Sample records for joint probability density

  1. Exact joint density-current probability function for the asymmetric exclusion process.

    PubMed

    Depken, Martin; Stinchcombe, Robin

    2004-07-23

    We study the asymmetric simple exclusion process with open boundaries and derive the exact form of the joint probability function for the occupation number and the current through the system. We further consider the thermodynamic limit, showing that the resulting distribution is non-Gaussian and that the density fluctuations have a discontinuity at the continuous phase transition, while the current fluctuations are continuous. The derivations are performed by using the standard operator algebraic approach and by the introduction of new operators satisfying a modified version of the original algebra. Copyright 2004 The American Physical Society

  2. The non-Gaussian joint probability density function of slope and elevation for a nonlinear gravity wave field. [in ocean surface

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Huang, N. E.; Long, S. R.; Bliven, L. F.; Tung, C.-C.

    1984-01-01

    On the basis of the mapping method developed by Huang et al. (1983), an analytic expression for the non-Gaussian joint probability density function of slope and elevation for nonlinear gravity waves is derived. Various conditional and marginal density functions are also obtained through the joint density function. The analytic results are compared with a series of carefully controlled laboratory observations, and good agreement is noted. Furthermore, the laboratory wind wave field observations indicate that the capillary or capillary-gravity waves may not be the dominant components in determining the total roughness of the wave field. Thus, the analytic results, though derived specifically for the gravity waves, may have more general applications.

  3. Excluding joint probabilities from quantum theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allahverdyan, Armen E.; Danageozian, Arshag

    2018-03-01

    Quantum theory does not provide a unique definition for the joint probability of two noncommuting observables, which is the next important question after the Born's probability for a single observable. Instead, various definitions were suggested, e.g., via quasiprobabilities or via hidden-variable theories. After reviewing open issues of the joint probability, we relate it to quantum imprecise probabilities, which are noncontextual and are consistent with all constraints expected from a quantum probability. We study two noncommuting observables in a two-dimensional Hilbert space and show that there is no precise joint probability that applies for any quantum state and is consistent with imprecise probabilities. This contrasts with theorems by Bell and Kochen-Specker that exclude joint probabilities for more than two noncommuting observables, in Hilbert space with dimension larger than two. If measurement contexts are included into the definition, joint probabilities are not excluded anymore, but they are still constrained by imprecise probabilities.

  4. On the joint spectral density of bivariate random sequences. Thesis Technical Report No. 21

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Aalfs, David D.

    1995-01-01

    For univariate random sequences, the power spectral density acts like a probability density function of the frequencies present in the sequence. This dissertation extends that concept to bivariate random sequences. For this purpose, a function called the joint spectral density is defined that represents a joint probability weighing of the frequency content of pairs of random sequences. Given a pair of random sequences, the joint spectral density is not uniquely determined in the absence of any constraints. Two approaches to constraining the sequences are suggested: (1) assume the sequences are the margins of some stationary random field, (2) assume the sequences conform to a particular model that is linked to the joint spectral density. For both approaches, the properties of the resulting sequences are investigated in some detail, and simulation is used to corroborate theoretical results. It is concluded that under either of these two constraints, the joint spectral density can be computed from the non-stationary cross-correlation.

  5. Joint probabilities and quantum cognition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Barros, J. Acacio

    2012-12-01

    In this paper we discuss the existence of joint probability distributions for quantumlike response computations in the brain. We do so by focusing on a contextual neural-oscillator model shown to reproduce the main features of behavioral stimulus-response theory. We then exhibit a simple example of contextual random variables not having a joint probability distribution, and describe how such variables can be obtained from neural oscillators, but not from a quantum observable algebra.

  6. Evaluation of joint probability density function models for turbulent nonpremixed combustion with complex chemistry

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, N. S. A.; Frolov, S. M.; Bowman, C. T.

    1996-01-01

    Two types of mixing sub-models are evaluated in connection with a joint-scalar probability density function method for turbulent nonpremixed combustion. Model calculations are made and compared to simulation results for homogeneously distributed methane-air reaction zones mixing and reacting in decaying turbulence within a two-dimensional enclosed domain. The comparison is arranged to ensure that both the simulation and model calculations a) make use of exactly the same chemical mechanism, b) do not involve non-unity Lewis number transport of species, and c) are free from radiation loss. The modified Curl mixing sub-model was found to provide superior predictive accuracy over the simple relaxation-to-mean submodel in the case studied. Accuracy to within 10-20% was found for global means of major species and temperature; however, nitric oxide prediction accuracy was lower and highly dependent on the choice of mixing sub-model. Both mixing submodels were found to produce non-physical mixing behavior for mixture fractions removed from the immediate reaction zone. A suggestion for a further modified Curl mixing sub-model is made in connection with earlier work done in the field.

  7. Series approximation to probability densities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cohen, L.

    2018-04-01

    One of the historical and fundamental uses of the Edgeworth and Gram-Charlier series is to "correct" a Gaussian density when it is determined that the probability density under consideration has moments that do not correspond to the Gaussian [5, 6]. There is a fundamental difficulty with these methods in that if the series are truncated, then the resulting approximate density is not manifestly positive. The aim of this paper is to attempt to expand a probability density so that if it is truncated it will still be manifestly positive.

  8. High throughput nonparametric probability density estimation.

    PubMed

    Farmer, Jenny; Jacobs, Donald

    2018-01-01

    In high throughput applications, such as those found in bioinformatics and finance, it is important to determine accurate probability distribution functions despite only minimal information about data characteristics, and without using human subjectivity. Such an automated process for univariate data is implemented to achieve this goal by merging the maximum entropy method with single order statistics and maximum likelihood. The only required properties of the random variables are that they are continuous and that they are, or can be approximated as, independent and identically distributed. A quasi-log-likelihood function based on single order statistics for sampled uniform random data is used to empirically construct a sample size invariant universal scoring function. Then a probability density estimate is determined by iteratively improving trial cumulative distribution functions, where better estimates are quantified by the scoring function that identifies atypical fluctuations. This criterion resists under and over fitting data as an alternative to employing the Bayesian or Akaike information criterion. Multiple estimates for the probability density reflect uncertainties due to statistical fluctuations in random samples. Scaled quantile residual plots are also introduced as an effective diagnostic to visualize the quality of the estimated probability densities. Benchmark tests show that estimates for the probability density function (PDF) converge to the true PDF as sample size increases on particularly difficult test probability densities that include cases with discontinuities, multi-resolution scales, heavy tails, and singularities. These results indicate the method has general applicability for high throughput statistical inference.

  9. High throughput nonparametric probability density estimation

    PubMed Central

    Farmer, Jenny

    2018-01-01

    In high throughput applications, such as those found in bioinformatics and finance, it is important to determine accurate probability distribution functions despite only minimal information about data characteristics, and without using human subjectivity. Such an automated process for univariate data is implemented to achieve this goal by merging the maximum entropy method with single order statistics and maximum likelihood. The only required properties of the random variables are that they are continuous and that they are, or can be approximated as, independent and identically distributed. A quasi-log-likelihood function based on single order statistics for sampled uniform random data is used to empirically construct a sample size invariant universal scoring function. Then a probability density estimate is determined by iteratively improving trial cumulative distribution functions, where better estimates are quantified by the scoring function that identifies atypical fluctuations. This criterion resists under and over fitting data as an alternative to employing the Bayesian or Akaike information criterion. Multiple estimates for the probability density reflect uncertainties due to statistical fluctuations in random samples. Scaled quantile residual plots are also introduced as an effective diagnostic to visualize the quality of the estimated probability densities. Benchmark tests show that estimates for the probability density function (PDF) converge to the true PDF as sample size increases on particularly difficult test probability densities that include cases with discontinuities, multi-resolution scales, heavy tails, and singularities. These results indicate the method has general applicability for high throughput statistical inference. PMID:29750803

  10. Comment on "constructing quantum games from nonfactorizable joint probabilities".

    PubMed

    Frąckiewicz, Piotr

    2013-09-01

    In the paper [Phys. Rev. E 76, 061122 (2007)], the authors presented a way of playing 2 × 2 games so that players were able to exploit nonfactorizable joint probabilities respecting the nonsignaling principle (i.e., relativistic causality). We are going to prove, however, that the scheme does not generalize the games studied in the commented paper. Moreover, it allows the players to obtain nonclassical results even if the factorizable joint probabilities are used.

  11. The effects of the one-step replica symmetry breaking on the Sherrington-Kirkpatrick spin glass model in the presence of random field with a joint Gaussian probability density function for the exchange interactions and random fields

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hadjiagapiou, Ioannis A.; Velonakis, Ioannis N.

    2018-07-01

    The Sherrington-Kirkpatrick Ising spin glass model, in the presence of a random magnetic field, is investigated within the framework of the one-step replica symmetry breaking. The two random variables (exchange integral interaction Jij and random magnetic field hi) are drawn from a joint Gaussian probability density function characterized by a correlation coefficient ρ, assuming positive and negative values. The thermodynamic properties, the three different phase diagrams and system's parameters are computed with respect to the natural parameters of the joint Gaussian probability density function at non-zero and zero temperatures. The low temperature negative entropy controversy, a result of the replica symmetry approach, has been partly remedied in the current study, leading to a less negative result. In addition, the present system possesses two successive spin glass phase transitions with characteristic temperatures.

  12. Application of multivariate Gaussian detection theory to known non-Gaussian probability density functions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schwartz, Craig R.; Thelen, Brian J.; Kenton, Arthur C.

    1995-06-01

    A statistical parametric multispectral sensor performance model was developed by ERIM to support mine field detection studies, multispectral sensor design/performance trade-off studies, and target detection algorithm development. The model assumes target detection algorithms and their performance models which are based on data assumed to obey multivariate Gaussian probability distribution functions (PDFs). The applicability of these algorithms and performance models can be generalized to data having non-Gaussian PDFs through the use of transforms which convert non-Gaussian data to Gaussian (or near-Gaussian) data. An example of one such transform is the Box-Cox power law transform. In practice, such a transform can be applied to non-Gaussian data prior to the introduction of a detection algorithm that is formally based on the assumption of multivariate Gaussian data. This paper presents an extension of these techniques to the case where the joint multivariate probability density function of the non-Gaussian input data is known, and where the joint estimate of the multivariate Gaussian statistics, under the Box-Cox transform, is desired. The jointly estimated multivariate Gaussian statistics can then be used to predict the performance of a target detection algorithm which has an associated Gaussian performance model.

  13. Impact of mechanical heterogeneity on joint density in a welded ignimbrite

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Soden, A. M.; Lunn, R. J.; Shipton, Z. K.

    2016-08-01

    Joints are conduits for groundwater, hydrocarbons and hydrothermal fluids. Robust fluid flow models rely on accurate characterisation of joint networks, in particular joint density. It is generally assumed that the predominant factor controlling joint density in layered stratigraphy is the thickness of the mechanical layer where the joints occur. Mechanical heterogeneity within the layer is considered a lesser influence on joint formation. We analysed the frequency and distribution of joints within a single 12-m thick ignimbrite layer to identify the controls on joint geometry and distribution. The observed joint distribution is not related to the thickness of the ignimbrite layer. Rather, joint initiation, propagation and termination are controlled by the shape, spatial distribution and mechanical properties of fiamme, which are present within the ignimbrite. The observations and analysis presented here demonstrate that models of joint distribution, particularly in thicker layers, that do not fully account for mechanical heterogeneity are likely to underestimate joint density, the spatial variability of joint distribution and the complex joint geometries that result. Consequently, we recommend that characterisation of a layer's compositional and material properties improves predictions of subsurface joint density in rock layers that are mechanically heterogeneous.

  14. Investigation of estimators of probability density functions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Speed, F. M.

    1972-01-01

    Four research projects are summarized which include: (1) the generation of random numbers on the IBM 360/44, (2) statistical tests used to check out random number generators, (3) Specht density estimators, and (4) use of estimators of probability density functions in analyzing large amounts of data.

  15. Probability density function evolution of power systems subject to stochastic variation of renewable energy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wei, J. Q.; Cong, Y. C.; Xiao, M. Q.

    2018-05-01

    As renewable energies are increasingly integrated into power systems, there is increasing interest in stochastic analysis of power systems.Better techniques should be developed to account for the uncertainty caused by penetration of renewables and consequently analyse its impacts on stochastic stability of power systems. In this paper, the Stochastic Differential Equations (SDEs) are used to represent the evolutionary behaviour of the power systems. The stationary Probability Density Function (PDF) solution to SDEs modelling power systems excited by Gaussian white noise is analysed. Subjected to such random excitation, the Joint Probability Density Function (JPDF) solution to the phase angle and angular velocity is governed by the generalized Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov (FPK) equation. To solve this equation, the numerical method is adopted. Special measure is taken such that the generalized FPK equation is satisfied in the average sense of integration with the assumed PDF. Both weak and strong intensities of the stochastic excitations are considered in a single machine infinite bus power system. The numerical analysis has the same result as the one given by the Monte Carlo simulation. Potential studies on stochastic behaviour of multi-machine power systems with random excitations are discussed at the end.

  16. Nonstationary envelope process and first excursion probability.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yang, J.-N.

    1972-01-01

    The definition of stationary random envelope proposed by Cramer and Leadbetter, is extended to the envelope of nonstationary random process possessing evolutionary power spectral densities. The density function, the joint density function, the moment function, and the crossing rate of a level of the nonstationary envelope process are derived. Based on the envelope statistics, approximate solutions to the first excursion probability of nonstationary random processes are obtained. In particular, applications of the first excursion probability to the earthquake engineering problems are demonstrated in detail.

  17. Joint Probability Analysis of Extreme Precipitation and Storm Tide in a Coastal City under Changing Environment

    PubMed Central

    Xu, Kui; Ma, Chao; Lian, Jijian; Bin, Lingling

    2014-01-01

    Catastrophic flooding resulting from extreme meteorological events has occurred more frequently and drawn great attention in recent years in China. In coastal areas, extreme precipitation and storm tide are both inducing factors of flooding and therefore their joint probability would be critical to determine the flooding risk. The impact of storm tide or changing environment on flooding is ignored or underestimated in the design of drainage systems of today in coastal areas in China. This paper investigates the joint probability of extreme precipitation and storm tide and its change using copula-based models in Fuzhou City. The change point at the year of 1984 detected by Mann-Kendall and Pettitt’s tests divides the extreme precipitation series into two subsequences. For each subsequence the probability of the joint behavior of extreme precipitation and storm tide is estimated by the optimal copula. Results show that the joint probability has increased by more than 300% on average after 1984 (α = 0.05). The design joint return period (RP) of extreme precipitation and storm tide is estimated to propose a design standard for future flooding preparedness. For a combination of extreme precipitation and storm tide, the design joint RP has become smaller than before. It implies that flooding would happen more often after 1984, which corresponds with the observation. The study would facilitate understanding the change of flood risk and proposing the adaption measures for coastal areas under a changing environment. PMID:25310006

  18. Joint probability analysis of extreme precipitation and storm tide in a coastal city under changing environment.

    PubMed

    Xu, Kui; Ma, Chao; Lian, Jijian; Bin, Lingling

    2014-01-01

    Catastrophic flooding resulting from extreme meteorological events has occurred more frequently and drawn great attention in recent years in China. In coastal areas, extreme precipitation and storm tide are both inducing factors of flooding and therefore their joint probability would be critical to determine the flooding risk. The impact of storm tide or changing environment on flooding is ignored or underestimated in the design of drainage systems of today in coastal areas in China. This paper investigates the joint probability of extreme precipitation and storm tide and its change using copula-based models in Fuzhou City. The change point at the year of 1984 detected by Mann-Kendall and Pettitt's tests divides the extreme precipitation series into two subsequences. For each subsequence the probability of the joint behavior of extreme precipitation and storm tide is estimated by the optimal copula. Results show that the joint probability has increased by more than 300% on average after 1984 (α = 0.05). The design joint return period (RP) of extreme precipitation and storm tide is estimated to propose a design standard for future flooding preparedness. For a combination of extreme precipitation and storm tide, the design joint RP has become smaller than before. It implies that flooding would happen more often after 1984, which corresponds with the observation. The study would facilitate understanding the change of flood risk and proposing the adaption measures for coastal areas under a changing environment.

  19. Robust location and spread measures for nonparametric probability density function estimation.

    PubMed

    López-Rubio, Ezequiel

    2009-10-01

    Robustness against outliers is a desirable property of any unsupervised learning scheme. In particular, probability density estimators benefit from incorporating this feature. A possible strategy to achieve this goal is to substitute the sample mean and the sample covariance matrix by more robust location and spread estimators. Here we use the L1-median to develop a nonparametric probability density function (PDF) estimator. We prove its most relevant properties, and we show its performance in density estimation and classification applications.

  20. Factors related to the joint probability of flooding on paired streams

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Koltun, G.F.; Sherwood, J.M.

    1998-01-01

    The factors related to the joint probabilty of flooding on paired streams were investigated and quantified to provide information to aid in the design of hydraulic structures where the joint probabilty of flooding is an element of the design criteria. Stream pairs were considered to have flooded jointly at the design-year flood threshold (corresponding to the 2-, 10-, 25-, or 50-year instantaneous peak streamflow) if peak streamflows at both streams in the pair were observed or predicted to have equaled or exceeded the threshold on a given calendar day. Daily mean streamflow data were used as a substitute for instantaneous peak streamflow data to determine which flood thresholds were equaled or exceeded on any given day. Instantaneous peak streamflow data, when available, were used preferentially to assess flood-threshold exceedance. Daily mean streamflow data for each stream were paired with concurrent daily mean streamflow data at the other streams. Observed probabilities of joint flooding, determined for the 2-, 10-, 25-, and 50-year flood thresholds, were computed as the ratios of the total number of days when streamflows at both streams concurrently equaled or exceeded their flood thresholds (events) to the total number of days where streamflows at either stream equaled or exceeded its flood threshold (trials). A combination of correlation analyses, graphical analyses, and logistic-regression analyses were used to identify and quantify factors associated with the observed probabilities of joint flooding (event-trial ratios). The analyses indicated that the distance between drainage area centroids, the ratio of the smaller to larger drainage area, the mean drainage area, and the centroid angle adjusted 30 degrees were the basin characteristics most closely associated with the joint probabilty of flooding on paired streams in Ohio. In general, the analyses indicated that the joint probabilty of flooding decreases with an increase in centroid distance and

  1. Investigations of turbulent scalar fields using probability density function approach

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gao, Feng

    1991-01-01

    Scalar fields undergoing random advection have attracted much attention from researchers in both the theoretical and practical sectors. Research interest spans from the study of the small scale structures of turbulent scalar fields to the modeling and simulations of turbulent reacting flows. The probability density function (PDF) method is an effective tool in the study of turbulent scalar fields, especially for those which involve chemical reactions. It has been argued that a one-point, joint PDF approach is the one to choose from among many simulation and closure methods for turbulent combustion and chemically reacting flows based on its practical feasibility in the foreseeable future for multiple reactants. Instead of the multi-point PDF, the joint PDF of a scalar and its gradient which represents the roles of both scalar and scalar diffusion is introduced. A proper closure model for the molecular diffusion term in the PDF equation is investigated. Another direction in this research is to study the mapping closure method that has been recently proposed to deal with the PDF's in turbulent fields. This method seems to have captured the physics correctly when applied to diffusion problems. However, if the turbulent stretching is included, the amplitude mapping has to be supplemented by either adjusting the parameters representing turbulent stretching at each time step or by introducing the coordinate mapping. This technique is still under development and seems to be quite promising. The final objective of this project is to understand some fundamental properties of the turbulent scalar fields and to develop practical numerical schemes that are capable of handling turbulent reacting flows.

  2. An empirical probability model of detecting species at low densities.

    PubMed

    Delaney, David G; Leung, Brian

    2010-06-01

    False negatives, not detecting things that are actually present, are an important but understudied problem. False negatives are the result of our inability to perfectly detect species, especially those at low density such as endangered species or newly arriving introduced species. They reduce our ability to interpret presence-absence survey data and make sound management decisions (e.g., rapid response). To reduce the probability of false negatives, we need to compare the efficacy and sensitivity of different sampling approaches and quantify an unbiased estimate of the probability of detection. We conducted field experiments in the intertidal zone of New England and New York to test the sensitivity of two sampling approaches (quadrat vs. total area search, TAS), given different target characteristics (mobile vs. sessile). Using logistic regression we built detection curves for each sampling approach that related the sampling intensity and the density of targets to the probability of detection. The TAS approach reduced the probability of false negatives and detected targets faster than the quadrat approach. Mobility of targets increased the time to detection but did not affect detection success. Finally, we interpreted two years of presence-absence data on the distribution of the Asian shore crab (Hemigrapsus sanguineus) in New England and New York, using our probability model for false negatives. The type of experimental approach in this paper can help to reduce false negatives and increase our ability to detect species at low densities by refining sampling approaches, which can guide conservation strategies and management decisions in various areas of ecology such as conservation biology and invasion ecology.

  3. Modulation Based on Probability Density Functions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Williams, Glenn L.

    2009-01-01

    A proposed method of modulating a sinusoidal carrier signal to convey digital information involves the use of histograms representing probability density functions (PDFs) that characterize samples of the signal waveform. The method is based partly on the observation that when a waveform is sampled (whether by analog or digital means) over a time interval at least as long as one half cycle of the waveform, the samples can be sorted by frequency of occurrence, thereby constructing a histogram representing a PDF of the waveform during that time interval.

  4. The return period analysis of natural disasters with statistical modeling of bivariate joint probability distribution.

    PubMed

    Li, Ning; Liu, Xueqin; Xie, Wei; Wu, Jidong; Zhang, Peng

    2013-01-01

    New features of natural disasters have been observed over the last several years. The factors that influence the disasters' formation mechanisms, regularity of occurrence and main characteristics have been revealed to be more complicated and diverse in nature than previously thought. As the uncertainty involved increases, the variables need to be examined further. This article discusses the importance and the shortage of multivariate analysis of natural disasters and presents a method to estimate the joint probability of the return periods and perform a risk analysis. Severe dust storms from 1990 to 2008 in Inner Mongolia were used as a case study to test this new methodology, as they are normal and recurring climatic phenomena on Earth. Based on the 79 investigated events and according to the dust storm definition with bivariate, the joint probability distribution of severe dust storms was established using the observed data of maximum wind speed and duration. The joint return periods of severe dust storms were calculated, and the relevant risk was analyzed according to the joint probability. The copula function is able to simulate severe dust storm disasters accurately. The joint return periods generated are closer to those observed in reality than the univariate return periods and thus have more value in severe dust storm disaster mitigation, strategy making, program design, and improvement of risk management. This research may prove useful in risk-based decision making. The exploration of multivariate analysis methods can also lay the foundation for further applications in natural disaster risk analysis. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  5. Multiple model cardinalized probability hypothesis density filter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Georgescu, Ramona; Willett, Peter

    2011-09-01

    The Probability Hypothesis Density (PHD) filter propagates the first-moment approximation to the multi-target Bayesian posterior distribution while the Cardinalized PHD (CPHD) filter propagates both the posterior likelihood of (an unlabeled) target state and the posterior probability mass function of the number of targets. Extensions of the PHD filter to the multiple model (MM) framework have been published and were implemented either with a Sequential Monte Carlo or a Gaussian Mixture approach. In this work, we introduce the multiple model version of the more elaborate CPHD filter. We present the derivation of the prediction and update steps of the MMCPHD particularized for the case of two target motion models and proceed to show that in the case of a single model, the new MMCPHD equations reduce to the original CPHD equations.

  6. Probability density function learning by unsupervised neurons.

    PubMed

    Fiori, S

    2001-10-01

    In a recent work, we introduced the concept of pseudo-polynomial adaptive activation function neuron (FAN) and presented an unsupervised information-theoretic learning theory for such structure. The learning model is based on entropy optimization and provides a way of learning probability distributions from incomplete data. The aim of the present paper is to illustrate some theoretical features of the FAN neuron, to extend its learning theory to asymmetrical density function approximation, and to provide an analytical and numerical comparison with other known density function estimation methods, with special emphasis to the universal approximation ability. The paper also provides a survey of PDF learning from incomplete data, as well as results of several experiments performed on real-world problems and signals.

  7. Probability Distribution Extraction from TEC Estimates based on Kernel Density Estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Demir, Uygar; Toker, Cenk; Çenet, Duygu

    2016-07-01

    Statistical analysis of the ionosphere, specifically the Total Electron Content (TEC), may reveal important information about its temporal and spatial characteristics. One of the core metrics that express the statistical properties of a stochastic process is its Probability Density Function (pdf). Furthermore, statistical parameters such as mean, variance and kurtosis, which can be derived from the pdf, may provide information about the spatial uniformity or clustering of the electron content. For example, the variance differentiates between a quiet ionosphere and a disturbed one, whereas kurtosis differentiates between a geomagnetic storm and an earthquake. Therefore, valuable information about the state of the ionosphere (and the natural phenomena that cause the disturbance) can be obtained by looking at the statistical parameters. In the literature, there are publications which try to fit the histogram of TEC estimates to some well-known pdf.s such as Gaussian, Exponential, etc. However, constraining a histogram to fit to a function with a fixed shape will increase estimation error, and all the information extracted from such pdf will continue to contain this error. In such techniques, it is highly likely to observe some artificial characteristics in the estimated pdf which is not present in the original data. In the present study, we use the Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) technique to estimate the pdf of the TEC. KDE is a non-parametric approach which does not impose a specific form on the TEC. As a result, better pdf estimates that almost perfectly fit to the observed TEC values can be obtained as compared to the techniques mentioned above. KDE is particularly good at representing the tail probabilities, and outliers. We also calculate the mean, variance and kurtosis of the measured TEC values. The technique is applied to the ionosphere over Turkey where the TEC values are estimated from the GNSS measurement from the TNPGN-Active (Turkish National Permanent

  8. Maximum likelihood estimation for predicting the probability of obtaining variable shortleaf pine regeneration densities

    Treesearch

    Thomas B. Lynch; Jean Nkouka; Michael M. Huebschmann; James M. Guldin

    2003-01-01

    A logistic equation is the basis for a model that predicts the probability of obtaining regeneration at specified densities. The density of regeneration (trees/ha) for which an estimate of probability is desired can be specified by means of independent variables in the model. When estimating parameters, the dependent variable is set to 1 if the regeneration density (...

  9. Probability density and exceedance rate functions of locally Gaussian turbulence

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mark, W. D.

    1989-01-01

    A locally Gaussian model of turbulence velocities is postulated which consists of the superposition of a slowly varying strictly Gaussian component representing slow temporal changes in the mean wind speed and a more rapidly varying locally Gaussian turbulence component possessing a temporally fluctuating local variance. Series expansions of the probability density and exceedance rate functions of the turbulence velocity model, based on Taylor's series, are derived. Comparisons of the resulting two-term approximations with measured probability density and exceedance rate functions of atmospheric turbulence velocity records show encouraging agreement, thereby confirming the consistency of the measured records with the locally Gaussian model. Explicit formulas are derived for computing all required expansion coefficients from measured turbulence records.

  10. Predicting critical transitions in dynamical systems from time series using nonstationary probability density modeling.

    PubMed

    Kwasniok, Frank

    2013-11-01

    A time series analysis method for predicting the probability density of a dynamical system is proposed. A nonstationary parametric model of the probability density is estimated from data within a maximum likelihood framework and then extrapolated to forecast the future probability density and explore the system for critical transitions or tipping points. A full systematic account of parameter uncertainty is taken. The technique is generic, independent of the underlying dynamics of the system. The method is verified on simulated data and then applied to prediction of Arctic sea-ice extent.

  11. The force distribution probability function for simple fluids by density functional theory.

    PubMed

    Rickayzen, G; Heyes, D M

    2013-02-28

    Classical density functional theory (DFT) is used to derive a formula for the probability density distribution function, P(F), and probability distribution function, W(F), for simple fluids, where F is the net force on a particle. The final formula for P(F) ∝ exp(-AF(2)), where A depends on the fluid density, the temperature, and the Fourier transform of the pair potential. The form of the DFT theory used is only applicable to bounded potential fluids. When combined with the hypernetted chain closure of the Ornstein-Zernike equation, the DFT theory for W(F) agrees with molecular dynamics computer simulations for the Gaussian and bounded soft sphere at high density. The Gaussian form for P(F) is still accurate at lower densities (but not too low density) for the two potentials, but with a smaller value for the constant, A, than that predicted by the DFT theory.

  12. Annular wave packets at Dirac points in graphene and their probability-density oscillation.

    PubMed

    Luo, Ji; Valencia, Daniel; Lu, Junqiang

    2011-12-14

    Wave packets in graphene whose central wave vector is at Dirac points are investigated by numerical calculations. Starting from an initial Gaussian function, these wave packets form into annular peaks that propagate to all directions like ripple-rings on water surface. At the beginning, electronic probability alternates between the central peak and the ripple-rings and transient oscillation occurs at the center. As time increases, the ripple-rings propagate at the fixed Fermi speed, and their widths remain unchanged. The axial symmetry of the energy dispersion leads to the circular symmetry of the wave packets. The fixed speed and widths, however, are attributed to the linearity of the energy dispersion. Interference between states that, respectively, belong to two branches of the energy dispersion leads to multiple ripple-rings and the probability-density oscillation. In a magnetic field, annular wave packets become confined and no longer propagate to infinity. If the initial Gaussian width differs greatly from the magnetic length, expanding and shrinking ripple-rings form and disappear alternatively in a limited spread, and the wave packet resumes the Gaussian form frequently. The probability thus oscillates persistently between the central peak and the ripple-rings. If the initial Gaussian width is close to the magnetic length, the wave packet retains the Gaussian form and its height and width oscillate with a period determined by the first Landau energy. The wave-packet evolution is determined jointly by the initial state and the magnetic field, through the electronic structure of graphene in a magnetic field. © 2011 American Institute of Physics

  13. Nonparametric probability density estimation by optimization theoretic techniques

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Scott, D. W.

    1976-01-01

    Two nonparametric probability density estimators are considered. The first is the kernel estimator. The problem of choosing the kernel scaling factor based solely on a random sample is addressed. An interactive mode is discussed and an algorithm proposed to choose the scaling factor automatically. The second nonparametric probability estimate uses penalty function techniques with the maximum likelihood criterion. A discrete maximum penalized likelihood estimator is proposed and is shown to be consistent in the mean square error. A numerical implementation technique for the discrete solution is discussed and examples displayed. An extensive simulation study compares the integrated mean square error of the discrete and kernel estimators. The robustness of the discrete estimator is demonstrated graphically.

  14. The effect of incremental changes in phonotactic probability and neighborhood density on word learning by preschool children

    PubMed Central

    Storkel, Holly L.; Bontempo, Daniel E.; Aschenbrenner, Andrew J.; Maekawa, Junko; Lee, Su-Yeon

    2013-01-01

    Purpose Phonotactic probability or neighborhood density have predominately been defined using gross distinctions (i.e., low vs. high). The current studies examined the influence of finer changes in probability (Experiment 1) and density (Experiment 2) on word learning. Method The full range of probability or density was examined by sampling five nonwords from each of four quartiles. Three- and 5-year-old children received training on nonword-nonobject pairs. Learning was measured in a picture-naming task immediately following training and 1-week after training. Results were analyzed using multi-level modeling. Results A linear spline model best captured nonlinearities in phonotactic probability. Specifically word learning improved as probability increased in the lowest quartile, worsened as probability increased in the midlow quartile, and then remained stable and poor in the two highest quartiles. An ordinary linear model sufficiently described neighborhood density. Here, word learning improved as density increased across all quartiles. Conclusion Given these different patterns, phonotactic probability and neighborhood density appear to influence different word learning processes. Specifically, phonotactic probability may affect recognition that a sound sequence is an acceptable word in the language and is a novel word for the child, whereas neighborhood density may influence creation of a new representation in long-term memory. PMID:23882005

  15. Idealized models of the joint probability distribution of wind speeds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Monahan, Adam H.

    2018-05-01

    The joint probability distribution of wind speeds at two separate locations in space or points in time completely characterizes the statistical dependence of these two quantities, providing more information than linear measures such as correlation. In this study, we consider two models of the joint distribution of wind speeds obtained from idealized models of the dependence structure of the horizontal wind velocity components. The bivariate Rice distribution follows from assuming that the wind components have Gaussian and isotropic fluctuations. The bivariate Weibull distribution arises from power law transformations of wind speeds corresponding to vector components with Gaussian, isotropic, mean-zero variability. Maximum likelihood estimates of these distributions are compared using wind speed data from the mid-troposphere, from different altitudes at the Cabauw tower in the Netherlands, and from scatterometer observations over the sea surface. While the bivariate Rice distribution is more flexible and can represent a broader class of dependence structures, the bivariate Weibull distribution is mathematically simpler and may be more convenient in many applications. The complexity of the mathematical expressions obtained for the joint distributions suggests that the development of explicit functional forms for multivariate speed distributions from distributions of the components will not be practical for more complicated dependence structure or more than two speed variables.

  16. Probability density function modeling of scalar mixing from concentrated sources in turbulent channel flow

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bakosi, J.; Franzese, P.; Boybeyi, Z.

    2007-11-01

    Dispersion of a passive scalar from concentrated sources in fully developed turbulent channel flow is studied with the probability density function (PDF) method. The joint PDF of velocity, turbulent frequency and scalar concentration is represented by a large number of Lagrangian particles. A stochastic near-wall PDF model combines the generalized Langevin model of Haworth and Pope [Phys. Fluids 29, 387 (1986)] with Durbin's [J. Fluid Mech. 249, 465 (1993)] method of elliptic relaxation to provide a mathematically exact treatment of convective and viscous transport with a nonlocal representation of the near-wall Reynolds stress anisotropy. The presence of walls is incorporated through the imposition of no-slip and impermeability conditions on particles without the use of damping or wall-functions. Information on the turbulent time scale is supplied by the gamma-distribution model of van Slooten et al. [Phys. Fluids 10, 246 (1998)]. Two different micromixing models are compared that incorporate the effect of small scale mixing on the transported scalar: the widely used interaction by exchange with the mean and the interaction by exchange with the conditional mean model. Single-point velocity and concentration statistics are compared to direct numerical simulation and experimental data at Reτ=1080 based on the friction velocity and the channel half width. The joint model accurately reproduces a wide variety of conditional and unconditional statistics in both physical and composition space.

  17. The Effects of Phonotactic Probability and Neighborhood Density on Adults' Word Learning in Noisy Conditions

    PubMed Central

    Storkel, Holly L.; Lee, Jaehoon; Cox, Casey

    2016-01-01

    Purpose Noisy conditions make auditory processing difficult. This study explores whether noisy conditions influence the effects of phonotactic probability (the likelihood of occurrence of a sound sequence) and neighborhood density (phonological similarity among words) on adults' word learning. Method Fifty-eight adults learned nonwords varying in phonotactic probability and neighborhood density in either an unfavorable (0-dB signal-to-noise ratio [SNR]) or a favorable (+8-dB SNR) listening condition. Word learning was assessed using a picture naming task by scoring the proportion of phonemes named correctly. Results The unfavorable 0-dB SNR condition showed a significant interaction between phonotactic probability and neighborhood density in the absence of main effects. In particular, adults learned more words when phonotactic probability and neighborhood density were both low or both high. The +8-dB SNR condition did not show this interaction. These results are inconsistent with those from a prior adult word learning study conducted under quiet listening conditions that showed main effects of word characteristics. Conclusions As the listening condition worsens, adult word learning benefits from a convergence of phonotactic probability and neighborhood density. Clinical implications are discussed for potential populations who experience difficulty with auditory perception or processing, making them more vulnerable to noise. PMID:27788276

  18. The Effects of Phonotactic Probability and Neighborhood Density on Adults' Word Learning in Noisy Conditions.

    PubMed

    Han, Min Kyung; Storkel, Holly L; Lee, Jaehoon; Cox, Casey

    2016-11-01

    Noisy conditions make auditory processing difficult. This study explores whether noisy conditions influence the effects of phonotactic probability (the likelihood of occurrence of a sound sequence) and neighborhood density (phonological similarity among words) on adults' word learning. Fifty-eight adults learned nonwords varying in phonotactic probability and neighborhood density in either an unfavorable (0-dB signal-to-noise ratio [SNR]) or a favorable (+8-dB SNR) listening condition. Word learning was assessed using a picture naming task by scoring the proportion of phonemes named correctly. The unfavorable 0-dB SNR condition showed a significant interaction between phonotactic probability and neighborhood density in the absence of main effects. In particular, adults learned more words when phonotactic probability and neighborhood density were both low or both high. The +8-dB SNR condition did not show this interaction. These results are inconsistent with those from a prior adult word learning study conducted under quiet listening conditions that showed main effects of word characteristics. As the listening condition worsens, adult word learning benefits from a convergence of phonotactic probability and neighborhood density. Clinical implications are discussed for potential populations who experience difficulty with auditory perception or processing, making them more vulnerable to noise.

  19. A Balanced Approach to Adaptive Probability Density Estimation.

    PubMed

    Kovacs, Julio A; Helmick, Cailee; Wriggers, Willy

    2017-01-01

    Our development of a Fast (Mutual) Information Matching (FIM) of molecular dynamics time series data led us to the general problem of how to accurately estimate the probability density function of a random variable, especially in cases of very uneven samples. Here, we propose a novel Balanced Adaptive Density Estimation (BADE) method that effectively optimizes the amount of smoothing at each point. To do this, BADE relies on an efficient nearest-neighbor search which results in good scaling for large data sizes. Our tests on simulated data show that BADE exhibits equal or better accuracy than existing methods, and visual tests on univariate and bivariate experimental data show that the results are also aesthetically pleasing. This is due in part to the use of a visual criterion for setting the smoothing level of the density estimate. Our results suggest that BADE offers an attractive new take on the fundamental density estimation problem in statistics. We have applied it on molecular dynamics simulations of membrane pore formation. We also expect BADE to be generally useful for low-dimensional applications in other statistical application domains such as bioinformatics, signal processing and econometrics.

  20. Moments of the Particle Phase-Space Density at Freeze-out and Coincidence Probabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bialas, A.; Czyż, W.; Zalewski, K.

    2005-10-01

    It is pointed out that the moments of phase-space particle density at freeze-out can be determined from the coincidence probabilities of the events observed in multiparticle production. A method to measure the coincidence probabilities is described and its validity examined.

  1. Effects of scale of movement, detection probability, and true population density on common methods of estimating population density

    DOE PAGES

    Keiter, David A.; Davis, Amy J.; Rhodes, Olin E.; ...

    2017-08-25

    Knowledge of population density is necessary for effective management and conservation of wildlife, yet rarely are estimators compared in their robustness to effects of ecological and observational processes, which can greatly influence accuracy and precision of density estimates. For this study, we simulate biological and observational processes using empirical data to assess effects of animal scale of movement, true population density, and probability of detection on common density estimators. We also apply common data collection and analytical techniques in the field and evaluate their ability to estimate density of a globally widespread species. We find that animal scale of movementmore » had the greatest impact on accuracy of estimators, although all estimators suffered reduced performance when detection probability was low, and we provide recommendations as to when each field and analytical technique is most appropriately employed. The large influence of scale of movement on estimator accuracy emphasizes the importance of effective post-hoc calculation of area sampled or use of methods that implicitly account for spatial variation. In particular, scale of movement impacted estimators substantially, such that area covered and spacing of detectors (e.g. cameras, traps, etc.) must reflect movement characteristics of the focal species to reduce bias in estimates of movement and thus density.« less

  2. Effects of scale of movement, detection probability, and true population density on common methods of estimating population density

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Keiter, David A.; Davis, Amy J.; Rhodes, Olin E.

    Knowledge of population density is necessary for effective management and conservation of wildlife, yet rarely are estimators compared in their robustness to effects of ecological and observational processes, which can greatly influence accuracy and precision of density estimates. For this study, we simulate biological and observational processes using empirical data to assess effects of animal scale of movement, true population density, and probability of detection on common density estimators. We also apply common data collection and analytical techniques in the field and evaluate their ability to estimate density of a globally widespread species. We find that animal scale of movementmore » had the greatest impact on accuracy of estimators, although all estimators suffered reduced performance when detection probability was low, and we provide recommendations as to when each field and analytical technique is most appropriately employed. The large influence of scale of movement on estimator accuracy emphasizes the importance of effective post-hoc calculation of area sampled or use of methods that implicitly account for spatial variation. In particular, scale of movement impacted estimators substantially, such that area covered and spacing of detectors (e.g. cameras, traps, etc.) must reflect movement characteristics of the focal species to reduce bias in estimates of movement and thus density.« less

  3. A Tomographic Method for the Reconstruction of Local Probability Density Functions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sivathanu, Y. R.; Gore, J. P.

    1993-01-01

    A method of obtaining the probability density function (PDF) of local properties from path integrated measurements is described. The approach uses a discrete probability function (DPF) method to infer the PDF of the local extinction coefficient from measurements of the PDFs of the path integrated transmittance. The local PDFs obtained using the method are compared with those obtained from direct intrusive measurements in propylene/air and ethylene/air diffusion flames. The results of this comparison are good.

  4. Unification of field theory and maximum entropy methods for learning probability densities.

    PubMed

    Kinney, Justin B

    2015-09-01

    The need to estimate smooth probability distributions (a.k.a. probability densities) from finite sampled data is ubiquitous in science. Many approaches to this problem have been described, but none is yet regarded as providing a definitive solution. Maximum entropy estimation and Bayesian field theory are two such approaches. Both have origins in statistical physics, but the relationship between them has remained unclear. Here I unify these two methods by showing that every maximum entropy density estimate can be recovered in the infinite smoothness limit of an appropriate Bayesian field theory. I also show that Bayesian field theory estimation can be performed without imposing any boundary conditions on candidate densities, and that the infinite smoothness limit of these theories recovers the most common types of maximum entropy estimates. Bayesian field theory thus provides a natural test of the maximum entropy null hypothesis and, furthermore, returns an alternative (lower entropy) density estimate when the maximum entropy hypothesis is falsified. The computations necessary for this approach can be performed rapidly for one-dimensional data, and software for doing this is provided.

  5. Unification of field theory and maximum entropy methods for learning probability densities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kinney, Justin B.

    2015-09-01

    The need to estimate smooth probability distributions (a.k.a. probability densities) from finite sampled data is ubiquitous in science. Many approaches to this problem have been described, but none is yet regarded as providing a definitive solution. Maximum entropy estimation and Bayesian field theory are two such approaches. Both have origins in statistical physics, but the relationship between them has remained unclear. Here I unify these two methods by showing that every maximum entropy density estimate can be recovered in the infinite smoothness limit of an appropriate Bayesian field theory. I also show that Bayesian field theory estimation can be performed without imposing any boundary conditions on candidate densities, and that the infinite smoothness limit of these theories recovers the most common types of maximum entropy estimates. Bayesian field theory thus provides a natural test of the maximum entropy null hypothesis and, furthermore, returns an alternative (lower entropy) density estimate when the maximum entropy hypothesis is falsified. The computations necessary for this approach can be performed rapidly for one-dimensional data, and software for doing this is provided.

  6. Joint coverage probability in a simulation study on Continuous-Time Markov Chain parameter estimation.

    PubMed

    Benoit, Julia S; Chan, Wenyaw; Doody, Rachelle S

    2015-01-01

    Parameter dependency within data sets in simulation studies is common, especially in models such as Continuous-Time Markov Chains (CTMC). Additionally, the literature lacks a comprehensive examination of estimation performance for the likelihood-based general multi-state CTMC. Among studies attempting to assess the estimation, none have accounted for dependency among parameter estimates. The purpose of this research is twofold: 1) to develop a multivariate approach for assessing accuracy and precision for simulation studies 2) to add to the literature a comprehensive examination of the estimation of a general 3-state CTMC model. Simulation studies are conducted to analyze longitudinal data with a trinomial outcome using a CTMC with and without covariates. Measures of performance including bias, component-wise coverage probabilities, and joint coverage probabilities are calculated. An application is presented using Alzheimer's disease caregiver stress levels. Comparisons of joint and component-wise parameter estimates yield conflicting inferential results in simulations from models with and without covariates. In conclusion, caution should be taken when conducting simulation studies aiming to assess performance and choice of inference should properly reflect the purpose of the simulation.

  7. Ensemble Averaged Probability Density Function (APDF) for Compressible Turbulent Reacting Flows

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shih, Tsan-Hsing; Liu, Nan-Suey

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we present a concept of the averaged probability density function (APDF) for studying compressible turbulent reacting flows. The APDF is defined as an ensemble average of the fine grained probability density function (FG-PDF) with a mass density weighting. It can be used to exactly deduce the mass density weighted, ensemble averaged turbulent mean variables. The transport equation for APDF can be derived in two ways. One is the traditional way that starts from the transport equation of FG-PDF, in which the compressible Navier- Stokes equations are embedded. The resulting transport equation of APDF is then in a traditional form that contains conditional means of all terms from the right hand side of the Navier-Stokes equations except for the chemical reaction term. These conditional means are new unknown quantities that need to be modeled. Another way of deriving the transport equation of APDF is to start directly from the ensemble averaged Navier-Stokes equations. The resulting transport equation of APDF derived from this approach appears in a closed form without any need for additional modeling. The methodology of ensemble averaging presented in this paper can be extended to other averaging procedures: for example, the Reynolds time averaging for statistically steady flow and the Reynolds spatial averaging for statistically homogeneous flow. It can also be extended to a time or spatial filtering procedure to construct the filtered density function (FDF) for the large eddy simulation (LES) of compressible turbulent reacting flows.

  8. A Cross-Sectional Comparison of the Effects of Phonotactic Probability and Neighborhood Density on Word Learning by Preschool Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hoover, Jill R.; Storkel, Holly L.; Hogan, Tiffany P.

    2010-01-01

    Two experiments examined the effects of phonotactic probability and neighborhood density on word learning by 3-, 4-, and 5-year-old children. Nonwords orthogonally varying in probability and density were taught with learning and retention measured via picture naming. Experiment 1 used a within story probability/across story density exposure…

  9. Density probability distribution functions of diffuse gas in the Milky Way

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berkhuijsen, E. M.; Fletcher, A.

    2008-10-01

    In a search for the signature of turbulence in the diffuse interstellar medium (ISM) in gas density distributions, we determined the probability distribution functions (PDFs) of the average volume densities of the diffuse gas. The densities were derived from dispersion measures and HI column densities towards pulsars and stars at known distances. The PDFs of the average densities of the diffuse ionized gas (DIG) and the diffuse atomic gas are close to lognormal, especially when lines of sight at |b| < 5° and |b| >= 5° are considered separately. The PDF of at high |b| is twice as wide as that at low |b|. The width of the PDF of the DIG is about 30 per cent smaller than that of the warm HI at the same latitudes. The results reported here provide strong support for the existence of a lognormal density PDF in the diffuse ISM, consistent with a turbulent origin of density structure in the diffuse gas.

  10. Statistical tests for whether a given set of independent, identically distributed draws comes from a specified probability density.

    PubMed

    Tygert, Mark

    2010-09-21

    We discuss several tests for determining whether a given set of independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) draws does not come from a specified probability density function. The most commonly used are Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests, particularly Kuiper's variant, which focus on discrepancies between the cumulative distribution function for the specified probability density and the empirical cumulative distribution function for the given set of i.i.d. draws. Unfortunately, variations in the probability density function often get smoothed over in the cumulative distribution function, making it difficult to detect discrepancies in regions where the probability density is small in comparison with its values in surrounding regions. We discuss tests without this deficiency, complementing the classical methods. The tests of the present paper are based on the plain fact that it is unlikely to draw a random number whose probability is small, provided that the draw is taken from the same distribution used in calculating the probability (thus, if we draw a random number whose probability is small, then we can be confident that we did not draw the number from the same distribution used in calculating the probability).

  11. Optimal Power Allocation Strategy in a Joint Bistatic Radar and Communication System Based on Low Probability of Intercept

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Fei; Salous, Sana; Zhou, Jianjiang

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we investigate a low probability of intercept (LPI)-based optimal power allocation strategy for a joint bistatic radar and communication system, which is composed of a dedicated transmitter, a radar receiver, and a communication receiver. The joint system is capable of fulfilling the requirements of both radar and communications simultaneously. First, assuming that the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) corresponding to the target surveillance path is much weaker than that corresponding to the line of sight path at radar receiver, the analytically closed-form expression for the probability of false alarm is calculated, whereas the closed-form expression for the probability of detection is not analytically tractable and is approximated due to the fact that the received signals are not zero-mean Gaussian under target presence hypothesis. Then, an LPI-based optimal power allocation strategy is presented to minimize the total transmission power for information signal and radar waveform, which is constrained by a specified information rate for the communication receiver and the desired probabilities of detection and false alarm for the radar receiver. The well-known bisection search method is employed to solve the resulting constrained optimization problem. Finally, numerical simulations are provided to reveal the effects of several system parameters on the power allocation results. It is also demonstrated that the LPI performance of the joint bistatic radar and communication system can be markedly improved by utilizing the proposed scheme. PMID:29186850

  12. Optimal Power Allocation Strategy in a Joint Bistatic Radar and Communication System Based on Low Probability of Intercept.

    PubMed

    Shi, Chenguang; Wang, Fei; Salous, Sana; Zhou, Jianjiang

    2017-11-25

    In this paper, we investigate a low probability of intercept (LPI)-based optimal power allocation strategy for a joint bistatic radar and communication system, which is composed of a dedicated transmitter, a radar receiver, and a communication receiver. The joint system is capable of fulfilling the requirements of both radar and communications simultaneously. First, assuming that the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) corresponding to the target surveillance path is much weaker than that corresponding to the line of sight path at radar receiver, the analytically closed-form expression for the probability of false alarm is calculated, whereas the closed-form expression for the probability of detection is not analytically tractable and is approximated due to the fact that the received signals are not zero-mean Gaussian under target presence hypothesis. Then, an LPI-based optimal power allocation strategy is presented to minimize the total transmission power for information signal and radar waveform, which is constrained by a specified information rate for the communication receiver and the desired probabilities of detection and false alarm for the radar receiver. The well-known bisection search method is employed to solve the resulting constrained optimization problem. Finally, numerical simulations are provided to reveal the effects of several system parameters on the power allocation results. It is also demonstrated that the LPI performance of the joint bistatic radar and communication system can be markedly improved by utilizing the proposed scheme.

  13. Statistics of cosmic density profiles from perturbation theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bernardeau, Francis; Pichon, Christophe; Codis, Sandrine

    2014-11-01

    The joint probability distribution function (PDF) of the density within multiple concentric spherical cells is considered. It is shown how its cumulant generating function can be obtained at tree order in perturbation theory as the Legendre transform of a function directly built in terms of the initial moments. In the context of the upcoming generation of large-scale structure surveys, it is conjectured that this result correctly models such a function for finite values of the variance. Detailed consequences of this assumption are explored. In particular the corresponding one-cell density probability distribution at finite variance is computed for realistic power spectra, taking into account its scale variation. It is found to be in agreement with Λ -cold dark matter simulations at the few percent level for a wide range of density values and parameters. Related explicit analytic expansions at the low and high density tails are given. The conditional (at fixed density) and marginal probability of the slope—the density difference between adjacent cells—and its fluctuations is also computed from the two-cell joint PDF; it also compares very well to simulations. It is emphasized that this could prove useful when studying the statistical properties of voids as it can serve as a statistical indicator to test gravity models and/or probe key cosmological parameters.

  14. Effects of laser power density on static and dynamic mechanical properties of dissimilar stainless steel welded joints

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wei, Yan-Peng; Li, Mao-Hui; Yu, Gang; Wu, Xian-Qian; Huang, Chen-Guang; Duan, Zhu-Ping

    2012-10-01

    The mechanical properties of laser welded joints under impact loadings such as explosion and car crash etc. are critical for the engineering designs. The hardness, static and dynamic mechanical properties of AISI304 and AISI316 L dissimilar stainless steel welded joints by CO2 laser were experimentally studied. The dynamic strain-stress curves at the strain rate around 103 s-1 were obtained by the split Hopkinson tensile bar (SHTB). The static mechanical properties of the welded joints have little changes with the laser power density and all fracture occurs at 316 L side. However, the strain rate sensitivity has a strong dependence on laser power density. The value of strain rate factor decreases with the increase of laser power density. The welded joint which may be applied for the impact loading can be obtained by reducing the laser power density in the case of welding quality assurance.

  15. Probability density function approach for compressible turbulent reacting flows

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hsu, A. T.; Tsai, Y.-L. P.; Raju, M. S.

    1994-01-01

    The objective of the present work is to extend the probability density function (PDF) tubulence model to compressible reacting flows. The proability density function of the species mass fractions and enthalpy are obtained by solving a PDF evolution equation using a Monte Carlo scheme. The PDF solution procedure is coupled with a compression finite-volume flow solver which provides the velocity and pressure fields. A modeled PDF equation for compressible flows, capable of treating flows with shock waves and suitable to the present coupling scheme, is proposed and tested. Convergence of the combined finite-volume Monte Carlo solution procedure is discussed. Two super sonic diffusion flames are studied using the proposed PDF model and the results are compared with experimental data; marked improvements over solutions without PDF are observed.

  16. High-resolution urban flood modelling - a joint probability approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hartnett, Michael; Olbert, Agnieszka; Nash, Stephen

    2017-04-01

    (Divoky et al., 2005). Nevertheless, such events occur and in Ireland alone there are several cases of serious damage due to flooding resulting from a combination of high sea water levels and river flows driven by the same meteorological conditions (e.g. Olbert et al. 2015). A November 2009 fluvial-coastal flooding of Cork City bringing €100m loss was one such incident. This event was used by Olbert et al. (2015) to determine processes controlling urban flooding and is further explored in this study to elaborate on coastal and fluvial flood mechanisms and their roles in controlling water levels. The objective of this research is to develop a methodology to assess combined effect of multiple source flooding on flood probability and severity in urban areas and to establish a set of conditions that dictate urban flooding due to extreme climatic events. These conditions broadly combine physical flood drivers (such as coastal and fluvial processes), their mechanisms and thresholds defining flood severity. The two main physical processes controlling urban flooding: high sea water levels (coastal flooding) and high river flows (fluvial flooding), and their threshold values for which flood is likely to occur, are considered in this study. Contribution of coastal and fluvial drivers to flooding and their impacts are assessed in a two-step process. The first step involves frequency analysis and extreme value statistical modelling of storm surges, tides and river flows and ultimately the application of joint probability method to estimate joint exceedence return periods for combination of surges, tide and river flows. In the second step, a numerical model of Cork Harbour MSN_Flood comprising a cascade of four nested high-resolution models is used to perform simulation of flood inundation under numerous hypothetical coastal and fluvial flood scenarios. The risk of flooding is quantified based on a range of physical aspects such as the extent and depth of inundation (Apel et al

  17. Wavefronts, actions and caustics determined by the probability density of an Airy beam

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Espíndola-Ramos, Ernesto; Silva-Ortigoza, Gilberto; Sosa-Sánchez, Citlalli Teresa; Julián-Macías, Israel; de Jesús Cabrera-Rosas, Omar; Ortega-Vidals, Paula; Alejandro Juárez-Reyes, Salvador; González-Juárez, Adriana; Silva-Ortigoza, Ramón

    2018-07-01

    The main contribution of the present work is to use the probability density of an Airy beam to identify its maxima with the family of caustics associated with the wavefronts determined by the level curves of a one-parameter family of solutions to the Hamilton–Jacobi equation with a given potential. To this end, we give a classical mechanics characterization of a solution of the one-dimensional Schrödinger equation in free space determined by a complete integral of the Hamilton–Jacobi and Laplace equations in free space. That is, with this type of solution, we associate a two-parameter family of wavefronts in the spacetime, which are the level curves of a one-parameter family of solutions to the Hamilton–Jacobi equation with a determined potential, and a one-parameter family of caustics. The general results are applied to an Airy beam to show that the maxima of its probability density provide a discrete set of: caustics, wavefronts and potentials. The results presented here are a natural generalization of those obtained by Berry and Balazs in 1979 for an Airy beam. Finally, we remark that, in a natural manner, each maxima of the probability density of an Airy beam determines a Hamiltonian system.

  18. Joint temporal density measurements for two-photon state characterization.

    PubMed

    Kuzucu, Onur; Wong, Franco N C; Kurimura, Sunao; Tovstonog, Sergey

    2008-10-10

    We demonstrate a technique for characterizing two-photon quantum states based on joint temporal correlation measurements using time-resolved single-photon detection by femtosecond up-conversion. We measure for the first time the joint temporal density of a two-photon entangled state, showing clearly the time anticorrelation of the coincident-frequency entangled photon pair generated by ultrafast spontaneous parametric down-conversion under extended phase-matching conditions. The new technique enables us to manipulate the frequency entanglement by varying the down-conversion pump bandwidth to produce a nearly unentangled two-photon state that is expected to yield a heralded single-photon state with a purity of 0.88. The time-domain correlation technique complements existing frequency-domain measurement methods for a more complete characterization of photonic entanglement.

  19. Spatial capture--recapture models for jointly estimating population density and landscape connectivity.

    PubMed

    Royle, J Andrew; Chandler, Richard B; Gazenski, Kimberly D; Graves, Tabitha A

    2013-02-01

    Population size and landscape connectivity are key determinants of population viability, yet no methods exist for simultaneously estimating density and connectivity parameters. Recently developed spatial capture--recapture (SCR) models provide a framework for estimating density of animal populations but thus far have not been used to study connectivity. Rather, all applications of SCR models have used encounter probability models based on the Euclidean distance between traps and animal activity centers, which implies that home ranges are stationary, symmetric, and unaffected by landscape structure. In this paper we devise encounter probability models based on "ecological distance," i.e., the least-cost path between traps and activity centers, which is a function of both Euclidean distance and animal movement behavior in resistant landscapes. We integrate least-cost path models into a likelihood-based estimation scheme for spatial capture-recapture models in order to estimate population density and parameters of the least-cost encounter probability model. Therefore, it is possible to make explicit inferences about animal density, distribution, and landscape connectivity as it relates to animal movement from standard capture-recapture data. Furthermore, a simulation study demonstrated that ignoring landscape connectivity can result in negatively biased density estimators under the naive SCR model.

  20. Spatial capture-recapture models for jointly estimating population density and landscape connectivity

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Royle, J. Andrew; Chandler, Richard B.; Gazenski, Kimberly D.; Graves, Tabitha A.

    2013-01-01

    Population size and landscape connectivity are key determinants of population viability, yet no methods exist for simultaneously estimating density and connectivity parameters. Recently developed spatial capture–recapture (SCR) models provide a framework for estimating density of animal populations but thus far have not been used to study connectivity. Rather, all applications of SCR models have used encounter probability models based on the Euclidean distance between traps and animal activity centers, which implies that home ranges are stationary, symmetric, and unaffected by landscape structure. In this paper we devise encounter probability models based on “ecological distance,” i.e., the least-cost path between traps and activity centers, which is a function of both Euclidean distance and animal movement behavior in resistant landscapes. We integrate least-cost path models into a likelihood-based estimation scheme for spatial capture–recapture models in order to estimate population density and parameters of the least-cost encounter probability model. Therefore, it is possible to make explicit inferences about animal density, distribution, and landscape connectivity as it relates to animal movement from standard capture–recapture data. Furthermore, a simulation study demonstrated that ignoring landscape connectivity can result in negatively biased density estimators under the naive SCR model.

  1. The Effect of Incremental Changes in Phonotactic Probability and Neighborhood Density on Word Learning by Preschool Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Storkel, Holly L.; Bontempo, Daniel E.; Aschenbrenner, Andrew J.; Maekawa, Junko; Lee, Su-Yeon

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: Phonotactic probability or neighborhood density has predominately been defined through the use of gross distinctions (i.e., low vs. high). In the current studies, the authors examined the influence of finer changes in probability (Experiment 1) and density (Experiment 2) on word learning. Method: The authors examined the full range of…

  2. Stochastic chaos induced by diffusion processes with identical spectral density but different probability density functions.

    PubMed

    Lei, Youming; Zheng, Fan

    2016-12-01

    Stochastic chaos induced by diffusion processes, with identical spectral density but different probability density functions (PDFs), is investigated in selected lightly damped Hamiltonian systems. The threshold amplitude of diffusion processes for the onset of chaos is derived by using the stochastic Melnikov method together with a mean-square criterion. Two quasi-Hamiltonian systems, namely, a damped single pendulum and damped Duffing oscillator perturbed by stochastic excitations, are used as illustrative examples. Four different cases of stochastic processes are taking as the driving excitations. It is shown that in such two systems the spectral density of diffusion processes completely determines the threshold amplitude for chaos, regardless of the shape of their PDFs, Gaussian or otherwise. Furthermore, the mean top Lyapunov exponent is employed to verify analytical results. The results obtained by numerical simulations are in accordance with the analytical results. This demonstrates that the stochastic Melnikov method is effective in predicting the onset of chaos in the quasi-Hamiltonian systems.

  3. Joint probability of statistical success of multiple phase III trials.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Jianliang; Zhang, Jenny J

    2013-01-01

    In drug development, after completion of phase II proof-of-concept trials, the sponsor needs to make a go/no-go decision to start expensive phase III trials. The probability of statistical success (PoSS) of the phase III trials based on data from earlier studies is an important factor in that decision-making process. Instead of statistical power, the predictive power of a phase III trial, which takes into account the uncertainty in the estimation of treatment effect from earlier studies, has been proposed to evaluate the PoSS of a single trial. However, regulatory authorities generally require statistical significance in two (or more) trials for marketing licensure. We show that the predictive statistics of two future trials are statistically correlated through use of the common observed data from earlier studies. Thus, the joint predictive power should not be evaluated as a simplistic product of the predictive powers of the individual trials. We develop the relevant formulae for the appropriate evaluation of the joint predictive power and provide numerical examples. Our methodology is further extended to the more complex phase III development scenario comprising more than two (K > 2) trials, that is, the evaluation of the PoSS of at least k₀ (k₀≤ K) trials from a program of K total trials. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  4. On the quantification and efficient propagation of imprecise probabilities resulting from small datasets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Jiaxin; Shields, Michael D.

    2018-01-01

    This paper addresses the problem of uncertainty quantification and propagation when data for characterizing probability distributions are scarce. We propose a methodology wherein the full uncertainty associated with probability model form and parameter estimation are retained and efficiently propagated. This is achieved by applying the information-theoretic multimodel inference method to identify plausible candidate probability densities and associated probabilities that each method is the best model in the Kullback-Leibler sense. The joint parameter densities for each plausible model are then estimated using Bayes' rule. We then propagate this full set of probability models by estimating an optimal importance sampling density that is representative of all plausible models, propagating this density, and reweighting the samples according to each of the candidate probability models. This is in contrast with conventional methods that try to identify a single probability model that encapsulates the full uncertainty caused by lack of data and consequently underestimate uncertainty. The result is a complete probabilistic description of both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty achieved with several orders of magnitude reduction in computational cost. It is shown how the model can be updated to adaptively accommodate added data and added candidate probability models. The method is applied for uncertainty analysis of plate buckling strength where it is demonstrated how dataset size affects the confidence (or lack thereof) we can place in statistical estimates of response when data are lacking.

  5. Dynamic Graphics in Excel for Teaching Statistics: Understanding the Probability Density Function

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Coll-Serrano, Vicente; Blasco-Blasco, Olga; Alvarez-Jareno, Jose A.

    2011-01-01

    In this article, we show a dynamic graphic in Excel that is used to introduce an important concept in our subject, Statistics I: the probability density function. This interactive graphic seeks to facilitate conceptual understanding of the main aspects analysed by the learners.

  6. Carrier Modulation Via Waveform Probability Density Function

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Williams, Glenn L.

    2006-01-01

    Beyond the classic modes of carrier modulation by varying amplitude (AM), phase (PM), or frequency (FM), we extend the modulation domain of an analog carrier signal to include a class of general modulations which are distinguished by their probability density function histogram. Separate waveform states are easily created by varying the pdf of the transmitted waveform. Individual waveform states are assignable as proxies for digital one's or zero's. At the receiver, these states are easily detected by accumulating sampled waveform statistics and performing periodic pattern matching, correlation, or statistical filtering. No fundamental physical laws are broken in the detection process. We show how a typical modulation scheme would work in the digital domain and suggest how to build an analog version. We propose that clever variations of the modulating waveform (and thus the histogram) can provide simple steganographic encoding.

  7. Carrier Modulation Via Waveform Probability Density Function

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Williams, Glenn L.

    2004-01-01

    Beyond the classic modes of carrier modulation by varying amplitude (AM), phase (PM), or frequency (FM), we extend the modulation domain of an analog carrier signal to include a class of general modulations which are distinguished by their probability density function histogram. Separate waveform states are easily created by varying the pdf of the transmitted waveform. Individual waveform states are assignable as proxies for digital ONEs or ZEROs. At the receiver, these states are easily detected by accumulating sampled waveform statistics and performing periodic pattern matching, correlation, or statistical filtering. No fundamental natural laws are broken in the detection process. We show how a typical modulation scheme would work in the digital domain and suggest how to build an analog version. We propose that clever variations of the modulating waveform (and thus the histogram) can provide simple steganographic encoding.

  8. Probability distributions for multimeric systems.

    PubMed

    Albert, Jaroslav; Rooman, Marianne

    2016-01-01

    We propose a fast and accurate method of obtaining the equilibrium mono-modal joint probability distributions for multimeric systems. The method necessitates only two assumptions: the copy number of all species of molecule may be treated as continuous; and, the probability density functions (pdf) are well-approximated by multivariate skew normal distributions (MSND). Starting from the master equation, we convert the problem into a set of equations for the statistical moments which are then expressed in terms of the parameters intrinsic to the MSND. Using an optimization package on Mathematica, we minimize a Euclidian distance function comprising of a sum of the squared difference between the left and the right hand sides of these equations. Comparison of results obtained via our method with those rendered by the Gillespie algorithm demonstrates our method to be highly accurate as well as efficient.

  9. Downlink Probability Density Functions for EOS-McMurdo Sound

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Christopher, P.; Jackson, A. H.

    1996-01-01

    The visibility times and communication link dynamics for the Earth Observations Satellite (EOS)-McMurdo Sound direct downlinks have been studied. The 16 day EOS periodicity may be shown with the Goddard Trajectory Determination System (GTDS) and the entire 16 day period should be simulated for representative link statistics. We desire many attributes of the downlink, however, and a faster orbital determination method is desirable. We use the method of osculating elements for speed and accuracy in simulating the EOS orbit. The accuracy of the method of osculating elements is demonstrated by closely reproducing the observed 16 day Landsat periodicity. An autocorrelation function method is used to show the correlation spike at 16 days. The entire 16 day record of passes over McMurdo Sound is then used to generate statistics for innage time, outage time, elevation angle, antenna angle rates, and propagation loss. The levation angle probability density function is compared with 1967 analytic approximation which has been used for medium to high altitude satellites. One practical result of this comparison is seen to be the rare occurrence of zenith passes. The new result is functionally different than the earlier result, with a heavy emphasis on low elevation angles. EOS is one of a large class of sun synchronous satellites which may be downlinked to McMurdo Sound. We examine delay statistics for an entire group of sun synchronous satellites ranging from 400 km to 1000 km altitude. Outage probability density function results are presented three dimensionally.

  10. JDFTx: Software for joint density-functional theory

    DOE PAGES

    Sundararaman, Ravishankar; Letchworth-Weaver, Kendra; Schwarz, Kathleen A.; ...

