Atlantic-induced pan-tropical climate change over the past three decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xichen; Xie, Shang-Ping; Gille, Sarah T.; Yoo, Changhyun

2016-03-01

During the past three decades, tropical sea surface temperature (SST) has shown dipole-like trends, with warming over the tropical Atlantic and Indo-western Pacific but cooling over the eastern Pacific. Competing hypotheses relate this cooling, identified as a driver of the global warming hiatus, to the warming trends in either the Atlantic or Indian Ocean. However, the mechanisms, the relative importance and the interactions between these teleconnections remain unclear. Using a state-of-the-art climate model, we show that the Atlantic plays a key role in initiating the tropical-wide teleconnection, and the Atlantic-induced anomalies contribute ~55-75% of the tropical SST and circulation changes during the satellite era. The Atlantic warming drives easterly wind anomalies over the Indo-western Pacific as Kelvin waves and westerly anomalies over the eastern Pacific as Rossby waves. The wind changes induce an Indo-western Pacific warming through the wind-evaporation-SST effect, and this warming intensifies the La Niña-type response in the tropical Pacific by enhancing the easterly trade winds and through the Bjerknes ocean dynamical processes. The teleconnection develops into a tropical-wide SST dipole pattern. This mechanism, supported by observations and a hierarchy of climate models, reveals that the tropical ocean basins are more tightly connected than previously thought.

Four Decades of Change in Geographical Education in Finland

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kaivola, Taina; Rikkinen, Hannele

2007-01-01

Geography teaching has been under constant change over the last decades. Innovations from research in geography and higher education have diffused in school practices in various ways. International trends have been applied to national contexts in co-operation among academics, administrators and school teachers depending on policies and educational…

Decadal changes in tundra land cover on Yamal Peninsula, Northwest Siberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forbes, B. C.; Kumpula, T.; Macias-Fauria, M.

2017-12-01

The Yamal-Nenets Okrug in Russia has experienced significant changes in land use and climate in recent decades. Average year-round air temperatures have increased ca. 2°C since the 1970's, with much - but not all - of the warming taking place in winter. In association with ongoing summer warming, the annual growth of erect deciduous shrubs has been accelerating while growing season seasonality has diminished, characterized by shifts in the spatial patterns of key phenological parameters. We prepared LANDSAT-derived land cover classifications for 1988 and 2014 using change detection analysis, supported by extensive ground truthing bolstered with data from Very High-Resolution (VHR) imagery (e.g. Quickbird-2, Worldview-2/3). Research was conducted within summer reindeer pastures utilized by the Yarsalinksi sovhoz, whose animals are collectively owned, as well as many privately-owned herds. The area represents bioclimatic Subzone D of the Circumpolar Arctic Vegetation Map and covers about 8500 km2. This is a key subzone for several reasons: (1) it includes Bovanenkovo, the first and largest gas deposit on Yamal to be developed; (2) it is a zone of extremely active periglacial processes (e.g. active layer detachment slides, lake drainage and recent methane-mediated craters); and (3) it is characterized by steadily increasing growth of tall willow shrubs (Salix spp.), which comprise an important source of fodder by reindeer migrating through the area in summer. These results are unique as our dataset: (1) covers sizable inland regions lying entirely within the Russian tundra zone; (2) derives from extensive ground truthing; and (3) treats all plant taxonomic groups (vascular, bryophytes, lichens) at the plot scale. Here we present the first such classifications, based on LANDSAT images from 1988 and 2014. We identify 16 classes ranging from bare ground and drained lakes, anthropogenic disturbances, through several wetland types, to various dwarf and erect tundra shrub

Decadal-timescale changes of the Atlantic overturning circulation and climate in a coupled climate model with a hybrid-coordinate ocean component

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Persechino, A.; Marsh, R.; Sinha, B.; Megann, A. P.; Blaker, A. T.; New, A. L.

2012-08-01

A wide range of statistical tools is used to investigate the decadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and associated key variables in a climate model (CHIME, Coupled Hadley-Isopycnic Model Experiment), which features a novel ocean component. CHIME is as similar as possible to the 3rd Hadley Centre Coupled Model (HadCM3) with the important exception that its ocean component is based on a hybrid vertical coordinate. Power spectral analysis reveals enhanced AMOC variability for periods in the range 15-30 years. Strong AMOC conditions are associated with: (1) a Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomaly pattern reminiscent of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) response, but associated with variations in a northern tropical-subtropical gradient; (2) a Surface Air Temperature anomaly pattern closely linked to SST; (3) a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like pattern; (4) a northward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The primary mode of AMOC variability is associated with decadal changes in the Labrador Sea and the Greenland Iceland Norwegian (GIN) Seas, in both cases linked to the tropical activity about 15 years earlier. These decadal changes are controlled by the low-frequency NAO that may be associated with a rapid atmospheric teleconnection from the tropics to the extratropics. Poleward advection of salinity anomalies in the mixed layer also leads to AMOC changes that are linked to processes in the Labrador Sea. A secondary mode of AMOC variability is associated with interannual changes in the Labrador and GIN Seas, through the impact of the NAO on local surface density.

Seismic rate changes associated with seasonal, annual, and decadal changes in the cryosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sauber, J. M.; Luthcke, S. B.; Hall, D. K.

2012-12-01

Near the Bering Glacier Global Fiducial Program (GFP) in southern Alaska large cryospheric fluctuations occur in a region of upper crustal faulting and folding associated with collision and accretion of the Yakutat terrane. In this study we report constraints on seasonal, annual and decadal cryospheric changes estimated over the last decade from field, aircraft and satellite measurements and we evaluate the influence of cryospheric changes on the background seismic rate. Multi-year images from the Bering Glacier GFP are available since mid-2003 to constrain changes in extent of the Bering Glacier and to discern feature changes in the glacial surface. Starting around the same time, satellite gravimetric measurements from the Gravity Recovery and Climate experiment (GRACE) commenced. Large spatial-scale mass change calculated from the GRACE mascon solution of Luthcke et al. [2012] indicate a general trend of annual ice mass loss for southern Alaska but with large, variable seasonal mass fluctuations. Since 2007 the station position of a continuous GPS site near Cape Yakataga (Alaska EarthScope PBO site, AB35) has been available as well. In addition to changes in the geodetic position due to tectonic motion, this GPS station shows large seasonal excursions in the detrended vertical and horizontal position components consistent with snow loading in the fall and winter and melt onset/mass decrease in the spring/summer. To better understand the timing of processes responsible for the onset of cryospheric mass loss documented in the GRACE data, we examined changes in the snow cover extent and the onset of melt in the spring. We calculated the elastic displacements of the solid Earth and theoretical earthquake failure criteria associated with these annual and seasonal ice and snow changes. Additionally, we compared the seismic rate (M>1.8) from a reference background time period against other time periods with variable ice or tectonic change characteristics to test the

