Sample records for kajian sifat serap
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Dalton, Melinda S.; Jones, Sonya A.
2010-01-01
expanded to address climate change-related impacts on all Department of the Interior (DOI) resources. The NCCWSC will establish a network of eight DOI Regional Climate Science Centers (RCSCs) that will work with a variety of partners to provide natural resource managers with tools and information that will help them anticipate and adapt conservation planning and design for projected climate change. The forecasting products produced by the RCSCs will aid fish, wildlife, and land managers in designing suitable adaptive management approaches for their programs. The DOI also is developing Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) as science and conservation action partnerships at subregional scales. The USGS is working with the Southeast Region of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) to develop science collaboration between the future Southeast RCSC and future LCCs. The NCCWSC Southeast Regional Assessment Project (SERAP) will begin to develop regional downscaled climate models, land cover change models, regional ecological models, regional watershed models, and other science tools. Models and data produced by SERAP will be used in a collaborative process between the USGS, the FWS (LCCs), State and federal partners, nongovernmental organizations, and academia to produce science at appropriate scales to answer resource management questions. The SERAP will produce an assessment of climate change, and impacts on land cover, ecosystems, and priority species in the region. The predictive tools developed by the SERAP project team will allow end users to better understand potential impacts of climate change and sea level rise on terrestrial and aquatic populations in the Southeastern United States. The SERAP capitalizes on the integration of five existing projects: (1) the Multi-State Conservation Grants Program project "Designing Sustainable Landscapes," (2) the USGS multidisciplinary Science Thrust project "Water Availability for Ecological Needs," (3) the USGS Southeast Pilot
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Effectiveness of a clinical practice intervention in early rheumatoid arthritis.
Descalzo, Miguel Ángel; Carbonell, Jordi; González-Álvaro, Isidoro; Sanmartí, Raimon; Balsa, Alejandro; Hernandez-Barrera, Valentín; Román-Ivorra, José Andrés; Ivorra-Cortés, José; Lisbona, Pilar; Alperi, Mercedes; Jiménez-Garcia, Rodrigo; Carmona, Loreto
2012-03-01
To compare the outcome of early rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients in a country where early clinics were established versus the outcome of patients in nonprotocolized clinics. We compared 2 multicenter cohorts: an RA cohort derived from an early arthritis registry set in 36 reference hospitals in which a specific intervention was established (Evaluation of a Model for Arthritis Care in Spain [SERAP]), and a historical control cohort of patients with early RA attending 34 rheumatology departments (Prognosis in Rheumatoid Arthritis [PROAR] cohort). Effectiveness was tested by comparing the change in the Disease Activity Score in 28 joints (DAS28), the change in the Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ), and the change in the Sharp/van der Heijde radiologic score using marginal structural models. A total of 161 early RA patients were recruited in the PROAR cohort and 447 in the SERAP cohort. Being a SERAP patient was inversely correlated with activity, resulting in a decrease of -0.24 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] -0.39, -0.08) units in the population average of the DAS28 after adjustment was made. Moreover, intervention may be seen as a protective factor of radiologic damage, with a decrease of -0.05 (95% CI -0.09, -0.01) units in the logarithm of the total Sharp/van der Heijde score. On the other hand, a decrease in functional impairment was detected, but intervention was not statistically associated with HAQ changes. Preventing major radiographic progression in a 2-year term inside structured and organized special programs for the management of disease, such as early arthritis clinics, are effective compared to nonprotocolized referrals, treatment, and followup. Copyright © 2012 by the American College of Rheumatology.
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Regional climate change-Science in the Southeast
Jones, Sonya A.
2010-01-01
Resource managers are at the forefront of a new era of management. They must consider the potential impacts of climate change on the Nation's resources and proactively develop strategies for dealing with those impacts on plants, animals, and ecosystems. This requires rigorous, scientific understanding of environmental change. The role of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in this effort is to analyze climate-change data and develop tools for assessing how changing conditions are likely to impact resources. This information will assist Federal, State, local, and tribal partners manage resources strategically. The 2008 Omnibus Budget Act and Secretarial Order 3289 established a new network of eight Department of Interior Regional Climate Science Centers to provide technical support for resource managers. The Southeast Regional Assessment Project (SERAP) is the first regional assessment to be funded by the USGS National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (http://nccw.usgs.gov/). The USGS is working closely with the developing Department of Interior Landscape Conservation Cooperatives to ensure that the project will meet the needs of resource managers in the Southeast. In addition, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service is providing resources to the SERAP to expand the scope of the project.
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Elliott, Caroline M.; Jacobson, Robert B.; Freeman, Mary C.
