Sample records for lake level rise

  1. Rapid rise of water level for Tibetan lakes: an analysis of the relation with climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Song, C.; Huang, B.

    2013-12-01

    growth rates than lakes with larger supply coefficients, which confirms that the rapid lake growth was more related with the precipitation increase rather than the glacial melting. (2) All 14 super-large lakes located in four different climate sub-zones showed a sharp water-level increase during 1995 ~ 2011 from the LEGOS (multiple radar altimetry data sets), but the timing of accelerated growth for lakes in different sub-zones is spatially heterogeneous. The abrupt change points of water level time series match very well with the years of more precipitation. For example, the water level of Lake Qinghai and Ngoring Co on the northeast TP declined in late-1990s and early-2000s, and had a sudden rise in 2004/2005 before keeping a slight increasing trend, which is in good agreement with the precipitation change in this region. The lakes in central Tibet, including Namco and Silingco, showed the earliest accelerated water level growth (since 1996/1997) due to more advanced increasing tendency of precipitation than other regions. In the contrast, temperature showed rapid rising trend in late 1980s and early 1990s which do not coincide with the timing of lake expansion. Thus, the glacier melting is probably not the primary factor of accelerated lake growth on the TP.

  2. Rising CO2 Levels Will Intensify Phytoplankton Blooms in Eutrophic and Hypertrophic Lakes

    PubMed Central

    Verspagen, Jolanda M. H.; Van de Waal, Dedmer B.; Finke, Jan F.; Visser, Petra M.; Van Donk, Ellen; Huisman, Jef

    2014-01-01

    Harmful algal blooms threaten the water quality of many eutrophic and hypertrophic lakes and cause severe ecological and economic damage worldwide. Dense blooms often deplete the dissolved CO2 concentration and raise pH. Yet, quantitative prediction of the feedbacks between phytoplankton growth, CO2 drawdown and the inorganic carbon chemistry of aquatic ecosystems has received surprisingly little attention. Here, we develop a mathematical model to predict dynamic changes in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), pH and alkalinity during phytoplankton bloom development. We tested the model in chemostat experiments with the freshwater cyanobacterium Microcystis aeruginosa at different CO2 levels. The experiments showed that dense blooms sequestered large amounts of atmospheric CO2, not only by their own biomass production but also by inducing a high pH and alkalinity that enhanced the capacity for DIC storage in the system. We used the model to explore how phytoplankton blooms of eutrophic waters will respond to rising CO2 levels. The model predicts that (1) dense phytoplankton blooms in low- and moderately alkaline waters can deplete the dissolved CO2 concentration to limiting levels and raise the pH over a relatively wide range of atmospheric CO2 conditions, (2) rising atmospheric CO2 levels will enhance phytoplankton blooms in low- and moderately alkaline waters with high nutrient loads, and (3) above some threshold, rising atmospheric CO2 will alleviate phytoplankton blooms from carbon limitation, resulting in less intense CO2 depletion and a lesser increase in pH. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the model predictions were qualitatively robust. Quantitatively, the predictions were sensitive to variation in lake depth, DIC input and CO2 gas transfer across the air-water interface, but relatively robust to variation in the carbon uptake mechanisms of phytoplankton. In total, these findings warn that rising CO2 levels may result in a marked intensification of

  3. Lake level variability in Silver Lake, Michigan: a response to fluctuations in lake levels of Lake Michigan

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fisher, Timothy G.; Loope, Walter L.

    2004-01-01

    Sediment from Silver Lake, Michigan, can be used to constrain the timing and elevation of Lake Michigan during the Nipissing transgression. Silver Lake is separated from Lake Michigan by a barrier/dune complex and the Nipissing, Calumet, and Glenwood shorelines of Lake Michigan are expressed landward of this barrier. Two Vibracores were taken from the lake in February 2000 and contain pebbly sand, sand, buried soils, marl, peat, and sandy muck. It is suggested here that fluctuations in the level of Lake Michigan are reflected in Silver Lake since the Chippewa low phase, and possibly at the end of the Algonquin phase. An age of 12,490 B.P. (10,460±50 14C yrs B.P.) on wood from a buried Entisol may record the falling Algonquin phase as the North Bay outlet opened. A local perched water table is indicated by marl deposited before 7,800 B.P. and peat between 7,760-7,000 B.P. when Lake Michigan was at the low elevation Chippewa phase. Continued deepening of the lake is recorded by the transition from peat to sandy muck at 7,000 B.P. in the deeper core, and with the drowning of an Inceptisol nearly 3 m higher at 6,410 B.P. in the shallower core. A rising groundwater table responding to a rising Lake Michigan base level during the Nipissing transgression, rather than a response to mid-Holocene climate change, explains deepening of Silver Lake. Sandy muck was deposited continually in Silver Lake between Nipissing and modern time. Sand lenses within the muck are presumed to be eolian in origin, derived from sand dunes advancing into the lake on the western side of the basin.

  4. Mid Holocene lake level and shoreline behavior during the Nipissing phase of the upper Great Lakes at Alpena, Michigan, USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thompson, T.A.; Lepper, K.; Endres, A.L.; Johnston, J.W.; Baedke, S.J.; Argyilan, E.P.; Booth, R.K.; Wilcox, D.A.

    2011-01-01

    The Nipissing phase was the last pre-modern high-water stage of the upper Great Lakes. Represented as either a one- or two-peak highstand, the Nipissing occurred following a long-term lake-level rise. This transgression was primarily an erosional event with only the final stage of the transgression preserved as barriers, spits, and strandplains of beach ridges. South of Alpena, Michigan, mid to late Holocene coastal deposits occur as a strandplain between Devils Lake and Lake Huron. The landward part of this strandplain is a higher elevation platform that formed during the final stage of lake-level rise to the Nipissing peak. The pre-Nipissing shoreline transgressed over Devils Lake lagoonal deposits from 6.4 to 6.1. ka. The first beach ridge formed ~ 6. ka, and then the shoreline advanced toward Lake Huron, producing beach ridges about every 70. years. This depositional regression produced a slightly thickening wedge of sediment during a lake-level rise that formed 20 beach ridges. The rise ended at 4.5. ka at the Nipissing peak. This peak was short-lived, as lake level fell > 4. m during the following 500. years. During this lake-level rise and subsequent fall, the shoreline underwent several forms of shoreline behavior, including erosional transgression, aggradation, depositional transgression, depositional regression, and forced regression. Other upper Great Lakes Nipissing platforms indicate that the lake-level change observed at Alpena of a rapid pre-Nipissing lake-level rise followed by a slower rise to the Nipissing peak, and a post-Nipissing rapid lake-level fall is representative of mid Holocene lake level in the upper Great Lakes. ?? 2011 Elsevier B.V.

  5. Sedimentary constraints on late Quaternary lake-level fluctuations at Bear Lake, Utah and Idaho

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Smoot, J.P.; Rosenbaum, J.G.

    2009-01-01

    A variety of sedimentological evidence was used to construct the lake-level history for Bear Lake, Utah and Idaho, for the past ???25,000 years. Shorelines provide evidence of precise lake levels, but they are infrequently preserved and are poorly dated. For cored sediment similar to that in the modern lake, grain-size distributions provide estimates of past lake depths. Sedimentary textures provide a highly sensitive, continuous record of lake-level changes, but the modern distribution of fabrics is poorly constrained, and many ancient features have no modern analog. Combining the three types of data yields a more robust lake-level history than can be obtained from any one type alone. When smooth age-depth models are used, lake-level curves from multiple cores contain inconsistent intervals (i.e., one record indicates a rising lake level while another record indicates a falling lake level). These discrepancies were removed and the multiple records were combined into a single lake-level curve by developing age-depth relations that contain changes in deposition rate (i.e., gaps) where indicated by sedimentological evidence. The resultant curve shows that, prior to 18 ka, lake level was stable near the modern level, probably because the lake was overflowing. Between ca. 17.5 and 15.5 ka, lake level was ???40 m below the modern level, then fluctuated rapidly throughout the post-glacial interval. Following a brief rise centered ca. 15 ka ( = Raspberry Square phase), lake level lowered again to 15-20 m below modern from ca. 14.8-11.8 ka. This regression culminated in a lowstand to 40 m below modern ca. 12.5 ka, before a rapid rise to levels above modern ca. 11.5 ka. Lake level was typically lower than present throughout the Holocene, with pronounced lowstands 15-20 m below the modern level ca. 10-9, 7.0, 6.5-4.5, 3.5, 3.0-2.5, 2.0, and 1.5 ka. High lake levels near or above the modern lake occurred ca. 8.5-8.0, 7.0-6.5, 4.5-3.5, 2.5, and 0.7 ka. This lake-level history

  6. Lake-level history of Lake Michigan for the past 12,000 years: the record from deep lacustrine sediments

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Colman, Steven M.; Forester, Richard M.; Reynolds, Richard L.; Sweetkind, Donald S.; King, John W.; Gangemi, Paul; Jones, Glenn A.; Keigwin, Loyd D.; Foster, David S.

    1994-01-01

    Collection and analysis of an extensive set of seismic-reflection profiles and cores from southern Lake Michigan have provided new data that document the history of the lake basin for the past 12,000 years. Analyses of the seismic data, together with radiocarbon dating, magnetic, sedimentologic, isotopic, and paleontologic studies of core samples, have allowed us to reconstruct lake-level changes during this recent part of the lake's history.The post-glacial history of lake-level changes in the Lake Michigan basin begins about 11.2 ka with the fall from the high Calumet level, caused by the retreat of the Two Rivers glacier, which had blocked the northern outlet of the lake. This lake-level fall was temporarily reversed by a major influx of water from glacial Lake Agassiz (about 10.6 ka), during which deposition of the distinctive gray Wilmette Bed of the Lake Michigan Formation interrupted deposition of red glaciolacustrine sediment. Lake level then continued to fall, culminating in the opening of the North Bay outlet at about 10.3 ka. During the resulting Chippewa low phase, lake level was about 80 m lower than it is today in the southern basin of Lake Michigan.The rise of the early Holocene lake level, controlled primarily by isostatic rebound of the North Bay outlet, resulted in a prominent, planar, transgressive unconformity that eroded most of the shoreline features below present lake level. Superimposed on this overall rise in lake level, a second influx of water from Lake Agassiz temporarily raised lake levels an unknown amount about 9.1 ka. At about 7 ka, lake level may have fallen below the level of the outlet because of sharply drier climate. Sometime between 6 and 5 ka, the character of the lake changed dramatically, probably due mostly to climatic causes, becoming highly undersaturated with respect to calcium carbonate and returning primary control of lake level to the isostatically rising North Bay outlet. Post-Nipissing (about 5 ka) lake level has

  7. Lake-level variability and water availability in the Great Lakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wilcox, Douglas A.; Thompson, Todd A.; Booth, Robert K.; Nicholas, J.R.

    2007-01-01

    In this report, we present recorded and reconstructed (pre-historical) changes in water levels in the Great Lakes, relate them to climate changes of the past, and highlight major water-availability implications for storage, coastal ecosystems, and human activities. 'Water availability,' as conceptualized herein, includes a recognition that water must be available for human and natural uses, but the balancing of how much should be set aside for which use is not discussed. The Great Lakes Basin covers a large area of North America. The lakes capture and store great volumes of water that are critical in maintaining human activities and natural ecosystems. Water enters the lakes mostly in the form of precipitation and streamflow. Although flow through the connecting channels is a primary output from the lakes, evaporation is also a major output. Water levels in the lakes vary naturally on timescales that range from hours to millennia; storage of water in the lakes changes at the seasonal to millennial scales in response to lake-level changes. Short-term changes result from storm surges and seiches and do not affect storage. Seasonal changes are driven by differences in net basin supply during the year related to snowmelt, precipitation, and evaporation. Annual to millennial changes are driven by subtle to major climatic changes affecting both precipitation (and resulting streamflow) and evaporation. Rebounding of the Earth's surface in response to loss of the weight of melted glaciers has differentially affected water levels. Rebound rates have not been uniform across the basin, causing the hydrologic outlet of each lake to rise in elevation more rapidly than some parts of the coastlines. The result is a long-term change in lake level with respect to shoreline features that differs from site to site. The reconstructed water-level history of Lake Michigan-Huron over the past 4,700 years shows three major high phases from 2,300 to 3,300, 1,100 to 2,000, and 0 to 800

  8. Hydrologic factors affecting lake-level fluctuations in the Big Marine Lake, Washington County, Minnesota

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brown, R.G.

    1985-01-01

    Long-term trends in cumulative departure from mean annual precipitation suggest that recharge to the drift aquifer in the area has been increasing since the 1940's. The increase in precipitation and recharge corresponds to the observed rise in lake level since 1965 when regular lake-level measurements began. Fluctuations in lake level in the future will depend on changes in recharge to the drift and bedrock aquifers, which is directly related to changes in long-term precipitation patterns.

  9. Strand-plain evidence for late Holocene lake-level variations in Lake Michigan

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thompson, T.A.; Baedke, S.J.

    1997-01-01

    Lake level is a primary control on shoreline behavior in Lake Michigan. The historical record from lake-level gauges is the most accurate source of information on past lake levels, but the short duration of the record does not permit the recognition of long-term patterns of lake-level change (longer than a decade or two). To extend the record of lake-level change, the internal architecture and timing of development of five strand plains of late Holocene beach ridges along the Lake Michigan coastline were studied. Relative lake-level curves for each site were constructed by determining the elevation of foreshore (swash zone) sediments in the beach ridges and by dating basal wetland sediments in the swales between ridges. These curves detect long-term (30+ yr) lake-level variations and differential isostatic adjustments over the past 4700 yr at a greater resolution than achieved by other studies. The average timing of beach-ridge development for all sites is between 29 and 38 yr/ridge. This correspondence occurs in spite of the embayments containing the strand plains being different in size, orientation, hydrographic regime, and available sediment type and caliber. If not coincidental, all sites responded to a lake-level fluctuation of a little more than three decades in duration and a range of 0.5 to 0.6 m. Most pronounced in the relative lake-level curves is a fluctuation of 120-180 yr in duration. This ???150 yr variation is defined by groups of four to six ridges that show a rise and fall in foreshore elevations of 0.5 to 1.5 m within the group. The 150 yr variation can be correlated between sites in the Lake Michigan basin. The ???30 and 150 yr fluctuations are superimposed on a long-term loss of water to the Lake Michigan basin and differential rates of isostatic adjustment.

  10. Lake Level Variation in Small Lakes: Not a Clear Picture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Starratt, S.

    2017-12-01

    Lake level is a useful tool for identifying regional changes in precipitation and evaporation. Due to the volume of water in large lakes, they may only record large-scale changes in water balance, while smaller lakes may record more subtle variations. However, the record of water level in small lakes is affected by a number of factors including elevation, bathymetry, nutrient load, and aquatic macrophyte abundance. The latest Quaternary diatom records from three small lakes with areas of <10 ha (Hobart Lake, OR, 1458 masl; Swamp Lake, CA, 1554 masl; Favre Lake, NV, 2899 masl) and a larger lake (Medicine Lake, CA, 2036 masl, 154 ha) were compared in this study. All the lakes have a deep central basin (>10 m) surrounded by a shallow (1-2 m) shelf. Changes in the abundance of diatoms representing different life habits (benthic, tychoplanktic, planktic) were used to identify lake level variation. Benthic taxa dominate the assemblage when only the central basin is occupied. As the shallow shelf is flooded, the abundance of tychoplanktic taxa increases. Planktic taxa increase with the establishment of stratification. Favre Lake presents the clearest indication of initial lake level rise (7600-5750 cal yr BP) and intermittent flooding of the shelf for the remainder of the record. Stratification appears to become established only in the last few hundred years. Higher nutrient levels in the early part of the Hobart Lake record lead to a nearly monotypic planktic assemblage which is replaced by a tychoplanktic-dominated assemblage as the lake floods the shelf at about 3500 cal yr BP. The last 500 years is dominated by benthic taxa associated with aquatic macrophytes. The consistent presence of planktic taxa in the Swamp Lake record suggests that the lake was stratified during most of its history, although slight variations in the relative abundances of planktic and tychoplanktic groups occur. The Medicine Lake record shows a gradual increase in planktic species between 11

  11. Paleoecology of a Northern Michigan Lake and the relationship among climate, vegetation, and Great Lakes water levels

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Booth, R.K.; Jackson, S.T.; Thompson, T.A.

    2002-01-01

    We reconstructed Holocene water-level and vegetation dynamics based on pollen and plant macrofossils from a coastal lake in Upper Michigan. Our primary objective was to test the hypothesis that major fluctuations in Great Lakes water levels resulted in part from climatic changes. We also used our data to provide temporal constraints to the mid-Holocene dry period in Upper Michigan. From 9600 to 8600 cal yr B.P. a shallow, lacustrine environment characterized the Mud Lake basin. A Sphagnum-dominated wetland occupied the basin during the mid-Holocene dry period (???8600 to 6600 cal yr B.P.). The basin flooded at 6600 cal yr B.P. as a result of rising water levels associated with the onset of the Nipissing I phase of ancestral Lake Superior. This flooding event occured contemporaneously with a well-documented regional expansion of Tsuga. Betula pollen increased during the Nipissing II phase (4500 cal yr B.P.). Macrofossil evidence from Mud Lake suggests that Betula alleghaniensis expansion was primarily responsible for the rising Betula pollen percentages. Major regional and local vegetational changes were associated with all the major Holocene highstands of the western Great Lakes (Nipissing I, Nipissing II, and Algoma). Traditional interpretations of Great Lakes water-level history should be revised to include a major role of climate. ?? 2002 University of Washington.

  12. Late-glacial and early Holocene changes in vegetation and lake-level at Hauterive/Rouges-Terres, Lake Neuchâtel (Switzerland)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Magny, Michel; Thew, Nigel; Hadorn, Philippe

    2003-01-01

    Palynological and sedimentological analyses of a sedimentary sequence sampled at Hauterive/Rouges-Terres, Lake Neuchâtel (Switzerland) provide documentation of changes in vegetation and lake-level during the Bølling, Younger Dryas and Preboreal pollen zones, and have allowed a comparison with sequences covering the same period from other sites located in the western part of the Swiss Plateau. The Juniperus-Hippophaë zone (regional pollen assemblage zone (RPAZ) CHb-2, first part of the Bølling, ca. 14 650-14 450 cal. yr BP) was characterised by a generally low lake-level. A weak rise occurred during this zone. The Juniperus-Hippophaë to Betula zone transition coincided with a lake-level lowering, interrupted by a short-lived but marked phase of higher lake-level recorded at the neighbouring site of Hauterive-Champréveyres, but not present at Hauterive/Rouges-Terres owing to an erosion surface. Shortly after the beginning of the Betula zone (RPAZ CHb-3, second part of the Bølling, ca 14 450-14 000 cal. yr BP), a marked rise in lake-level occurred. It was composed of two successive periods of higher level, coinciding with high values of Betula, separated by a short episode of relatively lower lake-level associated with raised values in Artemisia and other non-arboreal pollen. The last part of RPAZ CHb-3 saw a fall in lake-level. The lower lake-levels during RPAZ CHb-2 to early RPAZ CHb-3 can be correlated with the abrupt warming at the beginning of the Greenland Interstadial (GI) 1e thermal maximum. The successive episodes of higher lake-level punctuating the GI 1e might be linked to the so-called Intra-Bølling Cold Oscillations identified from several palaeoclimatic records in the North Atlantic area, and also documented in oxygen-isotope data sets from Swiss Plateau lakes. The Hauterive/Rouges-Terres lake-level record provides evidence for marked climatic drying through the second part of the Younger Dryas event (GS1), during the GS1-Preboreal (RPAZ CHb-4b-4

  13. Geothermal activity and hydrothermal mineral deposits at southern Lake Bogoria, Kenya Rift Valley: Impact of lake level changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Renaut, Robin W.; Owen, R. Bernhart; Ego, John K.

    2017-05-01

    Lake Bogoria, a saline alkaline closed-lake in a drainage basin of Neogene volcanic rocks in the central Kenya Rift, is fed partly by ∼200 hot alkaline springs located in three groups along its margins. Hot springs along the midwest shoreline (Loburu, Chemurkeu) and their travertine deposits have been studied, but little is known about the geothermal activity at southern Lake Bogoria. Observations, field measurements and analyses (geochemical and mineralogical) of the spring waters and deposits, spanning three decades, show that the southern spring waters are more saline, the hydrothermal alteration there is more intense, and that most hot spring deposits are siliceous. Geothermal activity at southern Lake Bogoria (Ng'wasis, Koibobei, Losaramat) includes littoral boiling springs and geysers, with fumaroles at slightly higher elevations. Modern spring deposits are ephemeral sodium carbonates, opal-A crusts and silica gels. Local fossil spring deposits include diatomaceous silica-cemented conglomerates that formed subaqueously when the lake was then dilute and higher than today, and outlying calcite tufa deposits. In contrast, mineral deposits around neighbouring fumarole vents and sites of hydrothermal alteration include clays (kaolinite), sulfate minerals (jarosite, alunite), and Fe-oxyhydroxides linked to rising acidic fluids. When lake level falls, the zone of acidity moves downwards and may overprint older alkaline spring deposits. In contrast, rising lake level leads to lake water dilution and vents in the lower parts of the acidic zone may become dilute alkaline springs. The new evidence at Lake Bogoria shows the potential for using the mineralogy of geothermal sediments to indicate former changes in lake level.

  14. Lake level fluctuations boost toxic cyanobacterial "oligotrophic blooms".

    PubMed

    Callieri, Cristiana; Bertoni, Roberto; Contesini, Mario; Bertoni, Filippo

    2014-01-01

    Global warming has been shown to strongly influence inland water systems, producing noticeable increases in water temperatures. Rising temperatures, especially when combined with widespread nutrient pollution, directly favour the growth of toxic cyanobacteria. Climate changes have also altered natural water level fluctuations increasing the probability of extreme events as dry periods followed by heavy rains. The massive appearance of Dolichospermum lemmermannii ( = planktonic Anabaena), a toxic species absent from the pelagic zone of the subalpine oligotrophic Lake Maggiore before 2005, could be a consequence of the unusual fluctuations of lake level in recent years. We hypothesized that these fluctuations may favour the cyanobacterium as result of nutrient pulses from the biofilms formed in the littoral zone when the lake level is high. To help verify this, we exposed artificial substrates in the lake, and evaluated their nutrient enrichment and release after desiccation, together with measurements of fluctuations in lake level, precipitation and D. lemmermannii population. The highest percentage of P release and the lowest C:P molar ratio of released nutrients coincided with the summer appearance of the D. lemmermannii bloom. The P pulse indicates that fluctuations in level counteract nutrient limitation in this lake and it is suggested that this may apply more widely to other oligotrophic lakes. In view of the predicted increase in water level fluctuations due to climate change, it is important to try to minimize such fluctuations in order to mitigate the occurrence of cyanobacterial blooms.

  15. Late Pleistocene to Holocene lake levels of Lake Warner, Oregon (USA) and their effect on archaeological site distribution patterns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wriston, T.; Smith, G. M.

    2017-12-01

    Few chronological controls are available for the rise and fall of small pluvial lake systems in the Northwestern Great Basin. Within Warner Basin this control was necessary for interpretation of known archaeological sites and for predicting where evidence of its earliest inhabitants might be expected. We trenched along relic beach ridges of Lake Warner, surveyed a stratified sample of the area for archaeological sites, and excavated some sites and a nearby rockshelter. These efforts produced new ages that we used to construct a lake level curve for Lake Warner. We found that the lake filled the valley floor between ca. 30,000 cal yr BP and ca. 10,300 cal yr BP. In nearby basins, several oscillations are evident before ca. 21,100 cal yr BP, but a steep rise to the LGM maximum occurred between 21,000 and 20,000 cal yr BP. Lake Warner likely mirrored these changes, dropped to the valley floor ca. 18,340 cal yr BP, and then rose to its maximum highstand when its waters briefly reached 1454 m asl. After this highstand the lake receded to moderately high levels. Following ca. 14,385 cal yr BP, the lake oscillated between moderate to moderately-high levels through the Bolling-Allerod interstadials and into the Younger Dryas stadial. The basin's first occupants arrived along its shore around this time, while the lake still filled the valley floor. These earliest people carried either Western Stemmed or Clovis projectile points, both of which are found along the lake margin. The lake receded into the valley floor ca. 10,300 cal yr BP and dune development began, ringing wetlands and small lakes that persisted in the footprint of the once large lake. By the time Mazama tephra fell 7,600 cal yr BP it blanketed pre-existing dunes and marsh peats. Our Lake Warner lake level curve facilitates interdisciplinary testing and refinement of it and similar curves throughout the region while helping us understand the history of lake and the people who lived along its shores.

  16. Last glacial maximum and Holocene lake levels of Owens Lake, eastern California, USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bacon, S.N.; Burke, R.M.; Pezzopane, S.K.; Jayko, A.S.

    2006-01-01

    Stratigraphic investigations of fluvio-deltaic and lacustrine sediments exposed in stream cuts, quarry walls, and deep trenches east of the Sierra Nevada in Owens Valley near Lone Pine, California have enabled the reconstruction of pluvial Owens Lake level oscillations. Age control for these sediments is from 22 radiocarbon (14C) dates and the identification and stratigraphic correlation of a tephra, which when plotted as a function of age versus altitude, define numerous oscillations in the level of pluvial Owens Lake during the latest Pleistocene and early Holocene. We have constructed a lake-level altitude curve for the time interval ???27,000 cal yr BP to present that is based on the integration of this new stratigraphic analysis with published surface stratigraphic data and subsurface core data. Pluvial Owens Lake regressed from its latest Pleistocene highstands from ???27,000 to ???15,300 cal yr BP, as recorded by ???15 m of down cutting of the sill from the altitudes of ???1160 to 1145 m. By ???11,600 cal yr BP, the lake had dropped ???45 m from the 1145 m sill. This lowstand was followed by an early Holocene transgression that attained a highstand near 1135 m before dropping to 1120 m at 7860-7650 cal yr BP that had not been recognized in earlier studies. The lake then lowered another ???30 m to shallow and near desiccation levels between ???6850 and 4300 cal yr BP. Fluvial cut-and-fill relations north of Lone Pine and well-preserved shoreline features at ???1108 m indicate a minor lake-level rise after 4300 cal yr BP, followed by alkaline and shallow conditions during the latest Holocene. The new latest Quaternary lake-level record of pluvial Owens Lake offers insight to the hydrologic balance along the east side of the southern Sierra Nevada and will assist regional paleoclimatic models for the western Basin and Range. ?? 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Late Holocene lake-level variation in southeastern Lake Superior: Tahquamenon Bay, Michigan

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnston, John W.; Baedke, Steve J.; Booth, Robert K.; Thompson, Todd A.; Wilcox, Douglas A.

    2004-01-01

    Internal architecture and ages of 71 beach ridges in the Tahquamenon Bay embayment along the southeastern shore of Lake Superior on the Upper Peninsula of Michigan were studied to generate a late Holocene relative lake-level curve. Establishing a long-term framework is important to examine the context of historic events and help predict potential future changes critical for effective water resource management. Ridges in the embayment formed between about 4,200 and 2,100 calendar years before 1950 (cal. yrs. B.P.) and were created and preserved every 28 A? 4.8 years on average. Groups of three to six beach ridges coupled with inflections in the lake-level curve indicate a history of lake levels fluctuations and outlet changes. A rapid lake-level drop (approximately 4 m) from about 4,100 to 3,800 cal. yrs. B.P. was associated with a fall from the Nipissing II high-water-level phase. A change from a gradual fall to a slight rise was associated with an outlet change from Port Huron, Michigan/Sarnia, Ontario to Sault Ste. Marie, Michigan/Ontario. A complete outlet change occurred after the Algoma high-water-level phase (ca. 2,400 cal. yrs. B.P.). Preliminary rates of vertical ground movement calculated from the strandplain are much greater than rates calculated from historical and geologic data. High rates of vertical ground movement could have caused tectonism in the Whitefish Bay area, modifying the strandplain during the past 2,400 years. A tectonic event at or near the Sault outlet also may have been a factor in the outlet change from Port Huron/Sarnia to Sault Ste. Marie.

  18. Analysis of water-level fluctuations of Lakes Winona and Winnemissett-- two landlocked lakes in a karst terrane in Volusia County, Florida

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hughes, G.H.

    1979-01-01

    The water levels of Lakes Winona and Winnemissett in Volusia County, Fla., correlate reasonably well during dry spells but only poorly during wet spells. Disparities develop mostly at times when the lake levels rise abruptly owing to rainstorms passing over the lake basins. The lack of correlation is attributed to the uneven distribution of the storm rainfall, even though the average annual rainfall at National Weather Service gages in the general area of the lakes is about the same. Analyses of the monthly rainfall data show that the rainfall variability between gages is sufficient to account for most of the disparity between monthly changes in the levels of the two lakes. The total annual rainfall at times may differ between rainfall gages by as much as 15 to 20 inches. Such differences tend to balance over the long term but may persist in the same direction for two or more years, causing apparent anomalies in lake-level fluctuations. (Woodard-USGS)

  19. Late quaternary lake level changes of Taro Co and neighbouring lakes, southwestern Tibetan Plateau, based on OSL dating and ostracod analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alivernini, Mauro; Lai, Zhongping; Frenzel, Peter; Fürstenberg, Sascha; Wang, Junbo; Guo, Yun; Peng, Ping; Haberzettl, Torsten; Börner, Nicole; Mischke, Steffen

    2018-07-01

    The Late Quaternary lake history of Taro Co and three neighbouring lakes was investigated to reconstruct local hydrological conditions and the regional moisture availability. Ostracod-based water depth and habitat reconstructions combined with OSL and radiocarbon dating are performed to better understand the Taro Co lake system evolution during the Late Quaternary. A high-stand is observed at 36.1 ka before present which represents the highest lake level since then related to a wet stage and resulting in a merging of Taro Co and its neighbouring lakes Zabuye and Lagkor Co this time. The lake level then decreased and reached its minimum around 30 ka. After c. 20 ka, the lake rose above the present day level. A minor low-stand, with colder and drier conditions, is documented at 12.5 cal. ka BP. Taro Co Zabuye and Lagkor Co formed one large lake with a corresponding high-stand during the early Holocene (11.2-9.7 cal. ka BP). After this Holocene lake level maximum, all three lakes shrank, probably related to drier conditions, and Lagkor Co became separated from the Taro Co-Zabuye system at c.7 ka. Subsequently, the lake levels decreased further about 30 m and Taro Co began to separate from Zabuye Lake at around 3.5 ka. The accelerating lake-level decrease of Taro Co was interrupted by a short-term lake level rise after 2 ka BP, probably related to minor variations of the monsoonal components. A last minor high-stand occurred at about 0.8 ka before today and subsequently the lake level of Taro Co registers a slight increase in recent years.

  20. Lake-level frequency analysis for Devils Lake, North Dakota

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wiche, Gregg J.; Vecchia, Aldo V.

    1996-01-01

    Two approaches were used to estimate future lake-level probabilities for Devils Lake. The first approach is based on an annual lake-volume model, and the second approach is based on a statistical water mass-balance model that generates seasonal lake volumes on the basis of seasonal precipitation, evaporation, and inflow. Autoregressive moving average models were used to model the annual mean lake volume and the difference between the annual maximum lake volume and the annual mean lake volume. Residuals from both models were determined to be uncorrelated with zero mean and constant variance. However, a nonlinear relation between the residuals of the two models was included in the final annual lakevolume model.Because of high autocorrelation in the annual lake levels of Devils Lake, the annual lake-volume model was verified using annual lake-level changes. The annual lake-volume model closely reproduced the statistics of the recorded lake-level changes for 1901-93 except for the skewness coefficient. However, the model output is less skewed than the data indicate because of some unrealistically large lake-level declines. The statistical water mass-balance model requires as inputs seasonal precipitation, evaporation, and inflow data for Devils Lake. Analysis of annual precipitation, evaporation, and inflow data for 1950-93 revealed no significant trends or long-range dependence so the input time series were assumed to be stationary and short-range dependent.Normality transformations were used to approximately maintain the marginal probability distributions; and a multivariate, periodic autoregressive model was used to reproduce the correlation structure. Each of the coefficients in the model is significantly different from zero at the 5-percent significance level. Coefficients relating spring inflow from one year to spring and fall inflows from the previous year had the largest effect on the lake-level frequency analysis.Inclusion of parameter uncertainty in the model

  1. Lake-level frequency analysis for Devils Lake, North Dakota

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wiche, Gregg J.; Vecchia, Aldo V.

    1995-01-01

    Two approaches were used to estimate future lake-level probabilities for Devils Lake. The first approach is based on an annual lake-volume model, and the second approach is based on a statistical water mass-balance model that generates seasonal lake volumes on the basis of seasonal precipitation, evaporation, and inflow.Autoregressive moving average models were used to model the annual mean lake volume and the difference between the annual maximum lake volume and the annual mean lake volume. Residuals from both models were determined to be uncorrelated with zero mean and constant variance. However, a nonlinear relation between the residuals of the two models was included in the final annual lake-volume model.Because of high autocorrelation in the annual lake levels of Devils Lake, the annual lakevolume model was verified using annual lake-level changes. The annual lake-volume model closely reproduced the statistics of the recorded lake-level changes for 1901-93 except for the skewness coefficient However, the model output is less skewed than the data indicate because of some unrealistically large lake-level declines.The statistical water mass-balance model requires as inputs seasonal precipitation, evaporation, and inflow data for Devils Lake. Analysis of annual precipitation, evaporation, and inflow data for 1950-93 revealed no significant trends or long-range dependence so the input time series were assumed to be stationary and short-range dependent.Normality transformations were used to approximately maintain the marginal probability distributions; and a multivariate, periodic autoregressive model was used to reproduce the correlation structure. Each of the coefficients in the model is significantly different from zero at the 5-percent significance level. Coefficients relating spring inflow from one year to spring and fall inflows from the previous year had the largest effect on the lake-level frequency analysis.Inclusion of parameter uncertainty in the model

  2. Hydrogeologic Controls on Lake Level at Mountain Lake, Virginia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roningen, J. M.; Burbey, T. J.

    2011-12-01

    Mountain Lake in Giles County, Virginia has a documented history of severe natural lake-level changes involving groundwater seepage that extend over the past 4200 years. Featured in the 1986 movie Dirty Dancing, the natural lake dried up completely in September 2008 and levels have not yet recovered. A hydrogeologic investigation was undertaken in an effort to determine the factors influencing lake level changes. A daily water balance, dipole-dipole electrical resistivity surveying, well logging and chemical sampling have shed light on: 1) the influence of a fault not previously discussed in literature regarding the lake, 2) the seasonal response to precipitation of a forested first-order drainage system in fractured rock, and 3) the possibility of flow pathways related to karst features. Geologic controls on lake level were investigated using several techniques. Geophysical surveys using dipole-dipole resistivity located possible subsurface flowpaths both to and from the lake. Well logs, lineament analysis, and joint sampling were used to assess structural controls on lake hydrology. Major ions were sampled at wells, springs, streams, and the lake to evaluate possible mixing of different sources of water in the lake. Groundwater levels were monitored for correlation to lake levels, rainfall events, and possible seismic effects. The hydrology of the lake was quantified with a water balance on a daily time step. Results from the water balance indicate steady net drainage and significant recharge when vegetation is dormant, particularly during rain-on-snow melt events. The resistivity survey reveals discrete areas that represent flow pathways from the lake, as well as flowpaths to springs upgradient of the lake located in the vicinity of the fault. The survey also suggests that some flowpaths may originate outside of the topographic watershed of the lake. Chemical evidence indicates karst may underlie the lakebed. Historical data suggest that artificial intervention

  3. Lake Urmia (Iran): can future socio-ecologically motivated river basin management restore lake water levels in an arid region with extensive agricultural development?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fazel, Nasim; Berndtsson, Ronny; Bertacchi Uvo, Cintia; Klove, Bjorn; Madani, Kaveh

    2015-04-01

    Lake Urmia, one of the world's largest hyper saline lakes located in northwest of Iran, is a UNESCO Biosphere Reserve and Ramsar site, protected as a national park and, supports invaluable and unique biodiversity and related ecosystem services for the region's 6.5 million inhabitants. Due to increased development of the region's water resources for agriculture and industry and to a certain extent climate change, the lake has started to shrink dramatically since 1995 and now is holding less than 30 percent of its volume. Rapid development in agricultural sector and land-use changes has resulted in immense construction of dams and water diversions in almost all lake feeding rivers, intensifying lake shrinking, increasing salinity and degrading its ecosystem. Recently, lake's cultural and environmental importance and social pressure has raised concerns and brought government attention to the lake restoration plans. Along with poor management, low yield agriculture as the most water consuming activity in the region with, rapid, insufficient development is one of the most influential drivers in the lake desiccation. Part of the lake restoration plans in agricultural sector is to restrict the agricultural areas in the main feeding river basins flowing mostly in the southern part of the lake and decreasing the agricultural water use in this area. This study assess the efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed plans and its influence on the lake level rise and its impacts on economy in the region using a system dynamics model developed for the Lake consist of hydrological and agro-economical sub-systems. The effect of decrease in agricultural area in the region on GDP and region economy was evaluated and compared with released water contribution in lake level rise for a five year simulation period.

  4. Controls on lava lake level at Halema`uma`u Crater, Kilauea Volcano

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Patrick, M. R.; Orr, T. R.

    2013-12-01

    Lava level is a fundamental measure of lava lake activity, but very little continuous long-term data exist worldwide to explore this aspect of lava lake behavior. The ongoing summit eruption at Kilauea Volcano began in 2008 and is characterized by an active lava lake within the eruptive vent. Lava level has been measured nearly continuously at Kilauea for several years using a combination of webcam images, laser rangefinder, and terrestrial LIDAR. Fluctuations in lava level have been a common aspect of the eruption and occur over several timescales. At the shortest timescale, the lava lake level can change over seconds to hours owing to two observed shallow gas-related processes. First, gas pistoning is common and is driven by episodic gas accumulation and release from the surface of the lava lake, causing the lava level to rise and fall by up to 20 m. Second, rockfalls into the lake trigger abrupt gas release, and lava level may drop as much as 10 m as a result. Over days, cyclic changes in lava level closely track cycles of deflation-inflation (DI) deformation events at the summit, leading to level changes up to 50 m. Rift zone intrusions have caused large (up to 140 m) drops in lava level over several days. On the timescale of weeks to months, the lava level follows the long-term inflation and deflation of the summit region, resulting in level changes up to 140 m. The remarkable correlation between lava level and deflation-inflation cycles, as well as the long-term deformation of the summit region, indicates that the lava lake acts as a reliable 'piezometer' (a measure of liquid pressure in the magma plumbing system); therefore, assessments of summit pressurization (and rift zone eruption potential) can now be carried out with the naked eye. The summit lava lake level is closely mirrored by the lava level within Pu`u `O`o crater, the vent area for the 30-year-long eruption on Kilauea's east rift zone, which is 20 km downrift of the summit. The coupling of these

  5. Holocene lake-level fluctuations of Lake Aricota, Southern Peru

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Placzek, C.; Quade, Jay; Betancourt, J.L.

    2001-01-01

    Lacustrine deposits exposed around Lake Aricota, Peru (17?? 22???S), a 7.5-km2 lake dammed by debris flows, provide a middle to late Holocene record of lake-level fluctuations. Chronological context for shoreline deposits was obtained from radiocarbon dating of vascular plant remains and other datable material with minimal 14C reservoir effects (<350 yr). Diatomites associated with highstands several meters above the modern lake level indicate wet episodes. Maximum Holocene lake level was attained before 6100 14C yr B.P. and ended ???2700 14C yr B.P. Moderately high lake levels occurred at 1700 and 1300 14C yr B.P. The highstand at Lake Aricota during the middle Holocene is coeval with a major lowstand at Lake Titicaca (16?? S), which is only 130 km to the northeast and shares a similar climatology. Comparisons with other marine and terrestrial records highlight emerging contradictions over the nature of mid-Holocene climate in the central Andes. ?? 2001 University of Washington.

  6. Holocene Lake-Level Fluctuations of Lake Aricota, Southern Peru

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Placzek, Christa; Quade, Jay; Betancourt, Julio L.

    2001-09-01

    Lacustrine deposits exposed around Lake Aricota, Peru (17° 22‧S), a 7.5-km2 lake dammed by debris flows, provide a middle to late Holocene record of lake-level fluctuations. Chronological context for shoreline deposits was obtained from radiocarbon dating of vascular plant remains and other datable material with minimal 14C reservoir effects (<350 yr). Diatomites associated with highstands several meters above the modern lake level indicate wet episodes. Maximum Holocene lake level was attained before 6100 14C yr B.P. and ended ∼2700 14C yr B.P. Moderately high lake levels occurred at 1700 and 1300 14C yr B.P. The highstand at Lake Aricota during the middle Holocene is coeval with a major lowstand at Lake Titicaca (16°S), which is only 130 km to the northeast and shares a similar climatology. Comparisons with other marine and terrestrial records highlight emerging contradictions over the nature of mid-Holocene climate in the central Andes.

  7. Buried soils in a perched dunefield as indicators of late holecene lake-level change in the Lake Superior basin

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Anderton, John B.; Loope, Walter L.

    1995-01-01

    A stratigraphic analysis of buried soils within the Grand Sable Dunes, a dune field perched 90 m above the southern shore of Lake Superior, reveals a history of eolian activity apparently linked with lake-level fluctuations over the last 5500 yr. A relative rise in the water plane of the Nipissing Great Lakes initially destabilized the lakeward bluff face of the Grand Sable plateau between 5400 and 4600 14C yr B.P. This led to the burial of the Sable Creek soil by eolian sediments derived from the bluff face. Subsequent episodes of eolian activity appear to be tied to similar destabilizing events; high lake levels may have initiated at least four and perhaps eleven episodes of dune building as expressed by soil burials within the dunes. Intervening low lake levels probably correlate with soil profile development, which varies from the well-developed Sable Creek Spodosol catena to thin organic layers containing in-place stumps and tree trunks. Paleoecological reconstructions available for the area do not imply enough climatic change to account for the episodic dune activity. Burial of soils by fine-fraction sediments links dune-building episodes with destabilization of the lower lake-facing bluff, which is rich in fines.

  8. Climate Factors Contributing to Streamflow Inputs and Extreme Water-level Deviations from Long-term Averages for Lakes Superior and Michigan-Huron

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anderson, M. T.; Stamm, J. F.

    2014-12-01

    The Great Lakes are a highly valued freshwater resource of the United States and Canada. The Lakes are the focus of a science-based restoration program, known as the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI). Physical and chemical factors, such as inflows and nutrient loads to the Great Lakes can affect ecosystem function, contribute to the spread of invasive species and increase the occurrence of harmful algal blooms. Since about 1999, water levels in Lakes Superior and Michigan-Huron have been at or below the long-term average (1918 to present). Analyses of streamflow trends for the period 1960 to 2012 in watersheds draining into Lakes Superior and Michigan-Huron showed a long-term decline in average inflows, which helps to explain the persistently below-average lake levels. Recent climatic conditions of October 2013 to August 2014 have contributed to a rapid rise in lake levels, most notably in Lake Superior. Lake Superior recently reached an elevation of 602.56 feet above sea level in August 2014, which is the highest level in 17 years. Coincident with this recovery was the development of a large algal bloom in Lake Erie in August of 2014 that shut down the Toledo, Ohio municipal water supply. These anomalous, extreme deviations from long-term average lake levels will be examined to better understand the forcing factors that contributed to changes in inflow volumes and lake-levels. Particular focus will be given to the climatology of years when changes in lake levels are most pronounced, such as; the measured lake-level declines during 1964-1965 and 1998-2000; and lake-level rises during 1973-1974, 1987-1989, and 2013-2014. The climatology of years with periods of algal blooms will also be examined such as, 2003, 2008, 2011 and 2014.

  9. Centennial- to decadal scale environmental shifts in and around Lake Pannon (Vienna Basin) related to a major Late Miocene lake level rise

    PubMed Central

    Harzhauser, Mathias; Kern, Andrea; Soliman, Ali; Minati, Klaus; Piller, Werner E.; Danielopol, Dan L.; Zuschin, Martin

    2010-01-01

    A detailed ultra-high-resolution analysis of a 37-cm-long core of Upper Miocene lake sediments of the long-lived Lake Pannon has been performed. Despite a general stable climate at c. 11–9 Ma, several high-frequency oscillations of the paleoenvironments and depositional environments are revealed by the analysis over a short time span of less than 1000 years. Shifts of the lake level, associated with one major 3rd order flooding are reflected by all organisms by a cascade of environmental changes on a decadal scale. Within a few decades, the pollen record documents shifting vegetation zones due to the landward migration of the coast; the dinoflagellate assemblages switch towards “offshore-type” due to the increasing distance to the shore; the benthos is affected by low oxygen conditions due to the deepening. This general trend is interrupted by smaller scale cycles, which lack this tight interconnection. Especially, the pollen data document a clear cyclicity that is expressed by iterative low pollen concentration events. These “negative” cycles are partly reflected by dinoflagellate blooms suggesting a common trigger-mechanism and a connection between terrestrial environments and surface waters of Lake Pannon. The benthic fauna of the core, however, does not reflect these surface water cycles. This forcing mechanism is not understood yet but periodic climatic fluctuations are favoured as hypothesis instead of further lake level changes. Short phases of low precipitation, reducing pollen production and suppressing effective transport by local streams, might be a plausible mechanism. This study is the first hint towards solar activity related high-frequency climate changes during the Vallesian (Late Miocene) around Lake Pannon and should encourage further ultra-high-resolution analyses in the area. PMID:21179376

  10. Dramatic water-level fluctuations in lakes under intense human impact: modelling the effect of vegetation, climate and hydrogeology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vainu, M.

    2012-04-01

    Lakes form a highly important ecosystem in the glacial terrain of northern Europe and America, but their hydrology remains understudied. When the water-level of a lake drops significantly and rises again in a time span of half a century and the widespread explanation of the fluctuations seems insufficient, then it raises a question: how do different anthropogenic and natural processes actually affect the formation of a lakes' water body. The abovementioned scenario applies to three small closed-basin Estonian lakes (L. Ahnejärv, L. Kuradijärv and L. Martiska) analysed in the current study. These lakes suffered a major water-level drop (up to 3.8 m) between 1946 and 1987 and a major rise between 1987 and 2010, from 1 m (L. Ahnejärv) to 2.5 m (L. Kuradijärv). Decreasing and increasing groundwater abstraction near the lakes has been widely considered to be the only reason for the fluctuations. It is true that the most severe drop in the lake levels did occur after 1972 when groundwater abstraction for drinking water started in the vicinity of the lakes. However, the lake levels started to fall before the groundwater abstraction began and for the time being the lake levels have risen to a higher level than in the 1970s when the quantity of annually abstracted groundwater was similar to nowadays. Therefore the processes affecting the formation of the lakes' water body prove to be more complex than purely the hydrogeological change caused by groundwater abstraction. A new deterministic water balance model (where the evaporation from the lake surface was calculated by Penman equation and the catchment runoff by Thornthwaite-Mather soil-moisture model), compiled for the study, coupled with LiDAR-based GIS-modelling of the catchments was used to identify the different factors influencing the lakes' water level. The modelling results reveal that the moderate drop in lake water levels before the beginning of groundwater abstraction was probably caused by the growth of a

  11. Water-Balance Model to Simulate Historical Lake Levels for Lake Merced, California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maley, M. P.; Onsoy, S.; Debroux, J.; Eagon, B.

    2009-12-01

    Lake Merced is a freshwater lake located in southwestern San Francisco, California. In the late 1980s and early 1990s, an extended, severe drought impacted the area that resulted in significant declines in Lake Merced lake levels that raised concerns about the long-term health of the lake. In response to these concerns, the Lake Merced Water Level Restoration Project was developed to evaluate an engineered solution to increase and maintain Lake Merced lake levels. The Lake Merced Lake-Level Model was developed to support the conceptual engineering design to restore lake levels. It is a spreadsheet-based water-balance model that performs monthly water-balance calculations based on the hydrological conceptual model. The model independently calculates each water-balance component based on available climate and hydrological data. The model objective was to develop a practical, rule-based approach for the water balance and to calibrate the model results to measured lake levels. The advantage of a rule-based approach is that once the rules are defined, they enhance the ability to then adapt the model for use in future-case simulations. The model was calibrated to historical lake levels over a 70-year period from 1939 to 2009. Calibrating the model over this long historical range tested the model over a variety of hydrological conditions including wet, normal and dry precipitation years, flood events, and periods of high and low lake levels. The historical lake level range was over 16 feet. The model calibration of historical to simulated lake levels had a residual mean of 0.02 feet and an absolute residual mean of 0.42 feet. More importantly, the model demonstrated the ability to simulate both long-term and short-term trends with a strong correlation of the magnitude for both annual and seasonal fluctuations in lake levels. The calibration results demonstrate an improved conceptual understanding of the key hydrological factors that control lake levels, reduce uncertainty

  12. Evaluating Capability of Devils Lake Emergency Outlets in Lowering Lake Water Levels While Controlling flooding Damage to Downstream

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scanlon, B. R.; Zhang, Z.; Sun, A.; Save, H.; Mueller Schmied, H.; Wada, Y.; Doll, P. M.; Eisner, S.

    2016-12-01

    Devils Lake is an endorheic lake locate in the Red River of the North Basin with a natural outlet at a level of 444.7 meters above the sea level flowing into the Sheyenne River. Historical accumulation of salts has dramatically increased the concentration of salts in the lake, particularly of the sulfates, that are much greater than the surrounding water bodies. Since 1993, the lake water level has risen by nearly 10 meters and caused extensive flooding in the surrounding area, and greatly increased the chance of natural spillage to the Sheyenne River. To mitigate Devils Lake flooding and to prevent its natural spillage, two outlets were constructed at the west and east sides of the lake to drain the water to the Sheyenne River in a controlled fashion. However, pumping water from Devils Lake has degraded water quality of the Sheyenne River. In an earlier study, we coupled Soil and Water Assessment Tools (SWAT) and CE-QUAL-W2 models to investigate the changes of sulfate distribution as the lake water level rises. We found that, while operating the two outlets has lowered Devils Lake water level by 0.7 meter, it has also significantly impaired the Sheyenne River water quality, increasing the Sheyenne River average sulfate concentration from 105 to 585 mg l-1 from 2012 to 2014 In this study, we investigate the impact of the outlets on the Sheyenne River floodplain by coupling SWAT and HEC-RAS model. The SWAT model performed well in simulating daily streamflow in the Sheyenne River with R2>0.56 and ENS > 0.52. The simulated water depths and floodplain by HEC-RAS model for the Sheyenne River agreed well with observations. Operating the outlets from April to October can draw down the Devil Lake water level by 0.45 m, but the drained water would almost double the extension of the Sheyenne River floodplain and elevate the sulfate concentration in the Sheyenne River above the 450 mg l-1 North Dakota sulfate concentration standard for stream class I. Operating the outlets is

  13. Evaluating Capability of Devils Lake Emergency Outlets in Lowering Lake Water Levels While Controlling flooding Damage to Downstream

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shabani, A.; Zhang, X.

    2017-12-01

    Devils Lake is an endorheic lake locate in the Red River of the North Basin with a natural outlet at a level of 444.7 meters above the sea level flowing into the Sheyenne River. Historical accumulation of salts has dramatically increased the concentration of salts in the lake, particularly of the sulfates, that are much greater than the surrounding water bodies. Since 1993, the lake water level has risen by nearly 10 meters and caused extensive flooding in the surrounding area, and greatly increased the chance of natural spillage to the Sheyenne River. To mitigate Devils Lake flooding and to prevent its natural spillage, two outlets were constructed at the west and east sides of the lake to drain the water to the Sheyenne River in a controlled fashion. However, pumping water from Devils Lake has degraded water quality of the Sheyenne River. In an earlier study, we coupled Soil and Water Assessment Tools (SWAT) and CE-QUAL-W2 models to investigate the changes of sulfate distribution as the lake water level rises. We found that, while operating the two outlets has lowered Devils Lake water level by 0.7 meter, it has also significantly impaired the Sheyenne River water quality, increasing the Sheyenne River average sulfate concentration from 105 to 585 mg l-1 from 2012 to 2014 In this study, we investigate the impact of the outlets on the Sheyenne River floodplain by coupling SWAT and HEC-RAS model. The SWAT model performed well in simulating daily streamflow in the Sheyenne River with R2>0.56 and ENS > 0.52. The simulated water depths and floodplain by HEC-RAS model for the Sheyenne River agreed well with observations. Operating the outlets from April to October can draw down the Devil Lake water level by 0.45 m, but the drained water would almost double the extension of the Sheyenne River floodplain and elevate the sulfate concentration in the Sheyenne River above the 450 mg l-1 North Dakota sulfate concentration standard for stream class I. Operating the outlets is

  14. Mercury and water level fluctuations in lakes of northern Minnesota

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Larson, James H.; Maki, Ryan P; Christensen, Victoria G.; Sandheinrich, Mark B.; LeDuc, Jaime F.; Kissane, Claire; Knights, Brent C.

    2017-01-01

    Large lake ecosystems support a variety of ecosystem services in surrounding communities, including recreational and commercial fishing. However, many northern temperate fisheries are contaminated by mercury. Annual variation in mercury accumulation in fish has previously been linked to water level (WL) fluctuations, opening the possibility of regulating water levels in a manner that minimizes or reduces mercury contamination in fisheries. Here, we compiled a long-term dataset (1997-2015) of mercury content in young-of-year Yellow Perch (Perca flavescens) from six lakes on the border between the U.S. and Canada and examined whether mercury content appeared to be related to several metrics of WL fluctuation (e.g., spring WL rise, annual maximum WL, and year-to-year change in maximum WL). Using simple correlation analysis, several WL metrics appear to be strongly correlated to Yellow Perch mercury content, although the strength of these correlations varies by lake. We also used many WL metrics, water quality measurements, temperature and annual deposition data to build predictive models using partial least squared regression (PLSR) analysis for each lake. These PLSR models showed some variation among lakes, but also supported strong associations between WL fluctuations and annual variation in Yellow Perch mercury content. The study lakes underwent a modest change in WL management in 2000, when winter WL minimums were increased by about 1 m in five of the six study lakes. Using the PLSR models, we estimated how this change in WL management would have affected Yellow Perch mercury content. For four of the study lakes, the change in WL management that occurred in 2000 likely reduced Yellow Perch mercury content, relative to the previous WL management regime.

  15. Tree-Ring Dating of Extreme Lake Levels at the Subarctic?Boreal Interface

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bégin, Yves

    2001-03-01

    The dates of extreme water levels of two large lakes in northern Quebec have been recorded over the last century by ice scars on shoreline trees and sequences of reaction wood in shore trees tilted by wave erosion. Ice-scar chronologies indicate high water levels in spring, whereas tree-tilting by waves is caused by summer high waters. A major increase in both the amplitude and frequency of ice floods occurred in the 1930s. No such change was indicated by the tree-tilting chronologies, but wave erosion occurred in exceptionally rainy years. According to the modern record, spring lake-level rise is due to increased snowfalls since the 1930s. However, the absence of erosional marks in a large number of years since 1930 suggests a high frequency of low-water-level years resulting from dry conditions. Intercalary years with very large numbers of marked trees (e.g., 1935) indicate that the interannual range of summer lake levels has increased since the 1930s. Increased lake-flood frequency is postulated to be related to a slower expansion of arctic anticyclones, favoring the passage of cyclonic air masses over the area and resulting in abundant snowfall in early winter. Conditions in summer are due to the rate of weakening of the anticyclones controlling the position of the arctic front in summer. This position influences the path of the cyclonic air masses, which control summer precipitation and, consequently, summer lake levels in the area.

  16. Late Holocene lake-level fluctuations in Walker Lake, Nevada, USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Yuan, F.; Linsley, B.K.; Howe, S.S.; Lund, S.P.; McGeehin, J.P.

    2006-01-01

    Walker Lake, a hydrologically closed, saline, and alkaline lake, is situated along the western margin of the Great Basin in Nevada of the western United States. Analyses of the magnetic susceptibility (??), total inorganic carbon (TIC), and oxygen isotopic composition (??18O) of carbonate sediments including ostracode shells (Limnocythere ceriotuberosa) from Walker Lake allow us to extend the sediment record of lake-level fluctuations back to 2700??years B.P. There are approximately five major stages over the course of the late Holocene hydrologic evolution in Walker Lake: an early lowstand (> 2400??years B.P.), a lake-filling period (??? 2400 to ??? 1000??years B.P.), a lake-level lowering period during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) (??? 1000 to ??? 600??years B.P.), a relatively wet period (??? 600 to ??? 100??years B.P.), and the anthropogenically induced lake-level lowering period (< 100??years B.P.). The most pronounced lowstand of Walker Lake occurred at ??? 2400??years B.P., as indicated by the relatively high values of ??18O. This is generally in agreement with the previous lower resolution paleoclimate results from Walker Lake, but contrasts with the sediment records from adjacent Pyramid Lake and Siesta Lake. The pronounced lowstand suggests that the Walker River that fills Walker Lake may have partially diverted into the Carson Sink through the Adrian paleochannel between 2700 to 1400??years B.P. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Using modelling to predict impacts of sea level rise and increased turbidity on seagrass distributions in estuarine embayments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davis, Tom R.; Harasti, David; Smith, Stephen D. A.; Kelaher, Brendan P.

    2016-11-01

    Climate change induced sea level rise will affect shallow estuarine habitats, which are already under threat from multiple anthropogenic stressors. Here, we present the results of modelling to predict potential impacts of climate change associated processes on seagrass distributions. We use a novel application of relative environmental suitability (RES) modelling to examine relationships between variables of physiological importance to seagrasses (light availability, wave exposure, and current flow) and seagrass distributions within 5 estuarine embayments. Models were constructed separately for Posidonia australis and Zostera muelleri subsp. capricorni using seagrass data from Port Stephens estuary, New South Wales, Australia. Subsequent testing of models used independent datasets from four other estuarine embayments (Wallis Lake, Lake Illawarra, Merimbula Lake, and Pambula Lake) distributed along 570 km of the east Australian coast. Relative environmental suitability models provided adequate predictions for seagrass distributions within Port Stephens and the other estuarine embayments, indicating that they may have broad regional application. Under the predictions of RES models, both sea level rise and increased turbidity are predicted to cause substantial seagrass losses in deeper estuarine areas, resulting in a net shoreward movement of seagrass beds. Seagrass species distribution models developed in this study provide a valuable tool to predict future shifts in estuarine seagrass distributions, allowing identification of areas for protection, monitoring and rehabilitation.

  18. Dissolved Oxygen Levels in Lake Chabot

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sharma, D.; Pica, R.

    2014-12-01

    Dissolved oxygen levels are crucial in every aquatic ecosystem; it allows for the fish to breathe and it is the best indicator of water quality. Lake Chabot is the main backup water source for Castro Valley, making it crucial that the lake stays in good health. Last year, research determined that the water in Lake Chabot was of good quality and not eutrophic. This year, an experiment was conducted using Lake Chabot's dissolved oxygen levels to ensure the quality of the water and to support the findings of the previous team. After testing three specifically chosen sites at the lake using a dissolved oxygen meter, results showed that the oxygen levels in the lake were within the healthy range. It was then determined that Lake Chabot is a suitable backup water source and it continues to remain a healthy habitat.

  19. Terrestrial laser scanning observations of geomorphic changes and varying lava lake levels at Erebus volcano, Antarctica

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jones, Laura K.; Kyle, Philip R.; Oppenheimer, Clive; Frechette, Jedediah D.; Okal, Marianne H.

    2015-03-01

    A Terrestrial Laser Scanning (TLS) instrument was used to image the topography of the Main Crater at Erebus volcano each December in 2008, 2009, and 2010. Our high-spatial resolution TLS scans provide unique insights into annual and decadal scale geomorphic evolution of the summit area when integrated with comparable data collected by an airborne instrument in 2001. We observe both a pattern of subsidence within the Inner Crater of the volcano and an ~ 3 m per-year drop in the lava lake level over the same time period that are suggestive of decreasing overpressure in an underlying magma reservoir. We also scanned the active phonolite lava lake hosted within the Inner Crater, and recorded rapid cyclic fluctuations in the level of the lake. These were sporadically interrupted by minor explosions by bursting gas bubbles at the lake surface. The TLS data permit calculation of lake level rise and fall speeds and associated rates of volumetric change within the lake. These new observations, when considered with prior determinations of rates of lake surface motion and gas output, are indicative of unsteady magma flow in the conduit and its associated variability in gas volume fraction.

  20. Adaptation to Sea Level Rise in Coastal Units of the National Park Service (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beavers, R. L.

    2010-12-01

    83 National Park Service (NPS) units contain nearly 12,000 miles of coastal, estuarine and Great Lakes shoreline and their associated resources. Iconic natural features exist along active shorelines in NPS units, including, e.g., Cape Cod, Padre Island, Hawaii Volcanoes, and the Everglades. Iconic cultural resources managed by NPS include the Cape Hatteras Lighthouse, Fort Sumter, the Golden Gate, and heiaus and fish traps along the coast of Hawaii. Impacts anticipated from sea level rise include inundation and flooding of beaches and low lying marshes, shoreline erosion of coastal areas, and saltwater intrusion into the water table. These impacts and other coastal hazards will threaten park beaches, marshes, and other resources and values; alter the viability of coastal roads; and require the NPS to re-evaluate the financial, safety, and environmental implications of maintaining current projects and implementing future projects in ocean and coastal parks in the context of sea level rise. Coastal erosion will increase as sea levels rise. Barrier islands along the coast of Louisiana and North Carolina may have already passed the threshold for maintaining island integrity in any scenario of sea level rise (U.S. Climate Change Science Program Synthesis and Assessment Program Report 4.1). Consequently, sea level rise is expected to hasten the disappearance of historic coastal villages, coastal wetlands, forests, and beaches, and threaten coastal roads, homes, and businesses. While sea level is rising in most coastal parks, some parks are experiencing lower water levels due to isostatic rebound and lower lake levels. NPS funded a Coastal Vulnerability Project to evaluate the physical and geologic factors affecting 25 coastal parks. The USGS Open File Reports for each park are available at http://woodshole.er.usgs.gov/project-pages/. These reports were designed to inform park planning efforts. NPS conducted a Storm Vulnerability Project to provide ocean and coastal

  1. Lake levels, streamflow, and surface-water quality in the Devils Lake area, North Dakota

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wiche, Gregg J.