    2017-11-14

    Density-functional theory (DFT) has revolutionized computational prediction of atomic-scale properties from first principles in physics, chemistry and materials science. Continuing development of new methods is necessary for accurate predictions of new classes of materials and properties, and for connecting to nano- and mesoscale properties using coarse-grained theories. JDFTx is a fully-featured open-source electronic DFT software designed specifically to facilitate rapid development of new theories, models and algorithms. Using an algebraic formulation as an abstraction layer, compact C++11 code automatically performs well on diverse hardware including GPUs (Graphics Processing Units). This code hosts the development of joint density-functional theory (JDFT) thatmore » combines electronic DFT with classical DFT and continuum models of liquids for first-principles calculations of solvated and electrochemical systems. In addition, the modular nature of the code makes it easy to extend and interface with, facilitating the development of multi-scale toolkits that connect to ab initio calculations, e.g. photo-excited carrier dynamics combining electron and phonon calculations with electromagnetic simulations.« less

  11. JDFTx: Software for joint density-functional theory

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Sundararaman, Ravishankar; Letchworth-Weaver, Kendra; Schwarz, Kathleen A.

    Density-functional theory (DFT) has revolutionized computational prediction of atomic-scale properties from first principles in physics, chemistry and materials science. Continuing development of new methods is necessary for accurate predictions of new classes of materials and properties, and for connecting to nano- and mesoscale properties using coarse-grained theories. JDFTx is a fully-featured open-source electronic DFT software designed specifically to facilitate rapid development of new theories, models and algorithms. Using an algebraic formulation as an abstraction layer, compact C++11 code automatically performs well on diverse hardware including GPUs (Graphics Processing Units). This code hosts the development of joint density-functional theory (JDFT) thatmore » combines electronic DFT with classical DFT and continuum models of liquids for first-principles calculations of solvated and electrochemical systems. In addition, the modular nature of the code makes it easy to extend and interface with, facilitating the development of multi-scale toolkits that connect to ab initio calculations, e.g. photo-excited carrier dynamics combining electron and phonon calculations with electromagnetic simulations.« less

  12. Protein single-model quality assessment by feature-based probability density functions.

    PubMed

    Cao, Renzhi; Cheng, Jianlin

    2016-04-04

    Protein quality assessment (QA) has played an important role in protein structure prediction. We developed a novel single-model quality assessment method-Qprob. Qprob calculates the absolute error for each protein feature value against the true quality scores (i.e. GDT-TS scores) of protein structural models, and uses them to estimate its probability density distribution for quality assessment. Qprob has been blindly tested on the 11th Critical Assessment of Techniques for Protein Structure Prediction (CASP11) as MULTICOM-NOVEL server. The official CASP result shows that Qprob ranks as one of the top single-model QA methods. In addition, Qprob makes contributions to our protein tertiary structure predictor MULTICOM, which is officially ranked 3rd out of 143 predictors. The good performance shows that Qprob is good at assessing the quality of models of hard targets. These results demonstrate that this new probability density distribution based method is effective for protein single-model quality assessment and is useful for protein structure prediction. The webserver of Qprob is available at: http://calla.rnet.missouri.edu/qprob/. The software is now freely available in the web server of Qprob.

  13. Influence of Phonotactic Probability/Neighbourhood Density on Lexical Learning in Late Talkers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    MacRoy-Higgins, Michelle; Schwartz, Richard G.; Shafer, Valerie L.; Marton, Klara

    2013-01-01

    Background: Toddlers who are late talkers demonstrate delays in phonological and lexical skills. However, the influence of phonological factors on lexical acquisition in toddlers who are late talkers has not been examined directly. Aims: To examine the influence of phonotactic probability/neighbourhood density on word learning in toddlers who were…

  14. Multireference quantum chemistry through a joint density matrix renormalization group and canonical transformation theory.

    PubMed

    Yanai, Takeshi; Kurashige, Yuki; Neuscamman, Eric; Chan, Garnet Kin-Lic

    2010-01-14

    We describe the joint application of the density matrix renormalization group and canonical transformation theory to multireference quantum chemistry. The density matrix renormalization group provides the ability to describe static correlation in large active spaces, while the canonical transformation theory provides a high-order description of the dynamic correlation effects. We demonstrate the joint theory in two benchmark systems designed to test the dynamic and static correlation capabilities of the methods, namely, (i) total correlation energies in long polyenes and (ii) the isomerization curve of the [Cu(2)O(2)](2+) core. The largest complete active spaces and atomic orbital basis sets treated by the joint DMRG-CT theory in these systems correspond to a (24e,24o) active space and 268 atomic orbitals in the polyenes and a (28e,32o) active space and 278 atomic orbitals in [Cu(2)O(2)](2+).

  15. Measurements of small-scale statistics and probability density functions in passively heated shear flow

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ferchichi, Mohsen

    This study is an experimental investigation consisting of two parts. In the first part, the fine structure of uniformly sheared turbulence was investigated within the framework of Kolmogorov's (1941) similarity hypotheses. The second part, consisted of the study of the scalar mixing in uniformly sheared turbulence with an imposed mean scalar gradient, with the emphasis on measurements relevant to the probability density function formulation and on scalar derivative statistics. The velocity fine structure was invoked from statistics of the streamwise and transverse derivatives of the streamwise velocity as well as velocity differences and structure functions, measured with hot wire anemometry for turbulence Reynolds numbers, Relambda, in the range between 140 and 660. The streamwise derivative skewness and flatness agreed with previously reported results in that they increased with increasing Relambda with the flatness increasing at a higher rate. The skewness of the transverse derivative decreased with increasing Relambda, and the flatness of this derivative increased with Relambda but a lower rate than the streamwise derivative flatness. The high order (up to sixth) transverse structure functions of the streamwise velocity showed the same trends as the corresponding streamwise structure functions. In the second pan of tins experimental study, an army of heated ribbons was introduced into the flow to produce a constant mean temperature gradient, such that the temperature acted as a passive scalar. The Re lambda in this study varied from 184 to 253. Cold wire thermometry and hot wire anemometry were used for simultaneous measurements of temperature and velocity. The scalar pdf was found to be nearly Gaussian. Various tests of joint statistics of the scalar and its rate of destruction revealed that the scalar dissipation rate was essentially independent of the scalar value. The measured joint statistics of the scalar and the velocity suggested that they were nearly

  16. Identification of Stochastically Perturbed Autonomous Systems from Temporal Sequences of Probability Density Functions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nie, Xiaokai; Luo, Jingjing; Coca, Daniel; Birkin, Mark; Chen, Jing

    2018-03-01

    The paper introduces a method for reconstructing one-dimensional iterated maps that are driven by an external control input and subjected to an additive stochastic perturbation, from sequences of probability density functions that are generated by the stochastic dynamical systems and observed experimentally.

  17. Derivation of an eigenvalue probability density function relating to the Poincaré disk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Forrester, Peter J.; Krishnapur, Manjunath

    2009-09-01

    A result of Zyczkowski and Sommers (2000 J. Phys. A: Math. Gen. 33 2045-57) gives the eigenvalue probability density function for the top N × N sub-block of a Haar distributed matrix from U(N + n). In the case n >= N, we rederive this result, starting from knowledge of the distribution of the sub-blocks, introducing the Schur decomposition and integrating over all variables except the eigenvalues. The integration is done by identifying a recursive structure which reduces the dimension. This approach is inspired by an analogous approach which has been recently applied to determine the eigenvalue probability density function for random matrices A-1B, where A and B are random matrices with entries standard complex normals. We relate the eigenvalue distribution of the sub-blocks to a many-body quantum state, and to the one-component plasma, on the pseudosphere.

  18. Joint density-functional theory and its application to systems in solution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petrosyan, Sahak A.

    The physics of solvation, the interaction of water with solutes, plays a central role in chemistry and biochemistry, and it is essential for the very existence of life. Despite the central importance of water and the advent of the quantum theory early in the twentieth century, the link between the fundamental laws of physics and the observable properties of water remain poorly understood to this day. The central goal of this thesis is to develop a new formalism and framework to make the study of systems (solutes or surfaces) in contact with liquid water as practical and accurate as standard electronic structure calculations without the need for explicit averaging over large ensembles of configurations of water molecules. The thesis introduces a new form of density functional theory for the ab initio description of electronic systems in contact with a molecular liquid environment. This theory rigorously joins an electron density-functional for the electrons of a solute with a classical density-functional theory for the liquid into a single variational principle for the free energy of the combined system. Using the new form of density-functional theory for the ab initio description of electronic systems in contact with a molecular liquid environment, the thesis then presents the first detailed study of the impact of a solvent on the surface chemistry of Cr2O3, the passivating layer of stainless steel alloys. In comparison to a vacuum, we predict that the presence of water has little impact on the adsorption of chloride ions to the oxygen-terminated surface but has a dramatic effect on the binding of hydrogen to that surface. A key ingredient of a successful joint density functional theory is a good approximate functional for describing the solvent. We explore how the simplest examples of the best known class of approximate forms for the classical density functional fail when applied directly to water. The thesis then presents a computationally efficient density

  19. The precise time course of lexical activation: MEG measurements of the effects of frequency, probability, and density in lexical decision.

    PubMed

    Stockall, Linnaea; Stringfellow, Andrew; Marantz, Alec

    2004-01-01

    Visually presented letter strings consistently yield three MEG response components: the M170, associated with letter-string processing (Tarkiainen, Helenius, Hansen, Cornelissen, & Salmelin, 1999); the M250, affected by phonotactic probability, (Pylkkänen, Stringfellow, & Marantz, 2002); and the M350, responsive to lexical frequency (Embick, Hackl, Schaeffer, Kelepir, & Marantz, 2001). Pylkkänen et al. found evidence that the M350 reflects lexical activation prior to competition among phonologically similar words. We investigate the effects of lexical and sublexical frequency and neighborhood density on the M250 and M350 through orthogonal manipulation of phonotactic probability, density, and frequency. The results confirm that probability but not density affects the latency of the M250 and M350; however, an interaction between probability and density on M350 latencies suggests an earlier influence of neighborhoods than previously reported.

  20. Density Imaging of Puy de Dôme Volcano by Joint Inversion of Muographic and Gravimetric Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barnoud, A.; Niess, V.; Le Ménédeu, E.; Cayol, V.; Carloganu, C.

    2016-12-01

    We aim at jointly inverting high density muographic and gravimetric data to robustly infer the density structure of volcanoes. We use the puy de Dôme volcano in France as a proof of principle since high quality data sets are available for both muography and gravimetry. Gravimetric inversion and muography are independent methods that provide an estimation of density distributions. On the one hand, gravimetry allows to reconstruct 3D density variations by inversion. This process is well known to be ill-posed and intrinsically non unique, thus it requires additional constraints (eg. a priori density model). On the other hand, muography provides a direct measurement of 2D mean densities (radiographic images) from the detection of high energy atmospheric muons crossing the volcanic edifice. 3D density distributions can be computed from several radiographic images, but the number of images is generally limited by field constraints and by the limited number of available telescopes. Thus, muon tomography is also ill-posed in practice.In the case of the puy de Dôme volcano, the density structures inferred from gravimetric data (Portal et al. 2016) and from muographic data (Le Ménédeu et al. 2016) show a qualitative agreement but cannot be compared quantitatively. Because each method has different intrinsic resolutions due to the physics (Jourde et al., 2015), the joint inversion is expected to improve the robustness of the inversion. Such joint inversion has already been applied in a volcanic context (Nishiyama et al., 2013).Volcano muography requires state-of-art, high-resolution and large-scale muon detectors (Ambrosino et al., 2015). Instrumental uncertainties and systematic errors may constitute an important limitation for muography and should not be overlooked. For instance, low-energy muons are detected together with ballistic high-energy muons, decreasing the measured value of the mean density closed to the topography.Here, we jointly invert the gravimetric and

  1. Joint search and sensor management for geosynchronous satellites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zatezalo, A.; El-Fallah, A.; Mahler, R.; Mehra, R. K.; Pham, K.

    2008-04-01

    Joint search and sensor management for space situational awareness presents daunting scientific and practical challenges as it requires a simultaneous search for new, and the catalog update of the current space objects. We demonstrate a new approach to joint search and sensor management by utilizing the Posterior Expected Number of Targets (PENT) as the objective function, an observation model for a space-based EO/IR sensor, and a Probability Hypothesis Density Particle Filter (PHD-PF) tracker. Simulation and results using actual Geosynchronous Satellites are presented.

  2. Experimental investigation of the intensity fluctuation joint probability and conditional distributions of the twin-beam quantum state.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Yun; Kasai, Katsuyuki; Watanabe, Masayoshi

    2003-01-13

    We give the intensity fluctuation joint probability of the twin-beam quantum state, which was generated with an optical parametric oscillator operating above threshold. Then we present what to our knowledge is the first measurement of the intensity fluctuation conditional probability distributions of twin beams. The measured inference variance of twin beams 0.62+/-0.02, which is less than the standard quantum limit of unity, indicates inference with a precision better than that of separable states. The measured photocurrent variance exhibits a quantum correlation of as much as -4.9+/-0.2 dB between the signal and the idler.

  3. The Influence of Phonotactic Probability and Neighborhood Density on Children's Production of Newly Learned Words

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Heisler, Lori; Goffman, Lisa

    2016-01-01

    A word learning paradigm was used to teach children novel words that varied in phonotactic probability and neighborhood density. The effects of frequency and density on speech production were examined when phonetic forms were nonreferential (i.e., when no referent was attached) and when phonetic forms were referential (i.e., when a referent was…

  4. A Bayesian joint probability modeling approach for seasonal forecasting of streamflows at multiple sites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Q. J.; Robertson, D. E.; Chiew, F. H. S.

    2009-05-01

    Seasonal forecasting of streamflows can be highly valuable for water resources management. In this paper, a Bayesian joint probability (BJP) modeling approach for seasonal forecasting of streamflows at multiple sites is presented. A Box-Cox transformed multivariate normal distribution is proposed to model the joint distribution of future streamflows and their predictors such as antecedent streamflows and El Niño-Southern Oscillation indices and other climate indicators. Bayesian inference of model parameters and uncertainties is implemented using Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling, leading to joint probabilistic forecasts of streamflows at multiple sites. The model provides a parametric structure for quantifying relationships between variables, including intersite correlations. The Box-Cox transformed multivariate normal distribution has considerable flexibility for modeling a wide range of predictors and predictands. The Bayesian inference formulated allows the use of data that contain nonconcurrent and missing records. The model flexibility and data-handling ability means that the BJP modeling approach is potentially of wide practical application. The paper also presents a number of statistical measures and graphical methods for verification of probabilistic forecasts of continuous variables. Results for streamflows at three river gauges in the Murrumbidgee River catchment in southeast Australia show that the BJP modeling approach has good forecast quality and that the fitted model is consistent with observed data.

  5. Double density dynamics: realizing a joint distribution of a physical system and a parameter system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fukuda, Ikuo; Moritsugu, Kei

    2015-11-01

    To perform a variety of types of molecular dynamics simulations, we created a deterministic method termed ‘double density dynamics’ (DDD), which realizes an arbitrary distribution for both physical variables and their associated parameters simultaneously. Specifically, we constructed an ordinary differential equation that has an invariant density relating to a joint distribution of the physical system and the parameter system. A generalized density function leads to a physical system that develops under nonequilibrium environment-describing superstatistics. The joint distribution density of the physical system and the parameter system appears as the Radon-Nikodym derivative of a distribution that is created by a scaled long-time average, generated from the flow of the differential equation under an ergodic assumption. The general mathematical framework is fully discussed to address the theoretical possibility of our method, and a numerical example representing a 1D harmonic oscillator is provided to validate the method being applied to the temperature parameters.

  6. Momentum Probabilities for a Single Quantum Particle in Three-Dimensional Regular "Infinite" Wells: One Way of Promoting Understanding of Probability Densities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Riggs, Peter J.

    2013-01-01

    Students often wrestle unsuccessfully with the task of correctly calculating momentum probability densities and have difficulty in understanding their interpretation. In the case of a particle in an "infinite" potential well, its momentum can take values that are not just those corresponding to the particle's quantised energies but…

  7. The Influence of Part-Word Phonotactic Probability/Neighborhood Density on Word Learning by Preschool Children Varying in Expressive Vocabulary

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Storkel, Holly L.; Hoover, Jill R.

    2011-01-01

    The goal of this study was to examine the influence of part-word phonotactic probability/neighborhood density on word learning by preschool children with normal vocabularies that varied in size. Ninety-eight children (age 2 ; 11-6 ; 0) were taught consonant-vowel-consonant (CVC) nonwords orthogonally varying in the probability/density of the CV…

  8. Color object detection using spatial-color joint probability functions.

    PubMed

    Luo, Jiebo; Crandall, David

    2006-06-01

    Object detection in unconstrained images is an important image understanding problem with many potential applications. There has been little success in creating a single algorithm that can detect arbitrary objects in unconstrained images; instead, algorithms typically must be customized for each specific object. Consequently, it typically requires a large number of exemplars (for rigid objects) or a large amount of human intuition (for nonrigid objects) to develop a robust algorithm. We present a robust algorithm designed to detect a class of compound color objects given a single model image. A compound color object is defined as having a set of multiple, particular colors arranged spatially in a particular way, including flags, logos, cartoon characters, people in uniforms, etc. Our approach is based on a particular type of spatial-color joint probability function called the color edge co-occurrence histogram. In addition, our algorithm employs perceptual color naming to handle color variation, and prescreening to limit the search scope (i.e., size and location) for the object. Experimental results demonstrated that the proposed algorithm is insensitive to object rotation, scaling, partial occlusion, and folding, outperforming a closely related algorithm based on color co-occurrence histograms by a decisive margin.

  9. Structural Reliability Using Probability Density Estimation Methods Within NESSUS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chamis, Chrisos C. (Technical Monitor); Godines, Cody Ric

    2003-01-01

    A reliability analysis studies a mathematical model of a physical system taking into account uncertainties of design variables and common results are estimations of a response density, which also implies estimations of its parameters. Some common density parameters include the mean value, the standard deviation, and specific percentile(s) of the response, which are measures of central tendency, variation, and probability regions, respectively. Reliability analyses are important since the results can lead to different designs by calculating the probability of observing safe responses in each of the proposed designs. All of this is done at the expense of added computational time as compared to a single deterministic analysis which will result in one value of the response out of many that make up the density of the response. Sampling methods, such as monte carlo (MC) and latin hypercube sampling (LHS), can be used to perform reliability analyses and can compute nonlinear response density parameters even if the response is dependent on many random variables. Hence, both methods are very robust; however, they are computationally expensive to use in the estimation of the response density parameters. Both methods are 2 of 13 stochastic methods that are contained within the Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress (NESSUS) program. NESSUS is a probabilistic finite element analysis (FEA) program that was developed through funding from NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC). It has the additional capability of being linked to other analysis programs; therefore, probabilistic fluid dynamics, fracture mechanics, and heat transfer are only a few of what is possible with this software. The LHS method is the newest addition to the stochastic methods within NESSUS. Part of this work was to enhance NESSUS with the LHS method. The new LHS module is complete, has been successfully integrated with NESSUS, and been used to study four different test cases that have been

  10. Probability density of tunneled carrier states near heterojunctions calculated numerically by the scattering method.

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Wampler, William R.; Myers, Samuel M.; Modine, Normand A.

    2017-09-01

    The energy-dependent probability density of tunneled carrier states for arbitrarily specified longitudinal potential-energy profiles in planar bipolar devices is numerically computed using the scattering method. Results agree accurately with a previous treatment based on solution of the localized eigenvalue problem, where computation times are much greater. These developments enable quantitative treatment of tunneling-assisted recombination in irradiated heterojunction bipolar transistors, where band offsets may enhance the tunneling effect by orders of magnitude. The calculations also reveal the density of non-tunneled carrier states in spatially varying potentials, and thereby test the common approximation of uniform- bulk values for such densities.

  11. Properties of the probability density function of the non-central chi-squared distribution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    András, Szilárd; Baricz, Árpád

    2008-10-01

    In this paper we consider the probability density function (pdf) of a non-central [chi]2 distribution with arbitrary number of degrees of freedom. For this function we prove that can be represented as a finite sum and we deduce a partial derivative formula. Moreover, we show that the pdf is log-concave when the degrees of freedom is greater or equal than 2. At the end of this paper we present some Turán-type inequalities for this function and an elegant application of the monotone form of l'Hospital's rule in probability theory is given.

  12. Online Reinforcement Learning Using a Probability Density Estimation.

    PubMed

    Agostini, Alejandro; Celaya, Enric

    2017-01-01

    Function approximation in online, incremental, reinforcement learning needs to deal with two fundamental problems: biased sampling and nonstationarity. In this kind of task, biased sampling occurs because samples are obtained from specific trajectories dictated by the dynamics of the environment and are usually concentrated in particular convergence regions, which in the long term tend to dominate the approximation in the less sampled regions. The nonstationarity comes from the recursive nature of the estimations typical of temporal difference methods. This nonstationarity has a local profile, varying not only along the learning process but also along different regions of the state space. We propose to deal with these problems using an estimation of the probability density of samples represented with a gaussian mixture model. To deal with the nonstationarity problem, we use the common approach of introducing a forgetting factor in the updating formula. However, instead of using the same forgetting factor for the whole domain, we make it dependent on the local density of samples, which we use to estimate the nonstationarity of the function at any given input point. To address the biased sampling problem, the forgetting factor applied to each mixture component is modulated according to the new information provided in the updating, rather than forgetting depending only on time, thus avoiding undesired distortions of the approximation in less sampled regions.

  13. Coincidence probability as a measure of the average phase-space density at freeze-out

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bialas, A.; Czyz, W.; Zalewski, K.

    2006-02-01

    It is pointed out that the average semi-inclusive particle phase-space density at freeze-out can be determined from the coincidence probability of the events observed in multiparticle production. The method of measurement is described and its accuracy examined.

  14. Continuation of probability density functions using a generalized Lyapunov approach

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Baars, S., E-mail: s.baars@rug.nl; Viebahn, J.P., E-mail: viebahn@cwi.nl; Mulder, T.E., E-mail: t.e.mulder@uu.nl

    Techniques from numerical bifurcation theory are very useful to study transitions between steady fluid flow patterns and the instabilities involved. Here, we provide computational methodology to use parameter continuation in determining probability density functions of systems of stochastic partial differential equations near fixed points, under a small noise approximation. Key innovation is the efficient solution of a generalized Lyapunov equation using an iterative method involving low-rank approximations. We apply and illustrate the capabilities of the method using a problem in physical oceanography, i.e. the occurrence of multiple steady states of the Atlantic Ocean circulation.

  15. Technology-enhanced Interactive Teaching of Marginal, Joint and Conditional Probabilities: The Special Case of Bivariate Normal Distribution

    PubMed Central

    Dinov, Ivo D.; Kamino, Scott; Bhakhrani, Bilal; Christou, Nicolas

    2014-01-01

    Summary Data analysis requires subtle probability reasoning to answer questions like What is the chance of event A occurring, given that event B was observed? This generic question arises in discussions of many intriguing scientific questions such as What is the probability that an adolescent weighs between 120 and 140 pounds given that they are of average height? and What is the probability of (monetary) inflation exceeding 4% and housing price index below 110? To address such problems, learning some applied, theoretical or cross-disciplinary probability concepts is necessary. Teaching such courses can be improved by utilizing modern information technology resources. Students’ understanding of multivariate distributions, conditional probabilities, correlation and causation can be significantly strengthened by employing interactive web-based science educational resources. Independent of the type of a probability course (e.g. majors, minors or service probability course, rigorous measure-theoretic, applied or statistics course) student motivation, learning experiences and knowledge retention may be enhanced by blending modern technological tools within the classical conceptual pedagogical models. We have designed, implemented and disseminated a portable open-source web-application for teaching multivariate distributions, marginal, joint and conditional probabilities using the special case of bivariate Normal distribution. A real adolescent height and weight dataset is used to demonstrate the classroom utilization of the new web-application to address problems of parameter estimation, univariate and multivariate inference. PMID:25419016

  16. Technology-enhanced Interactive Teaching of Marginal, Joint and Conditional Probabilities: The Special Case of Bivariate Normal Distribution.

    PubMed

    Dinov, Ivo D; Kamino, Scott; Bhakhrani, Bilal; Christou, Nicolas

    2013-01-01

    Data analysis requires subtle probability reasoning to answer questions like What is the chance of event A occurring, given that event B was observed? This generic question arises in discussions of many intriguing scientific questions such as What is the probability that an adolescent weighs between 120 and 140 pounds given that they are of average height? and What is the probability of (monetary) inflation exceeding 4% and housing price index below 110? To address such problems, learning some applied, theoretical or cross-disciplinary probability concepts is necessary. Teaching such courses can be improved by utilizing modern information technology resources. Students' understanding of multivariate distributions, conditional probabilities, correlation and causation can be significantly strengthened by employing interactive web-based science educational resources. Independent of the type of a probability course (e.g. majors, minors or service probability course, rigorous measure-theoretic, applied or statistics course) student motivation, learning experiences and knowledge retention may be enhanced by blending modern technological tools within the classical conceptual pedagogical models. We have designed, implemented and disseminated a portable open-source web-application for teaching multivariate distributions, marginal, joint and conditional probabilities using the special case of bivariate Normal distribution. A real adolescent height and weight dataset is used to demonstrate the classroom utilization of the new web-application to address problems of parameter estimation, univariate and multivariate inference.

  17. The Havriliak-Negami relaxation and its relatives: the response, relaxation and probability density functions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Górska, K.; Horzela, A.; Bratek, Ł.; Dattoli, G.; Penson, K. A.

    2018-04-01

    We study functions related to the experimentally observed Havriliak-Negami dielectric relaxation pattern proportional in the frequency domain to [1+(iωτ0){\\hspace{0pt}}α]-β with τ0 > 0 being some characteristic time. For α = l/k< 1 (l and k being positive and relatively prime integers) and β > 0 we furnish exact and explicit expressions for response and relaxation functions in the time domain and suitable probability densities in their domain dual in the sense of the inverse Laplace transform. All these functions are expressed as finite sums of generalized hypergeometric functions, convenient to handle analytically and numerically. Introducing a reparameterization β = (2-q)/(q-1) and τ0 = (q-1){\\hspace{0pt}}1/α (1 < q < 2) we show that for 0 < α < 1 the response functions fα, β(t/τ0) go to the one-sided Lévy stable distributions when q tends to one. Moreover, applying the self-similarity property of the probability densities gα, β(u) , we introduce two-variable densities and show that they satisfy the integral form of the evolution equation.

  18. Probability density functions for CP-violating rephasing invariants

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fortin, Jean-François; Giasson, Nicolas; Marleau, Luc

    2018-05-01

    The implications of the anarchy principle on CP violation in the lepton sector are investigated. A systematic method is introduced to compute the probability density functions for the CP-violating rephasing invariants of the PMNS matrix from the Haar measure relevant to the anarchy principle. Contrary to the CKM matrix which is hierarchical, it is shown that the Haar measure, and hence the anarchy principle, are very likely to lead to the observed PMNS matrix. Predictions on the CP-violating Dirac rephasing invariant |jD | and Majorana rephasing invariant |j1 | are also obtained. They correspond to 〈 |jD | 〉 Haar = π / 105 ≈ 0.030 and 〈 |j1 | 〉 Haar = 1 / (6 π) ≈ 0.053 respectively, in agreement with the experimental hint from T2K of | jDexp | ≈ 0.032 ± 0.005 (or ≈ 0.033 ± 0.003) for the normal (or inverted) hierarchy.

  19. An empirical probability density distribution of planetary ionosphere storms with geomagnetic precursors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gulyaeva, Tamara; Stanislawska, Iwona; Arikan, Feza; Arikan, Orhan

    The probability of occurrence of the positive and negative planetary ionosphere storms is evaluated using the W index maps produced from Global Ionospheric Maps of Total Electron Content, GIM-TEC, provided by Jet Propulsion Laboratory, and transformed from geographic coordinates to magnetic coordinates frame. The auroral electrojet AE index and the equatorial disturbance storm time Dst index are investigated as precursors of the global ionosphere storm. The superposed epoch analysis is performed for 77 intense storms (Dst≤-100 nT) and 227 moderate storms (-100probability per map, pW+, and negative storm probability pW- with model parameters determined using Particle Swarm Optimization routine with the best fitting to the data in the least squares sense. The normalized cross-correlation function is used to define lag (time delay) between the probability of positive phase pW+ (W = 3 and 4) and negative phase pW- (W = -3 and -4) of ionosphere storm, versus AE index and Dst index. It is found that AE index better suits to serve as a precursor of the ionosphere storm than Dst index with onset of the average auroral AE storm occurring 6 h before the equatorial Dst storm onset for intense storms and 3 h in advance of moderate Dst storm. The similar space zones advancement of the ionosphere storm is observed with W index (pW+ and pW-) depicting maximum localized in the polar magnetic zone and minimum at magnetic equator. An empirical relation for pW+ and pW- with AE storm precursor is derived which enables the probability of occurrence of the ionosphere storm to be predicted with leading time of 1-2 h for the positive ionosphere storm and 9-10 h for the negative ionosphere storm. The ionosphere storm probability model is validated using data for 2 intense and 20

  20. Using Prediction Markets to Generate Probability Density Functions for Climate Change Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boslough, M.

    2011-12-01

    Climate-related uncertainty is traditionally presented as an error bar, but it is becoming increasingly common to express it in terms of a probability density function (PDF). PDFs are a necessary component of probabilistic risk assessments, for which simple "best estimate" values are insufficient. Many groups have generated PDFs for climate sensitivity using a variety of methods. These PDFs are broadly consistent, but vary significantly in their details. One axiom of the verification and validation community is, "codes don't make predictions, people make predictions." This is a statement of the fact that subject domain experts generate results using assumptions within a range of epistemic uncertainty and interpret them according to their expert opinion. Different experts with different methods will arrive at different PDFs. For effective decision support, a single consensus PDF would be useful. We suggest that market methods can be used to aggregate an ensemble of opinions into a single distribution that expresses the consensus. Prediction markets have been shown to be highly successful at forecasting the outcome of events ranging from elections to box office returns. In prediction markets, traders can take a position on whether some future event will or will not occur. These positions are expressed as contracts that are traded in a double-action market that aggregates price, which can be interpreted as a consensus probability that the event will take place. Since climate sensitivity cannot directly be measured, it cannot be predicted. However, the changes in global mean surface temperature are a direct consequence of climate sensitivity, changes in forcing, and internal variability. Viable prediction markets require an undisputed event outcome on a specific date. Climate-related markets exist on Intrade.com, an online trading exchange. One such contract is titled "Global Temperature Anomaly for Dec 2011 to be greater than 0.65 Degrees C." Settlement is based

  1. Monte Carlo method for computing density of states and quench probability of potential energy and enthalpy landscapes.

    PubMed

    Mauro, John C; Loucks, Roger J; Balakrishnan, Jitendra; Raghavan, Srikanth

    2007-05-21

    The thermodynamics and kinetics of a many-body system can be described in terms of a potential energy landscape in multidimensional configuration space. The partition function of such a landscape can be written in terms of a density of states, which can be computed using a variety of Monte Carlo techniques. In this paper, a new self-consistent Monte Carlo method for computing density of states is described that uses importance sampling and a multiplicative update factor to achieve rapid convergence. The technique is then applied to compute the equilibrium quench probability of the various inherent structures (minima) in the landscape. The quench probability depends on both the potential energy of the inherent structure and the volume of its corresponding basin in configuration space. Finally, the methodology is extended to the isothermal-isobaric ensemble in order to compute inherent structure quench probabilities in an enthalpy landscape.

  2. Two is better than one: joint statistics of density and velocity in concentric spheres as a cosmological probe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Uhlemann, C.; Codis, S.; Hahn, O.; Pichon, C.; Bernardeau, F.

    2017-08-01

    The analytical formalism to obtain the probability distribution functions (PDFs) of spherically averaged cosmic densities and velocity divergences in the mildly non-linear regime is presented. A large-deviation principle is applied to those cosmic fields assuming their most likely dynamics in spheres is set by the spherical collapse model. We validate our analytical results using state-of-the-art dark matter simulations with a phase-space resolved velocity field finding a 2 per cent level agreement for a wide range of velocity divergences and densities in the mildly non-linear regime (˜10 Mpc h-1 at redshift zero), usually inaccessible to perturbation theory. From the joint PDF of densities and velocity divergences measured in two concentric spheres, we extract with the same accuracy velocity profiles and conditional velocity PDF subject to a given over/underdensity that are of interest to understand the non-linear evolution of velocity flows. Both PDFs are used to build a simple but accurate maximum likelihood estimator for the redshift evolution of the variance of both the density and velocity divergence fields, which have smaller relative errors than their sample variances when non-linearities appear. Given the dependence of the velocity divergence on the growth rate, there is a significant gain in using the full knowledge of both PDFs to derive constraints on the equation of state-of-dark energy. Thanks to the insensitivity of the velocity divergence to bias, its PDF can be used to obtain unbiased constraints on the growth of structures (σ8, f) or it can be combined with the galaxy density PDF to extract bias parameters.

  3. Simplified Computation for Nonparametric Windows Method of Probability Density Function Estimation.

    PubMed

    Joshi, Niranjan; Kadir, Timor; Brady, Michael

    2011-08-01

    Recently, Kadir and Brady proposed a method for estimating probability density functions (PDFs) for digital signals which they call the Nonparametric (NP) Windows method. The method involves constructing a continuous space representation of the discrete space and sampled signal by using a suitable interpolation method. NP Windows requires only a small number of observed signal samples to estimate the PDF and is completely data driven. In this short paper, we first develop analytical formulae to obtain the NP Windows PDF estimates for 1D, 2D, and 3D signals, for different interpolation methods. We then show that the original procedure to calculate the PDF estimate can be significantly simplified and made computationally more efficient by a judicious choice of the frame of reference. We have also outlined specific algorithmic details of the procedures enabling quick implementation. Our reformulation of the original concept has directly demonstrated a close link between the NP Windows method and the Kernel Density Estimator.

  4. Serial Spike Time Correlations Affect Probability Distribution of Joint Spike Events.

    PubMed

    Shahi, Mina; van Vreeswijk, Carl; Pipa, Gordon

    2016-01-01

    Detecting the existence of temporally coordinated spiking activity, and its role in information processing in the cortex, has remained a major challenge for neuroscience research. Different methods and approaches have been suggested to test whether the observed synchronized events are significantly different from those expected by chance. To analyze the simultaneous spike trains for precise spike correlation, these methods typically model the spike trains as a Poisson process implying that the generation of each spike is independent of all the other spikes. However, studies have shown that neural spike trains exhibit dependence among spike sequences, such as the absolute and relative refractory periods which govern the spike probability of the oncoming action potential based on the time of the last spike, or the bursting behavior, which is characterized by short epochs of rapid action potentials, followed by longer episodes of silence. Here we investigate non-renewal processes with the inter-spike interval distribution model that incorporates spike-history dependence of individual neurons. For that, we use the Monte Carlo method to estimate the full shape of the coincidence count distribution and to generate false positives for coincidence detection. The results show that compared to the distributions based on homogeneous Poisson processes, and also non-Poisson processes, the width of the distribution of joint spike events changes. Non-renewal processes can lead to both heavy tailed or narrow coincidence distribution. We conclude that small differences in the exact autostructure of the point process can cause large differences in the width of a coincidence distribution. Therefore, manipulations of the autostructure for the estimation of significance of joint spike events seem to be inadequate.

  5. Serial Spike Time Correlations Affect Probability Distribution of Joint Spike Events

    PubMed Central

    Shahi, Mina; van Vreeswijk, Carl; Pipa, Gordon

    2016-01-01

    Detecting the existence of temporally coordinated spiking activity, and its role in information processing in the cortex, has remained a major challenge for neuroscience research. Different methods and approaches have been suggested to test whether the observed synchronized events are significantly different from those expected by chance. To analyze the simultaneous spike trains for precise spike correlation, these methods typically model the spike trains as a Poisson process implying that the generation of each spike is independent of all the other spikes. However, studies have shown that neural spike trains exhibit dependence among spike sequences, such as the absolute and relative refractory periods which govern the spike probability of the oncoming action potential based on the time of the last spike, or the bursting behavior, which is characterized by short epochs of rapid action potentials, followed by longer episodes of silence. Here we investigate non-renewal processes with the inter-spike interval distribution model that incorporates spike-history dependence of individual neurons. For that, we use the Monte Carlo method to estimate the full shape of the coincidence count distribution and to generate false positives for coincidence detection. The results show that compared to the distributions based on homogeneous Poisson processes, and also non-Poisson processes, the width of the distribution of joint spike events changes. Non-renewal processes can lead to both heavy tailed or narrow coincidence distribution. We conclude that small differences in the exact autostructure of the point process can cause large differences in the width of a coincidence distribution. Therefore, manipulations of the autostructure for the estimation of significance of joint spike events seem to be inadequate. PMID:28066225

  6. Coupled Monte Carlo Probability Density Function/ SPRAY/CFD Code Developed for Modeling Gas-Turbine Combustor Flows

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1995-01-01

    The success of any solution methodology for studying gas-turbine combustor flows depends a great deal on how well it can model various complex, rate-controlling processes associated with turbulent transport, mixing, chemical kinetics, evaporation and spreading rates of the spray, convective and radiative heat transfer, and other phenomena. These phenomena often strongly interact with each other at disparate time and length scales. In particular, turbulence plays an important role in determining the rates of mass and heat transfer, chemical reactions, and evaporation in many practical combustion devices. Turbulence manifests its influence in a diffusion flame in several forms depending on how turbulence interacts with various flame scales. These forms range from the so-called wrinkled, or stretched, flamelets regime, to the distributed combustion regime. Conventional turbulence closure models have difficulty in treating highly nonlinear reaction rates. A solution procedure based on the joint composition probability density function (PDF) approach holds the promise of modeling various important combustion phenomena relevant to practical combustion devices such as extinction, blowoff limits, and emissions predictions because it can handle the nonlinear chemical reaction rates without any approximation. In this approach, mean and turbulence gas-phase velocity fields are determined from a standard turbulence model; the joint composition field of species and enthalpy are determined from the solution of a modeled PDF transport equation; and a Lagrangian-based dilute spray model is used for the liquid-phase representation with appropriate consideration of the exchanges of mass, momentum, and energy between the two phases. The PDF transport equation is solved by a Monte Carlo method, and existing state-of-the-art numerical representations are used to solve the mean gasphase velocity and turbulence fields together with the liquid-phase equations. The joint composition PDF

  7. Estimating the population size and colony boundary of subterranean termites by using the density functions of directionally averaged capture probability.

    PubMed

    Su, Nan-Yao; Lee, Sang-Hee

    2008-04-01

    Marked termites were released in a linear-connected foraging arena, and the spatial heterogeneity of their capture probabilities was averaged for both directions at distance r from release point to obtain a symmetrical distribution, from which the density function of directionally averaged capture probability P(x) was derived. We hypothesized that as marked termites move into the population and given sufficient time, the directionally averaged capture probability may reach an equilibrium P(e) over the distance r and thus satisfy the equal mixing assumption of the mark-recapture protocol. The equilibrium capture probability P(e) was used to estimate the population size N. The hypothesis was tested in a 50-m extended foraging arena to simulate the distance factor of field colonies of subterranean termites. Over the 42-d test period, the density functions of directionally averaged capture probability P(x) exhibited four phases: exponential decline phase, linear decline phase, equilibrium phase, and postequilibrium phase. The equilibrium capture probability P(e), derived as the intercept of the linear regression during the equilibrium phase, correctly projected N estimates that were not significantly different from the known number of workers in the arena. Because the area beneath the probability density function is a constant (50% in this study), preequilibrium regression parameters and P(e) were used to estimate the population boundary distance 1, which is the distance between the release point and the boundary beyond which the population is absent.

  8. A joint probability approach for coincidental flood frequency analysis at ungauged basin confluences

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Wang, Cheng

    2016-03-12

    A reliable and accurate flood frequency analysis at the confluence of streams is of importance. Given that long-term peak flow observations are often unavailable at tributary confluences, at a practical level, this paper presents a joint probability approach (JPA) to address the coincidental flood frequency analysis at the ungauged confluence of two streams based on the flow rate data from the upstream tributaries. One case study is performed for comparison against several traditional approaches, including the position-plotting formula, the univariate flood frequency analysis, and the National Flood Frequency Program developed by US Geological Survey. It shows that the results generatedmore » by the JPA approach agree well with the floods estimated by the plotting position and univariate flood frequency analysis based on the observation data.« less

  9. Simulation Of Wave Function And Probability Density Of Modified Poschl Teller Potential Derived Using Supersymmetric Quantum Mechanics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Angraini, Lily Maysari; Suparmi, Variani, Viska Inda

    2010-12-01

    SUSY quantum mechanics can be applied to solve Schrodinger equation for high dimensional system that can be reduced into one dimensional system and represented in lowering and raising operators. Lowering and raising operators can be obtained using relationship between original Hamiltonian equation and the (super) potential equation. In this paper SUSY quantum mechanics is used as a method to obtain the wave function and the energy level of the Modified Poschl Teller potential. The graph of wave function equation and probability density is simulated by using Delphi 7.0 programming language. Finally, the expectation value of quantum mechanics operator could be calculated analytically using integral form or probability density graph resulted by the programming.

  10. Multiple Streaming and the Probability Distribution of Density in Redshift Space

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hui, Lam; Kofman, Lev; Shandarin, Sergei F.

    2000-07-01

    We examine several aspects of redshift distortions by expressing the redshift-space density in terms of the eigenvalues and orientation of the local Lagrangian deformation tensor. We explore the importance of multiple streaming using the Zeldovich approximation (ZA), and compute the average number of streams in both real and redshift space. We find that multiple streaming can be significant in redshift space but negligible in real space, even at moderate values of the linear fluctuation amplitude (σl<~1). Moreover, unlike their real-space counterparts, redshift-space multiple streams can flow past each other with minimal interactions. Such nonlinear redshift-space effects, which are physically distinct from the fingers-of-God due to small-scale virialized motions, might in part explain the well-known departure of redshift distortions from the classic linear prediction by Kaiser, even at relatively large scales where the corresponding density field in real space is well described by linear perturbation theory. We also compute, using the ZA, the probability distribution function (PDF) of the density, as well as S3, in real and redshift space, and compare it with the PDF measured from N-body simulations. The role of caustics in defining the character of the high-density tail is examined. We find that (non-Lagrangian) smoothing, due to both finite resolution or discreteness and small-scale velocity dispersions, is very effective in erasing caustic structures, unless the initial power spectrum is sufficiently truncated.

  11. Spatial correlations and probability density function of the phase difference in a developed speckle-field: numerical and natural experiments

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Mysina, N Yu; Maksimova, L A; Ryabukho, V P

    Investigated are statistical properties of the phase difference of oscillations in speckle-fields at two points in the far-field diffraction region, with different shapes of the scatterer aperture. Statistical and spatial nonuniformity of the probability density function of the field phase difference is established. Numerical experiments show that, for the speckle-fields with an oscillating alternating-sign transverse correlation function, a significant nonuniformity of the probability density function of the phase difference in the correlation region of the field complex amplitude, with the most probable values 0 and p, is observed. A natural statistical interference experiment using Young diagrams has confirmed the resultsmore » of numerical experiments. (laser applications and other topics in quantum electronics)« less

  12. The Independent Effects of Phonotactic Probability and Neighbourhood Density on Lexical Acquisition by Preschool Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Storkel, Holly L.; Lee, Su-Yeon

    2011-01-01

    The goal of this research was to disentangle effects of phonotactic probability, the likelihood of occurrence of a sound sequence, and neighbourhood density, the number of phonologically similar words, in lexical acquisition. Two-word learning experiments were conducted with 4-year-old children. Experiment 1 manipulated phonotactic probability…

  13. Lamb wave-based damage quantification and probability of detection modeling for fatigue life assessment of riveted lap joint

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Jingjing; Wang, Dengjiang; Zhang, Weifang

    2015-03-01

    This study presents an experimental and modeling study for damage detection and quantification in riveted lap joints. Embedded lead zirconate titanate piezoelectric (PZT) ceramic wafer-type sensors are employed to perform in-situ non-destructive testing during fatigue cyclical loading. A multi-feature integration method is developed to quantify the crack size using signal features of correlation coefficient, amplitude change, and phase change. In addition, probability of detection (POD) model is constructed to quantify the reliability of the developed sizing method. Using the developed crack size quantification method and the resulting POD curve, probabilistic fatigue life prediction can be performed to provide comprehensive information for decision-making. The effectiveness of the overall methodology is demonstrated and validated using several aircraft lap joint specimens from different manufactures and under different loading conditions.

  14. On the probability distribution function of the mass surface density of molecular clouds. II.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fischera, Jörg

    2014-11-01

    The probability distribution function (PDF) of the mass surface density of molecular clouds provides essential information about the structure of molecular cloud gas and condensed structures out of which stars may form. In general, the PDF shows two basic components: a broad distribution around the maximum with resemblance to a log-normal function, and a tail at high mass surface densities attributed to turbulence and self-gravity. In a previous paper, the PDF of condensed structures has been analyzed and an analytical formula presented based on a truncated radial density profile, ρ(r) = ρc/ (1 + (r/r0)2)n/ 2 with central density ρc and inner radius r0, widely used in astrophysics as a generalization of physical density profiles. In this paper, the results are applied to analyze the PDF of self-gravitating, isothermal, pressurized, spherical (Bonnor-Ebert spheres) and cylindrical condensed structures with emphasis on the dependence of the PDF on the external pressure pext and on the overpressure q-1 = pc/pext, where pc is the central pressure. Apart from individual clouds, we also consider ensembles of spheres or cylinders, where effects caused by a variation of pressure ratio, a distribution of condensed cores within a turbulent gas, and (in case of cylinders) a distribution of inclination angles on the mean PDF are analyzed. The probability distribution of pressure ratios q-1 is assumed to be given by P(q-1) ∝ q-k1/ (1 + (q0/q)γ)(k1 + k2) /γ, where k1, γ, k2, and q0 are fixed parameters. The PDF of individual spheres with overpressures below ~100 is well represented by the PDF of a sphere with an analytical density profile with n = 3. At higher pressure ratios, the PDF at mass surface densities Σ ≪ Σ(0), where Σ(0) is the central mass surface density, asymptotically approaches the PDF of a sphere with n = 2. Consequently, the power-law asymptote at mass surface densities above the peak steepens from Psph(Σ) ∝ Σ-2 to Psph(Σ) ∝ Σ-3. The

  15. Multiple Streaming and the Probability Distribution of Density in Redshift Space

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Hui, Lam; Kofman, Lev; Shandarin, Sergei F.

    2000-07-01

    We examine several aspects of redshift distortions by expressing the redshift-space density in terms of the eigenvalues and orientation of the local Lagrangian deformation tensor. We explore the importance of multiple streaming using the Zeldovich approximation (ZA), and compute the average number of streams in both real and redshift space. We find that multiple streaming can be significant in redshift space but negligible in real space, even at moderate values of the linear fluctuation amplitude ({sigma}{sub l}(less-or-similar sign)1). Moreover, unlike their real-space counterparts, redshift-space multiple streams can flow past each other with minimal interactions. Such nonlinear redshift-space effects, which aremore » physically distinct from the fingers-of-God due to small-scale virialized motions, might in part explain the well-known departure of redshift distortions from the classic linear prediction by Kaiser, even at relatively large scales where the corresponding density field in real space is well described by linear perturbation theory. We also compute, using the ZA, the probability distribution function (PDF) of the density, as well as S{sub 3}, in real and redshift space, and compare it with the PDF measured from N-body simulations. The role of caustics in defining the character of the high-density tail is examined. We find that (non-Lagrangian) smoothing, due to both finite resolution or discreteness and small-scale velocity dispersions, is very effective in erasing caustic structures, unless the initial power spectrum is sufficiently truncated. (c) 2000 The American Astronomical Society.« less

  16. Stochastic transport models for mixing in variable-density turbulence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bakosi, J.; Ristorcelli, J. R.

    2011-11-01

    In variable-density (VD) turbulent mixing, where very-different- density materials coexist, the density fluctuations can be an order of magnitude larger than their mean. Density fluctuations are non-negligible in the inertia terms of the Navier-Stokes equation which has both quadratic and cubic nonlinearities. Very different mixing rates of different materials give rise to large differential accelerations and some fundamentally new physics that is not seen in constant-density turbulence. In VD flows material mixing is active in a sense far stronger than that applied in the Boussinesq approximation of buoyantly-driven flows: the mass fraction fluctuations are coupled to each other and to the fluid momentum. Statistical modeling of VD mixing requires accounting for basic constraints that are not important in the small-density-fluctuation passive-scalar-mixing approximation: the unit-sum of mass fractions, bounded sample space, and the highly skewed nature of the probability densities become essential. We derive a transport equation for the joint probability of mass fractions, equivalent to a system of stochastic differential equations, that is consistent with VD mixing in multi-component turbulence and consistently reduces to passive scalar mixing in constant-density flows.

  17. Multiscale Characterization of the Probability Density Functions of Velocity and Temperature Increment Fields

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    DeMarco, Adam Ward

    The turbulent motions with the atmospheric boundary layer exist over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales and are very difficult to characterize. Thus, to explore the behavior of such complex flow enviroments, it is customary to examine their properties from a statistical perspective. Utilizing the probability density functions of velocity and temperature increments, deltau and deltaT, respectively, this work investigates their multiscale behavior to uncover the unique traits that have yet to be thoroughly studied. Utilizing diverse datasets, including idealized, wind tunnel experiments, atmospheric turbulence field measurements, multi-year ABL tower observations, and mesoscale models simulations, this study reveals remarkable similiarities (and some differences) between the small and larger scale components of the probability density functions increments fields. This comprehensive analysis also utilizes a set of statistical distributions to showcase their ability to capture features of the velocity and temperature increments' probability density functions (pdfs) across multiscale atmospheric motions. An approach is proposed for estimating their pdfs utilizing the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) technique, which has never been conducted utilizing atmospheric data. Using this technique, we reveal the ability to estimate higher-order moments accurately with a limited sample size, which has been a persistent concern for atmospheric turbulence research. With the use robust Goodness of Fit (GoF) metrics, we quantitatively reveal the accuracy of the distributions to the diverse dataset. Through this analysis, it is shown that the normal inverse Gaussian (NIG) distribution is a prime candidate to be used as an estimate of the increment pdfs fields. Therefore, using the NIG model and its parameters, we display the variations in the increments over a range of scales revealing some unique scale-dependent qualities under various stability and ow conditions. This

  18. Probability density cloud as a geometrical tool to describe statistics of scattered light.

    PubMed

    Yaitskova, Natalia

    2017-04-01

    First-order statistics of scattered light is described using the representation of the probability density cloud, which visualizes a two-dimensional distribution for complex amplitude. The geometric parameters of the cloud are studied in detail and are connected to the statistical properties of phase. The moment-generating function for intensity is obtained in a closed form through these parameters. An example of exponentially modified normal distribution is provided to illustrate the functioning of this geometrical approach.

  19. The effects of urbanization on population density, occupancy, and detection probability of wild felids.

    PubMed

    Lewis, Jesse S; Logan, Kenneth A; Alldredge, Mat W; Bailey, Larissa L; VandeWoude, Sue; Crooks, Kevin R

    2015-10-01

    Urbanization is a primary driver of landscape conversion, with far-reaching effects on landscape pattern and process, particularly related to the population characteristics of animals. Urbanization can alter animal movement and habitat quality, both of which can influence population abundance and persistence. We evaluated three important population characteristics (population density, site occupancy, and species detection probability) of a medium-sized and a large carnivore across varying levels of urbanization. Specifically, we studied bobcat and puma populations across wildland, exurban development, and wildland-urban interface (WUI) sampling grids to test hypotheses evaluating how urbanization affects wild felid populations and their prey. Exurban development appeared to have a greater impact on felid populations than did habitat adjacent to a major urban area (i.e., WUI); estimates of population density for both bobcats and pumas were lower in areas of exurban development compared to wildland areas, whereas population density was similar between WUI and wildland habitat. Bobcats and pumas were less likely to be detected in habitat as the amount of human disturbance associated with residential development increased at a site, which was potentially related to reduced habitat quality resulting from urbanization. However, occupancy of both felids was similar between grids in both study areas, indicating that this population metric was less sensitive than density. At the scale of the sampling grid, detection probability for bobcats in urbanized habitat was greater than in wildland areas, potentially due to restrictive movement corridors and funneling of animal movements in landscapes influenced by urbanization. Occupancy of important felid prey (cottontail rabbits and mule deer) was similar across levels of urbanization, although elk occupancy was lower in urbanized areas. Our study indicates that the conservation of medium- and large-sized felids associated with

  20. Probabilistic Density Function Method for Stochastic ODEs of Power Systems with Uncertain Power Input

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Wang, Peng; Barajas-Solano, David A.; Constantinescu, Emil

    Wind and solar power generators are commonly described by a system of stochastic ordinary differential equations (SODEs) where random input parameters represent uncertainty in wind and solar energy. The existing methods for SODEs are mostly limited to delta-correlated random parameters (white noise). Here we use the Probability Density Function (PDF) method for deriving a closed-form deterministic partial differential equation (PDE) for the joint probability density function of the SODEs describing a power generator with time-correlated power input. The resulting PDE is solved numerically. A good agreement with Monte Carlo Simulations shows accuracy of the PDF method.

  1. N -tag probability law of the symmetric exclusion process

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Poncet, Alexis; Bénichou, Olivier; Démery, Vincent; Oshanin, Gleb

    2018-06-01

    The symmetric exclusion process (SEP), in which particles hop symmetrically on a discrete line with hard-core constraints, is a paradigmatic model of subdiffusion in confined systems. This anomalous behavior is a direct consequence of strong spatial correlations induced by the requirement that the particles cannot overtake each other. Even if this fact has been recognized qualitatively for a long time, up to now there has been no full quantitative determination of these correlations. Here we study the joint probability distribution of an arbitrary number of tagged particles in the SEP. We determine analytically its large-time limit for an arbitrary density of particles, and its full dynamics in the high-density limit. In this limit, we obtain the time-dependent large deviation function of the problem and unveil a universal scaling form shared by the cumulants.

  2. The probability density function (PDF) of Lagrangian Turbulence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Birnir, B.

    2012-12-01

    The statistical theory of Lagrangian turbulence is derived from the stochastic Navier-Stokes equation. Assuming that the noise in fully-developed turbulence is a generic noise determined by the general theorems in probability, the central limit theorem and the large deviation principle, we are able to formulate and solve the Kolmogorov-Hopf equation for the invariant measure of the stochastic Navier-Stokes equations. The intermittency corrections to the scaling exponents of the structure functions require a multiplicative (multipling the fluid velocity) noise in the stochastic Navier-Stokes equation. We let this multiplicative noise, in the equation, consists of a simple (Poisson) jump process and then show how the Feynmann-Kac formula produces the log-Poissonian processes, found by She and Leveque, Waymire and Dubrulle. These log-Poissonian processes give the intermittency corrections that agree with modern direct Navier-Stokes simulations (DNS) and experiments. The probability density function (PDF) plays a key role when direct Navier-Stokes simulations or experimental results are compared to theory. The statistical theory of turbulence is determined, including the scaling of the structure functions of turbulence, by the invariant measure of the Navier-Stokes equation and the PDFs for the various statistics (one-point, two-point, N-point) can be obtained by taking the trace of the corresponding invariant measures. Hopf derived in 1952 a functional equation for the characteristic function (Fourier transform) of the invariant measure. In distinction to the nonlinear Navier-Stokes equation, this is a linear functional differential equation. The PDFs obtained from the invariant measures for the velocity differences (two-point statistics) are shown to be the four parameter generalized hyperbolic distributions, found by Barndorff-Nilsen. These PDF have heavy tails and a convex peak at the origin. A suitable projection of the Kolmogorov-Hopf equations is the

  3. Indices of Paraspinal Muscles Degeneration: Reliability and Association With Facet Joint Osteoarthritis: Feasibility Study.

    PubMed

    Kalichman, Leonid; Klindukhov, Alexander; Li, Ling; Linov, Lina

    2016-11-01

    A reliability and cross-sectional observational study. To introduce a scoring system for visible fat infiltration in paraspinal muscles; to evaluate intertester and intratester reliability of this system and its relationship with indices of muscle density; to evaluate the association between indices of paraspinal muscle degeneration and facet joint osteoarthritis. Current evidence suggests that the paraspinal muscles degeneration is associated with low back pain, facet joint osteoarthritis, spondylolisthesis, and degenerative disc disease. However, the evaluation of paraspinal muscles on computed tomography is not radiological routine, probably because of absence of simple and reliable indices of paraspinal degeneration. One hundred fifty consecutive computed tomography scans of the lower back (N=75) or abdomen (N=75) were evaluated. Mean radiographic density (in Hounsfield units) and SD of the density of multifidus and erector spinae were evaluated at the L4-L5 spinal level. A new index of muscle degeneration, radiographic density ratio=muscle density/SD of density, was calculated. To evaluate the visible fat infiltration in paraspinal muscles, we proposed a 3-graded scoring system. The prevalence of facet joint osteoarthritis was also evaluated. Intraclass correlation and κ statistics were used to evaluate inter-rater and intra-rater reliability. Logistic regression examined the association between paraspinal muscle indices and facet joint osteoarthritis. Intra-rater reliability for fat infiltration score (κ) ranged between 0.87 and 0.92; inter-rater reliability between 0.70 and 0.81. Intra-rater reliability (intraclass correlation) for mean density of paraspinal muscles ranged between 0.96 and 0.99, inter-rater reliability between 0.95 and 0.99; SD intra-rater reliability ranged between 0.82 and 0.91, inter-rater reliability between 0.80 and 0.89. Significant associations (P<0.01) were found between facet joint osteoarthritis, fat infiltration score, and

  4. Probability density function formalism for optical coherence tomography signal analysis: a controlled phantom study.

    PubMed

    Weatherbee, Andrew; Sugita, Mitsuro; Bizheva, Kostadinka; Popov, Ivan; Vitkin, Alex

    2016-06-15

    The distribution of backscattered intensities as described by the probability density function (PDF) of tissue-scattered light contains information that may be useful for tissue assessment and diagnosis, including characterization of its pathology. In this Letter, we examine the PDF description of the light scattering statistics in a well characterized tissue-like particulate medium using optical coherence tomography (OCT). It is shown that for low scatterer density, the governing statistics depart considerably from a Gaussian description and follow the K distribution for both OCT amplitude and intensity. The PDF formalism is shown to be independent of the scatterer flow conditions; this is expected from theory, and suggests robustness and motion independence of the OCT amplitude (and OCT intensity) PDF metrics in the context of potential biomedical applications.

  5. Estimation of the four-wave mixing noise probability-density function by the multicanonical Monte Carlo method.

    PubMed

    Neokosmidis, Ioannis; Kamalakis, Thomas; Chipouras, Aristides; Sphicopoulos, Thomas

    2005-01-01

    The performance of high-powered wavelength-division multiplexed (WDM) optical networks can be severely degraded by four-wave-mixing- (FWM-) induced distortion. The multicanonical Monte Carlo method (MCMC) is used to calculate the probability-density function (PDF) of the decision variable of a receiver, limited by FWM noise. Compared with the conventional Monte Carlo method previously used to estimate this PDF, the MCMC method is much faster and can accurately estimate smaller error probabilities. The method takes into account the correlation between the components of the FWM noise, unlike the Gaussian model, which is shown not to provide accurate results.

  6. The Efficacy of Using Diagrams When Solving Probability Word Problems in College

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Beitzel, Brian D.; Staley, Richard K.

    2015-01-01

    Previous experiments have shown a deleterious effect of visual representations on college students' ability to solve total- and joint-probability word problems. The present experiments used conditional-probability problems, known to be more difficult than total- and joint-probability problems. The diagram group was instructed in how to use tree…

  7. Effects of Energy Density and Shielding Medium on Performance of Laser Beam Welding (LBW) Joints on SAF2205 Duplex Stainless Steel

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, W. W.; Cong, S.; Luo, S. B.; Fang, J. H.

    2018-05-01

    The corrosion resistance performance of SAF2205 duplex stainless steel depends on the amount of ferrite to austenite transformation, but the ferrite content after power beam welding is always excessively high. To obtain laser beam welding joints with better mechanical and corrosion resistance performance, the effects of the energy density and shielding medium on the austenite content, hardness distribution, and shear strength were investigated. The results showed that ferrite to austenite transformation was realized with increase in the energy density. When the energy density was increased from 120 J/mm to 200 J/mm, the austenite content of the welding joint changed from 2.6% to 38.5%. Addition of nitrogen gas to the shielding medium could promote formation of austenite. When the shielding medium contained 50% and 100% nitrogen gas, the austenite content of the welding joint was 42.7% and 47.2%, respectively. The hardness and shear strength were significantly improved by increase in the energy density. However, the shielding medium had less effect on the mechanical performance. Use of the optimal welding process parameters resulted in peak hardness of 375 HV and average shear strength of 670 MPa.

  8. Random function representation of stationary stochastic vector processes for probability density evolution analysis of wind-induced structures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Zhangjun; Liu, Zenghui

    2018-06-01

    This paper develops a hybrid approach of spectral representation and random function for simulating stationary stochastic vector processes. In the proposed approach, the high-dimensional random variables, included in the original spectral representation (OSR) formula, could be effectively reduced to only two elementary random variables by introducing the random functions that serve as random constraints. Based on this, a satisfactory simulation accuracy can be guaranteed by selecting a small representative point set of the elementary random variables. The probability information of the stochastic excitations can be fully emerged through just several hundred of sample functions generated by the proposed approach. Therefore, combined with the probability density evolution method (PDEM), it could be able to implement dynamic response analysis and reliability assessment of engineering structures. For illustrative purposes, a stochastic turbulence wind velocity field acting on a frame-shear-wall structure is simulated by constructing three types of random functions to demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed approach. Careful and in-depth studies concerning the probability density evolution analysis of the wind-induced structure have been conducted so as to better illustrate the application prospects of the proposed approach. Numerical examples also show that the proposed approach possesses a good robustness.

  9. Independent events in elementary probability theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Csenki, Attila

    2011-07-01

    In Probability and Statistics taught to mathematicians as a first introduction or to a non-mathematical audience, joint independence of events is introduced by requiring that the multiplication rule is satisfied. The following statement is usually tacitly assumed to hold (and, at best, intuitively motivated): If the n events E 1, E 2, … , E n are jointly independent then any two events A and B built in finitely many steps from two disjoint subsets of E 1, E 2, … , E n are also independent. The operations 'union', 'intersection' and 'complementation' are permitted only when forming the events A and B. Here we examine this statement from the point of view of elementary probability theory. The approach described here is accessible also to users of probability theory and is believed to be novel.

  10. A H-infinity Fault Detection and Diagnosis Scheme for Discrete Nonlinear System Using Output Probability Density Estimation

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Zhang Yumin; Lum, Kai-Yew; Wang Qingguo

    In this paper, a H-infinity fault detection and diagnosis (FDD) scheme for a class of discrete nonlinear system fault using output probability density estimation is presented. Unlike classical FDD problems, the measured output of the system is viewed as a stochastic process and its square root probability density function (PDF) is modeled with B-spline functions, which leads to a deterministic space-time dynamic model including nonlinearities, uncertainties. A weighting mean value is given as an integral function of the square root PDF along space direction, which leads a function only about time and can be used to construct residual signal. Thus,more » the classical nonlinear filter approach can be used to detect and diagnose the fault in system. A feasible detection criterion is obtained at first, and a new H-infinity adaptive fault diagnosis algorithm is further investigated to estimate the fault. Simulation example is given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approaches.« less

  11. A H-infinity Fault Detection and Diagnosis Scheme for Discrete Nonlinear System Using Output Probability Density Estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Yumin; Wang, Qing-Guo; Lum, Kai-Yew

    2009-03-01

    In this paper, a H-infinity fault detection and diagnosis (FDD) scheme for a class of discrete nonlinear system fault using output probability density estimation is presented. Unlike classical FDD problems, the measured output of the system is viewed as a stochastic process and its square root probability density function (PDF) is modeled with B-spline functions, which leads to a deterministic space-time dynamic model including nonlinearities, uncertainties. A weighting mean value is given as an integral function of the square root PDF along space direction, which leads a function only about time and can be used to construct residual signal. Thus, the classical nonlinear filter approach can be used to detect and diagnose the fault in system. A feasible detection criterion is obtained at first, and a new H-infinity adaptive fault diagnosis algorithm is further investigated to estimate the fault. Simulation example is given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approaches.

  12. Probability Density Functions of Observed Rainfall in Montana

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Larsen, Scott D.; Johnson, L. Ronald; Smith, Paul L.

    1995-01-01

    The question of whether a rain rate probability density function (PDF) can vary uniformly between precipitation events is examined. Image analysis on large samples of radar echoes is possible because of advances in technology. The data provided by such an analysis easily allow development of radar reflectivity factors (and by extension rain rate) distribution. Finding a PDF becomes a matter of finding a function that describes the curve approximating the resulting distributions. Ideally, one PDF would exist for all cases; or many PDF's that have the same functional form with only systematic variations in parameters (such as size or shape) exist. Satisfying either of theses cases will, validate the theoretical basis of the Area Time Integral (ATI). Using the method of moments and Elderton's curve selection criteria, the Pearson Type 1 equation was identified as a potential fit for 89 percent of the observed distributions. Further analysis indicates that the Type 1 curve does approximate the shape of the distributions but quantitatively does not produce a great fit. Using the method of moments and Elderton's curve selection criteria, the Pearson Type 1 equation was identified as a potential fit for 89% of the observed distributions. Further analysis indicates that the Type 1 curve does approximate the shape of the distributions but quantitatively does not produce a great fit.

  13. Spatial variation of fixed charge density in knee joint cartilage from sodium MRI - Implication on knee joint mechanics under static loading.

    PubMed

    Räsänen, Lasse P; Tanska, Petri; Mononen, Mika E; Lammentausta, Eveliina; Zbýň, Štefan; Venäläinen, Mikko S; Szomolanyi, Pavol; van Donkelaar, Corrinus C; Jurvelin, Jukka S; Trattnig, Siegfried; Nieminen, Miika T; Korhonen, Rami K

    2016-10-03

    The effects of fixed charge density (FCD) and cartilage swelling have not been demonstrated on cartilage mechanics on knee joint level before. In this study, we present how the spatial and local variations of FCD affects the mechanical response of the knee joint cartilage during standing (half of the body weight, 13 minutes) using finite element (FE) modeling. The FCD distribution of tibial cartilage of an asymptomatic subject was determined using sodium ( 23 Na) MRI at 7T and implemented into a 3-D FE-model of the knee joint (Subject-specific model, FCD: 0.18±0.08 mEq/ml). Tissue deformation in the Subject-specific model was validated against experimental, in vivo loading of the joint conducted with a MR-compatible compression device. For comparison, models with homogeneous FCD distribution (homogeneous model) and FCD distribution obtained from literature (literature model) were created. Immediately after application of the load (dynamic response), the variations in FCD had minor effects on cartilage stresses and strains. After 13 minutes of standing, the spatial and local variations in FCD had most influence on axial strains. In the superficial tibial cartilage in the Subject-specific model, axial strains were increased up to +13% due to smaller FCD (mean -11%), as compared to the homogeneous model. Compared to the literature model, those were decreased up to -18% due to greater FCD (mean +7%). The findings demonstrate that the spatial and local FCD variations in cartilage modulates strains in knee joint cartilage. Thereby, the results highlight the mechanical importance of site-specific content of proteoglycans in cartilage. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Eulerian Mapping Closure Approach for Probability Density Function of Concentration in Shear Flows

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    He, Guowei; Bushnell, Dennis M. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    The Eulerian mapping closure approach is developed for uncertainty propagation in computational fluid mechanics. The approach is used to study the Probability Density Function (PDF) for the concentration of species advected by a random shear flow. An analytical argument shows that fluctuation of the concentration field at one point in space is non-Gaussian and exhibits stretched exponential form. An Eulerian mapping approach provides an appropriate approximation to both convection and diffusion terms and leads to a closed mapping equation. The results obtained describe the evolution of the initial Gaussian field, which is in agreement with direct numerical simulations.

