Space-based observatories providing key data for climate change applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lecomte, J.; Juillet, J. J.

2016-12-01

The Sentinel-1 & 3 mission are part of the Copernicus program, previously known as GMES (Global Monitoring for Environment and Security), whose overall objective is to support Europe's goals regarding sustainable development and global governance of the environment by providing timely and quality data, information, services and knowledge. This European Earth Observation program is led by the European Commission and the space infrastructure is developed under the European Space Agency leadership. Many services will be developed through the Copernicus program among different thematic areas. The climate change is one of this thematic area and the Sentinel-1 & 3 satellites will provide key space-based observations in this area. The Sentinel-1 mission is based on a constellation of 2 identical satellites each one embarking C-SAR Instrument and provides capability for continuous radar mapping of the Earth with enhanced revisit frequency, coverage, timeliness and reliability for operational services and applications requiring long time series. In particular, Sentinel 1 provides all-weather, day-and-night estimates of soil moisture, wind speed and direction, sea ice, continental ice sheets and glaciers. The Sentinel-3 mission will mainly be devoted to the provision of Ocean observation data in routine, long term (20 years of operations) and continuous fashion with a consistent quality and a very high level of availability. Among these data, very accurate surface temperatures and topography measurements will be provided and will constitute key indicators, once ingested in climate change models, for identifying climate drivers and expected climate impacts. The paper will briefly recall the satellite architectures, their main characteristics and performance. The inflight performance and key features of their images or data of the 3 satellites namely Sentinel 1A, 1B and 3A will be reviewed to demonstrate the quality and high scientific potential of the data as well as their

Consensus achievement of leadership, organisational and individual factors that influence safety climate: Implications for nursing management.

PubMed

Fischer, Shelly A; Jones, Jacqueline; Verran, Joyce A

2018-01-01

To validate a framework of factors that influence the relationship of transformational leadership and safety climate, and to enable testing of safety chain factors by generating hypotheses regarding their mediating and moderating effects. Understanding the patient safety chain and mechanisms by which leaders affect a strong climate of safety is essential to transformational leadership practice, education, and research. A systematic review of leadership and safety literature was used to develop an organising framework of factors proposed to influence the climate of safety. A panel of 25 international experts in leadership and safety engaged a three-round modified Delphi study with Likert-scored surveys. Eighty per cent of participating experts from six countries were retained to the final survey round. Consensus (>66% agreement) was achieved on 40 factors believed to influence safety climate in the acute care setting. Consensus regarding specific factors that play important roles in an organisation's climate of safety can be reached. Generally, the demonstration of leadership commitment to safety is key to cultivating a culture of patient safety. Transformational nurse leaders should consider and employ all three categories of factors in daily leadership activities and decision-making to drive a strong climate of patient safety. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Development of key indicators to quantify the health impacts of climate change on Canadians.

PubMed

Cheng, June J; Berry, Peter

2013-10-01

This study aimed at developing a list of key human health indicators for quantifying the health impacts of climate change in Canada. A literature review was conducted in OVID Medline to identify health morbidity and mortality indicators currently used to quantify climate change impacts. Public health frameworks and other studies of climate change indicators were reviewed to identify criteria with which to evaluate the list of proposed key indicators and a rating scale was developed. Total scores for each indicator were calculated based on the rating scale. A total of 77 health indicators were identified from the literature. After evaluation using the chosen criteria, 8 indicators were identified as the best for use. They include excess daily all-cause mortality due to heat, premature deaths due to air pollution (ozone and particulate matter 2.5), preventable deaths from climate change, disability-adjusted life years lost from climate change, daily all-cause mortality, daily non-accidental mortality, West Nile Disease incidence, and Lyme borreliosis incidence. There is need for further data and research related to health effect quantification in the area of climate change.

Climate change scenarios and key climate indices in the Swiss Alpine region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zubler, Elias; Croci-Maspoli, Mischa; Frei, Christoph; Liniger, Mark; Scherrer, Simon; Appenzeller, Christof

2013-04-01

For climate adaption and to support climate mitigation policy it is of outermost importance to demonstrate the consequences of climate change on a local level and in user oriented quantities. Here, a framework is presented to apply the Swiss national climate change scenarios CH2011 to climate indices with direct relevance to applications, such as tourism, transportation, agriculture and health. This framework provides results on a high spatial and temporal resolution and can also be applied in mountainous regions such as the Alps. Results are shown for some key indices, such as the number of summer days and tropical nights, growing season length, number of frost days, heating and cooling degree days, and the number of days with fresh snow. Particular focus is given to changes in the vertical distribution for the future periods 2020-2049, 2045-2074 and 2070-2099 relative to the reference period 1980-2009 for the A1B, A2 and RCP3PD scenario. The number of days with fresh snow is approximated using a combination of temperature and precipitation as proxies. Some findings for the latest scenario period are: (1) a doubling of the number of summer days by the end of the century under the business-as-usual scenario A2, (2) tropical nights appear above 1500 m asl, (3) the number of frost days may be reduced by more than 3 months at altitudes higher than 2500 m, (4) an overall reduction of heating degree days of about 30% by the end of the century, but on the other hand an increase in cooling degree days in warm seasons, and (5) the number of days with fresh snow tends to go towards zero at low altitudes. In winter, there is little change in snowfall above 2000 m asl (roughly -3 days) in all scenarios. The largest impact on snowfall is found along the Northern Alpine flank and the Jura (-10 days or roughly -50% in A1B for the winter season). It is also highlighted that the future projections for all indices strongly depend on the chosen scenario and on model uncertainty

Assessing the combined effects of climatic factors on spring wheat phenophase and grain yield in Inner Mongolia, China

PubMed Central

Pu, Feiyu; Li, Yunpeng; Xu, Jingwen; Li, Ning; Zhang, Yi; Guo, Jianping; Pan, Zhihua

2017-01-01

Understanding the regional relationships between climate change and crop production will benefit strategic decisions for future agricultural adaptation in China. In this study, the combined effects of climatic factors on spring wheat phenophase and grain yield over the past three decades in Inner Mongolia, China, were explored based on the daily climate variables from 1981–2014 and detailed observed data of spring wheat from 1981–2014. Inner Mongolia was divided into three different climate type regions, the eastern, central and western regions. The data were gathered from 10 representative agricultural meteorological experimental stations in Inner Mongolia and analysed with the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) model. First, the performance of the APSIM model in the spring wheat planting areas of Inner Mongolia was tested. Then, the key climatic factors limiting the phenophases and yield of spring wheat were identified. Finally, the responses of spring wheat phenophases and yield to climate change were further explored regionally. Our results revealed a general yield reduction of spring wheat in response to the pronounced climate warming from 1981 to 2014, with an average of 3564 kg·ha-1. The regional differences in yields were significant. The maximum potential yield of spring wheat was found in the western region. However, the minimum potential yield was found in the middle region. The air temperature and soil surface temperature were the optimum climatic factors that affected the key phenophases of spring wheat in Inner Mongolia. The influence of the average maximum temperature on the key phenophases of spring wheat was greater than the average minimum temperature, followed by the relative humidity and solar radiation. The most insensitive climatic factors were precipitation, wind speed and reference crop evapotranspiration. As for the yield of spring wheat, temperature, solar radiation and air relative humidity were major meteorological

Assessing the combined effects of climatic factors on spring wheat phenophase and grain yield in Inner Mongolia, China.

PubMed

Zhao, Junfang; Pu, Feiyu; Li, Yunpeng; Xu, Jingwen; Li, Ning; Zhang, Yi; Guo, Jianping; Pan, Zhihua

2017-01-01

Understanding the regional relationships between climate change and crop production will benefit strategic decisions for future agricultural adaptation in China. In this study, the combined effects of climatic factors on spring wheat phenophase and grain yield over the past three decades in Inner Mongolia, China, were explored based on the daily climate variables from 1981-2014 and detailed observed data of spring wheat from 1981-2014. Inner Mongolia was divided into three different climate type regions, the eastern, central and western regions. The data were gathered from 10 representative agricultural meteorological experimental stations in Inner Mongolia and analysed with the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) model. First, the performance of the APSIM model in the spring wheat planting areas of Inner Mongolia was tested. Then, the key climatic factors limiting the phenophases and yield of spring wheat were identified. Finally, the responses of spring wheat phenophases and yield to climate change were further explored regionally. Our results revealed a general yield reduction of spring wheat in response to the pronounced climate warming from 1981 to 2014, with an average of 3564 kg·ha-1. The regional differences in yields were significant. The maximum potential yield of spring wheat was found in the western region. However, the minimum potential yield was found in the middle region. The air temperature and soil surface temperature were the optimum climatic factors that affected the key phenophases of spring wheat in Inner Mongolia. The influence of the average maximum temperature on the key phenophases of spring wheat was greater than the average minimum temperature, followed by the relative humidity and solar radiation. The most insensitive climatic factors were precipitation, wind speed and reference crop evapotranspiration. As for the yield of spring wheat, temperature, solar radiation and air relative humidity were major meteorological

The Practical Integration of Action Research into Building Climate Literacy and Partnership with Key Influentials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Estrada, M.

2015-12-01

Climate Education Partners (CEP) has been using an action research approach to build climate literacy and partnership with key influential (KI) leaders in the San Diego community. After identifying 6 key sectors that either (a) could reduce green house gas emissions and adapt to impacts, or (b) would be highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, we conducted 89 interviews with KIs from the San Diego region -- including elected officials, academics, laborers, and representatives from local businesses, non-profits, ethnic and cultural communities, faith-based groups, and special interest groups -- to assess their science knowledge and opinions about climate change and the impacts of climate change. Other questions asked were about KIs' personal efficacy, identity, values and engagement in pro-environmental behaviors related to climate change. The results of the interviews contributed to CEP's action research approach in two ways: 1) it provided critical data regarding which leaders wanted further engagement with CEP and what that engagement should entail (e.g., being a connector to other leaders, a spokesperson, or a participant in future educational activities), and 2) it provided key information about the extent to which "knowledge deficit" is related to use of climate change knowledge to inform engagement in mitigation and adaptive behaviors. Practically, the results were used to create a database that is being used to inform the contact and education of KIs. We were able to show, consistent with previous research and identity theory, that liberal leaders were more likely than conservatives to believe in, feel concern for, and be knowledgeable about climate change. However, engagement in mitigation behaviors- specifically making decisions that would reduce electricity, gas, or water use- were similar for both groups. These results are being used to create resources and direct climate education activities going forward.

Multilevel Factor Structure and Concurrent Validity of the Teacher Version of the Authoritative School Climate Survey.

PubMed

Huang, Francis L; Cornell, Dewey G; Konold, Timothy; Meyer, Joseph P; Lacey, Anna; Nekvasil, Erin K; Heilbrun, Anna; Shukla, Kathan D

2015-12-01

School climate is well recognized as an important influence on student behavior and adjustment to school, but there is a need for theory-guided measures that make use of teacher perspectives. Authoritative school climate theory hypothesizes that a positive school climate is characterized by high levels of disciplinary structure and student support. A teacher version of the Authoritative School Climate Survey (ASCS) was administered to a statewide sample of 9099 7th- and 8th-grade teachers from 366 schools. The study used exploratory and multilevel confirmatory factor analyses (MCFA) that accounted for the nested data structure and allowed for the modeling of the factor structures at 2 levels. Multilevel confirmatory factor analyses conducted on both an exploratory (N = 4422) and a confirmatory sample (N = 4677) showed good support for the factor structures investigated. Factor correlations at 2 levels indicated that schools with greater levels of disciplinary structure and student support had higher student engagement, less teasing and bullying, and lower student aggression toward teachers. The teacher version of the ASCS can be used to assess 2 key domains of school climate and associated measures of student engagement and aggression toward peers and teachers. © 2015, American School Health Association.

Key factors of low carbon development strategy for sustainable transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thaveewatanaseth, K.; Limjirakan, S.

2018-02-01

Cities become more vulnerable to climate change impacts causing by urbanization, economic growth, increasing of energy consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. People who live in the cities have already been affected from the impacts in terms of socioeconomic and environmental aspects. Sustainable transport plays the key role in CO2 mitigation and contributes positive impacts on sustainable development for the cities. Several studies in megacities both in developed and developing countries support that mass transit system is an important transportation mode in CO2 mitigation and sustainable transport development. This paper aims to study key factors of low carbon development strategy for sustainable transport. The Bangkok Mass Rapid Transit System (MRT) located in Bangkok was the study area. Data collection was using semi-structured in-depth interview protocol with thirty respondents consisting of six groups i.e. governmental agencies, the MRT operators, consulting companies, international organizations, non-profit organizations, and experts. The research findings highlighted the major factors and supplemental elements composing of institution and technical capacity, institutional framework, policy setting and process, and plan of implementation that would support more effective strategic process for low carbon development strategy (LCDS) for sustainable transport. The study would highly recommend on readiness of institution and technical capacities, stakeholder mapping, high-level decision- makers participation, and a clear direction of the governmental policies that are strongly needed in achieving the sustainable transport.

Key Findings from the U.S.-India Partnership for Climate Resilience Workshop on Development and Application of Downscaling Climate Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kunkel, K.; Dissen, J.; Easterling, D. R.; Kulkarni, A.; Akhtar, F. H.; Hayhoe, K.; Stoner, A. M. K.; Swaminathan, R.; Thrasher, B. L.

2017-12-01

s part of the Department of State U.S.-India Partnership for Climate Resilience (PCR), scientists from NOAA NCEI, CICS-NC, Texas Tech University (TTU), Stanford University (SU), and the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) held a workshop at IITM in Pune, India during 7-9 March 2017 on the development, techniques and applications of downscaled climate projections. Workshop participants from TTU, SU, and IITM presented state-of-the-art climate downscaling techniques using the ARRM method, NASA NEX climate products, CORDEX-South Asia and analysis tools for resilience planning and sustainable development. PCR collaborators in attendance included Indian practitioners, researchers and other NGO including the WRI Partnership for Resilience and Preparedness (PREP), The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI), and NIH. The scientific techniques were provided to workshop participants in a software package written in R by TTU scientists and several sessions were devoted to hands-on experience with the software package. The workshop further examined case studies on the use of downscaled climate data for decision making in a range of sectors, including human health, agriculture, and water resources management as well as to inform the development of the India State Action Plans. This talk will discuss key outcomes including information needs for downscaling climate projections, importance of QA/QC of the data, key findings from select case studies, and the importance of collaborations and partnerships to apply downscaling projections to help inform the development of the India State Action Plans.

Are Atmospheric Updrafts a Key to Unlocking Climate Forcing and Sensitivity?

DOE PAGES

Donner, Leo J.; O'Brien, Travis A.; Rieger, Daniel; ...

2016-06-08

Both climate forcing and climate sensitivity persist as stubborn uncertainties limiting the extent to which climate models can provide actionable scientific scenarios for climate change. A key, explicit control on cloud-aerosol interactions, the largest uncertainty in climate forcing, is the vertical velocity of cloud-scale updrafts. Model-based studies of climate sensitivity indicate that convective entrainment, which is closely related to updraft speeds, is an important control on climate sensitivity. Updraft vertical velocities also drive many physical processes essential to numerical weather prediction. Vertical velocities and their role in atmospheric physical processes have been given very limited attention in models for climatemore » and numerical weather prediction. The relevant physical scales range down to tens of meters and are thus frequently sub-grid and require parameterization. Many state-of-science convection parameterizations provide mass fluxes without specifying vertical velocities, and parameterizations which do provide vertical velocities have been subject to limited evaluation against what have until recently been scant observations. Atmospheric observations imply that the distribution of vertical velocities depends on the areas over which the vertical velocities are averaged. Distributions of vertical velocities in climate models may capture this behavior, but it has not been accounted for when parameterizing cloud and precipitation processes in current models. New observations of convective vertical velocities offer a potentially promising path toward developing process-level cloud models and parameterizations for climate and numerical weather prediction. Taking account of scale-dependence of resolved vertical velocities offers a path to matching cloud-scale physical processes and their driving dynamics more realistically, with a prospect of reduced uncertainty in both climate forcing and sensitivity.« less

Are atmospheric updrafts a key to unlocking climate forcing and sensitivity?

DOE PAGES

Donner, Leo J.; O'Brien, Travis A.; Rieger, Daniel; ...

2016-10-20

Both climate forcing and climate sensitivity persist as stubborn uncertainties limiting the extent to which climate models can provide actionable scientific scenarios for climate change. A key, explicit control on cloud–aerosol interactions, the largest uncertainty in climate forcing, is the vertical velocity of cloud-scale updrafts. Model-based studies of climate sensitivity indicate that convective entrainment, which is closely related to updraft speeds, is an important control on climate sensitivity. Updraft vertical velocities also drive many physical processes essential to numerical weather prediction. Vertical velocities and their role in atmospheric physical processes have been given very limited attention in models for climatemore » and numerical weather prediction. The relevant physical scales range down to tens of meters and are thus frequently sub-grid and require parameterization. Many state-of-science convection parameterizations provide mass fluxes without specifying Vertical velocities and their role in atmospheric physical processes have been given very limited attention in models for climate and numerical weather prediction. The relevant physical scales range down to tens of meters and are thus frequently sub-grid and require parameterization. Many state-of-science convection parameterizations provide mass fluxes without specifying vs in climate models may capture this behavior, but it has not been accounted for when parameterizing cloud and precipitation processes in current models. New observations of convective vertical velocities offer a potentially promising path toward developing process-level cloud models and parameterizations for climate and numerical weather prediction. Taking account of the scale dependence of resolved vertical velocities offers a path to matching cloud-scale physical processes and their driving dynamics more realistically, with a prospect of reduced uncertainty in both climate forcing and sensitivity.« less

Are atmospheric updrafts a key to unlocking climate forcing and sensitivity?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Donner, Leo J.; O'Brien, Travis A.; Rieger, Daniel

Both climate forcing and climate sensitivity persist as stubborn uncertainties limiting the extent to which climate models can provide actionable scientific scenarios for climate change. A key, explicit control on cloud–aerosol interactions, the largest uncertainty in climate forcing, is the vertical velocity of cloud-scale updrafts. Model-based studies of climate sensitivity indicate that convective entrainment, which is closely related to updraft speeds, is an important control on climate sensitivity. Updraft vertical velocities also drive many physical processes essential to numerical weather prediction. Vertical velocities and their role in atmospheric physical processes have been given very limited attention in models for climatemore » and numerical weather prediction. The relevant physical scales range down to tens of meters and are thus frequently sub-grid and require parameterization. Many state-of-science convection parameterizations provide mass fluxes without specifying Vertical velocities and their role in atmospheric physical processes have been given very limited attention in models for climate and numerical weather prediction. The relevant physical scales range down to tens of meters and are thus frequently sub-grid and require parameterization. Many state-of-science convection parameterizations provide mass fluxes without specifying vs in climate models may capture this behavior, but it has not been accounted for when parameterizing cloud and precipitation processes in current models. New observations of convective vertical velocities offer a potentially promising path toward developing process-level cloud models and parameterizations for climate and numerical weather prediction. Taking account of the scale dependence of resolved vertical velocities offers a path to matching cloud-scale physical processes and their driving dynamics more realistically, with a prospect of reduced uncertainty in both climate forcing and sensitivity.« less

Facilitators to promoting health in schools: is school health climate the key?

PubMed

Lucarelli, Jennifer F; Alaimo, Katherine; Mang, Ellen; Martin, Caroline; Miles, Richard; Bailey, Deborah; Kelleher, Deanne K; Drzal, Nicholas B; Liu, Hui

2014-02-01

Schools can promote healthy eating in adolescents. This study used a qualitative approach to examine barriers and facilitators to healthy eating in schools. Case studies were conducted with 8 low-income Michigan middle schools. Interviews were conducted with 1 administrator, the food service director, and 1 member of the coordinated school health team at each school. Barriers included budgetary constraints leading to low prioritization of health initiatives; availability of unhealthy competitive foods; and perceptions that students would not eat healthy foods. Schools had made improvements to foods and increased nutrition education. Support from administrators, teamwork among staff, and acknowledging student preferences facilitated positive changes. Schools with a key set of characteristics, (presence of a coordinated school health team, nutrition policies, and a school health champion) made more improvements. The set of key characteristics identified in successful schools may represent a school's health climate. While models of school climate have been utilized in the educational field in relation to academic outcomes, a health-specific model of school climate would be useful in guiding school health practitioners and researchers and may improve the effectiveness of interventions aimed at improving student dietary intake and other health behaviors. © 2014, American School Health Association.

Facilitators to Promoting Health in Schools: Is School Health Climate the Key?*

PubMed Central

Lucarelli, Jennifer F.; Alaimo, Katherine; Mang, Ellen; Martin, Caroline; Miles, Richard; Bailey, Deborah; Kelleher, Deanne K.; Drzal, Nicholas B.; Liu, Hui

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND Schools can promote healthy eating in adolescents. This study used a qualitative approach to examine barriers and facilitators to healthy eating in schools. METHODS Case studies were conducted with 8 low-income Michigan middle schools. Interviews were conducted with 1 administrator, the food service director, and 1 member of the coordinated school health team at each school. RESULTS Barriers included budgetary constraints leading to low prioritization of health initiatives; availability of unhealthy competitive foods; and perceptions that students would not eat healthy foods. Schools had made improvements to foods and increased nutrition education. Support from administrators, teamwork among staff, and acknowledging student preferences facilitated positive changes. Schools with a key set of characteristics, (presence of a coordinated school health team, nutrition policies, and a school health champion) made more improvements. CONCLUSIONS The set of key characteristics identified in successful schools may represent a school’s health climate. While models of school climate have been utilized in the educational field in relation to academic outcomes, a health-specific model of school climate would be useful in guiding school health practitioners and researchers and may improve the effectiveness of interventions aimed at improving student dietary intake and other health behaviors. PMID:25099428

[Research on climatic factors of ecology suitability regionalization of atractylodis].

PubMed

Tan, Zhe-tian; Wang, Hao; Zhu, Shou-dong; Yan, Yu-ping; Guo, Lan-ping; Zheng, Yu-guang

2015-11-01

Through study on the correlation between atractylodis lactones ingredient content and climatic factors, we research regionalization from climatic of five main producing provinces of the country, in order to provide a scientific basis for atractylodis' conscious cultivation. By sampling from 40 origins which from five main producing provinces of the country, we use SPSS to analysis variation of atractylodis lactones ingredient content in different conditions of climatic factors and the effect of each factors. Then according to the relationship between atractylodis lactones ingredient content and climatic factors, we use ArcGIS to conduct ecological suitability regionalization based on climatic factors. The most suitable climatic condition for cultivation of atractylodis: the wettest month precipitation 220-230 mm, the warmest average temperature 25 degrees C, the average temperature of driest season 10 degrees C.

Biological and physical factors controlling aggregate stability under different climatic conditions in Southern Spain.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ángel Gabarrón-Galeote, Miguel; Damián Ruiz-Sinoga, Jose; Francisco Martinez-Murillo, Juan; Lavee, Hanoch

2013-04-01

Soil aggregation is a key factor determining the soil structure. The presence of stable aggregates is essential to maintain a good soil structure, that in turn plays an important role in sustaining agricultural productivity and preserving environmental quality. A wide range of physical and biological soil components are involved in the aggregate formation and stabilization, namely clay mineral content; the quantity and quality of organic matter, that can be derived from plants, fungal hyphae, microorganism and soil animals; and the soil water content. Climatic conditions, through their effect on soil water content, vegetation cover and organic matter content, are supposed to affect soil aggregation. Thus the main objective of this research is to analyse the effect of organic matter, clay content and soil water content on aggregate stability along a climatic transect in Southern Spain. This study was conducted in four catchments along a pluviometric gradient in the South of Spain (rainfall depth decreases from west to east from more than 1000 mm year-1 to less than 300 mm year-1) and was based on a methodology approximating the climatic gradient in Mediterranean conditions. The selected sites shared similar conditions of geology, topography and soil use, which allowed making comparisons among them and relating the differences to the pluviometric conditions. In February 2007, 250 disturbed and undisturbed samples from the first 5cm of the soil were collected along the transect. We measured the aggregate stability, organic matter, clay content and bulk density of every sample. In the field we measured rainfall, air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, wind direction, solar radiation, potential evapotranspiration, soil water content, vegetation cover and presence of litter. Our results suggest that aggregate stability is a property determined by a great number of highly variable factors, which can make extremely difficult to predict its behavior taking in

Key challenges and priorities for modelling European grasslands under climate change.

PubMed

Kipling, Richard P; Virkajärvi, Perttu; Breitsameter, Laura; Curnel, Yannick; De Swaef, Tom; Gustavsson, Anne-Maj; Hennart, Sylvain; Höglind, Mats; Järvenranta, Kirsi; Minet, Julien; Nendel, Claas; Persson, Tomas; Picon-Cochard, Catherine; Rolinski, Susanne; Sandars, Daniel L; Scollan, Nigel D; Sebek, Leon; Seddaiu, Giovanna; Topp, Cairistiona F E; Twardy, Stanislaw; Van Middelkoop, Jantine; Wu, Lianhai; Bellocchi, Gianni

2016-10-01

Grassland-based ruminant production systems are integral to sustainable food production in Europe, converting plant materials indigestible to humans into nutritious food, while providing a range of environmental and cultural benefits. Climate change poses significant challenges for such systems, their productivity and the wider benefits they supply. In this context, grassland models have an important role in predicting and understanding the impacts of climate change on grassland systems, and assessing the efficacy of potential adaptation and mitigation strategies. In order to identify the key challenges for European grassland modelling under climate change, modellers and researchers from across Europe were consulted via workshop and questionnaire. Participants identified fifteen challenges and considered the current state of modelling and priorities for future research in relation to each. A review of literature was undertaken to corroborate and enrich the information provided during the horizon scanning activities. Challenges were in four categories relating to: 1) the direct and indirect effects of climate change on the sward 2) climate change effects on grassland systems outputs 3) mediation of climate change impacts by site, system and management and 4) cross-cutting methodological issues. While research priorities differed between challenges, an underlying theme was the need for accessible, shared inventories of models, approaches and data, as a resource for stakeholders and to stimulate new research. Developing grassland models to effectively support efforts to tackle climate change impacts, while increasing productivity and enhancing ecosystem services, will require engagement with stakeholders and policy-makers, as well as modellers and experimental researchers across many disciplines. The challenges and priorities identified are intended to be a resource 1) for grassland modellers and experimental researchers, to stimulate the development of new research

Key Impact Factors on Dam Break Fatalities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, D.; Yu, Z.; Song, Y.; Han, D.; Li, Y.

2016-12-01

Dam failures can lead to catastrophes on human society. However, there is a lack of research about dam break fatalities, especially on the key factors that affect fatalities. Based on the analysis of historical dam break cases, most studies have used the regression analysis to explore the correlation between those factors and fatalities, but without implementing optimization to find the dominating factors. In order to understand and reduce the risk of fatalities, this study has proposed a new method to select the impact factors on the fatality. It employs an improved ANN (Artificial Neural Network) combined with LOOCV (Leave-one-out cross-validation) and SFS (Stepwise Forward Selection) approach to explore the nonlinear relationship between impact factors and life losses. It not only considers the factors that have been widely used in the literature but also introduces new factors closely involved with fatalities. Dam break cases occurred in China from 1954 to 2013 are summarized, within which twenty-five cases are selected with a comprehensive coverage of geographic position and temporal variation. Twelve impact factors are taken into account as the inputs, i.e., severity of dam break flood (SF), population at risk (PR), public understanding of dam break (UB), warning time (TW), evacuation condition (EC), weather condition during dam break (WB), dam break mode (MB), water storage (SW), building vulnerability (VB), dam break time (TB), average distance from the affected area to the dam (DD) and preventive measures by government (PG).From those, three key factors of SF, MB and TB are chosen. The proposed method is able to extract the key factors, and the derived fatality model performs well in various types of dam break conditions.

Museum specimens reveal loss of pollen host plants as key factor driving wild bee decline in The Netherlands.

PubMed

Scheper, Jeroen; Reemer, Menno; van Kats, Ruud; Ozinga, Wim A; van der Linden, Giel T J; Schaminée, Joop H J; Siepel, Henk; Kleijn, David

2014-12-09

Evidence for declining populations of both wild and managed bees has raised concern about a potential global pollination crisis. Strategies to mitigate bee loss generally aim to enhance floral resources. However, we do not really know whether loss of preferred floral resources is the key driver of bee decline because accurate assessment of host plant preferences is difficult, particularly for species that have become rare. Here we examine whether population trends of wild bees in The Netherlands can be explained by trends in host plants, and how this relates to other factors such as climate change. We determined host plant preference of bee species using pollen loads on specimens in entomological collections that were collected before the onset of their decline, and used atlas data to quantify population trends of bee species and their host plants. We show that decline of preferred host plant species was one of two main factors associated with bee decline. Bee body size, the other main factor, was negatively related to population trend, which, because larger bee species have larger pollen requirements than smaller species, may also point toward food limitation as a key factor driving wild bee loss. Diet breadth and other potential factors such as length of flight period or climate change sensitivity were not important in explaining twentieth century bee population trends. These results highlight the species-specific nature of wild bee decline and indicate that mitigation strategies will only be effective if they target the specific host plants of declining species.

Museum specimens reveal loss of pollen host plants as key factor driving wild bee decline in The Netherlands

PubMed Central

Scheper, Jeroen; Reemer, Menno; van Kats, Ruud; Ozinga, Wim A.; van der Linden, Giel T. J.; Schaminée, Joop H. J.; Siepel, Henk; Kleijn, David

2014-01-01

Evidence for declining populations of both wild and managed bees has raised concern about a potential global pollination crisis. Strategies to mitigate bee loss generally aim to enhance floral resources. However, we do not really know whether loss of preferred floral resources is the key driver of bee decline because accurate assessment of host plant preferences is difficult, particularly for species that have become rare. Here we examine whether population trends of wild bees in The Netherlands can be explained by trends in host plants, and how this relates to other factors such as climate change. We determined host plant preference of bee species using pollen loads on specimens in entomological collections that were collected before the onset of their decline, and used atlas data to quantify population trends of bee species and their host plants. We show that decline of preferred host plant species was one of two main factors associated with bee decline. Bee body size, the other main factor, was negatively related to population trend, which, because larger bee species have larger pollen requirements than smaller species, may also point toward food limitation as a key factor driving wild bee loss. Diet breadth and other potential factors such as length of flight period or climate change sensitivity were not important in explaining twentieth century bee population trends. These results highlight the species-specific nature of wild bee decline and indicate that mitigation strategies will only be effective if they target the specific host plants of declining species. PMID:25422416

Temporal Responses of NDVI to Climate Factors in Different Climatic Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zare, H.

2015-12-01

The satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) has been widely used to investigate the impact of climate factors on vegetation changes. However, a few studies have concentrated on comparing the relationship of climate factors and vegetation in different climatic regions. To enhance the understanding of these relationship, a temporal analysis was carried out on time series of 16-day NDVI from MODIS (2000-2014) during the growing season in ten protected areas of different regions of Iran. The correlation analyses between climate factors and NDVI was classified into two sub-periods. First from February to April and second from May to September. In the first sub-period, NDVI was more correlated to temperature than precipitation, all the areas had positive correlation with temperature. Slope of regression in arid region was less than others. In contrast, precipitation had different impact on NDVI among the locations from February to April. The negative correlation was found between precipitation and woody lands (humid regions), whereas precipitation in Bafgh and Turan in which annual plants are dominant (arid regions), had positive impact on NDVI. In the second sub-period, temperature showed negative significant influence on NDVI; however, the slope of regression was not identical across the locations. Woody lands had more strong correlation with temperature. NDVI sensitivity to temperature had a time lag of 30 days in most of areas, whereas arid regions did not show time lag. Positive correlation was found between precipitation and NDVI during warm period in all the locations. The areas covered by perennial plant had 1-2 months lag to respond to precipitation. Overall, no significant trend in NDVI changes was shown during the study period. We concluded that NDVI sensitivity to climate factors relies on vegetation type and time of year.

Multi-Factor Impact Analysis of Agricultural Production in Bangladesh with Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruane, Alex C.; Major, David C.; Yu, Winston H.; Alam, Mozaharul; Hussain, Sk. Ghulam; Khan, Abu Saleh; Hassan, Ahmadul; Al Hossain, Bhuiya Md. Tamim; Goldberg, Richard; Horton, Radley M.;

Key Factors in Development of Man-Made and Natural Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pechurkin, N. S.

1999-01-01

Key factors of ecosystem functioning are of the same nature for artificial and natural types. An hierarchical approach gives the opportunity for estimation of the quantitative behavior of both individual links and the system as a whole. At the organismic level we can use interactions of studied macroorganisms (man, animal, higher plant) with selected microorganisms as key indicating factors of the organisms immune status. The most informative factor for the population/community level is an age structure of populations and relationships of domination/elimination. The integrated key factors of the ecosystems level are productivity and rates of cycling of the limiting substances. The key factors approach is of great value for growth regulations and monitoring the state of any ecosystem, including the life support system (LSS)-type.

Changes in Landscape Greenness and Climatic Factors over ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Monitoring and quantifying changes in vegetation cover over large areas using remote sensing can be achieved using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), an indicator of greenness. However, distinguishing gradual shifts in NDVI (e.g. climate change) versus direct and rapid changes (e.g., fire, land development) is challenging as changes can be confounded by time-dependent patterns, and variation associated with climatic factors. In the present study we leveraged a method, that we previously developed for a pilot study, to address these confounding factors by evaluating NDVI change using autoregression techniques that compare results from univariate (NDVI vs. time) and multivariate analyses (NDVI vs. time and climatic factors) for ~7,660,636 1-km2 pixels comprising the 48 contiguous states of the USA, over a 25-year period (1989−2013). NDVI changed significantly for 48% of the nation over the 25-year in the univariate analyses where most significant trends (85%) indicated an increase in greenness over time. By including climatic factors in the multivariate analyses of NDVI over time, the detection of significant NDVI trends increased to 53% (an increase of 5%). Comparisons of univariate and multivariate analyses for each pixel showed that less than 4% of the pixels had a significant NDVI trend attributable to gradual climatic changes while the remainder of pixels with a significant NDVI trend indicated that changes were due to direct factors. Whi

WRKY Transcription Factors: Key Components in Abscisic Acid Signaling

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-01-01

Review article WRKY transcription factors : key components in abscisic acid signalling Deena L. Rushton1, Prateek Tripathi1, Roel C. Rabara1, Jun Lin1...May 2011. *Correspondence (Tel +605 688 5749; fax +605 688 5624; email paul.rushton@sdstate.edu) Keywords: abscisic acid, WRKY transcription factor ...seed germination, drought, abiotic stress. Summary WRKY transcription factors (TFs) are key regulators of many plant processes, including the responses

Protective factors for mental health and well-being in a changing climate: Perspectives from Inuit youth in Nunatsiavut, Labrador.

PubMed

Petrasek MacDonald, Joanna; Cunsolo Willox, Ashlee; Ford, James D; Shiwak, Inez; Wood, Michele

2015-09-01

The Canadian Arctic is experiencing rapid changes in climatic conditions, with implications for Inuit communities widely documented. Youth have been identified as an at-risk population, with likely impacts on mental health and well-being. This study identifies and characterizes youth-specific protective factors that enhance well-being in light of a rapidly changing climate, and examines how climatic and environmental change challenges these. In-depth conversational interviews were conducted with youth aged 15-25 from the five communities of the Nunatsiavut region of Labrador, Canada: Nain, Hopedale, Postville, Makkovik, and Rigolet. Five key protective factors were identified as enhancing their mental health and well-being: being on the land; connecting to Inuit culture; strong communities; relationships with family and friends; and staying busy. Changing sea ice and weather conditions were widely reported to be compromising these protective factors by reducing access to the land, and increasing the danger of land-based activities. This study contributes to existing work on Northern climate change adaptation by identifying factors that enhance youth resilience and, if incorporated into adaptation strategies, may contribute to creating successful and effective adaptation responses. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate Variability, Social and Environmental Factors, and Ross River Virus Transmission: Research Development and Future Research Needs

PubMed Central

Tong, Shilu; Dale, Pat; Nicholls, Neville; Mackenzie, John S.; Wolff, Rodney; McMichael, Anthony J.

2008-01-01

Background Arbovirus diseases have emerged as a global public health concern. However, the impact of climatic, social, and environmental variability on the transmission of arbovirus diseases remains to be determined. Objective Our goal for this study was to provide an overview of research development and future research directions about the interrelationship between climate variability, social and environmental factors, and the transmission of Ross River virus (RRV), the most common and widespread arbovirus disease in Australia. Methods We conducted a systematic literature search on climatic, social, and environmental factors and RRV disease. Potentially relevant studies were identified from a series of electronic searches. Results The body of evidence revealed that the transmission cycles of RRV disease appear to be sensitive to climate and tidal variability. Rainfall, temperature, and high tides were among major determinants of the transmission of RRV disease at the macro level. However, the nature and magnitude of the interrelationship between climate variability, mosquito density, and the transmission of RRV disease varied with geographic area and socioenvironmental condition. Projected anthropogenic global climatic change may result in an increase in RRV infections, and the key determinants of RRV transmission we have identified here may be useful in the development of an early warning system. Conclusions The analysis indicates that there is a complex relationship between climate variability, social and environmental factors, and RRV transmission. Different strategies may be needed for the control and prevention of RRV disease at different levels. These research findings could be used as an additional tool to support decision making in disease control/surveillance and risk management. PMID:19079707

Climate variability, social and environmental factors, and ross river virus transmission: research development and future research needs.

PubMed

Tong, Shilu; Dale, Pat; Nicholls, Neville; Mackenzie, John S; Wolff, Rodney; McMichael, Anthony J

2008-12-01

Arbovirus diseases have emerged as a global public health concern. However, the impact of climatic, social, and environmental variability on the transmission of arbovirus diseases remains to be determined. Our goal for this study was to provide an overview of research development and future research directions about the interrelationship between climate variability, social and environmental factors, and the transmission of Ross River virus (RRV), the most common and widespread arbovirus disease in Australia. We conducted a systematic literature search on climatic, social, and environmental factors and RRV disease. Potentially relevant studies were identified from a series of electronic searches. The body of evidence revealed that the transmission cycles of RRV disease appear to be sensitive to climate and tidal variability. Rainfall, temperature, and high tides were among major determinants of the transmission of RRV disease at the macro level. However, the nature and magnitude of the interrelationship between climate variability, mosquito density, and the transmission of RRV disease varied with geographic area and socioenvironmental condition. Projected anthropogenic global climatic change may result in an increase in RRV infections, and the key determinants of RRV transmission we have identified here may be useful in the development of an early warning system. The analysis indicates that there is a complex relationship between climate variability, social and environmental factors, and RRV transmission. Different strategies may be needed for the control and prevention of RRV disease at different levels. These research findings could be used as an additional tool to support decision making in disease control/surveillance and risk management.

Climate stories: Why do climate scientists and sceptical voices participate in the climate debate?

PubMed

Sharman, Amelia; Howarth, Candice

2017-10-01

Public perceptions of the climate debate predominantly frame the key actors as climate scientists versus sceptical voices; however, it is unclear why climate scientists and sceptical voices choose to participate in this antagonistic and polarised public battle. A narrative interview approach is used to better understand the underlying rationales behind 22 climate scientists' and sceptical voices' engagement in the climate debate, potential commonalities, as well as each actor's ability to be critically self-reflexive. Several overlapping rationales are identified including a sense of duty to publicly engage, agreement that complete certainty about the complex assemblage of climate change is unattainable and that political factors are central to the climate debate. We argue that a focus on potential overlaps in perceptions and rationales as well as the ability to be critically self-reflexive may encourage constructive discussion among actors previously engaged in purposefully antagonistic exchange on climate change.

Argumentation Key to Communicating Climate Change to the Public

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bleicher, R. E.; Lambert, J. L.

2012-12-01

Argumentation plays an important role in how we communicate climate change science to the public and is a key component integrated throughout the Next Generation Science Standards. A scientific argument can be described as a disagreement between explanations with data being used to justify each position. Argumentation is social process where two or more individuals construct and critique arguments (Kuhn & Udell, 2003; Nussbaum, 1997). Sampson, Grooms, and Walker's (2011) developed a framework for understanding the components of a scientific argument. The three components start with a claim (a conjecture, conclusion, explanation, or an answer to a research question). This claim must fit the evidence (observations that show trends over time, relationships between variables or difference between groups). The evidence must be justified with reasoning (explains how the evidence supports the explanation and whey it should count as support). In a scientific argument, or debate, the controversy focuses on how data were collected, what data can or should be included, and what inferences can be made based on a set of evidence. Toulmin's model (1969) also includes rebutting or presenting an alternative explanation supported by counter evidence and reasoning of why the alternative is not the appropriate explanation for the question of the problem. The process of scientific argumentation should involve the construction and critique of scientific arguments, one that involves the consideration of alternative hypotheses (Lawson, 2003). Scientific literacy depends as much on the ability to refute and recognize poor scientific arguments as much as it does on the ability to present an effective argument based on good scientific data (Osborne, 2010). Argument is, therefore, a core feature of science. When students learn to construct a sound scientific argument, they demonstrate critical thinking and a mastery of the science being taught. To present a convincing argument in support of

Factors Influencing Smallholder Farmers' Climate Change Perceptions: A Study from Farmers in Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Habtemariam, Lemlem Teklegiorgis; Gandorfer, Markus; Kassa, Getachew Abate; Heissenhuber, Alois

2016-08-01

Factors influencing climate change perceptions have vital roles in designing strategies to enrich climate change understanding. Despite this, factors that influence smallholder farmers' climate change perceptions have not yet been adequately studied. As many of the smallholder farmers live in regions where climate change is predicted to have the most negative impact, their climate change perception is of particular interest. In this study, based on data collected from Ethiopian smallholder farmers, we assessed farmers' perceptions and anticipations of past and future climate change. Furthermore, the factors influencing farmers' climate change perceptions and the relation between farmers' perceptions and available public climate information were assessed. Our findings revealed that a majority of respondents perceive warming temperatures and decreasing rainfall trends that correspond with the local meteorological record. Farmers' perceptions about the past climate did not always reflect their anticipations about the future. A substantial number of farmers' anticipations of future climate were less consistent with climate model projections. The recursive bivariate probit models employed to explore factors affecting different categories of climate change perceptions illustrate statistical significance for explanatory variables including location, gender, age, education, soil fertility status, climate change information, and access to credit services. The findings contribute to the literature by providing evidence not just on farmers' past climate perceptions but also on future climate anticipations. The identified factors help policy makers to provide targeted extension and advisory services to enrich climate change understanding and support appropriate farm-level climate change adaptations.

Factors Influencing Smallholder Farmers' Climate Change Perceptions: A Study from Farmers in Ethiopia.

PubMed

Habtemariam, Lemlem Teklegiorgis; Gandorfer, Markus; Kassa, Getachew Abate; Heissenhuber, Alois

2016-08-01

Factors influencing climate change perceptions have vital roles in designing strategies to enrich climate change understanding. Despite this, factors that influence smallholder farmers' climate change perceptions have not yet been adequately studied. As many of the smallholder farmers live in regions where climate change is predicted to have the most negative impact, their climate change perception is of particular interest. In this study, based on data collected from Ethiopian smallholder farmers, we assessed farmers' perceptions and anticipations of past and future climate change. Furthermore, the factors influencing farmers' climate change perceptions and the relation between farmers' perceptions and available public climate information were assessed. Our findings revealed that a majority of respondents perceive warming temperatures and decreasing rainfall trends that correspond with the local meteorological record. Farmers' perceptions about the past climate did not always reflect their anticipations about the future. A substantial number of farmers' anticipations of future climate were less consistent with climate model projections. The recursive bivariate probit models employed to explore factors affecting different categories of climate change perceptions illustrate statistical significance for explanatory variables including location, gender, age, education, soil fertility status, climate change information, and access to credit services. The findings contribute to the literature by providing evidence not just on farmers' past climate perceptions but also on future climate anticipations. The identified factors help policy makers to provide targeted extension and advisory services to enrich climate change understanding and support appropriate farm-level climate change adaptations.

Why Interfaces are the Key for Developing Climate Services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cortekar, Jörg; Bender, Steffen; Groth, Markus

2015-04-01

Responding to climate change today involves both mitigation to address the cause and adaptation as a response to already on-going and expected changes. But to what exactly do we have to adapt? And what happens, when environmental, economical or administrative boundary conditions changes? In recent years the concept of climate services has evolved to provide user tailored information to meet individual adaptation needs. According to the Global Framework for Climate Services, climate services involve high-quality data e.g. on temperature, rainfall, wind, etc., as well as maps, risk and vulnerability analyses, assessments, and long-term projections and scenarios. Depending on specific user's needs, these data and information products may be combined with non-meteorological sector-specific data, such as agricultural production, flood risk maps or health trends, and other socio-economic variables to support decision-making of stakeholders who are affected by climate change. This, still non-exhaustive list already indicates that many different scientific disciplines are involved in the development and provision of climate services. Integrating different and equally important scientific approaches to contribute to the solution of one specific problem is challenging. In economics, for instance, many different and promising methods and tools such as cost-benefit-analyses are available which play a key role in providing policy makers and other stakeholders with data and information in order to create a robust decision-making basis for efficiently using scarce budgets. Cost-benefit-analysis is a well-established method in economic theory, its application in the field of climate change adaptation, however, is still new. The bulk of cost and benefit assessments currently pursues a top-down-approach. That is, the required data is generated by downscaling cost and benefit estimations of global impact assessment models to a specific region. In many cases global information are not

SARS: Key factors in crisis management.

PubMed

Tseng, Hsin-Chao; Chen, Thai-Form; Chou, Shieu-Ming

2005-03-01

This study was conducted at a single hospital selected in Taipei during the SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) outbreak from March to July, 2003 in Taiwan. During this period of time, 104 SARS patients were admitted to the hospital. There were no negative reports related to the selected hospital despite its being located right in the center of an area struck by the epidemic. The purpose of this study was to identify the key factors enabling the hospital to survive SARS unscathed. Data were collected from in-depth interviews with the nursing directors and nursing managers of the SARS units, along with a review of relevant hospital documents. The five key elements identified as survival factors during this SARS crisis are as follows: 1. good control of timing for crisis management, 2. careful decision-making, 3. thorough implementation, 4. effective communication, and 5. trust between management and employees. The results of this study reconfirmed the selected hospital as a model for good crisis management during the SARS epidemic.

Climate Leadership Literacy as a Component of Climate Literacy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kothavala, D. L.

2014-12-01

How can the 3rd National Climate Assessment be used to go beyond climate change literacy, to include literacy in climate leadership and its improvement? The National Climate Assessment refers to "no-regrets" strategies (i.e., beneficial despite uncertainty), such as, e.g., energy efficiency, cultivating networks, and growing our adaptive capacity. As we cultivate our capacity as a species to pivot, climate leadership performance and its improvement become legitimate - and essential - realms of research, planning, and practice. However, climate leadership across sectors is not yet well-articulated; and operationalizing literacy expressed as 'what to do' may be viewed as overtly prescriptive by scientists. This talk examines approaches and illustrative examples provided in the Climate Assessment at the scale of cities, states, and firms; along with key findings from the National Academies on communicating science to decision makers; in identifying factors to enhance literacy in climate leadership and performance.

Climate Classification is an Important Factor in ­Assessing Hospital Performance Metrics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boland, M. R.; Parhi, P.; Gentine, P.; Tatonetti, N. P.

2017-12-01

Context/Purpose: Climate is a known modulator of disease, but its impact on hospital performance metrics remains unstudied. Methods: We assess the relationship between Köppen-Geiger climate classification and hospital performance metrics, specifically 30-day mortality, as reported in Hospital Compare, and collected for the period July 2013 through June 2014 (7/1/2013 - 06/30/2014). A hospital-level multivariate linear regression analysis was performed while controlling for known socioeconomic factors to explore the relationship between all-cause mortality and climate. Hospital performance scores were obtained from 4,524 hospitals belonging to 15 distinct Köppen-Geiger climates and 2,373 unique counties. Results: Model results revealed that hospital performance metrics for mortality showed significant climate dependence (p<0.001) after adjusting for socioeconomic factors. Interpretation: Currently, hospitals are reimbursed by Governmental agencies using 30-day mortality rates along with 30-day readmission rates. These metrics allow Government agencies to rank hospitals according to their `performance' along these metrics. Various socioeconomic factors are taken into consideration when determining individual hospitals performance. However, no climate-based adjustment is made within the existing framework. Our results indicate that climate-based variability in 30-day mortality rates does exist even after socioeconomic confounder adjustment. Use of standardized high-level climate classification systems (such as Koppen-Geiger) would be useful to incorporate in future metrics. Conclusion: Climate is a significant factor in evaluating hospital 30-day mortality rates. These results demonstrate that climate classification is an important factor when comparing hospital performance across the United States.

Climate Change Risk Perception in Taiwan: Correlation with Individual and Societal Factors

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

This study differentiates the risk perception and influencing factors of climate change along the dimensions of global severity and personal threat. Using the 2013 Taiwan Social Change Survey (TSGS) data (N = 2001) as a representative sample of adults from Taiwan, we investigated the influencing factors of the risk perceptions of climate change in these two dimensions (global severity and personal threat). Logistic regression models were used to examine the correlations of individual factors (gender, age, education, climate-related disaster experience and risk awareness, marital status, employment status, household income, and perceived social status) and societal factors (religion, organizational embeddedness, and political affiliations) with the above two dimensions. The results demonstrate that climate-related disaster experience has no significant impact on either the perception of global severity or the perception of personal impact. However, climate-related risk awareness (regarding typhoons, in particular) is positively associated with both dimensions of the perceived risks of climate change. With higher education, individuals are more concerned about global severity than personal threat. Regarding societal factors, the supporters of political parties have higher risk perceptions of climate change than people who have no party affiliation. Religious believers have higher risk perceptions of personal threat than non-religious people. This paper ends with a discussion about the effectiveness of efforts to enhance risk perception of climate change with regard to global severity and personal threat. PMID:29316685

Climate Change Risk Perception in Taiwan: Correlation with Individual and Societal Factors.

PubMed

Sun, Yingying; Han, Ziqiang

2018-01-08

This study differentiates the risk perception and influencing factors of climate change along the dimensions of global severity and personal threat. Using the 2013 Taiwan Social Change Survey (TSGS) data (N = 2001) as a representative sample of adults from Taiwan, we investigated the influencing factors of the risk perceptions of climate change in these two dimensions (global severity and personal threat). Logistic regression models were used to examine the correlations of individual factors (gender, age, education, climate-related disaster experience and risk awareness, marital status, employment status, household income, and perceived social status) and societal factors (religion, organizational embeddedness, and political affiliations) with the above two dimensions. The results demonstrate that climate-related disaster experience has no significant impact on either the perception of global severity or the perception of personal impact. However, climate-related risk awareness (regarding typhoons, in particular) is positively associated with both dimensions of the perceived risks of climate change. With higher education, individuals are more concerned about global severity than personal threat. Regarding societal factors, the supporters of political parties have higher risk perceptions of climate change than people who have no party affiliation. Religious believers have higher risk perceptions of personal threat than non-religious people. This paper ends with a discussion about the effectiveness of efforts to enhance risk perception of climate change with regard to global severity and personal threat.

Key factors affecting dying children and their families.

PubMed

Hinds, Pamela S; Schum, Lisa; Baker, Justin N; Wolfe, Joanne

2005-01-01

The death of a child alters the life and health of others immediately and for the rest of their lives. How a child dies influences parents' abilities to continue their role functions as well as siblings' abilities to make and maintain friendships, and may be the basis for health care providers' decisions to exit direct care roles. Thus, facilitating a "good death"-an obvious care priority for all involved with the dying child-ought also to be a priority for the health of bereaved families and affected health care providers. Making this a care priority is complicated by a serious lack of data, as details of the last hours or weeks of a dying child or adolescent's life are largely unknown. The purpose of this paper is to identify key factors that affect the course of dying children and adolescents and that of their bereaved survivors, and to link those key factors to needed research that could produce clinically relevant findings to improve the care of these patients. Key factors described here include suffering (physical, psychological, and spiritual), communication, decision making, prognostic ambiguities, ability of the seriously ill child to give assent to research participation, and educational preparation of health care providers to give competent end-of-life care.

Anthropogenic Climate Change in Asia: Key Challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramaswamy, V.

2009-12-01

The energy, agricultural, and water sectors in Asia, a vast continent that comprises more than half of the world's population, are crucially vulnerable to shifts in climate. The acceleration of economic development in Asia over the past few decades, the dependence of its huge agricultural economy on rainfall, and its growing energy demands have thrust climate change and its impacts squarely into important sectors of the Asian society. Further, it is likely that there has been significant anthropogenic warming over the past 50 years averaged over the Asian continent (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [2007]; see Figure 1a). Asian megacities are already witnessing stresses in food, water, transportation, health, and air quality. The situation could become even worse with projected changes in temperature and rainfall in the 21st century, coupled with the likelihood that climate change will exacerbate extremes.

Joint effects of climate variability and socioecological factors on dengue transmission: epidemiological evidence.