    1996-01-01

    The Devils Lake Basin is a 3,810-square-mile (mi2) closed basin (fig. 1) in the Red River of the North Basin. About 3,320 mi2 of the total 3,810 mi2 is tributary to Devils Lake; the remainder is tributary to Stump Lake.Since glaciation, the lake level of Devils Lake has fluctuated from about 1,457 feet (ft) above sea level (asl), the natural spill elevation of the lake to the Sheyenne River, to 1,400 ft asl (Aronow, 1957). Although no documented records of lake levels are available before 1867, Upham (1895, p. 595), on the basis of tree-ring chronology, indicated that the lake level was 1,441 ft asl in 1830. Lake levels were recorded sporadically from 1867 to 1901 when the U.S. Geological Survey established a gaging station on Devils Lake. From 1867 to the present (1996), the lake level has fluctuated between a maximum of 1,438.4 ft asl in 1867 and a minimum of 1,400.9 ft asl in 1940 (fig. 2). On July 31, 1996, the lake level was 1,437.8 ft asl, about 15.2 ft higher than the level recorded in February 1993 and the highest level in about 120 years.Since 1993, the lake level of Devils Lake (fig. 2) has risen rapidly in response to above-normal precipitation from the summer of 1993 to the present, and 30,000 acres of land around the lake have been flooded. The above-normal precipitation also has caused flooding elsewhere in the Devils Lake Basin. State highways near Devils Lake are being raised, and some local roads have been closed because of flooding.In response to the flooding, the Devils Lake Basin Interagency Task Force, comprised of many State and Federal agencies, was formed in 1995 to find and propose intermediate (5 years or less) solutions to reduce the effects of high lake levels. In addition to various planning studies being conducted by Federal agencies, the North Dakota State Water Commission has implemented a project to store water on small tracts of land and in the chain of lakes (Sweetwater Lake, Morrison Lake, Dry Lake, Mikes Lake, Chain Lake

  2. Trophic dynamics of shrinking Subarctic lakes: naturally eutrophic waters impart resilience to rising nutrient and major ion concentrations.

    PubMed

    Lewis, Tyler L; Heglund, Patricia J; Lindberg, Mark S; Schmutz, Joel A; Schmidt, Joshua H; Dubour, Adam J; Rover, Jennifer; Bertram, Mark R

    2016-06-01

    Shrinking lakes were recently observed for several Arctic and Subarctic regions due to increased evaporation and permafrost degradation. Along with lake drawdown, these processes often boost aquatic chemical concentrations, potentially impacting trophic dynamics. In particular, elevated chemical levels may impact primary productivity, which may in turn influence populations of primary and secondary consumers. We examined trophic dynamics of 18 shrinking lakes of the Yukon Flats, Alaska, that had experienced pronounced increases in nutrient (>200 % total nitrogen, >100 % total phosphorus) and ion concentrations (>100 % for four major ions combined) from 1985-1989 to 2010-2012, versus 37 stable lakes with relatively little chemical change over the same period. We found that phytoplankton stocks, as indexed by chlorophyll concentrations, remained unchanged in both shrinking and stable lakes from the 1980s to 2010s. Moving up the trophic ladder, we found significant changes in invertebrate abundance across decades, including decreased abundance of five of six groups examined. However, these decadal losses in invertebrate abundance were not limited to shrinking lakes, occurring in lakes with stable surface areas as well. At the top of the food web, we observed that probabilities of lake occupancy for ten waterbird species, including adults and chicks, remained unchanged from the period 1985-1989 to 2010-2012. Overall, our study lakes displayed a high degree of resilience to multi-trophic cascades caused by rising chemical concentrations. This resilience was likely due to their naturally high fertility, such that further nutrient inputs had little impact on waters already near peak production.

  3. Trophic dynamics of shrinking Subarctic lakes: naturally eutrophic waters impart resilience to rising nutrient and major ion concentrations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lewis, Tyler; Lindberg, Mark S.; Heglund, Patricia J.; Schmutz, Joel A.; Schmidt, Joshua H.; Dubour, Adam J.; Rover, Jennifer R.; Bertram, Mark R.

    2016-01-01

    Shrinking lakes were recently observed for several Arctic and Subarctic regions due to increased evaporation and permafrost degradation. Along with lake drawdown, these processes often boost aquatic chemical concentrations, potentially impacting trophic dynamics. In particular, elevated chemical levels may impact primary productivity, which may in turn influence populations of primary and secondary consumers. We examined trophic dynamics of 18 shrinking lakes of the Yukon Flats, Alaska, that had experienced pronounced increases in nutrient (>200 % total nitrogen, >100 % total phosphorus) and ion concentrations (>100 % for four major ions combined) from 1985-1989 to 2010-2012, versus 37 stable lakes with relatively little chemical change over the same period. We found that phytoplankton stocks, as indexed by chlorophyll concentrations, remained unchanged in both shrinking and stable lakes from the 1980s to 2010s. Moving up the trophic ladder, we found significant changes in invertebrate abundance across decades, including decreased abundance of five of six groups examined. However, these decadal losses in invertebrate abundance were not limited to shrinking lakes, occurring in lakes with stable surface areas as well. At the top of the food web, we observed that probabilities of lake occupancy for ten waterbird species, including adults and chicks, remained unchanged from the period 1985-1989 to 2010-2012. Overall, our study lakes displayed a high degree of resilience to multi-trophic cascades caused by rising chemical concentrations. This resilience was likely due to their naturally high fertility, such that further nutrient inputs had little impact on waters already near peak production.

  4. Porewater salinity reveals past lake-level changes in Lake Van, the Earth's largest soda lake.

    PubMed

    Tomonaga, Yama; Brennwald, Matthias S; Livingstone, David M; Kwiecien, Olga; Randlett, Marie-Ève; Stockhecke, Mona; Unwin, Katie; Anselmetti, Flavio S; Beer, Jürg; Haug, Gerald H; Schubert, Carsten J; Sturm, Mike; Kipfer, Rolf

    2017-03-22

    In closed-basin lakes, sediment porewater salinity can potentially be used as a conservative tracer to reconstruct past fluctuations in lake level. However, until now, porewater salinity profiles did not allow quantitative estimates of past lake-level changes because, in contrast to the oceans, significant salinity changes (e.g., local concentration minima and maxima) had never been observed in lacustrine sediments. Here we show that the salinity measured in the sediment pore water of Lake Van (Turkey) allows straightforward reconstruction of two major transgressions and a major regression that occurred during the last 250 ka. We observed strong changes in the vertical salinity profiles of the pore water of the uppermost 100 m of the sediments in Lake Van. As the salinity balance of Lake Van is almost at steady-state, these salinity changes indicate major lake-level changes in the past. In line with previous studies on lake terraces and with seismic and sedimentological surveys, we identify two major transgressions of up to +105 m with respect to the current lake level at about 135 ka BP and 248 ka BP starting at the onset of the two previous interglacials (MIS5e and MIS7), and a major regression of about -200 m at about 30 ka BP during the last ice age.

  5. Deglaciation, lake levels, and meltwater discharge in the Lake Michigan basin

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Colman, Steven M.; Clark, J.A.; Clayton, L.; Hansel, A.K.; Larsen, C.E.

    1994-01-01

    The deglacial history of the Lake Michigan basin, including discharge and routing of meltwater, is complex because of the interaction among (1) glacial retreats and re-advances in the basin (2) the timing of occupation and the isostatic adjustment of lake outlets and (3) the depositional and erosional processes that left evidence of past lake levels. In the southern part of the basin, a restricted area little affected by differential isostasy, new studies of onshore and offshore areas allow refinement of a lake-level history that has evolved over 100 years. Important new data include the recognition of two periods of influx of meltwater from Lake Agassiz into the basin and details of the highstands gleaned from sedimentological evidence. Major disagreements still persist concerning the exact timing and lake-level changes associated with the Algonquin phase, approximately 11,000 BP. A wide variety of independent data suggests that the Lake Michigan Lobe was thin, unstable, and subject to rapid advances and retreats. Consequently, lake-level changes were commonly abrupt and stable shorelines were short-lived. The long-held beliefs that the southern part of the basin was stable and separated from deformed northern areas by a hinge-line discontinuity are becoming difficult to maintain. Numerical modeling of the ice-earth system and empirical modeling of shoreline deformation are both consistent with observed shoreline tilting in the north and with the amount and pattern of modern deformation shown by lake-level gauges. New studies of subaerial lacustrine features suggest the presence of deformed shorelines higher than those originally ascribed to the supposed horizontal Glenwood level. Finally, the Lake Michigan region as a whole appears to behave in a similar manner to other areas, both local (other Great Lakes) and regional (U.S. east coast), that have experienced major isostatic changes. Detailed sedimentological and dating studies of field sites and additional

  6. The Impact of Meteorology on Ozone Levels in the Lake Tahoe Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Theiss, Sandra

    The Lake Tahoe Basin is located on the California-Nevada border and occasionally experiences elevated levels of ozone exceeding the 70 ppb California Air Resources Board (CARB) ambient air quality standard (8-hour average). Previous studies indicate that both the local generation of ozone in the Basin and long-range transport from out-of-Basin sources are important in contributing to ozone exceedances, but little is known about the impact of meteorology on the distribution of ozone source regions. In order to develop a better understanding of the factors affecting ozone levels and sources in the Lake Tahoe Basin, this study combines observational data from a 2010 and 2012 summer field campaigns, HYSPLIT back trajectories, and WRF model output to examine the meteorological influences of ozone transport in the topographically complex Lake Tahoe Basin. Findings from the field work portions of this study include enhanced background ozone levels at higher elevations, the local circulation pattern of lake breezes occurring at Lake level sites, and an indication that ozone precursors are coming off the Lake. Our analysis also showed that if transport of ozone does occur, it is more likely to come from the San Joaquin Valley to the south rather than originate in the large cities to the west, such as Sacramento and San Francisco. Analysis of modeled PBL schemes as compared with observational data showed that the ACM2 PBL scheme best represented the geographical domain. The ACM2 PBL scheme was then used to show wind circulation patterns in the Lake Tahoe Basin and concluded that there is decent vertical mixing over the Basin and no indication of ozone transport from the west however some indication of transport from the east. Overall this study concludes that transport from the west is less significant than transport from the south and east, and that transport only influences ozone values at higher elevations. Within the Basin itself (at lower elevations), local factors

  7. Chapter 12: Sea Level Rise

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sweet, W. V.; Horton, R.; Kopp, R. E.; LeGrande, A. N.; Romanou, A.

    2017-01-01

    Global mean sea level (GMSL) has risen by about 7-8 inches (about 16-21 cm) since 1900, with about 3 of those inches (about 7 cm) occurring since 1993. Human-caused climate change has made a substantial contribution to GMSL rise since 1900, contributing to a rate of rise that is greater than during any preceding century in at least 2,800 years. Relative to the year 2000, GMSL is very likely to rise by 0.3-0.6 feet (9-18 cm) by 2030, 0.5-1.2 feet (15-38 cm) by 2050, and 1.0-4.3 feet (30-130 cm) by 2100. Future pathways have little effect on projected GMSL rise in the first half of the century, but significantly affect projections for the second half of the century. Emerging science regarding Antarctic ice sheet stability suggests that, for high emission scenarios, a GMSL rise exceeding 8 feet (2.4 m) by 2100 is physically possible, although the probability of such an extreme outcome cannot currently be assessed. Regardless of pathway, it is extremely likely that GMSL rise will continue beyond 2100. Relative sea level (RSL) rise in this century will vary along U.S. coastlines due, in part, to changes in Earth's gravitational field and rotation from melting of land ice, changes in ocean circulation, and vertical land motion (very high confidence). For almost all future GMSL rise scenarios, RSL rise is likely to be greater than the global average in the U.S. Northeast and the western Gulf of Mexico. In intermediate and low GMSL rise scenarios, RSL rise is likely to be less than the global average in much of the Pacific Northwest and Alaska. For high GMSL rise scenarios, RSL rise is likely to be higher than the global average along all U.S. coastlines outside Alaska. Almost all U.S. coastlines experience more than global mean sea level rise in response to Antarctic ice loss, and thus would be particularly affected under extreme GMSL rise scenarios involving substantial Antarctic mass loss. As sea levels have risen, the number of tidal floods each year that cause minor

  8. Contemporary sea level rise.

    PubMed

    Cazenave, Anny; Llovel, William

    2010-01-01

    Measuring sea level change and understanding its causes has considerably improved in the recent years, essentially because new in situ and remote sensing observations have become available. Here we report on most recent results on contemporary sea level rise. We first present sea level observations from tide gauges over the twentieth century and from satellite altimetry since the early 1990s. We next discuss the most recent progress made in quantifying the processes causing sea level change on timescales ranging from years to decades, i.e., thermal expansion of the oceans, land ice mass loss, and land water-storage change. We show that for the 1993-2007 time span, the sum of climate-related contributions (2.85 +/- 0.35 mm year(-1)) is only slightly less than altimetry-based sea level rise (3.3 +/- 0.4 mm year(-1)): approximately 30% of the observed rate of rise is due to ocean thermal expansion and approximately 55% results from land ice melt. Recent acceleration in glacier melting and ice mass loss from the ice sheets increases the latter contribution up to 80% for the past five years. We also review the main causes of regional variability in sea level trends: The dominant contribution results from nonuniform changes in ocean thermal expansion.

  9. Contribution of climate-driven change in continental water storage to recent sea-level rise

    PubMed Central

    Milly, P. C. D.; Cazenave, A.; Gennero, C.

    2003-01-01

    Using a global model of continental water balance, forced by interannual variations in precipitation and near-surface atmospheric temperature for the period 1981–1998, we estimate the sea-level changes associated with climate-driven changes in storage of water as snowpack, soil water, and ground water; storage in ice sheets and large lakes is not considered. The 1981–1998 trend is estimated to be 0.12 mm/yr, and substantial interannual fluctuations are inferred; for 1993–1998, the trend is 0.25 mm/yr. At the decadal time scale, the terrestrial contribution to eustatic (i.e., induced by mass exchange) sea-level rise is significantly smaller than the estimated steric (i.e., induced by density changes) trend for the same period, but is not negligibly small. In the model the sea-level rise is driven mainly by a downtrend in continental precipitation during the study period, which we believe was generated by natural variability in the climate system. PMID:14576277

  10. Contribution of climate-driven change in continental water storage to recent sea-level rise

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Milly, P.C.D.; Cazenave, A.; Gennero, M.C.

    2003-01-01

    Using a global model of continental water balance, forced by interannual variations in precipitation and near-surface atmospheric temperature for the period 1981-1998, we estimate the sea-level changes associated with climate-driven changes in storage of water as snowpack, soil water, and ground water; storage in ice sheets and large lakes is not considered. The 1981-1998 trend is estimated to be 0.12 mm/yr, and substantial interannual fluctuations are inferred; for 1993-1998, the trend is 0.25 mm/yr. At the decadal time scale, the terrestrial contribution to eustatic (i.e., induced by mass exchange) sea-level rise is significantly smaller than the estimated steric (i.e., induced by density changes) trend for the same period, but is not negligibly small. In the model the sea-level rise is driven mainly by a downtrend in continental precipitation during the study period, which we believe was generated by natural variability in the climate system.

  11. A 3500 14C yr High-Resolution Record of Water-Level Changes in Lake Titicaca, Bolivia/Peru

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abbott, Mark B.; Binford, Michael W.; Brenner, Mark; Kelts, Kerry R.

    1997-03-01

    Sediment cores collected from the southern basin of Lake Titicaca (Bolivia/Peru) on a transect from 4.6 m above overflow level to 15.1 m below overflow level are used to identify a new century-scale chronology of Holocene lake-level variations. The results indicate that lithologic and geochemical analyses on a transect of cores can be used to identify and date century-scale lake-level changes. Detailed sedimentary analyses of subfacies and radiocarbon dating were conducted on four representative cores. A chronology based on 60 accelerator mass spectrometer radiocarbon measurements constrains the timing of water-level fluctuations. Two methods were used to estimate the 14C reservoir age. Both indicate that it has remained nearly constant at ˜250 14C yr during the late Holocene. Core studies based on lithology and geochemistry establish the timing and magnitude of five periods of low lake level, implying negative moisture balance for the northern Andean altiplano over the last 3500 cal yr. Between 3500 and 3350 cal yr B.P., a transition from massive, inorganic-clay facies to laminated organic-matter-rich silts in each of the four cores signals a water-level rise after a prolonged mid-Holocene dry phase. Evidence of other significant low lake levels occurs 2900-2800, 2400-2200, 2000-1700, and 900-500 cal yr B.P. Several of the low lake levels coincided with cultural changes in the region, including the collapse of the Tiwanaku civilization.

  12. Safety Rises to New Levels.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lafo, Joseph; Robillard, Marc

    2001-01-01

    Explains how high-rise residence halls can provide high-level safety and security at colleges and universities. Boston University is used to illustrate high-rise security and fire protection issues. (GR)

  13. Dendrochronology and lakes: using tree-rings of alder to reconstruct lake levels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van der Maaten, Ernst; Buras, Allan; Scharnweber, Tobias; Simard, Sonia; Kaiser, Knut; Lorenz, Sebastian; van der Maaten-Theunissen, Marieke; Wilmking, Martin

    2014-05-01

    Climate change is considered a major threat for ecosystems around the world. Assessing its effects is challenging, amongst others, as we are unsure how ecosystems may respond to climate conditions they were not exposed to before. However, increased insight may be obtained by analyzing responses of ecosystems to past climate variability. In this respect, lake ecosystems appear as valuable sentinels, because they provide direct and indirect indicators of change through effects of climate. Lake-level fluctuations of closed catchments, for example, reflect a dynamic water balance, provide detailed insight in past moisture variations, and thereby allow for assessments of effects of anticipated climate change. Up to now, lake-level data are mostly obtained from gauging records and reconstructions from sediments and landforms. However, these records are in many cases only available over relatively short time periods, and, since geoscientific work is highly demanding, lake-level reconstructions are lacking for many regions. Here, we present and discuss an alternative method to reconstruct lake levels, which is based on tree-ring data of black alder (Alnus glutinosa L.). This tree species tolerates permanently waterlogged and temporally flooded conditions (i.e. riparian vegetation), and is often found along lakeshores. As the yearly growth of trees varies depending upon the experienced environmental conditions, annual rings of black alder from lakeshore vegetation likely capture information on variations in water table, and may therefore be used to reconstruct lake levels. Although alder is a relatively short-lived tree species, the frequent use of its' decay-resistant wood in foundations of historical buildings offers the possibility of extending living tree-chronologies back in time for several centuries. In this study, the potential to reconstruct lake-level fluctuations from tree-ring chronologies of black alder is explored for three lake ecosystems in the Mecklenburg

  14. Coastal change-potential assessment of Sleeping Bear Dunes, Indiana Dunes, and Apostle Islands National Lakeshores to lake-level changes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pendleton, Elizabeth A.; Thieler, E. Robert; Williams, S. Jeffress

    2007-01-01

    A change-potential index (CPI) was used to map the susceptibility of the shoreline to future lake-level change within Apostle Islands, Indiana Dunes, and Sleeping Bear Dunes National Lakeshores (NL) along Lake Superior and Lake Michigan. The CPI in the Great Lakes setting ranks the following in terms of their physical contribution to lake-level related coastal change: geomorphology, regional coastal slope, rate and direction (i.e., rise and fall) of relative lake-level change, historical shoreline change rates, annual ice cover and mean significant wave height. The rankings for each input variable were combined, and an index value calculated for 1-minute bins covering the parks. The CPI highlights those regions where the physical effects of lake-level and coastal change might be the greatest. This approach combines the coastal system's potential for change with its natural ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions, yielding a quantitative, although relative, measure of the parks' natural susceptibility to the effects of lake-level variation. The CPI provides an objective technique for evaluation and long-term planning by scientists and park managers. The CPI is applied to the National Lakeshores of Apostle Islands, Indiana Dunes, and Sleeping Bear Dunes to test this methodology in lake settings. The National Lakeshores in this study consist of sand and gravel beaches, rock outcrops, and dune and glacial bluffs. The areas within these Great Lakes parks that are likely to experience the most lake-level-related coastal change are areas of unconsolidated sediment where regional coastal slope is low and wave energy is high.

  15. Mercury contamination level and speciation inventory in Lakes Titicaca & Uru-Uru (Bolivia): Current status and future trends.

    PubMed

    Guédron, S; Point, D; Acha, D; Bouchet, S; Baya, P A; Tessier, E; Monperrus, M; Molina, C I; Groleau, A; Chauvaud, L; Thebault, J; Amice, E; Alanoca, L; Duwig, C; Uzu, G; Lazzaro, X; Bertrand, A; Bertrand, S; Barbraud, C; Delord, K; Gibon, F M; Ibanez, C; Flores, M; Fernandez Saavedra, P; Ezpinoza, M E; Heredia, C; Rocha, F; Zepita, C; Amouroux, D

    2017-12-01

    Aquatic ecosystems of the Bolivian Altiplano (∼3800 m a.s.l.) are characterized by extreme hydro-climatic constrains (e.g., high UV-radiations and low oxygen) and are under the pressure of increasing anthropogenic activities, unregulated mining, agricultural and urban development. We report here a complete inventory of mercury (Hg) levels and speciation in the water column, atmosphere, sediment and key sentinel organisms (i.e., plankton, fish and birds) of two endorheic Lakes of the same watershed differing with respect to their size, eutrophication and contamination levels. Total Hg (THg) and monomethylmercury (MMHg) concentrations in filtered water and sediment of Lake Titicaca are in the lowest range of reported levels in other large lakes worldwide. Downstream, Hg levels are 3-10 times higher in the shallow eutrophic Lake Uru-Uru than in Lake Titicaca due to high Hg inputs from the surrounding mining region. High percentages of MMHg were found in the filtered and unfiltered water rising up from <1 to ∼50% THg from the oligo/hetero-trophic Lake Titicaca to the eutrophic Lake Uru-Uru. Such high %MMHg is explained by a high in situ MMHg production in relation to the sulfate rich substrate, the low oxygen levels of the water column, and the stabilization of MMHg due to abundant ligands present in these alkaline waters. Differences in MMHg concentrations in water and sediments compartments between Lake Titicaca and Uru-Uru were found to mirror the offset in MMHg levels that also exist in their respective food webs. This suggests that in situ MMHg baseline production is likely the main factor controlling MMHg levels in fish species consumed by the local population. Finally, the increase of anthropogenic pressure in Lake Titicaca may probably enhance eutrophication processes which favor MMHg production and thus accumulation in water and biota. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Analysis of water level variation of lakes and reservoirs in Xinjiang, China using ICESat laser altimetry data (2003–2009)

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Hongxing; Chen, Yaning; Shu, Song; Wu, Qiusheng; Wang, Shujie

    2017-01-01

    This study utilizes ICESat Release 33 GLA14 data to analyse water level variation of Xinjiang’s lakes and reservoirs from 2003 to 2009. By using Landsat images, lakes and reservoirs with area larger than 1 km2 are numerically delineated with a software tool. Based on ICESat observations, we analyse the characteristics of water level variation in different geographic environments, as well as investigate the reasons for the variation. Results indicate that climatic warming contributes to rising water levels in lakes in mountainous areas, especially for lakes that are recharged by snow and glacial melting. For lakes in oases, the water levels are affected jointly by human activity and climate change, while the water levels of reservoirs are mainly affected by human activity. Comparing the annual average rates of water levels, those of lakes are higher than those of reservoirs in oasis areas. The main reasons for the decreasing water levels in desert regions are the reduction of recharged runoff and high evaporation. By analysing the variation of water levels and water volume in different geologic environments, it is found that water level and volume increased in mountainous regions, and decreased in oasis regions and desert regions. Finding also demonstrate that decreasing volume is greater than increasing volume, which results in decreasing total volume of Xinjiang lakes and reservoirs. PMID:28873094

  17. Interannual lake level fluctuations (1993 1999) in Africa from Topex/Poseidon: connections with ocean atmosphere interactions over the Indian Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mercier, Franck; Cazenave, Anny; Maheu, Caroline

    2002-04-01

    Water level fluctuations of continental lakes are related to regional to global scale climate changes. Water level fluctuations reflect variations in evaporation and precipitation over the lake area and its catchment area. Over such inland water bodies, the satellite altimetry technique offers both a world-wide coverage and a satisfying accuracy. We present here results of lake level variations of 12 African lakes based on 7 years of Topex/Poseidon (T/P) altimetry data acquired between 1993 and 1999. Among the 12 African lakes presented in this study, three are reservoirs whose level fluctuations are mainly driven by anthropogenic usage of the water. Either closed or open, the nine remaining lakes are sensitive indicators of the climate evolution over Africa during the 1990s. Seasonal signals of each lake are clearly identified and filtered out to focus on the interannual fluctuations. Clear correlated regional variations are reported among the east African lakes: several lakes exhibit a regular level decrease between 1993 and 1997, probably due to intense droughts. However, the most spectacular feature is an abrupt water level rise occurring in late 1997-early 1998 and affecting most of the lakes located within the Rift Valley. This major anomalous pattern, explained by a large excess rainfall anomaly occurring in late 1997, is quantified in both space and time domains through an EOF analysis of the lake level height time series. The spatial distribution of the leading mode of lake level height correlates with the dominant mode of precipitation computed over the same time span. Nevertheless, similar rainfall anomaly, but with lesser intensity, occurred in late 1994 without any noticeable consequence on lake level. The precipitation anomaly appears related to the equatorial Indian Ocean warming reported during the 1997-1998 ENSO event.

  18. Stratigraphic framework and lake level history of Lake Kivu, East African Rift

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wood, Douglas A.; Scholz, Christopher A.

    2017-10-01

    Sediment cores and seismic reflection data acquired from the eastern basin of Lake Kivu, Rwanda reveal extensive limnologic variations due to changes in regional climate and basin structure. The eastern basin of the lake contains a sedimentary wedge which is > 1.5 km in thickness on its western side, and basal sediments are estimated to be at least 1.5 million years old. Sediments are likely to be thicker and older than this in the northern, Congolese basin of the lake. Above the ∼300 m iosbath only a thin layer of Holocene sediments are observed indication that this may have been the lake's high stand prior to that time. There are at least three erosional unconformities interpreted as desiccation or near-desiccation events which are estimated to have occurred at ∼475 ka, ∼100 ka, and ∼20 ka; the two most recent of these low stages likely developed during the African Megadrought and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) periods. Following the LGM, the water levels rose to form a ∼100 m deep lake with its surface ∼370 m below the current lake level. The lake remained near that level for several thousand years and during this time the Virunga Volcanic Province expanded. At ∼12.2 ka a change to wetter climate conditions rapidly filled the lake to spill out of the Bukavu Bay basin southward toward Lake Tanganyika. Tephra sampled from the cores show that there have been at least 24 large local volcanic events since the early Holocene lake transgression.

  19. Dramatic and long-term lake level changes in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from Cryosat-2 altimeter: validation and augmentation by results from repeat altimeter missions and satellite imagery

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hwang, Cheinway; Huang, YongRuei; Cheng, Ys; Shen, WenBin; Pan, Yuanjin

    2017-04-01

    The mean elevation of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) exceeds 4000 m. Lake levels in the QTP are less affected by human activities than elsewhere, and may better reflect the state of contemporary climate change. Here ground-based lake level measurements are rare. Repeat altimeter missions, particularly those from the TOPEX and ERS series of altimetry, have provided long-term lake level observations in the QTP, but their large cross-track distances allow only few lakes to be monitored. In contrast, the Cryosat-2 altimeter, equipped with the new sensor SIRAL (interferometric/ synthetic aperture radar altimeter), provides a much better ranging accuracy and a finer spatial coverage than these repeated missions, and can detect water level changes over a large number of lakes in the QTP. In this study, Cryosat-2 data are used to determine lake level changes over 75˚E-100˚E and 28˚N-37.5˚N, where Cryosat-2 covers 60 lakes and SARAL/ AltiKa covers 32 lakes from 2013 to 2016. Over a lake, Cryosat-2 in different cycles can pass through different spots of the lake, making the numbers of observations non-uniform and requiring corrections for lake slopes. Four cases are investigated to cope with these situations: (1) neglecting inconsistency in data volume and lake slopes (2) considering data volume, (3) considering lake slopes only, and (4) considering both data volume and lake slopes. The CRYOSAT-2 result is then compared with the result from the SARAL to determine the best case. Because Cryosat-2 is available from 2010 to 2016, Jason-2 data are used to fill gaps between the time series of Cryosat-2 and ICESat (2003-2009) to obtain >10 years of lake level series. The Cryosat-2 result shows dramatic lake level rises in Lakes Kusai, Zhuoaihu and Salt in 2011 caused by floods. Landsat satellite imagery assists the determination and interpretation of such rises.

  20. Hydrogeochemical and lake level changes in the Ethiopian Rift

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alemayehu, Tamiru; Ayenew, Tenalem; Kebede, Seifu

    2006-01-01

    The Ethiopian Rift is characterized by a chain of lakes varying in size, hydrological and hydrogeological settings. The rift lakes and feeder rivers are used for irrigation, soda extraction, commercial fish farming and recreation, and support a wide variety of endemic birds and wild animals. The level of some lakes shows dramatic changes in the last few decades. Lakes Abiyata and Beseka, both heavily impacted by human activities, show contrasting lake level trends: the level of Abiyata has dropped by about 5 m over three decades while Beseka has expanded from an area of 2.5-40 km 2 over the same span of time. Changes in lake levels are accompanied by dilution in ionic concentration of lake Beseka and increase in salinity of lake Abiyata. Although the principal hydrogeochemical process in the rift lakes is controlled by the input and output conditions and carbonate precipitation, anthropogenic factors such as water diversion for irrigation and soda ash extraction played important role. The recent changes appear to have grave environmental consequences on the fragile rift ecosystem, which demands an integrated basin-wide water management practice. This paper demonstrates the drastic changes of lake levels and associated changes in lake chemistry of the two studied lakes. It also gives the regional hydrogeochemical picture of the other rift lakes that do not show significant response due to climate change and human impact.

  1. Quantifying the impact of bathymetric changes on the hydrological regimes in a large floodplain lake: Poyang Lake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yao, Jing; Zhang, Qi; Ye, Xuchun; Zhang, Dan; Bai, Peng

    2018-06-01

    The hydrological regime of a lake is largely dependent on its bathymetry. A dramatic water level reduction has occurred in Poyang Lake in recent years, coinciding with significant bed erosion. Few studies have focused on the influence of bathymetric changes on the hydrological regime in such a complex river-lake floodplain system. This study combined hydrological data and a physically based hydrodynamic model to quantify the influence of the bathymetric changes (1998-2010) on the water level spatiotemporal distribution in Poyang Lake, based on a dry year (2006), a wet year (2010) and an average year (2000-2010). The following conclusions can be drawn from the results of this study: (1) The bed erosion of the northern outlet channel averaged 3 m, resulting in a decrease in the water level by 1.2-2 m in the northern channels (the most significantly influenced areas) and approximately 0.3 m in the central lake areas during low-level periods. The water levels below 16 m and 14 m were significantly affected during the rising period and recession period, respectively. The water level reduction was enhanced due to lower water levels. (2) The water surface profiles adjusted, and the rising and recession rates of the water level increased by 0.5-3.1 cm/d at the lake outlet. The bathymetric influence extended across the entire lake due to the emptying effect, resulting in a change in the water level distribution. The average annual outflow increased by 6.8%. (3) The bathymetric changes contributed approximately 14.4% to the extreme low water level in autumn 2006 and enhanced the drought in the dry season. This study quantified the impact of the bathymetric changes on the lake water levels, thereby providing a better understanding of the potential effects of continued sand mining operations and providing scientific explanations for the considerable variations in the hydrological regimes of Poyang Lake. Moreover, this study attempts to provide a reference for the assessment of

  2. Annual maximum and minimum lake levels for Indiana, 1942-85

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fowler, Kathleen K.

    1988-01-01

    Indiana has many natural and manmade lakes. Lake-level data are available for 217 lakes. These data were collected during water years 1942-85 by use of staff gages and, more recently, continuous recorders. The period of record at each site ranges from 1 to 43 years. Data from the lake stations have been compiled, and maximum and minimum lake levels for each year of record are reported. In addition to annual maximum and minimum lake levels, each lake station is described by gage location, surface area, drainage area, period of record, datum of gage, gage type, established legal level, lake level control, inlets and outlets, and extremes for the period of record. 

  3. Importance of coastal change variables in determining vulnerability to sea- and lake-level change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pendleton, E.A.; Thieler, E.R.; Williams, S.J.

    2010-01-01

    In 2001, the U.S. Geological Survey began conducting scientific assessments of coastal vulnerability to potential future sea- and lake-level changes in 22 National Park Service sea- and lakeshore units. Coastal park units chosen for the assessment included a variety of geological and physical settings along the U.S. Atlantic, Pacific, Gulf of Mexico, Gulf of Alaska, Caribbean, and Great Lakes shorelines. This research is motivated by the need to understand and anticipate coastal changes caused by accelerating sea-level rise, as well as lake-level changes caused by climate change, over the next century. The goal of these assessments is to provide information that can be used to make long-term (decade to century) management decisions. Here we analyze the results of coastal vulnerability assessments for several coastal national park units. Index-based assessments quantify the likelihood that physical changes may occur based on analysis of the following variables: tidal range, ice cover, wave height, coastal slope, historical shoreline change rate, geomorphology, and historical rate of relative sea- or lake-level change. This approach seeks to combine a coastal system's susceptibility to change with its natural ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions, and it provides a measure of the system's potential vulnerability to the effects of sea- or lake-level change. Assessments for 22 park units are combined to evaluate relationships among the variables used to derive the index. Results indicate that Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico parks have the highest vulnerability rankings relative to other park regions. A principal component analysis reveals that 99% of the index variability can be explained by four variables: geomorphology, regional coastal slope, water-level change rate, and mean significant wave height. Tidal range, ice cover, and historical shoreline change are not as important when the index is evaluated at large spatial scales (thousands of kilometers

  4. A population on the rise: The origin of deepwater sculpin in Lake Ontario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Welsh, Amy B.; Scribner, Kim T.; Stott, Wendylee; Walsh, Maureen

    2017-01-01

    Deepwater sculpin, Myoxocephalus thompsonii, were thought to have been extirpated from Lake Ontario. However, in recent years, abundance has increased and recruitment has been documented. There are two hypotheses concerning the origin of the current Lake Ontario deepwater sculpin population. First, individuals from the upper Great Lakes may have recolonized Lake Ontario. Alternatively, the Lake Ontario population may have not been extirpated, and the remnant population has recovered naturally. To test these hypotheses, eight microsatellite loci were used to analyze samples from the current Lake Ontario population, museum specimens from the historic Lake Ontario population, and current upper Great Lakes populations. The genetic data suggest that historically throughout the Great Lakes, deepwater sculpin exhibited low levels of spatial genetic structure. Approximate Bayesian Computation analyses support the hypothesis that the current Lake Ontario population is more closely related to populations in the upper Great Lakes than to the historic Lake Ontario samples, indicating that the current Lake Ontario population likely resulted from recolonization from the Upper Great Lakes. The current Lake Ontario population has reduced allelic diversity relative to upper Great Lakes populations, indicating a possible founder effect. This study demonstrates the role life history variation can play in recolonization success. The pelagic larval phase of the deepwater sculpin allowed recolonization of Lake Ontario via passive larval drift.

  5. Lake Erie Water Level Study. Main Report.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1981-07-01

    of recreational beach activities. Examples include: Rondeau, Long Point and Sandbanks in Canada and Hamlin (New York), Presque Isle ( Pennsylvania ...be most affected by lake level changes. Long Point, Rondeau, Sandusky, and Presque Isle Bays are, due to their shallow nature and sand spit formation...AD-AI14 582 INTERNATIONAL LAKE ERIE REGULATION STUDY BOARD F/9 13/2 LAKE ERIE WATER LEVEL STUDY. MAIN REPORT.(U) UNCLASSIFIED N1.3 iE~hE

  6. Ice-dammed lake drainage evolution at Russell Glacier, west Greenland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carrivick, Jonathan L.; Tweed, Fiona S.; Ng, Felix; Quincey, Duncan J.; Mallalieu, Joseph; Ingeman-Nielsen, Thomas; Mikkelsen, Andreas B.; Palmer, Steven J.; Yde, Jacob C.; Homer, Rachel; Russell, Andrew J.; Hubbard, Alun

    2017-11-01

    Glaciological and hydraulic factors that control the timing and mechanisms of glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) remain poorly understood. This study used measurements of lake level at fifteen minute intervals and known lake bathymetry to calculate lake outflow during two GLOF events from the northern margin of Russell Glacier, west Greenland. We used measured ice surface elevation, interpolated subglacial topography and likely conduit geometry to inform a melt enlargement model of the outburst evolution. The model was tuned to best-fit the hydrograph’s rising limb and timing of peak discharge in both events; it achieved Mean Absolute Errors of < 5 %. About one third of the way through the rising limb, conduit melt enlargement became the dominant drainage mechanism. Lake water temperature, which strongly governed the enlargement rate, preconditioned the high peak discharge and short duration of these floods. We hypothesize that both GLOFs were triggered by ice dam flotation, and localised hydraulic jacking sustained most of their early-stage outflow, explaining the particularly rapid water egress in comparison to that recorded at other ice-marginal lakes. As ice overburden pressure relative to lake water hydraulic head diminished, flow became confined to a subglacial conduit. This study has emphasised the inter-play between ice dam thickness and lake level, drainage timing, lake water temperature and consequently rising stage lake outflow and flood evolution.

  7. Climatology, hydrology, and simulation of an emergency outlet, Devils Lake basin, North Dakota

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wiche, Gregg J.; Vecchia, A.V.; Osborne, Leon; Wood, Carrie M.; Fay, James T.

    2000-01-01

    Devils Lake is a natural lake in northeastern North Dakota that is the terminus of a nearly 4,000-square-mile subbasin in the Red River of the North Basin. The lake has not reached its natural spill elevation to the Sheyenne River (a tributary of the Red River of the North) in recorded history. However, geologic evidence indicates a spill occurred sometime within the last 1,800 years. From 1993 to 1999, Devils Lake rose 24.5 feet and, at the present (August 2000), is about 13 feet below the natural spill elevation. The recent lake-level rise has caused flood damages exceeding $300 million and triggered development of future flood-control options to prevent further infrastructure damage and reduce the risk of a potentially catastrophic uncontrolled spill. Construction of an emergency outlet from the west end of Devils Lake to the Sheyenne River is one flood-control option being considered. This report describes the climatologic and hydrologic causes of the recent lake level rise, provides information on the potential for continued lake-level rises during the next 15 years, and describes the potential effectiveness of an emergency outlet in reducing future lake levels and in reducing the risk of an uncontrolled spill. The potential effects of an outlet on downstream water quantity and quality in the upper Sheyenne River also are described.

  8. Hydrologic-energy balance constraints on the Holocene lake-level history of lake Titicaca, South America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rowe, H. D.; Dunbar, R. B.

    2004-09-01

    A basin-scale hydrologic-energy balance model that integrates modern climatological, hydrological, and hypsographic observations was developed for the modern Lake Titicaca watershed (northern Altiplano, South America) and operated under variable conditions to understand controls on post-glacial changes in lake level. The model simulates changes in five environmental variables (air temperature, cloud fraction, precipitation, relative humidity, and land surface albedo). Relatively small changes in three meteorological variables (mean annual precipitation, temperature, and/or cloud fraction) explain the large mid-Holocene lake-level decrease (˜85 m) inferred from seismic reflection profiling and supported by sediment-based paleoproxies from lake sediments. Climatic controls that shape the present-day Altiplano and the sediment-based record of Holocene lake-level change are combined to interpret model-derived lake-level simulations in terms of changes in the mean state of ENSO and its impact on moisture transport to the Altiplano.

  9. Sea level rise with warming above 2 degree

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Jackson, Luke; Riva, Riccardo; Grinsted, Aslak; Moore, John

    2017-04-01

    Holding the increase in the global average temperature to below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C, has been agreed by the representatives of the 196 parties of United Nations, as an appropriate threshold beyond which climate change risks become unacceptably high. Sea level rise is one of the most damaging aspects of warming climate for the more than 600 million people living in low-elevation coastal areas less than 10 meters above sea level. Fragile coastal ecosystems and increasing concentrations of population and economic activity in coastal areas, are reasons why future sea level rise is one of the most damaging aspects of the warming climate. Furthermore, sea level is set to continue to rise for centuries after greenhouse gas emissions concentrations are stabilised due to system inertia and feedback time scales. Impact, risk, adaptation policies and long-term decision making in coastal areas depend on regional and local sea level rise projections and local projections can differ substantially from the global one. Here we provide probabilistic sea level rise projections for the global coastline with warming above the 2 degree goal. A warming of 2°C makes global ocean rise on average by 20 cm, but more than 90% of coastal areas will experience greater rises, 40 cm along the Atlantic coast of North America and Norway, due to ocean dynamics. If warming continues above 2°C, then by 2100 sea level will rise with speeds unprecedented throughout human civilization, reaching 0.9 m (median), and 80% of the global coastline will exceed the global ocean sea level rise upper 95% confidence limit of 1.8 m. Coastal communities of rapidly expanding cities in the developing world, small island states, and vulnerable tropical coastal ecosystems will have a very limited time after mid-century to adapt to sea level rises.

  10. Late quaternary changes in lakes, vegetation, and climate in the Bonneville Basin reconstructed from sediment cores from Great Salt Lake: Chapter 11

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thompson, Robert S.; Oviatt, Charles G.; Honke, Jeffrey S.; McGeehin, John

    2016-01-01

    Sediment cores from Great Salt Lake (GSL) provide the basis for reconstructing changes in lakes, vegetation, and climate for the last ~ 40 cal ka. Initially, the coring site was covered by a shallow saline lake and surrounded by Artemisia steppe or steppe-tundra under a cold and dry climate. As Lake Bonneville began to rise (from ~ 30 to 28 cal ka), Pinus and subalpine conifer pollen percentages increased and Artemisia declined, suggesting the onset of wetter conditions. Lake Bonneville oscillated near the Stansbury shoreline between ~ 26 and ~ 24 cal ka, rose to the Bonneville shoreline by ~ 18 cal ka, and then fell to the Provo shoreline, which it occupied until ~ 15 cal ka. Vegetation changed during this time span, albeit not always with the same direction or amplitude as the lake. The pollen percentages of Pinus and subalpine conifers were high from ~ 25 to 21.5 cal ka, indicating cool and moist conditions during the Stansbury oscillation and for much of the rise toward the Bonneville shoreline. Pinus percentages then decreased and Artemisia became codominant, suggesting drier and perhaps colder conditions from ~ 21 to ~ 15 cal ka, when Lake Bonneville was at or near its highest levels.Lake Bonneville declined to a low level by ~ 13 cal ka, while Pinus pollen percentages increased, indicating that conditions remained cooler and moister than today. During the Younger Dryas interval, the brief Gilbert episode rise in lake level was followed by a shallow lake with a stratified water column. This lake rise occurred as Pinus pollen percentages were declining and those of Artemisia were rising (reflecting increasingly dry conditions), after which Artemisia pollen was at very high levels (suggesting cold and dry conditions) for a brief period.Since ~ 10.6 cal ka lacustrine conditions have resembled those of present-day GSL. Pollen spectra for the period from ~ 10.6 to 7.2 cal ka have low levels of conifer pollen and high (for the

  11. Seismic Data Reveal Lake-Level Changes in Lake Issyk-Kul, Kyrgyzstan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gebhardt, C.; Spiess, V.; Keil, H.; Sauermilch, I.; Oberhänsli, H.; Abdrakhmatov, K.; De Batist, M. A.; Naudts, L.; De Mol, L.

    2013-12-01

    Lake Issyk-Kul is located in an intramontane basin of the Tien Shan, Kyrgyzstan, Central Asia, at 1607 m above sea level. It has formed in a tectonically active region with W-E striking major thrust zones both N and S of the lake. The lake is elongated with 180 km in W-E and 60 km in S-N direction and a water depth of roughly 670 m at its central plain. With a surface area of 6232 km2 and a total water colume of around 1736 km3, Lake Issyk-Kul is the second largest lake in the higher altitudes (De Batist et al., 2002). Two large delta areas have formed at the E and W end. Steep slopes at both the N and S shore separate rather narrow, shallow shelf areas from the central deeper plain. First seismic data of lake Issyk-Kul were acquired in 1982 by the Moscow University with a total of 31 profiles across the lake. In 1997 and 2001, a second and third seismic survey of the lake were carried out by the group of Marc De Batist (Ghent, Belgium) in cooperation with the Royal Museum of Central Africa (Tervuren, Belgium) and the SBRAS (Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Novosibirsk, Russia) using a sparker system with a single-channel streamer. These surveys were recently completed by a fourth expedition carried out by the University of Bremen in April 2013. During this expedition, 33 additional profiles were acquired with an airgun and a multi-channel streamer. The sparker surveys mostly cover the delta and shelf areas in high detail, while the airgun survey covers the deeper parts of the lake with penetration beyond the first multiple. Bathymetry data reveal that at the delta areas, the shelf is divided into two parts. The shallower comprises the part down to 110 m water depth with an average inclination of 0.5°, while the deeper part reaches from 110 m to 300 m water depth with an average slope inclination of 1°. Incised paleo-river channels of up to 2-3 km width and 50 m depth are visible both on the eastern and western shelf, but are limited to the

  12. Monitoring Lake and Reservoir Level: Satellite Observations, Modeling and Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ricko, M.; Birkett, C. M.; Adler, R. F.; Carton, J.

    2013-12-01

    Satellite measurements of lake and reservoir water levels complement in situ observations by providing stage information for un-gauged basins and by filling data gaps in gauge records. However, different satellite radar altimeter-derived continental water level products may differ significantly owing to choice of satellites and data processing methods. To explore the impacts of these differences, a direct comparison between three different altimeter-based surface water level estimates (USDA/NASA GRLM, LEGOS and ESA-DMU) will be presented and products validated with lake level gauge time series for lakes and reservoirs of a variety of sizes and conditions. The availability of satellite-based rainfall (i.e., TRMM and GPCP) and satellite-based lake/reservoir levels offers exciting opportunities to estimate and monitor the hydrologic properties of the lake systems. Here, a simple water balance model is utilized to relate net freshwater flux on a catchment basin to lake/reservoir level. Focused on tropical lakes and reservoirs it allows a comparison of the flux to altimetric lake level estimates. The combined use of model, satellite-based rainfall, evaporation information and reanalysis products, can be used to output water-level hindcasts and seasonal future forecasts. Such a tool is fundamental for understanding present-day and future variations in lake/reservoir levels and enabling a better understand of climatic variations on inter-annual to inter-decadal time-scales. New model-derived water level estimates of lakes and reservoirs, on regional to global scales, would assist communities with interests in climate studies focusing on extreme events, such as floods and droughts, and be important for water resources management.

  13. Forecasting daily lake levels using artificial intelligence approaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kisi, Ozgur; Shiri, Jalal; Nikoofar, Bagher

    2012-04-01

    Accurate prediction of lake-level variations is important for planning, design, construction, and operation of lakeshore structures and also in the management of freshwater lakes for water supply purposes. In the present paper, three artificial intelligence approaches, namely artificial neural networks (ANNs), adaptive-neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), and gene expression programming (GEP), were applied to forecast daily lake-level variations up to 3-day ahead time intervals. The measurements at the Lake Iznik in Western Turkey, for the period of January 1961-December 1982, were used for training, testing, and validating the employed models. The results obtained by the GEP approach indicated that it performs better than ANFIS and ANNs in predicting lake-level variations. A comparison was also made between these artificial intelligence approaches and convenient autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models, which demonstrated the superiority of GEP, ANFIS, and ANN models over ARMA models.

  14. The rise and fall of Lake Bonneville between 45 and 10.5 ka

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Benson, L.V.; Lund, S.P.; Smoot, J.P.; Rhode, D.E.; Spencer, R.J.; Verosub, K.L.; Louderback, L.A.; Johnson, C.A.; Rye, R.O.; Negrini, R.M.

    2011-01-01

    A sediment core taken from the western edge of the Bonneville Basin has provided high-resolution proxy records of relative lake-size change for the period 45.1-10.5 calendar ka (hereafter ka). Age control was provided by a paleomagnetic secular variation (PSV)-based age model for Blue Lake core BL04-4. Continuous records of ??18O and total inorganic carbon (TIC) generally match an earlier lake-level envelope based on outcrops and geomorphic features, but with differences in the timing of some hydrologic events/states. The Stansbury Oscillation was found to consist of two oscillations centered on 25 and 24 ka. Lake Bonneville appears to have reached its geomorphic highstand and began spilling at 18.5 ka. The fall from the highstand to the Provo level occurred at 17.0 ka and the lake intermittently overflowed at the Provo level until 15.2 ka, at which time the lake fell again, bottoming out at ~14.7 ka. The lake also fell briefly below the Provo level at ~15.9 ka. Carbonate and ??18O data indicate that between 14.7 and 13.1 ka the lake slowly rose to the Gilbert shoreline and remained at about that elevation until 11.6 ka, when it fell again. Chemical and sedimentological data indicate that a marsh formed in the Blue Lake area at 10.5 ka.Relatively dry periods in the BL04-4 records are associated with Heinrich events H1-H4, suggesting that either the warming that closely followed a Heinrich event increased the evaporation rate in the Bonneville Basin and (or) that the core of the polar jet stream (PJS) shifted north of the Bonneville Basin in response to massive losses of ice from the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) during the Heinrich event. The second Stansbury Oscillation occurred during Heinrich event H2, and the Gilbert wet event occurred during the Younger Dryas cold interval. Several relatively wet events in BL04-4 occur during Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) warm events.The growth of the Bear River glacier between 32 and 17 ka paralleled changes in the values of proxy

  15. The social values at risk from sea-level rise

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Graham, Sonia, E-mail: sonia.graham@unimelb.edu.au; Barnett, Jon, E-mail: jbarn@unimelb.edu.au; Fincher, Ruth, E-mail: r.fincher@unimelb.edu.au

    Analysis of the risks of sea-level rise favours conventionally measured metrics such as the area of land that may be subsumed, the numbers of properties at risk, and the capital values of assets at risk. Despite this, it is clear that there exist many less material but no less important values at risk from sea-level rise. This paper re-theorises these multifarious social values at risk from sea-level rise, by explaining their diverse nature, and grounding them in the everyday practices of people living in coastal places. It is informed by a review and analysis of research on social values frommore » within the fields of social impact assessment, human geography, psychology, decision analysis, and climate change adaptation. From this we propose that it is the ‘lived values’ of coastal places that are most at risk from sea-level rise. We then offer a framework that groups these lived values into five types: those that are physiological in nature, and those that relate to issues of security, belonging, esteem, and self-actualisation. This framework of lived values at risk from sea-level rise can guide empirical research investigating the social impacts of sea-level rise, as well as the impacts of actions to adapt to sea-level rise. It also offers a basis for identifying the distribution of related social outcomes across populations exposed to sea-level rise or sea-level rise policies.« less

  16. Rising tides, rising gates: The complex ecogeomorphic response of coastal wetlands to sea-level rise and human interventions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sandi, Steven G.; Rodríguez, José F.; Saintilan, Neil; Riccardi, Gerardo; Saco, Patricia M.

    2018-04-01

    Coastal wetlands are vulnerable to submergence due to sea-level rise, as shown by predictions of up to 80% of global wetland loss by the end of the century. Coastal wetlands with mixed mangrove-saltmarsh vegetation are particularly vulnerable because sea-level rise can promote mangrove encroachment on saltmarsh, reducing overall wetland biodiversity. Here we use an ecogeomorphic framework that incorporates hydrodynamic effects, mangrove-saltmarsh dynamics, and soil accretion processes to assess the effects of control structures on wetland evolution. Migration and accretion patterns of mangrove and saltmarsh are heavily dependent on topography and control structures. We find that current management practices that incorporate a fixed gate for the control of mangrove encroachment are useful initially, but soon become ineffective due to sea-level rise. Raising the gate, to counteract the effects of sea level rise and promote suitable hydrodynamic conditions, excludes mangrove and maintains saltmarsh over the entire simulation period of 100 years

  17. Adapting to Rising Sea Level: A Florida Perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parkinson, Randall W.

    2009-07-01

    Global climate change and concomitant rising sea level will have a profound impact on Florida's coastal and marine systems. Sea-level rise will increase erosion of beaches, cause saltwater intrusion into water supplies, inundate coastal marshes and other important habitats, and make coastal property more vulnerable to erosion and flooding. Yet most coastal areas are currently managed under the premise that sea-level rise is not significant and the shorelines are static or can be fixed in place by engineering structures. The new reality of sea-level rise and extreme weather due to climate change requires a new style of planning and management to protect resources and reduce risk to humans. Scientists must: (1) assess existing coastal vulnerability to address short term management issues and (2) model future landscape change and develop sustainable plans to address long term planning and management issues. Furthermore, this information must be effectively transferred to planners, managers, and elected officials to ensure their decisions are based upon the best available information. While there is still some uncertainty regarding the details of rising sea level and climate change, development decisions are being made today which commit public and private investment in real estate and associated infrastructure. With a design life of 30 yrs to 75 yrs or more, many of these investments are on a collision course with rising sea level and the resulting impacts will be significant. In the near term, the utilization of engineering structures may be required, but these are not sustainable and must ultimately yield to "managed withdrawal" programs if higher sea-level elevations or rates of rise are forthcoming. As an initial step towards successful adaptation, coastal management and planning documents (i.e., comprehensive plans) must be revised to include reference to climate change and rising sea-level.

  18. Sea Level Rise Impacts On Infrastructure Vulnerability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pasqualini, D.; Mccown, A. W.; Backhaus, S.; Urban, N. M.

    2015-12-01

    Increase of global sea level is one of the potential consequences of climate change and represents a threat for the U.S.A coastal regions, which are highly populated and home of critical infrastructures. The potential danger caused by sea level rise may escalate if sea level rise is coupled with an increase in frequency and intensity of storms that may strike these regions. These coupled threats present a clear risk to population and critical infrastructure and are concerns for Federal, State, and particularly local response and recovery planners. Understanding the effect of sea level rise on the risk to critical infrastructure is crucial for long planning and for mitigating potential damages. In this work we quantify how infrastructure vulnerability to a range of storms changes due to an increase of sea level. Our study focuses on the Norfolk area of the U.S.A. We assess the direct damage of drinking water and wastewater facilities and the power sector caused by a distribution of synthetic hurricanes. In addition, our analysis estimates indirect consequences of these damages on population and economic activities accounting also for interdependencies across infrastructures. While projections unanimously indicate an increase in the rate of sea level rise, the scientific community does not agree on the size of this rate. Our risk assessment accounts for this uncertainty simulating a distribution of sea level rise for a specific climate scenario. Using our impact assessment results and assuming an increase of future hurricanes frequencies and intensities, we also estimate the expected benefits for critical infrastructure.

  19. High levels of MHC class II allelic diversity in lake trout from Lake Superior

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dorschner, M.O.; Duris, T.; Bronte, C.R.; Burnham-Curtis, M. K.; Phillips, R.B.

    2000-01-01

    Sequence variation in a 216 bp portion of the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) II B1 domain was examined in 74 individual lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) from different locations in Lake Superior. Forty-three alleles were obtained which encoded 71-72 amino acids of the mature protein. These sequences were compared with previous data obtained from five Pacific salmon species and Atlantic salmon using the same primers. Although all of the lake trout alleles clustered together in the neighbor-joining analysis of amino acid sequences, one amino acid allelic lineage was shared with Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar), a species in another genus which probably diverged from Salvelinus more than 10-20 million years ago. As shown previously in other salmonids, the level of nonsynonymous nucleotide substitution (d(N)) exceeded the level of synonymous substitution (d(S)). The level of nucleotide diversity at the MHC class II B1 locus was considerably higher in lake trout than in the Pacific salmon (genus Oncorhynchus). These results are consistent with the hypothesis that lake trout colonized Lake Superior from more than one refuge following the Wisconsin glaciation. Recent population bottlenecks may have reduced nucleotide diversity in Pacific salmon populations.

  20. Updating Maryland's sea-level rise projections

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Boesch, Donald F.; Atkinson, Larry P.; Boicourt, William C.; Boon, John D.; Cahoon, Donald R.; Dalrymple, Robert A.; Ezer, Tal; Horton, Benjamin P.; Johnson, Zoe P.; Kopp, Robert E.; Li, Ming; Moss, Richard H.; Parris, Adam; Sommerfield, Christopher K.

    2013-01-01

    With its 3,100 miles of tidal shoreline and low-lying rural and urban lands, “The Free State” is one of the most vulnerable to sea-level rise. Historically, Marylanders have long had to contend with rising water levels along its Chesapeake Bay and Atlantic Ocean and coastal bay shores. Shorelines eroded and low-relief lands and islands, some previously inhabited, were inundated. Prior to the 20th century, this was largely due to the slow sinking of the land since Earth’s crust is still adjusting to the melting of large masses of ice following the last glacial period. Over the 20th century, however, the rate of rise of the average level of tidal waters with respect to land, or relative sea-level rise, has increased, at least partially as a result of global warming. Moreover, the scientific evidence is compelling that Earth’s climate will continue to warm and its oceans will rise even more rapidly. Recognizing the scientific consensus around global climate change, the contribution of human activities to it, and the vulnerability of Maryland’s people, property, public investments, and natural resources, Governor Martin O’Malley established the Maryland Commission on Climate Change on April 20, 2007. The Commission produced a Plan of Action that included a comprehensive climate change impact assessment, a greenhouse gas reduction strategy, and strategies for reducing Maryland’s vulnerability to climate change. The Plan has led to landmark legislation to reduce the state’s greenhouse gas emissions and a variety of state policies designed to reduce energy consumption and promote adaptation to climate change.

  1. Changes in lake levels, salinity and the biological community of Great Salt Lake (Utah, USA), 1847-1987

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stephens, D.W.

    1990-01-01

    Great Salt Lake is the fourth largest terminal lake in the world, with an area of about 6000 square kilometers at its historic high elevation. Since its historic low elevation of 1277.52 meters in 1963, the lake has risen to a new historic high elevation of 1283.77 meters in 1986-1987, a net increase of about 6.25 meters. About 60 percent of this increase, 3.72 meters, has occurred since 1982 in response to greater than average precipitation and less than average evaporation. Variations in salinity have resulted in changes in the composition of the aquatic biological community which consists of bacteria, protozoa, brine shrimp and brine flies. These changes were particularly evident following the completion of a causeway in 1959 which divided the lake. Subsequent salinities in the north part of the lake have ranged from 16 to 29 percent and in the south part from 6 to 28 percent. Accompanying the rise in lake elevation from 1982 to 1987 have been large decreases in salinity of both parts of the lake. This has resulted in changes in the biota from obligate halophiles, such as Dunaliella salina and D. viridis, to opportunistic forms such as a blue-green alga (Nodularia spumigena). The distribution and abundance of brine shrimp (Artemia salina) in the lake also have followed closely the salinity. In 1986, when the salinity of the south part of the lake was about 6 percent, a population of brackish-water killifish (Lucania parva) was observed along the shore near inflow from a spring. ?? 1990 Kluwer Academic Publishers.

  2. Status of Lake Superior’s lower trophic levels

    EPA Science Inventory

    To meet the Fish Community Objectives set for Lake Superior by the Great Lakes Fishery Commission, a key factor is the condition of the lower food web that supports productivity of fisheries. To assess the condition of lower trophic levels and inform the Lake Superior Technical C...

  3. Directly dated MIS 3 lake-level record from Lake Manix, Mojave Desert, California, USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Reheis, Marith; Miller, David M.; McGeehin, John P.; Redwine, Joanna R.; Oviatt, Charles G.; Bright, Jordon E.

    2015-01-01

    An outcrop-based lake-level curve, constrained by ~ 70 calibrated 14C ages on Anodonta shells, indicates at least 8 highstands between 45 and 25 cal ka BP within 10 m of the 543-m upper threshold of Lake Manix in the Mojave Desert of southern California. Correlations of Manix highstands with ice, marine, and speleothem records suggest that at least the youngest three highstands coincide with Dansgaard–Oeschger (D–O) stadials and Heinrich events 3 and 4. The lake-level record is consistent with results from speleothem studies in the Southwest that indicate cool wet conditions during D–O stadials. Notably, highstands between 43 and 25 ka apparently occurred at times of generally low levels of pluvial lakes farther north as interpreted from core-based proxies. Mojave lakes may have been supported by tropical moisture sources during oxygen-isotope stage 3, perhaps controlled by southerly deflection of Pacific storm tracks due to weakening of the sea-surface temperature gradient in response to North Atlantic climate perturbations.

  4. Sea Level Rise in Santa Clara County

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Milesi, Cristina

    2005-01-01

    Presentation by Cristina Milesi, First Author, NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA at the "Meeting the Challenge of Sea Level Rise in Santa Clara County" on June 19, 2005 Santa Clara County, bordering with the southern portion of the San Francisco Bay, is highly vulnerable to flooding and to sea level rise (SLR). In this presentation, the latest sea level rise projections for the San Francisco Bay will be discussed in the context of extreme water height frequency and extent of flooding vulnerability. I will also present preliminary estimations of levee requirements and possible mitigation through tidal restoration of existing salt ponds. The examples will draw mainly from the work done by the NASA Climate Adaptation Science Investigators at NASA Ames.

  5. Coupled Atmosphere-Surface Modeling of Lake Levels of the North American Great Lakes under Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lofgren, B. M.; Xiao, C.

    2016-12-01

    The influence of projected climate change on the water levels of the Great Lakes is subject to considerable uncertainty, and methods that have long been used to determine this sensitivity have been discredited. A strong candidate, albeit expensive, to replace problematic methods is to use outputs that result from dynamical downscaling of future climate simulations, focused on the hydroclimate of the Great Lakes basin. We have produced initial estimates of Great Lakes water levels in the mid- and late 21st century using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, including its lake module, driven by lateral boundary conditions from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab Climate Model version 3.0 (GFDL CM3), under RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Future lake levels are influenced by the balance between projected general increases in precipitation and increases in evapotranspiration from both land and lake in the basin, driven primarily by the surface radiative energy budget and secondarily by air temperature. The net result was drops in lake level of up to 15 cm, in contrast to the results from much-used older methods, which often projected drops exceeding 1 m. Future plans include increased detail in the simulation of water flow overland and in river channels using WRF-Hydro, and full coupling of regional atmospheric systems with 3-dimensional dynamical lake implementation of the Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM).

  6. Consequences of sea level variability and sea level rise for Cuban territory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hernández, M.; Martínez, C. A.; Marzo, O.

    2015-03-01

    The objective of the present paper was to determine a first approximation of coastal zone flooding by 2100, taking into account the more persistent processes of sea level variability and non-accelerated linear sea level rise estimation to assess the main impacts. The annual linear rate of mean sea level rise in the Cuban archipelago, obtained from the longest tide gauge records, has fluctuated between 0.005 cm/year at Casilda and 0.214 cm/year at Siboney. The main sea level rise effects for the Cuban coastal zone due to climate change and global warming are shown. Monthly and annual mean sea level anomalies, some of which are similar to or higher than the mean sea level rise estimated for halfway through the present century, reinforce the inland seawater penetration due to the semi-daily high tide. The combination of these different events will result in the loss of goods and services, and require expensive investments for adaption.

