Efficient Geometric Probabilities of Multi-transiting Systems, Circumbinary Planets, and Exoplanet Mutual Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brakensiek, Joshua; Ragozzine, D.

2012-10-01

The transit method for discovering extra-solar planets relies on detecting regular diminutions of light from stars due to the shadows of planets passing in between the star and the observer. NASA's Kepler Mission has successfully discovered thousands of exoplanet candidates using this technique, including hundreds of stars with multiple transiting planets. In order to estimate the frequency of these valuable systems, our research concerns the efficient calculation of geometric probabilities for detecting multiple transiting extrasolar planets around the same parent star. In order to improve on previous studies that used numerical methods (e.g., Ragozzine & Holman 2010, Tremaine & Dong 2011), we have constructed an efficient, analytical algorithm which, given a collection of conjectured exoplanets orbiting a star, computes the probability that any particular group of exoplanets are transiting. The algorithm applies theorems of elementary differential geometry to compute the areas bounded by circular curves on the surface of a sphere (see Ragozzine & Holman 2010). The implemented algorithm is more accurate and orders of magnitude faster than previous algorithms, based on comparison with Monte Carlo simulations. Expanding this work, we have also developed semi-analytical methods for determining the frequency of exoplanet mutual events, i.e., the geometric probability two planets will transit each other (Planet-Planet Occultation) and the probability that this transit occurs simultaneously as they transit their star (Overlapping Double Transits; see Ragozzine & Holman 2010). The latter algorithm can also be applied to calculating the probability of observing transiting circumbinary planets (Doyle et al. 2011, Welsh et al. 2012). All of these algorithms have been coded in C and will be made publicly available. We will present and advertise these codes and illustrate their value for studying exoplanetary systems.

Multistate modeling of habitat dynamics: Factors affecting Florida scrub transition probabilities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Breininger, D.R.; Nichols, J.D.; Duncan, B.W.; Stolen, Eric D.; Carter, G.M.; Hunt, D.K.; Drese, J.H.

2010-01-01

Many ecosystems are influenced by disturbances that create specific successional states and habitat structures that species need to persist. Estimating transition probabilities between habitat states and modeling the factors that influence such transitions have many applications for investigating and managing disturbance-prone ecosystems. We identify the correspondence between multistate capture-recapture models and Markov models of habitat dynamics. We exploit this correspondence by fitting and comparing competing models of different ecological covariates affecting habitat transition probabilities in Florida scrub and flatwoods, a habitat important to many unique plants and animals. We subdivided a large scrub and flatwoods ecosystem along central Florida's Atlantic coast into 10-ha grid cells, which approximated average territory size of the threatened Florida Scrub-Jay (Aphelocoma coerulescens), a management indicator species. We used 1.0-m resolution aerial imagery for 1994, 1999, and 2004 to classify grid cells into four habitat quality states that were directly related to Florida Scrub-Jay source-sink dynamics and management decision making. Results showed that static site features related to fire propagation (vegetation type, edges) and temporally varying disturbances (fires, mechanical cutting) best explained transition probabilities. Results indicated that much of the scrub and flatwoods ecosystem was resistant to moving from a degraded state to a desired state without mechanical cutting, an expensive restoration tool. We used habitat models parameterized with the estimated transition probabilities to investigate the consequences of alternative management scenarios on future habitat dynamics. We recommend this multistate modeling approach as being broadly applicable for studying ecosystem, land cover, or habitat dynamics. The approach provides maximum-likelihood estimates of transition parameters, including precision measures, and can be used to assess

Transition probabilities of Ce I obtained from Boltzmann analysis of visible and near-infrared emission spectra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nitz, D. E.; Curry, J. J.; Buuck, M.; DeMann, A.; Mitchell, N.; Shull, W.

2018-02-01

We report radiative transition probabilities for 5029 emission lines of neutral cerium within the wavelength range 417-1110 nm. Transition probabilities for only 4% of these lines have been previously measured. These results are obtained from a Boltzmann analysis of two high resolution Fourier transform emission spectra used in previous studies of cerium, obtained from the digital archives of the National Solar Observatory at Kitt Peak. The set of transition probabilities used for the Boltzmann analysis are those published by Lawler et al (2010 J. Phys. B: At. Mol. Opt. Phys. 43 085701). Comparisons of branching ratios and transition probabilities for lines common to the two spectra provide important self-consistency checks and test for the presence of self-absorption effects. Estimated 1σ uncertainties for our transition probability results range from 10% to 18%.

Using optimal transport theory to estimate transition probabilities in metapopulation dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, Jonathan M.; Spendelow, Jeffrey A.; Nichols, James D.

2017-01-01

This work considers the estimation of transition probabilities associated with populations moving among multiple spatial locations based on numbers of individuals at each location at two points in time. The problem is generally underdetermined as there exists an extremely large number of ways in which individuals can move from one set of locations to another. A unique solution therefore requires a constraint. The theory of optimal transport provides such a constraint in the form of a cost function, to be minimized in expectation over the space of possible transition matrices. We demonstrate the optimal transport approach on marked bird data and compare to the probabilities obtained via maximum likelihood estimation based on marked individuals. It is shown that by choosing the squared Euclidean distance as the cost, the estimated transition probabilities compare favorably to those obtained via maximum likelihood with marked individuals. Other implications of this cost are discussed, including the ability to accurately interpolate the population's spatial distribution at unobserved points in time and the more general relationship between the cost and minimum transport energy.

Saliency Detection via Absorbing Markov Chain With Learnt Transition Probability.

PubMed

Lihe Zhang; Jianwu Ai; Bowen Jiang; Huchuan Lu; Xiukui Li

2018-02-01

In this paper, we propose a bottom-up saliency model based on absorbing Markov chain (AMC). First, a sparsely connected graph is constructed to capture the local context information of each node. All image boundary nodes and other nodes are, respectively, treated as the absorbing nodes and transient nodes in the absorbing Markov chain. Then, the expected number of times from each transient node to all other transient nodes can be used to represent the saliency value of this node. The absorbed time depends on the weights on the path and their spatial coordinates, which are completely encoded in the transition probability matrix. Considering the importance of this matrix, we adopt different hierarchies of deep features extracted from fully convolutional networks and learn a transition probability matrix, which is called learnt transition probability matrix. Although the performance is significantly promoted, salient objects are not uniformly highlighted very well. To solve this problem, an angular embedding technique is investigated to refine the saliency results. Based on pairwise local orderings, which are produced by the saliency maps of AMC and boundary maps, we rearrange the global orderings (saliency value) of all nodes. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the proposed algorithm outperforms the state-of-the-art methods on six publicly available benchmark data sets.

Location Prediction Based on Transition Probability Matrices Constructing from Sequential Rules for Spatial-Temporal K-Anonymity Dataset

PubMed Central

Liu, Zhao; Zhu, Yunhong; Wu, Chenxue

2016-01-01

Spatial-temporal k-anonymity has become a mainstream approach among techniques for protection of users’ privacy in location-based services (LBS) applications, and has been applied to several variants such as LBS snapshot queries and continuous queries. Analyzing large-scale spatial-temporal anonymity sets may benefit several LBS applications. In this paper, we propose two location prediction methods based on transition probability matrices constructing from sequential rules for spatial-temporal k-anonymity dataset. First, we define single-step sequential rules mined from sequential spatial-temporal k-anonymity datasets generated from continuous LBS queries for multiple users. We then construct transition probability matrices from mined single-step sequential rules, and normalize the transition probabilities in the transition matrices. Next, we regard a mobility model for an LBS requester as a stationary stochastic process and compute the n-step transition probability matrices by raising the normalized transition probability matrices to the power n. Furthermore, we propose two location prediction methods: rough prediction and accurate prediction. The former achieves the probabilities of arriving at target locations along simple paths those include only current locations, target locations and transition steps. By iteratively combining the probabilities for simple paths with n steps and the probabilities for detailed paths with n-1 steps, the latter method calculates transition probabilities for detailed paths with n steps from current locations to target locations. Finally, we conduct extensive experiments, and correctness and flexibility of our proposed algorithm have been verified. PMID:27508502

Statistic inversion of multi-zone transition probability models for aquifer characterization in alluvial fans

DOE PAGES

Zhu, Lin; Dai, Zhenxue; Gong, Huili; ...

2015-06-12

Understanding the heterogeneity arising from the complex architecture of sedimentary sequences in alluvial fans is challenging. This study develops a statistical inverse framework in a multi-zone transition probability approach for characterizing the heterogeneity in alluvial fans. An analytical solution of the transition probability matrix is used to define the statistical relationships among different hydrofacies and their mean lengths, integral scales, and volumetric proportions. A statistical inversion is conducted to identify the multi-zone transition probability models and estimate the optimal statistical parameters using the modified Gauss–Newton–Levenberg–Marquardt method. The Jacobian matrix is computed by the sensitivity equation method, which results in anmore » accurate inverse solution with quantification of parameter uncertainty. We use the Chaobai River alluvial fan in the Beijing Plain, China, as an example for elucidating the methodology of alluvial fan characterization. The alluvial fan is divided into three sediment zones. In each zone, the explicit mathematical formulations of the transition probability models are constructed with optimized different integral scales and volumetric proportions. The hydrofacies distributions in the three zones are simulated sequentially by the multi-zone transition probability-based indicator simulations. Finally, the result of this study provides the heterogeneous structure of the alluvial fan for further study of flow and transport simulations.« less

Tables of stark level transition probabilities and branching ratios in hydrogen-like atoms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Omidvar, K.

1980-01-01

The transition probabilities which are given in terms of n prime k prime and n k are tabulated. No additional summing or averaging is necessary. The electric quantum number k plays the role of the angular momentum quantum number l in the presence of an electric field. The branching ratios between stark levels are also tabulated. Necessary formulas for the transition probabilities and branching ratios are given. Symmetries are discussed and selection rules are given. Some disagreements for some branching ratios are found between the present calculation and the measurement of Mark and Wierl. The transition probability multiplied by the statistical weight of the initial state is called the static intensity J sub S, while the branching ratios are called the dynamic intensity J sub D.

Human Inferences about Sequences: A Minimal Transition Probability Model

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

The brain constantly infers the causes of the inputs it receives and uses these inferences to generate statistical expectations about future observations. Experimental evidence for these expectations and their violations include explicit reports, sequential effects on reaction times, and mismatch or surprise signals recorded in electrophysiology and functional MRI. Here, we explore the hypothesis that the brain acts as a near-optimal inference device that constantly attempts to infer the time-varying matrix of transition probabilities between the stimuli it receives, even when those stimuli are in fact fully unpredictable. This parsimonious Bayesian model, with a single free parameter, accounts for a broad range of findings on surprise signals, sequential effects and the perception of randomness. Notably, it explains the pervasive asymmetry between repetitions and alternations encountered in those studies. Our analysis suggests that a neural machinery for inferring transition probabilities lies at the core of human sequence knowledge. PMID:28030543

Reliability analysis of redundant systems. [a method to compute transition probabilities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yeh, H. Y.

1974-01-01

A method is proposed to compute the transition probability (the probability of partial or total failure) of parallel redundant system. The effect of geometry of the system, the direction of load, and the degree of redundancy on the probability of complete survival of parachute-like system are also studied. The results show that the probability of complete survival of three-member parachute-like system is very sensitive to the variation of horizontal angle of the load. However, it becomes very insignificant as the degree of redundancy increases.

Transition probabilities for general birth-death processes with applications in ecology, genetics, and evolution

PubMed Central

Crawford, Forrest W.; Suchard, Marc A.

2011-01-01

A birth-death process is a continuous-time Markov chain that counts the number of particles in a system over time. In the general process with n current particles, a new particle is born with instantaneous rate λn and a particle dies with instantaneous rate μn. Currently no robust and efficient method exists to evaluate the finite-time transition probabilities in a general birth-death process with arbitrary birth and death rates. In this paper, we first revisit the theory of continued fractions to obtain expressions for the Laplace transforms of these transition probabilities and make explicit an important derivation connecting transition probabilities and continued fractions. We then develop an efficient algorithm for computing these probabilities that analyzes the error associated with approximations in the method. We demonstrate that this error-controlled method agrees with known solutions and outperforms previous approaches to computing these probabilities. Finally, we apply our novel method to several important problems in ecology, evolution, and genetics. PMID:21984359

Continuum ionization transition probabilities of atomic oxygen

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Samson, J. A. R.; Petrosky, V. E.

1974-01-01

The technique of photoelectron spectroscopy was employed in the investigation. Atomic oxygen was produced in a microwave discharge operating at a power of 40 W and at a pressure of approximately 20 mtorr. The photoelectron spectrum of the oxygen with and without the discharge is shown. The atomic states can be clearly seen. In connection with the measurement of the probability for transitions into the various ionic states, the analyzer collection efficiency was determined as a function of electron energy.

Absolute Transition Probabilities of Lines in the Spectra of Astrophysical Atoms, Molecules, and Ions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parkinson, W. H.; Smith, P. L.; Yoshino, K.

1984-01-01

Progress in the investigation of absolute transition probabilities (A-values or F values) for ultraviolet lines is reported. A radio frequency ion trap was used for measurement of transition probabilities for intersystem lines seen in astronomical spectra. The intersystem line at 2670 A in Al II, which is seen in pre-main sequence stars and symbiotic stars, was studied.

Time-Varying Transition Probability Matrix Estimation and Its Application to Brand Share Analysis.

PubMed

Chiba, Tomoaki; Hino, Hideitsu; Akaho, Shotaro; Murata, Noboru

2017-01-01

In a product market or stock market, different products or stocks compete for the same consumers or purchasers. We propose a method to estimate the time-varying transition matrix of the product share using a multivariate time series of the product share. The method is based on the assumption that each of the observed time series of shares is a stationary distribution of the underlying Markov processes characterized by transition probability matrices. We estimate transition probability matrices for every observation under natural assumptions. We demonstrate, on a real-world dataset of the share of automobiles, that the proposed method can find intrinsic transition of shares. The resulting transition matrices reveal interesting phenomena, for example, the change in flows between TOYOTA group and GM group for the fiscal year where TOYOTA group's sales beat GM's sales, which is a reasonable scenario.

Suggestions for Teaching Mathematics Using Laboratory Approaches. 6. Probability. Experimental Edition.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

New York State Education Dept., Albany. Bureau of Elementary Curriculum Development.

This guide is the sixth in a series of publications to assist teachers in using a laboratory approach to mathematics. Twenty activities on probability and statistics for the elementary grades are described in terms of purpose, materials needed, and procedures to be used. Objectives of these activities include basic probability concepts; gathering,…

The FERRUM Project: Experimental Transition Probabilities of [Fe II] and Astrophysical Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hartman, H.; Derkatch, A.; Donnelly, M. P.; Gull, T.; Hibbert, A.; Johannsson, S.; Lundberg, H.; Mannervik, S.; Norlin, L. -O.; Rostohar, D.

2002-01-01

We report on experimental transition probabilities for thirteen forbidden [Fe II] lines originating from three different metastable Fe II levels. Radiative lifetimes have been measured of two metastable states by applying a laser probing technique on a stored ion beam. Branching ratios for the radiative decay channels, i.e. M1 and E2 transitions, are derived from observed intensity ratios of forbidden lines in astrophysical spectra and compared with theoretical data. The lifetimes and branching ratios are combined to derive absolute transition probabilities, A-values. We present the first experimental lifetime values for the two Fe II levels a(sup 4)G(sub 9/2) and b(sup 2)H(sub 11/2) and A-values for 13 forbidden transitions from a(sup 6)S(sub 5/2), a(sup 4)G(sub 9/2) and b(sup 4)D(sub 7/2) in the optical region. A discrepancy between the measured and calculated values of the lifetime for the b(sup 2)H(sub 11/2) level is discussed in terms of level mixing. We have used the code CIV3 to calculate transition probabilities of the a(sup 6)D-a(sup 6)S transitions. We have also studied observational branching ratios for lines from 5 other metastable Fe II levels and compared them to calculated values. A consistency in the deviation between calibrated observational intensity ratios and theoretical branching ratios for lines in a wider wavelength region supports the use of [Fe II] lines for determination of reddening.

Theoretical Study of Energy Levels and Transition Probabilities of Boron Atom

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian Yi, Zhang; Neng Wu, Zheng

2009-08-01

Full Text PDF Though the electrons configuration for boron atom is simple and boron atom has long been of interest for many researchers, the theoretical studies for properties of BI are not systematic, there are only few results reported on energy levels of high excited states of boron, and transition measurements are generally restricted to transitions involving ground states and low excited states without considering fine structure effects, provided only multiplet results, values for transitions between high excited states are seldom performed. In this article, by using the scheme of the weakest bound electron potential model theory calculations for energy levels of five series are performed and with the same method we give the transition probabilities between excited states with considering fine structure effects. The comprehensive set of calculations attempted in this paper could be of some value to workers in the field because of the lack of published calculations for the BI systems. The perturbations coming from foreign perturbers are taken into account in studying the energy levels. Good agreement between our results and the accepted values taken from NIST has been obtained. We also reported some values of energy levels and transition probabilities not existing on the NIST data bases.

Time-Varying Transition Probability Matrix Estimation and Its Application to Brand Share Analysis

PubMed Central

Chiba, Tomoaki; Akaho, Shotaro; Murata, Noboru

2017-01-01

In a product market or stock market, different products or stocks compete for the same consumers or purchasers. We propose a method to estimate the time-varying transition matrix of the product share using a multivariate time series of the product share. The method is based on the assumption that each of the observed time series of shares is a stationary distribution of the underlying Markov processes characterized by transition probability matrices. We estimate transition probability matrices for every observation under natural assumptions. We demonstrate, on a real-world dataset of the share of automobiles, that the proposed method can find intrinsic transition of shares. The resulting transition matrices reveal interesting phenomena, for example, the change in flows between TOYOTA group and GM group for the fiscal year where TOYOTA group’s sales beat GM’s sales, which is a reasonable scenario. PMID:28076383

Birth/birth-death processes and their computable transition probabilities with biological applications.

PubMed

Ho, Lam Si Tung; Xu, Jason; Crawford, Forrest W; Minin, Vladimir N; Suchard, Marc A

2018-03-01

Birth-death processes track the size of a univariate population, but many biological systems involve interaction between populations, necessitating models for two or more populations simultaneously. A lack of efficient methods for evaluating finite-time transition probabilities of bivariate processes, however, has restricted statistical inference in these models. Researchers rely on computationally expensive methods such as matrix exponentiation or Monte Carlo approximation, restricting likelihood-based inference to small systems, or indirect methods such as approximate Bayesian computation. In this paper, we introduce the birth/birth-death process, a tractable bivariate extension of the birth-death process, where rates are allowed to be nonlinear. We develop an efficient algorithm to calculate its transition probabilities using a continued fraction representation of their Laplace transforms. Next, we identify several exemplary models arising in molecular epidemiology, macro-parasite evolution, and infectious disease modeling that fall within this class, and demonstrate advantages of our proposed method over existing approaches to inference in these models. Notably, the ubiquitous stochastic susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) model falls within this class, and we emphasize that computable transition probabilities newly enable direct inference of parameters in the SIR model. We also propose a very fast method for approximating the transition probabilities under the SIR model via a novel branching process simplification, and compare it to the continued fraction representation method with application to the 17th century plague in Eyam. Although the two methods produce similar maximum a posteriori estimates, the branching process approximation fails to capture the correlation structure in the joint posterior distribution.

Forbidden transition probabilities for ground terms of ions with p or p5 configurations. [for solar atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kastner, S. O.

1976-01-01

Forbidden transition probabilities are given for ground term transitions of ions in the isoelectronic sequences with outer configurations 2s2 2p (B I), 2p5 (F I), 3s2 3p (Al I), and 3p5 (Cl I). Tables give, for each ion, the ground term interval, the associated wavelength, the quadrupole radial integral, the electric quadrupole transition probability, and the magnetic dipole transition probability. Coronal lines due to some of these ions have been observed, while others are yet to be observed. The tales for the Al I and Cl I sequences include elements up to germanium.

Reduced probabilities for E2 transitions between excited collective states of triaxial even–even nuclei

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nadyrbekov, M. S., E-mail: nodirbekov@inp.uz; Bozarov, O. A.

Reduced probabilities for intra- and interband E2 transitions in excited collective states of even–even lanthanide and actinide nuclei are analyzed on the basis of a model that admits an arbitrary triaxiality. They are studied in detail in the energy spectra of {sup 154}Sm, {sup 156}Gd, {sup 158}Dy, {sup 162,164}Er, {sup 230,232}Th, and {sup 232,234,236,238}U even–even nuclei. Theoretical and experimental values of the reduced probabilities for the respective E2 transitions are compared. This comparison shows good agreement for all states, including high-spin ones. The ratios of the reduced probabilities for the E2 transitions in question are compared with results following frommore » the Alaga rules. These comparisons make it possible to assess the sensitivity of the probabilities being considered to the presence of quadrupole deformations.« less

The transition probability and the probability for the left-most particle's position of the q-totally asymmetric zero range process

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Korhonen, Marko; Lee, Eunghyun

2014-01-15

We treat the N-particle zero range process whose jumping rates satisfy a certain condition. This condition is required to use the Bethe ansatz and the resulting model is the q-boson model by Sasamoto and Wadati [“Exact results for one-dimensional totally asymmetric diffusion models,” J. Phys. A 31, 6057–6071 (1998)] or the q-totally asymmetric zero range process (TAZRP) by Borodin and Corwin [“Macdonald processes,” Probab. Theory Relat. Fields (to be published)]. We find the explicit formula of the transition probability of the q-TAZRP via the Bethe ansatz. By using the transition probability we find the probability distribution of the left-most particle'smore » position at time t. To find the probability for the left-most particle's position we find a new identity corresponding to identity for the asymmetric simple exclusion process by Tracy and Widom [“Integral formulas for the asymmetric simple exclusion process,” Commun. Math. Phys. 279, 815–844 (2008)]. For the initial state that all particles occupy a single site, the probability distribution of the left-most particle's position at time t is represented by the contour integral of a determinant.« less

Investigating rare events with nonequilibrium work measurements. I. Nonequilibrium transition path probabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moradi, Mahmoud; Sagui, Celeste; Roland, Christopher

2014-01-01

We have developed a formalism for investigating transition pathways and transition probabilities for rare events in biomolecular systems. In this paper, we set the theoretical framework for employing nonequilibrium work relations to estimate the relative reaction rates associated with different classes of transition pathways. Particularly, we derive an extension of Crook's transient fluctuation theorem, which relates the relative transition rates of driven systems in the forward and reverse directions, and allows for the calculation of these relative rates using work measurements (e.g., in Steered Molecular Dynamics). The formalism presented here can be combined with Transition Path Theory to relate the equilibrium and driven transition rates. The usefulness of this framework is illustrated by means of a Gaussian model and a driven proline dimer.

Estimating state-transition probabilities for unobservable states using capture-recapture/resighting data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kendall, W.L.; Nichols, J.D.

2002-01-01

Temporary emigration was identified some time ago as causing potential problems in capture-recapture studies, and in the last five years approaches have been developed for dealing with special cases of this general problem. Temporary emigration can be viewed more generally as involving transitions to and from an unobservable state, and frequently the state itself is one of biological interest (e.g., 'nonbreeder'). Development of models that permit estimation of relevant parameters in the presence of an unobservable state requires either extra information (e.g., as supplied by Pollock's robust design) or the following classes of model constraints: reducing the order of Markovian transition probabilities, imposing a degree of determinism on transition probabilities, removing state specificity of survival probabilities, and imposing temporal constancy of parameters. The objective of the work described in this paper is to investigate estimability of model parameters under a variety of models that include an unobservable state. Beginning with a very general model and no extra information, we used numerical methods to systematically investigate the use of ancillary information and constraints to yield models that are useful for estimation. The result is a catalog of models for which estimation is possible. An example analysis of sea turtle capture-recapture data under two different models showed similar point estimates but increased precision for the model that incorporated ancillary data (the robust design) when compared to the model with deterministic transitions only. This comparison and the results of our numerical investigation of model structures lead to design suggestions for capture-recapture studies in the presence of an unobservable state.

Scale-Invariant Transition Probabilities in Free Word Association Trajectories

PubMed Central

Costa, Martin Elias; Bonomo, Flavia; Sigman, Mariano

2009-01-01

Free-word association has been used as a vehicle to understand the organization of human thoughts. The original studies relied mainly on qualitative assertions, yielding the widely intuitive notion that trajectories of word associations are structured, yet considerably more random than organized linguistic text. Here we set to determine a precise characterization of this space, generating a large number of word association trajectories in a web implemented game. We embedded the trajectories in the graph of word co-occurrences from a linguistic corpus. To constrain possible transport models we measured the memory loss and the cycling probability. These two measures could not be reconciled by a bounded diffusive model since the cycling probability was very high (16% of order-2 cycles) implying a majority of short-range associations whereas the memory loss was very rapid (converging to the asymptotic value in ∼7 steps) which, in turn, forced a high fraction of long-range associations. We show that memory loss and cycling probabilities of free word association trajectories can be simultaneously accounted by a model in which transitions are determined by a scale invariant probability distribution. PMID:19826622

Recursive recovery of Markov transition probabilities from boundary value data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Patch, Sarah Kathyrn

1994-04-01

In an effort to mathematically describe the anisotropic diffusion of infrared radiation in biological tissue Gruenbaum posed an anisotropic diffusion boundary value problem in 1989. In order to accommodate anisotropy, he discretized the temporal as well as the spatial domain. The probabilistic interpretation of the diffusion equation is retained; radiation is assumed to travel according to a random walk (of sorts). In this random walk the probabilities with which photons change direction depend upon their previous as well as present location. The forward problem gives boundary value data as a function of the Markov transition probabilities. The inverse problem requiresmore » finding the transition probabilities from boundary value data. Problems in the plane are studied carefully in this thesis. Consistency conditions amongst the data are derived. These conditions have two effects: they prohibit inversion of the forward map but permit smoothing of noisy data. Next, a recursive algorithm which yields a family of solutions to the inverse problem is detailed. This algorithm takes advantage of all independent data and generates a system of highly nonlinear algebraic equations. Pluecker-Grassmann relations are instrumental in simplifying the equations. The algorithm is used to solve the 4 x 4 problem. Finally, the smallest nontrivial problem in three dimensions, the 2 x 2 x 2 problem, is solved.« less

VizieR Online Data Catalog: KOI transit probabilities of multi-planet syst. (Brakensiek+, 2016)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brakensiek, J.; Ragozzine, D.

2016-06-01

Using CORBITS, we computed the transit probabilities of all the KOIs with at least three candidate or confirmed transiting planets and report the results in Table 2 for a variety of inclination distributions. See section 4.6. (1 data file).

Learning in Reverse: Eight-Month-Old Infants Track Backward Transitional Probabilities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pelucchi, Bruna; Hay, Jessica F.; Saffran, Jenny R.

2009-01-01

Numerous recent studies suggest that human learners, including both infants and adults, readily track sequential statistics computed between adjacent elements. One such statistic, transitional probability, is typically calculated as the likelihood that one element predicts another. However, little is known about whether listeners are sensitive to…

The reduced transition probabilities for excited states of rare-earths and actinide even-even nuclei

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ghumman, S. S.

The theoretical B(E2) ratios have been calculated on DF, DR and Krutov models. A simple method based on the work of Arima and Iachello is used to calculate the reduced transition probabilities within SU(3) limit of IBA-I framework. The reduced E2 transition probabilities from second excited states of rare-earths and actinide even–even nuclei calculated from experimental energies and intensities from recent data, have been found to compare better with those calculated on the Krutov model and the SU(3) limit of IBA than the DR and DF models.

Reduced transition probabilities along the yrast line in 166W

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sayǧı, B.; Joss, D. T.; Page, R. D.; Grahn, T.; Simpson, J.; O'Donnell, D.; Alharshan, G.; Auranen, K.; Bäck, T.; Boening, S.; Braunroth, T.; Carroll, R. J.; Cederwall, B.; Cullen, D. M.; Dewald, A.; Doncel, M.; Donosa, L.; Drummond, M. C.; Ertuǧral, F.; Ertürk, S.; Fransen, C.; Greenlees, P. T.; Hackstein, M.; Hauschild, K.; Herzan, A.; Jakobsson, U.; Jones, P. M.; Julin, R.; Juutinen, S.; Konki, J.; Kröll, T.; Labiche, M.; Lopez-Martens, A.; McPeake, C. G.; Moradi, F.; Möller, O.; Mustafa, M.; Nieminen, P.; Pakarinen, J.; Partanen, J.; Peura, P.; Procter, M.; Rahkila, P.; Rother, W.; Ruotsalainen, P.; Sandzelius, M.; Sarén, J.; Scholey, C.; Sorri, J.; Stolze, S.; Taylor, M. J.; Thornthwaite, A.; Uusitalo, J.

2017-08-01

Lifetimes of excited states in the yrast band of the neutron-deficient nuclide 166W have been measured utilizing the DPUNS plunger device at the target position of the JUROGAM II γ -ray spectrometer in conjunction with the RITU gas-filled separator and the GREAT focal-plane spectrometer. Excited states in 166W were populated in the 92Mo(78Kr,4 p ) reaction at a bombarding energy of 380 MeV. The measurements reveal a low value for the ratio of reduced transitions probabilities for the lowest-lying transitions B (E 2 ;4+→2+) /B (E 2 ;2+→0+) =0.33 (5 ) , compared with the expected ratio for an axially deformed rotor (B4 /2 = 1.43).

Impulsive synchronization of Markovian jumping randomly coupled neural networks with partly unknown transition probabilities via multiple integral approach.

PubMed

Chandrasekar, A; Rakkiyappan, R; Cao, Jinde

2015-10-01

This paper studies the impulsive synchronization of Markovian jumping randomly coupled neural networks with partly unknown transition probabilities via multiple integral approach. The array of neural networks are coupled in a random fashion which is governed by Bernoulli random variable. The aim of this paper is to obtain the synchronization criteria, which is suitable for both exactly known and partly unknown transition probabilities such that the coupled neural network is synchronized with mixed time-delay. The considered impulsive effects can be synchronized at partly unknown transition probabilities. Besides, a multiple integral approach is also proposed to strengthen the Markovian jumping randomly coupled neural networks with partly unknown transition probabilities. By making use of Kronecker product and some useful integral inequalities, a novel Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional was designed for handling the coupled neural network with mixed delay and then impulsive synchronization criteria are solvable in a set of linear matrix inequalities. Finally, numerical examples are presented to illustrate the effectiveness and advantages of the theoretical results. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of Contextual Predictability and Transitional Probability on Eye Movements During Reading

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Frisson, Steven; Rayner, Keith; Pickering, Martin J.

2005-01-01

In 2 eye-movement experiments, the authors tested whether transitional probability (the statistical likelihood that a word precedes or follows another word) affects reading times and whether this occurs independently from contextual predictability effects. Experiment 1 showed early effects of predictability, replicating S. A. McDonald and R. C.…

Predicting critical transitions in dynamical systems from time series using nonstationary probability density modeling.

PubMed

Kwasniok, Frank

2013-11-01

A time series analysis method for predicting the probability density of a dynamical system is proposed. A nonstationary parametric model of the probability density is estimated from data within a maximum likelihood framework and then extrapolated to forecast the future probability density and explore the system for critical transitions or tipping points. A full systematic account of parameter uncertainty is taken. The technique is generic, independent of the underlying dynamics of the system. The method is verified on simulated data and then applied to prediction of Arctic sea-ice extent.

Experimental transition probabilities for Mn II spectral lines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manrique, J.; Aguilera, J. A.; Aragón, C.

2018-06-01

Transition probabilities for 46 spectral lines of Mn II with wavelengths in the range 2000-3500 Å have been measured by CSigma laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (Cσ-LIBS). For 28 of the lines, experimental data had not been reported previously. The Cσ-LIBS method, based in the construction of generalized curves of growth called Cσ graphs, avoids the error due to self-absorption. The samples used to generate the laser-induced plasmas are fused glass disks prepared from pure MnO. The Mn concentrations in the samples and the lines included in the study are selected to ensure the validity of the model of homogeneous plasma used. The results are compared to experimental and theoretical values available in the literature.

Accurate potential energy curves, spectroscopic parameters, transition dipole moments, and transition probabilities of 21 low-lying states of the CO+ cation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xing, Wei; Shi, Deheng; Zhang, Jicai; Sun, Jinfeng; Zhu, Zunlue

2018-05-01

This paper calculates the potential energy curves of 21 Λ-S and 42 Ω states, which arise from the first two dissociation asymptotes of the CO+ cation. The calculations are conducted using the complete active space self-consistent field method, which is followed by the valence internally contracted multireference configuration interaction approach with the Davidson correction. To improve the reliability and accuracy of the potential energy curves, core-valence correlation and scalar relativistic corrections, as well as the extrapolation of potential energies to the complete basis set limit are taken into account. The spectroscopic parameters and vibrational levels are determined. The spin-orbit coupling effect on the spectroscopic parameters and vibrational levels is evaluated. To better study the transition probabilities, the transition dipole moments are computed. The Franck-Condon factors and Einstein coefficients of some emissions are calculated. The radiative lifetimes are determined for a number of vibrational levels of several states. The transitions between different Λ-S states are evaluated. Spectroscopic routines for observing these states are proposed. The spectroscopic parameters, vibrational levels, transition dipole moments, and transition probabilities reported in this paper can be considered to be very reliable and can be used as guidelines for detecting these states in an appropriate spectroscopy experiment, especially for the states that were very difficult to observe or were not detected in previous experiments.

Transitional probability-based model for HPV clearance in HIV-1-positive adolescent females.

PubMed

Kravchenko, Julia; Akushevich, Igor; Sudenga, Staci L; Wilson, Craig M; Levitan, Emily B; Shrestha, Sadeep

2012-01-01

HIV-1-positive patients clear the human papillomavirus (HPV) infection less frequently than HIV-1-negative. Datasets for estimating HPV clearance probability often have irregular measurements of HPV status and risk factors. A new transitional probability-based model for estimation of probability of HPV clearance was developed to fully incorporate information on HIV-1-related clinical data, such as CD4 counts, HIV-1 viral load (VL), highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART), and risk factors (measured quarterly), and HPV infection status (measured at 6-month intervals). Data from 266 HIV-1-positive and 134 at-risk HIV-1-negative adolescent females from the Reaching for Excellence in Adolescent Care and Health (REACH) cohort were used in this study. First, the associations were evaluated using the Cox proportional hazard model, and the variables that demonstrated significant effects on HPV clearance were included in transitional probability models. The new model established the efficacy of CD4 cell counts as a main clearance predictor for all type-specific HPV phylogenetic groups. The 3-month probability of HPV clearance in HIV-1-infected patients significantly increased with increasing CD4 counts for HPV16/16-like (p<0.001), HPV18/18-like (p<0.001), HPV56/56-like (p = 0.05), and low-risk HPV (p<0.001) phylogenetic groups, with the lowest probability found for HPV16/16-like infections (21.60±1.81% at CD4 level 200 cells/mm(3), p<0.05; and 28.03±1.47% at CD4 level 500 cells/mm(3)). HIV-1 VL was a significant predictor for clearance of low-risk HPV infections (p<0.05). HAART (with protease inhibitor) was significant predictor of probability of HPV16 clearance (p<0.05). HPV16/16-like and HPV18/18-like groups showed heterogeneity (p<0.05) in terms of how CD4 counts, HIV VL, and HAART affected probability of clearance of each HPV infection. This new model predicts the 3-month probability of HPV infection clearance based on CD4 cell counts and other HIV-1-related

Analysis of a semiclassical model for rotational transition probabilities. [in highly nonequilibrium flow of diatomic molecules

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Deiwert, G. S.; Yoshikawa, K. K.

1975-01-01

A semiclassical model proposed by Pearson and Hansen (1974) for computing collision-induced transition probabilities in diatomic molecules is tested by the direct-simulation Monte Carlo method. Specifically, this model is described by point centers of repulsion for collision dynamics, and the resulting classical trajectories are used in conjunction with the Schroedinger equation for a rigid-rotator harmonic oscillator to compute the rotational energy transition probabilities necessary to evaluate the rotation-translation exchange phenomena. It is assumed that a single, average energy spacing exists between the initial state and possible final states for a given collision.

Spectroscopic parameters, vibrational levels, transition dipole moments and transition probabilities of the 9 low-lying states of the NCl+ cation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Yuan; Shi, Deheng; Sun, Jinfeng; Zhu, Zunlue

2018-03-01

This work calculates the potential energy curves of 9 Λ-S and 28 Ω states of the NCl+ cation. The technique employed is the complete active space self-consistent field method, which is followed by the internally contracted multireference configuration interaction approach with the Davidson correction. The Λ-S states are X2Π, 12Σ+, 14Π, 14Σ+, 14Σ-, 24Π, 14Δ, 16Σ+, and 16Π, which are yielded from the first two dissociation channels of NCl+ cation. The Ω states are generated from these Λ-S states. The 14Π, 14Δ, 16Σ+, and 16Π states are inverted with the spin-orbit coupling effect included. The 14Σ+, 16Σ+, and 16Π states are very weakly bound, whose well depths are only several-hundred cm- 1. One avoided crossing of PECs occurs between the 12Σ+ and 22Σ+ states. To improve the quality of potential energy curves, core-valence correlation and scalar relativistic corrections are included. The potential energies are extrapolated to the complete basis set limit. The spectroscopic parameters and vibrational levels are calculated. The transition dipole moments are computed. The Franck-Condon factors, Einstein coefficients, and radiative lifetimes of many transitions are determined. The spectroscopic approaches are proposed for observing these states according to the transition probabilities. The spin-orbit coupling effect on the spectroscopic and vibrational properties is evaluated. The spectroscopic parameters, vibrational levels, transition dipole moments, as well as transition probabilities reported in this paper could be considered to be very reliable.

The Time Course of the Probability of Transition Into and Out of REM Sleep

PubMed Central

Bassi, Alejandro; Vivaldi, Ennio A.; Ocampo-Garcés, Adrián

2009-01-01

Study Objectives: A model of rapid eye movement (REM) sleep expression is proposed that assumes underlying regulatory mechanisms operating as inhomogenous Poisson processes, the overt results of which are the transitions into and out of REM sleep. Design: Based on spontaneously occurring REM sleep episodes (“Episode”) and intervals without REM sleep (“Interval”), 3 variables are defined and evaluated over discrete 15-second epochs using a nonlinear logistic regression method: “Propensity” is the instantaneous rate of into-REM transition occurrence throughout an Interval, “Volatility” is the instantaneous rate of out-of-REM transition occurrence throughout an Episode, and “Opportunity” is the probability of being in non-REM (NREM) sleep at a given time throughout an Interval, a requisite for transition. Setting: 12:12 light:dark cycle, isolated boxes. Participants: Sixteen male Sprague-Dawley rats Interventions: None. Spontaneous sleep cycles. Measurements and Results: The highest levels of volatility and propensity occur, respectively, at the very beginning of Episodes and Intervals. The new condition stabilizes rapidly, and variables reach nadirs at minute 1.25 and 2.50, respectively. Afterward, volatility increases markedly, reaching values close to the initial level. Propensity increases moderately, the increment being stronger through NREM sleep bouts occurring at the end of long Intervals. Short-term homeostasis is evidenced by longer REM sleep episodes lowering propensity in the following Interval. Conclusions: The stabilization after transitions into Episodes or Intervals and the destabilization after remaining for some time in either condition may be described as resulting from continuous processes building up during Episodes and Intervals. These processes underlie the overt occurrence of transitions. Citation: Bassi A; Vivaldi EA; Ocampo-Garcées A. The time course of the probability of transition into and out of REM sleep. SLEEP 2009

MRCI study on transition dipole moments and transition probabilities of 18 low-lying states of CP+ cation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Dan; Wang, Kedong; Li, Xue

2018-07-01

This study calculates the potential energy curves of 18 Λ-S and 50 Ω states, which arise from the C(3Pg) + P+(3Pg) dissociation channel of the CP+ cation. The calculations are made using the CASSCF method, followed by the icMRCI approach with the Davidson correction. Core-valence correlation and scalar relativistic corrections, as well as extrapolation to the complete basis set limit are included. The transition dipole moments are computed for 25 pairs of Λ-S states. The spin-orbit coupling effect on the spectroscopic and vibrational properties is evaluated. The Franck-Condon factors and Einstein coefficients of emissions are calculated. Radiative lifetimes are obtained for several vibrational levels of some states. The transitions are evaluated and spectroscopic measurement schemes for observing these Λ-S states are proposed. The potential energy curves, spectroscopic constants, vibrational levels, transition dipole moments, and transition probabilities reported in this paper can be considered to be very accurate and reliable. Because no experimental observations are currently available, the results obtained here can be used as guidelines for the detection of these states in appropriate spectroscopy experiments, in particular for observations in stellar atmospheres and in interstellar space.

scEpath: Energy landscape-based inference of transition probabilities and cellular trajectories from single-cell transcriptomic data.

PubMed

Jin, Suoqin; MacLean, Adam L; Peng, Tao; Nie, Qing

2018-02-05

Single-cell RNA-sequencing (scRNA-seq) offers unprecedented resolution for studying cellular decision-making processes. Robust inference of cell state transition paths and probabilities is an important yet challenging step in the analysis of these data. Here we present scEpath, an algorithm that calculates energy landscapes and probabilistic directed graphs in order to reconstruct developmental trajectories. We quantify the energy landscape using "single-cell energy" and distance-based measures, and find that the combination of these enables robust inference of the transition probabilities and lineage relationships between cell states. We also identify marker genes and gene expression patterns associated with cell state transitions. Our approach produces pseudotemporal orderings that are - in combination - more robust and accurate than current methods, and offers higher resolution dynamics of the cell state transitions, leading to new insight into key transition events during differentiation and development. Moreover, scEpath is robust to variation in the size of the input gene set, and is broadly unsupervised, requiring few parameters to be set by the user. Applications of scEpath led to the identification of a cell-cell communication network implicated in early human embryo development, and novel transcription factors important for myoblast differentiation. scEpath allows us to identify common and specific temporal dynamics and transcriptional factor programs along branched lineages, as well as the transition probabilities that control cell fates. A MATLAB package of scEpath is available at https://github.com/sqjin/scEpath. qnie@uci.edu. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press.

Quantum transition probabilities during a perturbing pulse: Differences between the nonadiabatic results and Fermi's golden rule forms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mandal, Anirban; Hunt, Katharine L. C.

2018-05-01

For a perturbed quantum system initially in the ground state, the coefficient ck(t) of excited state k in the time-dependent wave function separates into adiabatic and nonadiabatic terms. The adiabatic term ak(t) accounts for the adjustment of the original ground state to form the new ground state of the instantaneous Hamiltonian H(t), by incorporating excited states of the unperturbed Hamiltonian H0 without transitions; ak(t) follows the adiabatic theorem of Born and Fock. The nonadiabatic term bk(t) describes excitation into another quantum state k; bk(t) is obtained as an integral containing the time derivative of the perturbation. The true transition probability is given by |bk(t)|2, as first stated by Landau and Lifshitz. In this work, we contrast |bk(t)|2 and |ck(t)|2. The latter is the norm-square of the entire excited-state coefficient which is used for the transition probability within Fermi's golden rule. Calculations are performed for a perturbing pulse consisting of a cosine or sine wave in a Gaussian envelope. When the transition frequency ωk0 is on resonance with the frequency ω of the cosine wave, |bk(t)|2 and |ck(t)|2 rise almost monotonically to the same final value; the two are intertwined, but they are out of phase with each other. Off resonance (when ωk0 ≠ ω), |bk(t)|2 and |ck(t)|2 differ significantly during the pulse. They oscillate out of phase and reach different maxima but then fall off to equal final values after the pulse has ended, when ak(t) ≡ 0. If ωk0 < ω, |bk(t)|2 generally exceeds |ck(t)|2, while the opposite is true when ωk0 > ω. While the transition probability is rising, the midpoints between successive maxima and minima fit Gaussian functions of the form a exp[-b(t - d)2]. To our knowledge, this is the first analysis of nonadiabatic transition probabilities during a perturbing pulse.

Tables of Transition Probabilities and Branching Ratios for Electric Dipole Transitions Between Arbitrary Levels of Hydrogen-Like Atoms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Omidvar, K.

1980-01-01

Branching ratios in hydrogen-like atoms due to electric-dipole transitions are tabulated for the initial principal and angular momentum quantum number n, lambda, and final principal and angular momentum quantum numbers n, lambda. In table 1, transition probabilities are given for transitions n, lambda, yields n, where sums have been made with respect to lambda. In this table, 2 or = n' or = 10, o or = lambda' or = n'-1, and 1 or = n or = n'-1. In addition, averages with respect to lambda' and sums with respect to n, and lifetimes are given. In table 2, branching ratios are given for transitions n' lambda' yields ni, where sums have been made with respect to lambda. In these tables, 2 or = n' or = 10, 0 or = lambda', n'-1, and 1 or = n or = n'-1. Averages with respect to lambda' are also given. In table 3, branching ratios are given for transitions n' lambda' yields in lambda, where 1 or = n or = 5, 0 or = lambda or = n-1, n n' or = 15, and 0 or = lambda' or = n(s), where n(s), is the smaller of the two numbers n'-1 and 6. Averages with respect to lambda' are given.

Dipole moments and transition probabilities of the a 3Sigma(+)g - b 3Sigma(+)u system of molecular hydrogen

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Guberman, S.; Dalgarno, A.; Posen, A.; Kwok, T. L.

1986-01-01

Multiconfiguration variational calculations of the electronic wave functions of the a 3Sigma(+)g and b 3Sigma(+)u states of molecular hydrogen are presented, and the electric dipole transition moment between them (of interest in connection with stellar atmospheres and the UV spectrum of the Jovian planets) is obtained. The dipole moment is used to calculate the probabilities of radiative transitions from the discrete vibrational levels of the a 3Sigma(+)g state to the vibrational continuum of the repulsive b 3Sigma(+)u state as functions of the wavelength of the emitted photons. The total transition probabilities and radiative lifetimes of the levels v prime = 0-20 are presented.

Transition Probabilities of Emissions and Rotationless Radiative Lifetimes of Vibrational Levels for the PO Radical

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Yuan; Shi, Deheng; Sun, Jinfeng; Zhu, Zunlue

2018-06-01

This work investigates the transition dipole moments (TDMs) and transition probabilities of electric dipole emissions between the X2Π, B2Σ+, B‧2Π, D‧2Π, C2Σ‑, C‧2Δ, F2Σ+, and P2Π states of the PO radical. The TDMs of 23 pairs of states are calculated by the internally contracted multireference configuration method with the aug-cc-pV6Z basis set. The vibrational band origins, Franck–Condon factors, and Einstein coefficients of all the spontaneous emissions are evaluated. The rotationless radiative lifetimes of the vibrational levels are approximately 10‑7–10‑8 s for the B2Σ+, C2Σ‑, C‧2Δ, P2Π, and F2Σ+ states; 10‑4–10‑5 s for the B‧2Π state; and 10‑1–10‑2 s for the D‧2Π state. The Einstein coefficients of many emissions are large for the B2Σ+–X2Π, B‧2Π–X2Π, C‧2Δ–X2Π, C2Σ‑–X2Π, F2Σ+–X2Π, P2Π–X2Π, P2Π–B‧2Π, and P2Π–D‧2Π systems. Almost all the spontaneous emissions arising from the D‧2Π state are very weak. The vibrational band origins of these emissions extend from the UV into the far-infrared spectra. The radiative lifetimes and vibrational band origins are compared with available experimental and theoretical values. According to the radiative lifetimes and transition probabilities obtained in this paper, some guidelines for detecting these states spectroscopically are proposed. The TDMs and transition probabilities reported here are considered to be reliable and can be used as guidelines for detecting similar transitions, especially those in interstellar space.

Under the hood of statistical learning: A statistical MMN reflects the magnitude of transitional probabilities in auditory sequences.

PubMed

Koelsch, Stefan; Busch, Tobias; Jentschke, Sebastian; Rohrmeier, Martin

2016-02-02

Within the framework of statistical learning, many behavioural studies investigated the processing of unpredicted events. However, surprisingly few neurophysiological studies are available on this topic, and no statistical learning experiment has investigated electroencephalographic (EEG) correlates of processing events with different transition probabilities. We carried out an EEG study with a novel variant of the established statistical learning paradigm. Timbres were presented in isochronous sequences of triplets. The first two sounds of all triplets were equiprobable, while the third sound occurred with either low (10%), intermediate (30%), or high (60%) probability. Thus, the occurrence probability of the third item of each triplet (given the first two items) was varied. Compared to high-probability triplet endings, endings with low and intermediate probability elicited an early anterior negativity that had an onset around 100 ms and was maximal at around 180 ms. This effect was larger for events with low than for events with intermediate probability. Our results reveal that, when predictions are based on statistical learning, events that do not match a prediction evoke an early anterior negativity, with the amplitude of this mismatch response being inversely related to the probability of such events. Thus, we report a statistical mismatch negativity (sMMN) that reflects statistical learning of transitional probability distributions that go beyond auditory sensory memory capabilities.

Implicit Segmentation of a Stream of Syllables Based on Transitional Probabilities: An MEG Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Teinonen, Tuomas; Huotilainen, Minna

2012-01-01

Statistical segmentation of continuous speech, i.e., the ability to utilise transitional probabilities between syllables in order to detect word boundaries, is reflected in the brain's auditory event-related potentials (ERPs). The N1 and N400 ERP components are typically enhanced for word onsets compared to random syllables during active…

Theoretical transition probabilities, oscillator strengths, and radiative lifetimes of levels in Pb IV

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Alonso-Medina, A.; Colon, C., E-mail: cristobal.colon@upm.e; Porcher, P.

2011-01-15

Transition probabilities and oscillator strengths of 176 spectral lines with astrophysical interest arising from 5d{sup 10}ns (n = 7,8), 5d{sup 10}np (n = 6,7), 5d{sup 10}nd (n = 6,7), 5d{sup 10}5f, 5d{sup 10}5g, 5d{sup 10}nh (n = 6,7,8), 5d{sup 9}6s{sup 2}, and 5d{sup 9}6s6p configurations, and radiative lifetimes for 43 levels of Pb IV, have been calculated. These values were obtained in intermediate coupling (IC) and using relativistic Hartree-Fock calculations including core-polarization effects. For the IC calculations, we use the standard method of least-square fitting from experimental energy levels by means of the Cowan computer code. The inclusion in thesemore » calculations of the 5d{sup 10}7p and 5d{sup 10}5f configurations has facilitated a complete assignment of the energy levels in the Pb IV. Transition probabilities, oscillator strengths, and radiative lifetimes obtained are generally in good agreement with the experimental data.« less

Transition probability of the Si III 189.2-nm intersystem line

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kwong, H. S.; Johnson, B. C.; Smith, P. L.; Parkinson, W. H.

1983-01-01

Measurement of the lifetime of the metastable 3s3p(3)P(0)1 level of Si(2+) (Si III), which decays by photon emission at 189.2 nm to the 3s2(1)S0 state, is reported. The data were taken from spontaneous emission from metastable Si III stored in an RF ion trap. The Si III ions were produced through electron bombardment of SiH4 and SiF4 at pressures of 1/100,000,000-1/10,000,000 Torr. A photomultiplier was employed to count the photon emissions from the transitions. A total of 11 decay curves were generated for analysis, with Poisson statistics used to set the uncertainties at within 8 pct. Significant systematic effects were controlled, and the lifetime was found to be within 3.6 microsec of 59.9 microsec. The method used is concluded valid for determining the lifetimes of metastable levels of low-Z ions with low charge, and thereby the transition probabilities.

Critically Evaluated Energy Levels, Spectral Lines, Transition Probabilities, and Intensities of Singly Ionized Vanadium (V II)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saloman, Edward B.; Kramida, Alexander

2017-08-01

The energy levels, observed spectral lines, and transition probabilities of singly ionized vanadium, V II, have been compiled. The experimentally derived energy levels belong to the configurations 3d 4, 3d 3 ns (n = 4, 5, 6), 3d 3 np, and 3d 3 nd (n = 4, 5), 3d 34f, 3d 24s 2, and 3d 24s4p. Also included are values for some forbidden lines that may be of interest to the astrophysical community. Experimental Landé g-factors and leading percentages for the levels are included when available, as well as Ritz wavelengths calculated from the energy levels. Wavelengths and transition probabilities are reported for 3568 and 1896 transitions, respectively. From the list of observed wavelengths, 407 energy levels are determined. The observed intensities, normalized to a common scale, are provided. From the newly optimized energy levels, a revised value for the ionization energy is derived, 118,030(60) cm-1, corresponding to 14.634(7) eV. This is 130 cm-1 higher than the previously recommended value from Iglesias et al.

Current recommendations on the estimation of transition probabilities in Markov cohort models for use in health care decision-making: a targeted literature review.

PubMed

Olariu, Elena; Cadwell, Kevin K; Hancock, Elizabeth; Trueman, David; Chevrou-Severac, Helene

2017-01-01

Although Markov cohort models represent one of the most common forms of decision-analytic models used in health care decision-making, correct implementation of such models requires reliable estimation of transition probabilities. This study sought to identify consensus statements or guidelines that detail how such transition probability matrices should be estimated. A literature review was performed to identify relevant publications in the following databases: Medline, Embase, the Cochrane Library, and PubMed. Electronic searches were supplemented by manual-searches of health technology assessment (HTA) websites in Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Ireland, Norway, Portugal, Sweden, and the UK. One reviewer assessed studies for eligibility. Of the 1,931 citations identified in the electronic searches, no studies met the inclusion criteria for full-text review, and no guidelines on transition probabilities in Markov models were identified. Manual-searching of the websites of HTA agencies identified ten guidelines on economic evaluations (Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Ireland, Norway, Portugal, Sweden, and UK). All identified guidelines provided general guidance on how to develop economic models, but none provided guidance on the calculation of transition probabilities. One relevant publication was identified following review of the reference lists of HTA agency guidelines: the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research taskforce guidance. This provided limited guidance on the use of rates and probabilities. There is limited formal guidance available on the estimation of transition probabilities for use in decision-analytic models. Given the increasing importance of cost-effectiveness analysis in the decision-making processes of HTA bodies and other medical decision-makers, there is a need for additional guidance to inform a more consistent approach to decision-analytic modeling. Further research should be done to

Critically Evaluated Energy Levels, Spectral Lines, Transition Probabilities, and Intensities of Neutral Vanadium (V i)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Saloman, Edward B.; Kramida, Alexander

2017-08-01

The energy levels, observed spectral lines, and transition probabilities of the neutral vanadium atom, V i, have been compiled. Also included are values for some forbidden lines that may be of interest to the astrophysical community. Experimental Landé g -factors and leading percentage compositions for the levels are included where available, as well as wavelengths calculated from the energy levels (Ritz wavelengths). Wavelengths are reported for 3985 transitions, and 549 energy levels are determined. The observed relative intensities normalized to a common scale are provided.

On the use of the energy probability distribution zeros in the study of phase transitions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mól, L. A. S.; Rodrigues, R. G. M.; Stancioli, R. A.; Rocha, J. C. S.; Costa, B. V.

2018-04-01

This contribution is devoted to cover some technical aspects related to the use of the recently proposed energy probability distribution zeros in the study of phase transitions. This method is based on the partial knowledge of the partition function zeros and has been shown to be extremely efficient to precisely locate phase transition temperatures. It is based on an iterative method in such a way that the transition temperature can be approached at will. The iterative method will be detailed and some convergence issues that has been observed in its application to the 2D Ising model and to an artificial spin ice model will be shown, together with ways to circumvent them.