Decadal Changes in Global Ocean Annual Primary Production

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gregg, Watson; Conkright, Margarita E.; Behrenfeld, Michael J.; Ginoux, Paul; Casey, Nancy W.; Koblinsky, Chester J. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor (SeaWiFS) has produced the first multi-year time series of global ocean chlorophyll observations since the demise of the Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS) in 1986. Global observations from 1997-present from SeaWiFS combined with observations from 1979-1986 from the CZCS should in principle provide an opportunity to observe decadal changes in global ocean annual primary production, since chlorophyll is the primary driver for estimates of primary production. However, incompatibilities between algorithms have so far precluded quantitative analysis. We have developed and applied compatible processing methods for the CZCS, using modern advances in atmospheric correction and consistent bio-optical algorithms to advance the CZCS archive to comparable quality with SeaWiFS. We applied blending methodologies, where in situ data observations are incorporated into the CZCS and SeaWiFS data records, to provide improvement of the residuals. These re-analyzed, blended data records provide maximum compatibility and permit, for the first time, a quantitative analysis of the changes in global ocean primary production in the early-to-mid 1980's and the present, using synoptic satellite observations. An intercomparison of the global and regional primary production from these blended satellite observations is important to understand global climate change and the effects on ocean biota. Photosynthesis by chlorophyll-containing phytoplankton is responsible for biotic uptake of carbon in the oceans and potentially ultimately from the atmosphere. Global ocean annual primary decreased from the CZCS record to SeaWiFS, by nearly 6% from the early 1980s to the present. Annual primary production in the high latitudes was responsible for most of the decadal change. Conversely, primary production in the low latitudes generally increased, with the exception of the tropical Pacific. The differences and similarities of the two data records provide evidence

Demographic Changes and Literacy Development in a Decade. Working Paper Series.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reder, Stephen; Edmonston, Barry

Anticipated demographic changes in the United States adult population in the decade between the National Adult Literacy Survey (NALS) of 1992 and the National Assessment of Adult Literacy (NAAL), which is scheduled for 2002, were reviewed. Next, the implications of those changes for the NALS and NAAL were analyzed. The analysis focused on births,…

Three decades of Martian surface changes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geissler, P.E.

2005-01-01

The surface of Mars has changed dramatically during the three decades spanned by spacecraft exploration. Comparisons of Mars Global Surveyor images with Viking and Mariner 9 pictures suggest that more than one third of Mars' surface area has brightened or darkened by at least 10%. Such albedo changes could produce significant effects on solar heating and the global circulation of winds across the planet. All of the major changes took place in areas of moderate to high thermal inertia and rock abundance, consistent with burial of rocky surfaces by thin dust layers deposited during dust storms and subsequent exposure of the rocky surfaces by aeolian erosion. Several distinct mechanisms contribute to aeolian erosion on Mars. Prevailing winds dominate erosion at low latitudes, producing diffuse albedo boundaries and elongated wind streaks generally oriented in the direction of southern summer winds. Dust devils darken the mid to high latitudes from 45 to 70 degrees during the summer seasons, forming irregular albedo patterns consisting of dark linear tracks. Dust storms produce regional albedo variations with distinct but irregular margins. Dark sand duties in southern high latitudes appear to be associated with regional darkening that displays diffuse albedo boundaries. No surface changes were observed to repeat regularly on an annual basis, but many of the changes took place in areas that alternate episodically between high- and low-albedo states as thin mantles of dust are deposited and later stripped off. Hence the face of Mars remains recognizable after a century of telescopic observations, in spite of the enormous extent of alteration that has taken place during the era of spacecraft exploration.

Decadal-scale changes of nitrate in ground water of the United States, 1988-2004

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rupert, Michael G.

2008-01-01

This study evaluated decadal-scale changes of nitrate concentrations in groundwater samples collected by the USGS National Water-Quality Assessment Program from 495 wells in 24 well networks across the USA in predominantly agricultural areas. Each well network was sampled once during 1988-1995 and resampled once during 2000-2004. Statistical tests of decadal-scale changes of nitrate concentrations in water from all 495 wells combined indicate there is a significant increase in nitrate concentrations in the data set as a whole. Eight out of the 24 well networks, or about 33%, had significant changes of nitrate concentrations. Of the eight well networks with significant decadal-scale changes of nitrate, all except one, the Willamette Valley of Oregon, had increasing nitrate concentrations. Median nitrate concentrations of three of those eight well networks increased above the USEPA maximum contaminant level of 10 mg L-1. Nitrate in water from wells with reduced conditions had significantly smaller decadal-scale changes in nitrate concentrations than oxidized and mixed waters. A subset of wells had data on ground water recharge date; nitrate concentrations increased in response to the increase of N fertilizer use since about 1950. Determining ground water recharge dates is an important component of a ground water trends investigation because recharge dates provide a link between changes in ground water quality and changes in land-use practices. Copyright ?? 2008 by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America. All rights reserved.

Collaborative Proposal: Improving Decadal Prediction of Arctic Climate Variability and Change Using a Regional Arctic System Model (RASM)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Maslowski, Wieslaw

This project aims to develop, apply and evaluate a regional Arctic System model (RASM) for enhanced decadal predictions. Its overarching goal is to advance understanding of the past and present states of arctic climate and to facilitate improvements in seasonal to decadal predictions. In particular, it will focus on variability and long-term change of energy and freshwater flows through the arctic climate system. The project will also address modes of natural climate variability as well as extreme and rapid climate change in a region of the Earth that is: (i) a key indicator of the state of global climate throughmore » polar amplification and (ii) which is undergoing environmental transitions not seen in instrumental records. RASM will readily allow the addition of other earth system components, such as ecosystem or biochemistry models, thus allowing it to facilitate studies of climate impacts (e.g., droughts and fires) and of ecosystem adaptations to these impacts. As such, RASM is expected to become a foundation for more complete Arctic System models and part of a model hierarchy important for improving climate modeling and predictions.« less

Seismic Rate Changes Associated with Seasonal, Annual, and Decadal Changes in the Cryosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sauber-Rosenberg, Jeanne

2012-01-01

Near the Bering Glacier Global Fiducial site in southern Alaska large cryospheric fluctuations occur in a region of upper crustal faulting and folding associated with collision and accretion of the Yakutat terrane. In this study we report constraints on seasonal, annual and decadal cryospheric changes estimated over the last decade from field, aircraft and satellite measurements, and we evaluate the influence of cryospheric changes on the background seismic rate. Multi-year images from the Bering Glacier global fiducial site are available since mid-2003 to constrain changes in extent of the Bering Glacier and to discern feature changes in the glacial surface. Starting around the same time, satellite gravimetric measurements from the Gravity Recovery and Climate experiment (GRACE) commenced. Large spatial-scale mass change calculated from the GRACE 1deg x 1deg mascon solution of Luthcke et al. [2012] indicate a general trend of annual ice mass loss for southern Alaska but with large, variable seasonal mass fluctuations. Since 2007, the station position of a continuous GPS site near Cape Yakataga (Alaska EarthScope PBO site, AB35) has been available as well. In addition to changes in the geodetic position due to tectonic motion, this GPS station shows large seasonal excursions in the detrended vertical and horizontal position components consistent with snow loading in the fall and winter and melt onset/mass decrease in the spring/summer. To better understand the timing of processes responsible for the onset of cryospheric mass loss documented in the GRACE data, we examined changes in the snow cover extent and the onset of melt in the spring. We calculated the surface displacements of the solid Earth and theoretical earthquake failure criteria associated with these annual and seasonal ice and snow changes using layered elastic half-space. Additionally, we compared the seismic rate (M>1.8) from a reference background time period against other time periods with variable

Changes in breeding phenology of eastern Ontario frogs over four decades.