PubMed

Akter, Rokeya; Hu, Wenbiao; Naish, Suchithra; Banu, Shahera; Tong, Shilu

2017-06-01

To assess the epidemiological evidence on the joint effects of climate variability and socioecological factors on dengue transmission. Following PRISMA guidelines, a detailed literature search was conducted in PubMed, Web of Science and Scopus. Peer-reviewed, freely available and full-text articles, considering both climate and socioecological factors in relation to dengue, published in English from January 1993 to October 2015 were included in this review. Twenty studies have met the inclusion criteria and assessed the impact of both climatic and socioecological factors on dengue dynamics. Among those, four studies have further investigated the relative importance of climate variability and socioecological factors on dengue transmission. A few studies also developed predictive models including both climatic and socioecological factors. Due to insufficient data, methodological issues and contextual variability of the studies, it is hard to draw conclusion on the joint effects of climate variability and socioecological factors on dengue transmission. Future research should take into account socioecological factors in combination with climate variables for a better understanding of the complex nature of dengue transmission as well as for improving the predictive capability of dengue forecasting models, to develop effective and reliable early warning systems. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Selecting a climate model subset to optimise key ensemble properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herger, Nadja; Abramowitz, Gab; Knutti, Reto; Angélil, Oliver; Lehmann, Karsten; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

2018-02-01

End users studying impacts and risks caused by human-induced climate change are often presented with large multi-model ensembles of climate projections whose composition and size are arbitrarily determined. An efficient and versatile method that finds a subset which maintains certain key properties from the full ensemble is needed, but very little work has been done in this area. Therefore, users typically make their own somewhat subjective subset choices and commonly use the equally weighted model mean as a best estimate. However, different climate model simulations cannot necessarily be regarded as independent estimates due to the presence of duplicated code and shared development history. Here, we present an efficient and flexible tool that makes better use of the ensemble as a whole by finding a subset with improved mean performance compared to the multi-model mean while at the same time maintaining the spread and addressing the problem of model interdependence. Out-of-sample skill and reliability are demonstrated using model-as-truth experiments. This approach is illustrated with one set of optimisation criteria but we also highlight the flexibility of cost functions, depending on the focus of different users. The technique is useful for a range of applications that, for example, minimise present-day bias to obtain an accurate ensemble mean, reduce dependence in ensemble spread, maximise future spread, ensure good performance of individual models in an ensemble, reduce the ensemble size while maintaining important ensemble characteristics, or optimise several of these at the same time. As in any calibration exercise, the final ensemble is sensitive to the metric, observational product, and pre-processing steps used.

Millennial Climatic Fluctuations Are Key to the Structure of Last Glacial Ecosystems

PubMed Central

Huntley, Brian; Allen, Judy R. M.; Collingham, Yvonne C.; Hickler, Thomas; Lister, Adrian M.; Singarayer, Joy; Stuart, Anthony J.; Sykes, Martin T.; Valdes, Paul J.

2013-01-01

Whereas fossil evidence indicates extensive treeless vegetation and diverse grazing megafauna in Europe and northern Asia during the last glacial, experiments combining vegetation models and climate models have to-date simulated widespread persistence of trees. Resolving this conflict is key to understanding both last glacial ecosystems and extinction of most of the mega-herbivores. Using a dynamic vegetation model (DVM) we explored the implications of the differing climatic conditions generated by a general circulation model (GCM) in “normal” and “hosing” experiments. Whilst the former approximate interstadial conditions, the latter, designed to mimic Heinrich Events, approximate stadial conditions. The “hosing” experiments gave simulated European vegetation much closer in composition to that inferred from fossil evidence than did the “normal” experiments. Given the short duration of interstadials, and the rate at which forest cover expanded during the late-glacial and early Holocene, our results demonstrate the importance of millennial variability in determining the character of last glacial ecosystems. PMID:23613985

Millennial climatic fluctuations are key to the structure of last glacial ecosystems.

PubMed

Huntley, Brian; Allen, Judy R M; Collingham, Yvonne C; Hickler, Thomas; Lister, Adrian M; Singarayer, Joy; Stuart, Anthony J; Sykes, Martin T; Valdes, Paul J

2013-01-01

Whereas fossil evidence indicates extensive treeless vegetation and diverse grazing megafauna in Europe and northern Asia during the last glacial, experiments combining vegetation models and climate models have to-date simulated widespread persistence of trees. Resolving this conflict is key to understanding both last glacial ecosystems and extinction of most of the mega-herbivores. Using a dynamic vegetation model (DVM) we explored the implications of the differing climatic conditions generated by a general circulation model (GCM) in "normal" and "hosing" experiments. Whilst the former approximate interstadial conditions, the latter, designed to mimic Heinrich Events, approximate stadial conditions. The "hosing" experiments gave simulated European vegetation much closer in composition to that inferred from fossil evidence than did the "normal" experiments. Given the short duration of interstadials, and the rate at which forest cover expanded during the late-glacial and early Holocene, our results demonstrate the importance of millennial variability in determining the character of last glacial ecosystems.

Resilience of Key Biological Parameters of the Senegalese Flat Sardinella to Overfishing and Climate Change.

PubMed

Ba, Kamarel; Thiaw, Modou; Lazar, Najih; Sarr, Alassane; Brochier, Timothée; Ndiaye, Ismaïla; Faye, Alioune; Sadio, Oumar; Panfili, Jacques; Thiaw, Omar Thiom; Brehmer, Patrice

2016-01-01

The stock of the Senegalese flat sardinella, Sardinella maderensis, is highly exploited in Senegal, West Africa. Its growth and reproduction parameters are key biological indicators for improving fisheries management. This study reviewed these parameters using landing data from small-scale fisheries in Senegal and literature information dated back more than 25 years. Age was estimated using length-frequency data to calculate growth parameters and assess the growth performance index. With global climate change there has been an increase in the average sea surface temperature along the Senegalese coast but the length-weight parameters, sex ratio, size at first sexual maturity, period of reproduction and condition factor of S. maderensis have not changed significantly. The above parameters of S. maderensis have hardly changed, despite high exploitation and fluctuations in environmental conditions that affect the early development phases of small pelagic fish in West Africa. This lack of plasticity of the species regarding of the biological parameters studied should be considered when planning relevant fishery management plans.

Climate: Is the past the key to the future?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hay, W. W.; DeConto, R. M.; Wold, C. N.

The climate of the Holocene is not well suited to be the baseline for the climate of the planet. It is an interglacial, a state typical of only 10% of the past few million years. It is a time of relative sea-level stability after a rapid 130-m rise from the lowstand during the last glacial maximum. Physical geologic processes are operating at unusual rates and much of the geochemical system is not in a steady state. During most of the Phanerozoic there have been no continental ice sheets on the earth, and the planet's meridional temperature gradient has been much less than it is presently. Major factors influencing climate are insolation, greenhouse gases, paleogeography, and vegetation; the first two are discussed in this paper. Changes in the earth's orbital parameters affect the amount of radiation received from the sun at different latitudes over the course of the year. During the last climate cycle, the waxing and waning of the northern hemisphere continental ice sheets closely followed the changes in summer insolation at the latitude of the northern hemisphere polar circle. The overall intensity of insolation in the northern hemisphere is governed by the precession of the earth's axis of rotation, and the precession and ellipticity of the earth's orbit. At the polar circle a meridional minimum of summer insolation becomes alternately more and less pronounced as the obliquity of the earth's axis of rotation changes. Feedback processes amplify the insolation signal. Greenhouse gases (H2O, CO2, CH4, CFCs) modulate the insolation-driven climate. The atmospheric content of CO2 during the last glacial maximum was approximately 30% less than during the present interglacial. A variety of possible causes for this change have been postulated. The present burning of fossil fuels, deforestation, and cement manufacture since the beginning of the industrial revolution have added CO2 to the atmosphere when its content due to glacial-interglacial variation was already at a

Combined influence of multiple climatic factors on the incidence of bacterial foodborne diseases.

PubMed

Park, Myoung Su; Park, Ki Hwan; Bahk, Gyung Jin

2018-01-01

Information regarding the relationship between the incidence of foodborne diseases (FBD) and climatic factors is useful in designing preventive strategies for FBD based on anticipated future climate change. To better predict the effect of climate change on foodborne pathogens, the present study investigated the combined influence of multiple climatic factors on bacterial FBD incidence in South Korea. During 2011-2015, the relationships between 8 climatic factors and the incidences of 13 bacterial FBD, were determined based on inpatient stays, on a monthly basis using the Pearson correlation analyses, multicollinearity tests, principal component analysis (PCA), and the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) modeling. Of the 8 climatic variables, the combination of temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, insolation, and cloudiness was significantly associated with salmonellosis (P<0.01), vibriosis (P<0.05), and enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli O157:H7 infection (P<0.01). The combined effects of snowfall, wind speed, duration of sunshine, and cloudiness were not significant for these 3 FBD. Other FBD, including campylobacteriosis, were not significantly associated with any combination of climatic factors. These findings indicate that the relationships between multiple climatic factors and bacterial FBD incidence can be valuable for the development of prediction models for future patterns of diseases in response to changes in climate. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluating climatic and non-climatic stresses for declining surface water quality in Bagmati River of Nepal.

PubMed

Panthi, Jeeban; Li, Fengting; Wang, Hongtao; Aryal, Suman; Dahal, Piyush; Ghimire, Sheila; Kabenge, Martin

2017-06-01

Both climatic and non-climatic factors affect surface water quality. Similar to its effect across various sectors and areas, climate change has potential to affect surface water quality directly and indirectly. On the one hand, the rise in temperature enhances the microbial activity and decomposition of organic matter in the river system and changes in rainfall alter discharge and water flow in the river ultimately affecting pollution dilution level. On the other hand, the disposal of organic waste and channelizing municipal sewage into the rivers seriously worsen water quality. This study attempts to relate hydro-climatology, water quality, and impact of climatic and non-climatic stresses in affecting river water quality in the upper Bagmati basin in Central Nepal. The results showed that the key water quality indicators such as dissolved oxygen and chemical oxygen demand are getting worse in recent years. No significant relationships were found between the key water quality indicators and changes in key climatic variables. However, the water quality indicators correlated with the increase in urban population and per capita waste production in the city. The findings of this study indicate that dealing with non-climatic stressors such as reducing direct disposal of sewerage and other wastes in the river rather than emphasizing on working with the effects from climate change would largely help to improve water quality in the river flowing from highly populated urban areas.

Association between climate factors and diarrhoea in a Mekong Delta area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phung, Dung; Huang, Cunrui; Rutherford, Shannon; Chu, Cordia; Wang, Xiaoming; Nguyen, Minh; Nguyen, Nga Huy; Manh, Cuong Do; Nguyen, Trung Hieu

2015-09-01

The Mekong Delta is vulnerable to changes in climate and hydrological events which alter environmental conditions, resulting in increased risk of waterborne diseases. Research exploring the association between climate factors and diarrhoea, the most frequent waterborne disease in Mekong Delta region, is sparse. This study evaluated the climate-diarrhoea association in Can Tho city, a typical Mekong Delta area in Vietnam. Climate data (temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall) were obtained from the Southern Regional Hydro-Meteorological Centre, and weekly counts of diarrhoea visits were obtained from Can Tho Preventive Medicine Centre from 2004 to 2011. Analysis of climate and health variables was carried out using spline function to adjust for seasonal and long-term trends of variables. A distributed lag model was used to investigate possible delayed effects of climate variables on diarrhoea (considering 0-4 week lag periods), then the multivariate Poisson regression was used to examine any potential association between climate factors and diarrhoea. The results indicated that the diarrhoea incidence peaked within the period August-October annually. Significant positive associations were found between increased diarrhoea and high temperature at 4 weeks prior to the date of hospital visits (IRR = 1.07; 95 % CI = 1.04-1.08), high relative humidity (IRR = 1.13; 95 % CI = 1.12-1.15) and high (>90th percentile) cumulative rainfall (IRR = 1.05; 95 % CI = 1.05-1.08). The association between climate factors and diarrhoea was stronger in rural than urban areas. These findings in the context of the projected changes of climate conditions suggest that climate change will have important implications for residential health in Mekong Delta region.

From shared care to disease management: key-influencing factors

PubMed Central

Eijkelberg, Irmgard M.J.G.; Spreeuwenberg, Cor; Mur-Veeman, Ingrid M.; Wolffenbuttel, Bruce H.R.

2001-01-01

Abstract Background In order to improve the quality of care of chronically ill patients the traditional boundaries between primary and secondary care are questioned. To demolish these boundaries so-called ‘shared care’ projects have been initiated in which different ways of substitution of care are applied. When these projects end, disease management may offer a solution to expand the achieved co-operation between primary and secondary care. Objective Answering the question: What key factors influence the development and implementation of shared care projects from a management perspective and how are they linked? Theory The theoretical framework is based on the concept of the learning organisation. Design Reference point is a multiple case study that finally becomes a single case study. Data are collected by means of triangulation. The studied cases concern two interrelated Dutch shared care projects for type 2 diabetic patients, that in the end proceed as one disease management project. Results In these cases the predominant key-influencing factors appear to be the project management, commitment and local context, respectively. The factor project management directly links the latter two, albeit managing both appear prerequisites to its success. In practice this implies managing the factors' interdependency by the application of change strategies and tactics in a committed and skilful way. Conclusion Project management, as the most important and active key factor, is advised to cope with the interrelationships of the influencing factors in a gradually more fundamental way by using strategies and tactics that enable learning processes. Then small-scale shared care projects may change into a disease management network at a large scale, which may yield the future blueprint to proceed. PMID:16896415

From shared care to disease management: key-influencing factors.

PubMed

Eijkelberg, I M; Spreeuwenberg, C; Mur-Veeman, I M; Wolffenbuttel, B H

2001-01-01

In order to improve the quality of care of chronically ill patients the traditional boundaries between primary and secondary care are questioned. To demolish these boundaries so-called 'shared care' projects have been initiated in which different ways of substitution of care are applied. When these projects end, disease management may offer a solution to expand the achieved co-operation between primary and secondary care. Answering the question: What key factors influence the development and implementation of shared care projects from a management perspective and how are they linked? The theoretical framework is based on the concept of the learning organisation. Reference point is a multiple case study that finally becomes a single case study. Data are collected by means of triangulation. The studied cases concern two interrelated Dutch shared care projects for type 2 diabetic patients, that in the end proceed as one disease management project. In these cases the predominant key-influencing factors appear to be the project management, commitment and local context, respectively. The factor project management directly links the latter two, albeit managing both appear prerequisites to its success. In practice this implies managing the factors' interdependency by the application of change strategies and tactics in a committed and skillful way. Project management, as the most important and active key factor, is advised to cope with the interrelationships of the influencing factors in a gradually more fundamental way by using strategies and tactics that enable learning processes. Then small-scale shared care projects may change into a disease management network at a large scale, which may yield the future blueprint to proceed.

Multilevel Multi-Informant Structure of the Authoritative School Climate Survey

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Konold, Timothy; Cornell, Dewey; Huang, Francis; Meyer, Patrick; Lacey, Anna; Nekvasil, Erin; Heilbrun, Anna; Shukla, Kathan

2014-01-01

The Authoritative School Climate Survey was designed to provide schools with a brief assessment of 2 key characteristics of school climate--disciplinary structure and student support--that are hypothesized to influence 2 important school climate outcomes--student engagement and prevalence of teasing and bullying in school. The factor structure of…

Dengue Vector Dynamics (Aedes aegypti) Influenced by Climate and Social Factors in Ecuador: Implications for Targeted Control

PubMed Central

Stewart Ibarra, Anna M.; Ryan, Sadie J.; Beltrán, Efrain; Mejía, Raúl; Silva, Mercy; Muñoz, Ángel

2013-01-01

Background Dengue fever, a mosquito-borne viral disease, is now the fastest spreading tropical disease globally. Previous studies indicate that climate and human behavior interact to influence dengue virus and vector (Aedes aegypti) population dynamics; however, the relative effects of these variables depends on local ecology and social context. We investigated the roles of climate and socio-ecological factors on Ae. aegypti population dynamics in Machala, a city in southern coastal Ecuador where dengue is hyper-endemic. Methods/Principal findings We studied two proximate urban localities where we monitored weekly Ae. aegypti oviposition activity (Nov. 2010-June 2011), conducted seasonal pupal surveys, and surveyed household to identify dengue risk factors. The results of this study provide evidence that Ae. aegypti population dynamics are influenced by social risk factors that vary by season and lagged climate variables that vary by locality. Best-fit models to predict the presence of Ae. aegypti pupae included parameters for household water storage practices, access to piped water, the number of households per property, condition of the house and patio, and knowledge and perceptions of dengue. Rainfall and minimum temperature were significant predictors of oviposition activity, although the effect of rainfall varied by locality due to differences in types of water storage containers. Conclusions These results indicate the potential to reduce the burden of dengue in this region by conducting focused vector control interventions that target high-risk households and containers in each season and by developing predictive models using climate and non-climate information. These findings provide the region's public health sector with key information for conducting time and location-specific vector control campaigns, and highlight the importance of local socio-ecological studies to understand dengue dynamics. See Text S1 for an executive summary in Spanish. PMID:24324542

Dominant climatic factors driving annual runoff changes at the catchment scale across China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Zhongwei; Yang, Hanbo; Yang, Dawen

2016-07-01

With global climate changes intensifying, the hydrological response to climate changes has attracted more attention. It is beneficial not only for hydrology and ecology but also for water resource planning and management to understand the impact of climate change on runoff. In addition, there are large spatial variations in climate type and geographic characteristics across China. To gain a better understanding of the spatial variation of the response of runoff to changes in climatic factors and to detect the dominant climatic factors driving changes in annual runoff, we chose the climate elasticity method proposed by Yang and Yang (2011). It is shown that, in most catchments of China, increasing air temperature and relative humidity have negative impacts on runoff, while declining net radiation and wind speed have positive impacts on runoff, which slow the overall decline in runoff. The dominant climatic factors driving annual runoff are precipitation in most parts of China, net radiation mainly in some catchments of southern China, air temperature and wind speed mainly in some catchments in northern China.

Heat, Human Performance, and Occupational Health: A Key Issue for the Assessment of Global Climate Change Impacts.

PubMed

Kjellstrom, Tord; Briggs, David; Freyberg, Chris; Lemke, Bruno; Otto, Matthias; Hyatt, Olivia

2016-01-01

Ambient heat exposure is a well-known health hazard, which reduces human performance and work capacity at heat levels already common in tropical and subtropical areas. Various health problems have been reported. Increasing heat exposure during the hottest seasons of each year is a key feature of global climate change. Heat exhaustion and reduced human performance are often overlooked in climate change health impact analysis. Later this century, many among the four billion people who live in hot areas worldwide will experience significantly reduced work capacity owing to climate change. In some areas, 30-40% of annual daylight hours will become too hot for work to be carried out. The social and economic impacts will be considerable, with global gross domestic product (GDP) losses greater than 20% by 2100. The analysis to date is piecemeal. More analysis of climate change-related occupational health impact assessments is greatly needed.

Sensitivity of bud burst in key tree species in the UK to recent climate variability and change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abernethy, Rachel; Cook, Sally; Hemming, Deborah; McCarthy, Mark

2017-04-01

Analysing the relationship between the changing climate of the UK and the spatial and temporal distribution of spring bud burst plays an important role in understanding ecosystem functionality and predicting future phenological trends. The location and timing of bud burst of eleven species of trees alongside climatic factors such as, temperature, precipitation and hours of sunshine (photoperiod) were used to investigate: i. which species' bud burst timing experiences the greatest impact from a changing climate, ii. which climatic factor has the greatest influence on the timing of bud burst, and iii. whether the location of bud burst is influenced by climate variability. Winter heatwave duration was also analysed as part of an investigation into the relationship between temperature trends of a specific winter period and the following spring events. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and statistical analysis tools were used to visualise spatial patterns and to analyse the phenological and climate data through regression and analysis of variance (ANOVA) tests. Where there were areas that showed a strong positive or negative relationship between phenology and climate, satellite imagery was used to calculate a Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and a Leaf Area Index (LAI) to further investigate the relationships found. It was expected that in the north of the UK, where bud burst tends to occur later in the year than in the south, that the bud bursts would begin to occur earlier due to increasing temperatures and increased hours of sunshine. However, initial results show that for some species, the bud burst timing tends to remain or become later in the year. Interesting results will be found when investigating the statistical significance between the changing location of the bud bursts and each climatic factor.

Climate Change and Collective Violence.

PubMed

Levy, Barry S; Sidel, Victor W; Patz, Jonathan A

2017-03-20

Climate change is causing increases in temperature, changes in precipitation and extreme weather events, sea-level rise, and other environmental impacts. It is also causing or contributing to heat-related disorders, respiratory and allergic disorders, infectious diseases, malnutrition due to food insecurity, and mental health disorders. In addition, increasing evidence indicates that climate change is causally associated with collective violence, generally in combination with other causal factors. Increased temperatures and extremes of precipitation with their associated consequences, including resultant scarcity of cropland and other key environmental resources, are major pathways by which climate change leads to collective violence. Public health professionals can help prevent collective violence due to climate change (a) by supporting mitigation measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, (b) by promoting adaptation measures to address the consequences of climate change and to improve community resilience, and (c) by addressing underlying risk factors for collective violence, such as poverty and socioeconomic disparities.

The Future of Government Funding for Persons with Disabilities: Some Key Factors.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ross, E. Clarke

1980-01-01

The paper identifies and discusses key factors associated with government funding for disabled individuals. An introductory section traces the growth of public expenditures in recent years. Five key factors affecting government funding are examined (sample subtopics in parentheses): state government tax and spending limits (Proposition 13 and the…

Quantifying Key Climate Parameter Uncertainties Using an Earth System Model with a Dynamic 3D Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olson, R.; Sriver, R. L.; Goes, M. P.; Urban, N.; Matthews, D.; Haran, M.; Keller, K.

2011-12-01

Climate projections hinge critically on uncertain climate model parameters such as climate sensitivity, vertical ocean diffusivity and anthropogenic sulfate aerosol forcings. Climate sensitivity is defined as the equilibrium global mean temperature response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Vertical ocean diffusivity parameterizes sub-grid scale ocean vertical mixing processes. These parameters are typically estimated using Intermediate Complexity Earth System Models (EMICs) that lack a full 3D representation of the oceans, thereby neglecting the effects of mixing on ocean dynamics and meridional overturning. We improve on these studies by employing an EMIC with a dynamic 3D ocean model to estimate these parameters. We carry out historical climate simulations with the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) varying parameters that affect climate sensitivity, vertical ocean mixing, and effects of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols. We use a Bayesian approach whereby the likelihood of each parameter combination depends on how well the model simulates surface air temperature and upper ocean heat content. We use a Gaussian process emulator to interpolate the model output to an arbitrary parameter setting. We use Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to estimate the posterior probability distribution function (pdf) of these parameters. We explore the sensitivity of the results to prior assumptions about the parameters. In addition, we estimate the relative skill of different observations to constrain the parameters. We quantify the uncertainty in parameter estimates stemming from climate variability, model and observational errors. We explore the sensitivity of key decision-relevant climate projections to these parameters. We find that climate sensitivity and vertical ocean diffusivity estimates are consistent with previously published results. The climate sensitivity pdf is strongly affected by the prior assumptions, and by the scaling

Climatic factors driving vegetation declines in the 2005 and 2010 Amazon droughts

PubMed Central

Zhao, Wenqian; Zhao, Xiang; Zhou, Tao; Wu, Donghai; Tang, Bijian; Wei, Hong

2017-01-01

Along with global climate change, the occurrence of extreme droughts in recent years has had a serious impact on the Amazon region. Current studies on the driving factors of the 2005 and 2010 Amazon droughts has focused on the influence of precipitation, whereas the impacts of temperature and radiation have received less attention. This study aims to explore the climate-driven factors of Amazonian vegetation decline during the extreme droughts using vegetation index, precipitation, temperature and radiation datasets. First, time-lag effects of Amazonian vegetation responses to precipitation, radiation and temperature were analyzed. Then, a multiple linear regression model was established to estimate the contributions of climatic factors to vegetation greenness, from which the dominant climate-driving factors were determined. Finally, the climate-driven factors of Amazonian vegetation greenness decline during the 2005 and 2010 extreme droughts were explored. The results showed that (i) in the Amazon vegetation greenness responded to precipitation, radiation and temperature, with apparent time lags for most averaging interval periods associated with vegetation index responses of 0–4, 0–9 and 0–6 months, respectively; (ii) on average, the three climatic factors without time lags explained 27.28±21.73% (mean±1 SD) of vegetation index variation in the Amazon basin, and this value increased by 12.22% and reached 39.50±27.85% when time lags were considered; (iii) vegetation greenness in this region in non-drought years was primarily affected by precipitation and shortwave radiation, and these two factors altogether accounted for 93.47% of the total explanation; and (iv) in the common epicenter of the two droughts, pixels with a significant variation in precipitation, radiation and temperature accounted for 36.68%, 40.07% and 10.40%, respectively, of all pixels showing a significant decrease in vegetation index in 2005, and 15.69%, 2.01% and 45.25% in 2010

Climatic factors driving vegetation declines in the 2005 and 2010 Amazon droughts.

PubMed

Zhao, Wenqian; Zhao, Xiang; Zhou, Tao; Wu, Donghai; Tang, Bijian; Wei, Hong

2017-01-01

Along with global climate change, the occurrence of extreme droughts in recent years has had a serious impact on the Amazon region. Current studies on the driving factors of the 2005 and 2010 Amazon droughts has focused on the influence of precipitation, whereas the impacts of temperature and radiation have received less attention. This study aims to explore the climate-driven factors of Amazonian vegetation decline during the extreme droughts using vegetation index, precipitation, temperature and radiation datasets. First, time-lag effects of Amazonian vegetation responses to precipitation, radiation and temperature were analyzed. Then, a multiple linear regression model was established to estimate the contributions of climatic factors to vegetation greenness, from which the dominant climate-driving factors were determined. Finally, the climate-driven factors of Amazonian vegetation greenness decline during the 2005 and 2010 extreme droughts were explored. The results showed that (i) in the Amazon vegetation greenness responded to precipitation, radiation and temperature, with apparent time lags for most averaging interval periods associated with vegetation index responses of 0-4, 0-9 and 0-6 months, respectively; (ii) on average, the three climatic factors without time lags explained 27.28±21.73% (mean±1 SD) of vegetation index variation in the Amazon basin, and this value increased by 12.22% and reached 39.50±27.85% when time lags were considered; (iii) vegetation greenness in this region in non-drought years was primarily affected by precipitation and shortwave radiation, and these two factors altogether accounted for 93.47% of the total explanation; and (iv) in the common epicenter of the two droughts, pixels with a significant variation in precipitation, radiation and temperature accounted for 36.68%, 40.07% and 10.40%, respectively, of all pixels showing a significant decrease in vegetation index in 2005, and 15.69%, 2.01% and 45.25% in 2010, respectively

Climate change impacts on mycotoxin risks in US maize

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

To ensure future food security, it is crucial to understand how potential climate change scenarios will affect agriculture. One key area of interest is how climatic factors, both in the near- and the long-term future, could affect fungal infection of crops and mycotoxin production by these fungi. ...

[Advance to the research of the climate factor effect on the distribution of plague].

PubMed

Zhang, A P; Wei, R J; Xiong, H M; Wang, Z Y

2016-05-01

Plague is an anthropozoonotic disease caused by the Yersinia pestis ,which developed by many factors including local climate factors. In recent years, more and more studies on the effects of climate on plague were conducted. According to the researches, climate factors (mainly the rainfall and temperature) affected the development and distribution of plague by influencing the abundance of plague host animals and fleas index. The climate also affected the epidemic dynamics and the scope of plague. There were significant differences existing in the influence of climate on the palgue developed in the north and south China. In the two different plague epidemic systems, the solitary Daurian ground squirrel-flea-plague and the social Mongolian gerbil-flea-plague, the obvious population differences existed among the responses of the host animal to the climate changes. Although the internal relationship between the rainfall, the flea index, the density of rodents and the plague supported the nutritional cascade hypothesis, it can not prove that there is a clear causality between the occurrence of plague and rainfall. So the influence of climate factors on plague distribution can only be used for early forecasting and warning of the plague.

Climate Change Vulnerability of Agro-Ecosystems: Does socio-economic factors matters?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Surendran Nair, S.; Preston, B. L.; King, A. W.; Mei, R.; Post, W. M.

2013-12-01

Climate variability and change has direct impacts on agriculture. Despite continual adaptation to climate as well as gains in technology innovation and adoption, agriculture is still vulnerable to changes in temperature and precipitation expected in coming decades. Generally, researchers use two major methodologies to understand the vulnerability of agro-ecosystems to climate change: process-based crop models and empirical models. However, these models are not yet designed to capture the influence of socioeconomic systems on agro-ecosystem processes and outcomes.. However, socioeconomic processes are an important factor driving agro-ecological responses to biophysical processes (climate, topography and soil), because of the role of human agency in mediating the response of agro-ecosystems to climate. We have developed a framework that integrates socioeconomic and biophysical characteristics of agro-ecosystems using cluster analysis and GIS tools. This framework has been applied to the U.S. Southeast to define unique socio-ecological domains for agriculture. The results demonstrate that socioeconomic characteristics are an important factor influencing agriculture production. These results suggest that the lack of attention to socioeconomic conditions and human agency in agro-ecological modeling creates a potential bias with respect to the representation of climate change impacts.

Climate change and disaster management.

PubMed

O'Brien, Geoff; O'Keefe, Phil; Rose, Joanne; Wisner, Ben

2006-03-01

Climate change, although a natural phenomenon, is accelerated by human activities. Disaster policy response to climate change is dependent on a number of factors, such as readiness to accept the reality of climate change, institutions and capacity, as well as willingness to embed climate change risk assessment and management in development strategies. These conditions do not yet exist universally. A focus that neglects to enhance capacity-building and resilience as a prerequisite for managing climate change risks will, in all likelihood, do little to reduce vulnerability to those risks. Reducing vulnerability is a key aspect of reducing climate change risk. To do so requires a new approach to climate change risk and a change in institutional structures and relationships. A focus on development that neglects to enhance governance and resilience as a prerequisite for managing climate change risks will, in all likelihood, do little to reduce vulnerability to those risks.

Providing the climatic component in human-climate interaction studies: 550,000 years of climate history in the Chew Bahir basin, a key HSPDP site in southern Ethiopia.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foerster, V. E.; Asrat, A.; Bronk Ramsey, C.; Chapot, M. S.; Cohen, A. S.; Dean, J. R.; Deocampo, D.; Deino, A. L.; Guenter, C.; Junginger, A.; Lamb, H. F.; Leng, M. J.; Roberts, H. M.; Schaebitz, F.; Trauth, M. H.

2017-12-01

As a contribution towards an enhanced understanding of human-climate interactions, the Hominin Sites and Paleolakes Drilling Project (HSPDP) has cored six predominantly lacustrine archives of climate change spanning much of the last 3.5 Ma in eastern Africa. All six sites in Ethiopia and Kenya are adjacent to key paleoanthropological sites encompassing diverse milestones in human evolution, dispersal, and technological innovation. The 280 m-long Chew Bahir sediment core, recovered from a tectonically-bound basin in the southern Ethiopian rift in late 2014, covers the past 550 ka of environmental history, an interval marked by intense climatic changes and includes the transition to the Middle Stone Age and the origin and dispersal of modern Homo sapiens. We present the outcome of lithologic and stratigraphic investigations, first interpretations of high resolution MSCL and XRF scanning data, and initial results of detailed multi-indicator analysis of the Chew Bahir cores. These analyses are based on more than 14,000 discrete samples, including grain size analyses and X-ray diffraction. An initial chronology, based on Ar/Ar and OSL dating, allows temporal calibration of our reconstruction of dry-wet cycles. Both geochemical and sedimentological data show that the Chew Bahir deposits are sensitive recorders of climate change on millennial to centennial timescales. Initial statistical analyses identify phases marked by abrupt climatic changes, whereas several long-term wet-dry oscillations reveal variations mostly in the precession ( 15-25 kyr), but also in the obliquity ( 40 kyr) and eccentricity frequency bands ( 90-120 kyr). The Chew Bahir record will help decode climate variation on several different time scales, as a consequence of orbitally-driven high-latitude glacial-interglacial shifts and variations in greenhouse gases, Indian and Atlantic Ocean sea-surface temperatures, as well as local solar irradiance. This 550 ka record of environmental change in eastern

Climate change effects on central New Mexico's land use, transportation system and key natural resources : task 1.1 memo.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-12-01

This report summarizes potential climate change effects on the availability of water, land use, transportation infrastructure, and key natural resources in central New Mexico. This work is being done as part of the Interagency Transportation, Land Us...

Key Factors that Influence Recruiting Young Chinese Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wang, Zhenmin

2007-01-01

The discussion in this paper is based on the assumption that international education is equated to recruiting and educating international students, even though its true concept goes far beyond this narrow understanding. The purpose of this research is to look at the key factors that influence recruiting young Chinese students, and make sure all…

Factorial validity and internal consistency of the motivational climate in physical education scale.

PubMed

Soini, Markus; Liukkonen, Jarmo; Watt, Anthony; Yli-Piipari, Sami; Jaakkola, Timo

2014-01-01

The aim of the study was to examine the construct validity and internal consistency of the Motivational Climate in Physical Education Scale (MCPES). A key element of the development process of the scale was establishing a theoretical framework that integrated the dimensions of task- and ego involving climates in conjunction with autonomy, and social relatedness supporting climates. These constructs were adopted from the self-determination and achievement goal theories. A sample of Finnish Grade 9 students, comprising 2,594 girls and 1,803 boys, completed the 18-item MCPES during one physical education class. The results of the study demonstrated that participants had highest mean in task-involving climate and the lowest in autonomy climate and ego-involving climate. Additionally, autonomy, social relatedness, and task- involving climates were significantly and strongly correlated with each other, whereas the ego- involving climate had low or negligible correlations with the other climate dimensions.The construct validity of the MCPES was analyzed using confirmatory factor analysis. The statistical fit of the four-factor model consisting of motivational climate factors supporting perceived autonomy, social relatedness, task-involvement, and ego-involvement was satisfactory. The results of the reliability analysis showed acceptable internal consistencies for all four dimensions. The Motivational Climate in Physical Education Scale can be considered as psychometrically valid tool to measure motivational climate in Finnish Grade 9 students. Key PointsThis study developed Motivational Climate in School Physical Education Scale (MCPES). During the development process of the scale, the theoretical framework using dimensions of task- and ego involving as well as autonomy, and social relatedness supporting climates was constructed. These constructs were adopted from the self-determination and achievement goal theories.The statistical fit of the four-factor model of the

Factorial Validity and Internal Consistency of the Motivational Climate in Physical Education Scale

PubMed Central

Soini, Markus; Liukkonen, Jarmo; Watt, Anthony; Yli-Piipari, Sami; Jaakkola, Timo

2014-01-01

The aim of the study was to examine the construct validity and internal consistency of the Motivational Climate in Physical Education Scale (MCPES). A key element of the development process of the scale was establishing a theoretical framework that integrated the dimensions of task- and ego involving climates in conjunction with autonomy, and social relatedness supporting climates. These constructs were adopted from the self-determination and achievement goal theories. A sample of Finnish Grade 9 students, comprising 2,594 girls and 1,803 boys, completed the 18-item MCPES during one physical education class. The results of the study demonstrated that participants had highest mean in task-involving climate and the lowest in autonomy climate and ego-involving climate. Additionally, autonomy, social relatedness, and task- involving climates were significantly and strongly correlated with each other, whereas the ego- involving climate had low or negligible correlations with the other climate dimensions.The construct validity of the MCPES was analyzed using confirmatory factor analysis. The statistical fit of the four-factor model consisting of motivational climate factors supporting perceived autonomy, social relatedness, task-involvement, and ego-involvement was satisfactory. The results of the reliability analysis showed acceptable internal consistencies for all four dimensions. The Motivational Climate in Physical Education Scale can be considered as psychometrically valid tool to measure motivational climate in Finnish Grade 9 students. Key Points This study developed Motivational Climate in School Physical Education Scale (MCPES). During the development process of the scale, the theoretical framework using dimensions of task- and ego involving as well as autonomy, and social relatedness supporting climates was constructed. These constructs were adopted from the self-determination and achievement goal theories. The statistical fit of the four-factor model of the

Composition and structure of Pinus koraiensis mixed forest respond to spatial climatic changes.

PubMed

Zhang, Jingli; Zhou, Yong; Zhou, Guangsheng; Xiao, Chunwang

2014-01-01

Although some studies have indicated that climate changes can affect Pinus koraiensis mixed forest, the responses of composition and structure of Pinus koraiensis mixed forests to climatic changes are unknown and the key climatic factors controlling the composition and structure of Pinus koraiensis mixed forest are uncertain. Field survey was conducted in the natural Pinus koraiensis mixed forests along a latitudinal gradient and an elevational gradient in Northeast China. In order to build the mathematical models for simulating the relationships of compositional and structural attributes of the Pinus koraiensis mixed forest with climatic and non-climatic factors, stepwise linear regression analyses were performed, incorporating 14 dependent variables and the linear and quadratic components of 9 factors. All the selected new models were computed under the +2°C and +10% precipitation and +4°C and +10% precipitation scenarios. The Max Temperature of Warmest Month, Mean Temperature of Warmest Quarter and Precipitation of Wettest Month were observed to be key climatic factors controlling the stand densities and total basal areas of Pinus koraiensis mixed forest. Increased summer temperatures and precipitations strongly enhanced the stand densities and total basal areas of broadleaf trees but had little effect on Pinus koraiensis under the +2°C and +10% precipitation scenario and +4°C and +10% precipitation scenario. These results show that the Max Temperature of Warmest Month, Mean Temperature of Warmest Quarter and Precipitation of Wettest Month are key climatic factors which shape the composition and structure of Pinus koraiensis mixed forest. Although the Pinus koraiensis would persist, the current forests dominated by Pinus koraiensis in the region would all shift and become broadleaf-dominated forests due to the dramatic increase of broadleaf trees under the future global warming and increased precipitation.

Use of a safety climate questionnaire in UK health care: factor structure, reliability and usability.

PubMed

Hutchinson, A; Cooper, K L; Dean, J E; McIntosh, A; Patterson, M; Stride, C B; Laurence, B E; Smith, C M

2006-10-01

To explore the factor structure, reliability, and potential usefulness of a patient safety climate questionnaire in UK health care. Four acute hospital trusts and nine primary care trusts in England. The questionnaire used was the 27 item Teamwork and Safety Climate Survey. Thirty three healthcare staff commented on the wording and relevance. The questionnaire was then sent to 3650 staff within the 13 NHS trusts, seeking to achieve at least 600 responses as the basis for the factor analysis. 1307 questionnaires were returned (36% response). Factor analyses and reliability analyses were carried out on 897 responses from staff involved in direct patient care, to explore how consistently the questions measured the underlying constructs of safety climate and teamwork. Some questionnaire items related to multiple factors or did not relate strongly to any factor. Five items were discarded. Two teamwork factors were derived from the remaining 11 teamwork items and three safety climate factors were derived from the remaining 11 safety items. Internal consistency reliabilities were satisfactory to good (Cronbach's alpha > or =0.69 for all five factors). This is one of the few studies to undertake a detailed evaluation of a patient safety climate questionnaire in UK health care and possibly the first to do so in primary as well as secondary care. The results indicate that a 22 item version of this safety climate questionnaire is useable as a research instrument in both settings, but also demonstrates a more general need for thorough validation of safety climate questionnaires before widespread usage.

A changing climate of skepticism: The factors shaping climate change coverage in the US press.

PubMed

Schmid-Petri, Hannah; Adam, Silke; Schmucki, Ivo; Häussler, Thomas

2017-05-01

Skepticism toward climate change has a long tradition in the United States. We focus on mass media as the conveyors of the image of climate change and ask: Is climate change skepticism still a characteristic of US print media coverage? If so, to what degree and in what form? And which factors might pave the way for skeptics entering mass media debates? We conducted a quantitative content analysis of US print media during one year (1 June 2012 to 31 May 2013). Our results show that the debate has changed: fundamental forms of climate change skepticism (such as denial of anthropogenic causes) have been abandoned in the coverage, being replaced by more subtle forms (such as the goal to avoid binding regulations). We find no evidence for the norm of journalistic balance, nor do our data support the idea that it is the conservative press that boosts skepticism.

Socioeconomic factors outweigh climate in the regional difference of suicide death rate in Taiwan.

PubMed

Tsai, Jui-Feng

2010-09-30

The present study explored both socioeconomic and climatic factors to obtain a more comprehensive view of the asymmetric regional suicide death rate during 1998-2006 in Taiwan. The annual suicide death rate, population and meteorological data from 19 cities/counties in Taiwan were analysed by multiple regression. Five socioeconomic (sex ratio, no spouse, aged, unemployment and low income) and three climatic (temperature, rainfall and sunshine) factors were identified as significant, explaining 59.0% of the variance in the total suicide death rate. 'Without spouse' and 'aged' were associated with the highest risk, while 'low income with financial aids' was strongly protective. The most influential climatic factor was 'temperature,' which was negatively correlated with suicide. 'Sunshine' was positively associated with suicide. The socioeconomic and climatic factors contributed 52.7% and 6.8%, respectively, to the variance of the total suicide death rate. Limitations of the study included the fact that no individual events were considered, the study was of relatively short duration and it was confined to the territory of Taiwan. Socioeconomic factors outweighed climatic factors in explaining regional differences in the suicide death rate in Taiwan. Temperature weighed more than sunshine. 'Thermotherapy' seems more clinically relevant than the popular light therapy, at least in Taiwan. Copyright © 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An Analysis of the Relationship between Select Organizational Climate Factors and Job Satisfaction Factors as Reported by Community College Personnel

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

San Giacomo, Rose-Marie Carla

2011-01-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate the overall satisfaction with organizational climate factors across seven studies of various levels of community college personnel. A secondary purpose was to determine if there was a significant relationship between satisfaction with organizational climate factors and the importance of job satisfaction…

Key factors affecting urban runoff pollution under cold climatic conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valtanen, Marjo; Sillanpää, Nora; Setälä, Heikki

2015-10-01

Urban runoff contains various pollutants and has the potential of deteriorating the quality of aquatic ecosystems. In this study our objective is to shed light on the factors that control the runoff water quality in urbanized catchments. The effects of runoff event characteristics, land use type and catchment imperviousness on event mass loads (EML) and event mean concentrations (EMC) were studied during warm and cold periods in three study catchments (6.1, 6.5 and 12.6 ha in size) in the city of Lahti, Finland. Runoff and rainfall were measured continuously for two years at each catchment. Runoff samples were taken for total nutrients (tot-P and tot-N), total suspended solids (TSS), heavy metals (Zn, Cr, Al, Co, Ni, Cu, Pb, Mn) and total organic carbon (TOC). Stepwise multiple linear regression analysis (SMLR) was used to identify general relationships between the following variables: event water quality, runoff event characteristics and catchment characteristics. In general, the studied variables explained 50-90% of the EMLs but only 30-60% of the EMCs, with runoff duration having an important role in most of the SMLR models. Mean runoff intensity or peak flow was also often included in the runoff quality models. Yet, the importance (being the first, second or third best) and role (negative or positive impact) of the explanatory variables varied between the cold and warm period. Land use type often explained cold period concentrations, but imperviousness alone explained EMCs weakly. As for EMLs, the influence of imperviousness and/or land use was season and pollutant dependent. The study suggests that pollutant loads can be - throughout the year - adequately predicted by runoff characteristics given that seasonal differences are taken into account. Although pollutant concentrations were sensitive to variation in seasonal and catchment conditions as well, the accurate estimation of EMCs would require a more complete set of explanatory factors than used in this

Spatial diffusion of influenza outbreak-related climate factors in Chiang Mai Province, Thailand.

PubMed

Nakapan, Supachai; Tripathi, Nitin Kumar; Tipdecho, Taravudh; Souris, Marc

2012-10-24

Influenza is one of the most important leading causes of respiratory illness in the countries located in the tropical areas of South East Asia and Thailand. In this study the climate factors associated with influenza incidence in Chiang Mai Province, Northern Thailand, were investigated. Identification of factors responsible for influenza outbreaks and the mapping of potential risk areas in Chiang Mai are long overdue. This work examines the association between yearly climate patterns between 2001 and 2008 and influenza outbreaks in the Chiang Mai Province. The climatic factors included the amount of rainfall, percent of rainy days, relative humidity, maximum, minimum temperatures and temperature difference. The study develops a statistical analysis to quantitatively assess the relationship between climate and influenza outbreaks and then evaluate its suitability for predicting influenza outbreaks. A multiple linear regression technique was used to fit the statistical model. The Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) interpolation and Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques were used in mapping the spatial diffusion of influenza risk zones. The results show that there is a significance correlation between influenza outbreaks and climate factors for the majority of the studied area. A statistical analysis was conducted to assess the validity of the model comparing model outputs and actual outbreaks.

IPCC Climate Change 2013: Mitigation of Climate Change - Key Findings and Lessons Learned

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sokona, Youba

2014-05-01

The Working Group III contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Mitigation of Climate Change, examines the results of scientific research about mitigation, with special attention on how knowledge has evolved since the Fourth Assessment Report published in 2007. Throughout, the focus is on the implications of its findings for policy, without being prescriptive about the particular policies that governments and other important participants in the policy process should adopt. The report begins with a framing of important concepts and methods that help to contextualize the findings presented throughout the assessment. The valuation of risks and uncertainties, ethical concepts and the context of sustainable development and equity are among the guiding principles for the assessment of mitigation strategies. The report highlights past trends in stocks and flows of greenhouse gases and the factors that drive emissions at global, regional, and sectoral scales including economic growth, technology or population changes. It provides analyses of the technological, economic and institutional requirements of long-term mitigation scenarios and details on mitigation measures and policies that are applied in different economic sectors and human settlements. It then discusses interactions of mitigation policies and different policy instrument types at national, regional and global governance levels and between economic sectors, The Working Group III report comprises 16 chapters and in assembling this assessment authors were guided by the principles of the IPCC mandate: to be explicit about mitigation options, to be explicit about their costs and about their risks and opportunities vis-à-vis other development priorities, and to be explicit about the underlying criteria, concepts, and methods for evaluating alternative policies.

Climate and soil factors influencing seedling recruitment of plant species used for dryland restoration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muñoz-Rojas, Miriam; Erickson, Todd E.; Martini, Dylan C.; Dixon, Kingsley W.; Merritt, David J.

2016-06-01

Land degradation affects 10-20 % of drylands globally. Intensive land use and management, large-scale disturbances such as extractive operations, and global climate change, have contributed to degradation of these systems worldwide. Restoring these damaged environments is critical to improving ecosystem services and functions, conserve biodiversity, and contribute to climate resilience, food security, and landscape sustainability. Here, we present a case study on plant species of the mining intensive semi-arid Pilbara region in Western Australia that examines the effects of climate and soil factors on the restoration of drylands. We analysed the effects of a range of rainfall and temperature scenarios and the use of alternative soil materials on seedling recruitment of key native plant species from this area. Experimental studies were conducted in controlled environment facilities where conditions simulated those found in the Pilbara. Soil from topsoil (T) stockpiles and waste materials (W) from an active mine site were mixed at different proportions (100 % T, 100 % W, and two mixes of topsoil and waste at 50 : 50 and 25 : 75 ratios) and used as growth media. Our results showed that seedling recruitment was highly dependent on soil moisture and emergence was generally higher in the topsoil, which had the highest available water content. In general, responses to the climate scenarios differed significantly among the native species which suggest that future climate scenarios of increasing drought might affect not only seedling recruitment but also diversity and structure of native plant communities. The use of waste materials from mining operations as growth media could be an alternative to the limited topsoil. However, in the early stages of plant establishment successful seedling recruitment can be challenging in the absence of water. These limitations could be overcome by using soil amendments but the cost associated to these solutions at large landscape scales

Factor structure of the Essen Climate Evaluation Schema measure of social climate in a UK medium-security setting.

PubMed

Milsom, Sophia A; Freestone, Mark; Duller, Rachel; Bouman, Marisa; Taylor, Celia

2014-04-01

Social climate has an influence on a number of treatment-related factors, including service users' behaviour, staff morale and treatment outcomes. Reliable assessment of social climate is, therefore, beneficial within forensic mental health settings. The Essen Climate Evaluation Schema (EssenCES) has been validated in forensic mental health services in the UK and Germany. Preliminary normative data have been produced for UK high-security national health services and German medium-security and high-security services. We aim to validate the use of the EssenCES scale (English version) and provide preliminary normative data in UK medium-security hospital settings. The EssenCES scale was completed in a medium-security mental health service as part of a service-wide audit. A total of 89 patients and 112 staff completed the EssenCES. The three-factor structure of the EssenCES and its internal construct validity were maintained within the sample. Scores from this medium-security hospital sample were significantly higher than those from earlier high-security hospital data, with three exceptions--'patient cohesion' according to the patients and 'therapeutic hold' according to staff and patients. Our data support the use of the EssenCES scale as a valid measure for assessing social climate within medium-security hospital settings. Significant differences between the means of high-security and medium-security service samples imply that degree of security is a relevant factor affecting the ward climate and that in monitoring quality of secure services, it is likely to be important to apply different scores to reflect standards. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Exploring key factors in online shopping with a hybrid model.

PubMed

Chen, Hsiao-Ming; Wu, Chia-Huei; Tsai, Sang-Bing; Yu, Jian; Wang, Jiangtao; Zheng, Yuxiang

2016-01-01

Nowadays, the web increasingly influences retail sales. An in-depth analysis of consumer decision-making in the context of e-business has become an important issue for internet vendors. However, factors affecting e-business are complicated and intertwined. To stimulate online sales, understanding key influential factors and causal relationships among the factors is important. To gain more insights into this issue, this paper introduces a hybrid method, which combines the Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) with the analytic network process, called DANP method, to find out the driving factors that influence the online business mostly. By DEMATEL approach the causal graph showed that "online service" dimension has the highest degree of direct impact on other dimensions; thus, the internet vendor is suggested to made strong efforts on service quality throughout the online shopping process. In addition, the study adopted DANP to measure the importance of key factors, among which "transaction security" proves to be the most important criterion. Hence, transaction security should be treated with top priority to boost the online businesses. From our study with DANP approach, the comprehensive information can be visually detected so that the decision makers can spotlight on the root causes to develop effectual actions.

How Action-Learning Coaches Foster a Climate Conducive to Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gibson, Sara Henderson

2011-01-01

Today's businesses rely on the effective functioning of self-directed work teams to learn how to solve complex problems and take action. A key factor in a team's ability to perform in this manner is a group climate characterized by psychological safety. Psychological safety must often compete with a climate of evaluative pressure frequently found…

Identifying Key Hospital Service Quality Factors in Online Health Communities

PubMed Central

Jung, Yuchul; Hur, Cinyoung; Jung, Dain

2015-01-01

Background The volume of health-related user-created content, especially hospital-related questions and answers in online health communities, has rapidly increased. Patients and caregivers participate in online community activities to share their experiences, exchange information, and ask about recommended or discredited hospitals. However, there is little research on how to identify hospital service quality automatically from the online communities. In the past, in-depth analysis of hospitals has used random sampling surveys. However, such surveys are becoming impractical owing to the rapidly increasing volume of online data and the diverse analysis requirements of related stakeholders. Objective As a solution for utilizing large-scale health-related information, we propose a novel approach to identify hospital service quality factors and overtime trends automatically from online health communities, especially hospital-related questions and answers. Methods We defined social media–based key quality factors for hospitals. In addition, we developed text mining techniques to detect such factors that frequently occur in online health communities. After detecting these factors that represent qualitative aspects of hospitals, we applied a sentiment analysis to recognize the types of recommendations in messages posted within online health communities. Korea’s two biggest online portals were used to test the effectiveness of detection of social media–based key quality factors for hospitals. Results To evaluate the proposed text mining techniques, we performed manual evaluations on the extraction and classification results, such as hospital name, service quality factors, and recommendation types using a random sample of messages (ie, 5.44% (9450/173,748) of the total messages). Service quality factor detection and hospital name extraction achieved average F1 scores of 91% and 78%, respectively. In terms of recommendation classification, performance (ie, precision) is

Identifying key hospital service quality factors in online health communities.

PubMed

Jung, Yuchul; Hur, Cinyoung; Jung, Dain; Kim, Minki

2015-04-07

The volume of health-related user-created content, especially hospital-related questions and answers in online health communities, has rapidly increased. Patients and caregivers participate in online community activities to share their experiences, exchange information, and ask about recommended or discredited hospitals. However, there is little research on how to identify hospital service quality automatically from the online communities. In the past, in-depth analysis of hospitals has used random sampling surveys. However, such surveys are becoming impractical owing to the rapidly increasing volume of online data and the diverse analysis requirements of related stakeholders. As a solution for utilizing large-scale health-related information, we propose a novel approach to identify hospital service quality factors and overtime trends automatically from online health communities, especially hospital-related questions and answers. We defined social media-based key quality factors for hospitals. In addition, we developed text mining techniques to detect such factors that frequently occur in online health communities. After detecting these factors that represent qualitative aspects of hospitals, we applied a sentiment analysis to recognize the types of recommendations in messages posted within online health communities. Korea's two biggest online portals were used to test the effectiveness of detection of social media-based key quality factors for hospitals. To evaluate the proposed text mining techniques, we performed manual evaluations on the extraction and classification results, such as hospital name, service quality factors, and recommendation types using a random sample of messages (ie, 5.44% (9450/173,748) of the total messages). Service quality factor detection and hospital name extraction achieved average F1 scores of 91% and 78%, respectively. In terms of recommendation classification, performance (ie, precision) is 78% on average. Extraction and

Enhanced Two-Factor Authentication and Key Agreement Using Dynamic Identities in Wireless Sensor Networks.

PubMed

Chang, I-Pin; Lee, Tian-Fu; Lin, Tsung-Hung; Liu, Chuan-Ming

2015-11-30

Key agreements that use only password authentication are convenient in communication networks, but these key agreement schemes often fail to resist possible attacks, and therefore provide poor security compared with some other authentication schemes. To increase security, many authentication and key agreement schemes use smartcard authentication in addition to passwords. Thus, two-factor authentication and key agreement schemes using smartcards and passwords are widely adopted in many applications. Vaidya et al. recently presented a two-factor authentication and key agreement scheme for wireless sensor networks (WSNs). Kim et al. observed that the Vaidya et al. scheme fails to resist gateway node bypassing and user impersonation attacks, and then proposed an improved scheme for WSNs. This study analyzes the weaknesses of the two-factor authentication and key agreement scheme of Kim et al., which include vulnerability to impersonation attacks, lost smartcard attacks and man-in-the-middle attacks, violation of session key security, and failure to protect user privacy. An efficient and secure authentication and key agreement scheme for WSNs based on the scheme of Kim et al. is then proposed. The proposed scheme not only solves the weaknesses of previous approaches, but also increases security requirements while maintaining low computational cost.

