared to contribute to both mechanical work and force-directing. With practice, a loosening of the coupling between bi-articular thigh muscle activation and joint torque co-regulation was observed. The results demonstrated that participants were able to learn a complex and dynamic force-directing task by changing the direction of their applied pedal forces through re-organization of joint torque patterns and mono- and bi-articular muscle coordination.

Global change and wilderness science

Treesearch

Peter M. Vitousek; John D. Aber; Christine L. Goodale; Gregory H. Aplet

2000-01-01

The breadth and scope of human-caused environmental change is well-established; the distribution and abundance of species, the vegetation cover of the land, and the chemistry of the atmosphere have been altered substantially and globally. How can science in wilderness areas contribute to the analysis of human-caused change? We use nitrate losses from forests to...

Joint Probability Analysis of Extreme Precipitation and Storm Tide in a Coastal City under Changing Environment

PubMed Central

Xu, Kui; Ma, Chao; Lian, Jijian; Bin, Lingling

2014-01-01

Catastrophic flooding resulting from extreme meteorological events has occurred more frequently and drawn great attention in recent years in China. In coastal areas, extreme precipitation and storm tide are both inducing factors of flooding and therefore their joint probability would be critical to determine the flooding risk. The impact of storm tide or changing environment on flooding is ignored or underestimated in the design of drainage systems of today in coastal areas in China. This paper investigates the joint probability of extreme precipitation and storm tide and its change using copula-based models in Fuzhou City. The change point at the year of 1984 detected by Mann-Kendall and Pettitt’s tests divides the extreme precipitation series into two subsequences. For each subsequence the probability of the joint behavior of extreme precipitation and storm tide is estimated by the optimal copula. Results show that the joint probability has increased by more than 300% on average after 1984 (α = 0.05). The design joint return period (RP) of extreme precipitation and storm tide is estimated to propose a design standard for future flooding preparedness. For a combination of extreme precipitation and storm tide, the design joint RP has become smaller than before. It implies that flooding would happen more often after 1984, which corresponds with the observation. The study would facilitate understanding the change of flood risk and proposing the adaption measures for coastal areas under a changing environment. PMID:25310006

Joint probability analysis of extreme precipitation and storm tide in a coastal city under changing environment.

PubMed

Xu, Kui; Ma, Chao; Lian, Jijian; Bin, Lingling

2014-01-01

Catastrophic flooding resulting from extreme meteorological events has occurred more frequently and drawn great attention in recent years in China. In coastal areas, extreme precipitation and storm tide are both inducing factors of flooding and therefore their joint probability would be critical to determine the flooding risk. The impact of storm tide or changing environment on flooding is ignored or underestimated in the design of drainage systems of today in coastal areas in China. This paper investigates the joint probability of extreme precipitation and storm tide and its change using copula-based models in Fuzhou City. The change point at the year of 1984 detected by Mann-Kendall and Pettitt's tests divides the extreme precipitation series into two subsequences. For each subsequence the probability of the joint behavior of extreme precipitation and storm tide is estimated by the optimal copula. Results show that the joint probability has increased by more than 300% on average after 1984 (α = 0.05). The design joint return period (RP) of extreme precipitation and storm tide is estimated to propose a design standard for future flooding preparedness. For a combination of extreme precipitation and storm tide, the design joint RP has become smaller than before. It implies that flooding would happen more often after 1984, which corresponds with the observation. The study would facilitate understanding the change of flood risk and proposing the adaption measures for coastal areas under a changing environment.

Future global mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change

DOE PAGES

Silva, Raquel A.; West, J. Jason; Lamarque, Jean-François; ...

2017-07-31

Ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) are associated with premature human mortality(1-4); their future concentrations depend on changes in emissions, which dominate the near-term(5), and on climate change(6,7). Previous global studies of the air-quality-related health effects of future climate change(8,9) used single atmospheric models. But, in related studies, mortality results differ among models(10-12). Here we use an ensemble of global chemistry-climate models(13) to show that premature mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change, under the high greenhouse gas scenario RCP8.5 (ref. 14), is probably positive. We estimate 3,340 (-30,300 to 47,100) ozone-related deaths in 2030, relativemore » to 2000 climate, and 43,600 (-195,000 to 237,000) in 2100 (14% of the increase in global ozone-related mortality). For PM2.5, we estimate 55,600 (-34,300 to 164,000) deaths in 2030 and 215,000 (-76,100 to 595,000) in 2100 (countering by 16% the global decrease in PM2.5-related mortality). Premature mortality attributable to climate change is estimated to be positive in all regions except Africa, and is greatest in India and East Asia. Finally, most individual models yield increased mortality from climate change, but some yield decreases, suggesting caution in interpreting results from a single model. Climate change mitigation is likely to reduce air-pollution-related mortality.« less

Future Global Mortality from Changes in Air Pollution Attributable to Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Silva, Raquel A.; West, J. Jason; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Shindell, Drew T.; Collins, William J.; Faluvegi, Greg; Folberth, Gerd A.; Horowitz, Larry W.; Nagashima, Tatsuya; Naik, Vaishali;

Future global mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Silva, Raquel A.; West, J. Jason; Lamarque, Jean-François

Ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) are associated with premature human mortality(1-4); their future concentrations depend on changes in emissions, which dominate the near-term(5), and on climate change(6,7). Previous global studies of the air-quality-related health effects of future climate change(8,9) used single atmospheric models. But, in related studies, mortality results differ among models(10-12). Here we use an ensemble of global chemistry-climate models(13) to show that premature mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change, under the high greenhouse gas scenario RCP8.5 (ref. 14), is probably positive. We estimate 3,340 (-30,300 to 47,100) ozone-related deaths in 2030, relativemore » to 2000 climate, and 43,600 (-195,000 to 237,000) in 2100 (14% of the increase in global ozone-related mortality). For PM2.5, we estimate 55,600 (-34,300 to 164,000) deaths in 2030 and 215,000 (-76,100 to 595,000) in 2100 (countering by 16% the global decrease in PM2.5-related mortality). Premature mortality attributable to climate change is estimated to be positive in all regions except Africa, and is greatest in India and East Asia. Finally, most individual models yield increased mortality from climate change, but some yield decreases, suggesting caution in interpreting results from a single model. Climate change mitigation is likely to reduce air-pollution-related mortality.« less

U.S. Global Change Research Program

MedlinePlus

... Announcing... Read more The Deepening Story of How Climate Change Threatens Human Health Read more Celebrating the 25th Anniversary of the U.S. Global Change Research... Read more Nomination Period Open for ... more Connecting America’s Communities with Actionable Climate ...

Ozone, Climate, and Global Atmospheric Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Levine, Joel S.

1992-01-01

The delicate balance of the gases that make up our atmosphere allows life to exist on Earth. Ozone depletion and global warming are related to changes in the concentrations of these gases. To solve global atmospheric problems, we need to understand the composition and chemistry of the Earth's atmosphere and the impact of human activities on them.

Global change technology architecture trade study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Garrett, L. Bernard (Editor); Hypes, Warren D. (Editor); Wright, Robert L. (Editor)

1991-01-01

Described here is an architecture trade study conducted by the Langley Research Center to develop a representative mix of advanced space science instrumentation, spacecraft, and mission orbits to assist in the technology selection processes. The analyses concentrated on the highest priority classes of global change measurements which are the global climate changes. Issues addressed in the tradeoffs includes assessments of the economics of scale of large platforms with multiple instruments relative to smaller spacecraft; the influences of current and possible future launch vehicles on payload sizes, and on-orbit assembly decisions; and the respective roles of low-Earth versus geostationary Earth orbiting systems.

Persistent Identification of Agents and Objects of Global Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tilmes, C.; Fox, P. A.; Waple, A.; Zednik, S.

2012-12-01

"Global Change" includes climate change, ecological change, land-use changes and host of other interacting complex systems including societal and institutional implications. This vast body of information includes scientific research, data, measurements, models, analyses, assessments, etc. It is produced by a collection of multi-disciplinary researchers and organizations from around the world and demand for this information is increasing from a multitude of different audiences and stakeholders. The identification and organization of the agents and objects of global change information and their inter-relationships and contributions to the whole story of change is critical for conveying the state of knowledge, its complexity as well as syntheses and key messages to researchers, decision makers, and the public. The U.S. Global Change Research Program (http://globalchange.gov) coordinates and integrates federal research on changes in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP is developing a Global Change Information System (GCIS) that will organize and present our best understanding of global change, and all the contributing information that leads to that understanding, including the provenance needed to trust and use that information. The first implementation will provide provenance for the National Climate Assessment (NCA). (http://assessment.globalchange.gov) The NCA must integrate, evaluate, and interpret the findings of the USGCRP; analyze the effects of global change on the natural environment, agriculture, energy production and use, land and water resources, transportation, human health and welfare, human social systems, and biological diversity; and analyze current trends in global change, both human-induced and natural, and projects major trends for the subsequent 25 to 100 years. It also assesses information at the regional scale across the Nation. A synthesis report is required not less frequently than every four years and the next

Understanding Global Change: Tools for exploring Earth processes and biotic change through time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bean, J. R.; White, L. D.; Berbeco, M.

2014-12-01

Teaching global change is one of the great pedagogical challenges of our day because real understanding entails integrating a variety of concepts from different scientific subject areas, including chemistry, physics, and biology, with a variety of causes and impacts in the past, present, and future. With the adoption of the Next Generation Science Standards, which emphasize climate change and other human impacts on natural systems, there has never been a better time to provide instructional support to educators on these topics. In response to this clear need, the University of California Museum of Paleontology, in collaboration with the National Center for Science Education, developed a new web resource for teachers and students titled "Understanding Global Change" (UGC) that introduces the drivers and impacts of global change. This website clarifies the connections among deep time, modern Earth system processes, and anthropogenic influences, and provides K-16 instructors with a wide range of easy-to-use tools, strategies, and lesson plans for communicating these important concepts regarding global change and the basic Earth systems processes. In summer 2014, the UGC website was field-tested during a workshop with 25 K-12 teachers and science educators. Feedback from participants helped the UGC team develop and identify pedagogically sound lesson plans and instructional tools on global change. These resources are accessible through UGC's searchable database, are aligned with NGSS and Common Core, and are categorized by grade level, subject, and level of inquiry-based instruction (confirmation, structured, guided, open). Providing a range of content and tools at levels appropriate for teachers is essential because our initial needs assessment found that educators often feel that they lack the content knowledge and expertise to address complex, but relevant global change issues, such as ocean acidification and deforestation. Ongoing needs assessments and surveys of

Large space-based systems for dealing with global environment change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jenkins, Lyle M.

1992-01-01

Increased concern over the effects of global climate change and depletion of the ozone layer has resulted in support for the Global Change Research Program and the Mission to Planet Earth. Research to understand Earth system processes is critical, but it falls short of providing ways of mitigating the effects of change. Geoengineering options and alternatives to interactively manage change need to be developed. Space-based concepts for dealing with changes to the environment should be considered in addition to Earth-based actions. 'Mission for Planet Earth' describes those space-based geoengineering solutions that may combine with an international global change program to stabilize the Global environment. Large space systems that may be needed for this response challenge guidance and control engineering and technology. Definition, analysis, demonstration, and preparation of geoengineering technology will provide a basis for policy response if global change consequences are severe.

Effects of three global change drivers on terrestrial C:N:P stoichiometry: a global synthesis.

PubMed

Yue, Kai; Fornara, Dario A; Yang, Wanqin; Peng, Yan; Li, Zhijie; Wu, Fuzhong; Peng, Changhui

2017-06-01

Over the last few decades, there has been an increasing number of controlled-manipulative experiments to investigate how plants and soils might respond to global change. These experiments typically examined the effects of each of three global change drivers [i.e., nitrogen (N) deposition, warming, and elevated CO 2 ] on primary productivity and on the biogeochemistry of carbon (C), N, and phosphorus (P) across different terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we capitalize on this large amount of information by performing a comprehensive meta-analysis (>2000 case studies worldwide) to address how C:N:P stoichiometry of plants, soils, and soil microbial biomass might respond to individual vs. combined effects of the three global change drivers. Our results show that (i) individual effects of N addition and elevated CO 2 on C:N:P stoichiometry are stronger than warming, (ii) combined effects of pairs of global change drivers (e.g., N addition + elevated CO 2 , warming + elevated CO 2 ) on C:N:P stoichiometry were generally weaker than the individual effects of each of these drivers, (iii) additive interactions (i.e., when combined effects are equal to or not significantly different from the sum of individual effects) were more common than synergistic or antagonistic interactions, (iv) C:N:P stoichiometry of soil and soil microbial biomass shows high homeostasis under global change manipulations, and (v) C:N:P responses to global change are strongly affected by ecosystem type, local climate, and experimental conditions. Our study is one of the first to compare individual vs. combined effects of the three global change drivers on terrestrial C:N:P ratios using a large set of data. To further improve our understanding of how ecosystems might respond to future global change, long-term ecosystem-scale studies testing multifactor effects on plants and soils are urgently required across different world regions. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Environmental Disruption of Circadian Rhythm Predisposes Mice to Osteoarthritis-Like Changes in Knee Joint

PubMed Central

Voigt, Robin M; Ellman, Michael B; Summa, Keith C; Vitaterna, Martha Hotz; Keshavarizian, Ali; Turek, Fred W; Meng, Qing-Jun; Stein, Gary S.; van Wijnen, Andre J.; Chen, Di; Forsyth, Christopher B; Im, Hee-Jeong

2015-01-01

Circadian rhythm dysfunction is linked to many diseases, yet pathophysiological roles in articular cartilage homeostasis and degenerative joint disease including osteoarthritis (OA) remains to be investigated in vivo. Here, we tested whether environmental or genetic disruption of circadian homeostasis predisposes to OA-like pathological changes. Male mice were examined for circadian locomotor activity upon changes in the light:dark (LD) cycle or genetic disruption of circadian rhythms. Wild-type (WT) mice were maintained on a constant 12 hour:12 hour LD cycle (12:12 LD) or exposed to weekly 12 hour phase shifts. Alternatively, male circadian mutant mice (ClockΔ19 or Csnk1etau mutants) were compared with age-matched WT littermates that were maintained on a constant 12:12 LD cycle. Disruption of circadian rhythms promoted osteoarthritic changes by suppressing proteoglycan accumulation, upregulating matrix-degrading enzymes and downregulating anabolic mediators in the mouse knee joint. Mechanistically, these effects involved activation of the PKCδ-ERK-RUNX2/NFκB and β-catenin signaling pathways, stimulation of MMP-13 and ADAMTS-5, as well as suppression of the anabolic mediators SOX9 and TIMP-3 in articular chondrocytes of phase-shifted mice. Genetic disruption of circadian homeostasis does not predispose to OA-like pathological changes in joints. Our results, for the first time, provide compelling in vivo evidence that environmental disruption of circadian rhythms is a risk factor for the development of OA-like pathological changes in the mouse knee joint. PMID:25655021

Global, long-term Earth Science Data Records of forest cover, change, and fragmentation from Landsat: the Global Forest Cover Change Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sexton, J.; Huang, C.; Channan, S.; Feng, M.; Song, X.; Kim, D.; Song, D.; Vermote, E.; Masek, J.; Townshend, J. R.

2013-12-01

Monitoring, analysis, and management of forests require measurements of forest cover that are both spatio-temporally consistent and resolved globally at sub-hectare resolution. The Global Forest Cover Change project, a cooperation between the University of Maryland Global Land Cover Facility and NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, is providing the first long-term, sub-hectare, globally consistent data records of forest cover, change, and fragmentation in circa-1975, -1990, -2000, and -2005 epochs. These data are derived from the Global Land Survey collection of Landsat images in the respective epochs, atmospherically corrected to surface reflectance in 1990, 2000, and 2005 using the Landsat Ecosystem Disturbance Adaptive Processing System (LEDAPS) implementation of the 6S radiative transfer algorithm, with ancillary information from MODIS Land products, ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM), and climatological data layers. Forest cover and change were estimated by a novel continuous-field approach, which produced for the 2000 and 2005 epochs the world's first global, 30-m resolution database of tree cover. Surface reflectance estimates were validated against coincident MODIS measurements, the results of which have been corroborated by subsequent, independent validations against measurements from AERONET sites. Uncertainties in tree- and forest-cover values were estimated in each pixel as a compounding of within-sample uncertainty and accuracy relative to a sample of independent measurements from small-footprint lidar. Accuracy of forest cover and change estimates was further validated relative to expert-interpreted high-resolution imagery, from which unbiased estimates of forest cover and change have been produced at national and eco-regional scales. These first-of-kind Earth Science Data Records--surface reflectance in 1990, 2000, and 2005 and forest cover, change, and fragmentation in and between 1975, 1990, 2000, and 2005--are hosted at native, Landsat

Global Responses to Potential Climate Change: A Simulation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Williams, Mary Louise; Mowry, George

This interdisciplinary five-day unit provides students with an understanding of the issues in the debate on global climate change. Introductory lessons enhance understanding of the "greenhouse gases" and their sources with possible global effects of climate change. Students then roleplay negotiators from 10 nations in a simulation of the…

Regional to global changes in drought and implications for future changes under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.; Kam, J.

2012-12-01

Drought can have large impacts on multiple sectors, including agriculture, water resources, ecosystems, transport, industry and tourism. In extreme cases, regional drought can lead to food insecurity and famine, and in intensive agricultural regions, extend to global economic impacts in a connected world. Recent droughts globally have been severe and costly but whether they are becoming more frequent and severe, and the attribution of this, is a key question. Observational evidence at large scales, such as satellite remote sensing are often subject to short-term records and inhomogeneities, and ground based data are sparse in many regions. Reliance on model output is also subject to error and simplifications in the model physics that can, for example, amplify the impact of global warming on drought. This presentation will show the observational and model evidence for changes in drought, with a focus on the interplay between precipitation and atmospheric evaporative demand and its impact on the terrestrial water cycle and drought. We discuss the fidelity of climate models to reproduce our best estimates of drought variability and its drivers historically, and the implications of this on uncertainties in future projections of drought from CMIP5 models, and how this has changed since CMIP3.

GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH NEWS #10: MULTIAGENCY, MULTINATIONAL GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH EFFORT IN THE UPPER SAN PEDRO BASIN

EPA Science Inventory

This edition reports on a multiagency, multinational global-change research effort that seeks to evaluate the consequences of natural and human-induced changes in semi-arid environments. The Semi-Arid Land-Surface-Atmosphere Program ("SALSA") is focused on the environmentally sen...

Interpreting change from patient reported outcome (PRO) endpoints: patient global ratings of concept versus patient global ratings of change, a case study among osteoporosis patients.

PubMed

Nixon, Annabel; Doll, Helen; Kerr, Cicely; Burge, Russel; Naegeli, April N

2016-02-19

Regulatory guidance recommends anchor-based methods for interpretation of treatment effects measured by PRO endpoints. Methodological pros and cons of patient global ratings of change vs. patient global ratings of concept have been discussed but empirical evidence in support of either approach is lacking. This study evaluated the performance of patient global ratings of change and patient global ratings of concept for interpreting patient stability and patient improvement. Patient global ratings of change and patient global ratings of concept were included in a psychometric validation study of an osteoporosis-targeted PRO instrument (the OPAQ-PF) to assess its ability to detect change and to derive responder definitions. 144 female osteoporosis patients with (n = 37) or without (n = 107) a recent (within 6 weeks) fragility fracture completed the OPAQ-PF and global items at baseline, 2 weeks (no recent fracture), and 12 weeks (recent fracture) post-baseline. Results differed between the two methods. Recent fracture patients reported more improvement while patients without recent fracture reported more stability on ratings of change than ratings of concept. However, correlations with OPAQ-PF score change were stronger for ratings of concept than ratings of change (both groups). Effect sizes for OPAQ-PF score change increased consistently with level of change in ratings of concept but inconsistently with ratings of change, with the mean AUC for prediction of a one-point change being 0.72 vs. 0.56. This study provides initial empirical support for methodological and regulatory recommendations to use patient global ratings of concept rather than ratings of change when interpreting change captured by PRO instruments in studies evaluating treatment effects. These findings warrant being confirmed in a purpose-designed larger scale analysis.

Effects of changing speed on knee and ankle joint load during walking and running.

PubMed

de David, Ana Cristina; Carpes, Felipe Pivetta; Stefanyshyn, Darren

2015-01-01

Joint moments can be used as an indicator of joint loading and have potential application for sports performance and injury prevention. The effects of changing walking and running speeds on joint moments for the different planes of motion still are debatable. Here, we compared knee and ankle moments during walking and running at different speeds. Data were collected from 11 recreational male runners to determine knee and ankle joint moments during different conditions. Conditions include walking at a comfortable speed (self-selected pacing), fast walking (fastest speed possible), slow running (speed corresponding to 30% slower than running) and running (at 4 m · s(-1) ± 10%). A different joint moment pattern was observed between walking and running. We observed a general increase in joint load for sagittal and frontal planes as speed increased, while the effects of speed were not clear in the transverse plane moments. Although differences tend to be more pronounced when gait changed from walking to running, the peak moments, in general, increased when speed increased from comfortable walking to fast walking and from slow running to running mainly in the sagittal and frontal planes. Knee flexion moment was higher in walking than in running due to larger knee extension. Results suggest caution when recommending walking over running in an attempt to reduce knee joint loading. The different effects of speed increments during walking and running should be considered with regard to the prevention of injuries and for rehabilitation purposes.

Global Education and Local School Change.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Otero, George

1983-01-01

Change strategies that focus on improving local schools' abilities to manage change are described, and examples of how the strategies can be applied to help the schools prepare students for life in a global society are furnished. Specific strategies are based on the work of Las Palomas de Taos, an agency promoting change in the Southwest. (PP)

GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH NEWS #24: PUBLICATION OF FY2001 EDITION OF "OUR CHANGING PLANET"

EPA Science Inventory

The EPA Global Change Research Program is pleased to inform you of the publication of the new Our Changing Planet: The FY2001 U.S. Global Change Research Program. This annual report to the Congress was prepared under the auspices of the President's National Science and Technolog...

Global Climate Change. Selected Annotated Bibliography. Second Edition.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jones, Douglas E.

This annotated bibliography on global climate change contains 27 articles designed to expand the breadth and depth of information presented in the Global Change Information Packet. Most articles were chosen from journals likely to be available in most medium-sized public or college libraries. The articles cover a variety of topics related to…

Balancing Change and Tradition in Global Education Reform

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rotberg, Iris C., Ed.

2004-01-01

In Balancing Change and Tradition in Global Education Reform, Rotberg brings together examples of current education reforms in sixteen countries, written by "insiders". This book goes beyond myths and stereotypes and describes the difficult trade-offs countries make as they attempt to implement reforms in the context of societal and global change.…

Science priorities for the human dimensions of global change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1994-01-01

The topics covered include the following: defining research needs; understanding land use change; improving policy analysis -- research on the decision-making process; designing policy instruments and institutions to address energy-related environmental problems; assessing impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation to global changes; and understanding population dynamics and global change.

Impacts of climate change on the global forest sector

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perez-Garcia, J.; Joyce, L.A.; McGuire, A.D.; Xiao, X.

2002-01-01

The path and magnitude of future anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide will likely influence changes in climate that may impact the global forest sector. These responses in the global forest sector may have implications for international efforts to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. This study takes a step toward including the role of global forest sector in integrated assessments of the global carbon cycle by linking global models of climate dynamics, ecosystem processes and forest economics to assess the potential responses of the global forest sector to different levels of greenhouse gas emissions. We utilize three climate scenarios and two economic scenarios to represent a range of greenhouse gas emissions and economic behavior. At the end of the analysis period (2040), the potential responses in regional forest growing stock simulated by the global ecosystem model range from decreases and increases for the low emissions climate scenario to increases in all regions for the high emissions climate scenario. The changes in vegetation are used to adjust timber supply in the softwood and hardwood sectors of the economic model. In general, the global changes in welfare are positive, but small across all scenarios. At the regional level, the changes in welfare can be large and either negative or positive. Markets and trade in forest products play important roles in whether a region realizes any gains associated with climate change. In general, regions with the lowest wood fiber production cost are able to expand harvests. Trade in forest products leads to lower prices elsewhere. The low-cost regions expand market shares and force higher-cost regions to decrease their harvests. Trade produces different economic gains and losses across the globe even though, globally, economic welfare increases. The results of this study indicate that assumptions within alternative climate scenarios and about trade in forest products are important factors

Cloud evaluation using satellite simulators and cloud changes for global nonhydrostatic simulations with NICAM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Satoh, M.; Noda, A. T.; Kodama, C.; Yamada, Y.; Hashino, T.

2012-12-01

Global cloud distributions and properties simulated by the global nonhydrostatic model, NICAM (Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model), are evaluated and their future changes are discussed. First, we evaluated the simulated cloud properties produced by a case study of the 3.5km mesh experiment of NICAM using the satellite simulator package (the Joint-simulator) with cloud microphysics oriented approach (Hashino et al. 2012). Then, we analyzed future cloud changes using various sets of simulations under the present and the future global warming conditions. The results show that the zonal averaged ice water path (IWP) generally decreases or marginally unchanged in the tropics, while IWP in the extra-tropics increases. The upper cloud fraction increases both in the tropics and in the extra-tropics in general. We further analyzed contributions of cloud systems such as cloud clusters, tropical cyclones (TCs), and storm-tracks to these changes. Probability distribution of the larger cloud clusters decreases, while that of the smaller ones increases, consistent with the decrease in the number of tropical cyclones in the future climate. Average liquid water path (LWP) and IWP associated with each tropical cyclone are diagnosed, and it is found that both the associated LWP and IWP increase under the warmer condition. Even though, since the number of the intensive cloud systems decrease, the average IWP decreases. It should be remarked that the change in TC tracks largely contribute to the change in the horizontal distribution of clouds. The NICAM simulations also show that the storm-tracks shift poleward, and the storms become less frequent and stronger in the extra-tropics, similar to the results of other general circulation models. Both LWP and IWP associated with the storms also increase in the warmer climate in the NICAM simulations. This results in increase in the upper clouds under the warmer climate condition, as described by Miura et al. (2005). References

Changes in coronal alignment of the ankle joint after high tibial osteotomy.

PubMed

Choi, Gi Won; Yang, Jae Hyuk; Park, Jung Ho; Yun, Ho Hyun; Lee, Yong In; Chae, Jin Eon; Yoon, Jung Ro

2017-03-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate changes in coronal alignment of the ankle joint after HTO. Our hypothesis was that ankle joint orientation may become more parallel or less parallel to the ground after HTO, and this change may affect ankle symptoms. Eighty-six knees were retrospectively analysed after HTO for varus osteoarthritis. Preoperative and follow-up whole-leg radiographs were taken. The hip-knee-ankle (HKA) angle and medial proximal tibial angle (MPTA) were measured to evaluate coronal alignment of the knee. Tibial plafond inclination (TPI), talar inclination (TI), talar tilt (TT), and lateral distal tibial angle (LDTA) were measured to evaluate coronal alignment of the ankle. Patients were divided into two groups: those who exhibited a decrease in the absolute value of TPI and TI after HTO (group A) and those who exhibited an increase in the absolute value of TPI or TI after HTO (group B). Clinical outcomes of the knee and ankle were evaluated pre- and postoperatively. Mean TPI and TI changed from 6.9° ± 3.6° and 8.0° ± 3.8° to 2.8° ± 3.1° and 3.9° ± 3.0° in group A (P < 0.001 for both) and from -1.3° ± 3.7° and 0.6° ± 4.5° to -6.0° ± 4.2° and -4.6° ± 5.9° in group B (P = 0.018 for both). VAS for ankle pain did not change significantly after HTO (n.s.) in group A, whereas those of group B increased significantly after HTO (P = 0.014). Ankle joint orientation becomes more parallel or less parallel to the ground after HTO. Smaller preoperative HKA and LDTA result in a more valgus ankle joint orientation after HTO. Ankle symptoms were affected by coronal alignment changes of the ankle after HTO. III.

Knee joint changes in patients with neglected developmental hip dysplasia: a prospective case-control study.

PubMed

Li, Qiwei; Kadhim, Muayad; Zhang, Lijun; Cheng, Xiangjun; Zhao, Qun; Li, Lianyong

2014-12-01

Few reports are available describing knee changes in neglected developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH). The purpose of this study was to assess the radiographic morphology of knee joints in adults with neglected DDH. Thirty-seven patients (35 females and two males) with neglected DDH were prospectively recruited with an average age of 32.6 years. Twenty-three patients had unilateral and 14 patients had bilateral neglected DDH. Thirty-seven healthy individuals were recruited to form a matched control group. Three groups of knee joints were examined: affected knees (on the same side of the neglected DDH), unaffected knees (contralateral to the neglected DDH in patients with unilateral involvement), and control knees. A series of radiographic parameters of the knee joint were measured in the coronal and sagittal plane, and they were compared between patients and normal controls. In the coronal plane, the affected knees had increased valgus angulation related to increased height of the medial femoral condyle, decreased height of the lateral femoral condyle and decreased lateral distal femoral angle compared to control knees. In the sagittal plane, both distal femoral and proximal tibial joints of the affected knees developed a decrease in posterior angles. Additionally, the unaffected knees also developed radiographic changes compared to control knees. Patients with neglected DDH may develop changes in both knee joints. These changes should be considered during surgery to the hip, femur and knee to prevent potential complications. Level 2. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Biomass burning a driver for global change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Levine, J.S.; Cofer, W.R. III; Cahoon, D.R. Jr.

1995-03-01

Recent research has identified another biospheric process that has instantaneous and longer term effects on the production of atmospheric gases: biomass burning. Biomass burning includes the burning of the world`s vegetation-forests, savannas. and agricultural lands, to clear the land and change its use. Only in the past decade have researchers realized the important contributions of biomass burning to the global budgets of many radiatively and chemically active gases - carbon dioxide, methane, nitric oxide, tropospheric ozone, methyl chloride - and elemental carbon particulates. International field experiments and satellite data are yielding a clearer understanding of this important global source ofmore » atmospheric gases and particulates. It is seen that in addition to being a significant instantaneous global source of atmospheric gases and particulates, burning enhances the biogenic emissions of nitric oxide and nitrous oxide from the world`s soils. Biomass burning affects the reflectivity and emissivity of the Earth`s surface as well as the hydrological cycle by changing rates of land evaporation and water runoff. For these reasons, it appears that biomass burning is a significant driver of global change. 20 refs., 4 figs., 2 tabs.« less

Global meaning in people with stroke: Content and changes

PubMed Central

Littooij, Elsbeth; Dekker, Joost; Vloothuis, Judith; Leget, Carlo JW; Widdershoven, Guy AM

2016-01-01

After a traumatic event like a stroke, people need to find meaning and control again. This study enhances knowledge on one of the driving principles behind meaning-making processes: global meaning. Global meaning refers to individuals’ general orienting systems, comprising fundamental beliefs and life goals. Little is known about global meaning in people with stroke and whether global meaning changes after stroke. In this qualitative study, five aspects of global meaning were found: core values, relationships, worldview, identity and inner posture. Continuity in all aspects was reported, but worldview, identity and inner posture were also subjected to change. PMID:28815054

Global meaning in people with stroke: Content and changes.

PubMed

Littooij, Elsbeth; Dekker, Joost; Vloothuis, Judith; Leget, Carlo Jw; Widdershoven, Guy Am

2016-07-01

After a traumatic event like a stroke, people need to find meaning and control again. This study enhances knowledge on one of the driving principles behind meaning-making processes: global meaning. Global meaning refers to individuals' general orienting systems, comprising fundamental beliefs and life goals. Little is known about global meaning in people with stroke and whether global meaning changes after stroke. In this qualitative study, five aspects of global meaning were found: core values, relationships, worldview, identity and inner posture. Continuity in all aspects was reported, but worldview, identity and inner posture were also subjected to change.

Global climate change and vector-borne diseases

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ginsberg, H.S.

2002-01-01

Global warming will have different effects on different diseases because of the complex and idiosynchratic interactions between vectors, hosts, and pathogens that influence transmission dynamics of each pathogen. Human activities, including urbanization, rapid global travel, and vector management, have profound effects on disease transmission that can operate on more rapid time scales than does global climate change. The general concern about global warming encouraging the spread of tropical diseases is legitimate, but the effects vary among diseases, and the ecological implications are difficult to predict.

Mission to Planet Earth: A program to understand global environmental change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1994-01-01

A description of Mission to Planet Earth, a program to understand global environmental change, is presented. Topics discussed include: changes in the environment; global warming; ozone depletion; deforestation; and NASA's role in global change research.

Joint distraction attenuates osteoarthritis by reducing secondary inflammation, cartilage degeneration and subchondral bone aberrant change.

PubMed

Chen, Y; Sun, Y; Pan, X; Ho, K; Li, G

2015-10-01

Osteoarthritis (OA) is a progressive joint disorder. To date, there is not effective medical therapy. Joint distraction has given us hope for slowing down the OA progression. In this study, we investigated the benefits of joint distraction in OA rat model and the probable underlying mechanisms. OA was induced in the right knee joint of rats through anterior cruciate ligament transaction (ACLT) plus medial meniscus resection. The animals were randomized into three groups: two groups were treated with an external fixator for a subsequent 3 weeks, one with and one without joint distraction; and one group without external fixator as OA control. Serum interleukin-1β level was evaluated by ELISA; cartilage quality was assessed by histology examinations (gross appearance, Safranin-O/Fast green stain) and immunohistochemistry examinations (MMP13, Col X); subchondral bone aberrant changes was analyzed by micro-CT and immunohistochemistry (Nestin, Osterix) examinations. Characters of OA were present in the OA group, contrary to in general less severe damage after distraction treatment: firstly, IL-1β level was significantly decreased; secondly, cartilage degeneration was attenuated with lower histologic damage scores and the lower percentage of MMP13 or Col X positive chondrocytes; finally, subchondral bone abnormal change was attenuated, with reduced bone mineral density (BMD) and bone volume/total tissue volume (BV/TV) and the number of Nestin or Osterix positive cells in the subchondral bone. In the present study, we demonstrated that joint distraction reduced the level of secondary inflammation, cartilage degeneration and subchondral bone aberrant change, joint distraction may be a strategy for slowing OA progression. Copyright © 2015 Osteoarthritis Research Society International. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adaptation, extinction and global change

PubMed Central

Bell, Graham; Collins, Sinéad

2008-01-01

We discuss three interlinked issues: the natural pace of environmental change and adaptation, the likelihood that a population will adapt to a potentially lethal change, and adaptation to elevated CO2, the prime mover of global change. Environmental variability is governed by power laws showing that ln difference in conditions increases with ln elapsed time at a rate of 0.3–0.4. This leads to strong but fluctuating selection in many natural populations. The effect of repeated adverse change on mean fitness depends on its frequency rather than its severity. If the depression of mean fitness leads to population decline, however, severe stress may cause extinction. Evolutionary rescue from extinction requires abundant genetic variation or a high mutation supply rate, and thus a large population size. Although natural populations can sustain quite intense selection, they often fail to adapt to anthropogenic stresses such as pollution and acidification and instead become extinct. Experimental selection lines of algae show no specific adaptation to elevated CO2, but instead lose their carbon-concentrating mechanism through mutational degradation. This is likely to reduce the effectiveness of the oceanic carbon pump. Elevated CO2 is also likely to lead to changes in phytoplankton community composition, although it is not yet clear what these will be. We emphasize the importance of experimental evolution in understanding and predicting the biological response to global change. This will be one of the main tasks of evolutionary biologists in the coming decade. PMID:25567487

Environmental disruption of circadian rhythm predisposes mice to osteoarthritis-like changes in knee joint.