  15. On the probability distribution function of the mass surface density of molecular clouds. I

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fischera, Jörg

    2014-05-01

    The probability distribution function (PDF) of the mass surface density is an essential characteristic of the structure of molecular clouds or the interstellar medium in general. Observations of the PDF of molecular clouds indicate a composition of a broad distribution around the maximum and a decreasing tail at high mass surface densities. The first component is attributed to the random distribution of gas which is modeled using a log-normal function while the second component is attributed to condensed structures modeled using a simple power-law. The aim of this paper is to provide an analytical model of the PDF of condensed structures which can be used by observers to extract information about the condensations. The condensed structures are considered to be either spheres or cylinders with a truncated radial density profile at cloud radius rcl. The assumed profile is of the form ρ(r) = ρc/ (1 + (r/r0)2)n/ 2 for arbitrary power n where ρc and r0 are the central density and the inner radius, respectively. An implicit function is obtained which either truncates (sphere) or has a pole (cylinder) at maximal mass surface density. The PDF of spherical condensations and the asymptotic PDF of cylinders in the limit of infinite overdensity ρc/ρ(rcl) flattens for steeper density profiles and has a power law asymptote at low and high mass surface densities and a well defined maximum. The power index of the asymptote Σ- γ of the logarithmic PDF (ΣP(Σ)) in the limit of high mass surface densities is given by γ = (n + 1)/(n - 1) - 1 (spheres) or by γ = n/ (n - 1) - 1 (cylinders in the limit of infinite overdensity). Appendices are available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org

  16. Spectral Discrete Probability Density Function of Measured Wind Turbine Noise in the Far Field

    PubMed Central

    Ashtiani, Payam; Denison, Adelaide

    2015-01-01

    Of interest is the spectral character of wind turbine noise at typical residential set-back distances. In this paper, a spectral statistical analysis has been applied to immission measurements conducted at three locations. This method provides discrete probability density functions for the Turbine ONLY component of the measured noise. This analysis is completed for one-third octave sound levels, at integer wind speeds, and is compared to existing metrics for measuring acoustic comfort as well as previous discussions on low-frequency noise sources. PMID:25905097

  17. Ceramic joints

    DOEpatents

    Miller, Bradley J.; Patten, Jr., Donald O.

    1991-01-01

    Butt joints between materials having different coefficients of thermal expansion are prepared having a reduced probability of failure of stress facture. This is accomplished by narrowing/tapering the material having the lower coefficient of thermal expansion in a direction away from the joint interface and not joining the narrow-tapered surface to the material having the higher coefficient of thermal expansion.

  18. On probability-possibility transformations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Klir, George J.; Parviz, Behzad

    1992-01-01

    Several probability-possibility transformations are compared in terms of the closeness of preserving second-order properties. The comparison is based on experimental results obtained by computer simulation. Two second-order properties are involved in this study: noninteraction of two distributions and projections of a joint distribution.

  19. Multifractal analysis with the probability density function at the three-dimensional anderson transition.

    PubMed

    Rodriguez, Alberto; Vasquez, Louella J; Römer, Rudolf A

    2009-03-13

    The probability density function (PDF) for critical wave function amplitudes is studied in the three-dimensional Anderson model. We present a formal expression between the PDF and the multifractal spectrum f(alpha) in which the role of finite-size corrections is properly analyzed. We show the non-Gaussian nature and the existence of a symmetry relation in the PDF. From the PDF, we extract information about f(alpha) at criticality such as the presence of negative fractal dimensions and the possible existence of termination points. A PDF-based multifractal analysis is shown to be a valid alternative to the standard approach based on the scaling of inverse participation ratios.

  20. A population-based tissue probability map-driven level set method for fully automated mammographic density estimations.

    PubMed

    Kim, Youngwoo; Hong, Byung Woo; Kim, Seung Ja; Kim, Jong Hyo

    2014-07-01

    A major challenge when distinguishing glandular tissues on mammograms, especially for area-based estimations, lies in determining a boundary on a hazy transition zone from adipose to glandular tissues. This stems from the nature of mammography, which is a projection of superimposed tissues consisting of different structures. In this paper, the authors present a novel segmentation scheme which incorporates the learned prior knowledge of experts into a level set framework for fully automated mammographic density estimations. The authors modeled the learned knowledge as a population-based tissue probability map (PTPM) that was designed to capture the classification of experts' visual systems. The PTPM was constructed using an image database of a selected population consisting of 297 cases. Three mammogram experts extracted regions for dense and fatty tissues on digital mammograms, which was an independent subset used to create a tissue probability map for each ROI based on its local statistics. This tissue class probability was taken as a prior in the Bayesian formulation and was incorporated into a level set framework as an additional term to control the evolution and followed the energy surface designed to reflect experts' knowledge as well as the regional statistics inside and outside of the evolving contour. A subset of 100 digital mammograms, which was not used in constructing the PTPM, was used to validate the performance. The energy was minimized when the initial contour reached the boundary of the dense and fatty tissues, as defined by experts. The correlation coefficient between mammographic density measurements made by experts and measurements by the proposed method was 0.93, while that with the conventional level set was 0.47. The proposed method showed a marked improvement over the conventional level set method in terms of accuracy and reliability. This result suggests that the proposed method successfully incorporated the learned knowledge of the experts

  1. Parameterizing deep convection using the assumed probability density function method

    DOE PAGES

    Storer, R. L.; Griffin, B. M.; Höft, J.; ...

    2014-06-11

    Due to their coarse horizontal resolution, present-day climate models must parameterize deep convection. This paper presents single-column simulations of deep convection using a probability density function (PDF) parameterization. The PDF parameterization predicts the PDF of subgrid variability of turbulence, clouds, and hydrometeors. That variability is interfaced to a prognostic microphysics scheme using a Monte Carlo sampling method. The PDF parameterization is used to simulate tropical deep convection, the transition from shallow to deep convection over land, and mid-latitude deep convection. These parameterized single-column simulations are compared with 3-D reference simulations. The agreement is satisfactory except when the convective forcing ismore » weak. The same PDF parameterization is also used to simulate shallow cumulus and stratocumulus layers. The PDF method is sufficiently general to adequately simulate these five deep, shallow, and stratiform cloud cases with a single equation set. This raises hopes that it may be possible in the future, with further refinements at coarse time step and grid spacing, to parameterize all cloud types in a large-scale model in a unified way.« less

  2. Parameterizing deep convection using the assumed probability density function method

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Storer, R. L.; Griffin, B. M.; Höft, J.

    2015-01-06

    Due to their coarse horizontal resolution, present-day climate models must parameterize deep convection. This paper presents single-column simulations of deep convection using a probability density function (PDF) parameterization. The PDF parameterization predicts the PDF of subgrid variability of turbulence, clouds, and hydrometeors. That variability is interfaced to a prognostic microphysics scheme using a Monte Carlo sampling method.The PDF parameterization is used to simulate tropical deep convection, the transition from shallow to deep convection over land, and midlatitude deep convection. These parameterized single-column simulations are compared with 3-D reference simulations. The agreement is satisfactory except when the convective forcing is weak.more » The same PDF parameterization is also used to simulate shallow cumulus and stratocumulus layers. The PDF method is sufficiently general to adequately simulate these five deep, shallow, and stratiform cloud cases with a single equation set. This raises hopes that it may be possible in the future, with further refinements at coarse time step and grid spacing, to parameterize all cloud types in a large-scale model in a unified way.« less

  3. Parameterizing deep convection using the assumed probability density function method

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Storer, R. L.; Griffin, B. M.; Hoft, Jan

    2015-01-06

    Due to their coarse horizontal resolution, present-day climate models must parameterize deep convection. This paper presents single-column simulations of deep convection using a probability density function (PDF) parameterization. The PDF parameterization predicts the PDF of subgrid variability of turbulence, clouds, and hydrometeors. That variability is interfaced to a prognostic microphysics scheme using a Monte Carlo sampling method.The PDF parameterization is used to simulate tropical deep convection, the transition from shallow to deep convection over land, and mid-latitude deep convection.These parameterized single-column simulations are compared with 3-D reference simulations. The agreement is satisfactory except when the convective forcing is weak. Themore » same PDF parameterization is also used to simulate shallow cumulus and stratocumulus layers. The PDF method is sufficiently general to adequately simulate these five deep, shallow, and stratiform cloud cases with a single equation set. This raises hopes that it may be possible in the future, with further refinements at coarse time step and grid spacing, to parameterize all cloud types in a large-scale model in a unified way.« less

  4. Probability and Quantum Paradigms: the Interplay

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kracklauer, A. F.

    2007-12-01

    Since the introduction of Born's interpretation of quantum wave functions as yielding the probability density of presence, Quantum Theory and Probability have lived in a troubled symbiosis. Problems arise with this interpretation because quantum probabilities exhibit features alien to usual probabilities, namely non Boolean structure and non positive-definite phase space probability densities. This has inspired research into both elaborate formulations of Probability Theory and alternate interpretations for wave functions. Herein the latter tactic is taken and a suggested variant interpretation of wave functions based on photo detection physics proposed, and some empirical consequences are considered. Although incomplete in a few details, this variant is appealing in its reliance on well tested concepts and technology.

  5. Joint density-functional theory for energetics and spectroscopy in complex aqueous and nonaqueous solvents

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gunceler, Deniz

    Solvents are of great importance in many technological applications, but are difficult to study using standard, off-the-shelf ab initio electronic structure methods. This is because a single configuration of molecular positions in the solvent (a "snapshot" of the fluid) is not necessarily representative of the thermodynamic average. To obtain any thermodynamic averages (e.g. free energies), the phase space of the solvent must be sampled, typically using molecular dynamics. This greatly increases the computational cost involved in studying solvated systems. Joint density-functional theory has made its mark by being a computationally efficient yet rigorous theory by which to study solvation. It replaces the need for thermodynamic sampling with an effective continuum description of the solvent environment that is in-principle exact, computationally efficient and intuitive (easier to interpret). It has been very successful in aqueous systems, with potential applications in (among others) energy materials discovery, catalysis and surface science. In this dissertation, we develop accurate and fast joint density functional theories for complex, non-aqueous solvent enviroments, including organic solvents and room temperature ionic liquids, as well as new methods for calculating electron excitation spectra in such systems. These theories are then applied to a range of physical problems, from dendrite formation in lithium-metal batteries to the optical spectra of solvated ions.

  6. The relationship between species detection probability and local extinction probability

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Alpizar-Jara, R.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Sauer, J.R.; Pollock, K.H.; Rosenberry, C.S.

    2004-01-01

    In community-level ecological studies, generally not all species present in sampled areas are detected. Many authors have proposed the use of estimation methods that allow detection probabilities that are < 1 and that are heterogeneous among species. These methods can also be used to estimate community-dynamic parameters such as species local extinction probability and turnover rates (Nichols et al. Ecol Appl 8:1213-1225; Conserv Biol 12:1390-1398). Here, we present an ad hoc approach to estimating community-level vital rates in the presence of joint heterogeneity of detection probabilities and vital rates. The method consists of partitioning the number of species into two groups using the detection frequencies and then estimating vital rates (e.g., local extinction probabilities) for each group. Estimators from each group are combined in a weighted estimator of vital rates that accounts for the effect of heterogeneity. Using data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey, we computed such estimates and tested the hypothesis that detection probabilities and local extinction probabilities were negatively related. Our analyses support the hypothesis that species detection probability covaries negatively with local probability of extinction and turnover rates. A simulation study was conducted to assess the performance of vital parameter estimators as well as other estimators relevant to questions about heterogeneity, such as coefficient of variation of detection probabilities and proportion of species in each group. Both the weighted estimator suggested in this paper and the original unweighted estimator for local extinction probability performed fairly well and provided no basis for preferring one to the other.

  7. Benchmarks for detecting 'breakthroughs' in clinical trials: empirical assessment of the probability of large treatment effects using kernel density estimation.

    PubMed

    Miladinovic, Branko; Kumar, Ambuj; Mhaskar, Rahul; Djulbegovic, Benjamin

    2014-10-21

    To understand how often 'breakthroughs,' that is, treatments that significantly improve health outcomes, can be developed. We applied weighted adaptive kernel density estimation to construct the probability density function for observed treatment effects from five publicly funded cohorts and one privately funded group. 820 trials involving 1064 comparisons and enrolling 331,004 patients were conducted by five publicly funded cooperative groups. 40 cancer trials involving 50 comparisons and enrolling a total of 19,889 patients were conducted by GlaxoSmithKline. We calculated that the probability of detecting treatment with large effects is 10% (5-25%), and that the probability of detecting treatment with very large treatment effects is 2% (0.3-10%). Researchers themselves judged that they discovered a new, breakthrough intervention in 16% of trials. We propose these figures as the benchmarks against which future development of 'breakthrough' treatments should be measured. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  8. Probability and Quantum Paradigms: the Interplay

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Kracklauer, A. F.

    Since the introduction of Born's interpretation of quantum wave functions as yielding the probability density of presence, Quantum Theory and Probability have lived in a troubled symbiosis. Problems arise with this interpretation because quantum probabilities exhibit features alien to usual probabilities, namely non Boolean structure and non positive-definite phase space probability densities. This has inspired research into both elaborate formulations of Probability Theory and alternate interpretations for wave functions. Herein the latter tactic is taken and a suggested variant interpretation of wave functions based on photo detection physics proposed, and some empirical consequences are considered. Although incomplete in a fewmore » details, this variant is appealing in its reliance on well tested concepts and technology.« less

  9. Improved decryption quality and security of a joint transform correlator-based encryption system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vilardy, Juan M.; Millán, María S.; Pérez-Cabré, Elisabet

    2013-02-01

    Some image encryption systems based on modified double random phase encoding and joint transform correlator architecture produce low quality decrypted images and are vulnerable to a variety of attacks. In this work, we analyse the algorithm of some reported methods that optically implement the double random phase encryption in a joint transform correlator. We show that it is possible to significantly improve the quality of the decrypted image by introducing a simple nonlinear operation in the encrypted function that contains the joint power spectrum. This nonlinearity also makes the system more resistant to chosen-plaintext attacks. We additionally explore the system resistance against this type of attack when a variety of probability density functions are used to generate the two random phase masks of the encryption-decryption process. Numerical results are presented and discussed.

  10. Bivariate categorical data analysis using normal linear conditional multinomial probability model.

    PubMed

    Sun, Bingrui; Sutradhar, Brajendra

    2015-02-10

    Bivariate multinomial data such as the left and right eyes retinopathy status data are analyzed either by using a joint bivariate probability model or by exploiting certain odds ratio-based association models. However, the joint bivariate probability model yields marginal probabilities, which are complicated functions of marginal and association parameters for both variables, and the odds ratio-based association model treats the odds ratios involved in the joint probabilities as 'working' parameters, which are consequently estimated through certain arbitrary 'working' regression models. Also, this later odds ratio-based model does not provide any easy interpretations of the correlations between two categorical variables. On the basis of pre-specified marginal probabilities, in this paper, we develop a bivariate normal type linear conditional multinomial probability model to understand the correlations between two categorical variables. The parameters involved in the model are consistently estimated using the optimal likelihood and generalized quasi-likelihood approaches. The proposed model and the inferences are illustrated through an intensive simulation study as well as an analysis of the well-known Wisconsin Diabetic Retinopathy status data. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  11. Unit-Sphere Anisotropic Multiaxial Stochastic-Strength Model Probability Density Distribution for the Orientation of Critical Flaws

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nemeth, Noel

    2013-01-01

    Models that predict the failure probability of monolithic glass and ceramic components under multiaxial loading have been developed by authors such as Batdorf, Evans, and Matsuo. These "unit-sphere" failure models assume that the strength-controlling flaws are randomly oriented, noninteracting planar microcracks of specified geometry but of variable size. This report develops a formulation to describe the probability density distribution of the orientation of critical strength-controlling flaws that results from an applied load. This distribution is a function of the multiaxial stress state, the shear sensitivity of the flaws, the Weibull modulus, and the strength anisotropy. Examples are provided showing the predicted response on the unit sphere for various stress states for isotropic and transversely isotropic (anisotropic) materials--including the most probable orientation of critical flaws for offset uniaxial loads with strength anisotropy. The author anticipates that this information could be used to determine anisotropic stiffness degradation or anisotropic damage evolution for individual brittle (or quasi-brittle) composite material constituents within finite element or micromechanics-based software

  12. Copula Models for Sociology: Measures of Dependence and Probabilities for Joint Distributions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vuolo, Mike

    2017-01-01

    Often in sociology, researchers are confronted with nonnormal variables whose joint distribution they wish to explore. Yet, assumptions of common measures of dependence can fail or estimating such dependence is computationally intensive. This article presents the copula method for modeling the joint distribution of two random variables, including…

  13. 3D joint inversion modeling of the lithospheric density structure based on gravity, geoid and topography data — Application to the Alborz Mountains (Iran) and South Caspian Basin region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Motavalli-Anbaran, Seyed-Hani; Zeyen, Hermann; Ebrahimzadeh Ardestani, Vahid

    2013-02-01

    We present a 3D algorithm to obtain the density structure of the lithosphere from joint inversion of free air gravity, geoid and topography data based on a Bayesian approach with Gaussian probability density functions. The algorithm delivers the crustal and lithospheric thicknesses and the average crustal density. Stabilization of the inversion process may be obtained through parameter damping and smoothing as well as use of a priori information like crustal thicknesses from seismic profiles. The algorithm is applied to synthetic models in order to demonstrate its usefulness. A real data application is presented for the area of northern Iran (with the Alborz Mountains as main target) and the South Caspian Basin. The resulting model shows an important crustal root (up to 55 km) under the Alborz Mountains and a thin crust (ca. 30 km) under the southernmost South Caspian Basin thickening northward to the Apsheron-Balkan Sill to 45 km. Central and NW Iran is underlain by a thin lithosphere (ca. 90-100 km). The lithosphere thickens under the South Caspian Basin until the Apsheron-Balkan Sill where it reaches more than 240 km. Under the stable Turan platform, we find a lithospheric thickness of 160-180 km.

  14. Mantle viscosity structure constrained by joint inversions of seismic velocities and density

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rudolph, M. L.; Moulik, P.; Lekic, V.

    2017-12-01

    The viscosity structure of Earth's deep mantle affects the thermal evolution of Earth, the ascent of mantle upwellings, sinking of subducted oceanic lithosphere, and the mixing of compositional heterogeneities in the mantle. Modeling the long-wavelength dynamic geoid allows us to constrain the radial viscosity profile of the mantle. Typically, in inversions for the mantle viscosity structure, wavespeed variations are mapped into density variations using a constant- or depth-dependent scaling factor. Here, we use a newly developed joint model of anisotropic Vs, Vp, density and transition zone topographies to generate a suite of solutions for the mantle viscosity structure directly from the seismologically constrained density structure. The density structure used to drive our forward models includes contributions from both thermal and compositional variations, including important contributions from compositionally dense material in the Large Low Velocity Provinces at the base of the mantle. These compositional variations have been neglected in the forward models used in most previous inversions and have the potential to significantly affect large-scale flow and thus the inferred viscosity structure. We use a transdimensional, hierarchical, Bayesian approach to solve the inverse problem, and our solutions for viscosity structure include an increase in viscosity below the base of the transition zone, in the shallow lower mantle. Using geoid dynamic response functions and an analysis of the correlation between the observed geoid and mantle structure, we demonstrate the underlying reason for this inference. Finally, we present a new family of solutions in which the data uncertainty is accounted for using covariance matrices associated with the mantle structure models.

  15. Parasitism and a shortage of refuges jointly mediate the strength of density dependence in a reef fish.

    PubMed

    Forrester, Graham E; Finley, Rachel J

    2006-05-01

    Various predator-prey, host-pathogen, and competitive interactions can combine to cause density dependence in population growth. Despite this possibility, most empirical tests for density-dependent interactions have focused on single mechanisms. Here we tested the hypothesis that two mechanisms of density dependence, parasitism and a shortage of refuges, jointly influence the strength of density-dependent mortality. We used mark-recapture analysis to estimate mortality of the host species, the bridled goby (Coryphopterus glaucofraenum). Sixty-three marked gobies were infected with a copepod gill parasite (Pharodes tortugensis), and 188 were uninfected. We used the spatial scale at which gobies were clustered naturally (approximately 4 m2) as an ecologically relevant neighborhood and measured goby density and the availability of refuges from predators within each goby's neighborhood. Goby survival generally declined with increasing density, and this decline was steeper for gobies with access to few refuges than for gobies in neighborhoods where refuges were common. The negative effects of high density and refuge shortage were also more severe for parasitized gobies than for gobies free of parasites. This parasite has characteristics typical of emerging diseases and appears to have altered the strength of a preexisting density-dependent interaction.

  16. The Effect of Phonotactic Probability and Neighbourhood Density on Pseudoword Learning in 6- and 7-Year-Old Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    van der Kleij, Sanne W.; Rispens, Judith E.; Scheper, Annette R.

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study was to examine the influence of phonotactic probability (PP) and neighbourhood density (ND) on pseudoword learning in 17 Dutch-speaking typically developing children (mean age 7;2). They were familiarized with 16 one-syllable pseudowords varying in PP (high vs low) and ND (high vs low) via a storytelling procedure. The…

  17. A very efficient approach to compute the first-passage probability density function in a time-changed Brownian model: Applications in finance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ballestra, Luca Vincenzo; Pacelli, Graziella; Radi, Davide

    2016-12-01

    We propose a numerical method to compute the first-passage probability density function in a time-changed Brownian model. In particular, we derive an integral representation of such a density function in which the integrand functions must be obtained solving a system of Volterra equations of the first kind. In addition, we develop an ad-hoc numerical procedure to regularize and solve this system of integral equations. The proposed method is tested on three application problems of interest in mathematical finance, namely the calculation of the survival probability of an indebted firm, the pricing of a single-knock-out put option and the pricing of a double-knock-out put option. The results obtained reveal that the novel approach is extremely accurate and fast, and performs significantly better than the finite difference method.

  18. Fast formation and growth of high-density Sn whiskers in Mg/Sn-based solder/Mg joints by ultrasonic-assisted soldering: Phenomena, mechanism and prevention.

    PubMed

    Li, M Y; Yang, H F; Zhang, Z H; Gu, J H; Yang, S H

    2016-06-08

    A universally applicable method for promoting the fast formation and growth of high-density Sn whiskers on solders was developed by fabricating Mg/Sn-based solder/Mg joints using ultrasonic-assisted soldering at 250 °C for 6 s and then subjected to thermal aging at 25 °C for 7 d. The results showed that the use of the ultrasonic-assisted soldering could produce the supersaturated dissolution of Mg in the liquid Sn and lead to the existence of two forms of Mg in Sn after solidification. Moreover, the formation and growth of the high-density whiskers were facilitated by the specific contributions of both of the Mg forms in the solid Sn. Specifically, interstitial Mg can provide the persistent driving force for Sn whisker growth, whereas the Mg2Sn phase can increase the formation probability of Sn whiskers. In addition, we presented that the formation and growth of Sn whiskers in the Sn-based solders can be significantly restricted by a small amount of Zn addition (≥3 wt.%), and the prevention mechanisms are attributed to the segregation of Zn atoms at grain or phase boundaries and the formation of the lamellar-type Zn-rich structures in the solder.

  19. Fast formation and growth of high-density Sn whiskers in Mg/Sn-based solder/Mg joints by ultrasonic-assisted soldering: Phenomena, mechanism and prevention

    PubMed Central

    Li, M. Y.; Yang, H. F.; Zhang, Z. H.; Gu, J. H.; Yang, S. H.

    2016-01-01

    A universally applicable method for promoting the fast formation and growth of high-density Sn whiskers on solders was developed by fabricating Mg/Sn-based solder/Mg joints using ultrasonic-assisted soldering at 250 °C for 6 s and then subjected to thermal aging at 25 °C for 7 d. The results showed that the use of the ultrasonic-assisted soldering could produce the supersaturated dissolution of Mg in the liquid Sn and lead to the existence of two forms of Mg in Sn after solidification. Moreover, the formation and growth of the high-density whiskers were facilitated by the specific contributions of both of the Mg forms in the solid Sn. Specifically, interstitial Mg can provide the persistent driving force for Sn whisker growth, whereas the Mg2Sn phase can increase the formation probability of Sn whiskers. In addition, we presented that the formation and growth of Sn whiskers in the Sn-based solders can be significantly restricted by a small amount of Zn addition (≥3 wt.%), and the prevention mechanisms are attributed to the segregation of Zn atoms at grain or phase boundaries and the formation of the lamellar-type Zn-rich structures in the solder. PMID:27273421

  20. Estimates of density, detection probability, and factors influencing detection of burrowing owls in the Mojave Desert

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Crowe, D.E.; Longshore, K.M.

    2010-01-01

    We estimated relative abundance and density of Western Burrowing Owls (Athene cunicularia hypugaea) at two sites in the Mojave Desert (200304). We made modifications to previously established Burrowing Owl survey techniques for use in desert shrublands and evaluated several factors that might influence the detection of owls. We tested the effectiveness of the call-broadcast technique for surveying this species, the efficiency of this technique at early and late breeding stages, and the effectiveness of various numbers of vocalization intervals during broadcasting sessions. Only 1 (3) of 31 initial (new) owl responses was detected during passive-listening sessions. We found that surveying early in the nesting season was more likely to produce new owl detections compared to surveying later in the nesting season. New owls detected during each of the three vocalization intervals (each consisting of 30 sec of vocalizations followed by 30 sec of silence) of our broadcasting session were similar (37, 40, and 23; n 30). We used a combination of detection trials (sighting probability) and double-observer method to estimate the components of detection probability, i.e., availability and perception. Availability for all sites and years, as determined by detection trials, ranged from 46.158.2. Relative abundance, measured as frequency of occurrence and defined as the proportion of surveys with at least one owl, ranged from 19.232.0 for both sites and years. Density at our eastern Mojave Desert site was estimated at 0.09 ?? 0.01 (SE) owl territories/km2 and 0.16 ?? 0.02 (SE) owl territories/km2 during 2003 and 2004, respectively. In our southern Mojave Desert site, density estimates were 0.09 ?? 0.02 (SE) owl territories/km2 and 0.08 ?? 0.02 (SE) owl territories/km 2 during 2004 and 2005, respectively. ?? 2010 The Raptor Research Foundation, Inc.

  1. Probability density function characterization for aggregated large-scale wind power based on Weibull mixtures

    DOE PAGES

    Gomez-Lazaro, Emilio; Bueso, Maria C.; Kessler, Mathieu; ...

    2016-02-02

    Here, the Weibull probability distribution has been widely applied to characterize wind speeds for wind energy resources. Wind power generation modeling is different, however, due in particular to power curve limitations, wind turbine control methods, and transmission system operation requirements. These differences are even greater for aggregated wind power generation in power systems with high wind penetration. Consequently, models based on one-Weibull component can provide poor characterizations for aggregated wind power generation. With this aim, the present paper focuses on discussing Weibull mixtures to characterize the probability density function (PDF) for aggregated wind power generation. PDFs of wind power datamore » are firstly classified attending to hourly and seasonal patterns. The selection of the number of components in the mixture is analyzed through two well-known different criteria: the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC). Finally, the optimal number of Weibull components for maximum likelihood is explored for the defined patterns, including the estimated weight, scale, and shape parameters. Results show that multi-Weibull models are more suitable to characterize aggregated wind power data due to the impact of distributed generation, variety of wind speed values and wind power curtailment.« less

  2. JDINAC: joint density-based non-parametric differential interaction network analysis and classification using high-dimensional sparse omics data.

    PubMed

    Ji, Jiadong; He, Di; Feng, Yang; He, Yong; Xue, Fuzhong; Xie, Lei

    2017-10-01

    A complex disease is usually driven by a number of genes interwoven into networks, rather than a single gene product. Network comparison or differential network analysis has become an important means of revealing the underlying mechanism of pathogenesis and identifying clinical biomarkers for disease classification. Most studies, however, are limited to network correlations that mainly capture the linear relationship among genes, or rely on the assumption of a parametric probability distribution of gene measurements. They are restrictive in real application. We propose a new Joint density based non-parametric Differential Interaction Network Analysis and Classification (JDINAC) method to identify differential interaction patterns of network activation between two groups. At the same time, JDINAC uses the network biomarkers to build a classification model. The novelty of JDINAC lies in its potential to capture non-linear relations between molecular interactions using high-dimensional sparse data as well as to adjust confounding factors, without the need of the assumption of a parametric probability distribution of gene measurements. Simulation studies demonstrate that JDINAC provides more accurate differential network estimation and lower classification error than that achieved by other state-of-the-art methods. We apply JDINAC to a Breast Invasive Carcinoma dataset, which includes 114 patients who have both tumor and matched normal samples. The hub genes and differential interaction patterns identified were consistent with existing experimental studies. Furthermore, JDINAC discriminated the tumor and normal sample with high accuracy by virtue of the identified biomarkers. JDINAC provides a general framework for feature selection and classification using high-dimensional sparse omics data. R scripts available at https://github.com/jijiadong/JDINAC. lxie@iscb.org. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author (2017). Published by Oxford

  3. Propensity, Probability, and Quantum Theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ballentine, Leslie E.

    2016-08-01

    Quantum mechanics and probability theory share one peculiarity. Both have well established mathematical formalisms, yet both are subject to controversy about the meaning and interpretation of their basic concepts. Since probability plays a fundamental role in QM, the conceptual problems of one theory can affect the other. We first classify the interpretations of probability into three major classes: (a) inferential probability, (b) ensemble probability, and (c) propensity. Class (a) is the basis of inductive logic; (b) deals with the frequencies of events in repeatable experiments; (c) describes a form of causality that is weaker than determinism. An important, but neglected, paper by P. Humphreys demonstrated that propensity must differ mathematically, as well as conceptually, from probability, but he did not develop a theory of propensity. Such a theory is developed in this paper. Propensity theory shares many, but not all, of the axioms of probability theory. As a consequence, propensity supports the Law of Large Numbers from probability theory, but does not support Bayes theorem. Although there are particular problems within QM to which any of the classes of probability may be applied, it is argued that the intrinsic quantum probabilities (calculated from a state vector or density matrix) are most naturally interpreted as quantum propensities. This does not alter the familiar statistical interpretation of QM. But the interpretation of quantum states as representing knowledge is untenable. Examples show that a density matrix fails to represent knowledge.

  4. Bivariate normal, conditional and rectangular probabilities: A computer program with applications

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Swaroop, R.; Brownlow, J. D.; Ashwworth, G. R.; Winter, W. R.

    1980-01-01

    Some results for the bivariate normal distribution analysis are presented. Computer programs for conditional normal probabilities, marginal probabilities, as well as joint probabilities for rectangular regions are given: routines for computing fractile points and distribution functions are also presented. Some examples from a closed circuit television experiment are included.

  5. Computing approximate random Delta v magnitude probability densities. [for spacecraft trajectory correction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chadwick, C.

    1984-01-01

    This paper describes the development and use of an algorithm to compute approximate statistics of the magnitude of a single random trajectory correction maneuver (TCM) Delta v vector. The TCM Delta v vector is modeled as a three component Cartesian vector each of whose components is a random variable having a normal (Gaussian) distribution with zero mean and possibly unequal standard deviations. The algorithm uses these standard deviations as input to produce approximations to (1) the mean and standard deviation of the magnitude of Delta v, (2) points of the probability density function of the magnitude of Delta v, and (3) points of the cumulative and inverse cumulative distribution functions of Delta v. The approximates are based on Monte Carlo techniques developed in a previous paper by the author and extended here. The algorithm described is expected to be useful in both pre-flight planning and in-flight analysis of maneuver propellant requirements for space missions.

  6. HMA Longitudinal Joint Evaluation and Construction

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2011-02-01

    Longitudinal joint quality is essential to the successful performance of asphalt pavements. A number of states have begun to implement longitudinal joint specifications, and most are based on determinations of density. However, distress at the joint ...

  7. Estimating loblolly pine size-density trajectories across a range of planting densities

    Treesearch

    Curtis L. VanderSchaaf; Harold E. Burkhart

    2013-01-01

    Size-density trajectories on the logarithmic (ln) scale are generally thought to consist of two major stages. The first is often referred to as the density-independent mortality stage where the probability of mortality is independent of stand density; in the second, often referred to as the density-dependent mortality or self-thinning stage, the probability of...

  8. Word Recognition and Nonword Repetition in Children with Language Disorders: The Effects of Neighborhood Density, Lexical Frequency, and Phonotactic Probability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rispens, Judith; Baker, Anne; Duinmeijer, Iris

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: The effects of neighborhood density (ND) and lexical frequency on word recognition and the effects of phonotactic probability (PP) on nonword repetition (NWR) were examined to gain insight into processing at the lexical and sublexical levels in typically developing (TD) children and children with developmental language problems. Method:…

  9. Continuous time random walk model with asymptotical probability density of waiting times via inverse Mittag-Leffler function

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liang, Yingjie; Chen, Wen

    2018-04-01

    The mean squared displacement (MSD) of the traditional ultraslow diffusion is a logarithmic function of time. Recently, the continuous time random walk model is employed to characterize this ultraslow diffusion dynamics by connecting the heavy-tailed logarithmic function and its variation as the asymptotical waiting time density. In this study we investigate the limiting waiting time density of a general ultraslow diffusion model via the inverse Mittag-Leffler function, whose special case includes the traditional logarithmic ultraslow diffusion model. The MSD of the general ultraslow diffusion model is analytically derived as an inverse Mittag-Leffler function, and is observed to increase even more slowly than that of the logarithmic function model. The occurrence of very long waiting time in the case of the inverse Mittag-Leffler function has the largest probability compared with the power law model and the logarithmic function model. The Monte Carlo simulations of one dimensional sample path of a single particle are also performed. The results show that the inverse Mittag-Leffler waiting time density is effective in depicting the general ultraslow random motion.

  10. Effect of Phonotactic Probability and Neighborhood Density on Word-Learning Configuration by Preschoolers with Typical Development and Specific Language Impairment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gray, Shelley; Pittman, Andrea; Weinhold, Juliet

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: In this study, the authors assessed the effects of phonotactic probability and neighborhood density on word-learning configuration by preschoolers with specific language impairment (SLI) and typical language development (TD). Method: One hundred thirty-one children participated: 48 with SLI, 44 with TD matched on age and gender, and 39…

  11. An investigation of student understanding of classical ideas related to quantum mechanics: Potential energy diagrams and spatial probability density

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stephanik, Brian Michael

    This dissertation describes the results of two related investigations into introductory student understanding of ideas from classical physics that are key elements of quantum mechanics. One investigation probes the extent to which students are able to interpret and apply potential energy diagrams (i.e., graphs of potential energy versus position). The other probes the extent to which students are able to reason classically about probability and spatial probability density. The results of these investigations revealed significant conceptual and reasoning difficulties that students encounter with these topics. The findings guided the design of instructional materials to address the major problems. Results from post-instructional assessments are presented that illustrate the impact of the curricula on student learning.

  12. Probability Density Functions of the Solar Wind Driver of the Magnetopshere-Ionosphere System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Horton, W.; Mays, M. L.

    2007-12-01

    The solar-wind driven magnetosphere-ionosphere system is a complex dynamical system in that it exhibits (1) sensitivity to initial conditions; (2) multiple space-time scales; (3) bifurcation sequences with hysteresis in transitions between attractors; and (4) noncompositionality. This system is modeled by WINDMI--a network of eight coupled ordinary differential equations which describe the transfer of power from the solar wind through the geomagnetic tail, the ionosphere, and ring current in the system. The model captures both storm activity from the plasma ring current energy, which yields a model Dst index result, and substorm activity from the region 1 field aligned current, yielding model AL and AU results. The input to the model is the solar wind driving voltage calculated from ACE solar wind parameter data, which has a regular coherent component and broad-band turbulent component. Cross correlation functions of the input-output data time series are computed and the conditional probability density function for the occurrence of substorms given earlier IMF conditions are derived. The model shows a high probability of substorms for solar activity that contains a coherent, rotating IMF with magnetic cloud features. For a theoretical model of the imprint of solar convection on the solar wind we have used the Lorenz attractor (Horton et al., PoP, 1999, doi:10.10631.873683) as a solar wind driver. The work is supported by NSF grant ATM-0638480.

  13. Quantum probability assignment limited by relativistic causality.

    PubMed

    Han, Yeong Deok; Choi, Taeseung

    2016-03-14

    Quantum theory has nonlocal correlations, which bothered Einstein, but found to satisfy relativistic causality. Correlation for a shared quantum state manifests itself, in the standard quantum framework, by joint probability distributions that can be obtained by applying state reduction and probability assignment that is called Born rule. Quantum correlations, which show nonlocality when the shared state has an entanglement, can be changed if we apply different probability assignment rule. As a result, the amount of nonlocality in quantum correlation will be changed. The issue is whether the change of the rule of quantum probability assignment breaks relativistic causality. We have shown that Born rule on quantum measurement is derived by requiring relativistic causality condition. This shows how the relativistic causality limits the upper bound of quantum nonlocality through quantum probability assignment.

  14. Salient in space, salient in time: Fixation probability predicts fixation duration during natural scene viewing.

    PubMed

    Einhäuser, Wolfgang; Nuthmann, Antje

    2016-09-01

    During natural scene viewing, humans typically attend and fixate selected locations for about 200-400 ms. Two variables characterize such "overt" attention: the probability of a location being fixated, and the fixation's duration. Both variables have been widely researched, but little is known about their relation. We use a two-step approach to investigate the relation between fixation probability and duration. In the first step, we use a large corpus of fixation data. We demonstrate that fixation probability (empirical salience) predicts fixation duration across different observers and tasks. Linear mixed-effects modeling shows that this relation is explained neither by joint dependencies on simple image features (luminance, contrast, edge density) nor by spatial biases (central bias). In the second step, we experimentally manipulate some of these features. We find that fixation probability from the corpus data still predicts fixation duration for this new set of experimental data. This holds even if stimuli are deprived of low-level images features, as long as higher level scene structure remains intact. Together, this shows a robust relation between fixation duration and probability, which does not depend on simple image features. Moreover, the study exemplifies the combination of empirical research on a large corpus of data with targeted experimental manipulations.

  15. Accelerated hand bone mineral density loss is associated with progressive joint damage in hands and feet in recent-onset rheumatoid arthritis.

    PubMed

    Güler-Yüksel, Melek; Klarenbeek, Naomi B; Goekoop-Ruiterman, Yvonne P M; de Vries-Bouwstra, Jeska K; van der Kooij, Sjoerd M; Gerards, Andreas H; Ronday, H Karel; Huizinga, Tom W J; Dijkmans, Ben A C; Allaart, Cornelia F; Lems, Willem F

    2010-01-01

    To investigate whether accelerated hand bone mineral density (BMD) loss is associated with progressive joint damage in hands and feet in the first year of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and whether it is an independent predictor of subsequent progressive total joint damage after 4 years. In 256 recent-onset RA patients, baseline and 1-year hand BMD was measured in metacarpals 2-4 by digital X-ray radiogrammetry. Joint damage in hands and feet were scored in random order according to the Sharp-van der Heijde method at baseline and yearly up to 4 years. 68% of the patients had accelerated hand BMD loss (>-0.003 g/cm2) in the first year of RA. Hand BMD loss was associated with progressive joint damage after 1 year both in hands and feet with odds ratios (OR) (95% confidence intervals [CI]) of 5.3 (1.3-20.9) and 3.1 (1.0-9.7). In univariate analysis, hand BMD loss in the first year was a predictor of subsequent progressive total joint damage after 4 years with an OR (95% CI) of 3.1 (1.3-7.6). Multivariate analysis showed that only progressive joint damage in the first year and anti-citrullinated protein antibody positivity were independent predictors of long-term progressive joint damage. In the first year of RA, accelerated hand BMD loss is associated with progressive joint damage in both hands and feet. Hand BMD loss in the first year of recent-onset RA predicts subsequent progressive total joint damage, however not independent of progressive joint damage in the first year.

  16. LES/PDF studies of joint statistics of mixture fraction and progress variable in piloted methane jet flames with inhomogeneous inlet flows

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Pei; Barlow, Robert; Masri, Assaad; Wang, Haifeng

    2016-11-01

    The mixture fraction and progress variable are often used as independent variables for describing turbulent premixed and non-premixed flames. There is a growing interest in using these two variables for describing partially premixed flames. The joint statistical distribution of the mixture fraction and progress variable is of great interest in developing models for partially premixed flames. In this work, we conduct predictive studies of the joint statistics of mixture fraction and progress variable in a series of piloted methane jet flames with inhomogeneous inlet flows. The employed models combine large eddy simulations with the Monte Carlo probability density function (PDF) method. The joint PDFs and marginal PDFs are examined in detail by comparing the model predictions and the measurements. Different presumed shapes of the joint PDFs are also evaluated.

  17. Existence, uniqueness and regularity of a time-periodic probability density distribution arising in a sedimentation-diffusion problem

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nitsche, Ludwig C.; Nitsche, Johannes M.; Brenner, Howard

    1988-01-01

    The sedimentation and diffusion of a nonneutrally buoyant Brownian particle in vertical fluid-filled cylinder of finite length which is instantaneously inverted at regular intervals are investigated analytically. A one-dimensional convective-diffusive equation is derived to describe the temporal and spatial evolution of the probability density; a periodicity condition is formulated; the applicability of Fredholm theory is established; and the parameter-space regions are determined within which the existence and uniqueness of solutions are guaranteed. Numerical results for sample problems are presented graphically and briefly characterized.

  18. Guide star probabilities

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Soneira, R. M.; Bahcall, J. N.

    1981-01-01

    Probabilities are calculated for acquiring suitable guide stars (GS) with the fine guidance system (FGS) of the space telescope. A number of the considerations and techniques described are also relevant for other space astronomy missions. The constraints of the FGS are reviewed. The available data on bright star densities are summarized and a previous error in the literature is corrected. Separate analytic and Monte Carlo calculations of the probabilities are described. A simulation of space telescope pointing is carried out using the Weistrop north galactic pole catalog of bright stars. Sufficient information is presented so that the probabilities of acquisition can be estimated as a function of position in the sky. The probability of acquiring suitable guide stars is greatly increased if the FGS can allow an appreciable difference between the (bright) primary GS limiting magnitude and the (fainter) secondary GS limiting magnitude.

  19. Joint-inversion of gravity data and cosmic ray muon flux to detect shallow subsurface density structure beneath volcanoes: Testing the method at a well-characterized site

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roy, M.; Lewis, M.; George, N. K.; Johnson, A.; Dichter, M.; Rowe, C. A.; Guardincerri, E.

    2016-12-01

    The joint-inversion of gravity data and cosmic ray muon flux measurements has been utilized by a number of groups to image subsurface density structure in a variety of settings, including volcanic edifices. Cosmic ray muons are variably-attenuated depending upon the density structure of the material they traverse, so measuring muon flux through a region of interest provides an independent constraint on the density structure. Previous theoretical studies have argued that the primary advantage of combining gravity and muon data is enhanced resolution in regions not sampled by crossing muon trajectories, e.g. in sensing deeper structure or structure adjacent to the region sampled by muons. We test these ideas by investigating the ability of gravity data alone and the joint-inversion of gravity and muon flux to image subsurface density structure, including voids, in a well-characterized field location. Our study area is a tunnel vault located at the Los Alamos National Laboratory within Quaternary ash-flow tuffs on the Pajarito Plateau, flanking the Jemez Volcano in New Mexico. The regional geology of the area is well-characterized (with density measurements in nearby wells) and the geometry of the tunnel and the surrounding terrain is known. Gravity measurements were made using a Lacoste and Romberg D meter and the muon detector has a conical acceptance region of 45 degrees from the vertical and track resolution of several milliradians. We obtain individual and joint resolution kernels for gravity and muon flux specific to our experimental design and plan to combine measurements of gravity and muon flux both within and above the tunnel to infer density structure. We plan to compare our inferred density structure against the expected densities from the known regional hydro-geologic framework.

  20. Cosmological constraints from the convergence 1-point probability distribution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Patton, Kenneth; Blazek, Jonathan; Honscheid, Klaus; Huff, Eric; Melchior, Peter; Ross, Ashley J.; Suchyta, Eric

    2017-11-01

    We examine the cosmological information available from the 1-point probability density function (PDF) of the weak-lensing convergence field, utilizing fast L-PICOLA simulations and a Fisher analysis. We find competitive constraints in the Ωm-σ8 plane from the convergence PDF with 188 arcmin2 pixels compared to the cosmic shear power spectrum with an equivalent number of modes (ℓ < 886). The convergence PDF also partially breaks the degeneracy cosmic shear exhibits in that parameter space. A joint analysis of the convergence PDF and shear 2-point function also reduces the impact of shape measurement systematics, to which the PDF is less susceptible, and improves the total figure of merit by a factor of 2-3, depending on the level of systematics. Finally, we present a correction factor necessary for calculating the unbiased Fisher information from finite differences using a limited number of cosmological simulations.

  1. Robust functional statistics applied to Probability Density Function shape screening of sEMG data.

    PubMed

    Boudaoud, S; Rix, H; Al Harrach, M; Marin, F

    2014-01-01

    Recent studies pointed out possible shape modifications of the Probability Density Function (PDF) of surface electromyographical (sEMG) data according to several contexts like fatigue and muscle force increase. Following this idea, criteria have been proposed to monitor these shape modifications mainly using High Order Statistics (HOS) parameters like skewness and kurtosis. In experimental conditions, these parameters are confronted with small sample size in the estimation process. This small sample size induces errors in the estimated HOS parameters restraining real-time and precise sEMG PDF shape monitoring. Recently, a functional formalism, the Core Shape Model (CSM), has been used to analyse shape modifications of PDF curves. In this work, taking inspiration from CSM method, robust functional statistics are proposed to emulate both skewness and kurtosis behaviors. These functional statistics combine both kernel density estimation and PDF shape distances to evaluate shape modifications even in presence of small sample size. Then, the proposed statistics are tested, using Monte Carlo simulations, on both normal and Log-normal PDFs that mimic observed sEMG PDF shape behavior during muscle contraction. According to the obtained results, the functional statistics seem to be more robust than HOS parameters to small sample size effect and more accurate in sEMG PDF shape screening applications.

  2. Experimental determination of spin-dependent electron density by joint refinement of X-ray and polarized neutron diffraction data.

    PubMed

    Deutsch, Maxime; Claiser, Nicolas; Pillet, Sébastien; Chumakov, Yurii; Becker, Pierre; Gillet, Jean Michel; Gillon, Béatrice; Lecomte, Claude; Souhassou, Mohamed

    2012-11-01

    New crystallographic tools were developed to access a more precise description of the spin-dependent electron density of magnetic crystals. The method combines experimental information coming from high-resolution X-ray diffraction (XRD) and polarized neutron diffraction (PND) in a unified model. A new algorithm that allows for a simultaneous refinement of the charge- and spin-density parameters against XRD and PND data is described. The resulting software MOLLYNX is based on the well known Hansen-Coppens multipolar model, and makes it possible to differentiate the electron spins. This algorithm is validated and demonstrated with a molecular crystal formed by a bimetallic chain, MnCu(pba)(H(2)O)(3)·2H(2)O, for which XRD and PND data are available. The joint refinement provides a more detailed description of the spin density than the refinement from PND data alone.

  3. Stability of mechanical joints in launching vehicles: Local and global stationary values of energy density

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chue, Ching-Hwei

    A method was developed for predicting the behavior of mechanical joints in launch vehicles with particular emphasis placed on how the combined effects of loading, geometry, and materials could be optimized in terms of structure instability and/or integrity. What was considered to be essential is the fluctuation of the volume energy density with time in the structure. The peaks and valleys of the volume energy density function will be associated with failure by fracture and/or yielding while the distance between their local and global stationary values govern the structure instability. The Solid Rocket Booster (SRB) of the space shuttle was analyzed under axisymmetric and non-axisymmetric loadings. A semi-analytical finite element program was developed for solving the case of non-axisymmetric loading. Following a dynamic stress analysis, contours of the volume energy density in the structure were obtained as a function of time. The magnitudes and locations of these stationary values were then calculated locally and globally and related to possible failure by fracture. In the case of axisymmetric flight, the local and global instability behavior do not change appreciably. Fluctuations in the energy density and the dynamic stability length parameter become appreciable when the non-axisymmetric loads are considered. The magnitude of the energy in the shell structure is sensitive to alterations in the gas pressure induced by the solid propellant.

  4. Independent Events in Elementary Probability Theory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Csenki, Attila

    2011-01-01

    In Probability and Statistics taught to mathematicians as a first introduction or to a non-mathematical audience, joint independence of events is introduced by requiring that the multiplication rule is satisfied. The following statement is usually tacitly assumed to hold (and, at best, intuitively motivated): If the n events E[subscript 1],…

  5. Switching probability of all-perpendicular spin valve nanopillars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tzoufras, M.

    2018-05-01

    In all-perpendicular spin valve nanopillars the probability density of the free-layer magnetization is independent of the azimuthal angle and its evolution equation simplifies considerably compared to the general, nonaxisymmetric geometry. Expansion of the time-dependent probability density to Legendre polynomials enables analytical integration of the evolution equation and yields a compact expression for the practically relevant switching probability. This approach is valid when the free layer behaves as a single-domain magnetic particle and it can be readily applied to fitting experimental data.

  6. Effect of Non-speckle Echo Signals on Tissue Characteristics for Liver Fibrosis using Probability Density Function of Ultrasonic B-mode image

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mori, Shohei; Hirata, Shinnosuke; Yamaguchi, Tadashi; Hachiya, Hiroyuki

    To develop a quantitative diagnostic method for liver fibrosis using an ultrasound B-mode image, a probability imaging method of tissue characteristics based on a multi-Rayleigh model, which expresses a probability density function of echo signals from liver fibrosis, has been proposed. In this paper, an effect of non-speckle echo signals on tissue characteristics estimated from the multi-Rayleigh model was evaluated. Non-speckle signals were determined and removed using the modeling error of the multi-Rayleigh model. The correct tissue characteristics of fibrotic tissue could be estimated with the removal of non-speckle signals.

  7. Evolution of probability densities in stochastic coupled map lattices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Losson, Jérôme; Mackey, Michael C.

    1995-08-01

    This paper describes the statistical properties of coupled map lattices subjected to the influence of stochastic perturbations. The stochastic analog of the Perron-Frobenius operator is derived for various types of noise. When the local dynamics satisfy rather mild conditions, this equation is shown to possess either stable, steady state solutions (i.e., a stable invariant density) or density limit cycles. Convergence of the phase space densities to these limit cycle solutions explains the nonstationary behavior of statistical quantifiers at equilibrium. Numerical experiments performed on various lattices of tent, logistic, and shift maps with diffusivelike interelement couplings are examined in light of these theoretical results.

  8. Optimizing probability of detection point estimate demonstration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koshti, Ajay M.

    2017-04-01

    The paper provides discussion on optimizing probability of detection (POD) demonstration experiments using point estimate method. The optimization is performed to provide acceptable value for probability of passing demonstration (PPD) and achieving acceptable value for probability of false (POF) calls while keeping the flaw sizes in the set as small as possible. POD Point estimate method is used by NASA for qualifying special NDE procedures. The point estimate method uses binomial distribution for probability density. Normally, a set of 29 flaws of same size within some tolerance are used in the demonstration. Traditionally largest flaw size in the set is considered to be a conservative estimate of the flaw size with minimum 90% probability and 95% confidence. The flaw size is denoted as α90/95PE. The paper investigates relationship between range of flaw sizes in relation to α90, i.e. 90% probability flaw size, to provide a desired PPD. The range of flaw sizes is expressed as a proportion of the standard deviation of the probability density distribution. Difference between median or average of the 29 flaws and α90 is also expressed as a proportion of standard deviation of the probability density distribution. In general, it is concluded that, if probability of detection increases with flaw size, average of 29 flaw sizes would always be larger than or equal to α90 and is an acceptable measure of α90/95PE. If NDE technique has sufficient sensitivity and signal-to-noise ratio, then the 29 flaw-set can be optimized to meet requirements of minimum required PPD, maximum allowable POF, requirements on flaw size tolerance about mean flaw size and flaw size detectability requirements. The paper provides procedure for optimizing flaw sizes in the point estimate demonstration flaw-set.

  9. Cosmological constraints from the convergence 1-point probability distribution

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Patton, Kenneth; Blazek, Jonathan; Honscheid, Klaus

    2017-06-29

    Here, we examine the cosmological information available from the 1-point probability density function (PDF) of the weak-lensing convergence field, utilizing fast l-picola simulations and a Fisher analysis. We find competitive constraints in the Ωm–σ8 plane from the convergence PDF with 188 arcmin 2 pixels compared to the cosmic shear power spectrum with an equivalent number of modes (ℓ < 886). The convergence PDF also partially breaks the degeneracy cosmic shear exhibits in that parameter space. A joint analysis of the convergence PDF and shear 2-point function also reduces the impact of shape measurement systematics, to which the PDF is lessmore » susceptible, and improves the total figure of merit by a factor of 2–3, depending on the level of systematics. Finally, we present a correction factor necessary for calculating the unbiased Fisher information from finite differences using a limited number of cosmological simulations.« less

  10. Laboratory-Tutorial Activities for Teaching Probability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wittmann, Michael C.; Morgan, Jeffrey T.; Feeley, Roger E.

    2006-01-01

    We report on the development of students' ideas of probability and probability density in a University of Maine laboratory-based general education physics course called "Intuitive Quantum Physics". Students in the course are generally math phobic with unfavorable expectations about the nature of physics and their ability to do it. We…

  11. Univariate Probability Distributions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Leemis, Lawrence M.; Luckett, Daniel J.; Powell, Austin G.; Vermeer, Peter E.

    2012-01-01

    We describe a web-based interactive graphic that can be used as a resource in introductory classes in mathematical statistics. This interactive graphic presents 76 common univariate distributions and gives details on (a) various features of the distribution such as the functional form of the probability density function and cumulative distribution…

  12. EUPDF: Eulerian Monte Carlo Probability Density Function Solver for Applications With Parallel Computing, Unstructured Grids, and Sprays

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Raju, M. S.

    1998-01-01

    The success of any solution methodology used in the study of gas-turbine combustor flows depends a great deal on how well it can model the various complex and rate controlling processes associated with the spray's turbulent transport, mixing, chemical kinetics, evaporation, and spreading rates, as well as convective and radiative heat transfer and other phenomena. The phenomena to be modeled, which are controlled by these processes, often strongly interact with each other at different times and locations. In particular, turbulence plays an important role in determining the rates of mass and heat transfer, chemical reactions, and evaporation in many practical combustion devices. The influence of turbulence in a diffusion flame manifests itself in several forms, ranging from the so-called wrinkled, or stretched, flamelets regime to the distributed combustion regime, depending upon how turbulence interacts with various flame scales. Conventional turbulence models have difficulty treating highly nonlinear reaction rates. A solution procedure based on the composition joint probability density function (PDF) approach holds the promise of modeling various important combustion phenomena relevant to practical combustion devices (such as extinction, blowoff limits, and emissions predictions) because it can account for nonlinear chemical reaction rates without making approximations. In an attempt to advance the state-of-the-art in multidimensional numerical methods, we at the NASA Lewis Research Center extended our previous work on the PDF method to unstructured grids, parallel computing, and sprays. EUPDF, which was developed by M.S. Raju of Nyma, Inc., was designed to be massively parallel and could easily be coupled with any existing gas-phase and/or spray solvers. EUPDF can use an unstructured mesh with mixed triangular, quadrilateral, and/or tetrahedral elements. The application of the PDF method showed favorable results when applied to several supersonic

  13. Representation of layer-counted proxy records as probability densities on error-free time axes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boers, Niklas; Goswami, Bedartha; Ghil, Michael

    2016-04-01

    Time series derived from paleoclimatic proxy records exhibit substantial dating uncertainties in addition to the measurement errors of the proxy values. For radiometrically dated proxy archives, Goswami et al. [1] have recently introduced a framework rooted in Bayesian statistics that successfully propagates the dating uncertainties from the time axis to the proxy axis. The resulting proxy record consists of a sequence of probability densities over the proxy values, conditioned on prescribed age values. One of the major benefits of this approach is that the proxy record is represented on an accurate, error-free time axis. Such unambiguous dating is crucial, for instance, in comparing different proxy records. This approach, however, is not directly applicable to proxy records with layer-counted chronologies, as for example ice cores, which are typically dated by counting quasi-annually deposited ice layers. Hence the nature of the chronological uncertainty in such records is fundamentally different from that in radiometrically dated ones. Here, we introduce a modification of the Goswami et al. [1] approach that is specifically designed for layer-counted proxy records, instead of radiometrically dated ones. We apply our method to isotope ratios and dust concentrations in the NGRIP core, using a published 60,000-year chronology [2]. It is shown that the further one goes into the past, the more the layer-counting errors accumulate and lead to growing uncertainties in the probability density sequence for the proxy values that results from the proposed approach. For the older parts of the record, these uncertainties affect more and more a statistically sound estimation of proxy values. This difficulty implies that great care has to be exercised when comparing and in particular aligning specific events among different layer-counted proxy records. On the other hand, when attempting to derive stochastic dynamical models from the proxy records, one is only interested in the

  14. Joint refinement model for the spin resolved one-electron reduced density matrix of YTiO3 using magnetic structure factors and magnetic Compton profiles data.

    PubMed

    Gueddida, Saber; Yan, Zeyin; Kibalin, Iurii; Voufack, Ariste Bolivard; Claiser, Nicolas; Souhassou, Mohamed; Lecomte, Claude; Gillon, Béatrice; Gillet, Jean-Michel

    2018-04-28

    In this paper, we propose a simple cluster model with limited basis sets to reproduce the unpaired electron distributions in a YTiO 3 ferromagnetic crystal. The spin-resolved one-electron-reduced density matrix is reconstructed simultaneously from theoretical magnetic structure factors and directional magnetic Compton profiles using our joint refinement algorithm. This algorithm is guided by the rescaling of basis functions and the adjustment of the spin population matrix. The resulting spin electron density in both position and momentum spaces from the joint refinement model is in agreement with theoretical and experimental results. Benefits brought from magnetic Compton profiles to the entire spin density matrix are illustrated. We studied the magnetic properties of the YTiO 3 crystal along the Ti-O 1 -Ti bonding. We found that the basis functions are mostly rescaled by means of magnetic Compton profiles, while the molecular occupation numbers are mainly modified by the magnetic structure factors.

  15. A probability space for quantum models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lemmens, L. F.

    2017-06-01

    A probability space contains a set of outcomes, a collection of events formed by subsets of the set of outcomes and probabilities defined for all events. A reformulation in terms of propositions allows to use the maximum entropy method to assign the probabilities taking some constraints into account. The construction of a probability space for quantum models is determined by the choice of propositions, choosing the constraints and making the probability assignment by the maximum entropy method. This approach shows, how typical quantum distributions such as Maxwell-Boltzmann, Fermi-Dirac and Bose-Einstein are partly related with well-known classical distributions. The relation between the conditional probability density, given some averages as constraints and the appropriate ensemble is elucidated.

  16. Subchondral bone density distribution of the talus in clinically normal Labrador Retrievers.

    PubMed

    Dingemanse, W; Müller-Gerbl, M; Jonkers, I; Vander Sloten, J; van Bree, H; Gielen, I

    2016-03-15

    Bones continually adapt their morphology to their load bearing function. At the level of the subchondral bone, the density distribution is highly correlated with the loading distribution of the joint. Therefore, subchondral bone density distribution can be used to study joint biomechanics non-invasively. In addition physiological and pathological joint loading is an important aspect of orthopaedic disease, and research focusing on joint biomechanics will benefit veterinary orthopaedics. This study was conducted to evaluate density distribution in the subchondral bone of the canine talus, as a parameter reflecting the long-term joint loading in the tarsocrural joint. Two main density maxima were found, one proximally on the medial trochlear ridge and one distally on the lateral trochlear ridge. All joints showed very similar density distribution patterns and no significant differences were found in the localisation of the density maxima between left and right limbs and between dogs. Based on the density distribution the lateral trochlear ridge is most likely subjected to highest loads within the tarsocrural joint. The joint loading distribution is very similar between dogs of the same breed. In addition, the joint loading distribution supports previous suggestions of the important role of biomechanics in the development of OC lesions in the tarsus. Important benefits of computed tomographic osteoabsorptiometry (CTOAM), i.e. the possibility of in vivo imaging and temporal evaluation, make this technique a valuable addition to the field of veterinary orthopaedic research.

  17. Multivariate quantile mapping bias correction: an N-dimensional probability density function transform for climate model simulations of multiple variables

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cannon, Alex J.

    2018-01-01

    Most bias correction algorithms used in climatology, for example quantile mapping, are applied to univariate time series. They neglect the dependence between different variables. Those that are multivariate often correct only limited measures of joint dependence, such as Pearson or Spearman rank correlation. Here, an image processing technique designed to transfer colour information from one image to another—the N-dimensional probability density function transform—is adapted for use as a multivariate bias correction algorithm (MBCn) for climate model projections/predictions of multiple climate variables. MBCn is a multivariate generalization of quantile mapping that transfers all aspects of an observed continuous multivariate distribution to the corresponding multivariate distribution of variables from a climate model. When applied to climate model projections, changes in quantiles of each variable between the historical and projection period are also preserved. The MBCn algorithm is demonstrated on three case studies. First, the method is applied to an image processing example with characteristics that mimic a climate projection problem. Second, MBCn is used to correct a suite of 3-hourly surface meteorological variables from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis Regional Climate Model (CanRCM4) across a North American domain. Components of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System, a complicated set of multivariate indices that characterizes the risk of wildfire, are then calculated and verified against observed values. Third, MBCn is used to correct biases in the spatial dependence structure of CanRCM4 precipitation fields. Results are compared against a univariate quantile mapping algorithm, which neglects the dependence between variables, and two multivariate bias correction algorithms, each of which corrects a different form of inter-variable correlation structure. MBCn outperforms these alternatives, often by a large margin

  18. The perception of probability.

    PubMed

    Gallistel, C R; Krishan, Monika; Liu, Ye; Miller, Reilly; Latham, Peter E

    2014-01-01

    We present a computational model to explain the results from experiments in which subjects estimate the hidden probability parameter of a stepwise nonstationary Bernoulli process outcome by outcome. The model captures the following results qualitatively and quantitatively, with only 2 free parameters: (a) Subjects do not update their estimate after each outcome; they step from one estimate to another at irregular intervals. (b) The joint distribution of step widths and heights cannot be explained on the assumption that a threshold amount of change must be exceeded in order for them to indicate a change in their perception. (c) The mapping of observed probability to the median perceived probability is the identity function over the full range of probabilities. (d) Precision (how close estimates are to the best possible estimate) is good and constant over the full range. (e) Subjects quickly detect substantial changes in the hidden probability parameter. (f) The perceived probability sometimes changes dramatically from one observation to the next. (g) Subjects sometimes have second thoughts about a previous change perception, after observing further outcomes. (h) The frequency with which they perceive changes moves in the direction of the true frequency over sessions. (Explaining this finding requires 2 additional parametric assumptions.) The model treats the perception of the current probability as a by-product of the construction of a compact encoding of the experienced sequence in terms of its change points. It illustrates the why and the how of intermittent Bayesian belief updating and retrospective revision in simple perception. It suggests a reinterpretation of findings in the recent literature on the neurobiology of decision making. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved).

  19. Correlation of quantitative computed tomographic subchondral bone density and ash density in horses.

    PubMed

    Drum, M G; Les, C M; Park, R D; Norrdin, R W; McIlwraith, C W; Kawcak, C E

    2009-02-01

    The purpose of this study was to compare subchondral bone density obtained using quantitative computed tomography with ash density values from intact equine joints, and to determine if there are measurable anatomic variations in mean subchondral bone density. Five adult equine metacarpophalangeal joints were scanned with computed tomography (CT), disarticulated, and four 1-cm(3) regions of interest (ROI) cut from the distal third metacarpal bone. Bone cubes were ashed, and percent mineralization and ash density were recorded. Three-dimensional models were created of the distal third metacarpal bone from CT images. Four ROIs were measured on the distal aspect of the third metacarpal bone at axial and abaxial sites of the medial and lateral condyles for correlation with ash samples. Overall correlations of mean quantitative CT (QCT) density with ash density (r=0.82) and percent mineralization (r=0.93) were strong. There were significant differences between abaxial and axial ROIs for mean QCT density, percent bone mineralization and ash density (p<0.05). QCT appears to be a good measure of bone density in equine subchondral bone. Additionally, differences existed between axial and abaxial subchondral bone density in the equine distal third metacarpal bone.

  20. Probability distribution of haplotype frequencies under the two-locus Wright-Fisher model by diffusion approximation.

    PubMed

    Boitard, Simon; Loisel, Patrice

    2007-05-01

    The probability distribution of haplotype frequencies in a population, and the way it is influenced by genetical forces such as recombination, selection, random drift ...is a question of fundamental interest in population genetics. For large populations, the distribution of haplotype frequencies for two linked loci under the classical Wright-Fisher model is almost impossible to compute because of numerical reasons. However the Wright-Fisher process can in such cases be approximated by a diffusion process and the transition density can then be deduced from the Kolmogorov equations. As no exact solution has been found for these equations, we developed a numerical method based on finite differences to solve them. It applies to transient states and models including selection or mutations. We show by several tests that this method is accurate for computing the conditional joint density of haplotype frequencies given that no haplotype has been lost. We also prove that it is far less time consuming than other methods such as Monte Carlo simulations.

  1. Joint-layer encoder optimization for HEVC scalable extensions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsai, Chia-Ming; He, Yuwen; Dong, Jie; Ye, Yan; Xiu, Xiaoyu; He, Yong

    2014-09-01

    Scalable video coding provides an efficient solution to support video playback on heterogeneous devices with various channel conditions in heterogeneous networks. SHVC is the latest scalable video coding standard based on the HEVC standard. To improve enhancement layer coding efficiency, inter-layer prediction including texture and motion information generated from the base layer is used for enhancement layer coding. However, the overall performance of the SHVC reference encoder is not fully optimized because rate-distortion optimization (RDO) processes in the base and enhancement layers are independently considered. It is difficult to directly extend the existing joint-layer optimization methods to SHVC due to the complicated coding tree block splitting decisions and in-loop filtering process (e.g., deblocking and sample adaptive offset (SAO) filtering) in HEVC. To solve those problems, a joint-layer optimization method is proposed by adjusting the quantization parameter (QP) to optimally allocate the bit resource between layers. Furthermore, to make more proper resource allocation, the proposed method also considers the viewing probability of base and enhancement layers according to packet loss rate. Based on the viewing probability, a novel joint-layer RD cost function is proposed for joint-layer RDO encoding. The QP values of those coding tree units (CTUs) belonging to lower layers referenced by higher layers are decreased accordingly, and the QP values of those remaining CTUs are increased to keep total bits unchanged. Finally the QP values with minimal joint-layer RD cost are selected to match the viewing probability. The proposed method was applied to the third temporal level (TL-3) pictures in the Random Access configuration. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed joint-layer optimization method can improve coding performance by 1.3% for these TL-3 pictures compared to the SHVC reference encoder without joint-layer optimization.