PubMed

Klaus, Samantha P; Lougheed, Stephen C

2013-04-01

Global climate change has been implicated in phenological shifts for a variety of taxa. Amphibian species in particular are sensitive to changes in their environment due to their biphasic life history and restricted reproductive requirements. Previous research has shown that not all temperate amphibian species respond similarly to the same suite of climatic or environmental cues, nor are individual species necessarily uniform in their responses across their range. We examined both the timing of spring emergence and calling phenology of eight anuran species in southeastern Ontario, Canada, using an approximately 40-year dataset of historical records of amphibian activity. Rana pipiens was the only species out of eight considered to emerge significantly earlier, by an estimated 22 days over four decades. Both R. pipiens and Bufo americanus have advanced initiation of calling over a four-decade span significantly earlier by an estimated 37.2 and 19.2 days, respectively. Rana sylvatica showed a trend toward earlier emergence by 19 days, whereas we did not detect changes in emergence phenology for the remaining five species. This significant shift in breeding behavior for two species correlates to significant regional increases in spring temperatures of an estimated 2.7-2.8°C overall over four decades. Our study suggests that local temperature increases have affected the timing of emergence and the onset of calling activity in some Ontario anuran species. Global decline or range shifts ultimately may be related to changes in reproductive behavior and timing mediated by shifting climate.

34 CFR 75.517 - Changes in key staff members.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 34 Education 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Changes in key staff members. 75.517 Section 75.517... by a Grantee? Project Staff § 75.517 Changes in key staff members. A grantee shall comply with 34 CFR 74.25(c)(2) concerning replacement or lesser involvement of any key project staff, whether or not the...

34 CFR 75.517 - Changes in key staff members.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 34 Education 1 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Changes in key staff members. 75.517 Section 75.517... by a Grantee? Project Staff § 75.517 Changes in key staff members. A grantee shall comply with 34 CFR 74.25(c)(2) concerning replacement or lesser involvement of any key project staff, whether or not the...

34 CFR 75.517 - Changes in key staff members.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 34 Education 1 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Changes in key staff members. 75.517 Section 75.517... by a Grantee? Project Staff § 75.517 Changes in key staff members. A grantee shall comply with 34 CFR 74.25(c)(2) concerning replacement or lesser involvement of any key project staff, whether or not the...

34 CFR 75.517 - Changes in key staff members.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 34 Education 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Changes in key staff members. 75.517 Section 75.517... by a Grantee? Project Staff § 75.517 Changes in key staff members. A grantee shall comply with 34 CFR 74.25(c)(2) concerning replacement or lesser involvement of any key project staff, whether or not the...

34 CFR 75.517 - Changes in key staff members.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 34 Education 1 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Changes in key staff members. 75.517 Section 75.517... by a Grantee? Project Staff § 75.517 Changes in key staff members. A grantee shall comply with 34 CFR 74.25(c)(2) concerning replacement or lesser involvement of any key project staff, whether or not the...

Key enablers to facilitate healthy behavior change: workshop summary.

PubMed

Teyhen, Deydre S; Aldag, Matt; Centola, Damon; Edinborough, Elton; Ghannadian, Jason D; Haught, Andrea; Jackson, Theresa; Kinn, Julie; Kunkler, Kevin J; Levine, Betty; Martindale, Valerie E; Neal, David; Snyder, Leslie B; Styn, Mindi A; Thorndike, Frances; Trabosh, Valerie; Parramore, David J

2014-05-01

The increases in preventable chronic diseases and the rising costs of health care are unsustainable. The US Army Surgeon General's vision to transition from a health care system to a system of health requires the identification of key health enablers to facilitate the adoption of healthy behaviors. In support of this vision, the US Army Telemedicine and Advanced Technology Research Center hosted a workshop in April 2013 titled "Incentives to Create and Sustain Change for Health." Members of government and academia participated to identify key health enablers that could ultimately be leveraged by technology. The key health enablers discussed included (1) public health messaging, (2) changing health habits and the environmental influence on health, (3) goal setting and tracking, (4) the role of incentives in behavior-change intervention, and (5) the role of peer and social networks on change. This report summarizes leading evidence and the group consensus on evidence-based practices with respect to the key enablers in creating healthy behavior change.

Pacific Decadal Variability and Central Pacific Warming El Niño in a Changing Climate

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Di Lorenzo, Emanuele

This research aimed at understanding the dynamics controlling decadal variability in the Pacific Ocean and its interactions with global-scale climate change. The first goal was to assess how the dynamics and statistics of the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the modes of Pacific decadal variability are represented in global climate models used in the IPCC. The second goal was to quantify how decadal dynamics are projected to change under continued greenhouse forcing, and determine their significance in the context of paleo-proxy reconstruction of long-term climate.

Decadal changes in channel morphology of a freely meandering river—Powder River, Montana, 1975–2016

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moody, John A.; Meade, Robert H.

2018-03-19

Few studies exist on the long-term geomorphic effects of floods. However, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) was able to begin such a study after a 50-year recurrence interval flood in 1978 because 20 channel cross sections along a 100-kilometer reach of river were established in 1975 and 1977 as part of a study for a proposed dam on Powder River in southeastern Montana. These cross-section measurements (data for each channel cross section are available at the USGS ScienceBase website) have been repeated about 30 times during four decades (1975–2016) and provide a unique dataset for understanding long-term changes in channel morphology caused by an extreme flood and a spectrum of annual floods.Changes in channel morphology of a 100-kilometer reach of Powder River are documented in a series of narratives for each channel cross section that include a time series of photographs as a record of these changes. The primary change during the first decade (1975–85) was the rapid vertical growth of a new inset flood plain within the flood-widened channel. Changes during the second decade (1985–95) were characterized by slower growth of the flood plain, and the effects of ice-jam floods typical of a northward-flowing river. Changes during the third decade (1995–2005) showed little vertical growth of the inset flood plain, which had reached a height that limited overbank deposition. And changes during the final decade (2005–16) covered in this report showed that, because the new inset flood plain had reached a limiting height, the effects of the large annual flood of 2008 (largest flood since 1978) were relatively small compared to smaller floods in previous decades. Throughout these four decades, the riparian vegetation, which interacts with the river, has undergone a gradual but substantial change that may have lasting effects on the channel morphology.

Multi-Decadal Change of Atmospheric Aerosols and Their Effect on Surface Radiation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chin, Mian; Diehl, Thomas; Tan, Qian; Wild, Martin; Qian, Yun; Yu, Hongbin; Bian, Huisheng; Wang, Weiguo

2012-01-01

We present an investigation on multi-decadal changes of atmospheric aerosols and their effects on surface radiation using a global chemistry transport model along with the near-term to long-term data records. We focus on a 28-year time period of satellite era from 1980 to 2007, during which a suite of aerosol data from satellite observations and ground-based remote sensing and in-situ measurements have become available. We analyze the long-term global and regional aerosol optical depth and concentration trends and their relationship to the changes of emissions" and assess the role aerosols play in the multi-decadal change of solar radiation reaching the surface (known as "dimming" or "brightening") at different regions of the world, including the major anthropogenic source regions (North America, Europe, Asia) that have been experiencing considerable changes of emissions, dust and biomass burning regions that have large interannual variabilities, downwind regions that are directly affected by the changes in the source area, and remote regions that are considered to representing "background" conditions.

