The relationship between species detection probability and local extinction probability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alpizar-Jara, R.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Sauer, J.R.; Pollock, K.H.; Rosenberry, C.S.

2004-01-01

In community-level ecological studies, generally not all species present in sampled areas are detected. Many authors have proposed the use of estimation methods that allow detection probabilities that are < 1 and that are heterogeneous among species. These methods can also be used to estimate community-dynamic parameters such as species local extinction probability and turnover rates (Nichols et al. Ecol Appl 8:1213-1225; Conserv Biol 12:1390-1398). Here, we present an ad hoc approach to estimating community-level vital rates in the presence of joint heterogeneity of detection probabilities and vital rates. The method consists of partitioning the number of species into two groups using the detection frequencies and then estimating vital rates (e.g., local extinction probabilities) for each group. Estimators from each group are combined in a weighted estimator of vital rates that accounts for the effect of heterogeneity. Using data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey, we computed such estimates and tested the hypothesis that detection probabilities and local extinction probabilities were negatively related. Our analyses support the hypothesis that species detection probability covaries negatively with local probability of extinction and turnover rates. A simulation study was conducted to assess the performance of vital parameter estimators as well as other estimators relevant to questions about heterogeneity, such as coefficient of variation of detection probabilities and proportion of species in each group. Both the weighted estimator suggested in this paper and the original unweighted estimator for local extinction probability performed fairly well and provided no basis for preferring one to the other.

Copula Models for Sociology: Measures of Dependence and Probabilities for Joint Distributions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vuolo, Mike

2017-01-01

Often in sociology, researchers are confronted with nonnormal variables whose joint distribution they wish to explore. Yet, assumptions of common measures of dependence can fail or estimating such dependence is computationally intensive. This article presents the copula method for modeling the joint distribution of two random variables, including…

Imprecise Probability Methods for Weapons UQ

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Picard, Richard Roy; Vander Wiel, Scott Alan

Building on recent work in uncertainty quanti cation, we examine the use of imprecise probability methods to better characterize expert knowledge and to improve on misleading aspects of Bayesian analysis with informative prior distributions. Quantitative approaches to incorporate uncertainties in weapons certi cation are subject to rigorous external peer review, and in this regard, certain imprecise probability methods are well established in the literature and attractive. These methods are illustrated using experimental data from LANL detonator impact testing.

Joint probability of statistical success of multiple phase III trials.

PubMed

Zhang, Jianliang; Zhang, Jenny J

2013-01-01

In drug development, after completion of phase II proof-of-concept trials, the sponsor needs to make a go/no-go decision to start expensive phase III trials. The probability of statistical success (PoSS) of the phase III trials based on data from earlier studies is an important factor in that decision-making process. Instead of statistical power, the predictive power of a phase III trial, which takes into account the uncertainty in the estimation of treatment effect from earlier studies, has been proposed to evaluate the PoSS of a single trial. However, regulatory authorities generally require statistical significance in two (or more) trials for marketing licensure. We show that the predictive statistics of two future trials are statistically correlated through use of the common observed data from earlier studies. Thus, the joint predictive power should not be evaluated as a simplistic product of the predictive powers of the individual trials. We develop the relevant formulae for the appropriate evaluation of the joint predictive power and provide numerical examples. Our methodology is further extended to the more complex phase III development scenario comprising more than two (K > 2) trials, that is, the evaluation of the PoSS of at least k₀ (k₀≤ K) trials from a program of K total trials. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Method of forming a joint

DOEpatents

Butt, Darryl Paul; Cutler, Raymond Ashton; Rynders, Steven Walton; Carolan, Michael Francis

2006-08-22

A method of joining at least two sintered bodies to form a composite structure, including providing a first multicomponent metallic oxide having a perovskitic or fluorite crystal structure; providing a second sintered body including a second multicomponent metallic oxide having a crystal structure of the same type as the first; and providing at an interface a joint material containing at least one metal oxide containing at least one metal identically contained in at least one of the first and second multicomponent metallic oxides. The joint material is free of cations of Si, Ge, Sn, Pb, P and Te and has a melting point below the sintering temperatures of both sintered bodies. The joint material is heated to a temperature above the melting point of the metal oxide(s) and below the sintering temperatures of the sintered bodies to form the joint. Structures containing such joints are also disclosed.

Experimental investigation of the intensity fluctuation joint probability and conditional distributions of the twin-beam quantum state.

PubMed

Zhang, Yun; Kasai, Katsuyuki; Watanabe, Masayoshi

2003-01-13

We give the intensity fluctuation joint probability of the twin-beam quantum state, which was generated with an optical parametric oscillator operating above threshold. Then we present what to our knowledge is the first measurement of the intensity fluctuation conditional probability distributions of twin beams. The measured inference variance of twin beams 0.62+/-0.02, which is less than the standard quantum limit of unity, indicates inference with a precision better than that of separable states. The measured photocurrent variance exhibits a quantum correlation of as much as -4.9+/-0.2 dB between the signal and the idler.

Monte Carlo methods to calculate impact probabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rickman, H.; Wiśniowski, T.; Wajer, P.; Gabryszewski, R.; Valsecchi, G. B.

2014-09-01

Context. Unraveling the events that took place in the solar system during the period known as the late heavy bombardment requires the interpretation of the cratered surfaces of the Moon and terrestrial planets. This, in turn, requires good estimates of the statistical impact probabilities for different source populations of projectiles, a subject that has received relatively little attention, since the works of Öpik (1951, Proc. R. Irish Acad. Sect. A, 54, 165) and Wetherill (1967, J. Geophys. Res., 72, 2429). Aims: We aim to work around the limitations of the Öpik and Wetherill formulae, which are caused by singularities due to zero denominators under special circumstances. Using modern computers, it is possible to make good estimates of impact probabilities by means of Monte Carlo simulations, and in this work, we explore the available options. Methods: We describe three basic methods to derive the average impact probability for a projectile with a given semi-major axis, eccentricity, and inclination with respect to a target planet on an elliptic orbit. One is a numerical averaging of the Wetherill formula; the next is a Monte Carlo super-sizing method using the target's Hill sphere. The third uses extensive minimum orbit intersection distance (MOID) calculations for a Monte Carlo sampling of potentially impacting orbits, along with calculations of the relevant interval for the timing of the encounter allowing collision. Numerical experiments are carried out for an intercomparison of the methods and to scrutinize their behavior near the singularities (zero relative inclination and equal perihelion distances). Results: We find an excellent agreement between all methods in the general case, while there appear large differences in the immediate vicinity of the singularities. With respect to the MOID method, which is the only one that does not involve simplifying assumptions and approximations, the Wetherill averaging impact probability departs by diverging toward

Joint-layer encoder optimization for HEVC scalable extensions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, Chia-Ming; He, Yuwen; Dong, Jie; Ye, Yan; Xiu, Xiaoyu; He, Yong

2014-09-01

Scalable video coding provides an efficient solution to support video playback on heterogeneous devices with various channel conditions in heterogeneous networks. SHVC is the latest scalable video coding standard based on the HEVC standard. To improve enhancement layer coding efficiency, inter-layer prediction including texture and motion information generated from the base layer is used for enhancement layer coding. However, the overall performance of the SHVC reference encoder is not fully optimized because rate-distortion optimization (RDO) processes in the base and enhancement layers are independently considered. It is difficult to directly extend the existing joint-layer optimization methods to SHVC due to the complicated coding tree block splitting decisions and in-loop filtering process (e.g., deblocking and sample adaptive offset (SAO) filtering) in HEVC. To solve those problems, a joint-layer optimization method is proposed by adjusting the quantization parameter (QP) to optimally allocate the bit resource between layers. Furthermore, to make more proper resource allocation, the proposed method also considers the viewing probability of base and enhancement layers according to packet loss rate. Based on the viewing probability, a novel joint-layer RD cost function is proposed for joint-layer RDO encoding. The QP values of those coding tree units (CTUs) belonging to lower layers referenced by higher layers are decreased accordingly, and the QP values of those remaining CTUs are increased to keep total bits unchanged. Finally the QP values with minimal joint-layer RD cost are selected to match the viewing probability. The proposed method was applied to the third temporal level (TL-3) pictures in the Random Access configuration. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed joint-layer optimization method can improve coding performance by 1.3% for these TL-3 pictures compared to the SHVC reference encoder without joint-layer optimization.

Color object detection using spatial-color joint probability functions.

PubMed

Luo, Jiebo; Crandall, David

2006-06-01

Object detection in unconstrained images is an important image understanding problem with many potential applications. There has been little success in creating a single algorithm that can detect arbitrary objects in unconstrained images; instead, algorithms typically must be customized for each specific object. Consequently, it typically requires a large number of exemplars (for rigid objects) or a large amount of human intuition (for nonrigid objects) to develop a robust algorithm. We present a robust algorithm designed to detect a class of compound color objects given a single model image. A compound color object is defined as having a set of multiple, particular colors arranged spatially in a particular way, including flags, logos, cartoon characters, people in uniforms, etc. Our approach is based on a particular type of spatial-color joint probability function called the color edge co-occurrence histogram. In addition, our algorithm employs perceptual color naming to handle color variation, and prescreening to limit the search scope (i.e., size and location) for the object. Experimental results demonstrated that the proposed algorithm is insensitive to object rotation, scaling, partial occlusion, and folding, outperforming a closely related algorithm based on color co-occurrence histograms by a decisive margin.

Probability distributions for multimeric systems.

PubMed

Albert, Jaroslav; Rooman, Marianne

2016-01-01

We propose a fast and accurate method of obtaining the equilibrium mono-modal joint probability distributions for multimeric systems. The method necessitates only two assumptions: the copy number of all species of molecule may be treated as continuous; and, the probability density functions (pdf) are well-approximated by multivariate skew normal distributions (MSND). Starting from the master equation, we convert the problem into a set of equations for the statistical moments which are then expressed in terms of the parameters intrinsic to the MSND. Using an optimization package on Mathematica, we minimize a Euclidian distance function comprising of a sum of the squared difference between the left and the right hand sides of these equations. Comparison of results obtained via our method with those rendered by the Gillespie algorithm demonstrates our method to be highly accurate as well as efficient.

A Modelling Method of Bolt Joints Based on Basic Characteristic Parameters of Joint Surfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuansheng, Li; Guangpeng, Zhang; Zhen, Zhang; Ping, Wang

2018-02-01

Bolt joints are common in machine tools and have a direct impact on the overall performance of the tools. Therefore, the understanding of bolt joint characteristics is essential for improving machine design and assembly. Firstly, According to the experimental data obtained from the experiment, the stiffness curve formula was fitted. Secondly, a finite element model of unit bolt joints such as bolt flange joints, bolt head joints, and thread joints was constructed, and lastly the stiffness parameters of joint surfaces were implemented in the model by the secondary development of ABAQUS. The finite element model of the bolt joint established by this method can simulate the contact state very well.

Technology-enhanced Interactive Teaching of Marginal, Joint and Conditional Probabilities: The Special Case of Bivariate Normal Distribution

PubMed Central

Dinov, Ivo D.; Kamino, Scott; Bhakhrani, Bilal; Christou, Nicolas

2014-01-01

Summary Data analysis requires subtle probability reasoning to answer questions like What is the chance of event A occurring, given that event B was observed? This generic question arises in discussions of many intriguing scientific questions such as What is the probability that an adolescent weighs between 120 and 140 pounds given that they are of average height? and What is the probability of (monetary) inflation exceeding 4% and housing price index below 110? To address such problems, learning some applied, theoretical or cross-disciplinary probability concepts is necessary. Teaching such courses can be improved by utilizing modern information technology resources. Students’ understanding of multivariate distributions, conditional probabilities, correlation and causation can be significantly strengthened by employing interactive web-based science educational resources. Independent of the type of a probability course (e.g. majors, minors or service probability course, rigorous measure-theoretic, applied or statistics course) student motivation, learning experiences and knowledge retention may be enhanced by blending modern technological tools within the classical conceptual pedagogical models. We have designed, implemented and disseminated a portable open-source web-application for teaching multivariate distributions, marginal, joint and conditional probabilities using the special case of bivariate Normal distribution. A real adolescent height and weight dataset is used to demonstrate the classroom utilization of the new web-application to address problems of parameter estimation, univariate and multivariate inference. PMID:25419016

Technology-enhanced Interactive Teaching of Marginal, Joint and Conditional Probabilities: The Special Case of Bivariate Normal Distribution.

PubMed

Dinov, Ivo D; Kamino, Scott; Bhakhrani, Bilal; Christou, Nicolas

2013-01-01

Data analysis requires subtle probability reasoning to answer questions like What is the chance of event A occurring, given that event B was observed? This generic question arises in discussions of many intriguing scientific questions such as What is the probability that an adolescent weighs between 120 and 140 pounds given that they are of average height? and What is the probability of (monetary) inflation exceeding 4% and housing price index below 110? To address such problems, learning some applied, theoretical or cross-disciplinary probability concepts is necessary. Teaching such courses can be improved by utilizing modern information technology resources. Students' understanding of multivariate distributions, conditional probabilities, correlation and causation can be significantly strengthened by employing interactive web-based science educational resources. Independent of the type of a probability course (e.g. majors, minors or service probability course, rigorous measure-theoretic, applied or statistics course) student motivation, learning experiences and knowledge retention may be enhanced by blending modern technological tools within the classical conceptual pedagogical models. We have designed, implemented and disseminated a portable open-source web-application for teaching multivariate distributions, marginal, joint and conditional probabilities using the special case of bivariate Normal distribution. A real adolescent height and weight dataset is used to demonstrate the classroom utilization of the new web-application to address problems of parameter estimation, univariate and multivariate inference.

[Comparison of two algorithms for development of design space-overlapping method and probability-based method].

PubMed

Shao, Jing-Yuan; Qu, Hai-Bin; Gong, Xing-Chu

2018-05-01

In this work, two algorithms (overlapping method and the probability-based method) for design space calculation were compared by using the data collected from extraction process of Codonopsis Radix as an example. In the probability-based method, experimental error was simulated to calculate the probability of reaching the standard. The effects of several parameters on the calculated design space were studied, including simulation number, step length, and the acceptable probability threshold. For the extraction process of Codonopsis Radix, 10 000 times of simulation and 0.02 for the calculation step length can lead to a satisfactory design space. In general, the overlapping method is easy to understand, and can be realized by several kinds of commercial software without coding programs, but the reliability of the process evaluation indexes when operating in the design space is not indicated. Probability-based method is complex in calculation, but can provide the reliability to ensure that the process indexes can reach the standard within the acceptable probability threshold. In addition, there is no probability mutation in the edge of design space by probability-based method. Therefore, probability-based method is recommended for design space calculation. Copyright© by the Chinese Pharmaceutical Association.

Recent progress in the joint velocity-scalar PDF method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anand, M. S.

1995-01-01

This viewgraph presentation discusses joint velocity-scalar PDF method; turbulent combustion modeling issues for gas turbine combustors; PDF calculations for a recirculating flow; stochastic dissipation model; joint PDF calculations for swirling flows; spray calculations; reduced kinetics/manifold methods; parallel processing; and joint PDF focus areas.

Optimized Vertex Method and Hybrid Reliability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Steven A.; Krishnamurthy, T.; Mason, B. H.

2002-01-01

A method of calculating the fuzzy response of a system is presented. This method, called the Optimized Vertex Method (OVM), is based upon the vertex method but requires considerably fewer function evaluations. The method is demonstrated by calculating the response membership function of strain-energy release rate for a bonded joint with a crack. The possibility of failure of the bonded joint was determined over a range of loads. After completing the possibilistic analysis, the possibilistic (fuzzy) membership functions were transformed to probability density functions and the probability of failure of the bonded joint was calculated. This approach is called a possibility-based hybrid reliability assessment. The possibility and probability of failure are presented and compared to a Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) of the bonded joint.

Intervals for posttest probabilities: a comparison of 5 methods.

PubMed

Mossman, D; Berger, J O

2001-01-01

Several medical articles discuss methods of constructing confidence intervals for single proportions and the likelihood ratio, but scant attention has been given to the systematic study of intervals for the posterior odds, or the positive predictive value, of a test. The authors describe 5 methods of constructing confidence intervals for posttest probabilities when estimates of sensitivity, specificity, and the pretest probability of a disorder are derived from empirical data. They then evaluate each method to determine how well the intervals' coverage properties correspond to their nominal value. When the estimates of pretest probabilities, sensitivity, and specificity are derived from more than 80 subjects and are not close to 0 or 1, all methods generate intervals with appropriate coverage properties. When these conditions are not met, however, the best-performing method is an objective Bayesian approach implemented by a simple simulation using a spreadsheet. Physicians and investigators can generate accurate confidence intervals for posttest probabilities in small-sample situations using the objective Bayesian approach.

Evaluation of joint probability density function models for turbulent nonpremixed combustion with complex chemistry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, N. S. A.; Frolov, S. M.; Bowman, C. T.

1996-01-01

Two types of mixing sub-models are evaluated in connection with a joint-scalar probability density function method for turbulent nonpremixed combustion. Model calculations are made and compared to simulation results for homogeneously distributed methane-air reaction zones mixing and reacting in decaying turbulence within a two-dimensional enclosed domain. The comparison is arranged to ensure that both the simulation and model calculations a) make use of exactly the same chemical mechanism, b) do not involve non-unity Lewis number transport of species, and c) are free from radiation loss. The modified Curl mixing sub-model was found to provide superior predictive accuracy over the simple relaxation-to-mean submodel in the case studied. Accuracy to within 10-20% was found for global means of major species and temperature; however, nitric oxide prediction accuracy was lower and highly dependent on the choice of mixing sub-model. Both mixing submodels were found to produce non-physical mixing behavior for mixture fractions removed from the immediate reaction zone. A suggestion for a further modified Curl mixing sub-model is made in connection with earlier work done in the field.

Subplane collision probabilities method applied to control rod cusping in 2D/1D

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Graham, Aaron M.; Collins, Benjamin S.; Stimpson, Shane G.

The MPACT code is being jointly developed by the University of Michigan and Oak Ridge National Laboratory. It uses the 2D/1D method to solve neutron transport problems for reactors. The 2D/1D method decomposes the problem into a stack of 2D planes, and uses a high fidelity transport method to resolve all heterogeneity in each plane. These planes are then coupled axially using a lower order solver. Using this scheme, 3D solutions to the transport equation can be obtained at a much lower cost.One assumption made by the 2D/1D method is that the materials are axially homogeneous for each 2D plane.more » Violation of this assumption requires homogenization, which can significantly reduce the accuracy of the calculation. This paper presents two new subgrid methods to address this issue. The first method is polynomial decusping, a simple correction used to address control rods partially inserted into a 2D plane. The second is the subplane collision probabilities method, which is a more accurate, more robust subgrid method that can be applied to other axial heterogeneities.Each method was applied to a variety of problems. Results were compared to fine mesh solutions which had no axial heterogeneity and to Monte Carlo reference solutions generated using KENO-VI. It was shown that the polynomial decusping method was effective in many cases, but it had some limitations, with 3D pin power errors as high as 25% compared to KENO-VI. In conclusion, the subplane collision probabilities method performed much better, lowering the maximum pin power error to less than 5% in every calculation.« less

Subplane collision probabilities method applied to control rod cusping in 2D/1D

DOE PAGES

Graham, Aaron M.; Collins, Benjamin S.; Stimpson, Shane G.; ...

2018-04-06

The MPACT code is being jointly developed by the University of Michigan and Oak Ridge National Laboratory. It uses the 2D/1D method to solve neutron transport problems for reactors. The 2D/1D method decomposes the problem into a stack of 2D planes, and uses a high fidelity transport method to resolve all heterogeneity in each plane. These planes are then coupled axially using a lower order solver. Using this scheme, 3D solutions to the transport equation can be obtained at a much lower cost.One assumption made by the 2D/1D method is that the materials are axially homogeneous for each 2D plane.more » Violation of this assumption requires homogenization, which can significantly reduce the accuracy of the calculation. This paper presents two new subgrid methods to address this issue. The first method is polynomial decusping, a simple correction used to address control rods partially inserted into a 2D plane. The second is the subplane collision probabilities method, which is a more accurate, more robust subgrid method that can be applied to other axial heterogeneities.Each method was applied to a variety of problems. Results were compared to fine mesh solutions which had no axial heterogeneity and to Monte Carlo reference solutions generated using KENO-VI. It was shown that the polynomial decusping method was effective in many cases, but it had some limitations, with 3D pin power errors as high as 25% compared to KENO-VI. In conclusion, the subplane collision probabilities method performed much better, lowering the maximum pin power error to less than 5% in every calculation.« less

Method of forming a ceramic to ceramic joint

DOEpatents

Cutler, Raymond Ashton; Hutchings, Kent Neal; Kleinlein, Brian Paul; Carolan, Michael Francis

2010-04-13

A method of joining at least two sintered bodies to form a composite structure, includes: providing a joint material between joining surfaces of first and second sintered bodies; applying pressure from 1 kP to less than 5 MPa to provide an assembly; heating the assembly to a conforming temperature sufficient to allow the joint material to conform to the joining surfaces; and further heating the assembly to a joining temperature below a minimum sintering temperature of the first and second sintered bodies. The joint material includes organic component(s) and ceramic particles. The ceramic particles constitute 40-75 vol. % of the joint material, and include at least one element of the first and/or second sintered bodies. Composite structures produced by the method are also disclosed.

Space Suit Joint Torque Measurement Method Validation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Valish, Dana; Eversley, Karina

2012-01-01

In 2009 and early 2010, a test method was developed and performed to quantify the torque required to manipulate joints in several existing operational and prototype space suits. This was done in an effort to develop joint torque requirements appropriate for a new Constellation Program space suit system. The same test method was levied on the Constellation space suit contractors to verify that their suit design met the requirements. However, because the original test was set up and conducted by a single test operator there was some question as to whether this method was repeatable enough to be considered a standard verification method for Constellation or other future development programs. In order to validate the method itself, a representative subset of the previous test was repeated, using the same information that would be available to space suit contractors, but set up and conducted by someone not familiar with the previous test. The resultant data was compared using graphical and statistical analysis; the results indicated a significant variance in values reported for a subset of the re-tested joints. Potential variables that could have affected the data were identified and a third round of testing was conducted in an attempt to eliminate and/or quantify the effects of these variables. The results of the third test effort will be used to determine whether or not the proposed joint torque methodology can be applied to future space suit development contracts.

A joint probability approach for coincidental flood frequency analysis at ungauged basin confluences

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Cheng

2016-03-12

A reliable and accurate flood frequency analysis at the confluence of streams is of importance. Given that long-term peak flow observations are often unavailable at tributary confluences, at a practical level, this paper presents a joint probability approach (JPA) to address the coincidental flood frequency analysis at the ungauged confluence of two streams based on the flow rate data from the upstream tributaries. One case study is performed for comparison against several traditional approaches, including the position-plotting formula, the univariate flood frequency analysis, and the National Flood Frequency Program developed by US Geological Survey. It shows that the results generatedmore » by the JPA approach agree well with the floods estimated by the plotting position and univariate flood frequency analysis based on the observation data.« less

Probability Elicitation Under Severe Time Pressure: A Rank-Based Method.

PubMed

Jaspersen, Johannes G; Montibeller, Gilberto

2015-07-01

Probability elicitation protocols are used to assess and incorporate subjective probabilities in risk and decision analysis. While most of these protocols use methods that have focused on the precision of the elicited probabilities, the speed of the elicitation process has often been neglected. However, speed is also important, particularly when experts need to examine a large number of events on a recurrent basis. Furthermore, most existing elicitation methods are numerical in nature, but there are various reasons why an expert would refuse to give such precise ratio-scale estimates, even if highly numerate. This may occur, for instance, when there is lack of sufficient hard evidence, when assessing very uncertain events (such as emergent threats), or when dealing with politicized topics (such as terrorism or disease outbreaks). In this article, we adopt an ordinal ranking approach from multicriteria decision analysis to provide a fast and nonnumerical probability elicitation process. Probabilities are subsequently approximated from the ranking by an algorithm based on the principle of maximum entropy, a rule compatible with the ordinal information provided by the expert. The method can elicit probabilities for a wide range of different event types, including new ways of eliciting probabilities for stochastically independent events and low-probability events. We use a Monte Carlo simulation to test the accuracy of the approximated probabilities and try the method in practice, applying it to a real-world risk analysis recently conducted for DEFRA (the U.K. Department for the Environment, Farming and Rural Affairs): the prioritization of animal health threats. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Effect of joint spacing and joint dip on the stress distribution around tunnels using different numerical methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nikadat, Nooraddin; Fatehi Marji, Mohammad; Rahmannejad, Reza; Yarahmadi Bafghi, Alireza

2016-11-01

Different conditions may affect the stability of tunnels by the geometry (spacing and orientation) of joints in the surrounded rock mass. In this study, by comparing the results obtained by the three novel numerical methods i.e. finite element method (Phase2), discrete element method (UDEC) and indirect boundary element method (TFSDDM), the effects of joint spacing and joint dips on the stress distribution around rock tunnels are numerically studied. These comparisons indicate the validity of the stress analyses around circular rock tunnels. These analyses also reveal that for a semi-continuous environment, boundary element method gives more accurate results compared to the results of finite element and distinct element methods. In the indirect boundary element method, the displacements due to joints of different spacing and dips are estimated by using displacement discontinuity (DD) formulations and the total stress distribution around the tunnel are obtained by using fictitious stress (FS) formulations.

Why does Japan use the probability method to set design flood?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakamura, S.; Oki, T.

2015-12-01

Design flood is hypothetical flood to make flood prevention plan. In Japan, a probability method based on precipitation data is used to define the scale of design flood: Tone River, the biggest river in Japan, is 1 in 200 years, Shinano River is 1 in 150 years, and so on. It is one of important socio-hydrological issue how to set reasonable and acceptable design flood in a changing world. The method to set design flood vary among countries. Although the probability method is also used in Netherland, but the base data is water level or discharge data and the probability is 1 in 1250 years (in fresh water section). On the other side, USA and China apply the maximum flood method which set the design flood based on the historical or probable maximum flood. This cases can leads a question: "what is the reason why the method vary among countries?" or "why does Japan use the probability method?" The purpose of this study is to clarify the historical process which the probability method was developed in Japan based on the literature. In the late 19the century, the concept of "discharge" and modern river engineering were imported by Dutch engineers, and modern flood prevention plans were developed in Japan. In these plans, the design floods were set based on the historical maximum method. Although the historical maximum method had been used until World War 2, however, the method was changed to the probability method after the war because of limitations of historical maximum method under the specific socio-economic situations: (1) the budget limitation due to the war and the GHQ occupation, (2) the historical floods: Makurazaki typhoon in 1945, Kathleen typhoon in 1947, Ione typhoon in 1948, and so on, attacked Japan and broke the record of historical maximum discharge in main rivers and the flood disasters made the flood prevention projects difficult to complete. Then, Japanese hydrologists imported the hydrological probability statistics from the West to take account of

A nondestructive, reproducible method of measuring joint reaction force at the distal radioulnar joint.

PubMed

Canham, Colin D; Schreck, Michael J; Maqsoodi, Noorullah; Doolittle, Madison; Olles, Mark; Elfar, John C

2015-06-01

To develop a nondestructive method of measuring distal radioulnar joint (DRUJ) joint reaction force (JRF) that preserves all periarticular soft tissues and more accurately reflects in vivo conditions. Eight fresh-frozen human cadaveric limbs were obtained. A threaded Steinmann pin was placed in the middle of the lateral side of the distal radius transverse to the DRUJ. A second pin was placed into the middle of the medial side of the distal ulna colinear to the distal radial pin. Specimens were mounted onto a tensile testing machine using a custom fixture. A uniaxial distracting force was applied across the DRUJ while force and displacement were simultaneously measured. Force-displacement curves were generated and a best-fit polynomial was solved to determine JRF. All force-displacement curves demonstrated an initial high slope where relatively large forces were required to distract the joint. This ended with an inflection point followed by a linear area with a low slope, where small increases in force generated larger amounts of distraction. Each sample was measured 3 times and there was high reproducibility between repeated measurements. The average baseline DRUJ JRF was 7.5 N (n = 8). This study describes a reproducible method of measuring DRUJ reaction forces that preserves all periarticular stabilizing structures. This technique of JRF measurement may also be suited for applications in the small joints of the wrist and hand. Changes in JRF can alter native joint mechanics and lead to pathology. Reliable methods of measuring these forces are important for determining how pathology and surgical interventions affect joint biomechanics. Copyright © 2015 American Society for Surgery of the Hand. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Periprosthetic Joint Infections: Clinical and Bench Research

PubMed Central

Legout, Laurence; Senneville, Eric

2013-01-01

Prosthetic joint infection is a devastating complication with high morbidity and substantial cost. The incidence is low but probably underestimated. Despite a significant basic and clinical research in this field, many questions concerning the definition of prosthetic infection as well the diagnosis and the management of these infections remained unanswered. We review the current literature about the new diagnostic methods, the management and the prevention of prosthetic joint infections. PMID:24288493

Dichotomous versus semi-quantitative scoring of ultrasound joint inflammation in rheumatoid arthritis using novel individualized joint selection methods.

PubMed

Tan, York Kiat; Allen, John C; Lye, Weng Kit; Conaghan, Philip G; Chew, Li-Ching; Thumboo, Julian

2017-05-01

The aim of the study is to compare the responsiveness of two joint inflammation scoring systems (dichotomous scoring (DS) versus semi-quantitative scoring (SQS)) using novel individualized ultrasound joint selection methods and existing ultrasound joint selection methods. Responsiveness measured by the standardized response means (SRMs) using the DS and the SQS system (for both the novel and existing ultrasound joint selection methods) was derived using the baseline and the 3-month total inflammatory scores from 20 rheumatoid arthritis patients. The relative SRM gain ratios (SRM-Gains) for both scoring system (DS and SQS) comparing the novel to the existing methods were computed. Both scoring systems (DS and SQS) demonstrated substantial SRM-Gains (ranged from 3.31 to 5.67 for the DS system and ranged from 1.82 to 3.26 for the SQS system). The SRMs using the novel methods ranged from 0.94 to 1.36 for the DS system and ranged from 0.89 to 1.11 for the SQS system. The SRMs using the existing methods ranged from 0.24 to 0.32 for the DS system and ranged from 0.34 to 0.49 for the SQS system. The DS system appears to achieve high responsiveness comparable to SQS for the novel individualized ultrasound joint selection methods.

Quantifying Hydroperiod, Fire and Nutrient Effects on the Composition of Plant Communities in Marl Prairie of the Everglades: a Joint Probability Method Based Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhai, L.

2017-12-01

Plant community can be simultaneously affected by human activities and climate changes, and quantifying and predicting this combined effect on plant community by appropriate model framework which is validated by field data is complex, but very useful to conservation management. Plant communities in the Everglades provide an unique set of conditions to develop and validate this model framework, because they are both experiencing intensive effects of human activities (such as changing hydroperiod by drainage and restoration projects, nutrients from upstream agriculture, prescribed fire, etc.) and climate changes (such as warming, changing precipitation patter, sea level rise, etc.). More importantly, previous research attention focuses on plant communities in slough ecosystem (including ridge, slough and their tree islands), very few studies consider the marl prairie ecosystem. Comparing with slough ecosystem featured by remaining consistently flooded almost year-round, marl prairie has relatively shorter hydroperiod (just in wet-season of one year). Therefore, plant communities of marl prairie may receive more impacts from hydroperiod change. In addition to hydroperiod, fire and nutrients also affect the plant communities in the marl prairie. Therefore, to quantify the combined effects of water level, fire, and nutrients on the composition of the plant communities, we are developing a joint probability method based vegetation dynamic model. Further, the model is being validated by field data about changes of vegetation assemblage along environmental gradients in the marl prairie. Our poster showed preliminary data from our current project.

The Efficacy of Using Diagrams When Solving Probability Word Problems in College

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beitzel, Brian D.; Staley, Richard K.

2015-01-01

Previous experiments have shown a deleterious effect of visual representations on college students' ability to solve total- and joint-probability word problems. The present experiments used conditional-probability problems, known to be more difficult than total- and joint-probability problems. The diagram group was instructed in how to use tree…

Methods for fitting a parametric probability distribution to most probable number data.

PubMed

Williams, Michael S; Ebel, Eric D

2012-07-02

Every year hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of samples are collected and analyzed to assess microbial contamination in food and water. The concentration of pathogenic organisms at the end of the production process is low for most commodities, so a highly sensitive screening test is used to determine whether the organism of interest is present in a sample. In some applications, samples that test positive are subjected to quantitation. The most probable number (MPN) technique is a common method to quantify the level of contamination in a sample because it is able to provide estimates at low concentrations. This technique uses a series of dilution count experiments to derive estimates of the concentration of the microorganism of interest. An application for these data is food-safety risk assessment, where the MPN concentration estimates can be fitted to a parametric distribution to summarize the range of potential exposures to the contaminant. Many different methods (e.g., substitution methods, maximum likelihood and regression on order statistics) have been proposed to fit microbial contamination data to a distribution, but the development of these methods rarely considers how the MPN technique influences the choice of distribution function and fitting method. An often overlooked aspect when applying these methods is whether the data represent actual measurements of the average concentration of microorganism per milliliter or the data are real-valued estimates of the average concentration, as is the case with MPN data. In this study, we propose two methods for fitting MPN data to a probability distribution. The first method uses a maximum likelihood estimator that takes average concentration values as the data inputs. The second is a Bayesian latent variable method that uses the counts of the number of positive tubes at each dilution to estimate the parameters of the contamination distribution. The performance of the two fitting methods is compared for two

A Method of Strengthening Composite/Metal Joints

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Polis, Daniel L.

2011-01-01

The term tape setback method denotes a method of designing and fabricating bonded joints between (1) box beams or other structural members made of laminated composite (matrix/ fiber) materials and (2) metal end fittings used to fasten these structural members to other structural members. The basic idea of the tape setback method is to mask the bonded interface between the metallic end fitting and composite member such that the bond does not extend out to the free edges of the composite member. The purpose served by the tape setback method is to strengthen the joints by decoupling stress concentrations from edge defects, which can cause premature failures. A related prior method that serves a similar purpose, involving the use of tapered adherends at the joints, can be too difficult and costly to be acceptable in some applications. The tape setback method offers an easier, less costly alternative. The structural members to which the method was originally applied were box beams in the form of composite tubes having flat faces with rounded corners. The end fittings were plugs made of a low-thermal- expansion nickel/iron alloy (see figure). In computational-simulation studies of tensile and compressive loading of members without tape setback, stresses were found to be concentrated at the free end edges of the composite tubes, and inspection of members that had been subjected to real tension and compression tests showed that cracks started at the free end edges. As applied to these members, the tape setback method makes them less vulnerable to initiation of failure at edge defects produced during fabrication. In real tension tests of comparable members without and with tape setback, the average mean tensile strength of the members with tape setback was found to be 1.9 times that of the members without tape setback.

Independent events in elementary probability theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Csenki, Attila

2011-07-01

In Probability and Statistics taught to mathematicians as a first introduction or to a non-mathematical audience, joint independence of events is introduced by requiring that the multiplication rule is satisfied. The following statement is usually tacitly assumed to hold (and, at best, intuitively motivated): If the n events E 1, E 2, … , E n are jointly independent then any two events A and B built in finitely many steps from two disjoint subsets of E 1, E 2, … , E n are also independent. The operations 'union', 'intersection' and 'complementation' are permitted only when forming the events A and B. Here we examine this statement from the point of view of elementary probability theory. The approach described here is accessible also to users of probability theory and is believed to be novel.

A Single-Lap Joint Adhesive Bonding Optimization Method Using Gradient and Genetic Algorithms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smeltzer, Stanley S., III; Finckenor, Jeffrey L.

1999-01-01

A natural process for any engineer, scientist, educator, etc. is to seek the most efficient method for accomplishing a given task. In the case of structural design, an area that has a significant impact on the structural efficiency is joint design. Unless the structure is machined from a solid block of material, the individual components which compose the overall structure must be joined together. The method for joining a structure varies depending on the applied loads, material, assembly and disassembly requirements, service life, environment, etc. Using both metallic and fiber reinforced plastic materials limits the user to two methods or a combination of these methods for joining the components into one structure. The first is mechanical fastening and the second is adhesive bonding. Mechanical fastening is by far the most popular joining technique; however, in terms of structural efficiency, adhesive bonding provides a superior joint since the load is distributed uniformly across the joint. The purpose of this paper is to develop a method for optimizing single-lap joint adhesive bonded structures using both gradient and genetic algorithms and comparing the solution process for each method. The goal of the single-lap joint optimization is to find the most efficient structure that meets the imposed requirements while still remaining as lightweight, economical, and reliable as possible. For the single-lap joint, an optimum joint is determined by minimizing the weight of the overall joint based on constraints from adhesive strengths as well as empirically derived rules. The analytical solution of the sin-le-lap joint is determined using the classical Goland-Reissner technique for case 2 type adhesive joints. Joint weight minimization is achieved using a commercially available routine, Design Optimization Tool (DOT), for the gradient solution while an author developed method is used for the genetic algorithm solution. Results illustrate the critical design variables

Height probabilities in the Abelian sandpile model on the generalized finite Bethe lattice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Haiyan; Zhang, Fuji

2013-08-01

In this paper, we study the sandpile model on the generalized finite Bethe lattice with a particular boundary condition. Using a combinatorial method, we give the exact expressions for all single-site probabilities and some two-site joint probabilities. As a by-product, we prove that the height probabilities of bulk vertices are all the same for the Bethe lattice with certain given boundary condition, which was found from numerical evidence by Grassberger and Manna ["Some more sandpiles," J. Phys. (France) 51, 1077-1098 (1990)], 10.1051/jphys:0199000510110107700 but without a proof.

Integrating Quantitative and Qualitative Results in Health Science Mixed Methods Research Through Joint Displays

PubMed Central

Guetterman, Timothy C.; Fetters, Michael D.; Creswell, John W.

2015-01-01

PURPOSE Mixed methods research is becoming an important methodology to investigate complex health-related topics, yet the meaningful integration of qualitative and quantitative data remains elusive and needs further development. A promising innovation to facilitate integration is the use of visual joint displays that bring data together visually to draw out new insights. The purpose of this study was to identify exemplar joint displays by analyzing the various types of joint displays being used in published articles. METHODS We searched for empirical articles that included joint displays in 3 journals that publish state-of-the-art mixed methods research. We analyzed each of 19 identified joint displays to extract the type of display, mixed methods design, purpose, rationale, qualitative and quantitative data sources, integration approaches, and analytic strategies. Our analysis focused on what each display communicated and its representation of mixed methods analysis. RESULTS The most prevalent types of joint displays were statistics-by-themes and side-by-side comparisons. Innovative joint displays connected findings to theoretical frameworks or recommendations. Researchers used joint displays for convergent, explanatory sequential, exploratory sequential, and intervention designs. We identified exemplars for each of these designs by analyzing the inferences gained through using the joint display. Exemplars represented mixed methods integration, presented integrated results, and yielded new insights. CONCLUSIONS Joint displays appear to provide a structure to discuss the integrated analysis and assist both researchers and readers in understanding how mixed methods provides new insights. We encourage researchers to use joint displays to integrate and represent mixed methods analysis and discuss their value. PMID:26553895

Probability estimation with machine learning methods for dichotomous and multicategory outcome: theory.

PubMed

Kruppa, Jochen; Liu, Yufeng; Biau, Gérard; Kohler, Michael; König, Inke R; Malley, James D; Ziegler, Andreas

2014-07-01

Probability estimation for binary and multicategory outcome using logistic and multinomial logistic regression has a long-standing tradition in biostatistics. However, biases may occur if the model is misspecified. In contrast, outcome probabilities for individuals can be estimated consistently with machine learning approaches, including k-nearest neighbors (k-NN), bagged nearest neighbors (b-NN), random forests (RF), and support vector machines (SVM). Because machine learning methods are rarely used by applied biostatisticians, the primary goal of this paper is to explain the concept of probability estimation with these methods and to summarize recent theoretical findings. Probability estimation in k-NN, b-NN, and RF can be embedded into the class of nonparametric regression learning machines; therefore, we start with the construction of nonparametric regression estimates and review results on consistency and rates of convergence. In SVMs, outcome probabilities for individuals are estimated consistently by repeatedly solving classification problems. For SVMs we review classification problem and then dichotomous probability estimation. Next we extend the algorithms for estimating probabilities using k-NN, b-NN, and RF to multicategory outcomes and discuss approaches for the multicategory probability estimation problem using SVM. In simulation studies for dichotomous and multicategory dependent variables we demonstrate the general validity of the machine learning methods and compare it with logistic regression. However, each method fails in at least one simulation scenario. We conclude with a discussion of the failures and give recommendations for selecting and tuning the methods. Applications to real data and example code are provided in a companion article (doi:10.1002/bimj.201300077). © 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Iron aluminide alloy coatings and joints, and methods of forming

DOEpatents

Wright, Richard N.; Wright, Julie K.; Moore, Glenn A.

1994-01-01

A method of joining two bodies together, at least one of the bodies being predominantly composed of metal, the two bodies each having a respective joint surface for joining with the joint surface of the other body, the two bodies having a respective melting point, includes the following steps: a) providing aluminum metal and iron metal on at least one of the joint surfaces of the two bodies; b) after providing the aluminum metal and iron metal on the one joint surface, positioning the joint surfaces of the two bodies in juxtaposition against one another with the aluminum and iron positioned therebetween; c) heating the aluminum and iron on the juxtaposed bodies to a temperature from greater than or equal to 600.degree. C. to less than the melting point of the lower melting point body; d) applying pressure on the juxtaposed surfaces; and e) maintaining the pressure and the temperature for a time period effective to form the aluminum and iron into an iron aluminide alloy joint which bonds the juxtaposed surfaces and correspondingly the two bodies together. The method can also effectively be used to coat a body with an iron aluminide coating.

Iron aluminide alloy coatings and joints, and methods of forming

DOEpatents

Wright, R.N.; Wright, J.K.; Moore, G.A.

1994-09-27

Disclosed is a method of joining two bodies together, at least one of the bodies being predominantly composed of metal, the two bodies each having a respective joint surface for joining with the joint surface of the other body, the two bodies having a respective melting point, includes the following steps: (a) providing aluminum metal and iron metal on at least one of the joint surfaces of the two bodies; (b) after providing the aluminum metal and iron metal on the one joint surface, positioning the joint surfaces of the two bodies in juxtaposition against one another with the aluminum and iron positioned therebetween; (c) heating the aluminum and iron on the juxtaposed bodies to a temperature from greater than or equal to 600 C to less than the melting point of the lower melting point body; (d) applying pressure on the juxtaposed surfaces; and (e) maintaining the pressure and the temperature for a time period effective to form the aluminum and iron into an iron aluminide alloy joint which bonds the juxtaposed surfaces and correspondingly the two bodies together. The method can also effectively be used to coat a body with an iron aluminide coating.

Ceramic joints

DOEpatents

Miller, Bradley J.; Patten, Jr., Donald O.

1991-01-01

Butt joints between materials having different coefficients of thermal expansion are prepared having a reduced probability of failure of stress facture. This is accomplished by narrowing/tapering the material having the lower coefficient of thermal expansion in a direction away from the joint interface and not joining the narrow-tapered surface to the material having the higher coefficient of thermal expansion.

Generalized Cross Entropy Method for estimating joint distribution from incomplete information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Hai-Yan; Kuo, Shyh-Hao; Li, Guoqi; Legara, Erika Fille T.; Zhao, Daxuan; Monterola, Christopher P.

2016-07-01

Obtaining a full joint distribution from individual marginal distributions with incomplete information is a non-trivial task that continues to challenge researchers from various domains including economics, demography, and statistics. In this work, we develop a new methodology referred to as ;Generalized Cross Entropy Method; (GCEM) that is aimed at addressing the issue. The objective function is proposed to be a weighted sum of divergences between joint distributions and various references. We show that the solution of the GCEM is unique and global optimal. Furthermore, we illustrate the applicability and validity of the method by utilizing it to recover the joint distribution of a household profile of a given administrative region. In particular, we estimate the joint distribution of the household size, household dwelling type, and household home ownership in Singapore. Results show a high-accuracy estimation of the full joint distribution of the household profile under study. Finally, the impact of constraints and weight on the estimation of joint distribution is explored.

Integrating Quantitative and Qualitative Results in Health Science Mixed Methods Research Through Joint Displays.

PubMed

Guetterman, Timothy C; Fetters, Michael D; Creswell, John W

2015-11-01

Mixed methods research is becoming an important methodology to investigate complex health-related topics, yet the meaningful integration of qualitative and quantitative data remains elusive and needs further development. A promising innovation to facilitate integration is the use of visual joint displays that bring data together visually to draw out new insights. The purpose of this study was to identify exemplar joint displays by analyzing the various types of joint displays being used in published articles. We searched for empirical articles that included joint displays in 3 journals that publish state-of-the-art mixed methods research. We analyzed each of 19 identified joint displays to extract the type of display, mixed methods design, purpose, rationale, qualitative and quantitative data sources, integration approaches, and analytic strategies. Our analysis focused on what each display communicated and its representation of mixed methods analysis. The most prevalent types of joint displays were statistics-by-themes and side-by-side comparisons. Innovative joint displays connected findings to theoretical frameworks or recommendations. Researchers used joint displays for convergent, explanatory sequential, exploratory sequential, and intervention designs. We identified exemplars for each of these designs by analyzing the inferences gained through using the joint display. Exemplars represented mixed methods integration, presented integrated results, and yielded new insights. Joint displays appear to provide a structure to discuss the integrated analysis and assist both researchers and readers in understanding how mixed methods provides new insights. We encourage researchers to use joint displays to integrate and represent mixed methods analysis and discuss their value. © 2015 Annals of Family Medicine, Inc.

Joint distribution of temperature and precipitation in the Mediterranean, using the Copula method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lazoglou, Georgia; Anagnostopoulou, Christina

2018-03-01

This study analyses the temperature and precipitation dependence among stations in the Mediterranean. The first station group is located in the eastern Mediterranean (EM) and includes two stations, Athens and Thessaloniki, while the western (WM) one includes Malaga and Barcelona. The data was organized in two time periods, the hot-dry period and the cold-wet one, composed of 5 months, respectively. The analysis is based on a new statistical technique in climatology: the Copula method. Firstly, the calculation of the Kendall tau correlation index showed that temperatures among stations are dependant during both time periods whereas precipitation presents dependency only between the stations located in EM or WM and only during the cold-wet period. Accordingly, the marginal distributions were calculated for each studied station, as they are further used by the copula method. Finally, several copula families, both Archimedean and Elliptical, were tested in order to choose the most appropriate one to model the relation of the studied data sets. Consequently, this study achieves to model the dependence of the main climate parameters (temperature and precipitation) with the Copula method. The Frank copula was identified as the best family to describe the joint distribution of temperature, for the majority of station groups. For precipitation, the best copula families are BB1 and Survival Gumbel. Using the probability distribution diagrams, the probability of a combination of temperature and precipitation values between stations is estimated.

A Tomographic Method for the Reconstruction of Local Probability Density Functions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sivathanu, Y. R.; Gore, J. P.

1993-01-01

A method of obtaining the probability density function (PDF) of local properties from path integrated measurements is described. The approach uses a discrete probability function (DPF) method to infer the PDF of the local extinction coefficient from measurements of the PDFs of the path integrated transmittance. The local PDFs obtained using the method are compared with those obtained from direct intrusive measurements in propylene/air and ethylene/air diffusion flames. The results of this comparison are good.

Predictive probability methods for interim monitoring in clinical trials with longitudinal outcomes.

PubMed

Zhou, Ming; Tang, Qi; Lang, Lixin; Xing, Jun; Tatsuoka, Kay

2018-04-17

In clinical research and development, interim monitoring is critical for better decision-making and minimizing the risk of exposing patients to possible ineffective therapies. For interim futility or efficacy monitoring, predictive probability methods are widely adopted in practice. Those methods have been well studied for univariate variables. However, for longitudinal studies, predictive probability methods using univariate information from only completers may not be most efficient, and data from on-going subjects can be utilized to improve efficiency. On the other hand, leveraging information from on-going subjects could allow an interim analysis to be potentially conducted once a sufficient number of subjects reach an earlier time point. For longitudinal outcomes, we derive closed-form formulas for predictive probabilities, including Bayesian predictive probability, predictive power, and conditional power and also give closed-form solutions for predictive probability of success in a future trial and the predictive probability of success of the best dose. When predictive probabilities are used for interim monitoring, we study their distributions and discuss their analytical cutoff values or stopping boundaries that have desired operating characteristics. We show that predictive probabilities utilizing all longitudinal information are more efficient for interim monitoring than that using information from completers only. To illustrate their practical application for longitudinal data, we analyze 2 real data examples from clinical trials. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

On probability-possibility transformations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Klir, George J.; Parviz, Behzad

1992-01-01

Several probability-possibility transformations are compared in terms of the closeness of preserving second-order properties. The comparison is based on experimental results obtained by computer simulation. Two second-order properties are involved in this study: noninteraction of two distributions and projections of a joint distribution.

Comparison of three Bayesian methods to estimate posttest probability in patients undergoing exercise stress testing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Morise, A.P.; Duval, R.D.

To determine whether recent refinements in Bayesian methods have led to improved diagnostic ability, 3 methods using Bayes' theorem and the independence assumption for estimating posttest probability after exercise stress testing were compared. Each method differed in the number of variables considered in the posttest probability estimate (method A = 5, method B = 6 and method C = 15). Method C is better known as CADENZA. There were 436 patients (250 men and 186 women) who underwent stress testing (135 had concurrent thallium scintigraphy) followed within 2 months by coronary arteriography. Coronary artery disease ((CAD), at least 1 vesselmore » with greater than or equal to 50% diameter narrowing) was seen in 169 (38%). Mean pretest probabilities using each method were not different. However, the mean posttest probabilities for CADENZA were significantly greater than those for method A or B (p less than 0.0001). Each decile of posttest probability was compared to the actual prevalence of CAD in that decile. At posttest probabilities less than or equal to 20%, there was underestimation of CAD. However, at posttest probabilities greater than or equal to 60%, there was overestimation of CAD by all methods, especially CADENZA. Comparison of sensitivity and specificity at every fifth percentile of posttest probability revealed that CADENZA was significantly more sensitive and less specific than methods A and B. Therefore, at lower probability thresholds, CADENZA was a better screening method. However, methods A or B still had merit as a means to confirm higher probabilities generated by CADENZA (especially greater than or equal to 60%).« less

Intelligent screening of electrofusion-polyethylene joints based on a thermal NDT method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doaei, Marjan; Tavallali, M. Sadegh

2018-05-01

The combinations of infrared thermal images and artificial intelligence methods have opened new avenues for pushing the boundaries of available testing methods. Hence, in the current study, a novel thermal non-destructive testing method for polyethylene electrofusion joints was combined with k-means clustering algorithms as an intelligent screening tool. The experiments focused on ovality of pipes in the coupler, as well as misalignment of pipes-couplers in 25 mm diameter joints. The temperature responses of each joint to an internal heat pulse were recorded by an IR thermal camera, and further processed to identify the faulty joints. The results represented clustering accuracy of 92%, as well as more than 90% abnormality detection capabilities.

Integration of Geophysical Methods By A Generalised Probability Tomography Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mauriello, P.; Patella, D.