PubMed

Kc, Ranjan; Li, Xin; Voigt, Robin M; Ellman, Michael B; Summa, Keith C; Vitaterna, Martha Hotz; Keshavarizian, Ali; Turek, Fred W; Meng, Qing-Jun; Stein, Gary S; van Wijnen, Andre J; Chen, Di; Forsyth, Christopher B; Im, Hee-Jeong

2015-09-01

Circadian rhythm dysfunction is linked to many diseases, yet pathophysiological roles in articular cartilage homeostasis and degenerative joint disease including osteoarthritis (OA) remains to be investigated in vivo. Here, we tested whether environmental or genetic disruption of circadian homeostasis predisposes to OA-like pathological changes. Male mice were examined for circadian locomotor activity upon changes in the light:dark (LD) cycle or genetic disruption of circadian rhythms. Wild-type (WT) mice were maintained on a constant 12 h:12 h LD cycle (12:12 LD) or exposed to weekly 12 h phase shifts. Alternatively, male circadian mutant mice (Clock(Δ19) or Csnk1e(tau) mutants) were compared with age-matched WT littermates that were maintained on a constant 12:12 LD cycle. Disruption of circadian rhythms promoted osteoarthritic changes by suppressing proteoglycan accumulation, upregulating matrix-degrading enzymes and downregulating anabolic mediators in the mouse knee joint. Mechanistically, these effects involved activation of the PKCδ-ERK-RUNX2/NFκB and β-catenin signaling pathways, stimulation of MMP-13 and ADAMTS-5, as well as suppression of the anabolic mediators SOX9 and TIMP-3 in articular chondrocytes of phase-shifted mice. Genetic disruption of circadian homeostasis does not predispose to OA-like pathological changes in joints. Our results, for the first time, provide compelling in vivo evidence that environmental disruption of circadian rhythms is a risk factor for the development of OA-like pathological changes in the mouse knee joint. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Inadvertent Weather Modification in Urban Areas: Lessons for Global Climate Change.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Changnon, Stanley A.

1992-05-01

Large metropolitan areas in North America, home to 65% of the nation's population, have created major changes in their climates over the past 150 years. The rate and amount of the urban climate change approximate those being predicted globally using climate models. Knowledge of urban weather and climate modification holds lessons for the global climate change issue. First, adjustments to urban climate changes can provide guidance for adjusting to global change. A second lesson relates to the difficulty but underscores the necessity of providing scientifically credible proof of change within the noise of natural climatic variability. The evolution of understanding about how urban conditions influence weather reveals several unexpected outcomes, particularly relating to precipitation changes. These suggest that similar future surprises can be expected in a changed global climate, a third lesson. In-depth studies of how urban climate changes affected the hydrologic cycle, the regional economy, and human activities were difficult because of data problems, lack of impact methodology, and necessity for multi disciplinary investigations. Similar impact studies for global climate change will require diverse scientific talents and funding commitments adequate to measure the complexity of impacts and human adjustments. Understanding the processes whereby urban areas and other human activities have altered the atmosphere and changed clouds and precipitation regionally appears highly relevant to the global climate-change issue. Scientific and governmental policy development needs to recognize an old axiom that became evident in the studies of inadvertent urban and regional climate change and their behavioral implications: Think globally but act locally. Global climate change is an international issue, and the atmosphere must be treated globally. But the impacts and the will to act and adjust will occur regionally.

Changing Conceptions of Globalization: Changing Conceptions of Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fitzsimons, Patrick

2000-01-01

Examines changing conceptions of globalization in education, highlighting new electronic information technologies that, rather than promoting homogeneity, are producing a stimulus for a politics of difference. Cyborgs and cyberspace are emerging as discourses of disunity and difference. The essay recommends a form of critical localism to challenge…

Impact of Geological Changes on Regional and Global Economies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tatiana, Skufina; Peter, Skuf'in; Vera, Samarina; Taisiya, Shatalova; Baranov, Sergey

2017-04-01

Periods of geological changes such as super continent cycle (300-500 million years), Wilson's cycles (300-900 million years), magmatic-tectonic cycle (150-200 million years), and cycles with smaller periods (22, 100, 1000 years) lead to a basic contradiction preventing forming methodology of the study of impact of geological changes on the global and regional economies. The reason of this contradiction is the differences of theoretical and methodological aspects of the Earth science and economics such as different time scales and accuracy of geological changes. At the present the geological models cannot provide accurate estimation of time and place where geological changes (strong earthquakes, volcanos) are expected. Places of feature (not next) catastrophic events are the only thing we have known. Thus, it is impossible to use the periodicity to estimate both geological changes and their consequences. Taking into accounts these factors we suggested a collection of concepts for estimating impact of possible geological changes on regional and global economies. We illustrated our approach by example of estimating impact of Tohoku earthquake and tsunami of March 2011 on regional and global economies. Based on this example we concluded that globalization processes increase an impact of geological changes on regional and global levels. The research is supported by Russian Foundation for Basic Research (Projects No. 16-06-00056, 16-32-00019, 16-05-00263A).

Dryland photoautotrophic soil surface communities endangered by global change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rodriguez-Caballero, Emilio; Belnap, Jayne; Büdel, Burkhard; Crutzen, Paul J.; Andreae, Meinrat O.; Pöschl, Ulrich; Weber, Bettina

2018-01-01

Photoautotrophic surface communities forming biological soil crusts (biocrusts) are crucial for soil stability as well as water, nutrient and trace gas cycling at regional and global scales. Quantitative information on their global coverage and the environmental factors driving their distribution patterns, however, are not readily available. We use observations and environmental modelling to estimate the global distribution of biocrusts and their response to global change using future projected scenarios. We find that biocrusts currently covering approximately 12% of Earth’s terrestrial surface will decrease by about 25–40% within 65 years due to anthropogenically caused climate change and land-use intensification, responding far more drastically than vascular plants. Our results illustrate that current biocrust occurrence is mainly driven by a combination of precipitation, temperature and land management, and future changes are expected to be affected by land-use and climate change in similar proportion. The predicted loss of biocrusts may substantially reduce the microbial contribution to nitrogen cycling and enhance the emissions of soil dust, which affects the functioning of ecosystems as well as human health and should be considered in the modelling, mitigation and management of global change.

Dryland photoautotrophic soil surface communities endangered by global change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodriguez-Caballero, Emilio; Belnap, Jayne; Büdel, Burkhard; Crutzen, Paul J.; Andreae, Meinrat O.; Pöschl, Ulrich; Weber, Bettina

2018-03-01

Photoautotrophic surface communities forming biological soil crusts (biocrusts) are crucial for soil stability as well as water, nutrient and trace gas cycling at regional and global scales. Quantitative information on their global coverage and the environmental factors driving their distribution patterns, however, are not readily available. We use observations and environmental modelling to estimate the global distribution of biocrusts and their response to global change using future projected scenarios. We find that biocrusts currently covering approximately 12% of Earth's terrestrial surface will decrease by about 25-40% within 65 years due to anthropogenically caused climate change and land-use intensification, responding far more drastically than vascular plants. Our results illustrate that current biocrust occurrence is mainly driven by a combination of precipitation, temperature and land management, and future changes are expected to be affected by land-use and climate change in similar proportion. The predicted loss of biocrusts may substantially reduce the microbial contribution to nitrogen cycling and enhance the emissions of soil dust, which affects the functioning of ecosystems as well as human health and should be considered in the modelling, mitigation and management of global change.

Changes in Concurrent Precipitation and Temperature Extremes

DOE PAGES

Hao, Zengchao; AghaKouchak, Amir; Phillips, Thomas J.

2013-08-01

While numerous studies have addressed changes in climate extremes, analyses of concurrence of climate extremes are scarce, and climate change effects on joint extremes are rarely considered. This study assesses the occurrence of joint (concurrent) monthly continental precipitation and temperature extremes in Climate Research Unit (CRU) and University of Delaware (UD) observations, and in 13 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate simulations. Moreover, the joint occurrences of precipitation and temperature extremes simulated by CMIP5 climate models are compared with those derived from the CRU and UD observations for warm/wet, warm/dry, cold/wet, and cold/dry combinations of joint extremes.more » The number of occurrences of these four combinations during the second half of the 20th century (1951–2004) is assessed on a common global grid. CRU and UD observations show substantial increases in the occurrence of joint warm/dry and warm/wet combinations for the period 1978–2004 relative to 1951–1977. The results show that with respect to the sign of change in the concurrent extremes, the CMIP5 climate model simulations are in reasonable overall agreement with observations. The results reveal notable discrepancies between regional patterns and the magnitude of change in individual climate model simulations relative to the observations of precipitation and temperature.« less

Exploring Global Change In Place-Based Case Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moosavi, S. C.

2011-12-01

The complexity of global climate change makes the subject challenging for the average student, particularly given the nuanced feedbacks and exceptions to the general "warming" or "drying" trend that may be experienced at the local and regional level at which most people experience geologic processes. Geoscience educators can reduce these barriers and draw in student learners by adopting a place-based approach to teaching and researching geologic principles that relate to global change. Assisting students in recognizing and understanding the geologic environment in which they live and study has the side benefit of making the potential effect of climate change tangible. This presentation will review several approaches for using place-based case studies to explore global climate change issues in large lecture, small seminar, field research and service learning environments. The special place project used in large introductory physical geology courses requires each student to select a place familiar and unique to them for an in depth study of the common course content as the semester progresses. Students are specifically tasked with identifying how their site came to be, the geologic processes that act upon it today, how the site may have been different during the last glacial advance and how global climate change (specifically warming of 3OC over 50 years) might impact the site. The concept that change has occurred at the student's site in the past, even far from glacial environments, opens students to the scale of potential anthropogenic climate change. A freshman seminar Global Warming & Climate Change - Service in Preparation for Climate Change: The Second Battle of New Orleans focused on the environmental threats to New Orleans and southeastern Louisiana resulting from regional land use decisions in the centuries before Hurricane Katrina, and the threat that global change relating to sea level rise, acceleration of the hydrologic cycle and intensification of

COMMUNICATING GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE: INVESTIGATING MESSAGE STRATEGIES FOR COMMUNICATING THE IMPACT OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE.

EPA Science Inventory

The research program is designed to generate findings that provide specific guidance to science communicators and government officials on how to best communicate knowledge about global climate change and other environmental issues to diverse lay audiences. Beyond providing gui...

State Roles in the Global Climate Change Issue.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Changnon, Stanley A.

1995-02-01

Events in 1988 helped focus the attention of several states on the global climate change issue. Consequently, the National Governors' Association conducted an assessment in 1989 and recommended various actions. By 1994, 22 states have enacted laws or regulations and/or established research programs addressing climate change. Most of these "no regrets" actions are set up to conserve energy or improve energy efficiency and also to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Illinois has adopted an even broader program by 1) establishing a Global Climate Change Office to foster research and provide information and 2) forming a task force to address a wide array of issues including state input to federal policies such as the Clinton administration's 1993 Climate Change Action Plan and to the research dimensions of the U.S. Global Climate Change Research Program. The Illinois program calls for increased attention to studies of regional impacts, including integrated assessments, and to research addressing means to adapt to future climate change. These various state efforts to date help show the direction of policy development and should be useful to those grappling with these issues.

A Tri-Country Marketing Project--Preparing Students for the Realities of a Global Marketplace

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Freeman, Ina; Knight, Peter; Butt, Irfan

2011-01-01

With rapidly increasing globalization, business students are required to understand complex global markets and adapt to the rapid changes in the global landscape. This paper discusses a project where students from International Marketing courses in Pakistan, the United States, and France used an interactive platform as a base to jointly explore…

Single-joint outcome measures: preliminary validation of patient-reported outcomes and physical examination.

PubMed

Heald, Alison E; Fudman, Edward J; Anklesaria, Pervin; Mease, Philip J

2010-05-01

To assess the validity, responsiveness, and reliability of single-joint outcome measures for determining target joint (TJ) response in patients with inflammatory arthritis. Patient-reported outcomes (PRO), consisting of responses to single questions about TJ global status on a 100-mm visual analog scale (VAS; TJ global score), function on a 100-mm VAS (TJ function score), and pain on a 5-point Likert scale (TJ pain score) were piloted in 66 inflammatory arthritis subjects in a phase 1/2 clinical study of an intraarticular gene transfer agent and compared to physical examination measures (TJ swelling, TJ tenderness) and validated function questionnaires (Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand scale, Rheumatoid Arthritis Outcome Score, and the Health Assessment Questionnaire). Construct validity was assessed by evaluating the correlation between the single-joint outcome measures and validated function questionnaires using Spearman's rank correlation. Responsiveness or sensitivity to change was assessed through calculating effect size and standardized response means (SRM). Reliability of physical examination measures was assessed by determining interobserver agreement. The single-joint PRO were highly correlated with each other and correlated well with validated functional measures. The TJ global score exhibited modest effect size and modest SRM that correlated well with the patient's assessment of response on a 100-mm VAS. Physical examination measures exhibited high interrater reliability, but correlated less well with validated functional measures and the patient's assessment of response. Single-joint PRO, particularly the TJ global score, are simple to administer and demonstrate construct validity and responsiveness in patients with inflammatory arthritis. (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT00126724).

Is This Global Warming? Communicating the Intangibles of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warner, L.; Henson, R.

2004-05-01

Unlike weather, which is immediate, tangible, and relevant on a daily basis, climate change is long-term, slow to evolve, and often difficult to relate to the public's daily concerns. By explaining global-change research to wide and diverse audiences through a variety of vehicles, including publications, exhibits, Web sites, and television B-roll, UCAR has gained experience and perspective on the challenges involved. This talk will explore some of the lessons learned and some of the key difficulties that face global-change communicators, including: --The lack of definitive findings on regional effects of global change -- The long time frame in which global change plays out, versus the short attention span of media, the public, and policy makers --The use of weather events as news pegs (they pique interest, but they may not be good exemplars of global change and are difficult to relate directly to changes in greenhouse-gas emissions) --The perils of the traditional journalistic technique of point-counterpoint in discussing climate change --The presence of strong personal/political convictions among various interest groups and how these affect the message(s) conveyed

Aspen Global Change Institute Summer Science Sessions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Katzenberger, John; Kaye, Jack A

2006-10-01

The Aspen Global Change Institute (AGCI) successfully organized and convened six interdisciplinary meetings over the course of award NNG04GA21G. The topics of the meetings were consistent with a range of issues, goals and objectives as described within the NASA Earth Science Enterprise Strategic Plan and more broadly by the US Global Change Research Program/Our Changing Planet, the more recent Climate Change Program Strategic Plan and the NSF Pathways report. The meetings were chaired by two or more leaders from within the disciplinary focus of each session. 222 scholars for a total of 1097 participants-days were convened under the auspices ofmore » this award. The overall goal of each AGCI session is to further the understanding of Earth system science and global environmental change through interdisciplinary dialog. The format and structure of the meetings allows for presentation by each participant, in-depth discussion by the whole group, and smaller working group and synthesis activities. The size of the group is important in terms of the group dynamics and interaction, and the ability for each participant's work to be adequately presented and discussed within the duration of the meeting, while still allowing time for synthesis« less

Respiratory pattern changes during costovertebral joint movement.

PubMed

Shannon, R

1980-05-01

Experiments were conducted to determine if costovertebral joint manipulation (CVJM) could influence the respiratory pattern. Phrenic efferent activity (PA) was monitored in dogs that were anesthetized with Dial-urethane, vagotomized, paralyzed, and artificially ventilated. Ribs 6-10 (bilaterally) were cut and separated from ribs 5-11. Branches of thoracic nerves 5-11 were cut, leaving only the joint nerve supply intact. Manual joint movement in an inspiratory or expiratory direction had an inhibitory effect on PA. Sustained displacement of the ribs could inhibit PA for a duration equal to numerous respiratory cycles. CVJM in synchrony with PA resulted in an increased respiratory rate. The inspiratory inhibitory effect of joint receptor stimulation was elicited with manual chest compression in vagotomized spontaneously breathing dogs, but not with artificial lung inflation or deflation. It is concluded that the effect of CVJM on the respiratory pattern is due to stimulation of joint mechanoreceptors, and that they exert their influence in part via the medullary-pontine rhythm generator.

Interfacing remote sensing and geographic information systems for global environmental change research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Jae K.; Randolph, J. C.; Lulla, Kamlesh P.; Helfert, Michael R.

1993-01-01

Because changes in the Earth's environment have become major global issues, continuous, longterm scientific information is required to assess global problems such as deforestation, desertification, greenhouse effects and climate variations. Global change studies require understanding of interactions of complex processes regulating the Earth system. Space-based Earth observation is an essential element in global change research for documenting changes in Earth environment. It provides synoptic data for conceptual predictive modeling of future environmental change. This paper provides a brief overview of remote sensing technology from the perspective of global change research.

Linking the Mediterranean regional and the global climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lionello, Piero; Scarascia, Luca

2017-04-01

This contribution analyzes 22 CMIP5 global climate projections to show how is the regional climate change in the Mediterranean related to the global climate change. The aim is to use these recent results to revisit evidences suggesting that the Mediterranean region is a climate change hot spot. Results show that future increase of temperature in the Mediterranean region has a strong seasonal connotation, with summer warming at a pace 40% larger than the global mean. This future trend is consistent with the global reduction of the meridional temperature gradient that is produced by climate change. However spatial distribution of changes shows a strong a sub-regional modulation depending of the land-sea contrast, the role of soil moisture feedback and changes of large scale atmospheric circulation leading to increased subsidence conditions. Projections show that precipitation decrease will affect most of the region, but with a strong difference between southern and northern areas, where CMIP5 projections suggest a 7% and 3% decrease of annual precipitation for each degree of global warming, respectively. For both Mediterranean temperature and precipitation, the dependence is substantially linear in the range up to 40C of global warming. Interannual variability and intermodel differences are a substantial source of uncertainty for precipitation (while there is a robust consensus for temperature changes). Therefore, future precipitation changes are still a controversial issue, in terms of intensity and precise location of the transition belt that separates the decrease of precipitation over the MR from areas in central and northern Europe, where precipitation is expected to increase. On this respect, though the overall drying trend appears consolidated in the scientific literature, its precise evaluation remains to some extent controversial.

Decadal Changes in Global Ocean Annual Primary Production

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gregg, Watson; Conkright, Margarita E.; Behrenfeld, Michael J.; Ginoux, Paul; Casey, Nancy W.; Koblinsky, Chester J. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor (SeaWiFS) has produced the first multi-year time series of global ocean chlorophyll observations since the demise of the Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS) in 1986. Global observations from 1997-present from SeaWiFS combined with observations from 1979-1986 from the CZCS should in principle provide an opportunity to observe decadal changes in global ocean annual primary production, since chlorophyll is the primary driver for estimates of primary production. However, incompatibilities between algorithms have so far precluded quantitative analysis. We have developed and applied compatible processing methods for the CZCS, using modern advances in atmospheric correction and consistent bio-optical algorithms to advance the CZCS archive to comparable quality with SeaWiFS. We applied blending methodologies, where in situ data observations are incorporated into the CZCS and SeaWiFS data records, to provide improvement of the residuals. These re-analyzed, blended data records provide maximum compatibility and permit, for the first time, a quantitative analysis of the changes in global ocean primary production in the early-to-mid 1980's and the present, using synoptic satellite observations. An intercomparison of the global and regional primary production from these blended satellite observations is important to understand global climate change and the effects on ocean biota. Photosynthesis by chlorophyll-containing phytoplankton is responsible for biotic uptake of carbon in the oceans and potentially ultimately from the atmosphere. Global ocean annual primary decreased from the CZCS record to SeaWiFS, by nearly 6% from the early 1980s to the present. Annual primary production in the high latitudes was responsible for most of the decadal change. Conversely, primary production in the low latitudes generally increased, with the exception of the tropical Pacific. The differences and similarities of the two data records provide evidence

Global Change and Human Vulnerability to Vector-Borne Diseases

PubMed Central

Sutherst, Robert W.

2004-01-01

Global change includes climate change and climate variability, land use, water storage and irrigation, human population growth and urbanization, trade and travel, and chemical pollution. Impacts on vector-borne diseases, including malaria, dengue fever, infections by other arboviruses, schistosomiasis, trypanosomiasis, onchocerciasis, and leishmaniasis are reviewed. While climate change is global in nature and poses unknown future risks to humans and natural ecosystems, other local changes are occurring more rapidly on a global scale and are having significant effects on vector-borne diseases. History is invaluable as a pointer to future risks, but direct extrapolation is no longer possible because the climate is changing. Researchers are therefore embracing computer simulation models and global change scenarios to explore the risks. Credible ranking of the extent to which different vector-borne diseases will be affected awaits a rigorous analysis. Adaptation to the changes is threatened by the ongoing loss of drugs and pesticides due to the selection of resistant strains of pathogens and vectors. The vulnerability of communities to the changes in impacts depends on their adaptive capacity, which requires both appropriate technology and responsive public health systems. The availability of resources in turn depends on social stability, economic wealth, and priority allocation of resources to public health. PMID:14726459

[Human joint capsule in osteoarthrosis (morpholocical changes) (author's transl)].

PubMed

Dettmer, N; Barz, B

1977-07-29

Morphological investigations of the joint capsules in osteoarthrotic-changed joints have given rise to doubts about the present theory of the causal aetiology of the osteoarthrosis. In every inspected and demonstrated illustration beside the partly normal capsules segments could be found every transition between mild regressive alterations and most massive proliferative changes of the conective tissue and the lining cell layer. It was extraordinary, that the strongly dilated vessels were filled with red blood cells. In another part of the same case was found a massive stricture caused by concentrically deposited substances, which were impregnated with collagenous fibers. Regeneration of the vessels frequently happened adjacent totally obstructed ones. Round-cell infiltrations, granulocytes or other indications of an inflammatory synovitis are found only in a few cases. The intracartilaginous enzymatic reactions, which have been much talked of and which were explained as characteristic of the osteoarthrosis cannot be the cause of the degradation of the cartilage, particularly, because of the normal cell count which is to be found in the synovial fluid. We can answer this problem, if we can prove that the substrates of the chondral metabolism themselves exert a direct or indirect influence on the interstitial connective tissue with induction of the powerful proliferation of the same tissue. The changes in the transit zone would be secondary and their effect on the lining cell layer would increase the progression of the arthrotic events.

Exploring Local Approaches to Communicating Global Climate Change Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stevermer, A. J.

2002-12-01

Expected future climate changes are often presented as a global problem, requiring a global solution. Although this statement is accurate, communicating climate change science and prospective solutions must begin at local levels, each with its own subset of complexities to be addressed. Scientific evaluation of local changes can be complicated by large variability occurring over small spatial scales; this variability hinders efforts both to analyze past local changes and to project future ones. The situation is further encumbered by challenges associated with scientific literacy in the U.S., as well as by pressing economic difficulties. For people facing real-life financial and other uncertainties, a projected ``1.4 to 5.8 degrees Celsius'' rise in global temperature is likely to remain only an abstract concept. Despite this lack of concreteness, recent surveys have found that most U.S. residents believe current global warming science, and an even greater number view the prospect of increased warming as at least a ``somewhat serious'' problem. People will often be able to speak of long-term climate changes in their area, whether observed changes in the amount of snow cover in winter, or in the duration of extreme heat periods in summer. This work will explore the benefits and difficulties of communicating climate change from a local, rather than global, perspective, and seek out possible strategies for making less abstract, more concrete, and most importantly, more understandable information available to the public.

Global meaning in people with spinal cord injury: Content and changes

PubMed Central

Littooij, Elsbeth; Widdershoven, Guy A.M.; Stolwijk-Swüste, Janneke M.; Doodeman, Suzan; Leget, Carlo J.W.; Dekker, Joost

2016-01-01

Background After spinal cord injury (SCI), people are confronted with abrupt discontinuity in almost all areas of life, leading to questions on how to live a meaningful life again. Global meaning refers to basic ideas and goals that guide people in giving meaning to their lives, in specific situations. Little is known about global meaning relating to SCI and whether global meaning changes after SCI. Purpose The purpose of this study was twofold: (i) to explore the content of global meaning of people with SCI, and (ii) to explore whether or not global meaning changes after SCI. Methods In-depth semi-structured interviews were conducted with 16 people with SCI. Interviews were analyzed according to the method of grounded theory. Results (i) Five aspects of global meaning were found: core values, relationships, worldview, identity and inner posture. (ii) Overall, little change in the content of global meaning was found after SCI; specific aspects of global meaning were foregrounded after SCI. Conclusion Five aspects of global meaning were found in people with SCI. Global meaning seems hardly subject to change. PMID:25615571

Global land-use change hidden behind nickel consumption.

PubMed

Nakajima, Kenichi; Nansai, Keisuke; Matsubae, Kazuyo; Tomita, Makoto; Takayanagi, Wataru; Nagasaka, Tetsuya

2017-05-15

Economic growth is associated with a rapid rise in the use of natural resources within the economy, and has potential environmental impacts at local and/or global scales. In today's globalized economy, each country has indirect flows supporting its economic activities, and natural resource consumption through supply chains influences environmental impacts far removed from the place of consumption. One way to control environmental impacts associated with consumption of natural resources is to identify the consumption of natural resources and the associated environmental impacts through the global supply chain. In this study, we used a global link input-output model (GLIO, a hybrid multiregional input-output model) to detect the linkages between national nickel consumption and mining-associated global land-use changes. We focused on nickel, whose global demand has risen rapidly in recent years, as a case study. The estimated area of land-use change around the world caused by nickel mining in 2005 was 1.9km 2 , and that induced by Japanese final demand for nickel was 0.38km 2 . Our modeling also revealed that the areas of greatest land-use change associated with nickel mining were concentrated in only a few countries and regions far removed from the place of consumption. For example, 57.7% of the world's land-use changes caused by nickel mining were concentrated in five countries in 2005: Australia, 13.7%; Russia, 12.9%; Indonesia, 12.5%; New Caledonia, 10.4%; and Colombia, 8.2%. The mining-associated land-use change induced by Japanese final demand accounted for 19.5% of the total area affected by land-use change caused by nickel mining. The top three countries accounted for 70.6% (Indonesia: 47.0%, New Caledonia: 16.0%, and Australia: 7.7%), and the top five accounted for 82.4% (the Philippines: 7.5%, and Canada: 4.3%, in addition to the top three countries and regions). Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Providing Global Change Information for Decision-Making: Capturing and Presenting Provenance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ma, Xiaogang; Fox, Peter; Tilmes, Curt; Jacobs, Katherine; Waple, Anne

2014-01-01

Global change information demands access to data sources and well-documented provenance to provide evidence needed to build confidence in scientific conclusions and, in specific applications, to ensure the information's suitability for use in decision-making. A new generation of Web technology, the Semantic Web, provides tools for that purpose. The topic of global change covers changes in the global environment (including alterations in climate, land productivity, oceans or other water resources, atmospheric composition and or chemistry, and ecological systems) that may alter the capacity of the Earth to sustain life and support human systems. Data and findings associated with global change research are of great public, government, and academic concern and are used in policy and decision-making, which makes the provenance of global change information especially important. In addition, since different types of decisions benefit from different types of information, understanding how to capture and present the provenance of global change information is becoming more of an imperative in adaptive planning.

Plant health and global change--some implications for landscape management.

PubMed

Pautasso, Marco; Dehnen-Schmutz, Katharina; Holdenrieder, Ottmar; Pietravalle, Stéphane; Salama, Nabeil; Jeger, Mike J; Lange, Eckart; Hehl-Lange, Sigrid

2010-11-01

Global change (climate change together with other worldwide anthropogenic processes such as increasing trade, air pollution and urbanization) will affect plant health at the genetic, individual, population and landscape level. Direct effects include ecosystem stress due to natural resources shortage or imbalance. Indirect effects include (i) an increased frequency of natural detrimental phenomena, (ii) an increased pressure due to already present pests and diseases, (iii) the introduction of new invasive species either as a result of an improved suitability of the climatic conditions or as a result of increased trade, and (iv) the human response to global change. In this review, we provide an overview of recent studies on terrestrial plant health in the presence of global change factors. We summarize the links between climate change and some key issues in plant health, including tree mortality, changes in wildfire regimes, biological invasions and the role of genetic diversity for ecosystem resilience. Prediction and management of global change effects are complicated by interactions between globalization, climate and invasive plants and/or pathogens. We summarize practical guidelines for landscape management and draw general conclusions from an expanding body of literature. © 2010 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2010 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

A joint global carbon inversion system using both CO2 and 13CO2 atmospheric concentration data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Jing M.; Mo, Gang; Deng, Feng

2017-03-01

Observations of 13CO2 at 73 sites compiled in the GLOBALVIEW database are used for an additional constraint in a global atmospheric inversion of the surface CO2 flux using CO2 observations at 210 sites (62 collocated with 13CO2 sites) for the 2002-2004 period for 39 land regions and 11 ocean regions. This constraint is implemented using prior CO2 fluxes estimated with a terrestrial ecosystem model and an ocean model. These models simulate 13CO2 discrimination rates of terrestrial photosynthesis and ocean-atmosphere diffusion processes. In both models, the 13CO2 disequilibrium between fluxes to and from the atmosphere is considered due to the historical change in atmospheric 13CO2 concentration. This joint inversion system using both13CO2 and CO2 observations is effectively a double deconvolution system with consideration of the spatial variations of isotopic discrimination and disequilibrium. Compared to the CO2-only inversion, this 13CO2 constraint on the inversion considerably reduces the total land carbon sink from 3.40 ± 0.84 to 2.53 ± 0.93 Pg C year-1 but increases the total oceanic carbon sink from 1.48 ± 0.40 to 2.36 ± 0.49 Pg C year-1. This constraint also changes the spatial distribution of the carbon sink. The largest sink increase occurs in the Amazon, while the largest source increases are in southern Africa, and Asia, where CO2 data are sparse. Through a case study, in which the spatial distribution of the annual 13CO2 discrimination rate over land is ignored by treating it as a constant at the global average of -14. 1 ‰, the spatial distribution of the inverted CO2 flux over land was found to be significantly modified (up to 15 % for some regions). The uncertainties in our disequilibrium flux estimation are 8.0 and 12.7 Pg C year-1 ‰ for land and ocean, respectively. These uncertainties induced the unpredictability of 0.47 and 0.54 Pg C year-1 in the inverted CO2 fluxes for land and ocean, respectively. Our joint inversion system is therefore

Patients' Perceptions of Joint Replacement Care in a Changing Healthcare System: A Qualitative Study

PubMed Central

Webster, Fiona; Bremner, Samantha; Katz, Joel; Watt-Watson, Judy; Kennedy, Deborah; Sawhney, Mona; McCartney, Colin

2014-01-01

Background: Ontario has introduced strategies over the past decade to reduce wait times and length of stay and improve access to physiotherapy for orthopaedic and other patients. The aim of this study is to explore patients' experiences of joint replacement care during a significant system change in their care setting. Methods: A secondary analysis was done on semi-structured qualitative interviews that were conducted in 2009 with 12 individuals who had undergone at least two hip or knee replacements five years apart at a specialized orthopaedic centre in Ontario, Canada. Interview transcripts were coded and then organized into themes. Results: Although the original study aimed to capture participants' experiences with changes in anaesthetic technique between their first and second joint replacements, the participants described several unrelated differences in the care they received during this period. For example, participants had difficulty obtaining a referral to an orthopaedic surgeon from their family physician. They also noted that the hospital stay and in-hospital physiotherapy they received were shorter after the second joint replacement surgery. They identified guidance from physiotherapists as an important component of their recovery, but sometimes had difficulty arranging physiotherapy after hospital discharge following their most recent surgery. Conclusions: The changes described between the first and second joint replacements provide the participants' perspective on the impact of policy changes on wait times, reduced lengths of hospital stay and physiotherapy access. The impact of these policy changes, often made in an attempt to improve access to care, had an unintended and detrimental effect on participants' perceptions and experiences of the quality of care provided. PMID:24726074

Provenance Representation in the Global Change Information System (GCIS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tilmes, Curt

2012-01-01

Global climate change is a topic that has become very controversial despite strong support within the scientific community. It is common for agencies releasing information about climate change to be served with Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests for everything that led to that conclusion. Capturing and presenting the provenance, linking to the research papers, data sets, models, analyses, observation instruments and satellites, etc. supporting key findings has the potential to mitigate skepticism in this domain. The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) is now coordinating the production of a National Climate Assessment (NCA) that presents our best understanding of global change. We are now developing a Global Change Information System (GCIS) that will present the content of that report and its provenance, including the scientific support for the findings of the assessment. We are using an approach that will present this information both through a human accessible web site as well as a machine readable interface for automated mining of the provenance graph. We plan to use the developing W3C PROV Data Model and Ontology for this system.

A global conservation system for climate-change adaptation.

PubMed

Hannah, Lee

2010-02-01

Climate change has created the need for a new strategic framework for conservation. This framework needs to include new protected areas that account for species range shifts and management that addresses large-scale change across international borders. Actions within the framework must be effective in international waters and across political frontiers and have the ability to accommodate large income and ability-to-pay discrepancies between countries. A global protected-area system responds to these needs. A fully implemented global system of protected areas will help in the transition to a new conservation paradigm robust to climate change and will ensure the integrity of the climate services provided by carbon sequestration from the world's natural habitats. The internationally coordinated response to climate change afforded by such a system could have significant cost savings relative to a system of climate adaptation that unfolds solely at a country level. Implementation of a global system is needed very soon because the effects of climate change on species and ecosystems are already well underway.

Tropical forests and global change: filling knowledge gaps.

PubMed

Zuidema, Pieter A; Baker, Patrick J; Groenendijk, Peter; Schippers, Peter; van der Sleen, Peter; Vlam, Mart; Sterck, Frank

2013-08-01

Tropical forests will experience major changes in environmental conditions this century. Understanding their responses to such changes is crucial to predicting global carbon cycling. Important knowledge gaps exist: the causes of recent changes in tropical forest dynamics remain unclear and the responses of entire tropical trees to environmental changes are poorly understood. In this Opinion article, we argue that filling these knowledge gaps requires a new research strategy, one that focuses on trees instead of leaves or communities, on long-term instead of short-term changes, and on understanding mechanisms instead of documenting changes. We propose the use of tree-ring analyses, stable-isotope analyses, manipulative field experiments, and well-validated simulation models to improve predictions of forest responses to global change. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global climate change: the quantifiable sustainability challenge.