  2. Representation of Probability Density Functions from Orbit Determination using the Particle Filter

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mashiku, Alinda K.; Garrison, James; Carpenter, J. Russell

    2012-01-01

    Statistical orbit determination enables us to obtain estimates of the state and the statistical information of its region of uncertainty. In order to obtain an accurate representation of the probability density function (PDF) that incorporates higher order statistical information, we propose the use of nonlinear estimation methods such as the Particle Filter. The Particle Filter (PF) is capable of providing a PDF representation of the state estimates whose accuracy is dependent on the number of particles or samples used. For this method to be applicable to real case scenarios, we need a way of accurately representing the PDF in a compressed manner with little information loss. Hence we propose using the Independent Component Analysis (ICA) as a non-Gaussian dimensional reduction method that is capable of maintaining higher order statistical information obtained using the PF. Methods such as the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) are based on utilizing up to second order statistics, hence will not suffice in maintaining maximum information content. Both the PCA and the ICA are applied to two scenarios that involve a highly eccentric orbit with a lower apriori uncertainty covariance and a less eccentric orbit with a higher a priori uncertainty covariance, to illustrate the capability of the ICA in relation to the PCA.

  3. General Exact Solution to the Problem of the Probability Density for Sums of Random Variables

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tribelsky, Michael I.

    2002-07-01

    The exact explicit expression for the probability density pN(x) for a sum of N random, arbitrary correlated summands is obtained. The expression is valid for any number N and any distribution of the random summands. Most attention is paid to application of the developed approach to the case of independent and identically distributed summands. The obtained results reproduce all known exact solutions valid for the, so called, stable distributions of the summands. It is also shown that if the distribution is not stable, the profile of pN(x) may be divided into three parts, namely a core (small x), a tail (large x), and a crossover from the core to the tail (moderate x). The quantitative description of all three parts as well as that for the entire profile is obtained. A number of particular examples are considered in detail.

  4. General exact solution to the problem of the probability density for sums of random variables.

    PubMed

    Tribelsky, Michael I

    2002-08-12

    The exact explicit expression for the probability density p(N)(x) for a sum of N random, arbitrary correlated summands is obtained. The expression is valid for any number N and any distribution of the random summands. Most attention is paid to application of the developed approach to the case of independent and identically distributed summands. The obtained results reproduce all known exact solutions valid for the, so called, stable distributions of the summands. It is also shown that if the distribution is not stable, the profile of p(N)(x) may be divided into three parts, namely a core (small x), a tail (large x), and a crossover from the core to the tail (moderate x). The quantitative description of all three parts as well as that for the entire profile is obtained. A number of particular examples are considered in detail.

  5. Electrofishing capture probability of smallmouth bass in streams

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dauwalter, D.C.; Fisher, W.L.

    2007-01-01

    Abundance estimation is an integral part of understanding the ecology and advancing the management of fish populations and communities. Mark-recapture and removal methods are commonly used to estimate the abundance of stream fishes. Alternatively, abundance can be estimated by dividing the number of individuals sampled by the probability of capture. We conducted a mark-recapture study and used multiple repeated-measures logistic regression to determine the influence of fish size, sampling procedures, and stream habitat variables on the cumulative capture probability for smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu in two eastern Oklahoma streams. The predicted capture probability was used to adjust the number of individuals sampled to obtain abundance estimates. The observed capture probabilities were higher for larger fish and decreased with successive electrofishing passes for larger fish only. Model selection suggested that the number of electrofishing passes, fish length, and mean thalweg depth affected capture probabilities the most; there was little evidence for any effect of electrofishing power density and woody debris density on capture probability. Leave-one-out cross validation showed that the cumulative capture probability model predicts smallmouth abundance accurately. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2007.

  6. Probability of spacesuit-induced fingernail trauma is associated with hand circumference.

    PubMed

    Opperman, Roedolph A; Waldie, James M A; Natapoff, Alan; Newman, Dava J; Jones, Jeffrey A

    2010-10-01

    A significant number of astronauts sustain hand injuries during extravehicular activity training and operations. These hand injuries have been known to cause fingernail delamination (onycholysis) that requires medical intervention. This study investigated correlations between the anthropometrics of the hand and susceptibility to injury. The analysis explored the hypothesis that crewmembers with a high finger-to-hand size ratio are more likely to experience injuries. A database of 232 crewmembers' injury records and anthropometrics was sourced from NASA Johnson Space Center. No significant effect of finger-to-hand size was found on the probability of injury, but circumference and width of the metacarpophalangeal (MCP) joint were found to be significantly associated with injuries by the Kruskal-Wallis test. A multivariate logistic regression showed that hand circumference is the dominant effect on the likelihood of onycholysis. Male crewmembers with a hand circumference > 22.86 cm (9") have a 19.6% probability of finger injury, but those with hand circumferences < or = 22.86 cm (9") only have a 5.6% chance of injury. Findings were similar for female crewmembers. This increased probability may be due to constriction at large MCP joints by the current NASA Phase VI glove. Constriction may lead to occlusion of vascular flow to the fingers that may increase the chances of onycholysis. Injury rates are lower on gloves such as the superseded series 4000 and the Russian Orlan that provide more volume for the MCP joint. This suggests that we can reduce onycholysis by modifying the design of the current gloves at the MCP joint.

  7. Understanding the pseudocapacitance of RuO2 from joint density functional theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhan, Cheng; Jiang, De-en

    2016-11-01

    Pseudocapacitors have been experimentally studied for many years in electric energy storage. However, first principles understanding of the pseudocapacitive behavior is still not satisfactory due to the complexity involved in modeling electrochemistry. In this paper, we applied joint density functional theory (JDFT) to simulate the pseudocapacitive behavior of RuO2, a prototypical material, in a model electrolyte. We obtained from JDFT a capacitive curve which showed a redox peak position comparable to that in the experimental cyclic voltammetry (CV) curve. We found that the experimental turning point from double-layer to pseudocapacitive charge storage at low scan rates could be explained by the hydrogen adsorption at low coverage. As the electrode voltage becomes more negative, H coverage increases and causes the surface-structure change, leading to bended -OH bonds at the on-top oxygen atoms and large capacitance. This H coverage-dependent capacitance can explain the high pseudocapacitance of hydrous RuO2. Our work here provides a first principles understanding of the pseudocapacitance for RuO2 in particular and for transition-metal oxides in general.

  8. Evolution in population parameters: density-dependent selection or density-dependent fitness?

    PubMed

    Travis, Joseph; Leips, Jeff; Rodd, F Helen

    2013-05-01

    Density-dependent selection is one of earliest topics of joint interest to both ecologists and evolutionary biologists and thus occupies an important position in the histories of these disciplines. This joint interest is driven by the fact that density-dependent selection is the simplest form of feedback between an ecological effect of an organism's own making (crowding due to sustained population growth) and the selective response to the resulting conditions. This makes density-dependent selection perhaps the simplest process through which we see the full reciprocity between ecology and evolution. In this article, we begin by tracing the history of studying the reciprocity between ecology and evolution, which we see as combining the questions of evolutionary ecology with the assumptions and approaches of ecological genetics. In particular, density-dependent fitness and density-dependent selection were critical concepts underlying ideas about adaptation to biotic selection pressures and the coadaptation of interacting species. However, theory points to a critical distinction between density-dependent fitness and density-dependent selection in their influences on complex evolutionary and ecological interactions among coexisting species. Although density-dependent fitness is manifestly evident in empirical studies, evidence of density-dependent selection is much less common. This leads to the larger question of how prevalent and important density-dependent selection might really be. Life-history variation in the least killifish Heterandria formosa appears to reflect the action of density-dependent selection, and yet compelling evidence is elusive, even in this well-studied system, which suggests some important challenges for understanding density-driven feedbacks between ecology and evolution.

  9. Urban stormwater capture curve using three-parameter mixed exponential probability density function and NRCS runoff curve number method.

    PubMed

    Kim, Sangdan; Han, Suhee

    2010-01-01

    Most related literature regarding designing urban non-point-source management systems assumes that precipitation event-depths follow the 1-parameter exponential probability density function to reduce the mathematical complexity of the derivation process. However, the method of expressing the rainfall is the most important factor for analyzing stormwater; thus, a better mathematical expression, which represents the probability distribution of rainfall depths, is suggested in this study. Also, the rainfall-runoff calculation procedure required for deriving a stormwater-capture curve is altered by the U.S. Natural Resources Conservation Service (Washington, D.C.) (NRCS) runoff curve number method to consider the nonlinearity of the rainfall-runoff relation and, at the same time, obtain a more verifiable and representative curve for design when applying it to urban drainage areas with complicated land-use characteristics, such as occurs in Korea. The result of developing the stormwater-capture curve from the rainfall data in Busan, Korea, confirms that the methodology suggested in this study provides a better solution than the pre-existing one.

  10. Mammographic Density Reduction as a Prognostic Marker for Postmenopausal Breast Cancer: Results Using a Joint Longitudinal-Survival Modeling Approach.

    PubMed

    Andersson, Therese M-L; Crowther, Michael J; Czene, Kamila; Hall, Per; Humphreys, Keith

    2017-11-01

    Previous studies have linked reductions in mammographic density after a breast cancer diagnosis to an improved prognosis. These studies focused on short-term change, using a 2-stage process, treating estimated change as a fixed covariate in a survival model. We propose the use of a joint longitudinal-survival model. This enables us to model long-term trends in density while accounting for dropout as well as for measurement error. We studied the change in mammographic density after a breast cancer diagnosis and its association with prognosis (measured by cause-specific mortality), overall and with respect to hormone replacement therapy and tamoxifen treatment. We included 1,740 women aged 50-74 years, diagnosed with breast cancer in Sweden during 1993-1995, with follow-up until 2008. They had a total of 6,317 mammographic density measures available from the first 5 years of follow-up, including baseline measures. We found that the impact of the withdrawal of hormone replacement therapy on density reduction was larger than that of tamoxifen treatment. Unlike previous studies, we found that there was an association between density reduction and survival, both for tamoxifen-treated women and women who were not treated with tamoxifen. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

  11. Probability function of breaking-limited surface elevation. [wind generated waves of ocean

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tung, C. C.; Huang, N. E.; Yuan, Y.; Long, S. R.

    1989-01-01

    The effect of wave breaking on the probability function of surface elevation is examined. The surface elevation limited by wave breaking zeta sub b(t) is first related to the original wave elevation zeta(t) and its second derivative. An approximate, second-order, nonlinear, non-Gaussian model for zeta(t) of arbitrary but moderate bandwidth is presented, and an expression for the probability density function zeta sub b(t) is derived. The results show clearly that the effect of wave breaking on the probability density function of surface elevation is to introduce a secondary hump on the positive side of the probability density function, a phenomenon also observed in wind wave tank experiments.

  12. Probability density functions for radial anisotropy: implications for the upper 1200 km of the mantle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beghein, Caroline; Trampert, Jeannot

    2004-01-01

    The presence of radial anisotropy in the upper mantle, transition zone and top of the lower mantle is investigated by applying a model space search technique to Rayleigh and Love wave phase velocity models. Probability density functions are obtained independently for S-wave anisotropy, P-wave anisotropy, intermediate parameter η, Vp, Vs and density anomalies. The likelihoods for P-wave and S-wave anisotropy beneath continents cannot be explained by a dry olivine-rich upper mantle at depths larger than 220 km. Indeed, while shear-wave anisotropy tends to disappear below 220 km depth in continental areas, P-wave anisotropy is still present but its sign changes compared to the uppermost mantle. This could be due to an increase with depth of the amount of pyroxene relative to olivine in these regions, although the presence of water, partial melt or a change in the deformation mechanism cannot be ruled out as yet. A similar observation is made for old oceans, but not for young ones where VSH> VSV appears likely down to 670 km depth and VPH> VPV down to 400 km depth. The change of sign in P-wave anisotropy seems to be qualitatively correlated with the presence of the Lehmann discontinuity, generally observed beneath continents and some oceans but not beneath ridges. Parameter η shows a similar age-related depth pattern as shear-wave anisotropy in the uppermost mantle and it undergoes the same change of sign as P-wave anisotropy at 220 km depth. The ratio between dln Vs and dln Vp suggests that a chemical component is needed to explain the anomalies in most places at depths greater than 220 km. More tests are needed to infer the robustness of the results for density, but they do not affect the results for anisotropy.

  13. Evaluating detection probabilities for American marten in the Black Hills, South Dakota

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Smith, Joshua B.; Jenks, Jonathan A.; Klaver, Robert W.

    2007-01-01

    Assessing the effectiveness of monitoring techniques designed to determine presence of forest carnivores, such as American marten (Martes americana), is crucial for validation of survey results. Although comparisons between techniques have been made, little attention has been paid to the issue of detection probabilities (p). Thus, the underlying assumption has been that detection probabilities equal 1.0. We used presence-absence data obtained from a track-plate survey in conjunction with results from a saturation-trapping study to derive detection probabilities when marten occurred at high (>2 marten/10.2 km2) and low (???1 marten/10.2 km2) densities within 8 10.2-km2 quadrats. Estimated probability of detecting marten in high-density quadrats was p = 0.952 (SE = 0.047), whereas the detection probability for low-density quadrats was considerably lower (p = 0.333, SE = 0.136). Our results indicated that failure to account for imperfect detection could lead to an underestimation of marten presence in 15-52% of low-density quadrats in the Black Hills, South Dakota, USA. We recommend that repeated site-survey data be analyzed to assess detection probabilities when documenting carnivore survey results.

  14. How weak values emerge in joint measurements on cloned quantum systems.

    PubMed

    Hofmann, Holger F

    2012-07-13

    A statistical analysis of optimal universal cloning shows that it is possible to identify an ideal (but nonpositive) copying process that faithfully maps all properties of the original Hilbert space onto two separate quantum systems, resulting in perfect correlations for all observables. The joint probabilities for noncommuting measurements on separate clones then correspond to the real parts of the complex joint probabilities observed in weak measurements on a single system, where the measurements on the two clones replace the corresponding sequence of weak measurement and postselection. The imaginary parts of weak measurement statics can be obtained by replacing the cloning process with a partial swap operation. A controlled-swap operation combines both processes, making the complete weak measurement statistics accessible as a well-defined contribution to the joint probabilities of fully resolved projective measurements on the two output systems.

  15. Computer simulation of random variables and vectors with arbitrary probability distribution laws

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bogdan, V. M.

    1981-01-01

    Assume that there is given an arbitrary n-dimensional probability distribution F. A recursive construction is found for a sequence of functions x sub 1 = f sub 1 (U sub 1, ..., U sub n), ..., x sub n = f sub n (U sub 1, ..., U sub n) such that if U sub 1, ..., U sub n are independent random variables having uniform distribution over the open interval (0,1), then the joint distribution of the variables x sub 1, ..., x sub n coincides with the distribution F. Since uniform independent random variables can be well simulated by means of a computer, this result allows one to simulate arbitrary n-random variables if their joint probability distribution is known.

  16. Probability density function of non-reactive solute concentration in heterogeneous porous formations

    Treesearch

    Alberto Bellin; Daniele Tonina

    2007-01-01

    Available models of solute transport in heterogeneous formations lack in providing complete characterization of the predicted concentration. This is a serious drawback especially in risk analysis where confidence intervals and probability of exceeding threshold values are required. Our contribution to fill this gap of knowledge is a probability distribution model for...

  17. Nonstationary envelope process and first excursion probability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yang, J.

    1972-01-01

    A definition of the envelope of nonstationary random processes is proposed. The establishment of the envelope definition makes it possible to simulate the nonstationary random envelope directly. Envelope statistics, such as the density function, joint density function, moment function, and level crossing rate, which are relevent to analyses of catastrophic failure, fatigue, and crack propagation in structures, are derived. Applications of the envelope statistics to the prediction of structural reliability under random loadings are discussed in detail.

  18. LFSPMC: Linear feature selection program using the probability of misclassification

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Guseman, L. F., Jr.; Marion, B. P.

    1975-01-01

    The computational procedure and associated computer program for a linear feature selection technique are presented. The technique assumes that: a finite number, m, of classes exists; each class is described by an n-dimensional multivariate normal density function of its measurement vectors; the mean vector and covariance matrix for each density function are known (or can be estimated); and the a priori probability for each class is known. The technique produces a single linear combination of the original measurements which minimizes the one-dimensional probability of misclassification defined by the transformed densities.

  19. Official Positions for FRAX® Bone Mineral Density and FRAX® simplification from Joint Official Positions Development Conference of the International Society for Clinical Densitometry and International Osteoporosis Foundation on FRAX®.

    PubMed

    Lewiecki, E Michael; Compston, Juliet E; Miller, Paul D; Adachi, Jonathan D; Adams, Judith E; Leslie, William D; Kanis, John A; Moayyeri, Alireza; Adler, Robert A; Hans, Didier B; Kendler, David L; Diez-Perez, Adolfo; Krieg, Marc-Antoine; Masri, Basel K; Lorenc, Roman R; Bauer, Douglas C; Blake, Glen M; Josse, Robert G; Clark, Patricia; Khan, Aliya A

    2011-01-01

    Tools to predict fracture risk are useful for selecting patients for pharmacological therapy in order to reduce fracture risk and redirect limited healthcare resources to those who are most likely to benefit. FRAX® is a World Health Organization fracture risk assessment algorithm for estimating the 10-year probability of hip fracture and major osteoporotic fracture. Effective application of FRAX® in clinical practice requires a thorough understanding of its limitations as well as its utility. For some patients, FRAX® may underestimate or overestimate fracture risk. In order to address some of the common issues encountered with the use of FRAX® for individual patients, the International Society for Clinical Densitometry (ISCD) and International Osteoporosis Foundation (IOF) assigned task forces to review the medical evidence and make recommendations for optimal use of FRAX® in clinical practice. Among the issues addressed were the use of bone mineral density (BMD) measurements at skeletal sites other than the femoral neck, the use of technologies other than dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry, the use of FRAX® without BMD input, the use of FRAX® to monitor treatment, and the addition of the rate of bone loss as a clinical risk factor for FRAX®. The evidence and recommendations were presented to a panel of experts at the Joint ISCD-IOF FRAX® Position Development Conference, resulting in the development of Joint ISCD-IOF Official Positions addressing FRAX®-related issues. Copyright © 2011 The International Society for Clinical Densitometry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Computing rates of Markov models of voltage-gated ion channels by inverting partial differential equations governing the probability density functions of the conducting and non-conducting states.

    PubMed

    Tveito, Aslak; Lines, Glenn T; Edwards, Andrew G; McCulloch, Andrew

    2016-07-01

    Markov models are ubiquitously used to represent the function of single ion channels. However, solving the inverse problem to construct a Markov model of single channel dynamics from bilayer or patch-clamp recordings remains challenging, particularly for channels involving complex gating processes. Methods for solving the inverse problem are generally based on data from voltage clamp measurements. Here, we describe an alternative approach to this problem based on measurements of voltage traces. The voltage traces define probability density functions of the functional states of an ion channel. These probability density functions can also be computed by solving a deterministic system of partial differential equations. The inversion is based on tuning the rates of the Markov models used in the deterministic system of partial differential equations such that the solution mimics the properties of the probability density function gathered from (pseudo) experimental data as well as possible. The optimization is done by defining a cost function to measure the difference between the deterministic solution and the solution based on experimental data. By evoking the properties of this function, it is possible to infer whether the rates of the Markov model are identifiable by our method. We present applications to Markov model well-known from the literature. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Novel density-based and hierarchical density-based clustering algorithms for uncertain data.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Xianchao; Liu, Han; Zhang, Xiaotong

    2017-09-01

    Uncertain data has posed a great challenge to traditional clustering algorithms. Recently, several algorithms have been proposed for clustering uncertain data, and among them density-based techniques seem promising for handling data uncertainty. However, some issues like losing uncertain information, high time complexity and nonadaptive threshold have not been addressed well in the previous density-based algorithm FDBSCAN and hierarchical density-based algorithm FOPTICS. In this paper, we firstly propose a novel density-based algorithm PDBSCAN, which improves the previous FDBSCAN from the following aspects: (1) it employs a more accurate method to compute the probability that the distance between two uncertain objects is less than or equal to a boundary value, instead of the sampling-based method in FDBSCAN; (2) it introduces new definitions of probability neighborhood, support degree, core object probability, direct reachability probability, thus reducing the complexity and solving the issue of nonadaptive threshold (for core object judgement) in FDBSCAN. Then, we modify the algorithm PDBSCAN to an improved version (PDBSCANi), by using a better cluster assignment strategy to ensure that every object will be assigned to the most appropriate cluster, thus solving the issue of nonadaptive threshold (for direct density reachability judgement) in FDBSCAN. Furthermore, as PDBSCAN and PDBSCANi have difficulties for clustering uncertain data with non-uniform cluster density, we propose a novel hierarchical density-based algorithm POPTICS by extending the definitions of PDBSCAN, adding new definitions of fuzzy core distance and fuzzy reachability distance, and employing a new clustering framework. POPTICS can reveal the cluster structures of the datasets with different local densities in different regions better than PDBSCAN and PDBSCANi, and it addresses the issues in FOPTICS. Experimental results demonstrate the superiority of our proposed algorithms over the existing

  2. A Student’s t Mixture Probability Hypothesis Density Filter for Multi-Target Tracking with Outliers

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Zhuowei; Chen, Shuxin; Wu, Hao; He, Renke; Hao, Lin

    2018-01-01

    In multi-target tracking, the outliers-corrupted process and measurement noises can reduce the performance of the probability hypothesis density (PHD) filter severely. To solve the problem, this paper proposed a novel PHD filter, called Student’s t mixture PHD (STM-PHD) filter. The proposed filter models the heavy-tailed process noise and measurement noise as a Student’s t distribution as well as approximates the multi-target intensity as a mixture of Student’s t components to be propagated in time. Then, a closed PHD recursion is obtained based on Student’s t approximation. Our approach can make full use of the heavy-tailed characteristic of a Student’s t distribution to handle the situations with heavy-tailed process and the measurement noises. The simulation results verify that the proposed filter can overcome the negative effect generated by outliers and maintain a good tracking accuracy in the simultaneous presence of process and measurement outliers. PMID:29617348

  3. Decrease in local volumetric bone mineral density (vBMD) in osteoarthritic joints is associated with the increase in cartilage damage: a pQCT study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tamaddon, Maryam; Chen, Shen Mao; Vanaclocha, Leyre; Hart, Alister; El-Husseiny, Moataz; Henckel, Johann; Liu, Chaozong

    2017-11-01

    Osteoarthritis (OA) is the most common type of arthritis and a major cause of disability in the adult population. It affects both cartilage and subchondral bone in the joints. There has been some progress in understanding the changes in subchondral bone with progression of osteoarthritis. However, local changes in subchondral bone such as microstructure or volumetric bone mineral density in connection with the defect in cartilage are relatively unexplored. To develop an effective treatment for progression of OA, it is important to understand how the physical environment provided by the subchondral bone affects the overlying cartilage. In this study we examined the volumetric bone mineral density (vBMD) distribution in the osteoarthritic joint tissues obtained from total hip replacement surgeries due to osteoarthritis, using peripheral quantitative CT (pQCT). It was found that there is a significant decrease in volumetric bone mineral density, which co-localises with the damage in the overlying cartilage. This was not limited to the subchondral bone immediately adjacent to the cartilage defect but continued in the layers below. Bone resorption and cyst formation in the OA tissues were also detected. We observed that the bone surrounding subchondral bone cysts exhibited much higher volumetric bone mineral density than that of the surrounding bones. PQCT was able to detect significant changes in vBMD between OA and non-OA samples, as well as between areas of different cartilage degeneration, which points to its potential as a technique for detection of early OA.

  4. Joint Bayesian Estimation of Quasar Continua and the Lyα Forest Flux Probability Distribution Function

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eilers, Anna-Christina; Hennawi, Joseph F.; Lee, Khee-Gan

    2017-08-01

    We present a new Bayesian algorithm making use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling that allows us to simultaneously estimate the unknown continuum level of each quasar in an ensemble of high-resolution spectra, as well as their common probability distribution function (PDF) for the transmitted Lyα forest flux. This fully automated PDF regulated continuum fitting method models the unknown quasar continuum with a linear principal component analysis (PCA) basis, with the PCA coefficients treated as nuisance parameters. The method allows one to estimate parameters governing the thermal state of the intergalactic medium (IGM), such as the slope of the temperature-density relation γ -1, while marginalizing out continuum uncertainties in a fully Bayesian way. Using realistic mock quasar spectra created from a simplified semi-numerical model of the IGM, we show that this method recovers the underlying quasar continua to a precision of ≃ 7 % and ≃ 10 % at z = 3 and z = 5, respectively. Given the number of principal component spectra, this is comparable to the underlying accuracy of the PCA model itself. Most importantly, we show that we can achieve a nearly unbiased estimate of the slope γ -1 of the IGM temperature-density relation with a precision of +/- 8.6 % at z = 3 and +/- 6.1 % at z = 5, for an ensemble of ten mock high-resolution quasar spectra. Applying this method to real quasar spectra and comparing to a more realistic IGM model from hydrodynamical simulations would enable precise measurements of the thermal and cosmological parameters governing the IGM, albeit with somewhat larger uncertainties, given the increased flexibility of the model.

  5. The use of spatial dose gradients and probability density function to evaluate the effect of internal organ motion for prostate IMRT treatment planning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiang, Runqing; Barnett, Rob B.; Chow, James C. L.; Chen, Jeff Z. Y.

    2007-03-01

    The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of internal organ motion on IMRT treatment planning of prostate patients using a spatial dose gradient and probability density function. Spatial dose distributions were generated from a Pinnacle3 planning system using a co-planar, five-field intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) technique. Five plans were created for each patient using equally spaced beams but shifting the angular displacement of the beam by 15° increments. Dose profiles taken through the isocentre in anterior-posterior (A-P), right-left (R-L) and superior-inferior (S-I) directions for IMRT plans were analysed by exporting RTOG file data from Pinnacle. The convolution of the 'static' dose distribution D0(x, y, z) and probability density function (PDF), denoted as P(x, y, z), was used to analyse the combined effect of repositioning error and internal organ motion. Organ motion leads to an enlarged beam penumbra. The amount of percentage mean dose deviation (PMDD) depends on the dose gradient and organ motion probability density function. Organ motion dose sensitivity was defined by the rate of change in PMDD with standard deviation of motion PDF and was found to increase with the maximum dose gradient in anterior, posterior, left and right directions. Due to common inferior and superior field borders of the field segments, the sharpest dose gradient will occur in the inferior or both superior and inferior penumbrae. Thus, prostate motion in the S-I direction produces the highest dose difference. The PMDD is within 2.5% when standard deviation is less than 5 mm, but the PMDD is over 2.5% in the inferior direction when standard deviation is higher than 5 mm in the inferior direction. Verification of prostate organ motion in the inferior directions is essential. The margin of the planning target volume (PTV) significantly impacts on the confidence of tumour control probability (TCP) and level of normal tissue complication probability (NTCP

  6. The use of spatial dose gradients and probability density function to evaluate the effect of internal organ motion for prostate IMRT treatment planning.

    PubMed

    Jiang, Runqing; Barnett, Rob B; Chow, James C L; Chen, Jeff Z Y

    2007-03-07

    The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of internal organ motion on IMRT treatment planning of prostate patients using a spatial dose gradient and probability density function. Spatial dose distributions were generated from a Pinnacle3 planning system using a co-planar, five-field intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) technique. Five plans were created for each patient using equally spaced beams but shifting the angular displacement of the beam by 15 degree increments. Dose profiles taken through the isocentre in anterior-posterior (A-P), right-left (R-L) and superior-inferior (S-I) directions for IMRT plans were analysed by exporting RTOG file data from Pinnacle. The convolution of the 'static' dose distribution D0(x, y, z) and probability density function (PDF), denoted as P(x, y, z), was used to analyse the combined effect of repositioning error and internal organ motion. Organ motion leads to an enlarged beam penumbra. The amount of percentage mean dose deviation (PMDD) depends on the dose gradient and organ motion probability density function. Organ motion dose sensitivity was defined by the rate of change in PMDD with standard deviation of motion PDF and was found to increase with the maximum dose gradient in anterior, posterior, left and right directions. Due to common inferior and superior field borders of the field segments, the sharpest dose gradient will occur in the inferior or both superior and inferior penumbrae. Thus, prostate motion in the S-I direction produces the highest dose difference. The PMDD is within 2.5% when standard deviation is less than 5 mm, but the PMDD is over 2.5% in the inferior direction when standard deviation is higher than 5 mm in the inferior direction. Verification of prostate organ motion in the inferior directions is essential. The margin of the planning target volume (PTV) significantly impacts on the confidence of tumour control probability (TCP) and level of normal tissue complication probability

  7. Periprosthetic Joint Infections: Clinical and Bench Research

    PubMed Central

    Legout, Laurence; Senneville, Eric

    2013-01-01

    Prosthetic joint infection is a devastating complication with high morbidity and substantial cost. The incidence is low but probably underestimated. Despite a significant basic and clinical research in this field, many questions concerning the definition of prosthetic infection as well the diagnosis and the management of these infections remained unanswered. We review the current literature about the new diagnostic methods, the management and the prevention of prosthetic joint infections. PMID:24288493

  8. The Analysis of Adhesively Bonded Advanced Composite Joints Using Joint Finite Elements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stapleton, Scott E.; Waas, Anthony M.

    2012-01-01

    The design and sizing of adhesively bonded joints has always been a major bottleneck in the design of composite vehicles. Dense finite element (FE) meshes are required to capture the full behavior of a joint numerically, but these dense meshes are impractical in vehicle-scale models where a course mesh is more desirable to make quick assessments and comparisons of different joint geometries. Analytical models are often helpful in sizing, but difficulties arise in coupling these models with full-vehicle FE models. Therefore, a joint FE was created which can be used within structural FE models to make quick assessments of bonded composite joints. The shape functions of the joint FE were found by solving the governing equations for a structural model for a joint. By analytically determining the shape functions of the joint FE, the complex joint behavior can be captured with very few elements. This joint FE was modified and used to consider adhesives with functionally graded material properties to reduce the peel stress concentrations located near adherend discontinuities. Several practical concerns impede the actual use of such adhesives. These include increased manufacturing complications, alterations to the grading due to adhesive flow during manufacturing, and whether changing the loading conditions significantly impact the effectiveness of the grading. An analytical study is conducted to address these three concerns. Furthermore, proof-of-concept testing is conducted to show the potential advantages of functionally graded adhesives. In this study, grading is achieved by strategically placing glass beads within the adhesive layer at different densities along the joint. Furthermore, the capability to model non-linear adhesive constitutive behavior with large rotations was developed, and progressive failure of the adhesive was modeled by re-meshing the joint as the adhesive fails. Results predicted using the joint FE was compared with experimental results for various

  9. Hunting high and low: disentangling primordial and late-time non-Gaussianity with cosmic densities in spheres

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Uhlemann, C.; Pajer, E.; Pichon, C.; Nishimichi, T.; Codis, S.; Bernardeau, F.

    2018-03-01

    Non-Gaussianities of dynamical origin are disentangled from primordial ones using the formalism of large deviation statistics with spherical collapse dynamics. This is achieved by relying on accurate analytical predictions for the one-point probability distribution function and the two-point clustering of spherically averaged cosmic densities (sphere bias). Sphere bias extends the idea of halo bias to intermediate density environments and voids as underdense regions. In the presence of primordial non-Gaussianity, sphere bias displays a strong scale dependence relevant for both high- and low-density regions, which is predicted analytically. The statistics of densities in spheres are built to model primordial non-Gaussianity via an initial skewness with a scale dependence that depends on the bispectrum of the underlying model. The analytical formulas with the measured non-linear dark matter variance as input are successfully tested against numerical simulations. For local non-Gaussianity with a range from fNL = -100 to +100, they are found to agree within 2 per cent or better for densities ρ ∈ [0.5, 3] in spheres of radius 15 Mpc h-1 down to z = 0.35. The validity of the large deviation statistics formalism is thereby established for all observationally relevant local-type departures from perfectly Gaussian initial conditions. The corresponding estimators for the amplitude of the non-linear variance σ8 and primordial skewness fNL are validated using a fiducial joint maximum likelihood experiment. The influence of observational effects and the prospects for a future detection of primordial non-Gaussianity from joint one- and two-point densities-in-spheres statistics are discussed.

  10. Quasi-probabilities in conditioned quantum measurement and a geometric/statistical interpretation of Aharonov's weak value

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Jaeha; Tsutsui, Izumi

    2017-05-01

    We show that the joint behavior of an arbitrary pair of (generally noncommuting) quantum observables can be described by quasi-probabilities, which are an extended version of the standard probabilities used for describing the outcome of measurement for a single observable. The physical situations that require these quasi-probabilities arise when one considers quantum measurement of an observable conditioned by some other variable, with the notable example being the weak measurement employed to obtain Aharonov's weak value. Specifically, we present a general prescription for the construction of quasi-joint probability (QJP) distributions associated with a given combination of observables. These QJP distributions are introduced in two complementary approaches: one from a bottom-up, strictly operational construction realized by examining the mathematical framework of the conditioned measurement scheme, and the other from a top-down viewpoint realized by applying the results of the spectral theorem for normal operators and their Fourier transforms. It is then revealed that, for a pair of simultaneously measurable observables, the QJP distribution reduces to the unique standard joint probability distribution of the pair, whereas for a noncommuting pair there exists an inherent indefiniteness in the choice of such QJP distributions, admitting a multitude of candidates that may equally be used for describing the joint behavior of the pair. In the course of our argument, we find that the QJP distributions furnish the space of operators in the underlying Hilbert space with their characteristic geometric structures such that the orthogonal projections and inner products of observables can be given statistical interpretations as, respectively, “conditionings” and “correlations”. The weak value Aw for an observable A is then given a geometric/statistical interpretation as either the orthogonal projection of A onto the subspace generated by another observable B, or

  11. Simple gain probability functions for large reflector antennas of JPL/NASA

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jamnejad, V.

    2003-01-01

    Simple models for the patterns as well as their cumulative gain probability and probability density functions of the Deep Space Network antennas are developed. These are needed for the study and evaluation of interference from unwanted sources such as the emerging terrestrial system, High Density Fixed Service, with the Ka-band receiving antenna systems in Goldstone Station of the Deep Space Network.

  12. Dynamic Uncertain Causality Graph for Knowledge Representation and Probabilistic Reasoning: Directed Cyclic Graph and Joint Probability Distribution.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Qin

    2015-07-01

    Probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) such as Bayesian network (BN) have been widely applied in uncertain causality representation and probabilistic reasoning. Dynamic uncertain causality graph (DUCG) is a newly presented model of PGMs, which can be applied to fault diagnosis of large and complex industrial systems, disease diagnosis, and so on. The basic methodology of DUCG has been previously presented, in which only the directed acyclic graph (DAG) was addressed. However, the mathematical meaning of DUCG was not discussed. In this paper, the DUCG with directed cyclic graphs (DCGs) is addressed. In contrast, BN does not allow DCGs, as otherwise the conditional independence will not be satisfied. The inference algorithm for the DUCG with DCGs is presented, which not only extends the capabilities of DUCG from DAGs to DCGs but also enables users to decompose a large and complex DUCG into a set of small, simple sub-DUCGs, so that a large and complex knowledge base can be easily constructed, understood, and maintained. The basic mathematical definition of a complete DUCG with or without DCGs is proved to be a joint probability distribution (JPD) over a set of random variables. The incomplete DUCG as a part of a complete DUCG may represent a part of JPD. Examples are provided to illustrate the methodology.

  13. Refinement of the probability density function model for preferential concentration of aerosol particles in isotropic turbulence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zaichik, Leonid I.; Alipchenkov, Vladimir M.

    2007-11-01

    The purposes of the paper are threefold: (i) to refine the statistical model of preferential particle concentration in isotropic turbulence that was previously proposed by Zaichik and Alipchenkov [Phys. Fluids 15, 1776 (2003)], (ii) to investigate the effect of clustering of low-inertia particles using the refined model, and (iii) to advance a simple model for predicting the collision rate of aerosol particles. The model developed is based on a kinetic equation for the two-point probability density function of the relative velocity distribution of particle pairs. Improvements in predicting the preferential concentration of low-inertia particles are attained due to refining the description of the turbulent velocity field of the carrier fluid by including a difference between the time scales of the of strain and rotation rate correlations. The refined model results in a better agreement with direct numerical simulations for aerosol particles.

  14. ExGUtils: A Python Package for Statistical Analysis With the ex-Gaussian Probability Density.

    PubMed

    Moret-Tatay, Carmen; Gamermann, Daniel; Navarro-Pardo, Esperanza; Fernández de Córdoba Castellá, Pedro

    2018-01-01

    The study of reaction times and their underlying cognitive processes is an important field in Psychology. Reaction times are often modeled through the ex-Gaussian distribution, because it provides a good fit to multiple empirical data. The complexity of this distribution makes the use of computational tools an essential element. Therefore, there is a strong need for efficient and versatile computational tools for the research in this area. In this manuscript we discuss some mathematical details of the ex-Gaussian distribution and apply the ExGUtils package, a set of functions and numerical tools, programmed for python, developed for numerical analysis of data involving the ex-Gaussian probability density. In order to validate the package, we present an extensive analysis of fits obtained with it, discuss advantages and differences between the least squares and maximum likelihood methods and quantitatively evaluate the goodness of the obtained fits (which is usually an overlooked point in most literature in the area). The analysis done allows one to identify outliers in the empirical datasets and criteriously determine if there is a need for data trimming and at which points it should be done.

  15. ExGUtils: A Python Package for Statistical Analysis With the ex-Gaussian Probability Density

    PubMed Central

    Moret-Tatay, Carmen; Gamermann, Daniel; Navarro-Pardo, Esperanza; Fernández de Córdoba Castellá, Pedro

    2018-01-01

    The study of reaction times and their underlying cognitive processes is an important field in Psychology. Reaction times are often modeled through the ex-Gaussian distribution, because it provides a good fit to multiple empirical data. The complexity of this distribution makes the use of computational tools an essential element. Therefore, there is a strong need for efficient and versatile computational tools for the research in this area. In this manuscript we discuss some mathematical details of the ex-Gaussian distribution and apply the ExGUtils package, a set of functions and numerical tools, programmed for python, developed for numerical analysis of data involving the ex-Gaussian probability density. In order to validate the package, we present an extensive analysis of fits obtained with it, discuss advantages and differences between the least squares and maximum likelihood methods and quantitatively evaluate the goodness of the obtained fits (which is usually an overlooked point in most literature in the area). The analysis done allows one to identify outliers in the empirical datasets and criteriously determine if there is a need for data trimming and at which points it should be done. PMID:29765345

  16. Probability density function of a puff dispersing from the wall of a turbulent channel

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nguyen, Quoc; Papavassiliou, Dimitrios

    2015-11-01

    Study of dispersion of passive contaminants in turbulence has proved to be helpful in understanding fundamental heat and mass transfer phenomena. Many simulation and experimental works have been carried out to locate and track motions of scalar markers in a flow. One method is to combine Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS) and Lagrangian Scalar Tracking (LST) to record locations of markers. While this has proved to be useful, high computational cost remains a concern. In this study, we develop a model that could reproduce results obtained by DNS and LST for turbulent flow. Puffs of markers with different Schmidt numbers were released into a flow field at a frictional Reynolds number of 150. The point of release was at the channel wall, so that both diffusion and convection contribute to the puff dispersion pattern, defining different stages of dispersion. Based on outputs from DNS and LST, we seek the most suitable and feasible probability density function (PDF) that represents distribution of markers in the flow field. The PDF would play a significant role in predicting heat and mass transfer in wall turbulence, and would prove to be helpful where DNS and LST are not always available.

  17. Factors affecting results of fluoroscopy-guided facet joint injection: Probable differences in the outcome of treatment between pure facet joint hypertrophy and concomitant diseases.

    PubMed

    Albayrak, Akif; Ozkul, Baris; Balioglu, Mehmet Bulent; Atici, Yunus; Gultekin, Muhammet Zeki; Albayrak, Merih Dilan

    2016-01-01

    Retrospective cohort study. Facet joints are considered a common source of chronic low-back pain. To determine whether pathogens related to the facet joint arthritis have any effect on treatment failure. Facet joint injection was applied to 94 patients treated at our hospital between 2011 and 2012 (mean age 59.5 years; 80 women and 14 men). For the purpose of analysis, the patients were divided into two groups. Patients who only had facet hypertrophy were placed in group A (47 patients, 41 women and 6 men, mean age 55.3 years) and patients who had any additional major pathology to facet hypertrophy were placed in group B (47 patients, 39 women and 8 men, mean age 58.9 years). Injections were applied around the facet joint under surgical conditions utilizing fluoroscopy device guidance. A mixture of methylprednisolone and lidocaine was used as the injection ingredient. In terms of Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) and visual analog scale (VAS) scores, no significant difference was found between preinjection and immediate postinjection values in both groups, and the scores of group A patients were significantly lower (P < 0.005) compared with that of group B patients at the end of the third, sixth, and twelfth month. For low-back pain caused by facet hypertrophy, steroid injection around the facet joint is an effective treatment, but if there is an existing major pathology, it is not as effective.

  18. Probability density function of non-reactive solute concentration in heterogeneous porous formations.

    PubMed

    Bellin, Alberto; Tonina, Daniele

    2007-10-30

    Available models of solute transport in heterogeneous formations lack in providing complete characterization of the predicted concentration. This is a serious drawback especially in risk analysis where confidence intervals and probability of exceeding threshold values are required. Our contribution to fill this gap of knowledge is a probability distribution model for the local concentration of conservative tracers migrating in heterogeneous aquifers. Our model accounts for dilution, mechanical mixing within the sampling volume and spreading due to formation heterogeneity. It is developed by modeling local concentration dynamics with an Ito Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) that under the hypothesis of statistical stationarity leads to the Beta probability distribution function (pdf) for the solute concentration. This model shows large flexibility in capturing the smoothing effect of the sampling volume and the associated reduction of the probability of exceeding large concentrations. Furthermore, it is fully characterized by the first two moments of the solute concentration, and these are the same pieces of information required for standard geostatistical techniques employing Normal or Log-Normal distributions. Additionally, we show that in the absence of pore-scale dispersion and for point concentrations the pdf model converges to the binary distribution of [Dagan, G., 1982. Stochastic modeling of groundwater flow by unconditional and conditional probabilities, 2, The solute transport. Water Resour. Res. 18 (4), 835-848.], while it approaches the Normal distribution for sampling volumes much larger than the characteristic scale of the aquifer heterogeneity. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the same model with the spatial moments replacing the statistical moments can be applied to estimate the proportion of the plume volume where solute concentrations are above or below critical thresholds. Application of this model to point and vertically averaged bromide

  19. Asphaltic mixture compaction and density validation : research brief.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2017-02-01

    Research Objectives: : Evaluate HMA longitudinal joint type, method and compaction data to produce specification recommendations to ensure the highest density at longitudinal joints : Evaluate thin lift overlay HMA and provide recommendations...

  20. Modeling Finite-Time Failure Probabilities in Risk Analysis Applications.

    PubMed

    Dimitrova, Dimitrina S; Kaishev, Vladimir K; Zhao, Shouqi

    2015-10-01

    In this article, we introduce a framework for analyzing the risk of systems failure based on estimating the failure probability. The latter is defined as the probability that a certain risk process, characterizing the operations of a system, reaches a possibly time-dependent critical risk level within a finite-time interval. Under general assumptions, we define two dually connected models for the risk process and derive explicit expressions for the failure probability and also the joint probability of the time of the occurrence of failure and the excess of the risk process over the risk level. We illustrate how these probabilistic models and results can be successfully applied in several important areas of risk analysis, among which are systems reliability, inventory management, flood control via dam management, infectious disease spread, and financial insolvency. Numerical illustrations are also presented. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  1. Scalable Joint Models for Reliable Uncertainty-Aware Event Prediction.

    PubMed

    Soleimani, Hossein; Hensman, James; Saria, Suchi

    2017-08-21

    Missing data and noisy observations pose significant challenges for reliably predicting events from irregularly sampled multivariate time series (longitudinal) data. Imputation methods, which are typically used for completing the data prior to event prediction, lack a principled mechanism to account for the uncertainty due to missingness. Alternatively, state-of-the-art joint modeling techniques can be used for jointly modeling the longitudinal and event data and compute event probabilities conditioned on the longitudinal observations. These approaches, however, make strong parametric assumptions and do not easily scale to multivariate signals with many observations. Our proposed approach consists of several key innovations. First, we develop a flexible and scalable joint model based upon sparse multiple-output Gaussian processes. Unlike state-of-the-art joint models, the proposed model can explain highly challenging structure including non-Gaussian noise while scaling to large data. Second, we derive an optimal policy for predicting events using the distribution of the event occurrence estimated by the joint model. The derived policy trades-off the cost of a delayed detection versus incorrect assessments and abstains from making decisions when the estimated event probability does not satisfy the derived confidence criteria. Experiments on a large dataset show that the proposed framework significantly outperforms state-of-the-art techniques in event prediction.

  2. Joint design of QC-LDPC codes for coded cooperation system with joint iterative decoding

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Shunwai; Yang, Fengfan; Tang, Lei; Ejaz, Saqib; Luo, Lin; Maharaj, B. T.

    2016-03-01

    In this paper, we investigate joint design of quasi-cyclic low-density-parity-check (QC-LDPC) codes for coded cooperation system with joint iterative decoding in the destination. First, QC-LDPC codes based on the base matrix and exponent matrix are introduced, and then we describe two types of girth-4 cycles in QC-LDPC codes employed by the source and relay. In the equivalent parity-check matrix corresponding to the jointly designed QC-LDPC codes employed by the source and relay, all girth-4 cycles including both type I and type II are cancelled. Theoretical analysis and numerical simulations show that the jointly designed QC-LDPC coded cooperation well combines cooperation gain and channel coding gain, and outperforms the coded non-cooperation under the same conditions. Furthermore, the bit error rate performance of the coded cooperation employing jointly designed QC-LDPC codes is better than those of random LDPC codes and separately designed QC-LDPC codes over AWGN channels.

  3. Probability density of aperture-averaged irradiance fluctuations for long range free space optical communication links.

    PubMed

    Lyke, Stephen D; Voelz, David G; Roggemann, Michael C

    2009-11-20

    The probability density function (PDF) of aperture-averaged irradiance fluctuations is calculated from wave-optics simulations of a laser after propagating through atmospheric turbulence to investigate the evolution of the distribution as the aperture diameter is increased. The simulation data distribution is compared to theoretical gamma-gamma and lognormal PDF models under a variety of scintillation regimes from weak to strong. Results show that under weak scintillation conditions both the gamma-gamma and lognormal PDF models provide a good fit to the simulation data for all aperture sizes studied. Our results indicate that in moderate scintillation the gamma-gamma PDF provides a better fit to the simulation data than the lognormal PDF for all aperture sizes studied. In the strong scintillation regime, the simulation data distribution is gamma gamma for aperture sizes much smaller than the coherence radius rho0 and lognormal for aperture sizes on the order of rho0 and larger. Examples of how these results affect the bit-error rate of an on-off keyed free space optical communication link are presented.

  4. Force Density Function Relationships in 2-D Granular Media

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Youngquist, Robert C.; Metzger, Philip T.; Kilts, Kelly N.

    2004-01-01

    An integral transform relationship is developed to convert between two important probability density functions (distributions) used in the study of contact forces in granular physics. Developing this transform has now made it possible to compare and relate various theoretical approaches with one another and with the experimental data despite the fact that one may predict the Cartesian probability density and another the force magnitude probability density. Also, the transforms identify which functional forms are relevant to describe the probability density observed in nature, and so the modified Bessel function of the second kind has been identified as the relevant form for the Cartesian probability density corresponding to exponential forms in the force magnitude distribution. Furthermore, it is shown that this transform pair supplies a sufficient mathematical framework to describe the evolution of the force magnitude distribution under shearing. Apart from the choice of several coefficients, whose evolution of values must be explained in the physics, this framework successfully reproduces the features of the distribution that are taken to be an indicator of jamming and unjamming in a granular packing. Key words. Granular Physics, Probability Density Functions, Fourier Transforms

  5. The maximum entropy method of moments and Bayesian probability theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bretthorst, G. Larry

    2013-08-01

    The problem of density estimation occurs in many disciplines. For example, in MRI it is often necessary to classify the types of tissues in an image. To perform this classification one must first identify the characteristics of the tissues to be classified. These characteristics might be the intensity of a T1 weighted image and in MRI many other types of characteristic weightings (classifiers) may be generated. In a given tissue type there is no single intensity that characterizes the tissue, rather there is a distribution of intensities. Often this distributions can be characterized by a Gaussian, but just as often it is much more complicated. Either way, estimating the distribution of intensities is an inference problem. In the case of a Gaussian distribution, one must estimate the mean and standard deviation. However, in the Non-Gaussian case the shape of the density function itself must be inferred. Three common techniques for estimating density functions are binned histograms [1, 2], kernel density estimation [3, 4], and the maximum entropy method of moments [5, 6]. In the introduction, the maximum entropy method of moments will be reviewed. Some of its problems and conditions under which it fails will be discussed. Then in later sections, the functional form of the maximum entropy method of moments probability distribution will be incorporated into Bayesian probability theory. It will be shown that Bayesian probability theory solves all of the problems with the maximum entropy method of moments. One gets posterior probabilities for the Lagrange multipliers, and, finally, one can put error bars on the resulting estimated density function.

  6. Partitioning the sources of demographic variation reveals density-dependent nest predation in an island bird population

    PubMed Central

    Sofaer, Helen R; Sillett, T Scott; Langin, Kathryn M; Morrison, Scott A; Ghalambor, Cameron K

    2014-01-01

    Ecological factors often shape demography through multiple mechanisms, making it difficult to identify the sources of demographic variation. In particular, conspecific density can influence both the strength of competition and the predation rate, but density-dependent competition has received more attention, particularly among terrestrial vertebrates and in island populations. A better understanding of how both competition and predation contribute to density-dependent variation in fecundity can be gained by partitioning the effects of density on offspring number from its effects on reproductive failure, while also evaluating how biotic and abiotic factors jointly shape demography. We examined the effects of population density and precipitation on fecundity, nest survival, and adult survival in an insular population of orange-crowned warblers (Oreothlypis celata) that breeds at high densities and exhibits a suite of traits suggesting strong intraspecific competition. Breeding density had a negative influence on fecundity, but it acted by increasing the probability of reproductive failure through nest predation, rather than through competition, which was predicted to reduce the number of offspring produced by successful individuals. Our results demonstrate that density-dependent nest predation can underlie the relationship between population density and fecundity even in a high-density, insular population where intraspecific competition should be strong. PMID:25077023

  7. Partitioning the sources of demographic variation reveals density-dependent nest predation in an island bird population.

    PubMed

    Sofaer, Helen R; Sillett, T Scott; Langin, Kathryn M; Morrison, Scott A; Ghalambor, Cameron K

    2014-07-01

    Ecological factors often shape demography through multiple mechanisms, making it difficult to identify the sources of demographic variation. In particular, conspecific density can influence both the strength of competition and the predation rate, but density-dependent competition has received more attention, particularly among terrestrial vertebrates and in island populations. A better understanding of how both competition and predation contribute to density-dependent variation in fecundity can be gained by partitioning the effects of density on offspring number from its effects on reproductive failure, while also evaluating how biotic and abiotic factors jointly shape demography. We examined the effects of population density and precipitation on fecundity, nest survival, and adult survival in an insular population of orange-crowned warblers (Oreothlypis celata) that breeds at high densities and exhibits a suite of traits suggesting strong intraspecific competition. Breeding density had a negative influence on fecundity, but it acted by increasing the probability of reproductive failure through nest predation, rather than through competition, which was predicted to reduce the number of offspring produced by successful individuals. Our results demonstrate that density-dependent nest predation can underlie the relationship between population density and fecundity even in a high-density, insular population where intraspecific competition should be strong.

  8. Surveillance system and method having an adaptive sequential probability fault detection test

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Herzog, James P. (Inventor); Bickford, Randall L. (Inventor)

    2005-01-01

    System and method providing surveillance of an asset such as a process and/or apparatus by providing training and surveillance procedures that numerically fit a probability density function to an observed residual error signal distribution that is correlative to normal asset operation and then utilizes the fitted probability density function in a dynamic statistical hypothesis test for providing improved asset surveillance.

  9. Surveillance system and method having an adaptive sequential probability fault detection test

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bickford, Randall L. (Inventor); Herzog, James P. (Inventor)

    2006-01-01

    System and method providing surveillance of an asset such as a process and/or apparatus by providing training and surveillance procedures that numerically fit a probability density function to an observed residual error signal distribution that is correlative to normal asset operation and then utilizes the fitted probability density function in a dynamic statistical hypothesis test for providing improved asset surveillance.

  10. Surveillance System and Method having an Adaptive Sequential Probability Fault Detection Test

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bickford, Randall L. (Inventor); Herzog, James P. (Inventor)

    2008-01-01

    System and method providing surveillance of an asset such as a process and/or apparatus by providing training and surveillance procedures that numerically fit a probability density function to an observed residual error signal distribution that is correlative to normal asset operation and then utilizes the fitted probability density function in a dynamic statistical hypothesis test for providing improved asset surveillance.

  11. Joint distraction attenuates osteoarthritis by reducing secondary inflammation, cartilage degeneration and subchondral bone aberrant change.

    PubMed

    Chen, Y; Sun, Y; Pan, X; Ho, K; Li, G

    2015-10-01

    Osteoarthritis (OA) is a progressive joint disorder. To date, there is not effective medical therapy. Joint distraction has given us hope for slowing down the OA progression. In this study, we investigated the benefits of joint distraction in OA rat model and the probable underlying mechanisms. OA was induced in the right knee joint of rats through anterior cruciate ligament transaction (ACLT) plus medial meniscus resection. The animals were randomized into three groups: two groups were treated with an external fixator for a subsequent 3 weeks, one with and one without joint distraction; and one group without external fixator as OA control. Serum interleukin-1β level was evaluated by ELISA; cartilage quality was assessed by histology examinations (gross appearance, Safranin-O/Fast green stain) and immunohistochemistry examinations (MMP13, Col X); subchondral bone aberrant changes was analyzed by micro-CT and immunohistochemistry (Nestin, Osterix) examinations. Characters of OA were present in the OA group, contrary to in general less severe damage after distraction treatment: firstly, IL-1β level was significantly decreased; secondly, cartilage degeneration was attenuated with lower histologic damage scores and the lower percentage of MMP13 or Col X positive chondrocytes; finally, subchondral bone abnormal change was attenuated, with reduced bone mineral density (BMD) and bone volume/total tissue volume (BV/TV) and the number of Nestin or Osterix positive cells in the subchondral bone. In the present study, we demonstrated that joint distraction reduced the level of secondary inflammation, cartilage degeneration and subchondral bone aberrant change, joint distraction may be a strategy for slowing OA progression. Copyright © 2015 Osteoarthritis Research Society International. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Lumbar disc degeneration was not related to spine and hip bone mineral densities in Chinese: facet joint osteoarthritis may confound the association.

    PubMed

    Pan, Jianjiang; Lu, Xuan; Yang, Ge; Han, Yongmei; Tong, Xiang; Wang, Yue

    2017-12-01

    A sample of 512 Chinese was studied and we observed that greater disc degeneration on MRI was associated with greater spine DXA BMD. Yet, this association may be confounded by facet joint osteoarthritis. BMD may not be a risk factor for lumbar disc degeneration in Chinese. Evidence suggested that lumbar vertebral bone and intervertebral disc interact with each other in multiple ways. The current paper aims to determine the association between bone mineral density (BMD) and lumbar disc degeneration using a sample of Chinese. We studied 165 patients with back disorders and 347 general subjects from China. All subjects had lumbar spine magnetic resonance (MR) imaging and dual- energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) spine BMD studies, and a subset of general subjects had additional hip BMD measurements. On T2-weighted MR images, Pfirrmann score was used to evaluate the degree of lumbar disc degeneration and facet joint osteoarthritis was assessed as none, slight-moderate, and severe. Regression analyses were used to examine the associations between lumbar and hip BMD and disc degeneration, adjusting for age, gender, body mass index (BMI), lumbar region, and facet joint osteoarthritis. Greater facet joint osteoarthritis was associated with greater spine BMD (P < 0.01) in both patients and general subjects. For general subjects, greater spine BMD was associated with severe disc degeneration, controlling for age, gender, BMI, and lumbar region. When facet joint osteoarthritis entered the regression model, however, greater spine BMD was associated with greater facet joint osteoarthritis (P < 0.01) but not greater disc degeneration (P > 0.05). No statistical association was observed between spine BMD and lumbar disc degeneration in patients with back disorders (P > 0.05), and between hip BMD and disc degeneration in general subjects (P > 0.05). BMD may not be a risk factor for lumbar disc degeneration in Chinese. Facet joint osteoarthritis inflates DXA spine BMD

  13. Statistical learning of action: the role of conditional probability.

    PubMed

    Meyer, Meredith; Baldwin, Dare

    2011-12-01

    Identification of distinct units within a continuous flow of human action is fundamental to action processing. Such segmentation may rest in part on statistical learning. In a series of four experiments, we examined what types of statistics people can use to segment a continuous stream involving many brief, goal-directed action elements. The results of Experiment 1 showed no evidence for sensitivity to conditional probability, whereas Experiment 2 displayed learning based on joint probability. In Experiment 3, we demonstrated that additional exposure to the input failed to engender sensitivity to conditional probability. However, the results of Experiment 4 showed that a subset of adults-namely, those more successful at identifying actions that had been seen more frequently than comparison sequences-were also successful at learning conditional-probability statistics. These experiments help to clarify the mechanisms subserving processing of intentional action, and they highlight important differences from, as well as similarities to, prior studies of statistical learning in other domains, including language.

  14. A short walk in quantum probability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hudson, Robin

    2018-04-01

    This is a personal survey of aspects of quantum probability related to the Heisenberg commutation relation for canonical pairs. Using the failure, in general, of non-negativity of the Wigner distribution for canonical pairs to motivate a more satisfactory quantum notion of joint distribution, we visit a central limit theorem for such pairs and a resulting family of quantum planar Brownian motions which deform the classical planar Brownian motion, together with a corresponding family of quantum stochastic areas. This article is part of the themed issue `Hilbert's sixth problem'.

  15. A short walk in quantum probability.

    PubMed

    Hudson, Robin

    2018-04-28

    This is a personal survey of aspects of quantum probability related to the Heisenberg commutation relation for canonical pairs. Using the failure, in general, of non-negativity of the Wigner distribution for canonical pairs to motivate a more satisfactory quantum notion of joint distribution, we visit a central limit theorem for such pairs and a resulting family of quantum planar Brownian motions which deform the classical planar Brownian motion, together with a corresponding family of quantum stochastic areas.This article is part of the themed issue 'Hilbert's sixth problem'. © 2018 The Author(s).

  16. Height probabilities in the Abelian sandpile model on the generalized finite Bethe lattice

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Haiyan; Zhang, Fuji

    2013-08-01

    In this paper, we study the sandpile model on the generalized finite Bethe lattice with a particular boundary condition. Using a combinatorial method, we give the exact expressions for all single-site probabilities and some two-site joint probabilities. As a by-product, we prove that the height probabilities of bulk vertices are all the same for the Bethe lattice with certain given boundary condition, which was found from numerical evidence by Grassberger and Manna ["Some more sandpiles," J. Phys. (France) 51, 1077-1098 (1990)], 10.1051/jphys:0199000510110107700 but without a proof.

  17. Joint constraints on galaxy bias and σ{sub 8} through the N-pdf of the galaxy number density

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Arnalte-Mur, Pablo; Martínez, Vicent J.; Vielva, Patricio

    We present a full description of the N-probability density function of the galaxy number density fluctuations. This N-pdf is given in terms, on the one hand, of the cold dark matter correlations and, on the other hand, of the galaxy bias parameter. The method relies on the assumption commonly adopted that the dark matter density fluctuations follow a local non-linear transformation of the initial energy density perturbations. The N-pdf of the galaxy number density fluctuations allows for an optimal estimation of the bias parameter (e.g., via maximum-likelihood estimation, or Bayesian inference if there exists any a priori information on themore » bias parameter), and of those parameters defining the dark matter correlations, in particular its amplitude (σ{sub 8}). It also provides the proper framework to perform model selection between two competitive hypotheses. The parameters estimation capabilities of the N-pdf are proved by SDSS-like simulations (both, ideal log-normal simulations and mocks obtained from Las Damas simulations), showing that our estimator is unbiased. We apply our formalism to the 7th release of the SDSS main sample (for a volume-limited subset with absolute magnitudes M{sub r} ≤ −20). We obtain b-circumflex  = 1.193 ± 0.074 and σ-bar{sub 8} = 0.862 ± 0.080, for galaxy number density fluctuations in cells of the size of 30h{sup −1}Mpc. Different model selection criteria show that galaxy biasing is clearly favoured.« less

  18. Testing joint inversion techniques of gravity data and cosmic ray muon flux at a well-characterized site for use in the detection of subsurface density structures beneath volcanoes.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cosburn, K.; Roy, M.; Rowe, C. A.; Guardincerri, E.

    2017-12-01

    Obtaining accurate static and time-dependent shallow subsurface density structure beneath volcanic, hydrogeologic, and tectonic targets can help illuminate active processes of fluid flow and magma transport. A limitation of using surface gravity measurements for such imaging is that these observations are vastly underdetermined and non-unique. In order to hone in on a more accurate solution, other data sets are needed to provide constraints, typically seismic or borehole observations. The spatial resolution of these techniques, however, is relatively poor, and a novel solution to this problem in recent years has been to use attenuation of the cosmic ray muon flux, which provides an independent constraint on density. In this study we present a joint inversion of gravity and cosmic ray muon flux observations to infer the density structure of a target rock volume at a well-characterized site near Los Alamos, New Mexico, USA. We investigate the shallow structure of a mesa formed by the Quaternary ash-flow tuffs on the Pajarito Plateau, flanking the Jemez volcano in New Mexico. Gravity measurements were made using a Lacoste and Romberg D meter on the surface of the mesa and inside a tunnel beneath the mesa. Muon flux measurements were also made at the mesa surface and at various points within the same tunnel using a muon detector having an acceptance region of 45 degrees from the vertical and a track resolution of several milliradians. We expect the combination of muon and gravity data to provide us with enhanced resolution as well as the ability to sense deeper structures in our region of interest. We use Bayesian joint inversion techniques on the gravity-muon dataset to test these ideas, building upon previous work using gravity inversion alone to resolve density structure in our study area. Both the regional geology and geometry of our study area is well-known and we assess the inferred density structure from our gravity-muon joint inversion within this known

  19. Joint probabilities of extreme precipitation and wind gusts in Germany

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    von Waldow, H.; Martius, O.

    2012-04-01

    Extreme meteorological events such as storms, heavy rain, floods, droughts and heat waves can have devastating consequences for human health, infrastructure and ecosystems. Concomitantly occurring extreme events might interact synergistically to produce a particularly hazardous impact. The joint occurrence of droughts and heat waves, for example, can have a very different impact on human health and ecosystems both in quantity and quality, than just one of the two extreme events. The co-occurrence of certain types of extreme events is plausible from physical and dynamical considerations, for example heavy precipitation and high wind speeds in the pathway of strong extratropical cyclones. The winter storm Kyrill not only caused wind gust speeds well in excess of 30 m/s across Europe, but also brought 24 h precipitation sums greater than the mean January accumulations in some regions. However, the existence of such compound risks is currently not accounted for by insurance companies, who assume independence of extreme weather events to calculate their premiums. While there are established statistical methods to model the extremes of univariate meteorological variables, the modelling of multidimensional extremes calls for an approach that is tailored to the specific problem at hand. A first step involves defining extreme bivariate wind/precipitation events. Because precipitation and wind gusts caused by the same cyclone or convective cell do not occur at exactly the same location and at the same time, it is necessary to find a sound definition of "extreme compound event" for this case. We present a data driven method to choose appropriate time and space intervals that define "concomitance" for wind and precipitation extremes. Based on station data of wind speed and gridded precipitation data, we arrive at time and space intervals that compare well with the typical time and space scales of extratropical cyclones, i.e. a maximum time lag of 1 day and a maximum distance

  20. Ultrasonic scanning system for in-place inspection of brazed tube joints

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Haynes, J. L.; Wages, C. G.; Haralson, H. S. (Inventor)

    1973-01-01

    A miniaturized ultrasonic scanning system for nondestructive in-place, non-immersion testing of brazed joints in stainless-steel tubing is described. The system is capable of scanning brazed tube joints, with limited clearance access, in 1/4 through 5/8 inch union, tee, elbow and cross configurations. The system has the capability to detect defective conditions now associated with material density changes in addition to those which are depended upon density variations. The system includes a miniaturized scanning head assembly that fits around a tube joint and rotates the transducer around and down the joint in a continuous spiral motion. The C-scan recorder is similar in principle to conventional models except that it was specially designed to track the continuous spiral scan of the tube joint. The scanner and recorder can be operated with most commercially available ultrasonic flaw detectors.

  1. Comparison between measured and computed magnetic flux density distribution of simulated transformer core joints assembled from grain-oriented and non-oriented electrical steel

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shahrouzi, Hamid; Moses, Anthony J.; Anderson, Philip I.; Li, Guobao; Hu, Zhuochao

    2018-04-01

    The flux distribution in an overlapped linear joint constructed in the central region of an Epstein Square was studied experimentally and results compared with those obtained using a computational magnetic field solver. High permeability grain-oriented (GO) and low permeability non-oriented (NO) electrical steels were compared at a nominal core flux density of 1.60 T at 50 Hz. It was found that the experimental results only agreed well at flux densities at which the reluctance of different paths of the flux are similar. Also it was revealed that the flux becomes more uniform when the working point of the electrical steel is close to the knee point of the B-H curve of the steel.

  2. Naive Probability: Model-Based Estimates of Unique Events.

    PubMed

    Khemlani, Sangeet S; Lotstein, Max; Johnson-Laird, Philip N

    2015-08-01

    We describe a dual-process theory of how individuals estimate the probabilities of unique events, such as Hillary Clinton becoming U.S. President. It postulates that uncertainty is a guide to improbability. In its computer implementation, an intuitive system 1 simulates evidence in mental models and forms analog non-numerical representations of the magnitude of degrees of belief. This system has minimal computational power and combines evidence using a small repertoire of primitive operations. It resolves the uncertainty of divergent evidence for single events, for conjunctions of events, and for inclusive disjunctions of events, by taking a primitive average of non-numerical probabilities. It computes conditional probabilities in a tractable way, treating the given event as evidence that may be relevant to the probability of the dependent event. A deliberative system 2 maps the resulting representations into numerical probabilities. With access to working memory, it carries out arithmetical operations in combining numerical estimates. Experiments corroborated the theory's predictions. Participants concurred in estimates of real possibilities. They violated the complete joint probability distribution in the predicted ways, when they made estimates about conjunctions: P(A), P(B), P(A and B), disjunctions: P(A), P(B), P(A or B or both), and conditional probabilities P(A), P(B), P(B|A). They were faster to estimate the probabilities of compound propositions when they had already estimated the probabilities of each of their components. We discuss the implications of these results for theories of probabilistic reasoning. © 2014 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  3. A concise evidence-based physical examination for diagnosis of acromioclavicular joint pathology: a systematic review.