In modern science, the propensity interpretative approach stands on the assumption that any physical system consists of two kinds of reality: actual and potential. Also geophysical data systems have potentialities that extend far beyond the few actual models normally attributed to them. Indeed, any geophysical data set is in itself quite inherently ambiguous. Classical deterministic inversion, including tomography, usu- ally forces a measured data set to collapse into a few rather subjective models based on some available a priori information. Classical interpretation is thus an intrinsically limited approach requiring a very deep logical extension. We think that a way to high- light a system full potentiality is to introduce probability as the leading paradigm in dealing with field data systems. Probability tomography has been recently introduced as a completely new approach to data interpretation. Probability tomography has been originally formulated for the self-potential method. It has been then extended to geo- electric, natural source electromagnetic induction, gravity and magnetic methods. Fol- lowing the same rationale, in this paper we generalize the probability tomography the- ory to a generic geophysical anomaly vector field, including the treatment for scalar fields as a particular case. This generalization makes then possible to address for the first time the problem of the integration of different methods by a conjoint probabil- ity tomography imaging procedure. The aim is to infer the existence of an unknown buried object through the analysis of an ad hoc occurrence probability function, blend- ing the physical messages brought forth by a set of singularly observed anomalies.

Reliability analysis of redundant systems. [a method to compute transition probabilities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yeh, H. Y.

1974-01-01

A method is proposed to compute the transition probability (the probability of partial or total failure) of parallel redundant system. The effect of geometry of the system, the direction of load, and the degree of redundancy on the probability of complete survival of parachute-like system are also studied. The results show that the probability of complete survival of three-member parachute-like system is very sensitive to the variation of horizontal angle of the load. However, it becomes very insignificant as the degree of redundancy increases.

PARTS: Probabilistic Alignment for RNA joinT Secondary structure prediction

PubMed Central

Harmanci, Arif Ozgun; Sharma, Gaurav; Mathews, David H.

2008-01-01

A novel method is presented for joint prediction of alignment and common secondary structures of two RNA sequences. The joint consideration of common secondary structures and alignment is accomplished by structural alignment over a search space defined by the newly introduced motif called matched helical regions. The matched helical region formulation generalizes previously employed constraints for structural alignment and thereby better accommodates the structural variability within RNA families. A probabilistic model based on pseudo free energies obtained from precomputed base pairing and alignment probabilities is utilized for scoring structural alignments. Maximum a posteriori (MAP) common secondary structures, sequence alignment and joint posterior probabilities of base pairing are obtained from the model via a dynamic programming algorithm called PARTS. The advantage of the more general structural alignment of PARTS is seen in secondary structure predictions for the RNase P family. For this family, the PARTS MAP predictions of secondary structures and alignment perform significantly better than prior methods that utilize a more restrictive structural alignment model. For the tRNA and 5S rRNA families, the richer structural alignment model of PARTS does not offer a benefit and the method therefore performs comparably with existing alternatives. For all RNA families studied, the posterior probability estimates obtained from PARTS offer an improvement over posterior probability estimates from a single sequence prediction. When considering the base pairings predicted over a threshold value of confidence, the combination of sensitivity and positive predictive value is superior for PARTS than for the single sequence prediction. PARTS source code is available for download under the GNU public license at http://rna.urmc.rochester.edu. PMID:18304945

Bivariate categorical data analysis using normal linear conditional multinomial probability model.

PubMed

Sun, Bingrui; Sutradhar, Brajendra

2015-02-10

Bivariate multinomial data such as the left and right eyes retinopathy status data are analyzed either by using a joint bivariate probability model or by exploiting certain odds ratio-based association models. However, the joint bivariate probability model yields marginal probabilities, which are complicated functions of marginal and association parameters for both variables, and the odds ratio-based association model treats the odds ratios involved in the joint probabilities as 'working' parameters, which are consequently estimated through certain arbitrary 'working' regression models. Also, this later odds ratio-based model does not provide any easy interpretations of the correlations between two categorical variables. On the basis of pre-specified marginal probabilities, in this paper, we develop a bivariate normal type linear conditional multinomial probability model to understand the correlations between two categorical variables. The parameters involved in the model are consistently estimated using the optimal likelihood and generalized quasi-likelihood approaches. The proposed model and the inferences are illustrated through an intensive simulation study as well as an analysis of the well-known Wisconsin Diabetic Retinopathy status data. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The maximum entropy method of moments and Bayesian probability theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bretthorst, G. Larry

2013-08-01

The problem of density estimation occurs in many disciplines. For example, in MRI it is often necessary to classify the types of tissues in an image. To perform this classification one must first identify the characteristics of the tissues to be classified. These characteristics might be the intensity of a T1 weighted image and in MRI many other types of characteristic weightings (classifiers) may be generated. In a given tissue type there is no single intensity that characterizes the tissue, rather there is a distribution of intensities. Often this distributions can be characterized by a Gaussian, but just as often it is much more complicated. Either way, estimating the distribution of intensities is an inference problem. In the case of a Gaussian distribution, one must estimate the mean and standard deviation. However, in the Non-Gaussian case the shape of the density function itself must be inferred. Three common techniques for estimating density functions are binned histograms [1, 2], kernel density estimation [3, 4], and the maximum entropy method of moments [5, 6]. In the introduction, the maximum entropy method of moments will be reviewed. Some of its problems and conditions under which it fails will be discussed. Then in later sections, the functional form of the maximum entropy method of moments probability distribution will be incorporated into Bayesian probability theory. It will be shown that Bayesian probability theory solves all of the problems with the maximum entropy method of moments. One gets posterior probabilities for the Lagrange multipliers, and, finally, one can put error bars on the resulting estimated density function.

Joint probabilities of extreme precipitation and wind gusts in Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Waldow, H.; Martius, O.

2012-04-01

Extreme meteorological events such as storms, heavy rain, floods, droughts and heat waves can have devastating consequences for human health, infrastructure and ecosystems. Concomitantly occurring extreme events might interact synergistically to produce a particularly hazardous impact. The joint occurrence of droughts and heat waves, for example, can have a very different impact on human health and ecosystems both in quantity and quality, than just one of the two extreme events. The co-occurrence of certain types of extreme events is plausible from physical and dynamical considerations, for example heavy precipitation and high wind speeds in the pathway of strong extratropical cyclones. The winter storm Kyrill not only caused wind gust speeds well in excess of 30 m/s across Europe, but also brought 24 h precipitation sums greater than the mean January accumulations in some regions. However, the existence of such compound risks is currently not accounted for by insurance companies, who assume independence of extreme weather events to calculate their premiums. While there are established statistical methods to model the extremes of univariate meteorological variables, the modelling of multidimensional extremes calls for an approach that is tailored to the specific problem at hand. A first step involves defining extreme bivariate wind/precipitation events. Because precipitation and wind gusts caused by the same cyclone or convective cell do not occur at exactly the same location and at the same time, it is necessary to find a sound definition of "extreme compound event" for this case. We present a data driven method to choose appropriate time and space intervals that define "concomitance" for wind and precipitation extremes. Based on station data of wind speed and gridded precipitation data, we arrive at time and space intervals that compare well with the typical time and space scales of extratropical cyclones, i.e. a maximum time lag of 1 day and a maximum distance

Constructing inverse probability weights for continuous exposures: a comparison of methods.

PubMed

Naimi, Ashley I; Moodie, Erica E M; Auger, Nathalie; Kaufman, Jay S

2014-03-01

Inverse probability-weighted marginal structural models with binary exposures are common in epidemiology. Constructing inverse probability weights for a continuous exposure can be complicated by the presence of outliers, and the need to identify a parametric form for the exposure and account for nonconstant exposure variance. We explored the performance of various methods to construct inverse probability weights for continuous exposures using Monte Carlo simulation. We generated two continuous exposures and binary outcomes using data sampled from a large empirical cohort. The first exposure followed a normal distribution with homoscedastic variance. The second exposure followed a contaminated Poisson distribution, with heteroscedastic variance equal to the conditional mean. We assessed six methods to construct inverse probability weights using: a normal distribution, a normal distribution with heteroscedastic variance, a truncated normal distribution with heteroscedastic variance, a gamma distribution, a t distribution (1, 3, and 5 degrees of freedom), and a quantile binning approach (based on 10, 15, and 20 exposure categories). We estimated the marginal odds ratio for a single-unit increase in each simulated exposure in a regression model weighted by the inverse probability weights constructed using each approach, and then computed the bias and mean squared error for each method. For the homoscedastic exposure, the standard normal, gamma, and quantile binning approaches performed best. For the heteroscedastic exposure, the quantile binning, gamma, and heteroscedastic normal approaches performed best. Our results suggest that the quantile binning approach is a simple and versatile way to construct inverse probability weights for continuous exposures.

Numerical simulation of artificial hip joint motion based on human age factor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramdhani, Safarudin; Saputra, Eko; Jamari, J.

2018-05-01

Artificial hip joint is a prosthesis (synthetic body part) which usually consists of two or more components. Replacement of the hip joint due to the occurrence of arthritis, ordinarily patients aged or older. Numerical simulation models are used to observe the range of motion in the artificial hip joint, the range of motion of joints used as the basis of human age. Finite- element analysis (FEA) is used to calculate stress von mises in motion and observes a probability of prosthetic impingement. FEA uses a three-dimensional nonlinear model and considers the position variation of acetabular liner cups. The result of numerical simulation shows that FEA method can be used to analyze the performance calculation of the artificial hip joint at this time more accurate than conventional method.

On the quantification and efficient propagation of imprecise probabilities resulting from small datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Jiaxin; Shields, Michael D.

2018-01-01

This paper addresses the problem of uncertainty quantification and propagation when data for characterizing probability distributions are scarce. We propose a methodology wherein the full uncertainty associated with probability model form and parameter estimation are retained and efficiently propagated. This is achieved by applying the information-theoretic multimodel inference method to identify plausible candidate probability densities and associated probabilities that each method is the best model in the Kullback-Leibler sense. The joint parameter densities for each plausible model are then estimated using Bayes' rule. We then propagate this full set of probability models by estimating an optimal importance sampling density that is representative of all plausible models, propagating this density, and reweighting the samples according to each of the candidate probability models. This is in contrast with conventional methods that try to identify a single probability model that encapsulates the full uncertainty caused by lack of data and consequently underestimate uncertainty. The result is a complete probabilistic description of both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty achieved with several orders of magnitude reduction in computational cost. It is shown how the model can be updated to adaptively accommodate added data and added candidate probability models. The method is applied for uncertainty analysis of plate buckling strength where it is demonstrated how dataset size affects the confidence (or lack thereof) we can place in statistical estimates of response when data are lacking.

Scalable Joint Models for Reliable Uncertainty-Aware Event Prediction.

PubMed

Soleimani, Hossein; Hensman, James; Saria, Suchi

2017-08-21

Missing data and noisy observations pose significant challenges for reliably predicting events from irregularly sampled multivariate time series (longitudinal) data. Imputation methods, which are typically used for completing the data prior to event prediction, lack a principled mechanism to account for the uncertainty due to missingness. Alternatively, state-of-the-art joint modeling techniques can be used for jointly modeling the longitudinal and event data and compute event probabilities conditioned on the longitudinal observations. These approaches, however, make strong parametric assumptions and do not easily scale to multivariate signals with many observations. Our proposed approach consists of several key innovations. First, we develop a flexible and scalable joint model based upon sparse multiple-output Gaussian processes. Unlike state-of-the-art joint models, the proposed model can explain highly challenging structure including non-Gaussian noise while scaling to large data. Second, we derive an optimal policy for predicting events using the distribution of the event occurrence estimated by the joint model. The derived policy trades-off the cost of a delayed detection versus incorrect assessments and abstains from making decisions when the estimated event probability does not satisfy the derived confidence criteria. Experiments on a large dataset show that the proposed framework significantly outperforms state-of-the-art techniques in event prediction.

Probabilistic Simulation of Progressive Fracture in Bolted-Joint Composite Laminates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Minnetyan, L.; Singhal, S. N.; Chamis, C. C.

1996-01-01

This report describes computational methods to probabilistically simulate fracture in bolted composite structures. An innovative approach that is independent of stress intensity factors and fracture toughness was used to simulate progressive fracture. The effect of design variable uncertainties on structural damage was also quantified. A fast probability integrator assessed the scatter in the composite structure response before and after damage. Then the sensitivity of the response to design variables was computed. General-purpose methods, which are applicable to bolted joints in all types of structures and in all fracture processes-from damage initiation to unstable propagation and global structure collapse-were used. These methods were demonstrated for a bolted joint of a polymer matrix composite panel under edge loads. The effects of the fabrication process were included in the simulation of damage in the bolted panel. Results showed that the most effective way to reduce end displacement at fracture is to control both the load and the ply thickness. The cumulative probability for longitudinal stress in all plies was most sensitive to the load; in the 0 deg. plies it was very sensitive to ply thickness. The cumulative probability for transverse stress was most sensitive to the matrix coefficient of thermal expansion. In addition, fiber volume ratio and fiber transverse modulus both contributed significantly to the cumulative probability for the transverse stresses in all the plies.

Maximum aposteriori joint source/channel coding

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sayood, Khalid; Gibson, Jerry D.

1991-01-01

A maximum aposteriori probability (MAP) approach to joint source/channel coder design is presented in this paper. This method attempts to explore a technique for designing joint source/channel codes, rather than ways of distributing bits between source coders and channel coders. For a nonideal source coder, MAP arguments are used to design a decoder which takes advantage of redundancy in the source coder output to perform error correction. Once the decoder is obtained, it is analyzed with the purpose of obtaining 'desirable properties' of the channel input sequence for improving overall system performance. Finally, an encoder design which incorporates these properties is proposed.

The Laplace method for probability measures in Banach spaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piterbarg, V. I.; Fatalov, V. R.

1995-12-01

Contents §1. Introduction Chapter I. Asymptotic analysis of continual integrals in Banach space, depending on a large parameter §2. The large deviation principle and logarithmic asymptotics of continual integrals §3. Exact asymptotics of Gaussian integrals in Banach spaces: the Laplace method 3.1. The Laplace method for Gaussian integrals taken over the whole Hilbert space: isolated minimum points ([167], I) 3.2. The Laplace method for Gaussian integrals in Hilbert space: the manifold of minimum points ([167], II) 3.3. The Laplace method for Gaussian integrals in Banach space ([90], [174], [176]) 3.4. Exact asymptotics of large deviations of Gaussian norms §4. The Laplace method for distributions of sums of independent random elements with values in Banach space 4.1. The case of a non-degenerate minimum point ([137], I) 4.2. A degenerate isolated minimum point and the manifold of minimum points ([137], II) §5. Further examples 5.1. The Laplace method for the local time functional of a Markov symmetric process ([217]) 5.2. The Laplace method for diffusion processes, a finite number of non-degenerate minimum points ([116]) 5.3. Asymptotics of large deviations for Brownian motion in the Hölder norm 5.4. Non-asymptotic expansion of a strong stable law in Hilbert space ([41]) Chapter II. The double sum method - a version of the Laplace method in the space of continuous functions §6. Pickands' method of double sums 6.1. General situations 6.2. Asymptotics of the distribution of the maximum of a Gaussian stationary process 6.3. Asymptotics of the probability of a large excursion of a Gaussian non-stationary process §7. Probabilities of large deviations of trajectories of Gaussian fields 7.1. Homogeneous fields and fields with constant dispersion 7.2. Finitely many maximum points of dispersion 7.3. Manifold of maximum points of dispersion 7.4. Asymptotics of distributions of maxima of Wiener fields §8. Exact asymptotics of large deviations of the norm of Gaussian

Polynomial probability distribution estimation using the method of moments

PubMed Central

Mattsson, Lars; Rydén, Jesper

2017-01-01

We suggest a procedure for estimating Nth degree polynomial approximations to unknown (or known) probability density functions (PDFs) based on N statistical moments from each distribution. The procedure is based on the method of moments and is setup algorithmically to aid applicability and to ensure rigor in use. In order to show applicability, polynomial PDF approximations are obtained for the distribution families Normal, Log-Normal, Weibull as well as for a bimodal Weibull distribution and a data set of anonymized household electricity use. The results are compared with results for traditional PDF series expansion methods of Gram–Charlier type. It is concluded that this procedure is a comparatively simple procedure that could be used when traditional distribution families are not applicable or when polynomial expansions of probability distributions might be considered useful approximations. In particular this approach is practical for calculating convolutions of distributions, since such operations become integrals of polynomial expressions. Finally, in order to show an advanced applicability of the method, it is shown to be useful for approximating solutions to the Smoluchowski equation. PMID:28394949

Polynomial probability distribution estimation using the method of moments.

PubMed

Munkhammar, Joakim; Mattsson, Lars; Rydén, Jesper

2017-01-01

We suggest a procedure for estimating Nth degree polynomial approximations to unknown (or known) probability density functions (PDFs) based on N statistical moments from each distribution. The procedure is based on the method of moments and is setup algorithmically to aid applicability and to ensure rigor in use. In order to show applicability, polynomial PDF approximations are obtained for the distribution families Normal, Log-Normal, Weibull as well as for a bimodal Weibull distribution and a data set of anonymized household electricity use. The results are compared with results for traditional PDF series expansion methods of Gram-Charlier type. It is concluded that this procedure is a comparatively simple procedure that could be used when traditional distribution families are not applicable or when polynomial expansions of probability distributions might be considered useful approximations. In particular this approach is practical for calculating convolutions of distributions, since such operations become integrals of polynomial expressions. Finally, in order to show an advanced applicability of the method, it is shown to be useful for approximating solutions to the Smoluchowski equation.

A New Method for Generating Probability Tables in the Unresolved Resonance Region

DOE PAGES

Holcomb, Andrew M.; Leal, Luiz C.; Rahnema, Farzad; ...

2017-04-18

One new method for constructing probability tables in the unresolved resonance region (URR) has been developed. This new methodology is an extensive modification of the single-level Breit-Wigner (SLBW) pseudo-resonance pair sequence method commonly used to generate probability tables in the URR. The new method uses a Monte Carlo process to generate many pseudo-resonance sequences by first sampling the average resonance parameter data in the URR and then converting the sampled resonance parameters to the more robust R-matrix limited (RML) format. Furthermore, for each sampled set of pseudo-resonance sequences, the temperature-dependent cross sections are reconstructed on a small grid around themore » energy of reference using the Reich-Moore formalism and the Leal-Hwang Doppler broadening methodology. We then use the effective cross sections calculated at the energies of reference to construct probability tables in the URR. The RML cross-section reconstruction algorithm has been rigorously tested for a variety of isotopes, including 16O, 19F, 35Cl, 56Fe, 63Cu, and 65Cu. The new URR method also produced normalized cross-section factor probability tables for 238U that were found to be in agreement with current standards. The modified 238U probability tables were shown to produce results in excellent agreement with several standard benchmarks, including the IEU-MET-FAST-007 (BIG TEN), IEU-MET-FAST-003, and IEU-COMP-FAST-004 benchmarks.« less

Lithological and Surface Geometry Joint Inversions Using Multi-Objective Global Optimization Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lelièvre, Peter; Bijani, Rodrigo; Farquharson, Colin

2016-04-01

Geologists' interpretations about the Earth typically involve distinct rock units with contacts (interfaces) between them. In contrast, standard minimum-structure geophysical inversions are performed on meshes of space-filling cells (typically prisms or tetrahedra) and recover smoothly varying physical property distributions that are inconsistent with typical geological interpretations. There are several approaches through which mesh-based minimum-structure geophysical inversion can help recover models with some of the desired characteristics. However, a more effective strategy may be to consider two fundamentally different types of inversions: lithological and surface geometry inversions. A major advantage of these two inversion approaches is that joint inversion of multiple types of geophysical data is greatly simplified. In a lithological inversion, the subsurface is discretized into a mesh and each cell contains a particular rock type. A lithological model must be translated to a physical property model before geophysical data simulation. Each lithology may map to discrete property values or there may be some a priori probability density function associated with the mapping. Through this mapping, lithological inverse problems limit the parameter domain and consequently reduce the non-uniqueness from that presented by standard mesh-based inversions that allow physical property values on continuous ranges. Furthermore, joint inversion is greatly simplified because no additional mathematical coupling measure is required in the objective function to link multiple physical property models. In a surface geometry inversion, the model comprises wireframe surfaces representing contacts between rock units. This parameterization is then fully consistent with Earth models built by geologists, which in 3D typically comprise wireframe contact surfaces of tessellated triangles. As for the lithological case, the physical properties of the units lying between the contact

An novel frequent probability pattern mining algorithm based on circuit simulation method in uncertain biological networks

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Motif mining has always been a hot research topic in bioinformatics. Most of current research on biological networks focuses on exact motif mining. However, due to the inevitable experimental error and noisy data, biological network data represented as the probability model could better reflect the authenticity and biological significance, therefore, it is more biological meaningful to discover probability motif in uncertain biological networks. One of the key steps in probability motif mining is frequent pattern discovery which is usually based on the possible world model having a relatively high computational complexity. Methods In this paper, we present a novel method for detecting frequent probability patterns based on circuit simulation in the uncertain biological networks. First, the partition based efficient search is applied to the non-tree like subgraph mining where the probability of occurrence in random networks is small. Then, an algorithm of probability isomorphic based on circuit simulation is proposed. The probability isomorphic combines the analysis of circuit topology structure with related physical properties of voltage in order to evaluate the probability isomorphism between probability subgraphs. The circuit simulation based probability isomorphic can avoid using traditional possible world model. Finally, based on the algorithm of probability subgraph isomorphism, two-step hierarchical clustering method is used to cluster subgraphs, and discover frequent probability patterns from the clusters. Results The experiment results on data sets of the Protein-Protein Interaction (PPI) networks and the transcriptional regulatory networks of E. coli and S. cerevisiae show that the proposed method can efficiently discover the frequent probability subgraphs. The discovered subgraphs in our study contain all probability motifs reported in the experiments published in other related papers. Conclusions The algorithm of probability graph isomorphism

Rotational joint assembly and method for constructing the same

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bandera, Pablo (Inventor); Buchele, Paul (Inventor)

2012-01-01

A rotational joint assembly and a method for constructing a rotational joint assembly are provided. The rotational joint assembly includes a first rotational component, a second rotational component coupled to the first rotational component such that the second rotational component is rotatable relative to the first rotational component in first and second rotational directions about an axis, and a flexure member, being deflectable in first and second deflection directions, coupled to at least one of the first and second rotational components such that when the second rotational component is rotated relative to the first rotational component in each of the first and second rotational directions about the axis, the flexure member is deflected in the first deflection direction and exerts a force on the second rotational component opposing the rotation.

Comparison of dynamic treatment regimes via inverse probability weighting.

PubMed

Hernán, Miguel A; Lanoy, Emilie; Costagliola, Dominique; Robins, James M

2006-03-01

Appropriate analysis of observational data is our best chance to obtain answers to many questions that involve dynamic treatment regimes. This paper describes a simple method to compare dynamic treatment regimes by artificially censoring subjects and then using inverse probability weighting (IPW) to adjust for any selection bias introduced by the artificial censoring. The basic strategy can be summarized in four steps: 1) define two regimes of interest, 2) artificially censor individuals when they stop following one of the regimes of interest, 3) estimate inverse probability weights to adjust for the potential selection bias introduced by censoring in the previous step, 4) compare the survival of the uncensored individuals under each regime of interest by fitting an inverse probability weighted Cox proportional hazards model with the dichotomous regime indicator and the baseline confounders as covariates. In the absence of model misspecification, the method is valid provided data are available on all time-varying and baseline joint predictors of survival and regime discontinuation. We present an application of the method to compare the AIDS-free survival under two dynamic treatment regimes in a large prospective study of HIV-infected patients. The paper concludes by discussing the relative advantages and disadvantages of censoring/IPW versus g-estimation of nested structural models to compare dynamic regimes.

Bivariate normal, conditional and rectangular probabilities: A computer program with applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Swaroop, R.; Brownlow, J. D.; Ashwworth, G. R.; Winter, W. R.

1980-01-01

Some results for the bivariate normal distribution analysis are presented. Computer programs for conditional normal probabilities, marginal probabilities, as well as joint probabilities for rectangular regions are given: routines for computing fractile points and distribution functions are also presented. Some examples from a closed circuit television experiment are included.

A probability-based multi-cycle sorting method for 4D-MRI: A simulation study

PubMed Central

Liang, Xiao; Yin, Fang-Fang; Liu, Yilin; Cai, Jing

2016-01-01

Purpose: To develop a novel probability-based sorting method capable of generating multiple breathing cycles of 4D-MRI images and to evaluate performance of this new method by comparing with conventional phase-based methods in terms of image quality and tumor motion measurement. Methods: Based on previous findings that breathing motion probability density function (PDF) of a single breathing cycle is dramatically different from true stabilized PDF that resulted from many breathing cycles, it is expected that a probability-based sorting method capable of generating multiple breathing cycles of 4D images may capture breathing variation information missing from conventional single-cycle sorting methods. The overall idea is to identify a few main breathing cycles (and their corresponding weightings) that can best represent the main breathing patterns of the patient and then reconstruct a set of 4D images for each of the identified main breathing cycles. This method is implemented in three steps: (1) The breathing signal is decomposed into individual breathing cycles, characterized by amplitude, and period; (2) individual breathing cycles are grouped based on amplitude and period to determine the main breathing cycles. If a group contains more than 10% of all breathing cycles in a breathing signal, it is determined as a main breathing pattern group and is represented by the average of individual breathing cycles in the group; (3) for each main breathing cycle, a set of 4D images is reconstructed using a result-driven sorting method adapted from our previous study. The probability-based sorting method was first tested on 26 patients’ breathing signals to evaluate its feasibility of improving target motion PDF. The new method was subsequently tested for a sequential image acquisition scheme on the 4D digital extended cardiac torso (XCAT) phantom. Performance of the probability-based and conventional sorting methods was evaluated in terms of target volume precision and

A probability-based multi-cycle sorting method for 4D-MRI: A simulation study.

PubMed

Liang, Xiao; Yin, Fang-Fang; Liu, Yilin; Cai, Jing

2016-12-01

To develop a novel probability-based sorting method capable of generating multiple breathing cycles of 4D-MRI images and to evaluate performance of this new method by comparing with conventional phase-based methods in terms of image quality and tumor motion measurement. Based on previous findings that breathing motion probability density function (PDF) of a single breathing cycle is dramatically different from true stabilized PDF that resulted from many breathing cycles, it is expected that a probability-based sorting method capable of generating multiple breathing cycles of 4D images may capture breathing variation information missing from conventional single-cycle sorting methods. The overall idea is to identify a few main breathing cycles (and their corresponding weightings) that can best represent the main breathing patterns of the patient and then reconstruct a set of 4D images for each of the identified main breathing cycles. This method is implemented in three steps: (1) The breathing signal is decomposed into individual breathing cycles, characterized by amplitude, and period; (2) individual breathing cycles are grouped based on amplitude and period to determine the main breathing cycles. If a group contains more than 10% of all breathing cycles in a breathing signal, it is determined as a main breathing pattern group and is represented by the average of individual breathing cycles in the group; (3) for each main breathing cycle, a set of 4D images is reconstructed using a result-driven sorting method adapted from our previous study. The probability-based sorting method was first tested on 26 patients' breathing signals to evaluate its feasibility of improving target motion PDF. The new method was subsequently tested for a sequential image acquisition scheme on the 4D digital extended cardiac torso (XCAT) phantom. Performance of the probability-based and conventional sorting methods was evaluated in terms of target volume precision and accuracy as measured

An novel frequent probability pattern mining algorithm based on circuit simulation method in uncertain biological networks.

PubMed

He, Jieyue; Wang, Chunyan; Qiu, Kunpu; Zhong, Wei

2014-01-01

Motif mining has always been a hot research topic in bioinformatics. Most of current research on biological networks focuses on exact motif mining. However, due to the inevitable experimental error and noisy data, biological network data represented as the probability model could better reflect the authenticity and biological significance, therefore, it is more biological meaningful to discover probability motif in uncertain biological networks. One of the key steps in probability motif mining is frequent pattern discovery which is usually based on the possible world model having a relatively high computational complexity. In this paper, we present a novel method for detecting frequent probability patterns based on circuit simulation in the uncertain biological networks. First, the partition based efficient search is applied to the non-tree like subgraph mining where the probability of occurrence in random networks is small. Then, an algorithm of probability isomorphic based on circuit simulation is proposed. The probability isomorphic combines the analysis of circuit topology structure with related physical properties of voltage in order to evaluate the probability isomorphism between probability subgraphs. The circuit simulation based probability isomorphic can avoid using traditional possible world model. Finally, based on the algorithm of probability subgraph isomorphism, two-step hierarchical clustering method is used to cluster subgraphs, and discover frequent probability patterns from the clusters. The experiment results on data sets of the Protein-Protein Interaction (PPI) networks and the transcriptional regulatory networks of E. coli and S. cerevisiae show that the proposed method can efficiently discover the frequent probability subgraphs. The discovered subgraphs in our study contain all probability motifs reported in the experiments published in other related papers. The algorithm of probability graph isomorphism evaluation based on circuit simulation

Classic maximum entropy recovery of the average joint distribution of apparent FRET efficiency and fluorescence photons for single-molecule burst measurements.

PubMed

DeVore, Matthew S; Gull, Stephen F; Johnson, Carey K

2012-04-05

We describe a method for analysis of single-molecule Förster resonance energy transfer (FRET) burst measurements using classic maximum entropy. Classic maximum entropy determines the Bayesian inference for the joint probability describing the total fluorescence photons and the apparent FRET efficiency. The method was tested with simulated data and then with DNA labeled with fluorescent dyes. The most probable joint distribution can be marginalized to obtain both the overall distribution of fluorescence photons and the apparent FRET efficiency distribution. This method proves to be ideal for determining the distance distribution of FRET-labeled biomolecules, and it successfully predicts the shape of the recovered distributions.

Classic Maximum Entropy Recovery of the Average Joint Distribution of Apparent FRET Efficiency and Fluorescence Photons for Single-molecule Burst Measurements

PubMed Central

DeVore, Matthew S.; Gull, Stephen F.; Johnson, Carey K.

2012-01-01

We describe a method for analysis of single-molecule Förster resonance energy transfer (FRET) burst measurements using classic maximum entropy. Classic maximum entropy determines the Bayesian inference for the joint probability describing the total fluorescence photons and the apparent FRET efficiency. The method was tested with simulated data and then with DNA labeled with fluorescent dyes. The most probable joint distribution can be marginalized to obtain both the overall distribution of fluorescence photons and the apparent FRET efficiency distribution. This method proves to be ideal for determining the distance distribution of FRET-labeled biomolecules, and it successfully predicts the shape of the recovered distributions. PMID:22338694

Preload Monitoring of Bolted L-Shaped Lap Joints Using Virtual Time Reversal Method.

PubMed

Du, Fei; Xu, Chao; Wu, Guannan; Zhang, Jie

2018-06-13

L-shaped bolt lap joints are commonly used in aerospace and civil structures. However, bolt joints are frequently subjected to loosening, and this has a significant effect on the safety and reliability of these structures. Therefore, bolt preload monitoring is very important, especially at the early stage of loosening. In this paper, a virtual time reversal guided wave method is presented to monitor preload of bolted L-shaped lap joints accurately and simply. In this method, a referenced reemitting signal (RRS) is extracted from the bolted structure in fully tightened condition. Then the RRS is utilized as the excitation signal for the bolted structure in loosening states, and the normalized peak amplitude of refocused wave packet is used as the tightness index (TI A ). The proposed method is experimentally validated by L-shaped bolt joints with single and multiple bolts. Moreover, the selections of guided wave frequency and tightness index are also discussed. The results demonstrate that the relationship between TI A and bolt preload is linear. The detection sensitivity is improved significantly compared with time reversal (TR) method, particularly when bolt loosening is at its embryo stage. The results also show that TR method is an effective method for detection of the number of loosening bolts.

Quantum probability assignment limited by relativistic causality.

PubMed

Han, Yeong Deok; Choi, Taeseung

2016-03-14

Quantum theory has nonlocal correlations, which bothered Einstein, but found to satisfy relativistic causality. Correlation for a shared quantum state manifests itself, in the standard quantum framework, by joint probability distributions that can be obtained by applying state reduction and probability assignment that is called Born rule. Quantum correlations, which show nonlocality when the shared state has an entanglement, can be changed if we apply different probability assignment rule. As a result, the amount of nonlocality in quantum correlation will be changed. The issue is whether the change of the rule of quantum probability assignment breaks relativistic causality. We have shown that Born rule on quantum measurement is derived by requiring relativistic causality condition. This shows how the relativistic causality limits the upper bound of quantum nonlocality through quantum probability assignment.

Disassembly Properties of Cementitious Finish Joints Using an Induction Heating Method

PubMed Central

Ahn, Jaecheol; Noguchi, Takafumi; Kitagaki, Ryoma

2015-01-01

Efficient maintenance and upgrading of a building during its lifecycle are difficult because a cementitious finish uses materials and parts with low disassembly properties. Additionally, the reuse and recycling processes during building demolition also present numerous problems from the perspective of environmental technology. In this study, an induction heating (IH) method was used to disassemble cementitious finish joints, which are widely used to join building members and materials. The IH rapidly and selectively heated and weakened these joints. The temperature elevation characteristics of the cementitious joint materials were measured as a function of several resistor types, including wire meshes and punching metals, which are usually used for cementitious finishing. The disassembly properties were evaluated through various tests using conductive resistors in cementitious joints such as mortar. When steel fiber, punching metal, and wire mesh were used as conductive resistors, the cementitious modifiers could be weakened within 30 s. Cementitious joints with conductive resistors also showed complete disassembly with little residual bond strength.

Method of self-consistent evaluation of absolute emission probabilities of particles and gamma rays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Badikov, Sergei; Chechev, Valery

2017-09-01

In assumption of well installed decay scheme the method provides a) exact balance relationships, b) lower (compared to the traditional techniques) uncertainties of recommended absolute emission probabilities of particles and gamma rays, c) evaluation of correlations between the recommended emission probabilities (for the same and different decay modes). Application of the method for the decay data evaluation for even curium isotopes led to paradoxical results. The multidimensional confidence regions for the probabilities of the most intensive alpha transitions constructed on the basis of present and the ENDF/B-VII.1, JEFF-3.1, DDEP evaluations are inconsistent whereas the confidence intervals for the evaluated probabilities of single transitions agree with each other.

Numerical built-in method for the nonlinear JRC/JCS model in rock joint.

PubMed

Liu, Qunyi; Xing, Wanli; Li, Ying

2014-01-01

The joint surface is widely distributed in the rock, thus leading to the nonlinear characteristics of rock mass strength and limiting the effectiveness of the linear model in reflecting characteristics. The JRC/JCS model is the nonlinear failure criterion and generally believed to describe the characteristics of joints better than other models. In order to develop the numerical program for JRC/JCS model, this paper established the relationship between the parameters of the JRC/JCS and Mohr-Coulomb models. Thereafter, the numerical implement method and implementation process of the JRC/JCS model were discussed and the reliability of the numerical method was verified by the shear tests of jointed rock mass. Finally, the effect of the JRC/JCS model parameters on the shear strength of the joint was analyzed.

A Discrete Probability Function Method for the Equation of Radiative Transfer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sivathanu, Y. R.; Gore, J. P.

1993-01-01

A discrete probability function (DPF) method for the equation of radiative transfer is derived. The DPF is defined as the integral of the probability density function (PDF) over a discrete interval. The derivation allows the evaluation of the PDF of intensities leaving desired radiation paths including turbulence-radiation interactions without the use of computer intensive stochastic methods. The DPF method has a distinct advantage over conventional PDF methods since the creation of a partial differential equation from the equation of transfer is avoided. Further, convergence of all moments of intensity is guaranteed at the basic level of simulation unlike the stochastic method where the number of realizations for convergence of higher order moments increases rapidly. The DPF method is described for a representative path with approximately integral-length scale-sized spatial discretization. The results show good agreement with measurements in a propylene/air flame except for the effects of intermittency resulting from highly correlated realizations. The method can be extended to the treatment of spatial correlations as described in the Appendix. However, information regarding spatial correlations in turbulent flames is needed prior to the execution of this extension.

Probability evolution method for exit location distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Jinjie; Chen, Zhen; Liu, Xianbin

2018-03-01

The exit problem in the framework of the large deviation theory has been a hot topic in the past few decades. The most probable escape path in the weak-noise limit has been clarified by the Freidlin-Wentzell action functional. However, noise in real physical systems cannot be arbitrarily small while noise with finite strength may induce nontrivial phenomena, such as noise-induced shift and noise-induced saddle-point avoidance. Traditional Monte Carlo simulation of noise-induced escape will take exponentially large time as noise approaches zero. The majority of the time is wasted on the uninteresting wandering around the attractors. In this paper, a new method is proposed to decrease the escape simulation time by an exponentially large factor by introducing a series of interfaces and by applying the reinjection on them. This method can be used to calculate the exit location distribution. It is verified by examining two classical examples and is compared with theoretical predictions. The results show that the method performs well for weak noise while may induce certain deviations for large noise. Finally, some possible ways to improve our method are discussed.

A Most Probable Point-Based Method for Reliability Analysis, Sensitivity Analysis and Design Optimization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hou, Gene J.-W; Newman, Perry A. (Technical Monitor)

2004-01-01

A major step in a most probable point (MPP)-based method for reliability analysis is to determine the MPP. This is usually accomplished by using an optimization search algorithm. The minimum distance associated with the MPP provides a measurement of safety probability, which can be obtained by approximate probability integration methods such as FORM or SORM. The reliability sensitivity equations are derived first in this paper, based on the derivatives of the optimal solution. Examples are provided later to demonstrate the use of these derivatives for better reliability analysis and reliability-based design optimization (RBDO).

Surveillance system and method having an adaptive sequential probability fault detection test

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Herzog, James P. (Inventor); Bickford, Randall L. (Inventor)

2005-01-01

System and method providing surveillance of an asset such as a process and/or apparatus by providing training and surveillance procedures that numerically fit a probability density function to an observed residual error signal distribution that is correlative to normal asset operation and then utilizes the fitted probability density function in a dynamic statistical hypothesis test for providing improved asset surveillance.

Surveillance system and method having an adaptive sequential probability fault detection test

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bickford, Randall L. (Inventor); Herzog, James P. (Inventor)

2006-01-01

System and method providing surveillance of an asset such as a process and/or apparatus by providing training and surveillance procedures that numerically fit a probability density function to an observed residual error signal distribution that is correlative to normal asset operation and then utilizes the fitted probability density function in a dynamic statistical hypothesis test for providing improved asset surveillance.

Surveillance System and Method having an Adaptive Sequential Probability Fault Detection Test

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bickford, Randall L. (Inventor); Herzog, James P. (Inventor)

2008-01-01

System and method providing surveillance of an asset such as a process and/or apparatus by providing training and surveillance procedures that numerically fit a probability density function to an observed residual error signal distribution that is correlative to normal asset operation and then utilizes the fitted probability density function in a dynamic statistical hypothesis test for providing improved asset surveillance.

Independent Events in Elementary Probability Theory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Csenki, Attila

2011-01-01

In Probability and Statistics taught to mathematicians as a first introduction or to a non-mathematical audience, joint independence of events is introduced by requiring that the multiplication rule is satisfied. The following statement is usually tacitly assumed to hold (and, at best, intuitively motivated): If the n events E[subscript 1],…

Parameters Estimation For A Patellofemoral Joint Of A Human Knee Using A Vector Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciszkiewicz, A.; Knapczyk, J.

2015-08-01

Position and displacement analysis of a spherical model of a human knee joint using the vector method was presented. Sensitivity analysis and parameter estimation were performed using the evolutionary algorithm method. Computer simulations for the mechanism with estimated parameters proved the effectiveness of the prepared software. The method itself can be useful when solving problems concerning the displacement and loads analysis in the knee joint.

Stress analysis method for clearance-fit joints with bearing-bypass loads

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Naik, R. A.; Crews, J. H., Jr.

1989-01-01

Within a multi-fastener joint, fastener holes may be subjected to the combined effects of bearing loads and loads that bypass the hole to be reacted elsewhere in the joint. The analysis of a joint subjected to search combined bearing and bypass loads is complicated by the usual clearance between the hole and the fastener. A simple analysis method for such clearance-fit joints subjected to bearing-bypass loading has been developed in the present study. It uses an inverse formulation with a linear elastic finite-element analysis. Conditions along the bolt-hole contact arc are specified by displacement constraint equations. The present method is simple to apply and can be implemented with most general purpose finite-element programs since it does not use complicated iterative-incremental procedures. The method was used to study the effects of bearing-bypass loading on bolt-hole contact angles and local stresses. In this study, a rigid, frictionless bolt was used with a plate having the properties of a quasi-isotropic graphite/epoxy laminate. Results showed that the contact angle as well as the peak stresses around the hole and their locations were strongly influenced by the ratio of bearing and bypass loads. For single contact, tension and compression bearing-bypass loading had opposite effects on the contact angle. For some compressive bearing-bypass loads, the hole tended to close on the fastener leading to dual contact. It was shown that dual contact reduces the stress concentration at the fastener and would, therefore, increase joint strength in compression. The results illustrate the general importance of accounting for bolt-hole clearance and contact to accurately compute local bolt-hole stresses for combined bearings and bypass loading.

Birth/birth-death processes and their computable transition probabilities with biological applications.

PubMed

Ho, Lam Si Tung; Xu, Jason; Crawford, Forrest W; Minin, Vladimir N; Suchard, Marc A

2018-03-01

Birth-death processes track the size of a univariate population, but many biological systems involve interaction between populations, necessitating models for two or more populations simultaneously. A lack of efficient methods for evaluating finite-time transition probabilities of bivariate processes, however, has restricted statistical inference in these models. Researchers rely on computationally expensive methods such as matrix exponentiation or Monte Carlo approximation, restricting likelihood-based inference to small systems, or indirect methods such as approximate Bayesian computation. In this paper, we introduce the birth/birth-death process, a tractable bivariate extension of the birth-death process, where rates are allowed to be nonlinear. We develop an efficient algorithm to calculate its transition probabilities using a continued fraction representation of their Laplace transforms. Next, we identify several exemplary models arising in molecular epidemiology, macro-parasite evolution, and infectious disease modeling that fall within this class, and demonstrate advantages of our proposed method over existing approaches to inference in these models. Notably, the ubiquitous stochastic susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) model falls within this class, and we emphasize that computable transition probabilities newly enable direct inference of parameters in the SIR model. We also propose a very fast method for approximating the transition probabilities under the SIR model via a novel branching process simplification, and compare it to the continued fraction representation method with application to the 17th century plague in Eyam. Although the two methods produce similar maximum a posteriori estimates, the branching process approximation fails to capture the correlation structure in the joint posterior distribution.

A Method for and Issues Associated with the Determination of Space Suit Joint Requirements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Matty, Jennifer E.; Aitchison, Lindsay

2010-01-01

This joint mobility KC lecture included information from two papers, "A Method for and Issues Associated with the Determination of Space Suit Joint Requirements" and "Results and Analysis from Space Suit Joint Torque Testing," as presented for the International Conference on Environmental Systems in 2009 and 2010, respectively. The first paper discusses historical joint torque testing methodologies and approaches that were tested in 2008 and 2009. The second paper discusses the testing that was completed in 2009 and 2010.

Nonstationary envelope process and first excursion probability.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, J.-N.

1972-01-01

The definition of stationary random envelope proposed by Cramer and Leadbetter, is extended to the envelope of nonstationary random process possessing evolutionary power spectral densities. The density function, the joint density function, the moment function, and the crossing rate of a level of the nonstationary envelope process are derived. Based on the envelope statistics, approximate solutions to the first excursion probability of nonstationary random processes are obtained. In particular, applications of the first excursion probability to the earthquake engineering problems are demonstrated in detail.

New method for estimating low-earth-orbit collision probabilities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vedder, John D.; Tabor, Jill L.

1991-01-01

An unconventional but general method is described for estimating the probability of collision between an earth-orbiting spacecraft and orbital debris. This method uses a Monte Caralo simulation of the orbital motion of the target spacecraft and each discrete debris object to generate an empirical set of distances, each distance representing the separation between the spacecraft and the nearest debris object at random times. Using concepts from the asymptotic theory of extreme order statistics, an analytical density function is fitted to this set of minimum distances. From this function, it is possible to generate realistic collision estimates for the spacecraft.

Controlling the joint local false discovery rate is more powerful than meta-analysis methods in joint analysis of summary statistics from multiple genome-wide association studies.

PubMed

Jiang, Wei; Yu, Weichuan

2017-02-15

In genome-wide association studies (GWASs) of common diseases/traits, we often analyze multiple GWASs with the same phenotype together to discover associated genetic variants with higher power. Since it is difficult to access data with detailed individual measurements, summary-statistics-based meta-analysis methods have become popular to jointly analyze datasets from multiple GWASs. In this paper, we propose a novel summary-statistics-based joint analysis method based on controlling the joint local false discovery rate (Jlfdr). We prove that our method is the most powerful summary-statistics-based joint analysis method when controlling the false discovery rate at a certain level. In particular, the Jlfdr-based method achieves higher power than commonly used meta-analysis methods when analyzing heterogeneous datasets from multiple GWASs. Simulation experiments demonstrate the superior power of our method over meta-analysis methods. Also, our method discovers more associations than meta-analysis methods from empirical datasets of four phenotypes. The R-package is available at: http://bioinformatics.ust.hk/Jlfdr.html . eeyu@ust.hk. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

A joint tracking method for NSCC based on WLS algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Ruidan; Xu, Ying; Yuan, Hong

2017-12-01

Navigation signal based on compound carrier (NSCC), has the flexible multi-carrier scheme and various scheme parameters configuration, which enables it to possess significant efficiency of navigation augmentation in terms of spectral efficiency, tracking accuracy, multipath mitigation capability and anti-jamming reduction compared with legacy navigation signals. Meanwhile, the typical scheme characteristics can provide auxiliary information for signal synchronism algorithm design. This paper, based on the characteristics of NSCC, proposed a kind of joint tracking method utilizing Weighted Least Square (WLS) algorithm. In this method, the LS algorithm is employed to jointly estimate each sub-carrier frequency shift with the frequency-Doppler linear relationship, by utilizing the known sub-carrier frequency. Besides, the weighting matrix is set adaptively according to the sub-carrier power to ensure the estimation accuracy. Both the theory analysis and simulation results illustrate that the tracking accuracy and sensitivity of this method outperforms the single-carrier algorithm with lower SNR.

A Bayesian method for using simulator data to enhance human error probabilities assigned by existing HRA methods

DOE PAGES

Groth, Katrina M.; Smith, Curtis L.; Swiler, Laura P.

2014-04-05

In the past several years, several international agencies have begun to collect data on human performance in nuclear power plant simulators [1]. This data provides a valuable opportunity to improve human reliability analysis (HRA), but there improvements will not be realized without implementation of Bayesian methods. Bayesian methods are widely used in to incorporate sparse data into models in many parts of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), but Bayesian methods have not been adopted by the HRA community. In this article, we provide a Bayesian methodology to formally use simulator data to refine the human error probabilities (HEPs) assigned by existingmore » HRA methods. We demonstrate the methodology with a case study, wherein we use simulator data from the Halden Reactor Project to update the probability assignments from the SPAR-H method. The case study demonstrates the ability to use performance data, even sparse data, to improve existing HRA methods. Furthermore, this paper also serves as a demonstration of the value of Bayesian methods to improve the technical basis of HRA.« less

Subspace methods for identification of human ankle joint stiffness.

PubMed

Zhao, Y; Westwick, D T; Kearney, R E

2011-11-01

Joint stiffness, the dynamic relationship between the angular position of a joint and the torque acting about it, describes the dynamic, mechanical behavior of a joint during posture and movement. Joint stiffness arises from both intrinsic and reflex mechanisms, but the torques due to these mechanisms cannot be measured separately experimentally, since they appear and change together. Therefore, the direct estimation of the intrinsic and reflex stiffnesses is difficult. In this paper, we present a new, two-step procedure to estimate the intrinsic and reflex components of ankle stiffness. In the first step, a discrete-time, subspace-based method is used to estimate a state-space model for overall stiffness from the measured overall torque and then predict the intrinsic and reflex torques. In the second step, continuous-time models for the intrinsic and reflex stiffnesses are estimated from the predicted intrinsic and reflex torques. Simulations and experimental results demonstrate that the algorithm estimates the intrinsic and reflex stiffnesses accurately. The new subspace-based algorithm has three advantages over previous algorithms: 1) It does not require iteration, and therefore, will always converge to an optimal solution; 2) it provides better estimates for data with high noise or short sample lengths; and 3) it provides much more accurate results for data acquired under the closed-loop conditions, that prevail when subjects interact with compliant loads.

[Implication of inverse-probability weighting method in the evaluation of diagnostic test with verification bias].

PubMed

Kang, Leni; Zhang, Shaokai; Zhao, Fanghui; Qiao, Youlin

2014-03-01

To evaluate and adjust the verification bias existed in the screening or diagnostic tests. Inverse-probability weighting method was used to adjust the sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic tests, with an example of cervical cancer screening used to introduce the Compare Tests package in R software which could be implemented. Sensitivity and specificity calculated from the traditional method and maximum likelihood estimation method were compared to the results from Inverse-probability weighting method in the random-sampled example. The true sensitivity and specificity of the HPV self-sampling test were 83.53% (95%CI:74.23-89.93)and 85.86% (95%CI: 84.23-87.36). In the analysis of data with randomly missing verification by gold standard, the sensitivity and specificity calculated by traditional method were 90.48% (95%CI:80.74-95.56)and 71.96% (95%CI:68.71-75.00), respectively. The adjusted sensitivity and specificity under the use of Inverse-probability weighting method were 82.25% (95% CI:63.11-92.62) and 85.80% (95% CI: 85.09-86.47), respectively, whereas they were 80.13% (95%CI:66.81-93.46)and 85.80% (95%CI: 84.20-87.41) under the maximum likelihood estimation method. The inverse-probability weighting method could effectively adjust the sensitivity and specificity of a diagnostic test when verification bias existed, especially when complex sampling appeared.

Double needle technique: an alternative method for performing difficult sacroiliac joint injections.

PubMed

Gupta, Sanjeeva

2011-01-01

The sacroiliac joint (SIJ) is a common source of low back pain. The most appropriate method of confirming SIJ pain is to inject local anesthesia into the joint to find out if the pain decreases. Unfortunately, although the SIJ is a large joint, it can be difficult to enter due to the complex nature of the joint and variations in anatomy. In my experience a double needle technique for sacroiliac joint injection can increase the chances of accurate injection into the SIJ in difficult cases. After obtaining appropriate fluoroscopic images, the tip of the needle is advanced into the SIJ. Once the tip of the needle is correctly placed, its position is checked under continuous fluoroscopy while moving the C-arm in the right and left oblique directions (dynamic fluoroscopy). On dynamic fluoroscopy the tip of the needle should remain within the joint line and not appear to be on the bone. If the tip of the needle appears to be on the bone a new joint line will need to be identified (the most translucent area through the joint) by dynamic fluoroscopy and another needle advanced into the newly identified joint line. Dynamic fluoroscopy is repeated again to confirm that the tip of the second needle remains within the joint line. Once both needles are in place contrast dye is injected through the needle that is most likely to be in the SIJ. If the contrast dye spread is not satisfactory then it is injected through the other needle. I have used this technique in 10 patients and found it very helpful in accurately performing SIJ injection which can at times be challenging.

The perception of probability.