  7. Sea-Level Projections from the SeaRISE Initiative

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nowicki, Sophie; Bindschadler, Robert

    2011-01-01

    SeaRISE (Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution) is a community organized modeling effort, whose goal is to inform the fifth IPCC of the potential sea-level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets in the 21st and 22nd century. SeaRISE seeks to determine the most likely ice sheet response to imposed climatic forcing by initializing an ensemble of models with common datasets and applying the same forcing to each model. Sensitivity experiments were designed to quantify the sea-level rise associated with a change in: 1) surface mass balance, 2) basal lubrication, and 3) ocean induced basal melt. The range of responses, resulting from the multi-model approach, is interpreted as a proxy of uncertainty in our sea-level projections. http://websrv.cs .umt.edu/isis/index.php/SeaRISE_Assessment.

  8. Sea-level rise risks to coastal cities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nicholls, Robert J.

    2017-04-01

    Understanding the consequence of sea-level rise for coastal cities has long lead times and huge political implications. Civilisation has emerged and developed during a period of several thousand years during which in geological terms sea level has been unusually stable. We have now moved out of this period and the challenge will be to develop a long-term proactive assessment approach to manage this challenge. In 2005 there were 136 coastal cities with a population exceeding one million people and a collective population of 400 million people. All these coastal cities are threatened by flooding from the sea to varying degrees and these risks are increasing due to growing exposure (people and assets), rising sea levels due to climate change, and in some cities, significant coastal subsidence due to human agency (drainage and groundwater withdrawals from susceptible soils). In these cities we wish to avoid major flood events, with associated damage and potentially deaths and ultimately decline of the cities. Flood risks grow with sea-level rise as it raises extreme sea levels. As sea levels continue to rise, protection will have to be progressively upgraded. Even with this, the magnitude of losses when flood events do occur would increase as coastal cities expand, and water depths and hence unit damage increase with sea-level rise/subsidence. This makes it critical to also prepare for larger coastal flood disasters than we experience today and raises questions on the limits to adaptation. There is not an extensive literature or significant empirical information on the limits to adaptation in coastal cities. These limits are not predictable in a formal sense - while the rise in mean sea level raises the likelihood of a catastrophic flood, extreme events are what cause damage and trigger a response, be it abandonment, a defence upgrade or something else. There are several types of potential limits that could be categorised into three broad types: • Physical

  9. Glaciers and Sea Level Rise

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2017-12-08

    Small valley glacier exiting the Devon Island Ice Cap in Canada. To learn about the contributions of glaciers to sea level rise, visit: www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/glacier-sea-rise.html Credit: Alex Gardner, Clark University NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

  10. Recent paleorecords document rising mercury contamination in Lake Tanganyika

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Conaway, C.H.; Swarzenski, P.W.; Cohen, A.S.

    2012-01-01

    Recent Lake Tanganyika Hg deposition records were derived using 14C and excess 210Pb geochronometers in sediment cores collected from two contrasting depositional environments: the Kalya Platform, located mid-lake and more removed from watershed impacts, and the Nyasanga/Kahama River delta region, located close to the lake's shoreline north of Kigoma. At the Kalya Platform area, pre-industrial Hg concentrations are 23??0.2ng/g, increasing to 74ng/g in modern surface sediment, and the Hg accumulation rate has increased from 1.0 to 7.2??g/m 2/a from pre-industrial to present, which overall represents a 6-fold increase in Hg concentration and accumulation. At the Nyasanga/Kahama delta region, pre-industrial Hg concentrations are 20??3ng/g, increasing to 46ng/g in surface sediment. Mercury accumulation rate has increased from 30 to 70??g/m 2/a at this site, representing a 2-3-fold increase in Hg concentration and accumulation. There is a lack of correlation between charcoal abundance and Hg accumulation rate in the sediment cores, demonstrating that local biomass burning has little relationship with the observed Hg concentration or Hg accumulation rates. Examined using a sediment focusing-corrected mass accumulation rate approach, the cores have similar anthropogenic atmospheric Hg deposition profiles, suggesting that after accounting for background sediment concentrations the source of accumulating Hg is predominantly atmospheric in origin. In summary, the data document an increase of Hg flux to the Lake Tanganyika ecosystem that is consistent with increasing watershed sediment delivery with background-level Hg contamination, and regional as well as global increases in atmospheric Hg deposition. ?? 2011.

  11. Sea-level rise: towards understanding local vulnerability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rahmstorf, Stefan

    2012-06-01

    Projections of global sea-level rise into the future have become more pessimistic over the past five years or so. A global rise by more than one metre by the year 2100 is now widely accepted as a serious possibility if greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated. That is witnessed by the scientific assessments that were made since the last IPCC report was published in 2007. The Delta Commission of the Dutch government projected up to 1.10 m as a 'high-end' scenario (Vellinga et al 2009). The Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) projected up to 1.40 m (Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research 2009), and the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) gives a range of 0.90-1.60 m in its 2011 report (Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme 2011). And recently the US Army Corps of Engineers recommends using a 'low', an 'intermediate' and a 'high' scenario for global sea-level rise when planning civil works programmes, with the high one corresponding to a 1.50 m rise by 2100 (US Army Corps of Engineers 2011). This more pessimistic view is based on a number of observations, most importantly perhaps the fact that sea level has been rising at least 50% faster in the past decades than projected by the IPCC (Rahmstorf et al 2007, IPCC 2007). Also, the rate of rise (averaged over two decades) has accelerated threefold, from around 1 mm yr-1 at the start of the 20th century to around 3 mm yr-1 over the past 20 years (Church and White 2006), and this rate increase closely correlates with global warming (Rahmstorf et al 2011). The IPCC projections, which assume almost no further acceleration in the 20th century, thus look less plausible. And finally the observed net mass loss of the two big continental ice sheets (Van den Broeke et al 2011) calls into question the assumption that ice accumulation in Antarctica would largely balance ice loss from Greenland in the course of further global warming (IPCC 2007). With such a serious sea-level rise on the horizon

  12. The effects of water levels on Two Lake Ontario Wetlands

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Busch, Wolf-Dieter N.; Osborn, Ronald G.; Auble, Gregor T.

    1990-01-01

    Lake Ontario's water levels have been regulated since 1959, after the completion of the St. Lawrence River navigation and hydropower development project. The plan used to guide the regulation (1958-D) has been in effect since 1963 (Bryce, 1982). The purpose of the regulation was to prevent extreme high-water levels which increased erosion on the south shore of Lake Ontario, while protecting the interests of commercial navigation and hydropower production in the St. Lawrence River (T. Brown, personal communication, member of the Board of Control). Major user groups have sought further reductions in the range of lake level fluctuations. However, the biological resources, especially the lake influenced wetlands, benefit from the waterlevel fluctuations. Great Lakes wetlands are the most important habitat for wildlife of the region (Tilton and Schwegler, 1978). We provide information here on the responses of wetland plant communities in two wetlands to changes in lake levels over time.

  13. Rising Sea Levels: Truth or Scare?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Peacock, Alan

    2007-01-01

    When "ITV News" ran an item that shocked the author, about rising sea levels that will have caused the entire evacuation of the islands by the end of this year, he began to wonder whether the Pacific Ocean is really rising as fast as this. The media reporting of such things can be a double-edged sword. On the one hand, it brought to the author's…

  14. Sensitivity analysis of sea level rise contribution depending on external forcing: A case study of Victoria Land, East Antarctica.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Park, I. W.; Lee, S. H.; Lee, W. S.; Lee, C. K.; Lee, K. K.

    2017-12-01

    As global mean temperature increases, it affects increase in polar glacier melt and thermal expansion of sea, which contributed to global sea level rise. Unlike large sea level rise contributors in Western Antarctica (e. g. Pine island glacier, Thwaites glacier), glaciers in East Antarctica shows relatively stable and slow ice velocity. However, recent calving events related to increase of supraglacier lake in Nansen ice shelf arouse the questions in regards to future evolution of ice dynamics at Victoria Land, East Antarctica. Here, using Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM), a series of numerical simulations were carried out to investigate ice dynamics evolution (grounding line migration, ice velocity) and sea level rise contribution in response to external forcing conditions (surface mass balance, floating ice melting rate, and ice front retreat). In this study, we used control method to set ice dynamic properties (ice rigidity and friction coefficient) with shallow shelf approximation model and check each external forcing conditions contributing to sea level change. Before 50-year transient simulations were conducted based on changing surface mass balance, floating ice melting rate, and ice front retreat of Drygalski ice tongue and Nansen ice shelf, relaxation was performed for 10 years to reduce non-physical undulation and it was used as initial condition. The simulation results showed that sea level rise contribution were expected to be much less compared to other fast glaciers. Floating ice melting rate was most sensitive parameter to sea level rise, while ice front retreat of Drygalski tongue was negligible. The regional model will be further updated utilizing ice radar topography and measured floating ice melting rate.

  15. Overestimation of marsh vulnerability to sea level rise

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kirwan, Matthew L.; Temmerman, Stijn; Skeehan, Emily E.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.; Fagherazzi, Sergio

    2016-01-01

    Coastal marshes are considered to be among the most valuable and vulnerable ecosystems on Earth, where the imminent loss of ecosystem services is a feared consequence of sea level rise. However, we show with a meta-analysis that global measurements of marsh elevation change indicate that marshes are generally building at rates similar to or exceeding historical sea level rise, and that process-based models predict survival under a wide range of future sea level scenarios. We argue that marsh vulnerability tends to be overstated because assessment methods often fail to consider biophysical feedback processes known to accelerate soil building with sea level rise, and the potential for marshes to migrate inland.

  16. Tides and lake-level variations in the great Patagonian lakes: Observations, modelling and geophysical implications.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marderwald, Eric; Richter, Andreas; Horwath, Martin; Hormaechea, Jose Luis; Groh, Andreas

    2016-04-01

    In Patagonia, the glacial-isostatic adjustment (GIA) to past ice-mass changes (Ivins & James 2004; Klemann et al. 2007) is of particular interest in the context of the determination of the complex regional rheology related to plate subduction in a triple-junction constellation. To further complicate the situation, GIA is overlaid with load deformation not only due to present ice mass changes but also due to water-level changes in the lakes surrounding the icefields and the ocean surrounding Patagonia. These elastic deformations affect the determination of glacial-isostatic uplift rates from GPS observations (Dietrich et al. 2010; Lange et al. 2014). Observations of lake tides and their comparison with the theoretical tidal signal have been used previously to validate predictions of ocean tidal loading and have revealed regional deviations from conventional global elastic earth models (Richter et al. 2009). In this work we investigate the tides and lake-level variations in Lago Argentino, Lago Viedma, Lago San Martín/O'Higgins and Lago Buenos Aires/General Carrera. This allows us to test, among other things, the validity of tidal loading models. We present pressure tide-gauge records from two sites in Lago Argentino extending over 2.5 years (Richter et al. 2015). These observations are complemented by lake-level records provided by the Argentine National Hydrometeorological Network. Based on these lake-level time series the principal processes affecting the lake level are identified and quantified. Lake-level changes reflecting variations in lake volume are dominated by a seasonal cycle exceeding 1 m in amplitude. Lake-volume changes occur in addition with a daily period in response to melt water influx from surrounding glaciers. In Lago Argentino sporadic lake-volume jumps are caused by bursting of the ice dam of Perito Moreno glacier. Water movements in these lakes are dominated by surface seiches reaching 20 cm in amplitude. A harmonic tidal analysis of the lake-level

  17. Glaciers and Sea Level Rise

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2017-12-08

    Summit camp on top of the Austfonna Ice Cap in Svalbard (Norwegian Arctic). To learn about the contributions of glaciers to sea level rise, visit: www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/glacier-sea-rise.html Credit: Thorben Dunse, University of Oslo NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

  18. Coastal Impact Underestimated From Rapid Sea Level Rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anderson, John; Milliken, Kristy; Wallace, Davin; Rodriguez, Antonio; Simms, Alexander

    2010-06-01

    A primary effect of global warming is accelerated sea level rise, which will eventually drown low-lying coastal areas, including some of the world's most populated cities. Predictions from the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggest that sea level may rise by as much as 0.6 meter by 2100 [Solomon et al., 2007]. However, uncertainty remains about how projected melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets will contribute to sea level rise. Further, considerable variability is introduced to these calculations due to coastal subsidence, especially along the northern Gulf of Mexico (see http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends.shtml).

  19. Assessing Lake Level Variability and Water Availability in Lake Tana, Ethiopia using a Groundwater Flow Model and GRACE Satellite Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hasan, E.; Dokou, Z.; Kirstetter, P. E.; Tarhule, A.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Bagtzoglou, A. C.; Hong, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Lake Tana is the source of the Blue Nile and Ethiopia's largest natural buffer against seasonal variations of rainfall. Assessing the interactions between the lake level fluctuation, hydroclimatic variabilities and anthropogenic factors is essential to detect drought conditions and identify the role of human management in controlling the Lake water balance. Via an extended record of Total Water Storage (TWS) anomalies for the period 1960-2016, a water budget model for the lake water inflow/outflow was developed. Estimates of Lake Level Altimetry (LLA) based on in-situ and satellite altimetry were composited from 1960-2016 and compared to the extended TWS anomalies, the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI), the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the historical lake water levels and releases. In addition, the simulated lake levels and water budget from a coupled groundwater and lake model of the Lake Tana basin were compared to the above results. Combining the different approaches, the water budget of the lake can be monitored, the drought conditions can be identified and the role of human management in the lake can be determined. For instance, three major drought periods are identified, 1970 to 1977, 1979 to 1987 and 1990 to 1998, each succeeded with an interposed flooding related recovery year, i.e. 1978, 1988 and 1999. The drought/flooding events were attributed mainly to the ENSO interactions that resulted in lake level fluctuations. The period from 2002-2006 was associated with a remarkable decline of the lake level that was attributed partly in drought conditions and the full flow regulation of the Chara Chara weir at the lake outlet, initiated in 2001.

  20. Rapid sea level rise and ice sheet response to 8,200-year climate event

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cronin, T. M.; Vogt, P.R.; Willard, D.A.; Thunell, R.; Halka, J.; Berke, M.; Pohlman, J.

    2007-01-01

    The largest abrupt climatic reversal of the Holocene interglacial, the cooling event 8.6–8.2 thousand years ago (ka), was probably caused by catastrophic release of glacial Lake Agassiz-Ojibway, which slowed Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and cooled global climate. Geophysical surveys and sediment cores from Chesapeake Bay reveal the pattern of sea level rise during this event. Sea level rose ∼14 m between 9.5 to 7.5 ka, a pattern consistent with coral records and the ICE-5G glacio-isostatic adjustment model. There were two distinct periods at ∼8.9–8.8 and ∼8.2–7.6 ka when Chesapeake marshes were drown as sea level rose rapidly at least ∼12 mm yr−1. The latter event occurred after the 8.6–8.2 ka cooling event, coincided with extreme warming and vigorous AMOC centered on 7.9 ka, and may have been due to Antarctic Ice Sheet decay.

  1. Visualizing Sea Level Rise with Augmented Reality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kintisch, E. S.

    2013-12-01

    Looking Glass is an application on the iPhone that visualizes in 3-D future scenarios of sea level rise, overlaid on live camera imagery in situ. Using a technology known as augmented reality, the app allows a layperson user to explore various scenarios of sea level rise using a visual interface. Then the user can see, in an immersive, dynamic way, how those scenarios would affect a real place. The first part of the experience activates users' cognitive, quantitative thinking process, teaching them how global sea level rise, tides and storm surge contribute to flooding; the second allows an emotional response to a striking visual depiction of possible future catastrophe. This project represents a partnership between a science journalist, MIT, and the Rhode Island School of Design, and the talk will touch on lessons this projects provides on structuring and executing such multidisciplinary efforts on future design projects.

  2. Sea Level Rise Data Discovery

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quach, N.; Huang, T.; Boening, C.; Gill, K. M.

    2016-12-01

    Research related to sea level rise crosses multiple disciplines from sea ice to land hydrology. The NASA Sea Level Change Portal (SLCP) is a one-stop source for current sea level change information and data, including interactive tools for accessing and viewing regional data, a virtual dashboard of sea level indicators, and ongoing updates through a suite of editorial products that include content articles, graphics, videos, and animations. The architecture behind the SLCP makes it possible to integrate web content and data relevant to sea level change that are archived across various data centers as well as new data generated by sea level change principal investigators. The Extensible Data Gateway Environment (EDGE) is incorporated into the SLCP architecture to provide a unified platform for web content and science data discovery. EDGE is a data integration platform designed to facilitate high-performance geospatial data discovery and access with the ability to support multi-metadata standard specifications. EDGE has the capability to retrieve data from one or more sources and package the resulting sets into a single response to the requestor. With this unified endpoint, the Data Analysis Tool that is available on the SLCP can retrieve dataset and granule level metadata as well as perform geospatial search on the data. This talk focuses on the architecture that makes it possible to seamlessly integrate and enable discovery of disparate data relevant to sea level rise.

  3. Climatology and potential effects of an emergency outlet, Devils Lake Basin, North Dakota

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wiche, Gregg J.; Vecchia, Aldo V.; Osborne, Leon; Fay, James T.

    2000-01-01

    The Devils Lake Basin is a 3,810-square-mile subbasin in the Red River of the North Basin.  At an elevation of about 1,447 feet above sea level, Devils Lake begins to spill into Stump Lake; and at an elevation of about 1,459 feet above sea level, the combined lakes begin to spill through Tolna Coulee into the Sheyenne River. Since the end of glaciation about 10,000 years ago, Devils Lake has fluctuated between spilling and being dry.  Research by the North Dakota Geological Survey indicates Devils Lake has overflowed into the Sheyenne River at least twice during the past 4,000 years and has spilled into the Stump Lakes several times (Bluemle, 1991; Murphy and others, 1997).  John Bluemle, North Dakota State Geologist, concluded the natural condition for Devils Lake is either rising or falling, and the lake should not be expected to remain at any elevation for a long period of time. Recent conditions indicate the lake is in a rising phase.  The lake rose 24.7 feet from February 1993 to August 1999, and flood damages in the Devils Lake Basin have exceeded $300 million.  These damages, and the potential for additional damages, have led to an effort to develop an outlet to help control lake levels.  Therefore, current and accurate climatologic and hydrologic data are needed to assess the viability of the various options to reduce flood damages at Devils Lake.

  4. Sunspots, El Niño, and the levels of Lake Victoria, East Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stager, J. Curt; Ruzmaikin, Alexander; Conway, Declan; Verburg, Piet; Mason, Peter J.

    2007-08-01

    An association of high sunspot numbers with rises in the level of Lake Victoria, East Africa, has been the focus of many investigations and vigorous debate during the last century. In this paper, we show that peaks in the ~11-year sunspot cycle were accompanied by Victoria level maxima throughout the 20th century, due to the occurrence of positive rainfall anomalies ~1 year before solar maxima. Similar patterns also occurred in at least five other East African lakes, which indicates that these sunspot-rainfall relationships were broadly regional in scale. Although irradiance fluctuations associated with the sunspot cycle are weak, their effects on tropical rainfall could be amplified through interactions with sea surface temperatures and atmospheric circulation systems, including ENSO. If this Sun-rainfall relationship persists in the future, then sunspot cycles can be used for long-term prediction of precipitation anomalies and associated outbreaks of insect-borne disease in much of East Africa. In that case, unusually wet rainy seasons and Rift Valley Fever epidemics should occur a year or so before the next solar maximum, which is expected to occur in 2011-2012 AD.

  5. Hydrologic conditions and lake-level fluctuations at Long Lost Lake, 1939-2004, White Earth Indian Reservation, Clearwater County, Minnesota

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Christensen, Victoria G.; Bergman, Andrea L.

    2005-01-01

    Aerial photography and a geographic information system were used to construct a historical lake record from 1939 to 2001. Lake-level increases match similar increases in precipitation, indicating a strong link between the two. Results show that lake-level increases in Long Lost Lake appear to primarily be due to natural rather than anthropogenic effects.

  6. New insights on water level variability for Lake Turkana for the past 15 ka and at 150 ka from relict beaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Forman, S. L.; Wright, D.

    2015-12-01

    Relict beaches adjacent to Lake Turkana provide a record of water level variability for the Late Quaternary. This study focused on deciphering the geomorphology, sedimentology, stratigraphy and 14C chronology of strand plain sequences in the Kalokol and Lothagam areas. Nine >30 m oscillations in water level were documented between ca. 15 and 4 ka. The earliest oscillation between ca. 14.5 and 13 ka is not well constrained with water level to at least 70 m above the present surface and subsequently fell to at least 50 m. Lake level increased to ~ 90 m between ca. 11.2 and 10.4 ka, post Younger Dryas cooling. Water level fell by >30 m by 10.2 ka, with another potential rise at ca. 8.5 ka to >70 m above current level. Lake level regressed by > 40 m at 8.2 ka coincident with cooling in the equatorial Eastern Atlantic Ocean. Two major >70 m lake level oscillations centered at 6.6 and 5.2 ka may reflect enhanced convection with warmer sea surface temperatures in the Western Indian Ocean. The end of the African Humid Period occurred from ca. 8.0 to 4.5 ka and was characterized by variable lake level (± > 40 m), rather than one monotonic fall in water level. This lake level variability reflects a complex response to variations in the extent and intensity of the East and West African Monsoons near geographic and topographic limits within the catchment of Lake Turkana. Also, for this closed lake basin excess and deficits in water input are amplified with a cascading lake effect in the East Rift Valley and through the Chew Bahir Basin. The final regression from a high stand of > 90 m began at. 5.2 ka and water level was below 20 m by 4.5 ka; and for the remainder of the Holocene. This sustained low stand is associated with weakening of the West African Monsoon, a shift of the mean position of Congo Air Boundary west of the Lake Turkana catchment and with meter-scale variability in lake level linked to Walker circulation across the Indian Ocean. A surprising observation is

  7. Coastal sea level rise with warming above 2 °C

    PubMed Central

    Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Jackson, Luke P.; Riva, Riccardo E. M.; Grinsted, Aslak; Moore, John C.

    2016-01-01

    Two degrees of global warming above the preindustrial level is widely suggested as an appropriate threshold beyond which climate change risks become unacceptably high. This “2 °C” threshold is likely to be reached between 2040 and 2050 for both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 and 4.5. Resulting sea level rises will not be globally uniform, due to ocean dynamical processes and changes in gravity associated with water mass redistribution. Here we provide probabilistic sea level rise projections for the global coastline with warming above the 2 °C goal. By 2040, with a 2 °C warming under the RCP8.5 scenario, more than 90% of coastal areas will experience sea level rise exceeding the global estimate of 0.2 m, with up to 0.4 m expected along the Atlantic coast of North America and Norway. With a 5 °C rise by 2100, sea level will rise rapidly, reaching 0.9 m (median), and 80% of the coastline will exceed the global sea level rise at the 95th percentile upper limit of 1.8 m. Under RCP8.5, by 2100, New York may expect rises of 1.09 m, Guangzhou may expect rises of 0.91 m, and Lagos may expect rises of 0.90 m, with the 95th percentile upper limit of 2.24 m, 1.93 m, and 1.92 m, respectively. The coastal communities of rapidly expanding cities in the developing world, and vulnerable tropical coastal ecosystems, will have a very limited time after midcentury to adapt to sea level rises unprecedented since the dawn of the Bronze Age. PMID:27821743

  8. Coastal sea level rise with warming above 2 °C.

    PubMed

    Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Jackson, Luke P; Riva, Riccardo E M; Grinsted, Aslak; Moore, John C

    2016-11-22

    Two degrees of global warming above the preindustrial level is widely suggested as an appropriate threshold beyond which climate change risks become unacceptably high. This "2 °C" threshold is likely to be reached between 2040 and 2050 for both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 and 4.5. Resulting sea level rises will not be globally uniform, due to ocean dynamical processes and changes in gravity associated with water mass redistribution. Here we provide probabilistic sea level rise projections for the global coastline with warming above the 2 °C goal. By 2040, with a 2 °C warming under the RCP8.5 scenario, more than 90% of coastal areas will experience sea level rise exceeding the global estimate of 0.2 m, with up to 0.4 m expected along the Atlantic coast of North America and Norway. With a 5 °C rise by 2100, sea level will rise rapidly, reaching 0.9 m (median), and 80% of the coastline will exceed the global sea level rise at the 95th percentile upper limit of 1.8 m. Under RCP8.5, by 2100, New York may expect rises of 1.09 m, Guangzhou may expect rises of 0.91 m, and Lagos may expect rises of 0.90 m, with the 95th percentile upper limit of 2.24 m, 1.93 m, and 1.92 m, respectively. The coastal communities of rapidly expanding cities in the developing world, and vulnerable tropical coastal ecosystems, will have a very limited time after midcentury to adapt to sea level rises unprecedented since the dawn of the Bronze Age.

  9. Projecting Future Water Levels of the Laurentian Great Lakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bennington, V.; Notaro, M.; Holman, K.

    2013-12-01

    The Laurentian Great Lakes are the largest freshwater system on Earth, containing 84% of North America's freshwater. The lakes are a valuable economic and recreational resource, valued at over 62 billion in annual wages and supporting a 7 billion fishery. Shipping, recreation, and coastal property values are significantly impacted by water level variability, with large economic consequences. Great Lakes water levels fluctuate both seasonally and long-term, responding to natural and anthropogenic climate changes. Due to the integrated nature of water levels, a prolonged small change in any one of the net basin supply components: over-lake precipitation, watershed runoff, or evaporation from the lake surface, may result in important trends in water levels. We utilize the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics's Regional Climate Model Version 4.5.6 to dynamically downscale three global global climate models that represent a spread of potential future climate change for the region to determine whether the climate models suggest a robust response of the Laurentian Great Lakes to anthropogenic climate change. The Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate Version 5 (MIROC5), the National Centre for Meteorological Research Earth system model (CNRM-CM5), and the Community Climate System Model Version 4 (CCSM4) project different regional temperature increases and precipitation change over the next century and are used as lateral boundary conditions. We simulate the historical (1980-2000) and late-century periods (2080-2100). Upon model evaluation we will present dynamically downscaled projections of net basin supply changes for each of the Laurentian Great Lakes.

  10. Glaciers and Sea Level Rise

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2017-12-08

    Aerial view of the Sverdrup Glacier, a river of ice that flows from the interior of the Devon Island Ice Cap (Canada) into the ocean. To learn about the contributions of glaciers to sea level rise, visit: www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/glacier-sea-rise.html Credit: Alex Gardner, Clark University NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

  11. Glaciers and Sea Level Rise

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2017-12-08

    Melt water ponded at surface in the accumulation zone of Columbia Glacier, Alaska, in July 2008. To learn about the contributions of glaciers to sea level rise, visit: www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/glacier-sea-rise.html Credit: W. Tad Pfeffer, University of Colorado at Boulder NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

  12. Glaciers and Sea Level Rise

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2017-12-08

    Peripheral glaciers and ice caps (isolated from the main ice sheet, which is seen in the upper right section of the image) in eastern Greenland. To learn about the contributions of glaciers to sea level rise, visit: www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/glacier-sea-rise.html Credit: Frank Paul, University of Zurich NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

  13. Glaciers and Sea Level Rise

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2017-12-08

    This ice cave in Belcher Glacier (Devon Island, Canada) was formed by melt water flowing within the glacier ice. To learn about the contributions of glaciers to sea level rise, visit: www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/glacier-sea-rise.html Credit: Angus Duncan, University of Saskatchewan NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

  14. Evaluating the Impact of Gilgel Gibe Dam on the Lake Turkana Water Levels: An Illustration from an Endorheic Lake in Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Velpuri, N.; Senay, G. B.

    2010-12-01

    Lake Turkana is one of the lakes in the Great Rift Valley, Africa. This lake has no outlet hence it is considered as closed or endorheic lake. To meet the demand of electricity in the east African region, Ethiopia is currently building Gilgel Gibe-III dam on the Omo River, which supplies up to 80% of the inflows to the Lake Turkana. On completion, this dam would be the tallest dam in Africa with a height of 241 m. As Lake Turkana is highly dependent on the inflows from the Omo River, the construction of this dam could potentially pose a threat to the downstream river valley and to Lake Turkana. This hydroelectric project is arguably one of the most controversial projects in the region. The impact of the dam on the lake is evaluated using Remote Sensing datasets and hydrologic modeling. First, lake water levels (1998-2007) were estimated using the Simplified Lake Water Balance (SLAB) approach which takes in satellite based rainfall estimates, modeled runoff and evapotranspiration data over the Turkana basin. Modeled lake levels were validated against TOPEX/POSIEDON/Jason-1 satellite altimeter data. Validation results showed that the model could capture observed trends and seasonal variations in lake levels. The fact that the lake is endorheic makes it easy to model the lake levels. Using satellite based estimates for the years 1998-2009, future scenarios for rainfall and evapotranspiration were generated using the Monte Carlo simulation approach and the impact of Gilgel Gibe-III dam on the Lake Turkana water levels is evaluated using SLAB approach. Preliminary results indicate that the impact of the dam on the lake would vary with the initial water level in the lake at the time of dam commissioning. It was found that during the initial period of dam/reservoir filling the lake level would drop up to 2-3 m (95% confidence interval). However, on average the lake would stabilize within 10 years from the date of commissioning. The variability within the lake levels due

  15. Monitoring lake level changes by altimetry in the arid region of Central Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Y.; Liao, J. J.; Shen, G. Z.; Zhang, X. L.

    2017-07-01

    The study of lake level changes in arid region of Central Asia not only has important significance for the management and sustainable development of inland water resources, but also provides the basis for further study on the response of lakes to climate change and human activities. Therefore, in this paper, eleven typical lakes in Central Asia were observed. The lake edges were obtained through image interpretation using the quasi-synchronous MODIS image, and then water level information with long period (2002-2015) was acquired using ENVISAT/RA-2 and Cryosat-2 satellite borne radar altimeter data. The results show that these 11 lakes all have obvious seasonal changes of water level in a year with a high peak at different month. During 2002 - 2015, their water levels present decreased trend generally except Sarygamysh Lake, Alakol Lake and North Aral Sea. The alpine lakes are most stables, while open lakes’ levels change the most violently and closed lakes change diversely among different lakes.

  16. Late Holocene Lake Level Fluctuations at Laguna Arapa, Peru and Connections to Human Demography

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hillman, A. L.; Abbott, M. B.; Werne, J. P.; Arkush, E.; Thompson, L. G.; Ferland, T.; Holmes, E.; Puhnaty, C.; Woods, A.

    2016-12-01

    The relationship between variations in hydroclimate and human demography on the Peruvian Altiplano has significant implications for understanding how people in the past have adapted to changes in freshwater resources. To investigate these human-environmental interactions, this project presents a 2,000 year sediment record from Laguna Arapa, a large lake that is <20 km NW of Lake Titicaca. Using sedimentology and stratigraphy as well as a suite of organic geochemical proxies including fecal 5β-stanols and leaf waxes (long chain n-alkanoic acids), we aim to tie together proxies of human population with indicators of regional hydroclimate. Preliminary results of sedimentology and stratigraphy show notable transitions from sand to silt to clay, suggesting rising lake level sequences at 500 and 700 AD. The last 1,300 years of sediment are characterized by alternating layers of organic rich material with abundant charcoal and black inorganic clay, suggesting intermittent periods of aridity and/or anthropogenic fire-setting. These layers are particularly frequent during the Medieval Climate Anomaly, which was characterized by dry and warm conditions. These results agree well with other records of hydroclimate from regional lakes as well as accumulation rate and temperature from the Quelccaya ice cap. Organic geochemical work is currently in progress and shows promise for linking together proxies of human demography with hydroclimate to understand the relationship between human settlement and climate change.

  17. Analysis of Sea Level Rise in Singapore Strait

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tkalich, Pavel; Luu, Quang-Hung

    2013-04-01

    Sea level in Singapore Strait is governed by various scale phenomena, from global to local. Global signals are dominated by the climate change and multi-decadal variability and associated sea level rise; at regional scale seasonal sea level variability is caused by ENSO-modulated monsoons; locally, astronomic tides are the strongest force. Tide gauge records in Singapore Strait are analyzed to derive local sea level trend, and attempts are made to attribute observed sea level variability to phenomena at various scales, from global to local. It is found that at annual scale, sea level anomalies in Singapore Strait are quasi-periodic, of the order of ±15 cm, the highest during northeast monsoon and the lowest during southwest monsoon. Interannual regional sea level falls are associated with El Niño events, while the rises are related to La Niña episodes; both variations are in the range of ±9 cm. At multi-decadal scale, sea level in Singapore Strait has been rising at the rate 1.2-1.9 mm/year for the period 1975-2009, 2.0±0.3 mm/year for 1984-2009, and 1.3-4.7 mm/year for 1993-2009. When compared with the respective global trends of 2.0±0.3, 2.4, and 2.8±0.8 mm/year, Singapore Strait sea level rise trend was weaker at the earlier period and stronger at the recent decade.

  18. Disentangling Holocene lake level changes with a transect of lake sediment cores - a case study from Lake Fürstenseer See, northeastern Germany

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dietze, Elisabeth; Slowinski, Michal; Kienel, Ulrike; Zawiska, Izabela; Brauer, Achim

    2014-05-01

    Deciphering the main processes contributing to lake and landscape evolution in the northern central European lowlands on different temporal scales is one of the main targets of the Virtual Institute of Integrated Climate and Landscape Evolution Analysis (ICLEA) of the Helmholtz Association. In the context of future climatic changes especially the hydrological system is a vulnerable landscape component that showed considerably large changes in the recent past. The analysis of lake sediment archives can help to infer long-term dynamics of regional lake and groundwater levels, although available proxy information needs to be studied carefully, as water level changes are only one trigger. Lake Fürstenseer See (53°19'N, 13°12'E, lake level in 2009: 63.3 m a.s.l.) formed after the retreat of the Weichselian ice sheet in a subglacial channel in the direct forefront of the Pommerian ice margin. The ~2 km2 large lake (zmax = 24.5 m) has a (sub-) surficial catchment area of ~(20) 40 km2 including other smaller lakes and peatlands. In the past, the lake system was artificially dammed for the operation of water mills. Located within the well-drained sandur substrate, the lake levels vary with groundwater levels in response to hydrological and catchment-related groundwater recharge. Detrital matter input from fluvial activity can be excluded. Lake sediment cores at four sites along a transect down to 23 m water depth show distinct sediment facies patterns. Stratigraphic descriptions and non-destructive continuous micro-XRF scanning allowed the differentiation of the main sediment facies, which were microscopically described using thin sections. Quantification of total organic and inorganic matter (TOC, TIC, C/N-composition) and discontinuous macrorest, diatom and Cladocera analysis helped to approach the sedimentation history. Stable isotopes of (delta-180, delta-13C) were used for characterization of carbonates. A high amount of non-reworked terrestrial plant remains from

  19. Using multi-source satellite data for lake level modelling in ungauged basins: A case study for Lake Turkana, East Africa

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Velpuri, N.M.; Senay, G.B.; Asante, K.O.

    2011-01-01

    Managing limited surface water resources is a great challenge in areas where ground-based data are either limited or unavailable. Direct or indirect measurements of surface water resources through remote sensing offer several advantages of monitoring in ungauged basins. A physical based hydrologic technique to monitor lake water levels in ungauged basins using multi-source satellite data such as satellite-based rainfall estimates, modelled runoff, evapotranspiration, a digital elevation model, and other data is presented. This approach is applied to model Lake Turkana water levels from 1998 to 2009. Modelling results showed that the model can reasonably capture all the patterns and seasonal variations of the lake water level fluctuations. A composite lake level product of TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, and ENVISAT satellite altimetry data is used for model calibration (1998-2000) and model validation (2001-2009). Validation results showed that model-based lake levels are in good agreement with observed satellite altimetry data. Compared to satellite altimetry data, the Pearson's correlation coefficient was found to be 0.81 during the validation period. The model efficiency estimated using NSCE is found to be 0.93, 0.55 and 0.66 for calibration, validation and combined periods, respectively. Further, the model-based estimates showed a root mean square error of 0.62 m and mean absolute error of 0.46 m with a positive mean bias error of 0.36 m for the validation period (2001-2009). These error estimates were found to be less than 15 % of the natural variability of the lake, thus giving high confidence on the modelled lake level estimates. The approach presented in this paper can be used to (a) simulate patterns of lake water level variations in data scarce regions, (b) operationally monitor lake water levels in ungauged basins, (c) derive historical lake level information using satellite rainfall and evapotranspiration data, and (d) augment the information provided by the

  20. Lake-level variation in the Lahontan basin for the past 50,000 years

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Benson, L.V.; Thompson, R.S.

    1987-01-01

    Selected radiocarbon data on surficial materials from the Lahontan basin, Nevada and California, provide a chronology of lake-level variation for the past 50,000 yr. A moderate-sized lake connected three western Lahontan subbasins (the Smoke Creek-Black Rock Desert subbasin, the Pyramid Lake subbasin, and the Winnemucca Dry Lake subbasin) from about 45,000 to 16,500 yr B.P. Between 50,000 and 45,000 yr B.P., Walker Lake rose to its sill level in Adrian Valley and spilled to the Carson Desert subbasin. By 20,000 yr B.P., lake level in the western Lahontan subbasins had risen to about 1265 m above sea level, where it remained for 3500 yr. By 16,000 yr B.P., lake level in the western Lahontan subbasins had fallen to 1240 m. This recession appears synchronous with a desiccation of Walker Lake; however, whether the Walker Lake desiccation resulted from climate change or from diversion of the Walker River is not known. From about 15,000 to 13,500 yr B.P., lake level rapidly rose, so that Lake Lahontan was a single body of water by 14,000 yr B.P. The lake appears to have reached a maximum highstand altitude of 1330 m by 13,500 yr B.P., a condition that persisted until about 12,500 yr B.P., at which time lake level fell ???100 m. No data exist that indicate the level of lakes in the various subbasins between 12,000 and 10,000 yr B.P. During the Holocene, the Lahontan basin was the site of shallow lakes, with many subbasins being the site of one or more periods of desiccation. The shape of the lake-level curve for the three western subbasins indicates that past changes in the hydrologic balance (and hence climate) of the Lahontan basin were large in magnitude and took place in a rapid step-like manner. The rapid changes in lake level are hypothesized to have resulted from changes in the mean position of the jet stream, as it was forced north or south by the changing size and shape of the continental ice sheet. ?? 1987.

  1. Holocene depositional environments and surface-level changes at Lake Fryxell, Antarctica

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Whittaker, T.E.; Hall, B.L.; Hendy, C.H.; Spaulding, S.A.

    2008-01-01

    We report on Holocene surface-level variations of Lake Fryxell, Antarctica, as determined from multi-proxy analyses of 18 sediment cores. During this time accumulating sediments were predominantly aeolian sand with algal and carbonate laminae. Based on stratigraphy, mineralogy and diatom assemblages we suggest some carbonate laminae were deposited when lake level dropped, leading to concentration and subsequent precipitation of salts. Although lake level appears to have remained relatively stable throughout the Holocene, minor (<4.5 m below present) lowstands occurred at approximately 6400, 4700, 3800 and ??? 1600 cal. yr BP. The stability of Lake Fryxell during the Holocene contrasts with large-scale variability at other Dry Valleys lakes (eg, Lake Vanda) and with suggestions from chemical diffusion models of a near-desiccation at ???1200 cal. yr BP. The reason for the comparative stability of Lake Fryxell is uncertain, but may be the result of basin morphology and the number, aspect and proximity of meltwater sources. ?? 2008 SAGE Publications.

  2. Suspended-sediment budget, flow distribution, and lake circulation for the Fox Chain of Lakes in Lake and McHenry Counties, Illinois, 1997-99

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schrader, David L.; Holmes, Robert R.

    2000-01-01

    The Fox Chain of Lakes is a glacial lake system in McHenry and Lake Counties in northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. Sedimentation and nutrient overloading have occurred in the lake system since the first dam was built (1907) in McHenry to raise water levels in the lake system. Using data collected from December 1, 1997, to June 1, 1999, suspended-sediment budgets were constructed for the most upstream lake in the system, Grass Lake, and for the lakes downstream from Grass Lake. A total of 64,900 tons of suspended sediment entered Grass Lake during the study, whereas a total of 70,600 tons of suspended sediment exited the lake, indicating a net scour of 5,700 tons of sediment. A total of 44,100 tons of suspended sediment was measured exiting the Fox Chain of Lakes at Johnsburg, whereas 85,600 tons entered the system downstream from Grass Lake. These suspended-sediment loads indicate a net deposition of 41,500 tons downstream from Grass Lake, which represents a trapping efficiency of 48.5 percent. A large amount of recreational boating takes place on the Fox Chain of Lakes during summer months, and suspended-sediment load was observed to rise from 110 tons per day to 339 tons per day during the 1999 Memorial Day weekend (May 26 ?31, 1999). Presumably, this rise was the result of the boating traffic because no other hydrologic event is known to have occurred that might have caused the rise. This study covers a relatively short period and may not represent the long-term processes of the Fox Chain of Lakes system, although the sediment transport was probably higher than an average year. The bed sediments found on the bottom of the lakes are composed of mainly fine particles in the silt-clay range. The Grass Lake sediments were characterized as black peat with an organic content of between 9 and 18 percent, and the median particle size ranged from 0.000811 to 0.0013976 inches. Other bed material samples were collected at streamflow-gaging stations on the

  3. Glaciers and Sea Level Rise

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2013-05-15

    An airplane drops essential support on the Austfonna Ice Cap in Svalbard (Norwegian Arctic). The triangular structure is a corner reflector used as ground reference for airborne radar surveys. To learn about the contributions of glaciers to sea level rise, visit: www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/glacier-sea-rise.html Credit: Andrea Taurisano, Norwegian Polar Institute NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

  4. Anthropogenic sea level rise and adaptation in the Yangtze estuary

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheng, H.; Chen, J.; Chen, Z.; Ruan, R.; Xu, G.; Zeng, G.; Zhu, J.; Dai, Z.; Gu, S.; Zhang, X.; Wang, H.

    2016-02-01

    Sea level rise is a major projected threat of climate change. There are regional variations in sea level changes, depending on both naturally the tectonic subsidence, geomorphology, naturally changing river inputs and anthropogenic driven forces as artificial reservoir water impoundment within the watershed and urban land subsidence driven by ground water depletion in the river delta. Little is known on regional sea level fall in response to the channel erosion due to the sediment discharge decline by reservoir interception in the upstream watershed, and water level rise driven by anthropogenic measures as the land reclamation, deep waterway regulation and fresh water reservoir construction to the sea level change in estuaries. Changing coastal cities are situated in the delta regions expected to be threatened in various degrees. Shanghai belongs to those cities. Here we show that the anthropogenic driven sea level rise in the Yangtze estuary from the point of view of the continuous hydrodynamic system consisted of river catchment, estuary and coastal sea. Land subsidence is cited as 4 mm/a (2011-2030). Scour depth of the estuarine channel by upstream engineering as Three Gauge Dam is estimated at 2-10 cm (2011-2030). The rise of water level by deep waterway and land reclamation is estimated at 8-10 cm (2011-2030). The relative sea level rise will be speculated about 10 -16 cm (2011-2030), which these anthropogenic sea level changes will be imposed into the absolute sea level rise 2 mm/a and tectonic subsidence 1 mm/a measured in 1990s. The action guideline to the sea level rise strategy in the Shanghai city have been proposed to the Shanghai government as (1) recent actions (2012-2015) to upgrade the city water supply and drainage engineering and protective engineering; (2) interim actions (2016-2020) to improve sea level monitoring and early warning system, and then the special, city, regional planning considering sea level rise; (3) long term actions (2021

  5. What caused the decline of China's largest freshwater lake? Attribution analysis on Poyang Lake water level variations in recent years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ye, Xuchun; Xu, Chong-Yu; Zhang, Qi

    2017-04-01

    In recent years, dramatic decline of water level of the Poyang Lake, China's largest freshwater lake, has raised wide concerns about the water security and wetland ecosystem. This remarkable hydrological change coincided with several factors like the initial operation of the Three Gorges Dam (TGD) in 2003, the big change of lake bottom topography due to extensive sand mining in the lake since 2000, and also climate change and other human activities in the Yangtze River basin may add to this complexity. Questions raised to what extent that the lake hydrological changes is caused by climate change and/or human activities. In this study, quantitative assessment was conducted to clarify the magnitude and mechanism of specific influencing factors on recent lake decline (2003-2014), with reference to the period of 1980-1999. The attempts were achieved through the reconstruction of lake water level scenarios by the framework of neural network. Major result indicates that the effect of lake bottom topography change due to sand mining activities has became the dominant factor for the recent lake decline, especially in winter season with low water level. However, the effect of TGD regulation shows strong seasonal features, its effect can accounts for 33%-42% of the average water level decline across the lake during the impoundment period of September-October. In addition, the effect of climate change and other human activities over the Yangtze River basin needs to be highly addressed, which is particularly prominent on reducing lake water level during the summer flood season and autumn recession period. The result also revealed that due to different mechanism, the responses of the lake water level to the three influencing factors are not consistent and show great spatial and temporal differences.

  6. Future sea level rise constrained by observations and long-term commitment.

    PubMed

    Mengel, Matthias; Levermann, Anders; Frieler, Katja; Robinson, Alexander; Marzeion, Ben; Winkelmann, Ricarda

    2016-03-08

    Sea level has been steadily rising over the past century, predominantly due to anthropogenic climate change. The rate of sea level rise will keep increasing with continued global warming, and, even if temperatures are stabilized through the phasing out of greenhouse gas emissions, sea level is still expected to rise for centuries. This will affect coastal areas worldwide, and robust projections are needed to assess mitigation options and guide adaptation measures. Here we combine the equilibrium response of the main sea level rise contributions with their last century's observed contribution to constrain projections of future sea level rise. Our model is calibrated to a set of observations for each contribution, and the observational and climate uncertainties are combined to produce uncertainty ranges for 21st century sea level rise. We project anthropogenic sea level rise of 28-56 cm, 37-77 cm, and 57-131 cm in 2100 for the greenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP26, RCP45, and RCP85, respectively. Our uncertainty ranges for total sea level rise overlap with the process-based estimates of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The "constrained extrapolation" approach generalizes earlier global semiempirical models and may therefore lead to a better understanding of the discrepancies with process-based projections.

  7. Future sea level rise constrained by observations and long-term commitment

    PubMed Central

    Mengel, Matthias; Levermann, Anders; Frieler, Katja; Robinson, Alexander; Marzeion, Ben; Winkelmann, Ricarda

    2016-01-01

    Sea level has been steadily rising over the past century, predominantly due to anthropogenic climate change. The rate of sea level rise will keep increasing with continued global warming, and, even if temperatures are stabilized through the phasing out of greenhouse gas emissions, sea level is still expected to rise for centuries. This will affect coastal areas worldwide, and robust projections are needed to assess mitigation options and guide adaptation measures. Here we combine the equilibrium response of the main sea level rise contributions with their last century's observed contribution to constrain projections of future sea level rise. Our model is calibrated to a set of observations for each contribution, and the observational and climate uncertainties are combined to produce uncertainty ranges for 21st century sea level rise. We project anthropogenic sea level rise of 28–56 cm, 37–77 cm, and 57–131 cm in 2100 for the greenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP26, RCP45, and RCP85, respectively. Our uncertainty ranges for total sea level rise overlap with the process-based estimates of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The “constrained extrapolation” approach generalizes earlier global semiempirical models and may therefore lead to a better understanding of the discrepancies with process-based projections. PMID:26903648

  8. Projecting Future Sea Level Rise for Water Resources Planning in California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anderson, J.; Kao, K.; Chung, F.

    2008-12-01

    Sea level rise is one of the major concerns for the management of California's water resources. Higher water levels and salinity intrusion into the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta could affect water supplies, water quality, levee stability, and aquatic and terrestrial flora and fauna species and their habitat. Over the 20th century, sea levels near San Francisco Bay increased by over 0.6ft. Some tidal gauge and satellite data indicate that rates of sea level rise are accelerating. Sea levels are expected to continue to rise due to increasing air temperatures causing thermal expansion of the ocean and melting of land-based ice such as ice on Greenland and in southeastern Alaska. For water planners, two related questions are raised on the uncertainty of future sea levels. First, what is the expected sea level at a specific point in time in the future, e.g., what is the expected sea level in 2050? Second, what is the expected point of time in the future when sea levels will exceed a certain height, e.g., what is the expected range of time when the sea level rises by one foot? To address these two types of questions, two factors are considered: (1) long term sea level rise trend, and (2) local extreme sea level fluctuations. A two-step approach will be used to develop sea level rise projection guidelines for decision making that takes both of these factors into account. The first step is developing global sea level rise probability distributions for the long term trends. The second step will extend the approach to take into account the effects of local astronomical tides, changes in atmospheric pressure, wind stress, floods, and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. In this paper, the development of the first step approach is presented. To project the long term sea level rise trend, one option is to extend the current rate of sea level rise into the future. However, since recent data indicate rates of sea level rise are accelerating, methods for estimating sea level rise

  9. Water Level Monitoring on Tibetan Lakes Based on Icesat and Envisat Data Series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, H. W.; Qiao, G.; Wu, Y. J.; Cao, Y. J.; Mi, H.

    2017-09-01

    Satellite altimetry technique is an effective method to monitor the water level of lakes in a wide range, especially in sparsely populated areas, such as the Tibet Plateau (TP). To provide high quality data for time-series change detection of lake water level, an automatic and efficient algorithm for lake water footprint (LWF) detection in a wide range is used. Based on ICESat GLA14 Release634 data and ENVISat GDR 1Hz data, water level of 167 lakes were obtained from ICESat data series, and water level of 120 lakes were obtained from ENVISat data series. Among them, 67 lakes contained two data series. Mean standard deviation of all lakes is 0.088 meters (ICESat), 0.339 meters (ENVISat). Combination of multi-source altimetry data is helpful for us to get longer and more dense periods cover water level, study the lake level changes, manage water resources and understand the impacts of climate change better. In addition, the standard deviation of LWF elevation used to calculate the water level were analyzed by month. Based on lake data set for the TP from the 1960s, 2005, and 2014 in Scientific Data, it is found that the water level changes in the TP have a strong spatial correlation with the area changes.

  10. Sea-Level Rise and Flood Potential along the California Coast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Delepine, Q.; Leung, C.

    2013-12-01

    Sea-level rise is becoming an ever-increasing problem in California. Sea-level is expected to rise significantly in the next 100 years, which will raise flood elevations in coastal communities. This will be an issue for private homeowners, businesses, and the state. One study suggests that Venice Beach could lose a total of at least $440 million in tourism spending and tax dollars from flooding and beach erosion if sea level rises 1.4 m by 2100. In addition, several airports, such as San Francisco International Airport, are located in coastal regions that have flooded in the past and will likely be flooded again in the next 30 years, but sea-level rise is expected to worsen the effects of flooding in the coming decades It is vital for coastal communities to understand the risks associated with sea-level rise so that they can plan to adapt to it. By obtaining accurate LiDAR elevation data from the NOAA Digital Coast Website (http://csc.noaa.gov/dataviewer/?keyword=lidar#), we can create flood maps to simulate sea level rise and flooding. The data are uploaded to ArcGIS and contour lines are added for different elevations that represent future coastlines during 100-year flooding. The following variables are used to create the maps: 1. High-resolution land surface elevation data - obtained from NOAA 2. Local mean high water level - from USGS 3. Local 100-year flood water level - from the Pacific Institute 4. Sea-level rise projections for different future dates (2030, 2050, and 2100) - from the National Research Council The values from the last three categories are added to represent sea-level rise plus 100-year flooding. These values are used to make the contour lines that represent the projected flood elevations, which are then exported as KML files, which can be opened in Google Earth. Once these KML files are made available to the public, coastal communities will gain an improved understanding of how flooding and sea-level rise might affect them in the future

  11. Do water level fluctuations influence production of walleye and yellow perch young-of-the-year in large northern lakes?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Larson, James H.; Staples, David F.; Maki, Ryan P.; Vallazza, Jon M.; Knights, Brent C.; Peterson, Kevin E.

    2016-01-01

    Many ecological processes depend on the regular rise and fall of water levels (WLs), and artificial manipulations to WL regimes can impair important ecosystem services. Previous research has suggested that differences in WL between late summer and early spring may alter the suitability of shoals used by Walleyes Sander vitreus for spawning. Other species, such as the Yellow Perch Perca flavescens, are unlikely to be affected in the same way by WL fluctuations because their spawning requirements are quite different. We used 11–23 years of data from six northern Minnesota lakes to assess the effects of WL fluctuations on the abundances of young-of-the-year (age-0) Walleyes and Yellow Perch. In two lakes (Rainy Lake and Lake Kabetogama), a change in WL management occurred in 2000, after which these lakes saw increased age-0 Walleye abundance, while the other study lakes experienced decreases or no change. Rainy Lake and Lake Kabetogama also had increases in age-0 Yellow Perch, but another study lake did also. We used partial least-squares regression to assess whether WL metrics were associated with variation in age-0 Walleye and Yellow Perch abundances, but WL metrics were seldom associated with age-0 abundance for either species. Our analysis suggested a potential influence of WL regulation on age-0 Walleye abundance, but we found no evidence that early spring access to spawning shoals was the mechanism by which this occurred.

  12. Drastic lake level changes of Lake Van (eastern Turkey) during the past ca. 600 ka: climatic, volcanic and tectonic control

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cukur, D.; Krastel, S.; Schmincke, H.; Sumita, M.; Tomonaga, Y.; Damci, E.

    2013-12-01

    Lake Van is the largest soda lake in the world with a present surface of 3,574 km2 and a maximum water depth of 450 m. Sedimentary deposits in the lake preserve one of the most complete record of continental climate in the Middle East since the Middle Pleistocene. We studied these deposits to characterize the evolution of the lake level and its possible relationships with changes in climate, volcanic, and regional tectonics since the formation of the lake ca. 600 ka ago. Changes in lake level were determined based on high-resolution seismic reflection profiles showing erosional surfaces, changes in stratal geometries such as downward shifts in coastal onlap, and recognition of distinctive stratigraphic features such as prograding delta clinoforms. Our results show that Lake Van has undergone drastic changes in surface elevation by as much as 600 meters over the past ca. 600 ka. Five major lowstands occurred at ca. ~600 ka, ca. 365-340 ka, ca 290-230 ka; ca. 150-130 ka; and ca. 30-14 ka. During a first period (A) (ca. 600-ca 230 ka) lake levels changed drastically by hundreds of m but at longer time intervals between low and high stands. Changes occurred more frequently but mostly by a few tens of m during the past ca. 230 ka years where we can distinguish a first period (B1) of stepwise transgressions between ca. 230 and 150 ka followed by a short regression between ca. 150 and 130 ka. Lake level rose stepwise again during period B2 lasting until ca 30 ka. During the past 30 ka a regression and a final transgression each lasted ca. 15 ka years. The major lowstand periods in Lake Van occurred during glacial periods, arguing for a climatic control of these lake-level fluctuations (i.e., significantly reduced precipitation leading to lake level low stands). Although climate forcing may have been the dominant cause for the drastic lake level changes of Lake Van, volcanic and tectonic forcing factors are also invoked. For example, the number of distinct tephra layers

  13. Relation between selected water-quality variables and lake level in Upper Klamath and Agency Lakes, Oregon

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wood, Tamara M.; Fuhrer, Gregory J.; Morace, Jennifer L.

    1996-01-01

    Based on the analysis of data that they have been collecting for several years, the Klamath Tribes recently recommended that the Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) modify the operating plan for the dam to make the minimum lake levels for the June-August period more closely resemble pre-dam conditions (Jacob Kann, written commun., 1995). The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) was asked to analyze the available data for the lake and to assess whether the evidence exists to conclude that year-to-year differences in certain lake water-quality variables are related to year-to-year differences in lake level. The results of the analysis will be used as scientific input in the process of developing an operating plan for the Link River Dam.

  14. Stability of lava lakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Witham, Fred; Llewellin, Edward W.

    2006-11-01

    A physical model of a generic lava lake system is developed. We derive the requisite conditions for the existence of an 'equilibrium lava lake' in which magmastatic pressure at the base of the conduit balances the pressure in the underlying magmatic reservoir. The stability of this lava lake system is tested by investigating the response of the system to perturbation. We develop a graphical method, based on the system's pressure-depth profile, to predict the subsequent behaviour of the system. Despite the simplicity of the modelled system, we find a broad behavioural spectrum. Initially, the rise of bubbles through the magma is ignored. In this case, both stable, long-lived lava lakes, and unstable lakes that are prone to sudden draining, are predicted. The stability of the system is shown to be controlled by lake-conduit geometry, the solubility and gas expansion laws and the magma's volatile content. We show that an unstable lake must collapse to a new, stable equilibrium. Subsequent recharge of the system by, for example, conduit overturn, would promote a return to the original equilibrium, giving rise to cyclic behaviour. Such a mechanism is consistent with lava lake behaviour during the 1983-1984 Pu'u 'O'o eruption of Kilauea. When the rise of bubbles through the magma is considered, our model predicts that stable lakes must drain over time. We, therefore, deduce that persistently degassing, stable lava lakes, such as those observed at Mt. Erebus, Antarctica, and Mauna Ulu, Kilauea, Hawaii, must have an effective conduit convection mechanism or an exogenous supply of bubbles from depth.

  15. Glaciers and Sea Level Rise

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2017-12-08

    Calving front of the Perito Moreno Glacier (Argentina). Contrary to the majority of the glaciers from the southern Patagonian ice field, the Perito Moreno Glacier is currently stable. It is also one of the most visited glaciers in the world. To learn about the contributions of glaciers to sea level rise, visit: www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/glacier-sea-rise.html Credit: Etienne Berthier, Université de Toulouse NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

  16. Glaciers and Sea Level Rise

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2017-12-08

    The Aletsch Glacier in Switzerland is the largest valley glacier in the Alps. Its volume loss since the middle of the 19th century is well-visible from the trimlines to the right of the image. To learn about the contributions of glaciers to sea level rise, visit: www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/glacier-sea-rise.html Credit: Frank Paul, University of Zurich NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

  17. Possible connection between large volcanic eruptions and level rise episodes in the Dead Sea Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bookman, R.; Filin, S.; Avni, Y.; Rosenfeld, D.; Marco, S.

    2014-12-01

    The June 1991 Pinatubo volcanic eruption perturbed the atmosphere, triggering short-term worldwide changes in climate. The following winter was anomalously wet in the Levant, with a ~2-meter increase in the Dead Sea level that created a morphological terrace along the lake's shore. Given the global effects of volcanogenic aerosols, we tested the hypothesis that the 1991-92 shore terrace is a modern analogue to the linkage between past volcanic eruptions and a sequence of shore terraces in the Dead Sea Basin. Analysis of precipitation series from Jerusalem showed a significant positive correlation between the Dust Veil Index (DVI) of the modern eruptions and annual rainfall. The DVI was found to explain nearly 50% of the variability in the annual rainfall, such that greater DVI means more rainfall. Other factors that may affect the annual rainfall in the region as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the North Atlantic oscillations (NAO) were incorporated along with the DVI in a linear multiple regression model. It was found that the NAO did not contribute anything except for increased noise, but the added SOI increased the explained variability of rainfall to more than 60%. Volcanic eruptions with a VEI of 6, as in the Pinatubo, occurred about once a century during the Holocene and the last glacial-interglacial cycle. This occurrence is similar to the frequency of shore terrace build-up during the Lake Lisan desiccation. Sixteen shore terraces, detected using airborne laser scanning data, were interpreted as indicating short-term level rises due to episodes of enhanced precipitation and runoff during the dramatic drop in Lake Lisan's (palaeo-Dead Sea) level at the end of the LGM. The terraces were compared with a time series of volcanogenic sulfate from the GISP2 record, and similar numbers of sulfate concentration peaks and terraces were found. Furthermore, a significant correlation was found between SO4 concentration peaks and the terraces heights. This

  18. Measuring historic water levels of Lake Balaton and tributary wetlands using georeferenced maps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zlinszky, A.

    2009-04-01

    Lake Balaton is a large and relatively shallow lake located in western Hungary. The lake is joined by small wetlands on the north shore and larger water-filled valleys on the south separated by and elevated sand bar. These wetlands are assumed to have been connected with Lake Balaton before the water level was artificially lowered in 1893. No regular measurements of the water level of the lake or these wetlands were carried out before the draining of the lake. Most of the wetlands were completely isolated from the water system of the lake after the water level change as roads, railway and holiday homes were built. The low valleys of the southern shore still hold many fishponds, swamps and wet meadows, which are important sanctuaries for rare wetland species, and are often less disturbed than the lake, which is a popular holiday resort. Hydrologic restoration of these wetlands is only possible if accurate information exists on the original, natural state. The 1776 Krieger-map and the first military survey (1782-1785) are the most accurate known maps of the original state of the Lake Balaton area. These maps were surveyed using triangulation and leveling, and are accurate enough to be compared with the present-day situation. Some of the depicted buildings and landmarks still survive and can be used as control points for georeferencing and correcting these maps. Since the bathymetry of the lake and the topography of the surrounding countryside have hardly changed, existing digital elevation models of the present-day relief could be compared to these georeferenced maps. The elevation profile of the lake shore and wetland borders can be calculated by tracing these lines on a Digital Elevation Model. The shore area of Lake Balaton has been filled in and changed, so present-day land topography can not be used to estimate the water level from the elevation profile of the shore line. However, the Krieger-map also shows bathymetric contours, and previous studies have shown

  19. Lake-level increasing under the climate cryoaridization conditions during the Last Glacial Maximum

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Amosov, Mikhail; Strelkov, Ivan

    2017-04-01

    A lake genesis and lake-level increasing during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) are the paramount issues in paleoclimatology. Investigating these problems reveals the regularities of lake development and figures out an arid territory conditions at the LGM stage. Pluvial theory is the most prevalent conception of lake formation during the LGM. This theory is based on a fact that the water bodies emerged and their level increased due to torrential rainfalls. In this study, it is paid attention to an alternative assumption of lake genesis at the LGM stage, which is called climate cryoaridization. In accordance with this hypothesis, the endorheic water basins had their level enlarged because of a simultaneous climate aridity and temperature decrease. In this research, a lake-level increasing in endorheic regions of Central Asia and South American Altiplano of the Andes is described. The lake investigation is related to its conditions during the LGM. The study also includes a lake catalogue clearly presenting the basin conditions at the LGM stage and nowadays. The data compilation partly consists of information from an earlier work of Mikhail Amosov, Lake-levels, Vegetation And Climate In Central Asia During The Last Glacial Maximum (EGU2014-3015). According to the investigation, a lake catalogue on 27 lakes showed that most of the water bodies had higher level. This feature could be mentioned for the biggest lakes of the Aral Sea, Lake Balkhash, Issyk-Kul etc. and for the small ones located in the mountains, such as Pamir, Tian-Shan and Tibet. Yet some lakes that are situated in Central Asian periphery (Lake Qinghai and lakes in Inner Mongolia) used to be lower than nowadays. Also, the lake-level increasing of Altiplano turned to be a significant feature during the LGM in accordance with the data of 5 lakes, such as Titicaca, Coipasa-Uyuni, Lejia, Miscanti and Santa-Maria. Most of the current endorheic basins at the LGM stage were filled with water due to abundant

  20. Lake Level Changes in the Mono Basin During the Last Deglacial Period

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, X.; Ali, G.; Hemming, S. R.; Zimmerman, S. R. H.; Stine, S. W.; Hemming, G.