Genetic evaluation of mastitis liability and recovery through longitudinal analysis of transition probabilities

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Many methods for the genetic analysis of mastitis use a cross-sectional approach, which omits information on, e.g., repeated mastitis cases during lactation, somatic cell count fluctuations, and recovery process. Acknowledging the dynamic behavior of mastitis during lactation and taking into account that there is more than one binary response variable to consider, can enhance the genetic evaluation of mastitis. Methods Genetic evaluation of mastitis was carried out by modeling the dynamic nature of somatic cell count (SCC) within the lactation. The SCC patterns were captured by modeling transition probabilities between assumed states of mastitis and non-mastitis. A widely dispersed SCC pattern generates high transition probabilities between states and vice versa. This method can model transitions to and from states of infection simultaneously, i.e. both the mastitis liability and the recovery process are considered. A multilevel discrete time survival model was applied to estimate breeding values on simulated data with different dataset sizes, mastitis frequencies, and genetic correlations. Results Correlations between estimated and simulated breeding values showed that the estimated accuracies for mastitis liability were similar to those from previously tested methods that used data of confirmed mastitis cases, while our results were based on SCC as an indicator of mastitis. In addition, unlike the other methods, our method also generates breeding values for the recovery process. Conclusions The developed method provides an effective tool for the genetic evaluation of mastitis when considering the whole disease course and will contribute to improving the genetic evaluation of udder health. PMID:22475575

Solution to a gene divergence problem under arbitrary stable nucleotide transition probabilities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holmquist, R.

1976-01-01

A nucleic acid chain, L nucleotides in length, with the specific base sequence B(1)B(2) ... B(L) is defined by the L-dimensional vector B = (B(1), B(2), ..., B(L)). For twelve given constant non-negative transition probabilities that, in a specified position, the base B is replaced by the base B' in a single step, an exact analytical expression is derived for the probability that the position goes from base B to B' in X steps. Assuming that each base mutates independently of the others, an exact expression is derived for the probability that the initial gene sequence B goes to a sequence B' = (B'(1), B'(2), ..., B'(L)) after X = (X(1), X(2), ..., X(L)) base replacements. The resulting equations allow a more precise accounting for the effects of Darwinian natural selection in molecular evolution than does the idealized (biologically less accurate) assumption that each of the four nucleotides is equally likely to mutate to and be fixed as one of the other three. Illustrative applications of the theory to some problems of biological evolution are given.

Transition Analysis for the Mars Science Laboratory Entry Vehicle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chang, Chau-Lyan; Choudhari, Meelan M.; Hollis, Brian R.; Li, Fei

2009-01-01

Viscous Laminar-turbulent transition plays an important role in the design of the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) entry vehicle. The lift-to-drag ratio required for the precision landing trajectory will be achieved via an angle of attack equal to 16 degrees. At this relatively high angle of attack, the boundary layer flow near the leeward meridian is expected to transition early in the trajectory, resulting in substantially increased heating loads. This paper presents stability calculations and transition correlations for a series of wind tunnel models of the MSL vehicle. Experimentally measured transition onset locations are used to correlate with the N-factor calculations for various wind tunnel conditions. Due to relatively low post-shock Mach numbers near the edge of the boundary layer, the dominant instability waves are found to be of the first mode type. The N-factor values correlating with measured transition onset at selected test points from the Mach 6 conventional facility experiments fall between 3.5 and 4.5 and apparently vary linearly with the wind tunnel unit Reynolds number, indicating strong receptivity effect. The small transition N value is consistent with previous correlations for second-mode dominant transition in the same wind tunnel facility. Stability calculations for stationary and traveling crossflow instability waves in selected configurations indicate that an N value of 4 and 6, respectively, correlates reasonably well with transition onset discerned from one experimentally measured thermographic image.

Gap Filler Induced Transition on the Mars Science Laboratory Heatshield

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yoon, Seokkwan; Barnhardt, Michael D.; Tang, Chun Y.; Sozer, Emre; Candler, Graham

2012-01-01

Detached Eddy Simulations have been performed to investigate the effects of high-fidelity turbulence modeling on roughness-induced transition to turbulence during Mars entry. Chemically reacting flow solutions will be obtained for a gap filler of Mars Science Laboratory at the peak heating condition.

Survival modeling for the estimation of transition probabilities in model-based economic evaluations in the absence of individual patient data: a tutorial.

PubMed

Diaby, Vakaramoko; Adunlin, Georges; Montero, Alberto J

2014-02-01

Survival modeling techniques are increasingly being used as part of decision modeling for health economic evaluations. As many models are available, it is imperative for interested readers to know about the steps in selecting and using the most suitable ones. The objective of this paper is to propose a tutorial for the application of appropriate survival modeling techniques to estimate transition probabilities, for use in model-based economic evaluations, in the absence of individual patient data (IPD). An illustration of the use of the tutorial is provided based on the final progression-free survival (PFS) analysis of the BOLERO-2 trial in metastatic breast cancer (mBC). An algorithm was adopted from Guyot and colleagues, and was then run in the statistical package R to reconstruct IPD, based on the final PFS analysis of the BOLERO-2 trial. It should be emphasized that the reconstructed IPD represent an approximation of the original data. Afterwards, we fitted parametric models to the reconstructed IPD in the statistical package Stata. Both statistical and graphical tests were conducted to verify the relative and absolute validity of the findings. Finally, the equations for transition probabilities were derived using the general equation for transition probabilities used in model-based economic evaluations, and the parameters were estimated from fitted distributions. The results of the application of the tutorial suggest that the log-logistic model best fits the reconstructed data from the latest published Kaplan-Meier (KM) curves of the BOLERO-2 trial. Results from the regression analyses were confirmed graphically. An equation for transition probabilities was obtained for each arm of the BOLERO-2 trial. In this paper, a tutorial was proposed and used to estimate the transition probabilities for model-based economic evaluation, based on the results of the final PFS analysis of the BOLERO-2 trial in mBC. The results of our study can serve as a basis for any model

Numerical modeling of laboratory-scale surface-to-crown fire transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castle, Drew Clayton

Understanding the conditions leading to the transition of fire spread from a surface fuel to an elevated (crown) fuel is critical to effective fire risk assessment and management. Surface fires that successfully transition to crown fires can be very difficult to suppress, potentially leading to damages in the natural and built environments. This is relevant to chaparral shrub lands which are common throughout parts of the Southwest U.S. and represent a significant part of the wildland urban interface. The ability of the Wildland-Urban Interface Fire Dynamic Simulator (WFDS) to model surface-to-crown fire transition was evaluated through comparison to laboratory experiments. The WFDS model is being developed by the U.S. Forest Service (USFS) and the National Institute of Standards and Technology. The experiments were conducted at the USFS Forest Fire Laboratory in Riverside, California. The experiments measured the ignition of chamise (Adenostoma fasciculatum) crown fuel held above a surface fire spreading through excelsior fuel. Cases with different crown fuel bulk densities, crown fuel base heights, and imposed wind speeds were considered. Cold-flow simulations yielded wind speed profiles that closely matched the experimental measurements. Next, fire simulations with only the surface fuel were conducted to verify the rate of spread while factors such as substrate properties were varied. Finally, simulations with both a surface fuel and a crown fuel were completed. Examination of specific surface fire characteristics (rate of spread, flame angle, etc.) and the corresponding experimental surface fire behavior provided a basis for comparison of the factors most responsible for transition from a surface fire to the raised fuel ignition. The rate of spread was determined by tracking the flame in the Smokeview animations using a tool developed for tracking an actual flame in a video. WFDS simulations produced results in both surface fire spread and raised fuel bed

New Critical Compilations of Atomic Transition Probabilities for Neutral and Singly Ionized Carbon, Nitrogen, and Iron

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wiese, Wolfgang L.; Fuhr, J. R.

2006-01-01

We have undertaken new critical assessments and tabulations of the transition probabilities of important lines of these spectra. For Fe I and Fe II, we have carried out a complete re-assessment and update, and we have relied almost exclusively on the literature of the last 15 years. Our updates for C I, C II and N I, N II primarily address the persistent lower transitions as well as a greatly expanded number of forbidden lines (M1, M2, and E2). For these transitions, sophisticated multiconfiguration Hartree-Fock (MCHF) calculations have been recently carried out, which have yielded data considerably improved and often appreciably different from our 1996 NIST compilation.

Critically Evaluated Energy Levels, Spectral Lines, Transition Probabilities, and Intensities of Singly Ionized Vanadium (V ii)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Saloman, Edward B.; Kramida, Alexander

2017-08-01

The energy levels, observed spectral lines, and transition probabilities of singly ionized vanadium, V ii, have been compiled. The experimentally derived energy levels belong to the configurations 3 d {sup 4}, 3 d {sup 3} ns ( n  = 4, 5, 6), 3 d {sup 3} np , and 3 d {sup 3} nd ( n  = 4, 5), 3 d {sup 3}4 f , 3 d {sup 2}4 s {sup 2}, and 3 d {sup 2}4 s 4 p . Also included are values for some forbidden lines that may be of interest to the astrophysical community. Experimental Landé g -factorsmore » and leading percentages for the levels are included when available, as well as Ritz wavelengths calculated from the energy levels. Wavelengths and transition probabilities are reported for 3568 and 1896 transitions, respectively. From the list of observed wavelengths, 407 energy levels are determined. The observed intensities, normalized to a common scale, are provided. From the newly optimized energy levels, a revised value for the ionization energy is derived, 118,030(60) cm{sup −1}, corresponding to 14.634(7) eV. This is 130 cm{sup −1} higher than the previously recommended value from Iglesias et al.« less

Measuring change in health status of older adults at the population level: the transition probability model.

PubMed

Moineddin, Rahim; Nie, Jason X; Wang, Li; Tracy, C Shawn; Upshur, Ross E G

2010-11-09

The current demographic transition will lead to increasing demands on health services. However, debate exists as to the role age plays relative to co-morbidity in terms of health services utilization. While age has been identified as a critical factor in health services utilization, health services utilization is not simply an outcome of ill health, nor is it an inevitable outcome of aging. Most data on health service utilization studies assess utilization at one point in time, and does not examine transitions in health service utilization. We sought to measure health services utilization and to investigate patterns in the transition of levels of utilization and outcomes associated with different levels of utilization. We conducted a population-based retrospective cohort study of all Ontario residents aged 65+ eligible for public healthcare coverage from January 1998-December 2006. The main outcome measure was total number of utilization events. The total is computed by summing, on a per annum basis, the number of family physician visits, specialist visits, Emergency Department visits, drug claims, lab claims, X-rays, CT scans, MRI scans, and inpatient admissions. Three categories of utilization were created: low, moderate, and high. There is heterogeneity in health services utilization across the late lifespan. Utilization increased consistently in the 9-year study period. The probability of remaining at the high utilization category when the person was in the high category the previous year was more than 0.70 for both males and females and for all age groups. Overall healthcare utilization increases more rapidly among the high users compared to the low users. There was negligible probability for moving from high to low utilization category. Probability of death increased exponentially as age increased. Older adults in the low utilization category had the lowest probability of death. The number of male nonagenarians increased more rapidly than female nonagenarians

A Computational Model of Word Segmentation from Continuous Speech Using Transitional Probabilities of Atomic Acoustic Events

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rasanen, Okko

2011-01-01

Word segmentation from continuous speech is a difficult task that is faced by human infants when they start to learn their native language. Several studies indicate that infants might use several different cues to solve this problem, including intonation, linguistic stress, and transitional probabilities between subsequent speech sounds. In this…

Extensive computation of allowed and forbidden transition probabilities in the potassium isoelectronic sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dixit, Gopal; Deshmukh, Pranawa C.; Manson, Steven T.; Majumder, Sonjoy

2007-06-01

Our primary aim in this work is to present both allowed and forbidden transition amplitudes and corresponding wavelengths and oscillator strengths for a few ions in the 19-electron potassium isoelectronic sequence. All of these ions have the configuration [Ar] 3^2D3/2 as their ground state, except in the case of K and Ca^+, where it is [Ar] 4^2S1/2.This difference in ground state configuration arises due to strong contributions of correlation effects in the energy levels of these systems [1]. Allowed and forbidden transitions in these systems are of great importance in astrophysics [2] and in laboratory plasma research [3]. We apply in the present work the relativistic coupled-cluster (RCC) theory [4] to evaluate the energy levels and wave functions of these systems and study amplitudes for electric and magnetic dipole transition amplitudes and also the electric quadrupole transition amplitudes. The contributions of various electron correlation effects to the transition amplitudes are estimated in some detail using the RCC theory. [1] Gopal Dixit et al., Astrophys. J (submitted); arXiv.org: physics/0702066. [2] C. R. Cowley and G. M. Wahlgern, Astronomy & Astrophysics, 447, 681 (2002). [3] J. E. Vernazza, E. M. Reeves, Astrophys. J. Suppl. 37, 485 (1978) [4] I. Lindgren, Physics Scripta, 36, 591 (1987).

Emulating JWST Exoplanet Transit Observations in a Testbed laboratory experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Touli, D.; Beichman, C. A.; Vasisht, G.; Smith, R.; Krist, J. E.

2014-12-01

The transit technique is used for the detection and characterization of exoplanets. The combination of transit and radial velocity (RV) measurements gives information about a planet's radius and mass, respectively, leading to an estimate of the planet's density (Borucki et al. 2011) and therefore to its composition and evolutionary history. Transit spectroscopy can provide information on atmospheric composition and structure (Fortney et al. 2013). Spectroscopic observations of individual planets have revealed atomic and molecular species such as H2O, CO2 and CH4 in atmospheres of planets orbiting bright stars, e.g. Deming et al. (2013). The transit observations require extremely precise photometry. For instance, Jupiter transit results to a 1% brightness decrease of a solar type star while the Earth causes only a 0.0084% decrease (84 ppm). Spectroscopic measurements require still greater precision <30ppm. The Precision Projector Laboratory (PPL) is a collaboration between the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and California Institute of Technology (Caltech) to characterize and validate detectors through emulation of science images. At PPL we have developed a testbed to project simulated spectra and other images onto a HgCdTe array in order to assess precision photometry for transits, weak lensing etc. for Explorer concepts like JWST, WFIRST, EUCLID. In our controlled laboratory experiment, the goal is to demonstrate ability to extract weak transit spectra as expected for NIRCam, NIRIS and NIRSpec. Two lamps of variable intensity, along with spectral line and photometric simulation masks emulate the signals from a star-only, from a planet-only and finally, from a combination of a planet + star. Three masks have been used to simulate spectra in monochromatic light. These masks, which are fabricated at JPL, have a length of 1000 pixels and widths of 2 pixels, 10 pixels and 1 pixel to correspond respectively to the noted above JWST instruments. From many-hour long

Higher order Stark effect and transition probabilities on hyperfine structure components of hydrogen like atoms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pal'Chikov, V. G.

2000-08-01

A quantum-electrodynamical (QED) perturbation theory is developed for hydrogen and hydrogen-like atomic systems with interaction between bound electrons and radiative field being treated as the perturbation. The dependence of the perturbed energy of levels on hyperfine structure (hfs) effects and on the higher-order Stark effect is investigated. Numerical results have been obtained for the transition probability between the hfs components of hydrogen-like bismuth.

Measuring the Transition Temperature of a Superconductor in a Pre-University Laboratory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ireson, Gren

2006-01-01

This article presents the methodology and results for a simple approach to the measurement of the transition temperature of a superconducting material, in a pre-university laboratory session, using readily available apparatus (and some liquid nitrogen).

Methods for Estimating Kidney Disease Stage Transition Probabilities Using Electronic Medical Records

PubMed Central

Luo, Lola; Small, Dylan; Stewart, Walter F.; Roy, Jason A.

2013-01-01

Chronic diseases are often described by stages of severity. Clinical decisions about what to do are influenced by the stage, whether a patient is progressing, and the rate of progression. For chronic kidney disease (CKD), relatively little is known about the transition rates between stages. To address this, we used electronic health records (EHR) data on a large primary care population, which should have the advantage of having both sufficient follow-up time and sample size to reliably estimate transition rates for CKD. However, EHR data have some features that threaten the validity of any analysis. In particular, the timing and frequency of laboratory values and clinical measurements are not determined a priori by research investigators, but rather, depend on many factors, including the current health of the patient. We developed an approach for estimating CKD stage transition rates using hidden Markov models (HMMs), when the level of information and observation time vary among individuals. To estimate the HMMs in a computationally manageable way, we used a “discretization” method to transform daily data into intervals of 30 days, 90 days, or 180 days. We assessed the accuracy and computation time of this method via simulation studies. We also used simulations to study the effect of informative observation times on the estimated transition rates. Our simulation results showed good performance of the method, even when missing data are non-ignorable. We applied the methods to EHR data from over 60,000 primary care patients who have chronic kidney disease (stage 2 and above). We estimated transition rates between six underlying disease states. The results were similar for men and women. PMID:25848580

Transit probabilities for debris around white dwarfs in Kepler/K2 up to C13

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewis, John Arban; Johnson, John Asher

2018-01-01

WD 1145+017 (Vanderburg et al. 2015), a metal-polluted white dwarf with an infrared-excess and transits confirmed the long held theory that at least some metal-polluted white dwarfs are actively accreting material from crushed up planetesimals. A statistical understanding of WD 1145-like systems would inform us on the various pathways for metal-pollution and the end states of planetary systems around medium- to high-mass stars. At present, there is a single example. We study all white dwarfs observed during the K2 mission to identify white dwarfs with either transits or light curve features similar to WD 1145+017. We correct for contamination using J.J. Hermes' list of high probability white dwarfs (available at k2wd.org ).

A Procedure for Deriving Formulas to Convert Transition Rates to Probabilities for Multistate Markov Models.

PubMed

Jones, Edmund; Epstein, David; García-Mochón, Leticia

2017-10-01

For health-economic analyses that use multistate Markov models, it is often necessary to convert from transition rates to transition probabilities, and for probabilistic sensitivity analysis and other purposes it is useful to have explicit algebraic formulas for these conversions, to avoid having to resort to numerical methods. However, if there are four or more states then the formulas can be extremely complicated. These calculations can be made using packages such as R, but many analysts and other stakeholders still prefer to use spreadsheets for these decision models. We describe a procedure for deriving formulas that use intermediate variables so that each individual formula is reasonably simple. Once the formulas have been derived, the calculations can be performed in Excel or similar software. The procedure is illustrated by several examples and we discuss how to use a computer algebra system to assist with it. The procedure works in a wide variety of scenarios but cannot be employed when there are several backward transitions and the characteristic equation has no algebraic solution, or when the eigenvalues of the transition rate matrix are very close to each other.

Energy levels, oscillator strengths, and transition probabilities for sulfur-like scandium, Sc VI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El-Maaref, A. A.; Abou Halaka, M. M.; Saddeek, Yasser B.

2017-09-01

Energy levels, Oscillator strengths, and transition probabilities for sulfur-like scandium are calculated using CIV3 code. The calculations have been executed in an intermediate coupling scheme using Breit-Pauli Hamiltonian. The present calculations have been compared with the experimental data and other theoretical calculations. LANL code has been used to confirm the accuracy of the present calculations, where the calculations using CIV3 code agree well with the corresponding values by LANL code. The calculated energy levels and oscillator strengths are in reasonable agreement with the published experimental data and theoretical values. We have calculated lifetimes of some excited levels, as well.

Transition probabilities in neutron-rich Se,8280 and the role of the ν g9 /2 orbital

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Litzinger, J.; Blazhev, A.; Dewald, A.; Didierjean, F.; Duchêne, G.; Fransen, C.; Lozeva, R.; Verney, D.; de Angelis, G.; Bazzacco, D.; Birkenbach, B.; Bottoni, S.; Bracco, A.; Braunroth, T.; Cederwall, B.; Corradi, L.; Crespi, F. C. L.; Désesquelles, P.; Eberth, J.; Ellinger, E.; Farnea, E.; Fioretto, E.; Gernhäuser, R.; Goasduff, A.; Görgen, A.; Gottardo, A.; Grebosz, J.; Hackstein, M.; Hess, H.; Ibrahim, F.; Jolie, J.; Jungclaus, A.; Kolos, K.; Korten, W.; Leoni, S.; Lunardi, S.; Maj, A.; Menegazzo, R.; Mengoni, D.; Michelagnoli, C.; Mijatovic, T.; Million, B.; Möller, O.; Modamio, V.; Montagnoli, G.; Montanari, D.; Morales, A. I.; Napoli, D. R.; Niikura, M.; Pietralla, N.; Pollarolo, G.; Pullia, A.; Quintana, B.; Recchia, F.; Reiter, P.; Rosso, D.; Sahin, E.; Salsac, M. D.; Scarlassara, F.; Söderström, P.-A.; Stefanini, A. M.; Stezowski, O.; Szilner, S.; Theisen, Ch.; Valiente-Dobón, J. J.; Vandone, V.; Vogt, A.

2018-04-01

Transition probabilities of intermediate-spin yrast and non-yrast excitations in Se,8280 were investigated in a recoil distance Doppler-shift (RDDS) experiment performed at the Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, Laboratori Nazionali di Legnaro. The Cologne Plunger device for deep inelastic scattering was used for the RDDS technique and was combined with the AGATA Demonstrator array for the γ -ray detection and coupled to the PRISMA magnetic spectrometer for an event-by-event particle identification. In 80Se, the level lifetimes of the yrast (61+) and (81+) states and of a non-yrast band feeding the yrast 41+ state are determined. A spin and parity assignment of the head of this sideband is discussed based on the experimental results and supported by large-scale shell-model calculations. In 82Se, the level lifetimes of the yrast 61+ state and the yrare 42+ state and lifetime limits of the yrast (101+) state and of the 51- state are determined. Although the experimental results contain large uncertainties, they are interpreted with care in terms of large-scale shell-model calculations using the effective interactions JUN45 and jj44b. The excited states' wave functions are investigated and discussed with respect to the role of the neutron g9 /2 orbital.

The re-incarnation, re-interpretation and re-demise of the transition probability model.

PubMed

Koch, A L

1999-05-28

There are two classes of models for the cell cycle that have both a deterministic and a stochastic part; they are the transition probability (TP) models and sloppy size control (SSC) models. The hallmark of the basic TP model are two graphs: the alpha and beta plots. The former is the semi-logarithmic plot of the percentage of cell divisions yet to occur, this results in a horizontal line segment at 100% corresponding to the deterministic phase and a straight line sloping tail corresponding to the stochastic part. The beta plot concerns the differences of the age-at-division of sisters (the beta curve) and gives a straight line parallel to the tail of the alpha curve. For the SC models the deterministic part is the time needed for the cell to accumulate a critical amount of some substance(s). The variable part differs in the various variants of the general model, but they do not give alpha and beta curves with linear tails as postulated by the TP model. This paper argues against TP and for an elaboration of SSC type of model. The main argument against TP is that it assumes that the probability of the transition from the stochastic phase is time invariant even though it is certain that the cells are growing and metabolizing throughout the cell cycle; a fact that should make the transition probability be variable. The SSC models presume that cell division is triggered by the cell's success in growing and not simply the result of elapsed time. The extended model proposed here to accommodate the predictions of the SSC to the straight tailed parts of the alpha and beta plots depends on the existence of a few percent of the cell in a growing culture that are not growing normally, these are growing much slower or are temporarily quiescent. The bulk of the cells, however, grow nearly exponentially. Evidence for a slow growing component comes from experimental analyses of population size distributions for a variety of cell types by the Collins-Richmond technique. These

Transition probabilities for non self-adjoint Hamiltonians in infinite dimensional Hilbert spaces

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bagarello, F., E-mail: fabio.bagarello@unipa.it

In a recent paper we have introduced several possible inequivalent descriptions of the dynamics and of the transition probabilities of a quantum system when its Hamiltonian is not self-adjoint. Our analysis was carried out in finite dimensional Hilbert spaces. This is useful, but quite restrictive since many physically relevant quantum systems live in infinite dimensional Hilbert spaces. In this paper we consider this situation, and we discuss some applications to well known models, introduced in the literature in recent years: the extended harmonic oscillator, the Swanson model and a generalized version of the Landau levels Hamiltonian. Not surprisingly we willmore » find new interesting features not previously found in finite dimensional Hilbert spaces, useful for a deeper comprehension of this kind of physical systems.« less

Avoided crossings: A study of the nonadiabatic transition probabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Desouter-Lecomte, M.; Leyh-Nihant, B.; Praet, M. T.; Lorquet, J. C.

1987-06-01

An approximate solution to the problem of constructing a pair of diabatic states exists only if certain requirements are fulfilled, for example, when the nonadiabatic coupling results from an interaction between two electronic configurations which are doubly excited with respect to one another. It is then possible to build up a model in which the series expansion of the elements of the Hamiltonian matrix is truncated after the first nonzero term. This leads to several conclusions concerning the nonadiabatic transition probability which differentiate conical intersections from avoided crossings. For the latter, the nonadiabatic coupling matrix elements (which are Lorentzians with an area equal to π/2) reach their maximum at the nuclear geometry for which ΔE (the energy gap between adiabatic surfaces) is a minimum. The loci along which the angle θ of the orthogonal transformation which relates adiabatic and diabatic wave functions keeps a constant value are a set of parallel straight lines which coincides with the loci along which ΔE remains constant. This reference direction in the configuration space corresponds to nuclear trajectories which are unable to bring about a nonadiabatic transition. In the case of avoided crossings, there exists only one nuclear degree of freedom which gives rise to surface hopping. Conical intersections, on the other hand, have two such active degrees of freedom. This creates a qualitative difference between the two cases which makes conical intersections more efficient as funnels than avoided crossings. A two-dimensional extension of the Landau-Zener formula is derived for avoided crossings. It contains a factor of anisotropy. It is possible, at least in favorable cases, to extract approximate diabatic quantities from ab initio calculations and to compare them with the predictions of these models. This has been done for two 2A1 electronic states of the CH+2 ion. The results are found to agree with the predictions of the model, at

MRCI study on the spectroscopic parameters, transition dipole moments and transition probabilities of 16 low-lying states of the BeB radical

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Dan; Shi, Deheng; Sun, Jinfeng; Zhu, Zunlue

2018-03-01

In this work, we calculate the potential energy curves of 16 Λ-S and 36 Ω states of beryllium boride (BeB) radical using the complete active space self-consistent field method, followed by the valence internally contracted multireference configuration interaction approach with Davidson correction. The 16 Λ-S states are the X2Π, A2Σ+, B2Π, C2Δ, D2Ʃ-, E2Σ+, G2Π, I2Σ+, a4Σ-, b4Π, c4Σ-, d4Δ, e4Σ+, g4Π, h4Π, and 24Σ+, which are obtained from the first three dissociation channels of the BeB radical. The Ω states are obtained from the Λ-S states. Of the Λ-S states, the G2Π, I2Σ+, and h4Π states exhibit double well curves. The G2Π, b4Π, and g4Π states are inverted with the spin-orbit coupling effect included. The d4Δ, e4Σ+, and g4Π states as well as the second well of the h4Π state are very weakly bound. Avoided crossings exist between the G2Π and H2Π states, the A2Σ+ and E2Σ+ states, the c4Σ- and f4Σ- states, the g4Π and h4Π states, the I2Σ+ and 42Σ+ states, as well as the 24Σ+ and 34Σ+ states. To improve the quality of the potential energy curves, core-valence correlation and scalar relativistic corrections, as well as the extrapolation of the potential energies to the complete basis set limit, are included. The transition dipole moments are computed. Spectroscopic parameters and vibrational levels are determined along with Franck-Condon factors, Einstein coefficients, and radiative lifetimes of many electronic transitions. The transition probabilities are evaluated. The spin-orbit coupling effect on the spectroscopic parameters and vibrational levels is discussed. The spectroscopic parameters, vibrational levels, and transition probabilities reported in this paper can be considered very reliable and can be employed to predict these states in an appropriate spectroscopy experiment.

VizieR Online Data Catalog: Transition probabilities in TeII + TeIII spectra (Zhang+, 2013)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, W.; Palmeri, P.; Quinet, P.; Biemont, E.

2013-02-01

Computed weighted oscillator strengths (loggf) and transition probabilities (gA) for Te II (Table 8) and Te III (Table 9). Transitions with wavelengths <1um, loggf>-1 and CF>0.05 are only quoted. Air wavelengths are given above 200 nm. In Table 8 the levels are taken from Kamida et al (Kamida, A., Ralchenko, Yu., Reader, J., and NIST ASD Team (2012). NIST Atomic Spectra Database (ver. 5.0), [Online]. Available: http://physics.nist.gov/asd [2012, September 20]. National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg, MD.). In Table 9 the levels are those given in Tauheed & Naz (Tauheed, A., Naz, A. 2011, Journal of the Korean Physical Society 59, 2910) with the exceptions of the 5p6p levels which were taken from Kramida et al. The wavelengths were computed from the experimental levels of Kramida et al and Tauheed & Naz. (2 data files).

Relations between the single-pass and double-pass transition probabilities in quantum systems with two and three states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vitanov, Nikolay V.

2018-05-01

In the experimental determination of the population transfer efficiency between discrete states of a coherently driven quantum system it is often inconvenient to measure the population of the target state. Instead, after the interaction that transfers the population from the initial state to the target state, a second interaction is applied which brings the system back to the initial state, the population of which is easy to measure and normalize. If the transition probability is p in the forward process, then classical intuition suggests that the probability to return to the initial state after the backward process should be p2. However, this classical expectation is generally misleading because it neglects interference effects. This paper presents a rigorous theoretical analysis based on the SU(2) and SU(3) symmetries of the propagators describing the evolution of quantum systems with two and three states, resulting in explicit analytic formulas that link the two-step probabilities to the single-step ones. Explicit examples are given with the popular techniques of rapid adiabatic passage and stimulated Raman adiabatic passage. The present results suggest that quantum-mechanical probabilities degrade faster in repeated processes than classical probabilities. Therefore, the actual single-pass efficiencies in various experiments, calculated from double-pass probabilities, might have been greater than the reported values.

Peculiarities of high-overtone transition probabilities in carbon monoxide revealed by high-precision calculation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Medvedev, Emile S., E-mail: esmedved@orc.ru; Meshkov, Vladimir V.; Stolyarov, Andrey V.

In the recent work devoted to the calculation of the rovibrational line list of the CO molecule [G. Li et al., Astrophys. J., Suppl. Ser. 216, 15 (2015)], rigorous validation of the calculated parameters including intensities was carried out. In particular, the Normal Intensity Distribution Law (NIDL) [E. S. Medvedev, J. Chem. Phys. 137, 174307 (2012)] was employed for the validation purposes, and it was found that, in the original CO line list calculated for large changes of the vibrational quantum number up to Δn = 41, intensities with Δn > 11 were unphysical. Therefore, very high overtone transitions weremore » removed from the published list in Li et al. Here, we show how this type of validation is carried out and prove that the quadruple precision is indispensably required to predict the reliable intensities using the conventional 32-bit computers. Based on these calculations, the NIDL is shown to hold up for the 0 → n transitions till the dissociation limit around n = 83, covering 45 orders of magnitude in the intensity. The low-intensity 0 → n transition predicted in the work of Medvedev [Determination of a new molecular constant for diatomic systems. Normal intensity distribution law for overtone spectra of diatomic and polyatomic molecules and anomalies in overtone absorption spectra of diatomic molecules, Institute of Chemical Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Chernogolovka, 1984] at n = 5 is confirmed, and two additional “abnormal” intensities are found at n = 14 and 23. Criteria for the appearance of such “anomalies” are formulated. The results could be useful to revise the high-overtone molecular transition probabilities provided in spectroscopic databases.« less

Solar wind charge exchange in laboratory - Observation of forbidden X-ray transitions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Numadate, Naoki; Shimaya, Hirofumi; Ishida, Takuya; Okada, Kunihiro; Nakamura, Nobuyuki; Tanuma, Hajime

2017-10-01

We have reproduced solar wind charge exchange collisions of hydrogen-like O7+ ions with He gas at collision energies of 42 keV in the laboratory and observed the forbidden transition of 1s21S0 -1s2s 3S1 in helium-like O6+ ions produced by single electron capture. The measured soft X-ray spectrum had a peak at 560 eV which corresponds to the energy of the forbidden 1s21S0 -1s2s 3S1 transition in the O6+ ion, and a reasonable energy difference between peak positions of the forbidden and resonance lines was found, which ensured that we succeeded in observing the forbidden transition of O6+ ions. The dominant electron capture level in the collision of O7+ ions with He can be estimated to be a principal quantum number n = 4 by the classical over barrier model and the two-center atomic orbital close coupling method. After the charge exchange, the population of the 1s2s state becomes large due to cascade transitions from the higher excited states, so the long-lived forbidden transition to the 1s21S0 ground state is one of main features observed in the charge exchange spectra.

Formula for the Transition Probability Induced by Long-range Potential Terms Varying as R-8 and R-10 for Atom-dimer Collisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matthews, N. F.; Robson, D.; Grant, M. A.

1990-12-01

An explicit formula is derived for the transition probability between two different states of the atom-dimer collisional system governed by second-order long-range interaction potential terms varying as R-8 and R-10.

Hyperfine induced transition probabilities from 4{f}^{14}5s5p{}^{3}{{\\rm{P}}}_{0,2}^{o} states in Sm-like ions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Fuyang; Li, Jiguang; Qu, Yizhi; Wang, Jianguo

2017-11-01

The hyperfine induced 4{f}145s5p{}3{{{P}}}0,2o-4{f}145{s}2{}1{{{S}}}0 transition probabilities for highly charged Sm-like ions are calculated within the framework of the multiconfiguration Dirac-Hartree-Fock method. Electron correlation, the Breit interaction and quantum electrodynamical effects are taken into account. For ions ranging from Z = 79 to Z=94,4{f}145s5p{}3{{{P}}}0o is the first excited state, and the hyperfine induced transition (HIT) is a dominant decay channel. For the 4{f}145s5p{}3{{{P}}}2o state, the HIT rates of Sm-like ions with Z=82-94 are reported as well as the magnetic dipole (M1) {}3{{{P}}}2o-{}3{{{P}}}1o, the electric quadrupole (E2) {}3{{{P}}}2o-{}3{{{P}}}0,1o, and the magnetic quadrupole (M2) {}3{{{P}}}2o-{}1{{{S}}}0 transition probabilities. It is found that M1 transition from the 4{f}145s5p{}3{{{P}}}2o state is the most important decay channel in this range on Z≥slant 82.

Probable Zika virus-associated Guillain-Barré syndrome: Challenges with clinico-laboratory diagnosis.

PubMed

Miller, Eliza; Becker, Zoe; Shalev, Daniel; Lee, Christopher T; Cioroiu, Comana; Thakur, Kiran

2017-04-15

A 55year old woman in New York City presented in May 2016 with progressive weakness, ataxia, paresthesia, and areflexia, shortly after returning from the Dominican Republic. Lumbar puncture revealed cytoalbuminological dissociation. Due to her recent travel, Zika-associated Guillain Barré syndrome (GBS) was suspected and she underwent evaluation for recent flavivirus exposure. Zika virus RNA was not detected in serum, but Zika virus immunoglobulin M (IgM) was detected in both serum and cerebrospinal fluid. Dengue virus IgM in serum was equivocal and dengue virus IgG was detected in the serum. Plaque-reduction neutralization testing showed elevated titers to both Zika virus and dengue virus, providing evidence of recent infection with a flavivirus. The patient was diagnosed with probable Zika virus-associated GBS based on clinical findings, ancillary testing, and laboratory assays according to current guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists. Zika virus transmission in the Americas is resulting in increasing numbers of patients presenting with Zika virus-associated neurological syndromes. Clinical and laboratory diagnosis in these cases can be challenging and may be aided by consultation with CDC, and state and local public health agencies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Exact transition probabilities for a linear sweep through a Kramers-Kronig resonance

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sun, Chen; Sinitsyn, Nikolai A.

2015-11-19

We consider a localized electronic spin controlled by a circularly polarized optical beam and an external magnetic field. When the frequency of the beam is tuned near an optical resonance with a continuum of higher energy states, effective magnetic fields are induced on the two-level system via the inverse Faraday effect. We explore the process in which the frequency of the beam is made linearly time-dependent so that it sweeps through the optical resonance, starting and ending at the values far away from it. In addition to changes of spin states, Kramers-Kronig relations guarantee that a localized electron can alsomore » escape into a continuum of states. We argue that probabilities of transitions between different possible electronic states after such a sweep of the optical frequency can be found exactly, regardless the shape of the resonance. In conclusion, we also discuss extension of our results to multistate systems.« less

Wavelengths, Transition Probabilities, and Energy Levels for the Spectra of Strontium Ions (Sr II through Sr XXXVIII)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sansonetti, J. E.

2012-03-01

Energy levels, with designations and uncertainties, have been compiled for the spectra of strontium (Z=38) ions from singly ionized to hydrogen-like. Wavelengths with classifications, intensities, and transition probabilities are also tabulated. In addition, ground states and ionization energies are listed. For many ionization stages experimental data are available; however for those for which only theoretical calculations or fitted values exist, these are reported. There are a few ionization stages for which only a calculated ionization potential is available.

Measurement of the transition probability of the C III 190.9 nanometer intersystem line

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kwong, Victor H. S.; Fang, Z.; Gibbons, T. T.; Parkinson, W. H.; Smith, Peter L.

1993-01-01

A radio-frequency ion trap has been used to store C(2+) ions created by electron bombardment of CO. The transition probability for the 2s2p 3Po1-2s2 1S0 intersystem line of C m has been measured by recording the radiative decay at 190.9 nm. The measured A-value is 121 +/- 7/s and agrees, within mutual uncertainty limits, with that of Laughlin et al. (1978), but is 20 percent larger than that of Nussbaumer and Storey (1978). The effective collision mixing rate coefficient among the fine structure levels of 3Po and the combined quenching and charge transfer rate coefficients out of the 3Po1 level with the CO source gas have also been measured.

Association of multiple ischemic strokes with mortality in incident hemodialysis patients: an application of multistate model to determine transition probabilities in a retrospective observational cohort.

PubMed

Wetmore, James B; Mahnken, Jonathan D; Phadnis, Milind A

2016-09-21

Little is known about the effect of multiple, or subsequent, ischemic strokes in patients receiving hemodialysis. We undertook a retrospective cohort study of incident hemodialysis patients with Medicare coverage who had experienced a first ischemic stroke. Factors associated with either a subsequent ischemic stroke or death following a first new stroke were modeled. A multistate model with Cox proportional hazards was used to predict transition probabilities from first ischemic stroke to either subsequent stroke or to death, and the demographic and clinical factors associated with the respective transition probabilities were determined. Effect of a subsequent ischemic stroke on survival was quantified. Overall, 12,054 individuals (mean age 69.7 years, 41.3 % male, 53.0 % Caucasian and 34.0 % African-American) experienced a first new ischemic stroke. Female sex was associated with an increased risk of having a subsequent ischemic stroke (adjusted hazard ratio 1.37, 95 % confidence intervals 1.20 - 1.56, P < 0.0001); African-Americans, as compared to Caucasians, had lower likelihood of dying after a first new ischemic stroke (0.81, 0.77 - 0.85, P < 0.0001). A subsequent stroke trended towards having a higher likelihood of transitioning to death compared to a first new ischemic stroke on dialysis (1.72, 0.96 - 3.09, P = 0.071). When a subsequent ischemic stroke occurs at 24 months, probability of survival dropped >15 %, in absolute terms, from 0.254 to 0.096, with substantial drops observed at subsequent time points such that the probability of survival was more than halved. Likelihood of subsequent ischemic stroke and of survival in hemodialysis patients appears to vary by sex and race: females are more likely than males to experience a subsequent ischemic stroke, and Caucasians are more likely than African-Americans to die after a first new ischemic stroke. The risk of a transitioning to a subsequent stroke (after having had a first) increases

Laboratory studies in ultraviolet solar physics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parkinson, W. H.; Kohl, J. L.; Gardner, L. D.; Raymond, J. C.; Smith, P. L.

1991-01-01

The research activity comprised the measurement of basic atomic processes and parameters which relate directly to the interpretation of solar ultraviolet observations and to the development of comprehensive models of the component structures of the solar atmosphere. The research was specifically directed towards providing the relevant atomic data needed to perform and to improve solar diagnostic techniques which probe active and quiet portions of the solar chromosphere, the transition zone, the inner corona, and the solar wind acceleration regions of the extended corona. The accuracy with which the physical conditions in these structures can be determined depends directly on the accuracy and completeness of the atomic and molecular data. These laboratory data are used to support the analysis programs of past and current solar observations (e.g., the Orbiting solar Observatories, the Solar Maximum Mission, the Skylab Apollo Telescope Mount, and the Naval Research Laboratory's rocket-borne High Resolution Telescope and Spectrograph). In addition, we attempted to anticipate the needs of future space-borne solar studies such as from the joint ESA/NASA Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) spacecraft. Our laboratory activities stressed two categories of study: (1) the measurement of absolute rate coefficients for dielectronic recombination and electron impact excitation; and (2) the measurement of atomic transition probabilities for solar density diagnostics. A brief summary of the research activity is provided.

X-ray natural widths, level widths and Coster-Kronig transition probabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papp, T.; Campbell, J. L.; Varga, D.

1997-01-01

A critical review is given for the K-N7 atomic level widths. The experimental level widths were collected from x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), x-ray emission spectroscopy (XES), x-ray spectra fluoresced by synchrotron radiation, and photoelectrons from x-ray absorption (PAX). There are only limited atomic number ranges for a few atomic levels where data are available from more than one source. Generally the experimental level widths have large scatter compared to the reported error bars. The experimental data are compared with the recent tabulation of Perkins et al. and of Ohno et al. Ohno et al. performed a many body approach calculation for limited atomic number ranges and have obtained reasonable agreement with the experimental data. Perkins et al. presented a tabulation covering the K-Q1 shells of all atoms, based on extensions of the Scofield calculations for radiative rates and extensions of the Chen calculations for non-radiative rates. The experimental data are in disagreement with this tabulation, in excess of a factor of two in some cases. A short introduction to the experimental Coster-Kronig transition probabilities is presented. It is our opinion that the different experimental approaches result in systematically different experimental data.

Anticipating abrupt shifts in temporal evolution of probability of eruption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rohmer, J.; Loschetter, A.

2016-04-01

Estimating the probability of eruption by jointly accounting for different sources of monitoring parameters over time is a key component for volcano risk management. In the present study, we are interested in the transition from a state of low-to-moderate probability value to a state of high probability value. By using the data of MESIMEX exercise at the Vesuvius volcano, we investigated the potential for time-varying indicators related to the correlation structure or to the variability of the probability time series for detecting in advance this critical transition. We found that changes in the power spectra and in the standard deviation estimated over a rolling time window both present an abrupt increase, which marks the approaching shift. Our numerical experiments revealed that the transition from an eruption probability of 10-15% to > 70% could be identified up to 1-3 h in advance. This additional lead time could be useful to place different key services (e.g., emergency services for vulnerable groups, commandeering additional transportation means, etc.) on a higher level of alert before the actual call for evacuation.

Correlations for Boundary-Layer Transition on Mars Science Laboratory Entry Vehicle Due to Heat-Shield Cavities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hollis, Brian R.; Liechty, Derek S.

2008-01-01

The influence of cavities (for attachment bolts) on the heat-shield of the proposed Mars Science Laboratory entry vehicle has been investigated experimentally and computationally in order to develop a criterion for assessing whether the boundary layer becomes turbulent downstream of the cavity. Wind tunnel tests were conducted on the 70-deg sphere-cone vehicle geometry with various cavity sizes and locations in order to assess their influence on convective heating and boundary layer transition. Heat-transfer coefficients and boundary-layer states (laminar, transitional, or turbulent) were determined using global phosphor thermography.

Transitioning glass-ceramic scintillators for diagnostic x-ray imaging from the laboratory to commercial scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beckert, M. Brooke; Gallego, Sabrina; Elder, Eric; Nadler, Jason

2016-10-01

This study sought to mitigate risk in transitioning newly developed glass-ceramic scintillator technology from a laboratory concept to commercial product by identifying the most significant hurdles to increased scale. These included selection of cost effective raw material sources, investigation of process parameters with the most significant impact on performance, and synthesis steps that could see the greatest benefit from participation of an industry partner that specializes in glass or optical component manufacturing. Efforts focused on enhancing the performance of glass-ceramic nanocomposite scintillators developed specifically for medical imaging via composition and process modifications that ensured efficient capture of incident X-ray energy and emission of scintillation light. The use of cost effective raw materials and existing manufacturing methods demonstrated proof-of-concept for economical viable alternatives to existing benchmark materials, as well as possible disruptive applications afforded by novel geometries and comparatively lower cost per volume. The authors now seek the expertise of industry to effectively navigate the transition from laboratory demonstrations to pilot scale production and testing to evince the industry of the viability and usefulness of composite-based scintillators.

Energy levels, wavelengths, and radiative transition probabilities for the Na-like ions with 38 [le] Z [le] 45

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ying Zhang; Qiren Zhu; Shoufu Pan

1992-11-01

The investigation by Z.-Q Zhang et al. (Acta Optica Sinica 11, 193, 1991) shows that it is possible to realize soft X-ray lasing in the water window 23.3-43.8 [Angstrom] with the Na-like recombination scheme, which requires a lower pumping power at a high-power laser facility than that with other schemes. The fine-structure levels with n [le] 15 and l [le] 6 in Na-like ions with 38 [le] Z [le] 45 and the probabilities for radiative transitions between these levels are calculated using the multiconfiguration Dirac-Fock approach. The calculations show that the wavelengths of the anticipated laser transitions 6 f-4d andmore » 6g-4f in the Na-like ions with 38 [le] Z [le] 43 and 5f-4d and 5g-4f in the Na-like ions with 40 [le] Z [le] 45 lie in the region of the water window.« less

Time varying moments, regime switch, and crisis warning: The birth-death process with changing transition probability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Yinan; Chen, Ping

2014-06-01

The sub-prime crisis in the U.S. reveals the limitation of diversification strategy based on mean-variance analysis. A regime switch and a turning point can be observed using a high moment representation and time-dependent transition probability. Up-down price movements are induced by interactions among agents, which can be described by the birth-death (BD) process. Financial instability is visible by dramatically increasing 3rd to 5th moments one-quarter before and during the crisis. The sudden rising high moments provide effective warning signals of a regime-switch or a coming crisis. The critical condition of a market breakdown can be identified from nonlinear stochastic dynamics. The master equation approach of population dynamics provides a unified theory of a calm and turbulent market.

Accurate Laboratory Measurements of Vibration-Rotation Transitions of 36ArH^+ and 38ArH+

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cueto, Maite; Cernicharo, Jose; Herrero, Victor Jose; Tanarro, Isabel; Domenech, Jose Luis

2014-06-01

The protonated Ar ion 36ArH^+ has recently been identified in space, in the Crab Nebula, from Herschel spectra. Its R(0) and R(1) transitions lie at 617.5 and 1234.6 GHz, respectively, where atmospheric transmission is rather poor, even for a site as good as that of ALMA. As an alternative, especially after the end of the Herschel mission, rovibrational transitions of ArH^+ could be observed in absorption against bright background sources such as the galactic center, or other objects. We report on accurate laboratory wavenumber measurements of 19 lines of the v=1-0 band of 36ArH^+ and 38ArH^+, using a hollow cathode discharge cell, a difference frequency laser spectrometer and Ar with natural isotopic composition. Of those lines, only eight had been reported before and with much less accuracy. The data have also been used in a Dunham-type global fit of all published laboratory data (IR and sub-mm) of all isotopologues. Barlow et al., Science, 342, 1343 (2013) R.R. Filgueira and C.E. Blom, J. Mol. Spectrosc., 127, 279 (1988) M. Cueto et al, Astrophys. J. Lett, 783, L5 (2014)

Laboratory submillimeter transition frequencies of Li-7H and Li-6H. [used for abundance investigations in red giant stars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Plummer, G. M.; Herbst, E.; De Lucia, F. C.

1984-01-01

The fundamental (J = 1 - 0) rotational transition frequencies of Li-7H and Li-6H in their ground (v = 0) vibrational states and of Li-7H in its first excited (v = 1) vibrational state have been measured in the laboratory. Use of these transition frequencies should permit astronomical investigations of LiH abundances in red giant stars of high lithium abundance.

An Alignment-Free Algorithm in Comparing the Similarity of Protein Sequences Based on Pseudo-Markov Transition Probabilities among Amino Acids

PubMed Central

Li, Yushuang; Yang, Jiasheng; Zhang, Yi

2016-01-01

In this paper, we have proposed a novel alignment-free method for comparing the similarity of protein sequences. We first encode a protein sequence into a 440 dimensional feature vector consisting of a 400 dimensional Pseudo-Markov transition probability vector among the 20 amino acids, a 20 dimensional content ratio vector, and a 20 dimensional position ratio vector of the amino acids in the sequence. By evaluating the Euclidean distances among the representing vectors, we compare the similarity of protein sequences. We then apply this method into the ND5 dataset consisting of the ND5 protein sequences of 9 species, and the F10 and G11 datasets representing two of the xylanases containing glycoside hydrolase families, i.e., families 10 and 11. As a result, our method achieves a correlation coefficient of 0.962 with the canonical protein sequence aligner ClustalW in the ND5 dataset, much higher than those of other 5 popular alignment-free methods. In addition, we successfully separate the xylanases sequences in the F10 family and the G11 family and illustrate that the F10 family is more heat stable than the G11 family, consistent with a few previous studies. Moreover, we prove mathematically an identity equation involving the Pseudo-Markov transition probability vector and the amino acids content ratio vector. PMID:27918587

Effects of Word Frequency and Transitional Probability on Word Reading Durations of Younger and Older Speakers.

PubMed

Moers, Cornelia; Meyer, Antje; Janse, Esther

2017-06-01

High-frequency units are usually processed faster than low-frequency units in language comprehension and language production. Frequency effects have been shown for words as well as word combinations. Word co-occurrence effects can be operationalized in terms of transitional probability (TP). TPs reflect how probable a word is, conditioned by its right or left neighbouring word. This corpus study investigates whether three different age groups-younger children (8-12 years), adolescents (12-18 years) and older (62-95 years) Dutch speakers-show frequency and TP context effects on spoken word durations in reading aloud, and whether age groups differ in the size of these effects. Results show consistent effects of TP on word durations for all age groups. Thus, TP seems to influence the processing of words in context, beyond the well-established effect of word frequency, across the entire age range. However, the study also indicates that age groups differ in the size of TP effects, with older adults having smaller TP effects than adolescent readers. Our results show that probabilistic reduction effects in reading aloud may at least partly stem from contextual facilitation that leads to faster reading times in skilled readers, as well as in young language learners.

On helium-like 1s2l-1snl prime transitions in solar flare spectra

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kastner, S. O.; Neupert, W. M.; Swartz, M.

1974-01-01

Expected wavelengths and intensities are computed for 1s2l-1snl prime transitions in helium-like ions of the abundant elements from oxygen to iron under coronal conditions. Probable observations of some of these lines in the spectra of solar flares are discussed, and attention is called to a possible reversal of singlet and triplet intensities as compared to laboratory observations.

Transitional probabilities count more than frequency, but might not be used for memorization.

PubMed

Endress, Ansgar D; Langus, Alan

2017-02-01

Learners often need to extract recurring items from continuous sequences, in both vision and audition. The best-known example is probably found in word-learning, where listeners have to determine where words start and end in fluent speech. This could be achieved through universal and experience-independent statistical mechanisms, for example by relying on Transitional Probabilities (TPs). Further, these mechanisms might allow learners to store items in memory. However, previous investigations have yielded conflicting evidence as to whether a sensitivity to TPs is diagnostic of the memorization of recurring items. Here, we address this issue in the visual modality. Participants were familiarized with a continuous sequence of visual items (i.e., arbitrary or everyday symbols), and then had to choose between (i) high-TP items that appeared in the sequence, (ii) high-TP items that did not appear in the sequence, and (iii) low-TP items that appeared in the sequence. Items matched in TPs but differing in (chunk) frequency were much harder to discriminate than items differing in TPs (with no significant sensitivity to chunk frequency), and learners preferred unattested high-TP items over attested low-TP items. Contrary to previous claims, these results cannot be explained on the basis of the similarity of the test items. Learners thus weigh within-item TPs higher than the frequency of the chunks, even when the TP differences are relatively subtle. We argue that these results are problematic for distributional clustering mechanisms that analyze continuous sequences, and provide supporting computational results. We suggest that the role of TPs might not be to memorize items per se, but rather to prepare learners to memorize recurring items once they are presented in subsequent learning situations with richer cues. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Transition probability-based stochastic geological modeling using airborne geophysical data and borehole data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Xin; Koch, Julian; Sonnenborg, Torben O.; Jørgensen, Flemming; Schamper, Cyril; Christian Refsgaard, Jens

2014-04-01

Geological heterogeneity is a very important factor to consider when developing geological models for hydrological purposes. Using statistically based stochastic geological simulations, the spatial heterogeneity in such models can be accounted for. However, various types of uncertainties are associated with both the geostatistical method and the observation data. In the present study, TProGS is used as the geostatistical modeling tool to simulate structural heterogeneity for glacial deposits in a head water catchment in Denmark. The focus is on how the observation data uncertainty can be incorporated in the stochastic simulation process. The study uses two types of observation data: borehole data and airborne geophysical data. It is commonly acknowledged that the density of the borehole data is usually too sparse to characterize the horizontal heterogeneity. The use of geophysical data gives an unprecedented opportunity to obtain high-resolution information and thus to identify geostatistical properties more accurately especially in the horizontal direction. However, since such data are not a direct measurement of the lithology, larger uncertainty of point estimates can be expected as compared to the use of borehole data. We have proposed a histogram probability matching method in order to link the information on resistivity to hydrofacies, while considering the data uncertainty at the same time. Transition probabilities and Markov Chain models are established using the transformed geophysical data. It is shown that such transformation is in fact practical; however, the cutoff value for dividing the resistivity data into facies is difficult to determine. The simulated geological realizations indicate significant differences of spatial structure depending on the type of conditioning data selected. It is to our knowledge the first time that grid-to-grid airborne geophysical data including the data uncertainty are used in conditional geostatistical simulations in TPro

Parents' and Teachers' Reflections on the Process of Daily Transitions in an Infant and Toddler Laboratory School

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Traum, Linda C.; Moran, Mary Jane

2016-01-01

This qualitative study considered values, beliefs, perspectives, and meanings of 7 parents and 3 teachers within the context of daily home-to-child care transitions in one infant-toddler center in an early childhood laboratory school. Sociocultural and attachment theories anchored the study and the developmental niche framework informed…

Sleep Stage Transition Dynamics Reveal Specific Stage 2 Vulnerability in Insomnia.

PubMed

Wei, Yishul; Colombo, Michele A; Ramautar, Jennifer R; Blanken, Tessa F; van der Werf, Ysbrand D; Spiegelhalder, Kai; Feige, Bernd; Riemann, Dieter; Van Someren, Eus J W

2017-09-01

Objective sleep impairments in insomnia disorder (ID) are insufficiently understood. The present study evaluated whether whole-night sleep stage dynamics derived from polysomnography (PSG) differ between people with ID and matched controls and whether sleep stage dynamic features discriminate them better than conventional sleep parameters. Eighty-eight participants aged 21-70 years, including 46 with ID and 42 age- and sex-matched controls without sleep complaints, were recruited through www.sleepregistry.nl and completed two nights of laboratory PSG. Data of 100 people with ID and 100 age- and sex-matched controls from a previously reported study were used to validate the generalizability of findings. The second night was used to obtain, in addition to conventional sleep parameters, probabilities of transitions between stages and bout duration distributions of each stage. Group differences were evaluated with nonparametric tests. People with ID showed higher empirical probabilities to transition from stage N2 to the lighter sleep stage N1 or wakefulness and a faster decaying stage N2 bout survival function. The increased transition probability from stage N2 to stage N1 discriminated people with ID better than any of their deviations in conventional sleep parameters, including less total sleep time, less sleep efficiency, more stage N1, and more wake after sleep onset. Moreover, adding this transition probability significantly improved the discriminating power of a multiple logistic regression model based on conventional sleep parameters. Quantification of sleep stage dynamics revealed a particular vulnerability of stage N2 in insomnia. The feature characterizes insomnia better than-and independently of-any conventional sleep parameter. © Sleep Research Society 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Sleep Research Society. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail journals.permissions@oup.com.