PubMed

Princiotta, Frank T; Loughlin, Daniel H

2014-09-01

Population growth and the pressures spawned by increasing demands for energy and resource-intensive goods, foods, and services are driving unsustainable growth in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Recent GHG emission trends are consistent with worst-case scenarios of the previous decade. Dramatic and near-term emission reductions likely will be needed to ameliorate the potential deleterious impacts of climate change. To achieve such reductions, fundamental changes are required in the way that energy is generated and used. New technologies must be developed and deployed at a rapid rate. Advances in carbon capture and storage, renewable, nuclear and transportation technologies are particularly important; however, global research and development efforts related to these technologies currently appear to fall short relative to needs. Even with a proactive and international mitigation effort, humanity will need to adapt to climate change, but the adaptation needs and damages will be far greater if mitigation activities are not pursued in earnest. In this review, research is highlighted that indicates increasing global and regional temperatures and ties climate changes to increasing GHG emissions. GHG mitigation targets necessary for limiting future global temperature increases are discussed, including how factors such as population growth and the growing energy intensity of the developing world will make these reduction targets more challenging. Potential technological pathways for meeting emission reduction targets are examined, barriers are discussed, and global and US. modeling results are presented that suggest that the necessary pathways will require radically transformed electric and mobile sectors. While geoengineering options have been proposed to allow more time for serious emission reductions, these measures are at the conceptual stage with many unanswered cost, environmental, and political issues. Implications: This paper lays out the case that mitigating the

Psychological research and global climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clayton, Susan; Devine-Wright, Patrick; Stern, Paul C.; Whitmarsh, Lorraine; Carrico, Amanda; Steg, Linda; Swim, Janet; Bonnes, Mirilia

2015-07-01

Human behaviour is integral not only to causing global climate change but also to responding and adapting to it. Here, we argue that psychological research should inform efforts to address climate change, to avoid misunderstandings about human behaviour and motivations that can lead to ineffective or misguided policies. We review three key research areas: describing human perceptions of climate change; understanding and changing individual and household behaviour that drives climate change; and examining the human impacts of climate change and adaptation responses. Although much has been learned in these areas, we suggest important directions for further research.

Global Climate Change Interaction Web.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fortner, Rosanne W.

1998-01-01

Students investigate the effects of global climate change on life in the Great Lakes region in this activity. Teams working together construct as many links as possible for such factors as rainfall, lake water, evaporation, skiing, zebra mussels, wetlands, shipping, walleye, toxic chemicals, coastal homes, and population. (PVD)

Ways to Include Global Climate Change in Courses for Prospective Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

van Zee, Emily; Grobart, Emma; Roberts-Harris, Deborah

2016-01-01

What responsibility do science teacher educators have for engaging students in learning about global climate change in courses? How can the topic of global climate change be added to an already packed course curriculum? The authors have begun assembling instructional resources and learning ways others have incorporated global climate change in…

The global land rush and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, Kyle Frankel; Rulli, Maria Cristina; D'Odorico, Paolo

2015-08-01

Climate change poses a serious global challenge in the face of rapidly increasing human demand for energy and food. A recent phenomenon in which climate change may play an important role is the acquisition of large tracts of land in the developing world by governments and corporations. In the target countries, where land is relatively inexpensive, the potential to increase crop yields is generally high and property rights are often poorly defined. By acquiring land, investors can realize large profits and countries can substantially alter the land and water resources under their control, thereby changing their outlook for meeting future demand. While the drivers, actors, and impacts involved with land deals have received substantial attention in the literature, we propose that climate change plays an important yet underappreciated role, both through its direct effects on agricultural production and through its influence on mitigative or adaptive policy decisions. Drawing from various literature sources as well as a new global database on reported land deals, we trace the evolution of the global land rush and highlight prominent examples in which the role of climate change is evident. We find that climate change—both historical and anticipated—interacts substantially with drivers of land acquisitions, having important implications for the resilience of communities in targeted areas. As a result of this synthesis, we ultimately contend that considerations of climate change should be integrated into future policy decisions relating to the large-scale land acquisitions.

Global Surface Temperature Change and Uncertainties Since 1861

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shen, Samuel S. P.; Lau, William K. M. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The objective of this talk is to analyze the warming trend and its uncertainties of the global and hemi-spheric surface temperatures. By the method of statistical optimal averaging scheme, the land surface air temperature and sea surface temperature observational data are used to compute the spatial average annual mean surface air temperature. The optimal averaging method is derived from the minimization of the mean square error between the true and estimated averages and uses the empirical orthogonal functions. The method can accurately estimate the errors of the spatial average due to observational gaps and random measurement errors. In addition, quantified are three independent uncertainty factors: urbanization, change of the in situ observational practices and sea surface temperature data corrections. Based on these uncertainties, the best linear fit to annual global surface temperature gives an increase of 0.61 +/- 0.16 C between 1861 and 2000. This lecture will also touch the topics on the impact of global change on nature and environment. as well as the latest assessment methods for the attributions of global change.

Designing Global Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Griffith, P. C.; ORyan, C.

2012-12-01

In a time when sensationalism rules the online world, it is best to keep things short. The people of the online world are not passing back and forth lengthy articles, but rather brief glimpses of complex information. This is the target audience we attempt to educate. Our challenge is then to attack not only ignorance, but also apathy toward global climate change, while conforming to popular modes of learning. When communicating our scientific material, it was difficult to determine what level of information was appropriate for our audience, especially with complex subject matter. Our unconventional approach for communicating the carbon crisis as it applies to global climate change caters to these 'recreational learners'. Using story-telling devices acquired from Carolyne's biomedical art background coupled with Peter's extensive knowledge of carbon cycle and ecosystems science, we developed a dynamic series of illustrations that capture the attention of a callous audience. Adapting complex carbon cycle and climate science into comic-book-style animations creates a channel between artist, scientist, and the general public. Brief scenes of information accompanied by text provide a perfect platform for visual learners, as well as fresh portrayals of stale material for the jaded. In this way art transcends the barriers of the cerebral and the abstract, paving the road to understanding.;

The evolution of global disaster risk assessments: from hazard to global change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peduzzi, Pascal

2013-04-01

The perception of disaster risk as a dynamic process interlinked with global change is a fairly recent concept. It gradually emerged as an evolution from new scientific theories, currents of thinking and lessons learned from large disasters since the 1970s. The interest was further heighten, in the mid-1980s, by the Chernobyl nuclear accident and the discovery of the ozone layer hole, both bringing awareness that dangerous hazards can generate global impacts. The creation of the UN International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR) and the publication of the first IPCC report in 1990 reinforced the interest for global risk assessment. First global risk models including hazard, exposure and vulnerability components were available since mid-2000s. Since then increased computation power and more refined datasets resolution, led to more numerous and sophisticated global risk models. This article presents a recent history of global disaster risk models, the current status of researches for the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR 2013) and future challenges and limitations for the development of next generation global disaster risk models.

Global Climate Change and the Mitigation Challenge

EPA Science Inventory

Book edited by Frank Princiotta titled Global Climate Change--The Technology Challenge Transparent modeling tools and the most recent literature are used, to quantify the challenge posed by climate change and potential technological remedies. The chapter examines forces driving ...

The changing global context of public health.

PubMed

McMichael, A J; Beaglehole, R

2000-08-05

Future health prospects depend increasingly on globalisation processes and on the impact of global environmental change. Economic globalisation--entailng deregulated trade and investment--is a mixed blessing for health. Economic growth and the dissemination of technologies have widely enhanced life expectancy. However, aspects of globalisation are jeopardising health by eroding social and environmental conditions, exacerbating the rich-poor gap, and disseminating consumerism. Global environmental changes reflect the growth of populations and the intensity of economic activity. These changes include altered composition of the atmosphere, land degradation, depletion of terrestrial aquifers and ocean fisheries, and loss of biodiversity. This weakening of life-supporting systems poses health risks. Contemporary public health must therefore encompass the interrelated tasks of reducing social and health inequalities and achieving health-sustaining environments.

Forest Service Global Change Research Strategy, 2009-2019 Implementation Plan

Treesearch

Allen Solomon; Richard A. Birdsey; Linda A. Joyce

2010-01-01

In keeping with the research goals of the U.S. Global Change Research Program, the climate change strategy of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), and the climate change framework of the Forest Service, this Forest Service Global Change Research Strategy, 2009-2019 Implementation Plan (hereafter called the Research Plan), was written by Forest Service Research...

GLOBEC: Global Ocean Ecosystems Dynamics: A component of the US Global Change Research Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1991-01-01

GLOBEC (GLOBal ocean ECosystems dynamics) is a research initiative proposed by the oceanographic and fisheries communities to address the question of how changes in global environment are expected to affect the abundance and production of animals in the sea. The approach to this problem is to develop a fundamental understanding of the mechanisms that determine both the abundance of key marine animal populations and their variances in space and time. The assumption is that the physical environment is a major contributor to patterns of abundance and production of marine animals, in large part because the planktonic life stages typical of most marine animals are intrinsically at the mercy of the fluid motions of the medium in which they live. Consequently, the authors reason that a logical approach to predicting the potential impact of a globally changing environment is to understand how the physical environment, both directly and indirectly, contributes to animal abundance and its variability in marine ecosystems. The plans for this coordinated study of of the potential impact of global change on ocean ecosystems dynamics are discussed.

Challenges in Global Land Use/Land Cover Change Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clarke, K. C.

2011-12-01

For the purposes of projecting and anticipating human-induced land use change at the global scale, much work remains in the systematic mapping and modeling of world-wide land uses and their related dynamics. In particular, research has focused on tropical deforestation, loss of prime agricultural land, loss of wild land and open space, and the spread of urbanization. Fifteen years of experience in modeling land use and land cover change at the regional and city level with the cellular automata model SLEUTH, including cross city and regional comparisons, has led to an ability to comment on the challenges and constraints that apply to global level land use change modeling. Some issues are common to other modeling domains, such as scaling, earth geometry, and model coupling. Others relate to geographical scaling of human activity, while some are issues of data fusion and international interoperability. Grid computing now offers the prospect of global land use change simulation. This presentation summarizes what barriers face global scale land use modeling, but also highlights the benefits of such modeling activity on global change research. An approach to converting land use maps and forecasts into environmental impact measurements is proposed. Using such an approach means that multitemporal mapping, often using remotely sensed sources, and forecasting can also yield results showing the overall and disaggregated status of the environment.

An Evaluation of Global and Local Tensile Properties of Friction-Stir Welded DP980 Dual-Phase Steel Joints Using a Digital Image Correlation Method

PubMed Central

Lee, Hyoungwook; Kim, Cheolhee; Song, Jung Han

2015-01-01

The effect of the microstructure heterogeneity on the tensile plastic deformation characteristic of friction-stir-welded (FSW) dual-phase (DP) steel was investigated for the potential applications on the lightweight design of vehicles. Friction-stir-welded specimens with a butt joint configuration were prepared, and quasi-static tensile tests were conducted, to evaluate the tensile properties of DP980 dual-phase steels. The friction-stir welding led to the formation of martensite and a significant hardness rise in the stir zone (SZ), but the presence of a soft zone in the heat-affected zone (HAZ) was caused by tempering of the pre-existing martensite. Owing to the appearance of severe soft zone, DP980 FSW joint showed almost 93% joint efficiency with the view-point of ultimate tensile strength and relatively low ductility than the base metal (BM). The local tensile deformation characteristic of the FSW joints was also examined using the digital image correlation (DIC) methodology by mapping the global and local strain distribution, and was subsequently analyzed by mechanics calculation. It is found that the tensile deformation of the FSW joints is highly heterogeneous, leading to a significant decrease in global ductility. The HAZ of the joints is the weakest region where the strain localizes early, and this localization extends until fracture with a strain near 30%, while the strain in the SZ and BM is only 1% and 4%, respectively. Local constitutive properties in different heterogeneous regions through the friction-stir-welded joint was also briefly evaluated by assuming iso-stress conditions. The local stress-strain curves of individual weld zones provide a clear indication of the heterogeneity of the local mechanical properties. PMID:28793720

An Evaluation of Global and Local Tensile Properties of Friction-Stir Welded DP980 Dual-Phase Steel Joints Using a Digital Image Correlation Method.

PubMed

Lee, Hyoungwook; Kim, Cheolhee; Song, Jung Han

2015-12-04

The effect of the microstructure heterogeneity on the tensile plastic deformation characteristic of friction-stir-welded (FSW) dual-phase (DP) steel was investigated for the potential applications on the lightweight design of vehicles. Friction-stir-welded specimens with a butt joint configuration were prepared, and quasi-static tensile tests were conducted, to evaluate the tensile properties of DP980 dual-phase steels. The friction-stir welding led to the formation of martensite and a significant hardness rise in the stir zone (SZ), but the presence of a soft zone in the heat-affected zone (HAZ) was caused by tempering of the pre-existing martensite. Owing to the appearance of severe soft zone, DP980 FSW joint showed almost 93% joint efficiency with the view-point of ultimate tensile strength and relatively low ductility than the base metal (BM). The local tensile deformation characteristic of the FSW joints was also examined using the digital image correlation (DIC) methodology by mapping the global and local strain distribution, and was subsequently analyzed by mechanics calculation. It is found that the tensile deformation of the FSW joints is highly heterogeneous, leading to a significant decrease in global ductility. The HAZ of the joints is the weakest region where the strain localizes early, and this localization extends until fracture with a strain near 30%, while the strain in the SZ and BM is only 1% and 4%, respectively. Local constitutive properties in different heterogeneous regions through the friction-stir-welded joint was also briefly evaluated by assuming iso-stress conditions. The local stress-strain curves of individual weld zones provide a clear indication of the heterogeneity of the local mechanical properties.

Organizational transformation: a model for joint optimization of culture change and evidence-based design.

PubMed

Hamilton, D Kirk; Orr, Robin Diane; Raboin, W Ellen

2008-01-01

Healthcare organizations face continuous and accelerating external change and thus must be prepared to manage their own change initiatives proactively. Given that many believe that the U.S. healthcare system is broken and most healthcare organizations are dealing with pervasive problems, some organizations may choose to seek transformational change to achieve the six aims identified by the Institute of Medicine: healthcare that is safe, effective, patient-centered, timely, efficient, and equitable. Transformational change will almost certainly involve organizational culture. Culture change may be most effective when linked to other organizational change initiatives such as organizational strategy, structure, policies, procedures, and recruiting. Significant organizational change often requires accompanying facility change. There is an interdependent relationship between facility design and organizational culture. They affect each other and both impact organizational performance. Sociotechnical theory promotes joint optimization of the social (culture) and technical (facilities) aspects of an organization to achieve sustained positive change. To achieve organizational transformation and to sustain positive change, organizations must be prepared to adopt collaborative efforts in culture change and facility design. The authors propose a model for accomplishing joint optimization of culture change and evidence-based facility design.

Water - The key to global change. [of weather and climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Soffen, Gerald A.

1988-01-01

The role of water in processes of global change is discussed. The importance of water in global warming, the loss of biological diversity, the activity of the El Nino southern oscillation, and the melting of polar ice are examined. Plans for a mission to measure tropical rainfall using a two frequency radar, a visible/IR radiometer and a passive microwave radiometer are noted. The way in which global change is affected by changes in patterns of available water is considered.

Biocrusts in the context of global change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reed, Sasha C.; Maestre, Fernando T.; Ochoa-Hueso, Raul; Kuske, Cheryl; Darrouzet-Nardi, Anthony N.; Darby, Brian; Sinsabaugh, Bob; Oliver, Mel; Sancho, Leo; Belnap, Jayne

2016-01-01

A wide range of studies show global environmental change will profoundly affect the structure, function, and dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems. The research synthesized here underscores that biocrust communities are also likely to respond significantly to global change drivers, with a large potential for modification to their abundance, composition, and function. We examine how elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations, climate change (increased temperature and altered precipitation), and nitrogen deposition affect biocrusts and the ecosystems they inhabit. We integrate experimental and observational data, as well as physiological, community ecology, and biogeochemical perspectives. Taken together, these data highlight the potential for biocrust organisms to respond dramatically to environmental change and show how changes to biocrust community composition translate into effects on ecosystem function (e.g., carbon and nutrient cycling, soil stability, energy balance). Due to the importance of biocrusts in regulating dryland ecosystem processes and the potential for large modifications to biocrust communities, an improved understanding and predictive capacity regarding biocrust responses to environmental change are of scientific and societal relevance.

Relationship of Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission to Global Change Research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Eric A.; Starr, David OC. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

In late 2001, the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission was approved as a new start by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). This new mission is motivated by a number of scientific questions that are posed over a range of space and time scales that generally fall within the discipline of the global water and energy cycle (GWEC). Recognizing that satellite rainfall datasets are now a foremost tool for understanding global climate variability out to decadal scales and beyond, for improving weather forecasting, and for producing better predictions of hydrometeorological processes including short-term hazardous flooding and seasonal fresh water resources assessment, a comprehensive and internationally sanctioned global measuring strategy has led to the GPM mission. The GPM mission plans to expand the scope of rainfall measurement through use of a multi-member satellite constellation that will be contributed by a number of world nations. This talk overviews the GPM scientific research program that has been fostered within NASA, then focuses on scientific progress that is being made in various research areas in the course of the mission formulation phase that are of interest to the global change scientific community. This latter part of the talk addresses research issues that have become central to the GPM science implementation plan concerning: (1) the rate of global water cycling through the atmosphere and surface and the relationship of precipitation variability to the sustained rate of the water cycle; (2) the relationship between climate change and cloud macrophysical- microphysical processes; and (3) the general improvement in measuring precipitation at the fundamental microphysical level that will take place during the GPM era and an explanation of how these improvements are expected to come about.

Global change impacts on mangrove ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

McKee, Karen L.

2004-01-01

Mangroves are tropical/subtropical communities of primarily tree species that grow in the intertidal zone. These tidal forests are important coastal ecosystems that are valued for a variety of ecological and societal goods and services. Major local threats to mangrove ecosystems worldwide include clearcutting and trimming of forests for urban, agricultural, or industrial expansion; hydrological alterations; toxic chemical spills; and eutrophication. In many countries with mangroves, much of the human population resides in the coastal zone, and their activities often negatively impact the integrity of mangrove forests. In addition, eutrophication, which is the process whereby nutrients build up to higher than normal levels in a natural system, is possibly one of the most serious threats to mangroves and associated ecosystems such as coral reefs. Scientists with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) at the National Wetlands Research Center are working to more fully understand global impacts on these significant ecosystems.Changes in climate and other factors may also affect mangroves, but in complex ways. Global warming may promote expansion of mangrove forests to higher latitudes and accelerate sea-level rise through melting of polar ice or steric expansion of oceans. Changes in sea level would alter flooding patterns and the structure and areal extent of mangroves. Climate change may also alter rainfall patterns, which would in turn change local salinity regimes and competitive interactions of mangroves with other wetland species. Increases in frequency or intensity of tropical storms and hurricanes in combination with sea-level rise may alter erosion and sedimentation rates in mangrove forests. Another global change factor that may directly affect mangrove growth is increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), caused by burning of fossil fuels and other factors. Elevated CO2 concentration may increase mangrove growth by stimulating photosynthesis or improving water use

Global Climate Change: Threat Multiplier for AFRICOM?

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-11-06

climate change , stability for Africa hinges upon mitigating the effects of global climate change to prevent future conflicts such as Darfur, and the...instability that fosters terrorism. The National Security Act of 2010 will formally address climate change and the planning requirement for the threat...of Responsibility (AOR). He will need to integrate multinational and multiagency cooperation to address climate change forecasts. The author

Linked Open Data in the Global Change Information System (GCIS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tilmes, Curt A.

2012-01-01

The U.S. Global Change Research Program (http://globalchange.gov) coordinates and integrates federal research on changes in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP is developing a Global Change Information System (GCIS) that will centralize access to data and information related to global change across the U.S. federal government. The first implementation will focus on the 2013 National Climate Assessment (NCA) . (http://assessment.globalchange.gov) The NCA integrates, evaluates, and interprets the findings of the USGCRP; analyzes the effects of global change on the natural environment, agriculture, energy production and use, land and water resources, transportation, human health and welfare, human social systems, and biological diversity; and analyzes current trends in global change, both human-induced and natural, and projects major trends for the subsequent 25 to 100 years. The NCA has received over 500 distinct technical inputs to the process, many of which are reports distilling and synthesizing even more information, coming from thousands of individuals around the federal, state and local governments, academic institutions and non-governmental organizations. The GCIS will present a web-based version of the NCA including annotations linking the findings and content of the NCA with the scientific research, datasets, models, observations, etc. that led to its conclusions. It will use semantic tagging and a linked data approach, assigning globally unique, persistent, resolvable identifiers to all of the related entities and capturing and presenting the relationships between them, both internally and referencing out to other linked data sources and back to agency data centers. The developing W3C PROV Data Model and ontology will be used to capture the provenance trail and present it in both human readable web pages and machine readable formats such as RDF and SPARQL. This will improve visibility into the assessment process, increase

Delivering Global Environmental Change Science Through Documentary Film

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dodgson, K.; Byrne, J. M.; Graham, J. R.

2010-12-01

Communicating authentic science to society presents a significant challenge to researchers. This challenge stems from unfortunate misrepresentation and misunderstanding in the mainstream media, particularly in relation to science on global environmental change. This has resulted in a lower level of confidence and interest amongst audiences in regards to global environmental change and anthropogenic climate change discussions. This project describes a new form of documentary film that aspires to break this trend and increase audiences’ interest, reinvigorating discussion about global environmental change. The documentary film adopts a form that marries traditional scientific presentation with the high entertainment value of narrative storytelling. This format maintains the authenticity of the scientific message and ensures audience engagement throughout the entire presentation due to the fact that a sense of equality and intimacy between the audience and the scientists is achieved. The film features interviews with scientists studying global environmental change and opens with a comparison of authentic scientific information and the mainstream media’s presentation, and subsequent public opinion. This enables an analysis of the growing disconnect between society and the scientific community. Topics investigated include: Arctic ice melt, coastal zone hypoxia, tropical cyclones and acidification. Upon completion of the film, public and private screenings with predetermined audience demographics will be conducted using a short, standardized survey to gain feedback regarding the audience’s overall review of the presentation. In addition to the poster, this presentation features an extended trailer for the documentary film.

Plant ecophysiology and forest response to global change.

PubMed

Buchmann, N

2002-11-01

There are many ways of studying forest responses to global change. Most current national and international programs focus on net gas exchange of the terrestrial biosphere and are typically interdisciplinary, multi-scale projects. Key objectives of these programs are surprisingly similar to those of classical plant ecophysiology studies, i.e., to explore functional relationships of plant or plant community responses to environmental change. Thus, common research questions that link plant ecophysiology to ecosystem functioning can be identified for both research communities, promising complementarity and synergism for joint research projects. Although some well-established ecophysiological relationships, such as light responses or stomatal limitations of photosynthetic gas exchange, are currently employed in many ecosystem-scale net flux studies for gap-filling or modeling, only 14% (n = 27) of all eddy covariance flux studies in forests (n = 196; published between 1992 and April 2002) include plant ecophysiological measurements (n = 24) or biomass and growth estimates (n = 8). Generally, emphasis is on CO2 exchange measurements at various scales (foliage, shoots, branches; n = 14) and water relations measurements (n = 11). These measurements do not fully support the typical parameterization of stand and regional models, which often need information on canopy architecture and nitrogen nutrition. By means of a complementary research approach, valuable information can be acquired that is unobtainable by means of a single approach. This additional information is important for the identification of underlying biotic and environmental drivers, for the regulation of net ecosystem fluxes and their partitioning, and the independent validation of measured net ecosystem fluxes. Thus, combining micrometeorology and ecophysiology at flux sites is strongly recommended for ecosystem functioning studies.

Enhancing Participation in the U.S. Global Change Research Program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Washington, Warren; Lee, Kai; Arent, Doug

2016-02-29

The US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) is a collection of 13 Federal entities charged by law to assist the United States and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change. As the understanding of global change has evolved over the past decades and as demand for scientific information on global change has increased, the USGCRP has increasingly focused on research that can inform decisions to cope with current climate variability and change, to reduce the magnitude of future changes, and to prepare for changes projected over coming decades. Overall, the currentmore » breadth and depth of research in these agencies is insufficient to meet the country's needs, particularly to support decision makers. This report provides a rationale for evaluating current program membership and capabilities and identifying potential new agencies and departments in the hopes that these changes will enable the program to more effectively inform the public and prepare for the future. It also offers actionable recommendations for adjustments to the methods and procedures that will allow the program to better meet its stated goals.« less

The Psychological Impacts of Global Climate Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Doherty, Thomas J.; Clayton, Susan

2011-01-01

An appreciation of the psychological impacts of global climate change entails recognizing the complexity and multiple meanings associated with climate change; situating impacts within other social, technological, and ecological transitions; and recognizing mediators and moderators of impacts. This article describes three classes of psychological…

Effect of changes of femoral offset on abductor and joint reaction forces in total hip arthroplasty.

PubMed

Rüdiger, Hannes A; Guillemin, Maïka; Latypova, Adeliya; Terrier, Alexandre

2017-11-01

Anatomical reconstruction in total hip arthroplasty (THA) allows for physiological muscle function, good functional outcome and implant longevity. Quantitative data on the effect of a loss or gain of femoral offset (FO) are scarce. The aim of this study was to quantitatively describe the effect of FO changes on abductor moment arms, muscle and joint reactions forces. THA was virtually performed on 3D models built from preoperative CT scans of 15 patients undergoing THA. Virtual THA was performed with a perfectly anatomical reconstruction, a loss of 20% of FO (-FO), and a gain of 20% of FO (+FO). These models were combined with a generic musculoskeletal model (OpenSim) to predict moment arms, muscle and joint reaction forces during normal gait cycles. In average, with -FO reconstructions, muscle moment arms decreased, while muscle and hip forces increased significantly (p < 0.001). We observed the opposite with +FO reconstructions. Gluteus medius was more affected than gluteus minimus. -FO had more effect than +FO. A change of 20% of FO induced an average change 8% of abductor moment arms, 16% of their forces, and 6% of the joint reaction force. To our knowledge, this is the first report providing quantitative data on the effect of FO changes on muscle and joint forces during normal gait. A decrease of FO necessitates an increase of abductor muscle force to maintain normal gait, which in turn increases the joint reaction force. This effect underscores the importance of an accurate reconstruction of the femoral offset.

Wintertime urban heat island modified by global climate change over Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hara, M.

2015-12-01

Urban thermal environment change, especially, surface air temperature (SAT) rise in metropolitan areas, is one of the major recent issues in urban areas. The urban thermal environmental change affects not only human health such as heat stroke, but also increasing infectious disease due to spreading out virus vectors habitat and increase of industry and house energy consumption. The SAT rise is mostly caused by global climate change and urban heat island (hereafter UHI) by urbanization. The population in Tokyo metropolitan area is over 30 millions and the Tokyo metropolitan area is one of the biggest megacities in the world. The temperature rise due to urbanization seems comparable to the global climate change in the major megacities. It is important to project how the urbanization and the global climate change affect to the future change of urban thermal environment to plan the adaptation and mitigation policy. To predict future SAT change in urban scale, we should estimate future UHI modified by the global climate change. This study investigates change in UHI intensity (UHII) of major metropolitan areas in Japan by effects of the global climate change. We performed a series of climate simulations. Present climate simulations with and without urban process are conducted for ten seasons using a high-resolution numerical climate model, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Future climate projections with and without urban process are also conducted. The future projections are performed using the pseudo global warming method, assuming 2050s' initial and boundary conditions estimated by a GCM under the RCP scenario. Simulation results indicated that UHII would be enhanced more than 30% in Tokyo during the night due to the global climate change. The enhancement of urban heat island is mostly caused by change of lower atmospheric stability.

Global mean sea level - Indicator of climate change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robock, A.; Hansen, J.; Gornitz, V.; Lebedeff, S.; Moore, E.; Etkins, R.; Epstein, E.

1983-01-01

A critical discussion is presented on the use by Etkins and Epstein (1982) of combined surface air temperature and sea level time series to draw conclusions concerning the discharge of the polar ice sheets. It is objected by Robock that they used Northern Hemisphere land surface air temperature records which are unrepresentative of global sea surface temperature, and he suggests that externally imposed volcanic dust and CO2 forcings can adequately account for observed temperature changes over the last century, with global sea level changing in passive response to sea change as a result of thermal expansion. Hansen et al. adduce evidence for global cooling due to ice discharge that has not exceeded a few hundredths of a degree centigrade in the last century, precluding any importance of this phenomenon in the interpretation of global mean temperature trends for this period. Etkins and Epstein reply that since their 1982 report additional evidence has emerged for the hypothesis that the polar ice caps are diminishing. It is reasserted that each of the indices discussed, including global mean sea surface temperature and sea level, polar ice sheet mass balance, water mass characteristics, and the spin rate and axis of rotation displacement of the earth, are physically linked and can be systematically monitored, as is currently being planned under the auspices of the National Climate Program.

Introduced species: A significant component of human-caused global change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vitousek, Peter M.; D'Antonio, Carla M.; Loope, Lloyd L.; Rejmanek, Marcel; Westbrooks, Randy G.

1997-01-01

Biological invasions are a widespread and significant component of human-caused global environmental change. The extent of invasions of oceanic islands, and their consequences for native biological diversity, have long been recognized. However, invasions of continental regions also are substantial. For example, more than 2,000 species of alien plants are established in the continental United States. These invasions represent a human-caused breakdown of the regional distinctiveness of Earth's flora and fauna—a substantial global change in and of itself. Moreover, there are well- documented examples of invading species that degrade human health and wealth, alter the structure and functioning of otherwise undisturbed ecosystems, and/or threaten native biological diversity. Invasions also interact synergistically with other components of global change. notably land use change. People and institutions working to understand, prevent, and control invasions are carrying out some of the most important—and potentially most effective—work on global environmental change.

Association between disk position and degenerative bone changes of the temporomandibular joints: an imaging study in subjects with TMD.

PubMed

Cortés, Daniel; Sylvester, Daniel Cortés; Exss, Eduardo; Marholz, Carlos; Millas, Rodrigo; Moncada, Gustavo

2011-04-01

The aim of this study was to determine the frequency and relationship between disk position and degenerative bone changes in the temporomandibular joints (TMJ), in subjects with internal derangement (ID). MRI and CT scans of 180 subjects with temporomandibular disorders (TMD) were studied. Different image parameters or characteristics were observed, such as disk position, joint effusion, condyle movement, degenerative bone changes (flattened, cortical erosions and irregularities), osteophytes, subchondral cysts and idiopathic condyle resorption. The present study concluded that there is a significant association between disk displacement without reduction and degenerative bone changes in patients with TMD. The study also found a high probability of degenerative bone changes when disk displacement without reduction is present. No association was found between TMD and condyle range of motion, joint effusion and/or degenerative bone changes. The following were the most frequent morphological changes observed: flattening of the anterior surface of the condyle; followed by erosions and irregularities of the joint surfaces; flattening of the articular surface of the temporal eminence, subchondral cysts, osteophytes; and idiopathic condyle resorption, in decreasing order.

Degenerative joint disease: multiple joint involvement in young and mature dogs.

PubMed

Olsewski, J M; Lust, G; Rendano, V T; Summers, B A

1983-07-01

Radiologic, pathologic, and ancillary methods were used to determine the occurrence of degenerative joint disease involving multiple joints of immature and adult dogs. Animals were selected for the development of hip joint dysplasia and chronic degenerative joint disease. Of disease-prone dogs, 82% (45 of 55 dogs) had radiologic changes, indicative of hip dysplasia, by 1 year of age. At necropsy, more abnormal joints were identified than by radiographic examination. Among 92 dogs between 3 to 11 months of age that had joint abnormalities, 71% had hip joint involvement; 38%, shoulder joint involvement; 22%, stifle joint involvement; and 40% had multiple joint involvement. Polyarthritis was asymptomatic and unexpected. Radiographic examination of older dogs also revealed evidence of degenerative joint disease in many joints. Multiple joint involvement was substantiated at necropsy of young and mature dogs. A similar pattern of polyarticular osteoarthritis was revealed in a survey (computer search) of necropsy reports from medical case records of 100 adult and elderly dogs. Usually, the joint disease was an incidental observation, unrelated to the clinical disease or to the cause of death. The frequent occurrence of degenerative changes in several joints of dogs aged 6 months to 17 years indicated that osteoarthritis may be progressive in these joints and raises the possibility that systemic factors are involved in the disease process.

Global Change Education Resource Guide.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mortensen, Lynn L., Ed.

This guide is intended as an aid to educators who conduct programs and activities on climate and global change issues for a variety of audiences. The selected set of currently available materials are appropriate for both formal and informal programs in environmental education and can help frame and clarify some of the key issues associated with…

The Sensitivity of Regional Precipitation to Global Temperature Change and Forcings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tebaldi, C.; O'Neill, B. C.; Lamarque, J. F.

2016-12-01

Global policies are most commonly formulated in terms of climate targets, like the much talked about 1.5° and 2°C warming thresholds identified as critical by the recent Paris agreements. But what does a target defined in terms of a globally averaged quantity mean in terms of expected regional changes? And, in particular, what should we expect in terms of significant changes in precipitation over specific regional domains for these and other incrementally different global goals? In this talk I will summarize the result of an analysis that aimed at characterizing the sensitivity of regional temperatures and precipitation amounts to changes in global average temperature. The analysis uses results from a multi-model ensemble (CMIP5), which allows us to address structural uncertainty in future projections, a type of uncertainty particularly relevant when considering precipitation changes. I will show what type of changes in global temperature and forcing levels bring about significant and pervasive changes in regional precipitation, contrasting its sensitivity to that of regional temperature changes. Because of the large internal variability of regional precipitation, I will show that significant changes in average regional precipitation can be detected only for fairly large separations (on the order of 2.5° or 3°C) in global average temperature levels, differently from the much higher sensitivity shown by regional temperatures.

Global change and mercury

USGS Publications Warehouse

Krabbenhoft, David P.; Sunderland, Elsie M.

2013-01-01

More than 140 nations recently agreed to a legally binding treaty on reductions in human uses and releases of mercury that will be signed in October of this year. This follows the 2011 rule in the United States that for the first time regulates mercury emissions from electricity-generating utilities. Several decades of scientific research preceded these important regulations. However, the impacts of global change on environmental mercury concentrations and human exposures remain a major uncertainty affecting the potential effectiveness of regulatory activities.