Enhanced Two-Factor Authentication and Key Agreement Using Dynamic Identities in Wireless Sensor Networks

PubMed Central

Chang, I-Pin; Lee, Tian-Fu; Lin, Tsung-Hung; Liu, Chuan-Ming

2015-01-01

Key agreements that use only password authentication are convenient in communication networks, but these key agreement schemes often fail to resist possible attacks, and therefore provide poor security compared with some other authentication schemes. To increase security, many authentication and key agreement schemes use smartcard authentication in addition to passwords. Thus, two-factor authentication and key agreement schemes using smartcards and passwords are widely adopted in many applications. Vaidya et al. recently presented a two-factor authentication and key agreement scheme for wireless sensor networks (WSNs). Kim et al. observed that the Vaidya et al. scheme fails to resist gateway node bypassing and user impersonation attacks, and then proposed an improved scheme for WSNs. This study analyzes the weaknesses of the two-factor authentication and key agreement scheme of Kim et al., which include vulnerability to impersonation attacks, lost smartcard attacks and man-in-the-middle attacks, violation of session key security, and failure to protect user privacy. An efficient and secure authentication and key agreement scheme for WSNs based on the scheme of Kim et al. is then proposed. The proposed scheme not only solves the weaknesses of previous approaches, but also increases security requirements while maintaining low computational cost. PMID:26633396

Indigenous Health and Climate Change

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Indigenous populations have been identified as vulnerable to climate change. This framing, however, is detached from the diverse geographies of how people experience, understand, and respond to climate-related health outcomes, and overlooks nonclimatic determinants. I reviewed research on indigenous health and climate change to capture place-based dimensions of vulnerability and broader determining factors. Studies focused primarily on Australia and the Arctic, and indicated significant adaptive capacity, with active responses to climate-related health risks. However, nonclimatic stresses including poverty, land dispossession, globalization, and associated sociocultural transitions challenge this adaptability. Addressing geographic gaps in existing studies alongside greater focus on indigenous conceptualizations on and approaches to health, examination of global–local interactions shaping local vulnerability, enhanced surveillance, and an evaluation of policy support opportunities are key foci for future research. PMID:22594718

Progress in Australian dendroclimatology: Identifying growth limiting factors in four climate zones.

PubMed

Haines, Heather A; Olley, Jon M; Kemp, Justine; English, Nathan B

2016-12-01

Dendroclimatology can be used to better understand past climate in regions such as Australia where instrumental and historical climate records are sparse and rarely extend beyond 100years. Here we review 36 Australian dendroclimatic studies which cover the four major climate zones of Australia; temperate, arid, subtropical and tropical. We show that all of these zones contain tree and shrub species which have the potential to provide high quality records of past climate. Despite this potential only four dendroclimatic reconstructions have been published for Australia, one from each of the climate zones: A 3592year temperature record for the SE-temperate zone, a 350year rainfall record for the Western arid zone, a 140year rainfall record for the northern tropics and a 146year rainfall record for SE-subtropics. We report on the spatial distribution of tree-ring studies, the environmental variables identified as limiting tree growth in each study, and identify the key challenges in using tree-ring records for climate reconstruction in Australia. We show that many Australian species have yet to be tested for dendroclimatological potential, and that the application of newer techniques including isotopic analysis, carbon dating, wood density measurements, and anatomical analysis, combined with traditional ring-width measurements should enable more species in each of the climate zones to be used, and long-term climate records to be developed across the entire continent. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Survey data on key climate and environmental drivers of farmers' migration in Burkina Faso, West Africa.

PubMed

Sanfo, Safiétou; Fonta, M William; Boubacar, Ibrahim; Lamers, P A John

2016-12-01

This article describes two datasets generated from various sources in south western Burkina Faso to identify the key climate and environmental drivers that cause farmers to migrate. The survey sampling is random but reasoned and rational. The first dataset from 367 farm households contains data on farmers' perception of climate change risks or hazards, their impacts on farmland productivity and farm households' risk management strategies. The second dataset from 58 farm households contains data on agricultural practices, environmental changes, and environmental migration. Three supplemental Excel sheets show the results of the surveys. Details on the sample as well as further interpretation and discussion of the surveys are available in the associated research article ('Field Facts for Crop Insurance Design: Empirical Evidence from South Western Burkina Faso' (W. M. Fonta, S. Sanfo, B. Ibrahim, B. Barry, 2015) [1]).

Multilevel multi-informant structure of the authoritative school climate survey.

PubMed

Konold, Timothy; Cornell, Dewey; Huang, Francis; Meyer, Patrick; Lacey, Anna; Nekvasil, Erin; Heilbrun, Anna; Shukla, Kathan

2014-09-01

The Authoritative School Climate Survey was designed to provide schools with a brief assessment of 2 key characteristics of school climate--disciplinary structure and student support--that are hypothesized to influence 2 important school climate outcomes--student engagement and prevalence of teasing and bullying in school. The factor structure of these 4 constructs was examined with exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses in a statewide sample of 39,364 students (Grades 7 and 8) attending 423 schools. Notably, the analyses used a multilevel structural approach to model the nesting of students in schools for purposes of evaluating factor structure, demonstrating convergent and concurrent validity and gauging the structural invariance of concurrent validity coefficients across gender. These findings provide schools with a core group of school climate measures guided by authoritative discipline theory. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

Academic Social Climate--A Key Aspect in Architectural Studies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Davidovitch, Nitza; Casakin, Hernan

2015-01-01

The present research investigates academic social climate in architectural studies as perceived by students. It studies the importance that the various measures of academic social climate have in the studio and in architectural classes. It also investigates the relation between the personal background of students and their sense of academic social…

Safety climate in university and college laboratories: impact of organizational and individual factors.

PubMed

Wu, Tsung-Chih; Liu, Chi-Wei; Lu, Mu-Chen

2007-01-01

Universities and colleges serve to be institutions of education excellence; however, problems in the areas of occupational safety may undermine such goals. Occupational safety must be the concern of every employee in the organization, regardless of job position. Safety climate surveys have been suggested as important tools for measuring the effectiveness and improvement direction of safety programs. Thus, this study aims to investigate the influence of organizational and individual factors on safety climate in university and college laboratories. Employees at 100 universities and colleges in Taiwan were mailed a self-administered questionnaire survey; the response rate was 78%. Multivariate analysis of variance revealed that organizational category of ownership, the presence of a safety manager and safety committee, gender, age, title, accident experience, and safety training significantly affected the climate. Among them, accident experience and safety training affected the climate with practical significance. The authors recommend that managers should address important factors affecting safety issues and then create a positive climate by enforcing continuous improvements.

Protective Factors, Campus Climate, and Health Outcomes among Sexual Minority College Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Woodford, Michael R.; Kulick, Alex; Atteberry, Brittanie

2015-01-01

Heterosexism on campus can create a chilly climate for sexual minority students. Research has documented the negative impacts of campus climate on sexual minority students' health; however, little research has examined the role of potential protective factors among this population. Drawing on data collected from self-identified sexual minority…

Changes in Land Cover and Terrestrial Biogeochemistry in the US: Key Findings from the Climate Science Special Report (CSSR)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hibbard, K. A.; Hoffman, F. M.; Huntzinger, D. N.; West, T. O.

2017-12-01

The continual increase in annual average temperatures (1.0°C for the period 1901-2016 for the contiguous US), growing number of high temperature records, increasing intensity and frequency of heavy precipitation events in most parts of the US, and rising global mean sea level are among the key findings from the forthcoming Climate Science Special Report (CSSR) produced by the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). A chapter new to the climate science assessments directly addresses the feedbacks between climate change, land use and land cover change, and the carbon cycle. While the terrestrial biosphere is presently a net carbon sink, which has steadily increased since 1980, the future sign and magnitude of biosphere uptake cannot be determined because of uncertainties in the future trajectory of land cover and land use. Citing recent research, the chapter highlights that the combined effects of land use and land cover changes due to human activities account for 40% ± 16% of the human-caused global radiative forcing from 1850 to present. Moverover, plant community structure has already been altered by climate change and changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events. Changes in temperature also have direct effects on the land surface as well as feedbacks to the atmosphere. For example, the number of consecutive frost-free days and the length of the growing season have increased across all regions in the contiguous US; however, overall plant productivity has been limited by biotic factors and seasonal limitations in water and nutrient availability. Within cities, the urban heat island (UHI) effect results in daytime temperatures 0.5°C-4.0°C higher and nighttime temperatures 1.0°C-2.5°C higher in urban areas than surrounding rural areas. We discuss terrestrial and biogeochemical forcings and feedbacks that can serve as critical evaluation and paramaterization datasets for Earth system modeling approaches with implications for management of

A history of the science and politics of climate change: the role of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bolin, B.

2007-11-15

In response to growing concern about human-induced global climate change, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was formed in 1988. Written by its first Chairman, this book is a unique overview of the history of the IPCC. It describes and evaluates the intricate interplay between key factors in the science and politics of climate change, the strategy that has been followed, and the regretfully slow pace in getting to grips with the uncertainties that have prevented earlier action being taken. The book also highlights the emerging conflict between establishing a sustainable global energy system and preventing a seriousmore » change in global climate. Contents are: Part I. The Early History of the Climate Change Issue: 1. Nineteenth century discoveries; 2. The natural carbon cycle and life on earth; 3. Global research initiatives in meteorology and climatology; 4. Early international assessments of climate change; Part II. The Climate Change Issue Becomes One of Global Concern: 5. Setting the stage; 6. The scientific basis for a climate convention; 7. Serving the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee; 8. The Second IPP Assessment Report; 9. In the aftermath of the IPCC Second Assessment; 10. The Kyoto Protocol is agreed and a third assessment begun; 11. A decade of hesitance and slow progress; Part III. A Turning Point in Addressing Climate Change?: 12. Key scientific finding of prime political relevance; 13. Climate change and the future global energy supply system; Concluding remarks. 9 figs.« less

Improving the Representation of Land in Climate Models by Application of EOS Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2004-01-01

The PI's IDS current and previous investigation has focused on the applications of the land data toward the improvement of climate models. The previous IDS research identified the key factors limiting the accuracy of climate models to be the representation of albedos, land cover, fraction of landscape covered by vegetation, roughness lengths, surface skin temperature and canopy properties such as leaf area index (LAI) and average stomatal conductance. Therefore, we assembled a team uniquely situated to focus on these key variables and incorporate the remotely sensed measures of these variables into the next generation of climate models.

Identification of the key ecological factors influencing vegetation degradation in semi-arid agro-pastoral ecotone considering spatial scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, Yu; Wang, Qinghui; Fan, Min

2017-11-01

When assessing re-vegetation project performance and optimizing land management, identification of the key ecological factors inducing vegetation degradation has crucial implications. Rainfall, temperature, elevation, slope, aspect, land use type, and human disturbance are ecological factors affecting the status of vegetation index. However, at different spatial scales, the key factors may vary. Using Helin County, Inner-Mongolia, China as the study site and combining remote sensing image interpretation, field surveying, and mathematical methods, this study assesses key ecological factors affecting vegetation degradation under different spatial scales in a semi-arid agro-pastoral ecotone. It indicates that the key factors are different at various spatial scales. Elevation, rainfall, and temperature are identified as crucial for all spatial extents. Elevation, rainfall and human disturbance are key factors for small-scale quadrats of 300 m × 300 m and 600 m × 600 m, temperature and land use type are key factors for a medium-scale quadrat of 1 km × 1 km, and rainfall, temperature, and land use are key factors for large-scale quadrats of 2 km × 2 km and 5 km × 5 km. For this region, human disturbance is not the key factor for vegetation degradation across spatial scales. It is necessary to consider spatial scale for the identification of key factors determining vegetation characteristics. The eco-restoration programs at various spatial scales should identify key influencing factors according their scales so as to take effective measurements. The new understanding obtained in this study may help to explore the forces which driving vegetation degradation in the degraded regions in the world.

SCOR based key success factors in cooking oil supply chain buyers perspective in Padang City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zahara, Fatimah; Hadiguna, Rika Ampuh

2017-11-01

Supply chain of cooking oil is a network of companies from palm oil as raw material to retailers which work to create the value and deliver products into the end consumers. This paper is aimed to study key success factors based on consumer's perspective as the last stage in the supply chain. Consumers who are examined in this study are restaurants management or owners. Restaurant is the biggest consumption of cooking oil. The factors is studied based on Supply Chain Operation Reference (SCOR) version 10.0. Factors used are formulated based on the third-level metrics of SCOR Model. Factors are analyzed using factors analysis. This study found factors which become key success factors in managing supply chain of cooking oil encompass reliability, responsiveness and agility. Key success factors can be applied by governments as policy making and cooking oil companies as formulation of the distribution strategies.

Potential impacts of climate change on soil erosion vulnerability across the conterminous United States

Treesearch

C. Segura; G. Sun; S. McNulty; Y. Zhang

2014-01-01

Rainfall runoff erosivity (R) is one key climate factor that controls water erosion. Quantifying the effects of climate change-induced erosivity change is important for identifying critical regions prone to soil erosion under a changing environment. In this study we first evaluate the changes of R from 1970 to 2090 across the United States under nine climate conditions...

Species-specific responses to climate change and community composition determine future calcification rates of Florida Keys reefs.

PubMed

Okazaki, Remy R; Towle, Erica K; van Hooidonk, Ruben; Mor, Carolina; Winter, Rivah N; Piggot, Alan M; Cunning, Ross; Baker, Andrew C; Klaus, James S; Swart, Peter K; Langdon, Chris

2017-03-01

Anthropogenic climate change compromises reef growth as a result of increasing temperatures and ocean acidification. Scleractinian corals vary in their sensitivity to these variables, suggesting species composition will influence how reef communities respond to future climate change. Because data are lacking for many species, most studies that model future reef growth rely on uniform scleractinian calcification sensitivities to temperature and ocean acidification. To address this knowledge gap, calcification of twelve common and understudied Caribbean coral species was measured for two months under crossed temperatures (27, 30.3 °C) and CO 2 partial pressures (pCO 2 ) (400, 900, 1300 μatm). Mixed-effects models of calcification for each species were then used to project community-level scleractinian calcification using Florida Keys reef composition data and IPCC AR5 ensemble climate model data. Three of the four most abundant species, Orbicella faveolata, Montastraea cavernosa, and Porites astreoides, had negative calcification responses to both elevated temperature and pCO 2 . In the business-as-usual CO 2 emissions scenario, reefs with high abundances of these species had projected end-of-century declines in scleractinian calcification of >50% relative to present-day rates. Siderastrea siderea, the other most common species, was insensitive to both temperature and pCO 2 within the levels tested here. Reefs dominated by this species had the most stable end-of-century growth. Under more optimistic scenarios of reduced CO 2 emissions, calcification rates throughout the Florida Keys declined <20% by 2100. Under the most extreme emissions scenario, projected declines were highly variable among reefs, ranging 10-100%. Without considering bleaching, reef growth will likely decline on most reefs, especially where resistant species like S. siderea are not already dominant. This study demonstrates how species composition influences reef community responses to climate

Effects of climate change on environmental factors in respiratory allergic diseases.

PubMed

D'Amato, G; Cecchi, L

2008-08-01

A body of evidence suggests that major changes involving the atmosphere and the climate, including global warming induced by human activity, have an impact on the biosphere and the human environment. Studies on the effects of climate change on respiratory allergy are still lacking and current knowledge is provided by epidemiological and experimental studies on the relationship between asthma and environmental factors, such as meteorological variables, airborne allergens and air pollution. However, there is also considerable evidence that subjects affected by asthma are at an increased risk of developing obstructive airway exacerbations with exposure to gaseous and particulate components of air pollution. It is not easy to evaluate the impact of climate change and air pollution on the prevalence of asthma in general and on the timing of asthma exacerbations. However, the global rise in asthma prevalence and severity suggests that air pollution and climate changes could be contributing. Pollen allergy is frequently used to study the interrelationship between air pollution, rhinitis and bronchial asthma. Epidemiological studies have demonstrated that urbanization, high levels of vehicle emissions and westernized lifestyle are correlated to an increase in the frequency of pollen-induced respiratory allergy, prevalent in people who live in urban areas compared with those who live in rural areas. Meteorological factors (temperature, wind speed, humidity, etc.) along with their climatological regimes (warm or cold anomalies and dry or wet periods, etc.), can affect both biological and chemical components of this interaction. In addition, by inducing airway inflammation, air pollution overcomes the mucosal barrier priming allergen-induced responses. In conclusion, climate change might induce negative effects on respiratory allergic diseases. In particular, the increased length and severity of the pollen season, the higher occurrence of heavy precipitation events and the

Climate change: potential implications for Ireland's biodiversity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donnelly, Alison

2018-03-01

A national biodiversity and climate change adaptation plan is being developed for Ireland by the Department of Communications, Climate Action, and Environment. In order to inform such a plan, it was necessary to review and synthesize some of the recent literature pertaining to the impact of climate change on biodiversity in Ireland. Published research on this topic fell within three broad categories: (i) changes in the timing of life-cycle events (phenology) of plants, birds, and insects; (ii) changes in the geographic range of some bird species; and (iii) changes in the suitable climatic zones of key habitats and species. The synthesis revealed evidence of (i) a trend towards earlier spring activity of plants, birds, and insects which may result in a change in ecosystem function; (ii) an increase in the number of bird species; and (iii) both increases and decreases in the suitable climatic area of key habitats and species, all of which are expected to impact Ireland's future biodiversity. This process identified data gaps and limitations in available information both of which could be used to inform a focused research strategy. In addition, it raises awareness of the potential implications of climate change for biodiversity in Ireland and elsewhere and demonstrates the need for biodiversity conservation plans to factor climate change into future designs.

Climate change: potential implications for Ireland's biodiversity.

PubMed

Donnelly, Alison

2018-03-12

A national biodiversity and climate change adaptation plan is being developed for Ireland by the Department of Communications, Climate Action, and Environment. In order to inform such a plan, it was necessary to review and synthesize some of the recent literature pertaining to the impact of climate change on biodiversity in Ireland. Published research on this topic fell within three broad categories: (i) changes in the timing of life-cycle events (phenology) of plants, birds, and insects; (ii) changes in the geographic range of some bird species; and (iii) changes in the suitable climatic zones of key habitats and species. The synthesis revealed evidence of (i) a trend towards earlier spring activity of plants, birds, and insects which may result in a change in ecosystem function; (ii) an increase in the number of bird species; and (iii) both increases and decreases in the suitable climatic area of key habitats and species, all of which are expected to impact Ireland's future biodiversity. This process identified data gaps and limitations in available information both of which could be used to inform a focused research strategy. In addition, it raises awareness of the potential implications of climate change for biodiversity in Ireland and elsewhere and demonstrates the need for biodiversity conservation plans to factor climate change into future designs.

Temperature is the key to altitudinal variation of phenolics in Arnica montana L. cv. ARBO.

PubMed

Albert, Andreas; Sareedenchai, Vipaporn; Heller, Werner; Seidlitz, Harald K; Zidorn, Christian

2009-05-01

Plants in alpine habitats are exposed to many environmental stresses, in particular temperature and radiation extremes. Recent field experiments on Arnica montana L. cv. ARBO indicated pronounced altitudinal variation in plant phenolics. Ortho-diphenolics increased with altitude compared to other phenolic compounds, resulting in an increase in antioxidative capacity of the tissues involved. Factors causing these variations were investigated by climate chamber (CC) experiments focusing on temperature and ultraviolet (UV)-B radiation. Plants of A. montana L. cv. ARBO were grown in CCs under realistic climatic and radiation regimes. Key factors temperature and UV-B radiation were altered between different groups of plants. Subsequently, flowering heads were analyzed by HPLC for their contents of flavonoids and caffeic acid derivatives. Surprisingly, increased UV-B radiation did not trigger any change in phenolic metabolites in Arnica. In contrast, a pronounced increase in the ratio of B-ring ortho-diphenolic (quercetin) compared to B-ring monophenolic (kaempferol) flavonols resulted from a decrease in temperature by 5 degrees C in the applied climate regime. In conclusion, enhanced UV-B radiation is probably not the key factor triggering shifts in the phenolic composition in Arnica grown at higher altitudes but rather temperature, which decreases with altitude.

Teachers' Professional Development: What Are the Key Change Factors for Mathematics Teachers?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pehkonen, Erkki; Torner, Gunter

1999-01-01

Surveyed and interviewed 13 experienced German middle school mathematics teachers to examine key factors causing discontinuity in their professional development. Results included 49 statements about change that fell into four categories. Researchers extracted three change factors not reported in earlier literature: experiences and observations…

[Preliminary study on the effect of climate factors on pollen fertility in Platycodon grandiflorum].

PubMed

Shi, Feng-hua; Zhang, Lei; Wei, Jian-he

2011-06-01

To have a better utilization of male sterile lines in heterozygotic breeding of Platycodon grandiflorum and provide theoretical basis for Platycodon grandiflorum hyboridization. The pollen viability was detected by the means of aceto carmine dyeing, and the correlation analysis between climate factors of each anther development stage and pollen viability was estimated by Pearson coefficients. Pollen viability variation range of male-sterile line GP1BC1-12 was 0% - 27%. That of male-sterile line GP12BC4-10 and chifeng germplasm was respectively 1.3% - 17.9% and 75.9% - 98.5%. Further linear regression analysis between climate factors of each anther development stage and pollen viability indicated that the degree of sensitivity varied with different germplasm of Platycodon grandiflorum. Among three germplasm, male sterile line GP12BC4-10 was the most stable one to the climate factors, and the male-sterile line GP1BC1-12 was the most sensitive one. Temperature and solar irradiation are the most important climate factors to affect pollen viability in Platycodon grandflorum, and microspore mother cells stage (MMC) is its sensetive stage.

Graduate Entrepreneurship Incubation Environments: A Framework of Key Success Factors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Al-Dajani, Haya; Dedoussis, Evangelos; Watson, Erika; Tzokas, Nikalaos

2014-01-01

The benchmarking framework developed in this study is specifically designed for higher education institutions to consider when developing environments to encourage entrepreneurship among their students, graduates and staff. The objective of the study was to identify key success factors of Graduate Entrepreneurship Incubator Environments (GEIEs)…

Educational Faculty Perceptions of the Learning Climate in a Juvenile Justice Residential Facility

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cox, Carolyn; Visker, Joseph; Hartman, Ashley

2011-01-01

The majority of educational faculty from a juvenile justice residential detention facility in rural Northeast Missouri who participated in a learning climate survey of their school seemed to agree that the environment for staff and students was generally physically safe and emotionally supportive; key factors for a positive learning climate. By…

Family climates: family factors specific to disturbed eating and bulimia nervosa.

PubMed

Laliberté, M; Boland, F J; Leichner, P

1999-09-01

More than a decade of research has characterized the families of individuals with bulimia and bulimia anorexia (Anorexia Nervosa, Binge/Purging Type) as less expressive, less cohesive, and experiencing more conflicts than normal control families. This two-part study investigated variables believed more directly related to disturbed eating and bulimia as contributing to a "family climate for eating disorders." In Study 1. a nonclinical sample of 324 women who had just left home for college and a sample of 121 mothers evaluated their families. Principal-components analyses revealed the same factor structure for both students and mothers, with Family Body Satisfaction, Family Social Appearance Orientation, and Family Achievement Emphasis loading together, representing the hypothesized family climate for eating disorders: the remaining variables loaded with the more traditional family process variables (conflict, cohesion, expressiveness), representing a more general family dysfunction. As predicted, the family climate for eating disorders factor score was a more powerful predictor of disturbed eating. Study 2 extended these findings into a clin ical population, examining whether the family climate for eating disorders variables would distinguish individuals with bulimia from both depressed and healthy controls. Groups of eating-disordered patients (n = 40) and depressed (n = 17) and healthy (n = 27) controls completed family measures. The eating-disordered group scored significantly higher on family climate variables than control groups. Family process variables distinguished clinical groups (depressed and eating disordered) from healthy controls, but not from one another. Controlling for depression removed group differences on family process variables, but family climate variables continued to distinguish the eating-disordered group from both control groups. Indications for further research are discussed.

Identifying Key Drivers of Return Reversal with Dynamical Bayesian Factor Graph

PubMed Central

Zhao, Shuai; Tong, Yunhai; Wang, Zitian; Tan, Shaohua

2016-01-01

In the stock market, return reversal occurs when investors sell overbought stocks and buy oversold stocks, reversing the stocks’ price trends. In this paper, we develop a new method to identify key drivers of return reversal by incorporating a comprehensive set of factors derived from different economic theories into one unified dynamical Bayesian factor graph. We then use the model to depict factor relationships and their dynamics, from which we make some interesting discoveries about the mechanism behind return reversals. Through extensive experiments on the US stock market, we conclude that among the various factors, the liquidity factors consistently emerge as key drivers of return reversal, which is in support of the theory of liquidity effect. Specifically, we find that stocks with high turnover rates or high Amihud illiquidity measures have a greater probability of experiencing return reversals. Apart from the consistent drivers, we find other drivers of return reversal that generally change from year to year, and they serve as important characteristics for evaluating the trends of stock returns. Besides, we also identify some seldom discussed yet enlightening inter-factor relationships, one of which shows that stocks in Finance and Insurance industry are more likely to have high Amihud illiquidity measures in comparison with those in other industries. These conclusions are robust for return reversals under different thresholds. PMID:27893780

Identifying Key Drivers of Return Reversal with Dynamical Bayesian Factor Graph.

PubMed

Zhao, Shuai; Tong, Yunhai; Wang, Zitian; Tan, Shaohua

2016-01-01

In the stock market, return reversal occurs when investors sell overbought stocks and buy oversold stocks, reversing the stocks' price trends. In this paper, we develop a new method to identify key drivers of return reversal by incorporating a comprehensive set of factors derived from different economic theories into one unified dynamical Bayesian factor graph. We then use the model to depict factor relationships and their dynamics, from which we make some interesting discoveries about the mechanism behind return reversals. Through extensive experiments on the US stock market, we conclude that among the various factors, the liquidity factors consistently emerge as key drivers of return reversal, which is in support of the theory of liquidity effect. Specifically, we find that stocks with high turnover rates or high Amihud illiquidity measures have a greater probability of experiencing return reversals. Apart from the consistent drivers, we find other drivers of return reversal that generally change from year to year, and they serve as important characteristics for evaluating the trends of stock returns. Besides, we also identify some seldom discussed yet enlightening inter-factor relationships, one of which shows that stocks in Finance and Insurance industry are more likely to have high Amihud illiquidity measures in comparison with those in other industries. These conclusions are robust for return reversals under different thresholds.

[Correlations between climate change-related infectious diseases and meteorological factors in Korea].

PubMed

Kim, Si Heon; Jang, Jae Yeon

2010-09-01

Infectious diseases are known to be affected by climate change. We investigated if the infectious diseases were related to meteorological factors in Korea. Scrub typhus, hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), leptospirosis, malaria and Vibrio vulnificus sepsis among the National Notifiable Infectious Diseases were selected as the climate change-related infectious diseases. Temperature, relative humidity and precipitation were used as meteorological factors. The study period was from 2001 through 2008. We examined the seasonality of the diseases and those correlations with meteorological factors. We also analyzed the correlations between the incidences of the diseases during the outbreak periods and monthly meteorological factors in the hyper-endemic regions. All of the investigated diseases showed strong seasonality; malaria and V. vulnificus sepsis were prevalent in summer and scrub typhus, HFRS and leptospirosis were prevalent in the autumn. There were significant correlations between the monthly numbers of cases and all the meteorological factors for malaria and V. vulnificus sepsis, but there were no correlation for the other diseases. However, the incidence of scrub typhus in hyper-endemic region during the outbreak period was positively correlated with temperature and humidity during the summer. The incidences of HFRS and leptospirosis had positive correlations with precipitation in November and temperature and humidity in February, respectively. V. vulnificus sepsis showed positive correlations with precipitation in April/May/July. In Korea, the incidences of the infectious diseases were correlated with meteorological factors, and this implies that the incidences could be influenced by climate change.

School climate factors contributing to student and faculty perceptions of safety in select Arizona schools.

PubMed

Bosworth, Kris; Ford, Lysbeth; Hernandaz, Diley

2011-04-01

To ensure that schools are safe places where students can learn, researchers and educators must understand student and faculty safety concerns. This study examines student and teacher perceptions of school safety. Twenty-two focus groups with students and faculty were conducted in 11 secondary schools. Schools were selected from a stratified sample to vary in location, proximity to Indian reservations, size, and type. The data analysis was based on grounded theory. In 9 of 11 schools, neither faculty nor students voiced overwhelming concerns about safety. When asked what makes school safe, students tended to report physical security features. School climate and staff actions also increased feelings of safety. Faculty reported that relationships and climate are key factors in making schools safe. High student performance on standardized tests does not buffer students from unsafe behavior, nor does living in a dangerous neighborhood necessarily lead to more drug use or violence within school walls. School climate seemed to explain the difference between schools in which students and faculty reported higher versus lower levels of violence and alcohol and other drug use. The findings raise provocative questions about school safety and provide insight into elements that lead to perceptions of safety. Some schools have transcended issues of location and neighborhood to provide an environment perceived as safe. Further study of those schools could provide insights for policy makers, program planners, and educational leaders. © 2011, American School Health Association.

School Climate Improvement Action Guide for Working with Students. School Climate Improvement Resource Package

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Center on Safe Supportive Learning Environments, 2017

2017-01-01

Improving school climate takes time and commitment from a variety of people in a variety of roles. This document outlines key action steps to engage students in the school climate improvement process. Key action steps are provided for the following strategies: (1) Participate in planning for school climate improvements; (2) Engage stakeholders in…

Climatic factors influencing triatomine occurrence in Central-West Brazil

PubMed Central

Pereira, Joyce Mendes; de Almeida, Paulo Silva; de Sousa, Adair Vieira; de Paula, Aécio Moraes; Machado, Ricardo Bomfim; Gurgel-Gonçalves, Rodrigo

2013-01-01

We estimated the geographic distributions of triatomine species in Central-West Region of Brazil (CW) and analysed the climatic factors influencing their occurrence. A total of 3,396 records of 27 triatomine species were analysed. Using the maximum entropy method, ecological niche models were produced for eight species occurring in at least 20 municipalities based on 13 climatic variables and elevation. Triatoma sordida and Rhodnius neglectus were the species with the broadest geographic distributions in CW Brazil. The Cerrado areas in the state of Goiás were found to be more suitable for the occurrence of synanthropic triatomines than the Amazon forest areas in the northern part of the state of Mato Grosso. The variable that best explains the evaluated models is temperature seasonality. The results indicate that almost the entire region presents climatic conditions that are appropriate for at least one triatomine species. Therefore, it is recommended that entomological surveillance be reinforced in CW Brazil. PMID:23778666

[Wave-type time series variation of the correlation between NDVI and climatic factors].

PubMed

Bi, Xiaoli; Wang, Hui; Ge, Jianping

2005-02-01

Based on the 1992-1996 data of 1 km monthly NDVI and those of the monthly precipitation and mean temperature collected by 400 standard meteorological stations in China, this paper analyzed the temporal and spatial dynamic changes of the correlation between NDVI and climatic factors in different climate districts of this country. The results showed that there was a significant correlation between monthly precipitations and NDVI. The wave-type time series model could simulate well the temporal dynamic changes of the correlation between NDVI and climatic factors, and the simulated results of the correlation between NDVI and precipitation was better than that between NDVI and temperature. The correlation coefficients (R2) were 0.91 and 0.86, respectively for the whole country.

Climate Controls AM Fungal Distributions from Global to Local Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kivlin, S. N.; Hawkes, C.; Muscarella, R.; Treseder, K. K.; Kazenel, M.; Lynn, J.; Rudgers, J.

2016-12-01

Arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi have key functions in terrestrial biogeochemical processes; thus, determining the relative importance of climate, edaphic factors, and plant community composition on their geographic distributions can improve predictions of their sensitivity to global change. Local adaptation by AM fungi to plant hosts, soil nutrients, and climate suggests that all of these factors may control fungal geographic distributions, but their relative importance is unknown. We created species distribution models for 142 AM fungal taxa at the global scale with data from GenBank. We compared climate variables (BioClim and soil moisture), edaphic variables (phosphorus, carbon, pH, and clay content), and plant variables using model selection on models with (1) all variables, (2) climatic variables only (including soil moisture) and (3) resource-related variables only (all other soil parameters and NPP) using the MaxEnt algorithm evaluated with ENMEval. We also evaluated whether drivers of AM fungal distributions were phylogenetically conserved. To test whether global correlates of AM fungal distributions were reflected at local scales, we then surveyed AM fungi in nine plant hosts along three elevation gradients in the Upper Gunnison Basin, Colorado, USA. At the global scale, the distributions of 55% of AM fungal taxa were affected by both climate and soil resources, whereas 16% were only affected by climate and 29% were only affected by soil resources. Even for AM fungi that were affected by both climate and resources, the effects of climatic variables nearly always outweighed those of resources. Soil moisture and isothermality were the main climatic and NPP and soil carbon the main resource related factors influencing AM fungal distributions. Distributions of closely related AM fungal taxa were similarly affected by climate, but not by resources. Local scale surveys of AM fungi across elevations confirmed that climate was a key driver of AM fungal

Forest-stressing climate factors on the US West Coast as simulated by CMIP5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rupp, D. E.; Buotte, P.; Hicke, J. A.; Law, B. E.; Mote, P.; Sharp, D.; Zhenlin, Y.

2013-12-01

The rate of forest mortality has increased significantly in western North America since the 1970s. Causes include insect attacks, fire, and soil water deficit, all of which are interdependent. We first identify climate factors that stress forests by reducing photosynthesis and hydraulic conductance, and by promoting bark beetle infestation and wildfire. Examples of such factors may be two consecutive years of extreme summer precipitation deficit, or prolonged vapor pressure deficit exceeding some threshold. Second, we quantify the frequency and magnitude of these climate factors in 20th and 21st century climates, as simulated by global climate models (GCMs) in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), of Washington, Oregon, and California in the western US. Both ';raw' (i.e., original spatial resolution) and statistically downscaled simulations are considered, the latter generated using the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) method. CMIP5 models that most faithfully reproduce the observed historical statistics of these climate factors are identified. Furthermore, significant changes in the statistics between the 20th and 21st centuries are reported. A subsequent task will be to use a selected subset of MACA-downscaled CMIP5 simulations to force the Community Land Model, version 4.5 (CLM 4.5). CLM 4.5 will be modified to better simulate forest mortality and to couple CLM with an economic model. The ultimate goal of this study is to understand the interactions and the feedbacks by which the market and the forest ecosystem influence each other.

Lakes as sentinels of climate change

PubMed Central

Adrian, Rita; O’Reilly, Catherine M.; Zagarese, Horacio; Baines, Stephen B.; Hessen, Dag O.; Keller, Wendel; Livingstone, David M.; Sommaruga, Ruben; Straile, Dietmar; Van Donk, Ellen; Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A.; Winder, Monika

2010-01-01

While there is a general sense that lakes can act as sentinels of climate change, their efficacy has not been thoroughly analyzed. We identified the key response variables within a lake that act as indicators of the effects of climate change on both the lake and the catchment. These variables reflect a wide range of physical, chemical, and biological responses to climate. However, the efficacy of the different indicators is affected by regional response to climate change, characteristics of the catchment, and lake mixing regimes. Thus, particular indicators or combinations of indicators are more effective for different lake types and geographic regions. The extraction of climate signals can be further complicated by the influence of other environmental changes, such as eutrophication or acidification, and the equivalent reverse phenomena, in addition to other land-use influences. In many cases, however, confounding factors can be addressed through analytical tools such as detrending or filtering. Lakes are effective sentinels for climate change because they are sensitive to climate, respond rapidly to change, and integrate information about changes in the catchment. PMID:20396409

Part II--Factors Associated with School Nurse Ratios: Key State Informants' Perceptions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Maughan, Erin

2009-01-01

This paper is the second of a two-part series examining factors influencing school nurse to pupil staffing ratios. The paper reports data from a qualitative study exploring the social and political factors that potentially influence ratios. Interviews were conducted with 30 key state informants from these states. Content analysis of the data…

Key success factors of health research centers: A mixed method study.

PubMed

Tofighi, Shahram; Teymourzadeh, Ehsan; Heydari, Majid

2017-08-01

In order to achieve success in future goals and activities, health research centers are required to identify their key success factors. This study aimed to extract and rank the factors affecting the success of research centers at one of the medical universities in Iran. This study is a mixed method (qualitative-quantitative) study, which was conducted between May to October in 2016. The study setting was 22 health research centers. In qualitative phase, we extracted the factors affecting the success in research centers through purposeful interviews with 10 experts of centers, and classified them into themes and sub-themes. In the quantitative phase, we prepared a questionnaire and scored and ranked the factors recognized by 54 of the study samples by Friedman test. Nine themes and 42 sub-themes were identified. Themes included: strategic orientation, management, human capital, support, projects, infrastructure, communications and collaboration, paradigm and innovation and they were rated respectively as components of success in research centers. Among the 42 identified factors, 10 factors were ranked respectively as the key factors of success, and included: science and technology road map, strategic plan, evaluation indexes, committed human resources, scientific evaluation of members and centers, innovation in research and implementation, financial support, capable researchers, equipment infrastructure and teamwork. According to the results, the strategic orientation was the most important component in the success of research centers. Therefore, managers and authorities of research centers should pay more attention to strategic areas in future planning, including the science and technology road map and strategic plan.

Key success factors of health research centers: A mixed method study

PubMed Central

Tofighi, Shahram; Teymourzadeh, Ehsan; Heydari, Majid

2017-01-01

Background In order to achieve success in future goals and activities, health research centers are required to identify their key success factors. Objective This study aimed to extract and rank the factors affecting the success of research centers at one of the medical universities in Iran. Methods This study is a mixed method (qualitative-quantitative) study, which was conducted between May to October in 2016. The study setting was 22 health research centers. In qualitative phase, we extracted the factors affecting the success in research centers through purposeful interviews with 10 experts of centers, and classified them into themes and sub-themes. In the quantitative phase, we prepared a questionnaire and scored and ranked the factors recognized by 54 of the study samples by Friedman test. Results Nine themes and 42 sub-themes were identified. Themes included: strategic orientation, management, human capital, support, projects, infrastructure, communications and collaboration, paradigm and innovation and they were rated respectively as components of success in research centers. Among the 42 identified factors, 10 factors were ranked respectively as the key factors of success, and included: science and technology road map, strategic plan, evaluation indexes, committed human resources, scientific evaluation of members and centers, innovation in research and implementation, financial support, capable researchers, equipment infrastructure and teamwork. Conclusion According to the results, the strategic orientation was the most important component in the success of research centers. Therefore, managers and authorities of research centers should pay more attention to strategic areas in future planning, including the science and technology road map and strategic plan. PMID:28979733

EG-VEGF: a key endocrine factor in placental development.

PubMed

Brouillet, Sophie; Hoffmann, Pascale; Feige, Jean-Jacques; Alfaidy, Nadia

2012-10-01

Endocrine gland-derived vascular endothelial growth factor (EG-VEGF), also named prokineticin 1, is the canonical member of the prokineticin family. Numerous reports suggest a direct involvement of this peptide in normal and pathological reproductive processes. Recent advances propose EG-VEGF as a key endocrine factor that controls many aspects of placental development and suggest its involvement in the development of preeclampsia (PE), the most threatening pathology of human pregnancy. This review describes the finely tuned action and regulation of EG-VEGF throughout human pregnancy, argues for its clinical relevance as a potential diagnostic marker of the onset of PE, and discusses future research directions for therapeutic targeting of EG-VEGF. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Key factors of clinical research network capacity building.

PubMed

Li, Guowei; Wu, Qianyu; Jin, Yanling; Vanniyasingam, Thuva; Thabane, Lehana

2018-01-01

In general, clinical research network capacity building refers to programs aimed at enhancing networks of researchers to conduct clinical research. Although in the literature there is a large body of research on how to develop and build capacity in clinical research networks, the conceptualizations and implementations remain controversial and challenging. Moreover, the experiences learnt from the past accomplishments and failures can assist in the future capacity building efforts to be more practical, effective and efficient. In this paper, we aim to provide an overview of capacity building in clinical research network by (1) identifying the key barriers to clinical research network capacity building, (2) providing insights into how to overcome those obstacles, and (3) sharing our experiences in collaborating with national and international partners to build capacity in clinical research networks. In conclusion, we have provided some insight into how to address the key factors of clinical research network capacity building and shared some empirical experiences. A successful capacity building practice requires a joint endeavor to procure sufficient resources and support from the relevant stakeholders, to ensure its efficiency, cost-effectiveness, and sustainability.

Biological and climate factors co-regulated spatial-temporal dynamics of vegetation autumn phenology on the Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zu, Jiaxing; Zhang, Yangjian; Huang, Ke; Liu, Yaojie; Chen, Ning; Cong, Nan

2018-07-01

Climate change is receiving mounting attentions from various fields and phenology is a commonly used indicator signaling vegetation responses to climate change. Previous phenology studies have mostly focused on vegetation greening-up and its climatic driving factors, while autumn phenology has been barely touched upon. In this study, vegetation phenological metrics were extracted from MODIS NDVI data and their temporal and spatial patterns were explored on the Tibetan Plateau (TP). The results showed that the start of season (SOS) has significantly earlier trend in the first decade, while the end of season (EOS) has slightly (not significant) earlier trend. In the spatial dimension, similar patterns were also identified. The SOS plays a more significant role in regulating vegetation growing season length than EOS does. The EOS and driving effects from each factor exhibited spatially heterogeneous patterns. Biological factor is the dominant factor regulating the spatial pattern of EOS, while climate factors control its inter-annual variation.

School Climate and Planned Educational Change: A Review and Critique of the Literature. Working Paper 279.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kasten, Katherine Lewellan

This paper examines the concept of school climate as a key factor in the success of planned change in elementary schools. Beginning with a general review of the literature on organizational climate and using as its basis three major reviews that appeared in the mid-1970s, the paper defines climate, examines variables that have been used as part of…

Engaging Key Stakeholders in Climate Change: A Community-Based Project for Youth-Led Participatory Climate Action

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trott, Carlie D.

Few studies have examined how youth think about, and take action on climate change and far fewer have sought to facilitate their engagement using participatory methods. This dissertation evaluated the impacts of Science, Camera, Action! (SCA), a novel after-school program that combined climate change education with participatory action through photovoice. The specific aims of this study were to: (1) Evaluate the impacts of SCA on youth participants' climate change knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors; (2) Examine how SCA participation served to empower youth agency; and (3) Explore SCA's influence on youths' science engagement. Participants were 55 youths (ages 10 to 12) across three Boys and Girls Club sites in Northern Colorado. SCA's Science component used interactive activities to demonstrate the interrelationships between Earth's changing climate, ecosystems, and sustainable actions within communities. Photovoice, SCA's Camera component, was used to explore youths' climate change perspectives and to identify opportunities for their active engagement. Finally, SCA's Action component aimed to cultivate youth potential as agents of change in their families and communities through the development and implementation of youth-led action projects. Action projects included local policy advocacy, a tree-planting campaign, a photo gallery opening, development of a website, and the establishment of a Boys and Girls Club community garden. To evaluate SCA impacts, a combination of survey and focus group methods were used. Following the program, youth demonstrated increased knowledge of the scientific and social dimensions of the causes and consequences of climate change, as well as its solutions through human action. Though participants expressed a mix of positive (e.g., hope) and negative (e.g., sadness) emotions about climate change, they left the program with an increased sense of respect for nature, an enhanced sense of environmental responsibility, and a greater sense

Identification of Key Transcription Factors Associated with Lung Squamous Cell Carcinoma

PubMed Central

Zhang, Feng; Chen, Xia; Wei, Ke; Liu, Daoming; Xu, Xiaodong; Zhang, Xing; Shi, Hong

2017-01-01

Background Lung squamous cell carcinoma (lung SCC) is a common type of lung cancer, but its mechanism of pathogenesis is unclear. The aim of this study was to identify key transcription factors in lung SCC and elucidate its mechanism. Material/Methods Six published microarray datasets of lung SCC were downloaded from Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) for integrated bioinformatics analysis. Significance analysis of microarrays was used to identify differentially expressed genes (DEGs) between lung SCC and normal controls. The biological functions and signaling pathways of DEGs were mapped in the Gene Otology and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) pathway database, respectively. A transcription factor gene regulatory network was used to obtain insights into the functions of DEGs. Results A total of 1,011 genes, including 539 upregulated genes and 462 downregulated genes, were filtered as DEGs between lung SCC and normal controls. DEGs were significantly enriched in cell cycle, DNA replication, p53 signaling pathway, pathways in cancer, adherens junction, and cell adhesion molecules signaling pathways. There were 57 transcription factors identified, which were used to construct a regulatory network. The network consisted of 736 interactions between 49 transcription factors and 486 DEGs. NFIC, BRCA1, and NFATC2 were the top 3 transcription factors that had the highest connectivity with DEGs and that regulated 83, 82, and 75 DEGs in the network, respectively. Conclusions NFIC, BRCA1, and NFATC2 might be the key transcription factors in the development of lung SCC by regulating the genes involved in cell cycle and DNA replication pathways. PMID:28081052

[Effects of future climate change on climatic suitability of flue-cured tobacco plantation in Yunnan, China.

PubMed

Hu, Xue Qiong; Xu, Meng Ying; He, Yu Qin; Zhang, Ming da; Ji, Wen Juan; Zhu, Yong

2016-04-22

The climatic suitability distribution of flue-cured tobacco planting in Yunnan will be profoundly affected by climate change. According to three key factors influencing climatic suitability of flue-cured tobacco planting in Yunnan, namely, average temperature in July, sunshine duration from July to August, precipitation from April to September, the variations of climatic suitability distribution of flue-cured tobacco planting in Yunnan respectively in 1986-2005, 2021-2040 and 2041-2060 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios were investigated by using the climatic simulation data in 1981-2060 and the meteorological observation data during 1986-2005. The results showed that climatic suitability region would expand northward and eastward and plantable area of flue-cured tobacco would gradually increase. The increment of plantable area was more in 2041-2060 than in 2021-2040, and under RCP8.5 scenario than under RCP4.5 scenario. The optimum climatic area and sub-suitable climatic area were expanded considerably, while the suitable climatic area was not much changed. In the future, the north-central Yunnan such as Kunming, Qujing, Dali, Chuxiong, Lijiang would have a big increase in both the optimum climatic area and the cultivable area, meanwhile, the southern Yunnan including Wenshan, Honghe, Puer and Xishuangbanna would have a big decrease in both the optimum climatic area and the cultivable area.

RM-DEMATEL: a new methodology to identify the key factors in PM2.5.

PubMed

Chen, Yafeng; Liu, Jie; Li, Yunpeng; Sadiq, Rehan; Deng, Yong

2015-04-01

Weather system is a relative complex dynamic system, the factors of the system are mutually influenced PM2.5 concentration. In this paper, a new method is proposed to quantify the influence on PM2.5 by other factors in the weather system and identify the most important factors for PM2.5 with limited resources. The relation map (RM) is used to figure out the direct relation matrix of 14 factors in PM2.5. The decision making trial and evaluation laboratory(DEMATEL) is applied to calculate the causal relationship and extent to a mutual influence of 14 factors in PM2.5. According to the ranking results of our proposed method, the most important key factors is sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxides (NO(X)). In addition, the other factors, the ambient maximum temperature (T(max)), concentration of PM10, and wind direction (W(dir)), are important factors for PM2.5. The proposed method can also be applied to other environment management systems to identify key factors.

Myopic Loss Aversion: Demystifying the Key Factors Influencing Decision Problem Framing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hardin, Andrew M.; Looney, Clayton Arlen

2012-01-01

Advancement of myopic loss aversion theory has been hamstrung by conflicting results, methodological inconsistencies, and a piecemeal approach toward understanding the key factors influencing decision problem framing. A series of controlled experiments provides a more holistic view of the variables promoting myopia. Extending the information…

Six Key Factors for Changing Preservice Teachers' Attitudes/Beliefs about Diversity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Garmon, M. Arthur

2005-01-01

In this article the author postulates there are six key factors associated with changing preservice teachers' attitudes toward and beliefs about diversity-their dispositions, which include openness, self-awarenesss/self-reflectiveness, and commitment to social justice; and their experiences, which include intercultural, educational, and support…

Salinity is a key factor driving the nitrogen cycling in the mangrove sediment.

PubMed

Wang, Haitao; Gilbert, Jack A; Zhu, Yongguan; Yang, Xiaoru

2018-08-01

Coastal ecosystems are hotspots for nitrogen cycling, and specifically for nitrogen removal from water and sediment through the coupled nitrification-denitrification process. Salinity is globally important in structuring bacterial and archaeal communities, but the association between salinity and microbially-mediated nitrification and denitrification remains unclear. The denitrification activity and composition and structure of microbial nitrifiers and denitrifiers were characterized across a gradient of manipulated salinity (0, 10, 20 and 30ppt) in a mangrove sediment. Salinity negatively correlated with both denitrifying activity and the abundance of nirK and nosZ denitrifying genes. Ammonia-oxidizing bacteria (AOB), which dominated nitrification, had significantly greater abundance at intermediate salinity (10 and 20ppt). However, a positive correlation between ammonia concentration and salinity suggested that nitrifying activity might also be inhibited at higher salinity. The community structure of ammonia-oxidizing archaea (AOA) and bacteria (AOB), as well as nirK, nirS and nosZ denitrifying communities, were all significantly correlated with salinity. These changes were also associated with structural shifts in phylogeny. These findings provide a strong evidence that salinity is a key factor that influences the nitrogen transformations in coastal wetlands, indicating that salinity intrusion caused by climate change might have a broader impact on the coastal biospheres. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

How do various maize crop models vary in their responses to climate change factors?

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Potential consequences of climate change on crop production can be studied using mechanistic crop simulation models. While a broad variety of maize simulation models exist, it is not known whether different models give similar grain yield responses to changes in climatic factors, or whether they agr...

Key Findings of the AMAP 2015 Assessment on Black Carbon and Tropospheric Ozone as Arctic Climate Forcers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quinn, P.

2015-12-01

The Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) established an Expert Group on Short-Lived Climate Forcers (SLCFs) in 2009 with the goal of reviewing the state of science surrounding SLCFs in the Arctic and recommending science tasks to improve the state of knowledge and its application to policy-making. In 2011, the result of the Expert Group's work was published in a technical report entitled The Impact of Black Carbon on Arctic Climate (AMAP, 2011). That report focused entirely on black carbon (BC) and co-emitted organic carbon (OC). The SLCFs Expert Group then expanded its scope to include all species co-emitted with BC as well as tropospheric ozone. An assessment report, entitled Black Carbon and Tropospheric Ozone as Arctic Climate Forcers, was published in 2015. The assessment includes summaries of measurement methods and emissions inventories of SLCFs, atmospheric transport of SLCFs to and within the Arctic, modeling methods for estimating the impact of SLCFs on Arctic climate, model-measurement inter-comparisons, trends in concentrations of SLCFs in the Arctic, and a literature review of Arctic radiative forcing and climate response. In addition, three Chemistry Climate Models and five Chemistry Transport Models were used to calculate Arctic burdens of SLCFs and precursors species, radiative forcing, and Arctic temperature response to the forcing. Radiative forcing was calculated for the direct atmospheric effect of BC, BC-snow/ice effect, and cloud indirect effects. Forcing and temperature response associated with different source sectors (Domestic, Energy+Industry+Waste, Transport, Agricultural waste burning, Forest fires, and Flaring) and source regions (United States, Canada, Russia, Nordic Countries, Rest of Europe, East and South Asia, Arctic, mid-latitudes, tropics, southern hemisphere) were calculated. To enable an evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of regional emission mitigation options, the normalized impacts (i.e., impacts per unit

School Climate Improvement Action Guide for Instructional Staff. School Climate Improvement Resource Package

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Center on Safe Supportive Learning Environments, 2017

2017-01-01

Improving school climate takes time and commitment from a variety of people in a variety of roles. This document outlines key action steps that instructional staff--including teachers, paraprofessionals, and others in the classroom who provide instruction or assistance--can take to support school climate improvements. Key action steps are provided…

School Climate Improvement Action Guide for District Leaders. School Climate Improvement Resource Package

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Center on Safe Supportive Learning Environments, 2017

2017-01-01

Improving school climate takes time and commitment from a variety of people in a variety of roles. This document outlines key action steps that district leaders--including superintendents, assistant superintendents, directors of student support services, or others--can take to support school climate improvements. Key action steps are provided for…

[Climatic suitability of citrus in subtropical China].

PubMed

Duan, Hai-Lai; Qian, Huai-Sui; Li, Ming-Xia; Du, Yao-Dong

2010-08-01

By applying the theories of ecological suitability and the methods of fuzzy mathematics, this paper established a climatic suitability model for citrus, calculated and evaluated the climatic suitability and its spatiotemporal differences for citrus production in subtropical China, and analyzed the climatic suitability of citrus at its different growth stages and the mean climatic suitability of citrus in different regions of subtropical China. The results showed that the citrus in subtropical China had a lower climatic suitability and a higher risk at its flower bud differentiation stage, budding stage, and fruit maturity stage, but a higher climatic suitability and a lower risk at other growth stages. Cold damage and summer drought were the key issues affecting the citrus production in subtropical China. The citrus temperature suitability represented a latitudinal zonal pattern, i. e., decreased with increasing latitude; its precipitation suitability was high in the line of "Sheyang-Napo", medium in the southeast of the line, low in the northwest of the line, and non in high mountainous area; while the sunlight suitability was in line with the actual duration of sunshine, namely, higher in high-latitude areas than in low-latitude areas, and higher in high-altitude areas than in plain areas. Limited by temperature factor, the climatic suitability was in accordance with temperature suitability, i. e., south parts had a higher suitability than north parts, basically representing latitudinal zonal pattern. From the analysis of the inter-annual changes of citrus climatic suitability, it could be seen that the citrus climatic suitability in subtropical China was decreasing, and had obvious regional differences, suggesting that climate change could bring about the changes in the regions suitable for citrus production and in the key stages of citrus growth.

Does Arctic governance hold the key to achieving climate policy targets?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forbis, Robert, Jr.; Hayhoe, Katharine

2018-02-01

Arctic feedbacks are increasingly viewed as the wild card in the climate system; but their most unpredictable and potentially dangerous aspect may lie in the human, rather than the physical, response to a warming climate. If Arctic policy is driven by agendas based on domestic resource development, the ensuing oil and gas extraction will ensure the failure of the Paris Agreement. If Arctic energy policy can be framed by the Arctic Council, however, its environmental agenda and fragmented governance structure offers the scientific community a fighting chance to determine the region’s energy future. Connecting Arctic climate science to resource economics via its unique governance structure is one of the most powerful ways the scientific community can protect the Arctic region’s environmental, cultural, and scientific resources, and influence international energy and climate policy.

