Sample records for lack statistical power

  1. Statistical Power in Meta-Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Liu, Jin

    2015-01-01

    Statistical power is important in a meta-analysis study, although few studies have examined the performance of simulated power in meta-analysis. The purpose of this study is to inform researchers about statistical power estimation on two sample mean difference test under different situations: (1) the discrepancy between the analytical power and…

  2. Explorations in Statistics: Power

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Curran-Everett, Douglas

    2010-01-01

    Learning about statistics is a lot like learning about science: the learning is more meaningful if you can actively explore. This fifth installment of "Explorations in Statistics" revisits power, a concept fundamental to the test of a null hypothesis. Power is the probability that we reject the null hypothesis when it is false. Four…

  3. Statistical power analysis of cardiovascular safety pharmacology studies in conscious rats.

    PubMed

    Bhatt, Siddhartha; Li, Dingzhou; Flynn, Declan; Wisialowski, Todd; Hemkens, Michelle; Steidl-Nichols, Jill

    2016-01-01

    Cardiovascular (CV) toxicity and related attrition are a major challenge for novel therapeutic entities and identifying CV liability early is critical for effective derisking. CV safety pharmacology studies in rats are a valuable tool for early investigation of CV risk. Thorough understanding of data analysis techniques and statistical power of these studies is currently lacking and is imperative for enabling sound decision-making. Data from 24 crossover and 12 parallel design CV telemetry rat studies were used for statistical power calculations. Average values of telemetry parameters (heart rate, blood pressure, body temperature, and activity) were logged every 60s (from 1h predose to 24h post-dose) and reduced to 15min mean values. These data were subsequently binned into super intervals for statistical analysis. A repeated measure analysis of variance was used for statistical analysis of crossover studies and a repeated measure analysis of covariance was used for parallel studies. Statistical power analysis was performed to generate power curves and establish relationships between detectable CV (blood pressure and heart rate) changes and statistical power. Additionally, data from a crossover CV study with phentolamine at 4, 20 and 100mg/kg are reported as a representative example of data analysis methods. Phentolamine produced a CV profile characteristic of alpha adrenergic receptor antagonism, evidenced by a dose-dependent decrease in blood pressure and reflex tachycardia. Detectable blood pressure changes at 80% statistical power for crossover studies (n=8) were 4-5mmHg. For parallel studies (n=8), detectable changes at 80% power were 6-7mmHg. Detectable heart rate changes for both study designs were 20-22bpm. Based on our results, the conscious rat CV model is a sensitive tool to detect and mitigate CV risk in early safety studies. Furthermore, these results will enable informed selection of appropriate models and study design for early stage CV studies

  4. Evaluating and Reporting Statistical Power in Counseling Research

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Balkin, Richard S.; Sheperis, Carl J.

    2011-01-01

    Despite recommendations from the "Publication Manual of the American Psychological Association" (6th ed.) to include information on statistical power when publishing quantitative results, authors seldom include analysis or discussion of statistical power. The rationale for discussing statistical power is addressed, approaches to using "G*Power" to…

  5. The Statistical Power of Planned Comparisons.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Benton, Roberta L.

    Basic principles underlying statistical power are examined; and issues pertaining to effect size, sample size, error variance, and significance level are highlighted via the use of specific hypothetical examples. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) and related methods remain popular, although other procedures sometimes have more statistical power against…

  6. Statistical testing and power analysis for brain-wide association study.

    PubMed

    Gong, Weikang; Wan, Lin; Lu, Wenlian; Ma, Liang; Cheng, Fan; Cheng, Wei; Grünewald, Stefan; Feng, Jianfeng

    2018-04-05

    The identification of connexel-wise associations, which involves examining functional connectivities between pairwise voxels across the whole brain, is both statistically and computationally challenging. Although such a connexel-wise methodology has recently been adopted by brain-wide association studies (BWAS) to identify connectivity changes in several mental disorders, such as schizophrenia, autism and depression, the multiple correction and power analysis methods designed specifically for connexel-wise analysis are still lacking. Therefore, we herein report the development of a rigorous statistical framework for connexel-wise significance testing based on the Gaussian random field theory. It includes controlling the family-wise error rate (FWER) of multiple hypothesis testings using topological inference methods, and calculating power and sample size for a connexel-wise study. Our theoretical framework can control the false-positive rate accurately, as validated empirically using two resting-state fMRI datasets. Compared with Bonferroni correction and false discovery rate (FDR), it can reduce false-positive rate and increase statistical power by appropriately utilizing the spatial information of fMRI data. Importantly, our method bypasses the need of non-parametric permutation to correct for multiple comparison, thus, it can efficiently tackle large datasets with high resolution fMRI images. The utility of our method is shown in a case-control study. Our approach can identify altered functional connectivities in a major depression disorder dataset, whereas existing methods fail. A software package is available at https://github.com/weikanggong/BWAS. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Statistical power as a function of Cronbach alpha of instrument questionnaire items.

    PubMed

    Heo, Moonseong; Kim, Namhee; Faith, Myles S

    2015-10-14

    In countless number of clinical trials, measurements of outcomes rely on instrument questionnaire items which however often suffer measurement error problems which in turn affect statistical power of study designs. The Cronbach alpha or coefficient alpha, here denoted by C(α), can be used as a measure of internal consistency of parallel instrument items that are developed to measure a target unidimensional outcome construct. Scale score for the target construct is often represented by the sum of the item scores. However, power functions based on C(α) have been lacking for various study designs. We formulate a statistical model for parallel items to derive power functions as a function of C(α) under several study designs. To this end, we assume fixed true score variance assumption as opposed to usual fixed total variance assumption. That assumption is critical and practically relevant to show that smaller measurement errors are inversely associated with higher inter-item correlations, and thus that greater C(α) is associated with greater statistical power. We compare the derived theoretical statistical power with empirical power obtained through Monte Carlo simulations for the following comparisons: one-sample comparison of pre- and post-treatment mean differences, two-sample comparison of pre-post mean differences between groups, and two-sample comparison of mean differences between groups. It is shown that C(α) is the same as a test-retest correlation of the scale scores of parallel items, which enables testing significance of C(α). Closed-form power functions and samples size determination formulas are derived in terms of C(α), for all of the aforementioned comparisons. Power functions are shown to be an increasing function of C(α), regardless of comparison of interest. The derived power functions are well validated by simulation studies that show that the magnitudes of theoretical power are virtually identical to those of the empirical power. Regardless

  8. Powerful Statistical Inference for Nested Data Using Sufficient Summary Statistics

    PubMed Central

    Dowding, Irene; Haufe, Stefan

    2018-01-01

    Hierarchically-organized data arise naturally in many psychology and neuroscience studies. As the standard assumption of independent and identically distributed samples does not hold for such data, two important problems are to accurately estimate group-level effect sizes, and to obtain powerful statistical tests against group-level null hypotheses. A common approach is to summarize subject-level data by a single quantity per subject, which is often the mean or the difference between class means, and treat these as samples in a group-level t-test. This “naive” approach is, however, suboptimal in terms of statistical power, as it ignores information about the intra-subject variance. To address this issue, we review several approaches to deal with nested data, with a focus on methods that are easy to implement. With what we call the sufficient-summary-statistic approach, we highlight a computationally efficient technique that can improve statistical power by taking into account within-subject variances, and we provide step-by-step instructions on how to apply this approach to a number of frequently-used measures of effect size. The properties of the reviewed approaches and the potential benefits over a group-level t-test are quantitatively assessed on simulated data and demonstrated on EEG data from a simulated-driving experiment. PMID:29615885

  9. "Using Power Tables to Compute Statistical Power in Multilevel Experimental Designs"

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Konstantopoulos, Spyros

    2009-01-01

    Power computations for one-level experimental designs that assume simple random samples are greatly facilitated by power tables such as those presented in Cohen's book about statistical power analysis. However, in education and the social sciences experimental designs have naturally nested structures and multilevel models are needed to compute the…

  10. Statistical power analysis in wildlife research

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Steidl, R.J.; Hayes, J.P.

    1997-01-01

    Statistical power analysis can be used to increase the efficiency of research efforts and to clarify research results. Power analysis is most valuable in the design or planning phases of research efforts. Such prospective (a priori) power analyses can be used to guide research design and to estimate the number of samples necessary to achieve a high probability of detecting biologically significant effects. Retrospective (a posteriori) power analysis has been advocated as a method to increase information about hypothesis tests that were not rejected. However, estimating power for tests of null hypotheses that were not rejected with the effect size observed in the study is incorrect; these power estimates will always be a??0.50 when bias adjusted and have no relation to true power. Therefore, retrospective power estimates based on the observed effect size for hypothesis tests that were not rejected are misleading; retrospective power estimates are only meaningful when based on effect sizes other than the observed effect size, such as those effect sizes hypothesized to be biologically significant. Retrospective power analysis can be used effectively to estimate the number of samples or effect size that would have been necessary for a completed study to have rejected a specific null hypothesis. Simply presenting confidence intervals can provide additional information about null hypotheses that were not rejected, including information about the size of the true effect and whether or not there is adequate evidence to 'accept' a null hypothesis as true. We suggest that (1) statistical power analyses be routinely incorporated into research planning efforts to increase their efficiency, (2) confidence intervals be used in lieu of retrospective power analyses for null hypotheses that were not rejected to assess the likely size of the true effect, (3) minimum biologically significant effect sizes be used for all power analyses, and (4) if retrospective power estimates are to

  11. The statistical overlap theory of chromatography using power law (fractal) statistics.

    PubMed

    Schure, Mark R; Davis, Joe M

    2011-12-30

    The chromatographic dimensionality was recently proposed as a measure of retention time spacing based on a power law (fractal) distribution. Using this model, a statistical overlap theory (SOT) for chromatographic peaks is developed that estimates the number of peak maxima as a function of the chromatographic dimension, saturation and scale. Power law models exhibit a threshold region whereby below a critical saturation value no loss of peak maxima due to peak fusion occurs as saturation increases. At moderate saturation, behavior is similar to the random (Poisson) peak model. At still higher saturation, the power law model shows loss of peaks nearly independent of the scale and dimension of the model. The physicochemical meaning of the power law scale parameter is discussed and shown to be equal to the Boltzmann-weighted free energy of transfer over the scale limits. The scale is discussed. Small scale range (small β) is shown to generate more uniform chromatograms. Large scale range chromatograms (large β) are shown to give occasional large excursions of retention times; this is a property of power laws where "wild" behavior is noted to occasionally occur. Both cases are shown to be useful depending on the chromatographic saturation. A scale-invariant model of the SOT shows very simple relationships between the fraction of peak maxima and the saturation, peak width and number of theoretical plates. These equations provide much insight into separations which follow power law statistics. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Toward "Constructing" the Concept of Statistical Power: An Optical Analogy.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rogers, Bruce G.

    This paper presents a visual analogy that may be used by instructors to teach the concept of statistical power in statistical courses. Statistical power is mathematically defined as the probability of rejecting a null hypothesis when that null is false, or, equivalently, the probability of detecting a relationship when it exists. The analogy…

  13. The Importance of Teaching Power in Statistical Hypothesis Testing

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Olinsky, Alan; Schumacher, Phyllis; Quinn, John

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we discuss the importance of teaching power considerations in statistical hypothesis testing. Statistical power analysis determines the ability of a study to detect a meaningful effect size, where the effect size is the difference between the hypothesized value of the population parameter under the null hypothesis and the true value…

  14. Designing Intervention Studies: Selected Populations, Range Restrictions, and Statistical Power

    PubMed Central

    Miciak, Jeremy; Taylor, W. Pat; Stuebing, Karla K.; Fletcher, Jack M.; Vaughn, Sharon

    2016-01-01

    An appropriate estimate of statistical power is critical for the design of intervention studies. Although the inclusion of a pretest covariate in the test of the primary outcome can increase statistical power, samples selected on the basis of pretest performance may demonstrate range restriction on the selection measure and other correlated measures. This can result in attenuated pretest-posttest correlations, reducing the variance explained by the pretest covariate. We investigated the implications of two potential range restriction scenarios: direct truncation on a selection measure and indirect range restriction on correlated measures. Empirical and simulated data indicated direct range restriction on the pretest covariate greatly reduced statistical power and necessitated sample size increases of 82%–155% (dependent on selection criteria) to achieve equivalent statistical power to parameters with unrestricted samples. However, measures demonstrating indirect range restriction required much smaller sample size increases (32%–71%) under equivalent scenarios. Additional analyses manipulated the correlations between measures and pretest-posttest correlations to guide planning experiments. Results highlight the need to differentiate between selection measures and potential covariates and to investigate range restriction as a factor impacting statistical power. PMID:28479943

  15. Designing Intervention Studies: Selected Populations, Range Restrictions, and Statistical Power.

    PubMed

    Miciak, Jeremy; Taylor, W Pat; Stuebing, Karla K; Fletcher, Jack M; Vaughn, Sharon

    2016-01-01

    An appropriate estimate of statistical power is critical for the design of intervention studies. Although the inclusion of a pretest covariate in the test of the primary outcome can increase statistical power, samples selected on the basis of pretest performance may demonstrate range restriction on the selection measure and other correlated measures. This can result in attenuated pretest-posttest correlations, reducing the variance explained by the pretest covariate. We investigated the implications of two potential range restriction scenarios: direct truncation on a selection measure and indirect range restriction on correlated measures. Empirical and simulated data indicated direct range restriction on the pretest covariate greatly reduced statistical power and necessitated sample size increases of 82%-155% (dependent on selection criteria) to achieve equivalent statistical power to parameters with unrestricted samples. However, measures demonstrating indirect range restriction required much smaller sample size increases (32%-71%) under equivalent scenarios. Additional analyses manipulated the correlations between measures and pretest-posttest correlations to guide planning experiments. Results highlight the need to differentiate between selection measures and potential covariates and to investigate range restriction as a factor impacting statistical power.

  16. The power and robustness of maximum LOD score statistics.

    PubMed

    Yoo, Y J; Mendell, N R

    2008-07-01

    The maximum LOD score statistic is extremely powerful for gene mapping when calculated using the correct genetic parameter value. When the mode of genetic transmission is unknown, the maximum of the LOD scores obtained using several genetic parameter values is reported. This latter statistic requires higher critical value than the maximum LOD score statistic calculated from a single genetic parameter value. In this paper, we compare the power of maximum LOD scores based on three fixed sets of genetic parameter values with the power of the LOD score obtained after maximizing over the entire range of genetic parameter values. We simulate family data under nine generating models. For generating models with non-zero phenocopy rates, LOD scores maximized over the entire range of genetic parameters yielded greater power than maximum LOD scores for fixed sets of parameter values with zero phenocopy rates. No maximum LOD score was consistently more powerful than the others for generating models with a zero phenocopy rate. The power loss of the LOD score maximized over the entire range of genetic parameters, relative to the maximum LOD score calculated using the correct genetic parameter value, appeared to be robust to the generating models.

  17. Statistical modeling to support power system planning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Staid, Andrea

    This dissertation focuses on data-analytic approaches that improve our understanding of power system applications to promote better decision-making. It tackles issues of risk analysis, uncertainty management, resource estimation, and the impacts of climate change. Tools of data mining and statistical modeling are used to bring new insight to a variety of complex problems facing today's power system. The overarching goal of this research is to improve the understanding of the power system risk environment for improved operation, investment, and planning decisions. The first chapter introduces some challenges faced in planning for a sustainable power system. Chapter 2 analyzes the driving factors behind the disparity in wind energy investments among states with a goal of determining the impact that state-level policies have on incentivizing wind energy. Findings show that policy differences do not explain the disparities; physical and geographical factors are more important. Chapter 3 extends conventional wind forecasting to a risk-based focus of predicting maximum wind speeds, which are dangerous for offshore operations. Statistical models are presented that issue probabilistic predictions for the highest wind speed expected in a three-hour interval. These models achieve a high degree of accuracy and their use can improve safety and reliability in practice. Chapter 4 examines the challenges of wind power estimation for onshore wind farms. Several methods for wind power resource assessment are compared, and the weaknesses of the Jensen model are demonstrated. For two onshore farms, statistical models outperform other methods, even when very little information is known about the wind farm. Lastly, chapter 5 focuses on the power system more broadly in the context of the risks expected from tropical cyclones in a changing climate. Risks to U.S. power system infrastructure are simulated under different scenarios of tropical cyclone behavior that may result from climate

  18. Designing Intervention Studies: Selected Populations, Range Restrictions, and Statistical Power

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Miciak, Jeremy; Taylor, W. Pat; Stuebing, Karla K.; Fletcher, Jack M.; Vaughn, Sharon

    2016-01-01

    An appropriate estimate of statistical power is critical for the design of intervention studies. Although the inclusion of a pretest covariate in the test of the primary outcome can increase statistical power, samples selected on the basis of pretest performance may demonstrate range restriction on the selection measure and other correlated…

  19. Replication Unreliability in Psychology: Elusive Phenomena or “Elusive” Statistical Power?

    PubMed Central

    Tressoldi, Patrizio E.

    2012-01-01

    The focus of this paper is to analyze whether the unreliability of results related to certain controversial psychological phenomena may be a consequence of their low statistical power. Applying the Null Hypothesis Statistical Testing (NHST), still the widest used statistical approach, unreliability derives from the failure to refute the null hypothesis, in particular when exact or quasi-exact replications of experiments are carried out. Taking as example the results of meta-analyses related to four different controversial phenomena, subliminal semantic priming, incubation effect for problem solving, unconscious thought theory, and non-local perception, it was found that, except for semantic priming on categorization, the statistical power to detect the expected effect size (ES) of the typical study, is low or very low. The low power in most studies undermines the use of NHST to study phenomena with moderate or low ESs. We conclude by providing some suggestions on how to increase the statistical power or use different statistical approaches to help discriminate whether the results obtained may or may not be used to support or to refute the reality of a phenomenon with small ES. PMID:22783215

  20. Low statistical power in biomedical science: a review of three human research domains.

    PubMed

    Dumas-Mallet, Estelle; Button, Katherine S; Boraud, Thomas; Gonon, Francois; Munafò, Marcus R

    2017-02-01

    Studies with low statistical power increase the likelihood that a statistically significant finding represents a false positive result. We conducted a review of meta-analyses of studies investigating the association of biological, environmental or cognitive parameters with neurological, psychiatric and somatic diseases, excluding treatment studies, in order to estimate the average statistical power across these domains. Taking the effect size indicated by a meta-analysis as the best estimate of the likely true effect size, and assuming a threshold for declaring statistical significance of 5%, we found that approximately 50% of studies have statistical power in the 0-10% or 11-20% range, well below the minimum of 80% that is often considered conventional. Studies with low statistical power appear to be common in the biomedical sciences, at least in the specific subject areas captured by our search strategy. However, we also observe evidence that this depends in part on research methodology, with candidate gene studies showing very low average power and studies using cognitive/behavioural measures showing high average power. This warrants further investigation.

  1. Low statistical power in biomedical science: a review of three human research domains

    PubMed Central

    Dumas-Mallet, Estelle; Button, Katherine S.; Boraud, Thomas; Gonon, Francois

    2017-01-01

    Studies with low statistical power increase the likelihood that a statistically significant finding represents a false positive result. We conducted a review of meta-analyses of studies investigating the association of biological, environmental or cognitive parameters with neurological, psychiatric and somatic diseases, excluding treatment studies, in order to estimate the average statistical power across these domains. Taking the effect size indicated by a meta-analysis as the best estimate of the likely true effect size, and assuming a threshold for declaring statistical significance of 5%, we found that approximately 50% of studies have statistical power in the 0–10% or 11–20% range, well below the minimum of 80% that is often considered conventional. Studies with low statistical power appear to be common in the biomedical sciences, at least in the specific subject areas captured by our search strategy. However, we also observe evidence that this depends in part on research methodology, with candidate gene studies showing very low average power and studies using cognitive/behavioural measures showing high average power. This warrants further investigation. PMID:28386409

  2. An Examination of Statistical Power in Multigroup Dynamic Structural Equation Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Prindle, John J.; McArdle, John J.

    2012-01-01

    This study used statistical simulation to calculate differential statistical power in dynamic structural equation models with groups (as in McArdle & Prindle, 2008). Patterns of between-group differences were simulated to provide insight into how model parameters influence power approximations. Chi-square and root mean square error of…

  3. Robust Statistical Detection of Power-Law Cross-Correlation.

    PubMed

    Blythe, Duncan A J; Nikulin, Vadim V; Müller, Klaus-Robert

    2016-06-02

    We show that widely used approaches in statistical physics incorrectly indicate the existence of power-law cross-correlations between financial stock market fluctuations measured over several years and the neuronal activity of the human brain lasting for only a few minutes. While such cross-correlations are nonsensical, no current methodology allows them to be reliably discarded, leaving researchers at greater risk when the spurious nature of cross-correlations is not clear from the unrelated origin of the time series and rather requires careful statistical estimation. Here we propose a theory and method (PLCC-test) which allows us to rigorously and robustly test for power-law cross-correlations, correctly detecting genuine and discarding spurious cross-correlations, thus establishing meaningful relationships between processes in complex physical systems. Our method reveals for the first time the presence of power-law cross-correlations between amplitudes of the alpha and beta frequency ranges of the human electroencephalogram.

  4. Robust Statistical Detection of Power-Law Cross-Correlation

    PubMed Central

    Blythe, Duncan A. J.; Nikulin, Vadim V.; Müller, Klaus-Robert

    2016-01-01

    We show that widely used approaches in statistical physics incorrectly indicate the existence of power-law cross-correlations between financial stock market fluctuations measured over several years and the neuronal activity of the human brain lasting for only a few minutes. While such cross-correlations are nonsensical, no current methodology allows them to be reliably discarded, leaving researchers at greater risk when the spurious nature of cross-correlations is not clear from the unrelated origin of the time series and rather requires careful statistical estimation. Here we propose a theory and method (PLCC-test) which allows us to rigorously and robustly test for power-law cross-correlations, correctly detecting genuine and discarding spurious cross-correlations, thus establishing meaningful relationships between processes in complex physical systems. Our method reveals for the first time the presence of power-law cross-correlations between amplitudes of the alpha and beta frequency ranges of the human electroencephalogram. PMID:27250630

  5. Alignment-free sequence comparison (II): theoretical power of comparison statistics.

    PubMed

    Wan, Lin; Reinert, Gesine; Sun, Fengzhu; Waterman, Michael S

    2010-11-01

    Rapid methods for alignment-free sequence comparison make large-scale comparisons between sequences increasingly feasible. Here we study the power of the statistic D2, which counts the number of matching k-tuples between two sequences, as well as D2*, which uses centralized counts, and D2S, which is a self-standardized version, both from a theoretical viewpoint and numerically, providing an easy to use program. The power is assessed under two alternative hidden Markov models; the first one assumes that the two sequences share a common motif, whereas the second model is a pattern transfer model; the null model is that the two sequences are composed of independent and identically distributed letters and they are independent. Under the first alternative model, the means of the tuple counts in the individual sequences change, whereas under the second alternative model, the marginal means are the same as under the null model. Using the limit distributions of the count statistics under the null and the alternative models, we find that generally, asymptotically D2S has the largest power, followed by D2*, whereas the power of D2 can even be zero in some cases. In contrast, even for sequences of length 140,000 bp, in simulations D2* generally has the largest power. Under the first alternative model of a shared motif, the power of D2*approaches 100% when sufficiently many motifs are shared, and we recommend the use of D2* for such practical applications. Under the second alternative model of pattern transfer,the power for all three count statistics does not increase with sequence length when the sequence is sufficiently long, and hence none of the three statistics under consideration canbe recommended in such a situation. We illustrate the approach on 323 transcription factor binding motifs with length at most 10 from JASPAR CORE (October 12, 2009 version),verifying that D2* is generally more powerful than D2. The program to calculate the power of D2, D2* and D2S can be

  6. The relation between statistical power and inference in fMRI

    PubMed Central

    Wager, Tor D.; Yarkoni, Tal

    2017-01-01

    Statistically underpowered studies can result in experimental failure even when all other experimental considerations have been addressed impeccably. In fMRI the combination of a large number of dependent variables, a relatively small number of observations (subjects), and a need to correct for multiple comparisons can decrease statistical power dramatically. This problem has been clearly addressed yet remains controversial—especially in regards to the expected effect sizes in fMRI, and especially for between-subjects effects such as group comparisons and brain-behavior correlations. We aimed to clarify the power problem by considering and contrasting two simulated scenarios of such possible brain-behavior correlations: weak diffuse effects and strong localized effects. Sampling from these scenarios shows that, particularly in the weak diffuse scenario, common sample sizes (n = 20–30) display extremely low statistical power, poorly represent the actual effects in the full sample, and show large variation on subsequent replications. Empirical data from the Human Connectome Project resembles the weak diffuse scenario much more than the localized strong scenario, which underscores the extent of the power problem for many studies. Possible solutions to the power problem include increasing the sample size, using less stringent thresholds, or focusing on a region-of-interest. However, these approaches are not always feasible and some have major drawbacks. The most prominent solutions that may help address the power problem include model-based (multivariate) prediction methods and meta-analyses with related synthesis-oriented approaches. PMID:29155843

  7. New Powerful Statistics for Alignment-free Sequence Comparison Under a Pattern Transfer Model

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Xuemei; Wan, Lin; Li, Jing; Reinert, Gesine; Waterman, Michael S.; Sun, Fengzhu

    2011-01-01

    Alignment-free sequence comparison is widely used for comparing gene regulatory regions and for identifying horizontally transferred genes. Recent studies on the power of a widely used alignment-free comparison statistic D2 and its variants D2∗ and D2s showed that their power approximates a limit smaller than 1 as the sequence length tends to infinity under a pattern transfer model. We develop new alignment-free statistics based on D2, D2∗ and D2s by comparing local sequence pairs and then summing over all the local sequence pairs of certain length. We show that the new statistics are much more powerful than the corresponding statistics and the power tends to 1 as the sequence length tends to infinity under the pattern transfer model. PMID:21723298

  8. Statistical power and effect sizes of depression research in Japan.

    PubMed

    Okumura, Yasuyuki; Sakamoto, Shinji

    2011-06-01

    Few studies have been conducted on the rationales for using interpretive guidelines for effect size, and most of the previous statistical power surveys have covered broad research domains. The present study aimed to estimate the statistical power and to obtain realistic target effect sizes of depression research in Japan. We systematically reviewed 18 leading journals of psychiatry and psychology in Japan and identified 974 depression studies that were mentioned in 935 articles published between 1990 and 2006. In 392 studies, logistic regression analyses revealed that using clinical populations was independently associated with being a statistical power of <0.80 (odds ratio 5.9, 95% confidence interval 2.9-12.0) and of <0.50 (odds ratio 4.9, 95% confidence interval 2.3-10.5). Of the studies using clinical populations, 80% did not achieve a power of 0.80 or more, and 44% did not achieve a power of 0.50 or more to detect the medium population effect sizes. A predictive model for the proportion of variance explained was developed using a linear mixed-effects model. The model was then used to obtain realistic target effect sizes in defined study characteristics. In the face of a real difference or correlation in population, many depression researchers are less likely to give a valid result than simply tossing a coin. It is important to educate depression researchers in order to enable them to conduct an a priori power analysis. © 2011 The Authors. Psychiatry and Clinical Neurosciences © 2011 Japanese Society of Psychiatry and Neurology.

  9. New powerful statistics for alignment-free sequence comparison under a pattern transfer model.

    PubMed

    Liu, Xuemei; Wan, Lin; Li, Jing; Reinert, Gesine; Waterman, Michael S; Sun, Fengzhu

    2011-09-07

    Alignment-free sequence comparison is widely used for comparing gene regulatory regions and for identifying horizontally transferred genes. Recent studies on the power of a widely used alignment-free comparison statistic D2 and its variants D*2 and D(s)2 showed that their power approximates a limit smaller than 1 as the sequence length tends to infinity under a pattern transfer model. We develop new alignment-free statistics based on D2, D*2 and D(s)2 by comparing local sequence pairs and then summing over all the local sequence pairs of certain length. We show that the new statistics are much more powerful than the corresponding statistics and the power tends to 1 as the sequence length tends to infinity under the pattern transfer model. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Doing many things at a time: Lack of power decreases the ability to multitask.

    PubMed

    Cai, Ran Alice; Guinote, Ana

    2017-09-01

    Three studies investigated the effects of power on the ability to pursue multiple, concomitant goals, also known as multitasking. It was predicted that powerless participants will show lower multitasking ability than control and powerful participants. Study 1 focused on self-reported ability to multitask in a sample of executives and subordinate employees. Studies 2 and 3 investigated the ability to dual-task and to switch between tasks, respectively, using dual-task and task-switching paradigms. Across the studies, powerless individuals were less able to effectively multitask compared with control and powerful participants, suggesting that the detrimental effects of lack of power extend beyond single-task environments, shown in past research, into multitasking environments. Underlying mechanisms are discussed. © 2017 The British Psychological Society.

  11. Monte Carlo based statistical power analysis for mediation models: methods and software.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Zhiyong

    2014-12-01

    The existing literature on statistical power analysis for mediation models often assumes data normality and is based on a less powerful Sobel test instead of the more powerful bootstrap test. This study proposes to estimate statistical power to detect mediation effects on the basis of the bootstrap method through Monte Carlo simulation. Nonnormal data with excessive skewness and kurtosis are allowed in the proposed method. A free R package called bmem is developed to conduct the power analysis discussed in this study. Four examples, including a simple mediation model, a multiple-mediator model with a latent mediator, a multiple-group mediation model, and a longitudinal mediation model, are provided to illustrate the proposed method.

  12. Advances in Testing the Statistical Significance of Mediation Effects

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mallinckrodt, Brent; Abraham, W. Todd; Wei, Meifen; Russell, Daniel W.

    2006-01-01

    P. A. Frazier, A. P. Tix, and K. E. Barron (2004) highlighted a normal theory method popularized by R. M. Baron and D. A. Kenny (1986) for testing the statistical significance of indirect effects (i.e., mediator variables) in multiple regression contexts. However, simulation studies suggest that this method lacks statistical power relative to some…

  13. Monitoring Statistics Which Have Increased Power over a Reduced Time Range.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tang, S. M.; MacNeill, I. B.

    1992-01-01

    The problem of monitoring trends for changes at unknown times is considered. Statistics that permit one to focus high power on a segment of the monitored period are studied. Numerical procedures are developed to compute the null distribution of these statistics. (Author)

  14. Causality in Statistical Power: Isomorphic Properties of Measurement, Research Design, Effect Size, and Sample Size.

    PubMed

    Heidel, R Eric

    2016-01-01

    Statistical power is the ability to detect a significant effect, given that the effect actually exists in a population. Like most statistical concepts, statistical power tends to induce cognitive dissonance in hepatology researchers. However, planning for statistical power by an a priori sample size calculation is of paramount importance when designing a research study. There are five specific empirical components that make up an a priori sample size calculation: the scale of measurement of the outcome, the research design, the magnitude of the effect size, the variance of the effect size, and the sample size. A framework grounded in the phenomenon of isomorphism, or interdependencies amongst different constructs with similar forms, will be presented to understand the isomorphic effects of decisions made on each of the five aforementioned components of statistical power.

  15. Statistical power analyses using G*Power 3.1: tests for correlation and regression analyses.

    PubMed

    Faul, Franz; Erdfelder, Edgar; Buchner, Axel; Lang, Albert-Georg

    2009-11-01

    G*Power is a free power analysis program for a variety of statistical tests. We present extensions and improvements of the version introduced by Faul, Erdfelder, Lang, and Buchner (2007) in the domain of correlation and regression analyses. In the new version, we have added procedures to analyze the power of tests based on (1) single-sample tetrachoric correlations, (2) comparisons of dependent correlations, (3) bivariate linear regression, (4) multiple linear regression based on the random predictor model, (5) logistic regression, and (6) Poisson regression. We describe these new features and provide a brief introduction to their scope and handling.

  16. A statistical spatial power spectrum of the Earth's lithospheric magnetic field

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thébault, E.; Vervelidou, F.

    2015-05-01

    The magnetic field of the Earth's lithosphere arises from rock magnetization contrasts that were shaped over geological times. The field can be described mathematically in spherical harmonics or with distributions of magnetization. We exploit this dual representation and assume that the lithospheric field is induced by spatially varying susceptibility values within a shell of constant thickness. By introducing a statistical assumption about the power spectrum of the susceptibility, we then derive a statistical expression for the spatial power spectrum of the crustal magnetic field for the spatial scales ranging from 60 to 2500 km. This expression depends on the mean induced magnetization, the thickness of the shell, and a power law exponent for the power spectrum of the susceptibility. We test the relevance of this form with a misfit analysis to the observational NGDC-720 lithospheric magnetic field model power spectrum. This allows us to estimate a mean global apparent induced magnetization value between 0.3 and 0.6 A m-1, a mean magnetic crustal thickness value between 23 and 30 km, and a root mean square for the field value between 190 and 205 nT at 95 per cent. These estimates are in good agreement with independent models of the crustal magnetization and of the seismic crustal thickness. We carry out the same analysis in the continental and oceanic domains separately. We complement the misfit analyses with a Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness-of-fit test and we conclude that the observed power spectrum can be each time a sample of the statistical one.

  17. Statistical analysis of cascading failures in power grids

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Chertkov, Michael; Pfitzner, Rene; Turitsyn, Konstantin

    2010-12-01

    We introduce a new microscopic model of cascading failures in transmission power grids. This model accounts for automatic response of the grid to load fluctuations that take place on the scale of minutes, when optimum power flow adjustments and load shedding controls are unavailable. We describe extreme events, caused by load fluctuations, which cause cascading failures of loads, generators and lines. Our model is quasi-static in the causal, discrete time and sequential resolution of individual failures. The model, in its simplest realization based on the Directed Current description of the power flow problem, is tested on three standard IEEE systemsmore » consisting of 30, 39 and 118 buses. Our statistical analysis suggests a straightforward classification of cascading and islanding phases in terms of the ratios between average number of removed loads, generators and links. The analysis also demonstrates sensitivity to variations in line capacities. Future research challenges in modeling and control of cascading outages over real-world power networks are discussed.« less

  18. Statistical Power of Psychological Research: What Have We Gained in 20 Years?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rossi, Joseph S.

    1990-01-01

    Calculated power for 6,155 statistical tests in 221 journal articles published in 1982 volumes of "Journal of Abnormal Psychology,""Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology," and "Journal of Personality and Social Psychology." Power to detect small, medium, and large effects was .17, .57, and .83, respectively. Concluded that power of…

  19. Statistical analyses support power law distributions found in neuronal avalanches.

    PubMed

    Klaus, Andreas; Yu, Shan; Plenz, Dietmar

    2011-01-01

    The size distribution of neuronal avalanches in cortical networks has been reported to follow a power law distribution with exponent close to -1.5, which is a reflection of long-range spatial correlations in spontaneous neuronal activity. However, identifying power law scaling in empirical data can be difficult and sometimes controversial. In the present study, we tested the power law hypothesis for neuronal avalanches by using more stringent statistical analyses. In particular, we performed the following steps: (i) analysis of finite-size scaling to identify scale-free dynamics in neuronal avalanches, (ii) model parameter estimation to determine the specific exponent of the power law, and (iii) comparison of the power law to alternative model distributions. Consistent with critical state dynamics, avalanche size distributions exhibited robust scaling behavior in which the maximum avalanche size was limited only by the spatial extent of sampling ("finite size" effect). This scale-free dynamics suggests the power law as a model for the distribution of avalanche sizes. Using both the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic and a maximum likelihood approach, we found the slope to be close to -1.5, which is in line with previous reports. Finally, the power law model for neuronal avalanches was compared to the exponential and to various heavy-tail distributions based on the Kolmogorov-Smirnov distance and by using a log-likelihood ratio test. Both the power law distribution without and with exponential cut-off provided significantly better fits to the cluster size distributions in neuronal avalanches than the exponential, the lognormal and the gamma distribution. In summary, our findings strongly support the power law scaling in neuronal avalanches, providing further evidence for critical state dynamics in superficial layers of cortex.

  20. Are the Nonparametric Person-Fit Statistics More Powerful than Their Parametric Counterparts? Revisiting the Simulations in Karabatsos (2003)

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sinharay, Sandip

    2017-01-01

    Karabatsos compared the power of 36 person-fit statistics using receiver operating characteristics curves and found the "H[superscript T]" statistic to be the most powerful in identifying aberrant examinees. He found three statistics, "C", "MCI", and "U3", to be the next most powerful. These four statistics,…

  1. Asking Sensitive Questions: A Statistical Power Analysis of Randomized Response Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ulrich, Rolf; Schroter, Hannes; Striegel, Heiko; Simon, Perikles

    2012-01-01

    This article derives the power curves for a Wald test that can be applied to randomized response models when small prevalence rates must be assessed (e.g., detecting doping behavior among elite athletes). These curves enable the assessment of the statistical power that is associated with each model (e.g., Warner's model, crosswise model, unrelated…

  2. Statistical Performances of Resistive Active Power Splitter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lalléchère, Sébastien; Ravelo, Blaise; Thakur, Atul

    2016-03-01

    In this paper, the synthesis and sensitivity analysis of an active power splitter (PWS) is proposed. It is based on the active cell composed of a Field Effect Transistor in cascade with shunted resistor at the input and the output (resistive amplifier topology). The PWS uncertainty versus resistance tolerances is suggested by using stochastic method. Furthermore, with the proposed topology, we can control easily the device gain while varying a resistance. This provides useful tool to analyse the statistical sensitivity of the system in uncertain environment.

  3. Statistical power to detect violation of the proportional hazards assumption when using the Cox regression model.

    PubMed

    Austin, Peter C

    2018-01-01

    The use of the Cox proportional hazards regression model is widespread. A key assumption of the model is that of proportional hazards. Analysts frequently test the validity of this assumption using statistical significance testing. However, the statistical power of such assessments is frequently unknown. We used Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the statistical power of two different methods for detecting violations of this assumption. When the covariate was binary, we found that a model-based method had greater power than a method based on cumulative sums of martingale residuals. Furthermore, the parametric nature of the distribution of event times had an impact on power when the covariate was binary. Statistical power to detect a strong violation of the proportional hazards assumption was low to moderate even when the number of observed events was high. In many data sets, power to detect a violation of this assumption is likely to be low to modest.

  4. Statistical power to detect violation of the proportional hazards assumption when using the Cox regression model

    PubMed Central

    Austin, Peter C.

    2017-01-01

    The use of the Cox proportional hazards regression model is widespread. A key assumption of the model is that of proportional hazards. Analysts frequently test the validity of this assumption using statistical significance testing. However, the statistical power of such assessments is frequently unknown. We used Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the statistical power of two different methods for detecting violations of this assumption. When the covariate was binary, we found that a model-based method had greater power than a method based on cumulative sums of martingale residuals. Furthermore, the parametric nature of the distribution of event times had an impact on power when the covariate was binary. Statistical power to detect a strong violation of the proportional hazards assumption was low to moderate even when the number of observed events was high. In many data sets, power to detect a violation of this assumption is likely to be low to modest. PMID:29321694

  5. Power, effects, confidence, and significance: an investigation of statistical practices in nursing research.

    PubMed

    Gaskin, Cadeyrn J; Happell, Brenda

    2014-05-01

    To (a) assess the statistical power of nursing research to detect small, medium, and large effect sizes; (b) estimate the experiment-wise Type I error rate in these studies; and (c) assess the extent to which (i) a priori power analyses, (ii) effect sizes (and interpretations thereof), and (iii) confidence intervals were reported. Statistical review. Papers published in the 2011 volumes of the 10 highest ranked nursing journals, based on their 5-year impact factors. Papers were assessed for statistical power, control of experiment-wise Type I error, reporting of a priori power analyses, reporting and interpretation of effect sizes, and reporting of confidence intervals. The analyses were based on 333 papers, from which 10,337 inferential statistics were identified. The median power to detect small, medium, and large effect sizes was .40 (interquartile range [IQR]=.24-.71), .98 (IQR=.85-1.00), and 1.00 (IQR=1.00-1.00), respectively. The median experiment-wise Type I error rate was .54 (IQR=.26-.80). A priori power analyses were reported in 28% of papers. Effect sizes were routinely reported for Spearman's rank correlations (100% of papers in which this test was used), Poisson regressions (100%), odds ratios (100%), Kendall's tau correlations (100%), Pearson's correlations (99%), logistic regressions (98%), structural equation modelling/confirmatory factor analyses/path analyses (97%), and linear regressions (83%), but were reported less often for two-proportion z tests (50%), analyses of variance/analyses of covariance/multivariate analyses of variance (18%), t tests (8%), Wilcoxon's tests (8%), Chi-squared tests (8%), and Fisher's exact tests (7%), and not reported for sign tests, Friedman's tests, McNemar's tests, multi-level models, and Kruskal-Wallis tests. Effect sizes were infrequently interpreted. Confidence intervals were reported in 28% of papers. The use, reporting, and interpretation of inferential statistics in nursing research need substantial

  6. Statistical Power of Alternative Structural Models for Comparative Effectiveness Research: Advantages of Modeling Unreliability.

    PubMed

    Coman, Emil N; Iordache, Eugen; Dierker, Lisa; Fifield, Judith; Schensul, Jean J; Suggs, Suzanne; Barbour, Russell

    2014-05-01

    The advantages of modeling the unreliability of outcomes when evaluating the comparative effectiveness of health interventions is illustrated. Adding an action-research intervention component to a regular summer job program for youth was expected to help in preventing risk behaviors. A series of simple two-group alternative structural equation models are compared to test the effect of the intervention on one key attitudinal outcome in terms of model fit and statistical power with Monte Carlo simulations. Some models presuming parameters equal across the intervention and comparison groups were underpowered to detect the intervention effect, yet modeling the unreliability of the outcome measure increased their statistical power and helped in the detection of the hypothesized effect. Comparative Effectiveness Research (CER) could benefit from flexible multi-group alternative structural models organized in decision trees, and modeling unreliability of measures can be of tremendous help for both the fit of statistical models to the data and their statistical power.

  7. Effect size and statistical power in the rodent fear conditioning literature - A systematic review.

    PubMed

    Carneiro, Clarissa F D; Moulin, Thiago C; Macleod, Malcolm R; Amaral, Olavo B

    2018-01-01

    Proposals to increase research reproducibility frequently call for focusing on effect sizes instead of p values, as well as for increasing the statistical power of experiments. However, it is unclear to what extent these two concepts are indeed taken into account in basic biomedical science. To study this in a real-case scenario, we performed a systematic review of effect sizes and statistical power in studies on learning of rodent fear conditioning, a widely used behavioral task to evaluate memory. Our search criteria yielded 410 experiments comparing control and treated groups in 122 articles. Interventions had a mean effect size of 29.5%, and amnesia caused by memory-impairing interventions was nearly always partial. Mean statistical power to detect the average effect size observed in well-powered experiments with significant differences (37.2%) was 65%, and was lower among studies with non-significant results. Only one article reported a sample size calculation, and our estimated sample size to achieve 80% power considering typical effect sizes and variances (15 animals per group) was reached in only 12.2% of experiments. Actual effect sizes correlated with effect size inferences made by readers on the basis of textual descriptions of results only when findings were non-significant, and neither effect size nor power correlated with study quality indicators, number of citations or impact factor of the publishing journal. In summary, effect sizes and statistical power have a wide distribution in the rodent fear conditioning literature, but do not seem to have a large influence on how results are described or cited. Failure to take these concepts into consideration might limit attempts to improve reproducibility in this field of science.

  8. Determining the Statistical Power of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Anderson-Darling Goodness-of-Fit Tests via Monte Carlo Simulation

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2016-12-01

    KS and AD Statistical Power via Monte Carlo Simulation Statistical power is the probability of correctly rejecting the null hypothesis when the...Select a caveat DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release: distribution unlimited. Determining the Statistical Power...real-world data to test the accuracy of the simulation. Statistical comparison of these metrics can be necessary when making such a determination

  9. [Effect sizes, statistical power and sample sizes in "the Japanese Journal of Psychology"].

    PubMed

    Suzukawa, Yumi; Toyoda, Hideki

    2012-04-01

    This study analyzed the statistical power of research studies published in the "Japanese Journal of Psychology" in 2008 and 2009. Sample effect sizes and sample statistical powers were calculated for each statistical test and analyzed with respect to the analytical methods and the fields of the studies. The results show that in the fields like perception, cognition or learning, the effect sizes were relatively large, although the sample sizes were small. At the same time, because of the small sample sizes, some meaningful effects could not be detected. In the other fields, because of the large sample sizes, meaningless effects could be detected. This implies that researchers who could not get large enough effect sizes would use larger samples to obtain significant results.

  10. Power spectra as a diagnostic tool in probing statistical/nonstatistical behavior in unimolecular reactions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, Xiaoyen Y.; Sewell, Thomas D.; Raff, Lionel M.; Thompson, Donald L.

    1992-11-01

    The possibility of utilizing different types of power spectra obtained from classical trajectories as a diagnostic tool to identify the presence of nonstatistical dynamics is explored by using the unimolecular bond-fission reactions of 1,2-difluoroethane and the 2-chloroethyl radical as test cases. In previous studies, the reaction rates for these systems were calculated by using a variational transition-state theory and classical trajectory methods. A comparison of the results showed that 1,2-difluoroethane is a nonstatistical system, while the 2-chloroethyl radical behaves statistically. Power spectra for these two systems have been generated under various conditions. The characteristics of these spectra are as follows: (1) The spectra for the 2-chloroethyl radical are always broader and more coupled to other modes than is the case for 1,2-difluoroethane. This is true even at very low levels of excitation. (2) When an internal energy near or above the dissociation threshold is initially partitioned into a local C-H stretching mode, the power spectra for 1,2-difluoroethane broaden somewhat, but discrete and somewhat isolated bands are still clearly evident. In contrast, the analogous power spectra for the 2-chloroethyl radical exhibit a near complete absence of isolated bands. The general appearance of the spectrum suggests a very high level of mode-to-mode coupling, large intramolecular vibrational energy redistribution (IVR) rates, and global statistical behavior. (3) The appearance of the power spectrum for the 2-chloroethyl radical is unaltered regardless of whether the initial C-H excitation is in the CH2 or the CH2Cl group. This result also suggests statistical behavior. These results are interpreted to mean that power spectra may be used as a diagnostic tool to assess the statistical character of a system. The presence of a diffuse spectrum exhibiting a nearly complete loss of isolated structures indicates that the dissociation dynamics of the molecule will

  11. A Note on Comparing the Power of Test Statistics at Low Significance Levels.

    PubMed

    Morris, Nathan; Elston, Robert

    2011-01-01

    It is an obvious fact that the power of a test statistic is dependent upon the significance (alpha) level at which the test is performed. It is perhaps a less obvious fact that the relative performance of two statistics in terms of power is also a function of the alpha level. Through numerous personal discussions, we have noted that even some competent statisticians have the mistaken intuition that relative power comparisons at traditional levels such as α = 0.05 will be roughly similar to relative power comparisons at very low levels, such as the level α = 5 × 10 -8 , which is commonly used in genome-wide association studies. In this brief note, we demonstrate that this notion is in fact quite wrong, especially with respect to comparing tests with differing degrees of freedom. In fact, at very low alpha levels the cost of additional degrees of freedom is often comparatively low. Thus we recommend that statisticians exercise caution when interpreting the results of power comparison studies which use alpha levels that will not be used in practice.

  12. Visual and Statistical Analysis of Digital Elevation Models Generated Using Idw Interpolator with Varying Powers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Asal, F. F.

    2012-07-01

    Digital elevation data obtained from different Engineering Surveying techniques is utilized in generating Digital Elevation Model (DEM), which is employed in many Engineering and Environmental applications. This data is usually in discrete point format making it necessary to utilize an interpolation approach for the creation of DEM. Quality assessment of the DEM is a vital issue controlling its use in different applications; however this assessment relies heavily on statistical methods with neglecting the visual methods. The research applies visual analysis investigation on DEMs generated using IDW interpolator of varying powers in order to examine their potential in the assessment of the effects of the variation of the IDW power on the quality of the DEMs. Real elevation data has been collected from field using total station instrument in a corrugated terrain. DEMs have been generated from the data at a unified cell size using IDW interpolator with power values ranging from one to ten. Visual analysis has been undertaken using 2D and 3D views of the DEM; in addition, statistical analysis has been performed for assessment of the validity of the visual techniques in doing such analysis. Visual analysis has shown that smoothing of the DEM decreases with the increase in the power value till the power of four; however, increasing the power more than four does not leave noticeable changes on 2D and 3D views of the DEM. The statistical analysis has supported these results where the value of the Standard Deviation (SD) of the DEM has increased with increasing the power. More specifically, changing the power from one to two has produced 36% of the total increase (the increase in SD due to changing the power from one to ten) in SD and changing to the powers of three and four has given 60% and 75% respectively. This refers to decrease in DEM smoothing with the increase in the power of the IDW. The study also has shown that applying visual methods supported by statistical

  13. How Many Studies Do You Need? A Primer on Statistical Power for Meta-Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Valentine, Jeffrey C.; Pigott, Therese D.; Rothstein, Hannah R.

    2010-01-01

    In this article, the authors outline methods for using fixed and random effects power analysis in the context of meta-analysis. Like statistical power analysis for primary studies, power analysis for meta-analysis can be done either prospectively or retrospectively and requires assumptions about parameters that are unknown. The authors provide…

  14. Effect size and statistical power in the rodent fear conditioning literature – A systematic review

    PubMed Central

    Macleod, Malcolm R.

    2018-01-01

    Proposals to increase research reproducibility frequently call for focusing on effect sizes instead of p values, as well as for increasing the statistical power of experiments. However, it is unclear to what extent these two concepts are indeed taken into account in basic biomedical science. To study this in a real-case scenario, we performed a systematic review of effect sizes and statistical power in studies on learning of rodent fear conditioning, a widely used behavioral task to evaluate memory. Our search criteria yielded 410 experiments comparing control and treated groups in 122 articles. Interventions had a mean effect size of 29.5%, and amnesia caused by memory-impairing interventions was nearly always partial. Mean statistical power to detect the average effect size observed in well-powered experiments with significant differences (37.2%) was 65%, and was lower among studies with non-significant results. Only one article reported a sample size calculation, and our estimated sample size to achieve 80% power considering typical effect sizes and variances (15 animals per group) was reached in only 12.2% of experiments. Actual effect sizes correlated with effect size inferences made by readers on the basis of textual descriptions of results only when findings were non-significant, and neither effect size nor power correlated with study quality indicators, number of citations or impact factor of the publishing journal. In summary, effect sizes and statistical power have a wide distribution in the rodent fear conditioning literature, but do not seem to have a large influence on how results are described or cited. Failure to take these concepts into consideration might limit attempts to improve reproducibility in this field of science. PMID:29698451

  15. Statistical power and optimal design in experiments in which samples of participants respond to samples of stimuli.

    PubMed

    Westfall, Jacob; Kenny, David A; Judd, Charles M

    2014-10-01

    Researchers designing experiments in which a sample of participants responds to a sample of stimuli are faced with difficult questions about optimal study design. The conventional procedures of statistical power analysis fail to provide appropriate answers to these questions because they are based on statistical models in which stimuli are not assumed to be a source of random variation in the data, models that are inappropriate for experiments involving crossed random factors of participants and stimuli. In this article, we present new methods of power analysis for designs with crossed random factors, and we give detailed, practical guidance to psychology researchers planning experiments in which a sample of participants responds to a sample of stimuli. We extensively examine 5 commonly used experimental designs, describe how to estimate statistical power in each, and provide power analysis results based on a reasonable set of default parameter values. We then develop general conclusions and formulate rules of thumb concerning the optimal design of experiments in which a sample of participants responds to a sample of stimuli. We show that in crossed designs, statistical power typically does not approach unity as the number of participants goes to infinity but instead approaches a maximum attainable power value that is possibly small, depending on the stimulus sample. We also consider the statistical merits of designs involving multiple stimulus blocks. Finally, we provide a simple and flexible Web-based power application to aid researchers in planning studies with samples of stimuli.

  16. Statistical power of intervention analyses: simulation and empirical application to treated lumber prices

    Treesearch

    Jeffrey P. Prestemon

    2009-01-01

    Timber product markets are subject to large shocks deriving from natural disturbances and policy shifts. Statistical modeling of shocks is often done to assess their economic importance. In this article, I simulate the statistical power of univariate and bivariate methods of shock detection using time series intervention models. Simulations show that bivariate methods...

  17. Determinants of Judgments of Explanatory Power: Credibility, Generality, and Statistical Relevance

    PubMed Central

    Colombo, Matteo; Bucher, Leandra; Sprenger, Jan

    2017-01-01

    Explanation is a central concept in human psychology. Drawing upon philosophical theories of explanation, psychologists have recently begun to examine the relationship between explanation, probability and causality. Our study advances this growing literature at the intersection of psychology and philosophy of science by systematically investigating how judgments of explanatory power are affected by (i) the prior credibility of an explanatory hypothesis, (ii) the causal framing of the hypothesis, (iii) the perceived generalizability of the explanation, and (iv) the relation of statistical relevance between hypothesis and evidence. Collectively, the results of our five experiments support the hypothesis that the prior credibility of a causal explanation plays a central role in explanatory reasoning: first, because of the presence of strong main effects on judgments of explanatory power, and second, because of the gate-keeping role it has for other factors. Highly credible explanations are not susceptible to causal framing effects, but they are sensitive to the effects of normatively relevant factors: the generalizability of an explanation, and its statistical relevance for the evidence. These results advance current literature in the philosophy and psychology of explanation in three ways. First, they yield a more nuanced understanding of the determinants of judgments of explanatory power, and the interaction between these factors. Second, they show the close relationship between prior beliefs and explanatory power. Third, they elucidate the nature of abductive reasoning. PMID:28928679

  18. Determinants of Judgments of Explanatory Power: Credibility, Generality, and Statistical Relevance.

    PubMed

    Colombo, Matteo; Bucher, Leandra; Sprenger, Jan

    2017-01-01

    Explanation is a central concept in human psychology. Drawing upon philosophical theories of explanation, psychologists have recently begun to examine the relationship between explanation, probability and causality. Our study advances this growing literature at the intersection of psychology and philosophy of science by systematically investigating how judgments of explanatory power are affected by (i) the prior credibility of an explanatory hypothesis, (ii) the causal framing of the hypothesis, (iii) the perceived generalizability of the explanation, and (iv) the relation of statistical relevance between hypothesis and evidence. Collectively, the results of our five experiments support the hypothesis that the prior credibility of a causal explanation plays a central role in explanatory reasoning: first, because of the presence of strong main effects on judgments of explanatory power, and second, because of the gate-keeping role it has for other factors. Highly credible explanations are not susceptible to causal framing effects, but they are sensitive to the effects of normatively relevant factors: the generalizability of an explanation, and its statistical relevance for the evidence. These results advance current literature in the philosophy and psychology of explanation in three ways. First, they yield a more nuanced understanding of the determinants of judgments of explanatory power, and the interaction between these factors. Second, they show the close relationship between prior beliefs and explanatory power. Third, they elucidate the nature of abductive reasoning.

  19. Statistical tests for power-law cross-correlated processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Podobnik, Boris; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Zhou, Wei-Xing; Stanley, H. Eugene

    2011-12-01

    For stationary time series, the cross-covariance and the cross-correlation as functions of time lag n serve to quantify the similarity of two time series. The latter measure is also used to assess whether the cross-correlations are statistically significant. For nonstationary time series, the analogous measures are detrended cross-correlations analysis (DCCA) and the recently proposed detrended cross-correlation coefficient, ρDCCA(T,n), where T is the total length of the time series and n the window size. For ρDCCA(T,n), we numerically calculated the Cauchy inequality -1≤ρDCCA(T,n)≤1. Here we derive -1≤ρDCCA(T,n)≤1 for a standard variance-covariance approach and for a detrending approach. For overlapping windows, we find the range of ρDCCA within which the cross-correlations become statistically significant. For overlapping windows we numerically determine—and for nonoverlapping windows we derive—that the standard deviation of ρDCCA(T,n) tends with increasing T to 1/T. Using ρDCCA(T,n) we show that the Chinese financial market's tendency to follow the U.S. market is extremely weak. We also propose an additional statistical test that can be used to quantify the existence of cross-correlations between two power-law correlated time series.

  20. Power-law statistics of neurophysiological processes analyzed using short signals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pavlova, Olga N.; Runnova, Anastasiya E.; Pavlov, Alexey N.

    2018-04-01

    We discuss the problem of quantifying power-law statistics of complex processes from short signals. Based on the analysis of electroencephalograms (EEG) we compare three interrelated approaches which enable characterization of the power spectral density (PSD) and show that an application of the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) or the wavelet-transform modulus maxima (WTMM) method represents a useful way of indirect characterization of the PSD features from short data sets. We conclude that despite DFA- and WTMM-based measures can be obtained from the estimated PSD, these tools outperform the standard spectral analysis when characterization of the analyzed regime should be provided based on a very limited amount of data.

  1. Detecting higher spin fields through statistical anisotropy in the CMB and galaxy power spectra

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bartolo, Nicola; Kehagias, Alex; Liguori, Michele; Riotto, Antonio; Shiraishi, Maresuke; Tansella, Vittorio

    2018-01-01

    Primordial inflation may represent the most powerful collider to test high-energy physics models. In this paper we study the impact on the inflationary power spectrum of the comoving curvature perturbation in the specific model where massive higher spin fields are rendered effectively massless during a de Sitter epoch through suitable couplings to the inflaton field. In particular, we show that such fields with spin s induce a distinctive statistical anisotropic signal on the power spectrum, in such a way that not only the usual g2 M-statistical anisotropy coefficients, but also higher-order ones (i.e., g4 M,g6 M,…,g(2 s -2 )M and g(2 s )M) are nonvanishing. We examine their imprints in the cosmic microwave background and galaxy power spectra. Our Fisher matrix forecasts indicate that the detectability of gL M depends very weakly on L : all coefficients could be detected in near future if their magnitudes are bigger than about 10-3.

  2. Water Polo Game-Related Statistics in Women’s International Championships: Differences and Discriminatory Power

    PubMed Central

    Escalante, Yolanda; Saavedra, Jose M.; Tella, Victor; Mansilla, Mirella; García-Hermoso, Antonio; Dominguez, Ana M.

    2012-01-01

    The aims of this study were (i) to compare women’s water polo game-related statistics by match outcome (winning and losing teams) and phase (preliminary, classificatory, and semi-final/bronze medal/gold medal), and (ii) identify characteristics that discriminate performances for each phase. The game-related statistics of the 124 women’s matches played in five International Championships (World and European Championships) were analyzed. Differences between winning and losing teams in each phase were determined using the chi-squared. A discriminant analysis was then performed according to context in each of the three phases. It was found that the game-related statistics differentiate the winning from the losing teams in each phase of an international championship. The differentiating variables were both offensive (centre goals, power-play goals, counterattack goal, assists, offensive fouls, steals, blocked shots, and won sprints) and defensive (goalkeeper-blocked shots, goalkeeper-blocked inferiority shots, and goalkeeper-blocked 5-m shots). The discriminant analysis showed the game-related statistics to discriminate performance in all phases: preliminary, classificatory, and final phases (92%, 90%, and 83%, respectively). Two variables were discriminatory by match outcome (winning or losing teams) in all three phases: goals and goalkeeper-blocked shots. Key pointsThe preliminary phase that more than one variable was involved in this differentiation, including both offensive and defensive aspects of the game.The game-related statistics were found to have a high discriminatory power in predicting the result of matches with shots and goalkeeper-blocked shots being discriminatory variables in all three phases.Knowledge of the characteristics of women’s water polo game-related statistics of the winning teams and their power to predict match outcomes will allow coaches to take these characteristics into account when planning training and match preparation. PMID

  3. The Role of Atmospheric Measurements in Wind Power Statistical Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wharton, S.; Bulaevskaya, V.; Irons, Z.; Newman, J. F.; Clifton, A.

    2015-12-01

    The simplest wind power generation curves model power only as a function of the wind speed at turbine hub-height. While the latter is an essential predictor of power output, it is widely accepted that wind speed information in other parts of the vertical profile, as well as additional atmospheric variables including atmospheric stability, wind veer, and hub-height turbulence are also important factors. The goal of this work is to determine the gain in predictive ability afforded by adding additional atmospheric measurements to the power prediction model. In particular, we are interested in quantifying any gain in predictive ability afforded by measurements taken from a laser detection and ranging (lidar) instrument, as lidar provides high spatial and temporal resolution measurements of wind speed and direction at 10 or more levels throughout the rotor-disk and at heights well above. Co-located lidar and meteorological tower data as well as SCADA power data from a wind farm in Northern Oklahoma will be used to train a set of statistical models. In practice, most wind farms continue to rely on atmospheric measurements taken from less expensive, in situ instruments mounted on meteorological towers to assess turbine power response to a changing atmospheric environment. Here, we compare a large suite of atmospheric variables derived from tower measurements to those taken from lidar to determine if remote sensing devices add any competitive advantage over tower measurements alone to predict turbine power response.

  4. Metrology Optical Power Budgeting in SIM Using Statistical Analysis Techniques

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kuan, Gary M

    2008-01-01

    The Space Interferometry Mission (SIM) is a space-based stellar interferometry instrument, consisting of up to three interferometers, which will be capable of micro-arc second resolution. Alignment knowledge of the three interferometer baselines requires a three-dimensional, 14-leg truss with each leg being monitored by an external metrology gauge. In addition, each of the three interferometers requires an internal metrology gauge to monitor the optical path length differences between the two sides. Both external and internal metrology gauges are interferometry based, operating at a wavelength of 1319 nanometers. Each gauge has fiber inputs delivering measurement and local oscillator (LO) power, split into probe-LO and reference-LO beam pairs. These beams experience power loss due to a variety of mechanisms including, but not restricted to, design efficiency, material attenuation, element misalignment, diffraction, and coupling efficiency. Since the attenuation due to these sources may degrade over time, an accounting of the range of expected attenuation is needed so an optical power margin can be book kept. A method of statistical optical power analysis and budgeting, based on a technique developed for deep space RF telecommunications, is described in this paper and provides a numerical confidence level for having sufficient optical power relative to mission metrology performance requirements.

  5. Error, Power, and Blind Sentinels: The Statistics of Seagrass Monitoring

    PubMed Central

    Schultz, Stewart T.; Kruschel, Claudia; Bakran-Petricioli, Tatjana; Petricioli, Donat

    2015-01-01

    We derive statistical properties of standard methods for monitoring of habitat cover worldwide, and criticize them in the context of mandated seagrass monitoring programs, as exemplified by Posidonia oceanica in the Mediterranean Sea. We report the novel result that cartographic methods with non-trivial classification errors are generally incapable of reliably detecting habitat cover losses less than about 30 to 50%, and the field labor required to increase their precision can be orders of magnitude higher than that required to estimate habitat loss directly in a field campaign. We derive a universal utility threshold of classification error in habitat maps that represents the minimum habitat map accuracy above which direct methods are superior. Widespread government reliance on blind-sentinel methods for monitoring seafloor can obscure the gradual and currently ongoing losses of benthic resources until the time has long passed for meaningful management intervention. We find two classes of methods with very high statistical power for detecting small habitat cover losses: 1) fixed-plot direct methods, which are over 100 times as efficient as direct random-plot methods in a variable habitat mosaic; and 2) remote methods with very low classification error such as geospatial underwater videography, which is an emerging, low-cost, non-destructive method for documenting small changes at millimeter visual resolution. General adoption of these methods and their further development will require a fundamental cultural change in conservation and management bodies towards the recognition and promotion of requirements of minimal statistical power and precision in the development of international goals for monitoring these valuable resources and the ecological services they provide. PMID:26367863

  6. In vivo Comet assay--statistical analysis and power calculations of mice testicular cells.

    PubMed

    Hansen, Merete Kjær; Sharma, Anoop Kumar; Dybdahl, Marianne; Boberg, Julie; Kulahci, Murat

    2014-11-01

    The in vivo Comet assay is a sensitive method for evaluating DNA damage. A recurrent concern is how to analyze the data appropriately and efficiently. A popular approach is to summarize the raw data into a summary statistic prior to the statistical analysis. However, consensus on which summary statistic to use has yet to be reached. Another important consideration concerns the assessment of proper sample sizes in the design of Comet assay studies. This study aims to identify a statistic suitably summarizing the % tail DNA of mice testicular samples in Comet assay studies. A second aim is to provide curves for this statistic outlining the number of animals and gels to use. The current study was based on 11 compounds administered via oral gavage in three doses to male mice: CAS no. 110-26-9, CAS no. 512-56-1, CAS no. 111873-33-7, CAS no. 79-94-7, CAS no. 115-96-8, CAS no. 598-55-0, CAS no. 636-97-5, CAS no. 85-28-9, CAS no. 13674-87-8, CAS no. 43100-38-5 and CAS no. 60965-26-6. Testicular cells were examined using the alkaline version of the Comet assay and the DNA damage was quantified as % tail DNA using a fully automatic scoring system. From the raw data 23 summary statistics were examined. A linear mixed-effects model was fitted to the summarized data and the estimated variance components were used to generate power curves as a function of sample size. The statistic that most appropriately summarized the within-sample distributions was the median of the log-transformed data, as it most consistently conformed to the assumptions of the statistical model. Power curves for 1.5-, 2-, and 2.5-fold changes of the highest dose group compared to the control group when 50 and 100 cells were scored per gel are provided to aid in the design of future Comet assay studies on testicular cells. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Tests of Mediation: Paradoxical Decline in Statistical Power as a Function of Mediator Collinearity

    PubMed Central

    Beasley, T. Mark

    2013-01-01

    Increasing the correlation between the independent variable and the mediator (a coefficient) increases the effect size (ab) for mediation analysis; however, increasing a by definition increases collinearity in mediation models. As a result, the standard error of product tests increase. The variance inflation due to increases in a at some point outweighs the increase of the effect size (ab) and results in a loss of statistical power. This phenomenon also occurs with nonparametric bootstrapping approaches because the variance of the bootstrap distribution of ab approximates the variance expected from normal theory. Both variances increase dramatically when a exceeds the b coefficient, thus explaining the power decline with increases in a. Implications for statistical analysis and applied researchers are discussed. PMID:24954952

  8. Prevalence of diseases and statistical power of the Japan Nurses' Health Study.

    PubMed

    Fujita, Toshiharu; Hayashi, Kunihiko; Katanoda, Kota; Matsumura, Yasuhiro; Lee, Jung Su; Takagi, Hirofumi; Suzuki, Shosuke; Mizunuma, Hideki; Aso, Takeshi

    2007-10-01

    The Japan Nurses' Health Study (JNHS) is a long-term, large-scale cohort study investigating the effects of various lifestyle factors and healthcare habits on the health of Japanese women. Based on currently limited statistical data regarding the incidence of disease among Japanese women, our initial sample size was tentatively set at 50,000 during the design phase. The actual number of women who agreed to participate in follow-up surveys was approximately 18,000. Taking into account the actual sample size and new information on disease frequency obtained during the baseline component, we established the prevalence of past diagnoses of target diseases, predicted their incidence, and calculated the statistical power for JNHS follow-up surveys. For all diseases except ovarian cancer, the prevalence of a past diagnosis increased markedly with age, and incidence rates could be predicted based on the degree of increase in prevalence between two adjacent 5-yr age groups. The predicted incidence rate for uterine myoma, hypercholesterolemia, and hypertension was > or =3.0 (per 1,000 women, per year), while the rate of thyroid disease, hepatitis, gallstone disease, and benign breast tumor was predicted to be > or =1.0. For these diseases, the statistical power to detect risk factors with a relative risk of 1.5 or more within ten years, was 70% or higher.