Relationship of Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission to Global Change Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Eric A.

start by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). This new mission is motivated by a number of scientific questions that are posed over a range of space and time scales that generally fall within the discipline of the global water and energy cycle (GWEC). climate variability out to decadal scales and beyond, for improving weather forecasting, and for producing better predictions of hydrometeorological processes including short-term hazardous flooding and seasonal fresh water resources assessment, a comprehensive and internationally- sanctioned global measuring strategy has led to the GPM mission. The GPM mission plans to expand the scope of rainfall measurement through use of a multi-member satellite constellation that will be contributed by a number of world nations. NASA, then focuses on scientific progress that is being made in various research areas in the course of the mission formulation phase that are of interest to the global change scientific community. This latter part of the talk addresses research issues that have become central to the GPM science implementation plan concerning: (1) the rate of global water cycling through the atmosphere and surface and the relationship of precipitation variability to the sustained rate of the water cycle; (2) the relationship between climate change and cloud macrophysical- microphysical processes; and (3) the general improvement in measuring precipitation at the fundamental microphysical level that will take place during the GPM era and an explanation of how these improvements are expected to come about.

From climate to global change: Following the footprint of Prof. Duzheng YE's research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, Congbin

2017-10-01

To commemorate 100 years since the birth of Professor Duzheng YE, this paper reviews the contribution of Ye and his research team to the development from climate to global change science in the past 30 or so years, including: (1) the role of climate change in global change; (2) the critical time scales and predictability of global change; (3) the sensitive regions of global change—transitional zones of climate and ecosystems; and (4) orderly human activities and adaptation to global change, with a focus on the development of a proactive strategy for adaptation to such change.

Global climate change impacts in the United States

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-06-01

This report summarizes the science of climate change and the impacts of climate change on the United States, now and in the future. It is largely based on results of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), a and integrates those results wit...

Understanding Global Change: Frameworks and Models for Teaching Systems Thinking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bean, J. R.; Mitchell, K.; Zoehfeld, K.; Oshry, A.; Menicucci, A. J.; White, L. D.; Marshall, C. R.

2017-12-01

The scientific and education communities must impart to teachers, students, and the public an understanding of how the various factors that drive climate and global change operate, and why the rates and magnitudes of these changes related to human perturbation of Earth system processes today are cause for deep concern. Even though effective educational modules explaining components of the Earth and climate system exist, interdisciplinary learning tools are necessary to conceptually link the causes and consequences of global changes. To address this issue, the Understanding Global Change Project at the University of California Museum of Paleontology (UCMP) at UC Berkeley developed an interdisciplinary framework that organizes global change topics into three categories: (1) causes of climate change, both human and non-human (e.g., burning of fossil fuels, deforestation, Earth's tilt and orbit), (2) Earth system processes that shape the way the Earth works (e.g., Earth's energy budget, water cycle), and (3) the measurable changes in the Earth system (e.g., temperature, precipitation, ocean acidification). To facilitate student learning about the Earth as a dynamic, interacting system, a website will provide visualizations of Earth system models and written descriptions of how each framework topic is conceptually linked to other components of the framework. These visualizations and textual summarizations of relationships and feedbacks in the Earth system are a unique and crucial contribution to science communication and education, informed by a team of interdisciplinary scientists and educators. The system models are also mechanisms by which scientists can communicate how their own work informs our understanding of the Earth system. Educators can provide context and relevancy for authentic datasets and concurrently can assess student understanding of the interconnectedness of global change phenomena. The UGC resources will be available through a web-based platform and

GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH NEWS #2: MID-ATLANTIC REGIONAL ASSESSMENT (MARA)

EPA Science Inventory

As part of this National Assessment effort mandated by the Global Change Research Act of 1990, EPA's Global Change Research Program is sponsoring the Mid-Atlantic Regional Assessment (MARA). With EPA sponsorship, a multi-disciplinary team of faculty members is leading the first a...

Global change and the evolution of phenotypic plasticity in plants.

PubMed

Matesanz, Silvia; Gianoli, Ernesto; Valladares, Fernando

2010-09-01

Global change drivers create new environmental scenarios and selective pressures, affecting plant species in various interacting ways. Plants respond with changes in phenology, physiology, and reproduction, with consequences for biotic interactions and community composition. We review information on phenotypic plasticity, a primary means by which plants cope with global change scenarios, recommending promising approaches for investigating the evolution of plasticity and describing constraints to its evolution. We discuss the important but largely ignored role of phenotypic plasticity in range shifts and review the extensive literature on invasive species as models of evolutionary change in novel environments. Plasticity can play a role both in the short-term response of plant populations to global change as well as in their long-term fate through the maintenance of genetic variation. In new environmental conditions, plasticity of certain functional traits may be beneficial (i.e., the plastic response is accompanied by a fitness advantage) and thus selected for. Plasticity can also be relevant in the establishment and persistence of plants in novel environments that are crucial for populations at the colonizing edge in range shifts induced by climate change. Experimental studies show taxonomically widespread plastic responses to global change drivers in many functional traits, though there is a lack of empirical support for many theoretical models on the evolution of phenotypic plasticity. Future studies should assess the adaptive value and evolutionary potential of plasticity under complex, realistic global change scenarios. Promising tools include resurrection protocols and artificial selection experiments. © 2010 New York Academy of Sciences.

Climate Change and Expected Impacts on the Global Water Cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rind, David; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

How the elements of the global hydrologic cycle may respond to climate change is reviewed, first from a discussion of the physical sensitivity of these elements to changes in temperature, and then from a comparison of observations of hydrologic changes over the past 100 million years. Observations of current changes in the hydrologic cycle are then compared with projected future changes given the prospect of global warming. It is shown that some of the projections come close to matching the estimated hydrologic changes that occurred long ago when the earth was very warm.

Sixth-Grade Students' Progress in Understanding the Mechanisms of Global Climate Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Visintainer, Tammie; Linn, Marcia

2015-01-01

Developing solutions for complex issues such as global climate change requires an understanding of the mechanisms involved. This study reports on the impact of a technology-enhanced unit designed to improve understanding of global climate change, its mechanisms, and their relationship to everyday energy use. Global Climate Change, implemented in…

Land Cover Applications, Landscape Dynamics, and Global Change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tieszen, Larry L.

2007-01-01

The Land Cover Applications, Landscape Dynamics, and Global Change project at U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) seeks to integrate remote sensing and simulation models to better understand and seek solutions to national and global issues. Modeling processes related to population impacts, natural resource management, climate change, invasive species, land use changes, energy development, and climate mitigation all pose significant scientific opportunities. The project activities use remotely sensed data to support spatial monitoring, provide sensitivity analyses across landscapes and large regions, and make the data and results available on the Internet with data access and distribution, decision support systems, and on-line modeling. Applications support sustainable natural resource use, carbon cycle science, biodiversity conservation, climate change mitigation, and robust simulation modeling approaches that evaluate ecosystem and landscape dynamics.

Magnetic resonance imaging changes of sacroiliac joints in patients with recent-onset inflammatory back pain: inter-reader reliability and prevalence of abnormalities.

PubMed

Heuft-Dorenbosch, Liesbeth; Weijers, René; Landewé, Robert; van der Linden, Sjef; van der Heijde, Désirée

2006-01-01

To study the inter-reader reliability of detecting abnormalities of sacroiliac (SI) joints in patients with recent-onset inflammatory back pain by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), and to study the prevalence of inflammation and structural changes at various sites of the SI joints. Sixty-eight patients with inflammatory back pain (at least four of the five following criteria: symptom onset before age 40, insidious onset, morning stiffness, duration >3 months, improvement with exercise--or three out of five of these plus night pain) were included (38% male; mean age, 34.9 years [standard deviation 10.3]; 46% HLA-B27-positive; mean symptom duration, 18 months), with symptom duration <2 years. A MRI scan of the SI joints was made in the coronal plane with the following sequences: T1-weighted spin echo, short-tau inversion recovery, T2-weighted fast-spin echo with fat saturation, and T1-spin echo with fat saturation after the administration of gadolinium. Both SI joints were scored for inflammation (separately for subchondral bone and bone marrow, joint space, joint capsule, ligaments) as well as for structural changes (erosions, sclerosis, ankylosis), by two observers independently. Agreement between the two readers was analysed by concordance and discordance rates and by kappa statistics. Inflammation was present in 32 SI joints of 22 patients, most frequently located in bone marrow and/or subchondral bone (29 joints in 21 patients). Readers agreed on the presence of inflammation in 85% of the cases in the right SI joint and in 78% of the cases in the left SI joint. Structural changes on MRI were present in 11 patients. Ten of these 11 patients also showed signs of inflammation. Agreement on the presence or absence of inflammation and structural changes of SI joints by MRI was acceptable, and was sufficiently high to be useful in ascertaining inflammatory and structural changes due to sacroiliitis. About one-third of patients with recent-onset inflammatory back pain

A DBMS architecture for global change research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hachem, Nabil I.; Gennert, Michael A.; Ward, Matthew O.

1993-08-01

The goal of this research is the design and development of an integrated system for the management of very large scientific databases, cartographic/geographic information processing, and exploratory scientific data analysis for global change research. The system will represent both spatial and temporal knowledge about natural and man-made entities on the eath's surface, following an object-oriented paradigm. A user will be able to derive, modify, and apply, procedures to perform operations on the data, including comparison, derivation, prediction, validation, and visualization. This work represents an effort to extend the database technology with an intrinsic class of operators, which is extensible and responds to the growing needs of scientific research. Of significance is the integration of many diverse forms of data into the database, including cartography, geography, hydrography, hypsography, images, and urban planning data. Equally important is the maintenance of metadata, that is, data about the data, such as coordinate transformation parameters, map scales, and audit trails of previous processing operations. This project will impact the fields of geographical information systems and global change research as well as the database community. It will provide an integrated database management testbed for scientific research, and a testbed for the development of analysis tools to understand and predict global change.

Understanding global climate change scenarios through bioclimate stratification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soteriades, A. D.; Murray-Rust, D.; Trabucco, A.; Metzger, M. J.

2017-08-01

Despite progress in impact modelling, communicating and understanding the implications of climatic change projections is challenging due to inherent complexity and a cascade of uncertainty. In this letter, we present an alternative representation of global climate change projections based on shifts in 125 multivariate strata characterized by relatively homogeneous climate. These strata form climate analogues that help in the interpretation of climate change impacts. A Random Forests classifier was calculated and applied to 63 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate scenarios at 5 arcmin resolution. Results demonstrate how shifting bioclimate strata can summarize future environmental changes and form a middle ground, conveniently integrating current knowledge of climate change impact with the interpretation advantages of categorical data but with a level of detail that resembles a continuous surface at global and regional scales. Both the agreement in major change and differences between climate change projections are visually combined, facilitating the interpretation of complex uncertainty. By making the data and the classifier available we provide a climate service that helps facilitate communication and provide new insight into the consequences of climate change.

Data and information system requirements for Global Change Research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Skole, David L.; Chomentowski, Walter H.; Ding, Binbin; Moore, Berrien, III

1992-01-01

Efforts to develop local information systems for supporting interdisciplinary Global Change Research are described. A prototype system, the Interdisciplinary Science Data and Information System (IDS-DIS), designed to interface the larger archives centers of EOS-DIS is presented. Particular attention is given to a data query information management system (IMS), which has been used to tabulate information of Landsat data worldwide. The use of these data in a modeling analysis of deforestation and carbon dioxide emissions is demonstrated. The development of distributed local information systems is considered to be complementary to the development of central data archives. Global Change Research under the EOS program is likely to result in proliferation of data centers. It is concluded that a distributed system is a feasible and natural way to manage data and information for global change research.

Joint Application of Concentrations and Isotopic Signatures to Investigate the Global Atmospheric Carbon Monoxide Budget: Inverse Modeling Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, K.; Emmons, L. K.; Mak, J. E.

2007-12-01

Carbon monoxide is not only an important component for determining the atmospheric oxidizing capacity but also a key trace gas in the atmospheric chemistry of the Earth's background environment. The global CO cycle and its change are closely related to both the change of CO mixing ratio and the change of source strength. Previously, to estimate the global CO budget, most top-down estimation techniques have been applied the concentrations of CO solely. Since CO from certain sources has a unique isotopic signature, its isotopes provide additional information to constrain its sources. Thus, coupling the concentration and isotope fraction information enables to tightly constrain CO flux by its sources and allows better estimations on the global CO budget. MOZART4 (Model for Ozone And Related chemical Tracers), a 3-D global chemical transport model developed at NCAR, MPI for meteorology and NOAA/GFDL and is used to simulate the global CO concentration and its isotopic signature. Also, a tracer version of MOZART4 which tagged for C16O and C18O from each region and each source was developed to see their contributions to the atmosphere efficiently. Based on the nine-year- simulation results we analyze the influences of each source of CO to the isotopic signature and the concentration. Especially, the evaluations are focused on the oxygen isotope of CO (δ18O), which has not been extensively studied yet. To validate the model performance, CO concentrations and isotopic signatures measured from MPI, NIWA and our lab are compared to the modeled results. The MOZART4 reproduced observational data fairly well; especially in mid to high latitude northern hemisphere. Bayesian inversion techniques have been used to estimate the global CO budget with combining observed and modeled CO concentration. However, previous studies show significant differences in their estimations on CO source strengths. Because, in addition to the CO mixing ratio, isotopic signatures are independent

Joint Application of Concentrations and Isotopic Signatures to Investigate the Global Atmospheric Carbon Monoxide Budget: Inverse Modeling Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, K.; Mak, J. E.; Emmons, L. K.

2008-12-01

Carbon monoxide is not only an important component for determining the atmospheric oxidizing capacity but also a key trace gas in the atmospheric chemistry of the Earth's background environment. The global CO cycle and its change are closely related to both the change of CO mixing ratio and the change of source strength. Previously, to estimate the global CO budget, most top-down estimation techniques have been applied the concentrations of CO solely. Since CO from certain sources has a unique isotopic signature, its isotopes provide additional information to constrain its sources. Thus, coupling the concentration and isotope fraction information enables to tightly constrain CO flux by its sources and allows better estimations on the global CO budget. MOZART4 (Model for Ozone And Related chemical Tracers), a 3-D global chemical transport model developed at NCAR, MPI for meteorology and NOAA/GFDL and is used to simulate the global CO concentration and its isotopic signature. Also, a tracer version of MOZART4 which tagged for C16O and C18O from each region and each source was developed to see their contributions to the atmosphere efficiently. Based on the nine-year-simulation results we analyze the influences of each source of CO to the isotopic signature and the concentration. Especially, the evaluations are focused on the oxygen isotope of CO (δ18O), which has not been extensively studied yet. To validate the model performance, CO concentrations and isotopic signatures measured from MPI, NIWA and our lab are compared to the modeled results. The MOZART4 reproduced observational data fairly well; especially in mid to high latitude northern hemisphere. Bayesian inversion techniques have been used to estimate the global CO budget with combining observed and modeled CO concentration. However, previous studies show significant differences in their estimations on CO source strengths. Because, in addition to the CO mixing ratio, isotopic signatures are independent tracers

Changes in yields and their variability at different levels of global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Childers, Katelin

2015-04-01

An assessment of climate change impacts at different levels of global warming is crucial to inform the political discussion about mitigation targets as well as for the inclusion of climate change impacts in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) that generally only provide global mean temperature change as an indicator of climate change. While there is a well-established framework for the scalability of regional temperature and precipitation changes with global mean temperature change we provide an assessment of the extent to which impacts such as crop yield changes can also be described in terms of global mean temperature changes without accounting for the specific underlying emissions scenario. Based on multi-crop-model simulations of the four major cereal crops (maize, rice, soy, and wheat) on a 0.5 x 0.5 degree global grid generated within ISI-MIP, we show the average spatial patterns of projected crop yield changes at one half degree warming steps. We find that emissions scenario dependence is a minor component of the overall variance of projected yield changes at different levels of global warming. Furthermore, scenario dependence can be reduced by accounting for the direct effects of CO2 fertilization in each global climate model (GCM)/impact model combination through an inclusion of the global atmospheric CO2 concentration as a second predictor. The choice of GCM output used to force the crop model simulations accounts for a slightly larger portion of the total yield variance, but the greatest contributor to variance in both global and regional crop yields and at all levels of warming, is the inter-crop-model spread. The unique multi impact model ensemble available with ISI-MIP data also indicates that the overall variability of crop yields is projected to increase in conjunction with increasing global mean temperature. This result is consistent throughout the ensemble of impact models and across many world regions. Such a hike in yield volatility could have

Global change: Geographical approaches (A Review)*

PubMed Central

Kotlyakov, V. M.; Mather, J. R.; Sdasyuk, G. V.; White, G. F.

1988-01-01

The International Geosphere Biosphere Program sponsored by the International Council of Scientific Unions is directing attention to geophysical and biological change as influenced by human modifications in global energy and mass exchanges. Geographers in the Soviet Union and the United States have joined in critical appraisal of their experience in studying environmental change. This initial report is on some promising approaches, such as the reconstruction of earlier landscape processes, modeling of the dynamics of present-day landscapes, analysis of causes and consequences of anthropogenic changes in specified regions, appraisal of social response to change, and enhanced geographic information systems supported by detailed site studies. PMID:16593971

Seagrass meadows in a globally changing environment.

PubMed

Unsworth, Richard K F; van Keulen, Mike; Coles, Rob G

2014-06-30

Seagrass meadows are valuable ecosystem service providers that are now being lost globally at an unprecedented rate, with water quality and other localised stressors putting their future viability in doubt. It is therefore critical that we learn more about the interactions between seagrass meadows and future environmental change in the anthropocene. This needs to be with particular reference to the consequences of poor water quality on ecosystem resilience and the effects of change on trophic interactions within the food web. Understanding and predicting the response of seagrass meadows to future environmental change requires an understanding of the natural long-term drivers of change and how these are currently influenced by anthropogenic stress. Conservation management of coastal and marine ecosystems now and in the future requires increased knowledge of how seagrass meadows respond to environmental change, and how they can be managed to be resilient to these changes. Finding solutions to such issues also requires recognising people as part of the social-ecological system. This special issue aims to further enhance this knowledge by bringing together global expertise across this field. The special issues considers issues such as ecosystem service delivery of seagrass meadows, the drivers of long-term seagrass change and the socio-economic consequences of environmental change to seagrass. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global Environmental Change: Modifying Human Contributions Through Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carter, Lynne M.

1998-12-01

The 1995 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 1996) Science report concludes that evidence now available "points toward a discernible human influence on global climate" (p. 439). Reductions in emissions will require changes in human behavior. This study assessed whether gains in global environmental change knowledge would lead to changes in human behaviors that could be deemed environmentally responsible. The study assessed the impact on participant behavior of a two-and-one-half day National Informal Educators Workshop and Videoconference held November 14-16, 1994. The workshops were located in seven down-link sites around the continental U.S. and Hawaii. The program utilized a variety of pedagogical techniques during five hours of satellite programming with national expertise on global change topics (natural variability, greenhouse effect, ozone depletion, ecosystem response, and population and resource distribution) and applications of that information with local experts in regional workshops. Participants implemented many personal and professional behavior changes after participation in this program. Six behavior change scales were created from assessment of survey responses (four coefficient alphas were above .7, one was .68, and one was .58). Personal behavior changes grouped into three categories: Use of Fewer Resources (acts of everyday life generally under volitional control), Purchasing Choices/Options (less frequent acts, not under total volitional control, with significant environmental effect over the lifetime of the decision, e.g., an automobile) and Increased Awareness and Discussion (indicating changes in "habits of mind"). The professional behavior changes also grouped into three categories: Curriculum Development (developing/revising curricula including new knowledge); Networking (with colleagues from the program); and Office Procedures (reflecting environmentally responsible behavior). The statistically significant behavior changes

Climate change impacts on global rainfed agricultural land availability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, X.; Cai, X.

2010-12-01

Global rainfed agricultural land availability can be subject to significant changes in both magnitude and spatial distribution due to climate change. We assess the possible changes using current and projected climate data from thirteen general circulation models (GCMs) under two emission scenarios, A1B & B1, together with global databases on land, including soil properties and slope. Two ensemble methods with the set of GCMs, Simple Average Method (SAM) and Root Mean Square Error Ensemble Method (RMSEMM), are employed to abate uncertainty involved in global GCM projections for assembling regional climate. Fuzzy logic, which handles land classification in an approximate yet efficient way, is adopted to estimate the land suitability through empirically determined membership functions and fuzzy rules chosen through a learning process based on remote sensed crop land products. Land suitability under five scenarios, which include the present-climate baseline scenario and four projected scenarios, A1B-SAM, A1B-RMSEMM, B1-SAM, and B1-RMSEMM, are assessed for both global and seven important agricultural regions in the world, Africa, China, India, Europe (excluding Russia), Russia, South America, and U.S. It is found that countries at the high latitudes of north hemisphere are more likely to benefit from climate change with respect to agricultural land availability; while countries at mid- and low latitudes may suffer different levels of loss of potential arable land. Expansions of the gross potential arable land are likely to occur in regions at the north high latitudes, including Russia, North China and U.S., while land shrinking can be expected in South America, Africa, India and Europe. Although the greatest potential for agricultural expansion lies in Africa and South America, with current cultivated land accounting for 20% and 13% respectively of the net potential arable land, negative effects from climate change may decline the potential. In summary, climate change

Beyond the Joint: The Role of Central Nervous System Reorganizations in Chronic Musculoskeletal Disorders.

PubMed

Roy, Jean-Sébastien; Bouyer, Laurent J; Langevin, Pierre; Mercier, Catherine

2017-11-01

To a large extent, management of musculoskeletal disorders has traditionally focused on structural dysfunctions found within the musculoskeletal system, mainly around the affected joint. While a structural-dysfunction approach may be effective for musculoskeletal conditions in some populations, especially in acute presentations, its effectiveness remains limited in patients with recurrent or chronic musculoskeletal pain. Numerous studies have shown that the human central nervous system can undergo plastic reorganizations following musculoskeletal disorders; however, they can be maladaptive and contribute to altered joint control and chronic pain. In this Viewpoint, the authors argue that to improve rehabilitation outcomes in patients with chronic musculoskeletal pain, a global view of the disorder that incorporates both central (neural) and peripheral (joint-level) changes is needed. The authors also discuss the challenge of evaluating and rehabilitating central changes and the need for large, high-level studies to evaluate approaches incorporating central and peripheral changes and emerging therapies. J Orthop Sports Phys Ther 2017;47(11):817-821. doi:10.2519/jospt.2017.0608.

Global change and terrestrial hydrology - A review

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dickinson, Robert E.

1991-01-01

This paper reviews the role of terrestrial hydrology in determining the coupling between the surface and atmosphere. Present experience with interactive numerical simulation is discussed and approaches to the inclusion of land hydrology in global climate models ae considered. At present, a wide range of answers as to expected changes in surface hydrology is given by nominally similar models. Studies of the effects of tropical deforestation and global warming illustrate this point.

The southern global change program

Treesearch

Southeastern Forest Experiment Station

1992-01-01

For mote than a decade, scientists around the world have expressed concern over observed changes in the Earth's environment that suggest fum global environmental problems. They have documented increased levels of air pollutants such as ozone nd acid I as well as in- in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. Scientists also have noted a 0.5°F to l.0°F rise...

Chemistry of the atmosphere: Its impact on global change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Birks, J.W.; Calvert, J.G.; Sievers, R.E.

1993-12-31

This book is a summary of the plenary lectures of the CHEMRAWN VII Conference held in Baltimore, Maryland, 2-7 December 1991. The book draws together some interesting perspectives relating to global change from the atmospheric chemistry community from more of a chemist`s point of view than a meteorologist`s. In fact, Chemical Research Applied to World Needs (CHEMRAWN) illustrates how the international atmospheric chemistry community (the meeting was cosponsored by the International Union of Pure and Applied Chemistry and the American Chemical Society) has traditionally put forth a considerable effort to understand the global environmental impact of dumping chemicals into themore » atmosphere. The primary benefit of this book is the concise summary of the research issues confronting the atmospheric science community regarding global change. Being a summary of plenary lectures, the technical depth of the papers is not great. Therefore the book offers a good presentation of material to the nonspecialist who seeks to understand the issues around which the global change research community has focused.« less

USGS global change science strategy: A framework for understanding and responding to climate and land-use change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burkett, Virginia R.; Taylor, Ione L.; Belnap, Jayne; Cronin, Thomas M.; Dettinger, Michael D.; Frazier, Eldrich L.; Haines, John W.; Kirtland, David A.; Loveland, Thomas R.; Milly, Paul C.D.; O'Malley, Robin; Thompson, Robert S.

2011-01-01

This U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Global Change Science Strategy expands on the Climate Variability and Change science component of the USGS 2007 Science Strategy, “Facing Tomorrow’s Challenges: USGS Science in the Coming Decade” (U.S. Geological Survey, 2007). Here we embrace the broad definition of global change provided in the U.S. Global Change Research Act of 1990 (Public Law 101–606,104 Stat. 3096–3104)—“Changes in the global environment (including alterations in climate, land productivity, oceans or other water resources, atmospheric chemistry, and ecological systems) that may alter the capacity of the Earth to sustain life”—with a focus on climate and land-use change.There are three major characteristics of this science strategy. First, it addresses the science required to broadly inform global change policy, while emphasizing the needs of natural-resource managers and reflecting the role of the USGS as the science provider for the Department of the Interior and other resource-management agencies. Second, the strategy identifies core competencies, noting 10 critical capabilities and strengths the USGS uses to overcome key problem areas. We highlight those areas in which the USGS is a science leader, recognizing the strong partnerships and effective collaboration that are essential to address complex global environmental challenges. Third, it uses a query-based approach listing key research questions that need to be addressed to create an agenda for hypothesis-driven global change science organized under six strategic goals. Overall, the strategy starts from where we are, provides a vision for where we want to go, and then describes high-priority strategic actions, including outcomes, products, and partnerships that can get us there. Global change science is a well-defined research field with strong linkages to the ecosystems, water, energy and minerals, natural hazards, and environmental health components of the USGS Science Strategy

Global climate change and US agriculture

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adams, Richard M.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Peart, Robert M.; Ritchie, Joe T.; Mccarl, Bruce A.

1990-01-01

Agricultural productivity is expected to be sensitive to global climate change. Models from atmospheric science, plant science, and agricultural economics are linked to explore this sensitivity. Although the results depend on the severity of climate change and the compensating effects of carbon dioxide on crop yields, the simulation suggests that irrigated acreage will expand and regional patterns of U.S. agriculture will shift. The impact of the U.S. economy strongly depends on which climate model is used.

Changing recruitment capacity in global fish stocks.

PubMed

Britten, Gregory L; Dowd, Michael; Worm, Boris

2016-01-05

Marine fish and invertebrates are shifting their regional and global distributions in response to climate change, but it is unclear whether their productivity is being affected as well. Here we tested for time-varying trends in biological productivity parameters across 262 fish stocks of 127 species in 39 large marine ecosystems and high-seas areas (hereafter LMEs). This global meta-analysis revealed widespread changes in the relationship between spawning stock size and the production of juvenile offspring (recruitment), suggesting fundamental biological change in fish stock productivity at early life stages. Across regions, we estimate that average recruitment capacity has declined at a rate approximately equal to 3% of the historical maximum per decade. However, we observed large variability among stocks and regions; for example, highly negative trends in the North Atlantic contrast with more neutral patterns in the North Pacific. The extent of biological change in each LME was significantly related to observed changes in phytoplankton chlorophyll concentration and the intensity of historical overfishing in that ecosystem. We conclude that both environmental changes and chronic overfishing have already affected the productive capacity of many stocks at the recruitment stage of the life cycle. These results provide a baseline for ecosystem-based fisheries management and may help adjust expectations for future food production from the oceans.

Processionary Moths and Associated Urtication Risk: Global Change-Driven Effects.

PubMed

Battisti, Andrea; Larsson, Stig; Roques, Alain

2017-01-31

Processionary moths carry urticating setae, which cause health problems in humans and other warm-blooded animals. The pine processionary moth Thaumetopoea pityocampa has responded to global change (climate warming and increased global trade) by extending its distribution range. The subfamily Thaumetopoeinae consists of approximately 100 species. An important question is whether other processionary moth species will similarly respond to these specific dimensions of global change and thus introduce health hazards into new areas. We describe, for the first time, how setae are distributed on different life stages (adult, larva) of major groups within the subfamily. Using the available data, we conclude that there is little evidence that processionary moths as a group will behave like T. pityocampa and expand their distributional range. The health problems caused by setae strongly relate to population density, which may, or may not, be connected to global change.

Finite element modelling predicts changes in joint shape and cell behaviour due to loss of muscle strain in jaw development

PubMed Central

Brunt, Lucy H.; Norton, Joanna L.; Bright, Jen A.; Rayfield, Emily J.; Hammond, Chrissy L.

2015-01-01

Abnormal joint morphogenesis is linked to clinical conditions such as Developmental Dysplasia of the Hip (DDH) and to osteoarthritis (OA). Muscle activity is known to be important during the developmental process of joint morphogenesis. However, less is known about how this mechanical stimulus affects the behaviour of joint cells to generate altered morphology. Using zebrafish, in which we can image all joint musculoskeletal tissues at high resolution, we show that removal of muscle activity through anaesthetisation or genetic manipulation causes a change to the shape of the joint between the Meckel's cartilage and Palatoquadrate (the jaw joint), such that the joint develops asymmetrically leading to an overlap of the cartilage elements on the medial side which inhibits normal joint function. We identify the time during which muscle activity is critical to produce a normal joint. Using Finite Element Analysis (FEA), to model the strains exerted by muscle on the skeletal elements, we identify that minimum principal strains are located at the medial region of the joint and interzone during mouth opening. Then, by studying the cells immediately proximal to the joint, we demonstrate that biomechanical strain regulates cell orientation within the developing joint, such that when muscle-induced strain is removed, cells on the medial side of the joint notably change their orientation. Together, these data show that biomechanical forces are required to establish symmetry in the joint during development. PMID:26253758

Finite element modelling predicts changes in joint shape and cell behaviour due to loss of muscle strain in jaw development.

PubMed

Brunt, Lucy H; Norton, Joanna L; Bright, Jen A; Rayfield, Emily J; Hammond, Chrissy L

2015-09-18

Abnormal joint morphogenesis is linked to clinical conditions such as Developmental Dysplasia of the Hip (DDH) and to osteoarthritis (OA). Muscle activity is known to be important during the developmental process of joint morphogenesis. However, less is known about how this mechanical stimulus affects the behaviour of joint cells to generate altered morphology. Using zebrafish, in which we can image all joint musculoskeletal tissues at high resolution, we show that removal of muscle activity through anaesthetisation or genetic manipulation causes a change to the shape of the joint between the Meckel's cartilage and Palatoquadrate (the jaw joint), such that the joint develops asymmetrically leading to an overlap of the cartilage elements on the medial side which inhibits normal joint function. We identify the time during which muscle activity is critical to produce a normal joint. Using Finite Element Analysis (FEA), to model the strains exerted by muscle on the skeletal elements, we identify that minimum principal strains are located at the medial region of the joint and interzone during mouth opening. Then, by studying the cells immediately proximal to the joint, we demonstrate that biomechanical strain regulates cell orientation within the developing joint, such that when muscle-induced strain is removed, cells on the medial side of the joint notably change their orientation. Together, these data show that biomechanical forces are required to establish symmetry in the joint during development. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Grassland production under global change scenarios for New Zealand pastoral agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keller, E. D.; Baisden, W. T.; Timar, L.; Mullan, B.; Clark, A.

2014-10-01

We adapt and integrate the Biome-BGC and Land Use in Rural New Zealand models to simulate pastoral agriculture and to make land-use change, intensification of agricultural activity and climate change scenario projections of New Zealand's pasture production at time slices centred on 2020, 2050 and 2100, with comparison to a present-day baseline. Biome-BGC model parameters are optimised for pasture production in both dairy and sheep/beef farm systems, representing a new application of the Biome-BGC model. Results show up to a 10% increase in New Zealand's national pasture production in 2020 under intensification and a 1-2% increase by 2050 from economic factors driving land-use change. Climate change scenarios using statistically downscaled global climate models (GCMs) from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report also show national increases of 1-2% in 2050, with significant regional variations. Projected out to 2100, however, these scenarios are more sensitive to the type of pasture system and the severity of warming: dairy systems show an increase in production of 4% under mild change but a decline of 1% under a more extreme case, whereas sheep/beef production declines in both cases by 3 and 13%, respectively. Our results suggest that high-fertility systems such as dairying could be more resilient under future change, with dairy production increasing or only slightly declining in all of our scenarios. These are the first national-scale estimates using a model to evaluate the joint effects of climate change, CO2 fertilisation and N-cycle feedbacks on New Zealand's unique pastoral production systems that dominate the nation's agriculture and economy. Model results emphasise that CO2 fertilisation and N-cycle feedback effects are responsible for meaningful differences in agricultural systems. More broadly, we demonstrate that our model output enables analysis of decoupled land-use change scenarios: the Biome-BGC data products at a national or regional level can be re

Grassland production under global change scenarios for New Zealand pastoral agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keller, E. D.; Baisden, W. T.; Timar, L.; Mullan, B.; Clark, A.

2014-05-01

We adapt and integrate the Biome-BGC and Land Use in Rural New Zealand (LURNZ) models to simulate pastoral agriculture and to make land-use change, intensification and climate change scenario projections of New Zealand's pasture production at time slices centred on 2020, 2050 and 2100, with comparison to a present-day baseline. Biome-BGC model parameters are optimised for pasture production in both dairy and sheep/beef farm systems, representing a new application of the Biome-BGC model. Results show up to a 10% increase in New Zealand's national pasture production in 2020 under intensification and a 1-2% increase by 2050 from economic factors driving land-use change. Climate change scenarios using statistically downscaled global climate models (GCMs) from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) also show national increases of 1-2% in 2050, with significant regional variations. Projected out to 2100, however, these scenarios are more sensitive to the type of pasture system and the severity of warming: dairy systems show an increase in production of 4% under mild change but a decline of 1% under a more extreme case, whereas sheep/beef production declines in both cases by 3% and 13%, respectively. Our results suggest that high-fertility systems such as dairying could be more resilient under future change, with dairy production increasing or only slightly declining in all of our scenarios. These are the first national-scale estimates using a model to evaluate the joint effects of climate change, CO2 fertilisation and N-cycle feedbacks on New Zealand's unique pastoral production systems that dominate the nation's agriculture and economy. Model results emphasize that CO2 fertilisation and N cycle feedback effects are responsible for meaningful differences in agricultural systems. More broadly, we demonstrate that our model output enables analysis of Decoupled Land-Use Change Scenarios (DLUCS): the Biome-BGC data products at a national or regional level can be re

Malaria and global change: Insights, uncertainties and possible surprises

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Martin, P.H.; Steel, A.