PubMed

Gallistel, C R; Krishan, Monika; Liu, Ye; Miller, Reilly; Latham, Peter E

2014-01-01

We present a computational model to explain the results from experiments in which subjects estimate the hidden probability parameter of a stepwise nonstationary Bernoulli process outcome by outcome. The model captures the following results qualitatively and quantitatively, with only 2 free parameters: (a) Subjects do not update their estimate after each outcome; they step from one estimate to another at irregular intervals. (b) The joint distribution of step widths and heights cannot be explained on the assumption that a threshold amount of change must be exceeded in order for them to indicate a change in their perception. (c) The mapping of observed probability to the median perceived probability is the identity function over the full range of probabilities. (d) Precision (how close estimates are to the best possible estimate) is good and constant over the full range. (e) Subjects quickly detect substantial changes in the hidden probability parameter. (f) The perceived probability sometimes changes dramatically from one observation to the next. (g) Subjects sometimes have second thoughts about a previous change perception, after observing further outcomes. (h) The frequency with which they perceive changes moves in the direction of the true frequency over sessions. (Explaining this finding requires 2 additional parametric assumptions.) The model treats the perception of the current probability as a by-product of the construction of a compact encoding of the experienced sequence in terms of its change points. It illustrates the why and the how of intermittent Bayesian belief updating and retrospective revision in simple perception. It suggests a reinterpretation of findings in the recent literature on the neurobiology of decision making. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved).

The Estimation of Tree Posterior Probabilities Using Conditional Clade Probability Distributions

PubMed Central

Larget, Bret

2013-01-01

In this article I introduce the idea of conditional independence of separated subtrees as a principle by which to estimate the posterior probability of trees using conditional clade probability distributions rather than simple sample relative frequencies. I describe an algorithm for these calculations and software which implements these ideas. I show that these alternative calculations are very similar to simple sample relative frequencies for high probability trees but are substantially more accurate for relatively low probability trees. The method allows the posterior probability of unsampled trees to be calculated when these trees contain only clades that are in other sampled trees. Furthermore, the method can be used to estimate the total probability of the set of sampled trees which provides a measure of the thoroughness of a posterior sample. [Bayesian phylogenetics; conditional clade distributions; improved accuracy; posterior probabilities of trees.] PMID:23479066

A Method of Face Detection with Bayesian Probability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarker, Goutam

2010-10-01

The objective of face detection is to identify all images which contain a face, irrespective of its orientation, illumination conditions etc. This is a hard problem, because the faces are highly variable in size, shape lighting conditions etc. Many methods have been designed and developed to detect faces in a single image. The present paper is based on one `Appearance Based Method' which relies on learning the facial and non facial features from image examples. This in its turn is based on statistical analysis of examples and counter examples of facial images and employs Bayesian Conditional Classification Rule to detect the probability of belongingness of a face (or non-face) within an image frame. The detection rate of the present system is very high and thereby the number of false positive and false negative detection is substantially low.

Probability machines: consistent probability estimation using nonparametric learning machines.

PubMed

Malley, J D; Kruppa, J; Dasgupta, A; Malley, K G; Ziegler, A

2012-01-01

Most machine learning approaches only provide a classification for binary responses. However, probabilities are required for risk estimation using individual patient characteristics. It has been shown recently that every statistical learning machine known to be consistent for a nonparametric regression problem is a probability machine that is provably consistent for this estimation problem. The aim of this paper is to show how random forests and nearest neighbors can be used for consistent estimation of individual probabilities. Two random forest algorithms and two nearest neighbor algorithms are described in detail for estimation of individual probabilities. We discuss the consistency of random forests, nearest neighbors and other learning machines in detail. We conduct a simulation study to illustrate the validity of the methods. We exemplify the algorithms by analyzing two well-known data sets on the diagnosis of appendicitis and the diagnosis of diabetes in Pima Indians. Simulations demonstrate the validity of the method. With the real data application, we show the accuracy and practicality of this approach. We provide sample code from R packages in which the probability estimation is already available. This means that all calculations can be performed using existing software. Random forest algorithms as well as nearest neighbor approaches are valid machine learning methods for estimating individual probabilities for binary responses. Freely available implementations are available in R and may be used for applications.

A New Self-Constrained Inversion Method of Potential Fields Based on Probability Tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, S.; Chen, C.; WANG, H.; Wang, Q.

2014-12-01

The self-constrained inversion method of potential fields uses a priori information self-extracted from potential field data. Differing from external a priori information, the self-extracted information are generally parameters derived exclusively from the analysis of the gravity and magnetic data (Paoletti et al., 2013). Here we develop a new self-constrained inversion method based on probability tomography. Probability tomography doesn't need any priori information, as well as large inversion matrix operations. Moreover, its result can describe the sources, especially the distribution of which is complex and irregular, entirely and clearly. Therefore, we attempt to use the a priori information extracted from the probability tomography results to constrain the inversion for physical properties. The magnetic anomaly data was taken as an example in this work. The probability tomography result of magnetic total field anomaly(ΔΤ) shows a smoother distribution than the anomalous source and cannot display the source edges exactly. However, the gradients of ΔΤ are with higher resolution than ΔΤ in their own direction, and this characteristic is also presented in their probability tomography results. So we use some rules to combine the probability tomography results of ∂ΔΤ⁄∂x, ∂ΔΤ⁄∂y and ∂ΔΤ⁄∂z into a new result which is used for extracting a priori information, and then incorporate the information into the model objective function as spatial weighting functions to invert the final magnetic susceptibility. Some magnetic synthetic examples incorporated with and without a priori information extracted from the probability tomography results were made to do comparison, results of which show that the former are more concentrated and with higher resolution of the source body edges. This method is finally applied in an iron mine in China with field measured ΔΤ data and performs well. ReferencesPaoletti, V., Ialongo, S., Florio, G., Fedi, M

A method to deconvolve stellar rotational velocities II. The probability distribution function via Tikhonov regularization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christen, Alejandra; Escarate, Pedro; Curé, Michel; Rial, Diego F.; Cassetti, Julia

2016-10-01

Aims: Knowing the distribution of stellar rotational velocities is essential for understanding stellar evolution. Because we measure the projected rotational speed v sin I, we need to solve an ill-posed problem given by a Fredholm integral of the first kind to recover the "true" rotational velocity distribution. Methods: After discretization of the Fredholm integral we apply the Tikhonov regularization method to obtain directly the probability distribution function for stellar rotational velocities. We propose a simple and straightforward procedure to determine the Tikhonov parameter. We applied Monte Carlo simulations to prove that the Tikhonov method is a consistent estimator and asymptotically unbiased. Results: This method is applied to a sample of cluster stars. We obtain confidence intervals using a bootstrap method. Our results are in close agreement with those obtained using the Lucy method for recovering the probability density distribution of rotational velocities. Furthermore, Lucy estimation lies inside our confidence interval. Conclusions: Tikhonov regularization is a highly robust method that deconvolves the rotational velocity probability density function from a sample of v sin I data directly without the need for any convergence criteria.

Methods for the Joint Meta-Analysis of Multiple Tests

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Trikalinos, Thomas A.; Hoaglin, David C.; Small, Kevin M.; Terrin, Norma; Schmid, Christopher H.

2014-01-01

Existing methods for meta-analysis of diagnostic test accuracy focus primarily on a single index test. We propose models for the joint meta-analysis of studies comparing multiple index tests on the same participants in paired designs. These models respect the grouping of data by studies, account for the within-study correlation between the tests'…

Evaluation of the photoionization probability of H2+ by the trajectory semiclassical method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arkhipov, D. N.; Astashkevich, S. A.; Mityureva, A. A.; Smirnov, V. V.

2018-07-01

The trajectory-based method for calculating the probabilities of transitions in the quantum system developed in our previous works and tested for atoms is applied to calculating the photoionization probability for the simplest molecule - hydrogen molecular ion. In a weak field it is established a good agreement between our photoionization cross section and the data obtained by other theoretical methods for photon energy in the range from one-photon ionization threshold up to 25 a.u. Photoionization cross section in the range 25 < ω ≤ 100 a.u. was calculated for the first time judging by the literature known to us. It is also confirmed that the trajectory method works in a wide range of the field magnitudes including superatomic values up to relativistic intensity.

The estimation of tree posterior probabilities using conditional clade probability distributions.

PubMed

Larget, Bret

2013-07-01

In this article I introduce the idea of conditional independence of separated subtrees as a principle by which to estimate the posterior probability of trees using conditional clade probability distributions rather than simple sample relative frequencies. I describe an algorithm for these calculations and software which implements these ideas. I show that these alternative calculations are very similar to simple sample relative frequencies for high probability trees but are substantially more accurate for relatively low probability trees. The method allows the posterior probability of unsampled trees to be calculated when these trees contain only clades that are in other sampled trees. Furthermore, the method can be used to estimate the total probability of the set of sampled trees which provides a measure of the thoroughness of a posterior sample.

Method for PE Pipes Fusion Jointing Based on TRIZ Contradictions Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Jianguang; Tan, Runhua; Gao, Jinyong; Wei, Zihui

The core of the TRIZ theories is the contradiction detection and solution. TRIZ provided various methods for the contradiction solution, but all that is not systematized. Combined with the technique system conception, this paper summarizes an integration solution method for contradiction solution based on the TRIZ contradiction theory. According to the method, a flowchart of integration solution method for contradiction is given. As a casestudy, method of fusion jointing PE pipe is analysised.

A method of classification for multisource data in remote sensing based on interval-valued probabilities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Hakil; Swain, Philip H.

1990-01-01

An axiomatic approach to intervalued (IV) probabilities is presented, where the IV probability is defined by a pair of set-theoretic functions which satisfy some pre-specified axioms. On the basis of this approach representation of statistical evidence and combination of multiple bodies of evidence are emphasized. Although IV probabilities provide an innovative means for the representation and combination of evidential information, they make the decision process rather complicated. It entails more intelligent strategies for making decisions. The development of decision rules over IV probabilities is discussed from the viewpoint of statistical pattern recognition. The proposed method, so called evidential reasoning method, is applied to the ground-cover classification of a multisource data set consisting of Multispectral Scanner (MSS) data, Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data, and digital terrain data such as elevation, slope, and aspect. By treating the data sources separately, the method is able to capture both parametric and nonparametric information and to combine them. Then the method is applied to two separate cases of classifying multiband data obtained by a single sensor. In each case a set of multiple sources is obtained by dividing the dimensionally huge data into smaller and more manageable pieces based on the global statistical correlation information. By a divide-and-combine process, the method is able to utilize more features than the conventional maximum likelihood method.

Assessment of NDE Methods to Detect Lack of Fusion in HDPE Butt Fusion Joints

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Crawford, Susan L.; Doctor, Steven R.; Cinson, Anthony D.

2011-07-31

Studies at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) in Richland, Washington, were conducted to evaluate nondestructive examinations (NDE) coupled with mechanical testing of butt fusion joints in high-density polyethylene (HDPE) pipe for assessing lack of fusion. The work provided information to the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) on the effectiveness of volumetric inspection techniques of HDPE butt fusion joints in Section III, Division 1, Class 3, buried piping systems in nuclear power plants. This paper describes results from assessments using ultrasonic and microwave nondestructive techniques and mechanical testing with the high-speed tensile impact test and the side-bend test formore » determining joint integrity. A series of butt joints were fabricated in 3408, 12-inch (30.5-cm) IPS DR-11 HDPE material by varying the fusion parameters to create good joints and joints containing a range of lack-of-fusion conditions. Six of these butt joints were volumetrically examined with time-of-flight diffraction (TOFD), phased-array (PA) ultrasound, and the Evisive microwave system. The outer diameter (OD) weld beads were removed for microwave evaluation and the pipes ultrasonically re-evaluated. In two of the six pipes, both the outer and inner diameter (ID) weld beads were removed and the pipe joints re-evaluated. Some of the pipes were sectioned and the joints destructively evaluated with the high-speed tensile test and the side-bend test. The fusion parameters, nondestructive and destructive evaluation results have been correlated to validate the effectiveness of what each NDE technology detects and what each does not detect. There was no single NDE method that detected all of the lack-of-fusion flaws but a combination of NDE methods did detect most of the flaws.« less

A Vision-Aided 3D Path Teaching Method before Narrow Butt Joint Welding.

PubMed

Zeng, Jinle; Chang, Baohua; Du, Dong; Peng, Guodong; Chang, Shuhe; Hong, Yuxiang; Wang, Li; Shan, Jiguo

2017-05-11

For better welding quality, accurate path teaching for actuators must be achieved before welding. Due to machining errors, assembly errors, deformations, etc., the actual groove position may be different from the predetermined path. Therefore, it is significant to recognize the actual groove position using machine vision methods and perform an accurate path teaching process. However, during the teaching process of a narrow butt joint, the existing machine vision methods may fail because of poor adaptability, low resolution, and lack of 3D information. This paper proposes a 3D path teaching method for narrow butt joint welding. This method obtains two kinds of visual information nearly at the same time, namely 2D pixel coordinates of the groove in uniform lighting condition and 3D point cloud data of the workpiece surface in cross-line laser lighting condition. The 3D position and pose between the welding torch and groove can be calculated after information fusion. The image resolution can reach 12.5 μm. Experiments are carried out at an actuator speed of 2300 mm/min and groove width of less than 0.1 mm. The results show that this method is suitable for groove recognition before narrow butt joint welding and can be applied in path teaching fields of 3D complex components.

Analysis of polyethylene terephthalate PET plastic bottle jointing system using finite element method (FEM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaidi, N. A.; Rosli, Muhamad Farizuan; Effendi, M. S. M.; Abdullah, Mohamad Hariri

2017-09-01

For almost all injection molding applications of Polyethylene Terephthalate (PET) plastic was analyzed the strength, durability and stiffness of properties by using Finite Element Method (FEM) for jointing system of wood furniture. The FEM was utilized for analyzing the PET jointing system for Oak and Pine as wood based material of furniture. The difference pattern design of PET as wood jointing furniture gives the difference value of strength furniture itself. The results show the wood specimen with grooves and eclipse pattern design PET jointing give lower global estimated error is 28.90%, compare to the rectangular and non-grooves wood specimen of global estimated error is 63.21%.

Probability of spacesuit-induced fingernail trauma is associated with hand circumference.

PubMed

Opperman, Roedolph A; Waldie, James M A; Natapoff, Alan; Newman, Dava J; Jones, Jeffrey A

2010-10-01

A significant number of astronauts sustain hand injuries during extravehicular activity training and operations. These hand injuries have been known to cause fingernail delamination (onycholysis) that requires medical intervention. This study investigated correlations between the anthropometrics of the hand and susceptibility to injury. The analysis explored the hypothesis that crewmembers with a high finger-to-hand size ratio are more likely to experience injuries. A database of 232 crewmembers' injury records and anthropometrics was sourced from NASA Johnson Space Center. No significant effect of finger-to-hand size was found on the probability of injury, but circumference and width of the metacarpophalangeal (MCP) joint were found to be significantly associated with injuries by the Kruskal-Wallis test. A multivariate logistic regression showed that hand circumference is the dominant effect on the likelihood of onycholysis. Male crewmembers with a hand circumference > 22.86 cm (9") have a 19.6% probability of finger injury, but those with hand circumferences < or = 22.86 cm (9") only have a 5.6% chance of injury. Findings were similar for female crewmembers. This increased probability may be due to constriction at large MCP joints by the current NASA Phase VI glove. Constriction may lead to occlusion of vascular flow to the fingers that may increase the chances of onycholysis. Injury rates are lower on gloves such as the superseded series 4000 and the Russian Orlan that provide more volume for the MCP joint. This suggests that we can reduce onycholysis by modifying the design of the current gloves at the MCP joint.

The effects of the one-step replica symmetry breaking on the Sherrington-Kirkpatrick spin glass model in the presence of random field with a joint Gaussian probability density function for the exchange interactions and random fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hadjiagapiou, Ioannis A.; Velonakis, Ioannis N.

2018-07-01

The Sherrington-Kirkpatrick Ising spin glass model, in the presence of a random magnetic field, is investigated within the framework of the one-step replica symmetry breaking. The two random variables (exchange integral interaction Jij and random magnetic field hi) are drawn from a joint Gaussian probability density function characterized by a correlation coefficient ρ, assuming positive and negative values. The thermodynamic properties, the three different phase diagrams and system's parameters are computed with respect to the natural parameters of the joint Gaussian probability density function at non-zero and zero temperatures. The low temperature negative entropy controversy, a result of the replica symmetry approach, has been partly remedied in the current study, leading to a less negative result. In addition, the present system possesses two successive spin glass phase transitions with characteristic temperatures.

Performance of toxicity probability interval based designs in contrast to the continual reassessment method

PubMed Central

Horton, Bethany Jablonski; Wages, Nolan A.; Conaway, Mark R.

2016-01-01

Toxicity probability interval designs have received increasing attention as a dose-finding method in recent years. In this study, we compared the two-stage, likelihood-based continual reassessment method (CRM), modified toxicity probability interval (mTPI), and the Bayesian optimal interval design (BOIN) in order to evaluate each method's performance in dose selection for Phase I trials. We use several summary measures to compare the performance of these methods, including percentage of correct selection (PCS) of the true maximum tolerable dose (MTD), allocation of patients to doses at and around the true MTD, and an accuracy index. This index is an efficiency measure that describes the entire distribution of MTD selection and patient allocation by taking into account the distance between the true probability of toxicity at each dose level and the target toxicity rate. The simulation study considered a broad range of toxicity curves and various sample sizes. When considering PCS, we found that CRM outperformed the two competing methods in most scenarios, followed by BOIN, then mTPI. We observed a similar trend when considering the accuracy index for dose allocation, where CRM most often outperformed both the mTPI and BOIN. These trends were more pronounced with increasing number of dose levels. PMID:27435150

Application of a semi-automatic cartilage segmentation method for biomechanical modeling of the knee joint.

PubMed

Liukkonen, Mimmi K; Mononen, Mika E; Tanska, Petri; Saarakkala, Simo; Nieminen, Miika T; Korhonen, Rami K

2017-10-01

Manual segmentation of articular cartilage from knee joint 3D magnetic resonance images (MRI) is a time consuming and laborious task. Thus, automatic methods are needed for faster and reproducible segmentations. In the present study, we developed a semi-automatic segmentation method based on radial intensity profiles to generate 3D geometries of knee joint cartilage which were then used in computational biomechanical models of the knee joint. Six healthy volunteers were imaged with a 3T MRI device and their knee cartilages were segmented both manually and semi-automatically. The values of cartilage thicknesses and volumes produced by these two methods were compared. Furthermore, the influences of possible geometrical differences on cartilage stresses and strains in the knee were evaluated with finite element modeling. The semi-automatic segmentation and 3D geometry construction of one knee joint (menisci, femoral and tibial cartilages) was approximately two times faster than with manual segmentation. Differences in cartilage thicknesses, volumes, contact pressures, stresses, and strains between segmentation methods in femoral and tibial cartilage were mostly insignificant (p > 0.05) and random, i.e. there were no systematic differences between the methods. In conclusion, the devised semi-automatic segmentation method is a quick and accurate way to determine cartilage geometries; it may become a valuable tool for biomechanical modeling applications with large patient groups.

Determination of Parachute Joint Factors using Seam and Joint Testing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mollmann, Catherine

2015-01-01

This paper details the methodology for determining the joint factor for all parachute components. This method has been successfully implemented on the Capsule Parachute Assembly System (CPAS) for the NASA Orion crew module for use in determining the margin of safety for each component under peak loads. Also discussed are concepts behind the joint factor and what drives the loss of material strength at joints. The joint factor is defined as a "loss in joint strength...relative to the basic material strength" that occurs when "textiles are connected to each other or to metals." During the CPAS engineering development phase, a conservative joint factor of 0.80 was assumed for each parachute component. In order to refine this factor and eliminate excess conservatism, a seam and joint testing program was implemented as part of the structural validation. This method split each of the parachute structural joints into discrete tensile tests designed to duplicate the loading of each joint. Breaking strength data collected from destructive pull testing was then used to calculate the joint factor in the form of an efficiency. Joint efficiency is the percentage of the base material strength that remains after degradation due to sewing or interaction with other components; it is used interchangeably with joint factor in this paper. Parachute materials vary in type-mainly cord, tape, webbing, and cloth -which require different test fixtures and joint sample construction methods. This paper defines guidelines for designing and testing samples based on materials and test goals. Using the test methodology and analysis approach detailed in this paper, the minimum joint factor for each parachute component can be formulated. The joint factors can then be used to calculate the design factor and margin of safety for that component, a critical part of the design verification process.

Method and apparatus for preloading a joint by remotely operable means

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kahn, Jon B. (Inventor)

1993-01-01

The invention is a method and apparatus for joining structures, an active structure and a passive structure, and imposing a tensile pre-load on the joint by a remotely operable mechanism comprising a heat contractible joining element. The method and apparatus include mounting on the structure, a probe shaft of material which is transformable from an expanded length to a contracted length when heated to a specific temperature range. The shaft is provided with a probe head which is receivable in a receptacle opening formed in the passive structure, when the active structure is moved into engagement therewith by an appropriate manipulator mechanism. A latching system mounted on the structure adjacent to the receptacle opening captures the probe head, when the probe head is inserted a predetermined amount. A heating coil on the shaft is energizable by remote control for heating the shaft to a temperature range which transforms the shaft to its contracted length, whereby a latching shoulder thereof engages latching elements of the latching system and imposes a tensile preload on the structural joint. Provision is also made for manually adjusting the probe head on the shaft to allow for manual detachment of the structures or manual preloading of the structural joint.

Method and apparatus for preloading a joint by remotely operable means

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shelton, Robert O. (Inventor)

1992-01-01

The invention is a method and apparatus for joining structures, an active structure and a passive structure, and imposing a tensile pre-load on the joint by a remotely operable mechanism comprising a heat contractible joining element. The method and apparatus include mounting on the structure, a probe shaft of material which is transformable from an expanded length to a contracted length when heated to a specific temperature range. The shaft is provided with a probe head which is receivable in a receptacle opening formed in the passive structure, when the active structure is moved into engagement therewith by an appropriate manipulator mechanism. A latching system mounted on the structure adjacent to the receptacle opening captures the probe head, when the probe head is inserted a predetermined amount. A heating coil on the shaft is energizable by remote control for heating the shaft to a temperature range which transforms the shaft to its contracted length, whereby a latching shoulder thereof engages latching elements of the latching system and imposes a tensile preload on the structural joint. Provision is also made for manually adjusting the probe head on the shaft to allow for manual detachment of the structures or manual preloading of the structural joint.

How weak values emerge in joint measurements on cloned quantum systems.

PubMed

Hofmann, Holger F

2012-07-13

A statistical analysis of optimal universal cloning shows that it is possible to identify an ideal (but nonpositive) copying process that faithfully maps all properties of the original Hilbert space onto two separate quantum systems, resulting in perfect correlations for all observables. The joint probabilities for noncommuting measurements on separate clones then correspond to the real parts of the complex joint probabilities observed in weak measurements on a single system, where the measurements on the two clones replace the corresponding sequence of weak measurement and postselection. The imaginary parts of weak measurement statics can be obtained by replacing the cloning process with a partial swap operation. A controlled-swap operation combines both processes, making the complete weak measurement statistics accessible as a well-defined contribution to the joint probabilities of fully resolved projective measurements on the two output systems.

Computer simulation of random variables and vectors with arbitrary probability distribution laws

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bogdan, V. M.

1981-01-01

Assume that there is given an arbitrary n-dimensional probability distribution F. A recursive construction is found for a sequence of functions x sub 1 = f sub 1 (U sub 1, ..., U sub n), ..., x sub n = f sub n (U sub 1, ..., U sub n) such that if U sub 1, ..., U sub n are independent random variables having uniform distribution over the open interval (0,1), then the joint distribution of the variables x sub 1, ..., x sub n coincides with the distribution F. Since uniform independent random variables can be well simulated by means of a computer, this result allows one to simulate arbitrary n-random variables if their joint probability distribution is known.

Diagnostics for Confounding of Time-varying and Other Joint Exposures.

PubMed

Jackson, John W

2016-11-01

The effects of joint exposures (or exposure regimes) include those of adhering to assigned treatment versus placebo in a randomized controlled trial, duration of exposure in a cohort study, interactions between exposures, and direct effects of exposure, among others. Unlike the setting of a single point exposure (e.g., propensity score matching), there are few tools to describe confounding for joint exposures or how well a method resolves it. Investigators need tools that describe confounding in ways that are conceptually grounded and intuitive for those who read, review, and use applied research to guide policy. We revisit the implications of exchangeability conditions that hold in sequentially randomized trials, and the bias structure that motivates the use of g-methods, such as marginal structural models. From these, we develop covariate balance diagnostics for joint exposures that can (1) describe time-varying confounding, (2) assess whether covariates are predicted by prior exposures given their past, the indication for g-methods, and (3) describe residual confounding after inverse probability weighting. For each diagnostic, we present time-specific metrics that encompass a wide class of joint exposures, including regimes of multivariate time-varying exposures in censored data, with multivariate point exposures as a special case. We outline how to estimate these directly or with regression and how to average them over person-time. Using a simulated example, we show how these metrics can be presented graphically. This conceptually grounded framework can potentially aid the transparent design, analysis, and reporting of studies that examine joint exposures. We provide easy-to-use tools to implement it.

A Vision-Aided 3D Path Teaching Method before Narrow Butt Joint Welding

PubMed Central

Zeng, Jinle; Chang, Baohua; Du, Dong; Peng, Guodong; Chang, Shuhe; Hong, Yuxiang; Wang, Li; Shan, Jiguo

2017-01-01

For better welding quality, accurate path teaching for actuators must be achieved before welding. Due to machining errors, assembly errors, deformations, etc., the actual groove position may be different from the predetermined path. Therefore, it is significant to recognize the actual groove position using machine vision methods and perform an accurate path teaching process. However, during the teaching process of a narrow butt joint, the existing machine vision methods may fail because of poor adaptability, low resolution, and lack of 3D information. This paper proposes a 3D path teaching method for narrow butt joint welding. This method obtains two kinds of visual information nearly at the same time, namely 2D pixel coordinates of the groove in uniform lighting condition and 3D point cloud data of the workpiece surface in cross-line laser lighting condition. The 3D position and pose between the welding torch and groove can be calculated after information fusion. The image resolution can reach 12.5 μm. Experiments are carried out at an actuator speed of 2300 mm/min and groove width of less than 0.1 mm. The results show that this method is suitable for groove recognition before narrow butt joint welding and can be applied in path teaching fields of 3D complex components. PMID:28492481

Patient and implant survival following joint replacement because of metastatic bone disease

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Patients suffering from a pathological fracture or painful bony lesion because of metastatic bone disease often benefit from a total joint replacement. However, these are large operations in patients who are often weak. We examined the patient survival and complication rates after total joint replacement as the treatment for bone metastasis or hematological diseases of the extremities. Patients and methods 130 patients (mean age 64 (30–85) years, 76 females) received 140 joint replacements due to skeletal metastases (n = 114) or hematological disease (n = 16) during the period 2003–2008. 21 replaced joints were located in the upper extremities and 119 in the lower extremities. Clinical and survival data were extracted from patient files and various registers. Results The probability of patient survival was 51% (95% CI: 42–59) after 6 months, 39% (CI: 31–48) after 12 months, and 29% (CI: 21–37) after 24 months. The following surgical complications were seen (8 of which led to additional surgery): 2–5 hip dislocations (n = 8), deep infection (n = 3), peroneal palsy (n = 2), a shoulder prosthesis penetrating the skin (n = 1), and disassembly of an elbow prosthesis (n = 1). The probability of avoiding all kinds of surgery related to the implanted prosthesis was 94% (CI: 89–99) after 1 year and 92% (CI: 85–98) after 2 years. Conclusion Joint replacement operations because of metastatic bone disease do not appear to have given a poorer rate of patient survival than other types of surgical treatment, and the reoperation rate was low. PMID:23530874

A Probabilistic Approach to Predict Thermal Fatigue Life for Ball Grid Array Solder Joints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Helin; Wang, Kuisheng

2011-11-01

Numerous studies of the reliability of solder joints have been performed. Most life prediction models are limited to a deterministic approach. However, manufacturing induces uncertainty in the geometry parameters of solder joints, and the environmental temperature varies widely due to end-user diversity, creating uncertainties in the reliability of solder joints. In this study, a methodology for accounting for variation in the lifetime prediction for lead-free solder joints of ball grid array packages (PBGA) is demonstrated. The key aspects of the solder joint parameters and the cyclic temperature range related to reliability are involved. Probabilistic solutions of the inelastic strain range and thermal fatigue life based on the Engelmaier model are developed to determine the probability of solder joint failure. The results indicate that the standard deviation increases significantly when more random variations are involved. Using the probabilistic method, the influence of each variable on the thermal fatigue life is quantified. This information can be used to optimize product design and process validation acceptance criteria. The probabilistic approach creates the opportunity to identify the root causes of failed samples from product fatigue tests and field returns. The method can be applied to better understand how variation affects parameters of interest in an electronic package design with area array interconnections.

The impact of joint responses of devices in an airport security system.

PubMed

Nie, Xiaofeng; Batta, Rajan; Drury, Colin G; Lin, Li

2009-02-01

In this article, we consider a model for an airport security system in which the declaration of a threat is based on the joint responses of inspection devices. This is in contrast to the typical system in which each check station independently declares a passenger as having a threat or not having a threat. In our framework the declaration of threat/no-threat is based upon the passenger scores at the check stations he/she goes through. To do this we use concepts from classification theory in the field of multivariate statistics analysis and focus on the main objective of minimizing the expected cost of misclassification. The corresponding correct classification and misclassification probabilities can be obtained by using a simulation-based method. After computing the overall false alarm and false clear probabilities, we compare our joint response system with two other independently operated systems. A model that groups passengers in a manner that minimizes the false alarm probability while maintaining the false clear probability within specifications set by a security authority is considered. We also analyze the staffing needs at each check station for such an inspection scheme. An illustrative example is provided along with sensitivity analysis on key model parameters. A discussion is provided on some implementation issues, on the various assumptions made in the analysis, and on potential drawbacks of the approach.

Estimation of the four-wave mixing noise probability-density function by the multicanonical Monte Carlo method.

PubMed

Neokosmidis, Ioannis; Kamalakis, Thomas; Chipouras, Aristides; Sphicopoulos, Thomas

2005-01-01

The performance of high-powered wavelength-division multiplexed (WDM) optical networks can be severely degraded by four-wave-mixing- (FWM-) induced distortion. The multicanonical Monte Carlo method (MCMC) is used to calculate the probability-density function (PDF) of the decision variable of a receiver, limited by FWM noise. Compared with the conventional Monte Carlo method previously used to estimate this PDF, the MCMC method is much faster and can accurately estimate smaller error probabilities. The method takes into account the correlation between the components of the FWM noise, unlike the Gaussian model, which is shown not to provide accurate results.

An Improved 3D Joint Inversion Method of Potential Field Data Using Cross-Gradient Constraint and LSQR Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joulidehsar, Farshad; Moradzadeh, Ali; Doulati Ardejani, Faramarz

2018-06-01

The joint interpretation of two sets of geophysical data related to the same source is an appropriate method for decreasing non-uniqueness of the resulting models during inversion process. Among the available methods, a method based on using cross-gradient constraint combines two datasets is an efficient approach. This method, however, is time-consuming for 3D inversion and cannot provide an exact assessment of situation and extension of anomaly of interest. In this paper, the first attempt is to speed up the required calculation by substituting singular value decomposition by least-squares QR method to solve the large-scale kernel matrix of 3D inversion, more rapidly. Furthermore, to improve the accuracy of resulting models, a combination of depth-weighing matrix and compacted constraint, as automatic selection covariance of initial parameters, is used in the proposed inversion algorithm. This algorithm was developed in Matlab environment and first implemented on synthetic data. The 3D joint inversion of synthetic gravity and magnetic data shows a noticeable improvement in the results and increases the efficiency of algorithm for large-scale problems. Additionally, a real gravity and magnetic dataset of Jalalabad mine, in southeast of Iran was tested. The obtained results by the improved joint 3D inversion of cross-gradient along with compacted constraint showed a mineralised zone in depth interval of about 110-300 m which is in good agreement with the available drilling data. This is also a further confirmation on the accuracy and progress of the improved inversion algorithm.

a Probability-Based Statistical Method to Extract Water Body of TM Images with Missing Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lian, Shizhong; Chen, Jiangping; Luo, Minghai

2016-06-01

Water information cannot be accurately extracted using TM images because true information is lost in some images because of blocking clouds and missing data stripes, thereby water information cannot be accurately extracted. Water is continuously distributed in natural conditions; thus, this paper proposed a new method of water body extraction based on probability statistics to improve the accuracy of water information extraction of TM images with missing information. Different disturbing information of clouds and missing data stripes are simulated. Water information is extracted using global histogram matching, local histogram matching, and the probability-based statistical method in the simulated images. Experiments show that smaller Areal Error and higher Boundary Recall can be obtained using this method compared with the conventional methods.

A Comparison of EPI Sampling, Probability Sampling, and Compact Segment Sampling Methods for Micro and Small Enterprises

PubMed Central

Chao, Li-Wei; Szrek, Helena; Peltzer, Karl; Ramlagan, Shandir; Fleming, Peter; Leite, Rui; Magerman, Jesswill; Ngwenya, Godfrey B.; Pereira, Nuno Sousa; Behrman, Jere

2011-01-01

Finding an efficient method for sampling micro- and small-enterprises (MSEs) for research and statistical reporting purposes is a challenge in developing countries, where registries of MSEs are often nonexistent or outdated. This lack of a sampling frame creates an obstacle in finding a representative sample of MSEs. This study uses computer simulations to draw samples from a census of businesses and non-businesses in the Tshwane Municipality of South Africa, using three different sampling methods: the traditional probability sampling method, the compact segment sampling method, and the World Health Organization’s Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI) sampling method. Three mechanisms by which the methods could differ are tested, the proximity selection of respondents, the at-home selection of respondents, and the use of inaccurate probability weights. The results highlight the importance of revisits and accurate probability weights, but the lesser effect of proximity selection on the samples’ statistical properties. PMID:22582004

Improved decryption quality and security of a joint transform correlator-based encryption system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vilardy, Juan M.; Millán, María S.; Pérez-Cabré, Elisabet

2013-02-01

Some image encryption systems based on modified double random phase encoding and joint transform correlator architecture produce low quality decrypted images and are vulnerable to a variety of attacks. In this work, we analyse the algorithm of some reported methods that optically implement the double random phase encryption in a joint transform correlator. We show that it is possible to significantly improve the quality of the decrypted image by introducing a simple nonlinear operation in the encrypted function that contains the joint power spectrum. This nonlinearity also makes the system more resistant to chosen-plaintext attacks. We additionally explore the system resistance against this type of attack when a variety of probability density functions are used to generate the two random phase masks of the encryption-decryption process. Numerical results are presented and discussed.

Quasi-probabilities in conditioned quantum measurement and a geometric/statistical interpretation of Aharonov's weak value

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Jaeha; Tsutsui, Izumi

2017-05-01

We show that the joint behavior of an arbitrary pair of (generally noncommuting) quantum observables can be described by quasi-probabilities, which are an extended version of the standard probabilities used for describing the outcome of measurement for a single observable. The physical situations that require these quasi-probabilities arise when one considers quantum measurement of an observable conditioned by some other variable, with the notable example being the weak measurement employed to obtain Aharonov's weak value. Specifically, we present a general prescription for the construction of quasi-joint probability (QJP) distributions associated with a given combination of observables. These QJP distributions are introduced in two complementary approaches: one from a bottom-up, strictly operational construction realized by examining the mathematical framework of the conditioned measurement scheme, and the other from a top-down viewpoint realized by applying the results of the spectral theorem for normal operators and their Fourier transforms. It is then revealed that, for a pair of simultaneously measurable observables, the QJP distribution reduces to the unique standard joint probability distribution of the pair, whereas for a noncommuting pair there exists an inherent indefiniteness in the choice of such QJP distributions, admitting a multitude of candidates that may equally be used for describing the joint behavior of the pair. In the course of our argument, we find that the QJP distributions furnish the space of operators in the underlying Hilbert space with their characteristic geometric structures such that the orthogonal projections and inner products of observables can be given statistical interpretations as, respectively, “conditionings” and “correlations”. The weak value Aw for an observable A is then given a geometric/statistical interpretation as either the orthogonal projection of A onto the subspace generated by another observable B, or

Research on adaptive optics image restoration algorithm based on improved joint maximum a posteriori method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Lijuan; Li, Yang; Wang, Junnan; Liu, Ying

2018-03-01

In this paper, we propose a point spread function (PSF) reconstruction method and joint maximum a posteriori (JMAP) estimation method for the adaptive optics image restoration. Using the JMAP method as the basic principle, we establish the joint log likelihood function of multi-frame adaptive optics (AO) images based on the image Gaussian noise models. To begin with, combining the observed conditions and AO system characteristics, a predicted PSF model for the wavefront phase effect is developed; then, we build up iterative solution formulas of the AO image based on our proposed algorithm, addressing the implementation process of multi-frame AO images joint deconvolution method. We conduct a series of experiments on simulated and real degraded AO images to evaluate our proposed algorithm. Compared with the Wiener iterative blind deconvolution (Wiener-IBD) algorithm and Richardson-Lucy IBD algorithm, our algorithm has better restoration effects including higher peak signal-to-noise ratio ( PSNR) and Laplacian sum ( LS) value than the others. The research results have a certain application values for actual AO image restoration.

Concept for a fast analysis method of the energy dissipation at mechanical joints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolf, Alexander; Brosius, Alexander

2017-10-01

When designing hybrid parts and structures one major challenge is the design, production and quality assessment of the joining points. While the polymeric composites themselves have excellent material properties, the necessary joints are often the weak link in assembled structures. This paper presents a method of measuring and analysing the energy dissipation at mechanical joining points of hybrid parts. A simplified model is applied based on the characteristic response to different excitation frequencies and amplitudes. The dissipation from damage is the result of relative moments between joining partners und damaged fibres within the composite, whereas the visco-elastic material behaviour causes the intrinsic dissipation. The ambition is to transfer these research findings to the characterisation of mechanical joints in order to quickly assess the general quality of the joint with this non-destructive testing method. The inherent challenge for realising this method is the correct interpretation of the measured energy dissipation and its attribution to either a bad joining point or intrinsic material properties. In this paper the authors present the concept for energy dissipation measurements at different joining points. By inverse analysis a simplified fast semi-analytical model will be developed that allows for a quick basic quality assessment of a given joining point.

A parameters optimization method for planar joint clearance model and its application for dynamics simulation of reciprocating compressor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hai-yang, Zhao; Min-qiang, Xu; Jin-dong, Wang; Yong-bo, Li

2015-05-01

In order to improve the accuracy of dynamics response simulation for mechanism with joint clearance, a parameter optimization method for planar joint clearance contact force model was presented in this paper, and the optimized parameters were applied to the dynamics response simulation for mechanism with oversized joint clearance fault. By studying the effect of increased clearance on the parameters of joint clearance contact force model, the relation of model parameters between different clearances was concluded. Then the dynamic equation of a two-stage reciprocating compressor with four joint clearances was developed using Lagrange method, and a multi-body dynamic model built in ADAMS software was used to solve this equation. To obtain a simulated dynamic response much closer to that of experimental tests, the parameters of joint clearance model, instead of using the designed values, were optimized by genetic algorithms approach. Finally, the optimized parameters were applied to simulate the dynamics response of model with oversized joint clearance fault according to the concluded parameter relation. The dynamics response of experimental test verified the effectiveness of this application.

Probability of identification: a statistical model for the validation of qualitative botanical identification methods.

PubMed

LaBudde, Robert A; Harnly, James M

2012-01-01

A qualitative botanical identification method (BIM) is an analytical procedure that returns a binary result (1 = Identified, 0 = Not Identified). A BIM may be used by a buyer, manufacturer, or regulator to determine whether a botanical material being tested is the same as the target (desired) material, or whether it contains excessive nontarget (undesirable) material. The report describes the development and validation of studies for a BIM based on the proportion of replicates identified, or probability of identification (POI), as the basic observed statistic. The statistical procedures proposed for data analysis follow closely those of the probability of detection, and harmonize the statistical concepts and parameters between quantitative and qualitative method validation. Use of POI statistics also harmonizes statistical concepts for botanical, microbiological, toxin, and other analyte identification methods that produce binary results. The POI statistical model provides a tool for graphical representation of response curves for qualitative methods, reporting of descriptive statistics, and application of performance requirements. Single collaborator and multicollaborative study examples are given.

Dynamic Uncertain Causality Graph for Knowledge Representation and Probabilistic Reasoning: Directed Cyclic Graph and Joint Probability Distribution.

PubMed

Zhang, Qin

2015-07-01

Probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) such as Bayesian network (BN) have been widely applied in uncertain causality representation and probabilistic reasoning. Dynamic uncertain causality graph (DUCG) is a newly presented model of PGMs, which can be applied to fault diagnosis of large and complex industrial systems, disease diagnosis, and so on. The basic methodology of DUCG has been previously presented, in which only the directed acyclic graph (DAG) was addressed. However, the mathematical meaning of DUCG was not discussed. In this paper, the DUCG with directed cyclic graphs (DCGs) is addressed. In contrast, BN does not allow DCGs, as otherwise the conditional independence will not be satisfied. The inference algorithm for the DUCG with DCGs is presented, which not only extends the capabilities of DUCG from DAGs to DCGs but also enables users to decompose a large and complex DUCG into a set of small, simple sub-DUCGs, so that a large and complex knowledge base can be easily constructed, understood, and maintained. The basic mathematical definition of a complete DUCG with or without DCGs is proved to be a joint probability distribution (JPD) over a set of random variables. The incomplete DUCG as a part of a complete DUCG may represent a part of JPD. Examples are provided to illustrate the methodology.

A method to compute SEU fault probabilities in memory arrays with error correction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gercek, Gokhan

1994-01-01

With the increasing packing densities in VLSI technology, Single Event Upsets (SEU) due to cosmic radiations are becoming more of a critical issue in the design of space avionics systems. In this paper, a method is introduced to compute the fault (mishap) probability for a computer memory of size M words. It is assumed that a Hamming code is used for each word to provide single error correction. It is also assumed that every time a memory location is read, single errors are corrected. Memory is read randomly whose distribution is assumed to be known. In such a scenario, a mishap is defined as two SEU's corrupting the same memory location prior to a read. The paper introduces a method to compute the overall mishap probability for the entire memory for a mission duration of T hours.

Methods for Using Durable Adhesively Bonded Joints for Sandwich Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smeltzer, Stanley S., III (Inventor); Lundgren, Eric C. (Inventor)

2016-01-01

Systems, methods, and apparatus for increasing durability of adhesively bonded joints in a sandwich structure. Such systems, methods, and apparatus includes an first face sheet and an second face sheet as well as an insert structure, the insert structure having a first insert face sheet, a second insert face sheet, and an insert core material. In addition, sandwich core material is arranged between the first face sheet and the second face sheet. A primary bondline may be coupled to the face sheet(s) and the splice. Further, systems, methods, and apparatus of the present disclosure advantageously reduce the load, provide a redundant path, reduce structural fatigue, and/or increase fatigue life.

Methode d'identification parametrique pour la surveillance in situ des joints a recouvrement par propagation d'ondes vibratoires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Francoeur, Dany

Cette these de doctorat s'inscrit dans le cadre de projets CRIAQ (Consortium de recherche et d'innovation en aerospatiale du Quebec) orientes vers le developpement d'approches embarquees pour la detection de defauts dans des structures aeronautiques. L'originalite de cette these repose sur le developpement et la validation d'une nouvelle methode de detection, quantification et localisation d'une entaille dans une structure de joint a recouvrement par la propagation d'ondes vibratoires. La premiere partie expose l'etat des connaissances sur l'identification d'un defaut dans le contexte du Structural Health Monitoring (SHM), ainsi que la modelisation de joint a recouvrements. Le chapitre 3 developpe le modele de propagation d'onde d'un joint a recouvrement endommage par une entaille pour une onde de flexion dans la plage des moyennes frequences (10-50 kHz). A cette fin, un modele de transmission de ligne (TLM) est realise pour representer un joint unidimensionnel (1D). Ce modele 1D est ensuite adapte a un joint bi-dimensionnel (2D) en faisant l'hypothese d'un front d'onde plan incident et perpendiculaire au joint. Une methode d'identification parametrique est ensuite developpee pour permettre a la fois la calibration du modele du joint a recouvrement sain, la detection puis la caracterisation de l'entaille situee sur le joint. Cette methode est couplee a un algorithme qui permet une recherche exhaustive de tout l'espace parametrique. Cette technique permet d'extraire une zone d'incertitude reliee aux parametres du modele optimal. Une etude de sensibilite est egalement realisee sur l'identification. Plusieurs resultats de mesure sur des joints a recouvrements 1D et 2D sont realisees permettant ainsi l'etude de la repetabilite des resultats et la variabilite de differents cas d'endommagement. Les resultats de cette etude demontrent d'abord que la methode de detection proposee est tres efficace et permet de suivre la progression d'endommagement. De tres bons resultats

Factors affecting results of fluoroscopy-guided facet joint injection: Probable differences in the outcome of treatment between pure facet joint hypertrophy and concomitant diseases.

PubMed

Albayrak, Akif; Ozkul, Baris; Balioglu, Mehmet Bulent; Atici, Yunus; Gultekin, Muhammet Zeki; Albayrak, Merih Dilan

2016-01-01

Retrospective cohort study. Facet joints are considered a common source of chronic low-back pain. To determine whether pathogens related to the facet joint arthritis have any effect on treatment failure. Facet joint injection was applied to 94 patients treated at our hospital between 2011 and 2012 (mean age 59.5 years; 80 women and 14 men). For the purpose of analysis, the patients were divided into two groups. Patients who only had facet hypertrophy were placed in group A (47 patients, 41 women and 6 men, mean age 55.3 years) and patients who had any additional major pathology to facet hypertrophy were placed in group B (47 patients, 39 women and 8 men, mean age 58.9 years). Injections were applied around the facet joint under surgical conditions utilizing fluoroscopy device guidance. A mixture of methylprednisolone and lidocaine was used as the injection ingredient. In terms of Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) and visual analog scale (VAS) scores, no significant difference was found between preinjection and immediate postinjection values in both groups, and the scores of group A patients were significantly lower (P < 0.005) compared with that of group B patients at the end of the third, sixth, and twelfth month. For low-back pain caused by facet hypertrophy, steroid injection around the facet joint is an effective treatment, but if there is an existing major pathology, it is not as effective.

Structural Reliability Using Probability Density Estimation Methods Within NESSUS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chamis, Chrisos C. (Technical Monitor); Godines, Cody Ric

2003-01-01

A reliability analysis studies a mathematical model of a physical system taking into account uncertainties of design variables and common results are estimations of a response density, which also implies estimations of its parameters. Some common density parameters include the mean value, the standard deviation, and specific percentile(s) of the response, which are measures of central tendency, variation, and probability regions, respectively. Reliability analyses are important since the results can lead to different designs by calculating the probability of observing safe responses in each of the proposed designs. All of this is done at the expense of added computational time as compared to a single deterministic analysis which will result in one value of the response out of many that make up the density of the response. Sampling methods, such as monte carlo (MC) and latin hypercube sampling (LHS), can be used to perform reliability analyses and can compute nonlinear response density parameters even if the response is dependent on many random variables. Hence, both methods are very robust; however, they are computationally expensive to use in the estimation of the response density parameters. Both methods are 2 of 13 stochastic methods that are contained within the Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress (NESSUS) program. NESSUS is a probabilistic finite element analysis (FEA) program that was developed through funding from NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC). It has the additional capability of being linked to other analysis programs; therefore, probabilistic fluid dynamics, fracture mechanics, and heat transfer are only a few of what is possible with this software. The LHS method is the newest addition to the stochastic methods within NESSUS. Part of this work was to enhance NESSUS with the LHS method. The new LHS module is complete, has been successfully integrated with NESSUS, and been used to study four different test cases that have been

Modeling Finite-Time Failure Probabilities in Risk Analysis Applications.

PubMed

Dimitrova, Dimitrina S; Kaishev, Vladimir K; Zhao, Shouqi

2015-10-01

In this article, we introduce a framework for analyzing the risk of systems failure based on estimating the failure probability. The latter is defined as the probability that a certain risk process, characterizing the operations of a system, reaches a possibly time-dependent critical risk level within a finite-time interval. Under general assumptions, we define two dually connected models for the risk process and derive explicit expressions for the failure probability and also the joint probability of the time of the occurrence of failure and the excess of the risk process over the risk level. We illustrate how these probabilistic models and results can be successfully applied in several important areas of risk analysis, among which are systems reliability, inventory management, flood control via dam management, infectious disease spread, and financial insolvency. Numerical illustrations are also presented. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Simplified Computation for Nonparametric Windows Method of Probability Density Function Estimation.

PubMed

Joshi, Niranjan; Kadir, Timor; Brady, Michael

2011-08-01

Recently, Kadir and Brady proposed a method for estimating probability density functions (PDFs) for digital signals which they call the Nonparametric (NP) Windows method. The method involves constructing a continuous space representation of the discrete space and sampled signal by using a suitable interpolation method. NP Windows requires only a small number of observed signal samples to estimate the PDF and is completely data driven. In this short paper, we first develop analytical formulae to obtain the NP Windows PDF estimates for 1D, 2D, and 3D signals, for different interpolation methods. We then show that the original procedure to calculate the PDF estimate can be significantly simplified and made computationally more efficient by a judicious choice of the frame of reference. We have also outlined specific algorithmic details of the procedures enabling quick implementation. Our reformulation of the original concept has directly demonstrated a close link between the NP Windows method and the Kernel Density Estimator.

Investigation of 2-stage meta-analysis methods for joint longitudinal and time-to-event data through simulation and real data application.

PubMed

Sudell, Maria; Tudur Smith, Catrin; Gueyffier, François; Kolamunnage-Dona, Ruwanthi

2018-04-15

Joint modelling of longitudinal and time-to-event data is often preferred over separate longitudinal or time-to-event analyses as it can account for study dropout, error in longitudinally measured covariates, and correlation between longitudinal and time-to-event outcomes. The joint modelling literature focuses mainly on the analysis of single studies with no methods currently available for the meta-analysis of joint model estimates from multiple studies. We propose a 2-stage method for meta-analysis of joint model estimates. These methods are applied to the INDANA dataset to combine joint model estimates of systolic blood pressure with time to death, time to myocardial infarction, and time to stroke. Results are compared to meta-analyses of separate longitudinal or time-to-event models. A simulation study is conducted to contrast separate versus joint analyses over a range of scenarios. Using the real dataset, similar results were obtained by using the separate and joint analyses. However, the simulation study indicated a benefit of use of joint rather than separate methods in a meta-analytic setting where association exists between the longitudinal and time-to-event outcomes. Where evidence of association between longitudinal and time-to-event outcomes exists, results from joint models over standalone analyses should be pooled in 2-stage meta-analyses. © 2017 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A joint sparse representation-based method for double-trial evoked potentials estimation.

PubMed

Yu, Nannan; Liu, Haikuan; Wang, Xiaoyan; Lu, Hanbing

2013-12-01

In this paper, we present a novel approach to solving an evoked potentials estimating problem. Generally, the evoked potentials in two consecutive trials obtained by repeated identical stimuli of the nerves are extremely similar. In order to trace evoked potentials, we propose a joint sparse representation-based double-trial evoked potentials estimation method, taking full advantage of this similarity. The estimation process is performed in three stages: first, according to the similarity of evoked potentials and the randomness of a spontaneous electroencephalogram, the two consecutive observations of evoked potentials are considered as superpositions of the common component and the unique components; second, making use of their characteristics, the two sparse dictionaries are constructed; and finally, we apply the joint sparse representation method in order to extract the common component of double-trial observations, instead of the evoked potential in each trial. A series of experiments carried out on simulated and human test responses confirmed the superior performance of our method. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Marker-based reconstruction of the kinematics of a chain of segments: a new method that incorporates joint kinematic constraints.