  9. Imprints of magnetic power and helicity spectra on radio polarimetry statistics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Junklewitz, H.; Enßlin, T. A.

    2011-06-01

    The statistical properties of turbulent magnetic fields in radio-synchrotron sources should be imprinted on the statistics of polarimetric observables. In search of these imprints, i.e. characteristic modifications of the polarimetry statistics caused by magnetic field properties, we calculate correlation and cross-correlation functions from a set of observables that contain total intensity I, polarized intensity P, and Faraday depth φ. The correlation functions are evaluated for all combinations of observables up to fourth order in magnetic field B. We derive these analytically as far as possible and from first principles using only some basic assumptions, such as Gaussian statistics for the underlying magnetic field in the observed region and statistical homogeneity. We further assume some simplifications to reduce the complexity of the calculations, because for a start we were interested in a proof of concept. Using this statistical approach, we show that it is possible to gain information about the helical part of the magnetic power spectrum via the correlation functions < P(kperp) φ(k'_{perp)φ(k''perp)>B} and < I(kperp) φ(k'_{perp)φ(k''perp)>B}. Using this insight, we construct an easy-to-use test for helicity called LITMUS (Local Inference Test for Magnetic fields which Uncovers heliceS), which gives a spectrally integrated measure of helicity. For now, all calculations are given in a Faraday-free case, but set up so that Faraday rotational effects can be included later.

  10. The Statistical Power of the Cluster Randomized Block Design with Matched Pairs--A Simulation Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dong, Nianbo; Lipsey, Mark

    2010-01-01

    This study uses simulation techniques to examine the statistical power of the group- randomized design and the matched-pair (MP) randomized block design under various parameter combinations. Both nearest neighbor matching and random matching are used for the MP design. The power of each design for any parameter combination was calculated from…

  11. The MAX Statistic is Less Powerful for Genome Wide Association Studies Under Most Alternative Hypotheses.

    PubMed

    Shifflett, Benjamin; Huang, Rong; Edland, Steven D

    2017-01-01

    Genotypic association studies are prone to inflated type I error rates if multiple hypothesis testing is performed, e.g., sequentially testing for recessive, multiplicative, and dominant risk. Alternatives to multiple hypothesis testing include the model independent genotypic χ 2 test, the efficiency robust MAX statistic, which corrects for multiple comparisons but with some loss of power, or a single Armitage test for multiplicative trend, which has optimal power when the multiplicative model holds but with some loss of power when dominant or recessive models underlie the genetic association. We used Monte Carlo simulations to describe the relative performance of these three approaches under a range of scenarios. All three approaches maintained their nominal type I error rates. The genotypic χ 2 and MAX statistics were more powerful when testing a strictly recessive genetic effect or when testing a dominant effect when the allele frequency was high. The Armitage test for multiplicative trend was most powerful for the broad range of scenarios where heterozygote risk is intermediate between recessive and dominant risk. Moreover, all tests had limited power to detect recessive genetic risk unless the sample size was large, and conversely all tests were relatively well powered to detect dominant risk. Taken together, these results suggest the general utility of the multiplicative trend test when the underlying genetic model is unknown.

  12. Standardized seawater rearing of chinook salmon smolts to evaluate hatchery practices showed low statistical power

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Palmisano, Aldo N.; Elder, N.E.

    2001-01-01

    We examined, under standardized conditions, seawater survival of chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha at the smolt stage to evaluate the experimental hatchery practices applied to their rearing. The experimental rearing practices included rearing fish at different densities; attempting to control bacterial kidney disease with broodstock segregation, erythromycin injection, and an experimental diet; rearing fish on different water sources; and freeze branding the fish. After application of experimental rearing practices in hatcheries, smolts were transported to a rearing facility for about 2-3 months of seawater rearing. Of 16 experiments, 4 yielded statistically significant differences in seawater survival. In general we found that high variability among replicates, plus the low numbers of replicates available, resulted in low statistical power. We recommend including four or five replicates and using ?? = 0.10 in 1-tailed tests of hatchery experiments to try to increase the statistical power to 0.80.

  13. Statistical modeling of an integrated boiler for coal fired thermal power plant.

    PubMed

    Chandrasekharan, Sreepradha; Panda, Rames Chandra; Swaminathan, Bhuvaneswari Natrajan

    2017-06-01

    The coal fired thermal power plants plays major role in the power production in the world as they are available in abundance. Many of the existing power plants are based on the subcritical technology which can produce power with the efficiency of around 33%. But the newer plants are built on either supercritical or ultra-supercritical technology whose efficiency can be up to 50%. Main objective of the work is to enhance the efficiency of the existing subcritical power plants to compensate for the increasing demand. For achieving the objective, the statistical modeling of the boiler units such as economizer, drum and the superheater are initially carried out. The effectiveness of the developed models is tested using analysis methods like R 2 analysis and ANOVA (Analysis of Variance). The dependability of the process variable (temperature) on different manipulated variables is analyzed in the paper. Validations of the model are provided with their error analysis. Response surface methodology (RSM) supported by DOE (design of experiments) are implemented to optimize the operating parameters. Individual models along with the integrated model are used to study and design the predictive control of the coal-fired thermal power plant.

  14. Reliability and statistical power analysis of cortical and subcortical FreeSurfer metrics in a large sample of healthy elderly.

    PubMed

    Liem, Franziskus; Mérillat, Susan; Bezzola, Ladina; Hirsiger, Sarah; Philipp, Michel; Madhyastha, Tara; Jäncke, Lutz

    2015-03-01

    FreeSurfer is a tool to quantify cortical and subcortical brain anatomy automatically and noninvasively. Previous studies have reported reliability and statistical power analyses in relatively small samples or only selected one aspect of brain anatomy. Here, we investigated reliability and statistical power of cortical thickness, surface area, volume, and the volume of subcortical structures in a large sample (N=189) of healthy elderly subjects (64+ years). Reliability (intraclass correlation coefficient) of cortical and subcortical parameters is generally high (cortical: ICCs>0.87, subcortical: ICCs>0.95). Surface-based smoothing increases reliability of cortical thickness maps, while it decreases reliability of cortical surface area and volume. Nevertheless, statistical power of all measures benefits from smoothing. When aiming to detect a 10% difference between groups, the number of subjects required to test effects with sufficient power over the entire cortex varies between cortical measures (cortical thickness: N=39, surface area: N=21, volume: N=81; 10mm smoothing, power=0.8, α=0.05). For subcortical regions this number is between 16 and 76 subjects, depending on the region. We also demonstrate the advantage of within-subject designs over between-subject designs. Furthermore, we publicly provide a tool that allows researchers to perform a priori power analysis and sensitivity analysis to help evaluate previously published studies and to design future studies with sufficient statistical power. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Statistical power for detecting trends with applications to seabird monitoring

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hatch, Shyla A.

    2003-01-01

    Power analysis is helpful in defining goals for ecological monitoring and evaluating the performance of ongoing efforts. I examined detection standards proposed for population monitoring of seabirds using two programs (MONITOR and TRENDS) specially designed for power analysis of trend data. Neither program models within- and among-years components of variance explicitly and independently, thus an error term that incorporates both components is an essential input. Residual variation in seabird counts consisted of day-to-day variation within years and unexplained variation among years in approximately equal parts. The appropriate measure of error for power analysis is the standard error of estimation (S.E.est) from a regression of annual means against year. Replicate counts within years are helpful in minimizing S.E.est but should not be treated as independent samples for estimating power to detect trends. Other issues include a choice of assumptions about variance structure and selection of an exponential or linear model of population change. Seabird count data are characterized by strong correlations between S.D. and mean, thus a constant CV model is appropriate for power calculations. Time series were fit about equally well with exponential or linear models, but log transformation ensures equal variances over time, a basic assumption of regression analysis. Using sample data from seabird monitoring in Alaska, I computed the number of years required (with annual censusing) to detect trends of -1.4% per year (50% decline in 50 years) and -2.7% per year (50% decline in 25 years). At ??=0.05 and a desired power of 0.9, estimated study intervals ranged from 11 to 69 years depending on species, trend, software, and study design. Power to detect a negative trend of 6.7% per year (50% decline in 10 years) is suggested as an alternative standard for seabird monitoring that achieves a reasonable match between statistical and biological significance.

  16. Lack of maintenance of shortwave diathermy equipment has a negative impact on power output.

    PubMed

    Guirro, Rinaldo Roberto de Jesus; Guirro, Elaine Caldeira de Oliveira; Alves de Sousa, Natanael Teixeira

    2014-04-01

    Although shortwave diathermy has been widely used by physiotherapists, there are a few studies assessing the performance of the equipment in use. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the procedures adopted by physiotherapists as users of shortwave diathermy continuous (CSWD), as well as to measure the power output and frequency of CSWD equipment. [Subjects and Methods] Twenty-three physical therapists were interviewed and 23 CSWD equipment were evaluated. Admeasurement was carried out by using a standard phantom to simulate the electrode-skin distance, which ranged from 0.5 to 3.0 cm. Data analysis was performed by using descriptive statistics, ANOVA, and a post-hoc Tukey's test or Pearson's correlation coefficient. [Results] The questionnaires showed that 48% of the interviewees use the correct electrode-skin distance, 70% use a single electrical outlet, and 35% use a grounded electrical outlet, and that 48% of the physiotherapy tables and 61% of the plinths were made of wood. However, only 13% of the interviewees perform yearly preventive maintenance. The highest power (95.56 W) was achieved at electrode-skin distances ranging from 1.0 to 1.5 cm, with distances of 2.5 cm and 3.0 cm being null in four and eight equipment, respectively. There was a negative correlation between power output and electrode-skin distance as well as between power output and purchase date. [Conclusion] The physiotherapists involved in this study had inadequate knowledge about the correct use of CSWD equipment, which may adversely affect its performance and patient safety.

  17. On the Power Functions of Test Statistics in Order Restricted Inference.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1984-10-01

    California-Davis Actuarial Science Davis, California 95616 The University of Iowa Iowa City, Iowa 52242 *F. T. Wright Department of Mathematics and...34 SUMMARY --We study the power functions of both the likelihood ratio and con- trast statistics for detecting a totally ordered trend in a collection...samples from normal populations, Bartholomew (1959 a,b; 1961) studied the likelihood ratio tests (LRTs) for H0 versus H -H assuming in one case that

  18. The case for increasing the statistical power of eddy covariance ecosystem studies: why, where and how?

    PubMed

    Hill, Timothy; Chocholek, Melanie; Clement, Robert

    2017-06-01

    Eddy covariance (EC) continues to provide invaluable insights into the dynamics of Earth's surface processes. However, despite its many strengths, spatial replication of EC at the ecosystem scale is rare. High equipment costs are likely to be partially responsible. This contributes to the low sampling, and even lower replication, of ecoregions in Africa, Oceania (excluding Australia) and South America. The level of replication matters as it directly affects statistical power. While the ergodicity of turbulence and temporal replication allow an EC tower to provide statistically robust flux estimates for its footprint, these principles do not extend to larger ecosystem scales. Despite the challenge of spatially replicating EC, it is clearly of interest to be able to use EC to provide statistically robust flux estimates for larger areas. We ask: How much spatial replication of EC is required for statistical confidence in our flux estimates of an ecosystem? We provide the reader with tools to estimate the number of EC towers needed to achieve a given statistical power. We show that for a typical ecosystem, around four EC towers are needed to have 95% statistical confidence that the annual flux of an ecosystem is nonzero. Furthermore, if the true flux is small relative to instrument noise and spatial variability, the number of towers needed can rise dramatically. We discuss approaches for improving statistical power and describe one solution: an inexpensive EC system that could help by making spatial replication more affordable. However, we note that diverting limited resources from other key measurements in order to allow spatial replication may not be optimal, and a balance needs to be struck. While individual EC towers are well suited to providing fluxes from the flux footprint, we emphasize that spatial replication is essential for statistically robust fluxes if a wider ecosystem is being studied. © 2016 The Authors Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley

  19. Lack of power enhances visual perceptual discrimination.

    PubMed

    Weick, Mario; Guinote, Ana; Wilkinson, David

    2011-09-01

    Powerless individuals face much challenge and uncertainty. As a consequence, they are highly vigilant and closely scrutinize their social environments. The aim of the present research was to determine whether these qualities enhance performance in more basic cognitive tasks involving simple visual feature discrimination. To test this hypothesis, participants performed a series of perceptual matching and search tasks involving colour, texture, and size discrimination. As predicted, those primed with powerlessness generated shorter reaction times and made fewer eye movements than either powerful or control participants. The results indicate that the heightened vigilance shown by powerless individuals is associated with an advantage in performing simple types of psychophysical discrimination. These findings highlight, for the first time, an underlying competency in perceptual cognition that sets powerless individuals above their powerful counterparts, an advantage that may reflect functional adaptation to the environmental challenge and uncertainty that they face. © 2011 Canadian Psychological Association

  20. Detecting temporal change in freshwater fisheries surveys: statistical power and the important linkages between management questions and monitoring objectives

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wagner, Tyler; Irwin, Brian J.; James R. Bence,; Daniel B. Hayes,

    2016-01-01

    Monitoring to detect temporal trends in biological and habitat indices is a critical component of fisheries management. Thus, it is important that management objectives are linked to monitoring objectives. This linkage requires a definition of what constitutes a management-relevant “temporal trend.” It is also important to develop expectations for the amount of time required to detect a trend (i.e., statistical power) and for choosing an appropriate statistical model for analysis. We provide an overview of temporal trends commonly encountered in fisheries management, review published studies that evaluated statistical power of long-term trend detection, and illustrate dynamic linear models in a Bayesian context, as an additional analytical approach focused on shorter term change. We show that monitoring programs generally have low statistical power for detecting linear temporal trends and argue that often management should be focused on different definitions of trends, some of which can be better addressed by alternative analytical approaches.

  1. The statistical power to detect cross-scale interactions at macroscales

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wagner, Tyler; Fergus, C. Emi; Stow, Craig A.; Cheruvelil, Kendra S.; Soranno, Patricia A.

    2016-01-01

    Macroscale studies of ecological phenomena are increasingly common because stressors such as climate and land-use change operate at large spatial and temporal scales. Cross-scale interactions (CSIs), where ecological processes operating at one spatial or temporal scale interact with processes operating at another scale, have been documented in a variety of ecosystems and contribute to complex system dynamics. However, studies investigating CSIs are often dependent on compiling multiple data sets from different sources to create multithematic, multiscaled data sets, which results in structurally complex, and sometimes incomplete data sets. The statistical power to detect CSIs needs to be evaluated because of their importance and the challenge of quantifying CSIs using data sets with complex structures and missing observations. We studied this problem using a spatially hierarchical model that measures CSIs between regional agriculture and its effects on the relationship between lake nutrients and lake productivity. We used an existing large multithematic, multiscaled database, LAke multiscaled GeOSpatial, and temporal database (LAGOS), to parameterize the power analysis simulations. We found that the power to detect CSIs was more strongly related to the number of regions in the study rather than the number of lakes nested within each region. CSI power analyses will not only help ecologists design large-scale studies aimed at detecting CSIs, but will also focus attention on CSI effect sizes and the degree to which they are ecologically relevant and detectable with large data sets.

  2. Statistical power comparisons at 3T and 7T with a GO / NOGO task.

    PubMed

    Torrisi, Salvatore; Chen, Gang; Glen, Daniel; Bandettini, Peter A; Baker, Chris I; Reynolds, Richard; Yen-Ting Liu, Jeffrey; Leshin, Joseph; Balderston, Nicholas; Grillon, Christian; Ernst, Monique

    2018-07-15

    The field of cognitive neuroscience is weighing evidence about whether to move from standard field strength to ultra-high field (UHF). The present study contributes to the evidence by comparing a cognitive neuroscience paradigm at 3 Tesla (3T) and 7 Tesla (7T). The goal was to test and demonstrate the practical effects of field strength on a standard GO/NOGO task using accessible preprocessing and analysis tools. Two independent matched healthy samples (N = 31 each) were analyzed at 3T and 7T. Results show gains at 7T in statistical strength, the detection of smaller effects and group-level power. With an increased availability of UHF scanners, these gains may be exploited by cognitive neuroscientists and other neuroimaging researchers to develop more efficient or comprehensive experimental designs and, given the same sample size, achieve greater statistical power at 7T. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  3. Power flow as a complement to statistical energy analysis and finite element analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cuschieri, J. M.

    1987-01-01

    Present methods of analysis of the structural response and the structure-borne transmission of vibrational energy use either finite element (FE) techniques or statistical energy analysis (SEA) methods. The FE methods are a very useful tool at low frequencies where the number of resonances involved in the analysis is rather small. On the other hand SEA methods can predict with acceptable accuracy the response and energy transmission between coupled structures at relatively high frequencies where the structural modal density is high and a statistical approach is the appropriate solution. In the mid-frequency range, a relatively large number of resonances exist which make finite element method too costly. On the other hand SEA methods can only predict an average level form. In this mid-frequency range a possible alternative is to use power flow techniques, where the input and flow of vibrational energy to excited and coupled structural components can be expressed in terms of input and transfer mobilities. This power flow technique can be extended from low to high frequencies and this can be integrated with established FE models at low frequencies and SEA models at high frequencies to form a verification of the method. This method of structural analysis using power flo and mobility methods, and its integration with SEA and FE analysis is applied to the case of two thin beams joined together at right angles.

  4. Indoor Soiling Method and Outdoor Statistical Risk Analysis of Photovoltaic Power Plants

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rajasekar, Vidyashree

    This is a two-part thesis. Part 1 presents an approach for working towards the development of a standardized artificial soiling method for laminated photovoltaic (PV) cells or mini-modules. Construction of an artificial chamber to maintain controlled environmental conditions and components/chemicals used in artificial soil formulation is briefly explained. Both poly-Si mini-modules and a single cell mono-Si coupons were soiled and characterization tests such as I-V, reflectance and quantum efficiency (QE) were carried out on both soiled, and cleaned coupons. From the results obtained, poly-Si mini-modules proved to be a good measure of soil uniformity, as any non-uniformity present would not result in a smooth curve during I-V measurements. The challenges faced while executing reflectance and QE characterization tests on poly-Si due to smaller size cells was eliminated on the mono-Si coupons with large cells to obtain highly repeatable measurements. This study indicates that the reflectance measurements between 600-700 nm wavelengths can be used as a direct measure of soil density on the modules. Part 2 determines the most dominant failure modes of field aged PV modules using experimental data obtained in the field and statistical analysis, FMECA (Failure Mode, Effect, and Criticality Analysis). The failure and degradation modes of about 744 poly-Si glass/polymer frameless modules fielded for 18 years under the cold-dry climate of New York was evaluated. Defect chart, degradation rates (both string and module levels) and safety map were generated using the field measured data. A statistical reliability tool, FMECA that uses Risk Priority Number (RPN) is used to determine the dominant failure or degradation modes in the strings and modules by means of ranking and prioritizing the modes. This study on PV power plants considers all the failure and degradation modes from both safety and performance perspectives. The indoor and outdoor soiling studies were jointly

  5. Evaluating the statistical power of DNA-based identification, exemplified by 'The missing grandchildren of Argentina'.

    PubMed

    Kling, Daniel; Egeland, Thore; Piñero, Mariana Herrera; Vigeland, Magnus Dehli

    2017-11-01

    Methods and implementations of DNA-based identification are well established in several forensic contexts. However, assessing the statistical power of these methods has been largely overlooked, except in the simplest cases. In this paper we outline general methods for such power evaluation, and apply them to a large set of family reunification cases, where the objective is to decide whether a person of interest (POI) is identical to the missing person (MP) in a family, based on the DNA profile of the POI and available family members. As such, this application closely resembles database searching and disaster victim identification (DVI). If parents or children of the MP are available, they will typically provide sufficient statistical evidence to settle the case. However, if one must resort to more distant relatives, it is not a priori obvious that a reliable conclusion is likely to be reached. In these cases power evaluation can be highly valuable, for instance in the recruitment of additional family members. To assess the power in an identification case, we advocate the combined use of two statistics: the Probability of Exclusion, and the Probability of Exceedance. The former is the probability that the genotypes of a random, unrelated person are incompatible with the available family data. If this is close to 1, it is likely that a conclusion will be achieved regarding general relatedness, but not necessarily the specific relationship. To evaluate the ability to recognize a true match, we use simulations to estimate exceedance probabilities, i.e. the probability that the likelihood ratio will exceed a given threshold, assuming that the POI is indeed the MP. All simulations are done conditionally on available family data. Such conditional simulations have a long history in medical linkage analysis, but to our knowledge this is the first systematic forensic genetics application. Also, for forensic markers mutations cannot be ignored and therefore current models and

  6. A power comparison of generalized additive models and the spatial scan statistic in a case-control setting

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background A common, important problem in spatial epidemiology is measuring and identifying variation in disease risk across a study region. In application of statistical methods, the problem has two parts. First, spatial variation in risk must be detected across the study region and, second, areas of increased or decreased risk must be correctly identified. The location of such areas may give clues to environmental sources of exposure and disease etiology. One statistical method applicable in spatial epidemiologic settings is a generalized additive model (GAM) which can be applied with a bivariate LOESS smoother to account for geographic location as a possible predictor of disease status. A natural hypothesis when applying this method is whether residential location of subjects is associated with the outcome, i.e. is the smoothing term necessary? Permutation tests are a reasonable hypothesis testing method and provide adequate power under a simple alternative hypothesis. These tests have yet to be compared to other spatial statistics. Results This research uses simulated point data generated under three alternative hypotheses to evaluate the properties of the permutation methods and compare them to the popular spatial scan statistic in a case-control setting. Case 1 was a single circular cluster centered in a circular study region. The spatial scan statistic had the highest power though the GAM method estimates did not fall far behind. Case 2 was a single point source located at the center of a circular cluster and Case 3 was a line source at the center of the horizontal axis of a square study region. Each had linearly decreasing logodds with distance from the point. The GAM methods outperformed the scan statistic in Cases 2 and 3. Comparing sensitivity, measured as the proportion of the exposure source correctly identified as high or low risk, the GAM methods outperformed the scan statistic in all three Cases. Conclusions The GAM permutation testing methods

  7. A power comparison of generalized additive models and the spatial scan statistic in a case-control setting.

    PubMed

    Young, Robin L; Weinberg, Janice; Vieira, Verónica; Ozonoff, Al; Webster, Thomas F

    2010-07-19

    A common, important problem in spatial epidemiology is measuring and identifying variation in disease risk across a study region. In application of statistical methods, the problem has two parts. First, spatial variation in risk must be detected across the study region and, second, areas of increased or decreased risk must be correctly identified. The location of such areas may give clues to environmental sources of exposure and disease etiology. One statistical method applicable in spatial epidemiologic settings is a generalized additive model (GAM) which can be applied with a bivariate LOESS smoother to account for geographic location as a possible predictor of disease status. A natural hypothesis when applying this method is whether residential location of subjects is associated with the outcome, i.e. is the smoothing term necessary? Permutation tests are a reasonable hypothesis testing method and provide adequate power under a simple alternative hypothesis. These tests have yet to be compared to other spatial statistics. This research uses simulated point data generated under three alternative hypotheses to evaluate the properties of the permutation methods and compare them to the popular spatial scan statistic in a case-control setting. Case 1 was a single circular cluster centered in a circular study region. The spatial scan statistic had the highest power though the GAM method estimates did not fall far behind. Case 2 was a single point source located at the center of a circular cluster and Case 3 was a line source at the center of the horizontal axis of a square study region. Each had linearly decreasing logodds with distance from the point. The GAM methods outperformed the scan statistic in Cases 2 and 3. Comparing sensitivity, measured as the proportion of the exposure source correctly identified as high or low risk, the GAM methods outperformed the scan statistic in all three Cases. The GAM permutation testing methods provide a regression

  8. Survey of editors and reviewers of high-impact psychology journals: statistical and research design problems in submitted manuscripts.

    PubMed

    Harris, Alex; Reeder, Rachelle; Hyun, Jenny

    2011-01-01

    The authors surveyed 21 editors and reviewers from major psychology journals to identify and describe the statistical and design errors they encounter most often and to get their advice regarding prevention of these problems. Content analysis of the text responses revealed themes in 3 major areas: (a) problems with research design and reporting (e.g., lack of an a priori power analysis, lack of congruence between research questions and study design/analysis, failure to adequately describe statistical procedures); (b) inappropriate data analysis (e.g., improper use of analysis of variance, too many statistical tests without adjustments, inadequate strategy for addressing missing data); and (c) misinterpretation of results. If researchers attended to these common methodological and analytic issues, the scientific quality of manuscripts submitted to high-impact psychology journals might be significantly improved.

  9. Statistical interpretation of transient current power-law decay in colloidal quantum dot arrays

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sibatov, R. T.

    2011-08-01

    A new statistical model of the charge transport in colloidal quantum dot arrays is proposed. It takes into account Coulomb blockade forbidding multiple occupancy of nanocrystals and the influence of energetic disorder of interdot space. The model explains power-law current transients and the presence of the memory effect. The fractional differential analogue of the Ohm law is found phenomenologically for nanocrystal arrays. The model combines ideas that were considered as conflicting by other authors: the Scher-Montroll idea about the power-law distribution of waiting times in localized states for disordered semiconductors is applied taking into account Coulomb blockade; Novikov's condition about the asymptotic power-law distribution of time intervals between successful current pulses in conduction channels is fulfilled; and the carrier injection blocking predicted by Ginger and Greenham (2000 J. Appl. Phys. 87 1361) takes place.

  10. Statistical power calculations for mixed pharmacokinetic study designs using a population approach.

    PubMed

    Kloprogge, Frank; Simpson, Julie A; Day, Nicholas P J; White, Nicholas J; Tarning, Joel

    2014-09-01

    Simultaneous modelling of dense and sparse pharmacokinetic data is possible with a population approach. To determine the number of individuals required to detect the effect of a covariate, simulation-based power calculation methodologies can be employed. The Monte Carlo Mapped Power method (a simulation-based power calculation methodology using the likelihood ratio test) was extended in the current study to perform sample size calculations for mixed pharmacokinetic studies (i.e. both sparse and dense data collection). A workflow guiding an easy and straightforward pharmacokinetic study design, considering also the cost-effectiveness of alternative study designs, was used in this analysis. Initially, data were simulated for a hypothetical drug and then for the anti-malarial drug, dihydroartemisinin. Two datasets (sampling design A: dense; sampling design B: sparse) were simulated using a pharmacokinetic model that included a binary covariate effect and subsequently re-estimated using (1) the same model and (2) a model not including the covariate effect in NONMEM 7.2. Power calculations were performed for varying numbers of patients with sampling designs A and B. Study designs with statistical power >80% were selected and further evaluated for cost-effectiveness. The simulation studies of the hypothetical drug and the anti-malarial drug dihydroartemisinin demonstrated that the simulation-based power calculation methodology, based on the Monte Carlo Mapped Power method, can be utilised to evaluate and determine the sample size of mixed (part sparsely and part densely sampled) study designs. The developed method can contribute to the design of robust and efficient pharmacokinetic studies.

  11. How often should we expect to be wrong? Statistical power, P values, and the expected prevalence of false discoveries.

    PubMed

    Marino, Michael J

    2018-05-01

    There is a clear perception in the literature that there is a crisis in reproducibility in the biomedical sciences. Many underlying factors contributing to the prevalence of irreproducible results have been highlighted with a focus on poor design and execution of experiments along with the misuse of statistics. While these factors certainly contribute to irreproducibility, relatively little attention outside of the specialized statistical literature has focused on the expected prevalence of false discoveries under idealized circumstances. In other words, when everything is done correctly, how often should we expect to be wrong? Using a simple simulation of an idealized experiment, it is possible to show the central role of sample size and the related quantity of statistical power in determining the false discovery rate, and in accurate estimation of effect size. According to our calculations, based on current practice many subfields of biomedical science may expect their discoveries to be false at least 25% of the time, and the only viable course to correct this is to require the reporting of statistical power and a minimum of 80% power (1 - β = 0.80) for all studies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Powerful Inference with the D-Statistic on Low-Coverage Whole-Genome Data.

    PubMed

    Soraggi, Samuele; Wiuf, Carsten; Albrechtsen, Anders

    2018-02-02

    The detection of ancient gene flow between human populations is an important issue in population genetics. A common tool for detecting ancient admixture events is the D-statistic. The D-statistic is based on the hypothesis of a genetic relationship that involves four populations, whose correctness is assessed by evaluating specific coincidences of alleles between the groups. When working with high-throughput sequencing data, calling genotypes accurately is not always possible; therefore, the D-statistic currently samples a single base from the reads of one individual per population. This implies ignoring much of the information in the data, an issue especially striking in the case of ancient genomes. We provide a significant improvement to overcome the problems of the D-statistic by considering all reads from multiple individuals in each population. We also apply type-specific error correction to combat the problems of sequencing errors, and show a way to correct for introgression from an external population that is not part of the supposed genetic relationship, and how this leads to an estimate of the admixture rate. We prove that the D-statistic is approximated by a standard normal distribution. Furthermore, we show that our method outperforms the traditional D-statistic in detecting admixtures. The power gain is most pronounced for low and medium sequencing depth (1-10×), and performances are as good as with perfectly called genotypes at a sequencing depth of 2×. We show the reliability of error correction in scenarios with simulated errors and ancient data, and correct for introgression in known scenarios to estimate the admixture rates. Copyright © 2018 Soraggi et al.

  13. Powerful Inference with the D-Statistic on Low-Coverage Whole-Genome Data

    PubMed Central

    Soraggi, Samuele; Wiuf, Carsten; Albrechtsen, Anders

    2017-01-01

    The detection of ancient gene flow between human populations is an important issue in population genetics. A common tool for detecting ancient admixture events is the D-statistic. The D-statistic is based on the hypothesis of a genetic relationship that involves four populations, whose correctness is assessed by evaluating specific coincidences of alleles between the groups. When working with high-throughput sequencing data, calling genotypes accurately is not always possible; therefore, the D-statistic currently samples a single base from the reads of one individual per population. This implies ignoring much of the information in the data, an issue especially striking in the case of ancient genomes. We provide a significant improvement to overcome the problems of the D-statistic by considering all reads from multiple individuals in each population. We also apply type-specific error correction to combat the problems of sequencing errors, and show a way to correct for introgression from an external population that is not part of the supposed genetic relationship, and how this leads to an estimate of the admixture rate. We prove that the D-statistic is approximated by a standard normal distribution. Furthermore, we show that our method outperforms the traditional D-statistic in detecting admixtures. The power gain is most pronounced for low and medium sequencing depth (1–10×), and performances are as good as with perfectly called genotypes at a sequencing depth of 2×. We show the reliability of error correction in scenarios with simulated errors and ancient data, and correct for introgression in known scenarios to estimate the admixture rates. PMID:29196497

  14. Statistical learning: A powerful mechanism that operates by mere exposure

    PubMed Central

    Aslin, Richard N.

    2015-01-01

    How do infants learn so rapidly and with little apparent effort? In 1996, Saffran, Aslin, and Newport reported that 8-month-old human infants could learn the underlying temporal structure of a stream of speech syllables after only two minutes of passive listening. This demonstration of what was called statistical learning, involving no instruction, reinforcement, or feedback, led to dozens of confirmations of this powerful mechanism of implicit learning in a variety of modalities, domains, and species. These findings reveal that infants are not nearly as dependent on explicit forms of instruction as we might have assumed from studies of learning in which children or adults are taught facts such as math or problem solving skills. Instead, at least in some domains, infants soak up the information around them by mere exposure. Learning and development in these domains thus appear to occur automatically and with little active involvement by an instructor (parent or teacher). The details of this statistical learning mechanism are discussed, including how exposure to specific types of information can, under some circumstances, generalize to never-before-observed information, thereby enabling transfer of learning. PMID:27906526

  15. Power analysis as a tool to identify statistically informative indicators for monitoring coral reef disturbances.

    PubMed

    Van Wynsberge, Simon; Gilbert, Antoine; Guillemot, Nicolas; Heintz, Tom; Tremblay-Boyer, Laura

    2017-07-01

    Extensive biological field surveys are costly and time consuming. To optimize sampling and ensure regular monitoring on the long term, identifying informative indicators of anthropogenic disturbances is a priority. In this study, we used 1800 candidate indicators by combining metrics measured from coral, fish, and macro-invertebrate assemblages surveyed from 2006 to 2012 in the vicinity of an ongoing mining project in the Voh-Koné-Pouembout lagoon, New Caledonia. We performed a power analysis to identify a subset of indicators which would best discriminate temporal changes due to a simulated chronic anthropogenic impact. Only 4% of tested indicators were likely to detect a 10% annual decrease of values with sufficient power (>0.80). Corals generally exerted higher statistical power than macro-invertebrates and fishes because of lower natural variability and higher occurrence. For the same reasons, higher taxonomic ranks provided higher power than lower taxonomic ranks. Nevertheless, a number of families of common sedentary or sessile macro-invertebrates and fishes also performed well in detecting changes: Echinometridae, Isognomidae, Muricidae, Tridacninae, Arcidae, and Turbinidae for macro-invertebrates and Pomacentridae, Labridae, and Chaetodontidae for fishes. Interestingly, these families did not provide high power in all geomorphological strata, suggesting that the ability of indicators in detecting anthropogenic impacts was closely linked to reef geomorphology. This study provides a first operational step toward identifying statistically relevant indicators of anthropogenic disturbances in New Caledonia's coral reefs, which can be useful in similar tropical reef ecosystems where little information is available regarding the responses of ecological indicators to anthropogenic disturbances.

  16. Statistical model specification and power: recommendations on the use of test-qualified pooling in analysis of experimental data

    PubMed Central

    Colegrave, Nick

    2017-01-01

    A common approach to the analysis of experimental data across much of the biological sciences is test-qualified pooling. Here non-significant terms are dropped from a statistical model, effectively pooling the variation associated with each removed term with the error term used to test hypotheses (or estimate effect sizes). This pooling is only carried out if statistical testing on the basis of applying that data to a previous more complicated model provides motivation for this model simplification; hence the pooling is test-qualified. In pooling, the researcher increases the degrees of freedom of the error term with the aim of increasing statistical power to test their hypotheses of interest. Despite this approach being widely adopted and explicitly recommended by some of the most widely cited statistical textbooks aimed at biologists, here we argue that (except in highly specialized circumstances that we can identify) the hoped-for improvement in statistical power will be small or non-existent, and there is likely to be much reduced reliability of the statistical procedures through deviation of type I error rates from nominal levels. We thus call for greatly reduced use of test-qualified pooling across experimental biology, more careful justification of any use that continues, and a different philosophy for initial selection of statistical models in the light of this change in procedure. PMID:28330912

  17. Moderate quality evidence finds statistical benefit in oral health for powered over manual toothbrushes.

    PubMed

    Niederman, Richard

    2014-09-01

    The Cochrane Oral Health Group's Trials Register, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), Medline, Embase, CINAHL, National Institutes of Health Trials Register and the WHO Clinical Trials Registry Platform for ongoing trials. Reference lists of identified articles were also scanned for relevant papers. Identified manufacturers were contacted for additional information. Only randomised controlled trials comparing manual and powered toothbrushes were considered. Crossover trials were eligible for inclusion if the wash-out period length was more than two weeks. Study assessment and data extraction were carried out independently by at least two reviewers. The primary outcome measures were quantified levels of plaque or gingivitis. Risk of bias assessment was undertaken. Standard Cochrane methodological approaches were taken. Random-effects models were used provided there were four or more studies included in the meta-analysis, otherwise fixed-effect models were used. Data were classed as short term (one to three months) and long term (greater than three months). Fifty-six trials were included with 51 (4624 patients) providing data for meta-analysis. The majority (46) were at unclear risk of bias, five at high risk of bias and five at low risk. There was moderate quality evidence that powered toothbrushes provide a statistically significant benefit compared with manual toothbrushes with regard to the reduction of plaque in both the short and long-term. This corresponds to an 11% reduction in plaque for the Quigley Hein index (Turesky) in the short term and a 21% reduction in the long term. There was a high degree of heterogeneity that was not explained by the different powered toothbrush type subgroups.There was also moderate quality evidence that powered toothbrushes again provide a statistically significant reduction in gingivitis when compared with manual toothbrushes both in the short and long term. This corresponds to a 6% and 11% reduction

  18. Comparison and validation of statistical methods for predicting power outage durations in the event of hurricanes.

    PubMed

    Nateghi, Roshanak; Guikema, Seth D; Quiring, Steven M

    2011-12-01

    This article compares statistical methods for modeling power outage durations during hurricanes and examines the predictive accuracy of these methods. Being able to make accurate predictions of power outage durations is valuable because the information can be used by utility companies to plan their restoration efforts more efficiently. This information can also help inform customers and public agencies of the expected outage times, enabling better collective response planning, and coordination of restoration efforts for other critical infrastructures that depend on electricity. In the long run, outage duration estimates for future storm scenarios may help utilities and public agencies better allocate risk management resources to balance the disruption from hurricanes with the cost of hardening power systems. We compare the out-of-sample predictive accuracy of five distinct statistical models for estimating power outage duration times caused by Hurricane Ivan in 2004. The methods compared include both regression models (accelerated failure time (AFT) and Cox proportional hazard models (Cox PH)) and data mining techniques (regression trees, Bayesian additive regression trees (BART), and multivariate additive regression splines). We then validate our models against two other hurricanes. Our results indicate that BART yields the best prediction accuracy and that it is possible to predict outage durations with reasonable accuracy. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  19. Designing image segmentation studies: Statistical power, sample size and reference standard quality.

    PubMed

    Gibson, Eli; Hu, Yipeng; Huisman, Henkjan J; Barratt, Dean C

    2017-12-01

    Segmentation algorithms are typically evaluated by comparison to an accepted reference standard. The cost of generating accurate reference standards for medical image segmentation can be substantial. Since the study cost and the likelihood of detecting a clinically meaningful difference in accuracy both depend on the size and on the quality of the study reference standard, balancing these trade-offs supports the efficient use of research resources. In this work, we derive a statistical power calculation that enables researchers to estimate the appropriate sample size to detect clinically meaningful differences in segmentation accuracy (i.e. the proportion of voxels matching the reference standard) between two algorithms. Furthermore, we derive a formula to relate reference standard errors to their effect on the sample sizes of studies using lower-quality (but potentially more affordable and practically available) reference standards. The accuracy of the derived sample size formula was estimated through Monte Carlo simulation, demonstrating, with 95% confidence, a predicted statistical power within 4% of simulated values across a range of model parameters. This corresponds to sample size errors of less than 4 subjects and errors in the detectable accuracy difference less than 0.6%. The applicability of the formula to real-world data was assessed using bootstrap resampling simulations for pairs of algorithms from the PROMISE12 prostate MR segmentation challenge data set. The model predicted the simulated power for the majority of algorithm pairs within 4% for simulated experiments using a high-quality reference standard and within 6% for simulated experiments using a low-quality reference standard. A case study, also based on the PROMISE12 data, illustrates using the formulae to evaluate whether to use a lower-quality reference standard in a prostate segmentation study. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Improved statistical power with a sparse shape model in detecting an aging effect in the hippocampus and amygdala

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chung, Moo K.; Kim, Seung-Goo; Schaefer, Stacey M.; van Reekum, Carien M.; Peschke-Schmitz, Lara; Sutterer, Matthew J.; Davidson, Richard J.

    2014-03-01

    The sparse regression framework has been widely used in medical image processing and analysis. However, it has been rarely used in anatomical studies. We present a sparse shape modeling framework using the Laplace- Beltrami (LB) eigenfunctions of the underlying shape and show its improvement of statistical power. Tradition- ally, the LB-eigenfunctions are used as a basis for intrinsically representing surface shapes as a form of Fourier descriptors. To reduce high frequency noise, only the first few terms are used in the expansion and higher frequency terms are simply thrown away. However, some lower frequency terms may not necessarily contribute significantly in reconstructing the surfaces. Motivated by this idea, we present a LB-based method to filter out only the significant eigenfunctions by imposing a sparse penalty. For dense anatomical data such as deformation fields on a surface mesh, the sparse regression behaves like a smoothing process, which will reduce the error of incorrectly detecting false negatives. Hence the statistical power improves. The sparse shape model is then applied in investigating the influence of age on amygdala and hippocampus shapes in the normal population. The advantage of the LB sparse framework is demonstrated by showing the increased statistical power.

  1. Statistical properties of radiation power levels from a high-gain free-electron laser at and beyond saturation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schroeder, C. B.; Fawley, W. M.; Esarey, E.

    2003-07-01

    We investigate the statistical properties (e.g., shot-to-shot power fluctuations) of the radiation from a high-gain free-electron laser (FEL) operating in the nonlinear regime. We consider the case of an FEL amplifier reaching saturation whose shot-to-shot fluctuations in input radiation power follow a gamma distribution. We analyze the corresponding output power fluctuations at and beyond saturation, including beam energy spread effects, and find that there are well-characterized values of undulator length for which the fluctuations reach a minimum.

  2. Bias, precision and statistical power of analysis of covariance in the analysis of randomized trials with baseline imbalance: a simulation study.

    PubMed

    Egbewale, Bolaji E; Lewis, Martyn; Sim, Julius

    2014-04-09

    Analysis of variance (ANOVA), change-score analysis (CSA) and analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) respond differently to baseline imbalance in randomized controlled trials. However, no empirical studies appear to have quantified the differential bias and precision of estimates derived from these methods of analysis, and their relative statistical power, in relation to combinations of levels of key trial characteristics. This simulation study therefore examined the relative bias, precision and statistical power of these three analyses using simulated trial data. 126 hypothetical trial scenarios were evaluated (126,000 datasets), each with continuous data simulated by using a combination of levels of: treatment effect; pretest-posttest correlation; direction and magnitude of baseline imbalance. The bias, precision and power of each method of analysis were calculated for each scenario. Compared to the unbiased estimates produced by ANCOVA, both ANOVA and CSA are subject to bias, in relation to pretest-posttest correlation and the direction of baseline imbalance. Additionally, ANOVA and CSA are less precise than ANCOVA, especially when pretest-posttest correlation ≥ 0.3. When groups are balanced at baseline, ANCOVA is at least as powerful as the other analyses. Apparently greater power of ANOVA and CSA at certain imbalances is achieved in respect of a biased treatment effect. Across a range of correlations between pre- and post-treatment scores and at varying levels and direction of baseline imbalance, ANCOVA remains the optimum statistical method for the analysis of continuous outcomes in RCTs, in terms of bias, precision and statistical power.

  3. Bias, precision and statistical power of analysis of covariance in the analysis of randomized trials with baseline imbalance: a simulation study

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Analysis of variance (ANOVA), change-score analysis (CSA) and analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) respond differently to baseline imbalance in randomized controlled trials. However, no empirical studies appear to have quantified the differential bias and precision of estimates derived from these methods of analysis, and their relative statistical power, in relation to combinations of levels of key trial characteristics. This simulation study therefore examined the relative bias, precision and statistical power of these three analyses using simulated trial data. Methods 126 hypothetical trial scenarios were evaluated (126 000 datasets), each with continuous data simulated by using a combination of levels of: treatment effect; pretest-posttest correlation; direction and magnitude of baseline imbalance. The bias, precision and power of each method of analysis were calculated for each scenario. Results Compared to the unbiased estimates produced by ANCOVA, both ANOVA and CSA are subject to bias, in relation to pretest-posttest correlation and the direction of baseline imbalance. Additionally, ANOVA and CSA are less precise than ANCOVA, especially when pretest-posttest correlation ≥ 0.3. When groups are balanced at baseline, ANCOVA is at least as powerful as the other analyses. Apparently greater power of ANOVA and CSA at certain imbalances is achieved in respect of a biased treatment effect. Conclusions Across a range of correlations between pre- and post-treatment scores and at varying levels and direction of baseline imbalance, ANCOVA remains the optimum statistical method for the analysis of continuous outcomes in RCTs, in terms of bias, precision and statistical power. PMID:24712304

  4. Statistical learning: a powerful mechanism that operates by mere exposure.

    PubMed

    Aslin, Richard N

    2017-01-01

    How do infants learn so rapidly and with little apparent effort? In 1996, Saffran, Aslin, and Newport reported that 8-month-old human infants could learn the underlying temporal structure of a stream of speech syllables after only 2 min of passive listening. This demonstration of what was called statistical learning, involving no instruction, reinforcement, or feedback, led to dozens of confirmations of this powerful mechanism of implicit learning in a variety of modalities, domains, and species. These findings reveal that infants are not nearly as dependent on explicit forms of instruction as we might have assumed from studies of learning in which children or adults are taught facts such as math or problem solving skills. Instead, at least in some domains, infants soak up the information around them by mere exposure. Learning and development in these domains thus appear to occur automatically and with little active involvement by an instructor (parent or teacher). The details of this statistical learning mechanism are discussed, including how exposure to specific types of information can, under some circumstances, generalize to never-before-observed information, thereby enabling transfer of learning. WIREs Cogn Sci 2017, 8:e1373. doi: 10.1002/wcs.1373 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  5. A Powerful Approach to Estimating Annotation-Stratified Genetic Covariance via GWAS Summary Statistics.

    PubMed

    Lu, Qiongshi; Li, Boyang; Ou, Derek; Erlendsdottir, Margret; Powles, Ryan L; Jiang, Tony; Hu, Yiming; Chang, David; Jin, Chentian; Dai, Wei; He, Qidu; Liu, Zefeng; Mukherjee, Shubhabrata; Crane, Paul K; Zhao, Hongyu

    2017-12-07

    Despite the success of large-scale genome-wide association studies (GWASs) on complex traits, our understanding of their genetic architecture is far from complete. Jointly modeling multiple traits' genetic profiles has provided insights into the shared genetic basis of many complex traits. However, large-scale inference sets a high bar for both statistical power and biological interpretability. Here we introduce a principled framework to estimate annotation-stratified genetic covariance between traits using GWAS summary statistics. Through theoretical and numerical analyses, we demonstrate that our method provides accurate covariance estimates, thereby enabling researchers to dissect both the shared and distinct genetic architecture across traits to better understand their etiologies. Among 50 complex traits with publicly accessible GWAS summary statistics (N total ≈ 4.5 million), we identified more than 170 pairs with statistically significant genetic covariance. In particular, we found strong genetic covariance between late-onset Alzheimer disease (LOAD) and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), two major neurodegenerative diseases, in single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with high minor allele frequencies and in SNPs located in the predicted functional genome. Joint analysis of LOAD, ALS, and other traits highlights LOAD's correlation with cognitive traits and hints at an autoimmune component for ALS. Copyright © 2017 American Society of Human Genetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Impact of genotyping errors on statistical power of association tests in genomic analyses: A case study

    PubMed Central

    Hou, Lin; Sun, Ning; Mane, Shrikant; Sayward, Fred; Rajeevan, Nallakkandi; Cheung, Kei-Hoi; Cho, Kelly; Pyarajan, Saiju; Aslan, Mihaela; Miller, Perry; Harvey, Philip D.; Gaziano, J. Michael; Concato, John; Zhao, Hongyu

    2017-01-01

    A key step in genomic studies is to assess high throughput measurements across millions of markers for each participant’s DNA, either using microarrays or sequencing techniques. Accurate genotype calling is essential for downstream statistical analysis of genotype-phenotype associations, and next generation sequencing (NGS) has recently become a more common approach in genomic studies. How the accuracy of variant calling in NGS-based studies affects downstream association analysis has not, however, been studied using empirical data in which both microarrays and NGS were available. In this article, we investigate the impact of variant calling errors on the statistical power to identify associations between single nucleotides and disease, and on associations between multiple rare variants and disease. Both differential and nondifferential genotyping errors are considered. Our results show that the power of burden tests for rare variants is strongly influenced by the specificity in variant calling, but is rather robust with regard to sensitivity. By using the variant calling accuracies estimated from a substudy of a Cooperative Studies Program project conducted by the Department of Veterans Affairs, we show that the power of association tests is mostly retained with commonly adopted variant calling pipelines. An R package, GWAS.PC, is provided to accommodate power analysis that takes account of genotyping errors (http://zhaocenter.org/software/). PMID:28019059

  7. Statistical characterization of handwriting characteristics using automated tools

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ball, Gregory R.; Srihari, Sargur N.

    2011-01-01

    We provide a statistical basis for reporting the results of handwriting examination by questioned document (QD) examiners. As a facet of Questioned Document (QD) examination, the analysis and reporting of handwriting examination suffers from the lack of statistical data concerning the frequency of occurrence of combinations of particular handwriting characteristics. QD examiners tend to assign probative values to specific handwriting characteristics and their combinations based entirely on the examiner's experience and power of recall. The research uses data bases of handwriting samples that are representative of the US population. Feature lists of characteristics provided by QD examiners, are used to determine as to what frequencies need to be evaluated. Algorithms are used to automatically extract those characteristics, e.g., a software tool for extracting most of the characteristics from the most common letter pair th, is functional. For each letter combination the marginal and conditional frequencies of their characteristics are evaluated. Based on statistical dependencies of the characteristics the probability of any given letter formation is computed. The resulting algorithms are incorporated into a system for writer verification known as CEDAR-FOX.

  8. Detecting trends in raptor counts: power and type I error rates of various statistical tests

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hatfield, J.S.; Gould, W.R.; Hoover, B.A.; Fuller, M.R.; Lindquist, E.L.

    1996-01-01

    We conducted simulations that estimated power and type I error rates of statistical tests for detecting trends in raptor population count data collected from a single monitoring site. Results of the simulations were used to help analyze count data of bald eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) from 7 national forests in Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin during 1980-1989. Seven statistical tests were evaluated, including simple linear regression on the log scale and linear regression with a permutation test. Using 1,000 replications each, we simulated n = 10 and n = 50 years of count data and trends ranging from -5 to 5% change/year. We evaluated the tests at 3 critical levels (alpha = 0.01, 0.05, and 0.10) for both upper- and lower-tailed tests. Exponential count data were simulated by adding sampling error with a coefficient of variation of 40% from either a log-normal or autocorrelated log-normal distribution. Not surprisingly, tests performed with 50 years of data were much more powerful than tests with 10 years of data. Positive autocorrelation inflated alpha-levels upward from their nominal levels, making the tests less conservative and more likely to reject the null hypothesis of no trend. Of the tests studied, Cox and Stuart's test and Pollard's test clearly had lower power than the others. Surprisingly, the linear regression t-test, Collins' linear regression permutation test, and the nonparametric Lehmann's and Mann's tests all had similar power in our simulations. Analyses of the count data suggested that bald eagles had increasing trends on at least 2 of the 7 national forests during 1980-1989.

  9. The impact of registration accuracy on imaging validation study design: A novel statistical power calculation.

    PubMed

    Gibson, Eli; Fenster, Aaron; Ward, Aaron D

    2013-10-01

    Novel imaging modalities are pushing the boundaries of what is possible in medical imaging, but their signal properties are not always well understood. The evaluation of these novel imaging modalities is critical to achieving their research and clinical potential. Image registration of novel modalities to accepted reference standard modalities is an important part of characterizing the modalities and elucidating the effect of underlying focal disease on the imaging signal. The strengths of the conclusions drawn from these analyses are limited by statistical power. Based on the observation that in this context, statistical power depends in part on uncertainty arising from registration error, we derive a power calculation formula relating registration error, number of subjects, and the minimum detectable difference between normal and pathologic regions on imaging, for an imaging validation study design that accommodates signal correlations within image regions. Monte Carlo simulations were used to evaluate the derived models and test the strength of their assumptions, showing that the model yielded predictions of the power, the number of subjects, and the minimum detectable difference of simulated experiments accurate to within a maximum error of 1% when the assumptions of the derivation were met, and characterizing sensitivities of the model to violations of the assumptions. The use of these formulae is illustrated through a calculation of the number of subjects required for a case study, modeled closely after a prostate cancer imaging validation study currently taking place at our institution. The power calculation formulae address three central questions in the design of imaging validation studies: (1) What is the maximum acceptable registration error? (2) How many subjects are needed? (3) What is the minimum detectable difference between normal and pathologic image regions? Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Seven ways to increase power without increasing N.

    PubMed

    Hansen, W B; Collins, L M

    1994-01-01

    Many readers of this monograph may wonder why a chapter on statistical power was included. After all, by now the issue of statistical power is in many respects mundane. Everyone knows that statistical power is a central research consideration, and certainly most National Institute on Drug Abuse grantees or prospective grantees understand the importance of including a power analysis in research proposals. However, there is ample evidence that, in practice, prevention researchers are not paying sufficient attention to statistical power. If they were, the findings observed by Hansen (1992) in a recent review of the prevention literature would not have emerged. Hansen (1992) examined statistical power based on 46 cohorts followed longitudinally, using nonparametric assumptions given the subjects' age at posttest and the numbers of subjects. Results of this analysis indicated that, in order for a study to attain 80-percent power for detecting differences between treatment and control groups, the difference between groups at posttest would need to be at least 8 percent (in the best studies) and as much as 16 percent (in the weakest studies). In order for a study to attain 80-percent power for detecting group differences in pre-post change, 22 of the 46 cohorts would have needed relative pre-post reductions of greater than 100 percent. Thirty-three of the 46 cohorts had less than 50-percent power to detect a 50-percent relative reduction in substance use. These results are consistent with other review findings (e.g., Lipsey 1990) that have shown a similar lack of power in a broad range of research topics. Thus, it seems that, although researchers are aware of the importance of statistical power (particularly of the necessity for calculating it when proposing research), they somehow are failing to end up with adequate power in their completed studies. This chapter argues that the failure of many prevention studies to maintain adequate statistical power is due to an

  11. Statistics of the radiated field of a space-to-earth microwave power transfer system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stevens, G. H.; Leininger, G.

    1976-01-01

    Statistics such as average power density pattern, variance of the power density pattern and variance of the beam pointing error are related to hardware parameters such as transmitter rms phase error and rms amplitude error. Also a limitation on spectral width of the phase reference for phase control was established. A 1 km diameter transmitter appears feasible provided the total rms insertion phase errors of the phase control modules does not exceed 10 deg, amplitude errors do not exceed 10% rms, and the phase reference spectral width does not exceed approximately 3 kHz. With these conditions the expected radiation pattern is virtually the same as the error free pattern, and the rms beam pointing error would be insignificant (approximately 10 meters).

  12. Precision, Reliability, and Effect Size of Slope Variance in Latent Growth Curve Models: Implications for Statistical Power Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Brandmaier, Andreas M.; von Oertzen, Timo; Ghisletta, Paolo; Lindenberger, Ulman; Hertzog, Christopher

    2018-01-01

    Latent Growth Curve Models (LGCM) have become a standard technique to model change over time. Prediction and explanation of inter-individual differences in change are major goals in lifespan research. The major determinants of statistical power to detect individual differences in change are the magnitude of true inter-individual differences in linear change (LGCM slope variance), design precision, alpha level, and sample size. Here, we show that design precision can be expressed as the inverse of effective error. Effective error is determined by instrument reliability and the temporal arrangement of measurement occasions. However, it also depends on another central LGCM component, the variance of the latent intercept and its covariance with the latent slope. We derive a new reliability index for LGCM slope variance—effective curve reliability (ECR)—by scaling slope variance against effective error. ECR is interpretable as a standardized effect size index. We demonstrate how effective error, ECR, and statistical power for a likelihood ratio test of zero slope variance formally relate to each other and how they function as indices of statistical power. We also provide a computational approach to derive ECR for arbitrary intercept-slope covariance. With practical use cases, we argue for the complementary utility of the proposed indices of a study's sensitivity to detect slope variance when making a priori longitudinal design decisions or communicating study designs. PMID:29755377

  13. Statistical Properties of Maximum Likelihood Estimators of Power Law Spectra Information

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Howell, L. W., Jr.

    2003-01-01

    A simple power law model consisting of a single spectral index, sigma(sub 2), is believed to be an adequate description of the galactic cosmic-ray (GCR) proton flux at energies below 10(exp 13) eV, with a transition at the knee energy, E(sub k), to a steeper spectral index sigma(sub 2) greater than sigma(sub 1) above E(sub k). The maximum likelihood (ML) procedure was developed for estimating the single parameter sigma(sub 1) of a simple power law energy spectrum and generalized to estimate the three spectral parameters of the broken power law energy spectrum from simulated detector responses and real cosmic-ray data. The statistical properties of the ML estimator were investigated and shown to have the three desirable properties: (Pl) consistency (asymptotically unbiased), (P2) efficiency (asymptotically attains the Cramer-Rao minimum variance bound), and (P3) asymptotically normally distributed, under a wide range of potential detector response functions. Attainment of these properties necessarily implies that the ML estimation procedure provides the best unbiased estimator possible. While simulation studies can easily determine if a given estimation procedure provides an unbiased estimate of the spectra information, and whether or not the estimator is approximately normally distributed, attainment of the Cramer-Rao bound (CRB) can only be ascertained by calculating the CRB for an assumed energy spectrum- detector response function combination, which can be quite formidable in practice. However, the effort in calculating the CRB is very worthwhile because it provides the necessary means to compare the efficiency of competing estimation techniques and, furthermore, provides a stopping rule in the search for the best unbiased estimator. Consequently, the CRB for both the simple and broken power law energy spectra are derived herein and the conditions under which they are stained in practice are investigated.

  14. Statistical power in parallel group point exposure studies with time-to-event outcomes: an empirical comparison of the performance of randomized controlled trials and the inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) approach.

    PubMed

    Austin, Peter C; Schuster, Tibor; Platt, Robert W

    2015-10-15

    Estimating statistical power is an important component of the design of both randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and observational studies. Methods for estimating statistical power in RCTs have been well described and can be implemented simply. In observational studies, statistical methods must be used to remove the effects of confounding that can occur due to non-random treatment assignment. Inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) using the propensity score is an attractive method for estimating the effects of treatment using observational data. However, sample size and power calculations have not been adequately described for these methods. We used an extensive series of Monte Carlo simulations to compare the statistical power of an IPTW analysis of an observational study with time-to-event outcomes with that of an analysis of a similarly-structured RCT. We examined the impact of four factors on the statistical power function: number of observed events, prevalence of treatment, the marginal hazard ratio, and the strength of the treatment-selection process. We found that, on average, an IPTW analysis had lower statistical power compared to an analysis of a similarly-structured RCT. The difference in statistical power increased as the magnitude of the treatment-selection model increased. The statistical power of an IPTW analysis tended to be lower than the statistical power of a similarly-structured RCT.

  15. Power-up: A Reanalysis of 'Power Failure' in Neuroscience Using Mixture Modeling

    PubMed Central

    Wood, John

    2017-01-01

    Recently, evidence for endemically low statistical power has cast neuroscience findings into doubt. If low statistical power plagues neuroscience, then this reduces confidence in the reported effects. However, if statistical power is not uniformly low, then such blanket mistrust might not be warranted. Here, we provide a different perspective on this issue, analyzing data from an influential study reporting a median power of 21% across 49 meta-analyses (Button et al., 2013). We demonstrate, using Gaussian mixture modeling, that the sample of 730 studies included in that analysis comprises several subcomponents so the use of a single summary statistic is insufficient to characterize the nature of the distribution. We find that statistical power is extremely low for studies included in meta-analyses that reported a null result and that it varies substantially across subfields of neuroscience, with particularly low power in candidate gene association studies. Therefore, whereas power in neuroscience remains a critical issue, the notion that studies are systematically underpowered is not the full story: low power is far from a universal problem. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Recently, researchers across the biomedical and psychological sciences have become concerned with the reliability of results. One marker for reliability is statistical power: the probability of finding a statistically significant result given that the effect exists. Previous evidence suggests that statistical power is low across the field of neuroscience. Our results present a more comprehensive picture of statistical power in neuroscience: on average, studies are indeed underpowered—some very seriously so—but many studies show acceptable or even exemplary statistical power. We show that this heterogeneity in statistical power is common across most subfields in neuroscience. This new, more nuanced picture of statistical power in neuroscience could affect not only scientific understanding, but

  16. Power-up: A Reanalysis of 'Power Failure' in Neuroscience Using Mixture Modeling.

    PubMed

    Nord, Camilla L; Valton, Vincent; Wood, John; Roiser, Jonathan P

    2017-08-23

    Recently, evidence for endemically low statistical power has cast neuroscience findings into doubt. If low statistical power plagues neuroscience, then this reduces confidence in the reported effects. However, if statistical power is not uniformly low, then such blanket mistrust might not be warranted. Here, we provide a different perspective on this issue, analyzing data from an influential study reporting a median power of 21% across 49 meta-analyses (Button et al., 2013). We demonstrate, using Gaussian mixture modeling, that the sample of 730 studies included in that analysis comprises several subcomponents so the use of a single summary statistic is insufficient to characterize the nature of the distribution. We find that statistical power is extremely low for studies included in meta-analyses that reported a null result and that it varies substantially across subfields of neuroscience, with particularly low power in candidate gene association studies. Therefore, whereas power in neuroscience remains a critical issue, the notion that studies are systematically underpowered is not the full story: low power is far from a universal problem. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Recently, researchers across the biomedical and psychological sciences have become concerned with the reliability of results. One marker for reliability is statistical power: the probability of finding a statistically significant result given that the effect exists. Previous evidence suggests that statistical power is low across the field of neuroscience. Our results present a more comprehensive picture of statistical power in neuroscience: on average, studies are indeed underpowered-some very seriously so-but many studies show acceptable or even exemplary statistical power. We show that this heterogeneity in statistical power is common across most subfields in neuroscience. This new, more nuanced picture of statistical power in neuroscience could affect not only scientific understanding, but potentially

  17. A powerful score-based test statistic for detecting gene-gene co-association.

    PubMed

    Xu, Jing; Yuan, Zhongshang; Ji, Jiadong; Zhang, Xiaoshuai; Li, Hongkai; Wu, Xuesen; Xue, Fuzhong; Liu, Yanxun

    2016-01-29

    The genetic variants identified by Genome-wide association study (GWAS) can only account for a small proportion of the total heritability for complex disease. The existence of gene-gene joint effects which contains the main effects and their co-association is one of the possible explanations for the "missing heritability" problems. Gene-gene co-association refers to the extent to which the joint effects of two genes differ from the main effects, not only due to the traditional interaction under nearly independent condition but the correlation between genes. Generally, genes tend to work collaboratively within specific pathway or network contributing to the disease and the specific disease-associated locus will often be highly correlated (e.g. single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in linkage disequilibrium). Therefore, we proposed a novel score-based statistic (SBS) as a gene-based method for detecting gene-gene co-association. Various simulations illustrate that, under different sample sizes, marginal effects of causal SNPs and co-association levels, the proposed SBS has the better performance than other existed methods including single SNP-based and principle component analysis (PCA)-based logistic regression model, the statistics based on canonical correlations (CCU), kernel canonical correlation analysis (KCCU), partial least squares path modeling (PLSPM) and delta-square (δ (2)) statistic. The real data analysis of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) further confirmed its advantages in practice. SBS is a powerful and efficient gene-based method for detecting gene-gene co-association.

  18. Statistical Power Analysis with Microsoft Excel: Normal Tests for One or Two Means as a Prelude to Using Non-Central Distributions to Calculate Power

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Texeira, Antonio; Rosa, Alvaro; Calapez, Teresa

    2009-01-01

    This article presents statistical power analysis (SPA) based on the normal distribution using Excel, adopting textbook and SPA approaches. The objective is to present the latter in a comparative way within a framework that is familiar to textbook level readers, as a first step to understand SPA with other distributions. The analysis focuses on the…

  19. Lack of large-angle TT correlations persists in WMAP and Planck

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Copi, Craig J.; Huterer, Dragan; Schwarz, Dominik J.; Starkman, Glenn D.

    2015-08-01

    The lack of large-angle correlations in the observed microwave background temperature fluctuations persists in the final-year maps from Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) and the first cosmological data release from Planck. We find a statistically robust and significant result: p-values for the missing correlations lying below 0.24 per cent (i.e. evidence at more than 3σ) for foreground cleaned maps, in complete agreement with previous analyses based upon earlier WMAP data. A cut-sky analysis of the Planck HFI 100 GHz frequency band, the `cleanest CMB channel' of this instrument, returns a p-value as small as 0.03 per cent, based on the conservative mask defined by WMAP. These findings are in stark contrast to expectations from the inflationary Lambda cold dark matter model and still lack a convincing explanation. If this lack of large-angle correlations is a true feature of our Universe, and not just a statistical fluke, then the cosmological dipole must be considerably smaller than that predicted in the best-fitting model.

  20. Harmonic statistics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eliazar, Iddo

    2017-05-01

    The exponential, the normal, and the Poisson statistical laws are of major importance due to their universality. Harmonic statistics are as universal as the three aforementioned laws, but yet they fall short in their 'public relations' for the following reason: the full scope of harmonic statistics cannot be described in terms of a statistical law. In this paper we describe harmonic statistics, in their full scope, via an object termed harmonic Poisson process: a Poisson process, over the positive half-line, with a harmonic intensity. The paper reviews the harmonic Poisson process, investigates its properties, and presents the connections of this object to an assortment of topics: uniform statistics, scale invariance, random multiplicative perturbations, Pareto and inverse-Pareto statistics, exponential growth and exponential decay, power-law renormalization, convergence and domains of attraction, the Langevin equation, diffusions, Benford's law, and 1/f noise.