    PubMed

    Krill, Michael K; Rosas, Samuel; Kwon, KiHyun; Dakkak, Andrew; Nwachukwu, Benedict U; McCormick, Frank

    2018-02-01

    The clinical examination of the shoulder joint is an undervalued diagnostic tool for evaluating acromioclavicular (AC) joint pathology. Applying evidence-based clinical tests enables providers to make an accurate diagnosis and minimize costly imaging procedures and potential delays in care. The purpose of this study was to create a decision tree analysis enabling simple and accurate diagnosis of AC joint pathology. A systematic review of the Medline, Ovid and Cochrane Review databases was performed to identify level one and two diagnostic studies evaluating clinical tests for AC joint pathology. Individual test characteristics were combined in series and in parallel to improve sensitivities and specificities. A secondary analysis utilized subjective pre-test probabilities to create a clinical decision tree algorithm with post-test probabilities. The optimal special test combination to screen and confirm AC joint pathology combined Paxinos sign and O'Brien's Test, with a specificity of 95.8% when performed in series; whereas, Paxinos sign and Hawkins-Kennedy Test demonstrated a sensitivity of 93.7% when performed in parallel. Paxinos sign and O'Brien's Test demonstrated the greatest positive likelihood ratio (2.71); whereas, Paxinos sign and Hawkins-Kennedy Test reported the lowest negative likelihood ratio (0.35). No combination of special tests performed in series or in parallel creates more than a small impact on post-test probabilities to screen or confirm AC joint pathology. Paxinos sign and O'Brien's Test is the only special test combination that has a small and sometimes important impact when used both in series and in parallel. Physical examination testing is not beneficial for diagnosis of AC joint pathology when pretest probability is unequivocal. In these instances, it is of benefit to proceed with procedural tests to evaluate AC joint pathology. Ultrasound-guided corticosteroid injections are diagnostic and therapeutic. An ultrasound-guided AC joint

  4. Does probability of occurrence relate to population dynamics?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thuiller, Wilfried; Münkemüller, Tamara; Schiffers, Katja H.; Georges, Damien; Dullinger, Stefan; Eckhart, Vincent M.; Edwards, Thomas C.; Gravel, Dominique; Kunstler, Georges; Merow, Cory; Moore, Kara; Piedallu, Christian; Vissault, Steve; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Zurell, Damaris; Schurr, Frank M.

    2014-01-01

    Hutchinson defined species' realized niche as the set of environmental conditions in which populations can persist in the presence of competitors. In terms of demography, the realized niche corresponds to the environments where the intrinsic growth rate (r) of populations is positive. Observed species occurrences should reflect the realized niche when additional processes like dispersal and local extinction lags do not have overwhelming effects. Despite the foundational nature of these ideas, quantitative assessments of the relationship between range-wide demographic performance and occurrence probability have not been made. This assessment is needed both to improve our conceptual understanding of species' niches and ranges and to develop reliable mechanistic models of species geographic distributions that incorporate demography and species interactions.The objective of this study is to analyse how demographic parameters (intrinsic growth rate r and carrying capacity K ) and population density (N ) relate to occurrence probability (Pocc ). We hypothesized that these relationships vary with species' competitive ability. Demographic parameters, density, and occurrence probability were estimated for 108 tree species from four temperate forest inventory surveys (Québec, western USA, France and Switzerland). We used published information of shade tolerance as indicators of light competition strategy, assuming that high tolerance denotes high competitive capacity in stable forest environments.Interestingly, relationships between demographic parameters and occurrence probability did not vary substantially across degrees of shade tolerance and regions. Although they were influenced by the uncertainty in the estimation of the demographic parameters, we found that r was generally negatively correlated with Pocc, while N, and for most regions K, was generally positively correlated with Pocc. Thus, in temperate forest trees the regions of highest occurrence

  5. Joint modeling of longitudinal data and discrete-time survival outcome.

    PubMed

    Qiu, Feiyou; Stein, Catherine M; Elston, Robert C

    2016-08-01

    A predictive joint shared parameter model is proposed for discrete time-to-event and longitudinal data. A discrete survival model with frailty and a generalized linear mixed model for the longitudinal data are joined to predict the probability of events. This joint model focuses on predicting discrete time-to-event outcome, taking advantage of repeated measurements. We show that the probability of an event in a time window can be more precisely predicted by incorporating the longitudinal measurements. The model was investigated by comparison with a two-step model and a discrete-time survival model. Results from both a study on the occurrence of tuberculosis and simulated data show that the joint model is superior to the other models in discrimination ability, especially as the latent variables related to both survival times and the longitudinal measurements depart from 0. © The Author(s) 2013.

  6. Domestic wells have high probability of pumping septic tank leachate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Horn, J. E.; Harter, T.

    2011-06-01

    Onsite wastewater treatment systems such as septic systems are common in rural and semi-rural areas around the world; in the US, about 25-30 % of households are served by a septic system and a private drinking water well. Site-specific conditions and local groundwater flow are often ignored when installing septic systems and wells. Particularly in areas with small lots, thus a high septic system density, these typically shallow wells are prone to contamination by septic system leachate. Typically, mass balance approaches are used to determine a maximum septic system density that would prevent contamination of the aquifer. In this study, we estimate the probability of a well pumping partially septic system leachate. A detailed groundwater and transport model is used to calculate the capture zone of a typical drinking water well. A spatial probability analysis is performed to assess the probability that a capture zone overlaps with a septic system drainfield depending on aquifer properties, lot and drainfield size. We show that a high septic system density poses a high probability of pumping septic system leachate. The hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer has a strong influence on the intersection probability. We conclude that mass balances calculations applied on a regional scale underestimate the contamination risk of individual drinking water wells by septic systems. This is particularly relevant for contaminants released at high concentrations, for substances which experience limited attenuation, and those being harmful even in low concentrations.

  7. Trapezium Bone Density-A Comparison of Measurements by DXA and CT.

    PubMed

    Breddam Mosegaard, Sebastian; Breddam Mosegaard, Kamille; Bouteldja, Nadia; Bæk Hansen, Torben; Stilling, Maiken

    2018-01-18

    Bone density may influence the primary fixation of cementless implants, and poor bone density may increase the risk of implant failure. Before deciding on using total joint replacement as treatment in osteoarthritis of the trapeziometacarpal joint, it is valuable to determine the trapezium bone density. The aim of this study was to: (1) determine the correlation between measurements of bone mineral density of the trapezium obtained by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) scans by a circumference method and a new inner-ellipse method; and (2) to compare those to measurements of bone density obtained by computerized tomography (CT)-scans in Hounsfield units (HU). We included 71 hands from 59 patients with a mean age of 59 years (43-77). All patients had Eaton-Glickel stage II-IV trapeziometacarpal (TM) joint osteoarthritis, were under evaluation for trapeziometacarpal total joint replacement, and underwent DXA and CT wrist scans. There was an excellent correlation (r = 0.94) between DXA bone mineral density measures using the circumference and the inner-ellipse method. There was a moderate correlation between bone density measures obtained by DXA- and CT-scans with (r = 0.49) for the circumference method, and (r = 0.55) for the inner-ellipse method. DXA may be used in pre-operative evaluation of the trapezium bone quality, and the simpler DXA inner-ellipse measurement method can replace the DXA circumference method in estimation of bone density of the trapezium.

  8. Probability density function of the intensity of a laser beam propagating in the maritime environment.

    PubMed

    Korotkova, Olga; Avramov-Zamurovic, Svetlana; Malek-Madani, Reza; Nelson, Charles

    2011-10-10

    A number of field experiments measuring the fluctuating intensity of a laser beam propagating along horizontal paths in the maritime environment is performed over sub-kilometer distances at the United States Naval Academy. Both above the ground and over the water links are explored. Two different detection schemes, one photographing the beam on a white board, and the other capturing the beam directly using a ccd sensor, gave consistent results. The probability density function (pdf) of the fluctuating intensity is reconstructed with the help of two theoretical models: the Gamma-Gamma and the Gamma-Laguerre, and compared with the intensity's histograms. It is found that the on-ground experimental results are in good agreement with theoretical predictions. The results obtained above the water paths lead to appreciable discrepancies, especially in the case of the Gamma-Gamma model. These discrepancies are attributed to the presence of the various scatterers along the path of the beam, such as water droplets, aerosols and other airborne particles. Our paper's main contribution is providing a methodology for computing the pdf function of the laser beam intensity in the maritime environment using field measurements.

  9. The Probable Explanation for the Low Friction of Natural Joints.

    PubMed

    Pawlak, Zenon; Urbaniak, Wieslaw; Hagner-Derengowska, Magdalena; Hagner, Wojciech

    2015-04-01

    The surface of an articular cartilage, coated with phospholipid (PL) bilayers, plays an important role in its lubrication and movement. Intact (normal) and depleted surfaces of the joint were modelled and the pH influence on the surface interfacial energy, wettability and friction were investigated. In the experiments, the deterioration of the PL bilayer was controlled by its wettability and the applied friction. The surrounding fluid of an undamaged articular cartilage, the synovial fluid, has a pH value of approximately 7.4. Buffer solutions were formulated to represent the synovial fluid with various pH values. It was found that the surface interfacial energy was stabilised at its lowest values when the pH varied between 6.5 and 9.5. These results suggested that as the PL bilayers deteriorated, the hydration repulsion mechanism became less effective as friction increased. The decreased number of bilayers changed the wettability and lowered PL lubricant properties.

  10. A Non-Parametric Probability Density Estimator and Some Applications.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1984-05-01

    distributions, which are assumed to be representa- tive of platykurtic , mesokurtic, and leptokurtic distribu- tions in general. The dissertation is... platykurtic distributions. Consider, for example, the uniform distribution shown in Figure 4. 34 o . 1., Figure 4 -Sensitivity to Support Estimation The...results of the density function comparisons indicate that the new estimator is clearly -Z superior for platykurtic distributions, equal to the best 59

  11. Probability mass first flush evaluation for combined sewer discharges.

    PubMed

    Park, Inhyeok; Kim, Hongmyeong; Chae, Soo-Kwon; Ha, Sungryong

    2010-01-01

    The Korea government has put in a lot of effort to construct sanitation facilities for controlling non-point source pollution. The first flush phenomenon is a prime example of such pollution. However, to date, several serious problems have arisen in the operation and treatment effectiveness of these facilities due to unsuitable design flow volumes and pollution loads. It is difficult to assess the optimal flow volume and pollution mass when considering both monetary and temporal limitations. The objective of this article was to characterize the discharge of storm runoff pollution from urban catchments in Korea and to estimate the probability of mass first flush (MFFn) using the storm water management model and probability density functions. As a result of the review of gauged storms for the representative using probability density function with rainfall volumes during the last two years, all the gauged storms were found to be valid representative precipitation. Both the observed MFFn and probability MFFn in BE-1 denoted similarly large magnitudes of first flush with roughly 40% of the total pollution mass contained in the first 20% of the runoff. In the case of BE-2, however, there were significant difference between the observed MFFn and probability MFFn.

  12. Optimizing Probability of Detection Point Estimate Demonstration

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Koshti, Ajay M.

    2017-01-01

    Probability of detection (POD) analysis is used in assessing reliably detectable flaw size in nondestructive evaluation (NDE). MIL-HDBK-18231and associated mh18232POD software gives most common methods of POD analysis. Real flaws such as cracks and crack-like flaws are desired to be detected using these NDE methods. A reliably detectable crack size is required for safe life analysis of fracture critical parts. The paper provides discussion on optimizing probability of detection (POD) demonstration experiments using Point Estimate Method. POD Point estimate method is used by NASA for qualifying special NDE procedures. The point estimate method uses binomial distribution for probability density. Normally, a set of 29 flaws of same size within some tolerance are used in the demonstration. The optimization is performed to provide acceptable value for probability of passing demonstration (PPD) and achieving acceptable value for probability of false (POF) calls while keeping the flaw sizes in the set as small as possible.

  13. Predicting Ligand Binding Sites on Protein Surfaces by 3-Dimensional Probability Density Distributions of Interacting Atoms

    PubMed Central

    Jian, Jhih-Wei; Elumalai, Pavadai; Pitti, Thejkiran; Wu, Chih Yuan; Tsai, Keng-Chang; Chang, Jeng-Yih; Peng, Hung-Pin; Yang, An-Suei

    2016-01-01

    Predicting ligand binding sites (LBSs) on protein structures, which are obtained either from experimental or computational methods, is a useful first step in functional annotation or structure-based drug design for the protein structures. In this work, the structure-based machine learning algorithm ISMBLab-LIG was developed to predict LBSs on protein surfaces with input attributes derived from the three-dimensional probability density maps of interacting atoms, which were reconstructed on the query protein surfaces and were relatively insensitive to local conformational variations of the tentative ligand binding sites. The prediction accuracy of the ISMBLab-LIG predictors is comparable to that of the best LBS predictors benchmarked on several well-established testing datasets. More importantly, the ISMBLab-LIG algorithm has substantial tolerance to the prediction uncertainties of computationally derived protein structure models. As such, the method is particularly useful for predicting LBSs not only on experimental protein structures without known LBS templates in the database but also on computationally predicted model protein structures with structural uncertainties in the tentative ligand binding sites. PMID:27513851

  14. An analytical model for regular respiratory signals derived from the probability density function of Rayleigh distribution.

    PubMed

    Li, Xin; Li, Ye

    2015-01-01

    Regular respiratory signals (RRSs) acquired with physiological sensing systems (e.g., the life-detection radar system) can be used to locate survivors trapped in debris in disaster rescue, or predict the breathing motion to allow beam delivery under free breathing conditions in external beam radiotherapy. Among the existing analytical models for RRSs, the harmonic-based random model (HRM) is shown to be the most accurate, which, however, is found to be subject to considerable error if the RRS has a slowly descending end-of-exhale (EOE) phase. The defect of the HRM motivates us to construct a more accurate analytical model for the RRS. In this paper, we derive a new analytical RRS model from the probability density function of Rayleigh distribution. We evaluate the derived RRS model by using it to fit a real-life RRS in the sense of least squares, and the evaluation result shows that, our presented model exhibits lower error and fits the slowly descending EOE phases of the real-life RRS better than the HRM.

  15. Functionally Graded Adhesives for Composite Joints

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stapleton, Scott E.; Waas, Anthony M.; Arnold, Steven M.

    2012-01-01

    Adhesives with functionally graded material properties are being considered for use in adhesively bonded joints to reduce the peel stress concentrations located near adherend discontinuities. Several practical concerns impede the actual use of such adhesives. These include increased manufacturing complications, alterations to the grading due to adhesive flow during manufacturing, and whether changing the loading conditions significantly impact the effectiveness of the grading. An analytical study is conducted to address these three concerns. An enhanced joint finite element, which uses an analytical formulation to obtain exact shape functions, is used to model the joint. Furthermore, proof of concept testing is conducted to show the potential advantages of functionally graded adhesives. In this study, grading is achieved by strategically placing glass beads within the adhesive layer at different densities along the joint.

  16. Farm Management, Environment, and Weather Factors Jointly Affect the Probability of Spinach Contamination by Generic Escherichia coli at the Preharvest Stage

    PubMed Central

    Navratil, Sarah; Gregory, Ashley; Bauer, Arin; Srinath, Indumathi; Szonyi, Barbara; Nightingale, Kendra; Anciso, Juan; Jun, Mikyoung; Han, Daikwon; Lawhon, Sara; Ivanek, Renata

    2014-01-01

    The National Resources Information (NRI) databases provide underutilized information on the local farm conditions that may predict microbial contamination of leafy greens at preharvest. Our objective was to identify NRI weather and landscape factors affecting spinach contamination with generic Escherichia coli individually and jointly with farm management and environmental factors. For each of the 955 georeferenced spinach samples (including 63 positive samples) collected between 2010 and 2012 on 12 farms in Colorado and Texas, we extracted variables describing the local weather (ambient temperature, precipitation, and wind speed) and landscape (soil characteristics and proximity to roads and water bodies) from NRI databases. Variables describing farm management and environment were obtained from a survey of the enrolled farms. The variables were evaluated using a mixed-effect logistic regression model with random effects for farm and date. The model identified precipitation as a single NRI predictor of spinach contamination with generic E. coli, indicating that the contamination probability increases with an increasing mean amount of rain (mm) in the past 29 days (odds ratio [OR] = 3.5). The model also identified the farm's hygiene practices as a protective factor (OR = 0.06) and manure application (OR = 52.2) and state (OR = 108.1) as risk factors. In cross-validation, the model showed a solid predictive performance, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of 81%. Overall, the findings highlighted the utility of NRI precipitation data in predicting contamination and demonstrated that farm management, environment, and weather factors should be considered jointly in development of good agricultural practices and measures to reduce produce contamination. PMID:24509926

  17. Steady-state probability density function of the phase error for a DPLL with an integrate-and-dump device

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Simon, M.; Mileant, A.

    1986-01-01

    The steady-state behavior of a particular type of digital phase-locked loop (DPLL) with an integrate-and-dump circuit following the phase detector is characterized in terms of the probability density function (pdf) of the phase error in the loop. Although the loop is entirely digital from an implementation standpoint, it operates at two extremely different sampling rates. In particular, the combination of a phase detector and an integrate-and-dump circuit operates at a very high rate whereas the loop update rate is very slow by comparison. Because of this dichotomy, the loop can be analyzed by hybrid analog/digital (s/z domain) techniques. The loop is modeled in such a general fashion that previous analyses of the Real-Time Combiner (RTC), Subcarrier Demodulator Assembly (SDA), and Symbol Synchronization Assembly (SSA) fall out as special cases.

  18. DCMDN: Deep Convolutional Mixture Density Network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    D'Isanto, Antonio; Polsterer, Kai Lars

    2017-09-01

    Deep Convolutional Mixture Density Network (DCMDN) estimates probabilistic photometric redshift directly from multi-band imaging data by combining a version of a deep convolutional network with a mixture density network. The estimates are expressed as Gaussian mixture models representing the probability density functions (PDFs) in the redshift space. In addition to the traditional scores, the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) and the probability integral transform (PIT) are applied as performance criteria. DCMDN is able to predict redshift PDFs independently from the type of source, e.g. galaxies, quasars or stars and renders pre-classification of objects and feature extraction unnecessary; the method is extremely general and allows the solving of any kind of probabilistic regression problems based on imaging data, such as estimating metallicity or star formation rate in galaxies.

  19. Anticipating abrupt shifts in temporal evolution of probability of eruption

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rohmer, J.; Loschetter, A.

    2016-04-01

    Estimating the probability of eruption by jointly accounting for different sources of monitoring parameters over time is a key component for volcano risk management. In the present study, we are interested in the transition from a state of low-to-moderate probability value to a state of high probability value. By using the data of MESIMEX exercise at the Vesuvius volcano, we investigated the potential for time-varying indicators related to the correlation structure or to the variability of the probability time series for detecting in advance this critical transition. We found that changes in the power spectra and in the standard deviation estimated over a rolling time window both present an abrupt increase, which marks the approaching shift. Our numerical experiments revealed that the transition from an eruption probability of 10-15% to > 70% could be identified up to 1-3 h in advance. This additional lead time could be useful to place different key services (e.g., emergency services for vulnerable groups, commandeering additional transportation means, etc.) on a higher level of alert before the actual call for evacuation.

  20. On recontamination and directional-bias problems in Monte Carlo simulation of PDF turbulence models. [probability density function

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hsu, Andrew T.

    1992-01-01

    Turbulent combustion can not be simulated adequately by conventional moment closure turbulent models. The probability density function (PDF) method offers an attractive alternative: in a PDF model, the chemical source terms are closed and do not require additional models. Because the number of computational operations grows only linearly in the Monte Carlo scheme, it is chosen over finite differencing schemes. A grid dependent Monte Carlo scheme following J.Y. Chen and W. Kollmann has been studied in the present work. It was found that in order to conserve the mass fractions absolutely, one needs to add further restrictions to the scheme, namely alpha(sub j) + gamma(sub j) = alpha(sub j - 1) + gamma(sub j + 1). A new algorithm was devised that satisfied this restriction in the case of pure diffusion or uniform flow problems. Using examples, it is shown that absolute conservation can be achieved. Although for non-uniform flows absolute conservation seems impossible, the present scheme has reduced the error considerably.

  1. HABITAT ASSESSMENT USING A RANDOM PROBABILITY BASED SAMPLING DESIGN: ESCAMBIA RIVER DELTA, FLORIDA

    EPA Science Inventory

    Smith, Lisa M., Darrin D. Dantin and Steve Jordan. In press. Habitat Assessment Using a Random Probability Based Sampling Design: Escambia River Delta, Florida (Abstract). To be presented at the SWS/GERS Fall Joint Society Meeting: Communication and Collaboration: Coastal Systems...

  2. Probability density functions for use when calculating standardised drought indices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Svensson, Cecilia; Prosdocimi, Ilaria; Hannaford, Jamie

    2015-04-01

    Time series of drought indices like the standardised precipitation index (SPI) and standardised flow index (SFI) require a statistical probability density function to be fitted to the observed (generally monthly) precipitation and river flow data. Once fitted, the quantiles are transformed to a Normal distribution with mean = 0 and standard deviation = 1. These transformed data are the SPI/SFI, which are widely used in drought studies, including for drought monitoring and early warning applications. Different distributions were fitted to rainfall and river flow data accumulated over 1, 3, 6 and 12 months for 121 catchments in the United Kingdom. These catchments represent a range of catchment characteristics in a mid-latitude climate. Both rainfall and river flow data have a lower bound at 0, as rains and flows cannot be negative. Their empirical distributions also tend to have positive skewness, and therefore the Gamma distribution has often been a natural and suitable choice for describing the data statistically. However, after transformation of the data to Normal distributions to obtain the SPIs and SFIs for the 121 catchments, the distributions are rejected in 11% and 19% of cases, respectively, by the Shapiro-Wilk test. Three-parameter distributions traditionally used in hydrological applications, such as the Pearson type 3 for rainfall and the Generalised Logistic and Generalised Extreme Value distributions for river flow, tend to make the transformed data fit better, with rejection rates of 5% or less. However, none of these three-parameter distributions have a lower bound at zero. This means that the lower tail of the fitted distribution may potentially go below zero, which would result in a lower limit to the calculated SPI and SFI values (as observations can never reach into this lower tail of the theoretical distribution). The Tweedie distribution can overcome the problems found when using either the Gamma or the above three-parameter distributions. The

  3. SU-F-T-450: The Investigation of Radiotherapy Quality Assurance and Automatic Treatment Planning Based On the Kernel Density Estimation Method

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Fan, J; Fan, J; Hu, W

    Purpose: To develop a fast automatic algorithm based on the two dimensional kernel density estimation (2D KDE) to predict the dose-volume histogram (DVH) which can be employed for the investigation of radiotherapy quality assurance and automatic treatment planning. Methods: We propose a machine learning method that uses previous treatment plans to predict the DVH. The key to the approach is the framing of DVH in a probabilistic setting. The training consists of estimating, from the patients in the training set, the joint probability distribution of the dose and the predictive features. The joint distribution provides an estimation of the conditionalmore » probability of the dose given the values of the predictive features. For the new patient, the prediction consists of estimating the distribution of the predictive features and marginalizing the conditional probability from the training over this. Integrating the resulting probability distribution for the dose yields an estimation of the DVH. The 2D KDE is implemented to predict the joint probability distribution of the training set and the distribution of the predictive features for the new patient. Two variables, including the signed minimal distance from each OAR (organs at risk) voxel to the target boundary and its opening angle with respect to the origin of voxel coordinate, are considered as the predictive features to represent the OAR-target spatial relationship. The feasibility of our method has been demonstrated with the rectum, breast and head-and-neck cancer cases by comparing the predicted DVHs with the planned ones. Results: The consistent result has been found between these two DVHs for each cancer and the average of relative point-wise differences is about 5% within the clinical acceptable extent. Conclusion: According to the result of this study, our method can be used to predict the clinical acceptable DVH and has ability to evaluate the quality and consistency of the treatment planning.« less

  4. Lithostratigraphic interpretation from joint analysis of seismic tomography and magnetotelluric resistivity models using self-organizing map techniques

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bauer, K.; Muñoz, G.; Moeck, I.

    2012-12-01

    The combined interpretation of different models as derived from seismic tomography and magnetotelluric (MT) inversion represents a more efficient approach to determine the lithology of the subsurface compared with the separate treatment of each discipline. Such models can be developed independently or by application of joint inversion strategies. After the step of model generation using different geophysical methodologies, a joint interpretation work flow includes the following steps: (1) adjustment of a joint earth model based on the adapted, identical model geometry for the different methods, (2) classification of the model components (e.g. model blocks described by a set of geophysical parameters), and (3) re-mapping of the classified rock types to visualise their distribution within the earth model, and petrophysical characterization and interpretation. One possible approach for the classification of multi-parameter models is based on statistical pattern recognition, where different models are combined and translated into probability density functions. Classes of rock types are identified in these methods as isolated clusters with high probability density function values. Such techniques are well-established for the analysis of two-parameter models. Alternatively we apply self-organizing map (SOM) techniques, which have no limitations in the number of parameters to be analysed in the joint interpretation. Our SOM work flow includes (1) generation of a joint earth model described by so-called data vectors, (2) unsupervised learning or training, (3) analysis of the feature map by adopting image processing techniques, and (4) application of the knowledge to derive a lithological model which is based on the different geophysical parameters. We show the usage of the SOM work flow for a synthetic and a real data case study. Both tests rely on three geophysical properties: P velocity and vertical velocity gradient from seismic tomography, and electrical resistivity

  5. Detection probability of EBPSK-MODEM system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yao, Yu; Wu, Lenan

    2016-07-01

    Since the impacting filter-based receiver is able to transform phase modulation into amplitude peak, a simple threshold decision can detect the Extend-Binary Phase Shift Keying (EBPSK) modulated ranging signal in noise environment. In this paper, an analysis of the EBPSK-MODEM system output gives the probability density function for EBPSK modulated signals plus noise. The equation of detection probability (pd) for fluctuating and non-fluctuating targets has been deduced. Also, a comparison of the pd for the EBPSK-MODEM system and pulse radar receiver is made, and some results are plotted. Moreover, the probability curves of such system with several modulation parameters are analysed. When modulation parameter is not smaller than 6, the detection performance of EBPSK-MODEM system is more excellent than traditional radar system. In addition to theoretical considerations, computer simulations are provided for illustrating the performance.

  6. Arthroscopic Management of Scaphoid-Trapezium-Trapezoid Joint Arthritis.

    PubMed

    Pegoli, Loris; Pozzi, Alessandro

    2017-11-01

    Scaphoid-trapezium-trapezoid (STT) joint arthritis is a common condition consisting of pain on the radial side of the wrist and base of the thumb, swelling, and tenderness over the STT joint. Common symptoms are loss of grip strength and thumb function. There are several treatments, from symptomatic conservative treatment to surgical solutions, such as arthrodesis, arthroplasties, and prosthesis implant. The role of arthroscopy has grown and is probably the best treatment of this condition. Advantages of arthroscopic management of STT arthritis are faster recovery, better view of the joint during surgery, and possibility of creating less damage to the capsular and ligamentous structures. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Maximum aposteriori joint source/channel coding

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sayood, Khalid; Gibson, Jerry D.

    1991-01-01

    A maximum aposteriori probability (MAP) approach to joint source/channel coder design is presented in this paper. This method attempts to explore a technique for designing joint source/channel codes, rather than ways of distributing bits between source coders and channel coders. For a nonideal source coder, MAP arguments are used to design a decoder which takes advantage of redundancy in the source coder output to perform error correction. Once the decoder is obtained, it is analyzed with the purpose of obtaining 'desirable properties' of the channel input sequence for improving overall system performance. Finally, an encoder design which incorporates these properties is proposed.

  8. Joint Simultaneous Reconstruction of Regularized Building Superstructures from Low-Density LIDAR Data Using Icp

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wichmann, Andreas; Kada, Martin

    2016-06-01

    There are many applications for 3D city models, e.g., in visualizations, analysis, and simulations; each one requiring a certain level of detail to be effective. The overall trend goes towards including various kinds of anthropogenic and natural objects therein with ever increasing geometric and semantic details. A few years back, the featured 3D building models had only coarse roof geometry. But nowadays, they are expected to include detailed roof superstructures like dormers and chimneys. Several methods have been proposed for the automatic reconstruction of 3D building models from airborne based point clouds. However, they are usually unable to reliably recognize and reconstruct small roof superstructures as these objects are often represented by only few point measurements, especially in low-density point clouds. In this paper, we propose a recognition and reconstruction approach that overcomes this problem by identifying and simultaneously reconstructing regularized superstructures of similar shape. For this purpose, candidate areas for superstructures are detected by taking into account virtual sub-surface points that are assumed to lie on the main roof faces below the measured points. The areas with similar superstructures are detected, extracted, grouped together, and registered to one another with the Iterative Closest Point (ICP) algorithm. As an outcome, the joint point density of each detected group is increased, which helps to recognize the shape of the superstructure more reliably and in more detail. Finally, all instances of each group of superstructures are modeled at once and transformed back to their original position. Because superstructures are reconstructed in groups, symmetries, alignments, and regularities can be enforced in a straight-forward way. The validity of the approach is presented on a number of example buildings from the Vaihingen test data set.

  9. Postfragmentation density function for bacterial aggregates in laminar flow.

    PubMed

    Byrne, Erin; Dzul, Steve; Solomon, Michael; Younger, John; Bortz, David M

    2011-04-01

    The postfragmentation probability density of daughter flocs is one of the least well-understood aspects of modeling flocculation. We use three-dimensional positional data of Klebsiella pneumoniae bacterial flocs in suspension and the knowledge of hydrodynamic properties of a laminar flow field to construct a probability density function of floc volumes after a fragmentation event. We provide computational results which predict that the primary fragmentation mechanism for large flocs is erosion. The postfragmentation probability density function has a strong dependence on the size of the original floc and indicates that most fragmentation events result in clumps of one to three bacteria eroding from the original floc. We also provide numerical evidence that exhaustive fragmentation yields a limiting density inconsistent with the log-normal density predicted in the literature, most likely due to the heterogeneous nature of K. pneumoniae flocs. To support our conclusions, artificial flocs were generated and display similar postfragmentation density and exhaustive fragmentation. ©2011 American Physical Society

  10. Postfragmentation density function for bacterial aggregates in laminar flow

    PubMed Central

    Byrne, Erin; Dzul, Steve; Solomon, Michael; Younger, John

    2014-01-01

    The postfragmentation probability density of daughter flocs is one of the least well-understood aspects of modeling flocculation. We use three-dimensional positional data of Klebsiella pneumoniae bacterial flocs in suspension and the knowledge of hydrodynamic properties of a laminar flow field to construct a probability density function of floc volumes after a fragmentation event. We provide computational results which predict that the primary fragmentation mechanism for large flocs is erosion. The postfragmentation probability density function has a strong dependence on the size of the original floc and indicates that most fragmentation events result in clumps of one to three bacteria eroding from the original floc. We also provide numerical evidence that exhaustive fragmentation yields a limiting density inconsistent with the log-normal density predicted in the literature, most likely due to the heterogeneous nature of K. pneumoniae flocs. To support our conclusions, artificial flocs were generated and display similar postfragmentation density and exhaustive fragmentation. PMID:21599205

  11. Cross Check of NOvA Oscillation Probabilities

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Parke, Stephen J.; Messier, Mark D.

    2018-01-12

    In this note we perform a cross check of the programs used by NOvA to calculate the 3-flavor oscillation probabilities with a independent program using a different method. The comparison is performed at 6 significant figures and the agreement,more » $$|\\Delta P|/P$$ is better than $$10^{-5}$$, as good as can be expected with 6 significant figures. In addition, a simple and accurate alternative method to calculate the oscillation probabilities is outlined and compared in the L/E range and matter density relevant for the NOvA experiment.« less

  12. Domestic wells have high probability of pumping septic tank leachate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bremer, J. E.; Harter, T.

    2012-08-01

    Onsite wastewater treatment systems are common in rural and semi-rural areas around the world; in the US, about 25-30% of households are served by a septic (onsite) wastewater treatment system, and many property owners also operate their own domestic well nearby. Site-specific conditions and local groundwater flow are often ignored when installing septic systems and wells. In areas with small lots (thus high spatial septic system densities), shallow domestic wells are prone to contamination by septic system leachate. Mass balance approaches have been used to determine a maximum septic system density that would prevent contamination of groundwater resources. In this study, a source area model based on detailed groundwater flow and transport modeling is applied for a stochastic analysis of domestic well contamination by septic leachate. Specifically, we determine the probability that a source area overlaps with a septic system drainfield as a function of aquifer properties, septic system density and drainfield size. We show that high spatial septic system density poses a high probability of pumping septic system leachate. The hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer has a strong influence on the intersection probability. We find that mass balance calculations applied on a regional scale underestimate the contamination risk of individual drinking water wells by septic systems. This is particularly relevant for contaminants released at high concentrations, for substances that experience limited attenuation, and those that are harmful even at low concentrations (e.g., pathogens).

  13. Generic dynamical features of quenched interacting quantum systems: Survival probability, density imbalance, and out-of-time-ordered correlator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Torres-Herrera, E. J.; García-García, Antonio M.; Santos, Lea F.

    2018-02-01

    We study numerically and analytically the quench dynamics of isolated many-body quantum systems. Using full random matrices from the Gaussian orthogonal ensemble, we obtain analytical expressions for the evolution of the survival probability, density imbalance, and out-of-time-ordered correlator. They are compared with numerical results for a one-dimensional-disordered model with two-body interactions and shown to bound the decay rate of this realistic system. Power-law decays are seen at intermediate times, and dips below the infinite time averages (correlation holes) occur at long times for all three quantities when the system exhibits level repulsion. The fact that these features are shared by both the random matrix and the realistic disordered model indicates that they are generic to nonintegrable interacting quantum systems out of equilibrium. Assisted by the random matrix analytical results, we propose expressions that describe extremely well the dynamics of the realistic chaotic system at different time scales.

  14. Joint time/frequency-domain inversion of reflection data for seabed geoacoustic profiles and uncertainties.

    PubMed

    Dettmer, Jan; Dosso, Stan E; Holland, Charles W

    2008-03-01

    This paper develops a joint time/frequency-domain inversion for high-resolution single-bounce reflection data, with the potential to resolve fine-scale profiles of sediment velocity, density, and attenuation over small seafloor footprints (approximately 100 m). The approach utilizes sequential Bayesian inversion of time- and frequency-domain reflection data, employing ray-tracing inversion for reflection travel times and a layer-packet stripping method for spherical-wave reflection-coefficient inversion. Posterior credibility intervals from the travel-time inversion are passed on as prior information to the reflection-coefficient inversion. Within the reflection-coefficient inversion, parameter information is passed from one layer packet inversion to the next in terms of marginal probability distributions rotated into principal components, providing an efficient approach to (partially) account for multi-dimensional parameter correlations with one-dimensional, numerical distributions. Quantitative geoacoustic parameter uncertainties are provided by a nonlinear Gibbs sampling approach employing full data error covariance estimation (including nonstationary effects) and accounting for possible biases in travel-time picks. Posterior examination of data residuals shows the importance of including data covariance estimates in the inversion. The joint inversion is applied to data collected on the Malta Plateau during the SCARAB98 experiment.

  15. Demographic models reveal the shape of density dependence for a specialist insect herbivore on variable host plants.

    PubMed

    Miller, Tom E X

    2007-07-01

    1. It is widely accepted that density-dependent processes play an important role in most natural populations. However, persistent challenges in our understanding of density-dependent population dynamics include evaluating the shape of the relationship between density and demographic rates (linear, concave, convex), and identifying extrinsic factors that can mediate this relationship. 2. I studied the population dynamics of the cactus bug Narnia pallidicornis on host plants (Opuntia imbricata) that varied naturally in relative reproductive effort (RRE, the proportion of meristems allocated to reproduction), an important plant quality trait. I manipulated per-plant cactus bug densities, quantified subsequent dynamics, and fit stage-structured models to the experimental data to ask if and how density influences demographic parameters. 3. In the field experiment, I found that populations with variable starting densities quickly converged upon similar growth trajectories. In the model-fitting analyses, the data strongly supported a model that defined the juvenile cactus bug retention parameter (joint probability of surviving and not dispersing) as a nonlinear decreasing function of density. The estimated shape of this relationship shifted from concave to convex with increasing host-plant RRE. 4. The results demonstrate that host-plant traits are critical sources of variation in the strength and shape of density dependence in insects, and highlight the utility of integrated experimental-theoretical approaches for identifying processes underlying patterns of change in natural populations.

  16. Non-Kolmogorovian Approach to the Context-Dependent Systems Breaking the Classical Probability Law

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Asano, Masanari; Basieva, Irina; Khrennikov, Andrei; Ohya, Masanori; Yamato, Ichiro

    2013-07-01

    There exist several phenomena breaking the classical probability laws. The systems related to such phenomena are context-dependent, so that they are adaptive to other systems. In this paper, we present a new mathematical formalism to compute the joint probability distribution for two event-systems by using concepts of the adaptive dynamics and quantum information theory, e.g., quantum channels and liftings. In physics the basic example of the context-dependent phenomena is the famous double-slit experiment. Recently similar examples have been found in biological and psychological sciences. Our approach is an extension of traditional quantum probability theory, and it is general enough to describe aforementioned contextual phenomena outside of quantum physics.

  17. Fusion of Hard and Soft Information in Nonparametric Density Estimation

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-06-10

    and stochastic optimization models, in analysis of simulation output, and when instantiating probability models. We adopt a constrained maximum...particular, density estimation is needed for generation of input densities to simulation and stochastic optimization models, in analysis of simulation output...an essential step in simulation analysis and stochastic optimization is the generation of probability densities for input random variables; see for

  18. PARTS: Probabilistic Alignment for RNA joinT Secondary structure prediction

    PubMed Central

    Harmanci, Arif Ozgun; Sharma, Gaurav; Mathews, David H.

    2008-01-01

    A novel method is presented for joint prediction of alignment and common secondary structures of two RNA sequences. The joint consideration of common secondary structures and alignment is accomplished by structural alignment over a search space defined by the newly introduced motif called matched helical regions. The matched helical region formulation generalizes previously employed constraints for structural alignment and thereby better accommodates the structural variability within RNA families. A probabilistic model based on pseudo free energies obtained from precomputed base pairing and alignment probabilities is utilized for scoring structural alignments. Maximum a posteriori (MAP) common secondary structures, sequence alignment and joint posterior probabilities of base pairing are obtained from the model via a dynamic programming algorithm called PARTS. The advantage of the more general structural alignment of PARTS is seen in secondary structure predictions for the RNase P family. For this family, the PARTS MAP predictions of secondary structures and alignment perform significantly better than prior methods that utilize a more restrictive structural alignment model. For the tRNA and 5S rRNA families, the richer structural alignment model of PARTS does not offer a benefit and the method therefore performs comparably with existing alternatives. For all RNA families studied, the posterior probability estimates obtained from PARTS offer an improvement over posterior probability estimates from a single sequence prediction. When considering the base pairings predicted over a threshold value of confidence, the combination of sensitivity and positive predictive value is superior for PARTS than for the single sequence prediction. PARTS source code is available for download under the GNU public license at http://rna.urmc.rochester.edu. PMID:18304945

  19. Estimating Density and Temperature Dependence of Juvenile Vital Rates Using a Hidden Markov Model

    PubMed Central

    McElderry, Robert M.

    2017-01-01

    Organisms in the wild have cryptic life stages that are sensitive to changing environmental conditions and can be difficult to survey. In this study, I used mark-recapture methods to repeatedly survey Anaea aidea (Nymphalidae) caterpillars in nature, then modeled caterpillar demography as a hidden Markov process to assess if temporal variability in temperature and density influence the survival and growth of A. aidea over time. Individual encounter histories result from the joint likelihood of being alive and observed in a particular stage, and I have included hidden states by separating demography and observations into parallel and independent processes. I constructed a demographic matrix containing the probabilities of all possible fates for each stage, including hidden states, e.g., eggs and pupae. I observed both dead and live caterpillars with high probability. Peak caterpillar abundance attracted multiple predators, and survival of fifth instars declined as per capita predation rate increased through spring. A time lag between predator and prey abundance was likely the cause of improved fifth instar survival estimated at high density. Growth rates showed an increase with temperature, but the preferred model did not include temperature. This work illustrates how state-space models can include unobservable stages and hidden state processes to evaluate how environmental factors influence vital rates of cryptic life stages in the wild. PMID:28505138

  20. Probability distribution and statistical properties of spherically compensated cosmic regions in ΛCDM cosmology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alimi, Jean-Michel; de Fromont, Paul

    2018-04-01

    The statistical properties of cosmic structures are well known to be strong probes for cosmology. In particular, several studies tried to use the cosmic void counting number to obtain tight constrains on dark energy. In this paper, we model the statistical properties of these regions using the CoSphere formalism (de Fromont & Alimi) in both primordial and non-linearly evolved Universe in the standard Λ cold dark matter model. This formalism applies similarly for minima (voids) and maxima (such as DM haloes), which are here considered symmetrically. We first derive the full joint Gaussian distribution of CoSphere's parameters in the Gaussian random field. We recover the results of Bardeen et al. only in the limit where the compensation radius becomes very large, i.e. when the central extremum decouples from its cosmic environment. We compute the probability distribution of the compensation size in this primordial field. We show that this distribution is redshift independent and can be used to model cosmic voids size distribution. We also derive the statistical distribution of the peak parameters introduced by Bardeen et al. and discuss their correlation with the cosmic environment. We show that small central extrema with low density are associated with narrow compensation regions with deep compensation density, while higher central extrema are preferentially located in larger but smoother over/under massive regions.

  1. The World According to de Finetti: On de Finetti's Theory of Probability and Its Application to Quantum Mechanics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berkovitz, Joseph

    Bruno de Finetti is one of the founding fathers of the subjectivist school of probability, where probabilities are interpreted as rational degrees of belief. His work on the relation between the theorems of probability and rationality is among the corner stones of modern subjective probability theory. De Finetti maintained that rationality requires that degrees of belief be coherent, and he argued that the whole of probability theory could be derived from these coherence conditions. De Finetti's interpretation of probability has been highly influential in science. This paper focuses on the application of this interpretation to quantum mechanics. We argue that de Finetti held that the coherence conditions of degrees of belief in events depend on their verifiability. Accordingly, the standard coherence conditions of degrees of belief that are familiar from the literature on subjective probability only apply to degrees of belief in events which could (in principle) be jointly verified; and the coherence conditions of degrees of belief in events that cannot be jointly verified are weaker. While the most obvious explanation of de Finetti's verificationism is the influence of positivism, we argue that it could be motivated by the radical subjectivist and instrumental nature of probability in his interpretation; for as it turns out, in this interpretation it is difficult to make sense of the idea of coherent degrees of belief in, and accordingly probabilities of unverifiable events. We then consider the application of this interpretation to quantum mechanics, concentrating on the Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen experiment and Bell's theorem.

  2. Time-dependent earthquake probabilities

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gomberg, J.; Belardinelli, M.E.; Cocco, M.; Reasenberg, P.

    2005-01-01

    We have attempted to provide a careful examination of a class of approaches for estimating the conditional probability of failure of a single large earthquake, particularly approaches that account for static stress perturbations to tectonic loading as in the approaches of Stein et al. (1997) and Hardebeck (2004). We have loading as in the framework based on a simple, generalized rate change formulation and applied it to these two approaches to show how they relate to one another. We also have attempted to show the connection between models of seismicity rate changes applied to (1) populations of independent faults as in background and aftershock seismicity and (2) changes in estimates of the conditional probability of failures of different members of a the notion of failure rate corresponds to successive failures of different members of a population of faults. The latter application requires specification of some probability distribution (density function of PDF) that describes some population of potential recurrence times. This PDF may reflect our imperfect knowledge of when past earthquakes have occurred on a fault (epistemic uncertainty), the true natural variability in failure times, or some combination of both. We suggest two end-member conceptual single-fault models that may explain natural variability in recurrence times and suggest how they might be distinguished observationally. When viewed deterministically, these single-fault patch models differ significantly in their physical attributes, and when faults are immature, they differ in their responses to stress perturbations. Estimates of conditional failure probabilities effectively integrate over a range of possible deterministic fault models, usually with ranges that correspond to mature faults. Thus conditional failure probability estimates usually should not differ significantly for these models. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

  3. The effect of fixed charge density and cartilage swelling on mechanics of knee joint cartilage during simulated gait.

    PubMed

    Räsänen, Lasse P; Tanska, Petri; Zbýň, Štefan; van Donkelaar, Corrinus C; Trattnig, Siegfried; Nieminen, Miika T; Korhonen, Rami K

    2017-08-16

    The effect of swelling of articular cartilage, caused by the fixed charge density (FCD) of proteoglycans, has not been demonstrated on knee joint mechanics during simulated walking before. In this study, the influence of the depth-wise variation of FCD was investigated on the internal collagen fibril strains and the mechanical response of the knee joint cartilage during gait using finite element (FE) analysis. The FCD distribution of tibial cartilage was implemented from sodium ( 23 Na) MRI into a 3-D FE-model of the knee joint ("Healthy model"). For comparison, models with decreased FCD values were created according to the decrease in FCD associated with the progression of osteoarthritis (OA) ("Early OA" and "Advanced OA" models). In addition, a model without FCD was created ("No FCD" model). The effect of FCD was studied with five different collagen fibril network moduli of cartilage. Using the reference fibril network moduli, the decrease in FCD from "Healthy model" to "Early OA" and "Advanced OA" models resulted in increased axial strains (by +2 and +6%) and decreased fibril strains (by -3 and -13%) throughout the stance, respectively, calculated as mean values through cartilage depth in the tibiofemoral contact regions. Correspondingly, compared to the "Healthy model", the removal of the FCD altogether in "NoFCD model" resulted in increased mean axial strains by +16% and decreased mean fibril strains by -24%. This effect was amplified as the fibril network moduli were decreased by 80% from the reference. Then mean axial strains increased by +6, +19 and +49% and mean fibril strains decreased by -9, -20 and -32%, respectively. Our results suggest that the FCD in articular cartilage has influence on cartilage responses in the knee during walking. Furthermore, the FCD is suggested to have larger impact on cartilage function as the collagen network degenerates e.g. in OA. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. The role of presumed probability density functions in the simulation of nonpremixed turbulent combustion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coclite, A.; Pascazio, G.; De Palma, P.; Cutrone, L.

    2016-07-01

    Flamelet-Progress-Variable (FPV) combustion models allow the evaluation of all thermochemical quantities in a reacting flow by computing only the mixture fraction Z and a progress variable C. When using such a method to predict turbulent combustion in conjunction with a turbulence model, a probability density function (PDF) is required to evaluate statistical averages (e. g., Favre averages) of chemical quantities. The choice of the PDF is a compromise between computational costs and accuracy level. The aim of this paper is to investigate the influence of the PDF choice and its modeling aspects to predict turbulent combustion. Three different models are considered: the standard one, based on the choice of a β-distribution for Z and a Dirac-distribution for C; a model employing a β-distribution for both Z and C; and the third model obtained using a β-distribution for Z and the statistically most likely distribution (SMLD) for C. The standard model, although widely used, does not take into account the interaction between turbulence and chemical kinetics as well as the dependence of the progress variable not only on its mean but also on its variance. The SMLD approach establishes a systematic framework to incorporate informations from an arbitrary number of moments, thus providing an improvement over conventionally employed presumed PDF closure models. The rational behind the choice of the three PDFs is described in some details and the prediction capability of the corresponding models is tested vs. well-known test cases, namely, the Sandia flames, and H2-air supersonic combustion.

  5. Subchondral bone remodeling is related to clinical improvement after joint distraction in the treatment of ankle osteoarthritis

    PubMed Central

    Intema, F.; Thomas, T.P.; Anderson, D.D.; Elkins, J.M.; Brown, T.D.; Amendola, A.; Lafeber, F.P.J.G.; Saltzman, C.L.

    2011-01-01

    Objective In osteoarthritis (OA), subchondral bone changes alter the joint’s mechanical environment and potentially influence progression of cartilage degeneration. Joint distraction as a treatment for OA has been shown to provide pain relief and functional improvement through mechanisms that are not well understood. This study evaluated whether subchondral bone remodeling was associated with clinical improvement in OA patients treated with joint distraction. Method Twenty-six patients with advanced post-traumatic ankle OA were treated with joint distraction for three months using an Ilizarov frame in a referral center. Primary outcome measure was bone density change analyzed on CT scans. Longitudinal, manually segmented CT datasets for a given patient were brought into a common spatial alignment. Changes in bone density (Hounsfield Units (HU), relative to baseline) were calculated at the weight-bearing region, extending subchondrally to a depth of 8 mm. Clinical outcome was assessed using the ankle OA scale. Results Baseline scans demonstrated subchondral sclerosis with local cysts. At one and two years of follow-up, an overall decrease in bone density (−23% and −21%, respectively) was observed. Interestingly, density in originally low-density (cystic) areas increased. Joint distraction resulted in a decrease in pain (from 60 to 35, scale of 100) and functional deficit (from 67 to 36). Improvements in clinical outcomes were best correlated with disappearance of low-density (cystic) areas (r=0.69). Conclusions Treatment of advanced post-traumatic ankle OA with three months of joint distraction resulted in bone density normalization that was associated with clinical improvement. PMID:21324372

  6. WisDOT asphaltic mixture new specifications implementation : field compaction and density.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2016-06-01

    The main research objectives of this study were to evaluate HMA Longitudinal Joint type, method and compaction data to produce specification recommendations that will ensure the highest density longitudinal joint, as well as evaluate and produce a sp...

  7. Probability and possibility-based representations of uncertainty in fault tree analysis.

    PubMed

    Flage, Roger; Baraldi, Piero; Zio, Enrico; Aven, Terje

    2013-01-01

    Expert knowledge is an important source of input to risk analysis. In practice, experts might be reluctant to characterize their knowledge and the related (epistemic) uncertainty using precise probabilities. The theory of possibility allows for imprecision in probability assignments. The associated possibilistic representation of epistemic uncertainty can be combined with, and transformed into, a probabilistic representation; in this article, we show this with reference to a simple fault tree analysis. We apply an integrated (hybrid) probabilistic-possibilistic computational framework for the joint propagation of the epistemic uncertainty on the values of the (limiting relative frequency) probabilities of the basic events of the fault tree, and we use possibility-probability (probability-possibility) transformations for propagating the epistemic uncertainty within purely probabilistic and possibilistic settings. The results of the different approaches (hybrid, probabilistic, and possibilistic) are compared with respect to the representation of uncertainty about the top event (limiting relative frequency) probability. Both the rationale underpinning the approaches and the computational efforts they require are critically examined. We conclude that the approaches relevant in a given setting depend on the purpose of the risk analysis, and that further research is required to make the possibilistic approaches operational in a risk analysis context. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  8. THE VLA-COSMOS SURVEY. IV. DEEP DATA AND JOINT CATALOG

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Schinnerer, E.; Sargent, M. T.; Bondi, M.

    2010-06-15

    In the context of the VLA-COSMOS Deep project, additional VLA A array observations at 1.4 GHz were obtained for the central degree of the COSMOS field and combined with the existing data from the VLA-COSMOS Large project. A newly constructed Deep mosaic with a resolution of 2.''5 was used to search for sources down to 4{sigma} with 1{sigma} {approx} 12 {mu}Jy beam{sup -1} in the central 50' x 50'. This new catalog is combined with the catalog from the Large project (obtained at 1.''5 x 1.''4 resolution) to construct a new Joint catalog. All sources listed in the new Jointmore » catalog have peak flux densities of {>=}5{sigma} at 1.''5 and/or 2.''5 resolution to account for the fact that a significant fraction of sources at these low flux levels are expected to be slightly resolved at 1.''5 resolution. All properties listed in the Joint catalog, such as peak flux density, integrated flux density, and source size, are determined in the 2.''5 resolution Deep image. In addition, the Joint catalog contains 43 newly identified multi-component sources.« less

  9. Traumatic synovitis in a classical guitarist: a study of joint laxity.

    PubMed

    Bird, H A; Wright, V

    1981-04-01

    A classical guitarist performing for at least 5 hours each day developed a traumatic synovitis at the left wrist joint that was first erroneously considered to be rheumatoid arthritis. Comparison with members of the same guitar class suggested that unusual joint laxity of the fingers and wrist, probably inherited from the patient's father, was of more importance in the aetiology of the synovitis than a wide range of movement acquired by regular practice. Hyperextension of the metacarpophalangeal joint of the left index finger, quantified by the hyperextensometer, was less marked in the guitarists than in 100 normal individuals. This may be attributed to greater muscular control of the fingers. Lateral instability in the loaded joint may be the most important factor in the aetiology of traumatic synovitis.

  10. Synchrony in Joint Action Is Directed by Each Participant’s Motor Control System

    PubMed Central

    Noy, Lior; Weiser, Netta; Friedman, Jason

    2017-01-01

    In this work, we ask how the probability of achieving synchrony in joint action is affected by the choice of motion parameters of each individual. We use the mirror game paradigm to study how changes in leader’s motion parameters, specifically frequency and peak velocity, affect the probability of entering the state of co-confidence (CC) motion: a dyadic state of synchronized, smooth and co-predictive motions. In order to systematically study this question, we used a one-person version of the mirror game, where the participant mirrored piece-wise rhythmic movements produced by a computer on a graphics tablet. We systematically varied the frequency and peak velocity of the movements to determine how these parameters affect the likelihood of synchronized joint action. To assess synchrony in the mirror game we used the previously developed marker of co-confident (CC) motions: smooth, jitter-less and synchronized motions indicative of co-predicative control. We found that when mirroring movements with low frequencies (i.e., long duration movements), the participants never showed CC, and as the frequency of the stimuli increased, the probability of observing CC also increased. This finding is discussed in the framework of motor control studies showing an upper limit on the duration of smooth motion. We confirmed the relationship between motion parameters and the probability to perform CC with three sets of data of open-ended two-player mirror games. These findings demonstrate that when performing movements together, there are optimal movement frequencies to use in order to maximize the possibility of entering a state of synchronized joint action. It also shows that the ability to perform synchronized joint action is constrained by the properties of our motor control systems. PMID:28443047

  11. Generalized skew-symmetric interfacial probability distribution in reflectivity and small-angle scattering analysis

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Jiang, Zhang; Chen, Wei

    Generalized skew-symmetric probability density functions are proposed to model asymmetric interfacial density distributions for the parameterization of any arbitrary density profiles in the `effective-density model'. The penetration of the densities into adjacent layers can be selectively controlled and parameterized. A continuous density profile is generated and discretized into many independent slices of very thin thickness with constant density values and sharp interfaces. The discretized profile can be used to calculate reflectivities via Parratt's recursive formula, or small-angle scattering via the concentric onion model that is also developed in this work.

  12. Generalized skew-symmetric interfacial probability distribution in reflectivity and small-angle scattering analysis

    DOE PAGES

    Jiang, Zhang; Chen, Wei

    2017-11-03

    Generalized skew-symmetric probability density functions are proposed to model asymmetric interfacial density distributions for the parameterization of any arbitrary density profiles in the `effective-density model'. The penetration of the densities into adjacent layers can be selectively controlled and parameterized. A continuous density profile is generated and discretized into many independent slices of very thin thickness with constant density values and sharp interfaces. The discretized profile can be used to calculate reflectivities via Parratt's recursive formula, or small-angle scattering via the concentric onion model that is also developed in this work.

  13. Numerical simulation of artificial hip joint motion based on human age factor

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramdhani, Safarudin; Saputra, Eko; Jamari, J.

    2018-05-01

    Artificial hip joint is a prosthesis (synthetic body part) which usually consists of two or more components. Replacement of the hip joint due to the occurrence of arthritis, ordinarily patients aged or older. Numerical simulation models are used to observe the range of motion in the artificial hip joint, the range of motion of joints used as the basis of human age. Finite- element analysis (FEA) is used to calculate stress von mises in motion and observes a probability of prosthetic impingement. FEA uses a three-dimensional nonlinear model and considers the position variation of acetabular liner cups. The result of numerical simulation shows that FEA method can be used to analyze the performance calculation of the artificial hip joint at this time more accurate than conventional method.

  14. Understanding environmental DNA detection probabilities: A case study using a stream-dwelling char Salvelinus fontinalis

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wilcox, Taylor M; Mckelvey, Kevin S.; Young, Michael K.; Sepulveda, Adam; Shepard, Bradley B.; Jane, Stephen F; Whiteley, Andrew R.; Lowe, Winsor H.; Schwartz, Michael K.

    2016-01-01

    Environmental DNA sampling (eDNA) has emerged as a powerful tool for detecting aquatic animals. Previous research suggests that eDNA methods are substantially more sensitive than traditional sampling. However, the factors influencing eDNA detection and the resulting sampling costs are still not well understood. Here we use multiple experiments to derive independent estimates of eDNA production rates and downstream persistence from brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) in streams. We use these estimates to parameterize models comparing the false negative detection rates of eDNA sampling and traditional backpack electrofishing. We find that using the protocols in this study eDNA had reasonable detection probabilities at extremely low animal densities (e.g., probability of detection 0.18 at densities of one fish per stream kilometer) and very high detection probabilities at population-level densities (e.g., probability of detection > 0.99 at densities of ≥ 3 fish per 100 m). This is substantially more sensitive than traditional electrofishing for determining the presence of brook trout and may translate into important cost savings when animals are rare. Our findings are consistent with a growing body of literature showing that eDNA sampling is a powerful tool for the detection of aquatic species, particularly those that are rare and difficult to sample using traditional methods.

  15. Phonotactic Probability Effects in Children Who Stutter

    PubMed Central

    Anderson, Julie D.; Byrd, Courtney T.

    2008-01-01

    Purpose The purpose of this study was to examine the influence of phonotactic probability, the frequency of different sound segments and segment sequences, on the overall fluency with which words are produced by preschool children who stutter (CWS), as well as to determine whether it has an effect on the type of stuttered disfluency produced. Method A 500+ word language sample was obtained from 19 CWS. Each stuttered word was randomly paired with a fluently produced word that closely matched it in grammatical class, word length, familiarity, word and neighborhood frequency, and neighborhood density. Phonotactic probability values were obtained for the stuttered and fluent words from an online database. Results Phonotactic probability did not have a significant influence on the overall susceptibility of words to stuttering, but it did impact the type of stuttered disfluency produced. In specific, single-syllable word repetitions were significantly lower in phonotactic probability than fluently produced words, as well as part-word repetitions and sound prolongations. Conclusions In general, the differential impact of phonotactic probability on the type of stuttering-like disfluency produced by young CWS provides some support for the notion that different disfluency types may originate in the disruption of different levels of processing. PMID:18658056

  16. Time-dependent probability density functions and information geometry in stochastic logistic and Gompertz models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tenkès, Lucille-Marie; Hollerbach, Rainer; Kim, Eun-jin

    2017-12-01

    A probabilistic description is essential for understanding growth processes in non-stationary states. In this paper, we compute time-dependent probability density functions (PDFs) in order to investigate stochastic logistic and Gompertz models, which are two of the most popular growth models. We consider different types of short-correlated multiplicative and additive noise sources and compare the time-dependent PDFs in the two models, elucidating the effects of the additive and multiplicative noises on the form of PDFs. We demonstrate an interesting transition from a unimodal to a bimodal PDF as the multiplicative noise increases for a fixed value of the additive noise. A much weaker (leaky) attractor in the Gompertz model leads to a significant (singular) growth of the population of a very small size. We point out the limitation of using stationary PDFs, mean value and variance in understanding statistical properties of the growth in non-stationary states, highlighting the importance of time-dependent PDFs. We further compare these two models from the perspective of information change that occurs during the growth process. Specifically, we define an infinitesimal distance at any time by comparing two PDFs at times infinitesimally apart and sum these distances in time. The total distance along the trajectory quantifies the total number of different states that the system undergoes in time, and is called the information length. We show that the time-evolution of the two models become more similar when measured in units of the information length and point out the merit of using the information length in unifying and understanding the dynamic evolution of different growth processes.

  17. Quality control/quality assurance testing for joint density and segregation of asphalt mixtures : tech transfer summary.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2013-04-01

    A longitudinal joint is the interface between two adjacent and parallel hot-mix asphalt (HMA) mats. Inadequate joint construction can lead to a location where water can penetrate the pavement layers and reduce the structural support of the underlying...

  18. Compositional cokriging for mapping the probability risk of groundwater contamination by nitrates.

    PubMed

    Pardo-Igúzquiza, Eulogio; Chica-Olmo, Mario; Luque-Espinar, Juan A; Rodríguez-Galiano, Víctor

    2015-11-01

    Contamination by nitrates is an important cause of groundwater pollution and represents a potential risk to human health. Management decisions must be made using probability maps that assess the nitrate concentration potential of exceeding regulatory thresholds. However these maps are obtained with only a small number of sparse monitoring locations where the nitrate concentrations have been measured. It is therefore of great interest to have an efficient methodology for obtaining those probability maps. In this paper, we make use of the fact that the discrete probability density function is a compositional variable. The spatial discrete probability density function is estimated by compositional cokriging. There are several advantages in using this approach: (i) problems of classical indicator cokriging, like estimates outside the interval (0,1) and order relations, are avoided; (ii) secondary variables (e.g. aquifer parameters) can be included in the estimation of the probability maps; (iii) uncertainty maps of the probability maps can be obtained; (iv) finally there are modelling advantages because the variograms and cross-variograms of real variables that do not have the restrictions of indicator variograms and indicator cross-variograms. The methodology was applied to the Vega de Granada aquifer in Southern Spain and the advantages of the compositional cokriging approach were demonstrated. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Estimating The Probability Of Achieving Shortleaf Pine Regeneration At Variable Specified Levels

    Treesearch

    Thomas B. Lynch; Jean Nkouka; Michael M. Huebschmann; James M. Guldin

    2002-01-01

    A model was developed that can be used to estimate the probability of achieving regeneration at a variety of specified stem density levels. The model was fitted to shortleaf pine (Pinus echinata Mill.) regeneration data, and can be used to estimate the probability of achieving desired levels of regeneration between 300 and 700 stems per acre 9-l 0...

  20. Probabilistic Simulation of Progressive Fracture in Bolted-Joint Composite Laminates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Minnetyan, L.; Singhal, S. N.; Chamis, C. C.

    1996-01-01

    This report describes computational methods to probabilistically simulate fracture in bolted composite structures. An innovative approach that is independent of stress intensity factors and fracture toughness was used to simulate progressive fracture. The effect of design variable uncertainties on structural damage was also quantified. A fast probability integrator assessed the scatter in the composite structure response before and after damage. Then the sensitivity of the response to design variables was computed. General-purpose methods, which are applicable to bolted joints in all types of structures and in all fracture processes-from damage initiation to unstable propagation and global structure collapse-were used. These methods were demonstrated for a bolted joint of a polymer matrix composite panel under edge loads. The effects of the fabrication process were included in the simulation of damage in the bolted panel. Results showed that the most effective way to reduce end displacement at fracture is to control both the load and the ply thickness. The cumulative probability for longitudinal stress in all plies was most sensitive to the load; in the 0 deg. plies it was very sensitive to ply thickness. The cumulative probability for transverse stress was most sensitive to the matrix coefficient of thermal expansion. In addition, fiber volume ratio and fiber transverse modulus both contributed significantly to the cumulative probability for the transverse stresses in all the plies.

  1. Improving effectiveness of systematic conservation planning with density data.

    PubMed

    Veloz, Samuel; Salas, Leonardo; Altman, Bob; Alexander, John; Jongsomjit, Dennis; Elliott, Nathan; Ballard, Grant

    2015-08-01

    Systematic conservation planning aims to design networks of protected areas that meet conservation goals across large landscapes. The optimal design of these conservation networks is most frequently based on the modeled habitat suitability or probability of occurrence of species, despite evidence that model predictions may not be highly correlated with species density. We hypothesized that conservation networks designed using species density distributions more efficiently conserve populations of all species considered than networks designed using probability of occurrence models. To test this hypothesis, we used the Zonation conservation prioritization algorithm to evaluate conservation network designs based on probability of occurrence versus density models for 26 land bird species in the U.S. Pacific Northwest. We assessed the efficacy of each conservation network based on predicted species densities and predicted species diversity. High-density model Zonation rankings protected more individuals per species when networks protected the highest priority 10-40% of the landscape. Compared with density-based models, the occurrence-based models protected more individuals in the lowest 50% priority areas of the landscape. The 2 approaches conserved species diversity in similar ways: predicted diversity was higher in higher priority locations in both conservation networks. We conclude that both density and probability of occurrence models can be useful for setting conservation priorities but that density-based models are best suited for identifying the highest priority areas. Developing methods to aggregate species count data from unrelated monitoring efforts and making these data widely available through ecoinformatics portals such as the Avian Knowledge Network will enable species count data to be more widely incorporated into systematic conservation planning efforts. © 2015, Society for Conservation Biology.

  2. Early changes in the distal intertarsal joint of Dutch Warmblood foals and the influence of exercise on bone density in the third tarsal bone.

    PubMed

    Barneveld, A; van Weeren, P R

    1999-11-01

    It was hypothesised that imposition of different exercise levels at a young age would lead to differences in bone density in the third tarsal bone and to difference in the prevalence of pathological lesions that might contribute to the development of bone spavin later in life. Furthermore, based on earlier literature, it was hypothesised that such lesions could be classified as a manifestation of osteochondrosis. Changes in bone density in the third tarsal bone and early pathological changes in the articular cartilage of the distal intertarsal joint were studied in the offspring of sires with radiographic evidence of osteochondrosis in either stifle or hock. Twenty-four foals were studied at age 5 months after having been subjected to different exercise programmes (box-rest, box-rest with sprint training, pasture exercise) from age one week. Nineteen other foals that originally belonged to the same exercise groups were studied at age 11 months, after they had been weaned, housed together and subjected to an identical low level exercise regimen for an additional 6 months. Bone density was quantified using a microscopic technique. Histomorphological analysis was performed semiquantitatively and using high detail radiography techniques. At age 5 months, mean +/- s.d. bone density in the compact bone of the third tarsal bone was significantly lower in the box-rested foals (37 +/- 4%) than in both the trained and pastured foals (48 +/- 7% and 52 +/- 11%, respectively). After 6 months of identical exercise the previously box-rested foals showed an increase in bone density (53 +/- 12%) which became similar to the value found in the formerly pastured foals (52 +/- 8%). Major pathological lesions (chondrocyte necrosis, fragmentation and chondrone formation) of the articular cartilage of the third and central tarsal bones were already present at age 5 months, but were significantly more numerous at 11 months. There was no relation between the number of cartilage lesions and

  3. Traumatic synovitis in a classical guitarist: a study of joint laxity.

    PubMed Central

    Bird, H A; Wright, V

    1981-01-01

    A classical guitarist performing for at least 5 hours each day developed a traumatic synovitis at the left wrist joint that was first erroneously considered to be rheumatoid arthritis. Comparison with members of the same guitar class suggested that unusual joint laxity of the fingers and wrist, probably inherited from the patient's father, was of more importance in the aetiology of the synovitis than a wide range of movement acquired by regular practice. Hyperextension of the metacarpophalangeal joint of the left index finger, quantified by the hyperextensometer, was less marked in the guitarists than in 100 normal individuals. This may be attributed to greater muscular control of the fingers. Lateral instability in the loaded joint may be the most important factor in the aetiology of traumatic synovitis. Images PMID:7224687

  4. Neighbor-Dependent Ramachandran Probability Distributions of Amino Acids Developed from a Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Model

    PubMed Central

    Mitra, Rajib; Jordan, Michael I.; Dunbrack, Roland L.