Disabled Children and Their Families: A Decade of Policy Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Read, Janet; Blackburn, Clare; Spencer, Nick

2012-01-01

Focusing mainly on the United Kingdom, this article reviews a decade of national and international policy and legal changes in relation to disabled children and their families. It discusses attempts to transform the ways that disabled children are perceived and the rights accorded to them. The UN Convention on the Rights of Disabled Persons,…

Newborn survival in Bangladesh: a decade of change and future implications.

PubMed

Rubayet, Sayed; Shahidullah, Mohammad; Hossain, Altaf; Corbett, Erica; Moran, Allisyn C; Mannan, Imteaz; Matin, Ziaul; Wall, Stephen N; Pfitzer, Anne; Mannan, Ishtiaq; Syed, Uzma

2012-07-01

Remarkable progress over the last decade has put Bangladesh on track for Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 4 for child survival and achieved a 40% decline in maternal mortality. However, since neonatal deaths make up 57% of under-five mortality in the country, increased scale up and equity in programmes for neonatal survival are critical to sustain progress. We examined change for newborn survival from 2000 to 2010 considering mortality, coverage and funding indicators, as well as contextual factors. The national neonatal mortality rate has undergone an annual decline of 4.0% since 2000, reflecting greater progress than both the regional and global averages, but the mortality reduction for children 1-59 months was double this rate, at 8.6%. Examining policy and programme change, and national and donor funding for health, we identified various factors which contributed to an environment favourable to newborn survival. Locally-generated evidence combined with re-packaged global evidence, notably The Lancet Neonatal Series, has played a role, although pathways between research and policies and programme change are often complex. Several high-profile champions have had major influence. Attention for community initiatives and considerable donor funding also appear to have contributed. There have been some increases in coverage of key interventions, such as skilled attendance at birth and postnatal care, however these are low and reach less than one-third of families. Major reductions in total fertility, some change in gross national income and other contextual factors are likely to also have had an influence in mortality reduction. However, other factors such as socio-economic and geographic inequalities, frequent changes in government and pluralistic implementation structures have provided challenges. As coverage of health services increases, a notable gap remains in quality of facility-based care. Future gains for newborn survival in Bangladesh rest upon increased

Decadal changes in the Canary Current Upwelling Ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santos, A. M.; Luis, J. M.; Relvas-Almeida, P.

2013-12-01

The Canary Current Upwelling System (CCUS) covers the latitudinal range 12-43 degrees N and has some singularities in relation to the other three major Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems (EBUS), namely a major interruption in the continuity of the system at the Strait of Gibraltar and it is the only one with a sardine species from a different genus (Sardina vs Sardinops). Long-term trends in ocean temperature and coastal upwelling were investigated using the AVHRR Pathfinder SST (sea surface temperature) Version 5.1 dataset, in situ SST from the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS), and upwelling indices from the Pacific Fisheries Environmental Laboratory (PFEL). The analysis is applied to the eastern boundary of the North Atlantic, from 10 to 45 degrees N extending until 30 degrees W, focusing mainly in the CCUS because the strong dynamic link between the atmosphere and the ocean makes upwelling regions highly sensitive to global change and ideal to monitor and investigate its effects. The detail in SST variability results in a large extent from the fine analysis and the numerical processing carefully designed to avoid trend bias in the climatological studies. The obtained fields of SST trends show a generalized warming of the entire region. However, alternate patches of significantly different warming rates are observed, ranging from large scale down to mesoscale. Known coastal upwelling features are seen to warm at a lower rate than corresponding offshore waters, pointing to an intensification of the upwelling in the last decades. Wind data are used to attempt to explain the variability of some upwelling structures. Our results evidence the main role that mesoscale processes play in the modulation of the spatial and temporal variability of SST, namely at the decadal scale. This result prevents any global conclusion about the intensification of the upwelling at the scale of the entire CCUS. The bulk of the sardine population is located

NAS Decadal Review Town Hall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine is seeking community input for a study on the future of materials research (MR). Frontiers of Materials Research: A Decadal Survey will look at defining the frontiers of materials research ranging from traditional materials science and engineering to condensed matter physics. Please join members of the study committee for a town hall to discuss future directions for materials research in the United States in the context of worldwide efforts. In particular, input on the following topics will be of great value: progress, achievements, and principal changes in the R&D landscape over the past decade; identification of key MR areas that have major scientific gaps or offer promising investment opportunities from 2020-2030; and the challenges that MR may face over the next decade and how those challenges might be addressed. This study was requested by the Department of Energy and the National Science Foundation. The National Academies will issue a report in 2018 that will offer guidance to federal agencies that support materials research, science policymakers, and researchers in materials research and other adjoining fields. Learn more about the study at http://nas.edu/materials.

Anthropogenic Climate Change in Asia: Key Challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramaswamy, V.

2009-12-01

The energy, agricultural, and water sectors in Asia, a vast continent that comprises more than half of the world's population, are crucially vulnerable to shifts in climate. The acceleration of economic development in Asia over the past few decades, the dependence of its huge agricultural economy on rainfall, and its growing energy demands have thrust climate change and its impacts squarely into important sectors of the Asian society. Further, it is likely that there has been significant anthropogenic warming over the past 50 years averaged over the Asian continent (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [2007]; see Figure 1a). Asian megacities are already witnessing stresses in food, water, transportation, health, and air quality. The situation could become even worse with projected changes in temperature and rainfall in the 21st century, coupled with the likelihood that climate change will exacerbate extremes.

Interannual variation, decadal trend, and future change in ozone outflow from East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Jia; Liao, Hong; Mao, Yuhao; Yang, Yang; Jiang, Hui

2017-03-01

We examine the past and future changes in the O3 outflow from East Asia using a global 3-D chemical transport model, GEOS-Chem. The simulations of Asian O3 outflow for 1986-2006 are driven by the assimilated GEOS-4 meteorological fields, and those for 2000-2050 are driven by the meteorological fields archived by the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) 3 under the IPCC SRES A1B scenario. The evaluation of the model results against measurements shows that the GEOS-Chem model captures the seasonal cycles and interannual variations of tropospheric O3 concentrations fairly well with high correlation coefficients of 0.82-0.93 at four ground-based sites and 0.55-0.88 at two ozonesonde sites where observations are available. The increasing trends in surface-layer O3 concentrations in East Asia over the past 2 decades are captured by the model, although the modeled O3 trends have low biases. Sensitivity studies are conducted to examine the respective impacts of meteorological parameters and emissions on the variations in the outflow flux of O3. When both meteorological parameters and anthropogenic emissions varied from 1986-2006, the simulated Asian O3 outflow fluxes exhibited a statistically insignificant decadal trend; however, they showed large interannual variations (IAVs) with seasonal values of 4-9 % for the absolute percent departure from the mean (APDM) and an annual APDM value of 3.3 %. The sensitivity simulations indicated that the large IAVs in O3 outflow fluxes were mainly caused by variations in the meteorological conditions. The variations in meteorological parameters drove the IAVs in O3 outflow fluxes by altering the O3 concentrations over East Asia and by altering the zonal winds; the latter was identified to be the key factor, since the O3 outflow was highly correlated with zonal winds from 1986-2006. The simulations of the 2000-2050 changes show that the annual outflow flux of O3 will increase by 2.0, 7.9, and