Temporal trend and climate factors of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome epidemic in Shenyang City, China

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is an important infectious disease caused by different species of hantaviruses. As a rodent-borne disease with a seasonal distribution, external environmental factors including climate factors may play a significant role in its transmission. The city of Shenyang is one of the most seriously endemic areas for HFRS. Here, we characterized the dynamic temporal trend of HFRS, and identified climate-related risk factors and their roles in HFRS transmission in Shenyang, China. Methods The annual and monthly cumulative numbers of HFRS cases from 2004 to 2009 were calculated and plotted to show the annual and seasonal fluctuation in Shenyang. Cross-correlation and autocorrelation analyses were performed to detect the lagged effect of climate factors on HFRS transmission and the autocorrelation of monthly HFRS cases. Principal component analysis was constructed by using climate data from 2004 to 2009 to extract principal components of climate factors to reduce co-linearity. The extracted principal components and autocorrelation terms of monthly HFRS cases were added into a multiple regression model called principal components regression model (PCR) to quantify the relationship between climate factors, autocorrelation terms and transmission of HFRS. The PCR model was compared to a general multiple regression model conducted only with climate factors as independent variables. Results A distinctly declining temporal trend of annual HFRS incidence was identified. HFRS cases were reported every month, and the two peak periods occurred in spring (March to May) and winter (November to January), during which, nearly 75% of the HFRS cases were reported. Three principal components were extracted with a cumulative contribution rate of 86.06%. Component 1 represented MinRH0, MT1, RH1, and MWV1; component 2 represented RH2, MaxT3, and MAP3; and component 3 represented MaxT2, MAP2, and MWV2. The PCR model was composed of three

Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States: Key Findings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garfin, G. M.

2012-12-01

The Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States, is a technical input to the National Climate Assessment. The 121-author report summarizes knowledge about climate change and its impacts across Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah. The report looks at links between climate and natural resources, vulnerabilities to climate variability and change across the region and along the U.S.-Mexico border, and adaptation and mitigation choices for addressing future changes. The period since 1950 has been warmer than any period of comparable length in the last 600 years. Droughts of the past 2,000 years have exceeded the most severe and sustained drought during 1901-2010. In the last decade, flows in the major river basins of the Southwest have been lower than their 20th century averages; many snowmelt-fed streams in the region exhibited earlier snowmelt and earlier center of mass of annual streamflows. Climate models project continued temperature increases, with longer and hotter summer heat waves. Average precipitation is projected to decrease in the southern part of the region. Reduced streamflows are projected for the Rio Grande, Colorado, and San Joaquin rivers. More frequent and intense winter flooding is projected for the western Sierra Nevada, whereas Colorado Front Range summer flooding is projected to increase. Observed ecosystems impacts include changes in phenology, widespread forest disturbance due to the confluence of drought, increased temperatures, and changes to insect life cycles. Area burned by wildfire is projected to increase in most of the Southwest. Plant and animal species' distributions will be affected by climate change, and studies show that observed climate changes are strongly associated with observed changes in species' distributions. California coastal ecosystems will be affected by a combination of ocean warming, reduced oxygen content, sea level rise and ocean acidification. When west coast sea levels are

Potential climate change impacts on fire intensity and key wildfire suppression thresholds in Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wotton, B. M.; Flannigan, M. D.; Marshall, G. A.

2017-09-01

Much research has been carried out on the potential impacts of climate change on forest fire activity in the boreal forest. Indeed, there is a general consensus that, while change will vary regionally across the vast extent of the boreal, in general the fire environment will become more conducive to fire. Land management agencies must consider ways to adapt to these new conditions. This paper examines the impact of that changed fire environment on overall wildfire suppression capability. We use multiple General Circulation Models and carbon emission pathways to generate future fire environment scenarios for Canada’s forested region. We then use these scenarios with the Canadian Forest Fire Behaviour Prediction System and spatial coverages of the current forest fuel composition across the landscape to examine potential variation in key fire behaviour outputs that influence whether fire management resources can effectively suppress fire. Specifically, we evaluate how the potential for crown fire occurrence and active growth of fires changes with the changing climate. We also examine future fire behaviour through the lens of operational fire intensity thresholds used to guide decisions about resources effectiveness. Results indicate that the proportion of days in fire seasons with the potential for unmanageable fire will increase across Canada’s forest, more than doubling in some regions in northern and eastern boreal forest.

Soil biochar amendment as a climate change mitigation tool: Key parameters and mechanisms involved.

PubMed

Brassard, Patrick; Godbout, Stéphane; Raghavan, Vijaya

2016-10-01

Biochar, a solid porous material obtained from the carbonization of biomass under low or no oxygen conditions, has been proposed as a climate change mitigation tool because it is expected to sequester carbon (C) for centuries and to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from soils. This review aimed to identify key biochar properties and production parameters that have an effect on these specific applications of the biochar. Moreover, mechanisms involved in interactions between biochar and soils were highlighted. Following a compilation and comparison of the characteristics of 76 biochars from 40 research studies, biochars with a lower N content, and consequently a higher C/N ratio (>30), were found to be more suitable for mitigation of N2O emissions from soils. Moreover, biochars produced at a higher pyrolysis temperature, and with O/C ratio <0.2, H/Corg ratio <0.4 and volatile matter below 80% may have high C sequestration potential. Based on these observations, biochar production and application to the field can be used as a tool to mitigate climate change. However, it is important to determine the pyrolysis conditions and feedstock needed to produce a biochar with the desired properties for a specific application. More research studies are needed to identify the exact mechanisms involved following biochar amendment to soil. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

School Climate Improvement Action Guide for School Leaders. School Climate Improvement Resource Package

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Center on Safe Supportive Learning Environments, 2017

2017-01-01

Improving school climate takes time and commitment from a variety of people in a variety of roles. This document outlines key action steps that school leaders--including principals, assistant/vice principals, and building leaders--can take to support school climate improvements. Key action steps are provided for the following strategies: (1)…

Impact of socio-demographic factors on the mitigating actions for climate change: a path analysis with mediating effects of attitudinal variables.

PubMed

Masud, Muhammad Mehedi; Akhatr, Rulia; Nasrin, Shamima; Adamu, Ibrahim Mohammed

2017-12-01

Socio-demographic factors play a significant role in increasing the individual's climate change awareness and in setting a favorable individual attitude towards its mitigation. To better understand how the adversative effects of climate change can be mitigated, this study attempts to investigate the impact of socio-demographic factors on the mitigating actions of the individuals (MAOI) on climate change. Qualitative data were collected from a face-to-face survey of 360 respondents in the Kuala Lumpur region of Malaysia through a close-ended questionnaire. Analysis was conducted on the mediating effects of attitudinal variables through the path model by using the SEM. Findings indicate that the socio-demographic factors such as gender, age, education, income, and ethnicity can greatly influence the individual's awareness, attitude, risk perception, and knowledge of climate change issues. The results drawn from this study also revealed that the attitudinal factors act as a mediating effect between the socio-demographic factors and the MAOI, thereby, indicating that both the socio-demographic factors and the attitudinal factors have significant effects on the MAOI towards climate change. The outcome of this study can help policy makers and other private organizations to decide on the appropriate actions to take in managing climate change effects. These actions which encompass improving basic climate change education and making the public more aware of the local dimensions of climate change are important for harnessing public engagement and support that can also stimulate climate change awareness and promote mitigating actions to n protect the environment from the impact of climate change.

Climate Change? A Comparison of Language and Literacy Practices Relating to the Teaching of Science across the Key Stage 2/3 Interface in Two School Clusters

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McCullagh, John; Jarman, Ruth

2009-01-01

This paper reports the findings of a study of the literacy perceptions and practices of general primary teachers (Key Stage 2) and post-primary science teachers (Key Stage 3) within two clusters of schools. The study also explores the possible impact on pupils of any difference in the language climate which may accompany them on their journey…

Relationship of Climatic and Forest Factors to Drought- and Heat-Induced Tree Mortality

PubMed Central

Zhang, Qingyin; Shao, Ming’an; Jia, Xiaoxu; Wei, Xiaorong

2017-01-01

Tree mortality due to warming and drought is a critical aspect of forest ecosystem in responding to climate change. Spatial patterns of tree mortality induced by drought and its influencing factors, however, have yet to be documented at the global scale. We collected observations from 248 sites globally where trees have died due to drought and then assessed the effects of climatic and forest factors on the rate of tree mortality. The global mean annual mortality rate was 5.5%. The rate of tree mortality was significantly and negatively correlated with mean annual precipitation (P < 0.01). Tree mortality was lowest in tropical rainforests with mean annual precipitation >2000 mm and was severe in regions with mean annual precipitation <1000 mm. Mortality rates varied amongst species. The global annual rate of mortality was much higher for gymnosperms (7.1%) than angiosperms (4.8%) but did not differ significantly between evergreen (6.2%) and deciduous (6.1%) species. Stand age and wood density affected the mortality rate. Saplings (4.6%) had a higher mortality rate than mature trees (3.2%), and mortality rates significantly decreased with increasing wood density for all species (P < 0.01). We therefore concluded that the tree mortality around the globe varied with climatic and forest factors. The differences between tree species, wood density, stand density, and stand age should be considered when evaluating tree mortality at a large spatial scale during future climatic extremes. PMID:28095437

Relationship of Climatic and Forest Factors to Drought- and Heat-Induced Tree Mortality.

PubMed

Zhang, Qingyin; Shao, Ming'an; Jia, Xiaoxu; Wei, Xiaorong

2017-01-01

Tree mortality due to warming and drought is a critical aspect of forest ecosystem in responding to climate change. Spatial patterns of tree mortality induced by drought and its influencing factors, however, have yet to be documented at the global scale. We collected observations from 248 sites globally where trees have died due to drought and then assessed the effects of climatic and forest factors on the rate of tree mortality. The global mean annual mortality rate was 5.5%. The rate of tree mortality was significantly and negatively correlated with mean annual precipitation (P < 0.01). Tree mortality was lowest in tropical rainforests with mean annual precipitation >2000 mm and was severe in regions with mean annual precipitation <1000 mm. Mortality rates varied amongst species. The global annual rate of mortality was much higher for gymnosperms (7.1%) than angiosperms (4.8%) but did not differ significantly between evergreen (6.2%) and deciduous (6.1%) species. Stand age and wood density affected the mortality rate. Saplings (4.6%) had a higher mortality rate than mature trees (3.2%), and mortality rates significantly decreased with increasing wood density for all species (P < 0.01). We therefore concluded that the tree mortality around the globe varied with climatic and forest factors. The differences between tree species, wood density, stand density, and stand age should be considered when evaluating tree mortality at a large spatial scale during future climatic extremes.

Northward shift of the agricultural climate zone under 21st-century global climate change.

PubMed

King, Myron; Altdorff, Daniel; Li, Pengfei; Galagedara, Lakshman; Holden, Joseph; Unc, Adrian

2018-05-21

As agricultural regions are threatened by climate change, warming of high latitude regions and increasing food demands may lead to northward expansion of global agriculture. While socio-economic demands and edaphic conditions may govern the expansion, climate is a key limiting factor. Extant literature on future crop projections considers established agricultural regions and is mainly temperature based. We employed growing degree days (GDD), as the physiological link between temperature and crop growth, to assess the global northward shift of agricultural climate zones under 21 st -century climate change. Using ClimGen scenarios for seven global climate models (GCMs), based on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and transient GHGs, we delineated the future extent of GDD areas, feasible for small cereals, and assessed the projected changes in rainfall and potential evapotranspiration. By 2099, roughly 76% (55% to 89%) of the boreal region might reach crop feasible GDD conditions, compared to the current 32%. The leading edge of the feasible GDD will shift northwards up to 1200 km by 2099 while the altitudinal shift remains marginal. However, most of the newly gained areas are associated with highly seasonal and monthly variations in climatic water balances, a critical component of any future land-use and management decisions.

Health impacts of climate change and health and social inequalities in the UK.

PubMed

Paavola, Jouni

2017-12-05

This article examines how social and health inequalities shape the health impacts of climate change in the UK, and what the implications are for climate change adaptation and health care provision. The evidence generated by the other articles of the special issue were interpreted using social justice reasoning in light of additional literature, to draw out the key implications of health and social inequalities for health outcomes of climate change. Exposure to heat and cold, air pollution, pollen, food safety risks, disruptions to access to and functioning of health services and facilities, emerging infections and flooding are examined as the key impacts of climate change influencing health outcomes. Age, pre-existing medical conditions and social deprivation are found to be the key (but not only) factors that make people vulnerable and to experience more adverse health outcomes related to climate change impacts. In the future, climate change, aging population and decreasing public spending on health and social care may aggravate inequality of health outcomes related to climate change. Health education and public preparedness measures that take into account differential exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity of different groups help address health and social inequalities to do with climate change. Adaptation strategies based on individual preparedness, action and behaviour change may aggravate health and social inequalities due to their selective uptake, unless they are coupled with broad public information campaigns and financial support for undertaking adaptive measures.

Developing Health-Related Indicators of Climate Change: Australian Stakeholder Perspectives.

PubMed

Navi, Maryam; Hansen, Alana; Nitschke, Monika; Hanson-Easey, Scott; Pisaniello, Dino

2017-05-22

Climate-related health indicators are potentially useful for tracking and predicting the adverse public health effects of climate change, identifying vulnerable populations, and monitoring interventions. However, there is a need to understand stakeholders' perspectives on the identification, development, and utility of such indicators. A qualitative approach was used, comprising semi-structured interviews with key informants and service providers from government and non-government stakeholder organizations in South Australia. Stakeholders saw a need for indicators that could enable the monitoring of health impacts and time trends, vulnerability to climate change, and those which could also be used as communication tools. Four key criteria for utility were identified, namely robust and credible indicators, specificity, data availability, and being able to be spatially represented. The variability of risk factors in different regions, lack of resources, and data and methodological issues were identified as the main barriers to indicator development. This study demonstrates a high level of stakeholder awareness of the health impacts of climate change, and the need for indicators that can inform policy makers regarding interventions.

Three-factor anonymous authentication and key agreement scheme for Telecare Medicine Information Systems.

PubMed

Arshad, Hamed; Nikooghadam, Morteza

2014-12-01

Nowadays, with comprehensive employment of the internet, healthcare delivery services is provided remotely by telecare medicine information systems (TMISs). A secure mechanism for authentication and key agreement is one of the most important security requirements for TMISs. Recently, Tan proposed a user anonymity preserving three-factor authentication scheme for TMIS. The present paper shows that Tan's scheme is vulnerable to replay attacks and Denial-of-Service attacks. In order to overcome these security flaws, a new and efficient three-factor anonymous authentication and key agreement scheme for TMIS is proposed. Security and performance analysis shows superiority of the proposed scheme in comparison with previously proposed schemes that are related to security of TMISs.

Climatic factors associated with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: a spatial analysis from Taiwan.

PubMed

Tsai, Ching-Piao; Tzu-Chi Lee, Charles

2013-11-01

Few studies have assessed the spatial association of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) incidence in the world. The aim of this study was to identify the association of climatic factors and ALS incidence in Taiwan. A total of 1,434 subjects with the primary diagnosis of ALS between years 1997 and 2008 were identified in the national health insurance research database. The diagnosis was also verified by the national health insurance programme, which had issued and providing them with "serious disabling disease (SDD) certificates". Local indicators of spatial association were employed to investigate spatial clustering of age-standardised incidence ratios in the townships of the study area. Spatial regression was utilised to reveal any association of annual average climatic factors and ALS incidence for the 12-year study period. The climatic factors included the annual average time of sunlight exposure, average temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, atmospheric pressure, rainfall, relative humidity and wind speed with spatial autocorrelation controlled. Significant correlations were only found for exposure to sunlight and rainfall and it was similar in both genders. The annual average of the former was found to be negatively correlated with ALS, while the latter was positively correlated with ALS incidence. While accepting that ALS is most probably multifactorial, it was concluded that sunlight deprivation and/or rainfall are associated to some degree with ALS incidence in Taiwan.

Association of climatic factors with infectious diseases in the Arctic and subarctic region--a systematic review.

PubMed

Hedlund, Christina; Blomstedt, Yulia; Schumann, Barbara

2014-01-01

The Arctic and subarctic area are likely to be highly affected by climate change, with possible impacts on human health due to effects on food security and infectious diseases. To investigate the evidence for an association between climatic factors and infectious diseases, and to identify the most climate-sensitive diseases and vulnerable populations in the Arctic and subarctic region. A systematic review was conducted. A search was made in PubMed, with the last update in May 2013. Inclusion criteria included human cases of infectious disease as outcome, climate or weather factor as exposure, and Arctic or subarctic areas as study origin. Narrative reviews, case reports, and projection studies were excluded. Abstracts and selected full texts were read and evaluated by two independent readers. A data collection sheet and an adjusted version of the SIGN methodology checklist were used to assess the quality grade of each article. In total, 1953 abstracts were initially found, of which finally 29 articles were included. Almost half of the studies were carried out in Canada (n=14), the rest from Sweden (n=6), Finland (n=4), Norway (n=2), Russia (n=2), and Alaska, US (n=1). Articles were analyzed by disease group: food- and waterborne diseases, vector-borne diseases, airborne viral- and airborne bacterial diseases. Strong evidence was found in our review for an association between climatic factors and food- and waterborne diseases. The scientific evidence for a link between climate and specific vector- and rodent-borne diseases was weak due to that only a few diseases being addressed in more than one publication, although several articles were of very high quality. Air temperature and humidity seem to be important climatic factors to investigate further for viral- and bacterial airborne diseases, but from our results no conclusion about a causal relationship could be drawn. More studies of high quality are needed to investigate the adverse health impacts of weather and

The effects of climate factors on scabies. A 14-year population-based study in Taiwan

PubMed Central

Liu, Jui-Ming; Wang, Hsiao-Wei; Chang, Fung-Wei; Liu, Yueh-Ping; Chiu, Feng-Hsiang; Lin, Yi-Chun; Cheng, Kuan-Chen; Hsu, Ren-Jun

2016-01-01

Scabies is a common infectious disease and can cause severe outbreaks if not controlled quickly. Besides personal contact history, environmental factors are also important. This study analyzed the effects of environmental climate factors on the incidence of scabies in Taiwan. We conducted a 14-year nationwide population-based study: a total of 14,883 patients with scabies infestation were enrolled. Monthly climate data were collected from Taiwan’s Central Weather Bureau, including data on temperature, relative humidity, total rainfall, total rain days, and total sunshine hours. The linear relationships between these climate factors and scabies infestations or other risk factors were examined by Pearson’s correlation analysis. Overall, the incidence of scabies was negatively correlated with temperature (γ = −0.152, p < 0.001), while being positively correlated with humidity (γ = 0.192, p < 0.001). This useful information may provide evidence for lowering humidity at nursing facilities, hospitals, and military camps with scabies infestations, which may help to reduce its spread and prevent outbreaks. PMID:27905271

The effects of climate factors on scabies. A 14-year population-based study in Taiwan.

PubMed

Liu, Jui-Ming; Wang, Hsiao-Wei; Chang, Fung-Wei; Liu, Yueh-Ping; Chiu, Feng-Hsiang; Lin, Yi-Chun; Cheng, Kuan-Chen; Hsu, Ren-Jun

2016-01-01

Scabies is a common infectious disease and can cause severe outbreaks if not controlled quickly. Besides personal contact history, environmental factors are also important. This study analyzed the effects of environmental climate factors on the incidence of scabies in Taiwan. We conducted a 14-year nationwide population-based study: a total of 14,883 patients with scabies infestation were enrolled. Monthly climate data were collected from Taiwan's Central Weather Bureau, including data on temperature, relative humidity, total rainfall, total rain days, and total sunshine hours. The linear relationships between these climate factors and scabies infestations or other risk factors were examined by Pearson's correlation analysis. Overall, the incidence of scabies was negatively correlated with temperature (γ = -0.152, p < 0.001), while being positively correlated with humidity (γ = 0.192, p < 0.001). This useful information may provide evidence for lowering humidity at nursing facilities, hospitals, and military camps with scabies infestations, which may help to reduce its spread and prevent outbreaks. © J.-M. Liu et al., published by EDP Sciences, 2016.

Psychological factors mediate key symptoms of fibromyalgia through their influence on stress.

PubMed

Malin, Katrina; Littlejohn, Geoffrey Owen

2016-09-01

The clinical features of fibromyalgia are associated with various psychological factors, including stress. We examined the hypothesis that the path that psychological factors follow in influencing fibromyalgia symptoms is through their direct effect on stress. Ninety-eight females with ACR 1990 classified fibromyalgia completed the following questionnaires: The Big 5 Personality Inventory, Fibromyalgia Impact Questionnaire, Perceived Stress Scale, Profile of Mood States, Mastery Scale, and Perceived Control of Internal States Scale. SPSS (PASW version 22) was used to perform basic t tests, means, and standard deviations to show difference between symptom characteristics. Pathway analysis using structural equation modelling (Laavan) examined the effect of stress on the relationships between psychological factors and the elements that define the fibromyalgia phenotype. The preferred model showed that the identified path clearly linked the psychological variables of anxiety, neuroticism and mastery, but not internal control, to the three key elements of fibromyalgia, namely pain, fatigue and sleep (p < 0.001), via the person's perceived stress. Confusion, however, did not fit the preferred model. This study confirms that stress is a necessary link in the pathway between certain identified, established and significant psychological factors and key fibromyalgia symptoms. This has implications for the understanding of contributing mechanisms and the clinical care of patients with fibromyalgia.

Global Climate Models for the Classroom: The Educational Impact of Student Work with a Key Tool of Climate Scientists

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bush, D. F.; Sieber, R.; Seiler, G.; Chandler, M. A.; Chmura, G. L.

2017-12-01

Efforts to address climate change require public understanding of Earth and climate science. To meet this need, educators require instructional approaches and scientific technologies that overcome cultural barriers to impart conceptual understanding of the work of climate scientists. We compared student inquiry learning with now ubiquitous climate education toy models, data and tools against that which took place using a computational global climate model (GCM) from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Our study at McGill University and John Abbott College in Montreal, QC sheds light on how best to teach the research processes important to Earth and climate scientists studying atmospheric and Earth system processes but ill-understood by those outside the scientific community. We followed a pre/post, control/treatment experimental design that enabled detailed analysis and statistically significant results. Our research found more students succeed at understanding climate change when exposed to actual climate research processes and instruments. Inquiry-based education with a GCM resulted in significantly higher scores pre to post on diagnostic exams (quantitatively) and more complete conceptual understandings (qualitatively). We recognize the difficulty in planning and teaching inquiry with complex technology and we also found evidence that lectures support learning geared toward assessment exams.

Key factors influencing the intention of telecare adoption: an institutional perspective.

PubMed

Liu, Chung-Feng

2011-05-01

The objective of this study was to explore key factors of influence on the adoption of telecare by care institutions. This investigation was based on an extensive Technology-Organization-Environment framework comprising the four constructs of technology, organization, environment, and the project planning as well as corresponding variables. This study utilized a self-administered questionnaire for data collection, focusing on the managers of all 339 nursing homes in Taiwan for the census survey. A total of 70 valid questionnaires yielded a response rate of 20.65%. After analyzing the responses through the Partial Least Squares approach, government support, technological knowledge, supplier support, team skills, and compatibility were found to be the five key factors that positively impact intention to adopt telecare from an institutional perspective. The results of this study indicated that care institutions, for the most part, are willing to develop telecare and are already incorporating preliminary applications of telecare, such as distance learning and resident positioning. Solutions to potential issues related to implementing telecare in practice are also proposed in this study.

Climate Change Accuracy: Requirements and Economic Value

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wielicki, B. A.; Cooke, R.; Mlynczak, M. G.; Lukashin, C.; Thome, K. J.; Baize, R. R.

2014-12-01

Higher than normal accuracy is required to rigorously observe decadal climate change. But what level is needed? How can this be quantified? This presentation will summarize a new more rigorous and quantitative approach to determining the required accuracy for climate change observations (Wielicki et al., 2013, BAMS). Most current global satellite observations cannot meet this accuracy level. A proposed new satellite mission to resolve this challenge is CLARREO (Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory). CLARREO is designed to achieve advances of a factor of 10 for reflected solar spectra and a factor of 3 to 5 for thermal infrared spectra (Wielicki et al., Oct. 2013 BAMS). The CLARREO spectrometers are designed to serve as SI traceable benchmarks for the Global Satellite Intercalibration System (GSICS) and to greatly improve the utility of a wide range of LEO and GEO infrared and reflected solar passive satellite sensors for climate change observations (e.g. CERES, MODIS, VIIIRS, CrIS, IASI, Landsat, SPOT, etc). Providing more accurate decadal change trends can in turn lead to more rapid narrowing of key climate science uncertainties such as cloud feedback and climate sensitivity. A study has been carried out to quantify the economic benefits of such an advance as part of a rigorous and complete climate observing system. The study concludes that the economic value is $12 Trillion U.S. dollars in Net Present Value for a nominal discount rate of 3% (Cooke et al. 2013, J. Env. Sys. Dec.). A brief summary of these two studies and their implications for the future of climate science will be presented.

Revisiting the role of environmental and climate factors on the epidemiology of Kawasaki disease.

PubMed

Rodó, Xavier; Ballester, Joan; Curcoll, Roger; Boyard-Micheau, Joseph; Borràs, Sílvia; Morguí, Josep-Anton

2016-10-01

Can environmental factors, such as air-transported preformed toxins, be of key relevance to the health outcomes of poorly understood human ailments (e.g., rheumatic diseases such as vasculitides, some inflammatory diseases, or even severe childhood acquired heart diseases)? Can the physical, chemical, or biological features of air masses be linked to the emergence of diseases such as Kawasaki disease (KD), Henoch-Schönlein purpura, Takayasu's aortitis, and ANCA-associated vasculitis? These diseases surprisingly share some common epidemiological features. For example, they tend to appear as clusters of cases grouped geographically and temporarily progress in nonrandom sequences that repeat every year in a similar way. They also show concurrent trend changes within regions in countries and among different world regions. In this paper, we revisit transdisciplinary research on the role of environmental and climate factors in the epidemiology of KD as a paradigmatic example of this group of diseases. Early-warning systems based on environmental alerts, if successful, could be implemented as a way to better inform patients who are predisposed to, or at risk for, developing KD. Further research on the etiology of KD could facilitate the development of vaccines and specific medical therapies. © 2016 New York Academy of Sciences.

The key role of the meat industry in transformation to a low-carbon, climate resilient, sustainable economy.

PubMed

Rijsberman, Frank

2017-10-01

Climate change, air pollution and refugees have become key global challenges threatening sustainability of lifestyles, economies and ecosystems. Agri-food systems are the number one driver of environmental change. Livestock production is the world's largest land user, responsible for half of greenhouse gas emissions from agri-food systems, and the source of repeated health crises. Poor diets have become the number one cause of ill health. Recommendations for a healthy diet emphasize plant-based food. Rapidly falling costs in information technology, biotechnology, renewable energy and battery technology will disrupt current energy and transportation systems and offer opportunities for responsible meat production. Growing consumer interest in healthy food, combined with innovative information systems, offer opportunities to create value through quality control and consumer information in integrated value chains. Meat scientists have a major role to play in the necessary transformation of global agri-food systems towards a new model of green economic growth that is climate resilient, sustainable and provides green jobs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Avoiding dangerous climate change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hans Joachim Schellnhuber; Wolfgang Cramer; Nebojsa Nakicenovic

2006-02-15

In 2005 the UK Government hosted the Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change conference to take an in-depth look at the scientific issues associated with climate change. This volume presents the most recent findings from the leading international scientists that attended the conference. The topics addressed include critical thresholds and key vulnerabilities of the climate system, impacts on human and natural systems, socioeconomic costs and benefits of emissions pathways, and technological options for meeting different stabilisation levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Contents are: Foreword from Prime Minister Tony Blair; Introduction from Rajendra Pachauri, Chairman of the IPCC; followed by 41more » papers arranged in seven sections entitled: Key Vulnerabilities of the Climate System and Critical Thresholds; General Perspectives on Dangerous Impacts; Key Vulnerabilities for Ecosystems and Biodiversity; Socio-Economic Effects; Regional Perspectives; Emission Pathways; and Technological Options. Four papers have been abstracted separately for the Coal Abstracts database.« less

Factors associated with the patient safety climate at a teaching hospital1

PubMed Central

Luiz, Raíssa Bianca; Simões, Ana Lúcia de Assis; Barichello, Elizabeth; Barbosa, Maria Helena

2015-01-01

Objectives: to investigate the association between the scores of the patient safety climate and socio-demographic and professional variables. Methods: an observational, sectional and quantitative study, conducted at a large public teaching hospital. The Safety Attitudes Questionnaire was used, translated and validated for Brazil. Data analysis used the software Statistical Package for Social Sciences. In the bivariate analysis, we used Student's t-test, analysis of variance and Spearman's correlation of (α=0.05). To identify predictors for the safety climate scores, multiple linear regression was used, having the safety climate domain as the main outcome (α=0.01). Results: most participants were women, nursing staff, who worked in direct care to adult patients in critical areas, without a graduate degree and without any other employment. The average and median total score of the instrument corresponded to 61.8 (SD=13.7) and 63.3, respectively. The variable professional performance was found as a factor associated with the safety environment for the domain perception of service management and hospital management (p=0.01). Conclusion: the identification of factors associated with the safety environment permits the construction of strategies for safe practices in the hospitals. PMID:26487138

Why sustainable population growth is a key to climate change and public health equity.

PubMed

Howat, Peter; Stoneham, Melissa

2011-12-01

Australia's population could reach 42 million by 2050. This rapid population growth, if unabated, will have significant social, public health and environmental implications. On the one hand, it is a major driver of climate change and environmental degradation; on the other it is likely to be a major contributor to growing social and health issues including a decline in quality of life for many residents. Disadvantaged and vulnerable groups will be most affected. The environmental, social and health-related issues include: pressure on the limited arable land in Australia; increased volumes of industrial and domestic waste; inadequate essential services; traffic congestion; lack of affordable housing; declining mental health; increased obesity problems; and inadequate aged care services. Many of these factors are related to the aggravation of climate change and health inequities. It is critical that the Australian Government develops a sustainable population plan with stabilisation of population growth as an option. The plan needs to ensure adequate hospitals and healthcare services, education facilities, road infrastructure, sustainable transport options, water quality and quantity, utilities and other amenities that are already severely overburdened in Australian cities. There is a need for a guarantee that affordable housing will be available and priority be given to training young people and Indigenous people for employment. This paper presents evidence to support the need for the stabilisation of population growth as one of the most significant measures to control climate change as well as to improve public health equity.

[Direct human DNA damage by unfavorable environmental and climatic factors].

PubMed

Doroshtuk, N A; Postnov, A Iu; Doroshtuk, A D; Khasanova, E B; Konovalova, N V; Khesuani, Iu D; Osiaeva, M K; Rodnenkov, O V; Chazova, I E

2014-01-01

To study the impact of simulated climatic conditions of the 2010 summer in Moscow on the telomere repeats of chromosomes in human blood cells. The climatic conditions of July-August 2010 in Moscow were simulated at the Medical Technical Complex, Institute of Biomedical Problems, Russian Academy of Sciences. The relative length of the telomeric repeats of blood cell chromosomes from 6 apparently healthy volunteers was measured by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction. These conditions were ascertained to lead to a statistically significant decline in the length of telomere repeats in the terminal portions of chromosomes by 15%. Environmental changes and abnormal temperature rises may result in oxidative stress accompanied by telomere shortening, which can be, in turn, a factor of premature aging.

The Chew Bahir Drilling Project (HSPDP). Deciphering climate information from the Chew Bahir sediment cores: Towards a continuous half-million year climate record near the Omo - Turkana key palaeonanthropological Site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foerster, Verena E.; Asrat, Asfawossen; Chapot, Melissa S.; Cohen, Andrew S.; Dean, Jonathan R.; Deino, Alan; Günter, Christina; Junginger, Annett; Lamb, Henry F.; Leng, Melanie J.; Roberts, Helen M.; Schaebitz, Frank; Trauth, Martin H.

2017-04-01

As a contribution towards an enhanced understanding of human-climate interactions, the Hominin Sites and Paleolakes Drilling Project (HSPDP) has successfully completed coring five dominantly lacustrine archives of climate change during the last 3.5 Ma in East Africa. All five sites in Ethiopia and Kenya are adjacent to key paleoanthropological research areas encompassing diverse milestones in human evolution, dispersal episodes, and technological innovation. The 280 m-long Chew Bahir sediment records, recovered from a tectonically-bound basin in the southern Ethiopian rift in late 2014, cover the past 550 ka of environmental history, a time period that includes the transition to the Middle Stone Age, and the origin and dispersal of modern Homo sapiens. Deciphering climate information from lake sediments is challenging, due to the complex relationship between climate parameters and sediment composition. We will present the first results in our efforts to develop a reliable climate-proxy tool box for Chew Bahir by deconvolving the relationship between sedimentological and geochemical sediment composition and strongly climate-controlled processes in the basin, such as incongruent weathering, transportation and authigenic mineral alteration. Combining our first results from the long cores with those from a pilot study of short cores taken in 2009/10 along a NW-SE transect of the basin, we have developed a hypothesis linking climate forcing and paleoenvironmental signal-formation processes in the basin. X-ray diffraction analysis of the first sample sets from the long Chew Bahir record reveals similar processes that have been recognized for the uppermost 20 m during the pilot-study of the project: the diagenetic illitization of smectites during episodes of higher alkalinity and salinity in the closed-basin lake induced by a drier climate. The precise time resolution, largely continuous record and (eventually) a detailed understanding of site specific proxy formation

Key landscape ecology metrics for assessing climate change adaptation options: Rate of change and patchiness of impacts

USGS Publications Warehouse

López-Hoffman, Laura; Breshears, David D.; Allen, Craig D.; Miller, Marc L.

2013-01-01

Under a changing climate, devising strategies to help stakeholders adapt to alterations to ecosystems and their services is of utmost importance. In western North America, diminished snowpack and river flows are causing relatively gradual, homogeneous (system-wide) changes in ecosystems and services. In addition, increased climate variability is also accelerating the incidence of abrupt and patchy disturbances such as fires, floods and droughts. This paper posits that two key variables often considered in landscape ecology—the rate of change and the degree of patchiness of change—can aid in developing climate change adaptation strategies. We use two examples from the “borderland” region of the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico. In piñon-juniper woodland die-offs that occurred in the southwestern United States during the 2000s, ecosystem services suddenly crashed in some parts of the system while remaining unaffected in other locations. The precise timing and location of die-offs was uncertain. On the other hand, slower, homogeneous change, such as the expected declines in water supply to the Colorado River delta, will likely impact the entire ecosystem, with ecosystem services everywhere in the delta subject to alteration, and all users likely exposed. The rapidity and spatial heterogeneity of faster, patchy climate change exemplified by tree die-off suggests that decision-makers and local stakeholders would be wise to operate under a Rawlsian “veil of ignorance,” and implement adaptation strategies that allow ecosystem service users to equitably share the risk of sudden loss of ecosystem services before actual ecosystem changes occur. On the other hand, in the case of slower, homogeneous, system-wide impacts to ecosystem services as exemplified by the Colorado River delta, adaptation strategies can be implemented after the changes begin, but will require a fundamental rethinking of how ecosystems and services are used and valued. In

Phytoplankton and Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moisan, John R.

2009-01-01

Ocean phytoplankton supply about half of the oxygen that humans utilize to sustain life. In this lecture, we will explore how phytoplankton plays a critical role in modulating the Earth's climate. These tiny organisms are the base of the Ocean's food web. They can modulate the rate at which solar heat is absorbed by the ocean, either through direct absorption or through production of highly scattering cellular coverings. They take up and help sequester carbon dioxide, a key greenhouse gas that modulated the Earth's climate. They are the source of cloud nucleation gases that are key to cloud formation/processes. They are also able to modify the nutrient budgets of the ocean through active uptake of inert atmospheric nitrogen. Climate variations have a pronounced impact on phytoplankton dynamics. Long term variations in the climate have been studied through geological interpretations on its influence on phytoplankton populations. The presentation will focus on presenting the numerous linkages that have been observed between climate and phytoplankton and further discuss how present climate change scenarios are likely to impact phytoplankton populations as well as present findings from several studies that have tried to understand how the climate might react to the feedbacks from these numerous climate-phytop|ankton linkages.

Forecasting malaria cases using climatic factors in delhi, India: a time series analysis.

PubMed

Kumar, Varun; Mangal, Abha; Panesar, Sanjeet; Yadav, Geeta; Talwar, Richa; Raut, Deepak; Singh, Saudan

2014-01-01

Background. Malaria still remains a public health problem in developing countries and changing environmental and climatic factors pose the biggest challenge in fighting against the scourge of malaria. Therefore, the study was designed to forecast malaria cases using climatic factors as predictors in Delhi, India. Methods. The total number of monthly cases of malaria slide positives occurring from January 2006 to December 2013 was taken from the register maintained at the malaria clinic at Rural Health Training Centre (RHTC), Najafgarh, Delhi. Climatic data of monthly mean rainfall, relative humidity, and mean maximum temperature were taken from Regional Meteorological Centre, Delhi. Expert modeler of SPSS ver. 21 was used for analyzing the time series data. Results. Autoregressive integrated moving average, ARIMA (0,1,1) (0,1,0)(12), was the best fit model and it could explain 72.5% variability in the time series data. Rainfall (P value = 0.004) and relative humidity (P value = 0.001) were found to be significant predictors for malaria transmission in the study area. Seasonal adjusted factor (SAF) for malaria cases shows peak during the months of August and September. Conclusion. ARIMA models of time series analysis is a simple and reliable tool for producing reliable forecasts for malaria in Delhi, India.

Fibroblast growth factors: key players in regeneration and tissue repair.

PubMed

Maddaluno, Luigi; Urwyler, Corinne; Werner, Sabine

2017-11-15

Tissue injury initiates a complex repair process, which in some organisms can lead to the complete regeneration of a tissue. In mammals, however, the repair of most organs is imperfect and results in scar formation. Both regeneration and repair are orchestrated by a highly coordinated interplay of different growth factors and cytokines. Among the key players are the fibroblast growth factors (FGFs), which control the migration, proliferation, differentiation and survival of different cell types. In addition, FGFs influence the expression of other factors involved in the regenerative response. Here, we summarize current knowledge on the roles of endogenous FGFs in regeneration and repair in different organisms and in different tissues and organs. Gaining a better understanding of these FGF activities is important for appropriate modulation of FGF signaling after injury to prevent impaired healing and to promote organ regeneration in humans. © 2017. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

A framework for the identification of hotspots of climate change risk for mammals.

PubMed

Pacifici, Michela; Visconti, Piero; Rondinini, Carlo

2018-04-01

As rates of global warming increase rapidly, identifying species at risk of decline due to climate impacts and the factors affecting this risk have become key challenges in ecology and conservation biology. Here, we present a framework for assessing three components of climate-related risk for species: vulnerability, exposure and hazard. We used the relationship between the observed response of species to climate change and a set of intrinsic traits (e.g. weaning age) and extrinsic factors (e.g. precipitation seasonality within a species geographic range) to predict, respectively, the vulnerability and exposure of all data-sufficient terrestrial non-volant mammals (3,953 species). Combining this information with hazard (the magnitude of projected climate change within a species geographic range), we identified global hotspots of species at risk from climate change that includes the western Amazon basin, south-western Kenya, north-eastern Tanzania, north-eastern South Africa, Yunnan province in China, and mountain chains in Papua-New Guinea. Our framework identifies priority areas for monitoring climate change effects on species and directing climate mitigation actions for biodiversity. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate change and older Americans: state of the science.

PubMed

Gamble, Janet L; Hurley, Bradford J; Schultz, Peter A; Jaglom, Wendy S; Krishnan, Nisha; Harris, Melinda

2013-01-01

Older adults make up 13% of the U.S. population, but are projected to account for 20% by 2040. Coinciding with this demographic shift, the rate of climate change is accelerating, bringing rising temperatures; increased risk of floods, droughts, and wildfires; stronger tropical storms and hurricanes; rising sea levels; and other climate-related hazards. Older Americans are expected to be located in places that may be relatively more affected by climate change, including coastal zones and large metropolitan areas. The objective of this review is to assess the vulnerability of older Americans to climate change and to identify opportunities for adaptation. We performed an extensive literature survey and summarized key findings related to demographics; climate stressors relevant to older adults; factors contributing to exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity; and adaptation strategies. A range of physiological and socioeconomic factors make older adults especially sensitive to and/or at risk for exposure to heat waves and other extreme weather events (e.g., hurricanes, floods, droughts), poor air quality, and infectious diseases. Climate change may increase the frequency or severity of these events. Older Americans are likely to be especially vulnerable to stressors associated with climate change. Although a growing body of evidence reports the adverse effects of heat on the health of older adults, research gaps remain for other climate-related risks. We need additional study of the vulnerability of older adults and the interplay of vulnerability, resilience, and adaptive responses to projected climate stressors.

Tissue Factor-Factor VII Complex As a Key Regulator of Ovarian Cancer Phenotypes.

PubMed

Koizume, Shiro; Miyagi, Yohei

2015-01-01

Tissue factor (TF) is an integral membrane protein widely expressed in normal human cells. Blood coagulation factor VII (fVII) is a key enzyme in the extrinsic coagulation cascade that is predominantly secreted by hepatocytes and released into the bloodstream. The TF-fVII complex is aberrantly expressed on the surface of cancer cells, including ovarian cancer cells. This procoagulant complex can initiate intracellular signaling mechanisms, resulting in malignant phenotypes. Cancer tissues are chronically exposed to hypoxia. TF and fVII can be induced in response to hypoxia in ovarian cancer cells at the gene expression level, leading to the autonomous production of the TF-fVII complex. Here, we discuss the roles of the TF-fVII complex in the induction of malignant phenotypes in ovarian cancer cells. The hypoxic nature of ovarian cancer tissues and the roles of TF expression in endometriosis are discussed. Arguments will be extended to potential strategies to treat ovarian cancers based on our current knowledge of TF-fVII function.

Planning for Production of Freshwater Fish Fry in a Variable Climate in Northern Thailand.

PubMed

Uppanunchai, Anuwat; Apirumanekul, Chusit; Lebel, Louis

2015-10-01

Provision of adequate numbers of quality fish fry is often a key constraint on aquaculture development. The management of climate-related risks in hatchery and nursery management operations has not received much attention, but is likely to be a key element of successful adaptation to climate change in the aquaculture sector. This study explored the sensitivities and vulnerability of freshwater fish fry production in 15 government hatcheries across Northern Thailand to climate variability and evaluated the robustness of the proposed adaptation measures. This study found that hatcheries have to consider several factors when planning production, including: taking into account farmer demand; production capacity of the hatchery; availability of water resources; local climate and other area factors; and, individual species requirements. Nile tilapia is the most commonly cultured species of freshwater fish. Most fry production is done in the wet season, as cold spells and drought conditions disrupt hatchery production and reduce fish farm demand in the dry season. In the wet season, some hatcheries are impacted by floods. Using a set of scenarios to capture major uncertainties and variability in climate, this study suggests a couple of strategies that should help make hatchery operations more climate change resilient, in particular: improving hatchery operations and management to deal better with risks under current climate variability; improving monitoring and information systems so that emerging climate-related risks are known sooner and understood better; and, research and development on alternative species, breeding programs, improving water management and other features of hatchery operations.

Climatic factors are associated with childhood eczema prevalence in US

PubMed Central

Silverberg, Jonathan I.; Hanifin, Jon; Simpson, Eric L.

2013-01-01

Atopic dermatitis (AD, atopic eczema) is driven by a complex relationship between genetic predisposition and environmental exposures. We sought to determine the impact of specific climatic factors on the US prevalence of AD. We used a merged analysis of the 2007 National Survey of Children's Health from a representative sample of 91,642 children age 0–17 years and the 2006–2007 National Climate Data Center and Weather Service measurements of relative humidity (%), indoor heating degree days (HDD), clear sky UV indices ozone levels, and outdoor air temperature. As a proxy for AD, we used an affirmative response to the NSCH survey question asking whether the participant’s child has been given a doctor diagnosis of “eczema or any other kind of skin allergy” in the previous 12 months. In multivariate models controlling for sex, race/ethnicity, age and household income, eczema prevalence was significantly lower with highest-quartile mean annual relative humidity (logistic regression, adjusted odds ratio [95% confidence interval]=0.82 [0.71–0.96], P=0.01) and issued UV index (0.73 [0.64–0.84], P<0.0001), and with two other factors associated with increased UV exposure. Eczema prevalence was decreased with highest-quartile air temperature (0.80 [0.70–0.92], P=0.002), but increased with 3rd–quartile mean annual HDD (1.26 [1.11–1.43], P=0.0003). This study provides evidence of climate influences on the US prevalence of childhood eczema. PMID:23334343

Site-specific climate analysis elucidates revegetation challenges for post-mining landscapes in eastern Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Audet, P.; Arnold, S.; Lechner, A. M.; Baumgartl, T.

2013-10-01

In eastern Australia, the availability of water is critical for the successful rehabilitation of post-mining landscapes and climatic characteristics of this diverse geographical region are closely defined by factors such as erratic rainfall and periods of drought and flooding. Despite this, specific metrics of climate patterning are seldom incorporated into the initial design of current post-mining land rehabilitation strategies. Our study proposes that a few common rainfall parameters can be combined and rated using arbitrary rainfall thresholds to characterise bioregional climate sensitivity relevant to the rehabilitation these landscapes. This approach included assessments of annual rainfall depth, average recurrence interval of prolonged low intensity rainfall, average recurrence intervals of short or prolonged high intensity events, median period without rain (or water-deficit) and standard deviation for this period in order to address climatic factors such as total water availability, seasonality and intensity - which were selected as potential proxies of both short- and long-term biological sensitivity to climate within the context of post-disturbance ecological development and recovery. Following our survey of available climate data, we derived site "climate sensitivity" indexes and compared the performance of 9 ongoing mine sites: Weipa, Mt. Isa and Cloncurry, Eromanga, Kidston, the Bowen Basin (Curragh), Tarong, North Stradbroke Island, and the Newnes Plateau. The sites were then ranked from most-to-least sensitive and compared with natural bioregional patterns of vegetation density using mean NDVI. It was determined that regular rainfall and relatively short periods of water-deficit were key characteristics of sites having less sensitivity to climate - as found among the relatively more temperate inland mining locations. Whereas, high rainfall variability, frequently occurring high intensity events, and (or) prolonged seasonal drought were primary

Coupled Effects of Climatic and Socio-economic Factors on Winter Cropping in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jain, M.; Mondal, P.; Galford, G. L.; DeFries, R. S.

2015-12-01

India is predicted to be one of the most vulnerable regions in terms of agricultural sensitivity to future climate changes. Approximately 69% of India's population is rural, and over 55% of the working population relies on agriculture for sustenance and livelihoods. Indian smallholder farmers who own less than 2 ha of farmland represent 78% of the total Indian farmers and produce 41% of the country's food crops. These smallholder farmers are among some of the most vulnerable communities to climatic and economic changes due to limited access to technology, infrastructure, markets, and institutional or financial support in the case of adverse climatic events. Baseline information on agricultural sensitivity to climate variability will provide useful information for regional-level, and eventually state- and national-level, strategies and policies that promote adaption to climate variability. We use a decade of remote sensing analysis of cropping patterns and climatic factors along with census data for irrigation and demographic factors to understand winter cropping trajectories across agro-ecological zones in India. Findings from multiple agro-ecological zones indicate that there are three primary trajectories in winter cropping in India - increasing, fluctuating, and decreasing. In the Central Indian Highlands, for example, the most dominant trend is that of fluctuating cropped area, ranging between ~37,300 km2 in 2010 and ~21,100 km2 in 2013, which is associated with village-level access to irrigation and local labor dynamics. Clay soil type and increasing irrigation coverage were associated with intensification. Yet, suitable soil type and access to irrigation do not reduce vulnerability to high daytime temperatures that is negatively associated with winter crop cover. With pronounced winter warming projected in the coming decades, effective adaptation by smallholder farmers would require additional strategies, such as access to fine-scale temperature forecasts

The Relationship of Bureaucratic Structure to School Climate: An Exploratory Factor Analysis of Construct Validity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lennon, Patricia A.

2010-01-01

This researcher examined the relationship of bureaucratic structure to school climate by means of an exploratory factor analysis of a measure of bureaucracy developed by Hoy and Sweetland (2000) and the four dimensional measure of climate developed by Hoy, Smith, and Sweetland (2002). Since there had been no other empirical studies whose authors…

Climates Past, Present, and Yet-to-Come Shape Climate Change Vulnerabilities.

PubMed

Nadeau, Christopher P; Urban, Mark C; Bridle, Jon R

2017-10-01

Climate change is altering life at multiple scales, from genes to ecosystems. Predicting the vulnerability of populations to climate change is crucial to mitigate negative impacts. We suggest that regional patterns of spatial and temporal climatic variation scaled to the traits of an organism can predict where and why populations are most vulnerable to climate change. Specifically, historical climatic variation affects the sensitivity and response capacity of populations to climate change by shaping traits and the genetic variation in those traits. Present and future climatic variation can affect both climate change exposure and population responses. We provide seven predictions for how climatic variation might affect the vulnerability of populations to climate change and suggest key directions for future research. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate impact on groundwater systems: the past is the key to the future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Ploeg, Martine; Cendón, Dioni; Haldorsen, Sylvi; Chen, Jinyao; Gurdak, Jason; Tujchneider, Ofelia; Vaikmäe, Rein; Purtschert, Roland; Chkir Ben Jemâa, Najiba

2013-04-01

important focus, little attention has been given to groundwater as a potential record of past climate variations. A groundwater system's history is vital to forecast its vulnerability under future and potentially adverse climatic changes. By processing groundwater information from vast regions and different continents, recharge and palaeoclimate can be correlated at a global scale. To successfully evaluate the sustainability of groundwater resources, "the past is the key to the future". To address the identified lack of palaeoclimatic data available from groundwater studies, a global collaboration has been set-up in 2011 called Groundwater@Global Palaeoclimate Signals (www.gw-gps.com), and has already more than 70 participants from 5 continents. Since 2012 G@GPS receives seed funding to support meetings by the International Geoscience Programme, the International Union for Quaternary Research and UNESCO-GRAPHIC International Hydrologic Project. This collaboration targets groundwater basins on five continents —Africa, America, Asia, Australia, Europe — containing vast groundwater resources with an estimated dependence of tens of millions of people. We will present G@GPS, show examples from groundwater basins, and discuss possibilities to integrate groundwater information from these basins. References Cartwright, I. et al. 2007. Consraining modern and historical recharge from bore hydrographs, 3H, 14C, and chloride concentrations: Applications to dual-porosity aquifers in dryland salinity areas, Murray Basin, Australia. J. Hydrol. 332: 69-92. Clark, I. and P. Fritz. 1997. Environmental isotopes in hydrogeology, Lewis Publishers. Collon, P. et al. 2000. 81Kr in the Great Artesian Basin, Australia: a new method for dating very old groundwater. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 182: 103-113. Currell, M. J. et al. 2010. Recharge history and controls on groundwater quality in the Yuncheng Basin, north China, J. Hydrol. 385: 216-229. Davison, M. R. and P. L. Airey. 1982. The

Diagnosing climate change impacts and identifying adaptation strategies by involving key stakeholder organisations and farmers in Sikkim, India: Challenges and opportunities.

PubMed

Azhoni, Adani; Goyal, Manish Kumar

2018-06-01

Narrowing the gap between research, policy making and implementing adaptation remains a challenge in many parts of the world where climate change is likely to severely impact water security. This research aims to narrow this gap by matching the adaptation strategies being framed by policy makers to that of the perspectives of development agencies, researchers and farmers in the Himalayan state of Sikkim in India. Our case study examined the perspectives of various stakeholders for climate change impacts, current adaptation strategies, knowledge gaps and adaptation barriers, particularly in the context of implementing the Sikkim State Action Plan on Climate Change through semi-structured interviews carried out with decision makers in the Sikkim State Government, researchers, consultants, local academia, development agencies and farmers. Using Stakeholders Network Analysis tools, this research unravels the complexities of perceiving climate change impacts, identifying strategies, and implementing adaptation. While farmers are less aware about the global phenomenon of climate change impacts for water security, their knowledge of the local conditions and their close interaction with the State Government Agriculture Department provides them opportunities. Although important steps are being initiated through the Sikkim State Action Plan on Climate Change it is yet to deliver effective means of adaptation implementation and hence, strengthening the networks of close coordination between the various implementing agencies will pay dividends. Knowledge gaps and the need for capacity building identified in this research, based on the understandings of key stakeholders are highly relevant to both the research community and for informing policy. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Association of climatic factors with infectious diseases in the Arctic and subarctic region – a systematic review

PubMed Central

Hedlund, Christina; Blomstedt, Yulia; Schumann, Barbara

2014-01-01

Background The Arctic and subarctic area are likely to be highly affected by climate change, with possible impacts on human health due to effects on food security and infectious diseases. Objectives To investigate the evidence for an association between climatic factors and infectious diseases, and to identify the most climate-sensitive diseases and vulnerable populations in the Arctic and subarctic region. Methods A systematic review was conducted. A search was made in PubMed, with the last update in May 2013. Inclusion criteria included human cases of infectious disease as outcome, climate or weather factor as exposure, and Arctic or subarctic areas as study origin. Narrative reviews, case reports, and projection studies were excluded. Abstracts and selected full texts were read and evaluated by two independent readers. A data collection sheet and an adjusted version of the SIGN methodology checklist were used to assess the quality grade of each article. Results In total, 1953 abstracts were initially found, of which finally 29 articles were included. Almost half of the studies were carried out in Canada (n=14), the rest from Sweden (n=6), Finland (n=4), Norway (n=2), Russia (n=2), and Alaska, US (n=1). Articles were analyzed by disease group: food- and waterborne diseases, vector-borne diseases, airborne viral- and airborne bacterial diseases. Strong evidence was found in our review for an association between climatic factors and food- and waterborne diseases. The scientific evidence for a link between climate and specific vector- and rodent-borne diseases was weak due to that only a few diseases being addressed in more than one publication, although several articles were of very high quality. Air temperature and humidity seem to be important climatic factors to investigate further for viral- and bacterial airborne diseases, but from our results no conclusion about a causal relationship could be drawn. Conclusions More studies of high quality are needed to

Key factors controlling ozone production in wildfire plumes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaffe, D. A.