  1. Spatial heterogeneity in statistical power to detect changes in lake area in Alaskan National Wildlife Refuges

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nicol, Samuel; Roach, Jennifer K.; Griffith, Brad

    2013-01-01

    Over the past 50 years, the number and size of high-latitude lakes have decreased throughout many regions; however, individual lake trends have been variable in direction and magnitude. This spatial heterogeneity in lake change makes statistical detection of temporal trends challenging, particularly in small analysis areas where weak trends are difficult to separate from inter- and intra-annual variability. Factors affecting trend detection include inherent variability, trend magnitude, and sample size. In this paper, we investigated how the statistical power to detect average linear trends in lake size of 0.5, 1.0 and 2.0 %/year was affected by the size of the analysis area and the number of years of monitoring in National Wildlife Refuges in Alaska. We estimated power for large (930–4,560 sq km) study areas within refuges and for 2.6, 12.9, and 25.9 sq km cells nested within study areas over temporal extents of 4–50 years. We found that: (1) trends in study areas could be detected within 5–15 years, (2) trends smaller than 2.0 %/year would take >50 years to detect in cells within study areas, and (3) there was substantial spatial variation in the time required to detect change among cells. Power was particularly low in the smallest cells which typically had the fewest lakes. Because small but ecologically meaningful trends may take decades to detect, early establishment of long-term monitoring will enhance power to detect change. Our results have broad applicability and our method is useful for any study involving change detection among variable spatial and temporal extents.

  2. An analysis of I/O efficient order-statistic-based techniques for noise power estimation in the HRMS sky survey's operational system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zimmerman, G. A.; Olsen, E. T.

    1992-01-01

    Noise power estimation in the High-Resolution Microwave Survey (HRMS) sky survey element is considered as an example of a constant false alarm rate (CFAR) signal detection problem. Order-statistic-based noise power estimators for CFAR detection are considered in terms of required estimator accuracy and estimator dynamic range. By limiting the dynamic range of the value to be estimated, the performance of an order-statistic estimator can be achieved by simpler techniques requiring only a single pass of the data. Simple threshold-and-count techniques are examined, and it is shown how several parallel threshold-and-count estimation devices can be used to expand the dynamic range to meet HRMS system requirements with minimal hardware complexity. An input/output (I/O) efficient limited-precision order-statistic estimator with wide but limited dynamic range is also examined.

  3. Lacking "Lack": A Reply to Joldersma

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Marshall, James D.

    2007-01-01

    First I would like to thank Clarence Joldersma for his review of our "Poststructuralism, Philosophy, Pedagogy" (Marshall, 2004-PPP). In particular, I would thank him for his opening sentence: "[t]his book is a response to a lack." It is the notion of a lack, noted again later in his review, which I wish to take up mainly in this response. Rather…

  4. The Bayesian New Statistics: Hypothesis testing, estimation, meta-analysis, and power analysis from a Bayesian perspective.

    PubMed

    Kruschke, John K; Liddell, Torrin M

    2018-02-01

    In the practice of data analysis, there is a conceptual distinction between hypothesis testing, on the one hand, and estimation with quantified uncertainty on the other. Among frequentists in psychology, a shift of emphasis from hypothesis testing to estimation has been dubbed "the New Statistics" (Cumming 2014). A second conceptual distinction is between frequentist methods and Bayesian methods. Our main goal in this article is to explain how Bayesian methods achieve the goals of the New Statistics better than frequentist methods. The article reviews frequentist and Bayesian approaches to hypothesis testing and to estimation with confidence or credible intervals. The article also describes Bayesian approaches to meta-analysis, randomized controlled trials, and power analysis.

  5. A Statistical Approach for Testing Cross-Phenotype Effects of Rare Variants

    PubMed Central

    Broadaway, K. Alaine; Cutler, David J.; Duncan, Richard; Moore, Jacob L.; Ware, Erin B.; Jhun, Min A.; Bielak, Lawrence F.; Zhao, Wei; Smith, Jennifer A.; Peyser, Patricia A.; Kardia, Sharon L.R.; Ghosh, Debashis; Epstein, Michael P.

    2016-01-01

    Increasing empirical evidence suggests that many genetic variants influence multiple distinct phenotypes. When cross-phenotype effects exist, multivariate association methods that consider pleiotropy are often more powerful than univariate methods that model each phenotype separately. Although several statistical approaches exist for testing cross-phenotype effects for common variants, there is a lack of similar tests for gene-based analysis of rare variants. In order to fill this important gap, we introduce a statistical method for cross-phenotype analysis of rare variants using a nonparametric distance-covariance approach that compares similarity in multivariate phenotypes to similarity in rare-variant genotypes across a gene. The approach can accommodate both binary and continuous phenotypes and further can adjust for covariates. Our approach yields a closed-form test whose significance can be evaluated analytically, thereby improving computational efficiency and permitting application on a genome-wide scale. We use simulated data to demonstrate that our method, which we refer to as the Gene Association with Multiple Traits (GAMuT) test, provides increased power over competing approaches. We also illustrate our approach using exome-chip data from the Genetic Epidemiology Network of Arteriopathy. PMID:26942286

  6. Statistical Analysis of Solar PV Power Frequency Spectrum for Optimal Employment of Building Loads

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Olama, Mohammed M; Sharma, Isha; Kuruganti, Teja

    In this paper, a statistical analysis of the frequency spectrum of solar photovoltaic (PV) power output is conducted. This analysis quantifies the frequency content that can be used for purposes such as developing optimal employment of building loads and distributed energy resources. One year of solar PV power output data was collected and analyzed using one-second resolution to find ideal bounds and levels for the different frequency components. The annual, seasonal, and monthly statistics of the PV frequency content are computed and illustrated in boxplot format. To examine the compatibility of building loads for PV consumption, a spectral analysis ofmore » building loads such as Heating, Ventilation and Air-Conditioning (HVAC) units and water heaters was performed. This defined the bandwidth over which these devices can operate. Results show that nearly all of the PV output (about 98%) is contained within frequencies lower than 1 mHz (equivalent to ~15 min), which is compatible for consumption with local building loads such as HVAC units and water heaters. Medium frequencies in the range of ~15 min to ~1 min are likely to be suitable for consumption by fan equipment of variable air volume HVAC systems that have time constants in the range of few seconds to few minutes. This study indicates that most of the PV generation can be consumed by building loads with the help of proper control strategies, thereby reducing impact on the grid and the size of storage systems.« less

  7. Power of mental health nursing research: a statistical analysis of studies in the International Journal of Mental Health Nursing.

    PubMed

    Gaskin, Cadeyrn J; Happell, Brenda

    2013-02-01

    Having sufficient power to detect effect sizes of an expected magnitude is a core consideration when designing studies in which inferential statistics will be used. The main aim of this study was to investigate the statistical power in studies published in the International Journal of Mental Health Nursing. From volumes 19 (2010) and 20 (2011) of the journal, studies were analysed for their power to detect small, medium, and large effect sizes, according to Cohen's guidelines. The power of the 23 studies included in this review to detect small, medium, and large effects was 0.34, 0.79, and 0.94, respectively. In 90% of papers, no adjustments for experiment-wise error were reported. With a median of nine inferential tests per paper, the mean experiment-wise error rate was 0.51. A priori power analyses were only reported in 17% of studies. Although effect sizes for correlations and regressions were routinely reported, effect sizes for other tests (χ(2)-tests, t-tests, ANOVA/MANOVA) were largely absent from the papers. All types of effect sizes were infrequently interpreted. Researchers are strongly encouraged to conduct power analyses when designing studies, and to avoid scattergun approaches to data analysis (i.e. undertaking large numbers of tests in the hope of finding 'significant' results). Because reviewing effect sizes is essential for determining the clinical significance of study findings, researchers would better serve the field of mental health nursing if they reported and interpreted effect sizes. © 2012 The Authors. International Journal of Mental Health Nursing © 2012 Australian College of Mental Health Nurses Inc.

  8. Mixed Effects Models for Resampled Network Statistics Improves Statistical Power to Find Differences in Multi-Subject Functional Connectivity

    PubMed Central

    Narayan, Manjari; Allen, Genevera I.

    2016-01-01

    Many complex brain disorders, such as autism spectrum disorders, exhibit a wide range of symptoms and disability. To understand how brain communication is impaired in such conditions, functional connectivity studies seek to understand individual differences in brain network structure in terms of covariates that measure symptom severity. In practice, however, functional connectivity is not observed but estimated from complex and noisy neural activity measurements. Imperfect subject network estimates can compromise subsequent efforts to detect covariate effects on network structure. We address this problem in the case of Gaussian graphical models of functional connectivity, by proposing novel two-level models that treat both subject level networks and population level covariate effects as unknown parameters. To account for imperfectly estimated subject level networks when fitting these models, we propose two related approaches—R2 based on resampling and random effects test statistics, and R3 that additionally employs random adaptive penalization. Simulation studies using realistic graph structures reveal that R2 and R3 have superior statistical power to detect covariate effects compared to existing approaches, particularly when the number of within subject observations is comparable to the size of subject networks. Using our novel models and methods to study parts of the ABIDE dataset, we find evidence of hypoconnectivity associated with symptom severity in autism spectrum disorders, in frontoparietal and limbic systems as well as in anterior and posterior cingulate cortices. PMID:27147940

  9. Dark matter statistics for large galaxy catalogs: power spectra and covariance matrices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klypin, Anatoly; Prada, Francisco

    2018-06-01

    Large-scale surveys of galaxies require accurate theoretical predictions of the dark matter clustering for thousands of mock galaxy catalogs. We demonstrate that this goal can be achieve with the new Parallel Particle-Mesh (PM) N-body code GLAM at a very low computational cost. We run ˜22, 000 simulations with ˜2 billion particles that provide ˜1% accuracy of the dark matter power spectra P(k) for wave-numbers up to k ˜ 1hMpc-1. Using this large data-set we study the power spectrum covariance matrix. In contrast to many previous analytical and numerical results, we find that the covariance matrix normalised to the power spectrum C(k, k΄)/P(k)P(k΄) has a complex structure of non-diagonal components: an upturn at small k, followed by a minimum at k ≈ 0.1 - 0.2 hMpc-1, and a maximum at k ≈ 0.5 - 0.6 hMpc-1. The normalised covariance matrix strongly evolves with redshift: C(k, k΄)∝δα(t)P(k)P(k΄), where δ is the linear growth factor and α ≈ 1 - 1.25, which indicates that the covariance matrix depends on cosmological parameters. We also show that waves longer than 1h-1Gpc have very little impact on the power spectrum and covariance matrix. This significantly reduces the computational costs and complexity of theoretical predictions: relatively small volume ˜(1h-1Gpc)3 simulations capture the necessary properties of dark matter clustering statistics. As our results also indicate, achieving ˜1% errors in the covariance matrix for k < 0.50 hMpc-1 requires a resolution better than ɛ ˜ 0.5h-1Mpc.

  10. Optimal Power Allocation for CC-HARQ-based Cognitive Radio with Statistical CSI in Nakagami Slow Fading Channels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Ding; Li, Qun

    2017-01-01

    This paper addresses the power allocation problem for cognitive radio (CR) based on hybrid-automatic-repeat-request (HARQ) with chase combining (CC) in Nakagamimslow fading channels. We assume that, instead of the perfect instantaneous channel state information (CSI), only the statistical CSI is available at the secondary user (SU) transmitter. The aim is to minimize the SU outage probability under the primary user (PU) interference outage constraint. Using the Lagrange multiplier method, an iterative and recursive algorithm is derived to obtain the optimal power allocation for each transmission round. Extensive numerical results are presented to illustrate the performance of the proposed algorithm.

  11. Common pitfalls in statistical analysis: “No evidence of effect” versus “evidence of no effect”

    PubMed Central

    Ranganathan, Priya; Pramesh, C. S.; Buyse, Marc

    2015-01-01

    This article is the first in a series exploring common pitfalls in statistical analysis in biomedical research. The power of a clinical trial is the ability to find a difference between treatments, where such a difference exists. At the end of the study, the lack of difference between treatments does not mean that the treatments can be considered equivalent. The distinction between “no evidence of effect” and “evidence of no effect” needs to be understood. PMID:25657905

  12. On Improving the Quality and Interpretation of Environmental Assessments using Statistical Analysis and Geographic Information Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karuppiah, R.; Faldi, A.; Laurenzi, I.; Usadi, A.; Venkatesh, A.

    2014-12-01

    An increasing number of studies are focused on assessing the environmental footprint of different products and processes, especially using life cycle assessment (LCA). This work shows how combining statistical methods and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) with environmental analyses can help improve the quality of results and their interpretation. Most environmental assessments in literature yield single numbers that characterize the environmental impact of a process/product - typically global or country averages, often unchanging in time. In this work, we show how statistical analysis and GIS can help address these limitations. For example, we demonstrate a method to separately quantify uncertainty and variability in the result of LCA models using a power generation case study. This is important for rigorous comparisons between the impacts of different processes. Another challenge is lack of data that can affect the rigor of LCAs. We have developed an approach to estimate environmental impacts of incompletely characterized processes using predictive statistical models. This method is applied to estimate unreported coal power plant emissions in several world regions. There is also a general lack of spatio-temporal characterization of the results in environmental analyses. For instance, studies that focus on water usage do not put in context where and when water is withdrawn. Through the use of hydrological modeling combined with GIS, we quantify water stress on a regional and seasonal basis to understand water supply and demand risks for multiple users. Another example where it is important to consider regional dependency of impacts is when characterizing how agricultural land occupation affects biodiversity in a region. We developed a data-driven methodology used in conjuction with GIS to determine if there is a statistically significant difference between the impacts of growing different crops on different species in various biomes of the world.

  13. Statistical power and utility of meta-analysis methods for cross-phenotype genome-wide association studies.

    PubMed

    Zhu, Zhaozhong; Anttila, Verneri; Smoller, Jordan W; Lee, Phil H

    2018-01-01

    Advances in recent genome wide association studies (GWAS) suggest that pleiotropic effects on human complex traits are widespread. A number of classic and recent meta-analysis methods have been used to identify genetic loci with pleiotropic effects, but the overall performance of these methods is not well understood. In this work, we use extensive simulations and case studies of GWAS datasets to investigate the power and type-I error rates of ten meta-analysis methods. We specifically focus on three conditions commonly encountered in the studies of multiple traits: (1) extensive heterogeneity of genetic effects; (2) characterization of trait-specific association; and (3) inflated correlation of GWAS due to overlapping samples. Although the statistical power is highly variable under distinct study conditions, we found the superior power of several methods under diverse heterogeneity. In particular, classic fixed-effects model showed surprisingly good performance when a variant is associated with more than a half of study traits. As the number of traits with null effects increases, ASSET performed the best along with competitive specificity and sensitivity. With opposite directional effects, CPASSOC featured the first-rate power. However, caution is advised when using CPASSOC for studying genetically correlated traits with overlapping samples. We conclude with a discussion of unresolved issues and directions for future research.

  14. Statistical Properties of Maximum Likelihood Estimators of Power Law Spectra Information

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Howell, L. W.

    2002-01-01

    A simple power law model consisting of a single spectral index, a is believed to be an adequate description of the galactic cosmic-ray (GCR) proton flux at energies below 10(exp 13) eV, with a transition at the knee energy, E(sub k), to a steeper spectral index alpha(sub 2) greater than alpha(sub 1) above E(sub k). The Maximum likelihood (ML) procedure was developed for estimating the single parameter alpha(sub 1) of a simple power law energy spectrum and generalized to estimate the three spectral parameters of the broken power law energy spectrum from simulated detector responses and real cosmic-ray data. The statistical properties of the ML estimator were investigated and shown to have the three desirable properties: (P1) consistency (asymptotically unbiased). (P2) efficiency asymptotically attains the Cramer-Rao minimum variance bound), and (P3) asymptotically normally distributed, under a wide range of potential detector response functions. Attainment of these properties necessarily implies that the ML estimation procedure provides the best unbiased estimator possible. While simulation studies can easily determine if a given estimation procedure provides an unbiased estimate of the spectra information, and whether or not the estimator is approximately normally distributed, attainment of the Cramer-Rao bound (CRB) can only he ascertained by calculating the CRB for an assumed energy spectrum-detector response function combination, which can be quite formidable in practice. However. the effort in calculating the CRB is very worthwhile because it provides the necessary means to compare the efficiency of competing estimation techniques and, furthermore, provides a stopping rule in the search for the best unbiased estimator. Consequently, the CRB for both the simple and broken power law energy spectra are derived herein and the conditions under which they are attained in practice are investigated. The ML technique is then extended to estimate spectra information from

  15. Analysing the lack of Demand Organisation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boxer, Philip; Cohen, Bernard

    1998-07-01

    We seek to develop means of intervention in Enterprises that will enable them to react in an effective, sustainable and timely fashion to changes in the ways that markets and demand are organized; that is, to act strategically. We take an enterprise to be some entity that seeks to provide its clients with services that they value while maintaining its ability to do so in the face of changes in the demands of its clients and in the resources at its disposal. The services that clients value form around what the organization of their demands lack. The concept of strategy therefore rests on critically evaluating the ontology and semantics of the Enterprise in relation to these holes in demand organization. We access ontology and semantics by constructing and manipulating hypothetical, first-order, mathematical models of the Enterprise's services and of its value-adding processes. Because an enterprise is an anticipatory system, its semantic domain must include representations of the enterprise's model of itself and of the market and demand organizations within which it competes. First-order (set) theory provides adequate expressive power here, but alternative, higher order, mathematical frameworks, such as Dubois' hyperincursion, provide inadequate power, particularly in relation to the analysis of the properties of emergence. Knowing exactly why and where this mathematical lack manifests in the analysis process enables effective collaboration between systems analysts and psychoanalysts, and suggest directions for mathematical research.

  16. A follow-up power analysis of the statistical tests used in the Journal of Research in Science Teaching

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Woolley, Thomas W.; Dawson, George O.

    It has been two decades since the first power analysis of a psychological journal and 10 years since the Journal of Research in Science Teaching made its contribution to this debate. One purpose of this article is to investigate what power-related changes, if any, have occurred in science education research over the past decade as a result of the earlier survey. In addition, previous recommendations are expanded and expounded upon within the context of more recent work in this area. The absence of any consistent mode of presenting statistical results, as well as little change with regard to power-related issues are reported. Guidelines for reporting the minimal amount of information demanded for clear and independent evaluation of research results by readers are also proposed.

  17. The N-Pact Factor: Evaluating the Quality of Empirical Journals with Respect to Sample Size and Statistical Power

    PubMed Central

    Fraley, R. Chris; Vazire, Simine

    2014-01-01

    The authors evaluate the quality of research reported in major journals in social-personality psychology by ranking those journals with respect to their N-pact Factors (NF)—the statistical power of the empirical studies they publish to detect typical effect sizes. Power is a particularly important attribute for evaluating research quality because, relative to studies that have low power, studies that have high power are more likely to (a) to provide accurate estimates of effects, (b) to produce literatures with low false positive rates, and (c) to lead to replicable findings. The authors show that the average sample size in social-personality research is 104 and that the power to detect the typical effect size in the field is approximately 50%. Moreover, they show that there is considerable variation among journals in sample sizes and power of the studies they publish, with some journals consistently publishing higher power studies than others. The authors hope that these rankings will be of use to authors who are choosing where to submit their best work, provide hiring and promotion committees with a superior way of quantifying journal quality, and encourage competition among journals to improve their NF rankings. PMID:25296159

  18. Pitfalls in statistical landslide susceptibility modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schröder, Boris; Vorpahl, Peter; Märker, Michael; Elsenbeer, Helmut

    2010-05-01

    The use of statistical methods is a well-established approach to predict landslide occurrence probabilities and to assess landslide susceptibility. This is achieved by applying statistical methods relating historical landslide inventories to topographic indices as predictor variables. In our contribution, we compare several new and powerful methods developed in machine learning and well-established in landscape ecology and macroecology for predicting the distribution of shallow landslides in tropical mountain rainforests in southern Ecuador (among others: boosted regression trees, multivariate adaptive regression splines, maximum entropy). Although these methods are powerful, we think it is necessary to follow a basic set of guidelines to avoid some pitfalls regarding data sampling, predictor selection, and model quality assessment, especially if a comparison of different models is contemplated. We therefore suggest to apply a novel toolbox to evaluate approaches to the statistical modelling of landslide susceptibility. Additionally, we propose some methods to open the "black box" as an inherent part of machine learning methods in order to achieve further explanatory insights into preparatory factors that control landslides. Sampling of training data should be guided by hypotheses regarding processes that lead to slope failure taking into account their respective spatial scales. This approach leads to the selection of a set of candidate predictor variables considered on adequate spatial scales. This set should be checked for multicollinearity in order to facilitate model response curve interpretation. Model quality assesses how well a model is able to reproduce independent observations of its response variable. This includes criteria to evaluate different aspects of model performance, i.e. model discrimination, model calibration, and model refinement. In order to assess a possible violation of the assumption of independency in the training samples or a possible

  19. A statistical survey of ultralow-frequency wave power and polarization in the Hermean magnetosphere.

    PubMed

    James, Matthew K; Bunce, Emma J; Yeoman, Timothy K; Imber, Suzanne M; Korth, Haje

    2016-09-01

    We present a statistical survey of ultralow-frequency wave activity within the Hermean magnetosphere using the entire MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging magnetometer data set. This study is focused upon wave activity with frequencies <0.5 Hz, typically below local ion gyrofrequencies, in order to determine if field line resonances similar to those observed in the terrestrial magnetosphere may be present. Wave activity is mapped to the magnetic equatorial plane of the magnetosphere and to magnetic latitude and local times on Mercury using the KT14 magnetic field model. Wave power mapped to the planetary surface indicates the average location of the polar cap boundary. Compressional wave power is dominant throughout most of the magnetosphere, while azimuthal wave power close to the dayside magnetopause provides evidence that interactions between the magnetosheath and the magnetopause such as the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability may be driving wave activity. Further evidence of this is found in the average wave polarization: left-handed polarized waves dominate the dawnside magnetosphere, while right-handed polarized waves dominate the duskside. A possible field line resonance event is also presented, where a time-of-flight calculation is used to provide an estimated local plasma mass density of ∼240 amu cm -3 .

  20. Lack of anodic capacitance causes power overshoot in microbial fuel cells.

    PubMed

    Peng, Xinhong; Yu, Han; Yu, Hongbing; Wang, Xin

    2013-06-01

    Power overshoot commonly makes the performance evaluation of microbial fuel cells (MFCs) inaccurate. Here, three types of carbon with different capacitance (ultracapacitor activated carbon (UAC), plain activated carbon (PAC) and carbon black (CB)) rolled on stainless steel mesh (SSM) as anodes to investigate the relationship between overshoot and anodic capacitance. It was not observed in all cycles of UAC-MFCs (from Cycle 2 to 4) due to the largest abiotic capacitance (Cm(abiotic)) of 2.1F/cm(2), while this phenomenon was eliminated in PAC-MFCs (Cm(abiotic)=1.6 F/cm(2)) from Cycle 3 and in CB-MFCs (Cm(abiotic)=0.5F/cm(2)) from Cycle 4, indicated that the Cm(abiotic) of the anode stored charges and functioned as electron shuttle to overcome the power overshoot. With bacterial colonization, the transient charge storage in biofilm resulted in a 0.1-0.4F/cm(2) increase in total capacitance for anodes, which was the possible reason for the elimination of power overshoot in PAC/CB-MFCs after multi cycle acclimation. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. The power and promise of RNA-seq in ecology and evolution.

    PubMed

    Todd, Erica V; Black, Michael A; Gemmell, Neil J

    2016-03-01

    Reference is regularly made to the power of new genomic sequencing approaches. Using powerful technology, however, is not the same as having the necessary power to address a research question with statistical robustness. In the rush to adopt new and improved genomic research methods, limitations of technology and experimental design may be initially neglected. Here, we review these issues with regard to RNA sequencing (RNA-seq). RNA-seq adds large-scale transcriptomics to the toolkit of ecological and evolutionary biologists, enabling differential gene expression (DE) studies in nonmodel species without the need for prior genomic resources. High biological variance is typical of field-based gene expression studies and means that larger sample sizes are often needed to achieve the same degree of statistical power as clinical studies based on data from cell lines or inbred animal models. Sequencing costs have plummeted, yet RNA-seq studies still underutilize biological replication. Finite research budgets force a trade-off between sequencing effort and replication in RNA-seq experimental design. However, clear guidelines for negotiating this trade-off, while taking into account study-specific factors affecting power, are currently lacking. Study designs that prioritize sequencing depth over replication fail to capitalize on the power of RNA-seq technology for DE inference. Significant recent research effort has gone into developing statistical frameworks and software tools for power analysis and sample size calculation in the context of RNA-seq DE analysis. We synthesize progress in this area and derive an accessible rule-of-thumb guide for designing powerful RNA-seq experiments relevant in eco-evolutionary and clinical settings alike. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. Good experimental design and statistics can save animals, but how can it be promoted?

    PubMed

    Festing, Michael F W

    2004-06-01

    Surveys of published papers show that there are many errors both in the design of the experiments and in the statistical analysis of the resulting data. This must result in a waste of animals and scientific resources, and it is surely unethical. Scientific quality might be improved, to some extent, by journal editors, but they are constrained by lack of statistical referees and inadequate statistical training of those referees that they do use. Other parties, such as welfare regulators, ethical review committees and individual scientists also have an interest in scientific quality, but they do not seem to be well placed to make the required changes. However, those who fund research would have the power to do something if they could be convinced that it is in their best interests to do so. More examples of the way in which better experimental design has led to improved experiments would be helpful in persuading these funding organisations to take further action.

  3. The Malpractice of Statistical Interpretation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fraas, John W.; Newman, Isadore

    1978-01-01

    Problems associated with the use of gain scores, analysis of covariance, multicollinearity, part and partial correlation, and the lack of rectilinearity in regression are discussed. Particular attention is paid to the misuse of statistical techniques. (JKS)

  4. Improving qPCR telomere length assays: Controlling for well position effects increases statistical power.

    PubMed

    Eisenberg, Dan T A; Kuzawa, Christopher W; Hayes, M Geoffrey

    2015-01-01

    Telomere length (TL) is commonly measured using quantitative PCR (qPCR). Although, easier than the southern blot of terminal restriction fragments (TRF) TL measurement method, one drawback of qPCR is that it introduces greater measurement error and thus reduces the statistical power of analyses. To address a potential source of measurement error, we consider the effect of well position on qPCR TL measurements. qPCR TL data from 3,638 people run on a Bio-Rad iCycler iQ are reanalyzed here. To evaluate measurement validity, correspondence with TRF, age, and between mother and offspring are examined. First, we present evidence for systematic variation in qPCR TL measurements in relation to thermocycler well position. Controlling for these well-position effects consistently improves measurement validity and yields estimated improvements in statistical power equivalent to increasing sample sizes by 16%. We additionally evaluated the linearity of the relationships between telomere and single copy gene control amplicons and between qPCR and TRF measures. We find that, unlike some previous reports, our data exhibit linear relationships. We introduce the standard error in percent, a superior method for quantifying measurement error as compared to the commonly used coefficient of variation. Using this measure, we find that excluding samples with high measurement error does not improve measurement validity in our study. Future studies using block-based thermocyclers should consider well position effects. Since additional information can be gleaned from well position corrections, rerunning analyses of previous results with well position correction could serve as an independent test of the validity of these results. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  5. Power and Attraction to the Counternormative Aspects of Infidelity.

    PubMed

    Lammers, Joris; Maner, Jon

    2016-01-01

    Previous research shows that powerful people are more likely than those lacking power to engage in infidelity. One possible explanation holds (a) that power psychologically releases people from the inhibiting effects of social norms and thus increases their appetite for counternormative forms of sexuality. Two alternative explanations are (b) that power increases appetite for any form of sexuality, normative or counternormative, and (c) that power makes men (but not women) seem more attractive to others and thus increases their access to potential mating opportunities. The current research tested these explanations using correlational data from 610 Dutch men and women. Supporting the first explanation, power's relationship with infidelity was statistically mediated by increased attraction to the secrecy associated with infidelity. Inconsistent with the second explanation, power was linked with infidelity but not with casual sex among singles (a more normative form of sexuality). Inconsistent with the third explanation, the link between power and infidelity was observed just as strongly in women as in men. Findings suggest that power may be associated with infidelity because power draws people to the counternormative aspects of infidelity. Implications for theories of power, sexuality, and gender are discussed.

  6. A Meta-Meta-Analysis: Empirical Review of Statistical Power, Type I Error Rates, Effect Sizes, and Model Selection of Meta-Analyses Published in Psychology

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cafri, Guy; Kromrey, Jeffrey D.; Brannick, Michael T.

    2010-01-01

    This article uses meta-analyses published in "Psychological Bulletin" from 1995 to 2005 to describe meta-analyses in psychology, including examination of statistical power, Type I errors resulting from multiple comparisons, and model choice. Retrospective power estimates indicated that univariate categorical and continuous moderators, individual…

  7. An entropy-based statistic for genomewide association studies.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Jinying; Boerwinkle, Eric; Xiong, Momiao

    2005-07-01

    Efficient genotyping methods and the availability of a large collection of single-nucleotide polymorphisms provide valuable tools for genetic studies of human disease. The standard chi2 statistic for case-control studies, which uses a linear function of allele frequencies, has limited power when the number of marker loci is large. We introduce a novel test statistic for genetic association studies that uses Shannon entropy and a nonlinear function of allele frequencies to amplify the differences in allele and haplotype frequencies to maintain statistical power with large numbers of marker loci. We investigate the relationship between the entropy-based test statistic and the standard chi2 statistic and show that, in most cases, the power of the entropy-based statistic is greater than that of the standard chi2 statistic. The distribution of the entropy-based statistic and the type I error rates are validated using simulation studies. Finally, we apply the new entropy-based test statistic to two real data sets, one for the COMT gene and schizophrenia and one for the MMP-2 gene and esophageal carcinoma, to evaluate the performance of the new method for genetic association studies. The results show that the entropy-based statistic obtained smaller P values than did the standard chi2 statistic.

  8. Conceptualizing a Framework for Advanced Placement Statistics Teaching Knowledge

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Haines, Brenna

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to sketch a conceptualization of a framework for Advanced Placement (AP) Statistics Teaching Knowledge. Recent research continues to problematize the lack of knowledge and preparation among secondary level statistics teachers. The College Board's AP Statistics course continues to grow and gain popularity, but is a…

  9. Statistical Irreversible Thermodynamics in the Framework of Zubarev's Nonequilibrium Statistical Operator Method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luzzi, R.; Vasconcellos, A. R.; Ramos, J. G.; Rodrigues, C. G.

    2018-01-01

    We describe the formalism of statistical irreversible thermodynamics constructed based on Zubarev's nonequilibrium statistical operator (NSO) method, which is a powerful and universal tool for investigating the most varied physical phenomena. We present brief overviews of the statistical ensemble formalism and statistical irreversible thermodynamics. The first can be constructed either based on a heuristic approach or in the framework of information theory in the Jeffreys-Jaynes scheme of scientific inference; Zubarev and his school used both approaches in formulating the NSO method. We describe the main characteristics of statistical irreversible thermodynamics and discuss some particular considerations of several authors. We briefly describe how Rosenfeld, Bohr, and Prigogine proposed to derive a thermodynamic uncertainty principle.

  10. Hypothesis-Testing Demands Trustworthy Data—A Simulation Approach to Inferential Statistics Advocating the Research Program Strategy

    PubMed Central

    Krefeld-Schwalb, Antonia; Witte, Erich H.; Zenker, Frank

    2018-01-01

    In psychology as elsewhere, the main statistical inference strategy to establish empirical effects is null-hypothesis significance testing (NHST). The recent failure to replicate allegedly well-established NHST-results, however, implies that such results lack sufficient statistical power, and thus feature unacceptably high error-rates. Using data-simulation to estimate the error-rates of NHST-results, we advocate the research program strategy (RPS) as a superior methodology. RPS integrates Frequentist with Bayesian inference elements, and leads from a preliminary discovery against a (random) H0-hypothesis to a statistical H1-verification. Not only do RPS-results feature significantly lower error-rates than NHST-results, RPS also addresses key-deficits of a “pure” Frequentist and a standard Bayesian approach. In particular, RPS aggregates underpowered results safely. RPS therefore provides a tool to regain the trust the discipline had lost during the ongoing replicability-crisis. PMID:29740363

  11. Hypothesis-Testing Demands Trustworthy Data-A Simulation Approach to Inferential Statistics Advocating the Research Program Strategy.

    PubMed

    Krefeld-Schwalb, Antonia; Witte, Erich H; Zenker, Frank

    2018-01-01

    In psychology as elsewhere, the main statistical inference strategy to establish empirical effects is null-hypothesis significance testing (NHST). The recent failure to replicate allegedly well-established NHST-results, however, implies that such results lack sufficient statistical power, and thus feature unacceptably high error-rates. Using data-simulation to estimate the error-rates of NHST-results, we advocate the research program strategy (RPS) as a superior methodology. RPS integrates Frequentist with Bayesian inference elements, and leads from a preliminary discovery against a (random) H 0 -hypothesis to a statistical H 1 -verification. Not only do RPS-results feature significantly lower error-rates than NHST-results, RPS also addresses key-deficits of a "pure" Frequentist and a standard Bayesian approach. In particular, RPS aggregates underpowered results safely. RPS therefore provides a tool to regain the trust the discipline had lost during the ongoing replicability-crisis.

  12. Reporting Statistical Results in Medical Journals

    PubMed Central

    Arifin, Wan Nor; Sarimah, Abdullah; Norsa’adah, Bachok; Najib Majdi, Yaacob; Siti-Azrin, Ab Hamid; Kamarul Imran, Musa; Aniza, Abd Aziz; Naing, Lin

    2016-01-01

    Statistical editors of the Malaysian Journal of Medical Sciences (MJMS) must go through many submitted manuscripts, focusing on the statistical aspect of the manuscripts. However, the editors notice myriad styles of reporting the statistical results, which are not standardised among the authors. This could be due to the lack of clear written instructions on reporting statistics in the guidelines for authors. The aim of this editorial is to briefly outline reporting methods for several important and common statistical results. It will also address a number of common mistakes made by the authors. The editorial will serve as a guideline for authors aiming to publish in the MJMS as well as in other medical journals. PMID:27904419

  13. Teaching Nonparametric Statistics Using Student Instrumental Values.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Anderson, Jonathan W.; Diddams, Margaret

    Nonparametric statistics are often difficult to teach in introduction to statistics courses because of the lack of real-world examples. This study demonstrated how teachers can use differences in the rankings and ratings of undergraduate and graduate values to discuss: (1) ipsative and normative scaling; (2) uses of the Mann-Whitney U-test; and…

  14. Statistical Analysis of Large-Scale Structure of Universe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tugay, A. V.

    While galaxy cluster catalogs were compiled many decades ago, other structural elements of cosmic web are detected at definite level only in the newest works. For example, extragalactic filaments were described by velocity field and SDSS galaxy distribution during the last years. Large-scale structure of the Universe could be also mapped in the future using ATHENA observations in X-rays and SKA in radio band. Until detailed observations are not available for the most volume of Universe, some integral statistical parameters can be used for its description. Such methods as galaxy correlation function, power spectrum, statistical moments and peak statistics are commonly used with this aim. The parameters of power spectrum and other statistics are important for constraining the models of dark matter, dark energy, inflation and brane cosmology. In the present work we describe the growth of large-scale density fluctuations in one- and three-dimensional case with Fourier harmonics of hydrodynamical parameters. In result we get power-law relation for the matter power spectrum.

  15. Case Studies for the Statistical Design of Experiments Applied to Powered Rotor Wind Tunnel Tests

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Overmeyer, Austin D.; Tanner, Philip E.; Martin, Preston B.; Commo, Sean A.

    2015-01-01

    The application of statistical Design of Experiments (DOE) to helicopter wind tunnel testing was explored during two powered rotor wind tunnel entries during the summers of 2012 and 2013. These tests were performed jointly by the U.S. Army Aviation Development Directorate Joint Research Program Office and NASA Rotary Wing Project Office, currently the Revolutionary Vertical Lift Project, at NASA Langley Research Center located in Hampton, Virginia. Both entries were conducted in the 14- by 22-Foot Subsonic Tunnel with a small portion of the overall tests devoted to developing case studies of the DOE approach as it applies to powered rotor testing. A 16-47 times reduction in the number of data points required was estimated by comparing the DOE approach to conventional testing methods. The average error for the DOE surface response model for the OH-58F test was 0.95 percent and 4.06 percent for drag and download, respectively. The DOE surface response model of the Active Flow Control test captured the drag within 4.1 percent of measured data. The operational differences between the two testing approaches are identified, but did not prevent the safe operation of the powered rotor model throughout the DOE test matrices.

  16. Controlling the joint local false discovery rate is more powerful than meta-analysis methods in joint analysis of summary statistics from multiple genome-wide association studies.

    PubMed

    Jiang, Wei; Yu, Weichuan

    2017-02-15

    In genome-wide association studies (GWASs) of common diseases/traits, we often analyze multiple GWASs with the same phenotype together to discover associated genetic variants with higher power. Since it is difficult to access data with detailed individual measurements, summary-statistics-based meta-analysis methods have become popular to jointly analyze datasets from multiple GWASs. In this paper, we propose a novel summary-statistics-based joint analysis method based on controlling the joint local false discovery rate (Jlfdr). We prove that our method is the most powerful summary-statistics-based joint analysis method when controlling the false discovery rate at a certain level. In particular, the Jlfdr-based method achieves higher power than commonly used meta-analysis methods when analyzing heterogeneous datasets from multiple GWASs. Simulation experiments demonstrate the superior power of our method over meta-analysis methods. Also, our method discovers more associations than meta-analysis methods from empirical datasets of four phenotypes. The R-package is available at: http://bioinformatics.ust.hk/Jlfdr.html . eeyu@ust.hk. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

  17. Design of durability test protocol for vehicular fuel cell systems operated in power-follow mode based on statistical results of on-road data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Liangfei; Reimer, Uwe; Li, Jianqiu; Huang, Haiyan; Hu, Zunyan; Jiang, Hongliang; Janßen, Holger; Ouyang, Minggao; Lehnert, Werner

    2018-02-01

    City buses using polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) fuel cells are considered to be the most likely fuel cell vehicles to be commercialized in China. The technical specifications of the fuel cell systems (FCSs) these buses are equipped with will differ based on the powertrain configurations and vehicle control strategies, but can generally be classified into the power-follow and soft-run modes. Each mode imposes different levels of electrochemical stress on the fuel cells. Evaluating the aging behavior of fuel cell stacks under the conditions encountered in fuel cell buses requires new durability test protocols based on statistical results obtained during actual driving tests. In this study, we propose a systematic design method for fuel cell durability test protocols that correspond to the power-follow mode based on three parameters for different fuel cell load ranges. The powertrain configurations and control strategy are described herein, followed by a presentation of the statistical data for the duty cycles of FCSs in one city bus in the demonstration project. Assessment protocols are presented based on the statistical results using mathematical optimization methods, and are compared to existing protocols with respect to common factors, such as time at open circuit voltage and root-mean-square power.

  18. Using Technology to Prompt Good Questions about Distributions in Statistics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nabbout-Cheiban, Marie; Fisher, Forest; Edwards, Michael Todd

    2017-01-01

    The Common Core State Standards for Mathematics envisions data analysis as a key component of K-grade 12 mathematics instruction with statistics introduced in the early grades. Nonetheless, deficiencies in statistical learning persist throughout elementary school and beyond. Too often, mathematics teachers lack the statistical knowledge for…

  19. A computational framework for estimating statistical power and planning hypothesis-driven experiments involving one-dimensional biomechanical continua.

    PubMed

    Pataky, Todd C; Robinson, Mark A; Vanrenterghem, Jos

    2018-01-03

    Statistical power assessment is an important component of hypothesis-driven research but until relatively recently (mid-1990s) no methods were available for assessing power in experiments involving continuum data and in particular those involving one-dimensional (1D) time series. The purpose of this study was to describe how continuum-level power analyses can be used to plan hypothesis-driven biomechanics experiments involving 1D data. In particular, we demonstrate how theory- and pilot-driven 1D effect modeling can be used for sample-size calculations for both single- and multi-subject experiments. For theory-driven power analysis we use the minimum jerk hypothesis and single-subject experiments involving straight-line, planar reaching. For pilot-driven power analysis we use a previously published knee kinematics dataset. Results show that powers on the order of 0.8 can be achieved with relatively small sample sizes, five and ten for within-subject minimum jerk analysis and between-subject knee kinematics, respectively. However, the appropriate sample size depends on a priori justifications of biomechanical meaning and effect size. The main advantage of the proposed technique is that it encourages a priori justification regarding the clinical and/or scientific meaning of particular 1D effects, thereby robustly structuring subsequent experimental inquiry. In short, it shifts focus from a search for significance to a search for non-rejectable hypotheses. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Electric power annual 1992

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Not Available

    The Electric Power Annual presents a summary of electric utility statistics at national, regional and State levels. The objective of the publication is to provide industry decisionmakers, government policymakers, analysts and the general public with historical data that may be used in understanding US electricity markets. The Electric Power Annual is prepared by the Survey Management Division; Office of Coal, Nuclear, Electric and Alternate Fuels; Energy Information Administration (EIA); US Department of Energy. ``The US Electric Power Industry at a Glance`` section presents a profile of the electric power industry ownership and performance, and a review of key statistics formore » the year. Subsequent sections present data on generating capability, including proposed capability additions; net generation; fossil-fuel statistics; retail sales; revenue; financial statistics; environmental statistics; electric power transactions; demand-side management; and nonutility power producers. In addition, the appendices provide supplemental data on major disturbances and unusual occurrences in US electricity power systems. Each section contains related text and tables and refers the reader to the appropriate publication that contains more detailed data on the subject matter. Monetary values in this publication are expressed in nominal terms.« less

  1. Statistical Rick Estimation for Communication System Design --- A Preliminary Look

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Babuscia, A.; Cheung, K.-M.

    2012-02-01

    Spacecraft are complex systems that involve different subsystems with multiple relationships among them. For these reasons, the design of a spacecraft is a time-evolving process that starts from requirements and evolves over time across different design phases. During this process, a lot of changes can happen. They can affect mass and power at the component level, at the subsystem level, and even at the system level. Each spacecraft has to respect the overall constraints in terms of mass and power: for this reason, it is important to be sure that the design does not exceed these limitations. Current practice in system models primarily deals with this problem, allocating margins on individual components and on individual subsystems. However, a statistical characterization of the fluctuations in mass and power of the overall system (i.e., the spacecraft) is missing. This lack of adequate statistical characterization would result in a risky spacecraft design that might not fit the mission constraints and requirements, or in a conservative design that might not fully utilize the available resources. Due to the complexity of the problem and to the different expertise and knowledge required to develop a complete risk model for a spacecraft design, this article is focused on risk estimation for a specific spacecraft subsystem: the communication subsystem. The current research aims to be a proof of concept of a risk-based design optimization approach, which can then be further expanded to the design of other subsystems as well as to the whole spacecraft. The objective of this research is to develop a mathematical approach to quantify the likelihood that the major design drivers of mass and power of a space communication system would meet the spacecraft and mission requirements and constraints through the mission design lifecycle. Using this approach, the communication system designers will be able to evaluate and to compare different communication architectures in a risk

  2. A d-statistic for single-case designs that is equivalent to the usual between-groups d-statistic.

    PubMed

    Shadish, William R; Hedges, Larry V; Pustejovsky, James E; Boyajian, Jonathan G; Sullivan, Kristynn J; Andrade, Alma; Barrientos, Jeannette L

    2014-01-01

    We describe a standardised mean difference statistic (d) for single-case designs that is equivalent to the usual d in between-groups experiments. We show how it can be used to summarise treatment effects over cases within a study, to do power analyses in planning new studies and grant proposals, and to meta-analyse effects across studies of the same question. We discuss limitations of this d-statistic, and possible remedies to them. Even so, this d-statistic is better founded statistically than other effect size measures for single-case design, and unlike many general linear model approaches such as multilevel modelling or generalised additive models, it produces a standardised effect size that can be integrated over studies with different outcome measures. SPSS macros for both effect size computation and power analysis are available.

  3. The influence of control group reproduction on the statistical power of the Environmental Protection Agency's Medaka Extended One Generation Reproduction Test (MEOGRT).

    PubMed

    Flynn, Kevin; Swintek, Joe; Johnson, Rodney

    2017-02-01

    Because of various Congressional mandates to protect the environment from endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs), the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) initiated the Endocrine Disruptor Screening Program. In the context of this framework, the Office of Research and Development within the USEPA developed the Medaka Extended One Generation Reproduction Test (MEOGRT) to characterize the endocrine action of a suspected EDC. One important endpoint of the MEOGRT is fecundity of medaka breeding pairs. Power analyses were conducted to determine the number of replicates needed in proposed test designs and to determine the effects that varying reproductive parameters (e.g. mean fecundity, variance, and days with no egg production) would have on the statistical power of the test. The MEOGRT Reproduction Power Analysis Tool (MRPAT) is a software tool developed to expedite these power analyses by both calculating estimates of the needed reproductive parameters (e.g. population mean and variance) and performing the power analysis under user specified scenarios. Example scenarios are detailed that highlight the importance of the reproductive parameters on statistical power. When control fecundity is increased from 21 to 38 eggs per pair per day and the variance decreased from 49 to 20, the gain in power is equivalent to increasing replication by 2.5 times. On the other hand, if 10% of the breeding pairs, including controls, do not spawn, the power to detect a 40% decrease in fecundity drops to 0.54 from nearly 0.98 when all pairs have some level of egg production. Perhaps most importantly, MRPAT was used to inform the decision making process that lead to the final recommendation of the MEOGRT to have 24 control breeding pairs and 12 breeding pairs in each exposure group. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  4. Selection of nontarget arthropod taxa for field research on transgenic insecticidal crops: using empirical data and statistical power.

    PubMed

    Prasifka, J R; Hellmich, R L; Dively, G P; Higgins, L S; Dixon, P M; Duan, J J

    2008-02-01

    One of the possible adverse effects of transgenic insecticidal crops is the unintended decline in the abundance of nontarget arthropods. Field trials designed to evaluate potential nontarget effects can be more complex than expected because decisions to conduct field trials and the selection of taxa to include are not always guided by the results of laboratory tests. Also, recent studies emphasize the potential for indirect effects (adverse impacts to nontarget arthropods without feeding directly on plant tissues), which are difficult to predict because of interactions among nontarget arthropods, target pests, and transgenic crops. As a consequence, field studies may attempt to monitor expansive lists of arthropod taxa, making the design of such broad studies more difficult and reducing the likelihood of detecting any negative effects that might be present. To improve the taxonomic focus and statistical rigor of future studies, existing field data and corresponding power analysis may provide useful guidance. Analysis of control data from several nontarget field trials using repeated-measures designs suggests that while detection of small effects may require considerable increases in replication, there are taxa from different ecological roles that are sampled effectively using standard methods. The use of statistical power to guide selection of taxa for nontarget trials reflects scientists' inability to predict the complex interactions among arthropod taxa, particularly when laboratory trials fail to provide guidance on which groups are more likely to be affected. However, scientists still may exercise judgment, including taxa that are not included in or supported by power analyses.

  5. Sex differences in discriminative power of volleyball game-related statistics.

    PubMed

    João, Paulo Vicente; Leite, Nuno; Mesquita, Isabel; Sampaio, Jaime

    2010-12-01

    To identify sex differences in volleyball game-related statistics, the game-related statistics of several World Championships in 2007 (N=132) were analyzed using the software VIS from the International Volleyball Federation. Discriminant analysis was used to identify the game-related statistics which better discriminated performances by sex. Analysis yielded an emphasis on fault serves (SC = -.40), shot spikes (SC = .40), and reception digs (SC = .31). Specific robust numbers represent that considerable variability was evident in the game-related statistics profile, as men's volleyball games were better associated with terminal actions (errors of service), and women's volleyball games were characterized by continuous actions (in defense and attack). These differences may be related to the anthropometric and physiological differences between women and men and their influence on performance profiles.

  6. Apathy in aging: are lack of interest and lack of initiative dissociable?

    PubMed

    Esposito, Fabienne; Rochat, Lucien; Juillerat Van der Linden, Anne-Claude; Lekeu, Françoise; Charnallet, Annik; Van der Linden, Martial

    2014-01-01

    Apathy is common in aging and generally defined on the basis of three dimensions: lack of initiative, lack of interest and emotional blunting. Curiously, no study until now has examined the associations and dissociations between these dimensions in elderly people (with or without dementia). These questions were addressed in two studies. In the first study, we explored the distribution of scores and the relationships between the three dimensions of apathy in 56 patients with dementia, focusing mainly on lack of initiative and lack of interest. Apathy was hetero-evaluated with the Apathy Inventory (AI), a scale widely used to assess the apathy dimensions in aging. In the second study, given the AI's limitations, we investigated in more detail the relationship between lack of initiative and interest in 115 elderly people using a new questionnaire specifically designed to assess these two dimensions. Results showed that lack of initiative was closely related to lack of interest (Study 1). Although we used a more specific questionnaire, these facets of apathy did not constitute two separable dimensions, but reflected a common main factor of apathy in aging (Study 2). Thus, the distinction between lack of initiative and lack of interest seems questionable. Only a multifactorial approach that includes the various psychological factors involved in apathy would enable one to gain a better understanding of the different manifestations of apathy and to highlight possible dissociations between them. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Novel statistical tools for management of public databases facilitate community-wide replicability and control of false discovery.

    PubMed

    Rosset, Saharon; Aharoni, Ehud; Neuvirth, Hani

    2014-07-01

    Issues of publication bias, lack of replicability, and false discovery have long plagued the genetics community. Proper utilization of public and shared data resources presents an opportunity to ameliorate these problems. We present an approach to public database management that we term Quality Preserving Database (QPD). It enables perpetual use of the database for testing statistical hypotheses while controlling false discovery and avoiding publication bias on the one hand, and maintaining testing power on the other hand. We demonstrate it on a use case of a replication server for GWAS findings, underlining its practical utility. We argue that a shift to using QPD in managing current and future biological databases will significantly enhance the community's ability to make efficient and statistically sound use of the available data resources. © 2014 WILEY PERIODICALS, INC.

  8. Identifying Wave-Particle Interactions in the Solar Wind using Statistical Correlations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Broiles, T. W.; Jian, L. K.; Gary, S. P.; Lepri, S. T.; Stevens, M. L.

    2017-12-01

    Heavy ions are a trace component of the solar wind, which can resonate with plasma waves, causing heating and acceleration relative to the bulk plasma. While wave-particle interactions are generally accepted as the cause of heavy ion heating and acceleration, observations to constrain the physics are lacking. In this work, we statistically link specific wave modes to heavy ion heating and acceleration. We have computed the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) of transverse and compressional magnetic waves between 0 and 5.5 Hz using 9 days of ACE and Wind Magnetometer data. The FFTs are averaged over plasma measurement cycles to compute statistical correlations between magnetic wave power at each discrete frequency, and ion kinetic properties measured by ACE/SWICS and Wind/SWE. The results show that lower frequency transverse oscillations (< 0.2 Hz) and higher frequency compressional oscillations (> 0.4 Hz) are positively correlated with enhancements in the heavy ion thermal and drift speeds. Moreover, the correlation results for the He2+ and O6+ were similar on most days. The correlations were often weak, but most days had some frequencies that correlated with statistical significance. This work suggests that the solar wind heavy ions are possibly being heated and accelerated by both transverse and compressional waves at different frequencies.

  9. Statistics for nuclear engineers and scientists. Part 1. Basic statistical inference

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Beggs, W.J.

    1981-02-01

    This report is intended for the use of engineers and scientists working in the nuclear industry, especially at the Bettis Atomic Power Laboratory. It serves as the basis for several Bettis in-house statistics courses. The objectives of the report are to introduce the reader to the language and concepts of statistics and to provide a basic set of techniques to apply to problems of the collection and analysis of data. Part 1 covers subjects of basic inference. The subjects include: descriptive statistics; probability; simple inference for normally distributed populations, and for non-normal populations as well; comparison of two populations; themore » analysis of variance; quality control procedures; and linear regression analysis.« less

  10. The intermediates take it all: asymptotics of higher criticism statistics and a powerful alternative based on equal local levels.

    PubMed

    Gontscharuk, Veronika; Landwehr, Sandra; Finner, Helmut

    2015-01-01

    The higher criticism (HC) statistic, which can be seen as a normalized version of the famous Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic, has a long history, dating back to the mid seventies. Originally, HC statistics were used in connection with goodness of fit (GOF) tests but they recently gained some attention in the context of testing the global null hypothesis in high dimensional data. The continuing interest for HC seems to be inspired by a series of nice asymptotic properties related to this statistic. For example, unlike Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests, GOF tests based on the HC statistic are known to be asymptotically sensitive in the moderate tails, hence it is favorably applied for detecting the presence of signals in sparse mixture models. However, some questions around the asymptotic behavior of the HC statistic are still open. We focus on two of them, namely, why a specific intermediate range is crucial for GOF tests based on the HC statistic and why the convergence of the HC distribution to the limiting one is extremely slow. Moreover, the inconsistency in the asymptotic and finite behavior of the HC statistic prompts us to provide a new HC test that has better finite properties than the original HC test while showing the same asymptotics. This test is motivated by the asymptotic behavior of the so-called local levels related to the original HC test. By means of numerical calculations and simulations we show that the new HC test is typically more powerful than the original HC test in normal mixture models. © 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  11. An Investigation of the Overlap Between the Statistical Discrete Gust and the Power Spectral Density Analysis Methods

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Perry, Boyd, III; Pototzky, Anthony S.; Woods, Jessica A.

    1989-01-01

    The results of a NASA investigation of a claimed Overlap between two gust response analysis methods: the Statistical Discrete Gust (SDG) Method and the Power Spectral Density (PSD) Method are presented. The claim is that the ratio of an SDG response to the corresponding PSD response is 10.4. Analytical results presented for several different airplanes at several different flight conditions indicate that such an Overlap does appear to exist. However, the claim was not met precisely: a scatter of up to about 10 percent about the 10.4 factor can be expected.

  12. A Comparison of the Performance of Advanced Statistical Techniques for the Refinement of Day-ahead and Longer NWP-based Wind Power Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zack, J. W.

    2015-12-01

    Predictions from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are the foundation for wind power forecasts for day-ahead and longer forecast horizons. The NWP models directly produce three-dimensional wind forecasts on their respective computational grids. These can be interpolated to the location and time of interest. However, these direct predictions typically contain significant systematic errors ("biases"). This is due to a variety of factors including the limited space-time resolution of the NWP models and shortcomings in the model's representation of physical processes. It has become common practice to attempt to improve the raw NWP forecasts by statistically adjusting them through a procedure that is widely known as Model Output Statistics (MOS). The challenge is to identify complex patterns of systematic errors and then use this knowledge to adjust the NWP predictions. The MOS-based improvements are the basis for much of the value added by commercial wind power forecast providers. There are an enormous number of statistical approaches that can be used to generate the MOS adjustments to the raw NWP forecasts. In order to obtain insight into the potential value of some of the newer and more sophisticated statistical techniques often referred to as "machine learning methods" a MOS-method comparison experiment has been performed for wind power generation facilities in 6 wind resource areas of California. The underlying NWP models that provided the raw forecasts were the two primary operational models of the US National Weather Service: the GFS and NAM models. The focus was on 1- and 2-day ahead forecasts of the hourly wind-based generation. The statistical methods evaluated included: (1) screening multiple linear regression, which served as a baseline method, (2) artificial neural networks, (3) a decision-tree approach called random forests, (4) gradient boosted regression based upon an decision-tree algorithm, (5) support vector regression and (6) analog ensemble

  13. The Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) as an adjunct to pharmacokinetic analysis.

    PubMed

    Mather, L E; Austin, K L

    1983-01-01

    Computer techniques for numerical analysis are well known to pharmacokineticists. Powerful techniques for data file management have been developed by social scientists but have, in general, been ignored by pharmacokineticists because of their apparent lack of ability to interface with pharmacokinetic programs. Extensive use has been made of the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) for its data handling capabilities, but at the same time, techniques have been developed within SPSS to interface with pharmacokinetic programs of the users' choice and to carry out a variety of user-defined pharmacokinetic tasks within SPSS commands, apart from the expected variety of statistical tasks. Because it is based on a ubiquitous package, this methodology has all of the benefits of excellent documentation, interchangeability between different types and sizes of machines and true portability of techniques and data files. An example is given of the total management of a pharmacokinetic study previously reported in the literature by the authors.

  14. IGESS: a statistical approach to integrating individual-level genotype data and summary statistics in genome-wide association studies.

    PubMed

    Dai, Mingwei; Ming, Jingsi; Cai, Mingxuan; Liu, Jin; Yang, Can; Wan, Xiang; Xu, Zongben

    2017-09-15

    Results from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) suggest that a complex phenotype is often affected by many variants with small effects, known as 'polygenicity'. Tens of thousands of samples are often required to ensure statistical power of identifying these variants with small effects. However, it is often the case that a research group can only get approval for the access to individual-level genotype data with a limited sample size (e.g. a few hundreds or thousands). Meanwhile, summary statistics generated using single-variant-based analysis are becoming publicly available. The sample sizes associated with the summary statistics datasets are usually quite large. How to make the most efficient use of existing abundant data resources largely remains an open question. In this study, we propose a statistical approach, IGESS, to increasing statistical power of identifying risk variants and improving accuracy of risk prediction by i ntegrating individual level ge notype data and s ummary s tatistics. An efficient algorithm based on variational inference is developed to handle the genome-wide analysis. Through comprehensive simulation studies, we demonstrated the advantages of IGESS over the methods which take either individual-level data or summary statistics data as input. We applied IGESS to perform integrative analysis of Crohns Disease from WTCCC and summary statistics from other studies. IGESS was able to significantly increase the statistical power of identifying risk variants and improve the risk prediction accuracy from 63.2% ( ±0.4% ) to 69.4% ( ±0.1% ) using about 240 000 variants. The IGESS software is available at https://github.com/daviddaigithub/IGESS . zbxu@xjtu.edu.cn or xwan@comp.hkbu.edu.hk or eeyang@hkbu.edu.hk. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author (2017). Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

  15. Evaluating the statistical methodology of randomized trials on dentin hypersensitivity management.

    PubMed

    Matranga, Domenica; Matera, Federico; Pizzo, Giuseppe

    2017-12-27

    The present study aimed to evaluate the characteristics and quality of statistical methodology used in clinical studies on dentin hypersensitivity management. An electronic search was performed for data published from 2009 to 2014 by using PubMed, Ovid/MEDLINE, and Cochrane Library databases. The primary search terms were used in combination. Eligibility criteria included randomized clinical trials that evaluated the efficacy of desensitizing agents in terms of reducing dentin hypersensitivity. A total of 40 studies were considered eligible for assessment of quality statistical methodology. The four main concerns identified were i) use of nonparametric tests in the presence of large samples, coupled with lack of information about normality and equality of variances of the response; ii) lack of P-value adjustment for multiple comparisons; iii) failure to account for interactions between treatment and follow-up time; and iv) no information about the number of teeth examined per patient and the consequent lack of cluster-specific approach in data analysis. Owing to these concerns, statistical methodology was judged as inappropriate in 77.1% of the 35 studies that used parametric methods. Additional studies with appropriate statistical analysis are required to obtain appropriate assessment of the efficacy of desensitizing agents.

  16. Inferring Demographic History Using Two-Locus Statistics.

    PubMed

    Ragsdale, Aaron P; Gutenkunst, Ryan N

    2017-06-01

    Population demographic history may be learned from contemporary genetic variation data. Methods based on aggregating the statistics of many single loci into an allele frequency spectrum (AFS) have proven powerful, but such methods ignore potentially informative patterns of linkage disequilibrium (LD) between neighboring loci. To leverage such patterns, we developed a composite-likelihood framework for inferring demographic history from aggregated statistics of pairs of loci. Using this framework, we show that two-locus statistics are more sensitive to demographic history than single-locus statistics such as the AFS. In particular, two-locus statistics escape the notorious confounding of depth and duration of a bottleneck, and they provide a means to estimate effective population size based on the recombination rather than mutation rate. We applied our approach to a Zambian population of Drosophila melanogaster Notably, using both single- and two-locus statistics, we inferred a substantially lower ancestral effective population size than previous works and did not infer a bottleneck history. Together, our results demonstrate the broad potential for two-locus statistics to enable powerful population genetic inference. Copyright © 2017 by the Genetics Society of America.

  17. Using Statistical Mechanics and Entropy Principles to Interpret Variability in Power Law Models of the Streamflow Recession

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dralle, D.; Karst, N.; Thompson, S. E.

    2015-12-01

    Multiple competing theories suggest that power law behavior governs the observed first-order dynamics of streamflow recessions - the important process by which catchments dry-out via the stream network, altering the availability of surface water resources and in-stream habitat. Frequently modeled as: dq/dt = -aqb, recessions typically exhibit a high degree of variability, even within a single catchment, as revealed by significant shifts in the values of "a" and "b" across recession events. One potential source of this variability lies in underlying, hard-to-observe fluctuations in how catchment water storage is partitioned amongst distinct storage elements, each having different discharge behaviors. Testing this and competing hypotheses with widely available streamflow timeseries, however, has been hindered by a power law scaling artifact that obscures meaningful covariation between the recession parameters, "a" and "b". Here we briefly outline a technique that removes this artifact, revealing intriguing new patterns in the joint distribution of recession parameters. Using long-term flow data from catchments in Northern California, we explore temporal variations, and find that the "a" parameter varies strongly with catchment wetness. Then we explore how the "b" parameter changes with "a", and find that measures of its variation are maximized at intermediate "a" values. We propose an interpretation of this pattern based on statistical mechanics, meaning "b" can be viewed as an indicator of the catchment "microstate" - i.e. the partitioning of storage - and "a" as a measure of the catchment macrostate (i.e. the total storage). In statistical mechanics, entropy (i.e. microstate variance, that is the variance of "b") is maximized for intermediate values of extensive variables (i.e. wetness, "a"), as observed in the recession data. This interpretation of "a" and "b" was supported by model runs using a multiple-reservoir catchment toy model, and lends support to the

  18. The Effect of Student-Driven Projects on the Development of Statistical Reasoning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sovak, Melissa M.

    2010-01-01

    Research has shown that even if students pass a standard introductory statistics course, they often still lack the ability to reason statistically. Many instructional techniques for enhancing the development of statistical reasoning have been discussed, although there is often little to no experimental evidence that they produce effective results…

  19. Tsallis p⊥ distribution from statistical clusters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bialas, A.

    2015-07-01

    It is shown that the transverse momentum distributions of particles emerging from the decay of statistical clusters, distributed according to a power law in their transverse energy, closely resemble those following from the Tsallis non-extensive statistical model. The experimental data are well reproduced with the cluster temperature T ≈ 160 MeV.

  20. Précis of statistical significance: rationale, validity, and utility.

    PubMed

    Chow, S L

    1998-04-01

    The null-hypothesis significance-test procedure (NHSTP) is defended in the context of the theory-corroboration experiment, as well as the following contrasts: (a) substantive hypotheses versus statistical hypotheses, (b) theory corroboration versus statistical hypothesis testing, (c) theoretical inference versus statistical decision, (d) experiments versus nonexperimental studies, and (e) theory corroboration versus treatment assessment. The null hypothesis can be true because it is the hypothesis that errors are randomly distributed in data. Moreover, the null hypothesis is never used as a categorical proposition. Statistical significance means only that chance influences can be excluded as an explanation of data; it does not identify the nonchance factor responsible. The experimental conclusion is drawn with the inductive principle underlying the experimental design. A chain of deductive arguments gives rise to the theoretical conclusion via the experimental conclusion. The anomalous relationship between statistical significance and the effect size often used to criticize NHSTP is more apparent than real. The absolute size of the effect is not an index of evidential support for the substantive hypothesis. Nor is the effect size, by itself, informative as to the practical importance of the research result. Being a conditional probability, statistical power cannot be the a priori probability of statistical significance. The validity of statistical power is debatable because statistical significance is determined with a single sampling distribution of the test statistic based on H0, whereas it takes two distributions to represent statistical power or effect size. Sample size should not be determined in the mechanical manner envisaged in power analysis. It is inappropriate to criticize NHSTP for nonstatistical reasons. At the same time, neither effect size, nor confidence interval estimate, nor posterior probability can be used to exclude chance as an explanation of

  1. A Pilot Study Teaching Metrology in an Introductory Statistics Course

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Casleton, Emily; Beyler, Amy; Genschel, Ulrike; Wilson, Alyson

    2014-01-01

    Undergraduate students who have just completed an introductory statistics course often lack deep understanding of variability and enthusiasm for the field of statistics. This paper argues that by introducing the commonly underemphasized concept of measurement error, students will have a better chance of attaining both. We further present lecture…

  2. Investigation of the Statistics of Pure Tone Sound Power Injection from Low Frequency, Finite Sized Sources in a Reverberant Room

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, Wayne Farrior

    1973-01-01

    The effect of finite source size on the power statistics in a reverberant room for pure tone excitation was investigated. Theoretical results indicate that the standard deviation of low frequency, pure tone finite sources is always less than that predicted by point source theory and considerably less when the source dimension approaches one-half an acoustic wavelength or greater. A supporting experimental study was conducted utilizing an eight inch loudspeaker and a 30 inch loudspeaker at eleven source positions. The resulting standard deviation of sound power output of the smaller speaker is in excellent agreement with both the derived finite source theory and existing point source theory, if the theoretical data is adjusted to account for experimental incomplete spatial averaging. However, the standard deviation of sound power output of the larger speaker is measurably lower than point source theory indicates, but is in good agreement with the finite source theory.

  3. An investigation of the 'Overlap' between the Statistical-Discrete-Gust and the Power-Spectral-Density analysis methods

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Perry, Boyd, III; Pototzky, Anthony S.; Woods, Jessica A.

    1989-01-01

    This paper presents the results of a NASA investigation of a claimed 'Overlap' between two gust response analysis methods: the Statistical Discrete Gust (SDG) method and the Power Spectral Density (PSD) method. The claim is that the ratio of an SDG response to the corresponding PSD response is 10.4. Analytical results presented in this paper for several different airplanes at several different flight conditions indicate that such an 'Overlap' does appear to exist. However, the claim was not met precisely: a scatter of up to about 10 percent about the 10.4 factor can be expected.

