Cancer Epidemiology Cohorts

Cancer.gov

Cohort studies are fundamental for epidemiological research by helping researchers better understand the etiology of cancer and provide insights into the key determinants of this disease and its outcomes.

Against Popperized epidemiology.

PubMed

Jacobsen, M

1976-03-01

The recommendation of Popper's philosophy of science should be adopted by epidemiologists is disputed. Reference is made to other authors who have shown that the most constructive elements in Popper's ideas have been advocated by earlier philosophers and have been used in epidemiology without abandoning inductive reasoning. It is argued that Popper's denigration of inductive methods is particularly harmful to epidemiology. Inductive reasoning and statistical inference play a key role in the science; it is suggested that unfamiliarity with these ideas contributes to widespread misunderstanding of the function of epidemiology. Attention is drawn to a common fallacy involving correlations between three random variables. The prevalence of the fallacy may be related to confusion between deductive and inductive logic.

Triangulation in aetiological epidemiology

PubMed Central

Lawlor, Debbie A; Tilling, Kate; Davey Smith, George

2016-01-01

Abstract Triangulation is the practice of obtaining more reliable answers to research questions through integrating results from several different approaches, where each approach has different key sources of potential bias that are unrelated to each other. With respect to causal questions in aetiological epidemiology, if the results of different approaches all point to the same conclusion, this strengthens confidence in the finding. This is particularly the case when the key sources of bias of some of the approaches would predict that findings would point in opposite directions if they were due to such biases. Where there are inconsistencies, understanding the key sources of bias of each approach can help to identify what further research is required to address the causal question. The aim of this paper is to illustrate how triangulation might be used to improve causal inference in aetiological epidemiology. We propose a minimum set of criteria for use in triangulation in aetiological epidemiology, summarize the key sources of bias of several approaches and describe how these might be integrated within a triangulation framework. We emphasize the importance of being explicit about the expected direction of bias within each approach, whenever this is possible, and seeking to identify approaches that would be expected to bias the true causal effect in different directions. We also note the importance, when comparing results, of taking account of differences in the duration and timing of exposures. We provide three examples to illustrate these points. PMID:28108528

An Immuno-epidemiological Model of Paratuberculosis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martcheva, M.

2011-11-01

The primary objective of this article is to introduce an immuno-epidemiological model of paratuberculosis (Johne's disease). To develop the immuno-epidemiological model, we first develop an immunological model and an epidemiological model. Then, we link the two models through time-since-infection structure and parameters of the epidemiological model. We use the nested approach to compose the immuno-epidemiological model. Our immunological model captures the switch between the T-cell immune response and the antibody response in Johne's disease. The epidemiological model is a time-since-infection model and captures the variability of transmission rate and the vertical transmission of the disease. We compute the immune-response-dependent epidemiological reproduction number. Our immuno-epidemiological model can be used for investigation of the impact of the immune response on the epidemiology of Johne's disease.

Criticality in epidemiology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stollenwerk, Nico; Jansen, Vincent A. A.

For a long time criticality has been considered in epidemiological models. We review the body of theory developed over the last twenty five years for the simplest models. It is at first glance difficult to imagine that an epidemiological system operates at a very fine tuned critical state as opposed to any other parameter region. However, the advent of self-organized criticality has given hints in how to interpret large fluctuations observed in many natural systems including epidemiological systems. We show some scenarios where criticality has been observed (e.g., measles under vaccination) and where evolution towards a critical state can explain fluctuations (e.g., meningococcal disease.)

A Systematic Bayesian Integration of Epidemiological and Genetic Data

PubMed Central

Lau, Max S. Y.; Marion, Glenn; Streftaris, George; Gibson, Gavin

2015-01-01

Genetic sequence data on pathogens have great potential to inform inference of their transmission dynamics ultimately leading to better disease control. Where genetic change and disease transmission occur on comparable timescales additional information can be inferred via the joint analysis of such genetic sequence data and epidemiological observations based on clinical symptoms and diagnostic tests. Although recently introduced approaches represent substantial progress, for computational reasons they approximate genuine joint inference of disease dynamics and genetic change in the pathogen population, capturing partially the joint epidemiological-evolutionary dynamics. Improved methods are needed to fully integrate such genetic data with epidemiological observations, for achieving a more robust inference of the transmission tree and other key epidemiological parameters such as latent periods. Here, building on current literature, a novel Bayesian framework is proposed that infers simultaneously and explicitly the transmission tree and unobserved transmitted pathogen sequences. Our framework facilitates the use of realistic likelihood functions and enables systematic and genuine joint inference of the epidemiological-evolutionary process from partially observed outbreaks. Using simulated data it is shown that this approach is able to infer accurately joint epidemiological-evolutionary dynamics, even when pathogen sequences and epidemiological data are incomplete, and when sequences are available for only a fraction of exposures. These results also characterise and quantify the value of incomplete and partial sequence data, which has important implications for sampling design, and demonstrate the abilities of the introduced method to identify multiple clusters within an outbreak. The framework is used to analyse an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in the UK, enhancing current understanding of its transmission dynamics and evolutionary process. PMID:26599399

Prediction of Geomagnetic Activity and Key Parameters in High-Latitude Ionosphere-Basic Elements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lyatsky, W.; Khazanov, G. V.

2007-01-01

Prediction of geomagnetic activity and related events in the Earth's magnetosphere and ionosphere is an important task of the Space Weather program. Prediction reliability is dependent on the prediction method and elements included in the prediction scheme. Two main elements are a suitable geomagnetic activity index and coupling function -- the combination of solar wind parameters providing the best correlation between upstream solar wind data and geomagnetic activity. The appropriate choice of these two elements is imperative for any reliable prediction model. The purpose of this work was to elaborate on these two elements -- the appropriate geomagnetic activity index and the coupling function -- and investigate the opportunity to improve the reliability of the prediction of geomagnetic activity and other events in the Earth's magnetosphere. The new polar magnetic index of geomagnetic activity and the new version of the coupling function lead to a significant increase in the reliability of predicting the geomagnetic activity and some key parameters, such as cross-polar cap voltage and total Joule heating in high-latitude ionosphere, which play a very important role in the development of geomagnetic and other activity in the Earth s magnetosphere, and are widely used as key input parameters in modeling magnetospheric, ionospheric, and thermospheric processes.

Modelling the effect of heterogeneity of shedding on the within herd Coxiella burnetii spread and identification of key parameters by sensitivity analysis.

PubMed

Courcoul, Aurélie; Monod, Hervé; Nielen, Mirjam; Klinkenberg, Don; Hogerwerf, Lenny; Beaudeau, François; Vergu, Elisabeta

2011-09-07

Coxiella burnetii is the bacterium responsible for Q fever, a worldwide zoonosis. Ruminants, especially cattle, are recognized as the most important source of human infections. Although a great heterogeneity between shedder cows has been described, no previous studies have determined which features such as shedding route and duration or the quantity of bacteria shed have the strongest impact on the environmental contamination and thus on the zoonotic risk. Our objective was to identify key parameters whose variation highly influences C. burnetii spread within a dairy cattle herd, especially those related to the heterogeneity of shedding. To compare the impact of epidemiological parameters on different dynamical aspects of C. burnetii infection, we performed a sensitivity analysis on an original stochastic model describing the bacterium spread and representing the individual variability of the shedding duration, routes and intensity as well as herd demography. This sensitivity analysis consisted of a principal component analysis followed by an ANOVA. Our findings show that the most influential parameters are the probability distribution governing the levels of shedding, especially in vaginal mucus and faeces, the characteristics of the bacterium in the environment (i.e. its survival and the fraction of bacteria shed reaching the environment), and some physiological parameters related to the intermittency of shedding (transition probability from a non-shedding infected state to a shedding state) or to the transition from one type of shedder to another one (transition probability from a seronegative shedding state to a seropositive shedding state). Our study is crucial for the understanding of the dynamics of C. burnetii infection and optimization of control measures. Indeed, as control measures should impact the parameters influencing the bacterium spread most, our model can now be used to assess the effectiveness of different control strategies of Q fever within

[Scientific, practical and educational aspects of clinical epidemiology].

PubMed

Briko, N I

2012-01-01

This article defines clinical epidemiology and describes its goal and objectives. The author claims that clinical epidemiology is a section of epidemiology which underlies the development of evidence-based standards for diagnostics, treatment and prevention and helps to select the appropriate algorithm for each clinical case. The study provides a comprehensive overview of the relationship between clinical epidemiology and evidence-based medicine. Epidemiological research is shown to be methodological basis of clinical epidemiology and evidence-based medicine with randomized controlled trials being the "gold standard" for obtaining reliable data. The key stages in the history of clinical epidemiology are discussed and further development of clinical epidemiology and the integration of courses on clinical epidemiology in education is outlined for progress in medical research and health care practice.

Measuring Two Key Parameters of H3 Color Centers in Diamond

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roberts, W. Thomas

2005-01-01

A method of measuring two key parameters of H3 color centers in diamond has been created as part of a continuing effort to develop tunable, continuous-wave, visible lasers that would utilize diamond as the lasing medium. (An H3 color center in a diamond crystal lattice comprises two nitrogen atoms substituted for two carbon atoms bonded to a third carbon atom. H3 color centers can be induced artificially; they also occur naturally. If present in sufficient density, they impart a yellow hue.) The method may also be applicable to the corresponding parameters of other candidate lasing media. One of the parameters is the number density of color centers, which is needed for designing an efficient laser. The other parameter is an optical-absorption cross section, which, as explained below, is needed for determining the number density. The present method represents an improvement over prior methods in which optical-absorption measurements have been used to determine absorption cross sections or number densities. Heretofore, in order to determine a number density from such measurements, it has been necessary to know the applicable absorption cross section; alternatively, to determine the absorption cross section from such measurements, it has been necessary to know the number density. If, as in this case, both the number density and the absorption cross section are initially unknown, then it is impossible to determine either parameter in the absence of additional information.

Inference of Epidemiological Dynamics Based on Simulated Phylogenies Using Birth-Death and Coalescent Models

PubMed Central

Boskova, Veronika; Bonhoeffer, Sebastian; Stadler, Tanja

2014-01-01

Quantifying epidemiological dynamics is crucial for understanding and forecasting the spread of an epidemic. The coalescent and the birth-death model are used interchangeably to infer epidemiological parameters from the genealogical relationships of the pathogen population under study, which in turn are inferred from the pathogen genetic sequencing data. To compare the performance of these widely applied models, we performed a simulation study. We simulated phylogenetic trees under the constant rate birth-death model and the coalescent model with a deterministic exponentially growing infected population. For each tree, we re-estimated the epidemiological parameters using both a birth-death and a coalescent based method, implemented as an MCMC procedure in BEAST v2.0. In our analyses that estimate the growth rate of an epidemic based on simulated birth-death trees, the point estimates such as the maximum a posteriori/maximum likelihood estimates are not very different. However, the estimates of uncertainty are very different. The birth-death model had a higher coverage than the coalescent model, i.e. contained the true value in the highest posterior density (HPD) interval more often (2–13% vs. 31–75% error). The coverage of the coalescent decreases with decreasing basic reproductive ratio and increasing sampling probability of infecteds. We hypothesize that the biases in the coalescent are due to the assumption of deterministic rather than stochastic population size changes. Both methods performed reasonably well when analyzing trees simulated under the coalescent. The methods can also identify other key epidemiological parameters as long as one of the parameters is fixed to its true value. In summary, when using genetic data to estimate epidemic dynamics, our results suggest that the birth-death method will be less sensitive to population fluctuations of early outbreaks than the coalescent method that assumes a deterministic exponentially growing infected

The Research and Implementation of Vehicle Bluetooth Hands-free Devices Key Parameters Downloading Algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xiao-bo; Wang, Zhi-xue; Li, Jian-xin; Ma, Jian-hui; Li, Yang; Li, Yan-qiang

In order to facilitate Bluetooth function realization and information can be effectively tracked in the process of production, the vehicle Bluetooth hands-free devices need to download such key parameters as Bluetooth address, CVC license and base plate numbers, etc. Therefore, it is the aim to search simple and effective methods to download parameters for each vehicle Bluetooth hands-free device, and to control and record the use of parameters. In this paper, by means of Bluetooth Serial Peripheral Interface programmer device, the parallel port is switched to SPI. The first step is to download parameters is simulating SPI with the parallel port. To perform SPI function, operating the parallel port in accordance with the SPI timing. The next step is to achieve SPI data transceiver functions according to the programming parameters of options. Utilizing the new method, downloading parameters is fast and accurate. It fully meets vehicle Bluetooth hands-free devices production requirements. In the production line, it has played a large role.

Effect of the Key Mixture Parameters on Shrinkage of Reactive Powder Concrete

PubMed Central

Zubair, Ahmed

2014-01-01

Reactive powder concrete (RPC) mixtures are reported to have excellent mechanical and durability characteristics. However, such concrete mixtures having high amount of cementitious materials may have high early shrinkage causing cracking of concrete. In the present work, an attempt has been made to study the simultaneous effects of three key mixture parameters on shrinkage of the RPC mixtures. Considering three different levels of the three key mixture factors, a total of 27 mixtures of RPC were prepared according to 33 factorial experiment design. The specimens belonging to all 27 mixtures were monitored for shrinkage at different ages over a total period of 90 days. The test results were plotted to observe the variation of shrinkage with time and to see the effects of the key mixture factors. The experimental data pertaining to 90-day shrinkage were used to conduct analysis of variance to identify significance of each factor and to obtain an empirical equation correlating the shrinkage of RPC with the three key mixture factors. The rate of development of shrinkage at early ages was higher. The water to binder ratio was found to be the most prominent factor followed by cement content with the least effect of silica fume content. PMID:25050395

Effect of the key mixture parameters on shrinkage of reactive powder concrete.

PubMed

Ahmad, Shamsad; Zubair, Ahmed; Maslehuddin, Mohammed

2014-01-01

Reactive powder concrete (RPC) mixtures are reported to have excellent mechanical and durability characteristics. However, such concrete mixtures having high amount of cementitious materials may have high early shrinkage causing cracking of concrete. In the present work, an attempt has been made to study the simultaneous effects of three key mixture parameters on shrinkage of the RPC mixtures. Considering three different levels of the three key mixture factors, a total of 27 mixtures of RPC were prepared according to 3(3) factorial experiment design. The specimens belonging to all 27 mixtures were monitored for shrinkage at different ages over a total period of 90 days. The test results were plotted to observe the variation of shrinkage with time and to see the effects of the key mixture factors. The experimental data pertaining to 90-day shrinkage were used to conduct analysis of variance to identify significance of each factor and to obtain an empirical equation correlating the shrinkage of RPC with the three key mixture factors. The rate of development of shrinkage at early ages was higher. The water to binder ratio was found to be the most prominent factor followed by cement content with the least effect of silica fume content.

Invited commentary: do-it-yourself modern epidemiology--at last!

PubMed

Morabia, Alfredo

2014-10-01

In this issue of the Journal, Keyes and Galea (Am J Epidemiol. 2014;180(7):661-668) propose "7 foundational steps" for introducing epidemiologic methods and concepts to beginners. Keyes and Galea's credo is that the methododological and conceptual components that comprise epidemiology, today scattered in textbook chapters, come together as an integrated and coherent methodological corpus in the process of designing studies. Thus, they expound, the process of designing studies should be the core of teaching epidemiology. Two aspects of their 7-steps-to-epidemiology, do-it-yourself user manual stand out as novel: 1) the approach, because of its emphasis on modern epidemiology's causal framework of a dynamic population in a steady state evolving across time, and 2) the ambition to teach modern epidemiology in introductory courses, instead of the popular mix of classical and modern epidemiology that is often used today to keep introductory courses simple. Both aspects are of potentially great significance for our discipline. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Sequential weighted Wiener estimation for extraction of key tissue parameters in color imaging: a phantom study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Shuo; Lin, Xiaoqian; Zhu, Caigang; Liu, Quan

2014-12-01

Key tissue parameters, e.g., total hemoglobin concentration and tissue oxygenation, are important biomarkers in clinical diagnosis for various diseases. Although point measurement techniques based on diffuse reflectance spectroscopy can accurately recover these tissue parameters, they are not suitable for the examination of a large tissue region due to slow data acquisition. The previous imaging studies have shown that hemoglobin concentration and oxygenation can be estimated from color measurements with the assumption of known scattering properties, which is impractical in clinical applications. To overcome this limitation and speed-up image processing, we propose a method of sequential weighted Wiener estimation (WE) to quickly extract key tissue parameters, including total hemoglobin concentration (CtHb), hemoglobin oxygenation (StO2), scatterer density (α), and scattering power (β), from wide-band color measurements. This method takes advantage of the fact that each parameter is sensitive to the color measurements in a different way and attempts to maximize the contribution of those color measurements likely to generate correct results in WE. The method was evaluated on skin phantoms with varying CtHb, StO2, and scattering properties. The results demonstrate excellent agreement between the estimated tissue parameters and the corresponding reference values. Compared with traditional WE, the sequential weighted WE shows significant improvement in the estimation accuracy. This method could be used to monitor tissue parameters in an imaging setup in real time.

Using a Functional Simulation of Crisis Management to Test the C2 Agility Model Parameters on Key Performance Variables

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-06-01

1 18th ICCRTS Using a Functional Simulation of Crisis Management to Test the C2 Agility Model Parameters on Key Performance Variables...AND SUBTITLE Using a Functional Simulation of Crisis Management to Test the C2 Agility Model Parameters on Key Performance Variables 5a. CONTRACT...command in crisis management. C2 Agility Model Agility can be conceptualized at a number of different levels; for instance at the team

Determination of key parameters of vector multifractal vector fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schertzer, D. J. M.; Tchiguirinskaia, I.

2017-12-01

For too long time, multifractal analyses and simulations have been restricted to scalar-valued fields (Schertzer and Tchiguirinskaia, 2017a,b). For instance, the wind velocity multifractality has been mostly analysed in terms of scalar structure functions and with the scalar energy flux. This restriction has had the unfortunate consequences that multifractals were applicable to their full extent in geophysics, whereas it has inspired them. Indeed a key question in geophysics is the complexity of the interactions between various fields or they components. Nevertheless, sophisticated methods have been developed to determine the key parameters of scalar valued fields. In this communication, we first present the vector extensions of the universal multifractal analysis techniques to multifractals whose generator belong to a Levy-Clifford algebra (Schertzer and Tchiguirinskaia, 2015). We point out further extensions noting the increased complexity. For instance, the (scalar) index of multifractality becomes a matrice. Schertzer, D. and Tchiguirinskaia, I. (2015) `Multifractal vector fields and stochastic Clifford algebra', Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 25(12), p. 123127. doi: 10.1063/1.4937364. Schertzer, D. and Tchiguirinskaia, I. (2017) `An Introduction to Multifractals and Scale Symmetry Groups', in Ghanbarian, B. and Hunt, A. (eds) Fractals: Concepts and Applications in Geosciences. CRC Press, p. (in press). Schertzer, D. and Tchiguirinskaia, I. (2017b) `Pandora Box of Multifractals: Barely Open ?', in Tsonis, A. A. (ed.) 30 Years of Nonlinear Dynamics in Geophysics. Berlin: Springer, p. (in press).

Parameter optimization in biased decoy-state quantum key distribution with both source errors and statistical fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Jian-Rong; Li, Jian; Zhang, Chun-Mei; Wang, Qin

2017-10-01

The decoy-state method has been widely used in commercial quantum key distribution (QKD) systems. In view of the practical decoy-state QKD with both source errors and statistical fluctuations, we propose a universal model of full parameter optimization in biased decoy-state QKD with phase-randomized sources. Besides, we adopt this model to carry out simulations of two widely used sources: weak coherent source (WCS) and heralded single-photon source (HSPS). Results show that full parameter optimization can significantly improve not only the secure transmission distance but also the final key generation rate. And when taking source errors and statistical fluctuations into account, the performance of decoy-state QKD using HSPS suffered less than that of decoy-state QKD using WCS.

Assessment of chronic kidney disease using skin texture as a key parameter: for South Indian population.

PubMed

Udhayarasu, Madhanlal; Ramakrishnan, Kalpana; Periasamy, Soundararajan

2017-12-01

Periodical monitoring of renal function, specifically for subjects with history of diabetic or hypertension would prevent them from entering into chronic kidney disease (CKD) condition. The recent increase in numbers may be due to food habits or lack of physical exercise, necessitates a rapid kidney function monitoring system. Presently, it is determined by evaluating glomerular filtration rate (GFR) that is mainly dependent on serum creatinine value and demographic parameters and ethnic value. Attempted here is to develop ethnic parameter based on skin texture for every individual. This value when used in GFR computation, the results are much agreeable with GFR obtained through standard modification of diet in renal disease and CKD epidemiology collaboration equations. Once correlation between CKD and skin texture is established, classification tool using artificial neural network is built to categorise CKD level based on demographic values and parameter obtained through skin texture (without using creatinine). This network when tested gives almost at par results with the network that is trained with demographic and creatinine values. The results of this Letter demonstrate the possibility of non-invasively determining kidney function and hence for making a device that would readily assess the kidney function even at home.

Key Parameters for Operator Diagnosis of BWR Plant Condition during a Severe Accident

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Clayton, Dwight A.; Poore, III, Willis P.

2015-01-01

The objective of this research is to examine the key information needed from nuclear power plant instrumentation to guide severe accident management and mitigation for boiling water reactor (BWR) designs (specifically, a BWR/4-Mark I), estimate environmental conditions that the instrumentation will experience during a severe accident, and identify potential gaps in existing instrumentation that may require further research and development. This report notes the key parameters that instrumentation needs to measure to help operators respond to severe accidents. A follow-up report will assess severe accident environmental conditions as estimated by severe accident simulation model analysis for a specific US BWR/4-Markmore » I plant for those instrumentation systems considered most important for accident management purposes.« less

Crop Damage by Primates: Quantifying the Key Parameters of Crop-Raiding Events

PubMed Central

Wallace, Graham E.; Hill, Catherine M.

2012-01-01

Human-wildlife conflict often arises from crop-raiding, and insights regarding which aspects of raiding events determine crop loss are essential when developing and evaluating deterrents. However, because accounts of crop-raiding behaviour are frequently indirect, these parameters are rarely quantified or explicitly linked to crop damage. Using systematic observations of the behaviour of non-human primates on farms in western Uganda, this research identifies number of individuals raiding and duration of raid as the primary parameters determining crop loss. Secondary factors include distance travelled onto farm, age composition of the raiding group, and whether raids are in series. Regression models accounted for greater proportions of variation in crop loss when increasingly crop and species specific. Parameter values varied across primate species, probably reflecting differences in raiding tactics or perceptions of risk, and thereby providing indices of how comfortable primates are on-farm. Median raiding-group sizes were markedly smaller than the typical sizes of social groups. The research suggests that key parameters of raiding events can be used to measure the behavioural impacts of deterrents to raiding. Furthermore, farmers will benefit most from methods that discourage raiding by multiple individuals, reduce the size of raiding groups, or decrease the amount of time primates are on-farm. This study demonstrates the importance of directly relating crop loss to the parameters of raiding events, using systematic observations of the behaviour of multiple primate species. PMID:23056378

Resilience of Key Biological Parameters of the Senegalese Flat Sardinella to Overfishing and Climate Change.

PubMed

Ba, Kamarel; Thiaw, Modou; Lazar, Najih; Sarr, Alassane; Brochier, Timothée; Ndiaye, Ismaïla; Faye, Alioune; Sadio, Oumar; Panfili, Jacques; Thiaw, Omar Thiom; Brehmer, Patrice

2016-01-01

The stock of the Senegalese flat sardinella, Sardinella maderensis, is highly exploited in Senegal, West Africa. Its growth and reproduction parameters are key biological indicators for improving fisheries management. This study reviewed these parameters using landing data from small-scale fisheries in Senegal and literature information dated back more than 25 years. Age was estimated using length-frequency data to calculate growth parameters and assess the growth performance index. With global climate change there has been an increase in the average sea surface temperature along the Senegalese coast but the length-weight parameters, sex ratio, size at first sexual maturity, period of reproduction and condition factor of S. maderensis have not changed significantly. The above parameters of S. maderensis have hardly changed, despite high exploitation and fluctuations in environmental conditions that affect the early development phases of small pelagic fish in West Africa. This lack of plasticity of the species regarding of the biological parameters studied should be considered when planning relevant fishery management plans.

Epidemiology and the Tobacco Epidemic: How Research on Tobacco and Health Shaped Epidemiology.

PubMed

Samet, Jonathan M

2016-03-01

In this article, I provide a perspective on the tobacco epidemic and epidemiology, describing the impact of the tobacco-caused disease epidemic on the field of epidemiology. Although there is an enormous body of epidemiologic evidence on the associations of smoking with health, little systematic attention has been given to how decades of research have affected epidemiology and its practice. I address the many advances that resulted from epidemiologic research on smoking and health, such as demonstration of the utility of observational designs and important parameters (the odds ratio and the population attributable risk), guidelines for causal inference, and systematic review approaches. I also cover unintended and adverse consequences for the field, including the strategy of doubt creation and the recruitment of epidemiologists by the tobacco industry to serve its mission. The paradigm of evidence-based action for addressing noncommunicable diseases began with the need to address the epidemic of tobacco-caused disease, an imperative for action documented by epidemiologic research. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Recruiting minorities into the profession of epidemiology. Surveying the applicants' mail. American College of Epidemiology Committee on Minority Affairs.

PubMed

Morssink, C B; Kumanyika, S; Tell, G S; Schoenbach, V J

1996-01-01

The underrepresentation in epidemiology of members of racial/ethnic minority groups is greater than in medicine and health fields in general. Using printed recruitment materials, we evaluated the impression that epidemiology programs might make on prospective minority students. Mainstream recruitment materials were solicited from all identifiable U.S. epidemiology programs (n = 70) by requesting copies of typical mailings to prospective students. Of 51 respondents, 46 sent materials that could be analyzed by tabulating and evaluating minority-related content in text and pictures. Materials reflected a generally low-key approach to epidemiology student recruitment. Most minority-related text referred to affirmative action or financial aid and was at the school level rather than specific to the epidemiology programs. Few minority-related epidemiology course titles or research interests were identified. We recommend including more information about epidemiology and its relevance to minority health in mainstream recruitment materials as one possible strategy for increasing the number of minority applicants.

Teaching Epidemiology at the Undergraduate Level: Considerations and Approaches.

PubMed

Goldmann, Emily; Stark, James H; Kapadia, Farzana; McQueen, Matthew B

2018-06-01

The rapid growth in undergraduate public health education has offered training in epidemiology to an increasing number of undergraduate students. Epidemiology courses introduce undergraduate students to a population health perspective and provide opportunities for these students to build essential skills and competencies such as ethical reasoning, teamwork, comprehension of scientific methods, critical thinking, quantitative and information literacy, ability to analyze public health information, and effective writing and oral communication. Taking a varied approach and incorporating active learning and assessment strategies can help engage students in the material, improve comprehension of key concepts, and further develop key competencies. In this commentary, we present examples of how epidemiology may be taught in the undergraduate setting. Evaluation of these approaches and others would be a valuable next step.

A Bayesian Framework for Coupled Estimation of Key Unknown Parameters of Land Water and Energy Balance Equations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farhadi, L.; Abdolghafoorian, A.

2015-12-01

The land surface is a key component of climate system. It controls the partitioning of available energy at the surface between sensible and latent heat, and partitioning of available water between evaporation and runoff. Water and energy cycle are intrinsically coupled through evaporation, which represents a heat exchange as latent heat flux. Accurate estimation of fluxes of heat and moisture are of significant importance in many fields such as hydrology, climatology and meteorology. In this study we develop and apply a Bayesian framework for estimating the key unknown parameters of terrestrial water and energy balance equations (i.e. moisture and heat diffusion) and their uncertainty in land surface models. These equations are coupled through flux of evaporation. The estimation system is based on the adjoint method for solving a least-squares optimization problem. The cost function consists of aggregated errors on state (i.e. moisture and temperature) with respect to observation and parameters estimation with respect to prior values over the entire assimilation period. This cost function is minimized with respect to parameters to identify models of sensible heat, latent heat/evaporation and drainage and runoff. Inverse of Hessian of the cost function is an approximation of the posterior uncertainty of parameter estimates. Uncertainty of estimated fluxes is estimated by propagating the uncertainty for linear and nonlinear function of key parameters through the method of First Order Second Moment (FOSM). Uncertainty analysis is used in this method to guide the formulation of a well-posed estimation problem. Accuracy of the method is assessed at point scale using surface energy and water fluxes generated by the Simultaneous Heat and Water (SHAW) model at the selected AmeriFlux stations. This method can be applied to diverse climates and land surface conditions with different spatial scales, using remotely sensed measurements of surface moisture and temperature states

The tale wagged by the DAG: broadening the scope of causal inference and explanation for epidemiology.

PubMed

Krieger, Nancy; Davey Smith, George

2016-12-01

'Causal inference', in 21st century epidemiology, has notably come to stand for a specific approach, one focused primarily on counterfactual and potential outcome reasoning and using particular representations, such as directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) and Bayesian causal nets. In this essay, we suggest that in epidemiology no one causal approach should drive the questions asked or delimit what counts as useful evidence. Robust causal inference instead comprises a complex narrative, created by scientists appraising, from diverse perspectives, different strands of evidence produced by myriad methods. DAGs can of course be useful, but should not alone wag the causal tale. To make our case, we first address key conceptual issues, after which we offer several concrete examples illustrating how the newly favoured methods, despite their strengths, can also: (i) limit who and what may be deemed a 'cause', thereby narrowing the scope of the field; and (ii) lead to erroneous causal inference, especially if key biological and social assumptions about parameters are poorly conceived, thereby potentially causing harm. As an alternative, we propose that the field of epidemiology consider judicious use of the broad and flexible framework of 'inference to the best explanation', an approach perhaps best developed by Peter Lipton, a philosopher of science who frequently employed epidemiologically relevant examples. This stance requires not only that we be open to being pluralists about both causation and evidence but also that we rise to the challenge of forging explanations that, in Lipton's words, aspire to 'scope, precision, mechanism, unification and simplicity'. © The Author 2016; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

A systemic study on key parameters affecting nanocomposite coatings on magnesium substrates.

PubMed

Johnson, Ian; Wang, Sebo Michelle; Silken, Christine; Liu, Huinan

2016-05-01

Nanocomposite coatings offer multiple functions simultaneously to improve the interfacial properties of magnesium (Mg) alloys for skeletal implant applications, e.g., controlling the degradation rate of Mg substrates, improving bone cell functions, and providing drug delivery capability. However, the effective service time of nanocomposite coatings may be limited due to their early delamination from the Mg-based substrates. Therefore, the objective of this study was to address the delamination issue of nanocomposite coatings, improve the coating properties for reducing the degradation of Mg-based substrates, and thus improve their cytocompatibility with bone marrow derived mesenchymal stem cells (BMSCs). The surface conditions of the substrates, polymer component type of the nanocomposite coatings, and post-deposition processing are the key parameters that contribute to the efficacy of the nanocomposite coatings in regulating substrate degradation and bone cell responses. Specifically, the effects of metallic surface versus alkaline heat-treated hydroxide surface of the substrates on coating quality were investigated. For the nanocomposite coatings, nanophase hydroxyapatite (nHA) was dispersed in three types of biodegradable polymers, i.e., poly(lactic-co-glycolic acid) (PLGA), poly(l-lactic acid) (PLLA), or poly(caprolactone) (PCL) to determine which polymer component could provide integrated properties for slowest Mg degradation. The nanocomposite coatings with or without post-deposition processing, i.e., melting, annealing, were compared to determine which processing route improved the properties of the nanocomposite coatings most significantly. The results showed that optimizing the coating processes addressed the delamination issue. The melted then annealed nHA/PCL coating on the metallic Mg substrates showed the slowest degradation and the best coating adhesion, among all the combinations of conditions studied; and, it improved the adhesion density of BMSCs

Epidemiology: Then and Now.

PubMed

Kuller, Lewis H

2016-03-01

Twenty-five years ago, on the 75th anniversary of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, I noted that epidemiologic research was moving away from the traditional approaches used to investigate "epidemics" and their close relationship with preventive medicine. Twenty-five years later, the role of epidemiology as an important contribution to human population research, preventive medicine, and public health is under substantial pressure because of the emphasis on "big data," phenomenology, and personalized medical therapies. Epidemiology is the study of epidemics. The primary role of epidemiology is to identify the epidemics and parameters of interest of host, agent, and environment and to generate and test hypotheses in search of causal pathways. Almost all diseases have a specific distribution in relation to time, place, and person and specific "causes" with high effect sizes. Epidemiology then uses such information to develop interventions and test (through clinical trials and natural experiments) their efficacy and effectiveness. Epidemiology is dependent on new technologies to evaluate improved measurements of host (genomics), epigenetics, identification of agents (metabolomics, proteomics), new technology to evaluate both physical and social environment, and modern methods of data collection. Epidemiology does poorly in studying anything other than epidemics and collections of numerators and denominators without specific hypotheses even with improved statistical methodologies. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Key Performance Parameter Driven Technology Goals for Electric Machines and Power Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bowman, Cheryl; Jansen, Ralph; Brown, Gerald; Duffy, Kirsten; Trudell, Jeffrey

2015-01-01

Transitioning aviation to low carbon propulsion is one of the crucial strategic research thrust and is a driver in the search for alternative propulsion system for advanced aircraft configurations. This work requires multidisciplinary skills coming from multiple entities. The feasibility of scaling up various electric drive system technologies to meet the requirements of a large commercial transport is discussed in terms of key parameters. Functional requirements are identified that impact the power system design. A breakeven analysis is presented to find the minimum allowable electric drive specific power and efficiency that can preserve the range, initial weight, operating empty weight, and payload weight of the base aircraft.

Turbulence study in the vicinity of piano key weir: relevance, instrumentation, parameters and methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiwari, Harinarayan; Sharma, Nayan

2017-05-01

This research paper focuses on the need of turbulence, instruments reliable to capture turbulence, different turbulence parameters and some advance methodology which can decompose various turbulence structures at different levels near hydraulic structures. Small-scale turbulence research has valid prospects in open channel flow. The relevance of the study is amplified as we introduce any hydraulic structure in the channel which disturbs the natural flow and creates discontinuity. To recover this discontinuity, the piano key weir (PKW) might be used with sloped keys. Constraints of empirical results in the vicinity of PKW necessitate extensive laboratory experiments with fair and reliable instrumentation techniques. Acoustic Doppler velocimeter was established to be best suited within range of some limitations using principal component analysis. Wavelet analysis is proposed to decompose the underlying turbulence structure in a better way.

An animated depiction of major depression epidemiology.

PubMed

Patten, Scott B

2007-06-08

Epidemiologic estimates are now available for a variety of parameters related to major depression epidemiology (incidence, prevalence, etc.). These estimates are potentially useful for policy and planning purposes, but it is first necessary that they be synthesized into a coherent picture of the epidemiology of the condition. Several attempts to do so have been made using mathematical modeling procedures. However, this information is not easy to communicate to users of epidemiological data (clinicians, administrators, policy makers). In this study, up-to-date data on major depression epidemiology were integrated using a discrete event simulation model. The mathematical model was animated in Virtual Reality Modeling Language (VRML) to create a visual, rather than mathematical, depiction of the epidemiology. Consistent with existing literature, the model highlights potential advantages of population health strategies that emphasize access to effective long-term treatment. The paper contains a web-link to the animation. Visual animation of epidemiological results may be an effective knowledge translation tool. In clinical practice, such animations could potentially assist with patient education and enhanced long-term compliance.

Epidemiological Data Management during an Outbreak of Ebola Virus Disease: Key Issues and Observations from Sierra Leone.

PubMed

Owada, Kei; Eckmanns, Tim; Kamara, Kande-Bure O'Bai; Olu, Olushayo Oluseun

2016-01-01

Sierra Leone experienced intense transmission of Ebola virus disease (EVD) from May 2014 to November 2015 during which a total of 8,704 confirmed cases and over 3,589 confirmed deaths were reported. Our field observation showed many issues in the EVD data management system, which may have contributed to the magnitude and long duration of the outbreak. In this perspective article, we explain the key issues with EVD data management in the field, and the resulting obstacles in analyzing key epidemiological indicators during the outbreak response work. Our observation showed that, during the latter part of the EVD outbreak, surveillance and data management improved at all levels in the country as compared to the earlier stage. We identified incomplete filling and late arrival of the case investigation forms at data management centers, difficulties in detecting double entries and merging identified double entries in the database, and lack of clear process of how death of confirmed cases in holding, treatment, and community care centers are reported to the data centers as some of challenges to effective data management. Furthermore, there was no consolidated database that captured and linked all data sources in a structured way. We propose development of a new application tool easily adaptable to new occurrences, regular data harmonization meetings between national and district data management teams, and establishment of a data quality audit system to assure good quality data as ways to improve EVD data management during future outbreaks.

Phylodynamic Inference with Kernel ABC and Its Application to HIV Epidemiology.

PubMed

Poon, Art F Y

2015-09-01

The shapes of phylogenetic trees relating virus populations are determined by the adaptation of viruses within each host, and by the transmission of viruses among hosts. Phylodynamic inference attempts to reverse this flow of information, estimating parameters of these processes from the shape of a virus phylogeny reconstructed from a sample of genetic sequences from the epidemic. A key challenge to phylodynamic inference is quantifying the similarity between two trees in an efficient and comprehensive way. In this study, I demonstrate that a new distance measure, based on a subset tree kernel function from computational linguistics, confers a significant improvement over previous measures of tree shape for classifying trees generated under different epidemiological scenarios. Next, I incorporate this kernel-based distance measure into an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) framework for phylodynamic inference. ABC bypasses the need for an analytical solution of model likelihood, as it only requires the ability to simulate data from the model. I validate this "kernel-ABC" method for phylodynamic inference by estimating parameters from data simulated under a simple epidemiological model. Results indicate that kernel-ABC attained greater accuracy for parameters associated with virus transmission than leading software on the same data sets. Finally, I apply the kernel-ABC framework to study a recent outbreak of a recombinant HIV subtype in China. Kernel-ABC provides a versatile framework for phylodynamic inference because it can fit a broader range of models than methods that rely on the computation of exact likelihoods. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.

Epidemiology and causation: a realist view.

PubMed Central

Renton, A

1994-01-01

In this paper the controversy over how to decide whether associations between factors and diseases are causal is placed within a description of the public health and scientific relevance of epidemiology. It is argued that the rise in popularity of the Popperian view of science, together with a perception of the aims of epidemiology as being to identify appropriate public health interventions, have focussed this debate on unresolved questions of inferential logic, leaving largely unanalysed the notions of causation and of disease at the ontological level. A realist ontology of causation of disease and pathogenesis is constructed within the framework of "scientific materialism", and is shown to provide a coherent basis from which to decide causes and to deal with problems of confounding and interaction in epidemiological research. It is argued that a realist analysis identifies a richer role for epidemiology as an integral part of an ontologically unified medical science. It is this unified medical science as a whole rather than epidemiological observation or experiment which decides causes and, in turn, provides a key element to the foundations of rational public health decision making. PMID:8138775

Glossary for econometrics and epidemiology.

PubMed

Gunasekara, F Imlach; Carter, K; Blakely, T

2008-10-01

Epidemiologists and econometricians are often interested in similar topics-socioeconomic position and health outcomes-but the different languages that epidemiologists and economists use to interpret and discuss their results can create a barrier to mutual communication. This glossary defines key terms used in econometrics and epidemiology to assist in bridging this gap.

A key factor to the spin parameter of uniformly rotating compact stars: crust structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qi, Bin; Zhang, Nai-Bo; Sun, Bao-Yuan; Wang, Shou-Yu; Gao, Jian-Hua

2016-04-01

We study the dimensionless spin parameter j ≡ cJ/(GM2) of different kinds of uniformly rotating compact stars, including traditional neutron stars, hyperonic neutron stars and hybrid stars, based on relativistic mean field theory and the MIT bag model. It is found that jmax ˜ 0.7, which had been suggested in traditional neutron stars, is sustained for hyperonic neutron stars and hybrid stars with M > 0.5 M⊙. Not the interior but rather the crust structure of the stars is a key factor to determine jmax for three kinds of selected compact stars. Furthermore, a universal formula j = 0.63(f/fK) - 0.42(f/fK)2 + 0.48(f/fK)3 is suggested to determine the spin parameter at any rotational frequency f smaller than the Keplerian frequency fK.

Dark energy and key physical parameters of clusters of galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bisnovatyi-Kogan, G. S.; Chernin, A. D.

2012-04-01

We study physics of clusters of galaxies embedded in the cosmic dark energy background. Under the assumption that dark energy is described by the cosmological constant, we show that the dynamical effects of dark energy are strong in clusters like the Virgo cluster. Specifically, the key physical parameters of the dark mater halos in clusters are determined by dark energy: (1) the halo cut-off radius is practically, if not exactly, equal to the zero-gravity radius at which the dark matter gravity is balanced by the dark energy antigravity; (2) the halo averaged density is equal to two densities of dark energy; (3) the halo edge (cut-off) density is the dark energy density with a numerical factor of the unity order slightly depending on the halo profile. The cluster gravitational potential well in which the particles of the dark halo (as well as galaxies and intracluster plasma) move is strongly affected by dark energy: the maximum of the potential is located at the zero-gravity radius of the cluster.

International Solar-Terrestrial Program Key Parameter Visualization Tool Data: USA_NASA_DDF_ISTP_KP_0139

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ocuna, M. H.; Ogilvie, K. W.; Baker, D. N.; Curtis, S. A.; Fairfield, D. H.; Mish, W. H.

1999-01-01

The Global Geospace Science Program (GGS) is designed to improve greatly the understanding of the flow of energy, mass and momentum in the solar-terrestrial environment with particular emphasis on "Geospace". The Global Geospace Science Program is the US contribution to the International Solar-Terrestrial Physics (ISTP) Science Initiative. This CD-ROM issue describes the WIND and POLAR spacecraft, the scientific experiments carried onboard, the Theoretical and Ground Based investigations which constitute the US Global Geospace Science Program and the ISTP Data Systems which support the data acquisition and analysis effort. The International Solar-Terrestrial Physics Program (ISTP) Key Parameter Visualization Tool (KPVT), provided on the CD-ROM, was developed at the ISTP Science Planning and Operations Facility (SPOF). The KPVT is a generic software package for visualizing the key parameter data produced from all ISTP missions, interactively and simultaneously. The tool is designed to facilitate correlative displays of ISTP data from multiple spacecraft and instruments, and thus the selection of candidate events and data quality control. The software, written in IDL, includes a graphical/widget user interface, and runs on many platforms, including various UNIX workstations, Alpha/Open VMS, Macintosh (680x0 and PowerPC), and PC/Windows NT, Windows 3.1, and Windows 95.

International Solar-Terrestrial Program Key Parameter Visualization Tool Data: USA_NASA_DDF_ISTP_KP_0192

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ocuna, M. H.; Ogilvie, K. W.; Baker, D. N.; Curtis, S. A.; Fairfield, D. H.; Mish, W. H.

2001-01-01

The Global Geospace Science Program (GGS) is designed to improve greatly the understanding of the flow of energy, mass and momentum in the solar-terrestrial environment with particular emphasis on "Geospace". The Global Geospace Science Program is the US contribution to the International Solar-Terrestrial Physics (ISTP) Science Initiative. This CD-ROM issue describes the WIND and POLAR spacecraft, the scientific experiments carried onboard, the Theoretical and Ground Based investigations which constitute the US Global Geospace Science Program and the ISTP Data Systems which support the data acquisition and analysis effort. The International Solar-Terrestrial Physics Program (ISTP) Key Parameter Visualization Tool (KPVT), provided on the CD-ROM, was developed at the ISTP Science Planning and Operations Facility (SPOF). The KPVT is a generic software package for visualizing the key parameter data produced from all ISTP missions, interactively and simultaneously. The tool is designed to facilitate correlative displays of ISTP data from multiple spacecraft and instruments, and thus the selection of candidate events and data quality control. The software, written in IDL, includes a graphical/widget user interface, and runs on many platforms, including various UNIX workstations, Alpha/Open VMS, Macintosh (680x0 and PowerPC), and PC/Windows NT, Windows 3.1, and Windows 95.

The epidemiology of pneumococcal carriage and infections in Malaysia.

PubMed

Le, Cheng-Foh; Jefferies, Johanna M; Yusof, Mohd Yasim Mohd; Sekaran, Shamala Devi; Clarke, Stuart C

2012-06-01

In Malaysia, various aspects of the epidemiology of pneumococcal carriage and disease remain largely unclear due to the lack of supporting data. Although a number of relevant studies have been documented, their individual discrete findings are not sufficient to inform experts on pneumococcal epidemiology at a national level. Therefore, in this review we aim to bring together and systematically evaluate the key information regarding pneumococcal disease epidemiology in Malaysia and provide a comprehensive overview of the data. Major aspects discussed include pneumococcal carriage, disease incidence and prevalence, age factors, invasiveness of pneumococci, serotypes, molecular epidemiology and antibiotic susceptibility. Penicillin resistance is increasingly prevalent and studies suggest that the majority of pneumococcal serotypes causing pneumococcal disease in Malaysia are covered by currently available conjugate vaccines. Continued surveillance is needed to provide a better understanding of pneumococcal epidemiology in Malaysia.

Networks and the Epidemiology of Infectious Disease

PubMed Central

Danon, Leon; Ford, Ashley P.; House, Thomas; Jewell, Chris P.; Keeling, Matt J.; Roberts, Gareth O.; Ross, Joshua V.; Vernon, Matthew C.

2011-01-01

The science of networks has revolutionised research into the dynamics of interacting elements. It could be argued that epidemiology in particular has embraced the potential of network theory more than any other discipline. Here we review the growing body of research concerning the spread of infectious diseases on networks, focusing on the interplay between network theory and epidemiology. The review is split into four main sections, which examine: the types of network relevant to epidemiology; the multitude of ways these networks can be characterised; the statistical methods that can be applied to infer the epidemiological parameters on a realised network; and finally simulation and analytical methods to determine epidemic dynamics on a given network. Given the breadth of areas covered and the ever-expanding number of publications, a comprehensive review of all work is impossible. Instead, we provide a personalised overview into the areas of network epidemiology that have seen the greatest progress in recent years or have the greatest potential to provide novel insights. As such, considerable importance is placed on analytical approaches and statistical methods which are both rapidly expanding fields. Throughout this review we restrict our attention to epidemiological issues. PMID:21437001

Ecogeographic Genetic Epidemiology

PubMed Central

Sloan, Chantel D.; Duell, Eric J.; Shi, Xun; Irwin, Rebecca; Andrew, Angeline S.; Williams, Scott M.; Moore, Jason H.

2009-01-01

Complex diseases such as cancer and heart disease result from interactions between an individual's genetics and environment, i.e. their human ecology. Rates of complex diseases have consistently demonstrated geographic patterns of incidence, or spatial “clusters” of increased incidence relative to the general population. Likewise, genetic subpopulations and environmental influences are not evenly distributed across space. Merging appropriate methods from genetic epidemiology, ecology and geography will provide a more complete understanding of the spatial interactions between genetics and environment that result in spatial patterning of disease rates. Geographic Information Systems (GIS), which are tools designed specifically for dealing with geographic data and performing spatial analyses to determine their relationship, are key to this kind of data integration. Here the authors introduce a new interdisciplinary paradigm, ecogeographic genetic epidemiology, which uses GIS and spatial statistical analyses to layer genetic subpopulation and environmental data with disease rates and thereby discern the complex gene-environment interactions which result in spatial patterns of incidence. PMID:19025788

Soluble CD26 levels and its association to epidemiologic parameters in a sample population.

PubMed

De Chiara, Loretta; Rodríguez-Piñeiro, Ana M; Cordero, Oscar J; Rodríguez-Berrocal, Francisco J; Ayude, Daniel; Rivas-Hervada And, Francisco J; de la Cadena, María Páez

2009-01-01

Previous studies have suggested the use of soluble CD26 (sCD26) as a tumour marker for the detection of colorectal cancer (CRC) and advanced adenomas. The aim of this study was to assess the sCD26 concentration in a large cohort to evaluate its association to epidemiologic parameters and CRC-related symptoms/pathologies. Serum samples were collected from 2,754 putatively healthy individuals with ages ranging from 30-65 years, and with personal or familial history of polyps, CRC and/or CR symptoms. sCD26 levels were measured by ELISA. No association was found between the sCD26 concentration and age (< 50 and 50), the personal or familial history of polyps or CRC, rectal bleeding, haemorrhoids or diverticula. However, sCD26 was related to non-inflammatory benign pathologies (excluding rectal bleeding, changes in bowel habits, haemorrhoids, diverticula) and to inflammatory benign pathologies. Our results confirm that the sCD26 can be easily offered and evaluated in a large cohort. Additionally, the validation of sCD26 as a tumour marker for screening and case-finding purposes requires a further comparison with an established non-invasive test like the faecal occult blood.

Conduct Disorder and Oppositional Defiant Disorder in a National Sample: Developmental Epidemiology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Maughan, Barbara; Rowe, Richard; Messer, Julie; Goodman, Robert; Meltzer, Howard

2004-01-01

Background: Despite an expanding epidemiological evidence base, uncertainties remain over key aspects of the epidemiology of the "antisocial" disorders in childhood and adolescence. Methods: We used cross-sectional data on a nationally representative sample of 10,438 5-15-year-olds drawn from the 1999 British Child Mental Health Survey…

A Seven-Year Retrospective View of a Course in Epidemiology and Biostatistics.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mulvihill, Michael N.; And Others

1980-01-01

Modifications of a course in epidemiology and biostatistics, designed to facilitate the presentation of difficult material in a clinically relevant manner, are described. Key strategies include seminar sessions devoted to methods of epidemiology and the critique of pairs of published studies, and the use of a course-specific syllabus. (JMD)

[Eco-epidemiology: towards epidemiology of complexity].

PubMed

Bizouarn, Philippe

2016-05-01

In order to solve public health problems posed by the epidemiology of risk factors centered on the individual and neglecting the causal processes linking the risk factors with the health outcomes, Mervyn Susser proposed a multilevel epidemiology called eco-epidemiology, addressing the interdependence of individuals and their connection with molecular, individual, societal, environmental levels of organization participating in the causal disease processes. The aim of this epidemiology is to integrate more than a level of organization in design, analysis and interpretation of health problems. After presenting the main criticisms of risk-factor epidemiology focused on the individual, we will try to show how eco-epidemiology and its development could help to understand the need for a broader and integrative epidemiology, in which studies designed to identify risk factors would be balanced by studies designed to answer other questions equally vital to public health. © 2016 médecine/sciences – Inserm.

Paradigms in epidemiology textbooks: in the footsteps of Thomas Kuhn.

PubMed Central

Bhopal, R

1999-01-01

This article attempts to contribute to the debate on the future of epidemiology by combining Thomas Kuhn's ideas on scientific paradigms with the author's observations on some epidemiology textbooks. The author's interpretations were based on his readings of Kuhn's The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, epidemiology textbooks, and papers on the future of epidemiology. Thomas Kuhn's view is that sciences mostly work with a single paradigm driven by exemplars of successful work, and that proposals for paradigm change are resisted. Sciences that are maturing or changing do not have a dominant paradigm. Epidemiology textbooks showed diversity in their concepts, content, and approach. Most exemplars related to etiologic research rather than public health practice. One key focus of the recent controversy regarding the role of epidemiology has been the increasing inability of epidemiology to solve socially based public health problems. Kuhn's views help explain the polarization of views expressed. Kuhn's philosophy of science offers insights into controversies such as whether a paradigm shift is needed or imminent and the gap between epidemiology and public health practice. Interaction between science philosophers, epidemiologists, and public health practitioners may be valuable. PMID:10432899

Paradigms in epidemiology textbooks: in the footsteps of Thomas Kuhn.

PubMed

Bhopal, R

1999-08-01

This article attempts to contribute to the debate on the future of epidemiology by combining Thomas Kuhn's ideas on scientific paradigms with the author's observations on some epidemiology textbooks. The author's interpretations were based on his readings of Kuhn's The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, epidemiology textbooks, and papers on the future of epidemiology. Thomas Kuhn's view is that sciences mostly work with a single paradigm driven by exemplars of successful work, and that proposals for paradigm change are resisted. Sciences that are maturing or changing do not have a dominant paradigm. Epidemiology textbooks showed diversity in their concepts, content, and approach. Most exemplars related to etiologic research rather than public health practice. One key focus of the recent controversy regarding the role of epidemiology has been the increasing inability of epidemiology to solve socially based public health problems. Kuhn's views help explain the polarization of views expressed. Kuhn's philosophy of science offers insights into controversies such as whether a paradigm shift is needed or imminent and the gap between epidemiology and public health practice. Interaction between science philosophers, epidemiologists, and public health practitioners may be valuable.

Spatial evolutionary epidemiology of spreading epidemics

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Most spatial models of host–parasite interactions either neglect the possibility of pathogen evolution or consider that this process is slow enough for epidemiological dynamics to reach an equilibrium on a fast timescale. Here, we propose a novel approach to jointly model the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of spatially structured host and pathogen populations. Starting from a multi-strain epidemiological model, we use a combination of spatial moment equations and quantitative genetics to analyse the dynamics of mean transmission and virulence in the population. A key insight of our approach is that, even in the absence of long-term evolutionary consequences, spatial structure can affect the short-term evolution of pathogens because of the build-up of spatial differentiation in mean virulence. We show that spatial differentiation is driven by a balance between epidemiological and genetic effects, and this quantity is related to the effect of kin competition discussed in previous studies of parasite evolution in spatially structured host populations. Our analysis can be used to understand and predict the transient evolutionary dynamics of pathogens and the emergence of spatial patterns of phenotypic variation. PMID:27798295

Spatial evolutionary epidemiology of spreading epidemics.

PubMed

Lion, S; Gandon, S

2016-10-26

Most spatial models of host-parasite interactions either neglect the possibility of pathogen evolution or consider that this process is slow enough for epidemiological dynamics to reach an equilibrium on a fast timescale. Here, we propose a novel approach to jointly model the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of spatially structured host and pathogen populations. Starting from a multi-strain epidemiological model, we use a combination of spatial moment equations and quantitative genetics to analyse the dynamics of mean transmission and virulence in the population. A key insight of our approach is that, even in the absence of long-term evolutionary consequences, spatial structure can affect the short-term evolution of pathogens because of the build-up of spatial differentiation in mean virulence. We show that spatial differentiation is driven by a balance between epidemiological and genetic effects, and this quantity is related to the effect of kin competition discussed in previous studies of parasite evolution in spatially structured host populations. Our analysis can be used to understand and predict the transient evolutionary dynamics of pathogens and the emergence of spatial patterns of phenotypic variation. © 2016 The Author(s).

International Solar-Terrestrial Program Key Parameter Visualization Tool Data: USA_NASA_DDF_ISTP_IM_KP_0185

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ocuna, M. H.; Ogilvie, K. W.; Baker, D. N.; Curtis, S. A.; Fairfield, D. H.; Mish, W. H.

2000-01-01

The Global Geospace Science Program (GGS) is designed to improve greatly the understanding of the flow of energy, mass and momentum in the solar-terrestrial environment with particular emphasis on "Geospace". The Global Geospace Science Program is the US contribution to the International Solar-Terrestrial Physics (ISTP) Science Initiative. This CD-ROM issue describes the WIND and POLAR spacecraft, the scientific experiments carried onboard, the Theoretical and Ground Based investigations which constitute the US Global Geospace Science Program and the ISTP Data Systems which support the data acquisition and analysis effort. The International Solar-Terrestrial Physics Program (ISTP) Key Parameter Visualization Tool (KPVT), provided on the CD-ROM, was developed at the ISTP Science Planning and Operations Facility (SPOF). The KPVT is a generic software package for visualizing the key parameter data produced from all ISTP missions, interactively and simultaneously. The tool is designed to facilitate correlative displays of ISTP data from multiple spacecraft and instruments, and thus the selection of candidate events and data quality control. The software, written in IDL, includes a graphical/widget user interface, and runs on many platforms, including various UNIX workstations, Alpha/Open VMS, Macintosh (680x0 and PowerPC), and PC/Windows NT, Windows 3.1, and Windows 95.

International Solar-Terrestrial Program Key Parameter Visualization Tool Data: USA_NASA_DDF_ISTP_IM_KP_0161

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ocuna, M. H.; Ogilvie, K. W.; Baker, D. N.; Curtis, S. A.; Fairfield, D. H.; Mish, W. H.

2000-01-01

The Global Geospace Science Program (GGS) is designed to improve greatly the understanding of the flow of energy, mass and momentum in the solar-terrestrial environment with particular emphasis on "Geospace". The Global Geospace Science Program is the US contribution to the International Solar-Terrestrial Physics (ISTP) Science Initiative. This CD-ROM issue describes the WIND and POLAR spacecraft, the scientific experiments carried onboard, the Theoretical and Ground Based investigations which constitute the US Global Geospace Science Program and the ISTP Data Systems which support the data acquisition and analysis effort. The International Solar-Terrestrial Physics Program (ISTP) Key Parameter Visualization Tool (KPVT), provided on the CD-ROM, was developed at the ISTP Science Planning and Operations Facility (SPOF). The KPVT is a generic software package for visualizing the key parameter data produced from all ISTP missions, interactively and simultaneously. The tool is designed to facilitate correlative displays of ISTP data from multiple spacecraft and instruments, and thus the selection of candidate events and data quality control. The software, written in IDL, includes a graphical/widget user interface, and runs on many platforms, including various UNIX workstations, Alpha/Open VMS, Macintosh (680x0 and PowerPC), and PC/Windows NT, Windows 3.1, and Windows 95.

Simulating Nationwide Pandemics: Applying the Multi-scale Epidemiologic Simulation and Analysis System to Human Infectious Diseases

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dombroski, M; Melius, C; Edmunds, T

2008-09-24

This study uses the Multi-scale Epidemiologic Simulation and Analysis (MESA) system developed for foreign animal diseases to assess consequences of nationwide human infectious disease outbreaks. A literature review identified the state of the art in both small-scale regional models and large-scale nationwide models and characterized key aspects of a nationwide epidemiological model. The MESA system offers computational advantages over existing epidemiological models and enables a broader array of stochastic analyses of model runs to be conducted because of those computational advantages. However, it has only been demonstrated on foreign animal diseases. This paper applied the MESA modeling methodology to humanmore » epidemiology. The methodology divided 2000 US Census data at the census tract level into school-bound children, work-bound workers, elderly, and stay at home individuals. The model simulated mixing among these groups by incorporating schools, workplaces, households, and long-distance travel via airports. A baseline scenario with fixed input parameters was run for a nationwide influenza outbreak using relatively simple social distancing countermeasures. Analysis from the baseline scenario showed one of three possible results: (1) the outbreak burned itself out before it had a chance to spread regionally, (2) the outbreak spread regionally and lasted a relatively long time, although constrained geography enabled it to eventually be contained without affecting a disproportionately large number of people, or (3) the outbreak spread through air travel and lasted a long time with unconstrained geography, becoming a nationwide pandemic. These results are consistent with empirical influenza outbreak data. The results showed that simply scaling up a regional small-scale model is unlikely to account for all the complex variables and their interactions involved in a nationwide outbreak. There are several limitations of the methodology that should be explored in

World Epidemiology Review, Number 105.

DTIC Science & Technology

1978-09-13

human , animal, and plant diseases, insect pests and control, sanitation conditions, immunization and public health programs. 17. Key Words and...Document Analysis. 17a. Descriptors Worldwide Clinical Medicine Environmental Biology Hygiene and Sanitation Microbiology 17b. Identifiers /Open...KIV. ••71) THIS FORM MAY BE REPRODUCED USCOMM-OC UM1-*T1 JPRS 71863 13 September 19 78 WORLD EPIDEMIOLOGY REVIEW No. 105 CONTENTS PAGE HUMAN

Human Health Effects of Trichloroethylene: Key Findings and Scientific Issues

PubMed Central

Jinot, Jennifer; Scott, Cheryl Siegel; Makris, Susan L.; Cooper, Glinda S.; Dzubow, Rebecca C.; Bale, Ambuja S.; Evans, Marina V.; Guyton, Kathryn Z.; Keshava, Nagalakshmi; Lipscomb, John C.; Barone, Stanley; Fox, John F.; Gwinn, Maureen R.; Schaum, John; Caldwell, Jane C.

2012-01-01

Background: In support of the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS), the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) completed a toxicological review of trichloroethylene (TCE) in September 2011, which was the result of an effort spanning > 20 years. Objectives: We summarized the key findings and scientific issues regarding the human health effects of TCE in the U.S. EPA’s toxicological review. Methods: In this assessment we synthesized and characterized thousands of epidemiologic, experimental animal, and mechanistic studies, and addressed several key scientific issues through modeling of TCE toxicokinetics, meta-analyses of epidemiologic studies, and analyses of mechanistic data. Discussion: Toxicokinetic modeling aided in characterizing the toxicological role of the complex metabolism and multiple metabolites of TCE. Meta-analyses of the epidemiologic data strongly supported the conclusions that TCE causes kidney cancer in humans and that TCE may also cause liver cancer and non-Hodgkin lymphoma. Mechanistic analyses support a key role for mutagenicity in TCE-induced kidney carcinogenicity. Recent evidence from studies in both humans and experimental animals point to the involvement of TCE exposure in autoimmune disease and hypersensitivity. Recent avian and in vitro mechanistic studies provided biological plausibility that TCE plays a role in developmental cardiac toxicity, the subject of substantial debate due to mixed results from epidemiologic and rodent studies. Conclusions: TCE is carcinogenic to humans by all routes of exposure and poses a potential human health hazard for noncancer toxicity to the central nervous system, kidney, liver, immune system, male reproductive system, and the developing embryo/fetus. PMID:23249866

Quantifying Key Climate Parameter Uncertainties Using an Earth System Model with a Dynamic 3D Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olson, R.; Sriver, R. L.; Goes, M. P.; Urban, N.; Matthews, D.; Haran, M.; Keller, K.

2011-12-01

Climate projections hinge critically on uncertain climate model parameters such as climate sensitivity, vertical ocean diffusivity and anthropogenic sulfate aerosol forcings. Climate sensitivity is defined as the equilibrium global mean temperature response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Vertical ocean diffusivity parameterizes sub-grid scale ocean vertical mixing processes. These parameters are typically estimated using Intermediate Complexity Earth System Models (EMICs) that lack a full 3D representation of the oceans, thereby neglecting the effects of mixing on ocean dynamics and meridional overturning. We improve on these studies by employing an EMIC with a dynamic 3D ocean model to estimate these parameters. We carry out historical climate simulations with the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) varying parameters that affect climate sensitivity, vertical ocean mixing, and effects of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols. We use a Bayesian approach whereby the likelihood of each parameter combination depends on how well the model simulates surface air temperature and upper ocean heat content. We use a Gaussian process emulator to interpolate the model output to an arbitrary parameter setting. We use Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to estimate the posterior probability distribution function (pdf) of these parameters. We explore the sensitivity of the results to prior assumptions about the parameters. In addition, we estimate the relative skill of different observations to constrain the parameters. We quantify the uncertainty in parameter estimates stemming from climate variability, model and observational errors. We explore the sensitivity of key decision-relevant climate projections to these parameters. We find that climate sensitivity and vertical ocean diffusivity estimates are consistent with previously published results. The climate sensitivity pdf is strongly affected by the prior assumptions, and by the scaling

Investigating the Martian Ionospheric Conductivity Using MAVEN Key Parameter Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aleryani, O.; Raftery, C. L.; Fillingim, M. O.; Fogle, A. L.; Dunn, P.; McFadden, J. P.; Connerney, J. E. P.; Mahaffy, P. R.; Ergun, R. E.; Andersson, L.

2015-12-01

Since the Viking orbiters and landers in 1976, the Martian atmospheric composition has scarcely been investigated. New data from the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN (MAVEN) mission, launched in 2013, allows for a thorough study of the electrically conductive nature of the Martian ionosphere. Determinations of the electrical conductivity will be made using in-situ atmospheric and ionospheric measurements, rather than scientific models for the first time. The objective of this project is to calculate the conductivity of the Martian atmosphere, whenever possible, throughout the trajectory of the MAVEN spacecraft. MAVEN instrumentation used includes the Neutral Gas and Ion Mass Spectrometer (NGIMS) for neutral species density, the Suprathermal and Thermal Ion Compositions (STATIC) for ion composition, temperature and density, the Magnetometer (MAG) for the magnetic field strength and the Langmuir Probe and Waves (LPW) for electron temperature and density. MAVEN key parameter data are used for these calculations. We compare our results with previous, model-based estimates of the conductivity. These results will allow us to quantify the flow of atmospheric electric currents which can be analyzed further for a deeper understanding of the Martian ionospheric electrodynamics, bringing us closer to understanding the mystery of the loss of the Martian atmosphere.

[Mathematical models and epidemiological analysis].

PubMed

Gerasimov, A N

2010-01-01

The limited use of mathematical simulation in epidemiology is due not only to the difficulty of monitoring the epidemic process and identifying its parameters but also to the application of oversimplified models. It is shown that realistic reproduction of actual morbidity dynamics requires taking into account heterogeneity and finiteness of the population and seasonal character of pathogen transmission mechanism.

Integrating machine learning to achieve an automatic parameter prediction for practical continuous-variable quantum key distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Weiqi; Huang, Peng; Peng, Jinye; Fan, Jianping; Zeng, Guihua

2018-02-01

For supporting practical quantum key distribution (QKD), it is critical to stabilize the physical parameters of signals, e.g., the intensity, phase, and polarization of the laser signals, so that such QKD systems can achieve better performance and practical security. In this paper, an approach is developed by integrating a support vector regression (SVR) model to optimize the performance and practical security of the QKD system. First, a SVR model is learned to precisely predict the time-along evolutions of the physical parameters of signals. Second, such predicted time-along evolutions are employed as feedback to control the QKD system for achieving the optimal performance and practical security. Finally, our proposed approach is exemplified by using the intensity evolution of laser light and a local oscillator pulse in the Gaussian modulated coherent state QKD system. Our experimental results have demonstrated three significant benefits of our SVR-based approach: (1) it can allow the QKD system to achieve optimal performance and practical security, (2) it does not require any additional resources and any real-time monitoring module to support automatic prediction of the time-along evolutions of the physical parameters of signals, and (3) it is applicable to any measurable physical parameter of signals in the practical QKD system.