2017-12-01

Production of ozone in wildfire plumes is complex and highly variable. As a wildfire plume mixes into an urban area, ozone is often, but not always, produced. We have examined multiple factors that can help explain some of this variability. This includes CO/NOy enhancement ratios, photolysis rates, PAN/NOy fraction and degree of NOx oxidation. While fast ozone production is well known, on average, ozone production increases downwind in a plume for several days. Peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) is likely a key cause for delayed ozone formation. Recent observations at the Mt. Bachelor Observatory a mountain top observatory relatively remote from nearby anthropogenic influence and in Boise Idaho, an urban setting, show the importance of PAN in wildfire plumes. From these observations we can devise a conceptual model that considers four factors in ozone production: NOx/VOC emission ratio; degree of NOx oxidation; transport time and pathway; and mixing with urban pollutants. Using this conceptual model, we can then devise a lagrangian modeling strategy that can be used to improve our understanding of ozone production in wildfire plumes, both in remote and urban settings.

The accuracy of climate models' simulated season lengths and the effectiveness of grid scale correction factors

DOE PAGES

Winterhalter, Wade E.

2011-09-01

Global climate change is expected to impact biological populations through a variety of mechanisms including increases in the length of their growing season. Climate models are useful tools for predicting how season length might change in the future. However, the accuracy of these models tends to be rather low at regional geographic scales. Here, I determined the ability of several atmosphere and ocean general circulating models (AOGCMs) to accurately simulate historical season lengths for a temperate ectotherm across the continental United States. I also evaluated the effectiveness of regional-scale correction factors to improve the accuracy of these models. I foundmore » that both the accuracy of simulated season lengths and the effectiveness of the correction factors to improve the model's accuracy varied geographically and across models. These results suggest that regional specific correction factors do not always adequately remove potential discrepancies between simulated and historically observed environmental parameters. As such, an explicit evaluation of the correction factors' effectiveness should be included in future studies of global climate change's impact on biological populations.« less

Key Educational Factors in the Education of Students with a Medical Condition

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Capurso, Michele; Dennis, John L.

2017-01-01

The education of children with a medical condition represents a unique educational context. The key educational factors that can help these children continue their education despite the burdens associated with their illness were discussed and analysed by a pool of experts for an EU funded project. In this context, "relationships,"…

Upper Colorado River Basin Climate Effects Network

USGS Publications Warehouse

Belnap, Jayne; Campbell, Donald; Kershner, Jeff

2011-01-01

The Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) Climate Effects Network (CEN) is a science team established to provide information to assist land managers in future decision making processes by providing a better understanding of how future climate change, land use, invasive species, altered fire cycles, human systems, and the interactions among these factors will affect ecosystems and the services they provide to human communities. The goals of this group are to (1) identify science needs and provide tools to assist land managers in addressing these needs, (2) provide a Web site where users can access information pertinent to this region, and (3) provide managers technical assistance when needed. Answers to the team's working science questions are intended to address how interactions among climate change, land use, and management practices may affect key aspects of water availability, ecosystem changes, and societal needs within the UCRB.

Part II--Factors associated with school nurse ratios: key state informants' perceptions.

PubMed

Maughan, Erin

2009-08-01

This paper is the second of a two-part series examining factors influencing school nurse to pupil staffing ratios. The paper reports data from a qualitative study exploring the social and political factors that potentially influence ratios. Interviews were conducted with 30 key state informants from these states. Content analysis of the data identified common themes. Positive factors reported to influence ratios included: the approach taken to effect change, value placed upon school nurses, local support (from both educators and parents) and community buy-in, fear of litigation, and dynamic leadership. Barriers to improving ratios included: lack of funding and misunderstanding of the role of the school nurse. Philosophical beliefs and state geography were "swing" factors that influenced staffing positively or negatively. This study adds to our knowledge of the factors influencing staffing and highlights important social and political factors that school nurses can target to improve nurse to pupil ratios.

Predictors of public climate change awareness and risk perception around the world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Tien Ming; Markowitz, Ezra M.; Howe, Peter D.; Ko, Chia-Ying; Leiserowitz, Anthony A.

2015-11-01

Climate change is a threat to human societies and natural ecosystems, yet public opinion research finds that public awareness and concern vary greatly. Here, using an unprecedented survey of 119 countries, we determine the relative influence of socio-demographic characteristics, geography, perceived well-being, and beliefs on public climate change awareness and risk perceptions at national scales. Worldwide, educational attainment is the single strongest predictor of climate change awareness. Understanding the anthropogenic cause of climate change is the strongest predictor of climate change risk perceptions, particularly in Latin America and Europe, whereas perception of local temperature change is the strongest predictor in many African and Asian countries. However, other key factors associated with public awareness and risk perceptions highlight the need to develop tailored climate communication strategies for individual nations. The results suggest that improving basic education, climate literacy, and public understanding of the local dimensions of climate change are vital to public engagement and support for climate action.

Relative effects of climatic and local factors on fire occurrence in boreal forest landscapes of northeastern China.

PubMed

Wu, Zhiwei; He, Hong S; Yang, Jian; Liu, Zhihua; Liang, Yu

2014-09-15

Fire significantly affects species composition, structure, and ecosystem processes in boreal forests. Our study objective was to identify the relative effects of climate, vegetation, topography, and human activity on fire occurrence in Chinese boreal forest landscapes. We used historical fire ignition for 1966-2005 and the statistical method of Kernel Density Estimation to derive fire-occurrence density (number of fires/km(2)). The Random Forest models were used to quantify the relative effects of climate, vegetation, topography, and human activity on fire-occurrence density. Our results showed that fire-occurrence density tended to be spatially clustered. Human-caused fire occurrence was highly clustered at the southern part of the region, where human population density is high (comprising about 75% of the area's population). In the north-central areas where elevations are the highest in the region and less densely populated, lightning-caused fires were clustered. Climate factors (e.g., fine fuel and duff moisture content) were important at both regional and landscape scales. Human activity factors (e.g., distance to nearest settlement and road) were secondary to climate as the primary fire occurrence factors. Predictions of fire regimes often assume a strong linkage between climate and fire but usually with less emphasis placed on the effects of local factors such as human activity. We therefore suggest that accurate forecasting of fire regime should include human influences such as those measured by forest proximity to roads and human settlements. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Revised U.S. Climate Science Plan Still Lacking in Key Areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Showstack, Randy

2004-03-01

A U.S. National Research Council committee has found that a revised strategic plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) includes elements ``that could permit it to effectively guide research on climate and associated global changes over the next decades.'' However, the committee noted that the revision, issued by the CCSP, faces major hurdles related to funding, program priorities, management structure, and maintaining political independence.

Effect of Climatic Factors on Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in South Korea, 2010-2013.

PubMed

Kim, Bryan Inho; Ki, Hyunok; Park, Sunhee; Cho, Eunhi; Chun, Byung Chul

2016-01-01

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) causes characteristic blisters and sores mainly in infants and children, and has been monitored in South Korea through sentinel surveillance since 2009. We described the patterns of HFMD occurrence and analyzed the effect of climatic factors on national HFMD incidence. Weekly clinically diagnosed HFMD case rates (per 1,000 outpatients) in sentinel sites and weekly climatic factors, such as average temperature, relative humidity, duration of sunshine, precipitation, and wind speed from 2010 to 2013, were used in this study. A generalized additive model with smoothing splines and climatic variables with time lags of up to 2 weeks were considered in the modeling process. To account for long-term trends and seasonality, we controlled for each year and their corresponding weeks. The autocorrelation issue was also adjusted by using autocorrelation variables. At an average temperature below 18°C, the HFMD rate increased by 10.3% for every 1°C rise in average temperature (95% confidence interval (CI): 8.4, 12.3%). We also saw a 6.6% increase in HFMD rate (95% CI: 3.6, 9.7%) with every 1% increase in relative humidity under 65%, with a 1.5% decrease in HFMD rate observed (95% CI: 0.4, 2.7%) with each 1% humidity increase above 65%. Modeling results have shown that average temperature and relative humidity are related to HFMD rate. Additional research on the environmental risk factors of HFMD transmission is required to understand the underlying mechanism between climatic factors and HFMD incidence.

Identification of Climatic Factors Affecting the Epidemiology of Human West Nile Virus Infections in Northern Greece

PubMed Central

Stilianakis, Nikolaos I.; Syrris, Vasileios; Petroliagkis, Thomas; Pärt, Peeter; Gewehr, Sandra; Kalaitzopoulou, Stella; Mourelatos, Spiros; Baka, Agoritsa; Pervanidou, Danai; Vontas, John; Hadjichristodoulou, Christos

2016-01-01

Climate can affect the geographic and seasonal patterns of vector-borne disease incidence such as West Nile Virus (WNV) infections. We explore the association between climatic factors and the occurrence of West Nile fever (WNF) or West Nile neuro-invasive disease (WNND) in humans in Northern Greece over the years 2010–2014. Time series over a period of 30 years (1979–2008) of climatic data of air temperature, relative humidity, soil temperature, volumetric soil water content, wind speed, and precipitation representing average climate were obtained utilising the ECMWF’s (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) system allowing for a homogeneous set of data in time and space. We analysed data of reported human cases of WNF/WNND and Culex mosquitoes in Northern Greece. Quantitative assessment resulted in identifying associations between the above climatic variables and reported human cases of WNF/WNND. A substantial fraction of the cases was linked to the upper percentiles of the distribution of air and soil temperature for the period 1979–2008 and the lower percentiles of relative humidity and soil water content. A statistically relevant relationship between the mean weekly value climatic anomalies of wind speed (negative association), relative humidity (negative association) and air temperature (positive association) over 30 years, and reported human cases of WNF/WNND during the period 2010–2014 could be shown. A negative association between the presence of WNV infected Culex mosquitoes and wind speed could be identified. The statistically significant associations could also be confirmed for the week the WNF/WNND human cases appear and when a time lag of up to three weeks was considered. Similar statistically significant associations were identified with the weekly anomalies of the maximum and minimum values of the above climatic factors. Utilising the ERA-Interim re-analysis methodology it could be shown that besides

Identification of Climatic Factors Affecting the Epidemiology of Human West Nile Virus Infections in Northern Greece.

PubMed

Stilianakis, Nikolaos I; Syrris, Vasileios; Petroliagkis, Thomas; Pärt, Peeter; Gewehr, Sandra; Kalaitzopoulou, Stella; Mourelatos, Spiros; Baka, Agoritsa; Pervanidou, Danai; Vontas, John; Hadjichristodoulou, Christos

2016-01-01

Climate can affect the geographic and seasonal patterns of vector-borne disease incidence such as West Nile Virus (WNV) infections. We explore the association between climatic factors and the occurrence of West Nile fever (WNF) or West Nile neuro-invasive disease (WNND) in humans in Northern Greece over the years 2010-2014. Time series over a period of 30 years (1979-2008) of climatic data of air temperature, relative humidity, soil temperature, volumetric soil water content, wind speed, and precipitation representing average climate were obtained utilising the ECMWF's (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) system allowing for a homogeneous set of data in time and space. We analysed data of reported human cases of WNF/WNND and Culex mosquitoes in Northern Greece. Quantitative assessment resulted in identifying associations between the above climatic variables and reported human cases of WNF/WNND. A substantial fraction of the cases was linked to the upper percentiles of the distribution of air and soil temperature for the period 1979-2008 and the lower percentiles of relative humidity and soil water content. A statistically relevant relationship between the mean weekly value climatic anomalies of wind speed (negative association), relative humidity (negative association) and air temperature (positive association) over 30 years, and reported human cases of WNF/WNND during the period 2010-2014 could be shown. A negative association between the presence of WNV infected Culex mosquitoes and wind speed could be identified. The statistically significant associations could also be confirmed for the week the WNF/WNND human cases appear and when a time lag of up to three weeks was considered. Similar statistically significant associations were identified with the weekly anomalies of the maximum and minimum values of the above climatic factors. Utilising the ERA-Interim re-analysis methodology it could be shown that besides air

Climate Change and Older Americans: State of the Science

PubMed Central

Hurley, Bradford J.; Schultz, Peter A.; Jaglom, Wendy S.; Krishnan, Nisha; Harris, Melinda

2012-01-01

Background: Older adults make up 13% of the U.S. population, but are projected to account for 20% by 2040. Coinciding with this demographic shift, the rate of climate change is accelerating, bringing rising temperatures; increased risk of floods, droughts, and wildfires; stronger tropical storms and hurricanes; rising sea levels; and other climate-related hazards. Older Americans are expected to be located in places that may be relatively more affected by climate change, including coastal zones and large metropolitan areas. Objective: The objective of this review is to assess the vulnerability of older Americans to climate change and to identify opportunities for adaptation. Methods: We performed an extensive literature survey and summarized key findings related to demographics; climate stressors relevant to older adults; factors contributing to exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity; and adaptation strategies. Discussion: A range of physiological and socioeconomic factors make older adults especially sensitive to and/or at risk for exposure to heat waves and other extreme weather events (e.g., hurricanes, floods, droughts), poor air quality, and infectious diseases. Climate change may increase the frequency or severity of these events. Conclusions: Older Americans are likely to be especially vulnerable to stressors associated with climate change. Although a growing body of evidence reports the adverse effects of heat on the health of older adults, research gaps remain for other climate-related risks. We need additional study of the vulnerability of older adults and the interplay of vulnerability, resilience, and adaptive responses to projected climate stressors. PMID:23033457

The complex relationship between climate and sugar maple health: Climate change implications in Vermont for a key northern hardwood species

Treesearch

Evan M. Oswald; Jennifer Pontius; Shelly A. Rayback; Paul G. Schaberg; Sandra H. Wilmot; Lesley-Ann Dupigny-Giroux

2018-01-01

This study compared 141 ecologically relevant climate metrics to field assessments of sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.) canopy condition across Vermont, USA from 1988 to 2012. After removing the influence of disturbance events during this time period to isolate the impact of climate, we identified five climate metrics that were significantly...

The Medieval Climate Anomaly and Byzantium: A review of the evidence on climatic fluctuations, economic performance and societal change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xoplaki, Elena; Fleitmann, Dominik; Luterbacher, Juerg; Wagner, Sebastian; Haldon, John F.; Zorita, Eduardo; Telelis, Ioannis; Toreti, Andrea; Izdebski, Adam

2016-03-01

interdisciplinary analysis is based on all available sources of information on the climate and society of Byzantium, that is textual (documentary), archaeological, environmental, climate and climate model-based evidence about the nature and extent of climate variability in the eastern Mediterranean. The key challenge was, therefore, to assess the relative influence to be ascribed to climate variability and change on the one hand, and on the other to the anthropogenic factors in the evolution of Byzantine state and society (such as invasions, changes in international or regional market demand and patterns of production and consumption, etc.). The focus of this interdisciplinary study was to address the possible causal relationships between climatic and socio-economic change and to assess the resilience of the Byzantine socio-economic system in the context of climate change impacts.

The Medieval Climate Anomaly and Byzantium: A review of the evidence on climatic fluctuations, economic performance and societal change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xoplaki, Elena; Fleitmann, Dominik; Luterbacher, Juerg; Wagner, Sebastian; Haldon, John F.; Zorita, Eduardo; Telelis, Ioannis; Toreti, Andrea; Izdebski, Adam

2016-04-01

interdisciplinary analysis is based on all available sources of information on the climate and society of Byzantium, that is textual (documentary), archaeological, environmental, climate and climate model-based evidence about the nature and extent of climate variability in the eastern Mediterranean. The key challenge was, therefore, to assess the relative influence to be ascribed to climate variability and change on the one hand, and on the other to the anthropogenic factors in the evolution of Byzantine state and society (such as invasions, changes in international or regional market demand and patterns of production and consumption, etc.). The focus of this interdisciplinary study was to address the possible causal relationships between climatic and socio-economic change and to assess the resilience of the Byzantine socio-economic system in the context of climate change impacts.

Climate Change Observation Accuracy: Requirements and Economic Value

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wielicki, Bruce; Cooke, Roger; Golub, Alexander; Baize, Rosemary; Mlynczak, Martin; Lukashin, Constantin; Thome, Kurt; Shea, Yolanda; Kopp, Greg; Pilewskie, Peter;

State Wildlife Action Plans as Tools for Adapting to a Continuously Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Metivier, D. W.; Yocum, H.; Ray, A. J.

2015-12-01

Public land management plans are potentially powerful policies for building sustainability and adaptive capacity. Land managers are recognizing the need to respond to numerous climate change impacts on natural and human systems. For the first time, in 2015, the federal government required each state to incorporate climate change into their State Wildlife Action Plans (SWAP) as a condition for funding. As important land management tools, SWAPs have the potential to guide state agencies in shaping and implementing practices for climate change adaptation. Intended to be revised every ten years, SWAPs can change as conditions and understanding of climate change evolves. This study asks what practices are states using to integrate climate change, and how does this vary between states? To answer this question, we conducted a broad analysis among seven states (CO, MT, NE, ND, SD, UT, WY) and a more in-depth analysis of four states (CO, ND, SD, WY). We use seven key factors that represent best practices for incorporating climate change identified in the literature. These best practices are species prioritization, key habitats, threats, monitoring, partnerships and participation, identification of management options, and implementation of management options. The in-depth analysis focuses on how states are using climate change information for specific habitats addressed in the plans. We find that states are integrating climate change in many different ways, showing varying degrees of sophistication and preparedness. We summarize different practices and highlight opportunities to improve the effectiveness of plans through: communication tools across state lines and stakeholders, explicit targeting of key habitats, enforcement and monitoring progress and success, and conducting vulnerability analyses that incorporate topics beyond climate and include other drivers, trajectories, and implications of historic and future land-use change.

School Climate Improvement Action Guide for Working with Families. School Climate Improvement Resource Package

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Center on Safe Supportive Learning Environments, 2017

2017-01-01

Improving school climate takes time and commitment from a variety of people in a variety of roles. This document outlines how family members--including guardians of students--can support school climate improvements. Key action steps are provided for the following strategies: (1) Participate in planning for school climate improvements; (2) Engage…

Multidirectional abundance shifts among North American birds and the relative influence of multifaceted climate factors.

PubMed

Huang, Qiongyu; Sauer, John R; Dubayah, Ralph O

2017-09-01

Shifts in species distributions are major fingerprint of climate change. Examining changes in species abundance structures at a continental scale enables robust evaluation of climate change influences, but few studies have conducted these evaluations due to limited data and methodological constraints. In this study, we estimate temporal changes in abundance from North American Breeding Bird Survey data at the scale of physiographic strata to examine the relative influence of different components of climatic factors and evaluate the hypothesis that shifting species distributions are multidirectional in resident bird species in North America. We quantify the direction and velocity of the abundance shifts of 57 permanent resident birds over 44 years using a centroid analysis. For species with significant abundance shifts in the centroid analysis, we conduct a more intensive correlative analysis to identify climate components most strongly associated with composite change of abundance within strata. Our analysis focus on two contrasts: the relative importance of climate extremes vs. averages, and of temperature vs. precipitation in strength of association with abundance change. Our study shows that 36 species had significant abundance shifts over the study period. The average velocity of the centroid is 5.89 km·yr -1 . The shifted distance on average covers 259 km, 9% of range extent. Our results strongly suggest that the climate change fingerprint in studied avian distributions is multidirectional. Among 6 directions with significant abundance shifts, the northwestward shift was observed in the largest number of species (n = 13). The temperature/average climate model consistently has greater predictive ability than the precipitation/extreme climate model in explaining strata-level abundance change. Our study shows heterogeneous avian responses to recent environmental changes. It highlights needs for more species-specific approaches to examine contributing

Spatial and temporal evolution of climatic factors and its impacts on potential evapotranspiration in Loess Plateau of Northern Shaanxi, China.

PubMed

Li, C; Wu, P T; Li, X L; Zhou, T W; Sun, S K; Wang, Y B; Luan, X B; Yu, X

2017-07-01

Agriculture is very sensitive to climate change, and correct forecasting of climate change is a great help to accurate allocation of irrigation water. The use of irrigation water is influenced by crop water demand and precipitation. Potential evapotranspiration (ET 0 ) is a measure of the ability of the atmosphere to remove water from the surface through the processes of evaporation and transpiration, assuming no control on water supply. It plays an important role in assessing crop water requirements, regional dry-wet conditions, and other factors of water resource management. This study analyzed the spatial and temporal evolution processes and characteristics of major meteorological parameters at 10 stations in the Loess Plateau of northern Shaanxi (LPNS). By using the Mann-Kendall trend test with trend-free pre-whitening and the ArcGIS platform, the potential evapotranspiration of each station was quantified by using the Penman-Monteith equation, and the effects of climatic factors on potential evapotranspiration were assessed by analyzing the contribution rate and sensitivity of the climatic factors. The results showed that the climate in LPNS has become warmer and drier. In terms of the sensitivity of ET 0 to the variation of each climatic factor in LPNS, relative humidity (0.65) had the highest sensitivity, followed by daily maximum temperature, wind speed, sunshine hours, and daily minimum temperature (-0.05). In terms of the contribution rate of each factor to ET 0 , daily maximum temperature (5.16%) had the highest value, followed by daily minimum temperature, sunshine hours, relative humidity, and wind speed (1.14%). This study provides a reference for the management of agricultural water resources and for countermeasures to climate change. According to the climate change and the characteristics of the study area, farmers in the region should increase irrigation to guarantee crop water demand. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Climate Change, Agricultural Innovation and Exchange across Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DAlpoim Guedes, J. A.; Bocinsky, R. K.

2017-12-01

Ancient farmers experienced climate change at the local level: through variations in the yields of their staple crops. However, archaeologists have had difficulty in determining where, when and how changes in climate impacted ancient farmers. We model how several key transitions in climate impacted the productivity of five rain-fed crops across Eurasia. Cooling events between 3750 and 3000 cal. BP lead humans in parts of the Tibetan Plateau and in Central Asia to diversify their crops. A second event at 2000 cal. BP lead farmers in Central China to also diversify their cropping systems and to develop man-made systems that allowed transport of grains from Southern to Northern China. In other areas where crop returns fared even worse, humans reduced their risk by increasing investment in nomadic pastoralism and developing long distance networks of trade that coalesced into the Silk Road. By translating changes in climatic variables into factors that mattered to ancient farmers, we situate the adaptive strategies they developed to deal with variance in crop returns in the context of environmental and climatic changes.

Evaluating the effects of climate change on summertime ozone using a relative reduction factor approach for policymakers

EPA Science Inventory

The impact of climate change on surface-level ozone is examined through a multiscale modeling effort that linked global and regional climate models to drive air quality model simulations. Results are quantified in terms of the relative response factor (RRFE), which estimates the ...

Patterns of Tree Species Diversity in Relation to Climatic Factors on the Sierra Madre Occidental, Mexico

PubMed Central

Silva-Flores, Ramón; Pérez-Verdín, Gustavo; Wehenkel, Christian

2014-01-01

Biological diversity can be defined as variability among living organisms from all sources, including terrestrial organisms, marine and other aquatic ecosystems, and the ecological complexes which they are part of. This includes diversity within species, between species, and of ecosystems. Numerous diversity indices combine richness and evenness in a single expression, and several climate-based explanations have been proposed to explain broad-scale diversity patterns. However, climate-based water-energy dynamics appears to be an essential factor that determines patterns of diversity. The Mexican Sierra Madre Occidental occupies an area of about 29 million hectares and is located between the Neotropical and Holarctic ecozones. It shelters a high diversity of flora, including 24 different species of Pinus (ca. 22% on the whole), 54 species of Quercus (ca. 9–14%), 7 species of Arbutus (ca. 50%) and many other trees species. The objectives of this study were to model how tree species diversity is related to climatic and geographic factors and stand density and to test the Metabolic Theory, Productivity-Diversity Hypothesis, Physiological Tolerance Hypothesis, Mid-Domain Effect, and the Water-Energy Dynamic Theory on the Sierra Madre Occidental, Durango. The results supported the Productivity-Diversity Hypothesis, Physiological Tolerance Hypothesis and Water-Energy Dynamic Theory, but not the Mid-Domain Effect or Metabolic Theory. The annual aridity index was the variable most closely related to the diversity indices analyzed. Contemporary climate was found to have moderate to strong effects on the minimum, median and maximum tree species diversity. Because water-energy dynamics provided a satisfactory explanation for the patterns of minimum, median and maximum diversity, an understanding of this factor is critical to future biodiversity research. Quantile regression of the data showed that the three diversity parameters of tree species are generally higher in cold

Patterns of tree species diversity in relation to climatic factors on the Sierra Madre Occidental, Mexico.

PubMed

Silva-Flores, Ramón; Pérez-Verdín, Gustavo; Wehenkel, Christian

2014-01-01

Biological diversity can be defined as variability among living organisms from all sources, including terrestrial organisms, marine and other aquatic ecosystems, and the ecological complexes which they are part of. This includes diversity within species, between species, and of ecosystems. Numerous diversity indices combine richness and evenness in a single expression, and several climate-based explanations have been proposed to explain broad-scale diversity patterns. However, climate-based water-energy dynamics appears to be an essential factor that determines patterns of diversity. The Mexican Sierra Madre Occidental occupies an area of about 29 million hectares and is located between the Neotropical and Holarctic ecozones. It shelters a high diversity of flora, including 24 different species of Pinus (ca. 22% on the whole), 54 species of Quercus (ca. 9-14%), 7 species of Arbutus (ca. 50%) and many other trees species. The objectives of this study were to model how tree species diversity is related to climatic and geographic factors and stand density and to test the Metabolic Theory, Productivity-Diversity Hypothesis, Physiological Tolerance Hypothesis, Mid-Domain Effect, and the Water-Energy Dynamic Theory on the Sierra Madre Occidental, Durango. The results supported the Productivity-Diversity Hypothesis, Physiological Tolerance Hypothesis and Water-Energy Dynamic Theory, but not the Mid-Domain Effect or Metabolic Theory. The annual aridity index was the variable most closely related to the diversity indices analyzed. Contemporary climate was found to have moderate to strong effects on the minimum, median and maximum tree species diversity. Because water-energy dynamics provided a satisfactory explanation for the patterns of minimum, median and maximum diversity, an understanding of this factor is critical to future biodiversity research. Quantile regression of the data showed that the three diversity parameters of tree species are generally higher in cold

Key ecological responses to nitrogen are altered by climate change

EPA Science Inventory

Here we review the effects of nitrogen and climate (e.g. temperature and precipitation) on four aspects of ecosystem structure and function including hydrologic-coupled nitrogen cycling, carbon cycling, acidification and biodiversity.

Interannual and spatial variability of maple syrup yield as related to climatic factors

PubMed Central

Houle, Daniel

2014-01-01

Sugar maple syrup production is an important economic activity for eastern Canada and the northeastern United States. Since annual variations in syrup yield have been related to climate, there are concerns about the impacts of climatic change on the industry in the upcoming decades. Although the temporal variability of syrup yield has been studied for specific sites on different time scales or for large regions, a model capable of accounting for both temporal and regional differences in yield is still lacking. In the present study, we studied the factors responsible for interregional and interannual variability in maple syrup yield over the 2001–2012 period, by combining the data from 8 Quebec regions (Canada) and 10 U.S. states. The resulting model explained 44.5% of the variability in yield. It includes the effect of climatic conditions that precede the sapflow season (variables from the previous growing season and winter), the effect of climatic conditions during the current sapflow season, and terms accounting for intercountry and temporal variability. Optimal conditions for maple syrup production appear to be spatially restricted by less favourable climate conditions occurring during the growing season in the north, and in the south, by the warmer winter and earlier spring conditions. This suggests that climate change may favor maple syrup production northwards, while southern regions are more likely to be negatively affected by adverse spring conditions. PMID:24949244

Satellite lidar and radar: Key components of the future climate observing system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winker, D. M.

2017-12-01

Cloud feedbacks represent the dominant source of uncertainties in estimates of climate sensitivity and aerosols represent the largest source of uncertainty in climate forcing. Both observation of long-term changes and observational constraints on the processes responsible for those changes are necessary. The existing 30-year record of passive satellite observations has not yet provided constraints to significantly reduce these uncertainties, though. We now have more than a decade of experience with active sensors flying in the A-Train. These new observations have demonstrated the strengths of active sensors and the benefits of continued and more advanced active sensors. This talk will discuss the multiple roles for active sensors as an essential component of a global climate observing system.

Key Factors Influencing Rapid Development of Potentially Dune-Stabilizing Moss-Dominated Crusts

PubMed Central

Bu, Chongfeng; Zhang, Kankan; Zhang, Chunyun; Wu, Shufang

2015-01-01

Biological soil crusts (BSCs) are a widespread photosynthetic ground cover in arid and semiarid areas. They have many positive ecological functions, such as increasing soil stability, and reducing water and wind erosion. Using artificial technology to achieve the rapid development of BSCs is expected to become a low-cost and highly beneficial ecological restoration measure. In the present study, typical moss-dominated crusts in a region characterized by mobile dunes (Mu Us Sandland, China) were collected, and a 40-day cultivation experiment was performed to investigate key factors, including watering frequency, light intensity and a nutrient addition, which affect the rapid development of moss crusts and their optimal combination. The results demonstrated that watering frequency and illumination had a significant positive effect (P=0.049, three-factor ANOVA) and a highly significant, complicated effect (P=0.000, three-factor ANOVA), respectively, on the plant density of bryophytes, and a highly significant positive effect on the chlorophyll a and exopolysaccharide contents (P=0.000, P=0.000; P=0.000, P=0.000; one-way ANOVA). Knop nutrient solution did not have a significant positive but rather negative effect on the promotion of moss-dominated crust development (P=0.270, three-factor ANOVA). Moss-dominated crusts treated with the combination of moderate-intensity light (6,000 lx) + high watering frequency (1 watering/2 days) - Knop had the highest moss plant densities, while the treatment with high-intensity light (12,000 lx) + high watering frequency (1 watering/2 days) + Knop nutrient solution had higher chlorophyll a contents than that under other treatments. It is entirely feasible to achieve the rapid development of moss crusts under laboratory conditions by regulating key factors and creating the right environment. Future applications may seek to use cultured bryophytes to control erosion in vulnerable areas with urgent needs. PMID:26230324

Understanding recent climate change.

PubMed

Serreze, Mark C

2010-02-01

The Earth's atmosphere has a natural greenhouse effect, without which the global mean surface temperature would be about 33 degrees C lower and life would not be possible. Human activities have increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and other gases in trace amounts. This has enhanced the greenhouse effect, resulting in surface warming. Were it not for the partly offsetting effects of increased aerosol concentrations, the increase in global mean surface temperature over the past 100 years would be larger than observed. Continued surface warming through the 21st century is inevitable and will likely have widespread ecological impacts. The magnitude and rate of warming for the global average will be largely dictated by the strength and direction of climate feedbacks, thermal inertia of the oceans, the rate of greenhouse gas emissions, and aerosol concentrations. Because of regional expressions of climate feedbacks, changes in atmospheric circulation, and a suite of other factors, the magnitude and rate of warming and changes in other key climate elements, such as precipitation, will not be uniform across the planet. For example, due to loss of its floating sea-ice cover, the Arctic will warm the most.

Locust invasions and climatic factors from the Middle Ages to 1800

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Camuffo, D.; Enzi, S.

1991-03-01

Locust migrations are strictly connected with climatic factors and a historical reconstruction of their invasions in Europe may be useful in dealing with this plague. From records of medieval chroniclers and more recent sources till 1800, some 100 detailed descriptions of locust invasions have been collected and analyzed. Some of them include the meteorological conditions which were associated with the arrival of the swarm of locusts, their path and the presumed country of origin, as well as the local effects such as famine and epidemics, these latter being mostly due to the putrification of the dead locusts. Once in Italy, by comparing different chronicles it is also possible to reconstruct the local march of the bands of hoppers, their extension, the periods in which they more frequently appear, the impact on human settlements, and sometimes the climatic factors (drop of temperature) which caused the swarm to die. The frequent observation of bands with “locusts and crickets” refers to hoppers of different instars, some of them in mature stage and others immature or moulting, born in convenient climatic conditions. By comparing the various chronicles it was also possible to reconstruct the local trajectory of the swarms, their extension, the periods when they were most frequent, their impact on the towns and villages and sometimes the climatic factors (mostly sharp drops in the temperature) responsible for the death of the swarms in northern and central Italy. According to the documentation perused, central-northern Italy was infested via two routes: 1) in most cases the locusts travelled up the Danube basin, then channelled through the Dinaric Alps and the Carpathians thus reaching the Hungarian Plain, and then being transported by the eastern winds to Italy; 2) very occasionally there were local invasions from the north, when the locusts descended through the Brenner Pass after reaching the Danube basin, and then moving along the Inn valley down to the River

Carpathian mountain forest vegetation and its responses to climate stressors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zoran, Maria A.; Savastru, Roxana S.; Savastru, Dan M.; Tautan, Marina N.; Baschir, Laurentiu V.; Dida, Adrian I.

2017-10-01

Due to anthropogenic and climatic changes, Carpathian Mountains forests in Romania experience environmental degradation. As a result of global climate change, there is growing evidence that some of the most severe weather events could become more frequent in Romania over the next 50 to 100 years. In the case of Carpathian mountain forests, winter storms and heat waves are considered key climate risks, particularly in prealpine and alpine areas. Effects of climate extremes on forests can have both short-term and long-term implications for standing biomass, tree health and species composition. The preservation and enhancement of mountain forest vegetation cover in natural, semi-natural forestry ecosystems is an essential factor in sustaining environmental health and averting natural hazards. This paper aims to: (i) describe observed trends and scenarios for summer heat waves, windstorms and heavy precipitation, based on results from satellite time series NOAA AVHRR, MODIS Terra/Aqua and Landsat TM/ETM+/OLI NDVI and LAI data recorded during 2000-2016 period correlated with meteorological parameters, regional climate models, and other downscaling procedures, and (ii) discuss potential impacts of climate changes and extreme events on Carpathian mountain forest system in Romania. The response of forest land cover vegetation in Carpathian Mountains, Romania to climatic factors varies in different seasons of the years, the diverse vegetation feedbacks to climate changes being related to different vegetation characteristics and meteorological conditions. Based on integrated analysis of satellite and field data was concluded that forest ecosystem functions are responsible of the relationships between mountain specific vegetation and climate.

Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The concept of refugia has long been studied from theoretical and paleontological perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, locations that may be unusually buffered from climate change effects so as to increase persistence of valued resources. Here we distinguish between paleoecological and contemporary viewpoints, characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia, summarize the process of identifying and mapping them, and delineate how refugia can fit into the existing framework of natural resource management. We also suggest three primary courses of action at these sites: prioritization, protection, and propagation. Although not a panacea, managing climate change refugia can be an important adaptation option for conserving valuable resources in the face of ongoing and future climate change. “In a nutshell” (100 words) • Climate change refugia are defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change, enabling persistence of valued physical, ecological, and cultural resources. • Refugia can be incorporated as key components of a climate adaptation strategy because their prioritization by management may enable their associated resources to persist locally and eventually spread to future suitable habitat. • Steps for

Forest legacies, climate change, altered disturbance regimes, invasive species and water

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stohlgren, T.; Jarnevich, C.; Kumar, S.

2007-01-01

The factors that must be considered in seeking to predict changes in water availability has been examined. These factors are the following: forest legacies including logging, mining, agriculture, grazing, elimination of large carnivores, human-caused wildfire, and pollution; climate change and stream flow; altered disturbances such as frequency intensity and pattern of wildfires and insect outbreaks as well as flood control; lastly, invasive species like forest pests and pathogens. An integrated approach quantifying the current and past condition trends can be combined with spatial and temporal modeling to develop future change in forest structures and water supply. The key is a combination of geographic information system technologies with climate and land use scenarios, while preventing and minimizing the effects of harmful invasive species.

Interactive effects of multiple climate change factors on ammonia oxidizers and denitrifiers in a temperate steppe.

PubMed

Zhang, Cui-Jing; Shen, Ju-Pei; Sun, Yi-Fei; Wang, Jun-Tao; Zhang, Li-Mei; Yang, Zhong-Ling; Han, Hong-Yan; Wan, Shi-Qiang; He, Ji-Zheng

2017-04-01

Global climate change could have profound effects on belowground microbial communities and subsequently affect soil biogeochemical processes. The interactive effects of multiple co-occurring climate change factors on microbially mediated processes are not well understood. A four-factorial field experiment with elevated CO2, watering, nitrogen (N) addition and night warming was conducted in a temperate steppe of northern China. Real-time polymerase chain reaction and terminal-restriction fragment length polymorphism, combined with clone library techniques, were applied to examine the effects of those climate change factors on N-related microbial abundance and community composition. Only the abundance of ammonia-oxidizing bacteria significantly increased by nitrogen addition and decreased by watering. The interactions of watering × warming on the bacterial amoA community and warming × nitrogen addition on the nosZ community were found. Redundancy analysis indicated that the ammonia-oxidizing archaeal community was affected by total N and total carbon, while the community of bacterial amoA and nosZ were significantly affected by soil pH. According to a structural equation modeling analysis, climate change influenced net primary production indirectly by altering microbial abundance and activities. These results indicated that microbial responses to the combination of chronic global change tend to be smaller than expected from single-factor global change manipulations. © FEMS 2017. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Assessment of the Effect of Climate Change on Grain Yields in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chou, J.

2006-12-01

The paper elaborates the social background and research background; makes clear what the key scientific issues need to be resolved and where the difficulties are. In the research area of parasailing the grain yield change caused by climate change, massive works have been done both in the domestic and in the foreign. It is our upcoming work to evaluate how our countrywide climate change information provided by this pattern influence our economic and social development; and how to make related policies and countermeasures. the main idea in this paper is that the grain yield change is by no means the linear composition of social economy function effect and the climatic change function effect. This paper identifies the economic evaluation object, proposes one new concept - climate change output. The grain yields change affected by the social factors and the climatic change working together. Climate change influences the grain yields by the non ¨C linear function from both climate change and social factor changes, not only by climate change itself. Therefore, in my paper, the appraisal object is defined as: The social factors change based on actual social changing situations; under the two kinds of climate change situation, the invariable climate change situation and variable climate change situation; the difference of grain yield outputs is called " climate change output ", In order to solve this problem, we propose a method to analyze and imitate on the historical materials. Giving the condition that the climate is invariable, the social economic factor changes cause the grain yield change. However, this grain yield change is a tentative quantity index, not an actual quantity number. So we use the existing historical materials to exam the climate change output, based on the characteristic that social factor changes greater in year than in age, but the climate factor changes greater in age than in year. The paper proposes and establishes one economy - climate model (C

Quantitative Analysis of Critical Factors for the Climate Impact of Landfill Mining.

PubMed

Laner, David; Cencic, Oliver; Svensson, Niclas; Krook, Joakim

2016-07-05

Landfill mining has been proposed as an innovative strategy to mitigate environmental risks associated with landfills, to recover secondary raw materials and energy from the deposited waste, and to enable high-valued land uses at the site. The present study quantitatively assesses the importance of specific factors and conditions for the net contribution of landfill mining to global warming using a novel, set-based modeling approach and provides policy recommendations for facilitating the development of projects contributing to global warming mitigation. Building on life-cycle assessment, scenario modeling and sensitivity analysis methods are used to identify critical factors for the climate impact of landfill mining. The net contributions to global warming of the scenarios range from -1550 (saving) to 640 (burden) kg CO2e per Mg of excavated waste. Nearly 90% of the results' total variation can be explained by changes in four factors, namely the landfill gas management in the reference case (i.e., alternative to mining the landfill), the background energy system, the composition of the excavated waste, and the applied waste-to-energy technology. Based on the analyses, circumstances under which landfill mining should be prioritized or not are identified and sensitive parameters for the climate impact assessment of landfill mining are highlighted.

Assessing the contribution of different factors in RegCM4.3 regional climate model projections using the Factor Separation method over the Med-CORDEX domain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zsolt Torma, Csaba; Giorgi, Filippo

2014-05-01

A set of regional climate model (RCM) simulations applying dynamical downscaling of global climate model (GCM) simulations over the Mediterranean domain specified by the international initiative Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) were completed with the Regional Climate Model RegCM, version RegCM4.3. Two GCMs were selected from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble to provide the driving fields for the RegCM: HadGEM2-ES (HadGEM) and MPI-ESM-MR (MPI). The simulations consist of an ensemble including multiple physics configurations and different "Reference Concentration Pathways" (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). In total 15 simulations were carried out with 7 model physics configurations with varying convection and land surface schemes. The horizontal grid spacing of the RCM simulations is 50 km and the simulated period in all cases is 1970-2100 (1970-2099 in case of HadGEM driven simulations). This ensemble includes a combination of experiments in which different model components are changed individually and in combination, and thus lends itself optimally to the application of the Factor Separation (FS) method. This study applies the FS method to investigate the contributions of different factors, along with their synergy, on a set of regional climate model (RCM) projections for the Mediterranean region. The FS method is applied to 6 projections for the period 1970-2100 performed with the regional model RegCM4.3 over the Med-CORDEX domain. Two different sets of factors are intercompared, namely the driving global climate model (HadGEM and MPI) boundary conditions against two model physics settings (convection scheme and irrigation). We find that both the GCM driving conditions and the model physics provide important contributions, depending on the variable analyzed (surface air temperature and precipitation), season (winter vs. summer) and time horizon into the future, while the synergy term mostly tends to counterbalance the

Climate Change

MedlinePlus

... in a place over a period of time. Climate change is major change in temperature, rainfall, snow, or ... by natural factors or by human activities. Today climate changes are occurring at an increasingly rapid rate. Climate ...

Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever and its relationship with climate factors in southeast Iran: a 13-year experience.

PubMed

Ansari, Hossein; Shahbaz, Babak; Izadi, Shahrokh; Zeinali, Mohammad; Tabatabaee, Seyyed Mehdi; Mahmoodi, Mahmood; Holakouie Naieni, Kourosh; Mansournia, Mohammad Ali

2014-06-11

Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is endemic in southeast Iran. In this study we present the epidemiological features of CCHF and its relationship with climate factors in over a 13-year span. Surveillance system data of CCHF from 2000 to 2012 were obtained from the Province Health Centre of Zahedan University of Medical Sciences in southeast Iran. The climate data were obtained from the climate organization. The seasonal auto-regression integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was used for time series analysis to produce a model as applicable as possible in predicting the variations in the occurrence of the disease. Between 2000 and 2012, 647 confirmed CCHF cases were reported from Sistan-va-Baluchistan province. The total case fatality rate was about 10.0%. Climate variables including mean temperature (°C), accumulated rainfall (mm), and maximum relative humidity (%) were significantly correlated with monthly incidence of CCHF (p <0.05). There was no clear pattern of decline in the reported number of cases within the study's time span. The first spike in the number of CCHF cases in Iran occurred after the first surge of the disease in Pakistan. This study shows the potential of climate indicators as predictive factors in modeling the occurrence of CCHF, even though it has to be appreciated whether there is any need for a practically applicable model. There are also other factors, such as entomological indicators and virological finding that must be considered.

Effect of Climate Factors on the Childhood Pneumonia in Papua New Guinea: A Time-Series Analysis.

PubMed

Kim, Jinseob; Kim, Jong-Hun; Cheong, Hae-Kwan; Kim, Ho; Honda, Yasushi; Ha, Mina; Hashizume, Masahiro; Kolam, Joel; Inape, Kasis

2016-02-15

This study aimed to assess the association between climate factors and the incidence of childhood pneumonia in Papua New Guinea quantitatively and to evaluate the variability of the effect size according to their geographic properties. The pneumonia incidence in children under five-year and meteorological factors were obtained from six areas, including monthly rainfall and the monthly average daily maximum temperatures during the period from 1997 to 2006 from national health surveillance data. A generalized linear model was applied to measure the effect size of local and regional climate factor. The pooled risk of pneumonia in children per every 10 mm increase of rainfall was 0.24% (95% confidence interval: -0.01%-0.50%), and risk per every 1 °C increase of the monthly mean of the maximum daily temperatures was 4.88% (95% CI: 1.57-8.30). Southern oscillation index and dipole mode index showed an overall negative effect on childhood pneumonia incidence, -0.57% and -4.30%, respectively, and the risk of pneumonia was higher in the dry season than in the rainy season (pooled effect: 12.08%). There was a variability in the relationship between climate factors and pneumonia which is assumed to reflect distribution of the determinants of and vulnerability to pneumonia in the community.

Agri-Environmental Resource Management by Large-Scale Collective Action: Determining KEY Success Factors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Uetake, Tetsuya

2015-01-01

Purpose: Large-scale collective action is necessary when managing agricultural natural resources such as biodiversity and water quality. This paper determines the key factors to the success of such action. Design/Methodology/Approach: This paper analyses four large-scale collective actions used to manage agri-environmental resources in Canada and…

Assessing organizational implementation context in the education sector: confirmatory factor analysis of measures of implementation leadership, climate, and citizenship.

PubMed

Lyon, Aaron R; Cook, Clayton R; Brown, Eric C; Locke, Jill; Davis, Chayna; Ehrhart, Mark; Aarons, Gregory A

2018-01-08

A substantial literature has established the role of the inner organizational setting on the implementation of evidence-based practices in community contexts, but very little of this research has been extended to the education sector, one of the most common settings for the delivery of mental and behavioral health services to children and adolescents. The current study examined the factor structure, psychometric properties, and interrelations of an adapted set of pragmatic organizational instruments measuring key aspects of the organizational implementation context in schools: (1) strategic implementation leadership, (2) strategic implementation climate, and (3) implementation citizenship behavior. The Implementation Leadership Scale (ILS), Implementation Climate Scale (ICS), and Implementation Citizenship Behavior Scale (ICBS) were adapted by a research team that included the original scale authors and experts in the implementation of evidence-based practices in schools. These instruments were then administered to a geographically representative sample (n = 196) of school-based mental/behavioral health consultants to assess the reliability and structural validity via a series of confirmatory factor analyses. Overall, the original factor structures for the ILS, ICS, and ICBS were confirmed in the current sample. The one exception was poor functioning of the Rewards subscale of the ICS, which was removed in the final ICS model. Correlations among the revised measures, evaluated as part of an overarching model of the organizational implementation context, indicated both unique and shared variance. The current analyses suggest strong applicability of the revised instruments to implementation of evidence-based mental and behavioral practices in the education sector. The one poorly functioning subscale (Rewards on the ICS) was attributed to typical educational policies that do not allow for individual financial incentives to personnel. Potential directions for

Disturbance is the key to plant invasions in cold environments.

PubMed

Lembrechts, Jonas J; Pauchard, Aníbal; Lenoir, Jonathan; Nuñez, Martín A; Geron, Charly; Ven, Arne; Bravo-Monasterio, Pablo; Teneb, Ernesto; Nijs, Ivan; Milbau, Ann

2016-12-06

Until now, nonnative plant species were rarely found at high elevations and latitudes. However, partly because of climate warming, biological invasions are now on the rise in these extremely cold environments. These plant invasions make it timely to undertake a thorough experimental assessment of what has previously been holding them back. This knowledge is key to developing efficient management of the increasing risks of cold-climate invasions. Here, we integrate human interventions (i.e., disturbance, nutrient addition, and propagule input) and climatic factors (i.e., temperature) into one seed-addition experiment across two continents: the subantarctic Andes and subarctic Scandinavian mountains (Scandes), to disentangle their roles in limiting or favoring plant invasions. Disturbance was found as the main determinant of plant invader success (i.e., establishment, growth, and flowering) along the entire cold-climate gradient, explaining 40-60% of the total variance in our models, with no indication of any facilitative effect from the native vegetation. Higher nutrient levels additionally stimulated biomass production and flowering. Establishment and flowering displayed a hump-shaped response with increasing elevation, suggesting that competition is the main limit on invader success at low elevations, as opposed to low-growing-season temperatures at high elevations. Our experiment showed, however, that nonnative plants can establish, grow, and flower well above their current elevational limits in high-latitude mountains. We thus argue that cold-climate ecosystems are likely to see rapid increases in plant invasions in the near future as a result of a synergistic interaction between increasing human-mediated disturbances and climate warming.

KF-finder: identification of key factors from host-microbial networks in cervical cancer.

PubMed

Hu, Jialu; Gao, Yiqun; Zheng, Yan; Shang, Xuequn

2018-04-24

The human body is colonized by a vast number of microbes. Microbiota can benefit many normal life processes, but can also cause many diseases by interfering the regular metabolism and immune system. Recent studies have demonstrated that the microbial community is closely associated with various types of cell carcinoma. The search for key factors, which also refer to cancer causing agents, can provide an important clue in understanding the regulatory mechanism of microbiota in uterine cervix cancer. In this paper, we investigated microbiota composition and gene expression data for 58 squamous and adenosquamous cell carcinoma. A host-microbial covariance network was constructed based on the 16s rRNA and gene expression data of the samples, which consists of 259 abundant microbes and 738 differentially expressed genes (DEGs). To search for risk factors from host-microbial networks, the method of bi-partite betweenness centrality (BpBC) was used to measure the risk of a given node to a certain biological process in hosts. A web-based tool KF-finder was developed, which can efficiently query and visualize the knowledge of microbiota and differentially expressed genes (DEGs) in the network. Our results suggest that prevotellaceade, tissierellaceae and fusobacteriaceae are the most abundant microbes in cervical carcinoma, and the microbial community in cervical cancer is less diverse than that of any other boy sites in health. A set of key risk factors anaerococcus, hydrogenophilaceae, eubacterium, PSMB10, KCNIP1 and KRT13 have been identified, which are thought to be involved in the regulation of viral response, cell cycle and epithelial cell differentiation in cervical cancer. It can be concluded that permanent changes of microbiota composition could be a major force for chromosomal instability, which subsequently enables the effect of key risk factors in cancer. All our results described in this paper can be freely accessed from our website at http://www.nwpu-bioinformatics.com/KF-finder/ .

Solar radiation increases suicide rate after adjusting for other climate factors in South Korea.

PubMed

Jee, Hee-Jung; Cho, Chul-Hyun; Lee, Yu Jin; Choi, Nari; An, Hyonggin; Lee, Heon-Jeong

2017-03-01

Previous studies have indicated that suicide rates have significant seasonal variations. There is seasonal discordance between temperature and solar radiation due to the monsoon season in South Korea. We investigated the seasonality of suicide and assessed its association with climate variables in South Korea. Suicide rates were obtained from the National Statistical Office of South Korea, and climatic data were obtained from the Korea Meteorological Administration for the period of 1992-2010. We conducted analyses using a generalized additive model (GAM). First, we explored the seasonality of suicide and climate variables such as mean temperature, daily temperature range, solar radiation, and relative humidity. Next, we identified confounding climate variables associated with suicide rate. To estimate the adjusted effect of solar radiation on the suicide rate, we investigated the confounding variables using a multivariable GAM. Suicide rate showed seasonality with a pattern similar to that of solar radiation. We found that the suicide rate increased 1.008 times when solar radiation increased by 1 MJ/m 2 after adjusting for other confounding climate factors (P < 0.001). Solar radiation has a significant linear relationship with suicide after adjusting for region, other climate variables, and time trends. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The changing seasonal climate in the Arctic.

PubMed

Bintanja, R; van der Linden, E C

2013-01-01

Ongoing and projected greenhouse warming clearly manifests itself in the Arctic regions, which warm faster than any other part of the world. One of the key features of amplified Arctic warming concerns Arctic winter warming (AWW), which exceeds summer warming by at least a factor of 4. Here we use observation-driven reanalyses and state-of-the-art climate models in a variety of standardised climate change simulations to show that AWW is strongly linked to winter sea ice retreat through the associated release of surplus ocean heat gained in summer through the ice-albedo feedback (~25%), and to infrared radiation feedbacks (~75%). Arctic summer warming is surprisingly modest, even after summer sea ice has completely disappeared. Quantifying the seasonally varying changes in Arctic temperature and sea ice and the associated feedbacks helps to more accurately quantify the likelihood of Arctic's climate changes, and to assess their impact on local ecosystems and socio-economic activities.

The changing seasonal climate in the Arctic

PubMed Central

Bintanja, R.; van der Linden, E. C.

2013-01-01

Ongoing and projected greenhouse warming clearly manifests itself in the Arctic regions, which warm faster than any other part of the world. One of the key features of amplified Arctic warming concerns Arctic winter warming (AWW), which exceeds summer warming by at least a factor of 4. Here we use observation-driven reanalyses and state-of-the-art climate models in a variety of standardised climate change simulations to show that AWW is strongly linked to winter sea ice retreat through the associated release of surplus ocean heat gained in summer through the ice-albedo feedback (~25%), and to infrared radiation feedbacks (~75%). Arctic summer warming is surprisingly modest, even after summer sea ice has completely disappeared. Quantifying the seasonally varying changes in Arctic temperature and sea ice and the associated feedbacks helps to more accurately quantify the likelihood of Arctic's climate changes, and to assess their impact on local ecosystems and socio-economic activities. PMID:23532038

Indicators of climate impacts for forests: recommendations for the US National Climate Assessment indicators system

Treesearch

Linda S. Heath; Sarah M. Anderson; Marla R. Emery; Jeffrey A. Hicke; Jeremy Littell; Alan Lucier; Jeffrey G. Masek; David L. Peterson; Richard Pouyat; Kevin M. Potter; Guy Robertson; Jinelle Sperry; Andrzej Bytnerowicz; Sarah Jovan; Miranda H. Mockrin; Robert Musselman; Bethany K. Schulz; Robert J. Smith; Susan I. Stewart

2015-01-01

The Third National Climate Assessment (NCA) process for the United States focused in part on developing a system of indicators to communicate key aspects of the physical climate, climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and preparedness to inform decisionmakers and the public. Initially, 13 active teams were formed to recommend indicators in a range of categories, including...

Spatially heterogeneous land cover/land use and climatic risk factors of tick-borne feline cytauxzoonosis.