Malaria may change with global change. Indeed, global change may affect malaria risk and malaria epidemiology. Malaria risk may change in response to a greenhouse warming; malaria epidemiology, in response to the social, economic, and political developments which a greenhouse warming may trigger. To date, malaria receptivity and epidemiology futures have been explored within the context of equilibrium studies. Equilibrium studies of climate change postulate an equilibrium present climate (the starting point) and a doubled-carbon dioxide climate (the end point), simulate conditions in both instances, and compare the two. What happens while climate changes, i.e., between the starting point andmore » the end point, is ignored. The present paper focuses on malaria receptivity and addresses what equilibrium studies miss, namely transient malaria dynamics.« less

Globalization and the Changing Epidemiology of Hepatitis A Virus.

PubMed

Jacobsen, Kathryn H

2018-03-02

Increased economic interdependence, social integration, and other aspects of globalization are contributing to significant changes in hepatitis A epidemiology. Globally, the incidence of hepatitis A virus (HAV) infection is decreasing, the age at midpoint of population immunity (AMPI) is increasing, and the proportion of symptomatic cases is increasing as the average age at infection increases. In low-income countries, HAV remains endemic but improved water and sanitation systems are reducing transmission rates among young children. In high-income countries, most adults remain susceptible to HAV and foodborne outbreaks are becoming more frequent. Middle-income countries have diverse epidemiological profiles, and they play important roles in the global spread of HAV through international trade and travel. Future changes in the epidemiology of hepatitis A will be heavily influenced by globalization processes. Copyright © 2018 Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press; all rights reserved.

Performance of a rigid and a flexible adhesive in lumber joints subjected to moisture content changes

Treesearch

G. P. Krueger; R. F. Blomquist

1964-01-01

Experimental work was undertaken to investigate the extent and magnitude of deterioration that can occur in typical plywood-to-lumber glue joints subjected to stresses resulting from changes in the moisture content of the wood, and to compare the performance of a somewhat flexible or deformable adhesive to that of a rigid adhesive in these joints. Results showed that...

Surfing Global Change: Negotiating Sustainable Solutions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ahamer, Gilbert

2006-01-01

SURFING GLOBAL CHANGE (SGC) serves as a procedural shell for attaining sustainable solutions for any interdisciplinary issue and is intended for use in advanced university courses. The participants' activities evolve through five levels from individual argumentation to molding one's own views for the "common good." The paradigm of…

Experimental joint immobilization in guinea pigs. Effects on the knee joint

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marcondesdesouza, J. P.; Machado, F. F.; Sesso, A.; Valeri, V.

1980-01-01

In young and adult guinea pigs, the aftermath experimentally induced by the immobilization of the knee joint in hyperextended forced position was studied. Joint immobilization which varied from one to nine weeks was attained by plaster. Eighty knee joints were examined macro and microscopically. Findings included: (1) muscular hypotrophy and joint stiffness in all animals, directly proportional to the length of immobilization; (2) haemoarthrosis in the first week; (3) intra-articular fibrous tissue proliferation ending up with fibrous ankylosis; (4) hyaline articular cartilage erosions; (5) various degrees of destructive menisci changes. A tentative explanation of the fibrous tissue proliferation and of the cartilage changes is offered.

Crafting continuity and change in Saudi society: Joint parent-youth transition-to-adulthood projects.

PubMed

Khalifa, Hind; Alnuaim, Aziza A; Young, Richard A; Marshall, Sheila K; Popadiuk, Natalee

2018-02-01

Little is known about the transition to adulthood in traditional, developing countries such as Saudi Arabia. Previous research in other countries has revealed the importance of considering parents' support during the transition to adulthood. Thus, the purpose of this research was to examine how two generations negotiated the transition to adulthood. We asked the research question, What are the joint projects in which parents and youth plan and act on their plans for the youth's future? We used the action project method, an established qualitative approach, to answer these questions by observing the joint conversations of 14 parent and youth dyads. Our results provided evidence of an overarching higher level goal, or intentional framework, of crafting generational change and continuity within which participants' joint projects were embedded. Joint projects were organized into three groups: (a) negotiating educational and career futures, (b) promoting gender roles and marriage, and (c) shaping independence. Copyright © 2017 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. All rights reserved.

Climatic change controls productivity variation in global grasslands

PubMed Central

Gao, Qingzhu; Zhu, Wenquan; Schwartz, Mark W.; Ganjurjav, Hasbagan; Wan, Yunfan; Qin, Xiaobo; Ma, Xin; Williamson, Matthew A.; Li, Yue

2016-01-01

Detection and identification of the impacts of climate change on ecosystems have been core issues in climate change research in recent years. In this study, we compared average annual values of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) with theoretical net primary productivity (NPP) values based on temperature and precipitation to determine the effect of historic climate change on global grassland productivity from 1982 to 2011. Comparison of trends in actual productivity (NDVI) with climate-induced potential productivity showed that the trends in average productivity in nearly 40% of global grassland areas have been significantly affected by climate change. The contribution of climate change to variability in grassland productivity was 15.2–71.2% during 1982–2011. Climate change contributed significantly to long-term trends in grassland productivity mainly in North America, central Eurasia, central Africa, and Oceania; these regions will be more sensitive to future climate change impacts. The impacts of climate change on variability in grassland productivity were greater in the Western Hemisphere than the Eastern Hemisphere. Confirmation of the observed trends requires long-term controlled experiments and multi-model ensembles to reduce uncertainties and explain mechanisms. PMID:27243565

Global Change: A View from Space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.

2003-01-01

In this talk, I will discuss the fundamental science and society problems associated with global change, with an emphasis on the view from space. I will provide an overview of the vision and activities of the World Climate Research Program in the next two decades. Then I will show regional climate changes and environmental problems in the East Asian region, such as biomass burning, urban pollutions, yellow sand, and their possible interaction with the Asian monsoon, particularly over Southern China.

Global Change and the Function and Distribution of Wetlands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Middleton, Beth A.

2012-01-01

The Global Change Ecology and Wetlands book series will highlight the latest research from the world leaders in the field of climate change in wetlands. Global Change and the Function and Distribution of Wetlands highlights information of importance to wetland ecologists.  The chapters include syntheses of international studies on the effects of drought on function and regeneration in wetlands, sea level rise and the distribution of mangrove swamps, former distributions of swamp species and future lessons from paleoecology, and shifts in atmospheric emissions across geographical regions in wetlands.  Overall, the book will contribute to a better understanding of the potential effects of climate change on world wetland distribution and function.

Joint CO2 and CH4 accountability for global warming.

PubMed

Smith, Kirk R; Desai, Manish A; Rogers, Jamesine V; Houghton, Richard A

2013-07-30

We propose a transparent climate debt index incorporating both methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. We develop national historic emissions databases for both greenhouse gases to 2005, justifying 1950 as the starting point for global perspectives. We include CO2 emissions from fossil sources [CO2(f)], as well as, in a separate analysis, land use change and forestry. We calculate the CO2(f) and CH4 remaining in the atmosphere in 2005 from 205 countries using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fourth Assessment Report impulse response functions. We use these calculations to estimate the fraction of remaining global emissions due to each country, which is applied to total radiative forcing in 2005 to determine the combined climate debt from both greenhouse gases in units of milliwatts per square meter per country or microwatts per square meter per person, a metric we term international natural debt (IND). Australia becomes the most indebted large country per capita because of high CH4 emissions, overtaking the United States, which is highest for CO2(f). The differences between the INDs of developing and developed countries decline but remain large. We use IND to assess the relative reduction in IND from choosing between CO2(f) and CH4`control measures and to contrast the imposed versus experienced health impacts from climate change. Based on 2005 emissions, the same hypothetical impact on world 2050 IND could be achieved by decreasing CH4 emissions by 46% as stopping CO2 emissions entirely, but with substantial differences among countries, implying differential optimal strategies. Adding CH4 shifts the basic narrative about differential international accountability for climate change.

INTRODUCTION: Anticipated changes in the global atmospheric water cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allan, Richard P.; Liepert, Beate G.

2010-06-01

The atmospheric branch of the water cycle, although containing just a tiny fraction of the Earth's total water reserves, presents a crucial interface between the physical climate (such as large-scale rainfall patterns) and the ecosystems upon which human societies ultimately depend. Because of the central importance of water in the Earth system, the question of how the water cycle is changing, and how it may alter in future as a result of anthropogenic changes, present one of the greatest challenges of this century. The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report on Climate Change and Water (Bates et al 2008) highlighted the increasingly strong evidence of change in the global water cycle and associated environmental consequences. It is of critical importance to climate prediction and adaptation strategies that key processes in the atmospheric water cycle are precisely understood and determined, from evaporation at the surface of the ocean, transport by the atmosphere, condensation as cloud and eventual precipitation, and run-off through rivers following interaction with the land surface, sub-surface, ice, snow and vegetation. The purpose of this special focus issue of Environmental Research Letters on anticipated changes in the global atmospheric water cycle is to consolidate the recent substantial advances in understanding past, present and future changes in the global water cycle through evidence built upon theoretical understanding, backed up by observations and borne out by climate model simulations. Thermodynamic rises in water vapour provide a central constraint, as discussed in a guest editorial by Bengtsson (2010). Theoretical implications of the Clausius-Clapeyron equation are presented by O'Gorman and Muller (2010) and with reference to a simple model (Sherwood 2010) while observed humidity changes confirm these anticipated responses at the land and ocean surface (Willett et al 2008). Rises in low-level moisture are thought to fuel an

Global warming /climate change: Involving students using local example.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Isiorho, S. A.

2016-12-01

The current political climate has made it apparent that the general public does not believe in global warming. Also, there appears to be some confusion between global warming and climate change; global warming is one aspect of climate change. Most scientists believe there is climate change and global warming, although, there is still doubt among students on global warming. Some upper level undergraduate students are required to conduct water level/temperature measurements as part of their course grade. In addition to students having their individual projects, the various classes also utilize a well field within a wetland on campus to conduct group projects. Twelve wells in the well field on campus are used regularly by students to measure the depth of groundwater, the temperature of the waters and other basic water chemistry parameters like pH, conductivity and total dissolved solid (TDS) as part of the class group project. The data collected by each class is added to data from previous classes. Students work together as a group to interpret the data. More than 100 students have participated in this venture for more than 10 years of the four upper level courses: hydrogeology, environmental and urban geology, environmental conservation and wetlands. The temperature trend shows the seasonal variation as one would expect, but it also shows an upward trend (warming). These data demonstrate a change in climate and warming. Thus, the students participated in data collection, learn to write report and present their result to their peers in the classrooms.

Earth's changing global atmospheric energy cycle in response to climate change

PubMed Central

Pan, Yefeng; Li, Liming; Jiang, Xun; Li, Gan; Zhang, Wentao; Wang, Xinyue; Ingersoll, Andrew P.

2017-01-01

The Lorenz energy cycle is widely used to investigate atmospheres and climates on planets. However, the long-term temporal variations of such an energy cycle have not yet been explored. Here we use three independent meteorological data sets from the modern satellite era, to examine the temporal characteristics of the Lorenz energy cycle of Earth's global atmosphere in response to climate change. The total mechanical energy of the global atmosphere basically remains constant with time, but the global-average eddy energies show significant positive trends. The spatial investigations suggest that these positive trends are concentrated in the Southern Hemisphere. Significant positive trends are also found in the conversion, generation and dissipation rates of energies. The positive trends in the dissipation rates of kinetic energies suggest that the efficiency of the global atmosphere as a heat engine increased during the modern satellite era. PMID:28117324

Towards monitoring land-cover and land-use changes at a global scale: the global land survey 2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gutman, G.; Byrnes, Raymond A.; Masek, J.; Covington, S.; Justice, C.; Franks, S.; Headley, Rachel

2008-01-01

Land cover is a critical component of the Earth system, infl uencing land-atmosphere interactions, greenhouse gas fl uxes, ecosystem health, and availability of food, fi ber, and energy for human populations. The recent Integrated Global Observations of Land (IGOL) report calls for the generation of maps documenting global land cover at resolutions between 10m and 30m at least every fi ve years (Townshend et al., in press). Moreover, despite 35 years of Landsat observations, there has not been a unifi ed global analysis of land-cover trends nor has there been a global assessment of land-cover change at Landsat-like resolution. Since the 1990s, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) have supported development of data sets based on global Landsat observations (Tucker et al., 2004). These land survey data sets, usually referred to as GeoCover ™, provide global, orthorectifi ed, typically cloud-free Landsat imagery centered on the years 1975, 1990, and 2000, with a preference for leaf-on conditions. Collectively, these data sets provided a consistent set of observations to assess land-cover changes at a decadal scale. These data are freely available via the Internet from the USGS Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) (see http://earthexplorer.usgs.gov or http://glovis.usgs.gov). This has resulted in unprecedented downloads of data, which are widely used in scientifi c studies of land-cover change (e.g., Boone et al., 2007; Harris et al., 2005; Hilbert, 2006; Huang et al. 2007; Jantz et al., 2005, Kim et al., 2007; Leimgruber, 2005; Masek et al., 2006). NASA and USGS are continuing to support land-cover change research through the development of GLS2005 - an additional global Landsat assessment circa 20051 . Going beyond the earlier initiatives, this data set will establish a baseline for monitoring changes on a 5-year interval and will pave the way toward continuous global land

Global Climate Change and NEPA: The Difficulty with Cumulative Impacts Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-05-18

This paper will provide a survey of the current requirements under the law for addressing global climate change in NEPA documents, along with various...methodologies for quantifying the potential global climate change impacts of federal actions subject to NEPA.

Global Terrestrial Patterns of Precipitation Change under a Warming Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, R.

2017-12-01

Terrestrial global warming has occurred over the last century, especially since the 1950s. This study analyzes changes in global terrestrial precipitation patterns in period of 1950-2010 in an attempt to identify the influence of climate change on precipitation. The results indicate that there is no significant change globally or across latitude bands; nevertheless significant regional differences in precipitation changes are identified. The lack of a change in precipitation levels, or precipitation balance, at both the global and latitudinal band scales is a result of offsetting by opposing precipitation changes at the regional scales. Clear opposing precipitation change patterns appeared in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude band (NHM). Significant increases in precipitation were distributed throughout the western extent of NHM, including the North America, Europe and west of Central Asia, while decreases were observed over the eastern extent, namely, East Asia. A dynamical adjustment methodology was applied to precipitation data, which could identify the roles of atmospheric circulation (dynamic) and the residual (thermodynamic) forcing played in generating the opposing regional precipitation changes in the NHM. Distinct different changes of dynamic and thermodynamic precipitation were found in different regions. Increased precipitation in North America and southern Europe were caused by thermodynamic precipitation, while the dynamic precipitation presented decreased trend due to the positive sea level pressure trend. However, in northern Europe and west of Central Asia, dynamic and thermodynamic precipitation both contributed to the increased precipitation, but thermodynamic precipitation had larger amplitude. In East Asia, the decreased precipitation was a result of simultaneous decrease in dynamic and thermodynamic precipitation.

Increasing Diversity in Global Climate Change Research for Undergraduates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, L. P.; Marchese, P.; Carlson, B. E.; Howard, A. M.; Peteet, D. M.; Rosenzweig, C.; Druyan, L. M.; Fulakeza, M.; Gaffin, S.; Austin, S. A.; Cheung, T. D.; Damas, M. C.; Boxe, C.; Prince, T.; Ng, C.; Frost, J.

2014-12-01

Global Climate Change and the ability to predict the effects of forcings and feedback mechanisms on global and local climate are critical to the survival of the inhabitants of planet Earth. It is therefore important to motivate students to continue their studies towards advanced degrees and pursue careers related to climate change. This is best accomplished by involving undergraduates in global climate change research. This Research Experience for Undergraduates (REU) initiative is based at the City University of New York (CUNY) and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), and is supported by NASA and NSF. Mentors for the primarily summer research experiences include CUNY faculty and GISS scientists. Research topics include the Wetland Carbon Project, The Cooling Power Of Urban Vegetation, Internal Ocean Mixing, El Niño Southern Oscillation, Pollution Transport and Tropospheric Ozone. Students are recruited from CUNY colleges and other colleges and universities. The program maintains an emphasis on under-represented minorities and females. Approximately sixty percent of the undergraduate students are under-represented minorities and forty percent are female. The project is supported by NSF award AGS-1359293 REU Site: CUNY/GISS Center for Global Climate Research.

High-resolution mapping of global surface water and its long-term changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pekel, J. F.; Cottam, A.; Gorelick, N.; Belward, A.

2016-12-01

The location and persistence of surface water is both affected by climate and human activity and affects climate, biological diversity and human wellbeing. Global datasets documenting surface water location and seasonality have been produced but measuring long-term changes at high resolution remains a challenge.To address the dynamic nature of water, the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC), working with the Google Earth Engine (GEE) team has processed each single pixel acquired by Landsat 5, 7, and 8 between 16th March 1984 to 10th October 2015 (> 3.000.000 Landsat scenes, representing > 1823 Terabytes of data).The produced dataset record months and years when water was present across 32 year, were occurrence changed and what form changes took in terms of seasonality and persistence, and document intra-annual persistence, inter-annual variability, and trends.This validated dataset shows that impacts of climate change and climate oscillations on surface water occurrence can be measured and that evidence can be gathered showing how surface water is altered by human activities.Freely available, we anticipate that this dataset will provide valuable information to those working in areas linked to security of water supply for agriculture, industry and human consumption, for assessing water-related disaster reduction and recovery and for the study of waterborne pollution and disease spread. The maps will also improve surface boundary condition setting in climate and weather models, improve carbon emissions estimates, inform regional climate change impact studies, delimit wetlands for biodiversity and determine desertification trends. Issues such as dam building (and less widespread dam removal), disappearing rivers, the geopolitics of water distribution and coastal erosion are also addressed.

Early in situ changes in chondrocyte biomechanical responses due to a partial meniscectomy in the lateral compartment of the mature rabbit knee joint.

PubMed

Fick, J M; P Ronkainen, A; Madden, R; Sawatsky, A; Tiitu, V; Herzog, W; Korhonen, R K

2016-12-08

We determined the biomechanical responses of chondrocytes to indentation at specific locations within the superficial zone of cartilage (i.e. patellar, femoral groove, femoral condylar and tibial plateau sites) taken from female New Zealand white rabbits three days after a partial meniscectomy in the lateral compartment of a knee joint. Confocal laser scanning microscopy combined with a custom indentation system was utilized to image chondrocyte responses at sites taken from ten contralateral and experimental knee joints. Cell volume, height, width and depth changes, global, local axial and transverse strains and Young׳s moduli were determined. Histological assessment was performed and proteoglycan content from the superficial zone of each site was determined. Relative to contralateral group cells, patellar, femoral groove and lateral femoral condyle cells in the experimental group underwent greater volume decreases (p < 0.05), due to smaller lateral expansions (with greater decreases in cell height only for the lateral femoral condyle cells; p < 0.05) whereas medial femoral and medial tibial plateau cells underwent smaller volume decreases (p < 0.05), due to less deformation in cell height (p < 0.05). Proteoglycan content was reduced in the patellar (p > 0.05), femoral groove, medial femoral condyle and medial tibial plateau experimental sites (p < 0.05). The findings suggest: (i) cell biomechanical responses to cartilage loading in the rabbit knee joint can become altered as early as 3 days after a partial meniscectomy, (ii) are site-specific, and (iii) occur before alterations in tissue mechanics or changes detectable with histology. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Phylogenetic responses of forest trees to global change.

PubMed

Senior, John K; Schweitzer, Jennifer A; O'Reilly-Wapstra, Julianne; Chapman, Samantha K; Steane, Dorothy; Langley, Adam; Bailey, Joseph K

2013-01-01

In a rapidly changing biosphere, approaches to understanding the ecology and evolution of forest species will be critical to predict and mitigate the effects of anthropogenic global change on forest ecosystems. Utilizing 26 forest species in a factorial experiment with two levels each of atmospheric CO2 and soil nitrogen, we examined the hypothesis that phylogeny would influence plant performance in response to elevated CO2 and nitrogen fertilization. We found highly idiosyncratic responses at the species level. However, significant, among-genetic lineage responses were present across a molecularly determined phylogeny, indicating that past evolutionary history may have an important role in the response of whole genetic lineages to future global change. These data imply that some genetic lineages will perform well and that others will not, depending upon the environmental context.

Changing recruitment capacity in global fish stocks

PubMed Central

Britten, Gregory L.; Dowd, Michael; Worm, Boris

2016-01-01

Marine fish and invertebrates are shifting their regional and global distributions in response to climate change, but it is unclear whether their productivity is being affected as well. Here we tested for time-varying trends in biological productivity parameters across 262 fish stocks of 127 species in 39 large marine ecosystems and high-seas areas (hereafter LMEs). This global meta-analysis revealed widespread changes in the relationship between spawning stock size and the production of juvenile offspring (recruitment), suggesting fundamental biological change in fish stock productivity at early life stages. Across regions, we estimate that average recruitment capacity has declined at a rate approximately equal to 3% of the historical maximum per decade. However, we observed large variability among stocks and regions; for example, highly negative trends in the North Atlantic contrast with more neutral patterns in the North Pacific. The extent of biological change in each LME was significantly related to observed changes in phytoplankton chlorophyll concentration and the intensity of historical overfishing in that ecosystem. We conclude that both environmental changes and chronic overfishing have already affected the productive capacity of many stocks at the recruitment stage of the life cycle. These results provide a baseline for ecosystem-based fisheries management and may help adjust expectations for future food production from the oceans. PMID:26668368

Chronic In Vivo Load Alteration Induces Degenerative Changes in the Rat Tibiofemoral Joint

PubMed Central

Roemhildt, M. L.; Beynnon, B. D.; Gauthier, A. E.; Gardner-Morse, M.; Ertem, F.; Badger, G. J.

2012-01-01

Objective We investigated the relationship between the magnitude and duration of sustained compressive load alteration and the development of degenerative changes in the rat tibiofemoral joint. Methods A varus loading device was attached to the left hind limb of mature rats to apply increased compression to the medial compartment and decreased compression to the lateral compartment of the tibiofemoral joint of either 0% or 100% body weight for 0, 6 or 20 weeks. Compartment-specific assessment of the tibial plateaus included biomechanical measures (articular cartilage aggregate modulus, permeability and Poisson’s ratio, and subchondral bone modulus) and histological assessments (articular cartilage, calcified cartilage, and subchondral bone thicknesses, degenerative scoring parameters, and articular cartilage cellularity). Results Increased compression in the medial compartment produced significant degenerative changes consistent with the development of osteoarthritis including a progressive decrease in cartilage aggregate modulus (43% and 77% at 6 and 20 weeks), diminished cellularity (38% and 51% at 6 and 20 weeks), and increased histological degeneration. At 20 weeks, medial compartment articular cartilage thickness deceased 30% while subchondral bone thickness increased 32% and subchondral bone modulus increased 99%. Decreased compression in the lateral compartment increased calcified cartilage thickness, diminished region-specific subchondral bone thickness and revealed trends for reduced cellularity and decreased articular cartilage thickness at 20 weeks. Conclusions Altered chronic joint loading produced degenerative changes consistent with those observed clinically with the development of osteoarthritis and may replicate the slow development of non-traumatic osteoarthritis in which mechanical loads play a primary etiological role. PMID:23123358

Global change in the trophic functioning of marine food webs.

PubMed

Maureaud, Aurore; Gascuel, Didier; Colléter, Mathieu; Palomares, Maria L D; Du Pontavice, Hubert; Pauly, Daniel; Cheung, William W L

2017-01-01

The development of fisheries in the oceans, and other human drivers such as climate warming, have led to changes in species abundance, assemblages, trophic interactions, and ultimately in the functioning of marine food webs. Here, using a trophodynamic approach and global databases of catches and life history traits of marine species, we tested the hypothesis that anthropogenic ecological impacts may have led to changes in the global parameters defining the transfers of biomass within the food web. First, we developed two indicators to assess such changes: the Time Cumulated Indicator (TCI) measuring the residence time of biomass within the food web, and the Efficiency Cumulated Indicator (ECI) quantifying the fraction of secondary production reaching the top of the trophic chain. Then, we assessed, at the large marine ecosystem scale, the worldwide change of these two indicators over the 1950-2010 time-periods. Global trends were identified and cluster analyses were used to characterize the variability of trends between ecosystems. Results showed that the most common pattern over the study period is a global decrease in TCI, while the ECI indicator tends to increase. Thus, changes in species assemblages would induce faster and apparently more efficient biomass transfers in marine food webs. Results also suggested that the main driver of change over that period had been the large increase in fishing pressure. The largest changes occurred in ecosystems where 'fishing down the marine food web' are most intensive.

Global change in the trophic functioning of marine food webs

PubMed Central

Gascuel, Didier; Colléter, Mathieu; Palomares, Maria L. D.; Du Pontavice, Hubert; Pauly, Daniel; Cheung, William W. L.

2017-01-01

The development of fisheries in the oceans, and other human drivers such as climate warming, have led to changes in species abundance, assemblages, trophic interactions, and ultimately in the functioning of marine food webs. Here, using a trophodynamic approach and global databases of catches and life history traits of marine species, we tested the hypothesis that anthropogenic ecological impacts may have led to changes in the global parameters defining the transfers of biomass within the food web. First, we developed two indicators to assess such changes: the Time Cumulated Indicator (TCI) measuring the residence time of biomass within the food web, and the Efficiency Cumulated Indicator (ECI) quantifying the fraction of secondary production reaching the top of the trophic chain. Then, we assessed, at the large marine ecosystem scale, the worldwide change of these two indicators over the 1950–2010 time-periods. Global trends were identified and cluster analyses were used to characterize the variability of trends between ecosystems. Results showed that the most common pattern over the study period is a global decrease in TCI, while the ECI indicator tends to increase. Thus, changes in species assemblages would induce faster and apparently more efficient biomass transfers in marine food webs. Results also suggested that the main driver of change over that period had been the large increase in fishing pressure. The largest changes occurred in ecosystems where ‘fishing down the marine food web’ are most intensive. PMID:28800358

Correlation between hindfoot joint three-dimensional kinematics and the changes of the medial arch angle in stage II posterior tibial tendon dysfunction flatfoot.

PubMed

Zhang, Yi-Jun; Xu, Jian; Wang, Yue; Lin, Xiang-Jin; Ma, Xin

2015-02-01

The aim of this study was to explore the correlation between the kinematics of the hindfoot joint and the medial arch angle change in stage II posterior tibial tendon dysfunction flatfoot three-dimensionally under loading. Computed tomography (CT) scans of 12 healthy feet and 12 feet with stage II posterior tibial tendon dysfunction flatfoot were taken both in non- and full-body-weight-bearing condition. The CT images of the hindfoot bones were reconstructed into three-dimensional models with Mimics and Geomagic reverse engineering software. The three-dimensional changes of the hindfoot joint were calculated to determine their correlation to the medial longitudinal arch angle. The medial arch angle change was larger in stage II posterior tibial tendon dysfunction flatfoot compared to that in healthy foot under loading. The rotation and translation of the talocalcaneal joint, the talonavicular joint and the calcanocuboid joint had little influence on the change of the medial arch angle in healthy foot. However, the eversion of the talocalcaneal joint, the proximal translation of the calcaneus relative to the talus and the dorsiflexion of talonavicular joint could increase the medial arch angle in stage II posterior tibial tendon dysfunction flatfoot under loading. Joint instability occurred in patients with stage II posterior tibial tendon dysfunction flatfoot under loading. Limitation of over movement of the talocalcaneal joint and the talonavicular joint may help correct the medial longitudinal arch in stage II posterior tibial tendon dysfunction flatfoot. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Preparation time influences ankle and knee joint control during dynamic change of direction movements.

PubMed

Fuerst, Patrick; Gollhofer, Albert; Gehring, Dominic

2017-04-01

The influence of preparation time on ankle joint biomechanics during highly dynamic movements is largely unknown. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of limited preparation time on ankle joint loading during highly dynamic run-and-cut movements. Thirteen male basketball players performed 45°-sidestep-cutting and 180°-turning manoeuvres in reaction to light signals which appeared during the approach run. Both movements were executed under (1) an easy condition, in which the light signal appeared very early, (2) a medium condition and (3) a hard condition with very little time to prepare the movements. Maximum ankle inversion angles, moments and velocities during ground contact, as well as EMG signals of three lower extremity muscles, were analysed. In 180°-turning movements, reduced preparation time led to significantly increased maximum ankle inversion velocities. Muscular activation levels, however, did not change. Increased inversion velocities, without accompanying changes in muscular activation, may have the potential to destabilise the ankle joint when less preparation time is available. This may result in a higher injury risk during turning movements and should therefore be considered in ankle injury research and the aetiology of ankle sprains.

Agile Data Management with the Global Change Information System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duggan, B.; Aulenbach, S.; Tilmes, C.; Goldstein, J.

2013-12-01

We describe experiences applying agile software development techniques to the realm of data management during the development of the Global Change Information System (GCIS), a web service and API for authoritative global change information under development by the US Global Change Research Program. Some of the challenges during system design and implementation have been : (1) balancing the need for a rigorous mechanism for ensuring information quality with the realities of large data sets whose contents are often in flux, (2) utilizing existing data to inform decisions about the scope and nature of new data, and (3) continuously incorporating new knowledge and concepts into a relational data model. The workflow for managing the content of the system has much in common with the development of the system itself. We examine various aspects of agile software development and discuss whether or how we have been able to use them for data curation as well as software development.

Climate Change, Globalization and Geopolitics in the New Maritime Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brigham, L. W.

2011-12-01

Early in the 21st century a confluence of climate change, globalization and geopolitics is shaping the future of the maritime Arctic. This nexus is also fostering greater linkage of the Arctic to the rest of the planet. Arctic sea ice is undergoing a historic transformation of thinning, extent reduction in all seasons, and reduction in the area of multiyear ice in the central Arctic Ocean. Global Climate Model simulations of Arctic sea ice indicate multiyear ice could disappear by 2030 for a short period of time each summer. These physical changes invite greater marine access, longer seasons of navigation, and potential, summer trans-Arctic voyages. As a result, enhanced marine safety, environmental protection, and maritime security measures are under development. Coupled with climate change as a key driver of regional change is the current and future integration of the Arctic's natural wealth with global markets (oil, gas and hard minerals). Abundant freshwater in the Arctic could also be a future commodity of value. Recent events such as drilling for hydrocarbons off Greenland's west coast and the summer marine transport of natural resources from the Russian Arctic to China across the top of Eurasia are indicators of greater global economic ties to the Arctic. Plausible Arctic futures indicate continued integration with global issues and increased complexity of a range of regional economic, security and environmental challenges.

Climate change. A global threat to cardiopulmonary health.

PubMed

Rice, Mary B; Thurston, George D; Balmes, John R; Pinkerton, Kent E

2014-03-01

Recent changes in the global climate system have resulted in excess mortality and morbidity, particularly among susceptible individuals with preexisting cardiopulmonary disease. These weather patterns are projected to continue and intensify as a result of rising CO2 levels, according to the most recent projections by climate scientists. In this Pulmonary Perspective, motivated by the American Thoracic Society Committees on Environmental Health Policy and International Health, we review the global human health consequences of projected changes in climate for which there is a high level of confidence and scientific evidence of health effects, with a focus on cardiopulmonary health. We discuss how many of the climate-related health effects will disproportionally affect people from economically disadvantaged parts of the world, who contribute relatively little to CO2 emissions. Last, we discuss the financial implications of climate change solutions from a public health perspective and argue for a harmonized approach to clean air and climate change policies.

Global climate change: Social and economic research issues

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rice, M.; Snow, J.; Jacobson, H.

This workshop was designed to bring together a group of scholars, primarily from the social sciences, to explore research that might help in dealing with global climate change. To illustrate the state of present understanding, it seemed useful to focus this workshop on three broad questions that are involved in coping with climate change. These are: (1) How can the anticipated economic costs and benefits of climate change be identified; (2) How can the impacts of climate change be adjusted to or avoided; (3) What previously studied models are available for institutional management of the global environment? The resulting discussionsmore » may (1) identify worthwhile avenues for further social science research, (2) help develop feedback for natural scientists about research information from this domain needed by social scientists, and (3) provide policymakers with the sort of relevant research information from the social science community that is currently available. Individual papers are processed separately for the database.« less

Globalization and Higher Education Organizational Change: A Framework for Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vaira, Massimiliano

2004-01-01

The aim of this article is to outline a theoretical framework to address Higher Education organizational change in a globalized and globalizing age. The paper will start with a brief description of trends characterizing the global landscape and their relationships with Higher Education policies and institutions. Although these trends are well…

Sixth-Grade Students' Progress in Understanding the Mechanisms of Global Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Visintainer, Tammie; Linn, Marcia

2015-04-01

Developing solutions for complex issues such as global climate change requires an understanding of the mechanisms involved. This study reports on the impact of a technology-enhanced unit designed to improve understanding of global climate change, its mechanisms, and their relationship to everyday energy use. Global Climate Change, implemented in the Web-based Inquiry Science Environment (WISE), engages sixth-grade students in conducting virtual investigations using NetLogo models to foster an understanding of core mechanisms including the greenhouse effect. Students then test how the greenhouse effect is enhanced by everyday energy use. This study draws on three data sources: (1) pre- and post-unit interviews, (2) analysis of embedded assessments following virtual investigations, and (3) contrasting cases of two students (normative vs. non-normative understanding of the greenhouse effect). Results show the value of using virtual investigations for teaching the mechanisms associated with global climate change. Interviews document that students hold a wide range of ideas about the mechanisms driving global climate change. Investigations with models help students use evidence-based reasoning to distinguish their ideas. Results show that understanding the greenhouse effect offers a foundation for building connections between everyday energy use and increases in global temperature. An impediment to establishing coherent understanding was the persistence of an alternative conception about ozone as an explanation for climate change. These findings illustrate the need for regular revision of curriculum based on classroom trials. We discuss key design features of models and instructional revisions that can transform the teaching and learning of global climate change.

A Wolff in sheep's clothing: trabecular bone adaptation in response to changes in joint loading orientation.

PubMed

Barak, Meir M; Lieberman, Daniel E; Hublin, Jean-Jacques

2011-12-01

This study tests Wolff's law of trabecular bone adaptation by examining if induced changes in joint loading orientation cause corresponding adjustments in trabecular orientation. Two groups of sheep were exercised at a trot, 15 min/day for 34 days on an inclined (7°) or level (0°) treadmills. Incline trotting caused the sheep to extend their tarsal joints by 3-4.5° during peak loading (P<0.01) but has no effect on carpal joint angle (P=0.984). Additionally, tarsal joint angle in the incline group sheep were maintained more extended throughout the day using elevated platform shoes on their forelimbs. A third "sedentary group" group did not run but wore platform shoes throughout the day. As predicted by Wolff's law, trabecular orientation in the distal tibia (tarsal joint) were more obtuse by 2.7 to 4.3° in the incline group compared to the level group; trabecular orientation was not significantly different in the sedentary and level groups. In addition, trabecular orientations in the distal radius (carpal joint) of the sedentary, level and incline groups did not differ between groups, and were aligned almost parallel to the radius long axis, corresponding to the almost straight carpal joint angle at peak loading. Measurements of other trabecular bone parameters revealed additional responses to loading, including significantly higher bone volume fraction (BV/TV), Trabecular number (Tb.N) and trabecular thickness (Tb.Th), lower trabecular spacing (Tb.Sp), and less rod-shaped trabeculae (higher structure model index, SMI) in the exercised than sedentary sheep. Overall, these results demonstrate that trabecular bone dynamically adjusts and realigns itself in very precise relation to changes in peak loading direction, indicating that Wolff's law is not only accurate but also highly sensitive. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[The para-clinic investigation of temporo-mandibular joint changes in patients with acromegaly].