Epidemiology of yaws: an update

PubMed Central

Kazadi, Walter M; Asiedu, Kingsley B; Agana, Nsiire; Mitjà, Oriol

2014-01-01

Yaws, a neglected tropical disease, is targeted for eradication by 2020 through large-scale mass-treatment programs of endemic communities. A key determinant for the success of the eradication campaign is good understanding of the disease epidemiology. We did a review of historical trends and new information from endemic countries, with the aim of assessing the state of knowledge on yaws disease burden. Transmission of yaws is now present in Africa, Asia, and the South Pacific. At least 12 countries are known to harbor yaws cases and 21 to 42 million people live in endemic areas. Between 2008 and 2012 more than 300,000 new cases were reported to the World Health Organization. Yaws presented high geographical variation within a country or region, high seasonality for incidence of active disease, and evidence that low standards of hygiene predispose to suffering of the disease. Key data issues include low levels of reporting, potential misdiagnosis, and scarce documentation on prevalence of asymptomatic infections. Currently available data most likely underestimates the magnitude of the disease burden. More effort is needed in order to refine accuracy of data currently being reported. A better characterization of the epidemiology of yaws globally is likely to positively impact on planning and implementation of yaws eradication. PMID:24729728

Transmission Parameters of the 2001 Foot and Mouth Epidemic in Great Britain

PubMed Central

Chis Ster, Irina; Ferguson, Neil M.

2007-01-01

Despite intensive ongoing research, key aspects of the spatial-temporal evolution of the 2001 foot and mouth disease (FMD) epidemic in Great Britain (GB) remain unexplained. Here we develop a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for estimating epidemiological parameters of the 2001 outbreak for a range of simple transmission models. We make the simplifying assumption that infectious farms were completely observed in 2001, equivalent to assuming that farms that were proactively culled but not diagnosed with FMD were not infectious, even if some were infected. We estimate how transmission parameters varied through time, highlighting the impact of the control measures on the progression of the epidemic. We demonstrate statistically significant evidence for assortative contact patterns between animals of the same species. Predictive risk maps of the transmission potential in different geographic areas of GB are presented for the fitted models. PMID:17551582

Cancer and aging: Epidemiology and methodological challenges.

PubMed

Pedersen, Jacob K; Engholm, Gerda; Skytthe, Axel; Christensen, Kaare

2016-01-01

Epidemiological cancer data shed light on key questions within basic science, clinical medicine and public health. For decades, Denmark has had linkable health registers that contain individual level data on the entire population with virtually complete follow-up. This has enabled high quality studies of cancer epidemiology and minimized the challenges often faced in many countries, such as uncertain identification of the study base, age misreporting, and low validity of the cancer diagnoses. However, methodological challenges still remain to be addressed, especially in cancer epidemiology studies among the elderly and the oldest-old. For example, a characteristic pattern for many cancer types is that the incidence increases up to a maximum at about ages 75-90 years and is then followed by a decline or a leveling off at the oldest ages. It has been suggested that the oldest individuals may be asymptomatic, or even insusceptible to cancer. An alternative interpretation is that this pattern is an artifact due to lower diagnostic intensity among the elderly and oldest-old caused by higher levels of co-morbidities in this age group. Currently, the available cancer epidemiology data are not able to provide clear evidence for any of these hypotheses.

Malaria epidemiology and economics: the effect of delayed immune acquisition on the cost-effectiveness of insecticide-treated bednets.

PubMed Central

Guyatt, H L; Snow, R W; Evans, D B

1999-01-01

An understanding of the epidemiology of a disease is central in evaluating the health impact and cost-effectiveness of control interventions. The epidemiology of life-threatening malaria is receiving renewed interest, with concerns that the implementation of preventive measures such as insecticide-treated bednets (ITNs) while protecting young children might in fact increase the risks of mortality and morbidity in older ages by delaying the acquisition of functional immunity. This paper aims to illustrate how a combined approach of epidemiology and economics can be used to (i) explore the long-term impact of changes in epidemiological profiles, and (ii) identify those variables that are critical in determining whether an intervention will be an efficient use of resources. The key parameters for determining effectiveness are the protective efficacy of ITNs (reduction in all-cause mortality), the malaria attributable mortality and the increased malaria-specific mortality risk due to delays in the acquisition of functional immunity. In particular, the analysis demonstrates that delayed immune acquisition is not a problem per se, but that the critical issue is whether it occurs immediately following the implementation of an ITN programme or whether it builds up slowly over time. In the 'worst case' scenario where ITNs immediately increase malaria-specific mortality due to reduced immunity, the intervention might actually cost lives. In other words, it might be better to not use ITNs. On the other hand, if reduced immunity takes two years to develop, ITNs would still fall into the category of excellent value for money compared to other health interventions, saving a year of life (YLL) at a cost of between US$25-30. These types of calculations are important in identifying the parameters which field researchers should be seeking to measure to address the important question of the net impact of delaying the acquisition of immunity through preventive control measures. PMID

A no-key-exchange secure image sharing scheme based on Shamir's three-pass cryptography protocol and the multiple-parameter fractional Fourier transform.

PubMed

Lang, Jun

2012-01-30

In this paper, we propose a novel secure image sharing scheme based on Shamir's three-pass protocol and the multiple-parameter fractional Fourier transform (MPFRFT), which can safely exchange information with no advance distribution of either secret keys or public keys between users. The image is encrypted directly by the MPFRFT spectrum without the use of phase keys, and information can be shared by transmitting the encrypted image (or message) three times between users. Numerical simulation results are given to verify the performance of the proposed algorithm.

A French crop-exposure matrix for use in epidemiological studies on pesticides: PESTIMAT.

PubMed

Baldi, Isabelle; Carles, Camille; Blanc-Lapierre, Audrey; Fabbro-Peray, Pascale; Druet-Cabanac, Michel; Boutet-Robinet, Elisa; Soulat, Jean-Marc; Bouvier, Ghislaine; Lebailly, Pierre

2017-01-01

Pesticide exposure assessment is a key methodological issue for epidemiological studies. The history of pesticide has proven difficult to obtain from individuals' report because of the wide range of active ingredients (AIs). We developed a crop-exposure matrix, which intends to reconstitute parameters of pesticide exposure in France since 1950. PESTIMAT is composed of tables crossing crops and AIs by year and providing the following metrics: (1) probability (proportion of farmers having used the AIs); (2) frequency (number of treatment days); and (3) intensity (application rate of the AIs in kg/ha). Metrics were obtained by the combination of six sources: (i) registration information from the Agriculture Ministry; (ii) information from agricultural bodies on products marketed; (iii) agricultural recommendations by the Plant Health Protection body; (iv) treatment calendars provided by farmers; (v) data from associations of farmers; and (vi) data from the industry. To date, 529 AIs usable between 1950 and 2010 are included in PESTIMAT: 160 fungicides; 160 herbicides; and 209 insecticides. When combined with duration and determinants of intensity, the metrics in PESTIMAT will make it possible to calculate exposure scores and to search for dose-effect relationships, an important criterion for causality judgment in epidemiology.

["Group" and organization: a dimension of collaboration of anthropology and epidemiology].

PubMed

Song, Lei-ming; Wang, Ning

2012-04-01

"Group" is a key concept in epidemiological research and "organization" is a core concept in anthropology. Group takes focus on the specific characteristics of the subjects, while organization takes focus on the relationship between the objects. For the characteristics and relationship of the objects that interacting with each other, the two concepts could be complementary in specific studies, and this will be the basic dimension of Interdisciplinary collaboration of anthropology and epidemiology.

The High-Density Lipoprotein Puzzle: Why Classic Epidemiology, Genetic Epidemiology, and Clinical Trials Conflict?

PubMed

Rosenson, Robert S

2016-05-01

Classical epidemiology has established the incremental contribution of the high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol measure in the assessment of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk; yet, genetic epidemiology does not support a causal relationship between HDL cholesterol and the future risk of myocardial infarction. Therapeutic interventions directed toward cholesterol loading of the HDL particle have been based on epidemiological studies that have established HDL cholesterol as a biomarker of atherosclerotic cardiovascular risk. However, therapeutic interventions such as niacin, cholesteryl ester transfer protein inhibitors increase HDL cholesterol in patients treated with statins, but have repeatedly failed to reduce cardiovascular events. Statin therapy interferes with ATP-binding cassette transporter-mediated macrophage cholesterol efflux via miR33 and thus may diminish certain HDL functional properties. Unraveling the HDL puzzle will require continued technical advances in the characterization and quantification of multiple HDL subclasses and their functional properties. Key mechanistic criteria for clinical outcomes trials with HDL-based therapies include formation of HDL subclasses that improve the efficiency of macrophage cholesterol efflux and compositional changes in the proteome and lipidome of the HDL particle that are associated with improved antioxidant and anti-inflammatory properties. These measures require validation in genetic studies and clinical trials of HDL-based therapies on the background of statins. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Circular epidemiology.

PubMed

Kuller, L H

1999-11-01

Circular epidemiology can be defined as the continuation of specific types of epidemiologic studies beyond the point of reasonable doubt of the true existence of an important association or the absence of such an association. Circular epidemiology is an extreme example of studies of the consistency of associations. A basic problem for epidemiology is the lack of a systematic approach to acquiring new knowledge to reach a goal of improving public health and preventive medicine. For epidemiologists, research support unfortunately is biased toward the continued study of already proven hypotheses. Circular epidemiology, however, freezes at one point in the evolution of epidemiologic studies, failing to move from descriptive to analytical case-control and longitudinal studies, for example, to experimental, clinical trials. Good epidemiology journals are filled with very well-conducted epidemiologic studies that primarily repeat the obvious or are variations on the theme.

Cellular automata and epidemiological models with spatial dependence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuentes, M. A.; Kuperman, M. N.

We present a cellular automata model developed to study the evolution of an infectivity nucleus in several conditions and for two kinds of epidemiologically different diseases. We analyse the role of the model parameters, concerning the epidemiological and demographic aspects of the problem, and of the evolution rules in relation to the spread of such infectious diseases, the arising of periodic temporal modulations related to the infectivity and recovery fronts, and the evolution of travelling waves. Among the obtained results we find analogies to endemic situations and pandemics.

Ethics Guidelines in Environmental Epidemiology: Their Development and Challenges We Face.

PubMed

Kramer, Shira; Soskolne, Colin L

2017-06-01

This review integrates historical developments and key events in bringing ethics into epidemiology in general and into environmental epidemiology in particular. The goal is to provide context for and discern among the various approaches and motivations that drive the need for ethical conduct in support of the public interest. The need for ethics guidelines in epidemiology is different from developments in other biomedical-related fields by virtue of its focus on populations rather than on individuals. The need for ethics guidelines in environmental epidemiology as a subspecialty of epidemiology stems from the larger scale of its mission than that of epidemiology per se. Ethics guidelines in the field of environmental epidemiology have been established. They articulate not only the profession's core values and mission, but more specifically, they address the environmental epidemiologist's obligations to the participants in research, to colleagues, and to employers. They are the product of consensus, scholarship, and diligent stewardship over several decades. The next challenge is ensuring their value and impact. The forces that support professional and institutional success, and the power of special interests, are the major threats to achieving the goals of ethical conduct and research for the public good. In environmental epidemiology, these threats have global implications.

[Modelling the impact of vaccination on the epidemiology of varicella zoster virus].

PubMed

Bonmarin, I; Santa-Olalla, P; Lévy-Bruhl, D

2008-10-01

The soon to come the availability of a combined MMR-varicella vaccine has re-stimulated the debate around universal infant vaccination against varicella. In France, the incidence of varicella is estimated at about 700,000 cases per year, with approximately 3500 hospitalisations and 15-25 deaths, the latter mainly occurring in those over 15years. Vaccination would certainly decrease the overall incidence of the disease but concerns about vaccination leading to a shift in the average age at infection followed by an increase in incidence of severe cases and congenital varicella, still remain. In order to provide support for decision-making, a dynamic mathematical model of varicella virus transmission was used to predict the effect of different vaccination strategies and coverages on the epidemiology of varicella and zoster. A deterministic realistic age-structured model was adapted to the French situation. Epidemiological parameters were estimated from literature or surveillance data. Various vaccine coverages and vaccination strategies were investigated. A sensitivity analysis of varicella incidence predictions was performed to test the impact of changes in the vaccine parameters and age-specific mixing patterns. The model confirms that the overall incidence and morbidity of varicella would likely be reduced by mass vaccination of 12-month-old children. Whatever the coverage and the vaccine strategy, the vaccination will cause a shift in age distribution with, for vaccination coverage up to at least 80% in the base-case analysis, an increased morbidity among adults and pregnant women. However, the total number of deaths and hospitalisations from varicella is predicted to remain below that expected without vaccination. The model is very sensitive to the matrix of contacts used and to the parameters describing vaccine effectiveness. Zoster incidence will increase over a number of decades followed by a decline to below prevaccination levels. Mass varicella vaccination

Current Practices in Teaching Introductory Epidemiology: How We Got Here, Where to Go

PubMed Central

Keyes, Katherine M.; Galea, Sandro

2014-01-01

The number of students and disciplines requiring basic instruction in epidemiologic methods is growing. As a field, we now have a lexicon of epidemiologic terminology and particular methods that have developed and become canonical through the historical development of the field. Yet, many of our basic concepts remain elusive to some students, particularly those not pursuing a career in epidemiology. Further, disagreement and redundancy across basic terms limit their utility in teaching epidemiology. Many approaches to teaching epidemiology generally start with labeling key concepts and then move on to explain them. We submit that an approach grounded not in labels but in foundational concepts may offer a useful adjunct to introductory epidemiology education. We propose 7 foundational steps in conducting an epidemiologic study and provide examples of how these steps can be operationalized, using simple graphics that articulate how populations are defined, samples are selected, and individuals are followed to count cases. A reorganization of introductory epidemiology around core first principles may be an effective way forward for educating the next generation of public health scientists. PMID:25190677

[Molecular epidemiology in the epidemiological transition].

PubMed

Tapia-Conyer, R

1997-01-01

The epidemiological transition describes the changes in the health profile of populations where infectious diseases are substituted by chronic or non-communicable diseases. Even in industrialized countries, infectious diseases emerge as important public health problems and with a very important association with several type of neoplasm. Molecular epidemiology brings in new tools for the study of the epidemiological transition by discovering infectious agents as etiology of diseases, neither of both new. Much has been advanced in the understanding of the virulence and resistance mechanism of different strains, or improving the knowledge on transmission dynamics and dissemination pathways of infectious diseases. As to the non-communicable diseases, molecular epidemiology has enhanced the identification of endogenous risk factors link to alterations, molecular changes in genetic material, that will allow a more detail definition of risk and the identification of individual and groups at risk of several diseases. The potential impact of molecular epidemiology in other areas as environmental, lifestyles and nutritional areas are illustrated with several examples.

Effect of varying two key parameters in simulating evacuation for a dormitory in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lei, Wenjun; Li, Angui; Gao, Ran

2013-01-01

Student dormitories are both living and resting areas for students in their spare time. There are many small rooms in the dormitories. And the students are distributed densely in the dormitories. High occupant density is the main characteristic of student dormitories. Once there is an accident, such as fire or earthquake, the losses will be cruel. Computer evacuation models developed overseas are commonly applied in working out safety management schemes. The average minimum widths of corridor and exit are the two key parameters affecting the evacuation for the dormitory. The effect of varying these two parameters will be studied in this paper by taking a dormitory in our university as an example. Evacuation performance is predicted with the software FDS + Evac. The default values in the software are used and adjusted through a field survey. The effect of varying either of the two parameters is discussed. It is found that the simulated results agree well with the experimental results. From our study it seems that the evacuation time is not in proportion to the evacuation distance. And we also named a phenomenon of “the closer is not the faster”. For the building researched in this article, a corridor width of 3 m is the most appropriate. And the suitable exit width of the dormitory for evacuation is about 2.5 to 3 m. The number of people has great influence on the walking speed of people. The purpose of this study is to optimize the building, and to make the building in favor of personnel evacuation. Then the damage could be minimized.

3-D simulations of M9 earthquakes on the Cascadia Megathrust: Key parameters and uncertainty

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wirth, Erin; Frankel, Arthur; Vidale, John; Marafi, Nasser A.; Stephenson, William J.

2017-01-01

Geologic and historical records indicate that the Cascadia subduction zone is capable of generating large, megathrust earthquakes up to magnitude 9. The last great Cascadia earthquake occurred in 1700, and thus there is no direct measure on the intensity of ground shaking or specific rupture parameters from seismic recordings. We use 3-D numerical simulations to generate broadband (0-10 Hz) synthetic seismograms for 50 M9 rupture scenarios on the Cascadia megathrust. Slip consists of multiple high-stress drop subevents (~M8) with short rise times on the deeper portion of the fault, superimposed on a background slip distribution with longer rise times. We find a >4x variation in the intensity of ground shaking depending upon several key parameters, including the down-dip limit of rupture, the slip distribution and location of strong-motion-generating subevents, and the hypocenter location. We find that extending the down-dip limit of rupture to the top of the non-volcanic tremor zone results in a ~2-3x increase in peak ground acceleration for the inland city of Seattle, Washington, compared to a completely offshore rupture. However, our simulations show that allowing the rupture to extend to the up-dip limit of tremor (i.e., the deepest rupture extent in the National Seismic Hazard Maps), even when tapering the slip to zero at the down-dip edge, results in multiple areas of coseismic coastal uplift. This is inconsistent with coastal geologic evidence (e.g., buried soils, submerged forests), which suggests predominantly coastal subsidence for the 1700 earthquake and previous events. Defining the down-dip limit of rupture as the 1 cm/yr locking contour (i.e., mostly offshore) results in primarily coseismic subsidence at coastal sites. We also find that the presence of deep subevents can produce along-strike variations in subsidence and ground shaking along the coast. Our results demonstrate the wide range of possible ground motions from an M9 megathrust earthquake in

INTEGRATING EPIDEMIOLOGY AND TOXICOLOGY IN NEUROTOXICITY RISK ASSESSMENT.

EPA Science Inventory

This manuscript provides an overview of the use of data from toxicology and epidemiology studies for neurotoxicity risk assessment. Parameters such as the use of subjects, study designs, exposures, and measured outcomes are compared and contrasted. The main concern for use of d...

Assessing performance of feedlot operations using epidemiology.

PubMed

Corbin, Marilyn J; Griffin, Dee

2006-03-01

The progressive feedlot veterinarian must be well versed not only in individual production animal medicine, but also in population-based medicine. Feedlot health programs must be goal oriented, and evaluation of these goals is accomplished through diligent use of record systems and analytic evaluation of these record systems. Basic feedlot monitoring parameters include health and economic parameters in addition to the use of bench marking parameters between and among feed yards. When these parameters have significant changes, steps should be initiated to begin field investigations. Feedlot epidemiology uses several novel applications such as partial budgeting, risk assessment, and packing plant audits to provide scientifically sound and economically feasible solutions for the feeding industry.

Research Methods in Healthcare Epidemiology: Survey and Qualitative Research

PubMed Central

Safdar, Nasia; Abbo, Lilian M.; Knobloch, Mary Jo; Seo, Susan K.

2017-01-01

Surveys are one of the most frequently employed study designs in healthcare epidemiology research. Generally easier to undertake and less costly than many other study designs, surveys can be invaluable to gain insights into opinions and practices in large samples and may be descriptive and/or be used to test associations. In this context, qualitative research methods may complement this study design either at the survey development phase and/or at the interpretation/extension of results stage. This methods article focuses on key considerations for designing and deploying surveys in healthcare epidemiology and antibiotic stewardship, including identification of whether or not de novo survey development is necessary, ways to optimally lay out and display a survey, denominator measurement, discussion of biases to keep in mind particularly in research using surveys, and the role of qualitative research methods to complement surveys. We review examples of surveys in healthcare epidemiology and antimicrobial stewardship and review the pros and cons of methods used. A checklist is provided to help aid design and deployment of surveys in healthcare epidemiology and antimicrobial stewardship. PMID:27514583

At-line monitoring of key parameters of nisin fermentation by near infrared spectroscopy, chemometric modeling and model improvement.

PubMed

Guo, Wei-Liang; Du, Yi-Ping; Zhou, Yong-Can; Yang, Shuang; Lu, Jia-Hui; Zhao, Hong-Yu; Wang, Yao; Teng, Li-Rong

2012-03-01

An analytical procedure has been developed for at-line (fast off-line) monitoring of 4 key parameters including nisin titer (NT), the concentration of reducing sugars, cell concentration and pH during a nisin fermentation process. This procedure is based on near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy and Partial Least Squares (PLS). Samples without any preprocessing were collected at intervals of 1 h during fifteen batch of fermentations. These fermentation processes were implemented in 3 different 5 l fermentors at various conditions. NIR spectra of the samples were collected in 10 min. And then, PLS was used for modeling the relationship between NIR spectra and the key parameters which were determined by reference methods. Monte Carlo Partial Least Squares (MCPLS) was applied to identify the outliers and select the most efficacious methods for preprocessing spectra, wavelengths and the suitable number of latent variables (n (LV)). Then, the optimum models for determining NT, concentration of reducing sugars, cell concentration and pH were established. The correlation coefficients of calibration set (R (c)) were 0.8255, 0.9000, 0.9883 and 0.9581, respectively. These results demonstrated that this method can be successfully applied to at-line monitor of NT, concentration of reducing sugars, cell concentration and pH during nisin fermentation processes.

Applied Epidemiology and Public Health: Are We Training the Future Generations Appropriately?

PubMed Central

Brownson, Ross C.; Samet, Jonathan M.; Bensyl, Diana M.

2017-01-01

To extend the reach and relevance of epidemiology for public health practice, the science needs be broadened beyond etiologic research, to link more strongly with emerging technologies and to acknowledge key societal transformations. This new focus for epidemiology and its implications for epidemiologic training can be considered in the context of macro trends affecting society, including a greater focus on upstream causes of disease, shifting demographics, the Affordable Care Act and health care system reform, globalization, changing health communication environment, growing centrality of team and transdisciplinary science, emergence of translational sciences, greater focus on accountability, big data, informatics, high-throughput technologies (“omics”), privacy changes, and the evolving funding environment. This commentary describes existing approaches to and competencies for training in epidemiology, maps macro trends with competencies, highlights an example of competency-based education in the Epidemic Intelligence Service of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and suggests expanded and more dynamic training approaches. A re-examination of current approaches to epidemiologic training is needed. PMID:28038933

Scaling-up HIV responses with key populations in West Africa.

PubMed

Wheeler, Tisha; Wolf, R Cameron; Kapesa, Laurent; Cheng Surdo, Alison; Dallabetta, Gina

2015-03-01

Despite decades of HIV responses in pockets of West and Central Africa (WCA), the HIV response with key populations remains an understudied area. Recently, there has been a proliferation of studies highlighting epidemiologic and behavioral data that challenge attitudes of complacency among donors and country governments uncomfortable in addressing key populations. The articles in this series highlight new studies that provide a better understanding of the epidemiologic and structural burden facing key populations in the WCA region and how to improve responses through more effective targeting. Key populations face pervasive structural barriers including institutional and sexual violence and an intersection of stigma, criminalization, and marginalization as sexual minorities. Despite decades of smaller interventions that have shown the importance of integrated services for key populations, there remains incongruent provision of outreach or testing or family planning pointing to sustained risk. There remains an incongruent resource provision for key populations where they shoulder the burden of HIV and their access to services alone could turn around HIV epidemics within the region. These proximal and distal determinants must be addressed in regional efforts, led by the community, and resourced for scale, targeting those most at risk for the acquisition and transmission of HIV. This special issue builds the knowledge base for the region focusing on interventions that remove barriers to service access including treatment uptake for those living with HIV. Better analysis and use of data for strategic planning are shown to lead to more effective targeting of prevention, care, and HIV treatment programs with key populations. These articles further demonstrate the immediate need for comprehensive action to address HIV among key populations throughout the WCA region.

Molecular epidemiology, and possible real-world applications in breast cancer.

PubMed

Ito, Hidemi; Matsuo, Keitaro

2016-01-01

Gene-environment interaction, a key idea in molecular epidemiology, has enabled the development of personalized medicine. This concept includes personalized prevention. While genome-wide association studies have identified a number of genetic susceptibility loci in breast cancer risk, however, the application of this knowledge to practical prevention is still underway. Here, we briefly review the history of molecular epidemiology and its progress in breast cancer epidemiology. We then introduce our experience with the trial combination of GWAS-identified loci and well-established lifestyle and reproductive risk factors in the risk prediction of breast cancer. Finally, we report our exploration of the cumulative risk of breast cancer based on this risk prediction model as a potential tool for individual risk communication, including genetic risk factors and gene-environment interaction with obesity.

Estimation of key parameters in adaptive neuron model according to firing patterns based on improved particle swarm optimization algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Chunhua; Wang, Jiang; Yi, Guosheng

2017-03-01

Estimation of ion channel parameters is crucial to spike initiation of neurons. The biophysical neuron models have numerous ion channel parameters, but only a few of them play key roles in the firing patterns of the models. So we choose three parameters featuring the adaptation in the Ermentrout neuron model to be estimated. However, the traditional particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm is still easy to fall into local optimum and has the premature convergence phenomenon in the study of some problems. In this paper, we propose an improved method that uses a concave function and dynamic logistic chaotic mapping mixed to adjust the inertia weights of the fitness value, effectively improve the global convergence ability of the algorithm. The perfect predicting firing trajectories of the rebuilt model using the estimated parameters prove that only estimating a few important ion channel parameters can establish the model well and the proposed algorithm is effective. Estimations using two classic PSO algorithms are also compared to the improved PSO to verify that the algorithm proposed in this paper can avoid local optimum and quickly converge to the optimal value. The results provide important theoretical foundations for building biologically realistic neuron models.

Multiple Imputation for Incomplete Data in Epidemiologic Studies

PubMed Central

Harel, Ofer; Mitchell, Emily M; Perkins, Neil J; Cole, Stephen R; Tchetgen Tchetgen, Eric J; Sun, BaoLuo; Schisterman, Enrique F

2018-01-01

Abstract Epidemiologic studies are frequently susceptible to missing information. Omitting observations with missing variables remains a common strategy in epidemiologic studies, yet this simple approach can often severely bias parameter estimates of interest if the values are not missing completely at random. Even when missingness is completely random, complete-case analysis can reduce the efficiency of estimated parameters, because large amounts of available data are simply tossed out with the incomplete observations. Alternative methods for mitigating the influence of missing information, such as multiple imputation, are becoming an increasing popular strategy in order to retain all available information, reduce potential bias, and improve efficiency in parameter estimation. In this paper, we describe the theoretical underpinnings of multiple imputation, and we illustrate application of this method as part of a collaborative challenge to assess the performance of various techniques for dealing with missing data (Am J Epidemiol. 2018;187(3):568–575). We detail the steps necessary to perform multiple imputation on a subset of data from the Collaborative Perinatal Project (1959–1974), where the goal is to estimate the odds of spontaneous abortion associated with smoking during pregnancy. PMID:29165547

Key Parameters Evaluation for Hip Prosthesis with Finite Element Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Hongqiang; Li, Dichen; Lian, Qin; Li, Xiang; Jin, Zhongmin

2007-09-01

Stem length and cross section are two key parameters that influence the stability and longevity of metallic hip prosthesis in the total hip arthroplasty (THA). In order to assess their influence to the stress and fatigue behavior of hip prosthesis, a series model of hip prosthesis with round-shaped or drum-shaped cross section, and with different stem lengths were created. These models were analyzed under both static and dynamic loading conditions with finite element analysis, and dynamic loading represents normal walking was used in the dynamic analysis. The stress on the metallic stem, cement, and adjacent bone were got, micromotion on the cement-metal interface were got too. Safety factors for fatigue life of the hip prothesis were calculated based on data obtained from dynamic analysis. Static analysis shows that drum-shaped cross section can decrease the displacement of the stem, that stress on drum-shaped stem focus on the corner of the femoral neck and the distal part of hip prosthesis, whereas the stress on the round-shaped stem distributes evenly over most part of the stem, and maximum stress on stem prosthesis fluctuates with stem length bottoming out at stem length range from 80 mm to 110 mm, that drum-shaped stems with drum height 8 mm generate more stress at the distal part of stem than drum-shaped stems with drum height 10 mm and round stems do. Dynamic and fatigue analysis shows that drum-shaped stem with drum height 10 mm and stem length 90 mm has the greatest safety factor therefore long fatigue life.

Statistical inference to advance network models in epidemiology.

PubMed

Welch, David; Bansal, Shweta; Hunter, David R

2011-03-01

Contact networks are playing an increasingly important role in the study of epidemiology. Most of the existing work in this area has focused on considering the effect of underlying network structure on epidemic dynamics by using tools from probability theory and computer simulation. This work has provided much insight on the role that heterogeneity in host contact patterns plays on infectious disease dynamics. Despite the important understanding afforded by the probability and simulation paradigm, this approach does not directly address important questions about the structure of contact networks such as what is the best network model for a particular mode of disease transmission, how parameter values of a given model should be estimated, or how precisely the data allow us to estimate these parameter values. We argue that these questions are best answered within a statistical framework and discuss the role of statistical inference in estimating contact networks from epidemiological data. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Key parameters and practices controlling pesticide degradation efficiency of biobed substrates.

PubMed

Karanasios, Evangelos; Karpouzas, Dimitrios G; Tsiropoulos, Nikolaos G

2012-01-01

We studied the contribution of each of the components of a compost-based biomixture (BX), commonly used in Europe, on pesticide degradation. The impact of other key parameters including pesticide dose, temperature and repeated applications on the degradation of eight pesticides, applied as a mixture, in a BX and a peat-based biomixture (OBX) was compared and contrasted to their degradation in soil. Incubation studies showed that straw was essential in maintaining a high pesticide degradation capacity of the biomixture, whereas compost, when mixed with soil, retarded pesticide degradation. The highest rates of degradation were shown in the biomixture composed of soil/compost/straw suggesting that all three components are essential for maximum biobed performance. Increasing doses prolonged the persistence of most pesticides with biomixtures showing a higher tolerance to high pesticide dose levels compared to soil. Increasing the incubation temperature from 15 °C to 25 °C resulted in lower t(1/2) values, with biomixtures performing better than soil at the lower temperature. Repeated applications led to a decrease in the degradation rates of most pesticides in all the substrates, with the exception of iprodione and metalaxyl. Overall, our results stress the ability of biomixtures to perform better than soil under unfavorable conditions and extreme pesticide dose levels. Copyright © Taylor & Francis Group, LLC

Assessing the performance of community-available global MHD models using key system parameters and empirical relationships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gordeev, E.; Sergeev, V.; Honkonen, I.; Kuznetsova, M.; Rastätter, L.; Palmroth, M.; Janhunen, P.; Tóth, G.; Lyon, J.; Wiltberger, M.

2015-12-01

Global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) modeling is a powerful tool in space weather research and predictions. There are several advanced and still developing global MHD (GMHD) models that are publicly available via Community Coordinated Modeling Center's (CCMC) Run on Request system, which allows the users to simulate the magnetospheric response to different solar wind conditions including extraordinary events, like geomagnetic storms. Systematic validation of GMHD models against observations still continues to be a challenge, as well as comparative benchmarking of different models against each other. In this paper we describe and test a new approach in which (i) a set of critical large-scale system parameters is explored/tested, which are produced by (ii) specially designed set of computer runs to simulate realistic statistical distributions of critical solar wind parameters and are compared to (iii) observation-based empirical relationships for these parameters. Being tested in approximately similar conditions (similar inputs, comparable grid resolution, etc.), the four models publicly available at the CCMC predict rather well the absolute values and variations of those key parameters (magnetospheric size, magnetic field, and pressure) which are directly related to the large-scale magnetospheric equilibrium in the outer magnetosphere, for which the MHD is supposed to be a valid approach. At the same time, the models have systematic differences in other parameters, being especially different in predicting the global convection rate, total field-aligned current, and magnetic flux loading into the magnetotail after the north-south interplanetary magnetic field turning. According to validation results, none of the models emerges as an absolute leader. The new approach suggested for the evaluation of the models performance against reality may be used by model users while planning their investigations, as well as by model developers and those interesting to quantitatively

Spillover effects in epidemiology: parameters, study designs and methodological considerations

PubMed Central

Benjamin-Chung, Jade; Arnold, Benjamin F; Berger, David; Luby, Stephen P; Miguel, Edward; Colford Jr, John M; Hubbard, Alan E

2018-01-01

Abstract Many public health interventions provide benefits that extend beyond their direct recipients and impact people in close physical or social proximity who did not directly receive the intervention themselves. A classic example of this phenomenon is the herd protection provided by many vaccines. If these ‘spillover effects’ (i.e. ‘herd effects’) are present in the same direction as the effects on the intended recipients, studies that only estimate direct effects on recipients will likely underestimate the full public health benefits of the intervention. Causal inference assumptions for spillover parameters have been articulated in the vaccine literature, but many studies measuring spillovers of other types of public health interventions have not drawn upon that literature. In conjunction with a systematic review we conducted of spillovers of public health interventions delivered in low- and middle-income countries, we classified the most widely used spillover parameters reported in the empirical literature into a standard notation. General classes of spillover parameters include: cluster-level spillovers; spillovers conditional on treatment or outcome density, distance or the number of treated social network links; and vaccine efficacy parameters related to spillovers. We draw on high quality empirical examples to illustrate each of these parameters. We describe study designs to estimate spillovers and assumptions required to make causal inferences about spillovers. We aim to advance and encourage methods for spillover estimation and reporting by standardizing spillover parameter nomenclature and articulating the causal inference assumptions required to estimate spillovers. PMID:29106568

Current practices in teaching introductory epidemiology: how we got here, where to go.

PubMed

Keyes, Katherine M; Galea, Sandro

2014-10-01

The number of students and disciplines requiring basic instruction in epidemiologic methods is growing. As a field, we now have a lexicon of epidemiologic terminology and particular methods that have developed and become canonical through the historical development of the field. Yet, many of our basic concepts remain elusive to some students, particularly those not pursuing a career in epidemiology. Further, disagreement and redundancy across basic terms limit their utility in teaching epidemiology. Many approaches to teaching epidemiology generally start with labeling key concepts and then move on to explain them. We submit that an approach grounded not in labels but in foundational concepts may offer a useful adjunct to introductory epidemiology education. We propose 7 foundational steps in conducting an epidemiologic study and provide examples of how these steps can be operationalized, using simple graphics that articulate how populations are defined, samples are selected, and individuals are followed to count cases. A reorganization of introductory epidemiology around core first principles may be an effective way forward for educating the next generation of public health scientists. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Research Methods in Healthcare Epidemiology: Survey and Qualitative Research.

PubMed

Safdar, Nasia; Abbo, Lilian M; Knobloch, Mary Jo; Seo, Susan K

2016-11-01

Surveys are one of the most frequently employed study designs in healthcare epidemiology research. Generally easier to undertake and less costly than many other study designs, surveys can be invaluable to gain insights into opinions and practices in large samples and may be descriptive and/or be used to test associations. In this context, qualitative research methods may complement this study design either at the survey development phase and/or at the interpretation/extension of results stage. This methods article focuses on key considerations for designing and deploying surveys in healthcare epidemiology and antibiotic stewardship, including identification of whether or not de novo survey development is necessary, ways to optimally lay out and display a survey, denominator measurement, discussion of biases to keep in mind particularly in research using surveys, and the role of qualitative research methods to complement surveys. We review examples of surveys in healthcare epidemiology and antimicrobial stewardship and review the pros and cons of methods used. A checklist is provided to help aid design and deployment of surveys in healthcare epidemiology and antimicrobial stewardship. Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol 2016;1-6.

Charting a Future for Epidemiologic Training

PubMed Central

Samet, Jonathan M.; Chavez, Gilbert F.; Davies, Megan M.; Galea, Sandro; Hiatt, Robert A.; Hornung, Carlton A.; Khoury, Muin J.; Koo, Denise; Mays, Vickie M.; Remington, Patrick; Yarber, Laura

2015-01-01

Purpose To identify macro level trends that are changing the needs of epidemiologic research and practice and to develop and disseminate a set of competencies and recommendations for epidemiologic training that will be responsive to these changing needs. Methods There were three stages to the project: 1) assembly of a working group of senior epidemiologists from multiple sectors, 2) Identifying relevant literature, and 3) conducting key informant interviews with 15 experienced epidemiologists. Results Twelve macro trends were identified along with associated actions for the field and educational competencies. The macro trends include: 1) “Big Data”/ informatics, 2) the changing health communication environment, 3) the Affordable Care Act/health care system reform, 4) shifting demographics, 5) globalization, 6) emerging high throughput technologies (“omics”), 7) a greater focus on accountability, 8) privacy changes, 9) a greater focus on “upstream” causes of disease, 10) the emergence of translational sciences, 11) the growing centrality of team and trans-disciplinary science, and 12) the evolving funding environment. Conclusion Addressing these issues through curricular change is needed to allow the field of epidemiology to more fully reach and sustain its full potential to benefit population health and remain a scientific discipline that makes critical contributions to ensuring clinical, social, and population health. PMID:25976024

Structural and Practical Identifiability Issues of Immuno-Epidemiological Vector-Host Models with Application to Rift Valley Fever.

PubMed

Tuncer, Necibe; Gulbudak, Hayriye; Cannataro, Vincent L; Martcheva, Maia

2016-09-01

In this article, we discuss the structural and practical identifiability of a nested immuno-epidemiological model of arbovirus diseases, where host-vector transmission rate, host recovery, and disease-induced death rates are governed by the within-host immune system. We incorporate the newest ideas and the most up-to-date features of numerical methods to fit multi-scale models to multi-scale data. For an immunological model, we use Rift Valley Fever Virus (RVFV) time-series data obtained from livestock under laboratory experiments, and for an epidemiological model we incorporate a human compartment to the nested model and use the number of human RVFV cases reported by the CDC during the 2006-2007 Kenya outbreak. We show that the immunological model is not structurally identifiable for the measurements of time-series viremia concentrations in the host. Thus, we study the non-dimensionalized and scaled versions of the immunological model and prove that both are structurally globally identifiable. After fixing estimated parameter values for the immunological model derived from the scaled model, we develop a numerical method to fit observable RVFV epidemiological data to the nested model for the remaining parameter values of the multi-scale system. For the given (CDC) data set, Monte Carlo simulations indicate that only three parameters of the epidemiological model are practically identifiable when the immune model parameters are fixed. Alternatively, we fit the multi-scale data to the multi-scale model simultaneously. Monte Carlo simulations for the simultaneous fitting suggest that the parameters of the immunological model and the parameters of the immuno-epidemiological model are practically identifiable. We suggest that analytic approaches for studying the structural identifiability of nested models are a necessity, so that identifiable parameter combinations can be derived to reparameterize the nested model to obtain an identifiable one. This is a crucial step in

Guidelines for Good Epidemiology Practices for Occupational and Environmental Epidemiologic Research. The Chemical Manufacturers Association's Epidemiology Task Group.

PubMed

1991-12-01

The Guidelines for Good Epidemiology Practices (GEPs) for Occupational and Environmental Epidemiologic Research address the conduct of studies generally undertaken to answer questions about human health in relationship to the work place or the environment. The GEPs propose minimum practices and procedures that should be considered to help ensure the quality and integrity of data used in epidemiologic research and to provide adequate documentation of the research methods. The GEPs address the process of conducting individual epidemiologic studies and do not prescribe specific research methods. The Guidelines for Good Epidemiology Practices propose minimum practices and procedures in the following areas: I. Organization and Personnel II. Facilities, Resource Commitment, and Contractors III. Protocol IV. Review and Approval V. Study Conduct VI. Communication VII. Archiving VIII. Quality Assurance Although the Guidelines for Good Epidemiology Practices will not guarantee good epidemiology, they do provide a useful framework for ensuring that all research issues are adequately addressed. This framework is proposed as a first step in improving epidemiologic research practices through adherence to sound scientific research principles. Appendices provide an overview of standard operating procedures, a glossary of terms used in the Guidelines, and suggested references on occupational epidemiology methods.

Psychiatric epidemiology, or the story of a divided discipline.

PubMed

Demazeux, Steeves

2014-08-01

This article traces the historical decisions, concepts and key professional collaborations that laid the foundations for the formation of American psychiatric epidemiology during the 20th century, up to the discipline's institutional consolidation, circa 1980, when the third edition of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-III) was published. Thomas Kuhn's 'disciplinary matrix' is mobilized as a framework that allows the institutional and intellectual construction of a discipline to be analysed as separate but intertwined components, without assuming that the two evolve in tandem. The identification of the strengths as well as the frailties and internal divisions of the discipline as it developed reveals a paradoxical situation: a time lag between psychiatric epidemiology's institutionalization and public recognition, on the one hand; and the weak coherence of its intellectual components, on the other hand. We briefly trace the origins of split among the discipline's aetiological models of mental disorders and suggest that the lack of coherence among them has prevented psychiatric epidemiology from achieving the status of a normal scientific discipline, in the Kuhnian sense. Without a more explicit attention to the intellectual rationale of the discipline, psychiatric epidemiology will continue to maintain a strong institutional dimension and weak intellectual matrix. © The Author 2014; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

Applied epidemiology and public health: are we training the future generations appropriately?

PubMed

Brownson, Ross C; Samet, Jonathan M; Bensyl, Diana M

2017-02-01

To extend the reach and relevance of epidemiology for public health practice, the science needs be broadened beyond etiologic research, to link more strongly with emerging technologies and to acknowledge key societal transformations. This new focus for epidemiology and its implications for epidemiologic training can be considered in the context of macro trends affecting society, including a greater focus on upstream causes of disease, shifting demographics, the Affordable Care Act and health care system reform, globalization, changing health communication environment, growing centrality of team and transdisciplinary science, emergence of translational sciences, greater focus on accountability, big data, informatics, high-throughput technologies ("omics"), privacy changes, and the evolving funding environment. This commentary describes existing approaches to and competencies for training in epidemiology, maps macro trends with competencies, highlights an example of competency-based education in the Epidemic Intelligence Service of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and suggests expanded and more dynamic training approaches. A reexamination of current approaches to epidemiologic training is needed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Epidemiology in wonderland: Big Data and precision medicine.

PubMed

Saracci, Rodolfo

2018-03-01

Big Data and precision medicine, two major contemporary challenges for epidemiology, are critically examined from two different angles. In Part 1 Big Data collected for research purposes (Big research Data) and Big Data used for research although collected for other primary purposes (Big secondary Data) are discussed in the light of the fundamental common requirement of data validity, prevailing over "bigness". Precision medicine is treated developing the key point that high relative risks are as a rule required to make a variable or combination of variables suitable for prediction of disease occurrence, outcome or response to treatment; the commercial proliferation of allegedly predictive tests of unknown or poor validity is commented. Part 2 proposes a "wise epidemiology" approach to: (a) choosing in a context imprinted by Big Data and precision medicine-epidemiological research projects actually relevant to population health, (b) training epidemiologists, (c) investigating the impact on clinical practices and doctor-patient relation of the influx of Big Data and computerized medicine and (d) clarifying whether today "health" may be redefined-as some maintain in purely technological terms.

Population Neuroscience: Dementia Epidemiology Serving Precision Medicine and Population Health.

PubMed

Ganguli, Mary; Albanese, Emiliano; Seshadri, Sudha; Bennett, David A; Lyketsos, Constantine; Kukull, Walter A; Skoog, Ingmar; Hendrie, Hugh C

2018-01-01

Over recent decades, epidemiology has made significant contributions to our understanding of dementia, translating scientific discoveries into population health. Here, we propose reframing dementia epidemiology as "population neuroscience," blending techniques and models from contemporary neuroscience with those of epidemiology and biostatistics. On the basis of emerging evidence and newer paradigms and methods, population neuroscience will minimize the bias typical of traditional clinical research, identify the relatively homogenous subgroups that comprise the general population, and investigate broader and denser phenotypes of dementia and cognitive impairment. Long-term follow-up of sufficiently large study cohorts will allow the identification of cohort effects and critical windows of exposure. Molecular epidemiology and omics will allow us to unravel the key distinctions within and among subgroups and better understand individuals' risk profiles. Interventional epidemiology will allow us to identify the different subgroups that respond to different treatment/prevention strategies. These strategies will inform precision medicine. In addition, insights into interactions between disease biology, personal and environmental factors, and social determinants of health will allow us to measure and track disease in communities and improve population health. By placing neuroscience within a real-world context, population neuroscience can fulfill its potential to serve both precision medicine and population health.

Key management of the double random-phase-encoding method using public-key encryption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saini, Nirmala; Sinha, Aloka

2010-03-01

Public-key encryption has been used to encode the key of the encryption process. In the proposed technique, an input image has been encrypted by using the double random-phase-encoding method using extended fractional Fourier transform. The key of the encryption process have been encoded by using the Rivest-Shamir-Adelman (RSA) public-key encryption algorithm. The encoded key has then been transmitted to the receiver side along with the encrypted image. In the decryption process, first the encoded key has been decrypted using the secret key and then the encrypted image has been decrypted by using the retrieved key parameters. The proposed technique has advantage over double random-phase-encoding method because the problem associated with the transmission of the key has been eliminated by using public-key encryption. Computer simulation has been carried out to validate the proposed technique.

Molecular epidemiology and phylogeny of Nipah virus infection: A mini review.

PubMed

Angeletti, Silvia; Lo Presti, Alessandra; Cella, Eleonora; Ciccozzi, Massimo

2016-07-01

Nipah virus (NiV) is a member of the genus Henipavirus of the family Paramyxoviridae, characterized by high pathogenicity and endemic in South Asia. It is classified as a Biosafety Level-4 (BSL-4) agent. The case-fatality varies from 40% to 70% depending on the severity of the disease and on the availability of adequate healthcare facilities. At present no antiviral drugs are available for NiV disease and the treatment is just supportive. Phylogenetic and evolutionary analyses can be used to help in understanding the epidemiology and the temporal origin of this virus. This review provides an overview of evolutionary studies performed on Nipah viruses circulating in different countries. Thirty phylogenetic studies have been published from 2000 to 2015 years, searching on pub-med using the key words 'Nipah virus AND phylogeny' and twenty-eight molecular epidemiological studies from 2006 to 2015 have been performed, typing the key words 'Nipah virus AND molecular epidemiology'. Overall data from the published study demonstrated as phylogenetic and evolutionary analysis represent promising tools to evidence NiV epidemics, to study their origin and evolution and finally to act with effective preventive measure. Copyright © 2016 Hainan Medical College. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Healthy imaginations: a social history of the epidemiology of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander health.

PubMed

Brough, M

2001-01-01

It is difficult to imagine Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander health without the powerful descriptors of epidemiology. The statistical imagery of numerical tables, pie charts, and bar graphs have become a key element in the public presentation of Indigenous public health issues. Such quantitative measurements of health draw on the authority of neutral, objective science and are thus rarely questioned in terms of their social meaning. This paper traces the history of this imagery through the 20th century, providing a social account of epidemiological description. Historical notions such as social Darwinism, assimilation, and dangerous other are all seen to be woven into the epidemiological text. The enormous rise in the epidemiological description of Indigenous health problems in recent years needs to be analyzed as a social phenomenon and, in particular, as an aspect of emerging forms of governmentality. Finally, it is argued that such analyses are needed in order to promote an anthropology of epidemiology and to avoid limiting medical anthropology to applications within epidemiology.

Embodiment: a conceptual glossary for epidemiology

PubMed Central

Krieger, N.

2005-01-01

Embodiment. This construct and process are central to ecosocial theory and epidemiological inquiry. Recognising that we, as humans, are simultaneously social beings and biological organisms, the notion of "embodiment" advances three critical claims: (1) bodies tell stories about—and cannot be studied divorced from—the conditions of our existence; (2) bodies tell stories that often—but not always—match people's stated accounts; and (3) bodies tell stories that people cannot or will not tell, either because they are unable, forbidden, or choose not to tell. Just as the proverbial "dead man's bones" do in fact tell tales, via forensic pathology and historical anthropometry, so too do our living bodies tell stories about our lives, whether or not these are ever consciously expressed. This glossary sketches some key concepts, definitions, and hypotheses relevant for using the construct of "embodiment" in epidemiological research, so as to promote not only rigorous science but also social equity in health. PMID:15831681

Global epidemiology of hyperthyroidism and hypothyroidism.

PubMed

Taylor, Peter N; Albrecht, Diana; Scholz, Anna; Gutierrez-Buey, Gala; Lazarus, John H; Dayan, Colin M; Okosieme, Onyebuchi E

2018-05-01

Thyroid hormones are essential for growth, neuronal development, reproduction and regulation of energy metabolism. Hypothyroidism and hyperthyroidism are common conditions with potentially devastating health consequences that affect all populations worldwide. Iodine nutrition is a key determinant of thyroid disease risk; however, other factors, such as ageing, smoking status, genetic susceptibility, ethnicity, endocrine disruptors and the advent of novel therapeutics, including immune checkpoint inhibitors, also influence thyroid disease epidemiology. In the developed world, the prevalence of undiagnosed thyroid disease is likely falling owing to widespread thyroid function testing and relatively low thresholds for treatment initiation. However, continued vigilance against iodine deficiency remains essential in developed countries, particularly in Europe. In this report, we review the global incidence and prevalence of hyperthyroidism and hypothyroidism, highlighting geographical differences and the effect of environmental factors, such as iodine supplementation, on these data. We also highlight the pressing need for detailed epidemiological surveys of thyroid dysfunction and iodine status in developing countries.

Social oral epidemi(olog)2y where next: one small step or one giant leap?

PubMed Central

Baker, Sarah R; Gibson, Barry G

2014-01-01

Since the early 1990s, there has been heated debate critically reflecting on social epidemiology. Yet, very little of this debate has reached oral epidemiology. This is no more noticeable than in the field of oral health inequalities. One of the significant achievements of social oral epidemiology has been the persistent documentation of social patterning of oral disease. Nevertheless, where social oral epidemiology has fallen down is going beyond description to explaining these patterns. Thinking how and in what way things happen, not just in relation to oral health inequalities but also more broadly, requires a more creative approach which links to scholarship outside of dentistry, including the work from critical epidemiologists to that within the social sciences. The aim of this review study is to provide a critical commentary on key aspects of more general epidemiological debates in order to inform and develop social oral epidemiology theory and methodology. In the first section, ‘Where are we now?’, six key debates are reflected upon: (i) analysis of variance versus analysis of causes, (ii) the fallacy of independent effects, (iii) black box thinking, (iv) theory and the understanding of mechanisms, (v) individualization of risk and (vi) the meaning of ‘social’. In the second section, ‘Where to next?’ we draw on a number of fundamental issues from within the social science literature in order to highlight possible channels of future inquiry. Our overriding goal throughout is to facilitate a critical engagement in order to improve understanding and generate knowledge in relation to population oral health. PMID:25039714

Key parameters of the sediment surface morphodynamics in an estuary - An assessment of model solutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sampath, D. M. R.; Boski, T.

2018-05-01

Large-scale geomorphological evolution of an estuarine system was simulated by means of a hybrid estuarine sedimentation model (HESM) applied to the Guadiana Estuary, in Southwest Iberia. The model simulates the decadal-scale morphodynamics of the system under environmental forcing, using a set of analytical solutions to simplified equations of tidal wave propagation in shallow waters, constrained by empirical knowledge of estuarine sedimentary dynamics and topography. The key controlling parameters of the model are bed friction (f), current velocity power of the erosion rate function (N), and sea-level rise rate. An assessment of sensitivity of the simulated sediment surface elevation (SSE) change to these controlling parameters was performed. The model predicted the spatial differentiation of accretion and erosion, the latter especially marked in the mudflats within mean sea level and low tide level and accretion was mainly in a subtidal channel. The average SSE change mutually depended on both the friction coefficient and power of the current velocity. Analysis of the average annual SSE change suggests that the state of intertidal and subtidal compartments of the estuarine system vary differently according to the dominant processes (erosion and accretion). As the Guadiana estuarine system shows dominant erosional behaviour in the context of sea-level rise and sediment supply reduction after the closure of the Alqueva Dam, the most plausible sets of parameter values for the Guadiana Estuary are N = 1.8 and f = 0.8f0, or N = 2 and f = f0, where f0 is the empirically estimated value. For these sets of parameter values, the relative errors in SSE change did not exceed ±20% in 73% of simulation cells in the studied area. Such a limit of accuracy can be acceptable for an idealized modelling of coastal evolution in response to uncertain sea-level rise scenarios in the context of reduced sediment supply due to flow regulation. Therefore, the idealized but cost

Estimation of Key Parameters of the Coupled Energy and Water Model by Assimilating Land Surface Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdolghafoorian, A.; Farhadi, L.

2017-12-01

Accurate estimation of land surface heat and moisture fluxes, as well as root zone soil moisture, is crucial in various hydrological, meteorological, and agricultural applications. Field measurements of these fluxes are costly and cannot be readily scaled to large areas relevant to weather and climate studies. Therefore, there is a need for techniques to make quantitative estimates of heat and moisture fluxes using land surface state observations that are widely available from remote sensing across a range of scale. In this work, we applies the variational data assimilation approach to estimate land surface fluxes and soil moisture profile from the implicit information contained Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Soil Moisture (SM) (hereafter the VDA model). The VDA model is focused on the estimation of three key parameters: 1- neutral bulk heat transfer coefficient (CHN), 2- evaporative fraction from soil and canopy (EF), and 3- saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ksat). CHN and EF regulate the partitioning of available energy between sensible and latent heat fluxes. Ksat is one of the main parameters used in determining infiltration, runoff, groundwater recharge, and in simulating hydrological processes. In this study, a system of coupled parsimonious energy and water model will constrain the estimation of three unknown parameters in the VDA model. The profile of SM (LST) at multiple depths is estimated using moisture diffusion (heat diffusion) equation. In this study, the uncertainties of retrieved unknown parameters and fluxes are estimated from the inverse of Hesian matrix of cost function which is computed using the Lagrangian methodology. Analysis of uncertainty provides valuable information about the accuracy of estimated parameters and their correlation and guide the formulation of a well-posed estimation problem. The results of proposed algorithm are validated with a series of experiments using a synthetic data set generated by the simultaneous heat and

Epidemiology of Multiple Myeloma in the Czech Republic.

PubMed

Maluskova, D; Svobodová, I; Kucerova, M; Brozova, L; Muzik, J; Jarkovský, J; Hájek, R; Maisnar, V; Dusek, L

2017-01-01

Multiple myeloma (MM) is a cancer of plasma cells with an incidence of 4.8 cases per 100,000 population in the Czech Republic in 2014; the burden of MM in the Czech Republic is moderate when compared to other European countries. This work brings the latest information on MM epidemiology in the Czech population. The Czech National Cancer Registry is the basic source of data for the population-based evaluation of MM epidemiology. This database also makes it possible to assess patient survival and to predict probable short-term as well as long-term trends in the treatment burden of the entire population. According to the latest Czech National Cancer Registry data, there were 504 new cases of MM and 376 deaths from MM in 2014. Since 2004, there has been a 26.9% increase in MM incidence and an 8.3% increase in MM mortality. In 2014, there were 1,982 persons living with MM or a history of MM, corresponding to a 74.4% increase when compared to MM prevalence in 2004. The 5-year survival of patients treated in the period 2010-2014 was nearly 40%. The available data make it possible to analyse long-term trends in MM epidemiology and to predict the future treatment burden as well as treatment results.Key words: multiple myeloma - epidemiology - Czech National Cancer Registry - Registry of Monoclonal Gammopathies - Czech Republic.

Unbounded and revocable hierarchical identity-based encryption with adaptive security, decryption key exposure resistant, and short public parameters

PubMed Central

Wang, Baosheng; Tao, Jing

2018-01-01

Revocation functionality and hierarchy key delegation are two necessary and crucial requirements to identity-based cryptosystems. Revocable hierarchical identity-based encryption (RHIBE) has attracted a lot of attention in recent years, many RHIBE schemes have been proposed but shown to be either insecure or bounded where they have to fix the maximum hierarchical depth of RHIBE at setup. In this paper, we propose a new unbounded RHIBE scheme with decryption key exposure resilience and with short public system parameters, and prove our RHIBE scheme to be adaptively secure. Our system model is scalable inherently to accommodate more levels of user adaptively with no adding workload or restarting the system. By carefully designing the hybrid games, we overcome the subtle obstacle in applying the dual system encryption methodology for the unbounded and revocable HIBE. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first construction of adaptively secure unbounded RHIBE scheme. PMID:29649326

Development of an Agent-Based Model (ABM) to Simulate the Immune System and Integration of a Regression Method to Estimate the Key ABM Parameters by Fitting the Experimental Data

PubMed Central

Tong, Xuming; Chen, Jinghang; Miao, Hongyu; Li, Tingting; Zhang, Le

2015-01-01

Agent-based models (ABM) and differential equations (DE) are two commonly used methods for immune system simulation. However, it is difficult for ABM to estimate key parameters of the model by incorporating experimental data, whereas the differential equation model is incapable of describing the complicated immune system in detail. To overcome these problems, we developed an integrated ABM regression model (IABMR). It can combine the advantages of ABM and DE by employing ABM to mimic the multi-scale immune system with various phenotypes and types of cells as well as using the input and output of ABM to build up the Loess regression for key parameter estimation. Next, we employed the greedy algorithm to estimate the key parameters of the ABM with respect to the same experimental data set and used ABM to describe a 3D immune system similar to previous studies that employed the DE model. These results indicate that IABMR not only has the potential to simulate the immune system at various scales, phenotypes and cell types, but can also accurately infer the key parameters like DE model. Therefore, this study innovatively developed a complex system development mechanism that could simulate the complicated immune system in detail like ABM and validate the reliability and efficiency of model like DE by fitting the experimental data. PMID:26535589

Finite-key analysis for measurement-device-independent quantum key distribution.

PubMed

Curty, Marcos; Xu, Feihu; Cui, Wei; Lim, Charles Ci Wen; Tamaki, Kiyoshi; Lo, Hoi-Kwong

2014-04-29

Quantum key distribution promises unconditionally secure communications. However, as practical devices tend to deviate from their specifications, the security of some practical systems is no longer valid. In particular, an adversary can exploit imperfect detectors to learn a large part of the secret key, even though the security proof claims otherwise. Recently, a practical approach--measurement-device-independent quantum key distribution--has been proposed to solve this problem. However, so far its security has only been fully proven under the assumption that the legitimate users of the system have unlimited resources. Here we fill this gap and provide a rigorous security proof against general attacks in the finite-key regime. This is obtained by applying large deviation theory, specifically the Chernoff bound, to perform parameter estimation. For the first time we demonstrate the feasibility of long-distance implementations of measurement-device-independent quantum key distribution within a reasonable time frame of signal transmission.

The limitations of opportunistic epidemiology, pseudopod epidemiology.

PubMed

Kuller, Lewis H

2016-10-01

Epidemiology has been remarkably successful in the past in identifying the important agents of disease, the impact of the environment, both physical and social, and interrelationship with host susceptibility (genomics). Many of the advances in improving the health of individuals and populations have been the result of epidemiology studies that have identified the specific "agents" of disease and application of public health and preventive medicine. In recent years, large longitudinal studies have dominated epidemiology research, especially long incubation period chronic diseases. The initial hypotheses in these studies have been expanded by vertical extension studies using newer technologies to measure independent variables, vertical pseudopods, and additional studies of other diseases, horizontal pseudopods, of the original longitudinal study. Host susceptibility, i.e. genomics, has also become a prominent component of these longitudinal studies. The critical question addressed in this paper is whether these "pseudopod" epidemiology approaches have enhanced public health or generated a large number of studies of little impact.

Key Physiological Parameters Dictate Triggering of Activity-Dependent Bulk Endocytosis in Hippocampal Synapses

PubMed Central

Wenzel, Eva M.; Morton, Andrew; Ebert, Katrin; Welzel, Oliver; Kornhuber, Johannes; Cousin, Michael A.; Groemer, Teja W.

2012-01-01

To maintain neurotransmission in central neurons, several mechanisms are employed to retrieve synaptically exocytosed membrane. The two major modes of synaptic vesicle (SV) retrieval are clathrin-mediated endocytosis and activity-dependent bulk endocytosis (ADBE). ADBE is the dominant SV retrieval mode during intense stimulation, however the precise physiological conditions that trigger this mode are not resolved. To determine these parameters we manipulated rat hippocampal neurons using a wide spectrum of stimuli by varying both the pattern and duration of stimulation. Using live-cell fluorescence imaging and electron microscopy approaches, we established that stimulation frequency, rather than the stimulation load, was critical in the triggering of ADBE. Thus two hundred action potentials, when delivered at high frequency, were sufficient to induce near maximal bulk formation. Furthermore we observed a strong correlation between SV pool size and ability to perform ADBE. We also identified that inhibitory nerve terminals were more likely to utilize ADBE and had a larger SV recycling pool. Thus ADBE in hippocampal synaptic terminals is tightly coupled to stimulation frequency and is more likely to occur in terminals with large SV pools. These results implicate ADBE as a key modulator of both hippocampal neurotransmission and plasticity. PMID:22675521

The logic of comparative life history studies for estimating key parameters, with a focus on natural mortality rate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hoenig, John M; Then, Amy Y.-H.; Babcock, Elizabeth A.; Hall, Norman G.; Hewitt, David A.; Hesp, Sybrand A.

2016-01-01

There are a number of key parameters in population dynamics that are difficult to estimate, such as natural mortality rate, intrinsic rate of population growth, and stock-recruitment relationships. Often, these parameters of a stock are, or can be, estimated indirectly on the basis of comparative life history studies. That is, the relationship between a difficult to estimate parameter and life history correlates is examined over a wide variety of species in order to develop predictive equations. The form of these equations may be derived from life history theory or simply be suggested by exploratory data analysis. Similarly, population characteristics such as potential yield can be estimated by making use of a relationship between the population parameter and bio-chemico–physical characteristics of the ecosystem. Surprisingly, little work has been done to evaluate how well these indirect estimators work and, in fact, there is little guidance on how to conduct comparative life history studies and how to evaluate them. We consider five issues arising in such studies: (i) the parameters of interest may be ill-defined idealizations of the real world, (ii) true values of the parameters are not known for any species, (iii) selecting data based on the quality of the estimates can introduce a host of problems, (iv) the estimates that are available for comparison constitute a non-random sample of species from an ill-defined population of species of interest, and (v) the hierarchical nature of the data (e.g. stocks within species within genera within families, etc., with multiple observations at each level) warrants consideration. We discuss how these issues can be handled and how they shape the kinds of questions that can be asked of a database of life history studies.

Mozambique field epidemiology and laboratory training program: a pathway for strengthening human resources in applied epidemiology.

PubMed

Baltazar, Cynthia Semá; Taibo, Cátia; Sacarlal, Jahit; Gujral, Lorna; Salomão, Cristolde; Doyle, Timothy

2017-01-01

In the last decades, Mozambique has been undergoing demographic, epidemiological, economic and social transitions, which have all had a notable impact on the National Health System. New challenges have emerged, causing a need to expand the preparation and response to emerging disease threats and public health emergencies. We describe the structure and function of the Mozambique Field Epidemiology Training Program (MZ-FELTP) and the main outputs achieved during the first 6 years of program implementation (consisting of 3 cohorts). We also outline the contribution of the program to the National Health System and assess the retention of the graduates. The MZ-FELTP is a post-graduate in-service training program, based on the acquisition of skills, within two tracks: applied epidemiology and laboratory management. The program was established in 2010, with the objective of strengthening capacity in applied epidemiology and laboratory management, so that events of public health importance can be detected and investigated in a timely and effective manner. The program is in its seventh year, having successfully trained 36 health professionals in the advanced course. During the first six years of the program, more than 40 outbreaks were investigated, 37 surveillance system evaluations were conducted and 39 descriptive data analyses were performed. Surveillance activities were implemented for mass events and emergency situations. In addition, more than 100 oral and poster presentations were given by trainees at national and international conferences. The MZ-FELTP has helped provide the Ministry of Health with the human and technical resources and operational capacity, to rapidly and effectively respond to major public health challenges in the country. The continuous involvement of key stakeholders is necessary for the continuation, expansion and ongoing sustainability of the program.

Augmenting epidemiological models with point-of-care diagnostics data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pullum, Laura L.; Ramanathan, Arvind; Nutaro, James J.

Although adoption of newer Point-of-Care (POC) diagnostics is increasing, there is a significant challenge using POC diagnostics data to improve epidemiological models. In this work, we propose a method to process zip-code level POC datasets and apply these processed data to calibrate an epidemiological model. We specifically develop a calibration algorithm using simulated annealing and calibrate a parsimonious equation-based model of modified Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) dynamics. The results show that parsimonious models are remarkably effective in predicting the dynamics observed in the number of infected patients and our calibration algorithm is sufficiently capable of predicting peak loads observed in POC diagnosticsmore » data while staying within reasonable and empirical parameter ranges reported in the literature. Additionally, we explore the future use of the calibrated values by testing the correlation between peak load and population density from Census data. Our results show that linearity assumptions for the relationships among various factors can be misleading, therefore further data sources and analysis are needed to identify relationships between additional parameters and existing calibrated ones. As a result, calibration approaches such as ours can determine the values of newly added parameters along with existing ones and enable policy-makers to make better multi-scale decisions.« less

Augmenting epidemiological models with point-of-care diagnostics data

DOE PAGES

Pullum, Laura L.; Ramanathan, Arvind; Nutaro, James J.; ...