An exacting transition probability measurement - a direct test of atomic many-body theories.

PubMed

Dutta, Tarun; De Munshi, Debashis; Yum, Dahyun; Rebhi, Riadh; Mukherjee, Manas

2016-07-19

A new protocol for measuring the branching fraction of hydrogenic atoms with only statistically limited uncertainty is proposed and demonstrated for the decay of the P3/2 level of the barium ion, with precision below 0.5%. Heavy hydrogenic atoms like the barium ion are test beds for fundamental physics such as atomic parity violation and they also hold the key to understanding nucleo-synthesis in stars. To draw definitive conclusion about possible physics beyond the standard model by measuring atomic parity violation in the barium ion it is necessary to measure the dipole transition probabilities of low-lying excited states with a precision better than 1%. Furthermore, enhancing our understanding of the barium puzzle in barium stars requires branching fraction data for proper modelling of nucleo-synthesis. Our measurements are the first to provide a direct test of quantum many-body calculations on the barium ion with a precision below one percent and more importantly with no known systematic uncertainties. The unique measurement protocol proposed here can be easily extended to any decay with more than two channels and hence paves the way for measuring the branching fractions of other hydrogenic atoms with no significant systematic uncertainties.

Emulating JWST/NIRCam Exoplanet Transit Observations in a Testbed laboratory experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Touli-Lebreton, D.; Vasisht, G.; Smith, R.; Krist, J.; Beichman, C.

2014-03-01

The transit technique is used for the detection and characterization of exoplanets. The combination of a transit measurement with a radial velocity measurement gives information about a planet's radius and mass, respectively, leading to an estimate of the planet's density and therefore to its composition and evolutionary history. Spectroscopic observations of individual planets have revealed atomic and molecular species such as H2O, CO2 and CH4 in atmospheres of planets orbiting bright stars, e.g. Deming et al 2013. These transit observations require extremely precise photometry. For instance, Jupiter transit results to a 1% brightness decrease of a solar type star while the Earth causes only a 0.0084% decrease (84 ppm). In our controlled laboratory experiment, we use a H2RG detector, two lamps of variable intensity, along with spectral line and photometric simulation masks to emulate the signals from a star-only, from a planet-only and finally, from a combination of a planet + star. Two masks have been used to simulate spectra in monochromatic light. The masks are 1040 pixels in length with one mask having a 2-pixel width and the other a 10-pixel width. From many-hour long observing sequences we obtain time series photometry with deliberate offsets introduced to test sensitivity to pointing jitter and other effects. We can modify the star- planet brightness contrast by factors up to 104:1. With cross correlation techniques we calculate positional shifts which are then used to decorrelate the effects of vertical and lateral offsets due to turbulence and instrumental vibrations on the photometry. Using Principal Component Analysis (PCA), we reject correlated temporal noise to achieve a precision lower than 50 ppm (Clanton et al 2012). Testbed experiments are ongoing to provide quantitative information on the achievable spectroscopic precision using realistic exoplanet spectra with the goal to define optimized data acquisition sequences for use, for example, with the

Infections in British clinical laboratories, 1986-87.

PubMed

Grist, N R; Emslie, J A

1989-07-01

During 1986-87 this continuing survey showed 15 specific infections in the staff of 235 laboratories, representing 28,524 person years of exposure. The community was the probable source of four of the five cases of tuberculosis and one of the five cases of salmonellosis. Occupational exposure was the probable cause of four infections by Shigella flexneri, three by Salmonella typhimurium, and one by S typhi, all affecting medical laboratory scientific officers (MLSOs) in microbiology. Occupational exposure was also the probable cause of one case of tuberculosis in a mortuary technician and one of probable non-A, non-B hepatitis in a medical laboratory scientific officer haematology worker. The overall incidence of reported infections was 52.6/100,000 person years (35/100,000 for infections of probable occupational origin). The highest rates of laboratory acquired infections related to MLSO microbiology workers and mortuary technicians. No additional infections were seen as a result of extending the survey to forensic laboratories.

Stretching Probability Explorations with Geoboards

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wheeler, Ann; Champion, Joe

2016-01-01

Students are faced with many transitions in their middle school mathematics classes. To build knowledge, skills, and confidence in the key areas of algebra and geometry, students often need to practice using numbers and polygons in a variety of contexts. Teachers also want students to explore ideas from probability and statistics. Teachers know…

Alameda-Contra Costa Transit District (AC Transit) Fuel Cell Transit Buses : Evaluation Results Update

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2007-10-01

In early 2007, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) published a preliminary evaluation results report1 (April through November 2006) on hydrogen fuel cell and diesel buses operating at Alameda-Contra Costa Transit District (AC Transit) in ...

Laboratory Measurements of the Dielectronic Recombination Satellite Transitions of He-Like FE XXV and H-Like FE XXVI

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gu, M. F.; Beiersdorfer, P.; Brown, G. V.; Graf, A.; Kelley, R. I.; Kilbourne, C. A.; Porter, F. S.; Kahn, S. M,

2012-01-01

We present laboratory spectra of dielectronic recombination (DR) satellite transitions attached to the He-like and H-like iron resonance lines obtained with the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center X-ray calorimeter and produced by a thermal plasma simu1ation technique on the EBIT-I electron beam ion trap at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. We demonstrate that the calorimeter has sufficient spectral resolution in the 6-9 keV range to provide reliable measurements not only of standard DR satellite to resonance line intensities but also of DR satellite to DR satellite ratios that can be used to diagnose nonthermal electron distributions. Electron temperatures derived from the measured line intensities are consistent with the temperature of the simulated plasma. Temperature measurements based on DR satellite transitions have significant advantages over those based on collisional ionization equilibrium or continuum shape. Thus, successful demonstration of this method with the X-ray calorimeter is an important step fur its application in X-ray astronomy.

Effect of H2 binding on the nonadiabatic transition probability between singlet and triplet states of the [NiFe]-hydrogenase active site.

PubMed

Kaliakin, Danil S; Zaari, Ryan R; Varganov, Sergey A

2015-02-12

We investigate the effect of H2 binding on the spin-forbidden nonadiabatic transition probability between the lowest energy singlet and triplet electronic states of [NiFe]-hydrogenase active site model, using a velocity averaged Landau-Zener theory. Density functional and multireference perturbation theories were used to provide parameters for the Landau-Zener calculations. It was found that variation of the torsion angle between the terminal thiolate ligands around the Ni center induces an intersystem crossing between the lowest energy singlet and triplet electronic states in the bare active site and in the active site with bound H2. Potential energy curves between the singlet and triplet minima along the torsion angle and H2 binding energies to the two spin states were calculated. Upon H2 binding to the active site, there is a decrease in the torsion angle at the minimum energy crossing point between the singlet and triplet states. The probability of nonadiabatic transitions at temperatures between 270 and 370 K ranges from 35% to 32% for the active site with bound H2 and from 42% to 38% for the bare active site, thus indicating the importance of spin-forbidden nonadiabatic pathways for H2 binding on the [NiFe]-hydrogenase active site.

Radiative lifetimes and transition probabilities for electric-dipole delta n equals zero transitions in highly stripped sulfur ions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pegg, D. J.; Elston, S. B.; Griffin, P. M.; Forester, J. P.; Thoe, R. S.; Peterson, R. S.; Sellin, I. A.; Hayden, H. C.

1976-01-01

The beam-foil time-of-flight method has been used to investigate radiative lifetimes and transition rates involving allowed intrashell transitions within the L shell of highly ionized sulfur. The results for these transitions, which can be particularly correlation-sensitive, are compared with current calculations based upon multiconfigurational models.

E2 transition probabilities for decays of isomers observed in neutron-rich odd Sn isotopes

DOE PAGES

Iskra, Ł. W.; Broda, R.; Janssens, R. V.F.; ...

2015-01-01

High-spin states were investigated with gamma coincidence techniques in neutron-rich Sn isotopes produced in fission processes following ⁴⁸Ca + ²⁰⁸Pb, ⁴⁸Ca + ²³⁸U, and ⁶⁴Ni + ²³⁸U reactions. By exploiting delayed and cross-coincidence techniques, level schemes have been delineated in odd ¹¹⁹⁻¹²⁵Sn isotopes. Particular attention was paid to the occurrence of 19/2⁺ and 23/2⁺ isomeric states for which the available information has now been significantly extended. Reduced transition probabilities, B(E2), extracted from the measured half-lives and the established details of the isomeric decays exhibit a striking regularity. This behavior was compared with the previously observed regularity of the B(E2) amplitudesmore » for the seniority ν = 2 and 3, 10⁺ and 27/2⁻ isomers in even- and odd-Sn isotopes, respectively.« less

Dynamic phase transitions of the Blume-Emery-Griffiths model under an oscillating external magnetic field by the path probability method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ertaş, Mehmet; Keskin, Mustafa

2015-03-01

By using the path probability method (PPM) with point distribution, we study the dynamic phase transitions (DPTs) in the Blume-Emery-Griffiths (BEG) model under an oscillating external magnetic field. The phases in the model are obtained by solving the dynamic equations for the average order parameters and a disordered phase, ordered phase and four mixed phases are found. We also investigate the thermal behavior of the dynamic order parameters to analyze the nature dynamic transitions as well as to obtain the DPT temperatures. The dynamic phase diagrams are presented in three different planes in which exhibit the dynamic tricritical point, double critical end point, critical end point, quadrupole point, triple point as well as the reentrant behavior, strongly depending on the values of the system parameters. We compare and discuss the dynamic phase diagrams with dynamic phase diagrams that were obtained within the Glauber-type stochastic dynamics based on the mean-field theory.

The First Laboratory Detection of Vibration-rotation Transitions of 12CH+ and 13CH+ and Improved Measurement of Their Rotational Transition Frequencies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doménech, José L.; Jusko, Pavol; Schlemmer, Stephan; Asvany, Oskar

2018-04-01

C–H stretches of the fundamental ions CH+ and 13CH+, which have long been searched for, have been observed for the first time in the laboratory. The state-dependent attachment of He atoms to these ions at cryogenic temperatures has been exploited to obtain high-resolution rovibrational data. In addition, the lowest rotational transitions of CH+, 13CH+ and CD+ have been revisited and their rest frequency values have improved substantially.

A quarter of a century of job transitions in Germany☆

PubMed Central

Kattenbach, Ralph; Schneidhofer, Thomas M.; Lücke, Janine; Latzke, Markus; Loacker, Bernadette; Schramm, Florian; Mayrhofer, Wolfgang

2014-01-01

By examining trends in intra-organizational and inter-organizational job transition probabilities among professional and managerial employees in Germany, we test the applicability of mainstream career theory to a specific context and challenge its implied change assumption. Drawing on data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP), we apply linear probability models to show the influence of time, economic cycle and age on the probability of job transitions between 1984 and 2010. Results indicate a slight negative trend in the frequency of job transitions during the analyzed time span, owing to a pronounced decrease in intra-organizational transitions, which is only partly offset by a comparatively weaker positive trend towards increased inter-organizational transitions. The latter is strongly influenced by fluctuations in the economic cycle. Finally, the probability of job transitions keeps declining steadily through the course of one's working life. In contrast to inter-organizational transitions, however, this age effect for intra-organizational transitions has decreased over time. PMID:24493876

A quarter of a century of job transitions in Germany.

PubMed

Kattenbach, Ralph; Schneidhofer, Thomas M; Lücke, Janine; Latzke, Markus; Loacker, Bernadette; Schramm, Florian; Mayrhofer, Wolfgang

2014-02-01

By examining trends in intra-organizational and inter-organizational job transition probabilities among professional and managerial employees in Germany, we test the applicability of mainstream career theory to a specific context and challenge its implied change assumption. Drawing on data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP), we apply linear probability models to show the influence of time, economic cycle and age on the probability of job transitions between 1984 and 2010. Results indicate a slight negative trend in the frequency of job transitions during the analyzed time span, owing to a pronounced decrease in intra-organizational transitions, which is only partly offset by a comparatively weaker positive trend towards increased inter-organizational transitions. The latter is strongly influenced by fluctuations in the economic cycle. Finally, the probability of job transitions keeps declining steadily through the course of one's working life. In contrast to inter-organizational transitions, however, this age effect for intra-organizational transitions has decreased over time.

Mars Science Laboratory Heatshield Aerothermodynamics: Design and Reconstruction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Edquist, Karl T.; Hollis, Brian R.; Johnston, Christopher O.; Bose, Deepak; White, Todd R.; Mahzari, Milad

2013-01-01

The Mars Science Laboratory heatshield was designed to withstand a fully turbulent heat pulse based on test results and computational analysis on a pre-flight design trajectory. Instrumentation on the flight heatshield measured in-depth temperatures in the thermal protection system. The data indicate that boundary layer transition occurred at 5 of 7 thermocouple locations prior to peak heating. Data oscillations at 3 pressure measurement locations may also indicate transition. This paper presents the heatshield temperature and pressure data, possible explanations for the timing of boundary layer transition, and a qualitative comparison of reconstructed and computational heating on the as-flown trajectory. Boundary layer Reynolds numbers that are typically used to predict transition are compared to observed transition at various heatshield locations. A uniform smooth-wall transition Reynolds number does not explain the timing of boundary layer transition observed during flight. A roughness-based Reynolds number supports the possibility of transition due to discrete or distributed roughness elements on the heatshield. However, the distributed roughness height would have needed to be larger than the pre-flight assumption. The instrumentation confirmed the predicted location of maximum turbulent heat flux near the leeside shoulder. The reconstructed heat flux at that location is bounded by smooth-wall turbulent calculations on the reconstructed trajectory, indicating that augmentation due to surface roughness probably did not occur. Turbulent heating on the downstream side of the heatshield nose exceeded smooth-wall computations, indicating that roughness may have augmented heating. The stagnation region also experienced heating that exceeded computational levels, but shock layer radiation does not fully explain the differences.

Evaluation of aquifer heterogeneity effects on river flow loss using a transition probability framework

USGS Publications Warehouse

Engdahl, N.B.; Vogler, E.T.; Weissmann, G.S.

2010-01-01

River-aquifer exchange is considered within a transition probability framework along the Rio Grande in Albuquerque, New Mexico, to provide a stochastic estimate of aquifer heterogeneity and river loss. Six plausible hydrofacies configurations were determined using categorized drill core and wetland survey data processed through the TPROGS geostatistical package. A base case homogeneous model was also constructed for comparison. River loss was simulated for low, moderate, and high Rio Grande stages and several different riverside drain stage configurations. Heterogeneity effects were quantified by determining the mean and variance of the K field for each realization compared to the root-mean-square (RMS) error of the observed groundwater head data. Simulation results showed that the heterogeneous models produced smaller estimates of loss than the homogeneous approximation. Differences between heterogeneous and homogeneous model results indicate that the use of a homogeneous K in a regional-scale model may result in an overestimation of loss but comparable RMS error. We find that the simulated river loss is dependent on the aquifer structure and is most sensitive to the volumetric proportion of fines within the river channel. Copyright 2010 by the American Geophysical Union.

Acoustic Emission Patterns and the Transition to Ductility in Sub-Micron Scale Laboratory Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghaffari, H.; Xia, K.; Young, R.

2013-12-01

We report observation of a transition from the brittle to ductile regime in precursor events from different rock materials (Granite, Sandstone, Basalt, and Gypsum) and Polymers (PMMA, PTFE and CR-39). Acoustic emission patterns associated with sub-micron scale laboratory earthquakes are mapped into network parameter spaces (functional damage networks). The sub-classes hold nearly constant timescales, indicating dependency of the sub-phases on the mechanism governing the previous evolutionary phase, i.e., deformation and failure of asperities. Based on our findings, we propose that the signature of the non-linear elastic zone around a crack tip is mapped into the details of the evolutionary phases, supporting the formation of a strongly weak zone in the vicinity of crack tips. Moreover, we recognize sub-micron to micron ruptures with signatures of 'stiffening' in the deformation phase of acoustic-waveforms. We propose that the latter rupture fronts carry critical rupture extensions, including possible dislocations faster than the shear wave speed. Using 'template super-shear waveforms' and their network characteristics, we show that the acoustic emission signals are possible super-shear or intersonic events. Ref. [1] Ghaffari, H. O., and R. P. Young. "Acoustic-Friction Networks and the Evolution of Precursor Rupture Fronts in Laboratory Earthquakes." Nature Scientific reports 3 (2013). [2] Xia, Kaiwen, Ares J. Rosakis, and Hiroo Kanamori. "Laboratory earthquakes: The sub-Rayleigh-to-supershear rupture transition." Science 303.5665 (2004): 1859-1861. [3] Mello, M., et al. "Identifying the unique ground motion signatures of supershear earthquakes: Theory and experiments." Tectonophysics 493.3 (2010): 297-326. [4] Gumbsch, Peter, and Huajian Gao. "Dislocations faster than the speed of sound." Science 283.5404 (1999): 965-968. [5] Livne, Ariel, et al. "The near-tip fields of fast cracks." Science 327.5971 (2010): 1359-1363. [6] Rycroft, Chris H., and Eran Bouchbinder

Saturated fluorescence method for determination of atomic transition probabilities: Application to the Ar i 430.0-nm (1s4-3p8) transition and the lifetime determination of the upper level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirabayashi, A.; Okuda, S.; Nambu, Y.; Fujimoto, T.

1987-01-01

We have developed a new method for determination of atomic transition probabilities based on laser-induced-fluorescence spectroscopy (LIFS). In the method one produces a known population of atoms in the upper level under investigation and relates it to an observed absolute line intensity. We have applied this method to the argon 430.0-nm line (1s4-3p8): In an argon discharge plasma the 1s5-level population and spatial distribution are determined by the self-absorption method combined with LIFS under conditions where the 3p8-level population is much lower than that of the 1s5 level. When intense laser light of 419.1 nm (1s5-3p8) irradiates the plasma and saturates the 3p8-level population, the produced 3p8-level population and its alignment can be determined from the 1s5-level parameters as determined above, by solving the master equation on the basis of broad-line excitation. By comparing the observed absolute fluorescence intensity of the 430.0-nm line with the above population, we have determined the transition probability to be A=(3.94+/-0.60)×105 s-1. We also determined the 3p8-level lifetime by LIFS. Several factors which might affect the measurement are discussed. The result is τ=127+/-10 ns.

Dynamic Encoding of Speech Sequence Probability in Human Temporal Cortex

PubMed Central

Leonard, Matthew K.; Bouchard, Kristofer E.; Tang, Claire

2015-01-01

Sensory processing involves identification of stimulus features, but also integration with the surrounding sensory and cognitive context. Previous work in animals and humans has shown fine-scale sensitivity to context in the form of learned knowledge about the statistics of the sensory environment, including relative probabilities of discrete units in a stream of sequential auditory input. These statistics are a defining characteristic of one of the most important sequential signals humans encounter: speech. For speech, extensive exposure to a language tunes listeners to the statistics of sound sequences. To address how speech sequence statistics are neurally encoded, we used high-resolution direct cortical recordings from human lateral superior temporal cortex as subjects listened to words and nonwords with varying transition probabilities between sound segments. In addition to their sensitivity to acoustic features (including contextual features, such as coarticulation), we found that neural responses dynamically encoded the language-level probability of both preceding and upcoming speech sounds. Transition probability first negatively modulated neural responses, followed by positive modulation of neural responses, consistent with coordinated predictive and retrospective recognition processes, respectively. Furthermore, transition probability encoding was different for real English words compared with nonwords, providing evidence for online interactions with high-order linguistic knowledge. These results demonstrate that sensory processing of deeply learned stimuli involves integrating physical stimulus features with their contextual sequential structure. Despite not being consciously aware of phoneme sequence statistics, listeners use this information to process spoken input and to link low-level acoustic representations with linguistic information about word identity and meaning. PMID:25948269

The Neuronal Transition Probability (NTP) Model for the Dynamic Progression of Non-REM Sleep EEG: The Role of the Suprachiasmatic Nucleus

PubMed Central

Merica, Helli; Fortune, Ronald D.

2011-01-01

Little attention has gone into linking to its neuronal substrates the dynamic structure of non-rapid-eye-movement (NREM) sleep, defined as the pattern of time-course power in all frequency bands across an entire episode. Using the spectral power time-courses in the sleep electroencephalogram (EEG), we showed in the typical first episode, several moves towards-and-away from deep sleep, each having an identical pattern linking the major frequency bands beta, sigma and delta. The neuronal transition probability model (NTP) – in fitting the data well – successfully explained the pattern as resulting from stochastic transitions of the firing-rates of the thalamically-projecting brainstem-activating neurons, alternating between two steady dynamic-states (towards-and-away from deep sleep) each initiated by a so-far unidentified flip-flop. The aims here are to identify this flip-flop and to demonstrate that the model fits well all NREM episodes, not just the first. Using published data on suprachiasmatic nucleus (SCN) activity we show that the SCN has the information required to provide a threshold-triggered flip-flop for timing the towards-and-away alternations, information provided by sleep-relevant feedback to the SCN. NTP then determines the pattern of spectral power within each dynamic-state. NTP was fitted to individual NREM episodes 1–4, using data from 30 healthy subjects aged 20–30 years, and the quality of fit for each NREM measured. We show that the model fits well all NREM episodes and the best-fit probability-set is found to be effectively the same in fitting all subject data. The significant model-data agreement, the constant probability parameter and the proposed role of the SCN add considerable strength to the model. With it we link for the first time findings at cellular level and detailed time-course data at EEG level, to give a coherent picture of NREM dynamics over the entire night and over hierarchic brain levels all the way from the SCN to the

High density bit transition requirements versus the effects on BCH error correcting code. [bit synchronization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ingels, F. M.; Schoggen, W. O.

1982-01-01

The design to achieve the required bit transition density for the Space Shuttle high rate multiplexes (HRM) data stream of the Space Laboratory Vehicle is reviewed. It contained a recommended circuit approach, specified the pseudo random (PN) sequence to be used and detailed the properties of the sequence. Calculations showing the probability of failing to meet the required transition density were included. A computer simulation of the data stream and PN cover sequence was provided. All worst case situations were simulated and the bit transition density exceeded that required. The Preliminary Design Review and the critical Design Review are documented. The Cover Sequence Generator (CSG) Encoder/Decoder design was constructed and demonstrated. The demonstrations were successful. All HRM and HRDM units incorporate the CSG encoder or CSG decoder as appropriate.

Secondary standards laboratories for ionizing radiation calibrations: The national laboratory interests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roberson, P. I.; Campbell, G. W.

1984-11-01

The national laboratories are probable candidates to serve as secondary standards laboratories for the federal sector. Representatives of the major Department of Energy laboratories were polled concerning attitudes toward a secondary laboratory structure. Generally, the need for secondary laboratories was recognized and the development of such a program was encouraged. The secondary laboratories should be reviewed and inspected by the National Bureau of Standards. They should offer all of the essential, and preferably additional, calibration services in the field of radiological health protection. The selection of secondary laboratories should be based on economic and geographic criteria and/or be voluntary.

Method of self-consistent evaluation of absolute emission probabilities of particles and gamma rays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Badikov, Sergei; Chechev, Valery

2017-09-01

In assumption of well installed decay scheme the method provides a) exact balance relationships, b) lower (compared to the traditional techniques) uncertainties of recommended absolute emission probabilities of particles and gamma rays, c) evaluation of correlations between the recommended emission probabilities (for the same and different decay modes). Application of the method for the decay data evaluation for even curium isotopes led to paradoxical results. The multidimensional confidence regions for the probabilities of the most intensive alpha transitions constructed on the basis of present and the ENDF/B-VII.1, JEFF-3.1, DDEP evaluations are inconsistent whereas the confidence intervals for the evaluated probabilities of single transitions agree with each other.

Event Discrimination Using Seismoacoustic Catalog Probabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Albert, S.; Arrowsmith, S.; Bowman, D.; Downey, N.; Koch, C.

2017-12-01

Presented here are three seismoacoustic catalogs from various years and locations throughout Utah and New Mexico. To create these catalogs, we combine seismic and acoustic events detected and located using different algorithms. Seismoacoustic events are formed based on similarity of origin time and location. Following seismoacoustic fusion, the data is compared against ground truth events. Each catalog contains events originating from both natural and anthropogenic sources. By creating these seismoacoustic catalogs, we show that the fusion of seismic and acoustic data leads to a better understanding of the nature of individual events. The probability of an event being a surface blast given its presence in each seismoacoustic catalog is quantified. We use these probabilities to discriminate between events from natural and anthropogenic sources. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology and Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC., a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International, Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA-0003525.

Sandia, California Tritium Research Laboratory transition and reutilization project

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Garcia, T.B.

1997-02-01

This paper describes a project within Sandia National Laboratory to convert the shut down Tritium Research Laboratory into a facility which could be reused within the laboratory complex. In the process of decommissioning and decontaminating the facility, the laboratory was able to save substantial financial resources by transferring much existing equipment to other DOE facilities, and then expeditiously implementing a decontamination program which has resulted in the building being converted into laboratory space for new lab programs. This project of facility reuse has been a significant financial benefit to the laboratory.

Quantitative Ultrasound: Transition from the Laboratory to the Clinic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hall, Timothy

2014-03-01

There is a long history of development and testing of quantitative methods in medical ultrasound. From the initial attempts to scan breasts with ultrasound in the early 1950's, there was a simultaneous attempt to classify tissue as benign or malignant based on the appearance of the echo signal on an oscilloscope. Since that time, there has been substantial improvement in the ultrasound systems used, the models to describe wave propagation in random media, the methods of signal detection theory, and the combination of those models and methods into parameter estimation techniques. One particularly useful measure in ultrasonics is the acoustic differential scattering cross section per unit volume in the special case of the 180° (as occurs in pulse-echo ultrasound imaging) which is known as the backscatter coefficient. The backscatter coefficient, and parameters derived from it, can be used to objectively measure quantities that are used clinically to subjectively describe ultrasound images. For example, the ``echogenicity'' (relative ultrasound image brightness) of the renal cortex is commonly compared to that of the liver. Investigating the possibility of liver disease, it is assumed the renal cortex echogenicity is normal. Investigating the kidney, it is assumed the liver echogenicity is normal. Objective measures of backscatter remove these assumptions. There is a 30-year history of accurate estimates of acoustic backscatter coefficients with laboratory systems. Twenty years ago that ability was extended to clinical imaging systems with array transducers. Recent studies involving multiple laboratories and a variety of clinical imaging systems has demonstrated system-independent estimates of acoustic backscatter coefficients in well-characterized media (agreement within about 1.5dB over about a 1-decade frequency range). Advancements that made this possible, transition of this and similar capabilities into medical practice and the prospects for quantitative image

Stark broadening parameters and transition probabilities of persistent lines of Tl II

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Andrés-García, I.; Colón, C.; Fernández-Martínez, F.

2018-05-01

The presence of singly ionized thallium in the stellar atmosphere of the chemically peculiar star χ Lupi was reported by Leckrone et al. in 1999 by analysis of its stellar spectrum obtained with the Goddard High Resolution Spectrograph (GHRS) on board the Hubble Space Telescope. Atomic data about the spectral line of 1307.50 Å and about the hyperfine components of the spectral lines of 1321.71 Å and 1908.64 Å were taken from different sources and used to analyse the isotopic abundance of thallium II in the star χ Lupi. From their results the authors concluded that the photosphere of the star presents an anomalous isotopic composition of Tl II. A study of the atomic parameters of Tl II and of the broadening by the Stark effect of its spectral lines (and therefore of the possible overlaps of these lines) can help to clarify the conclusions about the spectral abundance of Tl II in different stars. In this paper we present calculated values of the atomic transition probabilities and Stark broadening parameters for 49 spectral lines of Tl II obtained by using the Cowan code including core polarization effects and the Griem semiempirical approach. Theoretical values of radiative lifetimes for 11 levels (eight with experimental values in the bibliography) are calculated and compared with the experimental values in order to test the quality of our results. Theoretical trends of the Stark width and shift parameters versus the temperature for spectral lines of astrophysical interest are displayed. Trends of our calculated Stark width for the isoelectronic sequence Tl II-Pb III-Bi IV are also displayed.

Probability distributions of linear statistics in chaotic cavities and associated phase transitions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vivo, Pierpaolo; Majumdar, Satya N.; Bohigas, Oriol

2010-03-01

We establish large deviation formulas for linear statistics on the N transmission eigenvalues (T{sub i}) of a chaotic cavity, in the framework of random matrix theory. Given any linear statistics of interest A=SIGMA{sub i=1}{sup N}a(T{sub i}), the probability distribution P{sub A}(A,N) of A generically satisfies the large deviation formula lim{sub N-}>{sub i}nfinity[-2 log P{sub A}(Nx,N)/betaN{sup 2}]=PSI{sub A}(x), where PSI{sub A}(x) is a rate function that we compute explicitly in many cases (conductance, shot noise, and moments) and beta corresponds to different symmetry classes. Using these large deviation expressions, it is possible to recover easily known results and to produce newmore » formulas, such as a closed form expression for v(n)=lim{sub N-}>{sub i}nfinity var(T{sub n}) (where T{sub n}=SIGMA{sub i}T{sub i}{sup n}) for arbitrary integer n. The universal limit v*=lim{sub n-}>{sub i}nfinity v(n)=1/2pibeta is also computed exactly. The distributions display a central Gaussian region flanked on both sides by non-Gaussian tails. At the junction of the two regimes, weakly nonanalytical points appear, a direct consequence of phase transitions in an associated Coulomb gas problem. Numerical checks are also provided, which are in full agreement with our asymptotic results in both real and Laplace space even for moderately small N. Part of the results have been announced by Vivo et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 101, 216809 (2008)].« less

Measurement of L-shell transitions in M-shell ions in the laboratory and identification in stellar coronae

DOE PAGES

Lepson, J. K.; Beiersdorfer, P.; Hell, N.; ...

2017-04-04

Based on laboratory data from the Lawrence Livermore EBIT-I electron beam ion trap and calculations using the relativistic multi-reference Møller-Plesset (MRMP) perturbation theory approach, we identify L-shell transitions of M-shell iron ions in emission spectra of the nearby stars Capella and Procyon. In conclusion, these lines are weaker than the well known, prominent lines from Fe XVII. However, they need to be taken into account when modeling the spectra, especially of cool stars.

Tables of Calculated Transition Probabilities for the A-X System of OH

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-06-01

June 1981 US ARMY ARMAMENT RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT COMMAND BALLISTIC RESEARCH LABORATORY ABERDEEN PROVING GROUND , MARYLAND Approved for public release...Laboratory ATTN: DRDAR-BLP Aberdeen Proving Ground , MD 21005 1L16112AH43 II. CONTROLLING OFFICE NAME AND ADDRESS 12. REPORT DATE USA Armament Research and...Development Command /I JUNE. 1981 USA Ballistic Research Laboratory 4 ATTN: DRDAR-BL 1/1) S 2P’GE Aberden Provine Ground . MD 21001 56 Pazes 14

Multipartite entanglement characterization of a quantum phase transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Costantini, G.; Facchi, P.; Florio, G.; Pascazio, S.

2007-07-01

A probability density characterization of multipartite entanglement is tested on the one-dimensional quantum Ising model in a transverse field. The average and second moment of the probability distribution are numerically shown to be good indicators of the quantum phase transition. We comment on multipartite entanglement generation at a quantum phase transition.

Study on the spectroscopic parameters and transition probabilities of 25 low-lying states of the AlC+ cation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Jicai; Shi, Deheng; Xing, Wei; Sun, Jinfeng; Zhu, Zunlue

2017-11-01

This paper investigates the spectroscopic parameters and transition probabilities of 25 low-lying states, which come from the first five dissociation channels of AlC+ cation. The potential energy curves are calculated with the complete active space self-consistent field method, which is followed by the valence internally contracted multireference configuration interaction approach with Davidson correction. Of these 25 states, only the 35Σ-state is repulsive; the c1Σ+, f1Π, and 15Π states have the double well; the first well of c1Σ+ state and the second well of 15Π state are very weakly bound; the first well of c1Σ+ state has no vibrational levels; the 25Π state and the double well of f1Π state have only several vibrational states; the B3Σ-, E3Σ+, D3Π, 15Σ+, 25Σ-, and 15Π states are inverted when the spin-orbit coupling effect is included. The avoided crossings exist between the B3Σ- and 33Σ- states, the c1Σ+ and d1Σ+ states, the f1Π and 31Π states, the 15Π and 25Π states, as well as the 25Π and 35Π states. Core-valence correlation and scalar relativistic corrections are considered. The extrapolation of potential energies to the complete basis set limit is done. The spectroscopic parameters and vibrational levels are determined for all the Λ-S and Ω bound states. The transition dipole moments are calculated. Franck-Condon factors of a great number of electronic transitions are evaluated. On the whole, the spin-orbit coupling effect on the spectroscopic parameters and vibrational levels is small except for very few states. The results determined in this paper could provide some powerful guidelines to observe these states in a spectroscopy experiment.

Examining hydrogen transitions.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Plotkin, S. E.; Energy Systems

2007-03-01

This report describes the results of an effort to identify key analytic issues associated with modeling a transition to hydrogen as a fuel for light duty vehicles, and using insights gained from this effort to suggest ways to improve ongoing modeling efforts. The study reported on here examined multiple hydrogen scenarios reported in the literature, identified modeling issues associated with those scenario analyses, and examined three DOE-sponsored hydrogen transition models in the context of those modeling issues. The three hydrogen transition models are HyTrans (contractor: Oak Ridge National Laboratory), MARKAL/DOE* (Brookhaven National Laboratory), and NEMS-H2 (OnLocation, Inc). The goals ofmore » these models are (1) to help DOE improve its R&D effort by identifying key technology and other roadblocks to a transition and testing its technical program goals to determine whether they are likely to lead to the market success of hydrogen technologies, (2) to evaluate alternative policies to promote a transition, and (3) to estimate the costs and benefits of alternative pathways to hydrogen development.« less

Betting on change: modeling transitional probabilities to guide therapy development for opioid dependence.

PubMed

Carpenter, Kenneth M; Jiang, Huiping; Sullivan, Maria A; Bisaga, Adam; Comer, Sandra D; Raby, Wilfrid Noel; Brooks, Adam C; Nunes, Edward V

2009-03-01

This study investigated the process of change by modeling transitions among four clinical states encountered in 64 detoxified opiate-dependent individuals treated with daily oral naltrexone: no opiate use, blocked opiate use (i.e., opiate use while adhering to oral naltrexone), unblocked opiate use (i.e., opiate use after having discontinued oral naltrexone), and treatment dropout. The effects of baseline characteristics and two psychosocial interventions of differing intensity, behavioral naltrexone therapy (BNT) and compliance enhancement (CE), on these transitions were studied. Participants using greater quantities of opiates were more likely than other participants to be retained in BNT relative to CE. Markov modeling indicated a transition from abstinence to treatment dropout was approximately 3.56 times greater among participants in CE relative to participants in BNT, indicating the more comprehensive psychosocial intervention kept participants engaged in treatment longer. Transitions to stopping treatment were more likely to occur after unblocked opiate use in both treatments. Continued opiate use while being blocked accounted for a relatively low proportion of transitions to abstinence and may have more deleterious effects later in a treatment episode. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2009 APA, all rights reserved).

Preliminary Exploration of Encounter During Transit Across Southern Africa

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stroud, Phillip David; Cuellar-Hengartner, Leticia; Kubicek, Deborah Ann

Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) is utilizing the Probability Effectiveness Methodology (PEM) tools, particularly the Pathway Analysis, Threat Response and Interdiction Options Tool (PATRIOT) to support the DNDO Architecture and Planning Directorate’s (APD) development of a multi-region terrorist risk assessment tool. The effort is divided into three stages. The first stage is an exploration of what can be done with PATRIOT essentially as is, to characterize encounter rate during transit across a single selected region. The second stage is to develop, condition, and implement required modifications to the data and conduct analysis to generate a well-founded assessment of the transitmore » reliability across that selected region, and to identify any issues in the process. The final stage is to extend the work to a full multi-region global model. This document provides the results of the first stage, namely preliminary explorations with PATRIOT to assess the transit reliability across the region of southern Africa.« less

Video Shot Boundary Detection Using QR-Decomposition and Gaussian Transition Detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amiri, Ali; Fathy, Mahmood

2010-12-01

This article explores the problem of video shot boundary detection and examines a novel shot boundary detection algorithm by using QR-decomposition and modeling of gradual transitions by Gaussian functions. Specifically, the authors attend to the challenges of detecting gradual shots and extracting appropriate spatiotemporal features that affect the ability of algorithms to efficiently detect shot boundaries. The algorithm utilizes the properties of QR-decomposition and extracts a block-wise probability function that illustrates the probability of video frames to be in shot transitions. The probability function has abrupt changes in hard cut transitions, and semi-Gaussian behavior in gradual transitions. The algorithm detects these transitions by analyzing the probability function. Finally, we will report the results of the experiments using large-scale test sets provided by the TRECVID 2006, which has assessments for hard cut and gradual shot boundary detection. These results confirm the high performance of the proposed algorithm.

Transition probability functions for applications of inelastic electron scattering

PubMed Central

Löffler, Stefan; Schattschneider, Peter

2012-01-01

In this work, the transition matrix elements for inelastic electron scattering are investigated which are the central quantity for interpreting experiments. The angular part is given by spherical harmonics. For the weighted radial wave function overlap, analytic expressions are derived in the Slater-type and the hydrogen-like orbital models. These expressions are shown to be composed of a finite sum of polynomials and elementary trigonometric functions. Hence, they are easy to use, require little computation time, and are significantly more accurate than commonly used approximations. PMID:22560709

Optimizing exoplanet transit searches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herrero, E.; Ribas, I.; Jordi, C.

2013-05-01

Exoplanet searches using the transit technique are nowadays providing a great number of findings. Most exoplanet transit detection programs that are currently underway are focused on large catalogs of stars with no pre-selection. This necessarily makes such surveys quite inefficient, because huge amounts of data are processed for a relatively low transiting planet yield. In this work we investigate a method to increase the efficiency of a targeted exoplanet search with the transit technique by preselecting a subset of candidates from large catalogs of stars. Assuming spin-orbit alignment, this can be done by considering stars that have higher probability to be oriented nearly equator-on (inclination close to 90°). We use activity-rotation velocity relations for low-mass stars to study the dependence of the position in the activity - v sin(i) diagram on the stellar axis inclination. We compose a catalog of G-, K-, M-type main sequence simulated stars using isochrones, an isotropic inclination distribution and empirical relations to obtain their rotation periods and activity indexes. Then the activity-vsini diagram is filled and statistics are applied to trace the areas containing the higher ratio of stars with inclinations above 80°. A similar statistics is applied to stars from real catalogs with log(R'_{HK}) and v sin(i) data to find their probability of being equator-on. We present the method used to generate the simulated star catalog and the subsequent statistics to find the highly inclined stars from real catalogs using the activity-v sin(i) diagram. Several catalogs from the literature are analysed and a subsample of stars with the highest probability of being equator-on is presented. Assuming spin-orbit alignment, the efficiency of an exoplanet transit search in the resulting subsample of probably highly inclined stars is estimated to be two to three times higher than with a global search with no pre-selection.

Future Shop: A Model Career Placement & Transition Laboratory.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Floyd, Deborah L.; And Others

During 1988-89, the Collin County Community College District (CCCCD) conducted a project to develop, implement, and evaluate a model career laboratory called a "Future Shop." The laboratory was designed to let users explore diverse career options, job placement opportunities, and transfer resources. The Future Shop lab had three major components:…

Diesel and CNG Transit Bus Emissions Characterization By Two Chassis Dynamometer Laboratories: Results and Issues

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nigel N. Clark, Mridul Gautam; Byron L. Rapp; Donald W. Lyons

1999-05-03

Emissions of six 32 passenger transit buses were characterized using one of the West Virginia University (WVU) Transportable Heavy Duty Emissions Testing Laboratories, and the fixed base chassis dynamometer at the Colorado Institute for Fuels and High Altitude Engine Research (CIFHAER). Three of the buses were powered with 1997 ISB 5.9 liter Cummins diesel engines, and three were powered with the 1997 5.9 liter Cummins natural gas (NG) counterpart. The NG engines were LEV certified. Objectives were to contrast the emissions performance of the diesel and NG units, and to compare results from the two laboratories. Both laboratories found thatmore » oxides of nitrogen and particulate matter (PM) emissions were substantially lower for the natural gas buses than for the diesel buses. It was observed that by varying the rapidity of pedal movement during accelerations in the Central Business District cycle (CBD), CO and PM emissions from the diesel buses could be varied by a factor of three or more. The driving styles may be characterized as aggressive and non-aggressive, but both styles followed the CBD speed command acceptably. PM emissions were far higher for the aggressive driving style. For the NG fueled vehicles driving style had a similar, although smaller, effect on NO{sub x}. It is evident that driver habits may cause substantial deviation in emissions for the CBD cycle. When the CO emissions are used as a surrogate for driver aggression, a regression analysis shows that NO{sub x} and PM emissions from the two laboratories agree closely for equivalent driving style. Implications of driver habit for emissions inventories and regulations are briefly considered.« less

Transition probabilities in OH A 2 sigma + - X 2 pi i: Bands with v prime = 0 and 1, v double prime = 0 to 4

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Copeland, Richard A.; Jeffries, Jay B.; Crosley, David R.

1986-01-01

Experimental results for relative vibrational band transition probabilities for v prime = 0 and 1, and v double prime = 0 to 4 in the A-X electronic system of OH are presented. The measurements, part of a larger set involving v prime = 0 to 4 and v double prime = 0 to 6, were made using spectrally dispersed laser-induced fluorescence (LIF) in the burnt gases of a flame. These Einstein coefficients will be useful in dynamics experiments for quantitative LIF determinations of OH radical concentrations in high v double prime.

Projection of postgraduate students flow with a smoothing matrix transition diagram of Markov chain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahim, Rahela; Ibrahim, Haslinda; Adnan, Farah Adibah

2013-04-01

This paper presents a case study of modeling postgraduate students flow at the College of Art and Sciences, Universiti Utara Malaysia. First, full time postgraduate students and the semester they were in are identified. Then administrative data were used to estimate the transitions between these semesters for the year 2001-2005 periods. Markov chain model is developed to calculate the -5 and -10 years projection of postgraduate students flow at the college. The optimization question addressed in this study is 'Which transitions would sustain the desired structure in the dynamic situation such as trend towards graduation?' The smoothed transition probabilities are proposed to estimate the transition probabilities matrix of 16 × 16. The results shows that using smoothed transition probabilities, the projection number of postgraduate students enrolled in the respective semesters are closer to actual than using the conventional steady states transition probabilities.

Fine-structure calculations of energy levels, oscillator strengths, and transition probabilities for sulfur-like iron, Fe XI

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abou El-Maaref, A., E-mail: aahmh@hotmail.com; Ahmad, Mahmoud; Allam, S.H.

Energy levels, oscillator strengths, and transition probabilities for transitions among the 14 LS states belonging to configurations of sulfur-like iron, Fe XI, have been calculated. These states are represented by configuration interaction wavefunctions and have configurations 3s{sup 2}3p{sup 4}, 3s3p{sup 5}, 3s{sup 2}3p{sup 3}3d, 3s{sup 2}3p{sup 3}4s, 3s{sup 2}3p{sup 3}4p, and 3s{sup 2}3p{sup 3}4d, which give rise to 123 fine-structure energy levels. Extensive configuration interaction calculations using the CIV3 code have been performed. To assess the importance of relativistic effects, the intermediate coupling scheme by means of the Breit–Pauli Hamiltonian terms, such as the one-body mass correction and Darwin term,more » and spin–orbit, spin–other-orbit, and spin–spin corrections, are incorporated within the code. These incorporations adjusted the energy levels, therefore the calculated values are close to the available experimental data. Comparisons between the present calculated energy levels as well as oscillator strengths and both experimental and theoretical data have been performed. Our results show good agreement with earlier works, and they might be useful in thermonuclear fusion research and astrophysical applications. -- Highlights: •Accurate atomic data of iron ions are needed for identification of solar corona. •Extensive configuration interaction wavefunctions including 123 fine-structure levels have been calculated. •The relativistic effects by means of the Breit–Pauli Hamiltonian terms are incorporated. •This incorporation adjusts the energy levels, therefore the calculated values are close to experimental values.« less

Dynamics of Sleep Stage Transitions in Health and Disease

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kishi, Akifumi; Struzik, Zbigniew R.; Natelson, Benjamin H.; Togo, Fumiharu; Yamamoto, Yoshiharu

2007-07-01

Sleep dynamics emerges from complex interactions between neuronal populations in many brain regions. Annotated sleep stages from electroencephalography (EEG) recordings could potentially provide a non-invasive way to obtain valuable insights into the mechanisms of these interactions, and ultimately into the very nature of sleep regulation. However, to date, sleep stage analysis has been restricted, only very recently expanding the scope of the traditional descriptive statistics to more dynamical concepts of the duration of and transitions between vigilance states and temporal evaluation of transition probabilities among different stages. Physiological and/or pathological implications of the dynamics of sleep stage transitions have, to date, not been investigated. Here, we study detailed duration and transition statistics among sleep stages in healthy humans and patients with chronic fatigue syndrome, known to be associated with disturbed sleep. We find that the durations of waking and non-REM sleep, in particular deep sleep (Stages III and IV), during the nighttime, follow a power-law probability distribution function, while REM sleep durations follow an exponential function, suggestive of complex underlying mechanisms governing the onset of light sleep. We also find a substantial number of REM to non-REM transitions in humans, while this transition is reported to be virtually non-existent in rats. Interestingly, the probability of this REM to non-REM transition is significantly lower in the patients than in controls, resulting in a significantly greater REM to awake, together with Stage I to awake, transition probability. This might potentially account for the reported poor sleep quality in the patients because the normal continuation of sleep after either the lightest or REM sleep is disrupted. We conclude that the dynamical transition analysis of sleep stages is useful for elucidating yet-to-be-determined human sleep regulation mechanisms with a

Establishment of National Laboratory Standards in Public and Private Hospital Laboratories

PubMed Central

ANJARANI, Soghra; SAFADEL, Nooshafarin; DAHIM, Parisa; AMINI, Rana; MAHDAVI, Saeed; MIRAB SAMIEE, Siamak

2013-01-01

In September 2007 national standard manual was finalized and officially announced as the minimal quality requirements for all medical laboratories in the country. Apart from auditing laboratories, Reference Health Laboratory has performed benchmarking auditing of medical laboratory network (surveys) in provinces. 12th benchmarks performed in Tehran and Alborz provinces, Iran in 2010 in three stages. We tried to compare different processes, their quality and accordance with national standard measures between public and private hospital laboratories. The assessment tool was a standardized checklist consists of 164 questions. Analyzing process show although in most cases implementing the standard requirements are more prominent in private laboratories, there is still a long way to complete fulfillment of requirements, and it takes a lot of effort. Differences between laboratories in public and private sectors especially in laboratory personnel and management process are significant. Probably lack of motivation, plays a key role in obtaining less desirable results in laboratories in public sectors. PMID:23514840

Transition moments, radiative transition probabilities, and radiative lifetimes for the band systems A 2Π-X 2Σ+, B 2Σ+-X 2Σ+, and A 2Π-A´ 2Δ of scandium monosulfide, ScS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romeu, João Gabriel Farias; Belinassi, Antonio Ricardo; Ornellas, Fernando R.

2018-05-01

A manifold of electronic states of ScS was investigated with special emphasis on the low-lying states X 2Σ+, A´ 2Δ, A 2Π, and B 2Σ+. For all states, potential energy curves were constructed covering internuclear distances from the equilibrium region through the dissociation limit. For the above states, besides providing the most accurate set of theoretical spectroscopic parameters to date, we have also computed dipole moment functions, transitions dipole moment functions, the associated radiative transition probabilities, and radiative lifetimes. For the states known experimentally, X 2Σ+, A 2Π, and B 2Σ+, our results significantly expand our present knowledge of the energetic profile of these states thus providing a new perspective for understanding the limited spectral data for this species known so far. For the new state, A´ 2Δ, yet unobserved experimentally, our results are sufficiently reliable and accurate to guide spectroscopists on further studies of this species.

Patient Education and Support During CKD Transitions: When the Possible Becomes Probable.

PubMed

Green, Jamie A; Boulware, L Ebony

2016-07-01

Patients transitioning from kidney disease to kidney failure require comprehensive patient-centered education and support. Efforts to prepare patients for this transition often fail to meet patients' needs due to uncertainty about which patients will progress to kidney failure, nonindividualized patient education programs, inadequate psychosocial support, or lack of assistance to guide patients through complex treatment plans. Resources are available to help overcome barriers to providing optimal care during this time, including prognostic tools, educational lesson plans, decision aids, communication skills training, peer support, and patient navigation programs. New models are being studied to comprehensively address patients' needs and improve the lives of kidney patients during this high-risk time. Copyright © 2016 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Capture-recapture studies for multiple strata including non-markovian transitions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brownie, C.; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.; Pollock, K.H.; Hestbeck, J.B.

1993-01-01

We consider capture-recapture studies where release and recapture data are available from each of a number of strata on every capture occasion. Strata may, for example, be geographic locations or physiological states. Movement of animals among strata occurs with unknown probabilities, and estimation of these unknown transition probabilities is the objective. We describe a computer routine for carrying out the analysis under a model that assumes Markovian transitions and under reduced parameter versions of this model. We also introduce models that relax the Markovian assumption and allow 'memory' to operate (i.e., allow dependence of the transition probabilities on the previous state). For these models, we sugg st an analysis based on a conditional likelihood approach. Methods are illustrated with data from a large study on Canada geese (Branta canadensis) banded in three geographic regions. The assumption of Markovian transitions is rejected convincingly for these data, emphasizing the importance of the more general models that allow memory.

Transition path time distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laleman, M.; Carlon, E.; Orland, H.

2017-12-01

Biomolecular folding, at least in simple systems, can be described as a two state transition in a free energy landscape with two deep wells separated by a high barrier. Transition paths are the short part of the trajectories that cross the barrier. Average transition path times and, recently, their full probability distribution have been measured for several biomolecular systems, e.g., in the folding of nucleic acids or proteins. Motivated by these experiments, we have calculated the full transition path time distribution for a single stochastic particle crossing a parabolic barrier, including inertial terms which were neglected in previous studies. These terms influence the short time scale dynamics of a stochastic system and can be of experimental relevance in view of the short duration of transition paths. We derive the full transition path time distribution as well as the average transition path times and discuss the similarities and differences with the high friction limit.

Prospective prediction of children's smoking transitions: role of parents' and older siblings' smoking.

PubMed

Bricker, Jonathan B; Peterson, Arthur V; Leroux, Brian G; Andersen, M Robyn; Rajan, K Bharat; Sarason, Irwin G

2006-01-01

To use a novel social epidemic probability model to investigate longitudinally the extent to which parents' and older siblings' smoking predict children's smoking transitions. Parents' and older siblings' smoking status was assessed when children were in 3rd grade (baseline). Three smoking transitions were assessed over the period of child/adolescent smoking acquisition (up to 12th grade): (1) transition from never smoking to trying smoking, (2) transition from trying to monthly smoking and (3) transition from monthly to daily smoking. Forty Washington State school districts participating in the long term Hutchinson Smoking Prevention Project (HSPP). Participants were the 5520 families for whom data on both parents' and older siblings' baseline smoking status, as well as on children's smoking transitions, were available. The probability that a smoking parent influenced their child to make the first transition to trying smoking was 32% (95% CI: 27%, 36%); to make the second transition from trying to monthly smoking, 15% (95% CI: 10%, 19%); and to make the third transition from monthly to daily smoking, 28% (95% CI: 21%, 34%). The probability that an older sibling influenced a child to make the first transition to trying smoking was 29% (95% CI: 17%, 39%); to make the second transition from trying to monthly smoking, 0% (95% CI: 0%, 8%); and to make the third transition from monthly to daily smoking, 20% (95% CI: 4%, 33%). In contrast to previous research, the results provide new evidence suggesting that family smoking influences both initiation and escalation of children's smoking. Results also quantify, in terms of probabilities, the importance of parents' and older siblings' smoking on children's three major smoking transitions. Parents' smoking, as well as older siblings' smoking, are important behaviors to target in preventing adolescents from making smoking transitions.

Inverse modeling of hydraulic tests in fractured crystalline rock based on a transition probability geostatistical approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blessent, Daniela; Therrien, René; Lemieux, Jean-Michel

2011-12-01

This paper presents numerical simulations of a series of hydraulic interference tests conducted in crystalline bedrock at Olkiluoto (Finland), a potential site for the disposal of the Finnish high-level nuclear waste. The tests are in a block of crystalline bedrock of about 0.03 km3 that contains low-transmissivity fractures. Fracture density, orientation, and fracture transmissivity are estimated from Posiva Flow Log (PFL) measurements in boreholes drilled in the rock block. On the basis of those data, a geostatistical approach relying on a transitional probability and Markov chain models is used to define a conceptual model based on stochastic fractured rock facies. Four facies are defined, from sparsely fractured bedrock to highly fractured bedrock. Using this conceptual model, three-dimensional groundwater flow is then simulated to reproduce interference pumping tests in either open or packed-off boreholes. Hydraulic conductivities of the fracture facies are estimated through automatic calibration using either hydraulic heads or both hydraulic heads and PFL flow rates as targets for calibration. The latter option produces a narrower confidence interval for the calibrated hydraulic conductivities, therefore reducing the associated uncertainty and demonstrating the usefulness of the measured PFL flow rates. Furthermore, the stochastic facies conceptual model is a suitable alternative to discrete fracture network models to simulate fluid flow in fractured geological media.

134Cs emission probabilities determination by gamma spectrometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Almeida, M. C. M.; Poledna, R.; Delgado, J. U.; Silva, R. L.; Araujo, M. T. F.; da Silva, C. J.

2018-03-01

The National Laboratory for Ionizing Radiation Metrology (LNMRI/IRD/CNEN) of Rio de Janeiro performed primary and secondary standardization of different radionuclides reaching satisfactory uncertainties. A solution of 134Cs radionuclide was purchased from commercial supplier to emission probabilities determination of some of its energies. 134Cs is a beta gamma emitter with 754 days of half-life. This radionuclide is used as standard in environmental, water and food control. It is also important to germanium detector calibration. The gamma emission probabilities (Pγ) were determined mainly for some energies of the 134Cs by efficiency curve method and the Pγ absolute uncertainties obtained were below 1% (k=1).

Radiative transition of hydrogen-like ions in quantum plasma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Hongwei; Chen, Zhanbin; Chen, Wencong

2016-12-01

At fusion plasma electron temperature and number density regimes of 1 × 103-1 × 107 K and 1 × 1028-1 × 1031/m3, respectively, the excited states and radiative transition of hydrogen-like ions in fusion plasmas are studied. The results show that quantum plasma model is more suitable to describe the fusion plasma than the Debye screening model. Relativistic correction to bound-state energies of the low-Z hydrogen-like ions is so small that it can be ignored. The transition probability decreases with plasma density, but the transition probabilities have the same order of magnitude in the same number density regime.