Mechanisms underlying recent decadal changes in subpolar North Atlantic Ocean heat content

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piecuch, Christopher G.; Ponte, Rui M.; Little, Christopher M.; Buckley, Martha W.; Fukumori, Ichiro

2017-09-01

The subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) is subject to strong decadal variability, with implications for surface climate and its predictability. In 2004-2005, SPNA decadal upper ocean and sea-surface temperature trends reversed from warming during 1994-2004 to cooling over 2005-2015. This recent decadal trend reversal in SPNA ocean heat content (OHC) is studied using a physically consistent, observationally constrained global ocean state estimate covering 1992-2015. The estimate's physical consistency facilitates quantitative causal attribution of ocean variations. Closed heat budget diagnostics reveal that the SPNA OHC trend reversal is the result of heat advection by midlatitude ocean circulation. Kinematic decompositions reveal that changes in the deep and intermediate vertical overturning circulation cannot account for the trend reversal, but rather ocean heat transports by horizontal gyre circulations render the primary contributions. The shift in horizontal gyre advection reflects anomalous circulation acting on the mean temperature gradients. Maximum covariance analysis (MCA) reveals strong covariation between the anomalous horizontal gyre circulation and variations in the local wind stress curl, suggestive of a Sverdrup response. Results have implications for decadal predictability.

Systematic review: has disease outcome in Crohn's disease changed during the last four decades?

PubMed

Wolters, F L; Russel, M G V M; Stockbrügger, R W

2004-09-01

Disease outcome in Crohn's disease might have changed during the last four decades. Disease outcome measurement in Crohn's disease has methodological difficulties because of patient selection and lack of proper definition of diagnostic and outcome measurement criteria. To assess possible changes in disease outcome in Crohn's disease during the last four decades. A systematic literature search was performed using the MEDLINE search engine and major international conference libraries. Articles and abstracts were selected according to stringent inclusion criteria. Forty articles and nine abstracts complied with the inclusion criteria. Seven studies with a median follow-up time between 11.1 and 17 years showed standard mortality ratios in Crohn's disease ranging between 2.16 and 0.72 with a tendency of decline during the last four decades. One study with 11.4 years mean follow-up time showed a statistically significant increased relative risk for colorectal cancer that was not confirmed by three others. Sixteen publications applied in the disease recurrence category. Probability of first resective surgery ranged between 38 and 96% during the first 15 years after diagnosis. The overall recurrence and surgical recurrence rates after first resective surgery ranged between 50 and 60, and 28 and 45% respectively during the following 15 years without an apparent time trend. This structured literature review provides no hard evidence for change in disease outcome in Crohn's disease during the last four decades. Copyright 2004 Blackwell Publishing Ltd

Decadal changes in potassium, calcium, and magnesium in a deciduous forest soil.

Treesearch

D.W. Johnson; D.E. Todd; Carl C. Trettin; P.J. Mulholland

2009-01-01

Decadal changes in soil exchangeable K+, Ca2+, and Mg2+ concentrations and contents from 1972 to 2004 in eight intensively monitored plots on Walker Branch Watershed were compared with estimates of increments or decrements in vegetation and detritus. The results from these eight plots...

A Decade of Field Changing Atmospheric Aerosol Research ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Conference: Gordon Research Conference in Atmospheric Chemistry, July 28 – August 2, 2013, VermontPresentation Type: PosterTitle: An Analysis of EPA’s STAR Program and a Decade of Field Changing Research in Atmospheric AerosolsAuthors: Kristina M. Wagstrom1,2, Sherri W. Hunt31Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT2AAAS Science and Technology Policy Fellow hosted by U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, National Center for Environmental Research3U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, National Center for Environmental ResearchA number of studies in the past decade have transformed the way we think about atmospheric aerosols. The advances include, but are not limited to, source apportionment of organics using aerosol mass spectrometer data, the volatility basis set approach, quantifying isoprene oxidation, and understanding the role of aqueous oxidation of organics on SOA formation. A series of grants funded by EPA just under ten years ago supported many of these advances. These projects make up the body of work awarded under two solicitations released by the EPA’s Science to Achieve Results (STAR) program: “Measurement, Modeling, and Analysis Methods for Airborne Carbonaceous Fine Particulate Matter” (2003) and “Source Apportionment of Particulate Matter” (2004). Our goal is to present the impact of the STAR solicitations and to show how they have pushed the field forward and led to new questions.In particular

Large-Scale Atmospheric Teleconnection Patterns Associated with the Interannual Variability of Heatwaves in East Asia and Its Decadal Changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, N.; Lee, M. I.; Lim, Y. K.; Kim, K. M.

2017-12-01

Heatwave is an extreme hot weather event which accompanies fatal damage to human health. The heatwave has a strong relationship with the large-scale atmospheric teleconnection patterns. In this study, we examine the spatial pattern of heatwave in East Asia by using the EOF analysis and the relationship between heatwave frequency and large-scale atmospheric teleconnection patterns. We also separate the time scale of heatwave frequency as the time scale longer than a decade and the interannual time scale. The long-term variation of heatwave frequency in East Asia shows a linkage with the sea surface temperature (SST) variability over the North Atlantic with a decadal time scale (a.k.a. the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation; AMO). On the other hands, the interannual variation of heatwave frequency is linked with the two dominant spatial patterns associated with the large-scale teleconnection patterns mimicking the Scandinavian teleconnection (SCAND-like) pattern and the circumglobal teleconnection (CGT-like) pattern, respectively. It is highlighted that the interannual variation of heatwave frequency in East Asia shows a remarkable change after mid-1990s. While the heatwave frequency was mainly associated with the CGT-like pattern before mid-1990s, the SCAND-like pattern becomes the most dominant one after mid-1990s, making the CGT-like pattern as the second. This study implies that the large-scale atmospheric teleconnection patterns play a key role in developing heatwave events in East Asia. This study further discusses possible mechanisms for the decadal change in the linkage between heatwave frequency and the large-scale teleconnection patterns in East Asia such as early melting of snow cover and/or weakening of East Asian jet stream due to global warming.

Older Adults' Attitudes Toward Cohabitation: Two Decades of Change.

PubMed

Brown, Susan L; Wright, Matthew R

2016-07-01

Our study tracks cohort change in the attitudes of adults aged 50 and older toward cohabitation from 1994 to 2012. We used data from the 1994, 2002, and 2012 waves of the General Social Survey to examine the roles of cohort replacement and intracohort change in the trend toward favorable cohabitation attitudes and to examine sociodemographic variation in patterns of support for cohabitation. Support for cohabitation accelerated over time with nearly half (46%) of older adults reporting favorable attitudes toward cohabitation in 2012 versus just 20% in 1994. This shift in older adults' attitudes largely reflected cohort replacement rather than intracohort change. Some of the factors associated with later life cohabitation experience were linked to supportive attitudes. Cohort succession is fueling the growing acceptance of cohabitation among older adults and coincides with the rapid growth in later life cohabitation that has occurred in recent decades. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Progressive Bidirectional Age-Related Changes in Default Mode Network Effective Connectivity across Six Decades

PubMed Central

Li, Karl; Laird, Angela R.; Price, Larry R.; McKay, D. Reese; Blangero, John; Glahn, David C.; Fox, Peter T.