2016-04-20

Although adoption of newer Point-of-Care (POC) diagnostics is increasing, there is a significant challenge using POC diagnostics data to improve epidemiological models. In this work, we propose a method to process zip-code level POC datasets and apply these processed data to calibrate an epidemiological model. We specifically develop a calibration algorithm using simulated annealing and calibrate a parsimonious equation-based model of modified Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) dynamics. The results show that parsimonious models are remarkably effective in predicting the dynamics observed in the number of infected patients and our calibration algorithm is sufficiently capable of predicting peak loads observed in POC diagnosticsmore » data while staying within reasonable and empirical parameter ranges reported in the literature. Additionally, we explore the future use of the calibrated values by testing the correlation between peak load and population density from Census data. Our results show that linearity assumptions for the relationships among various factors can be misleading, therefore further data sources and analysis are needed to identify relationships between additional parameters and existing calibrated ones. As a result, calibration approaches such as ours can determine the values of newly added parameters along with existing ones and enable policy-makers to make better multi-scale decisions.« less

Finite-key analysis for quantum key distribution with weak coherent pulses based on Bernoulli sampling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kawakami, Shun; Sasaki, Toshihiko; Koashi, Masato

2017-07-01

An essential step in quantum key distribution is the estimation of parameters related to the leaked amount of information, which is usually done by sampling of the communication data. When the data size is finite, the final key rate depends on how the estimation process handles statistical fluctuations. Many of the present security analyses are based on the method with simple random sampling, where hypergeometric distribution or its known bounds are used for the estimation. Here we propose a concise method based on Bernoulli sampling, which is related to binomial distribution. Our method is suitable for the Bennett-Brassard 1984 (BB84) protocol with weak coherent pulses [C. H. Bennett and G. Brassard, Proceedings of the IEEE Conference on Computers, Systems and Signal Processing (IEEE, New York, 1984), Vol. 175], reducing the number of estimated parameters to achieve a higher key generation rate compared to the method with simple random sampling. We also apply the method to prove the security of the differential-quadrature-phase-shift (DQPS) protocol in the finite-key regime. The result indicates that the advantage of the DQPS protocol over the phase-encoding BB84 protocol in terms of the key rate, which was previously confirmed in the asymptotic regime, persists in the finite-key regime.

Environmental Epidemiology Program

Science.gov Websites

accessible with JavaScript activated. Utah Department of Health Bureau of Epidemiology Environmental Epidemiology Program (EEP) The Environmental Epidemiology Program strives to improve the health of Utah residents through science-based environmental health policy and by empowering citizens with knowledge about

[Ways of urban sanitary and epidemiological well-being management].

PubMed

Kreĭmer, M A

2010-01-01

The scientific rationale for preventive measures based on sanitary-and-epidemiological surveillance on environmental objects is considered. The sizes of functional zones and space for various types of communal services and amenities and leisure are regulated to ensure good urban vital activities. Multistorey housing causes an increase in the number of negative factors per area units and in their impact on health. A proposal has been made for the standardization of the ranges of urban population upsurge and size, by using the sanitary-and-hygienic rules and norms rather than climatic parameters. A criterion system for assessing the data of statistical observations has been substantiated and 5 levels of analysis and managerial decision-making have been proposed. Cause-and-effect relations may be determined for the parameters of the second level; models of program-oriented studies for the third level, only sanitary-and-epidemiological surveillance is possible for the fourth and fifth levels. The space planning scheme must provide for water supply reserves, generation areas for pure air coming into the town, and waste disposal areas. The general layout may use statistical observation parameters characterizing the second level of occurrence of negative phenomena. The statistical observation parameters characterizing the third and fourth levels of occurrence of negative phenomena may be used for municipal improvements and sanitary maintenance. These characterizing the fourth and fifth level may be used for prevention in therapeutic-and-prophylactic institutions.

[Systems epidemiology].

PubMed

Huang, T; Li, L M

2018-05-10

The era of medical big data, translational medicine and precision medicine brings new opportunities for the study of etiology of chronic complex diseases. How to implement evidence-based medicine, translational medicine and precision medicine are the challenges we are facing. Systems epidemiology, a new field of epidemiology, combines medical big data with system biology and examines the statistical model of disease risk, the future risk simulation and prediction using the data at molecular, cellular, population, social and ecological levels. Due to the diversity and complexity of big data sources, the development of study design and analytic methods of systems epidemiology face new challenges and opportunities. This paper summarizes the theoretical basis, concept, objectives, significances, research design and analytic methods of systems epidemiology and its application in the field of public health.

Improved key-rate bounds for practical decoy-state quantum-key-distribution systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Zhen; Zhao, Qi; Razavi, Mohsen; Ma, Xiongfeng

2017-01-01

The decoy-state scheme is the most widely implemented quantum-key-distribution protocol in practice. In order to account for the finite-size key effects on the achievable secret key generation rate, a rigorous statistical fluctuation analysis is required. Originally, a heuristic Gaussian-approximation technique was used for this purpose, which, despite its analytical convenience, was not sufficiently rigorous. The fluctuation analysis has recently been made rigorous by using the Chernoff bound. There is a considerable gap, however, between the key-rate bounds obtained from these techniques and that obtained from the Gaussian assumption. Here we develop a tighter bound for the decoy-state method, which yields a smaller failure probability. This improvement results in a higher key rate and increases the maximum distance over which secure key exchange is possible. By optimizing the system parameters, our simulation results show that our method almost closes the gap between the two previously proposed techniques and achieves a performance similar to that of conventional Gaussian approximations.

The application of epidemiology in national veterinary services: Challenges and threats in Brazil.

PubMed

Gonçalves, Vitor Salvador Picão; de Moraes, Geraldo Marcos

2017-02-01

The application of epidemiology in national veterinary services must take place at the interface between science and politics. Animal health policy development and implementation require attention to macro-epidemiology, the study of economic, social and policy inputs that affect the distribution and impact of animal or human disease at the national level. The world has changed fast over the last three decades including the delivery of veterinary services, their remit and the challenges addressed by public and animal health policies. Rethinking the role of public services and how to make public programs more efficient has been at the heart of the political discussion. The WTO through its SPS Agreement has changed the way in which national veterinary services operate and how trade decisions are made. Most low and middle income countries are still struggling to keep up with the new international scene. Some of these countries, such as Brazil, have very important livestock industries and are key to the global food systems. Over the last two decades, Brazil became a leading player in exports of livestock products, including poultry, and this created a strong pressure on the national veterinary services to respond to trade demands, leading to focus animal health policies on the export-driven sector. During the same period, Brazil has gone a long way in the direction of integrating epidemiology with veterinary services. Epidemiology groups grew at main universities and have been working with government to provide support to animal health policy. The scope and quality of the applied epidemiological work improved and focused on complex data analysis and development of technologies and tools to solve specific disease problems. Many public veterinary officers were trained in modern epidemiological methods. However, there are important institutional bottlenecks that limit the impact of epidemiology in evidence-based decision making. More complex challenges require high levels

Health status and epidemiological capacity and prospects: WHO Western Pacific Region.

PubMed

Blakely, Tony; Pega, Frank; Nakamura, Yosikazu; Beaglehole, Robert; Lee, Liming; Tukuitonga, Colin Fonotau

2011-08-01

This article on the state of epidemiology in the WHO Western Pacific Region (WPR) is the first in a series of eight articles commissioned by the International Epidemiological Association (IEA) to identify global opportunities to promote the development of epidemiology. Global mortality and disease data were used to summarize the burden of mortality, disease, risk factor and patterns of inequalities in the region. Medline bibliometrics were used to estimate epidemiological publication output by country. Key informant surveys, Internet and literature searches and author knowledge and networks were used to elicit perspectives on epidemiological training, research, funding and workforce. Findings The WPR has the lowest age-standardized disability-adjusted life-years (DALY) rate per 1000 of the six WHO regions, with non-communicable disease making the largest percentage contributions in both low- and middle-income countries (LMICs, 68%) and high-income countries (HICs, 84%) in the WPR. The number of Medline-indexed epidemiological research publications per year was greatest for Japan, Australia and China. However, the rate per head of population was greatest for Micronesia and New Zealand. The substantive focus of research roughly equated with burden of disease patterns. Research capacity (staff, funding, infrastructure) varies hugely between countries. Epidemiology training embedded within academic Masters of Public Health programmes is the dominant vehicle for training in most countries. Field epidemiology and in-service training are also common. The Pacific Island countries and territories, because of sparse populations over large distances and chronic workforce and funding capacity problems, rely on outside agencies (e.g. WHO, universities) for provision of training. Cross-national networks and collaborations are increasing. Communicable disease surveillance and research need consolidation (especially in eastern Asian WPR countries), and non-communicable disease

Epidemiology in Latin America and the Caribbean: current situation and challenges

PubMed Central

Barreto, Sandhi M; Miranda, Jaime J; Figueroa, J Peter; Schmidt, Maria Inês; Munoz, Sergio; Kuri-Morales, P Pablo; Silva, Jarbas B

2012-01-01

Background This article analyses the epidemiological research developments in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). It integrates the series commissioned by the International Epidemiological Association to all WHO Regions to identify global opportunities to promote the development of epidemiology. Methods Health situations of the regions were analysed based on published data on selected mortality, morbidity and risk factors. Epidemiological publication output by country was estimated by Medline bibliometrics. Internet and literature searches and data provided by key informants were used to describe perspectives on epidemiological training, research and funding. Findings Despite important advances in recent decades, LAC remains the world's most unequal region. In 2010, 10% of the LAC's people still lived in conditions of multidimensional poverty, with huge variation among countries. The region has experienced fast and complex epidemiological changes in past decades, combining increasing rates of non-communicable diseases and injuries, and keeping uncontrolled many existing endemic and emerging diseases. Overall, epidemiological publications per year increased from 160 articles between 1961 and 1970 to 2492 between 2001 and 2010. The increase in papers per million inhabitants in the past three decades varied from 57% in Panama to 1339% in Paraguay. Universities are the main epidemiological training providers. There are at least 34 universities and other institutions in the region that offer postgraduate programmes at the master’s and doctoral levels in epidemiology or public health. Most LAC countries rely largely on external funding and donors to initiate and sustain long-term research efforts. Despite the limited resources, the critical mass of LAC researchers has produced significant scientific contributions. Future needs The health research panorama of the region shows enormous regional discrepancies, but great prospects. Improving research and human resources

Epidemiology in Latin America and the Caribbean: current situation and challenges.

PubMed

Barreto, Sandhi M; Miranda, Jaime J; Figueroa, J Peter; Schmidt, Maria Inês; Munoz, Sergio; Kuri-Morales, P Pablo; Silva, Jarbas B

2012-04-01

This article analyses the epidemiological research developments in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). It integrates the series commissioned by the International Epidemiological Association to all WHO Regions to identify global opportunities to promote the development of epidemiology. Health situations of the regions were analysed based on published data on selected mortality, morbidity and risk factors. Epidemiological publication output by country was estimated by Medline bibliometrics. Internet and literature searches and data provided by key informants were used to describe perspectives on epidemiological training, research and funding. Despite important advances in recent decades, LAC remains the world's most unequal region. In 2010, 10% of the LAC's people still lived in conditions of multidimensional poverty, with huge variation among countries. The region has experienced fast and complex epidemiological changes in past decades, combining increasing rates of non-communicable diseases and injuries, and keeping uncontrolled many existing endemic and emerging diseases. Overall, epidemiological publications per year increased from 160 articles between 1961 and 1970 to 2492 between 2001 and 2010. The increase in papers per million inhabitants in the past three decades varied from 57% in Panama to 1339% in Paraguay. Universities are the main epidemiological training providers. There are at least 34 universities and other institutions in the region that offer postgraduate programmes at the master's and doctoral levels in epidemiology or public health. Most LAC countries rely largely on external funding and donors to initiate and sustain long-term research efforts. Despite the limited resources, the critical mass of LAC researchers has produced significant scientific contributions. FUTURE NEEDS: The health research panorama of the region shows enormous regional discrepancies, but great prospects. Improving research and human resources capacity in the region will

A Scan of CDC-Authored Articles on Legal Epidemiology, 2011-2015.

PubMed

Martini, Leila; Presley, David; Klieger, Sarah; Burris, Scott

2016-11-01

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) conducts research on legal epidemiology, the scientific study of law as a factor in the cause, distribution, and prevention of disease. This study describes a scan of articles written by CDC staff members to characterize the frequency and key features of legal epidemiology articles and their distribution across CDC departments and divisions. CDC librarians searched an internal repository for journal articles by CDC staff published from January 1, 2011, to May 31, 2015. Researchers reviewed and coded the abstracts to produce data on key features of the articles. Researchers identified 158 CDC-authored legal epidemiology articles published in 83 journals, most frequently in Preventing Chronic Disease (14 publications), Journal of Public Health Management Practice (10 publications), and Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (9 publications). Most articles concerned the use and impact of law as a deliberate tool of intervention. Thirteen articles addressed the legal infrastructure of public health, and 3 assessed the incidental or unintended effects of nonhealth laws. CDC-authored articles encompassed policy making, implementation, and impact. Literature reviews and studies mapping laws across multiple jurisdictions constituted one-quarter of all publications. Studies addressed laws at the international, national, state, local, and organizational levels. Results of the scan can be used to identify opportunities for the agency to better support research, professional development, networking, publication, and tracking of publication in this emerging field.

A Scan of CDC-Authored Articles on Legal Epidemiology, 2011-2015

PubMed Central

Martini, Leila; Presley, David; Klieger, Sarah

2016-01-01

Objective: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) conducts research on legal epidemiology, the scientific study of law as a factor in the cause, distribution, and prevention of disease. This study describes a scan of articles written by CDC staff members to characterize the frequency and key features of legal epidemiology articles and their distribution across CDC departments and divisions. Methods: CDC librarians searched an internal repository for journal articles by CDC staff published from January 1, 2011, to May 31, 2015. Researchers reviewed and coded the abstracts to produce data on key features of the articles. Results: Researchers identified 158 CDC-authored legal epidemiology articles published in 83 journals, most frequently in Preventing Chronic Disease (14 publications), Journal of Public Health Management Practice (10 publications), and Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (9 publications). Most articles concerned the use and impact of law as a deliberate tool of intervention. Thirteen articles addressed the legal infrastructure of public health, and 3 assessed the incidental or unintended effects of nonhealth laws. CDC-authored articles encompassed policy making, implementation, and impact. Literature reviews and studies mapping laws across multiple jurisdictions constituted one-quarter of all publications. Studies addressed laws at the international, national, state, local, and organizational levels. Conclusion: Results of the scan can be used to identify opportunities for the agency to better support research, professional development, networking, publication, and tracking of publication in this emerging field. PMID:28123227

Key Parameters for the Use of AbobotulinumtoxinA in Aesthetics: Onset and Duration

PubMed Central

Ablon, Glynis; Pickett, Andy

2017-01-01

Abstract Time to onset of response and duration of response are key measures of botulinum toxin efficacy that have a considerable influence on patient satisfaction with aesthetic treatment. However, there is no overall accepted definition of efficacy for aesthetic uses of botulinumtoxinA (BoNT-A). Mechanical methods of assessment do not lend themselves to clinical practice and clinicians rely instead on assessment scales such as the Frontalis Activity Measurement Standard, Frontalis Rating Scale, Wrinkle Severity Scale, and Subject Global Assessment Scale, but not all of these have been fully validated. Onset of activity is typically seen within 5 days of injection, but has also been recorded within 12 hours with abobotulinumtoxinA. Duration of effect is more variable, and is influenced by parameters such as muscle mass (including the effects of age and sex) and type of product used. Even when larger muscles are treated with higher doses of BoNT-A, the duration of effect is still shorter than that for smaller muscles. Muscle injection technique, including dilution of the toxin, the volume of solution injected, and the positioning of the injections, can also have an important influence on onset and duration of activity. Comparison of the efficacy of different forms of BoNT-A must be made with the full understanding that the dosing units are not equivalent. Range of equivalence studies for abobotulinumtoxinA (Azzalure; Ipsen Limited, Slough UK/Galderma, Lausanne CH/Dysport, Ipsen Biopharm Limited, Wrexham UK/Galderma LP, Fort Worth, TX) and onabotulinumtoxinA (Botox; Allergan, Parsippany, NJ) have been conducted, and results indicate that the number of units of abobotulinumtoxinA needs to be approximately twice as high as that of onabotulinumtoxinA to achieve the same effect. An appreciation of the potential influence of all of the parameters that influence onset and duration of activity of BoNT-A, along with a thorough understanding of the anatomy of the face and

Epidemiological Characteristics and Overall Burden of Accidental Injuries in Navarra, Spain: Epidemiology of Injuries in Children.

PubMed

Ferraz-Torres, Marta; Belzunegui-Otano, Tomás; Martínez-García, Oscar; Iriarte-Cerdán, Laura; Salgado-Reguero, Esther

2016-01-01

Injuries caused by accidents or violent situations in pediatric patients are a serious social problem where prevention plays a key role. The aim of this study was to describe the epidemiological situation of pediatric injuries in Spain. A prospective study of pediatric patients receiving care in the Emergency Service of the Complejo Hospitalario de Navarra due to for reasons of accidental injury was conducted. The study covered a period of 1 year and assessed a total of 16 variables. There were a total of 8,876 patients, of whom 56.4% were males. Traumatic injuries such as fractures and craniocerebral trauma were identified as the most frequent injuries, occurring as a result of injuries mainly in the home. In females, there was a decrease in the incidence of injuries related to age. There was a greater incidence at the end of the day, during the weekend, and in the months of March to October. The epidemiological profile of pediatric patients who met with accidents in Navarra, Spain, is described. The knowledge of the main areas and factors related to injuries allows us to improve preventive measures, which would contribute to better control in this region of Spain.

Staphylococcus aureus Infections: Epidemiology, Pathophysiology, Clinical Manifestations, and Management

PubMed Central

Davis, Joshua S.; Eichenberger, Emily; Holland, Thomas L.

2015-01-01

SUMMARY Staphylococcus aureus is a major human pathogen that causes a wide range of clinical infections. It is a leading cause of bacteremia and infective endocarditis as well as osteoarticular, skin and soft tissue, pleuropulmonary, and device-related infections. This review comprehensively covers the epidemiology, pathophysiology, clinical manifestations, and management of each of these clinical entities. The past 2 decades have witnessed two clear shifts in the epidemiology of S. aureus infections: first, a growing number of health care-associated infections, particularly seen in infective endocarditis and prosthetic device infections, and second, an epidemic of community-associated skin and soft tissue infections driven by strains with certain virulence factors and resistance to β-lactam antibiotics. In reviewing the literature to support management strategies for these clinical manifestations, we also highlight the paucity of high-quality evidence for many key clinical questions. PMID:26016486

Never mind the length, feel the quality: The Impact of Long-term Epidemiological Data Sets on Theory, Application and Policy

PubMed Central

Rohani, Pejman; King, Aaron A.

2010-01-01

Infectious diseases have been a prime testing ground for ecological theory. At the same time, the ecological perspective is increasingly recognized as essential in epidemiology. Long-term, spatially-resolved, reliable disease incidence data and the ability to confront them with mechanistic models have been critical in this cross-fertilization. Here, we review some of the key intellectual developments in epidemiology facilitated by long-term data. We proceed to identify research frontiers at the interface of ecology and epidemiology and their associated data needs. PMID:20800928

Emergency response in a global health crisis: epidemiology, ethics, and Ebola application.

PubMed

Salerno, Jennifer; Hlaing, WayWay M; Weiser, Thomas; Striley, Catherine; Schwartz, Lisa; Angulo, Frederick J; Neslund, Verla S

2016-04-01

The link between ethics and epidemiology can go unnoticed in contemporary gatherings of professional epidemiologists or trainees at conferences and workshops, as well as in teaching. Our goal is to provide readers with information about the activities of the College and to provide a broad perspective on a recent major issue in epidemiology. The Ethics Committee of the American College of Epidemiology (ACE) presented a plenary session at the 2015 Annual Meeting in Atlanta, GA, on the complexities of ethics and epidemiology in the context of the 2014-2015 Ebola virus disease outbreak and response in West Africa. This article presents a summary and further discussion of that plenary session. Three main topic areas were presented: clinical trials and ethics in public health emergencies, public health practice, and collaborative work. A number of key ethical concepts were highlighted and discussed in relation to Ebola and the ACE Ethics Guidelines. The Ebola virus disease outbreak is an example of a public health humanitarian crisis from which we hope to better understand the role of professional epidemiologists in public health practice and research and recognize ethical challenges epidemiologists faced. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Lead-acid batteries in micro-hybrid applications. Part I. Selected key parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaeck, S.; Stoermer, A. O.; Kaiser, F.; Koehler, L.; Albers, J.; Kabza, H.

Micro-hybrid electric vehicles were launched by BMW in March 2007. These are equipped with brake energy regeneration (BER) and the automatic start and stop function (ASSF) of the internal combustion engine. These functions are based on common 14 V series components and lead-acid (LA) batteries. The novelty is given by the intelligent onboard energy management, which upgrades the conventional electric system to the micro-hybrid power system (MHPS). In part I of this publication the key factors for the operation of LA batteries in the MHPS are discussed. Especially for BER one is high dynamic charge acceptance (DCA) for effective boost charging. Vehicle rest time is identified as a particular negative parameter for DCA. It can be refreshed by regular fully charging at elevated charge voltage. Thus, the batteries have to be outstandingly robust against overcharge and water loss. This can be accomplished for valve-regulated lead-acid (VRLA) batteries at least if they are mounted in the trunk. ASSF goes along with frequent high-rate loads for warm cranking. The internal resistance determines the drop of the power net voltage during cranking and is preferably low for reasons of power net stability even after years of operation. Investigations have to be done with aged 90 Ah VRLA-absorbent glass mat (AGM) batteries. Battery operation at partial state-of-charge gives a higher risk of deep discharging (overdischarging). Subsequent re-charging then is likely to lead to the formation of micro-short circuits in the absorbent glass mat separator.

Epidemiology as discourse: the politics of development institutions in the Epidemiological Profile of El Salvador

PubMed Central

Aviles, L

2001-01-01

STUDY OBJECTIVE—To determine the ways in which institutions devoted to international development influence epidemiological studies.
DESIGN—This article takes a descriptive epidemiological study of El Salvador, Epidemiological Profile, conducted in 1994 by the US Agency for International Development, as a case study. The methods include discourse analysis in order to uncover the ideological basis of the report and its characteristics as a discourse of development.
SETTING—El Salvador.
RESULTS—The Epidemiological Profile theoretical basis, the epidemiological transition theory, embodies the ethnocentrism of a "colonizer's model of the world." This report follows the logic of a discourse of development by depoliticising development, creating abnormalities, and relying on the development consulting industry. The epidemiological transition theory serves as an ideology that legitimises and dissimulates the international order.
CONCLUSIONS—Even descriptive epidemiological assessments or epidemiological profiles are imbued with theoretical assumptions shaped by the institutional setting under which epidemiological investigations are conducted.


Keywords: El Salvador; politics PMID:11160170

Dynamics of eco-epidemiological model with harvesting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Purnomo, Anna Silvia; Darti, Isnani; Suryanto, Agus

2017-12-01

In this paper, we study an eco-epidemiology model which is derived from S I epidemic model with bilinear incidence rate and modified Leslie Gower predator-prey model with harvesting on susceptible prey. Existence condition and stability of all equilibrium points are discussed for the proposed model. Furthermore, we show that the model exhibits a Hopf bifurcation around interior equilibrium point which is driven by the rate of infection. Our numerical simulations using some different value of parameters confirm our analytical analysis.

Simulation-based Extraction of Key Material Parameters from Atomic Force Microscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alsafi, Huseen; Peninngton, Gray

Models for the atomic force microscopy (AFM) tip and sample interaction contain numerous material parameters that are often poorly known. This is especially true when dealing with novel material systems or when imaging samples that are exposed to complicated interactions with the local environment. In this work we use Monte Carlo methods to extract sample material parameters from the experimental AFM analysis of a test sample. The parameterized theoretical model that we use is based on the Virtual Environment for Dynamic AFM (VEDA) [1]. The extracted material parameters are then compared with the accepted values for our test sample. Using this procedure, we suggest a method that can be used to successfully determine unknown material properties in novel and complicated material systems. We acknowledge Fisher Endowment Grant support from the Jess and Mildred Fisher College of Science and Mathematics,Towson University.

Should the history of epidemiology be taught in epidemiology training programs?

PubMed

Laskaris, Zoey; Morabia, Alfredo

2015-01-01

Currently, there is no evidence concerning the presence of historical content in the epidemiology curricula of the United States and abroad. Similarly, it is not known how epidemiologists view this topic in the context of master's or doctoral level course work. We attempted to fill these knowledge gaps with data from 2 online surveys-Survey I administered to persons in charge of all epidemiology training programs in North America and Survey II to epidemiologists practicing around the world. A substantial minority (39%) of graduate programs in epidemiology in the United States teach a course on the history of the field. In both surveys, the most common reasons selected for teaching such a course were "To build a sense of identity as an epidemiologist" and "As a tool for achieving a deeper understanding into specific methods and concepts." The majority of respondents, from 63 countries, agreed that the history of epidemiology should be included in curricula for graduate students in epidemiology.

Defining the Environment in Gene–Environment Research: Lessons From Social Epidemiology

PubMed Central

Daw, Jonathan; Freese, Jeremy

2013-01-01

In this article, we make the case that social epidemiology provides a useful framework to define the environment within gene–environment (G×E) research. We describe the environment in a multilevel, multidomain, longitudinal framework that accounts for upstream processes influencing health outcomes. We then illustrate the utility of this approach by describing how intermediate levels of social organization, such as neighborhoods or schools, are key environmental components of G×E research. We discuss different models of G×E research and encourage public health researchers to consider the value of including genetic information from their study participants. We also encourage researchers interested in G×E interplay to consider the merits of the social epidemiology model when defining the environment. PMID:23927514

Surveillance and Control of Malaria Transmission Using Remotely Sensed Meteorological and Environmental Parameters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kiang, R.; Adimi, F.; Nigro, J.

2007-01-01

Meteorological and environmental parameters important to malaria transmission include temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, and vegetation conditions. These parameters can most conveniently be obtained using remote sensing. Selected provinces and districts in Thailand and Indonesia are used to illustrate how remotely sensed meteorological and environmental parameters may enhance the capabilities for malaria surveillance and control. Hindcastings based on these environmental parameters have shown good agreement to epidemiological records.

Charting the course for the future of science in healthcare epidemiology: results of a survey of the membership of the Society of Healthcare Epidemiology of America.

PubMed

Sinaii, Ninet

2010-07-01

To describe the results of a survey of members of the Society for Healthcare Epidemiology of America (SHEA) that (1) measured members' perceptions of gaps in the healthcare epidemiology knowledge base and members' priorities for SHEA research goals, (2) assessed whether members would be willing to participate in consortia to address identified gaps in knowledge, and (3) evaluated the need for training for the next generation of investigators in the field of healthcare epidemiology. Electronic and paper survey of members of SHEA, a professional society formed to advance the science of healthcare epidemiology through research and education. All society members were invited to participate. Of 1,289 SHEA members, 593 (46.0%) responded. Respondents identified the following issues as important for the Research Committee of SHEA: setting the scientific agenda for healthcare epidemiology, developing collaborative infrastructure to conduct research, and developing funding mechanisms for research. Respondents ranked multidrug-resistant gram-negative organisms, antimicrobial stewardship, methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus, adherence to effective hand hygiene guidelines, and Clostridium difficile infections as the most important scientific issues facing the field. Respondents ranked inadequate project funding, lack of protected time for research, and inability to obtain a grant, contract, and/or outside funding as the most significant barriers to conducting research. More than 92% of respondents support creating a SHEA research consortium; more than 40% would participate even if no additional funding were available; nearly 90% identified developing research training as a key function for SHEA. These data provide a road map for the SHEA Research Committee for the next decade.

The New Epidemiology--A Challenge to Health Administration. Issues in Epidemiology for Administration.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Crichton, Anne, Ed.; Neuhauser, Duncan, Ed.

The role of epidemiology in health administration is considered in 11 articles, and three course descriptions and a bibliography are provided. Titles and authors include the following: "The Need for Creative Managerial Epidemiology" (Gary L. Filerman); "The Growing Role of Epidemiology in Health Administration" (Maureen M.…

The Role of Epidemiology in Disaster Response Policy Development

PubMed Central

Thorpe, Lorna E; Assari, Shervin; Deppen, Stephen; Glied, Sherry; Lurie, Nicole; Mauer, Matthew P; Mays, Vickie M.; Trapido, Edward

2015-01-01

Purpose Disasters expose the general population and responders to a range of potential contaminants and stressors which may harm physical and mental health. This article addresses the role of epidemiology in informing policies after a disaster to mitigate ongoing exposures, provide care and compensation, and improve preparedness for future disasters. Methods The World Trade Center (WTC) disaster response is used as a case study. We examine how epidemiologic evidence was used to shape post-disaster policy and identify important gaps in early research. Results In the wake of WTC attacks, epidemiologic research played a key role in identifying and characterizing affected populations, assessing environmental exposures, quantifying physical and mental health impacts, and producing evidence to ascribe causation. However, most studies suffered from methodological challenges, including delays, selection biases, poor exposure measurement, and nonstandardized outcomes. Gaps included measuring unmet health needs and financing coverage, as well as coordination across longitudinal cohorts of studies for rare conditions with long latency, such as cancer. Conclusions Epidemiologists can increase their impact on evidence-based policymaking by ensuring core mechanisms are in place prior to a disaster to mount monitoring of responders and other affected populations, improve early exposure assessment efforts, identify critical gaps in scientific knowledge, and coordinate communication of scientific findings to policymakers and the public. PMID:25150446

Continuous variable quantum key distribution: finite-key analysis of composable security against coherent attacks.

PubMed

Furrer, F; Franz, T; Berta, M; Leverrier, A; Scholz, V B; Tomamichel, M; Werner, R F

2012-09-07

We provide a security analysis for continuous variable quantum key distribution protocols based on the transmission of two-mode squeezed vacuum states measured via homodyne detection. We employ a version of the entropic uncertainty relation for smooth entropies to give a lower bound on the number of secret bits which can be extracted from a finite number of runs of the protocol. This bound is valid under general coherent attacks, and gives rise to keys which are composably secure. For comparison, we also give a lower bound valid under the assumption of collective attacks. For both scenarios, we find positive key rates using experimental parameters reachable today.

Epidemiologic trends of leprosy for the 21st century.

PubMed

Schreuder, Pieter A M; Noto, Salvatore; Richardus, Jan Hendrik

2016-01-01

Major gaps still exist in the knowledge about leprosy, particularly with regard to how it spreads. Leprosy epidemiology remains complicated due to the specific characteristics of Mycobacterium leprae. To describe epidemiologic trends for the 21st century, the first part of this paper gives an overview of the epidemiology of leprosy, followed by past trends and the present situation of new-case detection as a proxy of the incidence. The third part, regarding predicted epidemiologic trends for the 21st century, elaborates on the main topic of this paper. With limited diagnostic tools to detect infection with M leprae, other methods are necessary to estimate trends in incidence and transmission. A computer program has been developed for modeling the transmission and control of leprosy (SIMLEP). The effect of failure to sustain early case detection beyond 2005 on leprosy incidence and case detection is shown. Important unanswered questions are whether the incubation period is contagious and how rapid close contacts of leprosy patients are infected. As long as such key questions remain unanswered, it will be difficult to estimate the impact of control strategies on the transmission of M leprae on resulting disease incidence. In the meantime we can expect that the global new-case detection trends will stay more or less stable or only decrease slightly for many years to come. There is a need of new preventive interventions to change this situation and reduce the incidence of leprosy in the 21st century. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Molecular Epidemiology and Genomics of Group A Streptococcus

PubMed Central

Bessen, Debra E.; McShan, W. Michael; Nguyen, Scott V.; Shetty, Amol; Agrawal, Sonia; Tettelin, Hervé

2014-01-01

Streptococcus pyogenes (group A streptococcus; GAS) is a strict human pathogen with a very high prevalence worldwide. This review highlights the genetic organization of the species and the important ecological considerations that impact its evolution. Recent advances are presented on the topics of molecular epidemiology, population biology, molecular basis for genetic change, genome structure and genetic flux, phylogenomics and closely related streptococcal species, and the long- and short-term evolution of GAS. The application of whole genome sequence data to addressing key biological questions is discussed. PMID:25460818

Nanoparticles for Radiation Therapy Enhancement: the Key Parameters

PubMed Central

Retif, Paul; Pinel, Sophie; Toussaint, Magali; Frochot, Céline; Chouikrat, Rima; Bastogne, Thierry; Barberi-Heyob, Muriel

2015-01-01

This review focuses on the radiosensitization strategies that use high-Z nanoparticles. It does not establish an exhaustive list of the works in this field but rather propose constructive criticisms pointing out critical factors that could improve the nano-radiation therapy. Whereas most reviews show the chemists and/or biologists points of view, the present analysis is also seen through the prism of the medical physicist. In particular, we described and evaluated the influence of X-rays energy spectra using a numerical analysis. We observed a lack of standardization in preclinical studies that could partially explain the low number of translation to clinical applications for this innovative therapeutic strategy. Pointing out the critical parameters of high-Z nanoparticles radiosensitization, this review is expected to contribute to a larger preclinical and clinical development. PMID:26155318

Nanoparticles for Radiation Therapy Enhancement: the Key Parameters.

PubMed

Retif, Paul; Pinel, Sophie; Toussaint, Magali; Frochot, Céline; Chouikrat, Rima; Bastogne, Thierry; Barberi-Heyob, Muriel

2015-01-01

This review focuses on the radiosensitization strategies that use high-Z nanoparticles. It does not establish an exhaustive list of the works in this field but rather propose constructive criticisms pointing out critical factors that could improve the nano-radiation therapy. Whereas most reviews show the chemists and/or biologists points of view, the present analysis is also seen through the prism of the medical physicist. In particular, we described and evaluated the influence of X-rays energy spectra using a numerical analysis. We observed a lack of standardization in preclinical studies that could partially explain the low number of translation to clinical applications for this innovative therapeutic strategy. Pointing out the critical parameters of high-Z nanoparticles radiosensitization, this review is expected to contribute to a larger preclinical and clinical development.

Epidemiological information is key when interpreting whole genome sequence data - lessons learned from a large Legionella pneumophila outbreak in Warstein, Germany, 2013.

PubMed

Petzold, Markus; Prior, Karola; Moran-Gilad, Jacob; Harmsen, Dag; Lück, Christian

2017-11-01

IntroductionWhole genome sequencing (WGS) is increasingly used in Legionnaires' disease (LD) outbreak investigations, owing to its higher resolution than sequence-based typing, the gold standard typing method for Legionella pneumophila, in the analysis of endemic strains. Recently, a gene-by-gene typing approach based on 1,521 core genes called core genome multilocus sequence typing (cgMLST) was described that enables a robust and standardised typing of L. pneumophila . Methods : We applied this cgMLST scheme to isolates obtained during the largest outbreak of LD reported so far in Germany. In this outbreak, the epidemic clone ST345 had been isolated from patients and four different environmental sources. In total 42 clinical and environmental isolates were retrospectively typed. Results : Epidemiologically unrelated ST345 isolates were clearly distinguishable from the epidemic clone. Remarkably, epidemic isolates split up into two distinct clusters, ST345-A and ST345-B, each respectively containing a mix of clinical and epidemiologically-related environmental samples. Discussion/conclusion : The outbreak was therefore likely caused by both variants of the single sequence type, which pre-existed in the environmental reservoirs. The two clusters differed by 40 alleles located in two neighbouring genomic regions of ca 42 and 26 kb. Additional analysis supported horizontal gene transfer of the two regions as responsible for the difference between the variants. Both regions comprise virulence genes and have previously been reported to be involved in recombination events. This corroborates the notion that genomic outbreak investigations should always take epidemiological information into consideration when making inferences. Overall, cgMLST proved helpful in disentangling the complex genomic epidemiology of the outbreak.

Overview and Evaluation of Alternative Air Quality ExposureMetrics Used in Recent Air Pollution Epidemiological Studies

EPA Science Inventory

This poster presents selected results from a few of these studies conducted and provides a summary of key findings and lessons learned and recommendations, in order to improve the use of enhanced exposure metrics during future epidemiological studies of air pollution.

The application of HIV molecular epidemiology to public health.

PubMed

Paraskevis, D; Nikolopoulos, G K; Magiorkinis, G; Hodges-Mameletzis, I; Hatzakis, A

2016-12-01

HIV is responsible for one of the largest viral pandemics in human history. Despite a concerted global response for prevention and treatment, the virus persists. Thus, urgent public health action, utilizing novel interventions, is needed to prevent future transmission events, critical to eliminating HIV. For public health planning to prove effective and successful, we need to understand the dynamics of regional epidemics and to intervene appropriately. HIV molecular epidemiology tools as implemented in phylogenetic, phylodynamic and phylogeographic analyses have proven to be powerful tools in public health planning across many studies. Numerous applications with HIV suggest that molecular methods alone or in combination with mathematical modelling can provide inferences about the transmission dynamics, critical epidemiological parameters (prevalence, incidence, effective number of infections, Re, generation times, time between infection and diagnosis), or the spatiotemporal characteristics of epidemics. Molecular tools have been used to assess the impact of an intervention and outbreak investigation which are of great public health relevance. In some settings, molecular sequence data may be more readily available than HIV surveillance data, and can therefore allow for molecular analyses to be conducted more easily. Nonetheless, classic methods have an integral role in monitoring and evaluation of public health programmes, and should supplement emerging techniques from the field of molecular epidemiology. Importantly, molecular epidemiology remains a promising approach in responding to viral diseases. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Parameters of Technological Growth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Starr, Chauncey; Rudman, Richard

1973-01-01

Examines the factors involved in technological growth and identifies the key parameters as societal resources and societal expectations. Concludes that quality of life can only be maintained by reducing population growth, since this parameter is the product of material levels, overcrowding, food, and pollution. (JR)

The spirit of St Louis: the contributions of Lee N. Robins to North American psychiatric epidemiology.

PubMed

Campbell, Nancy D

2014-08-01

This article takes up the history of North American psychiatric epidemiology with reference to production of knowledge concerning sociopathic or antisocial personality disorder and drug dependence, abuse, and/or addiction. These overlapping arenas provide a microcosm within which to explore the larger shift of postwar psychiatric epidemiology from community studies based on psychological scales to studies based on specific diagnostic criteria. This paper places the figure of sociologist Lee Nelken Robins within the context of the Department of Psychiatry in the School of Medicine at Washington University in St Louis, Missouri. The St Louis research group--to which Robins was both marginal and central--developed the basis for specific diagnostic criteria and was joined by Robert Spitzer, Jean Endicott and other architects of DSM-III in reorienting American psychiatry towards medical, biological and epidemiological models. Robins was a key linchpin working at the nexus of the psychiatric epidemiological and sociological drug addiction research networks. This article situates her work within the broader set of societal and governmental transformations leading to the technologically sophisticated turn in American psychiatric epidemiology and research on the aetiology of drug abuse and mental health and illness. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association © The Author 2013; all rights reserved.

Towards Improving our Understanding on the Retrievals of Key Parameters Characterising Land Surface Interactions from Space: Introduction & First Results from the PREMIER-EO Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ireland, Gareth; North, Matthew R.; Petropoulos, George P.; Srivastava, Prashant K.; Hodges, Crona

2015-04-01

Acquiring accurate information on the spatio-temporal variability of soil moisture content (SM) and evapotranspiration (ET) is of key importance to extend our understanding of the Earth system's physical processes, and is also required in a wide range of multi-disciplinary research studies and applications. The utility and applicability of Earth Observation (EO) technology provides an economically feasible solution to derive continuous spatio-temporal estimates of key parameters characterising land surface interactions, including ET as well as SM. Such information is of key value to practitioners, decision makers and scientists alike. The PREMIER-EO project recently funded by High Performance Computing Wales (HPCW) is a research initiative directed towards the development of a better understanding of EO technology's present ability to derive operational estimations of surface fluxes and SM. Moreover, the project aims at addressing knowledge gaps related to the operational estimation of such parameters, and thus contribute towards current ongoing global efforts towards enhancing the accuracy of those products. In this presentation we introduce the PREMIER-EO project, providing a detailed overview of the research aims and objectives for the 1 year duration of the project's implementation. Subsequently, we make available the initial results of the work carried out herein, in particular, related to an all-inclusive and robust evaluation of the accuracy of existing operational products of ET and SM from different ecosystems globally. The research outcomes of this project, once completed, will provide an important contribution towards addressing the knowledge gaps related to the operational estimation of ET and SM. This project results will also support efforts ongoing globally towards the operational development of related products using technologically advanced EO instruments which were launched recently or planned be launched in the next 1-2 years. Key Words: PREMIER

[A literature review on epidemiologic research on sleep disturbances in the elderly].

PubMed

Doi, Yuriko

2015-06-01

One of the issues facing our super-aging society of Japan is to secure the elderly's safety and health. According to the latest 10-year statistics of the National Police Agency, the number of elderly driving deaths 75 years of age and over has risen 1.3 times from 2003 to 2013, whereas driving deaths decreased by less than half among the people under age 75 during the same period of time. This paper reviews the current literature on epidemiologic studies investigating the associations of sleep disturbances with adverse driving events and driving practice among elderly drivers. The results suggest a cognitive behavioral therapy for insomnia as a promising method for improving their driving capacity. Key words: elderly driving, epidemiology, sleep disturbances

The epidemiological modelling of dysthymia: application for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010.

PubMed

Charlson, Fiona J; Ferrari, Alize J; Flaxman, Abraham D; Whiteford, Harvey A

2013-10-01

In order to capture the differences in burden between the subtypes of depression, the Global Burden of Disease 2010 Study for the first time estimated the burden of dysthymia and major depressive disorder separately from the previously used umbrella term 'unipolar depression'. A global summary of epidemiological parameters are necessary inputs in burden of disease calculations for 21 world regions, males and females and for the year 1990, 2005 and 2010. This paper reports findings from a systematic review of global epidemiological data and the subsequent development of an internally consistent epidemiological model of dysthymia. A systematic search was conducted to identify data sources for the prevalence, incidence, remission and excess-mortality of dysthymia using Medline, PsycINFO and EMBASE electronic databases and grey literature. DisMod-MR, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, was used to check the epidemiological parameters for internal consistency and to predict estimates for world regions with no or few data. The systematic review identified 38 studies meeting inclusion criteria which provided 147 data points for 30 countries in 13 of 21 world regions. Prevalence increases in the early ages, peaking at around 50 years. Females have higher prevalence of dysthymia than males. Global pooled prevalence remained constant across time points at 1.55% (95%CI 1.50-1.60). There was very little regional variation in prevalence estimates. There were eight GBD world regions for which we found no data for which DisMod-MR had to impute estimates. The addition of internally consistent epidemiological estimates by world region, age, sex and year for dysthymia contributed to a more comprehensive estimate of mental health burden in GBD 2010. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Earth observation in support of malaria control and epidemiology: MALAREO monitoring approaches.

PubMed

Franke, Jonas; Gebreslasie, Michael; Bauwens, Ides; Deleu, Julie; Siegert, Florian

2015-06-03

Malaria affects about half of the world's population, with the vast majority of cases occuring in Africa. National malaria control programmes aim to reduce the burden of malaria and its negative, socioeconomic effects by using various control strategies (e.g. vector control, environmental management and case tracking). Vector control is the most effective transmission prevention strategy, while environmental factors are the key parameters affecting transmission. Geographic information systems (GIS), earth observation (EO) and spatial modelling are increasingly being recognised as valuable tools for effective management and malaria vector control. Issues previously inhibiting the use of EO in epidemiology and malaria control such as poor satellite sensor performance, high costs and long turnaround times, have since been resolved through modern technology. The core goal of this study was to develop and implement the capabilities of EO data for national malaria control programmes in South Africa, Swaziland and Mozambique. High- and very high resolution (HR and VHR) land cover and wetland maps were generated for the identification of potential vector habitats and human activities, as well as geoinformation on distance to wetlands for malaria risk modelling, population density maps, habitat foci maps and VHR household maps. These products were further used for modelling malaria incidence and the analysis of environmental factors that favour vector breeding. Geoproducts were also transferred to the staff of national malaria control programmes in seven African countries to demonstrate how EO data and GIS can support vector control strategy planning and monitoring. The transferred EO products support better epidemiological understanding of environmental factors related to malaria transmission, and allow for spatio-temporal targeting of malaria control interventions, thereby improving the cost-effectiveness of interventions.

Modelling Marek's Disease Virus (MDV) infection: parameter estimates for mortality rate and infectiousness

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Marek's disease virus (MDV) is an economically important oncogenic herpesvirus of poultry. Since the 1960s, increasingly virulent strains have caused continued poultry industry production losses worldwide. To understand the mechanisms of this virulence evolution and to evaluate the epidemiological consequences of putative control strategies, it is imperative to understand how virulence is defined and how this correlates with host mortality and infectiousness during MDV infection. We present a mathematical approach to quantify key epidemiological parameters. Host lifespan, virus latent periods and host viral shedding rates were estimated for unvaccinated and vaccinated birds, infected with one of three MDV strains. The strains had previously been pathotyped to assign virulence scores according to pathogenicity of strains in hosts. Results Our analyses show that strains of higher virulence have a higher viral shedding rate, and more rapidly kill hosts. Vaccination enhances host life expectancy but does not significantly reduce the shedding rate of the virus. While the primary latent period of the virus does not vary with challenge strain nor vaccine treatment of host, the time until the maximum viral shedding rate is increased with vaccination. Conclusions Our approach provides the tools necessary for a formal analysis of the evolution of virulence in MDV, and potentially simpler and cheaper approaches to comparing the virulence of MDV strains. PMID:22078942

Molecular epidemiology of African sleeping sickness.

PubMed

Hide, G; Tait, A

2009-10-01

Human sleeping sickness in Africa, caused by Trypanosoma brucei spp. raises a number of questions. Despite the widespread distribution of the tsetse vectors and animal trypanosomiasis, human disease is only found in discrete foci which periodically give rise to epidemics followed by periods of endemicity A key to unravelling this puzzle is a detailed knowledge of the aetiological agents responsible for different patterns of disease--knowledge that is difficult to achieve using traditional microscopy. The science of molecular epidemiology has developed a range of tools which have enabled us to accurately identify taxonomic groups at all levels (species, subspecies, populations, strains and isolates). Using these tools, we can now investigate the genetic interactions within and between populations of Trypanosoma brucei and gain an understanding of the distinction between human- and nonhuman-infective subspecies. In this review, we discuss the development of these tools, their advantages and disadvantages and describe how they have been used to understand parasite genetic diversity, the origin of epidemics, the role of reservoir hosts and the population structure. Using the specific case of T.b. rhodesiense in Uganda, we illustrate how molecular epidemiology has enabled us to construct a more detailed understanding of the origins, generation and dynamics of sleeping sickness epidemics.

Identifying socioeconomic, epidemiological and operational scenarios for tuberculosis control in Brazil: an ecological study.

PubMed

Pelissari, Daniele Maria; Rocha, Marli Souza; Bartholomay, Patricia; Sanchez, Mauro Niskier; Duarte, Elisabeth Carmen; Arakaki-Sanchez, Denise; Dantas, Cíntia Oliveira; Jacobs, Marina Gasino; Andrade, Kleydson Bonfim; Codenotti, Stefano Barbosa; Andrade, Elaine Silva Nascimento; Araújo, Wildo Navegantes de; Costa, Fernanda Dockhorn; Ramalho, Walter Massa; Diaz-Quijano, Fredi Alexander

2018-06-06

To identify scenarios based on socioeconomic, epidemiological and operational healthcare factors associated with tuberculosis incidence in Brazil. Ecological study. The study was based on new patients with tuberculosis and epidemiological/operational variables of the disease from the Brazilian National Information System for Notifiable Diseases and the Mortality Information System. We also analysed socioeconomic and demographic variables. The units of analysis were the Brazilian municipalities, which in 2015 numbered 5570 but 5 were excluded due to the absence of socioeconomic information. Tuberculosis incidence rate in 2015. We evaluated as independent variables the socioeconomic (2010), epidemiological and operational healthcare indicators of tuberculosis (2014 or 2015) using negative binomial regression. Municipalities were clustered by the k-means method considering the variables identified in multiple regression models. We identified two clusters according to socioeconomic variables associated with the tuberculosis incidence rate (unemployment rate and household crowding): a higher socioeconomic scenario (n=3482 municipalities) with a mean tuberculosis incidence rate of 16.3/100 000 population and a lower socioeconomic scenario (2083 municipalities) with a mean tuberculosis incidence rate of 22.1/100 000 population. In a second stage of clusterisation, we defined four subgroups in each of the socioeconomic scenarios using epidemiological and operational variables such as tuberculosis mortality rate, AIDS case detection rate and proportion of vulnerable population among patients with tuberculosis. Some of the subscenarios identified were characterised by fragility in their information systems, while others were characterised by the concentration of tuberculosis cases in key populations. Clustering municipalities in scenarios allowed us to classify them according to the socioeconomic, epidemiological and operational variables associated with tuberculosis

Behavioral mechanisms in HIV epidemiology and prevention: past, present, and future roles.

PubMed

Bingenheimer, Jeffrey B; Geronimus, Arline T

2009-09-01

In the 1980s, behavioral variations across geographically and socially defined populations were the central focus of AIDS research, and behavior change was seen as the primary means of controlling HIV epidemics. Today, biological mechanisms--especially other sexually transmitted infections, antiretroviral therapy, and male circumcision--predominate in HIV epidemiology and prevention. We describe several reasons for this shift in emphasis. Although the shift is understandable, we argue for a sustained focus on behavioral mechanisms in HIV research in order to realize the theoretical promise of interventions targeting the biological aspects of HIV risk. We also provide evidence to suggest that large reductions in HIV prevalence may be accomplished by small changes in behavior. Moreover, we contend that behavioral mechanisms will find their proper place in HIV epidemiology and prevention only when investigators adopt a conceptual model that treats prevalence as a determinant as well as an outcome of behavior and that explicitly recognizes the dynamic interdependence between behavior and other epidemiological and demographic parameters.

Fine-tuning key parameters of an integrated reactor system for the simultaneous removal of COD, sulfate and ammonium and elemental sulfur reclamation.

PubMed

Yuan, Ye; Chen, Chuan; Liang, Bin; Huang, Cong; Zhao, Youkang; Xu, Xijun; Tan, Wenbo; Zhou, Xu; Gao, Shuang; Sun, Dezhi; Lee, Duujong; Zhou, Jizhong; Wang, Aijie

2014-03-30

In this paper, we proposed an integrated reactor system for simultaneous removal of COD, sulfate and ammonium (integrated C-S-N removal system) and investigated the key parameters of the system for a high level of elemental sulfur (S(0)) production. The system consisted of 4 main units: sulfate reduction and organic carbon removal (SR-CR), autotrophic and heterotrophic denitrifying sulfide removal (A&H-DSR), sulfur reclamation (SR), and aerated filter for aerobic nitrification (AN). In the system, the effects of key operational parameters on production of elemental sulfur were investigated, including hydraulic retention time (HRT) of each unit, sulfide/nitrate (S(2-)-S/NO3(-)-N) ratios, reflux ratios between the A&H-DSR and AN units, and loading rates of chemical oxygen demand (COD), sulfate and ammonium. Physico-chemical characteristics of biosulfur were studied for acquiring efficient S(0) recovery. The experiments successfully explored the optimum parameters for each unit and demonstrated 98% COD, 98% sulfate and 78% nitrogen removal efficiency. The optimum HRTs for SR-CR, A&H-DSR and AN were 12h, 3h and 3h, respectively. The reflux ratio of 3 could provide adequate S(2-)-S/NO3(-)-N ratio (approximately 1:1) to the A&H-DSR unit for obtaining maximum sulfur production. In this system, the maximum production of S(0) reached 90%, but only 60% S(0) was reclaimed from effluent. The S(0) that adhered to the outer layer of granules was deposited in the bottom of the A&H-DSR unit. Finally, the microbial community structure of the corresponding unit at different operational stage were analyzed by 16S rRNA gene based high throughput Illumina MiSeq sequencing and the potential function of dominant species were discussed. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Epidemiological causality.

PubMed

Morabia, Alfredo

2005-01-01

Epidemiological methods, which combine population thinking and group comparisons, can primarily identify causes of disease in populations. There is therefore a tension between our intuitive notion of a cause, which we want to be deterministic and invariant at the individual level, and the epidemiological notion of causes, which are invariant only at the population level. Epidemiologists have given heretofore a pragmatic solution to this tension. Causal inference in epidemiology consists in checking the logical coherence of a causality statement and determining whether what has been found grossly contradicts what we think we already know: how strong is the association? Is there a dose-response relationship? Does the cause precede the effect? Is the effect biologically plausible? Etc. This approach to causal inference can be traced back to the English philosophers David Hume and John Stuart Mill. On the other hand, the mode of establishing causality, devised by Jakob Henle and Robert Koch, which has been fruitful in bacteriology, requires that in every instance the effect invariably follows the cause (e.g., inoculation of Koch bacillus and tuberculosis). This is incompatible with epidemiological causality which has to deal with probabilistic effects (e.g., smoking and lung cancer), and is therefore invariant only for the population.

A critical look at descriptive epidemiology of sexual dysfunction in Asia compared to the rest of the world - a call for evidence-based data.

PubMed

Lewis, Ronald W

2013-03-01

Recently evidence-based medicine has been applied to comparative epidemiological papers regarding sexual dysfunction that have appeared in the literature. This review is intended to focus the readers on a validated and standardized methodological evidence-based process for preparing such articles. It reviews four key articles that have been published in the English language that have obtained a high evidence-based score for reliability that have included descriptive epidemiology of sexual dysfunctions in men and women in Asia compared to the rest of the world. These four papers are analyzed in detail in order to provide stress of what constitutes evidence-based studies in descriptive epidemiology for sexual function. As can be seen there has not yet been a perfect article that compares the prevalence of sexual function in Asia compared to the rest of the world since there are key methodological problems in the collection of the data. In addition, there is a paucity of incidence studies for sexual dysfunction in Asian populations. The readers are encouraged to use this data in preparation of future descriptive epidemiological studies that involve Asian countries.

Soil biochar amendment as a climate change mitigation tool: Key parameters and mechanisms involved.

PubMed

Brassard, Patrick; Godbout, Stéphane; Raghavan, Vijaya

2016-10-01

Biochar, a solid porous material obtained from the carbonization of biomass under low or no oxygen conditions, has been proposed as a climate change mitigation tool because it is expected to sequester carbon (C) for centuries and to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from soils. This review aimed to identify key biochar properties and production parameters that have an effect on these specific applications of the biochar. Moreover, mechanisms involved in interactions between biochar and soils were highlighted. Following a compilation and comparison of the characteristics of 76 biochars from 40 research studies, biochars with a lower N content, and consequently a higher C/N ratio (>30), were found to be more suitable for mitigation of N2O emissions from soils. Moreover, biochars produced at a higher pyrolysis temperature, and with O/C ratio <0.2, H/Corg ratio <0.4 and volatile matter below 80% may have high C sequestration potential. Based on these observations, biochar production and application to the field can be used as a tool to mitigate climate change. However, it is important to determine the pyrolysis conditions and feedstock needed to produce a biochar with the desired properties for a specific application. More research studies are needed to identify the exact mechanisms involved following biochar amendment to soil. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantitative Serum Nuclear Magnetic Resonance Metabolomics in Large-Scale Epidemiology: A Primer on -Omic Technologies

PubMed Central

Kangas, Antti J; Soininen, Pasi; Lawlor, Debbie A; Davey Smith, George; Ala-Korpela, Mika

2017-01-01

Abstract Detailed metabolic profiling in large-scale epidemiologic studies has uncovered novel biomarkers for cardiometabolic diseases and clarified the molecular associations of established risk factors. A quantitative metabolomics platform based on nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy has found widespread use, already profiling over 400,000 blood samples. Over 200 metabolic measures are quantified per sample; in addition to many biomarkers routinely used in epidemiology, the method simultaneously provides fine-grained lipoprotein subclass profiling and quantification of circulating fatty acids, amino acids, gluconeogenesis-related metabolites, and many other molecules from multiple metabolic pathways. Here we focus on applications of magnetic resonance metabolomics for quantifying circulating biomarkers in large-scale epidemiology. We highlight the molecular characterization of risk factors, use of Mendelian randomization, and the key issues of study design and analyses of metabolic profiling for epidemiology. We also detail how integration of metabolic profiling data with genetics can enhance drug development. We discuss why quantitative metabolic profiling is becoming widespread in epidemiology and biobanking. Although large-scale applications of metabolic profiling are still novel, it seems likely that comprehensive biomarker data will contribute to etiologic understanding of various diseases and abilities to predict disease risks, with the potential to translate into multiple clinical settings. PMID:29106475

Vertebrate reservoirs and secondary epidemiological cycles of vector-borne diseases.

PubMed

Kock, R A

2015-04-01

Vector-borne diseases of importance to human and domestic animal health are listed and the increasing emergence of syndromes, new epidemiological cycles and distributions are highlighted. These diseases involve a multitude of vectors and hosts, frequently for the same pathogen, and involve natural enzootic cycles, wild reservoirs and secondary epidemiological cycles, sometimes affecting humans and domestic animals. On occasions the main reservoir is in the domestic environment. Drivers for secondary cycles are mainly related to human impacts and activities and therefore, for purposes of prevention and control, the focus needs to be on the socioecology of the diseases. Technical and therapeutical solutions exist, and for control there needs to be a clear understanding of the main vertebrate hosts or reservoirs and the main vectors. The targets of interventions are usually the vector and/or secondary epidemiological cycles and, in the case of humans and domestic animals, the spillover or incidental hosts are treated. More attention needs to be given to the importance of the political economy in relation to vector-borne diseases, as many key drivers arise from globalisation, climate change and changes in structural ecologies. Attention to reducing the risk of emergence of new infection cycles through better management of the human-animal-environment interface is urgently needed.

Epidemiological Implications of Host Biodiversity and Vector Biology: Key Insights from Simple Models.

PubMed

Dobson, Andrew D M; Auld, Stuart K J R

2016-04-01

Models used to investigate the relationship between biodiversity change and vector-borne disease risk often do not explicitly include the vector; they instead rely on a frequency-dependent transmission function to represent vector dynamics. However, differences between classes of vector (e.g., ticks and insects) can cause discrepancies in epidemiological responses to environmental change. Using a pair of disease models (mosquito- and tick-borne), we simulated substitutive and additive biodiversity change (where noncompetent hosts replaced or were added to competent hosts, respectively), while considering different relationships between vector and host densities. We found important differences between classes of vector, including an increased likelihood of amplified disease risk under additive biodiversity change in mosquito models, driven by higher vector biting rates. We also draw attention to more general phenomena, such as a negative relationship between initial infection prevalence in vectors and likelihood of dilution, and the potential for a rise in density of infected vectors to occur simultaneously with a decline in proportion of infected hosts. This has important implications; the density of infected vectors is the most valid metric for primarily zoonotic infections, while the proportion of infected hosts is more relevant for infections where humans are a primary host.

Cost-effective control of plant disease when epidemiological knowledge is incomplete: modelling Bahia bark scaling of citrus.

PubMed

Cunniffe, Nik J; Laranjeira, Francisco F; Neri, Franco M; DeSimone, R Erik; Gilligan, Christopher A

2014-08-01

A spatially-explicit, stochastic model is developed for Bahia bark scaling, a threat to citrus production in north-eastern Brazil, and is used to assess epidemiological principles underlying the cost-effectiveness of disease control strategies. The model is fitted via Markov chain Monte Carlo with data augmentation to snapshots of disease spread derived from a previously-reported multi-year experiment. Goodness-of-fit tests strongly supported the fit of the model, even though the detailed etiology of the disease is unknown and was not explicitly included in the model. Key epidemiological parameters including the infection rate, incubation period and scale of dispersal are estimated from the spread data. This allows us to scale-up the experimental results to predict the effect of the level of initial inoculum on disease progression in a typically-sized citrus grove. The efficacies of two cultural control measures are assessed: altering the spacing of host plants, and roguing symptomatic trees. Reducing planting density can slow disease spread significantly if the distance between hosts is sufficiently large. However, low density groves have fewer plants per hectare. The optimum density of productive plants is therefore recovered at an intermediate host spacing. Roguing, even when detection of symptomatic plants is imperfect, can lead to very effective control. However, scouting for disease symptoms incurs a cost. We use the model to balance the cost of scouting against the number of plants lost to disease, and show how to determine a roguing schedule that optimises profit. The trade-offs underlying the two optima we identify-the optimal host spacing and the optimal roguing schedule-are applicable to many pathosystems. Our work demonstrates how a carefully parameterised mathematical model can be used to find these optima. It also illustrates how mathematical models can be used in even this most challenging of situations in which the underlying epidemiology is ill-understood.

Combining Radiation Epidemiology With Molecular Biology-Changing From Health Risk Estimates to Therapeutic Intervention.

PubMed

Abend, Michael; Port, Matthias

2016-08-01

The authors herein summarize six presentations dedicated to the key session "molecular radiation epidemiology" of the ConRad meeting 2015. These presentations were chosen in order to highlight the promise when combining conventional radiation epidemiology with molecular biology. Conventional radiation epidemiology uses dose estimates for risk predictions on health. However, combined with molecular biology, dose-dependent bioindicators of effect hold the promise to improve clinical diagnostics and to provide target molecules for potential therapeutic intervention. One out of the six presentations exemplified the use of radiation-induced molecular changes as biomarkers of exposure by measuring stabile chromosomal translocations. The remaining five presentations focused on molecular changes used as bioindicators of the effect. These bioindicators of the effect could be used for diagnostic purposes on colon cancers (genomic instability), thyroid cancer (CLIP2), or head and neck squamous cell cancers. Therapeutic implications of gene expression changes were examined in Chernobyl thyroid cancer victims and Mayak workers.

Epidemiology of sexual dysfunction in Asia compared to the rest of the world

PubMed Central

Lewis, Ronald W

2011-01-01

There have been a limited number of epidemiological studies published on sexual disorders in persons from Asia. This paper aims to assess the reports of sexual dysfunction epidemiological studies published in the English language that involved Asian countries. Key points are summarized in this paper from nine epidemiological papers on sexual dysfunction from Asia that were published in the English language. Seven met the criteria for evidence-based studies reaching a Prins score of at least 10 or more. Papers included in this report came from national and regional representative studies in peer review journals. These results for sexual dysfunction in the nine papers are summarized for various sexual dysfunctions in men and women in Asian countries. In three of these, worldwide data were presented in the same paper allowing comparisons with Asian data on prevalence rates. Detailed descriptions from each of these studies are presented in paragraph form. More detailed data on erectile dysfunction (ED) is presented in a tabular form. Collectively, there seems to be a need for country- and population-specific further descriptive and analytical epidemiological studies in all of the sexual disorders from Asia. This critical review paper should help guide these studies for reaching evidence-based literature standards. PMID:21076440

Mapping epidemiology's past to inform its future: metaknowledge analysis of epidemiologic topics in leading journals, 1974-2013.

PubMed

Trinquart, Ludovic; Galea, Sandro

2015-07-15

An empiric perspective on what epidemiology has studied over time might inform discussions about future directions for the discipline. We aimed to identify the main areas of epidemiologic inquiry and determine how they evolved over time in 5 high-impact epidemiologic journals. We analyzed the titles and abstracts of 20,895 articles that were published between 1974 and 2013. In 5 time periods that reflected approximately equal numbers of articles, we identified the main topics by clustering terms based on co-occurrence. Infectious disease and cardiovascular disease epidemiology were the prevailing topics over the 5 periods. Cancer epidemiology was a major topic from 1974 to 2001 but disappeared thereafter. Nutritional epidemiology gained relative importance from 1974 to 2013. Environmental epidemiology appeared during 1996-2001 and continued to be important, whereas 2 clusters related to methodology and meta-analysis in genetics appeared during 2008-2013. Several areas of epidemiology, including injury or psychiatric epidemiology, did not make an appearance as major topics at any time. In an ancillary analysis of 6 high-impact general medicine journals, we found patterns of epidemiologic articles that were overall consistent with the findings in epidemiologic journals. This metaknowledge investigation allowed identification of the dominant topics in and conversely those that were absent from 5 major epidemiologic journals. We discuss implications for the field. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Epidemiology for the nuclear medicine technologist.

PubMed

Bolus, N E

2001-09-01

The purpose of this article is to introduce the nuclear medicine technologist to the field of epidemiology. There are many applications of epidemiology in nuclear medicine, including research studies that deal with the causes of disease or ways to prevent disease from occurring and investigating the possible effects of ionizing radiation on occupational workers and the general public. One use of an epidemiologic study is to suggest ways to reduce the occurrence of a disease. After reading this article, the nuclear medicine technologist will be familiar with: a) the history and underlying assumptions of epidemiology, b) types of epidemiologic studies, c) what is a valid statistical association for an epidemiologic study, d) proper judgment of cause and effect relationships, e) definitions of epidemiologic terms, and f) an example of a nuclear medicine research study.

Performance of device-independent quantum key distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Zhu; Zhao, Qi; Ma, Xiongfeng

2016-07-01

Quantum key distribution provides information-theoretically-secure communication. In practice, device imperfections may jeopardise the system security. Device-independent quantum key distribution solves this problem by providing secure keys even when the quantum devices are untrusted and uncharacterized. Following a recent security proof of the device-independent quantum key distribution, we improve the key rate by tightening the parameter choice in the security proof. In practice where the system is lossy, we further improve the key rate by taking into account the loss position information. From our numerical simulation, our method can outperform existing results. Meanwhile, we outline clear experimental requirements for implementing device-independent quantum key distribution. The maximal tolerable error rate is 1.6%, the minimal required transmittance is 97.3%, and the minimal required visibility is 96.8 % .