    2014-12-01

    Mono Basin, located in the southwestern corner of the US Great Basin, has long been known to have experienced large lake level changes, particularly during the last deglaciation. But until recently it was not possible to establish a reliable lake level time series. We discovered many visually clean, white, shiny, dense calcite samples in the basin, associated with tufa deposits from high terraces. Their low thorium, but high uranium contents allow precise and reproducible U/Th age determinations. A highly resolved history of a minimum lake level through the last deglaciation can therefore be inferred based on sample locations and their ages. We found that the lake level reached ~2030 m asl at ~20.4 ka, evidenced by calcite coatings on a tufa mound at the upper Wilson Creek. The lake then rose to ~2075 m by ~19.1 ka, shown by calcite cements on conglomerates from the Hansen Cut terrace. The lake climbed to at least ~2140 m at ~15.9 ka, indicated by beach calcites from the east Sierra slope. Such timing of the highest lake stand, occurring within Heinrich Stadial 1, is reinforced by U/Th dates on calcite coatings from widespread locations in the basin, including the Bodie Hills and Cowtrack Mountains. The lake then dropped rapidly to ~2075 m at ~14.5 ka. It stood near this height over the next ~300 years, evidenced by a few-centimeter thick, laminated calcite rims on the Goat Ranch tufa mounds. It subsequently plunged to ~2007 m at ~13.8 ka, indicated by calcite coatings from cemetery road tufa mounds. The lake level came back to ~2030 m at ~12.9 ka, as seen in upper Wilson Creek tufa mounds. The lake level had a few fluctuations within the Younger Dryas, and even shot up to ~2075 m at ~12.0 ka. It then fell to levels in accord with Holocene climatic conditions. Relative to the present lake level of ~1950 m, Mono Lake broadly stood high during Heinrich Stadial 1 and Younger Dryas, when the climate was extremely cold over the North Atlantic, and the Asian monsoon was

  1. Links between type E botulism outbreaks, lake levels, and surface water temperatures in Lake Michigan, 1963-2008

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lafrancois, Brenda Moraska; Riley, Stephen C.; Blehert, David S.; Ballmann, Anne E.

    2011-01-01

    Relationships between large-scale environmental factors and the incidence of type E avian botulism outbreaks in Lake Michigan were examined from 1963 to 2008. Avian botulism outbreaks most frequently occurred in years with low mean annual water levels, and lake levels were significantly lower in outbreak years than in non-outbreak years. Mean surface water temperatures in northern Lake Michigan during the period when type E outbreaks tend to occur (July through September) were significantly higher in outbreak years than in non-outbreak years. Trends in fish populations did not strongly correlate with botulism outbreaks, although botulism outbreaks in the 1960s coincided with high alewife abundance, and recent botulism outbreaks coincided with rapidly increasing round goby abundance. Botulism outbreaks occurred cyclically, and the frequency of outbreaks did not increase over the period of record. Climate change scenarios for the Great Lakes predict lower water levels and warmer water temperatures. As a consequence, the frequency and magnitude of type E botulism outbreaks in the Great Lakes may increase.

  2. Deciphering The Fall And Rise Of The Dead Sea In Relation To Solar Forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yousef, Shahinaz M.

    2005-03-01

    Solar Forcing on closed seas and Lakes is space time dependent. The Cipher of the Dead Sea level variation since 1200 BC is solved in the context of millenium and Wolf-Gleissberg solar cycles time scales. It is found that the pattern of Dead Sea level variation follows the pattern of major millenium solar cycles. The 70 m rise of Dead Sea around 1AD is due to the forcing of the maximum millenium major solar cycle. Although the pattern of the Dead Sea level variation is almost identical to major solar cycles pattern between 1100 and 1980 AD, there is a dating problem of the Dead Sea time series around 1100-1300 AD that time. A discrepancy that should be corrected for the solar and Dead Sea series to fit. Detailed level variations of the Dead Sea level for the past 200 years are solved in terms of the 80-120 years solar Wolf-Gliessberg magnetic cycles. Solar induced climate changes do happen at the turning points of those cycles. Those end-start and maximum turning points are coincident with the change in the solar rotation rate due to the presence of weak solar cycles. Such weak cycles occur in series of few cycles between the end and start of those Wolf-Gleissberg cycles. Another one or two weak r solar cycle occur following the maximum of those Wolf-Gleissberg cycles. Weak cycles induce drop in the energy budget emitted from the sun and reaching the Earth thus causing solar induced climate change. An 8 meter sudden rise of Dead Sea occur prior 1900 AD due to positive solar forcing of the second cycle of the weak cycles series on the Dead Sea. The same second weak cycle induced negative solar forcing on Lake Chad. The first weak solar cycle forced Lake Victoria to rise abruptly in 1878. The maximum turning point of the solar Wolf-Gleissberg cycle induced negative forcing on both the Aral Sea and the Dead Sea causing their shrinkage to an alarming reduced area ever since. On the other hand, few years delayed positive forcing caused Lake Chad and the Equatorial

  3. Rise and fall of a small ice-dammed lake - Role of deglaciation processes and morphology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nehyba, Slavomír; Hanáček, Martin; Engel, Zbyněk; Stachoň, Zdeněk

    2017-10-01

    A small ice-dammed lake, which developed along the margin of Nordenskiöldbreen on the northern coast of Adolfbukta, (central Spitsbergen, Svalbard) has been studied by a combination of facies analysis, ground penetrating radar, analysis of photos and satellite imagery, and by surface mapping by Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (drone). The lake existed between the years 1990-2012 and occupied two partial depressions in the bedrock, separated by a bedrock ridge for the dominant period of its history. Whereas the eastern depression was almost completely infilled due to direct fluvial input, the western depression revealed only thin sedimentary cover and was dotted from the eastern depression by an outflow of surficial waters. Gilbert delta deposits with typical tripartite zones of topset, foreset and bottomset were recognised in the eastern depression. Topset was comprised by deposits of a braided river. Foreset is formed by deposits of sediment gravity flows (turbidity currents and debris flows). Bottomset is represented by alternating suspension deposits and deposits of hyperpycnal underflows (low-density turbidity currents). The ruling factors of the evolution of the delta were glacier retreat, bedrock morphology, both affecting the relative lake level, and the rate of sediment delivery. Glacier retreat over stepped and inclined bedrock morphology led to delta prograding and downstepping. The recognised fluvio-deltaic terraces revealed four lake level falls followed by fluvial downcutting, erosion and redeposition of the older deltaic/lake deposits, the shifting of the lake's position towards the damming glacier and the transition of the sediment input in the same direction. The termination of the lake was a result of further glacier retreat and the opening of subglacial drainage.

  4. Salt marsh persistence is threatened by predicted sea-level rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crosby, Sarah C.; Sax, Dov F.; Palmer, Megan E.; Booth, Harriet S.; Deegan, Linda A.; Bertness, Mark D.; Leslie, Heather M.

    2016-11-01

    Salt marshes buffer coastlines and provide critical ecosystem services from storm protection to food provision. Worldwide, these ecosystems are in danger of disappearing if they cannot increase elevation at rates that match sea-level rise. However, the magnitude of loss to be expected is not known. A synthesis of existing records of salt marsh elevation change was conducted in order to consider the likelihood of their future persistence. This analysis indicates that many salt marshes did not keep pace with sea-level rise in the past century and kept pace even less well over the past two decades. Salt marshes experiencing higher local sea-level rise rates were less likely to be keeping pace. These results suggest that sea-level rise will overwhelm most salt marshes' capacity to maintain elevation. Under the most optimistic IPCC emissions pathway, 60% of the salt marshes studied will be gaining elevation at a rate insufficient to keep pace with sea-level rise by 2100. Without mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions this potential loss could exceed 90%, which will have substantial ecological, economic, and human health consequences.

  5. Glaciers and Sea Level Rise

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2017-12-08

    Calving front of the Upsala Glacier (Argentina). This glacier has been thinning and retreating at a rapid rate during the last decades – from 2006 to 2010, it receded 43.7 yards (40 meters) per year. During summer 2012, large calving events prevented boat access to the glacier. To learn about the contributions of glaciers to sea level rise, visit: www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/glacier-sea-rise.html Credit: Etienne Berthier, Université de Toulouse NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

  6. The Provo shoreline of Lake Bonneville: Chapter 7

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Miller, David

    2016-01-01

    G.K. Gilbert studied the Bonneville basin 150 years ago and his findings have largely stood the test of time: The Provo shoreline, the most prominent geomorphic feature of Lake Bonneville, reflects threshold-stabilized overflow of the lake after the Bonneville flood and before a drier climate caused the lake to shrink. Subsequent refinements in chronology allow the Provo lake to be identified as about 18.2–14.8 cal ka BP, and stratigraphic studies show that the lake was gradually growing deeper during that time. Because the lake deepened through time as isostatic rebound occurred, individual landforms in general reflect processes operating for a small part of the ~ 3400 year of Provo time. Opportunities remain to improve our knowledge of the Provo lake; topics include (1) refinement of lake levels using delta and beach stratigraphy; (2) improved understanding of lake water chemistry and its role in determining deep-water sediment and cave deposits, which have disparate interpretations; (3) identifying processes at the threshold that caused the lake level to rise; and (4) identifying climate variability signals during Provo time.

  7. Climate Adaptation and Sea Level Rise

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA supports the development and maintenance of water utility infrastructure across the country. Included in this effort is helping the nation’s water utilities anticipate, plan for, and adapt to risks from flooding, sea level rise, and storm surge.

  8. Lake water levels across the U.S.: What are the spatial patterns and drivers of water level change?

    EPA Science Inventory

    Background Lake water-level changes affect the physical, chemical, and biological condition of lakes; and we expect that disturbances such as land use conversion, water withdrawal, and climate change may alter water-level regimes and impact lake integrity. However, we have a poor...

  9. Early Holocene Great Salt Lake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Oviatt, Charles G.; Madsen, David B.; Miller, David; Thompson, Robert S.; McGeehin, John P.

    2015-01-01

    Shorelines and surficial deposits (including buried forest-floor mats and organic-rich wetland sediments) show that Great Salt Lake did not rise higher than modern lake levels during the earliest Holocene (11.5–10.2 cal ka BP; 10–9 14C ka BP). During that period, finely laminated, organic-rich muds (sapropel) containing brine-shrimp cysts and pellets and interbedded sodium-sulfate salts were deposited on the lake floor. Sapropel deposition was probably caused by stratification of the water column — a freshwater cap possibly was formed by groundwater, which had been stored in upland aquifers during the immediately preceding late-Pleistocene deep-lake cycle (Lake Bonneville), and was actively discharging on the basin floor. A climate characterized by low precipitation and runoff, combined with local areas of groundwater discharge in piedmont settings, could explain the apparent conflict between evidence for a shallow lake (a dry climate) and previously published interpretations for a moist climate in the Great Salt Lake basin of the eastern Great Basin.

  10. Building more effective sea level rise models for coastal management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kidwell, D.; Buckel, C.; Collini, R.; Meckley, T.

    2017-12-01

    For over a decade, increased attention on coastal resilience and adaptation to sea level rise has resulted in a proliferation of predictive models and tools. This proliferation has enhanced our understanding of our vulnerability to sea level rise, but has also led to stakeholder fatigue in trying to realize the value of each advancement. These models vary in type and complexity ranging from GIS-based bathtub viewers to modeling systems that dynamically couple complex biophysical and geomorphic processes. These approaches and capabilities typically have the common purpose using scenarios of global and regional sea level change to inform adaptation and mitigation. In addition, stakeholders are often presented a plethora of options to address sea level rise issues from a variety of agencies, academics, and consulting firms. All of this can result in confusion, misapplication of a specific model/tool, and stakeholder feedback of "no more new science or tools, just help me understand which one to use". Concerns from stakeholders have led to the question; how do we move forward with sea level rise modeling? This presentation will provide a synthesis of the experiences and feedback derived from NOAA's Ecological Effects of Sea level Rise (EESLR) program to discuss the future of predictive sea level rise impact modeling. EESLR is an applied research program focused on the advancement of dynamic modeling capabilities in collaboration with local and regional stakeholders. Key concerns from stakeholder engagement include questions about model uncertainty, approaches for model validation, and a lack of cross-model comparisons. Effective communication of model/tool products, capabilities, and results is paramount to address these concerns. Looking forward, the most effective predictions of sea level rise impacts on our coast will be attained through a focus on coupled modeling systems, particularly those that connect natural processes and human response.

  11. The complex reality of sea-level rise in an atoll nation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donner, S. D.

    2012-12-01

    Sea-level rise famously poses an existential threat to island nations like Kiribati, Tuvalu and the Maldives. Yet as the global mean sea-level rises, the response of any one location at any given time will depend on the natural variability in regional sea-level and other impact of local human activities on coastal processes. As with climate warming, the state of an individual shoreline or the extent of flooding on a given day is not proof of a sea-level trend, nor is a global sea-level trend a good predictor of individual flooding or erosion events. Failure to consider the effect of natural variability and local human activity on coastal processes often leads to misattribution of flooding events and even some long-term shoreline changes to global sea level rise. Moreover, unverified attribution of individual events or changes to specific islets to sea level rise can inflame or invite scepticism of the strong scientific evidence for an accelerating increase in the global sea level due to the impacts of human activity on the climate system. This is particularly important in developing nations like Kiribati, which are depending on international financial support to adapt to rising sea levels. In this presentation, I use gauge data and examples from seven years of field work in Tarawa Atoll, the densely populated capital of Kiribati, to examine the complexity of local sea level and shoreline change in one of the world's most vulnerable countries. First, I discuss how the combination of El Nino-driven variability in sea-level and the astronomical tidal cycle leads to flooding and erosion events which can be mistaken for evidence of sea-level rise. Second, I show that human modification to shorelines has redirected sediment supply, leading, in some cases, to expansion of islets despite rising sea levels. Taken together, the analysis demonstrates the challenge of attributing particular coastal events to global mean sea-level rise and the impact on decision-making. The

  12. Water level management of lakes connected to regulated rivers: An integrated modeling and analytical methodology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, Tengfei; Mao, Jingqiao; Pan, Shunqi; Dai, Lingquan; Zhang, Peipei; Xu, Diandian; Dai, Huichao

    2018-07-01

    Reservoir operations significantly alter the hydrological regime of the downstream river and river-connected lake, which has far-reaching impacts on the lake ecosystem. To facilitate the management of lakes connected to regulated rivers, the following information must be provided: (1) the response of lake water levels to reservoir operation schedules in the near future and (2) the importance of different rivers in terms of affecting the water levels in different lake regions of interest. We develop an integrated modeling and analytical methodology for the water level management of such lakes. The data-driven method is used to model the lake level as it has the potential of producing quick and accurate predictions. A new genetic algorithm-based synchronized search is proposed to optimize input variable time lags and data-driven model parameters simultaneously. The methodology also involves the orthogonal design and range analysis for extracting the influence of an individual river from that of all the rivers. The integrated methodology is applied to the second largest freshwater lake in China, the Dongting Lake. The results show that: (1) the antecedent lake levels are of crucial importance for the current lake level prediction; (2) the selected river discharge time lags reflect the spatial heterogeneity of the rivers' impacts on lake level changes; (3) the predicted lake levels are in very good agreement with the observed data (RMSE ≤ 0.091 m; R2 ≥ 0.9986). This study demonstrates the practical potential of the integrated methodology, which can provide both the lake level responses to future dam releases and the relative contributions of different rivers to lake level changes.

  13. Holocene lake level changes at a lowland lake in northeastern Germany inferred from acoustic sub-bottom profiling and a transect of sediment cores

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dietze, Elisabeth; Zawiska, Izabela; Słowiński, Michał; Brauer, Achim

    2015-04-01

    Holocene lake level changes were studied at Lake Fürstenseer See, a typical lake with complex basin morphology in northeastern German sandur area. An acoustic sub-bottom profile and a transect of four long sediment cores in the deepest lake sub-basin were analyzed. The cores were dated with AMS-14C and correlated with multiple proxies (sediment facies, μ-XRF, macrofossils, subfossil Cladocera, carbonate isotopes). At sites in 10 and 15 m water depth, shifts in the sand-mud boundary, i.e. sediment limit sensu Digerfeldt (1986), allowed quantitative estimates of the absolute amplitude of lake level changes. At sites in 20 and 23 m water depth, the negative correlation of Ca and Ti reflect lake level changes qualitatively. During high lake stands massive organic muds were deposited. Lower lake levels isolated the lake sub-basins which reduced the overall water circulation and lead to the deposition of Ti-poor carbonate muds. Furthermore, macrofossil and subfossil Cladocera analyses were used as proxies for the intense reworking at the slope and for the trophic state of the lake, respectively. Lake levels were up to 4 m higher, e.g. around 5000 cal. yrs BP and during the Medieval time period (see also Kaiser et al., 2014). During the early to mid-Holocene (between 9400 and 6400 cal. yrs BP), Lake Fürstenseer See fluctuated at an at least 3-m lower level. Further water level changes can be related to known climatic events and regional human impact. Digerfeldt, G., 1986. Studies on past lake-level fluctuations. In Berglund, B. (ed.), Handbook of Holocene Palaeoecology and Palaeohydrology: 127-144. John Wiley & Sons, New York. Kaiser, K., Küster, M., Fülling, A., Theuerkauf, M., Dietze, E., Graventein, H., Koch, P.J., Bens, O., Brauer, A., 2014. Littoral landforms and pedosedimentary sequences indicating late Holocene lake-level changes in northern central Europe ' A case study from northeastern Germany. Geomorphology 216, 58-78.

  14. Can We Use Tree Rings of Black Alder to Reconstruct Lake Levels? A Case Study for the Mecklenburg Lake District, Northeastern Germany

    PubMed Central

    van der Maaten, Ernst; van der Maaten-Theunissen, Marieke; Buras, Allan; Scharnweber, Tobias; Simard, Sonia; Kaiser, Knut; Lorenz, Sebastian; Wilmking, Martin

    2015-01-01

    In this study, we explore the potential to reconstruct lake-level (and groundwater) fluctuations from tree-ring chronologies of black alder (Alnus glutinosa L.) for three study lakes in the Mecklenburg Lake District, northeastern Germany. As gauging records for lakes in this region are generally short, long-term reconstructions of lake-level fluctuations could provide valuable information on past hydrological conditions, which, in turn, are useful to assess dynamics of climate and landscape evolution. We selected black alder as our study species as alder typically thrives as riparian vegetation along lakeshores. For the study lakes, we tested whether a regional signal in lake-level fluctuations and in the growth of alder exists that could be used for long-term regional hydrological reconstructions, but found that local (i.e. site-specific) signals in lake level and tree-ring chronologies prevailed. Hence, we built lake/groundwater-level reconstruction models for the three study lakes individually. Two sets of models were considered based on (1) local tree-ring series of black alder, and (2) site-specific Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Indices (SPEI). Although the SPEI-based models performed statistically well, we critically reflect on the reliability of these reconstructions, as SPEI cannot account for human influence. Tree-ring based reconstruction models, on the other hand, performed poor. Combined, our results suggest that, for our study area, long-term regional reconstructions of lake-level fluctuations that consider both recent and ancient (e.g., archaeological) wood of black alder seem extremely challenging, if not impossible. PMID:26317768

  15. Separated by sand, fused by dropping water: habitat barriers and fluctuating water levels steer the evolution of rock-dwelling cichlid populations in Lake Tanganyika.

    PubMed

    Koblmüller, Stephan; Salzburger, Walter; Obermüller, Beate; Eigner, Eva; Sturmbauer, Christian; Sefc, Kristina M

    2011-06-01

    The conditions of phenotypic and genetic population differentiation allow inferences about the evolution, preservation and loss of biological diversity. In Lake Tanganyika, water level fluctuations are assumed to have had a major impact on the evolution of stenotopic littoral species, though this hypothesis has not been specifically examined so far. The present study investigates whether subtly differentiated colour patterns of adjacent Tropheus moorii populations are maintained in isolation or in the face of continuous gene flow, and whether the presumed influence of water level fluctuations on lacustrine cichlids can be demonstrated in the small-scale population structure of the strictly stenotopic, littoral Tropheus. Distinct population differentiation was found even across short geographic distances and minor habitat barriers. Population splitting chronology and demographic histories comply with our expectation of old and rather stable populations on steeper sloping shore, and more recently established populations in a shallower region. Moreover, population expansions seem to coincide with lake level rises in the wake of Late Pleistocene megadroughts ~100 KYA. The imprint of hydrologic events on current population structure in the absence of ongoing gene flow suggests that phenotypic differentiation among proximate Tropheus populations evolves and persists in genetic isolation. Sporadic gene flow is effected by lake level fluctuations following climate changes and controlled by the persistence of habitat barriers during lake level changes. Since similar demographic patterns were previously reported for Lake Malawi cichlids, our data furthermore strengthen the hypothesis that major climatic events synchronized facets of cichlid evolution across the East African Great Lakes. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  16. Lake-levels, vegetation and climate in Central Asia during the Last Glacial Maximum

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Amosov, Mikhail

    2014-05-01

    Central Asian region is bounded in the east corner of the Greater Khingan Range and the Loess Plateau, and to the west - the Caspian Sea. This representation of region boundaries is based on classical works of A.Humboldt and V.Obruchev. Three typical features of Central Asia nature are: climate aridity, extensive inland drainage basins with numerous lakes and mountain systems with developed glaciation. Nowadays the extensive data is accumulated about lake-levels during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in Central Asia. Data compilation on 20 depressions, where lakes exist now or where they existed during LGM, shows that most of them had usually higher lake-level than at present time. This regularity could be mentioned for the biggest lakes (the Aral Sea, the Balkhash, the Ysyk-Kol etc.) and for small ones that located in the mountains (Tien Shan, Pamir and Tibet). All of these lake basins get the precipitation due to westerlies. On the other hand lakes, which are located in region's east rimland (Lake Qinghai and lakes in Inner Mongolia) and get the precipitation due to summer East Asian monsoons, do not comply with the proposed regularity. During LGM these lake-levels were lower than nowadays. Another exception is Lake Manas, its lake-level was also lowered. Lake Manas is situated at the bottom of Junggar Basin. There are many small rivers, which come from the ranges and suffer the violent fluctuation in the position of its lower channel. It is possible to assume that some of its runoff did not get to Lake Manas during LGM. Mentioned facts suggest that levels of the most Central Asian lakes were higher during LGM comparing to their current situation. However, at that period vegetation was more xerophytic than now. Pollen data confirm this information for Tibet, Pamir and Tien Shan. Climate aridization of Central Asia can be proved by data about the intensity of loess accumulation during LGM. This evidence received for the east part of region (the Loess Plateau) and

  17. Regional economic impacts of water management alternatives: the case of Devils Lake, North Dakota, USA.

    PubMed

    Leistritz, F Larry; Leitch, Jay A; Bangsund, Dean A

    2002-12-01

    Devils Lake, located in a closed basin in northeastern North Dakota has over a century-long history of highly fluctuating water levels. The lake has risen nearly 25 feet (7.7 m) since 1993, more than doubling its surface area. Rising water levels have affected rural lands, transportation routes, and communities near the lake. In response to rising lake levels, Federal, state and local agencies have adopted a three-part approach to flood damage reduction, consisting of (1) upper basin water management to reduce the amount of water reaching the lake, (2) protection for structures and infrastructure if the lake continues to rise, and (3) developing an emergency outlet to release some lake water. The purpose of this study was to provide information about the net regional economic effects of a proposed emergency outlet for Devils Lake. An input-output model was used to estimate the regional economic effects of the outlet, under two scenarios: (1) the most likely future situation (MLS) and (2) a best case situation (BCS) (i.e., where the benefits from the outlet would be greatest), albeit an unlikely one. Regional economic effects of the outlet include effects on transportation (road and railroad construction), agriculture (land kept in production, returned to production sooner, or kept in production longer), residential relocations, and outlet construction expenditures. Effects are measured as changes in gross business volume (gross receipts) for various sectors, secondary employment, and local tax collections. The net regional economic effects of the proposed outlet would be relatively small, and consideration of these economic impacts would not strengthen the case for an outlet.

  18. Glacial lake inventory and lake outburst potential in Uzbekistan.

    PubMed

    Petrov, Maxim A; Sabitov, Timur Y; Tomashevskaya, Irina G; Glazirin, Gleb E; Chernomorets, Sergey S; Savernyuk, Elena A; Tutubalina, Olga V; Petrakov, Dmitriy A; Sokolov, Leonid S; Dokukin, Mikhail D; Mountrakis, Giorgos; Ruiz-Villanueva, Virginia; Stoffel, Markus

    2017-08-15

    Climate change has been shown to increase the number of mountain lakes across various mountain ranges in the World. In Central Asia, and in particular on the territory of Uzbekistan, a detailed assessment of glacier lakes and their evolution over time is, however lacking. For this reason we created the first detailed inventory of mountain lakes of Uzbekistan based on recent (2002-2014) satellite observations using WorldView-2, SPOT5, and IKONOS imagery with a spatial resolution from 2 to 10m. This record was complemented with data from field studies of the last 50years. The previous data were mostly in the form of inventories of lakes, available in Soviet archives, and primarily included localized in-situ data. The inventory of mountain lakes presented here, by contrast, includes an overview of all lakes of the territory of Uzbekistan. Lakes were considered if they were located at altitudes above 1500m and if lakes had an area exceeding 100m 2 . As in other mountain regions of the World, the ongoing increase of air temperatures has led to an increase in lake number and area. Moreover, the frequency and overall number of lake outburst events have been on the rise as well. Therefore, we also present the first outburst assessment with an updated version of well-known approaches considering local climate features and event histories. As a result, out of the 242 lakes identified on the territory of Uzbekistan, 15% are considered prone to outburst, 10% of these lakes have been assigned low outburst potential and the remainder of the lakes have an average level of outburst potential. We conclude that the distribution of lakes by elevation shows a significant influence on lake area and hazard potential. No significant differences, by contrast, exist between the distribution of lake area, outburst potential, and lake location with respect to glaciers by regions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Sea-level rise caused by climate change and its implications for society

    PubMed Central

    MIMURA, Nobuo

    2013-01-01

    Sea-level rise is a major effect of climate change. It has drawn international attention, because higher sea levels in the future would cause serious impacts in various parts of the world. There are questions associated with sea-level rise which science needs to answer. To what extent did climate change contribute to sea-level rise in the past? How much will global mean sea level increase in the future? How serious are the impacts of the anticipated sea-level rise likely to be, and can human society respond to them? This paper aims to answer these questions through a comprehensive review of the relevant literature. First, the present status of observed sea-level rise, analyses of its causes, and future projections are summarized. Then the impacts are examined along with other consequences of climate change, from both global and Japanese perspectives. Finally, responses to adverse impacts will be discussed in order to clarify the implications of the sea-level rise issue for human society. PMID:23883609

  20. Rising ground-water level in downtown Louisville, Kentucky, 1972-1977

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kernodle, J.M.; Whitesides, D.V.

    1977-01-01

    Ground-water levels in the alluvial aquifer in Louisville, Jefferson County, Kentucky, are rising at a rate which could cause wet basements and possible structural damage tc buildings in the downtown area by 1982. The predicted water level for 1982 is based on the nearly linear increase which has been observed from 1972 to 1977, during which period a rise of as much as 32 feet was recorded in water-level observation wells. Foremost among the possible causes of the rise is a decrease in withdrawal of ground water.

  1. Lake level fluctuations and catchment dynamics at Lake Ohrid (Macedonia, Albania) during MIS6 and MIS5

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Francke, Alexander; Wagner, Bernd; Just, Janna; Sadori, Laura; Masi, Alessia; Vogel, Hendrik; Lindhorst, Katja; Krastel, Sebastian; Dosseto, Anthony; Rothacker, Leo; Leicher, Niklas; Gromig, Raphael

    2016-04-01

    Lake Ohrid, presumably the oldest lake of Europe located at the border of Macedonia and Albania, is about 30 km long, 15 km wide, and up to 290 m deep. In 2013, an ICDP deep drilling campaign was carried out under the umbrella of the Scientific Collaboration on Past Speciation Conditions in Lake Ohrid (SCOPSCO) project. At the main drill site (DEEP) in the central part of Lake Ohrid, the uppermost 568 m from a total sediment fill of ca. 700 m were recovered. Initial data from core catcher material indicate that the sediment sequence covers more than 1.2 million years. An age model, which is based on 11 tephrostratigragphic tie points and on tuning of biogeochemical proxy data versus orbital parameters reveals that that the upper 247 m of the DEEP site sequence cover the time period between 637 ka (MIS16) and the present. Inhere, we present sedimentological, (bio-)geochemical, environmental magnetic, and pollen data for the time period between MIS6 (191 ka) and MIS5 (71 ka). The data imply that MIS6 was one of the most severe glacial periods, while MIS5 was likely one of the more pronounced interglacial during the past 637 kyrs. The repercussions of these high amplitude climatic and environmental variations during this period are recorded in the sedimentological archive of Lake Ohrid. Previous studies based on hydro-acoustic and sediment core data from the northeastern part of the lake basin have shown that the lake level of Lake Ohrid was likely 60 m lower during MIS6. The ˜60 m lower lake level at Lake Ohrid during MIS6 can at least partly be explained by the ongoing subsidence, which persists in the basin until today. However, in the DEEP site sediments, the MIS6/MIS5 transition occurs at ca. 50 m sediment depth. This implies that climate-induced lake level fluctuation at Lake Ohrid are less severe compared for example to Lake Van (Turkey), were a 260 m lower lake level has been reported for the Younger Dryas. The imprint of the environmental variations between

  2. Coastal vulnerability assessment of Olympic National Park to sea-level rise

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pendleton, Elizabeth A.; Hammar-Klose, Erika S.; Thieler, E. Robert; Williams, S. Jeffress

    2004-01-01

    A coastal vulnerability index (CVI) was used to map the relative vulnerability of the coast to future sea-level rise within Olympic National Park (OLYM), Washington. The CVI scores the following in terms of their physical contribution to sea-level rise-related coastal change: geomorphology, regional coastal slope, rate of relative sea-level rise, shoreline change rates, mean tidal range and mean wave height. The rankings for each variable were combined and an index value calculated for 1-minute grid cells covering the park. The CVI highlights those regions where the physical effects of sea-level rise might be the greatest. This approach combines the coastal system's susceptibility to change with its natural ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions, yielding a quantitative, although relative, measure of the park's natural vulnerability to the effects of sea-level rise. The CVI provides an objective technique for evaluation and long-term planning by scientists and park managers. The Olympic National Park coast consists of rocky headlands, pocket beaches, glacial-fluvial features, and sand and gravel beaches. The Olympic coastline that is most vulnerable to sea-level rise are beaches in gently sloping areas.

  3. PERSPECTIVE: The tripping points of sea level rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hecht, Alan D.

    2009-12-01

    When President Nixon created the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in 1970 he said the environment must be perceived as a single, interrelated system. We are nowhere close to achieving this vision. Jim Titus and his colleagues [1] highlight one example of where one set of regulations or permits may be in conflict with another and where regulations were crafted in the absence of understanding the cumulative impact of global warming. The issue here is how to deal with the impacts of climate change on sea level and the latter's impact on wetland polices, clean water regulations, and ecosystem services. The Titus paper could also be called `The tripping points of sea level rise'. Titus and his colleagues have looked at the impact of such sea level rise on the east coast of the United States. Adaptive responses include costly large- scale investment in shore protection (e.g. dikes, sand replenishment) and/or ecosystem migration (retreat), where coastal ecosystems move inland. Shore protection is limited by available funds, while ecosystem migrations are limited by available land use. The driving factor is the high probability of sea level rise due to climate change. Estimating sea level rise is difficult because of local land and coastal dynamics including rising or falling land areas. It is estimated that sea level could rise between 8 inches and 2 feet by the end of this century [2]. The extensive data analysis done by Titus et al of current land use is important because, as they observe, `property owners and land use agencies have generally not decided how they will respond to sea level rise, nor have they prepared maps delineating where shore protection and retreat are likely'. This is the first of two `tripping points', namely the need for adaptive planning for a pending environmental challenge that will create economic and environment conflict among land owners, federal and state agencies, and businesses. One way to address this gap in adaptive management

  4. δ18O and Carbonate Clumped Isotopes as Proxies of Lake Level Change: Mono Lake Modern Sediments Inform Pleistocene Interpretations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Westacott, S.; Ingalls, M.; Meixnerova, J.; Betts, M.; Lloyd, M. K.; Miller, L. G.; Sessions, A. L.; Trower, L.; Geobiology Course, A.

    2017-12-01

    In 1941 LA County began diverting water from the Mono Lake basin, causing lake level to fall dramatically until 1994 when diversion was substantially discontinued. High sedimentation rate (0.7 cm/yr) in combination with rapid, well-documented environmental change offers a unique opportunity to investigate the isotopic fingerprint of lake level change at a much finer scale than is typically accessible in the geologic record. δ18Ocarb can record lake level in a closed-basin system, but relies on knowing the relative contributions from carbonate precipitated from lake water and from authigenic carbonates, both of which are expected to exist in alkaline lake sediments. Here, we combine δ18Ocarb with clumped isotope thermometry (T(Δ47)) on a 70 cm sediment core to "unmix" the carbonate sources and reconstruct δ18Owater of Mono Lake over the past 116 years. Carbonate from the upper 10 cm of the sediment core yields a T(Δ47) of 26°C, reflecting surface water carbonate precipitation during late summer. Carbonates from sediment depths greater than 10cm yield a consistent T(Δ47) of 9.6°C, warmer than today's bottom waters, suggesting dissolution and reprecipitation of originally "warm" carbonate deposited from the water column alongside "cold" water of a different δ18Ow than Mono Lake surface water. A clumped isotope mixing model (Defliese & Lohmann, 2015) used to calculate the relative contributions of the two carbonate precipitates, corroborated by mirrored shifts in δ13Corg and δ13Ccarb down-core, suggests that about half of the carbonate found in the lower 60 cm of the sediment core is authigenic. As an example of how this strategy can be applied to older strata with looser constraints on primary composition, we also analysed the Pleistocene Wilson Creek Formation—lake sediments from Mono Lake's predecessor, Lake Russell. Although Pleistocene Lake Russell should have been cooler than modern Mono Lake, T(Δ47) values were similar to those of modern sediments

  5. Lake Erie Water Level Study. Appendix G. Recreational Beaches and Boating.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1981-07-01

    economic impact analysis). G-44 I There are two separate phases associated with the development of bene- fits generated at the various water levels in...moorings. The growth factors for the small boat harbor formula (MRI Technical Report No. 5, Economic Impacts of Lake Level Regulation) were developed by...Lakes-St. Lawrence River system. This evaluation was limited to Lakes Erie and Ontario and part of the St. Lawrence River where the

  6. Pleistocene lake level changes in Western Mongolia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Borodavko, P. S.

    2009-04-01

    Global cooling in the Early Pleistocene caused extensive continental glaciation in the northern hemisphere including the arid areas of Central Asia. The reduction of temperatures (particularly summer temperatures) reduced evaporation and strengthened the importance of precipitation. The simultaneity of "lakes periods" (pluvials) and stages of glaciation is established experience confirmed by investigations in the west of North America and Russia. In the Mongolian Great Lakes Depression new evidence for similar conditions is found. The Great Lakes Depression is one of the largest in Central Asia, and is divided into 2 main Lakes basins: Hyargas Lake Basin and Uvs Lake Basin. The basin is 600-650 km in length with a width of 200-250 km in the north and 60-100 km in the south. Total catchment area is about 186600 km2. The elevation of the basin floor is from 1700 m a.s.l. to 760 m a.s.l., decreasing to the north and south-east. The depression extends south-north and is bounded by mountains: Tannu-Ola to the north, Hangai to the east; Gobi Altai to the south and Mongolian Altay to the west. The maximum elevation of the mountains is 4000 m a.s.l. There are some mountains with an elevation between 2000 and 3000 m a.s.l in the lake catchment. These mountains are not glaciated today. The geological record [1] suggests the Great Lakes Depression already existed in the Mesozoic, but assumed its modern form only during the Pliocene-Quaternary when tectonic movements caused the uplift of the surrounding mountains. A phase of tectonic stability occurred during the Late Quaternary. The depression is filled by Quaternary fluvial, aeolian and lacustrine deposits (e.g. sand, pebbles). The Neogene deposits are represented by coloured clay, marl, sand and sandstone [1]. Hyargas Lake is the end base level of erosion of the lake group consisting of the Hara-Us Nur, Dorgon, Hara Nur and Airag lakes. Hyargas is one of the largest lakes in Mongolia, with a water surface of 1,407 km2. The

  7. Sea level hazards: Altimetric monitoring of tsunamis and sea level rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamlington, Benjamin Dillon

    Whether on the short timescale of an impending tsunami or the much longer timescale of climate change-driven sea level rise, the threat stemming from rising and inundating ocean waters is a great concern to coastal populations. Timely and accurate observations of potentially dangerous changes in sea level are vital in determining the precautionary steps that need to be taken in order to protect coastal communities. While instruments from the past have provided in situ measurements of sea level at specific locations across the globe, satellites can be used to provide improved spatial and temporal sampling of the ocean in addition to producing more accurate measurements. Since 1993, satellite altimetry has provided accurate measurements of sea surface height (SSH) with near-global coverage. Not only have these measurements led to the first definitive estimates of global mean sea level rise, satellite altimetry observations have also been used to detect tsunami waves in the open ocean where wave amplitudes are relatively small, a vital step in providing early warning to those potentially affected by the impending tsunami. The use of satellite altimetry to monitor two specific sea level hazards is examined in this thesis. The first section will focus on the detection of tsunamis in the open ocean for the purpose of providing early warning to coastal inhabitants. The second section will focus on estimating secular trends using satellite altimetry data with the hope of improving our understanding of future sea level change. Results presented here will show the utility of satellite altimetry for sea level monitoring and will lay the foundation for further advancement in the detection of the two sea level hazards considered.

  8. Comment [on “Sea level rise shown to drive coastal erosion”

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pilkey, Orrin H.; Young, Robert S.; Bush, David M.

    2000-01-01

    Leatherman et al. [2000] (Eos, Trans., AGU, February 8, 2000, p.55) affirm that global eustatic sea-level rise is driving coastal erosion. Furthermore, they argue that the long-term average rate of shoreline retreat is 150 times the rate of sea-level rise. This rate, they say, is more than a magnitude greater than would be expected from a simple response to sea-level rise through inundation of the shoreline. We agree that sea-level rise is the primary factor causing shoreline retreat in stable coastal areas.This is intuitive. We also believe, however, that the Leatherman et al. [2000] study has greatly underestimated the rate of coastal recession along most low slope shorelines. Slopes along the North Carolina continental shelf/coastal plain approach 10,000:1. To us, this suggests that we should expect rates of shoreline recession 10,000 times the rate of sea-level rise through simple inundation of the shoreline.

  9. Population dynamics of Hawaiian seabird colonies vulnerable to sea-level rise

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hatfield, Jeff S.; Reynolds, Michelle H.; Seavy, Nathaniel E.; Krause, Crystal M.

    2012-01-01

    Globally, seabirds are vulnerable to anthropogenic threats both at sea and on land. Seabirds typically nest colonially and show strong fidelity to natal colonies, and such colonies on low-lying islands may be threatened by sea-level rise. We used French Frigate Shoals, the largest atoll in the Hawaiian Archipelago, as a case study to explore the population dynamics of seabird colonies and the potential effects sea-level rise may have on these rookeries. We compiled historic observations, a 30-year time series of seabird population abundance, lidar-derived elevations, and aerial imagery of all the islands of French Frigate Shoals. To estimate the population dynamics of 8 species of breeding seabirds on Tern Island from 1980 to 2009, we used a Gompertz model with a Bayesian approach to infer population growth rates, density dependence, process variation, and observation error. All species increased in abundance, in a pattern that provided evidence of density dependence. Great Frigatebirds (Fregata minor), Masked Boobies (Sula dactylatra), Red-tailed Tropicbirds (Phaethon rubricauda), Spectacled Terns (Onychoprion lunatus), and White Terns (Gygis alba) are likely at carrying capacity. Density dependence may exacerbate the effects of sea-level rise on seabirds because populations near carrying capacity on an island will be more negatively affected than populations with room for growth. We projected 12% of French Frigate Shoals will be inundated if sea level rises 1 m and 28% if sea level rises 2 m. Spectacled Terns and shrub-nesting species are especially vulnerable to sea-level rise, but seawalls and habitat restoration may mitigate the effects of sea-level rise. Losses of seabird nesting habitat may be substantial in the Hawaiian Islands by 2100 if sea levels rise 2 m. Restoration of higher-elevation seabird colonies represent a more enduring conservation solution for Pacific seabirds.

  10. Sea-level rise caused by climate change and its implications for society.

    PubMed

    Mimura, Nobuo

    2013-01-01

    Sea-level rise is a major effect of climate change. It has drawn international attention, because higher sea levels in the future would cause serious impacts in various parts of the world. There are questions associated with sea-level rise which science needs to answer. To what extent did climate change contribute to sea-level rise in the past? How much will global mean sea level increase in the future? How serious are the impacts of the anticipated sea-level rise likely to be, and can human society respond to them? This paper aims to answer these questions through a comprehensive review of the relevant literature. First, the present status of observed sea-level rise, analyses of its causes, and future projections are summarized. Then the impacts are examined along with other consequences of climate change, from both global and Japanese perspectives. Finally, responses to adverse impacts will be discussed in order to clarify the implications of the sea-level rise issue for human society.(Communicated by Kiyoshi HORIKAWA, M.J.A.).

  11. Sea-level Rise Impacts on Oregon Estuaries: Biology and Hydrology

    EPA Science Inventory

    Estuaries are transitional ecosystems located at the margin of the land and ocean and as a result they are particularly sensitive to sea level rise and other climate drivers. In this presentation, we summarize the potential impacts of sea level rise on key estuarine habitats inc...

  12. Shallowly driven fluctuations in lava lake outgassing (gas pistoning), Kīlauea Volcano

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Patrick, Matthew R.; Orr, Tim; Sutton, A. J.; Lev, Einat; Thelen, Wes; Fee, David

    2016-01-01

    Lava lakes provide ideal venues for directly observing and understanding the nature of outgassing in basaltic magmatic systems. Kīlauea Volcano's summit lava lake has persisted for several years, during which seismic and infrasonic tremor amplitudes have exhibited episodic behavior associated with a rise and fall of the lava surface (;gas pistoning;). Since 2010, the outgassing regime of the lake has been tied to the presence or absence of gas pistoning. During normal behavior (no gas pistoning), the lake is in a ;spattering; regime, consisting of higher tremor amplitudes and gas emissions. In comparison, gas piston events are associated with an abrupt rise in lava level (up to 20 m), during which the lake enters a ;non-spattering; regime with greatly decreased tremor and gas emissions. We study this episodic behavior using long-term multidisciplinary monitoring of the lake, including seismicity, infrasound, gas emission and geochemistry, and time-lapse camera observations. The non-spattering regime (i.e. rise phase of a gas piston cycle) reflects gas bubbles accumulating near the top of the lake, perhaps as a shallow foam, while spattering regimes represent more efficient decoupling of gas from the lake. We speculate that the gas pistoning might be controlled by time-varying porosity and/or permeability in the upper portions of the lava lake, which may modulate foam formation and collapse. Competing models for gas pistoning, such as deeply sourced gas slugs, or dynamic pressure balances, are not consistent with our observations. Unlike other lava lakes which have cyclic behavior that is thought to be controlled by deeply sourced processes, external to the lake itself, we show an example of lava lake fluctuations driven by cycles of activity at shallow depth and close to the lake's surface. These observations highlight the complex and unsteady nature of outgassing from basaltic magmatic systems.

  13. Short Lived Climate Pollutants cause a Long Lived Effect on Sea-level Rise: Analyzing climate metrics for sea-level rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sterner, E.; Johansson, D. J.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change depends on the increase of several different atmospheric pollutants. While long term global warming will be determined mainly by carbon dioxide, warming in the next few decades will depend to a large extent on short lived climate pollutants (SLCP). Reducing emissions of SLCPs could contribute to lower the global mean surface temperature by 0.5 °C already by 2050 (Shindell et al. 2012). Furthermore, the warming effect of one of the most potent SLCPs, black carbon (BC), may have been underestimated in the past. Bond et al. (2013) presents a new best estimate of the total BC radiative forcing (RF) of 1.1 W/m2 (90 % uncertainty bounds of 0.17 to 2.1 W/m2) since the beginning of the industrial era. BC is however never emitted alone and cooling aerosols from the same sources offset a majority of this RF. In the wake of calls for mitigation of SLCPs it is important to study other aspects of the climate effect of SLCPs. One key impact of climate change is sea-level rise (SLR). In a recent study, the effect of SLCP mitigation scenarios on SLR is examined. Hu et al (2013) find a substantial effect on SLR from mitigating SLCPs sharply, reducing SLR by 22-42% by 2100. We choose a different approach focusing on emission pulses and analyse a metric based on sea level rise so as to further enlighten the SLR consequences of SLCPs. We want in particular to understand the time dynamics of SLR impacts caused by SLCPs compared to other greenhouse gases. The most commonly used physical based metrics are GWP and GTP. We propose and evaluate an additional metric: The global sea-level rise potential (GSP). The GSP is defined as the sea level rise after a time horizon caused by an emissions pulse of a forcer to the sea level rise after a time horizon caused by an emissions pulse of a CO2. GSP is evaluated and compared to GWP and GTP using a set of climate forcers chosen to cover the whole scale of atmospheric perturbation life times (BC, CH4, N2O, CO2 and SF6). The study

  14. Timescales for detecting a significant acceleration in sea level rise

    PubMed Central

    Haigh, Ivan D.; Wahl, Thomas; Rohling, Eelco J.; Price, René M.; Pattiaratchi, Charitha B.; Calafat, Francisco M.; Dangendorf, Sönke

    2014-01-01

    There is observational evidence that global sea level is rising and there is concern that the rate of rise will increase, significantly threatening coastal communities. However, considerable debate remains as to whether the rate of sea level rise is currently increasing and, if so, by how much. Here we provide new insights into sea level accelerations by applying the main methods that have been used previously to search for accelerations in historical data, to identify the timings (with uncertainties) at which accelerations might first be recognized in a statistically significant manner (if not apparent already) in sea level records that we have artificially extended to 2100. We find that the most important approach to earliest possible detection of a significant sea level acceleration lies in improved understanding (and subsequent removal) of interannual to multidecadal variability in sea level records. PMID:24728012

  15. Improving regional climate and hydrological forecasting following the record setting flooding across the Lake Ontario - St. Lawrence River system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gronewold, A.; Seglenieks, F.; Bruxer, J.; Fortin, V.; Noel, J.

    2017-12-01

    In the spring of 2017, water levels across Lake Ontario and the upper St. Lawrence River exceeded record high levels, leading to widespread flooding, damage to property, and controversy over regional dam operating protocols. Only a few years earlier, water levels on Lakes Superior, Michigan, and Huron (upstream of Lake Ontario) had dropped to record low levels leading to speculation that either anthropogenic controls or climate change were leading to chronic water loss from the Great Lakes. The contrast between low water level conditions across Earth's largest lake system from the late 1990s through 2013, and the rapid rise prior to the flooding in early 2017, underscores the challenges of quantifying and forecasting hydrologic impacts of rising regional air and water temperatures (and associated changes in lake evaporation) and persistent increases in long-term precipitation. Here, we assess the hydrologic conditions leading to the recent record flooding across the Lake Ontario - St. Lawrence River system, with a particular emphasis on understanding the extent to which those conditions were consistent with observed and anticipated changes in historical and future climate, and the extent to which those conditions could have been anticipated through improvements in seasonal climate outlooks and hydrological forecasts.

  16. Mercury levels, reproduction, and hematology in western grebes from three California Lakes, USA

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Elbert, R.A.; Anderson, D.W.

    1998-02-01

    Twenty-three healthy adult western and Clark`s grebes (Aechmorphorus occidentalis and Aechmorphorus clarkii) were collected at three study sites in California, USA, in 1992: Clear Lake, Lake County; Eagle Lake, Lassen County; and Tule Lake, Siskiyou County. Liver, kidney, breast muscle, and brain were analyzed for total mercury (Hg) concentration (ppm wet weight), and blood was analyzed for various blood parameters. Clear Lake birds had greater Hg concentrations in kidney, breast muscle, and brain than birds from the other two lakes whereas liver concentrations were not statistically different. Average concentrations for Clear Lake birds were 2.74 ppm for liver, 2.06 ppmmore » for kidney, 1.06 ppm for breast muscle, and 0.28 ppm for brain. The tissue levels of kidney, breast muscle, and brain at the other two study sites were one half the levels found at Clear Lake. These mean tissue levels were near, but below, those known to cause adverse effects. When data from all sites were merged, kidney, breast muscle, and brain concentrations are positively correlated to each other. Liver concentrations were not correlated to any other value. Brain Hg concentrations were also negatively correlated to blood potassium and blood phosphorus levels. Kidney Hg levels were positively correlated to percent blood heterophils and negatively correlated to percent eosinophils, suggesting that mercury levels might be affecting immune function. These biomarkers could not be related to any obvious ecological effects.« less

  17. Stable isotope ratios in swale sequences of Lake Superior as indicators of climate and lake level fluctuations during the Late Holocene

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sharma, Shruti; Mora, G.; Johnston, J.W.; Thompson, T.A.

    2005-01-01

    Beach ridges along the coastline of Lake Superior provide a long-term and detailed record of lake level fluctuations for the past 4000 cal BP. Although climate change has been invoked to explain these fluctuations, its role is still in debate. Here, we reconstruct water balance by employing peat samples collected from swale deposits present between beach ridge sequences at two locations along the coastline of Lake Superior. Carbon isotope ratios for Sphagnum remains from these peat deposits are used as a proxy for water balance because the presence or absence of water films on Sphagnum controls the overall isotope discrimination effects. Consequently, increased average water content in Sphagnum produces elevated ??13C values. Two maxima of Sphagnum ??13C values interpreted to reflect wetter conditions prevailed from 3400 to 2400 cal BP and from about 1900 to 1400 cal BP. There are two relatively short drier periods as inferred from low Sphagnum ??13C values: one is centered at about 2300 cal BP, and one begins at 1400 cal BP. A good covariance was found between Sphagnum ??13C values and reconstructed lake-levels for Lake Michigan in which elevated carbon isotope values correlate well with higher lake levels. Based on this covariance, we conclude that climate exerts a strong influence on lake levels in Lake Superior for the past 4000 cal BP. ?? 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Meteorological factors affecting the sudden decline in Lake Urmia's water level

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arkian, Foroozan; Nicholson, Sharon E.; Ziaie, Bahareh

    2018-01-01

    Lake Urmia, in northwest Iran, is the second most saline lake in the world. During the past two decades, the level of water has markedly decreased. In this paper, climate of the lake region is investigated by using data from four meteorological stations near the lake. The data include climatic parameters such as temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind speed, sunshine hours, number of rain days, and evaporation. Climate around the lake is examined by way of climate classification in the periods before and after the reduction in water level. Rainfall in the lake catchment is also evaluated using both gauge and satellite data. The results show a significant decreasing trend in mean annual precipitation and wind speed and an increasing trend in annual average temperature and sunshine hours at the four stations. Precipitation and wind speed have decreased by 37 mm and 2.7 m/s, respectively, and the mean annual temperature and sunshine hours have increased by 1.4 °C and 41.6 days, respectively, over these six decades. Only the climate of the Tabriz region is seen to have significantly changed, going from semiarid to arid. Gauge records and satellite data show a large-scale decreasing trend in rainfall since 1995. The correlation between rainfall and year-to-year changes in lake level is 0.69 over the period 1965 to 2010. The relationship is particularly strong from the early 1990s to 2005. This suggests that precipitation has played an important role in the documented decline of the lake.

  19. Hurricanes, sea level rise, and coastal change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sallenger,, Asbury H.; Wang, Ping; Rosati, Julie D.; Roberts, Tiffany M.

    2011-01-01

    Sixteen hurricanes have made landfall along the U.S. east and Gulf coasts over the past decade. For most of these storms, the USGS with our partners in NASA and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers have flown before and after lidar missions to detect changes in beaches and dunes. The most dramatic changes occurred when the coasts were completely submerged in an inundation regime. Where this occurred locally, a new breach was cut, like during Hurricane Isabel in North Carolina. Where surge inundated an entire island, the sand was stripped off leaving marshy outcrops behind, like during Hurricane Katrina in Louisiana. Sea level rise together with sand starvation and repeated hurricane impacts could increase the probabilities of inundation and degrade coasts more than sea level rise alone.

  20. A Bayesian network to predict coastal vulnerability to sea level rise

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gutierrez, B.T.; Plant, N.G.; Thieler, E.R.

    2011-01-01

    Sea level rise during the 21st century will have a wide range of effects on coastal environments, human development, and infrastructure in coastal areas. The broad range of complex factors influencing coastal systems contributes to large uncertainties in predicting long-term sea level rise impacts. Here we explore and demonstrate the capabilities of a Bayesian network (BN) to predict long-term shoreline change associated with sea level rise and make quantitative assessments of prediction uncertainty. A BN is used to define relationships between driving forces, geologic constraints, and coastal response for the U.S. Atlantic coast that include observations of local rates of relative sea level rise, wave height, tide range, geomorphic classification, coastal slope, and shoreline change rate. The BN is used to make probabilistic predictions of shoreline retreat in response to different future sea level rise rates. Results demonstrate that the probability of shoreline retreat increases with higher rates of sea level rise. Where more specific information is included, the probability of shoreline change increases in a number of cases, indicating more confident predictions. A hindcast evaluation of the BN indicates that the network correctly predicts 71% of the cases. Evaluation of the results using Brier skill and log likelihood ratio scores indicates that the network provides shoreline change predictions that are better than the prior probability. Shoreline change outcomes indicating stability (-1 1 m/yr) was not well predicted. We find that BNs can assimilate important factors contributing to coastal change in response to sea level rise and can make quantitative, probabilistic predictions that can be applied to coastal management decisions. Copyright ?? 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

  1. Probabilistic reanalysis of twentieth-century sea-level rise.

    PubMed

    Hay, Carling C; Morrow, Eric; Kopp, Robert E; Mitrovica, Jerry X

    2015-01-22

    Estimating and accounting for twentieth-century global mean sea level (GMSL) rise is critical to characterizing current and future human-induced sea-level change. Several previous analyses of tide gauge records--employing different methods to accommodate the spatial sparsity and temporal incompleteness of the data and to constrain the geometry of long-term sea-level change--have concluded that GMSL rose over the twentieth century at a mean rate of 1.6 to 1.9 millimetres per year. Efforts to account for this rate by summing estimates of individual contributions from glacier and ice-sheet mass loss, ocean thermal expansion, and changes in land water storage fall significantly short in the period before 1990. The failure to close the budget of GMSL during this period has led to suggestions that several contributions may have been systematically underestimated. However, the extent to which the limitations of tide gauge analyses have affected estimates of the GMSL rate of change is unclear. Here we revisit estimates of twentieth-century GMSL rise using probabilistic techniques and find a rate of GMSL rise from 1901 to 1990 of 1.2 ± 0.2 millimetres per year (90% confidence interval). Based on individual contributions tabulated in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this estimate closes the twentieth-century sea-level budget. Our analysis, which combines tide gauge records with physics-based and model-derived geometries of the various contributing signals, also indicates that GMSL rose at a rate of 3.0 ± 0.7 millimetres per year between 1993 and 2010, consistent with prior estimates from tide gauge records.The increase in rate relative to the 1901-90 trend is accordingly larger than previously thought; this revision may affect some projections of future sea-level rise.

  2. Population dynamics of Hawaiian seabird colonies vulnerable to sea-level rise.

    PubMed

    Hatfield, Jeff S; Reynolds, Michelle H; Seavy, Nathaniel E; Krause, Crystal M

    2012-08-01

    Globally, seabirds are vulnerable to anthropogenic threats both at sea and on land. Seabirds typically nest colonially and show strong fidelity to natal colonies, and such colonies on low-lying islands may be threatened by sea-level rise. We used French Frigate Shoals, the largest atoll in the Hawaiian Archipelago, as a case study to explore the population dynamics of seabird colonies and the potential effects sea-level rise may have on these rookeries. We compiled historic observations, a 30-year time series of seabird population abundance, lidar-derived elevations, and aerial imagery of all the islands of French Frigate Shoals. To estimate the population dynamics of 8 species of breeding seabirds on Tern Island from 1980 to 2009, we used a Gompertz model with a Bayesian approach to infer population growth rates, density dependence, process variation, and observation error. All species increased in abundance, in a pattern that provided evidence of density dependence. Great Frigatebirds (Fregata minor), Masked Boobies (Sula dactylatra), Red-tailed Tropicbirds (Phaethon rubricauda), Spectacled Terns (Onychoprion lunatus), and White Terns (Gygis alba) are likely at carrying capacity. Density dependence may exacerbate the effects of sea-level rise on seabirds because populations near carrying capacity on an island will be more negatively affected than populations with room for growth. We projected 12% of French Frigate Shoals will be inundated if sea level rises 1 m and 28% if sea level rises 2 m. Spectacled Terns and shrub-nesting species are especially vulnerable to sea-level rise, but seawalls and habitat restoration may mitigate the effects of sea-level rise. Losses of seabird nesting habitat may be substantial in the Hawaiian Islands by 2100 if sea levels rise 2 m. Restoration of higher-elevation seabird colonies represent a more enduring conservation solution for Pacific seabirds. Conservation Biology ©2012 Society for Conservation Biology. No claim to original

  3. Rising sea level may cause decline of fringing coral reefs

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Field, Michael E.; Ogston, Andrea S.; Storlazzi, Curt D.

    2011-01-01

    Coral reefs are major marine ecosystems and critical resources for marine diversity and fisheries. These ecosystems are widely recognized to be at risk from a number of stressors, and added to those in the past several decades is climate change due to anthropogenically driven increases in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. Most threatening to most coral reefs are elevated sea surface temperatures and increased ocean acidity [e.g., Kleypas et al., 1999; Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2007], but sea level rise, another consequence of climate change, is also likely to increase sedimentary processes that potentially interfere with photosynthesis, feeding, recruitment, and other key physiological processes (Figure 1). Anderson et al. [2010] argue compellingly that potential hazardous impacts to coastlines from 21st-century sea level rise are greatly underestimated, particularly because of the rapid rate of rise. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates that sea level will rise in the coming century (1990–2090) by 2.2–4.4 millimeters per year, when projected with little contribution from melting ice [Meehl et al., 2007]. New studies indicate that rapid melting of land ice could substantially increase the rate of sea level rise [Grinsted et al., 2009; Milne et al., 2009].

  4. 2. DETAIL VIEW SHOWING WOODEN CRIBBING WITH LOWERED LAKE LEVEL, ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    2. DETAIL VIEW SHOWING WOODEN CRIBBING WITH LOWERED LAKE LEVEL, EAST DAM, LOOKING NORTHEAST (View is middle of the perimeter showing in MT-88-A-1 above.) - Three Bears Lake & Dams, East Dam, North of Marias Pass, East Glacier Park, Glacier County, MT

  5. Response of the St. Joseph River to lake level changes during the last 12,000 years in the Lake Michigan basin

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kincare, K.A.

    2007-01-01

    The water level of the Lake Michigan basin is currently 177 m above sea level. Around 9,800 14C years B.P., the lake level in the Lake Michigan basin had dropped to its lowest level in prehistory, about 70 m above sea level. This low level (Lake Chippewa) had profound effects on the rivers flowing directly into the basin. Recent studies of the St. Joseph River indicate that the extreme low lake level rejuvenated the river, causing massive incision of up to 43 m in a valley no more than 1.6 km wide. The incision is seen 25 km upstream of the present shoreline. As lake level rose from the Chippewa low, the St. Joseph River lost competence and its estuary migrated back upstream. Floodplain and channel sediments partially refilled the recently excavated valley leaving a distinctly non-classical morphology of steep sides with a broad, flat bottom. The valley walls of the lower St. Joseph River are 12-18 m tall and borings reveal up to 30 m of infill sediment below the modern floodplain. About 3 ?? 108 m3 of sediment was removed from the St. Joseph River valley during the Chippewa phase lowstand, a massive volume, some of which likely resides in a lowstand delta approximately 30 km off-shore in Lake Michigan. The active floodplain below Niles, Michigan, is inset into an upper terrace and delta graded to the Calumet level (189 m) of Lake Chicago. In the lower portion of the terrace stratigraphy a 1.5-2.0 m thick section of clast-supported gravel marks the entry of the main St. Joseph River drainage above South Bend, Indiana, into the Lake Michigan basin. This gravel layer represents the consolidation of drainage that probably occurred during final melting out of ice-marginal kettle chains allowing stream piracy to proceed between Niles and South Bend. It is unlikely that the St. Joseph River is palimpsest upon a bedrock valley. The landform it cuts across is a glaciofluvial-deltaic feature rather than a classic unsorted moraine that would drape over pre-glacial topography

  6. Modeling level change in Lake Urmia using hybrid artificial intelligence approaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Esbati, M.; Ahmadieh Khanesar, M.; Shahzadi, Ali

    2017-06-01

    The investigation of water level fluctuations in lakes for protecting them regarding the importance of these water complexes in national and regional scales has found a special place among countries in recent years. The importance of the prediction of water level balance in Lake Urmia is necessary due to several-meter fluctuations in the last decade which help the prevention from possible future losses. For this purpose, in this paper, the performance of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) for predicting the lake water level balance has been studied. In addition, for the training of the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system, particle swarm optimization (PSO) and hybrid backpropagation-recursive least square method algorithm have been used. Moreover, a hybrid method based on particle swarm optimization and recursive least square (PSO-RLS) training algorithm for the training of ANFIS structure is introduced. In order to have a more fare comparison, hybrid particle swarm optimization and gradient descent are also applied. The models have been trained, tested, and validated based on lake level data between 1991 and 2014. For performance evaluation, a comparison is made between these methods. Numerical results obtained show that the proposed methods with a reasonable error have a good performance in water level balance prediction. It is also clear that with continuing the current trend, Lake Urmia will experience more drop in the water level balance in the upcoming years.

  7. Modeling the Effects of Sea-Level Rise on Groundwater Levels in Coastal New Hampshire

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jacobs, J. M.; Knott, J. F.; Daniel, J.; Kirshen, P. H.