  4. A new u-statistic with superior design sensitivity in matched observational studies.

    PubMed

    Rosenbaum, Paul R

    2011-09-01

    In an observational or nonrandomized study of treatment effects, a sensitivity analysis indicates the magnitude of bias from unmeasured covariates that would need to be present to alter the conclusions of a naïve analysis that presumes adjustments for observed covariates suffice to remove all bias. The power of sensitivity analysis is the probability that it will reject a false hypothesis about treatment effects allowing for a departure from random assignment of a specified magnitude; in particular, if this specified magnitude is "no departure" then this is the same as the power of a randomization test in a randomized experiment. A new family of u-statistics is proposed that includes Wilcoxon's signed rank statistic but also includes other statistics with substantially higher power when a sensitivity analysis is performed in an observational study. Wilcoxon's statistic has high power to detect small effects in large randomized experiments-that is, it often has good Pitman efficiency-but small effects are invariably sensitive to small unobserved biases. Members of this family of u-statistics that emphasize medium to large effects can have substantially higher power in a sensitivity analysis. For example, in one situation with 250 pair differences that are Normal with expectation 1/2 and variance 1, the power of a sensitivity analysis that uses Wilcoxon's statistic is 0.08 while the power of another member of the family of u-statistics is 0.66. The topic is examined by performing a sensitivity analysis in three observational studies, using an asymptotic measure called the design sensitivity, and by simulating power in finite samples. The three examples are drawn from epidemiology, clinical medicine, and genetic toxicology. © 2010, The International Biometric Society.

  5. Joint probability of statistical success of multiple phase III trials.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Jianliang; Zhang, Jenny J

    2013-01-01

    In drug development, after completion of phase II proof-of-concept trials, the sponsor needs to make a go/no-go decision to start expensive phase III trials. The probability of statistical success (PoSS) of the phase III trials based on data from earlier studies is an important factor in that decision-making process. Instead of statistical power, the predictive power of a phase III trial, which takes into account the uncertainty in the estimation of treatment effect from earlier studies, has been proposed to evaluate the PoSS of a single trial. However, regulatory authorities generally require statistical significance in two (or more) trials for marketing licensure. We show that the predictive statistics of two future trials are statistically correlated through use of the common observed data from earlier studies. Thus, the joint predictive power should not be evaluated as a simplistic product of the predictive powers of the individual trials. We develop the relevant formulae for the appropriate evaluation of the joint predictive power and provide numerical examples. Our methodology is further extended to the more complex phase III development scenario comprising more than two (K > 2) trials, that is, the evaluation of the PoSS of at least k₀ (k₀≤ K) trials from a program of K total trials. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  6. Robust inference from multiple test statistics via permutations: a better alternative to the single test statistic approach for randomized trials.

    PubMed

    Ganju, Jitendra; Yu, Xinxin; Ma, Guoguang Julie

    2013-01-01

    Formal inference in randomized clinical trials is based on controlling the type I error rate associated with a single pre-specified statistic. The deficiency of using just one method of analysis is that it depends on assumptions that may not be met. For robust inference, we propose pre-specifying multiple test statistics and relying on the minimum p-value for testing the null hypothesis of no treatment effect. The null hypothesis associated with the various test statistics is that the treatment groups are indistinguishable. The critical value for hypothesis testing comes from permutation distributions. Rejection of the null hypothesis when the smallest p-value is less than the critical value controls the type I error rate at its designated value. Even if one of the candidate test statistics has low power, the adverse effect on the power of the minimum p-value statistic is not much. Its use is illustrated with examples. We conclude that it is better to rely on the minimum p-value rather than a single statistic particularly when that single statistic is the logrank test, because of the cost and complexity of many survival trials. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  7. Advanced statistical energy analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heron, K. H.

    1994-09-01

    A high-frequency theory (advanced statistical energy analysis (ASEA)) is developed which takes account of the mechanism of tunnelling and uses a ray theory approach to track the power flowing around a plate or a beam network and then uses statistical energy analysis (SEA) to take care of any residual power. ASEA divides the energy of each sub-system into energy that is freely available for transfer to other sub-systems and energy that is fixed within the sub-systems that are physically separate and can be interpreted as a series of mathematical models, the first of which is identical to standard SEA and subsequent higher order models are convergent on an accurate prediction. Using a structural assembly of six rods as an example, ASEA is shown to converge onto the exact results while SEA is shown to overpredict by up to 60 dB.

  8. Maximizing Statistical Power When Verifying Probabilistic Forecasts of Hydrometeorological Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    DeChant, C. M.; Moradkhani, H.

    2014-12-01

    Hydrometeorological events (i.e. floods, droughts, precipitation) are increasingly being forecasted probabilistically, owing to the uncertainties in the underlying causes of the phenomenon. In these forecasts, the probability of the event, over some lead time, is estimated based on some model simulations or predictive indicators. By issuing probabilistic forecasts, agencies may communicate the uncertainty in the event occurring. Assuming that the assigned probability of the event is correct, which is referred to as a reliable forecast, the end user may perform some risk management based on the potential damages resulting from the event. Alternatively, an unreliable forecast may give false impressions of the actual risk, leading to improper decision making when protecting resources from extreme events. Due to this requisite for reliable forecasts to perform effective risk management, this study takes a renewed look at reliability assessment in event forecasts. Illustrative experiments will be presented, showing deficiencies in the commonly available approaches (Brier Score, Reliability Diagram). Overall, it is shown that the conventional reliability assessment techniques do not maximize the ability to distinguish between a reliable and unreliable forecast. In this regard, a theoretical formulation of the probabilistic event forecast verification framework will be presented. From this analysis, hypothesis testing with the Poisson-Binomial distribution is the most exact model available for the verification framework, and therefore maximizes one's ability to distinguish between a reliable and unreliable forecast. Application of this verification system was also examined within a real forecasting case study, highlighting the additional statistical power provided with the use of the Poisson-Binomial distribution.

  9. Correlation techniques and measurements of wave-height statistics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Guthart, H.; Taylor, W. C.; Graf, K. A.; Douglas, D. G.

    1972-01-01

    Statistical measurements of wave height fluctuations have been made in a wind wave tank. The power spectral density function of temporal wave height fluctuations evidenced second-harmonic components and an f to the minus 5th power law decay beyond the second harmonic. The observations of second harmonic effects agreed very well with a theoretical prediction. From the wave statistics, surface drift currents were inferred and compared to experimental measurements with satisfactory agreement. Measurements were made of the two dimensional correlation coefficient at 15 deg increments in angle with respect to the wind vector. An estimate of the two-dimensional spatial power spectral density function was also made.

  10. Decadal power in land air temperatures: Is it statistically significant?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thejll, Peter A.

    2001-12-01

    The geographical distribution and properties of the well-known 10-11 year signal in terrestrial temperature records is investigated. By analyzing the Global Historical Climate Network data for surface air temperatures we verify that the signal is strongest in North America and is similar in nature to that reported earlier by R. G. Currie. The decadal signal is statistically significant for individual stations, but it is not possible to show that the signal is statistically significant globally, using strict tests. In North America, during the twentieth century, the decadal variability in the solar activity cycle is associated with the decadal part of the North Atlantic Oscillation index series in such a way that both of these signals correspond to the same spatial pattern of cooling and warming. A method for testing statistical results with Monte Carlo trials on data fields with specified temporal structure and specific spatial correlation retained is presented.

  11. Statistics used in current nursing research.

    PubMed

    Zellner, Kathleen; Boerst, Connie J; Tabb, Wil

    2007-02-01

    Undergraduate nursing research courses should emphasize the statistics most commonly used in the nursing literature to strengthen students' and beginning researchers' understanding of them. To determine the most commonly used statistics, we reviewed all quantitative research articles published in 13 nursing journals in 2000. The findings supported Beitz's categorization of kinds of statistics. Ten primary statistics used in 80% of nursing research published in 2000 were identified. We recommend that the appropriate use of those top 10 statistics be emphasized in undergraduate nursing education and that the nursing profession continue to advocate for the use of methods (e.g., power analysis, odds ratio) that may contribute to the advancement of nursing research.

  12. [Application of statistics on chronic-diseases-relating observational research papers].

    PubMed

    Hong, Zhi-heng; Wang, Ping; Cao, Wei-hua

    2012-09-01

    To study the application of statistics on Chronic-diseases-relating observational research papers which were recently published in the Chinese Medical Association Magazines, with influential index above 0.5. Using a self-developed criterion, two investigators individually participated in assessing the application of statistics on Chinese Medical Association Magazines, with influential index above 0.5. Different opinions reached an agreement through discussion. A total number of 352 papers from 6 magazines, including the Chinese Journal of Epidemiology, Chinese Journal of Oncology, Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine, Chinese Journal of Cardiology, Chinese Journal of Internal Medicine and Chinese Journal of Endocrinology and Metabolism, were reviewed. The rate of clear statement on the following contents as: research objectives, t target audience, sample issues, objective inclusion criteria and variable definitions were 99.43%, 98.57%, 95.43%, 92.86% and 96.87%. The correct rates of description on quantitative and qualitative data were 90.94% and 91.46%, respectively. The rates on correctly expressing the results, on statistical inference methods related to quantitative, qualitative data and modeling were 100%, 95.32% and 87.19%, respectively. 89.49% of the conclusions could directly response to the research objectives. However, 69.60% of the papers did not mention the exact names of the study design, statistically, that the papers were using. 11.14% of the papers were in lack of further statement on the exclusion criteria. Percentage of the papers that could clearly explain the sample size estimation only taking up as 5.16%. Only 24.21% of the papers clearly described the variable value assignment. Regarding the introduction on statistical conduction and on database methods, the rate was only 24.15%. 18.75% of the papers did not express the statistical inference methods sufficiently. A quarter of the papers did not use 'standardization' appropriately. As for the

  13. Louder than words: power and conflict in interprofessional education articles, 1954-2013.

    PubMed

    Paradis, Elise; Whitehead, Cynthia R

    2015-04-01

    Interprofessional education (IPE) aspires to enable collaborative practice. Current IPE offerings, although rapidly proliferating, lack evidence of efficacy and theoretical grounding. Our research aimed to explore the historical emergence of the field of IPE and to analyse the positioning of this academic field of inquiry. In particular, we sought to investigate the extent to which power and conflict - elements central to interprofessional care - figure in the IPE literature. We used a combination of deductive and inductive automated coding and manual coding to explore the contents of 2191 articles in the IPE literature published between 1954 and 2013. Inductive coding focused on the presence and use of the sociological (rather than statistical) version of power, which refers to hierarchies and asymmetries among the professions. Articles found to be centrally about power were then analysed using content analysis. Publications on IPE have grown exponentially in the past decade. Deductive coding of identified articles showed an emphasis on students, learning, programmes and practice. Automated inductive coding of titles and abstracts identified 129 articles potentially about power, but manual coding found that only six articles put power and conflict at the centre. Content analysis of these six articles revealed that two provided tentative explorations of power dynamics, one skirted around this issue, and three explicitly theorised and integrated power and conflict. The lack of attention to power and conflict in the IPE literature suggests that many educators do not foreground these issues. Education programmes are expected to transform individuals into effective collaborators, without heed to structural, organisational and institutional factors. In so doing, current constructions of IPE veil the problems that IPE attempts to solve. © 2015 The Authors Medical Education Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. Statistical Design for Biospecimen Cohort Size in Proteomics-based Biomarker Discovery and Verification Studies

    PubMed Central

    Skates, Steven J.; Gillette, Michael A.; LaBaer, Joshua; Carr, Steven A.; Anderson, N. Leigh; Liebler, Daniel C.; Ransohoff, David; Rifai, Nader; Kondratovich, Marina; Težak, Živana; Mansfield, Elizabeth; Oberg, Ann L.; Wright, Ian; Barnes, Grady; Gail, Mitchell; Mesri, Mehdi; Kinsinger, Christopher R.; Rodriguez, Henry; Boja, Emily S.

    2014-01-01

    Protein biomarkers are needed to deepen our understanding of cancer biology and to improve our ability to diagnose, monitor and treat cancers. Important analytical and clinical hurdles must be overcome to allow the most promising protein biomarker candidates to advance into clinical validation studies. Although contemporary proteomics technologies support the measurement of large numbers of proteins in individual clinical specimens, sample throughput remains comparatively low. This problem is amplified in typical clinical proteomics research studies, which routinely suffer from a lack of proper experimental design, resulting in analysis of too few biospecimens to achieve adequate statistical power at each stage of a biomarker pipeline. To address this critical shortcoming, a joint workshop was held by the National Cancer Institute (NCI), National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute (NHLBI), and American Association for Clinical Chemistry (AACC), with participation from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). An important output from the workshop was a statistical framework for the design of biomarker discovery and verification studies. Herein, we describe the use of quantitative clinical judgments to set statistical criteria for clinical relevance, and the development of an approach to calculate biospecimen sample size for proteomic studies in discovery and verification stages prior to clinical validation stage. This represents a first step towards building a consensus on quantitative criteria for statistical design of proteomics biomarker discovery and verification research. PMID:24063748

  15. Statistical design for biospecimen cohort size in proteomics-based biomarker discovery and verification studies.

    PubMed

    Skates, Steven J; Gillette, Michael A; LaBaer, Joshua; Carr, Steven A; Anderson, Leigh; Liebler, Daniel C; Ransohoff, David; Rifai, Nader; Kondratovich, Marina; Težak, Živana; Mansfield, Elizabeth; Oberg, Ann L; Wright, Ian; Barnes, Grady; Gail, Mitchell; Mesri, Mehdi; Kinsinger, Christopher R; Rodriguez, Henry; Boja, Emily S

    2013-12-06

    Protein biomarkers are needed to deepen our understanding of cancer biology and to improve our ability to diagnose, monitor, and treat cancers. Important analytical and clinical hurdles must be overcome to allow the most promising protein biomarker candidates to advance into clinical validation studies. Although contemporary proteomics technologies support the measurement of large numbers of proteins in individual clinical specimens, sample throughput remains comparatively low. This problem is amplified in typical clinical proteomics research studies, which routinely suffer from a lack of proper experimental design, resulting in analysis of too few biospecimens to achieve adequate statistical power at each stage of a biomarker pipeline. To address this critical shortcoming, a joint workshop was held by the National Cancer Institute (NCI), National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI), and American Association for Clinical Chemistry (AACC) with participation from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). An important output from the workshop was a statistical framework for the design of biomarker discovery and verification studies. Herein, we describe the use of quantitative clinical judgments to set statistical criteria for clinical relevance and the development of an approach to calculate biospecimen sample size for proteomic studies in discovery and verification stages prior to clinical validation stage. This represents a first step toward building a consensus on quantitative criteria for statistical design of proteomics biomarker discovery and verification research.

  16. The statistics of primordial density fluctuations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barrow, John D.; Coles, Peter

    1990-05-01

    The statistical properties of the density fluctuations produced by power-law inflation are investigated. It is found that, even the fluctuations present in the scalar field driving the inflation are Gaussian, the resulting density perturbations need not be, due to stochastic variations in the Hubble parameter. All the moments of the density fluctuations are calculated, and is is argued that, for realistic parameter choices, the departures from Gaussian statistics are small and would have a negligible effect on the large-scale structure produced in the model. On the other hand, the model predicts a power spectrum with n not equal to 1, and this could be good news for large-scale structure.

  17. Wheat crown rot pathogens Fusarium graminearum and F. pseudograminearum lack specialization.

    PubMed

    Chakraborty, Sukumar; Obanor, Friday; Westecott, Rhyannyn; Abeywickrama, Krishanthi

    2010-10-01

    This article reports a lack of pathogenic specialization among Australian Fusarium graminearum and F. pseudograminearum causing crown rot (CR) of wheat using analysis of variance (ANOVA), principal component and biplot analysis, Kendall's coefficient of concordance (W), and κ statistics. Overall, F. pseudograminearum was more aggressive than F. graminearum, supporting earlier delineation of the crown-infecting group as a new species. Although significant wheat line-pathogen isolate interaction in ANOVA suggested putative specialization when seedlings of 60 wheat lines were inoculated with 4 pathogen isolates or 26 wheat lines were inoculated with 10 isolates, significant W and κ showed agreement in rank order of wheat lines, indicating a lack of specialization. The first principal component representing nondifferential aggressiveness explained a large part (up to 65%) of the variation in CR severity. The differential components were small and more pronounced in seedlings than in adult plants. By maximizing variance on the first two principal components, biplots were useful for highlighting the association between isolates and wheat lines. A key finding of this work is that a range of analytical tools are needed to explore pathogenic specialization, and a statistically significant interaction in an ANOVA cannot be taken as conclusive evidence of specialization. With no highly resistant wheat cultivars, Fusarium isolates mostly differ in aggressiveness; however, specialization may appear as more resistant cultivars become widespread.

  18. Simulation program for estimating statistical power of Cox's proportional hazards model assuming no specific distribution for the survival time.

    PubMed

    Akazawa, K; Nakamura, T; Moriguchi, S; Shimada, M; Nose, Y

    1991-07-01

    Small sample properties of the maximum partial likelihood estimates for Cox's proportional hazards model depend on the sample size, the true values of regression coefficients, covariate structure, censoring pattern and possibly baseline hazard functions. Therefore, it would be difficult to construct a formula or table to calculate the exact power of a statistical test for the treatment effect in any specific clinical trial. The simulation program, written in SAS/IML, described in this paper uses Monte-Carlo methods to provide estimates of the exact power for Cox's proportional hazards model. For illustrative purposes, the program was applied to real data obtained from a clinical trial performed in Japan. Since the program does not assume any specific function for the baseline hazard, it is, in principle, applicable to any censored survival data as long as they follow Cox's proportional hazards model.

  19. Statistics for Radiology Research.

    PubMed

    Obuchowski, Nancy A; Subhas, Naveen; Polster, Joshua

    2017-02-01

    Biostatistics is an essential component in most original research studies in imaging. In this article we discuss five key statistical concepts for study design and analyses in modern imaging research: statistical hypothesis testing, particularly focusing on noninferiority studies; imaging outcomes especially when there is no reference standard; dealing with the multiplicity problem without spending all your study power; relevance of confidence intervals in reporting and interpreting study results; and finally tools for assessing quantitative imaging biomarkers. These concepts are presented first as examples of conversations between investigator and biostatistician, and then more detailed discussions of the statistical concepts follow. Three skeletal radiology examples are used to illustrate the concepts. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

  20. Relative risk estimates from spatial and space-time scan statistics: Are they biased?

    PubMed Central

    Prates, Marcos O.; Kulldorff, Martin; Assunção, Renato M.

    2014-01-01

    The purely spatial and space-time scan statistics have been successfully used by many scientists to detect and evaluate geographical disease clusters. Although the scan statistic has high power in correctly identifying a cluster, no study has considered the estimates of the cluster relative risk in the detected cluster. In this paper we evaluate whether there is any bias on these estimated relative risks. Intuitively, one may expect that the estimated relative risks has upward bias, since the scan statistic cherry picks high rate areas to include in the cluster. We show that this intuition is correct for clusters with low statistical power, but with medium to high power the bias becomes negligible. The same behaviour is not observed for the prospective space-time scan statistic, where there is an increasing conservative downward bias of the relative risk as the power to detect the cluster increases. PMID:24639031

  1. Seven Pervasive Statistical Flaws in Cognitive Training Interventions

    PubMed Central

    Moreau, David; Kirk, Ian J.; Waldie, Karen E.

    2016-01-01

    The prospect of enhancing cognition is undoubtedly among the most exciting research questions currently bridging psychology, neuroscience, and evidence-based medicine. Yet, convincing claims in this line of work stem from designs that are prone to several shortcomings, thus threatening the credibility of training-induced cognitive enhancement. Here, we present seven pervasive statistical flaws in intervention designs: (i) lack of power; (ii) sampling error; (iii) continuous variable splits; (iv) erroneous interpretations of correlated gain scores; (v) single transfer assessments; (vi) multiple comparisons; and (vii) publication bias. Each flaw is illustrated with a Monte Carlo simulation to present its underlying mechanisms, gauge its magnitude, and discuss potential remedies. Although not restricted to training studies, these flaws are typically exacerbated in such designs, due to ubiquitous practices in data collection or data analysis. The article reviews these practices, so as to avoid common pitfalls when designing or analyzing an intervention. More generally, it is also intended as a reference for anyone interested in evaluating claims of cognitive enhancement. PMID:27148010

  2. BrightStat.com: free statistics online.

    PubMed

    Stricker, Daniel

    2008-10-01

    Powerful software for statistical analysis is expensive. Here I present BrightStat, a statistical software running on the Internet which is free of charge. BrightStat's goals, its main capabilities and functionalities are outlined. Three different sample runs, a Friedman test, a chi-square test, and a step-wise multiple regression are presented. The results obtained by BrightStat are compared with results computed by SPSS, one of the global leader in providing statistical software, and VassarStats, a collection of scripts for data analysis running on the Internet. Elementary statistics is an inherent part of academic education and BrightStat is an alternative to commercial products.

  3. Developing a statistically powerful measure for quartet tree inference using phylogenetic identities and Markov invariants.

    PubMed

    Sumner, Jeremy G; Taylor, Amelia; Holland, Barbara R; Jarvis, Peter D

    2017-12-01

    Recently there has been renewed interest in phylogenetic inference methods based on phylogenetic invariants, alongside the related Markov invariants. Broadly speaking, both these approaches give rise to polynomial functions of sequence site patterns that, in expectation value, either vanish for particular evolutionary trees (in the case of phylogenetic invariants) or have well understood transformation properties (in the case of Markov invariants). While both approaches have been valued for their intrinsic mathematical interest, it is not clear how they relate to each other, and to what extent they can be used as practical tools for inference of phylogenetic trees. In this paper, by focusing on the special case of binary sequence data and quartets of taxa, we are able to view these two different polynomial-based approaches within a common framework. To motivate the discussion, we present three desirable statistical properties that we argue any invariant-based phylogenetic method should satisfy: (1) sensible behaviour under reordering of input sequences; (2) stability as the taxa evolve independently according to a Markov process; and (3) explicit dependence on the assumption of a continuous-time process. Motivated by these statistical properties, we develop and explore several new phylogenetic inference methods. In particular, we develop a statistically bias-corrected version of the Markov invariants approach which satisfies all three properties. We also extend previous work by showing that the phylogenetic invariants can be implemented in such a way as to satisfy property (3). A simulation study shows that, in comparison to other methods, our new proposed approach based on bias-corrected Markov invariants is extremely powerful for phylogenetic inference. The binary case is of particular theoretical interest as-in this case only-the Markov invariants can be expressed as linear combinations of the phylogenetic invariants. A wider implication of this is that, for

  4. Detecting rater bias using a person-fit statistic: a Monte Carlo simulation study.

    PubMed

    Aubin, André-Sébastien; St-Onge, Christina; Renaud, Jean-Sébastien

    2018-04-01

    With the Standards voicing concern for the appropriateness of response processes, we need to explore strategies that would allow us to identify inappropriate rater response processes. Although certain statistics can be used to help detect rater bias, their use is complicated by either a lack of data about their actual power to detect rater bias or the difficulty related to their application in the context of health professions education. This exploratory study aimed to establish the worthiness of pursuing the use of l z to detect rater bias. We conducted a Monte Carlo simulation study to investigate the power of a specific detection statistic, that is: the standardized likelihood l z person-fit statistics (PFS). Our primary outcome was the detection rate of biased raters, namely: raters whom we manipulated into being either stringent (giving lower scores) or lenient (giving higher scores), using the l z statistic while controlling for the number of biased raters in a sample (6 levels) and the rate of bias per rater (6 levels). Overall, stringent raters (M = 0.84, SD = 0.23) were easier to detect than lenient raters (M = 0.31, SD = 0.28). More biased raters were easier to detect then less biased raters (60% bias: 62, SD = 0.37; 10% bias: 43, SD = 0.36). The PFS l z seems to offer an interesting potential to identify biased raters. We observed detection rates as high as 90% for stringent raters, for whom we manipulated more than half their checklist. Although we observed very interesting results, we cannot generalize these results to the use of PFS with estimated item/station parameters or real data. Such studies should be conducted to assess the feasibility of using PFS to identify rater bias.

  5. Power-law ansatz in complex systems: Excessive loss of information.

    PubMed

    Tsai, Sun-Ting; Chang, Chin-De; Chang, Ching-Hao; Tsai, Meng-Xue; Hsu, Nan-Jung; Hong, Tzay-Ming

    2015-12-01

    The ubiquity of power-law relations in empirical data displays physicists' love of simple laws and uncovering common causes among seemingly unrelated phenomena. However, many reported power laws lack statistical support and mechanistic backings, not to mention discrepancies with real data are often explained away as corrections due to finite size or other variables. We propose a simple experiment and rigorous statistical procedures to look into these issues. Making use of the fact that the occurrence rate and pulse intensity of crumple sound obey a power law with an exponent that varies with material, we simulate a complex system with two driving mechanisms by crumpling two different sheets together. The probability function of the crumple sound is found to transit from two power-law terms to a bona fide power law as compaction increases. In addition to showing the vicinity of these two distributions in the phase space, this observation nicely demonstrates the effect of interactions to bring about a subtle change in macroscopic behavior and more information may be retrieved if the data are subject to sorting. Our analyses are based on the Akaike information criterion that is a direct measurement of information loss and emphasizes the need to strike a balance between model simplicity and goodness of fit. As a show of force, the Akaike information criterion also found the Gutenberg-Richter law for earthquakes and the scale-free model for a brain functional network, a two-dimensional sandpile, and solar flare intensity to suffer an excessive loss of information. They resemble more the crumpled-together ball at low compactions in that there appear to be two driving mechanisms that take turns occurring.

  6. [An investigation of the statistical power of the effect size in randomized controlled trials for the treatment of patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus using Chinese medicine].

    PubMed

    Ma, Li-Xin; Liu, Jian-Ping

    2012-01-01

    To investigate whether the power of the effect size was based on adequate sample size in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) for the treatment of patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) using Chinese medicine. China Knowledge Resource Integrated Database (CNKI), VIP Database for Chinese Technical Periodicals (VIP), Chinese Biomedical Database (CBM), and Wangfang Data were systematically recruited using terms like "Xiaoke" or diabetes, Chinese herbal medicine, patent medicine, traditional Chinese medicine, randomized, controlled, blinded, and placebo-controlled. Limitation was set on the intervention course > or = 3 months in order to identify the information of outcome assessement and the sample size. Data collection forms were made according to the checking lists found in the CONSORT statement. Independent double data extractions were performed on all included trials. The statistical power of the effects size for each RCT study was assessed using sample size calculation equations. (1) A total of 207 RCTs were included, including 111 superiority trials and 96 non-inferiority trials. (2) Among the 111 superiority trials, fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and glycosylated hemoglobin HbA1c (HbA1c) outcome measure were reported in 9% and 12% of the RCTs respectively with the sample size > 150 in each trial. For the outcome of HbA1c, only 10% of the RCTs had more than 80% power. For FPG, 23% of the RCTs had more than 80% power. (3) In the 96 non-inferiority trials, the outcomes FPG and HbA1c were reported as 31% and 36% respectively. These RCTs had a samples size > 150. For HbA1c only 36% of the RCTs had more than 80% power. For FPG, only 27% of the studies had more than 80% power. The sample size for statistical analysis was distressingly low and most RCTs did not achieve 80% power. In order to obtain a sufficient statistic power, it is recommended that clinical trials should establish clear research objective and hypothesis first, and choose scientific and evidence

  7. Statistical Properties of Real-Time Amplitude Estimate of Harmonics Affected by Frequency Instability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bellan, Diego; Pignari, Sergio A.

    2016-07-01

    This work deals with the statistical characterization of real-time digital measurement of the amplitude of harmonics affected by frequency instability. In fact, in modern power systems both the presence of harmonics and frequency instability are well-known and widespread phenomena mainly due to nonlinear loads and distributed generation, respectively. As a result, real-time monitoring of voltage/current frequency spectra is of paramount importance as far as power quality issues are addressed. Within this framework, a key point is that in many cases real-time continuous monitoring prevents the application of sophisticated algorithms to extract all the information from the digitized waveforms because of the required computational burden. In those cases only simple evaluations such as peak search of discrete Fourier transform are implemented. It is well known, however, that a slight change in waveform frequency results in lack of sampling synchronism and uncertainty in amplitude estimate. Of course the impact of this phenomenon increases with the order of the harmonic to be measured. In this paper an approximate analytical approach is proposed in order to describe the statistical properties of the measured magnitude of harmonics affected by frequency instability. By providing a simplified description of the frequency behavior of the windows used against spectral leakage, analytical expressions for mean value, variance, cumulative distribution function, and probability density function of the measured harmonics magnitude are derived in closed form as functions of waveform frequency treated as a random variable.

  8. Combining Multiple Hypothesis Testing with Machine Learning Increases the Statistical Power of Genome-wide Association Studies

    PubMed Central

    Mieth, Bettina; Kloft, Marius; Rodríguez, Juan Antonio; Sonnenburg, Sören; Vobruba, Robin; Morcillo-Suárez, Carlos; Farré, Xavier; Marigorta, Urko M.; Fehr, Ernst; Dickhaus, Thorsten; Blanchard, Gilles; Schunk, Daniel; Navarro, Arcadi; Müller, Klaus-Robert

    2016-01-01

    The standard approach to the analysis of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) is based on testing each position in the genome individually for statistical significance of its association with the phenotype under investigation. To improve the analysis of GWAS, we propose a combination of machine learning and statistical testing that takes correlation structures within the set of SNPs under investigation in a mathematically well-controlled manner into account. The novel two-step algorithm, COMBI, first trains a support vector machine to determine a subset of candidate SNPs and then performs hypothesis tests for these SNPs together with an adequate threshold correction. Applying COMBI to data from a WTCCC study (2007) and measuring performance as replication by independent GWAS published within the 2008–2015 period, we show that our method outperforms ordinary raw p-value thresholding as well as other state-of-the-art methods. COMBI presents higher power and precision than the examined alternatives while yielding fewer false (i.e. non-replicated) and more true (i.e. replicated) discoveries when its results are validated on later GWAS studies. More than 80% of the discoveries made by COMBI upon WTCCC data have been validated by independent studies. Implementations of the COMBI method are available as a part of the GWASpi toolbox 2.0. PMID:27892471

  9. Combining Multiple Hypothesis Testing with Machine Learning Increases the Statistical Power of Genome-wide Association Studies.

    PubMed

    Mieth, Bettina; Kloft, Marius; Rodríguez, Juan Antonio; Sonnenburg, Sören; Vobruba, Robin; Morcillo-Suárez, Carlos; Farré, Xavier; Marigorta, Urko M; Fehr, Ernst; Dickhaus, Thorsten; Blanchard, Gilles; Schunk, Daniel; Navarro, Arcadi; Müller, Klaus-Robert

    2016-11-28

    The standard approach to the analysis of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) is based on testing each position in the genome individually for statistical significance of its association with the phenotype under investigation. To improve the analysis of GWAS, we propose a combination of machine learning and statistical testing that takes correlation structures within the set of SNPs under investigation in a mathematically well-controlled manner into account. The novel two-step algorithm, COMBI, first trains a support vector machine to determine a subset of candidate SNPs and then performs hypothesis tests for these SNPs together with an adequate threshold correction. Applying COMBI to data from a WTCCC study (2007) and measuring performance as replication by independent GWAS published within the 2008-2015 period, we show that our method outperforms ordinary raw p-value thresholding as well as other state-of-the-art methods. COMBI presents higher power and precision than the examined alternatives while yielding fewer false (i.e. non-replicated) and more true (i.e. replicated) discoveries when its results are validated on later GWAS studies. More than 80% of the discoveries made by COMBI upon WTCCC data have been validated by independent studies. Implementations of the COMBI method are available as a part of the GWASpi toolbox 2.0.

  10. Combining Multiple Hypothesis Testing with Machine Learning Increases the Statistical Power of Genome-wide Association Studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mieth, Bettina; Kloft, Marius; Rodríguez, Juan Antonio; Sonnenburg, Sören; Vobruba, Robin; Morcillo-Suárez, Carlos; Farré, Xavier; Marigorta, Urko M.; Fehr, Ernst; Dickhaus, Thorsten; Blanchard, Gilles; Schunk, Daniel; Navarro, Arcadi; Müller, Klaus-Robert

    2016-11-01

    The standard approach to the analysis of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) is based on testing each position in the genome individually for statistical significance of its association with the phenotype under investigation. To improve the analysis of GWAS, we propose a combination of machine learning and statistical testing that takes correlation structures within the set of SNPs under investigation in a mathematically well-controlled manner into account. The novel two-step algorithm, COMBI, first trains a support vector machine to determine a subset of candidate SNPs and then performs hypothesis tests for these SNPs together with an adequate threshold correction. Applying COMBI to data from a WTCCC study (2007) and measuring performance as replication by independent GWAS published within the 2008-2015 period, we show that our method outperforms ordinary raw p-value thresholding as well as other state-of-the-art methods. COMBI presents higher power and precision than the examined alternatives while yielding fewer false (i.e. non-replicated) and more true (i.e. replicated) discoveries when its results are validated on later GWAS studies. More than 80% of the discoveries made by COMBI upon WTCCC data have been validated by independent studies. Implementations of the COMBI method are available as a part of the GWASpi toolbox 2.0.

  11. Generalizing Terwilliger's likelihood approach: a new score statistic to test for genetic association.

    PubMed

    el Galta, Rachid; Uitte de Willige, Shirley; de Visser, Marieke C H; Helmer, Quinta; Hsu, Li; Houwing-Duistermaat, Jeanine J

    2007-09-24

    In this paper, we propose a one degree of freedom test for association between a candidate gene and a binary trait. This method is a generalization of Terwilliger's likelihood ratio statistic and is especially powerful for the situation of one associated haplotype. As an alternative to the likelihood ratio statistic, we derive a score statistic, which has a tractable expression. For haplotype analysis, we assume that phase is known. By means of a simulation study, we compare the performance of the score statistic to Pearson's chi-square statistic and the likelihood ratio statistic proposed by Terwilliger. We illustrate the method on three candidate genes studied in the Leiden Thrombophilia Study. We conclude that the statistic follows a chi square distribution under the null hypothesis and that the score statistic is more powerful than Terwilliger's likelihood ratio statistic when the associated haplotype has frequency between 0.1 and 0.4 and has a small impact on the studied disorder. With regard to Pearson's chi-square statistic, the score statistic has more power when the associated haplotype has frequency above 0.2 and the number of variants is above five.

  12. Quantum fluctuation theorems and power measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prasanna Venkatesh, B.; Watanabe, Gentaro; Talkner, Peter

    2015-07-01

    Work in the paradigm of the quantum fluctuation theorems of Crooks and Jarzynski is determined by projective measurements of energy at the beginning and end of the force protocol. In analogy to classical systems, we consider an alternative definition of work given by the integral of the supplied power determined by integrating up the results of repeated measurements of the instantaneous power during the force protocol. We observe that such a definition of work, in spite of taking account of the process dependence, has different possible values and statistics from the work determined by the conventional two energy measurement approach (TEMA). In the limit of many projective measurements of power, the system’s dynamics is frozen in the power measurement basis due to the quantum Zeno effect leading to statistics only trivially dependent on the force protocol. In general the Jarzynski relation is not satisfied except for the case when the instantaneous power operator commutes with the total Hamiltonian at all times. We also consider properties of the joint statistics of power-based definition of work and TEMA work in protocols where both values are determined. This allows us to quantify their correlations. Relaxing the projective measurement condition, weak continuous measurements of power are considered within the stochastic master equation formalism. Even in this scenario the power-based work statistics is in general not able to reproduce qualitative features of the TEMA work statistics.

  13. A global goodness-of-fit statistic for Cox regression models.

    PubMed

    Parzen, M; Lipsitz, S R

    1999-06-01

    In this paper, a global goodness-of-fit test statistic for a Cox regression model, which has an approximate chi-squared distribution when the model has been correctly specified, is proposed. Our goodness-of-fit statistic is global and has power to detect if interactions or higher order powers of covariates in the model are needed. The proposed statistic is similar to the Hosmer and Lemeshow (1980, Communications in Statistics A10, 1043-1069) goodness-of-fit statistic for binary data as well as Schoenfeld's (1980, Biometrika 67, 145-153) statistic for the Cox model. The methods are illustrated using data from a Mayo Clinic trial in primary billiary cirrhosis of the liver (Fleming and Harrington, 1991, Counting Processes and Survival Analysis), in which the outcome is the time until liver transplantation or death. The are 17 possible covariates. Two Cox proportional hazards models are fit to the data, and the proposed goodness-of-fit statistic is applied to the fitted models.

  14. Statistics 101 for Radiologists.

    PubMed

    Anvari, Arash; Halpern, Elkan F; Samir, Anthony E

    2015-10-01

    Diagnostic tests have wide clinical applications, including screening, diagnosis, measuring treatment effect, and determining prognosis. Interpreting diagnostic test results requires an understanding of key statistical concepts used to evaluate test efficacy. This review explains descriptive statistics and discusses probability, including mutually exclusive and independent events and conditional probability. In the inferential statistics section, a statistical perspective on study design is provided, together with an explanation of how to select appropriate statistical tests. Key concepts in recruiting study samples are discussed, including representativeness and random sampling. Variable types are defined, including predictor, outcome, and covariate variables, and the relationship of these variables to one another. In the hypothesis testing section, we explain how to determine if observed differences between groups are likely to be due to chance. We explain type I and II errors, statistical significance, and study power, followed by an explanation of effect sizes and how confidence intervals can be used to generalize observed effect sizes to the larger population. Statistical tests are explained in four categories: t tests and analysis of variance, proportion analysis tests, nonparametric tests, and regression techniques. We discuss sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, receiver operating characteristic analysis, and likelihood ratios. Measures of reliability and agreement, including κ statistics, intraclass correlation coefficients, and Bland-Altman graphs and analysis, are introduced. © RSNA, 2015.

  15. Beneath the Skin: Statistics, Trust, and Status

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smith, Richard

    2011-01-01

    Overreliance on statistics, and even faith in them--which Richard Smith in this essay calls a branch of "metricophilia"--is a common feature of research in education and in the social sciences more generally. Of course accurate statistics are important, but they often constitute essentially a powerful form of rhetoric. For purposes of analysis and…

  16. Louder than words: power and conflict in interprofessional education articles, 1954–2013

    PubMed Central

    Paradis, Elise; Whitehead, Cynthia R

    2015-01-01

    Context Interprofessional education (IPE) aspires to enable collaborative practice. Current IPE offerings, although rapidly proliferating, lack evidence of efficacy and theoretical grounding. Objectives Our research aimed to explore the historical emergence of the field of IPE and to analyse the positioning of this academic field of inquiry. In particular, we sought to investigate the extent to which power and conflict – elements central to interprofessional care – figure in the IPE literature. Methods We used a combination of deductive and inductive automated coding and manual coding to explore the contents of 2191 articles in the IPE literature published between 1954 and 2013. Inductive coding focused on the presence and use of the sociological (rather than statistical) version of power, which refers to hierarchies and asymmetries among the professions. Articles found to be centrally about power were then analysed using content analysis. Results Publications on IPE have grown exponentially in the past decade. Deductive coding of identified articles showed an emphasis on students, learning, programmes and practice. Automated inductive coding of titles and abstracts identified 129 articles potentially about power, but manual coding found that only six articles put power and conflict at the centre. Content analysis of these six articles revealed that two provided tentative explorations of power dynamics, one skirted around this issue, and three explicitly theorised and integrated power and conflict. Conclusions The lack of attention to power and conflict in the IPE literature suggests that many educators do not foreground these issues. Education programmes are expected to transform individuals into effective collaborators, without heed to structural, organisational and institutional factors. In so doing, current constructions of IPE veil the problems that IPE attempts to solve. PMID:25800300

  17. Enrichment of statistical power for genome-wide association studies

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    The inheritance of most human diseases and agriculturally important traits is controlled by many genes with small effects. Identifying these genes, while simultaneously controlling false positives, is challenging. Among available statistical methods, the mixed linear model (MLM) has been the most fl...

  18. DEVELOPMENT OF COMMUNITY POWER FROM SUSTAINABLE SMALL HYDRO POWER SYSTEMS – ACAPACITY BUILDING PROJECT IN BANGANG, CAMEROON

    EPA Science Inventory

    Electric power is one of the basic needs for the development of any community. With electric power lacking in most rural communities in Africa, providing basic amenities that are dependent on power such as clean portable drinking water, powering equipment in health and dent...

  19. New heterogeneous test statistics for the unbalanced fixed-effect nested design.

    PubMed

    Guo, Jiin-Huarng; Billard, L; Luh, Wei-Ming

    2011-05-01

    When the underlying variances are unknown or/and unequal, using the conventional F test is problematic in the two-factor hierarchical data structure. Prompted by the approximate test statistics (Welch and Alexander-Govern methods), the authors develop four new heterogeneous test statistics to test factor A and factor B nested within A for the unbalanced fixed-effect two-stage nested design under variance heterogeneity. The actual significance levels and statistical power of the test statistics were compared in a simulation study. The results show that the proposed procedures maintain better Type I error rate control and have greater statistical power than those obtained by the conventional F test in various conditions. Therefore, the proposed test statistics are recommended in terms of robustness and easy implementation. ©2010 The British Psychological Society.

  20. A powerful and flexible statistical framework for testing hypotheses of allele-specific gene expression from RNA-seq data

    PubMed Central

    Skelly, Daniel A.; Johansson, Marnie; Madeoy, Jennifer; Wakefield, Jon; Akey, Joshua M.

    2011-01-01

    Variation in gene expression is thought to make a significant contribution to phenotypic diversity among individuals within populations. Although high-throughput cDNA sequencing offers a unique opportunity to delineate the genome-wide architecture of regulatory variation, new statistical methods need to be developed to capitalize on the wealth of information contained in RNA-seq data sets. To this end, we developed a powerful and flexible hierarchical Bayesian model that combines information across loci to allow both global and locus-specific inferences about allele-specific expression (ASE). We applied our methodology to a large RNA-seq data set obtained in a diploid hybrid of two diverse Saccharomyces cerevisiae strains, as well as to RNA-seq data from an individual human genome. Our statistical framework accurately quantifies levels of ASE with specified false-discovery rates, achieving high reproducibility between independent sequencing platforms. We pinpoint loci that show unusual and biologically interesting patterns of ASE, including allele-specific alternative splicing and transcription termination sites. Our methodology provides a rigorous, quantitative, and high-resolution tool for profiling ASE across whole genomes. PMID:21873452

  1. Wind Power Curve Modeling Using Statistical Models: An Investigation of Atmospheric Input Variables at a Flat and Complex Terrain Wind Farm

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Wharton, S.; Bulaevskaya, V.; Irons, Z.

    The goal of our FY15 project was to explore the use of statistical models and high-resolution atmospheric input data to develop more accurate prediction models for turbine power generation. We modeled power for two operational wind farms in two regions of the country. The first site is a 235 MW wind farm in Northern Oklahoma with 140 GE 1.68 turbines. Our second site is a 38 MW wind farm in the Altamont Pass Region of Northern California with 38 Mitsubishi 1 MW turbines. The farms are very different in topography, climatology, and turbine technology; however, both occupy high wind resourcemore » areas in the U.S. and are representative of typical wind farms found in their respective areas.« less

  2. Performance Data Gathering and Representation from Fixed-Size Statistical Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yan, Jerry C.; Jin, Haoqiang H.; Schmidt, Melisa A.; Kutler, Paul (Technical Monitor)

    1997-01-01

    The two commonly-used performance data types in the super-computing community, statistics and event traces, are discussed and compared. Statistical data are much more compact but lack the probative power event traces offer. Event traces, on the other hand, are unbounded and can easily fill up the entire file system during program execution. In this paper, we propose an innovative methodology for performance data gathering and representation that offers a middle ground. Two basic ideas are employed: the use of averages to replace recording data for each instance and 'formulae' to represent sequences associated with communication and control flow. The user can trade off tracing overhead, trace data size with data quality incrementally. In other words, the user will be able to limit the amount of trace data collected and, at the same time, carry out some of the analysis event traces offer using space-time views. With the help of a few simple examples, we illustrate the use of these techniques in performance tuning and compare the quality of the traces we collected with event traces. We found that the trace files thus obtained are, indeed, small, bounded and predictable before program execution, and that the quality of the space-time views generated from these statistical data are excellent. Furthermore, experimental results showed that the formulae proposed were able to capture all the sequences associated with 11 of the 15 applications tested. The performance of the formulae can be incrementally improved by allocating more memory at runtime to learn longer sequences.

  3. Is the statistic value all we should care about in neuroimaging?

    PubMed

    Chen, Gang; Taylor, Paul A; Cox, Robert W

    2017-02-15

    Here we address an important issue that has been embedded within the neuroimaging community for a long time: the absence of effect estimates in results reporting in the literature. The statistic value itself, as a dimensionless measure, does not provide information on the biophysical interpretation of a study, and it certainly does not represent the whole picture of a study. Unfortunately, in contrast to standard practice in most scientific fields, effect (or amplitude) estimates are usually not provided in most results reporting in the current neuroimaging publications and presentations. Possible reasons underlying this general trend include (1) lack of general awareness, (2) software limitations, (3) inaccurate estimation of the BOLD response, and (4) poor modeling due to our relatively limited understanding of FMRI signal components. However, as we discuss here, such reporting damages the reliability and interpretability of the scientific findings themselves, and there is in fact no overwhelming reason for such a practice to persist. In order to promote meaningful interpretation, cross validation, reproducibility, meta and power analyses in neuroimaging, we strongly suggest that, as part of good scientific practice, effect estimates should be reported together with their corresponding statistic values. We provide several easily adaptable recommendations for facilitating this process. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  4. Concept analysis: lack of anonymity.

    PubMed

    Swan, Marilyn A; Hobbs, Barbara B

    2017-05-01

    To re-examine and expand understanding of the concept 'lack of anonymity' as a component of rural nursing theory. Early healthcare literature reports lack of anonymity as part of social and working environments, particularly rural nursing. Rural nursing theory included the first published concept analysis on lack of anonymity but lacked empirical referents. Workforce, societal and rural healthcare changes support an updated analysis. To further understand lack of anonymity, its present day use and applicability to diverse environments, research from multiple disciplines was reviewed. Concept analysis. A literature search using eight terms in eleven databases was conducted of literature published between 2008-2013. Walker and Avant's concept analysis methodology guided the analysis. The previous concept analysis is supported in part by current literature. The defining attributes, 'identifiable', 'establishing boundaries for public and private self and interconnectedness' in a community were updated. Updated antecedents include: (i) environmental context; (ii) opportunities to become visible; (iii) developing relationships and (iv) unconscious or limited awareness of public or personal privacy. Consequences are: (i) familiarity; (ii) visibility; (iii) awareness of privacy and (iv) manage or balance of lack of anonymity. Cases were constructed and empirical referents identified. The concept of lack of anonymity was updated; portions of the original definition remain unchanged. Empirical referents reveal the defining attributes in daily life and may guide future research on the effect of lack of anonymity on nursing practice. This analysis advances the conceptual understanding of rural nursing theory. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Narrative Review of Statistical Reporting Checklists, Mandatory Statistical Editing, and Rectifying Common Problems in the Reporting of Scientific Articles.

    PubMed

    Dexter, Franklin; Shafer, Steven L

    2017-03-01

    Considerable attention has been drawn to poor reproducibility in the biomedical literature. One explanation is inadequate reporting of statistical methods by authors and inadequate assessment of statistical reporting and methods during peer review. In this narrative review, we examine scientific studies of several well-publicized efforts to improve statistical reporting. We also review several retrospective assessments of the impact of these efforts. These studies show that instructions to authors and statistical checklists are not sufficient; no findings suggested that either improves the quality of statistical methods and reporting. Second, even basic statistics, such as power analyses, are frequently missing or incorrectly performed. Third, statistical review is needed for all papers that involve data analysis. A consistent finding in the studies was that nonstatistical reviewers (eg, "scientific reviewers") and journal editors generally poorly assess statistical quality. We finish by discussing our experience with statistical review at Anesthesia & Analgesia from 2006 to 2016.

  6. Power and revenge.

    PubMed

    Strelan, Peter; Weick, Mario; Vasiljevic, Milica

    2014-09-01

    We took an individual differences approach to explain revenge tendencies in powerholders. Across four experimental studies, chronically powerless individuals sought more revenge than chronically powerful individuals following a high power episode (Studies 1 and 2), when striking a powerful pose (Study 3), and when making a powerful hand gesture (Study 4). This relationship vanished when participants were not exposed to incidental power. A meta-analysis revealed that, relative to a lack of power or a neutral context, exposure to incidental power increased vengeance among the chronically powerless and reduced vengeance among the chronically powerful. These findings add to previous research on relations between power and aggression, and underscore the role of individual differences as a determinant of powerholders' destructive responses. © 2013 The British Psychological Society.

  7. Teaching Introductory Statistics Online--Satisfying the Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tudor, Gail E.

    2006-01-01

    This paper describes the components of a successful, online, introductory statistics course and shares students' comments and evaluations of each component. Past studies have shown that quality interaction with the professor is lacking in many online courses. While students want a course that is well organized and easy to follow, they also want to…

  8. Properties of different selection signature statistics and a new strategy for combining them.

    PubMed

    Ma, Y; Ding, X; Qanbari, S; Weigend, S; Zhang, Q; Simianer, H

    2015-11-01

    Identifying signatures of recent or ongoing selection is of high relevance in livestock population genomics. From a statistical perspective, determining a proper testing procedure and combining various test statistics is challenging. On the basis of extensive simulations in this study, we discuss the statistical properties of eight different established selection signature statistics. In the considered scenario, we show that a reasonable power to detect selection signatures is achieved with high marker density (>1 SNP/kb) as obtained from sequencing, while rather small sample sizes (~15 diploid individuals) appear to be sufficient. Most selection signature statistics such as composite likelihood ratio and cross population extended haplotype homozogysity have the highest power when fixation of the selected allele is reached, while integrated haplotype score has the highest power when selection is ongoing. We suggest a novel strategy, called de-correlated composite of multiple signals (DCMS) to combine different statistics for detecting selection signatures while accounting for the correlation between the different selection signature statistics. When examined with simulated data, DCMS consistently has a higher power than most of the single statistics and shows a reliable positional resolution. We illustrate the new statistic to the established selective sweep around the lactase gene in human HapMap data providing further evidence of the reliability of this new statistic. Then, we apply it to scan selection signatures in two chicken samples with diverse skin color. Our analysis suggests that a set of well-known genes such as BCO2, MC1R, ASIP and TYR were involved in the divergent selection for this trait.

  9. Evaluation of a regional monitoring program's statistical power to detect temporal trends in forest health indicators

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Perles, Stephanie J.; Wagner, Tyler; Irwin, Brian J.; Manning, Douglas R.; Callahan, Kristina K.; Marshall, Matthew R.

    2014-01-01

    Forests are socioeconomically and ecologically important ecosystems that are exposed to a variety of natural and anthropogenic stressors. As such, monitoring forest condition and detecting temporal changes therein remain critical to sound public and private forestland management. The National Parks Service’s Vital Signs monitoring program collects information on many forest health indicators, including species richness, cover by exotics, browse pressure, and forest regeneration. We applied a mixed-model approach to partition variability in data for 30 forest health indicators collected from several national parks in the eastern United States. We then used the estimated variance components in a simulation model to evaluate trend detection capabilities for each indicator. We investigated the extent to which the following factors affected ability to detect trends: (a) sample design: using simple panel versus connected panel design, (b) effect size: increasing trend magnitude, (c) sample size: varying the number of plots sampled each year, and (d) stratified sampling: post-stratifying plots into vegetation domains. Statistical power varied among indicators; however, indicators that measured the proportion of a total yielded higher power when compared to indicators that measured absolute or average values. In addition, the total variability for an indicator appeared to influence power to detect temporal trends more than how total variance was partitioned among spatial and temporal sources. Based on these analyses and the monitoring objectives of theVital Signs program, the current sampling design is likely overly intensive for detecting a 5 % trend·year−1 for all indicators and is appropriate for detecting a 1 % trend·year−1 in most indicators.

  10. The Use of Meta-Analytic Statistical Significance Testing

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Polanin, Joshua R.; Pigott, Terri D.

    2015-01-01

    Meta-analysis multiplicity, the concept of conducting multiple tests of statistical significance within one review, is an underdeveloped literature. We address this issue by considering how Type I errors can impact meta-analytic results, suggest how statistical power may be affected through the use of multiplicity corrections, and propose how…

  11. Improved Statistics for Genome-Wide Interaction Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Ueki, Masao; Cordell, Heather J.

    2012-01-01

    Recently, Wu and colleagues [1] proposed two novel statistics for genome-wide interaction analysis using case/control or case-only data. In computer simulations, their proposed case/control statistic outperformed competing approaches, including the fast-epistasis option in PLINK and logistic regression analysis under the correct model; however, reasons for its superior performance were not fully explored. Here we investigate the theoretical properties and performance of Wu et al.'s proposed statistics and explain why, in some circumstances, they outperform competing approaches. Unfortunately, we find minor errors in the formulae for their statistics, resulting in tests that have higher than nominal type 1 error. We also find minor errors in PLINK's fast-epistasis and case-only statistics, although theory and simulations suggest that these errors have only negligible effect on type 1 error. We propose adjusted versions of all four statistics that, both theoretically and in computer simulations, maintain correct type 1 error rates under the null hypothesis. We also investigate statistics based on correlation coefficients that maintain similar control of type 1 error. Although designed to test specifically for interaction, we show that some of these previously-proposed statistics can, in fact, be sensitive to main effects at one or both loci, particularly in the presence of linkage disequilibrium. We propose two new “joint effects” statistics that, provided the disease is rare, are sensitive only to genuine interaction effects. In computer simulations we find, in most situations considered, that highest power is achieved by analysis under the correct genetic model. Such an analysis is unachievable in practice, as we do not know this model. However, generally high power over a wide range of scenarios is exhibited by our joint effects and adjusted Wu statistics. We recommend use of these alternative or adjusted statistics and urge caution when using Wu et al

  12. Lack of small-scale clustering in 21-cm intensity maps crossed with 2dF galaxy densities at z ~ 0.08

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anderson, Christopher; Luciw, Nicholas; Li, Yi-Chao; Kuo, Cheng-Yu; Yadav, Jaswant; Masui, Kiyoshi; Chang, Tzu-Ching; Chen, Xuelei; Oppermann, Niels; Pen, Ue-Li; Timbie, Peter T.

    2017-06-01

    I report results from 21-cm intensity maps acquired from the Parkes radio telescope and cross-correlated with galaxy maps from the 2dF galaxy survey. The data span the redshift range 0.057power spectrum exhibits a dip in power at small scales, around k~1.0 hMpc^-1, compared to the 2dF auto-power spectrum and the theoretical dark matter power spectrum. This indicates either a lack of clustering of neutral hydrogen (HI) at small scales or a small correlation coefficient between optical galaxies and HI, or some combination of the two. A lack of small scale HI clustering would be qualitatively similar to measurements of HI-selected galaxy clustering from the HIPASS and ALFALFA surveys at slightly lower redshifts.

  13. Immigration Statistics for the 21st Century

    PubMed Central

    Massey, Douglas S.

    2013-01-01

    Of the three main contributors to population growth—fertility, mortality, and net migration—the latter is by far the most difficult to capture statistically. This article discusses the main sources of federal statistical data on immigration, each with its own characteristic set of strengths, weaknesses, possibilities, and limitations in the context of the interested social scientist. Among the key limitations, the article argues, are the elimination of parental birthplace from the Census and the lack of complete data concerning the legal statuses of the U.S. population. This article will conclude with suggestions on remedying such deficiencies, at relatively low marginal cost, such as the inclusion of questions on parental birthplace, instituting a regular survey of randomly selected legal immigrants, and the use of the “two-card method” in statistical data. PMID:23990685

  14. Statistics, Adjusted Statistics, and Maladjusted Statistics.

    PubMed

    Kaufman, Jay S

    2017-05-01

    Statistical adjustment is a ubiquitous practice in all quantitative fields that is meant to correct for improprieties or limitations in observed data, to remove the influence of nuisance variables or to turn observed correlations into causal inferences. These adjustments proceed by reporting not what was observed in the real world, but instead modeling what would have been observed in an imaginary world in which specific nuisances and improprieties are absent. These techniques are powerful and useful inferential tools, but their application can be hazardous or deleterious if consumers of the adjusted results mistake the imaginary world of models for the real world of data. Adjustments require decisions about which factors are of primary interest and which are imagined away, and yet many adjusted results are presented without any explanation or justification for these decisions. Adjustments can be harmful if poorly motivated, and are frequently misinterpreted in the media's reporting of scientific studies. Adjustment procedures have become so routinized that many scientists and readers lose the habit of relating the reported findings back to the real world in which we live.

  15. An approach for the assessment of the statistical aspects of the SEA coupling loss factors and the vibrational energy transmission in complex aircraft structures: Experimental investigation and methods benchmark

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bouhaj, M.; von Estorff, O.; Peiffer, A.

    2017-09-01

    In the application of Statistical Energy Analysis "SEA" to complex assembled structures, a purely predictive model often exhibits errors. These errors are mainly due to a lack of accurate modelling of the power transmission mechanism described through the Coupling Loss Factors (CLF). Experimental SEA (ESEA) is practically used by the automotive and aerospace industry to verify and update the model or to derive the CLFs for use in an SEA predictive model when analytical estimates cannot be made. This work is particularly motivated by the lack of procedures that allow an estimate to be made of the variance and confidence intervals of the statistical quantities when using the ESEA technique. The aim of this paper is to introduce procedures enabling a statistical description of measured power input, vibration energies and the derived SEA parameters. Particular emphasis is placed on the identification of structural CLFs of complex built-up structures comparing different methods. By adopting a Stochastic Energy Model (SEM), the ensemble average in ESEA is also addressed. For this purpose, expressions are obtained to randomly perturb the energy matrix elements and generate individual samples for the Monte Carlo (MC) technique applied to derive the ensemble averaged CLF. From results of ESEA tests conducted on an aircraft fuselage section, the SEM approach provides a better performance of estimated CLFs compared to classical matrix inversion methods. The expected range of CLF values and the synthesized energy are used as quality criteria of the matrix inversion, allowing to assess critical SEA subsystems, which might require a more refined statistical description of the excitation and the response fields. Moreover, the impact of the variance of the normalized vibration energy on uncertainty of the derived CLFs is outlined.

  16. Power-Law Statistics of Driven Reconnection in the Magnetically Closed Corona

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Klimchuk, J. A.; DeVore, C. R.; Knizhnik, K. J.; Uritskiy, V. M.

    2018-01-01

    Numerous observations have revealed that power-law distributions are ubiquitous in energetic solar processes. Hard X-rays, soft X-rays, extreme ultraviolet radiation, and radio waves all display power-law frequency distributions. Since magnetic reconnection is the driving mechanism for many energetic solar phenomena, it is likely that reconnection events themselves display such power-law distributions. In this work, we perform numerical simulations of the solar corona driven by simple convective motions at the photospheric level. Using temperature changes, current distributions, and Poynting fluxes as proxies for heating, we demonstrate that energetic events occurring in our simulation display power-law frequency distributions, with slopes in good agreement with observations. We suggest that the braiding-associated reconnection in the corona can be understood in terms of a self-organized criticality model driven by convective rotational motions similar to those observed at the photosphere.

  17. Towards sound epistemological foundations of statistical methods for high-dimensional biology.

    PubMed

    Mehta, Tapan; Tanik, Murat; Allison, David B

    2004-09-01

    A sound epistemological foundation for biological inquiry comes, in part, from application of valid statistical procedures. This tenet is widely appreciated by scientists studying the new realm of high-dimensional biology, or 'omic' research, which involves multiplicity at unprecedented scales. Many papers aimed at the high-dimensional biology community describe the development or application of statistical techniques. The validity of many of these is questionable, and a shared understanding about the epistemological foundations of the statistical methods themselves seems to be lacking. Here we offer a framework in which the epistemological foundation of proposed statistical methods can be evaluated.

  18. Coupling strength assumption in statistical energy analysis

    PubMed Central

    Lafont, T.; Totaro, N.

    2017-01-01

    This paper is a discussion of the hypothesis of weak coupling in statistical energy analysis (SEA). The examples of coupled oscillators and statistical ensembles of coupled plates excited by broadband random forces are discussed. In each case, a reference calculation is compared with the SEA calculation. First, it is shown that the main SEA relation, the coupling power proportionality, is always valid for two oscillators irrespective of the coupling strength. But the case of three subsystems, consisting of oscillators or ensembles of plates, indicates that the coupling power proportionality fails when the coupling is strong. Strong coupling leads to non-zero indirect coupling loss factors and, sometimes, even to a reversal of the energy flow direction from low to high vibrational temperature. PMID:28484335

  19. Performance of Reclassification Statistics in Comparing Risk Prediction Models

    PubMed Central

    Paynter, Nina P.

    2012-01-01

    Concerns have been raised about the use of traditional measures of model fit in evaluating risk prediction models for clinical use, and reclassification tables have been suggested as an alternative means of assessing the clinical utility of a model. Several measures based on the table have been proposed, including the reclassification calibration (RC) statistic, the net reclassification improvement (NRI), and the integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), but the performance of these in practical settings has not been fully examined. We used simulations to estimate the type I error and power for these statistics in a number of scenarios, as well as the impact of the number and type of categories, when adding a new marker to an established or reference model. The type I error was found to be reasonable in most settings, and power was highest for the IDI, which was similar to the test of association. The relative power of the RC statistic, a test of calibration, and the NRI, a test of discrimination, varied depending on the model assumptions. These tools provide unique but complementary information. PMID:21294152

  20. CORSSA: The Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Michael, Andrew J.; Wiemer, Stefan

    2010-01-01

    Statistical seismology is the application of rigorous statistical methods to earthquake science with the goal of improving our knowledge of how the earth works. Within statistical seismology there is a strong emphasis on the analysis of seismicity data in order to improve our scientific understanding of earthquakes and to improve the evaluation and testing of earthquake forecasts, earthquake early warning, and seismic hazards assessments. Given the societal importance of these applications, statistical seismology must be done well. Unfortunately, a lack of educational resources and available software tools make it difficult for students and new practitioners to learn about this discipline. The goal of the Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis (CORSSA) is to promote excellence in statistical seismology by providing the knowledge and resources necessary to understand and implement the best practices, so that the reader can apply these methods to their own research. This introduction describes the motivation for and vision of CORRSA. It also describes its structure and contents.

  1. An Update on Statistical Boosting in Biomedicine.

    PubMed

    Mayr, Andreas; Hofner, Benjamin; Waldmann, Elisabeth; Hepp, Tobias; Meyer, Sebastian; Gefeller, Olaf

    2017-01-01

    Statistical boosting algorithms have triggered a lot of research during the last decade. They combine a powerful machine learning approach with classical statistical modelling, offering various practical advantages like automated variable selection and implicit regularization of effect estimates. They are extremely flexible, as the underlying base-learners (regression functions defining the type of effect for the explanatory variables) can be combined with any kind of loss function (target function to be optimized, defining the type of regression setting). In this review article, we highlight the most recent methodological developments on statistical boosting regarding variable selection, functional regression, and advanced time-to-event modelling. Additionally, we provide a short overview on relevant applications of statistical boosting in biomedicine.

  2. Are resting state spectral power measures related to executive functions in healthy young adults?

    PubMed

    Gordon, Shirley; Todder, Doron; Deutsch, Inbal; Garbi, Dror; Getter, Nir; Meiran, Nachshon

    2018-01-08

    Resting-state electroencephalogram (rsEEG) has been found to be associated with psychopathology, intelligence, problem solving, academic performance and is sometimes used as a supportive physiological indicator of enhancement in cognitive training interventions (e.g. neurofeedback, working memory training). In the current study, we measured rsEEG spectral power measures (relative power, between-band ratios and asymmetry) in one hundred sixty five young adults who were also tested on a battery of executive function (EF). We specifically focused on upper Alpha, Theta and Beta frequency bands given their putative role in EF. Our indices enabled finding correlations since they had decent-to-excellent internal and retest reliability and very little range restriction relative to a nation-wide representative large sample. Nonetheless, Bayesian statistical inference indicated support for the null hypothesis concerning lack of monotonic correlation between EF and rsEEG spectral power measures. Therefore, we conclude that, contrary to the quite common interpretation, these rsEEG spectral power measures do not indicate individual differences in the measured EF abilities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Ecological statistics of Gestalt laws for the perceptual organization of contours.

    PubMed

    Elder, James H; Goldberg, Richard M

    2002-01-01

    Although numerous studies have measured the strength of visual grouping cues for controlled psychophysical stimuli, little is known about the statistical utility of these various cues for natural images. In this study, we conducted experiments in which human participants trace perceived contours in natural images. These contours are automatically mapped to sequences of discrete tangent elements detected in the image. By examining relational properties between pairs of successive tangents on these traced curves, and between randomly selected pairs of tangents, we are able to estimate the likelihood distributions required to construct an optimal Bayesian model for contour grouping. We employed this novel methodology to investigate the inferential power of three classical Gestalt cues for contour grouping: proximity, good continuation, and luminance similarity. The study yielded a number of important results: (1) these cues, when appropriately defined, are approximately uncorrelated, suggesting a simple factorial model for statistical inference; (2) moderate image-to-image variation of the statistics indicates the utility of general probabilistic models for perceptual organization; (3) these cues differ greatly in their inferential power, proximity being by far the most powerful; and (4) statistical modeling of the proximity cue indicates a scale-invariant power law in close agreement with prior psychophysics.

  4. A κ-generalized statistical mechanics approach to income analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clementi, F.; Gallegati, M.; Kaniadakis, G.

    2009-02-01

    This paper proposes a statistical mechanics approach to the analysis of income distribution and inequality. A new distribution function, having its roots in the framework of κ-generalized statistics, is derived that is particularly suitable for describing the whole spectrum of incomes, from the low-middle income region up to the high income Pareto power-law regime. Analytical expressions for the shape, moments and some other basic statistical properties are given. Furthermore, several well-known econometric tools for measuring inequality, which all exist in a closed form, are considered. A method for parameter estimation is also discussed. The model is shown to fit remarkably well the data on personal income for the United States, and the analysis of inequality performed in terms of its parameters is revealed as very powerful.

  5. Hunting Solomonoff's Swans: Exploring the Boundary Between Physics and Statistics in Hydrological Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nearing, G. S.