Virally associated arthritis 2008: clinical, epidemiologic, and pathophysiologic considerations

PubMed Central

Vassilopoulos, Dimitrios; Calabrese, Leonard H

2008-01-01

Several viruses have been associated with the development of inflammatory arthritis, including the hepatitis viruses (hepatitis B virus and hepatitis C virus), HIV, the parvovirus B19, the human T-cell lymphotropic virus-I, and the alphaviruses. Here, we review the epidemiology, the pathophysiological mechanisms, the pertinent clinical and laboratory findings as well as the principles of therapy of the most common virus-associated arthritides. We believe that the knowledge of these key diagnostic and therapeutic features of virus-associated arthritides is important for the rheumatologist of the 21st century. PMID:18828883

Chronic pain epidemiology – where do lifestyle factors fit in?

PubMed Central

Torrance, Nicola; Smith, Blair H

2013-01-01

Chronic pain is common and complex and has a large impact on individuals and society. Good epidemiological pain data provide key information on the use of resources (both in general practice and in specialist clinics), insight into factors that lead to or favour chronicity and the design of interventions aimed at reducing or preventing the effects of chronic pain. This review aims to highlight the important factors associated with chronic pain, including those factors which are amenable to lifestyle intervention. PMID:26516524

Traumatic Brain Injury in the United States: An Epidemiologic Overview

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-01-01

discussed. Mt Sinai J Med 76:105–110, 2009.  2009 Mount Sinai School of Medicine Key Words: epidemiology, head injury, traumatic brain injury. A...traumatic brain injury in the civilian population of the United States. J Head Trauma Rehabil 2008; 23: 394–400. 3. Sosin DM, Sniezek JE, Thurman DJ...consciousness, a practical scale. Lancet 1974; 2: 81–84. 5. Kay T, Harrington DE, Adams R, et al. Definition of mild traumatic brain injury. J Head

Epidemiological Transition and the Double Burden of Disease in Accra, Ghana

PubMed Central

de-Graft Aikins, Ama

2010-01-01

It has long been recognized that as societies modernize, they experience significant changes in their patterns of health and disease. Despite rapid modernization across the globe, there are relatively few detailed case studies of changes in health and disease within specific countries especially for sub-Saharan African countries. This paper presents evidence to illustrate the nature and speed of the epidemiological transition in Accra, Ghana’s capital city. As the most urbanized and modernized Ghanaian city, and as the national center of multidisciplinary research since becoming state capital in 1877, Accra constitutes an important case study for understanding the epidemiological transition in African cities. We review multidisciplinary research on culture, development, health, and disease in Accra since the late nineteenth century, as well as relevant work on Ghana’s socio-economic and demographic changes and burden of chronic disease. Our review indicates that the epidemiological transition in Accra reflects a protracted polarized model. A “protracted” double burden of infectious and chronic disease constitutes major causes of morbidity and mortality. This double burden is polarized across social class. While wealthy communities experience higher risk of chronic diseases, poor communities experience higher risk of infectious diseases and a double burden of infectious and chronic diseases. Urbanization, urban poverty and globalization are key factors in the transition. We explore the structures and processes of these factors and consider the implications for the epidemiological transition in other African cities. PMID:20803094

International Lymphoma Epidemiology Consortium

Cancer.gov

The InterLymph Consortium, or formally the International Consortium of Investigators Working on Non-Hodgkin's Lymphoma Epidemiologic Studies, is an open scientific forum for epidemiologic research in non-Hodgkin's lymphoma.

Epidemiological information is key when interpreting whole genome sequence data – lessons learned from a large Legionella pneumophila outbreak in Warstein, Germany, 2013

PubMed Central

Petzold, Markus; Prior, Karola; Moran-Gilad, Jacob; Harmsen, Dag; Lück, Christian

2017-01-01

Introduction Whole genome sequencing (WGS) is increasingly used in Legionnaires’ disease (LD) outbreak investigations, owing to its higher resolution than sequence-based typing, the gold standard typing method for Legionella pneumophila, in the analysis of endemic strains. Recently, a gene-by-gene typing approach based on 1,521 core genes called core genome multilocus sequence typing (cgMLST) was described that enables a robust and standardised typing of L. pneumophila. Methods: We applied this cgMLST scheme to isolates obtained during the largest outbreak of LD reported so far in Germany. In this outbreak, the epidemic clone ST345 had been isolated from patients and four different environmental sources. In total 42 clinical and environmental isolates were retrospectively typed. Results: Epidemiologically unrelated ST345 isolates were clearly distinguishable from the epidemic clone. Remarkably, epidemic isolates split up into two distinct clusters, ST345-A and ST345-B, each respectively containing a mix of clinical and epidemiologically-related environmental samples. Discussion/conclusion: The outbreak was therefore likely caused by both variants of the single sequence type, which pre-existed in the environmental reservoirs. The two clusters differed by 40 alleles located in two neighbouring genomic regions of ca 42 and 26 kb. Additional analysis supported horizontal gene transfer of the two regions as responsible for the difference between the variants. Both regions comprise virulence genes and have previously been reported to be involved in recombination events. This corroborates the notion that genomic outbreak investigations should always take epidemiological information into consideration when making inferences. Overall, cgMLST proved helpful in disentangling the complex genomic epidemiology of the outbreak. PMID:29162202

Epidemiological evidence in forensic pharmacovigilance.

PubMed

Persaud, Nav; Healy, David

2012-01-01

Until recently epidemiological evidence was not regarded as helpful in determining cause and effect. It generated associations that then had to be explained in terms of bio-mechanisms and applied to individual patients. A series of legal cases surrounding possible birth defects triggered by doxylamine (Bendectin) and connective tissue disorders linked to breast implants made it clear that in some instances epidemiological evidence might have a more important role, but the pendulum swung too far so that epidemiological evidence has in recent decades been given an unwarranted primacy, partly perhaps because it suits the interests of certain stakeholders. Older and more recent epidemiological studies on doxylamine and other antihistamines are reviewed to bring out the ambiguities and pitfalls of an undue reliance on epidemiological studies.

Prediction of Geomagnetic Activity and Key Parameters in High-latitude Ionosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Khazanov, George V.; Lyatsky, Wladislaw; Tan, Arjun; Ridley, Aaron

2007-01-01

Prediction of geomagnetic activity and related events in the Earth's magnetosphere and ionosphere are important tasks of US Space Weather Program. Prediction reliability is dependent on the prediction method, and elements included in the prediction scheme. Two of the main elements of such prediction scheme are: an appropriate geomagnetic activity index, and an appropriate coupling function (the combination of solar wind parameters providing the best correlation between upstream solar wind data and geomagnetic activity). We have developed a new index of geomagnetic activity, the Polar Magnetic (PM) index and an improved version of solar wind coupling function. PM index is similar to the existing polar cap PC index but it shows much better correlation with upstream solar wind/IMF data and other events in the magnetosphere and ionosphere. We investigate the correlation of PM index with upstream solar wind/IMF data for 10 years (1995-2004) that include both low and high solar activity. We also have introduced a new prediction function for the predicting of cross-polar-cap voltage and Joule heating based on using both PM index and upstream solar wind/IMF data. As we show such prediction function significantly increase the reliability of prediction of these important parameters. The correlation coefficients between the actual and predicted values of these parameters are approx. 0.9 and higher.

Inference of epidemiological parameters from household stratified data

PubMed Central

Walker, James N.; Ross, Joshua V.

2017-01-01

We consider a continuous-time Markov chain model of SIR disease dynamics with two levels of mixing. For this so-called stochastic households model, we provide two methods for inferring the model parameters—governing within-household transmission, recovery, and between-household transmission—from data of the day upon which each individual became infectious and the household in which each infection occurred, as might be available from First Few Hundred studies. Each method is a form of Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo that allows us to calculate a joint posterior distribution for all parameters and hence the household reproduction number and the early growth rate of the epidemic. The first method performs exact Bayesian inference using a standard data-augmentation approach; the second performs approximate Bayesian inference based on a likelihood approximation derived from branching processes. These methods are compared for computational efficiency and posteriors from each are compared. The branching process is shown to be a good approximation and remains computationally efficient as the amount of data is increased. PMID:29045456

Development and application of Human Genome Epidemiology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Jingwen

2017-12-01

Epidemiology is a science that studies distribution of diseases and health in population and its influencing factors, it also studies how to prevent and cure disease and promote health strategies and measures. Epidemiology has developed rapidly in recent years and it is an intercross subject with various other disciplines to form a series of branch disciplines such as Genetic epidemiology, molecular epidemiology, drug epidemiology and tumor epidemiology. With the implementation and completion of Human Genome Project (HGP), Human Genome Epidemiology (HuGE) has emerged at this historic moment. In this review, the development of Human Genome Epidemiology, research content, the construction and structure of relevant network, research standards, as well as the existing results and problems are briefly outlined.

Emerging trends in geospatial artificial intelligence (geoAI): potential applications for environmental epidemiology.

PubMed

VoPham, Trang; Hart, Jaime E; Laden, Francine; Chiang, Yao-Yi

2018-04-17

Geospatial artificial intelligence (geoAI) is an emerging scientific discipline that combines innovations in spatial science, artificial intelligence methods in machine learning (e.g., deep learning), data mining, and high-performance computing to extract knowledge from spatial big data. In environmental epidemiology, exposure modeling is a commonly used approach to conduct exposure assessment to determine the distribution of exposures in study populations. geoAI technologies provide important advantages for exposure modeling in environmental epidemiology, including the ability to incorporate large amounts of big spatial and temporal data in a variety of formats; computational efficiency; flexibility in algorithms and workflows to accommodate relevant characteristics of spatial (environmental) processes including spatial nonstationarity; and scalability to model other environmental exposures across different geographic areas. The objectives of this commentary are to provide an overview of key concepts surrounding the evolving and interdisciplinary field of geoAI including spatial data science, machine learning, deep learning, and data mining; recent geoAI applications in research; and potential future directions for geoAI in environmental epidemiology.

Sero-epidemiology and hemato-biochemical study of bovine leptospirosis in flood affected zone of Pakistan.

PubMed

Ijaz, Muhammad; Abbas, Syed Nazar; Farooqi, Shahid Hussain; Aqib, Amjad Islam; Anwar, Ghulam Ali; Rehman, Abdul; Ali, Muhammad Muddassir; Mehmood, Khalid; Khan, Amjad

2018-01-01

The bovine leptospirosis is an economically important zoonotic disease of flood affected areas worldwide, but scarce information is available about its epidemiology in Pakistan. This is a first study on sero-epidemiology of bovine leptospirosis in Pakistan. The objectives of this study were to investigate the sero-prevalence and associated risk factors of bovine leptospirosis in flood affected zone of Punjab, Pakistan. A total of 385 serum samples were randomly collected from four tehsils of district Muzaffargarh, Pakistan. The serum samples were subjected to indirect ELISA for the detection of anti-leptospira antibodies. The overall sero-prevalence of leptospirosis was 30.39%. The prevalence was significantly higher (p<0.001) in cattle (56.25%) than buffaloes (4.66%). The key risk factors identified based on multivariable logistic regression were; confined system of rearing, flooded area, and lesser to graduate level of education as risk factors for leptospirosis. The values of hematological parameters varied significantly (p<0.05) for Hb, TEC and PCV while there was no significant (p>0.05) difference among TLC values among sero-positive and sero-negative animals. The serum biochemical profile revealed significant differences (p<0.05) in values of ALT, AST and creatinine among the sero-positive and negative animals. Hence, it can be concluded that leptospirosis is an emerging and neglected disease in flood affected zone of Pakistan, and the disease needs to be explored comprehensively in other parts of the country to sort out solid strategies for its control and eradication. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Shift work, cancer and "white-box" epidemiology: Association and causation.

PubMed

Erren, Thomas C

2010-11-30

This commentary intends to instigate discussions about upcoming epidemiologic research, and its interpretation, into putative links between shift work, involving circadian disruption or chronodisruption [CD], and the development of internal cancers.In 2007, the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) convened an expert group to examine the carcinogenicity of shift work, inter alia characterized by light exposures at unusual times. After a critical review of published data, the following was stated: "There is sufficient evidence in experimental animals for the carcinogenicity of light during the daily dark period (biological night)". However, in view of limited epidemiological evidence, it was overall concluded: "Shiftwork that involves circadian disruption is probably carcinogenic to humans (Group 2A)".Remarkably, the scenario around shift work, CD and internal cancers provides a unique case for "white-box" epidemiology: Research at many levels - from sub-cellular biochemistry, to whole cells, to organs, to organisms, including animals and humans - has suggested a series of quite precise and partly related causal mechanisms. This is in stark contrast to instances of "black box" or "stabs in the dark" epidemiology where causal mechanisms are neither known nor hypothesized or only poorly defined. The overriding theme that an adequate chronobiological organization of physiology can be critical for the protection against cancer builds the cornerstone of biological plausibility in this case.We can now benefit from biological plausibility in two ways: First, epidemiology should use biologically plausible insights into putative chains of causation between shift work and cancer to design future investigations. Second, when significant new data were to become available in coming years, IARC will re-evaluate cancer hazards associated with shift work. Biological plausibility may then be a key viewpoint to consider and, ultimately, to decide whether (or not) to pass

Strengthening the reliability and credibility of observational epidemiology studies by creating an Observational Studies Register.

PubMed

Swaen, Gerard M H; Carmichael, Neil; Doe, John

2011-05-01

To evaluate the need for the creation of a system in which observational epidemiology studies are registered; an Observational Studies Register (OSR). The current scientific process for observational epidemiology studies is described. Next, a parallel is made with the clinical trials area, where the creation of clinical trial registers has greatly restored and improved their credibility and reliability. Next, the advantages and disadvantages of an OSR are compared. The advantages of an OSR outweigh its disadvantages. The creation of an OSR, similar to the existing Clinical Trials Registers, will improve the assessment of publication bias and will provide an opportunity to compare the original study protocol with the results reported in the publication. Reliability, credibility, and transparency of observational epidemiology studies are strengthened by the creation of an OSR. We propose a structured, collaborative, and coordinated approach for observational epidemiology studies that can provide solutions for existing weaknesses and will strengthen credibility and reliability, similar to the approach currently used in clinical trials, where Clinical Trials Registers have played a key role in strengthening their scientific value. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Supersize me: how whole-genome sequencing and big data are transforming epidemiology.

PubMed

Kao, Rowland R; Haydon, Daniel T; Lycett, Samantha J; Murcia, Pablo R

2014-05-01

In epidemiology, the identification of 'who infected whom' allows us to quantify key characteristics such as incubation periods, heterogeneity in transmission rates, duration of infectiousness, and the existence of high-risk groups. Although invaluable, the existence of many plausible infection pathways makes this difficult, and epidemiological contact tracing either uncertain, logistically prohibitive, or both. The recent advent of next-generation sequencing technology allows the identification of traceable differences in the pathogen genome that are transforming our ability to understand high-resolution disease transmission, sometimes even down to the host-to-host scale. We review recent examples of the use of pathogen whole-genome sequencing for the purpose of forensic tracing of transmission pathways, focusing on the particular problems where evolutionary dynamics must be supplemented by epidemiological information on the most likely timing of events as well as possible transmission pathways. We also discuss potential pitfalls in the over-interpretation of these data, and highlight the manner in which a confluence of this technology with sophisticated mathematical and statistical approaches has the potential to produce a paradigm shift in our understanding of infectious disease transmission and control. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A critical look at descriptive epidemiology of sexual dysfunction in Asia compared to the rest of the world - a call for evidence-based data

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Recently evidence-based medicine has been applied to comparative epidemiological papers regarding sexual dysfunction that have appeared in the literature. This review is intended to focus the readers on a validated and standardized methodological evidence-based process for preparing such articles. It reviews four key articles that have been published in the English language that have obtained a high evidence-based score for reliability that have included descriptive epidemiology of sexual dysfunctions in men and women in Asia compared to the rest of the world. These four papers are analyzed in detail in order to provide stress of what constitutes evidence-based studies in descriptive epidemiology for sexual function. As can be seen there has not yet been a perfect article that compares the prevalence of sexual function in Asia compared to the rest of the world since there are key methodological problems in the collection of the data. In addition, there is a paucity of incidence studies for sexual dysfunction in Asian populations. The readers are encouraged to use this data in preparation of future descriptive epidemiological studies that involve Asian countries. PMID:26816724

Psychiatric epidemiology in India.

PubMed

Math, Suresh Bada; Chandrashekar, C R; Bhugra, Dinesh

2007-09-01

Epidemiological studies report prevalence rates for psychiatric disorders from 9.5 to 370/1000 populations in India. This review critically evaluates the prevalence rate of mental disorders as reported in Indian epidemiological studies. Extensive search of PubMed, NeuroMed and MEDLARS using search terms "psychiatry" and "epidemiology" was done. Manual search of literature was also done. Retrieved articles were systematically selected using inclusion and exclusion criteria. Only sixteen prevalence studies fulfilled the study criteria. Most of the epidemiological studies done in India neglected anxiety disorders, substance dependence disorders, co-morbidity and dual diagnosis. The use of poor sensitive screening instruments, single informant and systematic underreporting has added to the discrepancy in the prevalence rate. The prevalence of mental disorders reported in epidemiological surveys can be considered lower estimates rather than accurate reflections of the true prevalence in the population. Researchers have focused on broad non-specific, non-modifiable risk factors, such as age, gender and social class. Future research focused on the general population, longitudinal (prospective), multi-centre, co-morbid studies, assessment of disability, functioning, family burden and quality of life studies involving a clinical service providing approach, is required.

Methodological and Clinical Aspects of the Molecular Epidemiology of Mycobacterium tuberculosis and Other Mycobacteria

PubMed Central

Minias, Alina; van Ingen, Jakko; Rastogi, Nalin; Brzostek, Anna; Żaczek, Anna; Dziadek, Jarosław

2016-01-01

SUMMARY Molecular typing has revolutionized epidemiological studies of infectious diseases, including those of a mycobacterial etiology. With the advent of fingerprinting techniques, many traditional concepts regarding transmission, infectivity, or pathogenicity of mycobacterial bacilli have been revisited, and their conventional interpretations have been challenged. Since the mid-1990s, when the first typing methods were introduced, a plethora of other modalities have been proposed. So-called molecular epidemiology has become an essential subdiscipline of modern mycobacteriology. It serves as a resource for understanding the key issues in the epidemiology of tuberculosis and other mycobacterial diseases. Among these issues are disclosing sources of infection, quantifying recent transmission, identifying transmission links, discerning reinfection from relapse, tracking the geographic distribution and clonal expansion of specific strains, and exploring the genetic mechanisms underlying specific phenotypic traits, including virulence, organ tropism, transmissibility, or drug resistance. Since genotyping continues to unravel the biology of mycobacteria, it offers enormous promise in the fight against and prevention of the diseases caused by these pathogens. In this review, molecular typing methods for Mycobacterium tuberculosis and nontuberculous mycobacteria elaborated over the last 2 decades are summarized. The relevance of these methods to the epidemiological investigation, diagnosis, evolution, and control of mycobacterial diseases is discussed. PMID:26912567

Optimising and communicating options for the control of invasive plant disease when there is epidemiological uncertainty.

PubMed

Cunniffe, Nik J; Stutt, Richard O J H; DeSimone, R Erik; Gottwald, Tim R; Gilligan, Christopher A

2015-04-01

Although local eradication is routinely attempted following introduction of disease into a new region, failure is commonplace. Epidemiological principles governing the design of successful control are not well-understood. We analyse factors underlying the effectiveness of reactive eradication of localised outbreaks of invading plant disease, using citrus canker in Florida as a case study, although our results are largely generic, and apply to other plant pathogens (as we show via our second case study, citrus greening). We demonstrate how to optimise control via removal of hosts surrounding detected infection (i.e. localised culling) using a spatially-explicit, stochastic epidemiological model. We show how to define optimal culling strategies that take account of stochasticity in disease spread, and how the effectiveness of disease control depends on epidemiological parameters determining pathogen infectivity, symptom emergence and spread, the initial level of infection, and the logistics and implementation of detection and control. We also consider how optimal culling strategies are conditioned on the levels of risk acceptance/aversion of decision makers, and show how to extend the analyses to account for potential larger-scale impacts of a small-scale outbreak. Control of local outbreaks by culling can be very effective, particularly when started quickly, but the optimum strategy and its performance are strongly dependent on epidemiological parameters (particularly those controlling dispersal and the extent of any cryptic infection, i.e. infectious hosts prior to symptoms), the logistics of detection and control, and the level of local and global risk that is deemed to be acceptable. A version of the model we developed to illustrate our methodology and results to an audience of stakeholders, including policy makers, regulators and growers, is available online as an interactive, user-friendly interface at http://www.webidemics.com/. This version of our model

Response of key soil parameters during compost-assisted phytostabilization in extremely acidic tailings: effect of plant species.

PubMed

Solís-Dominguez, Fernando A; White, Scott A; Hutter, Travis Borrillo; Amistadi, Mary Kay; Root, Robert A; Chorover, Jon; Maier, Raina M

2012-01-17

Phytostabilization of mine tailings acts to mitigate both eolian dispersion and water erosion events which can disseminate barren tailings over large distances. This technology uses plants to establish a vegetative cover to permanently immobilize contaminants in the rooting zone, often requiring addition of an amendment to assist plant growth. Here we report the results of a greenhouse study that evaluated the ability of six native plant species to grow in extremely acidic (pH ∼ 2.5) metalliferous (As, Pb, Zn: 2000-3000 mg kg(-1)) mine tailings from Iron King Mine Humboldt Smelter Superfund site when amended with a range of compost concentrations. Results revealed that three of the six plant species tested (buffalo grass, mesquite, and catclaw acacia) are good candidates for phytostabilization at an optimum level of 15% compost (w/w) amendment showing good growth and minimal shoot accumulation of metal(loid)s. A fourth candidate, quailbush, also met all criteria except for exceeding the domestic animal toxicity limit for shoot accumulation of zinc. A key finding of this study was that the plant species that grew most successfully on these tailings significantly influenced key tailings parameters; direct correlations between plant biomass and both increased tailings pH and neutrophilic heterotrophic bacterial counts were observed. We also observed decreased iron oxidizer counts and decreased bioavailability of metal(loid)s mainly as a result of compost amendment. Taken together, these results suggest that the phytostabilization process reduced tailings toxicity as well as the potential for metal(loid) mobilization. This study provides practical information on plant and tailings characteristics that is critically needed for successful implementation of assisted phytostabilization on acidic, metalliferous mine tailings sites.

Response of Key Soil Parameters During Compost-Assisted Phytostabilization in Extremely Acidic Tailings: Effect of Plant Species

PubMed Central

Solís-Dominguez, Fernando A.; White, Scott A.; Hutter, Travis Borrillo; Amistadi, Mary Kay; Root, Robert A.; Chorover, Jon; Maier, Raina M.

2012-01-01

Phytostabilization of mine tailings acts to mitigate both eolian dispersion and water erosion events which can disseminate barren tailings over large distances. This technology uses plants to establish a vegetative cover to permanently immobilize contaminants in the rooting zone, often requiring addition of an amendment to assist plant growth. Here we report the results of a greenhouse study that evaluated the ability of six native plant species to grow in extremely acidic (pH ~ 2.5) metalliferous (As, Pb, Zn: 2000–3000 mg kg−1) mine tailings from Iron King Mine Humboldt Smelter Superfund site when amended with a range of compost concentrations. Results revealed that three of the six plant species tested (buffalo grass, mesquite, and catclaw acacia) are good candidates for phytostabilization at an optimum level of 15% compost (w/w) amendment showing good growth and minimal shoot accumulation of metal(loid)s. A fourth candidate, quailbush, also met all criteria except for exceeding the domestic animal toxicity limit for shoot accumulation of zinc. A key finding of this study was that the plant species that grew most successfully on these tailings significantly influenced key tailings parameters; direct correlations between plant biomass and both increased tailings pH and neutrophilic heterotrophic bacterial counts were observed. We also observed decreased iron oxidizer counts and decreased bioavailability of metal(loid)s mainly as a result of compost amendment. Taken together, these results suggest that the phytostabilization process reduced tailings toxicity as well as the potential for metal(loid) mobilization. This study provides practical information on plant and tailings characteristics that is critically needed for successful implementation of assisted phytostabilization on acidic, metalliferous mine tailings sites. PMID:22191663

Incorporating Measurement Error from Modeled Air Pollution Exposures into Epidemiological Analyses.

PubMed

Samoli, Evangelia; Butland, Barbara K

2017-12-01

Outdoor air pollution exposures used in epidemiological studies are commonly predicted from spatiotemporal models incorporating limited measurements, temporal factors, geographic information system variables, and/or satellite data. Measurement error in these exposure estimates leads to imprecise estimation of health effects and their standard errors. We reviewed methods for measurement error correction that have been applied in epidemiological studies that use model-derived air pollution data. We identified seven cohort studies and one panel study that have employed measurement error correction methods. These methods included regression calibration, risk set regression calibration, regression calibration with instrumental variables, the simulation extrapolation approach (SIMEX), and methods under the non-parametric or parameter bootstrap. Corrections resulted in small increases in the absolute magnitude of the health effect estimate and its standard error under most scenarios. Limited application of measurement error correction methods in air pollution studies may be attributed to the absence of exposure validation data and the methodological complexity of the proposed methods. Future epidemiological studies should consider in their design phase the requirements for the measurement error correction method to be later applied, while methodological advances are needed under the multi-pollutants setting.

The Global Epidemiologic Transition: Noncommunicable Diseases and Emerging Health Risk of Allergic Disease in Sub-Saharan Africa.

PubMed

Atiim, George A; Elliott, Susan J

2016-04-01

Globally, there has been a shift in the causes of illness and death from infectious diseases to noncommunicable diseases. This changing pattern has been attributed to the effects of an (ongoing) epidemiologic transition. Although researchers have applied epidemiologic transition theory to questions of global health, there have been relatively few studies exploring its relevance especially in the context of emerging allergic disorders in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). In this article, we address the growing burden of noncommunicable diseases in sub-Saharan Africa through the lens of epidemiologic transition theory. After a brief review of the literature on the evolution of the epidemiologic transition with a particular emphasis on sub-Saharan Africa, we discuss existing frameworks designed to help inform our understanding of changing health trends in the developing world. We subsequently propose a framework that privileges "place" as a key construct informing our understanding. In so doing, we use the example of allergic disease, one of the fastest growing chronic conditions in most parts of the world. © 2015 Society for Public Health Education.

Data linkage between existing healthcare databases to support hospital epidemiology.

PubMed

García Álvarez, L; Aylin, P; Tian, J; King, C; Catchpole, M; Hassall, S; Whittaker-Axon, K; Holmes, A

2011-11-01

Enhancing the use of existing datasets within acute hospitals will greatly facilitate hospital epidemiology, surveillance, the monitoring of a variety of processes, outcomes and risk factors, and the provision of alert systems. Multiple overlapping data systems exist within National Health Service (NHS) hospitals in the UK, and many duplicate data recordings take place because of the lack of linkage and interfaces. This results in hospital-collected data not being used efficiently. The objective was to create an inventory of all existing systems, including administrative, management, human resources, microbiology, patient care and other platforms, to describe the data architecture that could contribute valuable information for a hospital epidemiology unit. These datasets were investigated as to how they could be used to generate surveillance data, key performance indicators and risk information that could be shared at board, clinical programme group, specialty and ward level. An example of an output of this integrated data platform and its application in influenza resilience planning and responsiveness is described. The development of metrics for staff absence and staffing levels may also be used as key indicators for risk-monitoring for infection prevention. This work demonstrates the value of such a data inventory and linkage and the importance of more sophisticated uses of existing NHS data, and innovative collaborative approaches to support clinical care, quality improvement, surveillance, emergency planning and research. Copyright © 2011 The Healthcare Infection Society. All rights reserved.

Economic epidemiology of avian influenza on smallholder poultry farms☆

PubMed Central

Boni, Maciej F.; Galvani, Alison P.; Wickelgren, Abraham L.; Malani, Anup

2013-01-01

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is often controlled through culling of poultry. Compensating farmers for culled chickens or ducks facilitates effective culling and control of HPAI. However, ensuing price shifts can create incentives that alter the disease dynamics of HPAI. Farmers control certain aspects of the dynamics by setting a farm size, implementing infection control measures, and determining the age at which poultry are sent to market. Their decisions can be influenced by the market price of poultry which can, in turn, be set by policy makers during an HPAI outbreak. Here, we integrate these economic considerations into an epidemiological model in which epidemiological parameters are determined by an outside agent (the farmer) to maximize profit from poultry sales. Our model exhibits a diversity of behaviors which are sensitive to (i) the ability to identify infected poultry, (ii) the average price of infected poultry, (iii) the basic reproductive number of avian influenza, (iv) the effect of culling on the market price of poultry, (v) the effect of market price on farm size, and (vi) the effect of poultry density on disease transmission. We find that under certain market and epidemiological conditions, culling can increase farm size and the total number of HPAI infections. Our model helps to inform the optimization of public health outcomes that best weigh the balance between public health risk and beneficial economic outcomes for farmers. PMID:24161559

Foodborne outbreak simulation to teach field epidemiology: the Moroccan Field Epidemiology Training Program.

PubMed

Jroundi, Imane; Belarbi, Abdellatif

2016-11-01

Morocco in 2010 launched a new field epidemiology training program to enhance the skills of health professionals in charge of epidemiological surveillance and to investigate outbreaks; including foodborne diseases that represent a very substantial burden of disease. To apply an active learning method to teach outbreak investigation within a controled environment for field epidemiology trainees program at the Moroccan National school of public Health. A scenario describing digestive symptoms evoking a restaurant-associated foodborne outbreak that would affect the school staff was designed for the residents to investigate, to assess their organizational capacity and application of all stages of epidemiological investigation. Nine Residents applied study design, database management and statistical analysis to investigate the foodborne outbreak, to estimate attack rates, classify cases and controls, to identify the contaminated foods and pathogens and to issue preventive recommendations for the control and the prevention of further transmission. The overall resident's satisfaction of the learning method was 67%. A simulation of an outbreak investigation within an academic setting is an active learning method to be used in the curriculum for introducing the residents on field epidemiology program to the principles and practices of outbreak investigation before their implication in a real situation.

Genomic Epidemiology of Tuberculosis.

PubMed

Comas, Iñaki

2017-01-01

The application of next generation sequencing technologies has opened the door to a new molecular epidemiology of tuberculosis, in which we can now look at transmission at a resolution not possible before. At the same time, new technical and analytical challenges have appeared, and we are still exploring the wider potential of this new technology. Whole genome sequencing in tuberculosis still requires bacterial cultures. Thus, although whole genome sequencing has revolutionized the interpretation of transmission patterns, it is not yet ready to be applied at the point-of-care. In this chapter, I will review the promises and challenges of genomic epidemiology, as well as some of the new questions that have arisen from the use of this new technology. In addition, I will examine the role of molecular epidemiology within the general frame of global tuberculosis control and how genomic epidemiology can contribute towards the elimination of the disease.

Device-independent secret-key-rate analysis for quantum repeaters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holz, Timo; Kampermann, Hermann; Bruß, Dagmar

2018-01-01

The device-independent approach to quantum key distribution (QKD) aims to establish a secret key between two or more parties with untrusted devices, potentially under full control of a quantum adversary. The performance of a QKD protocol can be quantified by the secret key rate, which can be lower bounded via the violation of an appropriate Bell inequality in a setup with untrusted devices. We study secret key rates in the device-independent scenario for different quantum repeater setups and compare them to their device-dependent analogon. The quantum repeater setups under consideration are the original protocol by Briegel et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 81, 5932 (1998), 10.1103/PhysRevLett.81.5932] and the hybrid quantum repeater protocol by van Loock et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 96, 240501 (2006), 10.1103/PhysRevLett.96.240501]. For a given repeater scheme and a given QKD protocol, the secret key rate depends on a variety of parameters, such as the gate quality or the detector efficiency. We systematically analyze the impact of these parameters and suggest optimized strategies.

An investigation of the key parameters for predicting PV soiling losses

DOE PAGES

Micheli, Leonardo; Muller, Matthew

2017-01-25

One hundred and two environmental and meteorological parameters have been investigated and compared with the performance of 20 soiling stations installed in the USA, in order to determine their ability to predict the soiling losses occurring on PV systems. The results of this investigation showed that the annual average of the daily mean particulate matter values recorded by monitoring stations deployed near the PV systems are the best soiling predictors, with coefficients of determination ( R 2) as high as 0.82. The precipitation pattern was also found to be relevant: among the different meteorological parameters, the average length of drymore » periods had the best correlation with the soiling ratio. Lastly, a preliminary investigation of two-variable regressions was attempted and resulted in an adjusted R 2 of 0.90 when a combination of PM 2.5 and a binary classification for the average length of the dry period was introduced.« less

Evolution and social epidemiology.

PubMed

Nishi, Akihiro

2015-11-01

Evolutionary biology, which aims to explain the dynamic process of shaping the diversity of life, has not yet significantly affected thinking in social epidemiology. Current challenges in social epidemiology include understanding how social exposures can affect our biology, explaining the dynamics of society and health, and designing better interventions that are mindful of the impact of exposures during critical periods. I review how evolutionary concepts and tools, such as fitness gradient in cultural evolution, evolutionary game theory, and contemporary evolution in cancer, can provide helpful insights regarding social epidemiology. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Measurement of Key Pool BOiling Parameters in nanofluids for Nuclerar Applications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bang, In C; Buongiorno, Jdacopo; Hu, Lin-wen

Nanofluids, colloidal dispersions of nanoparticles in a base fluid such as water, can afford very significant Critical Heat Flux (CHF) enhancement. Such engineered fluids potentially could be employed in reactors as advanced coolants in safety systems with significant safety and economic advantages. However, a satisfactory explanation of the CHF enhancement mechanism in nanofluids is lacking. To close this gap, we have identified the important boiling parameters to be measured. These are the properties (e.g., density, viscosity, thermal conductivity, specific heat, vaporization enthalpy, surface tension), hydrodynamic parameters (i.e., bubble size, bubble velocity, departure frequency, hot/dry spot dynamics) and surface conditions (i.e.,more » contact angle, nucleation site density). We have also deployed a pool boiling facility in which many such parameters can be measured. The facility is equipped with a thin indium-tin-oxide heater deposited over a sapphire substrate. An infra-red high-speed camera and an optical probe are used to measure the temperature distribution on the heater and the hydrodynamics above the heater, respectively. The first data generated with this facility already provide some clue on the CHF enhancement mechanism in nanofluids. Specifically, the progression to burnout in a pure fluid (ethanol in this case) is characterized by a smoothly-shaped and steadily-expanding hot spot. By contrast, in the ethanol-based nanofluid the hot spot pulsates and the progression to burnout lasts longer, although the nanofluid CHF is higher than the pure fluid CHF. The presence of a nanoparticle deposition layer on the heater surface seems to enhance wettability and aid hot spot dissipation, thus delaying burnout.« less

The Association between Parameters of Socioeconomic Status and Hypertension in Korea: the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study.

PubMed

Park, Chan Soon; Ha, Kyoung Hwa; Kim, Hyeon Chang; Park, Sungha; Ihm, Sang Hyun; Lee, Hae Young

2016-12-01

We investigated the association between socioeconomic status and hypertension in Korea, a country that has experienced a dynamic socioeconomic transition. We analyzed participants of a prospective cohort study-the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study-enrolled between 2001 and 2003. We recruited 7,089 subjects who underwent a 4-year follow up till 2007. Education and income levels, which are important parameters for socioeconomic status, were stratified into 4 groups. Education level was defined as short (≤ 6 years), mid-short (7-9 years), mid-long (10-12 years), and long (≥ 12 years). Monthly income level was stratified as low (< 500,000 KRW), mid-low (500,000-1,499,999 KRW), mid-high (1,500,000-2,999,999 KRW) or high (≥ 3,000,000 KRW). At baseline, 2,805 subjects (39.5%) were diagnosed with hypertension. Education and income levels were inversely associated with the prevalence and incidence of hypertension (P < 0.001). In multivariate analysis, a shorter duration of education was significantly associated with a higher prevalence of hypertension (P < 0.001), but income level was not (P = 0.305). During the follow-up, 605 subjects (14.2%) were newly diagnosed with hypertension. In multivariate adjusted analysis, the hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) for incident hypertension across the longer education groups were 0.749 (0.544-1.032), 0.639 (0.462-0.884), and 0.583 (0.387-0.879), compared with the shortest education group. There was no significant association between incident hypertension and income across higher income groups: 0.988 (0.714-1.366), 0.780 (0.542-1.121), and 0.693 (0.454-1.056), compared with the lowest income group. In conclusion, education and income levels are associated with the prevalence and incidence of hypertension, but only education is an independent prognostic factor in Korea.

Genomic Epidemiology of a Dengue Virus Epidemic in Urban Singapore▿ †

PubMed Central

Schreiber, Mark J.; Holmes, Edward C.; Ong, Swee Hoe; Soh, Harold S. H.; Liu, Wei; Tanner, Lukas; Aw, Pauline P. K.; Tan, Hwee Cheng; Ng, Lee Ching; Leo, Yee Sin; Low, Jenny G. H.; Ong, Adrian; Ooi, Eng Eong; Vasudevan, Subhash G.; Hibberd, Martin L.

2009-01-01

Dengue is one of the most important emerging diseases of humans, with no preventative vaccines or antiviral cures available at present. Although one-third of the world's population live at risk of infection, little is known about the pattern and dynamics of dengue virus (DENV) within outbreak situations. By exploiting genomic data from an intensively studied major outbreak, we are able to describe the molecular epidemiology of DENV at a uniquely fine-scaled temporal and spatial resolution. Two DENV serotypes (DENV-1 and DENV-3), and multiple component genotypes, spread concurrently and with similar epidemiological and evolutionary profiles during the initial outbreak phase of a major dengue epidemic that took place in Singapore during 2005. Although DENV-1 and DENV-3 differed in viremia and clinical outcome, there was no evidence for adaptive evolution before, during, or after the outbreak, indicating that ecological or immunological rather than virological factors were the key determinants of epidemic dynamics. PMID:19211734

Concept design theory and model for multi-use space facilities: Analysis of key system design parameters through variance of mission requirements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reynerson, Charles Martin

This research has been performed to create concept design and economic feasibility data for space business parks. A space business park is a commercially run multi-use space station facility designed for use by a wide variety of customers. Both space hardware and crew are considered as revenue producing payloads. Examples of commercial markets may include biological and materials research, processing, and production, space tourism habitats, and satellite maintenance and resupply depots. This research develops a design methodology and an analytical tool to create feasible preliminary design information for space business parks. The design tool is validated against a number of real facility designs. Appropriate model variables are adjusted to ensure that statistical approximations are valid for subsequent analyses. The tool is used to analyze the effect of various payload requirements on the size, weight and power of the facility. The approach for the analytical tool was to input potential payloads as simple requirements, such as volume, weight, power, crew size, and endurance. In creating the theory, basic principles are used and combined with parametric estimation of data when necessary. Key system parameters are identified for overall system design. Typical ranges for these key parameters are identified based on real human spaceflight systems. To connect the economics to design, a life-cycle cost model is created based upon facility mass. This rough cost model estimates potential return on investments, initial investment requirements and number of years to return on the initial investment. Example cases are analyzed for both performance and cost driven requirements for space hotels, microgravity processing facilities, and multi-use facilities. In combining both engineering and economic models, a design-to-cost methodology is created for more accurately estimating the commercial viability for multiple space business park markets.

Chlorine dioxide water disinfection: a prospective epidemiology study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Michael, G.E.; Miday, R.K.; Bercz, J.P.

An epidemiologic study of 198 persons exposed for 3 months to drinking water disinfected with chlorine dioxide was conducted in a rural village. A control population of 118 nonexposed persons was also studied. Pre-exposure hematologic and serum chemical parameters were compared with test results after 115 days of exposure. Chlorite ion levels in the water averaged approximately 5 ppM during the study period. Statistical analysis (ANOVA) of the data failed to identify any significant exposure-related effects. This study suggests that future evaluations of chlorine dioxide disinfection should be directed toward populations with potentially increased sensitivity to hemolytic agents.

Assessing exposure in epidemiologic studies to disinfection by-products in drinking water: report from an international workshop.

PubMed Central

Arbuckle, Tye E; Hrudey, Steve E; Krasner, Stuart W; Nuckols, Jay R; Richardson, Susan D; Singer, Philip; Mendola, Pauline; Dodds, Linda; Weisel, Clifford; Ashley, David L; Froese, Kenneth L; Pegram, Rex A; Schultz, Irvin R; Reif, John; Bachand, Annette M; Benoit, Frank M; Lynberg, Michele; Poole, Charles; Waller, Kirsten

2002-01-01

The inability to accurately assess exposure has been one of the major shortcomings of epidemiologic studies of disinfection by-products (DBPs) in drinking water. A number of contributing factors include a) limited information on the identity, occurrence, toxicity, and pharmacokinetics of the many DBPs that can be formed from chlorine, chloramine, ozone, and chlorine dioxide disinfection; b) the complex chemical interrelationships between DBPs and other parameters within a municipal water distribution system; and c) difficulties obtaining accurate and reliable information on personal activity and water consumption patterns. In May 2000, an international workshop was held to bring together various disciplines to develop better approaches for measuring DBP exposure for epidemiologic studies. The workshop reached consensus about the clear need to involve relevant disciplines (e.g., chemists, engineers, toxicologists, biostatisticians and epidemiologists) as partners in developing epidemiologic studies of DBPs in drinking water. The workshop concluded that greater collaboration of epidemiologists with water utilities and regulators should be encouraged in order to make regulatory monitoring data more useful for epidemiologic studies. Similarly, exposure classification categories in epidemiologic studies should be chosen to make results useful for regulatory or policy decision making. PMID:11834463

Discrete Event Simulation Modeling and Analysis of Key Leader Engagements

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-06-01

to offer. GreenPlayer agents require four parameters, pC, pKLK, pTK, and pRK , which give probabilities for being corrupt, having key leader...HandleMessageRequest component. The same parameter constraints apply to these four parameters. The parameter pRK is the same parameter from the CreatePlayers component...whether the local Green player has resource critical knowledge by using the parameter pRK . It schedules an EndResourceKnowledgeRequest event, passing

Continuous Variable Quantum Key Distribution Using Polarized Coherent States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vidiella-Barranco, A.; Borelli, L. F. M.

We discuss a continuous variables method of quantum key distribution employing strongly polarized coherent states of light. The key encoding is performed using the variables known as Stokes parameters, rather than the field quadratures. Their quantum counterpart, the Stokes operators Ŝi (i=1,2,3), constitute a set of non-commuting operators, being the precision of simultaneous measurements of a pair of them limited by an uncertainty-like relation. Alice transmits a conveniently modulated two-mode coherent state, and Bob randomly measures one of the Stokes parameters of the incoming beam. After performing reconciliation and privacy amplification procedures, it is possible to distill a secret common key. We also consider a non-ideal situation, in which coherent states with thermal noise, instead of pure coherent states, are used for encoding.

Actual data on epidemiological evolution and prevention endeavours regarding traumatic brain injury

PubMed Central

Popescu, C; Anghelescu, A; Daia, C; Onose, G

2015-01-01

Background: Knowledge of the epidemiology of traumatic brain injury (TBI) is required both to prevent this disorder and to develop effective care and rehabilitation approaches for patients. Objective: The aim of this article is to find solutions to decrease the incidence of TBI and offer recommendations for their prevention. Material and methods: We analyzed epidemiological studies on TBI by performing a systematic review of literature, using information reported by different centers, collecting data on demographics, showing characteristics of TBI including incidence, identification of risk groups on differences in age, gender, geographical variation, severity and mortality. Results: Studies suggest that the incidence of TBI is between 18 and 250 per 100,000 persons per year. Men and people living in social and economical deprived areas, usually young adults and the elderly are high-risk groups for TBI. Discussion: Prevention remains the “key point” in medicine and especially for TBI, saving the patient from unnecessary often-harsh sufferance. Conclusions: Most public epidemiological data showed that TBI is a major cause of mortality and disability. The effort to understand TBI and the available strategies to treat this lesion, in order to improve clinical outcomes after TBI, may be based on an increase in research on the epidemiology of TBI. A coordinated strategy to evaluate this public health problem in Romania would first of all rely on a related advanced monitoring system, to provide precise information about the epidemiology, clinical and paraclinical data, but concerning the social and economic connected consequences, too. Abbreviations: CNS = central nervous system, ED = emergency department, EU = European Union, FTE = Full Time Employees, GCS = Glasgow Coma Scale, TBI = traumatic brain injury, US = United States, WHO = World Health Organization. PMID:26351526

Perceptions of participation in an observational epidemiologic study of cancer among African Americans.

PubMed

Gooden, Kyna M; Carter-Edwards, Lori; Hoyo, Cathrine; Akbar, Jabar; Cleveland, Rebecca J; Oates, Veronica; Jackson, Ethel; Furberg, Helena; Gammon, Marilie D

2005-01-01

Recruitment and retention of African Americans in cancer research studies has become increasingly important. However, little is known about factors bearing on recruitment and retention in etiologic observational studies of cancer. We assessed perceptions and attitudes of African Americans towards participation in an observational epidemiologic study of cancer, and attitudes toward the data collection process. Five focus groups, each lasting approximately 2 hours, were conducted. Participants were comprised of men and women between 41-65 years of age. A total of 35 adults from three rural and two urban counties in North Carolina participated. Data were analyzed using NVivo software. Four key themes emerged on the perception of participation and retention in an epidemiologic study of cancer: (1) fear of cancer prognosis; (2) conflicts between mistrust and trust in researchers; (3) comprehension of prospective study purpose, structure, and participation strategies; and (4) the necessity for and obligation to provide feedback. Results indicate that African Americans would be willing to participate in epidemiologic studies to identify etiologic risk factors for cancer. However, culturally appropriate efforts to thoroughly inform them of study process and progress are deemed essential for successful recruitment and retention.

Proteomics in the study of the molecular taxonomy and epidemiology of bacterial pathogens.

PubMed

Cash, Phillip

2009-06-01

The ability to discriminate bacterial isolates is important for a number of areas of research in Medical Microbiology, particularly in defining bacterial taxonomy and monitoring transmission in epidemiological investigations. Molecular techniques capable of typing bacteria at the level of the genome and proteome are now widely used for these investigations. This review considers two electrophoretic methods for typing bacteria on the basis of their proteomes, namely 1-D SDS-PAGE and 2-DE. The application of these two techniques for bacterial typing is described with reference to two publications that appeared in Electrophoresis [Costa, Electrophoresis 1990, 11, 382-391 and Cash et al., Electrophoresis 1997, 18, 1472-1482]. Even though these methods have been used for nearly 20 years to differentiate bacterial isolates they remain key technologies in proteome-based typing methods. The developments that have arisen from the two key papers are described in order to highlight the advantages and disadvantages in typing bacteria at the level of their proteomes. Some of the difficulties associated with electrophoretic typing methods can be overcome by using non-gel proteomic methods based on MS to provide improved sensitivity and specificity. The application of proteomic methods to investigate bacterial taxonomy, epidemiology and pathogenesis in general has significant potential in furthering our understanding of infectious diseases.

The epidemiology and surveillance response to pandemic influenza A (H1N1) among local health departments in the San Francisco Bay Area.

PubMed

Enanoria, Wayne T A; Crawley, Adam W; Tseng, Winston; Furnish, Jasmine; Balido, Jeannie; Aragón, Tomás J

2013-03-27

Public health surveillance and epidemiologic investigations are critical public health functions for identifying threats to the health of a community. Very little is known about how these functions are conducted at the local level. The purpose of the Epidemiology Networks in Action (EpiNet) Study was to describe the epidemiology and surveillance response to the 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) by city and county health departments in the San Francisco Bay Area in California. The study also documented lessons learned from the response in order to strengthen future public health preparedness and response planning efforts in the region. In order to characterize the epidemiology and surveillance response, we conducted key informant interviews with public health professionals from twelve local health departments in the San Francisco Bay Area. In order to contextualize aspects of organizational response and performance, we recruited two types of key informants: public health professionals who were involved with the epidemiology and surveillance response for each jurisdiction, as well as the health officer or his/her designee responsible for H1N1 response activities. Information about the organization, data sources for situation awareness, decision-making, and issues related to surge capacity, continuity of operations, and sustainability were collected during the key informant interviews. Content and interpretive analyses were conducted using ATLAS.ti software. The study found that disease investigations were important in the first months of the pandemic, often requiring additional staff support and sometimes forcing other public health activities to be put on hold. We also found that while the Incident Command System (ICS) was used by all participating agencies to manage the response, the manner in which it was implemented and utilized varied. Each local health department (LHD) in the study collected epidemiologic data from a variety of sources, but only case reports

The epidemiology and surveillance response to pandemic influenza A (H1N1) among local health departments in the San Francisco Bay Area

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Public health surveillance and epidemiologic investigations are critical public health functions for identifying threats to the health of a community. Very little is known about how these functions are conducted at the local level. The purpose of the Epidemiology Networks in Action (EpiNet) Study was to describe the epidemiology and surveillance response to the 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) by city and county health departments in the San Francisco Bay Area in California. The study also documented lessons learned from the response in order to strengthen future public health preparedness and response planning efforts in the region. Methods In order to characterize the epidemiology and surveillance response, we conducted key informant interviews with public health professionals from twelve local health departments in the San Francisco Bay Area. In order to contextualize aspects of organizational response and performance, we recruited two types of key informants: public health professionals who were involved with the epidemiology and surveillance response for each jurisdiction, as well as the health officer or his/her designee responsible for H1N1 response activities. Information about the organization, data sources for situation awareness, decision-making, and issues related to surge capacity, continuity of operations, and sustainability were collected during the key informant interviews. Content and interpretive analyses were conducted using ATLAS.ti software. Results The study found that disease investigations were important in the first months of the pandemic, often requiring additional staff support and sometimes forcing other public health activities to be put on hold. We also found that while the Incident Command System (ICS) was used by all participating agencies to manage the response, the manner in which it was implemented and utilized varied. Each local health department (LHD) in the study collected epidemiologic data from a variety of sources

Spotted Fever: Epidemiology and Vector-Rickettsia-Host Relationship in Rio de Janeiro State

PubMed Central

Montenegro, Diego C.; Bitencourth, Karla; de Oliveira, Stefan V.; Borsoi, Ana P.; Cardoso, Karen M.; Sousa, Maria S. B.; Giordano-Dias, Cristina; Amorim, Marinete; Serra-Freire, Nicolau M.; Gazêta, Gilberto S.; Brazil, Reginaldo P.

2017-01-01

The eco-epidemiological scenario of spotted fever (SF), a tick-borne disease that affects humans and other animals in several countries around the world, was analyzed in Rio de Janeiro (RJ) State, Brazil. During the last 34 years, 990 SF cases were reported in RJ (the Brazilian state with the highest population density), including 116 cases confirmed by serology (RIFI) or PCR, among 42.39% of the municipalities with reported cases of SF. The epidemiologic dynamics of SF in RJ State are very heterogeneous in time and space, with outbreaks, high mortality rates and periods of epidemiological silence (no SF cases reported). Furthermore, it exhibited a changing epidemiological profile from being rural to becoming an urban disease. This study identified arthropods infected with Rickettsia felis, R. bellii and R. rickettsii, and found that the abundance of ectoparasites was associated with specific hosts. The R. rickettsii-vector-host relationship was most evident in species-specific parasitism. This suggests that the association between dogs, cattle, horses, capybaras and their main ectoparasites, Rhipicephalus sanguineus and Ctenocephalides felis, Rhipicephalus microplus, Dermacentor nitens, and Amblyomma dubitatum, respectively, has a key role in the dynamics of R. rickettsii transmission in enzootic cycles and the maintenance of carrier ectoparasites, thus facilitating the existence of endemic areas with the ability to produce epidemic outbreaks of SF in RJ. This study found confirmed human infections for only the R. rickettsii carrier Amblyomma sculptum, which reinforces the importance of this species as a vector of the pathogen in Brazil. This study can be adapted to different eco-epidemiological scenarios of spotted fever throughout the Americas. PMID:28424664

Environmental Drivers of West Nile Fever Epidemiology in Europe and Western Asia—A Review

PubMed Central

Paz, Shlomit; Semenza, Jan C.

2013-01-01

Abiotic and biotic conditions are both important determinants of West Nile Fever (WNF) epidemiology. Ambient temperature plays an important role in the growth rates of vector populations, the interval between blood meals, viral replication rates and transmission of West Nile Virus (WNV). The contribution of precipitation is more complex and less well understood. In this paper we discuss impacts of climatic parameters (temperature, relative humidity, precipitation) and other environmental drivers (such as bird migration, land use) on WNV transmission in Europe. WNV recently became established in southeastern Europe, with a large outbreak in the summer of 2010 and recurrent outbreaks in 2011 and 2012. Abundant competent mosquito vectors, bridge vectors, infected (viremic) migrating and local (amplifying) birds are all important characteristics of WNV transmission. In addition, certain key climatic factors, such as increased ambient temperatures, and by extension climate change, may also favor WNF transmission, and they should be taken into account when evaluating the risk of disease spread in the coming years. Monitoring epidemic precursors of WNF, such as significant temperature deviations in high risk areas, could be used to trigger vector control programs and public education campaigns. PMID:23939389

Modeling the hepatitis A epidemiological transition in Brazil and Mexico.

PubMed

Van Effelterre, Thierry; Guignard, Adrienne; Marano, Cinzia; Rojas, Rosalba; Jacobsen, Kathryn H

2017-08-03

Many low- to middle-income countries have completed or are in the process of transitioning from high or intermediate to low endemicity for hepatitis A virus (HAV). Because the risk of severe hepatitis A disease increases with age at infection, decreased incidence that leaves older children and adults susceptible to HAV infection may actually increase the population-level burden of disease from HAV. Mathematical models can be helpful for projecting future epidemiological profiles for HAV. An age-specific deterministic, dynamic compartmental transmission model with stratification by setting (rural versus urban) was calibrated with country-specific data on demography, urbanization, and seroprevalence of anti-HAV antibodies. HAV transmission was modeled as a function of setting-specific access to safe water. The model was then used to project various HAV-related epidemiological outcomes in Brazil and in Mexico from 1950 to 2050. The projected epidemiological outcomes were qualitatively similar in the 2 countries. The age at the midpoint of population immunity (AMPI) increased considerably and the mean age of symptomatic HAV cases shifted from childhood to early adulthood. The projected overall incidence rate of HAV infections decreased by about two thirds as safe water access improved. However, the incidence rate of symptomatic HAV infections remained roughly the same over the projection period. The incidence rates of HAV infections (all and symptomatic alone) were projected to become similar in rural and urban settings in the next decades. This model featuring population age structure, urbanization and access to safe water as key contributors to the epidemiological transition for HAV was previously validated with data from Thailand and fits equally well with data from Latin American countries. Assuming no introduction of a vaccination program over the projection period, both Brazil and Mexico were projected to experience a continued decrease in HAV incidence rates

3-D Simulation of Earthquakes on the Cascadia Megathrust: Key Parameters and Constraints from Offshore Structure and Seismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wirth, E. A.; Frankel, A. D.; Vidale, J. E.; Stone, I.; Nasser, M.; Stephenson, W. J.

2017-12-01

The Cascadia subduction zone has a long history of M8 to M9 earthquakes, inferred from coastal subsidence, tsunami records, and submarine landslides. These megathrust earthquakes occur mostly offshore, and an improved characterization of the megathrust is critical for accurate seismic hazard assessment in the Pacific Northwest. We run numerical simulations of 50 magnitude 9 earthquake rupture scenarios on the Cascadia megathrust, using a 3-D velocity model based on geologic constraints and regional seismicity, as well as active and passive source seismic studies. We identify key parameters that control the intensity of ground shaking and resulting seismic hazard. Variations in the down-dip limit of rupture (e.g., extending rupture to the top of the non-volcanic tremor zone, compared to a completely offshore rupture) result in a 2-3x difference in peak ground acceleration (PGA) for the inland city of Seattle, Washington. Comparisons of our simulations to paleoseismic data suggest that rupture extending to the 1 cm/yr locking contour (i.e., mostly offshore) provides the best fit to estimates of coastal subsidence during previous Cascadia earthquakes, but further constraints on the down-dip limit from microseismicity, offshore geodetics, and paleoseismic evidence are needed. Similarly, our simulations demonstrate that coastal communities experience a four-fold increase in PGA depending upon their proximity to strong-motion-generating areas (i.e., high strength asperities) on the deeper portions of the megathrust. An improved understanding of the structure and rheology of the plate interface and accretionary wedge, and better detection of offshore seismicity, may allow us to forecast locations of these asperities during a future Cascadia earthquake. In addition to these parameters, the seismic velocity and attenuation structure offshore also strongly affects the resulting ground shaking. This work outlines the range of plausible ground motions from an M9 Cascadia

Assessment of key transport parameters in a karst system under different dynamic conditions based on tracer experiments: the Jeita karst system, Lebanon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doummar, Joanna; Margane, Armin; Geyer, Tobias; Sauter, Martin

2018-03-01

Artificial tracer experiments were conducted in the mature karst system of Jeita (Lebanon) under various flow conditions using surface and subsurface tracer injection points, to determine the variation of transport parameters (attenuation of peak concentration, velocity, transit times, dispersivity, and proportion of immobile and mobile regions) along fast and slow flow pathways. Tracer breakthrough curves (TBCs) observed at the karst spring were interpreted using a two-region nonequilibrium approach (2RNEM) to account for the skewness in the TBCs' long tailings. The conduit test results revealed a discharge threshold in the system dynamics, beyond which the transport parameters vary significantly. The polynomial relationship between transport velocity and discharge can be related to the variation of the conduit's cross-sectional area. Longitudinal dispersivity in the conduit system is not a constant value (α = 7-10 m) and decreases linearly with increasing flow rate because of dilution effects. Additionally, the proportion of immobile regions (arising from conduit irregularities) increases with decreasing water level in the conduit system. From tracer tests with injection at the surface, longitudinal dispersivity values are found to be large (8-27 m). The tailing observed in some TBCs is generated in the unsaturated zone before the tracer actually arrives at the major subsurface conduit draining the system. This work allows the estimation and prediction of the key transport parameters in karst aquifers. It shows that these parameters vary with time and flow dynamics, and they reflect the geometry of the flow pathway and the origin of infiltrating (potentially contaminated) recharge.

Causation in epidemiology

PubMed Central

Parascandola, M; Weed, D

2001-01-01

Causation is an essential concept in epidemiology, yet there is no single, clearly articulated definition for the discipline. From a systematic review of the literature, five categories can be delineated: production, necessary and sufficient, sufficient-component, counterfactual, and probabilistic. Strengths and weaknesses of these categories are examined in terms of proposed characteristics of a useful scientific definition of causation: it must be specific enough to distinguish causation from mere correlation, but not so narrow as to eliminate apparent causal phenomena from consideration. Two categories—production and counterfactual—are present in any definition of causation but are not themselves sufficient as definitions. The necessary and sufficient cause definition assumes that all causes are deterministic. The sufficient-component cause definition attempts to explain probabilistic phenomena via unknown component causes. Thus, on both of these views, heavy smoking can be cited as a cause of lung cancer only when the existence of unknown deterministic variables is assumed. The probabilistic definition, however, avoids these assumptions and appears to best fit the characteristics of a useful definition of causation. It is also concluded that the probabilistic definition is consistent with scientific and public health goals of epidemiology. In debates in the literature over these goals, proponents of epidemiology as pure science tend to favour a narrower deterministic notion of causation models while proponents of epidemiology as public health tend to favour a probabilistic view. The authors argue that a single definition of causation for the discipline should be and is consistent with both of these aims. It is concluded that a counterfactually-based probabilistic definition is more amenable to the quantitative tools of epidemiology, is consistent with both deterministic and probabilistic phenomena, and serves equally well for the acquisition and the

Epidemiological studies in incidence, prevalence, mortality, and comorbidity of the rheumatic diseases

PubMed Central

Gabriel, Sherine E; Michaud, Kaleb

2009-01-01

Epidemiology is the study of the distribution and determinants of disease in human populations. Over the past decade there has been considerable progress in our understanding of the fundamental descriptive epidemiology (levels of disease frequency: incidence and prevalence, comorbidity, mortality, trends over time, geographic distributions, and clinical characteristics) of the rheumatic diseases. This progress is reviewed for the following major rheumatic diseases: rheumatoid arthritis (RA), juvenile rheumatoid arthritis, psoriatic arthritis, osteoarthritis, systemic lupus erythematosus, giant cell arteritis, polymyalgia rheumatica, gout, Sjögren's syndrome, and ankylosing spondylitis. These findings demonstrate the dynamic nature of the incidence and prevalence of these conditions – a reflection of the impact of genetic and environmental factors. The past decade has also brought new insights regarding the comorbidity associated with rheumatic diseases. Strong evidence now shows that persons with RA are at a high risk for developing several comorbid disorders, that these conditions may have atypical features and thus may be difficult to diagnose, and that persons with RA experience poorer outcomes after comorbidity compared with the general population. Taken together, these findings underscore the complexity of the rheumatic diseases and highlight the key role of epidemiological research in understanding these intriguing conditions. PMID:19519924

Against anti-health epidemiology: corporate obstruction of public health via manipulation of epidemiology.

PubMed

Egilman, David; Howe, Samantha

2007-01-01

In response to several articles on corporate corruption of science that appeared earlier in this journal, a critic outlined an epistemological model based on an unsupported assertion that epidemiologic evidence is always required to support cause-effect relationships. This model, if adopted, would eliminate compensation to victims of toxic exposures and impede regulation of accepted hazards. Epidemiology is only one element in support of cause-effect determinations. The critic's proposal of an anti-health epidemiology was initially developed by corporations with the goal of providing defense in litigation, and is based not on science but on a corporate need to enhance profits at the expense of public health.

Constructing Ebola transmission chains from West Africa and estimating model parameters using internet sources.

PubMed

Pettey, W B P; Carter, M E; Toth, D J A; Samore, M H; Gundlapalli, A V

2017-07-01

During the recent Ebola crisis in West Africa, individual person-level details of disease onset, transmissions, and outcomes such as survival or death were reported in online news media. We set out to document disease transmission chains for Ebola, with the goal of generating a timely account that could be used for surveillance, mathematical modeling, and public health decision-making. By accessing public web pages only, such as locally produced newspapers and blogs, we created a transmission chain involving two Ebola clusters in West Africa that compared favorably with other published transmission chains, and derived parameters for a mathematical model of Ebola disease transmission that were not statistically different from those derived from published sources. We present a protocol for responsibly gleaning epidemiological facts, transmission model parameters, and useful details from affected communities using mostly indigenously produced sources. After comparing our transmission parameters to published parameters, we discuss additional benefits of our method, such as gaining practical information about the affected community, its infrastructure, politics, and culture. We also briefly compare our method to similar efforts that used mostly non-indigenous online sources to generate epidemiological information.

NASA Remote Sensing Data for Epidemiological Studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maynard, Nancy G.; Vicente, G. A.

2002-01-01

In response to the need for improved observations of environmental factors to better understand the links between human health and the environment, NASA has established a new program to significantly improve the utilization of NASA's diverse array of data, information, and observations of the Earth for health applications. This initiative, lead by Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) has the following goals: (1) To encourage interdisciplinary research on the relationships between environmental parameters (e.g., rainfall, vegetation) and health, (2) Develop practical early warning systems, (3) Create a unique system for the exchange of Earth science and health data, (4) Provide an investigator field support system for customers and partners, (5) Facilitate a system for observation, identification, and surveillance of parameters relevant to environment and health issues. The NASA Environment and Health Program is conducting several interdisciplinary projects to examine applications of remote sensing data and information to a variety of health issues, including studies on malaria, Rift Valley Fever, St. Louis Encephalitis, Dengue Fever, Ebola, African Dust and health, meningitis, asthma, and filariasis. In addition, the NASA program is creating a user-friendly data system to help provide the public health community with easy and timely access to space-based environmental data for epidemiological studies. This NASA data system is being designed to bring land, atmosphere, water and ocean satellite data/products to users not familiar with satellite data/products, but who are knowledgeable in the Geographic Information Systems (GIS) environment. This paper discusses the most recent results of the interdisciplinary environment-health research projects and provides an analysis of the usefulness of the satellite data to epidemiological studies. In addition, there will be a summary of presently-available NASA Earth science data and a description of how it may be obtained.

Clusters of poverty and disease emerge from feedbacks on an epidemiological network.

PubMed

Pluciński, Mateusz M; Ngonghala, Calistus N; Getz, Wayne M; Bonds, Matthew H

2013-03-06

The distribution of health conditions is characterized by extreme inequality. These disparities have been alternately attributed to disease ecology and the economics of poverty. Here, we provide a novel framework that integrates epidemiological and economic growth theory on an individual-based hierarchically structured network. Our model indicates that, under certain parameter regimes, feedbacks between disease ecology and economics create clusters of low income and high disease that can stably persist in populations that become otherwise predominantly rich and free of disease. Surprisingly, unlike traditional poverty trap models, these localized disease-driven poverty traps can arise despite homogeneity of parameters and evenly distributed initial economic conditions.

Engagement in the HIV Care Continuum among Key Populations in Tijuana, Mexico.