PubMed

Klous, Miriam; Klous, Sander

2010-07-01

The aim of skin-marker-based motion analysis is to reconstruct the motion of a kinematical model from noisy measured motion of skin markers. Existing kinematic models for reconstruction of chains of segments can be divided into two categories: analytical methods that do not take joint constraints into account and numerical global optimization methods that do take joint constraints into account but require numerical optimization of a large number of degrees of freedom, especially when the number of segments increases. In this study, a new and largely analytical method for a chain of rigid bodies is presented, interconnected in spherical joints (chain-method). In this method, the number of generalized coordinates to be determined through numerical optimization is three, irrespective of the number of segments. This new method is compared with the analytical method of Veldpaus et al. [1988, "A Least-Squares Algorithm for the Equiform Transformation From Spatial Marker Co-Ordinates," J. Biomech., 21, pp. 45-54] (Veldpaus-method, a method of the first category) and the numerical global optimization method of Lu and O'Connor [1999, "Bone Position Estimation From Skin-Marker Co-Ordinates Using Global Optimization With Joint Constraints," J. Biomech., 32, pp. 129-134] (Lu-method, a method of the second category) regarding the effects of continuous noise simulating skin movement artifacts and regarding systematic errors in joint constraints. The study is based on simulated data to allow a comparison of the results of the different algorithms with true (noise- and error-free) marker locations. Results indicate a clear trend that accuracy for the chain-method is higher than the Veldpaus-method and similar to the Lu-method. Because large parts of the equations in the chain-method can be solved analytically, the speed of convergence in this method is substantially higher than in the Lu-method. With only three segments, the average number of required iterations with the chain-method

Optimal methods for fitting probability distributions to propagule retention time in studies of zoochorous dispersal.

PubMed

Viana, Duarte S; Santamaría, Luis; Figuerola, Jordi

2016-02-01

Propagule retention time is a key factor in determining propagule dispersal distance and the shape of "seed shadows". Propagules dispersed by animal vectors are either ingested and retained in the gut until defecation or attached externally to the body until detachment. Retention time is a continuous variable, but it is commonly measured at discrete time points, according to pre-established sampling time-intervals. Although parametric continuous distributions have been widely fitted to these interval-censored data, the performance of different fitting methods has not been evaluated. To investigate the performance of five different fitting methods, we fitted parametric probability distributions to typical discretized retention-time data with known distribution using as data-points either the lower, mid or upper bounds of sampling intervals, as well as the cumulative distribution of observed values (using either maximum likelihood or non-linear least squares for parameter estimation); then compared the estimated and original distributions to assess the accuracy of each method. We also assessed the robustness of these methods to variations in the sampling procedure (sample size and length of sampling time-intervals). Fittings to the cumulative distribution performed better for all types of parametric distributions (lognormal, gamma and Weibull distributions) and were more robust to variations in sample size and sampling time-intervals. These estimated distributions had negligible deviations of up to 0.045 in cumulative probability of retention times (according to the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic) in relation to original distributions from which propagule retention time was simulated, supporting the overall accuracy of this fitting method. In contrast, fitting the sampling-interval bounds resulted in greater deviations that ranged from 0.058 to 0.273 in cumulative probability of retention times, which may introduce considerable biases in parameter estimates. We

Investigation of 2‐stage meta‐analysis methods for joint longitudinal and time‐to‐event data through simulation and real data application

PubMed Central

Tudur Smith, Catrin; Gueyffier, François; Kolamunnage‐Dona, Ruwanthi

2017-01-01

Background Joint modelling of longitudinal and time‐to‐event data is often preferred over separate longitudinal or time‐to‐event analyses as it can account for study dropout, error in longitudinally measured covariates, and correlation between longitudinal and time‐to‐event outcomes. The joint modelling literature focuses mainly on the analysis of single studies with no methods currently available for the meta‐analysis of joint model estimates from multiple studies. Methods We propose a 2‐stage method for meta‐analysis of joint model estimates. These methods are applied to the INDANA dataset to combine joint model estimates of systolic blood pressure with time to death, time to myocardial infarction, and time to stroke. Results are compared to meta‐analyses of separate longitudinal or time‐to‐event models. A simulation study is conducted to contrast separate versus joint analyses over a range of scenarios. Results Using the real dataset, similar results were obtained by using the separate and joint analyses. However, the simulation study indicated a benefit of use of joint rather than separate methods in a meta‐analytic setting where association exists between the longitudinal and time‐to‐event outcomes. Conclusions Where evidence of association between longitudinal and time‐to‐event outcomes exists, results from joint models over standalone analyses should be pooled in 2‐stage meta‐analyses. PMID:29250814

A new method of scoring radiographic change in rheumatoid arthritis.

PubMed

Rau, R; Wassenberg, S; Herborn, G; Stucki, G; Gebler, A

1998-11-01

To test the reliability and to define the minimal detectable change of a new radiographic scoring method in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Following the recommendations of an expert panel a new radiographic scoring method was defined. It scores 38 joints [all proximal interphalangeal (PIP) and metacarpophalangeal joints, 4 sites in the wrists, IP of the great toes, and metatarsophalangeals 2 to 5], regarding only the amount of joint surface destruction on a 0 to 5 scale for each joint. Each grade represents 20% of joint surface destruction. The method was tested by 5 readers on a set of 7 serial radiographs of hands and forefeet of 20 patients with progressive and destructive RA. Analysis of variance was performed, as it provides the best information about the capability of a method to detect real change and to define its sensitivity according to the minimal detectable change. Analysis of variance proved a high probability that the readers found real change with a ratio of intrapatient to intrareader standard deviation of 2.6. It also confirmed that one reader could detect a change of 3.5% of the total score with a probability of 95% and that different readers agreed upon a change of 4.6%. Inexperienced readers performed with comparable results to experienced readers. The time required for the reading averaged less than 10 minutes for the scoring of one set. The new radiographic scoring method proved to be reliable, precise, and easy to learn, with reasonable cost. Compared to published data, it may provide better results than the widely used Larsen score. These features favor our new method for use in clinical trials and in longterm observational studies in RA.

Joint hyperlaxity prevents relapses in clubfeet treated by Ponseti method-preliminary results.

PubMed

Cosma, Dan Ionuţ; Corbu, Andrei; Nistor, Dan Viorel; Todor, Adrian; Valeanu, Madalina; Morcuende, Jose; Man, Sorin

2018-05-07

The aim of the study was to evaluate the role of joint hyperlaxity (by Beighton score) as a protective factor for clubfoot relapse. Patients with idiopathic clubfoot treated with the Ponseti method between January 2004 and December 2012, without other congenital foot deformity, and not previously treated by open surgery were included in either the Relapse group (n = 23) if it was a clubfoot relapse or the Control group (n = 19) if no relapse was noted. Joint laxity was evaluated using the Beighton score at the latest follow-up against the Normal group (n = 22, children matched by sex and age without clubfoot deformity). We found a significantly higher joint laxity in the Control group (4.58, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.1-7.06) as compared to the Relapse (3.17, 95% CI: 1.53-4.81, p = 0.032) and Normal (3.14, 95% CI: 1.78-4.5, p = 0.03) groups. The univariate logistic regression showed a 5.28-times increase in the risk of relapse for a Beighton score lower than 4/9 points (odds ratio = 5.28; 95% CI = 1.29-21.5; p = 0.018). Joint hyperlaxity could be a protective factor for clubfoot relapse.

Methods for estimating drought streamflow probabilities for Virginia streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Austin, Samuel H.

2014-01-01

Maximum likelihood logistic regression model equations used to estimate drought flow probabilities for Virginia streams are presented for 259 hydrologic basins in Virginia. Winter streamflows were used to estimate the likelihood of streamflows during the subsequent drought-prone summer months. The maximum likelihood logistic regression models identify probable streamflows from 5 to 8 months in advance. More than 5 million streamflow daily values collected over the period of record (January 1, 1900 through May 16, 2012) were compiled and analyzed over a minimum 10-year (maximum 112-year) period of record. The analysis yielded the 46,704 equations with statistically significant fit statistics and parameter ranges published in two tables in this report. These model equations produce summer month (July, August, and September) drought flow threshold probabilities as a function of streamflows during the previous winter months (November, December, January, and February). Example calculations are provided, demonstrating how to use the equations to estimate probable streamflows as much as 8 months in advance.

A Review of Natural Joint Systems and Numerical Investigation of Bio-Inspired GFRP-to-Steel Joints

PubMed Central

Avgoulas, Evangelos I.; Sutcliffe, Michael P. F.

2016-01-01

There are a great variety of joint types used in nature which can inspire engineering joints. In order to design such biomimetic joints, it is at first important to understand how biological joints work. A comprehensive literature review, considering natural joints from a mechanical point of view, was undertaken. This was used to develop a taxonomy based on the different methods/functions that nature successfully uses to attach dissimilar tissues. One of the key methods that nature uses to join dissimilar materials is a transitional zone of stiffness at the insertion site. This method was used to propose bio-inspired solutions with a transitional zone of stiffness at the joint site for several glass fibre reinforced plastic (GFRP) to steel adhesively bonded joint configurations. The transition zone was used to reduce the material stiffness mismatch of the joint parts. A numerical finite element model was used to identify the optimum variation in material stiffness that minimises potential failure of the joint. The best bio-inspired joints showed a 118% increase of joint strength compared to the standard joints. PMID:28773688

A Review of Natural Joint Systems and Numerical Investigation of Bio-Inspired GFRP-to-Steel Joints.

PubMed

Avgoulas, Evangelos I; Sutcliffe, Michael P F

2016-07-12

There are a great variety of joint types used in nature which can inspire engineering joints. In order to design such biomimetic joints, it is at first important to understand how biological joints work. A comprehensive literature review, considering natural joints from a mechanical point of view, was undertaken. This was used to develop a taxonomy based on the different methods/functions that nature successfully uses to attach dissimilar tissues. One of the key methods that nature uses to join dissimilar materials is a transitional zone of stiffness at the insertion site. This method was used to propose bio-inspired solutions with a transitional zone of stiffness at the joint site for several glass fibre reinforced plastic (GFRP) to steel adhesively bonded joint configurations. The transition zone was used to reduce the material stiffness mismatch of the joint parts. A numerical finite element model was used to identify the optimum variation in material stiffness that minimises potential failure of the joint. The best bio-inspired joints showed a 118% increase of joint strength compared to the standard joints.

Statistical learning of action: the role of conditional probability.

PubMed

Meyer, Meredith; Baldwin, Dare

2011-12-01

Identification of distinct units within a continuous flow of human action is fundamental to action processing. Such segmentation may rest in part on statistical learning. In a series of four experiments, we examined what types of statistics people can use to segment a continuous stream involving many brief, goal-directed action elements. The results of Experiment 1 showed no evidence for sensitivity to conditional probability, whereas Experiment 2 displayed learning based on joint probability. In Experiment 3, we demonstrated that additional exposure to the input failed to engender sensitivity to conditional probability. However, the results of Experiment 4 showed that a subset of adults-namely, those more successful at identifying actions that had been seen more frequently than comparison sequences-were also successful at learning conditional-probability statistics. These experiments help to clarify the mechanisms subserving processing of intentional action, and they highlight important differences from, as well as similarities to, prior studies of statistical learning in other domains, including language.

Novel joint selection methods can reduce sample size for rheumatoid arthritis clinical trials with ultrasound endpoints.

PubMed

Allen, John C; Thumboo, Julian; Lye, Weng Kit; Conaghan, Philip G; Chew, Li-Ching; Tan, York Kiat

2018-03-01

To determine whether novel methods of selecting joints through (i) ultrasonography (individualized-ultrasound [IUS] method), or (ii) ultrasonography and clinical examination (individualized-composite-ultrasound [ICUS] method) translate into smaller rheumatoid arthritis (RA) clinical trial sample sizes when compared to existing methods utilizing predetermined joint sites for ultrasonography. Cohen's effect size (ES) was estimated (ES^) and a 95% CI (ES^L, ES^U) calculated on a mean change in 3-month total inflammatory score for each method. Corresponding 95% CIs [nL(ES^U), nU(ES^L)] were obtained on a post hoc sample size reflecting the uncertainty in ES^. Sample size calculations were based on a one-sample t-test as the patient numbers needed to provide 80% power at α = 0.05 to reject a null hypothesis H 0 : ES = 0 versus alternative hypotheses H 1 : ES = ES^, ES = ES^L and ES = ES^U. We aimed to provide point and interval estimates on projected sample sizes for future studies reflecting the uncertainty in our study ES^S. Twenty-four treated RA patients were followed up for 3 months. Utilizing the 12-joint approach and existing methods, the post hoc sample size (95% CI) was 22 (10-245). Corresponding sample sizes using ICUS and IUS were 11 (7-40) and 11 (6-38), respectively. Utilizing a seven-joint approach, the corresponding sample sizes using ICUS and IUS methods were nine (6-24) and 11 (6-35), respectively. Our pilot study suggests that sample size for RA clinical trials with ultrasound endpoints may be reduced using the novel methods, providing justification for larger studies to confirm these observations. © 2017 Asia Pacific League of Associations for Rheumatology and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

"Combined Diagnostic Tool" APPlication to a Retrospective Series of Patients Undergoing Total Joint Revision Surgery.

PubMed

Gallazzi, Enrico; Drago, Lorenzo; Baldini, Andrea; Stockley, Ian; George, David A; Scarponi, Sara; Romanò, Carlo L

2017-01-01

Background : Differentiating between septic and aseptic joint prosthesis may be challenging, since no single test is able to confirm or rule out infection. The choice and interpretation of the panel of tests performed in any case often relies on empirical evaluation and poorly validated scores. The "Combined Diagnostic Tool (CDT)" App, a smartphone application for iOS, was developed to allow to automatically calculate the probability of having a of periprosthetic joint infection, on the basis of the relative sensitivity and specificity of the positive and negative diagnostic tests performed in any given patient. Objective : The aim of the present study was to apply the CDT software to investigate the ability of the tests routinely performed in three high-volume European centers to diagnose a periprosthetic infection. Methods : This three-center retrospective study included 120 consecutive patients undergoing total hip or knee revision, and included 65 infected patients (Group A) and 55 patients without infection (Group B). The following parameters were evaluated: number and type of positive and negative diagnostic tests performed pre-, intra- and post-operatively and resultant probability calculated by the CDT App of having a peri-prosthetic joint infection, based on pre-, intra- and post-operative combined tests. Results : Serological tests were the most common performed, with an average 2.7 tests per patient for Group A and 2.2 for Group B, followed by joint aspiration (0.9 and 0.8 tests per patient, respectively) and imaging techniques (0.5 and 0.2 test per patient). Mean CDT App calculated probability of having an infection based on pre-operative tests was 79.4% for patients in Group A and 35.7 in Group B. Twenty-nine patients in Group A had > 10% chance of not having an infection, and 29 of Group B had > 10% chance of having an infection. Conclusion : This is the first retrospective study focused on investigating the number and type of tests commonly performed

A short walk in quantum probability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hudson, Robin

2018-04-01

This is a personal survey of aspects of quantum probability related to the Heisenberg commutation relation for canonical pairs. Using the failure, in general, of non-negativity of the Wigner distribution for canonical pairs to motivate a more satisfactory quantum notion of joint distribution, we visit a central limit theorem for such pairs and a resulting family of quantum planar Brownian motions which deform the classical planar Brownian motion, together with a corresponding family of quantum stochastic areas. This article is part of the themed issue `Hilbert's sixth problem'.

A short walk in quantum probability.

PubMed

Hudson, Robin

2018-04-28

This is a personal survey of aspects of quantum probability related to the Heisenberg commutation relation for canonical pairs. Using the failure, in general, of non-negativity of the Wigner distribution for canonical pairs to motivate a more satisfactory quantum notion of joint distribution, we visit a central limit theorem for such pairs and a resulting family of quantum planar Brownian motions which deform the classical planar Brownian motion, together with a corresponding family of quantum stochastic areas.This article is part of the themed issue 'Hilbert's sixth problem'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Naive Probability: Model-Based Estimates of Unique Events.

PubMed

Khemlani, Sangeet S; Lotstein, Max; Johnson-Laird, Philip N

2015-08-01

We describe a dual-process theory of how individuals estimate the probabilities of unique events, such as Hillary Clinton becoming U.S. President. It postulates that uncertainty is a guide to improbability. In its computer implementation, an intuitive system 1 simulates evidence in mental models and forms analog non-numerical representations of the magnitude of degrees of belief. This system has minimal computational power and combines evidence using a small repertoire of primitive operations. It resolves the uncertainty of divergent evidence for single events, for conjunctions of events, and for inclusive disjunctions of events, by taking a primitive average of non-numerical probabilities. It computes conditional probabilities in a tractable way, treating the given event as evidence that may be relevant to the probability of the dependent event. A deliberative system 2 maps the resulting representations into numerical probabilities. With access to working memory, it carries out arithmetical operations in combining numerical estimates. Experiments corroborated the theory's predictions. Participants concurred in estimates of real possibilities. They violated the complete joint probability distribution in the predicted ways, when they made estimates about conjunctions: P(A), P(B), P(A and B), disjunctions: P(A), P(B), P(A or B or both), and conditional probabilities P(A), P(B), P(B|A). They were faster to estimate the probabilities of compound propositions when they had already estimated the probabilities of each of their components. We discuss the implications of these results for theories of probabilistic reasoning. © 2014 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

A concise evidence-based physical examination for diagnosis of acromioclavicular joint pathology: a systematic review.

PubMed

Krill, Michael K; Rosas, Samuel; Kwon, KiHyun; Dakkak, Andrew; Nwachukwu, Benedict U; McCormick, Frank

2018-02-01

The clinical examination of the shoulder joint is an undervalued diagnostic tool for evaluating acromioclavicular (AC) joint pathology. Applying evidence-based clinical tests enables providers to make an accurate diagnosis and minimize costly imaging procedures and potential delays in care. The purpose of this study was to create a decision tree analysis enabling simple and accurate diagnosis of AC joint pathology. A systematic review of the Medline, Ovid and Cochrane Review databases was performed to identify level one and two diagnostic studies evaluating clinical tests for AC joint pathology. Individual test characteristics were combined in series and in parallel to improve sensitivities and specificities. A secondary analysis utilized subjective pre-test probabilities to create a clinical decision tree algorithm with post-test probabilities. The optimal special test combination to screen and confirm AC joint pathology combined Paxinos sign and O'Brien's Test, with a specificity of 95.8% when performed in series; whereas, Paxinos sign and Hawkins-Kennedy Test demonstrated a sensitivity of 93.7% when performed in parallel. Paxinos sign and O'Brien's Test demonstrated the greatest positive likelihood ratio (2.71); whereas, Paxinos sign and Hawkins-Kennedy Test reported the lowest negative likelihood ratio (0.35). No combination of special tests performed in series or in parallel creates more than a small impact on post-test probabilities to screen or confirm AC joint pathology. Paxinos sign and O'Brien's Test is the only special test combination that has a small and sometimes important impact when used both in series and in parallel. Physical examination testing is not beneficial for diagnosis of AC joint pathology when pretest probability is unequivocal. In these instances, it is of benefit to proceed with procedural tests to evaluate AC joint pathology. Ultrasound-guided corticosteroid injections are diagnostic and therapeutic. An ultrasound-guided AC joint

Joint modeling of longitudinal data and discrete-time survival outcome.

PubMed

Qiu, Feiyou; Stein, Catherine M; Elston, Robert C

2016-08-01

A predictive joint shared parameter model is proposed for discrete time-to-event and longitudinal data. A discrete survival model with frailty and a generalized linear mixed model for the longitudinal data are joined to predict the probability of events. This joint model focuses on predicting discrete time-to-event outcome, taking advantage of repeated measurements. We show that the probability of an event in a time window can be more precisely predicted by incorporating the longitudinal measurements. The model was investigated by comparison with a two-step model and a discrete-time survival model. Results from both a study on the occurrence of tuberculosis and simulated data show that the joint model is superior to the other models in discrimination ability, especially as the latent variables related to both survival times and the longitudinal measurements depart from 0. © The Author(s) 2013.

Cluster membership probability: polarimetric approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Medhi, Biman J.; Tamura, Motohide

2013-04-01

Interstellar polarimetric data of the six open clusters Hogg 15, NGC 6611, NGC 5606, NGC 6231, NGC 5749 and NGC 6250 have been used to estimate the membership probability for the stars within them. For proper-motion member stars, the membership probability estimated using the polarimetric data is in good agreement with the proper-motion cluster membership probability. However, for proper-motion non-member stars, the membership probability estimated by the polarimetric method is in total disagreement with the proper-motion cluster membership probability. The inconsistencies in the determined memberships may be because of the fundamental differences between the two methods of determination: one is based on stellar proper motion in space and the other is based on selective extinction of the stellar output by the asymmetric aligned dust grains present in the interstellar medium. The results and analysis suggest that the scatter of the Stokes vectors q (per cent) and u (per cent) for the proper-motion member stars depends on the interstellar and intracluster differential reddening in the open cluster. It is found that this method could be used to estimate the cluster membership probability if we have additional polarimetric and photometric information for a star to identify it as a probable member/non-member of a particular cluster, such as the maximum wavelength value (λmax), the unit weight error of the fit (σ1), the dispersion in the polarimetric position angles (overline{ɛ }), reddening (E(B - V)) or the differential intracluster reddening (ΔE(B - V)). This method could also be used to estimate the membership probability of known member stars having no membership probability as well as to resolve disagreements about membership among different proper-motion surveys.

Probability of Detection (POD) as a statistical model for the validation of qualitative methods.

PubMed

Wehling, Paul; LaBudde, Robert A; Brunelle, Sharon L; Nelson, Maria T

2011-01-01

A statistical model is presented for use in validation of qualitative methods. This model, termed Probability of Detection (POD), harmonizes the statistical concepts and parameters between quantitative and qualitative method validation. POD characterizes method response with respect to concentration as a continuous variable. The POD model provides a tool for graphical representation of response curves for qualitative methods. In addition, the model allows comparisons between candidate and reference methods, and provides calculations of repeatability, reproducibility, and laboratory effects from collaborative study data. Single laboratory study and collaborative study examples are given.

Time-lapse joint AVO inversion using generalized linear method based on exact Zoeppritz equations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhi, Longxiao; Gu, Hanming

2018-03-01

The conventional method of time-lapse AVO (Amplitude Versus Offset) inversion is mainly based on the approximate expression of Zoeppritz equations. Though the approximate expression is concise and convenient to use, it has certain limitations. For example, its application condition is that the difference of elastic parameters between the upper medium and lower medium is little and the incident angle is small. In addition, the inversion of density is not stable. Therefore, we develop the method of time-lapse joint AVO inversion based on exact Zoeppritz equations. In this method, we apply exact Zoeppritz equations to calculate the reflection coefficient of PP wave. And in the construction of objective function for inversion, we use Taylor series expansion to linearize the inversion problem. Through the joint AVO inversion of seismic data in baseline survey and monitor survey, we can obtain the P-wave velocity, S-wave velocity, density in baseline survey and their time-lapse changes simultaneously. We can also estimate the oil saturation change according to inversion results. Compared with the time-lapse difference inversion, the joint inversion doesn't need certain assumptions and can estimate more parameters simultaneously. It has a better applicability. Meanwhile, by using the generalized linear method, the inversion is easily implemented and its calculation cost is small. We use the theoretical model to generate synthetic seismic records to test and analyze the influence of random noise. The results can prove the availability and anti-noise-interference ability of our method. We also apply the inversion to actual field data and prove the feasibility of our method in actual situation.

Time- and temperature-dependent failures of a bonded joint

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sihn, Sangwook

-temperature equivalence and the residual strength degradation model enables us to estimate the fatigue life of the bonded joint at different load levels, frequencies and temperatures with a certain probability. A numerical example shows how to apply the life estimation method to a structure subjected to a random load history by rainflow cycle counting.

Calibrating random forests for probability estimation.

PubMed

Dankowski, Theresa; Ziegler, Andreas

2016-09-30

Probabilities can be consistently estimated using random forests. It is, however, unclear how random forests should be updated to make predictions for other centers or at different time points. In this work, we present two approaches for updating random forests for probability estimation. The first method has been proposed by Elkan and may be used for updating any machine learning approach yielding consistent probabilities, so-called probability machines. The second approach is a new strategy specifically developed for random forests. Using the terminal nodes, which represent conditional probabilities, the random forest is first translated to logistic regression models. These are, in turn, used for re-calibration. The two updating strategies were compared in a simulation study and are illustrated with data from the German Stroke Study Collaboration. In most simulation scenarios, both methods led to similar improvements. In the simulation scenario in which the stricter assumptions of Elkan's method were not met, the logistic regression-based re-calibration approach for random forests outperformed Elkan's method. It also performed better on the stroke data than Elkan's method. The strength of Elkan's method is its general applicability to any probability machine. However, if the strict assumptions underlying this approach are not met, the logistic regression-based approach is preferable for updating random forests for probability estimation. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

An efficient multi-objective optimization method for water quality sensor placement within water distribution systems considering contamination probability variations.

PubMed

He, Guilin; Zhang, Tuqiao; Zheng, Feifei; Zhang, Qingzhou

2018-06-20

Water quality security within water distribution systems (WDSs) has been an important issue due to their inherent vulnerability associated with contamination intrusion. This motivates intensive studies to identify optimal water quality sensor placement (WQSP) strategies, aimed to timely/effectively detect (un)intentional intrusion events. However, these available WQSP optimization methods have consistently presumed that each WDS node has an equal contamination probability. While being simple in implementation, this assumption may do not conform to the fact that the nodal contamination probability may be significantly regionally varied owing to variations in population density and user properties. Furthermore, the low computational efficiency is another important factor that has seriously hampered the practical applications of the currently available WQSP optimization approaches. To address these two issues, this paper proposes an efficient multi-objective WQSP optimization method to explicitly account for contamination probability variations. Four different contamination probability functions (CPFs) are proposed to represent the potential variations of nodal contamination probabilities within the WDS. Two real-world WDSs are used to demonstrate the utility of the proposed method. Results show that WQSP strategies can be significantly affected by the choice of the CPF. For example, when the proposed method is applied to the large case study with the CPF accounting for user properties, the event detection probabilities of the resultant solutions are approximately 65%, while these values are around 25% for the traditional approach, and such design solutions are achieved approximately 10,000 times faster than the traditional method. This paper provides an alternative method to identify optimal WQSP solutions for the WDS, and also builds knowledge regarding the impacts of different CPFs on sensor deployments. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Probable Explanation for the Low Friction of Natural Joints.

PubMed

Pawlak, Zenon; Urbaniak, Wieslaw; Hagner-Derengowska, Magdalena; Hagner, Wojciech

2015-04-01

The surface of an articular cartilage, coated with phospholipid (PL) bilayers, plays an important role in its lubrication and movement. Intact (normal) and depleted surfaces of the joint were modelled and the pH influence on the surface interfacial energy, wettability and friction were investigated. In the experiments, the deterioration of the PL bilayer was controlled by its wettability and the applied friction. The surrounding fluid of an undamaged articular cartilage, the synovial fluid, has a pH value of approximately 7.4. Buffer solutions were formulated to represent the synovial fluid with various pH values. It was found that the surface interfacial energy was stabilised at its lowest values when the pH varied between 6.5 and 9.5. These results suggested that as the PL bilayers deteriorated, the hydration repulsion mechanism became less effective as friction increased. The decreased number of bilayers changed the wettability and lowered PL lubricant properties.

A probability space for quantum models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lemmens, L. F.

2017-06-01

A probability space contains a set of outcomes, a collection of events formed by subsets of the set of outcomes and probabilities defined for all events. A reformulation in terms of propositions allows to use the maximum entropy method to assign the probabilities taking some constraints into account. The construction of a probability space for quantum models is determined by the choice of propositions, choosing the constraints and making the probability assignment by the maximum entropy method. This approach shows, how typical quantum distributions such as Maxwell-Boltzmann, Fermi-Dirac and Bose-Einstein are partly related with well-known classical distributions. The relation between the conditional probability density, given some averages as constraints and the appropriate ensemble is elucidated.

On the joint spectral density of bivariate random sequences. Thesis Technical Report No. 21

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aalfs, David D.

1995-01-01

For univariate random sequences, the power spectral density acts like a probability density function of the frequencies present in the sequence. This dissertation extends that concept to bivariate random sequences. For this purpose, a function called the joint spectral density is defined that represents a joint probability weighing of the frequency content of pairs of random sequences. Given a pair of random sequences, the joint spectral density is not uniquely determined in the absence of any constraints. Two approaches to constraining the sequences are suggested: (1) assume the sequences are the margins of some stationary random field, (2) assume the sequences conform to a particular model that is linked to the joint spectral density. For both approaches, the properties of the resulting sequences are investigated in some detail, and simulation is used to corroborate theoretical results. It is concluded that under either of these two constraints, the joint spectral density can be computed from the non-stationary cross-correlation.

Application of the surface azimuthal electrical resistivity survey method to determine patterns of regional joint orientation in glacial tills

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carlson, D.

2010-01-01

Joints within unconsolidated material such as glacial till can be primary avenues for the flow of electrical charge, water, and contaminants. To facilitate the siting and design of remediation programs, a need exists to map anisotropic distribution of such pathways within glacial tills by determining the azimuth of the dominant joint set. The azimuthal survey method uses standard resistivity equipment with a Wenner array rotated about a fixed center point at selected degree intervals that yields an apparent resistivity ellipse. From this ellipse, joint set orientation can be determined. Azimuthal surveys were conducted at 21 sites in a 500-km2 (193 mi2) area around Milwaukee, Wisconsin, and more specifically, at sites having more than 30 m (98 ft) of glacial till (to minimize the influence of underlying bedrock joints). The 26 azimuthal surveys revealed a systematic pattern to the trend of the dominant joint set within the tills, which is approximately parallel to ice flow direction during till deposition. The average orientation of the joint set parallel with the ice flow direction is N77??E and N37??E for the Oak Creek and Ozaukee tills, respectively. The mean difference between average direct observation of joint set orientations and average azimuthal resistivity results is 8??, which is one fifth of the difference of ice flow direction between the Ozaukee and Oak Creek tills. The results of this study suggest that the surface azimuthal electrical resistivity survey method used for local in situ studies can be a useful noninvasive method for delineating joint sets within shallow geologic material for regional studies. Copyright ?? 2010 The American Association of Petroleum Geologists/Division of Environmental Geosciences. All rights reserved.

Probability of satellite collision

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mccarter, J. W.

1972-01-01

A method is presented for computing the probability of a collision between a particular artificial earth satellite and any one of the total population of earth satellites. The collision hazard incurred by the proposed modular Space Station is assessed using the technique presented. The results of a parametric study to determine what type of satellite orbits produce the greatest contribution to the total collision probability are presented. Collision probability for the Space Station is given as a function of Space Station altitude and inclination. Collision probability was also parameterized over miss distance and mission duration.

Investigations of turbulent scalar fields using probability density function approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gao, Feng

1991-01-01

Scalar fields undergoing random advection have attracted much attention from researchers in both the theoretical and practical sectors. Research interest spans from the study of the small scale structures of turbulent scalar fields to the modeling and simulations of turbulent reacting flows. The probability density function (PDF) method is an effective tool in the study of turbulent scalar fields, especially for those which involve chemical reactions. It has been argued that a one-point, joint PDF approach is the one to choose from among many simulation and closure methods for turbulent combustion and chemically reacting flows based on its practical feasibility in the foreseeable future for multiple reactants. Instead of the multi-point PDF, the joint PDF of a scalar and its gradient which represents the roles of both scalar and scalar diffusion is introduced. A proper closure model for the molecular diffusion term in the PDF equation is investigated. Another direction in this research is to study the mapping closure method that has been recently proposed to deal with the PDF's in turbulent fields. This method seems to have captured the physics correctly when applied to diffusion problems. However, if the turbulent stretching is included, the amplitude mapping has to be supplemented by either adjusting the parameters representing turbulent stretching at each time step or by introducing the coordinate mapping. This technique is still under development and seems to be quite promising. The final objective of this project is to understand some fundamental properties of the turbulent scalar fields and to develop practical numerical schemes that are capable of handling turbulent reacting flows.

Self-calibration method without joint iteration for distributed small satellite SAR systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Qing; Liao, Guisheng; Liu, Aifei; Zhang, Juan

2013-12-01

The performance of distributed small satellite synthetic aperture radar systems degrades significantly due to the unavoidable array errors, including gain, phase, and position errors, in real operating scenarios. In the conventional method proposed in (IEEE T Aero. Elec. Sys. 42:436-451, 2006), the spectrum components within one Doppler bin are considered as calibration sources. However, it is found in this article that the gain error estimation and the position error estimation in the conventional method can interact with each other. The conventional method may converge to suboptimal solutions in large position errors since it requires the joint iteration between gain-phase error estimation and position error estimation. In addition, it is also found that phase errors can be estimated well regardless of position errors when the zero Doppler bin is chosen. In this article, we propose a method obtained by modifying the conventional one, based on these two observations. In this modified method, gain errors are firstly estimated and compensated, which eliminates the interaction between gain error estimation and position error estimation. Then, by using the zero Doppler bin data, the phase error estimation can be performed well independent of position errors. Finally, position errors are estimated based on the Taylor-series expansion. Meanwhile, the joint iteration between gain-phase error estimation and position error estimation is not required. Therefore, the problem of suboptimal convergence, which occurs in the conventional method, can be avoided with low computational method. The modified method has merits of faster convergence and lower estimation error compared to the conventional one. Theoretical analysis and computer simulation results verified the effectiveness of the modified method.

Novel Methods for Sensing Acoustical Emissions From the Knee for Wearable Joint Health Assessment.

PubMed

Teague, Caitlin N; Hersek, Sinan; Toreyin, Hakan; Millard-Stafford, Mindy L; Jones, Michael L; Kogler, Geza F; Sawka, Michael N; Inan, Omer T

2016-08-01

We present the framework for wearable joint rehabilitation assessment following musculoskeletal injury. We propose a multimodal sensing (i.e., contact based and airborne measurement of joint acoustic emission) system for at-home monitoring. We used three types of microphones-electret, MEMS, and piezoelectric film microphones-to obtain joint sounds in healthy collegiate athletes during unloaded flexion/extension, and we evaluated the robustness of each microphone's measurements via: 1) signal quality and 2) within-day consistency. First, air microphones acquired higher quality signals than contact microphones (signal-to-noise-and-interference ratio of 11.7 and 12.4 dB for electret and MEMS, respectively, versus 8.4 dB for piezoelectric). Furthermore, air microphones measured similar acoustic signatures on the skin and 5 cm off the skin (∼4.5× smaller amplitude). Second, the main acoustic event during repetitive motions occurred at consistent joint angles (intra-class correlation coefficient ICC(1, 1) = 0.94 and ICC(1, k) = 0.99). Additionally, we found that this angular location was similar between right and left legs, with asymmetry observed in only a few individuals. We recommend using air microphones for wearable joint sound sensing; for practical implementation of contact microphones in a wearable device, interface noise must be reduced. Importantly, we show that airborne signals can be measured consistently and that healthy left and right knees often produce a similar pattern in acoustic emissions. These proposed methods have the potential for enabling knee joint acoustics measurement outside the clinic/lab and permitting long-term monitoring of knee health for patients rehabilitating an acute knee joint injury.

A Model-Free Machine Learning Method for Risk Classification and Survival Probability Prediction.

PubMed

Geng, Yuan; Lu, Wenbin; Zhang, Hao Helen

2014-01-01

Risk classification and survival probability prediction are two major goals in survival data analysis since they play an important role in patients' risk stratification, long-term diagnosis, and treatment selection. In this article, we propose a new model-free machine learning framework for risk classification and survival probability prediction based on weighted support vector machines. The new procedure does not require any specific parametric or semiparametric model assumption on data, and is therefore capable of capturing nonlinear covariate effects. We use numerous simulation examples to demonstrate finite sample performance of the proposed method under various settings. Applications to a glioma tumor data and a breast cancer gene expression survival data are shown to illustrate the new methodology in real data analysis.

A novel method to identify herds with an increased probability of disease introduction due to animal trade.

PubMed

Frössling, Jenny; Nusinovici, Simon; Nöremark, Maria; Widgren, Stefan; Lindberg, Ann

2014-11-15

In the design of surveillance, there is often a desire to target high risk herds. Such risk-based approaches result in better allocation of resources and improve the performance of surveillance activities. For many contagious animal diseases, movement of live animals is a main route of transmission, and because of this, herds that purchase many live animals or have a large contact network due to trade can be seen as a high risk stratum of the population. This paper presents a new method to assess herd disease risk in animal movement networks. It is an improvement to current network measures that takes direction, temporal order, and also movement size and probability of disease into account. In the study, the method was used to calculate a probability of disease ratio (PDR) of herds in simulated datasets, and of real herds based on animal movement data from dairy herds included in a bulk milk survey for Coxiella burnetii. Known differences in probability of disease are easily incorporated in the calculations and the PDR was calculated while accounting for regional differences in probability of disease, and also by applying equal probability of disease throughout the population. Each herd's increased probability of disease due to purchase of animals was compared to both the average herd and herds within the same risk stratum. The results show that the PDR is able to capture the different circumstances related to disease prevalence and animal trade contact patterns. Comparison of results based on inclusion or exclusion of differences in risk also highlights how ignoring such differences can influence the ability to correctly identify high risk herds. The method shows a potential to be useful for risk-based surveillance, in the classification of herds in control programmes or to represent influential contacts in risk factor studies. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Method- and species-specific detection probabilities of fish occupancy in Arctic lakes: Implications for design and management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haynes, Trevor B.; Rosenberger, Amanda E.; Lindberg, Mark S.; Whitman, Matthew; Schmutz, Joel A.

2013-01-01

Studies examining species occurrence often fail to account for false absences in field sampling. We investigate detection probabilities of five gear types for six fish species in a sample of lakes on the North Slope, Alaska. We used an occupancy modeling approach to provide estimates of detection probabilities for each method. Variation in gear- and species-specific detection probability was considerable. For example, detection probabilities for the fyke net ranged from 0.82 (SE = 0.05) for least cisco (Coregonus sardinella) to 0.04 (SE = 0.01) for slimy sculpin (Cottus cognatus). Detection probabilities were also affected by site-specific variables such as depth of the lake, year, day of sampling, and lake connection to a stream. With the exception of the dip net and shore minnow traps, each gear type provided the highest detection probability of at least one species. Results suggest that a multimethod approach may be most effective when attempting to sample the entire fish community of Arctic lakes. Detection probability estimates will be useful for designing optimal fish sampling and monitoring protocols in Arctic lakes.

Principal Component Analysis in Construction of 3D Human Knee Joint Models Using a Statistical Shape Model Method

PubMed Central

Tsai, Tsung-Yuan; Li, Jing-Sheng; Wang, Shaobai; Li, Pingyue; Kwon, Young-Min; Li, Guoan

2013-01-01

The statistical shape model (SSM) method that uses 2D images of the knee joint to predict the 3D joint surface model has been reported in literature. In this study, we constructed a SSM database using 152 human CT knee joint models, including the femur, tibia and patella and analyzed the characteristics of each principal component of the SSM. The surface models of two in vivo knees were predicted using the SSM and their 2D bi-plane fluoroscopic images. The predicted models were compared to their CT joint models. The differences between the predicted 3D knee joint surfaces and the CT image-based surfaces were 0.30 ± 0.81 mm, 0.34 ± 0.79 mm and 0.36 ± 0.59 mm for the femur, tibia and patella, respectively (average ± standard deviation). The computational time for each bone of the knee joint was within 30 seconds using a personal computer. The analysis of this study indicated that the SSM method could be a useful tool to construct 3D surface models of the knee with sub-millimeter accuracy in real time. Thus it may have a broad application in computer assisted knee surgeries that require 3D surface models of the knee. PMID:24156375

Farm Management, Environment, and Weather Factors Jointly Affect the Probability of Spinach Contamination by Generic Escherichia coli at the Preharvest Stage

PubMed Central

Navratil, Sarah; Gregory, Ashley; Bauer, Arin; Srinath, Indumathi; Szonyi, Barbara; Nightingale, Kendra; Anciso, Juan; Jun, Mikyoung; Han, Daikwon; Lawhon, Sara; Ivanek, Renata

2014-01-01

The National Resources Information (NRI) databases provide underutilized information on the local farm conditions that may predict microbial contamination of leafy greens at preharvest. Our objective was to identify NRI weather and landscape factors affecting spinach contamination with generic Escherichia coli individually and jointly with farm management and environmental factors. For each of the 955 georeferenced spinach samples (including 63 positive samples) collected between 2010 and 2012 on 12 farms in Colorado and Texas, we extracted variables describing the local weather (ambient temperature, precipitation, and wind speed) and landscape (soil characteristics and proximity to roads and water bodies) from NRI databases. Variables describing farm management and environment were obtained from a survey of the enrolled farms. The variables were evaluated using a mixed-effect logistic regression model with random effects for farm and date. The model identified precipitation as a single NRI predictor of spinach contamination with generic E. coli, indicating that the contamination probability increases with an increasing mean amount of rain (mm) in the past 29 days (odds ratio [OR] = 3.5). The model also identified the farm's hygiene practices as a protective factor (OR = 0.06) and manure application (OR = 52.2) and state (OR = 108.1) as risk factors. In cross-validation, the model showed a solid predictive performance, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of 81%. Overall, the findings highlighted the utility of NRI precipitation data in predicting contamination and demonstrated that farm management, environment, and weather factors should be considered jointly in development of good agricultural practices and measures to reduce produce contamination. PMID:24509926

Application of multivariate Gaussian detection theory to known non-Gaussian probability density functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwartz, Craig R.; Thelen, Brian J.; Kenton, Arthur C.

1995-06-01

A statistical parametric multispectral sensor performance model was developed by ERIM to support mine field detection studies, multispectral sensor design/performance trade-off studies, and target detection algorithm development. The model assumes target detection algorithms and their performance models which are based on data assumed to obey multivariate Gaussian probability distribution functions (PDFs). The applicability of these algorithms and performance models can be generalized to data having non-Gaussian PDFs through the use of transforms which convert non-Gaussian data to Gaussian (or near-Gaussian) data. An example of one such transform is the Box-Cox power law transform. In practice, such a transform can be applied to non-Gaussian data prior to the introduction of a detection algorithm that is formally based on the assumption of multivariate Gaussian data. This paper presents an extension of these techniques to the case where the joint multivariate probability density function of the non-Gaussian input data is known, and where the joint estimate of the multivariate Gaussian statistics, under the Box-Cox transform, is desired. The jointly estimated multivariate Gaussian statistics can then be used to predict the performance of a target detection algorithm which has an associated Gaussian performance model.

Anticipating abrupt shifts in temporal evolution of probability of eruption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rohmer, J.; Loschetter, A.

2016-04-01

Estimating the probability of eruption by jointly accounting for different sources of monitoring parameters over time is a key component for volcano risk management. In the present study, we are interested in the transition from a state of low-to-moderate probability value to a state of high probability value. By using the data of MESIMEX exercise at the Vesuvius volcano, we investigated the potential for time-varying indicators related to the correlation structure or to the variability of the probability time series for detecting in advance this critical transition. We found that changes in the power spectra and in the standard deviation estimated over a rolling time window both present an abrupt increase, which marks the approaching shift. Our numerical experiments revealed that the transition from an eruption probability of 10-15% to > 70% could be identified up to 1-3 h in advance. This additional lead time could be useful to place different key services (e.g., emergency services for vulnerable groups, commandeering additional transportation means, etc.) on a higher level of alert before the actual call for evacuation.

HABITAT ASSESSMENT USING A RANDOM PROBABILITY BASED SAMPLING DESIGN: ESCAMBIA RIVER DELTA, FLORIDA

EPA Science Inventory

Smith, Lisa M., Darrin D. Dantin and Steve Jordan. In press. Habitat Assessment Using a Random Probability Based Sampling Design: Escambia River Delta, Florida (Abstract). To be presented at the SWS/GERS Fall Joint Society Meeting: Communication and Collaboration: Coastal Systems...

An automatic bone segmentation method based on anatomical structure for the knee joint in MDCT image.

PubMed

Uozumi, Y; Nagamune, K

2013-01-01

The purpose of this study is to propose an automatic segmentation about each bone (the femur, the tibia, the patellar, and fibular) of the knee in MDCT image. The proposed method was applied for six patients (Age 33 ± 13, four males/tew females). The proposed method segmented the knee joint into each bone by using anatomical structure for the knee joint. The experiments calculate matching rate of the manual and the proposed method for evaluating it. As a result, The matching rate of the femur, the tibia, the patellar, and fibula were 95.84 ± 0.57%, 94.12 ± 1.01%, 94.49 ± 0.83%, 86.37 ± 4.28%, respectively. This study concluded that the proposed method is enough to segment the knee bones.

Degenerative joint disease: multiple joint involvement in young and mature dogs.

PubMed

Olsewski, J M; Lust, G; Rendano, V T; Summers, B A

1983-07-01

Radiologic, pathologic, and ancillary methods were used to determine the occurrence of degenerative joint disease involving multiple joints of immature and adult dogs. Animals were selected for the development of hip joint dysplasia and chronic degenerative joint disease. Of disease-prone dogs, 82% (45 of 55 dogs) had radiologic changes, indicative of hip dysplasia, by 1 year of age. At necropsy, more abnormal joints were identified than by radiographic examination. Among 92 dogs between 3 to 11 months of age that had joint abnormalities, 71% had hip joint involvement; 38%, shoulder joint involvement; 22%, stifle joint involvement; and 40% had multiple joint involvement. Polyarthritis was asymptomatic and unexpected. Radiographic examination of older dogs also revealed evidence of degenerative joint disease in many joints. Multiple joint involvement was substantiated at necropsy of young and mature dogs. A similar pattern of polyarticular osteoarthritis was revealed in a survey (computer search) of necropsy reports from medical case records of 100 adult and elderly dogs. Usually, the joint disease was an incidental observation, unrelated to the clinical disease or to the cause of death. The frequent occurrence of degenerative changes in several joints of dogs aged 6 months to 17 years indicated that osteoarthritis may be progressive in these joints and raises the possibility that systemic factors are involved in the disease process.

Evidence reasoning method for constructing conditional probability tables in a Bayesian network of multimorbidity.

PubMed

Du, Yuanwei; Guo, Yubin

2015-01-01

The intrinsic mechanism of multimorbidity is difficult to recognize and prediction and diagnosis are difficult to carry out accordingly. Bayesian networks can help to diagnose multimorbidity in health care, but it is difficult to obtain the conditional probability table (CPT) because of the lack of clinically statistical data. Today, expert knowledge and experience are increasingly used in training Bayesian networks in order to help predict or diagnose diseases, but the CPT in Bayesian networks is usually irrational or ineffective for ignoring realistic constraints especially in multimorbidity. In order to solve these problems, an evidence reasoning (ER) approach is employed to extract and fuse inference data from experts using a belief distribution and recursive ER algorithm, based on which evidence reasoning method for constructing conditional probability tables in Bayesian network of multimorbidity is presented step by step. A multimorbidity numerical example is used to demonstrate the method and prove its feasibility and application. Bayesian network can be determined as long as the inference assessment is inferred by each expert according to his/her knowledge or experience. Our method is more effective than existing methods for extracting expert inference data accurately and is fused effectively for constructing CPTs in a Bayesian network of multimorbidity.

Comparison of the use of notched wedge joints vs. traditional butt joints in Connecticut

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-11-07

Performance of Hot Mix Asphalt (HMA) longitudinal joints have been an item of increasing scrutiny in : Connecticut. The traditional butt joint has typically been the method used in Connecticut. These joints : have been reportedly opening up, creating...

Arthroscopic Management of Scaphoid-Trapezium-Trapezoid Joint Arthritis.

PubMed

Pegoli, Loris; Pozzi, Alessandro

2017-11-01

Scaphoid-trapezium-trapezoid (STT) joint arthritis is a common condition consisting of pain on the radial side of the wrist and base of the thumb, swelling, and tenderness over the STT joint. Common symptoms are loss of grip strength and thumb function. There are several treatments, from symptomatic conservative treatment to surgical solutions, such as arthrodesis, arthroplasties, and prosthesis implant. The role of arthroscopy has grown and is probably the best treatment of this condition. Advantages of arthroscopic management of STT arthritis are faster recovery, better view of the joint during surgery, and possibility of creating less damage to the capsular and ligamentous structures. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Methods to elicit probability distributions from experts: a systematic review of reported practice in health technology assessment.

PubMed

Grigore, Bogdan; Peters, Jaime; Hyde, Christopher; Stein, Ken

2013-11-01

Elicitation is a technique that can be used to obtain probability distribution from experts about unknown quantities. We conducted a methodology review of reports where probability distributions had been elicited from experts to be used in model-based health technology assessments. Databases including MEDLINE, EMBASE and the CRD database were searched from inception to April 2013. Reference lists were checked and citation mapping was also used. Studies describing their approach to the elicitation of probability distributions were included. Data was abstracted on pre-defined aspects of the elicitation technique. Reports were critically appraised on their consideration of the validity, reliability and feasibility of the elicitation exercise. Fourteen articles were included. Across these studies, the most marked features were heterogeneity in elicitation approach and failure to report key aspects of the elicitation method. The most frequently used approaches to elicitation were the histogram technique and the bisection method. Only three papers explicitly considered the validity, reliability and feasibility of the elicitation exercises. Judged by the studies identified in the review, reports of expert elicitation are insufficient in detail and this impacts on the perceived usability of expert-elicited probability distributions. In this context, the wider credibility of elicitation will only be improved by better reporting and greater standardisation of approach. Until then, the advantage of eliciting probability distributions from experts may be lost.

Principal component analysis in construction of 3D human knee joint models using a statistical shape model method.

PubMed

Tsai, Tsung-Yuan; Li, Jing-Sheng; Wang, Shaobai; Li, Pingyue; Kwon, Young-Min; Li, Guoan

2015-01-01

The statistical shape model (SSM) method that uses 2D images of the knee joint to predict the three-dimensional (3D) joint surface model has been reported in the literature. In this study, we constructed a SSM database using 152 human computed tomography (CT) knee joint models, including the femur, tibia and patella and analysed the characteristics of each principal component of the SSM. The surface models of two in vivo knees were predicted using the SSM and their 2D bi-plane fluoroscopic images. The predicted models were compared to their CT joint models. The differences between the predicted 3D knee joint surfaces and the CT image-based surfaces were 0.30 ± 0.81 mm, 0.34 ± 0.79 mm and 0.36 ± 0.59 mm for the femur, tibia and patella, respectively (average ± standard deviation). The computational time for each bone of the knee joint was within 30 s using a personal computer. The analysis of this study indicated that the SSM method could be a useful tool to construct 3D surface models of the knee with sub-millimeter accuracy in real time. Thus, it may have a broad application in computer-assisted knee surgeries that require 3D surface models of the knee.