PubMed

Morăraşu, C; Burlui, V; Olaru, C; Boza, C; Bortă, C; Morăraşu, G; Brînză, M

2001-01-01

The Acromegaly is an endocrinological disease determined by the hypersecretion of STH in a certain period of the body evolution and it causes the hypertrophy of bones in general and of mandible and cranio-facial bones, determining a disorder due to this development of bones, associated with troubles in the activity of muscles and of the phospho-calcium metabolism. This study was made on a group of 33 acromegaly patients. Their temporo-mandibular joint was investigated by ortopantomography, tomography, computer tomography and scintigraphy. All of these exams shows the changes in temporo-mandibular joint due to the cells hyperactivity determined by the hypersecretion of STH.

Global Change and Forestry: Socioeconomic Studies from the 1994 SOFEW Meeting

Treesearch

Joseph E. de Steiguer; [Technical Editor

1995-01-01

The five papers in this book were originally presented at the 1994 Southern Forest Economic Workers meeting. They discuss the socioeconomic aspect of global climate change on forests. The research represented by the studies will assist decision makers in the formulation of policies concerening global climate change.

Global change and marine communities: alien species and climate change.

PubMed

Occhipinti-Ambrogi, Anna

2007-01-01

Anthropogenic influences on the biosphere since the advent of the industrial age are increasingly causing global changes. Climatic change and the rising concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are ranking high in scientific and public agendas, and other components of global change are also frequently addressed, among which are the introductions of non indigenous species (NIS) in biogeographic regions well separated from the donor region, often followed by spectacular invasions. In the marine environment, both climatic change and spread of alien species have been studied extensively; this review is aimed at examining the main responses of ecosystems to climatic change, taking into account the increasing importance of biological invasions. Some general principles on NIS introductions in the marine environment are recalled, such as the importance of propagule pressure and of development stages during the time course of an invasion. Climatic change is known to affect many ecological properties; it interacts also with NIS in many possible ways. Direct (proximate) effects on individuals and populations of altered physical-chemical conditions are distinguished from indirect effects on emergent properties (species distribution, diversity, and production). Climatically driven changes may affect both local dispersal mechanisms, due to the alteration of current patterns, and competitive interactions between NIS and native species, due to the onset of new thermal optima and/or different carbonate chemistry. As well as latitudinal range expansions of species correlated with changing temperature conditions, and effects on species richness and the correlated extinction of native species, some invasions may provoke multiple effects which involve overall ecosystem functioning (material flow between trophic groups, primary production, relative extent of organic material decomposition, extent of benthic-pelagic coupling). Some examples are given, including a special

Dynamic Analyses Including Joints Of Truss Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Belvin, W. Keith

1991-01-01

Method for mathematically modeling joints to assess influences of joints on dynamic response of truss structures developed in study. Only structures with low-frequency oscillations considered; only Coulomb friction and viscous damping included in analysis. Focus of effort to obtain finite-element mathematical models of joints exhibiting load-vs.-deflection behavior similar to measured load-vs.-deflection behavior of real joints. Experiments performed to determine stiffness and damping nonlinearities typical of joint hardware. Algorithm for computing coefficients of analytical joint models based on test data developed to enable study of linear and nonlinear effects of joints on global structural response. Besides intended application to large space structures, applications in nonaerospace community include ground-based antennas and earthquake-resistant steel-framed buildings.

Overview of global climate change and carbon sequestration

Treesearch

Kurt Johnsen

2004-01-01

The potential influence of global climate change on southern forests is uncertain. Outputs of climate change models differ considerably in their projections for precipitation and other variables that affect forests. Forest responses, particularly effects on competition among species, are difficult to assess. Even the responses of relatively simple ecosystems, such as...

An Approach and Framework to Synchronize Joint Exercises and Training with Military Operations

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-06-06

13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 14. ABSTRACT In this dynamic, complex, and uncertain global environment, supporting and conducting joint military...achieved by leveraging a globally networked approach and an integrated framework that shares resources and coordinates activities. A recommended...Intentionally left blank ABSTRACT In this dynamic, complex, and uncertain global environment, supporting and conducting joint military

Pilot Institute on Global Change on Trace Gases and the Biosphere, 1988

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eddy, J. A.; Moore, B.

1998-01-01

Table of Contents: Summary; Background; General Framework for a Series of Institutes on Global Change; The 1988 Pilot Institute on Global Changes: Trace Gases and the Biosphere; Budget; List of Acronyms; and Attachments.

Changes in surgical procedures for acromioclavicular joint dislocation over the past 30 years.

PubMed

Takase, Katsumi; Yamamoto, Kengo

2013-10-01

Generally, surgical treatment is recommended for Rockwood type 5 traumatic acromioclavicular joint dislocations. Since 1980, the authors have performed the modified Dewar procedure, the modified Cadenat procedure, and anatomical reconstruction of the coracoclavicular ligaments for this injury. The goal of this study was to determine the ideal surgical procedure for acromioclavicular joint dislocations by comparing these 3 procedures. The modified Dewar procedure was performed on 55 patients (Dewar group), the modified Cadenat procedure was performed on 73 patients (Cadenat group), and anatomical reconstruction of the coracoclavicular ligaments was performed on 11 patients (reconstruction group). According to the UCLA scoring system, therapeutic results averaged 27.3 points in the Dewar group, 28.2 in the Cadenat group, and 28.4 in the reconstruction group. The incidence of residual subluxation or dislocation in the acromioclavicular joint was evaluated at final radiographic follow-up. Subluxation occurred in 21 patients in the Dewar group, 18 in the Cadenat group, and 3 in the reconstruction group. Dislocation occurred in 3 patients in the Dewar group. Osteoarthritic changes in the acromioclavicular joint occurred in 20 patients in the Dewar group, 9 in the Cadenat group, and 1 in the reconstruction group. The modified Cadenat procedure can provide satisfactory therapeutic results and avoid postoperative failure or loss of reduction compared with the modified Dewar procedure. However, the modified Cadenat procedure does not anatomically restore the coracoclavicular ligaments. Anatomic restoration of both coracoclavicular ligaments can best restore acromioclavicular joint function. Copyright 2013, SLACK Incorporated.

Seventh Joint Meeting of K-J-CaP and CaPSURE: extending the global initiative to improve prostate cancer management

PubMed Central

Akaza, Hideyuki; Kim, Choung Soo; Carroll, Peter; Choi, In Young; Chung, Byung Ha; Cooperberg, Matthew R.; Hirao, Yoshihiko; Hinotsu, Shiro; Horie, Shigeo; Lee, Ji Youl; Namiki, Mikio; Ng, Chi-Fai; Onozawa, Mizuki; Ozono, Seiichiro; Ueno, Satoru; Umbas, Rainy; Ye, Dingwei; Zhu, Gang

2014-01-01

This report summarizes the presentations and discussions that took place at the Seventh Joint Meeting of the Korea–Japan Study Group of Prostate Cancer (K-J-CaP) and the Cancer of the Prostate Strategic Urologic Research Endeavor (CaPSURE) held in Seoul, Korea, in September 2013. The original J-CaP and CaPSURE Joint Initiative has now been established since 2007 and since the initial collaboration between research teams in the United States (US) and Japan, the project has expanded to include several other Asian countries. The objective of the initiative is to analyze and compare data for prostate cancer patients in the participating countries, looking at similarities and differences in patient management and outcomes. Until now the focus has been primarily on data generated within J-CaP and CaPSURE, both large-scale, longitudinal, observational databases of prostate cancer patients in Japan and the US, respectively. This year’s meeting was hosted for the first time in Korea which has recently established its own national database–K-CaP–to add to the wealth of data generated by J-CaP and CaPSURE. As a newly-developed database, K-CaP has also provided a valuable ‘template’ for other countries, such as China and Indonesia, planning to establish their own national databases and this will ultimately allow greater opportunities for international data comparisons. A range of topics was discussed at this Seventh Joint Meeting including comparison of outcomes following androgen deprivation therapy or radical prostatectomy in patients with localized prostate cancer, the use of active surveillance as a treatment option and the triggers for intervention when employing this regimen, patient quality of life during treatment, the impact of comorbidities on outcomes, and a comparison of recent outcomes data between J-CaP and CaPSURE. The participants recognized that prostate cancer was now a global disease and therefore major insights into understanding and improving

Seventh Joint Meeting of K-J-CaP and CaPSURE: extending the global initiative to improve prostate cancer management.

PubMed

Akaza, Hideyuki; Kim, Choung Soo; Carroll, Peter; Choi, In Young; Chung, Byung Ha; Cooperberg, Matthew R; Hirao, Yoshihiko; Hinotsu, Shiro; Horie, Shigeo; Lee, Ji Youl; Namiki, Mikio; Ng, Chi-Fai; Onozawa, Mizuki; Ozono, Seiichiro; Ueno, Satoru; Umbas, Rainy; Ye, Dingwei; Zhu, Gang

2014-01-01

This report summarizes the presentations and discussions that took place at the Seventh Joint Meeting of the Korea-Japan Study Group of Prostate Cancer (K-J-CaP) and the Cancer of the Prostate Strategic Urologic Research Endeavor (CaPSURE) held in Seoul, Korea, in September 2013. The original J-CaP and CaPSURE Joint Initiative has now been established since 2007 and since the initial collaboration between research teams in the United States (US) and Japan, the project has expanded to include several other Asian countries. The objective of the initiative is to analyze and compare data for prostate cancer patients in the participating countries, looking at similarities and differences in patient management and outcomes. Until now the focus has been primarily on data generated within J-CaP and CaPSURE, both large-scale, longitudinal, observational databases of prostate cancer patients in Japan and the US, respectively. This year's meeting was hosted for the first time in Korea which has recently established its own national database-K-CaP-to add to the wealth of data generated by J-CaP and CaPSURE. As a newly-developed database, K-CaP has also provided a valuable 'template' for other countries, such as China and Indonesia, planning to establish their own national databases and this will ultimately allow greater opportunities for international data comparisons. A range of topics was discussed at this Seventh Joint Meeting including comparison of outcomes following androgen deprivation therapy or radical prostatectomy in patients with localized prostate cancer, the use of active surveillance as a treatment option and the triggers for intervention when employing this regimen, patient quality of life during treatment, the impact of comorbidities on outcomes, and a comparison of recent outcomes data between J-CaP and CaPSURE. The participants recognized that prostate cancer was now a global disease and therefore major insights into understanding and improving the

Hands-on Materials for Teaching about Global Climate Change through Graph Interpretation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rule, Audrey C.; Hallagan, Jean E.; Shaffer, Barbara

2008-01-01

Teachers need to address global climate change with students in their classrooms as evidence for consequences from these environmental changes mounts. One way to approach global climate change is through examination of authentic data. Mathematics and science may be integrated by interpreting graphs from the professional literature. This study…

Global Climate Change and Children's Health.

PubMed

Ahdoot, Samantha; Pacheco, Susan E

2015-11-01

Rising global temperature is causing major physical, chemical, and ecological changes across the planet. There is wide consensus among scientific organizations and climatologists that these broad effects, known as climate change, are the result of contemporary human activity. Climate change poses threats to human health, safety, and security. Children are uniquely vulnerable to these threats. The effects of climate change on child health include physical and psychological sequelae of weather disasters, increased heat stress, decreased air quality, altered disease patterns of some climate-sensitive infections, and food, water, and nutrient insecurity in vulnerable regions. Prompt implementation of mitigation and adaptation strategies will protect children against worsening of the problem and its associated health effects. This technical report reviews the nature of climate change and its associated child health effects and supports the recommendations in the accompanying policy statement on climate change and children's health. Copyright © 2015 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Pathways of Understanding: the Interactions of Humanity and Global Environmental Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jacobson, Harold K.; Katzenberger, John; Lousma, Jack; Mooney, Harold A.; Moss, Richard H.; Kuhn, William; Luterbacher, Urs; Wiegandt, Ellen

1992-01-01

How humans, interacting within social systems, affect and are affected by global change is explored. Recognizing the impact human activities have on the environment and responding to the need to document the interactions among human activities, the Consortium for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) commissioned a group of 12 scientists to develop a framework illustrating the key human systems that contribute to global change. This framework, called the Social Process Diagram, will help natural and social scientists, educators, resource managers and policy makers envision and analyze how human systems interact among themselves and with the natural system. The Social Process Diagram consists of the following blocks that constitute the Diagram's structural framework: (1) fund of knowledge and experience; (2) preferences and expectations; (3) factors of production and technology; (4) population and social structure; (5) economic systems; (6) political systems and institutions; and (7) global scale environmental processes. To demonstrate potential ways the Diagram can be used, this document includes 3 hypothetical scenarios of global change issues: global warming and sea level rise; the environmental impact of human population migration; and energy and the environment. These scenarios demonstrate the Diagram's usefulness for visualizing specific processes that might be studied to evaluate a particular global change issues. The scenario also shows that interesting and unanticipated questions may emerge as links are explored between categories on the Diagram.

Significance of aerosol radiative effect in energy balance control on global precipitation change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Suzuki, Kentaroh; Stephens, Graeme L.; Golaz, Jean-Christophe

Historical changes of global precipitation in the 20th century simulated by a climate model are investigated. The results simulated with alternate configurations of cloud microphysics are analyzed in the context of energy balance controls on global precipitation, where the latent heat changes associated with the precipitation change is nearly balanced with changes to atmospheric radiative cooling. The atmospheric radiative cooling is dominated by its clear-sky component, which is found to correlate with changes to both column water vapor and aerosol optical depth (AOD). The water vapor-dependent component of the clear-sky radiative cooling is then found to scale with global temperaturemore » change through the Clausius–Clapeyron relationship. This component results in a tendency of global precipitation increase with increasing temperature at a rate of approximately 2%K -1. Another component of the clear-sky radiative cooling, which is well correlated with changes to AOD, is also found to vary in magnitude among different scenarios with alternate configurations of cloud microphysics that controls the precipitation efficiency, a major factor influencing the aerosol scavenging process that can lead to different aerosol loadings. These results propose how different characteristics of cloud microphysics can cause different aerosol loadings that in turn perturb global energy balance to significantly change global precipitation. This implies a possible coupling of aerosol–cloud interaction with aerosol–radiation interaction in the context of global energy balance.« less

Significance of aerosol radiative effect in energy balance control on global precipitation change

DOE PAGES

Suzuki, Kentaroh; Stephens, Graeme L.; Golaz, Jean-Christophe

2017-10-17

Historical changes of global precipitation in the 20th century simulated by a climate model are investigated. The results simulated with alternate configurations of cloud microphysics are analyzed in the context of energy balance controls on global precipitation, where the latent heat changes associated with the precipitation change is nearly balanced with changes to atmospheric radiative cooling. The atmospheric radiative cooling is dominated by its clear-sky component, which is found to correlate with changes to both column water vapor and aerosol optical depth (AOD). The water vapor-dependent component of the clear-sky radiative cooling is then found to scale with global temperaturemore » change through the Clausius–Clapeyron relationship. This component results in a tendency of global precipitation increase with increasing temperature at a rate of approximately 2%K -1. Another component of the clear-sky radiative cooling, which is well correlated with changes to AOD, is also found to vary in magnitude among different scenarios with alternate configurations of cloud microphysics that controls the precipitation efficiency, a major factor influencing the aerosol scavenging process that can lead to different aerosol loadings. These results propose how different characteristics of cloud microphysics can cause different aerosol loadings that in turn perturb global energy balance to significantly change global precipitation. This implies a possible coupling of aerosol–cloud interaction with aerosol–radiation interaction in the context of global energy balance.« less

Indirect Effects of Global Change: From Physiological and Behavioral Mechanisms to Ecological Consequences.

PubMed

Gunderson, Alex R; Tsukimura, Brian; Stillman, Jonathon H

2017-07-01

A major focus of current ecological research is to understand how global change makes species vulnerable to extirpation. To date, mechanistic ecophysiological analyses of global change vulnerability have focused primarily on the direct effects of changing abiotic conditions on whole-organism physiological traits, such as metabolic rate, locomotor performance, cardiac function, and critical thermal limits. However, species do not live in isolation within their physical environments, and direct effects of climate change are likely to be compounded by indirect effects that result from altered interactions with other species, such as competitors and predators. The Society for Integrative and Comparative Biology 2017 Symposium "Indirect Effects of Global Change: From Physiological and Behavioral Mechanisms to Ecological Consequences" was designed to synthesize multiple approaches to investigating the indirect effects of global change by bringing together researchers that study the indirect effects of global change from multiple perspectives across habitat, type of anthropogenic change, and level of biological organization. Our goal in bringing together researchers from different backgrounds was to foster cross-disciplinary insights into the mechanistic bases and higher-order ecological consequences of indirect effects of global change, and to promote collaboration among fields. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Integrative and Comparative Biology. All rights reserved. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Global climate change--The technology challenge: China

EPA Science Inventory

Population growth and developmental pressures, spawned by an increasing demand for resource intensive goods, foods and services, are altering the planet in ways that threaten the long-term well-being of humans and other species. Global climate change and its associated impacts is...

Global patterns of kelp forest change over the past half-century.

PubMed

Krumhansl, Kira A; Okamoto, Daniel K; Rassweiler, Andrew; Novak, Mark; Bolton, John J; Cavanaugh, Kyle C; Connell, Sean D; Johnson, Craig R; Konar, Brenda; Ling, Scott D; Micheli, Fiorenza; Norderhaug, Kjell M; Pérez-Matus, Alejandro; Sousa-Pinto, Isabel; Reed, Daniel C; Salomon, Anne K; Shears, Nick T; Wernberg, Thomas; Anderson, Robert J; Barrett, Nevell S; Buschmann, Alejandro H; Carr, Mark H; Caselle, Jennifer E; Derrien-Courtel, Sandrine; Edgar, Graham J; Edwards, Matt; Estes, James A; Goodwin, Claire; Kenner, Michael C; Kushner, David J; Moy, Frithjof E; Nunn, Julia; Steneck, Robert S; Vásquez, Julio; Watson, Jane; Witman, Jon D; Byrnes, Jarrett E K

2016-11-29

Kelp forests (Order Laminariales) form key biogenic habitats in coastal regions of temperate and Arctic seas worldwide, providing ecosystem services valued in the range of billions of dollars annually. Although local evidence suggests that kelp forests are increasingly threatened by a variety of stressors, no comprehensive global analysis of change in kelp abundances currently exists. Here, we build and analyze a global database of kelp time series spanning the past half-century to assess regional and global trends in kelp abundances. We detected a high degree of geographic variation in trends, with regional variability in the direction and magnitude of change far exceeding a small global average decline (instantaneous rate of change = -0.018 y -1 ). Our analysis identified declines in 38% of ecoregions for which there are data (-0.015 to -0.18 y -1 ), increases in 27% of ecoregions (0.015 to 0.11 y -1 ), and no detectable change in 35% of ecoregions. These spatially variable trajectories reflected regional differences in the drivers of change, uncertainty in some regions owing to poor spatial and temporal data coverage, and the dynamic nature of kelp populations. We conclude that although global drivers could be affecting kelp forests at multiple scales, local stressors and regional variation in the effects of these drivers dominate kelp dynamics, in contrast to many other marine and terrestrial foundation species.

Global patterns of kelp forest change over the past half-century

PubMed Central

Krumhansl, Kira A.; Okamoto, Daniel K.; Rassweiler, Andrew; Novak, Mark; Bolton, John J.; Cavanaugh, Kyle C.; Connell, Sean D.; Johnson, Craig R.; Konar, Brenda; Ling, Scott D.; Micheli, Fiorenza; Norderhaug, Kjell M.; Pérez-Matus, Alejandro; Sousa-Pinto, Isabel; Reed, Daniel C.; Salomon, Anne K.; Shears, Nick T.; Wernberg, Thomas; Anderson, Robert J.; Barrett, Nevell S.; Buschmann, Alejandro H.; Carr, Mark H.; Caselle, Jennifer E.; Derrien-Courtel, Sandrine; Edgar, Graham J.; Edwards, Matt; Estes, James A.; Goodwin, Claire; Kenner, Michael C.; Kushner, David J.; Nunn, Julia; Steneck, Robert S.; Vásquez, Julio; Watson, Jane; Witman, Jon D.

2016-01-01

Kelp forests (Order Laminariales) form key biogenic habitats in coastal regions of temperate and Arctic seas worldwide, providing ecosystem services valued in the range of billions of dollars annually. Although local evidence suggests that kelp forests are increasingly threatened by a variety of stressors, no comprehensive global analysis of change in kelp abundances currently exists. Here, we build and analyze a global database of kelp time series spanning the past half-century to assess regional and global trends in kelp abundances. We detected a high degree of geographic variation in trends, with regional variability in the direction and magnitude of change far exceeding a small global average decline (instantaneous rate of change = −0.018 y−1). Our analysis identified declines in 38% of ecoregions for which there are data (−0.015 to −0.18 y−1), increases in 27% of ecoregions (0.015 to 0.11 y−1), and no detectable change in 35% of ecoregions. These spatially variable trajectories reflected regional differences in the drivers of change, uncertainty in some regions owing to poor spatial and temporal data coverage, and the dynamic nature of kelp populations. We conclude that although global drivers could be affecting kelp forests at multiple scales, local stressors and regional variation in the effects of these drivers dominate kelp dynamics, in contrast to many other marine and terrestrial foundation species. PMID:27849580

Global fish production and climate change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brander, K.M.

2007-12-11

Current global fisheries production of {approx}160 million tons is rising as a result of increases in aquaculture production. A number of climate-related threats to both capture fisheries and aquaculture are identified, but there is low confidence in predictions of future fisheries production because of uncertainty over future global aquatic net primary production and the transfer of this production through the food chain to human consumption. Recent changes in the distribution and productivity of a number of fish species can be ascribed with high confidence to regional climate variability, such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. Future production may increase in somemore » high-latitude regions because of warming and decreased ice cover, but the dynamics in low-latitude regions are giverned by different processes, and production may decline as a result of reduced vertical mixing of the water column and, hence, reduced recycling of nutrients. There are strong interactions between the effects of fishing and the effects of climate because fishing reduces the age, size, and geographic diversity of populations and the biodiversity of marine ecosystems, making both more sensitive to additional stresses such as climate change. Inland fisheries are additionally threatened by changes in precipiation and water management. The frequency and intensity of extreme climate events is likely to have a major impact on future fisheries production in both inland and marine systems. Reducing fishing mortality in the majority of fisheries, which are currently fully exploited or overexploited, is the pricipal feasible means of reducing the impacts of climate change.« less

Effects of global change on hydro-geomorphological hazards in Mediterranean rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andres Lopez-Tarazon, Jose

2015-04-01

Mediterranean river basins are characterized by high (often extreme) temporal variability in precipitation, and hence discharge. Mediterranean countries are considered sensitive to so-called global change, considered as the combination of climate and land use changes. All panels on climate evolution predict future scenarios of increasing frequency and magnitude of floods and extended droughts in the Mediterranean region; both floods and droughts are likely to lead to huge geomorphic adjustments of river channels so, major metamorphosis of fluvial systems is expected as a result of global change. Water resources in the Mediterranean region is subjected to rising pressures, becoming a key issue for all governments (i.e. clear imbalance between the available water resources and the increasing water demand related to increasing human population). Such pressures are likely to give rise to major ecological and economic changes and challenges that governments need to address as a matter of priority. Changes in river flow regimes associated with global change are therefore ushering in a new era, where there is a critical need to evaluate hydro-geomorphological hazard from headwaters to lowland areas (flooding can be not just a problem related to being under the water). A key question is how our understanding of these hazards associated with global change can be improved; improvement has to come from integrated research which includes all physical conditions that influence the conveyance of water and sediments, and the river's capacity (i.e. amount of sediment) and competence (i.e. channel deformation) that, in turn, will influence physical conditions of a given point in the river network. This is the framework of the present work; it is directed to develop an integrated approach which both improves our understanding of how rivers are likely to evolve as a result of global change, and addresses the associated hazards of fluvial environmental change.

75 FR 17453 - International Product Change-Global Reseller Expedited Package Contracts

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-04-06

... POSTAL SERVICE International Product Change--Global Reseller Expedited Package Contracts AGENCY... Postal Regulatory Commission to add Global Reseller Expedited Package Contracts to the Competitive... Service to add Global Reseller Expedited Package Contracts to the Competitive Products List, and Notice of...

Lithological and Surface Geometry Joint Inversions Using Multi-Objective Global Optimization Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lelièvre, Peter; Bijani, Rodrigo; Farquharson, Colin

2016-04-01

surfaces are set to a priori values. The inversion is tasked with calculating the geometry of the contact surfaces instead of some piecewise distribution of properties in a mesh. Again, no coupling measure is required and joint inversion is simplified. Both of these inverse problems involve high nonlinearity and discontinuous or non-obtainable derivatives. They can also involve the existence of multiple minima. Hence, one can not apply the standard descent-based local minimization methods used to solve typical minimum-structure inversions. Instead, we are applying Pareto multi-objective global optimization (PMOGO) methods, which generate a suite of solutions that minimize multiple objectives (e.g. data misfits and regularization terms) in a Pareto-optimal sense. Providing a suite of models, as opposed to a single model that minimizes a weighted sum of objectives, allows a more complete assessment of the possibilities and avoids the often difficult choice of how to weight each objective. While there are definite advantages to PMOGO joint inversion approaches, the methods come with significantly increased computational requirements. We are researching various strategies to ameliorate these computational issues including parallelization and problem dimension reduction.

Global change pressures on soils from land use and management.

PubMed

Smith, Pete; House, Joanna I; Bustamante, Mercedes; Sobocká, Jaroslava; Harper, Richard; Pan, Genxing; West, Paul C; Clark, Joanna M; Adhya, Tapan; Rumpel, Cornelia; Paustian, Keith; Kuikman, Peter; Cotrufo, M Francesca; Elliott, Jane A; McDowell, Richard; Griffiths, Robert I; Asakawa, Susumu; Bondeau, Alberte; Jain, Atul K; Meersmans, Jeroen; Pugh, Thomas A M

2016-03-01

Soils are subject to varying degrees of direct or indirect human disturbance, constituting a major global change driver. Factoring out natural from direct and indirect human influence is not always straightforward, but some human activities have clear impacts. These include land-use change, land management and land degradation (erosion, compaction, sealing and salinization). The intensity of land use also exerts a great impact on soils, and soils are also subject to indirect impacts arising from human activity, such as acid deposition (sulphur and nitrogen) and heavy metal pollution. In this critical review, we report the state-of-the-art understanding of these global change pressures on soils, identify knowledge gaps and research challenges and highlight actions and policies to minimize adverse environmental impacts arising from these global change drivers. Soils are central to considerations of what constitutes sustainable intensification. Therefore, ensuring that vulnerable and high environmental value soils are considered when protecting important habitats and ecosystems, will help to reduce the pressure on land from global change drivers. To ensure that soils are protected as part of wider environmental efforts, a global soil resilience programme should be considered, to monitor, recover or sustain soil fertility and function, and to enhance the ecosystem services provided by soils. Soils cannot, and should not, be considered in isolation of the ecosystems that they underpin and vice versa. The role of soils in supporting ecosystems and natural capital needs greater recognition. The lasting legacy of the International Year of Soils in 2015 should be to put soils at the centre of policy supporting environmental protection and sustainable development. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Global water resources affected by human interventions and climate change.

PubMed

Haddeland, Ingjerd; Heinke, Jens; Biemans, Hester; Eisner, Stephanie; Flörke, Martina; Hanasaki, Naota; Konzmann, Markus; Ludwig, Fulco; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Schewe, Jacob; Stacke, Tobias; Tessler, Zachary D; Wada, Yoshihide; Wisser, Dominik

2014-03-04

Humans directly change the dynamics of the water cycle through dams constructed for water storage, and through water withdrawals for industrial, agricultural, or domestic purposes. Climate change is expected to additionally affect water supply and demand. Here, analyses of climate change and direct human impacts on the terrestrial water cycle are presented and compared using a multimodel approach. Seven global hydrological models have been forced with multiple climate projections, and with and without taking into account impacts of human interventions such as dams and water withdrawals on the hydrological cycle. Model results are analyzed for different levels of global warming, allowing for analyses in line with temperature targets for climate change mitigation. The results indicate that direct human impacts on the water cycle in some regions, e.g., parts of Asia and in the western United States, are of the same order of magnitude, or even exceed impacts to be expected for moderate levels of global warming (+2 K). Despite some spread in model projections, irrigation water consumption is generally projected to increase with higher global mean temperatures. Irrigation water scarcity is particularly large in parts of southern and eastern Asia, and is expected to become even larger in the future.

Global water resources affected by human interventions and climate change

PubMed Central

Haddeland, Ingjerd; Heinke, Jens; Biemans, Hester; Eisner, Stephanie; Flörke, Martina; Hanasaki, Naota; Konzmann, Markus; Ludwig, Fulco; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Schewe, Jacob; Stacke, Tobias; Tessler, Zachary D.; Wada, Yoshihide; Wisser, Dominik

2014-01-01

Humans directly change the dynamics of the water cycle through dams constructed for water storage, and through water withdrawals for industrial, agricultural, or domestic purposes. Climate change is expected to additionally affect water supply and demand. Here, analyses of climate change and direct human impacts on the terrestrial water cycle are presented and compared using a multimodel approach. Seven global hydrological models have been forced with multiple climate projections, and with and without taking into account impacts of human interventions such as dams and water withdrawals on the hydrological cycle. Model results are analyzed for different levels of global warming, allowing for analyses in line with temperature targets for climate change mitigation. The results indicate that direct human impacts on the water cycle in some regions, e.g., parts of Asia and in the western United States, are of the same order of magnitude, or even exceed impacts to be expected for moderate levels of global warming (+2 K). Despite some spread in model projections, irrigation water consumption is generally projected to increase with higher global mean temperatures. Irrigation water scarcity is particularly large in parts of southern and eastern Asia, and is expected to become even larger in the future. PMID:24344275

Climate change, livelihoods and the multiple determinants of water adequacy: two approaches at regional to global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lissner, Tabea; Reusser, Dominik

2015-04-01

Inadequate access to water is already a problem in many regions of the world and processes of global change are expected to further exacerbate the situation. Many aspects determine the adequacy of water resources: beside actual physical water stress, where the resource itself is limited, economic and social water stress can be experienced if access to resource is limited by inadequate infrastructure, political or financial constraints. To assess the adequacy of water availability for human use, integrated approaches are needed that allow to view the multiple determinants in conjunction and provide sound results as a basis for informed decisions. This contribution proposes two parts of an integrated approach to look at the multiple dimensions of water scarcity at regional to global scale. These were developed in a joint project with the German Development Agency (GIZ). It first outlines the AHEAD approach to measure Adequate Human livelihood conditions for wEll-being And Development, implemented at global scale and at national resolution. This first approach allows viewing impacts of climate change, e.g. changes in water availability, within the wider context of AHEAD conditions. A specific focus lies on the uncertainties in projections of climate change and future water availability. As adequate water access is not determined by water availability alone, in a second step we develop an approach to assess the water requirements for different sectors in more detail, including aspects of quantity, quality as well as access, in an integrated way. This more detailed approach is exemplified at region-scale in Indonesia and South Africa. Our results show that in many regions of the world, water scarcity is a limitation to AHEAD conditions in many countries, regardless of differing modelling output. The more detailed assessments highlight the relevance of additional aspects to assess the adequacy of water for human use, showing that in many regions, quality and

Nonlinear, interacting responses to climate limit grassland production under global change.

PubMed

Zhu, Kai; Chiariello, Nona R; Tobeck, Todd; Fukami, Tadashi; Field, Christopher B

2016-09-20

Global changes in climate, atmospheric composition, and pollutants are altering ecosystems and the goods and services they provide. Among approaches for predicting ecosystem responses, long-term observations and manipulative experiments can be powerful approaches for resolving single-factor and interactive effects of global changes on key metrics such as net primary production (NPP). Here we combine both approaches, developing multidimensional response surfaces for NPP based on the longest-running, best-replicated, most-multifactor global-change experiment at the ecosystem scale-a 17-y study of California grassland exposed to full-factorial warming, added precipitation, elevated CO2, and nitrogen deposition. Single-factor and interactive effects were not time-dependent, enabling us to analyze each year as a separate realization of the experiment and extract NPP as a continuous function of global-change factors. We found a ridge-shaped response surface in which NPP is humped (unimodal) in response to temperature and precipitation when CO2 and nitrogen are ambient, with peak NPP rising under elevated CO2 or nitrogen but also shifting to lower temperatures. Our results suggest that future climate change will push this ecosystem away from conditions that maximize NPP, but with large year-to-year variability.

Vulnerability of the global terrestrial ecosystems to climate change.

PubMed

Li, Delong; Wu, Shuyao; Liu, Laibao; Zhang, Yatong; Li, Shuangcheng

2018-05-27

Climate change has far-reaching impacts on ecosystems. Recent attempts to quantify such impacts focus on measuring exposure to climate change but largely ignore ecosystem resistance and resilience, which may also affect the vulnerability outcomes. In this study, the relative vulnerability of global terrestrial ecosystems to short-term climate variability was assessed by simultaneously integrating exposure, sensitivity, and resilience at a high spatial resolution (0.05°). The results show that vulnerable areas are currently distributed primarily in plains. Responses to climate change vary among ecosystems and deserts and xeric shrublands are the most vulnerable biomes. Global vulnerability patterns are determined largely by exposure, while ecosystem sensitivity and resilience may exacerbate or alleviate external climate pressures at local scales; there is a highly significant negative correlation between exposure and sensitivity. Globally, 61.31% of the terrestrial vegetated area is capable of mitigating climate change impacts and those areas are concentrated in polar regions, boreal forests, tropical rainforests, and intact forests. Under current sensitivity and resilience conditions, vulnerable areas are projected to develop in high Northern Hemisphere latitudes in the future. The results suggest that integrating all three aspects of vulnerability (exposure, sensitivity, and resilience) may offer more comprehensive and spatially explicit adaptation strategies to reduce the impacts of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Hormonally mediated maternal effects, individual strategy and global change

PubMed Central

Meylan, Sandrine; Miles, Donald B.; Clobert, Jean

2012-01-01

A challenge to ecologists and evolutionary biologists is predicting organismal responses to the anticipated changes to global ecosystems through climate change. Most evidence suggests that short-term global change may involve increasing occurrences of extreme events, therefore the immediate response of individuals will be determined by physiological capacities and life-history adaptations to cope with extreme environmental conditions. Here, we consider the role of hormones and maternal effects in determining the persistence of species in altered environments. Hormones, specifically steroids, are critical for patterning the behaviour and morphology of parents and their offspring. Hence, steroids have a pervasive influence on multiple aspects of the offspring phenotype over its lifespan. Stress hormones, e.g. glucocorticoids, modulate and perturb phenotypes both early in development and later into adulthood. Females exposed to abiotic stressors during reproduction may alter the phenotypes by manipulation of hormones to the embryos. Thus, hormone-mediated maternal effects, which generate phenotypic plasticity, may be one avenue for coping with global change. Variation in exposure to hormones during development influences both the propensity to disperse, which alters metapopulation dynamics, and population dynamics, by affecting either recruitment to the population or subsequent life-history characteristics of the offspring. We suggest that hormones may be an informative index to the potential for populations to adapt to changing environments. PMID:22566673

Global Governance for Health: how to motivate political change?