Examining Spillovers between Long and Short Repeated Prisoner's Dilemma Games Played in the Laboratory.

PubMed

Arechar, Antonio A; Kouchaki, Maryam; Rand, David G

2018-03-01

We had participants play two sets of repeated Prisoner's Dilemma (RPD) games, one with a large continuation probability and the other with a small continuation probability, as well as Dictator Games (DGs) before and after the RPDs. We find that, regardless of which is RPD set is played first, participants typically cooperate when the continuation probability is large and defect when the continuation probability is small. However, there is an asymmetry in behavior when transitioning from one continuation probability to the other. When switching from large to small, transient higher levels of cooperation are observed in the early games of the small continuation set. Conversely, when switching from small to large, cooperation is immediately high in the first game of the large continuation set. We also observe that response times increase when transitioning between sets of RPDs, except for altruistic participants transitioning into the set of RPDs with long continuation probabilities. These asymmetries suggest a bias in favor of cooperation. Finally, we examine the link between altruism and RPD play. We find that small continuation probability RPD play is correlated with giving in DGs played before and after the RPDs, whereas high continuation probability RPD play is not.

Materials Science Laboratory - Columnar-to-Equiaxed Transition in Solidification Processing and Microstructure Formation in Casting of Technical Alloys under Diffusive and Magnetically Controlled Convective Conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gandin, Charles-Andre; Ratke, Lorenz

2008-01-01

The Materials Science Laboratory - Columnar-to-Equiaxed Transition in Solidification Processing and Microstructure Formation in Casting of Technical Alloys under Diffusive and Magnetically Controlled Convective Conditions (MSL-CETSOL and MICAST) are two investigations which supports research into metallurgical solidification, semiconductor crystal growth (Bridgman and zone melting), and measurement of thermo-physical properties of materials. This is a cooperative investigation with the European Space Agency (ESA) and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) for accommodation and operation aboard the International Space Station (ISS). Research Summary: Materials Science Laboratory - Columnar-to-Equiaxed Transition in Solidification Processing (CETSOL) and Microstructure Formation in Casting of Technical Alloys under Diffusive and Magnetically Controlled Convective Conditions (MICAST) are two complementary investigations which will examine different growth patterns and evolution of microstructures during crystallization of metallic alloys in microgravity. The aim of these experiments is to deepen the quantitative understanding of the physical principles that govern solidification processes in cast alloys by directional solidification.

Transit visibility zones of the Solar system planets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wells, R.; Poppenhaeger, K.; Watson, C. A.; Heller, R.

2018-01-01

The detection of thousands of extrasolar planets by the transit method naturally raises the question of whether potential extrasolar observers could detect the transits of the Solar system planets. We present a comprehensive analysis of the regions in the sky from where transit events of the Solar system planets can be detected. We specify how many different Solar system planets can be observed from any given point in the sky, and find the maximum number to be three. We report the probabilities of a randomly positioned external observer to be able to observe single and multiple Solar system planet transits; specifically, we find a probability of 2.518 per cent to be able to observe at least one transiting planet, 0.229 per cent for at least two transiting planets, and 0.027 per cent for three transiting planets. We identify 68 known exoplanets that have a favourable geometric perspective to allow transit detections in the Solar system and we show how the ongoing K2 mission will extend this list. We use occurrence rates of exoplanets to estimate that there are 3.2 ± 1.2 and 6.6^{+1.3}_{-0.8} temperate Earth-sized planets orbiting GK and M dwarf stars brighter than V = 13 and 16, respectively, that are located in the Earth's transit zone.

166. ARAIII Fire hose houses (Probably numbered on site as ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

166. ARA-III Fire hose houses (Probably numbered on site as ARA-624). Aerojet-general 880-area/GCRE-701-S-4. Date: February 1958. Ineel index code no. 063-0624-00-013-102695. - Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, Army Reactors Experimental Area, Scoville, Butte County, ID

Radiative one- and two-electron transitions into the empty K shell of He-like ions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kadrekar, Riddhi; Natarajan, L.

2011-12-15

The branching ratios between the single and double electron radiative transitions to empty K shell in He-like ions with 2s2p configuration are evaluated for 15 ions with 4{<=}Z{<=}26 using fully relativistic multiconfiguration Dirac-Fock wavefunctions in the active space approximation. The effects of configuration interaction and Breit contributions on the transition parameters have been analyzed in detail. Though the influence of Breit interaction on the electric dipole allowed one-electron radiative transitions is negligible, it substantially changes the spin-forbidden rates and the two-electron one-photon transition probabilities. Also, while the single electron transition rates are gauge independent, the correlated double-electron probabilities are foundmore » to be gauge sensitive. The probable uncertainties in the computed transition rates have been evaluated by considering the line strengths and the differences between the calculated and experimental transition energies as accuracy indicators. The present results are compared with other available experimental and theoretical data.« less

Exact numerical calculation of fixation probability and time on graphs.

PubMed

Hindersin, Laura; Möller, Marius; Traulsen, Arne; Bauer, Benedikt

2016-12-01

The Moran process on graphs is a popular model to study the dynamics of evolution in a spatially structured population. Exact analytical solutions for the fixation probability and time of a new mutant have been found for only a few classes of graphs so far. Simulations are time-expensive and many realizations are necessary, as the variance of the fixation times is high. We present an algorithm that numerically computes these quantities for arbitrary small graphs by an approach based on the transition matrix. The advantage over simulations is that the calculation has to be executed only once. Building the transition matrix is automated by our algorithm. This enables a fast and interactive study of different graph structures and their effect on fixation probability and time. We provide a fast implementation in C with this note (Hindersin et al., 2016). Our code is very flexible, as it can handle two different update mechanisms (Birth-death or death-Birth), as well as arbitrary directed or undirected graphs. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantum transitions through cosmological singularities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bramberger, Sebastian F.; Hertog, Thomas; Lehners, Jean-Luc; Vreys, Yannick

2017-07-01

In a quantum theory of cosmology spacetime behaves classically only in limited patches of the configuration space on which the wave function of the universe is defined. Quantum transitions can connect classical evolution in different patches. Working in the saddle point approximation and in minisuperspace we compute quantum transitions connecting inflationary histories across a de Sitter like throat or a singularity. This supplies probabilities for how an inflating universe, when evolved backwards, transitions and branches into an ensemble of histories on the opposite side of a quantum bounce. Generalising our analysis to scalar potentials with negative regions we identify saddle points describing a quantum transition between a classically contracting, crunching ekpyrotic phase and an inflationary universe.

Future southcentral US wildfire probability due to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stambaugh, Michael C.; Guyette, Richard P.; Stroh, Esther D.; Struckhoff, Matthew A.; Whittier, Joanna B.

2018-01-01

Globally, changing fire regimes due to climate is one of the greatest threats to ecosystems and society. In this paper, we present projections of future fire probability for the southcentral USA using downscaled climate projections and the Physical Chemistry Fire Frequency Model (PC2FM). Future fire probability is projected to both increase and decrease across the study region of Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. Among all end-of-century projections, change in fire probabilities (CFPs) range from − 51 to + 240%. Greatest absolute increases in fire probability are shown for areas within the range of approximately 75 to 160 cm mean annual precipitation (MAP), regardless of climate model. Although fire is likely to become more frequent across the southcentral USA, spatial patterns may remain similar unless significant increases in precipitation occur, whereby more extensive areas with increased fire probability are predicted. Perhaps one of the most important results is illumination of climate changes where fire probability response (+, −) may deviate (i.e., tipping points). Fire regimes of southcentral US ecosystems occur in a geographic transition zone from reactant- to reaction-limited conditions, potentially making them uniquely responsive to different scenarios of temperature and precipitation changes. Identification and description of these conditions may help anticipate fire regime changes that will affect human health, agriculture, species conservation, and nutrient and water cycling.

SunLine Transit Agency Hydrogen-Powered Transit Buses : Evaluation Results Update

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2007-10-01

In early 2007, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) published a preliminary evaluation results report (January 2006 through November 2006) on hydrogen- and CNG-fueled buses operating at SunLine Transit Agency (SunLine) in Thousand Palms, C...

Theory of rotational transition in atom-diatom chemical reaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakamura, Masato; Nakamura, Hiroki

1989-05-01

Rotational transition in atom-diatom chemical reaction is theoretically studied. A new approximate theory (which we call IOS-DW approximation) is proposed on the basis of the physical idea that rotational transition in reaction is induced by the following two different mechanisms: rotationally inelastic half collision in both initial and final arrangement channels, and coordinate transformation in the reaction zone. This theory gives a fairy compact expression for the state-to-state transition probability. Introducing the additional physically reasonable assumption that reaction (particle rearrangement) takes place in a spatially localized region, we have reduced this expression into a simpler analytical form which can explicitly give overall rotational state distribution in reaction. Numerical application was made to the H+H2 reaction and demonstrated its effectiveness for the simplicity. A further simplified most naive approximation, i.e., independent events approximation was also proposed and demonstrated to work well in the test calculation of H+H2. The overall rotational state distribution is expressed simply by a product sum of the transition probabilities for the three consecutive processes in reaction: inelastic transition in the initial half collision, transition due to particle rearrangement, and inelastic transition in the final half collision.

The General Necessary Condition for the Validity of Dirac's Transition Perturbation Theory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quang, Nguyen Vinh

1996-01-01

For the first time, from the natural requirements for the successive approximation the general necessary condition of validity of the Dirac's method is explicitly established. It is proved that the conception of 'the transition probability per unit time' is not valid. The 'super-platinium rules' for calculating the transition probability are derived for the arbitrarily strong time-independent perturbation case.

Software Transition Project Retrospectives and the Application of SEL Effort Estimation Model and Boehm's COCOMO to Complex Software Transition Projects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McNeill, Justin

1995-01-01

The Multimission Image Processing Subsystem (MIPS) at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) has managed transitions of application software sets from one operating system and hardware platform to multiple operating systems and hardware platforms. As a part of these transitions, cost estimates were generated from the personal experience of in-house developers and managers to calculate the total effort required for such projects. Productivity measures have been collected for two such transitions, one very large and the other relatively small in terms of source lines of code. These estimates used a cost estimation model similar to the Software Engineering Laboratory (SEL) Effort Estimation Model. Experience in transitioning software within JPL MIPS have uncovered a high incidence of interface complexity. Interfaces, both internal and external to individual software applications, have contributed to software transition project complexity, and thus to scheduling difficulties and larger than anticipated design work on software to be ported.

Dynamical quantum phase transitions in discrete time crystals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kosior, Arkadiusz; Sacha, Krzysztof

2018-05-01

Discrete time crystals are related to nonequilibrium dynamics of periodically driven quantum many-body systems where the discrete time-translation symmetry of the Hamiltonian is spontaneously broken into another discrete symmetry. Recently, the concept of phase transitions has been extended to nonequilibrium dynamics of time-independent systems induced by a quantum quench, i.e., a sudden change of some parameter of the Hamiltonian. There, the return probability of a system to the ground state reveals singularities in time which are dubbed dynamical quantum phase transitions. We show that the quantum quench in a discrete time crystal leads to dynamical quantum phase transitions where the return probability of a periodically driven system to a Floquet eigenstate before the quench reveals singularities in time. It indicates that dynamical quantum phase transitions are not restricted to time-independent systems and can be also observed in systems that are periodically driven. We discuss how the phenomenon can be observed in ultracold atomic gases.

Dipole moments and transition probabilities of the i 3Pi sub g-b 3Sigma(+) sub u, c 3Pi sub u-a 3Sigma(+) sub g, and i 3Pi sub g-c 3Pi sub u systems of molecular hydrogen

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Guberman, Steven L.; Dalgarno, A.

1992-01-01

Bonn-Oppenheimer-based ab initio calculations of dipole moments from the i 3Pi sub g-b 3Sigma(+) sub u, c 3Pi sub u-a 3Sigma(+) sub g, and i 3Pi sub g-c 3Pi sub u transitions of H2 have been conducted, to yield a tabulation of the dipole transition probabilities and Franck-Condon factors. These factors are given for transitions originating in the lowest vibrational level of the ground X 1Sigma(+) sub g state.

Local neighborhood transition probability estimation and its use in contextual classification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chittineni, C. B.

1979-01-01

The problem of incorporating spatial or contextual information into classifications is considered. A simple model that describes the spatial dependencies between the neighboring pixels with a single parameter, Theta, is presented. Expressions are derived for updating the posteriori probabilities of the states of nature of the pattern under consideration using information from the neighboring patterns, both for spatially uniform context and for Markov dependencies in terms of Theta. Techniques for obtaining the optimal value of the parameter Theta as a maximum likelihood estimate from the local neighborhood of the pattern under consideration are developed.

Quantum transitions through cosmological singularities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bramberger, Sebastian F.; Lehners, Jean-Luc; Hertog, Thomas

2017-07-01

In a quantum theory of cosmology spacetime behaves classically only in limited patches of the configuration space on which the wave function of the universe is defined. Quantum transitions can connect classical evolution in different patches. Working in the saddle point approximation and in minisuperspace we compute quantum transitions connecting inflationary histories across a de Sitter like throat or a singularity. This supplies probabilities for how an inflating universe, when evolved backwards, transitions and branches into an ensemble of histories on the opposite side of a quantum bounce. Generalising our analysis to scalar potentials with negative regions we identify saddlemore » points describing a quantum transition between a classically contracting, crunching ekpyrotic phase and an inflationary universe.« less

Measurement of K to L shell vacancy transfer probabilities for the elements 46≤ Z≤55 by photoionization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Şimşek, Ö.; Karagöz, D.; Ertugrul, M.

2003-10-01

The K to L shell vacancy transfer probabilities for nine elements in the atomic region 46≤ Z≤55 were determined by measuring the L X-ray yields from targets excited by 5.96 and 59.5 keV photons and using the theoretical K and L shell photoionization cross-sections. The L X-rays from different targets were detected with an Ultra-LEGe detector with very thin polymer window. Present experimental results were compared with the semi empirical values tabulated by Rao et al. [Atomic vacancy distributions product by inner shellionization, Phys. Rev. A 5 (1972) 997-1002] and theoretically calculated values using radiative and radiationless transitions. The radiative transitions of these elements were observed from the relativistic Hartree-Slater model, which was proposed by Scofield [Relativistic Hartree-Slater values for K and L shell X-ray emission rates, At. Data Nucl. Data Tables 14 (1974) 121-137]. The radiationless transitions were observed from the Dirac-Hartree-Slater model, which was proposed by Chen et al. [Relativistic radiationless transition probabilities for atomic K- and L-shells, At. Data Nucl. Data Tables 24 (1979) 13-37]. To the best of our knowledge, these vacancy transfer probabilities are reported for the first time.

Non-linear education gradient across the nutrition transition: mothers' overweight and the population education transition.

PubMed

Jeon, Haram; Salinas, Daniel; Baker, David P

2015-12-01

Previous studies found that developed and developing countries present opposite education-overweight gradients but have not considered the dynamics at different levels of national development. An inverted U-shaped curve is hypothesized to best describe the education-overweight association. It is also hypothesized that as the nutrition transition unfolds within nations the shape of education-overweight curve changes. Multilevel logistic regression was used to estimate the moderating effect of the nutrition transition at the population level on the education-overweight gradient. At the individual level, a non-linear estimate of the education association was used to assess the optimal functional form of the association across the nutrition transition. Twenty-two administrations of the Demographic and Health Survey, collected at different time points across the nutrition transition in nine Latin American/Caribbean countries. Mothers of reproductive age (15-49 years) in each administration (n 143 258). In the pooled sample, a non-linear education gradient on mothers' overweight was found; each additional year of schooling increases the probability of being overweight up to the end of primary schooling, after which each additional year of schooling decreases the probability of overweight. Also, as access to diets high in animal fats and sweeteners increases over time, the curve's critical point moves to lower education levels, the detrimental positive effect of education diminishes, and both occur as the overall risk of overweight increases with greater access to harmful diets. Both hypotheses were supported. As the nutrition transition progresses, the education-overweight curve shifts steadily to a negative linear association with a higher average risk of overweight; and education, at increasingly lower levels, acts as a 'social vaccine' against increasing risk of overweight. These empirical patterns fit the general 'population education transition' curve hypothesis

Examining Spillovers between Long and Short Repeated Prisoner’s Dilemma Games Played in the Laboratory

PubMed Central

Arechar, Antonio A.; Kouchaki, Maryam; Rand, David G.

2018-01-01

We had participants play two sets of repeated Prisoner’s Dilemma (RPD) games, one with a large continuation probability and the other with a small continuation probability, as well as Dictator Games (DGs) before and after the RPDs. We find that, regardless of which is RPD set is played first, participants typically cooperate when the continuation probability is large and defect when the continuation probability is small. However, there is an asymmetry in behavior when transitioning from one continuation probability to the other. When switching from large to small, transient higher levels of cooperation are observed in the early games of the small continuation set. Conversely, when switching from small to large, cooperation is immediately high in the first game of the large continuation set. We also observe that response times increase when transitioning between sets of RPDs, except for altruistic participants transitioning into the set of RPDs with long continuation probabilities. These asymmetries suggest a bias in favor of cooperation. Finally, we examine the link between altruism and RPD play. We find that small continuation probability RPD play is correlated with giving in DGs played before and after the RPDs, whereas high continuation probability RPD play is not. PMID:29809199

Cultural Differences in Young Adults' Perceptions of the Probability of Future Family Life Events.

PubMed

Speirs, Calandra; Huang, Vivian; Konnert, Candace

2017-09-01

Most young adults are exposed to family caregiving; however, little is known about their perceptions of their future caregiving activities such as the probability of becoming a caregiver for their parents or providing assistance in relocating to a nursing home. This study examined the perceived probability of these events among 182 young adults and the following predictors of their probability ratings: gender, ethnicity, work or volunteer experience, experiences with caregiving and nursing homes, expectations about these transitions, and filial piety. Results indicated that Asian or South Asian participants rated the probability of being a caregiver as significantly higher than Caucasian participants, and the probability of placing a parent in a nursing home as significantly lower. Filial piety was the strongest predictor of the probability of these life events, and it mediated the relationship between ethnicity and probability ratings. These findings indicate the significant role of filial piety in shaping perceptions of future life events.

Use of Mental Health Services in Transition Age Youth with Bipolar Disorder

PubMed Central

Hower, Heather; Case, Brady G.; Hoeppner, Bettina; Yen, Shirley; Goldstein, Tina; Goldstein, Benjamin; Birmaher, Boris; Weinstock, Lauren; Topor, David; Hunt, Jeffrey; Strober, Michael; Ryan, Neal; Axelson, David; Gill, Mary Kay; Keller, Martin B.

2013-01-01

Objectives There is concern that treatment of serious mental illness in the United States declines precipitously following legal emancipation at age 18 years and transition from specialty youth clinical settings. We examined age transition effects on treatment utilization in a sample of youth with bipolar disorder. Methods Youth with bipolar disorder (N = 413) 7–18 years of age were assessed approximately twice per year (mean interval 8.2 months) for at least 4 years. Annual use of any individual, group, and family therapy, psychopharmacology visits, and hospitalization at each year of age, and monthly use from ages 17 through 19 years, were examined. The effect of age transition to 18 years on monthly visit probability was tested in the subsample with observed transitions (n = 204). Putative sociodemographic moderators and the influence of clinical course were assessed. Results Visit probabilities for the most common modalities—psychopharmacology, individual psychotherapy, and home-based care— generally fell from childhood to young adulthood. For example, the annual probability of at least one psychopharmacology visit was 97% at age 8, 75% at age 17, 60% at age 19, and 46% by age 22. Treatment probabilities fell in transition-age youth from age 17 through 19, but a specific transition effect at age 18 was not found. Declines did not vary based on sociodemographic characteristics and were not explained by changing severity of the bipolar illness or functioning. Conclusions Mental health treatment declined with age in this sample of youth with bipolar disorder, but reductions were not concentrated during or after the transition to age 18 years. Declines were unrelated to symptom severity or impairment. PMID:24241500

A photometric search for transiting planets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baliber, Nairn Reese

In the decade since the discovery of the first planet orbiting a main-sequence star other than the Sun, more than 160 planets have been detected in orbit around other stars, most of them discovered by measuring the velocity of the reflexive motion of their parent stars caused by the gravitational pull of the planets. These discoveries produced a population of planets much different to the ones in our Solar System and created interest in other methods to detect these planets. One such method is searching for transits, the slight photometric dimming of stars caused by a close-orbiting, Jupiter-sized planet passing between a star and our line of sight once per orbit. We report results from TeMPEST, the Texas, McDonald Photometric Extrasolar Search for Transits, a transit survey conducted with the McDonald Observatory 0.76 m Prime Focus Corrector (PFC). We monitored five fields of stars in the plane of the Milky Way over the course of two and a half years. We created a photometry pipeline to perform high-precision differential photometry on all of the images, and used a software detection algorithm to detect transit signals in the light curves. Although no transits were found, we calculated our detection probability by determining the fraction of the stars monitored by TeMPEST which were suitable to show transits, measuring the probability of detecting transit signals based on the temporal coverage of our fields, and measuring our detection efficiency by inserting false transits into TeMPEST data to see what fraction could be recovered by our automatic detection software. We conclude that in our entire data set, we generated an effective sample of 2660 stars, a sample in which if any star is showing a transit, it would have been detected. We found no convincing transits in our data, but current statistics from radial velocity surveys indicate that only one in about 1300 of these stars should be showing transits. These numbers are consistent with the lack of transits

Geomagnetic polarity transitions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merrill, Ronald T.; McFadden, Phillip L.

1999-05-01

reasonable to draw the following conclusions with varying degrees of confidence. There appears to be a substantial decrease in the mean intensity of the dipole field during a transition to ˜25% of its usual value. The duration of an average geomagnetic polarity transition is not well known but probably lies between 1000 and 8000 years. Values outside these bounds have been reported, but we give reasons as to why such outliers are likely to be artifacts. The reversal process is probably longer than the manifestation of the reversal at Earth's surface as recorded in paleomagnetic directional data. Convection hiatus during a geomagnetic polarity transition seems unlikely, and free-decay models for reversals appear to be generally incompatible with the data. This implies that certain theorems in dynamo theory, such as Cowling's theorem, should not be invoked to explain the origin of reversals. Unfortunately, the detailed description of directional changes during transitions remains controversial. Contrary to common belief, certain low-degree nondipole fields can produce significant longitudinal confinement of virtual geomagnetic poles (VGP) during a transition. The data are currently inadequate to refute or verify claims of longitudinal dipole confinement, VGP clustering, or other systematics during polarity transitions.

Betting on Illusory Patterns: Probability Matching in Habitual Gamblers.

PubMed

Gaissmaier, Wolfgang; Wilke, Andreas; Scheibehenne, Benjamin; McCanney, Paige; Barrett, H Clark

2016-03-01

Why do people gamble? A large body of research suggests that cognitive distortions play an important role in pathological gambling. Many of these distortions are specific cases of a more general misperception of randomness, specifically of an illusory perception of patterns in random sequences. In this article, we provide further evidence for the assumption that gamblers are particularly prone to perceiving illusory patterns. In particular, we compared habitual gamblers to a matched sample of community members with regard to how much they exhibit the choice anomaly 'probability matching'. Probability matching describes the tendency to match response proportions to outcome probabilities when predicting binary outcomes. It leads to a lower expected accuracy than the maximizing strategy of predicting the most likely event on each trial. Previous research has shown that an illusory perception of patterns in random sequences fuels probability matching. So does impulsivity, which is also reported to be higher in gamblers. We therefore hypothesized that gamblers will exhibit more probability matching than non-gamblers, which was confirmed in a controlled laboratory experiment. Additionally, gamblers scored much lower than community members on the cognitive reflection task, which indicates higher impulsivity. This difference could account for the difference in probability matching between the samples. These results suggest that gamblers are more willing to bet impulsively on perceived illusory patterns.

Universal phase transition in community detectability under a stochastic block model.

PubMed

Chen, Pin-Yu; Hero, Alfred O

2015-03-01

We prove the existence of an asymptotic phase-transition threshold on community detectability for the spectral modularity method [M. E. J. Newman, Phys. Rev. E 74, 036104 (2006) and Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. (USA) 103, 8577 (2006)] under a stochastic block model. The phase transition on community detectability occurs as the intercommunity edge connection probability p grows. This phase transition separates a subcritical regime of small p, where modularity-based community detection successfully identifies the communities, from a supercritical regime of large p where successful community detection is impossible. We show that, as the community sizes become large, the asymptotic phase-transition threshold p* is equal to √[p1p2], where pi(i=1,2) is the within-community edge connection probability. Thus the phase-transition threshold is universal in the sense that it does not depend on the ratio of community sizes. The universal phase-transition phenomenon is validated by simulations for moderately sized communities. Using the derived expression for the phase-transition threshold, we propose an empirical method for estimating this threshold from real-world data.

Computation of rare transitions in the barotropic quasi-geostrophic equations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laurie, Jason; Bouchet, Freddy

2015-01-01

We investigate the theoretical and numerical computation of rare transitions in simple geophysical turbulent models. We consider the barotropic quasi-geostrophic and two-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations in regimes where bistability between two coexisting large-scale attractors exist. By means of large deviations and instanton theory with the use of an Onsager-Machlup path integral formalism for the transition probability, we show how one can directly compute the most probable transition path between two coexisting attractors analytically in an equilibrium (Langevin) framework and numerically otherwise. We adapt a class of numerical optimization algorithms known as minimum action methods to simple geophysical turbulent models. We show that by numerically minimizing an appropriate action functional in a large deviation limit, one can predict the most likely transition path for a rare transition between two states. By considering examples where theoretical predictions can be made, we show that the minimum action method successfully predicts the most likely transition path. Finally, we discuss the application and extension of such numerical optimization schemes to the computation of rare transitions observed in direct numerical simulations and experiments and to other, more complex, turbulent systems.

Recent Advances in Model-Assisted Probability of Detection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thompson, R. Bruce; Brasche, Lisa J.; Lindgren, Eric; Swindell, Paul; Winfree, William P.

2009-01-01

The increased role played by probability of detection (POD) in structural integrity programs, combined with the significant time and cost associated with the purely empirical determination of POD, provides motivation for alternate means to estimate this important metric of NDE techniques. One approach to make the process of POD estimation more efficient is to complement limited empirical experiments with information from physics-based models of the inspection process or controlled laboratory experiments. The Model-Assisted Probability of Detection (MAPOD) Working Group was formed by the Air Force Research Laboratory, the FAA Technical Center, and NASA to explore these possibilities. Since the 2004 inception of the MAPOD Working Group, 11 meetings have been held in conjunction with major NDE conferences. This paper will review the accomplishments of this group, which includes over 90 members from around the world. Included will be a discussion of strategies developed to combine physics-based and empirical understanding, draft protocols that have been developed to guide application of the strategies, and demonstrations that have been or are being carried out in a number of countries. The talk will conclude with a discussion of future directions, which will include documentation of benefits via case studies, development of formal protocols for engineering practice, as well as a number of specific technical issues.

Pretest expectations strongly influence interpretation of abnormal laboratory results and further management

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Abnormal results of diagnostic laboratory tests can be difficult to interpret when disease probability is very low. Although most physicians generally do not use Bayesian calculations to interpret abnormal results, their estimates of pretest disease probability and reasons for ordering diagnostic tests may - in a more implicit manner - influence test interpretation and further management. A better understanding of this influence may help to improve test interpretation and management. Therefore, the objective of this study was to examine the influence of physicians' pretest disease probability estimates, and their reasons for ordering diagnostic tests, on test result interpretation, posttest probability estimates and further management. Methods Prospective study among 87 primary care physicians in the Netherlands who each ordered laboratory tests for 25 patients. They recorded their reasons for ordering the tests (to exclude or confirm disease or to reassure patients) and their pretest disease probability estimates. Upon receiving the results they recorded how they interpreted the tests, their posttest probability estimates and further management. Logistic regression was used to analyse whether the pretest probability and the reasons for ordering tests influenced the interpretation, the posttest probability estimates and the decisions on further management. Results The physicians ordered tests for diagnostic purposes for 1253 patients; 742 patients had an abnormal result (64%). Physicians' pretest probability estimates and their reasons for ordering diagnostic tests influenced test interpretation, posttest probability estimates and further management. Abnormal results of tests ordered for reasons of reassurance were significantly more likely to be interpreted as normal (65.8%) compared to tests ordered to confirm a diagnosis or exclude a disease (27.7% and 50.9%, respectively). The odds for abnormal results to be interpreted as normal were much lower when

Pretest expectations strongly influence interpretation of abnormal laboratory results and further management.

PubMed

Houben, Paul H H; van der Weijden, Trudy; Winkens, Bjorn; Winkens, Ron A G; Grol, Richard P T M

2010-02-16

Abnormal results of diagnostic laboratory tests can be difficult to interpret when disease probability is very low. Although most physicians generally do not use Bayesian calculations to interpret abnormal results, their estimates of pretest disease probability and reasons for ordering diagnostic tests may--in a more implicit manner--influence test interpretation and further management. A better understanding of this influence may help to improve test interpretation and management. Therefore, the objective of this study was to examine the influence of physicians' pretest disease probability estimates, and their reasons for ordering diagnostic tests, on test result interpretation, posttest probability estimates and further management. Prospective study among 87 primary care physicians in the Netherlands who each ordered laboratory tests for 25 patients. They recorded their reasons for ordering the tests (to exclude or confirm disease or to reassure patients) and their pretest disease probability estimates. Upon receiving the results they recorded how they interpreted the tests, their posttest probability estimates and further management. Logistic regression was used to analyse whether the pretest probability and the reasons for ordering tests influenced the interpretation, the posttest probability estimates and the decisions on further management. The physicians ordered tests for diagnostic purposes for 1253 patients; 742 patients had an abnormal result (64%). Physicians' pretest probability estimates and their reasons for ordering diagnostic tests influenced test interpretation, posttest probability estimates and further management. Abnormal results of tests ordered for reasons of reassurance were significantly more likely to be interpreted as normal (65.8%) compared to tests ordered to confirm a diagnosis or exclude a disease (27.7% and 50.9%, respectively). The odds for abnormal results to be interpreted as normal were much lower when the physician estimated a

Probability workshop to be better in probability topic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asmat, Aszila; Ujang, Suriyati; Wahid, Sharifah Norhuda Syed

2015-02-01

The purpose of the present study was to examine whether statistics anxiety and attitudes towards probability topic among students in higher education level have an effect on their performance. 62 fourth semester science students were given statistics anxiety questionnaires about their perception towards probability topic. Result indicated that students' performance in probability topic is not related to anxiety level, which means that the higher level in statistics anxiety will not cause lower score in probability topic performance. The study also revealed that motivated students gained from probability workshop ensure that their performance in probability topic shows a positive improvement compared before the workshop. In addition there exists a significance difference in students' performance between genders with better achievement among female students compared to male students. Thus, more initiatives in learning programs with different teaching approaches is needed to provide useful information in improving student learning outcome in higher learning institution.

Completeness and timeliness of electronic vs. conventional laboratory reporting for communicable disease surveillance--Oklahoma, 2011.

PubMed

Johnson, Matthew G; Williams, Jean; Lee, Anthony; Bradley, Kristy K

2014-05-01

The Health Information Technology for Economic and Clinical Health (HITECH) Act encourages the meaningful use of certified electronic health record technology. A HITECH-compliant core component is nationwide electronic laboratory reporting (ELR) implementation for communicable disease surveillance. In Oklahoma, laboratories with ≥400 positive tests/year for reportable diseases must use ELR. Of 18 such laboratories, two have adopted ELR. We compared completeness and timeliness of ELR reports from these two laboratories with conventional reports from all other Oklahoma laboratories. We retrospectively reviewed confirmed reportable disease cases for January 1-December 31, 2011, excluding tuberculosis, hepatitis, sexually transmitted infections, diseases without laboratory diagnoses, and immediately reportable diseases. Probable reportable tickborne disease cases were included. We compared ELR with conventional reporting (i.e., mail, fax, telephone, and Internet). We assessed data completeness based on eight demographic and two laboratory fields in each disease report and timeliness by percentage of cases reported in ≤1 business day. Overall, 1,867 reports met the inclusion criteria; 24% of these reports had been submitted by ELR. Data completeness was 90% for ELR and 95% for conventional reporting. Patient addresses accounted for 97% of the missing data fields for ELR reports. Timeliness was 91% for ELR and 87% for conventional reports. Although early in the transition to ELR compliance in Oklahoma, ELR has already yielded improved timeliness for communicable disease surveillance. However, ELR did not yield more complete reports than conventional reporting. Requiring specific demographic data fields for ELR reports can improve the completeness of ELR.

Exploring Agricultural Livelihood Transitions with an Agent-Based Virtual Laboratory: Global Forces to Local Decision-Making

PubMed Central

Magliocca, Nicholas R.; Brown, Daniel G.; Ellis, Erle C.

2013-01-01

Rural populations are undergoing rapid changes in both their livelihoods and land uses, with associated impacts on ecosystems, global biogeochemistry, and climate change. A primary challenge is, thus, to explain these shifts in terms of the actors and processes operating within a variety of land systems in order to understand how land users might respond locally to future changes in broader-scale environmental and economic conditions. Using ‘induced intensification’ theory as a benchmark, we develop a generalized agent-based model to investigate mechanistic explanations of relationships between agricultural intensity and population density, environmental suitability, and market influence. Land-use and livelihood decisions modeled from basic micro-economic theories generated spatial and temporal patterns of agricultural intensification consistent with predictions of induced intensification theory. Further, agent actions in response to conditions beyond those described by induced intensification theory were explored, revealing that interactions among environmental constraints, population pressure, and market influence may produce transitions to multiple livelihood regimes of varying market integration. The result is new hypotheses that could modify and enrich understanding of the classic relationship between agricultural intensity and population density. The strength of this agent-based model and the experimental results is the generalized form of the decision-making processes underlying land-use and livelihood transitions, creating the prospect of a virtual laboratory for systematically generating hypotheses of how agent decisions and interactions relate to observed land-use and livelihood patterns across diverse land systems. PMID:24039892

Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Transit Bus Evaluations : Joint Evaluation Plan for the U.S. Department of Energy and the Federal Transit Administration

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-05-01

This document describes the hydrogen transit bus evaluations performed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the U.S. Department of Transportations Federal Transit Administration (...

False Positive Probabilities for all Kepler Objects of Interest: 1284 Newly Validated Planets and 428 Likely False Positives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morton, Timothy D.; Bryson, Stephen T.; Coughlin, Jeffrey L.; Rowe, Jason F.; Ravichandran, Ganesh; Petigura, Erik A.; Haas, Michael R.; Batalha, Natalie M.

2016-05-01

We present astrophysical false positive probability calculations for every Kepler Object of Interest (KOI)—the first large-scale demonstration of a fully automated transiting planet validation procedure. Out of 7056 KOIs, we determine that 1935 have probabilities <1% of being astrophysical false positives, and thus may be considered validated planets. Of these, 1284 have not yet been validated or confirmed by other methods. In addition, we identify 428 KOIs that are likely to be false positives, but have not yet been identified as such, though some of these may be a result of unidentified transit timing variations. A side product of these calculations is full stellar property posterior samplings for every host star, modeled as single, binary, and triple systems. These calculations use vespa, a publicly available Python package that is able to be easily applied to any transiting exoplanet candidate.

Non-linear education gradient across the nutrition transition: mothers’ overweight and the population education transition

PubMed Central

Salinas, Daniel; Baker, David P

2015-01-01

Objective Previous studies found that developed and developing countries present opposite education-overweight gradients but have not considered the dynamics at different levels of national development. A U-inverted curve is hypothesized to best describe the education-overweight association. It is also hypothesized that as the nutrition transition unfolds within nations the shape of education-overweight curve change. Design Multi-level logistic regression estimates the moderating effect of the nutrition transition at the population level on education-overweight gradient. At the individual level, a non-linear estimate of the education association assesses the optimal functional form of the association across the nutrition transition. Setting Twenty-two administrations of the Demographic and Health Survey, collected at different time points across the nutrition transition in nine Latin American/Caribbean countries. Subjects Mothers of reproductive age (15–49) in each administration (n 143,258). Results In the pooled sample, a non-linear education gradient on mothers‘ overweight is found; each additional year of schooling increases the probability of being overweight up to the end of primary schooling, after which each additional year of schooling decreases the probability of overweight. Also, as access to diets of high animal fats and sweeteners increases over time, the curve‘s critical point moves to lower education levels, the detrimental positive effect of education diminishes, and both occur as the overall risk of overweight increases with greater access to harmful diets. Conclusions Both hypotheses are supported. As the nutrition transition progresses, the education-overweight curve steadily shifts to a negative linear association with higher average risk of overweight; and education, at increasingly lower levels, acts as a “social vaccine” against increasing risk of overweight. These empirical patterns fit the general “population education

From continuous to discontinuous transitions in social diffusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tuzón, Paula; Fernández-Gracia, Juan; Eguíluz, Víctor M.

2018-03-01

Models of social diffusion reflect processes of how new products, ideas or behaviors are adopted in a population. These models typically lead to a continuous or a discontinuous phase transition of the number of adopters as a function of a control parameter. We explore a simple model of social adoption where the agents can be in two states, either adopters or non-adopters, and can switch between these two states interacting with other agents through a network. The probability of an agent to switch from non-adopter to adopter depends on the number of adopters in her network neighborhood, the adoption threshold T and the adoption coefficient a, two parameters defining a Hill function. In contrast the transition from adopter to non-adopter is spontaneous at a certain rate μ. In a mean-field approach, we derive the governing ordinary differential equations and show that the nature of the transition between the global non-adoption and global adoption regimes depends mostly on the balance between the probability to adopt with one and two adopters. The transition changes from continuous, via a transcritical bifurcation, to discontinuous, via a combination of a saddle-node and a transcritical bifurcation, through a supercritical pitchfork bifurcation. We characterize the full parameter space. Finally, we compare our analytical results with Montecarlo simulations on annealed and quenched degree regular networks, showing a better agreement for the annealed case. Our results show how a simple model is able to capture two seemingly very different types of transitions, i.e., continuous and discontinuous and thus unifies underlying dynamics for different systems. Furthermore the form of the adoption probability used here is based on empirical measurements.

Fuel Cell Transit Buses : ThunderPower Bus Evaluation at SunLine Transit Agency

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2003-11-01

This report provides an overview of the ThunderPower fuel cell bus demonstration at SunLine Transit Agency in Thousand Palms, California. Under contract with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) evaluat...

Phase transition in the countdown problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lacasa, Lucas; Luque, Bartolo

2012-07-01

We present a combinatorial decision problem, inspired by the celebrated quiz show called Countdown, that involves the computation of a given target number T from a set of k randomly chosen integers along with a set of arithmetic operations. We find that the probability of winning the game evidences a threshold phenomenon that can be understood in the terms of an algorithmic phase transition as a function of the set size k. Numerical simulations show that such probability sharply transitions from zero to one at some critical value of the control parameter, hence separating the algorithm's parameter space in different phases. We also find that the system is maximally efficient close to the critical point. We derive analytical expressions that match the numerical results for finite size and permit us to extrapolate the behavior in the thermodynamic limit.

Aluminum oxide in stellar spectra - An infrared electronic transition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Luck, R. E.; Lambert, D. L.

1974-01-01

Review of recent research on the possibility of detecting the infrared electronic transition of aluminum oxide in the spectra of cool stars. It is shown that this transition may be of considerable significance for the study of Mira-type variables. Specific targets of further laboratory investigation of the transition are pointed out.

Phase transitions in high magnetic fields

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Arko, A.J.; Beers, C.J.; van Deursen, A.P.J.

1982-08-01

The purpose of this paper is to summarize some of the research activities recently performed at the Laboratorium voor Hoge Magneetvelden at the University of Nijmegen. The scope here and unifying aspect is magnetically induced phase transitions. Here we summarize transitions in the settling velocity of paramagnetic aggregates, suppression of spin fluctuations in UAl/sub 2/, the phase diagram of a ferroelectric chiral smectic liquid crystal near the Lifshitz point and the transition from 3D to 2D conduction in a GaAs FET. In no way does this represent a complete review of transitions, but rather a summary of phase transitions observedmore » at the magnet laboratory during the past year. 6 figures.« less

Assessing agreement with relative area under the coverage probability curve.

PubMed

Barnhart, Huiman X

2016-08-15

There has been substantial statistical literature in the last several decades on assessing agreement, and coverage probability approach was selected as a preferred index for assessing and improving measurement agreement in a core laboratory setting. With this approach, a satisfactory agreement is based on pre-specified high satisfactory coverage probability (e.g., 95%), given one pre-specified acceptable difference. In practice, we may want to have quality control on more than one pre-specified differences, or we may simply want to summarize the agreement based on differences up to a maximum acceptable difference. We propose to assess agreement via the coverage probability curve that provides a full spectrum of measurement error at various differences/disagreement. Relative area under the coverage probability curve is proposed for the summary of overall agreement, and this new summary index can be used for comparison of different intra-methods or inter-methods/labs/observers' agreement. Simulation studies and a blood pressure example are used for illustration of the methodology. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Isothermal lipid phase transitions.

PubMed

Cevc, G

1991-03-01

In liotropic lipid systems phase transitions can be induced isothermally by changing the solvent concentration or composition; alternatively, lipid composition can be modified by (bio)chemical means. The probability for isothermal phase transitions increases with the decreasing transition entropy; it is proportional to the magnitude of the transition temperature shift caused by transformation-inducing system variation. Manipulations causing large thermodynamic effects, such as lipid (de)hydration, binding of protons or divalent ions and macromolecular adsorption, but also close bilayer approach are, therefore, likely to cause structural lipid change(s) at a constant temperature. Net lipid charges enhance the membrane susceptibility to salt-induced isothermal phase transitions; a large proportion of this effect is due to the bilayer dehydration, however, rather than being a consequence of the decreased Coulombic electrostatic interactions. Membrane propensity for isothermal phase transitions, consequently, always increases with the hydrophilicity of the lipid heads, as well as with the desaturation and shortening of the lipid chains. Upon a phase change at a constant temperature, some of the interfacially bound solutes (e.g. protons or calcium) are released in the solution. Membrane permeability and fusogenicity simultaneously increase. In mixed systems, isothermal phase transitions, moreover, may result in lateral phase separation. All this opens up ways for the involvement of isothermal phase transitions in the regulation of biological processes.

Cytologic diagnosis: expression of probability by clinical pathologists.

PubMed

Christopher, Mary M; Hotz, Christine S

2004-01-01

Clinical pathologists use descriptive terms or modifiers to express the probability or likelihood of a cytologic diagnosis. Words are imprecise in meaning, however, and may be used and interpreted differently by pathologists and clinicians. The goals of this study were to 1) assess the frequency of use of 18 modifiers, 2) determine the probability of a positive diagnosis implied by the modifiers, 3) identify preferred modifiers for different levels of probability, 4) ascertain the importance of factors that affect expression of diagnostic certainty, and 5) evaluate differences based on gender, employment, and experience. We surveyed 202 clinical pathologists who were board-certified by the American College of Veterinary Pathologists (Clinical Pathology). Surveys were distributed in October 2001 and returned by e-mail, fax, or surface mail over a 2-month period. Results were analyzed by parametric and nonparametric tests. Survey response rate was 47.5% (n = 96) and primarily included clinical pathologists at veterinary schools (n = 58) and diagnostic laboratories (n = 31). Eleven of 18 terms were used "often" or "sometimes" by >/= 50% of respondents. Broad variability was found in the probability assigned to each term, especially those with median values of 75 to 90%. Preferred modifiers for 7 numerical probabilities ranging from 0 to 100% included 68 unique terms; however, a set of 10 terms was used by >/= 50% of respondents. Cellularity and quality of the sample, experience of the pathologist, and implications of the diagnosis were the most important factors affecting the expression of probability. Because of wide discrepancy in the implied likelihood of a diagnosis using words, defined terminology and controlled vocabulary may be useful in improving communication and the quality of data in cytology reporting.

The condition of a finite Markov chain and perturbation bounds for the limiting probabilities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meyer, C. D., Jr.

1979-01-01

The inequalities bounding the relative error the norm of w- w squiggly/the norm of w are exhibited by a very simple function of E and A. Let T denote the transition matrix of an ergodic chain, C, and let A = I - T. Let E be a perturbation matrix such that T squiggly = T - E is also the transition matrix of an ergodic chain, C squiggly. Let w and w squiggly denote the limiting probability (row) vectors for C and C squiggly. The inequality is the best one possible. This bound can be significant in the numerical determination of the limiting probabilities for an ergodic chain. In addition to presenting a sharp bound for the norm of w-w squiggly/the norm of w an explicit expression for w squiggly will be derived in which w squiggly is given as a function of E, A, w and some other related terms.

Are Einstein's transition probabilities for spontaneous emission constant in plasmas?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Griem, H. R.; Huang, Y. W.; Wang, J.-S.; Moreno, J. C.

1991-01-01

An investigation is conducted with a ruby laser to experimentally confirm the quenching of spontaneous emission coefficients and propose a mechanism for the phenomenon. Results of previous experiments are examined to determine the consistency and validity of interpretations of the spontaneous emissions. For the C IV 3s-3p and 2s-3p transitions, the line-intensity ratios are found to be dependent on the separation of the laser from the target. Density gradients and Stark broadening are proposed to interpret the results in a way that does not invalidate the Einstein A values. The interpretation is extended to C III and N V, both of which demonstrate similar changes in A values in previous experiments. The apparent quenching of Ar II by photon collisions is explained by Rabi oscillations and power broadening in the argon-ion laser cavity. It is concluded that the changes in A values cannot result from dense plasma effects.

Saccade selection when reward probability is dynamically manipulated using Markov chains

PubMed Central

Lovejoy, Lee P.; Krauzlis, Richard J.

2012-01-01

Markov chains (stochastic processes where probabilities are assigned based on the previous outcome) are commonly used to examine the transitions between behavioral states, such as those that occur during foraging or social interactions. However, relatively little is known about how well primates can incorporate knowledge about Markov chains into their behavior. Saccadic eye movements are an example of a simple behavior influenced by information about probability, and thus are good candidates for testing whether subjects can learn Markov chains. In addition, when investigating the influence of probability on saccade target selection, the use of Markov chains could provide an alternative method that avoids confounds present in other task designs. To investigate these possibilities, we evaluated human behavior on a task in which stimulus reward probabilities were assigned using a Markov chain. On each trial, the subject selected one of four identical stimuli by saccade; after selection, feedback indicated the rewarded stimulus. Each session consisted of 200–600 trials, and on some sessions, the reward magnitude varied. On sessions with a uniform reward, subjects (n = 6) learned to select stimuli at a frequency close to reward probability, which is similar to human behavior on matching or probability classification tasks. When informed that a Markov chain assigned reward probabilities, subjects (n = 3) learned to select the greatest reward probability more often, bringing them close to behavior that maximizes reward. On sessions where reward magnitude varied across stimuli, subjects (n = 6) demonstrated preferences for both greater reward probability and greater reward magnitude, resulting in a preference for greater expected value (the product of reward probability and magnitude). These results demonstrate that Markov chains can be used to dynamically assign probabilities that are rapidly exploited by human subjects during saccade target selection. PMID:18330552

Saccade selection when reward probability is dynamically manipulated using Markov chains.

PubMed

Nummela, Samuel U; Lovejoy, Lee P; Krauzlis, Richard J

2008-05-01

Markov chains (stochastic processes where probabilities are assigned based on the previous outcome) are commonly used to examine the transitions between behavioral states, such as those that occur during foraging or social interactions. However, relatively little is known about how well primates can incorporate knowledge about Markov chains into their behavior. Saccadic eye movements are an example of a simple behavior influenced by information about probability, and thus are good candidates for testing whether subjects can learn Markov chains. In addition, when investigating the influence of probability on saccade target selection, the use of Markov chains could provide an alternative method that avoids confounds present in other task designs. To investigate these possibilities, we evaluated human behavior on a task in which stimulus reward probabilities were assigned using a Markov chain. On each trial, the subject selected one of four identical stimuli by saccade; after selection, feedback indicated the rewarded stimulus. Each session consisted of 200-600 trials, and on some sessions, the reward magnitude varied. On sessions with a uniform reward, subjects (n = 6) learned to select stimuli at a frequency close to reward probability, which is similar to human behavior on matching or probability classification tasks. When informed that a Markov chain assigned reward probabilities, subjects (n = 3) learned to select the greatest reward probability more often, bringing them close to behavior that maximizes reward. On sessions where reward magnitude varied across stimuli, subjects (n = 6) demonstrated preferences for both greater reward probability and greater reward magnitude, resulting in a preference for greater expected value (the product of reward probability and magnitude). These results demonstrate that Markov chains can be used to dynamically assign probabilities that are rapidly exploited by human subjects during saccade target selection.

A short course on measure and probability theories

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pebay, Philippe Pierre

2004-02-01

This brief Introduction to Measure Theory, and its applications to Probabilities, corresponds to the lecture notes of a seminar series given at Sandia National Laboratories in Livermore, during the spring of 2003. The goal of these seminars was to provide a minimal background to Computational Combustion scientists interested in using more advanced stochastic concepts and methods, e.g., in the context of uncertainty quantification. Indeed, most mechanical engineering curricula do not provide students with formal training in the field of probability, and even in less in measure theory. However, stochastic methods have been used more and more extensively in the pastmore » decade, and have provided more successful computational tools. Scientists at the Combustion Research Facility of Sandia National Laboratories have been using computational stochastic methods for years. Addressing more and more complex applications, and facing difficult problems that arose in applications showed the need for a better understanding of theoretical foundations. This is why the seminar series was launched, and these notes summarize most of the concepts which have been discussed. The goal of the seminars was to bring a group of mechanical engineers and computational combustion scientists to a full understanding of N. WIENER'S polynomial chaos theory. Therefore, these lectures notes are built along those lines, and are not intended to be exhaustive. In particular, the author welcomes any comments or criticisms.« less

Collisional Dynamics of the Cesium D1 and D2 Transitions

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-09-01

37 14. Comparison of Phase Changing Probability and Polarizability ...Phase Changing Probability and Polarizability for D2 Transition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60 25...theoretically determined the values for broadening and shift rates for cesium with Argon , Krypton, and Xenon from the interatomic potentials [27]. The rates

Laboratory Exercise to Evaluate Hay Preservatives.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McGraw, R. L.; And Others

1990-01-01

Presented is a laboratory exercise designed to demonstrate the effects of moisture on hay preservation products in a manner that does not require large amounts of equipment or instructor time. Materials, procedures, and probable results are discussed. (CW)

Phase transitions in Nowak Sznajd opinion dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wołoszyn, Maciej; Stauffer, Dietrich; Kułakowski, Krzysztof

2007-05-01

The Nowak modification of the Sznajd opinion dynamics model on the square lattice assumes that with probability β the opinions flip due to mass-media advertising from down to up, and vice versa. Besides, with probability α the Sznajd rule applies that a neighbour pair agreeing in its two opinions convinces all its six neighbours of that opinion. Our Monte Carlo simulations and mean-field theory find sharp phase transitions in the parameter space.

Transitioning cytomegalovirus viral load testing from a laboratory developed test to the cobas® CMV quantitative nucleic acid assay.

PubMed

Payne, Michael; Merrick, Linda; Lawson, Tanya; Ritchie, Gordon; Lowe, Christopher

2018-04-16

Commutability between human cytomegalovirus (CMV) viral load assays (VLA) is poor, despite the development of a WHO CMV International Standard (CMV IS). We evaluated a new CMV VLA, cobas ® CMV, as compared to our current laboratory developed CMV VLA (LDT), for clinical use. Both the LDT and cobas ® CMV were run in parallel for 109 patient samples. In addition, 104 replicates, over 8 dilutions, of the CMV IS were tested. Conversion factors and correlation between the two assays were calculated. The correlation coefficient between the LDT and cobas ® CMV was 0.91 for patient samples. The Bland-Altman graph displayed a systematic bias of +0.31 log 10 for the cobas ® CMV as compared to the LDT. The bias was greater for lower CMV viral loads. This increase in CMV viral loads was not seen with testing of the CMV IS dilutions by both the LDT and cobas ® CMV. CMV VLA inter-assay commutability continues to be an issue when switching CMV testing platforms and requires communication between the laboratory and clinicians during the transition period to prevent misinterpretation of results. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Flight and wind-tunnel correlation of boundary-layer transition on the AEDC transition cone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fisher, D. L.; Dougherty, N. S., Jr.

1982-01-01

Transition and fluctuating surface pressure data were acquired on a 10 deg included angle cone, using the same instrumentation and technique over a wide range of Mach and Reynolds numbers in 23 wind tunnels and in flight. Transition was detected with a traversing pitot-pressure probe in contact with the surface. The surface pressure fluctuations were measured with microphones set flush in the cone surface. Good correlation of end of transition Reynolds number RE(T) was obtained between data from the lower disturbance wind tunnels and flight up to a boundary layer edge Mach number, M(e) = 1.2. Above M(e) = 1.2, however, this correlation deteriorates, with the flight Re(T) being 25 to 30% higher than the wind tunnel Re(T) at M(e) = 1.6. The end of transition Reynolds number correlated within + or - 20% with the surface pressure fluctuations, according to the equation used. Broad peaks in the power spectral density distributions indicated that Tollmien-Schlichting waves were the probable cause of transition in flight and in some of the wind tunnels.

A survey on faculty perspectives on the transition to a biochemistry course-based undergraduate research experience laboratory.

PubMed

Craig, Paul A

2017-09-01

It will always remain a goal of an undergraduate biochemistry laboratory course to engage students hands-on in a wide range of biochemistry laboratory experiences. In 2006, our research group initiated a project for in silico prediction of enzyme function based only on the 3D coordinates of the more than 3800 proteins "of unknown function" in the Protein Data Bank, many of which resulted from the Protein Structure Initiative. Students have used the ProMOL plugin to the PyMOL molecular graphics environment along with BLAST, Pfam, and Dali to predict protein functions. As young scientists, these undergraduate research students wanted to see if their predictions were correct and so they developed an approach for in vitro testing of predicted enzyme function that included literature exploration, selection of a suitable assay and the search for commercially available substrates. Over the past two years, a team of faculty members from seven different campuses (California Polytechnic San Luis Obispo, Hope College, Oral Roberts University, Rochester Institute of Technology, St. Mary's University, Ursinus College, and Purdue University) have transferred this approach to the undergraduate biochemistry teaching laboratory as a Course-based Undergraduate Research Experience. A series of ten course modules and eight instructional videos have been created (www.promol.org/home/basil-modules-1) and the group is now expanding these resources, creating assessments and evaluating how this approach helps student to grow as scientists. The focus of this manuscript will be the logistical implications of this transition on campuses that have different cultures, expectations, schedules, and student populations. © 2017 by The International Union of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, 45(5):426-436, 2017. © 2017 The International Union of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology.