A prototype method for diagnosing high ice water content probability using satellite imager data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yost, Christopher R.; Bedka, Kristopher M.; Minnis, Patrick; Nguyen, Louis; Strapp, J. Walter; Palikonda, Rabindra; Khlopenkov, Konstantin; Spangenberg, Douglas; Smith, William L., Jr.; Protat, Alain; Delanoe, Julien

2018-03-01

Recent studies have found that ingestion of high mass concentrations of ice particles in regions of deep convective storms, with radar reflectivity considered safe for aircraft penetration, can adversely impact aircraft engine performance. Previous aviation industry studies have used the term high ice water content (HIWC) to define such conditions. Three airborne field campaigns were conducted in 2014 and 2015 to better understand how HIWC is distributed in deep convection, both as a function of altitude and proximity to convective updraft regions, and to facilitate development of new methods for detecting HIWC conditions, in addition to many other research and regulatory goals. This paper describes a prototype method for detecting HIWC conditions using geostationary (GEO) satellite imager data coupled with in situ total water content (TWC) observations collected during the flight campaigns. Three satellite-derived parameters were determined to be most useful for determining HIWC probability: (1) the horizontal proximity of the aircraft to the nearest overshooting convective updraft or textured anvil cloud, (2) tropopause-relative infrared brightness temperature, and (3) daytime-only cloud optical depth. Statistical fits between collocated TWC and GEO satellite parameters were used to determine the membership functions for the fuzzy logic derivation of HIWC probability. The products were demonstrated using data from several campaign flights and validated using a subset of the satellite-aircraft collocation database. The daytime HIWC probability was found to agree quite well with TWC time trends and identified extreme TWC events with high probability. Discrimination of HIWC was more challenging at night with IR-only information. The products show the greatest capability for discriminating TWC ≥ 0.5 g m-3. Product validation remains challenging due to vertical TWC uncertainties and the typically coarse spatio-temporal resolution of the GEO data.

Rotational and translational stability of different methods for direct acromioclavicular ligament repair in anatomic acromioclavicular joint reconstruction.

PubMed

Beitzel, Knut; Obopilwe, Elifho; Apostolakos, John; Cote, Mark P; Russell, Ryan P; Charette, Ryan; Singh, Hardeep; Arciero, Robert A; Imhoff, Andreas B; Mazzocca, Augustus D

2014-09-01

Many reconstructions of acromioclavicular (AC) joint dislocations have focused on the coracoclavicular (CC) ligaments and neglected the functional contribution of the AC ligaments and the deltotrapezial fascia. To compare the modifications of previously published methods for direct AC reconstruction in addition to a CC reconstruction. The hypothesis was that there would be significant differences within the variations of surgical reconstructions. Controlled laboratory study. A total of 24 cadaveric shoulders were tested with a servohydraulic testing system. Two digitizing cameras evaluated the 3-dimensional movement. All reconstructions were based on a CC reconstruction using 2 clavicle tunnels and a tendon graft. The following techniques were used to reconstruct the AC ligaments: a graft was shuttled underneath the AC joint back from anterior and again sutured to the acromial side of the joint (group 1), a graft was fixed intramedullary in the acromion and distal clavicle (group 2), a graft was passed over the acromion and into an acromial tunnel (group 3), and a FiberTape was fixed in a cruciate configuration (group 4). Anterior, posterior, and superior translation, as well as anterior and posterior rotation, were tested. Group 1 showed significantly less posterior translation compared with the 3 other groups (P < .05) but did not show significant differences compared with the native joint. Groups 3 and 4 demonstrated significantly more posterior translation than the native joint. Group 1 showed significantly less anterior translation compared with groups 2 and 3. Group 3 demonstrated significantly more anterior translation than the native joint. Group 1 demonstrated significantly less superior translation compared with the other groups and with the native joint. The AC joint of group 1 was pulled apart less compared with all other reconstructions. Only group 1 reproduced the native joint for the anterior rotation at the posterior marker. Group 4 showed

Joint search and sensor management for geosynchronous satellites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zatezalo, A.; El-Fallah, A.; Mahler, R.; Mehra, R. K.; Pham, K.

2008-04-01

Joint search and sensor management for space situational awareness presents daunting scientific and practical challenges as it requires a simultaneous search for new, and the catalog update of the current space objects. We demonstrate a new approach to joint search and sensor management by utilizing the Posterior Expected Number of Targets (PENT) as the objective function, an observation model for a space-based EO/IR sensor, and a Probability Hypothesis Density Particle Filter (PHD-PF) tracker. Simulation and results using actual Geosynchronous Satellites are presented.

Time-lapse joint AVO inversion using generalized linear method based on exact Zoeppritz equations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhi, L.; Gu, H.

2017-12-01

The conventional method of time-lapse AVO (Amplitude Versus Offset) inversion is mainly based on the approximate expression of Zoeppritz equations. Though the approximate expression is concise and convenient to use, it has certain limitations. For example, its application condition is that the difference of elastic parameters between the upper medium and lower medium is little and the incident angle is small. In addition, the inversion of density is not stable. Therefore, we develop the method of time-lapse joint AVO inversion based on exact Zoeppritz equations. In this method, we apply exact Zoeppritz equations to calculate the reflection coefficient of PP wave. And in the construction of objective function for inversion, we use Taylor expansion to linearize the inversion problem. Through the joint AVO inversion of seismic data in baseline survey and monitor survey, we can obtain P-wave velocity, S-wave velocity, density in baseline survey and their time-lapse changes simultaneously. We can also estimate the oil saturation change according to inversion results. Compared with the time-lapse difference inversion, the joint inversion has a better applicability. It doesn't need some assumptions and can estimate more parameters simultaneously. Meanwhile, by using the generalized linear method, the inversion is easily realized and its calculation amount is small. We use the Marmousi model to generate synthetic seismic records to test and analyze the influence of random noise. Without noise, all estimation results are relatively accurate. With the increase of noise, P-wave velocity change and oil saturation change are stable and less affected by noise. S-wave velocity change is most affected by noise. Finally we use the actual field data of time-lapse seismic prospecting to process and the results can prove the availability and feasibility of our method in actual situation.

A joint method to retrieve directional ocean wave spectra from SAR and wave spectrometer data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Lin; Yang, Jingsong; Zheng, Gang; Wang, Juan

2016-07-01

This paper proposes a joint method to simultaneously retrieve wave spectra at different scales from spaceborne Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and wave spectrometer data. The method combines the output from the two different sensors to overcome retrieval limitations that occur in some sea states. The wave spectrometer sensitivity coefficient is estimated using an effective significant wave height (SWH), which is an average of SAR-derived and wave spectrometer-derived SWH. This averaging extends the area of the sea surface sampled by the nadir beam of the wave spectrometer to improve the accuracy of the estimated sensitivity coefficient in inhomogeneous sea states. Wave spectra are then retrieved from SAR data using wave spectrometer-derived spectra as first guess spectra to complement the short waves lost in SAR data retrieval. In addition, the problem of 180° ambiguity in retrieved spectra is overcome using SAR imaginary cross spectra. Simulated data were used to validate the joint method. The simulations demonstrated that retrieved wave parameters, including SWH, peak wave length (PWL), and peak wave direction (PWD), agree well with reference parameters. Collocated data from ENVISAT advanced SAR (ASAR), the airborne wave spectrometer STORM, the PHAROS buoy, and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) were then used to verify the proposed method. Wave parameters retrieved from STORM and two ASAR images were compared to buoy and ECMWF wave data. Most of the retrieved parameters were comparable to reference parameters. The results of this study show that the proposed joint retrieval method could be a valuable complement to traditional methods used to retrieve directional ocean wave spectra, particularly in inhomogeneous sea states.

RATIONAL DETERMINATION METHOD OF PROBABLE FREEZING INDEX FOR n-YEARS CONSIDERING THE REGIONAL CHARACTERISTICS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kawabata, Shinichiro; Hayashi, Keiji; Kameyama, Shuichi

This paper investigates a method for ob taining the probable freezing index for n -years from past frostaction damage and meteorological data. From investigati on of Japanese cold winter data from the areas of Hokkaido, Tohoku and south of Tohoku, it was found that the extent of cold winter had regularity by location south or north. Also, after obtaining return periods of cold winters by area, obvious regional characteristics were found. Mild winters are rare in Hokkaido. However, it was clarified that when Hokkaido had cold winters, its size increased. It wa s effective to determine the probable freezing indices as 20-, 15- and 10-year return periods for Hokkaido, Tohoku and south of Tohoku, respectively.

LES/PDF studies of joint statistics of mixture fraction and progress variable in piloted methane jet flames with inhomogeneous inlet flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Pei; Barlow, Robert; Masri, Assaad; Wang, Haifeng

2016-11-01

The mixture fraction and progress variable are often used as independent variables for describing turbulent premixed and non-premixed flames. There is a growing interest in using these two variables for describing partially premixed flames. The joint statistical distribution of the mixture fraction and progress variable is of great interest in developing models for partially premixed flames. In this work, we conduct predictive studies of the joint statistics of mixture fraction and progress variable in a series of piloted methane jet flames with inhomogeneous inlet flows. The employed models combine large eddy simulations with the Monte Carlo probability density function (PDF) method. The joint PDFs and marginal PDFs are examined in detail by comparing the model predictions and the measurements. Different presumed shapes of the joint PDFs are also evaluated.

Optimizing Probability of Detection Point Estimate Demonstration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koshti, Ajay M.

2017-01-01

Probability of detection (POD) analysis is used in assessing reliably detectable flaw size in nondestructive evaluation (NDE). MIL-HDBK-18231and associated mh18232POD software gives most common methods of POD analysis. Real flaws such as cracks and crack-like flaws are desired to be detected using these NDE methods. A reliably detectable crack size is required for safe life analysis of fracture critical parts. The paper provides discussion on optimizing probability of detection (POD) demonstration experiments using Point Estimate Method. POD Point estimate method is used by NASA for qualifying special NDE procedures. The point estimate method uses binomial distribution for probability density. Normally, a set of 29 flaws of same size within some tolerance are used in the demonstration. The optimization is performed to provide acceptable value for probability of passing demonstration (PPD) and achieving acceptable value for probability of false (POF) calls while keeping the flaw sizes in the set as small as possible.

Joint detection and tracking of size-varying infrared targets based on block-wise sparse decomposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Miao; Lin, Zaiping; Long, Yunli; An, Wei; Zhou, Yiyu

2016-05-01

The high variability of target size makes small target detection in Infrared Search and Track (IRST) a challenging task. A joint detection and tracking method based on block-wise sparse decomposition is proposed to address this problem. For detection, the infrared image is divided into overlapped blocks, and each block is weighted on the local image complexity and target existence probabilities. Target-background decomposition is solved by block-wise inexact augmented Lagrange multipliers. For tracking, label multi-Bernoulli (LMB) tracker tracks multiple targets taking the result of single-frame detection as input, and provides corresponding target existence probabilities for detection. Unlike fixed-size methods, the proposed method can accommodate size-varying targets, due to no special assumption for the size and shape of small targets. Because of exact decomposition, classical target measurements are extended and additional direction information is provided to improve tracking performance. The experimental results show that the proposed method can effectively suppress background clutters, detect and track size-varying targets in infrared images.

Time-dependent landslide probability mapping

USGS Publications Warehouse

Campbell, Russell H.; Bernknopf, Richard L.; ,

1993-01-01

Case studies where time of failure is known for rainfall-triggered debris flows can be used to estimate the parameters of a hazard model in which the probability of failure is a function of time. As an example, a time-dependent function for the conditional probability of a soil slip is estimated from independent variables representing hillside morphology, approximations of material properties, and the duration and rate of rainfall. If probabilities are calculated in a GIS (geomorphic information system ) environment, the spatial distribution of the result for any given hour can be displayed on a map. Although the probability levels in this example are uncalibrated, the method offers a potential for evaluating different physical models and different earth-science variables by comparing the map distribution of predicted probabilities with inventory maps for different areas and different storms. If linked with spatial and temporal socio-economic variables, this method could be used for short-term risk assessment.

The Dorsal 4-finger Technique: A Novel Method to Examine Metacarpophalangeal Joints in Patients with Rheumatoid Arthritis.

PubMed

Omair, Mohammed A; Akhavan, Pooneh; Naraghi, Ali; Mittoo, Shikha; Xiong, Juan; Weber, Deborah; Lin, Daming; Weber, Melissa; Keystone, Edward C

2018-03-01

To describe the dorsal 4-finger technique (DFFT) in examining metacarpophalangeal (MCP) joints of patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and compare it to the traditional 2-finger technique (TFT) using ultrasound (US) as a gold standard. Four rheumatologists evaluated 180 MCP joints of 18 patients with RA. All patients underwent US for greyscale (GSUS) and power Doppler US (PDUS). Agreements between rheumatologists, the 2 techniques, and US were evaluated using Cohen κ and the first-order agreement coefficient (AC1) κ methods. The population comprised 17 females (94.4%) with a mean (SD) age and disease duration of 56.8 (14.4) and 21.8 (12.9) years, respectively. Eight patients (44.4%) were taking methotrexate monotherapy, while 10 patients (55.6%) were receiving biologics. US evaluation revealed 69 (38.3%) and 30 (16.7%) joints exhibited synovitis grade 2-3 by GSUS and PDUS, respectively. Effusion was documented in 30 joints (16.7%). The mean intraobserver agreement using the DFFT and TFT were 80.5% and 86%, respectively. The mean interobserver agreements using the DFFT and TFT were 84% and 74%, respectively. κ agreement with US findings was similar for both techniques in tender joints but was higher for the DFFT in nontender joints (0.33 vs 0.07, p = 0.015 for GSUS) and (0.48 vs 0.11, p = 0.002 for PDUS). The DFFT had a higher sensitivity in detecting ballottement by GSUS (0.47 vs 0.2, p < 0.001) and PDUS (0.60 vs 0.27, p < 0.001). The DFFT is a novel, reproducible, and reliable method to examine MCP joints, and it has a better correlation with US than the traditional TFT.

Impact extractive fracture of jointed steel plates of a bolted joint

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daimaruya, M.; Fujiki, H.; Ambarita, H.

2012-08-01

This study is concerned with the development of a fracture criterion for the impact fracture of jointed steel plates of a bolted joint used in a car body. For the accurate prediction of crash characteristics of car bodies by computer-aided engineering (CAE), it is also necessary to examine the behavior and fracture of jointed steel plates subjected to impact loads. Although the actual impact fracture of jointed steel plates of a bolted joint used in cars is complicated, for simplifying the problem it might be classified into the shear fracture and the extractive fracture of jointed steel plates. Attention is given to the extractive fracture of jointed steel plates in this study. The extractive behavior and fracture of three kinds of steel plates used for cars are examined in experiments and numerical simulations. The impact extraction test of steel plates jointed by a bolt is performed using the one-bar method, together with the static test. In order to understand the mechanism of extractive fracture process of jointed steel plates, numerical simulations by a FEM code LS-DYNA are also carried out. The obtained results suggest that a stress-based fracture criterion may be developed for the impact extractive fracture of jointed steel plates of a bolted joint used in a car body.

Bayesian and Frequentist Methods for Estimating Joint Uncertainty of Freundlich Adsorption Isotherm Fitting Parameters

EPA Science Inventory

In this paper, we present methods for estimating Freundlich isotherm fitting parameters (K and N) and their joint uncertainty, which have been implemented into the freeware software platforms R and WinBUGS. These estimates were determined by both Frequentist and Bayesian analyse...

Computing Earthquake Probabilities on Global Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holliday, James R.; Graves, William R.; Rundle, John B.; Turcotte, Donald L.

2016-03-01

Large devastating events in systems such as earthquakes, typhoons, market crashes, electricity grid blackouts, floods, droughts, wars and conflicts, and landslides can be unexpected and devastating. Events in many of these systems display frequency-size statistics that are power laws. Previously, we presented a new method for calculating probabilities for large events in systems such as these. This method counts the number of small events since the last large event and then converts this count into a probability by using a Weibull probability law. We applied this method to the calculation of large earthquake probabilities in California-Nevada, USA. In that study, we considered a fixed geographic region and assumed that all earthquakes within that region, large magnitudes as well as small, were perfectly correlated. In the present article, we extend this model to systems in which the events have a finite correlation length. We modify our previous results by employing the correlation function for near mean field systems having long-range interactions, an example of which is earthquakes and elastic interactions. We then construct an application of the method and show examples of computed earthquake probabilities.

Parameterizing deep convection using the assumed probability density function method

DOE PAGES

Storer, R. L.; Griffin, B. M.; Höft, J.; ...

2014-06-11

Due to their coarse horizontal resolution, present-day climate models must parameterize deep convection. This paper presents single-column simulations of deep convection using a probability density function (PDF) parameterization. The PDF parameterization predicts the PDF of subgrid variability of turbulence, clouds, and hydrometeors. That variability is interfaced to a prognostic microphysics scheme using a Monte Carlo sampling method. The PDF parameterization is used to simulate tropical deep convection, the transition from shallow to deep convection over land, and mid-latitude deep convection. These parameterized single-column simulations are compared with 3-D reference simulations. The agreement is satisfactory except when the convective forcing ismore » weak. The same PDF parameterization is also used to simulate shallow cumulus and stratocumulus layers. The PDF method is sufficiently general to adequately simulate these five deep, shallow, and stratiform cloud cases with a single equation set. This raises hopes that it may be possible in the future, with further refinements at coarse time step and grid spacing, to parameterize all cloud types in a large-scale model in a unified way.« less

Parameterizing deep convection using the assumed probability density function method

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Storer, R. L.; Griffin, B. M.; Höft, J.

2015-01-06

Due to their coarse horizontal resolution, present-day climate models must parameterize deep convection. This paper presents single-column simulations of deep convection using a probability density function (PDF) parameterization. The PDF parameterization predicts the PDF of subgrid variability of turbulence, clouds, and hydrometeors. That variability is interfaced to a prognostic microphysics scheme using a Monte Carlo sampling method.The PDF parameterization is used to simulate tropical deep convection, the transition from shallow to deep convection over land, and midlatitude deep convection. These parameterized single-column simulations are compared with 3-D reference simulations. The agreement is satisfactory except when the convective forcing is weak.more » The same PDF parameterization is also used to simulate shallow cumulus and stratocumulus layers. The PDF method is sufficiently general to adequately simulate these five deep, shallow, and stratiform cloud cases with a single equation set. This raises hopes that it may be possible in the future, with further refinements at coarse time step and grid spacing, to parameterize all cloud types in a large-scale model in a unified way.« less

Parameterizing deep convection using the assumed probability density function method

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Storer, R. L.; Griffin, B. M.; Hoft, Jan

2015-01-06

Due to their coarse horizontal resolution, present-day climate models must parameterize deep convection. This paper presents single-column simulations of deep convection using a probability density function (PDF) parameterization. The PDF parameterization predicts the PDF of subgrid variability of turbulence, clouds, and hydrometeors. That variability is interfaced to a prognostic microphysics scheme using a Monte Carlo sampling method.The PDF parameterization is used to simulate tropical deep convection, the transition from shallow to deep convection over land, and mid-latitude deep convection.These parameterized single-column simulations are compared with 3-D reference simulations. The agreement is satisfactory except when the convective forcing is weak. Themore » same PDF parameterization is also used to simulate shallow cumulus and stratocumulus layers. The PDF method is sufficiently general to adequately simulate these five deep, shallow, and stratiform cloud cases with a single equation set. This raises hopes that it may be possible in the future, with further refinements at coarse time step and grid spacing, to parameterize all cloud types in a large-scale model in a unified way.« less

Joint modelling of longitudinal CEA tumour marker progression and survival data on breast cancer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borges, Ana; Sousa, Inês; Castro, Luis

2017-06-01

This work proposes the use of Biostatistics methods to study breast cancer in patients of Braga's Hospital Senology Unit, located in Portugal. The primary motivation is to contribute to the understanding of the progression of breast cancer, within the Portuguese population, using a more complex statistical model assumptions than the traditional analysis that take into account a possible existence of a serial correlation structure within a same subject observations. We aim to infer which risk factors aect the survival of Braga's Hospital patients, diagnosed with breast tumour. Whilst analysing risk factors that aect a tumour markers used on the surveillance of disease progression the Carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA). As survival and longitudinal processes may be associated, it is important to model these two processes together. Hence, a joint modelling of these two processes to infer on the association of these was conducted. A data set of 540 patients, along with 50 variables, was collected from medical records of the Hospital. A joint model approach was used to analyse these data. Two dierent joint models were applied to the same data set, with dierent parameterizations which give dierent interpretations to model parameters. These were used by convenience as the ones implemented in R software. Results from the two models were compared. Results from joint models, showed that the longitudinal CEA values were signicantly associated with the survival probability of these patients. A comparison between parameter estimates obtained in this analysis and previous independent survival[4] and longitudinal analysis[5][6], lead us to conclude that independent analysis brings up bias parameter estimates. Hence, an assumption of association between the two processes in a joint model of breast cancer data is necessary. Results indicate that the longitudinal progression of CEA is signicantly associated with the probability of survival of these patients. Hence, an assumption of

Unification of field theory and maximum entropy methods for learning probability densities.

PubMed

Kinney, Justin B

2015-09-01

The need to estimate smooth probability distributions (a.k.a. probability densities) from finite sampled data is ubiquitous in science. Many approaches to this problem have been described, but none is yet regarded as providing a definitive solution. Maximum entropy estimation and Bayesian field theory are two such approaches. Both have origins in statistical physics, but the relationship between them has remained unclear. Here I unify these two methods by showing that every maximum entropy density estimate can be recovered in the infinite smoothness limit of an appropriate Bayesian field theory. I also show that Bayesian field theory estimation can be performed without imposing any boundary conditions on candidate densities, and that the infinite smoothness limit of these theories recovers the most common types of maximum entropy estimates. Bayesian field theory thus provides a natural test of the maximum entropy null hypothesis and, furthermore, returns an alternative (lower entropy) density estimate when the maximum entropy hypothesis is falsified. The computations necessary for this approach can be performed rapidly for one-dimensional data, and software for doing this is provided.

Unification of field theory and maximum entropy methods for learning probability densities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinney, Justin B.

2015-09-01

The need to estimate smooth probability distributions (a.k.a. probability densities) from finite sampled data is ubiquitous in science. Many approaches to this problem have been described, but none is yet regarded as providing a definitive solution. Maximum entropy estimation and Bayesian field theory are two such approaches. Both have origins in statistical physics, but the relationship between them has remained unclear. Here I unify these two methods by showing that every maximum entropy density estimate can be recovered in the infinite smoothness limit of an appropriate Bayesian field theory. I also show that Bayesian field theory estimation can be performed without imposing any boundary conditions on candidate densities, and that the infinite smoothness limit of these theories recovers the most common types of maximum entropy estimates. Bayesian field theory thus provides a natural test of the maximum entropy null hypothesis and, furthermore, returns an alternative (lower entropy) density estimate when the maximum entropy hypothesis is falsified. The computations necessary for this approach can be performed rapidly for one-dimensional data, and software for doing this is provided.

An innovative method for offshore wind farm site selection based on the interval number with probability distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Yunna; Chen, Kaifeng; Xu, Hu; Xu, Chuanbo; Zhang, Haobo; Yang, Meng

2017-12-01

There is insufficient research relating to offshore wind farm site selection in China. The current methods for site selection have some defects. First, information loss is caused by two aspects: the implicit assumption that the probability distribution on the interval number is uniform; and ignoring the value of decision makers' (DMs') common opinion on the criteria information evaluation. Secondly, the difference in DMs' utility function has failed to receive attention. An innovative method is proposed in this article to solve these drawbacks. First, a new form of interval number and its weighted operator are proposed to reflect the uncertainty and reduce information loss. Secondly, a new stochastic dominance degree is proposed to quantify the interval number with a probability distribution. Thirdly, a two-stage method integrating the weighted operator with stochastic dominance degree is proposed to evaluate the alternatives. Finally, a case from China proves the effectiveness of this method.

Radiation detection method and system using the sequential probability ratio test

DOEpatents

Nelson, Karl E [Livermore, CA; Valentine, John D [Redwood City, CA; Beauchamp, Brock R [San Ramon, CA

2007-07-17

A method and system using the Sequential Probability Ratio Test to enhance the detection of an elevated level of radiation, by determining whether a set of observations are consistent with a specified model within a given bounds of statistical significance. In particular, the SPRT is used in the present invention to maximize the range of detection, by providing processing mechanisms for estimating the dynamic background radiation, adjusting the models to reflect the amount of background knowledge at the current point in time, analyzing the current sample using the models to determine statistical significance, and determining when the sample has returned to the expected background conditions.

Comparison of different statistical methods for estimation of extreme sea levels with wave set-up contribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kergadallan, Xavier; Bernardara, Pietro; Benoit, Michel; Andreewsky, Marc; Weiss, Jérôme

2013-04-01

Estimating the probability of occurrence of extreme sea levels is a central issue for the protection of the coast. Return periods of sea level with wave set-up contribution are estimated here in one site : Cherbourg in France in the English Channel. The methodology follows two steps : the first one is computation of joint probability of simultaneous wave height and still sea level, the second one is interpretation of that joint probabilities to assess a sea level for a given return period. Two different approaches were evaluated to compute joint probability of simultaneous wave height and still sea level : the first one is multivariate extreme values distributions of logistic type in which all components of the variables become large simultaneously, the second one is conditional approach for multivariate extreme values in which only one component of the variables have to be large. Two different methods were applied to estimate sea level with wave set-up contribution for a given return period : Monte-Carlo simulation in which estimation is more accurate but needs higher calculation time and classical ocean engineering design contours of type inverse-FORM in which the method is simpler and allows more complex estimation of wave setup part (wave propagation to the coast for example). We compare results from the two different approaches with the two different methods. To be able to use both Monte-Carlo simulation and design contours methods, wave setup is estimated with an simple empirical formula. We show advantages of the conditional approach compared to the multivariate extreme values approach when extreme sea-level occurs when either surge or wave height is large. We discuss the validity of the ocean engineering design contours method which is an alternative when computation of sea levels is too complex to use Monte-Carlo simulation method.

Non-Kolmogorovian Approach to the Context-Dependent Systems Breaking the Classical Probability Law

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asano, Masanari; Basieva, Irina; Khrennikov, Andrei; Ohya, Masanori; Yamato, Ichiro

2013-07-01

There exist several phenomena breaking the classical probability laws. The systems related to such phenomena are context-dependent, so that they are adaptive to other systems. In this paper, we present a new mathematical formalism to compute the joint probability distribution for two event-systems by using concepts of the adaptive dynamics and quantum information theory, e.g., quantum channels and liftings. In physics the basic example of the context-dependent phenomena is the famous double-slit experiment. Recently similar examples have been found in biological and psychological sciences. Our approach is an extension of traditional quantum probability theory, and it is general enough to describe aforementioned contextual phenomena outside of quantum physics.

Joint image reconstruction method with correlative multi-channel prior for x-ray spectral computed tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kazantsev, Daniil; Jørgensen, Jakob S.; Andersen, Martin S.; Lionheart, William R. B.; Lee, Peter D.; Withers, Philip J.

2018-06-01

Rapid developments in photon-counting and energy-discriminating detectors have the potential to provide an additional spectral dimension to conventional x-ray grayscale imaging. Reconstructed spectroscopic tomographic data can be used to distinguish individual materials by characteristic absorption peaks. The acquired energy-binned data, however, suffer from low signal-to-noise ratio, acquisition artifacts, and frequently angular undersampled conditions. New regularized iterative reconstruction methods have the potential to produce higher quality images and since energy channels are mutually correlated it can be advantageous to exploit this additional knowledge. In this paper, we propose a novel method which jointly reconstructs all energy channels while imposing a strong structural correlation. The core of the proposed algorithm is to employ a variational framework of parallel level sets to encourage joint smoothing directions. In particular, the method selects reference channels from which to propagate structure in an adaptive and stochastic way while preferring channels with a high data signal-to-noise ratio. The method is compared with current state-of-the-art multi-channel reconstruction techniques including channel-wise total variation and correlative total nuclear variation regularization. Realistic simulation experiments demonstrate the performance improvements achievable by using correlative regularization methods.

Model-assisted probability of detection of flaws in aluminum blocks using polynomial chaos expansions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Xiaosong; Leifsson, Leifur; Grandin, Robert; Meeker, William; Roberts, Ronald; Song, Jiming

2018-04-01

Probability of detection (POD) is widely used for measuring reliability of nondestructive testing (NDT) systems. Typically, POD is determined experimentally, while it can be enhanced by utilizing physics-based computational models in combination with model-assisted POD (MAPOD) methods. With the development of advanced physics-based methods, such as ultrasonic NDT testing, the empirical information, needed for POD methods, can be reduced. However, performing accurate numerical simulations can be prohibitively time-consuming, especially as part of stochastic analysis. In this work, stochastic surrogate models for computational physics-based measurement simulations are developed for cost savings of MAPOD methods while simultaneously ensuring sufficient accuracy. The stochastic surrogate is used to propagate the random input variables through the physics-based simulation model to obtain the joint probability distribution of the output. The POD curves are then generated based on those results. Here, the stochastic surrogates are constructed using non-intrusive polynomial chaos (NIPC) expansions. In particular, the NIPC methods used are the quadrature, ordinary least-squares (OLS), and least-angle regression sparse (LARS) techniques. The proposed approach is demonstrated on the ultrasonic testing simulation of a flat bottom hole flaw in an aluminum block. The results show that the stochastic surrogates have at least two orders of magnitude faster convergence on the statistics than direct Monte Carlo sampling (MCS). Moreover, the evaluation of the stochastic surrogate models is over three orders of magnitude faster than the underlying simulation model for this case, which is the UTSim2 model.

The World According to de Finetti: On de Finetti's Theory of Probability and Its Application to Quantum Mechanics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berkovitz, Joseph

Bruno de Finetti is one of the founding fathers of the subjectivist school of probability, where probabilities are interpreted as rational degrees of belief. His work on the relation between the theorems of probability and rationality is among the corner stones of modern subjective probability theory. De Finetti maintained that rationality requires that degrees of belief be coherent, and he argued that the whole of probability theory could be derived from these coherence conditions. De Finetti's interpretation of probability has been highly influential in science. This paper focuses on the application of this interpretation to quantum mechanics. We argue that de Finetti held that the coherence conditions of degrees of belief in events depend on their verifiability. Accordingly, the standard coherence conditions of degrees of belief that are familiar from the literature on subjective probability only apply to degrees of belief in events which could (in principle) be jointly verified; and the coherence conditions of degrees of belief in events that cannot be jointly verified are weaker. While the most obvious explanation of de Finetti's verificationism is the influence of positivism, we argue that it could be motivated by the radical subjectivist and instrumental nature of probability in his interpretation; for as it turns out, in this interpretation it is difficult to make sense of the idea of coherent degrees of belief in, and accordingly probabilities of unverifiable events. We then consider the application of this interpretation to quantum mechanics, concentrating on the Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen experiment and Bell's theorem.

Estimation of Time-Varying, Intrinsic and Reflex Dynamic Joint Stiffness during Movement. Application to the Ankle Joint

PubMed Central

Guarín, Diego L.; Kearney, Robert E.

2017-01-01

Dynamic joint stiffness determines the relation between joint position and torque, and plays a vital role in the control of posture and movement. Dynamic joint stiffness can be quantified during quasi-stationary conditions using disturbance experiments, where small position perturbations are applied to the joint and the torque response is recorded. Dynamic joint stiffness is composed of intrinsic and reflex mechanisms that act and change together, so that nonlinear, mathematical models and specialized system identification techniques are necessary to estimate their relative contributions to overall joint stiffness. Quasi-stationary experiments have demonstrated that dynamic joint stiffness is heavily modulated by joint position and voluntary torque. Consequently, during movement, when joint position and torque change rapidly, dynamic joint stiffness will be Time-Varying (TV). This paper introduces a new method to quantify the TV intrinsic and reflex components of dynamic joint stiffness during movement. The algorithm combines ensemble and deterministic approaches for estimation of TV systems; and uses a TV, parallel-cascade, nonlinear system identification technique to separate overall dynamic joint stiffness into intrinsic and reflex components from position and torque records. Simulation studies of a stiffness model, whose parameters varied with time as is expected during walking, demonstrated that the new algorithm accurately tracked the changes in dynamic joint stiffness using as little as 40 gait cycles. The method was also used to estimate the intrinsic and reflex dynamic ankle stiffness from an experiment with a healthy subject during which ankle movements were imposed while the subject maintained a constant muscle contraction. The method identified TV stiffness model parameters that predicted the measured torque very well, accounting for more than 95% of its variance. Moreover, both intrinsic and reflex dynamic stiffness were heavily modulated through the

Method of making a composite tube to metal joint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Leslie, James C.; Leslie, II, James C.; Heard, James

A method for making a metal to composite tube joint including selecting an elongated interior fitting constructed with an exterior barrel, reduced in exterior diameter to form a distally facing annular shoulder and then projecting still further distally to form an interior sleeve having a radially outwardly facing bonding surface. Selecting an elongated metal outer sleeve formed proximally with a collar constructed for receipt over the barrel and increased in interior diameter and projecting distally to form an exterior sleeve having a radially inwardly facing bonding surface cooperating with the first bonding surface to form an annulus receiving an extremitymore » of a composite tube and a bond bonding the extremity of the tube to the bonding surfaces.« less

Probability Forecasting Using Monte Carlo Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duncan, M.; Frisbee, J.; Wysack, J.

2014-09-01

Space Situational Awareness (SSA) is defined as the knowledge and characterization of all aspects of space. SSA is now a fundamental and critical component of space operations. Increased dependence on our space assets has in turn lead to a greater need for accurate, near real-time knowledge of all space activities. With the growth of the orbital debris population, satellite operators are performing collision avoidance maneuvers more frequently. Frequent maneuver execution expends fuel and reduces the operational lifetime of the spacecraft. Thus the need for new, more sophisticated collision threat characterization methods must be implemented. The collision probability metric is used operationally to quantify the collision risk. The collision probability is typically calculated days into the future, so that high risk and potential high risk conjunction events are identified early enough to develop an appropriate course of action. As the time horizon to the conjunction event is reduced, the collision probability changes. A significant change in the collision probability will change the satellite mission stakeholder's course of action. So constructing a method for estimating how the collision probability will evolve improves operations by providing satellite operators with a new piece of information, namely an estimate or 'forecast' of how the risk will change as time to the event is reduced. Collision probability forecasting is a predictive process where the future risk of a conjunction event is estimated. The method utilizes a Monte Carlo simulation that produces a likelihood distribution for a given collision threshold. Using known state and state uncertainty information, the simulation generates a set possible trajectories for a given space object pair. Each new trajectory produces a unique event geometry at the time of close approach. Given state uncertainty information for both objects, a collision probability value can be computed for every trail. This yields a

Multinomial mixture model with heterogeneous classification probabilities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holland, M.D.; Gray, B.R.

2011-01-01

Royle and Link (Ecology 86(9):2505-2512, 2005) proposed an analytical method that allowed estimation of multinomial distribution parameters and classification probabilities from categorical data measured with error. While useful, we demonstrate algebraically and by simulations that this method yields biased multinomial parameter estimates when the probabilities of correct category classifications vary among sampling units. We address this shortcoming by treating these probabilities as logit-normal random variables within a Bayesian framework. We use Markov chain Monte Carlo to compute Bayes estimates from a simulated sample from the posterior distribution. Based on simulations, this elaborated Royle-Link model yields nearly unbiased estimates of multinomial and correct classification probability estimates when classification probabilities are allowed to vary according to the normal distribution on the logit scale or according to the Beta distribution. The method is illustrated using categorical submersed aquatic vegetation data. ?? 2010 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

A Novel Optimal Joint Resource Allocation Method in Cooperative Multicarrier Networks: Theory and Practice

PubMed Central

Gao, Yuan; Zhou, Weigui; Ao, Hong; Chu, Jian; Zhou, Quan; Zhou, Bo; Wang, Kang; Li, Yi; Xue, Peng

2016-01-01

With the increasing demands for better transmission speed and robust quality of service (QoS), the capacity constrained backhaul gradually becomes a bottleneck in cooperative wireless networks, e.g., in the Internet of Things (IoT) scenario in joint processing mode of LTE-Advanced Pro. This paper focuses on resource allocation within capacity constrained backhaul in uplink cooperative wireless networks, where two base stations (BSs) equipped with single antennae serve multiple single-antennae users via multi-carrier transmission mode. In this work, we propose a novel cooperative transmission scheme based on compress-and-forward with user pairing to solve the joint mixed integer programming problem. To maximize the system capacity under the limited backhaul, we formulate the joint optimization problem of user sorting, subcarrier mapping and backhaul resource sharing among different pairs (subcarriers for users). A novel robust and efficient centralized algorithm based on alternating optimization strategy and perfect mapping is proposed. Simulations show that our novel method can improve the system capacity significantly under the constraint of the backhaul resource compared with the blind alternatives. PMID:27077865

A discussion on the origin of quantum probabilities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Holik, Federico, E-mail: olentiev2@gmail.com; Departamento de Matemática - Ciclo Básico Común, Universidad de Buenos Aires - Pabellón III, Ciudad Universitaria, Buenos Aires; Sáenz, Manuel

We study the origin of quantum probabilities as arising from non-Boolean propositional-operational structures. We apply the method developed by Cox to non distributive lattices and develop an alternative formulation of non-Kolmogorovian probability measures for quantum mechanics. By generalizing the method presented in previous works, we outline a general framework for the deduction of probabilities in general propositional structures represented by lattices (including the non-distributive case). -- Highlights: •Several recent works use a derivation similar to that of R.T. Cox to obtain quantum probabilities. •We apply Cox’s method to the lattice of subspaces of the Hilbert space. •We obtain a derivationmore » of quantum probabilities which includes mixed states. •The method presented in this work is susceptible to generalization. •It includes quantum mechanics and classical mechanics as particular cases.« less

A Test Method for Monitoring Modulus Changes during Durability Tests on Building Joint Sealants

Treesearch

Christopher C. White; Donald L. Hunston; Kar Tean Tan; Gregory T. Schueneman

2012-01-01

The durability of building joint sealants is generally assessed using a descriptive methodology involving visual inspection of exposed specimens for defects. It is widely known that this methodology has inherent limitations, including that the results are qualitative. A new test method is proposed that provides more fundamental and quantitative information about...

On the apparent insignificance of the randomness of flexible joints on large space truss dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koch, R. M.; Klosner, J. M.

1993-01-01

Deployable periodic large space structures have been shown to exhibit high dynamic sensitivity to period-breaking imperfections and uncertainties. These can be brought on by manufacturing or assembly errors, structural imperfections, as well as nonlinear and/or nonconservative joint behavior. In addition, the necessity of precise pointing and position capability can require the consideration of these usually negligible and unknown parametric uncertainties and their effect on the overall dynamic response of large space structures. This work describes the use of a new design approach for the global dynamic solution of beam-like periodic space structures possessing parametric uncertainties. Specifically, the effect of random flexible joints on the free vibrations of simply-supported periodic large space trusses is considered. The formulation is a hybrid approach in terms of an extended Timoshenko beam continuum model, Monte Carlo simulation scheme, and first-order perturbation methods. The mean and mean-square response statistics for a variety of free random vibration problems are derived for various input random joint stiffness probability distributions. The results of this effort show that, although joint flexibility has a substantial effect on the modal dynamic response of periodic large space trusses, the effect of any reasonable uncertainty or randomness associated with these joint flexibilities is insignificant.

Probability and possibility-based representations of uncertainty in fault tree analysis.

PubMed

Flage, Roger; Baraldi, Piero; Zio, Enrico; Aven, Terje

2013-01-01

Expert knowledge is an important source of input to risk analysis. In practice, experts might be reluctant to characterize their knowledge and the related (epistemic) uncertainty using precise probabilities. The theory of possibility allows for imprecision in probability assignments. The associated possibilistic representation of epistemic uncertainty can be combined with, and transformed into, a probabilistic representation; in this article, we show this with reference to a simple fault tree analysis. We apply an integrated (hybrid) probabilistic-possibilistic computational framework for the joint propagation of the epistemic uncertainty on the values of the (limiting relative frequency) probabilities of the basic events of the fault tree, and we use possibility-probability (probability-possibility) transformations for propagating the epistemic uncertainty within purely probabilistic and possibilistic settings. The results of the different approaches (hybrid, probabilistic, and possibilistic) are compared with respect to the representation of uncertainty about the top event (limiting relative frequency) probability. Both the rationale underpinning the approaches and the computational efforts they require are critically examined. We conclude that the approaches relevant in a given setting depend on the purpose of the risk analysis, and that further research is required to make the possibilistic approaches operational in a risk analysis context. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

New method of determination of spot welding-adhesive joint fatigue life using full field strain evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sadowski, T.; Kneć, M.

2016-04-01

Fatigue tests were conducted since more than two hundred years ago. Despite this long period, as fatigue phenomena are very complex, assessment of fatigue response of standard materials or composites still requires a long time. Quite precise way to estimate fatigue parameters is to test at least 30 standardized specimens for the analysed material and further statistical post processing is required. In case of structural elements analysis like hybrid joints (Figure 1), the situation is much more complex as more factors influence the fatigue load capacity due to much more complicated structure of the joint in comparison to standard materials specimen, i.e. occurrence of: welded hot spots or rivets, adhesive layers, local notches creating the stress concentrations, etc. In order to shorten testing time some rapid methods are known: Locati's method [1] - step by step load increments up to failure, Prot's method [2] - constant increase of the load amplitude up to failure; Lehr's method [2] - seeking for the point during regular fatigue loading when an increase of temperature or strains become non-linear. The present article proposes new method of the fatigue response assessment - combination of the Locati's and Lehr's method.

Traumatic synovitis in a classical guitarist: a study of joint laxity.

PubMed

Bird, H A; Wright, V

1981-04-01

A classical guitarist performing for at least 5 hours each day developed a traumatic synovitis at the left wrist joint that was first erroneously considered to be rheumatoid arthritis. Comparison with members of the same guitar class suggested that unusual joint laxity of the fingers and wrist, probably inherited from the patient's father, was of more importance in the aetiology of the synovitis than a wide range of movement acquired by regular practice. Hyperextension of the metacarpophalangeal joint of the left index finger, quantified by the hyperextensometer, was less marked in the guitarists than in 100 normal individuals. This may be attributed to greater muscular control of the fingers. Lateral instability in the loaded joint may be the most important factor in the aetiology of traumatic synovitis.

Systems, Apparatuses, and Methods for Using Durable Adhesively Bonded Joints for Sandwich Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smeltzer, III, Stanley S. (Inventor); Lundgren, Eric C. (Inventor)

2014-01-01

Systems, methods, and apparatus for increasing durability of adhesively bonded joints in a sandwich structure. Such systems, methods, and apparatus includes an first face sheet and an second face sheet as well as an insert structure, the insert structure having a first insert face sheet, a second insert face sheet, and an insert core material. In addition, sandwich core material is arranged between the first face sheet and the second face sheet. A primary bondline may be coupled to the face sheet(s) and the splice. Further, systems, methods, and apparatus of the present disclosure advantageously reduce the load, provide a redundant path, reduce structural fatigue, and/or increase fatigue life.

Synchrony in Joint Action Is Directed by Each Participant’s Motor Control System

PubMed Central

Noy, Lior; Weiser, Netta; Friedman, Jason

2017-01-01

In this work, we ask how the probability of achieving synchrony in joint action is affected by the choice of motion parameters of each individual. We use the mirror game paradigm to study how changes in leader’s motion parameters, specifically frequency and peak velocity, affect the probability of entering the state of co-confidence (CC) motion: a dyadic state of synchronized, smooth and co-predictive motions. In order to systematically study this question, we used a one-person version of the mirror game, where the participant mirrored piece-wise rhythmic movements produced by a computer on a graphics tablet. We systematically varied the frequency and peak velocity of the movements to determine how these parameters affect the likelihood of synchronized joint action. To assess synchrony in the mirror game we used the previously developed marker of co-confident (CC) motions: smooth, jitter-less and synchronized motions indicative of co-predicative control. We found that when mirroring movements with low frequencies (i.e., long duration movements), the participants never showed CC, and as the frequency of the stimuli increased, the probability of observing CC also increased. This finding is discussed in the framework of motor control studies showing an upper limit on the duration of smooth motion. We confirmed the relationship between motion parameters and the probability to perform CC with three sets of data of open-ended two-player mirror games. These findings demonstrate that when performing movements together, there are optimal movement frequencies to use in order to maximize the possibility of entering a state of synchronized joint action. It also shows that the ability to perform synchronized joint action is constrained by the properties of our motor control systems. PMID:28443047

A Simple Joint Estimation Method of Residual Frequency Offset and Sampling Frequency Offset for DVB Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwon, Ki-Won; Cho, Yongsoo

This letter presents a simple joint estimation method for residual frequency offset (RFO) and sampling frequency offset (STO) in OFDM-based digital video broadcasting (DVB) systems. The proposed method selects a continual pilot (CP) subset from an unsymmetrically and non-uniformly distributed CP set to obtain an unbiased estimator. Simulation results show that the proposed method using a properly selected CP subset is unbiased and performs robustly.

Joint Bayesian Estimation of Quasar Continua and the Lyα Forest Flux Probability Distribution Function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eilers, Anna-Christina; Hennawi, Joseph F.; Lee, Khee-Gan

2017-08-01

We present a new Bayesian algorithm making use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling that allows us to simultaneously estimate the unknown continuum level of each quasar in an ensemble of high-resolution spectra, as well as their common probability distribution function (PDF) for the transmitted Lyα forest flux. This fully automated PDF regulated continuum fitting method models the unknown quasar continuum with a linear principal component analysis (PCA) basis, with the PCA coefficients treated as nuisance parameters. The method allows one to estimate parameters governing the thermal state of the intergalactic medium (IGM), such as the slope of the temperature-density relation γ -1, while marginalizing out continuum uncertainties in a fully Bayesian way. Using realistic mock quasar spectra created from a simplified semi-numerical model of the IGM, we show that this method recovers the underlying quasar continua to a precision of ≃ 7 % and ≃ 10 % at z = 3 and z = 5, respectively. Given the number of principal component spectra, this is comparable to the underlying accuracy of the PCA model itself. Most importantly, we show that we can achieve a nearly unbiased estimate of the slope γ -1 of the IGM temperature-density relation with a precision of +/- 8.6 % at z = 3 and +/- 6.1 % at z = 5, for an ensemble of ten mock high-resolution quasar spectra. Applying this method to real quasar spectra and comparing to a more realistic IGM model from hydrodynamical simulations would enable precise measurements of the thermal and cosmological parameters governing the IGM, albeit with somewhat larger uncertainties, given the increased flexibility of the model.

Joint de-blurring and nonuniformity correction method for infrared microscopy imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jara, Anselmo; Torres, Sergio; Machuca, Guillermo; Ramírez, Wagner; Gutiérrez, Pablo A.; Viafora, Laura A.; Godoy, Sebastián E.; Vera, Esteban

2018-05-01

In this work, we present a new technique to simultaneously reduce two major degradation artifacts found in mid-wavelength infrared microscopy imagery, namely the inherent focal-plane array nonuniformity noise and the scene defocus presented due to the point spread function of the infrared microscope. We correct both nuisances using a novel, recursive method that combines the constant range nonuniformity correction algorithm with a frame-by-frame deconvolution approach. The ability of the method to jointly compensate for both nonuniformity noise and blur is demonstrated using two different real mid-wavelength infrared microscopic video sequences, which were captured from two microscopic living organisms using a Janos-Sofradir mid-wavelength infrared microscopy setup. The performance of the proposed method is assessed on real and simulated infrared data by computing the root mean-square error and the roughness-laplacian pattern index, which was specifically developed for the present work.

A method for the automated construction of the joint system of equations to solve the problem of the flow distribution in hydraulic networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Novikov, A. E.

1993-10-01

There are several methods of solving the problem of the flow distribution in hydraulic networks. But all these methods have no mathematical tools for forming joint systems of equations to solve this problem. This paper suggests a method of constructing joint systems of equations to calculate hydraulic circuits of the arbitrary form. The graph concept, according to Kirchhoff, has been introduced.

Joint modelling compared with two stage methods for analysing longitudinal data and prospective outcomes: A simulation study of childhood growth and BP.

PubMed

Sayers, A; Heron, J; Smith, Adac; Macdonald-Wallis, C; Gilthorpe, M S; Steele, F; Tilling, K

2017-02-01

There is a growing debate with regards to the appropriate methods of analysis of growth trajectories and their association with prospective dependent outcomes. Using the example of childhood growth and adult BP, we conducted an extensive simulation study to explore four two-stage and two joint modelling methods, and compared their bias and coverage in estimation of the (unconditional) association between birth length and later BP, and the association between growth rate and later BP (conditional on birth length). We show that the two-stage method of using multilevel models to estimate growth parameters and relating these to outcome gives unbiased estimates of the conditional associations between growth and outcome. Using simulations, we demonstrate that the simple methods resulted in bias in the presence of measurement error, as did the two-stage multilevel method when looking at the total (unconditional) association of birth length with outcome. The two joint modelling methods gave unbiased results, but using the re-inflated residuals led to undercoverage of the confidence intervals. We conclude that either joint modelling or the simpler two-stage multilevel approach can be used to estimate conditional associations between growth and later outcomes, but that only joint modelling is unbiased with nominal coverage for unconditional associations.

Joint state and parameter estimation of the hemodynamic model by particle smoother expectation maximization method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aslan, Serdar; Taylan Cemgil, Ali; Akın, Ata

2016-08-01

Objective. In this paper, we aimed for the robust estimation of the parameters and states of the hemodynamic model by using blood oxygen level dependent signal. Approach. In the fMRI literature, there are only a few successful methods that are able to make a joint estimation of the states and parameters of the hemodynamic model. In this paper, we implemented a maximum likelihood based method called the particle smoother expectation maximization (PSEM) algorithm for the joint state and parameter estimation. Main results. Former sequential Monte Carlo methods were only reliable in the hemodynamic state estimates. They were claimed to outperform the local linearization (LL) filter and the extended Kalman filter (EKF). The PSEM algorithm is compared with the most successful method called square-root cubature Kalman smoother (SCKS) for both state and parameter estimation. SCKS was found to be better than the dynamic expectation maximization (DEM) algorithm, which was shown to be a better estimator than EKF, LL and particle filters. Significance. PSEM was more accurate than SCKS for both the state and the parameter estimation. Hence, PSEM seems to be the most accurate method for the system identification and state estimation for the hemodynamic model inversion literature. This paper do not compare its results with Tikhonov-regularized Newton—CKF (TNF-CKF), a recent robust method which works in filtering sense.

[Determination of joint contact area using MRI].

PubMed

Yoshida, Hidenori; Kobayashi, Koichi; Sakamoto, Makoto; Tanabe, Yuji

2009-10-20

Elevated contact stress on the articular joints has been hypothesized to contribute to articular cartilage wear and joint pain. However, given the limitations of using contact stress and areas from human cadaver specimens to estimate articular joint stress, there is need for an in vivo method to obtain such data. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) has been shown to be a valid method of quantifying the human joint contact area, indicating the potential for in vivo assessment. The purpose of this study was to describe a method of quantifying the tibiofemoral joint contact area using MRI. The validity of this technique was established in porcine cadaver specimens by comparing the contact area obtained from MRI with the contact area obtained using pressure-sensitive film (PSF). In particular, we assessed the actual condition of contact by using the ratio of signal intensity of MR images of cartilage surfaces. Two fresh porcine cadaver knees were used. A custom loading apparatus was designed to apply a compressive load to the tibiofemoral joint. We measured the contact area by using MRI and PSF methods. When the ratio of signal intensity of the cartilage surface was 0.9, the error of the contact area between the MR image and PSF was about 6%. These results suggest that this MRI method may be a valuable tool in quantifying joint contact area in vivo.