    2014-12-01

    Statistical models consistently out-perform conceptual models in the short term, however to account for a nonstationary future (or an unobserved past) scientists prefer to base predictions on unchanging and commutable properties of the universe - i.e., physics. The problem with physically-based hydrology models is, of course, that they aren't really based on physics - they are based on statistical approximations of physical interactions, and we almost uniformly lack an understanding of the entropy associated with these approximations. Thermodynamics is successful precisely because entropy statistics are computable for homogeneous (well-mixed) systems, and ergodic arguments explain the success of Newton's laws to describe systems that are fundamentally quantum in nature. Unfortunately, similar arguments do not hold for systems like watersheds that are heterogeneous at a wide range of scales. Ray Solomonoff formalized the situation in 1968 by showing that given infinite evidence, simultaneously minimizing model complexity and entropy in predictions always leads to the best possible model. The open question in hydrology is about what happens when we don't have infinite evidence - for example, when the future will not look like the past, or when one watershed does not behave like another. How do we isolate stationary and commutable components of watershed behavior? I propose that one possible answer to this dilemma lies in a formal combination of physics and statistics. In this talk I outline my recent analogue (Solomonoff's theorem was digital) of Solomonoff's idea that allows us to quantify the complexity/entropy tradeoff in a way that is intuitive to physical scientists. I show how to formally combine "physical" and statistical methods for model development in a way that allows us to derive the theoretically best possible model given any given physics approximation(s) and available observations. Finally, I apply an analogue of Solomonoff's theorem to evaluate the

  6. Exponential order statistic models of software reliability growth

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Miller, D. R.

    1985-01-01

    Failure times of a software reliabilty growth process are modeled as order statistics of independent, nonidentically distributed exponential random variables. The Jelinsky-Moranda, Goel-Okumoto, Littlewood, Musa-Okumoto Logarithmic, and Power Law models are all special cases of Exponential Order Statistic Models, but there are many additional examples also. Various characterizations, properties and examples of this class of models are developed and presented.

  7. A nonparametric spatial scan statistic for continuous data.

    PubMed

    Jung, Inkyung; Cho, Ho Jin

    2015-10-20

    Spatial scan statistics are widely used for spatial cluster detection, and several parametric models exist. For continuous data, a normal-based scan statistic can be used. However, the performance of the model has not been fully evaluated for non-normal data. We propose a nonparametric spatial scan statistic based on the Wilcoxon rank-sum test statistic and compared the performance of the method with parametric models via a simulation study under various scenarios. The nonparametric method outperforms the normal-based scan statistic in terms of power and accuracy in almost all cases under consideration in the simulation study. The proposed nonparametric spatial scan statistic is therefore an excellent alternative to the normal model for continuous data and is especially useful for data following skewed or heavy-tailed distributions.

  8. Lack of quantitative training among early-career ecologists: a survey of the problem and potential solutions

    PubMed Central

    Ezard, Thomas H.G.; Jørgensen, Peter S.; Zimmerman, Naupaka; Chamberlain, Scott; Salguero-Gómez, Roberto; Curran, Timothy J.; Poisot, Timothée

    2014-01-01

    Proficiency in mathematics and statistics is essential to modern ecological science, yet few studies have assessed the level of quantitative training received by ecologists. To do so, we conducted an online survey. The 937 respondents were mostly early-career scientists who studied biology as undergraduates. We found a clear self-perceived lack of quantitative training: 75% were not satisfied with their understanding of mathematical models; 75% felt that the level of mathematics was “too low” in their ecology classes; 90% wanted more mathematics classes for ecologists; and 95% more statistics classes. Respondents thought that 30% of classes in ecology-related degrees should be focused on quantitative disciplines, which is likely higher than for most existing programs. The main suggestion to improve quantitative training was to relate theoretical and statistical modeling to applied ecological problems. Improving quantitative training will require dedicated, quantitative classes for ecology-related degrees that contain good mathematical and statistical practice. PMID:24688862

  9. Estimating statistical power for open-enrollment group treatment trials.

    PubMed

    Morgan-Lopez, Antonio A; Saavedra, Lissette M; Hien, Denise A; Fals-Stewart, William

    2011-01-01

    Modeling turnover in group membership has been identified as a key barrier contributing to a disconnect between the manner in which behavioral treatment is conducted (open-enrollment groups) and the designs of substance abuse treatment trials (closed-enrollment groups, individual therapy). Latent class pattern mixture models (LCPMMs) are emerging tools for modeling data from open-enrollment groups with membership turnover in recently proposed treatment trials. The current article illustrates an approach to conducting power analyses for open-enrollment designs based on the Monte Carlo simulation of LCPMM models using parameters derived from published data from a randomized controlled trial comparing Seeking Safety to a Community Care condition for women presenting with comorbid posttraumatic stress disorder and substance use disorders. The example addresses discrepancies between the analysis framework assumed in power analyses of many recently proposed open-enrollment trials and the proposed use of LCPMM for data analysis. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. A Powerful Procedure for Pathway-Based Meta-analysis Using Summary Statistics Identifies 43 Pathways Associated with Type II Diabetes in European Populations

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Han; Wheeler, William; Hyland, Paula L.; Yang, Yifan; Shi, Jianxin; Chatterjee, Nilanjan; Yu, Kai

    2016-01-01

    Meta-analysis of multiple genome-wide association studies (GWAS) has become an effective approach for detecting single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) associations with complex traits. However, it is difficult to integrate the readily accessible SNP-level summary statistics from a meta-analysis into more powerful multi-marker testing procedures, which generally require individual-level genetic data. We developed a general procedure called Summary based Adaptive Rank Truncated Product (sARTP) for conducting gene and pathway meta-analysis that uses only SNP-level summary statistics in combination with genotype correlation estimated from a panel of individual-level genetic data. We demonstrated the validity and power advantage of sARTP through empirical and simulated data. We conducted a comprehensive pathway-based meta-analysis with sARTP on type 2 diabetes (T2D) by integrating SNP-level summary statistics from two large studies consisting of 19,809 T2D cases and 111,181 controls with European ancestry. Among 4,713 candidate pathways from which genes in neighborhoods of 170 GWAS established T2D loci were excluded, we detected 43 T2D globally significant pathways (with Bonferroni corrected p-values < 0.05), which included the insulin signaling pathway and T2D pathway defined by KEGG, as well as the pathways defined according to specific gene expression patterns on pancreatic adenocarcinoma, hepatocellular carcinoma, and bladder carcinoma. Using summary data from 8 eastern Asian T2D GWAS with 6,952 cases and 11,865 controls, we showed 7 out of the 43 pathways identified in European populations remained to be significant in eastern Asians at the false discovery rate of 0.1. We created an R package and a web-based tool for sARTP with the capability to analyze pathways with thousands of genes and tens of thousands of SNPs. PMID:27362418

  11. A Powerful Procedure for Pathway-Based Meta-analysis Using Summary Statistics Identifies 43 Pathways Associated with Type II Diabetes in European Populations.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Han; Wheeler, William; Hyland, Paula L; Yang, Yifan; Shi, Jianxin; Chatterjee, Nilanjan; Yu, Kai

    2016-06-01

    Meta-analysis of multiple genome-wide association studies (GWAS) has become an effective approach for detecting single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) associations with complex traits. However, it is difficult to integrate the readily accessible SNP-level summary statistics from a meta-analysis into more powerful multi-marker testing procedures, which generally require individual-level genetic data. We developed a general procedure called Summary based Adaptive Rank Truncated Product (sARTP) for conducting gene and pathway meta-analysis that uses only SNP-level summary statistics in combination with genotype correlation estimated from a panel of individual-level genetic data. We demonstrated the validity and power advantage of sARTP through empirical and simulated data. We conducted a comprehensive pathway-based meta-analysis with sARTP on type 2 diabetes (T2D) by integrating SNP-level summary statistics from two large studies consisting of 19,809 T2D cases and 111,181 controls with European ancestry. Among 4,713 candidate pathways from which genes in neighborhoods of 170 GWAS established T2D loci were excluded, we detected 43 T2D globally significant pathways (with Bonferroni corrected p-values < 0.05), which included the insulin signaling pathway and T2D pathway defined by KEGG, as well as the pathways defined according to specific gene expression patterns on pancreatic adenocarcinoma, hepatocellular carcinoma, and bladder carcinoma. Using summary data from 8 eastern Asian T2D GWAS with 6,952 cases and 11,865 controls, we showed 7 out of the 43 pathways identified in European populations remained to be significant in eastern Asians at the false discovery rate of 0.1. We created an R package and a web-based tool for sARTP with the capability to analyze pathways with thousands of genes and tens of thousands of SNPs.

  12. Towards a web-based decision support tool for selecting appropriate statistical test in medical and biological sciences.

    PubMed

    Suner, Aslı; Karakülah, Gökhan; Dicle, Oğuz

    2014-01-01

    Statistical hypothesis testing is an essential component of biological and medical studies for making inferences and estimations from the collected data in the study; however, the misuse of statistical tests is widely common. In order to prevent possible errors in convenient statistical test selection, it is currently possible to consult available test selection algorithms developed for various purposes. However, the lack of an algorithm presenting the most common statistical tests used in biomedical research in a single flowchart causes several problems such as shifting users among the algorithms, poor decision support in test selection and lack of satisfaction of potential users. Herein, we demonstrated a unified flowchart; covers mostly used statistical tests in biomedical domain, to provide decision aid to non-statistician users while choosing the appropriate statistical test for testing their hypothesis. We also discuss some of the findings while we are integrating the flowcharts into each other to develop a single but more comprehensive decision algorithm.

  13. GeoGebra for Mathematical Statistics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hewson, Paul

    2009-01-01

    The GeoGebra software is attracting a lot of interest in the mathematical community, consequently there is a wide range of experience and resources to help use this application. This article briefly outlines how GeoGebra will be of great value in statistical education. The release of GeoGebra is an excellent example of the power of free software…

  14. Impact of statistical learning methods on the predictive power of multivariate normal tissue complication probability models.

    PubMed

    Xu, Cheng-Jian; van der Schaaf, Arjen; Schilstra, Cornelis; Langendijk, Johannes A; van't Veld, Aart A

    2012-03-15

    To study the impact of different statistical learning methods on the prediction performance of multivariate normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models. In this study, three learning methods, stepwise selection, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), and Bayesian model averaging (BMA), were used to build NTCP models of xerostomia following radiotherapy treatment for head and neck cancer. Performance of each learning method was evaluated by a repeated cross-validation scheme in order to obtain a fair comparison among methods. It was found that the LASSO and BMA methods produced models with significantly better predictive power than that of the stepwise selection method. Furthermore, the LASSO method yields an easily interpretable model as the stepwise method does, in contrast to the less intuitive BMA method. The commonly used stepwise selection method, which is simple to execute, may be insufficient for NTCP modeling. The LASSO method is recommended. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Mathematical Power: Exploring Critical Pedagogy in Mathematics and Statistics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lesser, Lawrence M.; Blake, Sally

    2007-01-01

    Though traditionally viewed as value-free, mathematics is actually one of the most powerful, yet underutilized, venues for working towards the goals of critical pedagogy--social, political and economic justice for all. This emerging awareness is due to how critical mathematics educators such as Frankenstein, Skovsmose and Gutstein have applied the…

  16. 29 CFR 779.316 - Establishments outside “retail concept” not within statutory definition; lack first requirement.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... Retailâ § 779.316 Establishments outside “retail concept” not within statutory definition; lack first... power company selling electrical energy to private consumers. As to establishments of such businesses, therefore, a concept of retail selling or servicing does not exist. That it was the intent of Congress to...

  17. Power Enhancement in High Dimensional Cross-Sectional Tests

    PubMed Central

    Fan, Jianqing; Liao, Yuan; Yao, Jiawei

    2016-01-01

    We propose a novel technique to boost the power of testing a high-dimensional vector H : θ = 0 against sparse alternatives where the null hypothesis is violated only by a couple of components. Existing tests based on quadratic forms such as the Wald statistic often suffer from low powers due to the accumulation of errors in estimating high-dimensional parameters. More powerful tests for sparse alternatives such as thresholding and extreme-value tests, on the other hand, require either stringent conditions or bootstrap to derive the null distribution and often suffer from size distortions due to the slow convergence. Based on a screening technique, we introduce a “power enhancement component”, which is zero under the null hypothesis with high probability, but diverges quickly under sparse alternatives. The proposed test statistic combines the power enhancement component with an asymptotically pivotal statistic, and strengthens the power under sparse alternatives. The null distribution does not require stringent regularity conditions, and is completely determined by that of the pivotal statistic. As specific applications, the proposed methods are applied to testing the factor pricing models and validating the cross-sectional independence in panel data models. PMID:26778846

  18. NIRS-SPM: statistical parametric mapping for near infrared spectroscopy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tak, Sungho; Jang, Kwang Eun; Jung, Jinwook; Jang, Jaeduck; Jeong, Yong; Ye, Jong Chul

    2008-02-01

    Even though there exists a powerful statistical parametric mapping (SPM) tool for fMRI, similar public domain tools are not available for near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS). In this paper, we describe a new public domain statistical toolbox called NIRS-SPM for quantitative analysis of NIRS signals. Specifically, NIRS-SPM statistically analyzes the NIRS data using GLM and makes inference as the excursion probability which comes from the random field that are interpolated from the sparse measurement. In order to obtain correct inference, NIRS-SPM offers the pre-coloring and pre-whitening method for temporal correlation estimation. For simultaneous recording NIRS signal with fMRI, the spatial mapping between fMRI image and real coordinate in 3-D digitizer is estimated using Horn's algorithm. These powerful tools allows us the super-resolution localization of the brain activation which is not possible using the conventional NIRS analysis tools.

  19. On real statistics of relaxation in gases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuzovlev, Yu. E.

    2016-02-01

    By example of a particle interacting with ideal gas, it is shown that the statistics of collisions in statistical mechanics at any value of the gas rarefaction parameter qualitatively differ from that conjugated with Boltzmann's hypothetical molecular chaos and kinetic equation. In reality, the probability of collisions of the particle in itself is random. Because of that, the relaxation of particle velocity acquires a power-law asymptotic behavior. An estimate of its exponent is suggested on the basis of simple kinematic reasons.

  20. Ethernet-Enabled Power and Communication Module for Embedded Processors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Perotti, Jose; Oostdyk, Rebecca

    2010-01-01

    The power and communications module is a printed circuit board (PCB) that has the capability of providing power to an embedded processor and converting Ethernet packets into serial data to transfer to the processor. The purpose of the new design is to address the shortcomings of previous designs, including limited bandwidth and program memory, lack of control over packet processing, and lack of support for timing synchronization. The new design of the module creates a robust serial-to-Ethernet conversion that is powered using the existing Ethernet cable. This innovation has a small form factor that allows it to power processors and transducers with minimal space requirements.

  1. Efficiency Analysis: Enhancing the Statistical and Evaluative Power of the Regression-Discontinuity Design.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Madhere, Serge

    An analytic procedure, efficiency analysis, is proposed for improving the utility of quantitative program evaluation for decision making. The three features of the procedure are explained: (1) for statistical control, it adopts and extends the regression-discontinuity design; (2) for statistical inferences, it de-emphasizes hypothesis testing in…

  2. Scattering and transport statistics at the metal-insulator transition: A numerical study of the power-law banded random-matrix model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Méndez-Bermúdez, J. A.; Gopar, Victor A.; Varga, Imre

    2010-09-01

    We study numerically scattering and transport statistical properties of the one-dimensional Anderson model at the metal-insulator transition described by the power-law banded random matrix (PBRM) model at criticality. Within a scattering approach to electronic transport, we concentrate on the case of a small number of single-channel attached leads. We observe a smooth crossover from localized to delocalized behavior in the average-scattering matrix elements, the conductance probability distribution, the variance of the conductance, and the shot noise power by varying b (the effective bandwidth of the PBRM model) from small (b≪1) to large (b>1) values. We contrast our results with analytic random matrix theory predictions which are expected to be recovered in the limit b→∞ . We also compare our results for the PBRM model with those for the three-dimensional (3D) Anderson model at criticality, finding that the PBRM model with bɛ[0.2,0.4] reproduces well the scattering and transport properties of the 3D Anderson model.

  3. Some new results on the statistics of radio wave scintillation. I - Empirical evidence for Gaussian statistics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rino, C. L.; Livingston, R. C.; Whitney, H. E.

    1976-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of ionospheric scintillation data which shows that the underlying statistical structure of the signal can be accurately modeled by the additive complex Gaussian perturbation predicted by the Born approximation in conjunction with an application of the central limit theorem. By making use of this fact, it is possible to estimate the in-phase, phase quadrature, and cophased scattered power by curve fitting to measured intensity histograms. By using this procedure, it is found that typically more than 80% of the scattered power is in phase quadrature with the undeviated signal component. Thus, the signal is modeled by a Gaussian, but highly non-Rician process. From simultaneous UHF and VHF data, only a weak dependence of this statistical structure on changes in the Fresnel radius is deduced. The signal variance is found to have a nonquadratic wavelength dependence. It is hypothesized that this latter effect is a subtle manifestation of locally homogeneous irregularity structures, a mathematical model proposed by Kolmogorov (1941) in his early studies of incompressible fluid turbulence.

  4. Statistical Analysis of Big Data on Pharmacogenomics

    PubMed Central

    Fan, Jianqing; Liu, Han

    2013-01-01

    This paper discusses statistical methods for estimating complex correlation structure from large pharmacogenomic datasets. We selectively review several prominent statistical methods for estimating large covariance matrix for understanding correlation structure, inverse covariance matrix for network modeling, large-scale simultaneous tests for selecting significantly differently expressed genes and proteins and genetic markers for complex diseases, and high dimensional variable selection for identifying important molecules for understanding molecule mechanisms in pharmacogenomics. Their applications to gene network estimation and biomarker selection are used to illustrate the methodological power. Several new challenges of Big data analysis, including complex data distribution, missing data, measurement error, spurious correlation, endogeneity, and the need for robust statistical methods, are also discussed. PMID:23602905

  5. Statistics of Fractionalized Excitations through Threshold Spectroscopy.

    PubMed

    Morampudi, Siddhardh C; Turner, Ari M; Pollmann, Frank; Wilczek, Frank

    2017-06-02

    We show that neutral anyonic excitations have a signature in spectroscopic measurements of materials: The low-energy onset of spectral functions near the threshold follows universal power laws with an exponent that depends only on the statistics of the anyons. This provides a route, using experimental techniques such as neutron scattering and tunneling spectroscopy, for detecting anyonic statistics in topologically ordered states such as gapped quantum spin liquids and hypothesized fractional Chern insulators. Our calculations also explain some recent theoretical results in spin systems.

  6. Using the bootstrap to establish statistical significance for relative validity comparisons among patient-reported outcome measures

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Relative validity (RV), a ratio of ANOVA F-statistics, is often used to compare the validity of patient-reported outcome (PRO) measures. We used the bootstrap to establish the statistical significance of the RV and to identify key factors affecting its significance. Methods Based on responses from 453 chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients to 16 CKD-specific and generic PRO measures, RVs were computed to determine how well each measure discriminated across clinically-defined groups of patients compared to the most discriminating (reference) measure. Statistical significance of RV was quantified by the 95% bootstrap confidence interval. Simulations examined the effects of sample size, denominator F-statistic, correlation between comparator and reference measures, and number of bootstrap replicates. Results The statistical significance of the RV increased as the magnitude of denominator F-statistic increased or as the correlation between comparator and reference measures increased. A denominator F-statistic of 57 conveyed sufficient power (80%) to detect an RV of 0.6 for two measures correlated at r = 0.7. Larger denominator F-statistics or higher correlations provided greater power. Larger sample size with a fixed denominator F-statistic or more bootstrap replicates (beyond 500) had minimal impact. Conclusions The bootstrap is valuable for establishing the statistical significance of RV estimates. A reasonably large denominator F-statistic (F > 57) is required for adequate power when using the RV to compare the validity of measures with small or moderate correlations (r < 0.7). Substantially greater power can be achieved when comparing measures of a very high correlation (r > 0.9). PMID:23721463

  7. Increased statistical power with combined independent randomization tests used with multiple-baseline design.

    PubMed

    Tyrrell, Pascal N; Corey, Paul N; Feldman, Brian M; Silverman, Earl D

    2013-06-01

    Physicians often assess the effectiveness of treatments on a small number of patients. Multiple-baseline designs (MBDs), based on the Wampold-Worsham (WW) method of randomization and applied to four subjects, have relatively low power. Our objective was to propose another approach with greater power that does not suffer from the time requirements of the WW method applied to a greater number of subjects. The power of a design that involves the combination of two four-subject MBDs was estimated using computer simulation and compared with the four- and eight-subject designs. The effect of a delayed linear response to treatment on the power of the test was also investigated. Power was found to be adequate (>80%) for a standardized mean difference (SMD) greater than 0.8. The effect size associated with 80% power from combined tests was smaller than that of the single four-subject MBD (SMD=1.3) and comparable with the eight-subject MBD (SMD=0.6). A delayed linear response to the treatment resulted in important reductions in power (20-35%). By combining two four-subject MBD tests, an investigator can detect better effect sizes (SMD=0.8) and be able to complete a comparatively timelier and feasible study. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Using R-Project for Free Statistical Analysis in Extension Research

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mangiafico, Salvatore S.

    2013-01-01

    One option for Extension professionals wishing to use free statistical software is to use online calculators, which are useful for common, simple analyses. A second option is to use a free computing environment capable of performing statistical analyses, like R-project. R-project is free, cross-platform, powerful, and respected, but may be…

  9. The influence of control group reproduction on the statistical ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Because of various Congressional mandates to protect the environment from endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs), the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) initiated the Endocrine Disruptor Screening Program. In the context of this framework, the Office of Research and Development within the USEPA developed the Medaka Extended One Generation Reproduction Test (MEOGRT) to characterize the endocrine action of a suspected EDC. One important endpoint of the MEOGRT is fecundity of breeding pairs of medaka. Power analyses were conducted to determine the number of replicates needed in proposed test designs and to determine the effects that varying reproductive parameters (e.g. mean fecundity, variance, and days with no egg production) will have on the statistical power of the test. A software tool, the MEOGRT Reproduction Power Analysis Tool, was developed to expedite these power analyses by both calculating estimates of the needed reproductive parameters (e.g. population mean and variance) and performing the power analysis under user specified scenarios. The manuscript illustrates how the reproductive performance of the control medaka that are used in a MEOGRT influence statistical power, and therefore the successful implementation of the protocol. Example scenarios, based upon medaka reproduction data collected at MED, are discussed that bolster the recommendation that facilities planning to implement the MEOGRT should have a culture of medaka with hi

  10. APPLICATION OF STATISTICAL ENERGY ANALYSIS TO VIBRATIONS OF MULTI-PANEL STRUCTURES.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    cylindrical shell are compared with predictions obtained from statistical energy analysis . Generally good agreement is observed. The flow of mechanical...the coefficients of proportionality between power flow and average modal energy difference, which one must know in order to apply statistical energy analysis . No

  11. A flexibly shaped space-time scan statistic for disease outbreak detection and monitoring.

    PubMed

    Takahashi, Kunihiko; Kulldorff, Martin; Tango, Toshiro; Yih, Katherine

    2008-04-11

    Early detection of disease outbreaks enables public health officials to implement disease control and prevention measures at the earliest possible time. A time periodic geographical disease surveillance system based on a cylindrical space-time scan statistic has been used extensively for disease surveillance along with the SaTScan software. In the purely spatial setting, many different methods have been proposed to detect spatial disease clusters. In particular, some spatial scan statistics are aimed at detecting irregularly shaped clusters which may not be detected by the circular spatial scan statistic. Based on the flexible purely spatial scan statistic, we propose a flexibly shaped space-time scan statistic for early detection of disease outbreaks. The performance of the proposed space-time scan statistic is compared with that of the cylindrical scan statistic using benchmark data. In order to compare their performances, we have developed a space-time power distribution by extending the purely spatial bivariate power distribution. Daily syndromic surveillance data in Massachusetts, USA, are used to illustrate the proposed test statistic. The flexible space-time scan statistic is well suited for detecting and monitoring disease outbreaks in irregularly shaped areas.

  12. Obstacles to Innovation in Brazil: The Lack of Qualified Individuals to Implement Innovation and Establish University-Firm Interactions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rapini, Marcia Siqueira; Chiarini, Tulio; Bittencourt, Pablo Felipe

    2017-01-01

    Through an investigation of data available from the Brazilian Innovation Survey (Pesquisa de Inovação) of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística) and from a national survey on university-firm interactions (the BR Survey), the authors show that Brazilian industrial firms lack qualified…

  13. Impact of Measurement Error on Statistical Power: Review of an Old Paradox.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Williams, Richard H.; And Others

    1995-01-01

    The paradox that a Student t-test based on pretest-posttest differences can attain its greatest power when the difference score reliability is zero was explained by demonstrating that power is not a mathematical function of reliability unless either true score variance or error score variance is constant. (SLD)

  14. Experimental design, power and sample size for animal reproduction experiments.

    PubMed

    Chapman, Phillip L; Seidel, George E

    2008-01-01

    The present paper concerns statistical issues in the design of animal reproduction experiments, with emphasis on the problems of sample size determination and power calculations. We include examples and non-technical discussions aimed at helping researchers avoid serious errors that may invalidate or seriously impair the validity of conclusions from experiments. Screen shots from interactive power calculation programs and basic SAS power calculation programs are presented to aid in understanding statistical power and computing power in some common experimental situations. Practical issues that are common to most statistical design problems are briefly discussed. These include one-sided hypothesis tests, power level criteria, equality of within-group variances, transformations of response variables to achieve variance equality, optimal specification of treatment group sizes, 'post hoc' power analysis and arguments for the increased use of confidence intervals in place of hypothesis tests.

  15. Sound texture perception via statistics of the auditory periphery: Evidence from sound synthesis

    PubMed Central

    McDermott, Josh H.; Simoncelli, Eero P.

    2014-01-01

    Rainstorms, insect swarms, and galloping horses produce “sound textures” – the collective result of many similar acoustic events. Sound textures are distinguished by temporal homogeneity, suggesting they could be recognized with time-averaged statistics. To test this hypothesis, we processed real-world textures with an auditory model containing filters tuned for sound frequencies and their modulations, and measured statistics of the resulting decomposition. We then assessed the realism and recognizability of novel sounds synthesized to have matching statistics. Statistics of individual frequency channels, capturing spectral power and sparsity, generally failed to produce compelling synthetic textures. However, combining them with correlations between channels produced identifiable and natural-sounding textures. Synthesis quality declined if statistics were computed from biologically implausible auditory models. The results suggest that sound texture perception is mediated by relatively simple statistics of early auditory representations, presumably computed by downstream neural populations. The synthesis methodology offers a powerful tool for their further investigation. PMID:21903084

  16. Statistical inference for tumor growth inhibition T/C ratio.

    PubMed

    Wu, Jianrong

    2010-09-01

    The tumor growth inhibition T/C ratio is commonly used to quantify treatment effects in drug screening tumor xenograft experiments. The T/C ratio is converted to an antitumor activity rating using an arbitrary cutoff point and often without any formal statistical inference. Here, we applied a nonparametric bootstrap method and a small sample likelihood ratio statistic to make a statistical inference of the T/C ratio, including both hypothesis testing and a confidence interval estimate. Furthermore, sample size and power are also discussed for statistical design of tumor xenograft experiments. Tumor xenograft data from an actual experiment were analyzed to illustrate the application.

  17. MIDAS: Regionally linear multivariate discriminative statistical mapping.

    PubMed

    Varol, Erdem; Sotiras, Aristeidis; Davatzikos, Christos

    2018-07-01

    Statistical parametric maps formed via voxel-wise mass-univariate tests, such as the general linear model, are commonly used to test hypotheses about regionally specific effects in neuroimaging cross-sectional studies where each subject is represented by a single image. Despite being informative, these techniques remain limited as they ignore multivariate relationships in the data. Most importantly, the commonly employed local Gaussian smoothing, which is important for accounting for registration errors and making the data follow Gaussian distributions, is usually chosen in an ad hoc fashion. Thus, it is often suboptimal for the task of detecting group differences and correlations with non-imaging variables. Information mapping techniques, such as searchlight, which use pattern classifiers to exploit multivariate information and obtain more powerful statistical maps, have become increasingly popular in recent years. However, existing methods may lead to important interpretation errors in practice (i.e., misidentifying a cluster as informative, or failing to detect truly informative voxels), while often being computationally expensive. To address these issues, we introduce a novel efficient multivariate statistical framework for cross-sectional studies, termed MIDAS, seeking highly sensitive and specific voxel-wise brain maps, while leveraging the power of regional discriminant analysis. In MIDAS, locally linear discriminative learning is applied to estimate the pattern that best discriminates between two groups, or predicts a variable of interest. This pattern is equivalent to local filtering by an optimal kernel whose coefficients are the weights of the linear discriminant. By composing information from all neighborhoods that contain a given voxel, MIDAS produces a statistic that collectively reflects the contribution of the voxel to the regional classifiers as well as the discriminative power of the classifiers. Critically, MIDAS efficiently assesses the

  18. Power and violence: the relation between communication patterns, power discrepancies, and domestic violence.

    PubMed

    Babcock, J C; Waltz, J; Jacobson, N S; Gottman, J M

    1993-02-01

    This study hypothesized that power discrepancies in the marital relationship, where the husband is subordinate, serve as risk factors for husband-to-wife violence. The construct of marital power was assessed from 3 power domains operationalized by discrepancies in economic status, decision-making power, communication patterns, and communication skill. Three groups of married couples (N = 95) were compared: domestically violent (DV), maritally distressed/nonviolent (DNV), and maritally happy/nonviolent (HNV). DV couples were more likely than the 2 nonviolent groups to engage in husband demand/wife withdraw interactions. Within the DV group, husbands who had less power were more physically abusive toward their wives. Thus, violence may be compensatory behavior to make up for husbands' lack of power in other arenas of marriage. Difficulties in assessing marital power and future direction for the study of power and violence are discussed.

  19. Network model of bilateral power markets based on complex networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Yang; Liu, Junyong; Li, Furong; Yan, Zhanxin; Zhang, Li

    2014-06-01

    The bilateral power transaction (BPT) mode becomes a typical market organization with the restructuring of electric power industry, the proper model which could capture its characteristics is in urgent need. However, the model is lacking because of this market organization's complexity. As a promising approach to modeling complex systems, complex networks could provide a sound theoretical framework for developing proper simulation model. In this paper, a complex network model of the BPT market is proposed. In this model, price advantage mechanism is a precondition. Unlike other general commodity transactions, both of the financial layer and the physical layer are considered in the model. Through simulation analysis, the feasibility and validity of the model are verified. At same time, some typical statistical features of BPT network are identified. Namely, the degree distribution follows the power law, the clustering coefficient is low and the average path length is a bit long. Moreover, the topological stability of the BPT network is tested. The results show that the network displays a topological robustness to random market member's failures while it is fragile against deliberate attacks, and the network could resist cascading failure to some extent. These features are helpful for making decisions and risk management in BPT markets.

  20. An Adaptive Association Test for Multiple Phenotypes with GWAS Summary Statistics.

    PubMed

    Kim, Junghi; Bai, Yun; Pan, Wei

    2015-12-01

    We study the problem of testing for single marker-multiple phenotype associations based on genome-wide association study (GWAS) summary statistics without access to individual-level genotype and phenotype data. For most published GWASs, because obtaining summary data is substantially easier than accessing individual-level phenotype and genotype data, while often multiple correlated traits have been collected, the problem studied here has become increasingly important. We propose a powerful adaptive test and compare its performance with some existing tests. We illustrate its applications to analyses of a meta-analyzed GWAS dataset with three blood lipid traits and another with sex-stratified anthropometric traits, and further demonstrate its potential power gain over some existing methods through realistic simulation studies. We start from the situation with only one set of (possibly meta-analyzed) genome-wide summary statistics, then extend the method to meta-analysis of multiple sets of genome-wide summary statistics, each from one GWAS. We expect the proposed test to be useful in practice as more powerful than or complementary to existing methods. © 2015 WILEY PERIODICALS, INC.

  1. A statistical framework for genetic association studies of power curves in bird flight

    PubMed Central

    Lin, Min; Zhao, Wei

    2006-01-01

    How the power required for bird flight varies as a function of forward speed can be used to predict the flight style and behavioral strategy of a bird for feeding and migration. A U-shaped curve was observed between the power and flight velocity in many birds, which is consistent to the theoretical prediction by aerodynamic models. In this article, we present a general genetic model for fine mapping of quantitative trait loci (QTL) responsible for power curves in a sample of birds drawn from a natural population. This model is developed within the maximum likelihood context, implemented with the EM algorithm for estimating the population genetic parameters of QTL and the simplex algorithm for estimating the QTL genotype-specific parameters of power curves. Using Monte Carlo simulation derived from empirical observations of power curves in the European starling (Sturnus vulgaris), we demonstrate how the underlying QTL for power curves can be detected from molecular markers and how the QTL detected affect the most appropriate flight speeds used to design an optimal migration strategy. The results from our model can be directly integrated into a conceptual framework for understanding flight origin and evolution. PMID:17066123

  2. Wind speed statistics for Goldstone, California, anemometer sites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Berg, M.; Levy, R.; Mcginness, H.; Strain, D.

    1981-01-01

    An exploratory wind survey at an antenna complex was summarized statistically for application to future windmill designs. Data were collected at six locations from a total of 10 anemometers. Statistics include means, standard deviations, cubes, pattern factors, correlation coefficients, and exponents for power law profile of wind speed. Curves presented include: mean monthly wind speeds, moving averages, and diurnal variation patterns. It is concluded that three of the locations have sufficiently strong winds to justify consideration for windmill sites.

  3. Categorization of the trophic status of a hydroelectric power plant reservoir in the Brazilian Amazon by statistical analyses and fuzzy approaches.

    PubMed

    da Costa Lobato, Tarcísio; Hauser-Davis, Rachel Ann; de Oliveira, Terezinha Ferreira; Maciel, Marinalva Cardoso; Tavares, Maria Regina Madruga; da Silveira, Antônio Morais; Saraiva, Augusto Cesar Fonseca

    2015-02-15

    The Amazon area has been increasingly suffering from anthropogenic impacts, especially due to the construction of hydroelectric power plant reservoirs. The analysis and categorization of the trophic status of these reservoirs are of interest to indicate man-made changes in the environment. In this context, the present study aimed to categorize the trophic status of a hydroelectric power plant reservoir located in the Brazilian Amazon by constructing a novel Water Quality Index (WQI) and Trophic State Index (TSI) for the reservoir using major ion concentrations and physico-chemical water parameters determined in the area and taking into account the sampling locations and the local hydrological regimes. After applying statistical analyses (factor analysis and cluster analysis) and establishing a rule base of a fuzzy system to these indicators, the results obtained by the proposed method were then compared to the generally applied Carlson and a modified Lamparelli trophic state index (TSI), specific for trophic regions. The categorization of the trophic status by the proposed fuzzy method was shown to be more reliable, since it takes into account the specificities of the study area, while the Carlson and Lamparelli TSI do not, and, thus, tend to over or underestimate the trophic status of these ecosystems. The statistical techniques proposed and applied in the present study, are, therefore, relevant in cases of environmental management and policy decision-making processes, aiding in the identification of the ecological status of water bodies. With this, it is possible to identify which factors should be further investigated and/or adjusted in order to attempt the recovery of degraded water bodies. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Statistical Physics Experiments Using Dusty Plasmas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goree, John

    2016-10-01

    Compared to other areas of physics research, Statistical Physics is heavily dominated by theory, with comparatively little experiment. One reason for the lack of experiments is the impracticality of tracking of individual atoms and molecules within a substance. Thus, there is a need for a different kind of experimental system, one where individual particles not only move stochastically as they collide with one another, but also are large enough to allow tracking. A dusty plasma can meet this need. A dusty plasma is a partially ionized gas containing small particles of solid matter. These micron-size particles gain thousands of electronic charges by collecting more electrons than ions. Their motions are dominated by Coulomb collisions with neighboring particles. In this so-called strongly coupled plasma, the dust particles self-organize in much the same way as atoms in a liquid or solid. Unlike atoms, however, these particles are large and slow, so that they can be tracked easily by video microscopy. Advantages of dusty plasma for experimental statistical physics research include particle tracking, lack of frictional contact with solid surfaces, and avoidance of overdamped motion. Moreover, the motion of a collection of dust particles can mimic an equilibrium system with a Maxwellian velocity distribution, even though the dust particles themselves are not truly in thermal equilibrium. Nonequilibrium statistical physics can be studied by applying gradients, for example by imposing a shear flow. In this talk I will review some of our recent experiments with shear flow. First, we performed the first experimental test to verify the Fluctuation Theorem for a shear flow, showing that brief violations of the Second Law of Thermodynamics occur with the predicted probabilities, for a small system. Second, we discovered a skewness of a shear-stress distribution in a shear flow. This skewness is a phenomenon that likely has wide applicability in nonequilibrium steady states

  5. A spatial scan statistic for multiple clusters.

    PubMed

    Li, Xiao-Zhou; Wang, Jin-Feng; Yang, Wei-Zhong; Li, Zhong-Jie; Lai, Sheng-Jie

    2011-10-01

    Spatial scan statistics are commonly used for geographical disease surveillance and cluster detection. While there are multiple clusters coexisting in the study area, they become difficult to detect because of clusters' shadowing effect to each other. The recently proposed sequential method showed its better power for detecting the second weaker cluster, but did not improve the ability of detecting the first stronger cluster which is more important than the second one. We propose a new extension of the spatial scan statistic which could be used to detect multiple clusters. Through constructing two or more clusters in the alternative hypothesis, our proposed method accounts for other coexisting clusters in the detecting and evaluating process. The performance of the proposed method is compared to the sequential method through an intensive simulation study, in which our proposed method shows better power in terms of both rejecting the null hypothesis and accurately detecting the coexisting clusters. In the real study of hand-foot-mouth disease data in Pingdu city, a true cluster town is successfully detected by our proposed method, which cannot be evaluated to be statistically significant by the standard method due to another cluster's shadowing effect. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Avoid lost discoveries, because of violations of standard assumptions, by using modern robust statistical methods.

    PubMed

    Wilcox, Rand; Carlson, Mike; Azen, Stan; Clark, Florence

    2013-03-01

    Recently, there have been major advances in statistical techniques for assessing central tendency and measures of association. The practical utility of modern methods has been documented extensively in the statistics literature, but they remain underused and relatively unknown in clinical trials. Our objective was to address this issue. STUDY DESIGN AND PURPOSE: The first purpose was to review common problems associated with standard methodologies (low power, lack of control over type I errors, and incorrect assessments of the strength of the association). The second purpose was to summarize some modern methods that can be used to circumvent such problems. The third purpose was to illustrate the practical utility of modern robust methods using data from the Well Elderly 2 randomized controlled trial. In multiple instances, robust methods uncovered differences among groups and associations among variables that were not detected by classic techniques. In particular, the results demonstrated that details of the nature and strength of the association were sometimes overlooked when using ordinary least squares regression and Pearson correlation. Modern robust methods can make a practical difference in detecting and describing differences between groups and associations between variables. Such procedures should be applied more frequently when analyzing trial-based data. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Evaluating efficiency and statistical power of self-controlled case series and self-controlled risk interval designs in vaccine safety.

    PubMed

    Li, Rongxia; Stewart, Brock; Weintraub, Eric

    2016-01-01

    The self-controlled case series (SCCS) and self-controlled risk interval (SCRI) designs have recently become widely used in the field of post-licensure vaccine safety monitoring to detect potential elevated risks of adverse events following vaccinations. The SCRI design can be viewed as a subset of the SCCS method in that a reduced comparison time window is used for the analysis. Compared to the SCCS method, the SCRI design has less statistical power due to fewer events occurring in the shorter control interval. In this study, we derived the asymptotic relative efficiency (ARE) between these two methods to quantify this loss in power in the SCRI design. The equation is formulated as [Formula: see text] (a: control window-length ratio between SCRI and SCCS designs; b: ratio of risk window length and control window length in the SCCS design; and [Formula: see text]: relative risk of exposed window to control window). According to this equation, the relative efficiency declines as the ratio of control-period length between SCRI and SCCS methods decreases, or with an increase in the relative risk [Formula: see text]. We provide an example utilizing data from the Vaccine Safety Datalink (VSD) to study the potential elevated risk of febrile seizure following seasonal influenza vaccine in the 2010-2011 season.

  8. Reliable and More Powerful Methods for Power Analysis in Structural Equation Modeling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yuan, Ke-Hai; Zhang, Zhiyong; Zhao, Yanyun

    2017-01-01

    The normal-distribution-based likelihood ratio statistic T[subscript ml] = nF[subscript ml] is widely used for power analysis in structural Equation modeling (SEM). In such an analysis, power and sample size are computed by assuming that T[subscript ml] follows a central chi-square distribution under H[subscript 0] and a noncentral chi-square…

  9. Quantitative trait loci for a neurocranium deformity, lack of operculum, in gilthead seabream (Sparus aurata L.).

    PubMed

    Negrín-Báez, D; Navarro, A; Afonso, J M; Toro, M A; Zamorano, M J

    2016-04-01

    Lack of operculum, a neurocranial deformity, is the most common external abnormality to be found among industrially produced gilthead seabream (Sparus aurata L.), and this entails significant financial losses. This study conducts, for the first time in this species, a quantitative trait loci (QTL) analysis of the lack of operculum. A total of 142 individuals from a paternal half-sibling family (six full-sibling families) were selected for QTL mapping. They had previously shown a highly significant association with the prevalence of lack of operculum in a segregation analysis. All the fish were genotyped for 106 microsatellite markers using a set of multiplex PCRs (ReMsa1-ReMsa13). A linear regression methodology was used for the QTL analysis. Four QTL were detected for this deformity, two of which (QTLOP1 and QTLOP2) were significant. They were located at LG (linkage group) nine and LG10 respectively. Both QTL showed a large effect (about 27%), and furthermore, the association between lack of operculum and sire allelic segregation observed was statistically significant in the QTLOP1 analysis. These results represent a significant step towards including marker-assisted selection for this deformity in genetic breeding programmes to reduce the incidence of the deformity in the species. © 2016 Stichting International Foundation for Animal Genetics.

  10. [Review of research design and statistical methods in Chinese Journal of Cardiology].

    PubMed

    Zhang, Li-jun; Yu, Jin-ming

    2009-07-01

    To evaluate the research design and the use of statistical methods in Chinese Journal of Cardiology. Peer through the research design and statistical methods in all of the original papers in Chinese Journal of Cardiology from December 2007 to November 2008. The most frequently used research designs are cross-sectional design (34%), prospective design (21%) and experimental design (25%). In all of the articles, 49 (25%) use wrong statistical methods, 29 (15%) lack some sort of statistic analysis, 23 (12%) have inconsistencies in description of methods. There are significant differences between different statistical methods (P < 0.001). The correction rates of multifactor analysis were low and repeated measurement datas were not used repeated measurement analysis. Many problems exist in Chinese Journal of Cardiology. Better research design and correct use of statistical methods are still needed. More strict review by statistician and epidemiologist is also required to improve the literature qualities.

  11. 7 CFR 760.614 - Lack of access.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Lack of access. 760.614 Section 760.614 Agriculture... Lack of access. In addition to other provisions for eligibility provided for in this part, the Deputy Administrator may provide assistance to participants who suffered 2008 production losses that meet the lack of...

  12. Assessment and statistics of surgically induced astigmatism.

    PubMed

    Naeser, Kristian

    2008-05-01

    The aim of the thesis was to develop methods for assessment of surgically induced astigmatism (SIA) in individual eyes, and in groups of eyes. The thesis is based on 12 peer-reviewed publications, published over a period of 16 years. In these publications older and contemporary literature was reviewed(1). A new method (the polar system) for analysis of SIA was developed. Multivariate statistical analysis of refractive data was described(2-4). Clinical validation studies were performed. The description of a cylinder surface with polar values and differential geometry was compared. The main results were: refractive data in the form of sphere, cylinder and axis may define an individual patient or data set, but are unsuited for mathematical and statistical analyses(1). The polar value system converts net astigmatisms to orthonormal components in dioptric space. A polar value is the difference in meridional power between two orthogonal meridians(5,6). Any pair of polar values, separated by an arch of 45 degrees, characterizes a net astigmatism completely(7). The two polar values represent the net curvital and net torsional power over the chosen meridian(8). The spherical component is described by the spherical equivalent power. Several clinical studies demonstrated the efficiency of multivariate statistical analysis of refractive data(4,9-11). Polar values and formal differential geometry describe astigmatic surfaces with similar concepts and mathematical functions(8). Other contemporary methods, such as Long's power matrix, Holladay's and Alpins' methods, Zernike(12) and Fourier analyses(8), are correlated to the polar value system. In conclusion, analysis of SIA should be performed with polar values or other contemporary component systems. The study was supported by Statens Sundhedsvidenskabeligt Forskningsråd, Cykelhandler P. Th. Rasmussen og Hustrus Mindelegat, Hotelejer Carl Larsen og Hustru Nicoline Larsens Mindelegat, Landsforeningen til Vaern om Synet

  13. Craig's XY distribution and the statistics of Lagrangian power in two-dimensional turbulence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bandi, Mahesh M.; Connaughton, Colm

    2008-03-01

    We examine the probability distribution function (PDF) of the energy injection rate (power) in numerical simulations of stationary two-dimensional (2D) turbulence in the Lagrangian frame. The simulation is designed to mimic an electromagnetically driven fluid layer, a well-documented system for generating 2D turbulence in the laboratory. In our simulations, the forcing and velocity fields are close to Gaussian. On the other hand, the measured PDF of injected power is very sharply peaked at zero, suggestive of a singularity there, with tails which are exponential but asymmetric. Large positive fluctuations are more probable than large negative fluctuations. It is this asymmetry of the tails which leads to a net positive mean value for the energy input despite the most probable value being zero. The main features of the power distribution are well described by Craig’s XY distribution for the PDF of the product of two correlated normal variables. We show that the power distribution should exhibit a logarithmic singularity at zero and decay exponentially for large absolute values of the power. We calculate the asymptotic behavior and express the asymmetry of the tails in terms of the correlation coefficient of the force and velocity. We compare the measured PDFs with the theoretical calculations and briefly discuss how the power PDF might change with other forcing mechanisms.

  14. Craig's XY distribution and the statistics of Lagrangian power in two-dimensional turbulence.

    PubMed

    Bandi, Mahesh M; Connaughton, Colm

    2008-03-01

    We examine the probability distribution function (PDF) of the energy injection rate (power) in numerical simulations of stationary two-dimensional (2D) turbulence in the Lagrangian frame. The simulation is designed to mimic an electromagnetically driven fluid layer, a well-documented system for generating 2D turbulence in the laboratory. In our simulations, the forcing and velocity fields are close to Gaussian. On the other hand, the measured PDF of injected power is very sharply peaked at zero, suggestive of a singularity there, with tails which are exponential but asymmetric. Large positive fluctuations are more probable than large negative fluctuations. It is this asymmetry of the tails which leads to a net positive mean value for the energy input despite the most probable value being zero. The main features of the power distribution are well described by Craig's XY distribution for the PDF of the product of two correlated normal variables. We show that the power distribution should exhibit a logarithmic singularity at zero and decay exponentially for large absolute values of the power. We calculate the asymptotic behavior and express the asymmetry of the tails in terms of the correlation coefficient of the force and velocity. We compare the measured PDFs with the theoretical calculations and briefly discuss how the power PDF might change with other forcing mechanisms.

  15. A novel variational Bayes multiple locus Z-statistic for genome-wide association studies with Bayesian model averaging

    PubMed Central

    Logsdon, Benjamin A.; Carty, Cara L.; Reiner, Alexander P.; Dai, James Y.; Kooperberg, Charles

    2012-01-01

    Motivation: For many complex traits, including height, the majority of variants identified by genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have small effects, leaving a significant proportion of the heritable variation unexplained. Although many penalized multiple regression methodologies have been proposed to increase the power to detect associations for complex genetic architectures, they generally lack mechanisms for false-positive control and diagnostics for model over-fitting. Our methodology is the first penalized multiple regression approach that explicitly controls Type I error rates and provide model over-fitting diagnostics through a novel normally distributed statistic defined for every marker within the GWAS, based on results from a variational Bayes spike regression algorithm. Results: We compare the performance of our method to the lasso and single marker analysis on simulated data and demonstrate that our approach has superior performance in terms of power and Type I error control. In addition, using the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) SNP Health Association Resource (SHARe) GWAS of African-Americans, we show that our method has power to detect additional novel associations with body height. These findings replicate by reaching a stringent cutoff of marginal association in a larger cohort. Availability: An R-package, including an implementation of our variational Bayes spike regression (vBsr) algorithm, is available at http://kooperberg.fhcrc.org/soft.html. Contact: blogsdon@fhcrc.org Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. PMID:22563072

  16. Statistical scaling of pore-scale Lagrangian velocities in natural porous media.

    PubMed

    Siena, M; Guadagnini, A; Riva, M; Bijeljic, B; Pereira Nunes, J P; Blunt, M J

    2014-08-01

    We investigate the scaling behavior of sample statistics of pore-scale Lagrangian velocities in two different rock samples, Bentheimer sandstone and Estaillades limestone. The samples are imaged using x-ray computer tomography with micron-scale resolution. The scaling analysis relies on the study of the way qth-order sample structure functions (statistical moments of order q of absolute increments) of Lagrangian velocities depend on separation distances, or lags, traveled along the mean flow direction. In the sandstone block, sample structure functions of all orders exhibit a power-law scaling within a clearly identifiable intermediate range of lags. Sample structure functions associated with the limestone block display two diverse power-law regimes, which we infer to be related to two overlapping spatially correlated structures. In both rocks and for all orders q, we observe linear relationships between logarithmic structure functions of successive orders at all lags (a phenomenon that is typically known as extended power scaling, or extended self-similarity). The scaling behavior of Lagrangian velocities is compared with the one exhibited by porosity and specific surface area, which constitute two key pore-scale geometric observables. The statistical scaling of the local velocity field reflects the behavior of these geometric observables, with the occurrence of power-law-scaling regimes within the same range of lags for sample structure functions of Lagrangian velocity, porosity, and specific surface area.

  17. Wind Power Ramping Product for Increasing Power System Flexibility

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Cui, Mingjian; Zhang, Jie; Wu, Hongyu

    With increasing penetrations of wind power, system operators are concerned about a potential lack of system flexibility and ramping capacity in real-time dispatch stages. In this paper, a modified dispatch formulation is proposed considering the wind power ramping product (WPRP). A swinging door algorithm (SDA) and dynamic programming are combined and used to detect WPRPs in the next scheduling periods. The detected WPRPs are included in the unit commitment (UC) formulation considering ramping capacity limits, active power limits, and flexible ramping requirements. The modified formulation is solved by mixed integer linear programming. Numerical simulations on a modified PJM 5-bus Systemmore » show the effectiveness of the model considering WPRP, which not only reduces the production cost but also does not affect the generation schedules of thermal units.« less

  18. Statistical Power for the Comparative Regression Discontinuity Design With a Pretest No-Treatment Control Function: Theory and Evidence From the National Head Start Impact Study.

    PubMed

    Tang, Yang; Cook, Thomas D

    2018-01-01

    The basic regression discontinuity design (RDD) has less statistical power than a randomized control trial (RCT) with the same sample size. Adding a no-treatment comparison function to the basic RDD creates a comparative RDD (CRD); and when this function comes from the pretest value of the study outcome, a CRD-Pre design results. We use a within-study comparison (WSC) to examine the power of CRD-Pre relative to both basic RDD and RCT. We first build the theoretical foundation for power in CRD-Pre, then derive the relevant variance formulae, and finally compare them to the theoretical RCT variance. We conclude from this theoretical part of this article that (1) CRD-Pre's power gain depends on the partial correlation between the pretest and posttest measures after conditioning on the assignment variable, (2) CRD-Pre is less responsive than basic RDD to how the assignment variable is distributed and where the cutoff is located, and (3) under a variety of conditions, the efficiency of CRD-Pre is very close to that of the RCT. Data from the National Head Start Impact Study are then used to construct RCT, RDD, and CRD-Pre designs and to compare their power. The empirical results indicate (1) a high level of correspondence between the predicted and obtained power results for RDD and CRD-Pre relative to the RCT, and (2) power levels in CRD-Pre and RCT that are very close. The study is unique among WSCs for its focus on the correspondence between RCT and observational study standard errors rather than means.

  19. The Precision-Power-Gradient Theory for Teaching Basic Research Statistical Tools to Graduate Students.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cassel, Russell N.

    This paper relates educational and psychological statistics to certain "Research Statistical Tools" (RSTs) necessary to accomplish and understand general research in the behavioral sciences. Emphasis is placed on acquiring an effective understanding of the RSTs and to this end they are are ordered to a continuum scale in terms of individual…

  20. Principles of Statistics: What the Sports Medicine Professional Needs to Know.

    PubMed

    Riemann, Bryan L; Lininger, Monica R

    2018-07-01

    Understanding the results and statistics reported in original research remains a large challenge for many sports medicine practitioners and, in turn, may be among one of the biggest barriers to integrating research into sports medicine practice. The purpose of this article is to provide minimal essentials a sports medicine practitioner needs to know about interpreting statistics and research results to facilitate the incorporation of the latest evidence into practice. Topics covered include the difference between statistical significance and clinical meaningfulness; effect sizes and confidence intervals; reliability statistics, including the minimal detectable difference and minimal important difference; and statistical power. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. An On-Line Virtual Environment for Teaching Statistical Sampling and Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Marsh, Michael T.

    2009-01-01

    Regardless of the related discipline, students in statistics courses invariably have difficulty understanding the connection between the numerical values calculated for end-of-the-chapter exercises and their usefulness in decision making. This disconnect is, in part, due to the lack of time and opportunity to actually design the experiments and…

  2. [The application of the prospective space-time statistic in early warning of infectious disease].

    PubMed

    Yin, Fei; Li, Xiao-Song; Feng, Zi-Jian; Ma, Jia-Qi

    2007-06-01

    To investigate the application of prospective space-time scan statistic in the early stage of detecting infectious disease outbreaks. The prospective space-time scan statistic was tested by mimicking daily prospective analyses of bacillary dysentery data of Chengdu city in 2005 (3212 cases in 102 towns and villages). And the results were compared with that of purely temporal scan statistic. The prospective space-time scan statistic could give specific messages both in spatial and temporal. The results of June indicated that the prospective space-time scan statistic could timely detect the outbreaks that started from the local site, and the early warning message was powerful (P = 0.007). When the merely temporal scan statistic for detecting the outbreak was sent two days later, and the signal was less powerful (P = 0.039). The prospective space-time scan statistic could make full use of the spatial and temporal information in infectious disease data and could timely and effectively detect the outbreaks that start from the local sites. The prospective space-time scan statistic could be an important tool for local and national CDC to set up early detection surveillance systems.

  3. A robust power spectrum split cancellation-based spectrum sensing method for cognitive radio systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qi, Pei-Han; Li, Zan; Si, Jiang-Bo; Gao, Rui

    2014-12-01

    Spectrum sensing is an essential component to realize the cognitive radio, and the requirement for real-time spectrum sensing in the case of lacking prior information, fading channel, and noise uncertainty, indeed poses a major challenge to the classical spectrum sensing algorithms. Based on the stochastic properties of scalar transformation of power spectral density (PSD), a novel spectrum sensing algorithm, referred to as the power spectral density split cancellation method (PSC), is proposed in this paper. The PSC makes use of a scalar value as a test statistic, which is the ratio of each subband power to the full band power. Besides, by exploiting the asymptotic normality and independence of Fourier transform, the distribution of the ratio and the mathematical expressions for the probabilities of false alarm and detection in different channel models are derived. Further, the exact closed-form expression of decision threshold is calculated in accordance with Neyman—Pearson criterion. Analytical and simulation results show that the PSC is invulnerable to noise uncertainty, and can achive excellent detection performance without prior knowledge in additive white Gaussian noise and flat slow fading channels. In addition, the PSC benefits from a low computational cost, which can be completed in microseconds.

  4. Quality of statistical reporting in developmental disability journals.

    PubMed

    Namasivayam, Aravind K; Yan, Tina; Wong, Wing Yiu Stephanie; van Lieshout, Pascal

    2015-12-01

    Null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) dominates quantitative data analysis, but its use is controversial and has been heavily criticized. The American Psychological Association has advocated the reporting of effect sizes (ES), confidence intervals (CIs), and statistical power analysis to complement NHST results to provide a more comprehensive understanding of research findings. The aim of this paper is to carry out a sample survey of statistical reporting practices in two journals with the highest h5-index scores in the areas of developmental disability and rehabilitation. Using a checklist that includes critical recommendations by American Psychological Association, we examined 100 randomly selected articles out of 456 articles reporting inferential statistics in the year 2013 in the Journal of Autism and Developmental Disorders (JADD) and Research in Developmental Disabilities (RDD). The results showed that for both journals, ES were reported only half the time (JADD 59.3%; RDD 55.87%). These findings are similar to psychology journals, but are in stark contrast to ES reporting in educational journals (73%). Furthermore, a priori power and sample size determination (JADD 10%; RDD 6%), along with reporting and interpreting precision measures (CI: JADD 13.33%; RDD 16.67%), were the least reported metrics in these journals, but not dissimilar to journals in other disciplines. To advance the science in developmental disability and rehabilitation and to bridge the research-to-practice divide, reforms in statistical reporting, such as providing supplemental measures to NHST, are clearly needed.

  5. Output statistics of laser anemometers in sparsely seeded flows

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Edwards, R. V.; Jensen, A. S.

    1982-01-01

    It is noted that until very recently, research on this topic concentrated on the particle arrival statistics and the influence of the optical parameters on them. Little attention has been paid to the influence of subsequent processing on the measurement statistics. There is also controversy over whether the effects of the particle statistics can be measured. It is shown here that some of the confusion derives from a lack of understanding of the experimental parameters that are to be controlled or known. A rigorous framework is presented for examining the measurement statistics of such systems. To provide examples, two problems are then addressed. The first has to do with a sample and hold processor, the second with what is called a saturable processor. The sample and hold processor converts the output to a continuous signal by holding the last reading until a new one is obtained. The saturable system is one where the maximum processable rate is arrived at by the dead time of some unit in the system. At high particle rates, the processed rate is determined through the dead time.

  6. Modeling and replicating statistical topology and evidence for CMB nonhomogeneity

    PubMed Central

    Agami, Sarit

    2017-01-01

    Under the banner of “big data,” the detection and classification of structure in extremely large, high-dimensional, data sets are two of the central statistical challenges of our times. Among the most intriguing new approaches to this challenge is “TDA,” or “topological data analysis,” one of the primary aims of which is providing nonmetric, but topologically informative, preanalyses of data which make later, more quantitative, analyses feasible. While TDA rests on strong mathematical foundations from topology, in applications, it has faced challenges due to difficulties in handling issues of statistical reliability and robustness, often leading to an inability to make scientific claims with verifiable levels of statistical confidence. We propose a methodology for the parametric representation, estimation, and replication of persistence diagrams, the main diagnostic tool of TDA. The power of the methodology lies in the fact that even if only one persistence diagram is available for analysis—the typical case for big data applications—the replications permit conventional statistical hypothesis testing. The methodology is conceptually simple and computationally practical, and provides a broadly effective statistical framework for persistence diagram TDA analysis. We demonstrate the basic ideas on a toy example, and the power of the parametric approach to TDA modeling in an analysis of cosmic microwave background (CMB) nonhomogeneity. PMID:29078301

  7. Infants' statistical learning: 2- and 5-month-olds' segmentation of continuous visual sequences.

    PubMed

    Slone, Lauren Krogh; Johnson, Scott P

    2015-05-01

    Past research suggests that infants have powerful statistical learning abilities; however, studies of infants' visual statistical learning offer differing accounts of the developmental trajectory of and constraints on this learning. To elucidate this issue, the current study tested the hypothesis that young infants' segmentation of visual sequences depends on redundant statistical cues to segmentation. A sample of 20 2-month-olds and 20 5-month-olds observed a continuous sequence of looming shapes in which unit boundaries were defined by both transitional probability and co-occurrence frequency. Following habituation, only 5-month-olds showed evidence of statistically segmenting the sequence, looking longer to a statistically improbable shape pair than to a probable pair. These results reaffirm the power of statistical learning in infants as young as 5 months but also suggest considerable development of statistical segmentation ability between 2 and 5 months of age. Moreover, the results do not support the idea that infants' ability to segment visual sequences based on transitional probabilities and/or co-occurrence frequencies is functional at the onset of visual experience, as has been suggested previously. Rather, this type of statistical segmentation appears to be constrained by the developmental state of the learner. Factors contributing to the development of statistical segmentation ability during early infancy, including memory and attention, are discussed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Non-gaussian statistics of pencil beam surveys

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Amendola, Luca

    1994-01-01

    We study the effect of the non-Gaussian clustering of galaxies on the statistics of pencil beam surveys. We derive the probability from the power spectrum peaks by means of Edgeworth expansion and find that the higher order moments of the galaxy distribution play a dominant role. The probability of obtaining the 128 Mpc/h periodicity found in pencil beam surveys is raised by more than one order of magnitude, up to 1%. Further data are needed to decide if non-Gaussian distribution alone is sufficient to explain the 128 Mpc/h periodicity, or if extra large-scale power is necessary.

  9. Degree-based statistic and center persistency for brain connectivity analysis.

    PubMed

    Yoo, Kwangsun; Lee, Peter; Chung, Moo K; Sohn, William S; Chung, Sun Ju; Na, Duk L; Ju, Daheen; Jeong, Yong

    2017-01-01

    Brain connectivity analyses have been widely performed to investigate the organization and functioning of the brain, or to observe changes in neurological or psychiatric conditions. However, connectivity analysis inevitably introduces the problem of mass-univariate hypothesis testing. Although, several cluster-wise correction methods have been suggested to address this problem and shown to provide high sensitivity, these approaches fundamentally have two drawbacks: the lack of spatial specificity (localization power) and the arbitrariness of an initial cluster-forming threshold. In this study, we propose a novel method, degree-based statistic (DBS), performing cluster-wise inference. DBS is designed to overcome the above-mentioned two shortcomings. From a network perspective, a few brain regions are of critical importance and considered to play pivotal roles in network integration. Regarding this notion, DBS defines a cluster as a set of edges of which one ending node is shared. This definition enables the efficient detection of clusters and their center nodes. Furthermore, a new measure of a cluster, center persistency (CP) was introduced. The efficiency of DBS with a known "ground truth" simulation was demonstrated. Then they applied DBS to two experimental datasets and showed that DBS successfully detects the persistent clusters. In conclusion, by adopting a graph theoretical concept of degrees and borrowing the concept of persistence from algebraic topology, DBS could sensitively identify clusters with centric nodes that would play pivotal roles in an effect of interest. DBS is potentially widely applicable to variable cognitive or clinical situations and allows us to obtain statistically reliable and easily interpretable results. Hum Brain Mapp 38:165-181, 2017. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  10. Statistical issues on the analysis of change in follow-up studies in dental research.

    PubMed

    Blance, Andrew; Tu, Yu-Kang; Baelum, Vibeke; Gilthorpe, Mark S

    2007-12-01

    To provide an overview to the problems in study design and associated analyses of follow-up studies in dental research, particularly addressing three issues: treatment-baselineinteractions; statistical power; and nonrandomization. Our previous work has shown that many studies purport an interacion between change (from baseline) and baseline values, which is often based on inappropriate statistical analyses. A priori power calculations are essential for randomized controlled trials (RCTs), but in the pre-test/post-test RCT design it is not well known to dental researchers that the choice of statistical method affects power, and that power is affected by treatment-baseline interactions. A common (good) practice in the analysis of RCT data is to adjust for baseline outcome values using ancova, thereby increasing statistical power. However, an important requirement for ancova is there to be no interaction between the groups and baseline outcome (i.e. effective randomization); the patient-selection process should not cause differences in mean baseline values across groups. This assumption is often violated for nonrandomized (observational) studies and the use of ancova is thus problematic, potentially giving biased estimates, invoking Lord's paradox and leading to difficulties in the interpretation of results. Baseline interaction issues can be overcome by use of statistical methods; not widely practiced in dental research: Oldham's method and multilevel modelling; the latter is preferred for its greater flexibility to deal with more than one follow-up occasion as well as additional covariates To illustrate these three key issues, hypothetical examples are considered from the fields of periodontology, orthodontics, and oral implantology. Caution needs to be exercised when considering the design and analysis of follow-up studies. ancova is generally inappropriate for nonrandomized studies and causal inferences from observational data should be avoided.

  11. Universal statistics of the knockout tournament

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baek, Seung Ki; Yi, Il Gu; Park, Hye Jin; Kim, Beom Jun

    2013-11-01

    We study statistics of the knockout tournament, where only the winner of a fixture progresses to the next. We assign a real number called competitiveness to each contestant and find that the resulting distribution of prize money follows a power law with an exponent close to unity if the competitiveness is a stable quantity and a decisive factor to win a match. Otherwise, the distribution is found narrow. The existing observation of power law distributions in various kinds of real sports tournaments therefore suggests that the rules of those games are constructed in such a way that it is possible to understand the games in terms of the contestants' inherent characteristics of competitiveness.

  12. Universal statistics of the knockout tournament

    PubMed Central

    Baek, Seung Ki; Yi, Il Gu; Park, Hye Jin; Kim, Beom Jun

    2013-01-01

    We study statistics of the knockout tournament, where only the winner of a fixture progresses to the next. We assign a real number called competitiveness to each contestant and find that the resulting distribution of prize money follows a power law with an exponent close to unity if the competitiveness is a stable quantity and a decisive factor to win a match. Otherwise, the distribution is found narrow. The existing observation of power law distributions in various kinds of real sports tournaments therefore suggests that the rules of those games are constructed in such a way that it is possible to understand the games in terms of the contestants' inherent characteristics of competitiveness. PMID:24217406

  13. A statistical model of aggregate fragmentation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spahn, F.; Vieira Neto, E.; Guimarães, A. H. F.; Gorban, A. N.; Brilliantov, N. V.

    2014-01-01

    A statistical model of fragmentation of aggregates is proposed, based on the stochastic propagation of cracks through the body. The propagation rules are formulated on a lattice and mimic two important features of the process—a crack moves against the stress gradient while dissipating energy during its growth. We perform numerical simulations of the model for two-dimensional lattice and reveal that the mass distribution for small- and intermediate-size fragments obeys a power law, F(m)∝m-3/2, in agreement with experimental observations. We develop an analytical theory which explains the detected power law and demonstrate that the overall fragment mass distribution in our model agrees qualitatively with that one observed in experiments.