PubMed

McNeill, D; Ottersen, O P

2015-07-01

In this article, we address a central theme that was discussed at the Durham Health Summit: how can politics be brought back into global health governance and figure much more prominently in discussions around policy? We begin by briefly summarizing the report of the Lancet - University of Oslo Commission on Global Governance for Health: 'The Political Origins of Health Inequity' Ottersen et al. In order to provide compelling evidence of the central argument, the Commission selected seven case studies relating to, inter alia, economic and fiscal policy, food security, and foreign trade and investment agreements. Based on an analysis of these studies, the report concludes that the problems identified are often due to political choices: an unwillingness to change the global system of governance. This raises the question: what is the most effective way that a report of this kind can be used to motivate policy-makers, and the public at large, to demand change? What kind of moral or rational argument is most likely to lead to action? In this paper we assess the merits of various alternative perspectives: health as an investment; health as a global public good; health and human security; health and human development; health as a human right; health and global justice. We conclude that what is required in order to motivate change is a more explicitly political and moral perspective - favouring the later rather than the earlier alternatives just listed. Copyright © 2015 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Interface of Mechanics and Nociception in Joint Pathophysiology: Insights From the Facet and Temporomandibular Joints

PubMed Central

Sperry, Megan M.; Ita, Meagan E.; Kartha, Sonia; Zhang, Sijia; Yu, Ya-Hsin; Winkelstein, Beth

2017-01-01

Chronic joint pain is a widespread problem that frequently occurs with aging and trauma. Pain occurs most often in synovial joints, the body's load bearing joints. The mechanical and molecular mechanisms contributing to synovial joint pain are reviewed using two examples, the cervical spinal facet joints and the temporomandibular joint (TMJ). Although much work has focused on the macroscale mechanics of joints in health and disease, the combined influence of tissue mechanics, molecular processes, and nociception in joint pain has only recently become a focus. Trauma and repeated loading can induce structural and biochemical changes in joints, altering their microenvironment and modifying the biomechanics of their constitutive tissues, which themselves are innervated. Peripheral pain sensors can become activated in response to changes in the joint microenvironment and relay pain signals to the spinal cord and brain where pain is processed and perceived. In some cases, pain circuitry is permanently changed, which may be a potential mechanism for sustained joint pain. However, it is most likely that alterations in both the joint microenvironment and the central nervous system (CNS) contribute to chronic pain. As such, the challenge of treating joint pain and degeneration is temporally and spatially complicated. This review summarizes anatomy, physiology, and pathophysiology of these joints and the sensory pain relays. Pain pathways are postulated to be sensitized by many factors, including degeneration and biochemical priming, with effects on thresholds for mechanical injury and/or dysfunction. Initiators of joint pain are discussed in the context of clinical challenges including the diagnosis and treatment of pain. PMID:28056123

Global surface temperature change analysis based on MODIS data in recent twelve years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mao, K. B.; Ma, Y.; Tan, X. L.; Shen, X. Y.; Liu, G.; Li, Z. L.; Chen, J. M.; Xia, L.

2017-01-01

Global surface temperature change is one of the most important aspects in global climate change research. In this study, in order to overcome shortcomings of traditional observation methods in meteorology, a new method is proposed to calculate global mean surface temperature based on remote sensing data. We found that (1) the global mean surface temperature was close to 14.35 °C from 2001 to 2012, and the warmest and coldest surface temperatures of the global in the recent twelve years occurred in 2005 and 2008, respectively; (2) the warmest and coldest surface temperatures on the global land surface occurred in 2005 and 2001, respectively, and on the global ocean surface in 2010 and 2008, respectively; and (3) in recent twelve years, although most regions (especially the Southern Hemisphere) are warming, global warming is yet controversial because it is cooling in the central and eastern regions of Pacific Ocean, northern regions of the Atlantic Ocean, northern regions of China, Mongolia, southern regions of Russia, western regions of Canada and America, the eastern and northern regions of Australia, and the southern tip of Africa. The analysis of daily and seasonal temperature change indicates that the temperature change is mainly caused by the variation of orbit of celestial body. A big data model based on orbit position and gravitational-magmatic change of celestial body with the solar or the galactic system should be built and taken into account for climate and ecosystems change at a large spatial-temporal scale.

Data principles for the U.S. Global Change Research Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ludwig, George H.; Shaffer, Lisa R.

1991-01-01

The U.S. Interagency Working Group on Data Management for Global Change has developed a set of data management and access principles. The overall purpose of these statements of principle is to stimulate responsible stewardship for data and related information and to facilitate full and open access to them. These statements have been accepted by the U.S. Agencies responsible for the Global Change Research Program. The statements of principle are presented and discussed.

Global climate change: A strategic issue facing Illinois

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Womeldorff, P.J.

1995-12-31

This paper discusses global climate change, summarizes activities related to climate change, and identifies possible outcomes of the current debate on the subject. Aspects of climate change related to economic issues are very briefly summarized; it is suggested that the end result will be a change in lifestyle in developed countries. International activities, with an emphasis on the Framework Convention on Climate Change, and U.S. activities are outlined. It is recommended that the minimum action required is to work to understand the issue and prepare for possible action.

Our Globally Changing Climate. Chapter 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wuebbles, D. J.; Easterling, D. R.; Hayhoe, K.; Knutson, T.; Kopp, R. E.; Kossin, J. P.; Kunkel, K. E.; LeGrande, A. N.; Mears, C.; Sweet, W. V.;

Re-Examining the Relationship between Tillage Regime and Global Climate Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hammons, Sarah K.

2009-01-01

It is known that anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are a major contributor to global climate change and that reducing our emissions will stem its acceleration (Baker et al., 2007). Aside from emission reductions, another method for stemming global climate change is to reduce the levels of greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere by storing…

Modeling the excitation of global Alfven modes by an external antenna in the Joint European Torus (JET)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huysmans, G.T.A.; Kerner, W.; Borba, D.

1995-05-01

The active excitation of global Alfven modes using the saddle coils in the Joint European Torus (JET) [{ital Plasma} {ital Physics} {ital and} {ital Controlled} {ital Nuclear} {ital Fusion} {ital Research} 1984, Proceedings of the 10th International Conference, London (International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna, 1985), Vol. 1, p. 11] as the external antenna, will provide information on the damping of global modes without the need to drive the modes unstable. For the modeling of the Alfven mode excitation, the toroidal resistive magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) code CASTOR (Complex Alfven Spectrum in TORoidal geometry) [18{ital th} {ital EPS} {ital Conference} {ital On} {italmore » Controlled} {ital Fusion} {ital and} {ital Plasma} {ital Physics}, Berlin, 1991, edited by P. Bachmann and D. C. Robinson (The European Physical Society, Petit-Lancy, 1991), Vol. 15, Part IV, p. 89] has been extended to calculate the response to an external antenna. The excitation of a high-performance, high beta JET discharge is studied numerically. In particular, the influence of a finite pressure is investigated. Weakly damped low-{ital n} global modes do exist in the gaps in the continuous spectrum at high beta. A pressure-driven global mode is found due to the interaction of Alfven and slow modes. Its frequency scales solely with the plasma temperature, not like a pure Alfven mode with a density and magnetic field.« less

Double symbolic joint entropy in nonlinear dynamic complexity analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, Wenpo; Wang, Jun

2017-07-01

Symbolizations, the base of symbolic dynamic analysis, are classified as global static and local dynamic approaches which are combined by joint entropy in our works for nonlinear dynamic complexity analysis. Two global static methods, symbolic transformations of Wessel N. symbolic entropy and base-scale entropy, and two local ones, namely symbolizations of permutation and differential entropy, constitute four double symbolic joint entropies that have accurate complexity detections in chaotic models, logistic and Henon map series. In nonlinear dynamical analysis of different kinds of heart rate variability, heartbeats of healthy young have higher complexity than those of the healthy elderly, and congestive heart failure (CHF) patients are lowest in heartbeats' joint entropy values. Each individual symbolic entropy is improved by double symbolic joint entropy among which the combination of base-scale and differential symbolizations have best complexity analysis. Test results prove that double symbolic joint entropy is feasible in nonlinear dynamic complexity analysis.

Charcot joint-like changes following ankle fracture in a patient with no underlying disease: report of a rare case.

PubMed

Kumagai, Masaru; Yokota, Kiyoshi; Endoh, Toshiya; Takemoto, Hitoshi; Nagata, Kensei

2002-01-01

Charcot joint is a disease that often occurs in patients with diabetes mellitus, tabes dorsalis, syringomyelia, chronic alcoholism, leprosy, trauma, or infection after fractures and dislocations. The treatment for Charcot joint has various complications, such as skin lesions, infections, and delayed union. We present our experience with a male patient who developed Charcot joint-like changes without diabetes mellitus or any other disease after an ankle fracture due to minor trauma.

High-resolution global maps of 21st-century forest cover change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hansen, M.C.; Potapov, P.V.; Moore, R.; Hancher, M.; Turubanova, S.A.; Tyukavina, A.; Thau, D.; Stehman, S.V.; Goetz, S.J.; Loveland, Thomas R.; Kommareddy, A.; Egorov, Alexey; Chini, L.; Justice, C.O.; Townshend, J.R.G.

2013-01-01

Quantification of global forest change has been lacking despite the recognized importance of forest ecosystem services. In this study, Earth observation satellite data were used to map global forest loss (2.3 million square kilometers) and gain (0.8 million square kilometers) from 2000 to 2012 at a spatial resolution of 30 meters. The tropics were the only climate domain to exhibit a trend, with forest loss increasing by 2101 square kilometers per year. Brazil’s well-documented reduction in deforestation was offset by increasing forest loss in Indonesia, Malaysia, Paraguay, Bolivia, Zambia, Angola, and elsewhere. Intensive forestry practiced within subtropical forests resulted in the highest rates of forest change globally. Boreal forest loss due largely to fire and forestry was second to that in the tropics in absolute and proportional terms. These results depict a globally consistent and locally relevant record of forest change.

High-resolution global maps of 21st-century forest cover change.

PubMed

Hansen, M C; Potapov, P V; Moore, R; Hancher, M; Turubanova, S A; Tyukavina, A; Thau, D; Stehman, S V; Goetz, S J; Loveland, T R; Kommareddy, A; Egorov, A; Chini, L; Justice, C O; Townshend, J R G

2013-11-15

Quantification of global forest change has been lacking despite the recognized importance of forest ecosystem services. In this study, Earth observation satellite data were used to map global forest loss (2.3 million square kilometers) and gain (0.8 million square kilometers) from 2000 to 2012 at a spatial resolution of 30 meters. The tropics were the only climate domain to exhibit a trend, with forest loss increasing by 2101 square kilometers per year. Brazil's well-documented reduction in deforestation was offset by increasing forest loss in Indonesia, Malaysia, Paraguay, Bolivia, Zambia, Angola, and elsewhere. Intensive forestry practiced within subtropical forests resulted in the highest rates of forest change globally. Boreal forest loss due largely to fire and forestry was second to that in the tropics in absolute and proportional terms. These results depict a globally consistent and locally relevant record of forest change.

Population aging, macroeconomic changes, and global diabetes prevalence, 1990-2008.

PubMed

Sudharsanan, Nikkil; Ali, Mohammed K; Mehta, Neil K; Narayan, K M Venkat

2015-01-01

Diabetes is an important contributor to global morbidity and mortality. The contributions of population aging and macroeconomic changes to the growth in diabetes prevalence over the past 20 years are unclear. We used cross-sectional data on age- and sex-specific counts of people with diabetes by country, national population estimates, and country-specific macroeconomic variables for the years 1990, 2000, and 2008. Decomposition analysis was performed to quantify the contribution of population aging to the change in global diabetes prevalence between 1990 and 2008. Next, age-standardization was used to estimate the contribution of age composition to differences in diabetes prevalence between high-income (HIC) and low-to-middle-income countries (LMICs). Finally, we used non-parametric correlation and multivariate first-difference regression estimates to examine the relationship between macroeconomic changes and the change in diabetes prevalence between 1990 and 2008. Globally, diabetes prevalence grew by two percentage points between 1990 (7.4 %) and 2008 (9.4 %). Population aging was responsible for 19 % of the growth, with 81 % attributable to increases in the age-specific prevalences. In both LMICs and HICs, about half the growth in age-specific prevalences was from increasing levels of diabetes between ages 45-65 (51 % in HICs and 46 % in LMICs). After age-standardization, the difference in the prevalence of diabetes between LMICs and HICs was larger (1.9 % point difference in 1990; 1.5 % point difference in 2008). We found no evidence that macroeconomic changes were associated with the growth in diabetes prevalence. Population aging explains a minority of the recent growth in global diabetes prevalence. The increase in global diabetes between 1990 and 2008 was primarily due to an increase in the prevalence of diabetes at ages 45-65. We do not find evidence that basic indicators of economic growth, development, globalization, or urbanization were related

Global patterns in endemism explained by past climatic change.

PubMed

Jansson, Roland

2003-03-22

I propose that global patterns in numbers of range-restricted endemic species are caused by variation in the amplitude of climatic change occurring on time-scales of 10-100 thousand years (Milankovitch oscillations). The smaller the climatic shifts, the more probable it is that palaeoendemics survive and that diverging gene pools persist without going extinct or merging, favouring the evolution of neoendemics. Using the change in mean annual temperature since the last glacial maximum, estimated from global circulation models, I show that the higher the temperature change in an area, the fewer endemic species of mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians and vascular plants it harbours. This relationship was robust to variation in area (for areas greater than 10(4) km2), latitudinal position, extent of former glaciation and whether or not areas are oceanic islands. Past climatic change was a better predictor of endemism than annual temperature range in all phylads except amphibians, suggesting that Rapoport's rule (i.e. species range sizes increase with latitude) is best explained by the increase in the amplitude of climatic oscillations towards the poles. Globally, endemic-rich areas are predicted to warm less in response to greenhouse-gas emissions, but the predicted warming would cause many habitats to disappear regionally, leading to species extinctions.

Climate-soil Interactions: Global Change, Local Properties, and Ecological Sites

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Global climate change is predicted to alter historic patterns of precipitation and temperature in rangelands globally. Vegetation community response to altered weather patterns will be mediated at the site level by local-scale properties that govern ecological potential, including geology, topograph...

GLOBAL CHANGE EFFECTS ON CORAL REEF CONDITION

EPA Science Inventory

Fisher, W., W. Davis, J. Campbell, L. Courtney, P. Harris, B. Hemmer, M. Parsons, B. Quarles and D. Santavy. In press. Global Change Effects on Coral Reef Condition (Abstract). To be presented at the EPA Science Forum: Healthy Communities and Ecosystems, 1-3 June 2004, Washington...

Characterization of Individuals with Sacroiliac Joint Bridging in a Skeletal Population: Analysis of Degenerative Changes in Spinal Vertebrae

PubMed Central

Imamura, Takeshi; Saiki, Kazunobu; Okamoto, Keishi; Maeda, Junichiro; Matsuo, Hiroaki; Wakebe, Tetsuaki; Ogami, Keiko; Tomita, Masato; Tagami, Atsushi; Shindo, Hiroyuki; Tsurumoto, Toshiyuki

2014-01-01

The aim of this study was to characterize the individuals with sacroiliac joint bridging (SIB) by analyzing the degenerative changes in their whole vertebral column and comparing them with the controls. A total of 291 modern Japanese male skeletons, with an average age at death of 60.8 years, were examined macroscopically. They were divided into two groups: individuals with SIB and those without bridging (Non-SIB). The degenerative changes in their whole vertebral column were evaluated, and marginal osteophyte scores (MOS) of the vertebral bodies and degenerative joint scores in zygapophyseal joints were calculated. SIB was recognized in 30 individuals from a total of 291 males (10.3%). The average of age at death in SIB group was significantly higher than that in Non-SIB group. The values of MOS in the thoracic spines, particularly in the anterior part of the vertebral bodies, were consecutively higher in SIB group than in Non-SIB group. Incidence of fused vertebral bodies intervertebral levels was obviously higher in SIB group than in Non-SIB group. SIB and marginal osteophyte formation in vertebral bodies could coexist in a skeletal population of men. Some systemic factors might act on these degenerative changes simultaneously both in sacroiliac joint and in vertebral column. PMID:25276825

Global Change and Human Consumption of Freshwater Driven by Flow Regulation and Irrigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaramillo, F.; Destouni, G.

2015-12-01

Recent studies show major uncertainties about the magnitude and key drivers of global freshwater change, historically and projected for the future. The tackling of these uncertainties should be a societal priority to understand: 1) the role of human change drivers for freshwater availability changes, 2) the global water footprint of humanity and 3) the relation of human freshwater consumption to a proposed planetary boundary. This study analyses worldwide hydroclimatic changes, as observed during 1900-2009 in 99 large hydrological basins across all continents. We test whether global freshwater change may be driven by major developments of flow regulation and irrigation (FRI) occurring over this period. Independent categorization of the variability of FRI-impact strength among the studied basins is used to identify statistical basin differences in occurrence and strength of characteristic hydroclimatic signals of FRI. Our results show dominant signals of increasing relative evapotranspiration in basins affected by flow regulation and/or irrigation, in conjunction with decreasing relative intra-annual variability of runoff in basins affected by flow regulation. The FRI-related increase in relative evapotranspiration implies an increase of 4,688 km3/yr in global annual average water flow from land to the atmosphere. This observation-based estimate extends considerably the upper quantification limits of both FRI-driven and total global human consumption of freshwater, as well as the global water footprint of humanity. Our worldwide analysis shows clear FRI-related change signals emerging directly from observations, in spite of large change variability among basins and many other coexisting change drivers in both the atmosphere and the landscape. These results highlight the importance of considering local water use as a key change driver in Earth system studies and modelling, of relevance for global change and human consumption of freshwater.

Change of synovial vascularity in a single finger joint assessed by power doppler sonography correlated with radiographic change in rheumatoid arthritis: comparative study of a novel quantitative score with a semiquantitative score.

PubMed

Fukae, Jun; Kon, Yujiro; Henmi, Mihoko; Sakamoto, Fumihiko; Narita, Akihiro; Shimizu, Masato; Tanimura, Kazuhide; Matsuhashi, Megumi; Kamishima, Tamotsu; Atsumi, Tatsuya; Koike, Takao

2010-05-01

To investigate the relationship between synovial vascularity assessed by quantitative power Doppler sonography (PDS) and progression of structural bone damage in a single finger joint in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). We studied 190 metacarpophalangeal (MCP) joints and 190 proximal interphalangeal (PIP) joints of 19 patients with active RA who had initial treatment with disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs). Patients were examined by clinical and laboratory assessments throughout the study. Hand and foot radiography was performed at baseline and the twentieth week. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) was performed at baseline. PDS was performed at baseline and the eighth week. Synovial vascularity was evaluated according to both quantitative and semiquantitative methods. Quantitative PDS was significantly correlated with the enhancement rate of MRI in each single finger joint. Comparing quantitative synovial vascularity and radiographic change in single MCP or PIP joints, the level of vascularity at baseline showed a significant positive correlation with radiographic progression at the twentieth week. The change of vascularity in response to DMARDs, defined as the percentage change in vascularity by the eighth week from baseline, was inversely correlated with radiographic progression in each MCP joint. The quantitative PDS method was more useful than the semiquantitative method for the evaluation of synovial vascularity in a single finger joint. The change of synovial vascularity in a single finger joint determined by quantitative PDS could numerically predict its radiographic progression. Using vascularity as a guide to consider a therapeutic approach would have benefits for patients with active RA.

International Peer Collaboration to Learn about Global Climate Changes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Korsager, Majken; Slotta, James D.

2015-01-01

Climate change is not local; it is global. This means that many environmental issues related to climate change are not geographically limited and hence concern humans in more than one location. There is a growing body of research indicating that today's increased climate change is caused by human activities and our modern lifestyle. Consequently,…

Climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble.

PubMed

Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Giorgi, Filippo

2012-01-10

We use a statistical metric of multi-dimensional climate change to quantify the emergence of global climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 climate model ensemble. Our hotspot metric extends previous work through the inclusion of extreme seasonal temperature and precipitation, which exert critical influence on climate change impacts. The results identify areas of the Amazon, the Sahel and tropical West Africa, Indonesia, and the Tibetan Plateau as persistent regional climate change hotspots throughout the 21 st century of the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 forcing pathways. In addition, areas of southern Africa, the Mediterranean, the Arctic, and Central America/western North America also emerge as prominent regional climate change hotspots in response to intermediate and high levels of forcing. Comparisons of different periods of the two forcing pathways suggest that the pattern of aggregate change is fairly robust to the level of global warming below approximately 2°C of global warming (relative to the late-20 th -century baseline), but not at the higher levels of global warming that occur in the late-21 st -century period of the RCP8.5 pathway, with areas of southern Africa, the Mediterranean, and the Arctic exhibiting particular intensification of relative aggregate climate change in response to high levels of forcing. Although specific impacts will clearly be shaped by the interaction of climate change with human and biological vulnerabilities, our identification of climate change hotspots can help to inform mitigation and adaptation decisions by quantifying the rate, magnitude and causes of the aggregate climate response in different parts of the world.

MRI of the sacroiliac joints in spondyloarthritis: the added value of intra-articular signal changes for a 'positive MRI'.

PubMed

Laloo, Frederiek; Herregods, N; Jaremko, J L; Verstraete, K; Jans, L

2018-05-01

To determine if intra-articular signal changes at the sacroiliac joint space on MRI have added diagnostic value for spondyloarthritis, when compared to bone marrow edema (BME). A retrospective study was performed on the MRIs of sacroiliac joints of 363 patients, aged 16-45 years, clinically suspected of sacroiliitis. BME of the sacroiliac joints was correlated to intra-articular sacroiliac joint MR signal changes: high T1 signal, fluid signal, ankylosis and vacuum phenomenon (VP). These MRI findings were correlated with final clinical diagnosis. Sensitivity (SN), specificity (SP), likelihood ratios (LR), predictive values and post-test probabilities were calculated. BME had SN of 68.9%, SP of 74.0% and LR+ of 2.6 for diagnosis of spondyloarthritis. BME in absence of intra-articular signal changes had a lower SN and LR+ for spondyloarthritis (SN = 20.5%, LR+ 1.4). Concomitant BME and high T1 signal (SP = 97.2%, LR + = 10.5), BME and fluid signal (SP = 98.6%, LR + = 10.3) or BME and ankylosis (SP = 100%) had higher SP and LR+ for spondyloarthritis. Concomitant BME and VP had low LR+ for spondyloarthritis (SP = 91%, LR + =0.9). When BME was absent, intra-articular signal changes were less prevalent, but remained highly specific for spondyloarthritis. Our results suggest that both periarticular and intra-articular MR signal of the sacroiliac joint should be examined to determine whether an MRI is 'positive' or 'not positive' for sacroiliitis associated with spondyloarthritis.

Natural versus anthropogenic climate change: Swedish farmers' joint construction of climate perceptions.

PubMed

Asplund, Therese

2016-07-01

While previous research into understandings of climate change has usually examined general public perceptions, this study offers an audience-specific departure point. This article analyses how Swedish farmers perceive climate change and how they jointly shape their understandings. The agricultural sector is of special interest because it both contributes to and is directly affected by climate change. Through focus group discussions with Swedish farmers, this study finds that (1) farmers relate to and understand climate change through their own experiences, (2) climate change is understood either as a natural process subject to little or no human influence or as anthropogenic and (3) various communication tools contribute to the formation of natural and anthropogenic climate change frames. The article ends by discussing frame resonance and frame clash in public understanding of climate change and by comparing potential similarities and differences in how various segments of the public make sense of climate change. © The Author(s) 2014.

Untangling Consequential Futures: Discovering Self-Consistent Regional and Global Multi-Sector Change Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamontagne, J. R.; Reed, P. M.

2017-12-01

Impacts and adaptations to global change largely occur at regional scales, yet they are shaped globally through the interdependent evolution of the climate, energy, agriculture, and industrial systems. It is important for regional actors to account for the impacts of global changes on their systems in a globally consistent but regionally relevant way. This can be challenging because emerging global reference scenarios may not reflect regional challenges. Likewise, regionally specific scenarios may miss important global feedbacks. In this work, we contribute a scenario discovery framework to identify regionally-specific decision relevant scenarios from an ensemble of scenarios of global change. To this end, we generated a large ensemble of time evolving regional, multi-sector global change scenarios by a full factorial sampling of the underlying assumptions in the emerging shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs), using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Statistical and visual analytics were then used to discover which SSP assumptions are particularly consequential for various regions, considering a broad range of time-evolving metrics that encompass multiple spatial scales and sectors. In an illustrative examples, we identify the most important global change narratives to inform water resource scenarios for several geographic regions using the proposed scenario discovery framework. Our results highlight the importance of demographic and agricultural evolution compared to technical improvements in the energy sector. We show that narrowly sampling a few canonical reference scenarios provides a very narrow view of the consequence space, increasing the risk of tacitly ignoring major impacts. Even optimistic scenarios contain unintended, disproportionate regional impacts and intergenerational transfers of consequence. Formulating consequential scenarios of deeply and broadly uncertain futures requires a better exploration of which quantitative measures of

Global atmospheric changes.

PubMed

Piver, W T

1991-12-01

Increasing concentrations of CO2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere can be directly related to global warming. In terms of human health, because a major cause of increasing atmospheric concentrations of CO2 is the increased combustion of fossil fuels, global warming also may result in increases in air pollutants, acid deposition, and exposure to ultraviolet (UV) radiation. To understand better the impacts of global warming phenomena on human health, this review emphasizes the processes that are responsible for the greenhouse effect, air pollution, acid deposition, and increased exposure to UV radiation.

Predicting extinctions as a result of climate change

Treesearch

Mark W. Schwartz; Louis R. Iverson; Anantha M. Prasad; Stephen N. Matthews; Raymond J. O' Connor; Raymond J. O' Connor

2006-01-01

Widespread extinction is a predicted ecological consequence of global warming. Extinction risk under climate change scenarios is a function of distribution breadth. Focusing on trees and birds of the eastern United States, we used joint climate and environment models to examine fit and climate change vulnerability as a function of distribution breadth. We found that...

Decentralized control of large flexible structures by joint decoupling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Su, Tzu-Jeng; Juang, Jer-Nan

1994-01-01

This paper presents a novel method to design decentralized controllers for large complex flexible structures by using the idea of joint decoupling. Decoupling of joint degrees of freedom from the interior degrees of freedom is achieved by setting the joint actuator commands to cancel the internal forces exerting on the joint degrees of freedom. By doing so, the interactions between substructures are eliminated. The global structure control design problem is then decomposed into several substructure control design problems. Control commands for interior actuators are set to be localized state feedback using decentralized observers for state estimation. The proposed decentralized controllers can operate successfully at the individual substructure level as well as at the global structure level. Not only control design but also control implementation is decentralized. A two-component mass-spring-damper system is used as an example to demonstrate the proposed method.

Posteroanterior cephalometric changes in subjects with temporomandibular joint disorders

PubMed Central

Almăşan, O C; Băciuţ, M; Hedeşiu, M; Bran, S; Almăşan, H; Băciuţ, G

2013-01-01

Objectives The aim of the study was to establish the changes in posteroanterior cephalometric variables in subjects with temporomandibular joint disorders (TMDs). Methods Posteroanterior cephalograms of 61 subjects (age range 16–36.6 years, standard deviation 4.88 years) were used to determine cephalometric differences. Subjects were classified according to the Research Diagnostic Criteria for Temporomandibular Joint Disorders into three groups: unilateral TMD, bilateral TMD and no TMD. 14 linear and angular measurements were assessed on the posteroanterior cephalogram. For assessing facial asymmetry, the asymmetry index for bilateral measurements was calculated between the right and the left side. In cases with unilateral TMD, the asymmetry index was calculated using the difference between the unaffected and affected side. The differences among multiple groups were analysed using the one-way analysis of variance test and Scheffé post hoc test. Results 47 subjects were females (77%) and 14 were males (23%). 19 subjects had unilateral TMDs and 16 subjects had bilateral TMDs. The asymmetry index of the distance from the horizontal plane to the antegonion was higher in subjects with unilateral TMD than in patients with bilateral or no TMD (p < 0.05). Also, the asymmetry index of the distances from the vertical plane to the condyle (p = 0.05), gonion (Go) (p = 0.0004), antegonion (p = 0.002) and chin (Ch) (p = 0.02) was higher in subjects with unilateral TMDs. The asymmetry index of the O point–Go–Go′ and O point–Ch–Ch′ angles differed significantly in subjects with unilateral TMDs (p < 0.05). Conclusions Unilateral TMDs are associated with changes in posteroanterior cephalometric measurements. The assessment of posteroanterior cephalometric variables could be used as a key factor for evaluating the presence of TMDs. PMID:23253565

Global Terrestrial Water Storage Changes and Connections to ENSO Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ni, Shengnan; Chen, Jianli; Wilson, Clark R.; Li, Jin; Hu, Xiaogong; Fu, Rong

2018-01-01

Improved data quality of extended record of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite gravity solutions enables better understanding of terrestrial water storage (TWS) variations. Connections of TWS and climate change are critical to investigate regional and global water cycles. In this study, we provide a comprehensive analysis of global connections between interannual TWS changes and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, using multiple sources of data, including GRACE measurements, land surface model (LSM) predictions and precipitation observations. We use cross-correlation and coherence spectrum analysis to examine global connections between interannual TWS changes and the Niño 3.4 index, and select four river basins (Amazon, Orinoco, Colorado, and Lena) for more detailed analysis. The results indicate that interannual TWS changes are strongly correlated with ENSO over much of the globe, with maximum cross-correlation coefficients up to 0.70, well above the 95% significance level ( 0.29) derived by the Monte Carlo experiments. The strongest correlations are found in tropical and subtropical regions, especially in the Amazon, Orinoco, and La Plata basins. While both GRACE and LSM TWS estimates show reasonably good correlations with ENSO and generally consistent spatial correlation patterns, notably higher correlations are found between GRACE TWS and ENSO. The existence of significant correlations in middle-high latitudes shows the large-scale impact of ENSO on the global water cycle.

Standing Joint Forces: Spearhead for Global Operational Maneuver

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-05-26

Threat,” In The War Next Time: Countering Rogue States and Terrorists 1 20 NOVEMBER 2014 Operation Roundhouse was a resounding success. While...America’s " kick -down the door" force, capable of extremely rapid deployment from CONUS to anywhere in the world to ensure aerospace access for joint

What have we learned from global change manipulative experiments in China? A meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Fu, Zheng; Niu, Shuli; Dukes, Jeffrey S.

2015-01-01

Although China has the largest population in the world, a faster rate of warming than the global average, and an active global change research program, results from many of the global change experiments in Chinese terrestrial ecosystems have not been included in global syntheses. Here, we specifically analyze the observed responses of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycling in global change manipulative experiments in China, and compare these responses to those from other regions of the world. Most global change factors, vegetation types, and treatment methods that have been studied or used elsewhere in the world have also been studied and applied in China. The responses of terrestrial ecosystem C and N cycles to N addition and climate warming in China are similar in both direction and intensity to those reported in global syntheses. In Chinese ecosystems as elsewhere, N addition significantly increased aboveground (AGB) and belowground biomass (BGB), litter mass, dissolved organic C, net ecosystem productivity (NEP), and gross ecosystem productivity (GEP). Warming stimulated AGB, BGB and the root-shoot ratio. Increasing precipitation accelerated GEP, NEP, microbial respiration, soil respiration, and ecosystem respiration. Our findings complement and support previous global syntheses and provide insight into regional responses to global change. PMID:26205333

Changes in patellofemoral pain resulting from repetitive impact landings are associated with the magnitude and rate of patellofemoral joint loading.

PubMed

Atkins, Lee T; James, C Roger; Yang, Hyung Suk; Sizer, Phillip S; Brismée, Jean-Michel; Sawyer, Steven F; Powers, Christopher M

2018-03-01

Although a relationship between elevated patellofemoral forces and pain has been proposed, it is unknown which joint loading variable (magnitude, rate) is best associated with pain changes. The purpose of this study was to examine associations among patellofemoral joint loading variables and changes in patellofemoral pain across repeated single limb landings. Thirty-one females (age: 23.5(2.8) year; height: 166.8(5.8) cm; mass: 59.6(8.1) kg) with PFP performed 5 landing trials from 0.25 m. The dependent variable was rate of change in pain obtained from self-reported pain scores following each trial. Independent variables included 5-trial averages of peak, time-integral, and average and maximum development rates of the patellofemoral joint reaction force obtained using a previously described model. Pearson correlation coefficients were calculated to evaluate individual associations between rate of change in pain and each independent variable (α = 0.05). Stepwise linear multiple regression (α enter  = 0.05; α exit  = 0.10) was used to identify the best predictor of rate of change in pain. Subjects reported an average increase of 0.38 pain points with each landing trial. Although, rate of change in pain was positively correlated with peak force (r = 0.44, p = 0.01), and average (r = 0.41, p = 0.02) and maximum force development rates (r = 0.39, p = 0.03), only the peak force entered the predictive model explaining 19% of variance in rate of change in pain (r 2  = 0.19, p = 0.01). Peak patellofemoral joint reaction force was the best predictor of the rate of change in pain following repetitive singe limb landings. The current study supports the theory that patellofemoral joint loading contributes to changes in patellofemoral pain. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate change impacts on soil carbon storage in global croplands: 1901-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, W.; Tian, H.