PubMed

Smith, Laramie R; Patterson, Thomas L; Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos; Ojeda, Victoria D; Burgos, Jose Luis; Rojas, Sarah A; Zúñiga, María Luisa; Strathdee, Steffanie A

2016-05-01

In Tijuana, Mexico, HIV is concentrated in sub-epidemics of key populations: persons who inject drugs (PWID), sex workers (SW), and men who have sex with men (MSM). To date, data on engagement in the HIV care continuum among these key populations, particularly in resource-constrained settings, are sparse. We pooled available epidemiological data from six studies (N = 3368) to examine HIV testing and treatment uptake in these key populations; finding an overall HIV prevalence of 5.7 %. Of the 191 identified HIV-positive persons, only 11.5 % knew their HIV-positive status and 3.7 % were on ART. Observed differences between these HIV-positive key populations suggest PWID (vs. non-PWID) were least likely to have previously tested or initiate HIV care. MSM (vs. non-MSM) were more likely to have previously tested but not more likely to know their HIV-positive status. Of persons aware of their HIV-positive status, SW (vs. non-SW) were more likely to initiate HIV care. Findings suggest engagement of key populations in HIV treatment is far below estimates observed for similarly resource-constrained generalized epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa. These data provide one of the first empirical-snapshots highlighting the extent of HIV treatment disparities in key populations.

Numerical approach for unstructured quantum key distribution

PubMed Central

Coles, Patrick J.; Metodiev, Eric M.; Lütkenhaus, Norbert

2016-01-01

Quantum key distribution (QKD) allows for communication with security guaranteed by quantum theory. The main theoretical problem in QKD is to calculate the secret key rate for a given protocol. Analytical formulas are known for protocols with symmetries, since symmetry simplifies the analysis. However, experimental imperfections break symmetries, hence the effect of imperfections on key rates is difficult to estimate. Furthermore, it is an interesting question whether (intentionally) asymmetric protocols could outperform symmetric ones. Here we develop a robust numerical approach for calculating the key rate for arbitrary discrete-variable QKD protocols. Ultimately this will allow researchers to study ‘unstructured' protocols, that is, those that lack symmetry. Our approach relies on transforming the key rate calculation to the dual optimization problem, which markedly reduces the number of parameters and hence the calculation time. We illustrate our method by investigating some unstructured protocols for which the key rate was previously unknown. PMID:27198739

The epidemiology and surveillance workforce among local health departments in California: mutual aid and surge capacity for routine and emergency infectious disease situations.

PubMed

Enanoria, Wayne T A; Crawley, Adam W; Hunter, Jennifer C; Balido, Jeannie; Aragon, Tomas J

2014-01-01

Public health surveillance and epidemiologic investigations are critical public health functions for identifying threats to the health of a community. We conducted a survey of local health departments (LHDs) in California to describe the workforce that supports public health surveillance and epidemiologic functions during routine and emergency infectious disease situations. The target population consisted of the 61 LHDs in California. The online survey instrument was designed to collect information about the workforce involved in key epidemiologic functions. We also examined how the public health workforce increases its epidemiologic capacity during infectious disease emergencies. Of 61 LHDs in California, 31 (51%) completed the survey. A wide range of job classifications contribute to epidemiologic functions routinely, and LHDs rely on both internal and external sources of epidemiologic surge capacity during infectious disease emergencies. This study found that while 17 (55%) LHDs reported having a mutual aid agreement with at least one other organization for emergency response, only nine (29%) LHDs have a mutual aid agreement specifically for epidemiology and surveillance functions. LHDs rely on a diverse workforce to conduct epidemiology and public health surveillance functions, emphasizing the need to identify and describe the types of staff positions that could benefit from public health surveillance and epidemiology training. While some organizations collaborate with external partners to support these functions during an emergency, many LHDs do not rely on mutual aid agreements for epidemiology and surveillance activities.

Space-time epidemiology and effect of meteorological parameters on influenza-like illness in Phitsanulok, a northern province in Thailand.

PubMed

Nimbalkar, Prakash Madhav; Tripathi, Nitin Kumar

2016-11-21

Influenza-like illness (ILI) is an acute respiratory disease that remains a public health concern for its ability to circulate globally affecting any age group and gender causing serious illness with mortality risk. Comprehensive assessment of the spatio-temporal dynamics of ILI is a prerequisite for effective risk assessment and application of control measures. Though meteorological parameters, such as rainfall, average relative humidity and temperature, influence ILI and represent crucial information for control of this disease, the relation between the disease and these variables is not clearly understood in tropical climates. The aim of this study was to analyse the epidemiology of ILI cases using integrated methods (space-time analysis, spatial autocorrelation and other correlation statistics). After 2009s H1N1 influenza pandemic, Phitsanulok Province in northern Thailand was strongly affected by ILI for many years. This study is based on ILI cases in villages in this province from 2005 to 2012. We used highly precise weekly incidence records covering eight years, which allowed accurate estimation of the ILI outbreak. Comprehensive methodology was developed to analyse the global and local patterns of the spread of the disease. Significant space-time clusters were detected over the study region during eight different periods. ILI cases showed seasonal clustered patterns with a peak in 2010 (P>0.05-9.999 iterations). Local indicators of spatial association identified hotspots for each year. Statistically, the weather pattern showed a clear influence on ILI cases and it strongly correlated with humidity at a lag of 1 month, while temperature had a weaker correlation.

Kernel-density estimation and approximate Bayesian computation for flexible epidemiological model fitting in Python.

PubMed

Irvine, Michael A; Hollingsworth, T Déirdre

2018-05-26

Fitting complex models to epidemiological data is a challenging problem: methodologies can be inaccessible to all but specialists, there may be challenges in adequately describing uncertainty in model fitting, the complex models may take a long time to run, and it can be difficult to fully capture the heterogeneity in the data. We develop an adaptive approximate Bayesian computation scheme to fit a variety of epidemiologically relevant data with minimal hyper-parameter tuning by using an adaptive tolerance scheme. We implement a novel kernel density estimation scheme to capture both dispersed and multi-dimensional data, and directly compare this technique to standard Bayesian approaches. We then apply the procedure to a complex individual-based simulation of lymphatic filariasis, a human parasitic disease. The procedure and examples are released alongside this article as an open access library, with examples to aid researchers to rapidly fit models to data. This demonstrates that an adaptive ABC scheme with a general summary and distance metric is capable of performing model fitting for a variety of epidemiological data. It also does not require significant theoretical background to use and can be made accessible to the diverse epidemiological research community. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Solar oxidation and removal of arsenic--Key parameters for continuous flow applications.

PubMed

Gill, L W; O'Farrell, C

2015-12-01

Solar oxidation to remove arsenic from water has previously been investigated as a batch process. This research has investigated the kinetic parameters for the design of a continuous flow solar reactor to remove arsenic from contaminated groundwater supplies. Continuous flow recirculated batch experiments were carried out under artificial UV light to investigate the effect of different parameters on arsenic removal efficiency. Inlet water arsenic concentrations of up to 1000 μg/L were reduced to below 10 μg/L requiring 12 mg/L iron after receiving 12 kJUV/L radiation. Citrate however was somewhat surprisingly found to promote a detrimental effect on the removal process in the continuous flow reactor studies which is contrary to results found in batch scale tests. The impact of other typical water groundwater quality parameters (phosphate and silica) on the process due to their competition with arsenic for photooxidation products revealed a much higher sensitivity to phosphate ions compared to silicate. Other results showed no benefit from the addition of TiO2 photocatalyst but enhanced arsenic removal at higher temperatures up to 40 °C. Overall, these results have indicated the kinetic envelope from which a continuous flow SORAS single pass system could be more confidently designed for a full-scale community groundwater application at a village level. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Influence of key processing parameters and seeding density effects of microencapsulated chondrocytes fabricated using electrohydrodynamic spraying.

PubMed

Gansau, Jennifer; Kelly, Lara; Buckley, Conor

2018-06-11

Cell delivery and leakage during injection remains a challenge for cell-based intervertebral disc regeneration strategies. Cellular microencapsulation may offer a promising approach to overcome these limitations by providing a protective niche during intradiscal injection. Electrohydrodynamic spraying (EHDS) is a versatile one-step approach for microencapsulation of cells using a high voltage electric field. The primary objective of this work was to characterise key processing parameters such as applied voltage (0, 5, 10 or 15kV), emitter needle gauge (21, 26 or 30G), alginate concentration (1, 2 or 3%) and flow rate (50, 100, 250 or 500 µl/min) to regulate the morphology of alginate microcapsules and subsequent cell viability when altering these parameters. The effect of initial cell seeding density (5, 10 and 20x10⁶ cells/ml) on subsequent matrix accumulation of microencapsulated articular chondrocytes was also evaluated. Results showed that increasing alginate concentration and thus viscosity increased overall microcapsule size but also affected the geometry towards ellipsoidal-shaped gels. Altering the electric field strength and needle diameter regulated microcapsule size towards a smaller diameter with increasing voltage and smaller needle diameter. Needle size did not appear to affect cell viability when operating with lower alginate concentrations (1% and 2%), although higher concentrations (3%) and thus higher viscosity hydrogels resulted in diminished viability with decreasing needle diameter. Increasing cell density resulted in decreased cell viability and a concomitant decrease in DNA content, perhaps due to competing nutrient demands as a result of more closely packed cells. However, higher cell densities resulted in increased levels of extracellular matrix accumulated. Overall, this work highlights the potential of EHDS as a controllable and versatile approach to fabricate microcapsules for injectable delivery which can be

Feminism meets the "new" epidemiologies: toward an appraisal of antifeminist biases in epidemiological research on women's health.

PubMed

Inhorn, M C; Whittle, K L

2001-09-01

This essay explores an alternative paradigm for epidemiology, one which is explicitly informed by a feminist perspective. We intend to expand upon recent critiques and debates within the emergent fields of "critical", "popular", and "alternative" epidemiology to examine how epidemiology's conceptual models--which are meant to contribute to the prevention of social inequalities in health, but may instead reinforce social hierarchies based on gender, race, and class--constrain our understanding of health and disease. Specifically, we examine persistent antifeminist biases in contemporary epidemiological research on women's health. Issues highlighted include: problem definition and knowledge production in women's health: biological essentialization of women as reproducers; and decontextualization and depoliticization of women's health risks. As part of this critique, we include suggestions for an emancipatory epidemiology that incorporates an alternative feminist framework.

Verification of Compartmental Epidemiological Models using Metamorphic Testing, Model Checking and Visual Analytics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ramanathan, Arvind; Steed, Chad A; Pullum, Laura L

Compartmental models in epidemiology are widely used as a means to model disease spread mechanisms and understand how one can best control the disease in case an outbreak of a widespread epidemic occurs. However, a significant challenge within the community is in the development of approaches that can be used to rigorously verify and validate these models. In this paper, we present an approach to rigorously examine and verify the behavioral properties of compartmen- tal epidemiological models under several common modeling scenarios including birth/death rates and multi-host/pathogen species. Using metamorphic testing, a novel visualization tool and model checking, we buildmore » a workflow that provides insights into the functionality of compartmental epidemiological models. Our initial results indicate that metamorphic testing can be used to verify the implementation of these models and provide insights into special conditions where these mathematical models may fail. The visualization front-end allows the end-user to scan through a variety of parameters commonly used in these models to elucidate the conditions under which an epidemic can occur. Further, specifying these models using a process algebra allows one to automatically construct behavioral properties that can be rigorously verified using model checking. Taken together, our approach allows for detecting implementation errors as well as handling conditions under which compartmental epidemiological models may fail to provide insights into disease spread dynamics.« less

Research Methods in Healthcare Epidemiology and Antimicrobial Stewardship-Observational Studies.

PubMed

Snyder, Graham M; Young, Heather; Varman, Meera; Milstone, Aaron M; Harris, Anthony D; Munoz-Price, Silvia

2016-10-01

Observational studies compare outcomes among subjects with and without an exposure of interest, without intervention from study investigators. Observational studies can be designed as a prospective or retrospective cohort study or as a case-control study. In healthcare epidemiology, these observational studies often take advantage of existing healthcare databases, making them more cost-effective than clinical trials and allowing analyses of rare outcomes. This paper addresses the importance of selecting a well-defined study population, highlights key considerations for study design, and offers potential solutions including biostatistical tools that are applicable to observational study designs. Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol 2016;1-6.

Current practice of epidemiology in Africa: highlights of the 3rd conference of the African epidemiological association and 1st conference of the Cameroon society of epidemiology, Yaoundé, Cameroon, 2014

PubMed Central

Nkwescheu, Armand Seraphin; Fokam, Joseph; Tchendjou, Patrice; Nji, Akindeh; Ngouakam, Hermann; Andre, Bita Fouda; Joelle, Sobngwi; Uzochukwu, Benjamin; Akinroye, Kingsley; Mbacham, Wilfred; Colizzi, Vittorio; Leke, Rose; Victora, Cesar

2015-01-01

As the study of disease occurrence and health indicators in human populations, Epidemiology is a dynamic field that evolves with time and geographical context. In order to update African health workers on current epidemiological practices and to draw awareness of early career epidemiologists on concepts and opportunities in the field, the 3rd African Epidemiology Association and the 1st Cameroon Society of Epidemiology Conference was organized in June 2-6, 2014 at the Yaoundé Mont Febe Hotel, in Cameroon. Under the theme«Practice of Epidemiology in Africa: Stakes, Challenges and Perspectives», the conference attracted close to five hundred guest and participants from all continents. The two main programs were the pre-conference course for capacity building of African Early Career epidemiologists, and the conference itself, providing a forum for scientific exchanges on recent epidemiological concepts, encouraging the use of epidemiological methods in studying large disease burden and neglected tropical diseases; and highlighting existing opportunities. PMID:26523191

Current practice of epidemiology in Africa: highlights of the 3rd conference of the African epidemiological association and 1st conference of the Cameroon society of epidemiology, Yaoundé, Cameroon, 2014.

PubMed

Nkwescheu, Armand Seraphin; Fokam, Joseph; Tchendjou, Patrice; Nji, Akindeh; Ngouakam, Hermann; Andre, Bita Fouda; Joelle, Sobngwi; Uzochukwu, Benjamin; Akinroye, Kingsley; Mbacham, Wilfred; Colizzi, Vittorio; Leke, Rose; Victora, Cesar

2015-01-01

As the study of disease occurrence and health indicators in human populations, Epidemiology is a dynamic field that evolves with time and geographical context. In order to update African health workers on current epidemiological practices and to draw awareness of early career epidemiologists on concepts and opportunities in the field, the 3(rd) African Epidemiology Association and the 1st Cameroon Society of Epidemiology Conference was organized in June 2-6, 2014 at the Yaoundé Mont Febe Hotel, in Cameroon. Under the theme«Practice of Epidemiology in Africa: Stakes, Challenges and Perspectives», the conference attracted close to five hundred guest and participants from all continents. The two main programs were the pre-conference course for capacity building of African Early Career epidemiologists, and the conference itself, providing a forum for scientific exchanges on recent epidemiological concepts, encouraging the use of epidemiological methods in studying large disease burden and neglected tropical diseases; and highlighting existing opportunities.

Epidemiology of Lung Cancer

PubMed Central

Brock, Malcolm V.; Ford, Jean G.; Samet, Jonathan M.; Spivack, Simon D.

2013-01-01

Background: Ever since a lung cancer epidemic emerged in the mid-1900s, the epidemiology of lung cancer has been intensively investigated to characterize its causes and patterns of occurrence. This report summarizes the key findings of this research. Methods: A detailed literature search provided the basis for a narrative review, identifying and summarizing key reports on population patterns and factors that affect lung cancer risk. Results: Established environmental risk factors for lung cancer include smoking cigarettes and other tobacco products and exposure to secondhand tobacco smoke, occupational lung carcinogens, radiation, and indoor and outdoor air pollution. Cigarette smoking is the predominant cause of lung cancer and the leading worldwide cause of cancer death. Smoking prevalence in developing nations has increased, starting new lung cancer epidemics in these nations. A positive family history and acquired lung disease are examples of host factors that are clinically useful risk indicators. Risk prediction models based on lung cancer risk factors have been developed, but further refinement is needed to provide clinically useful risk stratification. Promising biomarkers of lung cancer risk and early detection have been identified, but none are ready for broad clinical application. Conclusions: Almost all lung cancer deaths are caused by cigarette smoking, underscoring the need for ongoing efforts at tobacco control throughout the world. Further research is needed into the reasons underlying lung cancer disparities, the causes of lung cancer in never smokers, the potential role of HIV in lung carcinogenesis, and the development of biomarkers. PMID:23649439

Optimising and Communicating Options for the Control of Invasive Plant Disease When There Is Epidemiological Uncertainty

PubMed Central

Cunniffe, Nik J.; Stutt, Richard O. J. H.; DeSimone, R. Erik; Gottwald, Tim R.; Gilligan, Christopher A.

2015-01-01

Although local eradication is routinely attempted following introduction of disease into a new region, failure is commonplace. Epidemiological principles governing the design of successful control are not well-understood. We analyse factors underlying the effectiveness of reactive eradication of localised outbreaks of invading plant disease, using citrus canker in Florida as a case study, although our results are largely generic, and apply to other plant pathogens (as we show via our second case study, citrus greening). We demonstrate how to optimise control via removal of hosts surrounding detected infection (i.e. localised culling) using a spatially-explicit, stochastic epidemiological model. We show how to define optimal culling strategies that take account of stochasticity in disease spread, and how the effectiveness of disease control depends on epidemiological parameters determining pathogen infectivity, symptom emergence and spread, the initial level of infection, and the logistics and implementation of detection and control. We also consider how optimal culling strategies are conditioned on the levels of risk acceptance/aversion of decision makers, and show how to extend the analyses to account for potential larger-scale impacts of a small-scale outbreak. Control of local outbreaks by culling can be very effective, particularly when started quickly, but the optimum strategy and its performance are strongly dependent on epidemiological parameters (particularly those controlling dispersal and the extent of any cryptic infection, i.e. infectious hosts prior to symptoms), the logistics of detection and control, and the level of local and global risk that is deemed to be acceptable. A version of the model we developed to illustrate our methodology and results to an audience of stakeholders, including policy makers, regulators and growers, is available online as an interactive, user-friendly interface at http://www.webidemics.com/. This version of our model

Variability and epistemic uncertainty in water ingestion rates and pharmacokinetic parameters, and impact on the association between perfluorooctanoate and preeclampsia in the C8 Health Project population.

PubMed

Avanasi, Raghavendhran; Shin, Hyeong-Moo; Vieira, Veronica M; Bartell, Scott M

2016-04-01

We recently utilized a suite of environmental fate and transport models and an integrated exposure and pharmacokinetic model to estimate individual perfluorooctanoate (PFOA) serum concentrations, and also assessed the association of those concentrations with preeclampsia for participants in the C8 Health Project (a cross-sectional study of over 69,000 people who were environmentally exposed to PFOA near a major U.S. fluoropolymer production facility located in West Virginia). However, the exposure estimates from this integrated model relied on default values for key independent exposure parameters including water ingestion rates, the serum PFOA half-life, and the volume of distribution for PFOA. The aim of the present study is to assess the impact of inter-individual variability and epistemic uncertainty in these parameters on the exposure estimates and subsequently, the epidemiological association between PFOA exposure and preeclampsia. We used Monte Carlo simulation to propagate inter-individual variability/epistemic uncertainty in the exposure assessment and reanalyzed the epidemiological association. Inter-individual variability in these parameters mildly impacted the serum PFOA concentration predictions (the lowest mean rank correlation between the estimated serum concentrations in our study and the original predicted serum concentrations was 0.95) and there was a negligible impact on the epidemiological association with preeclampsia (no change in the mean adjusted odds ratio (AOR) and the contribution of exposure uncertainty to the total uncertainty including sampling variability was 7%). However, when epistemic uncertainty was added along with the inter-individual variability, serum PFOA concentration predictions and their association with preeclampsia were moderately impacted (the mean AOR of preeclampsia occurrence was reduced from 1.12 to 1.09, and the contribution of exposure uncertainty to the total uncertainty was increased up to 33%). In conclusion

A Systematic Review of the Epidemiology of Echinococcosis in Domestic and Wild Animals

PubMed Central

Otero-Abad, Belen; Torgerson, Paul R.

2013-01-01

Background Human echinococcosis is a neglected zoonosis caused by parasites of the genus Echinococcus. The most frequent clinical forms of echinococcosis, cystic echinococcosis (CE) and alveolar echinococcosis (AE), are responsible for a substantial health and economic burden, particularly to low-income societies. Quantitative epidemiology can provide important information to improve the understanding of parasite transmission and hence is an important part of efforts to control this disease. The purpose of this review is to give an insight on factors associated with echinococcosis in animal hosts by summarising significant results reported from epidemiological studies identified through a systematic search. Methodology and Principal Findings The systematic search was conducted mainly in electronic databases but a few additional records were obtained from other sources. Retrieved entries were examined in order to identify available peer-reviewed epidemiological studies that found significant risk factors for infection using associative statistical methods. One hundred studies met the eligibility criteria and were suitable for data extraction. Epidemiological factors associated with increased risk of E. granulosus infection in dogs included feeding with raw viscera, possibility of scavenging dead animals, lack of anthelmintic treatment and owners' poor health education and indicators of poverty. Key factors associated with E. granulosus infection in intermediate hosts were related to the hosts' age and the intensity of environmental contamination with parasite eggs. E. multilocularis transmission dynamics in animal hosts depended on the interaction of several ecological factors, such as hosts' population densities, host-prey interactions, landscape characteristics, climate conditions and human-related activities. Conclusions/Significance Results derived from epidemiological studies provide a better understanding of the behavioural, biological and ecological factors

Epidemiology of Injuries in Stand-Up Paddle Boarding

PubMed Central

Furness, James; Olorunnife, Olayinka; Schram, Ben; Climstein, Mike; Hing, Wayne

2017-01-01

Background: Stand-up paddle boarding (SUP) is a recreational activity and sport that has grown exponentially, with participation increasing from 1.1 million in 2010 to 2.8 million in 2014 in the United States alone. Despite this growth in participation, SUP remains underresearched with regard to injury epidemiology. Purpose: To investigate injury epidemiology (severity, location, type, mechanism) in SUP. Study Design: Descriptive epidemiology study. Methods: An open-source online survey was administered to active SUP participants internationally. The survey captured information relevant to demographics, participation, and injury history over the past 12 months. Results: Of 240 participants included in the data analysis, 67.1% were males, and 54.6% were involved in competition. Participants spent a mean 192.6 ± 179.5 hours participating in SUP per year, most commonly for fun and fitness (43.3%) at the beach or bay (63.0%). A total of 95 participants had sustained at least 1 injury. A total of 161 injuries were recorded, resulting in an injury rate of 3.63 (95% CI, 3.04-4.16) per 1000 hours of SUP. The shoulder/upper arm was the most frequently injured body location, accounting for 32.9% of all injuries, followed by the lower back (14.3%) and the elbow/forearm (11.8%). The most common injury types were to muscle/tendon (50.4%), joint/ligament (22.6%), and skin (14.2%). Endurance paddling was the most frequently reported mechanism of injury (34.5%), followed by contact with a paddler’s own board (20.1%) and sprint paddling (9.3%). Key risk factors for sustaining an injury were age >46 years, competitive status, and participating for >4.8 hours/week, as well as using SUP for racing. Conclusion: This is the first study to report injury epidemiology for SUP. It is evident that both sexes participate in SUP for fun, fitness, and competition. With regard to injuries, the shoulder, lower back, and elbow are the most injury prone; older age, competitive status, and longer

Cancer Epidemiology Data Repository (CEDR)

Cancer.gov

In an effort to broaden access and facilitate efficient data sharing, the Epidemiology and Genomics Research Program (EGRP) has created the Cancer Epidemiology Data Repository (CEDR), a centralized, controlled-access database, where Investigators can deposit individual-level de-identified observational cancer datasets.

Factors involved in the paradox of reverse epidemiology.

PubMed

Martín-Ponce, Esther; Santolaria, Francisco; Alemán-Valls, María-Remedios; González-Reimers, Emilio; Martínez-Riera, Antonio; Rodríguez-Gaspar, Melchor; Rodríguez-Rodríguez, Eva

2010-08-01

The hypothesis of reverse epidemiology holds that some cardiovascular risk factors, such as obesity, hypercholesterolemia and hypertension, in the elderly or in some chronic diseases are not harmful but permit better survival. However, this phenomenon is controversial and the underlying reasons are poorly understood. To search for factors simultaneously linked to reverse epidemiology and to short or long term survival. We included 400 patients, older than 60 years, hospitalized in a general internal medicine unit; 61 died in hospital and 338 were followed up by telephone. Obesity, higher blood pressure and serum cholesterol, besides being related to lower mortality both in hospital and after discharge, were associated with better nutrition and functional capacity, less intense acute phase reaction and organ dysfunction, and lower incidence of high-mortality diseases such as dementia, pneumonia, sepsis or cancer. These associations may explain why obesity and other reverse epidemiology data are inversely related to mortality. Weight loss was related to mortality independently of BMI. Patients with BMI under 30 kg/m(2) who died in hospital showed more weight loss than those who survived; the lower the BMI, the greater the weight loss. In contrast, patients with BMI over 30 kg/m(2) who died in hospital gained more weight than those who survived; the higher the BMI, the greater the weight gain. In patients over 60 years of age admitted to an internal medicine ward, obesity did not show independent survival value, being displaced by other nutritional parameters, functional capacity, acute phase reaction, organ dysfunction and diseases with poor prognosis. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd and European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. All rights reserved.

Some applications of categorical data analysis to epidemiological studies.

PubMed Central

Grizzle, J E; Koch, G G

1979-01-01

Several examples of categorized data from epidemiological studies are analyzed to illustrate that more informative analysis than tests of independence can be performed by fitting models. All of the analyses fit into a unified conceptual framework that can be performed by weighted least squares. The methods presented show how to calculate point estimate of parameters, asymptotic variances, and asymptotically valid chi 2 tests. The examples presented are analysis of relative risks estimated from several 2 x 2 tables, analysis of selected features of life tables, construction of synthetic life tables from cross-sectional studies, and analysis of dose-response curves. PMID:540590

Mendelian randomization in nutritional epidemiology

PubMed Central

Qi, Lu

2013-01-01

Nutritional epidemiology aims to identify dietary and lifestyle causes for human diseases. Causality inference in nutritional epidemiology is largely based on evidence from studies of observational design, and may be distorted by unmeasured or residual confounding and reverse causation. Mendelian randomization is a recently developed methodology that combines genetic and classical epidemiological analysis to infer causality for environmental exposures, based on the principle of Mendel’s law of independent assortment. Mendelian randomization uses genetic variants as proxiesforenvironmentalexposuresofinterest.AssociationsderivedfromMendelian randomization analysis are less likely to be affected by confounding and reverse causation. During the past 5 years, a body of studies examined the causal effects of diet/lifestyle factors and biomarkers on a variety of diseases. The Mendelian randomization approach also holds considerable promise in the study of intrauterine influences on offspring health outcomes. However, the application of Mendelian randomization in nutritional epidemiology has some limitations. PMID:19674341

Evolution of the “Drivers” of Translational Cancer Epidemiology: Analysis of Funded Grants and the Literature

PubMed Central

Lam, Tram Kim; Chang, Christine Q.; Rogers, Scott D.; Khoury, Muin J.; Schully, Sheri D.

2015-01-01

Concurrently with a workshop sponsored by the National Cancer Institute, we identified key “drivers” for accelerating cancer epidemiology across the translational research continuum in the 21st century: emerging technologies, a multilevel approach, knowledge integration, and team science. To map the evolution of these “drivers” and translational phases (T0–T4) in the past decade, we analyzed cancer epidemiology grants funded by the National Cancer Institute and published literature for 2000, 2005, and 2010. For each year, we evaluated the aims of all new/competing grants and abstracts of randomly selected PubMed articles. Compared with grants based on a single institution, consortium-based grants were more likely to incorporate contemporary technologies (P = 0.012), engage in multilevel analyses (P = 0.010), and incorporate elements of knowledge integration (P = 0.036). Approximately 74% of analyzed grants and publications involved discovery (T0) or characterization (T1) research, suggesting a need for more translational (T2–T4) research. Our evaluation indicated limited research in 1) a multilevel approach that incorporates molecular, individual, social, and environmental determinants and 2) knowledge integration that evaluates the robustness of scientific evidence. Cancer epidemiology is at the cusp of a paradigm shift, and the field will need to accelerate the pace of translating scientific discoveries in order to impart population health benefits. While multi-institutional and technology-driven collaboration is happening, concerted efforts to incorporate other key elements are warranted for the discipline to meet future challenges. PMID:25767265

[Key physical parameters of hawthorn leaf granules by stepwise regression analysis method].

PubMed

Jiang, Qie-Ying; Zeng, Rong-Gui; Li, Zhe; Luo, Juan; Zhao, Guo-Wei; Lv, Dan; Liao, Zheng-Gen

2017-05-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of key physical properties of hawthorn leaf granule on its dissolution behavior. Hawthorn leaves extract was utilized as a model drug. The extract was mixed with microcrystalline cellulose or starch with the same ratio by using different methods. Appropriate amount of lubricant and disintegrating agent was added into part of the mixed powder, and then the granules were prepared by using extrusion granulation and high shear granulation. The granules dissolution behavior was evaluated by using equilibrium dissolution quantity and dissolution rate constant of the hypericin as the indicators. Then the effect of physical properties on dissolution behavior was analyzed through the stepwise regression analysis method. The equilibrium dissolution quantity of hypericin and adsorption heat constant in hawthorn leaves were positively correlated with the monolayer adsorption capacity and negatively correlated with the moisture absorption rate constant. The dissolution rate constants were decreased with the increase of Hausner rate, monolayer adsorption capacity and adsorption heat constant, and were increased with the increase of Carr index and specific surface area. Adsorption heat constant, monolayer adsorption capacity, moisture absorption rate constant, Carr index and specific surface area were the key physical properties of hawthorn leaf granule to affect its dissolution behavior. Copyright© by the Chinese Pharmaceutical Association.

Breast Cancer Epidemiology in Puerto Rico

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-06-01

cancer epidemiology. Dr. Rosario took a course on Social Epidemiology at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health Baltimore, MD. June 29 to...July 3, 2009. This course offered an overview of conceptual and methodological approaches relevant to the study of the impact of social factors on...conference call. 2. Training: a. Courses: i. Attended a course on Social Epidemiology at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health

The School Psychologist's Primer on Early Onset Schizophrenia: A Review of Research Regarding Epidemiology, Etiology, Assessment, and Treatment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hernandez, Rafael J. C.; Rime, W. Jeremy; Jimerson, Shane R.

2013-01-01

The purpose of this article is to provide school psychologists and other educational professionals with important information regarding the epidemiology, etiology, assessment, and treatment of early onset schizophrenia (EOS). The central aim herein is to bring science to practice by succinctly highlighting key considerations for school…

Red Meat and Colorectal Cancer: A Quantitative Update on the State of the Epidemiologic Science

PubMed Central

Alexander, Dominik D.; Weed, Douglas L.; Miller, Paula E.; Mohamed, Muhima A.

2015-01-01

The potential relationship between red meat consumption and colorectal cancer (CRC) has been the subject of scientific debate. Given the high degree of resulting uncertainty, our objective was to update the state of the science by conducting a systematic quantitative assessment of the epidemiologic literature. Specifically, we updated and expanded our previous meta-analysis by integrating data from new prospective cohort studies and conducting a broader evaluation of the relative risk estimates by specific intake categories. Data from 27 independent prospective cohort studies were meta-analyzed using random-effects models, and sources of potential heterogeneity were examined through subgroup and sensitivity analyses. In addition, a comprehensive evaluation of potential dose-response patterns was conducted. In the meta-analysis of all cohorts, a weakly elevated summary relative risk was observed (1.11, 95% CI: 1.03–1.19); however, statistically significant heterogeneity was present. In general, summary associations were attenuated (closer to the null and less heterogeneous) in models that isolated fresh red meat (from processed meat), adjusted for more relevant factors, analyzed women only, and were conducted in countries outside of the United States. Furthermore, no clear patterns of dose-response were apparent. In conclusion, the state of the epidemiologic science on red meat consumption and CRC is best described in terms of weak associations, heterogeneity, an inability to disentangle effects from other dietary and lifestyle factors, lack of a clear dose-response effect, and weakening evidence over time. Key Teaching Points: •The role of red meat consumption in colorectal cancer risk has been widely contested among the scientific community.•In the current meta-analysis of red meat intake and colorectal cancer, we comprehensively examined associations by creating numerous sub-group stratifications, conducting extensive sensitivity analyses, and evaluating

Ancient Disease, Modern Epidemiology: A Century of Progress in Understanding and Fighting Tuberculosis.

PubMed

Zwerling, Alice; Hanrahan, Colleen; Dowdy, David W

2016-03-01

A century's worth of efforts to better understand the epidemiology of tuberculosis (TB) and to develop new vaccines, drugs, preventive interventions, and case-finding approaches have provided important insights and helped to advance the field of epidemiology as a whole. Wade Hampton Frost developed methods for cohort analysis that formed the early basis for adjustment of confounding variables. The streptomycin trial in the United Kingdom in the 1940s introduced random allocation for participants to either the treatment or control group, ensuring blinded treatment assignment and comparable treatment groups, which is now a key element in randomized clinical trials. Research into the bacille Calmette-Guérin vaccine demonstrated the importance of comparative analyses, potential difficulties in generalizability to populations not under study, and the role of meta-analysis for discrepant data-approaches now strongly recommended prior to implementing any novel public health intervention. George Comstock's work on preventive therapy for TB demonstrated the use of epidemiologic methods to evaluate interventions on a population level. Finally, studies from the Consortium to Respond Effectively to the AIDS/TB Epidemic focused on the evaluation of real-world effectiveness and of targeting of high-risk subpopulations. In this article, we discuss how TB research in each of these domains has helped to advance epidemiologic thinking and methodology over the past 100 years. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Current status and future prospects of epidemiology and public health training and research in the WHO African region

PubMed Central

Nachega, Jean B; Uthman, Olalekan A; Ho, Yuh-Shan; Lo, Melanie; Anude, Chuka; Kayembe, Patrick; Wabwire-Mangen, Fred; Gomo, Exnevia; Sow, Papa Salif; Obike, Ude; Kusiaku, Theophile; Mills, Edward J; Mayosi, Bongani M; IJsselmuiden, Carel

2012-01-01

Background To date little has been published about epidemiology and public health capacity (training, research, funding, human resources) in WHO/AFRO to help guide future planning by various stakeholders. Methods A bibliometric analysis was performed to identify published epidemiological research. Information about epidemiology and public health training, current research and challenges was collected from key informants using a standardized questionnaire. Results From 1991 to 2010, epidemiology and public health research output in the WHO/AFRO region increased from 172 to 1086 peer-reviewed articles per annum [annual percentage change (APC) = 10.1%, P for trend < 0.001]. The most common topics were HIV/AIDS (11.3%), malaria (8.6%) and tuberculosis (7.1%). Similarly, numbers of first authors (APC = 7.3%, P for trend < 0.001), corresponding authors (APC = 8.4%, P for trend < 0.001) and last authors (APC = 8.5%, P for trend < 0.001) from Africa increased during the same period. However, an overwhelming majority of respondents (>90%) reported that this increase is only rarely linked to regional post-graduate training programmes in epidemiology. South Africa leads in publications (1978/8835, 22.4%), followed by Kenya (851/8835, 9.6%), Nigeria (758/8835, 8.6%), Tanzania (549/8835, 6.2%) and Uganda (428/8835, 4.8%) (P < 0.001, each vs South Africa). Independent predictors of relevant research productivity were ‘in-country numbers of epidemiology or public health programmes’ [incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 3.41; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.90–6.11; P = 0.03] and ‘number of HIV/AIDS patients’ (IRR = 1.30; 95% CI 1.02–1.66; P < 0.001). Conclusions Since 1991, there has been increasing epidemiological research productivity in WHO/AFRO that is associated with the number of epidemiology programmes and burden of HIV/AIDS cases. More capacity building and training initiatives in epidemiology are required to promote research and address the public health challenges

Current status and future prospects of epidemiology and public health training and research in the WHO African region.

PubMed

Nachega, Jean B; Uthman, Olalekan A; Ho, Yuh-Shan; Lo, Melanie; Anude, Chuka; Kayembe, Patrick; Wabwire-Mangen, Fred; Gomo, Exnevia; Sow, Papa Salif; Obike, Ude; Kusiaku, Theophile; Mills, Edward J; Mayosi, Bongani M; Ijsselmuiden, Carel

2012-12-01

To date little has been published about epidemiology and public health capacity (training, research, funding, human resources) in WHO/AFRO to help guide future planning by various stakeholders. A bibliometric analysis was performed to identify published epidemiological research. Information about epidemiology and public health training, current research and challenges was collected from key informants using a standardized questionnaire. From 1991 to 2010, epidemiology and public health research output in the WHO/AFRO region increased from 172 to 1086 peer-reviewed articles per annum [annual percentage change (APC) = 10.1%, P for trend < 0.001]. The most common topics were HIV/AIDS (11.3%), malaria (8.6%) and tuberculosis (7.1%). Similarly, numbers of first authors (APC = 7.3%, P for trend < 0.001), corresponding authors (APC = 8.4%, P for trend < 0.001) and last authors (APC = 8.5%, P for trend < 0.001) from Africa increased during the same period. However, an overwhelming majority of respondents (>90%) reported that this increase is only rarely linked to regional post-graduate training programmes in epidemiology. South Africa leads in publications (1978/8835, 22.4%), followed by Kenya (851/8835, 9.6%), Nigeria (758/8835, 8.6%), Tanzania (549/8835, 6.2%) and Uganda (428/8835, 4.8%) (P < 0.001, each vs South Africa). Independent predictors of relevant research productivity were 'in-country numbers of epidemiology or public health programmes' [incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 3.41; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.90-6.11; P = 0.03] and 'number of HIV/AIDS patients' (IRR = 1.30; 95% CI 1.02-1.66; P < 0.001). Since 1991, there has been increasing epidemiological research productivity in WHO/AFRO that is associated with the number of epidemiology programmes and burden of HIV/AIDS cases. More capacity building and training initiatives in epidemiology are required to promote research and address the public health challenges facing the continent.

Recognizing Excellence in Maternal and Child Health (MCH) Epidemiology: The 2014 National MCH Epidemiology Awards

PubMed Central

Vladutiu, Catherine J.; Jones, Jessica R.

2016-01-01

Purpose The impact of programs, policies, and practices developed by professionals in the field of maternal and child health (MCH) epidemiology is highlighted biennially by 16 national MCH agencies and organizations, or the Coalition for Excellence in MCH Epidemiology. Description In September 2014, multiple leading agencies in the field of MCH partnered to host the national CityMatCH Leadership and MCH Epidemiology Conference in Phoenix, Arizona. The conference offered opportunities for peer exchange; presentation of new scientific methodologies, programs, and policies; dialogue on changes in the MCH field; and discussion of emerging MCH issues relevant to the work of local, state, and national MCH professionals. During the conference, the National MCH Epidemiology Awards were presented to individuals, teams, institutions, and leaders for significantly contributing to the improved health of women, children, and families. Assessment During the conference, the Coalition presented seven deserving health researchers and research groups with national awards in the areas of advancing knowledge, effective practice, outstanding leadership, young professional achievement, and lifetime achievement. The article highlights the accomplishments of these national-level awardees. Conclusion Recognition of deserving professionals strengthens the field of MCH epidemiology, and sets the standard for exceptional research, mentoring, and practice. PMID:26723200

The trends of burns epidemiology in a tropical regional burns centre.

PubMed

Hwee, Jolie; Song, Christopher; Tan, Kok Chai; Tan, Bien Keem; Chong, Si Jack

2016-05-01

Singapore General Hospital (SGH) is a regional burns centre in Southeast Asia and is the only dedicated burns facility providing specialized burns care in Singapore. A cohort study was performed for burns patients admitted to SGH from 2011 to 2013. We compared our data with earlier studies and observed the trends of burns epidemiology in Singapore. Results were analyzed using the SPSS programme. 655 patients were admitted during this study period, a 35.9% increase from 2003 to 2005. Scalding by water and flame injury remain the top causes of burns and the mean extent of burn is 9.5%. TBSA correlates with the incidence of burn infection, bacteremia and mortality. Patients with ≥20% TBSA are at a higher risk of bacteremia, and ≥ 34% TBSA is a predictor of mortality. 4.9% (n=32) of our patients developed bacteremia. Bacteremia was associated with a surgical duration of ≥80min. Patients with bacteremia incurred longer hospitalization, and had higher mortality rates. Overall mortality rate of our burns patients has decreased from 4.5% to 2.7% (n=18). Key factors of mortality include inhalational injury, bacteremia and ≥20% TBSA. This is a large epidemiology study of a tropical region burns centre. A total of 655 burns cases over a 3-year period were analyzed. We analysed the key factors associated with adverse outcomes including burns infection, bacteremia and mortality, factors associated with mortality, and discussed strategies on the optimization of burns care. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and ISBI. All rights reserved.

Effect of Simultaneous Inoculation with Yeast and Bacteria on Fermentation Kinetics and Key Wine Parameters of Cool-Climate Chardonnay

PubMed Central

Jussier, Delphine; Dubé Morneau, Amélie; Mira de Orduña, Ramón

2006-01-01

Inoculating grape musts with wine yeast and lactic acid bacteria (LAB) concurrently in order to induce simultaneous alcoholic fermentation (AF) and malolactic fermentation (MLF) can be an efficient alternative to overcome potential inhibition of LAB in wines because of high ethanol concentrations and reduced nutrient content. In this study, the simultaneous inoculation of yeast and LAB into must was compared with a traditional vinification protocol, where MLF was induced after completion of AF. For this, two suitable commercial yeast-bacterium combinations were tested in cool-climate Chardonnay must. The time courses of glucose and fructose, acetaldehyde, several organic acids, and nitrogenous compounds were measured along with the final values of other key wine parameters. Sensory evaluation was done after 12 months of storage. The current study could not confirm a negative impact of simultaneous AF/MLF on fermentation success and kinetics or on final wine parameters. While acetic acid concentrations were slightly increased in wines after simultaneous AF/MLF, the differences were of neither practical nor legal significance. No statistically significant differences were found with regard to the final values of pH or total acidity and the concentrations of ethanol, acetaldehyde, glycerol, citric and lactic acids, and the nitrogen compounds arginine, ammonia, urea, citrulline, and ornithine. Sensory evaluation by a semiexpert panel confirmed the similarity of the wines. However, simultaneous inoculation led to considerable reductions in overall fermentation durations. Furthermore, differences of physiological and microbiological relevance were found. Specifically, we report the vinification of “super-dry” wines devoid of glucose and fructose after simultaneous inoculation of yeast and bacteria. PMID:16391046

Life course perspectives on the epidemiology of depression.

PubMed

Colman, Ian; Ataullahjan, Anushka

2010-10-01

Life course epidemiology seeks to understand how determinants of health and disease interact across the span of a human life, and has made significant contributions to understanding etiological mechanisms in many chronic diseases, including schizophrenia. The life course approach is ideal for understanding depression: causation in depression appears to be multifactorial, including interactions between genes and stressful events, or between early life trauma and later stress in life; timing of onset and remission of depression varies widely, indicating differing trajectories of symptoms over long periods of time, with possible differing causes and differing outcomes; and early life events and development appear to be important risk factors for depression, including exposure to acute and chronic stress in the first years of life. To better understand etiology and outcome of depression, future research must move beyond basic epidemiologic techniques that link specific exposures to specific outcomes and embrace life course principles and methods. Time-sensitive modelling techniques that are able to incorporate multiple interacting factors across long periods of time, such as structural equation models, will be critical in understanding the complexity of causal and influencing factors from early development to the end stages of life. Using these models to identify key pathways that influence trajectories of depression across the life course will help guide prevention and intervention.

Reducing the global burden of type 2 diabetes by improving the quality of staple foods: The Global Nutrition and Epidemiologic Transition Initiative.

PubMed

Mattei, Josiemer; Malik, Vasanti; Wedick, Nicole M; Hu, Frank B; Spiegelman, Donna; Willett, Walter C; Campos, Hannia

2015-06-04

The prevalence of type 2 diabetes has been reaching epidemic proportions across the globe, affecting low/middle-income and developed countries. Two main contributors to this burden are the reduction in mortality from infectious conditions and concomitant negative changes in lifestyles, including diet. We aimed to depict the current state of type 2 diabetes worldwide in light of the undergoing epidemiologic and nutrition transition, and to posit that a key factor in the nutrition transition has been the shift in the type and processing of staple foods, from less processed traditional foods to highly refined and processed carbohydrate sources. We showed data from 11 countries participating in the Global Nutrition and Epidemiologic Transition Initiative, a collaborative effort across countries at various stages of the nutrition-epidemiologic transition whose mission is to reduce diabetes by improving the quality of staple foods through culturally-appropriate interventions. We depicted the epidemiologic transition using demographic and mortality data from the World Health Organization, and the nutrition transition using data from the Food and Agriculture Organization food balance sheets. Main staple foods (maize, rice, wheat, pulses, and roots) differed by country, with most countries undergoing a shift in principal contributors to energy consumption from grains in the past 50 years. Notably, rice and wheat products accounted for over half of the contribution to energy consumption from staple grains, while the trends for contribution from roots and pulses generally decreased in most countries. Global Nutrition and Epidemiologic Transition Initiative countries with pilot data have documented key barriers and motivators to increase intake of high-quality staple foods. Global research efforts to identify and promote intake of culturally-acceptable high-quality staple foods could be crucial in preventing diabetes. These efforts may be valuable in shaping future research

Microbial Etiology of Pneumonia: Epidemiology, Diagnosis and Resistance Patterns.

PubMed

Cilloniz, Catia; Martin-Loeches, Ignacio; Garcia-Vidal, Carolina; San Jose, Alicia; Torres, Antoni

2016-12-16

Globally, pneumonia is a serious public health concern and a major cause of mortality and morbidity. Despite advances in antimicrobial therapies, microbiological diagnostic tests and prevention measures, pneumonia remains the main cause of death from infectious disease in the world. An important reason for the increased global mortality is the impact of pneumonia on chronic diseases, along with the increasing age of the population and the virulence factors of the causative microorganism. The increasing number of multidrug-resistant bacteria, difficult-to-treat microorganisms, and the emergence of new pathogens are a major problem for clinicians when deciding antimicrobial therapy. A key factor for managing and effectively guiding appropriate antimicrobial therapy is an understanding of the role of the different causative microorganisms in the etiology of pneumonia, since it has been shown that the adequacy of initial antimicrobial therapy is a key factor for prognosis in pneumonia. Furthermore, broad-spectrum antibiotic therapies are sometimes given until microbiological results are available and de-escalation cannot be performed quickly. This review provides an overview of microbial etiology, resistance patterns, epidemiology and microbial diagnosis of pneumonia.

[Epidemiology of lung tumors].

PubMed

Ott, S; Geiser, T

2012-07-01

Approximately one out of 500 chest radiographs shows the incidental finding of a solitary pulmonary nodule and almost one half of these pulmonary lesions are caused by a tumor. Unfortunately, only 2% to 5% of all lung tumors are of benign origin, e. g. lipoma, fibroma, hamartoma, and chondroma, and the majority are malignant neoplasms, most commonly primary lung cancer followed by metastases of extrapulmonary primary carcinomas. Thus, a careful diagnostic work up of solitary pulmonary nodules, including histological diagnosis, is mandatory for an adequate management and treatment of patients with pulmonary lesions. Despite all recent improvements of treatment modalities, lung cancer continues to be a major cause of morbidity and mortality among malignant diseases worldwide. The prognosis of affected patients is still very poor and a 5-years survival rate of only 14% makes lung cancer the number one cause of death due to cancer in Switzerland. Active and passive tobacco smoking are by far the best known risk factor for the development of lung cancer, but there are severe other probably less known factors that may increase the individual risk for malignant neoplasms of the lung. These risk factors include e. g. exposure to natural ionic radiation, consisting of terrestrial radiation and indoor radiation caused by radon gas, exposure to respirable dust and Diesel engine emissions, asbestos, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. In the majority of cases, the latency between exposure and development of cancer is years to decades and the person concerned was occupationally exposed. Therefore, a detailed evaluation of a patient's medical and occupational history is needed. Due to its poor prognosis, prevention and early diagnosis of lung cancer is crucial to improve our patients' outcome. Good knowledge of epidemiology and aetiology of pulmonary tumors is the key to preventive measures and identification of individuals at increased risk for lung cancer. An overview will

Assessing demographic and epidemiologic parameters of rural dog populations in India during mass vaccination campaigns.

PubMed

Belsare, Aniruddha V; Gompper, Matthew E

2013-08-01

Mass vaccination of dogs is a mainstay for efforts to control rabies and other viral pathogens. The success of such programs is a function of the ability to vaccinate sufficient proportions of animals to develop herd immunity. However, fully assessing success in reaching target vaccination-levels and in understanding the outcome of mass vaccination efforts is hindered if insufficient information is available on the demographics of dog populations and the prevalence of the targeted pathogens. While such information can sometimes be gained from questionnaire surveys, greater precision requires direct assessment of the dog populations. Here we show how such information can be gained from surveys of dogs conducted in association with mass-vaccination programs. We conducted surveys of dogs in six villages in rural Maharashtra, India, between February and July 2011 as part of an effort to reduce the risk of human rabies and virus transmission from dogs to wildlife. Mass vaccination efforts were conducted in each village, and paired with blood sample collection and photographic mark-recapture approaches to gain epidemiologic and demographic data. This data in turn facilitated estimates of dog abundance, population density and structure, vaccination coverage, and seroprevalence of antibodies against canine adenovirus (CAV), canine parvovirus (CPV), and canine distemper virus (CDV). The median dog population size for the six villages was 134 (range 90-188), the median dog population density was 719 dogs per km(2) (range 526-969), and the median human:dog ratio for these six villages was 34 (range 30-47). The median household:dog ratio for the six villages was 6 (range 5-8). Following vaccination efforts, the median vaccination coverage achieved was 34% (range 24-42%). The dog populations consisted mostly of adult dogs (67-86%) and the median sex ratio for the study area was male biased (1.55 males per female; range 0.9-2.5). The seroprevalence of antibodies against CAV, CPV

Epidemiology of depression in diabetes: international and cross-cultural issues.

PubMed

Lloyd, Cathy E; Roy, Tapash; Nouwen, Arie; Chauhan, Asha M

2012-10-01

This paper reviews the most up-to-date epidemiological evidence of the relationship between depression and diabetes, and considers the risk factors for the development of depression and the consequences of depression in diabetes with an emphasis on international and cross-cultural data. The difficulties that researchers face when epidemiological studies require assessment of psychological phenomena, such as depression, across different cultural settings are explored. Relevant papers were sought on the epidemiology of diabetes and depression in people with diabetes by undertaking a literature search of electronic databases including MEDLINE, Psych-INFO, CINAHL and EMBASE. These papers were assessed by the authors and a narrative review of the relevant literature was composed. Systematic reviews of the prevalence of depression in people with diabetes have focused on studies conducted in English speaking countries and emerging data suggest that there may be international variations in prevalence and also in how symptoms of depression are reported. There appears to be a bi-directional relationship between depression and diabetes, with one influencing the other; however, research in this area is further complicated by the fact that potential risk factors for depression in people with diabetes often interact with each other and with other factors. Further research is needed to elucidate the causal mechanisms underlying these associations. Data from non-English speaking countries remain scarce and so it is difficult to come to any firm conclusions as to the international variation in prevalence rates of co-morbid diabetes and depression in these countries until further research has been conducted. It is important to take a culture-centered approach to our understanding of mental health and illness and consider the key issues related to the development of culturally sensitive depression screening tools. In order to come to any firm conclusions about the international

Modeling the hepatitis A epidemiological transition in Brazil and Mexico

PubMed Central

Van Effelterre, Thierry; Guignard, Adrienne; Marano, Cinzia; Rojas, Rosalba; Jacobsen, Kathryn H.

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Background: Many low- to middle-income countries have completed or are in the process of transitioning from high or intermediate to low endemicity for hepatitis A virus (HAV). Because the risk of severe hepatitis A disease increases with age at infection, decreased incidence that leaves older children and adults susceptible to HAV infection may actually increase the population-level burden of disease from HAV. Mathematical models can be helpful for projecting future epidemiological profiles for HAV. Methods: An age-specific deterministic, dynamic compartmental transmission model with stratification by setting (rural versus urban) was calibrated with country-specific data on demography, urbanization, and seroprevalence of anti-HAV antibodies. HAV transmission was modeled as a function of setting-specific access to safe water. The model was then used to project various HAV-related epidemiological outcomes in Brazil and in Mexico from 1950 to 2050. Results: The projected epidemiological outcomes were qualitatively similar in the 2 countries. The age at the midpoint of population immunity (AMPI) increased considerably and the mean age of symptomatic HAV cases shifted from childhood to early adulthood. The projected overall incidence rate of HAV infections decreased by about two thirds as safe water access improved. However, the incidence rate of symptomatic HAV infections remained roughly the same over the projection period. The incidence rates of HAV infections (all and symptomatic alone) were projected to become similar in rural and urban settings in the next decades. Conclusion: This model featuring population age structure, urbanization and access to safe water as key contributors to the epidemiological transition for HAV was previously validated with data from Thailand and fits equally well with data from Latin American countries. Assuming no introduction of a vaccination program over the projection period, both Brazil and Mexico were projected to

Methodological considerations, such as directed acyclic graphs, for studying "acute on chronic" disease epidemiology: chronic obstructive pulmonary disease example.

PubMed

Tsai, Chu-Lin; Camargo, Carlos A

2009-09-01

Acute exacerbations of chronic disease are ubiquitous in clinical medicine, and thus far, there has been a paucity of integrated methodological discussion on this phenomenon. We use acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease as an example to emphasize key epidemiological and statistical issues for this understudied field in clinical epidemiology. Directed acyclic graphs are a useful epidemiological tool to explain the differential effects of risk factor on health outcomes in studies of acute and chronic phases of disease. To study the pathogenesis of acute exacerbations of chronic disease, case-crossover design and time-series analysis are well-suited study designs to differentiate acute and chronic effect. Modeling changes over time and setting appropriate thresholds are important steps to separate acute from chronic phases of disease in serial measurements. In statistical analysis, acute exacerbations are recurrent events, and some individuals are more prone to recurrences than others. Therefore, appropriate statistical modeling should take into account intraindividual dependence. Finally, we recommend the use of "event-based" number needed to treat (NNT) to prevent a single exacerbation instead of traditional patient-based NNT. Addressing these methodological challenges will advance research quality in acute on chronic disease epidemiology.

Impact of dissolved oxygen concentration on some key parameters and production of rhG-CSF in batch fermentation.

PubMed

Krishna Rao, Dasari V; Ramu, Chatadi T; Rao, Joginapally V; Narasu, Mangamoori L; Bhujanga Rao, Adibhatla Kali S

2008-09-01

The impact of different levels of agitation speed, carbondioxide and dissolved oxygen concentration on the key parameters and production of rhG-CSF in Escherichia coli BL21(DE3)PLysS were studied. Lower carbondioxide concentrations as well as higher agitation speeds and dissolved oxygen concentrations led to reduction in the acetate concentrations, and enhanced the cell growth, but inhibited plasmid stability and rhG-CSF expression. Similarly, higher carbondioxide concentrations and lower agitation speeds as well as dissolved oxygen concentrations led to enhanced acetate concentrations, but inhibited the cell growth and protein expression. To address the bottlenecks, a two-stage agitation control strategy (strategy-1) and two-stage dissolved oxygen control strategy (strategy-2) were employed to establish the physiological and metabolic conditions, so as to improve the expression of rhG-CSF. By adopting strategy-1 the yields were improved 1.4-fold over constant speed of 550 rpm, 1.1-fold over constant dissolved oxygen of 45%, respectively. Similarly, using strategy-2 the yields were improved 1.6-fold over constant speed of 550 rpm, 1.3-fold over constant dissolved oxygen of 45%, respectively.

The science of epidemiology and the methods needed for public health assessments: a review of epidemiology textbooks.

PubMed

Gouda, Hebe N; Powles, John W

2014-02-10

Epidemiology is often described as 'the science of public health'. Here we aim to assess the extent that epidemiological methods, as covered in contemporary standard textbooks, provide tools that can assess the relative magnitude of public health problems and can be used to help rank and assess public health priorities. Narrative literature review. Thirty textbooks were grouped into three categories; pure, extended or applied epidemiology, were reviewed with attention to the ways the discipline is characterised and the nature of the analytical methods described. Pure texts tend to present a strict hierarchy of methods with those metrics deemed to best serve aetiological inquiry at the top. Extended and applied texts employ broader definitions of epidemiology but in most cases, the metrics described are also those used in aetiological inquiry and may not be optimal for capturing the consequences and social importance of injuries and disease onsets. The primary scientific purpose of epidemiology, even amongst 'applied' textbooks, is aetiological inquiry. Authors do not readily extend to methods suitable for assessing public health problems and priorities.

Epidemiology of Ciguatera in Florida

PubMed Central

Radke, Elizabeth G.; Reich, Andrew; Morris, John Glenn

2015-01-01

Ciguatera is the most commonly reported marine food-borne illness worldwide. Because there is a biological plausibility that ciguatera may be impacted by long-term climate variability and Florida is on the northern border of the geographic distribution of ciguatera, it is important to update our understanding of its epidemiology in Florida. We performed an analysis of 291 reports in Florida from 2000 to 2011 and an e-mail survey of 5,352 recreational fishers to estimate incidence and underreporting and identify high risk demographic groups, fish types, and catch locations. Incidence was 5.6 per 100,000 adjusted for underreporting. Hispanics had the highest incidence rate (relative risk [RR] = 3.4) and were more likely to eat barracuda than non-Hispanics. The most common catch locations for ciguatera-causing fish were the Bahamas and Florida Keys. Cases caused by fish from northern Florida were infrequent. These results indicate that ciguatera incidence is higher than estimated from public health reports alone. There is little evidence that incidence or geographic range has increased because of increased seawater temperatures since earlier studies. PMID:26123957

Genetics and epidemiology, congenital anomalies and cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Friedman, J.M.

1997-03-01

Many of the basic statistical methods used in epidemiology - regression, analysis of variance, and estimation of relative risk, for example - originally were developed for the genetic analysis of biometric data. The familiarity that many geneticists have with this methodology has helped geneticists to understand and accept genetic epidemiology as a scientific discipline. It worth noting, however, that most of the work in genetic epidemiology during the past decade has been devoted to linkage and other family studies, rather than to population-based investigations of the type that characterize much of mainstream epidemiology. 30 refs., 2 tabs.

Mitochondrial DNA and Cancer Epidemiology Workshop

Cancer.gov

A workshop to review the state-of-the science in the mitochondrial DNA field and its use in cancer epidemiology, and to develop a concept for a research initiative on mitochondrial DNA and cancer epidemiology.

[Epidemiology of the animal prion diseases].

PubMed

Domínguez Carmona, M

2001-01-01

The authors review the epidemiology of spongiform encephalitis, discussing the possible mechanism of appearance of the epidemic bovine spongiform encephalitis epidemic, leaving aside to another publication the epidemiology of the human spongiform encephalitis and its pathogeny.

African swine fever: an epidemiological update.

PubMed

Sánchez-Vizcaíno, J M; Mur, L; Martínez-López, B

2012-03-01

African swine fever (ASF) is one of the most important swine diseases, mainly because of its significant sanitary and socioeconomic consequences. This review gives an update on the epidemiology of the disease and reviews key issues and strategies to improve control of the disease and promote its eradication. Several characteristics of ASF virus (ASFV) make its control and eradication difficult, including the absence of available vaccines, marked virus resistance in infected material and contaminated animal products, and a complex epidemiology and transmission involving tick reservoir virus interactions. The incidence of ASF has not only increased on the African continent over the last 15 years, so that it now affects West African countries, Mauritius and Madagascar, but it has also reached new areas, such as the Caucasus region in 2007. In fact, the rapid spread of the disease on the European continent and the uncontrolled situation in the Russian Federation places all countries at great risk as a result of intense global trade. The proximity of some affected areas to the European Union (EU) borders (<150 km) has increased concerns about the potential economic consequences of an ASF incursion into the EU pig sector. Establishing effective surveillance, control and eradication programmes that implicate all actors (veterinarians, farmers, and policy makers) is essential for controlling ASF. African swine fever -free countries should be aware of the potential risk of ASF incursion and implement risk reduction measures such as trade controls and other sanitary measures. This review will discuss lessons learnt so far about ASF control, current challenges to its control and future studies needed to support global efforts at prevention and control. © 2012 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Translational Epidemiology in Psychiatry

PubMed Central

Weissman, Myrna M.; Brown, Alan S.; Talati, Ardesheer

2012-01-01

Translational research generally refers to the application of knowledge generated by advances in basic sciences research translated into new approaches for diagnosis, prevention, and treatment of disease. This direction is called bench-to-bedside. Psychiatry has similarly emphasized the basic sciences as the starting point of translational research. This article introduces the term translational epidemiology for psychiatry research as a bidirectional concept in which the knowledge generated from the bedside or the population can also be translated to the benches of laboratory science. Epidemiologic studies are primarily observational but can generate representative samples, novel designs, and hypotheses that can be translated into more tractable experimental approaches in the clinical and basic sciences. This bedside-to-bench concept has not been explicated in psychiatry, although there are an increasing number of examples in the research literature. This article describes selected epidemiologic designs, providing examples and opportunities for translational research from community surveys and prospective, birth cohort, and family-based designs. Rapid developments in informatics, emphases on large sample collection for genetic and biomarker studies, and interest in personalized medicine—which requires information on relative and absolute risk factors—make this topic timely. The approach described has implications for providing fresh metaphors to communicate complex issues in interdisciplinary collaborations and for training in epidemiology and other sciences in psychiatry. PMID:21646577

Pesticide Exposure and Neurodevelopmental Outcomes: Review of the Epidemiologic and Animal Studies

PubMed Central

Burns, Carol J.; McIntosh, Laura J.; Mink, Pamela J.; Jurek, Anne M.; Li, Abby A.

2013-01-01

Assessment of whether pesticide exposure is associated with neurodevelopmental outcomes in children can best be addressed with a systematic review of both the human and animal peer-reviewed literature. This review analyzed epidemiologic studies testing the hypothesis that exposure to pesticides during pregnancy and/or early childhood is associated with neurodevelopmental outcomes in children. Studies that directly queried pesticide exposure (e.g., via questionnaire or interview) or measured pesticide or metabolite levels in biological specimens from study participants (e.g., blood, urine, etc.) or their immediate environment (e.g., personal air monitoring, home dust samples, etc.) were eligible for inclusion. Consistency, strength of association, and dose response were key elements of the framework utilized for evaluating epidemiologic studies. As a whole, the epidemiologic studies did not strongly implicate any particular pesticide as being causally related to adverse neurodevelopmental outcomes in infants and children. A few associations were unique for a health outcome and specific pesticide, and alternative hypotheses could not be ruled out. Our survey of the in vivo peer-reviewed published mammalian literature focused on effects of the specific active ingredient of pesticides on functional neurodevelopmental endpoints (i.e., behavior, neuropharmacology and neuropathology). In most cases, effects were noted at dose levels within the same order of magnitude or higher compared to the point of departure used for chronic risk assessments in the United States. Thus, although the published animal studies may have characterized potential neurodevelopmental outcomes using endpoints not required by guideline studies, the effects were generally observed at or above effect levels measured in repeated-dose toxicology studies submitted to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Suggestions for improved exposure assessment in epidemiology studies and more effective

Snippets from the past: the evolution of Wade Hampton Frost's epidemiology as viewed from the American Journal of Hygiene/Epidemiology.

PubMed

Morabia, Alfredo

2013-10-01

Wade Hampton Frost, who was a Professor of Epidemiology at Johns Hopkins University from 1919 to 1938, spurred the development of epidemiologic methods. His 6 publications in the American Journal of Hygiene, which later became the American Journal of Epidemiology, comprise a 1928 Cutter lecture on a theory of epidemics, a survey-based study of tonsillectomy and immunity to Corynebacterium diphtheriae (1931), 2 papers from a longitudinal study of the incidence of minor respiratory diseases (1933 and 1935), an attack rate ratio analysis of the decline of diphtheria in Baltimore (1936), and a 1936 lecture on the age, time, and cohort analysis of tuberculosis mortality. These 6 American Journal of Hygiene /American Journal of Epidemiology papers attest that Frost's personal evolution mirrored that of the emerging "early" epidemiology: The scope of epidemiology extended beyond the study of epidemics of acute infectious diseases, and rigorous comparative study designs and their associated quantitative methods came to light.

Snippets From the Past: The Evolution of Wade Hampton Frost's Epidemiology as Viewed From the American Journal of Hygiene/Epidemiology

PubMed Central

Morabia, Alfredo

2013-01-01

Wade Hampton Frost, who was a Professor of Epidemiology at Johns Hopkins University from 1919 to 1938, spurred the development of epidemiologic methods. His 6 publications in the American Journal of Hygiene, which later became the American Journal of Epidemiology, comprise a 1928 Cutter lecture on a theory of epidemics, a survey-based study of tonsillectomy and immunity to Corynebacterium diphtheriae (1931), 2 papers from a longitudinal study of the incidence of minor respiratory diseases (1933 and 1935), an attack rate ratio analysis of the decline of diphtheria in Baltimore (1936), and a 1936 lecture on the age, time, and cohort analysis of tuberculosis mortality. These 6 American Journal of Hygiene /American Journal of Epidemiology papers attest that Frost's personal evolution mirrored that of the emerging “early” epidemiology: The scope of epidemiology extended beyond the study of epidemics of acute infectious diseases, and rigorous comparative study designs and their associated quantitative methods came to light. PMID:24022889

Brain Tumor Epidemiology: Consensus from the Brain Tumor Epidemiology Consortium (BTEC)

PubMed Central

Bondy, Melissa L.; Scheurer, Michael E.; Malmer, Beatrice; Barnholtz-Sloan, Jill S.; Davis, Faith G.; Il’yasova, Dora; Kruchko, Carol; McCarthy, Bridget J.; Rajaraman, Preetha; Schwartzbaum, Judith A.; Sadetzki, Siegal; Schlehofer, Brigitte; Tihan, Tarik; Wiemels, Joseph L.; Wrensch, Margaret; Buffler, Patricia A.