PubMed

Raghavan, Ram K; Almes, Kelli; Goodin, Doug G; Harrington, John A; Stackhouse, Paul W

2014-07-01

Feline cytauxzoonosis is a highly fatal tick-borne disease caused by a hemoparasitic protozoan, Cytauxzoon felis. This disease is a leading cause of mortality for cats in the Midwestern United States, and no vaccine or effective treatment options exist. Prevention based on knowledge of risk factors is therefore vital. Associations of different environmental factors, including recent climate were evaluated as potential risk factors for cytauxzoonosis using Geographic Information Systems (GIS). There were 69 cases determined to be positive for cytauxzoonosis based upon positive identification of C. felis within blood film examinations, tissue impression smears, or histopathologic examination of tissues. Negative controls totaling 123 were selected from feline cases that had a history of fever, malaise, icterus, and anorexia but lack of C. felis within blood films, impression smears, or histopathologic examination of tissues. Additional criteria to rule out C. felis among controls were the presence of regenerative anemia, cytologic examination of blood marrow or lymph node aspirate, other causative agent diagnosed, or survival of 25 days or greater after testing. Potential environmental determinants were derived from publicly available sources, viz., US Department of Agriculture (soil attributes), US Geological Survey (land-cover/landscape, landscape metrics), and NASA (climate). Candidate variables were screened using univariate logistic models with a liberal p value (0.2), and associations with cytauxzoonosis were modeled using a global multivariate logistic model (p<0.05). Spatial heterogeneity among significant variables in the study region was modeled using a geographically weighted regression (GWR) approach. Total Edge Contrast Index (TECI), grassland-coverage, humidity conditions recorded during the 9(th) week prior to case arrival, and an interaction variable, "diurnal temperature range × percent mixed forest area" were significant risk factors for

On the data-driven inference of modulatory networks in climate science: an application to West African rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González, D. L., II; Angus, M. P.; Tetteh, I. K.; Bello, G. A.; Padmanabhan, K.; Pendse, S. V.; Srinivas, S.; Yu, J.; Semazzi, F.; Kumar, V.; Samatova, N. F.

2014-04-01

Decades of hypothesis-driven and/or first-principles research have been applied towards the discovery and explanation of the mechanisms that drive climate phenomena, such as western African Sahel summer rainfall variability. Although connections between various climate factors have been theorized, not all of the key relationships are fully understood. We propose a data-driven approach to identify candidate players in this climate system, which can help explain underlying mechanisms and/or even suggest new relationships, to facilitate building a more comprehensive and predictive model of the modulatory relationships influencing a climate phenomenon of interest. We applied coupled heterogeneous association rule mining (CHARM), Lasso multivariate regression, and Dynamic Bayesian networks to find relationships within a complex system, and explored means with which to obtain a consensus result from the application of such varied methodologies. Using this fusion of approaches, we identified relationships among climate factors that modulate Sahel rainfall, including well-known associations from prior climate knowledge, as well as promising discoveries that invite further research by the climate science community.

Theoretical Assessment of the Impact of Climatic Factors in a Vibrio Cholerae Model.

PubMed

Kolaye, G; Damakoa, I; Bowong, S; Houe, R; Békollè, D

2018-05-04

A mathematical model for Vibrio Cholerae (V. Cholerae) in a closed environment is considered, with the aim of investigating the impact of climatic factors which exerts a direct influence on the bacterial metabolism and on the bacterial reservoir capacity. We first propose a V. Cholerae mathematical model in a closed environment. A sensitivity analysis using the eFast method was performed to show the most important parameters of the model. After, we extend this V. cholerae model by taking account climatic factors that influence the bacterial reservoir capacity. We present the theoretical analysis of the model. More precisely, we compute equilibria and study their stabilities. The stability of equilibria was investigated using the theory of periodic cooperative systems with a concave nonlinearity. Theoretical results are supported by numerical simulations which further suggest the necessity to implement sanitation campaigns of aquatic environments by using suitable products against the bacteria during the periods of growth of aquatic reservoirs.

[Correlation analysis on normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) of different vegetations and climatic factors in Southwest China].

PubMed

Zhang, Yuan-Dong; Zhang, Xiao-He; Liu, Shi-Rong

2011-02-01

Based on the 1982-2006 NDVI remote sensing data and meteorological data of Southwest China, and by using GIS technology, this paper interpolated and extracted the mean annual temperature, annual precipitation, and drought index in the region, and analyzed the correlations of the annual variation of NDVI in different vegetation types (marsh, shrub, bush, grassland, meadow, coniferous forest, broad-leaved forest, alpine vegetation, and cultural vegetation) with corresponding climatic factors. In 1982-2006, the NDVI, mean annual temperature, and annual precipitation had an overall increasing trend, and the drought index decreased. Particularly, the upward trend of mean annual temperature was statistically significant. Among the nine vegetation types, the NDVI of bush and mash decreased, and the downward trend was significant for bush. The NDVI of the other seven vegetation types increased, and the upward trend was significant for coniferous forest, meadow, and alpine vegetation, and extremely significant for shrub. The mean annual temperature in the areas with all the nine vegetation types increased significantly, while the annual precipitation had no significant change. The drought index in the areas with marsh, bush, and cultural vegetation presented an increasing trend, that in the areas with meadow and alpine vegetation decreased significantly, and this index in the areas with other four vegetation types had an unobvious decreasing trend. The NDVI of shrub and coniferous forest had a significantly positive correlation with mean annual temperature, and that of shrub and meadow had significantly negative correlation with drought index. Under the conditions of the other two climatic factors unchanged, the NDVI of coniferous forest, broad-leaved forest, and alpine vegetation showed the strongest correlation with mean annual temperature, that of grass showed the strongest correlation with annual precipitation, and the NDVI of mash, shrub, grass, meadow, and cultural

Key factors of successful JIT integration with IBS - An overview

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asri, Mohammad Azwanie Naim Mohammad; Nawi, Mohd Nasrun Mohd; Nadarajan, Santhirasegaran

2016-08-01

The Just-In-Time (JIT) philosophy has been used for many decades to increase productivity through waste elimination process. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the knowledge by addressing the transportation and material delivery activities in Industrialized Building System (IBS) and integrating JIT to improve the performance of those activities. The literature review has been conducted through relevant database. It was found that there is a need for more holistic approach to be adopted to integrate JIT in IBS project. This paper discusses the key success factors for effective integration between JIT and IBS in the context of transportation and material delivery activities.

Climate, critters, and cetaceans: Cenozoic drivers of the evolution of modern whales.

PubMed

Marx, Felix G; Uhen, Mark D

2010-02-19

Modern cetaceans, a poster child of evolution, play an important role in the ocean ecosystem as apex predators and nutrient distributors, as well as evolutionary "stepping stones" for the deep sea biota. Recent discussions on the impact of climate change and marine exploitation on current cetacean populations may benefit from insights into what factors have influenced cetacean diversity in the past. Previous studies suggested that the rise of diatoms as dominant marine primary producers and global temperature change were key factors in the evolution of modern whales. Based on a comprehensive diversity data set, we show that much of observed cetacean paleodiversity can indeed be explained by diatom diversity in conjunction with variations in climate as indicated by oxygen stable isotope records (delta18O).

Racial Privilege in the Professoriate: An Exploration of Campus Climate, Retention, and Satisfaction

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jayakumar, Uma M.; Howard, Tyrone C.; Allen, Walter R.; Han, June C.

2009-01-01

This study applies the principles of critical race theory to examine quantitatively the experiences of a national sample of 37,582 faculty. Among the key factors influencing retention and satisfaction are campus racial climate, autonomy and independence, and the review and promotion process. Results support the value of examining faculty of color…

The Co-evolution of Climate Models and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Somerville, R. C.

2010-12-01

been endorsed by many leading scientific professional societies and academies of science worldwide. These reports are considered as definitive summaries of the state of the science. In 2007, in recognition of its exceptional accomplishments, the IPCC shared the Nobel Peace Prize equally with Al Gore. The present era is characterized not only by the reality and seriousness of human-caused climate change, but also by a young yet powerful science that enables us to understand much about the climate change that has occurred already and that awaits in the future. The development of GCMs is a critical part of the scientific story, and the development of the IPCC is a key factor in connecting the science to the perceptions and priorities of the global public and policymakers. GCMs and the IPCC have co-evolved and strongly influenced one another, as both scientists and the world at large have worked to confront the challenge of climate change.

Non-climatic constraints on upper elevational plant range expansion under climate change

PubMed Central

Brown, Carissa D.; Vellend, Mark

2014-01-01

We are limited in our ability to predict climate-change-induced range shifts by our inadequate understanding of how non-climatic factors contribute to determining range limits along putatively climatic gradients. Here, we present a unique combination of observations and experiments demonstrating that seed predation and soil properties strongly limit regeneration beyond the upper elevational range limit of sugar maple, a tree species of major economic importance. Most strikingly, regeneration beyond the range limit occurred almost exclusively when seeds were experimentally protected from predators. Regeneration from seed was depressed on soil from beyond the range edge when this soil was transplanted to sites within the range, with indirect evidence suggesting that fungal pathogens play a role. Non-climatic factors are clearly in need of careful attention when attempting to predict the biotic consequences of climate change. At minimum, we can expect non-climatic factors to create substantial time lags between the creation of more favourable climatic conditions and range expansion. PMID:25253462

School Climate Factors in Selected Full-Service and Traditional Elementary Schools in a Southeastern City: Contrasts and Comparisons

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cornwill, William L.; Parks, Alicia L.

2007-01-01

This exploratory comparison of traditional and full-service schools' climates is an initial step in determining their differences. The authors established whether selected full-service and traditional elementary schools differ on five school climate factors indicating the student and teacher body composition, the students' socioeconomic status,…

Evaluating the Effects of Climate Change on Summertime Ozone using a Relative Response Factor approach for Policy Makers

EPA Science Inventory

The impact of climate change on surface level ozone is examined through a multi-scale modeling effort that linked global and regional climate models to drive air quality model simulations. Results are quantified in terms of the Relative Response Factor (RRF_E), which es...

Key factors influencing allied health research capacity in a large Australian metropolitan health district

PubMed Central

Alison, Jennifer A; Zafiropoulos, Bill; Heard, Robert

2017-01-01

Objective The aim of this study was to identify key factors affecting research capacity and engagement of allied health professionals working in a large metropolitan health service. Identifying such factors will assist in determining strategies for building research capacity in allied health. Materials and methods A total of 276 allied health professionals working within the Sydney Local Health District (SLHD) completed the Research Capacity in Context Tool (RCCT) that measures research capacity and culture across three domains: organization, team, and individual. An exploratory factor analysis was undertaken to identify common themes within each of these domains. Correlations were performed between demographic variables and the identified factors to determine possible relationships. Results Research capacity and culture success/skill levels were reported to be higher within the organization and team domains compared to the individual domain (median [interquartile range, IQR] 6 [5–8], 6 [5–8], 5 [3–7], respectively; Friedman χ2(2)=42.04, p<0.001). Exploratory factor analyses were performed to identify factors that were perceived by allied health respondents to affect research capacity. Factors identified within the organization domain were infrastructure for research (eg, funds and equipment) and research culture (eg, senior manager’s support for research); within the team domain the factors were research orientation (eg, dissemination of results at research seminars) and research support (eg, providing staff research training). Within the individual domain, only one factor was identified which was the research skill of the individual (eg, literature evaluation, submitting ethics applications and data analysis, and writing for publication). Conclusion The reported skill/success levels in research were lower for the individual domain compared to the organization or team domains. Key factors were identified in each domain that impacted on allied health

Effect of Climate Factors on the Childhood Pneumonia in Papua New Guinea: A Time-Series Analysis

PubMed Central

Kim, Jinseob; Kim, Jong-Hun; Cheong, Hae-Kwan; Kim, Ho; Honda, Yasushi; Ha, Mina; Hashizume, Masahiro; Kolam, Joel; Inape, Kasis

2016-01-01

This study aimed to assess the association between climate factors and the incidence of childhood pneumonia in Papua New Guinea quantitatively and to evaluate the variability of the effect size according to their geographic properties. The pneumonia incidence in children under five-year and meteorological factors were obtained from six areas, including monthly rainfall and the monthly average daily maximum temperatures during the period from 1997 to 2006 from national health surveillance data. A generalized linear model was applied to measure the effect size of local and regional climate factor. The pooled risk of pneumonia in children per every 10 mm increase of rainfall was 0.24% (95% confidence interval: −0.01%–0.50%), and risk per every 1 °C increase of the monthly mean of the maximum daily temperatures was 4.88% (95% CI: 1.57–8.30). Southern oscillation index and dipole mode index showed an overall negative effect on childhood pneumonia incidence, −0.57% and −4.30%, respectively, and the risk of pneumonia was higher in the dry season than in the rainy season (pooled effect: 12.08%). There was a variability in the relationship between climate factors and pneumonia which is assumed to reflect distribution of the determinants of and vulnerability to pneumonia in the community. PMID:26891307

Determining climate effects on US total agricultural productivity.

PubMed

Liang, Xin-Zhong; Wu, You; Chambers, Robert G; Schmoldt, Daniel L; Gao, Wei; Liu, Chaoshun; Liu, Yan-An; Sun, Chao; Kennedy, Jennifer A

2017-03-21

The sensitivity of agricultural productivity to climate has not been sufficiently quantified. The total factor productivity (TFP) of the US agricultural economy has grown continuously for over half a century, with most of the growth typically attributed to technical change. Many studies have examined the effects of local climate on partial productivity measures such as crop yields and economic returns, but these measures cannot account for national-level impacts. Quantifying the relationships between TFP and climate is critical to understanding whether current US agricultural productivity growth will continue into the future. We analyze correlations between regional climate variations and national TFP changes, identify key climate indices, and build a multivariate regression model predicting the growth of agricultural TFP based on a physical understanding of its historical relationship with climate. We show that temperature and precipitation in distinct agricultural regions and seasons explain ∼70% of variations in TFP growth during 1981-2010. To date, the aggregate effects of these regional climate trends on TFP have been outweighed by improvements in technology. Should these relationships continue, however, the projected climate changes could cause TFP to drop by an average 2.84 to 4.34% per year under medium to high emissions scenarios. As a result, TFP could fall to pre-1980 levels by 2050 even when accounting for present rates of innovation. Our analysis provides an empirical foundation for integrated assessment by linking regional climate effects to national economic outcomes, offering a more objective resource for policy making.

Determining climate effects on US total agricultural productivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Xin-Zhong; Wu, You; Chambers, Robert G.; Schmoldt, Daniel L.; Gao, Wei; Liu, Chaoshun; Liu, Yan-An; Sun, Chao; Kennedy, Jennifer A.

2017-03-01

The sensitivity of agricultural productivity to climate has not been sufficiently quantified. The total factor productivity (TFP) of the US agricultural economy has grown continuously for over half a century, with most of the growth typically attributed to technical change. Many studies have examined the effects of local climate on partial productivity measures such as crop yields and economic returns, but these measures cannot account for national-level impacts. Quantifying the relationships between TFP and climate is critical to understanding whether current US agricultural productivity growth will continue into the future. We analyze correlations between regional climate variations and national TFP changes, identify key climate indices, and build a multivariate regression model predicting the growth of agricultural TFP based on a physical understanding of its historical relationship with climate. We show that temperature and precipitation in distinct agricultural regions and seasons explain ˜70% of variations in TFP growth during 1981-2010. To date, the aggregate effects of these regional climate trends on TFP have been outweighed by improvements in technology. Should these relationships continue, however, the projected climate changes could cause TFP to drop by an average 2.84 to 4.34% per year under medium to high emissions scenarios. As a result, TFP could fall to pre-1980 levels by 2050 even when accounting for present rates of innovation. Our analysis provides an empirical foundation for integrated assessment by linking regional climate effects to national economic outcomes, offering a more objective resource for policy making.

Connecting today's climates to future climate analogs to facilitate movement of species under climate change.

PubMed

Littlefield, Caitlin E; McRae, Brad H; Michalak, Julia L; Lawler, Joshua J; Carroll, Carlos

2017-12-01

Increasing connectivity is an important strategy for facilitating species range shifts and maintaining biodiversity in the face of climate change. To date, however, few researchers have included future climate projections in efforts to prioritize areas for increasing connectivity. We identified key areas likely to facilitate climate-induced species' movement across western North America. Using historical climate data sets and future climate projections, we mapped potential species' movement routes that link current climate conditions to analogous climate conditions in the future (i.e., future climate analogs) with a novel moving-window analysis based on electrical circuit theory. In addition to tracing shifting climates, the approach accounted for landscape permeability and empirically derived species' dispersal capabilities. We compared connectivity maps generated with our climate-change-informed approach with maps of connectivity based solely on the degree of human modification of the landscape. Including future climate projections in connectivity models substantially shifted and constrained priority areas for movement to a smaller proportion of the landscape than when climate projections were not considered. Potential movement, measured as current flow, decreased in all ecoregions when climate projections were included, particularly when dispersal was limited, which made climate analogs inaccessible. Many areas emerged as important for connectivity only when climate change was modeled in 2 time steps rather than in a single time step. Our results illustrate that movement routes needed to track changing climatic conditions may differ from those that connect present-day landscapes. Incorporating future climate projections into connectivity modeling is an important step toward facilitating successful species movement and population persistence in a changing climate. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

Climate Change Indicators in the United States, 2016 ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA partners with over 40 data contributors from various government agencies, academic institutions, and other organizations to compile and communicate key indicators related to the causes and effects of climate change, the significance of these changes, and their possible consequences for people, the environment, and society. This is the fourth edition of the Climate Change Indicators in the United States report. To summarize and communicate key indicators related to the causes and effects of climate change.

A Systematic Exploration of the Local and Remote Climate Effects of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions from Key Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voulgarakis, A.; Kasoar, M.; Shawki, D.; Lamarque, J. F.; Shindell, D. T.; Faluvegi, G.; Bellouin, N.; Collins, W.; Tsigaridis, K.

2016-12-01

The radiative forcing of short-lived pollutants such as aerosols and tropospheric ozone is highly inhomogeneous and can therefore affect regional temperature, circulation and precipitation in a much more complicated way than the forcing of well-mixed greenhouse gases. Such effects have only recently started to be examined thoroughly and systematically from a global point of view, to understand regional interactions. Here, after outlining some key past work in this area, results from recent simulations with the UK Met Office's HadGEM3 global composition-climate model will be presented in which anthropogenic emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO2) and black carbon in key regions (East Asia, South Asia, Europe, the US, and the northern mid-latitudes as a whole) have been removed. The linkages between emissions, concentrations, radiative forcing, temperature and precipitation responses will be discussed. A particular emphasis will be placed on non-local effects, i.e. how emissions over a certain region can affect other areas remotely. Finally, we will contrast our results with those from similar experiments pursued using the NASA GISS-E2 and the NCAR CESM1 models for US and East Asian SO2 emissions, and will discuss the large differences in the models' behaviour.

Work-related injury factors and safety climate perception in truck drivers.

PubMed

Anderson, Naomi J; Smith, Caroline K; Byrd, Jesse L

2017-08-01

The trucking industry has a high burden of work-related injuries. This study examined factors, such as safety climate perceptions, that may impact injury risk. A random sample of 9800 commercial driver's license holders (CDL) were sent surveys, only 4360 were eligible truck drivers. Descriptive statistics and logistic regression models were developed to describe the population and identify variables associated with work-related injury. 2189 drivers completed the pertinent interview questions. Driving less-than-truckload, daytime sleepiness, pressure to work faster, and having a poor composite score for safety perceptions were all associated with increased likelihood of work-related injury. Positive safety perception score was protective for odds of work-related injury, and increased claim filing when injured. Positive psychological safety climate is associated with decreased likelihood of work-related injury and increased likelihood that a driver injured on the job files a workers' compensation claim. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A broad assessment of factors determining Culicoides imicola abundance: modelling the present and forecasting its future in climate change scenarios.

PubMed

Acevedo, Pelayo; Ruiz-Fons, Francisco; Estrada, Rosa; Márquez, Ana Luz; Miranda, Miguel Angel; Gortázar, Christian; Lucientes, Javier

2010-12-06

Bluetongue (BT) is still present in Europe and the introduction of new serotypes from endemic areas in the African continent is a possible threat. Culicoides imicola remains one of the most relevant BT vectors in Spain and research on the environmental determinants driving its life cycle is key to preventing and controlling BT. Our aim was to improve our understanding of the biotic and abiotic determinants of C. imicola by modelling its present abundance, studying the spatial pattern of predicted abundance in relation to BT outbreaks, and investigating how the predicted current distribution and abundance patterns might change under future (2011-2040) scenarios of climate change according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. C. imicola abundance data from the bluetongue national surveillance programme were modelled with spatial, topoclimatic, host and soil factors. The influence of these factors was further assessed by variation partitioning procedures. The predicted abundance of C. imicola was also projected to a future period. Variation partitioning demonstrated that the pure effect of host and topoclimate factors explained a high percentage (>80%) of the variation. The pure effect of soil followed in importance in explaining the abundance of C. imicola. A close link was confirmed between C. imicola abundance and BT outbreaks. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to consider wild and domestic hosts in predictive modelling for an arthropod vector. The main findings regarding the near future show that there is no evidence to suggest that there will be an important increase in the distribution range of C. imicola; this contrasts with an expected increase in abundance in the areas where it is already present in mainland Spain. What may be expected regarding the future scenario for orbiviruses in mainland Spain, is that higher predicted C. imicola abundance may significantly change the rate of transmission of orbiviruses.

SEEPLUS: A SIMPLE ONLINE CLIMATE MODEL

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsutsui, Junichi

A web application for a simple climate model - SEEPLUS (a Simple climate model to Examine Emission Pathways Leading to Updated Scenarios) - has been developed. SEEPLUS consists of carbon-cycle and climate-change modules, through which it provides the information infrastructure required to perform climate-change experiments, even on a millennial-timescale. The main objective of this application is to share the latest scientific knowledge acquired from climate modeling studies among the different stakeholders involved in climate-change issues. Both the carbon-cycle and climate-change modules employ impulse response functions (IRFs) for their key processes, thereby enabling the model to integrate the outcome from an ensemble of complex climate models. The current IRF parameters and forcing manipulation are basically consistent with, or within an uncertainty range of, the understanding of certain key aspects such as the equivalent climate sensitivity and ocean CO2 uptake data documented in representative literature. The carbon-cycle module enables inverse calculation to determine the emission pathway required in order to attain a given concentration pathway, thereby providing a flexible way to compare the module with more advanced modeling studies. The module also enables analytical evaluation of its equilibrium states, thereby facilitating the long-term planning of global warming mitigation.

Partition of some key regulating services in terrestrial ecosystems: Meta-analysis and review.

PubMed

Viglizzo, E F; Jobbágy, E G; Ricard, M F; Paruelo, J M

2016-08-15

Our knowledge about the functional foundations of ecosystem service (ES) provision is still limited and more research is needed to elucidate key functional mechanisms. Using a simplified eco-hydrological scheme, in this work we analyzed how land-use decisions modify the partition of some essential regulatory ES by altering basic relationships between biomass stocks and water flows. A comprehensive meta-analysis and review was conducted based on global, regional and local data from peer-reviewed publications. We analyzed five datasets comprising 1348 studies and 3948 records on precipitation (PPT), aboveground biomass (AGB), AGB change, evapotranspiration (ET), water yield (WY), WY change, runoff (R) and infiltration (I). The conceptual framework was focused on ES that are associated with the ecological functions (e.g., intermediate ES) of ET, WY, R and I. ES included soil protection, carbon sequestration, local climate regulation, water-flow regulation and water recharge. To address the problem of data normality, the analysis included both parametric and non-parametric regression analysis. Results demonstrate that PPT is a first-order biophysical factor that controls ES release at the broader scales. At decreasing scales, ES are partitioned as result of PPT interactions with other biophysical and anthropogenic factors. At intermediate scales, land-use change interacts with PPT modifying ES partition as it the case of afforestation in dry regions, where ET and climate regulation may be enhanced at the expense of R and water-flow regulation. At smaller scales, site-specific conditions such as topography interact with PPT and AGB displaying different ES partition formats. The probable implications of future land-use and climate change on some key ES production and partition are discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Urban climate, weather and sustainability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mills, Gerald

As concentrated areas of human activities, urban areas and urbanization are key drivers of global environmental change and pose a challenge to the achievement of sustainability. One of the key goals of sustainable development is to separate increases in non-renewable resource use (particularly fossil fuels) from economic growth. This is to be accomplished by modifying individual practices, encouraging technological innovation and redesigning systems of production and consumption. Settlements represent a scale at which significant advances on each of these can be made and where there is an existing management structure. However, urban areas currently consume a disproportionate share of the Earth's resources and urbanization has modified local climate and weather significantly, usually to the detriment of urban dwellers. There is now a lengthy history of urban climate study that links existing settlement form to climatic consequences yet, there is little evidence that climate information is incorporated into urban designs or that the climatic impact of different plans is considered. Consequently, opportunities for planning sustainable urban forms that are suitable to local climates and promote energy conservation and healthy atmospheres are not taken and much effort is later expended in `fixing' problems that emerge. This paper will outline the links between urban climate and sustainability, identify gaps in our urban climate knowledge and discuss the opportunities and barriers to the application of this knowledge to urban design and planning.

Identifying key climate and environmental factors affecting rates of post-fire big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) recovery in the northern Columbia Basin, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shinneman, Douglas; McIlroy, Susan

2016-01-01

Sagebrush steppe of North America is considered highly imperilled, in part owing to increased fire frequency. Sagebrush ecosystems support numerous species, and it is important to understand those factors that affect rates of post-fire sagebrush recovery. We explored recovery of Wyoming big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata ssp.wyomingensis) and basin big sagebrush (A. tridentata ssp. tridentata) communities following fire in the northern Columbia Basin (Washington, USA). We sampled plots across 16 fires that burned in big sagebrush communities from 5 to 28 years ago, and also sampled nearby unburned locations. Mixed-effects models demonstrated that density of large–mature big sagebrush plants and percentage cover of big sagebrush were higher with time since fire and in plots with more precipitation during the winter immediately following fire, but were lower when precipitation the next winter was higher than average, especially on soils with higher available water supply, and with greater post-fire mortality of mature big sagebrush plants. Bunchgrass cover 5 to 28 years after fire was predicted to be lower with higher cover of both shrubs and non-native herbaceous species, and only slightly higher with time. Post-fire recovery of big sagebrush in the northern Columbia Basin is a slow process that may require several decades on average, but faster recovery rates may occur under specific site and climate conditions.

Natural climate variability and teleconnections to precipitation over the Pacific-North American region in CMIP3 and CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polade, Suraj D.; Gershunov, Alexander; Cayan, Daniel R.; Dettinger, Michael D.; Pierce, David W.

2013-05-01

climate variability will continue to be an important aspect of future regional climate even in the midst of long-term secular changes. Consequently, the ability of climate models to simulate major natural modes of variability and their teleconnections provides important context for the interpretation and use of climate change projections. Comparisons reported here indicate that the CMIP5 generation of global climate models shows significant improvements in simulations of key Pacific climate mode and their teleconnections to North America compared to earlier CMIP3 simulations. The performance of 14 models with simulations in both the CMIP3 and CMIP5 archives are assessed using singular value decomposition analysis of simulated and observed winter Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and concurrent precipitation over the contiguous United States and northwestern Mexico. Most of the models reproduce basic features of the key natural mode and their teleconnections, albeit with notable regional deviations from observations in both SST and precipitation. Increasing horizontal resolution in the CMIP5 simulations is an important, but not a necessary, factor in the improvement from CMIP3 to CMIP5.

Natural climate variability and teleconnections to precipitation over the Pacific-North American region in CMIP3 and CMIP5 models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Polade, Suraj D.; Gershunov, Alexander; Cayan, Daniel R.; Dettinger, Michael D.; Pierce, David W.

2013-01-01

Natural climate variability will continue to be an important aspect of future regional climate even in the midst of long-term secular changes. Consequently, the ability of climate models to simulate major natural modes of variability and their teleconnections provides important context for the interpretation and use of climate change projections. Comparisons reported here indicate that the CMIP5 generation of global climate models shows significant improvements in simulations of key Pacific climate mode and their teleconnections to North America compared to earlier CMIP3 simulations. The performance of 14 models with simulations in both the CMIP3 and CMIP5 archives are assessed using singular value decomposition analysis of simulated and observed winter Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and concurrent precipitation over the contiguous United States and northwestern Mexico. Most of the models reproduce basic features of the key natural mode and their teleconnections, albeit with notable regional deviations from observations in both SST and precipitation. Increasing horizontal resolution in the CMIP5 simulations is an important, but not a necessary, factor in the improvement from CMIP3 to CMIP5.

Perception of Transfer Climate Factors in the Macro and Micro Organizational Work Environment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Diggs, Byron Kenneth

2011-01-01

This qualitative study was designed to provide insight on the perceived transfer climate factors in the macro and micro organizational work environment that may influence an employee's willingness to transfer what was learned in a training program to the job. More specifically, the purpose of the study was to delineate descriptive patterns and…

IPCC Climate Change 2013: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Key findings and lessons learned

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giorgi, Filippo; Field, Christopher; Barros, Vicente

2014-05-01

The Working Group II contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergivernmental Panel on Climate Change, Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, will be completed and approved in March 2014. It includes two parts, Part A covering Global and Sectoral Aspects, and Part B, covering Regional Aspects. The WGII report spans a very broad range of topics which are approached in a strong interdisciplinary context. It highlights how observed impacts of climate change are now widespread and consequential, particularly for natural systems, and can be observed on all continents and across the oceans. Vulnerability to climate change depends on interactions with non-climatic stressors and inequalities, resulting in highly differential risks associated with climate change. It is also found that adaptation is already occurring across scales and is embedded in many planning processes. Continued sustained warming thrughout the 21st century will exacerbate risks and vulnerabilities across multiple sectors, such as freshwater resources, terrestrial and inland water systems, coastal and marine systems, food production, human health, security and livelihood. The report stresses how risks and vulnerabilities need to be assessed within a multi-stressor and regionally specific context, and can be reduced and managed by adopting climate-resilient pathwyas combining suitable adaptation and mitigation options with synergies and tradeoffs occurring both within and across regions. The Working group II report includes a large number of Chapters (30) and contributors (310 including authors and review editors), with expertise in a broad range of disciplines, from the physical science to the impact and socio-economic sciences. The communication across chapters and disciplines has been a challenge, and will continue to be one as the Global Change problem will increasingly require a fully integrated and holistic approach. Note that text on this abstract is not approved at the time its

Heat tolerance around flowering in wheat identified as a key trait for increased yield potential in Europe under climate change

PubMed Central

Stratonovitch, Pierre; Semenov, Mikhail A.

2015-01-01

To deliver food security for the 9 billon population in 2050, a 70% increase in world food supply will be required. Projected climatic and environmental changes emphasize the need for breeding strategies that delivers both a substantial increase in yield potential and resilience to extreme weather events such as heat waves, late frost, and drought. Heat stress around sensitive stages of wheat development has been identified as a possible threat to wheat production in Europe. However, no estimates have been made to assess yield losses due to increased frequency and magnitude of heat stress under climate change. Using existing experimental data, the Sirius wheat model was refined by incorporating the effects of extreme temperature during flowering and grain filling on accelerated leaf senescence, grain number, and grain weight. This allowed us, for the first time, to quantify yield losses resulting from heat stress under climate change. The model was used to optimize wheat ideotypes for CMIP5-based climate scenarios for 2050 at six sites in Europe with diverse climates. The yield potential for heat-tolerant ideotypes can be substantially increased in the future (e.g. by 80% at Seville, 100% at Debrecen) compared with the current cultivars by selecting an optimal combination of wheat traits, e.g. optimal phenology and extended duration of grain filling. However, at two sites, Seville and Debrecen, the grain yields of heat-sensitive ideotypes were substantially lower (by 54% and 16%) and more variable compared with heat-tolerant ideotypes, because the extended grain filling required for the increased yield potential was in conflict with episodes of high temperature during flowering and grain filling. Despite much earlier flowering at these sites, the risk of heat stress affecting yields of heat-sensitive ideotypes remained high. Therefore, heat tolerance in wheat is likely to become a key trait for increased yield potential and yield stability in southern Europe in the

How do climatic and management factors affect agricultural ecosystem services? A case study in the agro-pastoral transitional zone of northern China.

PubMed

Qiao, Jianmin; Yu, Deyong; Wu, Jianguo

2018-02-01

Agricultural ecosystem management needs to ensure food production and minimize soil erosion and nitrogen (N) leaching under climate change and increasingly intensive human activity. Thus, the mechanisms through which climatic and management factors affect crop production, soil erosion, and N leaching must be understood in order to ensure food security and sustainable agricultural development. In this study, we adopted the GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model to simulate crop production, soil erosion, and N leaching, and used a partial least squares regression model to evaluate the contributions of climate variables (solar radiation, precipitation, wind speed, relative humidity, and maximum and minimum temperature) and management factors (irrigation, fertilization, and crop cultivation area) on agricultural ecosystem services (AES) in the agro-pastoral transitional zone (APTZ) of northern China. The results indicated that crop production and N leaching markedly increased, whereas soil erosion declined from 1980 to 2010 in the APTZ. Management factors had larger effects on the AES than climate change. Among the climatic variables, daily minimum temperature was the most important contributor to the variations in ecosystem services of wheat, maize, and rice. Spatial changes in the cultivated area most affected crop production, soil erosion, and N leaching for majority of the cultivated areas of the three crops, except for the wheat-cultivated area, where the dominant factor for N leaching was fertilization. Although a tradeoff existed between crop production and negative environmental effects, compromises were possible. These findings provide new insights into the effects of climatic and management factors on AES, and have practical implications for improving crop production while minimizing negative environmental impacts. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Key factors of case management interventions for frequent users of healthcare services: a thematic analysis review.

PubMed

Hudon, Catherine; Chouinard, Maud-Christine; Lambert, Mireille; Diadiou, Fatoumata; Bouliane, Danielle; Beaudin, Jérémie

2017-10-22

The aim of this paper was to identify the key factors of case management (CM) interventions among frequent users of healthcare services found in empirical studies of effectiveness. Thematic analysis review of CM studies. We built on a previously published review that aimed to report the effectiveness of CM interventions for frequent users of healthcare services, using the Medline, Scopus and CINAHL databases covering the January 2004-December 2015 period, then updated to July 2017, with the keywords 'CM' and 'frequent use'. We extracted factors of successful (n=7) and unsuccessful (n=6) CM interventions and conducted a mixed thematic analysis to synthesise findings. Chaudoir's implementation of health innovations framework was used to organise results into four broad levels of factors: (1) ,environmental/organisational level, (2) practitioner level, (3) patient level and (4) programme level. Access to, and close partnerships with, healthcare providers and community services resources were key factors of successful CM interventions that should target patients with the greatest needs and promote frequent contacts with the healthcare team. The selection and training of the case manager was also an important factor to foster patient engagement in CM. Coordination of care, self-management support and assistance with care navigation were key CM activities. The main issues reported by unsuccessful CM interventions were problems with case finding or lack of care integration. CM interventions for frequent users of healthcare services should ensure adequate case finding processes, rigorous selection and training of the case manager, sufficient intensity of the intervention, as well as good care integration among all partners. Other studies could further evaluate the influence of contextual factors on intervention impacts. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted

Key factors of case management interventions for frequent users of healthcare services: a thematic analysis review

PubMed Central

Hudon, Catherine; Chouinard, Maud-Christine; Lambert, Mireille; Diadiou, Fatoumata; Bouliane, Danielle; Beaudin, Jérémie

2017-01-01

Objective The aim of this paper was to identify the key factors of case management (CM) interventions among frequent users of healthcare services found in empirical studies of effectiveness. Design Thematic analysis review of CM studies. Methods We built on a previously published review that aimed to report the effectiveness of CM interventions for frequent users of healthcare services, using the Medline, Scopus and CINAHL databases covering the January 2004–December 2015 period, then updated to July 2017, with the keywords ‘CM’ and ‘frequent use’. We extracted factors of successful (n=7) and unsuccessful (n=6) CM interventions and conducted a mixed thematic analysis to synthesise findings. Chaudoir’s implementation of health innovations framework was used to organise results into four broad levels of factors: (1) environmental/organisational level, (2) practitioner level, (3) patient level and (4) programme level. Results Access to, and close partnerships with, healthcare providers and community services resources were key factors of successful CM interventions that should target patients with the greatest needs and promote frequent contacts with the healthcare team. The selection and training of the case manager was also an important factor to foster patient engagement in CM. Coordination of care, self-management support and assistance with care navigation were key CM activities. The main issues reported by unsuccessful CM interventions were problems with case finding or lack of care integration. Conclusions CM interventions for frequent users of healthcare services should ensure adequate case finding processes, rigorous selection and training of the case manager, sufficient intensity of the intervention, as well as good care integration among all partners. Other studies could further evaluate the influence of contextual factors on intervention impacts. PMID:29061623

Convinced, ambivalent or annoyed: Tyrolean ski tourism stakeholders and their perceptions of climate change.

PubMed

Trawöger, Lisa

2014-02-01

Its focus on snow-dependent activities makes Alpine winter tourism especially sensitive to climate change. Stakeholder risk perceptions are a key factor in adaptation to climate change because they fundamentally drive or constrain stakeholder action. This paper examines climate change perceptions of winter tourism stakeholders in Tyrol (Austria). Using a qualitative approach, expert interviews were conducted. Four opinion categories reflecting different attitudes toward climate change issues were identified: convinced planners , annoyed deniers , ambivalent optimists , convinced wait-and-seers . Although the findings generally indicate a growing awareness of climate change, this awareness is mainly limited to perceiving the issue as a global phenomenon. Awareness of regional and branch-specific consequences of climate change that lead to a demand for action could not be identified. Current technical strategies, like snowmaking, are not primarily climate-induced. At present, coping with climate change is not a priority for risk management. The findings point out the importance of gaining and transferring knowledge of regional and branch-specific consequences of climate change in order to induce action at the destination level.

Convinced, ambivalent or annoyed: Tyrolean ski tourism stakeholders and their perceptions of climate change☆

PubMed Central

Trawöger, Lisa

2014-01-01

Its focus on snow-dependent activities makes Alpine winter tourism especially sensitive to climate change. Stakeholder risk perceptions are a key factor in adaptation to climate change because they fundamentally drive or constrain stakeholder action. This paper examines climate change perceptions of winter tourism stakeholders in Tyrol (Austria). Using a qualitative approach, expert interviews were conducted. Four opinion categories reflecting different attitudes toward climate change issues were identified: convinced planners, annoyed deniers, ambivalent optimists, convinced wait-and-seers. Although the findings generally indicate a growing awareness of climate change, this awareness is mainly limited to perceiving the issue as a global phenomenon. Awareness of regional and branch-specific consequences of climate change that lead to a demand for action could not be identified. Current technical strategies, like snowmaking, are not primarily climate-induced. At present, coping with climate change is not a priority for risk management. The findings point out the importance of gaining and transferring knowledge of regional and branch-specific consequences of climate change in order to induce action at the destination level. PMID:27064520

Evaluating the effects of climate change on summertime ozone using a relative response factor approach for policymakers.

PubMed

Avise, Jeremy; Abraham, Rodrigo Gonzalez; Chung, Serena H; Chen, Jack; Lamb, Brian; Salathé, Eric P; Zhang, Yongxin; Nolte, Christopher G; Loughlin, Daniel H; Guenther, Alex; Wiedinmyer, Christine; Duhl, Tiffany

2012-09-01

The impact of climate change on surface-level ozone is examined through a multiscale modeling effort that linked global and regional climate models to drive air quality model simulations. Results are quantified in terms of the relative response factor (RRF(E)), which estimates the relative change in peak ozone concentration for a given change in pollutant emissions (the subscript E is added to RRF to remind the reader that the RRF is due to emission changes only). A matrix of model simulations was conducted to examine the individual and combined effects offuture anthropogenic emissions, biogenic emissions, and climate on the RRF(E). For each member in the matrix of simulations the warmest and coolest summers were modeled for the present-day (1995-2004) and future (2045-2054) decades. A climate adjustment factor (CAF(C) or CAF(CB) when biogenic emissions are allowed to change with the future climate) was defined as the ratio of the average daily maximum 8-hr ozone simulated under a future climate to that simulated under the present-day climate, and a climate-adjusted RRF(EC) was calculated (RRF(EC) = RRF(E) x CAF(C)). In general, RRF(EC) > RRF(E), which suggests additional emission controls will be required to achieve the same reduction in ozone that would have been achieved in the absence of climate change. Changes in biogenic emissions generally have a smaller impact on the RRF(E) than does future climate change itself The direction of the biogenic effect appears closely linked to organic-nitrate chemistry and whether ozone formation is limited by volatile organic compounds (VOC) or oxides of nitrogen (NO(x) = NO + NO2). Regions that are generally NO(x) limited show a decrease in ozone and RRF(EC), while VOC-limited regions show an increase in ozone and RRF(EC). Comparing results to a previous study using different climate assumptions and models showed large variability in the CAF(CB). We present a methodology for adjusting the RRF to account for the influence of

On the key role of droughts in the dynamics of summer fires in Mediterranean Europe.

PubMed

Turco, Marco; von Hardenberg, Jost; AghaKouchak, Amir; Llasat, Maria Carmen; Provenzale, Antonello; Trigo, Ricardo M

2017-03-06

Summer fires frequently rage across Mediterranean Europe, often intensified by high temperatures and droughts. According to the state-of-the-art regional fire risk projections, in forthcoming decades climate effects are expected to become stronger and possibly overcome fire prevention efforts. However, significant uncertainties exist and the direct effect of climate change in regulating fuel moisture (e.g. warmer conditions increasing fuel dryness) could be counterbalanced by the indirect effects on fuel structure (e.g. warmer conditions limiting fuel amount), affecting the transition between climate-driven and fuel-limited fire regimes as temperatures increase. Here we analyse and model the impact of coincident drought and antecedent wet conditions (proxy for the climatic factor influencing total fuel and fine fuel structure) on the summer Burned Area (BA) across all eco-regions in Mediterranean Europe. This approach allows BA to be linked to the key drivers of fire in the region. We show a statistically significant relationship between fire and same-summer droughts in most regions, while antecedent climate conditions play a relatively minor role, except in few specific eco-regions. The presented models for individual eco-regions provide insights on the impacts of climate variability on BA, and appear to be promising for developing a seasonal forecast system supporting fire management strategies.

Violence Prevention and School Climate Reform. School Climate Brief, Number 5

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nader, Kathleen

2012-01-01

Research has demonstrated that a positive school climate is an essential part of violence prevention. Many factors influence the association between school climate and behavioral outcomes. Positive school climate alone cannot prevent all variables that may contribute to the expression of aggression. Nevertheless, positive school climates influence…

The relationship between team climate and interprofessional collaboration: Preliminary results of a mixed methods study.

PubMed

Agreli, Heloise F; Peduzzi, Marina; Bailey, Christopher

2017-03-01

Relational and organisational factors are key elements of interprofessional collaboration (IPC) and team climate. Few studies have explored the relationship between IPC and team climate. This article presents a study that aimed to explore IPC in primary healthcare teams and understand how the assessment of team climate may provide insights into IPC. A mixed methods study design was adopted. In Stage 1 of the study, team climate was assessed using the Team Climate Inventory with 159 professionals in 18 interprofessional teams based in São Paulo, Brazil. In Stage 2, data were collected through in-depth interviews with a sample of team members who participated in the first stage of the study. Results from Stage 1 provided an overview of factors relevant to teamwork, which in turn informed our exploration of the relationship between team climate and IPC. Preliminary findings from Stage 2 indicated that teams with a more positive team climate (in particular, greater participative safety) also reported more effective communication and mutual support. In conclusion, team climate provided insights into IPC, especially regarding aspects of communication and interaction in teams. Further research will provide a better understanding of differences and areas of overlap between team climate and IPC. It will potentially contribute for an innovative theoretical approach to explore interprofessional work in primary care settings.

Key for Trees of Iowa.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Coder, Kim D.; Wray, Paul H.

This key is designed to help identify the most common trees found in Iowa. It is based on vegetative characteristics such as leaves, fruits, and bark and is illustrated with black and white line drawings. Since vegetative characteristics vary due to climate, age, soil fertility, and other conditions, the numerical sizes listed, such as length and…

ClimateNet: A Machine Learning dataset for Climate Science Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prabhat, M.; Biard, J.; Ganguly, S.; Ames, S.; Kashinath, K.; Kim, S. K.; Kahou, S.; Maharaj, T.; Beckham, C.; O'Brien, T. A.; Wehner, M. F.; Williams, D. N.; Kunkel, K.; Collins, W. D.

2017-12-01

Deep Learning techniques have revolutionized commercial applications in Computer vision, speech recognition and control systems. The key for all of these developments was the creation of a curated, labeled dataset ImageNet, for enabling multiple research groups around the world to develop methods, benchmark performance and compete with each other. The success of Deep Learning can be largely attributed to the broad availability of this dataset. Our empirical investigations have revealed that Deep Learning is similarly poised to benefit the task of pattern detection in climate science. Unfortunately, labeled datasets, a key pre-requisite for training, are hard to find. Individual research groups are typically interested in specialized weather patterns, making it hard to unify, and share datasets across groups and institutions. In this work, we are proposing ClimateNet: a labeled dataset that provides labeled instances of extreme weather patterns, as well as associated raw fields in model and observational output. We develop a schema in NetCDF to enumerate weather pattern classes/types, store bounding boxes, and pixel-masks. We are also working on a TensorFlow implementation to natively import such NetCDF datasets, and are providing a reference convolutional architecture for binary classification tasks. Our hope is that researchers in Climate Science, as well as ML/DL, will be able to use (and extend) ClimateNet to make rapid progress in the application of Deep Learning for Climate Science research.

The Factor Replicability of the Litwin and Stringer Organizational Climate Questionnaire: An Inter- and Intra-Organizational Assessment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rogers, Evan D.; And Others

1980-01-01

Four recent factor analytic studies of the Litwin and Stringer Organizational Climate Questionnaire (LSOCQ) are compared. Although there is somewhat more intra- than inter-organizational replicability of factors, both comparisons raise considerable doubt about the validity of the Litwin and Stringer instrument. (Author)

Attribution of Observed Streamflow Changes in Key British Columbia Drainage Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Najafi, Mohammad Reza; Zwiers, Francis W.; Gillett, Nathan P.

2017-11-01

We study the observed decline in summer streamflow in four key river basins in British Columbia (BC), Canada, using a formal detection and attribution (D&A) analysis procedure. Reconstructed and simulated streamflow is generated using the semidistributed variable infiltration capacity hydrologic model, which is driven by 1/16° gridded observations and downscaled climate model data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), respectively. The internal variability of the regional hydrologic components using 5100 years of streamflow was simulated using CMIP5 preindustrial control runs. Results show that the observed changes in summer streamflow are inconsistent with simulations representing the responses to natural forcing factors alone, while the response to anthropogenic and natural forcing factors combined is detected in these changes. A two-signal D&A analysis indicates that the effects of anthropogenic (ANT) forcing factors are discernable from natural forcing in BC, albeit with large uncertainties.

Workforce perceptions of hospital safety culture: development and validation of the patient safety climate in healthcare organizations survey.

PubMed

Singer, Sara; Meterko, Mark; Baker, Laurence; Gaba, David; Falwell, Alyson; Rosen, Amy

2007-10-01

To describe the development of an instrument for assessing workforce perceptions of hospital safety culture and to assess its reliability and validity. Primary data collected between March 2004 and May 2005. Personnel from 105 U.S. hospitals completed a 38-item paper and pencil survey. We received 21,496 completed questionnaires, representing a 51 percent response rate. Based on review of existing safety climate surveys, we developed a list of key topics pertinent to maintaining a culture of safety in high-reliability organizations. We developed a draft questionnaire to address these topics and pilot tested it in four preliminary studies of hospital personnel. We modified the questionnaire based on experience and respondent feedback, and distributed the revised version to 42,249 hospital workers. We randomly divided respondents into derivation and validation samples. We applied exploratory factor analysis to responses in the derivation sample. We used those results to create scales in the validation sample, which we subjected to multitrait analysis (MTA). We identified nine constructs, three organizational factors, two unit factors, three individual factors, and one additional factor. Constructs demonstrated substantial convergent and discriminant validity in the MTA. Cronbach's alpha coefficients ranged from 0.50 to 0.89. It is possible to measure key salient features of hospital safety climate using a valid and reliable 38-item survey and appropriate hospital sample sizes. This instrument may be used in further studies to better understand the impact of safety climate on patient safety outcomes.

The Key Factors Analysis of Palisades Temperature in Deep Open-pit Mine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yuan; Du, Cuifeng; Jin, Wenbo; Wang, Puyu

2018-01-01

In order to study the key factors of palisades temperature field in a deep open-pit mine in the natural environment, the influence of natural factors on the palisades temperature in a deep open-pit mine were analysed based on the principle of heat transfer. Four typical places with different ways of solar radiation were selected to carry out the field test. The results show that solar radiation, atmospheric temperature, and wind speed are three main factors affecting the temperature of palisades and that the direct sunlight plays a leading role. The time period of the sun shining directly on the shady slope of the palisades is short because of blocking effect, whose temperature changes in a smaller scale. At the same time, the sun slope of the palisades suffers from the solar radiation for a long time, whose temperature changes in a larger scale, and the variation is similar to the air temperature.

Relative importance of management, meteorological and environmental factors in the spatial distribution of Fasciola hepatica in dairy cattle in a temperate climate zone.

PubMed

Bennema, S C; Ducheyne, E; Vercruysse, J; Claerebout, E; Hendrickx, G; Charlier, J

2011-02-01

Fasciola hepatica, a trematode parasite with a worldwide distribution, is the cause of important production losses in the dairy industry. Diagnosis is hampered by the fact that the infection is mostly subclinical. To increase awareness and develop regionally adapted control methods, knowledge on the spatial distribution of economically important infection levels is needed. Previous studies modelling the spatial distribution of F. hepatica are mostly based on single cross-sectional samplings and have focussed on climatic and environmental factors, often ignoring management factors. This study investigated the associations between management, climatic and environmental factors affecting the spatial distribution of infection with F. hepatica in dairy herds in a temperate climate zone (Flanders, Belgium) over three consecutive years. A bulk-tank milk antibody ELISA was used to measure F. hepatica infection levels in a random sample of 1762 dairy herds in the autumns of 2006, 2007 and 2008. The infection levels were included in a Geographic Information System together with meteorological, environmental and management parameters. Logistic regression models were used to determine associations between possible risk factors and infection levels. The prevalence and spatial distribution of F. hepatica was relatively stable, with small interannual differences in prevalence and location of clusters. The logistic regression model based on both management and climatic/environmental factors included the factors: annual rainfall, mowing of pastures, proportion of grazed grass in the diet and length of grazing season as significant predictors and described the spatial distribution of F. hepatica better than the model based on climatic/environmental factors only (annual rainfall, elevation and slope, soil type), with an Area Under the Curve of the Receiver Operating Characteristic of 0.68 compared with 0.62. The results indicate that in temperate climate zones without large climatic

The Study of Factor Structure and Reliability of an Abbreviated School Climate Survey

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ding, Cody; Liu, Ying; Berkowitz, Marvin

2011-01-01

The concept of school climate has been an important variable in research on quality of school life and student learning. One of the challenges in such a research effort is to develop instruments that could effectively and efficiently measure the construct. The purpose of the current study was to examine the factor structure and reliability of an…

Environment and Passive Climate Control Chiefly in Tropical Climates.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dean, John F.

This paper focuses on some of the effects of climate on library and archives collections in tropical climates, and discusses some prudent alternatives to the mechanical and chemical approaches commonly used to control climate and its immediate effects. One of the most important factors affecting the longevity of library and archival materials is…

Determining climate effects on US total agricultural productivity

PubMed Central

Wu, You; Chambers, Robert G.; Schmoldt, Daniel L.; Gao, Wei; Liu, Chaoshun; Liu, Yan-An; Sun, Chao; Kennedy, Jennifer A.

2017-01-01

The sensitivity of agricultural productivity to climate has not been sufficiently quantified. The total factor productivity (TFP) of the US agricultural economy has grown continuously for over half a century, with most of the growth typically attributed to technical change. Many studies have examined the effects of local climate on partial productivity measures such as crop yields and economic returns, but these measures cannot account for national-level impacts. Quantifying the relationships between TFP and climate is critical to understanding whether current US agricultural productivity growth will continue into the future. We analyze correlations between regional climate variations and national TFP changes, identify key climate indices, and build a multivariate regression model predicting the growth of agricultural TFP based on a physical understanding of its historical relationship with climate. We show that temperature and precipitation in distinct agricultural regions and seasons explain ∼70% of variations in TFP growth during 1981–2010. To date, the aggregate effects of these regional climate trends on TFP have been outweighed by improvements in technology. Should these relationships continue, however, the projected climate changes could cause TFP to drop by an average 2.84 to 4.34% per year under medium to high emissions scenarios. As a result, TFP could fall to pre-1980 levels by 2050 even when accounting for present rates of innovation. Our analysis provides an empirical foundation for integrated assessment by linking regional climate effects to national economic outcomes, offering a more objective resource for policy making. PMID:28265075

Modeling and projection of dengue fever cases in Guangzhou based on variation of weather factors.

PubMed

Li, Chenlu; Wang, Xiaofeng; Wu, Xiaoxu; Liu, Jianing; Ji, Duoying; Du, Juan

2017-12-15

Dengue fever is one of the most serious vector-borne infectious diseases, especially in Guangzhou, China. Dengue viruses and their vectors Aedes albopictus are sensitive to climate change primarily in relation to weather factors. Previous research has mainly focused on identifying the relationship between climate factors and dengue cases, or developing dengue case models with some non-climate factors. However, there has been little research addressing the modeling and projection of dengue cases only from the perspective of climate change. This study considered this topic using long time series data (1998-2014). First, sensitive weather factors were identified through meta-analysis that included literature review screening, lagged analysis, and collinear analysis. Then, key factors that included monthly average temperature at a lag of two months, and monthly average relative humidity and monthly average precipitation at lags of three months were determined. Second, time series Poisson analysis was used with the generalized additive model approach to develop a dengue model based on key weather factors for January 1998 to December 2012. Data from January 2013 to July 2014 were used to validate that the model was reliable and reasonable. Finally, future weather data (January 2020 to December 2070) were input into the model to project the occurrence of dengue cases under different climate scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). Longer time series analysis and scientifically selected weather variables were used to develop a dengue model to ensure reliability. The projections suggested that seasonal disease control (especially in summer and fall) and mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions could help reduce the incidence of dengue fever. The results of this study hope to provide a scientifically theoretical basis for the prevention and control of dengue fever in Guangzhou. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Arctic Freshwater Synthesis: Summary of key emerging issues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prowse, T.; Bring, A.; Mârd, J.; Carmack, E.; Holland, M.; Instanes, A.; Vihma, T.; Wrona, F. J.