    2017-12-01

    Coastal communities with high population density and low topography are vulnerable from sea-level rise (SLR) caused by climate change. Groundwater in coastal communities will rise with sea level impacting water quality, the structural integrity of infrastructure, and natural ecosystem health. SLR-induced groundwater rise has been studied in areas of high aquifer transmissivity and in low-lying areas immediately along the coast. In this regional study, we investigate SLR-induced groundwater rise in a coastal area characterized by shallow unconsolidated deposits overlying fractured bedrock, typical of the glaciated northeast United States. MODFLOW, a numerical groundwater-flow model, is used with groundwater observations, lidar topography, surface-water hydrology, and groundwater withdrawals to investigate SLR-induced changes in groundwater levels and vadose-zone thickness in New Hampshire's Seacoast. The SLR groundwater signal is detected up to 5 km from the coast, more than 3 times farther inland than projected surface-water flooding associated with SLR. Relative groundwater rise ranges from 38 to 98% of SLR within 1 km of the shoreline and drops below 4% between 4 and 5 km from the coast. The largest magnitude of SLR-induced groundwater rise occurs in the marine and estuarine deposits and land areas with tidal water bodies on three sides. In contrast, groundwater rise is dampened near streams. Groundwater inundation caused by 2 m of SLR is projected to contribute 48% of the total land inundation area in the City of Portsmouth with consequences for built and natural resources. Freshwater wetlands are projected to expand 3% by year 2030 increasing to 25% by year 2100 coupled with water-depth increases. These results imply that underground infrastructure and natural resources in coastal communities will be impacted by rising groundwater much farther inland than previously thought when considering only surface-water flooding from SLR.

  8. Doubling of coastal flooding frequency within decades due to sea-level rise

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Vitousek, Sean; Barnard, Patrick L.; Fletcher, Charles H.; Frazer, Neil; Erikson, Li; Storlazzi, Curt D.

    2017-01-01

    Global climate change drives sea-level rise, increasing the frequency of coastal flooding. In most coastal regions, the amount of sea-level rise occurring over years to decades is significantly smaller than normal ocean-level fluctuations caused by tides, waves, and storm surge. However, even gradual sea-level rise can rapidly increase the frequency and severity of coastal flooding. So far, global-scale estimates of increased coastal flooding due to sea-level rise have not considered elevated water levels due to waves, and thus underestimate the potential impact. Here we use extreme value theory to combine sea-level projections with wave, tide, and storm surge models to estimate increases in coastal flooding on a continuous global scale. We find that regions with limited water-level variability, i.e., short-tailed flood-level distributions, located mainly in the Tropics, will experience the largest increases in flooding frequency. The 10 to 20 cm of sea-level rise expected no later than 2050 will more than double the frequency of extreme water-level events in the Tropics, impairing the developing economies of equatorial coastal cities and the habitability of low-lying Pacific island nations.

  9. Processes contributing to resilience of coastal wetlands to sea-level rise

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stagg, Camille L.; Krauss, Ken W.; Cahoon, Donald R.; Cormier, Nicole; Conner, William H.; Swarzenski, Christopher M.

    2016-01-01

    The objectives of this study were to identify processes that contribute to resilience of coastal wetlands subject to rising sea levels and to determine whether the relative contribution of these processes varies across different wetland community types. We assessed the resilience of wetlands to sea-level rise along a transitional gradient from tidal freshwater forested wetland (TFFW) to marsh by measuring processes controlling wetland elevation. We found that, over 5 years of measurement, TFFWs were resilient, although some marginally, and oligohaline marshes exhibited robust resilience to sea-level rise. We identified fundamental differences in how resilience is maintained across wetland community types, which have important implications for management activities that aim to restore or conserve resilient systems. We showed that the relative importance of surface and subsurface processes in controlling wetland surface elevation change differed between TFFWs and oligohaline marshes. The marshes had significantly higher rates of surface accretion than the TFFWs, and in the marshes, surface accretion was the primary contributor to elevation change. In contrast, elevation change in TFFWs was more heavily influenced by subsurface processes, such as root zone expansion or compaction, which played an important role in determining resilience of TFFWs to rising sea level. When root zone contributions were removed statistically from comparisons between relative sea-level rise and surface elevation change, sites that previously had elevation rate deficits showed a surplus. Therefore, assessments of wetland resilience that do not include subsurface processes will likely misjudge vulnerability to sea-level rise.

  10. Spatial and temporal variability of dissolved sulfate in Devils Lake, North Dakota, 1998

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sether, Bradley A.; Vecchia, Aldo V.; Berkas, Wayne R.

    1998-01-01

    The Devils Lake Basin is a 3,810-squaremile closed subbasin of the Red River of the North Basin (fig. 1). About 3,320 square miles of the total 3,810 square miles is tributary to Devils Lake. The Devils Lake Basin contributes to the Red River of the North Basin when the level of Devils Lake is greater than 1,459 feet above sea level.Lake levels of Devils Lake were recorded sporadically from 1867 to 1890. In 1901, the U.S. Geological Survey established a gaging station on Devils Lake. From 1867 through 1998, the lake level has fluctuated between a minimum of 1,400.9 feet above sea level in 1940 and a maximum of 1,444.7 feet above sea level in 1998 (fig. 2). The maximum, which occurred on July 7, 1998, was 22.1 feet higher than the level recorded in February 1993.The rapid rise in the lake level of Devils Lake since 1993 is in response to abovenormal precipitation and below-normal evaporation from the summer of 1993 through 1998. Because of the rising lake level, more than 50,000 acres of land and many roads around the lake have been flooded. In addition, the water quality of Devils Lake changed substantially in 1993 because of the summer flooding (Williams-Sether and others, 1996). In response to the flooding, the Devils Lake Basin Interagency Task Force, comprised of many State and Federal agencies, was formed in 1995 to find and propose intermediate (5 years or less) flood mitigation options. Current and accurate hydrologic and water-quality information is needed to assess the effectiveness of the flood mitigation options, which include managing and storing water in the Devils Lake Basin, continuing infrastructure protection, and providing an outlet to the Sheyenne River (Wiche, 1998). As part of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Devils Lake emergency outlet feasibility study, the U.S. Geological Survey is modeling lake levels and sulfate concentrations in Devils Lake to simulate operation of an emergency outlet. Accurate simulation of sulfate concentrations in

  11. Is the water level during dry season in Poyang Lake really lower than before?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Xiaolong; Yu, Meixiu; Shi, Yong; Luan, Zhenyu; Fu, Dafang

    2017-04-01

    The Poyang Lake, the largest freshwater lake in China, has attracted world widely attentions in recent years due to it being dammed or not at the Lake's outlet. It was reported that the Poyang Lake water levels have been declining significantly in dry seasons, which resulted in severe water supply, irrigation and ecological flow requirement problems. The purpose of the study was to answer the question that the water level of the Poyang Lake during dry season is really lower than before or not. Based on topographical data, and long-term hydrological and meteorological data from 1950 to 2016, the relationship between the Poyang Lake and the Yangtze River before and after the completion of the Three Gorges Dam, the relationship between the Poyang Lake and its Five major tributaries (Ganjiang River, Fuhe River, Xinjiang River, Raohe River and Xiushui River), and as well as sand mining contributions to the water level in dry seasons of the Poyang Lake were investigated respectively.

  12. Analysis of global impacts of sea-level rise: a case study of flooding

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nicholls, Robert J.

    Analysis of the response to climate change and sea-level rise requires a link from climate change science to the resulting impacts and their policy implications. This paper explores the impacts of sea-level rise, particularly increased coastal flooding due to storm surges. In particular, it asks the simple question “how much will projected global sea-level rise exacerbate coastal flood problems, if ignored?” This is an important question to the intergovernmental process considering climate change. Further many countries presently ignore sea-level rise in long-term coastal planning, even though global sea levels are presently slowly rising. Using the model of Nicholls et al. [Global Environmental Change 9 (1999) S69], the analysis considers the flood impacts of sea-level rise on an “IS92a world” based on a consistent set of scenarios of global-mean sea-level rise, subsidence (where appropriate), coastal population change (usually increase), and flood defence standards (derived from GDP/capita). Two of the protection scenarios consider the possible upgrade of flood defences, but no allowance for global-mean sea-level rise is allowed to ensure consistency with the question being investigated. This model has been validated against national- and regional-scale assessments indicating that the relative results are reasonable, and the absolute results are of the right order of magnitude. The model estimates that 10 million people experienced flooding annually in 1990. It also predicts that the incidence of flooding will change without sea-level rise due to changes to the other three factors. Taking the full range of scenarios considered by 2100 the number of people flooded could be from 0.4 to 39 million/year. All the sea-level rise scenarios would cause an increase in flooding during the 21st century if measures to adapt to sea-level rise are not taken. However, there are significant uncertainties and the number of people who are estimated to experience flooding

  13. The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Florida's Everglades

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Senarath, S. U.

    2005-12-01

    Global warming and the resulting melting of polar ice sheets could increase global sea levels significantly. Some studies have predicted mean sea level increases in the order of six inches to one foot in the next 25 to 50 years. This could have severe irreversible impacts on low-lying areas of Florida's Everglades. The key objective of this study is to evaluate the effects of a one foot sea level rise on Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow (CSSS) nesting areas within the Everglades National Park (ENP). A regional-scale hydrologic model is used to assess the sensitivities of this sea-level rise scenario. Florida's Everglades supports a unique ecosystem. At present, about 50 percent of this unique ecosystem has been lost due to urbanization and farming. Today, the water flow in the remnant Everglades is also regulated to meet a variety of competing environmental, water-supply and flood-control needs. A 30-year, eight billion dollar (1999 estimate) project has been initiated to improve Everglades' water flows. The expected benefits of this restoration project will be short-lived if the predicted sea level rise causes severe impacts on the environmentally sensitive areas of the Everglades. Florida's Everglades is home to many threatened and endangered species of wildlife. The Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow population in the ENP is one such species that is currently listed as endangered. Since these birds build their nests close to the ground surface (the base of the nest is approximately six inches from the ground surface), they are directly affected by any sea level induced ponding depth, frequency or duration change. Therefore, the CSSS population serves as a good indicator species for evaluating the negative impacts of sea level rise on the Everglades' ecosystem. The impact of sea level rise on the CSSS habitat is evaluated using the Regional Simulation Model (RSM) developed by the South Florida Water Management District. The RSM is an implicit, finite-volume, continuous

  14. Water level monitoring using radar remote sensing data: Application to Lake Kivu, central Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Munyaneza, Omar; Wali, Umaru G.; Uhlenbrook, Stefan; Maskey, Shreedhar; Mlotha, McArd J.

    Satellite radar altimetry measures the time required for a pulse to travel from the satellite antenna to the earth’s surface and back to the satellite receiver. Altimetry on inland lakes generally shows some deviation from in situ level measurements. The deviation is attributed to the geographically varying corrections applied to account for atmospheric effects on radar waves. This study was focused on verification of altimetry data for Lake Kivu (2400 km 2), a large inland lake between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and estimating the lake water levels using bathymetric data combined with satellite images. Altimetry data obtained from ENVISAT and ERS-2 satellite missions were compared with water level data from gauging stations for Lake Kivu. Gauge data for Lake Kivu were collected from the stations ELECTROGAZ and Rusizi. ENVISAT and ERS-2 data sets for Lake Kivu are in good agreement with gauge data having R2 of 0.86 and 0.77, respectively. A combination of the two data sets improved the coefficient of determination to 95% due to the improved temporal resolution of the data sets. The calculated standard deviation for Lake Kivu water levels was 0.642 m and 0.701 m, for ENVISAT and ERS-2 measurements, respectively. The elevation-surface area characteristics derived from bathymetric data in combination with satellite images were used to estimate the lake level gauge. Consequently, the water level of Lake Kivu could be estimated with an RMSE of 0.294 m and an accuracy of ±0.58 m. In situations where gauges become malfunctioning or inaccessible due to damage or extreme meteorological events, the method can be used to ensure data continuity.

  15. Acceleration of Sea Level Rise Over Malaysian Seas from Satellite Altimeter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamid, A. I. A.; Din, A. H. M.; Khalid, N. F.; Omar, K. M.

    2016-09-01

    Sea level rise becomes our concern nowadays as a result of variously contribution of climate change that cause by the anthropogenic effects. Global sea levels have been rising through the past century and are projected to rise at an accelerated rate throughout the 21st century. Due to this change, sea level is now constantly rising and eventually will threaten many low-lying and unprotected coastal areas in many ways. This paper is proposing a significant effort to quantify the sea level trend over Malaysian seas based on the combination of multi-mission satellite altimeters over a period of 23 years. Eight altimeter missions are used to derive the absolute sea level from Radar Altimeter Database System (RADS). Data verification is then carried out to verify the satellite derived sea level rise data with tidal data. Eight selected tide gauge stations from Peninsular Malaysia, Sabah and Sarawak are chosen for this data verification. The pattern and correlation of both measurements of sea level anomalies (SLA) are evaluated over the same period in each area in order to produce comparable results. Afterwards, the time series of the sea level trend is quantified using robust fit regression analysis. The findings clearly show that the absolute sea level trend is rising and varying over the Malaysian seas with the rate of sea level varies and gradually increase from east to west of Malaysia. Highly confident and correlation level of the 23 years measurement data with an astonishing root mean square difference permits the absolute sea level trend of the Malaysian seas has raised at the rate 3.14 ± 0.12 mm yr-1 to 4.81 ± 0.15 mm yr-1 for the chosen sub-areas, with an overall mean of 4.09 ± 0.12 mm yr-1. This study hopefully offers a beneficial sea level information to be applied in a wide range of related environmental and climatology issue such as flood and global warming.

  16. Does water level affect benthic macro-invertebrates of a marginal lake in a tropical river-reservoir transition zone?

    PubMed

    Zerlin, R A; Henry, R

    2014-05-01

    Benthic macro-invertebrates are important components of freshwater ecosystems which are involved in ecological processes such as energy transfer between detritus and consumers and organic matter recycling. The aim of this work was to investigate the variation in organism richness, diversity and density of benthic fauna during the annual cycle in Camargo Lake, a lake marginal to Paranapanema River, southeast Brazil. The correlation of environmental factors with community attributes of the macro-benthic fauna was assessed. Since Camargo Lake is connected to the river, we tested the hypothesis that water level variation is the main regulating factor of environmental variables and of the composition and abundance of benthic macro-invertebrates. The results indicated that lake depth varied with rainfall, being the highest at the end of the rising water period and the lowest at the beginning of this period. The sediment granulometry was more heterogeneous at the bottom of the lake by the end of the high water period. The benthic macro-invertebrate fauna was composed by 15 taxa. The Diptera order was represented by seven taxa and had greater richness in relation to other taxa. This group was responsible for 60% of the total abundance of organisms, followed by Ephemeroptera (22%) and Anellida (16%). Significant differences were observed over time in total richness and, in density of Narapa bonettoi, Chaoborus, Ablabesmyia gr. annulata, Chironomus gigas, Larsia fittkau, and Procladius sp. 2. Total taxa richness correlated negatively with water pH, transparency, conductivity, and bottom water oxygen. Higher positive correlations were found between the densities of some taxa and bottom water oxygen, conductivity and very fine sand, silt + clay of sediment, while negative correlations were recorded with organic matter, and fine, medium and coarse sand, bottom water temperature, mean temperature and rainfall. The significant temporal difference in water level was associated

  17. Ice2sea - the future glacial contribution to sea-level rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vaughan, D. G.; Ice2sea Consortium

    2009-04-01

    The melting of continental ice (glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets) is a substantial source of current sea-level rise, and one that is accelerating more rapidly than was predicted even a few years ago. Indeed, the most recent report from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change highlighted that the uncertainty in projections of future sea-level rise is dominated by uncertainty concerning continental ice, and that understanding of the key processes that will lead to loss of continental ice must be improved before reliable projections of sea-level rise can be produced. Such projections are urgently required for effective sea-defence management and coastal adaptation planning. Ice2sea is a consortium of European institutes and international partners seeking European funding to support an integrated scientific programme to improve understanding concerning the future glacial contribution to sea-level rise. This includes improving understanding of the processes that control, past, current and future sea-level rise, and generation of improved estimates of the contribution of glacial components to sea-level rise over the next 200 years. The programme will include targeted studies of key processes in mountain glacier systems and ice caps (e.g. Svalbard), and in ice sheets in both polar regions (Greenland and Antarctica) to improve understanding of how these systems will respond to future climate change. It will include fieldwork and remote sensing studies, and develop a suite of new, cross-validated glacier and ice-sheet model. Ice2sea will deliver these results in forms accessible to scientists, policy-makers and the general public, which will include clear presentations of the sources of uncertainty. Our aim is both, to provide improved projections of the glacial contribution to sea-level rise, and to leave a legacy of improved tools and techniques that will form the basis of ongoing refinements in sea-level projection. Ice2sea will provide exciting opportunities for many

  18. How mangrove forests adjust to rising sea level

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Krauss, Ken W.; McKee, Karen L.; Lovelock, Catherine E.; Cahoon, Donald R.; Saintilan, Neil; Reef, Ruth; Chen, Luzhen

    2014-01-01

    Mangroves are among the most well described and widely studied wetland communities in the world. The greatest threats to mangrove persistence are deforestation and other anthropogenic disturbances that can compromise habitat stability and resilience to sea-level rise. To persist, mangrove ecosystems must adjust to rising sea level by building vertically or become submerged. Mangroves may directly or indirectly influence soil accretion processes through the production and accumulation of organic matter, as well as the trapping and retention of mineral sediment. In this review, we provide a general overview of research on mangrove elevation dynamics, emphasizing the role of the vegetation in maintaining soil surface elevations (i.e. position of the soil surface in the vertical plane). We summarize the primary ways in which mangroves may influence sediment accretion and vertical land development, for example, through root contributions to soil volume and upward expansion of the soil surface. We also examine how hydrological, geomorphological and climatic processes may interact with plant processes to influence mangrove capacity to keep pace with rising sea level. We draw on a variety of studies to describe the important, and often under-appreciated, role that plants play in shaping the trajectory of an ecosystem undergoing change.

  19. The vulnerability of Indo-Pacific mangrove forests to sea-level rise

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lovelock, Catherine E.; Cahoon, Donald R.; Friess, Daniel A.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.; Krauss, Ken W.; Reef, Ruth; Rogers, Kerrylee; Saunders, Megan L.; Sidik, Frida; Swales, Andrew; Saintilan, Neil; Thuyen, Le Xuan; Triet, Tran

    2015-01-01

    Sea-level rise can threaten the long-term sustainability of coastal communities and valuable ecosystems such as coral reefs, salt marshes and mangroves. Mangrove forests have the capacity to keep pace with sea-level rise and to avoid inundation through vertical accretion of sediments, which allows them to maintain wetland soil elevations suitable for plant growth. The Indo-Pacific region holds most of the world’s mangrove forests, but sediment delivery in this region is declining, owing to anthropogenic activities such as damming of rivers. This decline is of particular concern because the Indo-Pacific region is expected to have variable, but high, rates of future sea-level rise. Here we analyse recent trends in mangrove surface elevation changes across the Indo-Pacific region using data from a network of surface elevation table instruments. We find that sediment availability can enable mangrove forests to maintain rates of soil-surface elevation gain that match or exceed that of sea-level rise, but for 69 per cent of our study sites the current rate of sea-level rise exceeded the soil surface elevation gain. We also present a model based on our field data, which suggests that mangrove forests at sites with low tidal range and low sediment supply could be submerged as early as 2070.

  20. The vulnerability of Indo-Pacific mangrove forests to sea-level rise.

    PubMed

    Lovelock, Catherine E; Cahoon, Donald R; Friess, Daniel A; Guntenspergen, Glenn R; Krauss, Ken W; Reef, Ruth; Rogers, Kerrylee; Saunders, Megan L; Sidik, Frida; Swales, Andrew; Saintilan, Neil; Thuyen, Le Xuan; Triet, Tran

    2015-10-22

    Sea-level rise can threaten the long-term sustainability of coastal communities and valuable ecosystems such as coral reefs, salt marshes and mangroves. Mangrove forests have the capacity to keep pace with sea-level rise and to avoid inundation through vertical accretion of sediments, which allows them to maintain wetland soil elevations suitable for plant growth. The Indo-Pacific region holds most of the world's mangrove forests, but sediment delivery in this region is declining, owing to anthropogenic activities such as damming of rivers. This decline is of particular concern because the Indo-Pacific region is expected to have variable, but high, rates of future sea-level rise. Here we analyse recent trends in mangrove surface elevation changes across the Indo-Pacific region using data from a network of surface elevation table instruments. We find that sediment availability can enable mangrove forests to maintain rates of soil-surface elevation gain that match or exceed that of sea-level rise, but for 69 per cent of our study sites the current rate of sea-level rise exceeded the soil surface elevation gain. We also present a model based on our field data, which suggests that mangrove forests at sites with low tidal range and low sediment supply could be submerged as early as 2070.

  1. Lake-level stratigraphy and geochronology revisited at Lago (Lake) Cardiel, Argentina, and changes in the Southern Hemispheric Westerlies over the last 25 ka

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quade, J.; Kaplan, M. R.

    2017-12-01

    Paleoshorelines around Lago (Lake) Cardiel in southern Argentina (S48.9°, W71.3°; ∼275 m) record substantial changes in lake area over the past 25 ka. Our results combined with previous research show that during the last glacial maximum (or LGM, 23-21 ka), the lake stood at near modern levels, but had nearly dried up by ∼13 ka. Between 11.3 and 10.1 ka the lake reached its highest point (+54-58 m) and greatest extent in at least the last 40 ka. Lake levels dropped thereafter and experienced two lower-lake periods: 8.5-7.5 ka and 5-3.3 ka; and two higher-lake periods: 7.4-6 and ∼5.2 ka. In the last 3.5 ka, the lake has remained generally near or slightly above its present level. The depth and surface area of Lago Cardiel are controlled mainly by precipitation onto the lake and surrounding catchment, air and water temperature, and wind-speed related to local strength of the Southern Hemispheric Westerlies (SHW). Our lake-level reconstruction combined with evidence from other studies suggest that on average the core of the SHW was located well to the north (<45°S) of the Cardiel basin during the deep lake phase associated with the LGM, and was well to the south (>55°S?) during the hydrologic maximum of Cardiel in the early Holocene. The lower phases of the lake at 20.0-11.5, 8.5-7.5, and 5.0-3.3 ka generally correspond to cold conditions in other records, when we infer that the SHW were strongly focused around the latitudes of Cardiel at 49°S.

  2. Use of a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model to evaluate extreme flooding and transport of dissolved solids through Devils Lake and Stump Lake, North Dakota, 2006

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nustad, Rochelle A.; Wood, Tamara M.; Bales, Jerad D.

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the North Dakota Department of Transportation, North Dakota State Water Commission, and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, developed a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model of Devils Lake and Stump Lake, North Dakota to be used as a hydrologic tool for evaluating the effects of different inflow scenarios on water levels, circulation, and the transport of dissolved solids through the lake. The numerical model, UnTRIM, and data primarily collected during 2006 were used to develop and calibrate the Devils Lake model. Performance of the Devils Lake model was tested using 2009 data. The Devils Lake model was applied to evaluate the effects of an extreme flooding event on water levels and hydrological modifications within the lake on the transport of dissolved solids through Devils Lake and Stump Lake. For the 2006 calibration, simulated water levels in Devils Lake compared well with measured water levels. The maximum simulated water level at site 1 was within 0.13 feet of the maximum measured water level in the calibration, which gives reasonable confidence that the Devils Lake model is able to accurately simulate the maximum water level at site 1 for the extreme flooding scenario. The timing and direction of winddriven fluctuations in water levels on a short time scale (a few hours to a day) were reproduced well by the Devils Lake model. For this application, the Devils Lake model was not optimized for simulation of the current speed through bridge openings. In future applications, simulation of current speed through bridge openings could be improved by more accurate definition of the bathymetry and geometry of select areas in the model grid. As a test of the performance of the Devils Lake model, a simulation of 2009 conditions from April 1 through September 30, 2009 was performed. Overall, errors in inflow estimates affected the results for the 2009 simulation; however, for the rising phase of the lakes, the Devils Lake model

  3. Dynamics of the Mount Nyiragongo lava lake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burgi, P.-Y.; Darrah, T. H.; Tedesco, D.; Eymold, W. K.

    2014-05-01

    The permanent and presently rising lava lake at Mount Nyiragongo constitutes a major potential geological hazard to the inhabitants of the Virunga volcanic region in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Rwanda. Based on two field campaigns in June 2010 and 2011, we estimate the lava lake level from the southeastern crater rim (~400 m diameter) and lava lake area (~46,550 m2), which constrains, respectively, the lava lake volume (~9 × 106 m3) and volume flow rate needed to keep the magma in a molten state (0.6 to 3.5 m3 s-1). A bidirectional magma flow model, which includes the characterization of the conduit diameter and funnel-shaped lava lake geometry, is developed to constrain the amount of magma intruded/emplaced within the magmatic chamber and rift-related structures that extend between Mount Nyiragongo's volcanic center and the city of Goma, DRC, since Mount Nyiragongo's last eruption (17 January 2002). Besides matching field data of the lava lake level covering the period 1977 to 2002, numerical solutions of the model indicate that by 2022, 20 years after the January 2002 eruption, between 300 and 1700 × 106 m3 (0.3 to 1.7 km3) of magma could have intruded/emplaced underneath the edifice, and the lava lake volume could exceed 15 × 106 m3.

  4. Under-estimated wave contribution to coastal sea-level rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Melet, Angélique; Meyssignac, Benoit; Almar, Rafael; Le Cozannet, Gonéri

    2018-03-01

    Coastal communities are threatened by sea-level changes operating at various spatial scales; global to regional variations are associated with glacier and ice sheet loss and ocean thermal expansion, while smaller coastal-scale variations are also related to atmospheric surges, tides and waves. Here, using 23 years (1993-2015) of global coastal sea-level observations, we examine the contribution of these latter processes to long-term sea-level rise, which, to date, have been relatively less explored. It is found that wave contributions can strongly dampen or enhance the effects of thermal expansion and land ice loss on coastal water-level changes at interannual-to-multidecadal timescales. Along the US West Coast, for example, negative wave-induced trends dominate, leading to negative net water-level trends. Accurate estimates of past, present and future coastal sea-level rise therefore need to consider low-frequency contributions of wave set-up and swash.

  5. Preparing Norfolk Area Students for America's Second Highest Sea Level Rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dunbar, R. R.

    2017-12-01

    The nonprofit Elizabeth River Project located in Hampton Roads, Virginia was awarded a 3-year national NOAA Environmental Literacy award 2016-2019 to teach 21,000 K-12 youth how to help restore one of the most polluted rivers on the Chesapeake Bay and to help create a resilient community that is facing impacts from the rising seas and changing climate. Through a community collaboration, partners are also creating perhaps the nation's first Youth Resilience Strategy with a vision, goals, best practices and resources on engaging youth to help create resilient cities facing environmental and economic changes. During Year 1, 7,000 elementary students held field investigations aboard the floating classroom Learning Barge and at Paradise Creek Nature Park and helped restore wetland restoration sites. Students performed inquiry based investigations, learned stewardship actions to help create resilience and showed a 40% increase in knowledge. Year 1 best practices in teaching resilience include youth: getting out of the classroom, discovering how rain water travels, performing bioblitzes and water quality testing, engaging in hands-on GreenSTEM activities, using investigation tools, creating innovative solutions to retain and reuse rain water, creating art and voicing their opinions on creating a resilient community.Lessons learned include developing engaging inquiry questions based on creating a resilient community. These included: "What are the impact of rising tides?", "How can sea level rise affect river animals?", "How can we be safe and prepare for extreme weather and flooding as the sea level rises?", "How has the way people worked with the Elizabeth River changed?", "How could sea level rise affect the Elizabeth River's water quality?", "How hot might the air temperature get by 2050 and what can we do to keep it cooler?", "What does this park show us about sea level rise and other ways our climate is changing?", "How do trees help make our park and community

  6. Flooded! An Investigation of Sea-Level Rise in a Changing Climate

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gillette, Brandon; Hamilton, Cheri

    2011-01-01

    Explore how melting ice sheets affect global sea levels. Sea-level rise (SLR) is a rise in the water level of the Earth's oceans. There are two major kinds of ice in the polar regions: sea ice and land ice. Land ice contributes to SLR and sea ice does not. This article explores the characteristics of sea ice and land ice and provides some hands-on…

  7. Phase I for the Use of TOPEX-Poseidon and Jason-1 Radar Altimetry to Monitor Coastal Wetland Inundation and Sea Level Rise in Coastal Louisiana

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brozen, Madeline; Batina, Matthew; Parker, Stephen; Brooks, Christopher

    2010-01-01

    The objective of the first phase of this project was to determine the feasibility of applying satellite altimetry data to monitor sea level rise and inundation within coastal Louisiana. Global sea level is rising, and coastal Louisiana is subsiding. Therefore, there is a need to monitor these trends over time for coastal restoration and hazard mitigation efforts. TOPEX/POSEIDON and Jason-data are used for global sea level estimates and have also been demonstrated successfully in water level studies of lakes, river basins, and floodplains throughout the world. To employ TOPEX/POSEIDON and Jason-1 data in coastal regions, the numerous steps involved in processing the data over non-open ocean areas must be assessed. This project outlined the appropriate methodology for processing non-open ocean data, including retracking and atmospheric corrections. It also inventoried the many factors in coastal land loss including subsidence, sea level rise, coastal geomorphology, and salinity levels, among others, through a review of remote sensing and field methods. In addition, the project analyzed the socioeconomic factors within the Coastal Zone as compared to the rest of Louisiana. While sensor data uncertainty must be addressed, it was determined that it is feasible to apply radar altimetry data from TOPEX/POSEIDON and Jason 1 to see trends in change within Coastal Louisiana since

  8. Impact of Groundwater-Lake Interaction on Levels of E. coli in Near-Shore Swimming Waters at Beaches of the Great Lakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crowe, A. S.

    2009-12-01

    Beaches throughout the Great Lakes frequently are under health advisories for swimming due to elevated levels of E. coli. Many studies have shown that there are several potential sources of this E. coli (e.g., livestock, sewage treatment facilities, gulls and geese), and several mechanisms for delivering E. coli to the shoreline (e.g., rivers, creeks, storm water drains, currents, waves). But, groundwater is a mechanism for E. coli transport to the shoreline that is typically overlooked. Field studies undertaken at beaches throughout the Great lakes have measured levels of E. coli in the groundwater and sand at the groundwater-lake interface that are commonly over a 1000 times above Recreational Water Quality Guidelines, and that these high levels of E. coli are restricted to a zone below the beach adjacent to and within a few metres of the lake. Groundwater flow below beaches is always towards the shoreline with almost all groundwater discharge occurring at the groundwater-lake interface (i.e., not several or a few metres off-shore). Thus, groundwater discharge of the E. coli from zone represents a substantial and long-term reservoir for E. coli loading to the near shore recreational waters, and presents a potential health risk to swimmers. The high levels of E. coli in the sand and groundwater adjacent to the lake is also due to groundwater-lake interaction. During storms, wave runup and subsequent infiltration of lake water containing E. coli at the swash zone is the primary mechanism for delivering E. coli to the groundwater and sand adjacent to the lake. Field and modeling experiments show that storm events as short as a few hours can introduce substantial levels of E. coli to the groundwater because of the high inward groundwater velocities. However, its migration into the beach away from the shoreline is restricted to a few metres beyond the maximum extent of wave runup because groundwater flow below the beach continues to flow towards the shoreline creating

  9. Sea Level Rise National Coastal Property Model

    EPA Science Inventory

    The impact of sea level rise on coastal properties depends critically on the human response to the threat, which in turn depends on several factors, including the immediacy of the risk, the magnitude of property value at risk, options for adapting to the threat and the cost of th...

  10. Salt Lake City, Utah

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2002-01-01

    Salt Lake City, Utah, will host the 2002 Winter Olympic Games. The city is located on the southeastern shore of the Great Salt Lake and sits to the west of the Wasatch Mountains, which rise more than 3,500 meters (10,000 feet) above sea level. The city was first settled in 1847 by pioneers seeking relief from religious persecution. Today Salt Lake City, the capital of Utah, is home to more than 170,000 residents. This true-color image of Salt Lake City was acquired by the Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), flying aboard Landsat 7, on May 26, 2000. The southeastern tip of the Great Salt Lake is visible in the upper left of the image. The furrowed green and brown landscape running north-south is a portion of the Wasatch Mountains, some of which are snow-capped (white pixels). The greyish pixels in the center of the image show the developed areas of the city. A number of water reservoirs can be seen east of the mountain range. Salt Lake City International Airport is visible on the northwestern edge of the city. About 20 miles south of the airport is the Bingham Canyon Copper Mine (tan pixels), the world's largest open pit excavation. See also this MODIS image of Utah. Image courtesy NASA Landsat7 Science Team and USGS Eros Data Center

  11. Separating decadal global water cycle variability from sea level rise.

    PubMed

    Hamlington, B D; Reager, J T; Lo, M-H; Karnauskas, K B; Leben, R R

    2017-04-20

    Under a warming climate, amplification of the water cycle and changes in precipitation patterns over land are expected to occur, subsequently impacting the terrestrial water balance. On global scales, such changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS) will be reflected in the water contained in the ocean and can manifest as global sea level variations. Naturally occurring climate-driven TWS variability can temporarily obscure the long-term trend in sea level rise, in addition to modulating the impacts of sea level rise through natural periodic undulation in regional and global sea level. The internal variability of the global water cycle, therefore, confounds both the detection and attribution of sea level rise. Here, we use a suite of observations to quantify and map the contribution of TWS variability to sea level variability on decadal timescales. In particular, we find that decadal sea level variability centered in the Pacific Ocean is closely tied to low frequency variability of TWS in key areas across the globe. The unambiguous identification and clean separation of this component of variability is the missing step in uncovering the anthropogenic trend in sea level and understanding the potential for low-frequency modulation of future TWS impacts including flooding and drought.

  12. Verrucomicrobia are prevalent in north-temperate freshwater lakes and display class-level preferences between lake habitats

    PubMed Central

    Chiang, Edna; Schmidt, Marian L.; Berry, Michelle A.; Biddanda, Bopaiah A.; Burtner, Ashley; Johengen, Thomas H.; Palladino, Danna

    2018-01-01

    The bacterial phylum Verrucomicrobia was formally described two decades ago and originally believed to be a minor member of many ecosystems; however, it is now recognized as ubiquitous and abundant in both soil and aquatic systems. Nevertheless, knowledge of the drivers of its relative abundance and within-phylum habitat preferences remains sparse, especially in lake systems. Here, we documented the distribution of Verrucomicrobia in 12 inland lakes in Southeastern Michigan, a Laurentian Great Lake (Lake Michigan), and a freshwater estuary, which span a gradient in lake sizes, depths, residence times, and trophic states. A wide range of physical and geochemical parameters was covered by sampling seasonally from the surface and bottom of each lake, and by separating samples into particle-associated and free-living fractions. On average, Verrucomicrobia was the 4th most abundant phylum (range 1.7–41.7%). Fraction, season, station, and depth explained up to 70% of the variance in Verrucomicrobia community composition and preference for these habitats was phylogenetically conserved at the class-level. When relative abundance was linearly modeled against environmental data, Verrucomicrobia and non-Verrucomicrobia bacterial community composition correlated to similar quantitative environmental parameters, although there were lake system-dependent differences and > 55% of the variance remained unexplained. A majority of the phylum exhibited preference for the particle-associated fraction and two classes (Opitutae and Verrucomicrobiae) were identified to be more abundant during the spring season. This study highlights the high relative abundance of Verrucomicrobia in north temperate lake systems and expands insights into drivers of within-phylum habitat preferences of the Verrucomicrobia. PMID:29590198

  13. Impact of sea level rise on tide gate function.

    PubMed

    Walsh, Sean; Miskewitz, Robert

    2013-01-01

    Sea level rise resulting from climate change and land subsidence is expected to severely impact the duration and associated damage resulting from flooding events in tidal communities. These communities must continuously invest resources for the maintenance of existing structures and installation of new flood prevention infrastructure. Tide gates are a common flood prevention structure for low-lying communities in the tidal zone. Tide gates close during incoming tides to prevent inundation from downstream water propagating inland and open during outgoing tides to drain upland areas. Higher downstream mean sea level elevations reduce the effectiveness of tide gates by impacting the hydraulics of the system. This project developed a HEC-RAS and HEC-HMS model of an existing tide gate structure and its upland drainage area in the New Jersey Meadowlands to simulate the impact of rising mean sea level elevations on the tide gate's ability to prevent upstream flooding. Model predictions indicate that sea level rise will reduce the tide gate effectiveness resulting in longer lasting and deeper flood events. The results indicate that there is a critical point in the sea level elevation for this local area, beyond which flooding scenarios become dramatically worse and would have a significantly negative impact on the standard of living and ability to do business in one of the most densely populated areas of America.

  14. SEA-LEVEL RISE. Sea-level rise due to polar ice-sheet mass loss during past warm periods.

    PubMed

    Dutton, A; Carlson, A E; Long, A J; Milne, G A; Clark, P U; DeConto, R; Horton, B P; Rahmstorf, S; Raymo, M E

    2015-07-10

    Interdisciplinary studies of geologic archives have ushered in a new era of deciphering magnitudes, rates, and sources of sea-level rise from polar ice-sheet loss during past warm periods. Accounting for glacial isostatic processes helps to reconcile spatial variability in peak sea level during marine isotope stages 5e and 11, when the global mean reached 6 to 9 meters and 6 to 13 meters higher than present, respectively. Dynamic topography introduces large uncertainties on longer time scales, precluding robust sea-level estimates for intervals such as the Pliocene. Present climate is warming to a level associated with significant polar ice-sheet loss in the past. Here, we outline advances and challenges involved in constraining ice-sheet sensitivity to climate change with use of paleo-sea level records. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  15. Lake level and climate records of the last 90 ka from the Northern Basin of Lake Van, eastern Turkey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Çağatay, M. N.; Öğretmen, N.; Damcı, E.; Stockhecke, M.; Sancar, Ü.; Eriş, K. K.; Özeren, S.

    2014-11-01

    Sedimentary, geochemical and mineralogical analyses of the ICDP cores recovered from the Northern Basin (NB) of Lake Van provide evidence of lake level and climatic changes related to orbital and North Atlantic climate system over the last 90 ka. High lake levels are generally observed during the interglacial and interstadial periods, which are marked by deposition of varved sediments with high total organic carbon (TOC), total inorganic carbon (TIC), low detrital influx (high Ca/F) and high δ18O and δ13C values of authigenic carbonate. During the glacial and stadial periods of 71-58 ka BP (Marine Isotope Stage 4, MIS4) and end of last glaciation-deglaciation (30-14.5 ka BP; MIS3) relatively low lake levels prevailed, and grey homogeneous to faintly laminated clayey silts were deposited at high sedimentation and low organic productivity rates. Millennial-scale variability of the proxies during 60-30 ka BP (MIS3 is correlated with the Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O)) and Holocene abrupt climate events in the Atlantic. These events are characterized by laminated sediments, with high TOC, TIC, Ca/Fe, δ18O and δ13C values. The Lake Van NB records correlate well in the region with the climate records from the lakes Zeribar and Urmia in Iran and the Sofular Cave in NW Anatolia, but are in general in anti-phase to those from the Dead Sea Basin (Lake Lisan) in the Levant. The relatively higher δ18O values (0 to -0.4‰) for the interglacial and interstadial periods in the Lake Van NB section are due to the higher temperature and seasonality of precipitation and higher evaporation, whereas the lower values (-0.8 to -2‰) during the glacial and stadial periods are caused mainly by relative decrease in both temperature and seasonality of precipitation. The high δ18O values (up to 4.2‰) during the Younger Dryas, together with the presence of dolomite and low TOC contents, supports evaporative conditions and low lake level. A gradual decrease in the δ18O values from an

  16. Tidal wetland stability in the face of human impacts and sea-level rise.

    PubMed

    Kirwan, Matthew L; Megonigal, J Patrick

    2013-12-05

    Coastal populations and wetlands have been intertwined for centuries, whereby humans both influence and depend on the extensive ecosystem services that wetlands provide. Although coastal wetlands have long been considered vulnerable to sea-level rise, recent work has identified fascinating feedbacks between plant growth and geomorphology that allow wetlands to actively resist the deleterious effects of sea-level rise. Humans alter the strength of these feedbacks by changing the climate, nutrient inputs, sediment delivery and subsidence rates. Whether wetlands continue to survive sea-level rise depends largely on how human impacts interact with rapid sea-level rise, and socio-economic factors that influence transgression into adjacent uplands.

  17. Are all temperate lakes eutrophying in a warmer world?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paltsev, A.; Creed, I. F.

    2017-12-01

    Freshwater lakes are at risk of eutrophication due to climate change and intensification of human activities on the planet. In relatively undisturbed areas of the temperate forest biome, lakes are "sentinels" of the effects of rising temperatures. We hypothesise that rising temperatures are driving a shift from nutrient-poor oligotrophic states to nutrient-rich eutrophic states. To test this hypothesis, we examined a time series of satellite based chlorophyll-a (a proxy of algal biomass) of 12,000+ lakes over 30 years in the Canadian portion of the Laurentian Great Lakes basin. From the time series, non-stationary trends (detected by Mann-Kendall analysis) and stationary cycles (revealed through Morlet wavelet analysis) were removed, and the standard deviation (SD) of the remaining residuals was used as an indicator of lake stability. Four classes of lake stability were identified: (1) stable (SD is consistently low); (2) destabilizing (SD increases over time); (3) unstable (SD is consistently high); and (4) stabilizing lakes (SD decreases over time). Stable lakes were either oligotrophic or eutrophic indicating the presence of two stable states in the region. Destabilizing lakes were shifting from oligotrophic to lakes with a higher trophic status (indicating eutrophication), unstable lakes were mostly mesotrophic, and stabilizing lakes were shifting from eutrophic to the lakes with lower trophic status (indicating oligotrophication). In contrast to common expectations, while many lakes (2142) were shifting from oligotrophic to eutrophic states, more lakes (3199) were showing the opposite trend and shifting from eutrophic to oligotrophic states. This finding reveals a complexity of lake responses to rising temperatures and the need to improve understanding of why some lakes shift while others do not. Future work is focused on exploring the interactive effects of global, regional, and local drivers of lake trophic states.

  18. Potential effects of sea-level rise on coastal wetlands in southeastern Louisiana

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Glick, Patty; Clough, Jonathan; Polaczyk, Amy; Couvillion, Brady R.; Nunley, Brad

    2013-01-01

    Coastal Louisiana wetlands contain about 37% of the estuarine herbaceous marshes in the conterminous United States. The long-term stability of coastal wetlands is often a function of a wetland's ability to maintain elevation equilibrium with mean sea level through processes such as primary production and sediment accretion. However, Louisiana has sustained more coastal wetland loss than all other states in the continental United States combined due to a combination of natural and anthropogenic factors, including sea-level rise. This study investigates the potential impact of current and accelerating sea-level rise rates on key coastal wetland habitats in southeastern Louisiana using the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM). Model calibration was conducted using a 1956–2007 observation period and hindcasting results predicted 35% versus observed 39% total marsh loss. Multiple sea-level-rise scenarios were then simulated for the period of 2007–2100. Results indicate a range of potential wetland losses by 2100, from an additional 2,188.97 km2 (218,897 ha, 9% of the 2007 wetland area) under the lowest sea-level-rise scenario (0.34 m), to a potential loss of 5,875.27 km2 (587,527 ha, 24% of the 2007 wetland area) in the highest sea-level-rise scenario (1.9 m). Model results suggest that one area of particular concern is the potential vulnerability of the region's baldcypress-water tupelo (Taxodium distichum-Nyssa aquatica) swamp habitat, much of which is projected to become permanently flooded (affecting regeneration) under all modeled scenarios for sea-level rise. These findings will aid in the development of ecosystem management plans that support the processes and conditions that result in sustainable coastal ecosystems.

  19. Coastal Louisiana in Crisis: Subsidence or Sea Level Rise?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    González, Juan L.; Törnqvist, Torbjörn E.

    2006-11-01

    The drowning of wetlands and barrier islands in coastal Louisiana has become a widely publicized environmental catastrophe in the wake of hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005. The devastation caused by these storms has reenergized the debate about restoring the natural coastal-defense system and building higher and sturdier levees, in anticipation of future storms. Understanding the contributions of land subsidence and eustatic (global) sea level rise to Louisiana's wetland loss is crucial to the success of any plan designed to protect coastal communities. It is argued here that accelerated sea level rise in the future may pose a larger threat than subsidence for considerable portions of coastal Louisiana.

  20. Modeling Tidal Wetland Resiliency in the Face of Predicted Accelerated Sea-Level Rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schile, L. M.; Callaway, J.; Morris, J. T.; Kelly, M.

    2014-12-01

    Tidal wetland ecosystems are dynamic coastal habitats that, in California, often occur at the complex nexus of aquatic environments, diked and leveed baylands, and modified upland habitat. Because of their prime location and rich peat soil, many wetlands have been reduced, degraded, and/or destroyed, and yet their important role in carbon sequestration, nutrient and sediment filtering, and as habitat requires us to further examine their sustainability in light of predicted climate change. Predictions of climate change effects for the San Francisco Bay Estuary present a future with reduced summer freshwater input and increased sea levels. We examined the applicability and accuracy of the Marsh Equilibrium Model (MEM), a zero-dimensional model that models organic and inorganic accretion rates under a given rate of sea-level rise. MEM was calibrated using data collected from salt and brackish marshes in the San Francisco Bay Estuary to examine wetland resiliency under a range of sea-level rise and suspended sediment concentration scenarios. At sea-level rise rates 100 cm/century and lower, wetlands remained vegetated. Once sea levels rise above 100 cm, marshes begin to lose ability to maintain elevation, and the presence of adjacent upland habitat becomes increasingly important for marsh migration. The negative effects of sea-level rise on elevations were compounded as suspended sediment concentrations decreased. Results from this study emphasize that the wetland landscape in the bay is threatened with rising sea levels, and there are a limited number of wetlands that will be able to migrate to higher ground as sea levels rise.

  1. Simulation analysis of water-level changes in the Navajo sandstone due to changes in the altitude of Lake Powell near Wahweap Bay, Utah and Arizona

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thomas, B.E.

    1986-01-01

    A two-dimensional, finite difference, digital computer model was used to simulate various concepts of groundwater flow near Wahweap Bay, Lake Powell. The filling of Lake Powell started in March 1963; and by 1983 the lake had risen almost 550 ft. This resulted in a maximum observed water level rise of 395 ft in a well in the Navajo Sandstone 1 mi from the lake. A steady-state model was prepared with subsurface recharge rates of 5,720 acre-ft/yr, 10,440 acre-ft/yr, and 14,820 acre-ft/yr, resulting in a range of hydraulic conductivity of 0.25 to 3.38 ft/da. Comparing measured and simulated water level changes resulted in a range of specific yield of 0.02 to 0.15. Using larger values for hydraulic conductivity in the model area corresponding to the axis of the Wahweap syncline and the Echo monocline was instrumental in attaining a reasonable match for the water level distribution. This supports previous concepts that areas where rocks are structurally deformed more readily transmit groundwater because of the higher degree of fracturing. Using the most likely simulation of the flow system, groundwater storage in the Navajo increased by about 25,000 acre ft/mi of shoreline form 1963-83, but the flow system will require about 400 yr to reach a state of equilibrium. (Author 's abstract)

  2. Repeated sedimentation and exposure of glacial Lake Missoula sediments: A lake-level history at Garden Gulch, Montana, USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, Larry N.

    2017-01-01

    Glaciolacustrine sediments record lake transgression, regression, and subaerial modification of the silty lake-bottom of glacial Lake Missoula in the Clark Fork River valley. The sequence preserved at Garden Gulch, MT documents lake-level fluctuations at >65% of its full-pool volume. Twelve sedimentary cycles fine upwards from (1) very fine-grained sandy silt to (2) silt with climbing ripples to (3) rhythmically laminated silt and some clay. The cycles are fine-grained turbidites capped locally by thin layers of angular gravel derived from local bedrock outcrops. The gravels appear to be the toes of mass wasting lobes carried onto the exposed lakebed surface during repeated lake-level lowerings. Periglacial wedges, small rotational faults, involutions, and clastic dikes deform the tops of eleven cycles. The wedges are 10-30 cm wide, penetrate 30-70 cm deep, are spaced <1 m apart, and contain vertically oriented gravel and massive to laminated sediment. Wedges split and taper in plan view. A few thin silt-filled dikes, which branch and taper downwards from wedges, are interpreted as filled frost cracks. One 10-20 cm-wide sand-filled dike protrudes upward from a sand bed; it is interpreted as a liquefaction feature consistent with a filling and draining lake. The deformed cycle tops preserve evidence of periglacial cold, subaerial exposure, seasonal frost heave, and the incipient formation of sorted polygons. The lowest five cycles are thicker and display more periglacial modification at their tops than the upper seven cycles. The Garden Gulch section may represent as few as seven and as many as twelve substantial fillings and partial to complete drainings of glacial Lake Missoula.

  3. Coralgal reef morphology records punctuated sea-level rise during the last deglaciation.

    PubMed

    Khanna, Pankaj; Droxler, André W; Nittrouer, Jeffrey A; Tunnell, John W; Shirley, Thomas C

    2017-10-19

    Coralgal reefs preserve the signatures of sea-level fluctuations over Earth's history, in particular since the Last Glacial Maximum 20,000 years ago, and are used in this study to indicate that punctuated sea-level rise events are more common than previously observed during the last deglaciation. Recognizing the nature of past sea-level rises (i.e., gradual or stepwise) during deglaciation is critical for informing models that predict future vertical behavior of global oceans. Here we present high-resolution bathymetric and seismic sonar data sets of 10 morphologically similar drowned reefs that grew during the last deglaciation and spread 120 km apart along the south Texas shelf edge. Herein, six commonly observed terrace levels are interpreted to be generated by several punctuated sea-level rise events forcing the reefs to shrink and backstep through time. These systematic and common terraces are interpreted to record punctuated sea-level rise events over timescales of decades to centuries during the last deglaciation, previously recognized only during the late Holocene.

  4. Sensitivity analysis of hydrogeological parameters affecting groundwater storage change caused by sea level rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shin, J.; Kim, K.-H.; Lee, K.-K.

    2012-04-01

    Sea level rise, which is one of the representative phenomena of climate changes caused by global warming, can affect groundwater system. The rising trend of the sea level caused by the global warming is reported to be about 3 mm/year for the most recent 10 year average (IPCC, 2007). The rate of sea level rise around the Korean peninsula is reported to be 2.30±2.22 mm/yr during the 1960-1999 period (Cho, 2002) and 2.16±1.77 mm/yr (Kim et al., 2009) during the 1968-2007 period. Both of these rates are faster than the 1.8±0.5 mm/yr global average for the similar 1961-2003 period (IPCC, 2007). In this study, we analyzed changes in the groundwater environment affected by the sea level rise by using an analytical methodology. We tried to find the most effective parameters of groundwater amount change in order to estimate the change in fresh water amount in coastal groundwater. A hypothetical island model of a cylindrical shape in considered. The groundwater storage change is bi-directional as the sea level rises according to the natural and hydrogeological conditions. Analysis of the computation results shows that topographic slope and hydraulic conductivity are the most sensitive factors. The contributions of the groundwater recharge rate and the thickness of aquifer below sea level are relatively less effective. In the island with steep seashore slopes larger than 1~2 degrees or so, the storage amount of fresh water in a coastal area increases as sea level rises. On the other hand, when sea level drops, the storage amount decreases. This is because the groundwater level also rises with the rising sea level in steep seashores. For relatively flat seashores, where the slope is smaller than around 1-2 degrees, the storage amount of coastal fresh water decreases when the sea level rises because the area flooded by the rising sea water is increased. The volume of aquifer fresh water in this circumstance is greatly reduced in proportion to the flooded area with the sea

  5. Comment [on “Sea level rise shown to drive coastal erosion”

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sallenger,, Asbury H.; Morton, Robert; Fletcher, Charles; Thieler, E. Robert; Howd, Peter

    2000-01-01

    In a recent article (Eos, Trans., AGU, February 8, 2000, p.55), Leatherman et al. [2000] state that they have confirmed an association between sea-level rise and coastal erosion. Applying their results to the New Jersey, Delaware, and Maryland coasts and using a projected sea-level rise, the authors predict that by 2050 the shoreline will recede 60 m, about two times the average beach width. However, Leatherman et al. [2000] have not convincingly quantified a relationship between sea-level rise and shoreline erosion.We do not agree with their rationale for subsetting their data, and they have not considered other explanations for a background erosion along the U.S. east coast. Furthermore, their future projections are not supported by their analyses.

  6. Mercury levels in herring gulls and fish: 42 years of spatio-temporal trends in the Great Lakes.

    PubMed

    Blukacz-Richards, E Agnes; Visha, Ariola; Graham, Matthew L; McGoldrick, Daryl L; de Solla, Shane R; Moore, David J; Arhonditsis, George B

    2017-04-01

    Total mercury levels in aquatic birds and fish communities have been monitored across the Canadian Great Lakes by Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) for the past 42 years (1974-2015). These data (22 sites) were used to examine spatio-temporal variability of mercury levels in herring gull (Larus argentatus) eggs, lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush), walleye (Sander vitreus), and rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax). Trends were quantified with dynamic linear models, which provided time-variant rates of change of mercury concentrations. Lipid content (in both fish and eggs) and length in fish were used as covariates in all models. For the first three decades, mercury levels in gull eggs and fish declined at all stations. In the 2000s, trends for herring gull eggs reversed at two sites in Lake Erie and two sites in Lake Ontario. Similar trend reversals in the 2000s were observed for lake trout in Lake Superior and at a single station in Lake Ontario. Mercury levels in lake trout continued to slowly decline at all of the remaining stations, except for Lake Huron, where the levels remained stable. A post-hoc Bayesian regression analysis suggests strong trophic interactions between herring gulls and rainbow smelt in Lake Superior and Lake Ontario, but also pinpoints the likelihood of a trophic decoupling in Lake Huron and Lake Erie. Continued monitoring of mercury levels in herring gulls and fish is required to consolidate these trophic shifts and further evaluate their broader implications. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. The contribution of sea-level rise to flooding in large river catchments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thiele-Eich, I.; Hopson, T. M.; Gilleland, E.; Lamarque, J.; Hu, A.; Simmer, C.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change is expected to both impact sea level rise as well as flooding. Our study focuses on the combined effect of climate change on upper catchment precipitation as well as on sea-level rise at the river mouths and the impact this will have on river flooding both at the coast and further upstream. We concentrate on the eight catchments of the Amazonas, Congo, Orinoco, Ganges/Brahmaputra/Meghna, Mississippi, St. Lawrence, Danube and Niger rivers. To assess the impact of climate change, upper catchment precipitation as well as monthly mean thermosteric sea-level rise at the river mouth outflow are taken from the four CCSM4 1° 20th Century ensemble members as well as from six CCSM4 1° ensemble members for the RCP scenarios RCP8.5, 6.0, 4.5 and 2.6. Continuous daily time series for average catchment precipitation and discharge are available for each of the catchments. To arrive at a future discharge time series, we used these observations to develop a simple statistical hydrological model which can be applied to the modelled future upper catchment precipitation values. The analysis of this surrogate discharge time series alone already yields significant changes in flood return levels as well as flood duration. Using the geometry of the river channel, the backwater effect of sea-level rise is incorporated in our analysis of both flood frequencies and magnitudes by calculating the effective additional discharge due to the increase in water level at the river mouth outflow, as well as its tapering impact upstream. By combining these effects, our results focus on the merged impact of changes in extreme precipitation with increases in river height due to sea-level rise at the river mouths. Judging from our preliminary results, the increase in effective discharge due to sea-level rise cannot be neglected when discussing late 21st century flooding in the respective river basins. In particular, we find that especially in countries with low elevation gradient, flood

  8. Quantitative assessment of glacial fluctuations in the level of Lake Lisan, Dead Sea rift

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rohling, Eelco J.

    2013-06-01

    A quantitative understanding of climatic variations in the Levant during the last glacial cycle is needed to support archaeologists in assessing the drivers behind hominin migrations and cultural developments in this key region at the intersection between Africa and Europe. It will also foster a better understanding of the region's natural variability as context to projections of modern climate change. Detailed documentation of variations in the level of Lake Lisan - the lake that occupied the Dead Sea rift during the last glacial cycle - provides crucial climatic information for this region. Existing reconstructions suggest that Lake Lisan highstands during cold intervals of the last glacial cycle represent relatively humid conditions in the region, but these interpretations have remained predominantly qualitative. Here, I evaluate realistic ranges of the key climatological parameters that controlled lake level, based on the observed timing and amplitudes of lake-level variability. I infer that a mean precipitation rate over the wider catchment area of about 500 mm y-1, as proposed in the literature, would be consistent with observed lake levels if there was a concomitant 15-50% increase in wind speed during cold glacial stadials. This lends quantitative support to previous inferences of a notable increase in the intensity of Mediterranean (winter) storms during glacial periods, which tracked eastward into the Levant. In contrast to highstands during ‘regular’ stadials, lake level dropped during Heinrich Events. I demonstrate that this likely indicates a further intensification of the winds during those times.

  9. Fault-dominated deformation in an ice dam during annual filling and drainage of a marginal lake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Walder, J.S.; Trabant, D.C.; Cunico, M.; Anderson, S.P.; Anderson, R. Scott; Fountain, A.G.; Malm, A.

    2005-01-01

    Ice-dammed Hidden Creek Lake, Alaska, USA, outbursts annually in about 2-3 days. As the lake fills, a wedge of water penetrates beneath the glacier, and the surface of this 'ice dam' rises; the surface then falls as the lake drains. Detailed optical surveying of the glacier near the lake allows characterization of ice-dam deformation. Surface uplift rate is close to the rate of lake-level rise within about 400 m of the lake, then decreases by 90% over about 100 m. Such a steep gradient in uplift rate cannot be explained in terms of ice-dam flexure. Moreover, survey targets spanning the zone of steep uplift gradient move relative to one another in a nearly reversible fashion as the lake fills and drains. Evidently, the zone of steep uplift gradient is a fault zone, with the faults penetrating the entire thickness of the ice dam. Fault motion is in a reverse sense as the lake fills, but in a normal sense as the lake drains. As the overall fault pattern is the same from year to year, even though ice is lost by calving, the faults must be regularly regenerated, probably by linkage of surface and bottom crevasses as ice is advected toward the lake basin.

  10. Coastal vulnerability assessment of Dry Tortugas National Park (DRTO) to sea-level rise

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pendleton, Elizabeth A.; Thieler, E. Robert; Williams, S. Jeffress

    2005-01-01

    A coastal vulnerability index (CVI) was used to map the relative vulnerability of the coast to future sea-level rise within Dry Tortugas National Park in Florida. The CVI ranks the following in terms of their physical contribution to sea-level rise-related coastal change: geomorphology, regional coastal slope, rate of relative sea-level rise, historical shoreline change rates, mean tidal range and mean significant wave height. The rankings for each input variable were combined and an index value calculated for 1-minute grid cells covering the park. The CVI highlights those regions where the physical effects of sea-level rise might be the greatest. This approach combines the coastal system's susceptibility to change with its natural ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions, yielding a quantitative, although relative, measure of the park's natural vulnerability to the effects of sea-level rise. The CVI provides an objective technique for evaluation and long-term planning by scientists and park managers. Dry Tortugas National Park (DRTO) consists of relatively stable to washover-dominated portions of carbonate beach and man-made fortification. The areas within Dry Tortugas that are likely to be most vulnerable to sea-level rise are those with the highest rates of shoreline erosion and the highest wave energy.

  11. Coastal vulnerability assessment of Cape Hatteras National Seashore (CAHA) to sea-level rise

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pendleton, Elizabeth A.; Theiler, E. Robert; Williams, S. Jeffress

    2005-01-01

    A coastal vulnerability index (CVI) was used to map the relative vulnerability of the coast to future sea-level rise within Cape Hatteras National Seashore (CAHA) in North Carolina. The CVI ranks the following in terms of their physical contribution to sea-level rise-related coastal change: geomorphology, regional coastal slope, rate of relative sea-level rise, historical shoreline change rates, mean tidal range, and mean significant wave height. The rankings for each variable were combined and an index value was calculated for 1-minute grid cells covering the park. The CVI highlights those regions where the physical effects of sea-level rise might be the greatest. This approach combines the coastal system's susceptibility to change with its natural ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions, yielding a quantitative, although relative, measure of the park's natural vulnerability to the effects of sea-level rise. The CVI provides an objective technique for evaluation and long-term planning by scientists and park managers. Cape Hatteras National Seashore consists of stable and washover dominated segments of barrier beach backed by wetland and marsh. The areas within Cape Hatteras that are likely to be most vulnerable to sea-level rise are those with the highest occurrence of overwash and the highest rates of shoreline change.

  12. Coastal Vulnerability Assessment of Padre Island National Seashore (PAIS) to Sea-Level Rise

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pendleton, Elizabeth A.; Thieler, E. Robert; Williams, S. Jeffress; Beavers, Rebecca S.

    2004-01-01

    A coastal vulnerability index (CVI) was used to map the relative vulnerability of the coast to future sea-level rise within Padre Island National Seashore in Texas. The CVI ranks the following in terms of their physical contribution to sea-level rise-related coastal change: geomorphology, regional coastal slope, rate of relative sea-level rise, shoreline change rates, mean tidal range and mean significant wave height. The rankings for each variable were combined and an index value calculated for 1-minute grid cells covering the park. The CVI highlights those regions where the physical effects of sea-level rise might be the greatest. This approach combines the coastal system's susceptibility to change with its natural ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions, yielding a quantitative, although relative, measure of the park's natural vulnerability to the effects of sea-level rise. The CVI provides an objective technique for evaluation and long-term planning by scientists and park managers. Padre Island National Seashore consists of stable to washover dominated portions of barrier beach backed by wetland, marsh, tidal flat, or grassland. The areas within Padre that are likely to be most vulnerable to sea-level rise are those with the highest occurrence of overwash and the highest rates of shoreline change.

  13. Land subsidence and relative sea-level rise in the southern Chesapeake Bay region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Eggleston, Jack; Pope, Jason

    2013-01-01

    The southern Chesapeake Bay region is experiencing land subsidence and rising water levels due to global sea-level rise; land subsidence and rising water levels combine to cause relative sea-level rise. Land subsidence has been observed since the 1940s in the southern Chesapeake Bay region at rates of 1.1 to 4.8 millimeters per year (mm/yr), and subsidence continues today. This land subsidence helps explain why the region has the highest rates of sea-level rise on the Atlantic Coast of the United States. Data indicate that land subsidence has been responsible for more than half the relative sea-level rise measured in the region. Land subsidence increases the risk of flooding in low-lying areas, which in turn has important economic, environmental, and human health consequences for the heavily populated and ecologically important southern Chesapeake Bay region. The aquifer system in the region has been compacted by extensive groundwater pumping in the region at rates of 1.5- to 3.7-mm/yr; this compaction accounts for more than half of observed land subsidence in the region. Glacial isostatic adjustment, or the flexing of the Earth’s crust in response to glacier formation and melting, also likely contributes to land subsidence in the region.