    2010-01-01

    Distributions of the backbone dihedral angles of proteins have been studied for over 40 years. While many statistical analyses have been presented, only a handful of probability densities are publicly available for use in structure validation and structure prediction methods. The available distributions differ in a number of important ways, which determine their usefulness for various purposes. These include: 1) input data size and criteria for structure inclusion (resolution, R-factor, etc.); 2) filtering of suspect conformations and outliers using B-factors or other features; 3) secondary structure of input data (e.g., whether helix and sheet are included; whether beta turns are included); 4) the method used for determining probability densities ranging from simple histograms to modern nonparametric density estimation; and 5) whether they include nearest neighbor effects on the distribution of conformations in different regions of the Ramachandran map. In this work, Ramachandran probability distributions are presented for residues in protein loops from a high-resolution data set with filtering based on calculated electron densities. Distributions for all 20 amino acids (with cis and trans proline treated separately) have been determined, as well as 420 left-neighbor and 420 right-neighbor dependent distributions. The neighbor-independent and neighbor-dependent probability densities have been accurately estimated using Bayesian nonparametric statistical analysis based on the Dirichlet process. In particular, we used hierarchical Dirichlet process priors, which allow sharing of information between densities for a particular residue type and different neighbor residue types. The resulting distributions are tested in a loop modeling benchmark with the program Rosetta, and are shown to improve protein loop conformation prediction significantly. The distributions are available at http://dunbrack.fccc.edu/hdp. PMID:20442867

  5. Fidelity and breeding probability related to population density and individual quality in black brent geese Branta bernicla nigricans

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sedinger, J.S.; Chelgren, N.D.; Ward, D.H.; Lindberg, M.S.

    2008-01-01

    1. Patterns of temporary emigration (associated with non-breeding) are important components of variation in individual quality. Permanent emigration from the natal area has important implications for both individual fitness and local population dynamics. 2. We estimated both permanent and temporary emigration of black brent geese (Branta bernicla nigricans Lawrence) from the Tutakoke River colony, using observations of marked brent geese on breeding and wintering areas, and recoveries of ringed individuals by hunters. We used the likelihood developed by Lindberg, Kendall, Hines & Anderson 2001 (Combining band recovery data and Pollock's robust design to model temporary and permanent emigration. Biometrics, 57, 273-281) to assess hypotheses and estimate parameters. 3. Temporary emigration (the converse of breeding) varied among age classes up to age 5, and differed between individuals that bred in the previous years vs. those that did not. Consistent with the hypothesis of variation in individual quality, individuals with a higher probability of breeding in one year also had a higher probability of breeding the next year. 4. Natal fidelity of females ranged from 0.70 ?? 0.07-0.96 ?? 0.18 and averaged 0.83. In contrast to Lindberg et al. (1998), we did not detect a relationship between fidelity and local population density. Natal fidelity was negatively correlated with first-year survival, suggesting that competition among individuals of the same age for breeding territories influenced dispersal. Once females nested at the Tutakoke River, colony breeding fidelity was 1.0. 5. Our analyses show substantial variation in individual quality associated with fitness, which other analyses suggest is strongly influenced by early environment. Our analyses also suggest substantial interchange among breeding colonies of brent geese, as first shown by Lindberg et al. (1998).

  6. Digital simulation of two-dimensional random fields with arbitrary power spectra and non-Gaussian probability distribution functions.

    PubMed

    Yura, Harold T; Hanson, Steen G

    2012-04-01

    Methods for simulation of two-dimensional signals with arbitrary power spectral densities and signal amplitude probability density functions are disclosed. The method relies on initially transforming a white noise sample set of random Gaussian distributed numbers into a corresponding set with the desired spectral distribution, after which this colored Gaussian probability distribution is transformed via an inverse transform into the desired probability distribution. In most cases the method provides satisfactory results and can thus be considered an engineering approach. Several illustrative examples with relevance for optics are given.

  7. High hydrostatic pressures in traumatic joints require elevated synovial capillary pressure probably associated with arteriolar vasodilatation.

    PubMed

    Ahlqvist, J; Harilainen, A; Aalto, K; Sarna, S; Lalla, M; Osterlund, K

    1994-11-01

    Three out of the four Starling pressures were determined at arthroscopy of traumatic effusions of the knee. The range of the joint fluid hydrostatic pressure Pjoint was 5-83 cmH2O (0.5-8.1 kPa, 4-61 mmHg), that of the colloid osmotic pressure difference COPplasma-COPjoint 0-21.7 cmH2O. In 11 of 15 cases the sum Pjoint+COP difference exceeded 32.6 cmH2O (3.19 kPa, 24 mmHg), a high estimate of average capillary pressure at the level of the heart. The number of 'exceeding' cases was 8/15 if only 80% of the COP difference was considered effective. Pjoint and the COP difference oppose filtration of fluid from plasma into joints, indicating that mean capillary pressure, the only Starling pressure not determined, was elevated unless the effusions were being resorbed back into the blood. The findings can be explained by tamponade compensated by arteriolar vasodilatation, suspected to be metabolically mediated.

  8. Evaluation of the magnitude of hip joint deformation in subjects with avascular necrosis of the hip joint during walking with and without Scottish Rite orthosis.

    PubMed

    Karimi, Mohammad Taghi; Mohammadi, Ali; Ebrahimi, Mohammad Hossein; McGarry, Anthony

    2017-02-01

    The femoral head in subjects with leg calve perthes disease (LCPD) is generally considerably deformed. It is debatable whether this deformation is due to an increase in applied loads, a decrease in bone mineral density or a change in containment of articular surfaces. The aim of this study was to determine the influence of these factors on deformation of the femoral head. Two subjects with LCPD participated in this study. Subject motion and the forces applied on the affected leg were recorded using a motion analysis system (Qualsis TM ) and a Kistler force plate. OpenSim software was used to determine joint contact force of the hip joint whilst walking with and without a Scottish Rite orthosis. 3D Models of hip joints of both subjects were produced by Mimics software. The deformation of femoral bone was determined by Abaqus. Mean values of the force applied on the leg increased while walking with the orthosis. There was no difference between bone mineral density (BMD) of the femoral bone of normal and LCPD sides (p-value>0.05) and no difference between hip joint contact force of normal and LCPD sides. Hip joint containment appeared to decrease follow the use of the orthosis. It can be concluded that the deformation of femoral head in LCPD may not be due to change in BMD or applied load. Although the Scottish Rite orthosis is used mostly to increase hip joint containment, it appears to reduce hip joint contact area. It is recommended that a similar study is conducted using a higher number of subjects. Copyright © 2016 IPEM. All rights reserved.

  9. Joint genome-wide prediction in several populations accounting for randomness of genotypes: A hierarchical Bayes approach. I: Multivariate Gaussian priors for marker effects and derivation of the joint probability mass function of genotypes.

    PubMed

    Martínez, Carlos Alberto; Khare, Kshitij; Banerjee, Arunava; Elzo, Mauricio A

    2017-03-21

    It is important to consider heterogeneity of marker effects and allelic frequencies in across population genome-wide prediction studies. Moreover, all regression models used in genome-wide prediction overlook randomness of genotypes. In this study, a family of hierarchical Bayesian models to perform across population genome-wide prediction modeling genotypes as random variables and allowing population-specific effects for each marker was developed. Models shared a common structure and differed in the priors used and the assumption about residual variances (homogeneous or heterogeneous). Randomness of genotypes was accounted for by deriving the joint probability mass function of marker genotypes conditional on allelic frequencies and pedigree information. As a consequence, these models incorporated kinship and genotypic information that not only permitted to account for heterogeneity of allelic frequencies, but also to include individuals with missing genotypes at some or all loci without the need for previous imputation. This was possible because the non-observed fraction of the design matrix was treated as an unknown model parameter. For each model, a simpler version ignoring population structure, but still accounting for randomness of genotypes was proposed. Implementation of these models and computation of some criteria for model comparison were illustrated using two simulated datasets. Theoretical and computational issues along with possible applications, extensions and refinements were discussed. Some features of the models developed in this study make them promising for genome-wide prediction, the use of information contained in the probability distribution of genotypes is perhaps the most appealing. Further studies to assess the performance of the models proposed here and also to compare them with conventional models used in genome-wide prediction are needed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Ionization compression impact on dense gas distribution and star formation. Probability density functions around H II regions as seen by Herschel

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tremblin, P.; Schneider, N.; Minier, V.; Didelon, P.; Hill, T.; Anderson, L. D.; Motte, F.; Zavagno, A.; André, Ph.; Arzoumanian, D.; Audit, E.; Benedettini, M.; Bontemps, S.; Csengeri, T.; Di Francesco, J.; Giannini, T.; Hennemann, M.; Nguyen Luong, Q.; Marston, A. P.; Peretto, N.; Rivera-Ingraham, A.; Russeil, D.; Rygl, K. L. J.; Spinoglio, L.; White, G. J.

    2014-04-01

    Aims: Ionization feedback should impact the probability distribution function (PDF) of the column density of cold dust around the ionized gas. We aim to quantify this effect and discuss its potential link to the core and initial mass function (CMF/IMF). Methods: We used Herschel column density maps of several regions observed within the HOBYS key program in a systematic way: M 16, the Rosette and Vela C molecular clouds, and the RCW 120 H ii region. We computed the PDFs in concentric disks around the main ionizing sources, determined their properties, and discuss the effect of ionization pressure on the distribution of the column density. Results: We fitted the column density PDFs of all clouds with two lognormal distributions, since they present a "double-peak" or an enlarged shape in the PDF. Our interpretation is that the lowest part of the column density distribution describes the turbulent molecular gas, while the second peak corresponds to a compression zone induced by the expansion of the ionized gas into the turbulent molecular cloud. Such a double peak is not visible for all clouds associated with ionization fronts, but it depends on the relative importance of ionization pressure and turbulent ram pressure. A power-law tail is present for higher column densities, which are generally ascribed to the effect of gravity. The condensations at the edge of the ionized gas have a steep compressed radial profile, sometimes recognizable in the flattening of the power-law tail. This could lead to an unambiguous criterion that is able to disentangle triggered star formation from pre-existing star formation. Conclusions: In the context of the gravo-turbulent scenario for the origin of the CMF/IMF, the double-peaked or enlarged shape of the PDF may affect the formation of objects at both the low-mass and the high-mass ends of the CMF/IMF. In particular, a broader PDF is required by the gravo-turbulent scenario to fit the IMF properly with a reasonable initial Mach

  11. Technology-Enhanced Interactive Teaching of Marginal, Joint and Conditional Probabilities: The Special Case of Bivariate Normal Distribution

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dinov, Ivo D.; Kamino, Scott; Bhakhrani, Bilal; Christou, Nicolas

    2013-01-01

    Data analysis requires subtle probability reasoning to answer questions like "What is the chance of event A occurring, given that event B was observed?" This generic question arises in discussions of many intriguing scientific questions such as "What is the probability that an adolescent weighs between 120 and 140 pounds given that…

  12. Redundancy and reduction: Speakers manage syntactic information density

    PubMed Central

    Florian Jaeger, T.

    2010-01-01

    A principle of efficient language production based on information theoretic considerations is proposed: Uniform Information Density predicts that language production is affected by a preference to distribute information uniformly across the linguistic signal. This prediction is tested against data from syntactic reduction. A single multilevel logit model analysis of naturally distributed data from a corpus of spontaneous speech is used to assess the effect of information density on complementizer that-mentioning, while simultaneously evaluating the predictions of several influential alternative accounts: availability, ambiguity avoidance, and dependency processing accounts. Information density emerges as an important predictor of speakers’ preferences during production. As information is defined in terms of probabilities, it follows that production is probability-sensitive, in that speakers’ preferences are affected by the contextual probability of syntactic structures. The merits of a corpus-based approach to the study of language production are discussed as well. PMID:20434141

  13. Kinetic and dynamic probability-density-function descriptions of disperse turbulent two-phase flows

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Minier, Jean-Pierre; Profeta, Christophe

    2015-11-01

    This article analyzes the status of two classical one-particle probability density function (PDF) descriptions of the dynamics of discrete particles dispersed in turbulent flows. The first PDF formulation considers only the process made up by particle position and velocity Zp=(xp,Up) and is represented by its PDF p (t ;yp,Vp) which is the solution of a kinetic PDF equation obtained through a flux closure based on the Furutsu-Novikov theorem. The second PDF formulation includes fluid variables into the particle state vector, for example, the fluid velocity seen by particles Zp=(xp,Up,Us) , and, consequently, handles an extended PDF p (t ;yp,Vp,Vs) which is the solution of a dynamic PDF equation. For high-Reynolds-number fluid flows, a typical formulation of the latter category relies on a Langevin model for the trajectories of the fluid seen or, conversely, on a Fokker-Planck equation for the extended PDF. In the present work, a new derivation of the kinetic PDF equation is worked out and new physical expressions of the dispersion tensors entering the kinetic PDF equation are obtained by starting from the extended PDF and integrating over the fluid seen. This demonstrates that, under the same assumption of a Gaussian colored noise and irrespective of the specific stochastic model chosen for the fluid seen, the kinetic PDF description is the marginal of a dynamic PDF one. However, a detailed analysis reveals that kinetic PDF models of particle dynamics in turbulent flows described by statistical correlations constitute incomplete stand-alone PDF descriptions and, moreover, that present kinetic-PDF equations are mathematically ill posed. This is shown to be the consequence of the non-Markovian characteristic of the stochastic process retained to describe the system and the use of an external colored noise. Furthermore, developments bring out that well-posed PDF descriptions are essentially due to a proper choice of the variables selected to describe physical systems

  14. Movement of the sacroiliac joint during the Active Straight Leg Raise test in patients with long-lasting severe sacroiliac joint pain.

    PubMed

    Kibsgård, Thomas J; Röhrl, Stephan M; Røise, Olav; Sturesson, Bengt; Stuge, Britt

    2017-08-01

    The Active Straight Leg Raise is a functional test used in the assessment of pelvic girdle pain, and has shown to have good validity, reliability and responsiveness. The Active Straight Leg Raise is considered to examine the patients' ability to transfer load through the pelvis. It has been hypothesized that patients with pelvic girdle pain lack the ability to stabilize the pelvic girdle, probably due to instability or increased movement of the sacroiliac joint. This study examines the movement of the sacroiliac joints during the Active Straight Leg Raise in patients with pelvic girdle pain. Tantalum markers were inserted in the dorsal sacrum and ilium of 12 patients with long-lasting pelvic girdle pain scheduled for sacroiliac joint fusion surgery. Two to three weeks later movement of the sacroiliac joints during the Active Straight Leg Raise was measured with radiostereometric analysis. Small movements were detected. There was larger movement of the sacroiliac joint of the rested leg's sacroiliac joint compared to the lifted leg's side. A mean backward rotation of 0.8° and inward tilt of 0.3° were seen in the rested leg's sacroiliac joint. The movements of the sacroiliac joints during the Active Straight Leg Raise are small. There was a small backward rotation of the innominate bone relative to sacrum on the rested leg's side. Our findings contradict an earlier understanding that a forward rotation of the lifted leg's innominate occur while performing the Active Straight Leg Raise. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  15. Melt density and the average composition of basalt

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stolper, E.; Walker, D.

    1980-01-01

    Densities of residual liquids produced by low pressure fractionation of olivine-rich melts pass through a minimum when pyroxene and plagioclase joint the crystallization sequence. The observation that erupted basalt compositions cluster around the degree of fractionation from picritic liquids corresponding to the density minimum in the liquid line of descent may thus suggest that the earth's crust imposes a density fiber on the liquids that pass through it, favoring the eruption of the light liquids at the density minimum over the eruption of denser more fractionated and less fractionated liquids.

  16. Understanding Bilingual Word Learning: The Role of Phonotactic Probability and Phonological Neighborhood Density

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nair, Vishnu K. K.; Biedermann, Britta; Nickels, Lyndsey

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: Previous research has shown that the language-learning mechanism is affected by bilingualism resulting in a novel word learning advantage for bilingual speakers. However, less is known about the factors that might influence this advantage. This article reports an investigation of 2 factors: phonotactic probability and phonological…

  17. First-passage problems: A probabilistic dynamic analysis for degraded structures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shiao, Michael C.; Chamis, Christos C.

    1990-01-01

    Structures subjected to random excitations with uncertain system parameters degraded by surrounding environments (a random time history) are studied. Methods are developed to determine the statistics of dynamic responses, such as the time-varying mean, the standard deviation, the autocorrelation functions, and the joint probability density function of any response and its derivative. Moreover, the first-passage problems with deterministic and stationary/evolutionary random barriers are evaluated. The time-varying (joint) mean crossing rate and the probability density function of the first-passage time for various random barriers are derived.

  18. Three-Dimensional Geometric Nonlinear Contact Stress Analysis of Riveted Joints

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shivakumar, Kunigal N.; Ramanujapuram, Vivek

    1998-01-01

    The problems associated with fatigue were brought into the forefront of research by the explosive decompression and structural failure of the Aloha Airlines Flight 243 in 1988. The structural failure of this airplane has been attributed to debonding and multiple cracking along the longitudinal lap splice riveted joint in the fuselage. This crash created what may be termed as a minor "Structural Integrity Revolution" in the commercial transport industry. Major steps have been taken by the manufacturers, operators and authorities to improve the structural airworthiness of the aging fleet of airplanes. Notwithstanding, this considerable effort there are still outstanding issues and concerns related to the formulation of Widespread Fatigue Damage which is believed to have been a contributing factor in the probable cause of the Aloha accident. The lesson from this accident was that Multiple-Site Damage (MSD) in "aging" aircraft can lead to extensive aircraft damage. A strong candidate in which MSD is highly probable to occur is the riveted lap joint.

  19. Probabilistic density function method for nonlinear dynamical systems driven by colored noise

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Barajas-Solano, David A.; Tartakovsky, Alexandre M.

    2016-05-01

    We present a probability density function (PDF) method for a system of nonlinear stochastic ordinary differential equations driven by colored noise. The method provides an integro-differential equation for the temporal evolution of the joint PDF of the system's state, which we close by means of a modified Large-Eddy-Diffusivity-type closure. Additionally, we introduce the generalized local linearization (LL) approximation for deriving a computable PDF equation in the form of the second-order partial differential equation (PDE). We demonstrate the proposed closure and localization accurately describe the dynamics of the PDF in phase space for systems driven by noise with arbitrary auto-correlation time.more » We apply the proposed PDF method to the analysis of a set of Kramers equations driven by exponentially auto-correlated Gaussian colored noise to study the dynamics and stability of a power grid.« less

  20. Improving the accurate assessment of a layered shear-wave velocity model using joint inversion of the effective Rayleigh wave and Love wave dispersion curves

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yin, X.; Xia, J.; Xu, H.

    2016-12-01

    Rayleigh and Love waves are two types of surface waves that travel along a free surface.Based on the assumption of horizontal layered homogenous media, Rayleigh-wave phase velocity can be defined as a function of frequency and four groups of earth parameters: P-wave velocity, SV-wave velocity, density and thickness of each layer. Unlike Rayleigh waves, Love-wave phase velocities of a layered homogenous earth model could be calculated using frequency and three groups of earth properties: SH-wave velocity, density, and thickness of each layer. Because the dispersion of Love waves is independent of P-wave velocities, Love-wave dispersion curves are much simpler than Rayleigh wave. The research of joint inversion methods of Rayleigh and Love dispersion curves is necessary. (1) This dissertation adopts the combinations of theoretical analysis and practical applications. In both lateral homogenous media and radial anisotropic media, joint inversion approaches of Rayleigh and Love waves are proposed to improve the accuracy of S-wave velocities.A 10% random white noise and a 20% random white noise are added to the synthetic dispersion curves to check out anti-noise ability of the proposed joint inversion method.Considering the influences of the anomalous layer, Rayleigh and Love waves are insensitive to those layers beneath the high-velocity layer or low-velocity layer and the high-velocity layer itself. Low sensitivities will give rise to high degree of uncertainties of the inverted S-wave velocities of these layers. Considering that sensitivity peaks of Rayleigh and Love waves separate at different frequency ranges, the theoretical analyses have demonstrated that joint inversion of these two types of waves would probably ameliorate the inverted model.The lack of surface-wave (Rayleigh or Love waves) dispersion data may lead to inaccuracy S-wave velocities through the single inversion of Rayleigh or Love waves, so this dissertation presents the joint inversion method of

  1. The difference between two random mixed quantum states: exact and asymptotic spectral analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mejía, José; Zapata, Camilo; Botero, Alonso

    2017-01-01

    We investigate the spectral statistics of the difference of two density matrices, each of which is independently obtained by partially tracing a random bipartite pure quantum state. We first show how a closed-form expression for the exact joint eigenvalue probability density function for arbitrary dimensions can be obtained from the joint probability density function of the diagonal elements of the difference matrix, which is straightforward to compute. Subsequently, we use standard results from free probability theory to derive a relatively simple analytic expression for the asymptotic eigenvalue density (AED) of the difference matrix ensemble, and using Carlson’s theorem, we obtain an expression for its absolute moments. These results allow us to quantify the typical asymptotic distance between the two random mixed states using various distance measures; in particular, we obtain the almost sure asymptotic behavior of the operator norm distance and the trace distance.

  2. Electromigration analysis of solder joints under ac load: A mean time to failure model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yao, Wei; Basaran, Cemal

    2012-03-01

    In this study, alternating current (ac) electromigration (EM) degradation simulations were carried out for Sn95.5%Ag4.0%Cu0.5 (SAC405- by weight) solder joints. Mass transport analysis was conducted with viscoplastic material properties for quantifying damage mechanism in solder joints. Square, sine, and triangle current wave forms ac were used as input signals. dc and pulsed dc (PDC) electromigration analysis were conducted for comparison purposes. The maximum current density ranged from 2.2×106A/cm2 to 5.0×106A/cm2, frequency ranged from 0.05 Hz to 5 Hz with ambient temperature varying from 350 K to 450 K. Because the room temperature is nearly two-thirds of SAC solder joint's melting point on absolute temperature scale (494.15 K), viscoplastic material model is essential. Entropy based damage evolution model was used to investigate mean time to failure (MTF) behavior of solder joints subjected to ac stressing. It was observed that MTF was inversely proportional to ambient temperature T1.1 in Celsius and also inversely proportional to current density j0.27 in A/cm2. Higher frequency will lead to a shorter lifetime with in the frequency range we studied, and a relationship is proposed as MTF∝f-0.41. Lifetime of a solder joint subjected to ac is longer compared with dc and PDC loading conditions. By introducing frequency, ambient temperature and current density dependency terms, a modified MTTF equation was proposed for solder joints subjected to ac current stressing.

  3. Joint Analysis of GOCE Gravity Gradients Data with Seismological and Geodynamic Observations to Infer Mantle Properties

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Metivier, L.; Greff-Lefftz, M.; Panet, I.; Pajot-Métivier, G.; Caron, L.

    2014-12-01

    Joint inversion of the observed geoid and seismic velocities has been commonly used to constrain the viscosity profile within the mantle as well as the lateral density variations. Recent satellite measurements of the second-order derivatives of the Earth's gravity potential give new possibilities to understand these mantle properties. We use lateral density variations in the Earth's mantle based on slab history or deduced from seismic tomography. The main uncertainties are the relationship between seismic velocity and density -the so-called density/velocity scaling factor- and the variation with depth of the density contrast between the cold slabs and the surrounding mantle, introduced here as a scaling factor with respect to a constant value. The geoid, gravity and gravity gradients at the altitude of the GOCE satellite (about 255 km) are derived using geoid kernels for given viscosity depth profiles. We assume a layered mantle model with viscosity and conversion factor constant in each layer, and we fix the viscosity of the lithosphere. We perform a Monte Carlo search for the viscosity and the density/velocity scaling factor profiles within the mantle which allow to fit the observed geoid, gravity and gradients of gravity. We test a 2-layer, a 3-layer and 4-layer mantle. For each model, we compute the posterior probability distribution of the unknown parameters, and we discuss the respective contributions of the geoid, gravity and gravity gradients in the inversion. Finally, for the best fit, we present the viscosity and scaling factor profiles obtained for the lateral density variations derived from seismic velocities and for slabs sinking into the mantle.

  4. Low Probability of Intercept Waveforms via Intersymbol Dither Performance Under Multiple Conditions

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2009-03-01

    United States Air Force, Department of Defense, or the United States Government . AFIT/GE/ENG/09-23 Low Probability of Intercept Waveforms via...21 D random variable governing the distribution of dither values 21 p (ct) D (t) probability density function of the...potential performance loss of a non-cooperative receiver compared to a cooperative receiver designed to account for ISI and multipath. 1.3 Thesis

  5. Low Probability of Intercept Waveforms via Intersymbol Dither Performance Under Multipath Conditions

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2009-03-01

    United States Air Force, Department of Defense, or the United States Government . AFIT/GE/ENG/09-23 Low Probability of Intercept Waveforms via...21 D random variable governing the distribution of dither values 21 p (ct) D (t) probability density function of the...potential performance loss of a non-cooperative receiver compared to a cooperative receiver designed to account for ISI and multipath. 1.3 Thesis

  6. Wald Sequential Probability Ratio Test for Space Object Conjunction Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Carpenter, James R.; Markley, F Landis

    2014-01-01

    This paper shows how satellite owner/operators may use sequential estimates of collision probability, along with a prior assessment of the base risk of collision, in a compound hypothesis ratio test to inform decisions concerning collision risk mitigation maneuvers. The compound hypothesis test reduces to a simple probability ratio test, which appears to be a novel result. The test satisfies tolerances related to targeted false alarm and missed detection rates. This result is independent of the method one uses to compute the probability density that one integrates to compute collision probability. A well-established test case from the literature shows that this test yields acceptable results within the constraints of a typical operational conjunction assessment decision timeline. Another example illustrates the use of the test in a practical conjunction assessment scenario based on operations of the International Space Station.

  7. An evaluation of procedures to estimate monthly precipitation probabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Legates, David R.

    1991-01-01

    Many frequency distributions have been used to evaluate monthly precipitation probabilities. Eight of these distributions (including Pearson type III, extreme value, and transform normal probability density functions) are comparatively examined to determine their ability to represent accurately variations in monthly precipitation totals for global hydroclimatological analyses. Results indicate that a modified version of the Box-Cox transform-normal distribution more adequately describes the 'true' precipitation distribution than does any of the other methods. This assessment was made using a cross-validation procedure for a global network of 253 stations for which at least 100 years of monthly precipitation totals were available.

  8. Sequential Probability Ratio Test for Collision Avoidance Maneuver Decisions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Carpenter, J. Russell; Markley, F. Landis

    2010-01-01

    When facing a conjunction between space objects, decision makers must chose whether to maneuver for collision avoidance or not. We apply a well-known decision procedure, the sequential probability ratio test, to this problem. We propose two approaches to the problem solution, one based on a frequentist method, and the other on a Bayesian method. The frequentist method does not require any prior knowledge concerning the conjunction, while the Bayesian method assumes knowledge of prior probability densities. Our results show that both methods achieve desired missed detection rates, but the frequentist method's false alarm performance is inferior to the Bayesian method's

  9. Summary of intrinsic and extrinsic factors affecting detection probability of marsh birds

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Conway, C.J.; Gibbs, J.P.

    2011-01-01

    Many species of marsh birds (rails, bitterns, grebes, etc.) rely exclusively on emergent marsh vegetation for all phases of their life cycle, and many organizations have become concerned about the status and persistence of this group of birds. Yet, marsh birds are notoriously difficult to monitor due to their secretive habits. We synthesized the published and unpublished literature and summarized the factors that influence detection probability of secretive marsh birds in North America. Marsh birds are more likely to respond to conspecific than heterospecific calls, and seasonal peak in vocalization probability varies among co-existing species. The effectiveness of morning versus evening surveys varies among species and locations. Vocalization probability appears to be positively correlated with density in breeding Virginia Rails (Rallus limicola), Soras (Porzana carolina), and Clapper Rails (Rallus longirostris). Movement of birds toward the broadcast source creates biases when using count data from callbroadcast surveys to estimate population density. Ambient temperature, wind speed, cloud cover, and moon phase affected detection probability in some, but not all, studies. Better estimates of detection probability are needed. We provide recommendations that would help improve future marsh bird survey efforts and a list of 14 priority information and research needs that represent gaps in our current knowledge where future resources are best directed. ?? Society of Wetland Scientists 2011.

  10. Patient and implant survival following joint replacement because of metastatic bone disease

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Patients suffering from a pathological fracture or painful bony lesion because of metastatic bone disease often benefit from a total joint replacement. However, these are large operations in patients who are often weak. We examined the patient survival and complication rates after total joint replacement as the treatment for bone metastasis or hematological diseases of the extremities. Patients and methods 130 patients (mean age 64 (30–85) years, 76 females) received 140 joint replacements due to skeletal metastases (n = 114) or hematological disease (n = 16) during the period 2003–2008. 21 replaced joints were located in the upper extremities and 119 in the lower extremities. Clinical and survival data were extracted from patient files and various registers. Results The probability of patient survival was 51% (95% CI: 42–59) after 6 months, 39% (CI: 31–48) after 12 months, and 29% (CI: 21–37) after 24 months. The following surgical complications were seen (8 of which led to additional surgery): 2–5 hip dislocations (n = 8), deep infection (n = 3), peroneal palsy (n = 2), a shoulder prosthesis penetrating the skin (n = 1), and disassembly of an elbow prosthesis (n = 1). The probability of avoiding all kinds of surgery related to the implanted prosthesis was 94% (CI: 89–99) after 1 year and 92% (CI: 85–98) after 2 years. Conclusion Joint replacement operations because of metastatic bone disease do not appear to have given a poorer rate of patient survival than other types of surgical treatment, and the reoperation rate was low. PMID:23530874

  11. Non-Gaussian probabilistic MEG source localisation based on kernel density estimation☆

    PubMed Central

    Mohseni, Hamid R.; Kringelbach, Morten L.; Woolrich, Mark W.; Baker, Adam; Aziz, Tipu Z.; Probert-Smith, Penny

    2014-01-01

    There is strong evidence to suggest that data recorded from magnetoencephalography (MEG) follows a non-Gaussian distribution. However, existing standard methods for source localisation model the data using only second order statistics, and therefore use the inherent assumption of a Gaussian distribution. In this paper, we present a new general method for non-Gaussian source estimation of stationary signals for localising brain activity from MEG data. By providing a Bayesian formulation for MEG source localisation, we show that the source probability density function (pdf), which is not necessarily Gaussian, can be estimated using multivariate kernel density estimators. In the case of Gaussian data, the solution of the method is equivalent to that of widely used linearly constrained minimum variance (LCMV) beamformer. The method is also extended to handle data with highly correlated sources using the marginal distribution of the estimated joint distribution, which, in the case of Gaussian measurements, corresponds to the null-beamformer. The proposed non-Gaussian source localisation approach is shown to give better spatial estimates than the LCMV beamformer, both in simulations incorporating non-Gaussian signals, and in real MEG measurements of auditory and visual evoked responses, where the highly correlated sources are known to be difficult to estimate. PMID:24055702

  12. Experimental Investigation of the Influence of Joint Geometric Configurations on the Mechanical Properties of Intermittent Jointed Rock Models Under Cyclic Uniaxial Compression

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Yi; Dai, Feng; Fan, Pengxian; Xu, Nuwen; Dong, Lu

    2017-06-01

    Intermittent joints in rock mass are quite sensitive to cyclic loading conditions. Understanding the fatigue mechanical properties of jointed rocks is beneficial for rational design and stability analysis of rock engineering projects. This study experimentally investigated the influences of joint geometry (i.e., dip angle, persistency, density and spacing) on the fatigue mechanism of synthetic jointed rock models. Our results revealed that the stress-strain curve of jointed rock under cyclic loadings is dominated by its curve under monotonic uniaxial loadings; the terminal strain in fatigue curve is equal to the post-peak strain corresponding to the maximum cyclic stress in the monotonic stress-strain curve. The four joint geometrical parameters studied significantly affect the fatigue properties of jointed rocks, including the irreversible strains, the fatigue deformation modulus, the energy evolution, the damage variable and the crack coalescence patterns. The higher the values of the geometrical parameters, the lower the elastic energy stores in this jointed rock, the higher the fatigue damage accumulates in the first few cycles, and the lower the fatigue life. The elastic energy has certain storage limitation, at which the fatigue failure occurs. Two basic micro-cracks, i.e., tensile wing crack and shear crack, are observed in cyclic loading and unloading tests, which are controlled principally by joint dip angle and persistency. In general, shear cracks only occur in the jointed rock with higher dip angle or higher persistency, and the jointed rock is characterized by lower fatigue strength, larger damage variable and lower fatigue life.

  13. Effect of stress concentration on the fatigue strength of A7N01S-T5 welded joints

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Mingyue; Gou, Guoqing; Hang, Zongqiu; Chen, Hui

    2017-07-01

    Stress concentration is a key factor that affects the fatigue strength of welded joints. In this study, the fatigue strengths of butt joints with and without the weld reinforcement were tested to quantify the effect of stress concentration. The fatigue strength of the welded joints was measured with a high-frequency fatigue machine. The P-S-N curves were drawn under different confidence levels and failure probabilities. The results show that butt joints with the weld reinforcement have much lower fatigue strength than joints without the weld reinforcement. Therefore, stress concentration introduced by the weld reinforcement should be controlled.

  14. Quality control/quality assurance testing for joint density and segregation of asphalt mixtures.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2013-04-01

    Longitudinal joint quality control/assurance is essential to the successful performance of asphalt pavements and it has received considerable amount of attention in recent years. The purpose of the study is to evaluate the level of compaction at the ...

  15. Large eddy simulation of turbulent premixed combustion using tabulated detailed chemistry and presumed probability density function

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Hongda; Han, Chao; Ye, Taohong; Ren, Zhuyin

    2016-03-01

    A method of chemistry tabulation combined with presumed probability density function (PDF) is applied to simulate piloted premixed jet burner flames with high Karlovitz number using large eddy simulation. Thermo-chemistry states are tabulated by the combination of auto-ignition and extended auto-ignition model. To evaluate the predictive capability of the proposed tabulation method to represent the thermo-chemistry states under the condition of different fresh gases temperature, a-priori study is conducted by performing idealised transient one-dimensional premixed flame simulations. Presumed PDF is used to involve the interaction of turbulence and flame with beta PDF to model the reaction progress variable distribution. Two presumed PDF models, Dirichlet distribution and independent beta distribution, respectively, are applied for representing the interaction between two mixture fractions that are associated with three inlet streams. Comparisons of statistical results show that two presumed PDF models for the two mixture fractions are both capable of predicting temperature and major species profiles, however, they are shown to have a significant effect on the predictions for intermediate species. An analysis of the thermo-chemical state-space representation of the sub-grid scale (SGS) combustion model is performed by comparing correlations between the carbon monoxide mass fraction and temperature. The SGS combustion model based on the proposed chemistry tabulation can reasonably capture the peak value and change trend of intermediate species. Aspects regarding model extensions to adequately predict the peak location of intermediate species are discussed.

  16. Inferring species interactions through joint mark–recapture analysis

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Yackulic, Charles B.; Korman, Josh; Yard, Michael D.; Dzul, Maria C.

    2018-01-01

    Introduced species are frequently implicated in declines of native species. In many cases, however, evidence linking introduced species to native declines is weak. Failure to make strong inferences regarding the role of introduced species can hamper attempts to predict population viability and delay effective management responses. For many species, mark–recapture analysis is the more rigorous form of demographic analysis. However, to our knowledge, there are no mark–recapture models that allow for joint modeling of interacting species. Here, we introduce a two‐species mark–recapture population model in which the vital rates (and capture probabilities) of one species are allowed to vary in response to the abundance of the other species. We use a simulation study to explore bias and choose an approach to model selection. We then use the model to investigate species interactions between endangered humpback chub (Gila cypha) and introduced rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) in the Colorado River between 2009 and 2016. In particular, we test hypotheses about how two environmental factors (turbidity and temperature), intraspecific density dependence, and rainbow trout abundance are related to survival, growth, and capture of juvenile humpback chub. We also project the long‐term effects of different rainbow trout abundances on adult humpback chub abundances. Our simulation study suggests this approach has minimal bias under potentially challenging circumstances (i.e., low capture probabilities) that characterized our application and that model selection using indicator variables could reliably identify the true generating model even when process error was high. When the model was applied to rainbow trout and humpback chub, we identified negative relationships between rainbow trout abundance and the survival, growth, and capture probability of juvenile humpback chub. Effects on interspecific interactions on survival and capture probability were strongly

  17. Approaches to Evaluating Probability of Collision Uncertainty

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hejduk, Matthew D.; Johnson, Lauren C.

    2016-01-01

    While the two-dimensional probability of collision (Pc) calculation has served as the main input to conjunction analysis risk assessment for over a decade, it has done this mostly as a point estimate, with relatively little effort made to produce confidence intervals on the Pc value based on the uncertainties in the inputs. The present effort seeks to try to carry these uncertainties through the calculation in order to generate a probability density of Pc results rather than a single average value. Methods for assessing uncertainty in the primary and secondary objects' physical sizes and state estimate covariances, as well as a resampling approach to reveal the natural variability in the calculation, are presented; and an initial proposal for operationally-useful display and interpretation of these data for a particular conjunction is given.

  18. Background for Joint Systems Aspects of AIR 6000

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2000-04-01

    Checkland’s Soft Systems Methodology [7, 8,9]. The analytical techniques that are proposed for joint systems work are based on calculating probability...Supporting Global Interests 21 DSTO-CR-0155 SLMP Structural Life Management Plan SOW Stand-Off Weapon SSM Soft Systems Methodology UAV Uninhabited Aerial... Systems Methodology in Action, John Wiley & Sons, Chichester, 1990. [101 Pearl, Judea, Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems: Networks of Plausible

  19. Evaluation of TransTech joint maker and precompaction screed.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2000-09-01

    The primary objective of this evaluation is to determine the effectiveness of the Joint Maker and Precompaction : Screed, both developed by TransTech Systems, Inc., in achieving higher and more uniform density across the mat of : a rehabilitated Hot ...

  20. Dose-volume histogram prediction using density estimation.

    PubMed

    Skarpman Munter, Johanna; Sjölund, Jens

    2015-09-07

    Knowledge of what dose-volume histograms can be expected for a previously unseen patient could increase consistency and quality in radiotherapy treatment planning. We propose a machine learning method that uses previous treatment plans to predict such dose-volume histograms. The key to the approach is the framing of dose-volume histograms in a probabilistic setting.The training consists of estimating, from the patients in the training set, the joint probability distribution of some predictive features and the dose. The joint distribution immediately provides an estimate of the conditional probability of the dose given the values of the predictive features. The prediction consists of estimating, from the new patient, the distribution of the predictive features and marginalizing the conditional probability from the training over this. Integrating the resulting probability distribution for the dose yields an estimate of the dose-volume histogram.To illustrate how the proposed method relates to previously proposed methods, we use the signed distance to the target boundary as a single predictive feature. As a proof-of-concept, we predicted dose-volume histograms for the brainstems of 22 acoustic schwannoma patients treated with stereotactic radiosurgery, and for the lungs of 9 lung cancer patients treated with stereotactic body radiation therapy. Comparing with two previous attempts at dose-volume histogram prediction we find that, given the same input data, the predictions are similar.In summary, we propose a method for dose-volume histogram prediction that exploits the intrinsic probabilistic properties of dose-volume histograms. We argue that the proposed method makes up for some deficiencies in previously proposed methods, thereby potentially increasing ease of use, flexibility and ability to perform well with small amounts of training data.

  1. Oak regeneration and overstory density in the Missouri Ozarks

    Treesearch

    David R. Larsen; Monte A. Metzger

    1997-01-01

    Reducing overstory density is a commonly recommended method of increasing the regeneration potential of oak (Quercus) forests. However, recommendations seldom specify the probable increase in density or the size of reproduction associated with a given residual overstory density. This paper presents logistic regression models that describe this...

  2. Posterior probability of linkage and maximal lod score.

    PubMed

    Génin, E; Martinez, M; Clerget-Darpoux, F

    1995-01-01

    To detect linkage between a trait and a marker, Morton (1955) proposed to calculate the lod score z(theta 1) at a given value theta 1 of the recombination fraction. If z(theta 1) reaches +3 then linkage is concluded. However, in practice, lod scores are calculated for different values of the recombination fraction between 0 and 0.5 and the test is based on the maximum value of the lod score Zmax. The impact of this deviation of the test on the probability that in fact linkage does not exist, when linkage was concluded, is documented here. This posterior probability of no linkage can be derived by using Bayes' theorem. It is less than 5% when the lod score at a predetermined theta 1 is used for the test. But, for a Zmax of +3, we showed that it can reach 16.4%. Thus, considering a composite alternative hypothesis instead of a single one decreases the reliability of the test. The reliability decreases rapidly when Zmax is less than +3. Given a Zmax of +2.5, there is a 33% chance that linkage does not exist. Moreover, the posterior probability depends not only on the value of Zmax but also jointly on the family structures and on the genetic model. For a given Zmax, the chance that linkage exists may then vary.

  3. Long-term stress distribution patterns of the ankle joint in varus knee alignment assessed by computed tomography osteoabsorptiometry.

    PubMed

    Onodera, Tomohiro; Majima, Tokifumi; Iwasaki, Norimasa; Kamishima, Tamotsu; Kasahara, Yasuhiko; Minami, Akio

    2012-09-01

    The stress distribution of an ankle under various physiological conditions is important for long-term survival of total ankle arthroplasty. The aim of this study was to measure subchondral bone density across the distal tibial joint surface in patients with malalignment/instability of the lower limb. We evaluated subchondral bone density across the distal tibial joint in patients with malalignment/instability of the knee by computed tomography (CT) osteoabsorptiometry from ten ankles as controls and from 27 ankles with varus deformity/instability of the knee. The quantitative analysis focused on the location of the high-density area at the articular surface, to determine the resultant long-term stress on the ankle joint. The area of maximum density of subchondral bone was located in the medial part in all subjects. The pattern of maximum density in the anterolateral area showed stepwise increases with the development of varus deformity/instability of the knee. Our results should prove helpful for designing new prostheses and determining clinical indications for total ankle arthroplasty.

  4. A model to explain joint patterns found in ignimbrite deposits

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tibaldi, A.; Bonali, F. L.

    2018-03-01

    The study of fracture systems is of paramount importance for economic applications, such as CO2 storage in rock successions, geothermal and hydrocarbon exploration and exploitation, and also for a better knowledge of seismogenic fault formation. Understanding the origin of joints can be useful for tectonic studies and for a geotechnical characterisation of rock masses. Here, we illustrate a joint pattern discovered in ignimbrite deposits of South America, which can be confused with conjugate tectonic joint sets but which have another origin. The pattern is probably common, but recognisable only in plan view and before tectonic deformation obscures and overprints it. Key sites have been mostly studied by field surveys in Bolivia and Chile. The pattern is represented by hundreds-of-meters up to kilometre-long swarms of master joints, which show circular to semi-circular geometries and intersections that have "X" and "Y" patterns. Inside each swarm, joints are systematic, rectilinear or curvilinear in plan view, and as much as 900 m long. In section view, they are from sub-vertical to vertical and do not affect the underlying deposits. Joints with different orientation mostly interrupt each other, suggesting they have the same age. This joint architecture is here interpreted as resulting from differential contraction after emplacement of the ignimbrite deposit above a complex topography. The set of the joint pattern that has suitable orientation with respect to tectonic stresses may act to nucleate faults.

  5. Comparison of dynamic treatment regimes via inverse probability weighting.

    PubMed

    Hernán, Miguel A; Lanoy, Emilie; Costagliola, Dominique; Robins, James M

    2006-03-01

    Appropriate analysis of observational data is our best chance to obtain answers to many questions that involve dynamic treatment regimes. This paper describes a simple method to compare dynamic treatment regimes by artificially censoring subjects and then using inverse probability weighting (IPW) to adjust for any selection bias introduced by the artificial censoring. The basic strategy can be summarized in four steps: 1) define two regimes of interest, 2) artificially censor individuals when they stop following one of the regimes of interest, 3) estimate inverse probability weights to adjust for the potential selection bias introduced by censoring in the previous step, 4) compare the survival of the uncensored individuals under each regime of interest by fitting an inverse probability weighted Cox proportional hazards model with the dichotomous regime indicator and the baseline confounders as covariates. In the absence of model misspecification, the method is valid provided data are available on all time-varying and baseline joint predictors of survival and regime discontinuation. We present an application of the method to compare the AIDS-free survival under two dynamic treatment regimes in a large prospective study of HIV-infected patients. The paper concludes by discussing the relative advantages and disadvantages of censoring/IPW versus g-estimation of nested structural models to compare dynamic regimes.

  6. The impact of joint responses of devices in an airport security system.

    PubMed

    Nie, Xiaofeng; Batta, Rajan; Drury, Colin G; Lin, Li

    2009-02-01

    In this article, we consider a model for an airport security system in which the declaration of a threat is based on the joint responses of inspection devices. This is in contrast to the typical system in which each check station independently declares a passenger as having a threat or not having a threat. In our framework the declaration of threat/no-threat is based upon the passenger scores at the check stations he/she goes through. To do this we use concepts from classification theory in the field of multivariate statistics analysis and focus on the main objective of minimizing the expected cost of misclassification. The corresponding correct classification and misclassification probabilities can be obtained by using a simulation-based method. After computing the overall false alarm and false clear probabilities, we compare our joint response system with two other independently operated systems. A model that groups passengers in a manner that minimizes the false alarm probability while maintaining the false clear probability within specifications set by a security authority is considered. We also analyze the staffing needs at each check station for such an inspection scheme. An illustrative example is provided along with sensitivity analysis on key model parameters. A discussion is provided on some implementation issues, on the various assumptions made in the analysis, and on potential drawbacks of the approach.

  7. Modelling the Probability of Landslides Impacting Road Networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taylor, F. E.; Malamud, B. D.

    2012-04-01

    During a landslide triggering event, the threat of landslides blocking roads poses a risk to logistics, rescue efforts and communities dependant on those road networks. Here we present preliminary results of a stochastic model we have developed to evaluate the probability of landslides intersecting a simple road network during a landslide triggering event and apply simple network indices to measure the state of the road network in the affected region. A 4000 x 4000 cell array with a 5 m x 5 m resolution was used, with a pre-defined simple road network laid onto it, and landslides 'randomly' dropped onto it. Landslide areas (AL) were randomly selected from a three-parameter inverse gamma probability density function, consisting of a power-law decay of about -2.4 for medium and large values of AL and an exponential rollover for small values of AL; the rollover (maximum probability) occurs at about AL = 400 m2 This statistical distribution was chosen based on three substantially complete triggered landslide inventories recorded in existing literature. The number of landslide areas (NL) selected for each triggered event iteration was chosen to have an average density of 1 landslide km-2, i.e. NL = 400 landslide areas chosen randomly for each iteration, and was based on several existing triggered landslide event inventories. A simple road network was chosen, in a 'T' shape configuration, with one road 1 x 4000 cells (5 m x 20 km) in a 'T' formation with another road 1 x 2000 cells (5 m x 10 km). The landslide areas were then randomly 'dropped' over the road array and indices such as the location, size (ABL) and number of road blockages (NBL) recorded. This process was performed 500 times (iterations) in a Monte-Carlo type simulation. Initial results show that for a landslide triggering event with 400 landslides over a 400 km2 region, the number of road blocks per iteration, NBL,ranges from 0 to 7. The average blockage area for the 500 iterations (A¯ BL) is about 3000 m

  8. Multivariate Density Estimation and Remote Sensing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Scott, D. W.

    1983-01-01

    Current efforts to develop methods and computer algorithms to effectively represent multivariate data commonly encountered in remote sensing applications are described. While this may involve scatter diagrams, multivariate representations of nonparametric probability density estimates are emphasized. The density function provides a useful graphical tool for looking at data and a useful theoretical tool for classification. This approach is called a thunderstorm data analysis.

  9. "Combined Diagnostic Tool" APPlication to a Retrospective Series of Patients Undergoing Total Joint Revision Surgery.

    PubMed

    Gallazzi, Enrico; Drago, Lorenzo; Baldini, Andrea; Stockley, Ian; George, David A; Scarponi, Sara; Romanò, Carlo L

    2017-01-01

    Background : Differentiating between septic and aseptic joint prosthesis may be challenging, since no single test is able to confirm or rule out infection. The choice and interpretation of the panel of tests performed in any case often relies on empirical evaluation and poorly validated scores. The "Combined Diagnostic Tool (CDT)" App, a smartphone application for iOS, was developed to allow to automatically calculate the probability of having a of periprosthetic joint infection, on the basis of the relative sensitivity and specificity of the positive and negative diagnostic tests performed in any given patient. Objective : The aim of the present study was to apply the CDT software to investigate the ability of the tests routinely performed in three high-volume European centers to diagnose a periprosthetic infection. Methods : This three-center retrospective study included 120 consecutive patients undergoing total hip or knee revision, and included 65 infected patients (Group A) and 55 patients without infection (Group B). The following parameters were evaluated: number and type of positive and negative diagnostic tests performed pre-, intra- and post-operatively and resultant probability calculated by the CDT App of having a peri-prosthetic joint infection, based on pre-, intra- and post-operative combined tests. Results : Serological tests were the most common performed, with an average 2.7 tests per patient for Group A and 2.2 for Group B, followed by joint aspiration (0.9 and 0.8 tests per patient, respectively) and imaging techniques (0.5 and 0.2 test per patient). Mean CDT App calculated probability of having an infection based on pre-operative tests was 79.4% for patients in Group A and 35.7 in Group B. Twenty-nine patients in Group A had > 10% chance of not having an infection, and 29 of Group B had > 10% chance of having an infection. Conclusion : This is the first retrospective study focused on investigating the number and type of tests commonly performed

  10. Crack Damage Parameters and Dilatancy of Artificially Jointed Granite Samples Under Triaxial Compression

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Walton, G.; Alejano, L. R.; Arzua, J.; Markley, T.

    2018-06-01

    A database of post-peak triaxial test results was created for artificially jointed planes introduced in cylindrical compression samples of a Blanco Mera granite. Aside from examining the artificial jointing effect on major rock and rock mass parameters such as stiffness, peak strength and residual strength, other strength parameters related to brittle cracking and post-yield dilatancy were analyzed. Crack initiation and crack damage values for both the intact and artificially jointed samples were determined, and these damage envelopes were found to be notably impacted by the presence of jointing. The data suggest that with increased density of jointing, the samples transition from a combined matrix damage and joint slip yielding mechanism to yield dominated by joint slip. Additionally, post-yield dilation data were analyzed in the context of a mobilized dilation angle model, and the peak dilation angle was found to decrease significantly when there were joints in the samples. These dilatancy results are consistent with hypotheses in the literature on rock mass dilatancy.

  11. Cell survival fraction estimation based on the probability densities of domain and cell nucleus specific energies using improved microdosimetric kinetic models.

    PubMed

    Sato, Tatsuhiko; Furusawa, Yoshiya

    2012-10-01

    Estimation of the survival fractions of cells irradiated with various particles over a wide linear energy transfer (LET) range is of great importance in the treatment planning of charged-particle therapy. Two computational models were developed for estimating survival fractions based on the concept of the microdosimetric kinetic model. They were designated as the double-stochastic microdosimetric kinetic and stochastic microdosimetric kinetic models. The former model takes into account the stochastic natures of both domain and cell nucleus specific energies, whereas the latter model represents the stochastic nature of domain specific energy by its approximated mean value and variance to reduce the computational time. The probability densities of the domain and cell nucleus specific energies are the fundamental quantities for expressing survival fractions in these models. These densities are calculated using the microdosimetric and LET-estimator functions implemented in the Particle and Heavy Ion Transport code System (PHITS) in combination with the convolution or database method. Both the double-stochastic microdosimetric kinetic and stochastic microdosimetric kinetic models can reproduce the measured survival fractions for high-LET and high-dose irradiations, whereas a previously proposed microdosimetric kinetic model predicts lower values for these fractions, mainly due to intrinsic ignorance of the stochastic nature of cell nucleus specific energies in the calculation. The models we developed should contribute to a better understanding of the mechanism of cell inactivation, as well as improve the accuracy of treatment planning of charged-particle therapy.

  12. Probability workshop to be better in probability topic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Asmat, Aszila; Ujang, Suriyati; Wahid, Sharifah Norhuda Syed

    2015-02-01

    The purpose of the present study was to examine whether statistics anxiety and attitudes towards probability topic among students in higher education level have an effect on their performance. 62 fourth semester science students were given statistics anxiety questionnaires about their perception towards probability topic. Result indicated that students' performance in probability topic is not related to anxiety level, which means that the higher level in statistics anxiety will not cause lower score in probability topic performance. The study also revealed that motivated students gained from probability workshop ensure that their performance in probability topic shows a positive improvement compared before the workshop. In addition there exists a significance difference in students' performance between genders with better achievement among female students compared to male students. Thus, more initiatives in learning programs with different teaching approaches is needed to provide useful information in improving student learning outcome in higher learning institution.

  13. Vertical overlap of probability density functions of cloud and precipitation hydrometeors: CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION PDF OVERLAP

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Ovchinnikov, Mikhail; Lim, Kyo-Sun Sunny; Larson, Vincent E.

    Coarse-resolution climate models increasingly rely on probability density functions (PDFs) to represent subgrid-scale variability of prognostic variables. While PDFs characterize the horizontal variability, a separate treatment is needed to account for the vertical structure of clouds and precipitation. When sub-columns are drawn from these PDFs for microphysics or radiation parameterizations, appropriate vertical correlations must be enforced via PDF overlap specifications. This study evaluates the representation of PDF overlap in the Subgrid Importance Latin Hypercube Sampler (SILHS) employed in the assumed PDF turbulence and cloud scheme called the Cloud Layers Unified By Binormals (CLUBB). PDF overlap in CLUBB-SILHS simulations of continentalmore » and tropical oceanic deep convection is compared with overlap of PDF of various microphysics variables in cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulations of the same cases that explicitly predict the 3D structure of cloud and precipitation fields. CRM results show that PDF overlap varies significantly between different hydrometeor types, as well as between PDFs of mass and number mixing ratios for each species, - a distinction that the current SILHS implementation does not make. In CRM simulations that explicitly resolve cloud and precipitation structures, faster falling species, such as rain and graupel, exhibit significantly higher coherence in their vertical distributions than slow falling cloud liquid and ice. These results suggest that to improve the overlap treatment in the sub-column generator, the PDF correlations need to depend on hydrometeor properties, such as fall speeds, in addition to the currently implemented dependency on the turbulent convective length scale.« less

  14. Optimized Vertex Method and Hybrid Reliability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, Steven A.; Krishnamurthy, T.; Mason, B. H.

    2002-01-01

    A method of calculating the fuzzy response of a system is presented. This method, called the Optimized Vertex Method (OVM), is based upon the vertex method but requires considerably fewer function evaluations. The method is demonstrated by calculating the response membership function of strain-energy release rate for a bonded joint with a crack. The possibility of failure of the bonded joint was determined over a range of loads. After completing the possibilistic analysis, the possibilistic (fuzzy) membership functions were transformed to probability density functions and the probability of failure of the bonded joint was calculated. This approach is called a possibility-based hybrid reliability assessment. The possibility and probability of failure are presented and compared to a Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) of the bonded joint.

  15. A Case Series of the Probability Density and Cumulative Distribution of Laryngeal Disease in a Tertiary Care Voice Center.

    PubMed

    de la Fuente, Jaime; Garrett, C Gaelyn; Ossoff, Robert; Vinson, Kim; Francis, David O; Gelbard, Alexander

    2017-11-01

    To examine the distribution of clinic and operative pathology in a tertiary care laryngology practice. Probability density and cumulative distribution analyses (Pareto analysis) was used to rank order laryngeal conditions seen in an outpatient tertiary care laryngology practice and those requiring surgical intervention during a 3-year period. Among 3783 new clinic consultations and 1380 operative procedures, voice disorders were the most common primary diagnostic category seen in clinic (n = 3223), followed by airway (n = 374) and swallowing (n = 186) disorders. Within the voice strata, the most common primary ICD-9 code used was dysphonia (41%), followed by unilateral vocal fold paralysis (UVFP) (9%) and cough (7%). Among new voice patients, 45% were found to have a structural abnormality. The most common surgical indications were laryngotracheal stenosis (37%), followed by recurrent respiratory papillomatosis (18%) and UVFP (17%). Nearly 55% of patients presenting to a tertiary referral laryngology practice did not have an identifiable structural abnormality in the larynx on direct or indirect examination. The distribution of ICD-9 codes requiring surgical intervention was disparate from that seen in clinic. Application of the Pareto principle may improve resource allocation in laryngology, but these initial results require confirmation across multiple institutions.

  16. On the probability density function and characteristic function moments of image steganalysis in the log prediction error wavelet subband

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bao, Zhenkun; Li, Xiaolong; Luo, Xiangyang

    2017-01-01

    Extracting informative statistic features is the most essential technical issue of steganalysis. Among various steganalysis methods, probability density function (PDF) and characteristic function (CF) moments are two important types of features due to the excellent ability for distinguishing the cover images from the stego ones. The two types of features are quite similar in definition. The only difference is that the PDF moments are computed in the spatial domain, while the CF moments are computed in the Fourier-transformed domain. Then, the comparison between PDF and CF moments is an interesting question of steganalysis. Several theoretical results have been derived, and CF moments are proved better than PDF moments in some cases. However, in the log prediction error wavelet subband of wavelet decomposition, some experiments show that the result is opposite and lacks a rigorous explanation. To solve this problem, a comparison result based on the rigorous proof is presented: the first-order PDF moment is proved better than the CF moment, while the second-order CF moment is better than the PDF moment. It tries to open the theoretical discussion on steganalysis and the question of finding suitable statistical features.

  17. Quantitative three-dimensional photoacoustic tomography of the finger joints: an in vivo study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, Yao; Sobel, Eric; Jiang, Huabei

    2009-11-01

    We present for the first time in vivo full three-dimensional (3-D) photoacoustic tomography (PAT) of the distal interphalangeal joint in a human subject. Both absorbed energy density and absorption coefficient images of the joint are quantitatively obtained using our finite-element-based photoacoustic image reconstruction algorithm coupled with the photon diffusion equation. The results show that major anatomical features in the joint along with the side arteries can be imaged with a 1-MHz transducer in a spherical scanning geometry. In addition, the cartilages associated with the joint can be quantitatively differentiated from the phalanx. This in vivo study suggests that the 3-D PAT method described has the potential to be used for early diagnosis of joint diseases such as osteoarthritis and rheumatoid arthritis.

  18. Optimal Joint Remote State Preparation of Arbitrary Equatorial Multi-qudit States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cai, Tao; Jiang, Min

    2017-03-01

    As an important communication technology, quantum information transmission plays an important role in the future network communication. It involves two kinds of transmission ways: quantum teleportation and remote state preparation. In this paper, we put forward a new scheme for optimal joint remote state preparation (JRSP) of an arbitrary equatorial two-qudit state with hybrid dimensions. Moreover, the receiver can reconstruct the target state with 100 % success probability in a deterministic manner via two spatially separated senders. Based on it, we can extend it to joint remote preparation of arbitrary equatorial multi-qudit states with hybrid dimensions using the same strategy.

  19. Design and simulation of stratified probability digital receiver with application to the multipath communication

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Deal, J. H.

    1975-01-01

    One approach to the problem of simplifying complex nonlinear filtering algorithms is through using stratified probability approximations where the continuous probability density functions of certain random variables are represented by discrete mass approximations. This technique is developed in this paper and used to simplify the filtering algorithms developed for the optimum receiver for signals corrupted by both additive and multiplicative noise.

  20. [Conditional probability analysis between tinnitus and comorbidities in patients attending the National Rehabilitation Institute-LGII in the period 2012-2013].

    PubMed

    Gómez Toledo, Verónica; Gutiérrez Farfán, Ileana; Verduzco-Mendoza, Antonio; Arch-Tirado, Emilio

    Tinnitus is defined as the conscious perception of a sensation of sound that occurs in the absence of an external stimulus. This audiological symptom affects 7% to 19% of the adult population. The aim of this study is to describe the associated comorbidities present in patients with tinnitus usingjoint and conditional probability analysis. Patients of both genders, diagnosed with unilateral or bilateral tinnitus, aged between 20 and 45 years, and had a full computerised medical record, were selected. Study groups were formed on the basis of the following clinical aspects: 1) audiological findings; 2) vestibular findings; 3) comorbidities such as, temporomandibular dysfunction, tubal dysfunction, otosclerosis and, 4) triggering factors of tinnitus noise exposure, respiratory tract infection, use of ototoxic and/or drugs. Of the patients with tinnitus, 27 (65%) reported hearing loss, 11 (26.19%) temporomandibular dysfunction, and 11 (26.19%) with vestibular disorders. When performing the joint probability analysis, it was found that the probability that a patient with tinnitus having hearing loss was 2742 0.65, and 2042 0.47 for bilateral type. The result for P (A ∩ B)=30%. Bayes' theorem P (AiB) = P(Ai∩B)P(B) was used, and various probabilities were calculated. Therefore, in patients with temporomandibulardysfunction and vestibular disorders, a posterior probability of P (Aі/B)=31.44% was calculated. Consideration should be given to the joint and conditional probability approach as tools for the study of different pathologies. Copyright © 2016 Academia Mexicana de Cirugía A.C. Publicado por Masson Doyma México S.A. All rights reserved.

  1. Efficient computation of the joint probability of multiple inherited risk alleles from pedigree data.

    PubMed

    Madsen, Thomas; Braun, Danielle; Peng, Gang; Parmigiani, Giovanni; Trippa, Lorenzo

    2018-06-25

    The Elston-Stewart peeling algorithm enables estimation of an individual's probability of harboring germline risk alleles based on pedigree data, and serves as the computational backbone of important genetic counseling tools. However, it remains limited to the analysis of risk alleles at a small number of genetic loci because its computing time grows exponentially with the number of loci considered. We propose a novel, approximate version of this algorithm, dubbed the peeling and paring algorithm, which scales polynomially in the number of loci. This allows extending peeling-based models to include many genetic loci. The algorithm creates a trade-off between accuracy and speed, and allows the user to control this trade-off. We provide exact bounds on the approximation error and evaluate it in realistic simulations. Results show that the loss of accuracy due to the approximation is negligible in important applications. This algorithm will improve genetic counseling tools by increasing the number of pathogenic risk alleles that can be addressed. To illustrate we create an extended five genes version of BRCAPRO, a widely used model for estimating the carrier probabilities of BRCA1 and BRCA2 risk alleles and assess its computational properties. © 2018 WILEY PERIODICALS, INC.

  2. Comparison of methods for estimating density of forest songbirds from point counts

    Treesearch

    Jennifer L. Reidy; Frank R. Thompson; J. Wesley. Bailey

    2011-01-01

    New analytical methods have been promoted for estimating the probability of detection and density of birds from count data but few studies have compared these methods using real data. We compared estimates of detection probability and density from distance and time-removal models and survey protocols based on 5- or 10-min counts and outer radii of 50 or 100 m. We...

  3. Structural behavior of the space shuttle SRM Tang-Clevis joint

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Greene, W. H.; Knight, N. F., Jr.; Stockwell, A. E.

    1986-01-01

    The space shuttle Challenger accident investigation focused on the failure of a tang-clevis joint on the right solid rocket motor. The existence of relative motion between the inner arm of the clevis and the O-ring sealing surface on the tang has been identified as a potential contributor to this failure. This motion can cause the O-rings to become unseated and therefore lose their sealing capability. Finite element structural analyses have been performed to predict both deflections and stresses in the joint under the primary, pressure loading condition. These analyses have demonstrated the difficulty of accurately predicting the structural behavior of the tang-clevis joint. Stresses in the vicinity of the connecting pins, obtained from elastic analyses, considerably exceed the material yield allowables indicating that inelastic analyses are probably necessary. Two modifications have been proposed to control the relative motion between the inner clevis arm and the tang at the O-ring sealing surface. One modification, referred to as the capture feature, uses additional material on the inside of the tang to restrict motion of the inner clevis arm. The other modification uses external stiffening rings above and below the joint to control the local bending in the shell near the joint. Both of these modifications are shown to be effective in controlling the relative motion in the joint.

  4. Structural behavior of the space shuttle SRM tang-clevis joint

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Greene, William H.; Knight, Norman F., Jr.; Stockwell, Alan E.

    1988-01-01

    The space shuttle Challenger accident investigation focused on the failure of a tang-clevis joint on the right solid rocket motor. The existence of relative motion between the inner arm of the clevis and the O-ring sealing surface on the tang has been identified as a potential contributor to this failure. This motion can cause the O-rings to become unseated and therefore lose their sealing capability. Finite element structural analyses have been performed to predict both deflections and stresses in the joint under the primary, pressure loading condition. These analyses have demonstrated the difficulty of accurately predicting the structural behavior of the tang-clevis joint. Stresses in the vicinity of the connecting pins, obtained from elastic analyses, considerably exceed the material yield allowables indicating that inelastic analyses are probably necessary. Two modifications have been proposed to control the relative motion between the inner clevis arm and the tang at the O-ring sealing surface. One modification, referred to as the capture feature, uses additional material on the inside of the tang to restrict motion of the inner clevis arm. The other modification uses external stiffening rings above and below the joint to control the local bending in the shell near the joint. Both of these modifications are shown to be effective in controlling the relative motion in the joint.

  5. Partial least squares density modeling (PLS-DM) - a new class-modeling strategy applied to the authentication of olives in brine by near-infrared spectroscopy.

    PubMed

    Oliveri, Paolo; López, M Isabel; Casolino, M Chiara; Ruisánchez, Itziar; Callao, M Pilar; Medini, Luca; Lanteri, Silvia

    2014-12-03

    A new class-modeling method, referred to as partial least squares density modeling (PLS-DM), is presented. The method is based on partial least squares (PLS), using a distance-based sample density measurement as the response variable. Potential function probability density is subsequently calculated on PLS scores and used, jointly with residual Q statistics, to develop efficient class models. The influence of adjustable model parameters on the resulting performances has been critically studied by means of cross-validation and application of the Pareto optimality criterion. The method has been applied to verify the authenticity of olives in brine from cultivar Taggiasca, based on near-infrared (NIR) spectra recorded on homogenized solid samples. Two independent test sets were used for model validation. The final optimal model was characterized by high efficiency and equilibrate balance between sensitivity and specificity values, if compared with those obtained by application of well-established class-modeling methods, such as soft independent modeling of class analogy (SIMCA) and unequal dispersed classes (UNEQ). Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Estimating the probability that the Taser directly causes human ventricular fibrillation.

    PubMed

    Sun, H; Haemmerich, D; Rahko, P S; Webster, J G

    2010-04-01

    This paper describes the first methodology and results for estimating the order of probability for Tasers directly causing human ventricular fibrillation (VF). The probability of an X26 Taser causing human VF was estimated using: (1) current density near the human heart estimated by using 3D finite-element (FE) models; (2) prior data of the maximum dart-to-heart distances that caused VF in pigs; (3) minimum skin-to-heart distances measured in erect humans by echocardiography; and (4) dart landing distribution estimated from police reports. The estimated mean probability of human VF was 0.001 for data from a pig having a chest wall resected to the ribs and 0.000006 for data from a pig with no resection when inserting a blunt probe. The VF probability for a given dart location decreased with the dart-to-heart horizontal distance (radius) on the skin surface.