The photon-plasmon transitions and diagnostics of the space plasma turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glushkov, Alexander; Glushkov, Alexander; Khetselius, Olga

We present a new approach to treating the space plasma turbulence, based on using to make diagnostic data regarding the photon-plasmon transitions. The theoretical definition of characteristics for these transitions is caried out within consistent theoretical approach, based on the Gell-Mann and Low formalism (energy approach in QED theory).We apply it to calculation of such transitions (Ps) with emission of photon and Langmuir quanta. It is well known that the hfs states of positronium Ps Ps differ in spin S, life time t and mode of annihilation. As a rule, probabilities of the cascade radiation transitions are more than the annihilation probability. The ortho-Ps atom has a metastable state 23s1 and probability of two-photon radiation transition from this state into 13s1 state (1.8•10(-3) 1/s) is significantly less than probability of the three-photon annihilation directly from 23s1level 8.9•10(5) s(-1), i.e. it is usually supposed that the ortho-Ps annihilates from 23s1state. Another situation may take place in plasma, where it is arisen the competition process of destruction of the metastable level - the photonplasmon transition 23s1-13s1with emission of photon and Langmuir quanta. In this paper we carried out the calculation of the probability of the Ps photon-plasmon transition and propose tu use it for diagnostics of the space plasma (dusty one etc.).Standard S-matrix calculation with using an expression for tensor of dielectric permeability of the isotropic space plasma and dispersion relationships for transverse and Langmuir waves [3] allows getting the corresponding probability P(ph-pl). Numerical value of P(ph-pl) is 5.2•10(6)•UL(s-1), where UL is density of the Langmuir waves energy. Our value is correlated with estimate, available in literature [3]: P(phpl)= 6•10(6)•UL (s-1). Comparison of the obtained probability with the life time t(3) allows getting the condition of predominance of the photon-plasmon transition over three

Steady-state distributions of probability fluxes on complex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chełminiak, Przemysław; Kurzyński, Michał

2017-02-01

We consider a simple model of the Markovian stochastic dynamics on complex networks to examine the statistical properties of the probability fluxes. The additional transition, called hereafter a gate, powered by the external constant force breaks a detailed balance in the network. We argue, using a theoretical approach and numerical simulations, that the stationary distributions of the probability fluxes emergent under such conditions converge to the Gaussian distribution. By virtue of the stationary fluctuation theorem, its standard deviation depends directly on the square root of the mean flux. In turn, the nonlinear relation between the mean flux and the external force, which provides the key result of the present study, allows us to calculate the two parameters that entirely characterize the Gaussian distribution of the probability fluxes both close to as well as far from the equilibrium state. Also, the other effects that modify these parameters, such as the addition of shortcuts to the tree-like network, the extension and configuration of the gate and a change in the network size studied by means of computer simulations are widely discussed in terms of the rigorous theoretical predictions.

Evaluation of aircraft crash hazard at Los Alamos National Laboratory facilities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Selvage, R.D.

This report selects a method for use in calculating the frequency of an aircraft crash occurring at selected facilities at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (the Laboratory). The Solomon method was chosen to determine these probabilities. Each variable in the Solomon method is defined and a value for each variable is selected for fourteen facilities at the Laboratory. These values and calculated probabilities are to be used in all safety analysis reports and hazards analyses for the facilities addressed in this report. This report also gives detailed directions to perform aircraft-crash frequency calculations for other facilities. This will ensure thatmore » future aircraft-crash frequency calculations are consistent with calculations in this report.« less

The quark-hadron phase transition and primordial nucleosynthesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hogan, Craig J.

1987-01-01

After presenting the current view of the processes taking place during the cosmological transition from 'quark soup' to normal hadron matter, attention is given to what happens to cosmological nucleosynthesis in the presence of small-scale baryon inhomogeneities. The QCD phase transition is among the plausible sources of this inhomogeneity. It is concluded that the formation of primordial 'quark nuggets' and other cold exotica requires very low entropy regions at the outset, and that even the more modest nonlinearities perturbing nucleosynthesis probably require some ingredient in addition to a quiescent, mildly supercooled transition.

The Visibility of Earth Transits

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Castellano, Timothy P.; Doyle, Laurance; McIntosh, Dawn; DeVincenzi, Donald (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The recent photometric detection of planetary transits of the solar-like star HD 209458 at a distance of 47 parsecs suggest that transits can reveal the presence of Jupiter-size planetary companions in the solar neighborhood. Recent space-based transit searches have achieved photometric precision within an order of magnitude of that required to detect the much smaller transit signal of an earth-size planet across a solar-size star. Laboratory experiments in the presence of realistic noise sources have shown that CCDs can achieve photometric precision adequate to detect the 9.6 E-5 dimming of the Sun due to a transit of the Earth. Space-based solar irradiance monitoring has shown that the intrinsic variability of the Sun would not preclude such a detection. Transits of the Sun by the Earth would be detectable by observers that reside within a narrow band of sky positions near the ecliptic plane, if the observers possess current Earth epoch levels of technology and astronomical expertise. A catalog of solar-like stars that satisfy the geometric condition for Earth transit visibility are presented.

Slowdown of Interhelical Motions Induces a Glass Transition in RNA

PubMed Central

Frank, Aaron T.; Zhang, Qi; Al-Hashimi, Hashim M.; Andricioaei, Ioan

2015-01-01

RNA function depends crucially on the details of its dynamics. The simplest RNA dynamical unit is a two-way interhelical junction. Here, for such a unit—the transactivation response RNA element—we present evidence from molecular dynamics simulations, supported by nuclear magnetic resonance relaxation experiments, for a dynamical transition near 230 K. This glass transition arises from the freezing out of collective interhelical motional modes. The motions, resolved with site-specificity, are dynamically heterogeneous and exhibit non-Arrhenius relaxation. The microscopic origin of the glass transition is a low-dimensional, slow manifold consisting largely of the Euler angles describing interhelical reorientation. Principal component analysis over a range of temperatures covering the glass transition shows that the abrupt slowdown of motion finds its explanation in a localization transition that traps probability density into several disconnected conformational pools over the low-dimensional energy landscape. Upon temperature increase, the probability density pools then flood a larger basin, akin to a lakes-to-sea transition. Simulations on transactivation response RNA are also used to backcalculate inelastic neutron scattering data that match previous inelastic neutron scattering measurements on larger and more complex RNA structures and which, upon normalization, give temperature-dependent fluctuation profiles that overlap onto a glass transition curve that is quasi-universal over a range of systems and techniques. PMID:26083927

Spatial Probability Distribution of Strata's Lithofacies and its Impacts on Land Subsidence in Huairou Emergency Water Resources Region of Beijing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Y.; Gong, H.; Zhu, L.; Guo, L.; Gao, M.; Zhou, C.

2016-12-01

Continuous over-exploitation of groundwater causes dramatic drawdown, and leads to regional land subsidence in the Huairou Emergency Water Resources region, which is located in the up-middle part of the Chaobai river basin of Beijing. Owing to the spatial heterogeneity of strata's lithofacies of the alluvial fan, ground deformation has no significant positive correlation with groundwater drawdown, and one of the challenges ahead is to quantify the spatial distribution of strata's lithofacies. The transition probability geostatistics approach provides potential for characterizing the distribution of heterogeneous lithofacies in the subsurface. Combined the thickness of clay layer extracted from the simulation, with deformation field acquired from PS-InSAR technology, the influence of strata's lithofacies on land subsidence can be analyzed quantitatively. The strata's lithofacies derived from borehole data were generalized into four categories and their probability distribution in the observe space was mined by using the transition probability geostatistics, of which clay was the predominant compressible material. Geologically plausible realizations of lithofacies distribution were produced, accounting for complex heterogeneity in alluvial plain. At a particular probability level of more than 40 percent, the volume of clay defined was 55 percent of the total volume of strata's lithofacies. This level, equaling nearly the volume of compressible clay derived from the geostatistics, was thus chosen to represent the boundary between compressible and uncompressible material. The method incorporates statistical geological information, such as distribution proportions, average lengths and juxtaposition tendencies of geological types, mainly derived from borehole data and expert knowledge, into the Markov chain model of transition probability. Some similarities of patterns were indicated between the spatial distribution of deformation field and clay layer. In the area with

Evaluation of Correlation between Pretest Probability for Clostridium difficile Infection and Clostridium difficile Enzyme Immunoassay Results

PubMed Central

Reske, Kimberly A.; Hink, Tiffany; Dubberke, Erik R.

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT The objective of this study was to evaluate the clinical characteristics and outcomes of hospitalized patients tested for Clostridium difficile and determine the correlation between pretest probability for C. difficile infection (CDI) and assay results. Patients with testing ordered for C. difficile were enrolled and assigned a high, medium, or low pretest probability of CDI based on clinical evaluation, laboratory, and imaging results. Stool was tested for C. difficile by toxin enzyme immunoassay (EIA) and toxigenic culture (TC). Chi-square analyses and the log rank test were utilized. Among the 111 patients enrolled, stool samples from nine were TC positive and four were EIA positive. Sixty-one (55%) patients had clinically significant diarrhea, 19 (17%) patients did not, and clinically significant diarrhea could not be determined for 31 (28%) patients. Seventy-two (65%) patients were assessed as having a low pretest probability of having CDI, 34 (31%) as having a medium probability, and 5 (5%) as having a high probability. None of the patients with low pretest probabilities had a positive EIA, but four were TC positive. None of the seven patients with a positive TC but a negative index EIA developed CDI within 30 days after the index test or died within 90 days after the index toxin EIA date. Pretest probability for CDI should be considered prior to ordering C. difficile testing and must be taken into account when interpreting test results. CDI is a clinical diagnosis supported by laboratory data, and the detection of toxigenic C. difficile in stool does not necessarily confirm the diagnosis of CDI. PMID:27927930

Racial and Ethnic Variation in the Relationship Between Student Loan Debt and the Transition to First Birth.

PubMed

Min, Stella; Taylor, Miles G

2018-02-01

The present study employs discrete-time hazard regression models to investigate the relationship between student loan debt and the probability of transitioning to either marital or nonmarital first childbirth using the 1997 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY97). Accounting for nonrandom selection into student loans using propensity scores, our study reveals that the effect of student loan debt on the transition to motherhood differs among white, black, and Hispanic women. Hispanic women holding student loans experience significant declines in the probability of transitioning to both marital and nonmarital motherhood, whereas black women with student loans are significantly more likely to transition to any first childbirth. Indebted white women experience only a decrease in the probability of a marital first birth. The results from this study suggest that student loans will likely play a key role in shaping future demographic patterns and behaviors.

Control and instanton trajectories for random transitions in turbulent flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouchet, Freddy; Laurie, Jason; Zaboronski, Oleg

2011-12-01

Many turbulent systems exhibit random switches between qualitatively different attractors. The transition between these bistable states is often an extremely rare event, that can not be computed through DNS, due to complexity limitations. We present results for the calculation of instanton trajectories (a control problem) between non-equilibrium stationary states (attractors) in the 2D stochastic Navier-Stokes equations. By representing the transition probability between two states using a path integral formulation, we can compute the most probable trajectory (instanton) joining two non-equilibrium stationary states. Technically, this is equivalent to the minimization of an action, which can be related to a fluid mechanics control problem.

Laboratory Evaluation of Concrete Ties and Fastenings for Transit Use

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1979-03-01

This report was prepared as part of an ongoing research effort by the Urban Mass Transportation Administration (UMTA) to develop standard concrete ties for rapid transit use. The overall objective of this contract was to fabricate and evaluate, by la...

High-pressure phase transitions - Examples of classical predictability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Celebonovic, Vladan

1992-09-01

The applicability of the Savic and Kasanin (1962-1967) classical theory of dense matter to laboratory experiments requiring estimates of high-pressure phase transitions was examined by determining phase transition pressures for a set of 19 chemical substances (including elements, hydrocarbons, metal oxides, and salts) for which experimental data were available. A comparison between experimental and transition points and those predicted by the Savic-Kasanin theory showed that the theory can be used for estimating values of transition pressures. The results also support conclusions obtained in previous astronomical applications of the Savic-Kasanin theory.

Electron impact excitation coefficients for laboratory and astrophysical plasmas

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, J.; Kepple, P. C.; Blaha, M.

1976-01-01

Electron impact excitation rate coefficients have been obtained for a number of transitions in highly ionized ions of interest to astrophysical and laboratory plasmas. The calculations were done using the method of distorted waves. Results are presented for various transitions in highly ionized Ne, Na, Al, Si, A, Ca, Ni and Fe.

The relationship between species detection probability and local extinction probability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alpizar-Jara, R.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Sauer, J.R.; Pollock, K.H.; Rosenberry, C.S.

2004-01-01

In community-level ecological studies, generally not all species present in sampled areas are detected. Many authors have proposed the use of estimation methods that allow detection probabilities that are < 1 and that are heterogeneous among species. These methods can also be used to estimate community-dynamic parameters such as species local extinction probability and turnover rates (Nichols et al. Ecol Appl 8:1213-1225; Conserv Biol 12:1390-1398). Here, we present an ad hoc approach to estimating community-level vital rates in the presence of joint heterogeneity of detection probabilities and vital rates. The method consists of partitioning the number of species into two groups using the detection frequencies and then estimating vital rates (e.g., local extinction probabilities) for each group. Estimators from each group are combined in a weighted estimator of vital rates that accounts for the effect of heterogeneity. Using data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey, we computed such estimates and tested the hypothesis that detection probabilities and local extinction probabilities were negatively related. Our analyses support the hypothesis that species detection probability covaries negatively with local probability of extinction and turnover rates. A simulation study was conducted to assess the performance of vital parameter estimators as well as other estimators relevant to questions about heterogeneity, such as coefficient of variation of detection probabilities and proportion of species in each group. Both the weighted estimator suggested in this paper and the original unweighted estimator for local extinction probability performed fairly well and provided no basis for preferring one to the other.

Evolutionary transitions in parental care and live bearing in vertebrates.

PubMed Central

Reynolds, John D; Goodwin, Nicholas B; Freckleton, Robert P

2002-01-01

We provide the first review of phylogenetic transitions in parental care and live bearing for a wide variety of vertebrates. This includes new analyses of both numbers of transitions and transition probabilities. These reveal numerous transitions by shorebirds and anurans toward uniparental care by either sex. Whereas most or all of the shorebird transitions were from biparental care, nearly all of the anuran transitions have been from no care, reflecting the prevalence of each form of care in basal lineages in each group. Teleost (bony) fishes are similar to anurans in displaying numerous transitions toward uniparental contributions by each sex. Whereas cichlid fishes have often evolved from biparental care to female care, other teleosts have usually switched from no care to male care. Taxa that have evolved exclusive male care without courtship-role reversal are characterized by male territoriality and low costs of care per brood. Males may therefore benefit from care through female preference of parental ability in these species. Primates show a high frequency of transitions from female care to biparental care, reflecting the prevalence of female care in basal lineages. In the numerous taxa that display live bearing by females, including teleosts, elasmobranchs, squamate reptiles and invertebrates, we find that live bearing has always evolved from a lack of care. Although the transition counts and probabilities will undoubtedly be refined as phylogenetic information and methodologies improve, the overall biases in these taxa should help to place adaptive hypotheses for the evolution of care into a stronger setting for understanding directions of change. PMID:11958696

Psychological and Social Risk Factors in Adolescent Smoking Transitions: A Population-Based Longitudinal Study

PubMed Central

Bricker, Jonathan B.; Rajan, K. Bharat; Zalewski, Maureen; Andersen, M. Robyn; Ramey, Madelaine; Peterson, Arthur V.

2009-01-01

Objective This study longitudinally investigated psychological and social risk factors consistent with the Theory of Triadic Influence (TTI) as predictors of adolescent smoking transitions. Design Among 4218 adolescents, five psychological risk factors (i.e., parent-noncompliance, friend-compliance, rebelliousness, low achievement motivation, and thrill seeking) were assessed in 9th grade (age 14), two social influence risk factors (i.e., parents’ and close friends’ smoking) were assessed in grades 3 (age 8) and 9 (age 14), respectively. Main Outcome Measures Adolescent smoking transitions occurring between the 9th and 12th (ages 14–17) grade interval. Results There was a 22–27% probability contributed by scoring high on each of these psychological risk factors to the overall probability that an adolescent would try smoking. For predicting trying smoking, the probability contributed by these psychological factors was greater than the probability contributed by each parent’s and close friend’s smoking. Parent-compliance had a higher contribution to the probability of trying smoking when an adolescent’s parent smoked (p < .05), while friend-compliance had a higher contribution to the probability of trying smoking when an adolescent’s friend smoked (p<.001). Conclusion These psychological and social factors have an important influence on adolescent smoking transitions. Implications for TTI and smoking prevention interventions are discussed. PMID:19594268

[Accreditation of clinical laboratories based on ISO standards].

PubMed

Kawai, Tadashi

2004-11-01

International Organization for Standardization (ISO) have published two international standards (IS) to be used for accreditation of clinical laboratories; ISO/IEC 17025:1999 and ISO 15189:2003. Any laboratory accreditation body must satisfy the requirements stated in ISO/IEC Guide 58. In order to maintain the quality of the laboratory accreditation bodies worldwide, the International Laboratory Accreditation Cooperation (ILAC) has established the mutual recognition arrangement (MRA). In Japan, the International Accreditation Japan (IAJapan) and the Japan Accreditation Board for Conformity Assessment (JAB) are the members of the ILAC/MRA group. In 2003, the Japanese Committee for Clinical Laboratory Standards (JCCLS) and the JAB have established the Development Committee of Clinical Laboratory Accreditation Program (CLAP), in order to establish the CLAP, probably starting in 2005.

Phase stability of transition metals and alloys

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hixson, R.S.; Schiferl, D.; Wills, J.M.

1997-06-01

This is the final report of a three-year, Laboratory-Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). This project was focused on resolving unexplained differences in calculated and measured phase transition pressures in transition metals. Part of the approach was to do new, higher accuracy calculations of transmission pressures for group 4B and group 6B metals. Theory indicates that the transition pressures for these baseline metals should change if alloyed with a d-electron donor metal, and calculations done using the Local Density Approximation (LDA) and the Virtual Crystal Approximation (VCA) indicate that this is true. Alloymore » systems were calculated for Ti, Zr and Hf based alloys with various solute concentrations. The second part of the program was to do new Diamond Anvil Cell (DAC) measurements to experimentally verify calculational results. Alloys were prepared for these systems with grain size suitable for Diamond Anvil Cell experiments. Experiments were done on pure Ti as well as Ti-V and Ti-Ta alloys. Measuring unambiguous transition pressures for these systems proved difficult, but a new technique developed yielded good results.« less

American Higher Education in Transition

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ehrenberg, Ronald G.

2011-01-01

American higher education is in transition and if there ever was a "golden age" for faculty, it probably is behind us. The best historical data on the composition of faculty is collected annually by the American Mathematical Society. Between 1967 and 2009, the share of full-time faculty with PhDs remained constant at about 90 percent at…

PROBABILITY SURVEYS, CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES, AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Asscssment Program EMAP) can be analyzed with a conditional probability analysis (CPA) to conduct quantitative probabi...

PROBABILITY SURVEYS , CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over ...

Brain-wave measures of workload in advanced cockpits: The transition of technology from laboratory to cockpit simulator, phase 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Horst, Richard L.; Mahaffey, David L.; Munson, Robert C.

1989-01-01

The present Phase 2 small business innovation research study was designed to address issues related to scalp-recorded event-related potential (ERP) indices of mental workload and to transition this technology from the laboratory to cockpit simulator environments for use as a systems engineering tool. The project involved five main tasks: (1) Two laboratory studies confirmed the generality of the ERP indices of workload obtained in the Phase 1 study and revealed two additional ERP components related to workload. (2) A task analysis' of flight scenarios and pilot tasks in the Advanced Concepts Flight Simulator (ACFS) defined cockpit events (i.e., displays, messages, alarms) that would be expected to elicit ERPs related to workload. (3) Software was developed to support ERP data analysis. An existing ARD-proprietary package of ERP data analysis routines was upgraded, new graphics routines were developed to enhance interactive data analysis, and routines were developed to compare alternative single-trial analysis techniques using simulated ERP data. (4) Working in conjunction with NASA Langley research scientists and simulator engineers, preparations were made for an ACFS validation study of ERP measures of workload. (5) A design specification was developed for a general purpose, computerized, workload assessment system that can function in simulators such as the ACFS.

Probability Surveys, Conditional Probability, and Ecological Risk Assessment

EPA Science Inventory

We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over ...

Finite-size scaling for discontinuous nonequilibrium phase transitions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Oliveira, Marcelo M.; da Luz, M. G. E.; Fiore, Carlos E.

2018-06-01

A finite-size scaling theory, originally developed only for transitions to absorbing states [Phys. Rev. E 92, 062126 (2015), 10.1103/PhysRevE.92.062126], is extended to distinct sorts of discontinuous nonequilibrium phase transitions. Expressions for quantities such as response functions, reduced cumulants, and equal area probability distributions are derived from phenomenological arguments. Irrespective of system details, all these quantities scale with the volume, establishing the dependence on size. The approach generality is illustrated through the analysis of different models. The present results are a relevant step in trying to unify the scaling behavior description of nonequilibrium transition processes.

Decreased sleep stage transition pattern complexity in narcolepsy type 1.

PubMed

Ferri, Raffaele; Pizza, Fabio; Vandi, Stefano; Iloti, Martina; Plazzi, Giuseppe

2016-08-01

To analyze the complexity of the nocturnal sleep stage sequence in central disorders of hypersomnolence (CDH), with the hypothesis that narcolepsy type 1 (NT1) might exhibit distinctive sleep stage sequence organization and complexity. Seventy-nine NT1 patients, 22 narcolepsy type 2 (NT2), 22 idiopathic hypersomnia (IH), and 52 patients with subjective hypersomnolence (sHS) were recruited and their nocturnal sleep was polysomnographically recorded and scored. Group between-stage transition probability matrices were obtained and compared. Patients with NT1 differed significantly from all the other patient groups, the latter, in turn, were not different between each other. The individual probability of the R-to-N2 transition was found to be the parameter showing the difference of highest significance between the groups (lowest in NT1) and classified patients with or without NT1 with an accuracy of 78.9% (sensitivity 78.5% and specificity 79.2%), by applying a cut-off value of 0.15. The main result of this study is that the structure of the sleep stage transition pattern of hypocretin-deficient NT1 patients is significantly different from that of other forms of CDH and sHS, with normal hypocretin levels. The lower probability of R-to-N2 transition occurrence in NT1 appears to be a reliable polysomnographic feature with potential application at the individual level, for supportive diagnostic purposes. Copyright © 2016 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Brick tunnel randomization and the momentum of the probability mass.

PubMed

Kuznetsova, Olga M

2015-12-30

The allocation space of an unequal-allocation permuted block randomization can be quite wide. The development of unequal-allocation procedures with a narrower allocation space, however, is complicated by the need to preserve the unconditional allocation ratio at every step (the allocation ratio preserving (ARP) property). When the allocation paths are depicted on the K-dimensional unitary grid, where allocation to the l-th treatment is represented by a step along the l-th axis, l = 1 to K, the ARP property can be expressed in terms of the center of the probability mass after i allocations. Specifically, for an ARP allocation procedure that randomizes subjects to K treatment groups in w1 :⋯:wK ratio, w1 +⋯+wK =1, the coordinates of the center of the mass are (w1 i,…,wK i). In this paper, the momentum with respect to the center of the probability mass (expected imbalance in treatment assignments) is used to compare ARP procedures in how closely they approximate the target allocation ratio. It is shown that the two-arm and three-arm brick tunnel randomizations (BTR) are the ARP allocation procedures with the tightest allocation space among all allocation procedures with the same allocation ratio; the two-arm BTR is the minimum-momentum two-arm ARP allocation procedure. Resident probabilities of two-arm and three-arm BTR are analytically derived from the coordinates of the center of the probability mass; the existence of the respective transition probabilities is proven. Probability of deterministic assignments with BTR is found generally acceptable. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Evaluation of Correlation between Pretest Probability for Clostridium difficile Infection and Clostridium difficile Enzyme Immunoassay Results.

PubMed

Kwon, Jennie H; Reske, Kimberly A; Hink, Tiffany; Burnham, C A; Dubberke, Erik R

2017-02-01

The objective of this study was to evaluate the clinical characteristics and outcomes of hospitalized patients tested for Clostridium difficile and determine the correlation between pretest probability for C. difficile infection (CDI) and assay results. Patients with testing ordered for C. difficile were enrolled and assigned a high, medium, or low pretest probability of CDI based on clinical evaluation, laboratory, and imaging results. Stool was tested for C. difficile by toxin enzyme immunoassay (EIA) and toxigenic culture (TC). Chi-square analyses and the log rank test were utilized. Among the 111 patients enrolled, stool samples from nine were TC positive and four were EIA positive. Sixty-one (55%) patients had clinically significant diarrhea, 19 (17%) patients did not, and clinically significant diarrhea could not be determined for 31 (28%) patients. Seventy-two (65%) patients were assessed as having a low pretest probability of having CDI, 34 (31%) as having a medium probability, and 5 (5%) as having a high probability. None of the patients with low pretest probabilities had a positive EIA, but four were TC positive. None of the seven patients with a positive TC but a negative index EIA developed CDI within 30 days after the index test or died within 90 days after the index toxin EIA date. Pretest probability for CDI should be considered prior to ordering C. difficile testing and must be taken into account when interpreting test results. CDI is a clinical diagnosis supported by laboratory data, and the detection of toxigenic C. difficile in stool does not necessarily confirm the diagnosis of CDI. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Microbiology.

Quantum probabilities as Dempster-Shafer probabilities in the lattice of subspaces

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vourdas, A.

2014-08-15

The orthocomplemented modular lattice of subspaces L[H(d)], of a quantum system with d-dimensional Hilbert space H(d), is considered. A generalized additivity relation which holds for Kolmogorov probabilities is violated by quantum probabilities in the full lattice L[H(d)] (it is only valid within the Boolean subalgebras of L[H(d)]). This suggests the use of more general (than Kolmogorov) probability theories, and here the Dempster-Shafer probability theory is adopted. An operator D(H{sub 1},H{sub 2}), which quantifies deviations from Kolmogorov probability theory is introduced, and it is shown to be intimately related to the commutator of the projectors P(H{sub 1}),P(H{sub 2}), to the subspacesmore » H{sub 1}, H{sub 2}. As an application, it is shown that the proof of the inequalities of Clauser, Horne, Shimony, and Holt for a system of two spin 1/2 particles is valid for Kolmogorov probabilities, but it is not valid for Dempster-Shafer probabilities. The violation of these inequalities in experiments supports the interpretation of quantum probabilities as Dempster-Shafer probabilities.« less

Remarks on the Phase Transition in QCD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilczek, Frank

The significance of the question of the order of the phase transition in QCD, and recent evidence that real-world QCD is probably close to having a single second order transition as a function of temperature, is reviewed. Although this circumstance seems to remove the possibility that the QCD transition during the big bang might have had spectacular cosmological consequences, there is some good news: it allows highly non-trivial yet reliable quantitative predictions to be made for the behavior near the transition. These predictions can be tested in numerical simulations and perhaps even eventually in heavy ion collisions. The present paper is a very elementary discussion of the relevant concepts, meant to be an accessible introduction for those innocent of the renormalization group approach to critical phenomena and/or the details of QCD.

Food and Drug Administration: Insufficient Planning for Field Laboratory Consolidation Decisions.

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-12-04

adequately 5 address whether FDA could meet its current and future laboratory needs if the five laboratories were closed or whether cost- effective ...pie transit and laboratory processing times would lessen FDA’S regula- tory effectiveness . Moreover, 61 percent of the excess laboratory capacity...FDA believes that it can ship sam- pies from across the nation to almost any location for analysis without reducing its regulatory effectiveness . (See

The Visibility of Earth Transits

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Castellano, Tim; DeVincenzi, Donald L. (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The recent detection of planetary transits of the solar-like star HD 209458 at a distance of 47 parsecs suggest that transits can reveal the presence of Jupiter-size planetary companions in the solar neighborhood. Recent space-based transit searches have achieved photometric precision within an order of magnitude of that required to detect the much smaller transit signal of an earth-size planet around a solar-size star. Laboratory experiments in the presence of realistic noise sources have shown that CCDs can achieve photometric precision adequate to detect the 9.6 E-5 dimming, of the Sun due to a transit of the Earth. Space-based solar irradiance monitoring has shown that the intrinsic variability of the Sun would not preclude such a detection. Transits of the Sun by the Earth would be detectable by observers that reside within a narrow band of sky positions near the ecliptic plane, if the observers possess current Earth epoch levels of technology and astronomical expertise. A catalog of candidate target stars, their properties, and simulations of the photometric Earth transit signal detectability at each target is presented.

Contingency bias in probability judgement may arise from ambiguity regarding additional causes.

PubMed

Mitchell, Chris J; Griffiths, Oren; More, Pranjal; Lovibond, Peter F

2013-09-01

In laboratory contingency learning tasks, people usually give accurate estimates of the degree of contingency between a cue and an outcome. However, if they are asked to estimate the probability of the outcome in the presence of the cue, they tend to be biased by the probability of the outcome in the absence of the cue. This bias is often attributed to an automatic contingency detection mechanism, which is said to act via an excitatory associative link to activate the outcome representation at the time of testing. We conducted 3 experiments to test alternative accounts of contingency bias. Participants were exposed to the same outcome probability in the presence of the cue, but different outcome probabilities in the absence of the cue. Phrasing the test question in terms of frequency rather than probability and clarifying the test instructions reduced but did not eliminate contingency bias. However, removal of ambiguity regarding the presence of additional causes during the test phase did eliminate contingency bias. We conclude that contingency bias may be due to ambiguity in the test question, and therefore it does not require postulation of a separate associative link-based mechanism.

Changes in EEG activity and hypothalamic temperature as indices for non-REM sleep to REM sleep transitions.

PubMed

Capitani, Paolo; Cerri, Matteo; Amici, Roberto; Baracchi, Francesca; Jones, Christine Ann; Luppi, Marco; Perez, Emanuele; Parmeggiani, Pier Luigi; Zamboni, Giovanni

A shift of physiological regulations from a homeostatic to a non-homeostatic modality characterizes the passage from non-NREM sleep (NREMS) to REM sleep (REMS). In the rat, an EEG index which allows the automatic scoring of transitions from NREMS to REMS has been proposed: the NREMS to REMS transition indicator value, NIV [J.H. Benington et al., Sleep 17 (1994) 28-36]. However, such transitions are not always followed by a REMS episode, but are often followed by an awakening. In the present study, the relationship between changes in EEG activity and hypothalamic temperature (Thy), taken as an index of autonomic activity, was studied within a window consisting of the 60s which precedes a state change from a consolidated NREMS episode. Furthermore, the probability that a transition would lead to REMS or wake was analysed. The results showed that, within this time window, both a modified NIV (NIV(60)) and the difference between Thy at the limits of the window (Thy(D)) were related to the probability of REMS onset. Both the relationship between the indices and the probability of REMS onset was sigmoid, the latter of which saturated at a probability level around 50-60%. The efficacy for the prediction of successful transitions from NREMS to REMS found using Thy(D) as an index supports the view that such a transition is a dynamic process where the physiological risk to enter REMS is weighted at a central level.

The Estimation of Tree Posterior Probabilities Using Conditional Clade Probability Distributions

PubMed Central

Larget, Bret

2013-01-01

In this article I introduce the idea of conditional independence of separated subtrees as a principle by which to estimate the posterior probability of trees using conditional clade probability distributions rather than simple sample relative frequencies. I describe an algorithm for these calculations and software which implements these ideas. I show that these alternative calculations are very similar to simple sample relative frequencies for high probability trees but are substantially more accurate for relatively low probability trees. The method allows the posterior probability of unsampled trees to be calculated when these trees contain only clades that are in other sampled trees. Furthermore, the method can be used to estimate the total probability of the set of sampled trees which provides a measure of the thoroughness of a posterior sample. [Bayesian phylogenetics; conditional clade distributions; improved accuracy; posterior probabilities of trees.] PMID:23479066

Exact calculation of loop formation probability identifies folding motifs in RNA secondary structures.

PubMed

Sloma, Michael F; Mathews, David H

2016-12-01

RNA secondary structure prediction is widely used to analyze RNA sequences. In an RNA partition function calculation, free energy nearest neighbor parameters are used in a dynamic programming algorithm to estimate statistical properties of the secondary structure ensemble. Previously, partition functions have largely been used to estimate the probability that a given pair of nucleotides form a base pair, the conditional stacking probability, the accessibility to binding of a continuous stretch of nucleotides, or a representative sample of RNA structures. Here it is demonstrated that an RNA partition function can also be used to calculate the exact probability of formation of hairpin loops, internal loops, bulge loops, or multibranch loops at a given position. This calculation can also be used to estimate the probability of formation of specific helices. Benchmarking on a set of RNA sequences with known secondary structures indicated that loops that were calculated to be more probable were more likely to be present in the known structure than less probable loops. Furthermore, highly probable loops are more likely to be in the known structure than the set of loops predicted in the lowest free energy structures. © 2016 Sloma and Mathews; Published by Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press for the RNA Society.

SQERTSS: Dynamic rank based throttling of transition probabilities in kinetic Monte Carlo simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Danielson, Thomas; Sutton, Jonathan E.; Hin, Céline; Savara, Aditya

2017-10-01

Lattice based Kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) simulations offer a powerful simulation technique for investigating large reaction networks while retaining spatial configuration information, unlike ordinary differential equations. However, large chemical reaction networks can contain reaction processes with rates spanning multiple orders of magnitude. This can lead to the problem of "KMC stiffness" (similar to stiffness in differential equations), where the computational expense has the potential to be overwhelmed by very short time-steps during KMC simulations, with the simulation spending an inordinate amount of KMC steps/CPU time simulating fast frivolous processes (FFPs) without progressing the system (reaction network). In order to achieve simulation times that are experimentally relevant or desired for predictions, a dynamic throttling algorithm involving separation of the processes into speed-ranks based on event frequencies has been designed and implemented with the intent of decreasing the probability of FFP events, and increasing the probability of slow process events-allowing rate limiting events to become more likely to be observed in KMC simulations. This Staggered Quasi-Equilibrium Rank-based Throttling for Steady-state (SQERTSS) algorithm is designed for use in achieving and simulating steady-state conditions in KMC simulations. As shown in this work, the SQERTSS algorithm also works for transient conditions: the correct configuration space and final state will still be achieved if the required assumptions are not violated, with the caveat that the sizes of the time-steps may be distorted during the transient period.

SQERTSS: Dynamic rank based throttling of transition probabilities in kinetic Monte Carlo simulations

DOE PAGES

Danielson, Thomas; Sutton, Jonathan E.; Hin, Céline; ...

2017-06-09

Lattice based Kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) simulations offer a powerful simulation technique for investigating large reaction networks while retaining spatial configuration information, unlike ordinary differential equations. However, large chemical reaction networks can contain reaction processes with rates spanning multiple orders of magnitude. This can lead to the problem of “KMC stiffness” (similar to stiffness in differential equations), where the computational expense has the potential to be overwhelmed by very short time-steps during KMC simulations, with the simulation spending an inordinate amount of KMC steps / cpu-time simulating fast frivolous processes (FFPs) without progressing the system (reaction network). In order tomore » achieve simulation times that are experimentally relevant or desired for predictions, a dynamic throttling algorithm involving separation of the processes into speed-ranks based on event frequencies has been designed and implemented with the intent of decreasing the probability of FFP events, and increasing the probability of slow process events -- allowing rate limiting events to become more likely to be observed in KMC simulations. This Staggered Quasi-Equilibrium Rank-based Throttling for Steady-state (SQERTSS) algorithm designed for use in achieving and simulating steady-state conditions in KMC simulations. Lastly, as shown in this work, the SQERTSS algorithm also works for transient conditions: the correct configuration space and final state will still be achieved if the required assumptions are not violated, with the caveat that the sizes of the time-steps may be distorted during the transient period.« less

Probability 1/e

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Koo, Reginald; Jones, Martin L.

2011-01-01

Quite a number of interesting problems in probability feature an event with probability equal to 1/e. This article discusses three such problems and attempts to explain why this probability occurs with such frequency.

The Association of Trip Distance With Walking To Reach Public Transit: Data from the California Household Travel Survey.

PubMed

Durand, Casey P; Tang, Xiaohui; Gabriel, Kelley P; Sener, Ipek N; Oluyomi, Abiodun O; Knell, Gregory; Porter, Anna K; Oelscher, Deanna M; Kohl, Harold W

2016-06-01

Use of public transit is cited as a way to help individuals incorporate regular physical activity into their day. As a novel research topic, however, there is much we do not know. The aim of this analysis was to identify the correlation between distance to a transit stop and the probability it will be accessed by walking. We also sought to understand if this relation was moderated by trip, personal or household factors. Data from the 2012 California Household Travel Survey was used for this cross-sectional analysis. 2,573 individuals were included, representing 6,949 transit trips. Generalized estimating equations modeled the probability of actively accessing public transit as a function of distance from origin to transit stop, and multiple trip, personal and household variables. Analyses were conducted in 2014 and 2015. For each mile increase in distance from the point of origin to the transit stop, the probability of active access decreased by 12%. With other factors held equal, at two miles from a transit stop there is a 50% chance someone will walk to a stop versus non-active means. The distance-walking relation was modified by month the trips were taken. Individuals appear to be willing to walk further to reach transit than existing guidelines indicate. This implies that for any given transit stop, the zone of potential riders who will walk to reach transit is relatively large. Future research should clarify who transit-related walkers are, and why some are more willing to walk longer distances to transit than others.

The Association of Trip Distance With Walking To Reach Public Transit: Data from the California Household Travel Survey

PubMed Central

Durand, Casey P.; Tang, Xiaohui; Gabriel, Kelley P.; Sener, Ipek N.; Oluyomi, Abiodun O.; Knell, Gregory; Porter, Anna K.; oelscher, Deanna M.; Kohl, Harold W.

2015-01-01

Introduction Use of public transit is cited as a way to help individuals incorporate regular physical activity into their day. As a novel research topic, however, there is much we do not know. The aim of this analysis was to identify the correlation between distance to a transit stop and the probability it will be accessed by walking. We also sought to understand if this relation was moderated by trip, personal or household factors. Methods Data from the 2012 California Household Travel Survey was used for this cross-sectional analysis. 2,573 individuals were included, representing 6,949 transit trips. Generalized estimating equations modeled the probability of actively accessing public transit as a function of distance from origin to transit stop, and multiple trip, personal and household variables. Analyses were conducted in 2014 and 2015. Results For each mile increase in distance from the point of origin to the transit stop, the probability of active access decreased by 12%. With other factors held equal, at two miles from a transit stop there is a 50% chance someone will walk to a stop versus non-active means. The distance-walking relation was modified by month the trips were taken. Conclusions Individuals appear to be willing to walk further to reach transit than existing guidelines indicate. This implies that for any given transit stop, the zone of potential riders who will walk to reach transit is relatively large. Future research should clarify who transit-related walkers are, and why some are more willing to walk longer distances to transit than others. PMID:27429905

DNA binding sites characterization by means of Rényi entropy measures on nucleotide transitions.

PubMed

Perera, Alexandre; Vallverdu, Montserrat; Claria, Francesc; Soria, José Manuel; Caminal, Pere

2006-01-01

In this work, parametric information-theory measures for the characterization of binding sites in DNA are extended with the use of transitional probabilities on the sequence. We propose the use of parametric uncertainty measure such as Renyi entropies obtained from the transition probabilities for the study of the binding sites, in addition to nucleotide frequency based Renyi measures. Results are reported in this manuscript comparing transition frequencies (i.e. dinucelotides) and base frequencies for Shannon and parametric Renyi for a number of binding sites found in E. Coli, lambda and T7 organisms. We observe that, for the evaluated datasets, the information provided by both approaches is not redundant, as they evolve differently under increasing Renyi orders.

Charged particle spectra measured during the transit to Mars with the Mars Science Laboratory Radiation Assessment Detector (MSL/RAD).

PubMed

Ehresmann, Bent; Hassler, Donald M; Zeitlin, Cary; Guo, Jingnan; Köhler, Jan; Wimmer-Schweingruber, Robert F; Appel, Jan K; Brinza, David E; Rafkin, Scot C R; Böttcher, Stephan I; Burmeister, Sönke; Lohf, Henning; Martin, Cesar; Böhm, Eckart; Matthiä, Daniel; Reitz, Günther

2016-08-01

The Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) started its 253-day cruise to Mars on November 26, 2011. During cruise the Radiation Assessment Detector (RAD), situated on board the Curiosity rover, conducted measurements of the energetic-particle radiation environment inside the spacecraft. This environment consists mainly of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs), as well as secondary particles created by interactions of these GCRs with the spacecraft. The RAD measurements can serve as a proxy for the radiation environment a human crew would encounter during a transit to Mars, for a given part of the solar cycle, assuming that a crewed vehicle would have comparable shielding. The measurements of radiological quantities made by RAD are important in themselves, and, the same data set allow for detailed analysis of GCR-induced particle spectra inside the spacecraft. This provides important inputs for the evaluation of current transport models used to model the free-space (and spacecraft) radiation environment for different spacecraft shielding and different times in the solar cycle. Changes in these conditions can lead to significantly different radiation fields and, thus, potential health risks, emphasizing the need for validated transport codes. Here, we present the first measurements of charged particle fluxes inside a spacecraft during the transit from Earth to Mars. Using data obtained during the last two month of the cruise to Mars (June 11-July 14, 2012), we have derived detailed energy spectra for low-Z particles stopping in the instrument's detectors, as well as integral fluxes for penetrating particles with higher energies. Furthermore, we analyze the temporal changes in measured proton fluxes during quiet solar periods (i.e., when no solar energetic particle events occurred) over the duration of the transit (December 9, 2011-July 14, 2012) and correlate them with changing heliospheric conditions. Copyright © 2016 The Committee on Space Research (COSPAR). All rights reserved.

Charged particle spectra measured during the transit to Mars with the Mars Science Laboratory Radiation Assessment Detector (MSL/RAD)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ehresmann, Bent; Hassler, Donald M.; Zeitlin, Cary; Guo, Jingnan; Köhler, Jan; Wimmer-Schweingruber, Robert F.; Appel, Jan K.; Brinza, David E.; Rafkin, Scot C. R.; Böttcher, Stephan I.; Burmeister, Sönke; Lohf, Henning; Martin, Cesar; Böhm, Eckart; Matthiä, Daniel; Reitz, Günther

2016-08-01

The Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) started its 253-day cruise to Mars on November 26, 2011. During cruise the Radiation Assessment Detector (RAD), situated on board the Curiosity rover, conducted measurements of the energetic-particle radiation environment inside the spacecraft. This environment consists mainly of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs), as well as secondary particles created by interactions of these GCRs with the spacecraft. The RAD measurements can serve as a proxy for the radiation environment a human crew would encounter during a transit to Mars, for a given part of the solar cycle, assuming that a crewed vehicle would have comparable shielding. The measurements of radiological quantities made by RAD are important in themselves, and, the same data set allow for detailed analysis of GCR-induced particle spectra inside the spacecraft. This provides important inputs for the evaluation of current transport models used to model the free-space (and spacecraft) radiation environment for different spacecraft shielding and different times in the solar cycle. Changes in these conditions can lead to significantly different radiation fields and, thus, potential health risks, emphasizing the need for validated transport codes. Here, we present the first measurements of charged particle fluxes inside a spacecraft during the transit from Earth to Mars. Using data obtained during the last two month of the cruise to Mars (June 11-July 14, 2012), we have derived detailed energy spectra for low-Z particles stopping in the instrument's detectors, as well as integral fluxes for penetrating particles with higher energies. Furthermore, we analyze the temporal changes in measured proton fluxes during quiet solar periods (i.e., when no solar energetic particle events occurred) over the duration of the transit (December 9, 2011-July 14, 2012) and correlate them with changing heliospheric conditions.

Probability machines: consistent probability estimation using nonparametric learning machines.

PubMed

Malley, J D; Kruppa, J; Dasgupta, A; Malley, K G; Ziegler, A

2012-01-01

Most machine learning approaches only provide a classification for binary responses. However, probabilities are required for risk estimation using individual patient characteristics. It has been shown recently that every statistical learning machine known to be consistent for a nonparametric regression problem is a probability machine that is provably consistent for this estimation problem. The aim of this paper is to show how random forests and nearest neighbors can be used for consistent estimation of individual probabilities. Two random forest algorithms and two nearest neighbor algorithms are described in detail for estimation of individual probabilities. We discuss the consistency of random forests, nearest neighbors and other learning machines in detail. We conduct a simulation study to illustrate the validity of the methods. We exemplify the algorithms by analyzing two well-known data sets on the diagnosis of appendicitis and the diagnosis of diabetes in Pima Indians. Simulations demonstrate the validity of the method. With the real data application, we show the accuracy and practicality of this approach. We provide sample code from R packages in which the probability estimation is already available. This means that all calculations can be performed using existing software. Random forest algorithms as well as nearest neighbor approaches are valid machine learning methods for estimating individual probabilities for binary responses. Freely available implementations are available in R and may be used for applications.

DNA binding site characterization by means of Rényi entropy measures on nucleotide transitions.

PubMed

Perera, A; Vallverdu, M; Claria, F; Soria, J M; Caminal, P

2008-06-01

In this work, parametric information-theory measures for the characterization of binding sites in DNA are extended with the use of transitional probabilities on the sequence. We propose the use of parametric uncertainty measures such as Rényi entropies obtained from the transition probabilities for the study of the binding sites, in addition to nucleotide frequency-based Rényi measures. Results are reported in this work comparing transition frequencies (i.e., dinucleotides) and base frequencies for Shannon and parametric Rényi entropies for a number of binding sites found in E. Coli, lambda and T7 organisms. We observe that the information provided by both approaches is not redundant. Furthermore, under the presence of noise in the binding site matrix we observe overall improved robustness of nucleotide transition-based algorithms when compared with nucleotide frequency-based method.

The estimation of tree posterior probabilities using conditional clade probability distributions.

PubMed

Larget, Bret

2013-07-01

In this article I introduce the idea of conditional independence of separated subtrees as a principle by which to estimate the posterior probability of trees using conditional clade probability distributions rather than simple sample relative frequencies. I describe an algorithm for these calculations and software which implements these ideas. I show that these alternative calculations are very similar to simple sample relative frequencies for high probability trees but are substantially more accurate for relatively low probability trees. The method allows the posterior probability of unsampled trees to be calculated when these trees contain only clades that are in other sampled trees. Furthermore, the method can be used to estimate the total probability of the set of sampled trees which provides a measure of the thoroughness of a posterior sample.

Anomalous structural transition of confined hard squares.

PubMed

Gurin, Péter; Varga, Szabolcs; Odriozola, Gerardo

2016-11-01

Structural transitions are examined in quasi-one-dimensional systems of freely rotating hard squares, which are confined between two parallel walls. We find two competing phases: one is a fluid where the squares have two sides parallel to the walls, while the second one is a solidlike structure with a zigzag arrangement of the squares. Using transfer matrix method we show that the configuration space consists of subspaces of fluidlike and solidlike phases, which are connected with low probability microstates of mixed structures. The existence of these connecting states makes the thermodynamic quantities continuous and precludes the possibility of a true phase transition. However, thermodynamic functions indicate strong tendency for the phase transition and our replica exchange Monte Carlo simulation study detects several important markers of the first order phase transition. The distinction of a phase transition from a structural change is practically impossible with simulations and experiments in such systems like the confined hard squares.

An experimental study of the surface elevation probability distribution and statistics of wind-generated waves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huang, N. E.; Long, S. R.

1980-01-01

Laboratory experiments were performed to measure the surface elevation probability density function and associated statistical properties for a wind-generated wave field. The laboratory data along with some limited field data were compared. The statistical properties of the surface elevation were processed for comparison with the results derived from the Longuet-Higgins (1963) theory. It is found that, even for the highly non-Gaussian cases, the distribution function proposed by Longuet-Higgins still gives good approximations.

SYSTEMATISCHER AUSSPRACHEUNTERRICHT IM SPRACHLABORATORIUM (SYSTEMATIC PRONUNCIATION INSTRUCTION IN THE LANGUAGE LABORATORY).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

BOEDDINGHAUS, WALTER

THE APPARENT DISAPPOINTMENT AND SLACKENING OF ENTHUSIASTIC INTEREST IN LANGUAGE LABORATORY INSTRUCTION IS MOST PROBABLY NOT DUE TO A FUNDAMENTAL LACK OF EFFECTIVENESS, BUT TO METHODOLOGICAL AND ORGANIZATIONAL PROBLEMS YET TO BE SOLVED. MOST IMPORTANT, THE RESTRICTIVE DEPENDENCE OF LABORATORY MATERIAL ON CLASSROOM LESSONS MUST BE ABANDONED. ONLY…

Genetic Algorithms and Nucleation in VIH-AIDS transition.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barranon, Armando

2003-03-01

VIH to AIDS transition has been modeled via a genetic algorithm that uses boom-boom principle and where population evolution is simulated with a cellular automaton based on SIR model. VIH to AIDS transition is signed by nucleation of infected cells and low probability of infection are obtained for different mutation rates in agreement with clinical results. A power law is obtained with a critical exponent close to the critical exponent of cubic, spherical percolation, colossal magnetic resonance, Ising Model and liquid-gas phase transition in heavy ion collisions. Computations were carried out at UAM-A Supercomputing Lab and author acknowledges financial support from Division of CBI at UAM-A.

Phase transitions in community detection: A solvable toy model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ver Steeg, Greg; Moore, Cristopher; Galstyan, Aram; Allahverdyan, Armen

2014-05-01

Recently, it was shown that there is a phase transition in the community detection problem. This transition was first computed using the cavity method, and has been proved rigorously in the case of q = 2 groups. However, analytic calculations using the cavity method are challenging since they require us to understand probability distributions of messages. We study analogous transitions in the so-called “zero-temperature inference” model, where this distribution is supported only on the most likely messages. Furthermore, whenever several messages are equally likely, we break the tie by choosing among them with equal probability, corresponding to an infinitesimal random external field. While the resulting analysis overestimates the thresholds, it reproduces some of the qualitative features of the system. It predicts a first-order detectability transition whenever q > 2 (as opposed to q > 4 according to the finite-temperature cavity method). It also has a regime analogous to the “hard but detectable” phase, where the community structure can be recovered, but only when the initial messages are sufficiently accurate. Finally, we study a semisupervised setting where we are given the correct labels for a fraction ρ of the nodes. For q > 2, we find a regime where the accuracy jumps discontinuously at a critical value of ρ.

Jamming transitions induced by an attraction in pedestrian flow.

PubMed

Kwak, Jaeyoung; Jo, Hang-Hyun; Luttinen, Tapio; Kosonen, Iisakki

2017-08-01

We numerically study jamming transitions in pedestrian flow interacting with an attraction, mostly based on the social force model for pedestrians who can join the attraction. We formulate the joining probability as a function of social influence from others, reflecting that individual choice behavior is likely influenced by others. By controlling pedestrian influx and the social influence parameter, we identify various pedestrian flow patterns. For the bidirectional flow scenario, we observe a transition from the free flow phase to the freezing phase, in which oppositely walking pedestrians reach a complete stop and block each other. On the other hand, a different transition behavior appears in the unidirectional flow scenario, i.e., from the free flow phase to the localized jam phase and then to the extended jam phase. It is also observed that the extended jam phase can end up in freezing phenomena with a certain probability when pedestrian flux is high with strong social influence. This study highlights that attractive interactions between pedestrians and an attraction can trigger jamming transitions by increasing the number of conflicts among pedestrians near the attraction. In order to avoid excessive pedestrian jams, we suggest suppressing the number of conflicts under a certain level by moderating pedestrian influx especially when the social influence is strong.

Jamming transitions induced by an attraction in pedestrian flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwak, Jaeyoung; Jo, Hang-Hyun; Luttinen, Tapio; Kosonen, Iisakki

2017-08-01

We numerically study jamming transitions in pedestrian flow interacting with an attraction, mostly based on the social force model for pedestrians who can join the attraction. We formulate the joining probability as a function of social influence from others, reflecting that individual choice behavior is likely influenced by others. By controlling pedestrian influx and the social influence parameter, we identify various pedestrian flow patterns. For the bidirectional flow scenario, we observe a transition from the free flow phase to the freezing phase, in which oppositely walking pedestrians reach a complete stop and block each other. On the other hand, a different transition behavior appears in the unidirectional flow scenario, i.e., from the free flow phase to the localized jam phase and then to the extended jam phase. It is also observed that the extended jam phase can end up in freezing phenomena with a certain probability when pedestrian flux is high with strong social influence. This study highlights that attractive interactions between pedestrians and an attraction can trigger jamming transitions by increasing the number of conflicts among pedestrians near the attraction. In order to avoid excessive pedestrian jams, we suggest suppressing the number of conflicts under a certain level by moderating pedestrian influx especially when the social influence is strong.

NASA Laboratory Astrophysics Workshop 2006 Introductory Remarks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hasan, Hashima

2006-01-01

NASA Laboratory Astrophysics Workshop 2006, is the fourth in a series of workshops held at four year intervals, to assess the laboratory needs of NASA's astrophysics missions - past, current and future. Investigators who need laboratory data to interpret their observations from space missions, theorists and modelers, experimentalists who produce the data, and scientists who compile databases have an opportunity to exchange ideas and understand each other's needs and limitations. The multi-wavelength character of these workshops allows cross-fertilization of ideas, raises awareness in the scientific community of the rapid advances in other fields, and the challenges it faces in prioritizing its laboratory needs in a tight budget environment. Currently, we are in the golden age of Space Astronomy, with three of NASA s Great Observatories, Hubble Space Telescope (HST), Chandra X-Ray Observatory (CXO), and Spitzer Space Telescope (SST), in operation and providing astronomers and opportunity to perform synergistic observations. In addition, the Far Ultraviolet Spectroscopic Explorer (FUSE), XMM-Newton, HETE-2, Galaxy Evolution Explorer (GALEX), INTEGRAL and Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP), are operating in an extended phase, while Swift and Suzaku are in their prime phase of operations. The wealth of data from these missions is stretching the Laboratory Astrophysics program to its limits. Missions in the future, which also need such data include the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), Space Interferometry Mission (SIM), Constellation-X (Con-X), Herschel, and Planck. The interpretation of spectroscopic data from these missions requires knowledge of atomic and molecular parameters such as transition probabilities, f-values, oscillator strengths, excitation cross sections, collision strengths, which have either to be measured in the laboratory by simulating space plasma and interactions therein, or by theoretical calculations and modeling. Once the laboratory

CellTrans: An R Package to Quantify Stochastic Cell State Transitions.

PubMed

Buder, Thomas; Deutsch, Andreas; Seifert, Michael; Voss-Böhme, Anja

2017-01-01

Many normal and cancerous cell lines exhibit a stable composition of cells in distinct states which can, e.g., be defined on the basis of cell surface markers. There is evidence that such an equilibrium is associated with stochastic transitions between distinct states. Quantifying these transitions has the potential to better understand cell lineage compositions. We introduce CellTrans, an R package to quantify stochastic cell state transitions from cell state proportion data from fluorescence-activated cell sorting and flow cytometry experiments. The R package is based on a mathematical model in which cell state alterations occur due to stochastic transitions between distinct cell states whose rates only depend on the current state of a cell. CellTrans is an automated tool for estimating the underlying transition probabilities from appropriately prepared data. We point out potential analytical challenges in the quantification of these cell transitions and explain how CellTrans handles them. The applicability of CellTrans is demonstrated on publicly available data on the evolution of cell state compositions in cancer cell lines. We show that CellTrans can be used to (1) infer the transition probabilities between different cell states, (2) predict cell line compositions at a certain time, (3) predict equilibrium cell state compositions, and (4) estimate the time needed to reach this equilibrium. We provide an implementation of CellTrans in R, freely available via GitHub (https://github.com/tbuder/CellTrans).

Probable transfusion-transmitted Zika virus in Brazil.