Probabilistic Density Function Method for Stochastic ODEs of Power Systems with Uncertain Power Input

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Peng; Barajas-Solano, David A.; Constantinescu, Emil

Wind and solar power generators are commonly described by a system of stochastic ordinary differential equations (SODEs) where random input parameters represent uncertainty in wind and solar energy. The existing methods for SODEs are mostly limited to delta-correlated random parameters (white noise). Here we use the Probability Density Function (PDF) method for deriving a closed-form deterministic partial differential equation (PDE) for the joint probability density function of the SODEs describing a power generator with time-correlated power input. The resulting PDE is solved numerically. A good agreement with Monte Carlo Simulations shows accuracy of the PDF method.

Virtual Passive Controller for Robot Systems Using Joint Torque Sensors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aldridge, Hal A.; Juang, Jer-Nan

1997-01-01

This paper presents a control method based on virtual passive dynamic control that will stabilize a robot manipulator using joint torque sensors and a simple joint model. The method does not require joint position or velocity feedback for stabilization. The proposed control method is stable in the sense of Lyaponov. The control method was implemented on several joints of a laboratory robot. The controller showed good stability robustness to system parameter error and to the exclusion of nonlinear dynamic effects on the joints. The controller enhanced position tracking performance and, in the absence of position control, dissipated joint energy.

A sensitivity analysis method for the body segment inertial parameters based on ground reaction and joint moment regressor matrices.

PubMed

Futamure, Sumire; Bonnet, Vincent; Dumas, Raphael; Venture, Gentiane

2017-11-07

This paper presents a method allowing a simple and efficient sensitivity analysis of dynamics parameters of complex whole-body human model. The proposed method is based on the ground reaction and joint moment regressor matrices, developed initially in robotics system identification theory, and involved in the equations of motion of the human body. The regressor matrices are linear relatively to the segment inertial parameters allowing us to use simple sensitivity analysis methods. The sensitivity analysis method was applied over gait dynamics and kinematics data of nine subjects and with a 15 segments 3D model of the locomotor apparatus. According to the proposed sensitivity indices, 76 segments inertial parameters out the 150 of the mechanical model were considered as not influent for gait. The main findings were that the segment masses were influent and that, at the exception of the trunk, moment of inertia were not influent for the computation of the ground reaction forces and moments and the joint moments. The same method also shows numerically that at least 90% of the lower-limb joint moments during the stance phase can be estimated only from a force-plate and kinematics data without knowing any of the segment inertial parameters. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Centralized Multi-Sensor Square Root Cubature Joint Probabilistic Data Association

PubMed Central

Liu, Jun; Li, Gang; Qi, Lin; Li, Yaowen; He, You

2017-01-01

This paper focuses on the tracking problem of multiple targets with multiple sensors in a nonlinear cluttered environment. To avoid Jacobian matrix computation and scaling parameter adjustment, improve numerical stability, and acquire more accurate estimated results for centralized nonlinear tracking, a novel centralized multi-sensor square root cubature joint probabilistic data association algorithm (CMSCJPDA) is proposed. Firstly, the multi-sensor tracking problem is decomposed into several single-sensor multi-target tracking problems, which are sequentially processed during the estimation. Then, in each sensor, the assignment of its measurements to target tracks is accomplished on the basis of joint probabilistic data association (JPDA), and a weighted probability fusion method with square root version of a cubature Kalman filter (SRCKF) is utilized to estimate the targets’ state. With the measurements in all sensors processed CMSCJPDA is derived and the global estimated state is achieved. Experimental results show that CMSCJPDA is superior to the state-of-the-art algorithms in the aspects of tracking accuracy, numerical stability, and computational cost, which provides a new idea to solve multi-sensor tracking problems. PMID:29113085

Centralized Multi-Sensor Square Root Cubature Joint Probabilistic Data Association.

PubMed

Liu, Yu; Liu, Jun; Li, Gang; Qi, Lin; Li, Yaowen; He, You

2017-11-05

This paper focuses on the tracking problem of multiple targets with multiple sensors in a nonlinear cluttered environment. To avoid Jacobian matrix computation and scaling parameter adjustment, improve numerical stability, and acquire more accurate estimated results for centralized nonlinear tracking, a novel centralized multi-sensor square root cubature joint probabilistic data association algorithm (CMSCJPDA) is proposed. Firstly, the multi-sensor tracking problem is decomposed into several single-sensor multi-target tracking problems, which are sequentially processed during the estimation. Then, in each sensor, the assignment of its measurements to target tracks is accomplished on the basis of joint probabilistic data association (JPDA), and a weighted probability fusion method with square root version of a cubature Kalman filter (SRCKF) is utilized to estimate the targets' state. With the measurements in all sensors processed CMSCJPDA is derived and the global estimated state is achieved. Experimental results show that CMSCJPDA is superior to the state-of-the-art algorithms in the aspects of tracking accuracy, numerical stability, and computational cost, which provides a new idea to solve multi-sensor tracking problems.

Probability density function modeling of scalar mixing from concentrated sources in turbulent channel flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bakosi, J.; Franzese, P.; Boybeyi, Z.

2007-11-01

Dispersion of a passive scalar from concentrated sources in fully developed turbulent channel flow is studied with the probability density function (PDF) method. The joint PDF of velocity, turbulent frequency and scalar concentration is represented by a large number of Lagrangian particles. A stochastic near-wall PDF model combines the generalized Langevin model of Haworth and Pope [Phys. Fluids 29, 387 (1986)] with Durbin's [J. Fluid Mech. 249, 465 (1993)] method of elliptic relaxation to provide a mathematically exact treatment of convective and viscous transport with a nonlocal representation of the near-wall Reynolds stress anisotropy. The presence of walls is incorporated through the imposition of no-slip and impermeability conditions on particles without the use of damping or wall-functions. Information on the turbulent time scale is supplied by the gamma-distribution model of van Slooten et al. [Phys. Fluids 10, 246 (1998)]. Two different micromixing models are compared that incorporate the effect of small scale mixing on the transported scalar: the widely used interaction by exchange with the mean and the interaction by exchange with the conditional mean model. Single-point velocity and concentration statistics are compared to direct numerical simulation and experimental data at Reτ=1080 based on the friction velocity and the channel half width. The joint model accurately reproduces a wide variety of conditional and unconditional statistics in both physical and composition space.

Scalable Joint Segmentation and Registration Framework for Infant Brain Images.

PubMed

Dong, Pei; Wang, Li; Lin, Weili; Shen, Dinggang; Wu, Guorong

2017-03-15

The first year of life is the most dynamic and perhaps the most critical phase of postnatal brain development. The ability to accurately measure structure changes is critical in early brain development study, which highly relies on the performances of image segmentation and registration techniques. However, either infant image segmentation or registration, if deployed independently, encounters much more challenges than segmentation/registration of adult brains due to dynamic appearance change with rapid brain development. In fact, image segmentation and registration of infant images can assists each other to overcome the above challenges by using the growth trajectories (i.e., temporal correspondences) learned from a large set of training subjects with complete longitudinal data. Specifically, a one-year-old image with ground-truth tissue segmentation can be first set as the reference domain. Then, to register the infant image of a new subject at earlier age, we can estimate its tissue probability maps, i.e., with sparse patch-based multi-atlas label fusion technique, where only the training images at the respective age are considered as atlases since they have similar image appearance. Next, these probability maps can be fused as a good initialization to guide the level set segmentation. Thus, image registration between the new infant image and the reference image is free of difficulty of appearance changes, by establishing correspondences upon the reasonably segmented images. Importantly, the segmentation of new infant image can be further enhanced by propagating the much more reliable label fusion heuristics at the reference domain to the corresponding location of the new infant image via the learned growth trajectories, which brings image segmentation and registration to assist each other. It is worth noting that our joint segmentation and registration framework is also flexible to handle the registration of any two infant images even with significant age gap

Traumatic synovitis in a classical guitarist: a study of joint laxity.

PubMed Central

Bird, H A; Wright, V

1981-01-01

A classical guitarist performing for at least 5 hours each day developed a traumatic synovitis at the left wrist joint that was first erroneously considered to be rheumatoid arthritis. Comparison with members of the same guitar class suggested that unusual joint laxity of the fingers and wrist, probably inherited from the patient's father, was of more importance in the aetiology of the synovitis than a wide range of movement acquired by regular practice. Hyperextension of the metacarpophalangeal joint of the left index finger, quantified by the hyperextensometer, was less marked in the guitarists than in 100 normal individuals. This may be attributed to greater muscular control of the fingers. Lateral instability in the loaded joint may be the most important factor in the aetiology of traumatic synovitis. Images PMID:7224687

Grinding assembly, grinding apparatus, weld joint defect repair system, and methods

DOEpatents

Larsen, Eric D.; Watkins, Arthur D.; Bitsoi, Rodney J.; Pace, David P.

2005-09-27

A grinding assembly for grinding a weld joint of a workpiece includes a grinder apparatus, a grinder apparatus includes a grinding wheel configured to grind the weld joint, a member configured to receive the grinding wheel, the member being configured to be removably attached to the grinder apparatus, and a sensor assembly configured to detect a contact between the grinding wheel and the workpiece. The grinding assembly also includes a processing circuitry in communication with the grinder apparatus and configured to control operations of the grinder apparatus, the processing circuitry configured to receive weld defect information of the weld joint from an inspection assembly to create a contour grinding profile to grind the weld joint in a predetermined shape based on the received weld defect information, and a manipulator having an end configured to carry the grinder apparatus, the manipulator further configured to operate in multiple dimensions.

Evaluation of Wavelet Denoising Methods for Small-Scale Joint Roughness Estimation Using Terrestrial Laser Scanning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bitenc, M.; Kieffer, D. S.; Khoshelham, K.

2015-08-01

The precision of Terrestrial Laser Scanning (TLS) data depends mainly on the inherent random range error, which hinders extraction of small details from TLS measurements. New post processing algorithms have been developed that reduce or eliminate the noise and therefore enable modelling details at a smaller scale than one would traditionally expect. The aim of this research is to find the optimum denoising method such that the corrected TLS data provides a reliable estimation of small-scale rock joint roughness. Two wavelet-based denoising methods are considered, namely Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) and Stationary Wavelet Transform (SWT), in combination with different thresholding procedures. The question is, which technique provides a more accurate roughness estimates considering (i) wavelet transform (SWT or DWT), (ii) thresholding method (fixed-form or penalised low) and (iii) thresholding mode (soft or hard). The performance of denoising methods is tested by two analyses, namely method noise and method sensitivity to noise. The reference data are precise Advanced TOpometric Sensor (ATOS) measurements obtained on 20 × 30 cm rock joint sample, which are for the second analysis corrupted by different levels of noise. With such a controlled noise level experiments it is possible to evaluate the methods' performance for different amounts of noise, which might be present in TLS data. Qualitative visual checks of denoised surfaces and quantitative parameters such as grid height and roughness are considered in a comparative analysis of denoising methods. Results indicate that the preferred method for realistic roughness estimation is DWT with penalised low hard thresholding.

Comparison of the use of a notched wedge joint vs. traditional butt joints in Connecticut : phase 1 report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-05-14

Performance of Hot Mix Asphalt (HMA) longitudinal joints have been an : item of increasing scrutiny in Connecticut. The traditional butt joint : has typically been the method used in Connecticut. These joints have : been reportedly opening up creatin...

High hydrostatic pressures in traumatic joints require elevated synovial capillary pressure probably associated with arteriolar vasodilatation.

PubMed

Ahlqvist, J; Harilainen, A; Aalto, K; Sarna, S; Lalla, M; Osterlund, K

1994-11-01

Three out of the four Starling pressures were determined at arthroscopy of traumatic effusions of the knee. The range of the joint fluid hydrostatic pressure Pjoint was 5-83 cmH2O (0.5-8.1 kPa, 4-61 mmHg), that of the colloid osmotic pressure difference COPplasma-COPjoint 0-21.7 cmH2O. In 11 of 15 cases the sum Pjoint+COP difference exceeded 32.6 cmH2O (3.19 kPa, 24 mmHg), a high estimate of average capillary pressure at the level of the heart. The number of 'exceeding' cases was 8/15 if only 80% of the COP difference was considered effective. Pjoint and the COP difference oppose filtration of fluid from plasma into joints, indicating that mean capillary pressure, the only Starling pressure not determined, was elevated unless the effusions were being resorbed back into the blood. The findings can be explained by tamponade compensated by arteriolar vasodilatation, suspected to be metabolically mediated.

Probability distribution of haplotype frequencies under the two-locus Wright-Fisher model by diffusion approximation.

PubMed

Boitard, Simon; Loisel, Patrice

2007-05-01

The probability distribution of haplotype frequencies in a population, and the way it is influenced by genetical forces such as recombination, selection, random drift ...is a question of fundamental interest in population genetics. For large populations, the distribution of haplotype frequencies for two linked loci under the classical Wright-Fisher model is almost impossible to compute because of numerical reasons. However the Wright-Fisher process can in such cases be approximated by a diffusion process and the transition density can then be deduced from the Kolmogorov equations. As no exact solution has been found for these equations, we developed a numerical method based on finite differences to solve them. It applies to transient states and models including selection or mutations. We show by several tests that this method is accurate for computing the conditional joint density of haplotype frequencies given that no haplotype has been lost. We also prove that it is far less time consuming than other methods such as Monte Carlo simulations.

Joint genome-wide prediction in several populations accounting for randomness of genotypes: A hierarchical Bayes approach. I: Multivariate Gaussian priors for marker effects and derivation of the joint probability mass function of genotypes.

PubMed

Martínez, Carlos Alberto; Khare, Kshitij; Banerjee, Arunava; Elzo, Mauricio A

2017-03-21

It is important to consider heterogeneity of marker effects and allelic frequencies in across population genome-wide prediction studies. Moreover, all regression models used in genome-wide prediction overlook randomness of genotypes. In this study, a family of hierarchical Bayesian models to perform across population genome-wide prediction modeling genotypes as random variables and allowing population-specific effects for each marker was developed. Models shared a common structure and differed in the priors used and the assumption about residual variances (homogeneous or heterogeneous). Randomness of genotypes was accounted for by deriving the joint probability mass function of marker genotypes conditional on allelic frequencies and pedigree information. As a consequence, these models incorporated kinship and genotypic information that not only permitted to account for heterogeneity of allelic frequencies, but also to include individuals with missing genotypes at some or all loci without the need for previous imputation. This was possible because the non-observed fraction of the design matrix was treated as an unknown model parameter. For each model, a simpler version ignoring population structure, but still accounting for randomness of genotypes was proposed. Implementation of these models and computation of some criteria for model comparison were illustrated using two simulated datasets. Theoretical and computational issues along with possible applications, extensions and refinements were discussed. Some features of the models developed in this study make them promising for genome-wide prediction, the use of information contained in the probability distribution of genotypes is perhaps the most appealing. Further studies to assess the performance of the models proposed here and also to compare them with conventional models used in genome-wide prediction are needed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Real-time individual predictions of prostate cancer recurrence using joint models

PubMed Central

Taylor, Jeremy M. G.; Park, Yongseok; Ankerst, Donna P.; Proust-Lima, Cecile; Williams, Scott; Kestin, Larry; Bae, Kyoungwha; Pickles, Tom; Sandler, Howard

2012-01-01

Summary Patients who were previously treated for prostate cancer with radiation therapy are monitored at regular intervals using a laboratory test called Prostate Specific Antigen (PSA). If the value of the PSA test starts to rise, this is an indication that the prostate cancer is more likely to recur, and the patient may wish to initiate new treatments. Such patients could be helped in making medical decisions by an accurate estimate of the probability of recurrence of the cancer in the next few years. In this paper, we describe the methodology for giving the probability of recurrence for a new patient, as implemented on a web-based calculator. The methods use a joint longitudinal survival model. The model is developed on a training dataset of 2,386 patients and tested on a dataset of 846 patients. Bayesian estimation methods are used with one Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm developed for estimation of the parameters from the training dataset and a second quick MCMC developed for prediction of the risk of recurrence that uses the longitudinal PSA measures from a new patient. PMID:23379600

Technology-Enhanced Interactive Teaching of Marginal, Joint and Conditional Probabilities: The Special Case of Bivariate Normal Distribution

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dinov, Ivo D.; Kamino, Scott; Bhakhrani, Bilal; Christou, Nicolas

2013-01-01

Data analysis requires subtle probability reasoning to answer questions like "What is the chance of event A occurring, given that event B was observed?" This generic question arises in discussions of many intriguing scientific questions such as "What is the probability that an adolescent weighs between 120 and 140 pounds given that…

Probability genotype imputation method and integrated weighted lasso for QTL identification.

PubMed

Demetrashvili, Nino; Van den Heuvel, Edwin R; Wit, Ernst C

2013-12-30

Many QTL studies have two common features: (1) often there is missing marker information, (2) among many markers involved in the biological process only a few are causal. In statistics, the second issue falls under the headings "sparsity" and "causal inference". The goal of this work is to develop a two-step statistical methodology for QTL mapping for markers with binary genotypes. The first step introduces a novel imputation method for missing genotypes. Outcomes of the proposed imputation method are probabilities which serve as weights to the second step, namely in weighted lasso. The sparse phenotype inference is employed to select a set of predictive markers for the trait of interest. Simulation studies validate the proposed methodology under a wide range of realistic settings. Furthermore, the methodology outperforms alternative imputation and variable selection methods in such studies. The methodology was applied to an Arabidopsis experiment, containing 69 markers for 165 recombinant inbred lines of a F8 generation. The results confirm previously identified regions, however several new markers are also found. On the basis of the inferred ROC behavior these markers show good potential for being real, especially for the germination trait Gmax. Our imputation method shows higher accuracy in terms of sensitivity and specificity compared to alternative imputation method. Also, the proposed weighted lasso outperforms commonly practiced multiple regression as well as the traditional lasso and adaptive lasso with three weighting schemes. This means that under realistic missing data settings this methodology can be used for QTL identification.

Joint Inversion of 1-D Magnetotelluric and Surface-Wave Dispersion Data with an Improved Multi-Objective Genetic Algorithm and Application to the Data of the Longmenshan Fault Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Pingping; Tan, Handong; Peng, Miao; Ma, Huan; Wang, Mao

2018-05-01

Magnetotellurics and seismic surface waves are two prominent geophysical methods for deep underground exploration. Joint inversion of these two datasets can help enhance the accuracy of inversion. In this paper, we describe a method for developing an improved multi-objective genetic algorithm (NSGA-SBX) and applying it to two numerical tests to verify the advantages of the algorithm. Our findings show that joint inversion with the NSGA-SBX method can improve the inversion results by strengthening structural coupling when the discontinuities of the electrical and velocity models are consistent, and in case of inconsistent discontinuities between these models, joint inversion can retain the advantages of individual inversions. By applying the algorithm to four detection points along the Longmenshan fault zone, we observe several features. The Sichuan Basin demonstrates low S-wave velocity and high conductivity in the shallow crust probably due to thick sedimentary layers. The eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau shows high velocity and high resistivity in the shallow crust, while two low velocity layers and a high conductivity layer are observed in the middle lower crust, probably indicating the mid-crustal channel flow. Along the Longmenshan fault zone, a high conductivity layer from 8 to 20 km is observed beneath the northern segment and decreases with depth beneath the middle segment, which might be caused by the elevated fluid content of the fault zone.

INVESTIGATING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF KINESIO® TAPING SPACE CORRECTION METHOD IN HEALTHY ADULTS ON PATELLOFEMORAL JOINT AND SUBCUTANEOUS SPACE.

PubMed

Lyman, Katie J; Keister, Kassiann; Gange, Kara; Mellinger, Christopher D; Hanson, Thomas A

2017-04-01

Limited quantitative, physiological evidence exists regarding the effectiveness of Kinesio® Taping methods, particularly with respect to the potential ability to impact underlying physiological joint space and structures. To better understand the impact of these techniques, the underlying physiological processes must be investigated in addition to the examination of more subjective measures related to pain in unhealthy tissues. The purpose of this study was to determine whether the Kinesio® Taping Space Correction Method created a significant difference in patellofemoral joint space, as quantified by diagnostic ultrasound. Pre-test/post-test prospective cohort study. Thirty-two participants with bilaterally healthy knees and no past history of surgery took part in the study. For each participant, diagnostic ultrasound was utilized to collect three measurements: the patellofemoral joint space, the distance from the skin to the superficial patella, and distance from the skin to the patellar tendon. The Kinesio® Taping Space Correction Method was then applied. After a ten-minute waiting period in a non-weight bearing position, all three measurements were repeated. Each participant served as his or her own control. Paired t tests showed a statistically significant difference (mean difference = 1.1 mm, t [3,1]  = 2.823, p  = 0.008, g  = .465) between baseline and taped conditions in the space between the posterior surface of the patella to the medial femoral condyle. Neither the distance from the skin to the superficial patella nor the distance from the skin to the patellar tendon increased to a statistically significant degree. The application of the Kinesio® Taping Space Correction Method increases the patellofemoral joint space in healthy adults by increasing the distance between the patella and the medial femoral condyle, though it does not increase the distance from the skin to the superficial patella nor to the patellar tendon. 3.

Predicting the Probability of Failure of Cementitious Sewer Pipes Using Stochastic Finite Element Method

PubMed Central

Alani, Amir M.; Faramarzi, Asaad

2015-01-01

In this paper, a stochastic finite element method (SFEM) is employed to investigate the probability of failure of cementitious buried sewer pipes subjected to combined effect of corrosion and stresses. A non-linear time-dependant model is used to determine the extent of concrete corrosion. Using the SFEM, the effects of different random variables, including loads, pipe material, and corrosion on the remaining safe life of the cementitious sewer pipes are explored. A numerical example is presented to demonstrate the merit of the proposed SFEM in evaluating the effects of the contributing parameters upon the probability of failure of cementitious sewer pipes. The developed SFEM offers many advantages over traditional probabilistic techniques since it does not use any empirical equations in order to determine failure of pipes. The results of the SFEM can help the concerning industry (e.g., water companies) to better plan their resources by providing accurate prediction for the remaining safe life of cementitious sewer pipes. PMID:26068092

Movement of the sacroiliac joint during the Active Straight Leg Raise test in patients with long-lasting severe sacroiliac joint pain.

PubMed

Kibsgård, Thomas J; Röhrl, Stephan M; Røise, Olav; Sturesson, Bengt; Stuge, Britt

2017-08-01

The Active Straight Leg Raise is a functional test used in the assessment of pelvic girdle pain, and has shown to have good validity, reliability and responsiveness. The Active Straight Leg Raise is considered to examine the patients' ability to transfer load through the pelvis. It has been hypothesized that patients with pelvic girdle pain lack the ability to stabilize the pelvic girdle, probably due to instability or increased movement of the sacroiliac joint. This study examines the movement of the sacroiliac joints during the Active Straight Leg Raise in patients with pelvic girdle pain. Tantalum markers were inserted in the dorsal sacrum and ilium of 12 patients with long-lasting pelvic girdle pain scheduled for sacroiliac joint fusion surgery. Two to three weeks later movement of the sacroiliac joints during the Active Straight Leg Raise was measured with radiostereometric analysis. Small movements were detected. There was larger movement of the sacroiliac joint of the rested leg's sacroiliac joint compared to the lifted leg's side. A mean backward rotation of 0.8° and inward tilt of 0.3° were seen in the rested leg's sacroiliac joint. The movements of the sacroiliac joints during the Active Straight Leg Raise are small. There was a small backward rotation of the innominate bone relative to sacrum on the rested leg's side. Our findings contradict an earlier understanding that a forward rotation of the lifted leg's innominate occur while performing the Active Straight Leg Raise. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Modeling Progressive Failure of Bonded Joints Using a Single Joint Finite Element

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stapleton, Scott E.; Waas, Anthony M.; Bednarcyk, Brett A.

2010-01-01

Enhanced finite elements are elements with an embedded analytical solution which can capture detailed local fields, enabling more efficient, mesh-independent finite element analysis. In the present study, an enhanced finite element is applied to generate a general framework capable of modeling an array of joint types. The joint field equations are derived using the principle of minimum potential energy, and the resulting solutions for the displacement fields are used to generate shape functions and a stiffness matrix for a single joint finite element. This single finite element thus captures the detailed stress and strain fields within the bonded joint, but it can function within a broader structural finite element model. The costs associated with a fine mesh of the joint can thus be avoided while still obtaining a detailed solution for the joint. Additionally, the capability to model non-linear adhesive constitutive behavior has been included within the method, and progressive failure of the adhesive can be modeled by using a strain-based failure criteria and re-sizing the joint as the adhesive fails. Results of the model compare favorably with experimental and finite element results.

Probability Issues in without Replacement Sampling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Joarder, A. H.; Al-Sabah, W. S.

2007-01-01

Sampling without replacement is an important aspect in teaching conditional probabilities in elementary statistics courses. Different methods proposed in different texts for calculating probabilities of events in this context are reviewed and their relative merits and limitations in applications are pinpointed. An alternative representation of…

Tackling missing radiographic progression data: multiple imputation technique compared with inverse probability weights and complete case analysis.

PubMed

Descalzo, Miguel Á; Garcia, Virginia Villaverde; González-Alvaro, Isidoro; Carbonell, Jordi; Balsa, Alejandro; Sanmartí, Raimon; Lisbona, Pilar; Hernandez-Barrera, Valentín; Jiménez-Garcia, Rodrigo; Carmona, Loreto

2013-02-01

To describe the results of different statistical ways of addressing radiographic outcome affected by missing data--multiple imputation technique, inverse probability weights and complete case analysis--using data from an observational study. A random sample of 96 RA patients was selected for a follow-up study in which radiographs of hands and feet were scored. Radiographic progression was tested by comparing the change in the total Sharp-van der Heijde radiographic score (TSS) and the joint erosion score (JES) from baseline to the end of the second year of follow-up. MI technique, inverse probability weights in weighted estimating equation (WEE) and CC analysis were used to fit a negative binomial regression. Major predictors of radiographic progression were JES and joint space narrowing (JSN) at baseline, together with baseline disease activity measured by DAS28 for TSS and MTX use for JES. Results from CC analysis show larger coefficients and s.e.s compared with MI and weighted techniques. The results from the WEE model were quite in line with those of MI. If it seems plausible that CC or MI analysis may be valid, then MI should be preferred because of its greater efficiency. CC analysis resulted in inefficient estimates or, translated into non-statistical terminology, could guide us into inaccurate results and unwise conclusions. The methods discussed here will contribute to the use of alternative approaches for tackling missing data in observational studies.

Probability Quantization for Multiplication-Free Binary Arithmetic Coding

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cheung, K. -M.

1995-01-01

A method has been developed to improve on Witten's binary arithmetic coding procedure of tracking a high value and a low value. The new method approximates the probability of the less probable symbol, which improves the worst-case coding efficiency.

Optimizing probability of detection point estimate demonstration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koshti, Ajay M.

2017-04-01

The paper provides discussion on optimizing probability of detection (POD) demonstration experiments using point estimate method. The optimization is performed to provide acceptable value for probability of passing demonstration (PPD) and achieving acceptable value for probability of false (POF) calls while keeping the flaw sizes in the set as small as possible. POD Point estimate method is used by NASA for qualifying special NDE procedures. The point estimate method uses binomial distribution for probability density. Normally, a set of 29 flaws of same size within some tolerance are used in the demonstration. Traditionally largest flaw size in the set is considered to be a conservative estimate of the flaw size with minimum 90% probability and 95% confidence. The flaw size is denoted as α90/95PE. The paper investigates relationship between range of flaw sizes in relation to α90, i.e. 90% probability flaw size, to provide a desired PPD. The range of flaw sizes is expressed as a proportion of the standard deviation of the probability density distribution. Difference between median or average of the 29 flaws and α90 is also expressed as a proportion of standard deviation of the probability density distribution. In general, it is concluded that, if probability of detection increases with flaw size, average of 29 flaw sizes would always be larger than or equal to α90 and is an acceptable measure of α90/95PE. If NDE technique has sufficient sensitivity and signal-to-noise ratio, then the 29 flaw-set can be optimized to meet requirements of minimum required PPD, maximum allowable POF, requirements on flaw size tolerance about mean flaw size and flaw size detectability requirements. The paper provides procedure for optimizing flaw sizes in the point estimate demonstration flaw-set.

Three-Dimensional Geometric Nonlinear Contact Stress Analysis of Riveted Joints

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shivakumar, Kunigal N.; Ramanujapuram, Vivek

1998-01-01

The problems associated with fatigue were brought into the forefront of research by the explosive decompression and structural failure of the Aloha Airlines Flight 243 in 1988. The structural failure of this airplane has been attributed to debonding and multiple cracking along the longitudinal lap splice riveted joint in the fuselage. This crash created what may be termed as a minor "Structural Integrity Revolution" in the commercial transport industry. Major steps have been taken by the manufacturers, operators and authorities to improve the structural airworthiness of the aging fleet of airplanes. Notwithstanding, this considerable effort there are still outstanding issues and concerns related to the formulation of Widespread Fatigue Damage which is believed to have been a contributing factor in the probable cause of the Aloha accident. The lesson from this accident was that Multiple-Site Damage (MSD) in "aging" aircraft can lead to extensive aircraft damage. A strong candidate in which MSD is highly probable to occur is the riveted lap joint.

A comparison of Probability Of Detection (POD) data determined using different statistical methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fahr, A.; Forsyth, D.; Bullock, M.

1993-12-01

Different statistical methods have been suggested for determining probability of detection (POD) data for nondestructive inspection (NDI) techniques. A comparative assessment of various methods of determining POD was conducted using results of three NDI methods obtained by inspecting actual aircraft engine compressor disks which contained service induced cracks. The study found that the POD and 95 percent confidence curves as a function of crack size as well as the 90/95 percent crack length vary depending on the statistical method used and the type of data. The distribution function as well as the parameter estimation procedure used for determining POD and the confidence bound must be included when referencing information such as the 90/95 percent crack length. The POD curves and confidence bounds determined using the range interval method are very dependent on information that is not from the inspection data. The maximum likelihood estimators (MLE) method does not require such information and the POD results are more reasonable. The log-logistic function appears to model POD of hit/miss data relatively well and is easy to implement. The log-normal distribution using MLE provides more realistic POD results and is the preferred method. Although it is more complicated and slower to calculate, it can be implemented on a common spreadsheet program.

An automatic 2D–3D image matching method for reproducing spatial knee joint positions using single or dual fluoroscopic images

PubMed Central

Zhu, Zhonglin; Li, Guoan

2013-01-01

Fluoroscopic image technique, using either a single image or dual images, has been widely applied to measure in vivo human knee joint kinematics. However, few studies have compared the advantages of using single and dual fluoroscopic images. Furthermore, due to the size limitation of the image intensifiers, it is possible that only a portion of the knee joint could be captured by the fluoroscopy during dynamic knee joint motion. In this paper, we presented a systematic evaluation of an automatic 2D–3D image matching method in reproducing spatial knee joint positions using either single or dual fluoroscopic image techniques. The data indicated that for the femur and tibia, their spatial positions could be determined with an accuracy and precision less than 0.2 mm in translation and less than 0.4° in orientation when dual fluoroscopic images were used. Using single fluoroscopic images, the method could produce satisfactory accuracy in joint positions in the imaging plane (average up to 0.5 mm in translation and 1.3° in rotation), but large variations along the out-plane direction (in average up to 4.0 mm in translation and 2.28 in rotation). The precision of using single fluoroscopic images to determine the actual knee positions was worse than its accuracy obtained. The data also indicated that when using dual fluoroscopic image technique, if the knee joint outlines in one image were incomplete by 80%, the algorithm could still reproduce the joint positions with high precisions. PMID:21806411

Monte Carlo method for computing density of states and quench probability of potential energy and enthalpy landscapes.

PubMed

Mauro, John C; Loucks, Roger J; Balakrishnan, Jitendra; Raghavan, Srikanth

2007-05-21

The thermodynamics and kinetics of a many-body system can be described in terms of a potential energy landscape in multidimensional configuration space. The partition function of such a landscape can be written in terms of a density of states, which can be computed using a variety of Monte Carlo techniques. In this paper, a new self-consistent Monte Carlo method for computing density of states is described that uses importance sampling and a multiplicative update factor to achieve rapid convergence. The technique is then applied to compute the equilibrium quench probability of the various inherent structures (minima) in the landscape. The quench probability depends on both the potential energy of the inherent structure and the volume of its corresponding basin in configuration space. Finally, the methodology is extended to the isothermal-isobaric ensemble in order to compute inherent structure quench probabilities in an enthalpy landscape.

Probability techniques for reliability analysis of composite materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wetherhold, Robert C.; Ucci, Anthony M.

1994-01-01

Traditional design approaches for composite materials have employed deterministic criteria for failure analysis. New approaches are required to predict the reliability of composite structures since strengths and stresses may be random variables. This report will examine and compare methods used to evaluate the reliability of composite laminae. The two types of methods that will be evaluated are fast probability integration (FPI) methods and Monte Carlo methods. In these methods, reliability is formulated as the probability that an explicit function of random variables is less than a given constant. Using failure criteria developed for composite materials, a function of design variables can be generated which defines a 'failure surface' in probability space. A number of methods are available to evaluate the integration over the probability space bounded by this surface; this integration delivers the required reliability. The methods which will be evaluated are: the first order, second moment FPI methods; second order, second moment FPI methods; the simple Monte Carlo; and an advanced Monte Carlo technique which utilizes importance sampling. The methods are compared for accuracy, efficiency, and for the conservativism of the reliability estimation. The methodology involved in determining the sensitivity of the reliability estimate to the design variables (strength distributions) and importance factors is also presented.

Objective Assessment of Joint Stiffness: A Clinically Oriented Hardware and Software Device with an Application to the Shoulder Joint.

PubMed

McQuade, Kevin; Price, Robert; Liu, Nelson; Ciol, Marcia A

2012-08-30

Examination of articular joints is largely based on subjective assessment of the "end-feel" of the joint in response to manually applied forces at different joint orientations. This technical report aims to describe the development of an objective method to examine joints in general, with specific application to the shoulder, and suitable for clinical use. We adapted existing hardware and developed laptop-based software to objectively record the force/displacement behavior of the glenohumeral joint during three common manual joint examination tests with the arm in six positions. An electromagnetic tracking system recorded three-dimensional positions of sensors attached to a clinician examiner and a patient. A hand-held force transducer recorded manually applied translational forces. The force and joint displacement were time-synchronized and the joint stiffness was calculated as a quantitative representation of the joint "end-feel." A methodology and specific system checks were developed to enhance clinical testing reproducibility and precision. The device and testing protocol were tested on 31 subjects (15 with healthy shoulders, and 16 with a variety of shoulder impairments). Results describe the stiffness responses, and demonstrate the feasibility of using the device and methods in clinical settings.

A population-based tissue probability map-driven level set method for fully automated mammographic density estimations.

PubMed

Kim, Youngwoo; Hong, Byung Woo; Kim, Seung Ja; Kim, Jong Hyo

2014-07-01

A major challenge when distinguishing glandular tissues on mammograms, especially for area-based estimations, lies in determining a boundary on a hazy transition zone from adipose to glandular tissues. This stems from the nature of mammography, which is a projection of superimposed tissues consisting of different structures. In this paper, the authors present a novel segmentation scheme which incorporates the learned prior knowledge of experts into a level set framework for fully automated mammographic density estimations. The authors modeled the learned knowledge as a population-based tissue probability map (PTPM) that was designed to capture the classification of experts' visual systems. The PTPM was constructed using an image database of a selected population consisting of 297 cases. Three mammogram experts extracted regions for dense and fatty tissues on digital mammograms, which was an independent subset used to create a tissue probability map for each ROI based on its local statistics. This tissue class probability was taken as a prior in the Bayesian formulation and was incorporated into a level set framework as an additional term to control the evolution and followed the energy surface designed to reflect experts' knowledge as well as the regional statistics inside and outside of the evolving contour. A subset of 100 digital mammograms, which was not used in constructing the PTPM, was used to validate the performance. The energy was minimized when the initial contour reached the boundary of the dense and fatty tissues, as defined by experts. The correlation coefficient between mammographic density measurements made by experts and measurements by the proposed method was 0.93, while that with the conventional level set was 0.47. The proposed method showed a marked improvement over the conventional level set method in terms of accuracy and reliability. This result suggests that the proposed method successfully incorporated the learned knowledge of the experts

Establishment probability in newly founded populations.

PubMed

Gusset, Markus; Müller, Michael S; Grimm, Volker

2012-06-20

Establishment success in newly founded populations relies on reaching the established phase, which is defined by characteristic fluctuations of the population's state variables. Stochastic population models can be used to quantify the establishment probability of newly founded populations; however, so far no simple but robust method for doing so existed. To determine a critical initial number of individuals that need to be released to reach the established phase, we used a novel application of the "Wissel plot", where -ln(1 - P0(t)) is plotted against time t. This plot is based on the equation P(0)t=1-c(1)e(-ω(1t)), which relates the probability of extinction by time t, P(0)(t), to two constants: c(1) describes the probability of a newly founded population to reach the established phase, whereas ω(1) describes the population's probability of extinction per short time interval once established. For illustration, we applied the method to a previously developed stochastic population model of the endangered African wild dog (Lycaon pictus). A newly founded population reaches the established phase if the intercept of the (extrapolated) linear parts of the "Wissel plot" with the y-axis, which is -ln(c(1)), is negative. For wild dogs in our model, this is the case if a critical initial number of four packs, consisting of eight individuals each, are released. The method we present to quantify the establishment probability of newly founded populations is generic and inferences thus are transferable to other systems across the field of conservation biology. In contrast to other methods, our approach disaggregates the components of a population's viability by distinguishing establishment from persistence.

Joint Geophysical Inversion With Multi-Objective Global Optimization Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lelievre, P. G.; Bijani, R.; Farquharson, C. G.

2015-12-01

Pareto multi-objective global optimization (PMOGO) methods generate a suite of solutions that minimize multiple objectives (e.g. data misfits and regularization terms) in a Pareto-optimal sense. Providing a suite of models, as opposed to a single model that minimizes a weighted sum of objectives, allows a more complete assessment of the possibilities and avoids the often difficult choice of how to weight each objective. We are applying PMOGO methods to three classes of inverse problems. The first class are standard mesh-based problems where the physical property values in each cell are treated as continuous variables. The second class of problems are also mesh-based but cells can only take discrete physical property values corresponding to known or assumed rock units. In the third class we consider a fundamentally different type of inversion in which a model comprises wireframe surfaces representing contacts between rock units; the physical properties of each rock unit remain fixed while the inversion controls the position of the contact surfaces via control nodes. This third class of problem is essentially a geometry inversion, which can be used to recover the unknown geometry of a target body or to investigate the viability of a proposed Earth model. Joint inversion is greatly simplified for the latter two problem classes because no additional mathematical coupling measure is required in the objective function. PMOGO methods can solve numerically complicated problems that could not be solved with standard descent-based local minimization methods. This includes the latter two classes of problems mentioned above. There are significant increases in the computational requirements when PMOGO methods are used but these can be ameliorated using parallelization and problem dimension reduction strategies.

Convergence of Transition Probability Matrix in CLVMarkov Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Permana, D.; Pasaribu, U. S.; Indratno, S. W.; Suprayogi, S.

2018-04-01

A transition probability matrix is an arrangement of transition probability from one states to another in a Markov chain model (MCM). One of interesting study on the MCM is its behavior for a long time in the future. The behavior is derived from one property of transition probabilty matrix for n steps. This term is called the convergence of the n-step transition matrix for n move to infinity. Mathematically, the convergence of the transition probability matrix is finding the limit of the transition matrix which is powered by n where n moves to infinity. The convergence form of the transition probability matrix is very interesting as it will bring the matrix to its stationary form. This form is useful for predicting the probability of transitions between states in the future. The method usually used to find the convergence of transition probability matrix is through the process of limiting the distribution. In this paper, the convergence of the transition probability matrix is searched using a simple concept of linear algebra that is by diagonalizing the matrix.This method has a higher level of complexity because it has to perform the process of diagonalization in its matrix. But this way has the advantage of obtaining a common form of power n of the transition probability matrix. This form is useful to see transition matrix before stationary. For example cases are taken from CLV model using MCM called Model of CLV-Markov. There are several models taken by its transition probability matrix to find its convergence form. The result is that the convergence of the matrix of transition probability through diagonalization has similarity with convergence with commonly used distribution of probability limiting method.

An in vitro simulation method for the tribological assessment of complete natural hip joints

PubMed Central

Fisher, John; Williams, Sophie

2017-01-01

The use of hip joint simulators to evaluate the tribological performance of total hip replacements is widely reported in the literature, however, in vitro simulation studies investigating the tribology of the natural hip joint are limited with heterogeneous methodologies reported. An in vitro simulation system for the complete natural hip joint, enabling the acetabulum and femoral head to be positioned with different orientations whilst maintaining the correct joint centre of rotation, was successfully developed for this study. The efficacy of the simulation system was assessed by testing complete, matched natural porcine hip joints and porcine hip hemiarthroplasty joints in a pendulum friction simulator. The results showed evidence of biphasic lubrication, with a non-linear increase in friction being observed in both groups. Lower overall mean friction factor values in the complete natural joint group that increased at a lower rate over time, suggest that the exudation of fluid and transition to solid phase lubrication occurred more slowly in the complete natural hip joint compared to the hip hemiarthroplasty joint. It is envisaged that this methodology will be used to investigate morphological risk factors for developing hip osteoarthritis, as well as the effectiveness of early interventional treatments for degenerative hip disease. PMID:28886084

Fractal Analysis of Rock Joint Profiles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Audy, Ondřej; Ficker, Tomáš

2017-10-01

Surface reliefs of rock joints are analyzed in geotechnics when shear strength of rocky slopes is estimated. The rock joint profiles actually are self-affine fractal curves and computations of their fractal dimensions require special methods. Many papers devoted to the fractal properties of these profiles were published in the past but only a few of those papers employed a convenient computational method that would have guaranteed a sound value of that dimension. As a consequence, anomalously low dimensions were presented. This contribution deals with two computational modifications that lead to sound fractal dimensions of the self-affine rock joint profiles. These are the modified box-counting method and the modified yard-stick method sometimes called the compass method. Both these methods are frequently applied to self-similar fractal curves but the self-affine profile curves due to their self-affine nature require modified computational procedures implemented in computer programs.

Probability density function evolution of power systems subject to stochastic variation of renewable energy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, J. Q.; Cong, Y. C.; Xiao, M. Q.

2018-05-01

As renewable energies are increasingly integrated into power systems, there is increasing interest in stochastic analysis of power systems.Better techniques should be developed to account for the uncertainty caused by penetration of renewables and consequently analyse its impacts on stochastic stability of power systems. In this paper, the Stochastic Differential Equations (SDEs) are used to represent the evolutionary behaviour of the power systems. The stationary Probability Density Function (PDF) solution to SDEs modelling power systems excited by Gaussian white noise is analysed. Subjected to such random excitation, the Joint Probability Density Function (JPDF) solution to the phase angle and angular velocity is governed by the generalized Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov (FPK) equation. To solve this equation, the numerical method is adopted. Special measure is taken such that the generalized FPK equation is satisfied in the average sense of integration with the assumed PDF. Both weak and strong intensities of the stochastic excitations are considered in a single machine infinite bus power system. The numerical analysis has the same result as the one given by the Monte Carlo simulation. Potential studies on stochastic behaviour of multi-machine power systems with random excitations are discussed at the end.

Approximating Integrals Using Probability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Maruszewski, Richard F., Jr.; Caudle, Kyle A.

2005-01-01

As part of a discussion on Monte Carlo methods, which outlines how to use probability expectations to approximate the value of a definite integral. The purpose of this paper is to elaborate on this technique and then to show several examples using visual basic as a programming tool. It is an interesting method because it combines two branches of…

Obtaining Accurate Probabilities Using Classifier Calibration

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pakdaman Naeini, Mahdi

2016-01-01

Learning probabilistic classification and prediction models that generate accurate probabilities is essential in many prediction and decision-making tasks in machine learning and data mining. One way to achieve this goal is to post-process the output of classification models to obtain more accurate probabilities. These post-processing methods are…

Effect of stress concentration on the fatigue strength of A7N01S-T5 welded joints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Mingyue; Gou, Guoqing; Hang, Zongqiu; Chen, Hui

2017-07-01

Stress concentration is a key factor that affects the fatigue strength of welded joints. In this study, the fatigue strengths of butt joints with and without the weld reinforcement were tested to quantify the effect of stress concentration. The fatigue strength of the welded joints was measured with a high-frequency fatigue machine. The P-S-N curves were drawn under different confidence levels and failure probabilities. The results show that butt joints with the weld reinforcement have much lower fatigue strength than joints without the weld reinforcement. Therefore, stress concentration introduced by the weld reinforcement should be controlled.

Acoustic emission analysis: A test method for metal joints bonded by adhesives

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brockmann, W.; Fischer, T.

1978-01-01

Acoustic emission analysis is applied to study adhesive joints which had been subjected to mechanical and climatic stresses, taking into account conditions which make results applicable to adhesive joints used in aerospace technology. Specimens consisting of the alloy AlMgSi0.5 were used together with a phenolic resin adhesive, an epoxy resin modified with a polyamide, and an epoxy resin modified with a nitrile. Results show that the acoustic emission analysis provides valuable information concerning the behavior of adhesive joints under load and climatic stresses.

A method of decision analysis quantifying the effects of age and comorbidities on the probability of deriving significant benefit from medical treatments

PubMed Central

Bean, Nigel G.; Ruberu, Ravi P.

2017-01-01

Background The external validity, or generalizability, of trials and guidelines has been considered poor in the context of multiple morbidity. How multiple morbidity might affect the magnitude of benefit of a given treatment, and thereby external validity, has had little study. Objective To provide a method of decision analysis to quantify the effects of age and comorbidity on the probability of deriving a given magnitude of treatment benefit. Design We developed a method to calculate probabilistically the effect of all of a patient’s comorbidities on their underlying utility, or well-being, at a future time point. From this, we derived a distribution of possible magnitudes of treatment benefit at that future time point. We then expressed this distribution as the probability of deriving at least a given magnitude of treatment benefit. To demonstrate the applicability of this method of decision analysis, we applied it to the treatment of hypercholesterolaemia in a geriatric population of 50 individuals. We highlighted the results of four of these individuals. Results This method of analysis provided individualized quantifications of the effect of age and comorbidity on the probability of treatment benefit. The average probability of deriving a benefit, of at least 50% of the magnitude of benefit available to an individual without comorbidity, was only 0.8%. Conclusion The effects of age and comorbidity on the probability of deriving significant treatment benefits can be quantified for any individual. Even without consideration of other factors affecting external validity, these effects may be sufficient to guide decision-making. PMID:29090189

Regional flood probabilities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Troutman, Brent M.; Karlinger, Michael R.

2003-01-01

The T‐year annual maximum flood at a site is defined to be that streamflow, that has probability 1/T of being exceeded in any given year, and for a group of sites the corresponding regional flood probability (RFP) is the probability that at least one site will experience a T‐year flood in any given year. The RFP depends on the number of sites of interest and on the spatial correlation of flows among the sites. We present a Monte Carlo method for obtaining the RFP and demonstrate that spatial correlation estimates used in this method may be obtained with rank transformed data and therefore that knowledge of the at‐site peak flow distribution is not necessary. We examine the extent to which the estimates depend on specification of a parametric form for the spatial correlation function, which is known to be nonstationary for peak flows. It is shown in a simulation study that use of a stationary correlation function to compute RFPs yields satisfactory estimates for certain nonstationary processes. Application of asymptotic extreme value theory is examined, and a methodology for separating channel network and rainfall effects on RFPs is suggested. A case study is presented using peak flow data from the state of Washington. For 193 sites in the Puget Sound region it is estimated that a 100‐year flood will occur on the average every 4.5 years.

Dorsoradial capsulodesis for trapeziometacarpal joint instability.

PubMed

Rayan, Ghazi; Do, Viet

2013-02-01

We describe an alternative method for treating chronic trapeziometacarpal (TM) joint instability after acute injury or chronic repetitive use of the thumb by performing a dorsoradial capsulodesis procedure. The procedure is done by imbricating the redundant TM joint dorsoradial ligament and capsule after reducing the joint by pronating the thumb. The dorsoradial capsulodesis is a reasonable reconstructive option for chronic TM joint instability and subluxation. Copyright © 2013 American Society for Surgery of the Hand. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Joint Processing of Envelope Alignment and Phase Compensation for Isar Imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Tao; Jin, Guanghu; Dong, Zhen

2018-04-01

Range envelope alignment and phase compensation are spilt into two isolated parts in the classical methods of translational motion compensation in Inverse Synthetic Aperture Radar (ISAR) imaging. In classic method of the rotating object imaging, the two reference points of the envelope alignment and the Phase Difference (PD) estimation are probably not the same point, making it difficult to uncouple the coupling term by conducting the correction of Migration Through Resolution Cell (MTRC). In this paper, an improved approach of joint processing which chooses certain scattering point as the sole reference point is proposed to perform with utilizing the Prominent Point Processing (PPP) method. With this end in view, we firstly get the initial image using classical methods from which a certain scattering point can be chose. The envelope alignment and phase compensation using the selected scattering point as the same reference point are subsequently conducted. The keystone transform is thus smoothly applied to further improve imaging quality. Both simulation experiments and real data processing are provided to demonstrate the performance of the proposed method compared with classical method.

Background for Joint Systems Aspects of AIR 6000

DTIC Science & Technology

2000-04-01

Checkland’s Soft Systems Methodology [7, 8,9]. The analytical techniques that are proposed for joint systems work are based on calculating probability...Supporting Global Interests 21 DSTO-CR-0155 SLMP Structural Life Management Plan SOW Stand-Off Weapon SSM Soft Systems Methodology UAV Uninhabited Aerial... Systems Methodology in Action, John Wiley & Sons, Chichester, 1990. [101 Pearl, Judea, Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems: Networks of Plausible

Computation of the Complex Probability Function

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Trainer, Amelia Jo; Ledwith, Patrick John

The complex probability function is important in many areas of physics and many techniques have been developed in an attempt to compute it for some z quickly and e ciently. Most prominent are the methods that use Gauss-Hermite quadrature, which uses the roots of the n th degree Hermite polynomial and corresponding weights to approximate the complex probability function. This document serves as an overview and discussion of the use, shortcomings, and potential improvements on the Gauss-Hermite quadrature for the complex probability function.

A Comparison of Methods for Assessing Space Suit Joint Ranges of Motion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aitchison, Lindsay T.

2012-01-01

Through the Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) Program, NASA is attempting to use the vast collection of space suit mobility data from 50 years worth of space suit testing to build predictive analysis tools to aid in early architecture decisions for future missions and exploration programs. However, the design engineers must first understand if and how data generated by different methodologies can be compared directly and used in an essentially interchangeable manner. To address this question, the isolated joint range of motion data from two different test series were compared. Both data sets were generated from participants wearing the Mark III Space Suit Technology Demonstrator (MK-III), Waist Entry I-suit (WEI), and minimal clothing. Additionally the two tests shared a common test subject that allowed for within subject comparisons of the methods that greatly reduced the number of variables in play. The tests varied in their methodologies: the Space Suit Comparative Technologies Evaluation used 2-D photogrammetry to analyze isolated ranges of motion while the Constellation space suit benchmarking and requirements development used 3-D motion capture to evaluate both isolated and functional joint ranges of motion. The isolated data from both test series were compared graphically, as percent differences, and by simple statistical analysis. The results indicated that while the methods generate results that are statistically the same (significance level p= 0.01), the differences are significant enough in the practical sense to make direct comparisons ill advised. The concluding recommendations propose direction for how to bridge the data gaps and address future mobility data collection to allow for backward compatibility.