  7. Thermomechanical treatment of welded joints of aluminum-lithium alloys modified by scandium

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Malikov, A. G.

    2017-12-01

    At present, the aeronautical equipment manufacture involves up-to-date high-strength aluminum alloys of decreased density resulting from the lithium admixture. Various technologies of fusible welding of these alloys are being developed. The paper presents experimental investigations of the optimization of the laser welding of aluminum alloys with the scandium-modified welded joint after thermomechanical treatment. The effect of scandium on the micro- and macrostructure is studied along with strength characteristics of the welded joint. It is found that thermomechanical treatment allows us to obtain the strength of the welded joint 0.89 for the Al-Mg-Li system and 0.99 for the Al-Cu-Li system with the welded joint modified by scandium in comparison with the base alloy after treatment.

  8. Understanding the joint behavior of temperature and precipitation for climate change impact studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rana, Arun; Moradkhani, Hamid; Qin, Yueyue

    2017-07-01

    The multiple downscaled scenario products allow us to assess the uncertainty of the variations of precipitation and temperature in the current and future periods. Probabilistic assessments of both climatic variables help better understand the interdependence of the two and thus, in turn, help in assessing the future with confidence. In the present study, we use ensemble of statistically downscaled precipitation and temperature from various models. The dataset used is multi-model ensemble of 10 global climate models (GCMs) downscaled product from CMIP5 daily dataset using the Bias Correction and Spatial Downscaling (BCSD) technique, generated at Portland State University. The multi-model ensemble of both precipitation and temperature is evaluated for dry and wet periods for 10 sub-basins across Columbia River Basin (CRB). Thereafter, copula is applied to establish the joint distribution of two variables on multi-model ensemble data. The joint distribution is then used to estimate the change in trends of said variables in future, along with estimation of the probabilities of the given change. The joint distribution trends vary, but certainly positive, for dry and wet periods in sub-basins of CRB. Dry season, generally, is indicating a higher positive change in precipitation than temperature (as compared to historical) across sub-basins with wet season inferring otherwise. Probabilities of changes in future, as estimated from the joint distribution, indicate varied degrees and forms during dry season whereas the wet season is rather constant across all the sub-basins.

  9. Probable flood predictions in ungauged coastal basins of El Salvador

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Friedel, M.J.; Smith, M.E.; Chica, A.M.E.; Litke, D.

    2008-01-01

    A regionalization procedure is presented and used to predict probable flooding in four ungauged coastal river basins of El Salvador: Paz, Jiboa, Grande de San Miguel, and Goascoran. The flood-prediction problem is sequentially solved for two regions: upstream mountains and downstream alluvial plains. In the upstream mountains, a set of rainfall-runoff parameter values and recurrent peak-flow discharge hydrographs are simultaneously estimated for 20 tributary-basin models. Application of dissimilarity equations among tributary basins (soft prior information) permitted development of a parsimonious parameter structure subject to information content in the recurrent peak-flow discharge values derived using regression equations based on measurements recorded outside the ungauged study basins. The estimated joint set of parameter values formed the basis from which probable minimum and maximum peak-flow discharge limits were then estimated revealing that prediction uncertainty increases with basin size. In the downstream alluvial plain, model application of the estimated minimum and maximum peak-flow hydrographs facilitated simulation of probable 100-year flood-flow depths in confined canyons and across unconfined coastal alluvial plains. The regionalization procedure provides a tool for hydrologic risk assessment and flood protection planning that is not restricted to the case presented herein. ?? 2008 ASCE.

  10. Lithospheric density structure beneath the Tarim basin and surroundings, northwestern China, from the joint inversion of gravity and topography

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Deng, Yangfan; Levandowski, William Brower; Kusky, Tim

    2017-01-01

    Intraplate strain generally focuses in discrete zones, but despite the profound impact of this partitioning on global tectonics, geodynamics, and seismic hazard, the processes by which deformation becomes localized are not well understood. Such heterogeneous intraplate strain is exemplified in central Asia, where the Indo-Eurasian collision has caused widespread deformation while the Tarim block has experienced minimal Cenozoic shortening. The apparent stability of Tarim may arise either because strain is dominantly accommodated by pre-existing faults in the continental suture zones that bound it—essentially discretizing Eurasia into microplates—or because the lithospheric-scale strength (i.e., viscosity) of the Tarim block is greater than its surroundings. Here, we jointly analyze seismic velocity, gravity, topography, and temperature to develop a 3-D density model of the crust and upper mantle in this region. The Tarim crust is characterized by high density, vs, vp, and vp/vs, consistent with a dominantly mafic composition and with the presence of an oceanic plateau beneath Tarim. Low-density but high-velocity mantle lithosphere beneath southern (southwestern) Tarim underlies a suite of Permian plume-related mafic intrusions and A-type granites sourced in previously depleted mantle lithosphere; we posit that this region was further depleted, dehydrated, and strengthened by Permian plume magmatism. The actively deforming western and southern margins of Tarim—the Tien Shan, Kunlun Shan, and Altyn Tagh fault—are underlain by buoyant upper mantle with low velocity; we hypothesize that this material has been hydrated by mantle-derived fluids that have preferentially migrated along Paleozoic continental sutures. Such hydrous material should be weak, and herein strain focuses there because of lithospheric-scale variations in rheology rather than the pre-existence of faults in the brittle crust. Thus this world-class example of strain partitioning arises not

  11. Bone structure of the temporo-mandibular joint in the individuals aged 18-25.

    PubMed

    Parafiniuk, M; Gutsch-Trepka, A; Trepka, S; Sycz, K; Wolski, S; Parafiniuk, W

    1998-01-01

    Osteohistometric studies were performed in 15 female and 15 male cadavers aged 18-25. Condyloid process and right and left acetabulum of the temporo-mandibular joint have been studied. Density has been investigated using monitor screen linked with microscope (magnification 80x). Density in the spongy part of the condyloid process was 26.67-26.77%; in the subchondrial layer--72.13-72.72%, and in the acetabular wall 75.03-75.91%. Microscopic structure of the bones of the temporo-mandibular joint revealed no differences when compared with images of compact and cancellous bone shown in the histology textbooks. Sex and the side of the body had no influence on microscopic image and proportional bone density. Isles of chondrocytes in the trabeculae of the spongy structure of the condyloid process were found in 4 cases and isles of the condensed bone resembling the compact pattern in 7 cases.

  12. Polarity effect of electromigration on mechanical properties of lead-free solder joints

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ren, Fei

    The trend of electronic packaging is to package the chips and the associated interconnections in a compact way that allows high speed operation; that allows for sufficient heat removal; that can withstand the thermal cycling associated with the turning on and turning off of the circuits; and that protects the circuits from environmental attack. These goals require that flip chip solder joints have higher resistance to electromigration, stronger mechanical property to sustain thermal mechanical stress, and are lead-free materials to satisfy environment and health concern. With lots of work on chemical reaction, electromigration and mechanical study in flip chip solder joints, however, the interaction between different driving forces is still little known. As a matter of fact, the combination study of chemical, electrical and mechanical is more and more significant to the understanding of the behavior of flip chip solder joints. In this dissertation, I developed one dimensional Cu (wire)-eutectic SnAgCu(ball)-Cu(wire) structure to investigate the interaction between electrical and mechanical force in lead-free solder joints. Electromigration was first conducted. The mechanical behaviors of solder joints before, after, and during electromigration were examined. Electrical current and mechanical stress were applied either in serial or in parallel to the solder joints. Tensile, creep, and drop tests, combined with different electrical current densities (1˜5x10 3A/cm2) and different stressing time (3˜144 hours), have been performed to study the effect of electromigration on the mechanical behavior of solder joints. Nano-indentation test was conducted to study the localized mechanical property of IMC at both interfaces in nanometer scale. Fracture images help analyze the failure mechanism of solder joints driven by both electrical and mechanical forces. The combination study shows a strain build-up during electromigration. Furthermore, a ductile-to-brittle transition in

  13. Thermal Fatigue Study of W/cu Joint

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Fu; Wu, Jihong; Xu, Zengyu; Xu, Ying

    2003-06-01

    HHFC mock-ups with a structure of W/Cu/SS were developed by hot isostatic pressing (HIP). The performance of the W/Cu joint under high heat loads was tested using an electron beam. The size of specimens for heat load tests was 25×25 mm and the size of beam spot on the specimen surface was 22 mm in diameter. During heat load test, the specimens were water-cooled. Thermal fatigue test were conducted at power density of 8.7 MW/m2 with pulse duration of 20 seconds and interval of 20 seconds. After 1000 cycles of tests, no cracks and failure were found in the W/Cu joint. The thermal performance was also investigated in the range of 1 ~ 9 MW/m2.

  14. Probability density functions of power-in-bucket and power-in-fiber for an infrared laser beam propagating in the maritime environment.

    PubMed

    Nelson, Charles; Avramov-Zamurovic, Svetlana; Korotkova, Olga; Malek-Madani, Reza; Sova, Raymond; Davidson, Frederic

    2013-11-01

    Irradiance fluctuations of an infrared laser beam from a shore-to-ship data link ranging from 5.1 to 17.8 km are compared to lognormal (LN), gamma-gamma (GG) with aperture averaging, and gamma-Laguerre (GL) distributions. From our data analysis, the LN and GG probability density function (PDF) models were generally in good agreement in near-weak to moderate fluctuations. This was also true in moderate to strong fluctuations when the spatial coherence radius was smaller than the detector aperture size, with the exception of the 2.54 cm power-in-bucket (PIB) where the LN PDF model fit best. For moderate to strong fluctuations, the GG PDF model tended to outperform the LN PDF model when the spatial coherence radius was greater than the detector aperture size. Additionally, the GL PDF model had the best or next to best overall fit in all cases with the exception of the 2.54 cm PIB where the scintillation index was highest. The GL PDF model also appears to be robust for off-of-beam center laser beam applications.

  15. Modeling the Effect of Density-Dependent Chemical Interference Upon Seed Germination

    PubMed Central

    Sinkkonen, Aki

    2005-01-01

    A mathematical model is presented to estimate the effects of phytochemicals on seed germination. According to the model, phytochemicals tend to prevent germination at low seed densities. The model predicts that at high seed densities they may increase the probability of seed germination and the number of germinating seeds. Hence, the effects are reminiscent of the density-dependent effects of allelochemicals on plant growth, but the involved variables are germination probability and seedling number. The results imply that it should be possible to bypass inhibitory effects of allelopathy in certain agricultural practices and to increase the efficiency of nature conservation in several plant communities. PMID:19330163

  16. Modeling the Effect of Density-Dependent Chemical Interference upon Seed Germination

    PubMed Central

    Sinkkonen, Aki

    2006-01-01

    A mathematical model is presented to estimate the effects of phytochemicals on seed germination. According to the model, phytochemicals tend to prevent germination at low seed densities. The model predicts that at high seed densities they may increase the probability of seed germination and the number of germinating seeds. Hence, the effects are reminiscent of the density-dependent effects of allelochemicals on plant growth, but the involved variables are germination probability and seedling number. The results imply that it should be possible to bypass inhibitory effects of allelopathy in certain agricultural practices and to increase the efficiency of nature conservation in several plant communities. PMID:18648596

  17. How Life History Can Sway the Fixation Probability of Mutants

    PubMed Central

    Li, Xiang-Yi; Kurokawa, Shun; Giaimo, Stefano; Traulsen, Arne

    2016-01-01

    In this work, we study the effects of demographic structure on evolutionary dynamics when selection acts on reproduction, survival, or both. In contrast to the previously discovered pattern that the fixation probability of a neutral mutant decreases while the population becomes younger, we show that a mutant with a constant selective advantage may have a maximum or a minimum of the fixation probability in populations with an intermediate fraction of young individuals. This highlights the importance of life history and demographic structure in studying evolutionary dynamics. We also illustrate the fundamental differences between selection on reproduction and selection on survival when age structure is present. In addition, we evaluate the relative importance of size and structure of the population in determining the fixation probability of the mutant. Our work lays the foundation for also studying density- and frequency-dependent effects in populations when demographic structures cannot be neglected. PMID:27129737

  18. Hydrogen effects in duplex stainless steel welded joints - electrochemical studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Michalska, J.; Łabanowski, J.; Ćwiek, J.

    2012-05-01

    In this work results on the influence of hydrogen on passivity and corrosion resistance of 2205 duplex stainless steel (DSS) welded joints are described. The results were discussed by taking into account three different areas on the welded joint: weld metal (WM), heat-affected zone (HAZ) and parent metal. The corrosion resistance was qualified with the polarization curves registered in a synthetic sea water. The conclusion is that, hydrogen may seriously deteriorate the passive film stability and corrosion resistance to pitting of 2205 DSS welded joints. The presence of hydrogen in passive films increases corrosion current density and decreases the potential of the film breakdown. It was also found that degree of susceptibility to hydrogen degradation was dependent on the hydrogen charging conditions. WM region has been revealed as the most sensitive to hydrogen action.

  19. Probability theory for 3-layer remote sensing in ideal gas law environment.

    PubMed

    Ben-David, Avishai; Davidson, Charles E

    2013-08-26

    We extend the probability model for 3-layer radiative transfer [Opt. Express 20, 10004 (2012)] to ideal gas conditions where a correlation exists between transmission and temperature of each of the 3 layers. The effect on the probability density function for the at-sensor radiances is surprisingly small, and thus the added complexity of addressing the correlation can be avoided. The small overall effect is due to (a) small perturbations by the correlation on variance population parameters and (b) cancellation of perturbation terms that appear with opposite signs in the model moment expressions.

  20. 1997 William J. Stickel Gold Award. Morphological and biochemical properties of metatarsophalangeal joint cartilage.

    PubMed

    Muehleman, C; Chubinskaya, S; Cole, A A; Noskina, Y; Arsenis, C; Kuettner, K E

    1997-10-01

    Although there is sparse information concerning the properties of foot-joint cartilages, knowledge of the morphology and biochemistry of these cartilages is important in the study of changes that occur in the development of osteoarthritis. Normal first and fifth metatarsophalangeal joints were chosen for comparison because of the difference between these two joints in the prevalence of osteoarthritis, particularly with advancing age. The authors' study shows that there is no age-related decrease in articular-cartilage thickness; however, there is an age-related decrease in the chondrocyte density in the superficial zone in both joints. There is, however, a difference between the two joints in the level of expression of matrix-degrading enzymes. This difference may indicate differences in specific chondrocyte activity that precedes or accompanies the development of osteoarthritis or other degenerative morphological changes.

  1. Joint Tomographic Imaging of 3-­-D Density Structure Using Cosmic Ray Muons and High-­-Precision Gravity Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rowe, C. A.; Guardincerri, E.; Roy, M.; Dichter, M.

    2015-12-01

    As part of the CO2 reservoir muon imaging project headed by the Pacific Northwest National Laboraory (PNNL) under the U.S. Department of Energy Subsurface Technology and Engineering Research, Development, and Demonstration (SubTER) iniative, Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) and the University of New Mexico (UNM) plan to leverage the recently decommissioned and easily accessible Tunnel Vault on LANL property to test the complementary modeling strengths of muon radiography and high-precision gravity surveys. This tunnel extends roughly 300 feet into the hillside, with a maximum depth below the surface of approximately 300 feet. We will deploy LANL's Mini Muon Tracker (MMT), a detector consisting of 576 drift tubes arranged in alternating parallel planes of orthogonally oriented tubes. This detector is capable of precise determination of trajectories for incoming muons with angular resolution of a few milliradians. We will deploy the MMT at several locations within the tunnel, to obtain numerous crossing muon trajectories and permit a 3D tomographic image of the overburden to be built. In the same project, UNM will use a Scintrex digital gravimeter to collect high-precision gravity data from a dense grid on the hill slope above the tunnel as well as within the tunnel itself. This will provide both direct and differential gravity readings for density modeling of the overburden. By leveraging detailed geologic knowledge of the canyon and the lithology overlying the tunnel, as well as the structural elements, elevations and blueprints of the tunnel itself, we will evaluate the muon and gravity data both independently and in a simultaneous, joint inversion to build a combined 3D density model of the overburden.

  2. A removal model for estimating detection probabilities from point-count surveys

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Farnsworth, G.L.; Pollock, K.H.; Nichols, J.D.; Simons, T.R.; Hines, J.E.; Sauer, J.R.

    2000-01-01

    We adapted a removal model to estimate detection probability during point count surveys. The model assumes one factor influencing detection during point counts is the singing frequency of birds. This may be true for surveys recording forest songbirds when most detections are by sound. The model requires counts to be divided into several time intervals. We used time intervals of 2, 5, and 10 min to develop a maximum-likelihood estimator for the detectability of birds during such surveys. We applied this technique to data from bird surveys conducted in Great Smoky Mountains National Park. We used model selection criteria to identify whether detection probabilities varied among species, throughout the morning, throughout the season, and among different observers. The overall detection probability for all birds was 75%. We found differences in detection probability among species. Species that sing frequently such as Winter Wren and Acadian Flycatcher had high detection probabilities (about 90%) and species that call infrequently such as Pileated Woodpecker had low detection probability (36%). We also found detection probabilities varied with the time of day for some species (e.g. thrushes) and between observers for other species. This method of estimating detectability during point count surveys offers a promising new approach to using count data to address questions of the bird abundance, density, and population trends.

  3. Encircling the dark: constraining dark energy via cosmic density in spheres

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Codis, S.; Pichon, C.; Bernardeau, F.; Uhlemann, C.; Prunet, S.

    2016-08-01

    The recently published analytic probability density function for the mildly non-linear cosmic density field within spherical cells is used to build a simple but accurate maximum likelihood estimate for the redshift evolution of the variance of the density, which, as expected, is shown to have smaller relative error than the sample variance. This estimator provides a competitive probe for the equation of state of dark energy, reaching a few per cent accuracy on wp and wa for a Euclid-like survey. The corresponding likelihood function can take into account the configuration of the cells via their relative separations. A code to compute one-cell-density probability density functions for arbitrary initial power spectrum, top-hat smoothing and various spherical-collapse dynamics is made available online, so as to provide straightforward means of testing the effect of alternative dark energy models and initial power spectra on the low-redshift matter distribution.

  4. Probabilities for gravitational lensing by point masses in a locally inhomogeneous universe

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Isaacson, Jeffrey A.; Canizares, Claude R.

    1989-01-01

    Probability functions for gravitational lensing by point masses that incorporate Poisson statistics and flux conservation are formulated in the Dyer-Roeder construction. Optical depths to lensing for distant sources are calculated using both the method of Press and Gunn (1973) which counts lenses in an otherwise empty cone, and the method of Ehlers and Schneider (1986) which projects lensing cross sections onto the source sphere. These are then used as parameters of the probability density for lensing in the case of a critical (q0 = 1/2) Friedmann universe. A comparison of the probability functions indicates that the effects of angle-averaging can be well approximated by adjusting the average magnification along a random line of sight so as to conserve flux.

  5. Friction stir welding of T joints of dissimilar aluminum alloy: A review

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thakare, Shrikant B.; Kalyankar, Vivek D.

    2018-04-01

    Aluminum alloys are preferred in the mechanical design due to their advantages like high strength, good corrosion resistance, low density and good weldability. In various industrial applications T joints configuration of aluminum alloys are used. In different fields, T joints having skin (horizontal sheet) strengthen by stringers (vertical sheets) were used to increase the strength of structure without increasing the weight. T joints are usually carried out by fusion welding which has limitations in joining of aluminum alloy due to significant distortion and metallurgical defects. Some aluminum alloys are even non weldable by fusion welding. The friction stir welding (FSW) has an excellent replacement of conventional fusion welding for T joints. In this article, FSW of T joints is reviewed by considering aluminum alloy and various joint geometries for defect analysis. The previous experiments carried out on T joints shows the factors such as tool geometry, fixturing device and joint configurations plays significant role in defect free joints. It is essential to investigate the material flow during FSW to know joining mechanism and the formation of joint. In this study the defect occurred in the FSW are studied for various joint configurations and parameters. Also the effect of the parameters and defects occurs on the tensile strength are studied. It is concluded that the T-joints of different joint configurations can be pretended successfully. Comparing to base metal some loss in tensile strength was observed in the weldments as well as overall reduction of the hardness in the thermos mechanically affected zone also observed.

  6. Assessment of a Three-Dimensional Line-of-Response Probability Density Function System Matrix for PET

    PubMed Central

    Yao, Rutao; Ramachandra, Ranjith M.; Mahajan, Neeraj; Rathod, Vinay; Gunasekar, Noel; Panse, Ashish; Ma, Tianyu; Jian, Yiqiang; Yan, Jianhua; Carson, Richard E.

    2012-01-01

    To achieve optimal PET image reconstruction through better system modeling, we developed a system matrix that is based on the probability density function for each line of response (LOR-PDF). The LOR-PDFs are grouped by LOR-to-detector incident angles to form a highly compact system matrix. The system matrix was implemented in the MOLAR list mode reconstruction algorithm for a small animal PET scanner. The impact of LOR-PDF on reconstructed image quality was assessed qualitatively as well as quantitatively in terms of contrast recovery coefficient (CRC) and coefficient of variance (COV), and its performance was compared with a fixed Gaussian (iso-Gaussian) line spread function. The LOR-PDFs of 3 coincidence signal emitting sources, 1) ideal positron emitter that emits perfect back-to-back γ rays (γγ) in air; 2) fluorine-18 (18F) nuclide in water; and 3) oxygen-15 (15O) nuclide in water, were derived, and assessed with simulated and experimental phantom data. The derived LOR-PDFs showed anisotropic and asymmetric characteristics dependent on LOR-detector angle, coincidence emitting source, and the medium, consistent with common PET physical principles. The comparison of the iso-Gaussian function and LOR-PDF showed that: 1) without positron range and acolinearity effects, the LOR-PDF achieved better or similar trade-offs of contrast recovery and noise for objects of 4-mm radius or larger, and this advantage extended to smaller objects (e.g. 2-mm radius sphere, 0.6-mm radius hot-rods) at higher iteration numbers; and 2) with positron range and acolinearity effects, the iso-Gaussian achieved similar or better resolution recovery depending on the significance of positron range effect. We conclude that the 3-D LOR-PDF approach is an effective method to generate an accurate and compact system matrix. However, when used directly in expectation-maximization based list-mode iterative reconstruction algorithms such as MOLAR, its superiority is not clear. For this

  7. Comparison of sticking probabilities of metal atoms in magnetron sputtering deposition of CuZnSnS films

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sasaki, K.; Kikuchi, S.

    2014-10-01

    In this work, we compared the sticking probabilities of Cu, Zn, and Sn atoms in magnetron sputtering deposition of CZTS films. The evaluations of the sticking probabilities were based on the temporal decays of the Cu, Zn, and Sn densities in the afterglow, which were measured by laser-induced fluorescence spectroscopy. Linear relationships were found between the discharge pressure and the lifetimes of the atom densities. According to Chantry, the sticking probability is evaluated from the extrapolated lifetime at the zero pressure, which is given by 2l0 (2 - α) / (v α) with α, l0, and v being the sticking probability, the ratio between the volume and the surface area of the chamber, and the mean velocity, respectively. The ratio of the extrapolated lifetimes observed experimentally was τCu :τSn :τZn = 1 : 1 . 3 : 1 . This ratio coincides well with the ratio of the reciprocals of their mean velocities (1 /vCu : 1 /vSn : 1 /vZn = 1 . 00 : 1 . 37 : 1 . 01). Therefore, the present experimental result suggests that the sticking probabilities of Cu, Sn, and Zn are roughly the same.

  8. Applications of the line-of-response probability density function resolution model in PET list mode reconstruction.

    PubMed

    Jian, Y; Yao, R; Mulnix, T; Jin, X; Carson, R E

    2015-01-07

    Resolution degradation in PET image reconstruction can be caused by inaccurate modeling of the physical factors in the acquisition process. Resolution modeling (RM) is a common technique that takes into account the resolution degrading factors in the system matrix. Our previous work has introduced a probability density function (PDF) method of deriving the resolution kernels from Monte Carlo simulation and parameterizing the LORs to reduce the number of kernels needed for image reconstruction. In addition, LOR-PDF allows different PDFs to be applied to LORs from different crystal layer pairs of the HRRT. In this study, a thorough test was performed with this new model (LOR-PDF) applied to two PET scanners-the HRRT and Focus-220. A more uniform resolution distribution was observed in point source reconstructions by replacing the spatially-invariant kernels with the spatially-variant LOR-PDF. Specifically, from the center to the edge of radial field of view (FOV) of the HRRT, the measured in-plane FWHMs of point sources in a warm background varied slightly from 1.7 mm to 1.9 mm in LOR-PDF reconstructions. In Minihot and contrast phantom reconstructions, LOR-PDF resulted in up to 9% higher contrast at any given noise level than image-space resolution model. LOR-PDF also has the advantage in performing crystal-layer-dependent resolution modeling. The contrast improvement by using LOR-PDF was verified statistically by replicate reconstructions. In addition, [(11)C]AFM rats imaged on the HRRT and [(11)C]PHNO rats imaged on the Focus-220 were utilized to demonstrated the advantage of the new model. Higher contrast between high-uptake regions of only a few millimeter diameter and the background was observed in LOR-PDF reconstruction than in other methods.

  9. Applications of the line-of-response probability density function resolution model in PET list mode reconstruction

    PubMed Central

    Jian, Y; Yao, R; Mulnix, T; Jin, X; Carson, R E

    2016-01-01

    Resolution degradation in PET image reconstruction can be caused by inaccurate modeling of the physical factors in the acquisition process. Resolution modeling (RM) is a common technique that takes into account the resolution degrading factors in the system matrix. Our previous work has introduced a probability density function (PDF) method of deriving the resolution kernels from Monte Carlo simulation and parameterizing the LORs to reduce the number of kernels needed for image reconstruction. In addition, LOR-PDF allows different PDFs to be applied to LORs from different crystal layer pairs of the HRRT. In this study, a thorough test was performed with this new model (LOR-PDF) applied to two PET scanners - the HRRT and Focus-220. A more uniform resolution distribution was observed in point source reconstructions by replacing the spatially-invariant kernels with the spatially-variant LOR-PDF. Specifically, from the center to the edge of radial field of view (FOV) of the HRRT, the measured in-plane FWHMs of point sources in a warm background varied slightly from 1.7 mm to 1.9 mm in LOR-PDF reconstructions. In Minihot and contrast phantom reconstructions, LOR-PDF resulted in up to 9% higher contrast at any given noise level than image-space resolution model. LOR-PDF also has the advantage in performing crystal-layer-dependent resolution modeling. The contrast improvement by using LOR-PDF was verified statistically by replicate reconstructions. In addition, [11C]AFM rats imaged on the HRRT and [11C]PHNO rats imaged on the Focus-220 were utilized to demonstrated the advantage of the new model. Higher contrast between high-uptake regions of only a few millimeter diameter and the background was observed in LOR-PDF reconstruction than in other methods. PMID:25490063

  10. Information Density and Syntactic Repetition.

    PubMed

    Temperley, David; Gildea, Daniel

    2015-11-01

    In noun phrase (NP) coordinate constructions (e.g., NP and NP), there is a strong tendency for the syntactic structure of the second conjunct to match that of the first; the second conjunct in such constructions is therefore low in syntactic information. The theory of uniform information density predicts that low-information syntactic constructions will be counterbalanced by high information in other aspects of that part of the sentence, and high-information constructions will be counterbalanced by other low-information components. Three predictions follow: (a) lexical probabilities (measured by N-gram probabilities and head-dependent probabilities) will be lower in second conjuncts than first conjuncts; (b) lexical probabilities will be lower in matching second conjuncts (those whose syntactic expansions match the first conjunct) than nonmatching ones; and (c) syntactic repetition should be especially common for low-frequency NP expansions. Corpus analysis provides support for all three of these predictions. Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  11. Experimental joint weak measurement on a photon pair as a probe of Hardy's paradox.

    PubMed

    Lundeen, J S; Steinberg, A M

    2009-01-16

    It has been proposed that the ability to perform joint weak measurements on postselected systems would allow us to study quantum paradoxes. These measurements can investigate the history of those particles that contribute to the paradoxical outcome. Here we experimentally perform weak measurements of joint (i.e., nonlocal) observables. In an implementation of Hardy's paradox, we weakly measure the locations of two photons, the subject of the conflicting statements behind the paradox. Remarkably, the resulting weak probabilities verify all of these statements but, at the same time, resolve the paradox.

  12. Biomechanical Comparison of External Fixation and Compression Screws for Transverse Tarsal Joint Arthrodesis.

    PubMed

    Latt, L Daniel; Glisson, Richard R; Adams, Samuel B; Schuh, Reinhard; Narron, John A; Easley, Mark E

    2015-10-01

    Transverse tarsal joint arthrodesis is commonly performed in the operative treatment of hindfoot arthritis and acquired flatfoot deformity. While fixation is typically achieved using screws, failure to obtain and maintain joint compression sometimes occurs, potentially leading to nonunion. External fixation is an alternate method of achieving arthrodesis site compression and has the advantage of allowing postoperative compression adjustment when necessary. However, its performance relative to standard screw fixation has not been quantified in this application. We hypothesized that external fixation could provide transverse tarsal joint compression exceeding that possible with screw fixation. Transverse tarsal joint fixation was performed sequentially, first with a circular external fixator and then with compression screws, on 9 fresh-frozen cadaveric legs. The external fixator was attached in abutting rings fixed to the tibia and the hindfoot and a third anterior ring parallel to the hindfoot ring using transverse wires and half-pins in the tibial diaphysis, calcaneus, and metatarsals. Screw fixation comprised two 4.3 mm headless compression screws traversing the talonavicular joint and 1 across the calcaneocuboid joint. Compressive forces generated during incremental fixator foot ring displacement to 20 mm and incremental screw tightening were measured using a custom-fabricated instrumented miniature external fixator spanning the transverse tarsal joint. The maximum compressive force generated by the external fixator averaged 186% of that produced by the screws (range, 104%-391%). Fixator compression surpassed that obtainable with screws at 12 mm of ring displacement and decreased when the tibial ring was detached. No correlation was found between bone density and the compressive force achievable by either fusion method. The compression across the transverse tarsal joint that can be obtained with a circular external fixator including a tibial ring exceeds that

  13. Monte Carlo based protocol for cell survival and tumour control probability in BNCT.

    PubMed

    Ye, S J

    1999-02-01

    A mathematical model to calculate the theoretical cell survival probability (nominally, the cell survival fraction) is developed to evaluate preclinical treatment conditions for boron neutron capture therapy (BNCT). A treatment condition is characterized by the neutron beam spectra, single or bilateral exposure, and the choice of boron carrier drug (boronophenylalanine (BPA) or boron sulfhydryl hydride (BSH)). The cell survival probability defined from Poisson statistics is expressed with the cell-killing yield, the 10B(n,alpha)7Li reaction density, and the tolerable neutron fluence. The radiation transport calculation from the neutron source to tumours is carried out using Monte Carlo methods: (i) reactor-based BNCT facility modelling to yield the neutron beam library at an irradiation port; (ii) dosimetry to limit the neutron fluence below a tolerance dose (10.5 Gy-Eq); (iii) calculation of the 10B(n,alpha)7Li reaction density in tumours. A shallow surface tumour could be effectively treated by single exposure producing an average cell survival probability of 10(-3)-10(-5) for probable ranges of the cell-killing yield for the two drugs, while a deep tumour will require bilateral exposure to achieve comparable cell kills at depth. With very pure epithermal beams eliminating thermal, low epithermal and fast neutrons, the cell survival can be decreased by factors of 2-10 compared with the unmodified neutron spectrum. A dominant effect of cell-killing yield on tumour cell survival demonstrates the importance of choice of boron carrier drug. However, these calculations do not indicate an unambiguous preference for one drug, due to the large overlap of tumour cell survival in the probable ranges of the cell-killing yield for the two drugs. The cell survival value averaged over a bulky tumour volume is used to predict the overall BNCT therapeutic efficacy, using a simple model of tumour control probability (TCP).

  14. PROBABILITY SURVEYS, CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES, AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Asscssment Program EMAP) can be analyzed with a conditional probability analysis (CPA) to conduct quantitative probabi...

  15. Density PDFs of diffuse gas in the Milky Way

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berkhuijsen, E. M.; Fletcher, A.

    2012-09-01

    The probability distribution functions (PDFs) of the average densities of the diffuse ionized gas (DIG) and the diffuse atomic gas are close to lognormal, especially when lines of sight at |b| < 5∘ and |b|≥ 5∘ are considered separately. Our results provide strong support for the existence of a lognormal density PDF in the diffuse ISM, consistent with a turbulent origin of density structure in the diffuse gas.

  16. Significance of stress transfer in time-dependent earthquake probability calculations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Parsons, T.

    2005-01-01

    A sudden change in stress is seen to modify earthquake rates, but should it also revise earthquake probability? Data used to derive input parameters permits an array of forecasts; so how large a static stress change is require to cause a statistically significant earthquake probability change? To answer that question, effects of parameter and philosophical choices are examined through all phases of sample calculations, Drawing at random from distributions of recurrence-aperiodicity pairs identifies many that recreate long paleoseismic and historic earthquake catalogs. Probability density funtions built from the recurrence-aperiodicity pairs give the range of possible earthquake forecasts under a point process renewal model. Consequences of choices made in stress transfer calculations, such as different slip models, fault rake, dip, and friction are, tracked. For interactions among large faults, calculated peak stress changes may be localized, with most of the receiving fault area changed less than the mean. Thus, to avoid overstating probability change on segments, stress change values should be drawn from a distribution reflecting the spatial pattern rather than using the segment mean. Disparity resulting from interaction probability methodology is also examined. For a fault with a well-understood earthquake history, a minimum stress change to stressing rate ratio of 10:1 to 20:1 is required to significantly skew probabilities with >80-85% confidence. That ratio must be closer to 50:1 to exceed 90-95% confidence levels. Thus revision to earthquake probability is achievable when a perturbing event is very close to the fault in question or the tectonic stressing rate is low.

  17. A biology-driven receptor model for daily pollen allergy risk in Korea based on Weibull probability density function

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Kyu Rang; Kim, Mijin; Choe, Ho-Seong; Han, Mae Ja; Lee, Hye-Rim; Oh, Jae-Won; Kim, Baek-Jo

    2017-02-01

    Pollen is an important cause of respiratory allergic reactions. As individual sanitation has improved, allergy risk has increased, and this trend is expected to continue due to climate change. Atmospheric pollen concentration is highly influenced by weather conditions. Regression analysis and modeling of the relationships between airborne pollen concentrations and weather conditions were performed to analyze and forecast pollen conditions. Traditionally, daily pollen concentration has been estimated using regression models that describe the relationships between observed pollen concentrations and weather conditions. These models were able to forecast daily concentrations at the sites of observation, but lacked broader spatial applicability beyond those sites. To overcome this limitation, an integrated modeling scheme was developed that is designed to represent the underlying processes of pollen production and distribution. A maximum potential for airborne pollen is first determined using the Weibull probability density function. Then, daily pollen concentration is estimated using multiple regression models. Daily risk grade levels are determined based on the risk criteria used in Korea. The mean percentages of agreement between the observed and estimated levels were 81.4-88.2 % and 92.5-98.5 % for oak and Japanese hop pollens, respectively. The new models estimated daily pollen risk more accurately than the original statistical models because of the newly integrated biological response curves. Although they overestimated seasonal mean concentration, they did not simulate all of the peak concentrations. This issue would be resolved by adding more variables that affect the prevalence and internal maturity of pollens.

  18. PROBABILITY SURVEYS , CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over ...

  19. Probability Surveys, Conditional Probability, and Ecological Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over ...

  20. Tomographic measurement of joint photon statistics of the twin-beam quantum state

    PubMed

    Vasilyev; Choi; Kumar; D'Ariano

    2000-03-13

    We report the first measurement of the joint photon-number probability distribution for a two-mode quantum state created by a nondegenerate optical parametric amplifier. The measured distributions exhibit up to 1.9 dB of quantum correlation between the signal and idler photon numbers, whereas the marginal distributions are thermal as expected for parametric fluorescence.

  1. Classic maximum entropy recovery of the average joint distribution of apparent FRET efficiency and fluorescence photons for single-molecule burst measurements.

    PubMed

    DeVore, Matthew S; Gull, Stephen F; Johnson, Carey K

    2012-04-05

    We describe a method for analysis of single-molecule Förster resonance energy transfer (FRET) burst measurements using classic maximum entropy. Classic maximum entropy determines the Bayesian inference for the joint probability describing the total fluorescence photons and the apparent FRET efficiency. The method was tested with simulated data and then with DNA labeled with fluorescent dyes. The most probable joint distribution can be marginalized to obtain both the overall distribution of fluorescence photons and the apparent FRET efficiency distribution. This method proves to be ideal for determining the distance distribution of FRET-labeled biomolecules, and it successfully predicts the shape of the recovered distributions.

  2. Classic Maximum Entropy Recovery of the Average Joint Distribution of Apparent FRET Efficiency and Fluorescence Photons for Single-molecule Burst Measurements

    PubMed Central

    DeVore, Matthew S.; Gull, Stephen F.; Johnson, Carey K.

    2012-01-01

    We describe a method for analysis of single-molecule Förster resonance energy transfer (FRET) burst measurements using classic maximum entropy. Classic maximum entropy determines the Bayesian inference for the joint probability describing the total fluorescence photons and the apparent FRET efficiency. The method was tested with simulated data and then with DNA labeled with fluorescent dyes. The most probable joint distribution can be marginalized to obtain both the overall distribution of fluorescence photons and the apparent FRET efficiency distribution. This method proves to be ideal for determining the distance distribution of FRET-labeled biomolecules, and it successfully predicts the shape of the recovered distributions. PMID:22338694

  3. Prevalence of different temporomandibular joint sounds, with emphasis on disc-displacement, in patients with temporomandibular disorders and controls.

    PubMed

    Elfving, Lars; Helkimo, Martti; Magnusson, Tomas

    2002-01-01

    Temporomandibular joint (TMJ) sounds are very common among patients with temporomandibular disorders (TMD), but also in non-patient populations. A variety of different causes to TMJ-sounds have been suggested e.g. arthrotic changes in the TMJs, anatomical variations, muscular incoordination and disc displacement. In the present investigation, the prevalence and type of different joint sounds were registered in 125 consecutive patients with suspected TMD and in 125 matched controls. Some kind of joint sound was recorded in 56% of the TMD patients and in 36% of the controls. The awareness of joint sounds was higher among TMD patients as compared to controls (88% and 60% respectively). The most common sound recorded in both groups was reciprocal clickings indicative of a disc displacement, while not one single case fulfilling the criteria for clicking due to a muscular incoordination was found. In the TMD group women with disc displacement reported sleeping on the stomach significantly more often than women without disc displacement did. An increased general joint laxity was found in 39% of the TMD patients with disc displacement, while this was found in only 9% of the patients with disc displacement in the control group. To conclude, disc displacement is probably the most common cause to TMJ sounds, while the existence of TMJ sounds due to a muscular incoordination can be questioned. Furthermore, sleeping on the stomach might be associated with disc displacement, while general joint laxity is probably not a causative factor, but a seeking care factor in patients with disc displacement.

  4. Quantum probabilities as Dempster-Shafer probabilities in the lattice of subspaces

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Vourdas, A.

    2014-08-15

    The orthocomplemented modular lattice of subspaces L[H(d)], of a quantum system with d-dimensional Hilbert space H(d), is considered. A generalized additivity relation which holds for Kolmogorov probabilities is violated by quantum probabilities in the full lattice L[H(d)] (it is only valid within the Boolean subalgebras of L[H(d)]). This suggests the use of more general (than Kolmogorov) probability theories, and here the Dempster-Shafer probability theory is adopted. An operator D(H{sub 1},H{sub 2}), which quantifies deviations from Kolmogorov probability theory is introduced, and it is shown to be intimately related to the commutator of the projectors P(H{sub 1}),P(H{sub 2}), to the subspacesmore » H{sub 1}, H{sub 2}. As an application, it is shown that the proof of the inequalities of Clauser, Horne, Shimony, and Holt for a system of two spin 1/2 particles is valid for Kolmogorov probabilities, but it is not valid for Dempster-Shafer probabilities. The violation of these inequalities in experiments supports the interpretation of quantum probabilities as Dempster-Shafer probabilities.« less

  5. The Sensitivity of Joint Inversions of Seismic and Geodynamic Data to Mantle Viscosity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lu, C.; Grand, S. P.; Forte, A. M.; Simmons, N. A.

    2017-12-01

    Seismic tomography has mapped the existence of large scale mantle heterogeneities in recent years. However, the origin of these velocity anomalies in terms of chemical and thermal variations is still under debate due to the limitations of tomography. Joint inversion of seismic, geodynamic, and mineral physics observations has proven to be a powerful tool to decouple thermal and chemical effects in the deep mantle (Simmons et al. 2010). The approach initially attempts to find a model that can be explained assuming temperature controls lateral variations in mantle properties and then to consider more complicated lateral variations that account for the presence of chemical heterogeneity to further fit data. The geodynamic observations include Earth's free air gravity field, tectonic plate motions, dynamic topography and the excess ellipticity of the core. The sensitivity of the geodynamic observables to density anomalies, however, depends on an assumed radial mantle viscosity profile. Here we perform joint inversions of seismic and geodynamic data using a number of published viscosity profiles. The goal is to test the sensitivity of joint inversion results to mantle viscosity. For each viscosity model, geodynamic sensitivity kernels are calculated and used to jointly invert the geodynamic observations as well as a new shear wave data set for a model of density and seismic velocity. Also, compared with previous joint inversion studies, two major improvements have been made in our inversion. First, we use a nonlinear inversion to account for anelastic effects. Applying the very fast simulate annealing (VFSA) method, we let the elastic scaling factor and anelastic parameters from mineral physics measurements vary within their possible ranges and find the best fitting model assuming thermal variations are the cause of the heterogeneity. We also include an a priori subducting slab model into the starting model. Thus the geodynamic and seismic signatures of short wavelength

  6. [Influence of Restricting the Ankle Joint Complex Motions on Gait Stability of Human Body].

    PubMed

    Li, Yang; Zhang, Junxia; Su, Hailong; Wang, Xinting; Zhang, Yan

    2016-10-01

    The purpose of this study is to determine how restricting inversion-eversion and pronation-supination motions of the ankle joint complex influences the stability of human gait.The experiment was carried out on a slippery level ground walkway.Spatiotemporal gait parameter,kinematics and kinetics data as well as utilized coefficient of friction(UCOF)were compared between two conditions,i.e.with restriction of the ankle joint complex inversion-eversion and pronation-supination motions(FIXED)and without restriction(FREE).The results showed that FIXED could lead to a significant increase in velocity and stride length and an obvious decrease in double support time.Furthermore,FIXED might affect the motion angle range of knee joint and ankle joint in the sagittal plane.In FIXED condition,UCOF was significantly increased,which could lead to an increase of slip probability and a decrease of gait stability.Hence,in the design of a walker,bipedal robot or prosthetic,the structure design which is used to achieve the ankle joint complex inversion-eversion and pronation-supination motions should be implemented.

  7. A summary of transition probabilities for atomic absorption lines formed in low-density clouds

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Morton, D. C.; Smith, W. H.

    1973-01-01

    A table of wavelengths, statistical weights, and excitation energies is given for 944 atomic spectral lines in 221 multiplets whose lower energy levels lie below 0.275 eV. Oscillator strengths were adopted for 635 lines in 155 multiplets from the available experimental and theoretical determinations. Radiation damping constants also were derived for most of these lines. This table contains the lines most likely to be observed in absorption in interstellar clouds, circumstellar shells, and the clouds in the direction of quasars where neither the particle density nor the radiation density is high enough to populate the higher levels. All ions of all elements from hydrogen to zinc are included which have resonance lines longward of 912 A, although a number of weaker lines of neutrals and first ions have been omitted.

  8. The Estimation of Tree Posterior Probabilities Using Conditional Clade Probability Distributions

    PubMed Central

    Larget, Bret

    2013-01-01

    In this article I introduce the idea of conditional independence of separated subtrees as a principle by which to estimate the posterior probability of trees using conditional clade probability distributions rather than simple sample relative frequencies. I describe an algorithm for these calculations and software which implements these ideas. I show that these alternative calculations are very similar to simple sample relative frequencies for high probability trees but are substantially more accurate for relatively low probability trees. The method allows the posterior probability of unsampled trees to be calculated when these trees contain only clades that are in other sampled trees. Furthermore, the method can be used to estimate the total probability of the set of sampled trees which provides a measure of the thoroughness of a posterior sample. [Bayesian phylogenetics; conditional clade distributions; improved accuracy; posterior probabilities of trees.] PMID:23479066

  9. Joint estimation over multiple individuals improves behavioural state inference from animal movement data.

    PubMed

    Jonsen, Ian

    2016-02-08

    State-space models provide a powerful way to scale up inference of movement behaviours from individuals to populations when the inference is made across multiple individuals. Here, I show how a joint estimation approach that assumes individuals share identical movement parameters can lead to improved inference of behavioural states associated with different movement processes. I use simulated movement paths with known behavioural states to compare estimation error between nonhierarchical and joint estimation formulations of an otherwise identical state-space model. Behavioural state estimation error was strongly affected by the degree of similarity between movement patterns characterising the behavioural states, with less error when movements were strongly dissimilar between states. The joint estimation model improved behavioural state estimation relative to the nonhierarchical model for simulated data with heavy-tailed Argos location errors. When applied to Argos telemetry datasets from 10 Weddell seals, the nonhierarchical model estimated highly uncertain behavioural state switching probabilities for most individuals whereas the joint estimation model yielded substantially less uncertainty. The joint estimation model better resolved the behavioural state sequences across all seals. Hierarchical or joint estimation models should be the preferred choice for estimating behavioural states from animal movement data, especially when location data are error-prone.

  10. Quantum mechanical probability current as electromagnetic 4-current from topological EM fields

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van der Mark, Martin B.

    2015-09-01

    Starting from a complex 4-potential A = αdβ we show that the 4-current density in electromagnetism and the probability current density in relativistic quantum mechanics are of identical form. With the Dirac-Clifford algebra Cl1,3 as mathematical basis, the given 4-potential allows topological solutions of the fields, quite similar to Bateman's construction, but with a double field solution that was overlooked previously. A more general nullvector condition is found and wave-functions of charged and neutral particles appear as topological configurations of the electromagnetic fields.

  11. Estimating detection and density of the Andean cat in the high Andes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Reppucci, J.; Gardner, B.; Lucherini, M.

    2011-01-01

    The Andean cat (Leopardus jacobita) is one of the most endangered, yet least known, felids. Although the Andean cat is considered at risk of extinction, rigorous quantitative population studies are lacking. Because physical observations of the Andean cat are difficult to make in the wild, we used a camera-trapping array to photo-capture individuals. The survey was conducted in northwestern Argentina at an elevation of approximately 4,200 m during October-December 2006 and April-June 2007. In each year we deployed 22 pairs of camera traps, which were strategically placed. To estimate detection probability and density we applied models for spatial capture-recapture using a Bayesian framework. Estimated densities were 0.07 and 0.12 individual/km 2 for 2006 and 2007, respectively. Mean baseline detection probability was estimated at 0.07. By comparison, densities of the Pampas cat (Leopardus colocolo), another poorly known felid that shares its habitat with the Andean cat, were estimated at 0.74-0.79 individual/km2 in the same study area for 2006 and 2007, and its detection probability was estimated at 0.02. Despite having greater detectability, the Andean cat is rarer in the study region than the Pampas cat. Properly accounting for the detection probability is important in making reliable estimates of density, a key parameter in conservation and management decisions for any species. ?? 2011 American Society of Mammalogists.

  12. Estimating detection and density of the Andean cat in the high Andes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Reppucci, Juan; Gardner, Beth; Lucherini, Mauro

    2011-01-01

    The Andean cat (Leopardus jacobita) is one of the most endangered, yet least known, felids. Although the Andean cat is considered at risk of extinction, rigorous quantitative population studies are lacking. Because physical observations of the Andean cat are difficult to make in the wild, we used a camera-trapping array to photo-capture individuals. The survey was conducted in northwestern Argentina at an elevation of approximately 4,200 m during October–December 2006 and April–June 2007. In each year we deployed 22 pairs of camera traps, which were strategically placed. To estimate detection probability and density we applied models for spatial capture–recapture using a Bayesian framework. Estimated densities were 0.07 and 0.12 individual/km2 for 2006 and 2007, respectively. Mean baseline detection probability was estimated at 0.07. By comparison, densities of the Pampas cat (Leopardus colocolo), another poorly known felid that shares its habitat with the Andean cat, were estimated at 0.74–0.79 individual/km2 in the same study area for 2006 and 2007, and its detection probability was estimated at 0.02. Despite having greater detectability, the Andean cat is rarer in the study region than the Pampas cat. Properly accounting for the detection probability is important in making reliable estimates of density, a key parameter in conservation and management decisions for any species.

  13. Estimating the Probability of Elevated Nitrate Concentrations in Ground Water in Washington State

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Frans, Lonna M.

    2008-01-01

    Logistic regression was used to relate anthropogenic (manmade) and natural variables to the occurrence of elevated nitrate concentrations in ground water in Washington State. Variables that were analyzed included well depth, ground-water recharge rate, precipitation, population density, fertilizer application amounts, soil characteristics, hydrogeomorphic regions, and land-use types. Two models were developed: one with and one without the hydrogeomorphic regions variable. The variables in both models that best explained the occurrence of elevated nitrate concentrations (defined as concentrations of nitrite plus nitrate as nitrogen greater than 2 milligrams per liter) were the percentage of agricultural land use in a 4-kilometer radius of a well, population density, precipitation, soil drainage class, and well depth. Based on the relations between these variables and measured nitrate concentrations, logistic regression models were developed to estimate the probability of nitrate concentrations in ground water exceeding 2 milligrams per liter. Maps of Washington State were produced that illustrate these estimated probabilities for wells drilled to 145 feet below land surface (median well depth) and the estimated depth to which wells would need to be drilled to have a 90-percent probability of drawing water with a nitrate concentration less than 2 milligrams per liter. Maps showing the estimated probability of elevated nitrate concentrations indicated that the agricultural regions are most at risk followed by urban areas. The estimated depths to which wells would need to be drilled to have a 90-percent probability of obtaining water with nitrate concentrations less than 2 milligrams per liter exceeded 1,000 feet in the agricultural regions; whereas, wells in urban areas generally would need to be drilled to depths in excess of 400 feet.

  14. Numerical study of the influence of surface reaction probabilities on reactive species in an rf atmospheric pressure plasma containing humidity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schröter, Sandra; Gibson, Andrew R.; Kushner, Mark J.; Gans, Timo; O'Connell, Deborah

    2018-01-01

    The quantification and control of reactive species (RS) in atmospheric pressure plasmas (APPs) is of great interest for their technological applications, in particular in biomedicine. Of key importance in simulating the densities of these species are fundamental data on their production and destruction. In particular, data concerning particle-surface reaction probabilities in APPs are scarce, with most of these probabilities measured in low-pressure systems. In this work, the role of surface reaction probabilities, γ, of reactive neutral species (H, O and OH) on neutral particle densities in a He-H2O radio-frequency micro APP jet (COST-μ APPJ) are investigated using a global model. It is found that the choice of γ, particularly for low-mass species having large diffusivities, such as H, can change computed species densities significantly. The importance of γ even at elevated pressures offers potential for tailoring the RS composition of atmospheric pressure microplasmas by choosing different wall materials or plasma geometries.

  15. Density of American black bears in New Mexico

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gould, Matthew J.; Cain, James W.; Roemer, Gary W.; Gould, William R.; Liley, Stewart

    2018-01-01

    Considering advances in noninvasive genetic sampling and spatially explicit capture–recapture (SECR) models, the New Mexico Department of Game and Fish sought to update their density estimates for American black bear (Ursus americanus) populations in New Mexico, USA, to aide in setting sustainable harvest limits. We estimated black bear density in the Sangre de Cristo, Sandia, and Sacramento Mountains, New Mexico, 2012–2014. We collected hair samples from black bears using hair traps and bear rubs and used a sex marker and a suite of microsatellite loci to individually genotype hair samples. We then estimated density in a SECR framework using sex, elevation, land cover type, and time to model heterogeneity in detection probability and the spatial scale over which detection probability declines. We sampled the populations using 554 hair traps and 117 bear rubs and collected 4,083 hair samples. We identified 725 (367 male, 358 female) individuals. Our density estimates varied from 16.5 bears/100 km2 (95% CI = 11.6–23.5) in the southern Sacramento Mountains to 25.7 bears/100 km2 (95% CI = 13.2–50.1) in the Sandia Mountains. Overall, detection probability at the activity center (g0) was low across all study areas and ranged from 0.00001 to 0.02. The low values of g0 were primarily a result of half of all hair samples for which genotypes were attempted failing to produce a complete genotype. We speculate that the low success we had genotyping hair samples was due to exceedingly high levels of ultraviolet (UV) radiation that degraded the DNA in the hair. Despite sampling difficulties, we were able to produce density estimates with levels of precision comparable to those estimated for black bears elsewhere in the United States.

  16. Probability 1/e

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Koo, Reginald; Jones, Martin L.

    2011-01-01

    Quite a number of interesting problems in probability feature an event with probability equal to 1/e. This article discusses three such problems and attempts to explain why this probability occurs with such frequency.

  17. Density Variations in the NW Star Stream of M31

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carlberg, R. G.; Richer, Harvey B.; McConnachie, Alan W.; Irwin, Mike; Ibata, Rodrigo A.; Dotter, Aaron L.; Chapman, Scott; Fardal, Mark; Ferguson, A. M. N.; Lewis, G. F.; Navarro, Julio F.; Puzia, Thomas H.; Valls-Gabaud, David

    2011-04-01

    The Pan Andromeda Archeological Survey (PAndAS) CFHT Megaprime survey of the M31-M33 system has found a star stream which extends about 120 kpc NW from the center of M31. The great length of the stream, and the likelihood that it does not significantly intersect the disk of M31, means that it is unusually well suited for a measurement of stream gaps and clumps along its length as a test for the predicted thousands of dark matter sub-halos. The main result of this paper is that the density of the stream varies between zero and about three times the mean along its length on scales of 2-20 kpc. The probability that the variations are random fluctuations in the star density is less than 10-5. As a control sample, we search for density variations at precisely the same location in stars with metallicity higher than the stream [Fe/H] = [0, -0.5] and find no variations above the expected shot noise. The lumpiness of the stream is not compatible with a low mass star stream in a smooth galactic potential, nor is it readily compatible with the disturbance caused by the visible M31 satellite galaxies. The stream's density variations appear to be consistent with the effects of a large population of steep mass function dark matter sub-halos, such as found in LCDM simulations, acting on an approximately 10 Gyr old star stream. The effects of a single set of halo substructure realizations are shown for illustration, reserving a statistical comparison for another study. Based on observations obtained with MegaPrime / MegaCam, a joint project of CFHT and CEA/DAPNIA, at the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope (CFHT) which is operated by the National Research Council (NRC) of Canada, the Institute National des Sciences de l'Univers of the Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique of France, and the University of Hawaii.

  18. Joint modelling of longitudinal CEA tumour marker progression and survival data on breast cancer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Borges, Ana; Sousa, Inês; Castro, Luis

    2017-06-01

    This work proposes the use of Biostatistics methods to study breast cancer in patients of Braga's Hospital Senology Unit, located in Portugal. The primary motivation is to contribute to the understanding of the progression of breast cancer, within the Portuguese population, using a more complex statistical model assumptions than the traditional analysis that take into account a possible existence of a serial correlation structure within a same subject observations. We aim to infer which risk factors aect the survival of Braga's Hospital patients, diagnosed with breast tumour. Whilst analysing risk factors that aect a tumour markers used on the surveillance of disease progression the Carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA). As survival and longitudinal processes may be associated, it is important to model these two processes together. Hence, a joint modelling of these two processes to infer on the association of these was conducted. A data set of 540 patients, along with 50 variables, was collected from medical records of the Hospital. A joint model approach was used to analyse these data. Two dierent joint models were applied to the same data set, with dierent parameterizations which give dierent interpretations to model parameters. These were used by convenience as the ones implemented in R software. Results from the two models were compared. Results from joint models, showed that the longitudinal CEA values were signicantly associated with the survival probability of these patients. A comparison between parameter estimates obtained in this analysis and previous independent survival[4] and longitudinal analysis[5][6], lead us to conclude that independent analysis brings up bias parameter estimates. Hence, an assumption of association between the two processes in a joint model of breast cancer data is necessary. Results indicate that the longitudinal progression of CEA is signicantly associated with the probability of survival of these patients. Hence, an assumption of

  19. Recent origin of low trabecular bone density in modern humans

    PubMed Central

    Chirchir, Habiba; Kivell, Tracy L.; Ruff, Christopher B.; Hublin, Jean-Jacques; Carlson, Kristian J.; Zipfel, Bernhard; Richmond, Brian G.

    2015-01-01

    Humans are unique, compared with our closest living relatives (chimpanzees) and early fossil hominins, in having an enlarged body size and lower limb joint surfaces in combination with a relatively gracile skeleton (i.e., lower bone mass for our body size). Some analyses have observed that in at least a few anatomical regions modern humans today appear to have relatively low trabecular density, but little is known about how that density varies throughout the human skeleton and across species or how and when the present trabecular patterns emerged over the course of human evolution. Here, we test the hypotheses that (i) recent modern humans have low trabecular density throughout the upper and lower limbs compared with other primate taxa and (ii) the reduction in trabecular density first occurred in early Homo erectus, consistent with the shift toward a modern human locomotor anatomy, or more recently in concert with diaphyseal gracilization in Holocene humans. We used peripheral quantitative CT and microtomography to measure trabecular bone of limb epiphyses (long bone articular ends) in modern humans and chimpanzees and in fossil hominins attributed to Australopithecus africanus, Paranthropus robustus/early Homo from Swartkrans, Homo neanderthalensis, and early Homo sapiens. Results show that only recent modern humans have low trabecular density throughout the limb joints. Extinct hominins, including pre-Holocene Homo sapiens, retain the high levels seen in nonhuman primates. Thus, the low trabecular density of the recent modern human skeleton evolved late in our evolutionary history, potentially resulting from increased sedentism and reliance on technological and cultural innovations. PMID:25535354

  20. Recent origin of low trabecular bone density in modern humans.

    PubMed

    Chirchir, Habiba; Kivell, Tracy L; Ruff, Christopher B; Hublin, Jean-Jacques; Carlson, Kristian J; Zipfel, Bernhard; Richmond, Brian G

    2015-01-13

    Humans are unique, compared with our closest living relatives (chimpanzees) and early fossil hominins, in having an enlarged body size and lower limb joint surfaces in combination with a relatively gracile skeleton (i.e., lower bone mass for our body size). Some analyses have observed that in at least a few anatomical regions modern humans today appear to have relatively low trabecular density, but little is known about how that density varies throughout the human skeleton and across species or how and when the present trabecular patterns emerged over the course of human evolution. Here, we test the hypotheses that (i) recent modern humans have low trabecular density throughout the upper and lower limbs compared with other primate taxa and (ii) the reduction in trabecular density first occurred in early Homo erectus, consistent with the shift toward a modern human locomotor anatomy, or more recently in concert with diaphyseal gracilization in Holocene humans. We used peripheral quantitative CT and microtomography to measure trabecular bone of limb epiphyses (long bone articular ends) in modern humans and chimpanzees and in fossil hominins attributed to Australopithecus africanus, Paranthropus robustus/early Homo from Swartkrans, Homo neanderthalensis, and early Homo sapiens. Results show that only recent modern humans have low trabecular density throughout the limb joints. Extinct hominins, including pre-Holocene Homo sapiens, retain the high levels seen in nonhuman primates. Thus, the low trabecular density of the recent modern human skeleton evolved late in our evolutionary history, potentially resulting from increased sedentism and reliance on technological and cultural innovations.

  1. Bilateral coxofemoral degenerative joint disease in a juvenile male yellow-eyed penguin (Megadyptes antipodes).

    PubMed

    Buckle, Kelly N; Alley, Maurice R

    2011-08-01

    A juvenile, male, yellow-eyed penguin (Megadyptes antipodes) with abnormal stance and decreased mobility was captured, held in captivity for approximately 6 weeks, and euthanized due to continued clinical signs. Radiographically, there was bilateral degenerative joint disease with coxofemoral periarticular osteophyte formation. Grossly, the bird had bilaterally distended, thickened coxofemoral joints with increased laxity, and small, roughened and angular femoral heads. Histologically, the left femoral articular cartilage and subchondral bone were absent, and the remaining femoral head consisted of trabecular bone overlain by fibrin and granulation tissue. There was no gross or histological evidence of infection. The historic, gross, radiographic, and histopathologic findings were most consistent with bilateral aseptic femoral head degeneration resulting in degenerative joint disease. Although the chronicity of the lesions masked the initiating cause, the probable underlying causes of aseptic bilateral femoral head degeneration in a young animal are osteonecrosis and osteochondrosis of the femoral head. To our knowledge, this is the first reported case of bilateral coxofemoral degenerative joint disease in a penguin.

  2. Probability Density Functions for the CALIPSO Lidar Version 4 Cloud-Aerosol Discrimination (CAD) Algorithm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Z.; Kar, J.; Zeng, S.; Tackett, J. L.; Vaughan, M.; Trepte, C. R.; Omar, A. H.; Hu, Y.; Winker, D. M.

    2017-12-01

    In the CALIPSO retrieval algorithm, detection layers in the lidar measurements is followed by their classification as a "cloud" or "aerosol" using 5-dimensional probability density functions (PDFs). The five dimensions are the mean attenuated backscatter at 532 nm, the layer integrated total attenuated color ratio, the mid-layer altitude, integrated volume depolarization ratio and latitude. The new version 4 (V4) level 2 (L2) data products, released in November 2016, are the first major revision to the L2 product suite since May 2010. Significant calibration changes in the V4 level 1 data necessitated substantial revisions to the V4 L2 CAD algorithm. Accordingly, a new set of PDFs was generated to derive the V4 L2 data products. The V4 CAD algorithm is now applied to layers detected in the stratosphere, where volcanic layers and occasional cloud and smoke layers are observed. Previously, these layers were designated as `stratospheric', and not further classified. The V4 CAD algorithm is also applied to all layers detected at single shot (333 m) resolution. In prior data releases, single shot detections were uniformly classified as clouds. The CAD PDFs used in the earlier releases were generated using a full year (2008) of CALIPSO measurements. Because the CAD algorithm was not applied to stratospheric features, the properties of these layers were not incorporated into the PDFs. When building the V4 PDFs, the 2008 data were augmented with additional data from June 2011, and all stratospheric features were included. The Nabro and Puyehue-Cordon volcanos erupted in June 2011, and volcanic aerosol layers were observed in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere in both the northern and southern hemispheres. The June 2011 data thus provides the stratospheric aerosol properties needed for comprehensive PDF generation. In contrast to earlier versions of the PDFs, which were generated based solely on observed distributions, construction of the V4 PDFs considered the

  3. A method to deconvolve stellar rotational velocities II. The probability distribution function via Tikhonov regularization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Christen, Alejandra; Escarate, Pedro; Curé, Michel; Rial, Diego F.; Cassetti, Julia

    2016-10-01

    Aims: Knowing the distribution of stellar rotational velocities is essential for understanding stellar evolution. Because we measure the projected rotational speed v sin I, we need to solve an ill-posed problem given by a Fredholm integral of the first kind to recover the "true" rotational velocity distribution. Methods: After discretization of the Fredholm integral we apply the Tikhonov regularization method to obtain directly the probability distribution function for stellar rotational velocities. We propose a simple and straightforward procedure to determine the Tikhonov parameter. We applied Monte Carlo simulations to prove that the Tikhonov method is a consistent estimator and asymptotically unbiased. Results: This method is applied to a sample of cluster stars. We obtain confidence intervals using a bootstrap method. Our results are in close agreement with those obtained using the Lucy method for recovering the probability density distribution of rotational velocities. Furthermore, Lucy estimation lies inside our confidence interval. Conclusions: Tikhonov regularization is a highly robust method that deconvolves the rotational velocity probability density function from a sample of v sin I data directly without the need for any convergence criteria.

  4. Radiation hydrodynamic effects in two beryllium plates with an idealized aluminum joint

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Belkov, S.A.; Mkhitarian, L.S.; Vinokurov, O.A.

    A beryllium capsule formed from two hemispherical shells with a thin bond is one possible ignition target for the National Ignition Facility [J. A. Paisner {ital et al.}, Laser Focus World {bold 30}, 75 (1994)] Nonuniformities in density, opacity, and interface position at the joint between these hemishells will initiate two-dimensional (2-D) perturbations of the shock wave and material behind the shock as the shock passes through the shell perpendicular to the joint width. Rarefaction of material flow behind the shock front can cause the interface between the shell and joint material to oscillate in position. The amplitude of thesemore » oscillations may be comparable to the joint width. The evolution of these perturbations is studied by numerically simulating shock passage through flat beryllium plates containing aluminum joints. Using the MIMOSA-ND code [D. Sofronov {ital et al.}, Vopr. At. Nauki Tekh., Ser: Mat. modelirovanie fizicheskih processov {bold 2}, 3 (1990)] two different cases are calculated{emdash}a wide (10 {mu}m) and a narrow (1 {mu}m) joint of aluminum between two 150 {mu}m long semiinfinite beryllium plates. Both cases showed good agreement with an analytic representation of the oscillation behavior. For the narrow joint, a special technique allows the calculation of mixing between the joint and surrounding material caused by the Kelvin{endash}Helmholtz instability. {copyright} {ital 1999 American Institute of Physics.}« less

  5. High density polyethylene/graphite nano-composites for total hip joint replacements: processing and in vitro characterization.

    PubMed

    Fouad, H; Elleithy, Rabeh

    2011-10-01

    The main objective of the present study is to investigate how the thermal, rheological, mechanical and cytotoxicity behavior of High Density Polyethylene (HDPE) can be changed by the addition of graphite nano particles (GNPs) at different contents. The HDPE/GNPs composites were prepared using melt blending in a co-rotating intermeshing twin screw extruder. The in vitro tests results showed that the original material (HDPE) and all HDPE/GNPs composites do not exhibit any cytotoxicity to the WISH cell line. The microscopic examination of the nano-composite tensile-fractured surface found a good distribution of GNPs in the HDPE matrix. The Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC) results indicated that the crystallization percentage increased by adding GNPs to HDPE up to 4%. The XRD patterns of the HDPE/GNPs composites showed an increase in peak intensity compared to neat HDPE. This increase echoed the crystallinity results obtained from DSC. The rheological tests showed that the complex viscosity of the HDPE increased as the percentage of GNPs increased due to the restriction of the molecular mobility. The tensile test results showed that with increasing the GNPs content, Young's modulus and the yield strength of the HDPE/GNPs composite increased while the strain at fracture decreased. Finally, the preliminary results of the abrasion test indicated that the abrasion rate decreased by increasing the GNPs ratio up to 4% content. The prepared HDPE/GNPs composites appear to have fairly good comprehensive properties that make them a good candidate as a bearing material for the total joint replacement. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Lessons from a non-domestic canid: joint disease in captive raccoon dogs (Nyctereutes procyonoides).