2010-01-01

Epidemiologists in the Brain Tumor Epidemiology Consortium (BTEC) have prioritized areas for further research. Although many risk factors have been examined over the past several decades, there are few consistent findings possibly due to small sample sizes in individual studies and differences between studies in subjects, tumor types, and methods of classification. Individual studies have generally lacked sufficient sample size to examine interactions. A major priority based on available evidence and technologies includes expanding research in genetics and molecular epidemiology of brain tumors. BTEC has taken an active role in promoting understudied groups such as pediatric brain tumors, the etiology of rare glioma subtypes, such as oligodendroglioma, and meningioma, which not uncommon, has only recently been systematically registered in the US. There is also a pressing need to bring more researchers, especially junior investigators, to study brain tumor epidemiology. However, relatively poor funding for brain tumor research has made it difficult to encourage careers in this area. We review the group’s consensus on the current state of scientific findings and present a consensus on research priorities to identify the important areas the science should move to address. PMID:18798534

Anomaly Monitoring Method for Key Components of Satellite

PubMed Central

Fan, Linjun; Xiao, Weidong; Tang, Jun

2014-01-01

This paper presented a fault diagnosis method for key components of satellite, called Anomaly Monitoring Method (AMM), which is made up of state estimation based on Multivariate State Estimation Techniques (MSET) and anomaly detection based on Sequential Probability Ratio Test (SPRT). On the basis of analysis failure of lithium-ion batteries (LIBs), we divided the failure of LIBs into internal failure, external failure, and thermal runaway and selected electrolyte resistance (R e) and the charge transfer resistance (R ct) as the key parameters of state estimation. Then, through the actual in-orbit telemetry data of the key parameters of LIBs, we obtained the actual residual value (R X) and healthy residual value (R L) of LIBs based on the state estimation of MSET, and then, through the residual values (R X and R L) of LIBs, we detected the anomaly states based on the anomaly detection of SPRT. Lastly, we conducted an example of AMM for LIBs, and, according to the results of AMM, we validated the feasibility and effectiveness of AMM by comparing it with the results of threshold detective method (TDM). PMID:24587703

The Training of Epidemiologists and Diversity in Epidemiology: Findings from the 2006 Congress of Epidemiology Survey

PubMed Central

Carter-Pokras, Olivia D.; Spirtas, Robert; Bethune, Lisa; Mays, Vickie; Freeman, Vincent L.; Cozier, Yvette C.

2013-01-01

Purpose In the past decade, we have witnessed increasing numbers of individuals entering the field of epidemiology. With the increase also has come a diversity of training and paths by which individuals entered the field. The purpose of this survey was characterization of the epidemiology workforce, its job diversity, and continuing education needs. Methods The Minority Affairs and Membership committees of the American College of Epidemiology (ACE) prepared and administered a workforce survey to identify racial/ethnic diversity, demographic background, workplace type, credentials, income, subspecialties, and continuing education needs of epidemiologists. The survey was self-administered to attendees of the Second North American Congress of Epidemiology in June 2006. Results A sample of 397 respondents of the 1348 registered for the Congress was captured (29.5% response). Epidemiologists who participated were from 36 states and 18 countries; 54.6% were trained at the doctoral level; 19.1% earned $120,001 or more a year. A wide range of epidemiology subspecialties and continuing education needs were identified. Conclusions This preliminary snapshot of epidemiologists indicates a wide range of training mechanisms, workplace sites, and subspecialties. Results indicate a need for examination of the core graduate training needs of epidemiologist as well as responding to desired professional development needs through the provision of continuing educations efforts. PMID:19344867

Contesting lifestyle risk and gendering coronary candidacy: lay epidemiology of heart disease in Finland in the 1970s.

PubMed

Jauho, Mikko

2017-09-01

This study addresses two issues currently under critical discussion in the epidemiology of cardiovascular diseases (CVD), the relative neglect of women and the individualised nature of key risk factors. It focuses on the North Karelia project (NKP), a community programme aimed at coronary heart disease (CHD) prevention in a predominantly rural Finnish region in the early 1970s, that is, during a period when the epidemiological understanding of CVD still was relatively new and actively promoted. Adopting the notions of lay epidemiology and coronary candidacy, culturally mediated explanatory models lay people use to assess who is likely to develop heart disease and why, the study shows that locals targeted by the project critically engaged with both of these bias. Based on the rich materials resulting from project activities the study shows, first, how many locals subsumed the individualised and lifestyle-based approach to CHD prevention promoted by NKP under a more general framework emphasising the health effects of ongoing structural changes in the area, and second, how women constructed themselves as viable coronary candidates. The case supports the position in the current discussions on lay expertise that wants to integrate lay experiences more firmly into epidemiological studies and public health. © 2017 Foundation for the Sociology of Health & Illness.

Status of epidemiology in the WHO South-East Asia region: burden of disease, determinants of health and epidemiological research, workforce and training capacity

PubMed Central

Dhillon, Preet K; Jeemon, Panniyammakal; Arora, Narendra K; Mathur, Prashant; Maskey, Mahesh; Sukirna, Ratna Djuwita; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj

2012-01-01

Background The South-East Asia region (SEAR) accounts for one-quarter of the world's population, 40% of the global poor and ∼30% of the global disease burden, with a disproportionately large share of tuberculosis (35%), injuries (30%), maternal (33%) and <5-year-old mortality (30%). In this article, we describe the disease burden and status of epidemiological research and capacity in the SEAR to understand, analyse and develop capacity in response to the diverse burdens of diseases in the region. Methods Data on morbidity, mortality, risk factors, social determinants, research capacity, health education, workforce and systems in the SEAR were obtained using global data on burden of disease, peer-reviewed journals, World Health Organization (WHO) technical and advisory reports, and where available, validated country reports and key informants from the region. Results SEAR countries are afflicted with a triple burden of disease—infectious diseases, non-communicable diseases and injuries. Of the seven WHO regions, SEAR countries account for the highest proportion of global mortality (26%) and due to relatively younger ages at death, the second highest percentage of total years of life lost (30%). The SEAR exceeds the global average annual mortality rate for all three broad cause groupings—communicable, maternal, perinatal and nutritional conditions (334 vs 230 per 100 000); non-communicable diseases (676 vs 573 per 100 000); and injuries (101 vs 78 per 100 000). Poverty, education and other social determinants of health are strongly linked to inequities in health among SEAR countries and within socio-economic subgroups. India, Thailand and Bangladesh produce two-thirds of epidemiology publications in the region. Significant efforts to increase health workforce capacity, research and training have been undertaken in the region, yet considerable heterogeneity in resources and capacity remains. Conclusions Health systems, statistics and surveillance

Clinical and epidemiological characteristics of Korean patients with hepatitis C virus genotype 6

PubMed Central

Seong, Mun Hyuk; Kil, Ho; Kim, Jong Yeop; Lee, Sang Soo; Jang, Eun Sun; Kim, Jin-Wook; Kim, Young Seok; Bae, Si Hyun; Lee, Youn Jae; Lee, Han Chu; Yun, Haesun; Kang, Byung Hak; Kim, Kisang

2013-01-01

Background/Aims The distribution of hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotypes varies geographically. In Korea, genotypes 1 and 2 comprise more than 90% of HCV infections, while genotype 6 is very rare. This study compared the clinical and epidemiological characteristics of patients with genotype 6 HCV infection with those infected with HCV genotypes 1 and 2. Methods This was a prospective, multicenter HCV cohort study that enrolled 1,173 adult patients, of which 930 underwent HCV genotype analysis, and only 9 (1.0%) were found to be infected with genotype 6 HCV. The clinical and epidemiological parameters of the genotypes were compared. Results The patients with genotype 6 HCV had a mean age of 41.5 years, 77.8% were male, and they had no distinct laboratory features. A sustained virologic response (SVR) was observed in four (67%) of six patients who received antiviral therapy. Risk factors such as the presence of a tattoo (n=6, 66.7%), more than three sexual partners (n=3, 33.3%), and injection drug use (n=3, 33.3%) were more common among genotype 6 patients than among genotypes 1 or 2. Conclusions The epidemiology and treatment response of patients infected with genotype 6 HCV differed significantly from those with genotypes 1 or 2, warranting continuous monitoring. PMID:23593609

The measurement of poverty in psychiatric epidemiology in LMICs: critical review and recommendations.

PubMed

Cooper, Sara; Lund, Crick; Kakuma, Ritsuko

2012-09-01

Studies exploring the relationship between poverty and mental health in low and middle income countries (LMICs) have produced somewhat conflicting results. This has partly been attributed to poorly operationalized and oversimplified poverty measures. This paper has two aims: (1) to review how socio-economic outcomes in psychiatric epidemiology in LMICs are measured; (2) based on this review, to provide a set of generic recommendations for measuring poverty in psychiatric epidemiology in LMIC. This is relevant for mental health researchers, and for practitioners and policy makers who use mental health research findings. This review was part of a broader systematic review examining the association between poverty and mental illness. An analytic framework was developed to examine the definition and measurement of poverty in these studies. The majority of studies provided no definition for the concept of poverty being used, and very few measured poverty through standardized or validated methods. Many poverty indicators were broken down into extremely open-ended and vague categories, with no details on how the parameters were defined or derived, and no documentation of the time period and unit of analysis for which the poverty variable was measured. This review revealed that using poverty as an indicator in mental health research in LMIC is still in its infancy, with much room for improvement. The implications of poor measurement of poverty in psychiatric epidemiology are discussed. The recommendations provided will hopefully help researchers in psychiatric epidemiology use the concept of poverty in a much more critical, systematic and appropriate manner.

The application of epidemiology in aquatic animal health -opportunities and challenges.

PubMed

Peeler, Edmund J; Taylor, Nicholas G H

2011-08-11

Over recent years the growth in aquaculture, accompanied by the emergence of new and transboundary diseases, has stimulated epidemiological studies of aquatic animal diseases. Great potential exists for both observational and theoretical approaches to investigate the processes driving emergence but, to date, compared to terrestrial systems, relatively few studies exist in aquatic animals. Research using risk methods has assessed routes of introduction of aquatic animal pathogens to facilitate safe trade (e.g. import risk analyses) and support biosecurity. Epidemiological studies of risk factors for disease in aquaculture (most notably Atlantic salmon farming) have effectively supported control measures. Methods developed for terrestrial livestock diseases (e.g. risk-based surveillance) could improve the capacity of aquatic animal surveillance systems to detect disease incursions and emergence. The study of disease in wild populations presents many challenges and the judicious use of theoretical models offers some solutions. Models, parameterised from observational studies of host pathogen interactions, have been used to extrapolate estimates of impacts on the individual to the population level. These have proved effective in estimating the likely impact of parasite infections on wild salmonid populations in Switzerland and Canada (where the importance of farmed salmon as a reservoir of infection was investigated). A lack of data is often the key constraint in the application of new approaches to surveillance and modelling. The need for epidemiological approaches to protect aquatic animal health will inevitably increase in the face of the combined challenges of climate change, increasing anthropogenic pressures, limited water sources and the growth in aquaculture.

Lessons learnt from a three-year pilot field epidemiology training programme.

PubMed

Hoy, Damian; Durand, A Mark; Hancock, Thane; Cash, Haley L; Hardie, Kate; Paterson, Beverley; Paulino, Yvette; White, Paul; Merritt, Tony; Fitzgibbons, Dawn; Gopalani, Sameer Vali; Flint, James; Edwin A Merilles, Onofre; Kashiwabara, Mina; Biaukula, Viema; Lepers, Christelle; Souares, Yvan; Nilles, Eric; Batikawai, Anaseini; Huseynova, Sevil; Patel, Mahomed; Saketa, Salanieta T; Durrheim, David; Henderson, Alden; Roth, Adam

2017-01-01

The Pacific region has widely dispersed populations, limited financial and human resources and a high burden of disease. There is an urgent need to improve the availability, reliability and timeliness of useable health data. The purpose of this paper is to share lessons learnt from a three-year pilot field epidemiology training programme that was designed to respond to these Pacific health challenges. The pilot programme built on and further developed an existing field epidemiology training programme for Pacific health staff. The programme was delivered in country by epidemiologists working for Pacific Public Health Surveillance Network partners. The programme consisted of five courses: four one-week classroom-based courses and one field epidemiology project. Sessions were structured so that theoretical understanding was achieved through interaction and reinforced through practical hands-on group activities, case studies and other interactive practical learning methods. As of September 2016, 258 students had commenced the programme. Twenty-six course workshops were delivered and one cohort of students had completed the full five-course programme. The programme proved popular and gained a high level of student engagement. Face-to-face delivery, a low student-to-facilitator ratio, substantial group work and practical exercises were identified as key factors that contributed to the students developing skills and confidence. Close engagement of leaders and the need to quickly evaluate and adapt the curriculum were important lessons, and the collaboration between external partners was considered important for promoting a harmonized approach to health needs in the Pacific.

Lessons learnt from a three-year pilot field epidemiology training programme

PubMed Central

Durand, A Mark; Hancock, Thane; Cash, Haley L; Hardie, Kate; Paterson, Beverley; Paulino, Yvette; White, Paul; Merritt, Tony; Fitzgibbons, Dawn; Gopalani, Sameer Vali; Flint, James; Edwin A Merilles, Onofre; Kashiwabara, Mina; Biaukula, Viema; Lepers, Christelle; Souares, Yvan; Nilles, Eric; Batikawai, Anaseini; Huseynova, Sevil; Patel, Mahomed; Saketa, Salanieta T; Durrheim, David; Henderson, Alden; Roth, Adam

2017-01-01

Problem The Pacific region has widely dispersed populations, limited financial and human resources and a high burden of disease. There is an urgent need to improve the availability, reliability and timeliness of useable health data. Context The purpose of this paper is to share lessons learnt from a three-year pilot field epidemiology training programme that was designed to respond to these Pacific health challenges. The pilot programme built on and further developed an existing field epidemiology training programme for Pacific health staff. Action The programme was delivered in country by epidemiologists working for Pacific Public Health Surveillance Network partners. The programme consisted of five courses: four one-week classroom-based courses and one field epidemiology project. Sessions were structured so that theoretical understanding was achieved through interaction and reinforced through practical hands-on group activities, case studies and other interactive practical learning methods. Outcome As of September 2016, 258 students had commenced the programme. Twenty-six course workshops were delivered and one cohort of students had completed the full five-course programme. The programme proved popular and gained a high level of student engagement. Discussion Face-to-face delivery, a low student-to-facilitator ratio, substantial group work and practical exercises were identified as key factors that contributed to the students developing skills and confidence. Close engagement of leaders and the need to quickly evaluate and adapt the curriculum were important lessons, and the collaboration between external partners was considered important for promoting a harmonized approach to health needs in the Pacific. PMID:29051838

The science of epidemiology and the methods needed for public health assessments: a review of epidemiology textbooks

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Objectives Epidemiology is often described as ‘the science of public health’. Here we aim to assess the extent that epidemiological methods, as covered in contemporary standard textbooks, provide tools that can assess the relative magnitude of public health problems and can be used to help rank and assess public health priorities. Study Design Narrative literature review. Methods Thirty textbooks were grouped into three categories; pure, extended or applied epidemiology, were reviewed with attention to the ways the discipline is characterised and the nature of the analytical methods described. Results Pure texts tend to present a strict hierarchy of methods with those metrics deemed to best serve aetiological inquiry at the top. Extended and applied texts employ broader definitions of epidemiology but in most cases, the metrics described are also those used in aetiological inquiry and may not be optimal for capturing the consequences and social importance of injuries and disease onsets. Conclusions The primary scientific purpose of epidemiology, even amongst ‘applied’ textbooks, is aetiological inquiry. Authors do not readily extend to methods suitable for assessing public health problems and priorities. PMID:24507570

Deterministic analysis of extrinsic and intrinsic noise in an epidemiological model.

PubMed

Bayati, Basil S

2016-05-01

We couple a stochastic collocation method with an analytical expansion of the canonical epidemiological master equation to analyze the effects of both extrinsic and intrinsic noise. It is shown that depending on the distribution of the extrinsic noise, the master equation yields quantitatively different results compared to using the expectation of the distribution for the stochastic parameter. This difference is incident to the nonlinear terms in the master equation, and we show that the deviation away from the expectation of the extrinsic noise scales nonlinearly with the variance of the distribution. The method presented here converges linearly with respect to the number of particles in the system and exponentially with respect to the order of the polynomials used in the stochastic collocation calculation. This makes the method presented here more accurate than standard Monte Carlo methods, which suffer from slow, nonmonotonic convergence. In epidemiological terms, the results show that extrinsic fluctuations should be taken into account since they effect the speed of disease breakouts and that the gamma distribution should be used to model the basic reproductive number.

Epidemiology and risk factors for drug allergy

PubMed Central

Thong, Bernard Y-H; Tan, Teck-Choon

2011-01-01

The aim of this review was to describe the current evidence-based knowledge of the epidemiology, prevalence, incidence, risk factors and genetic associations of drug allergy. Articles published between 1966 and 2010 were identified in MEDLINE using the key words adult, adverse drug reaction reporting systems, age factors, anaphylactoid, anaphylaxis, anaesthetics, antibiotics, child, drug allergy, drug eruptions, ethnic groups, hypersensitivity, neuromuscular depolarizing agents, neuromuscular nondepolarizing agents, sex factors, Stevens Johnson syndrome and toxic epidermal necrolysis. Additional studies were identified from article reference lists. Relevant, peer-reviewed original research articles, case series and reviews were considered for review. Current epidemiological studies on adverse drug reactions (ADRs) have used different definitions for ADR-related terminology, often do not differentiate immunologically and non-immunologically mediated drug hypersensitivity, study different study populations (different ethnicities, inpatients or outpatients, adults or children), utilize different methodologies (spontaneous vs. non-spontaneous reporting, cohort vs. case-control studies), different methods of assessing drug imputability and different methods of data analyses. Potentially life-threatening severe cutaneous adverse reactions (SCAR) are associated with a high risk of morbidity and mortality. HLA associations for SCAR associated with allopurinol, carbamazepine and abacavir have been reported with the potential for clinical use in screening prior to prescription. Identification of risk factors for drug allergy and appropriate genetic screening of at-risk ethnic groups may improve the outcomes of drug-specific SCAR. Research and collaboration are necessary for the generation of clinically-relevant, translational pharmacoepidemiological and pharmacogenomic knowledge, and success of health outcomes research and policies on drug allergies. PMID:21480948

Novel secret key generation techniques using memristor devices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abunahla, Heba; Shehada, Dina; Yeun, Chan Yeob; Mohammad, Baker; Jaoude, Maguy Abi

2016-02-01

This paper proposes novel secret key generation techniques using memristor devices. The approach depends on using the initial profile of a memristor as a master key. In addition, session keys are generated using the master key and other specified parameters. In contrast to existing memristor-based security approaches, the proposed development is cost effective and power efficient since the operation can be achieved with a single device rather than a crossbar structure. An algorithm is suggested and demonstrated using physics based Matlab model. It is shown that the generated keys can have dynamic size which provides perfect security. Moreover, the proposed encryption and decryption technique using the memristor based generated keys outperforms Triple Data Encryption Standard (3DES) and Advanced Encryption Standard (AES) in terms of processing time. This paper is enriched by providing characterization results of a fabricated microscale Al/TiO2/Al memristor prototype in order to prove the concept of the proposed approach and study the impacts of process variations. The work proposed in this paper is a milestone towards System On Chip (SOC) memristor based security.

A proposal for assessing study quality: Biomonitoring, Environmental Epidemiology, and Short-lived Chemicals (BEES-C) instrument.

PubMed

LaKind, Judy S; Sobus, Jon R; Goodman, Michael; Barr, Dana Boyd; Fürst, Peter; Albertini, Richard J; Arbuckle, Tye E; Schoeters, Greet; Tan, Yu-Mei; Teeguarden, Justin; Tornero-Velez, Rogelio; Weisel, Clifford P

2014-12-01

The quality of exposure assessment is a major determinant of the overall quality of any environmental epidemiology study. The use of biomonitoring as a tool for assessing exposure to ubiquitous chemicals with short physiologic half-lives began relatively recently. These chemicals present several challenges, including their presence in analytical laboratories and sampling equipment, difficulty in establishing temporal order in cross-sectional studies, short- and long-term variability in exposures and biomarker concentrations, and a paucity of information on the number of measurements required for proper exposure classification. To date, the scientific community has not developed a set of systematic guidelines for designing, implementing and interpreting studies of short-lived chemicals that use biomonitoring as the exposure metric or for evaluating the quality of this type of research for WOE assessments or for peer review of grants or publications. We describe key issues that affect epidemiology studies using biomonitoring data on short-lived chemicals and propose a systematic instrument--the Biomonitoring, Environmental Epidemiology, and Short-lived Chemicals (BEES-C) instrument--for evaluating the quality of research proposals and studies that incorporate biomonitoring data on short-lived chemicals. Quality criteria for three areas considered fundamental to the evaluation of epidemiology studies that include biological measurements of short-lived chemicals are described: 1) biomarker selection and measurement, 2) study design and execution, and 3) general epidemiological study design considerations. We recognize that the development of an evaluative tool such as BEES-C is neither simple nor non-controversial. We hope and anticipate that the instrument will initiate further discussion/debate on this topic. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

A proposal for assessing study quality: Biomonitoring, Environmental Epidemiology, and Short-lived Chemicals (BEES-C) instrument

PubMed Central

LaKind, Judy S.; Sobus, Jon R.; Goodman, Michael; Barr, Dana Boyd; Fürst, Peter; Albertini, Richard J.; Arbuckle, Tye E.; Schoeters, Greet; Tan, Yu-Mei; Teeguarden, Justin; Tornero-Velez, Rogelio; Weisel, Clifford P.

2015-01-01

The quality of exposure assessment is a major determinant of the overall quality of any environmental epidemiology study. The use of biomonitoring as a tool for assessing exposure to ubiquitous chemicals with short physiologic half-lives began relatively recently. These chemicals present several challenges, including their presence in analytical laboratories and sampling equipment, difficulty in establishing temporal order in cross-sectional studies, short- and long-term variability in exposures and biomarker concentrations, and a paucity of information on the number of measurements required for proper exposure classification. To date, the scientific community has not developed a set of systematic guidelines for designing, implementing and interpreting studies of short-lived chemicals that use biomonitoring as the exposure metric or for evaluating the quality of this type of research for WOE assessments or for peer review of grants or publications. We describe key issues that affect epidemiology studies using biomonitoring data on short-lived chemicals and propose a systematic instrument – the Biomonitoring, Environmental Epidemiology, and Short-lived Chemicals (BEES-C) instrument – for evaluating the quality of research proposals and studies that incorporate biomonitoring data on short-lived chemicals. Quality criteria for three areas considered fundamental to the evaluation of epidemiology studies that include biological measurements of short-lived chemicals are described: 1) biomarker selection and measurement, 2) study design and execution, and 3) general epidemiological study design considerations. We recognize that the development of an evaluative tool such as BEES-C is neither simple nor non-controversial. We hope and anticipate that the instrument will initiate further discussion/debate on this topic. PMID:25137624

Salmonella epidemiology: A whirlwind of change.

PubMed

Besser, John M

2018-05-01

The field of infectious disease epidemiology for Salmonella and other enteric pathogens is undergoing some of the most profound changes since the time of Kauffman and White. Rapid advances in "big data" technologies such as genomics and metagenomics are making it possible to monitor and control salmonellosis in new and exciting ways. Epidemiological methods are becoming increasingly robust through the routine use of standardized hypothesis-generating questionnaires, iterative open-ended interviewing, informational trace-backs and new modeling techniques for describing the attribution of disease to food sources. In addition, Salmonella epidemiology is facing important challenges and new opportunities due to the rapid adoption of culture independent diagnostic test panels by clinical laboratories. Where is this unprecedented wave of change taking us? This chapter will examine emerging trends in Salmonella epidemiology, and take a peek into the not-so-distant future. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Radiation epidemiology: Past and present

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boice, J.D. Jr.

1997-03-01

Major advancements in radiation epidemiology have occurred during the last several years in studies of atomic bomb survivors, patients given medical radiation, and radiation workers, including underground miners. Risks associated with the Chernobyl accident, indoor radon and childhood exposure to I-131 have yet to be elucidated. Situations in the former Soviet Union around Chelyabinsk, a nuclear installation in the southern Urals, and in the Altai, which received radioactive fallout from weapons testing at Semipalatinsk, Kazakhstan, have the potential to provide information on the effects of chronic radiation exposure. Since Roentgen`s discovery of x-rays just 100 years ago, a tremendous amountmore » of knowledge has been accumulated about human health effects following irradiation. The 1994 UNSCEAR report contains the latest compilation and synthesis of radiation epidemiology. This overview will cover epidemiology from a radiation perspective. The different types of study methodologies will be described, followed by a kaleidoscope coverage of past and present studies; ending with some remaining questions in radiation epidemiology. This should set the stage for future chapters, and stimulate thinking about implications of the new data on radiation cancer risks.« less

[Occupational epidemiology: some methodological considerations].

PubMed

Alvear-Galindo, María Guadalupe; del Pilar Paz-Román, María

2006-01-01

During the last decade, occupational epidemiology has gained a great importance, not only because of the increase of pollutants and their noxiousness, but also because it has gone from the descriptive to the analytic level. The purpose of this work is to present what has been reported on epidemiological studies, different ways of characterizing and measuring occupational exposure, by emphasizing slants of exposure and selection measurement. In the reviewed studies, an interest in improving the exposure evaluation has been shown. The mainly reported measurement slants are the ways of measuring and classifying the exposure. The main designs were transversal with the use of matrixes to improve the evaluation of exposure. Conditions of hygiene and security were considered in order to control the quality of the information. This information was analyzed with different criteria. Some of the elements that hinder the research on occupational epidemiology are a mixed exposure, small populations, lack of exposure data, low levels of exposure and long periods of illness latency. Some breakthroughs in the strategies of epidemiological analysis and some other areas of knowledge have made possible a better understanding of work and health conditions of workers.

Community Engagement in Epidemiological Research

PubMed Central

Sapienza, Jessica N.; Corbie-Smith, Giselle; Keim, Sarah; Fleischman, Alan R.

2007-01-01

Objectives Engaging communities has become a critical aspect of planning and implementing health research. The role community engagement should play in epidemiological and observational research remains unclear since much of this research is not directly generated by community concerns and is not interventional in nature. The National Children's Study (NCS), an observational longitudinal study of 100,000 children and their families, provides a model to help guide the development of community engagement strategies in epidemiologic research. Methodology This manuscript describes community engagement activities of the NCS during the planning phases of the study. Results There are many challenges of community engagement in epidemiologic research particularly before the actual research sites are determined. After communities of interest are designated many further issues must be resolved, including: defining the specific community, determining which residents or institutions represent the identified community, and developing trust and rapport through respectful engagement. Conclusions Community engagement is critical to the long-term success of any longitudinal epidemiologic study. A partnership with the community should be formed to ensure mutual respect and the establishment of an enduring relationship. Genuine community engagement offers the hope of enhancing recruitment, retention, and participant satisfaction. PMID:17512886

Strong and Flexible: Developing a Three-Tiered Curriculum for the Regional Central America Field Epidemiology Training Program

PubMed Central

Traicoff, Denise A.; Suarez-Rangel, Gloria; Espinosa-Wilkins, Yescenia; Lopez, Augusto; Diaz, Anaite; Caceres, Victor

2017-01-01

Field Epidemiology Training Programs (FETPs) are recognized worldwide as an effective means to strengthen countries’ capacity in epidemiology, surveillance, and outbreak response. FETPs are field-based, with minimum classroom time and maximum time in the field, providing public health services while participants achieve competency. The Central America FETP (CAFETP) uses a three-level pyramid model: basic, intermediate, and advanced. In 2006, a multidisciplinary team used a methodical process based on adult learning practices to construct a competency-based curriculum for the CAFETP. The curriculum was designed based on the tasks related to disease surveillance and field epidemiology that public health officers would conduct at multiple levels in the system. The team used a design process that engaged subject matter experts and considered the unique perspective of each country. The designers worked backwards from the competencies to define field activities, evaluation methods, and classroom components. The 2006 pyramid curriculum has been accredited for a master’s of science in field epidemiology by the Universidad del Valle de Guatemala and has been adapted by programs around the world. The team found the time and effort spent to familiarize subject matter experts with key adult learning principles was worthwhile because it provided a common framework to approach curriculum design. Early results of the redesigned curriculum indicate that the CAFETP supports consistent quality while allowing for specific country needs. PMID:28702503

Parameter screening: the use of a dummy parameter to identify non-influential parameters in a global sensitivity analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khorashadi Zadeh, Farkhondeh; Nossent, Jiri; van Griensven, Ann; Bauwens, Willy

2017-04-01

' method. A formal statistical test validates these parameter screening results. Based on the dummy parameter screening, 11 model parameters are identified as influential. Therefore, it can be denoted that the "dummy parameter approach" can facilitate the parameter screening process and provide guidance for GSA users to define a screening-threshold, with only limited additional resources. Key words: Parameter screening, Global sensitivity analysis, Dummy parameter, Variance-based method, Moment-independent method

Epidemiology in Germany-general development and personal experience.

PubMed

Wichmann, Heinz-Erich

2017-08-01

Did you ever hear about epidemiology in Germany? Starting from an epidemiological desert the discipline has grown remarkably, especially during the last 10-15 years: research institutes have been established, research funding has improved, multiple curriculae in Epidemiology and Public Health are offered. This increase has been quite steep, and now the epidemiological infrastructure is much better. Several medium-sized and even big population cohorts are ongoing, and the number and quality of publications from German epidemiologists has reached a respectable level. My own career in epidemiology started in the field of environmental health. After German reunification I concentrated for many years on environmental problems in East Germany and observed the health benefits after improvement of the situation. Later, I concentrated on population-based cohorts in newborns (GINI/LISA) and adults (KORA, German National Cohort), and on biobanking. This Essay describes the development in Germany after worldwar 2, illustrated by examples of research results and build-up of epidemiological infractructures worth mentioning.

Phylogenetically resolving epidemiologic linkage

PubMed Central

Romero-Severson, Ethan O.; Bulla, Ingo; Leitner, Thomas

2016-01-01

Although the use of phylogenetic trees in epidemiological investigations has become commonplace, their epidemiological interpretation has not been systematically evaluated. Here, we use an HIV-1 within-host coalescent model to probabilistically evaluate transmission histories of two epidemiologically linked hosts. Previous critique of phylogenetic reconstruction has claimed that direction of transmission is difficult to infer, and that the existence of unsampled intermediary links or common sources can never be excluded. The phylogenetic relationship between the HIV populations of epidemiologically linked hosts can be classified into six types of trees, based on cladistic relationships and whether the reconstruction is consistent with the true transmission history or not. We show that the direction of transmission and whether unsampled intermediary links or common sources existed make very different predictions about expected phylogenetic relationships: (i) Direction of transmission can often be established when paraphyly exists, (ii) intermediary links can be excluded when multiple lineages were transmitted, and (iii) when the sampled individuals’ HIV populations both are monophyletic a common source was likely the origin. Inconsistent results, suggesting the wrong transmission direction, were generally rare. In addition, the expected tree topology also depends on the number of transmitted lineages, the sample size, the time of the sample relative to transmission, and how fast the diversity increases after infection. Typically, 20 or more sequences per subject give robust results. We confirm our theoretical evaluations with analyses of real transmission histories and discuss how our findings should aid in interpreting phylogenetic results. PMID:26903617

Research Methods in Healthcare Epidemiology and Antimicrobial Stewardship – Quasi-Experimental Designs

PubMed Central

Schweizer, Marin L.; Braun, Barbara I.; Milstone, Aaron M.

2016-01-01

Quasi-experimental studies evaluate the association between an intervention and an outcome using experiments in which the intervention is not randomly assigned. Quasi-experimental studies are often used to evaluate rapid responses to outbreaks or other patient safety problems requiring prompt non-randomized interventions. Quasi-experimental studies can be categorized into three major types: interrupted time series designs, designs with control groups, and designs without control groups. This methods paper highlights key considerations for quasi-experimental studies in healthcare epidemiology and antimicrobial stewardship including study design and analytic approaches to avoid selection bias and other common pitfalls of quasi-experimental studies. PMID:27267457

Strategic planning futurists need to be capitation-specific and epidemiological.

PubMed

Kurtenbach, J; Warmoth, T

1995-09-01

Strategic planning has always been a proposition of envisioning an organization's future state, then working backward, quarter by quarter, year by year, to plot a course of action. The surer the vision, the surer the course. In our burgeoning capitated environment, the successful provider will clarify a singular vision: to manage health care for a defined population. The key will be to understand the changing needs of covered lives and to prepare the organization to serve those needs. Gone are the days when mere responsiveness to market needs and preferences could secure a hospital's competitive advantage. Nimble, surefooted, practically clairvoyant--the emerging health care leader will listen to reliable epidemiologic information and custom-design its future. Timing is everything. Depending only your market's readiness for capitation, epidemiologic research and planning techniques may not prove critical to your organization for five to seven years. Good thing, too, because a few years may be just the head start many hospitals and health care systems need. Now is the time to lay the groundwork, to cultivate new planning techniques that will work under capitation, and to jettison any outdated modes of strategic thinking. Assemble all the talent and knowledge you need, then give your best minds ample room to do their work.

Pertussis (whooping cough) epidemiology in Waikato, New Zealand: 2000-2009.

PubMed

Wall, Richard; Bell, Anita; Theobald, Jason

2011-04-15

To describe the epidemiology of pertussis in the Waikato region of New Zealand between 2000 and 2009, and to identify any differences in case characteristics between epidemic and non-epidemic periods. Waikato pertussis notification data for the period 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2009 was analysed to identify any trends in the rates and distribution of key variables. Characteristics of case notifications were compared between an identified epidemic and non-epidemic period. Pertussis notification rates in the Waikato region were higher than national rates but followed a similar yearly pattern. Epidemics were identified in the years 2000 and 2004. The age distribution of pertussis cases changed over the decade with an increasing percentage in older age groups. Notification rates were higher in Europeans than Maori and in the least deprived NZDep group compared to the most deprived. In contrast, hospitalisation rates were higher in Maori than Europeans and in the most deprived NZDep groups. No clear differences in case characteristics were identified between an epidemic and non-epidemic period. The epidemiology of pertussis in Waikato is similar to that reported elsewhere in New Zealand. Further studies are required to clearly identify whether there are differences in case characteristics between epidemic and non-epidemic periods.

Research Methods in Healthcare Epidemiology and Antimicrobial Stewardship-Quasi-Experimental Designs.

PubMed

Schweizer, Marin L; Braun, Barbara I; Milstone, Aaron M

2016-10-01

Quasi-experimental studies evaluate the association between an intervention and an outcome using experiments in which the intervention is not randomly assigned. Quasi-experimental studies are often used to evaluate rapid responses to outbreaks or other patient safety problems requiring prompt, nonrandomized interventions. Quasi-experimental studies can be categorized into 3 major types: interrupted time-series designs, designs with control groups, and designs without control groups. This methods paper highlights key considerations for quasi-experimental studies in healthcare epidemiology and antimicrobial stewardship, including study design and analytic approaches to avoid selection bias and other common pitfalls of quasi-experimental studies. Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol 2016;1-6.

Middle Term Achievements of Project 5322: Retrieval Of Key Eco-Hydrological Parameters From Remote Sensing In The Watershed Allied Telemetry Experimental Research (Water)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xin; Menenti, Massimo

2010-10-01

The general objective of project 5322 in the Dragon 2 programme is to quantitatively retrieve some key eco- hydrological parameters by using remote sensed data, especially from ESA, Chinese, and the Third Party Mission (TPM). To achieve this goal, a comprehensive observation experiment, Watershed Allied Telemetry Experimental Research (WATER) was carried out. WARER is a simultaneously airborne, satellite-borne, and ground-based remote sensing experiment took place in the Heihe River Basin, a typical inland river basin in the northwest of China. This paper introduces the background and implementation of WATER. Data have been obtained so far are described in details. After a period of data analysis for two years, numerous results have also been achieved. This paper presents some early results of WATER as well.

Causality in cancer epidemiology.

PubMed

Lagiou, Pagona; Adami, Hans-Olov; Trichopoulos, Dimitrios

2005-01-01

In this review, issues of causality in epidemiologic research with emphasis on the aetiology of human cancer are considered. Principles of assessing causation in epidemiological studies of cancer are distinguished into those concerning an individual study, several studies and a particular person. Strengths and weaknesses of various approaches of documenting carcinogenicity in humans are examined and lists of major established causes of human cancer are presented. The review concludes with estimates of mortality from cancer around the world that can be attributed to specific factors under the light of the current scientific knowledge.

Childhood Brain Tumor Epidemiology: A Brain Tumor Epidemiology Consortium Review

PubMed Central

Johnson, Kimberly J.; Cullen, Jennifer; Barnholtz-Sloan, Jill S.; Ostrom, Quinn T.; Langer, Chelsea E.; Turner, Michelle C.; McKean-Cowdin, Roberta; Fisher, James L.; Lupo, Philip J.; Partap, Sonia; Schwartzbaum, Judith A.; Scheurer, Michael E.

2014-01-01

Childhood brain tumors are the most common pediatric solid tumor and include several histological subtypes. Although progress has been made in improving survival rates for some subtypes, understanding of risk factors for childhood brain tumors remains limited to a few genetic syndromes and ionizing radiation to the head and neck. In this report, we review descriptive and analytical epidemiology childhood brain tumor studies from the past decade and highlight priority areas for future epidemiology investigations and methodological work that is needed to advance our understanding of childhood brain tumor causes. Specifically, we summarize the results of a review of studies published since 2004 that have analyzed incidence and survival in different international regions and that have examined potential genetic, immune system, developmental and birth characteristics, and environmental risk factors. PMID:25192704

The Checkered History of American Psychiatric Epidemiology

PubMed Central

Horwitz, Allan V; Grob, Gerald N

2011-01-01

Context American psychiatry has been fascinated with statistics ever since the specialty was created in the early nineteenth century. Initially, psychiatrists hoped that statistics would reveal the benefits of institutional care. Nevertheless, their fascination with statistics was far removed from the growing importance of epidemiology generally. The impetus to create an epidemiology of mental disorders came from the emerging social sciences, whose members were concerned with developing a scientific understanding of individual and social behavior and applying it to a series of pressing social problems. Beginning in the 1920s, the interest of psychiatric epidemiologists shifted to the ways that social environments contributed to the development of mental disorders. This emphasis dramatically changed after 1980 when the policy focus of psychiatric epidemiology became the early identification and prevention of mental illness in individuals. Methods This article reviews the major developments in psychiatric epidemiology over the past century and a half. Findings The lack of an adequate classification system for mental illness has precluded the field of psychiatric epidemiology from providing causal understandings that could contribute to more adequate policies to remediate psychiatric disorders. Because of this gap, the policy influence of psychiatric epidemiology has stemmed more from institutional and ideological concerns than from knowledge about the causes of mental disorders. Conclusion Most of the problems that have bedeviled psychiatric epidemiology since its inception remain unresolved. In particular, until epidemiologists develop adequate methods to measure mental illnesses in community populations, the policy contributions of this field will not be fully realized. PMID:22188350

Microcomputers and the future of epidemiology.

PubMed Central

Dean, A G

1994-01-01

The Workshop on Microcomputers and the Future of Epidemiology was held March 8-9, 1993, at the Turner Conference Center, Atlanta, GA, with 130 public health professionals participating. The purpose of the workshop was to define microcomputer needs in epidemiology and to propose future initiatives. Thirteen groups representing public health disciplines defined their needs for better and more useful data, development of computer technology appropriate to epidemiology, user support and human infrastructure development, and global communication and planning. Initiatives proposed were demonstration of health surveillance systems, new software and hardware, computer-based training, projects to establish or improve data bases and community access to data bases, improved international communication, conferences on microcomputer use in particular disciplines, a suggestion to encourage competition in the production of public-domain software, and longrange global planning for epidemiologic computing and data management. Other interested groups are urged to study, modify, and implement those ideas. PMID:7910692

About the Epidemiology and Genomics Research Program

Cancer.gov

Epidemiology is the scientific study of the causes and distribution of disease in populations. NCI-funded epidemiology research is conducted through research at institutions in the United States and internationally.

Epidemiology of the Ebola Virus: Facts and Hypotheses.

PubMed

Portela Câmara F

1998-12-01

Marburg and Ebola viruses are emerging pathogens recognized since 1967, and in 1976, when they were first identified. These viruses are the only members of the Filoviridae family. They cause severe, frequently fatal, hemorrhagic fever. Each genus includes some serotypes with the distinctive characteristics to cause high mortality rate during outbreaks. The Ebola-Zaire subtype is the most lethal variant. The epidemiology of human pathogenic filovirus is reviewed in this paper considering the most relevant facts. Primary human cases arise probably through close contact with infected primates. This point may be the key to preventing the introduction of these viruses in human populations. Once introduced in humans, the infection may spread through close contact with infected individuals or their body fluids, particularly in hospital environments. A main feature of filovirus outbreaks is the occurrence of cycles of secondary infection.

Advances in spatial epidemiology and geographic information systems.

PubMed

Kirby, Russell S; Delmelle, Eric; Eberth, Jan M

2017-01-01

The field of spatial epidemiology has evolved rapidly in the past 2 decades. This study serves as a brief introduction to spatial epidemiology and the use of geographic information systems in applied research in epidemiology. We highlight technical developments and highlight opportunities to apply spatial analytic methods in epidemiologic research, focusing on methodologies involving geocoding, distance estimation, residential mobility, record linkage and data integration, spatial and spatio-temporal clustering, small area estimation, and Bayesian applications to disease mapping. The articles included in this issue incorporate many of these methods into their study designs and analytical frameworks. It is our hope that these studies will spur further development and utilization of spatial analysis and geographic information systems in epidemiologic research. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The globalization of epidemiology: introductory remarks.

PubMed

Pearce, Neil

2004-10-01

We are all living in the era of globalization, and like it or not, it is going to change the way we practice epidemiology, the kinds of questions we ask, and the methods we use to answer them. Increasingly, pubic health problems are being shifted from rich countries to poor countries and from rich to poor populations within Western countries. There is increasing interest and concern about the situation in non-Western populations on the part of Western epidemiologists, with regards to collaborative research, skills transfer, and 'volunteerism' to enable the 'benefits' of Western approaches to epidemiology to be shared by the non-Western world. However, most existing collaborations benefit Western epidemiologists rather than the countries in which the research is conducted. Even when research in non-Western populations is conducted as a genuine collaboration, it can too often 'export failure' from the West. On the other hand, non-Western epidemiologists are increasingly developing new and innovative approaches to health research that are more appropriate to the global public health issues they are addressing. These include recognition of the importance of context and the importance of diversity and local knowledge, and a problem-based approach to addressing the major public health problems using appropriate technology. These debates formed the background for a plenary session on 'International Epidemiology and International Health' at the recent International Epidemiological Association (IEA) meeting in Montreal, and the papers from this session are presented here. The development of a truly global epidemiology can not only better address the public health problems in non-Western populations, but can shed light on the current limitations of epidemiology in addressing the major public health problems in the West.

Epidemiology of psychogenic nonepileptic seizures.

PubMed

Asadi-Pooya, Ali A; Sperling, Michael R

2015-05-01

We critically review the existing literature about the epidemiology (i.e., diagnosis, occurrence, age, gender, comorbidity with epilepsy, associated factors, prognosis, mortality, and cost) of psychogenic nonepileptic seizures (PNES) and provide suggestions for future research. Psychogenic nonepileptic seizures are commonly diagnosed at epilepsy centers. The diagnosis of PNES relies on a multidisciplinary evaluation and is usually based on different combinations of data. Recording a seizure, while under video-EEG monitoring, is the most reliable diagnostic test. However, not all patients present with seizures while under video-EEG monitoring. Furthermore, not all epileptic seizures produce visible changes in the scalp EEG. The incidence of PNES was estimated to be 1.4-4.9/100,000/year in three previous studies, and the prevalence was calculated to be between 2 to 33 per 100,000 in one study, making it a significant neuropsychiatric condition. However, there remains a scarcity of data about the epidemiology of PNES, and extant studies that assessed the epidemiological characteristics of PNES have significant limitations. For example, inconsistencies with regard to the age of patients studied and lack of standardization of the diagnostic criteria are some of the significant limitations among studies. In conclusion, PNES merit further epidemiological and pathophysiological investigation. A more precise definition and clear guidance on standards for the diagnosis might influence the direction of future research. Well-designed prospective population-based studies to clarify the epidemiology of PNES in various parts of the world, including an evaluation of the predisposing, precipitating, and perpetuating factors in cross-cultural comparisons is required. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Structural and Practical Identifiability Analysis of Zika Epidemiological Models.

PubMed

Tuncer, Necibe; Marctheva, Maia; LaBarre, Brian; Payoute, Sabrina

2018-06-13

The Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic has caused an ongoing threat to global health security and spurred new investigations of the virus. Use of epidemiological models for arbovirus diseases can be a powerful tool to assist in prevention and control of the emerging disease. In this article, we introduce six models of ZIKV, beginning with a general vector-borne model and gradually including different transmission routes of ZIKV. These epidemiological models use various combinations of disease transmission (vector and direct) and infectious classes (asymptomatic and pregnant), with addition to loss of immunity being included. The disease-induced death rate is omitted from the models. We test the structural and practical identifiability of the models to find whether unknown model parameters can uniquely be determined. The models were fit to obtain time-series data of cumulative incidences and pregnant infections from the Florida Department of Health Daily Zika Update Reports. The average relative estimation errors (AREs) were computed from the Monte Carlo simulations to further analyze the identifiability of the models. We show that direct transmission rates are not practically identifiable; however, fixed recovery rates improve identifiability overall. We found ARE is low for each model (only slightly higher for those that account for a pregnant class) and help to confirm a reproduction number greater than one at the start of the Florida epidemic. Basic reproduction number, [Formula: see text], is an epidemiologically important threshold value which gives the number of secondary cases generated by one infected individual in a totally susceptible population in duration of infectiousness. Elasticity of the reproduction numbers suggests that the mosquito-to-human ratio, mosquito life span and biting rate have the greatest potential for reducing the reproduction number of Zika, and therefore, corresponding control measures need to be focused on.

Phylogenetically resolving epidemiologic linkage

DOE PAGES

Romero-Severson, Ethan O.; Bulla, Ingo; Leitner, Thomas

2016-02-22

The use of phylogenetic trees in epidemiological investigations has become commonplace, but their epidemiological interpretation has not been systematically evaluated. Here, we use an HIV-1 within-host coalescent model to probabilistically evaluate transmission histories of two epidemiologically linked hosts. Previous critique of phylogenetic reconstruction has claimed that direction of transmission is difficult to infer, and that the existence of unsampled intermediary links or common sources can never be excluded. The phylogenetic relationship between the HIV populations of epidemiologically linked hosts can be classified into six types of trees, based on cladistic relationships and whether the reconstruction is consistent with the truemore » transmission history or not. We show that the direction of transmission and whether unsampled intermediary links or common sources existed make very different predictions about expected phylogenetic relationships: (i) Direction of transmission can often be established when paraphyly exists, (ii) intermediary links can be excluded when multiple lineages were transmitted, and (iii) when the sampled individuals’ HIV populations both are monophyletic a common source was likely the origin. Inconsistent results, suggesting the wrong transmission direction, were generally rare. In addition, the expected tree topology also depends on the number of transmitted lineages, the sample size, the time of the sample relative to transmission, and how fast the diversity increases after infection. Typically, 20 or more sequences per subject give robust results. Moreover, we confirm our theoretical evaluations with analyses of real transmission histories and discuss how our findings should aid in interpreting phylogenetic results.« less

Regression Discontinuity Designs in Epidemiology

PubMed Central

Moscoe, Ellen; Mutevedzi, Portia; Newell, Marie-Louise; Bärnighausen, Till

2014-01-01

When patients receive an intervention based on whether they score below or above some threshold value on a continuously measured random variable, the intervention will be randomly assigned for patients close to the threshold. The regression discontinuity design exploits this fact to estimate causal treatment effects. In spite of its recent proliferation in economics, the regression discontinuity design has not been widely adopted in epidemiology. We describe regression discontinuity, its implementation, and the assumptions required for causal inference. We show that regression discontinuity is generalizable to the survival and nonlinear models that are mainstays of epidemiologic analysis. We then present an application of regression discontinuity to the much-debated epidemiologic question of when to start HIV patients on antiretroviral therapy. Using data from a large South African cohort (2007–2011), we estimate the causal effect of early versus deferred treatment eligibility on mortality. Patients whose first CD4 count was just below the 200 cells/μL CD4 count threshold had a 35% lower hazard of death (hazard ratio = 0.65 [95% confidence interval = 0.45–0.94]) than patients presenting with CD4 counts just above the threshold. We close by discussing the strengths and limitations of regression discontinuity designs for epidemiology. PMID:25061922

Epidemiology of hepatitis E virus in Iran

PubMed Central

Taherkhani, Reza; Farshadpour, Fatemeh

2016-01-01

Iran is known as an endemic country for hepatitis E virus (HEV) infection, while there are variations in the epidemiology of HEV infection throughout the country. The available epidemiological studies in different regions of Iran show HEV seroprevalence of 1.1%-14.2% among general population, 4.5% -14.3% among blood donors, 6.1%-22.8% among injecting drug users, 6.3%-28.3% among hemodialysis patients, 1.6%-11.3% among patients infected with other hepatitis viruses, 27.5% among patients with chronic liver disease, 30.8% among kidney transplant recipient patients, and 10%-16.4% among human immunodeficiency virus-infected patients. These variations reflect differences in the status of public health and hygiene, risk factors, and routes of transmission in different regions and groups. Therefore, it is necessary to review the epidemiology of HEV infection to determine the most prevalent risk factors and routes of transmission, and to evaluate the effectiveness of preventive strategies employed in the public health services of the country. Moreover, the other epidemiological aspects of HEV, including the genotypic pattern, extra hepatic manifestations, and incidence of chronic infection need to be investigated among Iranian population to expand the current knowledge on the epidemiology of HEV and to clarify the real burden of HEV infection. Therefore, this review was performed to provide a general overview regarding the epidemiology of HEV in Iran. PMID:27298557

Problems encountered with the use of simulation in an attempt to enhance interpretation of a secondary data source in epidemiologic mental health research

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background The longitudinal epidemiology of major depressive episodes (MDE) is poorly characterized in most countries. Some potentially relevant data sources may be underutilized because they are not conducive to estimating the most salient epidemiologic parameters. An available data source in Canada provides estimates that are potentially valuable, but that are difficult to apply in clinical or public health practice. For example, weeks depressed in the past year is assessed in this data source whereas episode duration would be of more interest. The goal of this project was to derive, using simulation, more readily interpretable parameter values from the available data. Findings The data source was a Canadian longitudinal study called the National Population Health Survey (NPHS). A simulation model representing the course of depressive episodes was used to reshape estimates deriving from binary and ordinal logistic models (fit to the NPHS data) into equations more capable of informing clinical and public health decisions. Discrete event simulation was used for this purpose. Whereas the intention was to clarify a complex epidemiology, the models themselves needed to become excessively complex in order to provide an accurate description of the data. Conclusions Simulation methods are useful in circumstances where a representation of a real-world system has practical value. In this particular scenario, the usefulness of simulation was limited both by problems with the data source and by inherent complexity of the underlying epidemiology. PMID:20796271

Terminology, concepts, and models in genetic epidemiology.

PubMed

Teare, M Dawn; Koref, Mauro F Santibàñez

2011-01-01

Genetic epidemiology brings together approaches and techniques developed in mathematical genetics and statistics, medical genetics, quantitative genetics, and epidemiology. In the 1980s, the focus was on the mapping and identification of genes where defects had large effects at the individual level. More recently, statistical and experimental advances have made possible to identify and characterise genes associated with small effects at the individual level. In this chapter, we provide a brief outline of the models, concepts, and terminology used in genetic epidemiology.

Molecular Infectious Disease Epidemiology: Survival Analysis and Algorithms Linking Phylogenies to Transmission Trees

PubMed Central

Kenah, Eben; Britton, Tom; Halloran, M. Elizabeth; Longini, Ira M.

2016-01-01

Recent work has attempted to use whole-genome sequence data from pathogens to reconstruct the transmission trees linking infectors and infectees in outbreaks. However, transmission trees from one outbreak do not generalize to future outbreaks. Reconstruction of transmission trees is most useful to public health if it leads to generalizable scientific insights about disease transmission. In a survival analysis framework, estimation of transmission parameters is based on sums or averages over the possible transmission trees. A phylogeny can increase the precision of these estimates by providing partial information about who infected whom. The leaves of the phylogeny represent sampled pathogens, which have known hosts. The interior nodes represent common ancestors of sampled pathogens, which have unknown hosts. Starting from assumptions about disease biology and epidemiologic study design, we prove that there is a one-to-one correspondence between the possible assignments of interior node hosts and the transmission trees simultaneously consistent with the phylogeny and the epidemiologic data on person, place, and time. We develop algorithms to enumerate these transmission trees and show these can be used to calculate likelihoods that incorporate both epidemiologic data and a phylogeny. A simulation study confirms that this leads to more efficient estimates of hazard ratios for infectiousness and baseline hazards of infectious contact, and we use these methods to analyze data from a foot-and-mouth disease virus outbreak in the United Kingdom in 2001. These results demonstrate the importance of data on individuals who escape infection, which is often overlooked. The combination of survival analysis and algorithms linking phylogenies to transmission trees is a rigorous but flexible statistical foundation for molecular infectious disease epidemiology. PMID:27070316

An investigative framework to facilitate epidemiological thinking during herd problem-solving.

PubMed

More, Simon J; Doherty, Michael L; O'Grady, Luke

2017-01-01

Veterinary clinicians and students commonly use diagnostic approaches appropriate for individual cases when conducting herd problem-solving. However, these approaches can be problematic, in part because they make limited use of epidemiological principles and methods, which has clear application during the investigation of herd problems. In this paper, we provide an overview of diagnostic approaches that are used when investigating individual animal cases, and the challenges faced when these approaches are directly translated from the individual to the herd. Further, we propose an investigative framework to facilitate epidemiological thinking during herd problem-solving. A number of different approaches are used when making a diagnosis on an individual animal, including pattern recognition, hypothetico-deductive reasoning, and the key abnormality method. Methods commonly applied to individuals are often adapted for herd problem-solving: 'comparison with best practice' being a herd-level adaptation of pattern recognition, and 'differential diagnoses' a herd-level adaptation of hypothetico-deductive reasoning. These approaches can be effective, however, challenges can arise. Herds are complex; a collection of individual cows, but also additional layers relating to environment, management, feeding etc. It is unrealistic to expect seamless translation of diagnostic approaches from the individual to the herd. Comparison with best practice is time-consuming and prioritisation of actions can be problematic, whereas differential diagnoses can lead to 'pathogen hunting', particularly in complex cases. Epidemiology is the science of understanding disease in populations. The focus is on the population, underpinned by principles and utilising methods that seek to allow us to generate solid conclusions from apparently uncontrolled situations. In this paper, we argue for the inclusion of epidemiological principles and methods as an additional tool for herd problem-solving, and

Epidemiology of Ciguatera in Florida.

PubMed

Radke, Elizabeth G; Reich, Andrew; Morris, John Glenn

2015-08-01

Ciguatera is the most commonly reported marine food-borne illness worldwide. Because there is a biological plausibility that ciguatera may be impacted by long-term climate variability and Florida is on the northern border of the geographic distribution of ciguatera, it is important to update our understanding of its epidemiology in Florida. We performed an analysis of 291 reports in Florida from 2000 to 2011 and an e-mail survey of 5,352 recreational fishers to estimate incidence and underreporting and identify high risk demographic groups, fish types, and catch locations. Incidence was 5.6 per 100,000 adjusted for underreporting. Hispanics had the highest incidence rate (relative risk [RR] = 3.4) and were more likely to eat barracuda than non-Hispanics. The most common catch locations for ciguatera-causing fish were the Bahamas and Florida Keys. Cases caused by fish from northern Florida were infrequent. These results indicate that ciguatera incidence is higher than estimated from public health reports alone. There is little evidence that incidence or geographic range has increased because of increased seawater temperatures since earlier studies. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

What matters most: quantifying an epidemiology of consequence

PubMed Central

Keyes, Katherine; Galea, Sandro

2015-01-01

Risk factor epidemiology has contributed to substantial public health success. In this essay, we argue, however, that the focus on risk factor epidemiology has led epidemiology to ever increasing focus on the estimation of precise causal effects of exposures on an outcome at the expense of engagement with the broader causal architecture that produces population health. To conduct an epidemiology of consequence, a systematic effort is needed to engage our science in a critical reflection both about how well and under what conditions or assumptions we can assess causal effects and also on what will truly matter most for changing population health. Such an approach changes the priorities and values of the discipline and requires reorientation of how we structure the questions we ask and the methods we use, as well as how we teach epidemiology to our emerging scholars. PMID:25749559

A method of determining where to target surveillance efforts in heterogeneous epidemiological systems

PubMed Central

van den Bosch, Frank; Gottwald, Timothy R.; Alonso Chavez, Vasthi

2017-01-01

The spread of pathogens into new environments poses a considerable threat to human, animal, and plant health, and by extension, human and animal wellbeing, ecosystem function, and agricultural productivity, worldwide. Early detection through effective surveillance is a key strategy to reduce the risk of their establishment. Whilst it is well established that statistical and economic considerations are of vital importance when planning surveillance efforts, it is also important to consider epidemiological characteristics of the pathogen in question—including heterogeneities within the epidemiological system itself. One of the most pronounced realisations of this heterogeneity is seen in the case of vector-borne pathogens, which spread between ‘hosts’ and ‘vectors’—with each group possessing distinct epidemiological characteristics. As a result, an important question when planning surveillance for emerging vector-borne pathogens is where to place sampling resources in order to detect the pathogen as early as possible. We answer this question by developing a statistical function which describes the probability distributions of the prevalences of infection at first detection in both hosts and vectors. We also show how this method can be adapted in order to maximise the probability of early detection of an emerging pathogen within imposed sample size and/or cost constraints, and demonstrate its application using two simple models of vector-borne citrus pathogens. Under the assumption of a linear cost function, we find that sampling costs are generally minimised when either hosts or vectors, but not both, are sampled. PMID:28846676

[Identification and sampling of people with migration background for epidemiological studies in Germany].

PubMed

Reiss, K; Makarova, N; Spallek, J; Zeeb, H; Razum, O

2013-06-01

In 2009, 19.6% of the population of Germany either had migrated themselves or were the offspring of people with migration experience. Migrants differ from the autochthonous German population in terms of health status, health awareness and health behaviour. To further investigate the health situation of migrants in Germany, epidemiological studies are needed. Such studies can employ existing databases which provide detailed information on migration status. Otherwise, onomastic or toponomastic procedures can be applied to identify people with migration background. If migrants have to be recruited into an epidemiological study, this can be done register-based (e. g., data from registration offices or telephone lists), based on residential location (random-route or random-walk procedure), via snowball sampling (e. g., through key persons) or via settings (e. g., school entry examination). An oversampling of people with migration background is not sufficient to avoid systematic bias in the sample due to non-participation. Additional measures have to be taken to increase access and raise participation rates. Personal contacting, multilingual instruments, multilingual interviewers and extensive public relations increase access and willingness to participate. Empirical evidence on 'successful' recruitment strategies for studies with migrants is still lacking in epidemiology and health sciences in Germany. The choice of the recruitment strategy as well as the measures to raise accessibility and willingness to participate depend on the available resources, the research question and the specific migrant target group. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Epidemiology of Enterocytozoon bieneusi Infection in Humans.

PubMed

Matos, Olga; Lobo, Maria Luisa; Xiao, Lihua

2012-01-01

A review was conducted to examine published works that focus on the complex epidemiology of Enterocytozoon bieneusi infection in humans. Studies on the prevalence of these emerging microsporidian pathogens in humans, in developed and developing countries, the different clinical spectra of E. bieneusi intestinal infection in children, in different settings, and the risk factors associated with E. bieneusi infection have been reviewed. This paper also analyses the impact of the recent application of PCR-based molecular methods for species-specific identification and genotype differentiation has had in increasing the knowledge of the molecular epidemiology of E. bieneusi in humans. The advances in the epidemiology of E. bieneusi, in the last two decades, emphasize the importance of epidemiological control and prevention of E. bieneusi infections, from both the veterinary and human medical perspectives.

Epidemiology of periodontal diseases in Indian population since last decade

PubMed Central

Chandra, Anuja; Yadav, Om Prakash; Narula, Sugandha; Dutta, Angel

2016-01-01

Objective: India suffers lot of disparities in terms of oral health care and 95% of the Indian population suffers from periodontal disease. The aim of this review is to estimate the risk factors responsible for periodontal diseases as well as prevalence for the same in the last decade to make an attempt to develop a strategy to improve formulation of an effective oral health care policy in India. Materials and Methods: Keywords such as “prevalence of periodontal diseases,” “epidemiology,” “periodontitis in India,” and “oral hygiene status in India” were searched for appropriate studies to obtain a bibliographic database. The references of selected articles and relevant reviews were searched for any missed publications that included studies conducted in India estimating periodontal diseases with adequate sample size. Clinical parameters, sample size, and findings for each study were tabulated from 2006 to 2015 (till September 15, 2015) in chronological order to observe the prevalence as well as epidemiology of periodontal disease in India. Results: The projection of periodontal disease is disturbing. In addition, the majority of studies done have used the Community Periodontal Index of Treatment Needs (CPITN) as its epidemiological tool that can grossly underestimate the presence of deep pockets. Conclusion: Current knowledge has shown that periodontitis does not present a linear progression and is not age-dependent. Moreover, its distribution and severity are strongly influenced by host susceptibility and risk factors. A structured all-inclusive survey of all districts of the states is a prerequisite for the constitution of an apt and cogent health care policy in our country. PMID:27114945

Post-processing procedure for industrial quantum key distribution systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiktenko, Evgeny; Trushechkin, Anton; Kurochkin, Yury; Fedorov, Aleksey

2016-08-01

We present algorithmic solutions aimed on post-processing procedure for industrial quantum key distribution systems with hardware sifting. The main steps of the procedure are error correction, parameter estimation, and privacy amplification. Authentication of classical public communication channel is also considered.

Characterizing the next-generation matrix and basic reproduction number in ecological epidemiology.

PubMed

Roberts, M G; Heesterbeek, J A P

2013-03-01

We address the interaction of ecological processes, such as consumer-resource relationships and competition, and the epidemiology of infectious diseases spreading in ecosystems. Modelling such interactions seems essential to understand the dynamics of infectious agents in communities consisting of interacting host and non-host species. We show how the usual epidemiological next-generation matrix approach to characterize invasion into multi-host communities can be extended to calculate R₀, and how this relates to the ecological community matrix. We then present two simple examples to illustrate this approach. The first of these is a model of the rinderpest, wildebeest, grass interaction, where our inferred dynamics qualitatively matches the observed phenomena that occurred after the eradication of rinderpest from the Serengeti ecosystem in the 1980s. The second example is a prey-predator system, where both species are hosts of the same pathogen. It is shown that regions for the parameter values exist where the two host species are only able to coexist when the pathogen is present to mediate the ecological interaction.

Clinical Effects of Cigarette Smoking: Epidemiologic Impact and Review of Pharmacotherapy Options

PubMed Central

Onor, IfeanyiChukwu O.; Stirling, Daniel L.; Williams, Shandrika R.; Bediako, Daniel; Borghol, Amne; Harris, Martha B.; Darensburg, Tiernisha B.; Clay, Sharde D.; Okpechi, Samuel C.; Sarpong, Daniel F.

2017-01-01

Cigarette smoking—a crucial modifiable risk factor for organ system diseases and cancer—remains prevalent in the United States and globally. In this literature review, we aim to summarize the epidemiology of cigarette smoking and tobacco use in the United States, pharmacology of nicotine—the active constituent of tobacco, and health consequence of cigarette smoking. This article also reviews behavioral and pharmacologic interventions for cigarette smokers and provides cost estimates for approved pharmacologic interventions in the United States. A literature search was conducted on Google Scholar, EBSCOhost, ClinicalKey, and PubMed databases using the following headings in combination or separately: cigarette smoking, tobacco smoking, epidemiology in the United States, health consequences of cigarette smoking, pharmacologic therapy for cigarette smoking, and non-pharmacologic therapy for cigarette smoking. This review found that efficacious non-pharmacologic interventions and pharmacologic therapy are available for cessation of cigarette smoking. Given the availability of efficacious interventions for cigarette smoking cessation, concerted efforts should be made by healthcare providers and public health professionals to promote smoking cessation as a valuable approach for reducing non-smokers’ exposure to environmental tobacco smoke. PMID:28956852

Unravelling psychosis: psychosocial epidemiology, mechanism, and meaning

PubMed Central

BEBBINGTON, Paul

2015-01-01

Summary This paper reviews a revolution in our understanding of psychosis over the last 20 years. To a major extent, this has resulted from a process of cross-fertilization between psychosocial epidemiology and cognitive behavior therapy for psychosis (CBT-p). This encouraged complementary strategies for the acquisition and analysis of data. These include the use of a range of dependent variables related to psychosis, and the exploitation of data from cross-sectional and longitudinal epidemiological surveys, virtual reality experiments, experience sampling methodology, and treatment trials. The key element is to investigate social and psychological measures in relation to each other. This research has confirmed the role of the external social world in the development and persistence of psychotic disorder. In addition, several psychological drivers of psychotic experiences have been identified. There is now persuasive evidence that the influence of social factors in psychosis is significantly mediated by non-psychotic symptoms, particularly mood symptoms and other attributes of affect such as insomnia. Psychotic symptoms are also driven by reasoning biases such as jumping to conclusions and belief inflexibility, though little is known about social influences on such biases. It is now clear that there are many routes to psychosis and that it takes many forms. Treatment of all kinds should take account of this: the dependence of CBT-p on a detailed initial formulation in terms of psychological processes and social influences is an example of the required flexibility. Individual mediators are now being targeted in specific forms of CBT-p, with good effect. This in turn corroborates the hypothesized role of non-psychotic symptoms in mediation, and attests to the power of the approaches described. PMID:26120255

Epidemiology and risk factors for drug allergy.