Posterior probability of linkage and maximal lod score.

PubMed

Génin, E; Martinez, M; Clerget-Darpoux, F

1995-01-01

To detect linkage between a trait and a marker, Morton (1955) proposed to calculate the lod score z(theta 1) at a given value theta 1 of the recombination fraction. If z(theta 1) reaches +3 then linkage is concluded. However, in practice, lod scores are calculated for different values of the recombination fraction between 0 and 0.5 and the test is based on the maximum value of the lod score Zmax. The impact of this deviation of the test on the probability that in fact linkage does not exist, when linkage was concluded, is documented here. This posterior probability of no linkage can be derived by using Bayes' theorem. It is less than 5% when the lod score at a predetermined theta 1 is used for the test. But, for a Zmax of +3, we showed that it can reach 16.4%. Thus, considering a composite alternative hypothesis instead of a single one decreases the reliability of the test. The reliability decreases rapidly when Zmax is less than +3. Given a Zmax of +2.5, there is a 33% chance that linkage does not exist. Moreover, the posterior probability depends not only on the value of Zmax but also jointly on the family structures and on the genetic model. For a given Zmax, the chance that linkage exists may then vary.

Nikolaus Rüdinger (1832-1896), His Description of Joint Innervation in 1857, and the History of Surgical Joint Denervation.

PubMed

Gohritz, Andreas; Kaiser, Erich; Guggenheim, Merlin; Dellon, Arnold Lee

2018-01-01

 Selective joint denervation has become a reliable palliative treatment, especially for painful joints in the upper and lower extremity.  This article highlights the life and work of Nikolaus Rüdinger (1832-1896) who first described joint innervation which became the basis of later techniques of surgical joint denervation. The historical evolution of this method is outlined.  Rüdinger made a unique career from apprentice barber to military surgeon and anatomy professor in Munich, Germany. His first description of articular innervation of temporomandibular, shoulder, elbow, wrist, finger, sacroiliac, hip, knee, ankle, foot, and toe joints in 1857 stimulated the subsequent history of surgical joint denervation. Comparing his investigations with modern joint denervation methods, developed by pioneers like Albrecht Wilhelm or A. Lee Dellon, shows his great exactitude and anatomical correspondence despite different current terminology. Clinical series of modern surgical joint denervations reveal success rates of up to 80% with reliable long-term results.  The history of joint denervation with Rüdinger as its important protagonist offers inspiring insights into the evolution of surgical techniques and exemplifies the value of descriptive functional anatomy, even if surgical application may not have been realized until a century later. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

Rapid, single-step most-probable-number method for enumerating fecal coliforms in effluents from sewage treatment plants

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Munoz, E. F.; Silverman, M. P.

1979-01-01

A single-step most-probable-number method for determining the number of fecal coliform bacteria present in sewage treatment plant effluents is discussed. A single growth medium based on that of Reasoner et al. (1976) and consisting of 5.0 gr. proteose peptone, 3.0 gr. yeast extract, 10.0 gr. lactose, 7.5 gr. NaCl, 0.2 gr. sodium lauryl sulfate, and 0.1 gr. sodium desoxycholate per liter is used. The pH is adjusted to 6.5, and samples are incubated at 44.5 deg C. Bacterial growth is detected either by measuring the increase with time in the electrical impedance ratio between the innoculated sample vial and an uninnoculated reference vial or by visual examination for turbidity. Results obtained by the single-step method for chlorinated and unchlorinated effluent samples are in excellent agreement with those obtained by the standard method. It is suggested that in automated treatment plants impedance ratio data could be automatically matched by computer programs with the appropriate dilution factors and most probable number tables already in the computer memory, with the corresponding result displayed as fecal coliforms per 100 ml of effluent.

A painless and constraint-free method to estimate viscoelastic passive dynamics of limbs' joints to support diagnosis of neuromuscular diseases.

PubMed

Venture, Gentiane; Nakamura, Yoshihiko; Yamane, Katsu; Hirashima, Masaya

2007-01-01

Though seldom identified, the human joints dynamics is important in the fields of medical robotics and medical research. We present a general solution to estimate in-vivo and simultaneously the passive dynamics of the human limbs' joints. It is based on the use of the multi-body description of the human body and its kinematics and dynamics computations. The linear passive joint dynamics of the shoulders and the elbows: stiffness, viscosity and friction, is estimated simultaneously using the linear least squares method. Acquisition of movements is achieved with an optical motion capture studio on one examinee during the clinical diagnosis of neuromuscular diseases. Experimental results are given and discussed.

A composition joint PDF method for the modeling of spray flames

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Raju, M. S.

1995-01-01

This viewgraph presentation discusses an extension of the probability density function (PDF) method to the modeling of spray flames to evaluate the limitations and capabilities of this method in the modeling of gas-turbine combustor flows. The comparisons show that the general features of the flowfield are correctly predicted by the present solution procedure. The present solution appears to provide a better representation of the temperature field, particularly, in the reverse-velocity zone. The overpredictions in the centerline velocity could be attributed to the following reasons: (1) the use of k-epsilon turbulence model is known to be less precise in highly swirling flows and (2) the swirl number used here is reported to be estimated rather than measured.

High throughput nonparametric probability density estimation.

PubMed

Farmer, Jenny; Jacobs, Donald

2018-01-01

In high throughput applications, such as those found in bioinformatics and finance, it is important to determine accurate probability distribution functions despite only minimal information about data characteristics, and without using human subjectivity. Such an automated process for univariate data is implemented to achieve this goal by merging the maximum entropy method with single order statistics and maximum likelihood. The only required properties of the random variables are that they are continuous and that they are, or can be approximated as, independent and identically distributed. A quasi-log-likelihood function based on single order statistics for sampled uniform random data is used to empirically construct a sample size invariant universal scoring function. Then a probability density estimate is determined by iteratively improving trial cumulative distribution functions, where better estimates are quantified by the scoring function that identifies atypical fluctuations. This criterion resists under and over fitting data as an alternative to employing the Bayesian or Akaike information criterion. Multiple estimates for the probability density reflect uncertainties due to statistical fluctuations in random samples. Scaled quantile residual plots are also introduced as an effective diagnostic to visualize the quality of the estimated probability densities. Benchmark tests show that estimates for the probability density function (PDF) converge to the true PDF as sample size increases on particularly difficult test probability densities that include cases with discontinuities, multi-resolution scales, heavy tails, and singularities. These results indicate the method has general applicability for high throughput statistical inference.

High throughput nonparametric probability density estimation

PubMed Central

Farmer, Jenny

2018-01-01

In high throughput applications, such as those found in bioinformatics and finance, it is important to determine accurate probability distribution functions despite only minimal information about data characteristics, and without using human subjectivity. Such an automated process for univariate data is implemented to achieve this goal by merging the maximum entropy method with single order statistics and maximum likelihood. The only required properties of the random variables are that they are continuous and that they are, or can be approximated as, independent and identically distributed. A quasi-log-likelihood function based on single order statistics for sampled uniform random data is used to empirically construct a sample size invariant universal scoring function. Then a probability density estimate is determined by iteratively improving trial cumulative distribution functions, where better estimates are quantified by the scoring function that identifies atypical fluctuations. This criterion resists under and over fitting data as an alternative to employing the Bayesian or Akaike information criterion. Multiple estimates for the probability density reflect uncertainties due to statistical fluctuations in random samples. Scaled quantile residual plots are also introduced as an effective diagnostic to visualize the quality of the estimated probability densities. Benchmark tests show that estimates for the probability density function (PDF) converge to the true PDF as sample size increases on particularly difficult test probability densities that include cases with discontinuities, multi-resolution scales, heavy tails, and singularities. These results indicate the method has general applicability for high throughput statistical inference. PMID:29750803

A model to explain joint patterns found in ignimbrite deposits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tibaldi, A.; Bonali, F. L.

2018-03-01

The study of fracture systems is of paramount importance for economic applications, such as CO2 storage in rock successions, geothermal and hydrocarbon exploration and exploitation, and also for a better knowledge of seismogenic fault formation. Understanding the origin of joints can be useful for tectonic studies and for a geotechnical characterisation of rock masses. Here, we illustrate a joint pattern discovered in ignimbrite deposits of South America, which can be confused with conjugate tectonic joint sets but which have another origin. The pattern is probably common, but recognisable only in plan view and before tectonic deformation obscures and overprints it. Key sites have been mostly studied by field surveys in Bolivia and Chile. The pattern is represented by hundreds-of-meters up to kilometre-long swarms of master joints, which show circular to semi-circular geometries and intersections that have "X" and "Y" patterns. Inside each swarm, joints are systematic, rectilinear or curvilinear in plan view, and as much as 900 m long. In section view, they are from sub-vertical to vertical and do not affect the underlying deposits. Joints with different orientation mostly interrupt each other, suggesting they have the same age. This joint architecture is here interpreted as resulting from differential contraction after emplacement of the ignimbrite deposit above a complex topography. The set of the joint pattern that has suitable orientation with respect to tectonic stresses may act to nucleate faults.

Candida Prosthetic Joint Infection. A Review of Treatment Methods.

PubMed

Cobo, Fernando; Rodríguez-Granger, Javier; Sampedro, Antonio; Aliaga-Martínez, Luis; Navarro-Marí, José María

2017-01-01

Fungal microorganisms are still a rare cause of bone and joint infections. We report a new case of knee prosthetic joint infection due to Candida albicans in a patient with a previous two-stage right knee arthroplasty for septic arthritis due to S. epidermidis occurred several months ago. Moreover, the treatment in 76 cases of Candida prosthetic joint infection has been discussed. Forty patients were female and mean age at diagnosis was 65.7 (± SD 18) yrs. No risk factors for candidal infection were found in 25 patients. Infection site was the knee in 38 patients and hip in 36; pain was present in 44 patients and swelling in 24. The most frequent species was C. albicans , followed by C. parapsilosis . Eleven patients were only treated with antifungal drugs being the outcome favourable in all of them. Two-stage exchange arthroplasty was performed in 30 patients, and resection arthroplasty in other 30; in three patients one-stage exchange arthroplasty was done. A favourable outcome was found in 58 patients after antifungal plus surgical treatment, in 11 after antifungal treatment alone and in one after surgery alone. The type of treatment is still not clearly defined and an algorithm for treatment in fungal PJI should be established, but various types of surgical procedures may be applied.

3-D Analysis of Flanged Joints Through Various Preload Methods Using ANSYS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murugan, Jeyaraj Paul; Kurian, Thomas; Jayaprakash, Janardhan; Sreedharapanickar, Somanath

2015-10-01

Flanged joints are being employed in aerospace solid rocket motor hardware for the integration of various systems or subsystems. Hence, the design of flanged joints is very important in ensuring the integrity of motor while functioning. As these joints are subjected to higher loads due to internal pressure acting inside the motor chamber, an appropriate preload is required to be applied in this joint before subjecting it to the external load. Preload, also known as clamp load, is applied on the fastener and helps to hold the mating flanges together. Generally preload is simulated as a thermal load and the exact preload is obtained through number of iterations. Infact, more iterations are required when considering the material nonlinearity of the bolt. This way of simulation will take more computational time for generating the required preload. Now a days most commercial software packages use pretension elements for simulating the preload. This element does not require iterations for inducing the preload and it can be solved with single iteration. This approach takes less computational time and thus one can study the characteristics of the joint easily by varying the preload. When the structure contains more number of joints with different sizes of fasteners, pretension elements can be used compared to thermal load approach for simulating each size of fastener. This paper covers the details of analyses carried out simulating the preload through various options viz., preload through thermal, initial state command and pretension element etc. using ANSYS finite element package.

Impact of statistical learning methods on the predictive power of multivariate normal tissue complication probability models.

PubMed

Xu, Cheng-Jian; van der Schaaf, Arjen; Schilstra, Cornelis; Langendijk, Johannes A; van't Veld, Aart A

2012-03-15

To study the impact of different statistical learning methods on the prediction performance of multivariate normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models. In this study, three learning methods, stepwise selection, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), and Bayesian model averaging (BMA), were used to build NTCP models of xerostomia following radiotherapy treatment for head and neck cancer. Performance of each learning method was evaluated by a repeated cross-validation scheme in order to obtain a fair comparison among methods. It was found that the LASSO and BMA methods produced models with significantly better predictive power than that of the stepwise selection method. Furthermore, the LASSO method yields an easily interpretable model as the stepwise method does, in contrast to the less intuitive BMA method. The commonly used stepwise selection method, which is simple to execute, may be insufficient for NTCP modeling. The LASSO method is recommended. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Joint Segmentation and Deformable Registration of Brain Scans Guided by a Tumor Growth Model

PubMed Central

Gooya, Ali; Pohl, Kilian M.; Bilello, Michel; Biros, George; Davatzikos, Christos

2011-01-01

This paper presents an approach for joint segmentation and deformable registration of brain scans of glioma patients to a normal atlas. The proposed method is based on the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm that incorporates a glioma growth model for atlas seeding, a process which modifies the normal atlas into one with a tumor and edema. The modified atlas is registered into the patient space and utilized for the posterior probability estimation of various tissue labels. EM iteratively refines the estimates of the registration parameters, the posterior probabilities of tissue labels and the tumor growth model parameters. We have applied this approach to 10 glioma scans acquired with four Magnetic Resonance (MR) modalities (T1, T1-CE, T2 and FLAIR ) and validated the result by comparing them to manual segmentations by clinical experts. The resulting segmentations look promising and quantitatively match well with the expert provided ground truth. PMID:21995070

Joint segmentation and deformable registration of brain scans guided by a tumor growth model.

PubMed

Gooya, Ali; Pohl, Kilian M; Bilello, Michel; Biros, George; Davatzikos, Christos

2011-01-01

This paper presents an approach for joint segmentation and deformable registration of brain scans of glioma patients to a normal atlas. The proposed method is based on the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm that incorporates a glioma growth model for atlas seeding, a process which modifies the normal atlas into one with a tumor and edema. The modified atlas is registered into the patient space and utilized for the posterior probability estimation of various tissue labels. EM iteratively refines the estimates of the registration parameters, the posterior probabilities of tissue labels and the tumor growth model parameters. We have applied this approach to 10 glioma scans acquired with four Magnetic Resonance (MR) modalities (T1, T1-CE, T2 and FLAIR) and validated the result by comparing them to manual segmentations by clinical experts. The resulting segmentations look promising and quantitatively match well with the expert provided ground truth.

Application of numerical method in calculating the internal rate of return of joint venture investment using diminishing musyarakah model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruslan, Siti Zaharah Mohd; Jaffar, Maheran Mohd

2017-05-01

Islamic banking in Malaysia offers variety of products based on Islamic principles. One of the concepts is a diminishing musyarakah. The concept of diminishing musyarakah helps Muslims to avoid transaction which are based on riba. The diminishing musyarakah can be defined as an agreement between capital provider and entrepreneurs that enable entrepreneurs to buy equity in instalments where profits and losses are shared based on agreed ratio. The objective of this paper is to determine the internal rate of return (IRR) for a diminishing musyarakah model by applying a numerical method. There are several numerical methods in calculating the IRR such as by using an interpolation method and a trial and error method by using Microsoft Office Excel. In this paper we use a bisection method and secant method as an alternative way in calculating the IRR. It was found that the diminishing musyarakah model can be adapted in managing the performance of joint venture investments. Therefore, this paper will encourage more companies to use the concept of joint venture in managing their investments performance.

Minimal entropy probability paths between genome families.

PubMed

Ahlbrandt, Calvin; Benson, Gary; Casey, William

2004-05-01

We develop a metric for probability distributions with applications to biological sequence analysis. Our distance metric is obtained by minimizing a functional defined on the class of paths over probability measures on N categories. The underlying mathematical theory is connected to a constrained problem in the calculus of variations. The solution presented is a numerical solution, which approximates the true solution in a set of cases called rich paths where none of the components of the path is zero. The functional to be minimized is motivated by entropy considerations, reflecting the idea that nature might efficiently carry out mutations of genome sequences in such a way that the increase in entropy involved in transformation is as small as possible. We characterize sequences by frequency profiles or probability vectors, in the case of DNA where N is 4 and the components of the probability vector are the frequency of occurrence of each of the bases A, C, G and T. Given two probability vectors a and b, we define a distance function based as the infimum of path integrals of the entropy function H( p) over all admissible paths p(t), 0 < or = t< or =1, with p(t) a probability vector such that p(0)=a and p(1)=b. If the probability paths p(t) are parameterized as y(s) in terms of arc length s and the optimal path is smooth with arc length L, then smooth and "rich" optimal probability paths may be numerically estimated by a hybrid method of iterating Newton's method on solutions of a two point boundary value problem, with unknown distance L between the abscissas, for the Euler-Lagrange equations resulting from a multiplier rule for the constrained optimization problem together with linear regression to improve the arc length estimate L. Matlab code for these numerical methods is provided which works only for "rich" optimal probability vectors. These methods motivate a definition of an elementary distance function which is easier and faster to calculate, works on non

Sequential Probability Ratio Testing with Power Projective Base Method Improves Decision-Making for BCI

PubMed Central

Liu, Rong

2017-01-01

Obtaining a fast and reliable decision is an important issue in brain-computer interfaces (BCI), particularly in practical real-time applications such as wheelchair or neuroprosthetic control. In this study, the EEG signals were firstly analyzed with a power projective base method. Then we were applied a decision-making model, the sequential probability ratio testing (SPRT), for single-trial classification of motor imagery movement events. The unique strength of this proposed classification method lies in its accumulative process, which increases the discriminative power as more and more evidence is observed over time. The properties of the method were illustrated on thirteen subjects' recordings from three datasets. Results showed that our proposed power projective method outperformed two benchmark methods for every subject. Moreover, with sequential classifier, the accuracies across subjects were significantly higher than that with nonsequential ones. The average maximum accuracy of the SPRT method was 84.1%, as compared with 82.3% accuracy for the sequential Bayesian (SB) method. The proposed SPRT method provides an explicit relationship between stopping time, thresholds, and error, which is important for balancing the time-accuracy trade-off. These results suggest SPRT would be useful in speeding up decision-making while trading off errors in BCI. PMID:29348781

A backward Monte Carlo method for efficient computation of runaway probabilities in runaway electron simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Guannan; Del-Castillo-Negrete, Diego

2017-10-01

Kinetic descriptions of RE are usually based on the bounced-averaged Fokker-Planck model that determines the PDFs of RE. Despite of the simplification involved, the Fokker-Planck equation can rarely be solved analytically and direct numerical approaches (e.g., continuum and particle-based Monte Carlo (MC)) can be time consuming specially in the computation of asymptotic-type observable including the runaway probability, the slowing-down and runaway mean times, and the energy limit probability. Here we present a novel backward MC approach to these problems based on backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs). The BSDE model can simultaneously describe the PDF of RE and the runaway probabilities by means of the well-known Feynman-Kac theory. The key ingredient of the backward MC algorithm is to place all the particles in a runaway state and simulate them backward from the terminal time to the initial time. As such, our approach can provide much faster convergence than the brute-force MC methods, which can significantly reduce the number of particles required to achieve a prescribed accuracy. Moreover, our algorithm can be parallelized as easy as the direct MC code, which paves the way for conducting large-scale RE simulation. This work is supported by DOE FES and ASCR under the Contract Numbers ERKJ320 and ERAT377.

Evaluation of transverse joint forming methods for PCC pavement.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2006-01-01

The members of the Iowa Concrete Paving Association, the National Concrete Pavement Technology Center Research Committee, and : the Iowa Highway Research Board commissioned a study to examine alternative ways of developing transverse joints in portla...

Inverse probability weighting in STI/HIV prevention research: methods for evaluating social and community interventions

PubMed Central

Lippman, Sheri A.; Shade, Starley B.; Hubbard, Alan E.

2011-01-01

Background Intervention effects estimated from non-randomized intervention studies are plagued by biases, yet social or structural intervention studies are rarely randomized. There are underutilized statistical methods available to mitigate biases due to self-selection, missing data, and confounding in longitudinal, observational data permitting estimation of causal effects. We demonstrate the use of Inverse Probability Weighting (IPW) to evaluate the effect of participating in a combined clinical and social STI/HIV prevention intervention on reduction of incident chlamydia and gonorrhea infections among sex workers in Brazil. Methods We demonstrate the step-by-step use of IPW, including presentation of the theoretical background, data set up, model selection for weighting, application of weights, estimation of effects using varied modeling procedures, and discussion of assumptions for use of IPW. Results 420 sex workers contributed data on 840 incident chlamydia and gonorrhea infections. Participators were compared to non-participators following application of inverse probability weights to correct for differences in covariate patterns between exposed and unexposed participants and between those who remained in the intervention and those who were lost-to-follow-up. Estimators using four model selection procedures provided estimates of intervention effect between odds ratio (OR) .43 (95% CI:.22-.85) and .53 (95% CI:.26-1.1). Conclusions After correcting for selection bias, loss-to-follow-up, and confounding, our analysis suggests a protective effect of participating in the Encontros intervention. Evaluations of behavioral, social, and multi-level interventions to prevent STI can benefit by introduction of weighting methods such as IPW. PMID:20375927

Determination of representative dimension parameter values of Korean knee joints for knee joint implant design.

PubMed

Kwak, Dai Soon; Tao, Quang Bang; Todo, Mitsugu; Jeon, Insu

2012-05-01

Knee joint implants developed by western companies have been imported to Korea and used for Korean patients. However, many clinical problems occur in knee joints of Korean patients after total knee joint replacement owing to the geometric mismatch between the western implants and Korean knee joint structures. To solve these problems, a method to determine the representative dimension parameter values of Korean knee joints is introduced to aid in the design of knee joint implants appropriate for Korean patients. Measurements of the dimension parameters of 88 male Korean knee joint subjects were carried out. The distribution of the subjects versus each measured parameter value was investigated. The measured dimension parameter values of each parameter were grouped by suitable intervals called the "size group," and average values of the size groups were calculated. The knee joint subjects were grouped as the "patient group" based on "size group numbers" of each parameter. From the iterative calculations to decrease the errors between the average dimension parameter values of each "patient group" and the dimension parameter values of the subjects, the average dimension parameter values that give less than the error criterion were determined to be the representative dimension parameter values for designing knee joint implants for Korean patients.

Probability workshop to be better in probability topic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asmat, Aszila; Ujang, Suriyati; Wahid, Sharifah Norhuda Syed

2015-02-01

The purpose of the present study was to examine whether statistics anxiety and attitudes towards probability topic among students in higher education level have an effect on their performance. 62 fourth semester science students were given statistics anxiety questionnaires about their perception towards probability topic. Result indicated that students' performance in probability topic is not related to anxiety level, which means that the higher level in statistics anxiety will not cause lower score in probability topic performance. The study also revealed that motivated students gained from probability workshop ensure that their performance in probability topic shows a positive improvement compared before the workshop. In addition there exists a significance difference in students' performance between genders with better achievement among female students compared to male students. Thus, more initiatives in learning programs with different teaching approaches is needed to provide useful information in improving student learning outcome in higher learning institution.

Lithostratigraphic interpretation from joint analysis of seismic tomography and magnetotelluric resistivity models using self-organizing map techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bauer, K.; Muñoz, G.; Moeck, I.

2012-12-01

The combined interpretation of different models as derived from seismic tomography and magnetotelluric (MT) inversion represents a more efficient approach to determine the lithology of the subsurface compared with the separate treatment of each discipline. Such models can be developed independently or by application of joint inversion strategies. After the step of model generation using different geophysical methodologies, a joint interpretation work flow includes the following steps: (1) adjustment of a joint earth model based on the adapted, identical model geometry for the different methods, (2) classification of the model components (e.g. model blocks described by a set of geophysical parameters), and (3) re-mapping of the classified rock types to visualise their distribution within the earth model, and petrophysical characterization and interpretation. One possible approach for the classification of multi-parameter models is based on statistical pattern recognition, where different models are combined and translated into probability density functions. Classes of rock types are identified in these methods as isolated clusters with high probability density function values. Such techniques are well-established for the analysis of two-parameter models. Alternatively we apply self-organizing map (SOM) techniques, which have no limitations in the number of parameters to be analysed in the joint interpretation. Our SOM work flow includes (1) generation of a joint earth model described by so-called data vectors, (2) unsupervised learning or training, (3) analysis of the feature map by adopting image processing techniques, and (4) application of the knowledge to derive a lithological model which is based on the different geophysical parameters. We show the usage of the SOM work flow for a synthetic and a real data case study. Both tests rely on three geophysical properties: P velocity and vertical velocity gradient from seismic tomography, and electrical resistivity

Maximum parsimony, substitution model, and probability phylogenetic trees.

PubMed

Weng, J F; Thomas, D A; Mareels, I

2011-01-01

The problem of inferring phylogenies (phylogenetic trees) is one of the main problems in computational biology. There are three main methods for inferring phylogenies-Maximum Parsimony (MP), Distance Matrix (DM) and Maximum Likelihood (ML), of which the MP method is the most well-studied and popular method. In the MP method the optimization criterion is the number of substitutions of the nucleotides computed by the differences in the investigated nucleotide sequences. However, the MP method is often criticized as it only counts the substitutions observable at the current time and all the unobservable substitutions that really occur in the evolutionary history are omitted. In order to take into account the unobservable substitutions, some substitution models have been established and they are now widely used in the DM and ML methods but these substitution models cannot be used within the classical MP method. Recently the authors proposed a probability representation model for phylogenetic trees and the reconstructed trees in this model are called probability phylogenetic trees. One of the advantages of the probability representation model is that it can include a substitution model to infer phylogenetic trees based on the MP principle. In this paper we explain how to use a substitution model in the reconstruction of probability phylogenetic trees and show the advantage of this approach with examples.

Optimal Joint Remote State Preparation of Arbitrary Equatorial Multi-qudit States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, Tao; Jiang, Min

2017-03-01

As an important communication technology, quantum information transmission plays an important role in the future network communication. It involves two kinds of transmission ways: quantum teleportation and remote state preparation. In this paper, we put forward a new scheme for optimal joint remote state preparation (JRSP) of an arbitrary equatorial two-qudit state with hybrid dimensions. Moreover, the receiver can reconstruct the target state with 100 % success probability in a deterministic manner via two spatially separated senders. Based on it, we can extend it to joint remote preparation of arbitrary equatorial multi-qudit states with hybrid dimensions using the same strategy.

SU-F-T-450: The Investigation of Radiotherapy Quality Assurance and Automatic Treatment Planning Based On the Kernel Density Estimation Method

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fan, J; Fan, J; Hu, W

Purpose: To develop a fast automatic algorithm based on the two dimensional kernel density estimation (2D KDE) to predict the dose-volume histogram (DVH) which can be employed for the investigation of radiotherapy quality assurance and automatic treatment planning. Methods: We propose a machine learning method that uses previous treatment plans to predict the DVH. The key to the approach is the framing of DVH in a probabilistic setting. The training consists of estimating, from the patients in the training set, the joint probability distribution of the dose and the predictive features. The joint distribution provides an estimation of the conditionalmore » probability of the dose given the values of the predictive features. For the new patient, the prediction consists of estimating the distribution of the predictive features and marginalizing the conditional probability from the training over this. Integrating the resulting probability distribution for the dose yields an estimation of the DVH. The 2D KDE is implemented to predict the joint probability distribution of the training set and the distribution of the predictive features for the new patient. Two variables, including the signed minimal distance from each OAR (organs at risk) voxel to the target boundary and its opening angle with respect to the origin of voxel coordinate, are considered as the predictive features to represent the OAR-target spatial relationship. The feasibility of our method has been demonstrated with the rectum, breast and head-and-neck cancer cases by comparing the predicted DVHs with the planned ones. Results: The consistent result has been found between these two DVHs for each cancer and the average of relative point-wise differences is about 5% within the clinical acceptable extent. Conclusion: According to the result of this study, our method can be used to predict the clinical acceptable DVH and has ability to evaluate the quality and consistency of the treatment planning.« less

[Injuries of the acromioclavicular joint].

PubMed

Meeder, P J; Dannöhl, C

1988-07-01

The injuries of the acromio-clavicular joint require a differentiated diagnosis and treatment. The classification of the acromio-clavicular dislocations from grade I to grade III according to Tossy is proved. The diagnosis of a complete acromio-clavicular dislocation (Tossy III) is an indication for a surgical repair. Many and different methods are reported in the literature. 178 patients with a fresh acromio-clavicular dislocation (Typ Tossy II and III) were treated at the BG-Unfallklinik Tübingen from 1970 to 1987 by suturing the ligaments, inserting pins across the joint and tension wire bending. In old cases with Tossy III dislocation of the acromio-clavicular joint an oblique osteotomy combined with the reduction of the clavicle is recommended as a method of choice. The results of these procedures and there possible intra- and postoperative complications are reported. The incision along the clavicle quite often gives scar problems. Therefore the advantages of an arched incision across the acromio-clavicular joint is pointed out. Because of there biomechanical relationship fractures in the lateral third of the clavicle are similar to dislocations of the acromio-clavicular joint. The classification of these fractures according to Jäger, Buschle and Breitner allows a differentiated management of these lesions.

Dynamic Analyses Including Joints Of Truss Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Belvin, W. Keith

1991-01-01

Method for mathematically modeling joints to assess influences of joints on dynamic response of truss structures developed in study. Only structures with low-frequency oscillations considered; only Coulomb friction and viscous damping included in analysis. Focus of effort to obtain finite-element mathematical models of joints exhibiting load-vs.-deflection behavior similar to measured load-vs.-deflection behavior of real joints. Experiments performed to determine stiffness and damping nonlinearities typical of joint hardware. Algorithm for computing coefficients of analytical joint models based on test data developed to enable study of linear and nonlinear effects of joints on global structural response. Besides intended application to large space structures, applications in nonaerospace community include ground-based antennas and earthquake-resistant steel-framed buildings.

Hydrogeologic unit flow characterization using transition probability geostatistics.

PubMed

Jones, Norman L; Walker, Justin R; Carle, Steven F

2005-01-01

This paper describes a technique for applying the transition probability geostatistics method for stochastic simulation to a MODFLOW model. Transition probability geostatistics has some advantages over traditional indicator kriging methods including a simpler and more intuitive framework for interpreting geologic relationships and the ability to simulate juxtapositional tendencies such as fining upward sequences. The indicator arrays generated by the transition probability simulation are converted to layer elevation and thickness arrays for use with the new Hydrogeologic Unit Flow package in MODFLOW 2000. This makes it possible to preserve complex heterogeneity while using reasonably sized grids and/or grids with nonuniform cell thicknesses.

Multiclass Posterior Probability Twin SVM for Motor Imagery EEG Classification.

PubMed

She, Qingshan; Ma, Yuliang; Meng, Ming; Luo, Zhizeng

2015-01-01

Motor imagery electroencephalography is widely used in the brain-computer interface systems. Due to inherent characteristics of electroencephalography signals, accurate and real-time multiclass classification is always challenging. In order to solve this problem, a multiclass posterior probability solution for twin SVM is proposed by the ranking continuous output and pairwise coupling in this paper. First, two-class posterior probability model is constructed to approximate the posterior probability by the ranking continuous output techniques and Platt's estimating method. Secondly, a solution of multiclass probabilistic outputs for twin SVM is provided by combining every pair of class probabilities according to the method of pairwise coupling. Finally, the proposed method is compared with multiclass SVM and twin SVM via voting, and multiclass posterior probability SVM using different coupling approaches. The efficacy on the classification accuracy and time complexity of the proposed method has been demonstrated by both the UCI benchmark datasets and real world EEG data from BCI Competition IV Dataset 2a, respectively.

Normal probability plots with confidence.

PubMed

Chantarangsi, Wanpen; Liu, Wei; Bretz, Frank; Kiatsupaibul, Seksan; Hayter, Anthony J; Wan, Fang

2015-01-01

Normal probability plots are widely used as a statistical tool for assessing whether an observed simple random sample is drawn from a normally distributed population. The users, however, have to judge subjectively, if no objective rule is provided, whether the plotted points fall close to a straight line. In this paper, we focus on how a normal probability plot can be augmented by intervals for all the points so that, if the population distribution is normal, then all the points should fall into the corresponding intervals simultaneously with probability 1-α. These simultaneous 1-α probability intervals provide therefore an objective mean to judge whether the plotted points fall close to the straight line: the plotted points fall close to the straight line if and only if all the points fall into the corresponding intervals. The powers of several normal probability plot based (graphical) tests and the most popular nongraphical Anderson-Darling and Shapiro-Wilk tests are compared by simulation. Based on this comparison, recommendations are given in Section 3 on which graphical tests should be used in what circumstances. An example is provided to illustrate the methods. © 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

A novel method for defining the Greyhound talocrural joint axis of rotation for hinged transarticular external skeletal fixation.

PubMed

Colborne, G R; Hadley, N R; Wallace, A M

2013-01-01

In order to apply hinged transarticular external skeletal fixation for stabilization of the injured canine tarsal joint, knowledge of the three-dimensional (3D) location and orientation of the transverse axis is necessary. This method of immobilization may be used as a primary or adjunctive method of stabilisation for a large number of traumatic conditions. Using pin-mounted markers in the cadaveric Greyhound crus and talus, a closed-form solution of absolute orientation was used to identify, on radiographs, the lateral and medial locations of the transverse axis by tracking the 3D excursions of the markers during flexion and extension. A line was drawn across the dorsal aspect of the calcaneus from the most dorsal point on the distal articular surface(proximal intertarsal joint: PIJ) to the most dorsal point on its proximal articulation with the body of the talus, and the location of the centre of rotation was expressed in terms of the length of that line. In seven Greyhound tarsal joints, the medial end of the axis was located 73 ± 10% proximal to the PIJ and 11 ± 7% dorsal to the line. The lateral end was 73 ± 9% proximal tothe PIJ and -2 ± 3% plantar to the line.

Joint symbolic dynamic analysis of cardiorespiratory interactions in patients on weaning trials.

PubMed

Caminal, P; Giraldo, B; Zabaleta, H; Vallverdu, M; Benito, S; Ballesteros, D; Lopez-Rodriguez, L; Esteban, A; Baumert, M; Voss, A

2005-01-01

Assessing autonomic control provides information about patho-physiological imbalances. Measures of variability of the cardiac interbeat duration RR(n) and the variability of the breath duration TTot(n) are sensitive to those changes. The interactions between RR(n) and TTot(n) are complex and strongly non-linear. A study of joint symbolic dynamics is presented as a new short-term non-linear analysis method to investigate these interactions in patients on weaning trials. 78 patients from mechanical ventilation are studied: Group A (patients that failed to maintain spontaneous breathing and were reconnected) and Group B (patients with successful trials). Using the concept of joint symbolic dynamics, cardiac and respiratory changes were transformed into a word series, and the probability of occurrence of each word type was calculated and compared between both groups. Significant differences were found in 13 words, and the most significant pn(Wc010, r010): 0.0041 ± 0.0036 (group A) against 0.0012 ± 0.0024 (group B), p-value = 0.00001. The number of seldom occurring word types (forbidden words) also presents significant differences fwcr: 6.9 ± 6.6 against 13.5 ± 5.3, p-value = 0.00004. Joint symbolic dynamics provides an efficient non-linear representation of cardiorespiratory interactions that offers simple physiological interpretations.

[Conditional probability analysis between tinnitus and comorbidities in patients attending the National Rehabilitation Institute-LGII in the period 2012-2013].

PubMed

Gómez Toledo, Verónica; Gutiérrez Farfán, Ileana; Verduzco-Mendoza, Antonio; Arch-Tirado, Emilio

Tinnitus is defined as the conscious perception of a sensation of sound that occurs in the absence of an external stimulus. This audiological symptom affects 7% to 19% of the adult population. The aim of this study is to describe the associated comorbidities present in patients with tinnitus usingjoint and conditional probability analysis. Patients of both genders, diagnosed with unilateral or bilateral tinnitus, aged between 20 and 45 years, and had a full computerised medical record, were selected. Study groups were formed on the basis of the following clinical aspects: 1) audiological findings; 2) vestibular findings; 3) comorbidities such as, temporomandibular dysfunction, tubal dysfunction, otosclerosis and, 4) triggering factors of tinnitus noise exposure, respiratory tract infection, use of ototoxic and/or drugs. Of the patients with tinnitus, 27 (65%) reported hearing loss, 11 (26.19%) temporomandibular dysfunction, and 11 (26.19%) with vestibular disorders. When performing the joint probability analysis, it was found that the probability that a patient with tinnitus having hearing loss was 2742 0.65, and 2042 0.47 for bilateral type. The result for P (A ∩ B)=30%. Bayes' theorem P (AiB) = P(Ai∩B)P(B) was used, and various probabilities were calculated. Therefore, in patients with temporomandibulardysfunction and vestibular disorders, a posterior probability of P (Aі/B)=31.44% was calculated. Consideration should be given to the joint and conditional probability approach as tools for the study of different pathologies. Copyright © 2016 Academia Mexicana de Cirugía A.C. Publicado por Masson Doyma México S.A. All rights reserved.

Efficient computation of the joint probability of multiple inherited risk alleles from pedigree data.

PubMed

Madsen, Thomas; Braun, Danielle; Peng, Gang; Parmigiani, Giovanni; Trippa, Lorenzo

2018-06-25

The Elston-Stewart peeling algorithm enables estimation of an individual's probability of harboring germline risk alleles based on pedigree data, and serves as the computational backbone of important genetic counseling tools. However, it remains limited to the analysis of risk alleles at a small number of genetic loci because its computing time grows exponentially with the number of loci considered. We propose a novel, approximate version of this algorithm, dubbed the peeling and paring algorithm, which scales polynomially in the number of loci. This allows extending peeling-based models to include many genetic loci. The algorithm creates a trade-off between accuracy and speed, and allows the user to control this trade-off. We provide exact bounds on the approximation error and evaluate it in realistic simulations. Results show that the loss of accuracy due to the approximation is negligible in important applications. This algorithm will improve genetic counseling tools by increasing the number of pathogenic risk alleles that can be addressed. To illustrate we create an extended five genes version of BRCAPRO, a widely used model for estimating the carrier probabilities of BRCA1 and BRCA2 risk alleles and assess its computational properties. © 2018 WILEY PERIODICALS, INC.

New color-based tracking algorithm for joints of the upper extremities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Xiangping; Chow, Daniel H. K.; Zheng, Xiaoxiang

2007-11-01

To track the joints of the upper limb of stroke sufferers for rehabilitation assessment, a new tracking algorithm which utilizes a developed color-based particle filter and a novel strategy for handling occlusions is proposed in this paper. Objects are represented by their color histogram models and particle filter is introduced to track the objects within a probability framework. Kalman filter, as a local optimizer, is integrated into the sampling stage of the particle filter that steers samples to a region with high likelihood and therefore fewer samples is required. A color clustering method and anatomic constraints are used in dealing with occlusion problem. Compared with the general basic particle filtering method, the experimental results show that the new algorithm has reduced the number of samples and hence the computational consumption, and has achieved better abilities of handling complete occlusion over a few frames.

A comparison of optimisation methods and knee joint degrees of freedom on muscle force predictions during single-leg hop landings.

PubMed

Mokhtarzadeh, Hossein; Perraton, Luke; Fok, Laurence; Muñoz, Mario A; Clark, Ross; Pivonka, Peter; Bryant, Adam L

2014-09-22

The aim of this paper was to compare the effect of different optimisation methods and different knee joint degrees of freedom (DOF) on muscle force predictions during a single legged hop. Nineteen subjects performed single-legged hopping manoeuvres and subject-specific musculoskeletal models were developed to predict muscle forces during the movement. Muscle forces were predicted using static optimisation (SO) and computed muscle control (CMC) methods using either 1 or 3 DOF knee joint models. All sagittal and transverse plane joint angles calculated using inverse kinematics or CMC in a 1 DOF or 3 DOF knee were well-matched (RMS error<3°). Biarticular muscles (hamstrings, rectus femoris and gastrocnemius) showed more differences in muscle force profiles when comparing between the different muscle prediction approaches where these muscles showed larger time delays for many of the comparisons. The muscle force magnitudes of vasti, gluteus maximus and gluteus medius were not greatly influenced by the choice of muscle force prediction method with low normalised root mean squared errors (<48%) observed in most comparisons. We conclude that SO and CMC can be used to predict lower-limb muscle co-contraction during hopping movements. However, care must be taken in interpreting the magnitude of force predicted in the biarticular muscles and the soleus, especially when using a 1 DOF knee. Despite this limitation, given that SO is a more robust and computationally efficient method for predicting muscle forces than CMC, we suggest that SO can be used in conjunction with musculoskeletal models that have a 1 or 3 DOF knee joint to study the relative differences and the role of muscles during hopping activities in future studies. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sacroiliac Joint Fusion Using Triangular Titanium Implants vs. Non-Surgical Management: Six-Month Outcomes from a Prospective Randomized Controlled Trial

PubMed Central

Whang, Peter; Polly, David; Frank, Clay; Lockstadt, Harry; Glaser, John; Limoni, Robert; Sembrano, Jonathan

2015-01-01

Background Sacroiliac (SI) joint pain is a prevalent, underdiagnosed cause of lower back pain. SI joint fusion can relieve pain and improve quality of life in patients who have failed nonoperative care. To date, no study has concurrently compared surgical and non-surgical treatments for chronic SI joint dysfunction. Methods We conducted a prospective randomized controlled trial of 148 subjects with SI joint dysfunction due to degenerative sacroiliitis or sacroiliac joint disruptions who were assigned to either minimally invasive SI joint fusion with triangular titanium implants (N=102) or non-surgical management (NSM, n=46). SI joint pain scores, Oswestry Disability Index (ODI), Short-Form 36 (SF-36) and EuroQol-5D (EQ-5D) were collected at baseline and at 1, 3 and 6 months after treatment commencement. Six-month success rates, defined as the proportion of treated subjects with a 20-mm improvement in SI joint pain in the absence of severe device-related or neurologic SI joint-related adverse events or surgical revision, were compared using Bayesian methods. Results Subjects (mean age 51, 70% women) were highly debilitated at baseline (mean SI joint VAS pain score 82, mean ODI score 62). Six-month follow-up was obtained in 97.3%. By 6 months, success rates were 81.4% in the surgical group vs. 23.9% in the NSM group (difference of 56.6%, 95% posterior credible interval 41.4-70.0%, posterior probability of superiority >0.999). Clinically important (≥15 point) ODI improvement at 6 months occurred in 75% of surgery subjects vs. 27.3% of NSM subjects. At six months, quality of life improved more in the surgery group and satisfaction rates were high. The mean number of adverse events in the first six months was slightly higher in the surgical group compared to the non-surgical group (1.3 vs. 1.0 events per subject, p=0.1857). Conclusions Six-month follow-up from this level 1 study showed that minimally invasive SI joint fusion using triangular titanium implants was more

Evaluation of three force-position hybrid control methods for a robot-based biological joint-testing system.

PubMed

Hsieh, Hong-Jung; Hu, Chih-Chung; Lu, Tung-Wu; Lu, Hsuan-Lun; Kuo, Mei-Ying; Kuo, Chien-Chung; Hsu, Horng-Chaung

2016-06-07

Robot-based joint-testing systems (RJTS) can be used to perform unconstrained laxity tests, measuring the stiffness of a degree of freedom (DOF) of the joint at a fixed flexion angle while allowing the other DOFs unconstrained movement. Previous studies using the force-position hybrid (FPH) control method proposed by Fujie et al. (J Biomech Eng 115(3):211-7, 1993) focused on anterior/posterior tests. Its convergence and applicability on other clinically relevant DOFs such as valgus/varus have not been demonstrated. The current s1tudy aimed to develop a 6-DOF RJTS using an industrial robot, to propose two new force-position hybrid control methods, and to evaluate the performance of the methods and FPH in controlling the RJTS for anterior/posterior and valgus/varus laxity tests of the knee joint. An RJTS was developed using an industrial 6-DOF robot with a 6-component load-cell attached at the effector. The performances of FPH and two new control methods, namely force-position alternate control (FPA) and force-position hybrid control with force-moment control (FPHFM), for unconstrained anterior/posterior and valgus/varus laxity tests were evaluated and compared with traditional constrained tests (CT) in terms of the number of control iterations, total time and the constraining forces and moments. As opposed to CT, the other three control methods successfully reduced the constraining forces and moments for both anterior/posterior and valgus/varus tests, FPHFM being the best followed in order by FPA and FPH. FPHFM had root-mean-squared constraining forces and moments of less than 2.2 N and 0.09 Nm, respectively at 0° flexion, and 2.3 N and 0.14 Nm at 30° flexion. The corresponding values for FPH were 8.5 N and 0.33 Nm, and 11.5 N and 0.45 Nm, respectively. Given the same control parameters including the compliance matrix, FPHFM and FPA reduced the constraining loads of FPH at the expense of additional control iterations, and thus increased total time, FPA

Joint protection and hand exercises for hand osteoarthritis: an economic evaluation comparing methods for the analysis of factorial trials

PubMed Central

Oppong, Raymond; Nicholls, Elaine; Whitehurst, David G. T.; Hill, Susan; Hammond, Alison; Hay, Elaine M.; Dziedzic, Krysia

2015-01-01

Objectives. Evidence regarding the cost-effectiveness of joint protection and hand exercises for the management of hand OA is not well established. The primary aim of this study is to assess the cost-effectiveness (cost-utility) of these management options. In addition, given the absence of consensus regarding the conduct of economic evaluation alongside factorial trials, we compare different analytical methodologies. Methods. A trial-based economic evaluation to assess the cost-utility of joint protection only, hand exercises only and joint protection plus hand exercises compared with leaflet and advice was undertaken over a 12 month period from a UK National Health Service perspective. Patient-level mean costs and mean quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were calculated for each trial arm. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were estimated and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves were constructed. The base case analysis used a within-the-table analysis methodology. Two further methods were explored: the at-the-margins approach and a regression-based approach with or without an interaction term. Results. Mean costs (QALYs) were £58.46 (s.d. 0.662) for leaflet and advice, £92.12 (s.d. 0.659) for joint protection, £64.51 (s.d. 0.681) for hand exercises and £112.38 (s.d. 0.658) for joint protection plus hand exercises. In the base case, hand exercises were the cost-effective option, with an ICER of £318 per QALY gained. Hand exercises remained the most cost-effective management strategy when adopting alternative methodological approaches. Conclusion. This is the first trial evaluating the cost-effectiveness of occupational therapy-supported approaches to self-management for hand OA. Our findings showed that hand exercises were the most cost-effective option. PMID:25339642

Evaluation of subsurface damage in concrete deck joints using impact echo method

DOE PAGES

Rickard, Larry; Choi, Wonchang

2016-01-01

Many factors can affect the overall performance and longevity of highway bridges, including the integrity of their deck joints. This study focuses on the evaluation of subsurface damage in deteriorated concrete deck joints, which includes the delamination and corrosion of the reinforcement. Impact echo and surface wave technology, mainly a portable seismic property analyzer (PSPA), were employed to evaluate the structural deficiency of concrete joints. Laboratory tests of core samples were conducted to verify the nondestructive test results. As a result, the primary advantage of the PSPA as a bridge assessment tool lies in its ability to assess the concrete’smore » modulus and to detect subsurface defects at a particular point simultaneously.« less

Probability density of tunneled carrier states near heterojunctions calculated numerically by the scattering method.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wampler, William R.; Myers, Samuel M.; Modine, Normand A.

2017-09-01

The energy-dependent probability density of tunneled carrier states for arbitrarily specified longitudinal potential-energy profiles in planar bipolar devices is numerically computed using the scattering method. Results agree accurately with a previous treatment based on solution of the localized eigenvalue problem, where computation times are much greater. These developments enable quantitative treatment of tunneling-assisted recombination in irradiated heterojunction bipolar transistors, where band offsets may enhance the tunneling effect by orders of magnitude. The calculations also reveal the density of non-tunneled carrier states in spatially varying potentials, and thereby test the common approximation of uniform- bulk values for such densities.

Structural behavior of the space shuttle SRM Tang-Clevis joint

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Greene, W. H.; Knight, N. F., Jr.; Stockwell, A. E.

1986-01-01

The space shuttle Challenger accident investigation focused on the failure of a tang-clevis joint on the right solid rocket motor. The existence of relative motion between the inner arm of the clevis and the O-ring sealing surface on the tang has been identified as a potential contributor to this failure. This motion can cause the O-rings to become unseated and therefore lose their sealing capability. Finite element structural analyses have been performed to predict both deflections and stresses in the joint under the primary, pressure loading condition. These analyses have demonstrated the difficulty of accurately predicting the structural behavior of the tang-clevis joint. Stresses in the vicinity of the connecting pins, obtained from elastic analyses, considerably exceed the material yield allowables indicating that inelastic analyses are probably necessary. Two modifications have been proposed to control the relative motion between the inner clevis arm and the tang at the O-ring sealing surface. One modification, referred to as the capture feature, uses additional material on the inside of the tang to restrict motion of the inner clevis arm. The other modification uses external stiffening rings above and below the joint to control the local bending in the shell near the joint. Both of these modifications are shown to be effective in controlling the relative motion in the joint.

Structural behavior of the space shuttle SRM tang-clevis joint

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Greene, William H.; Knight, Norman F., Jr.; Stockwell, Alan E.

1988-01-01

The space shuttle Challenger accident investigation focused on the failure of a tang-clevis joint on the right solid rocket motor. The existence of relative motion between the inner arm of the clevis and the O-ring sealing surface on the tang has been identified as a potential contributor to this failure. This motion can cause the O-rings to become unseated and therefore lose their sealing capability. Finite element structural analyses have been performed to predict both deflections and stresses in the joint under the primary, pressure loading condition. These analyses have demonstrated the difficulty of accurately predicting the structural behavior of the tang-clevis joint. Stresses in the vicinity of the connecting pins, obtained from elastic analyses, considerably exceed the material yield allowables indicating that inelastic analyses are probably necessary. Two modifications have been proposed to control the relative motion between the inner clevis arm and the tang at the O-ring sealing surface. One modification, referred to as the capture feature, uses additional material on the inside of the tang to restrict motion of the inner clevis arm. The other modification uses external stiffening rings above and below the joint to control the local bending in the shell near the joint. Both of these modifications are shown to be effective in controlling the relative motion in the joint.

Methods for estimating dispersal probabilities and related parameters using marked animals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bennetts, R.E.; Nichols, J.D.; Pradel, R.; Lebreton, J.D.; Kitchens, W.M.; Clobert, Jean; Danchin, Etienne; Dhondt, Andre A.; Nichols, James D.

2001-01-01

Deriving valid inferences about the causes and consequences of dispersal from empirical studies depends largely on our ability reliably to estimate parameters associated with dispersal. Here, we present a review of the methods available for estimating dispersal and related parameters using marked individuals. We emphasize methods that place dispersal in a probabilistic framework. In this context, we define a dispersal event as a movement of a specified distance or from one predefined patch to another, the magnitude of the distance or the definition of a `patch? depending on the ecological or evolutionary question(s) being addressed. We have organized the chapter based on four general classes of data for animals that are captured, marked, and released alive: (1) recovery data, in which animals are recovered dead at a subsequent time, (2) recapture/resighting data, in which animals are either recaptured or resighted alive on subsequent sampling occasions, (3) known-status data, in which marked animals are reobserved alive or dead at specified times with probability 1.0, and (4) combined data, in which data are of more than one type (e.g., live recapture and ring recovery). For each data type, we discuss the data required, the estimation techniques, and the types of questions that might be addressed from studies conducted at single and multiple sites.