2016-01-01

The default mode network (DMN) is a set of regions that is tonically engaged during the resting state and exhibits task-related deactivation that is readily reproducible across a wide range of paradigms and modalities. The DMN has been implicated in numerous disorders of cognition and, in particular, in disorders exhibiting age-related cognitive decline. Despite these observations, investigations of the DMN in normal aging are scant. Here, we used blood oxygen level dependent (BOLD) functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) acquired during rest to investigate age-related changes in functional connectivity of the DMN in 120 healthy normal volunteers comprising six, 20-subject, decade cohorts (from 20–29 to 70–79). Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to assess age-related changes in inter-regional connectivity within the DMN. SEM was applied both using a previously published, meta-analytically derived, node-and-edge model, and using exploratory modeling searching for connections that optimized model fit improvement. Although the two models were highly similar (only 3 of 13 paths differed), the sample demonstrated significantly better fit with the exploratory model. For this reason, the exploratory model was used to assess age-related changes across the decade cohorts. Progressive, highly significant changes in path weights were found in 8 (of 13) paths: four rising, and four falling (most changes were significant by the third or fourth decade). In all cases, rising paths and falling paths projected in pairs onto the same nodes, suggesting compensatory increases associated with age-related decreases. This study demonstrates that age-related changes in DMN physiology (inter-regional connectivity) are bidirectional, progressive, of early onset and part of normal aging. PMID:27378909

Progressive Bidirectional Age-Related Changes in Default Mode Network Effective Connectivity across Six Decades.

PubMed

Li, Karl; Laird, Angela R; Price, Larry R; McKay, D Reese; Blangero, John; Glahn, David C; Fox, Peter T

2016-01-01

The default mode network (DMN) is a set of regions that is tonically engaged during the resting state and exhibits task-related deactivation that is readily reproducible across a wide range of paradigms and modalities. The DMN has been implicated in numerous disorders of cognition and, in particular, in disorders exhibiting age-related cognitive decline. Despite these observations, investigations of the DMN in normal aging are scant. Here, we used blood oxygen level dependent (BOLD) functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) acquired during rest to investigate age-related changes in functional connectivity of the DMN in 120 healthy normal volunteers comprising six, 20-subject, decade cohorts (from 20-29 to 70-79). Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to assess age-related changes in inter-regional connectivity within the DMN. SEM was applied both using a previously published, meta-analytically derived, node-and-edge model, and using exploratory modeling searching for connections that optimized model fit improvement. Although the two models were highly similar (only 3 of 13 paths differed), the sample demonstrated significantly better fit with the exploratory model. For this reason, the exploratory model was used to assess age-related changes across the decade cohorts. Progressive, highly significant changes in path weights were found in 8 (of 13) paths: four rising, and four falling (most changes were significant by the third or fourth decade). In all cases, rising paths and falling paths projected in pairs onto the same nodes, suggesting compensatory increases associated with age-related decreases. This study demonstrates that age-related changes in DMN physiology (inter-regional connectivity) are bidirectional, progressive, of early onset and part of normal aging.

Decadal change of the south Atlantic ocean Angola-Benguela frontal zone since 1980

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vizy, Edward K.; Cook, Kerry H.; Sun, Xiaoming

2018-01-01

High-resolution simulations with a regional atmospheric model coupled to an intermediate-level mixed layer ocean model along with multiple atmospheric and oceanic reanalyses are analyzed to understand how and why the Angola-Benguela frontal Zone (ABFZ) has changed since 1980. A southward shift of 0.05°-0.55° latitude decade-1 in the annual mean ABFZ position accompanied by an intensification of + 0.05 to + 0.13 K/100-km decade-1 has occurred as ocean mixed layer temperatures have warmed (cooled) equatorward (poleward) of the front over the 1980-2014 period. These changes are captured in a 35-year model integration. The oceanic warming north of the ABFZ is associated with a weakening of vertical entrainment, reduced cooling associated with vertical diffusion, and a deepening of the mixed layer along the Angola coast. These changes coincide with a steady weakening of the onshore atmospheric flow as the zonal pressure gradient between the eastern equatorial Atlantic and the Congo Basin weakens. Oceanic cooling poleward of the ABFZ is primarily due to enhanced advection of cooler water from the south and east, increased cooling by vertical diffusion, and shoaling of the mixed layer depth. In the atmosphere, these changes are related to an intensification and poleward shift of the South Atlantic sub-tropical anticyclone as surface winds, hence the westward mixed layer ocean currents, intensify in the Benguela upwelling region along the Namibian coast. With a few caveats, these findings demonstrate that air/sea interactions play a prominent role in influencing the observed decadal variability of the ABFZ over the southeastern Atlantic since 1980.

Meridional Modes and Increasing Pacific Decadal Variability Under Anthropogenic Forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liguori, Giovanni; Di Lorenzo, Emanuele

2018-01-01

Pacific decadal variability has strong impacts on the statistics of weather, atmosphere extremes, droughts, hurricanes, marine heatwaves, and marine ecosystems. Sea surface temperature (SST) observations show that the variance of the El Niño-like decadal variability has increased by 30% (1920-2015) with a stronger coupling between the major Pacific climate modes. Although we cannot attribute these trends to global climate change, the examination of 30 members of the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (LENS) forced with the RCP8.5 radiative forcing scenario (1920-2100) suggests that significant anthropogenic trends in Pacific decadal variance will emerge by 2020 in response to a more energetic North Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM)—a well-known El Niño precursor. The PMM is a key mechanism for energizing and coupling tropical and extratropical decadal variability. In the LENS, the increase in PMM variance is consistent with an intensification of the winds-evaporation-SST thermodynamic feedback that results from a warmer mean climate.

Changes in Lithuanian Pre-School and Pre-Primary Education Quality over the Last Decade

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Monkeviciene, Ona; Stankeviciene, Kristina

2011-01-01

Over the last decade, the changes in Lithuanian pre-school and pre-primary education have been predetermined by changes in paradigms of children's education and strategic education documents that provided for guidelines of high quality children's (self-)education, an increasing attention of society to the quality of children's education, training…

The Future We Want: Key Issues on Sustainable Development in Higher Education after Rio and the UN Decade of Education for Sustainable Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Leal Filho, Walter; Manolas, Evangelos; Pace, Paul

2015-01-01

Purpose: This paper aims to provide a description of the achievements of the United Nations (UN) Decade of Education for Sustainable Development (2005-2014) with a focus on higher education, and it describes some of the key issues which will guide sustainable development in the coming years. Design/methodology/approach: The paper initially…

Decadal land cover change dynamics in Bhutan.