PubMed

Barjas-Castro, Maria L; Angerami, Rodrigo N; Cunha, Mariana S; Suzuki, Akemi; Nogueira, Juliana S; Rocco, Iray M; Maeda, Adriana Y; Vasami, Fernanda G S; Katz, Gizelda; Boin, Ilka F S F; Stucchi, Raquel S B; Resende, Mariângela R; Esposito, Danillo L A; de Souza, Renato P; da Fonseca, Benedito A; Addas-Carvalho, Marcelo

2016-07-01

Zika virus (ZIKV) is an emerging arthropod-borne flavivirus transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes. Recent commentaries regarding ZIKV routes of transmission describe a potential transmission by transfusion. Herein, we report a probable case of transfusion-transmitted ZIKV infection through a platelet transfusion that was detected from postdonation information. A blood donor made a voluntary telephone report to the blood donor facility 3 days after donation and informed the facility of a febrile illness (fever, malaise, and headaches). Due to the ongoing dengue epidemic, the initial clinical investigation included dengue among other possible diagnoses. The serology and molecular laboratory results excluded dengue infection. However, stored samples from the donation were positive for ZIKV on reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) analysis. A retrospective investigation demonstrated that the platelet concentrate, which was part of a pool, had been transfused after a liver transplantation. A physician had evaluated the patient 4 days after surgery. Laboratory investigation showed enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay results that were negative for dengue immunoglobulin M antibodies; however, the results were positive for hemagglutination inhibition antibodies against flavivirus. ZIKV RT-PCR and virus isolation analyses in cell cultures from recipient serum were both positive. The sequencing confirmed ZIKV in the donor and patient samples. Ten partial nucleotide sequences from the ZIKV strain that were detected in the donor were aligned and compared with the ZIKV genome detected in the recipient, revealing a 99.8% homology between the two strains. This is a case of probable transmission of ZIKV through blood transfusion. The patient had been transfused with the blood product from an infected donor, most likely in the incubation period after ZIKV infection but prior to clinical disease onset. This report emphasizes the importance of postdonation information and

Laboratory Astrophysics in Support of the Study of Nucleosynthesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

den Hartog, Betsy

2017-04-01

One of the outstanding questions in our understanding of the Universe is how the elements were made. Only a few of the lightest or primordial nuclei were made just after the Big Bang. Other light nuclei up to the iron (Fe)-group are made by fusion reactions in the interior of stars. Heavier nuclei are made primarily via neutron-capture events which are categorized as either slow or rapid, the s-process or r-process, respectively. Although s-process neutron-capture is fairly well understood, the r-process, which occurs in neutron dense (explosive) environments, remains more elusive. In recent years, progress has been made in the understanding of r-process nucleosynthesis through the study of elemental abundances in metal-poor stars. These stars, which are among the oldest objects in our Galaxy, contain a fossil record of the elemental mix of the surrounding interstellar medium when they formed. The improvement of both the accuracy and precision of elemental abundances in metal-poor stars has required a long-term effort to improve the necessary laboratory data - first for the rare earth elements and more recently for the Fe-group. In this talk I will describe our laboratory effort measuring atomic transition probabilities, which are determined from a combination of radiative lifetimes and emission branching fractions. I will then show some examples of the application of our laboratory data to the determination of metal-poor star elemental abundances and discuss insights that can be gleaned from these improved data. Work in collaboration with (and supported by) Jim Lawler (NSF Grant AST-1516182, NASA Grant NNX16AE96G), Chris Sneden (NSF Grant AST-1211585) and John Cowan (NSF Grant PHY-1430152 (JINA Center for the Evolution of the Elements)), among others.

Electric dipole transitions for four-times ionized cerium (Ce V)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Usta, Betül Karaçoban, E-mail: bkaracoban@sakarya.edu.tr; Akgün, Elif, E-mail: elif.akgun@ogr.sakarya.edu.tr; Alparslan, Büşra, E-mail: busra.alparslan1@ogr.sakarya.edu.tr

2016-03-25

We have calculated the transition parameters, such as wavelengths, oscillator strengths, and transition probabilities (or rates), for the electric dipole (E1) transitions in four-times ionized cerium (Ce V, Z = 58) by using the multiconfiguration Hartree-Fock method within the framework of Breit-Pauli (MCHF+BP) relativistic corrections and the relativistic Hartree-Fock (HFR) method. The obtained results have been compared with other works available in literature. A discussion of these calculations for Ce V in this study has also been in view of the MCHF+BP and HFR methods.

Probability of Detection (POD) as a statistical model for the validation of qualitative methods.

PubMed

Wehling, Paul; LaBudde, Robert A; Brunelle, Sharon L; Nelson, Maria T

2011-01-01

A statistical model is presented for use in validation of qualitative methods. This model, termed Probability of Detection (POD), harmonizes the statistical concepts and parameters between quantitative and qualitative method validation. POD characterizes method response with respect to concentration as a continuous variable. The POD model provides a tool for graphical representation of response curves for qualitative methods. In addition, the model allows comparisons between candidate and reference methods, and provides calculations of repeatability, reproducibility, and laboratory effects from collaborative study data. Single laboratory study and collaborative study examples are given.

Transitions in a genetic transcriptional regulatory system under Lévy motion

PubMed Central

Zheng, Yayun; Serdukova, Larissa; Duan, Jinqiao; Kurths, Jürgen

2016-01-01

Based on a stochastic differential equation model for a single genetic regulatory system, we examine the dynamical effects of noisy fluctuations, arising in the synthesis reaction, on the evolution of the transcription factor activator in terms of its concentration. The fluctuations are modeled by Brownian motion and α-stable Lévy motion. Two deterministic quantities, the mean first exit time (MFET) and the first escape probability (FEP), are used to analyse the transitions from the low to high concentration states. A shorter MFET or higher FEP in the low concentration region facilitates such a transition. We have observed that higher noise intensities and larger jumps of the Lévy motion shortens the MFET and thus benefits transitions. The Lévy motion activates a transition from the low concentration region to the non-adjacent high concentration region, while Brownian motion can not induce this phenomenon. There are optimal proportions of Gaussian and non-Gaussian noises, which maximise the quantities MFET and FEP for each concentration, when the total sum of noise intensities are kept constant. Because a weaker stability indicates a higher transition probability, a new geometric concept is introduced to quantify the basin stability of the low concentration region, characterised by the escaping behaviour. PMID:27411445

Beta-decay rate and beta-delayed neutron emission probability of improved gross theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koura, Hiroyuki

2014-09-01

A theoretical study has been carried out on beta-decay rate and beta-delayed neutron emission probability. The gross theory of the beta decay is based on an idea of the sum rule of the beta-decay strength function, and has succeeded in describing beta-decay half-lives of nuclei overall nuclear mass region. The gross theory includes not only the allowed transition as the Fermi and the Gamow-Teller, but also the first-forbidden transition. In this work, some improvements are introduced as the nuclear shell correction on nuclear level densities and the nuclear deformation for nuclear strength functions, those effects were not included in the original gross theory. The shell energy and the nuclear deformation for unmeasured nuclei are adopted from the KTUY nuclear mass formula, which is based on the spherical-basis method. Considering the properties of the integrated Fermi function, we can roughly categorized energy region of excited-state of a daughter nucleus into three regions: a highly-excited energy region, which fully affect a delayed neutron probability, a middle energy region, which is estimated to contribute the decay heat, and a region neighboring the ground-state, which determines the beta-decay rate. Some results will be given in the presentation. A theoretical study has been carried out on beta-decay rate and beta-delayed neutron emission probability. The gross theory of the beta decay is based on an idea of the sum rule of the beta-decay strength function, and has succeeded in describing beta-decay half-lives of nuclei overall nuclear mass region. The gross theory includes not only the allowed transition as the Fermi and the Gamow-Teller, but also the first-forbidden transition. In this work, some improvements are introduced as the nuclear shell correction on nuclear level densities and the nuclear deformation for nuclear strength functions, those effects were not included in the original gross theory. The shell energy and the nuclear deformation for

Transition and duration in disability: New evidence from administrative data.

PubMed

Lopez Casasnovas, Guillem; Nicodemo, Catia

2016-01-01

In recent decades demographic changes (low fertility rates, increased life expectancy…) in most OECD countries, have brought profound changes in the population pyramid, with several effects in the welfare of society. One of them is the increase in the number of people with disabilities, since age is a determining factor in the emergence of this dependency. This paper studies the probability to enter and transit in and from a disability state, as well as its associated mortality, by attending to the distinction between the initial disability level and the process that leads on from it, and by addressing whether and how education, age and income affect this transition. Applying a Markov model and a survival analysis to new Spanish administrative data set (Muestra Continua de Vida Laboral (MCVL)) we estimate the probability that a person changes the state of disability and the duration of her progression in each case. We find that people with an initial state of disability have a higher propensity to change status and take less time to transit amongst different stages than those who have no disability. Men do so more frequently than women and income have negative effects on the transition. These results may help to incorporate into welfare programs some protection mechanisms for delaying transitions and target the most fragile population groups. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Probability distributions for Markov chain based quantum walks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balu, Radhakrishnan; Liu, Chaobin; Venegas-Andraca, Salvador E.

2018-01-01

We analyze the probability distributions of the quantum walks induced from Markov chains by Szegedy (2004). The first part of this paper is devoted to the quantum walks induced from finite state Markov chains. It is shown that the probability distribution on the states of the underlying Markov chain is always convergent in the Cesaro sense. In particular, we deduce that the limiting distribution is uniform if the transition matrix is symmetric. In the case of a non-symmetric Markov chain, we exemplify that the limiting distribution of the quantum walk is not necessarily identical with the stationary distribution of the underlying irreducible Markov chain. The Szegedy scheme can be extended to infinite state Markov chains (random walks). In the second part, we formulate the quantum walk induced from a lazy random walk on the line. We then obtain the weak limit of the quantum walk. It is noted that the current quantum walk appears to spread faster than its counterpart-quantum walk on the line driven by the Grover coin discussed in literature. The paper closes with an outlook on possible future directions.

Quantum mechanical reaction probability of triplet ketene at the multireference second-order perturbation level of theory.

PubMed

Ogihara, Yusuke; Yamamoto, Takeshi; Kato, Shigeki

2010-09-23

Triplet ketene exhibits a steplike structure in the experimentally observed dissociation rates, but its mechanism is still unknown despite many theoretical efforts in the past decades. In this paper we revisit this problem by quantum mechanically calculating the reaction probability with multireference-based electronic structure theory. Specifically, we first construct an analytical potential energy surface of triplet state by fitting it to about 6000 ab initio energies computed at the multireference second-order Mller-Plesset perturbation (MRMP2) level. We then evaluate the cumulative reaction probability by using the transition state wave packet method together with an adiabatically constrained Hamiltonian. The result shows that the imaginary barrier frequency on the triplet surface is 328i cm-1, which is close to the CCSD(T) result (321i cm-1) but is likely too large for reproducing the experimentally observed steps. Indeed, our calculated reaction probability exhibits no signature of steps, reflecting too strong tunneling effect along the reaction coordinate. Nevertheless, it is emphasized that the flatness of the potential profile in the transition-state region (which governs the degree of tunneling) depends strongly on the level of electronic structure calculation, thus leaving some possibility that the use of more accurate theories might lead to the observed steps. We also demonstrate that the triplet potential surface differs significantly between the CASSCF and MRMP2 results, particularly in the transition-state region. This fact seems to require more attention when studying the "nonadiabatic" scenario for the steps, in which the crossing seam between S0 and T1 surfaces is assumed to play a central role.

Clinical judgment to estimate pretest probability in the diagnosis of Cushing's syndrome under a Bayesian perspective.

PubMed

Cipoli, Daniel E; Martinez, Edson Z; Castro, Margaret de; Moreira, Ayrton C

2012-12-01

To estimate the pretest probability of Cushing's syndrome (CS) diagnosis by a Bayesian approach using intuitive clinical judgment. Physicians were requested, in seven endocrinology meetings, to answer three questions: "Based on your personal expertise, after obtaining clinical history and physical examination, without using laboratorial tests, what is your probability of diagnosing Cushing's Syndrome?"; "For how long have you been practicing Endocrinology?"; and "Where do you work?". A Bayesian beta regression, using the WinBugs software was employed. We obtained 294 questionnaires. The mean pretest probability of CS diagnosis was 51.6% (95%CI: 48.7-54.3). The probability was directly related to experience in endocrinology, but not with the place of work. Pretest probability of CS diagnosis was estimated using a Bayesian methodology. Although pretest likelihood can be context-dependent, experience based on years of practice may help the practitioner to diagnosis CS.

Multifractal analysis with the probability density function at the three-dimensional anderson transition.

PubMed

Rodriguez, Alberto; Vasquez, Louella J; Römer, Rudolf A

2009-03-13

The probability density function (PDF) for critical wave function amplitudes is studied in the three-dimensional Anderson model. We present a formal expression between the PDF and the multifractal spectrum f(alpha) in which the role of finite-size corrections is properly analyzed. We show the non-Gaussian nature and the existence of a symmetry relation in the PDF. From the PDF, we extract information about f(alpha) at criticality such as the presence of negative fractal dimensions and the possible existence of termination points. A PDF-based multifractal analysis is shown to be a valid alternative to the standard approach based on the scaling of inverse participation ratios.

Standardized Laboratory Test Requirements for Hardening Equipment to Withstand Wave Impact Shock in Small High Speed Craft

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-02-06

and methodology for transitioning craft acceleration data to laboratory shock test requirements are summarized and example requirements for...engineering rationale, assumptions, and methodology for transitioning craft acceleration data to laboratory shock test requirements are summarized and... Methodologies for Small High-Speed Craft Structure, Equipment, Shock Isolation Seats, and Human Performance At-Sea, 10 th Symposium on High

Laboratory investigations of earthquake dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Kaiwen

In this thesis this will be attempted through controlled laboratory experiments that are designed to mimic natural earthquake scenarios. The earthquake dynamic rupturing process itself is a complicated phenomenon, involving dynamic friction, wave propagation, and heat production. Because controlled experiments can produce results without assumptions needed in theoretical and numerical analysis, the experimental method is thus advantageous over theoretical and numerical methods. Our laboratory fault is composed of carefully cut photoelastic polymer plates (Homahte-100, Polycarbonate) held together by uniaxial compression. As a unique unit of the experimental design, a controlled exploding wire technique provides the triggering mechanism of laboratory earthquakes. Three important components of real earthquakes (i.e., pre-existing fault, tectonic loading, and triggering mechanism) correspond to and are simulated by frictional contact, uniaxial compression, and the exploding wire technique. Dynamic rupturing processes are visualized using the photoelastic method and are recorded via a high-speed camera. Our experimental methodology, which is full-field, in situ, and non-intrusive, has better control and diagnostic capacity compared to other existing experimental methods. Using this experimental approach, we have investigated several problems: dynamics of earthquake faulting occurring along homogeneous faults separating identical materials, earthquake faulting along inhomogeneous faults separating materials with different wave speeds, and earthquake faulting along faults with a finite low wave speed fault core. We have observed supershear ruptures, subRayleigh to supershear rupture transition, crack-like to pulse-like rupture transition, self-healing (Heaton) pulse, and rupture directionality.

Alternative Fuel Transit Bus Evaluation Program Results

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1996-05-06

The objective of this program, which is supported by the U.S. Department of : Energy (DOE) through the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), is to : provide an unbiased and comprehensive comparison of transit buses operating on : alternative f...

Strategies for a successful organizational transition. Identifying staff roles and fulfilling their needs during changing times.

PubMed

Herbst, D S; Dimmick, J E

1995-01-01

For a successful reorganization of the laboratory, there is a role for each staff member to play during the transition. The role of those in laboratory administration is that of leading change agent. Corporate support staff, such as those in a human resources department, can advise the laboratory director in their areas of expertise. The role of the medical and technical supervisory staff is that of chief implementers of the plan. General laboratory staff has a confusing dual role--not only must they continue to provide laboratory services during the transition, but they also may have to change what they are doing and how they are doing it. Success also depends on meeting the individual personal needs of staff. Laboratory directors and administrators want to make a meaningful contribution to health care. Corporate support staff need to feel that they are a part of the change process. Supervisors' needs vary--coping with the loss of identity, position, or territory will be difficult for some; others will want to be involved in all stages of planning and implementation. The major need of the general laboratory staff is stability. Strategies are listed for each staff grouping to help the laboratory director coordinate staff roles and satisfy staff needs during the transition period.

Evaluation of the photoionization probability of H2+ by the trajectory semiclassical method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arkhipov, D. N.; Astashkevich, S. A.; Mityureva, A. A.; Smirnov, V. V.

2018-07-01

The trajectory-based method for calculating the probabilities of transitions in the quantum system developed in our previous works and tested for atoms is applied to calculating the photoionization probability for the simplest molecule - hydrogen molecular ion. In a weak field it is established a good agreement between our photoionization cross section and the data obtained by other theoretical methods for photon energy in the range from one-photon ionization threshold up to 25 a.u. Photoionization cross section in the range 25 < ω ≤ 100 a.u. was calculated for the first time judging by the literature known to us. It is also confirmed that the trajectory method works in a wide range of the field magnitudes including superatomic values up to relativistic intensity.

Comparison of on-road emissions for hybrid and regular transit buses.

PubMed

Hallmark, Shauna L; Wang, Bo; Sperry, Robert

2013-10-01

Hybrid technology offers an attractive option for transit buses, since it has the potential to significantly reduce operating costs for transit agencies. The main impetus behind use of hybrid transit vehicles is fuel savings and reduced emissions. Laboratory tests have indicated that hybrid transit buses can have significantly lower emissions compared with conventional transit buses. However the number of studies is limited and laboratory tests may not represent actual driving conditions, since in-use vehicle operation differs from laboratory test cycles. This paper describes an on-road evaluation of in-use emission differences between hybrid-electric and conventional transit buses for the Ames, Iowa transit authority, CyRide. Emissions were collected on-road using a portable emissions monitoring system (PEMS) for three hybrid and two control buses. Emissions were collected for at least one operating bus day. Each bus was evaluated over the same route pattern, which utilizes the same driver. The number of passengers embarking or disembarking at each stop was collected by an on-board data collector so that passenger load could be included. Vehicle emissions are correlated to engine load demand, which is a function of factors such as vehicle load, speed, and acceleration. PEMS data are provided second by second and vehicle-specific power (VSP) was calculated for each row of data. Instantaneous data were stratified into the defined VSP bins and then average modal emission rates and standard errors were calculated for each bus for each pollutant. Pollutants were then compared by bus type. Carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, and hydrocarbon emissions were higher for the regular buses across most VSP bins than for the hybrid buses. Nitrogen oxide emissions were unexpectedly higher for the hybrid buses than for the control buses.

Reliability of the Most-Probable-Number Technique for Enumerating Rhizobia in Tropical Soils †

PubMed Central

Woomer, Paul L.; Singleton, Paul W.; Bohlool, B. Ben

1988-01-01

We used six rhizobium-legume systems to test the reliability of the most-probable-number (MPN) technique for enumerating rhizobia introduced into 14 sites representing four soil orders. The range-of-transition values (the number of dilution steps between the first not-entirely-positive and the last not-entirely-negative growth units) were compared for each species and for each soil. The probability that the observed data were significantly different from theoretical values varied with the species. The acceptability of MPN codes (P > 0.99) was the highest (97 to 99%) with Vicia sativa, Trifolium repens, and Glycine max and lowest (72%) with Leucaena leucocephala. Medicago sativa and Macroptilium atropurpureum yielded 87 and 75% acceptable MPN codes, respectively. The acceptability of the MPN data obtained for a host species was related to rooting habit and time to nodulation. Comparison of data for each soil indicated that, despite large differences in characteristics, the soil was not a major source of variability in the MPN counts. There was no significant interaction of the range of transition of rhizobium-legume plant infection count data between species and site. PMID:16347661

A new model for bed load sampler calibration to replace the probability-matching method

Treesearch

Robert B. Thomas; Jack Lewis

1993-01-01

In 1977 extensive data were collected to calibrate six Helley-Smith bed load samplers with four sediment particle sizes in a flume at the St. Anthony Falls Hydraulic Laboratory at the University of Minnesota. Because sampler data cannot be collected at the same time and place as ""true"" trap measurements, the ""probability-matching...

Participatory design of probability-based decision support tools for in-hospital nurses.

PubMed

Jeffery, Alvin D; Novak, Laurie L; Kennedy, Betsy; Dietrich, Mary S; Mion, Lorraine C

2017-11-01

To describe nurses' preferences for the design of a probability-based clinical decision support (PB-CDS) tool for in-hospital clinical deterioration. A convenience sample of bedside nurses, charge nurses, and rapid response nurses (n = 20) from adult and pediatric hospitals completed participatory design sessions with researchers in a simulation laboratory to elicit preferred design considerations for a PB-CDS tool. Following theme-based content analysis, we shared findings with user interface designers and created a low-fidelity prototype. Three major themes and several considerations for design elements of a PB-CDS tool surfaced from end users. Themes focused on "painting a picture" of the patient condition over time, promoting empowerment, and aligning probability information with what a nurse already believes about the patient. The most notable design element consideration included visualizing a temporal trend of the predicted probability of the outcome along with user-selected overlapping depictions of vital signs, laboratory values, and outcome-related treatments and interventions. Participants expressed that the prototype adequately operationalized requests from the design sessions. Participatory design served as a valuable method in taking the first step toward developing PB-CDS tools for nurses. This information about preferred design elements of tools that support, rather than interrupt, nurses' cognitive workflows can benefit future studies in this field as well as nurses' practice. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association 2017. This work is written by US Government employees and is in the public domain in the United States.

Factors Influencing Ball-Player Impact Probability in Youth Baseball

PubMed Central

Matta, Philip A.; Myers, Joseph B.; Sawicki, Gregory S.

2015-01-01

Background: Altering the weight of baseballs for youth play has been studied out of concern for player safety. Research has shown that decreasing the weight of baseballs may limit the severity of both chronic arm and collision injuries. Unfortunately, reducing the weight of the ball also increases its exit velocity, leaving pitchers and nonpitchers with less time to defend themselves. The purpose of this study was to examine impact probability for pitchers and nonpitchers. Hypothesis: Reducing the available time to respond by 10% (expected from reducing ball weight from 142 g to 113 g) would increase impact probability for pitchers and nonpitchers, and players’ mean simple response time would be a primary predictor of impact probability for all participants. Study Design: Nineteen subjects between the ages of 9 and 13 years performed 3 experiments in a controlled laboratory setting: a simple response time test, an avoidance response time test, and a pitching response time test. Methods: Each subject performed these tests in order. The simple reaction time test tested the subjects’ mean simple response time, the avoidance reaction time test tested the subjects’ ability to avoid a simulated batted ball as a fielder, and the pitching reaction time test tested the subjects’ ability to avoid a simulated batted ball as a pitcher. Results: Reducing the weight of a standard baseball from 142 g to 113 g led to a less than 5% increase in impact probability for nonpitchers. However, the results indicate that the impact probability for pitchers could increase by more than 25%. Conclusion: Pitching may greatly increase the amount of time needed to react and defend oneself from a batted ball. Clinical Relevance: Impact injuries to youth baseball players may increase if a 113-g ball is used. PMID:25984261

4th generation HIV screening in Massachusetts: a partnership between laboratory and program.

PubMed

Goodhue, Tammy; Kazianis, Arthur; Werner, Barbara G; Stiles, Tracy; Callis, Barry P; Dawn Fukuda, H; Cranston, Kevin

2013-12-01

The Massachusetts Department of Public Health's (MDPH) Office of HIV/AIDS (OHA) and Hinton State Laboratory Institute (HSLI) have offered HIV screening since 1985. Point-of-care screening and serum collection for laboratory-based testing is conducted at clinic and non-clinic-based sites across Massachusetts as part of an integrated communicable disease screening intervention. MDPH aimed to transition to a 4th generation HIV screening-based algorithm for testing all serum specimens collected at OHA-funded programs and submitted to the HSLI to detect acute HIV infections, detect and differentiate HIV-1 and HIV-2 infections, eliminate indeterminate results, reduce cost and turnaround time, and link newly diagnosed HIV+ individuals to care. The HSLI and OHA created a joint project management team to plan and lead the transition. The laboratory transitioned successfully to a 4th generation screening assay as part of a revised diagnostic algorithm. In the 12 months since implementation, a total of 7984 serum specimens were tested with 258 (3.2%) positive for HIV-1 and one positive for HIV-2. Eight were reported as acute HIV-1 infections. These individuals were linked to medical care and partner services in a timely manner. Turnaround time was reduced and the laboratory realized an overall cost savings of approximately 15%. The identification of eight acute HIV infections in the first year underscores the importance of using the most sensitive screening tests available. A multi-disciplinary program and laboratory team was critical to the success of the transition, and the lessons learned may be useful for other jurisdictions. Published by Elsevier B.V.

The Spitzer search for the transits of HARPS low-mass planets. II. Null results for 19 planets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gillon, M.; Demory, B.-O.; Lovis, C.; Deming, D.; Ehrenreich, D.; Lo Curto, G.; Mayor, M.; Pepe, F.; Queloz, D.; Seager, S.; Ségransan, D.; Udry, S.

2017-05-01

Short-period super-Earths and Neptunes are now known to be very frequent around solar-type stars. Improving our understanding of these mysterious planets requires the detection of a significant sample of objects suitable for detailed characterization. Searching for the transits of the low-mass planets detected by Doppler surveys is a straightforward way to achieve this goal. Indeed, Doppler surveys target the most nearby main-sequence stars, they regularly detect close-in low-mass planets with significant transit probability, and their radial velocity data constrain strongly the ephemeris of possible transits. In this context, we initiated in 2010 an ambitious Spitzer multi-Cycle transit search project that targeted 25 low-mass planets detected by radial velocity, focusing mainly on the shortest-period planets detected by the HARPS spectrograph. We report here null results for 19 targets of the project. For 16 planets out of 19, a transiting configuration is strongly disfavored or firmly rejected by our data for most planetary compositions. We derive a posterior probability of 83% that none of the probed 19 planets transits (for a prior probability of 22%), which still leaves a significant probability of 17% that at least one of them does transit. Globally, our Spitzer project revealed or confirmed transits for three of its 25 targeted planets, and discarded or disfavored the transiting nature of 20 of them. Our light curves demonstrate for Warm Spitzer excellent photometric precisions: for 14 targets out of 19, we were able to reach standard deviations that were better than 50 ppm per 30 min intervals. Combined with its Earth-trailing orbit, which makes it capable of pointing any star in the sky and to monitor it continuously for days, this work confirms Spitzer as an optimal instrument to detect sub-mmag-deep transits on the bright nearby stars targeted by Doppler surveys. The photometric and radial velocity time series used in this work are only available at the

Decision Modeling in Sleep Apnea: The Critical Roles of Pretest Probability, Cost of Untreated Obstructive Sleep Apnea, and Time Horizon

PubMed Central

Moro, Marilyn; Westover, M. Brandon; Kelly, Jessica; Bianchi, Matt T.

2016-01-01

Study Objectives: Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is associated with increased morbidity and mortality, and treatment with positive airway pressure (PAP) is cost-effective. However, the optimal diagnostic strategy remains a subject of debate. Prior modeling studies have not consistently supported the widely held assumption that home sleep testing (HST) is cost-effective. Methods: We modeled four strategies: (1) treat no one; (2) treat everyone empirically; (3) treat those testing positive during in-laboratory polysomnography (PSG) via in-laboratory titration; and (4) treat those testing positive during HST with auto-PAP. The population was assumed to lack independent reasons for in-laboratory PSG (such as insomnia, periodic limb movements in sleep, complex apnea). We considered the third-party payer perspective, via both standard (quality-adjusted) and pure cost methods. Results: The preferred strategy depended on three key factors: pretest probability of OSA, cost of untreated OSA, and time horizon. At low prevalence and low cost of untreated OSA, the treat no one strategy was favored, whereas empiric treatment was favored for high prevalence and high cost of untreated OSA. In-laboratory backup for failures in the at-home strategy increased the preference for the at-home strategy. Without laboratory backup in the at-home arm, the in-laboratory strategy was increasingly preferred at longer time horizons. Conclusion: Using a model framework that captures a broad range of clinical possibilities, the optimal diagnostic approach to uncomplicated OSA depends on pretest probability, cost of untreated OSA, and time horizon. Estimating each of these critical factors remains a challenge warranting further investigation. Citation: Moro M, Westover MB, Kelly J, Bianchi MT. Decision modeling in sleep apnea: the critical roles of pretest probability, cost of untreated obstructive sleep apnea, and time horizon. J Clin Sleep Med 2016;12(3):409–418. PMID:26518699

RTGs on Transit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dassoulas, John; McNutt, Ralph L.

2007-01-01

Transit, the US Navy's Navigation Satellite System was conceived at the Applied Physics Laboratory in 1957 by observing the Doppler shift while tracking Sputnik I. As spacecraft development proceeded there was concern about the ability of batteries to maintain the hermetic seal over a 5-year operational life requirement; therefore, alternate energy sources were investigated. The radioisotope thermoelectric generator (RTG) concept was pursued and resulted in the launch of SNAP 3s, providing partial power on both Transit 4A and 4B. SNAP 9s provided full power on three Transit 5BNs. All launches occurred in the early 1960s. When the U.S. conducted the high altitude nuclear test from Johnson Island, several spacecraft were lost due to artificial enhancement of charged particles in the Earth's magnetosphere resulting in rapid degradation of solar cell power production. This led to the decision to have both an RTG and Solar cell/battery design for Transit power systems; hence, a new RTG design, with a separable heat source and radiative coupling to the thermoelectric elements, was flown on TRIAD. This pioneering effort provided the impetus for future RTGs on interplanetary spacecraft. This paper describes the origin and purpose of the Transit program and provides details on the five satellites in that program that were powered by the first American RTGs used in space. The rationale and some of the challenges inherent in that use are also described.

Laboratory Measurements Of Charge-exchange Produced X-ray Emission From K-shell Transitions In Hydrogenic And Helium-like Fe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Gregory V.; Beiersdorfer, P.; Boyce, K. R.; Chen, H.; Gu, M. F.; Kelley, R. L.; Kilbourne, C. A.; Porter, F. S.; Thorn, D.; Wargelin, B.

2006-09-01

We have used a microcalorimeter and solid state detectors to measure x-ray emission produced by charge exchange reactions between bare and hydrogenic Fe colliding with neutral helium, hydrogen, and nitrogen gas. We show the measured spectral signature produced by different neutral donors and compare our results to theory where available. We also compare our results to measurements of the Fe K line emission from the Galactic Center measured by the XIS on the Suzaku x-ray observatory. This comparison shows that charge exchange recombination between highly charged ions (either cosmic rays or thermal ions) and neutral gas is probably not the dominant source of diffuse line emission in the Galactic Center. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by University of California, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract W-7405-Eng-48, and is also supported by NASA APRA grants to LLNL, GSFC, Harvard-Smithsonian CfA, and Stanford University.

From professional monopoly to corporate oligopoly:the clinical laboratory industry in transition.

PubMed

Bailey, R M

1977-02-01

Until the mid-1960s the nonhospital clinical laboratory industry was dominated by pathologists. The ethics of medical professionalism protected the pathologists' market from price competition and from any serious threat from new entrants into the market. Immune from the competitive pressures of the marketplace, pathologists exerted monopoly control in local markets. That power was eroded by laboratories operated by technologists and bioanalysts and was finally overcome by the entry of large corporations into the industry. The market power of the largest corporate laboratories is now growing to a point where competition may again be thwarted. The professional ethics of pathologists allowed high prices, but there was little push toward higher volume. The commercial ethics of the corporate entrants brought lower prices but resulted in strong pressure for greater test quantities. In either case, the power wielded by the dominant producer would seem to go against the consumer's interests.

Sudden transition and sudden change from open spin environments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hu, Zheng-Da; School of Science, Jiangnan University, Wuxi 214122; Xu, Jing-Bo, E-mail: xujb@zju.edu.cn

2014-11-15

We investigate the necessary conditions for the existence of sudden transition or sudden change phenomenon for appropriate initial states under dephasing. As illustrative examples, we study the behaviors of quantum correlation dynamics of two noninteracting qubits in independent and common open spin environments, respectively. For the independent environments case, we find that the quantum correlation dynamics is closely related to the Loschmidt echo and the dynamics exhibits a sudden transition from classical to quantum correlation decay. It is also shown that the sudden change phenomenon may occur for the common environment case and stationary quantum discord is found at themore » high temperature region of the environment. Finally, we investigate the quantum criticality of the open spin environment by exploring the probability distribution of the Loschmidt echo and the scaling transformation behavior of quantum discord, respectively. - Highlights: • Sudden transition or sudden change from open spin baths are studied. • Quantum discord is related to the Loschmidt echo in independent open spin baths. • Steady quantum discord is found in a common open spin bath. • The probability distribution of the Loschmidt echo is analyzed. • The scaling transformation behavior of quantum discord is displayed.« less

Oscillator strengths and branching fractions of 4d75p-4d75s Rh II transitions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouazza, Safa

2017-01-01

This work reports semi-empirical determination of oscillator strengths, transition probabilities and branching fractions for Rh II 4d75p-4d75s transitions in a wide wavelength range. The angular coefficients of the transition matrix, beforehand obtained in pure SL coupling with help of Racah algebra are transformed into intermediate coupling using eigenvector amplitudes of these two configuration levels determined for this purpose; The transition integral was treated as free parameter in the least squares fit to experimental oscillator strength (gf) values found in literature. The extracted value: <4d75s|r1|4d75p> =2.7426 ± 0.0007 is slightly smaller than that computed by means of ab-initio method. Subsequently to oscillator strength evaluations, transition probabilities and branching fractions were deduced and compared to those obtained experimentally or through another approach like pseudo-relativistic Hartree-Fock model including core-polarization effects.

Multielectron transitions in x-ray absorption of krypton

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ito, Yoshiaki; Nakamatsu, Hirohide; Mukoyama, Takeshi; Omote, Kazuhiko; Yoshikado, Shinzo; Takahashi, Masao; Emura, Shuichi

1992-11-01

The photoabsorption cross section near the K edge in krypton gas has been measured using synchro- tron radiation. Several features for simultaneous multielectron excitations were detected and analyzed by the use of the shakeup and shakeoff probabilities and their dependence on the photon energy. Previous observations of the [1s3p], [1s3d], and [1s4p] transitions have been confirmed. A transition is found between [1s3p] and [1s3d] multiple excitations and identified as a three-electron excitation [1s3d4p].

Continuation of probability density functions using a generalized Lyapunov approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Baars, S., E-mail: s.baars@rug.nl; Viebahn, J.P., E-mail: viebahn@cwi.nl; Mulder, T.E., E-mail: t.e.mulder@uu.nl

Techniques from numerical bifurcation theory are very useful to study transitions between steady fluid flow patterns and the instabilities involved. Here, we provide computational methodology to use parameter continuation in determining probability density functions of systems of stochastic partial differential equations near fixed points, under a small noise approximation. Key innovation is the efficient solution of a generalized Lyapunov equation using an iterative method involving low-rank approximations. We apply and illustrate the capabilities of the method using a problem in physical oceanography, i.e. the occurrence of multiple steady states of the Atlantic Ocean circulation.

On Probability Domains IV

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frič, Roman; Papčo, Martin

2017-12-01

Stressing a categorical approach, we continue our study of fuzzified domains of probability, in which classical random events are replaced by measurable fuzzy random events. In operational probability theory (S. Bugajski) classical random variables are replaced by statistical maps (generalized distribution maps induced by random variables) and in fuzzy probability theory (S. Gudder) the central role is played by observables (maps between probability domains). We show that to each of the two generalized probability theories there corresponds a suitable category and the two resulting categories are dually equivalent. Statistical maps and observables become morphisms. A statistical map can send a degenerated (pure) state to a non-degenerated one —a quantum phenomenon and, dually, an observable can map a crisp random event to a genuine fuzzy random event —a fuzzy phenomenon. The dual equivalence means that the operational probability theory and the fuzzy probability theory coincide and the resulting generalized probability theory has two dual aspects: quantum and fuzzy. We close with some notes on products and coproducts in the dual categories.

Exact joint density-current probability function for the asymmetric exclusion process.

PubMed

Depken, Martin; Stinchcombe, Robin

2004-07-23

We study the asymmetric simple exclusion process with open boundaries and derive the exact form of the joint probability function for the occupation number and the current through the system. We further consider the thermodynamic limit, showing that the resulting distribution is non-Gaussian and that the density fluctuations have a discontinuity at the continuous phase transition, while the current fluctuations are continuous. The derivations are performed by using the standard operator algebraic approach and by the introduction of new operators satisfying a modified version of the original algebra. Copyright 2004 The American Physical Society

Empirical models of transitions between coral reef states: effects of region, protection, and environmental change.

PubMed

Lowe, Phillip K; Bruno, John F; Selig, Elizabeth R; Spencer, Matthew

2011-01-01

There has been substantial recent change in coral reef communities. To date, most analyses have focussed on static patterns or changes in single variables such as coral cover. However, little is known about how community-level changes occur at large spatial scales. Here, we develop Markov models of annual changes in coral and macroalgal cover in the Caribbean and Great Barrier Reef (GBR) regions. We analyzed reef surveys from the Caribbean and GBR (1996-2006). We defined a set of reef states distinguished by coral and macroalgal cover, and obtained Bayesian estimates of the annual probabilities of transitions between these states. The Caribbean and GBR had different transition probabilities, and therefore different rates of change in reef condition. This could be due to differences in species composition, management or the nature and extent of disturbances between these regions. We then estimated equilibrium probability distributions for reef states, and coral and macroalgal cover under constant environmental conditions. In both regions, the current distributions are close to equilibrium. In the Caribbean, coral cover is much lower and macroalgal cover is higher at equilibrium than in the GBR. We found no evidence for differences in transition probabilities between the first and second halves of our survey period, or between Caribbean reefs inside and outside marine protected areas. However, our power to detect such differences may have been low. We also examined the effects of altering transition probabilities on the community state equilibrium, along a continuum from unfavourable (e.g., increased sea surface temperature) to favourable (e.g., improved management) conditions. Both regions showed similar qualitative responses, but different patterns of uncertainty. In the Caribbean, uncertainty was greatest about effects of favourable changes, while in the GBR, we are most uncertain about effects of unfavourable changes. Our approach could be extended to provide

Clogging and jamming transitions in periodic obstacle arrays

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nguyen, Hong; Reichhardt, Charles; Olson Reichhardt, Cynthia Jane

2017-03-29

We numerically examine clogging transitions for bidisperse disks flowing through a two-dimensional periodic obstacle array. Here, we show that clogging is a probabilistic event that occurs through a transition from a homogeneous flowing state to a heterogeneous or phase-separated jammed state where the disks form dense connected clusters. The probability for clogging to occur during a fixed time increases with increasing particle packing and obstacle number. For driving at different angles with respect to the symmetry direction of the obstacle array, we show that certain directions have a higher clogging susceptibility. It is also possible to have a size-specific cloggingmore » transition in which one disk size becomes completely immobile while the other disk size continues to flow.« less

Detection of Terrestrial Planets Using Transit Photometry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koch, David; Witteborn, Fred; Jenkins, Jon; Dunham, Edward; Boruci, William; DeVincenzi, Donald (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Transit photometry detection of planets offers many advantages: an ability to detect terrestrial size planets, direct determination of the planet's size, applicability to all main-sequence stars, and a differential brightness change of the periodic signature being independent of stellar distance or planetary orbital semi-major axis. Ground and space based photometry have already been successful in detecting transits of the giant planet HD209458b. However, photometry 100 times better is required to detect terrestrial planets. We present results of laboratory measurements of an end-to-end photometric system incorporating all of the important confounding noise features of both the sky and a space based photometer including spacecraft jitter. In addition to demonstrating an instrumental noise of less than 10 ppm (an Earth transit of a solar-like star is 80 ppm), the brightnesses of individual stars were dimmed to simulate Earth-size transit signals. These 'transits' were reliably detected as part of the tests.

Identifying early-warning signals of critical transitions with strong noise by dynamical network markers

PubMed Central

Liu, Rui; Chen, Pei; Aihara, Kazuyuki; Chen, Luonan

2015-01-01

Identifying early-warning signals of a critical transition for a complex system is difficult, especially when the target system is constantly perturbed by big noise, which makes the traditional methods fail due to the strong fluctuations of the observed data. In this work, we show that the critical transition is not traditional state-transition but probability distribution-transition when the noise is not sufficiently small, which, however, is a ubiquitous case in real systems. We present a model-free computational method to detect the warning signals before such transitions. The key idea behind is a strategy: “making big noise smaller” by a distribution-embedding scheme, which transforms the data from the observed state-variables with big noise to their distribution-variables with small noise, and thus makes the traditional criteria effective because of the significantly reduced fluctuations. Specifically, increasing the dimension of the observed data by moment expansion that changes the system from state-dynamics to probability distribution-dynamics, we derive new data in a higher-dimensional space but with much smaller noise. Then, we develop a criterion based on the dynamical network marker (DNM) to signal the impending critical transition using the transformed higher-dimensional data. We also demonstrate the effectiveness of our method in biological, ecological and financial systems. PMID:26647650

Measurement of Plutonium-240 Angular Momentum Dependent Fission Probabilities Using the Alpha-Alpha' Reaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koglin, Johnathon

Accurate nuclear reaction data from a few keV to tens of MeV and across the table of nuclides is essential to a number of applications of nuclear physics, including national security, nuclear forensics, nuclear astrophysics, and nuclear energy. Precise determination of (n, f) and neutron capture cross sections for reactions in high- ux environments are particularly important for a proper understanding of nuclear reactor performance and stellar nucleosynthesis. In these extreme environments reactions on short-lived and otherwise difficult-to-produce isotopes play a significant role in system evolution and provide insights into the types of nuclear processes taking place; a detailed understanding of these processes is necessary to properly determine cross sections far from stability. Indirect methods are often attempted to measure cross sections on isotopes that are difficult to separate in a laboratory setting. Using the surrogate approach, the same compound nucleus from the reaction of interest is created through a "surrogate" reaction on a different isotope and the resulting decay is measured. This result is combined with appropriate reaction theory for compound nucleus population, from which the desired cross sections can be inferred. This method has shown promise, but the theoretical framework often lacks necessary experimental data to constrain models. In this work, dual arrays of silicon telescope particle identification detectors and photovoltaic (solar) cell fission fragment detectors have been used to measure the fission probability of the 240Pu(alpha, alpha'f) reaction - a surrogate for the 239Pu(n, f) - and fission of 35.9(2)MeV at eleven scattering angles from 40° to 140° in 10° intervals and at nuclear excitation energies up to 16MeV. Within experimental uncertainty, the maximum fission probability was observed at the neutron separation energy for each alpha scattering angle. Fission probabilities were separated into five 500 keV bins from 5:5MeV to

Intra-Urban Human Mobility and Activity Transition: Evidence from Social Media Check-In Data

PubMed Central

Wu, Lun; Zhi, Ye; Sui, Zhengwei; Liu, Yu

2014-01-01

Most existing human mobility literature focuses on exterior characteristics of movements but neglects activities, the driving force that underlies human movements. In this research, we combine activity-based analysis with a movement-based approach to model the intra-urban human mobility observed from about 15 million check-in records during a yearlong period in Shanghai, China. The proposed model is activity-based and includes two parts: the transition of travel demands during a specific time period and the movement between locations. For the first part, we find the transition probability between activities varies over time, and then we construct a temporal transition probability matrix to represent the transition probability of travel demands during a time interval. For the second part, we suggest that the travel demands can be divided into two classes, locationally mandatory activity (LMA) and locationally stochastic activity (LSA), according to whether the demand is associated with fixed location or not. By judging the combination of predecessor activity type and successor activity type we determine three trip patterns, each associated with a different decay parameter. To validate the model, we adopt the mechanism of an agent-based model and compare the simulated results with the observed pattern from the displacement distance distribution, the spatio-temporal distribution of activities, and the temporal distribution of travel demand transitions. The results show that the simulated patterns fit the observed data well, indicating that these findings open new directions for combining activity-based analysis with a movement-based approach using social media check-in data. PMID:24824892

Application of random match probability calculations to mixed STR profiles.

PubMed

Bille, Todd; Bright, Jo-Anne; Buckleton, John

2013-03-01

Mixed DNA profiles are being encountered more frequently as laboratories analyze increasing amounts of touch evidence. If it is determined that an individual could be a possible contributor to the mixture, it is necessary to perform a statistical analysis to allow an assignment of weight to the evidence. Currently, the combined probability of inclusion (CPI) and the likelihood ratio (LR) are the most commonly used methods to perform the statistical analysis. A third method, random match probability (RMP), is available. This article compares the advantages and disadvantages of the CPI and LR methods to the RMP method. We demonstrate that although the LR method is still considered the most powerful of the binary methods, the RMP and LR methods make similar use of the observed data such as peak height, assumed number of contributors, and known contributors where the CPI calculation tends to waste information and be less informative. © 2013 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

A temperate rocky super-Earth transiting a nearby cool star

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dittmann, Jason A.; Irwin, Jonathan M.; Charbonneau, David; Bonfils, Xavier; Astudillo-Defru, Nicola; Haywood, Raphaëlle D.; Berta-Thompson, Zachory K.; Newton, Elisabeth R.; Rodriguez, Joseph E.; Winters, Jennifer G.; Tan, Thiam-Guan; Almenara, Jose-Manuel; Bouchy, François; Delfosse, Xavier; Forveille, Thierry; Lovis, Christophe; Murgas, Felipe; Pepe, Francesco; Santos, Nuno C.; Udry, Stephane; Wünsche, Anaël; Esquerdo, Gilbert A.; Latham, David W.; Dressing, Courtney D.

2017-04-01

M dwarf stars, which have masses less than 60 per cent that of the Sun, make up 75 per cent of the population of the stars in the Galaxy. The atmospheres of orbiting Earth-sized planets are observationally accessible via transmission spectroscopy when the planets pass in front of these stars. Statistical results suggest that the nearest transiting Earth-sized planet in the liquid-water, habitable zone of an M dwarf star is probably around 10.5 parsecs away. A temperate planet has been discovered orbiting Proxima Centauri, the closest M dwarf, but it probably does not transit and its true mass is unknown. Seven Earth-sized planets transit the very low-mass star TRAPPIST-1, which is 12 parsecs away, but their masses and, particularly, their densities are poorly constrained. Here we report observations of LHS 1140b, a planet with a radius of 1.4 Earth radii transiting a small, cool star (LHS 1140) 12 parsecs away. We measure the mass of the planet to be 6.6 times that of Earth, consistent with a rocky bulk composition. LHS 1140b receives an insolation of 0.46 times that of Earth, placing it within the liquid-water, habitable zone. With 90 per cent confidence, we place an upper limit on the orbital eccentricity of 0.29. The circular orbit is unlikely to be the result of tides and therefore was probably present at formation. Given its large surface gravity and cool insolation, the planet may have retained its atmosphere despite the greater luminosity (compared to the present-day) of its host star in its youth. Because LHS 1140 is nearby, telescopes currently under construction might be able to search for specific atmospheric gases in the future.

A temperate rocky super-Earth transiting a nearby cool star.

PubMed

Dittmann, Jason A; Irwin, Jonathan M; Charbonneau, David; Bonfils, Xavier; Astudillo-Defru, Nicola; Haywood, Raphaëlle D; Berta-Thompson, Zachory K; Newton, Elisabeth R; Rodriguez, Joseph E; Winters, Jennifer G; Tan, Thiam-Guan; Almenara, Jose-Manuel; Bouchy, François; Delfosse, Xavier; Forveille, Thierry; Lovis, Christophe; Murgas, Felipe; Pepe, Francesco; Santos, Nuno C; Udry, Stephane; Wünsche, Anaël; Esquerdo, Gilbert A; Latham, David W; Dressing, Courtney D

2017-04-19

M dwarf stars, which have masses less than 60 per cent that of the Sun, make up 75 per cent of the population of the stars in the Galaxy. The atmospheres of orbiting Earth-sized planets are observationally accessible via transmission spectroscopy when the planets pass in front of these stars. Statistical results suggest that the nearest transiting Earth-sized planet in the liquid-water, habitable zone of an M dwarf star is probably around 10.5 parsecs away. A temperate planet has been discovered orbiting Proxima Centauri, the closest M dwarf, but it probably does not transit and its true mass is unknown. Seven Earth-sized planets transit the very low-mass star TRAPPIST-1, which is 12 parsecs away, but their masses and, particularly, their densities are poorly constrained. Here we report observations of LHS 1140b, a planet with a radius of 1.4 Earth radii transiting a small, cool star (LHS 1140) 12 parsecs away. We measure the mass of the planet to be 6.6 times that of Earth, consistent with a rocky bulk composition. LHS 1140b receives an insolation of 0.46 times that of Earth, placing it within the liquid-water, habitable zone. With 90 per cent confidence, we place an upper limit on the orbital eccentricity of 0.29. The circular orbit is unlikely to be the result of tides and therefore was probably present at formation. Given its large surface gravity and cool insolation, the planet may have retained its atmosphere despite the greater luminosity (compared to the present-day) of its host star in its youth. Because LHS 1140 is nearby, telescopes currently under construction might be able to search for specific atmospheric gases in the future.

The multi-level perspective analysis: Indonesia geothermal energy transition study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wisaksono, A.; Murphy, J.; Sharp, J. H.; Younger, P. L.

2018-01-01

The study adopts a multi-level perspective in technology transition to analyse how the transition process in the development of geothermal energy in Indonesia is able to compete against the incumbent fossil-fuelled energy sources. Three levels of multi-level perspective are socio-technical landscape (ST-landscape), socio-technical regime (ST-regime) and niche innovations in Indonesia geothermal development. The identification, mapping and analysis of the dynamic relationship between each level are the important pillars of the multi-level perspective framework. The analysis considers the set of rules, actors and controversies that may arise in the technological transition process. The identified geothermal resource risks are the basis of the emerging geothermal technological innovations in Indonesian geothermal. The analysis of this study reveals the transition pathway, which yields a forecast for the Indonesian geothermal technology transition in the form of scenarios and probable impacts.

Risks and probabilities of breast cancer: short-term versus lifetime probabilities.

PubMed Central

Bryant, H E; Brasher, P M

1994-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To calculate age-specific short-term and lifetime probabilities of breast cancer among a cohort of Canadian women. DESIGN: Double decrement life table. SETTING: Alberta. SUBJECTS: Women with first invasive breast cancers registered with the Alberta Cancer Registry between 1985 and 1987. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Lifetime probability of breast cancer from birth and for women at various ages; short-term (up to 10 years) probability of breast cancer for women at various ages. RESULTS: The lifetime probability of breast cancer is 10.17% at birth and peaks at 10.34% at age 25 years, after which it decreases owing to a decline in the number of years over which breast cancer risk will be experienced. However, the probability of manifesting breast cancer in the next year increases steadily from the age of 30 onward, reaching 0.36% at 85 years. The probability of manifesting the disease within the next 10 years peaks at 2.97% at age 70 and decreases thereafter, again owing to declining probabilities of surviving the interval. CONCLUSIONS: Given that the incidence of breast cancer among Albertan women during the study period was similar to the national average, we conclude that currently more than 1 in 10 women in Canada can expect to have breast cancer at some point during their life. However, risk varies considerably over a woman's lifetime, with most risk concentrated after age 49. On the basis of the shorter-term age-specific risks that we present, the clinician can put breast cancer risk into perspective for younger women and heighten awareness among women aged 50 years or more. PMID:8287343

External noise-induced transitions in a current-biased Josephson junction

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huang, Qiongwei; Xue, Changfeng, E-mail: cfxue@163.com; Tang, Jiashi

We investigate noise-induced transitions in a current-biased and weakly damped Josephson junction in the presence of multiplicative noise. By using the stochastic averaging procedure, the averaged amplitude equation describing dynamic evolution near a constant phase difference is derived. Numerical results show that a stochastic Hopf bifurcation between an absorbing and an oscillatory state occurs. This means the external controllable noise triggers a transition into the non-zero junction voltage state. With the increase of noise intensity, the stationary probability distribution peak shifts and is characterised by increased width and reduced height. And the different transition rates are shown for large andmore » small bias currents.« less

Launch Collision Probability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bollenbacher, Gary; Guptill, James D.

1999-01-01

This report analyzes the probability of a launch vehicle colliding with one of the nearly 10,000 tracked objects orbiting the Earth, given that an object on a near-collision course with the launch vehicle has been identified. Knowledge of the probability of collision throughout the launch window can be used to avoid launching at times when the probability of collision is unacceptably high. The analysis in this report assumes that the positions of the orbiting objects and the launch vehicle can be predicted as a function of time and therefore that any tracked object which comes close to the launch vehicle can be identified. The analysis further assumes that the position uncertainty of the launch vehicle and the approaching space object can be described with position covariance matrices. With these and some additional simplifying assumptions, a closed-form solution is developed using two approaches. The solution shows that the probability of collision is a function of position uncertainties, the size of the two potentially colliding objects, and the nominal separation distance at the point of closest approach. ne impact of the simplifying assumptions on the accuracy of the final result is assessed and the application of the results to the Cassini mission, launched in October 1997, is described. Other factors that affect the probability of collision are also discussed. Finally, the report offers alternative approaches that can be used to evaluate the probability of collision.

Guide star probabilities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Soneira, R. M.; Bahcall, J. N.

1981-01-01

Probabilities are calculated for acquiring suitable guide stars (GS) with the fine guidance system (FGS) of the space telescope. A number of the considerations and techniques described are also relevant for other space astronomy missions. The constraints of the FGS are reviewed. The available data on bright star densities are summarized and a previous error in the literature is corrected. Separate analytic and Monte Carlo calculations of the probabilities are described. A simulation of space telescope pointing is carried out using the Weistrop north galactic pole catalog of bright stars. Sufficient information is presented so that the probabilities of acquisition can be estimated as a function of position in the sky. The probability of acquiring suitable guide stars is greatly increased if the FGS can allow an appreciable difference between the (bright) primary GS limiting magnitude and the (fainter) secondary GS limiting magnitude.

Commercialization of a DOE Laboratory

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stephenson, Barry A.

2008-01-15

On April 1, 1998, Materials and Chemistry Laboratory, Inc. (MCLinc) began business as an employee-owned, commercial, applied research laboratory offering services to both government and commercial clients. The laboratory had previously been a support laboratory to DoE's gaseous diffusion plant in Oak Ridge (K-25). When uranium enrichment was halted at the site, the laboratory was expanded to as an environmental demonstration center and served from 1992 until 1997 as a DOE Environmental User Facility. In 1997, after the laboratory was declared surplus, it was made available to the employee group who operated the laboratory for DOE as a government-owned, contractor-operatedmore » facility. This paper describes briefly the process of establishing the business. Attributes that contributed to the success of MCLinc are described. Some attention is given to lessons learned and to changes that could facilitate future attempts to make similar transitions. Lessons learnt: as with any business venture, operation over time has revealed that some actions taken by the laboratory founders have contributed to its successful operation while others were not so successful. Observations are offered in hopes that lessons learned may suggest actions that will facilitate future attempts to make similar transitions. First, the decision to vest significant ownership of the business in the core group of professionals operating the business is key to its success. Employee-owners of the laboratory have consistently provided a high level of service to its customers while conducting business in a cost-efficient manner. Secondly, an early decision to provide business support services in-house rather than purchasing them from support contractors on site have proven cost-effective. Laboratory employees do multiple tasks and perform overhead tasks in addition to their chargeable technical responsibilities. Thirdly, assessment of technical capabilities in view of market needs and a decision to

log gf values for astrophysically important transitions Fe II

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deb, N. C.; Hibbert, A.