    PubMed

    Lawler, Dennis F; Evans, Richard H; Nieminen, Petteri; Mustonen, Anne-Mari; Smith, Gail K

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to describe pathological changes of the shoulder, elbow, hip and stifle joints of 16 museum skeletons of the raccoon dog (Nyctereutes procyonoides). The subjects had been held in long-term captivity and were probably used for fur farming or research, thus allowing sufficient longevity for joint disease to become recognisable. The prevalence of disorders that include osteochondrosis, osteoarthritis and changes compatible with hip dysplasia, was surprisingly high. Other changes that reflect near-normal or mild pathological conditions, including prominent articular margins and mild bony periarticular rim, were also prevalent. Our data form a basis for comparing joint pathology of captive raccoon dogs with other mammals and also suggest that contributing roles of captivity and genetic predisposition should be explored further in non-domestic canids.

  7. Probability machines: consistent probability estimation using nonparametric learning machines.

    PubMed

    Malley, J D; Kruppa, J; Dasgupta, A; Malley, K G; Ziegler, A

    2012-01-01

    Most machine learning approaches only provide a classification for binary responses. However, probabilities are required for risk estimation using individual patient characteristics. It has been shown recently that every statistical learning machine known to be consistent for a nonparametric regression problem is a probability machine that is provably consistent for this estimation problem. The aim of this paper is to show how random forests and nearest neighbors can be used for consistent estimation of individual probabilities. Two random forest algorithms and two nearest neighbor algorithms are described in detail for estimation of individual probabilities. We discuss the consistency of random forests, nearest neighbors and other learning machines in detail. We conduct a simulation study to illustrate the validity of the methods. We exemplify the algorithms by analyzing two well-known data sets on the diagnosis of appendicitis and the diagnosis of diabetes in Pima Indians. Simulations demonstrate the validity of the method. With the real data application, we show the accuracy and practicality of this approach. We provide sample code from R packages in which the probability estimation is already available. This means that all calculations can be performed using existing software. Random forest algorithms as well as nearest neighbor approaches are valid machine learning methods for estimating individual probabilities for binary responses. Freely available implementations are available in R and may be used for applications.

  8. Effect of surface finish on the failure mechanisms of flip-chip solder joints under electromigration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, Y. L.; Lai, Y. S.; Tsai, C. M.; Kao, C. R.

    2006-12-01

    Two substrate surface finishes, Au/Ni and organic solderable preservative (OSP), were used to study the effect of the surface finish on the reliability of flip-chip solder joints under electromigration at 150°C ambient temperature. The solder used was eutectic PbSn, and the applied current density was 5×103 A/cm2 at the contact window of the chip. The under bump metallurgy (UBM) on the chip was sputtered Cu/Ni. It was found that the mean-time-to-failure (MTTF) of the OSP joints was six times better than that of the Au/Ni joints (3080 h vs. 500 h). Microstructure examinations uncovered that the combined effect of current crowding and the accompanying local Joule heating accelerated the local Ni UBM consumption near the point of electron entrance. Once Ni was depleted at a certain region, this region became nonconductive, and the flow of the electrons was diverted to the neighboring region. This neighboring region then became the place where electrons entered the joint, and the local Ni UBM consumption was accelerated. This process repeated itself, and the Ni-depleted region extended further on, creating an ever-larger nonconductive region. The solder joint eventually, failed when the nonconductive region became too large, making the effective current density very high. Accordingly, the key factor determining the MTTF was the Ni consumption rate. The joints with the OSP surface finish had a longer MTTF because Cu released from the substrate was able to reduce the Ni consumption rate.

  9. Microstructure of friction stir welded joints of 2017A aluminium alloy sheets.

    PubMed

    Mroczka, K; Dutkiewicz, J; Pietras, A

    2010-03-01

    The present study examines a friction stir welded 2017A aluminium alloy. Transmission electron microscope investigations of the weld nugget revealed the average grain size of 5 microm, moderate density of dislocations as well as the presence of nanometric precipitates located mostly in grains interiors. Scanning electron microscope observations of fractures showed the presence of ductile fracture in the region of the weld nugget with brittle precipitates in the lower part. The microhardness analysis performed on the cross-section of the joints showed fairly small changes; however, after the artificial ageing process an increase in hardness was observed. The change of the joint hardness subject to the ageing process indicates partial supersaturation in the material during friction stir welding and higher precipitation hardening of the joint.

  10. Excellent AUC for joint fluid cytology in the detection/exclusion of hip and knee prosthetic joint infection.

    PubMed

    Gallo, Jiri; Juranova, Jarmila; Svoboda, Michal; Zapletalova, Jana

    2017-09-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the characteristics of synovial fluid (SF) white cell count (SWCC) and neutrophil/lymphocyte percentage in the diagnosis of prosthetic joint infection (PJI) for particular threshold values. This was a prospective study of 391 patients in whom SF specimens were collected before total joint replacement revisions. SF was aspirated before joint capsule incision. The PJI diagnosis was based only on non-SF data. Receiver operating characteristic plots were constructed for the SWCC and differential counts of leukocytes in aspirated fluid. Logistic binomic regression was used to distinguish infected and non-infected cases in the combined data. PJI was diagnosed in 78 patients, and aseptic revision in 313 patients. The areas (AUC) under the curve for the SWCC, the neutrophil and lymphocyte percentages were 0.974, 0.962, and 0.951, respectively. The optimal cut-off for PJI was 3,450 cells/μL, 74.6% neutrophils, and 14.6% lymphocytes. Positive likelihood ratios for the SWCC, neutrophil and lymphocyte percentages were 19.0, 10.4, and 9.5, respectively. Negative likelihood ratios for the SWCC, neutrophil and lymphocyte percentages were 0.06, 0.076, and 0.092, respectively. Based on AUC, the present study identified cut-off values for the SWCC and differential leukocyte count for the diagnosis of PJI. The likelihood ratio for positive/negative SWCCs can significantly change the pre-test probability of PJI.

  11. The estimation of tree posterior probabilities using conditional clade probability distributions.

    PubMed

    Larget, Bret

    2013-07-01

    In this article I introduce the idea of conditional independence of separated subtrees as a principle by which to estimate the posterior probability of trees using conditional clade probability distributions rather than simple sample relative frequencies. I describe an algorithm for these calculations and software which implements these ideas. I show that these alternative calculations are very similar to simple sample relative frequencies for high probability trees but are substantially more accurate for relatively low probability trees. The method allows the posterior probability of unsampled trees to be calculated when these trees contain only clades that are in other sampled trees. Furthermore, the method can be used to estimate the total probability of the set of sampled trees which provides a measure of the thoroughness of a posterior sample.

  12. Degenerative joint disease: multiple joint involvement in young and mature dogs.

    PubMed

    Olsewski, J M; Lust, G; Rendano, V T; Summers, B A

    1983-07-01

    Radiologic, pathologic, and ancillary methods were used to determine the occurrence of degenerative joint disease involving multiple joints of immature and adult dogs. Animals were selected for the development of hip joint dysplasia and chronic degenerative joint disease. Of disease-prone dogs, 82% (45 of 55 dogs) had radiologic changes, indicative of hip dysplasia, by 1 year of age. At necropsy, more abnormal joints were identified than by radiographic examination. Among 92 dogs between 3 to 11 months of age that had joint abnormalities, 71% had hip joint involvement; 38%, shoulder joint involvement; 22%, stifle joint involvement; and 40% had multiple joint involvement. Polyarthritis was asymptomatic and unexpected. Radiographic examination of older dogs also revealed evidence of degenerative joint disease in many joints. Multiple joint involvement was substantiated at necropsy of young and mature dogs. A similar pattern of polyarticular osteoarthritis was revealed in a survey (computer search) of necropsy reports from medical case records of 100 adult and elderly dogs. Usually, the joint disease was an incidental observation, unrelated to the clinical disease or to the cause of death. The frequent occurrence of degenerative changes in several joints of dogs aged 6 months to 17 years indicated that osteoarthritis may be progressive in these joints and raises the possibility that systemic factors are involved in the disease process.

  13. Maximum likelihood density modification by pattern recognition of structural motifs

    DOEpatents

    Terwilliger, Thomas C.

    2004-04-13

    An electron density for a crystallographic structure having protein regions and solvent regions is improved by maximizing the log likelihood of a set of structures factors {F.sub.h } using a local log-likelihood function: (x)+p(.rho.(x).vertline.SOLV)p.sub.SOLV (x)+p(.rho.(x).vertline.H)p.sub.H (x)], where p.sub.PROT (x) is the probability that x is in the protein region, p(.rho.(x).vertline.PROT) is the conditional probability for .rho.(x) given that x is in the protein region, and p.sub.SOLV (x) and p(.rho.(x).vertline.SOLV) are the corresponding quantities for the solvent region, p.sub.H (x) refers to the probability that there is a structural motif at a known location, with a known orientation, in the vicinity of the point x; and p(.rho.(x).vertline.H) is the probability distribution for electron density at this point given that the structural motif actually is present. One appropriate structural motif is a helical structure within the crystallographic structure.

  14. Management of Candida guilliermondii joint infection in a dog.

    PubMed

    Bufalari, Antonello; Maggio, Chiara; Moretti, Giulia; Crovace, Alberto; Stefanetti, Valentina; Straubinger, Reinhard Konrad; Passamonti, Fabrizio

    2016-07-08

    Candida spp. are dimorphic fungi in the family Cryptococcaceae. Infections with Candida spp. are usually rare conditions in dogs, but immunocompromised patients have a higher risk for developing invasive candidal infections. A 5-year-old male Boxer, positive to Leishmania infantum, was referred to the Veterinary Teaching Hospital of the Department of Veterinary Medicine, University of Perugia, Italy for examination of a non-weight bearing left hind limb lameness of a duration of at least 3 months. During this period, treatment involved systemic anti-inflammatory medications and intra-articular corticosteroid administration. On presentation, clinical examination and radiographic findings were suggestive of cranial cruciate ligament deficiency. To support this diagnosis a stifle arthroscopy was performed: it confirmed a partial rupture of cranial cruciate ligament. Samples culture of synovial fluid and membrane was routinely collected as well, and revealed Candida guilliermondii joint infection. Treatment for the C. guilliermondii joint infection involved systemic anti-fungal therapy, joint lavage and intra-articular administration of antifungal drugs. Lameness improved markedly during this treatment, but lameness did not resolve completely, probably due to cranial cruciate ligament deficiency. Tibial tuberosity advancement (TTA) was chosen in order to treat stifle instability and was performed 4 weeks following cessation of treatment of the C. guilliermondii joint infection. Six month after TTA the dog showed a completely recovery with no lameness. To the authors' knowledge, this is the first case of Candida spp. joint infection reported in dogs. The cause of the progression of the joint C. guilliermondii infection remains unclear but it may be associated with leishmaniasis or intra-articular corticosteroid injections. Treatment with systemic and intra-articular anti-fungal therapies was successful. In the evaluation of hind limb lameness in a chronically

  15. Robust estimation of mammographic breast density: a patient-based approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heese, Harald S.; Erhard, Klaus; Gooßen, Andre; Bulow, Thomas

    2012-02-01

    Breast density has become an established risk indicator for developing breast cancer. Current clinical practice reflects this by grading mammograms patient-wise as entirely fat, scattered fibroglandular, heterogeneously dense, or extremely dense based on visual perception. Existing (semi-) automated methods work on a per-image basis and mimic clinical practice by calculating an area fraction of fibroglandular tissue (mammographic percent density). We suggest a method that follows clinical practice more strictly by segmenting the fibroglandular tissue portion directly from the joint data of all four available mammographic views (cranio-caudal and medio-lateral oblique, left and right), and by subsequently calculating a consistently patient-based mammographic percent density estimate. In particular, each mammographic view is first processed separately to determine a region of interest (ROI) for segmentation into fibroglandular and adipose tissue. ROI determination includes breast outline detection via edge-based methods, peripheral tissue suppression via geometric breast height modeling, and - for medio-lateral oblique views only - pectoral muscle outline detection based on optimizing a three-parameter analytic curve with respect to local appearance. Intensity harmonization based on separately acquired calibration data is performed with respect to compression height and tube voltage to facilitate joint segmentation of available mammographic views. A Gaussian mixture model (GMM) on the joint histogram data with a posteriori calibration guided plausibility correction is finally employed for tissue separation. The proposed method was tested on patient data from 82 subjects. Results show excellent correlation (r = 0.86) to radiologist's grading with deviations ranging between -28%, (q = 0.025) and +16%, (q = 0.975).

  16. Cetacean population density estimation from single fixed sensors using passive acoustics.

    PubMed

    Küsel, Elizabeth T; Mellinger, David K; Thomas, Len; Marques, Tiago A; Moretti, David; Ward, Jessica

    2011-06-01

    Passive acoustic methods are increasingly being used to estimate animal population density. Most density estimation methods are based on estimates of the probability of detecting calls as functions of distance. Typically these are obtained using receivers capable of localizing calls or from studies of tagged animals. However, both approaches are expensive to implement. The approach described here uses a MonteCarlo model to estimate the probability of detecting calls from single sensors. The passive sonar equation is used to predict signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs) of received clicks, which are then combined with a detector characterization that predicts probability of detection as a function of SNR. Input distributions for source level, beam pattern, and whale depth are obtained from the literature. Acoustic propagation modeling is used to estimate transmission loss. Other inputs for density estimation are call rate, obtained from the literature, and false positive rate, obtained from manual analysis of a data sample. The method is applied to estimate density of Blainville's beaked whales over a 6-day period around a single hydrophone located in the Tongue of the Ocean, Bahamas. Results are consistent with those from previous analyses, which use additional tag data. © 2011 Acoustical Society of America

  17. Bivariate Rainfall and Runoff Analysis Using Shannon Entropy Theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rahimi, A.; Zhang, L.

    2012-12-01

    Rainfall-Runoff analysis is the key component for many hydrological and hydraulic designs in which the dependence of rainfall and runoff needs to be studied. It is known that the convenient bivariate distribution are often unable to model the rainfall-runoff variables due to that they either have constraints on the range of the dependence or fixed form for the marginal distributions. Thus, this paper presents an approach to derive the entropy-based joint rainfall-runoff distribution using Shannon entropy theory. The distribution derived can model the full range of dependence and allow different specified marginals. The modeling and estimation can be proceeded as: (i) univariate analysis of marginal distributions which includes two steps, (a) using the nonparametric statistics approach to detect modes and underlying probability density, and (b) fitting the appropriate parametric probability density functions; (ii) define the constraints based on the univariate analysis and the dependence structure; (iii) derive and validate the entropy-based joint distribution. As to validate the method, the rainfall-runoff data are collected from the small agricultural experimental watersheds located in semi-arid region near Riesel (Waco), Texas, maintained by the USDA. The results of unviariate analysis show that the rainfall variables follow the gamma distribution, whereas the runoff variables have mixed structure and follow the mixed-gamma distribution. With this information, the entropy-based joint distribution is derived using the first moments, the first moments of logarithm transformed rainfall and runoff, and the covariance between rainfall and runoff. The results of entropy-based joint distribution indicate: (1) the joint distribution derived successfully preserves the dependence between rainfall and runoff, and (2) the K-S goodness of fit statistical tests confirm the marginal distributions re-derived reveal the underlying univariate probability densities which further

  18. Comparison of the effects of caudal pole hemi-meniscectomy and complete medial meniscectomy in the canine stifle joint.

    PubMed

    Johnson, K A; Francis, D J; Manley, P A; Chu, Q; Caterson, B

    2004-08-01

    To compare the effects of caudal pole hemi-meniscectomy (CPHM) and complete medial meniscectomy (MM), specifically with respect to development of secondary osteoarthritis, in the stifle joints of clinically normal dogs. 14 large-breed dogs. Unilateral CPHM (7 dogs) or MM (7) was performed, and the left stifle joints served as untreated control joints. Gait was assessed in all dogs before surgery and at 4, 8, 12, and 16 weeks postoperatively. After euthanasia, joints were evaluated grossly; Mankin cartilage scores, subchondral bone density assessment, and articular cartilage proteoglycan extraction and western blot analyses of 3B3(-) and 7D4 epitopes were performed. Weight distribution on control limbs exceeded that of treated limbs at 4 and 16 weeks after surgery in the CPHM group and at 4 and 8 weeks after surgery in the MM group; weight distribution was not significantly different between the 2 groups. After 16 weeks, incomplete meniscal regeneration and cartilage fibrillation on the medial aspect of the tibial plateau and medial femoral condyle were detected in treated joints in both groups. Mankin cartilage scores, subchondral bone density, and immunoexpression of 3B3(-) or 7D4 in articular cartilage in CPHM- or MM-treated joints were similar; 7D4 epitope concentration in synovial fluid was significantly greater in the MM-treated joints than in CPHM-treated joints. Overall severity of secondary osteoarthritis induced by CPHM and MM was similar. Investigation of 7D4 epitope concentration in synovial fluid suggested that CPHM was associated with less disruption of chondrocyte metabolism.

  19. A biology-driven receptor model for daily pollen allergy risk in Korea based on Weibull probability density function.

    PubMed

    Kim, Kyu Rang; Kim, Mijin; Choe, Ho-Seong; Han, Mae Ja; Lee, Hye-Rim; Oh, Jae-Won; Kim, Baek-Jo

    2017-02-01

    Pollen is an important cause of respiratory allergic reactions. As individual sanitation has improved, allergy risk has increased, and this trend is expected to continue due to climate change. Atmospheric pollen concentration is highly influenced by weather conditions. Regression analysis and modeling of the relationships between airborne pollen concentrations and weather conditions were performed to analyze and forecast pollen conditions. Traditionally, daily pollen concentration has been estimated using regression models that describe the relationships between observed pollen concentrations and weather conditions. These models were able to forecast daily concentrations at the sites of observation, but lacked broader spatial applicability beyond those sites. To overcome this limitation, an integrated modeling scheme was developed that is designed to represent the underlying processes of pollen production and distribution. A maximum potential for airborne pollen is first determined using the Weibull probability density function. Then, daily pollen concentration is estimated using multiple regression models. Daily risk grade levels are determined based on the risk criteria used in Korea. The mean percentages of agreement between the observed and estimated levels were 81.4-88.2 % and 92.5-98.5 % for oak and Japanese hop pollens, respectively. The new models estimated daily pollen risk more accurately than the original statistical models because of the newly integrated biological response curves. Although they overestimated seasonal mean concentration, they did not simulate all of the peak concentrations. This issue would be resolved by adding more variables that affect the prevalence and internal maturity of pollens.

  20. Exposing extinction risk analysis to pathogens: Is disease just another form of density dependence?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gerber, L.R.; McCallum, H.; Lafferty, K.D.; Sabo, J.L.; Dobson, A.

    2005-01-01

    In the United States and several other countries, the development of population viability analyses (PVA) is a legal requirement of any species survival plan developed for threatened and endangered species. Despite the importance of pathogens in natural populations, little attention has been given to host-pathogen dynamics in PVA. To study the effect of infectious pathogens on extinction risk estimates generated from PVA, we review and synthesize the relevance of host-pathogen dynamics in analyses of extinction risk. We then develop a stochastic, density-dependent host-parasite model to investigate the effects of disease on the persistence of endangered populations. We show that this model converges on a Ricker model of density dependence under a suite of limiting assumptions, including a high probability that epidemics will arrive and occur. Using this modeling framework, we then quantify: (1) dynamic differences between time series generated by disease and Ricker processes with the same parameters; (2) observed probabilities of quasi-extinction for populations exposed to disease or self-limitation; and (3) bias in probabilities of quasi-extinction estimated by density-independent PVAs when populations experience either form of density dependence. Our results suggest two generalities about the relationships among disease, PVA, and the management of endangered species. First, disease more strongly increases variability in host abundance and, thus, the probability of quasi-extinction, than does self-limitation. This result stems from the fact that the effects and the probability of occurrence of disease are both density dependent. Second, estimates of quasi-extinction are more often overly optimistic for populations experiencing disease than for those subject to self-limitation. Thus, although the results of density-independent PVAs may be relatively robust to some particular assumptions about density dependence, they are less robust when endangered populations are

  1. Determination of Parachute Joint Factors using Seam and Joint Testing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mollmann, Catherine

    2015-01-01

    This paper details the methodology for determining the joint factor for all parachute components. This method has been successfully implemented on the Capsule Parachute Assembly System (CPAS) for the NASA Orion crew module for use in determining the margin of safety for each component under peak loads. Also discussed are concepts behind the joint factor and what drives the loss of material strength at joints. The joint factor is defined as a "loss in joint strength...relative to the basic material strength" that occurs when "textiles are connected to each other or to metals." During the CPAS engineering development phase, a conservative joint factor of 0.80 was assumed for each parachute component. In order to refine this factor and eliminate excess conservatism, a seam and joint testing program was implemented as part of the structural validation. This method split each of the parachute structural joints into discrete tensile tests designed to duplicate the loading of each joint. Breaking strength data collected from destructive pull testing was then used to calculate the joint factor in the form of an efficiency. Joint efficiency is the percentage of the base material strength that remains after degradation due to sewing or interaction with other components; it is used interchangeably with joint factor in this paper. Parachute materials vary in type-mainly cord, tape, webbing, and cloth -which require different test fixtures and joint sample construction methods. This paper defines guidelines for designing and testing samples based on materials and test goals. Using the test methodology and analysis approach detailed in this paper, the minimum joint factor for each parachute component can be formulated. The joint factors can then be used to calculate the design factor and margin of safety for that component, a critical part of the design verification process.

  2. Analysis of metallic impurity density profiles in low collisionality Joint European Torus H-mode and L-mode plasmas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Puiatti, M. E.; Valisa, M.; Angioni, C.; Garzotti, L.; Mantica, P.; Mattioli, M.; Carraro, L.; Coffey, I.; Sozzi, C.

    2006-04-01

    This paper describes the behavior of nickel in low confinement (L-mode) and high confinement (H-mode) Joint European Torus (JET) discharges [P. J. Lomas, Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion 31, 1481 (1989)] characterized by the application of radio-frequency (rf) power heating and featuring ITER (International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor) relevant collisionality. The impurity transport is analyzed on the basis of perturbative experiments (laser blow off injection) and is compared with electron heat and deuterium transport. In the JET plasmas analyzed here, ion cyclotron resonance heating (ICRH) is applied either in mode conversion (MC) to heat the electrons or in minority heating (MH) to heat the ions. The two heating schemes have systematically different effects on nickel transport, yielding flat or slightly hollow nickel density profiles in the case of ICRH in MC and peaked nickel density profiles in the case of rf applied in MH. Accordingly, both diffusion coefficients and pinch velocities of nickel are found to be systematically different. Linear gyrokinetic calculations by means of the code GS2 [M. Kotschenreuther, G. Rewoldt, and W.M. Tang, Comput. Phys. Commun. 88, 128 (1995)] provide a possible explanation of such different behavior by exploring the effects produced by the different microinstabilities present in these plasmas. In particular, trapped electron modes driven by the stronger electron temperature gradients measured in the MC cases, although subdominant, produce a contribution to the impurity pinch directed outwards that is qualitatively in agreement with the pinch reversal found in the experiment. Particle and heat diffusivities appear to be decoupled in MH shots, with χe and DD≫DNi, and are instead quite similar in the MC ones. In the latter case, nickel transport appears to be driven by the same turbulence that drives the electron heat transport and is sensitive to the value of the electron temperature gradient length. These findings give

  3. Spacesuit mobility joints

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vykukal, H. C. (Inventor)

    1978-01-01

    Joints for use in interconnecting adjacent segments of an hermetically sealed spacesuit which have low torques, low leakage and a high degree of reliability are described. Each of the joints is a special purpose joint characterized by substantially constant volume and low torque characteristics. Linkages which restrain the joint from longitudinal distension and a flexible, substantially impermeable diaphragm of tubular configuration spanning the distance between pivotally supported annuli are featured. The diaphragms of selected joints include rolling convolutions for balancing the joints, while various joints include wedge-shaped sections which enhance the range of motion for the joints.

  4. A removal model for estimating detection probabilities from point-count surveys

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Farnsworth, G.L.; Pollock, K.H.; Nichols, J.D.; Simons, T.R.; Hines, J.E.; Sauer, J.R.

    2002-01-01

    Use of point-count surveys is a popular method for collecting data on abundance and distribution of birds. However, analyses of such data often ignore potential differences in detection probability. We adapted a removal model to directly estimate detection probability during point-count surveys. The model assumes that singing frequency is a major factor influencing probability of detection when birds are surveyed using point counts. This may be appropriate for surveys in which most detections are by sound. The model requires counts to be divided into several time intervals. Point counts are often conducted for 10 min, where the number of birds recorded is divided into those first observed in the first 3 min, the subsequent 2 min, and the last 5 min. We developed a maximum-likelihood estimator for the detectability of birds recorded during counts divided into those intervals. This technique can easily be adapted to point counts divided into intervals of any length. We applied this method to unlimited-radius counts conducted in Great Smoky Mountains National Park. We used model selection criteria to identify whether detection probabilities varied among species, throughout the morning, throughout the season, and among different observers. We found differences in detection probability among species. Species that sing frequently such as Winter Wren (Troglodytes troglodytes) and Acadian Flycatcher (Empidonax virescens) had high detection probabilities (∼90%) and species that call infrequently such as Pileated Woodpecker (Dryocopus pileatus) had low detection probability (36%). We also found detection probabilities varied with the time of day for some species (e.g. thrushes) and between observers for other species. We used the same approach to estimate detection probability and density for a subset of the observations with limited-radius point counts.

  5. Measuring attention using the Posner cuing paradigm: the role of across and within trial target probabilities

    PubMed Central

    Hayward, Dana A.; Ristic, Jelena

    2013-01-01

    Numerous studies conducted within the recent decades have utilized the Posner cuing paradigm for eliciting, measuring, and theoretically characterizing attentional orienting. However, the data from recent studies suggest that the Posner cuing task might not provide an unambiguous measure of attention, as reflexive spatial orienting has been found to interact with extraneous processes engaged by the task's typical structure, i.e., the probability of target presence across trials, which affects tonic alertness, and the probability of target presence within trials, which affects voluntary temporal preparation. To understand the contribution of each of these two processes to the measurement of attentional orienting we assessed their individual and combined effects on reflexive attention elicited by a spatially nonpredictive peripheral cue. Our results revealed that the magnitude of spatial orienting was modulated by joint changes in the global probability of target presence across trials and the local probability of target presence within trials, while the time course of spatial orienting was susceptible to changes in the probability of target presence across trials. These data thus raise important questions about the choice of task parameters within the Posner cuing paradigm and their role in both the measurement and theoretical attributions of the observed attentional effects. PMID:23730280

  6. A Probabilistic Approach to Predict Thermal Fatigue Life for Ball Grid Array Solder Joints

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wei, Helin; Wang, Kuisheng

    2011-11-01

    Numerous studies of the reliability of solder joints have been performed. Most life prediction models are limited to a deterministic approach. However, manufacturing induces uncertainty in the geometry parameters of solder joints, and the environmental temperature varies widely due to end-user diversity, creating uncertainties in the reliability of solder joints. In this study, a methodology for accounting for variation in the lifetime prediction for lead-free solder joints of ball grid array packages (PBGA) is demonstrated. The key aspects of the solder joint parameters and the cyclic temperature range related to reliability are involved. Probabilistic solutions of the inelastic strain range and thermal fatigue life based on the Engelmaier model are developed to determine the probability of solder joint failure. The results indicate that the standard deviation increases significantly when more random variations are involved. Using the probabilistic method, the influence of each variable on the thermal fatigue life is quantified. This information can be used to optimize product design and process validation acceptance criteria. The probabilistic approach creates the opportunity to identify the root causes of failed samples from product fatigue tests and field returns. The method can be applied to better understand how variation affects parameters of interest in an electronic package design with area array interconnections.

  7. Incompressible variable-density turbulence in an external acceleration field

    DOE PAGES

    Gat, Ilana; Matheou, Georgios; Chung, Daniel; ...

    2017-08-24

    Dynamics and mixing of a variable-density turbulent flow subject to an externally imposed acceleration field in the zero-Mach-number limit are studied in a series of direct numerical simulations. The flow configuration studied consists of alternating slabs of high- and low-density fluid in a triply periodic domain. Density ratios in the range ofmore » $$1.05\\leqslant R\\equiv \\unicode[STIX]{x1D70C}_{1}/\\unicode[STIX]{x1D70C}_{2}\\leqslant 10$$are investigated. The flow produces temporally evolving shear layers. A perpendicular density–pressure gradient is maintained in the mean as the flow evolves, with multi-scale baroclinic torques generated in the turbulent flow that ensues. For all density ratios studied, the simulations attain Reynolds numbers at the beginning of the fully developed turbulence regime. An empirical relation for the convection velocity predicts the observed entrainment-ratio and dominant mixed-fluid composition statistics. Two mixing-layer temporal evolution regimes are identified: an initial diffusion-dominated regime with a growth rate$${\\sim}t^{1/2}$$followed by a turbulence-dominated regime with a growth rate$${\\sim}t^{3}$$. In the turbulent regime, composition probability density functions within the shear layers exhibit a slightly tilted (‘non-marching’) hump, corresponding to the most probable mole fraction. In conclusion, the shear layers preferentially entrain low-density fluid by volume at all density ratios, which is reflected in the mixed-fluid composition.« less

  8. Incompressible variable-density turbulence in an external acceleration field

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Gat, Ilana; Matheou, Georgios; Chung, Daniel

    Dynamics and mixing of a variable-density turbulent flow subject to an externally imposed acceleration field in the zero-Mach-number limit are studied in a series of direct numerical simulations. The flow configuration studied consists of alternating slabs of high- and low-density fluid in a triply periodic domain. Density ratios in the range ofmore » $$1.05\\leqslant R\\equiv \\unicode[STIX]{x1D70C}_{1}/\\unicode[STIX]{x1D70C}_{2}\\leqslant 10$$are investigated. The flow produces temporally evolving shear layers. A perpendicular density–pressure gradient is maintained in the mean as the flow evolves, with multi-scale baroclinic torques generated in the turbulent flow that ensues. For all density ratios studied, the simulations attain Reynolds numbers at the beginning of the fully developed turbulence regime. An empirical relation for the convection velocity predicts the observed entrainment-ratio and dominant mixed-fluid composition statistics. Two mixing-layer temporal evolution regimes are identified: an initial diffusion-dominated regime with a growth rate$${\\sim}t^{1/2}$$followed by a turbulence-dominated regime with a growth rate$${\\sim}t^{3}$$. In the turbulent regime, composition probability density functions within the shear layers exhibit a slightly tilted (‘non-marching’) hump, corresponding to the most probable mole fraction. In conclusion, the shear layers preferentially entrain low-density fluid by volume at all density ratios, which is reflected in the mixed-fluid composition.« less

  9. Continuity equation for probability as a requirement of inference over paths

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    González, Diego; Díaz, Daniela; Davis, Sergio

    2016-09-01

    Local conservation of probability, expressed as the continuity equation, is a central feature of non-equilibrium Statistical Mechanics. In the existing literature, the continuity equation is always motivated by heuristic arguments with no derivation from first principles. In this work we show that the continuity equation is a logical consequence of the laws of probability and the application of the formalism of inference over paths for dynamical systems. That is, the simple postulate that a system moves continuously through time following paths implies the continuity equation. The translation between the language of dynamical paths to the usual representation in terms of probability densities of states is performed by means of an identity derived from Bayes' theorem. The formalism presented here is valid independently of the nature of the system studied: it is applicable to physical systems and also to more abstract dynamics such as financial indicators, population dynamics in ecology among others.

  10. Active Free Surface Density Maps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Çelen, S.

    2016-10-01

    Percolation problems were occupied to many physical problems after their establishment in 1957 by Broadbent and Hammersley. They can be used to solve complex systems such as bone remodeling. Volume fraction method was adopted to set some algorithms in the literature. However, different rate of osteoporosis could be observed for different microstructures which have the same mass density, mechanical stimuli, hormonal stimuli and nutrition. Thus it was emphasized that the bone might have identical porosity with different specific surfaces. Active free surface density of bone refers the used total area for its effective free surface. The purpose of this manuscript is to consolidate a mathematical approach which can be called as “active free surface density maps” for different surface patterns and derive their formulations. Active free surface density ratios were calculated for different Archimedean lattice models according to Helmholtz free energy and they were compared with their site and bond percolation thresholds from the background studies to derive their potential probability for bone remodeling.

  11. Using areas of known occupancy to identify sources of variation in detection probability of raptors: taking time lowers replication effort for surveys.

    PubMed

    Murn, Campbell; Holloway, Graham J

    2016-10-01

    Species occurring at low density can be difficult to detect and if not properly accounted for, imperfect detection will lead to inaccurate estimates of occupancy. Understanding sources of variation in detection probability and how they can be managed is a key part of monitoring. We used sightings data of a low-density and elusive raptor (white-headed vulture Trigonoceps occipitalis ) in areas of known occupancy (breeding territories) in a likelihood-based modelling approach to calculate detection probability and the factors affecting it. Because occupancy was known a priori to be 100%, we fixed the model occupancy parameter to 1.0 and focused on identifying sources of variation in detection probability. Using detection histories from 359 territory visits, we assessed nine covariates in 29 candidate models. The model with the highest support indicated that observer speed during a survey, combined with temporal covariates such as time of year and length of time within a territory, had the highest influence on the detection probability. Averaged detection probability was 0.207 (s.e. 0.033) and based on this the mean number of visits required to determine within 95% confidence that white-headed vultures are absent from a breeding area is 13 (95% CI: 9-20). Topographical and habitat covariates contributed little to the best models and had little effect on detection probability. We highlight that low detection probabilities of some species means that emphasizing habitat covariates could lead to spurious results in occupancy models that do not also incorporate temporal components. While variation in detection probability is complex and influenced by effects at both temporal and spatial scales, temporal covariates can and should be controlled as part of robust survey methods. Our results emphasize the importance of accounting for detection probability in occupancy studies, particularly during presence/absence studies for species such as raptors that are widespread and

  12. Evaluating The Risk Of Osteoporosis Through Bone Mass Density.

    PubMed

    Sayed, Sayeeda Amber; Khaliq, Asif; Mahmood, Ashar

    2016-01-01

    Osteoporosis is a bone disorder, characterized by loss of bone mass density. Osteoporosis affects more than 30% of post-menopausal women. Osteoporosis is often associated with restricted body movement, pain and joint deformities. Early identification and early intervention can help in reducing these complications. The primary objective of this study was to estimate the burden of Osteoporosis in Urban setting of Sindh among women of different age groups and to access the effect of different protective measures that can reduce the risk of Osteoporosis. In this study, 500 women's of 3 major cities of Sindh were approached by non-probability convenience sampling technique. Women bearing age 20 years or more were included. Women who fall under inclusion criteria were screened for BMD (Bone mineral density) test and were classified as Healthy, Osteopenic and Osteoporotic based on their T-score. The association of different protective measures and risk of osteoporosis was assessed by prevalence relative risk (PRR). The result of this study indicate that the burden of Osteoporosis is very high among the women of Sindh, only 17.4% (84) women were found to have normal BMD score. The life style of majority of women was sedentary. The PRR calculated for Exposure to sunlight, regular exercise, and use of nutritional supplement was 12.5, 5.19 and 2.72 folds respectively. The results of study reveal that exposure to sunlight, regular physical exercise and use of nutritional supplements found to be effective in reducing the risk of osteoporosis among women of all age group. Health education and promotion toward osteoporosis prevention can significantly contribute in reducing the morbidity of osteoporosis.

  13. Outage probability of a relay strategy allowing intra-link errors utilizing Slepian-Wolf theorem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheng, Meng; Anwar, Khoirul; Matsumoto, Tad

    2013-12-01

    In conventional decode-and-forward (DF) one-way relay systems, a data block received at the relay node is discarded, if the information part is found to have errors after decoding. Such errors are referred to as intra-link errors in this article. However, in a setup where the relay forwards data blocks despite possible intra-link errors, the two data blocks, one from the source node and the other from the relay node, are highly correlated because they were transmitted from the same source. In this article, we focus on the outage probability analysis of such a relay transmission system, where source-destination and relay-destination links, Link 1 and Link 2, respectively, are assumed to suffer from the correlated fading variation due to block Rayleigh fading. The intra-link is assumed to be represented by a simple bit-flipping model, where some of the information bits recovered at the relay node are the flipped version of their corresponding original information bits at the source. The correlated bit streams are encoded separately by the source and relay nodes, and transmitted block-by-block to a common destination using different time slots, where the information sequence transmitted over Link 2 may be a noise-corrupted interleaved version of the original sequence. The joint decoding takes place at the destination by exploiting the correlation knowledge of the intra-link (source-relay link). It is shown that the outage probability of the proposed transmission technique can be expressed by a set of double integrals over the admissible rate range, given by the Slepian-Wolf theorem, with respect to the probability density function ( pdf) of the instantaneous signal-to-noise power ratios (SNR) of Link 1 and Link 2. It is found that, with the Slepian-Wolf relay technique, so far as the correlation ρ of the complex fading variation is | ρ|<1, the 2nd order diversity can be achieved only if the two bit streams are fully correlated. This indicates that the diversity

  14. Characterization of friction stir welded joint of low nickel austenitic stainless steel and modified ferritic stainless steel

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mondal, Mounarik; Das, Hrishikesh; Ahn, Eun Yeong; Hong, Sung Tae; Kim, Moon-Jo; Han, Heung Nam; Pal, Tapan Kumar

    2017-09-01

    Friction stir welding (FSW) of dissimilar stainless steels, low nickel austenitic stainless steel and 409M ferritic stainless steel, is experimentally investigated. Process responses during FSW and the microstructures of the resultant dissimilar joints are evaluated. Material flow in the stir zone is investigated in detail by elemental mapping. Elemental mapping of the dissimilar joints clearly indicates that the material flow pattern during FSW depends on the process parameter combination. Dynamic recrystallization and recovery are also observed in the dissimilar joints. Among the two different stainless steels selected in the present study, the ferritic stainless steels shows more severe dynamic recrystallization, resulting in a very fine microstructure, probably due to the higher stacking fault energy.

  15. RADC Multi-Dimensional Signal-Processing Research Program.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1980-09-30

    Formulation 7 3.2.2 Methods of Accelerating Convergence 8 3.2.3 Application to Image Deblurring 8 3.2.4 Extensions 11 3.3 Convergence of Iterative Signal... noise -driven linear filters, permit development of the joint probability density function oz " kelihood function for the image. With an expression...spatial linear filter driven by white noise (see Fig. i). If the probability density function for the white noise is known, Fig. t. Model for image

  16. Joint Stochastic Inversion of Pre-Stack 3D Seismic Data and Well Logs for High Resolution Hydrocarbon Reservoir Characterization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Torres-Verdin, C.

    2007-05-01

    This paper describes the successful implementation of a new 3D AVA stochastic inversion algorithm to quantitatively integrate pre-stack seismic amplitude data and well logs. The stochastic inversion algorithm is used to characterize flow units of a deepwater reservoir located in the central Gulf of Mexico. Conventional fluid/lithology sensitivity analysis indicates that the shale/sand interface represented by the top of the hydrocarbon-bearing turbidite deposits generates typical Class III AVA responses. On the other hand, layer- dependent Biot-Gassmann analysis shows significant sensitivity of the P-wave velocity and density to fluid substitution. Accordingly, AVA stochastic inversion, which combines the advantages of AVA analysis with those of geostatistical inversion, provided quantitative information about the lateral continuity of the turbidite reservoirs based on the interpretation of inverted acoustic properties (P-velocity, S-velocity, density), and lithotype (sand- shale) distributions. The quantitative use of rock/fluid information through AVA seismic amplitude data, coupled with the implementation of co-simulation via lithotype-dependent multidimensional joint probability distributions of acoustic/petrophysical properties, yields accurate 3D models of petrophysical properties such as porosity and permeability. Finally, by fully integrating pre-stack seismic amplitude data and well logs, the vertical resolution of inverted products is higher than that of deterministic inversions methods.

  17. Generating short-term probabilistic wind power scenarios via nonparametric forecast error density estimators: Generating short-term probabilistic wind power scenarios via nonparametric forecast error density estimators

    DOE PAGES

    Staid, Andrea; Watson, Jean -Paul; Wets, Roger J. -B.; ...

    2017-07-11

    Forecasts of available wind power are critical in key electric power systems operations planning problems, including economic dispatch and unit commitment. Such forecasts are necessarily uncertain, limiting the reliability and cost effectiveness of operations planning models based on a single deterministic or “point” forecast. A common approach to address this limitation involves the use of a number of probabilistic scenarios, each specifying a possible trajectory of wind power production, with associated probability. We present and analyze a novel method for generating probabilistic wind power scenarios, leveraging available historical information in the form of forecasted and corresponding observed wind power timemore » series. We estimate non-parametric forecast error densities, specifically using epi-spline basis functions, allowing us to capture the skewed and non-parametric nature of error densities observed in real-world data. We then describe a method to generate probabilistic scenarios from these basis functions that allows users to control for the degree to which extreme errors are captured.We compare the performance of our approach to the current state-of-the-art considering publicly available data associated with the Bonneville Power Administration, analyzing aggregate production of a number of wind farms over a large geographic region. Finally, we discuss the advantages of our approach in the context of specific power systems operations planning problems: stochastic unit commitment and economic dispatch. Here, our methodology is embodied in the joint Sandia – University of California Davis Prescient software package for assessing and analyzing stochastic operations strategies.« less

  18. Generating short-term probabilistic wind power scenarios via nonparametric forecast error density estimators: Generating short-term probabilistic wind power scenarios via nonparametric forecast error density estimators

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Staid, Andrea; Watson, Jean -Paul; Wets, Roger J. -B.

    Forecasts of available wind power are critical in key electric power systems operations planning problems, including economic dispatch and unit commitment. Such forecasts are necessarily uncertain, limiting the reliability and cost effectiveness of operations planning models based on a single deterministic or “point” forecast. A common approach to address this limitation involves the use of a number of probabilistic scenarios, each specifying a possible trajectory of wind power production, with associated probability. We present and analyze a novel method for generating probabilistic wind power scenarios, leveraging available historical information in the form of forecasted and corresponding observed wind power timemore » series. We estimate non-parametric forecast error densities, specifically using epi-spline basis functions, allowing us to capture the skewed and non-parametric nature of error densities observed in real-world data. We then describe a method to generate probabilistic scenarios from these basis functions that allows users to control for the degree to which extreme errors are captured.We compare the performance of our approach to the current state-of-the-art considering publicly available data associated with the Bonneville Power Administration, analyzing aggregate production of a number of wind farms over a large geographic region. Finally, we discuss the advantages of our approach in the context of specific power systems operations planning problems: stochastic unit commitment and economic dispatch. Here, our methodology is embodied in the joint Sandia – University of California Davis Prescient software package for assessing and analyzing stochastic operations strategies.« less

  19. Removal Torque and Biofilm Accumulation at Two Dental Implant-Abutment Joints After Fatigue.

    PubMed

    Pereira, Jorge; Morsch, Carolina S; Henriques, Bruno; Nascimento, Rubens M; Benfatti, Cesar Am; Silva, Filipe S; López-López, José; Souza, Júlio Cm

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the removal torque and in vitro biofilm penetration at Morse taper and hexagonal implant-abutment joints after fatigue tests. Sixty dental implants were divided into two groups: (1) Morse taper and (2) external hexagon implant-abutment systems. Fatigue tests on the implant-abutment assemblies were performed at a normal force (FN) of 50 N at 1.2 Hz for 500,000 cycles in growth medium containing human saliva for 72 hours. Removal torque mean values (n = 10) were measured after fatigue tests. Abutments were then immersed in 1% protease solution in order to detach the biofilms for optical density and colony-forming unit (CFU/cm²) analyses. Groups of implant-abutment assemblies (n = 8) were cross-sectioned at 90 degrees relative to the plane of the implant-abutment joints for the microgap measurement by field-emission guns scanning electron microscopy. Mean values of removal torque on abutments were significantly lower for both Morse taper (22.1 ± 0.5 μm) and external hexagon (21.1 ± 0.7 μm) abutments after fatigue tests than those recorded without fatigue tests (respectively, 24 ± 0.5 μm and 24.8 ± 0.6 μm) in biofilm medium for 72 hours (P = .04). Mean values of microgap size for the Morse taper joints were statistically signicantly lower without fatigue tests (1.7 ± 0.4 μm) than those recorded after fatigue tests (3.2 ± 0.8 μm). Also, mean values of microgap size for external hexagon joints free of fatigue were statistically signicantly lower (1.5 ± 0.4 μm) than those recorded after fatigue tests (8.1 ± 1.7 μm) (P < .05). The optical density of biofilms and CFU mean values were lower on Morse taper abutments (Abs630nm at 0.06 and 2.9 × 10⁴ CFU/cm²) than that on external hexagon abutments (Abs630nm at 0.08 and 4.5 × 10⁴ CFU/cm²) (P = .01). The mean values of removal torque, microgap size, and biofilm density recorded at Morse taper joints were lower in comparison to those recorded at external hexagon

  20. Time- and temperature-dependent failures of a bonded joint

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sihn, Sangwook

    -temperature equivalence and the residual strength degradation model enables us to estimate the fatigue life of the bonded joint at different load levels, frequencies and temperatures with a certain probability. A numerical example shows how to apply the life estimation method to a structure subjected to a random load history by rainflow cycle counting.

  1. Joint weak value for all order coupling using continuous variable and qubit probe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumari, Asmita; Pan, Alok Kumar; Panigrahi, Prasanta K.

    2017-11-01

    The notion of weak measurement in quantum mechanics has gained a significant and wide interest in realizing apparently counterintuitive quantum effects. In recent times, several theoretical and experimental works have been reported for demonstrating the joint weak value of two observables where the coupling strength is restricted to the second order. In this paper, we extend such a formulation by providing a complete treatment of joint weak measurement scenario for all-order-coupling for the observable satisfying A 2 = 𝕀 and A 2 = A, which allows us to reveal several hitherto unexplored features. By considering the probe state to be discrete as well as continuous variable, we demonstrate how the joint weak value can be inferred for any given strength of the coupling. A particularly interesting result we pointed out that even if the initial pointer state is uncorrelated, the single pointer displacement can provide the information about the joint weak value, if at least third order of the coupling is taken into account. As an application of our scheme, we provide an all-order-coupling treatment of the well-known Hardy paradox by considering the continuous as well as discrete meter states and show how the negative joint weak probabilities emerge in the quantum paradoxes at the weak coupling limit.

  2. Moments of the phase-space density, coincidence probabilities, and entropies of a multiparticle system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bialas, A.

    2006-04-01

    A method to estimate moments of the phase-space density from event-by-event fluctuations is reviewed and its accuracy analyzed. Relation of these measurements to the determination of the entropy of the system is discussed. This is a summary of the results obtained recently together with W.Czyz and K.Zalewski.

  3. Quantifying Hydroperiod, Fire and Nutrient Effects on the Composition of Plant Communities in Marl Prairie of the Everglades: a Joint Probability Method Based Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhai, L.

    2017-12-01

    Plant community can be simultaneously affected by human activities and climate changes, and quantifying and predicting this combined effect on plant community by appropriate model framework which is validated by field data is complex, but very useful to conservation management. Plant communities in the Everglades provide an unique set of conditions to develop and validate this model framework, because they are both experiencing intensive effects of human activities (such as changing hydroperiod by drainage and restoration projects, nutrients from upstream agriculture, prescribed fire, etc.) and climate changes (such as warming, changing precipitation patter, sea level rise, etc.). More importantly, previous research attention focuses on plant communities in slough ecosystem (including ridge, slough and their tree islands), very few studies consider the marl prairie ecosystem. Comparing with slough ecosystem featured by remaining consistently flooded almost year-round, marl prairie has relatively shorter hydroperiod (just in wet-season of one year). Therefore, plant communities of marl prairie may receive more impacts from hydroperiod change. In addition to hydroperiod, fire and nutrients also affect the plant communities in the marl prairie. Therefore, to quantify the combined effects of water level, fire, and nutrients on the composition of the plant communities, we are developing a joint probability method based vegetation dynamic model. Further, the model is being validated by field data about changes of vegetation assemblage along environmental gradients in the marl prairie. Our poster showed preliminary data from our current project.

  4. Toward accurate and precise estimates of lion density.

    PubMed

    Elliot, Nicholas B; Gopalaswamy, Arjun M

    2017-08-01

    Reliable estimates of animal density are fundamental to understanding ecological processes and population dynamics. Furthermore, their accuracy is vital to conservation because wildlife authorities rely on estimates to make decisions. However, it is notoriously difficult to accurately estimate density for wide-ranging carnivores that occur at low densities. In recent years, significant progress has been made in density estimation of Asian carnivores, but the methods have not been widely adapted to African carnivores, such as lions (Panthera leo). Although abundance indices for lions may produce poor inferences, they continue to be used to estimate density and inform management and policy. We used sighting data from a 3-month survey and adapted a Bayesian spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) model to estimate spatial lion density in the Maasai Mara National Reserve and surrounding conservancies in Kenya. Our unstructured spatial capture-recapture sampling design incorporated search effort to explicitly estimate detection probability and density on a fine spatial scale, making our approach robust in the context of varying detection probabilities. Overall posterior mean lion density was estimated to be 17.08 (posterior SD 1.310) lions >1 year old/100 km 2 , and the sex ratio was estimated at 2.2 females to 1 male. Our modeling framework and narrow posterior SD demonstrate that SECR methods can produce statistically rigorous and precise estimates of population parameters, and we argue that they should be favored over less reliable abundance indices. Furthermore, our approach is flexible enough to incorporate different data types, which enables robust population estimates over relatively short survey periods in a variety of systems. Trend analyses are essential to guide conservation decisions but are frequently based on surveys of differing reliability. We therefore call for a unified framework to assess lion numbers in key populations to improve management and

  5. Probability of detection of nests and implications for survey design

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Smith, P.A.; Bart, J.; Lanctot, Richard B.; McCaffery, B.J.; Brown, S.

    2009-01-01

    Surveys based on double sampling include a correction for the probability of detection by assuming complete enumeration of birds in an intensively surveyed subsample of plots. To evaluate this assumption, we calculated the probability of detecting active shorebird nests by using information from observers who searched the same plots independently. Our results demonstrate that this probability varies substantially by species and stage of the nesting cycle but less by site or density of nests. Among the species we studied, the estimated single-visit probability of nest detection during the incubation period varied from 0.21 for the White-rumped Sandpiper (Calidris fuscicollis), the most difficult species to detect, to 0.64 for the Western Sandpiper (Calidris mauri), the most easily detected species, with a mean across species of 0.46. We used these detection probabilities to predict the fraction of persistent nests found over repeated nest searches. For a species with the mean value for detectability, the detection rate exceeded 0.85 after four visits. This level of nest detection was exceeded in only three visits for the Western Sandpiper, but six to nine visits were required for the White-rumped Sandpiper, depending on the type of survey employed. Our results suggest that the double-sampling method's requirement of nearly complete counts of birds in the intensively surveyed plots is likely to be met for birds with nests that survive over several visits of nest searching. Individuals with nests that fail quickly or individuals that do not breed can be detected with high probability only if territorial behavior is used to identify likely nesting pairs. ?? The Cooper Ornithological Society, 2009.

  6. [Juvenile rheumatoid diseases: Endoprosthetic care of destroyed hip joints].

    PubMed

    Rehart, S; Henniger, M

    2015-07-01

    Patients with juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) often suffer from involvement of the hip joints, with joint destruction and related functional limitations, making hip replacement necessary. To discover what special features are to be expected in patients with JIA and hip arthroplasty and what impact they have on surgical indication, choice of implant, and technique. Selective literature review and evaluation of our patient population. Compared with osteoarthritis patients, JIA patients are on average much younger at the time of hip replacement. Owing to the onset of the disease in childhood or adolescence and the frequent glucocorticoid therapy, growth disorders or abnormal anatomical findings are common in these patients. Bone density is often reduced at an early age. The perioperative management of medication has to be planned. Special implants for patients with rheumatic diseases do not exist, but the above peculiarities of this group of patients should be considered for surgical procedure and choice of implant and material. Overall, the results of hip arthroplasty in juvenile rheumatic diseases, in terms of pain relief and functional improvement, are good. The limited life of the arthroplasty is problematic. By relieving pain, improvement of the range of motion and activity level very high patient satisfaction is usually achieved by hip arthroplasty in JIA patients. In the case of involvement of the contralateral hip or the ipsilateral knee joint it may be useful to perform a simultaneous, single-stage joint replacement of both joints.

  7. Weibull crack density coefficient for polydimensional stress states

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gross, Bernard; Gyekenyesi, John P.

    1989-01-01

    A structural ceramic analysis and reliability evaluation code has recently been developed encompassing volume and surface flaw induced fracture, modeled by the two-parameter Weibull probability density function. A segment of the software involves computing the Weibull polydimensional stress state crack density coefficient from uniaxial stress experimental fracture data. The relationship of the polydimensional stress coefficient to the uniaxial stress coefficient is derived for a shear-insensitive material with a random surface flaw population.

  8. Periprosthetic joint infection: are patients with multiple prosthetic joints at risk?

    PubMed

    Jafari, S Mehdi; Casper, David S; Restrepo, Camilo; Zmistowski, Benjamin; Parvizi, Javad; Sharkey, Peter F

    2012-06-01

    Patients who present with a periprosthetic joint infection in a single joint may have multiple prosthetic joints. The risk of these patients developing a subsequent infection in another prosthetic joint is unknown. Our purposes were (1) to identify the risk of developing a subsequent infection in another prosthetic joint and (2) to describe the time span and organism profile to the second prosthetic infection. We retrospectively identified 55 patients with periprosthetic joint infection who had another prosthetic joint in place at the time of presentation. Of the 55 patients, 11 (20%) developed a periprosthetic joint infection in a second joint. The type of organism was the same as the first infection in 4 (36%) of 11 patients. The time to developing a second infection averaged 2.0 years (range, 0-6.9 years). Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Diagnostics for Confounding of Time-varying and Other Joint Exposures.

    PubMed

    Jackson, John W

    2016-11-01

    The effects of joint exposures (or exposure regimes) include those of adhering to assigned treatment versus placebo in a randomized controlled trial, duration of exposure in a cohort study, interactions between exposures, and direct effects of exposure, among others. Unlike the setting of a single point exposure (e.g., propensity score matching), there are few tools to describe confounding for joint exposures or how well a method resolves it. Investigators need tools that describe confounding in ways that are conceptually grounded and intuitive for those who read, review, and use applied research to guide policy. We revisit the implications of exchangeability conditions that hold in sequentially randomized trials, and the bias structure that motivates the use of g-methods, such as marginal structural models. From these, we develop covariate balance diagnostics for joint exposures that can (1) describe time-varying confounding, (2) assess whether covariates are predicted by prior exposures given their past, the indication for g-methods, and (3) describe residual confounding after inverse probability weighting. For each diagnostic, we present time-specific metrics that encompass a wide class of joint exposures, including regimes of multivariate time-varying exposures in censored data, with multivariate point exposures as a special case. We outline how to estimate these directly or with regression and how to average them over person-time. Using a simulated example, we show how these metrics can be presented graphically. This conceptually grounded framework can potentially aid the transparent design, analysis, and reporting of studies that examine joint exposures. We provide easy-to-use tools to implement it.

  10. Multidimensional density shaping by sigmoids.

    PubMed

    Roth, Z; Baram, Y

    1996-01-01

    An estimate of the probability density function of a random vector is obtained by maximizing the output entropy of a feedforward network of sigmoidal units with respect to the input weights. Classification problems can be solved by selecting the class associated with the maximal estimated density. Newton's optimization method, applied to the estimated density, yields a recursive estimator for a random variable or a random sequence. A constrained connectivity structure yields a linear estimator, which is particularly suitable for "real time" prediction. A Gaussian nonlinearity yields a closed-form solution for the network's parameters, which may also be used for initializing the optimization algorithm when other nonlinearities are employed. A triangular connectivity between the neurons and the input, which is naturally suggested by the statistical setting, reduces the number of parameters. Applications to classification and forecasting problems are demonstrated.

  11. Maximum-entropy probability distributions under Lp-norm constraints

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dolinar, S.

    1991-01-01

    Continuous probability density functions and discrete probability mass functions are tabulated which maximize the differential entropy or absolute entropy, respectively, among all probability distributions with a given L sub p norm (i.e., a given pth absolute moment when p is a finite integer) and unconstrained or constrained value set. Expressions for the maximum entropy are evaluated as functions of the L sub p norm. The most interesting results are obtained and plotted for unconstrained (real valued) continuous random variables and for integer valued discrete random variables. The maximum entropy expressions are obtained in closed form for unconstrained continuous random variables, and in this case there is a simple straight line relationship between the maximum differential entropy and the logarithm of the L sub p norm. Corresponding expressions for arbitrary discrete and constrained continuous random variables are given parametrically; closed form expressions are available only for special cases. However, simpler alternative bounds on the maximum entropy of integer valued discrete random variables are obtained by applying the differential entropy results to continuous random variables which approximate the integer valued random variables in a natural manner. All the results are presented in an integrated framework that includes continuous and discrete random variables, constraints on the permissible value set, and all possible values of p. Understanding such as this is useful in evaluating the performance of data compression schemes.

  12. Characteristics of Laser Beam and Friction Stir Welded AISI 409M Ferritic Stainless Steel Joints

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lakshminarayanan, A. K.; Balasubramanian, V.

    2012-04-01

    This article presents the comparative evaluation of microstructural features and mechanical properties of friction stir welded (solid-state) and laser beam welded (high energy density fusion welding) AISI 409M grade ferritic stainless steel joints. Optical microscopy, microhardness testing, transverse tensile, and impact tests were performed. The coarse ferrite grains in the base material were changed to fine grains consisting duplex structure of ferrite and martensite due to the rapid cooling rate and high strain induced by severe plastic deformation caused by frictional stirring. On the other hand, columnar dendritic grain structure was observed in fusion zone of laser beam welded joints. Tensile testing indicates overmatching of the weld metal relative to the base metal irrespective of the welding processes used. The LBW joint exhibited superior impact toughness compared to the FSW joint.

  13. Birth/birth-death processes and their computable transition probabilities with biological applications.

    PubMed

    Ho, Lam Si Tung; Xu, Jason; Crawford, Forrest W; Minin, Vladimir N; Suchard, Marc A

    2018-03-01

    Birth-death processes track the size of a univariate population, but many biological systems involve interaction between populations, necessitating models for two or more populations simultaneously. A lack of efficient methods for evaluating finite-time transition probabilities of bivariate processes, however, has restricted statistical inference in these models. Researchers rely on computationally expensive methods such as matrix exponentiation or Monte Carlo approximation, restricting likelihood-based inference to small systems, or indirect methods such as approximate Bayesian computation. In this paper, we introduce the birth/birth-death process, a tractable bivariate extension of the birth-death process, where rates are allowed to be nonlinear. We develop an efficient algorithm to calculate its transition probabilities using a continued fraction representation of their Laplace transforms. Next, we identify several exemplary models arising in molecular epidemiology, macro-parasite evolution, and infectious disease modeling that fall within this class, and demonstrate advantages of our proposed method over existing approaches to inference in these models. Notably, the ubiquitous stochastic susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) model falls within this class, and we emphasize that computable transition probabilities newly enable direct inference of parameters in the SIR model. We also propose a very fast method for approximating the transition probabilities under the SIR model via a novel branching process simplification, and compare it to the continued fraction representation method with application to the 17th century plague in Eyam. Although the two methods produce similar maximum a posteriori estimates, the branching process approximation fails to capture the correlation structure in the joint posterior distribution.

  14. Probability Current in Hydrogen with Spin-Orbit Interaction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hodge, William; Migirditch, Sam; Kerr, William

    2013-03-01

    The spin-orbit interaction is a coupling between a particle's spin and its motion. The Hamiltonian for a spin- 1 / 2 particle which includes this coupling is H =p2/2 m + V (x) +∇/V (x) × p 2m2c2 . S . To describe the flow of probability in this system, we derive the continuity equation, which takes the usual form. In this case, however, we find the probability current density j (x , t) to be the sum of two terms. The first term is the one obtained by most quantum mechanics textbooks during their derivation of the continuity equation. The second term, js (x , t) =1/2m2c2 ∑ σ , σ ' = ↑ , ↓ [ ψ* (x , σ , t) < σ | S | σ ' > ψ (x , σ ' , t) ] × ∇ V (x) , arises due to the inclusion of the spin-orbit term in the Hamiltonian and is small compared to the first. Using a perturbative treatment, we calculate j (x , t) for hydrogenlike atoms; for states with l = 0 , we find that j (x , t) =js (x , t) .

  15. Impact extractive fracture of jointed steel plates of a bolted joint

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Daimaruya, M.; Fujiki, H.; Ambarita, H.

    2012-08-01

    This study is concerned with the development of a fracture criterion for the impact fracture of jointed steel plates of a bolted joint used in a car body. For the accurate prediction of crash characteristics of car bodies by computer-aided engineering (CAE), it is also necessary to examine the behavior and fracture of jointed steel plates subjected to impact loads. Although the actual impact fracture of jointed steel plates of a bolted joint used in cars is complicated, for simplifying the problem it might be classified into the shear fracture and the extractive fracture of jointed steel plates. Attention is given to the extractive fracture of jointed steel plates in this study. The extractive behavior and fracture of three kinds of steel plates used for cars are examined in experiments and numerical simulations. The impact extraction test of steel plates jointed by a bolt is performed using the one-bar method, together with the static test. In order to understand the mechanism of extractive fracture process of jointed steel plates, numerical simulations by a FEM code LS-DYNA are also carried out. The obtained results suggest that a stress-based fracture criterion may be developed for the impact extractive fracture of jointed steel plates of a bolted joint used in a car body.

  16. On Probability Domains IV

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frič, Roman; Papčo, Martin

    2017-12-01

    Stressing a categorical approach, we continue our study of fuzzified domains of probability, in which classical random events are replaced by measurable fuzzy random events. In operational probability theory (S. Bugajski) classical random variables are replaced by statistical maps (generalized distribution maps induced by random variables) and in fuzzy probability theory (S. Gudder) the central role is played by observables (maps between probability domains). We show that to each of the two generalized probability theories there corresponds a suitable category and the two resulting categories are dually equivalent. Statistical maps and observables become morphisms. A statistical map can send a degenerated (pure) state to a non-degenerated one —a quantum phenomenon and, dually, an observable can map a crisp random event to a genuine fuzzy random event —a fuzzy phenomenon. The dual equivalence means that the operational probability theory and the fuzzy probability theory coincide and the resulting generalized probability theory has two dual aspects: quantum and fuzzy. We close with some notes on products and coproducts in the dual categories.

  17. Connection between two statistical approaches for the modelling of particle velocity and concentration distributions in turbulent flow: The mesoscopic Eulerian formalism and the two-point probability density function method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Simonin, Olivier; Zaichik, Leonid I.; Alipchenkov, Vladimir M.; Février, Pierre

    2006-12-01

    The objective of the paper is to elucidate a connection between two approaches that have been separately proposed for modelling the statistical spatial properties of inertial particles in turbulent fluid flows. One of the approaches proposed recently by Février, Simonin, and Squires [J. Fluid Mech. 533, 1 (2005)] is based on the partitioning of particle turbulent velocity field into spatially correlated (mesoscopic Eulerian) and random-uncorrelated (quasi-Brownian) components. The other approach stems from a kinetic equation for the two-point probability density function of the velocity distributions of two particles [Zaichik and Alipchenkov, Phys. Fluids 15, 1776 (2003)]. Comparisons between these approaches are performed for isotropic homogeneous turbulence and demonstrate encouraging agreement.

  18. Thermally Conductive Metal-Tube/Carbon-Composite Joints

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Copeland, Robert J.

    2004-01-01

    An improved method of fabricating joints between metal and carbon-fiber-based composite materials in lightweight radiators and heat sinks has been devised. Carbon-fiber-based composite materials have been used in such heat-transfer devices because they offer a combination of high thermal conductivity and low mass density. Metal tubes are typically used to carry heat-transfer fluids to and from such heat-transfer devices. The present fabrication method helps to ensure that the joints between the metal tubes and the composite-material parts in such heat-transfer devices have both (1) the relatively high thermal conductances needed for efficient transfer of heat and (2) the flexibility needed to accommodate differences among thermal expansions of dissimilar materials in operation over wide temperature ranges. Techniques used previously to join metal tubes with carbon-fiber-based composite parts have included press fitting and bonding with epoxy. Both of these prior techniques have been found to yield joints characterized by relatively high thermal resistances. The present method involves the use of a solder (63 percent Sn, 37 percent Pb) to form a highly thermally conductive joint between a metal tube and a carbon-fiber-based composite structure. Ordinarily, the large differences among the coefficients of thermal expansion of the metal tube, solder, and carbon-fiber-based composite would cause the solder to pull away from the composite upon post-fabrication cooldown from the molten state. In the present method, the structure of the solder is modified (see figure) to enable it to deform readily to accommodate the differential thermal expansion.

  19. Improving experimental phases for strong reflections prior to density modification

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Uervirojnangkoorn, Monarin; Hilgenfeld, Rolf; Terwilliger, Thomas C.

    Experimental phasing of diffraction data from macromolecular crystals involves deriving phase probability distributions. These distributions are often bimodal, making their weighted average, the centroid phase, improbable, so that electron-density maps computed using centroid phases are often non-interpretable. Density modification brings in information about the characteristics of electron density in protein crystals. In successful cases, this allows a choice between the modes in the phase probability distributions, and the maps can cross the borderline between non-interpretable and interpretable. Based on the suggestions by Vekhter [Vekhter (2005), Acta Cryst. D 61, 899–902], the impact of identifying optimized phases for a small numbermore » of strong reflections prior to the density-modification process was investigated while using the centroid phase as a starting point for the remaining reflections. A genetic algorithm was developed that optimizes the quality of such phases using the skewness of the density map as a target function. Phases optimized in this way are then used in density modification. In most of the tests, the resulting maps were of higher quality than maps generated from the original centroid phases. In one of the test cases, the new method sufficiently improved a marginal set of experimental SAD phases to enable successful map interpretation. Lastly, a computer program, SISA, has been developed to apply this method for phase improvement in macromolecular crystallography.« less

  20. Improving experimental phases for strong reflections prior to density modification

    DOE PAGES

    Uervirojnangkoorn, Monarin; Hilgenfeld, Rolf; Terwilliger, Thomas C.; ...

    2013-09-20

    Experimental phasing of diffraction data from macromolecular crystals involves deriving phase probability distributions. These distributions are often bimodal, making their weighted average, the centroid phase, improbable, so that electron-density maps computed using centroid phases are often non-interpretable. Density modification brings in information about the characteristics of electron density in protein crystals. In successful cases, this allows a choice between the modes in the phase probability distributions, and the maps can cross the borderline between non-interpretable and interpretable. Based on the suggestions by Vekhter [Vekhter (2005), Acta Cryst. D 61, 899–902], the impact of identifying optimized phases for a small numbermore » of strong reflections prior to the density-modification process was investigated while using the centroid phase as a starting point for the remaining reflections. A genetic algorithm was developed that optimizes the quality of such phases using the skewness of the density map as a target function. Phases optimized in this way are then used in density modification. In most of the tests, the resulting maps were of higher quality than maps generated from the original centroid phases. In one of the test cases, the new method sufficiently improved a marginal set of experimental SAD phases to enable successful map interpretation. Lastly, a computer program, SISA, has been developed to apply this method for phase improvement in macromolecular crystallography.« less