  14. Major and trace element geochemistry of Lake Bogoria and Lake Nakuru, Kenya, during extreme draught.

    PubMed

    Jirsa, Franz; Gruber, Martin; Stojanovic, Anja; Omondi, Steve Odour; Mader, Dieter; Körner, Wilfried; Schagerl, Michael

    2013-10-01

    The physico-chemical properties of water samples from the two athalassic endorheic lakes Bogoria and Nakuru in Kenya were analysed. Surface water samples were taken between July 2008 and October 2009 in weekly intervals from each lake. The following parameters were determined: pH, salinity, electric conductivity, dissolved organic carbon (DOC), the major cations (FAAS and ICP-OES) and the major anions (IC), as well as certain trace elements (ICP-OES). Samples of superficial sediments were taken in October 2009 and examined using Instrumental Neutron Activation Analysis (INAA) for their major and trace element content including rare earth elements (REE). Both lakes are highly alkaline with a dominance of Na > K > Si > Ca in cations and HCO 3  > CO 3  > Cl > F > SO 4 in anions. Both lakes also exhibited high concentrations of Mo, As and fluoride. Due to an extreme draught from March to October 2009, the water level of Lake Nakuru dropped significantly. This created drastic evapoconcentration, with the total salinity rising from about 20‰ up to 63‰. Most parameters (DOC, Na, K, Ca, F, Mo and As) increased with falling water levels. A clear change in the quality of DOC was observed, followed by an almost complete depletion of dissolved Fe from the water phase. In Lake Bogoria the evapoconcentration effects were less pronounced (total salinity changed from about 40‰ to 48‰). The distributions of REE in the superficial sediments of Lake Nakuru and Lake Bogoria are presented here for the first time. The results show a high abundance of the REE and a very distinct Eu depletion of Eu/Eu* = 0.33-0.45.

  15. Major and trace element geochemistry of Lake Bogoria and Lake Nakuru, Kenya, during extreme draught

    PubMed Central

    Jirsa, Franz; Gruber, Martin; Stojanovic, Anja; Omondi, Steve Odour; Mader, Dieter; Körner, Wilfried; Schagerl, Michael

    2013-01-01

    The physico-chemical properties of water samples from the two athalassic endorheic lakes Bogoria and Nakuru in Kenya were analysed. Surface water samples were taken between July 2008 and October 2009 in weekly intervals from each lake. The following parameters were determined: pH, salinity, electric conductivity, dissolved organic carbon (DOC), the major cations (FAAS and ICP-OES) and the major anions (IC), as well as certain trace elements (ICP-OES). Samples of superficial sediments were taken in October 2009 and examined using Instrumental Neutron Activation Analysis (INAA) for their major and trace element content including rare earth elements (REE). Both lakes are highly alkaline with a dominance of Na > K > Si > Ca in cations and HCO3 > CO3 > Cl > F > SO4 in anions. Both lakes also exhibited high concentrations of Mo, As and fluoride. Due to an extreme draught from March to October 2009, the water level of Lake Nakuru dropped significantly. This created drastic evapoconcentration, with the total salinity rising from about 20‰ up to 63‰. Most parameters (DOC, Na, K, Ca, F, Mo and As) increased with falling water levels. A clear change in the quality of DOC was observed, followed by an almost complete depletion of dissolved Fe from the water phase. In Lake Bogoria the evapoconcentration effects were less pronounced (total salinity changed from about 40‰ to 48‰). The distributions of REE in the superficial sediments of Lake Nakuru and Lake Bogoria are presented here for the first time. The results show a high abundance of the REE and a very distinct Eu depletion of Eu/Eu* = 0.33–0.45. PMID:25843965

  16. Preliminary investigation of the effects of sea-level rise on groundwater levels in New Haven, Connecticut

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bjerklie, David M.; Mullaney, John R.; Stone, Janet R.; Skinner, Brian J.; Ramlow, Matthew A.

    2012-01-01

    Global sea level rose about 0.56 feet (ft) (170 millimeters (mm)) during the 20th century. Since the 1960s, sea level has risen at Bridgeport, Connecticut, about 0.38 ft (115 mm), at a rate of 0.008 ft (2.56 mm + or - 0.58 mm) per year. With regional subsidence, and with predicted global climate change, sea level is expected to continue to rise along the northeast coast of the United States through the 21st century. Increasing sea levels will cause groundwater levels in coastal areas to rise in order to adjust to the new conditions. Some regional climate models predict wetter climate in the northeastern United States under some scenarios. Scenarios for the resulting higher groundwater levels have the potential to inundate underground infrastructure in lowlying coastal cities. New Haven is a coastal city in Connecticut surrounded and bisected by tidally affected waters. Monitoring of water levels in wells in New Haven from August 2009 to July 2010 indicates the complex effects of urban influence on groundwater levels. The response of groundwater levels to recharge and season varied considerably from well to well. Groundwater temperatures varied seasonally, but were warmer than what was typical for Connecticut, and they seem to reflect the influence of the urban setting, including the effects of conduits for underground utilities. Specific conductance was elevated in many of the wells, indicating the influence of urban activities or seawater in Long Island Sound. A preliminary steady-state model of groundwater flow for part of New Haven was constructed using MODFLOW to simulate current groundwater levels (2009-2010) and future groundwater levels based on scenarios with a rise of 3 ft (0.91 meters (m)) in sea level, which is predicted for the end of the 21st century. An additional simulation was run assuming a 3-ft rise in sea level combined with a 12-percent increase in groundwater recharge. The model was constructed from existing hydrogeologic information for the

  17. Timing of lake-level changes for a deep last-glacial Lake Missoula: optical dating of the Garden Gulch area, Montana, USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, Larry N.; Sohbati, Reza; Buylaert, Jan-Pieter; Lian, Olav B.; Murray, Andrew; Jain, Mayank

    2018-03-01

    Glaciolacustrine sediments in the Clark Fork River valley at Garden Gulch, near Drummond, Montana, USA record highstand positions of the ice-dammed glacial Lake Missoula and repeated subaerial exposure. During these highstands the lake was at greater than 65% of its recognized maximum capacity. The initial lake transgression deposited a basal sand unit. Subsequent cycles of lake-level fluctuations are recorded by sequences of laminated and cross laminated silt, sand, and clay deformed by periglacial processes during intervening periods of lower lake levels. Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating of quartz sand grains, using single-aliquot regenerative-dose procedures, was carried out on 17 samples. Comparison of infrared stimulated luminescence (IRSL) from K-rich feldspar to OSL from quartz for all the samples suggests that they were well bleached prior to deposition and burial. Ages for the basal sand and overlying glaciolacustrine exposure surfaces are indistinguishable within one standard deviation, and give a weighted mean age of 20.9 ± 1.3 ka (n = 11). Based on sedimentological and stratigraphic analysis we infer that the initial transgression, and at least six cycles of lake-level fluctuation, occurred over time scales of decades to ∼2 ka. Bioturbated sandy slopewash dated at 10.6 ± 0.9 ka and 11.9 ± 1.2 ka unconformably overlies the upper glaciolacustrine deposits. The uppermost sediments, above the glaciolacustrine section, are younger than the Glacier Peak tephra (13.7-13.4 cal ka B.P.), which was deposited across parts of the drained lake basin, but has not been found at Garden Gulch. Our study indicates that glacial Lake Missoula reached >65 percent of maximum capacity by about 20.9 ± 1.3 ka and either partially or completely drained twelve times from this position. Rapid lowering from the lake's highstand position due to ice-dam failure likely led to scour in the downstream portions of the glacial Lake Missoula basin and megafloods in the

  18. A multi-level strategy for anticipating future glacier lake formation and associated hazard potentials

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frey, H.; Haeberli, W.; Linsbauer, A.; Huggel, C.; Paul, F.

    2010-02-01

    In the course of glacier retreat, new glacier lakes can develop. As such lakes can be a source of natural hazards, strategies for predicting future glacier lake formation are important for an early planning of safety measures. In this article, a multi-level strategy for the identification of overdeepened parts of the glacier beds and, hence, sites with potential future lake formation, is presented. At the first two of the four levels of this strategy, glacier bed overdeepenings are estimated qualitatively and over large regions based on a digital elevation model (DEM) and digital glacier outlines. On level 3, more detailed and laborious models are applied for modeling the glacier bed topography over smaller regions; and on level 4, special situations must be investigated in-situ with detailed measurements such as geophysical soundings. The approaches of the strategy are validated using historical data from Trift Glacier, where a lake formed over the past decade. Scenarios of future glacier lakes are shown for the two test regions Aletsch and Bernina in the Swiss Alps. In the Bernina region, potential future lake outbursts are modeled, using a GIS-based hydrological flow routing model. As shown by a corresponding test, the ASTER GDEM and the SRTM DEM are both suitable to be used within the proposed strategy. Application of this strategy in other mountain regions of the world is therefore possible as well.

  19. Quantifying and Projecting Relative Sea-Level Rise At The Regional Scale: The Bangladesh Sea-Level Project (BanD-AID)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shum, C. K.; Kuo, C. Y.; Guo, J.; Shang, K.; Tseng, K. H.; Wan, J.; Calmant, S.; Ballu, V.; Valty, P.; Kusche, J.; Hossain, F.; Khan, Z. H.; Rietbroek, R.; Uebbing, B.

    2014-12-01

    The potential for accelerated sea-level rise under anthropogenic warming is a significant societal problem, in particular in world's coastal deltaic regions where about half of the world's population resides. Quantifying geophysical sources of sea-level rise with the goal of improved projection at local scales remains a complex and challenging interdisciplinary research problem. These processes include ice-sheet/glacier ablations, steric sea-level, solid Earth uplift or subsidence due to GIA, tectonics, sediment loading or anthropogenic causes, hydrologic imbalance, and human processes including water retention in reservoirs and aquifer extraction. The 2013 IPCC AR5 concluded that the observed and explained geophysical causes of global geocentric sea-level rise, 1993-2010, is closer towards closure. However, the discrepancy reveals that circa 1.3→37.5% of the observed sea-level rise remains unexplained. This relatively large discrepancy is primarily attributable to the wide range of estimates of respective contributions of Greenland and Antarctic ice-sheets and mountain/peripheral glaciers to sea-level rise. Understanding and quantifying the natural and anthropogenic processes governing solid Earth (land, islands and sea-floor) uplift or subsidence at the regional and local scales remain elusive to enable addressing coastal vulnerability due to relative sea-level rise hazards, such as the Bangladesh Delta. This study focuses on addressing coastal vulnerability of Bangladesh, a Belmont Forum/IGFA project, BanD-AID (http://Belmont-SeaLevel.org). Sea-level rise, along with tectonic, sediment load and groundwater extraction induced land uplift/subsidence, have exacerbated Bangladesh's coastal vulnerability, affecting 150 million people in one of the world's most densely populated regions. Here we present preliminary results using space geodetic observations, including satellite radar and laser altimetry, GRACE gravity, tide gauge, hydrographic, and GPS/InSAR observed

  20. Impacts of Lake Level Regulation on Beaches and Boating Facilities--Lakes Erie and Ontario and Connecting Waterways. Recreation Beaches Inventory.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1979-12-18

    feet, the crews were in- structed to take additional measurements. At very long beaches, such as at Presque Isle State Park, in Pennsylvania , the...REGULATION ON BEACHES AND BOATING FACILITIES- LAKES ERIE AND) ONTARIO AND CONNECTING WATERWAYS -I RECREATION BEACHES INVENTORY 3 December 18, 1979 Contract...CATALOG NUMBER 4. TITLE (and Subtitle) S. TYPE OF REPORT & PERIOD COVERED Impacts of Lake Level Regulation on Beaches and Boating Facilities--Lake Erie and

  1. Possible connection between large volcanic eruptions and level rise episodes in the Dead Sea Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bookman, Revital; Filin, Sagi; Avni, Yoav; Rosenfeld, Daniel; Marco, Shmuel

    2014-05-01

    The June 1991 Pinatubo volcanic eruption perturbed the atmosphere, triggering short-term worldwide changes in surface and lower troposphere temperatures, precipitation, and runoff. The following winter was anomalously wet in the Levant, with a ~2-meter increase in the Dead Sea level that created a distinct morphological terrace along the lake's shore. Given the global radiative and chemical effects of volcanogenic aerosols on climatic systems, we tested the hypothesis that the 1991-92 winter shore terrace is a modern analogue to the linkage between past volcanic eruptions and a sequence of shore terraces on the cliffs around the Dead Sea Basin. Analysis of historical annual precipitation series from Jerusalem showed a significant positive correlation between the Dust Veil Index (DVI) of the modern largest eruptions and corresponding annual rainfall. The DVI was found to explain nearly 50% of the variability in the annual rainfall, such that greater DVI means more rainfall. Other factors that may affect the annual rainfall in the region as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the North Atlantic oscillations (NAO) were incorporated along with the DVI in a linear multiple regression model. It was found that the NAO did not contribute anything except for increased noise, but the added SOI increased the explained variability of rainfall to more than 60%. The atmospheric effect of the volcanic aerosol cloud produced after the Mt. Pinatubo eruption shows responses in the climate system on a hemispherical to global scale. Volcanic eruptions with a VEI of 6, as in the Pinatubo, occurred about once a century during the Holocene period at a rate that persisted throughout the last glacial-interglacial cycle, though with large variations in the mean. This occurrence is similar to the frequency of shore terrace build-up during the Lake Lisan desiccation. Sixteen shore terraces, detected using airborne laser scanning data, were interpreted as indicating short-term level rises

  2. Can sea level rise cause large submarine landslides on continental slopes?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Urlaub, Morelia

    2014-05-01

    Submarine landslides are one of the volumetrically most important sediment transport processes at continental margins. Moreover, these landslides are a major geohazard as they can cause damaging tsunamis and destroy seabed infrastructure. Due to their inaccessibility our understanding of what causes these landslides is limited and based on hypotheses that are difficult to test. Some of the largest submarine landslides, such as the Storegga Slide off Norway, occurred during times of eustatic sea level rise. It has been suggested that this global sea level rise was implicated in triggering of the landslides by causing an increase in excess pore pressure in the subseafloor. However, in a homogeneous slope a change in the thickness of the overlying water mass is not expected to affect its stability, as only the hydrostatic pressure component will change, whereas pore pressures in excess of hydrostatic will remain unaltered. Whether sufficiently rapid sea level rise, aided by rather impermeable sediment and complex layering, could cause excess pore pressures that may destabilise a continental slope is more difficult to answer and has not yet been tested. I use Finite Element Modelling to explore and quantify the direct effect of changes in the thickness of the overlying water mass on the stability of a generic sediment column with different stratigraphic conditions and hydro-mechanical properties. The results show that the direct effect of sea level rise on continental slope stability is minimal. Nevertheless, sea level rise may foster other processes, such as lithospheric stress changes resulting in increased seismicity, that could potentially cause large submarine landslides on continental slopes.

  3. Water Level Prediction of Lake Cascade Mahakam Using Adaptive Neural Network Backpropagation (ANNBP)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mislan; Gaffar, A. F. O.; Haviluddin; Puspitasari, N.

    2018-04-01

    A natural hazard information and flood events are indispensable as a form of prevention and improvement. One of the causes is flooding in the areas around the lake. Therefore, forecasting the surface of Lake water level to anticipate flooding is required. The purpose of this paper is implemented computational intelligence method namely Adaptive Neural Network Backpropagation (ANNBP) to forecasting the Lake Cascade Mahakam. Based on experiment, performance of ANNBP indicated that Lake water level prediction have been accurate by using mean square error (MSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). In other words, computational intelligence method can produce good accuracy. A hybrid and optimization of computational intelligence are focus in the future work.

  4. A Bayesian network to predict vulnerability to sea-level rise: data report

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gutierrez, Benjamin T.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Thieler, E. Robert

    2011-01-01

    During the 21st century, sea-level rise is projected to have a wide range of effects on coastal environments, development, and infrastructure. Consequently, there has been an increased focus on developing modeling or other analytical approaches to evaluate potential impacts to inform coastal management. This report provides the data that were used to develop and evaluate the performance of a Bayesian network designed to predict long-term shoreline change due to sea-level rise. The data include local rates of relative sea-level rise, wave height, tide range, geomorphic classification, coastal slope, and shoreline-change rate compiled as part of the U.S. Geological Survey Coastal Vulnerability Index for the U.S. Atlantic coast. In this project, the Bayesian network is used to define relationships among driving forces, geologic constraints, and coastal responses. Using this information, the Bayesian network is used to make probabilistic predictions of shoreline change in response to different future sea-level-rise scenarios.

  5. Natural reservoirs and triggered seismicity: a study of two northern Utah Lakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Whidden, K. M.; Hansen, K.; Timothy, M.; Boltz, M. S.; Pankow, K. L.; Koper, K. D.

    2014-12-01

    The Great Salt Lake (GSL) and Utah Lake (UL) in northern Utah are in the middle of the Intermountain Seismic Belt, a band of active seismicity extending from western Montana through central Utah to northern Arizona. The proximity of these water bodies to an active earthquake zone is ideal for an investigation of lake-triggered seismicity. Both GSL and UL are shallow (10 and 4.3 m, respectively). The fresh water UL drains via the Jordan River into the salty GSL, which has no outlet. GSL has an aerial extent of 4400 km2, and the shallow depth and lack of outlet cause the surface area to change greatly as the lake volume increases and decreases. UL is much smaller with an almost constant aerial extent of 385 km2. For each lake, we compare yearly earthquake counts near the lake to yearly average lake level for years 1975-2013. GSL seismicity and lake level data correlate well, with seismicity increasing 3-5 years after lake level rise (cross correlation coefficient=0.56, P-value=0.0005). There is an especially large increase in seismicity in 1989 NE of the GSL following the historic lake level high stand in the mid-1980s. The 1989 seismicity has characteristics of both a swarm and a traditional mainshock/aftershock sequence. We will use a double-difference method (HypoDD) to relocate these earthquakes. UL seismicity does not correlate well with the lake level. The different results for the two lakes could perhaps be explained by the lakes' different sizes and the fact that UL has an outlet while GSL does not. The difference might also be explained by subsurface fluid pathways and available faults for nucleating earthquakes. We will further explore the significance of the GSL seismicity and lake level correlation by generating synthetic earthquake catalogs and cross correlating their yearly earthquake counts with the lake level data.

  6. Predicting the impact of tsunami in California under rising sea level

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dura, T.; Garner, A. J.; Weiss, R.; Kopp, R. E.; Horton, B.

    2017-12-01

    The flood hazard for the California coast depends not only on the magnitude, location, and rupture length of Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone earthquakes and their resultant tsunamis, but also on rising sea levels, which combine with tsunamis to produce overall flood levels. The magnitude of future sea-level rise remains uncertain even on the decadal scale, with future sea-level projections becoming even more uncertain at timeframes of a century or more. Earthquake statistics indicate that timeframes of ten thousand to one hundred thousand years are needed to capture rare, very large earthquakes. Because of the different timescales between reliable sea-level projections and earthquake distributions, simply combining the different probabilities in the context of a tsunami hazard assessment may be flawed. Here, we considered 15 earthquakes between Mw 8 to Mw 9.4 bound by -171oW and -140oW of the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone. We employed 24 realizations at each magnitude with random epicenter locations and different fault length-to-width ratios, and simulated the tsunami evolution from these 360 earthquakes at each decade from the years 2000 to 2200. These simulations were then carried out for different sea-level-rise projections to analyze the future flood hazard for California. Looking at the flood levels at tide gauges, we found that the flood level simulated at, for example, the year 2100 (including respective sea-level change) is different from the flood level calculated by adding the flood for the year 2000 to the sea-level change prediction for the year 2100. This is consistent for all sea-level rise scenarios, and this difference in flood levels range between 5% and 12% for the larger half of the given magnitude interval. Focusing on flood levels at the tide gauge in the Port of Los Angeles, the most probable flood level (including all earthquake magnitudes) in the year 2000 was 5 cm. Depending on the sea-level predictions, in the year 2050 the most probable

  7. Water Quality and Hydrology of Silver Lake, Barron County, Wisconsin, With Special Emphasis on Responses of a Terminal Lake to Changes in Phosphorus Loading and Water Level

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Robertson, Dale M.; Rose, William J.; Fitzpatrick, Faith A.

    2009-01-01

    Silver Lake is typically an oligotrophic-to-mesotrophic, soft-water, terminal lake in northwestern Wisconsin. A terminal lake is a closed-basin lake with surface-water inflows but no surface-water outflows to other water bodies. After several years with above-normal precipitation, very high water levels caused flooding of several buildings near the lake and erosion of soil around much of the shoreline, which has been associated with a degradation in water quality (increased phosphorus and chlorophyll a concentrations and decreased water clarity). To gain a better understanding of what caused the very high water levels and degradation in water quality and collect information to better understand the lake and protect it from future degradation, the U.S. Geological Survey did a detailed study from 2004 to 2008. This report describes results of the study; specifically, lake-water quality, historical changes in water level, water and phosphorus budgets for the two years monitored in the study, results of model simulations that demonstrate how changes in phosphorus inputs affect lake-water quality, and the relative importance of changes in hydrology and changes in the watershed to the water quality of the lake. From 1987 to about 1996, water quality in Silver Lake was relatively stable. Since 1996, however, summer average total phosphorus concentrations increased from about 0.008 milligrams per liter (mg/L) to 0.018 mg/L in 2003, before decreasing to 0.011 mg/L in 2008. From 1996 to 2003, Secchi depths decreased from about 14 to 7.4 feet, before increasing to about 19 feet in 2008. Therefore, Silver Lake is typically classified as oligotrophic to mesotrophic; however, during 2002-4, the lake was classified as mesotrophic to eutrophic. Because productivity in Silver Lake is limited by phosphorus, phosphorus budgets for the lake were constructed for monitoring years 2005 and 2006. The average annual input of phosphorus was 216 pounds: 78 percent from tributary and

  8. Estimation of unregulated monthly, annual, and peak streamflows in Forest City Stream and lake levels in East Grand Lake, United States-Canada border between Maine and New Brunswick

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lombard, Pamela J.

    2018-04-30

    The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the International Joint Commission, compiled historical data on regulated streamflows and lake levels and estimated unregulated streamflows and lake levels on Forest City Stream at Forest City, Maine, and East Grand Lake on the United States-Canada border between Maine and New Brunswick to study the effects on streamflows and lake levels if two or all three dam gates are left open. Historical regulated monthly mean streamflows in Forest City Stream at the outlet of East Grand Lake (referred to as Grand Lake by Environment Canada) fluctuated between 114 cubic feet per second (ft3 /s) (3.23 cubic meters per second [m3 /s]) in November and 318 ft3 /s (9.01 m3 /s) in September from 1975 to 2015 according to Environment Canada streamgaging data. Unregulated monthly mean streamflows at this location estimated from regression equations for unregulated sites range from 59.2 ft3 /s (1.68 m3 /s) in September to 653 ft3 /s (18.5 m3 /s) in April. Historical lake levels in East Grand Lake fluctuated between 431.3 feet (ft) (131.5 meters [m]) in October and 434.0 ft (132.3 m) in May from 1969 to 2016 according to Environment Canada lake level data for East Grand Lake. Average monthly lake levels modeled by using the estimated hydrology for unregulated flows, and an outflow rating built from a hydraulic model with all gates at the dam open, range from 427.7 ft (130.4 m) in September to 431.1 ft (131.4 m) in April. Average monthly lake levels would likely be from 1.8 to 5.4 ft (0.55 to 1.6 m) lower with the gates at the dam opened than they have been historically. The greatest lake level changes would be from June through September.

  9. The rise and fall of water hyacinth in Lake Victoria and the Kagera River basin, 1989-2001

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Albright, Thomas P.; Moorhouse, T.G.; McNabb, T.J.

    2004-01-01

    Water hyacinth (Eichhornia crassipes (Mart.) Solms) is an invasive aquatic macrophyte associated with major negative economic and ecological impacts to the Lake Victoria region since the plant's establishment in Uganda in the 1980s. Reliable estimates of water hyacinth distribution and extent are required to gauge the severity of the problem through time, relate water hyacinth abundance to environmental factors, identify areas requiring management action, and assess the efficacy of management actions. To provide such estimates and demonstrate the utility of remote sensing for this application, we processed and analyzed remotely sensed imagery to determine the distribution and extent of water hyacinth. Maps were produced and coverage was quantified using a hybrid unsupervised image classification approach with manual editing for each of the riparian countries of Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda, as well as for numerous gulfs and bays. A similar procedure was carried out for selected lakes in the Rwanda-Tanzania borderlands lakes region in the Kagera River basin. Results confirm the severity of the water hyacinth infestation, especially in the northern parts of the lake. A maximum lake-wide extent of at least 17,374 ha was attained in 1998. Following this, a combination of factors, including conditions associated with the 1997 to 1998 El Nin??o and biocontrol with water hyacinth weevils, appear to have contributed to a major decline in water hyacinth in the most affected parts of the lake. Some lakes in the Kagera basin, such as Lake Mihindi, Rwanda, were severely infested in the late 1990s, but the level of infestation in most of these decreased markedly by the early 2000s.

  10. On the design of high-rise buildings with a specified level of reliability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dolganov, Andrey; Kagan, Pavel

    2018-03-01

    High-rise buildings have a specificity, which significantly distinguishes them from traditional buildings of high-rise and multi-storey buildings. Steel structures in high-rise buildings are advisable to be used in earthquake-proof regions, since steel, due to its plasticity, provides damping of the kinetic energy of seismic impacts. These aspects should be taken into account when choosing a structural scheme of a high-rise building and designing load-bearing structures. Currently, modern regulatory documents do not quantify the reliability of structures. Although the problem of assigning an optimal level of reliability has existed for a long time. The article shows the possibility of designing metal structures of high-rise buildings with specified reliability. Currently, modern regulatory documents do not quantify the reliability of high-rise buildings. Although the problem of assigning an optimal level of reliability has existed for a long time. It is proposed to establish the value of reliability 0.99865 (3σ) for constructions of buildings and structures of a normal level of responsibility in calculations for the first group of limiting states. For increased (construction of high-rise buildings) and reduced levels of responsibility for the provision of load-bearing capacity, it is proposed to assign respectively 0.99997 (4σ) and 0.97725 (2σ). The coefficients of the use of the cross section of a metal beam for different levels of security are given.

  11. Soil organic matter decomposition follows plant productivity response to sea-level rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mueller, Peter; Jensen, Kai; Megonigal, James Patrick

    2015-04-01

    The accumulation of soil organic matter (SOM) is an important mechanism for many tidal wetlands to keep pace with sea-level rise. SOM accumulation is governed by the rates of production and decomposition of organic matter. While plant productivity responses to sea-level rise are well understood, far less is known about the response of SOM decomposition to accelerated sea-level rise. Here we quantified the effects of sea-level rise on SOM decomposition by exposing planted and unplanted tidal marsh monoliths to experimentally manipulated flood duration. The study was performed in a field-based mesocosm facility at the Smithsonian Global Change Research Wetland, a micro tidal brackish marsh in Maryland, US. SOM decomposition was quantified as CO2 efflux, with plant- and SOM-derived CO2 separated using a stable carbon isotope approach. Despite the dogma that decomposition rates are inversely related to flooding, SOM mineralization was not sensitive to varying flood duration over a 35 cm range in surface elevation in unplanted mesocoms. In the presence of plants, decomposition rates were strongly and positively related to aboveground biomass (p≤0.01, R2≥0.59). We conclude that rates of soil carbon loss through decomposition are driven by plant responses to sea level in this intensively studied tidal marsh. If our result applies more generally to tidal wetlands, it has important implications for modeling carbon sequestration and marsh accretion in response to accelerated sea-level rise.

  12. Changes in the Global Hydrological Cycle: Lessons from Modeling Lake Levels at the Last Glacial Maximum

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lowry, D. P.; Morrill, C.

    2011-12-01

    Geologic evidence shows that lake levels in currently arid regions were higher and lakes in currently wet regions were lower during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Current hypotheses used to explain these lake level changes include the thermodynamic hypothesis, in which decreased tropospheric water vapor coupled with patterns of convergence and divergence caused dry areas to become more wet and vice versa, the dynamic hypothesis, in which shifts in the jet stream and Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) altered precipitation patterns, and the evaporation hypothesis, in which lake expansions are attributed to reduced evaporation in a colder climate. This modeling study uses the output of four climate models participating in phase 2 of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP2) as input into a lake energy-balance model, in order to test the accuracy of the models and understand the causes of lake level changes. We model five lakes which include the Great Basin lakes, USA; Lake Petén Itzá, Guatemala; Lake Caçó, northern Brazil; Lake Tauca (Titicaca), Bolivia and Peru; and Lake Cari-Laufquen, Argentina. These lakes create a transect through the drylands of North America through the tropics and to the drylands of South America. The models accurately recreate LGM conditions in 14 out of 20 simulations, with the Great Basin lakes being the most robust and Lake Caçó being the least robust, due to model biases in portraying the ITCZ over South America. An analysis of the atmospheric moisture budget from one of the climate models shows that thermodynamic processes contribute most significantly to precipitation changes over the Great Basin, while dynamic processes are most significant for the other lakes. Lake Cari-Laufquen shows a lake expansion that is most likely attributed to reduced evaporation rather than changes in regional precipitation, suggesting that lake levels alone may not be the best indicator of how much precipitation this region

  13. Tree-ring reconstruction of the level of Great Salt Lake, USA

    Treesearch

    R. Justin DeRose; Shih-Yu Wang; Brendan M. Buckley; Matthew F. Bekker

    2014-01-01

    Utah's Great Salt Lake (GSL) is a closed-basin remnant of the larger Pleistocene-age Lake Bonneville. The modern instrumental record of the GSL-level (i.e. elevation) change is strongly modulated by Pacific Ocean coupled ocean/atmospheric oscillations at low frequency, and therefore reflects the decadalscale wet/dry cycles that characterize the region. A within-...

  14. Precipitation driven decadal scale decline and recovery of wetlands of Lake Pannon during the Tortonian

    PubMed Central

    Kern, Andrea K.; Harzhauser, Mathias; Soliman, Ali; Piller, Werner E.; Gross, Martin

    2012-01-01

    High resolution pollen and dinoflagellate analyses were performed on a continuous 98-cm-long core from Tortonian deposits of Lake Pannon in the Styrian Basin in Austria. The sample distance of 1-cm corresponds to a resolution of roughly one decade, allowing insights into environmental and climatic changes over a millennium of Late Miocene time. Shifts in lake level, surface water productivity on a decadal- to centennial-scale can be explained by variations of rainfall during the Tortonian climatic optimum. Related to negative fine scale shifts of mean annual precipitation, shoreline vegetation belts reacted in an immediate replacement of Poaceae by Cyperaceae as dominant grasses in the marshes fringing the lake. In contrast to such near-synchronous ecosystem-responses to precipitation, a delayed lake level rise of 4–6 decades is evident in the hydrological budget of Lake Pannon. This transgression, caused by a precipitation increase up to > 1200 mm/yr, resulted in a complete dieback of marshes. Simultaneously, “open-water” dinoflagellates, such as Impagidinium, took over in the brackish lagoon and fresh water dinoflagellates disappeared. As soon as the rainfall switched back to moderate levels of ~ 1100–1200 mm/yr, the rise of the lake level slowed down, the marsh plants could keep up again and the former vegetation belts became re-established. Thus, mean annual precipitation, more than temperature, was the main driving force for high-frequency fluctuations in the Tortonian wetlands and surface water conditions of Lake Pannon. Such high resolution studies focusing on Tortonian decadal to centennial climate change will be crucial to test climate models which try to compare the Tortonian models with predictions for future climate change. PMID:23576820

  15. Effects of the human activities on the water level process of the Poyang Lake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Jun-kai; Chen, Li; Yang, Yun-xian

    2017-12-01

    The hydrological cycles in basin is profoundly affected by human activities. Yangtze River is a world class river with complex river-lake relations in the middle reaches. As the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) and other controlled reservoirs in the main stream and tributaries have been put into operation, the water regimes of the main stream in the middle reaches and Poyang Lake have been changed by water impounding and sediments trapping, clean water discharged from reservoirs, accelerating the evolution of the relationship of river and lake. After entering the 21st century, autumn droughts become more serious in Poyang Lake basin; the relationship between river and lake becomes tense. In light of the hydrological data in Poyang Lake since 2000s, this article made quantitative analyses of the influences of the human activities on the variation of the Poyang Lake level by authors. The results indicate that the main stream of Yangtze River, particularly the regulation of Three Gorges Reservoir, exerts a profound influence on the variation process of the Poyang Lake level. The regulation influence of the Upper Reach of the Yangtze River’s Reservoir Group (URYRRG) could spread to Tangyin area in the middle of the lake in October.

  16. Correlation of Late-Pleistocene Lake-Level Oscillations in Mono Lake, California, with North Atlantic Climate Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Benson, Larry V.; Lund, Steve P.; Burdett, James W.; Kashgarian, Michaele; Rose, Timothy P.; Smoot, Joseph P.; Schwartz, Martha

    1998-01-01

    Oxygen-18 ( 18O) values of sediment from the Wilson Creek Formation, Mono Basin, California, indicate three scales of temporal variation (Dansgaard-Oeschger, Heinrich, and Milankovitch) in the hydrologic balance of Mono Lake between 35,400 and 12,900 14C yr B.P. During this interval, Mono Lake experienced four lowstands each lasting from 1000 to 2000 yr. The youngest lowstand, which occurred between 15,500 and 14,000 14C yr B.P., was nearly synchronous with a desiccation of Owens Lake, California. Paleomagnetic secular variation (PSV) data indicate that three of four persistent lowstands occurred at the same times as Heinrich events H1, H2, and H4. 18O data indicate the two highest lake levels occurred ˜18,000 and ˜13,100 14C yr B.P., corresponding to passages of the mean position of the polar jet stream over the Mono Basin. Extremely low values of total inorganic carbon between 26,000 and 14,000 14C yr B.P. indicate glacial activity, corresponding to a time when summer insolation was much reduced.

  17. Long-term chloride concentrations in North American and European freshwater lakes

    PubMed Central

    Dugan, Hilary A.; Summers, Jamie C.; Skaff, Nicholas K.; Krivak-Tetley, Flora E.; Doubek, Jonathan P.; Burke, Samantha M.; Bartlett, Sarah L.; Arvola, Lauri; Jarjanazi, Hamdi; Korponai, János; Kleeberg, Andreas; Monet, Ghislaine; Monteith, Don; Moore, Karen; Rogora, Michela; Hanson, Paul C.; Weathers, Kathleen C.

    2017-01-01

    Anthropogenic sources of chloride in a lake catchment, including road salt, fertilizer, and wastewater, can elevate the chloride concentration in freshwater lakes above background levels. Rising chloride concentrations can impact lake ecology and ecosystem services such as fisheries and the use of lakes as drinking water sources. To analyze the spatial extent and magnitude of increasing chloride concentrations in freshwater lakes, we amassed a database of 529 lakes in Europe and North America that had greater than or equal to ten years of chloride data. For each lake, we calculated climate statistics of mean annual total precipitation and mean monthly air temperatures from gridded global datasets. We also quantified land cover metrics, including road density and impervious surface, in buffer zones of 100 to 1,500 m surrounding the perimeter of each lake. This database represents the largest global collection of lake chloride data. We hope that long-term water quality measurements in areas outside Europe and North America can be added to the database as they become available in the future. PMID:28786983

  18. Long-term chloride concentrations in North American and European freshwater lakes.

    PubMed

    Dugan, Hilary A; Summers, Jamie C; Skaff, Nicholas K; Krivak-Tetley, Flora E; Doubek, Jonathan P; Burke, Samantha M; Bartlett, Sarah L; Arvola, Lauri; Jarjanazi, Hamdi; Korponai, János; Kleeberg, Andreas; Monet, Ghislaine; Monteith, Don; Moore, Karen; Rogora, Michela; Hanson, Paul C; Weathers, Kathleen C

    2017-08-08

    Anthropogenic sources of chloride in a lake catchment, including road salt, fertilizer, and wastewater, can elevate the chloride concentration in freshwater lakes above background levels. Rising chloride concentrations can impact lake ecology and ecosystem services such as fisheries and the use of lakes as drinking water sources. To analyze the spatial extent and magnitude of increasing chloride concentrations in freshwater lakes, we amassed a database of 529 lakes in Europe and North America that had greater than or equal to ten years of chloride data. For each lake, we calculated climate statistics of mean annual total precipitation and mean monthly air temperatures from gridded global datasets. We also quantified land cover metrics, including road density and impervious surface, in buffer zones of 100 to 1,500 m surrounding the perimeter of each lake. This database represents the largest global collection of lake chloride data. We hope that long-term water quality measurements in areas outside Europe and North America can be added to the database as they become available in the future.

  19. Tidal marsh susceptibility to sea-level rise: importance of local-scale models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thorne, Karen M.; Buffington, Kevin J.; Elliott-Fisk, Deborah L.; Takekawa, John Y.

    2015-01-01

    Increasing concern over sea-level rise impacts to coastal tidal marsh ecosystems has led to modeling efforts to anticipate outcomes for resource management decision making. Few studies on the Pacific coast of North America have modeled sea-level rise marsh susceptibility at a scale relevant to local wildlife populations and plant communities. Here, we use a novel approach in developing an empirical sea-level rise ecological response model that can be applied to key management questions. Calculated elevation change over 13 y for a 324-ha portion of San Pablo Bay National Wildlife Refuge, California, USA, was used to represent local accretion and subsidence processes. Next, we coupled detailed plant community and elevation surveys with measured rates of inundation frequency to model marsh state changes to 2100. By grouping plant communities into low, mid, and high marsh habitats, we were able to assess wildlife species vulnerability and to better understand outcomes for habitat resiliency. Starting study-site conditions were comprised of 78% (253-ha) high marsh, 7% (30-ha) mid marsh, and 4% (18-ha) low marsh habitats, dominated by pickleweed Sarcocornia pacifica and cordgrass Spartina spp. Only under the low sea-level rise scenario (44 cm by 2100) did our models show persistence of some marsh habitats to 2100, with the area dominated by low marsh habitats. Under mid (93 cm by 2100) and high sea-level rise scenarios (166 cm by 2100), most mid and high marsh habitat was lost by 2070, with only 15% (65 ha) remaining, and a complete loss of these habitats by 2080. Low marsh habitat increased temporarily under all three sea-level rise scenarios, with the peak (286 ha) in 2070, adding habitat for the endemic endangered California Ridgway’s rail Rallus obsoletus obsoletus. Under mid and high sea-level rise scenarios, an almost complete conversion to mudflat occurred, with most of the area below mean sea level. Our modeling assumed no marsh migration upslope due to human

  20. A Relationship Between Microbial Activity in Soils and Phosphate Levels in Tributaries to Lake Champlain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Larose, R.; Lee, S.; Lane, T.

    2015-12-01

    Lake Champlain is a large natural freshwater lake. It forms the western boundary of Vermont and drains over half of the state. It is bordered by the state of New York on its western side and drains to the north into Quebec, Canada. Lake Champlain is the source of fresh drinking water for over quarter of a million people and provides for the livelihoods and recreational opportunities of many well beyond its borders. The health of this lake is important. During the summer month's algae blooms plague the lake. These unsightly growths, which affect other aquatic organisms, are the result of excess phosphate flowing into the lake from many sources. Examining whether there is a relationship between microbial activity in the soils bordering tributaries to Lake Champlain and phosphate levels in those tributaries sheds insight into the origins and paths by which phosphate moves into Lake Champlain. Understanding the how phosphate moves into the water system may assist in mitigation efforts.Total Phosphate levels and Total Suspended Solids were measured in second and third order streams in the Lake Champlain Basin over a three-year period. In addition microbial activity was measured within the toe, bank and upland riparian zone areas of these streams during the summer months. In general in areas showing greater microbial activity in the soil(s) there were increased levels of phosphate in the streams.

  1. Managing the financial risk of low water levels in Great Lakes with index-based contracts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meyer, E.; Characklis, G. W.; Brown, C. M.; Moody, P.

    2014-12-01

    Low water levels in the Great Lakes have recently had significant financial impacts on the region's commercial shipping, responsible for transporting millions of dollars' worth of bulk goods each year. Low lake levels can significantly affect shipping firms, as cargo capacity is a function of draft, or the distance between water level and the ship's bottom. Draft increases with weight, and lower lake levels force ships to reduce cargo to prevent running aground in shallow harbors, directly impacting the finances of shipping companies. Risk transfer instruments may provide adaptable, yet unexplored, alternatives for managing these financial risks, at significantly less expense than more traditional solutions (e.g., dredging). Index-based financial instruments can be particularly attractive as contract payouts are directly linked to well-defined transparent metrics (e.g., lake levels), eliminating the need for subjective adjustors, as well as concerns over moral hazard. In developing such instruments, a major challenge is identifying an index that is well correlated with financial losses, and thus a contract that reliably pays out when losses are experienced (low basis risk). In this work, a relationship between lake levels and shipping revenues is developed, and actuarial analyses of the frequency and magnitude of revenue losses is completed using this relationship and synthetic water level data. This analysis is used to develop several types of index-based contracts. A standardized suite of binary contracts is developed, with each indexed to lake levels and priced according to predefined thresholds. These are combined to form portfolios with different objectives (e.g. options, collars), with optimal portfolio structure and length of coverage determined by limiting basis risk and contract cost, using simulations over the historic dataset. Results suggest that portfolios of these binary contracts can substantially reduce the risk of financial losses during periods of

  2. Rising water levels and the future of southeastern Louisiana swamp forests

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Conner, W.H.; Brody, M.

    1989-01-01

    An important factor contributing to the deterioration of wetland forests in Louisiana is increasing water levels resulting from eustatic sea-level rise and subsidence. Analyses of long-term water level records from the Barataria and Verret watersheds in southeastern Louisiana indicate an apparent sea level rise of about 1-m per century, mainly the result of subsidence. Permanent study plots were established in cypress-tupelo stands in these two watersheds. The tree, water level, and subsidence data collected in these plots were entered into the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Servicea??s FORFLO bottomland hardwood succession model to determine the long-term effects of rising water levels on forest structure. Analyses were made of 50a??100 years for a cypress-tupelo swamp site in each basin and a bottomland hardwood ridge in the Verret watershed. As flooding increased, less flood tolerant species were replaced by cypress-tupelo within 50 years. As flooding continued, the sites start to become nonforested. From the test analyses, the FORFLO model seems to be an excellent tool for predicting long-term changes in the swamp habitat of south Louisiana.

  3. Building a Community Framework for Adaptation to Sea Level Rise and Inundation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Culver, M. E.; Schubel, J.; Davidson, M. A.; Haines, J.

    2010-12-01

    Sea level rise and inundation pose a substantial risk to many coastal communities, and the risk is projected to increase because of continued development, changes in the frequency and intensity of inundation events, and acceleration in the rate of sea-level rise. Calls for action at all levels acknowledge that a viable response must engage federal, state and local expertise, perspectives, and resources in a coordinated and collaborative effort. Representatives from a variety of these agencies and organizations have developed a shared framework to help coastal communities structure and facilitate community-wide adaptation processes and to help agencies determine where investments should be made to enable states and local governments to assess impacts and initiate adaptation strategies over the next decade. For sea level rise planning and implementation, the requirements for high-quality data and information are vast and the availability is limited. Participants stressed the importance of data interoperability to ensure that users are able to apply data from a variety of sources and to improve availability and confidence in the data. Participants were able to prioritize the following six categories of data needed to support future sea level rise planning and implementation: - Data to understand land forms and where and how water will flow - Monitoring data and environmental drivers - Consistent sea level rise scenarios and projections across agencies to support local planning - Data to characterize vulnerabilities and impacts of sea level rise - Community characteristics - Legal frameworks and administrative structure. To develop a meaningful and effective sea level rise adaptation plan, state and local planners must understand how the availability, scale, and uncertainty of these types of data will impact new guidelines or adaptation measures. The tools necessary to carry-out the adaptation planning process need to be understood in terms of data requirements

  4. Committed sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action.

    PubMed

    Mengel, Matthias; Nauels, Alexander; Rogelj, Joeri; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich

    2018-02-20

    Sea-level rise is a major consequence of climate change that will continue long after emissions of greenhouse gases have stopped. The 2015 Paris Agreement aims at reducing climate-related risks by reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net zero and limiting global-mean temperature increase. Here we quantify the effect of these constraints on global sea-level rise until 2300, including Antarctic ice-sheet instabilities. We estimate median sea-level rise between 0.7 and 1.2 m, if net-zero greenhouse gas emissions are sustained until 2300, varying with the pathway of emissions during this century. Temperature stabilization below 2 °C is insufficient to hold median sea-level rise until 2300 below 1.5 m. We find that each 5-year delay in near-term peaking of CO 2 emissions increases median year 2300 sea-level rise estimates by ca. 0.2 m, and extreme sea-level rise estimates at the 95th percentile by up to 1 m. Our results underline the importance of near-term mitigation action for limiting long-term sea-level rise risks.

  5. Do we have to take an acceleration of sea level rise into account?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dillingh, D.; Baart, F.; de Ronde, J.

    2012-04-01

    In view of preservation of safety against inundation and of the many values and functions of the coastal zone, coastal retreat is no longer acceptable. That is why it was decided to maintain the Dutch coastline on its position in 1990. Later the preservation concept was extended to the Dutch coastal foundation, which is the area that encompasses all dune area's and hard sea defences and reaches seawards until the 20m depth contour line. Present Dutch coastal policy is to grow with sea level by means of sand nourishments. A main issue for the planning of sand nourishments is the rate of sea level rise, because that is the main parameter for the volume of the sand needed. The question is than relevant if we already have to take into account an acceleration of sea level rise. Six stations with long water level records, well spread along the Dutch coast, were analysed. Correction of the measured data was considered necessary for an adaptation of the NAP in 2005 as a consequence of movements of the top of the pleistoceen, on which the NAP bench marks have been founded, and for the 18.6 year (nodal) cycle in the time series of yearly mean sea levels. It has been concluded that along the Dutch coast no significant acceleration of sea level rise could be detected yet. Over the last 120 years sea level rose with an average speed of 19 cm per century relative to NAP (the Dutch ordnance datum). Time series shorter than about 50 years showed less robust estimates of sea level rise. Future sea level rise also needs consideration in view of the estimate of future sand nourishment volumes. Scenario's for sea level rise have been derived for the years 2050 and 2100 relative to 1990 by the KNMI (Dutch Met Office) in 2006 for the Dutch situation. Plausible curves have been drawn from 1990 tangent to the linear regression line in 1990 and forced through the high and low scenario projections for 2050 and 2100. These curves show discrepancies with measurements of the last decade

  6. Wetland Responses to Sea Level Rise in the Northern Gulf of Mexico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alizad, K.; Bilskie, M. V.; Hagen, S. C.; Medeiros, S. C.; Morris, J. T.

    2016-12-01

    Coastal regions are vulnerable to flood risk due to climate change, sea level rise, and wetland losses. The Northern Gulf of Mexico (NGOM) is a region in which extreme events are projected to be more intense under climate change and sea level rise scenarios [Wang et al., 2013; Bilskie et al., 2014]. Considering increased frequency and intensity of coastal flooding, wetlands are valuable natural resources that protect shorelines by dissipating waves and storm surges [Costanza et al., 2008]. Therefore, it is critical to investigate the response of salt marsh systems in different estuaries to sea level rise in the NGOM and their effects on storm surges to inform coastal managers to choose effective restoration plans. This research applies the coupled Hydro-MEM model [Alizad et al., 2016] to study three different estuarine systems in the NGOM. The model incorporates both sea level rise rate and feedbacks between physics and biology by coupling a hydrodynamic (ADCIRC) and salt marsh (MEM) model. The results of the model provide tidal hydrodynamics and biomass density change under four sea level rise projections during a 100-year period. The results are used to investigate marsh migration path in the estuarine systems. In addition, this study shows how marsh migration and biomass density change can impact storm surge modeling. The results imply the broader impacts of sea level rise on the estuarine systems in the NGOM. ReferencesAlizad, K., S. C. Hagen, J. T. Morris, P. Bacopoulos, M. V. Bilskie, J. Weishampel, and S. C. Medeiros (2016), A coupled, two-dimensional hydrodynamic-marsh model with biological feedback, Ecological Modeling, 327, 29-43. Bilskie, M. V., S. C. Hagen, S. C. Medeiros, and D. L. Passeri (2014), Dynamics of sea level rise and coastal flooding on a changing landscape, Geophysical Research Letters, 41(3), 927-934. Costanza, R., O. Pérez-Maqueo, M. L. Martinez, P. Sutton, S. J. Anderson, and K. Mulder (2008), The Value of Coastal Wetlands for Hurricane

  7. A multi-source satellite data approach for modelling Lake Turkana water level: Calibration and validation using satellite altimetry data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Velpuri, N.M.; Senay, G.B.; Asante, K.O.

    2012-01-01

    Lake Turkana is one of the largest desert lakes in the world and is characterized by high degrees of interand intra-annual fluctuations. The hydrology and water balance of this lake have not been well understood due to its remote location and unavailability of reliable ground truth datasets. Managing surface water resources is a great challenge in areas where in-situ data are either limited or unavailable. In this study, multi-source satellite-driven data such as satellite-based rainfall estimates, modelled runoff, evapotranspiration, and a digital elevation dataset were used to model Lake Turkana water levels from 1998 to 2009. Due to the unavailability of reliable lake level data, an approach is presented to calibrate and validate the water balance model of Lake Turkana using a composite lake level product of TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, and ENVISAT satellite altimetry data. Model validation results showed that the satellitedriven water balance model can satisfactorily capture the patterns and seasonal variations of the Lake Turkana water level fluctuations with a Pearson's correlation coefficient of 0.90 and a Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient of Efficiency (NSCE) of 0.80 during the validation period (2004-2009). Model error estimates were within 10% of the natural variability of the lake. Our analysis indicated that fluctuations in Lake Turkana water levels are mainly driven by lake inflows and over-the-lake evaporation. Over-the-lake rainfall contributes only up to 30% of lake evaporative demand. During the modelling time period, Lake Turkana showed seasonal variations of 1-2m. The lake level fluctuated in the range up to 4m between the years 1998-2009. This study demonstrated the usefulness of satellite altimetry data to calibrate and validate the satellite-driven hydrological model for Lake Turkana without using any in-situ data. Furthermore, for Lake Turkana, we identified and outlined opportunities and challenges of using a calibrated satellite-driven water balance

  8. Coastal sensitivity to sea level rise : a focus on the mid-atlantic region

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2009-01-15

    The focus of this product is to identify and review the potential impacts of future sea-level rise based on present scientific understanding. To do so, this product evaluates : several aspects of sea-level rise impacts to the natural environment and ...

  9. Increasing Resilience Through Engagement In Sea Level Rise Community Science Initiatives.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chilton, L. A.; Rindge, H.

    2017-12-01

    Science literate and engaged members of the public, including students, are critical to building climate resilient communities. USC Sea Grant facilitates programs that work to build and strengthen these connections. The Urban Tides Community Science Initiative (Urban Tides) and the Youth Exploring Sea Level Rise Science Program (YESS) engage communities across the boundaries of public engagement, K-12 education, and informal education. YESS is an experiential sea level rise education program that combines classroom learning, field investigations and public presentations. Students explore sea level rise using a new curricula, collect their own data on sea level rise, develop communication products, and present their findings to city governments, researchers, and others. Urban Tides engages community members, informal education centers, K-12 students, and local government leaders in a citizen science program photo- documenting extreme high tides, erosion and coastal flooding in Southern California. Images provide critical information to help calibrate scientific models used to identify locations vulnerable to damage from future sea level rise. These tools and information enable community leaders and local governments to set priorities, guidelines, and update policies as they plan strategies that will help the region adapt. The program includes a mobile app for data collection, an open database to view photos, a lesson plan, and community beach walks. Urban Tides has led to an increase in data and data-gathering capacity for regional scientists, an increase in public participation in science, and an increase in ocean and climate literacy among initiative participants. Both of these programs bring informed and diverse voices into the discussion of how to adapt and build climate resilient communities. USC Sea Grant will share impacts and lessons learned from these two unique programs.

  10. Mass and volume contributions to twentieth-century global sea level rise.

    PubMed

    Miller, Laury; Douglas, Bruce C

    2004-03-25

    The rate of twentieth-century global sea level rise and its causes are the subjects of intense controversy. Most direct estimates from tide gauges give 1.5-2.0 mm yr(-1), whereas indirect estimates based on the two processes responsible for global sea level rise, namely mass and volume change, fall far below this range. Estimates of the volume increase due to ocean warming give a rate of about 0.5 mm yr(-1) (ref. 8) and the rate due to mass increase, primarily from the melting of continental ice, is thought to be even smaller. Therefore, either the tide gauge estimates are too high, as has been suggested recently, or one (or both) of the mass and volume estimates is too low. Here we present an analysis of sea level measurements at tide gauges combined with observations of temperature and salinity in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans close to the gauges. We find that gauge-determined rates of sea level rise, which encompass both mass and volume changes, are two to three times higher than the rates due to volume change derived from temperature and salinity data. Our analysis supports earlier studies that put the twentieth-century rate in the 1.5-2.0 mm yr(-1) range, but more importantly it suggests that mass increase plays a larger role than ocean warming in twentieth-century global sea level rise.

  11. Sea-level rise and shoreline retreat: time to abandon the Bruun Rule

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cooper, J. Andrew G.; Pilkey, Orrin H.

    2004-11-01

    In the face of a global rise in sea level, understanding the response of the shoreline to changes in sea level is a critical scientific goal to inform policy makers and managers. A body of scientific information exists that illustrates both the complexity of the linkages between sea-level rise and shoreline response, and the comparative lack of understanding of these linkages. In spite of the lack of understanding, many appraisals have been undertaken that employ a concept known as the "Bruun Rule". This is a simple two-dimensional model of shoreline response to rising sea level. The model has seen near global application since its original formulation in 1954. The concept provided an advance in understanding of the coastal system at the time of its first publication. It has, however, been superseded by numerous subsequent findings and is now invalid. Several assumptions behind the Bruun Rule are known to be false and nowhere has the Bruun Rule been adequately proven; on the contrary several studies disprove it in the field. No universally applicable model of shoreline retreat under sea-level rise has yet been developed. Despite this, the Bruun Rule is in widespread contemporary use at a global scale both as a management tool and as a scientific concept. The persistence of this concept beyond its original assumption base is attributed to the following factors: Appeal of a simple, easy to use analytical model that is in widespread use. Difficulty of determining the relative validity of 'proofs' and 'disproofs'. Ease of application. Positive advocacy by some scientists. Application by other scientists without critical appraisal. The simple numerical expression of the model. Lack of easy alternatives. The Bruun Rule has no power for predicting shoreline behaviour under rising sea level and should be abandoned. It is a concept whose time has passed. The belief by policy makers that it offers a prediction of future shoreline position may well have stifled much

  12. A digital terrain model of bathymetry and shallow-zone bottom-substrate classification for Spednic Lake and estimates of lake-level-dependent habitat to support smallmouth bass persistence modeling

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dudley, Robert W.; Schalk, Charles W.; Stasulis, Nicholas W.; Trial, Joan G.

    2011-01-01

    In 2009, the U.S. Geological Survey entered into a cooperative agreement with the International Joint Commission, St. Croix River Board to do an analysis of historical smallmouth bass habitat as a function of lake level for Spednic Lake in an effort to quantify the effects, if any, of historical lake-level management and meteorological conditions (from 1970 to 2009) on smallmouth bass year-class failure. The analysis requires estimating habitat availability as a function of lake level during spawning periods from 1970 to 2009, which is documented in this report. Field work was done from October 19 to 23, and from November 2 to 10, 2009, to acquire acoustic bathymetric (depth) data and acoustic data indicating the character of the surficial lake-bottom sediments. Historical lake-level data during smallmouth bass spawning (May-June) were applied to the bathymetric and surficial-sediment type data sets to produce annual historic estimates of smallmouth-bass-spawning-habitat area. Results show that minimum lake level during the spawning period explained most of the variability (R2 = 0.89) in available spawning habitat for nearshore areas of shallow slope (less than 10 degrees) on the basis of linear correlation. The change in lake level during the spawning period explained most of the variability (R2 = 0.90) in available spawning habitat for areas of steeper slopes (10 to 40 degrees) on the basis of linear correlation. The next step in modeling historic smallmouth bass year-class persistence is to combine this analysis of the effects of lake-level management on habitat availability with meteorological conditions.

  13. Mangrove sedimentation and response to relative sea-level rise

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Woodroffe, CD; Rogers, K.; Mckee, Karen L.; Lovelock, CE; Mendelssohn, IA; Saintilan, N.

    2016-01-01

    Mangroves occur on upper intertidal shorelines in the tropics and subtropics. Complex hydrodynamic and salinity conditions influence mangrove distributions, primarily related to elevation and hydroperiod; this review considers how these adjust through time. Accumulation rates of allochthonous and autochthonous sediment, both inorganic and organic, vary between and within different settings. Abundant terrigenous sediment can form dynamic mudbanks; tides redistribute sediment, contrasting with mangrove peat in sediment-starved carbonate settings. Sediments underlying mangroves sequester carbon, but also contain paleoenvironmental records of adjustments to past sea-level changes. Radiometric dating indicates long-term sedimentation, whereas Surface Elevation Table-Marker Horizon measurements (SET-MH) provide shorter perspectives, indicating shallow subsurface processes of root growth and substrate autocompaction. Many tropical deltas also experience deep subsidence, which augments relative sea-level rise. The persistence of mangroves implies an ability to cope with moderately high rates of relative sea-level rise. However, many human pressures threaten mangroves, resulting in continuing decline in their extent throughout the tropics.

  14. Fluctuation history of Great Salt Lake, Utah, during the last 13,000 years, part 2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Murchison, Stuart B.

    1989-01-01

    Great Salt Lake level fluctuations from 13,000 yr B.P. to the present were interpreted by examination of shoreline geomorphic features, shoreline deposits, archeologic sites, isotopic data, and palynologic data. After the conclusion of the Bonneville paleolake cycle, between 13,000 and 12,000 yr B.P. the lake regressed to levels low enough to deposit a littoral oxidized red bed stratum and a pelagic Glauber's salt layer. A late Pleistocene lake cycle occurred between 12,000 and 10,000 yr B.P. depositing several beaches, the highest reaching an altitude of about 4250 ft (1295.3 m). The lake regressed after 10,000 yr B.P., only to rise to 4230 ft (1289.2 m) between 9700 and 9400 yr B.P. and then gradually lower at least 15 ft (4.5 m) or more. Lake levels fluctuated between 4212 and 4180 ft (1284 and 1274 m) for the next 4000 years. A late Holocene lake cycle, constrained by radiocarbon ages between 3440 and 1400 yr B.P., is reported at a highest static level of 4221 ft (1286.5 m). After a lake level drop to altitudes ranging between 4210 and 4205 ft (1283.2 and 1281.6 m), a 4217 ft (1285.7 m) level was reached after 400 yr B.P. This level lowered to 4214 ft (1284.4 m) in the mid to late 1700 s A.D. The lake levels have since stabilized aroung a 4200 ft (1280 m) mean.

  15. US power plant sites at risk of future sea-level rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bierkandt, R.; Auffhammer, M.; Levermann, A.

    2015-12-01

    Unmitigated greenhouse gas emissions may increase global mean sea-level by about 1 meter during this century. Such elevation of the mean sea-level enhances the risk of flooding of coastal areas. We compute the power capacity that is currently out-of-reach of a 100-year coastal flooding but will be exposed to such a flood by the end of the century for different US states, if no adaptation measures are taken. The additional exposed capacity varies strongly among states. For Delaware it is 80% of the mean generated power load. For New York this number is 63% and for Florida 43%. The capacity that needs additional protection compared to today increases by more than 250% for Texas, 90% for Florida and 70% for New York. Current development in power plant building points towards a reduced future exposure to sea-level rise: proposed and planned power plants are less exposed than those which are currently operating. However, power plants that have been retired or canceled were less exposed than those operating at present. If sea-level rise is properly accounted for in future planning, an adaptation to sea-level rise may be costly but possible.

  16. Allowances for evolving coastal flood risk under uncertain local sea-level rise

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Buchanan, Maya K.; Kopp, Robert E.; Oppenheimer, Michael

    Estimates of future flood hazards made under the assumption of stationary mean sea level are biased low due to sea-level rise (SLR). However, adjustments to flood return levels made assuming fixed increases of sea level are also inadequate when applied to sea level that is rising over time at an uncertain rate. SLR allowances—the height adjustment from historic flood levels that maintain under uncertainty the annual expected probability of flooding—are typically estimated independently of individual decision-makers’ preferences, such as time horizon, risk tolerance, and confidence in SLR projections.We provide a framework of SLR allowances that employs complete probability distributions ofmore » local SLR and a range of user-defined flood risk management preferences. Given non-stationary and uncertain sea-level rise, these metrics provide estimates of flood protection heights and offsets for different planning horizons in coastal areas. In conclusion, we illustrate the calculation of various allowance types for a set of long-duration tide gauges along U.S. coastlines.« less

  17. Allowances for evolving coastal flood risk under uncertain local sea-level rise

    DOE PAGES

    Buchanan, Maya K.; Kopp, Robert E.; Oppenheimer, Michael; ...

    2016-06-03

    Estimates of future flood hazards made under the assumption of stationary mean sea level are biased low due to sea-level rise (SLR). However, adjustments to flood return levels made assuming fixed increases of sea level are also inadequate when applied to sea level that is rising over time at an uncertain rate. SLR allowances—the height adjustment from historic flood levels that maintain under uncertainty the annual expected probability of flooding—are typically estimated independently of individual decision-makers’ preferences, such as time horizon, risk tolerance, and confidence in SLR projections.We provide a framework of SLR allowances that employs complete probability distributions ofmore » local SLR and a range of user-defined flood risk management preferences. Given non-stationary and uncertain sea-level rise, these metrics provide estimates of flood protection heights and offsets for different planning horizons in coastal areas. In conclusion, we illustrate the calculation of various allowance types for a set of long-duration tide gauges along U.S. coastlines.« less

  18. Habitability at the frontlines of sea level rise: a spatiotemporal analysis of settlements and coastal inundation in eight global sea level rise hotspots between 1990 and 2015

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rose, S. A.; Wrathall, D.

    2017-12-01

    Over the coming centuries and millennia, sea level rise will greatly redistribute global human population through displacement and migration. Sudden, large-scale displacement is extremely disruptive to society both for migrants and host communities, and there is a great scientific and policy need to anticipate where, when and how this could happen around sea level rise. We can meet these needs by examining how long-term coastal inundation of settlements has already occurred. Using two global geospatial data sets, the Global Human Settlement Layer and the Global Surface Water Layer, we examine the global spatial concentration of settlement inundation that occurred between 1990 and 2015. We focus on the eight sea level rise hotspots identified in Clark et al (2016), which include Bangladesh, Mekong Delta, Indonesia, Japan, Nile Delta, Philippines, and the US Mid-Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico, and examine areas of convergence between settlement loss density and negative population change. This analysis reveals specific areas of concern within vulnerable countries, and forms the basis for focused investigations of the long-term impact of coastal inundation on various migration systems. This analysis shows us how long-term sets of satellite derived data on human population can help anticipate how sea level rise will alter future patterns of human settlement and migration into the 21st century and beyond.