  14. Statistical power to detect change in a mangrove shoreline fish community adjacent to a nuclear power plant.

    PubMed

    Dolan, T E; Lynch, P D; Karazsia, J L; Serafy, J E

    2016-03-01

    An expansion is underway of a nuclear power plant on the shoreline of Biscayne Bay, Florida, USA. While the precise effects of its construction and operation are unknown, impacts on surrounding marine habitats and biota are considered by experts to be likely. The objective of the present study was to determine the adequacy of an ongoing monitoring survey of fish communities associated with mangrove habitats directly adjacent to the power plant to detect fish community changes, should they occur, at three spatial scales. Using seasonally resolved data recorded during 532 fish surveys over an 8-year period, power analyses were performed for four mangrove fish metrics (fish diversity, fish density, and the occurrence of two ecologically important fish species: gray snapper (Lutjanus griseus) and goldspotted killifish (Floridichthys carpio). Results indicated that the monitoring program at current sampling intensity allows for detection of <33% changes in fish density and diversity metrics in both the wet and the dry season in the two larger study areas. Sampling effort was found to be insufficient in either season to detect changes at this level (<33%) in species-specific occurrence metrics for the two fish species examined. The option of supplementing ongoing, biological monitoring programs for improved, focused change detection deserves consideration from both ecological and cost-benefit perspectives.

  15. Construction of cosmic string induced temperature anisotropy maps with CMBFAST and statistical analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Simatos, N.; Perivolaropoulos, L.

    2001-01-01

    We use the publicly available code CMBFAST, as modified by Pogosian and Vachaspati, to simulate the effects of wiggly cosmic strings on the cosmic microwave background (CMB). Using the modified CMBFAST code, which takes into account vector modes and models wiggly cosmic strings by the one-scale model, we go beyond the angular power spectrum to construct CMB temperature maps with a resolution of a few degrees. The statistics of these maps are then studied using conventional and recently proposed statistical tests optimized for the detection of hidden temperature discontinuities induced by the Gott-Kaiser-Stebbins effect. We show, however, that these realistic maps cannot be distinguished in a statistically significant way from purely Gaussian maps with an identical power spectrum.

  16. System Study: Emergency Power System 1998-2014

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Schroeder, John Alton

    2015-12-01

    This report presents an unreliability evaluation of the emergency power system (EPS) at 104 U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. Demand, run hours, and failure data from fiscal year 1998 through 2014 for selected components were obtained from the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) Consolidated Events Database (ICES). The unreliability results are trended for the most recent 10 year period while yearly estimates for system unreliability are provided for the entire active period. An extremely statistically significant increasing trend was observed for EPS system unreliability for an 8-hour mission. A statistically significant increasing trend was observed for EPS system start-onlymore » unreliability.« less

  17. Lack of Energy and Negative Health-Related Outcomes in Nursing Home Residents: Results From the INCUR Study.

    PubMed

    Zengarini, Elisa; Hoogendijk, Emiel O; Pérez-Zepeda, Mario U; Ruggiero, Carmelinda; Mecocci, Patrizia; Vellas, Bruno; Cesari, Matteo

    2016-06-01

    "Lack of energy" or anergia is a common complaint associated with adverse outcomes in older people. There is a lack of knowledge on this symptom in the nursing home (NH) setting. The aim of this study was to investigate whether lack of energy was associated with hospitalization and mortality in NH residents. Longitudinal observational cohort study. A total of 575 NH residents (72% women) in 13 French NHs from the Incidence of pNeumonia and related ConseqUences in nursing home Residents (INCUR) study cohort. Lack of energy was measured at the baseline visit as part of the 10-item Geriatric Depression Scale. Unadjusted and adjusted Cox proportional hazard regression models were performed to test the association of lack of energy with hospitalization events and mortality over 12 months of follow-up. The mean age of the study sample was 86.3 (SD = 7.5) years. At the baseline, 250 (43.5%) residents complained about lack of energy. Overall, 192 (33.4%) individuals experienced at least 1 hospitalization event and 98 (17.0%) died during the 12-month follow-up. Lack of energy was significantly associated with a higher risk of hospitalization (HR 1.35; 95% CI 1.02-1.80; P = .03), even after adjustment for potential confounders (HR 1.41; 95% CI 1.04-1.91; P = .02). No statistically significant association was found between lack of energy and 12-month mortality. Lack of energy is a predictor of hospitalization in older people living in NHs. It may be considered a relevant clinical feature for identifying individuals at risk of adverse health outcomes, thus potentially serving as a screening tool for subsequently conducting a comprehensive geriatric assessment in this highly vulnerable and complex population. Copyright © 2016 AMDA – The Society for Post-Acute and Long-Term Care Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Eye Colour and Reaction Time: An Opportunity for Critical Statistical Reasoning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Watson, Jane

    2008-01-01

    This author was surprised to read a short article in "The Mercury" newspaper in Hobart about blue-eyed people being more intelligent and brown-eyed people having faster reaction times. Such an article invites immediate scepticism from the statistically literate. The lack of data in the article should lead the interested reader to a…

  19. The power prior: theory and applications.

    PubMed

    Ibrahim, Joseph G; Chen, Ming-Hui; Gwon, Yeongjin; Chen, Fang

    2015-12-10

    The power prior has been widely used in many applications covering a large number of disciplines. The power prior is intended to be an informative prior constructed from historical data. It has been used in clinical trials, genetics, health care, psychology, environmental health, engineering, economics, and business. It has also been applied for a wide variety of models and settings, both in the experimental design and analysis contexts. In this review article, we give an A-to-Z exposition of the power prior and its applications to date. We review its theoretical properties, variations in its formulation, statistical contexts for which it has been used, applications, and its advantages over other informative priors. We review models for which it has been used, including generalized linear models, survival models, and random effects models. Statistical areas where the power prior has been used include model selection, experimental design, hierarchical modeling, and conjugate priors. Frequentist properties of power priors in posterior inference are established, and a simulation study is conducted to further examine the empirical performance of the posterior estimates with power priors. Real data analyses are given illustrating the power prior as well as the use of the power prior in the Bayesian design of clinical trials. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  20. The Power Prior: Theory and Applications

    PubMed Central

    Ibrahim, Joseph G.; Chen, Ming-Hui; Gwon, Yeongjin; Chen, Fang

    2015-01-01

    The power prior has been widely used in many applications covering a large number of disciplines. The power prior is intended to be an informative prior constructed from historical data. It has been used in clinical trials, genetics, health care, psychology, environmental health, engineering, economics, and business. It has also been applied for a wide variety of models and settings, both in the experimental design and analysis contexts. In this review article, we give an A to Z exposition of the power prior and its applications to date. We review its theoretical properties, variations in its formulation, statistical contexts for which it has been used, applications, and its advantages over other informative priors. We review models for which it has been used, including generalized linear models, survival models, and random effects models. Statistical areas where the power prior has been used include model selection, experimental design, hierarchical modeling, and conjugate priors. Prequentist properties of power priors in posterior inference are established and a simulation study is conducted to further examine the empirical performance of the posterior estimates with power priors. Real data analyses are given illustrating the power prior as well as the use of the power prior in the Bayesian design of clinical trials. PMID:26346180

  1. The power of 41%: A glimpse into the life of a statistic.

    PubMed

    Tanis, Justin

    2016-01-01

    "Forty-one percent?" the man said with anguish on his face as he addressed the author, clutching my handout. "We're talking about my granddaughter here." He was referring to the finding from the National Transgender Discrimination Survey (NTDS) that 41% of 6,450 respondents said they had attempted suicide at some point in their lives. The author had passed out the executive summary of the survey's findings during a panel discussion at a family conference to illustrate the critical importance of acceptance of transgender people. During the question and answer period, this gentleman rose to talk about his beloved 8-year-old granddaughter who was in the process of transitioning socially from male to female in her elementary school. The statistics that the author was citing were not just numbers to him; and he wanted strategies-effective ones-to keep his granddaughter alive and thriving. The author has observed that the statistic about suicide attempts has, in essence, developed a life of its own. It has had several key audiences-academics and researchers, public policymakers, and members of the community, particularly transgender people and our families. This article explores some of the key takeaways from the survey and the ways in which the 41% statistic has affected conversations about the injustices transgender people face and the importance of family and societal acceptance. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  2. Explanation of Two Anomalous Results in Statistical Mediation Analysis.

    PubMed

    Fritz, Matthew S; Taylor, Aaron B; Mackinnon, David P

    2012-01-01

    Previous studies of different methods of testing mediation models have consistently found two anomalous results. The first result is elevated Type I error rates for the bias-corrected and accelerated bias-corrected bootstrap tests not found in nonresampling tests or in resampling tests that did not include a bias correction. This is of special concern as the bias-corrected bootstrap is often recommended and used due to its higher statistical power compared with other tests. The second result is statistical power reaching an asymptote far below 1.0 and in some conditions even declining slightly as the size of the relationship between X and M , a , increased. Two computer simulations were conducted to examine these findings in greater detail. Results from the first simulation found that the increased Type I error rates for the bias-corrected and accelerated bias-corrected bootstrap are a function of an interaction between the size of the individual paths making up the mediated effect and the sample size, such that elevated Type I error rates occur when the sample size is small and the effect size of the nonzero path is medium or larger. Results from the second simulation found that stagnation and decreases in statistical power as a function of the effect size of the a path occurred primarily when the path between M and Y , b , was small. Two empirical mediation examples are provided using data from a steroid prevention and health promotion program aimed at high school football players (Athletes Training and Learning to Avoid Steroids; Goldberg et al., 1996), one to illustrate a possible Type I error for the bias-corrected bootstrap test and a second to illustrate a loss in power related to the size of a . Implications of these findings are discussed.

  3. Statistical characteristics of MST radar echoes and its interpretation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Woodman, Ronald F.

    1989-01-01

    Two concepts of fundamental importance are reviewed: the autocorrelation function and the frequency power spectrum. In addition, some turbulence concepts, the relationship between radar signals and atmospheric medium statistics, partial reflection, and the characteristics of noise and clutter interference are discussed.

  4. An Exercise to Introduce Power

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Seier, Edith; Liu, Yali

    2013-01-01

    In introductory statistics courses, the concept of power is usually presented in the context of testing hypotheses about the population mean. We instead propose an exercise that uses a binomial probability table to introduce the idea of power in the context of testing a population proportion. (Contains 2 tables, and 2 figures.)

  5. Lack of grading agreement among international hemostasis external quality assessment programs

    PubMed Central

    Olson, John D.; Jennings, Ian; Meijer, Piet; Bon, Chantal; Bonar, Roslyn; Favaloro, Emmanuel J.; Higgins, Russell A.; Keeney, Michael; Mammen, Joy; Marlar, Richard A.; Meley, Roland; Nair, Sukesh C.; Nichols, William L.; Raby, Anne; Reverter, Joan C.; Srivastava, Alok; Walker, Isobel

    2018-01-01

    Laboratory quality programs rely on internal quality control and external quality assessment (EQA). EQA programs provide unknown specimens for the laboratory to test. The laboratory's result is compared with other (peer) laboratories performing the same test. EQA programs assign target values using a variety of methods statistical tools and performance assessment of ‘pass’ or ‘fail’ is made. EQA provider members of the international organization, external quality assurance in thrombosis and hemostasis, took part in a study to compare outcome of performance analysis using the same data set of laboratory results. Eleven EQA organizations using eight different analytical approaches participated. Data for a normal and prolonged activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT) and a normal and reduced factor VIII (FVIII) from 218 laboratories were sent to the EQA providers who analyzed the data set using their method of evaluation for aPTT and FVIII, determining the performance for each laboratory record in the data set. Providers also summarized their statistical approach to assignment of target values and laboratory performance. Each laboratory record in the data set was graded pass/fail by all EQA providers for each of the four analytes. There was a lack of agreement of pass/fail grading among EQA programs. Discordance in the grading was 17.9 and 11% of normal and prolonged aPTT results, respectively, and 20.2 and 17.4% of normal and reduced FVIII results, respectively. All EQA programs in this study employed statistical methods compliant with the International Standardization Organization (ISO), ISO 13528, yet the evaluation of laboratory results for all four analytes showed remarkable grading discordance. PMID:29232255

  6. Discriminatory power of water polo game-related statistics at the 2008 Olympic Games.

    PubMed

    Escalante, Yolanda; Saavedra, Jose M; Mansilla, Mirella; Tella, Victor

    2011-02-01

    The aims of this study were (1) to compare water polo game-related statistics by context (winning and losing teams) and sex (men and women), and (2) to identify characteristics discriminating the performances for each sex. The game-related statistics of the 64 matches (44 men's and 20 women's) played in the final phase of the Olympic Games held in Beijing in 2008 were analysed. Unpaired t-tests compared winners and losers and men and women, and confidence intervals and effect sizes of the differences were calculated. The results were subjected to a discriminant analysis to identify the differentiating game-related statistics of the winning and losing teams. The results showed the differences between winning and losing men's teams to be in both defence and offence, whereas in women's teams they were only in offence. In men's games, passing (assists), aggressive play (exclusions), centre position effectiveness (centre shots), and goalkeeper defence (goalkeeper-blocked 5-m shots) predominated, whereas in women's games the play was more dynamic (possessions). The variable that most discriminated performance in men was goalkeeper-blocked shots, and in women shooting effectiveness (shots). These results should help coaches when planning training and competition.

  7. Evaluation of statistical protocols for quality control of ecosystem carbon dioxide fluxes

    Treesearch

    Jorge F. Perez-Quezada; Nicanor Z. Saliendra; William E. Emmerich; Emilio A. Laca

    2007-01-01

    The process of quality control of micrometeorological and carbon dioxide (CO2) flux data can be subjective and may lack repeatability, which would undermine the results of many studies. Multivariate statistical methods and time series analysis were used together and independently to detect and replace outliers in CO2 flux...

  8. Primary-Side Power Flow Control of Wireless Power Transfer for Electric Vehicle Charging

    DOE PAGES

    Miller, John M.; Onar, Omer C.; Chinthavali, Madhu

    2014-12-22

    Various noncontacting methods of plug-in electric vehicle charging are either under development or now deployed as aftermarket options in the light-duty automotive market. Wireless power transfer (WPT) is now the accepted term for wireless charging and is used synonymously for inductive power transfer and magnetic resonance coupling. WPT technology is in its infancy; standardization is lacking, especially on interoperability, center frequency selection, magnetic fringe field suppression, and the methods employed for power flow regulation. This paper proposes a new analysis concept for power flow in WPT in which the primary provides frequency selection and the tuned secondary, with its resemblancemore » to a power transmission network having a reactive power voltage control, is analyzed as a transmission network. Analysis is supported with experimental data taken from Oak Ridge National Laboratory s WPT apparatus. Lastly, this paper also provides an experimental evidence for frequency selection, fringe field assessment, and the need for low-latency communications in the feedback path.« less

  9. Statistical methods to estimate treatment effects from multichannel electroencephalography (EEG) data in clinical trials.

    PubMed

    Ma, Junshui; Wang, Shubing; Raubertas, Richard; Svetnik, Vladimir

    2010-07-15

    With the increasing popularity of using electroencephalography (EEG) to reveal the treatment effect in drug development clinical trials, the vast volume and complex nature of EEG data compose an intriguing, but challenging, topic. In this paper the statistical analysis methods recommended by the EEG community, along with methods frequently used in the published literature, are first reviewed. A straightforward adjustment of the existing methods to handle multichannel EEG data is then introduced. In addition, based on the spatial smoothness property of EEG data, a new category of statistical methods is proposed. The new methods use a linear combination of low-degree spherical harmonic (SPHARM) basis functions to represent a spatially smoothed version of the EEG data on the scalp, which is close to a sphere in shape. In total, seven statistical methods, including both the existing and the newly proposed methods, are applied to two clinical datasets to compare their power to detect a drug effect. Contrary to the EEG community's recommendation, our results suggest that (1) the nonparametric method does not outperform its parametric counterpart; and (2) including baseline data in the analysis does not always improve the statistical power. In addition, our results recommend that (3) simple paired statistical tests should be avoided due to their poor power; and (4) the proposed spatially smoothed methods perform better than their unsmoothed versions. Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Testing statistical isotropy in cosmic microwave background polarization maps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rath, Pranati K.; Samal, Pramoda Kumar; Panda, Srikanta; Mishra, Debesh D.; Aluri, Pavan K.

    2018-04-01

    We apply our symmetry based Power tensor technique to test conformity of PLANCK Polarization maps with statistical isotropy. On a wide range of angular scales (l = 40 - 150), our preliminary analysis detects many statistically anisotropic multipoles in foreground cleaned full sky PLANCK polarization maps viz., COMMANDER and NILC. We also study the effect of residual foregrounds that may still be present in the Galactic plane using both common UPB77 polarization mask, as well as the individual component separation method specific polarization masks. However, some of the statistically anisotropic modes still persist, albeit significantly in NILC map. We further probed the data for any coherent alignments across multipoles in several bins from the chosen multipole range.

  11. Reporting of Numerical and Statistical Differences in Abstracts

    PubMed Central

    Dryver, Eric; Hux, Janet E

    2002-01-01

    OBJECTIVE The reporting of relative risk reductions (RRRs) or absolute risk reductions (ARRs) to quantify binary outcomes in trials engenders differing perceptions of therapeutic efficacy, and the merits of P values versus confidence intervals (CIs) are also controversial. We describe the manner in which numerical and statistical difference in treatment outcomes is presented in published abstracts. DESIGN A descriptive study of abstracts published in 1986 and 1996 in 8 general medical and specialty journals. Inclusion criteria: controlled, intervention trials with a binary primary or secondary outcome. Seven items were recorded: raw data (outcomes for each treatment arm), measure of relative difference (e.g., RRR), ARR, number needed to treat, P value, CI, and verbal statement of statistical significance. The prevalence of these items was compared between journals and across time. RESULTS Of 5,293 abstracts, 300 met the inclusion criteria. In 1986, 60% of abstracts did not provide both the raw data and a corresponding P value or CI, while 28% failed to do so in 1Dr. Hux is a Career Scientist of the Ontario Ministry of Health and receives salary support from the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences in Ontario.996 (P < .001; RRR of 53%; ARR of 32%; CI for ARR 21% to 43%). The variability between journals was highly significant (P < .001). In 1986, 100% of abstracts lacked a measure of absolute difference while 88% of 1996 abstracts did so (P < .001). In 1986, 98% of abstracts lacked a CI while 65% of 1996 abstracts did so (P < .001). CONCLUSIONS The provision of quantitative outcome and statistical quantitative information has significantly increased between 1986 and 1996. However, further progress can be made to make abstracts more informative. PMID:11929506

  12. Influence of nonlinear effects on statistical properties of the radiation from SASE FEL

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saldin, E. L.; Schneidmiller, E. A.; Yurkov, M. V.

    1998-02-01

    The paper presents analysis of statistical properties of the radiation from self-amplified spontaneous emission (SASE) free-electron laser operating in nonlinear mode. The present approach allows one to calculate the following statistical properties of the SASE FEL radiation: time and spectral field correlation functions, distribution of the fluctuations of the instantaneous radiation power, distribution of the energy in the electron bunch, distribution of the radiation energy after monochromator installed at the FEL amplifier exit and the radiation spectrum. It has been observed that the statistics of the instantaneous radiation power from SASE FEL operating in the nonlinear regime changes significantly with respect to the linear regime. All numerical results presented in the paper have been calculated for the 70 nm SASE FEL at the TESLA Test Facility under construction at DESY.

  13. Nonlinear wave chaos: statistics of second harmonic fields.

    PubMed

    Zhou, Min; Ott, Edward; Antonsen, Thomas M; Anlage, Steven M

    2017-10-01

    Concepts from the field of wave chaos have been shown to successfully predict the statistical properties of linear electromagnetic fields in electrically large enclosures. The Random Coupling Model (RCM) describes these properties by incorporating both universal features described by Random Matrix Theory and the system-specific features of particular system realizations. In an effort to extend this approach to the nonlinear domain, we add an active nonlinear frequency-doubling circuit to an otherwise linear wave chaotic system, and we measure the statistical properties of the resulting second harmonic fields. We develop an RCM-based model of this system as two linear chaotic cavities coupled by means of a nonlinear transfer function. The harmonic field strengths are predicted to be the product of two statistical quantities and the nonlinearity characteristics. Statistical results from measurement-based calculation, RCM-based simulation, and direct experimental measurements are compared and show good agreement over many decades of power.

  14. A new statistic for the analysis of circular data in gamma-ray astronomy

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Protheroe, R. J.

    1985-01-01

    A new statistic is proposed for the analysis of circular data. The statistic is designed specifically for situations where a test of uniformity is required which is powerful against alternatives in which a small fraction of the observations is grouped in a small range of directions, or phases.

  15. New Statistics for Testing Differential Expression of Pathways from Microarray Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Siu, Hoicheong; Dong, Hua; Jin, Li; Xiong, Momiao

    Exploring biological meaning from microarray data is very important but remains a great challenge. Here, we developed three new statistics: linear combination test, quadratic test and de-correlation test to identify differentially expressed pathways from gene expression profile. We apply our statistics to two rheumatoid arthritis datasets. Notably, our results reveal three significant pathways and 275 genes in common in two datasets. The pathways we found are meaningful to uncover the disease mechanisms of rheumatoid arthritis, which implies that our statistics are a powerful tool in functional analysis of gene expression data.

  16. Power estimation using simulations for air pollution time-series studies

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Estimation of power to assess associations of interest can be challenging for time-series studies of the acute health effects of air pollution because there are two dimensions of sample size (time-series length and daily outcome counts), and because these studies often use generalized linear models to control for complex patterns of covariation between pollutants and time trends, meteorology and possibly other pollutants. In general, statistical software packages for power estimation rely on simplifying assumptions that may not adequately capture this complexity. Here we examine the impact of various factors affecting power using simulations, with comparison of power estimates obtained from simulations with those obtained using statistical software. Methods Power was estimated for various analyses within a time-series study of air pollution and emergency department visits using simulations for specified scenarios. Mean daily emergency department visit counts, model parameter value estimates and daily values for air pollution and meteorological variables from actual data (8/1/98 to 7/31/99 in Atlanta) were used to generate simulated daily outcome counts with specified temporal associations with air pollutants and randomly generated error based on a Poisson distribution. Power was estimated by conducting analyses of the association between simulated daily outcome counts and air pollution in 2000 data sets for each scenario. Power estimates from simulations and statistical software (G*Power and PASS) were compared. Results In the simulation results, increasing time-series length and average daily outcome counts both increased power to a similar extent. Our results also illustrate the low power that can result from using outcomes with low daily counts or short time series, and the reduction in power that can accompany use of multipollutant models. Power estimates obtained using standard statistical software were very similar to those from the simulations

  17. Power estimation using simulations for air pollution time-series studies.

    PubMed

    Winquist, Andrea; Klein, Mitchel; Tolbert, Paige; Sarnat, Stefanie Ebelt

    2012-09-20

    Estimation of power to assess associations of interest can be challenging for time-series studies of the acute health effects of air pollution because there are two dimensions of sample size (time-series length and daily outcome counts), and because these studies often use generalized linear models to control for complex patterns of covariation between pollutants and time trends, meteorology and possibly other pollutants. In general, statistical software packages for power estimation rely on simplifying assumptions that may not adequately capture this complexity. Here we examine the impact of various factors affecting power using simulations, with comparison of power estimates obtained from simulations with those obtained using statistical software. Power was estimated for various analyses within a time-series study of air pollution and emergency department visits using simulations for specified scenarios. Mean daily emergency department visit counts, model parameter value estimates and daily values for air pollution and meteorological variables from actual data (8/1/98 to 7/31/99 in Atlanta) were used to generate simulated daily outcome counts with specified temporal associations with air pollutants and randomly generated error based on a Poisson distribution. Power was estimated by conducting analyses of the association between simulated daily outcome counts and air pollution in 2000 data sets for each scenario. Power estimates from simulations and statistical software (G*Power and PASS) were compared. In the simulation results, increasing time-series length and average daily outcome counts both increased power to a similar extent. Our results also illustrate the low power that can result from using outcomes with low daily counts or short time series, and the reduction in power that can accompany use of multipollutant models. Power estimates obtained using standard statistical software were very similar to those from the simulations when properly implemented

  18. Power Analysis Software for Educational Researchers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Peng, Chao-Ying Joanne; Long, Haiying; Abaci, Serdar

    2012-01-01

    Given the importance of statistical power analysis in quantitative research and the repeated emphasis on it by American Educational Research Association/American Psychological Association journals, the authors examined the reporting practice of power analysis by the quantitative studies published in 12 education/psychology journals between 2005…

  19. Integrated Wind Power Planning Tool

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosgaard, Martin; Giebel, Gregor; Skov Nielsen, Torben; Hahmann, Andrea; Sørensen, Poul; Madsen, Henrik

    2013-04-01

    This poster presents the current state of the public service obligation (PSO) funded project PSO 10464, with the title "Integrated Wind Power Planning Tool". The goal is to integrate a mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) model with purely statistical tools in order to assess wind power fluctuations, with focus on long term power system planning for future wind farms as well as short term forecasting for existing wind farms. Currently, wind power fluctuation models are either purely statistical or integrated with NWP models of limited resolution. Using the state-of-the-art mesoscale NWP model Weather Research & Forecasting model (WRF) the forecast error is sought quantified in dependence of the time scale involved. This task constitutes a preparative study for later implementation of features accounting for NWP forecast errors in the DTU Wind Energy maintained Corwind code - a long term wind power planning tool. Within the framework of PSO 10464 research related to operational short term wind power prediction will be carried out, including a comparison of forecast quality at different mesoscale NWP model resolutions and development of a statistical wind power prediction tool taking input from WRF. The short term prediction part of the project is carried out in collaboration with ENFOR A/S; a Danish company that specialises in forecasting and optimisation for the energy sector. The integrated prediction model will allow for the description of the expected variability in wind power production in the coming hours to days, accounting for its spatio-temporal dependencies, and depending on the prevailing weather conditions defined by the WRF output. The output from the integrated short term prediction tool constitutes scenario forecasts for the coming period, which can then be fed into any type of system model or decision making problem to be solved. The high resolution of the WRF results loaded into the integrated prediction model will ensure a high accuracy

  20. Understanding Statistics - Cancer Statistics

    Cancer.gov

    Annual reports of U.S. cancer statistics including new cases, deaths, trends, survival, prevalence, lifetime risk, and progress toward Healthy People targets, plus statistical summaries for a number of common cancer types.

  1. Renal calcinosis and stone formation in mice lacking osteopontin, Tamm-Horsfall protein, or both.

    PubMed

    Mo, Lan; Liaw, Lucy; Evan, Andrew P; Sommer, Andre J; Lieske, John C; Wu, Xue-Ru

    2007-12-01

    Although often supersaturated with mineral salts such as calcium phosphate and calcium oxalate, normal urine possesses an innate ability to keep them from forming harmful crystals. This inhibitory activity has been attributed to the presence of urinary macromolecules, although controversies abound regarding their role, or lack thereof, in preventing renal mineralization. Here, we show that 10% of the mice lacking osteopontin (OPN) and 14.3% of the mice lacking Tamm-Horsfall protein (THP) spontaneously form interstitial deposits of calcium phosphate within the renal papillae, events never seen in wild-type mice. Lack of both proteins causes renal crystallization in 39.3% of the double-null mice. Urinalysis revealed elevated concentrations of urine phosphorus and brushite (calcium phosphate) supersaturation in THP-null and OPN/THP-double null mice, suggesting that impaired phosphorus handling may be linked to interstitial papillary calcinosis in THP- but not in OPN-null mice. In contrast, experimentally induced hyperoxaluria provokes widespread intratubular calcium oxalate crystallization and stone formation in OPN/THP-double null mice, while completely sparing the wild-type controls. Whole urine from OPN-, THP-, or double-null mice all possessed a dramatically reduced ability to inhibit the adhesion of calcium oxalate monohydrate crystals to renal epithelial cells. These data establish OPN and THP as powerful and functionally synergistic inhibitors of calcium phosphate and calcium oxalate crystallization in vivo and suggest that defects in either molecule may contribute to renal calcinosis and stone formation, an exceedingly common condition that afflicts up to 12% males and 5% females.

  2. Cosmological Constraints from Galaxy Cluster Velocity Statistics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhattacharya, Suman; Kosowsky, Arthur

    2007-04-01

    Future microwave sky surveys will have the sensitivity to detect the kinematic Sunyaev-Zeldovich signal from moving galaxy clusters, thus providing a direct measurement of their line-of-sight peculiar velocity. We show that cluster peculiar velocity statistics applied to foreseeable surveys will put significant constraints on fundamental cosmological parameters. We consider three statistical quantities that can be constructed from a cluster peculiar velocity catalog: the probability density function, the mean pairwise streaming velocity, and the pairwise velocity dispersion. These quantities are applied to an envisioned data set that measures line-of-sight cluster velocities with normal errors of 100 km s-1 for all clusters with masses larger than 1014 Msolar over a sky area of up to 5000 deg2. A simple Fisher matrix analysis of this survey shows that the normalization of the matter power spectrum and the dark energy equation of state can be constrained to better than 10%, and that the Hubble constant and the primordial power spectrum index can be constrained to a few percent, independent of any other cosmological observations. We also find that the current constraint on the power spectrum normalization can be improved by more than a factor of 2 using data from a 400 deg2 survey and WMAP third-year priors. We also show how the constraints on cosmological parameters change if cluster velocities are measured with normal errors of 300 km s-1.

  3. A powerful approach for association analysis incorporating imprinting effects.

    PubMed

    Xia, Fan; Zhou, Ji-Yuan; Fung, Wing Kam

    2011-09-15

    For a diallelic marker locus, the transmission disequilibrium test (TDT) is a simple and powerful design for genetic studies. The TDT was originally proposed for use in families with both parents available (complete nuclear families) and has further been extended to 1-TDT for use in families with only one of the parents available (incomplete nuclear families). Currently, the increasing interest of the influence of parental imprinting on heritability indicates the importance of incorporating imprinting effects into the mapping of association variants. In this article, we extend the TDT-type statistics to incorporate imprinting effects and develop a series of new test statistics in a general two-stage framework for association studies. Our test statistics enjoy the nature of family-based designs that need no assumption of Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. Also, the proposed methods accommodate complete and incomplete nuclear families with one or more affected children. In the simulation study, we verify the validity of the proposed test statistics under various scenarios, and compare the powers of the proposed statistics with some existing test statistics. It is shown that our methods greatly improve the power for detecting association in the presence of imprinting effects. We further demonstrate the advantage of our methods by the application of the proposed test statistics to a rheumatoid arthritis dataset. wingfung@hku.hk Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

  4. Statistical analyses to support guidelines for marine avian sampling. Final report

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kinlan, Brian P.; Zipkin, Elise; O'Connell, Allan F.; Caldow, Chris

    2012-01-01

    Interest in development of offshore renewable energy facilities has led to a need for high-quality, statistically robust information on marine wildlife distributions. A practical approach is described to estimate the amount of sampling effort required to have sufficient statistical power to identify species-specific “hotspots” and “coldspots” of marine bird abundance and occurrence in an offshore environment divided into discrete spatial units (e.g., lease blocks), where “hotspots” and “coldspots” are defined relative to a reference (e.g., regional) mean abundance and/or occurrence probability for each species of interest. For example, a location with average abundance or occurrence that is three times larger the mean (3x effect size) could be defined as a “hotspot,” and a location that is three times smaller than the mean (1/3x effect size) as a “coldspot.” The choice of the effect size used to define hot and coldspots will generally depend on a combination of ecological and regulatory considerations. A method is also developed for testing the statistical significance of possible hotspots and coldspots. Both methods are illustrated with historical seabird survey data from the USGS Avian Compendium Database. Our approach consists of five main components: 1. A review of the primary scientific literature on statistical modeling of animal group size and avian count data to develop a candidate set of statistical distributions that have been used or may be useful to model seabird counts. 2. Statistical power curves for one-sample, one-tailed Monte Carlo significance tests of differences of observed small-sample means from a specified reference distribution. These curves show the power to detect "hotspots" or "coldspots" of occurrence and abundance at a range of effect sizes, given assumptions which we discuss. 3. A model selection procedure, based on maximum likelihood fits of models in the candidate set, to determine an appropriate statistical

  5. Statistical Considerations of Food Allergy Prevention Studies.

    PubMed

    Bahnson, Henry T; du Toit, George; Lack, Gideon

    Clinical studies to prevent the development of food allergy have recently helped reshape public policy recommendations on the early introduction of allergenic foods. These trials are also prompting new research, and it is therefore important to address the unique design and analysis challenges of prevention trials. We highlight statistical concepts and give recommendations that clinical researchers may wish to adopt when designing future study protocols and analysis plans for prevention studies. Topics include selecting a study sample, addressing internal and external validity, improving statistical power, choosing alpha and beta, analysis innovations to address dilution effects, and analysis methods to deal with poor compliance, dropout, and missing data. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. The statistical big bang of 1911: ideology, technological innovation and the production of medical statistics.

    PubMed

    Higgs, W

    1996-12-01

    This paper examines the relationship between intellectual debate, technologies for analysing information, and the production of statistics in the General Register Office (GRO) in London in the early twentieth century. It argues that controversy between eugenicists and public health officials respecting the cause and effect of class-specific variations in fertility led to the introduction of questions in the 1911 census on marital fertility. The increasing complexity of the census necessitated a shift from manual to mechanised forms of data processing within the GRO. The subsequent increase in processing power allowed the GRO to make important changes to the medical and demographic statistics it published in the annual Reports of the Registrar General. These included substituting administrative sanitary districts for registration districts as units of analysis, consistently transferring deaths in institutions back to place of residence, and abstracting deaths according to the International List of Causes of Death.

  7. Dichotomising continuous data while retaining statistical power using a distributional approach.

    PubMed

    Peacock, J L; Sauzet, O; Ewings, S M; Kerry, S M

    2012-11-20

    Dichotomisation of continuous data is known to be hugely problematic because information is lost, power is reduced and relationships may be obscured or changed. However, not only are differences in means difficult for clinicians to interpret, but thresholds also occur in many areas of medical practice and cannot be ignored. In recognition of both the problems of dichotomisation and the ways in which it may be useful clinically, we have used a distributional approach to derive a difference in proportions with a 95% CI that retains the precision and the power of the CI for the equivalent difference in means. In this way, we propose a dual approach that analyses continuous data using both means and proportions to replace dichotomisation alone and that may be useful in certain situations. We illustrate this work with examples and simulations that show good performance of the parametric approach under standard distributional assumptions from our own research and from the literature. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  8. Enhanced statistical tests for GWAS in admixed populations: assessment using African Americans from CARe and a Breast Cancer Consortium.

    PubMed

    Pasaniuc, Bogdan; Zaitlen, Noah; Lettre, Guillaume; Chen, Gary K; Tandon, Arti; Kao, W H Linda; Ruczinski, Ingo; Fornage, Myriam; Siscovick, David S; Zhu, Xiaofeng; Larkin, Emma; Lange, Leslie A; Cupples, L Adrienne; Yang, Qiong; Akylbekova, Ermeg L; Musani, Solomon K; Divers, Jasmin; Mychaleckyj, Joe; Li, Mingyao; Papanicolaou, George J; Millikan, Robert C; Ambrosone, Christine B; John, Esther M; Bernstein, Leslie; Zheng, Wei; Hu, Jennifer J; Ziegler, Regina G; Nyante, Sarah J; Bandera, Elisa V; Ingles, Sue A; Press, Michael F; Chanock, Stephen J; Deming, Sandra L; Rodriguez-Gil, Jorge L; Palmer, Cameron D; Buxbaum, Sarah; Ekunwe, Lynette; Hirschhorn, Joel N; Henderson, Brian E; Myers, Simon; Haiman, Christopher A; Reich, David; Patterson, Nick; Wilson, James G; Price, Alkes L

    2011-04-01

    While genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have primarily examined populations of European ancestry, more recent studies often involve additional populations, including admixed populations such as African Americans and Latinos. In admixed populations, linkage disequilibrium (LD) exists both at a fine scale in ancestral populations and at a coarse scale (admixture-LD) due to chromosomal segments of distinct ancestry. Disease association statistics in admixed populations have previously considered SNP association (LD mapping) or admixture association (mapping by admixture-LD), but not both. Here, we introduce a new statistical framework for combining SNP and admixture association in case-control studies, as well as methods for local ancestry-aware imputation. We illustrate the gain in statistical power achieved by these methods by analyzing data of 6,209 unrelated African Americans from the CARe project genotyped on the Affymetrix 6.0 chip, in conjunction with both simulated and real phenotypes, as well as by analyzing the FGFR2 locus using breast cancer GWAS data from 5,761 African-American women. We show that, at typed SNPs, our method yields an 8% increase in statistical power for finding disease risk loci compared to the power achieved by standard methods in case-control studies. At imputed SNPs, we observe an 11% increase in statistical power for mapping disease loci when our local ancestry-aware imputation framework and the new scoring statistic are jointly employed. Finally, we show that our method increases statistical power in regions harboring the causal SNP in the case when the causal SNP is untyped and cannot be imputed. Our methods and our publicly available software are broadly applicable to GWAS in admixed populations.

  9. The ASIBS Short Course: A unique strategy for increasing statistical competency of junior investigators in academic medicine.

    PubMed

    Benn, Emma K T; Tu, Chengcheng; Palermo, Ann-Gel S; Borrell, Luisa N; Kiernan, Michaela; Sandre, Mary; Bagiella, Emilia

    2017-08-01

    As clinical researchers at academic medical institutions across the United States increasingly manage complex clinical databases and registries, they often lack the statistical expertise to utilize the data for research purposes. This statistical inadequacy prevents junior investigators from disseminating clinical findings in peer-reviewed journals and from obtaining research funding, thereby hindering their potential for promotion. Underrepresented minorities, in particular, confront unique challenges as clinical investigators stemming from a lack of methodologically rigorous research training in their graduate medical education. This creates a ripple effect for them with respect to acquiring full-time appointments, obtaining federal research grants, and promotion to leadership positions in academic medicine. To fill this major gap in the statistical training of junior faculty and fellows, the authors developed the Applied Statistical Independence in Biological Systems (ASIBS) Short Course. The overall goal of ASIBS is to provide formal applied statistical training, via a hybrid distance and in-person learning format, to junior faculty and fellows actively involved in research at US academic medical institutions, with a special emphasis on underrepresented minorities. The authors present an overview of the design and implementation of ASIBS, along with a short-term evaluation of its impact for the first cohort of ASIBS participants.

  10. Blinking in quantum dots: The origin of the grey state and power law statistics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ye, Mao; Searson, Peter C.

    2011-09-01

    Quantum dot (QD) blinking is characterized by switching between an “on” state and an “off” state, and a power-law distribution of on and off times with exponents from 1.0 to 2.0. The origin of blinking behavior in QDs, however, has remained a mystery. Here we describe an energy-band model for QDs that captures the full range of blinking behavior reported in the literature and provides new insight into features such as the gray state, the power-law distribution of on and off times, and the power-law exponents.

  11. Teaching Challenged-Based Curriculum in a Statistics Classroom: The Effect on Motivation Orientation for Regular and Special Education Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wimpey, Amanda Dickard

    2010-01-01

    Because the high school statistics curriculum is often teacher centered and lacking in innovativeness, students tend to struggle academically in statistics courses, particularly those students who are served by special education. This problem has been linked to a student's motivation to learn. The purpose of this study was to investigate the…

  12. Constructing Space-Time Views from Fixed Size Statistical Data: Getting the Best of both Worlds

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schmidt, Melisa; Yan, Jerry C.

    1997-01-01

    Many performance monitoring tools are currently available to the super-computing community. The performance data gathered and analyzed by these tools fall under two categories: statistics and event traces. Statistical data is much more compact but lacks the probative power event traces offer. Event traces, on the other hand, can easily fill up the entire file system during execution such that the instrumented execution may have to be terminated half way through. In this paper, we propose an innovative methodology for performance data gathering and representation that offers a middle ground. The user can trade-off tracing overhead, trace data size vs. data quality incrementally. In other words, the user will be able to limit the amount of trace collected and, at the same time, carry out some of the analysis event traces offer using space-time views for the entire execution. Two basic ideas arc employed: the use of averages to replace recording data for each instance and formulae to represent sequences associated with communication and control flow. With the help of a few simple examples, we illustrate the use of these techniques in performance tuning and compare the quality of the traces we collected vs. event traces. We found that the trace files thus obtained are, in deed, small, bounded and predictable before program execution and that the quality of the space time views generated from these statistical data are excellent. Furthermore, experimental results showed that the formulae proposed were able to capture 100% of all the sequences associated with 11 of the 15 applications tested. The performance of the formulae can be incrementally improved by allocating more memory at run-time to learn longer sequences.

  13. Constructing Space-Time Views from Fixed Size Statistical Data: Getting the Best of Both Worlds

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schmidt, Melisa; Yan, Jerry C.; Bailey, David (Technical Monitor)

    1996-01-01

    Many performance monitoring tools are currently available to the super-computing community. The performance data gathered and analyzed by these tools fall under two categories: statistics and event traces. Statistical data is much more compact but lacks the probative power event traces offer. Event traces, on the other hand, can easily fill up the entire file system during execution such that the instrumented execution may have to be terminated half way through. In this paper, we propose an innovative methodology for performance data gathering and representation that offers a middle ground. The user can trade-off tracing overhead, trace data size vs. data quality incrementally. In other words, the user will be able to limit the amount of trace collected and, at the same time, carry out some of the analysis event traces offer using spacetime views for the entire execution. Two basic ideas are employed: the use of averages to replace recording data for each instance and "formulae" to represent sequences associated with communication and control flow. With the help of a few simple examples, we illustrate the use of these techniques in performance tuning and compare the quality of the traces we collected vs. event traces. We found that the trace files thus obtained are, in deed, small, bounded and predictable before program execution and that the quality of the space time views generated from these statistical data are excellent. Furthermore, experimental results showed that the formulae proposed were able to capture 100% of all the sequences associated with 11 of the 15 applications tested. The performance of the formulae can be incrementally improved by allocating more memory at run-time to learn longer sequences.

  14. Multi-Reader ROC studies with Split-Plot Designs: A Comparison of Statistical Methods

    PubMed Central

    Obuchowski, Nancy A.; Gallas, Brandon D.; Hillis, Stephen L.

    2012-01-01

    Rationale and Objectives Multi-reader imaging trials often use a factorial design, where study patients undergo testing with all imaging modalities and readers interpret the results of all tests for all patients. A drawback of the design is the large number of interpretations required of each reader. Split-plot designs have been proposed as an alternative, in which one or a subset of readers interprets all images of a sample of patients, while other readers interpret the images of other samples of patients. In this paper we compare three methods of analysis for the split-plot design. Materials and Methods Three statistical methods are presented: Obuchowski-Rockette method modified for the split-plot design, a newly proposed marginal-mean ANOVA approach, and an extension of the three-sample U-statistic method. A simulation study using the Roe-Metz model was performed to compare the type I error rate, power and confidence interval coverage of the three test statistics. Results The type I error rates for all three methods are close to the nominal level but tend to be slightly conservative. The statistical power is nearly identical for the three methods. The coverage of 95% CIs fall close to the nominal coverage for small and large sample sizes. Conclusions The split-plot MRMC study design can be statistically efficient compared with the factorial design, reducing the number of interpretations required per reader. Three methods of analysis, shown to have nominal type I error rate, similar power, and nominal CI coverage, are available for this study design. PMID:23122570

  15. Multi-reader ROC studies with split-plot designs: a comparison of statistical methods.

    PubMed

    Obuchowski, Nancy A; Gallas, Brandon D; Hillis, Stephen L

    2012-12-01

    Multireader imaging trials often use a factorial design, in which study patients undergo testing with all imaging modalities and readers interpret the results of all tests for all patients. A drawback of this design is the large number of interpretations required of each reader. Split-plot designs have been proposed as an alternative, in which one or a subset of readers interprets all images of a sample of patients, while other readers interpret the images of other samples of patients. In this paper, the authors compare three methods of analysis for the split-plot design. Three statistical methods are presented: the Obuchowski-Rockette method modified for the split-plot design, a newly proposed marginal-mean analysis-of-variance approach, and an extension of the three-sample U-statistic method. A simulation study using the Roe-Metz model was performed to compare the type I error rate, power, and confidence interval coverage of the three test statistics. The type I error rates for all three methods are close to the nominal level but tend to be slightly conservative. The statistical power is nearly identical for the three methods. The coverage of 95% confidence intervals falls close to the nominal coverage for small and large sample sizes. The split-plot multireader, multicase study design can be statistically efficient compared to the factorial design, reducing the number of interpretations required per reader. Three methods of analysis, shown to have nominal type I error rates, similar power, and nominal confidence interval coverage, are available for this study design. Copyright © 2012 AUR. All rights reserved.

  16. Statistics of primordial density perturbations from discrete seed masses

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Scherrer, Robert J.; Bertschinger, Edmund

    1991-01-01

    The statistics of density perturbations for general distributions of seed masses with arbitrary matter accretion is examined. Formal expressions for the power spectrum, the N-point correlation functions, and the density distribution function are derived. These results are applied to the case of uncorrelated seed masses, and power spectra are derived for accretion of both hot and cold dark matter plus baryons. The reduced moments (cumulants) of the density distribution are computed and used to obtain a series expansion for the density distribution function. Analytic results are obtained for the density distribution function in the case of a distribution of seed masses with a spherical top-hat accretion pattern. More generally, the formalism makes it possible to give a complete characterization of the statistical properties of any random field generated from a discrete linear superposition of kernels. In particular, the results can be applied to density fields derived by smoothing a discrete set of points with a window function.

  17. A statistical analysis of energy and power demand for the tractive purposes of an electric vehicle in urban traffic - an analysis of a short and long observation period

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Slaski, G.; Ohde, B.

    2016-09-01

    The article presents the results of a statistical dispersion analysis of an energy and power demand for tractive purposes of a battery electric vehicle. The authors compare data distribution for different values of an average speed in two approaches, namely a short and long period of observation. The short period of observation (generally around several hundred meters) results from a previously proposed macroscopic energy consumption model based on an average speed per road section. This approach yielded high values of standard deviation and coefficient of variation (the ratio between standard deviation and the mean) around 0.7-1.2. The long period of observation (about several kilometers long) is similar in length to standardized speed cycles used in testing a vehicle energy consumption and available range. The data were analysed to determine the impact of observation length on the energy and power demand variation. The analysis was based on a simulation of electric power and energy consumption performed with speed profiles data recorded in Poznan agglomeration.

  18. An 'electronic' extramural course in epidemiology and medical statistics.

    PubMed

    Ostbye, T

    1989-03-01

    This article describes an extramural university course in epidemiology and medical statistics taught using a computer conferencing system, microcomputers and data communications. Computer conferencing was shown to be a powerful, yet quite easily mastered, vehicle for distance education. It allows health personnel unable to attend regular classes due to geographical or time constraints, to take part in an interactive learning environment at low cost. This overcomes part of the intellectual and social isolation associated with traditional correspondence courses. Teaching of epidemiology and medical statistics is well suited to computer conferencing, even if the asynchronicity of the medium makes discussion of the most complex statistical concepts a little cumbersome. Computer conferencing may also prove to be a useful tool for teaching other medical and health related subjects.

  19. Effective field theory of statistical anisotropies for primordial bispectrum and gravitational waves

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Rostami, Tahereh; Karami, Asieh; Firouzjahi, Hassan, E-mail: t.rostami@ipm.ir, E-mail: karami@ipm.ir, E-mail: firouz@ipm.ir

    2017-06-01

    We present the effective field theory studies of primordial statistical anisotropies in models of anisotropic inflation. The general action in unitary gauge is presented to calculate the leading interactions between the gauge field fluctuations, the curvature perturbations and the tensor perturbations. The anisotropies in scalar power spectrum and bispectrum are calculated and the dependence of these anisotropies to EFT couplings are presented. In addition, we calculate the statistical anisotropy in tensor power spectrum and the scalar-tensor cross correlation. Our EFT approach incorporates anisotropies generated in models with non-trivial speed for the gauge field fluctuations and sound speed for scalar perturbationsmore » such as in DBI inflation.« less

  20. Record statistics of financial time series and geometric random walks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sabir, Behlool; Santhanam, M. S.

    2014-09-01

    The study of record statistics of correlated series in physics, such as random walks, is gaining momentum, and several analytical results have been obtained in the past few years. In this work, we study the record statistics of correlated empirical data for which random walk models have relevance. We obtain results for the records statistics of select stock market data and the geometric random walk, primarily through simulations. We show that the distribution of the age of records is a power law with the exponent α lying in the range 1.5≤α≤1.8. Further, the longest record ages follow the Fréchet distribution of extreme value theory. The records statistics of geometric random walk series is in good agreement with that obtained from empirical stock data.

  1. Statistical tests for detecting associations with groups of genetic variants: generalization, evaluation, and implementation

    PubMed Central

    Ferguson, John; Wheeler, William; Fu, YiPing; Prokunina-Olsson, Ludmila; Zhao, Hongyu; Sampson, Joshua

    2013-01-01

    With recent advances in sequencing, genotyping arrays, and imputation, GWAS now aim to identify associations with rare and uncommon genetic variants. Here, we describe and evaluate a class of statistics, generalized score statistics (GSS), that can test for an association between a group of genetic variants and a phenotype. GSS are a simple weighted sum of single-variant statistics and their cross-products. We show that the majority of statistics currently used to detect associations with rare variants are equivalent to choosing a specific set of weights within this framework. We then evaluate the power of various weighting schemes as a function of variant characteristics, such as MAF, the proportion associated with the phenotype, and the direction of effect. Ultimately, we find that two classical tests are robust and powerful, but details are provided as to when other GSS may perform favorably. The software package CRaVe is available at our website (http://dceg.cancer.gov/bb/tools/crave). PMID:23092956

  2. On the structure and phase transitions of power-law Poissonian ensembles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eliazar, Iddo; Oshanin, Gleb

    2012-10-01

    Power-law Poissonian ensembles are Poisson processes that are defined on the positive half-line, and that are governed by power-law intensities. Power-law Poissonian ensembles are stochastic objects of fundamental significance; they uniquely display an array of fractal features and they uniquely generate a span of important applications. In this paper we apply three different methods—oligarchic analysis, Lorenzian analysis and heterogeneity analysis—to explore power-law Poissonian ensembles. The amalgamation of these analyses, combined with the topology of power-law Poissonian ensembles, establishes a detailed and multi-faceted picture of the statistical structure and the statistical phase transitions of these elemental ensembles.

  3. Statistical considerations on prognostic models for glioma

    PubMed Central

    Molinaro, Annette M.; Wrensch, Margaret R.; Jenkins, Robert B.; Eckel-Passow, Jeanette E.

    2016-01-01

    Given the lack of beneficial treatments in glioma, there is a need for prognostic models for therapeutic decision making and life planning. Recently several studies defining subtypes of glioma have been published. Here, we review the statistical considerations of how to build and validate prognostic models, explain the models presented in the current glioma literature, and discuss advantages and disadvantages of each model. The 3 statistical considerations to establishing clinically useful prognostic models are: study design, model building, and validation. Careful study design helps to ensure that the model is unbiased and generalizable to the population of interest. During model building, a discovery cohort of patients can be used to choose variables, construct models, and estimate prediction performance via internal validation. Via external validation, an independent dataset can assess how well the model performs. It is imperative that published models properly detail the study design and methods for both model building and validation. This provides readers the information necessary to assess the bias in a study, compare other published models, and determine the model's clinical usefulness. As editors, reviewers, and readers of the relevant literature, we should be cognizant of the needed statistical considerations and insist on their use. PMID:26657835

  4. Redshift data and statistical inference

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Newman, William I.; Haynes, Martha P.; Terzian, Yervant

    1994-01-01

    Frequency histograms and the 'power spectrum analysis' (PSA) method, the latter developed by Yu & Peebles (1969), have been widely employed as techniques for establishing the existence of periodicities. We provide a formal analysis of these two classes of methods, including controlled numerical experiments, to better understand their proper use and application. In particular, we note that typical published applications of frequency histograms commonly employ far greater numbers of class intervals or bins than is advisable by statistical theory sometimes giving rise to the appearance of spurious patterns. The PSA method generates a sequence of random numbers from observational data which, it is claimed, is exponentially distributed with unit mean and variance, essentially independent of the distribution of the original data. We show that the derived random processes is nonstationary and produces a small but systematic bias in the usual estimate of the mean and variance. Although the derived variable may be reasonably described by an exponential distribution, the tail of the distribution is far removed from that of an exponential, thereby rendering statistical inference and confidence testing based on the tail of the distribution completely unreliable. Finally, we examine a number of astronomical examples wherein these methods have been used giving rise to widespread acceptance of statistically unconfirmed conclusions.

  5. Sb2Te3 and Its Superlattices: Optimization by Statistical Design.

    PubMed

    Behera, Jitendra K; Zhou, Xilin; Ranjan, Alok; Simpson, Robert E

    2018-05-02

    The objective of this work is to demonstrate the usefulness of fractional factorial design for optimizing the crystal quality of chalcogenide van der Waals (vdW) crystals. We statistically analyze the growth parameters of highly c axis oriented Sb 2 Te 3 crystals and Sb 2 Te 3 -GeTe phase change vdW heterostructured superlattices. The statistical significance of the growth parameters of temperature, pressure, power, buffer materials, and buffer layer thickness was found by fractional factorial design and response surface analysis. Temperature, pressure, power, and their second-order interactions are the major factors that significantly influence the quality of the crystals. Additionally, using tungsten rather than molybdenum as a buffer layer significantly enhances the crystal quality. Fractional factorial design minimizes the number of experiments that are necessary to find the optimal growth conditions, resulting in an order of magnitude improvement in the crystal quality. We highlight that statistical design of experiment methods, which is more commonly used in product design, should be considered more broadly by those designing and optimizing materials.

  6. Bayesian models: A statistical primer for ecologists

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hobbs, N. Thompson; Hooten, Mevin B.

    2015-01-01

    Bayesian modeling has become an indispensable tool for ecological research because it is uniquely suited to deal with complexity in a statistically coherent way. This textbook provides a comprehensive and accessible introduction to the latest Bayesian methods—in language ecologists can understand. Unlike other books on the subject, this one emphasizes the principles behind the computations, giving ecologists a big-picture understanding of how to implement this powerful statistical approach.Bayesian Models is an essential primer for non-statisticians. It begins with a definition of probability and develops a step-by-step sequence of connected ideas, including basic distribution theory, network diagrams, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and inference from single and multiple models. This unique book places less emphasis on computer coding, favoring instead a concise presentation of the mathematical statistics needed to understand how and why Bayesian analysis works. It also explains how to write out properly formulated hierarchical Bayesian models and use them in computing, research papers, and proposals.This primer enables ecologists to understand the statistical principles behind Bayesian modeling and apply them to research, teaching, policy, and management.Presents the mathematical and statistical foundations of Bayesian modeling in language accessible to non-statisticiansCovers basic distribution theory, network diagrams, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and moreDeemphasizes computer coding in favor of basic principlesExplains how to write out properly factored statistical expressions representing Bayesian models

  7. Multiple Phenotype Association Tests Using Summary Statistics in Genome-Wide Association Studies

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Zhonghua; Lin, Xihong

    2017-01-01

    Summary We study in this paper jointly testing the associations of a genetic variant with correlated multiple phenotypes using the summary statistics of individual phenotype analysis from Genome-Wide Association Studies (GWASs). We estimated the between-phenotype correlation matrix using the summary statistics of individual phenotype GWAS analyses, and developed genetic association tests for multiple phenotypes by accounting for between-phenotype correlation without the need to access individual-level data. Since genetic variants often affect multiple phenotypes differently across the genome and the between-phenotype correlation can be arbitrary, we proposed robust and powerful multiple phenotype testing procedures by jointly testing a common mean and a variance component in linear mixed models for summary statistics. We computed the p-values of the proposed tests analytically. This computational advantage makes our methods practically appealing in large-scale GWASs. We performed simulation studies to show that the proposed tests maintained correct type I error rates, and to compare their powers in various settings with the existing methods. We applied the proposed tests to a GWAS Global Lipids Genetics Consortium summary statistics data set and identified additional genetic variants that were missed by the original single-trait analysis. PMID:28653391

  8. A powerful approach for association analysis incorporating imprinting effects

    PubMed Central

    Xia, Fan; Zhou, Ji-Yuan; Fung, Wing Kam

    2011-01-01

    Motivation: For a diallelic marker locus, the transmission disequilibrium test (TDT) is a simple and powerful design for genetic studies. The TDT was originally proposed for use in families with both parents available (complete nuclear families) and has further been extended to 1-TDT for use in families with only one of the parents available (incomplete nuclear families). Currently, the increasing interest of the influence of parental imprinting on heritability indicates the importance of incorporating imprinting effects into the mapping of association variants. Results: In this article, we extend the TDT-type statistics to incorporate imprinting effects and develop a series of new test statistics in a general two-stage framework for association studies. Our test statistics enjoy the nature of family-based designs that need no assumption of Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium. Also, the proposed methods accommodate complete and incomplete nuclear families with one or more affected children. In the simulation study, we verify the validity of the proposed test statistics under various scenarios, and compare the powers of the proposed statistics with some existing test statistics. It is shown that our methods greatly improve the power for detecting association in the presence of imprinting effects. We further demonstrate the advantage of our methods by the application of the proposed test statistics to a rheumatoid arthritis dataset. Contact: wingfung@hku.hk Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. PMID:21798962

  9. The Fifth Edition of the APA "Publication Manual": Why Its Statistics Recommendations Are So Controversial.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fidler, Fiona

    2002-01-01

    Identifies deficiencies in the new edition of the American Psychological Association's "Publication Manual," drawing on interviews with some critics and other parties. These include lack of follow-through with explanations and examples of how to report the statistics now recommended. (SLD)

  10. Power Imbalances, Food Insecurity, and Children's Rights in Canada.

    PubMed

    Blay-Palmer, Alison

    2016-01-01

    Increasingly, food is provided through an industrial food system that separates people from the source of their food and results in high rates of food insecurity, particularly for the most vulnerable in society. A lack of food is a symptom of a lack of power in a system that privileges free market principles over social justice and the protection of human rights. In Canada, the high rates of food insecurity among Canadian children is a reflection of their lack of power and the disregard of their human rights, despite the adoption of the United Nations (UN) Convention on the Rights of the Child in 1991 and ratification of the International Covenant on Social, Economic and Cultural Rights in 1976, which established the right to food for all Canadians. Dueling tensions between human rights and market forces underpin this unacceptable state of affairs in Canada. Gaventa's "power cube" that describes different facets of power - including spaces, levels, and forms - is used to help understand the power imbalances that underlie this injustice. The analysis considers the impact of neoliberal free market principles on the realization of human rights, and the negative impacts this can have on health and well-being for the most vulnerable in society. Canadian case studies from both community organizations provide examples of how power can be shifted to achieve more inclusive, rights-based policy and action. Given increased global pressures toward more open trade markets and national austerity measures that hollow out social supports, Canada provides a cautionary tale for countries in the EU and the US, and for overall approaches to protect the most vulnerable in society.

  11. Structured statistical models of inductive reasoning.

    PubMed

    Kemp, Charles; Tenenbaum, Joshua B

    2009-01-01

    Everyday inductive inferences are often guided by rich background knowledge. Formal models of induction should aim to incorporate this knowledge and should explain how different kinds of knowledge lead to the distinctive patterns of reasoning found in different inductive contexts. This article presents a Bayesian framework that attempts to meet both goals and describes [corrected] 4 applications of the framework: a taxonomic model, a spatial model, a threshold model, and a causal model. Each model makes probabilistic inferences about the extensions of novel properties, but the priors for the 4 models are defined over different kinds of structures that capture different relationships between the categories in a domain. The framework therefore shows how statistical inference can operate over structured background knowledge, and the authors argue that this interaction between structure and statistics is critical for explaining the power and flexibility of human reasoning.

  12. A statistical power analysis of woody carbon flux from forest inventory data

    Treesearch

    James A. Westfall; Christopher W. Woodall; Mark A. Hatfield

    2013-01-01

    At a national scale, the carbon (C) balance of numerous forest ecosystem C pools can be monitored using a stock change approach based on national forest inventory data. Given the potential influence of disturbance events and/or climate change processes, the statistical detection of changes in forest C stocks is paramount to maintaining the net sequestration status of...

  13. Statistical characterization of short wind waves from stereo images of the sea surface

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mironov, Alexey; Yurovskaya, Maria; Dulov, Vladimir; Hauser, Danièle; Guérin, Charles-Antoine

    2013-04-01

    We propose a methodology to extract short-scale statistical characteristics of the sea surface topography by means of stereo image reconstruction. The possibilities and limitations of the technique are discussed and tested on a data set acquired from an oceanographic platform at the Black Sea. The analysis shows that reconstruction of the topography based on stereo method is an efficient way to derive non-trivial statistical properties of surface short- and intermediate-waves (say from 1 centimer to 1 meter). Most technical issues pertaining to this type of datasets (limited range of scales, lacunarity of data or irregular sampling) can be partially overcome by appropriate processing of the available points. The proposed technique also allows one to avoid linear interpolation which dramatically corrupts properties of retrieved surfaces. The processing technique imposes that the field of elevation be polynomially detrended, which has the effect of filtering out the large scales. Hence the statistical analysis can only address the small-scale components of the sea surface. The precise cut-off wavelength, which is approximatively half the patch size, can be obtained by applying a high-pass frequency filter on the reference gauge time records. The results obtained for the one- and two-points statistics of small-scale elevations are shown consistent, at least in order of magnitude, with the corresponding gauge measurements as well as other experimental measurements available in the literature. The calculation of the structure functions provides a powerful tool to investigate spectral and statistical properties of the field of elevations. Experimental parametrization of the third-order structure function, the so-called skewness function, is one of the most important and original outcomes of this study. This function is of primary importance in analytical scattering models from the sea surface and was up to now unavailable in field conditions. Due to the lack of precise

  14. Statistical Analysis of Zebrafish Locomotor Response.

    PubMed

    Liu, Yiwen; Carmer, Robert; Zhang, Gaonan; Venkatraman, Prahatha; Brown, Skye Ashton; Pang, Chi-Pui; Zhang, Mingzhi; Ma, Ping; Leung, Yuk Fai

    2015-01-01

    Zebrafish larvae display rich locomotor behaviour upon external stimulation. The movement can be simultaneously tracked from many larvae arranged in multi-well plates. The resulting time-series locomotor data have been used to reveal new insights into neurobiology and pharmacology. However, the data are of large scale, and the corresponding locomotor behavior is affected by multiple factors. These issues pose a statistical challenge for comparing larval activities. To address this gap, this study has analyzed a visually-driven locomotor behaviour named the visual motor response (VMR) by the Hotelling's T-squared test. This test is congruent with comparing locomotor profiles from a time period. Different wild-type (WT) strains were compared using the test, which shows that they responded differently to light change at different developmental stages. The performance of this test was evaluated by a power analysis, which shows that the test was sensitive for detecting differences between experimental groups with sample numbers that were commonly used in various studies. In addition, this study investigated the effects of various factors that might affect the VMR by multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA). The results indicate that the larval activity was generally affected by stage, light stimulus, their interaction, and location in the plate. Nonetheless, different factors affected larval activity differently over time, as indicated by a dynamical analysis of the activity at each second. Intriguingly, this analysis also shows that biological and technical repeats had negligible effect on larval activity. This finding is consistent with that from the Hotelling's T-squared test, and suggests that experimental repeats can be combined to enhance statistical power. Together, these investigations have established a statistical framework for analyzing VMR data, a framework that should be generally applicable to other locomotor data with similar structure.

  15. Statistical Analysis of Zebrafish Locomotor Response

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Gaonan; Venkatraman, Prahatha; Brown, Skye Ashton; Pang, Chi-Pui; Zhang, Mingzhi; Ma, Ping; Leung, Yuk Fai

    2015-01-01

    Zebrafish larvae display rich locomotor behaviour upon external stimulation. The movement can be simultaneously tracked from many larvae arranged in multi-well plates. The resulting time-series locomotor data have been used to reveal new insights into neurobiology and pharmacology. However, the data are of large scale, and the corresponding locomotor behavior is affected by multiple factors. These issues pose a statistical challenge for comparing larval activities. To address this gap, this study has analyzed a visually-driven locomotor behaviour named the visual motor response (VMR) by the Hotelling’s T-squared test. This test is congruent with comparing locomotor profiles from a time period. Different wild-type (WT) strains were compared using the test, which shows that they responded differently to light change at different developmental stages. The performance of this test was evaluated by a power analysis, which shows that the test was sensitive for detecting differences between experimental groups with sample numbers that were commonly used in various studies. In addition, this study investigated the effects of various factors that might affect the VMR by multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA). The results indicate that the larval activity was generally affected by stage, light stimulus, their interaction, and location in the plate. Nonetheless, different factors affected larval activity differently over time, as indicated by a dynamical analysis of the activity at each second. Intriguingly, this analysis also shows that biological and technical repeats had negligible effect on larval activity. This finding is consistent with that from the Hotelling’s T-squared test, and suggests that experimental repeats can be combined to enhance statistical power. Together, these investigations have established a statistical framework for analyzing VMR data, a framework that should be generally applicable to other locomotor data with similar structure. PMID

  16. Lack of Set Theory Relevant Prerequisite Knowledge

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dogan-Dunlap, Hamide

    2006-01-01

    Many students struggle with college mathematics topics due to a lack of mastery of prerequisite knowledge. Set theory language is one such prerequisite for linear algebra courses. Many students' mistakes on linear algebra questions reveal a lack of mastery of set theory knowledge. This paper reports the findings of a qualitative analysis of a…

  17. A power set-based statistical selection procedure to locate susceptible rare variants associated with complex traits with sequencing data.

    PubMed

    Sun, Hokeun; Wang, Shuang

    2014-08-15

    Existing association methods for rare variants from sequencing data have focused on aggregating variants in a gene or a genetic region because of the fact that analysing individual rare variants is underpowered. However, these existing rare variant detection methods are not able to identify which rare variants in a gene or a genetic region of all variants are associated with the complex diseases or traits. Once phenotypic associations of a gene or a genetic region are identified, the natural next step in the association study with sequencing data is to locate the susceptible rare variants within the gene or the genetic region. In this article, we propose a power set-based statistical selection procedure that is able to identify the locations of the potentially susceptible rare variants within a disease-related gene or a genetic region. The selection performance of the proposed selection procedure was evaluated through simulation studies, where we demonstrated the feasibility and superior power over several comparable existing methods. In particular, the proposed method is able to handle the mixed effects when both risk and protective variants are present in a gene or a genetic region. The proposed selection procedure was also applied to the sequence data on the ANGPTL gene family from the Dallas Heart Study to identify potentially susceptible rare variants within the trait-related genes. An R package 'rvsel' can be downloaded from http://www.columbia.edu/∼sw2206/ and http://statsun.pusan.ac.kr. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  18. A mechanism producing power law etc. distributions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Heling; Shen, Hongjun; Yang, Bin

    2017-07-01

    Power law distribution is playing an increasingly important role in the complex system study. Based on the insolvability of complex systems, the idea of incomplete statistics is utilized and expanded, three different exponential factors are introduced in equations about the normalization condition, statistical average and Shannon entropy, with probability distribution function deduced about exponential function, power function and the product form between power function and exponential function derived from Shannon entropy and maximal entropy principle. So it is shown that maximum entropy principle can totally replace equal probability hypothesis. Owing to the fact that power and probability distribution in the product form between power function and exponential function, which cannot be derived via equal probability hypothesis, can be derived by the aid of maximal entropy principle, it also can be concluded that maximal entropy principle is a basic principle which embodies concepts more extensively and reveals basic principles on motion laws of objects more fundamentally. At the same time, this principle also reveals the intrinsic link between Nature and different objects in human society and principles complied by all.