PubMed

Gilani, Hammad; Shrestha, Him Lal; Murthy, M S R; Phuntso, Phuntso; Pradhan, Sudip; Bajracharya, Birendra; Shrestha, Basanta

2015-01-15

Land cover (LC) is one of the most important and easily detectable indicators of change in ecosystem services and livelihood support systems. This paper describes the decadal dynamics in LC changes at national and sub-national level in Bhutan derived by applying object-based image analysis (OBIA) techniques to 1990, 2000, and 2010 Landsat (30 m spatial resolution) data. Ten LC classes were defined in order to give a harmonized legend land cover classification system (LCCS). An accuracy of 83% was achieved for LC-2010 as determined from spot analysis using very high resolution satellite data from Google Earth Pro and limited field verification. At the national level, overall forest increased from 25,558 to 26,732 km(2) between 1990 and 2010, equivalent to an average annual growth rate of 59 km(2)/year (0.22%). There was an overall reduction in grassland, shrubland, and barren area, but the observations were highly dependent on time of acquisition of the satellite data and climatic conditions. The greatest change from non-forest to forest (277 km(2)) was in Bumthang district, followed by Wangdue Phodrang and Trashigang, with the least (1 km(2)) in Tsirang. Forest and scrub forest covers close to 75% of the land area of Bhutan, and just over half of the total area (51%) has some form of conservation status. This study indicates that numerous applications and analyses can be carried out to support improved land cover and land use (LCLU) management. It will be possible to replicate this study in the future as comparable new satellite data is scheduled to become available. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Large decadal-scale changes in uranium and bicarbonate in groundwater of the irrigated western U.S

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burow, Karen R.; Belitz, Kenneth; Dubrovsky, Neil M.; Jurgens, Bryant C.

2017-01-01

Samples collected about one decade apart from 1105 wells from across the U.S. were compiled to assess whether uranium concentrations in the arid climate are linked to changing bicarbonate concentrations in the irrigated western U.S. Uranium concentrations in groundwater were high in the arid climate in the western U.S, where uranium sources are abundant. Sixty-four wells (6%) were above the U.S. EPA MCL of 30 μg/L; all but one are in the arid west. Concentrations were low to non-detectable in the humid climate. Large uranium and bicarbonate increases (differences are greater than the uncertainty in concentrations) occur in 109 wells between decade 1 and decade 2. Similarly, large uranium and bicarbonate decreases occur in 76 wells between the two decades. Significantly more wells are concordant (uranium and bicarbonate are both going the same direction) than discordant (uranium and bicarbonate are going opposite directions) (p < 0.001; Chi-square test). The largest percent difference in uranium concentrations occur in wells where uranium is increasing and bicarbonate is also increasing. These large differences occur mostly in the arid climate. Results are consistent with the hypothesis that changing uranium concentrations are linked to changes in bicarbonate in irrigated areas of the western U.S.

Interannual and Decadal Changes in Salinity in the Oceanic Subtropical Gyres

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bulusu, Subrahmanyam

2017-04-01

There is evidence that the global water cycle has been undergoing an intensification over several decades as a response to increasing atmospheric temperatures, particularly in regions with skewed evaporation - precipitation (E-P) patterns such as the oceanic subtropical gyres. Moreover, observational data (rain gauges, etc.) are quite sparse over such areas due to the inaccessibility of open ocean regions. In this work, a comparison of observational and model simulations are conducted to highlight the potential applications of satellite derived salinity from NASA Aquarius Salinity mission, NASA Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS), and ESA's Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP). We explored spatial and temporal salinity changes (and trends) in surface and subsurface in the oceanic subtropical gyres using Argo floats salinity data, Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) reanalysis, Estimating the Circulations & Climate of the Ocean GECCO (German ECCO) model simulations, and Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). Our results based on SODA reanalysis reveals that a positive rising trend in sea surface salinity in the subtropical gyres emphasizing evidence for decadal intensification in the surface forcing in these regions. Zonal drift in the location of the salinity maximum of the south Pacific, north Atlantic, and south Indian regions implies a change in the mean near-surface currents responsible for advecting high salinity waters into the region. Also we found out that an overall salinity increase within the mixed layer, and a subsurface salinity decrease at depths greater than 200m in the global subtropical gyres over 61 years. We determine that freshwater fluxes at the air-sea interface are the primary drivers of the sea surface salinity (SSS) signature over these open ocean regions by quantifying the advective contribution within the surface layer. This was demonstrated through a mixed layer salinity budget in each subtropical gyre based on the vertically

Experiencing limits of acceptable change: some thoughts after a decade of implementation

Treesearch

Stephen F. McCool; David N. Cole

1997-01-01

Wilderness managers and researchers have experienced implementation of the Limits of Acceptable Change planning system for over a decade. In a sense, implementation of LAC has been a broad scale experiment in planning, with the hypothesis being that LAC processes are more effective approaches to deal with questions of recreation management in protected areas than the...

Using decadal climate prediction to characterize and manage changing drought and flood risks in Colorado

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lazrus, H.; Done, J.; Morss, R. E.

2017-12-01

A new branch of climate science, known as decadal prediction, seeks to predict the time-varying trajectory of climate over the next 3-30 years and not just the longer-term trends. Decadal predictions bring climate information into the time horizon of decision makers, particularly those tasked with managing water resources and floods whose master planning is often on the timescale of decades. Information from decadal predictions may help alleviate some aspects of vulnerability by helping to inform decisions that reduce drought and flood exposure and increase adaptive capacities including preparedness, response, and recovery. This presentation will highlight an interdisciplinary project - involving atmospheric and social scientists - on the development of decadal climate information and its use in decision making. The presentation will explore the skill and utility of decadal drought and flood prediction along Colorado's Front Range, an area experiencing rapid population growth and uncertain climate variability and climate change impacts. Innovative statistical and dynamical atmospheric modeling techniques explore the extent to which Colorado precipitation can be predicted on decadal scales using remote Pacific Ocean surface temperature patterns. Concurrently, stakeholder interviews with flood managers in Colorado are being used to explore the potential utility of decadal climate information. Combining the modeling results with results from the stakeholder interviews shows that while there is still significant uncertainty surrounding precipitation on decadal time scales, relevant and well communicated decadal information has potential to be useful for drought and flood management.

New Zealand: long-term care in a decade of change.

PubMed

Ashton, T

2000-01-01

Long-term care in New Zealand incorporates a mix of public and private funding and provision. After a decade of structural change, the purchasing of almost all publicly funded health and social care is now the responsibility of one central agency. Services for older persons are poorly integrated, and there are problems of access to and quality of some services. Efforts are being made to address these problems. The challenge now is to ensure that this groundwork is not lost amid the turmoil of yet another round of restructuring by an enthusiastic, newly elected government.

Inter-Annual and Decadal Changes in Tropospheric and Stratospheric Ozone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ziemke, Jr. R.; Chandra, S.

2011-01-01

Ozone data beginning October 2004 from the Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) are used to evaluate the accuracy of the Cloud slicing technique in effort to develop long data records of tropospheric and stratospheric ozone and studying their long-term changes. Using this technique, we have produced a 32-year (1979-2010) long record of tropospheric and stratospheric ozone from the combined Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (Toms) and OMI. The analyses of these time series suggest that the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is the dominant source of inter-annual changes of 30-40 Dobson Units (DU). Tropospheric ozone also indicates a QBO signal in the peak to peak changes varying from 2 to 7 DU. Decadal changes in global stratospheric ozone indicate a turnaround in ozone loss around mid 1990's with most of these changes occurring in the Northern Hemisphere from the subtropics to high latitudes. The trend results are generally consistent with the prediction of chemistry climate models which include the reduction of ozone destroying substances beginning in the late 1980's mandated by the Montreal Protocol.