PubMed

Thong, Bernard Y-H; Tan, Teck-Choon

2011-05-01

The aim of this review was to describe the current evidence-based knowledge of the epidemiology, prevalence, incidence, risk factors and genetic associations of drug allergy. Articles published between 1966 and 2010 were identified in MEDLINE using the key words adult, adverse drug reaction reporting systems, age factors, anaphylactoid, anaphylaxis, anaesthetics, antibiotics, child, drug allergy, drug eruptions, ethnic groups, hypersensitivity, neuromuscular depolarizing agents, neuromuscular nondepolarizing agents, sex factors, Stevens Johnson syndrome and toxic epidermal necrolysis. Additional studies were identified from article reference lists. Relevant, peer-reviewed original research articles, case series and reviews were considered for review. Current epidemiological studies on adverse drug reactions (ADRs) have used different definitions for ADR-related terminology, often do not differentiate immunologically and non-immunologically mediated drug hypersensitivity, study different study populations (different ethnicities, inpatients or outpatients, adults or children), utilize different methodologies (spontaneous vs. non-spontaneous reporting, cohort vs. case-control studies), different methods of assessing drug imputability and different methods of data analyses. Potentially life-threatening severe cutaneous adverse reactions (SCAR) are associated with a high risk of morbidity and mortality. HLA associations for SCAR associated with allopurinol, carbamazepine and abacavir have been reported with the potential for clinical use in screening prior to prescription. Identification of risk factors for drug allergy and appropriate genetic screening of at-risk ethnic groups may improve the outcomes of drug-specific SCAR. Research and collaboration are necessary for the generation of clinically-relevant, translational pharmacoepidemiological and pharmacogenomic knowledge, and success of health outcomes research and policies on drug allergies. © 2011 The Authors

Epidemiology of Lice

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Juranek, Dennis D.

1977-01-01

Research into the epidemiology of lice indicates that infestation is uncommon in blacks, more common in females than males, significantly higher in low income groups, and transmission is by way of articles of clothing. (JD)

Assessing Malaria Risks in Greater Mekong Subregion based on Environmental Parameters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kiang, Richard; Soika, Valerii; Adimi, Farida; Nigro, Joseph

2005-01-01

At 4,200 km, the Mekong River is the tenth longest river in the world. It directly and indirectly influences the lives of hundreds of millions of inhabitants in its basin. The riparian countries - Thailand, Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam, and a small part of China - form the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS). This geographical region has the misfortune of being the world's epicenter of falciparum malaria, which is the most severe form of malaria caused by Plasmodium falciparum. Depending on the country, approximately 50 to 90% of all malaria cases are due to this species. In the Malaria Modeling and Surveillance Project, we have been developing techniques to enhance public health s decision capability for malaria risk assessments and controls. The main objectives are: 1) identifying the potential breeding sites for major vector species; 2) implementing a malaria transmission model to identify the key factors that sustain or intensify malaria transmission; and 3) implementing a risk algorithm to predict the occurrence of malaria and its transmission intensity. The potential benefits are: 1) increased warning time for public health organizations to respond to malaria outbreaks; 2) optimized utilization of pesticide and chemoprophylaxis; 3) reduced likelihood of pesticide and drug resistance; and 4) reduced damage to environment. Environmental parameters important to malaria transmission include temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, and vegetation conditions. The NASA Earth science data sets that have been used for malaria surveillance and risk assessment include AVHRR Pathfinder, TRMM, MODIS, NSIPP, and SIESIP. Hindcastings based on these environmental parameters have shown good agreement to epidemiological records. Socioeconomic factors that may influence malaria transmissions will also be incorporated into the predictive models.

Measuring Sexual Behavior Stigma to Inform Effective HIV Prevention and Treatment Programs for Key Populations

PubMed Central

Hargreaves, James R; Sprague, Laurel; Stangl, Anne L; Baral, Stefan D

2017-01-01

Background The levels of coverage of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) treatment and prevention services needed to change the trajectory of the HIV epidemic among key populations, including gay men and other men who have sex with men (MSM) and sex workers, have consistently been shown to be limited by stigma. Objective The aim of this study was to propose an agenda for the goals and approaches of a sexual behavior stigma surveillance effort for key populations, with a focus on collecting surveillance data from 4 groups: (1) members of key population groups themselves (regardless of HIV status), (2) people living with HIV (PLHIV) who are also members of key populations, (3) members of nonkey populations, and (4) health workers. Methods We discuss strengths and weaknesses of measuring multiple different types of stigma including perceived, anticipated, experienced, perpetrated, internalized, and intersecting stigma as measured among key populations themselves, as well as attitudes or beliefs about key populations as measured among other groups. Results With the increasing recognition of the importance of stigma, consistent and validated stigma metrics for key populations are needed to monitor trends and guide immediate action. Evidence-based stigma interventions may ultimately be the key to overcoming the barriers to coverage and retention in life-saving antiretroviral-based HIV prevention and treatment programs for key populations. Conclusions Moving forward necessitates the integration of validated stigma scales in routine HIV surveillance efforts, as well as HIV epidemiologic and intervention studies focused on key populations, as a means of tracking progress toward a more efficient and impactful HIV response. PMID:28446420

Dynamically rich, yet parameter-sparse models for spatial epidemiology. Comment on "Coupled disease-behavior dynamics on complex networks: A review" by Z. Wang et al.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jusup, Marko; Iwami, Shingo; Podobnik, Boris; Stanley, H. Eugene

2015-12-01

Since the very inception of mathematical modeling in epidemiology, scientists exploited the simplicity ingrained in the assumption of a well-mixed population. For example, perhaps the earliest susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model developed by L. Reed and W.H. Frost in the 1920s [1], included the well-mixed assumption such that any two individuals in the population could meet each other. The problem was that, unlike many other simplifying assumptions used in epidemiological modeling whose validity holds in one situation or the other, well-mixed populations are almost non-existent in reality because the nature of human socio-economic interactions is, for the most part, highly heterogeneous (e.g. [2-6]).

What matters most: quantifying an epidemiology of consequence.

PubMed

Keyes, Katherine; Galea, Sandro

2015-05-01

Risk factor epidemiology has contributed to substantial public health success. In this essay, we argue, however, that the focus on risk factor epidemiology has led epidemiology to ever increasing focus on the estimation of precise causal effects of exposures on an outcome at the expense of engagement with the broader causal architecture that produces population health. To conduct an epidemiology of consequence, a systematic effort is needed to engage our science in a critical reflection both about how well and under what conditions or assumptions we can assess causal effects and also on what will truly matter most for changing population health. Such an approach changes the priorities and values of the discipline and requires reorientation of how we structure the questions we ask and the methods we use, as well as how we teach epidemiology to our emerging scholars. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cryptographic robustness of practical quantum cryptography: BB84 key distribution protocol

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Molotkov, S. N.

2008-07-15

In real fiber-optic quantum cryptography systems, the avalanche photodiodes are not perfect, the source of quantum states is not a single-photon one, and the communication channel is lossy. For these reasons, key distribution is impossible under certain conditions for the system parameters. A simple analysis is performed to find relations between the parameters of real cryptography systems and the length of the quantum channel that guarantee secure quantum key distribution when the eavesdropper's capabilities are limited only by fundamental laws of quantum mechanics while the devices employed by the legitimate users are based on current technologies. Critical values are determinedmore » for the rate of secure real-time key generation that can be reached under the current technology level. Calculations show that the upper bound on channel length can be as high as 300 km for imperfect photodetectors (avalanche photodiodes) with present-day quantum efficiency ({eta} {approx} 20%) and dark count probability (p{sub dark} {approx} 10{sup -7})« less

Cryptographic robustness of practical quantum cryptography: BB84 key distribution protocol

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molotkov, S. N.

2008-07-01

In real fiber-optic quantum cryptography systems, the avalanche photodiodes are not perfect, the source of quantum states is not a single-photon one, and the communication channel is lossy. For these reasons, key distribution is impossible under certain conditions for the system parameters. A simple analysis is performed to find relations between the parameters of real cryptography systems and the length of the quantum channel that guarantee secure quantum key distribution when the eavesdropper’s capabilities are limited only by fundamental laws of quantum mechanics while the devices employed by the legitimate users are based on current technologies. Critical values are determined for the rate of secure real-time key generation that can be reached under the current technology level. Calculations show that the upper bound on channel length can be as high as 300 km for imperfect photodetectors (avalanche photodiodes) with present-day quantum efficiency (η ≈ 20%) and dark count probability ( p dark ˜ 10-7).

Assessing health impacts in complex eco-epidemiological settings in the humid tropics: Modular baseline health surveys

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Winkler, Mirko S., E-mail: mirko.winkler@unibas.ch; University of Basel, P.O. Box, CH-4003 Basel; Divall, Mark J., E-mail: mdivall@shapeconsulting.org

2012-02-15

The quantitative assessment of health impacts has been identified as a crucial feature for realising the full potential of health impact assessment (HIA). In settings where demographic and health data are notoriously scarce, but there is a broad range of ascertainable ecological, environmental, epidemiological and socioeconomic information, a diverse toolkit of data collection strategies becomes relevant for the mainly small-area impacts of interest. We present a modular, cross-sectional baseline health survey study design, which has been developed for HIA of industrial development projects in the humid tropics. The modular nature of our toolkit allows our methodology to be readily adaptedmore » to the prevailing eco-epidemiological characteristics of a given project setting. Central to our design is a broad set of key performance indicators, covering a multiplicity of health outcomes and determinants at different levels and scales. We present experience and key findings from our modular baseline health survey methodology employed in 14 selected sentinel sites within an iron ore mining project in the Republic of Guinea. We argue that our methodology is a generic example of rapid evidence assembly in difficult-to-reach localities, where improvement of the predictive validity of the assessment and establishment of a benchmark for longitudinal monitoring of project impacts and mitigation efforts is needed.« less

Genotyping of Mycobacterium tuberculosis: application in epidemiologic studies

PubMed Central

Kato-Maeda, Midori; Metcalfe, John Z.; Flores, Laura

2014-01-01

Genotyping is used to track specific isolates of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in a community. It has been successfully used in epidemiologic research (termed ‘molecular epidemiology’) to study the transmission dynamics of TB. In this article, we review the genetic markers used in molecular epidemiologic studies including the use of whole-genome sequencing technology. We also review the public health application of molecular epidemiologic tools. PMID:21366420

RSA-Based Password-Authenticated Key Exchange, Revisited

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, Seonghan; Kobara, Kazukuni; Imai, Hideki

The RSA-based Password-Authenticated Key Exchange (PAKE) protocols have been proposed to realize both mutual authentication and generation of secure session keys where a client is sharing his/her password only with a server and the latter should generate its RSA public/private key pair (e, n), (d, n) every time due to the lack of PKI (Public-Key Infrastructures). One of the ways to avoid a special kind of off-line (so called e-residue) attacks in the RSA-based PAKE protocols is to deploy a challenge/response method by which a client verifies the relative primality of e and φ(n) interactively with a server. However, this kind of RSA-based PAKE protocols did not give any proof of the underlying challenge/response method and therefore could not specify the exact complexity of their protocols since there exists another security parameter, needed in the challenge/response method. In this paper, we first present an RSA-based PAKE (RSA-PAKE) protocol that can deploy two different challenge/response methods (denoted by Challenge/Response Method1 and Challenge/Response Method2). The main contributions of this work include: (1) Based on the number theory, we prove that the Challenge/Response Method1 and the Challenge/Response Method2 are secure against e-residue attacks for any odd prime e (2) With the security parameter for the on-line attacks, we show that the RSA-PAKE protocol is provably secure in the random oracle model where all of the off-line attacks are not more efficient than on-line dictionary attacks; and (3) By considering the Hamming weight of e and its complexity in the. RSA-PAKE protocol, we search for primes to be recommended for a practical use. We also compare the RSA-PAKE protocol with the previous ones mainly in terms of computation and communication complexities.

Quantum key distribution with an entangled light emitting diode

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dzurnak, B.; Stevenson, R. M.; Nilsson, J.; Dynes, J. F.; Yuan, Z. L.; Skiba-Szymanska, J.; Farrer, I.; Ritchie, D. A.; Shields, A. J.

2015-12-01

Measurements performed on entangled photon pairs shared between two parties can allow unique quantum cryptographic keys to be formed, creating secure links between users. An advantage of using such entangled photon links is that they can be adapted to propagate entanglement to end users of quantum networks with only untrusted nodes. However, demonstrations of quantum key distribution with entangled photons have so far relied on sources optically excited with lasers. Here, we realize a quantum cryptography system based on an electrically driven entangled-light-emitting diode. Measurement bases are passively chosen and we show formation of an error-free quantum key. Our measurements also simultaneously reveal Bell's parameter for the detected light, which exceeds the threshold for quantum entanglement.

Seasonal infectious disease epidemiology

PubMed Central

Grassly, Nicholas C; Fraser, Christophe

2006-01-01

Seasonal change in the incidence of infectious diseases is a common phenomenon in both temperate and tropical climates. However, the mechanisms responsible for seasonal disease incidence, and the epidemiological consequences of seasonality, are poorly understood with rare exception. Standard epidemiological theory and concepts such as the basic reproductive number R0 no longer apply, and the implications for interventions that themselves may be periodic, such as pulse vaccination, have not been formally examined. This paper examines the causes and consequences of seasonality, and in so doing derives several new results concerning vaccination strategy and the interpretation of disease outbreak data. It begins with a brief review of published scientific studies in support of different causes of seasonality in infectious diseases of humans, identifying four principal mechanisms and their association with different routes of transmission. It then describes the consequences of seasonality for R0, disease outbreaks, endemic dynamics and persistence. Finally, a mathematical analysis of routine and pulse vaccination programmes for seasonal infections is presented. The synthesis of seasonal infectious disease epidemiology attempted by this paper highlights the need for further empirical and theoretical work. PMID:16959647

Present and future free-space quantum key distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nordholt, Jane E.; Hughes, Richard J.; Morgan, George L.; Peterson, C. Glen; Wipf, Christopher C.

2002-04-01

Free-space quantum key distribution (QKD), more popularly know as quantum cryptography, uses single-photon free-space optical communications to distribute the secret keys required for secure communications. At Los Alamos National Laboratory we have demonstrated a fully automated system that is capable of operations at any time of day over a horizontal range of several kilometers. This has proven the technology is capable of operation from a spacecraft to the ground, opening up the possibility of QKD between any group of users anywhere on Earth. This system, the prototyping of a new system for use on a spacecraft, and the techniques required for world-wide quantum key distribution will be described. The operational parameters and performance of a system designed to operate between low earth orbit (LEO) and the ground will also be discussed.

Jumping on the Train of Personalized Medicine: A Primer for Non-Geneticist Clinicians: Part 2. Fundamental Concepts in Genetic Epidemiology.

PubMed

Li, Aihua; Meyre, David

2014-05-01

With the decrease in sequencing costs, personalized genome sequencing will eventually become common in medical practice. We therefore write this series of three reviews to help non-geneticist clinicians to jump into the fast-moving field of personalized medicine. In the first article of this series, we reviewed the fundamental concepts in molecular genetics. In this second article, we cover the key concepts and methods in genetic epidemiology including the classification of genetic disorders, study designs and their implementation, genetic marker selection, genotyping and sequencing technologies, gene identification strategies, data analyses and data interpretation. This review will help the reader critically appraise a genetic association study. In the next article, we will discuss the clinical applications of genetic epidemiology in the personalized medicine area.

Determination of the key parameters affecting historic communications satellite trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Namkoong, D.

1984-01-01

Data representing 13 series of commercial communications satellites procured between 1968 and 1982 were analyzed to determine the factors that have contributed to the general reduction over time of the per circuit cost of communications satellites. The model by which the data were analyzed was derived from a general telecommunications application and modified to be more directly applicable for communications satellites. In this model satellite mass, bandwidth-years, and technological change were the variable parameters. A linear, least squares, multiple regression routine was used to obtain the measure of significance of the model. Correlation was measured by coefficient of determination (R super 2) and t-statistic. The results showed that no correlation could be established with satellite mass. Bandwidth-year however, did show a significant correlation. Technological change in the bandwidth-year case was a significant factor in the model. This analysis and the conclusions derived are based on mature technologies, i.e., satellite designs that are evolutions of earlier designs rather than the first of a new generation. The findings, therefore, are appropriate to future satellites only if they are a continuation of design evolution.

Pertussis immunity and epidemiology: mode and duration of vaccine-induced immunity.

PubMed

Magpantay, F M G; Domenech DE Cellès, M; Rohani, P; King, A A

2016-06-01

The resurgence of pertussis in some countries that maintain high vaccination coverage has drawn attention to gaps in our understanding of the epidemiological effects of pertussis vaccines. In particular, major questions surround the nature, degree and durability of vaccine protection. To address these questions, we used mechanistic transmission models to examine regional time series incidence data from Italy in the period immediately following the introduction of acellular pertussis (aP) vaccine. Our results concur with recent animal-challenge experiments wherein infections in aP-vaccinated individuals proved as transmissible as those in naive individuals but much less symptomatic. On the other hand, the data provide evidence for vaccine-driven reduction in susceptibility, which we quantify via a synthetic measure of vaccine impact. As to the precise nature of vaccine failure, the data do not allow us to distinguish between leakiness and waning of vaccine immunity, or some combination of these. Across the range of well-supported models, the nature and duration of vaccine protection, the age profile of incidence and the range of projected epidemiological futures differ substantially, underscoring the importance of the remaining unknowns. We identify key data gaps: sources of data that can supply the information needed to eliminate these remaining uncertainties.

Pertussis immunity and epidemiology: mode and duration of vaccine-induced immunity

PubMed Central

MAGPANTAY, F. M. G.; DE CELLÉS, M. DOMENECH; ROHANI, P.; KING, A. A.

2016-01-01

SUMMARY The resurgence of pertussis in some countries that maintain high vaccination coverage has drawn attention to gaps in our understanding of the epidemiological effects of pertussis vaccines. In particular, major questions surround the nature, degree and durability of vaccine protection. To address these questions, we used mechanistic transmission models to examine regional time series incidence data from Italy in the period immediately following the introduction of acellular pertussis (aP) vaccine. Our results concur with recent animal-challenge experiments wherein infections in aP-vaccinated individuals proved as transmissible as those in naive individuals but much less symptomatic. On the other hand, the data provide evidence for vaccine-driven reduction in susceptibility, which we quantify via a synthetic measure of vaccine impact. As to the precise nature of vaccine failure, the data do not allow us to distinguish between leakiness and waning of vaccine immunity, or some combination of these. Across the range of well-supported models, the nature and duration of vaccine protection, the age profile of incidence and the range of projected epidemiological futures differ substantially, underscoring the importance of the remaining unknowns. We identify key data gaps: sources of data that can supply the information needed to eliminate these remaining uncertainties. PMID:26337864

[Epidemiologic and clinical characteristics of patients with hepatitis type C on the bases of selected parameters].

PubMed

Warunek, W; Librant-Suska, M; Krukowiecki, J; Zejc-Bajsarowicz, M; Janas-Skulina, U; Garlicki, A

1996-01-01

We present dates of epidemiological and clinical analysis of patients with chronic hepatitis C. 107 patients were hospitalized in our Chair and Department of Infectious Diseases CM UJ since 1991 till 1995. 41 cases were diagnosed as acute viral hepatitis C and 66 as chronic hepatitis C. In our material 59% cases were nosocomial infections. The certain risk in this group was the surgery (28% of patients). Next possibility of transmission HCV was hospitalization in nonoperative ward (17%). The patients receiving blood or blood products were the next significant risk group of HCV infection. Medical staff is still a certain risk group. About 1/3 of patients have no obvious route of infection. In 70% of patients with hepatitis have the acute phase of HCV infection without any symptoms. 79% cases of acute hepatitis C tends to chronic hepatitis, with high percent of active disease (64%) which can lead after years to cirrhosis or even to hepatocellular carcinoma.

Bronchiolitis caused by respiratory syncytial virus in an area of portugal: epidemiology, clinical features, and risk factors.

PubMed

Flores, P; Rebelo-de-Andrade, H; Gonçalves, P; Guiomar, R; Carvalho, C; Sousa, E N; Noronha, F T; Palminha, J M

2004-01-01

The aim of the present study was to analyse the clinical and epidemiological characteristics of bronchiolitis caused by respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in 225 children observed in a paediatric hospital in Lisbon, Portugal, and to determine the clinical, epidemiological, or laboratory parameters that correlate with greater severity of the disease. This prospective study included hospitalised and ambulatory children younger than 36 months of age with a diagnosis of bronchiolitis and was conducted during two consecutive RSV epidemiological seasons (November-March 2000/01 and 2001/02). The median age of the patients was 5 months, and the male-to-female ratio was 1.6:1. RSV was isolated in 60.9% of patients, predominantly in the hospitalised group. The subtype A:B ratio was 7.4:1 and was similar in both seasons. RSV-positive patients were younger, had more severe clinical forms of bronchiolitis, and fewer changes in leucocyte total and differential counts. Among infected patients, higher clinical severity scores occurred in association with first wheezing episodes, overcrowded households, attendance at day-care centres, or prematurity (<36 weeks). This first prospective study of RSV epidemiology in Portugal provides a foundation for appropriate surveillance programmes of RSV infection in this country. A multicentre study is desirable in order to delineate optimal prophylactic and therapeutic guidelines for RSV infection in Portugal.

An argument for renewed focus on epidemiology for public health

PubMed Central

Rogawski, Elizabeth T.; Gray, Christine L.; Poole, Charles

2016-01-01

Purpose While epidemiology has an indispensable role in serving public health, the relative emphasis of applications of epidemiology often tend toward individual-level medicine over public health in terms of resources and impact. Methods We make distinctions between public health and medical applications of epidemiology to raise awareness among epidemiologists, many of whom came to the field with public health in mind. We discuss reasons for the overemphasis on medical epidemiology and suggest ways to counteract these incentives. Results Public health epidemiology informs interventions that are applied to populations or that confer benefits beyond the individual, while medical epidemiology informs interventions that improve the health of treated individuals. Available resources, new biomedical technologies, and existing epidemiologic methods favor medical applications of epidemiology. Focus on public health impact and methods suited to answer public health questions can create better balance and promote population-level improvements in public health. Conclusions By deliberately reflecting on research motivations and long-term goals, we hope the distinctions presented here will facilitate critical discussion and a greater consciousness of our potential impact on both individual and population-level health. Renewed intentions towards public health can help epidemiologists navigate potential projects and ultimately contribute to an epidemiology of consequence. PMID:27659585

An argument for renewed focus on epidemiology for public health.

PubMed

Rogawski, Elizabeth T; Gray, Christine L; Poole, Charles

2016-10-01

Although epidemiology has an indispensable role in serving public health, the relative emphasis of applications of epidemiology often tend toward individual-level medicine over public health in terms of resources and impact. We make distinctions between public health and medical applications of epidemiology to raise awareness among epidemiologists, many of whom came to the field with public health in mind. We discuss reasons for the overemphasis on medical epidemiology and suggest ways to counteract these incentives. Public health epidemiology informs interventions that are applied to populations or that confer benefits beyond the individual, whereas medical epidemiology informs interventions that improve the health of treated individuals. Available resources, new biomedical technologies, and existing epidemiologic methods favor medical applications of epidemiology. Focus on public health impact and methods suited to answer public health questions can create better balance and promote population-level improvements in public health. By deliberately reflecting on research motivations and long-term goals, we hope the distinctions presented here will facilitate critical discussion and a greater consciousness of our potential impact on both individual and population-level health. Renewed intentions towards public health can help epidemiologists navigate potential projects and ultimately contribute to an epidemiology of consequence. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Key parameters for behaviour related to source separation of household organic waste: A case study in Hanoi, Vietnam.

PubMed

Kawai, Kosuke; Huong, Luong Thi Mai

2017-03-01

Proper management of food waste, a major component of municipal solid waste (MSW), is needed, especially in developing Asian countries where most MSW is disposed of in landfill sites without any pretreatment. Source separation can contribute to solving problems derived from the disposal of food waste. An organic waste source separation and collection programme has been operated in model areas in Hanoi, Vietnam, since 2007. This study proposed three key parameters (participation rate, proper separation rate and proper discharge rate) for behaviour related to source separation of household organic waste, and monitored the progress of the programme based on the physical composition of household waste sampled from 558 households in model programme areas of Hanoi. The results showed that 13.8% of 558 households separated organic waste, and 33.0% discharged mixed (unseparated) waste improperly. About 41.5% (by weight) of the waste collected as organic waste was contaminated by inorganic waste, and one-third of the waste disposed of as organic waste by separators was inorganic waste. We proposed six hypothetical future household behaviour scenarios to help local officials identify a final or midterm goal for the programme. We also suggested that the city government take further actions to increase the number of people participating in separating organic waste, improve the accuracy of separation and prevent non-separators from discharging mixed waste improperly.

Novel image encryption algorithm based on multiple-parameter discrete fractional random transform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Nanrun; Dong, Taiji; Wu, Jianhua

2010-08-01

A new method of digital image encryption is presented by utilizing a new multiple-parameter discrete fractional random transform. Image encryption and decryption are performed based on the index additivity and multiple parameters of the multiple-parameter fractional random transform. The plaintext and ciphertext are respectively in the spatial domain and in the fractional domain determined by the encryption keys. The proposed algorithm can resist statistic analyses effectively. The computer simulation results show that the proposed encryption algorithm is sensitive to the multiple keys, and that it has considerable robustness, noise immunity and security.

Epidemiologic natural history and clinical management of Human Papillomavirus (HPV) Disease: a critical and systematic review of the literature in the development of an HPV dynamic transmission model

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background Natural history models of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and disease have been used in a number of policy evaluations of technologies to prevent and screen for HPV disease (e.g., cervical cancer, anogenital warts), sometimes with wide variation in values for epidemiologic and clinical inputs. The objectives of this study are to: (1) Provide an updated critical and systematic review of the evidence base to support epidemiologic and clinical modeling of key HPV disease-related parameters in the context of an HPV multi-type disease transmission model which we have applied within a U.S. population context; (2) Identify areas where additional studies are particularly needed. Methods Consistent with our and other prior HPV natural history models, the literature review was confined to cervical disease and genital warts. Between October 2005 and January 2006, data were gathered from the published English language medical literature through a search of the PubMed database and references were examined from prior HPV natural history models and review papers. Study design and data quality from individual studies were compared and analyses meeting pre-defined criteria were selected. Results Published data meeting review eligibility criteria were most plentiful for natural history parameters relating to the progression and regression of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) without HPV typing, and data concerning the natural history of HPV disease due to specific HPV types were often lacking. Epidemiologic evidence to support age-dependency in the risk of progression and regression of HPV disease was found to be weak, and an alternative hypothesis concerning the time-dependence of transition rates is explored. No data were found on the duration of immunity following HPV infection. In the area of clinical management, data were observed to be lacking on the proportion of clinically manifest anogenital warts that are treated and the proportion of cervical cancer

Current issues in ALS epidemiology: Variation of ALS occurrence between populations and physical activity as a risk factor.

PubMed

Luna, J; Logroscino, G; Couratier, P; Marin, B

2017-05-01

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a rare neurodegenerative disease with a fatal outcome. This review aims to report key epidemiological features of ALS in relation to the hypothesis of variation between populations, to summarize environmental hypothesis and to highlight current issues that deserve much considerations. Epidemiological ALS studies have shown a variation of incidence, mortality and prevalence between geographical areas and different populations. These data could support the notion that genetic factors, especially populations' ancestries, along with environmental and lifestyle factors, play a significant role in the occurrence of the disease. To date, there is no strong evidence to confirm an association between a particular environmental factor and ALS. Physical activity (PA) has been extensively evaluated. Recent studies support with the best evidence level that PA in general population is not a risk factor for ALS. However, further research is needed to clarify the association of PA in some occupations and some athletic activities. Epidemiological research based on multicenter international collaboration is essential to provide new data on ALS especially in some regions of the world that are to date poorly represented in the ALS literature. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Landmarks in the history of cancer epidemiology.

PubMed

Greenwald, Peter; Dunn, Barbara K

2009-03-15

The application of epidemiology to cancer prevention is relatively new, although observations of the potential causes of cancer have been reported for more than 2,000 years. Cancer was generally considered incurable until the late 19th century. Only with a refined understanding of the nature of cancer and strategies for cancer treatment could a systematic approach to cancer prevention emerge. The 20th century saw the elucidation of clues to cancer causation from observed associations with population exposures to tobacco, diet, environmental chemicals, and other exogenous factors. With repeated confirmation of such associations, researchers entertained for the first time the possibility that cancer, like many of the infectious diseases of the time, might be prevented. By the mid-20th century, with antibiotics successfully addressing the majority of infectious diseases and high blood pressure treatment beginning to affect the prevalence of heart disease in a favorable direction, the focus of much of epidemiology shifted to cancer. The early emphasis was on exploring, in greater depth, the environmental, dietary, hormonal, and other exogenous exposures for their potential associations with increased cancer risk. The first major breakthrough in identifying a modifiable cancer risk factor was the documentation of an association between tobacco smoking and lung cancer. During the past four decades, epidemiologic studies have generated population data identifying risk factors for cancers at almost every body site, with many cancers having multiple risk factors. The development of technologies to identify biological molecules has facilitated the incorporation of these molecular manifestations of biological variation into epidemiologic studies, as markers of exposure as well as putative surrogate markers of cancer outcome. This technological trend has, during the past two decades, culminated in emphasis on the identification of genetic variants and their products as

Optical components damage parameters database system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tao, Yizheng; Li, Xinglan; Jin, Yuquan; Xie, Dongmei; Tang, Dingyong

2012-10-01

Optical component is the key to large-scale laser device developed by one of its load capacity is directly related to the device output capacity indicators, load capacity depends on many factors. Through the optical components will damage parameters database load capacity factors of various digital, information technology, for the load capacity of optical components to provide a scientific basis for data support; use of business processes and model-driven approach, the establishment of component damage parameter information model and database systems, system application results that meet the injury test optical components business processes and data management requirements of damage parameters, component parameters of flexible, configurable system is simple, easy to use, improve the efficiency of the optical component damage test.

Histological, epidemiological and clinical aspects of centroblastic-centrocytic lymphomas subdivided according to the "working formulation".

PubMed Central

Molenaar, W. M.; Bartels, H.; Koudstaal, J.

1984-01-01

A group of 424 lymphomas diagnosed as centroblastic-centrocytic lymphomas at the Lymph Node Registry in Kiel was subdivided into small (S), mixed (M) and large (L) cell groups, according to the "working formulation" proposed in a National Cancer Institute sponsored study. Histological epidemiological and clinical parameters were studied. It was found that in group S a follicular growth pattern was most frequent and in group L a follicular and diffuse growth, while group M took an intermediate position. No statistically significant differences were found in respect to epidemiological factors or overall survival. However, in the first 6 years after the diagnosis the survival in group S was better than in group M, but thereafter a reversal occurred. Group L appeared to have the worst survival throughout. Growth pattern and sclerosis were found to be of limited influence on survival within the cytological groups. PMID:6367799

Practical quantum key distribution protocol without monitoring signal disturbance.

PubMed

Sasaki, Toshihiko; Yamamoto, Yoshihisa; Koashi, Masato

2014-05-22

Quantum cryptography exploits the fundamental laws of quantum mechanics to provide a secure way to exchange private information. Such an exchange requires a common random bit sequence, called a key, to be shared secretly between the sender and the receiver. The basic idea behind quantum key distribution (QKD) has widely been understood as the property that any attempt to distinguish encoded quantum states causes a disturbance in the signal. As a result, implementation of a QKD protocol involves an estimation of the experimental parameters influenced by the eavesdropper's intervention, which is achieved by randomly sampling the signal. If the estimation of many parameters with high precision is required, the portion of the signal that is sacrificed increases, thus decreasing the efficiency of the protocol. Here we propose a QKD protocol based on an entirely different principle. The sender encodes a bit sequence onto non-orthogonal quantum states and the receiver randomly dictates how a single bit should be calculated from the sequence. The eavesdropper, who is unable to learn the whole of the sequence, cannot guess the bit value correctly. An achievable rate of secure key distribution is calculated by considering complementary choices between quantum measurements of two conjugate observables. We found that a practical implementation using a laser pulse train achieves a key rate comparable to a decoy-state QKD protocol, an often-used technique for lasers. It also has a better tolerance of bit errors and of finite-sized-key effects. We anticipate that this finding will give new insight into how the probabilistic nature of quantum mechanics can be related to secure communication, and will facilitate the simple and efficient use of conventional lasers for QKD.

Surveillance and Control of Malaria Transmission in Thailand using Remotely Sensed Meteorological and Environmental Parameters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kiang, Richard K.; Adimi, Farida; Soika, Valerii; Nigro, Joseph

2007-01-01

These slides address the use of remote sensing in a public health application. Specifically, this discussion focuses on the of remote sensing to detect larval habitats to predict current and future endemicity and identify key factors that sustain or promote transmission of malaria in a targeted geographic area (Thailand). In the Malaria Modeling and Surveillance Project, which is part of the NASA Applied Sciences Public Health Applications Program, we have been developing techniques to enhance public health's decision capability for malaria risk assessments and controls. The main objectives are: 1) identification of the potential breeding sites for major vector species; 2) implementation of a risk algorithm to predict the occurrence of malaria and its transmission intensity; 3) implementation of a dynamic transmission model to identify the key factors that sustain or intensify malaria transmission. The potential benefits are: 1) increased warning time for public health organizations to respond to malaria outbreaks; 2) optimized utilization of pesticide and chemoprophylaxis; 3) reduced likelihood of pesticide and drug resistance; and 4) reduced damage to environment. !> Environmental parameters important to malaria transmission include temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, and vegetation conditions. The NASA Earth science data sets that have been used for malaria surveillance and risk assessment include AVHRR Pathfinder, TRMM, MODIS, NSIPP, and SIESIP. Textural-contextual classifications are used to identify small larval habitats. Neural network methods are used to model malaria cases as a function of the remotely sensed parameters. Hindcastings based on these environmental parameters have shown good agreement to epidemiological records. Discrete event simulations are used for modeling the detailed interactions among the vector life cycle, sporogonic cycle and human infection cycle, under the explicit influences of selected extrinsic and intrinsic factors

Epidemiologic research using probabilistic outcome definitions.

PubMed

Cai, Bing; Hennessy, Sean; Lo Re, Vincent; Small, Dylan S

2015-01-01

Epidemiologic studies using electronic healthcare data often define the presence or absence of binary clinical outcomes by using algorithms with imperfect specificity, sensitivity, and positive predictive value. This results in misclassification and bias in study results. We describe and evaluate a new method called probabilistic outcome definition (POD) that uses logistic regression to estimate the probability of a clinical outcome using multiple potential algorithms and then uses multiple imputation to make valid inferences about the risk ratio or other epidemiologic parameters of interest. We conducted a simulation to evaluate the performance of the POD method with two variables that can predict the true outcome and compared the POD method with the conventional method. The simulation results showed that when the true risk ratio is equal to 1.0 (null), the conventional method based on a binary outcome provides unbiased estimates. However, when the risk ratio is not equal to 1.0, the traditional method, either using one predictive variable or both predictive variables to define the outcome, is biased when the positive predictive value is <100%, and the bias is very severe when the sensitivity or positive predictive value is poor (less than 0.75 in our simulation). In contrast, the POD method provides unbiased estimates of the risk ratio both when this measure of effect is equal to 1.0 and not equal to 1.0. Even when the sensitivity and positive predictive value are low, the POD method continues to provide unbiased estimates of the risk ratio. The POD method provides an improved way to define outcomes in database research. This method has a major advantage over the conventional method in that it provided unbiased estimates of risk ratios and it is easy to use. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Key parameters governing the densification of cubic-Li7La3Zr2O12 Li+ conductors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yi, Eongyu; Wang, Weimin; Kieffer, John; Laine, Richard M.

2017-06-01

Cubic-Li7La3Zr2O12 (LLZO) is regarded as one of the most promising solid electrolytes for the construction of inherently safe, next generation all-solid-state Li batteries. Unfortunately, sintering these materials to full density with controlled grain sizes, mechanical and electrochemical properties relies on energy and equipment intensive processes. In this work, we elucidate key parameters dictating LLZO densification by tracing the compositional and structural changes during processing calcined and ball-milled Al3+ doped LLZO powders. We find that the powders undergo ion (Li+/H+) exchange during room temperature processing, such that on heating, the protonated LLZO lattice collapses and crystallizes to its constituent oxides, leading to reaction driven densification at < 1000 °C, prior to sintering of LLZO grains at higher temperatures. It is shown that small particle sizes and protonation cannot be decoupled, and actually aid densification. We conclude that using fully decomposed nanoparticle mixtures, as obtained by liquid-feed flame spray pyrolysis, provides an ideal approach to use high surface and reaction energy to drive densification, resulting in pressureless sintering of Ga3+ doped LLZO thin films (25 μm) at 1130 °C/0.3 h to ideal microstructures (95 ± 1% density, 1.2 ± 0.2 μm average grain size) normally accessible only by pressure-assisted sintering. Such films offer both high ionic conductivity (1.3 ± 0.1 mS cm-1) and record low ionic area specific resistance (2 Ω cm2).

Molecular approaches to epidemiology and clinical aspects of malaria.

PubMed

Brown, G V; Beck, H P; Molyneux, M; Marsh, K

2000-10-01

Malaria is a problem of global importance, responsible for 1-2 million deaths per year, mainly in African children, as well as considerable morbidity manifested as severe anaemia and encephalopathy in young children. Fundamental to the development of new tools for malaria control in humans is an increased understanding of key features of malaria infection, such as the diversity of outcome in different individuals, the understanding of different manifestations of the disease and of the mechanisms of immunity that allow clinical protection in the face of ongoing low-grade infection (concomitant immunity or premunition). Here, Graham Brown and colleagues review some of the ways in which molecular approaches might be used to increase our understanding of the epidemiology and clinical manifestations of malaria, as discussed at the Molecular Approaches to Malaria conference (MAM2000), Lorne, Australia, 2-5 February 2000.

Maxillofacial fracture epidemiology and treatment plans in the Northeast of Iran: A retrospective study

PubMed Central

Samieirad, Sahand; Aboutorabzade, Mohammad-Reza; Tohidi, Elahe; Shaban, Baratollah; Khalife, Hussein; Salami, Hamid-Reza

2017-01-01

Background The epidemiology of facial injuries varies based on lifestyle, cultural background and socioeconomic status in different countries and geographic zones. This study evaluated the epidemiology of maxillofacial fractures and treatment plans in hospitalized patients in Northeast of Iran (2015-2016). Material and Methods In this retrospective study, the medical records of 502 hospitalized patients were evaluated in the Department of Maxillofacial Surgery in Kamyab Hospital in Mashhad, Iran. The type and cause of fractures and treatment plans were recorded in a checklist. Data were analyzed with Mann–Whitney test, chi-squared test and Fisher’s exact test, using SPSS 21. Results The majority of patients were male (80.3%). Most subjects were in 20-30-year age range (43.2%). The fractures were mostly caused by accidents, particularly motorcycle accidents (MCAs), and the most common site of involvement was the body of the mandible. There was a significant association between the type of treatment and age. In fact, the age range of 16-59 years underwent open reduction internal fixation (ORIF) more than other age ranges (P=0.001). Also, there was a significant association between gender and fractures (P=0.002). Conclusions It was concluded that patient age and gender and trauma significantly affected the prevalence of maxillofacial traumas, fracture types and treatment plans. This information would be useful for making better health policy strategies. Key words:Epidemiology, treatment, facial injuries, maxillofacial fractures, trauma. PMID:28809369

Stability analysis on an economic epidemiological model with vaccination Pages : - , and.

PubMed

Avusuglo, Wisdom S; Abdella, Kenzu; Feng, Wenying

2017-08-01

In this paper, an economic epidemiological model with vaccination is studied. The stability of the endemic steady-state is analyzed and some bifurcation properties of the system are investigated. It is established that the system exhibits saddle-point and period-doubling bifurcations when adult susceptible individuals are vaccinated. Furthermore, it is shown that susceptible individuals also have the tendency of opting for more number of contacts even if the vaccine is inefficacious and thus causes the disease endemic to increase in the long run. Results from sensitivity analysis with specific disease parameters are also presented. Finally, it is shown that the qualitative behaviour of the system is affected by contact levels.

The Promise of Whole Genome Pathogen Sequencing for the Molecular Epidemiology of Emerging Aquaculture Pathogens

PubMed Central

Bayliss, Sion C.; Verner-Jeffreys, David W.; Bartie, Kerry L.; Aanensen, David M.; Sheppard, Samuel K.; Adams, Alexandra; Feil, Edward J.

2017-01-01

Aquaculture is the fastest growing food-producing sector, and the sustainability of this industry is critical both for global food security and economic welfare. The management of infectious disease represents a key challenge. Here, we discuss the opportunities afforded by whole genome sequencing of bacterial and viral pathogens of aquaculture to mitigate disease emergence and spread. We outline, by way of comparison, how sequencing technology is transforming the molecular epidemiology of pathogens of public health importance, emphasizing the importance of community-oriented databases and analysis tools. PMID:28217117

[Biological markers in epidemiology: concepts, applications, perspectives (part I)].

PubMed

Hoffmann, W; Latza, U; Ahrens, W; Greiser, K H; Kroke, A; Nieters, A; Schulze, M B; Steiner, M; Terschüren, C; Wjst, M

2002-02-01

The inclusion of biomarkers in epidemiological research provides new possibilities for exposure assessment and the study of early structural or functional changes and pre-clinical stages of diseases. At the same time issues of validity, reliability, and quality control as well as logistics require special attention. Usually epidemiological studies become more expensive with regard to time and cost. Interdisciplinary collaboration between epidemiology, basic research, and laboratory research is crucial. A prerequisite for this collaboration are agreements on definitions, methods and procedures. The definition of "biomarker" and a description of previous uses of biomarkers in epidemiological studies are presented in the first part of this paper. The second part addresses genetic markers and markers of individual sensitivity and susceptibility. We will end with a discussion about the possible future of biomarkers in epidemiology.

Lessons from sea louse and salmon epidemiology.

PubMed

Groner, Maya L; Rogers, Luke A; Bateman, Andrew W; Connors, Brendan M; Frazer, L Neil; Godwin, Sean C; Krkošek, Martin; Lewis, Mark A; Peacock, Stephanie J; Rees, Erin E; Revie, Crawford W; Schlägel, Ulrike E

2016-03-05

Effective disease management can benefit from mathematical models that identify drivers of epidemiological change and guide decision-making. This is well illustrated in the host-parasite system of sea lice and salmon, which has been modelled extensively due to the economic costs associated with sea louse infections on salmon farms and the conservation concerns associated with sea louse infections on wild salmon. Consequently, a rich modelling literature devoted to sea louse and salmon epidemiology has been developed. We provide a synthesis of the mathematical and statistical models that have been used to study the epidemiology of sea lice and salmon. These studies span both conceptual and tactical models to quantify the effects of infections on host populations and communities, describe and predict patterns of transmission and dispersal, and guide evidence-based management of wild and farmed salmon. As aquaculture production continues to increase, advances made in modelling sea louse and salmon epidemiology should inform the sustainable management of marine resources. © 2016 The Author(s).

Lessons from sea louse and salmon epidemiology

PubMed Central

Rogers, Luke A.; Bateman, Andrew W.; Connors, Brendan M.; Frazer, L. Neil; Godwin, Sean C.; Krkošek, Martin; Lewis, Mark A.; Peacock, Stephanie J.; Rees, Erin E.; Revie, Crawford W.; Schlägel, Ulrike E.

2016-01-01

Effective disease management can benefit from mathematical models that identify drivers of epidemiological change and guide decision-making. This is well illustrated in the host–parasite system of sea lice and salmon, which has been modelled extensively due to the economic costs associated with sea louse infections on salmon farms and the conservation concerns associated with sea louse infections on wild salmon. Consequently, a rich modelling literature devoted to sea louse and salmon epidemiology has been developed. We provide a synthesis of the mathematical and statistical models that have been used to study the epidemiology of sea lice and salmon. These studies span both conceptual and tactical models to quantify the effects of infections on host populations and communities, describe and predict patterns of transmission and dispersal, and guide evidence-based management of wild and farmed salmon. As aquaculture production continues to increase, advances made in modelling sea louse and salmon epidemiology should inform the sustainable management of marine resources. PMID:26880836

Epidemiology in the Era of Big Data

PubMed Central

Mooney, Stephen J; Westreich, Daniel J; El-Sayed, Abdulrahman M

2015-01-01

Big Data has increasingly been promoted as a revolutionary development in the future of science, including epidemiology. However, the definition and implications of Big Data for epidemiology remain unclear. We here provide a working definition of Big Data predicated on the so-called ‘3 Vs’: variety, volume, and velocity. From this definition, we argue that Big Data has evolutionary and revolutionary implications for identifying and intervening on the determinants of population health. We suggest that as more sources of diverse data become publicly available, the ability to combine and refine these data to yield valid answers to epidemiologic questions will be invaluable. We conclude that, while epidemiology as practiced today will continue to be practiced in the Big Data future, a component of our field’s future value lies in integrating subject matter knowledge with increased technical savvy. Our training programs and our visions for future public health interventions should reflect this future. PMID:25756221

Quantum key distribution with an entangled light emitting diode

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dzurnak, B.; Stevenson, R. M.; Nilsson, J.

Measurements performed on entangled photon pairs shared between two parties can allow unique quantum cryptographic keys to be formed, creating secure links between users. An advantage of using such entangled photon links is that they can be adapted to propagate entanglement to end users of quantum networks with only untrusted nodes. However, demonstrations of quantum key distribution with entangled photons have so far relied on sources optically excited with lasers. Here, we realize a quantum cryptography system based on an electrically driven entangled-light-emitting diode. Measurement bases are passively chosen and we show formation of an error-free quantum key. Our measurementsmore » also simultaneously reveal Bell's parameter for the detected light, which exceeds the threshold for quantum entanglement.« less

Characteristics of the Japanese Diet Described in Epidemiologic Publications: A Qualitative Systematic Review.

PubMed

Suzuki, Nozomu; Goto, Yoshihito; Ota, Haruka; Kito, Kumiko; Mano, Fumika; Joo, Erina; Ikeda, Kaori; Inagaki, Nobuya; Nakayama, Takeo

2018-01-01

International interest in the Japanese diet has grown in recent years. The aim of this systematic review was to evaluate and organize the Japanese diet and dietary characteristics from an epidemiological perspective, mainly focusing on the nutritional and dietary elements. PubMed, Web of Science, Japan Medical Abstracts Society, JDream III, and CiNii databases were searched. The eligibility criteria included research with an epidemiological study design that was either cross-sectional, cohort, or case-control-based that defined the dietary patterns of the Japanese diet using dietary pattern analysis. A total of 39 research articles that described the Japanese diet were included. The data that were extracted included the following: implementing country, location, study design, participant characteristics, key outcomes, methods used in the analysis of dietary patterns, and descriptions of the Japanese diet. As a result of the systematic review analyzing the descriptions of the Japanese diet from 39 selected articles, we were able to aggregate the descriptions into 16 categories from 33 factors. After performing a content analysis using a further aggregation of categories, we found that the top three applicable categories were soybeans/soybean-derived products, seafood, and vegetables; these were followed by rice and miso soup. The Japanese dietary content was found to be diverse based on an examination of epidemiological studies; however, we were able to aggregate the content into 16 categories. The Japanese diet is considered to be a dietary pattern that contains a combination of factors: the dietary staple, side dishes, and soup.

Evaluation of meteorological and epidemiological characteristics of fatal pulmonary embolism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Törő, Klára; Pongrácz, Rita; Bartholy, Judit; Váradi-T, Aletta; Marcsa, Boglárka; Szilágyi, Brigitta; Lovas, Attila; Dunay, György; Sótonyi, Péter

2016-03-01

The objective of the present study was to identify risk factors among epidemiological factors and meteorological conditions in connection with fatal pulmonary embolism. Information was collected from forensic autopsy records in sudden unexpected death cases where pulmonary embolism was the exact cause of death between 2001 and 2010 in Budapest. Meteorological parameters were detected during the investigated period. Gender, age, manner of death, cause of death, place of death, post-mortem pathomorphological changes and daily meteorological conditions (i.e. daily mean temperature and atmospheric pressure) were examined. We detected that the number of registered pulmonary embolism (No 467, 211 male) follows power law in time regardless of the manner of death. We first described that the number of registered fatal pulmonary embolism up to the nth day can be expressed as Y( n) = α ṡ n β where Y denotes the number of fatal pulmonary embolisms up to the nth day and α > 0 and β > 1 are model parameters. We found that there is a definite link between the cold temperature and the increasing incidence of fatal pulmonary embolism. Cold temperature and the change of air pressure appear to be predisposing factors for fatal pulmonary embolism. Meteorological parameters should have provided additional information about the predisposing factors of thromboembolism.

Epidemiology of Gout

PubMed Central

Choi, Hyon

2014-01-01

Synopsis Gout is the most prevalent inflammatory arthritis in men. The findings of several epidemiological studies from a diverse range of countries suggest that the prevalence of gout has risen over the last few decades. Whilst incidence data are scarce, data from the US suggests that the incidence of gout is also rising. Evidence from prospective epidemiological studies has confirmed dietary factors (animal purines, alcohol and fructose), obesity, the metabolic syndrome, hypertension, diuretic use, and chronic kidney disease as clinically relevant risk factors for hyperuricemia and gout. Low-fat dairy products, coffee, and vitamin C appear to have a protective effect. Further prospective studies are required to examine other proposed risk factors for hyperuricaemia and gout such as the use of β-blockers and angiotension-II receptor antagonists (other than losartan), obstructive sleep apnoea, and osteoarthritis, and putative protective factors such as calcium-channel blockers and losartan. PMID:24703341

Epidemiology: Informing Clinical Practice and Research on Language Disorders in Children.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lubker, Bobbie Boyd; Tomblin, J. Bruce

1998-01-01

Describes the discipline of epidemiology and the application of epidemiologic methods to the study of children's language disorders. Epidemiology is described as the study of the distributions and determinants of disease, disorders, disabilities, and desirable health events in populations. Common epidemiologic research designs are discussed.…

Exposure Assessment for Atmospheric Ultrafine Particles (UFPs) and Implications in Epidemiologic Research

PubMed Central

Sioutas, Constantinos; Delfino, Ralph J.; Singh, Manisha

2005-01-01

Epidemiologic research has shown increases in adverse cardiovascular and respiratory outcomes in relation to mass concentrations of particulate matter (PM) ≤2.5 or ≤10 μm in diameter (PM2.5, PM10, respectively). In a companion article [Delfino RJ, Sioutas C, Malik S. 2005. Environ Health Perspect 113(8):934–946]), we discuss epidemiologic evidence pointing to underlying components linked to fossil fuel combustion. The causal components driving the PM associations remain to be identified, but emerging evidence on particle size and chemistry has led to some clues. There is sufficient reason to believe that ultrafine particles < 0.1 μm (UFPs) are important because when compared with larger particles, they have order of magnitudes higher particle number concentration and surface area, and larger concentrations of adsorbed or condensed toxic air pollutants (oxidant gases, organic compounds, transition metals) per unit mass. This is supported by evidence of significantly higher in vitro redox activity by UFPs than by larger PM. Although epidemiologic research is needed, exposure assessment issues for UFPs are complex and need to be considered before undertaking investigations of UFP health effects. These issues include high spatial variability, indoor sources, variable infiltration of UFPs from a variety of outside sources, and meteorologic factors leading to high seasonal variability in concentration and composition, including volatility. To address these issues, investigators need to develop as well as validate the analytic technologies required to characterize the physical/chemical nature of UFPs in various environments. In the present review, we provide a detailed discussion of key characteristics of UFPs, their sources and formation mechanisms, and methodologic approaches to assessing population exposures. PMID:16079062

Study of the Influence of Key Process Parameters on Furfural Production.

PubMed

Fele Žilnik, Ljudmila; Grilc, Viktor; Mirt, Ivan; Cerovečki, Željko

2016-01-01

The present work reports the influence of key process variables on the furfural formation from leached chestnut-wood chips in a pressurized reactor. Effect of temperature, pressure, type and concentration of the catalyst solution, the steam flow rate or stripping module, the moisture content of the wood particles and geometric characteristics such as size and type of the reactor, particle size and bed height were considered systematically. One stage process was only taken into consideration. Lab-scale and pilot-scale studies were performed. The results of the non-catalysed laboratory experiments were compared with an actual non-catalysed (auto-catalysed) industrial process and with experiments on the pilot scale, the latter with 28% higher furfural yield compared to the others. Application of sulphuric acid as catalyst, in an amount of 0.03-0.05 g (H2SO4 100%)/g d.m. (dry material), enables a higher production of furfural at lower temperature and pressure of steam in a shorter reaction time. Pilot scale catalysed experiments have revealed very good performance for furfural formation under less severe operating conditions, with a maximum furfural yield as much as 88% of the theoretical value.

Chapter 4. Recent epidemiology of tick-borne encephalitis an effect of climate change?

PubMed

Korenberg, E I

2009-01-01

Consideration is given to the opinion of some specialists that the rise in tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) morbidity at the turn of the century has been accounted for by new features of TBE epidemiology as well as by global climate change. It is shown that neither the reputed current expansion of the ranges of main TBE vectors, the taiga (Ixodes persulcatus) and sheep (Ixodes ricinus) ticks, nor the significant rise of their abundance and TBE virus prevalence in them are confirmed by any objective data. The concept of recent tick expansion to large cities and human TBE infection in newly formed urban foci disagrees with the facts repeatedly described during the past four decades. There is no reliable information on the expansion of TBE nosological range. The influence of newly formed anthropurgic foci and of changes in the contribution of city dwellers to the general morbidity structure on the current epidemiological situation is estimated. As in the case of any other zoonosis with natural focality, the level of epidemiological manifestation of TBE foci is determined by two main parameters: the intensity of virus circulation in the foci (i.e., their loimopotential) and the frequency of human contact with them. Attention is paid to the character of interaction between these two factors, which accounted for a major outbreak of TBE morbidity at the end of the twentieth century, followed by a long-term decrease in its level.

[Precision medicine: new opportunities and challenges for molecular epidemiology].

PubMed

Song, Jing; Hu, Yonghua

2016-04-01

Since the completion of the Human Genome Project in 2003 and the announcement of the Precision Medicine Initiative by U.S. President Barack Obama in January 2015, human beings have initially completed the " three steps" of " genomics to biology, genomics to health as well as genomics to society". As a new inter-discipline, the emergence and development of precision medicine have relied on the support and promotion from biological science, basic medicine, clinical medicine, epidemiology, statistics, sociology and information science, etc. Meanwhile, molecular epidemiology is considered to be the core power to promote precision medical as a cross discipline of epidemiology and molecular biology. This article is based on the characteristics and research progress of medicine and molecular epidemiology respectively, focusing on the contribution and significance of molecular epidemiology to precision medicine, and exploring the possible opportunities and challenges in the future.

MEASURING RISKS IN HUMANS: THE PROMISE AND PRACTICE OF EPIDEMIOLOGY

EPA Science Inventory

Epidemiology has been considered the fundamental science of public health policy. The use of epidemiologic data in environmental health policy has been limited particularly in the environmental regulatory arena. Epidemiologic risk assessment (ERA) is different from risk ass...

The Thermal Conductivity of Earth's Core: A Key Geophysical Parameter's Constraints and Uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, Q.

2018-05-01

The thermal conductivity of iron alloys at high pressures and temperatures is a critical parameter in governing ( a) the present-day heat flow out of Earth's core, ( b) the inferred age of Earth's inner core, and ( c) the thermal evolution of Earth's core and lowermost mantle. It is, however, one of the least well-constrained important geophysical parameters, with current estimates for end-member iron under core-mantle boundary conditions varying by about a factor of 6. Here, the current state of calculations, measurements, and inferences that constrain thermal conductivity at core conditions are reviewed. The applicability of the Wiedemann-Franz law, commonly used to convert electrical resistivity data to thermal conductivity data, is probed: Here, whether the constant of proportionality, the Lorenz number, is constant at extreme conditions is of vital importance. Electron-electron inelastic scattering and increases in Fermi-liquid-like behavior may cause uncertainties in thermal conductivities derived from both first-principles-associated calculations and electrical conductivity measurements. Additional uncertainties include the role of alloying constituents and local magnetic moments of iron in modulating the thermal conductivity. Thus, uncertainties in thermal conductivity remain pervasive, and hence a broad range of core heat flows and inner core ages appear to remain plausible.

Epidemiology and control of human schistosomiasis in Tanzania

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

In Tanzania, the first cases of schistosomiasis were reported in the early 19th century. Since then, various studies have reported prevalences of up to 100% in some areas. However, for many years, there have been no sustainable control programmes and systematic data from observational and control studies are very limited in the public domain. To cover that gap, the present article reviews the epidemiology, malacology, morbidity, and the milestones the country has made in efforts to control schistosomiasis and discusses future control approaches. The available evidence indicates that, both urinary and intestinal schistosomiasis are still highly endemic in Tanzania and cause significant morbidity.Mass drug administration using praziquantel, currently used as a key intervention measure, has not been successful in decreasing prevalence of infection. There is therefore an urgent need to revise the current approach for the successful control of the disease. Clearly, these need to be integrated control measures. PMID:23192005

The Current Status of the Disease Caused by Enterovirus 71 Infections: Epidemiology, Pathogenesis, Molecular Epidemiology, and Vaccine Development.

PubMed

Chang, Ping-Chin; Chen, Shou-Chien; Chen, Kow-Tong

2016-09-09

Enterovirus 71 (EV71) infections have a major public health impact in the Asia-Pacific region. We reviewed the epidemiology, pathogenesis, and molecular epidemiology of EV71 infection as well as EV71 vaccine development. Previous studies were found using the search terms "enterovirus 71" and "epidemiology" or "pathogenesis" or "molecular epidemiology" or "vaccine" in Medline and PubMed. Articles that were not published in the English language, manuscripts without an abstract, and opinion articles were excluded from the review. The reported epidemiology of cases caused by EV71 infection varied from country to country; seasonal variations in incidence were observed. Most cases of EV71 infection that resulted in hospitalization for complications occurred in children less than five years old. The brainstem was the most likely major target of EV71 infection. The emergence of the EV71 epidemic in the Asia-Pacific region has been associated with the circulation of different genetic lineages (genotypes B3, B4, C1, C2, and C4) that appear to be undergoing rapid evolutionary changes. The relationship between the gene structure of the EV71 virus and the factors that ensure its survival, circulation, and evasion of immunity is still unknown. EV71 infection has emerged as an important global public health problem. Vaccine development, including the development of inactivated whole-virus live attenuated, subviral particles, and DNA vaccines, has been progressing.

Clinical epidemiology.

PubMed

Martin, S W; Bonnett, B

1987-06-01

Rational clinical practice requires deductive particularization of diagnostic findings, prognoses, and therapeutic responses from groups of animals (herds) to the individual animal (herd) under consideration This process utilizes concepts, skills, and methods of epidemiology, as they relate to the study of the distribution and determinants of health and disease in populations, and casts them in a clinical perspective.We briefly outline diagnostic strategies and introduce a measure of agreement, called kappa, between clinical diagnoses. This statistic is useful not only as a measure of diagnostic accuracy, but also as a means of quantifying and understanding disagreement between diagnosticians. It is disconcerting to many, clinicians included, that given a general deficit of data on sensitivity and specificity, the level of agreement between many clinical diagnoses is only moderate at best with kappa values of 0.3 to 0.6.Sensitivity, specificity, pretest odds, and posttest probability of disease are defined and related to the interpretation of clinical findings and ancillary diagnostic test results. An understanding of these features and how they relate to ruling-in or ruling-out a diagnosis, or minimizzing diagnostic errors will greatly enhance the diagnostic accuracy of the practitioner, and reduce the frequency of clinical disagreement. The approach of running multiple tests on every patient is not only wasteful and expensive, it is unlikely to improve the ability of the clinician to establish the correct diagnosis.We conclude with a discussion of how to decide on the best therapy, a discussion which centers on, and outlines the key features of, the well designed clinical trial. Like a diagnosis, the results from a clinical trial may not always be definitive, nonetheless it is the best available method of gleaning information about treatment efficacy.

Local health department epidemiologic capacity: a stratified cross-sectional assessment describing the quantity, education, training, and perceived competencies of epidemiologic staff.

PubMed

O'Keefe, Kaitlin A; Shafir, Shira C; Shoaf, Kimberley I

2013-01-01

Local health departments (LHDs) must have sufficient numbers of staff functioning in an epidemiologic role with proper education, training, and skills to protect the health of communities they serve. This pilot study was designed to describe the composition, training, and competency level of LHD staff and examine the hypothesis that potential disparities exist between LHDs serving different sized populations. Cross-sectional surveys were conducted with directors and epidemiologic staff from a sample of 100 LHDs serving jurisdictions of varied sizes. Questionnaires included inquiries regarding staff composition, education, training, and measures of competency modeled on previously conducted studies by the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists. Number of epidemiologic staff, academic degree distribution, epidemiologic training, and both director and staff confidence in task competencies were calculated for each LHD size strata. Disparities in measurements were observed in LHDs serving different sized populations. LHDs serving small populations reported a smaller average number of epidemiologic staff than those serving larger jurisdictions. As size of population served increased, percentages of staff and directors holding bachelors' and masters' degrees increased, while those holding RN degrees decreased. A higher degree of perceived competency of staff in most task categories was reported in LHDs serving larger populations. LHDs serving smaller populations reported fewer epidemiologic staff, therefore might benefit from additional resources. Differences observed in staff education, training, and competencies suggest that enhanced epidemiologic training might be particularly needed in LHDs serving smaller populations. RESULTS can be used as a baseline for future research aimed at identifying areas where training and personnel resources might be particularly needed to increase the capabilities of LHDs.

MOLECULAR EPIDEMIOLOGY: POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON THE ASSESSMENT OF PUBLIC HEALTH

EPA Science Inventory

Introduction

The term "molecular epidemiology" has been used to cover a broad range of scientific activities, often without specific reference to epidemiology. In fact, as noted by Foxman and Riley [1],molecular epidemiology has often been described almost exclusively in...

Project 5322 Mid-Term Report: Key Eco-Hydrological Parameters Retrieval And Land Data Assimilation System Development In A Typical Inland River Basin Of Chinas Arid Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faivre, R.; Colin, J.; Menenti, M.; Lindenbergh, R.; Van Den Bergh, L.; Yu, H.; Jia, L.; Xin, L.

2010-10-01

Improving the understanding and the monitoring of high elevation regions hydrology is of major relevance from both societal and environmental points of view for many Asian countries, in particular in terms of flood and drought, but also in terms of food security in a chang- ing environment. Satellite and airborne remote sensing technologies are of utmost for such a challenge. Exist- ing imaging spectro-radiometers, radars, microwave ra- diometers and backscatter LIDAR provide a very com- prehensive suite of measurements over a wide rage of wavelengths, time frequencies and spatial resolu- tions. It is however needed to devise new algorithms to convert these radiometric measurements into useful eco-hydrological quantitative parameters for hydrologi- cal modeling and water management. The DRAGON II project entitled Key Eco-Hydrological Parameters Re- trieval and Land Data Assimilation System Development in a Typical Inland River Basin of Chinas Arid Region (ID 5322) aims at improving the monitoring, understand- ing, and predictability of hydrological and ecological pro- cesses at catchment scale, and promote the applicability of quantitative remote sensing in watershed science. Ex- isting Earth Observation platforms provided by the Euro- pean Space Agency as well as prototype airborne systems developed in China - ENVISAT/AATSR, ALOS/PRISM and PALSAR, Airborne LIDAR - are used and combined to retrieve advanced land surface physical properties over high elevation arid regions of China. The existing syn- ergies between this project, the CEOP-AEGIS project (FP7) and the WATER project (CAS) provide incentives for innovative studies. The investigations presented in the following report focus on the development of advanced and innovative methodologies and algorithms to monitor both the state and the trend of key eco-hydrological vari- ables: 3D vegetation properties, land surface evaporation, glacier mass balance and drought indicators.

Multi-Strain Deterministic Chaos in Dengue Epidemiology, A Challenge for Computational Mathematics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aguiar, Maíra; Kooi, Bob W.; Stollenwerk, Nico

2009-09-01

Recently, we have analysed epidemiological models of competing strains of pathogens and hence differences in transmission for first versus secondary infection due to interaction of the strains with previously aquired immunities, as has been described for dengue fever, known as antibody dependent enhancement (ADE). These models show a rich variety of dynamics through bifurcations up to deterministic chaos. Including temporary cross-immunity even enlarges the parameter range of such chaotic attractors, and also gives rise to various coexisting attractors, which are difficult to identify by standard numerical bifurcation programs using continuation methods. A combination of techniques, including classical bifurcation plots and Lyapunov exponent spectra has to be applied in comparison to get further insight into such dynamical structures. Especially, Lyapunov spectra, which quantify the predictability horizon in the epidemiological system, are computationally very demanding. We show ways to speed up computations of such Lyapunov spectra by a factor of more than ten by parallelizing previously used sequential C programs. Such fast computations of Lyapunov spectra will be especially of use in future investigations of seasonally forced versions of the present models, as they are needed for data analysis.