  19. Applications of statistical physics to technology price evolution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McNerney, James

    Understanding how changing technology affects the prices of goods is a problem with both rich phenomenology and important policy consequences. Using methods from statistical physics, I model technology-driven price evolution. First, I examine a model for the price evolution of individual technologies. The price of a good often follows a power law equation when plotted against its cumulative production. This observation turns out to have significant consequences for technology policy aimed at mitigating climate change, where technologies are needed that achieve low carbon emissions at low cost. However, no theory adequately explains why technology prices follow power laws. To understand this behavior, I simplify an existing model that treats technologies as machines composed of interacting components. I find that the power law exponent of the price trajectory is inversely related to the number of interactions per component. I extend the model to allow for more realistic component interactions and make a testable prediction. Next, I conduct a case-study on the cost evolution of coal-fired electricity. I derive the cost in terms of various physical and economic components. The results suggest that commodities and technologies fall into distinct classes of price models, with commodities following martingales, and technologies following exponentials in time or power laws in cumulative production. I then examine the network of money flows between industries. This work is a precursor to studying the simultaneous evolution of multiple technologies. Economies resemble large machines, with different industries acting as interacting components with specialized functions. To begin studying the structure of these machines, I examine 20 economies with an emphasis on finding common features to serve as targets for statistical physics models. I find they share the same money flow and industry size distributions. I apply methods from statistical physics to show that industries

  20. Directions for new developments on statistical design and analysis of small population group trials.

    PubMed

    Hilgers, Ralf-Dieter; Roes, Kit; Stallard, Nigel

    2016-06-14

    Most statistical design and analysis methods for clinical trials have been developed and evaluated where at least several hundreds of patients could be recruited. These methods may not be suitable to evaluate therapies if the sample size is unavoidably small, which is usually termed by small populations. The specific sample size cut off, where the standard methods fail, needs to be investigated. In this paper, the authors present their view on new developments for design and analysis of clinical trials in small population groups, where conventional statistical methods may be inappropriate, e.g., because of lack of power or poor adherence to asymptotic approximations due to sample size restrictions. Following the EMA/CHMP guideline on clinical trials in small populations, we consider directions for new developments in the area of statistical methodology for design and analysis of small population clinical trials. We relate the findings to the research activities of three projects, Asterix, IDeAl, and InSPiRe, which have received funding since 2013 within the FP7-HEALTH-2013-INNOVATION-1 framework of the EU. As not all aspects of the wide research area of small population clinical trials can be addressed, we focus on areas where we feel advances are needed and feasible. The general framework of the EMA/CHMP guideline on small population clinical trials stimulates a number of research areas. These serve as the basis for the three projects, Asterix, IDeAl, and InSPiRe, which use various approaches to develop new statistical methodology for design and analysis of small population clinical trials. Small population clinical trials refer to trials with a limited number of patients. Small populations may result form rare diseases or specific subtypes of more common diseases. New statistical methodology needs to be tailored to these specific situations. The main results from the three projects will constitute a useful toolbox for improved design and analysis of small

  1. Signatures of Fractional Exclusion Statistics in the Spectroscopy of Quantum Hall Droplets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cooper, Nigel

    2015-05-01

    One of the most dramatic features of strongly correlated phases is the emergence of quasiparticle excitations with unconventional quantum statistics. The archetypal example is the fractional, ``anyonic,'' quantum statistics predicted for quasiparticles of the fractional quantum Hall phases. While experiments on semiconductor devices have shown that these quasiparticles have fractional charges, a direct observation of the fractional statistics has remained lacking. In this talk I shall show how precision spectroscopy measurements of rotating droplets of ultracold atoms might be used to demonstrate the Haldane fractional exclusion statistics of quasiholes in the Laughlin state of bosons. The characteristic signatures appear in the single-particle excitation spectrum. I shall show that the transitions are governed by a ``many-body selection rule'' which allows one to relate the number of allowed transitions to the number of quasihole states. I shall illustrate the theory with numerically exact simulations of small numbers of particles. Work in collaboration with Steven H. Simon, and supported by the EPSRC and the Royal Society.

  2. Data Sharing and the Development of the Cleveland Clinic Statistical Education Dataset Repository

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nowacki, Amy S.

    2013-01-01

    Examples are highly sought by both students and teachers. This is particularly true as many statistical instructors aim to engage their students and increase active participation. While simulated datasets are functional, they lack real perspective and the intricacies of actual data. In order to obtain real datasets, the principal investigator of a…

  3. Exploring Pre-Service Teachers' Understanding of Statistical Variation: Implications for Teaching and Research

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sharma, Sashi

    2007-01-01

    Concerns about the importance of variation in statistics education and a lack of research in this topic led to a preliminary study which explored pre-service teachers' ideas in this area. The teachers completed a written questionnaire about variation in sampling and distribution contexts. Responses were categorised in relation to a framework that…

  4. Advances in Statistical Methods for Substance Abuse Prevention Research

    PubMed Central

    MacKinnon, David P.; Lockwood, Chondra M.

    2010-01-01

    The paper describes advances in statistical methods for prevention research with a particular focus on substance abuse prevention. Standard analysis methods are extended to the typical research designs and characteristics of the data collected in prevention research. Prevention research often includes longitudinal measurement, clustering of data in units such as schools or clinics, missing data, and categorical as well as continuous outcome variables. Statistical methods to handle these features of prevention data are outlined. Developments in mediation, moderation, and implementation analysis allow for the extraction of more detailed information from a prevention study. Advancements in the interpretation of prevention research results include more widespread calculation of effect size and statistical power, the use of confidence intervals as well as hypothesis testing, detailed causal analysis of research findings, and meta-analysis. The increased availability of statistical software has contributed greatly to the use of new methods in prevention research. It is likely that the Internet will continue to stimulate the development and application of new methods. PMID:12940467

  5. A statistical physics perspective on criticality in financial markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bury, Thomas

    2013-11-01

    Stock markets are complex systems exhibiting collective phenomena and particular features such as synchronization, fluctuations distributed as power-laws, non-random structures and similarity to neural networks. Such specific properties suggest that markets operate at a very special point. Financial markets are believed to be critical by analogy to physical systems, but little statistically founded evidence has been given. Through a data-based methodology and comparison to simulations inspired by the statistical physics of complex systems, we show that the Dow Jones and index sets are not rigorously critical. However, financial systems are closer to criticality in the crash neighborhood.

  6. Quantum statistics in complex networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bianconi, Ginestra

    The Barabasi-Albert (BA) model for a complex network shows a characteristic power law connectivity distribution typical of scale free systems. The Ising model on the BA network shows that the ferromagnetic phase transition temperature depends logarithmically on its size. We have introduced a fitness parameter for the BA network which describes the different abilities of nodes to compete for links. This model predicts the formation of a scale free network where each node increases its connectivity in time as a power-law with an exponent depending on its fitness. This model includes the fact that the node connectivity and growth rate do not depend on the node age alone and it reproduces non trivial correlation properties of the Internet. We have proposed a model of bosonic networks by a generalization of the BA model where the properties of quantum statistics can be applied. We have introduced a fitness eta i = e-bei where the temperature T = 1/ b is determined by the noise in the system and the energy ei accounts for qualitative differences of each node for acquiring links. The results of this work show that a power law network with exponent gamma = 2 can give a Bose condensation where a single node grabs a finite fraction of all the links. In order to address the connection with self-organized processes we have introduced a model for a growing Cayley tree that generalizes the dynamics of invasion percolation. At each node we associate a parameter ei (called energy) such that the probability to grow for each node is given by pii ∝ ebei where T = 1/ b is a statistical parameter of the system determined by the noise called the temperature. This model has been solved analytically with a similar mathematical technique as the bosonic scale-free networks and it shows the self organization of the low energy nodes at the interface. In the thermodynamic limit the Fermi distribution describes the probability of the energy distribution at the interface.

  7. Statistical Design Model (SDM) of satellite thermal control subsystem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mirshams, Mehran; Zabihian, Ehsan; Aarabi Chamalishahi, Mahdi

    2016-07-01

    Satellites thermal control, is a satellite subsystem that its main task is keeping the satellite components at its own survival and activity temperatures. Ability of satellite thermal control plays a key role in satisfying satellite's operational requirements and designing this subsystem is a part of satellite design. In the other hand due to the lack of information provided by companies and designers still doesn't have a specific design process while it is one of the fundamental subsystems. The aim of this paper, is to identify and extract statistical design models of spacecraft thermal control subsystem by using SDM design method. This method analyses statistical data with a particular procedure. To implement SDM method, a complete database is required. Therefore, we first collect spacecraft data and create a database, and then we extract statistical graphs using Microsoft Excel, from which we further extract mathematical models. Inputs parameters of the method are mass, mission, and life time of the satellite. For this purpose at first thermal control subsystem has been introduced and hardware using in the this subsystem and its variants has been investigated. In the next part different statistical models has been mentioned and a brief compare will be between them. Finally, this paper particular statistical model is extracted from collected statistical data. Process of testing the accuracy and verifying the method use a case study. Which by the comparisons between the specifications of thermal control subsystem of a fabricated satellite and the analyses results, the methodology in this paper was proved to be effective. Key Words: Thermal control subsystem design, Statistical design model (SDM), Satellite conceptual design, Thermal hardware

  8. Magnification Bias in Gravitational Arc Statistics

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Caminha, G. B.; Estrada, J.; Makler, M.

    2013-08-29

    The statistics of gravitational arcs in galaxy clusters is a powerful probe of cluster structure and may provide complementary cosmological constraints. Despite recent progresses, discrepancies still remain among modelling and observations of arc abundance, specially regarding the redshift distribution of strong lensing clusters. Besides, fast "semi-analytic" methods still have to incorporate the success obtained with simulations. In this paper we discuss the contribution of the magnification in gravitational arc statistics. Although lensing conserves surface brightness, the magnification increases the signal-to-noise ratio of the arcs, enhancing their detectability. We present an approach to include this and other observational effects in semi-analyticmore » calculations for arc statistics. The cross section for arc formation ({\\sigma}) is computed through a semi-analytic method based on the ratio of the eigenvalues of the magnification tensor. Using this approach we obtained the scaling of {\\sigma} with respect to the magnification, and other parameters, allowing for a fast computation of the cross section. We apply this method to evaluate the expected number of arcs per cluster using an elliptical Navarro--Frenk--White matter distribution. Our results show that the magnification has a strong effect on the arc abundance, enhancing the fraction of arcs, moving the peak of the arc fraction to higher redshifts, and softening its decrease at high redshifts. We argue that the effect of magnification should be included in arc statistics modelling and that it could help to reconcile arcs statistics predictions with the observational data.« less

  9. Addressing the "Replication Crisis": Using Original Studies to Design Replication Studies with Appropriate Statistical Power.

    PubMed

    Anderson, Samantha F; Maxwell, Scott E

    2017-01-01

    Psychology is undergoing a replication crisis. The discussion surrounding this crisis has centered on mistrust of previous findings. Researchers planning replication studies often use the original study sample effect size as the basis for sample size planning. However, this strategy ignores uncertainty and publication bias in estimated effect sizes, resulting in overly optimistic calculations. A psychologist who intends to obtain power of .80 in the replication study, and performs calculations accordingly, may have an actual power lower than .80. We performed simulations to reveal the magnitude of the difference between actual and intended power based on common sample size planning strategies and assessed the performance of methods that aim to correct for effect size uncertainty and/or bias. Our results imply that even if original studies reflect actual phenomena and were conducted in the absence of questionable research practices, popular approaches to designing replication studies may result in a low success rate, especially if the original study is underpowered. Methods correcting for bias and/or uncertainty generally had higher actual power, but were not a panacea for an underpowered original study. Thus, it becomes imperative that 1) original studies are adequately powered and 2) replication studies are designed with methods that are more likely to yield the intended level of power.

  10. Mutual interference between statistical summary perception and statistical learning.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Jiaying; Ngo, Nhi; McKendrick, Ryan; Turk-Browne, Nicholas B

    2011-09-01

    The visual system is an efficient statistician, extracting statistical summaries over sets of objects (statistical summary perception) and statistical regularities among individual objects (statistical learning). Although these two kinds of statistical processing have been studied extensively in isolation, their relationship is not yet understood. We first examined how statistical summary perception influences statistical learning by manipulating the task that participants performed over sets of objects containing statistical regularities (Experiment 1). Participants who performed a summary task showed no statistical learning of the regularities, whereas those who performed control tasks showed robust learning. We then examined how statistical learning influences statistical summary perception by manipulating whether the sets being summarized contained regularities (Experiment 2) and whether such regularities had already been learned (Experiment 3). The accuracy of summary judgments improved when regularities were removed and when learning had occurred in advance. In sum, calculating summary statistics impeded statistical learning, and extracting statistical regularities impeded statistical summary perception. This mutual interference suggests that statistical summary perception and statistical learning are fundamentally related.

  11. A summary of wind power prediction methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Yuqi

    2018-06-01

    The deterministic prediction of wind power, the probability prediction and the prediction of wind power ramp events are introduced in this paper. Deterministic prediction includes the prediction of statistical learning based on histor ical data and the prediction of physical models based on NWP data. Due to the great impact of wind power ramp events on the power system, this paper also introduces the prediction of wind power ramp events. At last, the evaluation indicators of all kinds of prediction are given. The prediction of wind power can be a good solution to the adverse effects of wind power on the power system due to the abrupt, intermittent and undulation of wind power.

  12. UNIFORMLY MOST POWERFUL BAYESIAN TESTS

    PubMed Central

    Johnson, Valen E.

    2014-01-01

    Uniformly most powerful tests are statistical hypothesis tests that provide the greatest power against a fixed null hypothesis among all tests of a given size. In this article, the notion of uniformly most powerful tests is extended to the Bayesian setting by defining uniformly most powerful Bayesian tests to be tests that maximize the probability that the Bayes factor, in favor of the alternative hypothesis, exceeds a specified threshold. Like their classical counterpart, uniformly most powerful Bayesian tests are most easily defined in one-parameter exponential family models, although extensions outside of this class are possible. The connection between uniformly most powerful tests and uniformly most powerful Bayesian tests can be used to provide an approximate calibration between p-values and Bayes factors. Finally, issues regarding the strong dependence of resulting Bayes factors and p-values on sample size are discussed. PMID:24659829

  13. Planck 2015 results. XVI. Isotropy and statistics of the CMB

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Planck Collaboration; Ade, P. A. R.; Aghanim, N.; Akrami, Y.; Aluri, P. K.; Arnaud, M.; Ashdown, M.; Aumont, J.; Baccigalupi, C.; Banday, A. J.; Barreiro, R. B.; Bartolo, N.; Basak, S.; Battaner, E.; Benabed, K.; Benoît, A.; Benoit-Lévy, A.; Bernard, J.-P.; Bersanelli, M.; Bielewicz, P.; Bock, J. J.; Bonaldi, A.; Bonavera, L.; Bond, J. R.; Borrill, J.; Bouchet, F. R.; Boulanger, F.; Bucher, M.; Burigana, C.; Butler, R. C.; Calabrese, E.; Cardoso, J.-F.; Casaponsa, B.; Catalano, A.; Challinor, A.; Chamballu, A.; Chiang, H. C.; Christensen, P. R.; Church, S.; Clements, D. L.; Colombi, S.; Colombo, L. P. L.; Combet, C.; Contreras, D.; Couchot, F.; Coulais, A.; Crill, B. P.; Cruz, M.; Curto, A.; Cuttaia, F.; Danese, L.; Davies, R. D.; Davis, R. J.; de Bernardis, P.; de Rosa, A.; de Zotti, G.; Delabrouille, J.; Désert, F.-X.; Diego, J. M.; Dole, H.; Donzelli, S.; Doré, O.; Douspis, M.; Ducout, A.; Dupac, X.; Efstathiou, G.; Elsner, F.; Enßlin, T. A.; Eriksen, H. K.; Fantaye, Y.; Fergusson, J.; Fernandez-Cobos, R.; Finelli, F.; Forni, O.; Frailis, M.; Fraisse, A. A.; Franceschi, E.; Frejsel, A.; Frolov, A.; Galeotta, S.; Galli, S.; Ganga, K.; Gauthier, C.; Ghosh, T.; Giard, M.; Giraud-Héraud, Y.; Gjerløw, E.; González-Nuevo, J.; Górski, K. M.; Gratton, S.; Gregorio, A.; Gruppuso, A.; Gudmundsson, J. E.; Hansen, F. K.; Hanson, D.; Harrison, D. L.; Henrot-Versillé, S.; Hernández-Monteagudo, C.; Herranz, D.; Hildebrandt, S. R.; Hivon, E.; Hobson, M.; Holmes, W. A.; Hornstrup, A.; Hovest, W.; Huang, Z.; Huffenberger, K. M.; Hurier, G.; Jaffe, A. H.; Jaffe, T. R.; Jones, W. C.; Juvela, M.; Keihänen, E.; Keskitalo, R.; Kim, J.; Kisner, T. S.; Knoche, J.; Kunz, M.; Kurki-Suonio, H.; Lagache, G.; Lähteenmäki, A.; Lamarre, J.-M.; Lasenby, A.; Lattanzi, M.; Lawrence, C. R.; Leonardi, R.; Lesgourgues, J.; Levrier, F.; Liguori, M.; Lilje, P. B.; Linden-Vørnle, M.; Liu, H.; López-Caniego, M.; Lubin, P. M.; Macías-Pérez, J. F.; Maggio, G.; Maino, D.; Mandolesi, N.; Mangilli, A.; Marinucci, D.; Maris, M.; Martin, P. G.; Martínez-González, E.; Masi, S.; Matarrese, S.; McGehee, P.; Meinhold, P. R.; Melchiorri, A.; Mendes, L.; Mennella, A.; Migliaccio, M.; Mikkelsen, K.; Mitra, S.; Miville-Deschênes, M.-A.; Molinari, D.; Moneti, A.; Montier, L.; Morgante, G.; Mortlock, D.; Moss, A.; Munshi, D.; Murphy, J. A.; Naselsky, P.; Nati, F.; Natoli, P.; Netterfield, C. B.; Nørgaard-Nielsen, H. U.; Noviello, F.; Novikov, D.; Novikov, I.; Oxborrow, C. A.; Paci, F.; Pagano, L.; Pajot, F.; Pant, N.; Paoletti, D.; Pasian, F.; Patanchon, G.; Pearson, T. J.; Perdereau, O.; Perotto, L.; Perrotta, F.; Pettorino, V.; Piacentini, F.; Piat, M.; Pierpaoli, E.; Pietrobon, D.; Plaszczynski, S.; Pointecouteau, E.; Polenta, G.; Popa, L.; Pratt, G. W.; Prézeau, G.; Prunet, S.; Puget, J.-L.; Rachen, J. P.; Rebolo, R.; Reinecke, M.; Remazeilles, M.; Renault, C.; Renzi, A.; Ristorcelli, I.; Rocha, G.; Rosset, C.; Rossetti, M.; Rotti, A.; Roudier, G.; Rubiño-Martín, J. A.; Rusholme, B.; Sandri, M.; Santos, D.; Savelainen, M.; Savini, G.; Scott, D.; Seiffert, M. D.; Shellard, E. P. S.; Souradeep, T.; Spencer, L. D.; Stolyarov, V.; Stompor, R.; Sudiwala, R.; Sunyaev, R.; Sutton, D.; Suur-Uski, A.-S.; Sygnet, J.-F.; Tauber, J. A.; Terenzi, L.; Toffolatti, L.; Tomasi, M.; Tristram, M.; Trombetti, T.; Tucci, M.; Tuovinen, J.; Valenziano, L.; Valiviita, J.; Van Tent, B.; Vielva, P.; Villa, F.; Wade, L. A.; Wandelt, B. D.; Wehus, I. K.; Yvon, D.; Zacchei, A.; Zibin, J. P.; Zonca, A.

    2016-09-01

    We test the statistical isotropy and Gaussianity of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropies using observations made by the Planck satellite. Our results are based mainly on the full Planck mission for temperature, but also include some polarization measurements. In particular, we consider the CMB anisotropy maps derived from the multi-frequency Planck data by several component-separation methods. For the temperature anisotropies, we find excellent agreement between results based on these sky maps over both a very large fraction of the sky and a broad range of angular scales, establishing that potential foreground residuals do not affect our studies. Tests of skewness, kurtosis, multi-normality, N-point functions, and Minkowski functionals indicate consistency with Gaussianity, while a power deficit at large angular scales is manifested in several ways, for example low map variance. The results of a peak statistics analysis are consistent with the expectations of a Gaussian random field. The "Cold Spot" is detected with several methods, including map kurtosis, peak statistics, and mean temperature profile. We thoroughly probe the large-scale dipolar power asymmetry, detecting it with several independent tests, and address the subject of a posteriori correction. Tests of directionality suggest the presence of angular clustering from large to small scales, but at a significance that is dependent on the details of the approach. We perform the first examination of polarization data, finding the morphology of stacked peaks to be consistent with the expectations of statistically isotropic simulations. Where they overlap, these results are consistent with the Planck 2013 analysis based on the nominal mission data and provide our most thorough view of the statistics of the CMB fluctuations to date.

  14. Correcting a Persistent Manhattan Project Statistical Error

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reed, Cameron

    2011-04-01

    In his 1987 autobiography, Major-General Kenneth Nichols, who served as the Manhattan Project's ``District Engineer'' under General Leslie Groves, related that when the Clinton Engineer Works at Oak Ridge, TN, was completed it was consuming nearly one-seventh (~ 14%) of the electric power being generated in the United States. This statement has been reiterated in several editions of a Department of Energy publication on the Manhattan Project. This remarkable claim has been checked against power generation and consumption figures available in Manhattan Engineer District documents, Tennessee Valley Authority records, and historical editions of the Statistical Abstract of the United States. The correct figure is closer to 0.9% of national generation. A speculation will be made as to the origin of Nichols' erroneous one-seventh figure.

  15. Integrated Wind Power Planning Tool

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosgaard, M. H.; Giebel, G.; Nielsen, T. S.; Hahmann, A.; Sørensen, P.; Madsen, H.

    2012-04-01

    This poster presents the current state of the public service obligation (PSO) funded project PSO 10464, with the working title "Integrated Wind Power Planning Tool". The project commenced October 1, 2011, and the goal is to integrate a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model with purely statistical tools in order to assess wind power fluctuations, with focus on long term power system planning for future wind farms as well as short term forecasting for existing wind farms. Currently, wind power fluctuation models are either purely statistical or integrated with NWP models of limited resolution. With regard to the latter, one such simulation tool has been developed at the Wind Energy Division, Risø DTU, intended for long term power system planning. As part of the PSO project the inferior NWP model used at present will be replaced by the state-of-the-art Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) model. Furthermore, the integrated simulation tool will be improved so it can handle simultaneously 10-50 times more turbines than the present ~ 300, as well as additional atmospheric parameters will be included in the model. The WRF data will also be input for a statistical short term prediction model to be developed in collaboration with ENFOR A/S; a danish company that specialises in forecasting and optimisation for the energy sector. This integrated prediction model will allow for the description of the expected variability in wind power production in the coming hours to days, accounting for its spatio-temporal dependencies, and depending on the prevailing weather conditions defined by the WRF output. The output from the integrated prediction tool constitute scenario forecasts for the coming period, which can then be fed into any type of system model or decision making problem to be solved. The high resolution of the WRF results loaded into the integrated prediction model will ensure a high accuracy data basis is available for use in the decision making process of the Danish

  16. Canonical Statistical Model for Maximum Expected Immission of Wire Conductor in an Aperture Enclosure

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bremner, Paul G.; Vazquez, Gabriel; Christiano, Daniel J.; Trout, Dawn H.

    2016-01-01

    Prediction of the maximum expected electromagnetic pick-up of conductors inside a realistic shielding enclosure is an important canonical problem for system-level EMC design of space craft, launch vehicles, aircraft and automobiles. This paper introduces a simple statistical power balance model for prediction of the maximum expected current in a wire conductor inside an aperture enclosure. It calculates both the statistical mean and variance of the immission from the physical design parameters of the problem. Familiar probability density functions can then be used to predict the maximum expected immission for deign purposes. The statistical power balance model requires minimal EMC design information and solves orders of magnitude faster than existing numerical models, making it ultimately viable for scaled-up, full system-level modeling. Both experimental test results and full wave simulation results are used to validate the foundational model.

  17. Meta-analysis and The Cochrane Collaboration: 20 years of the Cochrane Statistical Methods Group

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    The Statistical Methods Group has played a pivotal role in The Cochrane Collaboration over the past 20 years. The Statistical Methods Group has determined the direction of statistical methods used within Cochrane reviews, developed guidance for these methods, provided training, and continued to discuss and consider new and controversial issues in meta-analysis. The contribution of Statistical Methods Group members to the meta-analysis literature has been extensive and has helped to shape the wider meta-analysis landscape. In this paper, marking the 20th anniversary of The Cochrane Collaboration, we reflect on the history of the Statistical Methods Group, beginning in 1993 with the identification of aspects of statistical synthesis for which consensus was lacking about the best approach. We highlight some landmark methodological developments that Statistical Methods Group members have contributed to in the field of meta-analysis. We discuss how the Group implements and disseminates statistical methods within The Cochrane Collaboration. Finally, we consider the importance of robust statistical methodology for Cochrane systematic reviews, note research gaps, and reflect on the challenges that the Statistical Methods Group faces in its future direction. PMID:24280020

  18. Statistics of the epoch of reionization 21-cm signal - I. Power spectrum error-covariance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mondal, Rajesh; Bharadwaj, Somnath; Majumdar, Suman

    2016-02-01

    The non-Gaussian nature of the epoch of reionization (EoR) 21-cm signal has a significant impact on the error variance of its power spectrum P(k). We have used a large ensemble of seminumerical simulations and an analytical model to estimate the effect of this non-Gaussianity on the entire error-covariance matrix {C}ij. Our analytical model shows that {C}ij has contributions from two sources. One is the usual variance for a Gaussian random field which scales inversely of the number of modes that goes into the estimation of P(k). The other is the trispectrum of the signal. Using the simulated 21-cm Signal Ensemble, an ensemble of the Randomized Signal and Ensembles of Gaussian Random Ensembles we have quantified the effect of the trispectrum on the error variance {C}II. We find that its relative contribution is comparable to or larger than that of the Gaussian term for the k range 0.3 ≤ k ≤ 1.0 Mpc-1, and can be even ˜200 times larger at k ˜ 5 Mpc-1. We also establish that the off-diagonal terms of {C}ij have statistically significant non-zero values which arise purely from the trispectrum. This further signifies that the error in different k modes are not independent. We find a strong correlation between the errors at large k values (≥0.5 Mpc-1), and a weak correlation between the smallest and largest k values. There is also a small anticorrelation between the errors in the smallest and intermediate k values. These results are relevant for the k range that will be probed by the current and upcoming EoR 21-cm experiments.

  19. Statistical models of power-combining circuits for O-type traveling-wave tube amplifiers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kats, A. M.; Klinaev, Iu. V.; Gleizer, V. V.

    1982-11-01

    The design outlined here allows for imbalances in the power of the devices being combined and for differences in phase. It is shown that the coefficient of combination is described by a beta distribution of the first type when a small number of devices are being combined and that the coefficient is asymptotically normal in relation to both the number of devices and the phase variance of the tube's output signals. Relations are derived that make it possible to calculate the efficiency of a power-combining circuit and the reproducibility of the design parameters when standard devices are used.

  20. An Optimization Principle for Deriving Nonequilibrium Statistical Models of Hamiltonian Dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turkington, Bruce

    2013-08-01

    A general method for deriving closed reduced models of Hamiltonian dynamical systems is developed using techniques from optimization and statistical estimation. Given a vector of resolved variables, selected to describe the macroscopic state of the system, a family of quasi-equilibrium probability densities on phase space corresponding to the resolved variables is employed as a statistical model, and the evolution of the mean resolved vector is estimated by optimizing over paths of these densities. Specifically, a cost function is constructed to quantify the lack-of-fit to the microscopic dynamics of any feasible path of densities from the statistical model; it is an ensemble-averaged, weighted, squared-norm of the residual that results from submitting the path of densities to the Liouville equation. The path that minimizes the time integral of the cost function determines the best-fit evolution of the mean resolved vector. The closed reduced equations satisfied by the optimal path are derived by Hamilton-Jacobi theory. When expressed in terms of the macroscopic variables, these equations have the generic structure of governing equations for nonequilibrium thermodynamics. In particular, the value function for the optimization principle coincides with the dissipation potential that defines the relation between thermodynamic forces and fluxes. The adjustable closure parameters in the best-fit reduced equations depend explicitly on the arbitrary weights that enter into the lack-of-fit cost function. Two particular model reductions are outlined to illustrate the general method. In each example the set of weights in the optimization principle contracts into a single effective closure parameter.

  1. TRAPR: R Package for Statistical Analysis and Visualization of RNA-Seq Data.

    PubMed

    Lim, Jae Hyun; Lee, Soo Youn; Kim, Ju Han

    2017-03-01

    High-throughput transcriptome sequencing, also known as RNA sequencing (RNA-Seq), is a standard technology for measuring gene expression with unprecedented accuracy. Numerous bioconductor packages have been developed for the statistical analysis of RNA-Seq data. However, these tools focus on specific aspects of the data analysis pipeline, and are difficult to appropriately integrate with one another due to their disparate data structures and processing methods. They also lack visualization methods to confirm the integrity of the data and the process. In this paper, we propose an R-based RNA-Seq analysis pipeline called TRAPR, an integrated tool that facilitates the statistical analysis and visualization of RNA-Seq expression data. TRAPR provides various functions for data management, the filtering of low-quality data, normalization, transformation, statistical analysis, data visualization, and result visualization that allow researchers to build customized analysis pipelines.

  2. Precipitation Cluster Distributions: Current Climate Storm Statistics and Projected Changes Under Global Warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quinn, Kevin Martin

    The total amount of precipitation integrated across a precipitation cluster (contiguous precipitating grid cells exceeding a minimum rain rate) is a useful measure of the aggregate size of the disturbance, expressed as the rate of water mass lost or latent heat released, i.e. the power of the disturbance. Probability distributions of cluster power are examined during boreal summer (May-September) and winter (January-March) using satellite-retrieved rain rates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 and Special Sensor Microwave Imager and Sounder (SSM/I and SSMIS) programs, model output from the High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HIRAM, roughly 0.25-0.5 0 resolution), seven 1-2° resolution members of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) experiment, and National Center for Atmospheric Research Large Ensemble (NCAR LENS). Spatial distributions of precipitation-weighted centroids are also investigated in observations (TRMM-3B42) and climate models during winter as a metric for changes in mid-latitude storm tracks. Observed probability distributions for both seasons are scale-free from the smallest clusters up to a cutoff scale at high cluster power, after which the probability density drops rapidly. When low rain rates are excluded by choosing a minimum rain rate threshold in defining clusters, the models accurately reproduce observed cluster power statistics and winter storm tracks. Changes in behavior in the tail of the distribution, above the cutoff, are important for impacts since these quantify the frequency of the most powerful storms. End-of-century cluster power distributions and storm track locations are investigated in these models under a "business as usual" global warming scenario. The probability of high cluster power events increases by end-of-century across all models, by up to an order of magnitude for the highest-power events for which statistics can be computed. For the three models in the suite with continuous

  3. Pitfalls of national routine death statistics for maternal mortality study.

    PubMed

    Saucedo, Monica; Bouvier-Colle, Marie-Hélène; Chantry, Anne A; Lamarche-Vadel, Agathe; Rey, Grégoire; Deneux-Tharaux, Catherine

    2014-11-01

    The lessons learned from the study of maternal deaths depend on the accuracy of data. Our objective was to assess time trends in the underestimation of maternal mortality (MM) in the national routine death statistics in France and to evaluate their current accuracy for the selection and causes of maternal deaths. National data obtained by enhanced methods in 1989, 1999, and 2007-09 were used as the gold standard to assess time trends in the underestimation of MM ratios (MMRs) in death statistics. Enhanced data and death statistics for 2007-09 were further compared by characterising false negatives (FNs) and false positives (FPs). The distribution of cause-specific MMRs, as assessed by each system, was described. Underestimation of MM in death statistics decreased from 55.6% in 1989 to 11.4% in 2007-09 (P < 0.001). In 2007-09, of 787 pregnancy-associated deaths, 254 were classified as maternal by the enhanced system and 211 by the death statistics; 34% of maternal deaths in the enhanced system were FNs in the death statistics, and 20% of maternal deaths in the death statistics were FPs. The hierarchy of causes of MM differed between the two systems. The discordances were mainly explained by the lack of precision in the drafting of death certificates by clinicians. Although the underestimation of MM in routine death statistics has decreased substantially over time, one third of maternal deaths remain unidentified, and the main causes of death are incorrectly identified in these data. Defining relevant priorities in maternal health requires the use of enhanced methods for MM study. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  4. An instrument to assess the statistical intensity of medical research papers.

    PubMed

    Nieminen, Pentti; Virtanen, Jorma I; Vähänikkilä, Hannu

    2017-01-01

    There is widespread evidence that statistical methods play an important role in original research articles, especially in medical research. The evaluation of statistical methods and reporting in journals suffers from a lack of standardized methods for assessing the use of statistics. The objective of this study was to develop and evaluate an instrument to assess the statistical intensity in research articles in a standardized way. A checklist-type measure scale was developed by selecting and refining items from previous reports about the statistical contents of medical journal articles and from published guidelines for statistical reporting. A total of 840 original medical research articles that were published between 2007-2015 in 16 journals were evaluated to test the scoring instrument. The total sum of all items was used to assess the intensity between sub-fields and journals. Inter-rater agreement was examined using a random sample of 40 articles. Four raters read and evaluated the selected articles using the developed instrument. The scale consisted of 66 items. The total summary score adequately discriminated between research articles according to their study design characteristics. The new instrument could also discriminate between journals according to their statistical intensity. The inter-observer agreement measured by the ICC was 0.88 between all four raters. Individual item analysis showed very high agreement between the rater pairs, the percentage agreement ranged from 91.7% to 95.2%. A reliable and applicable instrument for evaluating the statistical intensity in research papers was developed. It is a helpful tool for comparing the statistical intensity between sub-fields and journals. The novel instrument may be applied in manuscript peer review to identify papers in need of additional statistical review.

  5. Improved score statistics for meta-analysis in single-variant and gene-level association studies.

    PubMed

    Yang, Jingjing; Chen, Sai; Abecasis, Gonçalo

    2018-06-01

    Meta-analysis is now an essential tool for genetic association studies, allowing them to combine large studies and greatly accelerating the pace of genetic discovery. Although the standard meta-analysis methods perform equivalently as the more cumbersome joint analysis under ideal settings, they result in substantial power loss under unbalanced settings with various case-control ratios. Here, we investigate the power loss problem by the standard meta-analysis methods for unbalanced studies, and further propose novel meta-analysis methods performing equivalently to the joint analysis under both balanced and unbalanced settings. We derive improved meta-score-statistics that can accurately approximate the joint-score-statistics with combined individual-level data, for both linear and logistic regression models, with and without covariates. In addition, we propose a novel approach to adjust for population stratification by correcting for known population structures through minor allele frequencies. In the simulated gene-level association studies under unbalanced settings, our method recovered up to 85% power loss caused by the standard methods. We further showed the power gain of our methods in gene-level tests with 26 unbalanced studies of age-related macular degeneration . In addition, we took the meta-analysis of three unbalanced studies of type 2 diabetes as an example to discuss the challenges of meta-analyzing multi-ethnic samples. In summary, our improved meta-score-statistics with corrections for population stratification can be used to construct both single-variant and gene-level association studies, providing a useful framework for ensuring well-powered, convenient, cross-study analyses. © 2018 WILEY PERIODICALS, INC.

  6. Wind energy in electric power production, preliminary study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lento, R.; Peltola, E.

    1984-01-01

    The wind speed conditions in Finland have been studied with the aid of the existing statistics of the Finnish Meteorological Institute. With the aid of the statistics estimates on the available wind energy were also made. Eight hundred wind power plants, 1.5 MW each, on the windiest west coast would produce about 2 TWh energy per year. Far more information on the temporal, geographical and vertical distribution of the wind speed than the present statistics included is needed when the available wind energy is estimated, when wind power plants are dimensioned optimally, and when suitable locations are chosen for them. The investment costs of a wind power plant increase when the height of the tower or the diameter of the rotor is increased, but the energy production increases, too. Thus, overdimensioning the wind power plant in view of energy needs or the wind conditions caused extra costs. The cost of energy produced by wind power can not yet compete with conventional energy, but the situation changes to the advantage of wind energy, if the real price of the plants decreases (among other things due to large series production and increasing experience), or if the real price of fuels rises. The inconvinience on the environment caused by the wind power plants is considered insignificant. The noise caused by the plant attenuates rapidly with distance. No harmful effects to birds and other animals caused by the wind power plants have been observed in the studies made abroad. Parts of the plant getting loose during an accident, or ice forming on the blades are estimated to fly even from a large plant only a few hundred meters.

  7. Multiple phenotype association tests using summary statistics in genome-wide association studies.

    PubMed

    Liu, Zhonghua; Lin, Xihong

    2018-03-01

    We study in this article jointly testing the associations of a genetic variant with correlated multiple phenotypes using the summary statistics of individual phenotype analysis from Genome-Wide Association Studies (GWASs). We estimated the between-phenotype correlation matrix using the summary statistics of individual phenotype GWAS analyses, and developed genetic association tests for multiple phenotypes by accounting for between-phenotype correlation without the need to access individual-level data. Since genetic variants often affect multiple phenotypes differently across the genome and the between-phenotype correlation can be arbitrary, we proposed robust and powerful multiple phenotype testing procedures by jointly testing a common mean and a variance component in linear mixed models for summary statistics. We computed the p-values of the proposed tests analytically. This computational advantage makes our methods practically appealing in large-scale GWASs. We performed simulation studies to show that the proposed tests maintained correct type I error rates, and to compare their powers in various settings with the existing methods. We applied the proposed tests to a GWAS Global Lipids Genetics Consortium summary statistics data set and identified additional genetic variants that were missed by the original single-trait analysis. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

  8. [Statistics for statistics?--Thoughts about psychological tools].

    PubMed

    Berger, Uwe; Stöbel-Richter, Yve

    2007-12-01

    Statistical methods take a prominent place among psychologists' educational programs. Being known as difficult to understand and heavy to learn, students fear of these contents. Those, who do not aspire after a research carrier at the university, will forget the drilled contents fast. Furthermore, because it does not apply for the work with patients and other target groups at a first glance, the methodological education as a whole was often questioned. For many psychological practitioners the statistical education makes only sense by enforcing respect against other professions, namely physicians. For the own business, statistics is rarely taken seriously as a professional tool. The reason seems to be clear: Statistics treats numbers, while psychotherapy treats subjects. So, does statistics ends in itself? With this article, we try to answer the question, if and how statistical methods were represented within the psychotherapeutical and psychological research. Therefore, we analyzed 46 Originals of a complete volume of the journal Psychotherapy, Psychosomatics, Psychological Medicine (PPmP). Within the volume, 28 different analyse methods were applied, from which 89 per cent were directly based upon statistics. To be able to write and critically read Originals as a backbone of research, presumes a high degree of statistical education. To ignore statistics means to ignore research and at least to reveal the own professional work to arbitrariness.

  9. Power Imbalances, Food Insecurity, and Children’s Rights in Canada

    PubMed Central

    Blay-Palmer, Alison

    2016-01-01

    Increasingly, food is provided through an industrial food system that separates people from the source of their food and results in high rates of food insecurity, particularly for the most vulnerable in society. A lack of food is a symptom of a lack of power in a system that privileges free market principles over social justice and the protection of human rights. In Canada, the high rates of food insecurity among Canadian children is a reflection of their lack of power and the disregard of their human rights, despite the adoption of the United Nations (UN) Convention on the Rights of the Child in 1991 and ratification of the International Covenant on Social, Economic and Cultural Rights in 1976, which established the right to food for all Canadians. Dueling tensions between human rights and market forces underpin this unacceptable state of affairs in Canada. Gaventa’s “power cube” that describes different facets of power – including spaces, levels, and forms – is used to help understand the power imbalances that underlie this injustice. The analysis considers the impact of neoliberal free market principles on the realization of human rights, and the negative impacts this can have on health and well-being for the most vulnerable in society. Canadian case studies from both community organizations provide examples of how power can be shifted to achieve more inclusive, rights-based policy and action. Given increased global pressures toward more open trade markets and national austerity measures that hollow out social supports, Canada provides a cautionary tale for countries in the EU and the US, and for overall approaches to protect the most vulnerable in society. PMID:27563642

  10. Joint resonant CMB power spectrum and bispectrum estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meerburg, P. Daniel; Münchmeyer, Moritz; Wandelt, Benjamin

    2016-02-01

    We develop the tools necessary to assess the statistical significance of resonant features in the CMB correlation functions, combining power spectrum and bispectrum measurements. This significance is typically addressed by running a large number of simulations to derive the probability density function (PDF) of the feature-amplitude in the Gaussian case. Although these simulations are tractable for the power spectrum, for the bispectrum they require significant computational resources. We show that, by assuming that the PDF is given by a multivariate Gaussian where the covariance is determined by the Fisher matrix of the sine and cosine terms, we can efficiently produce spectra that are statistically close to those derived from full simulations. By drawing a large number of spectra from this PDF, both for the power spectrum and the bispectrum, we can quickly determine the statistical significance of candidate signatures in the CMB, considering both single frequency and multifrequency estimators. We show that for resonance models, cosmology and foreground parameters have little influence on the estimated amplitude, which allows us to simplify the analysis considerably. A more precise likelihood treatment can then be applied to candidate signatures only. We also discuss a modal expansion approach for the power spectrum, aimed at quickly scanning through large families of oscillating models.

  11. A Comparison between the WATCH Flare Data Statistical Properties and Predictions of the Statistical Flare Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crosby, N.; Georgoulis, M.; Vilmer, N.

    1999-10-01

    Solar burst observations in the deka-keV energy range originating from the WATCH experiment aboard the GRANAT spacecraft were used to perform frequency distributions built on measured X-ray flare parameters (Crosby et al., 1998). The results of the study show that: 1- the overall distribution functions are robust power laws extending over a number of decades. The typical parameters of events (total counts, peak count rates, duration) are all correlated to each other. 2- the overall distribution functions are the convolution of significantly different distribution functions built on parts of the whole data set filtered by the event duration. These "partial" frequency distributions are still power law distributions over several decades, with a slope systematically decreasing with increasing duration. 3- No correlation is found between the elapsed time interval between successive bursts arising from the same active region and the peak intensity of the flare. In this paper, we attempt a tentative comparison between the statistical properties of the self-organized critical (SOC) cellular automaton statistical flare models (see e.g. Lu and Hamilton (1991), Georgoulis and Vlahos (1996, 1998)) and the respective properties of the WATCH flare data. Despite the inherent weaknesses of the SOC models to simulate a number of physical processes in the active region, it is found that most of the observed statistical properties can be reproduced using the SOC models, including the various frequency distributions and scatter plots. We finally conclude that, even if SOC models must be refined to improve the physical links to MHD approaches, they nevertheless represent a good approach to describe the properties of rapid energy dissipation and magnetic field annihilation in complex and magnetized plasmas. Crosby N., Vilmer N., Lund N. and Sunyaev R., A&A; 334; 299-313; 1998 Crosby N., Lund N., Vilmer N. and Sunyaev R.; A&A Supplement Series; 130, 233, 1998 Georgoulis M. and Vlahos L

  12. StatisticAl Characteristics of Cloud over Beijing, China Obtained FRom Ka band Doppler Radar Observation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    LIU, J.; Bi, Y.; Duan, S.; Lu, D.

    2017-12-01

    It is well-known that cloud characteristics, such as top and base heights and their layering structure of micro-physical parameters, spatial coverage and temporal duration are very important factors influencing both radiation budget and its vertical partitioning as well as hydrological cycle through precipitation data. Also, cloud structure and their statistical distribution and typical values will have respective characteristics with geographical and seasonal variation. Ka band radar is a powerful tool to obtain above parameters around the world, such as ARM cloud radar at the Oklahoma US, Since 2006, Cloudsat is one of NASA's A-Train satellite constellation, continuously observe the cloud structure with global coverage, but only twice a day it monitor clouds over same local site at same local time.By using IAP Ka band Doppler radar which has been operating continuously since early 2013 over the roof of IAP building in Beijing, we obtained the statistical characteristic of clouds, including cloud layering, cloud top and base heights, as well as the thickness of each cloud layer and their distribution, and were analyzed monthly and seasonal and diurnal variation, statistical analysis of cloud reflectivity profiles is also made. The analysis covers both non-precipitating clouds and precipitating clouds. Also, some preliminary comparison of the results with Cloudsat/Calipso products for same period and same area are made.

  13. Standardizing power monitoring and control at exascale

    DOE PAGES

    Grant, Ryan E.; Levenhagen, Michael; Olivier, Stephen L.; ...

    2016-10-20

    Power API-the result of collaboration among national laboratories, universities, and major vendors-provides a range of standardized power management functions, from application-level control and measurement to facility-level accounting, including real-time and historical statistics gathering. Here, support is already available for Intel and AMD CPUs and standalone measurement devices.

  14. Power Analysis in Two-Level Unbalanced Designs

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Konstantopoulos, Spyros

    2010-01-01

    Previous work on statistical power has discussed mainly single-level designs or 2-level balanced designs with random effects. Although balanced experiments are common, in practice balance cannot always be achieved. Work on class size is one example of unbalanced designs. This study provides methods for power analysis in 2-level unbalanced designs…

  15. The kappa statistic in rehabilitation research: an examination.

    PubMed

    Tooth, Leigh R; Ottenbacher, Kenneth J

    2004-08-01

    The number and sophistication of statistical procedures reported in medical rehabilitation research is increasing. Application of the principles and methods associated with evidence-based practice has contributed to the need for rehabilitation practitioners to understand quantitative methods in published articles. Outcomes measurement and determination of reliability are areas that have experienced rapid change during the past decade. In this study, distinctions between reliability and agreement are examined. Information is presented on analytical approaches for addressing reliability and agreement with the focus on the application of the kappa statistic. The following assumptions are discussed: (1) kappa should be used with data measured on a categorical scale, (2) the patients or objects categorized should be independent, and (3) the observers or raters must make their measurement decisions and judgments independently. Several issues related to using kappa in measurement studies are described, including use of weighted kappa, methods of reporting kappa, the effect of bias and prevalence on kappa, and sample size and power requirements for kappa. The kappa statistic is useful for assessing agreement among raters, and it is being used more frequently in rehabilitation research. Correct interpretation of the kappa statistic depends on meeting the required assumptions and accurate reporting.

  16. Statistical Evaluation of Voltage Variation of Power Distribution System with Clustered Home-Cogeneration Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kato, Takeyoshi; Minagata, Atsushi; Suzuoki, Yasuo

    This paper discusses the influence of mass installation of a home co-generation system (H-CGS) using a polymer electrolyte fuel cell (PEFC) on the voltage profile of power distribution system in residential area. The influence of H-CGS is compared with that of photovoltaic power generation systems (PV systems). The operation pattern of H-CGS is assumed based on the electricity and hot-water demand observed in 10 households for a year. The main results are as follows. With the clustered H-CGS, the voltage of each bus is higher by about 1-3% compared with the conventional system without any distributed generators. Because H-CGS tends to increase the output during the early evening, H-CGS contributes to recover the voltage drop during the early evening, resulting in smaller voltage variation of distribution system throughout a day. Because of small rated power output about 1kW, the influence on voltage profile by the clustered H-CGS is smaller than that by the clustered PV systems. The highest voltage during the day time is not so high as compared with the distribution system with the clustered PV systems, even if the reverse power flow from H-CGS is allowed.

  17. Sub-Shot Noise Power Source for Microelectronics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Strekalov, Dmitry V.; Yu, Nan; Mansour, Kamjou

    2011-01-01

    Low-current, high-impedance microelectronic devices can be affected by electric current shot noise more than they are affected by Nyquist noise, even at room temperature. An approach to implementing a sub-shot noise current source for powering such devices is based on direct conversion of amplitude-squeezed light to photocurrent. The phenomenon of optical squeezing allows for the optical measurements below the fundamental shot noise limit, which would be impossible in the domain of classical optics. This becomes possible by affecting the statistical properties of photons in an optical mode, which can be considered as a case of information encoding. Once encoded, the information describing the photon (or any other elementary excitations) statistics can be also transmitted. In fact, it is such information transduction from optics to an electronics circuit, via photoelectric effect, that has allowed the observation of the optical squeezing. It is very difficult, if not technically impossible, to directly measure the statistical distribution of optical photons except at extremely low light level. The photoelectric current, on the other hand, can be easily analyzed using RF spectrum analyzers. Once it was observed that the photocurrent noise generated by a tested light source in question is below the shot noise limit (e.g. produced by a coherent light beam), it was concluded that the light source in question possess the property of amplitude squeezing. The main novelty of this technology is to turn this well-known information transduction approach around. Instead of studying the statistical property of an optical mode by measuring the photoelectron statistics, an amplitude-squeezed light source and a high-efficiency linear photodiode are used to generate photocurrent with sub-Poissonian electron statistics. By powering microelectronic devices with this current source, their performance can be improved, especially their noise parameters. Therefore, a room-temperature sub

  18. On the Spike Train Variability Characterized by Variance-to-Mean Power Relationship.

    PubMed

    Koyama, Shinsuke

    2015-07-01

    We propose a statistical method for modeling the non-Poisson variability of spike trains observed in a wide range of brain regions. Central to our approach is the assumption that the variance and the mean of interspike intervals are related by a power function characterized by two parameters: the scale factor and exponent. It is shown that this single assumption allows the variability of spike trains to have an arbitrary scale and various dependencies on the firing rate in the spike count statistics, as well as in the interval statistics, depending on the two parameters of the power function. We also propose a statistical model for spike trains that exhibits the variance-to-mean power relationship. Based on this, a maximum likelihood method is developed for inferring the parameters from rate-modulated spike trains. The proposed method is illustrated on simulated and experimental spike trains.

  19. A critical look at prospective surveillance using a scan statistic.

    PubMed

    Correa, Thais R; Assunção, Renato M; Costa, Marcelo A

    2015-03-30

    The scan statistic is a very popular surveillance technique for purely spatial, purely temporal, and spatial-temporal disease data. It was extended to the prospective surveillance case, and it has been applied quite extensively in this situation. When the usual signal rules, as those implemented in SaTScan(TM) (Boston, MA, USA) software, are used, we show that the scan statistic method is not appropriate for the prospective case. The reason is that it does not adjust properly for the sequential and repeated tests carried out during the surveillance. We demonstrate that the nominal significance level α is not meaningful and there is no relationship between α and the recurrence interval or the average run length (ARL). In some cases, the ARL may be equal to ∞, which makes the method ineffective. This lack of control of the type-I error probability and of the ARL leads us to strongly oppose the use of the scan statistic with the usual signal rules in the prospective context. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  20. Planck 2015 results: XVI. Isotropy and statistics of the CMB

    DOE PAGES

    Ade, P. A. R.; Aghanim, N.; Akrami, Y.; ...

    2016-09-20

    In this paper, we test the statistical isotropy and Gaussianity of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropies using observations made by the Planck satellite. Our results are based mainly on the full Planck mission for temperature, but also include some polarization measurements. In particular, we consider the CMB anisotropy maps derived from the multi-frequency Planck data by several component-separation methods. For the temperature anisotropies, we find excellent agreement between results based on these sky maps over both a very large fraction of the sky and a broad range of angular scales, establishing that potential foreground residuals do not affect ourmore » studies. Tests of skewness, kurtosis, multi-normality, N-point functions, and Minkowski functionals indicate consistency with Gaussianity, while a power deficit at large angular scales is manifested in several ways, for example low map variance. The results of a peak statistics analysis are consistent with the expectations of a Gaussian random field. The “Cold Spot” is detected with several methods, including map kurtosis, peak statistics, and mean temperature profile. We thoroughly probe the large-scale dipolar power asymmetry, detecting it with several independent tests, and address the subject of a posteriori correction. Tests of directionality suggest the presence of angular clustering from large to small scales, but at a significance that is dependent on the details of the approach. We perform the first examination of polarization data, finding the morphology of stacked peaks to be consistent with the expectations of statistically isotropic simulations. Finally, where they overlap, these results are consistent with the Planck 2013 analysis based on the nominal mission data and provide our most thorough view of the statistics of the CMB fluctuations to date.« less

  1. Statistical scaling of geometric characteristics in stochastically generated pore microstructures

    DOE PAGES

    Hyman, Jeffrey D.; Guadagnini, Alberto; Winter, C. Larrabee

    2015-05-21

    In this study, we analyze the statistical scaling of structural attributes of virtual porous microstructures that are stochastically generated by thresholding Gaussian random fields. Characterization of the extent at which randomly generated pore spaces can be considered as representative of a particular rock sample depends on the metrics employed to compare the virtual sample against its physical counterpart. Typically, comparisons against features and/patterns of geometric observables, e.g., porosity and specific surface area, flow-related macroscopic parameters, e.g., permeability, or autocorrelation functions are used to assess the representativeness of a virtual sample, and thereby the quality of the generation method. Here, wemore » rely on manifestations of statistical scaling of geometric observables which were recently observed in real millimeter scale rock samples [13] as additional relevant metrics by which to characterize a virtual sample. We explore the statistical scaling of two geometric observables, namely porosity (Φ) and specific surface area (SSA), of porous microstructures generated using the method of Smolarkiewicz and Winter [42] and Hyman and Winter [22]. Our results suggest that the method can produce virtual pore space samples displaying the symptoms of statistical scaling observed in real rock samples. Order q sample structure functions (statistical moments of absolute increments) of Φ and SSA scale as a power of the separation distance (lag) over a range of lags, and extended self-similarity (linear relationship between log structure functions of successive orders) appears to be an intrinsic property of the generated media. The width of the range of lags where power-law scaling is observed and the Hurst coefficient associated with the variables we consider can be controlled by the generation parameters of the method.« less

  2. Statistical research into low-power solar flares. Main phase duration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Borovik, Aleksandr; Zhdanov, Anton

    2017-12-01

    This paper is a sequel to earlier papers on time parameters of solar flares in the Hα line. Using data from the International Flare Patrol, an electronic database of solar flares for the period 1972-2010 has been created. The statistical analysis of the duration of the main phase has shown that it increases with increasing flare class and brightness. It has been found that the duration of the main phase depends on the type and features of development of solar flares. Flares with one brilliant point have the shortest main phase; flares with several intensity maxima and two-ribbon flares, the longest one. We have identified more than 3000 cases with an ultra-long duration of the main phase (more than 60 minutes). For 90% of such flares the duration of the main phase is 2-3 hrs, but sometimes it reaches 12 hrs.

  3. Orthogonality catastrophe and fractional exclusion statistics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ares, Filiberto; Gupta, Kumar S.; de Queiroz, Amilcar R.

    2018-02-01

    We show that the N -particle Sutherland model with inverse-square and harmonic interactions exhibits orthogonality catastrophe. For a fixed value of the harmonic coupling, the overlap of the N -body ground state wave functions with two different values of the inverse-square interaction term goes to zero in the thermodynamic limit. When the two values of the inverse-square coupling differ by an infinitesimal amount, the wave function overlap shows an exponential suppression. This is qualitatively different from the usual power law suppression observed in the Anderson's orthogonality catastrophe. We also obtain an analytic expression for the wave function overlaps for an arbitrary set of couplings, whose properties are analyzed numerically. The quasiparticles constituting the ground state wave functions of the Sutherland model are known to obey fractional exclusion statistics. Our analysis indicates that the orthogonality catastrophe may be valid in systems with more general kinds of statistics than just the fermionic type.

  4. Orthogonality catastrophe and fractional exclusion statistics.

    PubMed

    Ares, Filiberto; Gupta, Kumar S; de Queiroz, Amilcar R

    2018-02-01

    We show that the N-particle Sutherland model with inverse-square and harmonic interactions exhibits orthogonality catastrophe. For a fixed value of the harmonic coupling, the overlap of the N-body ground state wave functions with two different values of the inverse-square interaction term goes to zero in the thermodynamic limit. When the two values of the inverse-square coupling differ by an infinitesimal amount, the wave function overlap shows an exponential suppression. This is qualitatively different from the usual power law suppression observed in the Anderson's orthogonality catastrophe. We also obtain an analytic expression for the wave function overlaps for an arbitrary set of couplings, whose properties are analyzed numerically. The quasiparticles constituting the ground state wave functions of the Sutherland model are known to obey fractional exclusion statistics. Our analysis indicates that the orthogonality catastrophe may be valid in systems with more general kinds of statistics than just the fermionic type.

  5. Using scan statistics for congenital anomalies surveillance: the EUROCAT methodology.

    PubMed

    Teljeur, Conor; Kelly, Alan; Loane, Maria; Densem, James; Dolk, Helen

    2015-11-01

    Scan statistics have been used extensively to identify temporal clusters of health events. We describe the temporal cluster detection methodology adopted by the EUROCAT (European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies) monitoring system. Since 2001, EUROCAT has implemented variable window width scan statistic for detecting unusual temporal aggregations of congenital anomaly cases. The scan windows are based on numbers of cases rather than being defined by time. The methodology is imbedded in the EUROCAT Central Database for annual application to centrally held registry data. The methodology was incrementally adapted to improve the utility and to address statistical issues. Simulation exercises were used to determine the power of the methodology to identify periods of raised risk (of 1-18 months). In order to operationalize the scan methodology, a number of adaptations were needed, including: estimating date of conception as unit of time; deciding the maximum length (in time) and recency of clusters of interest; reporting of multiple and overlapping significant clusters; replacing the Monte Carlo simulation with a lookup table to reduce computation time; and placing a threshold on underlying population change and estimating the false positive rate by simulation. Exploration of power found that raised risk periods lasting 1 month are unlikely to be detected except when the relative risk and case counts are high. The variable window width scan statistic is a useful tool for the surveillance of congenital anomalies. Numerous adaptations have improved the utility of the original methodology in the context of temporal cluster detection in congenital anomalies.

  6. Statistics of atmospheric turbulence within a natural black spruce forest canopy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Amiro, B. D.; Davis, P. A.

    1988-08-01

    Turbulence statistics were measured in a natural black-spruce forest canopy in southeastern Manitoba, Canada. Sonic anemometers were used to measure time series of vertical wind velocity ( w), and cup anemometers to measure horizontal wind speed ( s), above the canopy and at seven different heights within the canopy. Vertical profiles were measured during 25 runs on eight different days when conditions above the canopy were near-neutral. Profiles of s and of the standard deviation (Σ w ) of w show relatively little scatter and suggest that, for this canopy and these stability conditions, profiles can be predicted from simple measurements made above the canopy. Within the canopy, a negative skewness and a high kurtosis of the w-frequency distributions indicate asymmetry and the persistence of large, high-velocity eddies. The Eulerian time scale is only a weak function of height within the canopy. Although w-power spectra above the canopy are similar to those in the free atmosphere, we did not observe an extensive inertial subrange in the spectra within the canopy. Also, a second peak is present that is especially prominent near the ground. The lack of the inertial subrange is likely caused by the presence of sources and sinks for turbulent kinetic energy within our canopy. The secondary spectral peak is probably generated by wake turbulence caused by form drag on the wide, horizontal spruce branches.

  7. Statistical analysis of RHIC beam position monitors performance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Calaga, R.; Tomás, R.

    2004-04-01

    A detailed statistical analysis of beam position monitors (BPM) performance at RHIC is a critical factor in improving regular operations and future runs. Robust identification of malfunctioning BPMs plays an important role in any orbit or turn-by-turn analysis. Singular value decomposition and Fourier transform methods, which have evolved as powerful numerical techniques in signal processing, will aid in such identification from BPM data. This is the first attempt at RHIC to use a large set of data to statistically enhance the capability of these two techniques and determine BPM performance. A comparison from run 2003 data shows striking agreement between the two methods and hence can be used to improve BPM functioning at RHIC and possibly other accelerators.

  8. BIG DATA AND STATISTICS

    PubMed Central

    Rossell, David

    2016-01-01

    Big Data brings unprecedented power to address scientific, economic and societal issues, but also amplifies the possibility of certain pitfalls. These include using purely data-driven approaches that disregard understanding the phenomenon under study, aiming at a dynamically moving target, ignoring critical data collection issues, summarizing or preprocessing the data inadequately and mistaking noise for signal. We review some success stories and illustrate how statistical principles can help obtain more reliable information from data. We also touch upon current challenges that require active methodological research, such as strategies for efficient computation, integration of heterogeneous data, extending the underlying theory to increasingly complex questions and, perhaps most importantly, training a new generation of scientists to develop and deploy these strategies. PMID:27722040

  9. Local multiplicity adjustment for the spatial scan statistic using the Gumbel distribution

    PubMed Central

    Gangnon, Ronald E.

    2011-01-01

    Summary The spatial scan statistic is an important and widely used tool for cluster detection. It is based on the simultaneous evaluation of the statistical significance of the maximum likelihood ratio test statistic over a large collection of potential clusters. In most cluster detection problems, there is variation in the extent of local multiplicity across the study region. For example, using a fixed maximum geographic radius for clusters, urban areas typically have many overlapping potential clusters, while rural areas have relatively few. The spatial scan statistic does not account for local multiplicity variation. We describe a previously proposed local multiplicity adjustment based on a nested Bonferroni correction and propose a novel adjustment based on a Gumbel distribution approximation to the distribution of a local scan statistic. We compare the performance of all three statistics in terms of power and a novel unbiased cluster detection criterion. These methods are then applied to the well-known New York leukemia dataset and a Wisconsin breast cancer incidence dataset. PMID:21762118

  10. Statistical Properties of Online Auctions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Namazi, Alireza; Schadschneider, Andreas

    We characterize the statistical properties of a large number of online auctions run on eBay. Both stationary and dynamic properties, like distributions of prices, number of bids etc., as well as relations between these quantities are studied. The analysis of the data reveals surprisingly simple distributions and relations, typically of power-law form. Based on these findings we introduce a simple method to identify suspicious auctions that could be influenced by a form of fraud known as shill bidding. Furthermore the influence of bidding strategies is discussed. The results indicate that the observed behavior is related to a mixture of agents using a variety of strategies.

  11. Data series embedding and scale invariant statistics.

    PubMed

    Michieli, I; Medved, B; Ristov, S

    2010-06-01

    Data sequences acquired from bio-systems such as human gait data, heart rate interbeat data, or DNA sequences exhibit complex dynamics that is frequently described by a long-memory or power-law decay of autocorrelation function. One way of characterizing that dynamics is through scale invariant statistics or "fractal-like" behavior. For quantifying scale invariant parameters of physiological signals several methods have been proposed. Among them the most common are detrended fluctuation analysis, sample mean variance analyses, power spectral density analysis, R/S analysis, and recently in the realm of the multifractal approach, wavelet analysis. In this paper it is demonstrated that embedding the time series data in the high-dimensional pseudo-phase space reveals scale invariant statistics in the simple fashion. The procedure is applied on different stride interval data sets from human gait measurements time series (Physio-Bank data library). Results show that introduced mapping adequately separates long-memory from random behavior. Smaller gait data sets were analyzed and scale-free trends for limited scale intervals were successfully detected. The method was verified on artificially produced time series with known scaling behavior and with the varying content of noise. The possibility for the method to falsely detect long-range dependence in the artificially generated short range dependence series was investigated. (c) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Drivers of biomass co-firing in U.S. coal-fired power plants

    Treesearch

    Michael E. Goerndt; Francisco X. Aguilar; Kenneth Skog

    2013-01-01

    Substantial knowledge has been generated in the U.S. about the resource base for forest and other residue-derived biomass for bioenergy including co-firing in power plants. However, a lack of understanding regarding power plant-level operations and manager perceptions of drivers of biomass co-firing remains. This study gathered information from U.S. power plant...

  13. 78 FR 62931 - China Ritar Power Corp., Order of Suspension of Trading

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-10-22

    ... SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION [File No. 500-1] China Ritar Power Corp., Order of Suspension of Trading October 4, 2013. It appears to the Securities and Exchange Commission that there is a lack of current and accurate information concerning the securities of China Ritar Power Corp. because China Ritar Power Corp. has not filed any periodic...

  14. Power in the role of the medical director: what it is and how to get more.

    PubMed

    Gabel, Stewart

    2011-05-01

    The formal leadership of mental health care organizations commonly resides in an executive director, who may or may not have had clinical training. The medical director is a psychiatrist who reports to the executive director. For some, this arrangement suggests that the medical director lacks or has lost power in the organization. This paper examines more specifically the types of power available to the medical director using French & Raven (1959) and Raven (2008) bases of power framework. The executive director/medical director relationship can be thought of as a relationship between individuals holding formal and informal power, respectively. Although medical directors lack formal or positional power, they potentially have and can gain more informal power based on their recognized clinical/medical expertise, their personal presence and an assertive involvement and focus on the organizational mission.

  15. Ensemble of Thermostatically Controlled Loads: Statistical Physics Approach.

    PubMed

    Chertkov, Michael; Chernyak, Vladimir

    2017-08-17

    Thermostatically controlled loads, e.g., air conditioners and heaters, are by far the most widespread consumers of electricity. Normally the devices are calibrated to provide the so-called bang-bang control - changing from on to off, and vice versa, depending on temperature. We considered aggregation of a large group of similar devices into a statistical ensemble, where the devices operate following the same dynamics, subject to stochastic perturbations and randomized, Poisson on/off switching policy. Using theoretical and computational tools of statistical physics, we analyzed how the ensemble relaxes to a stationary distribution and established a relationship between the relaxation and the statistics of the probability flux associated with devices' cycling in the mixed (discrete, switch on/off, and continuous temperature) phase space. This allowed us to derive the spectrum of the non-equilibrium (detailed balance broken) statistical system and uncover how switching policy affects oscillatory trends and the speed of the relaxation. Relaxation of the ensemble is of practical interest because it describes how the ensemble recovers from significant perturbations, e.g., forced temporary switching off aimed at utilizing the flexibility of the ensemble to provide "demand response" services to change consumption temporarily to balance a larger power grid. We discuss how the statistical analysis can guide further development of the emerging demand response technology.