  19. Monitoring of Water-Level Fluctuation of Lake Nasser Using Altimetry Satellite Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    El-Shirbeny, Mohammed A.; Abutaleb, Khaled A.

    2018-05-01

    Apart from the Renaissance Dam and other constructed dams on the River Nile tributaries, Egypt is classified globally as a state of scarce water. Egypt's water resources are very limited and do not contribute a significant amount to its water share except the River Nile (55.5 billion m3/year). While the number of population increases every year, putting more stress on these limited resources. This study aims to use remote-sensing data to assess the change in surface area and water-level variation in Lake Nasser using remote-sensing data from Landsat-8 and altimetry data. In addition, it investigates the use of thermal data from Landsat-8 to calculate water loss based on evaporation from Lake Nasser. The eight Landsat-8 satellite images were used to study the change in surface area of Lake Nasser representing winter (January) and summer (June/July) seasons in two consecutive years (2015 and 2016). Time series analyses for 10-day temporal resolution water-level data from Jason-2/OSTM and Jason-3 altimetry was carried out to investigate water-level trends over the long term (1993 and 2016) and short term (2015-2016) in correspondence with the change of the surface area. Results indicated a shrink in the lake surface area in 2016 of approximately 14% compared to the 2015 area. In addition, the evaporation rate in the lake is very high causing a loss of approximately 20% of the total water share from the river Nile.

  20. Mapping lake level changes using ICESat/GLAS satellite laser altimetry data: a case study in arid regions of central Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, JunLi; Fang, Hui; Yang, Liao

    2011-12-01

    Lakes in arid regions of Central Asia act as essential components of regional water cycles, providing sparse but valuable water resource for the fragile ecological environments and human lives. Lakes in Central Asia are sensitive to climate change and human activities, and great changes have been found since 1960s. Mapping and monitoring these inland lakes would improve our understanding of mechanism of lake dynamics and climatic impacts. ICESat/GLAS satellite laser altimetry provides an efficient tool of continuously measuring lake levels in these poorly surveyed remote areas. An automated mapping scheme of lake level changes is developed based on GLAS altimetry products, and the spatial and temporal characteristics of 9 typical lakes in Central Asia are analyzed to validate the level accuracies. The results show that ICESat/GLAS has a good performance of lake level monitoring, whose patterns of level changes are the same as those of field observation, and the max differences between GLAS and field data is 3cm. Based on the results, it is obvious that alpine lakes are increasing greatly in lake levels during 2003-2009 due to climate change, while open lakes with dams and plain endorheic lakes decrease dramatically in water levels due to human activities, which reveals the overexploitation of water resource in Central Asia.

  1. Modeled Tradeoffs between Developed Land Protection and Tidal Habitat Maintenance during Rising Sea Levels

    PubMed Central

    Cadol, Daniel; Elmore, Andrew J.; Guinn, Steven M.; Engelhardt, Katharina A. M.; Sanders, Geoffrey

    2016-01-01

    Tidal habitats host a diversity of species and provide hydrological services such as shoreline protection and nutrient attenuation. Accretion of sediment and biomass enables tidal marshes and swamps to grow vertically, providing a degree of resilience to rising sea levels. Even if accelerating sea level rise overcomes this vertical resilience, tidal habitats have the potential to migrate inland as they continue to occupy land that falls within the new tide range elevations. The existence of developed land inland of tidal habitats, however, may prevent this migration as efforts are often made to dyke and protect developments. To test the importance of inland migration to maintaining tidal habitat abundance under a range of potential rates of sea level rise, we developed a spatially explicit elevation tracking and habitat switching model, dubbed the Marsh Accretion and Inundation Model (MAIM), which incorporates elevation-dependent net land surface elevation gain functions. We applied the model to the metropolitan Washington, DC region, finding that the abundance of small National Park Service units and other public open space along the tidal Potomac River system provides a refuge to which tidal habitats may retreat to maintain total habitat area even under moderate sea level rise scenarios (0.7 m and 1.1 m rise by 2100). Under a severe sea level rise scenario associated with ice sheet collapse (1.7 m by 2100) habitat area is maintained only if no development is protected from rising water. If all existing development is protected, then 5%, 10%, and 40% of the total tidal habitat area is lost by 2100 for the three sea level rise scenarios tested. PMID:27788209

  2. Modeled Tradeoffs between Developed Land Protection and Tidal Habitat Maintenance during Rising Sea Levels.

    PubMed

    Cadol, Daniel; Elmore, Andrew J; Guinn, Steven M; Engelhardt, Katharina A M; Sanders, Geoffrey

    2016-01-01

    Tidal habitats host a diversity of species and provide hydrological services such as shoreline protection and nutrient attenuation. Accretion of sediment and biomass enables tidal marshes and swamps to grow vertically, providing a degree of resilience to rising sea levels. Even if accelerating sea level rise overcomes this vertical resilience, tidal habitats have the potential to migrate inland as they continue to occupy land that falls within the new tide range elevations. The existence of developed land inland of tidal habitats, however, may prevent this migration as efforts are often made to dyke and protect developments. To test the importance of inland migration to maintaining tidal habitat abundance under a range of potential rates of sea level rise, we developed a spatially explicit elevation tracking and habitat switching model, dubbed the Marsh Accretion and Inundation Model (MAIM), which incorporates elevation-dependent net land surface elevation gain functions. We applied the model to the metropolitan Washington, DC region, finding that the abundance of small National Park Service units and other public open space along the tidal Potomac River system provides a refuge to which tidal habitats may retreat to maintain total habitat area even under moderate sea level rise scenarios (0.7 m and 1.1 m rise by 2100). Under a severe sea level rise scenario associated with ice sheet collapse (1.7 m by 2100) habitat area is maintained only if no development is protected from rising water. If all existing development is protected, then 5%, 10%, and 40% of the total tidal habitat area is lost by 2100 for the three sea level rise scenarios tested.

  3. Correlation of Late-Pleistocene Lake-Level Oscillations in Mono Lake, California, with North Atlantic Climate Events

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Benson, L.V.; Lund, S.P.; Burdett, J.W.; Kashgarian, Michaele; Rose, T.P.; Smoot, J.P.; Schwartz, M.

    1998-01-01

    Oxygen-18 (18O) values of sediment from the Wilson Creek Formation, Mono Basin, California, indicate three scales of temporal variation (Dansgaard-Oeschger, Heinrich, and Milankovitch) in the hydrologic balance of Mono Lake between 35,400 and 12,900 14C yr B.P. During this interval, Mono Lake experienced four lowstands each lasting from 1000 to 2000 yr. The youngest low-stand, which occurred between 15,500 and 14,000 14C yr B.P., was nearly synchronous with a desiccation of Owens Lake, California. Paleomagnetic secular variation (PSV) data indicate that three of four persistent lowstands occurred at the same times as Heinrich events H1, H2, and H4. 18O data indicate the two highest lake levels occurred ???18,000 and ???13,100 14C yr B.P., corresponding to passages of the mean position of the polar jet stream over the Mono Basin. Extremely low values of total inorganic carbon between 26,000 and 14,000 14C yr B.P. indicate glacial activity, corresponding to a time when summer insolation was much reduced. ?? 1998 University of Washington.

  4. Great Lakes

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2017-12-08

    Bands of lake effect snow drift eastward from the western Great Lakes in this true-color image captured by the NOAA/NASA Suomi NPP satellite's Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) instrument on January 5, 2017. National Weather Service forecasters expect light to moderate lake effect snow showers to continue throughout the day today and into Saturday (1/7). Lake-effect snow forms when cold air passes over the warmer waters of a lake. This causes some lake water to evaporate into the air and warm it. This warmer, wetter air rises and cools as it moves away from the lake. When it cools, it releases that moisture and, if it’s cold enough, that moisture turns into snow. Although true-color images like this may appear to be photographs of Earth, they aren't. They are created by combining data from the three color channels on the VIIRS instrument sensitive to the red, green and blue (or RGB) wavelengths of light into one composite image. In addition, data from several other channels are often also included to cancel out or correct atmospheric interference that may blur parts of the image. Credit: NOAA/NASA/Suomi NPP via NOAA's Environmental Visualization Laboratory

  5. Simulating reef response to sea-level rise at Lizard Island: A geospatial approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamylton, S. M.; Leon, J. X.; Saunders, M. I.; Woodroffe, C. D.

    2014-10-01

    Sea-level rise will result in changes in water depth over coral reefs, which will influence reef platform growth as a result of carbonate production and accretion. This study simulates the pattern of reef response on the reefs around Lizard Island in the northern Great Barrier Reef. Two sea-level rise scenarios are considered to capture the range of likely projections: 0.5 m and 1.2 m above 1990 levels by 2100. Reef topography has been established through extensive bathymetric profiling, together with available data, including LiDAR, single beam bathymetry, multibeam swath bathymetry, LADS and digitised chart data. The reef benthic cover around Lizard Island has been classified using a high resolution WorldView-2 satellite image, which is calibrated and validated against a ground referencing dataset of 364 underwater video records of the reef benthic character. Accretion rates are parameterised using published hydrochemical measurements taken in-situ and rules are applied using Boolean logic to incorporate geomorphological transitions associated with different depth ranges, such as recolonisation of the reef flat when it becomes inundated as sea level rises. Simulations indicate a variable platform response to the different sea-level rise scenarios. For the 0.5 m rise, the shallower reef flats are gradually colonised by corals, enabling this active geomorphological zone to keep up with the lower rate of rise while the other sand dominated areas get progressively deeper. In the 1.2 m scenario, a similar pattern is evident for the first 30 years of rise, beyond which the whole reef platform begins to slowly drown. To provide insight on reef response to sea-level rise in other areas, simulation results of four different reef settings are discussed and compared at the southeast reef flat (barrier reef), Coconut Beach (fringing reef), Watson's Bay (leeward bay with coral patches) and Mangrove Beach (sheltered lagoonal embayment). The reef sites appear to accrete upwards

  6. Tracking the History and Ecological Changes of Rising Double-Crested Cormorant Populations Using Pond Sediments from Islands in Eastern Lake Ontario.

    PubMed

    Stewart, Emily M; Michelutti, Neal; Shenstone-Harris, Sarah; Grooms, Christopher; Weseloh, Chip; Kimpe, Linda E; Blais, Jules M; Smol, John P

    2015-01-01

    In the Laurentian Great Lakes region, the double-crested cormorant (Phalacrocorax auritus) has seen a thousand-fold population increase in recent decades. These large colonies of birds now often conflict with socioeconomic interests, particularly due to perceived competition with fisheries and the destruction of terrestrial vegetation in nesting habitats. Here we use dated sediment cores from ponds on islands in eastern Lake Ontario that receive waste inputs from dense colonies of cormorants and ring-billed gulls (Larus delawarensis) to chronicle the population rise of these species and assess their long-term ecological impacts. Modern water chemistry sampling from these sites reveals drastically elevated nutrient and major ion concentrations compared to reference ponds not influenced by waterbirds. Geochemical tracers in dated sediment cores, particularly δ15N and chlorophyll-a concentrations, track waterbird influences over time. Fossil diatom assemblages were dominated by species tolerant of hyper-eutrophic and polluted systems, which is in marked contrast to assemblages in reference sites. In addition to establishing long-term ecological impacts, this multi-proxy paleoecological approach can be used to determine whether islands of concern have been long-term nesting sites or were only recently colonized by cormorant or ring-billed gull populations across the Great Lakes, facilitating informed management decisions about controversial culling programs.

  7. A multi-level strategy for anticipating future glacier lake formation and associated hazard potentials

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frey, Holger; Haeberli, Wilfried; Huggel, Christian; Linsbauer, Andreas

    2010-05-01

    Due to the expected atmospheric warming, mountain glaciers will retreat, potentially collapse or even vanish completely during the 21st century. When overdeepened parts of the glacier bed are exposed in the course of glacier retreat, glacier lakes can form. Such lakes have a potential for hydropower production, which is an important source of renewable energy. Furthermore they are important elements in the perception of high-mountain landscapes and they can compensate the loss of landscape attractiveness from glacier shrinkage to a certain degree. However, glacier lakes are also a potential source of serious flood and debris flow hazards, especially in densely populated mountain ranges. Thus, methods for early detection of sites with potential lake formation are important for early planning and development of protection concepts. In this contribution we present a multi-scale approach to detect sites with potential future lake formation on four different levels of detail. The methods are developed, tested and - as far as possible - verified in the Swiss Alps; but they can be applied to mountain regions all over the world. On a first level, potential overdeepenings are estimated by selecting flat parts (slope < 5°) of the current glacier surface based on a digital elevation model (DEM) and digital glacier outlines. The same input data are used on the second level for a manual detection of overdeepenings, which are expected at locations where the following three criteria apply: (a) A distinct increase of the glacier surface slope in down-glacier direction; (b) an enlarged width followed by a narrow glacier part; and (c) regions with compressive flow (no crevasses) followed by extending flow (heavily crevassed). On the third level, more sophisticated approaches to model the glacier bed topography are applied to get more quantitative information on potential future lakes. Based on the results of this level, scenarios of future lake outbursts can be modeled with simple

  8. Sea-level rise in New Jersey over the past 5000 years: Implications to anthropogenic changes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Miller, Kenneth G.; Sugarman, Peter J.; Browning, James V.; Horton, Benjamin P.; Stanley, Alissa; Kahn, Alicia; Uptegrove, Jane; Aucott, Michael

    2009-01-01

    We present a mid to late Holocene sea-level record derived from drilling the New Jersey coast that shows a relatively constant rise of 1.8??mm/yr from ~ 5000 to 500 calibrated calendar years before present (yrBP). This contrasts with previous New Jersey estimates that showed only 0.5??mm/yr rise since 2000??yrBP. Comparison with other Mid-Atlantic sea-level records (Delaware to southern New England) indicates surprising uniformity considering different proximities to the peripheral bulge of the Laurentide ice sheet, with a relative rise throughout the region of ~ 1.7-1.9??mm/yr since ~ 5000??yrBP. This regional sea-level rise includes both: 1) global sea-level (eustatic) rise; and 2) far-field geoidal subsidence (estimated as ~ 0.8-1.4??mm/yr today) due to removal of the Laurentide ice sheet and water loading. Correcting for geoidal subsidence, the U.S. east coast records suggest a global sea-level (eustatic) rise of ~ 0.4-1.0??mm/yr (with a best estimate of 0.7 ?? 0.3??mm/yr) since 5000??yrBP. Comparison with other records provides a best estimate of pre-anthropogenic global sea-level rise of < 1.0??mm/yr from 5000 until ~ 200??yrBP. Tide gauge data indicate a 20th century rate of eustatic rise of 1.8??mm/yr, whereas both tide gauge and satellite data suggest an increase in the rate of rise to ~ 3.3??mm/yr from 1993-2006 AD. This indicates that the modern rise (~ 3.3??mm/yr) is significantly higher than the pre-anthropogenic rise (0.7 ?? 0.3??mm/yr). ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Regional Analysis of the Hazard Level of Glacial Lakes in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chisolm, Rachel E.; Jhon Sanchez Leon, Walter; McKinney, Daene C.; Cochachin Rapre, Alejo

    2016-04-01

    The Cordillera Blanca mountain range is the highest in Peru and contains many of the world's tropical glaciers. This region is severely impacted by climate change causing accelerated glacier retreat. Secondary impacts of climate change on glacier retreat include stress on water resources and the risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) from the many lakes that are forming and growing at the base of glaciers. A number of GLOFs originating from lakes in the Cordillera Blanca have occurred over the last century, several of which have had catastrophic impacts on cities and communities downstream. Glaciologists and engineers in Peru have been studying the lakes of the Cordillera Blanca for many years and have identified several lakes that are considered dangerous. However, a systematic analysis of all the lakes in the Cordillera Blanca has never before been attempted. Some methodologies for this type of systematic analysis have been proposed (eg. Emmer and Vilimek 2014; Wang, et al. 2011), but as yet they have only been applied to a few select lakes in the Cordillera Blanca. This study uses remotely sensed data to study all of the lakes of the Glacial Lake Inventory published by the Glaciology and Water Resources Unit of Peru's National Water Authority (UGRH 2011). The objective of this study is to assign a level of potential hazard to each glacial lake in the Cordillera Blanca and to ascertain if any of the lakes beyond those that have already been studied might pose a danger to nearby populations. A number of parameters of analysis, both quantitative and qualitative, have been selected to assess the hazard level of each glacial lake in the Cordillera Blanca using digital elevation models, satellite imagery, and glacier outlines. These parameters are then combined to come up with a preliminary assessment of the hazard level of each lake; the equation weighting each parameter draws on previously published methodologies but is tailored to the regional characteristics

  10. Quantifying and Projecting Relative Sea-Level Rise in The Deltaic Regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shum, C. K.; Chung-Yen, K.; Calmant, S.; Yang, T. Y.; Guo, Q.; Jia, Y.; Ballu, V.; Guo, J.; Karptychev, M.; Krien, Y.; Kusche, J.; Tseng, K. H.; Wan, J.; Uebbing, B.

    2017-12-01

    Half of the world's population lives within 200 km of coastlines. Accelerated sea-level rise, compounded by effects of population growth, severe land subsidence due to fluvial sediment compaction/load, and anthropogenic oil and natural gas and ground water extraction, tectonic motion, and the increasing threat of more intense and more frequent cyclone-driven storm surges, have exacerbated the vulnerability of many of world's deltaic regions, including the Bangladesh and the Mississippi River Deltas. At present, understanding and quantifying the natural and anthropogenic processes governing these solid Earth vertical motion processes remain elusive to enable addressing coastal vulnerability due to current and future projection of relative sea-level rise for deltaic regions at the regional scales. Bangladesh, a low-lying and one of the most densely populated countries in the world located at the Bay of Bengal, is prone to transboundary monsoonal flooding, and is believed to be aggravated by more frequent and intensified cyclones resulting from anthropogenic climate change. The Mississippi River Deltaic region has been severely subsiding due primarily to fluvial sediment compaction and load during the last 10 centuries, oil/gas and groundwater extractions, and commercial developments, making it vulnerable to sea-level rise hazards. Here we present results of global geocentric sea-level rise, 1950-2016, separating vertical land motion at global tide gauge datum, by integrating tide gauge and radar altimeter records in a novel sea-level reconstruction scheme, focusing on the Mississippi River and the Bangladesh Deltas. We then integrate the resulting sea level estimates with historic imageries, GPS and InSAR data, as well as sediment isostatic and load model predicted present-day land subsidence, to constrain the 3D land motion to study the impacts of various scenarios of future relative sea level projections on the Bangladesh Delta to the end of the 21st Century and

  11. PATTERNS OF LAKE HYDROLOGIC CHARACTERISTICS RELATED TO WATER LEVEL DRAWDOWN ACROSS THE CONTERMINOUS U.S.

    EPA Science Inventory

    Lake hydrologic characteristics related to water levels, such as drawdown distance and evaporative water loss, affect the physical, chemical, and biological condition of lakes. Disturbances such as water withdrawal and changing climate may alter water-level regimes and impact lak...

  12. Experimental investigation of channel avulsion frequency on river deltas under rising sea levels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Silvestre, J.; Chadwick, A. J.; Steele, S.; Lamb, M. P.

    2017-12-01

    River deltas are low-relief landscapes that are socioeconomically important; they are home to over half a billion people worldwide. Many deltas are built by cycles of lobe growth punctuated by abrupt channel shifts, or avulsions, which often reoccur at a similar location and with a regular frequency. Previous experimental work has investigated the effect of hydrodynamic backwater in controlling channel avulsion location and timing on deltas under constant sea level conditions, but it is unclear how sea-level rise impacts avulsion dynamics. We present results from a flume experiment designed to isolate the role of relative sea-level rise on the evolution of a backwater-influenced delta. The experiment was conducted in the river-ocean facility at Caltech, where a 7m long, 14cm wide alluvial river drains into a 6m by 3m "ocean" basin. The experimental delta grew under subcritical flow, a persistent backwater zone, and a range of sea level rise rates. Without sea level rise, lobe progradation produced in-channel aggradation and periodic avulsions every 3.6 ± 0.9 hours, which corresponded to when channels aggraded to approximately one-half of their flow depth. With a modest rate of sea-level rise (0.25 mm/hr), we observed enhanced aggradation in the backwater zone, causing channels to aggrade more quickly and avulse more frequently (every 2.1 ± 0.6 hours). In future work, we expect further increases in the rate of relative sea-level rise to cause avulsion frequency to decrease as the delta drowns and the backwater zone retreats upstream. Experimental results can serve as tests of numerical models that are needed for hazard mitigation and coastal sustainability efforts on drowning deltas.

  13. What happens to near-shore habitat when lake and reservoir water levels decline?

    EPA Science Inventory

    Water management and drought can lead to increased fluctuation and declines in lake and reservoir water levels. These changes can affect near-shore physical habitat and the biotic assemblages that depend upon it. Structural complexity at the land-water interface of lakes promote...

  14. Estimating the economic benefits of maintaining residential lake levels at an irrigation reservoir: A contingent valuation study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loomis, John; Smith, Adam; Huszar, Paul

    2005-08-01

    The contingent valuation method (CVM) was used to estimate homeowners' willingness to pay for water leasing to maintain stable lake levels at an irrigation reservoir in a residential neighborhood. A binary logit model was used to analyze households' voter referendum responses for maintaining the lake level. The median willingness to pay (WTP) was found to be $368 per year for lakefront residents and $59 per year for off-lake residents. The median WTP for lakefront residents was significantly different from off-lake residents at the 90% confidence level. Using the median WTP for lakefront and nonlakefront residents, we found that the increase in homeowner association fees would generate approximately $43,000, enough money to lease sufficient water to reach the target higher lake level in a normal water year.

  15. ICESat/GLAS-derived changes in the water level of Hulun Lake, Inner Mongolia, from 2003 to 2009

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Chunlan; Wang, Jun; Hu, Richa; Yin, Shan; Bao, Yuhai; Li, Yuwei

    2017-07-01

    Hulun Lake is the largest freshwater lake in northern Inner Mongolia and even minor changes in its level may have major effects on the ecology of the lake and the surrounding area. In this study, we used high-precision elevation data for the interval from 2003-2009 measured by the Geoscience Laser Altimetry System (GLAS) on board the Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) to assess annual and seasonal water level variations of Hulun Lake. The altimetry data of 32 satellite tracks were processed using the RANdom SAmple Consensus algorithm (RANSAC) to eliminate elevation outliers, and subsequently the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) was used to delineate the area of the lake. From 2003-2009, the shoreline of Hulun Lake retreated westwards, which was especially notable in the southern part of the lake. There was only a small decrease in water level, from 530.72 m to 529.22 m during 2003-2009, an average rate of 0.08 m/yr. The area of the lake decreased at a rate of 49.52 km2/yr, which was mainly the result of the shallow bathymetry in the southern part of the basin. The decrease in area was initially rapid, then much slower, and finally rapid again. Generally, the lake extent and water level decreased due to higher temperatures, intense evaporation, low precipitation, and decreasing runoff. And their fluctuations were caused by a decrease in intraannual temperature, evaporation, and a slight increase in precipitation. Overall, a combination of factors related to climate change were responsible for the variations of the water level of Hulun Lake during the study interval. The results improve our understanding of the impact of climate change on Hulun Lake and may facilitate the formulation of response strategies.

  16. ICESat/GLAS-derived changes in the water level of Hulun Lake, Inner Mongolia, from 2003 to 2009

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Chunlan; Wang, Jun; Hu, Richa; Yin, Shan; Bao, Yuhai; Li, Yuwei

    2018-06-01

    Hulun Lake is the largest freshwater lake in northern Inner Mongolia and even minor changes in its level may have major effects on the ecology of the lake and the surrounding area. In this study, we used high-precision elevation data for the interval from 2003-2009 measured by the Geoscience Laser Altimetry System (GLAS) on board the Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) to assess annual and seasonal water level variations of Hulun Lake. The altimetry data of 32 satellite tracks were processed using the RANdom SAmple Consensus algorithm (RANSAC) to eliminate elevation outliers, and subsequently the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) was used to delineate the area of the lake. From 2003-2009, the shoreline of Hulun Lake retreated westwards, which was especially notable in the southern part of the lake. There was only a small decrease in water level, from 530.72 m to 529.22 m during 2003-2009, an average rate of 0.08 m/yr. The area of the lake decreased at a rate of 49.52 km2/yr, which was mainly the result of the shallow bathymetry in the southern part of the basin. The decrease in area was initially rapid, then much slower, and finally rapid again. Generally, the lake extent and water level decreased due to higher temperatures, intense evaporation, low precipitation, and decreasing runoff. And their fluctuations were caused by a decrease in intraannual temperature, evaporation, and a slight increase in precipitation. Overall, a combination of factors related to climate change were responsible for the variations of the water level of Hulun Lake during the study interval. The results improve our understanding of the impact of climate change on Hulun Lake and may facilitate the formulation of response strategies.

  17. Evolution of Lake Turkana level at the end of the African Humid Period: modalities and forcings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nutz, A.; Schuster, M.

    2015-12-01

    The African Humid Period (AHP), ca. 11,000 to 5,000 years ago, is a major phase that had significant impacts on the environments, ecosystems, and human occupation of Africa over several millennia. One of the most marked aspects stemming from an increase in rainfall during this climate period was the creation of numerous regional lakes and the recording of highstands for these waterbodies. The termination of the AHP is known to have been time-transgressive depending on the location, being either abrupt or gradual, thereby highlighting the complex interaction among multiple forcings and responses. Lake Turkana is one of the great lakes of the East African Rift where chronology of the AHP termination has already been investigated. In this study, the delta complex of the Turkwel River is analyzed using trajectory analysis in order to provide modalities of lake level decline during that time. Trajectories reveal six slightly descending (slope gradient: >0° to 0.4°) plateaus separated by four abrupt steps having higher slope gradients (1° to 3.8°). These abrupt steps reveal repeated short-lived strong increases in the rate of lake level decline that are superimposed on the relatively steady lake level decrease characterizing this period. This marks a stepwise forced regression at the end of the AHP in the Lake Turkana. We correlate the short-lived increases in the rate of lake level decline with short-lived abrupt decreases of solar irradiance. Through the termination of the AHP, the abrupt decreases in solar irradiance modulated the continuous precessional-based reduction of solar insulation that drastically impacted monsoon activity (i.e. rainfall) and led to variations in lake levels as a response. This suggests that short-term solar variability is able to modulate longer-term orbitally-driven climate trends having significant impacts in terms of hydrology and the regional continental environments.

  18. Simulating Glacial Outburst Lake Releases for Suicide Basin, Mendenhall Glacier, Juneau, Alaska

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jacobs, A. B.; Moran, T.; Hood, E. W.

    2017-12-01

    Glacial Lake outbursts from Suicide Basin are recent phenomenon first characterized in 2011. The 2014 event resulted in record river stage and moderate flooding on the Mendenhall River in Juneau. Recognizing that these events can adversely impact residential areas of Juneau's Mendenhall Valley, the Alaska-Pacific River Forecast Center developed a real-time modeling technique capable of forecasting the timing and magnitude of the flood-wave crest due to releases from Suicide Basin. The 2014 event was estimated at about 37,000 acre feet with water levels cresting within 36 hours from the time the flood wave hit Mendenhall Lake. Given the magnitude of possible impacts to the public, accurate hydrological forecasting is essential for public safety and Emergency Managers. However, the data needed to effectively forecast magnitudes of specific jökulhlaup events are limited. Estimating this event as related to river stage depended upon three variables: 1) the timing of the lag between Suicide Basin water level declines and the related rise of Mendenhall Lake, 2) continuous monitoring of Mendenhall Lake water levels, and 3) estimating the total water volume stored in Suicide Basin. Real-time modeling of the event utilized a Time of Concentration hydrograph with independent power equations representing the rising and falling limbs of the hydrograph. The initial accuracy of the model — as forecasted about 24 hours prior to crest — resulted in an estimated crest within 0.5 feet of the actual with a timing error of about six hours later than the actual crest.

  19. Post-glacial inflation-deflation cycles, tilting, and faulting in the Yellowstone Caldera based on Yellowstone Lake shorelines

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pierce, Kenneth L.; Cannon, Kenneth P.; Meyer, Grant A.; Trebesch, Matthew J.; Watts, Raymond D.

    2002-01-01

    The Yellowstone caldera, like many other later Quaternary calderas of the world, exhibits dramatic unrest. Between 1923 and 1985, the center of the Yellowstone caldera rose nearly one meter along an axis between its two resurgent domes (Pelton and Smith, 1979, Dzurisin and Yamashita, 1987). From 1985 until 1995-6, it subsided at about two cm/yr (Dzurisin and others, 1990). More recent radar interferometry studies show renewed inflation of the northeastern resurgent dome between 1995 and 1996; this inflation migrated to the southwestern resurgent dome from 1996 to 1997 (Wicks and others, 1998). We extend this record back in time using dated geomorphic evidence of postglacial Yellowstone Lake shorelines around the northern shore, and Yellowstone River levels in the outlet area. We date these shorelines using carbon isotopic and archeological methods. Following Meyer and Locke (1986) and Locke and Meyer (1994), we identify the modern shoreline as S1 (1.9 ? 0.3 m above the lake gage datum), map paleoshoreline terraces S2 to S6, and infer that the prominent shorelines were cut during intracaldera uplift episodes that produced rising water levels. Doming along the caldera axis reduces the gradient of the Yellowstone River from Le Hardys Rapids to the Yellowstone Lake outlet and ultimately causes an increase in lake level. The 1923-1985 doming is part of a longer uplift episode that has reduced the Yellowstone River gradient to a ?pool? with a drop of only 0.25 m over most of this 5 km reach. We also present new evidence that doming has caused submergence of some Holocene lake and river levels. Shoreline S5 is about 14 m above datum and estimated to be ~12.6 ka, because it post-dates a large hydrothermal explosion deposit from the Mary Bay area (MB-II) that occurred ~13 ka. S4 formed about 8 m above datum ~10.7 ka as dated by archeology and 14C, and was accompanied by offset on the Fishing Bridge fault. About 9.7 ka, the Yellowstone River eroded the ?S-meander?, followed

  20. Chance findings about early holocene tidal marshes of Grays Harbor, Washington, in relation to rapidly rising seas and great subduction earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Phipps, James B.; Hemphill-Haley, Eileen; Atwater, Brian F.

    2015-06-18

    The puzzles posed by these findings include: (1) How did the marshes manage to endure centuries of relative sea-level rise that likely approached 1 cm/yr on average? (2) Did the marshes also endure subsidence that accompanied great thrust earthquakes on the Cascadia Subduction Zone? (3) Was their eventual drowning triggered by a Cascadia earthquake of unusually large size, or can the drowning be explained by sea-level rise that included a jump from drainage of glacial Lake Agassiz?

  1. Hydrogeological features conditioning trophic levels of quarry lakes in western Po plain (north-western Italy)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Luca, Domenico Antonio; Castagna, Sara; Lasagna, Manuela

    2013-04-01

    Quarry lakes occur in plains areas due to the extraction of alluvial sand and gravel used for grout and concrete in the construction industry. Excavation depths can reach and intersect the groundwater surface, thus creating a lake. Because of the need to optimize efficiency, the number of active open pit mines has increased in recent years; consequently, the global number of pit lakes will increase in coming decades (Castendyk and Eary 2009; Klapper and Geller 2001; Castro and Moore 2000). Similar to natural lakes, pit lakes are subject to eutrophication process, both during and after quarrying activity; during mining activity, the eutrophic level is strongly controlled by the excavation method. In the Piedmont territory (north-western Italy) there are 70 active quarry lakes, corresponding to approximately 0.1% of the entire plain area. Quarry lakes, located primarily along the main rivers occur in alluvial deposits of the plain area and have average depths between 20 and 30 m (maximum of 60 m deep) and surface areas between 3 and 30 hectares (Castagna 2008). The present study describes the trophic status of 23 active quarry lakes in the Piedmont plain that were evaluated by applying classifications from scientific literature. Currently, the majority of the studied quarry lakes may be defined as mesotrophic or eutrophic according to the trophic state classifications. Based on historic data, lake trophic levels have increased over time, during active mining. At the end of mining activity, further deterioration of water quality was expected, especially for smaller lakes with minimal oxygen stratification and higher levels of nutrients and algal growth. In addition, the paper focuses on the pit lake water quality and pit dimension; From an environmental perspective the excavation of quarry lakes with an appreciable size will likely result in a better safeguard of water quality and enhanced possibilities for lake end use after the cessation of mining. Piedmont quarry

  2. Method for Assessing Impacts of Global Sea Level Rise on Navigation Gate Operations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Obrien, P. S.; White, K. D.; Friedman, D.

    2015-12-01

    Coastal navigation infrastructure may be highly vulnerable to changing climate, including increasing sea levels and altered frequency and intensity of coastal storms. Future gate operations impacted by global sea level rise will pose unique challenges, especially for structures 50 years and older. Our approach is to estimate future changes in gate operational frequency based on a bootstrapping method to forecast future water levels. A case study will be presented to determine future changes in frequency of operations over the next 100 years. A statistical model in the R programming language was developed to apply future sea level rise projections using the three sea level rise scenarios prescribed by USACE Engineer Regulation ER 1100-2-8162. Information derived from the case study will help forecast changes in operational costs caused by increased gate operations and inform timing of decisions on adaptation measures.

  3. Predicting tidal marsh survival or submergence to sea-level rise using Holocene data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Horton, B.; Shennan, I.; Bradley, S.; Cahill, N.; Kirwan, M. L.; Kopp, R. E.; Shaw, T.

    2017-12-01

    Rising sea level threatens to permanently submerge tidal marsh environments if they cannot accrete faster than the rate of relative sea-level rise (RSLR). But regional and global model simulations of the future ability of marshes to maintain their elevation with respect to the tidal frame are uncertain. The compilation of empirical data for tidal marsh vulnerability is, therefore, essential to address disparities across these simulations. A hitherto unexplored source of empirical data are Holocene records of tidal marsh evolution. In particular, the marshes of Great Britain have survived and submerged while RSLR varied between -7.7 and 15.2 mm/yr, primarily because of the interplay between global ice-volume changes and regional isostatic processes. Here, we reveal the limits to marsh vulnerability are revealed through the analysis of over 400 reconstructions of tidal marsh submergence and conversion to tidal mud flat or open water from 54 regions in Great Britain during the Holocene. Holocene records indicate a 90% probability of tidal marsh submergence at sites with RSLR exceeding 7.3 mm/yr (95% CI: 6.6-8.6 mm/yr). Although most modern tidal marshes in Great Britain have not yet reached these sea-level rise limits, our empirical data suggest widespread concern over their ability to survive rates of sea-level rise in the 21st century under high emission scenarios. Integrating over the uncertainties in both sea-level rise predictions and the response of tidal marshes to sea-level rise, all of Great Britain has a >80% probability of marsh submergence under RCP 8.5 by 2100, with areas of south and eastern England, where the rate of RSLR is increased by glacio-isostatic subsidence, achieving this probability by 2040.

  4. Economic vulnerability to sea-level rise along the northern U.S. Gulf Coast

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thatcher, Cindy A.; Brock, John C.; Pendleton, Elizabeth A.

    2013-01-01

    The northern Gulf of Mexico coast of the United States has been identified as highly vulnerable to sea-level rise, based on a combination of physical and societal factors. Vulnerability of human populations and infrastructure to projected increases in sea level is a critical area of uncertainty for communities in the extremely low-lying and flat northern gulf coastal zone. A rapidly growing population along some parts of the northern Gulf of Mexico coastline is further increasing the potential societal and economic impacts of projected sea-level rise in the region, where observed relative rise rates range from 0.75 to 9.95 mm per year on the Gulf coasts of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida. A 1-m elevation threshold was chosen as an inclusive designation of the coastal zone vulnerable to relative sea-level rise, because of uncertainty associated with sea-level rise projections. This study applies a Coastal Economic Vulnerability Index (CEVI) to the northern Gulf of Mexico region, which includes both physical and economic factors that contribute to societal risk of impacts from rising sea level. The economic variables incorporated in the CEVI include human population, urban land cover, economic value of key types of infrastructure, and residential and commercial building values. The variables are standardized and combined to produce a quantitative index value for each 1-km coastal segment, highlighting areas where human populations and the built environment are most at risk. This information can be used by coastal managers as they allocate limited resources for ecosystem restoration, beach nourishment, and coastal-protection infrastructure. The study indicates a large amount of variability in index values along the northern Gulf of Mexico coastline, and highlights areas where long-term planning to enhance resiliency is particularly needed.

  5. RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN HYDROWEB DATABASE Water level time series on lakes and reservoirs (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cretaux, J.; Arsen, A.; Calmant, S.

    2013-12-01

    We present the current state of the Hydroweb database as well as developments in progress. It provides offline water level time series on rivers, reservoirs and lakes based on altimetry data from several satellites (Topex/Poseidon, ERS, Jason-1&2, GFO and ENVISAT). The major developments in Hydroweb concerns the development of an operational data centre with automatic acquisition and processing of IGDR data for updating time series in near real time (both for lakes & rivers) and also use of additional remote sensing data, like satellite imagery allowing the calculation of lake's surfaces. A lake data centre is under development at the Legos in coordination with Hydrolare Project leaded by SHI (State Hydrological Institute of the Russian Academy of Science). It will provide the level-surface-volume variations of about 230 lakes and reservoirs, calculated through combination of various satellite images (Modis, Asar, Landsat, Cbers) and radar altimetry (Topex / Poseidon, Jason-1 & 2, GFO, Envisat, ERS2, AltiKa). The final objective is to propose a data centre fully based on remote sensing technique and controlled by in situ infrastructure for the Global Terrestrial Network for Lakes (GTN-L) under the supervision of WMO and GCOS. In a longer perspective, the Hydroweb database will integrate data from future missions (Jason-3, Jason-CS, Sentinel-3A/B) and finally will serve for the design of the SWOT mission. The products of hydroweb will be used as input data for simulation of the SWOT products (water height and surface variations of lakes and rivers). In the future, the SWOT mission will allow to monitor on a sub-monthly basis the worldwide lakes and reservoirs bigger than 250 * 250 m and Hydroweb will host water level and extent products from this

  6. Automatic Temporal Tracking of Supra-Glacial Lakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liang, Y.; Lv, Q.; Gallaher, D. W.; Fanning, D.

    2010-12-01

    During the recent years, supra-glacial lakes in Greenland have attracted extensive global attention as they potentially play an important role in glacier movement, sea level rise, and climate change. Previous works focused on classification methods and individual cloud-free satellite images, which have limited capabilities in terms of tracking changes of lakes over time. The challenges of tracking supra-glacial lakes automatically include (1) massive amount of satellite images with diverse qualities and frequent cloud coverage, and (2) diversity and dynamics of large number of supra-glacial lakes on the Greenland ice sheet. In this study, we develop an innovative method to automatically track supra-glacial lakes temporally using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) time-series data. The method works for both cloudy and cloud-free data and is unsupervised, i.e., no manual identification is required. After selecting the highest-quality image within each time interval, our method automatically detects supra-glacial lakes in individual images, using adaptive thresholding to handle diverse image qualities. We then track lakes across time series of images as lakes appear, change in size, and disappear. Using multi-year MODIS data during melting season, we demonstrate that this new method can detect and track supra-glacial lakes in both space and time with 95% accuracy. Attached figure shows an example of the current result. Detailed analysis of the temporal variation of detected lakes will be presented. (a) One of our experimental data. The Investigated region is centered at Jakobshavn Isbrae glacier in west Greenland. (b) Enlarged view of part of ice sheet. It is partially cloudy and with supra-glacial lakes on it. Lakes are shown as dark spots. (c) Current result. Red spots are detected lakes.

  7. Global Projection of Coastal Exposure Associated with Sea-level Rise beyond Tipping Points

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tawatari, R.; Miyazaki, C.; Iseri, Y.; Kiguchi, M.; Kanae, S.

    2015-12-01

    Sea-level rise due to global warming becomes a great matter of concern for global coastal area. Additionally, it has reported in fifth report of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) that deglaciation of Greenland ice sheet and Antarctic ice sheet would occur rapidly and enhance sea-level rise if temperature passes certain "Tipping point". In terms of projecting damage induced by sea-level rise globally, some previous studies focused on duration until mainly 2100. Furthermore long-term estimations on centuries to millennial climatic response of the ice sheets which are supposed to be triggered within this or next century would be also important to think about future climate and lifestyle in coastal . In this study, I estimated the long term sea-level which take into account the tipping points of Greenland ice sheet (1.4℃) as sum of 4 factors (thermal expansion, glacier and ice cap, Greenland ice sheet, Antarctic ice sheet). The sea-level follows 4 representative concentration pathways up to 3000 obtained through literature reviewing since there were limited available sea-level projections up to 3000. I also estimated a number of affected population lives in coastal area up to 3000 with using the estimated sea-level. The cost for damage, adaptation and mitigation would be also discussed. These estimations would be useful when decision-makers propose policies for construction of dikes and proposing mitigation plans for sustainable future. The result indicates there would be large and relatively rapid increases in both sea-level rise and coastal exposure if global mean temperature passes the tipping point of Greenland ice sheet. However the tipping points, melting rate and timescale of response are highly uncertain and still discussed among experts. Thus more precise and credible information is required for further accurate estimation of long-term sea-level rise and population exposure in the future.

  8. Implications of sea-level rise in a modern carbonate ramp setting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lokier, Stephen W.; Court, Wesley M.; Onuma, Takumi; Paul, Andreas

    2018-03-01

    This study addresses a gap in our understanding of the effects of sea-level rise on the sedimentary systems and morphological development of recent and ancient carbonate ramp settings. Many ancient carbonate sequences are interpreted as having been deposited in carbonate ramp settings. These settings are poorly-represented in the Recent. The study documents the present-day transgressive flooding of the Abu Dhabi coastline at the southern shoreline of the Arabian/Persian Gulf, a carbonate ramp depositional system that is widely employed as a Recent analogue for numerous ancient carbonate systems. Fourteen years of field-based observations are integrated with historical and recent high-resolution satellite imagery in order to document and assess the onset of flooding. Predicted rates of transgression (i.e. landward movement of the shoreline) of 2.5 m yr- 1 (± 0.2 m yr- 1) based on global sea-level rise alone were far exceeded by the flooding rate calculated from the back-stepping of coastal features (10-29 m yr- 1). This discrepancy results from the dynamic nature of the flooding with increased water depth exposing the coastline to increased erosion and, thereby, enhancing back-stepping. A non-accretionary transgressive shoreline trajectory results from relatively rapid sea-level rise coupled with a low-angle ramp geometry and a paucity of sediments. The flooding is represented by the landward migration of facies belts, a range of erosive features and the onset of bioturbation. Employing Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Church et al., 2013) predictions for 21st century sea-level rise, and allowing for the post-flooding lag time that is typical for the start-up of carbonate factories, it is calculated that the coastline will continue to retrograde for the foreseeable future. Total passive flooding (without considering feedback in the modification of the shoreline) by the year 2100 is calculated to likely be between 340 and 571 m with a flooding rate of 3

  9. Reconciling projections of the Antarctic contribution to sea level rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Edwards, Tamsin; Holden, Philip; Edwards, Neil; Wernecke, Andreas

    2017-04-01

    Two recent studies of the Antarctic contribution to sea level rise this century had best estimates that differed by an order of magnitude (around 10 cm and 1 m by 2100). The first, Ritz et al. (2015), used a model calibrated with satellite data, giving a 5% probability of exceeding 30cm by 2100 for sea level rise due to Antarctic instability. The second, DeConto and Pollard (2016), used a model evaluated with reconstructions of palaeo-sea level. They did not estimate probabilities, but using a simple assumption here about the distribution shape gives up to a 5% chance of Antarctic contribution exceeding 2.3 m this century with total sea level rise approaching 3 m. If robust, this would have very substantial implications for global adaptation to climate change. How are we to make sense of this apparent inconsistency? How much is down to the data - does the past tell us we will face widespread and rapid Antarctic ice losses in the future? How much is due to the mechanism of rapid ice loss ('cliff failure') proposed in the latter paper, or other parameterisation choices in these low resolution models (GRISLI and PISM, respectively)? How much is due to choices made in the ensemble design and calibration? How do these projections compare with high resolution, grounding line resolving models such as BISICLES? Could we reduce the huge uncertainties in the palaeo-study? Emulation provides a powerful tool for understanding these questions and reconciling the projections. By describing the three numerical ice sheet models with statistical models, we can re-analyse the ensembles and re-do the calibrations under a common statistical framework. This reduces uncertainty in the PISM study because it allows massive sampling of the parameter space, which reduces the sensitivity to reconstructed palaeo-sea level values and also narrows the probability intervals because the simple assumption about distribution shape above is no longer needed. We present reconciled probabilistic

  10. Glaciers dominate eustatic sea-level rise in the 21st century

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Meier, Mark Frederick; Dyurgerov, M.B.; Rick, Ursula K.; Pfeffer, William Tad; Anderson, Suzanne P.; Glazovsky, Andrey F.

    2007-01-01

    Ice loss to the sea currently accounts for virtually all of the sea-level rise that is not attributable to ocean warming, and about 60% of the ice loss is from glaciers and ice caps rather than from the two ice sheets. The contribution of these smaller glaciers has accelerated over the past decade, in part due to marked thinning and retreat of marine-terminating glaciers associated with a dynamic instability that is generally not considered in mass-balance and climate modeling. This acceleration of glacier melt may cause 0.1 to 0.25 meter of additional sea-level rise by 2100.

  11. Future sea-level rise in the Mediterranean Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Galassi, Gaia; Spada, Giorgio

    2014-05-01

    Secular sea level variations in the Mediterranean Sea are the result of a number of processes characterized by distinct time scales and spatial patterns. Here we predict the future sea level variations in the Mediterranean Sea to year 2050 combining the contributions from terrestrial ice melt (TIM), glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), and the ocean response (OR) that includes the thermal expansion and the ocean circulation contributions. The three contributions are characterized by comparable magnitudes but distinctly different sea-level fingerprints across the Mediterranean basin. The TIM component of future sea-level rise is taken from Spada et al. (2013) and it is mainly driven by the melt of small glaciers and ice caps and by the dynamic ice loss from Antarctica. The sea-level fingerprint associated with GIA is studied using two distinct models available from the literature: ICE-5G(VM2) (Peltier, 2004) and the ice model progressively developed at the Research School of Earth Sciences (RSES) of the National Australian University (KL05) (see Fleming and Lambeck, 2004 and references therein). Both the GIA and the TIM sea-level predictions have been obtained with the aid of the SELEN program (Spada and Stocchi, 2007). The spatially-averaged OR component, which includes thermosteric and halosteric sea-level variations, recently obtained using a regional coupled ocean-atmosphere model (Carillo et al., 2012), vary between 2 and 7 cm according to scenarios adopted (EA1B and EA1B2, see Meehl at al., 2007). Since the sea-level variations associated with TIM mainly result from the gravitational interactions between the cryosphere components, the oceans and the solid Earth, and long-wavelength rotational variations, they are characterized by a very smooth global pattern and by a marked zonal symmetry reflecting the dipole geometry of the ice sources. Since the Mediterranean Sea is located in the intermediate far-field of major ice sources, TIM sea-level changes have sub

  12. Lake Vanda: A sentinel for climate change in the McMurdo Sound Region of Antarctica

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Castendyk, Devin N.; Obryk, Maciej K.; Leidman, Sasha Z.; Gooseff, Michael; Hawes, Ian

    2016-09-01

    Lake Vanda is a perennially ice-covered, meromictic, endorheic lake located in the McMurdo Dry Valleys of Antarctica, and an exceptional sentinel of climate change within the region. Lake levels rose 15 m over the past 68 years in response to climate-driven variability in ice-cover sublimation, meltwater production, and annual discharge of the Onyx River, the main source of water to the lake. Evidence from a new bathymetric map and water balance model combined with annual growth laminations in benthic mats suggest that the most recent filling trend began abruptly 80 years ago, in the early 1930s. This change increased lake volume by > 50%, triggered the formation of a new, upper, thermohaline convection cell, and cooled the lower convection cell by at least 2 °C and the bottom-most waters by at > 4 °C. Additionally, the depth of the deep chlorophyll a maximum rose by > 2 m, and deep-growing benthic algal mats declined while shallow benthic mats colonized freshly inundated areas. We attribute changes in hydrology to regional variations in air flow related to the strength and position of the Amundsen Sea Low (ASL) pressure system which have increased the frequency of down-valley, föhn winds associated with surface air temperature warming in the McMurdo Dry Valleys. The ASL has also been implicated in the recent warming of the Antarctic Peninsula, and provides a common link for climate-related change on opposite sides of the continent. If this trend persists, Lake Vanda should continue to rise and cool over the next 200 years until a new equilibrium lake level is achieved. Most likely, future lake rise will lead to isothermal conditions not conducive to thermohaline convection, resulting in a drastically different physical, biogeochemical, and biological structure than observed today.

  13. How Do River Meanders Change with Sea Level Rise and Fall?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scamardo, J. E.; Kim, W.

    2016-12-01

    River meander patterns are controlled by numerous factors, including variations in water discharge, sediment input, and base level. However, the effect of sea level rise and fall on meandering rivers has not been thoroughly quantified. This study examines geomorphic changes to meandering rivers as a result of sea level rise and fall. Twenty experimental runs using coarse-grained walnut shell sediment (D50= 500 microns) in a flume tank (2.4m x 0.6m x 0.1m) tested the optimal initial conditions for creating meandering rivers in a laboratory setting as well as variations in base level rise and fall rates. Geomorphic changes were recorded by camera images every 20 seconds for a duration of 4 hours per experiment. Seventeen experiments tested the effects of changes in initial base levels, water discharge between 200 and 400 mL/min, and sediment to water input ratios between 1:1000 and 1:250 while measuring sinuosity, channel geometry, and the timescale of the channel to reach a stable form. Sinuosity and channel activity increased with increasing water discharge, initial base level, and the sediment to water ratio to a point after which the activity decreased with increasing sediment input. Base-level change experiments used initial conditions of 400 mL/min, a 1:750 sediment to water input ratio, and a 6 cm initial base-level to induce river meanders for the initial 2 hours before base-level change occurred. Three separate experiments investigated the effects of increasing rates of sea level change: 0.07 cm/min, 0.1 cm/min, and 0.2 cm/min. Experimental sea level was decreased constantly from a high-stand of 6 cm to a low-stand of 2 cm back to the high-stand base-level in each experiment. The rates of change in the experiments scale roughly from central to glacial cycles. In all three experiments, sea level fall induced meander cut-off while sea level rise prompted greater rates of meander bend erosion and meander growth. Sinuosity increased by 12%, 13.5%, and 24

  14. Challenges in Projecting Sea Level Rise impacts on the Coastal Environment of South Florida (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Obeysekera, J.; Park, J.; Irizarry-Ortiz, M. M.; Barnes, J. A.; Trimble, P.; Said, W.

    2010-12-01

    Due to flat topography, a highly transmissive groundwater aquifer, and a growing population with the associated infrastructure, South Florida’s coastal environment is one of the most vulnerable areas to sea level rise. Current projections of sea level rise and the associated storm surges will have direct impacts on coastal beaches and infrastructure, flood protection, freshwater aquifers, and both the isolated and regional wetlands. Uncertainties in current projections have made it difficult for regional and local governments to develop adaptation strategies as such measures will depend heavily on the temporal and spatial patterns of sea level rise in the coming decades. We demonstrate the vulnerability of both the built and natural environments of the coastal region and present the current efforts to understand and predict the sea level rise estimate that management agencies could employ in planning of adaptation strategies. In particular, the potential vulnerabilities of the flood control system as well as the threat to the water supply wellfields in the coastal belt will be presented. In an effort to understand the historical variability of sea level rise, we present linkages to natural phenomena such as Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, and the analytical methods we have developed to provide probabilistic projections of both mean sea level rise and the extremes.

  15. Why is the Groundwater Level Rising? A Case Study Using HARTT to Simulate Groundwater Level Dynamic.

    PubMed

    Yihdego, Yohannes; Danis, Cara; Paffard, Andrew

    2017-12-01

      Groundwater from a shallow unconfined aquifer at a site in coastal New South Wales has been causing recent water logging issues. A trend of rising groundwater level has been anecdotally observed over the last 10 years. It was not clear whether the changes in groundwater levels were solely natural variations within the groundwater system or whether human interference was driving the level up. Time series topographic images revealed significant surrounding land use changes and human modification to the environment of the groundwater catchment. A statistical model utilising HARTT (multiple linear regression hydrograph analysis method) simulated the groundwater level dynamics at five key monitoring locations and successfully showed a trend of rising groundwater level. Utilising hydrogeological input from field investigations, the model successfully simulated the rise in the water table over time to the present day levels, whilst taking into consideration rainfall and land changes. The underlying geological/land conditions were found to be just as significant as the impact of climate variation. The correlation coefficient for the monitoring bores (MB), excluding MB4, show that the groundwater level fluctuation can be explained by the climate variable (rainfall) with the lag time between the atypical rainfall and groundwater level ranging from 4 to 7 months. The low R2 value for MB4 indicates that there are factors missing in the model which are primarily related to human interference. The elevated groundwater levels in the affected area are the result of long term cumulative land use changes, instigated by humans, which have directly resulted in detrimental changes to the groundwater aquifer properties.

  16. Statistical analysis of lake levels and field study of groundwater and surface-water exchanges in the northeast Twin Cities Metropolitan Area, Minnesota, 2002 through 2015: Chapter A of Water levels and groundwater and surface-water exchanges in lakes of the northeast Twin Cities Metropolitan Area, Minnesota, 2002 through 2015

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jones, Perry M.; Trost, Jared J.; Diekoff, Aliesha L.; Rosenberry, Donald O.; White, Eric A.; Erickson, Melinda L.; Morel, Daniel L.; Heck, Jessica M.

    2016-10-19

    Water levels declined from 2003 to 2011 in many lakes in Ramsey and Washington Counties in the northeast Twin Cities Metropolitan Area, Minnesota; however, water levels in other northeast Twin Cities Metropolitan Area lakes increased during the same period. Groundwater and surface-water exchanges can be important in determining lake levels where these exchanges are an important component of the water budget of a lake. An understanding of groundwater and surface-water exchanges in the northeast Twin Cities Metropolitan Area has been limited by the lack of hydrologic data. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Metropolitan Council and Minnesota Department of Health, completed a field and statistical study assessing lake-water levels and regional and local groundwater and surface-water exchanges near northeast Twin Cities Metropolitan Area lakes. This report documents the analysis of collected hydrologic, water-quality, and geophysical data; and existing hydrologic and geologic data to (1) assess the effect of physical setting and climate on lake-level fluctuations of selected lakes, (2) estimate potential percentages of surface-water contributions to well water across the northeast Twin Cities Metropolitan Area, (3) estimate general ages for waters extracted from the wells, and (4) assess groundwater inflow to lakes and lake-water outflow to aquifers downgradient from White Bear Lake. Statistical analyses of lake levels during short-term (2002–10) and long-term (1925–2014) periods were completed to help understand lake-level changes across the northeast Twin Cities Metropolitan Area. Comparison of 2002–10 lake levels to several landscape and geologic characteristics explained variability in lake-level changes for 96 northeast Twin Cities Metropolitan Area lakes. Application of several statistical methods determined that (1) closed-basin lakes (without an active outlet) had larger lake-level declines than flow-through lakes with an outlet; (2

  17. Analysis of Sea Level Rise in Action

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gill, K. M.; Huang, T.; Quach, N. T.; Boening, C.

    2016-12-01

    NASA's Sea Level Change Portal provides scientists and the general public with "one-stop" source for current sea level change information and data. Sea Level Rise research is a multidisciplinary research and in order to understand its causes, scientists must be able to access different measurements and to be able to compare them. The portal includes an interactive tool, called the Data Analysis Tool (DAT), for accessing, visualizing, and analyzing observations and models relevant to the study of Sea Level Rise. Using NEXUS, an open source, big data analytic technology developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, the DAT is able provide user on-the-fly data analysis on all relevant parameters. DAT is composed of three major components: A dedicated instance of OnEarth (a WMTS service), NEXUS deep data analytic platform, and the JPL Common Mapping Client (CMC) for web browser based user interface (UI). Utilizing the global imagery, a user is capable of browsing the data in a visual manner and isolate areas of interest for further study. The interfaces "Analysis" tool provides tools for area or point selection, single and/or comparative dataset selection, and a range of options, algorithms, and plotting. This analysis component utilizes the Nexus cloud computing platform to provide on-demand processing of the data within the user-selected parameters and immediate display of the results. A RESTful web API is exposed for users comfortable with other interfaces and who may want to take advantage of the cloud computing capabilities. This talk discuss how DAT enables on-the-fly sea level research. The talk will introduce the DAT with an end-to-end tour of the tool with exploration and animating of available imagery, a demonstration of comparative analysis and plotting, and how to share and export data along with images for use in publications/presentations. The session will cover what kind of data is available, what kind of analysis is possible, and what are the outputs.

  18. Ice formation in subglacial Lake Vostok, Central Antarctica

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Souchez, R.; Petit, J. R.; Tison, J.-L.; Jouzel, J.; Verbeke, V.

    2000-09-01

    The investigation of chemical and isotopic properties in the lake ice from the Vostok ice core gives clues to the mechanisms involved in ice formation within the lake. A small lake water salinity can be reasonably deduced from the chemical data. Possible implications for the water circulation of Lake Vostok are developed. The characteristics of the isotopic composition of the lake ice indicate that ice formation in Lake Vostok occurred by frazil ice crystal generation due to supercooling as a consequence of rising waters and a possible contrast in water salinity. Subsequent consolidation of the developed loose ice crystals results in the accretion of ice to the ceiling of the lake.

  19. Is the detection of accelerated sea level rise imminent?

    DOE PAGES

    Fasullo, J. T.; Nerem, R. S.; Hamlington, B.

    2016-08-10

    Global mean sea level rise estimated from satellite altimetry provides a strong constraint on climate variability and change and is expected to accelerate as the rates of both ocean warming and cryospheric mass loss increase over time. In stark contrast to this expectation however, current altimeter products show the rate of sea level rise to have decreased from the first to second decades of the altimeter era. Here, a combined analysis of altimeter data and specially designed climate model simulations shows the 1991 eruption of Mt Pinatubo to likely have masked the acceleration that would have otherwise occurred. This maskingmore » arose largely from a recovery in ocean heat content through the mid to late 1990 s subsequent to major heat content reductions in the years following the eruption. As a result, a consequence of this finding is that barring another major volcanic eruption, a detectable acceleration is likely to emerge from the noise of internal climate variability in the coming decade.« less

  20. Is the detection of accelerated sea level rise imminent?

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Fasullo, J. T.; Nerem, R. S.; Hamlington, B.

    Global mean sea level rise estimated from satellite altimetry provides a strong constraint on climate variability and change and is expected to accelerate as the rates of both ocean warming and cryospheric mass loss increase over time. In stark contrast to this expectation however, current altimeter products show the rate of sea level rise to have decreased from the first to second decades of the altimeter era. Here, a combined analysis of altimeter data and specially designed climate model simulations shows the 1991 eruption of Mt Pinatubo to likely have masked the acceleration that would have otherwise occurred. This maskingmore » arose largely from a recovery in ocean heat content through the mid to late 1990 s subsequent to major heat content reductions in the years following the eruption. As a result, a consequence of this finding is that barring another major volcanic eruption, a detectable acceleration is likely to emerge from the noise of internal climate variability in the coming decade.« less

  1. Dynamics of the Ili delta with consideration of fluctuations of the level of Lake Balkhash

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Abdrasilov, S.A.; Tulebaeva, K.A.

    1995-02-01

    This article examines the dynamics of the Ili delta region of Russia, with consideration of the fluctuations of the level of Lake Balkhash. Level fluctuations over a period of approximately 700 years are reviewed, and numerical data is presented. It is shown that the dynamics of the delta region affect both the amplitude and duration of the cycle of fluctuations of the lake level. In particular, the phase of the delta cycle that started cuts off the peak of the maximum ordinate of the level at the end of the tranasgressive period reduces still more the minimum elevations of themore » lake level at the end of the regressive period. It also accelerates the time of occurence of individual phases of the intrasecular cycle.« less

  2. Abrupt lake-level changes in the Rocky Mountains and surrounding regions since the Last Glacial Maximum

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shuman, B. N.; Serravezza, M.

    2016-12-01

    The paleohydrologic record of western North America since the last glacial maximum reveals a wide range of hydroclimatic variability and distinctive patterns associated with abrupt climate changes. To evaluate the sequence of abrupt hydroclimatic shifts and centennial-to-millennial hydrologic variability in western North America over the past 17 ka, we reconstruct lake-level histories from two high-elevation lakes in the Beartooth and Bighorn Mountains. The lakes represent the headwaters of the Missouri River drainage in northern Wyoming, but also have the potential to capture regional hydroclimate variability that links the northern Rocky Mountains to the mid-continent, Pacific Northwest, and the Great Basin. We first discuss the stratigraphic record of lake-level changes in small mid-latitude lakes and then use ground-penetrating radar (GPR) and sediment cores to track the elevations of shoreline sediments within the lakes through time. We compare the stratigraphies to the records from four other lakes in Wyoming and Colorado, and find widespread evidence for a Terminal Pleistocene Drought from 15-11 ka, an early Holocene humid period from 11-8 ka, and a period of severe mid-Holocene aridity from 8-5.7 ka. The northern Wyoming lakes also provide evidence of high levels before ca. 15 ka, including rapid hydroclimatic changes at ca. 16.8 ka during Heinrich Event 1. We place the changes in a broad context by summarizing and mapping water-level changes from 107 additional, previously studied lakes. Important patterns include 1) extensive drying across the western U.S. after 15 ka; 2) coherent sub-regional differences during the Younger Dryas and Pleistocene-Holocene transition; 3) a north-south contrast from 9-6 ka consistent with a northward shift in storm tracks as the influence of the Laurentide Ice Sheet diminished; and 4) rapid increases in effective moisture across much of western North America from 6-4 ka.

  3. Satellite-based Paleo and Recent Lake Changes across the Tibetan Plateau

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sheng, Y.; Luo, J.; Shah, C. A.; Kroll, C. N.; Li, X.; Yao, T.; Wu, Y.