2014-01-01

Aims: In a recent measurement, Meléndez & Barbuy (2009, A&A, 497, 611) report accurate log gf values for 142 important astrophysical lines with wavelengths in the range 4000 Å to 8000 Å. Their results include both solar and laboratory measurements. In this paper, we describe a theoretical study of these lines. Methods: The CIV3 structure codes, combined with our "fine-tuning" extrapolation process, are used to undertake a large-scale CI calculation involving the lowest 262 fine-structure levels belonging to the 3d64s, 3d7, 3d54s2, 3d64p, and 3d54s4p configurations. Results: We find that many of the 142 transitions are very weak intercombination lines. Other transitions are weak because the dominant configurations in the two levels differ by two orbitals. Conclusions: The comparison between our log gf values and the experimental values generally shows good agreement for most of these transitions, with our theoretical values agreeing slightly more closely with the solar than with the laboratory measurements. A detailed analysis of the small number of transitions for which the agreement between theory and experiment is not as good shows that such disagreements largely arise from severe cancellation due to CI mixing.

Solvable multistate model of Landau-Zener transitions in cavity QED

DOE PAGES

Sinitsyn, Nikolai; Li, Fuxiang

2016-06-29

We consider the model of a single optical cavity mode interacting with two-level systems (spins) driven by a linearly time-dependent field. When this field passes through values at which spin energy level splittings become comparable to spin coupling to the optical mode, a cascade of Landau-Zener (LZ) transitions leads to co-flips of spins in exchange for photons of the cavity. We derive exact transition probabilities between different diabatic states induced by such a sweep of the field.

Exotic Molecules in Space: A Coordinated Astronomical Laboratory and Theoretical Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thaddeus, Patrick

1999-01-01

The past three years have been a period of great progress in our laboratory investigation of molecules of astrophysical interest-the most productive by far in the 20-year history of a research program which has led to the discovery of over 20% of the 123 known interstellar and circumstellar molecules. Most of the discoveries made during this period have been the result of the construction in late 1995 and early 1996 of a Fourier transform microwave spectrometer working in the centimeter-wave band. The sensitivity of this instrument from the moment that it was turned on has exceeded our expectations by an order of magnitude. The Table below shows the 46 new molecules which have been discovered. Most are carbon chains, the dominant type of molecule which has been found in space. Several comments with respect to these molecules should be made: 1. There are probably no mistakes in any of the identifications, since these have been confirmed by the standard, powerful assays and tests used to check spectroscopic identifications: isotopic substitution, quantum calculations of the expected molecular structures, detection of hyperfine structure, Zeeman effect, etc. 2. The radio laboratory astrophysics of the entire set is complete for the time being, in the sense that essentially all the astronomically interesting radio transitions (including hfs when present) are either directly measured or can now be calculated from the derived spectroscopic constants to better than 1 part per million (or 0.3 km s-1 in radial velocity, and often much better than that). 3. Six of the forty six new molecules have already been identified in space, in every case but one on the basis of our laboratory measurements. 4. Sensitive as they are, our laboratory techniques are far from fundamental limits on sensitivity, and 5. One of the principal motivations of our research is to close the fairly small mass and size gap, now only a factor of a few, between the smallest postulated interstellar grains

Automated Transition State Search and Its Application to Diverse Types of Organic Reactions.

PubMed

Jacobson, Leif D; Bochevarov, Art D; Watson, Mark A; Hughes, Thomas F; Rinaldo, David; Ehrlich, Stephan; Steinbrecher, Thomas B; Vaitheeswaran, S; Philipp, Dean M; Halls, Mathew D; Friesner, Richard A

2017-11-14

Transition state search is at the center of multiple types of computational chemical predictions related to mechanistic investigations, reactivity and regioselectivity predictions, and catalyst design. The process of finding transition states in practice is, however, a laborious multistep operation that requires significant user involvement. Here, we report a highly automated workflow designed to locate transition states for a given elementary reaction with minimal setup overhead. The only essential inputs required from the user are the structures of the separated reactants and products. The seamless workflow combining computational technologies from the fields of cheminformatics, molecular mechanics, and quantum chemistry automatically finds the most probable correspondence between the atoms in the reactants and the products, generates a transition state guess, launches a transition state search through a combined approach involving the relaxing string method and the quadratic synchronous transit, and finally validates the transition state via the analysis of the reactive chemical bonds and imaginary vibrational frequencies as well as by the intrinsic reaction coordinate method. Our approach does not target any specific reaction type, nor does it depend on training data; instead, it is meant to be of general applicability for a wide variety of reaction types. The workflow is highly flexible, permitting modifications such as a choice of accuracy, level of theory, basis set, or solvation treatment. Successfully located transition states can be used for setting up transition state guesses in related reactions, saving computational time and increasing the probability of success. The utility and performance of the method are demonstrated in applications to transition state searches in reactions typical for organic chemistry, medicinal chemistry, and homogeneous catalysis research. In particular, applications of our code to Michael additions, hydrogen abstractions

Variables Affecting Probability of Detection in Bolt Hole Eddy Current Inspection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lemire, H.; Krause, T. W.; Bunn, M.; Butcher, D. J.

2009-03-01

Physical variables affecting probability of detection (POD) in a bolt-hole eddy current inspection were examined. The POD study involved simulated bolt holes in 7075-T6 aluminum coupons representative of wing areas on CC-130 and CP-140 aircraft. The data were obtained from 24 inspectors who inspected 468 coupons, containing a subset of coupons with 45 electric discharge machined notches and 72 laboratory grown fatigue cracks located at the inner surface corner of the bi-layer structures. A comparison of physical features of cracks and notches in light of skin depth effects and probe geometry was used to identify length rather than depth as the significant variable producing signal variation. Probability of detection based on length produced similar results for the two discontinuity types, except at lengths less than 0.4 mm, where POD for cracks was found to be higher than that of notches.

NASA's Propulsion Research Laboratory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2004-01-01

The grand opening of NASA's new, world-class laboratory for research into future space transportation technologies located at the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) in Huntsville, Alabama, took place in July 2004. The state-of-the-art Propulsion Research Laboratory (PRL) serves as a leading national resource for advanced space propulsion research. Its purpose is to conduct research that will lead to the creation and development of innovative propulsion technologies for space exploration. The facility is the epicenter of the effort to move the U.S. space program beyond the confines of conventional chemical propulsion into an era of greatly improved access to space and rapid transit throughout the solar system. The laboratory is designed to accommodate researchers from across the United States, including scientists and engineers from NASA, the Department of Defense, the Department of Energy, universities, and industry. The facility, with 66,000 square feet of useable laboratory space, features a high degree of experimental capability. Its flexibility allows it to address a broad range of propulsion technologies and concepts, such as plasma, electromagnetic, thermodynamic, and propellant propulsion. An important area of emphasis is the development and utilization of advanced energy sources, including highly energetic chemical reactions, solar energy, and processes based on fission, fusion, and antimatter. The Propulsion Research Laboratory is vital for developing the advanced propulsion technologies needed to open up the space frontier, and sets the stage of research that could revolutionize space transportation for a broad range of applications.

Time delay and long-range connection induced synchronization transitions in Newman-Watts small-world neuronal networks.

PubMed

Qian, Yu

2014-01-01

The synchronization transitions in Newman-Watts small-world neuronal networks (SWNNs) induced by time delay τ and long-range connection (LRC) probability P have been investigated by synchronization parameter and space-time plots. Four distinct parameter regions, that is, asynchronous region, transition region, synchronous region, and oscillatory region have been discovered at certain LRC probability P = 1.0 as time delay is increased. Interestingly, desynchronization is observed in oscillatory region. More importantly, we consider the spatiotemporal patterns obtained in delayed Newman-Watts SWNNs are the competition results between long-range drivings (LRDs) and neighboring interactions. In addition, for moderate time delay, the synchronization of neuronal network can be enhanced remarkably by increasing LRC probability. Furthermore, lag synchronization has been found between weak synchronization and complete synchronization as LRC probability P is a little less than 1.0. Finally, the two necessary conditions, moderate time delay and large numbers of LRCs, are exposed explicitly for synchronization in delayed Newman-Watts SWNNs.

Time Delay and Long-Range Connection Induced Synchronization Transitions in Newman-Watts Small-World Neuronal Networks

PubMed Central

Qian, Yu

2014-01-01

The synchronization transitions in Newman-Watts small-world neuronal networks (SWNNs) induced by time delay and long-range connection (LRC) probability have been investigated by synchronization parameter and space-time plots. Four distinct parameter regions, that is, asynchronous region, transition region, synchronous region, and oscillatory region have been discovered at certain LRC probability as time delay is increased. Interestingly, desynchronization is observed in oscillatory region. More importantly, we consider the spatiotemporal patterns obtained in delayed Newman-Watts SWNNs are the competition results between long-range drivings (LRDs) and neighboring interactions. In addition, for moderate time delay, the synchronization of neuronal network can be enhanced remarkably by increasing LRC probability. Furthermore, lag synchronization has been found between weak synchronization and complete synchronization as LRC probability is a little less than 1.0. Finally, the two necessary conditions, moderate time delay and large numbers of LRCs, are exposed explicitly for synchronization in delayed Newman-Watts SWNNs. PMID:24810595

A refuge for inorganic chemistry: Bunsen's Heidelberg laboratory.

PubMed

Nawa, Christine

2014-05-01

Immediately after its opening in 1855, Bunsen's Heidelberg laboratory became iconic as the most modern and best equipped laboratory in Europe. Although comparatively modest in size, the laboratory's progressive equipment made it a role model for new construction projects in Germany and beyond. In retrospect, it represents an intermediate stage of development between early teaching facilities, such as Liebig's laboratory in Giessen, and the new 'chemistry palaces' that came into existence with Wöhler's Göttingen laboratory of 1860. As a 'transition laboratory,' Bunsen's Heidelberg edifice is of particular historical interest. This paper explores the allocation of spaces to specific procedures and audiences within the laboratory, and the hierarchies and professional rites of passage embedded within it. On this basis, it argues that the laboratory in Heidelberg was tailored to Bunsen's needs in inorganic and physical chemistry and never aimed at a broad-scale representation of chemistry as a whole. On the contrary, it is an example of early specialisation within a chemical laboratory preceding the process of differentiation into chemical sub-disciplines. Finally, it is shown that the relatively small size of this laboratory, and the fact that after ca. 1860 no significant changes were made within the building, are inseparably connected to Bunsen's views on chemistry teaching.

Smart Electronic Laboratory Notebooks for the NIST Research Environment.

PubMed

Gates, Richard S; McLean, Mark J; Osborn, William A

2015-01-01

Laboratory notebooks have been a staple of scientific research for centuries for organizing and documenting ideas and experiments. Modern laboratories are increasingly reliant on electronic data collection and analysis, so it seems inevitable that the digital revolution should come to the ordinary laboratory notebook. The most important aspect of this transition is to make the shift as comfortable and intuitive as possible, so that the creative process that is the hallmark of scientific investigation and engineering achievement is maintained, and ideally enhanced. The smart electronic laboratory notebooks described in this paper represent a paradigm shift from the old pen and paper style notebooks and provide a host of powerful operational and documentation capabilities in an intuitive format that is available anywhere at any time.

Smart Electronic Laboratory Notebooks for the NIST Research Environment

PubMed Central

Gates, Richard S.; McLean, Mark J.; Osborn, William A.

2015-01-01

Laboratory notebooks have been a staple of scientific research for centuries for organizing and documenting ideas and experiments. Modern laboratories are increasingly reliant on electronic data collection and analysis, so it seems inevitable that the digital revolution should come to the ordinary laboratory notebook. The most important aspect of this transition is to make the shift as comfortable and intuitive as possible, so that the creative process that is the hallmark of scientific investigation and engineering achievement is maintained, and ideally enhanced. The smart electronic laboratory notebooks described in this paper represent a paradigm shift from the old pen and paper style notebooks and provide a host of powerful operational and documentation capabilities in an intuitive format that is available anywhere at any time. PMID:26958447

Microstructure-Sensitive Extreme Value Probabilities for High Cycle Fatigue of Ni-Base Superalloy IN100 (Preprint)

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-03-01

transition fatigue regimes; however, microplasticity (i.e., heterogeneous plasticity at the scale of microstructure) is relevant to understanding fatigue...and Socie [57] considered the affect of microplastic 14 Microstructure-Sensitive Extreme Value Probabilities for High Cycle Fatigue of Ni-Base...considers the local stress state as affected by intergranular interactions and microplasticity . For the calculations given below, the volumes over which

Dynamical quantum phase transitions: a review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heyl, Markus

2018-05-01

Quantum theory provides an extensive framework for the description of the equilibrium properties of quantum matter. Yet experiments in quantum simulators have now opened up a route towards the generation of quantum states beyond this equilibrium paradigm. While these states promise to show properties not constrained by equilibrium principles, such as the equal a priori probability of the microcanonical ensemble, identifying the general properties of nonequilibrium quantum dynamics remains a major challenge, especially in view of the lack of conventional concepts such as free energies. The theory of dynamical quantum phase transitions attempts to identify such general principles by lifting the concept of phase transitions to coherent quantum real-time evolution. This review provides a pedagogical introduction to this field. Starting from the general setting of nonequilibrium dynamics in closed quantum many-body systems, we give the definition of dynamical quantum phase transitions as phase transitions in time with physical quantities becoming nonanalytic at critical times. We summarize the achieved theoretical advances as well as the first experimental observations, and furthermore provide an outlook to major open questions as well as future directions of research.

Dynamical quantum phase transitions: a review.

PubMed

Heyl, Markus

2018-05-01

Quantum theory provides an extensive framework for the description of the equilibrium properties of quantum matter. Yet experiments in quantum simulators have now opened up a route towards the generation of quantum states beyond this equilibrium paradigm. While these states promise to show properties not constrained by equilibrium principles, such as the equal a priori probability of the microcanonical ensemble, identifying the general properties of nonequilibrium quantum dynamics remains a major challenge, especially in view of the lack of conventional concepts such as free energies. The theory of dynamical quantum phase transitions attempts to identify such general principles by lifting the concept of phase transitions to coherent quantum real-time evolution. This review provides a pedagogical introduction to this field. Starting from the general setting of nonequilibrium dynamics in closed quantum many-body systems, we give the definition of dynamical quantum phase transitions as phase transitions in time with physical quantities becoming nonanalytic at critical times. We summarize the achieved theoretical advances as well as the first experimental observations, and furthermore provide an outlook to major open questions as well as future directions of research.

A brief introduction to probability.

PubMed

Di Paola, Gioacchino; Bertani, Alessandro; De Monte, Lavinia; Tuzzolino, Fabio

2018-02-01

The theory of probability has been debated for centuries: back in 1600, French mathematics used the rules of probability to place and win bets. Subsequently, the knowledge of probability has significantly evolved and is now an essential tool for statistics. In this paper, the basic theoretical principles of probability will be reviewed, with the aim of facilitating the comprehension of statistical inference. After a brief general introduction on probability, we will review the concept of the "probability distribution" that is a function providing the probabilities of occurrence of different possible outcomes of a categorical or continuous variable. Specific attention will be focused on normal distribution that is the most relevant distribution applied to statistical analysis.

Transition path theory analysis of c-Src kinase activation

PubMed Central

Meng, Yilin; Shukla, Diwakar; Pande, Vijay S.; Roux, Benoît

2016-01-01

Nonreceptor tyrosine kinases of the Src family are large multidomain allosteric proteins that are crucial to cellular signaling pathways. In a previous study, we generated a Markov state model (MSM) to simulate the activation of c-Src catalytic domain, used as a prototypical tyrosine kinase. The long-time kinetics of transition predicted by the MSM was in agreement with experimental observations. In the present study, we apply the framework of transition path theory (TPT) to the previously constructed MSM to characterize the main features of the activation pathway. The analysis indicates that the activating transition, in which the activation loop first opens up followed by an inward rotation of the αC-helix, takes place via a dense set of intermediate microstates distributed within a fairly broad “transition tube” in a multidimensional conformational subspace connecting the two end-point conformations. Multiple microstates with negligible equilibrium probabilities carry a large transition flux associated with the activating transition, which explains why extensive conformational sampling is necessary to accurately determine the kinetics of activation. Our results suggest that the combination of MSM with TPT provides an effective framework to represent conformational transitions in complex biomolecular systems. PMID:27482115

Probability of satellite collision

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mccarter, J. W.

1972-01-01

A method is presented for computing the probability of a collision between a particular artificial earth satellite and any one of the total population of earth satellites. The collision hazard incurred by the proposed modular Space Station is assessed using the technique presented. The results of a parametric study to determine what type of satellite orbits produce the greatest contribution to the total collision probability are presented. Collision probability for the Space Station is given as a function of Space Station altitude and inclination. Collision probability was also parameterized over miss distance and mission duration.

Experimental Probability in Elementary School

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Andrew, Lane

2009-01-01

Concepts in probability can be more readily understood if students are first exposed to probability via experiment. Performing probability experiments encourages students to develop understandings of probability grounded in real events, as opposed to merely computing answers based on formulae.

Phase Transitions in Aluminum Under Shockless Compression at the Z Machine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, Jean-Paul; Brown, Justin; Shulenburger, Luke; Knudson, Marcus

2017-06-01

Aluminum 6061 alloy has been used extensively as an electrode material in shockless ramp-wave experiments at the Z Machine. Previous theoretical work suggests that the principal quasi-isentrope in aluminum should pass through two phase transitions at multi-megabar pressures, first from the ambient fcc phase to hcp at around 200 GPa, then to bcc at around 320 GPa. Previous static measurements in a diamond-anvil cell have detected the hcp phase above 200 GPa along the room-temperature isentherm. Recent laser-based dynamic compression experiments have observed both the hcp and bcc phases using X-ray diffraction. Here we present high-accuracy velocity waveform data taken on pure and alloy aluminum materials at the Z Machine under shockless compression with 200-ns rise-time to 400 GPa using copper electrodes and lithium-fluoride windows. These are compared to recent EOS tables developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory, to our own results from diffusion quantum Monte-Carlo calculations, and to multi-phase EOS models with phase-transition kinetics. We find clear evidence of a fast transition around 200 GPa as expected, and a possible suggestion of a slower transition at higher pressure. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE AC04-94AL85000.

KINETIC ENERGY DISTRIBUTION OF H(1s) FROM H{sub 2} X {sup 1}{Sigma}{sup +} {sub g}-a {sup 3}{Sigma}{sup +} {sub g} EXCITATION AND LIFETIMES AND TRANSITION PROBABILITIES OF a {sup 3}{Sigma}{sup +} {sub g}(v, J)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu Xianming; Johnson, Paul V.; Malone, Charles P.

Dissociative excitation of molecular hydrogen plays an important role in the heating of outer planet upper thermospheres. This paper addresses the role of one of the triplet states involved in the process. H{sub 2} excited to the a {sup 3}{Sigma}{sup +} {sub g} state, or higher triplet-ungerade states, is dissociated via the a {sup 3}{Sigma}{sup +} {sub g}-b {sup 3}{Sigma}{sup +} {sub u} continuum. The kinetic energy distribution of H(1s) produced from direct X {sup 1}{Sigma}{sup +} {sub g}-a {sup 3}{Sigma}{sup +} {sub g}(v, J) excitation by electrons is investigated by an accurate theoretical evaluation of spontaneous transition probabilities ofmore » the a {sup 3}{Sigma}{sup +} {sub g}(v, J)-b {sup 3}{Sigma}{sup +} {sub u} continuum transition. It is shown that the X {sup 1}{Sigma}{sup +} {sub g}(0)-a {sup 3}{Sigma}{sup +} {sub g}(v, J) excitation primarily produces H(1s) atoms with kinetic energies lower than 2 eV. In addition to the continuum a {sup 3}{Sigma}{sup +} {sub g}(v, J)-b {sup 3}{Sigma}{sup +} {sub u} transition probabilities, spontaneous emission lifetimes of the a {sup 3}{Sigma}{sup +} {sub g}(v, J) (v = 0-20, J {<=} 14) levels have been calculated by considering both the a {sup 3}{Sigma}{sup +} {sub g}-b {sup 3}{Sigma}{sup +} {sub u} and a {sup 3}{Sigma}{sup +} {sub g}-c {sup 3}{Pi} {sub u} transitions. The calculated lifetimes show a moderately strong rotational dependence, and the lifetimes for the J = 0 rotational level of the low v levels agree well with previous calculations and experimental measurements. Calculations of the a {sup 3}{Sigma}{sup +} {sub g}-b {sup 3}{Sigma}{sup +} {sub u} continuum emission spectra from electron impact X {sup 1}{Sigma}{sup +} {sub g}-a {sup 3}{Sigma}{sup +} {sub g} excitation are included.« less

Miniaturization and globalization of clinical laboratory activities.

PubMed

Melo, Murilo R; Clark, Samantha; Barrio, Daniel

2011-04-01

Clinical laboratories provide an invaluable service to millions of people around the world in the form of quality diagnostic care. Within the clinical laboratory industry the impetus for change has come from technological development (miniaturization, nanotechnology, and their collective effect on point-of-care testing; POCT) and the increasingly global nature of laboratory services. Potential technological gains in POCT include: the development of bio-sensors, microarrays, genetics and proteomics testing, and enhanced web connectivity. In globalization, prospective opportunities lie in: medical tourism, the migration of healthcare workers, cross-border delivery of testing, and the establishment of accredited laboratories in previously unexplored markets. Accompanying these impressive opportunities are equally imposing challenges. Difficulty transitioning from research to clinical use, poor infrastructure in developing countries, cultural differences and national barriers to global trade are only a few examples. Dealing with the issues presented by globalization and the impact of developing technology on POCT, and on the clinical laboratory services industry in general, will be a daunting task. Despite such concerns, with appropriate countermeasures it will be possible to address the challenges posed. Future laboratory success will be largely dependent on one's ability to adapt in this perpetually shifting landscape.

Precise calculation of a bond percolation transition and survival rates of nodes in a complex network.

PubMed

Kawamoto, Hirokazu; Takayasu, Hideki; Jensen, Henrik Jeldtoft; Takayasu, Misako

2015-01-01

Through precise numerical analysis, we reveal a new type of universal loopless percolation transition in randomly removed complex networks. As an example of a real-world network, we apply our analysis to a business relation network consisting of approximately 3,000,000 links among 300,000 firms and observe the transition with critical exponents close to the mean-field values taking into account the finite size effect. We focus on the largest cluster at the critical point, and introduce survival probability as a new measure characterizing the robustness of each node. We also discuss the relation between survival probability and k-shell decomposition.

Measurement of entropy generation within bypass transitional flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skifton, Richard; Budwig, Ralph; McEligot, Donald; Crepeau, John

2012-11-01

A flat plate made from quartz was submersed in the Idaho National Laboratory's Matched Index of Refraction (MIR) flow facility. PIV was utilized to capture spatial vectors maps at near wall locations with five to ten points within the viscous sublayer. Entropy generation was calculated directly from measured velocity fluctuation derivatives. Two flows were studied: a zero pressure gradient and an adverse pressure gradient (β = -0.039). The free stream turbulence intensity to drive bypass transition ranged between 3% (near trailing edge) and 8% (near leading edge). The pointwise entropy generation rate will be utilized as a design parameter to systematically reduce losses. As a second observation, the pointwise entropy can be shown to predict the onset of transitional flow. This research was partially supported by the DOE EPSCOR program, grant DE-SC0004751 and by the Idaho National Laboratory. Center for Advanced Energy Studies.

Laboratory Measurements of the K-Shell Transition Energies in L-Shell Ions of Si and S

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hell, N.; Brown, G.V.; Wilms, J.; Grinberg, V.; Clementson, J.; Liedahl, D.; Porter, F. S.; Kelley, R. L.; Kilbourne, C. A.; Beiersrdorfer, P.

2016-01-01

We have measured the energies of the strongest 1s-2 l (azimuthal quantum number) (l = s, p (s, p are angular momentum states)) transitions in He- through Ne-like silicon and sulfur ions to an accuracy of less than 1 electronvolt using the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory's electron beam ion traps, EBIT-I and SuperEBIT, and the NASA/GSFC EBIT Calorimeter Spectrometer (ECS). We identify and measure the energies of 18 and 21 X-ray features from silicon and sulfur, respectively. The results are compared to new Flexible Atomic Code calculations and to semi-relativistic Hartree-Fock calculations by Palmeri et al. (2008). These results will be especially useful for wind diagnostics in high-mass X-ray binaries, such as Vela X-1 and Cygnus X-1, where high-resolution spectral measurements using Chandra's high-energy transmission grating has made it possible to measure Doppler shifts of 100 kilometers per second. The accuracy of our measurements is consistent with that needed to analyze Chandra observations, exceeding Chandra's 100 kilometers per second limit. Hence, the results presented here not only provide benchmarks for theory, but also accurate rest energies that can be used to determine the bulk motion of material in astrophysical sources. We show the usefulness of our results by applying them to redetermine Doppler shifts from Chandra observations of Vela X-1.

Corrigendum to ;Relativistic calculations for M1-type transitions in 4dN configurations of W29+ - W37+ ions; [At. Data Nucl. Data Tables 98 (2012) 19-42

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jonauskas, V.; Gaigalas, G.; Kučas, S.

2018-01-01

In the original paper [1], some minor misprints have occurred in Table 3 for wavelengths of the W32+ and W34+ ions. Furthermore, from the FAC calculations, the emission probabilities instead ofabsorption probabilities were presented (Table 3). The wavelengths, transition probabilities and oscillator strengths of magnetic dipole transitions were misprinted for W31+, W32+, W33+, and W34+ in Table 4.

Relationship between Adolescent Risk Preferences on a Laboratory Task and Behavioral Measures of Risk-taking

PubMed Central

Rao, Uma; Sidhartha, Tanuj; Harker, Karen R.; Bidesi, Anup S.; Chen, Li-Ann; Ernst, Monique

2010-01-01

Purpose The goal of the study was to assess individual differences in risk-taking behavior among adolescents in the laboratory. A second aim was to evaluate whether the laboratory-based risk-taking behavior is associated with other behavioral and psychological measures associated with risk-taking behavior. Methods Eighty-two adolescents with no personal history of psychiatric disorder completed a computerized decision-making task, the Wheel of Fortune (WOF). By offering choices between clearly defined probabilities and real monetary outcomes, this task assesses risk preferences when participants are confronted with potential rewards and losses. The participants also completed a variety of behavioral and psychological measures associated with risk-taking behavior. Results Performance on the task varied based on the probability and anticipated outcomes. In the winning sub-task, participants selected low probability-high magnitude reward (high-risk choice) less frequently than high probability-low magnitude reward (low-risk choice). In the losing sub-task, participants selected low probability-high magnitude loss more often than high probability-low magnitude loss. On average, the selection of probabilistic rewards was optimal and similar to performance in adults. There were, however, individual differences in performance, and one-third of the adolescents made high-risk choice more frequently than low-risk choice while selecting a reward. After controlling for sociodemographic and psychological variables, high-risk choice on the winning task predicted “real-world” risk-taking behavior and substance-related problems. Conclusions These findings highlight individual differences in risk-taking behavior. Preliminary data on face validity of the WOF task suggest that it might be a valuable laboratory tool for studying behavioral and neurobiological processes associated with risk-taking behavior in adolescents. PMID:21257113

Explore Stochastic Instabilities of Periodic Points by Transition Path Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Yu; Lin, Ling; Zhou, Xiang

2016-06-01

We consider the noise-induced transitions from a linearly stable periodic orbit consisting of T periodic points in randomly perturbed discrete logistic map. Traditional large deviation theory and asymptotic analysis at small noise limit cannot distinguish the quantitative difference in noise-induced stochastic instabilities among the T periodic points. To attack this problem, we generalize the transition path theory to the discrete-time continuous-space stochastic process. In our first criterion to quantify the relative instability among T periodic points, we use the distribution of the last passage location related to the transitions from the whole periodic orbit to a prescribed disjoint set. This distribution is related to individual contributions to the transition rate from each periodic points. The second criterion is based on the competency of the transition paths associated with each periodic point. Both criteria utilize the reactive probability current in the transition path theory. Our numerical results for the logistic map reveal the transition mechanism of escaping from the stable periodic orbit and identify which periodic point is more prone to lose stability so as to make successful transitions under random perturbations.

Quantum Theory of Hyperfine Structure Transitions in Diatomic Molecules.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Klempt, E.; And Others

1979-01-01

Described is an advanced undergraduate laboratory experiment in which radio-frequency transitions between molecular hyperfine structure states may be observed. Aspects of the quantum theory applied to the analysis of this physical system, are discussed. (Authors/BT)

Environmental DNA (eDNA) Detection Probability Is Influenced by Seasonal Activity of Organisms.

PubMed

de Souza, Lesley S; Godwin, James C; Renshaw, Mark A; Larson, Eric

2016-01-01

Environmental DNA (eDNA) holds great promise for conservation applications like the monitoring of invasive or imperiled species, yet this emerging technique requires ongoing testing in order to determine the contexts over which it is effective. For example, little research to date has evaluated how seasonality of organism behavior or activity may influence detection probability of eDNA. We applied eDNA to survey for two highly imperiled species endemic to the upper Black Warrior River basin in Alabama, US: the Black Warrior Waterdog (Necturus alabamensis) and the Flattened Musk Turtle (Sternotherus depressus). Importantly, these species have contrasting patterns of seasonal activity, with N. alabamensis more active in the cool season (October-April) and S. depressus more active in the warm season (May-September). We surveyed sites historically occupied by these species across cool and warm seasons over two years with replicated eDNA water samples, which were analyzed in the laboratory using species-specific quantitative PCR (qPCR) assays. We then used occupancy estimation with detection probability modeling to evaluate both the effects of landscape attributes on organism presence and season of sampling on detection probability of eDNA. Importantly, we found that season strongly affected eDNA detection probability for both species, with N. alabamensis having higher eDNA detection probabilities during the cool season and S. depressus have higher eDNA detection probabilities during the warm season. These results illustrate the influence of organismal behavior or activity on eDNA detection in the environment and identify an important role for basic natural history in designing eDNA monitoring programs.

Advanced ab initio relativistic calculations of transition probabilities for some O I and O III emission lines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nguyen, T. V. B.; Chantler, C. T.; Lowe, J. A.; Grant, I. P.

2014-06-01

This work presents new ab initio relativistic calculations using the multiconfiguration Dirac-Hartree-Fock method of some O I and O III transition lines detected in B-type and Wolf-Rayet stars. Our results are the first able to be presented in both the length and velocity gauges, with excellent gauge convergence. Compared to previous experimental and theoretical uncertainties of up to 50 per cent, our accuracies appear to be in the range of 0.33-5.60 per cent, with gauge convergence up to 0.6 per cent. Similar impressive convergence of the calculated energies is also shown. Two sets of theoretical computations are compared with earlier tabulated measurements. Excellent agreement is obtained with one set of transitions but an interesting and consistent discrepancy exists between the current work and the prior literature, deserving of future experimental studies.

ERP Correlates of Verbal and Numerical Probabilities in Risky Choices: A Two-Stage Probability Processing View

PubMed Central

Li, Shu; Du, Xue-Lei; Li, Qi; Xuan, Yan-Hua; Wang, Yun; Rao, Li-Lin

2016-01-01

Two kinds of probability expressions, verbal and numerical, have been used to characterize the uncertainty that people face. However, the question of whether verbal and numerical probabilities are cognitively processed in a similar manner remains unresolved. From a levels-of-processing perspective, verbal and numerical probabilities may be processed differently during early sensory processing but similarly in later semantic-associated operations. This event-related potential (ERP) study investigated the neural processing of verbal and numerical probabilities in risky choices. The results showed that verbal probability and numerical probability elicited different N1 amplitudes but that verbal and numerical probabilities elicited similar N2 and P3 waveforms in response to different levels of probability (high to low). These results were consistent with a levels-of-processing framework and suggest some internal consistency between the cognitive processing of verbal and numerical probabilities in risky choices. Our findings shed light on possible mechanism underlying probability expression and may provide the neural evidence to support the translation of verbal to numerical probabilities (or vice versa). PMID:26834612

USDA, ARS Soft Wheat Quality Laboratory, Annual Report 2011

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The report describes new activities for the lab including the a transitions in the laboratory and activites on the USDA, NIFA-funded Triticeae CAP project. Recent research on milling and quality evaluations, data management, molecular evaluations, stem rust resistance from the lab are highlighted, ...

Effect of the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control and Voluntary Industry Health Warning Labels on Passage of Mandated Cigarette Warning Labels From 1965 to 2012: Transition Probability and Event History Analyses

PubMed Central

Sanders-Jackson, Ashley N.; Song, Anna V.; Hiilamo, Heikki

2013-01-01

Objectives. We quantified the pattern and passage rate of cigarette package health warning labels (HWLs), including the effect of the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) and HWLs voluntarily implemented by tobacco companies. Methods. We used transition probability matrices to describe the pattern of HWL passage and change rate in 4 periods. We used event history analysis to estimate the effect of the FCTC on adoption and to compare that effect between countries with voluntary and mandatory HWLs. Results. The number of HWLs passed during each period accelerated, from a transition rate among countries that changed from 2.42 per year in 1965–1977 to 6.71 in 1977–1984, 8.42 in 1984–2003, and 22.33 in 2003–2012. The FCTC significantly accelerated passage of FCTC-compliant HWLs for countries with initially mandatory policies with a hazard of 1.27 per year (95% confidence interval = 1.11, 1.45), but only marginally increased the hazard for countries that had an industry voluntary HWL of 1.68 per year (95% confidence interval = 0.95, 2.97). Conclusions. Passage of HWLs is accelerating, and the FCTC is associated with further acceleration. Industry voluntary HWLs slowed mandated HWLs. PMID:24028248

Applying generalized stochastic Petri nets to manufacturing systems containing nonexponential transition functions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Watson, James F., III; Desrochers, Alan A.

1991-01-01

Generalized stochastic Petri nets (GSPNs) are applied to flexible manufacturing systems (FMSs). Throughput subnets and s-transitions are presented. Two FMS examples containing nonexponential distributions which were analyzed in previous papers by queuing theory and probability theory, respectively, are treated using GSPNs developed using throughput subnets and s-transitions. The GSPN results agree with the previous results, and developing and analyzing the GSPN models are straightforward and relatively easy compared to other methodologies.

The Electrochemical Synthesis of Transition-Metal Acetylacetonates

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Long, S. R.; Browning, S. R.; Lagowski, J. J.

2008-01-01

The electrochemical synthesis of transition-metal acetylacetonates described here can form the basis of assisting in the transformation of an entry-level laboratory course into a research-like environment where all members of a class are working on the same problem, but where each member has a personal responsibility for the synthesis and…

Propensity, Probability, and Quantum Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ballentine, Leslie E.

2016-08-01

Quantum mechanics and probability theory share one peculiarity. Both have well established mathematical formalisms, yet both are subject to controversy about the meaning and interpretation of their basic concepts. Since probability plays a fundamental role in QM, the conceptual problems of one theory can affect the other. We first classify the interpretations of probability into three major classes: (a) inferential probability, (b) ensemble probability, and (c) propensity. Class (a) is the basis of inductive logic; (b) deals with the frequencies of events in repeatable experiments; (c) describes a form of causality that is weaker than determinism. An important, but neglected, paper by P. Humphreys demonstrated that propensity must differ mathematically, as well as conceptually, from probability, but he did not develop a theory of propensity. Such a theory is developed in this paper. Propensity theory shares many, but not all, of the axioms of probability theory. As a consequence, propensity supports the Law of Large Numbers from probability theory, but does not support Bayes theorem. Although there are particular problems within QM to which any of the classes of probability may be applied, it is argued that the intrinsic quantum probabilities (calculated from a state vector or density matrix) are most naturally interpreted as quantum propensities. This does not alter the familiar statistical interpretation of QM. But the interpretation of quantum states as representing knowledge is untenable. Examples show that a density matrix fails to represent knowledge.

Medical concepts related to individual risk are better explained with "plausibility" rather than "probability".

PubMed

Grossi, Enzo

2005-09-27

The concept of risk has pervaded medical literature in the last decades and has become a familiar topic, and the concept of probability, linked to binary logic approach, is commonly applied in epidemiology and clinical medicine. The application of probability theory to groups of individuals is quite straightforward but can pose communication challenges at individual level. Few articles by the way have tried to focus the concept of "risk" at the individual subject level rather than at population level. The author has reviewed the conceptual framework which has led to the use of probability theory in the medical field in a time when the principal causes of death were represented by acute disease often of infective origin. In the present scenario, in which chronic degenerative disease dominate and there are smooth transitions between health and disease the use of fuzzy logic rather than binary logic would be more appropriate. The use of fuzzy logic in which more than two possible truth-value assignments are allowed overcomes the trap of probability theory when dealing with uncertain outcomes, thereby making the meaning of a certain prognostic statement easier to understand by the patient. At individual subject level the recourse to the term plausibility, related to fuzzy logic, would help the physician to communicate to the patient more efficiently in comparison with the term probability, related to binary logic. This would represent an evident advantage for the transfer of medical evidences to individual subjects.

Trajectory-based understanding of the quantum-classical transition for barrier scattering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chou, Chia-Chun

2018-06-01

The quantum-classical transition of wave packet barrier scattering is investigated using a hydrodynamic description in the framework of a nonlinear Schrödinger equation. The nonlinear equation provides a continuous description for the quantum-classical transition of physical systems by introducing a degree of quantumness. Based on the transition equation, the transition trajectory formalism is developed to establish the connection between classical and quantum trajectories. The quantum-classical transition is then analyzed for the scattering of a Gaussian wave packet from an Eckart barrier and the decay of a metastable state. Computational results for the evolution of the wave packet and the transmission probabilities indicate that classical results are recovered when the degree of quantumness tends to zero. Classical trajectories are in excellent agreement with the transition trajectories in the classical limit, except in some regions where transition trajectories cannot cross because of the single-valuedness of the transition wave function. As the computational results demonstrate, the process that the Planck constant tends to zero is equivalent to the gradual removal of quantum effects originating from the quantum potential. This study provides an insightful trajectory interpretation for the quantum-classical transition of wave packet barrier scattering.

Anatomic pathology laboratory information systems: a review.

PubMed

Park, Seung Lyung; Pantanowitz, Liron; Sharma, Gaurav; Parwani, Anil Vasdev

2012-03-01

The modern anatomic pathology laboratory depends on a reliable information infrastructure to register specimens, record gross and microscopic findings, regulate laboratory workflow, formulate and sign out report(s), disseminate them to the intended recipients across the whole health system, and support quality assurance measures. This infrastructure is provided by the Anatomical Pathology Laboratory Information Systems (APLIS), which have evolved over decades and now are beginning to support evolving technologies like asset tracking and digital imaging. As digital pathology transitions from "the way of the future" to "the way of the present," the APLIS continues to be one of the key effective enablers of the scope and practice of pathology. In this review, we discuss the evolution, necessary components, architecture and functionality of the APLIS that are crucial to today's practicing pathologist and address the demands of emerging trends on the future APLIS.

Structural Transitions in Densifying Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lambiotte, R.; Krapivsky, P. L.; Bhat, U.; Redner, S.

2016-11-01

We introduce a minimal generative model for densifying networks in which a new node attaches to a randomly selected target node and also to each of its neighbors with probability p . The networks that emerge from this copying mechanism are sparse for p <1/2 and dense (average degree increasing with number of nodes N ) for p ≥1/2 . The behavior in the dense regime is especially rich; for example, individual network realizations that are built by copying are disparate and not self-averaging. Further, there is an infinite sequence of structural anomalies at p =2/3 , 3/4 , 4/5 , etc., where the N dependences of the number of triangles (3-cliques), 4-cliques, undergo phase transitions. When linking to second neighbors of the target can occur, the probability that the resulting graph is complete—all nodes are connected—is nonzero as N →∞ .

Laboratory Design for Microbiological Safety

PubMed Central

Phillips, G. Briggs; Runkle, Robert S.

1967-01-01

Of the large amount of funds spent each year in this country on construction and remodeling of biomedical research facilities, a significant portion is directed to laboratories handling infectious microorganisms. This paper is intended for the scientific administrators, architects, and engineers concerned with the design of new microbiological facilities. It develops and explains the concept of primary and secondary barriers for the containment of microorganisms. The basic objectives of a microbiological research laboratory, (i) protection of the experimenter and staff, (ii) protection of the surrounding community, and (iii) maintenance of experimental validity, are defined. In the design of a new infectious-disease research laboratory, early identification should be made of the five functional zones of the facility and their relation to each other. The following five zones and design criteria applicable to each are discussed: clean and transition, research area, animal holding and research area, laboratory support, engineering support. The magnitude of equipment and design criteria which are necessary to integrate these five zones into an efficient and safe facility are delineated. Images Fig. 1 Fig. 3 Fig. 4 Fig. 5 Fig. 6 Fig. 7 Fig. 8 Fig. 9 Fig. 10 Fig. 11 Fig. 12 Fig. 13 Fig. 14 Fig. 15 Fig. 16 Fig. 17 Fig. 18 Fig. 19 PMID:4961771

Decision analysis with approximate probabilities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whalen, Thomas

1992-01-01

This paper concerns decisions under uncertainty in which the probabilities of the states of nature are only approximately known. Decision problems involving three states of nature are studied. This is due to the fact that some key issues do not arise in two-state problems, while probability spaces with more than three states of nature are essentially impossible to graph. The primary focus is on two levels of probabilistic information. In one level, the three probabilities are separately rounded to the nearest tenth. This can lead to sets of rounded probabilities which add up to 0.9, 1.0, or 1.1. In the other level, probabilities are rounded to the nearest tenth in such a way that the rounded probabilities are forced to sum to 1.0. For comparison, six additional levels of probabilistic information, previously analyzed, were also included in the present analysis. A simulation experiment compared four criteria for decisionmaking using linearly constrained probabilities (Maximin, Midpoint, Standard Laplace, and Extended Laplace) under the eight different levels of information about probability. The Extended Laplace criterion, which uses a second order maximum entropy principle, performed best overall.

Precise Calculation of a Bond Percolation Transition and Survival Rates of Nodes in a Complex Network

PubMed Central

Kawamoto, Hirokazu; Takayasu, Hideki; Jensen, Henrik Jeldtoft; Takayasu, Misako

2015-01-01

Through precise numerical analysis, we reveal a new type of universal loopless percolation transition in randomly removed complex networks. As an example of a real-world network, we apply our analysis to a business relation network consisting of approximately 3,000,000 links among 300,000 firms and observe the transition with critical exponents close to the mean-field values taking into account the finite size effect. We focus on the largest cluster at the critical point, and introduce survival probability as a new measure characterizing the robustness of each node. We also discuss the relation between survival probability and k-shell decomposition. PMID:25885791

Decision Modeling in Sleep Apnea: The Critical Roles of Pretest Probability, Cost of Untreated Obstructive Sleep Apnea, and Time Horizon.

PubMed

Moro, Marilyn; Westover, M Brandon; Kelly, Jessica; Bianchi, Matt T

2016-03-01

Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is associated with increased morbidity and mortality, and treatment with positive airway pressure (PAP) is cost-effective. However, the optimal diagnostic strategy remains a subject of debate. Prior modeling studies have not consistently supported the widely held assumption that home sleep testing (HST) is cost-effective. We modeled four strategies: (1) treat no one; (2) treat everyone empirically; (3) treat those testing positive during in-laboratory polysomnography (PSG) via in-laboratory titration; and (4) treat those testing positive during HST with auto-PAP. The population was assumed to lack independent reasons for in-laboratory PSG (such as insomnia, periodic limb movements in sleep, complex apnea). We considered the third-party payer perspective, via both standard (quality-adjusted) and pure cost methods. The preferred strategy depended on three key factors: pretest probability of OSA, cost of untreated OSA, and time horizon. At low prevalence and low cost of untreated OSA, the treat no one strategy was favored, whereas empiric treatment was favored for high prevalence and high cost of untreated OSA. In-laboratory backup for failures in the at-home strategy increased the preference for the at-home strategy. Without laboratory backup in the at-home arm, the in-laboratory strategy was increasingly preferred at longer time horizons. Using a model framework that captures a broad range of clinical possibilities, the optimal diagnostic approach to uncomplicated OSA depends on pretest probability, cost of untreated OSA, and time horizon. Estimating each of these critical factors remains a challenge warranting further investigation. © 2016 American Academy of Sleep Medicine.

COMPARATIVE HABITABILITY OF TRANSITING EXOPLANETS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barnes, Rory; Meadows, Victoria S.; Evans, Nicole, E-mail: rory@astro.washington.edu

2015-12-01

Exoplanet habitability is traditionally assessed by comparing a planet’s semimajor axis to the location of its host star’s “habitable zone,” the shell around a star for which Earth-like planets can possess liquid surface water. The Kepler space telescope has discovered numerous planet candidates near the habitable zone, and many more are expected from missions such as K2, TESS, and PLATO. These candidates often require significant follow-up observations for validation, so prioritizing planets for habitability from transit data has become an important aspect of the search for life in the universe. We propose a method to compare transiting planets for theirmore » potential to support life based on transit data, stellar properties and previously reported limits on planetary emitted flux. For a planet in radiative equilibrium, the emitted flux increases with eccentricity, but decreases with albedo. As these parameters are often unconstrained, there is an “eccentricity-albedo degeneracy” for the habitability of transiting exoplanets. Our method mitigates this degeneracy, includes a penalty for large-radius planets, uses terrestrial mass–radius relationships, and, when available, constraints on eccentricity to compute a number we call the “habitability index for transiting exoplanets” that represents the relative probability that an exoplanet could support liquid surface water. We calculate it for Kepler objects of interest and find that planets that receive between 60% and 90% of the Earth’s incident radiation, assuming circular orbits, are most likely to be habitable. Finally, we make predictions for the upcoming TESS and James Webb Space Telescope missions.« less

Estimating migratory connectivity of birds when re-encounter probabilities are heterogeneous

PubMed Central

Cohen, Emily B; Hostetler, Jeffrey A; Royle, J Andrew; Marra, Peter P

2014-01-01

Understanding the biology and conducting effective conservation of migratory species requires an understanding of migratory connectivity – the geographic linkages of populations between stages of the annual cycle. Unfortunately, for most species, we are lacking such information. The North American Bird Banding Laboratory (BBL) houses an extensive database of marking, recaptures and recoveries, and such data could provide migratory connectivity information for many species. To date, however, few species have been analyzed for migratory connectivity largely because heterogeneous re-encounter probabilities make interpretation problematic. We accounted for regional variation in re-encounter probabilities by borrowing information across species and by using effort covariates on recapture and recovery probabilities in a multistate capture–recapture and recovery model. The effort covariates were derived from recaptures and recoveries of species within the same regions. We estimated the migratory connectivity for three tern species breeding in North America and over-wintering in the tropics, common (Sterna hirundo), roseate (Sterna dougallii), and Caspian terns (Hydroprogne caspia). For western breeding terns, model-derived estimates of migratory connectivity differed considerably from those derived directly from the proportions of re-encounters. Conversely, for eastern breeding terns, estimates were merely refined by the inclusion of re-encounter probabilities. In general, eastern breeding terns were strongly connected to eastern South America, and western breeding terns were strongly linked to the more western parts of the nonbreeding range under both models. Through simulation, we found this approach is likely useful for many species in the BBL database, although precision improved with higher re-encounter probabilities and stronger migratory connectivity. We describe an approach to deal with the inherent biases in BBL banding and re-encounter data to demonstrate

Estimating migratory connectivity of birds when re-encounter probabilities are heterogeneous

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cohen, Emily B.; Hostelter, Jeffrey A.; Royle, J. Andrew; Marra, Peter P.

2014-01-01

Understanding the biology and conducting effective conservation of migratory species requires an understanding of migratory connectivity – the geographic linkages of populations between stages of the annual cycle. Unfortunately, for most species, we are lacking such information. The North American Bird Banding Laboratory (BBL) houses an extensive database of marking, recaptures and recoveries, and such data could provide migratory connectivity information for many species. To date, however, few species have been analyzed for migratory connectivity largely because heterogeneous re-encounter probabilities make interpretation problematic. We accounted for regional variation in re-encounter probabilities by borrowing information across species and by using effort covariates on recapture and recovery probabilities in a multistate capture–recapture and recovery model. The effort covariates were derived from recaptures and recoveries of species within the same regions. We estimated the migratory connectivity for three tern species breeding in North America and over-wintering in the tropics, common (Sterna hirundo), roseate (Sterna dougallii), and Caspian terns (Hydroprogne caspia). For western breeding terns, model-derived estimates of migratory connectivity differed considerably from those derived directly from the proportions of re-encounters. Conversely, for eastern breeding terns, estimates were merely refined by the inclusion of re-encounter probabilities. In general, eastern breeding terns were strongly connected to eastern South America, and western breeding terns were strongly linked to the more western parts of the nonbreeding range under both models. Through simulation, we found this approach is likely useful for many species in the BBL database, although precision improved with higher re-encounter probabilities and stronger migratory connectivity. We describe an approach to deal with the inherent biases in BBL banding and re-encounter data to demonstrate

Evaluation of drought using SPEI drought class transitions and log-linear models for different agro-ecological regions of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alam, N. M.; Sharma, G. C.; Moreira, Elsa; Jana, C.; Mishra, P. K.; Sharma, N. K.; Mandal, D.

2017-08-01

Markov chain and 3-dimensional log-linear models were attempted to model drought class transitions derived from the newly developed drought index the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at a 12 month time scale for six major drought prone areas of India. Log-linear modelling approach has been used to investigate differences relative to drought class transitions using SPEI-12 time series derived form 48 yeas monthly rainfall and temperature data. In this study, the probabilities of drought class transition, the mean residence time, the 1, 2 or 3 months ahead prediction of average transition time between drought classes and the drought severity class have been derived. Seasonality of precipitation has been derived for non-homogeneous Markov chains which could be used to explain the effect of the potential retreat of drought. Quasi-association and Quasi-symmetry log-linear models have been fitted to the drought class transitions derived from SPEI-12 time series. The estimates of odds along with their confidence intervals were obtained to explain the progression of drought and estimation of drought class transition probabilities. For initial months as the drought severity increases the calculated odds shows lower value and the odds decreases for the succeeding months. This indicates that the ratio of expected frequencies of occurrence of transition from drought class to the non-drought class decreases as compared to transition to any drought class when the drought severity of the present class increases. From 3-dimensional log-linear model it is clear that during the last 24 years the drought probability has increased for almost all the six regions. The findings from the present study will immensely help to assess the impact of drought on the gross primary production and to develop future contingent planning in similar regions worldwide.

Two-Photon Transitions in Hydrogen-Like Atoms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martinis, Mladen; Stojić, Marko

Different methods for evaluating two-photon transition amplitudes in hydrogen-like atoms are compared with the improved method of direct summation. Three separate contributions to the two-photon transition probabilities in hydrogen-like atoms are calculated. The first one coming from the summation over discrete intermediate states is performed up to nc(max) = 35. The second contribution from the integration over the continuum states is performed numerically. The third contribution coming from the summation from nc(max) to infinity is calculated in an approximate way using the mean level energy for this region. It is found that the choice of nc(max) controls the numerical error in the calculations and can be used to increase the accuracy of the results much more efficiently than in other methods.

Transitioning Science and Technology into Acquisition Programs: Assessing One Government Laboratorys Processes

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-12-01

Accountability Office reports and recommendations, and ARDEC and the program managers established processes. The research indicated that the...Record. This examination was a direct review and comparison of Department of Defense policies, U.S. Government Accountability Office reports and...Government Accountability Office I&TT Innovation and Technology Transition IPT Integrated Product Team JCIDS Joint Capabilities Integration

Excluding joint probabilities from quantum theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allahverdyan, Armen E.; Danageozian, Arshag

2018-03-01

Quantum theory does not provide a unique definition for the joint probability of two noncommuting observables, which is the next important question after the Born's probability for a single observable. Instead, various definitions were suggested, e.g., via quasiprobabilities or via hidden-variable theories. After reviewing open issues of the joint probability, we relate it to quantum imprecise probabilities, which are noncontextual and are consistent with all constraints expected from a quantum probability. We study two noncommuting observables in a two-dimensional Hilbert space and show that there is no precise joint probability that applies for any quantum state and is consistent with imprecise probabilities. This contrasts with theorems by Bell and Kochen-Specker that exclude joint probabilities for more than two noncommuting observables, in Hilbert space with dimension larger than two. If measurement contexts are included into the definition, joint probabilities are not excluded anymore, but they are still constrained by imprecise probabilities.

Numerical detection of the Gardner transition in a mean-field glass former.

PubMed

Charbonneau, Patrick; Jin, Yuliang; Parisi, Giorgio; Rainone, Corrado; Seoane, Beatriz; Zamponi, Francesco

2015-07-01

Recent theoretical advances predict the existence, deep into the glass phase, of a novel phase transition, the so-called Gardner transition. This transition is associated with the emergence of a complex free energy landscape composed of many marginally stable sub-basins within a glass metabasin. In this study, we explore several methods to detect numerically the Gardner transition in a simple structural glass former, the infinite-range Mari-Kurchan model. The transition point is robustly located from three independent approaches: (i) the divergence of the characteristic relaxation time, (ii) the divergence of the caging susceptibility, and (iii) the abnormal tail in the probability distribution function of cage order parameters. We show that the numerical results are fully consistent with the theoretical expectation. The methods we propose may also be generalized to more realistic numerical models as well as to experimental systems.

Environmental DNA (eDNA) Detection Probability Is Influenced by Seasonal Activity of Organisms

PubMed Central

de Souza, Lesley S.; Godwin, James C.; Renshaw, Mark A.; Larson, Eric

2016-01-01

Environmental DNA (eDNA) holds great promise for conservation applications like the monitoring of invasive or imperiled species, yet this emerging technique requires ongoing testing in order to determine the contexts over which it is effective. For example, little research to date has evaluated how seasonality of organism behavior or activity may influence detection probability of eDNA. We applied eDNA to survey for two highly imperiled species endemic to the upper Black Warrior River basin in Alabama, US: the Black Warrior Waterdog (Necturus alabamensis) and the Flattened Musk Turtle (Sternotherus depressus). Importantly, these species have contrasting patterns of seasonal activity, with N. alabamensis more active in the cool season (October-April) and S. depressus more active in the warm season (May-September). We surveyed sites historically occupied by these species across cool and warm seasons over two years with replicated eDNA water samples, which were analyzed in the laboratory using species-specific quantitative PCR (qPCR) assays. We then used occupancy estimation with detection probability modeling to evaluate both the effects of landscape attributes on organism presence and season of sampling on detection probability of eDNA. Importantly, we found that season strongly affected eDNA detection probability for both species, with N. alabamensis having higher eDNA detection probabilities during the cool season and S. depressus have higher eDNA detection probabilities during the warm season. These results illustrate the influence of organismal behavior or activity on eDNA detection in the environment and identify an important role for basic natural history in designing eDNA monitoring programs. PMID:27776150

Center for Modeling of Turbulence and Transition (CMOTT): Research Briefs, 1992

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liou, William W. (Editor)

1992-01-01

The progress is reported of the Center for Modeling of Turbulence and Transition (CMOTT). The main objective of the CMOTT is to develop, validate and implement the turbulence and transition models for practical engineering flows. The flows of interest are three-dimensional, incompressible and compressible flows with chemical reaction. The research covers two-equation (e.g., k-e) and algebraic Reynolds-stress models, second moment closure models, probability density function (pdf) models, Renormalization Group Theory (RNG), Large Eddy Simulation (LES) and Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS).

Subjective Probabilities in Household Surveys

PubMed Central

Hurd, Michael D.