2014-01-01
A stream classification and associated datasets were developed for the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin to support biological modeling of species response to climate change in the southeastern United States. The U.S. Geological Survey and the Department of the Interior’s National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center established the Southeast Regional Assessment Project (SERAP) which used downscaled general circulation models to develop landscape-scale assessments of climate change and subsequent effects on land cover, ecosystems, and priority species in the southeastern United States. The SERAP aquatic and hydrologic dynamics modeling efforts involve multiscale watershed hydrology, stream-temperature, and fish-occupancy models, which all are based on the same stream network. Models were developed for the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin and subbasins in Alabama, Florida, and Georgia, and for the Upper Roanoke River Basin in Virginia. The stream network was used as the spatial scheme through which information was shared across the various models within SERAP. Because these models operate at different scales, coordinated pair versions of the network were delineated, characterized, and parameterized for coarse- and fine-scale hydrologic and biologic modeling. The stream network used for the SERAP aquatic models was extracted from a 30-meter (m) scale digital elevation model (DEM) using standard topographic analysis of flow accumulation. At the finer scale, reaches were delineated to represent lengths of stream channel with fairly homogenous physical characteristics (mean reach length = 350 m). Every reach in the network is designated with geomorphic attributes including upstream drainage basin area, channel gradient, channel width, valley width, Strahler and Shreve stream order, stream power, and measures of stream confinement. The reach network was aggregated from tributary junction to tributary junction to define segments for the
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lafontaine, J.; Hay, L.; Viger, R.; Markstrom, S. L.
2010-12-01
In order to help environmental resource managers assess potential effects of climate change on ecosystems, the Southeast Regional Assessment Project (SERAP) began in 2009. One component of the SERAP is development and calibration of a set of multi-resolution hydrologic models of the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) River Basin. The ACF River Basin is home to multiple fish and wildlife species of conservation concern, is regionally important for water supply, and has been a recent focus of complementary environmental and climate-change research. Hydrologic models of varying spatial extents and resolutions are required to address varied local to regional water-resource management questions as required by the scope and limits of potential management actions. These models were developed using the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). The coarse-resolution model for the ACF Basin has a contributing area of approximately 19,200 mi2 with the model outlet located at the USGS streamflow gage on the Apalachicola River near Sumatra, Florida. Six fine-resolution PRMS models ranging in size from 153 mi2 to 1,040 mi2 are nested within the coarse-scale model, and have been developed for the following basins: upper Chattahoochee, Chestatee, and Chipola Rivers, Ichawaynochaway, Potato, and Spring Creeks. All of the models simulate basin hydrology using a daily time-step, measured climate data, and basin characteristics such as land cover and topography. Measured streamflow data are used to calibrate and evaluate computed basin hydrology. Land cover projections will be used in conjunction with downscaled Global Climate Model results to project future hydrologic conditions for this set of models.
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Science Goals of the U.S. Department of the Interior Southeast Climate Science Center
Dalton, Melinda S.
2011-01-01
In 2011, the U.S. Department of the Interior Southeast Climate Science Center (CSC) finalized the first draft of its goals for research needed to address the needs of natural and cultural partners for climate science in the Southeastern United States. The science themes described in this draft plan were established to address the information needs of ecoregion conservation partnerships, such as the Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) and other regional conservation-science and resource-management partners. These themes were developed using priorities defined by partners and stakeholders in the Southeast and on a large-scale, multidisciplinary project-the Southeast Regional Assessment Project (SERAP)-developed in concert with those partners. Science products developed under these themes will provide models of potential future conditions, assessments of likely impacts, and tools that can be used to inform the conservation management decisions of LCCs and other partners. This information will be critical as managers try to anticipate and adapt to climate change. Resource managers in the Southeast are requesting this type of information, in many cases as a result of observed climate change effects. The Southeast CSC draft science plan identifies six science themes and frames the activities (tasks, with examples of recommended near-term work for each task included herein) related to each theme that are needed to achieve the objectives of the Southeast CSC.
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Model Independence in Downscaled Climate Projections: a Case Study in the Southeast United States
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gray, G. M. E.; Boyles, R.
2016-12-01
Downscaled climate projections are used to deduce how the climate will change in future decades at local and regional scales. It is important to use multiple models to characterize part of the future uncertainty given the impact on adaptation decision making. This is traditionally employed through an equally-weighted ensemble of multiple GCMs downscaled using one technique. Newer practices include several downscaling techniques in an effort to increase the ensemble's representation of future uncertainty. However, this practice may be adding statistically dependent models to the ensemble. Previous research has shown a dependence problem in the GCM ensemble in multiple generations, but has not been shown in the downscaled ensemble. In this case study, seven downscaled climate projections on the daily time scale are considered: CLAREnCE10, SERAP, BCCA (CMIP5 and CMIP3 versions), Hostetler, CCR, and MACA-LIVNEH. These data represent 83 ensemble members, 44 GCMs, and two generations of GCMs. Baseline periods are compared against the University of Idaho's METDATA gridded observation dataset. Hierarchical agglomerative clustering is applied to the correlated errors to determine dependent clusters. Redundant GCMs across different downscaling techniques show the most dependence, while smaller dependence signals are detected within downscaling datasets and across generations of GCMs. These results indicate that using additional downscaled projections to increase the ensemble size must be done with care to avoid redundant GCMs and the process of downscaling may increase the dependence of those downscaled GCMs. Climate model generation does not appear dissimilar enough to be treated as two separate statistical populations for ensemble building at the local and regional scales.