2015-10-01

In response to a joint request from the World Climate Research Program's Climate and Cryosphere Project, the International Arctic Science Committee, and the Arctic Council's Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program an updated scientific assessment has been conducted of the Arctic Freshwater System (AFS), entitled the Arctic Freshwater Synthesis (AFSΣ). The major reason behind the joint request was an increasing concern that changes to the AFS have produced, and could produce even greater, changes to biogeophysical and socioeconomic systems of special importance to northern residents and also produce extra-Arctic climatic effects that will have global consequences. The AFSΣ was structured around six key thematic areas: atmosphere, oceans, terrestrial hydrology, terrestrial ecology, resources, and modeling, the review of each coauthored by an international group of scientists and published as separate manuscripts in this special issue of Journal of Geophysical Research-Biogeosciences. This AFSΣ summary manuscript reviews key issues that emerged during the conduct of the synthesis, especially those that are cross-thematic in nature, and identifies future research required to address such issues.

Vulnerability to extreme heat and climate change: is ethnicity a factor?

PubMed Central

Hansen, Alana; Bi, Linda; Saniotis, Arthur; Nitschke, Monika

2013-01-01

Background With a warming climate, it is important to identify sub-populations at risk of harm during extreme heat. Several international studies have reported that individuals from ethnic minorities are at increased risk of heat-related illness, for reasons that are not often discussed. Objective The aim of this article is to investigate the underpinning reasons as to why ethnicity may be associated with susceptibility to extreme heat, and how this may be relevant to Australia’s population. Design Drawing upon literary sources, the authors provide commentary on this important, yet poorly understood area of heat research. Results Social and economic disparities, living conditions, language barriers, and occupational exposure are among the many factors contributing to heat-susceptibility among minority ethnic groups in the United States. However, there is a knowledge gap about socio-cultural influences on vulnerability in other countries. Conclusion More research needs to be undertaken to determine the effects of heat on tourists, migrants, and refugees who are confronted with a different climatic environment. Thorough epidemiological investigations of the association between ethnicity and heat-related health outcomes are required, and this could be assisted with better reporting of nationality data in health statistics. Climate change adaptation strategies in Australia and elsewhere need to be ethnically inclusive and cognisant of an upward trend in the proportion of the population who are migrants and refugees. PMID:23899408

Vulnerability to extreme heat and climate change: is ethnicity a factor?

PubMed

Hansen, Alana; Bi, Linda; Saniotis, Arthur; Nitschke, Monika

2013-07-29

With a warming climate, it is important to identify sub-populations at risk of harm during extreme heat. Several international studies have reported that individuals from ethnic minorities are at increased risk of heat-related illness, for reasons that are not often discussed. The aim of this article is to investigate the underpinning reasons as to why ethnicity may be associated with susceptibility to extreme heat, and how this may be relevant to Australia's population. Drawing upon literary sources, the authors provide commentary on this important, yet poorly understood area of heat research. Social and economic disparities, living conditions, language barriers, and occupational exposure are among the many factors contributing to heat-susceptibility among minority ethnic groups in the United States. However, there is a knowledge gap about socio-cultural influences on vulnerability in other countries. More research needs to be undertaken to determine the effects of heat on tourists, migrants, and refugees who are confronted with a different climatic environment. Thorough epidemiological investigations of the association between ethnicity and heat-related health outcomes are required, and this could be assisted with better reporting of nationality data in health statistics. Climate change adaptation strategies in Australia and elsewhere need to be ethnically inclusive and cognisant of an upward trend in the proportion of the population who are migrants and refugees.

Risk and contributing factors of ecosystem shifts over naturally vegetated land under climate change in China

PubMed Central

Yin, Yuanyuan; Tang, Qiuhong; Wang, Lixin; Liu, Xingcai

2016-01-01

Identifying the areas at risk of ecosystem transformation and the main contributing factors to the risk is essential to assist ecological adaptation to climate change. We assessed the risk of ecosystem shifts in China using the projections of four global gridded vegetation models (GGVMs) and an aggregate metric. The results show that half of naturally vegetated land surface could be under moderate or severe risk at the end of the 21st century under the middle and high emission scenarios. The areas with high risk are the Tibetan Plateau region and an area extended northeastward from the Tibetan Plateau to northeast China. With the three major factors considered, the change in carbon stocks is the main contributing factor to the high risk of ecosystem shifts. The change in carbon fluxes is another important contributing factor under the high emission scenario. The change in water fluxes is a less dominant factor except for the Tibetan Plateau region under the high emission scenario. Although there is considerable uncertainty in the risk assessment, the geographic patterns of the risk are generally consistent across different scenarios. The results could help develop regional strategies for ecosystem conservation to cope with climate change. PMID:26867481

Risk and contributing factors of ecosystem shifts over naturally vegetated land under climate change in China.

PubMed

Yin, Yuanyuan; Tang, Qiuhong; Wang, Lixin; Liu, Xingcai

2016-02-12

Identifying the areas at risk of ecosystem transformation and the main contributing factors to the risk is essential to assist ecological adaptation to climate change. We assessed the risk of ecosystem shifts in China using the projections of four global gridded vegetation models (GGVMs) and an aggregate metric. The results show that half of naturally vegetated land surface could be under moderate or severe risk at the end of the 21(st) century under the middle and high emission scenarios. The areas with high risk are the Tibetan Plateau region and an area extended northeastward from the Tibetan Plateau to northeast China. With the three major factors considered, the change in carbon stocks is the main contributing factor to the high risk of ecosystem shifts. The change in carbon fluxes is another important contributing factor under the high emission scenario. The change in water fluxes is a less dominant factor except for the Tibetan Plateau region under the high emission scenario. Although there is considerable uncertainty in the risk assessment, the geographic patterns of the risk are generally consistent across different scenarios. The results could help develop regional strategies for ecosystem conservation to cope with climate change.

Arctic melt ponds and bifurcations in the climate system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sudakov, I.; Vakulenko, S. A.; Golden, K. M.

2015-05-01

Understanding how sea ice melts is critical to climate projections. In the Arctic, melt ponds that develop on the surface of sea ice floes during the late spring and summer largely determine their albedo - a key parameter in climate modeling. Here we explore the possibility of a conceptual sea ice climate model passing through a bifurcation point - an irreversible critical threshold as the system warms, by incorporating geometric information about melt pond evolution. This study is based on a bifurcation analysis of the energy balance climate model with ice-albedo feedback as the key mechanism driving the system to bifurcation points.

Key factors influencing lung cancer survival in northern Italy.

PubMed

Mangone, Lucia; Minicozzi, Pamela; Vicentini, Massimo; Giacomin, Adriano; Caldarella, Adele; Cirilli, Claudia; Falcini, Fabio; Giorgi Rossi, Paolo; Sant, Milena

2013-06-01

Lung cancer is a major cause of cancer death worldwide. The aims of this study were to analyze presentation, treatment and survival for lung cancer in northern Italy, and identify factors influencing survival. A total of 1180 lung cancer cases diagnosed in four north Italian cancer registries (Biella, Modena, Reggio Emilia, Romagna) in 2003-2005 were analyzed. Information on morphology, stage, diagnostic examinations, chemotherapy, radiotherapy, and surgical treatment was collected from clinical records. Three-year relative survival and relative excess risks of death were estimated. Overall, 10% of cases were stage I, 50% stage IV, and 12% stage unknown. Romagna - where sophisticated diagnostic examinations were performed more often - had proportionately more microscopically verified cases and resected cases than Biella. Romagna had also high proportions of cases given chemotherapy and radiotherapy. Three-year survival was 14%, range 10% (Biella) to 19% (Romagna); 69% for stage I, 3% for stage IV. Stage I survival was higher in Romagna (82%) than Reggio Emilia and Biella (60-61%) but for operated stage I cases, survival was similar (88%) in Romagna and Biella. The fully adjusted model showed a higher risk of death in Biella (1.23, 95%CI 1.02-1.48) than Modena (reference). Stage and surgery are key factors influencing survival. Centralizing lung cancer treatment to improve diagnostic work-up may improve outcomes. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Association between climate factors, pollen counts, and childhood hay fever prevalence in the United States.

PubMed

Silverberg, Jonathan I; Braunstein, Marc; Lee-Wong, Mary

2015-02-01

Climate factors and pollen counts may play a role in hay fever. We sought to determine the impact of specific climate factors and pollen counts on the US prevalence of hay fever and statewide variation in prevalence. We used a merged analysis of the 2007 National Survey of Children's Health from a representative sample of 91,642 children aged 0 to 17 years and the 2006-2007 National Climate Data Center and Weather Service measurements of relative humidity (%), indoor heating degree days, precipitation, Palmer Hydrological Drought Index, clear sky and issued ultraviolet indices, stratospheric ozone levels, and outdoor air temperature and National Allergy Bureau total pollen counts. Multivariate survey logistic regression models controlled for sex, race/ethnicity, age, household income, and birthplace. The US prevalence of hay fever in childhood was 18.0% (95% CI, 17.7% to 18.2%), with the highest prevalence in southeastern and southern states. Hay fever prevalence was significantly lower with second and third quartile mean annual relative humidity (logistic regression, P ≤ .01 for both), fourth quartile mean annual Palmer Hydrological Drought Index (P = .02), third and fourth quartile mean annual heating degree days (P < .0001 for both), and third and fourth quartile mean annual stratospheric ozone levels but increased with second, third, and fourth quartile mean annual temperature (P ≤ .02 for both), fourth quartile mean annual precipitation (P = .0007), mean total pollen counts (P = .01), and second, third, and fourth quartile issued ultraviolet index (P ≤ .0001 for all). Principal-component analysis was also used to determine the combined effects of correlated climate variables and pollen counts. This study provides evidence of the influence of climate on the US prevalence of childhood hay fever. Copyright © 2014 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Pacific Northwest's Climate Impacts Group: Climate Science in the Public Interest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mantua, N.; Snover, A.

2006-12-01

Since its inception in 1995, the University of Washington's Climate Impacts Group (CIG) (funded under NOAA's Regional Integrated Science and Assessments (RISA) Program) has become the leader in exploring the impacts of climate variability and climate change on natural and human systems in the U.S. Pacific Northwest (PNW), specifically climate impacts on water, forest, fish and coastal resource systems. The CIG's research provides PNW planners, decision makers, resource managers, local media, and the general public with valuable knowledge of ways in which the region's key natural resources are vulnerable to changes in climate, and how this vulnerability can be reduced. The CIG engages in climate science in the public interest, conducting original research on the causes and consequences of climate variability and change for the PNW and developing forecasts and decision support tools to support the use of this information in federal, state, local, tribal, and private sector resource management decisions. The CIG's focus on the intersection of climate science and public policy has placed the CIG nationally at the forefront of regional climate impacts assessment and integrated analysis.

Emission factors of atmospheric and climatic pollutants from crop residues burning.

PubMed

Santiago-De La Rosa, Naxieli; González-Cardoso, Griselda; Figueroa-Lara, José de Jesús; Gutiérrez-Arzaluz, Mirella; Octaviano-Villasana, Claudia; Ramírez-Hernández, Irma Fabiola; Mugica-Álvarez, Violeta

2018-04-13

Biomass burning is a common agricultural practice, because it allows elimination of postharvesting residues; nevertheless, it involves an inefficient combustion process that generates atmospheric pollutants emission, which has implications on health and climate change. This work focuses on the estimation of emission factors (EFs) of PM 2.5 , PM 10 , organic carbon (OC), elemental carbon (EC), carbon monoxide (CO), carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), and methane (CH 4 ) of residues from burning alfalfa, barley, beans, cotton, maize, rice, sorghum, and wheat in Mexico. Chemical characteristics of the residues were determined to establish their relationship with EFs, as well as with the modified combustion efficiency (MCE). Essays were carried out in an open combustion chamber with isokinetic sampling, following modified EPA 201-A method. EFs did not present statistical differences among different varieties of the same crop, but were statistically different among different crops, showing that generic values of EFs for all the agricultural residues can introduce significant uncertainties when used for climatic and atmospheric pollutant inventories. EFs of PM 2.5 ranged from 1.19 to 11.30 g kg -1 , and of PM 10 from 1.77 to 21.56 g kg -1 . EFs of EC correlated with lignin content, whereas EFs of OC correlated inversely with carbon content. EFs of EC and OC in PM 2.5 ranged from 0.15 to 0.41 g kg -1 and from 0.33 to 5.29 g kg -1 , respectively, and in PM 10 , from 0.17 to 0.43 g kg -1 and from 0.54 to 11.06 g kg -1 . CO 2 represented the largest gaseous emissions volume with 1053.35-1850.82 g kg -1 , whereas the lowest was CH 4 with 1.61-5.59 g kg -1 . CO ranged from 28.85 to 155.71 g kg -1 , correlating inversely with carbon content and MCE. EFs were used to calculate emissions from eight agricultural residues burning in the country during 2016, to know the potential mitigation of climatic and atmospheric pollutants, provided this practice was banned. The emission factors

Harvest time of Cryptomeria japonica seeds depending on climate factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Son, Seog-Gu; Kim, Hyo-Jeong; Kim, Chang-Soo; Byun, Kwang-Ok

2010-05-01

Sound seeds should have good germination rates and seed germination can be influenced by several factors. Seed picking time is regarded as one of the necessary elements to obtain sound seeds. From a clonal seed orchard of Cryptomeria japonica located in southern part of Korean peninsular, cones were picked about every 10 days from 30th of July 2005 to 30th of October in both 2005 and 2006. We have also analyzed the effects of climatic factors about two consecutive years on seed productivity. From the picked cones, seeds were collected and these germination ability, seed size and embryo shapes were investigated according to cone picking time. The 1,000-seed weight picked on 18th of August was 3.3 g and 5.3 g on 30th of September 2005and 2006. The size of seeds picked from 18th of August to 30th of September increased from 19.3 mm to 21.3 mm in length and from 15.8 mm to 18.5 mm in width. Depending on picking time, various shapes of embryos, including embryos with liquid material, jellied material and fully matured ones were observed. Germination aspects also varied throughout the test days. About two weeks after seeding in a glass petri-dish, germinal apparatuses appeared from each test seed sets which had been picked from after 10 August 2005 and 10 August 2006. The germination rates started from 10.7% from seeds picked 20 August 2006. Average germination rate in 2005 was 18.3 and 19.6 in 2006. In 2005, the highest germination rate was 34.3% from seeds picked on the 30th of September. In 2006, the highest germination rate was 31.7% for seeds picked at the same date as the 2005 seeds. After September, the highest germination rate for picked seeds decreased in both 2005 and 2006. Among the climatic factors, monthly sum of temperature and of precipitation were the main factors for maturation of C. japonica seeds. The results implied that the best cone picking time for the Korean C. japonica seed orchard to be around the end of September.

The climate change-infectious disease nexus: is it time for climate change syndemics?

PubMed

Heffernan, Claire

2013-12-01

Conceptualizing climate as a distinct variable limits our understanding of the synergies and interactions between climate change and the range of abiotic and biotic factors, which influence animal health. Frameworks such as eco-epidemiology and the epi-systems approach, while more holistic, view climate and climate change as one of many discreet drivers of disease. Here, I argue for a new paradigmatic framework: climate-change syndemics. Climate-change syndemics begins from the assumption that climate change is one of many potential influences on infectious disease processes, but crucially is unlikely to act independently or in isolation; and as such, it is the inter-relationship between factors that take primacy in explorations of infectious disease and climate change. Equally importantly, as climate change will impact a wide range of diseases, the frame of analysis is at the collective rather than individual level (for both human and animal infectious disease) across populations.

Growth responses of Scots pine to climatic factors on reclaimed oil shale mined land.

PubMed

Metslaid, Sandra; Stanturf, John A; Hordo, Maris; Korjus, Henn; Laarmann, Diana; Kiviste, Andres

2016-07-01

Afforestation on reclaimed mining areas has high ecological and economic importance. However, ecosystems established on post-mining substrate can become vulnerable due to climate variability. We used tree-ring data and dendrochronological techniques to study the relationship between climate variables and annual growth of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) growing on reclaimed open cast oil shale mining areas in Northeast Estonia. Chronologies for trees of different age classes (50, 40, 30) were developed. Pearson's correlation analysis between radial growth indices and monthly climate variables revealed that precipitation in June-July and higher mean temperatures in spring season enhanced radial growth of pine plantations, while higher than average temperatures in summer months inhibited wood production. Sensitivity of radial increment to climatic factors on post-mining soils was not homogenous among the studied populations. Older trees growing on more developed soils were more sensitive to precipitation deficit in summer, while growth indices of two other stand groups (young and middle-aged) were highly correlated to temperature. High mean temperatures in August were negatively related to annual wood production in all trees, while trees in the youngest stands benefited from warmer temperatures in January. As a response to thinning, mean annual basal area increment increased up to 50 %. By managing tree competition in the closed-canopy stands, through the thinning activities, tree sensitivity and response to climate could be manipulated.

Incorporating climate-system and carbon-cycle uncertainties in integrated assessments of climate change. (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogelj, J.; McCollum, D. L.; Reisinger, A.; Knutti, R.; Riahi, K.; Meinshausen, M.

2013-12-01

The field of integrated assessment draws from a large body of knowledge across a range of disciplines to gain robust insights about possible interactions, trade-offs, and synergies. Integrated assessment of climate change, for example, uses knowledge from the fields of energy system science, economics, geophysics, demography, climate change impacts, and many others. Each of these fields comes with its associated caveats and uncertainties, which should be taken into account when assessing any results. The geophysical system and its associated uncertainties are often represented by models of reduced complexity in integrated assessment modelling frameworks. Such models include simple representations of the carbon-cycle and climate system, and are often based on the global energy balance equation. A prominent example of such model is the 'Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Induced Climate Change', MAGICC. Here we show how a model like MAGICC can be used for the representation of geophysical uncertainties. Its strengths, weaknesses, and limitations are discussed and illustrated by means of an analysis which attempts to integrate socio-economic and geophysical uncertainties. These uncertainties in the geophysical response of the Earth system to greenhouse gases remains key for estimating the cost of greenhouse gas emission mitigation scenarios. We look at uncertainties in four dimensions: geophysical, technological, social and political. Our results indicate that while geophysical uncertainties are an important factor influencing projections of mitigation costs, political choices that delay mitigation by one or two decades a much more pronounced effect.

Probabilistic Integrated Assessment of ``Dangerous'' Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mastrandrea, Michael D.; Schneider, Stephen H.

2004-04-01

Climate policy decisions are being made despite layers of uncertainty. Such decisions directly influence the potential for ``dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.'' We mapped a metric for this concept, based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment of climate impacts, onto probability distributions of future climate change produced from uncertainty in key parameters of the coupled social-natural system-climate sensitivity, climate damages, and discount rate. Analyses with a simple integrated assessment model found that, under midrange assumptions, endogenously calculated, optimal climate policy controls can reduce the probability of dangerous anthropogenic interference from ~45% under minimal controls to near zero.

Ecologically-Relevant Maps of Landforms and Physiographic Diversity for Climate Adaptation Planning

PubMed Central

Theobald, David M.; Harrison-Atlas, Dylan; Monahan, William B.; Albano, Christine M.

2015-01-01

Key to understanding the implications of climate and land use change on biodiversity and natural resources is to incorporate the physiographic platform on which changes in ecological systems unfold. Here, we advance a detailed classification and high-resolution map of physiography, built by combining landforms and lithology (soil parent material) at multiple spatial scales. We used only relatively static abiotic variables (i.e., excluded climatic and biotic factors) to prevent confounding current ecological patterns and processes with enduring landscape features, and to make the physiographic classification more interpretable for climate adaptation planning. We generated novel spatial databases for 15 landform and 269 physiographic types across the conterminous United States of America. We examined their potential use by natural resource managers by placing them within a contemporary climate change adaptation framework, and found our physiographic databases could play key roles in four of seven general adaptation strategies. We also calculated correlations with common empirical measures of biodiversity to examine the degree to which the physiographic setting explains various aspects of current biodiversity patterns. Additionally, we evaluated the relationship between landform diversity and measures of climate change to explore how changes may unfold across a geophysical template. We found landform types are particularly sensitive to spatial scale, and so we recommend using high-resolution datasets when possible, as well as generating metrics using multiple neighborhood sizes to both minimize and characterize potential unknown biases. We illustrate how our work can inform current strategies for climate change adaptation. The analytical framework and classification of landforms and parent material are easily extendable to other geographies and may be used to promote climate change adaptation in other settings. PMID:26641818

Effect of global climate on termites population. Effect of termites population on global climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sapunov, Valentin

2010-05-01

The global climate is under control of factors having both earth and space origin. Global warming took place from XVII century till 1997. Then global cold snap began. This dynamics had effect on global distribution of some animals including termites. Direct human effect on climate is not significant. At the same time man plays role of trigger switching on significant biosphere processes controlling climate. The transformation of marginal lands, development of industry and building, stimulated increase of termite niche and population. Termite role in green house gases production increases too. It may have regular effect on world climate. The dry wood is substrate for metabolism of termites living under symbiosis with bacteria Hypermastigina (Flagellata). The use of dry wood by humanity increased from 18 *108 ton in XVIII to 9*109 to the middle of XX century. Then use of wood decreased because of a new technology development. Hence termite population is controlled by microevolution depending on dry wood and climate dynamics. Producing by them green house gases had reciprocal effect on world climate. It is possible to describe and predict dynamic of termite population using methods of mathematical ecology and analogs with other well studied insects (Colorado potatoes beetle, Chrisomelid beetle Zygogramma and so on). Reclamation of new ecological niche for such insects as termites needs 70 - 75 years. That is delay of population dynamics in relation to dynamics of dry wood production. General principles of population growth were described by G.Gause (1934) and some authors of the end of XX century. This works and analogs with other insects suggest model of termite distribution during XXI century. The extremum of population and its green house gases production would be gotten during 8 - 10 years. Then the number of specimens and sum biological mass would be stabilized and decreased. Termite gas production is not priority for climate regulation, but it has importance as

Fishing, fast growth and climate variability increase the risk of collapse

PubMed Central

Pinsky, Malin L.; Byler, David

2015-01-01

Species around the world have suffered collapses, and a key question is why some populations are more vulnerable than others. Traditional conservation biology and evidence from terrestrial species suggest that slow-growing populations are most at risk, but interactions between climate variability and harvest dynamics may alter or even reverse this pattern. Here, we test this hypothesis globally. We use boosted regression trees to analyse the influences of harvesting, species traits and climate variability on the risk of collapse (decline below a fixed threshold) across 154 marine fish populations around the world. The most important factor explaining collapses was the magnitude of overfishing, while the duration of overfishing best explained long-term depletion. However, fast growth was the next most important risk factor. Fast-growing populations and those in variable environments were especially sensitive to overfishing, and the risk of collapse was more than tripled for fast-growing when compared with slow-growing species that experienced overfishing. We found little evidence that, in the absence of overfishing, climate variability or fast growth rates alone drove population collapse over the last six decades. Expanding efforts to rapidly adjust harvest pressure to account for climate-driven lows in productivity could help to avoid future collapses, particularly among fast-growing species. PMID:26246548

Fishing, fast growth and climate variability increase the risk of collapse.

PubMed

Pinsky, Malin L; Byler, David

2015-08-22

Species around the world have suffered collapses, and a key question is why some populations are more vulnerable than others. Traditional conservation biology and evidence from terrestrial species suggest that slow-growing populations are most at risk, but interactions between climate variability and harvest dynamics may alter or even reverse this pattern. Here, we test this hypothesis globally. We use boosted regression trees to analyse the influences of harvesting, species traits and climate variability on the risk of collapse (decline below a fixed threshold) across 154 marine fish populations around the world. The most important factor explaining collapses was the magnitude of overfishing, while the duration of overfishing best explained long-term depletion. However, fast growth was the next most important risk factor. Fast-growing populations and those in variable environments were especially sensitive to overfishing, and the risk of collapse was more than tripled for fast-growing when compared with slow-growing species that experienced overfishing. We found little evidence that, in the absence of overfishing, climate variability or fast growth rates alone drove population collapse over the last six decades. Expanding efforts to rapidly adjust harvest pressure to account for climate-driven lows in productivity could help to avoid future collapses, particularly among fast-growing species. © 2015 The Author(s).

Effects of climatic factors on plasma lipid levels: A 5-year longitudinal study in a large Chinese population.

PubMed

Zhou, Xiaoming; Lin, Haiyan; Zhang, Shigang; Ren, Jianwei; Wang, Zhe; Zhang, Yun; Wang, Mansen; Zhang, Qunye

2016-01-01

The rules and mechanisms of seasonal changes in plasma lipid levels, which may be related to annual rhythmicity of incidence and mortality of cardiovascular diseases, are still controversial. The objectives of this study were to study the effects of climatic factors on plasma lipid levels and to preliminarily reveal mechanisms of annual rhythmicity of plasma lipid levels. A longitudinal study was performed using health examination data of 5 consecutive years (47,270 subjects) in Jinan, China. The climate in Jinan is typical temperate continental monsoon climate with huge temperature difference between winter and summer (>30°C). After considering and adjusting those classical lipid-associated risk factors, such as age, gender, diet, exercise, blood pressure, body weight, change of body weight, body mass index, glycemia, alanine aminotransferase, and creatinine, only air temperature could still significantly affect plasma lipid levels among the main climatic factors (humidity, precipitation, and so forth). For men, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol was decreased significantly 0.35, 0.18, and 0.06 mmol/L, respectively, whereas triglyceride was increased significantly 0.12 mmol/L for every 10°C increase in air temperature. For women, total cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol were decreased notably 0.73 and 0.32 mmol/L, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol was increased significantly 0.26 mmol/L for every 10°C increase in air temperature, whereas triglyceride was not significantly affected by air temperature. Air temperature is an independent risk factor for plasma lipid levels besides those classical lipid-associated risk factors. The annual air temperature fluctuations might be an important mechanism of the seasonal changes of lipids. Copyright © 2016 National Lipid Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The key role of dry days in changing regional climate and precipitation regimes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Polade, Suraj; Pierce, David W.; Cayan, Daniel R.; Gershunov, Alexander; Dettinger, Michael D.

2014-01-01

Future changes in the number of dry days per year can either reinforce or counteract projected increases in daily precipitation intensity as the climate warms. We analyze climate model projected changes in the number of dry days using 28 coupled global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, version 5 (CMIP5). We find that the Mediterranean Sea region, parts of Central and South America, and western Indonesia could experience up to 30 more dry days per year by the end of this century. We illustrate how changes in the number of dry days and the precipitation intensity on precipitating days combine to produce changes in annual precipitation, and show that over much of the subtropics the change in number of dry days dominates the annual changes in precipitation and accounts for a large part of the change in interannual precipitation variability.

Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review

PubMed Central

Thornton, Philip K; Ericksen, Polly J; Herrero, Mario; Challinor, Andrew J

2014-01-01

The focus of the great majority of climate change impact studies is on changes in mean climate. In terms of climate model output, these changes are more robust than changes in climate variability. By concentrating on changes in climate means, the full impacts of climate change on biological and human systems are probably being seriously underestimated. Here, we briefly review the possible impacts of changes in climate variability and the frequency of extreme events on biological and food systems, with a focus on the developing world. We present new analysis that tentatively links increases in climate variability with increasing food insecurity in the future. We consider the ways in which people deal with climate variability and extremes and how they may adapt in the future. Key knowledge and data gaps are highlighted. These include the timing and interactions of different climatic stresses on plant growth and development, particularly at higher temperatures, and the impacts on crops, livestock and farming systems of changes in climate variability and extreme events on pest-weed-disease complexes. We highlight the need to reframe research questions in such a way that they can provide decision makers throughout the food system with actionable answers, and the need for investment in climate and environmental monitoring. Improved understanding of the full range of impacts of climate change on biological and food systems is a critical step in being able to address effectively the effects of climate variability and extreme events on human vulnerability and food security, particularly in agriculturally based developing countries facing the challenge of having to feed rapidly growing populations in the coming decades. PMID:24668802

Vulnerability of European freshwater catchments to climate change.

PubMed

Markovic, Danijela; Carrizo, Savrina F; Kärcher, Oskar; Walz, Ariane; David, Jonathan N W

2017-09-01

Climate change is expected to exacerbate the current threats to freshwater ecosystems, yet multifaceted studies on the potential impacts of climate change on freshwater biodiversity at scales that inform management planning are lacking. The aim of this study was to fill this void through the development of a novel framework for assessing climate change vulnerability tailored to freshwater ecosystems. The three dimensions of climate change vulnerability are as follows: (i) exposure to climate change, (ii) sensitivity to altered environmental conditions and (iii) resilience potential. Our vulnerability framework includes 1685 freshwater species of plants, fishes, molluscs, odonates, amphibians, crayfish and turtles alongside key features within and between catchments, such as topography and connectivity. Several methodologies were used to combine these dimensions across a variety of future climate change models and scenarios. The resulting indices were overlaid to assess the vulnerability of European freshwater ecosystems at the catchment scale (18 783 catchments). The Balkan Lakes Ohrid and Prespa and Mediterranean islands emerge as most vulnerable to climate change. For the 2030s, we showed a consensus among the applied methods whereby up to 573 lake and river catchments are highly vulnerable to climate change. The anthropogenic disruption of hydrological habitat connectivity by dams is the major factor reducing climate change resilience. A gap analysis demonstrated that the current European protected area network covers <25% of the most vulnerable catchments. Practical steps need to be taken to ensure the persistence of freshwater biodiversity under climate change. Priority should be placed on enhancing stakeholder cooperation at the major basin scale towards preventing further degradation of freshwater ecosystems and maintaining connectivity among catchments. The catchments identified as most vulnerable to climate change provide preliminary targets for

Climate change: effects on animal disease systems and implications for surveillance and control.

PubMed

de La Rocque, S; Rioux, J A; Slingenbergh, J

2008-08-01

Climate driven and other changes in landscape structure and texture, plus more general factors, may create favourable ecological niches for emerging diseases. Abiotic factors impact on vectors, reservoirs and pathogen bionomics and their ability to establish in new ecosystems. Changes in climatic patterns and in seasonal conditions may affect disease behaviour in terms of spread pattern, diffusion range, amplification and persistence in novel habitats. Pathogen invasion may result in the emergence of novel disease complexes, presenting major challenges for the sustainability of future animal agriculture at the global level. In this paper, some of the ecological mechanisms underlying the impact of climatic change on disease transmission and disease spread are further described. Potential effects of different climatic variables on pathogens and host population dynamics and distribution are complex to assess, and different approaches are used to describe the underlying epidemiological processes and the availability of ecological niches for pathogens and vectors. The invasion process can disrupt the long-term co-evolution of species. Pathogens adhering to an r-type strategy (e.g. RNA viruses) may be more inclined to encroach on a novel niche resulting from climate change. However, even when linkage between disease dynamics and climate change are relatively strong, there are other factors changing disease behaviour, and these should be accounted for as well. Overall vulnerability of a given ecosystem is a key variable in this regard. The impact of climate-driven changes varies in different parts of the world and in the different agro-climatic zones. Perhaps priority should go to those geographical areas where the integrity of the ecosystem is most severely affected and the adaptability, in terms of robustness and sustainability of response, relatively low.

Vulnerability of southern plains agriculture to climate change

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate is a key driver for all ecological and economic systems; therefore, climate change introduces additional uncertainty and vulnerability into these systems. Agriculture represents a major land use that is critical to the survival of human societies and it is highly vulnerable to climate. Clima...

The influence of historical climate changes on Southern Ocean marine predator populations: a comparative analysis.

PubMed

Younger, Jane L; Emmerson, Louise M; Miller, Karen J

2016-02-01

The Southern Ocean ecosystem is undergoing rapid physical and biological changes that are likely to have profound implications for higher-order predators. Here, we compare the long-term, historical responses of Southern Ocean predators to climate change. We examine palaeoecological evidence for changes in the abundance and distribution of seabirds and marine mammals, and place these into context with palaeoclimate records in order to identify key environmental drivers associated with population changes. Our synthesis revealed two key factors underlying Southern Ocean predator population changes; (i) the availability of ice-free ground for breeding and (ii) access to productive foraging grounds. The processes of glaciation and sea ice fluctuation were key; the distributions and abundances of elephant seals, snow petrels, gentoo, chinstrap and Adélie penguins all responded strongly to the emergence of new breeding habitat coincident with deglaciation and reductions in sea ice. Access to productive foraging grounds was another limiting factor, with snow petrels, king and emperor penguins all affected by reduced prey availability in the past. Several species were isolated in glacial refugia and there is evidence that refuge populations were supported by polynyas. While the underlying drivers of population change were similar across most Southern Ocean predators, the individual responses of species to environmental change varied because of species specific factors such as dispersal ability and environmental sensitivity. Such interspecific differences are likely to affect the future climate change responses of Southern Ocean marine predators and should be considered in conservation plans. Comparative palaeoecological studies are a valuable source of long-term data on species' responses to environmental change that can provide important insights into future climate change responses. This synthesis highlights the importance of protecting productive foraging grounds

Conserving the Stage: Climate Change and the Geophysical Underpinnings of Species Diversity

PubMed Central

Anderson, Mark G.; Ferree, Charles E.

2010-01-01

Conservationists have proposed methods for adapting to climate change that assume species distributions are primarily explained by climate variables. The key idea is to use the understanding of species-climate relationships to map corridors and to identify regions of faunal stability or high species turnover. An alternative approach is to adopt an evolutionary timescale and ask ultimately what factors control total diversity, so that over the long run the major drivers of total species richness can be protected. Within a single climatic region, the temperate area encompassing all of the Northeastern U.S. and Maritime Canada, we hypothesized that geologic factors may take precedence over climate in explaining diversity patterns. If geophysical diversity does drive regional diversity, then conserving geophysical settings may offer an approach to conservation that protects diversity under both current and future climates. Here we tested how well geology predicts the species diversity of 14 US states and three Canadian provinces, using a comprehensive new spatial dataset. Results of linear regressions of species diversity on all possible combinations of 23 geophysical and climatic variables indicated that four geophysical factors; the number of geological classes, latitude, elevation range and the amount of calcareous bedrock, predicted species diversity with certainty (adj. R2 = 0.94). To confirm the species-geology relationships we ran an independent test using 18,700 location points for 885 rare species and found that 40% of the species were restricted to a single geology. Moreover, each geology class supported 5–95 endemic species and chi-square tests confirmed that calcareous bedrock and extreme elevations had significantly more rare species than expected by chance (P<0.0001), strongly corroborating the regression model. Our results suggest that protecting geophysical settings will conserve the stage for current and future biodiversity and may be a robust

Do Leadership Style, Unit Climate, and Safety Climate Contribute to Safe Medication Practices?

PubMed

Farag, Amany; Tullai-McGuinness, Susan; Anthony, Mary K; Burant, Christopher

2017-01-01

This study aims at: examining if leadership style and unit climate predict safety climate; and testing the direct, indirect, and total effect of leadership style, unit climate, and safety climate on nurses' safe medication practices. The Institute of Medicine and nursing scholars propose that safety climate is a prerequisite to safety practices. However, there is limited empirical evidence about factors contributing to the development of safety climate and about the association with nurses' safe medication practices. This cross-sectional study used survey data from 246 RNs working in a Magnet® hospital. Leadership style and unit climate predicted 20% to 50% of variance on all safety climate dimensions. Model testing revealed the indirect impact of leadership style and unit climate on nurses' safe medication practices. Our hypothesized model explained small amount of the variance on nurses' safe medication practices. This finding suggests that nurses' safe medication practices are influenced by multiple contextual and personal factors that should be further examined.

The Importance of Considering the Temporal Distribution of Climate Variables for Ecological-Economic Modeling to Calculate the Consequences of Climate Change for Agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plegnière, Sabrina; Casper, Markus; Hecker, Benjamin; Müller-Fürstenberger, Georg

2014-05-01

The basis of many models to calculate and assess climate change and its consequences are annual means of temperature and precipitation. This method leads to many uncertainties especially at the regional or local level: the results are not realistic or too coarse. Particularly in agriculture, single events and the distribution of precipitation and temperature during the growing season have enormous influences on plant growth. Therefore, the temporal distribution of climate variables should not be ignored. To reach this goal, a high-resolution ecological-economic model was developed which combines a complex plant growth model (STICS) and an economic model. In this context, input data of the plant growth model are daily climate values for a specific climate station calculated by the statistical climate model (WETTREG). The economic model is deduced from the results of the plant growth model STICS. The chosen plant is corn because corn is often cultivated and used in many different ways. First of all, a sensitivity analysis showed that the plant growth model STICS is suitable to calculate the influences of different cultivation methods and climate on plant growth or yield as well as on soil fertility, e.g. by nitrate leaching, in a realistic way. Additional simulations helped to assess a production function that is the key element of the economic model. Thereby the problems when using mean values of temperature and precipitation in order to compute a production function by linear regression are pointed out. Several examples show why a linear regression to assess a production function based on mean climate values or smoothed natural distribution leads to imperfect results and why it is not possible to deduce a unique climate factor in the production function. One solution for this problem is the additional consideration of stress indices that show the impairment of plants by water or nitrate shortage. Thus, the resulting model takes into account not only the ecological

On the data-driven inference of modulatory networks in climate science: an application to West African rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González, D. L., II; Angus, M. P.; Tetteh, I. K.; Bello, G. A.; Padmanabhan, K.; Pendse, S. V.; Srinivas, S.; Yu, J.; Semazzi, F.; Kumar, V.; Samatova, N. F.

2015-01-01

Decades of hypothesis-driven and/or first-principles research have been applied towards the discovery and explanation of the mechanisms that drive climate phenomena, such as western African Sahel summer rainfall~variability. Although connections between various climate factors have been theorized, not all of the key relationships are fully understood. We propose a data-driven approach to identify candidate players in this climate system, which can help explain underlying mechanisms and/or even suggest new relationships, to facilitate building a more comprehensive and predictive model of the modulatory relationships influencing a climate phenomenon of interest. We applied coupled heterogeneous association rule mining (CHARM), Lasso multivariate regression, and dynamic Bayesian networks to find relationships within a complex system, and explored means with which to obtain a consensus result from the application of such varied methodologies. Using this fusion of approaches, we identified relationships among climate factors that modulate Sahel rainfall. These relationships fall into two categories: well-known associations from prior climate knowledge, such as the relationship with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and putative links, such as North Atlantic Oscillation, that invite further research.

On the data-driven inference of modulatory networks in climate science: An application to West African rainfall

DOE PAGES

Gonzalez, II, D. L.; Angus, M. P.; Tetteh, I. K.; ...

2015-01-13

Decades of hypothesis-driven and/or first-principles research have been applied towards the discovery and explanation of the mechanisms that drive climate phenomena, such as western African Sahel summer rainfall~variability. Although connections between various climate factors have been theorized, not all of the key relationships are fully understood. We propose a data-driven approach to identify candidate players in this climate system, which can help explain underlying mechanisms and/or even suggest new relationships, to facilitate building a more comprehensive and predictive model of the modulatory relationships influencing a climate phenomenon of interest. We applied coupled heterogeneous association rule mining (CHARM), Lasso multivariate regression,more » and dynamic Bayesian networks to find relationships within a complex system, and explored means with which to obtain a consensus result from the application of such varied methodologies. Using this fusion of approaches, we identified relationships among climate factors that modulate Sahel rainfall. As a result, these relationships fall into two categories: well-known associations from prior climate knowledge, such as the relationship with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and putative links, such as North Atlantic Oscillation, that invite further research.« less

The Role of Health in Climate Litigation

PubMed Central

Simmens, Samuel J.; Glicksman, Robert; Paddock, LeRoy; Kim, Daniel; Whited, Brittany

2018-01-01

Objectives. To examine how the courts, which play a critical role in shaping public policy, consider public health in climate change and coal-fired power plant lawsuits. Methods. We coded US local, state, and federal court decisions relating to climate change and coal-fired power plants from 1990 to 2016 (n = 873) and qualitatively investigated 139 cases in which litigants raised issues concerning the health impacts of climate change. We also conducted 78 interviews with key litigants, advocates, industry representatives, advising scientists, and legal experts. Results. Health has been a critical consideration in key climate lawsuits, but in a minority of cases. Litigants have presented health arguments most frequently and effectively in terms of airborne exposures. Health impacts have typically been used to gain standing and argue that the evidence for government actions is insufficient. Conclusions. The courts represent a pivotal branch of government in shaping climate policy. Increasing inclusion of health concerns in emergent areas of litigation could help drive more effective climate policymaking. PMID:29698089

Mode and climatic factors effect on energy losses in transient heat modes of transmission lines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bigun, A. Ya; Sidorov, O. A.; Osipov, D. S.; Girshin, S. S.; Goryunov, V. N.; Petrova, E. V.

2018-01-01

Electrical energy losses increase in modern grids. The losses are connected with an increase in consumption. Existing models of electric power losses estimation considering climatic factors do not allow estimating the cable temperature in real time. Considering weather and mode factors in real time allows to meet effectively and safely the consumer’s needs to minimize energy losses during transmission, to use electric power equipment effectively. These factors increase an interest in the evaluation of the dynamic thermal mode of overhead transmission lines conductors. The article discusses an approximate analytic solution of the heat balance equation in the transient operation mode of overhead lines based on the least squares method. The accuracy of the results obtained is comparable with the results of solving the heat balance equation of transient thermal mode with the Runge-Kutt method. The analysis of mode and climatic factors effect on the cable temperature in a dynamic thermal mode is presented. The calculation of the maximum permissible current for variation of weather conditions is made. The average electric energy losses during the transient process are calculated with the change of wind, air temperature and solar radiation. The parameters having the greatest effect on the transmission capacity are identified.

The Dependencies of Ecosystem Pattern, Structure, and Dynamics on Climate, Climate Variability, and Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flanagan, S.; Hurtt, G. C.; Fisk, J. P.; Rourke, O.

2012-12-01

A robust understanding of the sensitivity of the pattern, structure, and dynamics of ecosystems to climate, climate variability, and climate change is needed to predict ecosystem responses to current and projected climate change. We present results of a study designed to first quantify the sensitivity of ecosystems to climate through the use of climate and ecosystem data, and then use the results to test the sensitivity of the climate data in a state-of the art ecosystem model. A database of available ecosystem characteristics such as mean canopy height, above ground biomass, and basal area was constructed from sources like the National Biomass and Carbon Dataset (NBCD). The ecosystem characteristics were then paired by latitude and longitude with the corresponding climate characteristics temperature, precipitation, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and dew point that were retrieved from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). The average yearly and seasonal means of the climate data, and their associated maximum and minimum values, over the 1979-2010 time frame provided by NARR were constructed and paired with the ecosystem data. The compiled results provide natural patterns of vegetation structure and distribution with regard to climate data. An advanced ecosystem model, the Ecosystem Demography model (ED), was then modified to allow yearly alterations to its mechanistic climate lookup table and used to predict the sensitivities of ecosystem pattern, structure, and dynamics to climate data. The combined ecosystem structure and climate data results were compared to ED's output to check the validity of the model. After verification, climate change scenarios such as those used in the last IPCC were run and future forest structure changes due to climate sensitivities were identified. The results of this study can be used to both quantify and test key relationships for next generation models. The sensitivity of ecosystem characteristics to climate data

Analyzing the impact of climate and management factors on the productivity and soil carbon sequestration of poplar plantations.

PubMed

Wang, Dan; Fan, Jiazhi; Jing, Panpan; Cheng, Yong; Ruan, Honghua

2016-01-01

It is crucial to investigate how climate and management factors impact poplar plantation production and soil carbon sequestration interactively. We extracted above-ground net primary production (ANPP), climate and management factors from peer-reviewed journal articles and analyzed impact of management factor and climate on the mean annual increment (MAI) of poplar ANPP statistically. Previously validated mechanistic model (ED) is used to perform case simulations for managed poplar plantations under different harvesting rotations. The meta-analysis indicate that the dry matter MAI was 6.3 Mg ha(-1) yr(-1) (n=641, sd=4.9) globally, and 5.1 (n=292, sd=4.0), 8.1 (n=224, sd=4.7) and 4.4 Mg ha(-1) yr(-1) (n=125, sd=3.2) in Europe, the US and China, respectively. Poplar MAI showed a significant response to GDD, precipitation and planting density and formed a quadratic relationship with stand age. The low annual production for poplar globally was probably caused by suboptimal water availability, rotation length and planting density. SEM attributes the variance of poplar growth rate more to climate than to management effects. Case simulations indicated that longer rotation cycle significantly increased soil carbon storage. Findings of this work suggests that management factor of rotation cycle alone could have dramatic impact on the above ground growth, as well as on the soil carbon sequestration of poplar plantations and will be helpful to quantify the long-term carbon sequestration through short rotation plantation. The findings of this study are useful in guiding further research, policy and management decisions towards sustainable poplar plantations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A new scenario framework for climate change research: The concept of Shared Climate Policy Assumptions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kriegler, Elmar; Edmonds, James A.; Hallegatte, Stephane

2014-04-01

The paper presents the concept of shared climate policy assumptions as an important element of the new scenario framework. Shared climate policy assumptions capture key climate policy dimensions such as the type and scale of mitigation and adaptation measures. They are not specified in the socio-economic reference pathways, and therefore introduce an important third dimension to the scenario matrix architecture. Climate policy assumptions will have to be made in any climate policy scenario, and can have a significant impact on the scenario description. We conclude that a meaningful set of shared climate policy assumptions is useful for grouping individual climatemore » policy analyses and facilitating their comparison. Shared climate policy assumptions should be designed to be policy relevant, and as a set to be broad enough to allow a comprehensive exploration of the climate change scenario space.« less

Key Factors in the Success of an Organization's Information Security Culture: A Quantitative Study and Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pierce, Robert E.

2012-01-01

This research study reviewed relative literature on information security and information security culture within organizations to determine what factors potentially assist an organization in implementing, integrating, and maintaining a successful organizational information security culture. Based on this review of literature, five key factors were…

Workforce Perceptions of Hospital Safety Culture: Development and Validation of the Patient Safety Climate in Healthcare Organizations Survey

PubMed Central

Singer, Sara; Meterko, Mark; Baker, Laurence; Gaba, David; Falwell, Alyson; Rosen, Amy

2007-01-01

Objective To describe the development of an instrument for assessing workforce perceptions of hospital safety culture and to assess its reliability and validity. Data Sources/Study Setting Primary data collected between March 2004 and May 2005. Personnel from 105 U.S. hospitals completed a 38-item paper and pencil survey. We received 21,496 completed questionnaires, representing a 51 percent response rate. Study Design Based on review of existing safety climate surveys, we developed a list of key topics pertinent to maintaining a culture of safety in high-reliability organizations. We developed a draft questionnaire to address these topics and pilot tested it in four preliminary studies of hospital personnel. We modified the questionnaire based on experience and respondent feedback, and distributed the revised version to 42,249 hospital workers. Data Collection We randomly divided respondents into derivation and validation samples. We applied exploratory factor analysis to responses in the derivation sample. We used those results to create scales in the validation sample, which we subjected to multitrait analysis (MTA). Principal Findings We identified nine constructs, three organizational factors, two unit factors, three individual factors, and one additional factor. Constructs demonstrated substantial convergent and discriminant validity in the MTA. Cronbach's α coefficients ranged from 0.50 to 0.89. Conclusions It is possible to measure key salient features of hospital safety climate using a valid and reliable 38-item survey and appropriate hospital sample sizes. This instrument may be used in further studies to better understand the impact of safety climate on patient safety outcomes. PMID:17850530

Scaling and contextualizing climate-conflict nexus in historical agrarian China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Harry F.

2017-04-01

This study examines climate-conflict nexus in historical agrarian China in multi-scalar and contextualized approach, illustrating what and how socio-political factors could significantly mediate the climate-violent link in pre-industrial society. Previous empirical large-N studies show that violent conflict in historical agrarian society was triggered by climate-induced food scarcity. The relationship was valid in China, Europe, and various geographic regions in the Northern Hemisphere in pre-industrial era. Nevertheless, the observed relationship has only been verified at a macro level (long-term variability of the nexus is emphasized and data over large area are aggregated), and somewhat generalized in nature (only physical environmental factors are controlled). Three inter-related issues remain unresolved: First, the key explanatory variable of violent conflicts may change substantially at different spatio-temporal scales. It is necessary to check whether the climate-conflict nexus is valid at a micro level (about short-term variability of the nexus and data in finer spatial resolution), and explore how the nexus changes along various spatio-temporal dimensions. Second, as the climate-conflict nexus has only been demonstrated in a broad sense, it is necessary to check whether and how the nexus is mediated by local socio-political context. More non-climatic factors pertinent to the cause and distribution of conflicts (e.g., governance, adaptive mechanisms, etc.) should be considered. Third, the methodology applied in the previous studies assumes spatially-independent observations and linear relationship, which may simplify the climate-conflict link. Moreover, the solitary reliance on quantitative methods may neglect those non-quantifiable socio-political dynamics which mediates the climate-conflict nexus. I plan to address the above issues by using disaggregated spatial analysis and in-depth case studies, with close attention to local and temporal differences and

Influence of Geographic Factors on the Life Cycle Climate Change Impacts of Renewable Energy Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fortier, M. O. P.

2017-12-01

Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a valuable tool to measure the cradle-to-grave climate change impacts of the sustainable energy systems that are planned to replace conventional fossil energy-based systems. The recent inclusion of geographic specificity in bioenergy LCAs has shown that the relative sustainability of these energy sources is often dependent on geographic factors, such as the climate change impact of changing the land cover and local resource availability. However, this development has not yet been implemented to most LCAs of energy systems that do not have biological feedstocks, such as wind, water, and solar-based energy systems. For example, the tidal velocity where tidal rotors are installed can significantly alter the life cycle climate change impacts of electricity generated using the same technology in different locations. For LCAs of solar updraft towers, the albedo change impacts arising from changing the reflectivity of the land that would be converted can be of the same magnitude as other life cycle process climate change impacts. Improvements to determining the life cycle climate change impacts of renewable energy technologies can be made by utilizing GIS and satellite data and by conducting site-specific analyses. This practice can enhance our understanding of the life cycle environmental impacts of technologies that are aimed to reduce the impacts of our current energy systems, and it can improve the siting of new systems to optimize a reduction in climate change impacts.

Agulhas leakage as a key process in the modes of Quaternary climate changes

PubMed Central

Caley, Thibaut; Giraudeau, Jacques; Malaizé, Bruno; Rossignol, Linda; Pierre, Catherine

2012-01-01

Heat and salt transfer from the Indian Ocean to the Atlantic Ocean (Agulhas leakage) has an important effect on the global thermohaline circulation and climate. The lack of long transfer record prevents elucidation of its role on climate changes throughout the Quaternary. Here, we present a 1,350-ka accumulation rate record of the planktic foraminiferal species Globorotalia menardii. We demonstrate that, according to previous assumptions, the presence and reseeding of this fauna in the subtropical southeast Atlantic was driven by interocean exchange south of Africa. The Agulhas transfer strengthened at glacial ice-volume maxima for every glacial-interglacial transition, with maximum reinforcements organized according to a 400-ka periodicity. The long-term dynamics of Agulhas leakage may have played a crucial role in regulating meridional overturning circulation and global climate changes during the Mid-Brunhes event and the Mid-Pleistocene transition, and could also play an important role in the near future. PMID:22508999

Agulhas leakage as a key process in the modes of Quaternary climate changes.

PubMed

Caley, Thibaut; Giraudeau, Jacques; Malaizé, Bruno; Rossignol, Linda; Pierre, Catherine

2012-05-01

Heat and salt transfer from the Indian Ocean to the Atlantic Ocean (Agulhas leakage) has an important effect on the global thermohaline circulation and climate. The lack of long transfer record prevents elucidation of its role on climate changes throughout the Quaternary. Here, we present a 1,350-ka accumulation rate record of the planktic foraminiferal species Globorotalia menardii. We demonstrate that, according to previous assumptions, the presence and reseeding of this fauna in the subtropical southeast Atlantic was driven by interocean exchange south of Africa. The Agulhas transfer strengthened at glacial ice-volume maxima for every glacial-interglacial transition, with maximum reinforcements organized according to a 400-ka periodicity. The long-term dynamics of Agulhas leakage may have played a crucial role in regulating meridional overturning circulation and global climate changes during the Mid-Brunhes event and the Mid-Pleistocene transition, and could also play an important role in the near future.

[Spatial distribution characteristics of China cotton fiber quality and climatic factors based on GIS].

PubMed

Xiong, Zong-Wei; Gu, Sheng-Hao; Mao, Li-Li; Wang, Xue-Jiao; Zhang, Li-Zhen; Zhou, Zhi-Guo

2012-12-01

By using geographical information system (GIS), the cotton fiber quality data from 2005 to 2011 and the daily meteorological data from 1981 to 2010 at 82 sites (counties and cities) in China major cotton production regions were collected and treated with spatial interpolation. The spatial information system of cotton fiber quality in China major cotton production regions was established based on GIS, and the spatial distribution characteristics of the cotton fiber quality and their relationships with the local climatic factors were analyzed. In the northwest region (especially Xinjiang) of China, due to the abundant sunlight, low precipitation, and low relative humidity, the cotton fiber length, micronaire, and grade ranked the first. In the Yangtze River region and Yellow River region, the specific strength of cotton fiber was higher, and in the Yangtze River region, the cotton fiber length and specific strength were higher, while the micronaire and grade were lower than those in the Yellow River region. The cotton fiber quality was closely related to the climate factors such as temperature, sunlight, rainfall, and humidity.

Climate Benchmark Missions: CLARREO

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wielicki, Bruce A.; Young, David F.