2011-01-01

Subjective probabilities are now collected on a number of large household surveys with the objective of providing data to better understand inter-temporal decision making. Comparison of subjective probabilities with actual outcomes shows that the probabilities have considerable predictive power in situations where individuals have considerable private information such as survival and retirement. In contrast the subjective probability of a stock market gain varies greatly across individuals even though no one has private information and the outcome is the same for everyone. An explanation is that there is considerable variation in accessing and processing information. Further, the subjective probability of a stock market gain is considerably lower than historical averages, providing an explanation for the relatively low frequency of stock holding. An important research objective will be to understand how individuals form their subjective probabilities. PMID:21643535

Probability concepts in quality risk management.

PubMed

Claycamp, H Gregg

2012-01-01

Essentially any concept of risk is built on fundamental concepts of chance, likelihood, or probability. Although risk is generally a probability of loss of something of value, given that a risk-generating event will occur or has occurred, it is ironic that the quality risk management literature and guidelines on quality risk management tools are relatively silent on the meaning and uses of "probability." The probability concept is typically applied by risk managers as a combination of frequency-based calculation and a "degree of belief" meaning of probability. Probability as a concept that is crucial for understanding and managing risk is discussed through examples from the most general, scenario-defining and ranking tools that use probability implicitly to more specific probabilistic tools in risk management. A rich history of probability in risk management applied to other fields suggests that high-quality risk management decisions benefit from the implementation of more thoughtful probability concepts in both risk modeling and risk management. Essentially any concept of risk is built on fundamental concepts of chance, likelihood, or probability. Although "risk" generally describes a probability of loss of something of value, given that a risk-generating event will occur or has occurred, it is ironic that the quality risk management literature and guidelines on quality risk management methodologies and respective tools focus on managing severity but are relatively silent on the in-depth meaning and uses of "probability." Pharmaceutical manufacturers are expanding their use of quality risk management to identify and manage risks to the patient that might occur in phases of the pharmaceutical life cycle from drug development to manufacture, marketing to product discontinuation. A probability concept is typically applied by risk managers as a combination of data-based measures of probability and a subjective "degree of belief" meaning of probability. Probability as

Efficient Probability of Failure Calculations for QMU using Computational Geometry LDRD 13-0144 Final Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mitchell, Scott A.; Ebeida, Mohamed Salah; Romero, Vicente J.

2015-09-01

This SAND report summarizes our work on the Sandia National Laboratory LDRD project titled "Efficient Probability of Failure Calculations for QMU using Computational Geometry" which was project #165617 and proposal #13-0144. This report merely summarizes our work. Those interested in the technical details are encouraged to read the full published results, and contact the report authors for the status of the software and follow-on projects.

The perception of probability.

PubMed

Gallistel, C R; Krishan, Monika; Liu, Ye; Miller, Reilly; Latham, Peter E

2014-01-01

We present a computational model to explain the results from experiments in which subjects estimate the hidden probability parameter of a stepwise nonstationary Bernoulli process outcome by outcome. The model captures the following results qualitatively and quantitatively, with only 2 free parameters: (a) Subjects do not update their estimate after each outcome; they step from one estimate to another at irregular intervals. (b) The joint distribution of step widths and heights cannot be explained on the assumption that a threshold amount of change must be exceeded in order for them to indicate a change in their perception. (c) The mapping of observed probability to the median perceived probability is the identity function over the full range of probabilities. (d) Precision (how close estimates are to the best possible estimate) is good and constant over the full range. (e) Subjects quickly detect substantial changes in the hidden probability parameter. (f) The perceived probability sometimes changes dramatically from one observation to the next. (g) Subjects sometimes have second thoughts about a previous change perception, after observing further outcomes. (h) The frequency with which they perceive changes moves in the direction of the true frequency over sessions. (Explaining this finding requires 2 additional parametric assumptions.) The model treats the perception of the current probability as a by-product of the construction of a compact encoding of the experienced sequence in terms of its change points. It illustrates the why and the how of intermittent Bayesian belief updating and retrospective revision in simple perception. It suggests a reinterpretation of findings in the recent literature on the neurobiology of decision making. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved).

Transition to parenthood: the role of social interaction and endogenous networks.

PubMed

Diaz, Belinda Aparicio; Fent, Thomas; Prskawetz, Alexia; Bernardi, Laura

2011-05-01

Empirical studies indicate that the transition to parenthood is influenced by an individual's peer group. To study the mechanisms creating interdependencies across individuals' transition to parenthood and its timing, we apply an agent-based simulation model. We build a one-sex model and provide agents with three different characteristics: age, intended education, and parity. Agents endogenously form their network based on social closeness. Network members may then influence the agents' transition to higher parity levels. Our numerical simulations indicate that accounting for social interactions can explain the shift of first-birth probabilities in Austria during the period 1984 to 2004. Moreover, we apply our model to forecast age-specific fertility rates up to 2016.

Quantum transition and decoherence of levitating polaron on helium film thickness under an electromagnetic field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kenfack, S. C.; Fotue, A. J.; Fobasso, M. F. C.; Djomou, J.-R. D.; Tiotsop, M.; Ngouana, K. S. L.; Fai, L. C.

2017-12-01

We have studied the transition probability and decoherence time of levitating polaron in helium film thickness. By using a variational method of Pekar type, the ground and the first excited states of polaron are calculated above the liquid-helium film placed on the polar substrate. It is shown that the polaron transits from the ground to the excited state in the presence of an external electromagnetic field in the plane. We have seen that, in the helium film, the effects of the magnetic and electric fields on the polaron are opposite. It is also shown that the energy, transition probability and decoherence time of the polaron depend sensitively on the helium film thickness. We found that decoherence time decreases as a function of increasing electron-phonon coupling strength and the helium film thickness. It is seen that the film thickness can be considered as a new confinement in our system and can be adjusted in order to reduce decoherence.

Laboratory and Astronomical Detection of the Negative Molecular Ion C3N-

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thaddeus, P.; Gottlieb, C. A.; Gupta, H.; Brünken, S.; McCarthy, M. C.; Agúndez, M.; Guélin, M.; Cernicharo, J.

2008-04-01

The negative molecular ion C3N- has been detected at millimeter wavelengths in a low-pressure laboratory discharge, and then with frequencies derived from the laboratory data in the molecular envelope of IRC+10216. Spectroscopic constants derived from laboratory measurements of 12 transitions between 97 and 378 GHz allow the rotational spectrum to be calculated well into the submillimeter-wave band to 0.03 km s-1 or better in equivalent radial velocity. Four transitions of C3N- were detected in IRC+10216 with the IRAM 30 m telescope at precisely the frequencies calculated from the laboratory measurements. The column density of C3N- is 0.5% that of C3N, or approximately 20 times greater than that of C4H- relative to C4H. The C3N- abundance in IRC+10216 is compared with a chemical model calculation by Petrie & Herbst. An upper limit in TMC-1 for C3N- relative to C3N (<0.8%) and a limit for C4H- relative to C4H (<0.004%) that is 5 times lower than that found in IRC+10216, were obtained from observations with the NRAO 100 m Green Bank Telescope (GBT). The fairly high concentration of C3N- achieved in the laboratory implies that other molecular anions containing the CN group may be within reach.

ETR, TRA642. ETR COMPLEX NEARLY COMPLETE. CAMERA FACES NORTHWEST, PROBABLY ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

ETR, TRA-642. ETR COMPLEX NEARLY COMPLETE. CAMERA FACES NORTHWEST, PROBABLY FROM TOP DECK OF COOLING TOWER. SHADOW IS CAST BY COOLING TOWER UNITS OFF LEFT OF VIEW. HIGH-BAY REACTOR BUILDING IS SURROUNDED BY ITS ATTACHED SERVICES: ELECTRICAL (TRA-648), HEAT EXCHANGER (TRA-644 WITH U-SHAPED YARD), AND COMPRESSOR (TRA-643). THE CONTROL BUILDING (TRA-647) ON THE NORTH SIDE IS HIDDEN FROM VIEW. AT UPPER RIGHT IS MTR BUILDING, TRA-603. INL NEGATIVE NO. 56-3798. Jack L. Anderson, Photographer, 11/26/1956 - Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, Test Reactor Area, Materials & Engineering Test Reactors, Scoville, Butte County, ID

Equation of motion approach for describing allowed transitions in Ne and Al3+ under classical and quantum plasmas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaudhuri, Supriya K.; Mukherjee, Prasanta K.; Chaudhuri, Rajat K.; Chattopadhyay, Sudip

2018-04-01

The equation of motion coupled cluster methodology within relativistic framework has been applied to analyze the electron correlation effects on the low lying dipole allowed excited states of Ne and Al3+ under classical and quantum plasma environments. The effect of confinement due to classical plasma has been incorporated through screened Coulomb potential, while that of quantum plasma has been treated by exponential cosine screened Coulomb potential. The confined structural properties investigated are the depression of ionization potential, low lying excitation energies (dipole allowed), oscillator strengths, transition probabilities, and frequency dependent polarizabilities under systematic variation of the plasma-atom coupling strength determined through the screening parameter. Specific atomic systems are chosen for their astrophysical importance and availability of experimental data related to laboratory plasma with special reference to Al3+ ion. Here, we consider 1 s22 s22 p6(1S0)→1 s22 s22 p5 n s /n d (1P1) (n =3 ,4 ) dipole allowed transitions of Ne and Al3+. Results for the free (isolated) atomic systems agree well with those available in the literature. Spectroscopic properties under confinement show systematic and interesting pattern with respect to plasma screening parameter.

Psychophysics of the probability weighting function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takahashi, Taiki

2011-03-01

A probability weighting function w(p) for an objective probability p in decision under risk plays a pivotal role in Kahneman-Tversky prospect theory. Although recent studies in econophysics and neuroeconomics widely utilized probability weighting functions, psychophysical foundations of the probability weighting functions have been unknown. Notably, a behavioral economist Prelec (1998) [4] axiomatically derived the probability weighting function w(p)=exp(-() (0<α<1 and w(0)=1,w(1e)=1e,w(1)=1), which has extensively been studied in behavioral neuroeconomics. The present study utilizes psychophysical theory to derive Prelec's probability weighting function from psychophysical laws of perceived waiting time in probabilistic choices. Also, the relations between the parameters in the probability weighting function and the probability discounting function in behavioral psychology are derived. Future directions in the application of the psychophysical theory of the probability weighting function in econophysics and neuroeconomics are discussed.

A relic of the Wellcome Tropical Research Laboratories in Khartoum (1903-34).

PubMed

Adeel, Ahmed Awad

2016-01-01

This article explores the origins of an old brass monocular microscope in the Central Laboratory in Khartoum, which used to be the Wellcome Tropical Research Laboratory in Khartoum (1903-1934). Examination of the microscope and review of published literature gave clues to the historical background of this microscope. Identical microscopes were first manufactured by R and J Beck in 1898, and continued to be advertised in 1899. The microscope was probably among the instruments provided by Wellcome for the initial establishment of the laboratories in 1902-1903. The article includes a brief review of the development of light microscopy. The need for preservation and proper restoration of old relics of the Wellcome laboratories in Khartoum is emphasized.

Radionuclide esophageal transit: an evaluation of therapy in achalasia

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McKinney, M.K.; Brady, C.E.; Weiland, F.L.

1983-09-01

We measured quantitative esophageal transit, expressed as percentage of esophageal retention, before and after pneumatic dilatation in two patients with achalasia. In the sitting position they ingested a 500 ml liquid meal containing 500 muCi technetium Tc 99m sulfur colloid. Radioactivity counts of the entire esophagus were plotted at five-minute intervals for 30 minutes. In five normal control subjects the esophagus essentially cleared in less than one minute. Both patients with achalasia had definite retention 30 minutes before dilatation and had quantitative improvement after dilatation. Radionuclide scintigraphic esophageal transit probably correlates better than other parameters with the physiologic degree ofmore » obstruction in achalasia.« less

Engines and Innovation: Lewis Laboratory and American Propulsion Technology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dawson, Virginia Parker

1991-01-01

This book is an institutional history of the NASA Lewis Research Center, located in Cleveland, Ohio, from 1940, when Congress authorized funding for a third laboratory for the National Advisory Committee for Aeronautics, through the 1980s. The history of the laboratory is discussed in relation to the development of American propulsion technology, with particular focus on the transition in the 1940s from the use of piston engines in airplanes to jet propulsion and that from air-breathing engines to rocket technology when the National Aeronautics and Space Administration was established in 1958. The personalities and research philosophies of the people who shaped the history of the laboratory are discussed, as is the relationship of Lewis Research Center to the Case Institute of Technology.

BIODEGRADATION PROBABILITY PROGRAM (BIODEG)

EPA Science Inventory

The Biodegradation Probability Program (BIODEG) calculates the probability that a chemical under aerobic conditions with mixed cultures of microorganisms will biodegrade rapidly or slowly. It uses fragment constants developed using multiple linear and non-linear regressions and d...

Trajectory description of the quantum–classical transition for wave packet interference

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chou, Chia-Chun, E-mail: ccchou@mx.nthu.edu.tw

2016-08-15

The quantum–classical transition for wave packet interference is investigated using a hydrodynamic description. A nonlinear quantum–classical transition equation is obtained by introducing a degree of quantumness ranging from zero to one into the classical time-dependent Schrödinger equation. This equation provides a continuous description for the transition process of physical systems from purely quantum to purely classical regimes. In this study, the transition trajectory formalism is developed to provide a hydrodynamic description for the quantum–classical transition. The flow momentum of transition trajectories is defined by the gradient of the action function in the transition wave function and these trajectories follow themore » main features of the evolving probability density. Then, the transition trajectory formalism is employed to analyze the quantum–classical transition of wave packet interference. For the collision-like wave packet interference where the propagation velocity is faster than the spreading speed of the wave packet, the interference process remains collision-like for all the degree of quantumness. However, the interference features demonstrated by transition trajectories gradually disappear when the degree of quantumness approaches zero. For the diffraction-like wave packet interference, the interference process changes continuously from a diffraction-like to collision-like case when the degree of quantumness gradually decreases. This study provides an insightful trajectory interpretation for the quantum–classical transition of wave packet interference.« less

[The laboratory of tomorrow. Particular reference to hematology].

PubMed

Cazal, P

1985-01-01

A serious prediction can only be an extrapolation of recent developments. To be exact, the development has to continue in the same direction, which is only a probability. Probable development of hematological technology: Progress in methods. Development of new labelling methods: radio-elements, antibodies. Monoclonal antibodies. Progress in equipment: Cell counters and their adaptation to routine hemograms is a certainty. From analyzers: a promise that will perhaps become reality. Coagulometers: progress still to be made. Hemagglutination detectors and their application to grouping: good achievements, but the market is too limited. Computerization and automation: What form will the computerizing take? What will the computer do? Who will the computer control? What should the automatic analyzers be? Two current levels. Relationships between the automatic analysers and the computer. rapidity, fidelity and above all, reliability. Memory: large capacity and easy access. Disadvantages: conservatism and technical dependency. How can they be avoided? Development of the environment: Laboratory input: outside supplies, electricity, reagents, consumables. Samples and their identification. Output: distribution of results and communication problems. Centralization or decentralization? What will tomorrow's laboratory be? 3 hypotheses: optimistic, pessimistic, and balanced.

Definition of the Neutrosophic Probability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smarandache, Florentin

2014-03-01

Neutrosophic probability (or likelihood) [1995] is a particular case of the neutrosophic measure. It is an estimation of an event (different from indeterminacy) to occur, together with an estimation that some indeterminacy may occur, and the estimation that the event does not occur. The classical probability deals with fair dice, coins, roulettes, spinners, decks of cards, random works, while neutrosophic probability deals with unfair, imperfect such objects and processes. For example, if we toss a regular die on an irregular surface which has cracks, then it is possible to get the die stuck on one of its edges or vertices in a crack (indeterminate outcome). The sample space is in this case: {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, indeterminacy}. So, the probability of getting, for example 1, is less than 1/6. Since there are seven outcomes. The neutrosophic probability is a generalization of the classical probability because, when the chance of determinacy of a stochastic process is zero, these two probabilities coincide. The Neutrosophic Probability that of an event A occurs is NP (A) = (ch (A) , ch (indetA) , ch (A ̲)) = (T , I , F) , where T , I , F are subsets of [0,1], and T is the chance that A occurs, denoted ch(A); I is the indeterminate chance related to A, ch(indetermA) ; and F is the chance that A does not occur, ch (A ̲) . So, NP is a generalization of the Imprecise Probability as well. If T, I, and F are crisp numbers then: - 0 <= T + I + F <=3+ . We used the same notations (T,I,F) as in neutrosophic logic and set.

Failure probability under parameter uncertainty.

PubMed

Gerrard, R; Tsanakas, A

2011-05-01

In many problems of risk analysis, failure is equivalent to the event of a random risk factor exceeding a given threshold. Failure probabilities can be controlled if a decisionmaker is able to set the threshold at an appropriate level. This abstract situation applies, for example, to environmental risks with infrastructure controls; to supply chain risks with inventory controls; and to insurance solvency risks with capital controls. However, uncertainty around the distribution of the risk factor implies that parameter error will be present and the measures taken to control failure probabilities may not be effective. We show that parameter uncertainty increases the probability (understood as expected frequency) of failures. For a large class of loss distributions, arising from increasing transformations of location-scale families (including the log-normal, Weibull, and Pareto distributions), the article shows that failure probabilities can be exactly calculated, as they are independent of the true (but unknown) parameters. Hence it is possible to obtain an explicit measure of the effect of parameter uncertainty on failure probability. Failure probability can be controlled in two different ways: (1) by reducing the nominal required failure probability, depending on the size of the available data set, and (2) by modifying of the distribution itself that is used to calculate the risk control. Approach (1) corresponds to a frequentist/regulatory view of probability, while approach (2) is consistent with a Bayesian/personalistic view. We furthermore show that the two approaches are consistent in achieving the required failure probability. Finally, we briefly discuss the effects of data pooling and its systemic risk implications. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

Childhood friends who smoke: do they influence adolescents to make smoking transitions?

PubMed

Bricker, Jonathan B; Peterson, Arthur V; Andersen, M Robyn; Rajan, K Bharat; Leroux, Brian G; Sarason, Irwin G

2006-05-01

This study investigated longitudinally the extent to which childhood friends who smoke influence adolescents' smoking transitions, and compared that influence with that of parents who smoke. In a sample of 4744 children, results showed that the probability, per close friend, that a smoking close friend influenced the adolescent to make the first transition to trying smoking was 38% (95% CI: 28%, 46%); to make the second transition from trying to monthly smoking, 10% (95% CI: 5%, 15%); and to make the third transition from monthly to daily smoking, 11% (95% CI: 5%, 17%). Compared to parents' smoking, close friends' smoking was 12% (p=0.03) more influential for the first transition, no different for the second transition (p=0.53), and 16% (p=0.01) less influential for the third transition. Results provide new evidence suggesting that childhood close friends who smoke influence not only initiation but also escalation of adolescents' smoking. Results also confirmed the important role of parents' smoking. Targeting both childhood close friends' and parents' smoking would be valuable in prevention research.

Introduction to symposium on unmeasured heterogeneity in school transition models.

PubMed

Mare, Robert D

2011-09-01

Researchers have used models of school transitions for over 30 years to describe inequality of educational opportunity and have contributed a number of important refinements and extensions. School transition models have the complication that the estimated effects of family background on the probability of continuing in school are affected by differential attrition on unobserved factors at earlier stages of schooling. The articles in this symposium present a variety of useful approaches to unobserved heterogeneity in school transition models. Investigators who use these approaches should attend to several issues: (1) models for school transitions may be used both descriptively (and are not therefore subject to any well-defined "bias") and as tools for causal inference. (2) The concept of bias presupposes an underlying experiment, structural model, or population model that would, in principle, define the corresponding unbiased parameters - yet these underlying models are difficult to specify for school transition models. (3) Unobserved determinants of whether individuals make school transitions may be both exogenous and endogenous with respect to the observed regressors in the model. Without a model of how unobserved heterogeneity arises, attempted "corrections" for unmeasured heterogeneity may yield misleading estimates of the effects of measured determinants of school continuation.

Transitioning EEG experiments away from the laboratory using a Raspberry Pi 2.

PubMed

Kuziek, Jonathan W P; Shienh, Axita; Mathewson, Kyle E

2017-02-01

Electroencephalography (EEG) experiments are typically performed in controlled laboratory settings to minimise noise and produce reliable measurements. These controlled conditions also reduce the applicability of the obtained results to more varied environments and may limit their relevance to everyday situations. Advances in computer portability may increase the mobility and applicability of EEG results while decreasing costs. In this experiment we show that stimulus presentation using a Raspberry Pi 2 computer provides a low cost, reliable alternative to a traditional desktop PC in the administration of EEG experimental tasks. Significant and reliable MMN and P3 activity, typical event-related potentials (ERPs) associated with an auditory oddball paradigm, were measured while experiments were administered using the Raspberry Pi 2. While latency differences in ERP triggering were observed between systems, these differences reduced power only marginally, likely due to the reduced processing power of the Raspberry Pi 2. An auditory oddball task administered using the Raspberry Pi 2 produced similar ERPs to those derived from a desktop PC in a laboratory setting. Despite temporal differences and slight increases in trials needed for similar statistical power, the Raspberry Pi 2 can be used to design and present auditory experiments comparable to a PC. Our results show that the Raspberry Pi 2 is a low cost alternative to the desktop PC when administering EEG experiments and, due to its small size and low power consumption, will enable mobile EEG experiments unconstrained by a traditional laboratory setting. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Benguela upwelling response during intervals of global climate transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shrivastava, Ankush; Sinha, Devesh; Singh, Ashutosh; Ramesh, Rengaswamy

2017-04-01

In the present study sedimentary records from the southeast Atlantic ocean were used for reconstructing the variability of Benguela upwelling system as well as the Interoceanic exchange between Indian and Atlantic Oceans during the critical intervals. Planktic foraminiferal assemblage data revealed diminished upwelling in the Benguela upwelling region during the Pliocene warm interval (3.7-3 Ma) which is in contrast to the model reconstructions by Wang et al., 2015 proposing intensification of upwelling with projected future warming. Gradual intensification of Benguela upwelling was interpreted during the Pliocene - Pleistocene transition (3-2.5 Ma). Enhanced Benguela upwelling during the Northern Hemisphere Glaciation supposed to have played a major role in the drawdown of atmospheric carbon dioxide after Pliocene warmth interval (3.7-3 Ma). Enhanced Benguela upwelling also occurred during Mid- Pleistocene transition (1-0.7 Ma). Reduced interoceanic exchange has been identified between Indian and Atlantic ocean during Northern Hemisphere glaciation (2.5- 2 Ma) and Mid-Pleistocene transition (1- 0.7 Ma). Equatorward migration of subtropical fronts during these two intervals was probably responsible for the reduced interoceanic exchange. Keywords: Pliocene-Pleistocene transition, Mid- Pleistocene transition, Benguela upwelling, Interoceanic exchange

E 3 and M 2 transition strengths in Bi20983

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roberts, O. J.; NiÅ£ǎ, C. R.; Bruce, A. M.; Mǎrginean, N.; Bucurescu, D.; Deleanu, D.; Filipescu, D.; Florea, N. M.; Gheorghe, I.; GhiÅ£ǎ, D.; Glodariu, T.; Lica, R.; Mǎrginean, R.; Mihai, C.; Negret, A.; Sava, T.; Stroe, L.; Şuvǎilǎ, R.; Toma, S.; Alharbi, T.; Alexander, T.; Aydin, S.; Brown, B. A.; Browne, F.; Carroll, R. J.; Mulholland, K.; Podolyák, Zs.; Regan, P. H.; Smith, J. F.; Smolen, M.; Townsley, C. M.

2016-01-01

The 1 i13/2→1 h9/2 (M 2 ) and 3 s1/2→2 f7/2 (E 3 ) reduced proton transition probabilities in Bi20983 have been determined from the direct half-life measurements of the 13/21+ and 1/21+ states using the Romanian array for γ -ray SPectroscopy in HEavy ion REactions (RoSPHERE). The 13/21+ and 1/21+ states were found to have T1/2=0.120 (15 ) ns and T1/2=9.02 (24 ) ns respectively. Angular distribution measurements were used to determine an E 3 /M 2 mixing ratio of δ =-0.184 (13 ) for the 1609 keV γ -ray transition deexciting the 13/21+ state. This value for δ was combined with the measured half-life to give reduced transition probabilities of B (E 3 ,13/21+→9/21-) =12 (2 ) ×103 e2fm6 and B (M 2 ,13/21+→9/21-) =38 (5 ) μN2fm2 . These values are in good agreement with calculations within the finite Fermi system. The extracted value of B (E 3 ,1/21+→7/21-) =6.3 (2 ) ×103 e2fm6 can be explained by a small (˜6 % ) admixture in the wave function of the 1/21+ state.

Elastic Backbone Defines a New Transition in the Percolation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sampaio Filho, Cesar I. N.; Andrade, José S.; Herrmann, Hans J.; Moreira, André A.

2018-04-01

The elastic backbone is the set of all shortest paths. We found a new phase transition at peb above the classical percolation threshold at which the elastic backbone becomes dense. At this transition in 2D, its fractal dimension is 1.750 ±0.003 , and one obtains a novel set of critical exponents βeb=0.50 ±0.02 , γeb=1.97 ±0.05 , and νeb=2.00 ±0.02 , fulfilling consistent critical scaling laws. Interestingly, however, the hyperscaling relation is violated. Using Binder's cumulant, we determine, with high precision, the critical probabilities peb for the triangular and tilted square lattice for site and bond percolation. This transition describes a sudden rigidification as a function of density when stretching a damaged tissue.

Three-Dimensional Localized-Delocalized Anderson Transition in the Time Domain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delande, Dominique; Morales-Molina, Luis; Sacha, Krzysztof

2017-12-01

Systems which can spontaneously reveal periodic evolution are dubbed time crystals. This is in analogy with space crystals that display periodic behavior in configuration space. While space crystals are modeled with the help of space periodic potentials, crystalline phenomena in time can be modeled by periodically driven systems. Disorder in the periodic driving can lead to Anderson localization in time: the probability for detecting a system at a fixed point of configuration space becomes exponentially localized around a certain moment in time. We here show that a three-dimensional system exposed to a properly disordered pseudoperiodic driving may display a localized-delocalized Anderson transition in the time domain, in strong analogy with the usual three-dimensional Anderson transition in disordered systems. Such a transition could be experimentally observed with ultracold atomic gases.

Two test level 4 bridge railing and transition systems for transverse timber deck bridges

Treesearch

Ronald K. Faller; Michael A. Ritter; Barry T. Rosson; Michael D. Fowler; Sheila R. Duwadi

2000-01-01

The Midwest Roadside Safety Facility, in cooperation with the Forest Products Laboratory, which is part of the U.S. Department of Agricultureas Forest Service, and FHWA, designed two bridge railing and approach guardrail transition systems for use on bridges with transverse glue-laminated timber decks. The bridge raging and transition systems were developed and crash...

Spirometric variability in smokers: transitions in COPD diagnosis in a five-year longitudinal study.

PubMed

Sood, Akshay; Petersen, Hans; Qualls, Clifford; Meek, Paula M; Vazquez-Guillamet, Rodrigo; Celli, Bartolome R; Tesfaigzi, Yohannes

2016-11-10

Spirometrically-defined chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is considered progressive but its natural history is inadequately studied. We hypothesized that spirometrically-defined COPD states could undergo beneficial transitions. Participants in the Lovelace Smokers' Cohort (n = 1553), primarily women, were longitudinally studied over 5 years. Spirometric states included normal postbronchodilator spirometry, COPD Stage I, Unclassified state, and COPD Stage II+, as defined by GOLD guidelines. Beneficial transitions included either a decrease in disease severity, including resolution of spirometric abnormality, or maintenance of non-diseased state. 'All smokers' (n = 1553) and subgroups with normal and abnormal spirometry at baseline (n = 956 and 597 respectively) were separately analyzed. Markov-like model of transition probabilities over an average follow-up period of 5 years were calculated. Among 'all smokers', COPD Stage I, Unclassified, and COPD Stage II+ states were associated with probabilities of 16, 39, and 22 % respectively for beneficial transitions, and of 16, 35, and 4 % respectively for resolution. Beneficial transitions were more common for new-onset disease than for pre-existing disease (p < 0.001). Beneficial transitions were less common among older smokers, men, or those with bronchial hyperresponsiveness but more common among Hispanics and smokers with excess weight. This observational study of ever smokers, shows that spirometrically-defined COPD states, may not be uniformly progressive and can improve or resolve over time. The implication of these findings is that the spirometric diagnosis of COPD can be unstable. Furthermore, COPD may have a pre-disease state when interventions might help reverse or change its natural history. NA.

Family Structure, Transitions and Psychiatric Disorders Among Puerto Rican Children

PubMed Central

Santesteban-Echarri, Olga; Eisenberg, Ruth E.; Bird, Hector R.; Canino, Glorisa J.; Duarte, Cristiane S.

2016-01-01

This paper examines whether family structure and its transitions are associated with internalizing and externalizing psychiatric disorders among Puerto Rican-origin children. It uses longitudinal data (three waves) from the Boricua Youth Study, which includes probability samples of children in the South Bronx (New York) and San Juan (Puerto Rico) (n = 2,142). We also examine factors which may explain how family structure and transitions may be related to child psychiatric disorders. Our results show that for both internalizing and externalizing disorders there were no significant differences between children of cohabiting (biological or step) parents or of single parents compared to children of married biological parents. In Puerto Rico only, transitioning once from a two-parent family to a single-parent family was related to child internalizing disorders. Family transitions were not associated with externalizing disorders at either site. Context may be an important factor shaping the risk that family dissolution is followed by an internalizing disorder among children. PMID:28713212

Cluster membership probability: polarimetric approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Medhi, Biman J.; Tamura, Motohide

2013-04-01

Interstellar polarimetric data of the six open clusters Hogg 15, NGC 6611, NGC 5606, NGC 6231, NGC 5749 and NGC 6250 have been used to estimate the membership probability for the stars within them. For proper-motion member stars, the membership probability estimated using the polarimetric data is in good agreement with the proper-motion cluster membership probability. However, for proper-motion non-member stars, the membership probability estimated by the polarimetric method is in total disagreement with the proper-motion cluster membership probability. The inconsistencies in the determined memberships may be because of the fundamental differences between the two methods of determination: one is based on stellar proper motion in space and the other is based on selective extinction of the stellar output by the asymmetric aligned dust grains present in the interstellar medium. The results and analysis suggest that the scatter of the Stokes vectors q (per cent) and u (per cent) for the proper-motion member stars depends on the interstellar and intracluster differential reddening in the open cluster. It is found that this method could be used to estimate the cluster membership probability if we have additional polarimetric and photometric information for a star to identify it as a probable member/non-member of a particular cluster, such as the maximum wavelength value (λmax), the unit weight error of the fit (σ1), the dispersion in the polarimetric position angles (overline{ɛ }), reddening (E(B - V)) or the differential intracluster reddening (ΔE(B - V)). This method could also be used to estimate the membership probability of known member stars having no membership probability as well as to resolve disagreements about membership among different proper-motion surveys.

Workload Transition: Implications for Individual and Team Performance

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-01-01

a hrlf second) if they are motivated to do so, and they will choose one strategy or the other on the basis of the probability that it will best serve...Arousal, 106 Conclusion, 107 Mediating Effects, 107 Coping with Stress, 108 DesiZ.n Solutions. 108 Strategies , 109 Training, 109 Team Models: Implications...214 Cognitive Switching, 214 Strategy Switching, 215 Task Switching. 216 Implications for Workload Transition, 219 CONTENTS XV

Perceived Treatment Need and Latent Transitions in Heroin and Methamphetamine Polydrug Use among People who Inject Drugs in Tijuana, Mexico.

PubMed

Meacham, Meredith C; Roesch, Scott C; Strathdee, Steffanie A; Gaines, Tommi L

2018-01-01

People who inject drugs (PWID) in Tijuana, Mexico, use heroin and/or methamphetamine. While polydrug use is associated with HIV risk behavior, less is known about the stability of polydrug use patterns over time and how polydrug use is related to perceived treatment need. Within a cohort of PWID in Tijuana (N = 735) we sought to (1) characterize subgroups of polydrug and polyroute use from baseline to six months; (2) determine the probabilities of transitioning between subgroups; and (3) examine whether self-reported need for help for drug use modified these transition probabilities. Latent transition analysis (LTA) identified four latent statuses: heroin-only injection (38% at both baseline and follow-up); co-injection of heroin with methamphetamine (3% baseline, 15% follow-up); injection of heroin and methamphetamine (37% baseline, 32% follow-up); and polydrug and polyroute users who injected heroin and both smoked and injected methamphetamine (22% baseline, 14% follow-up). Heroin-only injectors had the highest probability of remaining in the same latent status at follow-up. The majority reported great or urgent need for treatment (51%) and these PWID had greater odds of transitioning to a higher-risk status at follow-up, emphasizing the need for evidence-based drug treatment options for PWID.

Laboratory ultrasonic pulse velocity logging for determination of elastic properties from rock core

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blacklock, Natalie Erin

During the development of deep underground excavations spalling and rockbursting have been recognized as significant mechanisms of violent brittle failure. In order to predict whether violent brittle failure will occur, it is important to identify the location of stiffness transitions that are associated with geologic structure. One approach to identify the effect of geologic structures is to apply borehole geophysical tools ahead of the tunnel advance. Stiffness transitions can be identified using mechanical property analysis surveys that combine acoustic velocity and density data to calculate acoustic estimates of elastic moduli. However, logistical concerns arise since the approach must be conducted at the advancing tunnel face. As a result, borehole mechanical property analyses are rarely used. Within this context, laboratory ultrasonic pulse velocity testing has been proposed as a potential alternative to borehole mechanical property analysis since moving the analysis to the laboratory would remove logistical constraints and improve safety for the evaluators. In addition to the traditional method of conducting velocity testing along the core axis, two new methodologies for point-focused testing were developed across the core diameter, and indirectly along intact lengths of drill core. The indirect test procedure was implemented in a continuous ultrasonic velocity test program along 573m of drill core to identify key geologic structures that generated transitions in ultrasonic elastic moduli. The test program was successful at identifying the location of geologic contacts, igneous intrusions, faults and shear structures. Ultrasonic values of Young's modulus and bulk modulus were determined at locations of significant velocity transitions to examine the potential for energy storage and energy release. Comparison of results from different ultrasonic velocity test configurations determined that the indirect test configuration provided underestimates for values of

External validation of the HIT Expert Probability (HEP) score.

PubMed

Joseph, Lee; Gomes, Marcelo P V; Al Solaiman, Firas; St John, Julie; Ozaki, Asuka; Raju, Manjunath; Dhariwal, Manoj; Kim, Esther S H

2015-03-01

The diagnosis of heparin-induced thrombocytopenia (HIT) can be challenging. The HIT Expert Probability (HEP) Score has recently been proposed to aid in the diagnosis of HIT. We sought to externally and prospectively validate the HEP score. We prospectively assessed pre-test probability of HIT for 51 consecutive patients referred to our Consultative Service for evaluation of possible HIT between August 1, 2012 and February 1, 2013. Two Vascular Medicine fellows independently applied the 4T and HEP scores for each patient. Two independent HIT expert adjudicators rendered a diagnosis of HIT likely or unlikely. The median (interquartile range) of 4T and HEP scores were 4.5 (3.0, 6.0) and 5 (3.0, 8.5), respectively. There were no significant differences between area under receiver-operating characteristic curves of 4T and HEP scores against the gold standard, confirmed HIT [defined as positive serotonin release assay and positive anti-PF4/heparin ELISA] (0.74 vs 0.73, p = 0.97). HEP score ≥ 2 was 100 % sensitive and 16 % specific for determining the presence of confirmed HIT while a 4T score > 3 was 93 % sensitive and 35 % specific. In conclusion, the HEP and 4T scores are excellent screening pre-test probability models for HIT, however, in this prospective validation study, test characteristics for the diagnosis of HIT based on confirmatory laboratory testing and expert opinion are similar. Given the complexity of the HEP scoring model compared to that of the 4T score, further validation of the HEP score is warranted prior to widespread clinical acceptance.

Precision and manufacturing at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Saito, Theodore T.; Wasley, Richard J.; Stowers, Irving F.; Donaldson, Robert R.; Thompson, Daniel C.

1994-01-01

Precision Engineering is one of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory's core strengths. This paper discusses the past and present current technology transfer efforts of LLNL's Precision Engineering program and the Livermore Center for Advanced Manufacturing and Productivity (LCAMP). More than a year ago the Precision Machine Commercialization project embodied several successful methods of transferring high technology from the National Laboratories to industry. Currently, LCAMP has already demonstrated successful technology transfer and is involved in a broad spectrum of current programs. In addition, this paper discusses other technologies ripe for future transition including the Large Optics Diamond Turning Machine.

Precision and manufacturing at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saito, Theodore T.; Wasley, Richard J.; Stowers, Irving F.; Donaldson, Robert R.; Thompson, Daniel C.

1994-02-01

Precision Engineering is one of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory's core strengths. This paper discusses the past and present current technology transfer efforts of LLNL's Precision Engineering program and the Livermore Center for Advanced Manufacturing and Productivity (LCAMP). More than a year ago the Precision Machine Commercialization project embodied several successful methods of transferring high technology from the National Laboratories to industry. Currently, LCAMP has already demonstrated successful technology transfer and is involved in a broad spectrum of current programs. In addition, this paper discusses other technologies ripe for future transition including the Large Optics Diamond Turning Machine.

No Magic Bullet: A Theory-Based Meta-Analysis of Markov Transition Probabilities in Studies of Service Systems for Persons With Mental Disabilities.

PubMed

Leff, Hugh Stephen; Chow, Clifton M; Graves, Stephen C

2017-03-01

A random-effects meta-analysis of studies that used Markov transition probabilities (TPs) to describe outcomes for mental health service systems of differing quality for persons with serious mental illness was implemented to improve the scientific understanding of systems performance, to use in planning simulations to project service system costs and outcomes over time, and to test a theory of how outcomes for systems varying in quality differ. Nineteen systems described in 12 studies were coded as basic (B), maintenance (M), and recovery oriented (R) on the basis of descriptions of services provided. TPs for studies were aligned with a common functional-level framework, converted to a one-month time period, synthesized, and compared with theory-based expectations. Meta-regression was employed to explore associations between TPs and characteristics of service recipients and studies. R systems performed better than M and B systems. However, M systems did not perform better than B systems. All systems showed negative as well as positive TPs. For approximately one-third of synthesized TPs, substantial interstudy heterogeneity was noted. Associations were found between TPs and service recipient and study variables Conclusions: Conceptualizing systems as B, M, and R has potential for improving scientific understanding and systems planning. R systems appear more effective than B and M systems, although there is no "magic bullet" system for all service recipients. Interstudy heterogeneity indicates need for common approaches to reporting service recipient states, time periods for TPs, service recipient attributes, and service system characteristics. TPs found should be used in Markov simulations to project system effectiveness and costs of over time.

Transforming a Traditional Laboratory to an Inquiry-Based Course: Importance of Training TAs When Redesigning a Curriculum

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wheeler, Lindsay B.; Clark, Charles P.; Grisham, Charles M.

2017-01-01

Laboratory course redesign and effective implementation of an inquiry-based curriculum can be challenging, particularly when teaching assistants (TAs) are responsible for instruction. Our multiyear redesign of a traditional general chemistry laboratory course has included transitioning to a project based guided inquiry (PBGI) curriculum that…

Effects of ignoring baseline on modeling transitions from intact cognition to dementia.

PubMed

Yu, Lei; Tyas, Suzanne L; Snowdon, David A; Kryscio, Richard J

2009-07-01

This paper evaluates the effect of ignoring baseline when modeling transitions from intact cognition to dementia with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and global impairment (GI) as intervening cognitive states. Transitions among states are modeled by a discrete-time Markov chain having three transient (intact cognition, MCI, and GI) and two competing absorbing states (death and dementia). Transition probabilities depend on two covariates, age and the presence/absence of an apolipoprotein E-epsilon4 allele, through a multinomial logistic model with shared random effects. Results are illustrated with an application to the Nun Study, a cohort of 678 participants 75+ years of age at baseline and followed longitudinally with up to ten cognitive assessments per nun.

Effects of ignoring baseline on modeling transitions from intact cognition to dementia

PubMed Central

Yu, Lei; Tyas, Suzanne L.; Snowdon, David A.; Kryscio, Richard J.

2009-01-01

This paper evaluates the effect of ignoring baseline when modeling transitions from intact cognition to dementia with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and global impairment (GI) as intervening cognitive states. Transitions among states are modeled by a discrete-time Markov chain having three transient (intact cognition, MCI, and GI) and two competing absorbing states (death and dementia). Transition probabilities depend on two covariates, age and the presence/absence of an apolipoprotein E-ε4 allele, through a multinomial logistic model with shared random effects. Results are illustrated with an application to the Nun Study, a cohort of 678 participants 75+ years of age at baseline and followed longitudinally with up to ten cognitive assessments per nun. PMID:20161282

Generic finite size scaling for discontinuous nonequilibrium phase transitions into absorbing states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Oliveira, M. M.; da Luz, M. G. E.; Fiore, C. E.

2015-12-01

Based on quasistationary distribution ideas, a general finite size scaling theory is proposed for discontinuous nonequilibrium phase transitions into absorbing states. Analogously to the equilibrium case, we show that quantities such as response functions, cumulants, and equal area probability distributions all scale with the volume, thus allowing proper estimates for the thermodynamic limit. To illustrate these results, five very distinct lattice models displaying nonequilibrium transitions—to single and infinitely many absorbing states—are investigated. The innate difficulties in analyzing absorbing phase transitions are circumvented through quasistationary simulation methods. Our findings (allied to numerical studies in the literature) strongly point to a unifying discontinuous phase transition scaling behavior for equilibrium and this important class of nonequilibrium systems.

Radiative data for highly excited 3d84d levels in Ni II from laboratory measurements and atomic calculations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartman, H.; Engström, L.; Lundberg, H.; Nilsson, H.; Quinet, P.; Fivet, V.; Palmeri, P.; Malcheva, G.; Blagoev, K.

2017-04-01

Aims: This work reports new experimental radiative lifetimes and calculated oscillator strengths for transitions from 3d84d levels of astrophysical interest in singly ionized nickel. Methods: Radiative lifetimes of seven high-lying levels of even parity in Ni II (98 400-100 600 cm-1) have been measured using the time-resolved laser-induced fluorescence method. Two-step photon excitation of ions produced by laser ablation has been utilized to populate the levels. Theoretical calculations of the radiative lifetimes of the measured levels and transition probabilities from these levels are reported. The calculations have been performed using a pseudo-relativistic Hartree-Fock method, taking into account core polarization effects. Results: A new set of transition probabilities and oscillator strengths has been deduced for 477 Ni II transitions of astrophysical interest in the spectral range 194-520 nm depopulating even parity 3d84d levels. The new calculated gf-values are, on the average, about 20% higher than a previous calculation and yield lifetimes within 5% of the experimental values.

Multiple transitions in sick leave, disability benefits, and return to work. - A 4-year follow-up of patients participating in a work-related rehabilitation program.

PubMed

Oyeflaten, Irene; Lie, Stein Atle; Ihlebæk, Camilla M; Eriksen, Hege R

2012-09-06

Return to work (RTW) after long-term sick leave can be a long-lasting process where the individual may shift between work and receiving different social security benefits, as well as between part-time and full-time work. This is a challenge in the assessment of RTW outcomes after rehabilitation interventions. The aim of this study was to analyse the probability for RTW, and the probabilities of transitions between different benefits during a 4-year follow-up, after participating in a work-related rehabilitation program. The sample consisted of 584 patients (66% females), mean age 44 years (sd = 9.3). Mean duration on various types of sick leave benefits at entry to the rehabilitation program was 9.3 months (sd = 3.4)]. The patients had mental (47%), musculoskeletal (46%), or other diagnoses (7%). Official national register data over a 4-year follow-up period was analysed. Extended statistical tools for multistate models were used to calculate transition probabilities between the following eight states; working, partial sick leave, full-time sick leave, medical rehabilitation, vocational rehabilitation, and disability pension; (partial, permanent and time-limited). During the follow-up there was an increased probability for working, a decreased probability for being on sick leave, and an increased probability for being on disability pension. The probability of RTW was not related to the work and benefit status at departure from the rehabilitation clinic. The patients had an average of 3.7 (range 0-18) transitions between work and the different benefits. The process of RTW or of receiving disability pension was complex, and may take several years, with multiple transitions between work and different benefits. Access to reliable register data and the use of a multistate RTW model, makes it possible to describe the developmental nature and the different levels of the recovery and disability process.

MD modeling of screw dislocation influence upon initiation and mechanism of BCC-HCP polymorphous transition in iron

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dremov, V. V.; Ionov, G. V.; Sapozhnikov, F. A.; Smirnov, N. A.; Karavaev, A. V.; Vorobyova, M. A.; Ryzhkov, M. V.

2015-09-01

The present work is devoted to classical molecular dynamics investigation into microscopic mechanisms of the bcc-hcp transition in iron. The interatomic potential of EAM type used in the calculations was tested for the capability to reproduce ab initio data on energy evolution along the bcc-hcp transformation path (Burgers deformation + shuffe) and then used in the large-scale MD simulations. The large-scale simulations included constant volume deformation along the Burgers path to study the origin and nature of the plasticity, hydrostatic volume compression of defect free samples above the bcc to hcp transition threshold to observe the formation of new phase embryos, and the volume compression of samples containing screw dislocations to study the effect of the dislocations on the probability of the new phase critical embryo formation. The volume compression demonstrated high level of metastability. The transition starts at pressure much higher than the equilibrium one. Dislocations strongly affect the probability of the critical embryo formation and significantly reduce the onset pressure of transition. The dislocations affect also the resulting structure of the samples upon the transition. The formation of layered structure is typical for the samples containing the dislocations. The results of the simulations were compared with the in-situ experimental data on the mechanism of the bcc-hcp transition in iron.

Shuttle Return To Flight Experimental Results: Cavity Effects on Boundary Layer Transition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liechty, Derek S.; Horvath, Thomas J.; Berry, Scott A.

2006-01-01

The effect of an isolated rectangular cavity on hypersonic boundary layer transition of the windward surface of the Shuttle Orbiter has been experimentally examined in the Langley Aerothermodynamics Laboratory in support of an agency-wide effort to prepare the Shuttle Orbiter for return to flight. This experimental study was initiated to provide a cavity effects database for developing hypersonic transition criteria to support on-orbit decisions to repair a damaged thermal protection system. Boundary layer transition results were obtained using 0.0075-scale Orbiter models with simulated tile damage (rectangular cavities) of varying length, width, and depth. The database contained within this report will be used to formulate cavity-induced transition correlations using predicted boundary layer edge parameters.

Localization Transition Induced by Learning in Random Searches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Falcón-Cortés, Andrea; Boyer, Denis; Giuggioli, Luca; Majumdar, Satya N.

2017-10-01

We solve an adaptive search model where a random walker or Lévy flight stochastically resets to previously visited sites on a d -dimensional lattice containing one trapping site. Because of reinforcement, a phase transition occurs when the resetting rate crosses a threshold above which nondiffusive stationary states emerge, localized around the inhomogeneity. The threshold depends on the trapping strength and on the walker's return probability in the memoryless case. The transition belongs to the same class as the self-consistent theory of Anderson localization. These results show that similarly to many living organisms and unlike the well-studied Markovian walks, non-Markov movement processes can allow agents to learn about their environment and promise to bring adaptive solutions in search tasks.

Teachers' Understandings of Probability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Liu, Yan; Thompson, Patrick

2007-01-01

Probability is an important idea with a remarkably wide range of applications. However, psychological and instructional studies conducted in the last two decades have consistently documented poor understanding of probability among different populations across different settings. The purpose of this study is to develop a theoretical framework for…

Best Practices for NPT Transit Matching

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gilligan, Kimberly V.; Whitaker, J. Michael; Oakberg, John A.

2016-09-01

Transit matching is the process for relating or matching reports of shipments and receipts submitted to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Transit matching is a component used by the IAEA in drawing safeguards conclusions and performing investigative analysis. Transit matching is part of IAEA safeguards activities and the State evaluation process, and it is included in the annual Safeguards Implementation Report (SIR). Annually, the IAEA currently receives reports of ~900,000 nuclear material transactions, of which ~500,000 are for domestic and foreign transfers. Of these the IAEA software can automatically match (i.e., machine match) about 95% of the domestic transfersmore » and 25% of the foreign transfers. Given the increasing demands upon IAEA resources, it is highly desirable for the machine-matching process to match as many transfers as possible. Researchers at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) have conducted an investigation funded by the National Nuclear Security Administration through the Next Generation Safeguards Initiative to identify opportunities to strengthen IAEA transit matching. Successful matching, and more specifically machine matching, is contingent on quality data from the reporting States. In February 2016, ORNL hosted representatives from three States, the IAEA, and Euratom to share results from past studies and to discuss the processes, policies, and procedures associated with State reporting for transit matching. Drawing on each entity's experience and knowledge, ORNL developed a best practices document to be shared with the international safeguards community to strengthen transit matching. This paper shares the recommendations that resulted from this strategic meeting and the next steps being taken to strengthen transit matching.« less

Effects of track and threat information on judgments of hurricane strike probability.

PubMed

Wu, Hao-Che; Lindell, Michael K; Prater, Carla S; Samuelson, Charles D

2014-06-01

Although evacuation is one of the best strategies for protecting citizens from hurricane threat, the ways that local elected officials use hurricane data in deciding whether to issue hurricane evacuation orders is not well understood. To begin to address this problem, we examined the effects of hurricane track and intensity information in a laboratory setting where participants judged the probability that hypothetical hurricanes with a constant bearing (i.e., straight line forecast track) would make landfall in each of eight 45 degree sectors around the Gulf of Mexico. The results from 162 participants in a student sample showed that the judged strike probability distributions over the eight sectors within each scenario were, unsurprisingly, unimodal and centered on the sector toward which the forecast track pointed. More significantly, although strike probability judgments for the sector in the direction of the forecast track were generally higher than the corresponding judgments for the other sectors, the latter were not zero. Most significantly, there were no appreciable differences in the patterns of strike probability judgments for hurricane tracks represented by a forecast track only, an uncertainty cone only, or forecast track with an uncertainty cone-a result consistent with a recent survey of coastal residents threatened by Hurricane Charley. The study results suggest that people are able to correctly process basic information about hurricane tracks but they do make some errors. More research is needed to understand the sources of these errors and to identify better methods of displaying uncertainty about hurricane parameters. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

An inter-laboratory comparison study on transfer, persistence and recovery of DNA from cable ties.

PubMed

Steensma, Kristy; Ansell, Ricky; Clarisse, Lindy; Connolly, Edward; Kloosterman, Ate D; McKenna, Louise G; van Oorschot, Roland A H; Szkuta, Bianca; Kokshoorn, Bas

2017-11-01

To address questions on the activity that led to the deposition of biological traces in a particular case, general information on the probabilities of transfer, persistence and recovery of cellular material in relevant scenarios is necessary. These figures may be derived from experimental data described in forensic literature when conditions relevant to the case were included. The experimental methodology regarding sampling, DNA extraction, DNA typing and profile interpretation that were used to generate these published data may differ from those applied in the case and thus the applicability of the literature data may be questioned. To assess the level of variability that different laboratories obtain when similar exhibits are analysed, we performed an inter-laboratory study between four partner laboratories. Five sets of 20 cable ties bound by different volunteers were distributed to the participating laboratories and sampled and processed according to the in-house protocols. Differences were found for the amount of retrieved DNA, as well as for the reportability and composition of the DNA profiles. These differences also resulted in different probabilities of transfer, persistence and recovery for each laboratory. Nevertheless, when applied to a case example, these differences resulted in similar assignments of weight of evidence given activity-level propositions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Artificial emotion triggered stochastic behavior transitions with motivational gain effects for multi-objective robot tasks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dağlarli, Evren; Temeltaş, Hakan

2007-04-01

This paper presents artificial emotional system based autonomous robot control architecture. Hidden Markov model developed as mathematical background for stochastic emotional and behavior transitions. Motivation module of architecture considered as behavioral gain effect generator for achieving multi-objective robot tasks. According to emotional and behavioral state transition probabilities, artificial emotions determine sequences of behaviors. Also motivational gain effects of proposed architecture can be observed on the executing behaviors during simulation.

Probability and Quantum Paradigms: the Interplay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kracklauer, A. F.

2007-12-01

Since the introduction of Born's interpretation of quantum wave functions as yielding the probability density of presence, Quantum Theory and Probability have lived in a troubled symbiosis. Problems arise with this interpretation because quantum probabilities exhibit features alien to usual probabilities, namely non Boolean structure and non positive-definite phase space probability densities. This has inspired research into both elaborate formulations of Probability Theory and alternate interpretations for wave functions. Herein the latter tactic is taken and a suggested variant interpretation of wave functions based on photo detection physics proposed, and some empirical consequences are considered. Although incomplete in a few details, this variant is appealing in its reliance on well tested concepts and technology.

A probability space for quantum models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lemmens, L. F.

2017-06-01

A probability space contains a set of outcomes, a collection of events formed by subsets of the set of outcomes and probabilities defined for all events. A reformulation in terms of propositions allows to use the maximum entropy method to assign the probabilities taking some constraints into account. The construction of a probability space for quantum models is determined by the choice of propositions, choosing the constraints and making the probability assignment by the maximum entropy method. This approach shows, how typical quantum distributions such as Maxwell-Boltzmann, Fermi-Dirac and Bose-Einstein are partly related with well-known classical distributions. The relation between the conditional probability density, given some averages as constraints and the appropriate ensemble is elucidated.

Burst synchronization transitions in a neuronal network of subnetworks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Xiaojuan; Lei, Jinzhi; Perc, Matjaž; Kurths, Jürgen; Chen, Guanrong

2011-03-01

In this paper, the transitions of burst synchronization are explored in a neuronal network consisting of subnetworks. The studied network is composed of electrically coupled bursting Hindmarsh-Rose neurons. Numerical results show that two types of burst synchronization transitions can be induced not only by the variations of intra- and intercoupling strengths but also by changing the probability of random links between different subnetworks and the number of subnetworks. Furthermore, we find that the underlying mechanisms for these two bursting synchronization transitions are different: one is due to the change of spike numbers per burst, while the other is caused by the change of the bursting type. Considering that changes in the coupling strengths and neuronal connections are closely interlaced with brain plasticity, the presented results could have important implications for the role of the brain plasticity in some functional behavior that are associated with synchronization.

Radial Anisotropy in the Mantle Transition Zone and Its Implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, S. J.; Ferreira, A. M.

2016-12-01

Seismic anisotropy is a useful tool to investigate mantle flow, mantle convection, and the presence of melts in mantle, since it provides information on the direction of mantle flow or the orientation of melts by combining it with laboratory results in mineral physics. Although the uppermost and lowermost mantle with strong anisotropy have been well studied, anisotropic properties of the mantle transition zone is still enigmatic. We use a recent global radially anisotropic model, SGLOBE-rani, to examine the patterns of radial anisotropy in the mantle transition zone. Strong faster SV velocity anomalies are found in the upper transition zone beneath subduction zones in the western Pacific, which decrease with depth, thereby nearly isotropic in the lower transition zone. This may imply that the origin for the anisotropy is the lattice-preferred orientation of wadsleyite, the dominant anisotropic mineral in the upper transition zone. The water content in the upper transition zone may be inferred from radial anisotropy because of the report that anisotropic intensity depends on the water content in wadsleyite.