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Lubans, David R; Smith, Jordan J; Peralta, Louisa R; Plotnikoff, Ronald C; Okely, Anthony D; Salmon, Jo; Eather, Narelle; Dewar, Deborah L; Kennedy, Sarah; Lonsdale, Chris; Hilland, Toni A; Estabrooks, Paul; Finn, Tara L; Pollock, Emma; Morgan, Philip J
2016-01-01
Introduction Physical inactivity has been described as a global pandemic. Interventions aimed at developing skills in lifelong physical activities may provide the foundation for an active lifestyle into adulthood. In general, school-based physical activity interventions targeting adolescents have produced modest results and few have been designed to be ‘scaled-up’ and disseminated. This study aims to: (1) assess the effectiveness of two physical activity promotion programmes (ie, NEAT and ATLAS) that have been modified for scalability; and (2) evaluate the dissemination of these programmes throughout government funded secondary schools. Methods and analysis The study will be conducted in two phases. In the first phase (cluster randomised controlled trial), 16 schools will be randomly allocated to the intervention or a usual care control condition. In the second phase, the Reach, Effectiveness, Adoption, Implementation and Maintenance (Re-AIM) framework will be used to guide the design and evaluation of programme dissemination throughout New South Wales (NSW), Australia. In both phases, teachers will be trained to deliver the NEAT and ATLAS programmes, which will include: (1) interactive student seminars; (2) structured physical activity programmes; (3) lunch-time fitness sessions; and (4) web-based smartphone apps. In the cluster RCT, study outcomes will be assessed at baseline, 6 months (primary end point) and 12-months. Muscular fitness will be the primary outcome and secondary outcomes will include: objectively measured body composition, cardiorespiratory fitness, flexibility, resistance training skill competency, physical activity, self-reported recreational screen-time, sleep, sugar-sweetened beverage and junk food snack consumption, self-esteem and well-being. Ethics and dissemination This study has received approval from the University of Newcastle (H-2014-0312) and the NSW Department of Education (SERAP: 2012121) human research ethics committees. This
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Lubans, David R; Smith, Jordan J; Peralta, Louisa R; Plotnikoff, Ronald C; Okely, Anthony D; Salmon, Jo; Eather, Narelle; Dewar, Deborah L; Kennedy, Sarah; Lonsdale, Chris; Hilland, Toni A; Estabrooks, Paul; Finn, Tara L; Pollock, Emma; Morgan, Philip J
2016-06-27
Physical inactivity has been described as a global pandemic. Interventions aimed at developing skills in lifelong physical activities may provide the foundation for an active lifestyle into adulthood. In general, school-based physical activity interventions targeting adolescents have produced modest results and few have been designed to be 'scaled-up' and disseminated. This study aims to: (1) assess the effectiveness of two physical activity promotion programmes (ie, NEAT and ATLAS) that have been modified for scalability; and (2) evaluate the dissemination of these programmes throughout government funded secondary schools. The study will be conducted in two phases. In the first phase (cluster randomised controlled trial), 16 schools will be randomly allocated to the intervention or a usual care control condition. In the second phase, the Reach, Effectiveness, Adoption, Implementation and Maintenance (Re-AIM) framework will be used to guide the design and evaluation of programme dissemination throughout New South Wales (NSW), Australia. In both phases, teachers will be trained to deliver the NEAT and ATLAS programmes, which will include: (1) interactive student seminars; (2) structured physical activity programmes; (3) lunch-time fitness sessions; and (4) web-based smartphone apps. In the cluster RCT, study outcomes will be assessed at baseline, 6 months (primary end point) and 12-months. Muscular fitness will be the primary outcome and secondary outcomes will include: objectively measured body composition, cardiorespiratory fitness, flexibility, resistance training skill competency, physical activity, self-reported recreational screen-time, sleep, sugar-sweetened beverage and junk food snack consumption, self-esteem and well-being. This study has received approval from the University of Newcastle (H-2014-0312) and the NSW Department of Education (SERAP: 2012121) human research ethics committees. This study is funded by the Australian Research Council (FT