  16. Ensemble of Thermostatically Controlled Loads: Statistical Physics Approach

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Chertkov, Michael; Chernyak, Vladimir

    Thermostatically Controlled Loads (TCL), e.g. air-conditioners and heaters, are by far the most wide-spread consumers of electricity. Normally the devices are calibrated to provide the so-called bang-bang control of temperature - changing from on to off , and vice versa, depending on temperature. Aggregation of a large group of similar devices into a statistical ensemble is considered, where the devices operate following the same dynamics subject to stochastic perturbations and randomized, Poisson on/off switching policy. We analyze, using theoretical and computational tools of statistical physics, how the ensemble relaxes to a stationary distribution and establish relation between the re- laxationmore » and statistics of the probability flux, associated with devices' cycling in the mixed (discrete, switch on/off , and continuous, temperature) phase space. This allowed us to derive and analyze spec- trum of the non-equilibrium (detailed balance broken) statistical system. and uncover how switching policy affects oscillatory trend and speed of the relaxation. Relaxation of the ensemble is of a practical interest because it describes how the ensemble recovers from significant perturbations, e.g. forceful temporary switching o aimed at utilizing flexibility of the ensemble in providing "demand response" services relieving consumption temporarily to balance larger power grid. We discuss how the statistical analysis can guide further development of the emerging demand response technology.« less

  17. Ensemble of Thermostatically Controlled Loads: Statistical Physics Approach

    DOE PAGES

    Chertkov, Michael; Chernyak, Vladimir

    2017-01-17

    Thermostatically Controlled Loads (TCL), e.g. air-conditioners and heaters, are by far the most wide-spread consumers of electricity. Normally the devices are calibrated to provide the so-called bang-bang control of temperature - changing from on to off , and vice versa, depending on temperature. Aggregation of a large group of similar devices into a statistical ensemble is considered, where the devices operate following the same dynamics subject to stochastic perturbations and randomized, Poisson on/off switching policy. We analyze, using theoretical and computational tools of statistical physics, how the ensemble relaxes to a stationary distribution and establish relation between the re- laxationmore » and statistics of the probability flux, associated with devices' cycling in the mixed (discrete, switch on/off , and continuous, temperature) phase space. This allowed us to derive and analyze spec- trum of the non-equilibrium (detailed balance broken) statistical system. and uncover how switching policy affects oscillatory trend and speed of the relaxation. Relaxation of the ensemble is of a practical interest because it describes how the ensemble recovers from significant perturbations, e.g. forceful temporary switching o aimed at utilizing flexibility of the ensemble in providing "demand response" services relieving consumption temporarily to balance larger power grid. We discuss how the statistical analysis can guide further development of the emerging demand response technology.« less

  18. Functional specifications for AI software tools for electric power applications. Final report

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Faught, W.S.

    1985-08-01

    The principle barrier to the introduction of artificial intelligence (AI) technology to the electric power industry has not been a lack of interest or appropriate problems, for the industry abounds in both. Like most others, however, the electric power industry lacks the personnel - knowledge engineers - with the special combination of training and skills AI programming demands. Conversely, very few AI specialists are conversant with electric power industry problems and applications. The recent availability of sophisticated AI programming environments is doing much to alleviate this shortage. These products provide a set of powerful and usable software tools that enablemore » even non-AI scientists to rapidly develop AI applications. The purpose of this project was to develop functional specifications for programming tools that, when integrated with existing general-purpose knowledge engineering tools, would expedite the production of AI applications for the electric power industry. Twelve potential applications, representative of major problem domains within the nuclear power industry, were analyzed in order to identify those tools that would be of greatest value in application development. Eight tools were specified, including facilities for power plant modeling, data base inquiry, simulation and machine-machine interface.« less

  19. China’s Soft Power and Growing Influence in Southeast Asia

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2008-03-01

    appropriateness and positive or negative effects generated. In more recent times, China has had a diplomatic makeover and has begun utilizing its soft power...contexts, the United States is the focus of debate over its use of or lack of soft power and the appropriateness and positive or negative effects ...producer’s perspective but the receiver’s view of soft power that is essential. To determine the effectiveness of soft power, an analysis must be made of

  20. Public benefits of public power. [Booklet

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Not Available

    1980-01-01

    The principal characteristics and benefits of public power are described using a question and answer format. The book begins by defining public power, describing its history, and confirming that people have a right to choose. The answers to questions about the benefits of public power are grouped under three major headings: rates, local control; economic and political benefits; and power supply and consumption. Establishing community public systems is hard work, requiring a progression through local government authorization, legal and financial analyses, public persuasion, voter approval, and a bond issue. Electric utility statistics show that local public systems outnumber all othermore » types of ownership. (DCK)« less

  1. 29 CFR 18.602 - Lack of personal knowledge.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 29 Labor 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Lack of personal knowledge. 18.602 Section 18.602 Labor... OFFICE OF ADMINISTRATIVE LAW JUDGES Rules of Evidence Witnesses § 18.602 Lack of personal knowledge. A... witness has personal knowledge of the matter. Evidence to prove personal knowledge may, but need not...

  2. Understanding Statistical Power in Cluster Randomized Trials: Challenges Posed by Differences in Notation and Terminology

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Spybrook, Jessaca; Hedges, Larry; Borenstein, Michael

    2014-01-01

    Research designs in which clusters are the unit of randomization are quite common in the social sciences. Given the multilevel nature of these studies, the power analyses for these studies are more complex than in a simple individually randomized trial. Tools are now available to help researchers conduct power analyses for cluster randomized…

  3. The Relationship between Statistics Self-Efficacy, Statistics Anxiety, and Performance in an Introductory Graduate Statistics Course

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schneider, William R.

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine the relationship between statistics self-efficacy, statistics anxiety, and performance in introductory graduate statistics courses. The study design compared two statistics self-efficacy measures developed by Finney and Schraw (2003), a statistics anxiety measure developed by Cruise and Wilkins (1980),…

  4. Course Modality Choice and Student Performance in Business Statistics Courses in Post Secondary Institutions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Radners, Richard Harry, Jr.

    2011-01-01

    Limited research has been conducted on the role of course modality choice (face-to-face [FTF] or online [OL]) on course grades. At the study site, an independent college, the research problem was the lack of research on the proportions of undergraduate students who completed a statistics course as part of their academic program, in either OL or…

  5. Can power-law scaling and neuronal avalanches arise from stochastic dynamics?

    PubMed

    Touboul, Jonathan; Destexhe, Alain

    2010-02-11

    The presence of self-organized criticality in biology is often evidenced by a power-law scaling of event size distributions, which can be measured by linear regression on logarithmic axes. We show here that such a procedure does not necessarily mean that the system exhibits self-organized criticality. We first provide an analysis of multisite local field potential (LFP) recordings of brain activity and show that event size distributions defined as negative LFP peaks can be close to power-law distributions. However, this result is not robust to change in detection threshold, or when tested using more rigorous statistical analyses such as the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. Similar power-law scaling is observed for surrogate signals, suggesting that power-law scaling may be a generic property of thresholded stochastic processes. We next investigate this problem analytically, and show that, indeed, stochastic processes can produce spurious power-law scaling without the presence of underlying self-organized criticality. However, this power-law is only apparent in logarithmic representations, and does not survive more rigorous analysis such as the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. The same analysis was also performed on an artificial network known to display self-organized criticality. In this case, both the graphical representations and the rigorous statistical analysis reveal with no ambiguity that the avalanche size is distributed as a power-law. We conclude that logarithmic representations can lead to spurious power-law scaling induced by the stochastic nature of the phenomenon. This apparent power-law scaling does not constitute a proof of self-organized criticality, which should be demonstrated by more stringent statistical tests.

  6. Statistical wind analysis for near-space applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roney, Jason A.

    2007-09-01

    Statistical wind models were developed based on the existing observational wind data for near-space altitudes between 60 000 and 100 000 ft (18 30 km) above ground level (AGL) at two locations, Akon, OH, USA, and White Sands, NM, USA. These two sites are envisioned as playing a crucial role in the first flights of high-altitude airships. The analysis shown in this paper has not been previously applied to this region of the stratosphere for such an application. Standard statistics were compiled for these data such as mean, median, maximum wind speed, and standard deviation, and the data were modeled with Weibull distributions. These statistics indicated, on a yearly average, there is a lull or a “knee” in the wind between 65 000 and 72 000 ft AGL (20 22 km). From the standard statistics, trends at both locations indicated substantial seasonal variation in the mean wind speed at these heights. The yearly and monthly statistical modeling indicated that Weibull distributions were a reasonable model for the data. Forecasts and hindcasts were done by using a Weibull model based on 2004 data and comparing the model with the 2003 and 2005 data. The 2004 distribution was also a reasonable model for these years. Lastly, the Weibull distribution and cumulative function were used to predict the 50%, 95%, and 99% winds, which are directly related to the expected power requirements of a near-space station-keeping airship. These values indicated that using only the standard deviation of the mean may underestimate the operational conditions.

  7. a Statistical Theory of the Epilepsies.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thomas, Kuryan

    1988-12-01

    A new physical and mathematical model for the epilepsies is proposed, based on the theory of bond percolation on finite lattices. Within this model, the onset of seizures in the brain is identified with the appearance of spanning clusters of neurons engaged in the spurious and uncontrollable electrical activity characteristic of seizures. It is proposed that the fraction of excitatory to inhibitory synapses can be identified with a bond probability, and that the bond probability is a randomly varying quantity displaying Gaussian statistics. The consequences of the proposed model to the treatment of the epilepsies is explored. The nature of the data on the epilepsies which can be acquired in a clinical setting is described. It is shown that such data can be analyzed to provide preliminary support for the bond percolation hypothesis, and to quantify the efficacy of anti-epileptic drugs in a treatment program. The results of a battery of statistical tests on seizure distributions are discussed. The physical theory of the electroencephalogram (EEG) is described, and extant models of the electrical activity measured by the EEG are discussed, with an emphasis on their physical behavior. A proposal is made to explain the difference between the power spectra of electrical activity measured with cranial probes and with the EEG. Statistical tests on the characteristic EEG manifestations of epileptic activity are conducted, and their results described. Computer simulations of a correlated bond percolating system are constructed. It is shown that the statistical properties of the results of such a simulation are strongly suggestive of the statistical properties of clinical data. The study finds no contradictions between the predictions of the bond percolation model and the observed properties of the available data. Suggestions are made for further research and for techniques based on the proposed model which may be used for tuning the effects of anti -epileptic drugs.

  8. Statistical fluctuations in cooperative cyclotron radiation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anishchenko, S. V.; Baryshevsky, V. G.

    2018-01-01

    Shot noise is the cause of statistical fluctuations in cooperative cyclotron radiation generated by an ensemble of electrons oscillating in magnetic field. Autophasing time - the time required for the cooperative cyclotron radiation power to peak - is the critical parameter characterizing the dynamics of electron-oscillators interacting via the radiation field. It is shown that premodulation of charged particles leads to a considerable narrowing of the autophasing time distribution function for which the analytic expression is obtained. When the number of particles Ne exceeds a certain value that depends on the degree to which the particles have been premodulated, the relative root-mean-square deviation (RMSD) of the autophasing time δT changes from a logarithmic dependence on Ne (δT ∼ 1 / lnNe) to square-root (δT ∼ 1 /√{Ne }). A slight energy spread (∼4%) results in a twofold drop of the maximum attainable power of cooperative cyclotron radiation.

  9. Statistical Measures of Large-Scale Structure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vogeley, Michael; Geller, Margaret; Huchra, John; Park, Changbom; Gott, J. Richard

    1993-12-01

    \\inv Mpc} To quantify clustering in the large-scale distribution of galaxies and to test theories for the formation of structure in the universe, we apply statistical measures to the CfA Redshift Survey. This survey is complete to m_{B(0)}=15.5 over two contiguous regions which cover one-quarter of the sky and include ~ 11,000 galaxies. The salient features of these data are voids with diameter 30-50\\hmpc and coherent dense structures with a scale ~ 100\\hmpc. Comparison with N-body simulations rules out the ``standard" CDM model (Omega =1, b=1.5, sigma_8 =1) at the 99% confidence level because this model has insufficient power on scales lambda >30\\hmpc. An unbiased open universe CDM model (Omega h =0.2) and a biased CDM model with non-zero cosmological constant (Omega h =0.24, lambda_0 =0.6) match the observed power spectrum. The amplitude of the power spectrum depends on the luminosity of galaxies in the sample; bright (L>L(*) ) galaxies are more strongly clustered than faint galaxies. The paucity of bright galaxies in low-density regions may explain this dependence. To measure the topology of large-scale structure, we compute the genus of isodensity surfaces of the smoothed density field. On scales in the ``non-linear" regime, <= 10\\hmpc, the high- and low-density regions are multiply-connected over a broad range of density threshold, as in a filamentary net. On smoothing scales >10\\hmpc, the topology is consistent with statistics of a Gaussian random field. Simulations of CDM models fail to produce the observed coherence of structure on non-linear scales (>95% confidence level). The underdensity probability (the frequency of regions with density contrast delta rho //lineρ=-0.8) depends strongly on the luminosity of galaxies; underdense regions are significantly more common (>2sigma ) in bright (L>L(*) ) galaxy samples than in samples which include fainter galaxies.

  10. Non-Markovian full counting statistics in quantum dot molecules

    PubMed Central

    Xue, Hai-Bin; Jiao, Hu-Jun; Liang, Jiu-Qing; Liu, Wu-Ming

    2015-01-01

    Full counting statistics of electron transport is a powerful diagnostic tool for probing the nature of quantum transport beyond what is obtainable from the average current or conductance measurement alone. In particular, the non-Markovian dynamics of quantum dot molecule plays an important role in the nonequilibrium electron tunneling processes. It is thus necessary to understand the non-Markovian full counting statistics in a quantum dot molecule. Here we study the non-Markovian full counting statistics in two typical quantum dot molecules, namely, serially coupled and side-coupled double quantum dots with high quantum coherence in a certain parameter regime. We demonstrate that the non-Markovian effect manifests itself through the quantum coherence of the quantum dot molecule system, and has a significant impact on the full counting statistics in the high quantum-coherent quantum dot molecule system, which depends on the coupling of the quantum dot molecule system with the source and drain electrodes. The results indicated that the influence of the non-Markovian effect on the full counting statistics of electron transport, which should be considered in a high quantum-coherent quantum dot molecule system, can provide a better understanding of electron transport through quantum dot molecules. PMID:25752245

  11. Power of tests for comparing trend curves with application to national immunization survey (NIS).

    PubMed

    Zhao, Zhen

    2011-02-28

    To develop statistical tests for comparing trend curves of study outcomes between two socio-demographic strata across consecutive time points, and compare statistical power of the proposed tests under different trend curves data, three statistical tests were proposed. For large sample size with independent normal assumption among strata and across consecutive time points, the Z and Chi-square test statistics were developed, which are functions of outcome estimates and the standard errors at each of the study time points for the two strata. For small sample size with independent normal assumption, the F-test statistic was generated, which is a function of sample size of the two strata and estimated parameters across study period. If two trend curves are approximately parallel, the power of Z-test is consistently higher than that of both Chi-square and F-test. If two trend curves cross at low interaction, the power of Z-test is higher than or equal to the power of both Chi-square and F-test; however, at high interaction, the powers of Chi-square and F-test are higher than that of Z-test. The measurement of interaction of two trend curves was defined. These tests were applied to the comparison of trend curves of vaccination coverage estimates of standard vaccine series with National Immunization Survey (NIS) 2000-2007 data. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  12. Cosmological Constraints from Fourier Phase Statistics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ali, Kamran; Obreschkow, Danail; Howlett, Cullan; Bonvin, Camille; Llinares, Claudio; Oliveira Franco, Felipe; Power, Chris

    2018-06-01

    Most statistical inference from cosmic large-scale structure relies on two-point statistics, i.e. on the galaxy-galaxy correlation function (2PCF) or the power spectrum. These statistics capture the full information encoded in the Fourier amplitudes of the galaxy density field but do not describe the Fourier phases of the field. Here, we quantify the information contained in the line correlation function (LCF), a three-point Fourier phase correlation function. Using cosmological simulations, we estimate the Fisher information (at redshift z = 0) of the 2PCF, LCF and their combination, regarding the cosmological parameters of the standard ΛCDM model, as well as a Warm Dark Matter (WDM) model and the f(R) and Symmetron modified gravity models. The galaxy bias is accounted for at the level of a linear bias. The relative information of the 2PCF and the LCF depends on the survey volume, sampling density (shot noise) and the bias uncertainty. For a volume of 1h^{-3}Gpc^3, sampled with points of mean density \\bar{n} = 2× 10^{-3} h3 Mpc^{-3} and a bias uncertainty of 13%, the LCF improves the parameter constraints by about 20% in the ΛCDM cosmology and potentially even more in alternative models. Finally, since a linear bias only affects the Fourier amplitudes (2PCF), but not the phases (LCF), the combination of the 2PCF and the LCF can be used to break the degeneracy between the linear bias and σ8, present in 2-point statistics.

  13. Relationship between Graduate Students' Statistics Self-Efficacy, Statistics Anxiety, Attitude toward Statistics, and Social Support

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Perepiczka, Michelle; Chandler, Nichelle; Becerra, Michael

    2011-01-01

    Statistics plays an integral role in graduate programs. However, numerous intra- and interpersonal factors may lead to successful completion of needed coursework in this area. The authors examined the extent of the relationship between self-efficacy to learn statistics and statistics anxiety, attitude towards statistics, and social support of 166…

  14. Statistical Learning in a Natural Language by 8-Month-Old Infants

    PubMed Central

    Pelucchi, Bruna; Hay, Jessica F.; Saffran, Jenny R.

    2013-01-01

    Numerous studies over the past decade support the claim that infants are equipped with powerful statistical language learning mechanisms. The primary evidence for statistical language learning in word segmentation comes from studies using artificial languages, continuous streams of synthesized syllables that are highly simplified relative to real speech. To what extent can these conclusions be scaled up to natural language learning? In the current experiments, English-learning 8-month-old infants’ ability to track transitional probabilities in fluent infant-directed Italian speech was tested (N = 72). The results suggest that infants are sensitive to transitional probability cues in unfamiliar natural language stimuli, and support the claim that statistical learning is sufficiently robust to support aspects of real-world language acquisition. PMID:19489896

  15. Statistical learning in a natural language by 8-month-old infants.

    PubMed

    Pelucchi, Bruna; Hay, Jessica F; Saffran, Jenny R

    2009-01-01

    Numerous studies over the past decade support the claim that infants are equipped with powerful statistical language learning mechanisms. The primary evidence for statistical language learning in word segmentation comes from studies using artificial languages, continuous streams of synthesized syllables that are highly simplified relative to real speech. To what extent can these conclusions be scaled up to natural language learning? In the current experiments, English-learning 8-month-old infants' ability to track transitional probabilities in fluent infant-directed Italian speech was tested (N = 72). The results suggest that infants are sensitive to transitional probability cues in unfamiliar natural language stimuli, and support the claim that statistical learning is sufficiently robust to support aspects of real-world language acquisition.

  16. Feature-Based Statistical Analysis of Combustion Simulation Data

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Bennett, J; Krishnamoorthy, V; Liu, S

    2011-11-18

    We present a new framework for feature-based statistical analysis of large-scale scientific data and demonstrate its effectiveness by analyzing features from Direct Numerical Simulations (DNS) of turbulent combustion. Turbulent flows are ubiquitous and account for transport and mixing processes in combustion, astrophysics, fusion, and climate modeling among other disciplines. They are also characterized by coherent structure or organized motion, i.e. nonlocal entities whose geometrical features can directly impact molecular mixing and reactive processes. While traditional multi-point statistics provide correlative information, they lack nonlocal structural information, and hence, fail to provide mechanistic causality information between organized fluid motion and mixing andmore » reactive processes. Hence, it is of great interest to capture and track flow features and their statistics together with their correlation with relevant scalar quantities, e.g. temperature or species concentrations. In our approach we encode the set of all possible flow features by pre-computing merge trees augmented with attributes, such as statistical moments of various scalar fields, e.g. temperature, as well as length-scales computed via spectral analysis. The computation is performed in an efficient streaming manner in a pre-processing step and results in a collection of meta-data that is orders of magnitude smaller than the original simulation data. This meta-data is sufficient to support a fully flexible and interactive analysis of the features, allowing for arbitrary thresholds, providing per-feature statistics, and creating various global diagnostics such as Cumulative Density Functions (CDFs), histograms, or time-series. We combine the analysis with a rendering of the features in a linked-view browser that enables scientists to interactively explore, visualize, and analyze the equivalent of one terabyte of simulation data. We highlight the utility of this new framework for

  17. Evaluation and application of summary statistic imputation to discover new height-associated loci.

    PubMed

    Rüeger, Sina; McDaid, Aaron; Kutalik, Zoltán

    2018-05-01

    As most of the heritability of complex traits is attributed to common and low frequency genetic variants, imputing them by combining genotyping chips and large sequenced reference panels is the most cost-effective approach to discover the genetic basis of these traits. Association summary statistics from genome-wide meta-analyses are available for hundreds of traits. Updating these to ever-increasing reference panels is very cumbersome as it requires reimputation of the genetic data, rerunning the association scan, and meta-analysing the results. A much more efficient method is to directly impute the summary statistics, termed as summary statistics imputation, which we improved to accommodate variable sample size across SNVs. Its performance relative to genotype imputation and practical utility has not yet been fully investigated. To this end, we compared the two approaches on real (genotyped and imputed) data from 120K samples from the UK Biobank and show that, genotype imputation boasts a 3- to 5-fold lower root-mean-square error, and better distinguishes true associations from null ones: We observed the largest differences in power for variants with low minor allele frequency and low imputation quality. For fixed false positive rates of 0.001, 0.01, 0.05, using summary statistics imputation yielded a decrease in statistical power by 9, 43 and 35%, respectively. To test its capacity to discover novel associations, we applied summary statistics imputation to the GIANT height meta-analysis summary statistics covering HapMap variants, and identified 34 novel loci, 19 of which replicated using data in the UK Biobank. Additionally, we successfully replicated 55 out of the 111 variants published in an exome chip study. Our study demonstrates that summary statistics imputation is a very efficient and cost-effective way to identify and fine-map trait-associated loci. Moreover, the ability to impute summary statistics is important for follow-up analyses, such as Mendelian

  18. Evaluation and application of summary statistic imputation to discover new height-associated loci

    PubMed Central

    2018-01-01

    As most of the heritability of complex traits is attributed to common and low frequency genetic variants, imputing them by combining genotyping chips and large sequenced reference panels is the most cost-effective approach to discover the genetic basis of these traits. Association summary statistics from genome-wide meta-analyses are available for hundreds of traits. Updating these to ever-increasing reference panels is very cumbersome as it requires reimputation of the genetic data, rerunning the association scan, and meta-analysing the results. A much more efficient method is to directly impute the summary statistics, termed as summary statistics imputation, which we improved to accommodate variable sample size across SNVs. Its performance relative to genotype imputation and practical utility has not yet been fully investigated. To this end, we compared the two approaches on real (genotyped and imputed) data from 120K samples from the UK Biobank and show that, genotype imputation boasts a 3- to 5-fold lower root-mean-square error, and better distinguishes true associations from null ones: We observed the largest differences in power for variants with low minor allele frequency and low imputation quality. For fixed false positive rates of 0.001, 0.01, 0.05, using summary statistics imputation yielded a decrease in statistical power by 9, 43 and 35%, respectively. To test its capacity to discover novel associations, we applied summary statistics imputation to the GIANT height meta-analysis summary statistics covering HapMap variants, and identified 34 novel loci, 19 of which replicated using data in the UK Biobank. Additionally, we successfully replicated 55 out of the 111 variants published in an exome chip study. Our study demonstrates that summary statistics imputation is a very efficient and cost-effective way to identify and fine-map trait-associated loci. Moreover, the ability to impute summary statistics is important for follow-up analyses, such as Mendelian

  19. Optimal study design with identical power: an application of power equivalence to latent growth curve models.

    PubMed

    von Oertzen, Timo; Brandmaier, Andreas M

    2013-06-01

    Structural equation models have become a broadly applied data-analytic framework. Among them, latent growth curve models have become a standard method in longitudinal research. However, researchers often rely solely on rules of thumb about statistical power in their study designs. The theory of power equivalence provides an analytical answer to the question of how design factors, for example, the number of observed indicators and the number of time points assessed in repeated measures, trade off against each other while holding the power for likelihood-ratio tests on the latent structure constant. In this article, we present applications of power-equivalent transformations on a model with data from a previously published study on cognitive aging, and highlight consequences of participant attrition on power. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

  20. New robust statistical procedures for the polytomous logistic regression models.

    PubMed

    Castilla, Elena; Ghosh, Abhik; Martin, Nirian; Pardo, Leandro

    2018-05-17

    This article derives a new family of estimators, namely the minimum density power divergence estimators, as a robust generalization of the maximum likelihood estimator for the polytomous logistic regression model. Based on these estimators, a family of Wald-type test statistics for linear hypotheses is introduced. Robustness properties of both the proposed estimators and the test statistics are theoretically studied through the classical influence function analysis. Appropriate real life examples are presented to justify the requirement of suitable robust statistical procedures in place of the likelihood based inference for the polytomous logistic regression model. The validity of the theoretical results established in the article are further confirmed empirically through suitable simulation studies. Finally, an approach for the data-driven selection of the robustness tuning parameter is proposed with empirical justifications. © 2018, The International Biometric Society.

  1. Power decreases trust in social exchange

    PubMed Central

    Schilke, Oliver; Reimann, Martin; Cook, Karen S.

    2015-01-01

    How does lacking vs. possessing power in a social exchange affect people’s trust in their exchange partner? An answer to this question has broad implications for a number of exchange settings in which dependence plays an important role. Here, we report on a series of experiments in which we manipulated participants’ power position in terms of structural dependence and observed their trust perceptions and behaviors. Over a variety of different experimental paradigms and measures, we find that more powerful actors place less trust in others than less powerful actors do. Our results contradict predictions by rational actor models, which assume that low-power individuals are able to anticipate that a more powerful exchange partner will place little value on the relationship with them, thus tends to behave opportunistically, and consequently cannot be trusted. Conversely, our results support predictions by motivated cognition theory, which posits that low-power individuals want their exchange partner to be trustworthy and then act according to that desire. Mediation analyses show that, consistent with the motivated cognition account, having low power increases individuals’ hope and, in turn, their perceptions of their exchange partners’ benevolence, which ultimately leads them to trust. PMID:26438869

  2. Power decreases trust in social exchange.

    PubMed

    Schilke, Oliver; Reimann, Martin; Cook, Karen S

    2015-10-20

    How does lacking vs. possessing power in a social exchange affect people's trust in their exchange partner? An answer to this question has broad implications for a number of exchange settings in which dependence plays an important role. Here, we report on a series of experiments in which we manipulated participants' power position in terms of structural dependence and observed their trust perceptions and behaviors. Over a variety of different experimental paradigms and measures, we find that more powerful actors place less trust in others than less powerful actors do. Our results contradict predictions by rational actor models, which assume that low-power individuals are able to anticipate that a more powerful exchange partner will place little value on the relationship with them, thus tends to behave opportunistically, and consequently cannot be trusted. Conversely, our results support predictions by motivated cognition theory, which posits that low-power individuals want their exchange partner to be trustworthy and then act according to that desire. Mediation analyses show that, consistent with the motivated cognition account, having low power increases individuals' hope and, in turn, their perceptions of their exchange partners' benevolence, which ultimately leads them to trust.

  3. Contingency and statistical laws in replicate microbial closed ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Hekstra, Doeke R; Leibler, Stanislas

    2012-05-25

    Contingency, the persistent influence of past random events, pervades biology. To what extent, then, is each course of ecological or evolutionary dynamics unique, and to what extent are these dynamics subject to a common statistical structure? Addressing this question requires replicate measurements to search for emergent statistical laws. We establish a readily replicated microbial closed ecosystem (CES), sustaining its three species for years. We precisely measure the local population density of each species in many CES replicates, started from the same initial conditions and kept under constant light and temperature. The covariation among replicates of the three species densities acquires a stable structure, which could be decomposed into discrete eigenvectors, or "ecomodes." The largest ecomode dominates population density fluctuations around the replicate-average dynamics. These fluctuations follow simple power laws consistent with a geometric random walk. Thus, variability in ecological dynamics can be studied with CES replicates and described by simple statistical laws. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Measurement invariance, the lack thereof, and modeling change.

    PubMed

    Edwards, Michael C; Houts, Carrie R; Wirth, R J

    2017-08-17

    Measurement invariance issues should be considered during test construction. In this paper, we provide a conceptual overview of measurement invariance and describe how the concept is implemented in several different statistical approaches. Typical applications look for invariance over things such as mode of administration (paper and pencil vs. computer based), language/translation, age, time, and gender, to cite just a few examples. To the extent that the relationships between items and constructs are stable/invariant, we can be more confident in score interpretations. A series of simulated examples are reported which highlight different kinds of non-invariance, the impact it can have, and the effect of appropriately modeling a lack of invariance. One example focuses on the longitudinal context, where measurement invariance is critical to understanding trends over time. Software syntax is provided to help researchers apply these models with their own data. The simulation studies demonstrate the negative impact an erroneous assumption of invariance may have on scores and substantive conclusions drawn from naively analyzing those scores. Measurement invariance implies that the links between the items and the construct of interest are invariant over some domain, grouping, or classification. Examining a new or existing test for measurement invariance should be part of any test construction/implementation plan. In addition to reviewing implications of the simulation study results, we also provide a discussion of the limitations of current approaches and areas in need of additional research.

  5. RADSS: an integration of GIS, spatial statistics, and network service for regional data mining

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, Haitang; Bao, Shuming; Lin, Hui; Zhu, Qing

    2005-10-01

    Regional data mining, which aims at the discovery of knowledge about spatial patterns, clusters or association between regions, has widely applications nowadays in social science, such as sociology, economics, epidemiology, crime, and so on. Many applications in the regional or other social sciences are more concerned with the spatial relationship, rather than the precise geographical location. Based on the spatial continuity rule derived from Tobler's first law of geography: observations at two sites tend to be more similar to each other if the sites are close together than if far apart, spatial statistics, as an important means for spatial data mining, allow the users to extract the interesting and useful information like spatial pattern, spatial structure, spatial association, spatial outlier and spatial interaction, from the vast amount of spatial data or non-spatial data. Therefore, by integrating with the spatial statistical methods, the geographical information systems will become more powerful in gaining further insights into the nature of spatial structure of regional system, and help the researchers to be more careful when selecting appropriate models. However, the lack of such tools holds back the application of spatial data analysis techniques and development of new methods and models (e.g., spatio-temporal models). Herein, we make an attempt to develop such an integrated software and apply it into the complex system analysis for the Poyang Lake Basin. This paper presents a framework for integrating GIS, spatial statistics and network service in regional data mining, as well as their implementation. After discussing the spatial statistics methods involved in regional complex system analysis, we introduce RADSS (Regional Analysis and Decision Support System), our new regional data mining tool, by integrating GIS, spatial statistics and network service. RADSS includes the functions of spatial data visualization, exploratory spatial data analysis, and

  6. Socioeconomic status, statistical confidence, and patient-provider communication: an analysis of the Health Information National Trends Survey (HINTS 2007).

    PubMed

    Smith, Samuel G; Wolf, Michael S; von Wagner, Christian

    2010-01-01

    The increasing trend of exposing patients seeking health advice to numerical information has the potential to adversely impact patient-provider relationships especially among individuals with low literacy and numeracy skills. We used the HINTS 2007 to provide the first large scale study linking statistical confidence (as a marker of subjective numeracy) to demographic variables and a health-related outcome (in this case the quality of patient-provider interactions). A cohort of 7,674 individuals answered sociodemographic questions, a question on how confident they were in understanding medical statistics, a question on preferences for words or numbers in risk communication, and a measure of patient-provider interaction quality. Over thirty-seven percent (37.4%) of individuals lacked confidence in their ability to understand medical statistics. This was particularly prevalent among the elderly, low income, low education, and non-White ethnic minority groups. Individuals who lacked statistical confidence demonstrated clear preferences for having risk-based information presented with words rather than numbers and were 67% more likely to experience a poor patient-provider interaction, after controlling for gender, ethnicity, insurance status, the presence of a regular health care professional, and the language of the telephone interview. We will discuss the implications of our findings for health care professionals.

  7. Multivariate statistical analysis: Principles and applications to coorbital streams of meteorite falls

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wolf, S. F.; Lipschutz, M. E.

    1993-01-01

    Multivariate statistical analysis techniques (linear discriminant analysis and logistic regression) can provide powerful discrimination tools which are generally unfamiliar to the planetary science community. Fall parameters were used to identify a group of 17 H chondrites (Cluster 1) that were part of a coorbital stream which intersected Earth's orbit in May, from 1855 - 1895, and can be distinguished from all other H chondrite falls. Using multivariate statistical techniques, it was demonstrated that a totally different criterion, labile trace element contents - hence thermal histories - or 13 Cluster 1 meteorites are distinguishable from those of 45 non-Cluster 1 H chondrites. Here, we focus upon the principles of multivariate statistical techniques and illustrate their application using non-meteoritic and meteoritic examples.

  8. Improved techniques for predicting spacecraft power

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chmielewski, A. B.

    1987-01-01

    Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generators (RTGs) are going to supply power for the NASA Galileo and Ulysses spacecraft now scheduled to be launched in 1989 and 1990. The duration of the Galileo mission is expected to be over 8 years. This brings the total RTG lifetime to 13 years. In 13 years, the RTG power drops more than 20 percent leaving a very small power margin over what is consumed by the spacecraft. Thus it is very important to accurately predict the RTG performance and be able to assess the magnitude of errors involved. The paper lists all the error sources involved in the RTG power predictions and describes a statistical method for calculating the tolerance.

  9. Local multiplicity adjustment for the spatial scan statistic using the Gumbel distribution.

    PubMed

    Gangnon, Ronald E

    2012-03-01

    The spatial scan statistic is an important and widely used tool for cluster detection. It is based on the simultaneous evaluation of the statistical significance of the maximum likelihood ratio test statistic over a large collection of potential clusters. In most cluster detection problems, there is variation in the extent of local multiplicity across the study region. For example, using a fixed maximum geographic radius for clusters, urban areas typically have many overlapping potential clusters, whereas rural areas have relatively few. The spatial scan statistic does not account for local multiplicity variation. We describe a previously proposed local multiplicity adjustment based on a nested Bonferroni correction and propose a novel adjustment based on a Gumbel distribution approximation to the distribution of a local scan statistic. We compare the performance of all three statistics in terms of power and a novel unbiased cluster detection criterion. These methods are then applied to the well-known New York leukemia dataset and a Wisconsin breast cancer incidence dataset. © 2011, The International Biometric Society.

  10. Low power and type II errors in recent ophthalmology research.

    PubMed

    Khan, Zainab; Milko, Jordan; Iqbal, Munir; Masri, Moness; Almeida, David R P

    2016-10-01

    To investigate the power of unpaired t tests in prospective, randomized controlled trials when these tests failed to detect a statistically significant difference and to determine the frequency of type II errors. Systematic review and meta-analysis. We examined all prospective, randomized controlled trials published between 2010 and 2012 in 4 major ophthalmology journals (Archives of Ophthalmology, British Journal of Ophthalmology, Ophthalmology, and American Journal of Ophthalmology). Studies that used unpaired t tests were included. Power was calculated using the number of subjects in each group, standard deviations, and α = 0.05. The difference between control and experimental means was set to be (1) 20% and (2) 50% of the absolute value of the control's initial conditions. Power and Precision version 4.0 software was used to carry out calculations. Finally, the proportion of articles with type II errors was calculated. β = 0.3 was set as the largest acceptable value for the probability of type II errors. In total, 280 articles were screened. Final analysis included 50 prospective, randomized controlled trials using unpaired t tests. The median power of tests to detect a 50% difference between means was 0.9 and was the same for all 4 journals regardless of the statistical significance of the test. The median power of tests to detect a 20% difference between means ranged from 0.26 to 0.9 for the 4 journals. The median power of these tests to detect a 50% and 20% difference between means was 0.9 and 0.5 for tests that did not achieve statistical significance. A total of 14% and 57% of articles with negative unpaired t tests contained results with β > 0.3 when power was calculated for differences between means of 50% and 20%, respectively. A large portion of studies demonstrate high probabilities of type II errors when detecting small differences between means. The power to detect small difference between means varies across journals. It is, therefore

  11. Statistical Patterns in Natural Lightning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zoghzoghy, F. G.; Cohen, M.; Said, R.; Inan, U. S.

    2011-12-01

    Every day millions of lightning flashes occur around the globe but the understanding of this natural phenomenon is still lacking. Fundamentally, lightning is nature's way of destroying charge separation in clouds and restoring electric neutrality. Thus, statistical patterns of lightning activity indicate the scope of these electric discharges and offer a surrogate measure of timescales for charge buildup in thunderclouds. We present a statistical method to investigate spatio-temporal correlations among lightning flashes using National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) stroke data. By monitoring the distribution of lightning activity, we can observe the charging and discharging processes in a given thunderstorm. In particular, within a given storm, the flashes do not occur as a memoryless random process. We introduce the No Flash Zone (NFZ) which results from the suppressed probability of two consecutive neighboring flashes. This effect lasts for tens of seconds and can extend up to 15 km around the location of the initial flash, decaying with time. This suppression effect may be a function of variables such as storm location, storm phase, and stroke peak current. We develop a clustering algorithm, Storm-Locator, which groups strokes into flashes, storm cells, and thunderstorms, and enables us to study lightning and the NFZ in different geographical regions, and for different storms. The recursive algorithm also helps monitor the interaction among spatially displaced storm cells, and can provide more insight into the spatial and temporal impacts of lightning discharges.

  12. Non-resonant multipactor--A statistical model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rasch, J.; Johansson, J. F.

    2012-12-01

    High power microwave systems operating in vacuum or near vacuum run the risk of multipactor breakdown. In order to avoid multipactor, it is necessary to make theoretical predictions of critical parameter combinations. These treatments are generally based on the assumption of electrons moving in resonance with the electric field while traversing the gap between critical surfaces. Through comparison with experiments, it has been found that only for small system dimensions will the resonant approach give correct predictions. Apparently, the resonance is destroyed due to the statistical spread in electron emission velocity, and for a more valid description it is necessary to resort to rather complicated statistical treatments of the electron population, and extensive simulations. However, in the limit where resonance is completely destroyed it is possible to use a much simpler treatment, here called non-resonant theory. In this paper, we develop the formalism for this theory, use it to calculate universal curves for the existence of multipactor, and compare with previous results. Two important effects that leads to an increase in the multipactor threshold in comparison with the resonant prediction are identified. These are the statistical spread of impact speed, which leads to a lower average electron impact speed, and the impact of electrons in phase regions where the secondary electrons are immediately reabsorbed, leading to an effective removal of electrons from the discharge.

  13. Non-resonant multipactor-A statistical model

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Rasch, J.; Johansson, J. F.

    2012-12-15

    High power microwave systems operating in vacuum or near vacuum run the risk of multipactor breakdown. In order to avoid multipactor, it is necessary to make theoretical predictions of critical parameter combinations. These treatments are generally based on the assumption of electrons moving in resonance with the electric field while traversing the gap between critical surfaces. Through comparison with experiments, it has been found that only for small system dimensions will the resonant approach give correct predictions. Apparently, the resonance is destroyed due to the statistical spread in electron emission velocity, and for a more valid description it is necessarymore » to resort to rather complicated statistical treatments of the electron population, and extensive simulations. However, in the limit where resonance is completely destroyed it is possible to use a much simpler treatment, here called non-resonant theory. In this paper, we develop the formalism for this theory, use it to calculate universal curves for the existence of multipactor, and compare with previous results. Two important effects that leads to an increase in the multipactor threshold in comparison with the resonant prediction are identified. These are the statistical spread of impact speed, which leads to a lower average electron impact speed, and the impact of electrons in phase regions where the secondary electrons are immediately reabsorbed, leading to an effective removal of electrons from the discharge.« less

  14. Electric Power Monthly, August 1990. [Glossary included

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Not Available

    1990-11-29

    The Electric Power Monthly (EPM) presents monthly summaries of electric utility statistics at the national, Census division, and State level. The purpose of this publication is to provide energy decisionmakers with accurate and timely information that may be used in forming various perspectives on electric issues that lie ahead. Data includes generation by energy source (coal, oil, gas, hydroelectric, and nuclear); generation by region; consumption of fossil fuels for power generation; sales of electric power, cost data; and unusual occurrences. A glossary is included.

  15. Virial Coefficients from Unified Statistical Thermodynamics of Quantum Gases Trapped under Generic Power Law Potential in d Dimension and Equivalence of Quantum Gases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bahauddin, Shah Mohammad; Mehedi Faruk, Mir

    2016-09-01

    From the unified statistical thermodynamics of quantum gases, the virial coefficients of ideal Bose and Fermi gases, trapped under generic power law potential are derived systematically. From the general result of virial coefficients, one can produce the known results in d = 3 and d = 2. But more importantly we found that, the virial coefficients of Bose and Fermi gases become identical (except the second virial coefficient, where the sign is different) when the gases are trapped under harmonic potential in d = 1. This result suggests the equivalence between Bose and Fermi gases established in d = 1 (J. Stat. Phys. DOI 10.1007/s10955-015-1344-4). Also, it is found that the virial coefficients of two-dimensional free Bose (Fermi) gas are equal to the virial coefficients of one-dimensional harmonically trapped Bose (Fermi) gas.

  16. Power availability at terrestrial receptor sites for laser-power transmission from the satellite power system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Beverly, R. E., III

    1982-01-01

    A statistical model was developed for relating the temporal transmission parameters of a laser beam from a solar power satellite to observable meteorological data to determine the influence of weather on power reception at the earth-based receiver. Sites within 100 miles of existing high voltage transmission lines were examined and the model was developed for clear-sky and clouded conditions. The cases of total transmission through clouds at certain wavelengths, no transmission, and partial transmission were calculated for the cloud portion of the model. The study covered cirriform, stratiform, cumiliform, and mixed type clouds and the possibility of boring holes through the clouds with the beam. Utilization of weapons-quality beams for hole boring, was found to yield power availability increases of 9-33%, although no beneficial effects could be predicted in regions of persistent cloud cover. An efficiency of 80% was determined as possible if several receptor sites were available within 200-300 miles of each other, thereby allowing changes of reception point in cases of unacceptable meteorological conditions.

  17. Why Tsallis statistics?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baranger, Michel

    2002-03-01

    It is a remarkable fact that the traditional teaching of thermodynamics, as reflected in the textbooks and including the long developments about ensembles and thermodynamic functions, is almost entirely about systems in equilibrium. The time variable does not enter. There is one exception, however. The single most important item, the flagship of the thermodynamic navy, the second law, is about the irreversibility of the time evolution of systems out of equilibrium. This is a bizarre situation, to say the least; a glaring case of the drunk man looking for his key under the lamp-post, when he knows that he lost it in the dark part of the street. The moment has come for us to go looking in the dark part, the behavior of systems as a function of time. We have been given a powerful new flashlight, chaos theory. We should use it. There, on the formerly dark pavement, we can find Tsallis statistics.

  18. Statistical significance of task related deep brain EEG dynamic changes in the time-frequency domain.

    PubMed

    Chládek, J; Brázdil, M; Halámek, J; Plešinger, F; Jurák, P

    2013-01-01

    We present an off-line analysis procedure for exploring brain activity recorded from intra-cerebral electroencephalographic data (SEEG). The objective is to determine the statistical differences between different types of stimulations in the time-frequency domain. The procedure is based on computing relative signal power change and subsequent statistical analysis. An example of characteristic statistically significant event-related de/synchronization (ERD/ERS) detected across different frequency bands following different oddball stimuli is presented. The method is used for off-line functional classification of different brain areas.

  19. Investigating the Investigative Task: Testing for Skewness--An Investigation of Different Test Statistics and Their Power to Detect Skewness

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tabor, Josh

    2010-01-01

    On the 2009 AP[c] Statistics Exam, students were asked to create a statistic to measure skewness in a distribution. This paper explores several of the most popular student responses and evaluates which statistic performs best when sampling from various skewed populations. (Contains 8 figures, 3 tables, and 4 footnotes.)

  20. The imprint of f(R) gravity on weak gravitational lensing - II. Information content in cosmic shear statistics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shirasaki, Masato; Nishimichi, Takahiro; Li, Baojiu; Higuchi, Yuichi

    2017-04-01

    We investigate the information content of various cosmic shear statistics on the theory of gravity. Focusing on the Hu-Sawicki-type f(R) model, we perform a set of ray-tracing simulations and measure the convergence bispectrum, peak counts and Minkowski functionals. We first show that while the convergence power spectrum does have sensitivity to the current value of extra scalar degree of freedom |fR0|, it is largely compensated by a change in the present density amplitude parameter σ8 and the matter density parameter Ωm0. With accurate covariance matrices obtained from 1000 lensing simulations, we then examine the constraining power of the three additional statistics. We find that these probes are indeed helpful to break the parameter degeneracy, which cannot be resolved from the power spectrum alone. We show that especially the peak counts and Minkowski functionals have the potential to rigorously (marginally) detect the signature of modified gravity with the parameter |fR0| as small as 10-5 (10-6) if we can properly model them on small (˜1 arcmin) scale in a future survey with a sky coverage of 1500 deg2. We also show that the signal level is similar among the additional three statistics and all of them provide complementary information to the power spectrum. These findings indicate the importance of combining multiple probes beyond the standard power spectrum analysis to detect possible modifications to general relativity.

  1. Are there pollination syndromes in the Australian epacrids (Ericaceae: Styphelioideae)? A novel statistical method to identify key floral traits per syndrome

    PubMed Central

    Johnson, Karen A.

    2013-01-01

    Background and Aims Convergent floral traits hypothesized as attracting particular pollinators are known as pollination syndromes. Floral diversity suggests that the Australian epacrid flora may be adapted to pollinator type. Currently there are empirical data on the pollination systems for 87 species (approx. 15 % of Australian epacrids). This provides an opportunity to test for pollination syndromes and their important morphological traits in an iconic element of the Australian flora. Methods Data on epacrid–pollinator relationships were obtained from published literature and field observation. A multivariate approach was used to test whether epacrid floral attributes related to pollinator profiles. Statistical classification was then used to rank floral attributes according to their predictive value. Data sets excluding mixed pollination systems were used to test the predictive power of statistical classification to identify pollination models. Key Results Floral attributes are correlated with bird, fly and bee pollination. Using floral attributes identified as correlating with pollinator type, bird pollination is classified with 86 % accuracy, red flowers being the most important predictor. Fly and bee pollination are classified with 78 and 69 % accuracy, but have a lack of individually important floral predictors. Excluding mixed pollination systems improved the accuracy of the prediction of both bee and fly pollination systems. Conclusions Although most epacrids have generalized pollination systems, a correlation between bird pollination and red, long-tubed epacrids is found. Statistical classification highlights the relative importance of each floral attribute in relation to pollinator type and proves useful in classifying epacrids to bird, fly and bee pollination systems. PMID:23681546

  2. A General Class of Test Statistics for Van Valen's Red Queen Hypothesis.

    PubMed

    Wiltshire, Jelani; Huffer, Fred W; Parker, William C

    2014-09-01

    Van Valen's Red Queen hypothesis states that within a homogeneous taxonomic group the age is statistically independent of the rate of extinction. The case of the Red Queen hypothesis being addressed here is when the homogeneous taxonomic group is a group of similar species. Since Van Valen's work, various statistical approaches have been used to address the relationship between taxon age and the rate of extinction. We propose a general class of test statistics that can be used to test for the effect of age on the rate of extinction. These test statistics allow for a varying background rate of extinction and attempt to remove the effects of other covariates when assessing the effect of age on extinction. No model is assumed for the covariate effects. Instead we control for covariate effects by pairing or grouping together similar species. Simulations are used to compare the power of the statistics. We apply the test statistics to data on Foram extinctions and find that age has a positive effect on the rate of extinction. A derivation of the null distribution of one of the test statistics is provided in the supplementary material.

  3. Controversy in the allometric application of fixed- versus varying-exponent models: a statistical and mathematical perspective.

    PubMed

    Tang, Huadong; Hussain, Azher; Leal, Mauricio; Fluhler, Eric; Mayersohn, Michael

    2011-02-01

    This commentary is a reply to a recent article by Mahmood commenting on the authors' article on the use of fixed-exponent allometry in predicting human clearance. The commentary discusses eight issues that are related to criticisms made in Mahmood's article and examines the controversies (fixed-exponent vs. varying-exponent allometry) from the perspective of statistics and mathematics. The key conclusion is that any allometric method, which is to establish a power function based on a limited number of animal species and to extrapolate the resulting power function to human values (varying-exponent allometry), is infused with fundamental statistical errors. Copyright © 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  4. Sparse approximation of currents for statistics on curves and surfaces.

    PubMed

    Durrleman, Stanley; Pennec, Xavier; Trouvé, Alain; Ayache, Nicholas

    2008-01-01

    Computing, processing, visualizing statistics on shapes like curves or surfaces is a real challenge with many applications ranging from medical image analysis to computational geometry. Modelling such geometrical primitives with currents avoids feature-based approach as well as point-correspondence method. This framework has been proved to be powerful to register brain surfaces or to measure geometrical invariants. However, if the state-of-the-art methods perform efficiently pairwise registrations, new numerical schemes are required to process groupwise statistics due to an increasing complexity when the size of the database is growing. Statistics such as mean and principal modes of a set of shapes often have a heavy and highly redundant representation. We propose therefore to find an adapted basis on which mean and principal modes have a sparse decomposition. Besides the computational improvement, this sparse representation offers a way to visualize and interpret statistics on currents. Experiments show the relevance of the approach on 34 sets of 70 sulcal lines and on 50 sets of 10 meshes of deep brain structures.

  5. Statistics of a neuron model driven by asymmetric colored noise.

    PubMed

    Müller-Hansen, Finn; Droste, Felix; Lindner, Benjamin

    2015-02-01

    Irregular firing of neurons can be modeled as a stochastic process. Here we study the perfect integrate-and-fire neuron driven by dichotomous noise, a Markovian process that jumps between two states (i.e., possesses a non-Gaussian statistics) and exhibits nonvanishing temporal correlations (i.e., represents a colored noise). Specifically, we consider asymmetric dichotomous noise with two different transition rates. Using a first-passage-time formulation, we derive exact expressions for the probability density and the serial correlation coefficient of the interspike interval (time interval between two subsequent neural action potentials) and the power spectrum of the spike train. Furthermore, we extend the model by including additional Gaussian white noise, and we give approximations for the interspike interval (ISI) statistics in this case. Numerical simulations are used to validate the exact analytical results for pure dichotomous noise, and to test the approximations of the ISI statistics when Gaussian white noise is included. The results may help to understand how correlations and asymmetry of noise and signals in nerve cells shape neuronal firing statistics.

  6. Are Assumptions of Well-Known Statistical Techniques Checked, and Why (Not)?

    PubMed Central

    Hoekstra, Rink; Kiers, Henk A. L.; Johnson, Addie

    2012-01-01

    A valid interpretation of most statistical techniques requires that one or more assumptions be met. In published articles, however, little information tends to be reported on whether the data satisfy the assumptions underlying the statistical techniques used. This could be due to self-selection: Only manuscripts with data fulfilling the assumptions are submitted. Another explanation could be that violations of assumptions are rarely checked for in the first place. We studied whether and how 30 researchers checked fictitious data for violations of assumptions in their own working environment. Participants were asked to analyze the data as they would their own data, for which often used and well-known techniques such as the t-procedure, ANOVA and regression (or non-parametric alternatives) were required. It was found that the assumptions of the techniques were rarely checked, and that if they were, it was regularly by means of a statistical test. Interviews afterward revealed a general lack of knowledge about assumptions, the robustness of the techniques with regards to the assumptions, and how (or whether) assumptions should be checked. These data suggest that checking for violations of assumptions is not a well-considered choice, and that the use of statistics can be described as opportunistic. PMID:22593746

  7. Test Statistics and Confidence Intervals to Establish Noninferiority between Treatments with Ordinal Categorical Data.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Fanghong; Miyaoka, Etsuo; Huang, Fuping; Tanaka, Yutaka

    2015-01-01

    The problem for establishing noninferiority is discussed between a new treatment and a standard (control) treatment with ordinal categorical data. A measure of treatment effect is used and a method of specifying noninferiority margin for the measure is provided. Two Z-type test statistics are proposed where the estimation of variance is constructed under the shifted null hypothesis using U-statistics. Furthermore, the confidence interval and the sample size formula are given based on the proposed test statistics. The proposed procedure is applied to a dataset from a clinical trial. A simulation study is conducted to compare the performance of the proposed test statistics with that of the existing ones, and the results show that the proposed test statistics are better in terms of the deviation from nominal level and the power.

  8. Accurately Characterizing the Importance of Wave-Particle Interactions in Radiation Belt Dynamics: The Pitfalls of Statistical Wave Representations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Murphy, Kyle R.; Mann, Ian R.; Rae, I. Jonathan; Sibeck, David G.; Watt, Clare E. J.

    2016-01-01

    Wave-particle interactions play a crucial role in energetic particle dynamics in the Earths radiation belts. However, the relative importance of different wave modes in these dynamics is poorly understood. Typically, this is assessed during geomagnetic storms using statistically averaged empirical wave models as a function of geomagnetic activity in advanced radiation belt simulations. However, statistical averages poorly characterize extreme events such as geomagnetic storms in that storm-time ultralow frequency wave power is typically larger than that derived over a solar cycle and Kp is a poor proxy for storm-time wave power.

  9. Statistics Anxiety and Business Statistics: The International Student

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bell, James A.

    2008-01-01

    Does the international student suffer from statistics anxiety? To investigate this, the Statistics Anxiety Rating Scale (STARS) was administered to sixty-six beginning statistics students, including twelve international students and fifty-four domestic students. Due to the small number of international students, nonparametric methods were used to…

  10. Multivariate two-part statistics for analysis of correlated mass spectrometry data from multiple biological specimens.

    PubMed

    Taylor, Sandra L; Ruhaak, L Renee; Weiss, Robert H; Kelly, Karen; Kim, Kyoungmi

    2017-01-01

    High through-put mass spectrometry (MS) is now being used to profile small molecular compounds across multiple biological sample types from the same subjects with the goal of leveraging information across biospecimens. Multivariate statistical methods that combine information from all biospecimens could be more powerful than the usual univariate analyses. However, missing values are common in MS data and imputation can impact between-biospecimen correlation and multivariate analysis results. We propose two multivariate two-part statistics that accommodate missing values and combine data from all biospecimens to identify differentially regulated compounds. Statistical significance is determined using a multivariate permutation null distribution. Relative to univariate tests, the multivariate procedures detected more significant compounds in three biological datasets. In a simulation study, we showed that multi-biospecimen testing procedures were more powerful than single-biospecimen methods when compounds are differentially regulated in multiple biospecimens but univariate methods can be more powerful if compounds are differentially regulated in only one biospecimen. We provide R functions to implement and illustrate our method as supplementary information CONTACT: sltaylor@ucdavis.eduSupplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  11. Vibroacoustic optimization using a statistical energy analysis model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Culla, Antonio; D`Ambrogio, Walter; Fregolent, Annalisa; Milana, Silvia

    2016-08-01

    In this paper, an optimization technique for medium-high frequency dynamic problems based on Statistical Energy Analysis (SEA) method is presented. Using a SEA model, the subsystem energies are controlled by internal loss factors (ILF) and coupling loss factors (CLF), which in turn depend on the physical parameters of the subsystems. A preliminary sensitivity analysis of subsystem energy to CLF's is performed to select CLF's that are most effective on subsystem energies. Since the injected power depends not only on the external loads but on the physical parameters of the subsystems as well, it must be taken into account under certain conditions. This is accomplished in the optimization procedure, where approximate relationships between CLF's, injected power and physical parameters are derived. The approach is applied on a typical aeronautical structure: the cabin of a helicopter.

  12. Statistical detection of patterns in unidimensional distributions by continuous wavelet transforms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baluev, R. V.

    2018-04-01

    Objective detection of specific patterns in statistical distributions, like groupings or gaps or abrupt transitions between different subsets, is a task with a rich range of applications in astronomy: Milky Way stellar population analysis, investigations of the exoplanets diversity, Solar System minor bodies statistics, extragalactic studies, etc. We adapt the powerful technique of the wavelet transforms to this generalized task, making a strong emphasis on the assessment of the patterns detection significance. Among other things, our method also involves optimal minimum-noise wavelets and minimum-noise reconstruction of the distribution density function. Based on this development, we construct a self-closed algorithmic pipeline aimed to process statistical samples. It is currently applicable to single-dimensional distributions only, but it is flexible enough to undergo further generalizations and development.

  13. Statistical Power in Evaluations That Investigate Effects on Multiple Outcomes: A Guide for Researchers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Porter, Kristin E.

    2018-01-01

    Researchers are often interested in testing the effectiveness of an intervention on multiple outcomes, for multiple subgroups, at multiple points in time, or across multiple treatment groups. The resulting multiplicity of statistical hypothesis tests can lead to spurious findings of effects. Multiple testing procedures (MTPs) are statistical…

  14. Mapping Spatial Distributions of Stream Power and Channel Change along a Gravel-Bed River in Northern Yellowstone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lea, D. M.; Legleiter, C. J.

    2014-12-01

    Stream power represents the rate of energy expenditure along a river and can be calculated using topographic data acquired via remote sensing. This study used remotely sensed data and field measurements to quantitatively relate temporal changes in the form of Soda Butte Creek, a gravel-bed river in northeastern Yellowstone National Park, to stream power gradients along an 8 km reach. Aerial photographs from 1994-2012 and cross-section surveys were used to assess lateral channel mobility and develop a morphologic sediment budget for quantifying net sediment flux for a series of budget cells. A drainage area-to-discharge relationship and digital elevation model (DEM) developed from LiDAR data were used to obtain the discharge and slope values, respectively, needed to calculate stream power. Local and lagged relationships between mean stream power gradient at median peak discharge and volumes of erosion, deposition, and net sediment flux were quantified via spatial cross-correlation analyses. Similarly, autocorrelations of locational probabilities and sediment fluxes were used to examine spatial patterns of channel mobility and sediment transfer. Energy expended above critical stream power was calculated for each time period to relate the magnitude and duration of peak flows to the total volume of sediment eroded or deposited during each time increment. Our results indicated a lack of strong correlation between stream power gradients and sediment flux, which we attributed to the geomorphic complexity of the Soda Butte Creek watershed and the inability of our relatively simple statistical approach to link sediment dynamics expressed at a sub-budget cell scale to larger-scale driving forces such as stream power gradients. Future studies should compare the moderate spatial resolution techniques used in this study to very-high resolution data acquired from new fluvial remote sensing technologies to better understand the amount of error associated with stream power

  15. Mapping spatial patterns of stream power and channel change along a gravel-bed river in northern Yellowstone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lea, Devin M.

    Stream power represents the rate of energy expenditure along a river and can be calculated using topographic data acquired via remote sensing or field surveys. This study used remote sensing and GIS tools along with field data to quantitatively relate temporal changes in the form of Soda Butte Creek, a gravel-bed river in northeastern Yellowstone National Park, to stream power gradients along an 8 km reach. Aerial photographs from 1994-2012 and cross-section surveys were used to develop a locational probability map and morphologic sediment budget to assess lateral channel mobility and changes in net sediment flux. A drainage area-to-discharge relationship and digital elevation model (DEM) developed from light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data were used to obtain the discharge and slope values needed to calculate stream power. Local and lagged relationships between mean stream power gradient at median peak discharge and volumes of erosion, deposition, and net sediment flux were quantified via spatial cross-correlation analyses. Similarly, autocorrelations of locational probabilities and sediment fluxes were used to examine spatial patterns of sediment sources and sinks. Energy expended above critical stream power was calculated for each time period to relate the magnitude and duration of peak flows to the total volumetric change in each time increment. Results indicated a lack of strong correlation between stream power gradients and sediment response, highlighting the geomorphic complexity of Soda Butte Creek and the inability of relatively simple statistical approaches to link sub-budget cell-scale sediment dynamics to larger-scale driving forces such as stream power gradients. Improving the moderate spatial resolution techniques used in this study and acquiring very-high resolution data from recently developed methods in fluvial remote sensing could help improve understanding of the spatial organization of stream power, sediment transport, and channel change in

  16. Homeostasis and Gauss statistics: barriers to understanding natural variability.

    PubMed

    West, Bruce J

    2010-06-01

    In this paper, the concept of knowledge is argued to be the top of a three-tiered system of science. The first tier is that of measurement and data, followed by information consisting of the patterns within the data, and ending with theory that interprets the patterns and yields knowledge. Thus, when a scientific theory ceases to be consistent with the database the knowledge based on that theory must be re-examined and potentially modified. Consequently, all knowledge, like glory, is transient. Herein we focus on the non-normal statistics of physiologic time series and conclude that the empirical inverse power-law statistics and long-time correlations are inconsistent with the theoretical notion of homeostasis. We suggest replacing the notion of homeostasis with that of Fractal Physiology.

  17. Reporting of numerical and statistical differences in abstracts: improving but not optimal.

    PubMed

    Dryver, Eric; Hux, Janet E

    2002-03-01

    The reporting of relative risk reductions (RRRs) or absolute risk reductions (ARRs) to quantify binary outcomes in trials engenders differing perceptions of therapeutic efficacy, and the merits of P values versus confidence intervals (CIs) are also controversial. We describe the manner in which numerical and statistical difference in treatment outcomes is presented in published abstracts. A descriptive study of abstracts published in 1986 and 1996 in 8 general medical and specialty journals. controlled, intervention trials with a binary primary or secondary outcome. Seven items were recorded: raw data (outcomes for each treatment arm), measure of relative difference (e.g., RRR), ARR, number needed to treat, P value, CI, and verbal statement of statistical significance. The prevalence of these items was compared between journals and across time. Of 5,293 abstracts, 300 met the inclusion criteria. In 1986, 60% of abstracts did not provide both the raw data and a corresponding P value or CI, while 28% failed to do so in 1Dr. Hux is a Career Scientist of the Ontario Ministry of Health and receives salary support from the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences in Ontario.996 ( P <.001; RRR of 53%; ARR of 32%; CI for ARR 21% to 43%). The variability between journals was highly significant ( P <.001). In 1986, 100% of abstracts lacked a measure of absolute difference while 88% of 1996 abstracts did so ( P <.001). In 1986, 98% of abstracts lacked a CI while 65% of 1996 abstracts did so ( P <.001). The provision of quantitative outcome and statistical quantitative information has significantly increased between 1986 and 1996. However, further progress can be made to make abstracts more informative.

  18. Lack of genotoxicity in medical oncology nurses handling antineoplastic drugs: effect of work environment and protective equipment.

    PubMed

    Gulten, Tuna; Evke, Elif; Ercan, Ilker; Evrensel, Turkkan; Kurt, Ender; Manavoglu, Osman

    2011-01-01

    In this study we aimed to investigate the genotoxic effects of antineoplastic agents in occupationally exposed oncology nurses. Genotoxic effects mean the disruptive effects in the integrity of DNA and they are associated with cancer development. Biomonitoring of health care workers handling antineoplastic agents is helpful for the evaluation of exposure to cytostatics. The study included an exposed and two control groups. The exposed group (n=9) was comprised of oncology nurses. The first (n=9) and second (n=10) control groups were comprised of subjects who did not come into contact with antineoplastic drugs working respectively in the same department with oncology nurses and in different departments. Genotoxicity evaluation was performed using SCE analysis. After applying culture, harvest and chromosome staining procedures, a total of 25 metaphases were analyzed per person. Kruskal Wallis test was used to perform statistical analysis. A statistically significant difference of sister chromatid exchange frequencies was not observed between the exposed and control groups. Lack of genotoxicity in medical oncology nurses might be due to good working conditions with high standards of technical equipment and improved personal protection.

  19. Architectural innovation foresight of thermoelectric generator charger integrated portable power supply for portable consumer electronic device in metropolitan market: The case study of Thailand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maolikul, S.; Kiatgamolchai, S.; Chavarnakul, T.

    2012-06-01

    In the context of information and communication technology (ICT) trend for worldwide individuals, social life becomes digital and portable consumer electronic devices (PCED) powered by conventional power supply from batteries have been evolving through miniaturization and various function integration. Thermoelectric generators (TEG) were hypothesized for its potential role of battery charger to serve the shining PCED market. Hence, this paper, mainly focusing at the metropolitan market in Thailand, aimed to conduct architectural innovation foresight and to develop scenarios on potential exploitation approach of PCED battery power supply with TEG charger converting power from ambient heat source adjacent to individual's daily life. After technical review and assessment for TEG potential and battery aspect, the business research was conducted to analyze PCED consumer behavior for their PCED utilization pattern, power supply lack problems, and encountering heat sources/sinks in 3 modes: daily life, work, and leisure hobbies. Based on the secondary data analysis from literature and National Statistical Office of Thailand, quantitative analysis was applied using the cluster probability sampling methodology, statistically, with the sample size of 400 at 0.05 level of significance. In addition, the qualitative analysis was conducted to emphasize the rationale of consumer's behavior using in-depth qualitative interview. Scenario planning technique was also used to generate technological and market trend foresight. Innovation field and potential scenario for matching technology with market was proposed in this paper. The ingredient for successful commercialization of battery power supply with TEG charger for PCED market consists of 5 factors as follows: (1) PCED characteristic, (2) potential ambient heat sources/sinks, (3) battery module, (4) power management module, and the final jigsaw (5) characteristic and adequate arrangement of TEG modules. The foresight outcome for

  20. Common pitfalls in statistical analysis: Clinical versus statistical significance

    PubMed Central

    Ranganathan, Priya; Pramesh, C. S.; Buyse, Marc

    2015-01-01

    In clinical research, study results, which are statistically significant are often interpreted as being clinically important. While statistical significance indicates the reliability of the study results, clinical significance reflects its impact on clinical practice. The third article in this series exploring pitfalls in statistical analysis clarifies the importance of differentiating between statistical significance and clinical significance. PMID:26229754