A method for classification of multisource data using interval-valued probabilities and its application to HIRIS data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, H.; Swain, P. H.

1991-01-01

A method of classifying multisource data in remote sensing is presented. The proposed method considers each data source as an information source providing a body of evidence, represents statistical evidence by interval-valued probabilities, and uses Dempster's rule to integrate information based on multiple data source. The method is applied to the problems of ground-cover classification of multispectral data combined with digital terrain data such as elevation, slope, and aspect. Then this method is applied to simulated 201-band High Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (HIRIS) data by dividing the dimensionally huge data source into smaller and more manageable pieces based on the global statistical correlation information. It produces higher classification accuracy than the Maximum Likelihood (ML) classification method when the Hughes phenomenon is apparent.

Can symptomatic acromioclavicular joints be differentiated from asymptomatic acromioclavicular joints on 3-T MR imaging?

PubMed

Choo, Hye Jung; Lee, Sun Joo; Kim, Jung Han; Cha, Seong Sook; Park, Young Mi; Park, Ji Sung; Lee, Jun Woo; Oh, Minkyung

2013-04-01

To evaluate retrospectively whether symptomatic acromioclavicular joints can be differentiated from asymptomatic acromioclavicular joints on 3-T MR imaging. This study included 146 patients who underwent physical examination of acromioclavicular joints and 3-T MR imaging of the shoulder. Among them, 67 patients showing positive results on physical examination were assigned to the symptomatic group, whereas 79 showing negative results were assigned to the asymptomatic group. The following MR findings were compared between the symptomatic and asymptomatic groups: presence of osteophytes, articular surface irregularity, subchondral cysts, acromioclavicular joint fluid, subacromial fluid, subacromial bony spurs, joint capsular distension, bone edema, intraarticular enhancement, periarticular enhancement, superior and inferior joint capsular distension degree, and joint capsular thickness. The patients were subsequently divided into groups based on age (younger, older) and the method of MR arthrography (direct MR arthrography, indirect MR arthrography), and all the MR findings in each subgroup were reanalyzed. The meaningful cutoff value of each significant continuous variable was calculated using receiver operating characteristic analysis. The degree of superior capsular distension was the only significant MR finding of symptomatic acromioclavicular joints and its meaningful cutoff value was 2.1mm. After subgroup analyses, this variable was significant in the older age group and indirect MR arthrography group. On 3-T MR imaging, the degree of superior joint capsular distension might be a predictable MR finding in the diagnosis of symptomatic acromioclavicular joints. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of Rock Joint Coefficients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Audy, Ondřej; Ficker, Tomáš

2017-10-01

A computer method for evaluation of rock joint coefficients is described and several applications are presented. The method is based on two absolute numerical indicators that are formed by means of the Fourier replicas of rock joint profiles. The first indicator quantifies the vertical depth of profiles and the second indicator classifies wavy character of profiles. The absolute indicators have replaced the formerly used relative indicators that showed some artificial behavior in some cases. This contribution is focused on practical computations testing the functionality of the newly introduced indicators.

Combining Probability Distributions of Wind Waves and Sea Level Variations to Assess Return Periods of Coastal Floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leijala, U.; Bjorkqvist, J. V.; Pellikka, H.; Johansson, M. M.; Kahma, K. K.

2017-12-01

Predicting the behaviour of the joint effect of sea level and wind waves is of great significance due to the major impact of flooding events in densely populated coastal regions. As mean sea level rises, the effect of sea level variations accompanied by the waves will be even more harmful in the future. The main challenge when evaluating the effect of waves and sea level variations is that long time series of both variables rarely exist. Wave statistics are also highly location-dependent, thus requiring wave buoy measurements and/or high-resolution wave modelling. As an initial approximation of the joint effect, the variables may be treated as independent random variables, to achieve the probability distribution of their sum. We present results of a case study based on three probability distributions: 1) wave run-up constructed from individual wave buoy measurements, 2) short-term sea level variability based on tide gauge data, and 3) mean sea level projections based on up-to-date regional scenarios. The wave measurements were conducted during 2012-2014 on the coast of city of Helsinki located in the Gulf of Finland in the Baltic Sea. The short-term sea level distribution contains the last 30 years (1986-2015) of hourly data from Helsinki tide gauge, and the mean sea level projections are scenarios adjusted for the Gulf of Finland. Additionally, we present a sensitivity test based on six different theoretical wave height distributions representing different wave behaviour in relation to sea level variations. As these wave distributions are merged with one common sea level distribution, we can study how the different shapes of the wave height distribution affect the distribution of the sum, and which one of the components is dominating under different wave conditions. As an outcome of the method, we obtain a probability distribution of the maximum elevation of the continuous water mass, which enables a flexible tool for evaluating different risk levels in the

Nonlinear Analysis of Bonded Composite Tubular Lap Joints

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oterkus, E.; Madenci, E.; Smeltzer, S. S., III; Ambur, D. R.

2005-01-01

The present study describes a semi-analytical solution method for predicting the geometrically nonlinear response of a bonded composite tubular single-lap joint subjected to general loading conditions. The transverse shear and normal stresses in the adhesive as well as membrane stress resultants and bending moments in the adherends are determined using this method. The method utilizes the principle of virtual work in conjunction with nonlinear thin-shell theory to model the adherends and a cylindrical shear lag model to represent the kinematics of the thin adhesive layer between the adherends. The kinematic boundary conditions are imposed by employing the Lagrange multiplier method. In the solution procedure, the displacement components for the tubular joint are approximated in terms of non-periodic and periodic B-Spline functions in the longitudinal and circumferential directions, respectively. The approach presented herein represents a rapid-solution alternative to the finite element method. The solution method was validated by comparison against a previously considered tubular single-lap joint. The steep variation of both peeling and shearing stresses near the adhesive edges was successfully captured. The applicability of the present method was also demonstrated by considering tubular bonded lap-joints subjected to pure bending and torsion.

Bayesian Probability Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von der Linden, Wolfgang; Dose, Volker; von Toussaint, Udo

2014-06-01

Preface; Part I. Introduction: 1. The meaning of probability; 2. Basic definitions; 3. Bayesian inference; 4. Combinatrics; 5. Random walks; 6. Limit theorems; 7. Continuous distributions; 8. The central limit theorem; 9. Poisson processes and waiting times; Part II. Assigning Probabilities: 10. Transformation invariance; 11. Maximum entropy; 12. Qualified maximum entropy; 13. Global smoothness; Part III. Parameter Estimation: 14. Bayesian parameter estimation; 15. Frequentist parameter estimation; 16. The Cramer-Rao inequality; Part IV. Testing Hypotheses: 17. The Bayesian way; 18. The frequentist way; 19. Sampling distributions; 20. Bayesian vs frequentist hypothesis tests; Part V. Real World Applications: 21. Regression; 22. Inconsistent data; 23. Unrecognized signal contributions; 24. Change point problems; 25. Function estimation; 26. Integral equations; 27. Model selection; 28. Bayesian experimental design; Part VI. Probabilistic Numerical Techniques: 29. Numerical integration; 30. Monte Carlo methods; 31. Nested sampling; Appendixes; References; Index.

Techniques of Force and Pressure Measurement in the Small Joints of the Wrist.

PubMed

Schreck, Michael J; Kelly, Meghan; Canham, Colin D; Elfar, John C

2018-01-01

The alteration of forces across joints can result in instability and subsequent disability. Previous methods of force measurements such as pressure-sensitive films, load cells, and pressure-sensing transducers have been utilized to estimate biomechanical forces across joints and more recent studies have utilized a nondestructive method that allows for assessment of joint forces under ligamentous restraints. A comprehensive review of the literature was performed to explore the numerous biomechanical methods utilized to estimate intra-articular forces. Methods of biomechanical force measurements in joints are reviewed. Methods such as pressure-sensitive films, load cells, and pressure-sensing transducers require significant intra-articular disruption and thus may result in inaccurate measurements, especially in small joints such as those within the wrist and hand. Non-destructive methods of joint force measurements either utilizing distraction-based joint reaction force methods or finite element analysis may offer a more accurate assessment; however, given their recent inception, further studies are needed to improve and validate their use.

Uncontrolled Manifold Reference Feedback Control of Multi-Joint Robot Arms

PubMed Central

Togo, Shunta; Kagawa, Takahiro; Uno, Yoji

2016-01-01

The brain must coordinate with redundant bodies to perform motion tasks. The aim of the present study is to propose a novel control model that predicts the characteristics of human joint coordination at a behavioral level. To evaluate the joint coordination, an uncontrolled manifold (UCM) analysis that focuses on the trial-to-trial variance of joints has been proposed. The UCM is a nonlinear manifold associated with redundant kinematics. In this study, we directly applied the notion of the UCM to our proposed control model called the “UCM reference feedback control.” To simplify the problem, the present study considered how the redundant joints were controlled to regulate a given target hand position. We considered a conventional method that pre-determined a unique target joint trajectory by inverse kinematics or any other optimization method. In contrast, our proposed control method generates a UCM as a control target at each time step. The target UCM is a subspace of joint angles whose variability does not affect the hand position. The joint combination in the target UCM is then selected so as to minimize the cost function, which consisted of the joint torque and torque change. To examine whether the proposed method could reproduce human-like joint coordination, we conducted simulation and measurement experiments. In the simulation experiments, a three-link arm with a shoulder, elbow, and wrist regulates a one-dimensional target of a hand through proposed method. In the measurement experiments, subjects performed a one-dimensional target-tracking task. The kinematics, dynamics, and joint coordination were quantitatively compared with the simulation data of the proposed method. As a result, the UCM reference feedback control could quantitatively reproduce the difference of the mean value for the end hand position between the initial postures, the peaks of the bell-shape tangential hand velocity, the sum of the squared torque, the mean value for the torque

Understanding the joint behavior of temperature and precipitation for climate change impact studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rana, Arun; Moradkhani, Hamid; Qin, Yueyue

2017-07-01

The multiple downscaled scenario products allow us to assess the uncertainty of the variations of precipitation and temperature in the current and future periods. Probabilistic assessments of both climatic variables help better understand the interdependence of the two and thus, in turn, help in assessing the future with confidence. In the present study, we use ensemble of statistically downscaled precipitation and temperature from various models. The dataset used is multi-model ensemble of 10 global climate models (GCMs) downscaled product from CMIP5 daily dataset using the Bias Correction and Spatial Downscaling (BCSD) technique, generated at Portland State University. The multi-model ensemble of both precipitation and temperature is evaluated for dry and wet periods for 10 sub-basins across Columbia River Basin (CRB). Thereafter, copula is applied to establish the joint distribution of two variables on multi-model ensemble data. The joint distribution is then used to estimate the change in trends of said variables in future, along with estimation of the probabilities of the given change. The joint distribution trends vary, but certainly positive, for dry and wet periods in sub-basins of CRB. Dry season, generally, is indicating a higher positive change in precipitation than temperature (as compared to historical) across sub-basins with wet season inferring otherwise. Probabilities of changes in future, as estimated from the joint distribution, indicate varied degrees and forms during dry season whereas the wet season is rather constant across all the sub-basins.

Non-destructive and non-invasive observation of friction and wear of human joints and of fracture initiation by acoustic emission.

PubMed

Schwalbe, H J; Bamfaste, G; Franke, R P

1999-01-01

Quality control in orthopaedic diagnostics according to DIN EN ISO 9000ff requires methods of non-destructive process control, which do not harm the patient by radiation or by invasive examinations. To obtain an improvement in health economy, quality-controlled and non-destructive measurements have to be introduced into the diagnostics and therapy of human joints and bones. A non-invasive evaluation of the state of wear of human joints and of the cracking tendency of bones is, as of today's point of knowledge, not established. The analysis of acoustic emission signals allows the prediction of bone rupture far below the fracture load. The evaluation of dry and wet bone samples revealed that it is possible to conclude from crack initiation to the bone strength and thus to predict the probability of bone rupture.

Series approximation to probability densities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, L.

2018-04-01

One of the historical and fundamental uses of the Edgeworth and Gram-Charlier series is to "correct" a Gaussian density when it is determined that the probability density under consideration has moments that do not correspond to the Gaussian [5, 6]. There is a fundamental difficulty with these methods in that if the series are truncated, then the resulting approximate density is not manifestly positive. The aim of this paper is to attempt to expand a probability density so that if it is truncated it will still be manifestly positive.

Probable flood predictions in ungauged coastal basins of El Salvador

USGS Publications Warehouse

Friedel, M.J.; Smith, M.E.; Chica, A.M.E.; Litke, D.

2008-01-01

A regionalization procedure is presented and used to predict probable flooding in four ungauged coastal river basins of El Salvador: Paz, Jiboa, Grande de San Miguel, and Goascoran. The flood-prediction problem is sequentially solved for two regions: upstream mountains and downstream alluvial plains. In the upstream mountains, a set of rainfall-runoff parameter values and recurrent peak-flow discharge hydrographs are simultaneously estimated for 20 tributary-basin models. Application of dissimilarity equations among tributary basins (soft prior information) permitted development of a parsimonious parameter structure subject to information content in the recurrent peak-flow discharge values derived using regression equations based on measurements recorded outside the ungauged study basins. The estimated joint set of parameter values formed the basis from which probable minimum and maximum peak-flow discharge limits were then estimated revealing that prediction uncertainty increases with basin size. In the downstream alluvial plain, model application of the estimated minimum and maximum peak-flow hydrographs facilitated simulation of probable 100-year flood-flow depths in confined canyons and across unconfined coastal alluvial plains. The regionalization procedure provides a tool for hydrologic risk assessment and flood protection planning that is not restricted to the case presented herein. ?? 2008 ASCE.

Computed tomographic method for measurement of inclination angles and motion of the sacroiliac joints in German Shepherd Dogs and Greyhounds.

PubMed

Saunders, Fritha C; Cave, Nick J; Hartman, Karl M; Gee, Erica K; Worth, Andrew J; Bridges, Janis P; Hartman, Angela C

2013-09-01

To develop an in vivo CT method to measure inclination angles and motion of the sacroiliac joints in dogs of performance breeds. 10 German Shepherd Dogs and 12 Greyhounds without signs of lumbosacral region pain or neurologic problems. CT of the ilium and sacrum was performed in flexed, neutral, and extended hind limb positions. Lines were drawn on volume-rendered images acquired in the flexed and extended positions to measure motion of the ilia relative to the sacra. Inclination angles of the synovial and ligamentous components of the sacroiliac joints were measured on transverse-plane CT images acquired at cranial and caudal locations. Coefficients of variance of measurements were calculated to determine intraobserver variability. Coefficients of variance of measurements ranged from 0.17% to 2.45%. A significantly higher amount of sacroiliac joint rotational motion was detected for German Shepherd Dogs versus Greyhounds. The cranial synovial joint component had a significantly more sagittal orientation in German Shepherd Dogs versus Greyhounds. No significant differences were detected between breeds for x- or y-axis translational motion or caudal synovial or ligamentous joint component inclination angles. The small amounts of sacroiliac joint motion detected in this study may buffer high-frequency vibrations during movement of dogs. Differences detected between breeds may be associated with the predisposition of German Shepherd Dogs to develop lumbosacral region signs of pain, although the biological importance of this finding was not determined. Future studies are warranted to compare sacroiliac joint variables between German Shepherd Dogs with and without lumbosacral region signs of pain.

Space Suit Joint Torque Testing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Valish, Dana J.

2011-01-01

In 2009 and early 2010, a test was performed to quantify the torque required to manipulate joints in several existing operational and prototype space suits in an effort to develop joint torque requirements appropriate for a new Constellation Program space suit system. The same test method was levied on the Constellation space suit contractors to verify that their suit design meets the requirements. However, because the original test was set up and conducted by a single test operator there was some question as to whether this method was repeatable enough to be considered a standard verification method for Constellation or other future space suits. In order to validate the method itself, a representative subset of the previous test was repeated, using the same information that would be available to space suit contractors, but set up and conducted by someone not familiar with the previous test. The resultant data was compared using graphical and statistical analysis and a variance in torque values for some of the tested joints was apparent. Potential variables that could have affected the data were identified and re-testing was conducted in an attempt to eliminate these variables. The results of the retest will be used to determine if further testing and modification is necessary before the method can be validated.

Automatic Quantification of Radiographic Wrist Joint Space Width of Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis.

PubMed

Huo, Yinghe; Vincken, Koen L; van der Heijde, Desiree; de Hair, Maria J H; Lafeber, Floris P; Viergever, Max A

2017-11-01

Objective: Wrist joint space narrowing is a main radiographic outcome of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Yet, automatic radiographic wrist joint space width (JSW) quantification for RA patients has not been widely investigated. The aim of this paper is to present an automatic method to quantify the JSW of three wrist joints that are least affected by bone overlapping and are frequently involved in RA. These joints are located around the scaphoid bone, viz. the multangular-navicular, capitate-navicular-lunate, and radiocarpal joints. Methods: The joint space around the scaphoid bone is detected by using consecutive searches of separate path segments, where each segment location aids in constraining the subsequent one. For joint margin delineation, first the boundary not affected by X-ray projection is extracted, followed by a backtrace process to obtain the actual joint margin. The accuracy of the quantified JSW is evaluated by comparison with the manually obtained ground truth. Results: Two of the 50 radiographs used for evaluation of the method did not yield a correct path through all three wrist joints. The delineated joint margins of the remaining 48 radiographs were used for JSW quantification. It was found that 90% of the joints had a JSW deviating less than 20% from the mean JSW of manual indications, with the mean JSW error less than 10%. Conclusion: The proposed method is able to automatically quantify the JSW of radiographic wrist joints reliably. The proposed method may aid clinical researchers to study the progression of wrist joint damage in RA studies. Objective: Wrist joint space narrowing is a main radiographic outcome of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Yet, automatic radiographic wrist joint space width (JSW) quantification for RA patients has not been widely investigated. The aim of this paper is to present an automatic method to quantify the JSW of three wrist joints that are least affected by bone overlapping and are frequently involved in RA. These joints

Joint multifractal analysis based on wavelet leaders

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Yang, Yan-Hong; Wang, Gang-Jin; Zhou, Wei-Xing

2017-12-01

Mutually interacting components form complex systems and these components usually have long-range cross-correlated outputs. Using wavelet leaders, we propose a method for characterizing the joint multifractal nature of these long-range cross correlations; we call this method joint multifractal analysis based on wavelet leaders (MF-X-WL). We test the validity of the MF-X-WL method by performing extensive numerical experiments on dual binomial measures with multifractal cross correlations and bivariate fractional Brownian motions (bFBMs) with monofractal cross correlations. Both experiments indicate that MF-X-WL is capable of detecting cross correlations in synthetic data with acceptable estimating errors. We also apply the MF-X-WL method to pairs of series from financial markets (returns and volatilities) and online worlds (online numbers of different genders and different societies) and determine intriguing joint multifractal behavior.

Analysis of Bonded Joints Between the Facesheet and Flange of Corrugated Composite Panels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yarrington, Phillip W.; Collier, Craig S.; Bednarcyk, Brett A.

2008-01-01

This paper outlines a method for the stress analysis of bonded composite corrugated panel facesheet to flange joints. The method relies on the existing HyperSizer Joints software, which analyzes the bonded joint, along with a beam analogy model that provides the necessary boundary loading conditions to the joint analysis. The method is capable of predicting the full multiaxial stress and strain fields within the flange to facesheet joint and thus can determine ply-level margins and evaluate delamination. Results comparing the method to NASTRAN finite element model stress fields are provided illustrating the accuracy of the method.

Improving Salmonella determination in Sinaloa rivers with ultrafiltration and most probable number methods.

PubMed

Jimenez, Maribel; Chaidez, Cristobal

2012-07-01

Monitoring of waterborne pathogens is improved by using concentration methods prior to detection; however, direct microbial enumeration is desired to study microbial ecology and human health risks. The aim of this work was to determine Salmonella presence in river water with an ultrafiltration system coupled with the ISO 6579:1993 isolation standard method (UFS-ISO). Most probable number (MPN) method was used directly in water samples to estimate Salmonella populations. Additionally, the effect between Salmonella determination and water turbidity was evaluated. Ten liters or three tenfold dilutions (1, 0.1, and 0.01 mL) of water were processed for Salmonella detection and estimation by the UFS-ISO and MPN methods, respectively. A total of 84 water samples were tested, and Salmonella was confirmed in 64/84 (76%) and 38/84 (44%) when UFS-ISO and MPN were used, respectively. Salmonella populations were less than 5 × 10(3) MPN/L in 73/84 of samples evaluated (87%), and only three (3.5%) showed contamination with numbers greater than 4.5 × 10(4) MPN/L. Water turbidity did not affect Salmonella determination regardless of the performed method. These findings suggest that Salmonella abundance in Sinaloa rivers is not a health risk for human infections in spite of its persistence. Thus, choosing the appropriate strategy to study Salmonella in river water samples is necessary to clarify its behavior and transport in the environment.

The method of a joint intraday security check system based on cloud computing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Wei; Feng, Changyou; Zhou, Caiqi; Cai, Zhi; Dan, Xu; Dai, Sai; Zhang, Chuancheng

2017-01-01

The intraday security check is the core application in the dispatching control system. The existing security check calculation only uses the dispatch center’s local model and data as the functional margin. This paper introduces the design of all-grid intraday joint security check system based on cloud computing and its implementation. To reduce the effect of subarea bad data on the all-grid security check, a new power flow algorithm basing on comparison and adjustment with inter-provincial tie-line plan is presented. And the numerical example illustrated the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method.

Sequential Probability Ratio Test for Collision Avoidance Maneuver Decisions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carpenter, J. Russell; Markley, F. Landis

2010-01-01

When facing a conjunction between space objects, decision makers must chose whether to maneuver for collision avoidance or not. We apply a well-known decision procedure, the sequential probability ratio test, to this problem. We propose two approaches to the problem solution, one based on a frequentist method, and the other on a Bayesian method. The frequentist method does not require any prior knowledge concerning the conjunction, while the Bayesian method assumes knowledge of prior probability densities. Our results show that both methods achieve desired missed detection rates, but the frequentist method's false alarm performance is inferior to the Bayesian method's

Nonprobability and probability-based sampling strategies in sexual science.

PubMed

Catania, Joseph A; Dolcini, M Margaret; Orellana, Roberto; Narayanan, Vasudah

2015-01-01

With few exceptions, much of sexual science builds upon data from opportunistic nonprobability samples of limited generalizability. Although probability-based studies are considered the gold standard in terms of generalizability, they are costly to apply to many of the hard-to-reach populations of interest to sexologists. The present article discusses recent conclusions by sampling experts that have relevance to sexual science that advocates for nonprobability methods. In this regard, we provide an overview of Internet sampling as a useful, cost-efficient, nonprobability sampling method of value to sex researchers conducting modeling work or clinical trials. We also argue that probability-based sampling methods may be more readily applied in sex research with hard-to-reach populations than is typically thought. In this context, we provide three case studies that utilize qualitative and quantitative techniques directed at reducing limitations in applying probability-based sampling to hard-to-reach populations: indigenous Peruvians, African American youth, and urban men who have sex with men (MSM). Recommendations are made with regard to presampling studies, adaptive and disproportionate sampling methods, and strategies that may be utilized in evaluating nonprobability and probability-based sampling methods.

Modeling and optimization of joint quality for laser transmission joint of thermoplastic using an artificial neural network and a genetic algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xiao; Zhang, Cheng; Li, Pin; Wang, Kai; Hu, Yang; Zhang, Peng; Liu, Huixia

2012-11-01

A central composite rotatable experimental design(CCRD) is conducted to design experiments for laser transmission joining of thermoplastic-Polycarbonate (PC). The artificial neural network was used to establish the relationships between laser transmission joining process parameters (the laser power, velocity, clamp pressure, scanning number) and joint strength and joint seam width. The developed mathematical models are tested by analysis of variance (ANOVA) method to check their adequacy and the effects of process parameters on the responses and the interaction effects of key process parameters on the quality are analyzed and discussed. Finally, the desirability function coupled with genetic algorithm is used to carry out the optimization of the joint strength and joint width. The results show that the predicted results of the optimization are in good agreement with the experimental results, so this study provides an effective method to enhance the joint quality.

Bolted joints in graphite-epoxy composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hart-Smith, L. J.

1976-01-01

All-graphite/epoxy laminates and hybrid graphite-glass/epoxy laminates were tested. The tests encompassed a range of geometries for each laminate pattern to cover the three basic failure modes - net section tension failure through the bolt hole, bearing and shearout. Static tensile and compressive loads were applied. A constant bolt diameter of 6.35 mm (0.25 in.) was used in the tests. The interaction of stress concentrations associated with multi-row bolted joints was investigated by testing single- and double-row bolted joints and open-hole specimens in tension. For tension loading, linear interaction was found to exist between the bearing stress reacted at a given bolt hole and the remaining tension stress running by that hole to be reacted elsewhere. The interaction under compressive loading was found to be non-linear. Comparative tests were run using single-lap bolted joints and double-lap joints with pin connection. Both of these joint types exhibited lower strengths than were demonstrated by the corresponding double-lap joints. The analysis methods developed here for single bolt joints are shown to be capable of predicting the behavior of multi-row joints.

Biomimetic-inspired joining of composite with metal structures: A survey of natural joints and application to single lap joints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avgoulas, Evangelos Ioannis; Sutcliffe, Michael P. F.

2014-03-01

Joining composites with metal parts leads, inevitably, to high stress concentrations because of the material property mismatch. Since joining composite to metal is required in many high performance structures, there is a need to develop a new multifunctional approach to meet this challenge. This paper uses the biomimetics approach to help develop solutions to this problem. Nature has found many ingenious ways of joining dissimilar materials and making robust attachments, alleviating potential stress concentrations. A literature survey of natural joint systems has been carried out, identifying and analysing different natural joint methods from a mechanical perspective. A taxonomy table was developed based on the different methods/functions that nature successfully uses to attach dissimilar tissues (materials). This table is used to understand common themes or approaches used in nature for different joint configurations and functionalities. One of the key characteristics that nature uses to joint dissimilar materials is a transitional zone of stiffness in the insertion site. Several biomimetic-inspired metal-to-composite (steel-to-CFRP), adhesively bonded, Single Lap Joints (SLJs) were numerically investigated using a finite element analysis. The proposed solutions offer a transitional zone of stiffness of one joint part to reduce the material stiffness mismatch at the joint. An optimisation procedure was used to identify the variation in material stiffness which minimises potential failure of the joint. It was found that the proposed biomimetic SLJs reduce the asymmetry of the stress distribution along the adhesive area.

Joint Dictionary Learning for Multispectral Change Detection.

PubMed

Lu, Xiaoqiang; Yuan, Yuan; Zheng, Xiangtao

2017-04-01

Change detection is one of the most important applications of remote sensing technology. It is a challenging task due to the obvious variations in the radiometric value of spectral signature and the limited capability of utilizing spectral information. In this paper, an improved sparse coding method for change detection is proposed. The intuition of the proposed method is that unchanged pixels in different images can be well reconstructed by the joint dictionary, which corresponds to knowledge of unchanged pixels, while changed pixels cannot. First, a query image pair is projected onto the joint dictionary to constitute the knowledge of unchanged pixels. Then reconstruction error is obtained to discriminate between the changed and unchanged pixels in the different images. To select the proper thresholds for determining changed regions, an automatic threshold selection strategy is presented by minimizing the reconstruction errors of the changed pixels. Adequate experiments on multispectral data have been tested, and the experimental results compared with the state-of-the-art methods prove the superiority of the proposed method. Contributions of the proposed method can be summarized as follows: 1) joint dictionary learning is proposed to explore the intrinsic information of different images for change detection. In this case, change detection can be transformed as a sparse representation problem. To the authors' knowledge, few publications utilize joint learning dictionary in change detection; 2) an automatic threshold selection strategy is presented, which minimizes the reconstruction errors of the changed pixels without the prior assumption of the spectral signature. As a result, the threshold value provided by the proposed method can adapt to different data due to the characteristic of joint dictionary learning; and 3) the proposed method makes no prior assumption of the modeling and the handling of the spectral signature, which can be adapted to different data.

Modeling Anisotropic Elastic Wave Propagation in Jointed Rock Masses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurley, R.; Vorobiev, O.; Ezzedine, S. M.; Antoun, T.

2016-12-01

We present a numerical approach for determining the anisotropic stiffness of materials with nonlinearly-compliant joints capable of sliding. The proposed method extends existing ones for upscaling the behavior of a medium with open cracks and inclusions to cases relevant to natural fractured and jointed rocks, where nonlinearly-compliant joints can undergo plastic slip. The method deviates from existing techniques by incorporating the friction and closure states of the joints, and recovers an anisotropic elastic form in the small-strain limit when joints are not sliding. We present the mathematical formulation of our method and use Representative Volume Element (RVE) simulations to evaluate its accuracy for joint sets with varying complexity. We then apply the formulation to determine anisotropic elastic constants of jointed granite found at the Nevada Nuclear Security Site (NNSS) where the Source Physics Experiments (SPE), a campaign of underground chemical explosions, are performed. Finally, we discuss the implementation of our numerical approach in a massively parallel Lagrangian code Geodyn-L and its use for studying wave propagation from underground explosions. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

Development and application of a probability distribution retrieval scheme to the remote sensing of clouds and precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKague, Darren Shawn

2001-12-01

The statistical properties of clouds and precipitation on a global scale are important to our understanding of climate. Inversion methods exist to retrieve the needed cloud and precipitation properties from satellite data pixel-by-pixel that can then be summarized over large data sets to obtain the desired statistics. These methods can be quite computationally expensive, and typically don't provide errors on the statistics. A new method is developed to directly retrieve probability distributions of parameters from the distribution of measured radiances. The method also provides estimates of the errors on the retrieved distributions. The method can retrieve joint distributions of parameters that allows for the study of the connection between parameters. A forward radiative transfer model creates a mapping from retrieval parameter space to radiance space. A Monte Carlo procedure uses the mapping to transform probability density from the observed radiance histogram to a two- dimensional retrieval property probability distribution function (PDF). An estimate of the uncertainty in the retrieved PDF is calculated from random realizations of the radiance to retrieval parameter PDF transformation given the uncertainty of the observed radiances, the radiance PDF, the forward radiative transfer, the finite number of prior state vectors, and the non-unique mapping to retrieval parameter space. The retrieval method is also applied to the remote sensing of precipitation from SSM/I microwave data. A method of stochastically generating hydrometeor fields based on the fields from a numerical cloud model is used to create the precipitation parameter radiance space transformation. The impact of vertical and horizontal variability within the hydrometeor fields has a significant impact on algorithm performance. Beamfilling factors are computed from the simulated hydrometeor fields. The beamfilling factors vary quite a bit depending upon the horizontal structure of the rain. The

Failure probability analysis of optical grid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, Yaoquan; Guo, Wei; Sun, Weiqiang; Jin, Yaohui; Hu, Weisheng

2008-11-01

Optical grid, the integrated computing environment based on optical network, is expected to be an efficient infrastructure to support advanced data-intensive grid applications. In optical grid, the faults of both computational and network resources are inevitable due to the large scale and high complexity of the system. With the optical network based distributed computing systems extensive applied in the processing of data, the requirement of the application failure probability have been an important indicator of the quality of application and an important aspect the operators consider. This paper will present a task-based analysis method of the application failure probability in optical grid. Then the failure probability of the entire application can be quantified, and the performance of reducing application failure probability in different backup strategies can be compared, so that the different requirements of different clients can be satisfied according to the application failure probability respectively. In optical grid, when the application based DAG (directed acyclic graph) is executed in different backup strategies, the application failure probability and the application complete time is different. This paper will propose new multi-objective differentiated services algorithm (MDSA). New application scheduling algorithm can guarantee the requirement of the failure probability and improve the network resource utilization, realize a compromise between the network operator and the application submission. Then differentiated services can be achieved in optical grid.

Probability-based hazard avoidance guidance for planetary landing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Xu; Yu, Zhengshi; Cui, Pingyuan; Xu, Rui; Zhu, Shengying; Cao, Menglong; Luan, Enjie

2018-03-01

Future landing and sample return missions on planets and small bodies will seek landing sites with high scientific value, which may be located in hazardous terrains. Autonomous landing in such hazardous terrains and highly uncertain planetary environments is particularly challenging. Onboard hazard avoidance ability is indispensable, and the algorithms must be robust to uncertainties. In this paper, a novel probability-based hazard avoidance guidance method is developed for landing in hazardous terrains on planets or small bodies. By regarding the lander state as probabilistic, the proposed guidance algorithm exploits information on the uncertainty of lander position and calculates the probability of collision with each hazard. The collision probability serves as an accurate safety index, which quantifies the impact of uncertainties on the lander safety. Based on the collision probability evaluation, the state uncertainty of the lander is explicitly taken into account in the derivation of the hazard avoidance guidance law, which contributes to enhancing the robustness to the uncertain dynamics of planetary landing. The proposed probability-based method derives fully analytic expressions and does not require off-line trajectory generation. Therefore, it is appropriate for real-time implementation. The performance of the probability-based guidance law is investigated via a set of simulations, and the effectiveness and robustness under uncertainties are demonstrated.

Solder Joint Health Monitoring Testbed

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Delaney, Michael M.; Flynn, James; Browder, Mark

2009-01-01

A method of monitoring the health of selected solder joints, called SJ-BIST, has been developed by Ridgetop Group Inc. under a Small Business Innovative Research (SBIR) contract. The primary goal of this research program is to test and validate this method in a flight environment using realistically seeded faults in selected solder joints. An additional objective is to gather environmental data for future development of physics-based and data-driven prognostics algorithms. A test board is being designed using a Xilinx FPGA. These boards will be tested both in flight and on the ground using a shaker table and an altitude chamber.

The cyclic fatigue behavior of adhesive joints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinloch, A. J.; Toh, T.

1995-06-01

In the last six months we have: (1) Concentrated our efforts on the fatigue failure of carbon-fiber PEEK/AFl63 lap joints, and in particular we have started to predict the life time of single-lap joints under cyclic fatigue loading. The analysis is based on data obtained from double cantilever beam (DCB) fracture mechanics tests; (2) Further, we have been successful in measuring the rate of crack growth in lap joints during fatigue fracture using ultrasonic scanning; (3) Preliminary test data on the static fracture of glass-fiber reinforced poly(phenylene sulphide) (PPS)/AF163 joints have also been studied; and (4) A comparison has been made in computing the critical strain energy release rate G(sub c) for the glass-fiber PPS/AF163 joints based on the compliance method, beam theory and corrected beam theory. The last method accounts for large non-linear deflections and the associated crack root rotations along with the necessary corrections for the increase in stiffness introduced by the presence of end blocks.

Joint Center Estimation Using Single-Frame Optimization: Part 1: Numerical Simulation.

PubMed

Frick, Eric; Rahmatalla, Salam

2018-04-04

The biomechanical models used to refine and stabilize motion capture processes are almost invariably driven by joint center estimates, and any errors in joint center calculation carry over and can be compounded when calculating joint kinematics. Unfortunately, accurate determination of joint centers is a complex task, primarily due to measurements being contaminated by soft-tissue artifact (STA). This paper proposes a novel approach to joint center estimation implemented via sequential application of single-frame optimization (SFO). First, the method minimizes the variance of individual time frames’ joint center estimations via the developed variance minimization method to obtain accurate overall initial conditions. These initial conditions are used to stabilize an optimization-based linearization of human motion that determines a time-varying joint center estimation. In this manner, the complex and nonlinear behavior of human motion contaminated by STA can be captured as a continuous series of unique rigid-body realizations without requiring a complex analytical model to describe the behavior of STA. This article intends to offer proof of concept, and the presented method must be further developed before it can be reasonably applied to human motion. Numerical simulations were introduced to verify and substantiate the efficacy of the proposed methodology. When directly compared with a state-of-the-art inertial method, SFO reduced the error due to soft-tissue artifact in all cases by more than 45%. Instead of producing a single vector value to describe the joint center location during a motion capture trial as existing methods often do, the proposed method produced time-varying solutions that were highly correlated ( r > 0.82) with the true, time-varying joint center solution.

Evaluating marginal likelihood with thermodynamic integration method and comparison with several other numerical methods

DOE PAGES

Liu, Peigui; Elshall, Ahmed S.; Ye, Ming; ...

2016-02-05

Evaluating marginal likelihood is the most critical and computationally expensive task, when conducting Bayesian model averaging to quantify parametric and model uncertainties. The evaluation is commonly done by using Laplace approximations to evaluate semianalytical expressions of the marginal likelihood or by using Monte Carlo (MC) methods to evaluate arithmetic or harmonic mean of a joint likelihood function. This study introduces a new MC method, i.e., thermodynamic integration, which has not been attempted in environmental modeling. Instead of using samples only from prior parameter space (as in arithmetic mean evaluation) or posterior parameter space (as in harmonic mean evaluation), the thermodynamicmore » integration method uses samples generated gradually from the prior to posterior parameter space. This is done through a path sampling that conducts Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation with different power coefficient values applied to the joint likelihood function. The thermodynamic integration method is evaluated using three analytical functions by comparing the method with two variants of the Laplace approximation method and three MC methods, including the nested sampling method that is recently introduced into environmental modeling. The thermodynamic integration method outperforms the other methods in terms of their accuracy, convergence, and consistency. The thermodynamic integration method is also applied to a synthetic case of groundwater modeling with four alternative models. The application shows that model probabilities obtained using the thermodynamic integration method improves predictive performance of Bayesian model averaging. As a result, the thermodynamic integration method is mathematically rigorous, and its MC implementation is computationally general for a wide range of environmental problems.« less

Urban stormwater capture curve using three-parameter mixed exponential probability density function and NRCS runoff curve number method.

PubMed

Kim, Sangdan; Han, Suhee

2010-01-01

Most related literature regarding designing urban non-point-source management systems assumes that precipitation event-depths follow the 1-parameter exponential probability density function to reduce the mathematical complexity of the derivation process. However, the method of expressing the rainfall is the most important factor for analyzing stormwater; thus, a better mathematical expression, which represents the probability distribution of rainfall depths, is suggested in this study. Also, the rainfall-runoff calculation procedure required for deriving a stormwater-capture curve is altered by the U.S. Natural Resources Conservation Service (Washington, D.C.) (NRCS) runoff curve number method to consider the nonlinearity of the rainfall-runoff relation and, at the same time, obtain a more verifiable and representative curve for design when applying it to urban drainage areas with complicated land-use characteristics, such as occurs in Korea. The result of developing the stormwater-capture curve from the rainfall data in Busan, Korea, confirms that the methodology suggested in this study provides a better solution than the pre-existing one.

Human joint motion estimation for electromyography (EMG)-based dynamic motion control.

PubMed

Zhang, Qin; Hosoda, Ryo; Venture, Gentiane

2013-01-01

This study aims to investigate a joint motion estimation method from Electromyography (EMG) signals during dynamic movement. In most EMG-based humanoid or prosthetics control systems, EMG features were directly or indirectly used to trigger intended motions. However, both physiological and nonphysiological factors can influence EMG characteristics during dynamic movements, resulting in subject-specific, non-stationary and crosstalk problems. Particularly, when motion velocity and/or joint torque are not constrained, joint motion estimation from EMG signals are more challenging. In this paper, we propose a joint motion estimation method based on muscle activation recorded from a pair of agonist and antagonist muscles of the joint. A linear state-space model with multi input single output is proposed to map the muscle activity to joint motion. An adaptive estimation method is proposed to train the model. The estimation performance is evaluated in performing a single elbow flexion-extension movement in two subjects. All the results in two subjects at two load levels indicate the feasibility and suitability of the proposed method in joint motion estimation. The estimation root-mean-square error is within 8.3% ∼ 10.6%, which is lower than that being reported in several previous studies. Moreover, this method is able to overcome subject-specific problem and compensate non-stationary EMG properties.

Detecting background changes in environments with dynamic foreground by separating probability distribution function mixtures using Pearson's method of moments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenkins, Colleen; Jordan, Jay; Carlson, Jeff

2007-02-01

This paper presents parameter estimation techniques useful for detecting background changes in a video sequence with extreme foreground activity. A specific application of interest is automated detection of the covert placement of threats (e.g., a briefcase bomb) inside crowded public facilities. We propose that a histogram of pixel intensity acquired from a fixed mounted camera over time for a series of images will be a mixture of two Gaussian functions: the foreground probability distribution function and background probability distribution function. We will use Pearson's Method of Moments to separate the two probability distribution functions. The background function can then be "remembered" and changes in the background can be detected. Subsequent comparisons of background estimates are used to detect changes. Changes are flagged to alert security forces to the presence and location of potential threats. Results are presented that indicate the significant potential for robust parameter estimation techniques as applied to video surveillance.

Most Probable Number Rapid Viability PCR Method to Detect Viable Spores of Bacillus anthracis in Swab Samples

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Letant, S E; Kane, S R; Murphy, G A

2008-05-30

This note presents a comparison of Most-Probable-Number Rapid Viability (MPN-RV) PCR and traditional culture methods for the quantification of Bacillus anthracis Sterne spores in macrofoam swabs generated by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) for a multi-center validation study aimed at testing environmental swab processing methods for recovery, detection, and quantification of viable B. anthracis spores from surfaces. Results show that spore numbers provided by the MPN RV-PCR method were in statistical agreement with the CDC conventional culture method for all three levels of spores tested (10{sup 4}, 10{sup 2}, and 10 spores) even in the presence ofmore » dirt. In addition to detecting low levels of spores in environmental conditions, the MPN RV-PCR method is specific, and compatible with automated high-throughput sample processing and analysis protocols.« less

A Method to Estimate the Probability That Any Individual Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Stroke Was Within Any Radius of Any Point

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huddleston, Lisa L.; Roeder, William P.; Merceret, Francis J.

2010-01-01

A new technique has been developed to estimate the probability that a nearby cloud-to-ground lightning stroke was within a specified radius of any point of interest. This process uses the bivariate Gaussian distribution of probability density provided by the current lightning location error ellipse for the most likely location of a lightning stroke and integrates it to determine the probability that the stroke is inside any specified radius of any location, even if that location is not centered on or even within the location error ellipse. This technique is adapted from a method of calculating the probability of debris collision with spacecraft. Such a technique is important in spaceport processing activities because it allows engineers to quantify the risk of induced current damage to critical electronics due to nearby lightning strokes. This technique was tested extensively and is now in use by space launch organizations at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force station.

A Method to Estimate the Probability that any Individual Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Stroke was Within any Radius of any Point

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huddleston, Lisa L.; Roeder, William P.; Merceret, Francis J.

2011-01-01

A new technique has been developed to estimate the probability that a nearby cloud to ground lightning stroke was within a specified radius of any point of interest. This process uses the bivariate Gaussian distribution of probability density provided by the current lightning location error ellipse for the most likely location of a lightning stroke and integrates it to determine the probability that the stroke is inside any specified radius of any location, even if that location is not centered on or even with the location error ellipse. This technique is adapted from a method of calculating the probability of debris collision with spacecraft. Such a technique is important in spaceport processing activities because it allows engineers to quantify the risk of induced current damage to critical electronics due to nearby lightning strokes. This technique was tested extensively and is now in use by space launch organizations at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. Future applications could include forensic meteorology.

A Method to Estimate the Probability that Any Individual Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Stroke was Within Any Radius of Any Point

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huddleston, Lisa; Roeder, WIlliam P.; Merceret, Francis J.

2011-01-01

A new technique has been developed to estimate the probability that a nearby cloud-to-ground lightning stroke was within a specified radius of any point of interest. This process uses the bivariate Gaussian distribution of probability density provided by the current lightning location error ellipse for the most likely location of a lightning stroke and integrates it to determine the probability that the stroke is inside any specified radius of any location, even if that location is not centered on or even within the location error ellipse. This technique is adapted from a method of calculating the probability of debris collision with spacecraft. Such a technique is important in spaceport processing activities because it allows engineers to quantify the risk of induced current damage to critical electronics due to nearby lightning strokes. This technique was tested extensively and is now in use by space launch organizations at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force station. Future applications could include forensic meteorology.

Adhesives: Test Method, Group Assignment, and Categorization Guide for High-Loading-Rate Applications Preparation and Testing of Single Lap Joints (Ver. 2.2, Unlimited)

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-04-01

Gerard Chaney, and Charles Pergantis Weapons and Materials Research Directorate, ARL Coatings, Corrosion, and Engineered Polymers Branch (CCEPB...SUBJECT TERMS single lap joint, adhesive, sample preparation, testing, database, metadata, material pedigree, ISO 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17...temperature/water immersion conditioning test for lap-joint test specimens using the test tubes and convection oven method

Cross Check of NOvA Oscillation Probabilities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Parke, Stephen J.; Messier, Mark D.

2018-01-12

In this note we perform a cross check of the programs used by NOvA to calculate the 3-flavor oscillation probabilities with a independent program using a different method. The comparison is performed at 6 significant figures and the agreement,more » $$|\\Delta P|/P$$ is better than $$10^{-5}$$, as good as can be expected with 6 significant figures. In addition, a simple and accurate alternative method to calculate the oscillation probabilities is outlined and compared in the L/E range and matter density relevant for the NOvA experiment.« less

SPACE PROPULSION SYSTEM PHASED-MISSION PROBABILITY ANALYSIS USING CONVENTIONAL PRA METHODS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Curtis Smith; James Knudsen

As part of a series of papers on the topic of advance probabilistic methods, a benchmark phased-mission problem has been suggested. This problem consists of modeling a space mission using an ion propulsion system, where the mission consists of seven mission phases. The mission requires that the propulsion operate for several phases, where the configuration changes as a function of phase. The ion propulsion system itself consists of five thruster assemblies and a single propellant supply, where each thruster assembly has one propulsion power unit and two ion engines. In this paper, we evaluate the probability of mission failure usingmore » the conventional methodology of event tree/fault tree analysis. The event tree and fault trees are developed and analyzed using Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE). While the benchmark problem is nominally a "dynamic" problem, in our analysis the mission phases are modeled in a single event tree to show the progression from one phase to the next. The propulsion system is modeled in fault trees to account for the operation; or in this case, the failure of the system. Specifically, the propulsion system is decomposed into each of the five thruster assemblies and fed into the appropriate N-out-of-M gate to evaluate mission failure. A separate fault tree for the propulsion system is developed to account for the different success criteria of each mission phase. Common-cause failure modeling is treated using traditional (i.e., parametrically) methods. As part of this paper, we discuss the overall results in addition to the positive and negative aspects of modeling dynamic situations with non-dynamic modeling techniques. One insight from the use of this conventional method for analyzing the benchmark problem is that it requires significant manual manipulation to the fault trees and how they are linked into the event tree. The conventional method also requires editing the resultant cut

Hydrogeologic Unit Flow Characterization Using Transition Probability Geostatistics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, N L; Walker, J R; Carle, S F

2003-11-21

This paper describes a technique for applying the transition probability geostatistics method for stochastic simulation to a MODFLOW model. Transition probability geostatistics has several advantages over traditional indicator kriging methods including a simpler and more intuitive framework for interpreting geologic relationships and the ability to simulate juxtapositional tendencies such as fining upwards sequences. The indicator arrays generated by the transition probability simulation are converted to layer elevation and thickness arrays for use with the new Hydrogeologic Unit Flow (HUF) package in MODFLOW 2000. This makes it possible to preserve complex heterogeneity while using reasonably sized grids. An application of themore » technique involving probabilistic capture zone delineation for the Aberjona Aquifer in Woburn, Ma. is included.« less

Experimental joint weak measurement on a photon pair as a probe of Hardy's paradox.

PubMed

Lundeen, J S; Steinberg, A M

2009-01-16

It has been proposed that the ability to perform joint weak measurements on postselected systems would allow us to study quantum paradoxes. These measurements can investigate the history of those particles that contribute to the paradoxical outcome. Here we experimentally perform weak measurements of joint (i.e., nonlocal) observables. In an implementation of Hardy's paradox, we weakly measure the locations of two photons, the subject of the conflicting statements behind the paradox. Remarkably, the resulting weak probabilities verify all of these statements but, at the same time, resolve the paradox.

Statistical inference of the generation probability of T-cell receptors from sequence repertoires.

PubMed

Murugan, Anand; Mora, Thierry; Walczak, Aleksandra M; Callan, Curtis G

2012-10-02

Stochastic rearrangement of germline V-, D-, and J-genes to create variable coding sequence for certain cell surface receptors is at the origin of immune system diversity. This process, known as "VDJ recombination", is implemented via a series of stochastic molecular events involving gene choices and random nucleotide insertions between, and deletions from, genes. We use large sequence repertoires of the variable CDR3 region of human CD4+ T-cell receptor beta chains to infer the statistical properties of these basic biochemical events. Because any given CDR3 sequence can be produced in multiple ways, the probability distribution of hidden recombination events cannot be inferred directly from the observed sequences; we therefore develop a maximum likelihood inference method to achieve this end. To separate the properties of the molecular rearrangement mechanism from the effects of selection, we focus on nonproductive CDR3 sequences in T-cell DNA. We infer the joint distribution of the various generative events that occur when a new T-cell receptor gene is created. We find a rich picture of correlation (and absence thereof), providing insight into the molecular mechanisms involved. The generative event statistics are consistent between individuals, suggesting a universal biochemical process. Our probabilistic model predicts the generation probability of any specific CDR3 sequence by the primitive recombination process, allowing us to quantify the potential diversity of the T-cell repertoire and to understand why some sequences are shared between individuals. We argue that the use of formal statistical inference methods, of the kind presented in this paper, will be essential for quantitative understanding of the generation and evolution of diversity in the adaptive immune system.

Improving the Rank Precision of Population Health Measures for Small Areas with Longitudinal and Joint Outcome Models

PubMed Central

Athens, Jessica K.; Remington, Patrick L.; Gangnon, Ronald E.

2015-01-01

Objectives The University of Wisconsin Population Health Institute has published the County Health Rankings since 2010. These rankings use population-based data to highlight health outcomes and the multiple determinants of these outcomes and to encourage in-depth health assessment for all United States counties. A significant methodological limitation, however, is the uncertainty of rank estimates, particularly for small counties. To address this challenge, we explore the use of longitudinal and pooled outcome data in hierarchical Bayesian models to generate county ranks with greater precision. Methods In our models we used pooled outcome data for three measure groups: (1) Poor physical and poor mental health days; (2) percent of births with low birth weight and fair or poor health prevalence; and (3) age-specific mortality rates for nine age groups. We used the fixed and random effects components of these models to generate posterior samples of rates for each measure. We also used time-series data in longitudinal random effects models for age-specific mortality. Based on the posterior samples from these models, we estimate ranks and rank quartiles for each measure, as well as the probability of a county ranking in its assigned quartile. Rank quartile probabilities for univariate, joint outcome, and/or longitudinal models were compared to assess improvements in rank precision. Results The joint outcome model for poor physical and poor mental health days resulted in improved rank precision, as did the longitudinal model for age-specific mortality rates. Rank precision for low birth weight births and fair/poor health prevalence based on the univariate and joint outcome models were equivalent. Conclusion Incorporating longitudinal or pooled outcome data may improve rank certainty, depending on characteristics of the measures selected. For measures with different determinants, joint modeling neither improved nor degraded rank precision. This approach suggests a simple