2015-12-01

New global data finds 12% of earth's surface in cropland at present. Croplands will take on the responsibility to support approximate 60% increase in food production by 2050 as FAO estimates. In addition to nutrient supply to plants, cropland soils also play a major source and sink of greenhouse gases regulating global climate system. It is a big challenge to understand how soils function under global changes, but it is also a great opportunity for agricultural sector to manage soils to assure sustainability of agroecosystems and mitigate climate change. Previous studies have attempted to investigate the impacts of different land uses and climates on cropland soil carbon storage. However, large uncertainty still exists in magnitude and spatiotemporal patterns of global cropland soil organic carbon, due to the lack of reliable environmental databases and relatively poorly understanding of multiple controlling factors involved climate change and land use etc. Here, we use a process-based agroecosystem model (DLEM-Ag) in combination with diverse data sources to quantify magnitude and tempo-spatial patterns of soil carbon storage in global croplands during 1901-2010. We also analyze the relative contributions of major environmental variables (climate change, land use and management etc.). Our results indicate that intensive land use management may hidden the vulnerability of cropland soils to climate change in some regions, which may greatly weaken soil carbon sequestration under future climate change.

Prosthetic Joint Infection

PubMed Central

Tande, Aaron J.

2014-01-01

SUMMARY Prosthetic joint infection (PJI) is a tremendous burden for individual patients as well as the global health care industry. While a small minority of joint arthroplasties will become infected, appropriate recognition and management are critical to preserve or restore adequate function and prevent excess morbidity. In this review, we describe the reported risk factors for and clinical manifestations of PJI. We discuss the pathogenesis of PJI and the numerous microorganisms that can cause this devastating infection. The recently proposed consensus definitions of PJI and approaches to accurate diagnosis are reviewed in detail. An overview of the treatment and prevention of this challenging condition is provided. PMID:24696437

Joint CO2 and CH4 accountability for global warming

PubMed Central

Smith, Kirk R.; Desai, Manish A.; Rogers, Jamesine V.; Houghton, Richard A.

2013-01-01

We propose a transparent climate debt index incorporating both methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. We develop national historic emissions databases for both greenhouse gases to 2005, justifying 1950 as the starting point for global perspectives. We include CO2 emissions from fossil sources [CO2(f)], as well as, in a separate analysis, land use change and forestry. We calculate the CO2(f) and CH4 remaining in the atmosphere in 2005 from 205 countries using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fourth Assessment Report impulse response functions. We use these calculations to estimate the fraction of remaining global emissions due to each country, which is applied to total radiative forcing in 2005 to determine the combined climate debt from both greenhouse gases in units of milliwatts per square meter per country or microwatts per square meter per person, a metric we term international natural debt (IND). Australia becomes the most indebted large country per capita because of high CH4 emissions, overtaking the United States, which is highest for CO2(f). The differences between the INDs of developing and developed countries decline but remain large. We use IND to assess the relative reduction in IND from choosing between CO2(f) and CH4`control measures and to contrast the imposed versus experienced health impacts from climate change. Based on 2005 emissions, the same hypothetical impact on world 2050 IND could be achieved by decreasing CH4 emissions by 46% as stopping CO2 emissions entirely, but with substantial differences among countries, implying differential optimal strategies. Adding CH4 shifts the basic narrative about differential international accountability for climate change. PMID:23847202

Phosphorus acquisition and utilisation in crop legumes under global change.

PubMed

Pang, Jiayin; Ryan, Megan H; Lambers, Hans; Siddique, Kadambot Hm

2018-05-28

Improving phosphorus (P)-use efficiency in legumes is a worldwide challenge in the face of an increasing world population, dwindling global rock phosphate reserves, the relatively high P demand of legumes and global change. This review focuses on P acquisition of crop legumes in response to climate change. We advocate further studies on: firstly, the response of carboxylate exudation, mycorrhizas and root morphology to climate change and their role in P acquisition as dependent on edaphic factors; secondly, developing intercropping systems with a combination of a legume and another crop species to enhance P acquisition; and thirdly, the impact of the interactions of the major climate change factors on P acquisition in the field. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Threshold responses to interacting global changes in a California grassland ecosystem

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Field, Christopher; Mooney, Harold; Vitousek, Peter

2015-02-02

Building on the history and infrastructure of the Jasper Ridge Global Change Experiment, we conducted experiments to explore the potential for single and combined global changes to stimulate fundamental type changes in ecosystems that start the experiment as California annual grassland. Using a carefully orchestrated set of seedling introductions, followed by careful study and later removal, the grassland was poised to enable two major kinds of transitions that occur in real life and that have major implications for ecosystem structure, function, and services. These are transitions from grassland to shrubland/forest and grassland to thistle patch. The experiment took place inmore » the context of 4 global change factors – warming, elevated CO 2, N deposition, and increased precipitation – in a full-factorial array, present as all possible 1, 2, 3, and 4-factor combinations, with each combination replicated 8 times.« less

Future generations, environmental ethics, and global environmental change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tonn, B.E.

1994-12-31

The elements of a methodology to be employed by the global community to investigate the consequences of global environmental change upon future generations and global ecosystems are outlined in this paper. The methodology is comprised of two major components: A possible future worlds model; and a formal, citizen-oriented process to judge whether the possible future worlds potentially inheritable by future generations meet obligational standards. A broad array of descriptors of future worlds can be encompassed within this framework, including survival of ecosystems and other species and satisfaction of human concerns. The methodology expresses fundamental psychological motivations and human myths journey,more » renewal, mother earth, and being-in-nature-and incorporates several viewpoints on obligations to future generations-maintaining options, fairness, humility, and the cause of humanity. The methodology overcomes several severe drawbacks of the economic-based methods most commonly used for global environmental policy analysis.« less

Coastline degradation as an indicator of global change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nicholls, Robert J.; Woodroffe, Colin D.; Burkett, Virginia; Letcher, Trevor M.

2009-01-01

Finding a climate change signal on coasts is more problematic than often assumed. Coasts undergo natural dynamics at many scales, with erosion and recovery in response to climate variability such as El Niño, or extreme events such as storms and infrequent tsunamis. Additionally, humans have had enormous impacts on most coasts, overshadowing most changes that one can presently attribute directly to climate change. Each area of coast is experiencing its own pattern of relative sea-level change and climate change, making discrimination of the component of degradation that results from climate change problems. The best examples of a climate influence are related to temperature rise at low and high latitudes, as seen by the impacts on coral reefs and polar coasts, respectively. Observations through the twentieth century demonstrate the importance of understanding the impacts of sea-level rise and climate change in the context of multiple drivers of change; this will remain a challenge under a more rapidly changing climate. Nevertheless, there are emerging signs that climate change provides a global threat—sea ice is retreating, permafrost in coastal areas is widely melting. Reefs are bleaching more often, and the sea is rising—amplifying widespread trends of subsidence and threatening low-lying areas. To enhance the sustainability of coastal systems, management strategies will also need to address this challenge, focusing on the drivers that are dominant at each section of coast. Global warming through the twentieth century has caused a series of changes with important implications for coastal areas. These include rising temperatures, rising sea level, increasing CO2 concentrations with an associated reduction in seawater pH, and more intense precipitation on average.

Global Change Encyclopedia - A project for the international space year

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cihlar, J.; Simard, R.; Manore, M.; Baker, R.; Clark, D.; Kineman, J.; Allen, J.; Ruzek, M.

1991-01-01

'Global Change Encyclopedia' is a project for the International Space Year in 1992. The project will produce a comprehensive set of satellite and other global data with relevance to studies of global change and of the earth as a system. These data will be packaged on CD-ROMs, accompanied by appropriate software for access, display and manipulation. On behalf of the Canadian Space Agency, the project is being carried out by the Canada Centre for Remote Sensing, with the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration as major contributors. This paper highlights the background leading to the project, the concept and principal characteristics of the Encyclopedia itself, and the current status and plans.

Competition-interaction landscapes for the joint response of forests to climate change.

PubMed

Clark, James S; Bell, David M; Kwit, Matthew C; Zhu, Kai

2014-06-01

The recent global increase in forest mortality episodes could not have been predicted from current vegetation models that are calibrated to regional climate data. Physiological studies show that mortality results from interactions between climate and competition at the individual scale. Models of forest response to climate do not include interactions because they are hard to estimate and require long-term observations on individual trees obtained at frequent (annual) intervals. Interactions involve multiple tree responses that can only be quantified if these responses are estimated as a joint distribution. A new approach provides estimates of climate–competition interactions in two critical ways, (i) among individuals, as a joint distribution of responses to combinations of inputs, such as resources and climate, and (ii) within individuals, due to allocation requirements that control outputs, such as demographic rates. Application to 20 years of data from climate and competition gradients shows that interactions control forest responses, and their omission from models leads to inaccurate predictions. Species most vulnerable to increasing aridity are not those that show the largest growth response to precipitation, but rather depend on interactions with the local resource environment. This first assessment of regional species vulnerability that is based on the scale at which climate operates, individual trees competing for carbon and water, supports predictions of potential savannification in the southeastern US.

Diagnostic accuracy of point-of-care ultrasound for evaluation of early blood-induced joint changes: Comparison with MRI.

PubMed

Foppen, W; van der Schaaf, I C; Beek, F J A; Mali, W P T M; Fischer, K

2018-05-23

Recurrent joint bleeding is the hallmark of haemophilia. Synovial hypertrophy observed with Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) is associated with an increased risk of future joint bleeding. The aim of this study was to investigate whether point-of-care ultrasound (POC-US) is an accurate alternative for MRI for the detection of early joint changes. In this single centre diagnostic accuracy study, bilateral knees and ankles of haemophilia patients with no or minimal arthropathy on X-rays were scanned using POC-US and 3 Tesla MRI. POC-US was performed by 1 medical doctor, blinded for MRI, according to the "Haemophilia Early Arthropathy Detection with Ultrasound" (HEAD-US) protocol. MRIs were independently scored by 2 radiologists, blinded for clinical data and ultrasound results. Diagnostic accuracy parameters were calculated with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Knees and ankles of 24 haemophilia patients (96 joints), aged 18-34, were studied. Synovial hypertrophy on MRI was observed in 20% of joints. POC-US for synovial tissue was correct (overall accuracy) in 97% (CI: 91-99) with a positive predictive value of 94% (CI: 73-100) and a negative predictive value of 97% (CI: 91-100). The overall accuracy of POC-US for cartilage abnormalities was 91% (CI: 83-96) and for bone surface irregularities 97% (CI: 91-99). POC-US could accurately assess synovial hypertrophy, bone surface irregularities and cartilage abnormalities in haemophilia patients with limited joint disease. As POC-US is an accurate and available alternative for MRI, it can be used for routine evaluation of early joint changes. © 2018 The Authors. Haemophilia published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

CTFS-ForestGEO: a worldwide network monitoring forests in an era of global change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anderson-Teixeira, Kristina J.; Davies, Stuart J.; Bennett, Amy C.

2014-09-25

Global change is impacting forests worldwide, threatening biodiversity and ecosystem services, including climate regulation. Understanding how forests respond is critical to forest conservation and climate protection. This review describes an international network of 59 long-term forest dynamic research sites useful for characterizing forest responses to global change. The broad suite of measurements made at the CTFS-ForestGEO sites make it possible to investigate the complex ways in which global change is impacting forest dynamics. ongoing research across the network is yielding insights into how and why the forests are changing, and continued monitoring will provide vital contributions to understanding worldwide forestmore » diversity and dynamics in a era of global change« less

The change in the diffusion of water in normal and degenerative lumbar intervertebral discs following joint mobilization compared to prone lying.

PubMed

Beattie, Paul F; Donley, Jonathan W; Arnot, Cathy F; Miller, Ronald

2009-01-01

Prospective, repeated measures obtained under treatment and control conditions. The purposes of this study were to provide preliminary evidence regarding the immediate change in the diffusion of water in the nuclear region of normal and degenerative lumbar intervertebral discs (IVDs) following a single session of lumbar joint mobilization, and to compare these findings to the immediate change in the diffusion of water following a 10-minute session of prone lying. There is conflicting evidence regarding the effectiveness and efficacy of lumbar joint mobilization. Increased knowledge of the physiologic effects of lumbar joint mobilization can lead to refinement of its clinical application. A total of 24 people (15 males and 9 females), ranging in age from 22 to 58 years, participated in this study. All subjects had a history of activity-limiting low back pain. Diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance images (DW-MRIs) were obtained immediately before and after a 10-minute session of lumbar joint mobilization. At least 1 month later, a second session was performed in which DW-MRIs were obtained immediately before and after a 10-minute session of prone lying. Following lumbar joint mobilization, a significant increase (P = .002) in the mean values for diffusion of water was observed within degenerative IVDs at L5-S1 (22.2% increase; effect size, 0.97). Degenerative IVDs at L1-2 to L4-5 and normal IVDs at L1-2 to L5-S1 did not demonstrate a change in diffusion following joint mobilization. Prone lying was not associated with a change in diffusion for normal or degenerative IVDs. The stimulus provided by lumbar joint mobilization may influence the diffusion of water in degenerative IVDs at L5-S1; however, these are preliminary findings and the relationship of these findings to pain and function needs further investigation.

Middle School Students' Conceptual Change in Global Climate Change: Using Argumentation to Foster Knowledge Construction

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Golden, Barry W.

2011-01-01

This research examined middle school student conceptions about global climate change (GCC) and the change these conceptions undergo during an argument driven instructional unit. The theoretical framework invoked for this study is the "framework theory" of conceptual change (Vosniadou, 2007a). This theory posits that students do not…

Providing Context for Complexity: Using Infographics and Conceptual Models to Teach Global Change Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bean, J. R.; White, L. D.

2015-12-01

Understanding modern and historical global changes requires interdisciplinary knowledge of the physical and life sciences. The Understanding Global Change website from the UC Museum of Paleontology will use a focal infographic that unifies diverse content often taught in separate K-12 science units. This visualization tool provides scientists with a structure for presenting research within the broad context of global change, and supports educators with a framework for teaching and assessing student understanding of complex global change processes. This new approach to teaching the science of global change is currently being piloted and refined based on feedback from educators and scientists in anticipation of a 2016 website launch. Global change concepts are categorized within the infographic as causes of global change (e.g., burning of fossil fuels, volcanism), ongoing Earth system processes (e.g., ocean circulation, the greenhouse effect), and the changes scientists measure in Earth's physical and biological systems (e.g., temperature, extinctions/radiations). The infographic will appear on all website content pages and provides a template for the creation of flowcharts, which are conceptual models that allow teachers and students to visualize the interdependencies and feedbacks among processes in the atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, and geosphere. The development of this resource is timely given that the newly adopted Next Generation Science Standards emphasize cross-cutting concepts, including model building, and Earth system science. Flowchart activities will be available on the website to scaffold inquiry-based lessons, determine student preconceptions, and assess student content knowledge. The infographic has already served as a learning and evaluation tool during professional development workshops at UC Berkeley, Stanford University, and the Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History. At these workshops, scientists and educators used the infographic

Global warming: China’s contribution to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spracklen, Dominick V.

2016-03-01

Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil-fuel use in China have grown dramatically in the past few decades, yet it emerges that the country's relative contribution to global climate change has remained surprisingly constant. See Letter p.357

A Look at Global Climate Change Through Papal Encyclicals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gutry-Korycka, Małgorzata

2017-12-01

The aim of this article is a comprehensive review of Papal Encyclicals in the context of global environmental and climatic change, against the backdrop of the activity of multinational institutions. The Encyclicals look to the future in teaching the faithful, in a manner which indicates that they are part of a goal-oriented policy, both in terms of scientific research, and concrete economic, social, and geopolitical activity. Attention has also been paid to the relationship between the activity of humankind, and global environmental change, particularly of the biotic and climatic variety. If this aggressive anthropogenic activity cannot be deemed responsible for initiating global warming, it may certainly be seen to have "encouraged" it. The impulses behind sustainable development, as well as the instruments of its implementation, and the inspiration behind the idea, have also been discussed. The achievement of this goal, necessitating the balancing of anthropological aspirations and the long-term security of the environment are also referenced in the Encyclicals.

Ecosystem oceanography for global change in fisheries.

PubMed

Cury, Philippe Maurice; Shin, Yunne-Jai; Planque, Benjamin; Durant, Joël Marcel; Fromentin, Jean-Marc; Kramer-Schadt, Stephanie; Stenseth, Nils Christian; Travers, Morgane; Grimm, Volker

2008-06-01

Overexploitation and climate change are increasingly causing unanticipated changes in marine ecosystems, such as higher variability in fish recruitment and shifts in species dominance. An ecosystem-based approach to fisheries attempts to address these effects by integrating populations, food webs and fish habitats at different scales. Ecosystem models represent indispensable tools to achieve this objective. However, a balanced research strategy is needed to avoid overly complex models. Ecosystem oceanography represents such a balanced strategy that relates ecosystem components and their interactions to climate change and exploitation. It aims at developing realistic and robust models at different levels of organisation and addressing specific questions in a global change context while systematically exploring the ever-increasing amount of biological and environmental data.

Climate Change of 4°C GlobalWarming above Pre-industrial Levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xiaoxin; Jiang, Dabang; Lang, Xianmei

2018-07-01

Using a set of numerical experiments from 39 CMIP5 climate models, we project the emergence time for 4°C global warming with respect to pre-industrial levels and associated climate changes under the RCP8.5 greenhouse gas concentration scenario. Results show that, according to the 39 models, the median year in which 4°C global warming will occur is 2084. Based on the median results of models that project a 4°C global warming by 2100, land areas will generally exhibit stronger warming than the oceans annually and seasonally, and the strongest enhancement occurs in the Arctic, with the exception of the summer season. Change signals for temperature go outside its natural internal variabilities globally, and the signal-tonoise ratio averages 9.6 for the annual mean and ranges from 6.3 to 7.2 for the seasonal mean over the globe, with the greatest values appearing at low latitudes because of low noise. Decreased precipitation generally occurs in the subtropics, whilst increased precipitation mainly appears at high latitudes. The precipitation changes in most of the high latitudes are greater than the background variability, and the global mean signal-to-noise ratio is 0.5 and ranges from 0.2 to 0.4 for the annual and seasonal means, respectively. Attention should be paid to limiting global warming to 1.5°C, in which case temperature and precipitation will experience a far more moderate change than the natural internal variability. Large inter-model disagreement appears at high latitudes for temperature changes and at mid and low latitudes for precipitation changes. Overall, the intermodel consistency is better for temperature than for precipitation.

Understanding the Changes in Global Crop Yields Through Changes in Climate and Technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Najafi, Ehsan; Devineni, Naresh; Khanbilvardi, Reza M.; Kogan, Felix

2018-03-01

During the last few decades, the global agricultural production has risen and technology enhancement is still contributing to yield growth. However, population growth, water crisis, deforestation, and climate change threaten the global food security. An understanding of the variables that caused past changes in crop yields can help improve future crop prediction models. In this article, we present a comprehensive global analysis of the changes in the crop yields and how they relate to different large-scale and regional climate variables, climate change variables and technology in a unified framework. A new multilevel model for yield prediction at the country level is developed and demonstrated. The structural relationships between average yield and climate attributes as well as trends are estimated simultaneously. All countries are modeled in a single multilevel model with partial pooling to automatically group and reduce estimation uncertainties. El Niño-southern oscillation (ENSO), Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), geopotential height anomalies (GPH), historical carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration and country-based time series of GDP per capita as an approximation of technology measurement are used as predictors to estimate annual agricultural crop yields for each country from 1961 to 2013. Results indicate that these variables can explain the variability in historical crop yields for most of the countries and the model performs well under out-of-sample verifications. While some countries were not generally affected by climatic factors, PDSI and GPH acted both positively and negatively in different regions for crop yields in many countries.

The Influence of the "Straighten Your Back" Command on the Sagittal Spinal Curvatures in Children with Generalized Joint Hypermobility.

PubMed

Czaprowski, Dariusz; Pawłowska, Paulina; Kolwicz-Gańko, Aleksandra; Sitarski, Dominik; Kędra, Agnieszka

2017-01-01

Objectives . The aim of the study was to assess the change of sagittal spinal curvatures in children with generalized joint hypermobility (GJH) instructed with "straighten your back" command (SYB). Methods . The study included 56 children with GJH. The control group consisted of 193 children. Sacral slope (SS), lumbar lordosis (LL), global thoracic kyphosis (TK), lower thoracic kyphosis (LK), and upper thoracic kyphosis (UK) were assessed with Saunders inclinometer both in spontaneous positions (standing and sitting) and after the SYB. Results . Children with GJH after SYB presented the following: in standing, increase in SS and decrease in TK, LK, and UK ( P < 0.01), with LL not significantly changed; in sitting: decrease in global thoracic kyphosis (35.5° (SD 20.5) versus 21.0° (SD 15.5), P < 0.001) below the standards proposed in the literature (30-40°) and flattening of its lower part ( P < 0.001). The same changes were observed in the control group. Conclusions . In children with generalized joint hypermobility, the "straighten your back" command leads to excessive reduction of the global thoracic kyphosis and flattening of its lower part. Therefore, the "straighten your back" command should not be used to achieve the optimal standing and sitting positions.

Changing Schools in an Era of Globalization. Routledge Research in Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, John Chi-Kin; Caldwell, Brian J.

2011-01-01

Much has been written about globalization and the challenge of preparing young people for the new world of work and life in times of complexity and continuous change. However, few works have examined how globalization has and will continue to shape education in the East. This volume discusses education within the context of globalization and…

The impacts of climate change on global irrigation water requirements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, X.; Cai, X.

2011-12-01

Climate change tends to affect the irrigation water requirement of current irrigated agricultural land, and also changes the water availability for current rain-fed land by the end of this century. We use the most up-to-date climatic and crop datasets (e.g., global irrigated/rain-fed crop areas and grid level crop growing calendar (Portmann, Siebert and Döll, 2010, Global Biogeochemical Cycles 24)) to evaluate the requirements of currently irrigated land and the water deficit for rain-fed land for all major crops under current and projected climate. Six general circulation models (GCMs) under two emission scenarios, A1B & B1, are assembled using two methods, the Simple Average Method (SAM) and Root Mean Square Error Ensemble Method (RMSEMM), to deal with the GCM regional variability. It is found that the global irrigation requirement and the water deficit are both going to increase significantly under all scenarios, particularly under the A1B emission scenario. For example, the projected irrigation requirement is expected to increase by about 2500 million m3 for wheat, 3200 million m3 for maize and another 3300 million m3 for rice. At the same time, the water deficit for current rain-fed cropland will be widened by around 3000, 4000, 2100 million m3 for wheat, maize and rice respectively. Regional analysis is conducted for Africa, China, Europe, India, South America and the United States. It is found that the U.S. may expect the greatest rise in irrigation requirements for wheat and maize, while the South America may suffer the greatest increase for rice. In addition, Africa and the U.S. may face a larger water deficit for both wheat and maize on rain-fed land, and South America just for rice. In summary, climate change is likely to bring severe challenges for irrigation systems and make global water shortage even worse by the end of this century. These pressures will call for extensive adaptation measures. The change in crop water requirements and availability

Early Changes of the Cortical Micro-Channel System in the Bare Area of the Joints of Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis.

PubMed

Werner, David; Simon, David; Englbrecht, Matthias; Stemmler, Fabian; Simon, Christoph; Berlin, Andreas; Haschka, Judith; Renner, Nina; Buder, Thomas; Engelke, Klaus; Hueber, Axel J; Rech, Jürgen; Schett, Georg; Kleyer, Arnd

2017-08-01

To characterize the specific structural properties of the erosion-prone bare area of the human joint, and to search for early microstructural changes in this region during rheumatoid arthritis (RA). In the initial part of the study, human cadaveric hand joints were examined for exact localization of the bare area of the metacarpal heads, followed by detection of cortical micro-channels (CoMiCs) in this region by high-resolution peripheral quantitative computed tomography (HR-pQCT) and, after anatomic dissection, validation of the presence of CoMiCs by micro-computed tomography (micro-CT). In the second part of the study, the number and distribution of CoMiCs were analyzed in 107 RA patients compared to 105 healthy individuals of similar age and sex distribution. Investigation by HR-pQCT combined with adaptive thresholding allowed the detection of CoMiCs in the bare area of human cadaveric joints. The existence of CoMiCs in the bare area was additionally validated by micro-CT. In healthy individuals, the number of CoMiCs increased with age. RA patients showed significantly more CoMiCs compared to healthy individuals (mean ± SD 112.9 ± 54.7/joint versus 75.2 ± 41.9/joint; P < 0.001), with 20-49-year-old RA patients exhibiting similar numbers of CoMiCs as observed in healthy individuals older than age 65 years. Importantly, CoMiCs were already found in RA patients very early in their disease course, with enrichment in the erosion-prone radial side of the joint. CoMiCs represent a new form of structural change in the joints of patients with RA. Although the number of CoMiCs increases with age, RA patients develop CoMiCs much earlier in life, and such changes can even occur at the onset of the disease. CoMiCs therefore represent an interesting new opportunity to assess structural changes in RA. © 2017, American College of Rheumatology.

75 FR 33306 - Notice of Meeting Location Change and Joint Meeting of FASAB and GASB

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-06-11

... meeting is to discuss: --Measurement Attributes, --Reporting Model, --Cost Accounting, and --Governance... FEDERAL ACCOUNTING STANDARDS ADVISORY BOARD Notice of Meeting Location Change and Joint Meeting of FASAB and GASB AGENCY: Federal Accounting Standards Advisory Board. ACTION: Notice. Board Action...

A global perspective on Glacial- to Interglacial variability change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rehfeld, Kira; Münch, Thomas; Ho, Sze Ling; Laepple, Thomas

2017-04-01

Changes in climate variability are more important for society than changes in the mean state alone. While we will be facing a large-scale shift of the mean climate in the future, its implications for climate variability are not well constrained. Here we quantify changes in temperature variability as climate shifted from the Last Glacial cold to the Holocene warm period. Greenland ice core oxygen isotope records provide evidence of this climatic shift, and are used as reference datasets in many palaeoclimate studies worldwide. A striking feature in these records is pronounced millennial variability in the Glacial, and a distinct reduction in variance in the Holocene. We present quantitative estimates of the change in variability on 500- to 1500-year timescales based on a global compilation of high-resolution proxy records for temperature which span both the Glacial and the Holocene. The estimates are derived based on power spectral analysis, and corrected using estimates of the proxy signal-to-noise ratios. We show that, on a global scale, variability at the Glacial maximum is five times higher than during the Holocene, with a possible range of 3-10 times. The spatial pattern of the variability change is latitude-dependent. While the tropics show no changes in variability, mid-latitude changes are higher. A slight overall reduction in variability in the centennial to millennial range is found in Antarctica. The variability decrease in the Greenland ice core oxygen isotope records is larger than in any other proxy dataset. These results therefore contradict the view of a globally quiescent Holocene following the instable Glacial, and imply that, in terms of centennial to millennial temperature variability, the two states may be more similar than previously thought.

NASA NDATC Global Climate Change Education Initiative

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, B.; Wood, E.; Meyer, D.; Maynard, N.; Pandya, R. E.

2009-12-01

This project aligns with NASA’s Strategic Goal 3A - “Study Earth from space to advance scientific understanding and meet societal needs and focuses on funding from the GCCE Funding Category 2: Strengthen the Teaching and Learning About Global Climate Change Within Formal Education Systems. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Report (2007) those communities with the least amount of resources will be most vulnerable, and least likely to adapt to the impacts brought on by a changing climate. Further, the level of vulnerability of these communities is directly correlated with their ability to implement short, medium and long range mitigation measures. The North Dakota Association of Tribal Colleges (NDATC) has established a climate change education initiative among its six member Tribal Colleges and Universities (TCUs). The goal of this project is to enhance the TCUs capacity to educate their constituents on the science of climate change and mitigation strategies specifically as they apply to Indian Country. NDATC is comprised of six American Indian tribally chartered colleges (TCUs) which include: Cankdeska Cikana Community College, serving the Spirit Lake Dakota Nation; Fort Berthold Community College, serving the Mandan, Hidatsa, and Arikara Nation; Sitting Bull College, serving the Hunkpapa Lakota and Dakota Nation; Turtle Mountain Community College, serving the Turtle Mountain Band of Chippewa; Sisseton Wahpeton College serving the Sisseton and Wahpeton Dakota Nation, and United Tribes Technical College, serving over 70 Tribal groups from across the United States. The purpose of this project is to (1) increase awareness of climate change and its potential impacts in Indian Country through education for students, faculty and presidents of the TCUs as well as Tribal leadership; (2) increase the capacity of TCUs to respond to this global threat on behalf of tribal people; (3) develop climate change mitigation strategies relevant to Indian

Empowering people to change occupational behaviours to address critical global issues.

PubMed

Ikiugu, Moses N; Westerfield, Madeline A; Lien, Jamie M; Theisen, Emily R; Cerny, Shana L; Nissen, Ranelle M

2015-06-01

The greatest threat to human well-being in this century is climate change and related global issues. We examined the effectiveness of the Modified Instrumentalism in Occupational Therapy model as a framework for facilitating occupational behaviour change to address climate change and related issues. Eleven individuals participated in this mixed-methods single-subject-design study. Data were gathered using the Modified Assessment and Intervention Instrument for Instrumentalism in Occupational Therapy and Daily Occupational Inventories. Quantitative data were analyzed using two- and three-standard deviation band methods. Qualitative data were analyzed using heuristic phenomenological procedures. Occupational performance changed for five participants. Participants' feelings shifted from frustration and helplessness to empowerment and a desire for action. They felt empowered to find occupation-based solutions to the global issues. Occupation-based interventions that increase personal awareness of the connection between occupational performance and global issues could empower people to be agents for action to ameliorate the issues.

Modeling global change impacts on Northern Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kicklighter, D. W.; Monier, E.; Sokolov, A. P.; Zhuang, Q.; Melillo, J. M.; Reilly, J. M.

2016-12-01

Northern Eurasia is a major player in the global carbon budget and includes roughly 70% of the Earth's boreal forest and more than two-thirds of the Earth's permafrost. The region has experienced dramatic climate change (increase in temperature, growing season length, floods and droughts), natural disturbances (wildfires and insect outbreaks), and land-use change (timber harvest, urbanization, expansion and abandonment of agricultural lands) over the past century. These large environmental and socioeconomic impacts have major implications for the carbon cycle in the region. Northern Eurasia is made up of a diverse set of ecosystems that range from deserts to forests, with significant areas of croplands, pastures, and urban areas. As such, it represents a complex system with substantial challenges for the modeling community. We provide an overview of past, ongoing and possible future efforts of the integrated modeling of global change for Northern Eurasia. First, we review the variety of existing modeling approaches to investigate specific components of Earth system dynamics in the region. While there are a limited number of studies that try to integrate various aspects of the Earth system through scale, teleconnections or processes, there are few systematic analyses of the various feedbacks among components within the Earth system. As a result, there is a lack of knowledge of the relative importance of such feedbacks, and it is unclear how relevant current studies, which do not account for these feedbacks, may be for policymaking. Next, we review the role of Earth system models, and their advantages/limitations compared to detailed single component models. We further introduce human activity models (e.g., global trade, economic models, demographic models), and the need for Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), a suite of models that couple human activity models to Earth System Models. Finally, we examine emerging issues that require a representation of the coupled

Global change information support - A north/south coalition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blados, Walter R.; Cotter, Gladys A.

1993-01-01

On a daily basis we become more aware that our planet, earth, exists in a delicate balance; we, its inhabitants, must be informed caretakers. Global change communities have emerged around the globe to address this multidisciplinary subject. Information systems that integrate text, bibliographic, numeric and visual data are needed to support these global change communities. No one information center can hope to collect all the relevant data. Rather, we must form a coalition, North and South, to collect and provide access to disparate, multidisciplinary sources of information, and to develop standardized tools for documenting and manipulating this data and information. International resources need to be mobilized in a coordinated manner to move us towards this goal. This paper looks at emerging information technologies that can be utilized to build such a system, and outlines some cooperative North/South strategies.

Global change information support: A north-south coalition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blados, Walter R.; Cotter, Gladys A.

1993-01-01

On a daily basis we become more aware that our planet, earth, exists in a delicate balance; we, its inhabitants, must be informed caretakers. Global change communities have emerged around the globe to address this multidisciplinary subject. Information systems that integrate text, bibliographic, numeric and visual data are needed to support these global change communities. No one information center can hope to collect all the relevant data. Rather, we must form a coalition, North and South, to collect and provide access to disparate, multidisciplinary sources of information, and to develop standardized tools for documenting and manipulating this data and information. International resources need to be mobilized in a coordinated manner to move us towards this goal. This paper looks at emerging information technologies that can be utilized to build such a system, and outlines some cooperative North/South strategies.

USGCRP assessments: Meeting the challenges of climate and global change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dickinson, T.; Kuperberg, J. M.

2016-12-01

The United States Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) is a confederation of the research arms of 13 Federal departments and agencies. Its mission is to build a knowledge base that informs human responses to climate and global change through coordinated and integrated Federal programs of research, education, communication, and decision support. USGCRP has supported several initiatives to promote better understanding of climate change impacts on health, support responses, and build on the progress of the 2014 National Climate Assessment. Most recently, USGCRP released a new report, "The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health: A Scientific Assessment". This presentation will provide an overview of USGCRP, highlight the importance of assessments, and introduce ways in which assessment findings and underlying data can be translated into critical tools to build resilience.

The effects of global change upon United States air quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzalez-Abraham, R.; Chung, S. H.; Avise, J.; Lamb, B.; Salathé, E. P., Jr.; Nolte, C. G.; Loughlin, D.; Guenther, A.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Duhl, T.; Zhang, Y.; Streets, D. G.

2015-11-01

To understand more fully the effects of global changes on ambient concentrations of ozone and particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter smaller than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) in the United States (US), we conducted a comprehensive modeling effort to evaluate explicitly the effects of changes in climate, biogenic emissions, land use and global/regional anthropogenic emissions on ozone and PM2.5 concentrations and composition. Results from the ECHAM5 global climate model driven with the A1B emission scenario from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to provide regional meteorological fields. We developed air quality simulations using the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) chemical transport model for two nested domains with 220 and 36 km horizontal grid cell resolution for a semi-hemispheric domain and a continental United States (US) domain, respectively. The semi-hemispheric domain was used to evaluate the impact of projected global emissions changes on US air quality. WRF meteorological fields were used to calculate current (2000s) and future (2050s) biogenic emissions using the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN). For the semi-hemispheric domain CMAQ simulations, present-day global emissions inventories were used and projected to the 2050s based on the IPCC A1B scenario. Regional anthropogenic emissions were obtained from the US Environmental Protection Agency National Emission Inventory 2002 (EPA NEI2002) and projected to the future using the MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL) energy system model assuming a business as usual scenario that extends current decade emission regulations through 2050. Our results suggest that daily maximum 8 h average ozone (DM8O) concentrations will increase in a range between 2 to 12 parts per billion (ppb) across most of the continental US. The highest increase occurs in the South, Central and Midwest regions of the US due to