2010-01-01

CLARREO (Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory) is one of the four Tier 1 missions recommended by the recent NRC decadal survey report on Earth Science and Applications from Space (NRC, 2007). The CLARREO mission addresses the need to rigorously observe climate change on decade time scales and to use decadal change observations as the most critical method to determine the accuracy of climate change projections such as those used in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4). A rigorously known accuracy of both decadal change observations as well as climate projections is critical in order to enable sound policy decisions. The CLARREO mission accomplishes this critical objective through highly accurate and SI traceable decadal change observations sensitive to many of the key uncertainties in climate radiative forcings, responses, and feedbacks that in turn drive uncertainty in current climate model projections. The same uncertainties also lead to uncertainty in attribution of climate change to anthropogenic forcing. The CLARREO breakthrough in decadal climate change observations is to achieve the required levels of accuracy and traceability to SI standards for a set of observations sensitive to a wide range of key decadal change variables. These accuracy levels are determined both by the projected decadal changes as well as by the background natural variability that such signals must be detected against. The accuracy for decadal change traceability to SI standards includes uncertainties of calibration, sampling, and analysis methods. Unlike most other missions, all of the CLARREO requirements are judged not by instantaneous accuracy, but instead by accuracy in large time/space scale average decadal changes. Given the focus on decadal climate change, the NRC Decadal Survey concluded that the single most critical issue for decadal change observations was their lack of accuracy and low confidence in

Spatio-temporal dynamics of maize yield water constraints under climate change in Spain.

PubMed

Ferrero, Rosana; Lima, Mauricio; Gonzalez-Andujar, Jose Luis

2014-01-01

Many studies have analyzed the impact of climate change on crop productivity, but comparing the performance of water management systems has rarely been explored. Because water supply and crop demand in agro-systems may be affected by global climate change in shaping the spatial patterns of agricultural production, we should evaluate how and where irrigation practices are effective in mitigating climate change effects. Here we have constructed simple, general models, based on biological mechanisms and a theoretical framework, which could be useful in explaining and predicting crop productivity dynamics. We have studied maize in irrigated and rain-fed systems at a provincial scale, from 1996 to 2009 in Spain, one of the most prominent "hot-spots" in future climate change projections. Our new approach allowed us to: (1) evaluate new structural properties such as the stability of crop yield dynamics, (2) detect nonlinear responses to climate change (thresholds and discontinuities), challenging the usual linear way of thinking, and (3) examine spatial patterns of yield losses due to water constraints and identify clusters of provinces that have been negatively affected by warming. We have reduced the uncertainty associated with climate change impacts on maize productivity by improving the understanding of the relative contributions of individual factors and providing a better spatial comprehension of the key processes. We have identified water stress and water management systems as being key causes of the yield gap, and detected vulnerable regions where efforts in research and policy should be prioritized in order to increase maize productivity.

Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Maize Yield Water Constraints under Climate Change in Spain

PubMed Central

Ferrero, Rosana; Lima, Mauricio; Gonzalez-Andujar, Jose Luis

2014-01-01

Many studies have analyzed the impact of climate change on crop productivity, but comparing the performance of water management systems has rarely been explored. Because water supply and crop demand in agro-systems may be affected by global climate change in shaping the spatial patterns of agricultural production, we should evaluate how and where irrigation practices are effective in mitigating climate change effects. Here we have constructed simple, general models, based on biological mechanisms and a theoretical framework, which could be useful in explaining and predicting crop productivity dynamics. We have studied maize in irrigated and rain-fed systems at a provincial scale, from 1996 to 2009 in Spain, one of the most prominent “hot-spots” in future climate change projections. Our new approach allowed us to: (1) evaluate new structural properties such as the stability of crop yield dynamics, (2) detect nonlinear responses to climate change (thresholds and discontinuities), challenging the usual linear way of thinking, and (3) examine spatial patterns of yield losses due to water constraints and identify clusters of provinces that have been negatively affected by warming. We have reduced the uncertainty associated with climate change impacts on maize productivity by improving the understanding of the relative contributions of individual factors and providing a better spatial comprehension of the key processes. We have identified water stress and water management systems as being key causes of the yield gap, and detected vulnerable regions where efforts in research and policy should be prioritized in order to increase maize productivity. PMID:24878747

Psychological research and global climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clayton, Susan; Devine-Wright, Patrick; Stern, Paul C.; Whitmarsh, Lorraine; Carrico, Amanda; Steg, Linda; Swim, Janet; Bonnes, Mirilia

2015-07-01

Human behaviour is integral not only to causing global climate change but also to responding and adapting to it. Here, we argue that psychological research should inform efforts to address climate change, to avoid misunderstandings about human behaviour and motivations that can lead to ineffective or misguided policies. We review three key research areas: describing human perceptions of climate change; understanding and changing individual and household behaviour that drives climate change; and examining the human impacts of climate change and adaptation responses. Although much has been learned in these areas, we suggest important directions for further research.

Key Motivational Factors in the Retention of Three Generations of Public High School Mathematics Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pospichal, Wendy

2011-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to describe and compare the similarities and differences between five key motivational factors: (a) new teacher induction, (b) noninduction mentor support in the early years of teaching, (c) salary and benefits, (d) working conditions, and (e) administrative support influential in retention of employment in…

Farmers' Perceived Risks of Climate Change and Influencing Factors: A Study in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Dang, Hoa; Li, Elton; Nuberg, Ian; Bruwer, Johan

2014-08-01

Many countries are confronting climate change that threatens agricultural production and farmers' lives. Farmers' perceived risks of climate change and factors influencing those perceived risks are critical to their adaptive behavior and well-planned adaptation strategies. However, there is limited understanding of these issues. In this paper, we attempt to quantitatively measure farmers' perceived risks of climate change and explore the influences of risk experience, information, belief in climate change, and trust in public adaptation to those perceived risks. Data are from structured interviews with 598 farmers in the Mekong Delta. The study shows that perceived risks to production, physical health, and income dimensions receive greater priority while farmers pay less attention to risks to happiness and social relationships. Experiences of the events that can be attributed to climate change increase farmers' perceived risks. Information variables can increase or decrease perceived risks, depending on the sources of information. Farmers who believe that climate change is actually happening and influencing their family's lives, perceive higher risks in most dimensions. Farmers who think that climate change is not their concern but the government's, perceive lower risks to physical health, finance, and production. As to trust in public adaptation, farmers who believe that public adaptive measures are well co-ordinated, perceive lower risks to production and psychology. Interestingly, those who believe that the disaster warning system is working well, perceive higher risks to finance, production, and social relationships. Further attention is suggested for the quality, timing, and channels of information about climate change and adaptation.

Farmers' perceived risks of climate change and influencing factors: a study in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam.

PubMed

Le Dang, Hoa; Li, Elton; Nuberg, Ian; Bruwer, Johan

2014-08-01

Many countries are confronting climate change that threatens agricultural production and farmers' lives. Farmers' perceived risks of climate change and factors influencing those perceived risks are critical to their adaptive behavior and well-planned adaptation strategies. However, there is limited understanding of these issues. In this paper, we attempt to quantitatively measure farmers' perceived risks of climate change and explore the influences of risk experience, information, belief in climate change, and trust in public adaptation to those perceived risks. Data are from structured interviews with 598 farmers in the Mekong Delta. The study shows that perceived risks to production, physical health, and income dimensions receive greater priority while farmers pay less attention to risks to happiness and social relationships. Experiences of the events that can be attributed to climate change increase farmers' perceived risks. Information variables can increase or decrease perceived risks, depending on the sources of information. Farmers who believe that climate change is actually happening and influencing their family's lives, perceive higher risks in most dimensions. Farmers who think that climate change is not their concern but the government's, perceive lower risks to physical health, finance, and production. As to trust in public adaptation, farmers who believe that public adaptive measures are well co-ordinated, perceive lower risks to production and psychology. Interestingly, those who believe that the disaster warning system is working well, perceive higher risks to finance, production, and social relationships. Further attention is suggested for the quality, timing, and channels of information about climate change and adaptation.

How do Changes in Hydro-Climate Conditions Alter the Risk of Infection With Fasciolosis?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beltrame, L.; Dunne, T.; Rose, H.; Walker, J.; Morgan, E.; Vickerman, P.; Wagener, T.

2017-12-01

Fasciolosis is a widespread parasitic disease of livestock and is emerging as a major zoonosis. Since the parasite and its intermediate host live and develop in the environment, risk of infection is directly affected by climatic-environmental conditions. Changes in disease prevalence, seasonality and distribution have been reported in recent years and attributed to altered temperature and rainfall patterns, raising concerns about the effects of climate change in the future. Therefore, it is urgent to understand how changes in climate-environmental drivers may alter the dynamics of disease risk in a quantitative way, to guide parasite control strategies and interventions in the coming decades. In a previous work, we developed and tested a novel mechanistic hydro-epidemiological model for Fasciolosis, which explicitly represents the parasite life-cycle in connection with key environmental processes, allowing to capture the impact of previously unseen conditions. In this study, we use the new mechanistic model to assess the sensitivity of infection rates to changes in climate-environmental factors. This is challenging as processes underlying disease transmission are complex and interacting, and may have contrasting effects on the parasite life-cycle stages. To this end, we set up a sensitivity analysis framework to investigate in a structured way which factors play a key role in controlling the magnitude, timing and spread of infection, and how the sensitivity of disease risk varies in time and space. Moreover, we define synthetic scenarios to explore the space of possible variability of the hydro-climate drivers and investigate conditions that lead to critical levels of infection. The study shows how the new model combined with the sensitivity analysis framework can support decision-making, providing useful information for disease management.

Youth Climate Summits: Empowering & Engaging Youth to Lead on Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kretser, J.

2017-12-01

The Wild Center's Youth Climate Summits is a program that engages youth in climate literacy from knowledge and understanding to developing action in their schools and communities. Each Youth Climate Summit is a one to three day event that brings students and teachers together to learn about climate change science, impacts and solutions at a global and local level. Through speakers, workshops and activities, the Summit culminates in a student-driven Climate Action Plan that can be brought back to schools and communities. The summits have been found to be powerful vehicles for inspiration, learning, community engagement and youth leadership development. Climate literacy with a focus on local climate impacts and solutions is a key component of the Youth Climate Summit. The project-based learning surrounding the creation of a unique, student driven, sustainability and Climate Action Plan promotes leadership skills applicable and the tools necessary for a 21st Century workforce. Student driven projects range from school gardens and school energy audits to working with NYS officials to commit to going 100% renewable electricty at the three state-owned downhill ski facilities. The summit model has been scaled and replicated in other communities in New York State, Vermont, Ohio, Michigan and Washington states as well as internationally in Finland, Germany and Sri Lanka.

Climatic, ecological, and socioeconomic factors associated with West Nile virus incidence in Atlanta, Georgia, U.S.A.

Treesearch

Graeme Lockaby; Navideh Noori; Wayde Morse; Wayne Zipperer; Latif Kalin; Robin Governo; Rajesh Sawant; Matthew Ricker

2016-01-01

The integrated effects of the many risk factors associated with West Nile virus (WNV) incidence are complex and notwell understood. We studied an array of risk factors in and around Atlanta, GA, that have been shown to be linked with WNV inother locations. This array was comprehensive and included climate and meteorological metrics, vegetation...

The development and psychometric evaluation of a safety climate measure for primary care.

PubMed

de Wet, C; Spence, W; Mash, R; Johnson, P; Bowie, P

2010-12-01

Building a safety culture is an important part of improving patient care. Measuring perceptions of safety climate among healthcare teams and organisations is a key element of this process. Existing measurement instruments are largely developed for secondary care settings in North America and many lack adequate psychometric testing. Our aim was to develop and test an instrument to measure perceptions of safety climate among primary care teams in National Health Service for Scotland. Questionnaire development was facilitated through a steering group, literature review, semistructured interviews with primary care team members, a modified Delphi and completion of a content validity index by experts. A cross-sectional postal survey utilising the questionnaire was undertaken in a random sample of west of Scotland general practices to facilitate psychometric evaluation. Statistical methods, including exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis, and Cronbach and Raykov reliability coefficients were conducted. Of the 667 primary care team members based in 49 general practices surveyed, 563 returned completed questionnaires (84.4%). Psychometric evaluation resulted in the development of a 30-item questionnaire with five safety climate factors: leadership, teamwork, communication, workload and safety systems. Retained items have strong factor loadings to only one factor. Reliability coefficients was satisfactory (α = 0.94 and ρ = 0.93). This study is the first stage in the development of an appropriately valid and reliable safety climate measure for primary care. Measuring safety climate perceptions has the potential to help primary care organisations and teams focus attention on safety-related issues and target improvement through educational interventions. Further research is required to explore acceptability and feasibility issues for primary care teams and the potential for organisational benchmarking.

Disconnects Between Audiences, Resources, and Initiatives: Key Findings of the Coastal Areas Climate Change Education Partnership

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muller-Karger, F. E.; Ryan, J. G.; Feldman, A.; Gilbes, F.; Trotz, M.; McKayle, C.; Stone, D.; Plank, L.; Meisels, G.; Peterson, M.; Reynolds, C. J.

2012-12-01

The Coastal Areas Climate Change Education (CACCE) Partnership focused on defining a plan for effective education on climate change and its salient issues in coastal communities Florida and the US Caribbean territories. The approach included assessing perceptions and needs of stakeholders, evaluating the nature of available educational and information resources, and establishing a partnership that includes the public and professional organizations most relevant in planning and in addressing the resiliency of coastal communities. Information gathering activities included surveys among K-12 educators and students on climate change perceptions and current classroom activities in both Florida and the Caribbean territories; surveys of professional urban and land-use planners across Florida regarding their understanding of related in their professional practice; and conducting an inventory of relevant educational materials and information resources. Survey results showed a range of misperceptions about climate change, its causes and its likely impacts. At present, students and teachers in high and middle schools show poor understanding of climate science, and minimal time is spent in instruction on climate change in science courses in Florida and Puerto Rico schools. Also, there has to be professional development efforts and access to rich instructional content in a continuum spanning schools and professional communities including planners (which we surveyed). Architects and engineers are communities that also need to be surveyed and included in future efforts. A major obstacle to efforts at providing continuing education for planners and municipal officials is the lack of consensus on and access to regionally-specific scientific data regarding climate impacts and the relevant instructional content. It is difficult for professionals to prepare for climate change if they cannot define impacts in the Florida-Caribbean region and its coastal urban areas. Across over 1000

The Island of Amsterdamøya: A key site for studying past climate in the Arctic Archipelago of Svalbard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bakke, Jostein; Balascio, Nicholas; van der Bilt, Willem G. M.; Bradley, Raymond; D'Andrea, William J.; Gjerde, Marthe; Ólafsdóttir, Sædís; Røthe, Torgeir; De Wet, Greg

2018-03-01

This paper introduces a series of articles assembled in a special issue that explore Holocene climate evolution, as recorded in lakes on the Island of Amsterdamøya on the westernmost fringe of the Arctic Svalbard archipelago. Due to its location near the interface of oceanic and atmospheric systems sourced from Arctic and Atlantic regions, Amsterdamøya is a key site for recording the terrestrial response to marine and atmospheric changes. We employed multi-proxy approaches on lake sediments, integrating physical, biogeochemical, and isotopic analyses to infer past changes in temperature, precipitation, and glacier activity. The results comprise a series of quantitative Holocene-length paleoclimate reconstructions that reveal different aspects of past climate change. Each of the four papers addresses various facets of the Holocene climate history of north-western Svalbard, including a reconstruction of the Annabreen glacier based on the sedimentology of the distal glacier-fed lake Gjøavatnet, a reconstruction of changing hydrologic conditions based on sedimentology and stratigraphy in Lake Hakluytvatnet, reconstruction of summer temperature based on alkenone paleothermometry from lakes Hakluytvatnet and Hajeren, and a hydrogen isotope-based hydrological reconstruction from lake Hakluytvatnet. We also present high-resolution paleomagnetic secular variation data from the same lake, which document important regional magnetic field variations and demonstrate the potential for use in synchronizing Holocene sedimentary records in the Arctic. The paleoclimate picture that emerges is one of early Holocene warmth from ca. 10.5 ka BP interrupted by transient cooling ca. 10-8ka BP, and followed by cooling that mostly manifested as two stepwise events ca. 7 and 4 ka BP. The past 4ka were characterized by dynamic glaciers and summer temperature fluctuations decoupled from the declining summer insolation.

Identification of the atmospheric river drivers key on local flood generating mechanism and its sensitivity under the climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorente-Plazas, Raquel; Mauger, Guillaume; Salathé, Eric; Mitchell, Todd P.

2017-04-01

Flooding is one of the natural hazard that causes the significant economic, ecosystem and human losses every year. Large percentage of floodings in the western of the US caused by heavy precipitation events are associated to atmospheric rivers (ARs). With the warmer climate is expected an increase of saturated water pressure which could increase the intensity and frequency of the ARs. In this work we attend to address two questions: 1) what are the large-scale drivers that promotes differences in ARs promoting heavy precipitation at different locations and 2) how climate change will influence on ARs and extreme precipitation. The methods applied in our analysis consist on a dynamical downscaling using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The target region is the western coastline U.S. on a domain with 12-km grid spacing. Regional climate simulations (RCM) encompass a historical period (1970-2010) and future projections (2020-2060) using NNRP and ECHAM as initial and boundary conditions. Clustering methods are applied to the RCM to identify regions with similar precipitation variability. At each region, the extreme events of precipitation according to 99 percentile are identified and associated to integrated vapor transport (ITV). Results show how heaviest precipitation in each region is associated to different AR patterns. When an AR impacts coastline, the direction and intensity of the IVT determine the areas affected by heavy precipitation. Coastal mountains play a key role intensifying the precipitation in the coastline and avoiding the inland penetration of the IVT. The shape of the atmospheric rivers is related to differences in 500 hPa geopotential between the mean and the extreme precipitation. Areas with heaviest precipitation are located in the interface of Z500 differences.

The influence of soil-site factors on sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.) growth response to climatic change in central Ontario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schutten, K.; Gedalof, Z.

2010-12-01

Over the past several decades, concerns about climatic change and its potential impacts on Canada’s various geographical regions and associated ecological processes have grown steadily, especially among land and resource managers. As these risks transition into tangible outcomes in the field, it will be important for resource managers to understand historical climatic variability and natural ecological trends in order to effectively respond to a changing climate. Sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.) is considered a stable endpoint for mature forests in the northern hardwood community of central Ontario, and it tends to be the dominant species, in a beech-ironwood-yellow birch matrix. In North America, this species is used for both hardwood lumber and for maple sugar (syrup) products; where it dominates, large recreational opportunities also exist. There are many biotic and abiotic factors that play a large role in the growth and productivity of sugar maple stands, such as soil pH, moisture regime, and site slope and aspect. This research undertaking aims to add to the body of literature addressing the following question: how do site factors influence the sensitivity of sugar maple growth to climatic change? The overall objective of the research is to evaluate how biotic and abiotic factors influence the sensitivity of sugar maple annual radial growth to climatic variability. This research will focus on sugar maple growth and productivity in Algonquin Provincial Park, and the impact that climatic variability has had in the past on these stands based on site-specific characteristics. In order to complete this goal, 20 sites were identified in Algonquin Provincial Park based on variability of known soil and site properties. These sites were visited in order to collect biotic and abiotic site data, and to measure annual radial growth increment of trees. Using regional climate records and standard dendrochronological methods, the collected increment growth data will be

Assessment of Climate Change and Vector-borne Diseases in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monaghan, A. J.; Beard, C. B.; Eisen, R. J.; Barker, C. M.; Garofalo, J.; Hahn, M.; Hayden, M.; Ogden, N.; Schramm, P.

2016-12-01

Vector-borne diseases are illnesses that are transmitted by vectors, which include mosquitoes, ticks, and fleas. The seasonality, distribution, and prevalence of vector-borne diseases are influenced significantly by climate factors, primarily high and low temperature extremes and precipitation patterns. In this presentation we summarize key findings from Chapter 5 ("Vector-borne Diseases") of the recently published USGCRP Scientific Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States. Climate change is expected to alter geographic and seasonal distributions of vectors and vector-borne diseases, leading to earlier activity and northward range expansion of ticks capable of carrying the bacteria that cause Lyme disease and other pathogens, and influencing the distribution, abundance and prevalence of infection in mosquitoes that transmit West Nile virus and other pathogens. The emergence or reemergence of vector-borne pathogens is also likely.

Atmospheric Composition Change: Climate-Chemistry Interactions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Isaksen, I.S.A.; Granier, C.; Myhre, G.; Bernsten, T. K.; Dalsoren, S. B.; Gauss, S.; Klimont, Z.; Benestad, R.; Bousquet, P.; Collins, W.;

Climate change and water availability for vulnerable agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dalezios, Nicolas; Tarquis, Ana Maria

2017-04-01

Climatic projections for the Mediterranean basin indicate that the area will suffer a decrease in water resources due to climate change. The key climatic trends identified for the Mediterranean region are continuous temperature increase, further drying with precipitation decrease and the accentuation of climate extremes, such as droughts, heat waves and/or forest fires, which are expected to have a profound effect on agriculture. Indeed, the impact of climate variability on agricultural production is important at local, regional, national, as well as global scales. Agriculture of any kind is strongly influenced by the availability of water. Climate change will modify rainfall, evaporation, runoff, and soil moisture storage patterns. Changes in total seasonal precipitation or in its pattern of variability are both important. Similarly, with higher temperatures, the water-holding capacity of the atmosphere and evaporation into the atmosphere increase, and this favors increased climate variability, with more intense precipitation and more droughts. As a result, crop yields are affected by variations in climatic factors, such as air temperature and precipitation, and the frequency and severity of the above mentioned extreme events. The aim of this work is to briefly present the main effects of climate change and variability on water resources with respect to water availability for vulnerable agriculture, namely in the Mediterranean region. Results of undertaken studies in Greece on precipitation patterns and drought assessment using historical data records are presented. Based on precipitation frequency analysis, evidence of precipitation reductions is shown. Drought is assessed through an agricultural drought index, namely the Vegetation Health Index (VHI), in Thessaly, a drought-prone region in central Greece. The results justify the importance of water availability for vulnerable agriculture and the need for drought monitoring in the Mediterranean basin as part of

Integrating climate forecasts and natural gas supply information into a natural gas purchasing decision

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Changnon, David; Ritsche, Michael; Elyea, Karen; Shelton, Steve; Schramm, Kevin

2000-09-01

This paper illustrates a key lesson related to most uses of long-range climate forecast information, namely that effective weather-related decision-making requires understanding and integration of weather information with other, often complex factors. Northern Illinois University's heating plant manager and staff meteorologist, along with a group of meteorology students, worked together to assess different types of available information that could be used in an autumn natural gas purchasing decision. Weather information assessed included the impact of ENSO events on winters in northern Illinois and the Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) long-range climate outlooks. Non-weather factors, such as the cost and available supplies of natural gas prior to the heating season, contribute to the complexity of the natural gas purchase decision. A decision tree was developed and it incorporated three parts: (a) natural gas supply levels, (b) the CPC long-lead climate outlooks for the region, and (c) an ENSO model developed for DeKalb. The results were used to decide in autumn whether to lock in a price or ride the market each winter. The decision tree was tested for the period 1995-99, and returned a cost-effective decision in three of the four winters.

WRKY transcription factors: key components in abscisic acid signalling.

PubMed

Rushton, Deena L; Tripathi, Prateek; Rabara, Roel C; Lin, Jun; Ringler, Patricia; Boken, Ashley K; Langum, Tanner J; Smidt, Lucas; Boomsma, Darius D; Emme, Nicholas J; Chen, Xianfeng; Finer, John J; Shen, Qingxi J; Rushton, Paul J

2012-01-01

WRKY transcription factors (TFs) are key regulators of many plant processes, including the responses to biotic and abiotic stresses, senescence, seed dormancy and seed germination. For over 15 years, limited evidence has been available suggesting that WRKY TFs may play roles in regulating plant responses to the phytohormone abscisic acid (ABA), notably some WRKY TFs are ABA-inducible repressors of seed germination. However, the roles of WRKY TFs in other aspects of ABA signalling, and the mechanisms involved, have remained unclear. Recent significant progress in ABA research has now placed specific WRKY TFs firmly in ABA-responsive signalling pathways, where they act at multiple levels. In Arabidopsis, WRKY TFs appear to act downstream of at least two ABA receptors: the cytoplasmic PYR/PYL/RCAR-protein phosphatase 2C-ABA complex and the chloroplast envelope-located ABAR-ABA complex. In vivo and in vitro promoter-binding studies show that the target genes for WRKY TFs that are involved in ABA signalling include well-known ABA-responsive genes such as ABF2, ABF4, ABI4, ABI5, MYB2, DREB1a, DREB2a and RAB18. Additional well-characterized stress-inducible genes such as RD29A and COR47 are also found in signalling pathways downstream of WRKY TFs. These new insights also reveal that some WRKY TFs are positive regulators of ABA-mediated stomatal closure and hence drought responses. Conversely, many WRKY TFs are negative regulators of seed germination, and controlling seed germination appears a common function of a subset of WRKY TFs in flowering plants. Taken together, these new data demonstrate that WRKY TFs are key nodes in ABA-responsive signalling networks. © 2011 The Authors. Plant Biotechnology Journal © 2011 Society for Experimental Biology, Association of Applied Biologists and Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Climatic, ecological, and socioeconomic factors associated with West Nile virus incidence in Atlanta, Georgia, U.S.A.

PubMed

Lockaby, Graeme; Noori, Navideh; Morse, Wayde; Zipperer, Wayne; Kalin, Latif; Governo, Robin; Sawant, Rajesh; Ricker, Matthew

2016-12-01

The integrated effects of the many risk factors associated with West Nile virus (WNV) incidence are complex and not well understood. We studied an array of risk factors in and around Atlanta, GA, that have been shown to be linked with WNV in other locations. This array was comprehensive and included climate and meteorological metrics, vegetation characteristics, land use / land cover analyses, and socioeconomic factors. Data on mosquito abundance and WNV mosquito infection rates were obtained for 58 sites and covered 2009-2011, a period following the combined storm water - sewer overflow remediation in that city. Risk factors were compared to mosquito abundance and the WNV vector index (VI) using regression analyses individually and in combination. Lagged climate variables, including soil moisture and temperature, were significantly correlated (positively) with vector index as were forest patch size and percent pine composition of patches (both negatively). Socioeconomic factors that were most highly correlated (positively) with the VI included the proportion of low income households and homes built before 1960 and housing density. The model selected through stepwise regression that related risk factors to the VI included (in the order of decreasing influence) proportion of houses built before 1960, percent of pine in patches, and proportion of low income households. © 2016 The Society for Vector Ecology.

Resolving Orbital and Climate Keys of Earth and Extraterrestrial Environments with Dynamics (ROCKE-3D) 1.0: A General Circulation Model for Simulating the Climates of Rocky Planets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Way, M. J.; Aleinov, I.; Amundsen, David S.; Chandler, M. A.; Clune, T. L.; Del Genio, A.; Fujii, Y.; Kelley, M.; Kiang, N. Y.; Sohl, L.;

Population attributable risk of key modifiable risk factors associated with non-exclusive breastfeeding in Nigeria.

PubMed

Ogbo, Felix Akpojene; Page, Andrew; Idoko, John; Agho, Kingsley E

2018-02-13

Non-exclusive breastfeeding (non-EBF) is a risk factor for many of the 2300 under-five deaths occurring daily in Nigeria - a developing country with approximately 40 million children. This study aimed to quantify and compare the attributable burden of key modifiable risk factors associated with non-EBF in Nigeria to inform strategic policy responses and initiatives. Relative risk and exposure prevalence for selected modifiable risk factors were used to calculate population attributable fractions based on Nigeria Demographic and Health Surveys data for the period (1999-2013). Scenarios based on feasible impact of community-based interventions in reducing exposure prevalence were also considered to calculate comparative potential impact fractions. In Nigeria, an estimated 22.8% (95% Confidence Interval, CI: 9.2-37.0%) of non-EBF was attributable to primary and no maternal education; 24.7% (95% CI: 9.5-39.5%) to middle and poor household wealth, 9.7% (1.7-18.1%) to lower number (1-3) and no antenatal care visits; 18.8% (95% CI: 6.9-30.8%) to home delivery and 16.6% (95% CI: 3.0-31.3%) to delivery assisted by a non-health professional. In combination, more than half of all cases of non-EBF (64.5%; 95% CI: 50.0-76.4%) could be attributed to those modifiable risk factors. Scenarios based on feasible impacts of community-based approaches to improve health service access and human capacity suggest that an avoidable burden of non-EBF practice of approximately 11% (95% CI: -5.4; 24.7) is achievable. Key modifiable risk factors contribute significantly to non-EBF in Nigerian women. Community-based initiatives and appropriate socio-economic government policies that specifically consider those modifiable risk factors could substantially reduce non-EBF practice in Nigeria.

Climate targets and cost-effective climate stabilization pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Held, H.

2015-08-01

Climate economics has developed two main tools to derive an economically adequate response to the climate problem. Cost benefit analysis weighs in any available information on mitigation costs and benefits and thereby derives an "optimal" global mean temperature. Quite the contrary, cost effectiveness analysis allows deriving costs of potential policy targets and the corresponding cost- minimizing investment paths. The article highlights pros and cons of both approaches and then focusses on the implications of a policy that strives at limiting global warming to 2 °C compared to pre-industrial values. The related mitigation costs and changes in the energy sector are summarized according to the IPCC report of 2014. The article then points to conceptual difficulties when internalizing uncertainty in these types of analyses and suggests pragmatic solutions. Key statements on mitigation economics remain valid under uncertainty when being given the adequate interpretation. Furthermore, the expected economic value of perfect climate information is found to be on the order of hundreds of billions of Euro per year if a 2°-policy were requested. Finally, the prospects of climate policy are sketched.

Harmonizing Access to Federal Data - Lessons Learned Through the Climate Data Initiative

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bugbee, K.; Pinheiro Privette, A. C.; Meyer, D. J.; Ramachandran, R.

2016-12-01

The Climate Data Initiative (CDI), launched by the Obama Administration in March of 2014, is an effort to leverage the extensive open Federal data to spur innovation and private-sector entrepreneurship in order to advance awareness of and preparedness for the impacts of climate change (see the White House fact sheet). The project includes an online catalog of climate-related datasets and data products in key areas of climate change risk and vulnerability from across the U.S. federal government through http://Climate.Data.gov. NASA was tasked with the implementation and management of the project and has been working closely with Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) and Data Curators (DCs) from across the Federal Government to identify and catalog federal datasets relevant for assessing climate risks and impacts. These datasets are organized around key themes and are framed by key climate questions. The current themes within CDI include: Arctic, Coastal Flooding, Ecosystem Vulnerability, Energy Infrastructure, Food Resilience, Human Health, Transportation, Tribal Nations and Water. This paper summarizes the main lessons learned from the last 2.5 years of CDI implementation.

Identification of key factors regulating self-renewal and differentiation in EML hematopoietic precursor cells by RNA-sequencing analysis.

PubMed

Zong, Shan; Deng, Shuyun; Chen, Kenian; Wu, Jia Qian

2014-11-11

Hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) are used clinically for transplantation treatment to rebuild a patient's hematopoietic system in many diseases such as leukemia and lymphoma. Elucidating the mechanisms controlling HSCs self-renewal and differentiation is important for application of HSCs for research and clinical uses. However, it is not possible to obtain large quantity of HSCs due to their inability to proliferate in vitro. To overcome this hurdle, we used a mouse bone marrow derived cell line, the EML (Erythroid, Myeloid, and Lymphocytic) cell line, as a model system for this study. RNA-sequencing (RNA-Seq) has been increasingly used to replace microarray for gene expression studies. We report here a detailed method of using RNA-Seq technology to investigate the potential key factors in regulation of EML cell self-renewal and differentiation. The protocol provided in this paper is divided into three parts. The first part explains how to culture EML cells and separate Lin-CD34+ and Lin-CD34- cells. The second part of the protocol offers detailed procedures for total RNA preparation and the subsequent library construction for high-throughput sequencing. The last part describes the method for RNA-Seq data analysis and explains how to use the data to identify differentially expressed transcription factors between Lin-CD34+ and Lin-CD34- cells. The most significantly differentially expressed transcription factors were identified to be the potential key regulators controlling EML cell self-renewal and differentiation. In the discussion section of this paper, we highlight the key steps for successful performance of this experiment. In summary, this paper offers a method of using RNA-Seq technology to identify potential regulators of self-renewal and differentiation in EML cells. The key factors identified are subjected to downstream functional analysis in vitro and in vivo.

Identification of Key Factors Regulating Self-renewal and Differentiation in EML Hematopoietic Precursor Cells by RNA-sequencing Analysis

PubMed Central

Chen, Kenian; Wu, Jia Qian

2014-01-01

Hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) are used clinically for transplantation treatment to rebuild a patient's hematopoietic system in many diseases such as leukemia and lymphoma. Elucidating the mechanisms controlling HSCs self-renewal and differentiation is important for application of HSCs for research and clinical uses. However, it is not possible to obtain large quantity of HSCs due to their inability to proliferate in vitro. To overcome this hurdle, we used a mouse bone marrow derived cell line, the EML (Erythroid, Myeloid, and Lymphocytic) cell line, as a model system for this study. RNA-sequencing (RNA-Seq) has been increasingly used to replace microarray for gene expression studies. We report here a detailed method of using RNA-Seq technology to investigate the potential key factors in regulation of EML cell self-renewal and differentiation. The protocol provided in this paper is divided into three parts. The first part explains how to culture EML cells and separate Lin-CD34+ and Lin-CD34- cells. The second part of the protocol offers detailed procedures for total RNA preparation and the subsequent library construction for high-throughput sequencing. The last part describes the method for RNA-Seq data analysis and explains how to use the data to identify differentially expressed transcription factors between Lin-CD34+ and Lin-CD34- cells. The most significantly differentially expressed transcription factors were identified to be the potential key regulators controlling EML cell self-renewal and differentiation. In the discussion section of this paper, we highlight the key steps for successful performance of this experiment. In summary, this paper offers a method of using RNA-Seq technology to identify potential regulators of self-renewal and differentiation in EML cells. The key factors identified are subjected to downstream functional analysis in vitro and in vivo. PMID:25407807

Wildland fire emissions, carbon, and climate: Emission factors

Treesearch

Shawn Urbanski

2014-01-01

While the vast majority of carbon emitted by wildland fires is released as CO2, CO, and CH4, wildland fire smoke is nonetheless a rich and complex mixture of gases and aerosols. Primary emissions include significant amounts of CH4 and aerosol (organic aerosol and black carbon), which are short-lived climate forcers. In addition to CO2 and short-lived climate forcers,...

Climate and Non-Climate Drivers of Dengue Epidemics in Southern Coastal Ecuador

PubMed Central

Stewart-Ibarra, Anna M.; Lowe, Rachel

2013-01-01

We report a statistical mixed model for assessing the importance of climate and non-climate drivers of interannual variability in dengue fever in southern coastal Ecuador. Local climate data and Pacific sea surface temperatures (Oceanic Niño Index [ONI]) were used to predict dengue standardized morbidity ratios (SMRs; 1995–2010). Unobserved confounding factors were accounted for using non-structured yearly random effects. We found that ONI, rainfall, and minimum temperature were positively associated with dengue, with more cases of dengue during El Niño events. We assessed the influence of non-climatic factors on dengue SMR using a subset of data (2001–2010) and found that the percent of households with Aedes aegypti immatures was also a significant predictor. Our results indicate that monitoring the climate and non-climate drivers identified in this study could provide some predictive lead for forecasting dengue epidemics, showing the potential to develop a dengue early-warning system in this region. PMID:23478584

On the Security of a Two-Factor Authentication and Key Agreement Scheme for Telecare Medicine Information Systems.

PubMed

Arshad, Hamed; Teymoori, Vahid; Nikooghadam, Morteza; Abbassi, Hassan

2015-08-01

Telecare medicine information systems (TMISs) aim to deliver appropriate healthcare services in an efficient and secure manner to patients. A secure mechanism for authentication and key agreement is required to provide proper security in these systems. Recently, Bin Muhaya demonstrated some security weaknesses of Zhu's authentication and key agreement scheme and proposed a security enhanced authentication and key agreement scheme for TMISs. However, we show that Bin Muhaya's scheme is vulnerable to off-line password guessing attacks and does not provide perfect forward secrecy. Furthermore, in order to overcome the mentioned weaknesses, we propose a new two-factor anonymous authentication and key agreement scheme using the elliptic curve cryptosystem. Security and performance analyses demonstrate that the proposed scheme not only overcomes the weaknesses of Bin Muhaya's scheme, but also is about 2.73 times faster than Bin Muhaya's scheme.

Climate change and drought risk management in Mediterranean watersheds (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulwarty, R. S.; Maia, R.; Garrido, A.; Hoerling, M. P.

2013-12-01

As a result of major droughts and floods over the past two decades, the European Union has expressed major concerns regarding climate change impacts on the resilience of ecosystems and water resources. The EU Water Framework Directive established a framework for action in the field of water olicy committing European Union member states to achieve develop integrated watershed management plans and improve the quality of water bodies by 2015. Key to meeting these goals are understanding and planning for changes in extreme events, groundwater and surface water changes, and the level of integrated water resources management infrastructure. In the northern European basins, water shortages are mostly offset by irrigation systems. This is not the case for southern basins in the Mediterranean (e.g. Guadiana, Ebro, Po), where water supply systems are already stressed, and where socioeconomic losses due to droughts are more significant. Precipitation variability in the Mediterranean basin is characterized by substantial interdecadal variations and long-term trends. This paper presents an assessment of climate and the socioeconomic impacts of drought in the Mediterranean basin including the factors that determine the vulnerability of different sectors to the risks posed by climate change. The studies are based on two projects in which the authors are involved: the European Commission funded PREEMPT project 'Policy-relevant assessment of the socio-economic effects of droughts and floods' and 'Development of methodologies for integration of climate change on water resources managements for the Guadiana Basin', that analyze drought events, economic losses, risk management efforts and the prospect for adaptation. Studies show that the land area surrounding the Mediterranean Sea has experienced 10 of the 12 driest winters since 1902 in just the last 20 years. A change in wintertime Mediterranean precipitation toward drier conditions has likely occurred over 1902-2010. Anthropogenic

Scientific Uncertainties in Climate Change Detection and Attribution Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santer, B. D.

2017-12-01

It has been claimed that the treatment and discussion of key uncertainties in climate science is "confined to hushed sidebar conversations at scientific conferences". This claim is demonstrably incorrect. Climate change detection and attribution studies routinely consider key uncertainties in observational climate data, as well as uncertainties in model-based estimates of natural variability and the "fingerprints" in response to different external forcings. The goal is to determine whether such uncertainties preclude robust identification of a human-caused climate change fingerprint. It is also routine to investigate the impact of applying different fingerprint identification strategies, and to assess how detection and attribution results are impacted by differences in the ability of current models to capture important aspects of present-day climate. The exploration of the uncertainties mentioned above will be illustrated using examples from detection and attribution studies with atmospheric temperature and moisture.

Monitoring Users' Satisfactions of the NOAA NWS Climate Products and Services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horsfall, F. M.; Timofeyeva, M. M.; Dixon, S.; Meyers, J. C.

2011-12-01

inconsistent suite of characteristics measured and the different number of respondent collected for each survey. Regardless of these two factors contributing to uncertainty of the results, CSD observed general improvement in customer satisfaction. Although, all NWS climate products have competitive scores, the leading ACSIs are for NWS Drought products and climate surface observation products. Overall, the survey results identify requirements for improving existing NWS climate services and introducing new ones. To date, the 2011 survey results have not been evaluated, but will be included in the conference presentation. A key point out of the initial 2011 survey results was that the climate section captured the greatest interest (as measured by number of respondents) of the customers of NWS products and services.

Climate Change Indicators for the United States

EPA Science Inventory

EPA’s publishes the Climate Change Indicators for the United States report to communicate information about the science and impacts of climate change, track trends in environmental quality, and inform de¬cision-making. This report presents a set of key indicators to help readers ...

[Family Climate, Parental Partner Relationships and Symptom Formation in Children - Mentalisation- Based Family Therapy for Childhood Headache].

PubMed

Hantel-Quitmann, Wolfgang; Weidtmann, Katja

2016-01-01

The emotional family climate is considered both an effective risk and protective factor for child development. Factors such as negative experiences parents made during their childhood or adolescence, which can reoccur as intergenerational transmission, a low partnership quality and a high level of conflict seem to be particularly relevant for the quality of the emotional family climate. Consequently, the relationship between partners, as the core relation within families, is particularly important for the family climate and subsequently for the development of the child. For this reason, problems in parent relationships should receive special attention in family therapeutic interventions. Mentalisation-based family therapy (MBF-T) offers promising approaches in this context. The key principles of mentalisation are introduced and the links between family and mentalisation are presented, followed by information on the history, objectives and the procedures of MBF-T. A case study of a family therapy, in which a child suffers from chronic headache, illustrates the connection and interrelation between family climate, family conflicts and the parental relationship, and it will further show the importance of mentalisation-based elements for therapeutic treatments.

Climate Change Impact Uncertainties for Maize in Panama: Farm Information, Climate Projections, and Yield Sensitivities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruane, Alex C.; Cecil, L. Dewayne; Horton, Radley M.; Gordon, Roman; McCollum, Raymond (Brown, Douglas); Brown, Douglas; Killough, Brian; Goldberg, Richard; Greeley, Adam P.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia

2011-01-01

We present results from a pilot project to characterize and bound multi-disciplinary uncertainties around the assessment of maize (Zea mays) production impacts using the CERES-Maize crop model in a climate-sensitive region with a variety of farming systems (Panama). Segunda coa (autumn) maize yield in Panama currently suffers occasionally from high water stress at the end of the growing season, however under future climate conditions warmer temperatures accelerate crop maturation and elevated CO (sub 2) concentrations improve water retention. This combination reduces end-of-season water stresses and eventually leads to small mean yield gains according to median projections, although accelerated maturation reduces yields in seasons with low water stresses. Calibrations of cultivar traits, soil profile, and fertilizer amounts are most important for representing baseline yields, however sensitivity to all management factors is reduced in an assessment of future yield changes (most dramatically for fertilizers), suggesting that yield changes may be more generalizable than absolute yields. Uncertainty around General Circulation Model (GCM)s' projected changes in rainfall gain in importance throughout the century, with yield changes strongly correlated with growing season rainfall totals. Climate changes are expected to be obscured by the large inter-annual variations in Panamanian climate that will continue to be the dominant influence on seasonal maize yield into the coming decades. The relatively high (A2) and low (B1) emissions scenarios show little difference in their impact on future maize yields until the end of the century. Uncertainties related to the sensitivity of CERES-Maize to carbon dioxide concentrations have a substantial influence on projected changes, and remain a significant obstacle to climate change impacts assessment. Finally, an investigation into the potential of simple statistical yield emulators based upon key climate variables characterizes the

Effective Climate Refugia for Cold-water Fishes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ebersole, J. L.; Morelli, T. L.; Torgersen, C.; Isaak, D.; Keenan, D.; Labiosa, R.; Fullerton, A.; Massie, J.

2015-12-01

Climate change threatens to create fundamental shifts in in the distributions and abundances of endothermic organisms such as cold-water salmon and trout species (salmonids). Recently published projected declines in mid-latitude salmonid distributions under future climates range from modest to severe, depending on modeling approaches, assumptions, and spatial context of analyses. Given these projected losses, increased emphasis on management for ecosystem resilience to help buffer cold-water fish populations and their habitats against climate change is emerging. Using terms such as "climate-proofing", "climate-ready", and "climate refugia", such efforts stake a claim for an adaptive, anticipatory planning response to the climate change threat. To be effective, such approaches will need to address critical uncertainties in both the physical basis for projected landscape changes in water temperature and streamflow, as well as the biological responses of organisms. Recent efforts define future potential climate refugia based on projected streamflows, air temperatures, and associated water temperature changes. These efforts reflect the relatively strong conceptual foundation for linkages between regional climate change and local hydrological responses and thermal dynamics. Yet important questions remain. Drawing on case studies throughout the Pacific Northwest, we illustrate some key uncertainties in the responses of salmonids and their habitats to altered hydro-climatic regimes currently not well addressed by physical or ecological models. Key uncertainties include biotic interactions, organismal adaptive capacity, local climate decoupling due to groundwater-surface water interactions, the influence of human engineering responses, and synergies between climatic and other stressors. These uncertainties need not delay anticipatory planning, but rather highlight the need for identification and communication of actions with high probabilities of success, and targeted

Seroprevalence and risk factor analysis of human leptospirosis in distinct climatic regions of Pakistan.

PubMed

Sohail, Muhammad Luqman; Khan, Muhammad Sarwar; Ijaz, Muhammad; Naseer, Omer; Fatima, Zahida; Ahmad, Abdullah Saghir; Ahmad, Waqas

2018-05-01

Leptospirosis is a worldwide emerging infectious disease of zoonotic importance and large epidemics and epizootics have been reported all over the globe. A cross survey study was conducted to estimate seroprevalence of human leptospirosis in climatically distinct regions of Pakistan and to identify the risk factors associated with the disease. Blood samples from 360 humans were collected through convenient sampling, 120 from each of three study areas. Serological testing was performed using ELISA kit as per manufacturer's recommendations. The results showed an overall prevalence of 40.83% (95% CI; 35.71-46.11). Statistical analysis showed significant (P < .05) differences in leptospiral seroprevalence in three different geographic locations, with highest in humid sub-tropical climatic region (50.83%; 95% CI; 41.55-60.07), followed by semi-arid region (44.16%; 95% CI; 35.11-53.52) and lowest in hot and dry region (27.50%; 95% CI; 19.75-36.40). After multivariate analysis age, gender, exposure to flooding water, source of water usage, disinfection schedule of surroundings and history of cut and wound were found significantly associated with the seropositivity of Leptospira. The present study, first to uncover seroprevalence of human Leptospira in different climatic regions of Pakistan, alarms about effect of climate on prevalence of Leptospira in the region. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An analytical approach to separate climate and human contributions to basin streamflow variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Changbin; Wang, Liuming; Wanrui, Wang; Qi, Jiaguo; Linshan, Yang; Zhang, Yuan; Lei, Wu; Cui, Xia; Wang, Peng

2018-04-01

Climate variability and anthropogenic regulations are two interwoven factors in the ecohydrologic system across large basins. Understanding the roles that these two factors play under various hydrologic conditions is of great significance for basin hydrology and sustainable water utilization. In this study, we present an analytical approach based on coupling water balance method and Budyko hypothesis to derive effectiveness coefficients (ECs) of climate change, as a way to disentangle contributions of it and human activities to the variability of river discharges under different hydro-transitional situations. The climate dominated streamflow change (ΔQc) by EC approach was compared with those deduced by the elasticity method and sensitivity index. The results suggest that the EC approach is valid and applicable for hydrologic study at large basin scale. Analyses of various scenarios revealed that contributions of climate change and human activities to river discharge variation differed among the regions of the study area. Over the past several decades, climate change dominated hydro-transitions from dry to wet, while human activities played key roles in the reduction of streamflow during wet to dry periods. Remarkable decline of discharge in upstream was mainly due to human interventions, although climate contributed more to runoff increasing during dry periods in the semi-arid downstream. Induced effectiveness on streamflow changes indicated a contribution ratio of 49% for climate and 51% for human activities at the basin scale from 1956 to 2015. The mathematic derivation based simple approach, together with the case example of temporal segmentation and spatial zoning, could help people understand variation of river discharge with more details at a large basin scale under the background of climate change and human regulations.

Socio-economic and Climate Factors Associated with Dengue Fever Spatial Heterogeneity: A Worked Example in New Caledonia.

PubMed

Teurlai, Magali; Menkès, Christophe Eugène; Cavarero, Virgil; Degallier, Nicolas; Descloux, Elodie; Grangeon, Jean-Paul; Guillaumot, Laurent; Libourel, Thérèse; Lucio, Paulo Sergio; Mathieu-Daudé, Françoise; Mangeas, Morgan

2015-12-01

Understanding the factors underlying the spatio-temporal distribution of infectious diseases provides useful information regarding their prevention and control. Dengue fever spatio-temporal patterns result from complex interactions between the virus, the host, and the vector. These interactions can be influenced by environmental conditions. Our objectives were to analyse dengue fever spatial distribution over New Caledonia during epidemic years, to identify some of the main underlying factors, and to predict the spatial evolution of dengue fever under changing climatic conditions, at the 2100 horizon. We used principal component analysis and support vector machines to analyse and model the influence of climate and socio-economic variables on the mean spatial distribution of 24,272 dengue cases reported from 1995 to 2012 in thirty-three communes of New Caledonia. We then modelled and estimated the future evolution of dengue incidence rates using a regional downscaling of future climate projections. The spatial distribution of dengue fever cases is highly heterogeneous. The variables most associated with this observed heterogeneity are the mean temperature, the mean number of people per premise, and the mean percentage of unemployed people, a variable highly correlated with people's way of life. Rainfall does not seem to play an important role in the spatial distribution of dengue cases during epidemics. By the end of the 21st century, if temperature increases by approximately 3 °C, mean incidence rates during epidemics could double. In New Caledonia, a subtropical insular environment, both temperature and socio-economic conditions are influencing the spatial spread of dengue fever. Extension of this study to other countries worldwide should improve the knowledge about climate influence on dengue burden and about the complex interplay between different factors. This study presents a methodology that can be used as a step by step guide to model dengue spatial

Socio-economic and Climate Factors Associated with Dengue Fever Spatial Heterogeneity: A Worked Example in New Caledonia

PubMed Central

Teurlai, Magali; Menkès, Christophe Eugène; Cavarero, Virgil; Degallier, Nicolas; Descloux, Elodie; Grangeon, Jean-Paul; Guillaumot, Laurent; Libourel, Thérèse; Lucio, Paulo Sergio; Mathieu-Daudé, Françoise; Mangeas, Morgan

2015-01-01

Background/Objectives Understanding the factors underlying the spatio-temporal distribution of infectious diseases provides useful information regarding their prevention and control. Dengue fever spatio-temporal patterns result from complex interactions between the virus, the host, and the vector. These interactions can be influenced by environmental conditions. Our objectives were to analyse dengue fever spatial distribution over New Caledonia during epidemic years, to identify some of the main underlying factors, and to predict the spatial evolution of dengue fever under changing climatic conditions, at the 2100 horizon. Methods We used principal component analysis and support vector machines to analyse and model the influence of climate and socio-economic variables on the mean spatial distribution of 24,272 dengue cases reported from 1995 to 2012 in thirty-three communes of New Caledonia. We then modelled and estimated the future evolution of dengue incidence rates using a regional downscaling of future climate projections. Results The spatial distribution of dengue fever cases is highly heterogeneous. The variables most associated with this observed heterogeneity are the mean temperature, the mean number of people per premise, and the mean percentage of unemployed people, a variable highly correlated with people's way of life. Rainfall does not seem to play an important role in the spatial distribution of dengue cases during epidemics. By the end of the 21st century, if temperature increases by approximately 3°C, mean incidence rates during epidemics could double. Conclusion In New Caledonia, a subtropical insular environment, both temperature and socio-economic conditions are influencing the spatial spread of dengue fever. Extension of this study to other countries worldwide should improve the knowledge about climate influence on dengue burden and about the complex interplay between different factors. This study presents a methodology that can be used as a

[Factors related to nurses' patient identification behavior and the moderating effect of person-organization value congruence climate within nursing units].

PubMed

Kim, Young Mee; Kang, Seung Wan; Kim, Se Young

2014-04-01

This research was an empirical study designed to identify precursors and interaction effects related to nurses' patient identification behavior. A multilevel analysis methodology was used. A self-report survey was administered to registered nurses (RNs) of a university hospital in South Korea. Of the questionnaires, 1114 were analyzed. The individual-level factors that had a significantly positive association with patient identification behavior were person-organization value congruence, organizational commitment, occupational commitment, tenure at the hospital, and tenure at the unit. Significantly negative group-level precursors of patient identification behavior were burnout climate and the number of RNs. Two interaction effects of the person-organization value congruence climate were identified. The first was a group-level moderating effect in which the negative relationship between the number of RNs and patient identification behavior was weaker when the nursing unit's value congruence climate was high. The second was a cross-level moderating effect in which the positive relationship between tenure at the unit and patient identification behavior was weaker when value congruence climate was high. This study simultaneously tested both individual-level and group-level factors that potentially influence patient identification behavior and identified the moderating role of person-organization value congruence climate. Implications of these results are discussed.

Advancing a Model-Validated Statistical Method for Decomposing the Key Oceanic Drivers of Regional Climate: Focus on Northern and Tropical African Climate Variability in the Community Earth System Model (CESM)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Fuyao; Yu, Yan; Notaro, Michael

This study advances the practicality and stability of the traditional multivariate statistical method, generalized equilibrium feedback assessment (GEFA), for decomposing the key oceanic drivers of regional atmospheric variability, especially when available data records are short. An advanced stepwise GEFA methodology is introduced, in which unimportant forcings within the forcing matrix are eliminated through stepwise selection. Method validation of stepwise GEFA is performed using the CESM, with a focused application to northern and tropical Africa (NTA). First, a statistical assessment of the atmospheric response to each primary oceanic forcing is carried out by applying stepwise GEFA to a fully coupled controlmore » run. Then, a dynamical assessment of the atmospheric response to individual oceanic forcings is performed through ensemble experiments by imposing sea surface temperature anomalies over focal ocean basins. Finally, to quantify the reliability of stepwise GEFA, the statistical assessment is evaluated against the dynamical assessment in terms of four metrics: the percentage of grid cells with consistent response sign, the spatial correlation of atmospheric response patterns, the area-averaged seasonal cycle of response magnitude, and consistency in associated mechanisms between assessments. In CESM, tropical modes, namely El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the tropical Indian Ocean Basin, tropical Indian Ocean dipole, and tropical Atlantic Niño modes, are the dominant oceanic controls of NTA climate. In complementary studies, stepwise GEFA is validated in terms of isolating terrestrial forcings on the atmosphere, and observed oceanic and terrestrial drivers of NTA climate are extracted to establish an observational benchmark for subsequent coupled model evaluation and development of process-based weights for regional climate projections.« less

Advancing a Model-Validated Statistical Method for Decomposing the Key Oceanic Drivers of Regional Climate: Focus on Northern and Tropical African Climate Variability in the Community Earth System Model (CESM)