Integrating the landscape epidemiology and genetics of RNA viruses: rabies in domestic dogs as a model.

PubMed

Brunker, K; Hampson, K; Horton, D L; Biek, R

2012-12-01

Landscape epidemiology and landscape genetics combine advances in molecular techniques, spatial analyses and epidemiological models to generate a more real-world understanding of infectious disease dynamics and provide powerful new tools for the study of RNA viruses. Using dog rabies as a model we have identified how key questions regarding viral spread and persistence can be addressed using a combination of these techniques. In contrast to wildlife rabies, investigations into the landscape epidemiology of domestic dog rabies requires more detailed assessment of the role of humans in disease spread, including the incorporation of anthropogenic landscape features, human movements and socio-cultural factors into spatial models. In particular, identifying and quantifying the influence of anthropogenic features on pathogen spread and measuring the permeability of dispersal barriers are important considerations for planning control strategies, and may differ according to cultural, social and geographical variation across countries or continents. Challenges for dog rabies research include the development of metapopulation models and transmission networks using genetic information to uncover potential source/sink dynamics and identify the main routes of viral dissemination. Information generated from a landscape genetics approach will facilitate spatially strategic control programmes that accommodate for heterogeneities in the landscape and therefore utilise resources in the most cost-effective way. This can include the efficient placement of vaccine barriers, surveillance points and adaptive management for large-scale control programmes.

Lessons learned during active epidemiological surveillance of Ebola and Marburg viral hemorrhagic fever epidemics in Africa.

PubMed

Allaranga, Yokouide; Kone, Mamadou Lamine; Formenty, Pierre; Libama, Francois; Boumandouki, Paul; Woodfill, Celia J I; Sow, Idrissa; Duale, Sambe; Alemu, Wondimagegnehu; Yada, Adamou

2010-03-01

To review epidemiological surveillance approaches used during Ebola and Marburg hemorrhagic fever epidemics in Africa in the past fifteen years. Overall, 26 hemorrhagic epidemic outbreaks have been registered in 12 countries; 18 caused by the Ebola virus and eight by the Marburg virus. About 2551 cases have been reported, among which 268 were health workers (9,3%). Based on articles and epidemic management reports, this review analyses surveillance approaches, route of introduction of the virus into the population (urban and rural), the collaboration between the human health sector and the wildlife sector and factors that have affected epidemic management. Several factors affecting the epidemiological surveillance during Ebola and Marburg viruses hemorrhagic epidemics have been observed. During epidemics in rural settings, outbreak investigations have shown multiple introductions of the virus into the human population through wildlife. In contrast, during epidemics in urban settings a single introduction of the virus in the community was responsible for the epidemic. Active surveillance is key to containing outbreaks of Ebola and Marburg viruses Collaboration with those in charge of the conservation of wildlife is essential for the early detection of viral hemorrhagic fever epidemics. Hemorrhagic fever epidemics caused by Ebola and Marburg viruses are occurring more and more frequently in Sub-Saharan Africa and only an adapted epidemiological surveillance system will allow for early detection and effective response.

Population health and status of epidemiology: WHO European Region I.

PubMed

Rahu, Mati; Vlassov, Vasiliy V; Pega, Frank; Andreeva, Tatiana; Ay, Pinar; Baburin, Aleksei; Bencko, Vladimír; Csépe, Péter; Gebska-Kuczerowska, Anita; Ondrusová, Martina; Ribak, Joseph

2013-06-01

This article of the International Epidemiological Association commissioned paper series stocktakes the population health and status of epidemiology in 21 of the 53 countries of the WHO European Region. By United Nations geographical classification, these countries belong to Eastern Europe, Western Asia and South-Central Asia. Published data were used to describe population health indicators and risk factors. Epidemiological training and research was assessed based on author knowledge, information searches and E-mail survey of experts. Bibliometric analyses determined epidemiological publication outputs. Between-country differences in life expectancy, amount and profile of disease burden and prevalence of risk factors are marked. Epidemiological training is affected by ongoing structural reforms of educational systems. Training is advanced in Israel and several Eastern European countries. Epidemiological research is mainly university-based in most countries, but predominantly conducted by governmental research institutes in several countries of the former Soviet Union. Funding is generally external and limited, partially due to competition from and prioritization of biomedical research. Multiple relevant professional societies exist, especially in Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary. Few of the region's 39 epidemiological academic journals have international currency. The number of epidemiological publications per population is highest for Israel and lowest for South-Central Asian countries. Epidemiological capacity will continue to be heterogeneous across the region and depend more on countries' individual historical, social, political and economic conditions and contexts than their epidemiologists' successive efforts. National and international research funding, and within- and between-country collaborations should be enhanced, especially for South-Central Asian countries.

Synthetic vitreous fibers: a review toxicology, epidemiology and regulations.

PubMed

Bernstein, David M

2007-01-01

This review addresses the characteristics which differentiate synthetic vitreous fibers (SVFs, e.g., fiber glass, stonewool, slagwool, refractory ceramic fibers, etc.), how these influence the potential biopersistence and toxicity, the most recent epidemiological results and the integration of these findings into the health and safety regulations in Europe and the United States. Also presented is the historical basis for the European classification directive. The use and equivalence of the chronic inhalation toxicology and chronic intraperitoneal injection studies in laboratory rodents for evaluation of fiber toxicology is assessed as well as the impact of dose selection and design on the validity of the study. While synthetic vitreous fibers can span a wide range of chemistries, recognition and understanding of the importance of biopersistence (ability to persist in the lung) in fiber toxicity has led to the development of more and more biosoluble fibers (that break down rapidly in the lung). Still, the epidemiological data available which are largely based upon the use of fibers in past decades, indicate that the SVF do not present a human health risk at current exposure levels. The animal toxicology and biopersistence data provide a coherent basis for understanding and evaluating the parameters which affect SVF toxicity. The current regulations are based upon an extensive knowledge base of chronic studies in laboratory rodents which confirm the relationship between chronic adverse effects and the biopersistence of the longer fibers that can not be fully phagocytised and efficiently cleared from the lung. The amorphous structure of synthetic vitreous fibers facilitates designing fibers in use today with low biopersistence. Both the epidemiological data and the animal studies database provide strong assurance that there is little if any health risk associated with the use of SVFs of low biopersistence. IARC (2001) reclassified these fibers from Category 2b to

Infectious Agents and Cancer Epidemiology Research Webinar Series

Cancer.gov

Infectious Agents and Cancer Epidemiology Research Webinar Series highlights emerging and cutting-edge research related to infection-associated cancers, shares scientific knowledge about technologies and methods, and fosters cross-disciplinary discussions on infectious agents and cancer epidemiology.

Epidemiological aspects of suicide attempts among Moroccan children.

PubMed

Mekaoui, Nour; Karboubi, Lamiae; Ouadghiri, Fatima Zahra; Dakhama, Badr Sououd Benjelloun

2016-01-01

Suicidal behavior among children has significantly increased in Morocco. We conducted a study on the epidemiological aspect to propose a treatment strategy. Descriptive retrospective study over a period of 3 years (April 2012-April 2015) involving children who visited pediatric medical emergencies of the Children Hospital of Rabat after an autolysis attempt. We observed epidemiological parameters, history, social and family context, the means used, the presumed cause, clinical manifestation, and the management. 66 patients were identified. A female predominance was found (sex =15). The average age was 13 years old. This was a first episode in 97% of cases. Psychiatric history was found in 6 patients. The causes of suicide attempt were unidentified in 65%. The most frequent cause was family conflict (35%). The most frequent method was pharmaceutical drug ingestion (54.4%). Children were asymptomatic (57.6%). Neurological manifestations (30%) were most frequent. Digestive symptoms (12%) and hemodynamic (3%) were also discovered. Patients were hospitalized in a general pediatric service 92.4% of the times, admitted to intensive care 4.5% of the times, and two patients refused to be hospitalized. The treatment consisted of gastric lavage (18%) supplemented by symptomatic measures. The outcome was favorable in 95.4% of cases. We recorded 2 deaths by rat poison poisoning. All patients were advised in writing after leaving to follow up with a psychological treatment. Suicide attempts are the result of an ill being, mostly among children living in a family with conflict. Upstream treatment is essential to identify children at risk. Additionally, a psychiatric care in hospital is essential to avoid recurrences.

Epidemiology, Science as Inquiry and Scientific Literacy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kaelin, Mark; Huebner, Wendy

2003-01-01

The recent worldwide SARS outbreak has put the science of epidemiology into the headlines once again. Epidemiology is "... the study of the distribution and the determinants of health-related states or events and the application of these methods to the control of health problems" (Gordis 2000). In this context, the authors have developed a…

Epidemiology of hepatitis C virus in Iran.

PubMed

Taherkhani, Reza; Farshadpour, Fatemeh

2015-10-14

In Iran, the prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is relatively low according to the population-based epidemiological studies. However, the epidemiology of HCV is changing and the rate of HCV infection is increasing due to the growth in the number of injecting drug users in the society. In addition, a shift has occurred in the distribution pattern of HCV genotypes among HCV-infected patients in Iran. Genotype 1a is the most prevalent genotype in Iran, but in recent years, an increase in the frequency of 3a and a decrease in 1a and 1b have been reported. These variations in the epidemiology of HCV reflect differences in the routes of transmission, status of public health, lifestyles, and risk factors in different groups and geographic regions of Iran. Health policy makers should consider these differences to establish better strategies for control and prevention of HCV infection. Therefore, this review was conducted to present a clear view regarding the current epidemiology of HCV infection in Iran.

Epidemiology of hepatitis C virus in Iran

PubMed Central

Taherkhani, Reza; Farshadpour, Fatemeh

2015-01-01

In Iran, the prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is relatively low according to the population-based epidemiological studies. However, the epidemiology of HCV is changing and the rate of HCV infection is increasing due to the growth in the number of injecting drug users in the society. In addition, a shift has occurred in the distribution pattern of HCV genotypes among HCV-infected patients in Iran. Genotype 1a is the most prevalent genotype in Iran, but in recent years, an increase in the frequency of 3a and a decrease in 1a and 1b have been reported. These variations in the epidemiology of HCV reflect differences in the routes of transmission, status of public health, lifestyles, and risk factors in different groups and geographic regions of Iran. Health policy makers should consider these differences to establish better strategies for control and prevention of HCV infection. Therefore, this review was conducted to present a clear view regarding the current epidemiology of HCV infection in Iran. PMID:26478671

Epidemiological studies of cognitive impairment and dementia across Eastern and Middle European countries (epidemiology of dementia in Eastern and Middle European Countries).

PubMed

Kiejna, A; Frydecka, D; Adamowski, T; Bickel, H; Reynish, E; Prince, M; Caracciolo, B; Fratiglioni, L; Georges, J

2011-02-01

To determine the availability and the consistency of prevalence findings of epidemiological studies on cognitive impairment and dementia conducted in Eastern and Middle Europe. We adopted a stepwise multimethod study approach consisting of iterative literature searches for epidemiological articles published between 1990 and 2006 and subsequent data analyses of published material, reanalyses of existing accessible epidemiological data sets and expert inquiries in Eastern and Middle European countries. Systematic computer-assisted searches used the keywords: "dementia", "Alzheimer", "cognitive impairment", "incidence", "prevalence", "epidemiology" in combination with the name of the relevant countries or "Europe" in English and Polish language. We supplemented the literature search with a review of the references in the articles that were identified during the initial search. We were able to find few regional and country-specific epidemiological studies of various kinds (population-based, cohort, cross-sectional studies) and conducted on different restricted population groups of patients (from neurological units, out-patients units, residential homes). No studies were identified from most of the countries taken under consideration and the ones we found were characterized by an immense diversity with a considerable degree of clinical and methodological variations. The few studies that there are suggest prevalence rates of dementia in Eastern Europe similar to those in Western Europe. There is strong need for epidemiological studies in Eastern and Middle Europe, as well as for greater coordination and standardization of methods to improve the quality and comparability of epidemiological data to determine the prevalences' rates of dementia in all the EU countries. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Understanding nutritional epidemiology and its role in policy.

PubMed

Satija, Ambika; Yu, Edward; Willett, Walter C; Hu, Frank B

2015-01-01

Nutritional epidemiology has recently been criticized on several fronts, including the inability to measure diet accurately, and for its reliance on observational studies to address etiologic questions. In addition, several recent meta-analyses with serious methodologic flaws have arrived at erroneous or misleading conclusions, reigniting controversy over formerly settled debates. All of this has raised questions regarding the ability of nutritional epidemiologic studies to inform policy. These criticisms, to a large degree, stem from a misunderstanding of the methodologic issues of the field and the inappropriate use of the drug trial paradigm in nutrition research. The exposure of interest in nutritional epidemiology is human diet, which is a complex system of interacting components that cumulatively affect health. Consequently, nutritional epidemiology constantly faces a unique set of challenges and continually develops specific methodologies to address these. Misunderstanding these issues can lead to the nonconstructive and sometimes naive criticisms we see today. This article aims to clarify common misunderstandings of nutritional epidemiology, address challenges to the field, and discuss the utility of nutritional science in guiding policy by focusing on 5 broad questions commonly asked of the field. © 2015 American Society for Nutrition.

Psychiatric epidemiology: selected recent advances and future directions.

PubMed Central

Kessler, R. C.

2000-01-01

Reviewed in this article are selected recent advances and future challenges for psychiatric epidemiology. Major advances in descriptive psychiatric epidemiology in recent years include the development of reliable and valid fully structured diagnostic interviews, the implementation of parallel cross-national surveys of the prevalences and correlates of mental disorders, and the initiation of research in clinical epidemiology. Remaining challenges include the refinement of diagnostic categories and criteria, recognition and evaluation of systematic underreporting bias in surveys of mental disorders, creation and use of accurate assessment tools for studying disorders of children, adolescents, the elderly, and people in less developed countries, and setting up systems to carry out small area estimations for needs assessment and programme planning. Advances in analytical and experimental epidemiology have been more modest. A major challenge is for psychiatric epidemiologists to increase the relevance of their analytical research to their colleagues in preventative psychiatry as well as to social policy analysts. Another challenge is to develop interventions aimed at increasing the proportion of people with mental disorders who receive treatment. Despite encouraging advances, much work still needs to be conducted before psychiatric epidemiology can realize its potential to improve the mental health of populations. PMID:10885165

Evaluation of a rule-based method for epidemiological document classification towards the automation of systematic reviews.

PubMed

Karystianis, George; Thayer, Kristina; Wolfe, Mary; Tsafnat, Guy

2017-06-01

Most data extraction efforts in epidemiology are focused on obtaining targeted information from clinical trials. In contrast, limited research has been conducted on the identification of information from observational studies, a major source for human evidence in many fields, including environmental health. The recognition of key epidemiological information (e.g., exposures) through text mining techniques can assist in the automation of systematic reviews and other evidence summaries. We designed and applied a knowledge-driven, rule-based approach to identify targeted information (study design, participant population, exposure, outcome, confounding factors, and the country where the study was conducted) from abstracts of epidemiological studies included in several systematic reviews of environmental health exposures. The rules were based on common syntactical patterns observed in text and are thus not specific to any systematic review. To validate the general applicability of our approach, we compared the data extracted using our approach versus hand curation for 35 epidemiological study abstracts manually selected for inclusion in two systematic reviews. The returned F-score, precision, and recall ranged from 70% to 98%, 81% to 100%, and 54% to 97%, respectively. The highest precision was observed for exposure, outcome and population (100%) while recall was best for exposure and study design with 97% and 89%, respectively. The lowest recall was observed for the population (54%), which also had the lowest F-score (70%). The generated performance of our text-mining approach demonstrated encouraging results for the identification of targeted information from observational epidemiological study abstracts related to environmental exposures. We have demonstrated that rules based on generic syntactic patterns in one corpus can be applied to other observational study design by simple interchanging the dictionaries aiming to identify certain characteristics (i.e., outcomes

Epidemiology & Genomics Research Program

Cancer.gov

The Epidemiology and Genomics Research Program, in the National Cancer Institute's Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences, funds research in human populations to understand the determinants of cancer occurrence and outcomes.

Physical activity: from epidemiological evidence to individualized patient management.

PubMed

Charansonney, Olivier Luc; Vanhees, Luc; Cohen-Solal, Alain

2014-01-01

Physical activity (PA), physical fitness (PF), and even a few sedentary behaviors (SB) are strongly and independently linked to improved survival rate. However, key questions remain: what are the physiological interrelationships between SB, PA, and PF? How should we differently emphasize promoting PA, increasing PF with exercise, and decreasing SB among other prevention measures? What are the interrelationships of both PA and SB levels with drug treatment efficacy? To address these questions we developed an integrated patient-centric model combining physiology with epidemiological evidence to characterize the individual risk attached to PA level, PF, and SB. Epidemiological data were collected by extensive literature review. Nine meta-analyses, 198 cohort studies (3.8 million people), and 13 controlled trials were reviewed. 1. A high level of SB induces chronic stress and increases the risk of both chronic disease and mortality. 2. Vigorous PA increases PF and physiological reserve, thereby improving survival rate. This effect is not mediated by improved traditional risk factors. The risk for most individuals is a mix of high SB, low to mild PA, and low to mild PF. This model can improve the individualized prescription of PA modalities. Furthermore, the benefit of treatments such as statins or beta-blockers can be cancelled out if a decrease in PA or an increase in SB is induced by drug related side effects. To improve patient management both types of therapeutic interventions and dose should be carefully chosen for each individual in order to maintain/increase PA level while decreasing SB. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Key-value store with internal key-value storage interface

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bent, John M.; Faibish, Sorin; Ting, Dennis P. J.

A key-value store is provided having one or more key-value storage interfaces. A key-value store on at least one compute node comprises a memory for storing a plurality of key-value pairs; and an abstract storage interface comprising a software interface module that communicates with at least one persistent storage device providing a key-value interface for persistent storage of one or more of the plurality of key-value pairs, wherein the software interface module provides the one or more key-value pairs to the at least one persistent storage device in a key-value format. The abstract storage interface optionally processes one or moremore » batch operations on the plurality of key-value pairs. A distributed embodiment for a partitioned key-value store is also provided.« less

[Epidemiology's and epidemiologists' vices and virtues].

PubMed

Gennaro, Valerio; Ricci, Paolo; Levis, Angelo Gino; Crosignani, Paolo

2009-01-01

Epidemiology is a public health oriented discipline and is aimed to detect the spatial, temporal, social and causal distribution of diseases in the human population, in order to promote timely and effective preventive solutions. This paper highlights some gold standard of the epidemiological method and suggests some considerations for a critical comprehension of epidemiological studies, in particular those that deny or minimize the existence of public health risks. This paper will focus on some crucial elements such as definition, attribution, misclassification and underestimation of the harmful exposures caused by a multitude of factors, undervaluation of the possible interactions among harmful agents (even when law limits are respected), selection of exposed populations, insufficient number of studied diseases, importance of the right comparisons between similar groups when the reference population is used, disproportion between shortness of follow-up in respect with long latency period of the studied diseases, including cancer. This paper also observes that many epidemiologists carry out confirmative studies rather than exploratory ones, and they end to both underestimate and underevaluate the multiplicity of the causal associations in favour of a reductive and a critical approach to the statistics which, in final analysis, wants to replace epidemiology. It points out, moreover, that neglecting primary prevention as well as precautionary principles in the interpretation of public health studies, arises the suspicion of professional limitation or strong conflict of interests (business bias). Epidemiology is naturally oriented to both primary prevention and public health defense, and today, more than ever before, for many reasons, among which the overwhelming market power that is first and foremost the cause of the general increase of populations affected by avoidable pathologies, a systematic, correct and timely application of this precious discipline seems to be

Epidemiologic evidence on mobile phones and tumor risk: a review.

PubMed

Ahlbom, Anders; Feychting, Maria; Green, Adele; Kheifets, Leeka; Savitz, David A; Swerdlow, Anthony J

2009-09-01

This review summarizes and interprets epidemiologic evidence bearing on a possible causal relation between radiofrequency field exposure from mobile phone use and tumor risk. In the last few years, epidemiologic evidence on mobile phone use and the risk of brain and other tumors of the head in adults has grown in volume, geographic diversity of study settings, and the amount of data on longer-term users. However, some key methodologic problems remain, particularly with regard to selective nonresponse and inaccuracy and bias in recall of phone use. Most studies of glioma show small increased or decreased risks among users, although a subset of studies show appreciably elevated risks. We considered methodologic features that might explain the deviant results, but found no clear explanation. Overall the studies published to date do not demonstrate an increased risk within approximately 10 years of use for any tumor of the brain or any other head tumor. Despite the methodologic shortcomings and the limited data on long latency and long-term use, the available data do not suggest a causal association between mobile phone use and fast-growing tumors such as malignant glioma in adults (at least for tumors with short induction periods). For slow-growing tumors such as meningioma and acoustic neuroma, as well as for glioma among long-term users, the absence of association reported thus far is less conclusive because the observation period has been too short.

Recruitment of minority students to U.S. epidemiology degree programs. The American College of Epidemiology Committee on Minority Affairs.

PubMed

St George, D M; Schoenbach, V J; Reynolds, G H; Nwangwu, J; Adams-Campbell, L

1997-05-01

African-, Hispanic-, and Native Americans are underrepresented in the field of epidemiology including degree programs. As part of the assessment component of its mandate, the American College of Epidemiology Committee on Minority Affairs conducted a survey of minority recruitment activities of U.S. epidemiology degree programs. The survey, containing questions related to marketing activities, institution infrastructure, financial support, academic offerings, and receptive/supportive environment, was mailed to all programs identified in Episource as offering epidemiology degrees. Separate responses were requested concerning activities at the department and school levels. Fifty-two completed questionnaires were received (response rate of 79%). All but two institutions had at least one activity conducted by either the department or the school. However, all activities were more common at the school- than at the department-level. Indeed, some activities [a written minority student recruitment plan (6% of departments and 52% of schools), personnel with minority recruitment responsibilities (4% of departments and 73% of schools)] were almost exclusively school-sponsored. Although marketing-type activities were the most common minority recruitment tool used by departments, only 21% made visits to minority schools, 17% visited other colleges specifically to recruit minorities, and 12% produced materials targeted to ethnic/racial minorities. Six percent of the departments and 19% of the schools offered financial support (grants, fellowships, scholarships) to almost all underrepresented minority students. Even though individual epidemiology degree programs may not see a need for general recruitment activities in order to maintain the size of their applicant pool, minority-specific recruitment activities should be undertaken to enhance and diversify that pool. We recommend that epidemiology departments develop, adopt, and implement comprehensive written plans for the

Panel discussion review: session 1--exposure assessment and related errors in air pollution epidemiologic studies.

PubMed

Sarnat, Jeremy A; Wilson, William E; Strand, Matthew; Brook, Jeff; Wyzga, Ron; Lumley, Thomas

2007-12-01

Examining the validity of exposure metrics used in air pollution epidemiologic models has been a key focus of recent exposure assessment studies. The objective of this work has been, largely, to determine what a given exposure metric represents and to quantify and reduce any potential errors resulting from using these metrics in lieu of true exposure measurements. The current manuscript summarizes the presentations of the co-authors from a recent EPA workshop, held in December 2006, dealing with the role and contributions of exposure assessment in addressing these issues. Results are presented from US and Canadian exposure and pollutant measurement studies as well as theoretical simulations to investigate what both particulate and gaseous pollutant concentrations represent and the potential errors resulting from their use in air pollution epidemiologic studies. Quantifying the association between ambient pollutant concentrations and corresponding personal exposures has led to the concept of defining attenuation factors, or alpha. Specifically, characterizing pollutant-specific estimates for alpha was shown to be useful in developing regression calibration methods involving PM epidemiologic risk estimates. For some gaseous pollutants such as NO2 and SO2, the associations between ambient concentrations and personal exposures were shown to be complex and still poorly understood. Results from recent panel studies suggest that ambient NO2 measurements may, in some locations, be serving as surrogates to traffic pollutants, including traffic-related PM2.5, hopanes, steranes, and oxidized nitrogen compounds (rather than NO2).

ADHD in the Arab World: A Review of Epidemiologic Studies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Farah, Lynn G.; Fayyad, John A.; Eapen, Valsamma; Cassir,Youmna; Salamoun, Mariana M.; Tabet, Caroline C.; Mneimneh, Zeina N.; Karam, Elie G.

2009-01-01

Objective: Epidemiological studies on psychiatric disorders are quite rare in the Arab World. This article reviews epidemiological studies on ADHD in all the Arab countries. Method: All epidemiological studies on ADHD conducted from 1966 through th present were reviewed. Samples were drawn from the general community, primary care clinical…

[Epidemiological intelligence as a model of organization in health].

PubMed

Rodrigues-Júnior, Antonio Luiz

2012-03-01

The concept of epidemiological intelligence, as a construction of information societies, goes beyond monitoring a list of diseases and the ability to elicit rapid responses. The concept should consider the complexity of the definition of epidemiology in the identification of this object of study without being limited to a set of actions in a single government sector. The activities of epidemiological intelligence include risk assessment, strategies for prevention and protection, subsystems of information, crisis management rooms, geographical analysis, etc. This concept contributes to the understanding of policies in health, in multisectorial and geopolitical dimensions, as regards the organization of services around public health emergencies, primary healthcare, as well as disasters. The activities of epidemiological intelligence should not be restricted to scientific research, but the researchers must beware of threats to public health. Lalonde's model enabled consideration of epidemiological intelligence as a way to restructure policies and share resources by creating communities of intelligence, whose purpose is primarily to deal with public health emergencies and disasters.

April 2018 Cancer Epidemiology Matters E-News | EGRP/DCCPS/NCI/NIH

Cancer.gov

April 2018 issue of Cancer Epidemiology Matters E-News, published by NCI’s Epidemiology and Genomics Research Program, features research of early-life factors, cancer epidemiologic data sharing, upcoming events, and more.

Global epidemiology.

PubMed

Elliott, P

1993-01-01

Epidemiology is the study of the distribution and determinants of health and disease in human populations. Epidemiology on a global scale is severely constrained by the lack of data. In many countries, there are no comprehensive data on mortality or basic demographic data. Where data are available, findings on the relationship of environment to health across countries need to be interpreted with caution. For example, there is well-known variation in standards of medical practice and diagnosis, and in certification and coding, but there are also large differences in diet, the social environment and lifestyle--all of which strongly predict disease incidence. Inappropriate inference concerning aetiology made from such broad-scale studies may result in what has been termed the 'ecological fallacy'. A complementary approach is to collect and analyse data in standardized fashion as part of international collaborative studies. These can offer some important advantages over the more conventional single-centre design. Recent advances have meant that studies of environment and health can now--in some countries--be carried out using routine data at the small area level. Although problems of interpretation remain, they are generally less severe than in broad-scale studies. Examples of this approach are given.

A social epidemiological study on HIV/AIDS in a village of Henan Province, China.

PubMed

Yan, Jin; Xiao, Shuiyuan; Zhou, Liang; Tang, Yong; Xu, Guangming; Luo, Dan; Yi, Qifeng

2013-01-01

The HIV/AIDS epidemic caused by commercial blood donation in rural Henan Province of China in the early- to mid-1990s is the largest known cohort in the world related to blood donation but is not fully described. The objectives of this study were to describe the epidemic, epidemiology, and social epidemiology of commercial blood donation and HIV/AIDS. Both qualitative and quantitative mixed methods were used. A village was randomly selected from the 38 key HIV/AIDS pandemic villages in Henan Province. "Demographic Data Form" was applied to collect demographic information of each resident. Focus groups were held for the managers, some residents, members of "HIV/AIDS Work-Team" (organized by the Henan Provincial Government) in the village. Every village physician, people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA), school header, and other stakeholders were interviewed individually. The social epidemiology of HIV/AIDS was analyzed under three perspectives of the framework: individual, social, and structural perspectives. In this village, there were 2335 residents, 484 (20.3%) were former donors, 107 (4.6%) were PLWHA, and 96.3% of PLWHA were infected through commercial blood donation. Individually, low education and plasma donation were the risky factors of HIV/AIDS infection. Socially, the epidemic was geography-, kinship-, and conformity-related. Structurally, the related macrostructure factor was policy endorsement of national blood products. The microstructure factors were poverty and value belief on male child in passing down generations. It is concluded that commercial blood donation and HIV/AIDS epidemic in the village are symbiotically related. The epidemic is temporary and socially determined.

Parameter Estimations of Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) Model over the Life History of a Key Antarctic Species: The Antarctic Sea Star Odontaster validus Koehler, 1906.

PubMed

Agüera, Antonio; Collard, Marie; Jossart, Quentin; Moreau, Camille; Danis, Bruno

2015-01-01

Marine organisms in Antarctica are adapted to an extreme ecosystem including extremely stable temperatures and strong seasonality due to changes in day length. It is now largely accepted that Southern Ocean organisms are particularly vulnerable to global warming with some regions already being challenged by a rapid increase of temperature. Climate change affects both the physical and biotic components of marine ecosystems and will have an impact on the distribution and population dynamics of Antarctic marine organisms. To predict and assess the effect of climate change on marine ecosystems a more comprehensive knowledge of the life history and physiology of key species is urgently needed. In this study we estimate the Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model parameters for key benthic Antarctic species the sea star Odontaster validus using available information from literature and experiments. The DEB theory is unique in capturing the metabolic processes of an organism through its entire life cycle as a function of temperature and food availability. The DEB model allows for the inclusion of the different life history stages, and thus, becomes a tool that can be used to model lifetime feeding, growth, reproduction, and their responses to changes in biotic and abiotic conditions. The DEB model presented here includes the estimation of reproduction handling rules for the development of simultaneous oocyte cohorts within the gonad. Additionally it links the DEB model reserves to the pyloric caeca an organ whose function has long been ascribed to energy storage. Model parameters described a slowed down metabolism of long living animals that mature slowly. O. validus has a large reserve that-matching low maintenance costs- allow withstanding long periods of starvation. Gonad development is continuous and individual cohorts developed within the gonads grow in biomass following a power function of the age of the cohort. The DEB model developed here for O. validus allowed us to

Spread of a disease and its effect on population dynamics in an eco-epidemiological system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Upadhyay, Ranjit Kumar; Roy, Parimita

2014-12-01

In this paper, an eco-epidemiological model with simple law of mass action and modified Holling type II functional response has been proposed and analyzed to understand how a disease may spread among natural populations. The proposed model is a modification of the model presented by Upadhyay et al. (2008) [1]. Existence of the equilibria and their stability analysis (linear and nonlinear) has been studied. The dynamical transitions in the model have been studied by identifying the existence of backward Hopf-bifurcations and demonstrated the period-doubling route to chaos when the death rate of predator (μ1) and the growth rate of susceptible prey population (r) are treated as bifurcation parameters. Our studies show that the system exhibits deterministic chaos when some control parameters attain their critical values. Chaotic dynamics is depicted using the 2D parameter scans and bifurcation analysis. Possible implications of the results for disease eradication or its control are discussed.

Six paths for the future of social epidemiology.

PubMed

Galea, Sandro; Link, Bruce G

2013-09-15

Social epidemiology is now an accepted part of the academic intellectual landscape. However, in many ways, social epidemiology also runs the risk of losing the identity that distinguished it as a field during its emergence. In the present article, we scan the strengths of social epidemiology to imagine paths forward that will make the field distinct and useful to the understanding of population health in future. We suggest 6 paths to such a future, each emerging from promising research trends in the field in which social epidemiologists can, and should, lead in coming years. Each of these paths contributes to the formation of distinct capacities that social epidemiologists can claim and use to elaborate or fill in gaps in the already strong history of social epidemiology. They present an opportunity for the field to build on its strengths and move forward while leading in new and critical areas in population health.

May 2018 Cancer Epidemiology Matters E-News | EGRP/DCCPS/NCI/NIH

Cancer.gov

May 2018 issue of Cancer Epidemiology Matters E-News, published by NCI’s Epidemiology and Genomics Research Program, features examples of funded cancer epidemiology grant applications, updated cancer statistics resources, upcoming events, and more.

An assessment of survey measures used across key epidemiologic studies of United States Gulf War I Era Veterans

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Over the past two decades, 12 large epidemiologic studies and 2 registries have focused on U.S. veterans of the 1990–1991 Gulf War Era. We conducted a review of these studies’ research tools to identify existing gaps and overlaps of efforts to date, and to advance development of the next generation of Gulf War Era survey tools. Overall, we found that many of the studies used similar instruments. Questions regarding exposures were more similar across studies than other domains, while neurocognitive and psychological tools were the most variable. Many studies focused on self-reported survey results, with a range of validation practices. However, physical exams, biomedical assessments, and specimen storage were not common. This review suggests that while research may be able to pool data from past surveys, future surveys need to consider how their design can yield data comparable with previous surveys. Additionally, data that incorporate recent technologies in specimen and genetic analyses would greatly enhance such survey data. When combined with existing data on deployment-related exposures and post-deployment health conditions, longitudinal follow-up of existing studies within this collaborative framework could represent an important step toward improving the health of veterans. PMID:23302181

Gene-Environment Interactions in Schizophrenia: Review of Epidemiological Findings and Future Directions

PubMed Central

van Os, Jim; Rutten, Bart PF; Poulton, Richie

2008-01-01

Concern is building about high rates of schizophrenia in large cities, and among immigrants, cannabis users, and traumatized individuals, some of which likely reflects the causal influence of environmental exposures. This, in combination with very slow progress in the area of molecular genetics, has generated interest in more complicated models of schizophrenia etiology that explicitly posit gene-environment interactions (EU-GEI. European Network of Schizophrenia Networks for the Study of Gene Environment Interactions. Schizophrenia aetiology: do gene-environment interactions hold the key? [published online ahead of print April 25, 2008] Schizophr Res; S0920-9964(08) 00170–9). Although findings of epidemiological gene-environment interaction (G × E) studies are suggestive of widespread gene-environment interactions in the etiology of schizophrenia, numerous challenges remain. For example, attempts to identify gene-environment interactions cannot be equated with molecular genetic studies with a few putative environmental variables “thrown in”: G × E is a multidisciplinary exercise involving epidemiology, psychology, psychiatry, neuroscience, neuroimaging, pharmacology, biostatistics, and genetics. Epidemiological G × E studies using indirect measures of genetic risk in genetically sensitive designs have the advantage that they are able to model the net, albeit nonspecific, genetic load. In studies using direct molecular measures of genetic variation, a hypothesis-driven approach postulating synergistic effects between genes and environment impacting on a final common pathway, such as “sensitization” of mesolimbic dopamine neurotransmission, while simplistic, may provide initial focus and protection against the numerous false-positive and false-negative results that these investigations engender. Experimental ecogenetic approaches with randomized assignment may help to overcome some of the limitations of observational studies and allow for the additional

Sewage epidemiology and illicit drug research: the development of ethical research guidelines.

PubMed

Prichard, Jeremy; Hall, Wayne; de Voogt, Pim; Zuccato, Ettore

2014-02-15

To discuss the need to develop ethical guidelines for researchers using sewage epidemiology to monitor drug use in the general population and specific precincts, including prisons, schools and workplaces. Describe current applications of sewage epidemiology, identify potential ethical risks associated with this science, and identify key means by which these risks may be mitigated through proportionate ethical guidance that allows this science to be fully developed. A rapidly advancing field of research is sewage epidemiology (SE) - the analysis of wastewater samples to monitor illicit drug use and other substances. Typically this research involves low ethical risks because individual participants cannot be identified and, consequently, review has been waived by human research ethics committees. In the absence of such oversight, ethical research guidelines are recommended for SE teams, peer reviewers and journal editors; guidelines will assist them to mitigate any risks in general population studies and studies of prisons, schools and workplaces. Potential harms include the stigmatisation of participants and, in the prison setting, austere policy responses to SE data that impact negatively upon inmate-participants. The risk of harm can be managed through research planning, awareness of the socio-political context in which results will be interpreted (or, in the case of media, sensationalised) and careful relations with industry partners. Ethical guidelines should be developed in consultation with SE scholars and be periodically amended. They should include publication processes that safeguard scientific rigour and be promulgated through existing research governance structures. Guidelines will assist to promote an ethical research culture among SE teams and scholars involved in the publication process and this will work to protect the reputation of the field. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

From biological anthropology to applied public health: epidemiological approaches to the study of infectious disease.

PubMed

Albalak, Rachel

2009-01-01

This article describes two large, multisite infectious disease programs: the Tuberculosis Epidemiologic Studies Consortium (TBESC) and the Emerging Infections Programs (EIPs). The links between biological anthropology and applied public health are highlighted using these programs as examples. Funded by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the TBESC and EIPs conduct applied public health research to strengthen infectious disease prevention and control efforts in the United States. They involve collaborations among CDC, public health departments, and academic and clinical institutions. Their unique role in national infectious disease work, including their links to anthropology, shared elements, key differences, strengths and challenges, is discussed.

Age-Adjustment and Related Epidemiology Rates in Education and Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baker, John D.; Kruckman, Laurence; George, Joyce

2006-01-01

A quick review of introductory textbooks reveals that while gerontology authors and instructors introduce some aspect of demography and epidemiology data, there is limited focus on age adjustment or other important epidemiology rates. The goal of this paper is to reintroduce a variety of basic epidemiology strategies such as incidence, prevalence,…

Sensitivity of DIVWAG to Variations in Weather Parameters

DTIC Science & Technology

1976-04-01

1 18. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 1 19. KEY WORDS (Continue on reverse aide if necessary and Identify by block number) DIVWAG WAR GAME SIMULATION...simulation of a Division Level War Game , to determine the signif- icance of varying battlefield parameters; i.e., artillery parameters, troop and...The only Red artillery weapons doing better in bad weather are the 130MM guns , but this statistic is tempered by the few casualties occuring in

Empirical Bayes methods for smoothing data and for simultaneous estimation of many parameters.

PubMed Central

Yanagimoto, T; Kashiwagi, N

1990-01-01

A recent successful development is found in a series of innovative, new statistical methods for smoothing data that are based on the empirical Bayes method. This paper emphasizes their practical usefulness in medical sciences and their theoretically close relationship with the problem of simultaneous estimation of parameters, depending on strata. The paper also presents two examples of analyzing epidemiological data obtained in Japan using the smoothing methods to illustrate their favorable performance. PMID:2148512

Florida Keys

NASA Image and Video Library

2002-12-13

The Florida Keys are a chain of islands, islets and reefs extending from Virginia Key to the Dry Tortugas for about 309 kilometers (192 miles). The keys are chiefly limestone and coral formations. The larger islands of the group are Key West (with its airport), Key Largo, Sugarloaf Key, and Boca Chica Key. A causeway extends from the mainland to Key West. This image was acquired on October 28, 2001, by the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) on NASA's Terra satellite. With its 14 spectral bands from the visible to the thermal infrared wavelength region, and its high spatial resolution of 15 to 90 meters (about 50 to 300 feet), ASTER images Earth to map and monitor the changing surface of our planet. http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA03890

EPIDEMIOLOGY AND EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

Research collaborations between the National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory (NHEERL) and the National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) centered on the development and application of exposure analysis tools in environmental epidemiology include the El Paso...

Genesis of Preeclampsia: An Epidemiological Approach

PubMed Central

Salvador-Moysén, Jaime; Martínez-López, Yolanda; Ramírez-Aranda, José M.; Aguilar-Durán, Marisela; Terrones-González, Alberto

2012-01-01

There are analyzed some of the main aspects related to the causality of preeclampsia, privileging two types of models: the clinic model and the epidemiologic model, first one represented by the hypothesis of the reduced placental perfusion and the second one considering the epidemiologic findings related to the high levels of psychosocial stress and its association with preeclampsia. It is reasoned out the relevance of raising the causality of the disease from an interdisciplinary perspective, integrating the valuable information generated from both types, clinical and epidemiologic, and finally a tentative explanatory model of preeclampsia is proposed, the subclinical and sociocultural aspects that predispose and trigger the disease are emphasized making aspects to stand out: the importance of reduced placental perfusion as an indicator of individual risk, and the high levels of physiological stress, as a result of the unfavorable conditions of the psychosocial surroundings (indicator of population risk) of the pregnant women. PMID:22462008

Is midsole thickness a key parameter for the running pattern?

PubMed

Chambon, Nicolas; Delattre, Nicolas; Guéguen, Nils; Berton, Eric; Rao, Guillaume

2014-01-01

Many studies have highlighted differences in foot strike pattern comparing habitually shod runners who ran barefoot and with running shoes. Barefoot running results in a flatter foot landing and in a decreased vertical ground reaction force compared to shod running. The aim of this study was to investigate one possible parameter influencing running pattern: the midsole thickness. Fifteen participants ran overground at 3.3 ms(-1) barefoot and with five shoes of different midsole thickness (0 mm, 2 mm, 4 mm, 8 mm, 16 mm) with no difference of height between rearfoot and forefoot. Impact magnitude was evaluated using transient peak of vertical ground reaction force, loading rate, tibial acceleration peak and rate. Hip, knee and ankle flexion angles were computed at touch-down and during stance phase (range of motion and maximum values). External net joint moments and stiffness for hip, knee and ankle joints were also observed as well as global leg stiffness. No significant effect of midsole thickness was observed on ground reaction force and tibial acceleration. However, the contact time increased with midsole thickness. Barefoot running compared to shod running induced ankle in plantar flexion at touch-down, higher ankle dorsiflexion and lower knee flexion during stance phase. These adjustments are suspected to explain the absence of difference on ground reaction force and tibial acceleration. This study showed that the presence of very thin footwear upper and sole was sufficient to significantly influence the running pattern. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Finite-size analysis of a continuous-variable quantum key distribution

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Leverrier, Anthony; Grosshans, Frederic; Grangier, Philippe

2010-06-15

The goal of this paper is to extend the framework of finite-size analysis recently developed for quantum key distribution to continuous-variable protocols. We do not solve this problem completely here, and we mainly consider the finite-size effects on the parameter estimation procedure. Despite the fact that some questions are left open, we are able to give an estimation of the secret key rate for protocols which do not contain a postselection procedure. As expected, these results are significantly more pessimistic than those obtained in the asymptotic regime. However, we show that recent continuous-variable protocols are able to provide fully securemore » secret keys in the finite-size scenario, over distances larger than 50 km.« less

[Epidemiological dynamics of Dengue on Easter Island].

PubMed

Canals, Mauricio; González, Christian; Canals, Andrea; Figueroa, Daniela

2012-08-01

Dengue is considered an emerging disease with an increasing prevalence especially in South America. In 2002, an epidemic of classic Dengue (DENV-1) occurred unexpectedly on Easter Island, where it had never been detected before. It reappeared in 2006-2007 and 2008, 2009 and 2011. The aim of this study was to estimate the most relevant parameters of the epidemiological dynamics of transmission of Dengue on Easter Island and to model the dynamics since 2002, comparing the predictions with the actual situation observed. Of the total cases, 52.27% were females and 47.73% men. The average age of infection was 31.38 ± 18.37 years, similar in men and women. We estimated the reproductive number R0 = 3.005 with an IC0,95 = [1.92, 4.61]. The inter-epidemic period reached an estimated T = 5.20 to 6.8 years. The case simulation showed recurrent epidemics with decreasing magnitude (damped oscillations), which is a known phenomenon in models of dengue and malaria. There was good qualitative fit to the epidemiological dynamics from 2002 onwards. It accurately predicted the rise in cases between 2006 and 2011. The predicted number of cases during the 2002 epidemic is greater than the confirmed cases and the predicted epidemic was faster than notified cases. Interepidemic period in the simulation was 6.72 years between 2002 and 2008 and 4.68 years between 2008 and 2013. From the theoretical perspective, the first epidemic had affected 94% of the population (approximately 3500 cases), but 639 were reported suggesting underreporting and a lot of sub-clinical cases occurred. Future epidemic of decreasing size are expected, although the main danger are epidemics of hemorrhagic dengue fever resulting from the introduction of different dengue virus serotypes.

GGOS and the EOP - the key role of SLR for a stable estimation of highly accurate Earth orientation parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bloßfeld, Mathis; Panzetta, Francesca; Müller, Horst; Gerstl, Michael

2016-04-01

The GGOS vision is to integrate geometric and gravimetric observation techniques to estimate consistent geodetic-geophysical parameters. In order to reach this goal, the common estimation of station coordinates, Stokes coefficients and Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP) is necessary. Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) provides the ability to study correlations between the different parameter groups since the observed satellite orbit dynamics are sensitive to the above mentioned geodetic parameters. To decrease the correlations, SLR observations to multiple satellites have to be combined. In this paper, we compare the estimated EOP of (i) single satellite SLR solutions and (ii) multi-satellite SLR solutions. Therefore, we jointly estimate station coordinates, EOP, Stokes coefficients and orbit parameters using different satellite constellations. A special focus in this investigation is put on the de-correlation of different geodetic parameter groups due to the combination of SLR observations. Besides SLR observations to spherical satellites (commonly used), we discuss the impact of SLR observations to non-spherical satellites such as, e.g., the JASON-2 satellite. The goal of this study is to discuss the existing parameter interactions and to present a strategy how to obtain reliable estimates of station coordinates, EOP, orbit parameter and Stokes coefficients in one common adjustment. Thereby, the benefits of a multi-satellite SLR solution are evaluated.

Security of Color Image Data Designed by Public-Key Cryptosystem Associated with 2D-DWT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mishra, D. C.; Sharma, R. K.; Kumar, Manish; Kumar, Kuldeep

2014-08-01

In present times the security of image data is a major issue. So, we have proposed a novel technique for security of color image data by public-key cryptosystem or asymmetric cryptosystem. In this technique, we have developed security of color image data using RSA (Rivest-Shamir-Adleman) cryptosystem with two-dimensional discrete wavelet transform (2D-DWT). Earlier proposed schemes for security of color images designed on the basis of keys, but this approach provides security of color images with the help of keys and correct arrangement of RSA parameters. If the attacker knows about exact keys, but has no information of exact arrangement of RSA parameters, then the original information cannot be recovered from the encrypted data. Computer simulation based on standard example is critically examining the behavior of the proposed technique. Security analysis and a detailed comparison between earlier developed schemes for security of color images and proposed technique are also mentioned for the robustness of the cryptosystem.

EPIDEMIOLOGIC STUDIES OF DISINFECTANTS AND DISINFECTANT BY-PRODUCTS

EPA Science Inventory

This article provides a review of the epidemiologic evidence for human health effects that may be associated with the disinfection of drinking water. An epidemiologic study attempts to link human health effects with exposure to a specific agent (e.g., DBCM), agents (e.g., THMs or...

The Biosurveillance Analytics Resource Directory (BARD): Facilitating the use of epidemiological models for infectious disease surveillance

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Margevicius, Kristen J.; Generous, Nicholas; Abeyta, Esteban

Epidemiological modeling for infectious disease is important for disease management and its routine implementation needs to be facilitated through better description of models in an operational context. A standardized model characterization process that allows selection or making manual comparisons of available models and their results is currently lacking. A key need is a universal framework to facilitate model description and understanding of its features. Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) has developed a comprehensive framework that can be used to characterize an infectious disease model in an operational context. The framework was developed through a consensus among a panel of subjectmore » matter experts. In this paper, we describe the framework, its application to model characterization, and the development of the Biosurveillance Analytics Resource Directory (BARD; http://brd.bsvgateway.org/brd/), to facilitate the rapid selection of operational models for specific infectious/communicable diseases. We offer this framework and associated database to stakeholders of the infectious disease modeling field as a tool for standardizing model description and facilitating the use of epidemiological models.« less

The Biosurveillance Analytics Resource Directory (BARD): Facilitating the Use of Epidemiological Models for Infectious Disease Surveillance

PubMed Central

Margevicius, Kristen J; Generous, Nicholas; Abeyta, Esteban; Althouse, Ben; Burkom, Howard; Castro, Lauren; Daughton, Ashlynn; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Hyman, James M.; Kiang, Richard; Morse, Andrew P.; Pancerella, Carmen M.; Pullum, Laura; Ramanathan, Arvind; Schlegelmilch, Jeffrey; Scott, Aaron; Taylor-McCabe, Kirsten J; Vespignani, Alessandro; Deshpande, Alina

2016-01-01

Epidemiological modeling for infectious disease is important for disease management and its routine implementation needs to be facilitated through better description of models in an operational context. A standardized model characterization process that allows selection or making manual comparisons of available models and their results is currently lacking. A key need is a universal framework to facilitate model description and understanding of its features. Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) has developed a comprehensive framework that can be used to characterize an infectious disease model in an operational context. The framework was developed through a consensus among a panel of subject matter experts. In this paper, we describe the framework, its application to model characterization, and the development of the Biosurveillance Analytics Resource Directory (BARD; http://brd.bsvgateway.org/brd/), to facilitate the rapid selection of operational models for specific infectious/communicable diseases. We offer this framework and associated database to stakeholders of the infectious disease modeling field as a tool for standardizing model description and facilitating the use of epidemiological models. PMID:26820405

The Biosurveillance Analytics Resource Directory (BARD): Facilitating the Use of Epidemiological Models for Infectious Disease Surveillance.

PubMed

Margevicius, Kristen J; Generous, Nicholas; Abeyta, Esteban; Althouse, Ben; Burkom, Howard; Castro, Lauren; Daughton, Ashlynn; Del Valle, Sara Y; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Hyman, James M; Kiang, Richard; Morse, Andrew P; Pancerella, Carmen M; Pullum, Laura; Ramanathan, Arvind; Schlegelmilch, Jeffrey; Scott, Aaron; Taylor-McCabe, Kirsten J; Vespignani, Alessandro; Deshpande, Alina

2016-01-01

Epidemiological modeling for infectious disease is important for disease management and its routine implementation needs to be facilitated through better description of models in an operational context. A standardized model characterization process that allows selection or making manual comparisons of available models and their results is currently lacking. A key need is a universal framework to facilitate model description and understanding of its features. Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) has developed a comprehensive framework that can be used to characterize an infectious disease model in an operational context. The framework was developed through a consensus among a panel of subject matter experts. In this paper, we describe the framework, its application to model characterization, and the development of the Biosurveillance Analytics Resource Directory (BARD; http://brd.bsvgateway.org/brd/), to facilitate the rapid selection of operational models for specific infectious/communicable diseases. We offer this framework and associated database to stakeholders of the infectious disease modeling field as a tool for standardizing model description and facilitating the use of epidemiological models.

The Biosurveillance Analytics Resource Directory (BARD): Facilitating the use of epidemiological models for infectious disease surveillance

DOE PAGES

Margevicius, Kristen J.; Generous, Nicholas; Abeyta, Esteban; ...

2016-01-28

Epidemiological modeling for infectious disease is important for disease management and its routine implementation needs to be facilitated through better description of models in an operational context. A standardized model characterization process that allows selection or making manual comparisons of available models and their results is currently lacking. A key need is a universal framework to facilitate model description and understanding of its features. Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) has developed a comprehensive framework that can be used to characterize an infectious disease model in an operational context. The framework was developed through a consensus among a panel of subjectmore » matter experts. In this paper, we describe the framework, its application to model characterization, and the development of the Biosurveillance Analytics Resource Directory (BARD; http://brd.bsvgateway.org/brd/), to facilitate the rapid selection of operational models for specific infectious/communicable diseases. We offer this framework and associated database to stakeholders of the infectious disease modeling field as a tool for standardizing model description and facilitating the use of epidemiological models.« less

Six Paths for the Future of Social Epidemiology

PubMed Central

Galea, Sandro; Link, Bruce G.

2013-01-01

Social epidemiology is now an accepted part of the academic intellectual landscape. However, in many ways, social epidemiology also runs the risk of losing the identity that distinguished it as a field during its emergence. In the present article, we scan the strengths of social epidemiology to imagine paths forward that will make the field distinct and useful to the understanding of population health in future. We suggest 6 paths to such a future, each emerging from promising research trends in the field in which social epidemiologists can, and should, lead in coming years. Each of these paths contributes to the formation of distinct capacities that social epidemiologists can claim and use to elaborate or fill in gaps in the already strong history of social epidemiology. They present an opportunity for the field to build on its strengths and move forward while leading in new and critical areas in population health. PMID:24008899

Commentary: Epidemiology in the era of big data.

PubMed

Mooney, Stephen J; Westreich, Daniel J; El-Sayed, Abdulrahman M

2015-05-01

Big Data has increasingly been promoted as a revolutionary development in the future of science, including epidemiology. However, the definition and implications of Big Data for epidemiology remain unclear. We here provide a working definition of Big Data predicated on the so-called "three V's": variety, volume, and velocity. From this definition, we argue that Big Data has evolutionary and revolutionary implications for identifying and intervening on the determinants of population health. We suggest that as more sources of diverse data become publicly available, the ability to combine and refine these data to yield valid answers to epidemiologic questions will be invaluable. We conclude that while epidemiology as practiced today will continue to be practiced in the Big Data future, a component of our field's future value lies in integrating subject matter knowledge with increased technical savvy. Our training programs and our visions for future public health interventions should reflect this future.

The emergence of translational epidemiology: from scientific discovery to population health impact.

PubMed

Khoury, Muin J; Gwinn, Marta; Ioannidis, John P A

2010-09-01

Recent emphasis on translational research (TR) is highlighting the role of epidemiology in translating scientific discoveries into population health impact. The authors present applications of epidemiology in TR through 4 phases designated T1-T4, illustrated by examples from human genomics. In T1, epidemiology explores the role of a basic scientific discovery (e.g., a disease risk factor or biomarker) in developing a "candidate application" for use in practice (e.g., a test used to guide interventions). In T2, epidemiology can help to evaluate the efficacy of a candidate application by using observational studies and randomized controlled trials. In T3, epidemiology can help to assess facilitators and barriers for uptake and implementation of candidate applications in practice. In T4, epidemiology can help to assess the impact of using candidate applications on population health outcomes. Epidemiology also has a leading role in knowledge synthesis, especially using quantitative methods (e.g., meta-analysis). To explore the emergence of TR in epidemiology, the authors compared articles published in selected issues of the Journal in 1999 and 2009. The proportion of articles identified as translational doubled from 16% (11/69) in 1999 to 33% (22/66) in 2009 (P = 0.02). Epidemiology is increasingly recognized as an important component of TR. By quantifying and integrating knowledge across disciplines, epidemiology provides crucial methods and tools for TR.

The Emergence of Translational Epidemiology: From Scientific Discovery to Population Health Impact

PubMed Central

Khoury, Muin J.; Gwinn, Marta; Ioannidis, John P. A.

2010-01-01

Recent emphasis on translational research (TR) is highlighting the role of epidemiology in translating scientific discoveries into population health impact. The authors present applications of epidemiology in TR through 4 phases designated T1–T4, illustrated by examples from human genomics. In T1, epidemiology explores the role of a basic scientific discovery (e.g., a disease risk factor or biomarker) in developing a “candidate application” for use in practice (e.g., a test used to guide interventions). In T2, epidemiology can help to evaluate the efficacy of a candidate application by using observational studies and randomized controlled trials. In T3, epidemiology can help to assess facilitators and barriers for uptake and implementation of candidate applications in practice. In T4, epidemiology can help to assess the impact of using candidate applications on population health outcomes. Epidemiology also has a leading role in knowledge synthesis, especially using quantitative methods (e.g., meta-analysis). To explore the emergence of TR in epidemiology, the authors compared articles published in selected issues of the Journal in 1999 and 2009. The proportion of articles identified as translational doubled from 16% (11/69) in 1999 to 33% (22/66) in 2009 (P = 0.02). Epidemiology is increasingly recognized as an important component of TR. By quantifying and integrating knowledge across disciplines, epidemiology provides crucial methods and tools for TR. PMID:20688899

Field Epidemiology and Laboratory Training Programs in West Africa as a model for sustainable partnerships in animal and human health.

PubMed

Becker, Karen M; Ohuabunwo, Chima; Ndjakani, Yassa; Nguku, Patrick; Nsubuga, Peter; Mukanga, David; Wurapa, Frederick

2012-09-01

The concept of animal and human health experts working together toward a healthier world has been endorsed, but challenges remain in identifying concrete actions to move this one health concept from vision to action. In 2008, as a result of avian influenza outbreaks in West Africa, international donor support led to a unique opportunity to invest in Field Epidemiology and Laboratory Training Programs (FELTPs) in the region that engaged the animal and human health sectors to strengthen the capacity for prevention and control of zoonotic diseases. The FELTPs mixed 25% to 35% classroom and 65% to 75% field-based training and service for cohorts of physicians, veterinarians, and laboratory scientists. They typically consisted of a 2-year course leading to a master's degree in field epidemiology and public health laboratory management for midlevel public health leaders and competency-based short courses for frontline public health surveillance workers. Trainees and graduates work in multidisciplinary teams to conduct surveillance, outbreak investigations, and epidemiological studies for disease control locally and across borders. Critical outcomes of these programs include development of a cadre of public health leaders with core skills in integrated disease surveillance, outbreak investigation, vaccination campaigns, laboratory diagnostic testing, and epidemiological studies that address priority public health problems. A key challenge exists in identifying ways to successfully scale up and transform this innovative donor-driven program into a sustainable multisectoral one health workforce capacity development model.

Sewage in ground water in the Florida Keys

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shinn, E.A.

1995-12-31

More than 24,000 septic tanks, 5,000 cesspools, and greater than 600 shallow disposal wells introduce sewage effluents into porous and permeable limestone underlying the Florida Keys. To porous and permeable limestone underlying the Florida Keys. To assess the fate of sewage nutrients, 21 2- to 20-m-deep wells were core drilled and completed as water-monitoring wells. The wells were sampled quarterly and analyzed for 17 parameters. including nutrients and bacteria. Nutrients (mainly NH4, - which is 30 to 40 times higher than in surface sea water) were detected in ground water beneath the Keys and offshore coral reefs. Highest levels weremore » beneath reefs 5 to 8 km offshore. Ground waters were generally hypersaline and fecal bacteria (fecal coliform and streptococci) were detected in ground water beneath living coral reefs. Higher sea level on the Florida Bay side of the Keys is proposed as the mechanism for forcing ground water toward offshore coral reefs. Tidal pumping, which is more pronounced near the Keys, causes leakage of ground water where the sediment is thin. Areas lacking sediment cover consist of bare limestone bedrock or permeable coral reefs. These are the areas where coral diseases and algal growth have increased in recent years. Pollutants entering the ground water beneath the Florida Keys are likely to be transported seaward beneath impermeable Holocene sediments and may be upwelling through coral reefs and other hardbottom communities.« less

[Atmospheric parameter estimation for LAMOST/GUOSHOUJING spectra].

PubMed

Lu, Yu; Li, Xiang-Ru; Yang, Tan

2014-11-01

It is a key task to estimate the atmospheric parameters from the observed stellar spectra in exploring the nature of stars and universe. With our Large Sky Area Multi-Object Fiber Spectroscopy Telescope (LAMOST) which begun its formal Sky Survey in September 2012, we are obtaining a mass of stellar spectra in an unprecedented speed. It has brought a new opportunity and a challenge for the research of galaxies. Due to the complexity of the observing system, the noise in the spectrum is relatively large. At the same time, the preprocessing procedures of spectrum are also not ideal, such as the wavelength calibration and the flow calibration. Therefore, there is a slight distortion of the spectrum. They result in the high difficulty of estimating the atmospheric parameters for the measured stellar spectra. It is one of the important issues to estimate the atmospheric parameters for the massive stellar spectra of LAMOST. The key of this study is how to eliminate noise and improve the accuracy and robustness of estimating the atmospheric parameters for the measured stellar spectra. We propose a regression model for estimating the atmospheric parameters of LAMOST stellar(SVM(lasso)). The basic idea of this model is: First, we use the Haar wavelet to filter spectrum, suppress the adverse effects of the spectral noise and retain the most discrimination information of spectrum. Secondly, We use the lasso algorithm for feature selection and extract the features of strongly correlating with the atmospheric parameters. Finally, the features are input to the support vector regression model for estimating the parameters. Because the model has better tolerance to the slight distortion and the noise of the spectrum, the accuracy of the measurement is improved. To evaluate the feasibility of the above scheme, we conduct experiments extensively on the 33 963 pilot surveys spectrums by LAMOST. The accuracy of three atmospheric parameters is log Teff: 0.006 8 dex, log g: 0.155 1 dex

General epidemiological parameters of viral hepatitis A, B, C, and E in six regions of China: a cross-sectional study in 2007.

PubMed

Lu, Jian; Zhou, Yongdong; Lin, Xiaojing; Jiang, Yongzhen; Tian, Ruiguang; Zhang, Yonghui; Wu, Jia; Zhang, Fengwei; Zhang, Yong; Wang, Yue; Bi, Shengli

2009-12-24

Viral hepatitis is a serious health burden worldwide. To date, few reports have addressed the prevalence of hepatitis A, B, C, and E in China. Therefore, the general epidemiological parameters of viral hepatitis remain unknown. In this cross-sectional study, we performed a serological prevalence analysis of viral hepatitis A, B, C, and E in 8,762 randomly selected Chinese subjects, which represented six areas of China. The overall prevalence of anti-Hepatitis C virus antibody (anti-HCV) was 0.58%, which was much lower than was estimated by WHO. The prevalences of Hepatitis B virus surface antigen (HBsAg), anti-Hepatitis B virus surface protein antibody (HBsAb), and anti-Hepatitis B virus core protein antibody (HBcAb) were 5.84%, 41.31%, and 35.92%, respectively, whereas in the group of subjects less than 5 years old, these prevalences were 1.16%, 46.77%, and 8.69% respectively, which suggests that the Hepatitis B virus (HBV)-carrier population is decreasing, and the nationwide HBV vaccine program has contributed to the lowered HBV prevalence in the younger generation in China. Meanwhile, a large deficit remains in coverage provided by the national HBV immune program. In addition, our data suggested the possibility that HBsAb may not last long enough to protect people from HBV infection throughout life. The overall prevalence of anti-Hepatitis A virus antibody (anti-HAV) and anti-Hepatitis E virus antibody (anti-HEV) were as high as 72.87% and 17.66%, respectively. The indices increased with age, which suggests that a large proportion of Chinese adults are protected by latent infection. Furthermore, the pattern of HEV infection was significantly different among ethnic groups in China. Our study provided much important information concerning hepatitis A, B, C, and E prevalence in China and will contribute to worldwide oversight of viral hepatitis.

The promise of molecular epidemiology in defining the association between radiation and cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Neta, R.

2000-07-01

Molecular epidemiology involves the inclusion in epidemiologic studies of biologic measurements made at a genetic and molecular level and aims to improve the current knowledge of disease etiology and risk. One of the goals of molecular epidemiology studies of cancer is to determine the role of environmental and genetic factors in initiation and progression of malignancies and to use this knowledge to develop preventive strategies. This approach promises extraordinary opportunities for revolutionizing the practice of medicine and reducing risk. However, this will be accompanied by the need to address and resolve many challenges, such as ensuring the appropriate interpretation ofmore » molecular testing and resolving associated ethical, legal, and social issues. Traditional epidemiologic approaches determined that exposure to ionizing radiation poses significantly increased risk of leukemia and several other types of cancer. Such studies provided the basis for setting exposure standards to protect the public and the workforce from potentially adverse effects of ionizing radiation. These standards were set by using modeling approaches to extrapolate from the biological effects observed in high-dose radiation studies to predicted, but mostly immeasurable, effects at low radiation doses. It is anticipated that the addition of the molecular parameters to the population-based studies will help identify the genes and pathways characteristic of cancers due to radiation exposure of individuals, as well as identify susceptible or resistant subpopulations. In turn, the information about the molecular mechanisms should aid to improve risk assessment. While studies on radiogenic concerns are currently limited to only a few candidate genes, the exponential growth of scientific knowledge and technology promises expansion of knowledge about identity of participating genes and pathways in the future. This article is meant to provide an introductory overview of recent advances in

Point prevalence and epidemiological characteristics of chronic cough in the general adult population

PubMed Central

Kang, Min-Gyu; Song, Woo-Jung; Kim, Hyun-Jung; Won, Ha-Kyeong; Sohn, Kyoung-Hee; Kang, Sung-Yoon; Jo, Eun-Jung; Kim, Min-Hye; Kim, Sae-Hoon; Kim, Sang-Heon; Park, Heung-Woo; Chang, Yoon-Seok; Lee, Byung-Jae; Morice, Alyn H.; Cho, Sang-Heon

2017-01-01

Abstract Cough is frequently self-limiting, but may persist longer in certain individuals. Most of previous studies on the epidemiology of chronic cough have only measured period prevalence, and thus have afforded limited information on the burden and natural course. We aimed to investigate the epidemiology of chronic cough by using a point prevalence measure in a large-scale general population. We analyzed cross-sectional data collected from 18,071 adults who participated in the Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2010–2012. Presence and duration of current cough was ascertained by structured questionnaires, and cough was classified into acute (<3 weeks), subacute (3–8 weeks), or chronic cough (≥8 weeks). Demographic and clinical parameters were examined in relation to chronic cough. The point prevalences of acute, subacute, and chronic cough were 2.5 ± 0.2%, 0.8 ± 0.1% and 2.6 ± 0.2%, respectively. The proportion of current cough showed a steep decrease after 1 week of duration. However, 2 peaks in the prevalence of current cough were revealed; cough durations of less than 1 week and longer than 1 year were most common (31.1% and 27.7% of current cough, respectively). Subacute and chronic cough were more prevalent in the elderly (≥65 years); the positive associations with older age were independent of other confounders, including current smoking and comorbidities. This is the first report on the epidemiology of cough using a point prevalence measure in a nationally representative population sample. Our findings indicate a high burden of chronic cough among adults with current cough in the community. The dual-peak of cough duration suggested that the pathophysiology of acute and chronic cough may differ. The preponderance of elderly people in the prevalence of chronic cough warrants further investigation. In addition, more sophistication and validation of tools to define chronic cough will help our understanding of the

Key aspects of cost effective collector and solar field design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Reeken, Finn; Nicodemo, Dario; Keck, Thomas; Weinrebe, Gerhard; Balz, Markus

2016-05-01