A decade in diabetes specialist services, 2000 to 2011, in England: the views of consultant diabetologists and diabetes specialist nurses amidst persistent healthcare delivery change.

PubMed

Gosden, C A; Barnard, K; Williams, D R R; Tinati, T; Turner, B; Holt, R I G

2015-12-01

To assess the impact of continual major National Health Service reorganization on commissioning, organizational and delivery arrangements for secondary care diabetes services. To explore how consultant diabetologists and diabetes specialist nurses perceive the issues facing diabetes specialist services in 2011 and how these have changed in the preceding decade. We used a longitudinal case study approach that combined quantitative and qualitative methods. Five locations in England were purposively selected to represent the wider diabetes specialist community, and seven semi-structured interviews were conducted. Interviews were recorded, transcribed verbatim and analysed using Framework analysis. Findings were compared with and contrasted to results from national quantitative surveys of diabetes specialist services undertaken in 2000 and 2006. Clinicians viewed positively the expertise and commitment of multidisciplinary teams and their ability to adapt to new situations. Negative perceptions persisted throughout the decade, relating to the continual change that threatens to dismantle relationships and services which had taken many years to establish. Lack of resources, inadequate manpower planning and poor access to psychological support for people with diabetes remained constant themes from 2000 to 2011. A willingness to innovate and work differently to improve services was identified; however, clinicians must be supported through organizational changes to ensure people with diabetes receive high-quality care. The disruptive nature of organizational change was a recurrent theme throughout the decade. Periods of stability must exist within commissioning to allow relationships, which are key to integration, to be maintained and permit service improvements to develop. © 2015 The Authors. Diabetic Medicine © 2015 Diabetes UK.

Breastfeeding: what changed after a decade?1.

PubMed

Toryiama, Áurea Tamami Minagawa; Fujimori, Elizabeth; Palombo, Claudia Nery Teixeira; Duarte, Luciane Simões; Borges, Ana Luiza Vilela; Chofakian, Christiane Borges do Nascimento

2017-10-30

to analyze the changes in prevalence, median duration and correlates of breastfeeding in a small city in São Paulo state, Brazil. analysis of two cross-sectional studies, conducted at intervals of one decade, with 261 and 302 children younger than two years, respectively. We used Kaplan-Meier survival analysis for calculation of the median duration of breastfeeding, and Cox regression for correlates analysis, with significance level of 5%. an increase of 33.4% in the prevalence of exclusive breastfeeding and 20.9% in breastfeeding was identified. Regarding the latter, the median duration increased from 7.2 to 12 months. In the most recent study, the median duration was lower in first-born children who used pacifiers, and it was not associated with breastfeeding incentive actions. advances in the prevalence and duration of breastfeeding were observed during the 10 year-period, however, pacifier use still remains associated to a shorter median duration of breastfeeding. Our findings contribute to highlighting the need for intensification of nursing actions in the promotion of breastfeeding, and discouragement regarding the use of pacifiers.

Simulated decadal modes of the NH atmospheric circulation arising from intra-decadal variability, external forcing and slow-decadal climate processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lou, Jiale; Zheng, Xiaogu; Frederiksen, Carsten S.; Liu, Haibo; Grainger, Simon; Ying, Kairan

2017-04-01

A decadal variance decomposition method is applied to the Northern Hemisphere (NH) 500-hPa geopotential height (GPH) and the sea level pressure (SLP) taken from the last millennium (850-1850 AD) experiment with the coupled climate model CCSM4, to estimate the contribution of the intra-decadal variability to the inter-decadal variability. By removing the intra-decadal variability from the total inter-decadal variability, the residual variability is more likely to be associated with slowly varying external forcings and slow-decadal climate processes, and therefore is referred to as slow-decadal variability. The results show that the (multi-)decadal changes of the NH 500-hPa GPH are primarily dominated by slow-decadal variability, whereas the NH SLP field is primarily dominated by the intra-decadal variability. At both pressure levels, the leading intra-decadal modes each have features related to the El Niño-southern oscillation, the intra-decadal variability of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and the Arctic oscillation (AO); while the leading slow-decadal modes are associated with external radiative forcing (mostly with volcanic aerosol loadings), the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation and the slow-decadal variability of AO and PDO. Moreover, the radiative forcing has much weaker effect to the SLP than that to the 500-hPa GPH.

A decade of changes in brain volume and cognition.

PubMed

Aljondi, Rowa; Szoeke, Cassandra; Steward, Chris; Yates, Paul; Desmond, Patricia

2018-05-09

Brain atrophy can occur several decades prior to onset of cognitive impairments. However, few longitudinal studies have examined the relationship between brain volume changes and cognition over a long follow-up period in healthy elderly women. In the present study we investigate the relationship between whole brain and hippocampal atrophy rates and longitudinal changes in cognition, including verbal episodic memory and executive function, in older women. We also examine whether baseline brain volume predicts subsequent changes in cognitive performance over a 10-year period. A total of 60 individuals from the population-based Women's Healthy Ageing Project with a mean age at baseline of 59 years underwent 3T MRI. Of these, 40 women completed follow-up cognitive assessments, 23 of whom had follow-up MRI scans. Linear regression analysis was used to examine the relationship between brain atrophy and changes in verbal episodic memory and executive function over a 10-year period. The results show that baseline measurements of frontal and temporal grey matter volumes predict changes in verbal episodic memory performance, whereas hippocampal volume at baseline is associated with changes in executive function performance over a 10-year period of follow-ups. In addition, higher whole brain and hippocampal atrophy rates are correlated with a decline in verbal episodic memory. These findings indicate that in addition to atrophy rate, smaller regional grey matter volumes even 10 years prior is associated with increased rates of cognitive decline. This study suggests useful neuroimaging biomarkers for the prediction of cognitive decline in healthy elderly women.

Role of internal variability in recent decadal to multidecadal tropical Pacific climate changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bordbar, Mohammad Hadi; Martin, Thomas; Latif, Mojib; Park, Wonsun

2017-05-01

While the Earth's surface has considerably warmed over the past two decades, the tropical Pacific has featured a cooling of sea surface temperatures in its eastern and central parts, which went along with an unprecedented strengthening of the equatorial trade winds, the surface component of the Pacific Walker Circulation (PWC). Previous studies show that this decadal trend in the trade winds is generally beyond the range of decadal trends simulated by climate models when forced by historical radiative forcing. There is still a debate on the origin of and the potential role that internal variability may have played in the recent decadal surface wind trend. Using a number of long control (unforced) integrations of global climate models and several observational data sets, we address the question as to whether the recent decadal to multidecadal trends are robustly classified as an unusual event or the persistent response to external forcing. The observed trends in the tropical Pacific surface climate are still within the range of the long-term internal variability spanned by the models but represent an extreme realization of this variability. Thus, the recent observed decadal trends in the tropical Pacific, though highly unusual, could be of natural origin. We note that the long-term trends in the selected PWC indices exhibit a large observational uncertainty, even hindering definitive statements about the sign of the trends.