    2007-12-01

    The Tibetan Plateau, home to the world's largest high-altitude lake group, is experiencing significant climate change with a pronounced temperature rise of 0.16°C per decade. Tibetan lakes have been impacted greatly, and in return they serve as a sensitive indicator of regional and global climate and water cycle variability. Past lake dynamics is essential for us to better understand the current and inferred future lake changes. Owing to fact that paleo lake shores have been extensively preserved on this remote plateau, paleo lake change since the late Pleistocene (about 25 ka BP) can be inferred with the assistance of digital elevation models from paleo shorelines visible on high-resolution imagery. We have recovered the lake extent more than 650 major contemporary lakes occupying a total area of 21,613 km2, and it turns out that these lakes were broken from original 173 late Pleistocene mega lakes. The total lake area shrinkage and water loss are conservatively estimated at 42,109 km2 and 2,936 km3 respectively. Nearly two-thirds of late Pleistocene lake area has disappeared. More recent lake dynamics over the past 30 years is monitored using archived satellite data, and only minor changes are found in most areas. The detected paleo and recent lake changes exhibit strong spatial patterns. Three distinct zones of paleo changes can be identified trending in the northeast to the southwest direction. Lakes in the first zone have only minor water-level drops (less than 20 meters). The second zone is the moderate zone, with 20-60 meter water level drops. Lakes in the third zone have the greatest water-level drop, up to 285 meters. Paleo shorelines are found extensively in this zone. The spatial distribution of the zones is found highly related to the Quaternary glaciation patterns. Glacial dynamics and stream network changes and other factors may explain the detected recent lake changes. It is found that glacial dynamics has the greatest impact on the detected paleo

  4. Automated tracking of lava lake level using thermal images at Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai’i

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Patrick, Matthew R.; Swanson, Don; Orr, Tim R.

    2016-01-01

    Tracking the level of the lava lake in Halema‘uma‘u Crater, at the summit of Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai’i, is an essential part of monitoring the ongoing eruption and forecasting potentially hazardous changes in activity. We describe a simple automated image processing routine that analyzes continuously-acquired thermal images of the lava lake and measures lava level. The method uses three image segmentation approaches, based on edge detection, short-term change analysis, and composite temperature thresholding, to identify and track the lake margin in the images. These relative measurements from the images are periodically calibrated with laser rangefinder measurements to produce real-time estimates of lake elevation. Continuous, automated tracking of the lava level has been an important tool used by the U.S. Geological Survey’s Hawaiian Volcano Observatory since 2012 in real-time operational monitoring of the volcano and its hazard potential.

  5. A decade of sea level rise slowed by climate-driven hydrology.

    PubMed

    Reager, J T; Gardner, A S; Famiglietti, J S; Wiese, D N; Eicker, A; Lo, M-H

    2016-02-12

    Climate-driven changes in land water storage and their contributions to sea level rise have been absent from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change sea level budgets owing to observational challenges. Recent advances in satellite measurement of time-variable gravity combined with reconciled global glacier loss estimates enable a disaggregation of continental land mass changes and a quantification of this term. We found that between 2002 and 2014, climate variability resulted in an additional 3200 ± 900 gigatons of water being stored on land. This gain partially offset water losses from ice sheets, glaciers, and groundwater pumping, slowing the rate of sea level rise by 0.71 ± 0.20 millimeters per year. These findings highlight the importance of climate-driven changes in hydrology when assigning attribution to decadal changes in sea level. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  6. Paleoenvironmental records of water level and climatic changes from the middle to late Holocene at a Lake Erie coastal wetland, Ontario, Canada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Finkelstein, Sarah A.; Davis, Anthony M.

    2006-01-01

    Pollen and diatom assemblages, and peat stratigraphies, from a coastal wetland on the northern shore of Lake Erie were used to analyze water level and climatic changes since the middle Holocene and their effects on wetland plant communities. Peat deposition began 4700 cal yr B.P. during the Nipissing II transgression, which was driven by isostatic rebound. At that time, a diatom-rich wild rice marsh existed at the site. Water level dropped at the end of the Nipissing rise at least 2 m within 200 yr, leading to the development of shallower-water plant communities and an environment too dry for most diatoms to persist. The sharp decline in water level was probably driven primarily by outlet incision, but climate likely played some role. The paleoecological records provide evidence for post-Nipissing century-scale transgressions occurring around 2300, 1160, 700 and 450 cal yr B.P. The chronology for these transgressions correlates with other studies from the region and implies climatic forcing. Peat inception in shallow sloughs across part of the study area around 700 cal yr B.P. coincides with the Little Ice Age. These records, considered alongside others from the region, suggest that the Little Ice Age may have resulted in a wetter climate across the eastern Great Lakes region.

  7. Geologic effects and coastal vulnerability to sea-level rise, erosion, and storms

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Williams, S.J.; Gutierrez, B.T.; Thieler, E.R.; Pendleton, E.

    2008-01-01

    A combination of natural and human factors are driving coastal change and making coastal regions and populations increasingly vulnerable. Sea level, a major agent of coastal erosion, has varied greatly from -120 m below present during glacial period low-stands to + 4 to 6 m above present during interglacial warm periods. Geologic and tide gauge data show that global sea level has risen about 12 to 15 cm during the past century with satellite measurements indicating an acceleration since the early 1990s due to thermal expansion and ice-sheet melting. Land subsidence due to tectonic forces and sediment compaction in regions like the mid-Atlantic and Louisiana increase the rate of relative sea-level rise to 40 cm to 100 cm per century. Sea- level rise is predicted to accelerate significantly in the near future due to climate change, resulting in pervasive impacts to coastal regions and putting populations increasingly at risk. The full implications of climate change for coastal systems need to be understood better and long-term plans are needed to manage coasts in order to protect natural resources and mitigate the effects of sea-level rise and increased storms on human infrastructure. 

  8. Hydrology and water quality of Shell Lake, Washburn County, Wisconsin, with special emphasis on the effects of diversion and changes in water level on the water quality of a shallow terminal lake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Juckem, Paul F.; Robertson, Dale M.

    2013-01-01

    Shell Lake is a relatively shallow terminal lake (tributaries but no outlets) in northwestern Wisconsin that has experienced approximately 10 feet (ft) of water-level fluctuation over more than 70 years of record and extensive flooding of nearshore areas starting in the early 2000s. The City of Shell Lake (City) received a permit from the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources in 2002 to divert water from the lake to a nearby river in order to lower water levels and reduce flooding. Previous studies suggested that water-level fluctuations were driven by long-term cycles in precipitation, evaporation, and runoff, although questions about the lake’s connection with the groundwater system remained. The permit required that the City evaluate assumptions about lake/groundwater interactions made in previous studies and evaluate the effects of the water diversion on water levels in Shell Lake and other nearby lakes. Therefore, a cooperative study between the City and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) was initiated to improve the understanding of the hydrogeology of the area and evaluate potential effects of the diversion on water levels in Shell Lake, the surrounding groundwater system, and nearby lakes. Concerns over deteriorating water quality in the lake, possibly associated with changes in water level, prompted an additional cooperative project between the City and the USGS to evaluate efeffects of changes in nutrient loading associated with changes in water levels on the water quality of Shell Lake. Numerical models were used to evaluate how the hydrology and water quality responded to diversion of water from the lake and historical changes in the watershed. The groundwater-flow model MODFLOW was used to simulate groundwater movement in the area around Shell Lake, including groundwater/surface-water interactions. Simulated results from the MODFLOW model indicate that groundwater flows generally northward in the area around Shell Lake, with flow locally converging

  9. Sea-level Rise Impacts on Oregon Estuaries: Biology and Hydrology - for posting on website

    EPA Science Inventory

    Estuaries are transitional ecosystems located at the margin of the land and ocean and as a result they are particularly sensitive to sea level rise and other climate drivers. In this presentation, we summarize the potential impacts of sea level rise on key estuarine habitats incl...

  10. Lake States Pulpwood Production Rises 11 Percent in 1969

    Treesearch

    James E. Blyth

    1970-01-01

    This 24th annual report shows that 1969 Lake States pulpwood output rose to about 3.9 million cords from about 3.5 million cords in 1968. Pulpwood harvesting increased 150,000 cords in Wisconsin, 113,000 cords in Minnesota, and 102,000 cords in Michigan. For the first time, pulpwood imports from western States exceeded those from Canada.

  11. Hazardous radioactivity levels and heavy mineral concentrations in beach sediments of Lake Peipsi, northeastern Estonia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Järvelill, Johanna-Iisebel; Koch, Rein; Raukas, Anto; Vaasma, Tiit

    2018-03-01

    The present study discusses results of heavy mineral analyses and radioactivity of beach sediments of Lake Peipsi. Such analyses are commonly done globally, but had not yet been conducted for the fourth largest lake in Europe. The average heavy mineral content in Lake Peipsi beach sediments along the northern and western coast is higher than usual for Estonian coastal and Quaternary sediments. Concomitantly, elevated radioactivity levels have been measured in several places, with the highest concentrations observed at Alajõe (1885.5 Bq/kg), which is over five times more than the recommended limit. The aim of the present study is to find sites with higher radioactivity levels, because the northern coast of Lake Peipsi is a well-known recreational area.

  12. Levels, patterns, trends and significance of polychlorinated naphthalenes (PCNs) in Great Lakes fish.

    PubMed

    Gewurtz, Sarah B; Gandhi, Nilima; Drouillard, Ken G; Kolic, Terry; MacPherson, Karen; Reiner, Eric J; Bhavsar, Satyendra P

    2018-05-15

    Polychlorinated naphthalenes (PCNs) were introduced to market about a century ago and their production is thought to have ceased by the early 1980s. However, relatively limited knowledge exists on their abundance in the edible portion of a variety of Great Lakes fish to aid in understanding their potential risk to human consumers. We studied levels, patterns, trends and significance of PCNs in a total 470 fillet samples of 18 fish species collected from the Canadian waters of the Great Lakes between 2006 and 2013. A limited comparison of fillet and wholebody concentrations in Carp and Bullhead was also conducted. The ∑PCN ranged from 0.006-6.7ng/g wet weight (ww) and 0.15-190ng/g lipid weight (lw) with the dominant congeners being PCN-52/60 (34%), -42 (21%) and -66/67 (15%). The concentrations spatially varied in the order of the Detroit River>Lakes Erie>Ontario>Huron>Superior. PCN-66/67 was the dominating congener contributing on average 76-80% of toxic equivalent concentration (TEQ PCN ). Contribution of TEQ PCN to TEQ Total (TEQ Dioxins+Furans+dioxin-likePCBs+PCNs ) was mostly <15%, especially at higher TEQ Total, and PCB-126 remains the major congener contributing to TEQ Total . The congener pattern suggests that impurities in PCB formulations and thereby historical PCB contamination, instead of unintentional releases from industrial thermal processes, could be an important source of PCNs in Great Lakes fish. A limited temporal change analysis indicated declines in the levels of PCN-66/67 between 2006 and 2012, complemented by previously reported decrease in PCNs in Lake Ontario Lake Trout between 1979 and 2004. The whole body concentrations were 1.4-3.2 fold higher than the corresponding fillets of Carp and Bullhead. Overall, the study results suggest that only targeted monitoring of PCNs in Great Lakes fish, especially at the Detroit River, Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, is necessary to assess continued future improvements of this group of contaminants of

  13. The initial rise method extended to multiple trapping levels in thermoluminescent materials.

    PubMed

    Furetta, C; Guzmán, S; Ruiz, B; Cruz-Zaragoza, E

    2011-02-01

    The well known Initial Rise Method (IR) is commonly used to determine the activation energy when only one glow peak is presented and analysed in the phosphor materials. However, when the glow peak is more complex, a wide peak and some holders appear in the structure. The application of the Initial Rise Method is not valid because multiple trapping levels are considered and then the thermoluminescent analysis becomes difficult to perform. This paper shows the case of a complex glow curve structure as an example and shows that the calculation is also possible using the IR method. The aim of the paper is to extend the well known Initial Rise Method (IR) to the case of multiple trapping levels. The IR method is applied to minerals extracted from Nopal cactus and Oregano spices because the thermoluminescent glow curve's shape suggests a trap distribution instead of a single trapping level. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Sea Level Rise in the 21st Century: Will projections ever become reliable?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Willis, J. K.

    2014-12-01

    Global sea level rise has the potential to become one of the most costly and least well predicted impacts of human caused climate change. Unlike global surface temperature, the spread of possible scenarios (as little as 1 foot and as much as 6 feet by 2100) is not due to uncertainty about future rates of greenhouse gas emissions, but rather by a fundamental lack of knowledge about how the major ice sheets will behave in a warming climate. Clearly improved projections of sea level rise should become a major research priority in the next decade. At present, controversial techniques based on comparison with historical analogs and rates of recent warming and sea level rise are often used to create projections for the 21st Century. However, many in the scientific community feel that reliable projections must be based on a sound knowledge of the physics governing sea level rise, and particularly ice sheet behavior. In particular, large portions of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and parts of the Greenland Ice Sheet rest on solid earth that sits below sea level. These regions may be threatened, not by atmospheric warming or changes in precipitation, but rather by direct forcing from the ocean. Fledgling efforts to understand these ocean ice interactions are already underway, as are efforts to make improved models of ice sheet behavior. However a great deal of work is still needed before widely accepted projections of sea level rise become a reality. This paper will highlight the hurdles to making such projections today and suggest ways forward in this critical area of research.

  15. Using time lapse cameras to monitor shoreline changes due to sea level rise.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2017-01-01

    Shoreline habitats and infrastructure are currently being affected by sea level rise (SLR) and as : global temperatures continue to rise, will continue to get worse for millennia. Governments : and individuals decisions to adapt to SLR could ha...

  16. On Evaluating circulation and temperature stratification under changing water levels in Lake Mead with a 3D hydrodynamic model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Y.; Acharya, K.; Chen, D.; Stone, M.; Yu, Z.; Young, M.; Zhu, J.; Shafer, D. S.; Warwick, J. J.

    2009-12-01

    Sustained drought in the western United States since 2000 has led to a significant drop (about 35 meters) in the water level of Lake Mead, the largest reservoir by volume in United States. The drought combined with rapid urban development in southern Nevada and emergence of invasive species has threatened the water quality and ecological processes in Lake Mead. A three-dimensional hydrodynamic model, Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC), was applied to investigate lake circulation and temperature stratification in parts of Lake Mead (Las Vegas Bay and Boulder Basin) under changing water levels. Besides the inflow from Las Vegas Wash and the Colorado River, the model considered atmospheric changes as well as the boundary conditions restricted by the operation of Hoover Dam. The model was calibrated and verified by using observed data including water level, velocity, and temperature from 2003 and 2005. The model was applied to study the hydrodynamic processes at water level 366.8 m (year 2000) and at water level 338.2 m (year 2008). The high-stage simulation described the pre-drought lake hydrodynamic processes while the low-stage simulation highlighted the drawdown impact on such processes. The results showed that both inflow and wind-driven mixing process played major roles in the thermal stratification and lake circulation in both cases. However, the atmospheric boundary played a more important role than inflow temperature on thermal stratification of Lake Mead during water level decline. Further, the thermal stratification regime and flow circulation pattern in shallow lake regions (e.g.., the Boulder Basin area) were most impacted. The temperature of the lake at the high-stage was more sensitive to inflow temperatures than at low-stage. Furthermore, flow velocities decreased with the decreasing water level due to reduction in wind impacts, particularly in shallow areas of the lake. Such changes in temperature and lake current due to present drought have a

  17. Water levels and groundwater and surface-water exchanges in lakes of the northeast Twin Cities Metropolitan Area, Minnesota, 2002 through 2015

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jones, Perry M.; Trost, Jared J.; Erickson, Melinda L.

    2016-10-19

    OverviewThis study assessed lake-water levels and regional and local groundwater and surface-water exchanges near northeast Twin Cities Metropolitan Area lakes applying three approaches: statistical analysis, field study, and groundwater-flow modeling.  Statistical analyses of lake levels were completed to assess the effect of physical setting and climate on lake-level fluctuations of selected lakes. A field study of groundwater and surface-water interactions in selected lakes was completed to (1) estimate potential percentages of surface-water contributions to well water across the northeast Twin Cities Metropolitan Area, (2) estimate general ages for waters extracted from the wells, and (3) assess groundwater inflow to lakes and lake-water outflow to aquifers downgradient from White Bear Lake.  Groundwater flow was simulated using a steady-state, groundwater-flow model to assess regional groundwater and surface-water exchanges and the effects of groundwater withdrawals, climate, and other factors on water levels of northeast Twin Cities Metropolitan Area lakes.

  18. Limits on the adaptability of coastal marshes to rising sea level

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kirwan, Matthew L.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.; D'Alpaos, Andrea; Morris, James T.; Mudd, Simon M.; Temmerman, Stijn

    2010-01-01

    Assumptions of a static landscape inspire predictions that about half of the world's coastal wetlands will submerge during this century in response to sea-level acceleration. In contrast, we use simulations from five numerical models to quantify the conditions under which ecogeomorphic feedbacks allow coastal wetlands to adapt to projected changes in sea level. In contrast to previous sea-level assessments, we find that non-linear feedbacks among inundation, plant growth, organic matter accretion, and sediment deposition, allow marshes to survive conservative projections of sea-level rise where suspended sediment concentrations are greater than ~20 mg/L. Under scenarios of more rapid sea-level rise (e.g., those that include ice sheet melting), marshes will likely submerge near the end of the 21st century. Our results emphasize that in areas of rapid geomorphic change, predicting the response of ecosystems to climate change requires consideration of the ability of biological processes to modify their physical environment.

  19. Stable isotope evaluation of population- and individual-level diet variability in a large, oligotrophic lake with non-native lake trout

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ng, Elizabeth L.; Fredericks, Jim P.; Quist, Michael C.

    2016-01-01

    Non-native piscivores can alter food web dynamics; therefore, evaluating interspecific relationships is vital for conservation and management of ecosystems with introduced fishes. Priest Lake, Idaho, supports a number of introduced species, including lake troutSalvelinus namaycush, brook trout S. fontinalis and opossum shrimp Mysis diluviana. In this study, we used stable isotopes (δ13C and δ15N) to describe the food web structure of Priest Lake and to test hypotheses about apparent patterns in lake trout growth. We found that isotopic niches of species using pelagic-origin carbon did not overlap with those using more littoral-origin carbon. Species using more littoral-origin carbon, such as brook trout and westslope cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus clarki lewisi, exhibited a high degree of isotopic niche overlap and high intrapopulation variability in resource use. Although we hypothesised that lake trout would experience an ontogenetic diet shift, no such patterns were apparent in isotopic signatures. Lake trout growth rates were not associated with patterns in δ15N, indicating that variation in adult body composition may not be related to adult diet. Understanding trophic relationships at both the individual and species levels provides a more complete understanding of food webs altered by non-native species.

  20. Barriers to and opportunities for landward migration of coastal wetlands with sea-level rise

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Enwright, Nicholas M.; Griffith, Kereen T.; Osland, Michael J.

    2016-01-01

    In the 21st century, accelerated sea-level rise and continued coastal development are expected to greatly alter coastal landscapes across the globe. Historically, many coastal ecosystems have responded to sea-level fluctuations via horizontal and vertical movement on the landscape. However, anthropogenic activities, including urbanization and the construction of flood-prevention infrastructure, can produce barriers that impede ecosystem migration. Here we show where tidal saline wetlands have the potential to migrate landward along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast, one of the most sea-level rise sensitive and wetland-rich regions of the world. Our findings can be used to identify migration corridors and develop sea-level rise adaptation strategies to help ensure the continued availability of wetland-associated ecosystem goods and services.

  1. The Potential Effect of Sea Level Rise on Coastal Property Values

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Donnell, J.

    2015-12-01

    It is well established that one consequence of increasing global sea level is that the frequency of flooding at low-lying coastal sites will increase. We review recent evidence that the effects coastal geometry will create substantial spatial variations in the changes in flooding frequency with scales of order 100km. Using a simple model of the evolution of coastal property values we demonstrate that a consequence of sea level rise is that the appreciation of coastal properties will peak, and then decline relative to higher properties. The time when the value reach a maximum is shown to depend upon the demand for the coastal property, and the local rate of change of flooding frequency due to sea level rise. The simple model is then extended to include, in an elementary manner, the effects on the value of adjacent but higher properties. We show that the effect of increased flooding frequency of the lower properties leads to an accelerated appreciation of the value of upland properties and an accelerated decline in the value of the coastal properties. We then provide some example calculations for selected sites. We conclude with a discussion of comparisons of the prediction of the analyses to recent data, and then comments on the impact of sea level rise on tax base of coastal communities.

  2. Global Coastal Exposure due to Sea-level Rise beyond Tipping Points with Multiple Warming Pathways

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tawatari, R.; Iseri, Y.; Kiguchi, M.; Kanae, S.

    2016-12-01

    Sea-level is observed and estimated to continue rising. In the future, the rise could be abrupt and irreversible in century to millennial timescale even if we conduct strong reduction of greenhouse gas emission. Greenland ice sheet and West Antarctic ice sheet are considered as attributable climate systems which would significantly enhance presently-projected sea-level rise by several meters if global mean temperature passes certain "Tipping points" which would exist around +1-5 degree Celsius above present temperature (1980-1999 average). Therefore, vulnerable coastal low-lying area, especially small islands, deltas or poor developing countries, would suffer from semi-permanent inundation and forced to counteract due to the enhanced sea-level rise. This study estimate range of sea-level rise until the year 2300 and 3000 considering excess of tipping points with using multiple levels of temperature scenarios which consist of excess tipping points and non-excess tipping points pathways. We extract state-of-the-art knowledge of tipping elements from paper reviewing to express reasonable relationship between temperature and abruptly-changing sea-level transition across the ages. This study also calculate coastal exposure globally as affected population, area and asset below the estimated sea-level for each countries with overlaying 30 arc-second gridded topography, population distribution and the sea-level. The result indicates which country would be critically affected if we follow overshooting pathways. Furthermore, this study visualize uncertain coastal exposure due to sea-level rise in the future from the multiple warming pathways. This estimation of possible future beyond tipping point would be useful information for decision-makers to establish new planning of defense, migration or mitigation for the future societies.

  3. Water Quality and Hydrology of Whitefish (Bardon) Lake, Douglas County, Wisconsin, With Special Emphasis on Responses of an Oligotrophic Seepage Lake to Changes in Phosphorus Loading and Water Level

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Robertson, Dale M.; Rose, William J.; Juckem, Paul F.

    2009-01-01

    Whitefish Lake, which is officially named Bardon Lake, is an oligotrophic, soft-water seepage lake in northwestern Wisconsin, and classified by the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources as an Outstanding Resource Water. Ongoing monitoring of the lake demonstrated that its water quality began to degrade (increased phosphorus and chlorophyll a concentrations) around 2002 following a period of high water level. To provide a better understanding of what caused the degradation in water quality, and provide information to better understand the lake and protect it from future degradation, the U.S. Geological Survey did a detailed study from 2004 to 2008. The goals of the study were to describe the past and present water quality of the lake, quantify water and phosphorus budgets for the lake, simulate the potential effects of changes in phosphorus inputs on the lake's water quality, analyze changes in the water level in the lake since 1900, and relate the importance of changes in climate and changes in anthropogenic (human-induced) factors in the watershed to the water quality of the lake. Since 1998, total phosphorus concentrations increased from near the 0.005-milligrams per liter (mg/L) detection limit to about 0.010 mg/L in 2006, and then decreased slightly in 2007-08. During this time, chlorophyll a concentrations and Secchi depths remained relatively stable at about 1.5 micrograms per liter (ug/L) and 26 feet, respectively. Whitefish Lake is typically classified as oligotrophic. Because the productivity in Whitefish Lake is limited by phosphorus, phosphorus budgets were constructed for the lake. Because it was believed that much of its phosphorus comes from the atmosphere, phosphorus deposition was measured in this study. Phosphorus input from the atmosphere was greater than computed based on previously reported wetfall phosphorus concentrations. The concentrations and deposition rates can be used to estimate atmospheric loading in future lake studies. The

  4. Lake levels and water quality in comparison to fish mercury body burdens, Voyageurs National Park, Minnesota, 2013–15

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Christensen, Victoria G.; Larson, James H.; Maki, Ryan P.; Sandheinrich, Mark B.; Brigham, Mark E.; Kissane, Claire; LeDuc, Jamie F.

    2017-01-18

    Within Voyageurs National Park in Minnesota, lake levels are controlled by a series of dams to support a variety of uses. Previous research indicates a link between these artificially maintained water levels, referred to as rule curves, and mercury concentrations in fish owing to the drying and rewetting of wetlands and other nearshore areas, which may release methylmercury into the water when inundated. The U.S. Geological Survey, National Park Service, and University of Wisconsin-La Crosse cooperated in a study to assess the importance of lake-level fluctuation and other factors affecting mercury concentrations in Perca flavescens (yellow perch) in the lakes of Voyageurs National Park. For this study, mercury body burdens were determined for young-of-the-year yellow perch collected from the large lakes within Voyageurs National Park during 2013–15. These mercury body burdens were compared to lake levels and water-quality constituents from the same period.Field properties and profiles of lake water quality indicated that Sand Point, Little Vermilion, and Crane Lakes were anoxic at times near the lake bottom sediments, where sulfate-reducing bacteria may convert mercury to methylmercury. The median dissolved sulfate concentration was highest in Crane Lake, the median total organic carbon concentration was highest in Sand Point Lake, and the median total phosphorus concentration was highest in Kabetogama Lake, all of which is consistent with previous research. All lakes had median chlorophyll a concentrations of 3.6 micrograms per liter or less with the exception of Kabetogama Lake, where the median concentrations were 4.3 micrograms per liter for the midlake sites and 7.1 micrograms per liter and 9.0 micrograms per liter for the nearshore sites.Mercury concentrations in sampled fish varied widely between years and among lakes, from 14.7 nanograms per gram in fish samples from Kabetogama Lake in 2015 to 178 nanograms per gram in fish samples from Crane Lake in

  5. Evaporation from a temperate closed-basin lake and its impact on present, past, and future water level

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiao, K.; Griffis, T. J.; Baker, J. M.; Bolstad, P. V.; Erickson, M. D.; Lee, X.; Wood, J. D.; Hu, C.

    2017-12-01

    Lakes provide enormous economic, recreational, and aesthetic benefits to citizens. These ecosystem services may be adversely impacted by climate change. In the Twin Cities Metropolitan Area of Minnesota, USA, many lakes have been at historic low levels and water augmentation strategies have been proposed to alleviate the problem. For example, the water level of White Bear Lake (WBL) declined 1.5 m during 2003-2013 for reasons that are not fully understood. This study examined current, past, and future lake evaporation to better understand how climate will impact the water balance of lakes within this region. Evaporation from WBL was measured from July 2014 to February 2017 using two eddy covariance (EC) systems to provide better constraints on the water budget and to investigate the impact of evaporation on lake level. The annual evaporation for years 2014 through 2016 were 559±22 mm, 779±81 mm, and 766±11 mm, respectively. The larger evaporation in 2015 and 2016 was caused by the combined effects of larger average daily evaporation and a longer ice-free season. The EC measurements were used to tune the Community Land Model 4 - Lake, Ice, Snow and Sediment Simulator (CLM4-LISSS) to estimate lake evaporation over the period 1979-2016. Retrospective analyses indicated that WBL evaporation increased by about 3.8 mm yr-1. Mass balance analysis implied that the lake level declines at WBL during 1986-1990 and 2003-2012 were mainly caused by the coupled low precipitation and high evaporation. Using a business-as-usual greenhouse gas emission scenario (RCP8.5), lake evaporation was modeled forward in time from 2017 to 2100. Annual evaporation is expected to increase by 1.4 mm yr-1 over this century, which is largely driven by lengthening ice-free periods. These changes in ice phenology and evaporation will have important implications for the regional water balance, and water management and water augmentation strategies that are being proposed for these Metropolitan

  6. Seasonal distribution of vitamin B12 in Lake Kinneret.

    PubMed Central

    Cavari, B; Grossowicz, N

    1977-01-01

    Vitamin B12 is formed in Lake Kinneret in the hypolimnion and in the sediment. The highest value of B12 recorded in the lake water was about 100 ng/liter in November and December of 1975 at a 40-m depth. The vitamin was liberated from the hypolimnion during the turnover period. This supply of the vitamin to the photic zone was accompanied by increasing biomass of Dinoflagellates, Bacillariophyta, and Chlorophyta. The decrease in the vitamin concentration, followed by an increase, is correlated with a decline and subsequent rise in the algal biomass, respectively. Cyanophyta biomass, on the other hand, increased when the vitamin concentration in the photic zone was at its lowest level. PMID:907339

  7. Potential Inundation due to Rising Sea Levels in the San Francisco Bay Region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Knowles, Noah

    2009-01-01

    An increase in the rate of sea level rise is one of the primary impacts of projected global climate change. To assess potential inundation associated with a continued acceleration of sea level rise, the highest resolution elevation data available were assembled from various sources and mosaicked to cover the land surfaces of the San Francisco Bay region. Next, to quantify high water levels throughout the bay, a hydrodynamic model of the San Francisco Estuary was driven by a projection of hourly water levels at the Presidio. This projection was based on a combination of climate model outputs and empirical models and incorporates astronomical, storm surge, El Niño, and long-term sea level rise influences. Based on the resulting data, maps of areas vulnerable to inundation were produced, corresponding to specific amounts of sea level rise and recurrence intervals. These maps portray areas where inundation will likely be an increasing concern. In the North Bay, wetland survival and developed fill areas are at risk. In Central and South bays, a key feature is the bay-ward periphery of developed areas that would be newly vulnerable to inundation. Nearly all municipalities adjacent to South Bay face this risk to some degree. For the Bay as a whole, as early as 2050 under this scenario, the one-year peak event nearly equals the 100-year peak event in 2000. Maps of vulnerable areas are presented and some implications discussed.

  8. Implications of Sea Level Rise on Coastal Flood Hazards

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roeber, V.; Li, N.; Cheung, K.; Lane, P.; Evans, R. L.; Donnelly, J. P.; Ashton, A. D.

    2012-12-01

    Recent global and local projections suggest the sea level will be on the order of 1 m or higher than the current level by the end of the century. Coastal communities and ecosystems in low-lying areas are vulnerable to impacts resulting from hurricane or large swell events in combination with sea-level rise. This study presents the implementation and results of an integrated numerical modeling package to delineate coastal inundation due to storm landfalls at future sea levels. The modeling package utilizes a suite of numerical models to capture both large-scale phenomena in the open ocean and small-scale processes in coastal areas. It contains four components to simulate (1) meteorological conditions, (2) astronomical tides and surge, (3) wave generation, propagation, and nearshore transformation, and (4) surf-zone processes and inundation onto dry land associated with a storm event. Important aspects of this package are the two-way coupling of a spectral wave model and a storm surge model as well as a detailed representation of surf and swash zone dynamics by a higher-order Boussinesq-type wave model. The package was validated with field data from Hurricane Ivan of 2005 on the US Gulf coast and applied to tropical and extratropical storm scenarios respectively at Eglin, Florida and Camp Lejeune, North Carolina. The results show a nonlinear increase of storm surge level and nearshore wave energy with a rising sea level. The exacerbated flood hazard can have major consequences for coastal communities with respect to erosion and damage to infrastructure.

  9. Can barrier islands survive sea level rise? Tidal inlets versus storm overwash

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nienhuis, J.; Lorenzo-Trueba, J.

    2017-12-01

    Barrier island response to sea level rise depends on their ability to transgress and move sediment to the back barrier, either through flood-tidal delta deposition or via storm overwash. Our understanding of these processes over decadal to centennial timescales, however, is limited and poorly constrained. We have developed a new barrier inlet environment (BRIE) model to better understand the interplay between tidal dynamics, overwash fluxes, and sea-level rise on barrier evolution. The BRIE model combines existing overwash and shoreface formulations [Lorenzo-Trueba and Ashton, 2014] with alongshore sediment transport, inlet stability [Escoffier, 1940], inlet migration and flood-tidal delta deposition [Nienhuis and Ashton, 2016]. Within BRIE, inlets can open, close, migrate, merge with other inlets, and build flood-tidal delta deposits. The model accounts for feedbacks between overwash and inlets through their mutual dependence on barrier geometry. Model results suggest that when flood-tidal delta deposition is sufficiently large, barriers require less storm overwash to transgress and aggrade during sea level rise. In particular in micro-tidal environments with asymmetric wave climates and high alongshore sediment transport, tidal inlets are effective in depositing flood-tidal deltas and constitute the majority of the transgressive sediment flux. Additionally, we show that artificial inlet stabilization (via jetty construction or maintenance dredging) can make barrier islands more vulnerable to sea level rise. Escoffier, F. F. (1940), The Stability of Tidal Inlets, Shore and Beach, 8(4), 114-115. Lorenzo-Trueba, J., and A. D. Ashton (2014), Rollover, drowning, and discontinuous retreat: Distinct modes of barrier response to sea-level rise arising from a simple morphodynamic model, J. Geophys. Res. Earth Surf., 119(4), 779-801, doi:10.1002/2013JF002941. Nienhuis, J. H., and A. D. Ashton (2016), Mechanics and rates of tidal inlet migration: Modeling and application to

  10. Modeling and Analysis of Sea-level Rise Impacts on Salinity in the Lower St. Johns River

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bacopoulos, P.

    2015-12-01

    There is deliberate attention being paid to studying sea-level rise impacts on the lower St. Johns River, a drowned coastal plain-type estuary with low topographic drive, located in northeastern Florida. One area of attention is salinity in the river, which influences the entire food web, including sea and marsh grasses, juvenile crustaceans and fishes, wading birds and migratory waterfowl, marine mammals and other predator animals. It is expected that elevated ocean levels will increase the salinity of the estuarine waters, leading to deleterious effects on dependent species of the river biology. The objective of the modeling and analysis was: 1) to establish baseline conditions of salinity for the lower St. Johns River; and 2) to examine future conditions of salinity, as impacted by sea-level rise. Establishing baseline conditions entailed validation of the model for present-day salinity in the lower St. Johns River via comparison to available data. Examining future conditions entailed application of the model for sea-level rise scenarios, with comparison to the baseline conditions, for evaluation of sea-level rise impacts on salinity. While the central focus was on the physics of sea-level rise impacts on salinity, some level of salinity-biological assessment was conducted to identify sea-level rise/salinity thresholds, as related to negatively impacting different species of the river biology.

  11. Model projections of rapid sea-level rise on the northeast coast of the United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yin, Jianjun; Schlesinger, Michael E.; Stouffer, Ronald J.

    2009-04-01

    Human-induced climate change could cause global sea-level rise. Through the dynamic adjustment of the sea surface in response to a possible slowdown of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, a warming climate could also affect regional sea levels, especially in the North Atlantic region, leading to high vulnerability for low-lying Florida and western Europe. Here we analyse climate projections from a set of state-of-the-art climate models for such regional changes, and find a rapid dynamical rise in sea level on the northeast coast of the United States during the twenty-first century. For New York City, the rise due to ocean circulation changes amounts to 15, 20 and 21cm for scenarios with low, medium and high rates of emissions respectively, at a similar magnitude to expected global thermal expansion. Analysing one of the climate models in detail, we find that a dynamic, regional rise in sea level is induced by a weakening meridional overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean, and superimposed on the global mean sea-level rise. We conclude that together, future changes in sea level and ocean circulation will have a greater effect on the heavily populated northeastern United States than estimated previously.

  12. Model Projections of Rapid Sea-Level Rise on the Northeast Coast of the United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yin, J.; Schlesinger, M.; Stouffer, R. J.

    2009-12-01

    Human-induced climate change could cause global sea-level rise. Through the dynamic adjustment of the sea surface in response to a possible slowdown of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, a warming climate could also affect regional sea levels, especially in the North Atlantic region, leading to high vulnerability for low-lying Florida and western Europe. In the present study, we analyse climate projections from a set of state-of-the-art climate models for such regional changes, and find a rapid dynamical rise in sea level on the northeast coast of the United States during the twenty-first century. For New York City, the rise due to ocean circulation changes amounts to 15, 20 and 21 cm for scenarios with low, medium and high rates of emissions respectively, at a similar magnitude to expected global thermal expansion. Analysing one of the climate models in detail, we find that a dynamic, regional rise in sea level is induced by a weakening meridional overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean, and superimposed on the global mean sea level rise. We conclude that together, future changes in sea level and ocean circulation will have a greater effect on the heavily populated northeastern United States than estimated previously.

  13. Preparing for Sea-level Rise: Conflicts and Opportunities in Coastal Wetlands Coexisting with Infrastructure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rodriguez, J. F.; Saco, P. M.; Sandi, S. G.; Saintilan, N.; Riccardi, G.

    2017-12-01

    Even though on a large scale the sustainability and resilience of coastal wetlands to sea-level rise depends on the slope of the landscape and a balance between the rates of soil accretion and the sea-level rise, local man-made flow disturbances can have comparable effects. Coastal infrastructure controlling flow in the wetlands can pose an additional constraint on the adaptive capacity of these ecosystems, but can also present opportunities for targeted flow management to increase their resilience. Coastal wetlands in SE Australia are heavily managed and typically present infrastructure including flow control devices. How these flow control structures are operated respond to different ecological conservation objectives (i.e. bird, frog or fish habitat) that can sometimes be mutually exclusive. For example, promoting mangrove establishment to enhance fish habitat results in saltmarsh decline thus affecting bird habitat. Moreover, sea-level rise will change hydraulic conditions in wetlands and may result in some flow control structures and strategies becoming obsolete or even counterproductive. In order to address these problems and in support of future management of flows in coastal wetlands, we have developed a predictive tool for long-term wetland evolution that incorporates the effects of infrastructure and other perturbations to the tidal flow within the wetland (i.e. vegetation resistance) and determines how these flow conditions affect vegetation establishment and survival. We use the model to support management and analyse different scenarios of sea-level rise and flow control measures aimed at preserving bird habitat. Our results show that sea-level rise affects the efficiency of management measures and in some cases may completely override their effect. It also shows the potential of targeted flow management to compensate for the effects of sea-level rise.

  14. [Vulnerability assessment on the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary under sea-level rise].

    PubMed

    Cui, Li-Fang; Wang, Ning; Ge, Zhen-Ming; Zhang, Li-Quan

    2014-02-01

    To study the response of coastal wetlands to climate change, assess the impacts of climate change on the coastal wetlands and formulate feasible and practical mitigation strategies are the important prerequisite for securing coastal ecosystems. In this paper, the possible impacts of sea level rise caused by climate change on the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary were analyzed by the Source-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence (SPRC) model and IPCC definition on the vulnerability. An indicator system for vulnerability assessment was established, in which sea-level rise rate, subsidence rate, habitat elevation, inundation threshold of habitat and sedimentation rate were selected as the key indicators. A quantitatively spatial assessment method based on the GIS platform was established by quantifying each indicator, calculating the vulnerability index and grading the vulnerability index for the assessment of coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary under the scenarios of sea-level rise. The vulnerability assessments on the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary in 2030 and 2050 were performed under two sea-level rise scenarios (the present sea-level rise trend over recent 30 years and IPCC A1F1 scenario). The results showed that with the projection in 2030 under the present trend of sea-level rise (0.26 cm x a(-1)), 6.6% and 0.1% of the coastal wetlands were in the low and moderate vulnerabilities, respectively; and in 2050, 9.8% and 0.2% of the coastal wetlands were in low and moderate vulnerabilities, respectively. With the projection in 2030 under the A1F1 scenario (0.59 cm x a(-1)), 9.0% and 0.1% of the coastal wetlands were in the low and moderate vulnerabilities, respectively; and in 2050, 9.5%, 1.0% and 0.3% of the coastal wetlands were in the low, moderate and high vulnerabilities, respectively.

  15. Rising Pulpwood Prices Stimulate Largest Lake States Pulpwood Harvest, 1966

    Treesearch

    James E. Blyth

    1967-01-01

    The 1966 Lake States pulpwood harvest climbed to 4 1/2 million cords, an 18 percent increase from 1965. Woods labor continued to be scarce, but a better logging season coupled with the higher prices provided the incentive for reaching the record harvest.

  16. Seasonal mercury levels in phytoplankton and their relationship with algal biomass in two dystrophic shield lakes

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Kirkwood, A.E.; Chow-Fraser, P.; Mierle, G.

    1999-03-01

    This study focused on the seasonal dynamics of total Hg in the phytoplankton (living and dead) of two dystrophic shield lakes (Mouse and Ranger). Phytoplankton samples were taken from metalimnetic and hypolimnetic depths in the euphotic zone and were collected and analyzed using ultraclean techniques. In both lakes, phytoplankton Hg (PHYTO-Hg) levels (pg/L) in the metalimnion did not significantly change among dates over the season, although Ranger Lake exhibited significant differences between Hg values measured at the beginning and end of the season. In contrast, PHYTO-Hg significantly increased in the hypolimnia of both lakes by the end of the season.more » Combined influences of external Hg inputs, remineralization, phytoplankton sedimentation, and increased methylmercury production in the hypolimnia over the season may have contributed to these trends. A highly significant positive relationship existed between PHYTO-Hg levels and whole-water Hg levels, and the mean bioconcentration factor for Hg between the water column and phytoplankton was significantly higher in the hypolimnion compared to the metalimnion for both lakes. In most cases, parameters associated with algal biomass had significant positive correlations with PHYTO-Hg levels. Weight-specific PHYTO-Hg (pg/mg dry weight) varied significantly over the season, and there were interlake differences with respect to season trends. On the basis of these results, the authors recommend that the future sampling regimes include collection of phytoplankton at different limnetic depths through the season to account for spatial and temporal variations. Weight specific Hg levels in phytoplankton could not be explained well by the parameters tested, and the only significant regressions were with parameters reflecting algal biomass. This study provides in situ evidence of Hg accumulation in lake phytoplankton as a function of algal biomass on a seasonal basis and stresses the need to confirm these trends in other

  17. Developing a Learning Progression for Sea Level Rise, a Major Impact of Climate Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Breslyn, Wayne; McGinnis, J. Randy; McDonald, R. Christopher; Hestness, Emily

    2016-01-01

    We present research from an investigation on developing a learning progression (LP) for sea level rise (SLR), a major effect of global climate change. We began our research by drafting a hypothetical LP for sea level rise, informed by extant knowledge of the topic in the scientific community, in science education literature, and in science…

  18. A High School Project Seminar on Sea Level Rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seitz, M.; Bosch, W.

    2012-04-01

    In Bavaria the curriculum of the upper grade of high school includes a so called project seminar, running over one and a half year. The aims of the seminar are to let the pupils learn to work on a specific topic, to organize themselves in a team, to improve their soft skills and become familiar with the working life. The topic of the project seminar, jointly organized by the Bertold-Brecht-Gymnasium in Munich and the Deutsche Geodätische Forschungsinstitut (DGFI) was on the "Global sea level rise". A team of 13 pupils computed the mean sea level rise by using on the one hand altimetry data of TOPEX, Jason-1 and Jason2 and on the other hand data of globally distributed tide gauges, corrected for vertical crustal movements derived from GPS products. The results of the two independent approaches were compared with each other and discussed considering also statements and discussions found in press, TV, and the web. Finally, a presentation was prepared and presented at school.

  19. Lava lake level as a gauge of magma reservoir pressure and eruptive hazard

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Patrick, Matthew R.; Anderson, Kyle R.; Poland, Michael P.; Orr, Tim R.; Swanson, Donald A.

    2015-01-01

    Forecasting volcanic activity relies fundamentally on tracking magma pressure through the use of proxies, such as ground surface deformation and earthquake rates. Lava lakes at open-vent basaltic volcanoes provide a window into the uppermost magma system for gauging reservoir pressure changes more directly. At Kīlauea Volcano (Hawaiʻi, USA) the surface height of the summit lava lake in Halemaʻumaʻu Crater fluctuates with surface deformation over short (hours to days) and long (weeks to months) time scales. This correlation implies that the lake behaves as a simple piezometer of the subsurface magma reservoir. Changes in lava level and summit deformation scale with (and shortly precede) changes in eruption rate from Kīlauea's East Rift Zone, indicating that summit lava level can be used for short-term forecasting of rift zone activity and associated hazards at Kīlauea.

  20. Hydrology of Indiana lakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Perrey, Joseph Irving; Corbett, Don Melvin

    1956-01-01

    The stabilization of lake levels often requires the construction of outlet control structures. A detailed study of past lake-level elevations and other hydologic date is necessary to establish a level that can be maintained and to determine the means necessary for maintaining the established level. Detailed lake-level records for 28 lakes are included in the report, and records for over 100 other lakes data are available in the U.S. Geological Survey Office, Indianapolis, Ind. Evaporation data from the four Class A evaporation station of the U. S. Weather Bureau have been compiled in this report. A table showing the established legal lake level and related data is included.

  1. Plants Regulate Soil Organic Matter Decomposition in Response to Sea Level Rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Megonigal, P.; Mueller, P.; Jensen, K.

    2014-12-01

    Tidal wetlands have a large capacity for producing and storing organic matter, making their role in the global carbon budget disproportionate to their land area. Most of the organic matter stored in these systems is in soils where it contributes 2-5 times more to surface accretion than an equal mass of minerals. Soil organic matter (SOM) sequestration is the primary process by which tidal wetlands become perched high in the tidal frame, decreasing their vulnerability to accelerated sea level rise. Plant growth responses to sea level rise are well understood and represented in century-scale forecast models of soil surface elevation change. We understand far less about the response of soil organic matter decomposition to rapid sea level rise. Here we quantified the effects of sea level on SOM decomposition rates by exposing planted and unplanted tidal marsh monoliths to experimentally manipulated flood duration. The study was performed in a field-based mesocosm facility at the Smithsonian's Global Change Research Wetland. SOM decomposition rate was quantified as CO2 efflux, with plant- and SOM-derived CO2 separated with a two end-member δ13C-CO2 model. Despite the dogma that decomposition rates are inversely related to flooding, SOM mineralization was not sensitive to flood duration over a 35 cm range in soil surface elevation. However, decomposition rates were strongly and positively related to aboveground biomass (R2≥0.59, p≤0.01). We conclude that soil carbon loss through decomposition is driven by plant responses to sea level in this intensively studied tidal marsh. If this result applies more generally to tidal wetlands, it has important implications for modeling soil organic matter and surface elevation change in response to accelerated sea level rise.

  2. Late Quaternary lake-level changes constrained by radiocarbon and stable isotope studies on sediment cores from Lake Titicaca, South America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rowe, Harold D.; Guilderson, Thomas P.; Dunbar, Robert B.; Southon, John R.; Seltzer, Geoffrey O.; Mucciarone, David A.; Fritz, Sherilyn C.; Baker, Paul A.

    2003-09-01

    developed for the Lake Titicaca sequence using different organic fractions, mobile organic sub-fractions and fractions containing mobile sub-fractions should generally be avoided in geochronology studies. Consequently, we believe humin and/or bulk decalcified ages provide the most consistent chronologies for the post-13,500 yr BP interval, and humin ages provide the most representative ages for sedimentation prior to 13,500 yr BP interval. Using the age model derived from the deep water core site and a previously published isotope-based lake-level reconstruction, we present a qualitative record of lake level in the context of several ice-core records from the western hemisphere. We find the latest Pleistocene lake-level response to changing insolation began during or just prior to the Bølling/Allerød period. Using the isotope-based lake-level reconstruction, we also find the 85-m drop in lake level that occurred during the mid-Holocene was synchronous with an increase in the variability of ice-core δ18O from a nearby icecap, but was not reflected in any of the polar ice-core records recovered from the interior of Antarctica and Greenland.

  3. Climate-change-driven accelerated sea-level rise detected in the altimeter era.

    PubMed

    Nerem, R S; Beckley, B D; Fasullo, J T; Hamlington, B D; Masters, D; Mitchum, G T

    2018-02-27

    Using a 25-y time series of precision satellite altimeter data from TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, Jason-2, and Jason-3, we estimate the climate-change-driven acceleration of global mean sea level over the last 25 y to be 0.084 ± 0.025 mm/y 2 Coupled with the average climate-change-driven rate of sea level rise over these same 25 y of 2.9 mm/y, simple extrapolation of the quadratic implies global mean sea level could rise 65 ± 12 cm by 2100 compared with 2005, roughly in agreement with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5) model projections. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

  4. Predicting Late Winter Dissolved Oxygen Levels in Arctic Lakes Using Morphology and Landscape Metrics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leppi, Jason C.; Arp, Christopher D.; Whitman, Matthew S.

    2016-02-01

    Overwintering habitat for Arctic freshwater fish is essential, such that understanding the distribution of winter habitat quality at the landscape-scale is warranted. Adequate dissolved oxygen (DO) is a major factor limiting habitat quality in the Arctic region where ice cover can persist for 8 months each year. Here we use a mixed-effect model developed from 20 lakes across northern Alaska to assess which morphology and landscape attributes can be used to predict regional overwintering habitat quality. Across all lakes, we found that the majority of the variations in late winter DO can be explained by lake depth and littoral area. In shallow lakes (<4 m), we found evidence that additional variables such as elevation, lake area, ice cover duration, and snow depth were associated with DO regimes. Low DO regimes were most typical of shallow lakes with large littoral areas and lakes that had high DO regimes often were lakes with limited littoral areas and deeper water. Our analysis identifies metrics that relate to late winter DO regimes in Arctic lakes that can aid managers in understanding which lakes will likely provide optimum DO for overwintering habitat. Conversely, lakes which predicted to have marginal winter DO levels may be vulnerable to disturbances that could lower DO below critical thresholds to support sensitive fish. In regions where lakes are also used by humans for industrial winter water supply, such as ice-road construction for oil and gas development, these findings will be vital for the management of resources and protection of Arctic fish.

  5. Predicting Late Winter Dissolved Oxygen Levels in Arctic Lakes Using Morphology and Landscape Metrics.

    PubMed

    Leppi, Jason C; Arp, Christopher D; Whitman, Matthew S

    2016-02-01

    Overwintering habitat for Arctic freshwater fish is essential, such that understanding the distribution of winter habitat quality at the landscape-scale is warranted. Adequate dissolved oxygen (DO) is a major factor limiting habitat quality in the Arctic region where ice cover can persist for 8 months each year. Here we use a mixed-effect model developed from 20 lakes across northern Alaska to assess which morphology and landscape attributes can be used to predict regional overwintering habitat quality. Across all lakes, we found that the majority of the variations in late winter DO can be explained by lake depth and littoral area. In shallow lakes (<4 m), we found evidence that additional variables such as elevation, lake area, ice cover duration, and snow depth were associated with DO regimes. Low DO regimes were most typical of shallow lakes with large littoral areas and lakes that had high DO regimes often were lakes with limited littoral areas and deeper water. Our analysis identifies metrics that relate to late winter DO regimes in Arctic lakes that can aid managers in understanding which lakes will likely provide optimum DO for overwintering habitat. Conversely, lakes which predicted to have marginal winter DO levels may be vulnerable to disturbances that could lower DO below critical thresholds to support sensitive fish. In regions where lakes are also used by humans for industrial winter water supply, such as ice-road construction for oil and gas development, these findings will be vital for the management of resources and protection of Arctic fish.

  6. Geomorphic and sedimentologic evidence for the separation of Lake Superior from Lake Michigan and Huron

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnston, J.W.; Thompson, T.A.; Wilcox, D.A.; Baedke, S.J.

    2007-01-01

    A common break was recognized in four Lake Superior strandplain sequences using geomorphic and sedimentologic characteristics. Strandplains were divided into lakeward and landward sets of beach ridges using aerial photographs and topographic surveys to identify similar surficial features and core data to identify similar subsurface features. Cross-strandplain, elevation-trend changes from a lowering towards the lake in the landward set of beach ridges to a rise or reduction of slope towards the lake in the lakeward set of beach ridges indicates that the break is associated with an outlet change for Lake Superior. Correlation of this break between study sites and age model results for the strandplain sequences suggest that the outlet change occurred sometime after about 2,400 calendar years ago (after the Algoma phase). Age model results from one site (Grand Traverse Bay) suggest an alternate age closer to about 1,200 calendar years ago but age models need to be investigated further. The landward part of the strandplain was deposited when water levels were common in all three upper Great Lakes basins (Superior, Huron, and Michigan) and drained through the Port Huron/Sarnia outlet. The lakeward part was deposited after the Sault outlet started to help regulate water levels in the Lake Superior basin. The landward beach ridges are commonly better defined and continuous across the embayments, more numerous, larger in relief, wider, have greater vegetation density, and intervening swales contain more standing water and peat than the lakeward set. Changes in drainage patterns, foreshore sediment thickness and grain size help in identifying the break between sets in the strandplain sequences. Investigation of these breaks may help identify possible gaps in the record or missing ridges in strandplain sequences that may not be apparent when viewing age distributions and may justify the need for multiple age and glacial isostatic adjustment models. ?? 2006 Springer Science

  7. Assessing the potential hydrological impact of the Gibe III Dam on Lake Turkana water level using multi-source satellite data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Velpuri, Naga Manohar; Senay, Gabriel B.

    2012-01-01

    Lake Turkana, the largest desert lake in the world, is fed by ungauged or poorly gauged river systems. To meet the demand of electricity in the East African region, Ethiopia is currently building the Gibe III hydroelectric dam on the Omo River, which supplies more than 80% of the inflows to Lake Turkana. On completion, the Gibe III dam will be the tallest dam in Africa with a height of 241 m. However, the nature of interactions and potential impacts of regulated inflows to Lake Turkana are not well understood due to its remote location and unavailability of reliable in-situ datasets. In this study, we used 12 years (1998–2009) of existing multi-source satellite and model-assimilated global weather data. We use calibrated multi-source satellite data-driven water balance model for Lake Turkana that takes into account model routed runoff, lake/reservoir evapotranspiration, direct rain on lakes/reservoirs and releases from the dam to compute lake water levels. The model evaluates the impact of Gibe III dam using three different approaches such as (a historical approach, a knowledge-based approach, and a nonparametric bootstrap resampling approach) to generate rainfall-runoff scenarios. All the approaches provided comparable and consistent results. Model results indicated that the hydrological impact of the dam on Lake Turkana would vary with the magnitude and distribution of rainfall post-dam commencement. On average, the reservoir would take up to 8–10 months, after commencement, to reach a minimum operation level of 201 m depth of water. During the dam filling period, the lake level would drop up to 2 m (95% confidence) compared to the lake level modelled without the dam. The lake level variability caused by regulated inflows after the dam commissioning were found to be within the natural variability of the lake of 4.8 m. Moreover, modelling results indicated that the hydrological impact of the Gibe III dam would depend on the initial lake level at the time of

  8. Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in Great Lakes fish: Levels, patterns, trends and implications for human exposure.

    PubMed

    Gandhi, Nilima; Gewurtz, Sarah B; Drouillard, Ken G; Kolic, Terry; MacPherson, Karen; Reiner, Eric J; Bhavsar, Satyendra P

    2017-01-15

    Levels of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) were measured in edible portions of Great Lakes fish, with the goal of examining patterns/trends and evaluating implications for human exposure. A total of 470 fillets of 18 fish species collected from various parts of the Canadian waters of the Great Lakes between 2006 and 2013 were analyzed for 17 (expanded to 33 in 2009) PBDEs. For a limited number of species, fillet to whole body and fillet to eggs PBDEs were compared to examine pattern and concentration among tissue types. Levels and patterns of PBDEs varied dramatically within and among the 18 fish species. Bottom dwelling Common Carp (and White Sucker) exhibited the highest ∑PBDE levels (27-71ng/g). Lake Trout and Lake Whitefish from Lake Superior had higher levels than those from the other Great Lakes; otherwise the spatial trend was Lake Ontario≫Erie~Huron~Superior. The measured levels would result in restriction on consumption of only Common Carp from the Toronto waterfront area, which is in proximity to the most urbanised region on the Canadian side of the basin. Deca-BDE was the major congener in panfish, while BDE-47 was the major congener in top predators and its contribution to ∑PBDE increased with the contamination. Although ∑PBDE was related to fish length and lipid content when all measurements were pooled, the relationships were variable for individual sampling events (species/location/year). Whole body ∑PBDE for bottom dweller Brown Bullhead and Common Carp were 2.6-4.9 times greater and egg ∑PBDE for four fatty Salmon/Trout species were same to 6.5 times greater than the corresponding fillet concentrations. Levels of major lower brominated PBDEs appear to have declined in fish fillets by 46-74% between 2006/07 and 2012. Although PBDE in existing consumer items will remain in-use for a while, it will likely not result in appreciable accumulation of PBDEs in fish. Based on an overall assessment, regular monitoring of PBDEs in Great Lake

  9. Reconstruction of vegetation and lake level at Moon Lake, North Dakota, from high-resolution pollen and diatom data

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Grimm, E.C.; Laird, K.R.; Mueller, P.G.

    High-resolution fossil-pollen and diatom data from Moon Lake, North Dakota, reveal major climate and vegetation changes near the western margin of the tall-grass prairie. Fourteen AMS radiocarbon dates provide excellent time control for the past {approximately}11,800 {sup 14}C years B.P. Picea dominated during the late-glacial until it abruptly declined {approximately}10,300 B.P. During the early Holocene ({approximately}10,300-8000 B.P.), deciduous trees and shrubs (Populus, Betula, Corylus, Quercus, and especially Ulmus) were common, but prairie taxa (Poaceae, Artemisia, and Chenopodiaceae/Amaranthaceae) gradually increased. During this period the diatoms indicate the lake becoming gradually more saline as water-level fell. By {approximately}8000 B.P., salinity had increasedmore » to the point that the diatoms were no longer sensitive to further salinity increases. However, fluctuating pollen percentages of mud-flat weeds (Ambrosia and Iva) indicate frequently changing water levels during the mid-Holocene ({approximately}8000-5000 B.P.). The driest millennium was 7000-6000 B.P., when Iva annua was common. After {approximately}3000 B.P. the lake became less-saline, and the diatoms were again sensitive to changing salinity. The Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age are clearly evident in the diatom data.« less

  10. Morphology, volcanism, and mass wasting in Crater Lake, Oregon

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bacon, C.R.; Gardner, J.V.; Mayer, L.A.; Buktenica, M.W.; Dartnell, P.; Ramsey, D.W.; Robinson, J.E.

    2002-01-01

    . Thereafter, a gradual, climatically modulated rise in lake level to the present 1883 m produced a series of beaches culminating in a modern wave-cut platform, commonly ~40 m wide, where suitable material is present. The new survey reveals landforms that result from intermediate-composition volcanism in rising water, delineates mass wasting and sediment transport into a restricted basin, and yields a more accurate postcaldera history leading to improved assessment of volcanic hazards.

  11. Rise of Buoyant Emissions from Low-Level Sources in the Presence of Upstream and Downstream Obstacles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pournazeri, Sam; Princevac, Marko; Venkatram, Akula

    2012-08-01

    Field and laboratory studies have been conducted to investigate the effect of surrounding buildings on the plume rise from low-level buoyant sources, such as distributed power generators. The field experiments were conducted in Palm Springs, California, USA in November 2010 and plume rise from a 9.3 m stack was measured. In addition to the field study, a laboratory study was conducted in a water channel to investigate the effects of surrounding buildings on plume rise under relatively high wind-speed conditions. Different building geometries and source conditions were tested. The experiments revealed that plume rise from low-level buoyant sources is highly affected by the complex flows induced by buildings stationed upstream and downstream of the source. The laboratory results were compared with predictions from a newly developed numerical plume-rise model. Using the flow measurements associated with each building configuration, the numerical model accurately predicted plume rise from low-level buoyant sources that are influenced by buildings. This numerical plume rise model can be used as a part of a computational fluid dynamics model.

  12. Sea Level Rise Decision Support Tools for Adaptation Planning in Vulnerable Coastal Communities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rozum, J. S.; Marcy, D.

    2015-12-01

    NOAA is involved in a myriad of climate related research and projects that help decision makers and the public understand climate science as well as climate change impacts. The NOAA Office for Coastal Management (OCM) provides data, tools, trainings and technical assistance to coastal resource managers. Beginning in 2011, NOAA OCM began developing a sea level rise and coastal flooding impacts viewer which provides nationally consistent data sets and analyses to help communities with coastal management goals such as: understanding and communicating coastal flood hazards, performing vulnerability assessments and increasing coastal resilience, and prioritizing actions for different inundation/flooding scenarios. The Viewer is available on NOAA's Digital Coast platform: (coast.noaa.gov/ditgitalcoast/tools/slr). In this presentation we will share the lessons learned from our work with coastal decision-makers on the role of coastal flood risk data and tools in helping to shape future land use decisions and policies. We will also focus on a recent effort in California to help users understand the similarities and differences of a growing array of sea level rise decision support tools. NOAA staff and other partners convened a workshop entitled, "Lifting the Fog: Bringing Clarity to Sea Level Rise and Shoreline Change Models and Tools," which was attended by tool develops, science translators and coastal managers with the goal to create a collaborative communication framework to help California coastal decision-makers navigate the range of available sea level rise planning tools, and to inform tool developers of future planning needs. A sea level rise tools comparison matrix will be demonstrated. This matrix was developed as part of this effort and has been expanded to many other states via a partnership with NOAA, Climate Central, and The Nature Conservancy.

  13. Sea level rise impacts on wastewater treatment systems along the U.S. coasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hummel, M.; Berry, M.; Stacey, M. T.

    2017-12-01

    As sea levels rise, coastal communities will experience more frequent and persistent nuisance flooding, and some low-lying areas may be permanently inundated. Critical components of lifeline infrastructure networks in these areas are also at risk of flooding, which could cause significant service disruptions that extend beyond the flooded zone. Thus, identifying critical infrastructure components that are vulnerable to sea level rise is an important first step in developing targeted investment in protective actions and enhancing the overall resilience of coastal communities. Wastewater treatment plants are typically located at low elevations near the coastline to minimize the cost of collecting consumed water and discharging treated effluent, which makes them particularly susceptible to coastal flooding. For this analysis, we used geographic information systems to assess the vulnerability of wastewater infrastructure to various sea level rise projections at the national level. We then estimated the number of people who would lose wastewater services, which could be more than three times as high as previous predictions of the number of people at risk of direct flooding due to sea level rise. We also considered several case studies of wastewater infrastructure in mid-sized cities to determine how topography and system configuration (centralized versus distributed) impact vulnerability. Overall, this analysis highlights the widespread vulnerability of wastewater infrastructure in the U.S. and demonstrates that local disruptions to infrastructure networks may have far-ranging impacts on areas that do not experience direct flooding.

  14. Sea Level Rise Impacts on Wastewater Treatment Systems Along the U.S. Coasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hummel, Michelle A.; Berry, Matthew S.; Stacey, Mark T.

    2018-04-01

    As sea levels rise, coastal communities will experience more frequent and persistent nuisance flooding, and some low-lying areas may be permanently inundated. Critical components of lifeline infrastructure networks in these areas are also at risk of flooding, which could cause significant service disruptions that extend beyond the flooded zone. Thus, identifying critical infrastructure components that are exposed to sea level rise is an important first step in developing targeted investment in protective actions and enhancing the overall resilience of coastal communities. Wastewater treatment plants are typically located at low elevations near the coastline to minimize the cost of collecting consumed water and discharging treated effluent, which makes them particularly susceptible to coastal flooding. For this analysis, we used geographic information systems to assess the exposure of wastewater infrastructure to various sea level rise projections at the national level. We then estimated the number of people who would lose wastewater services, which could be more than five times as high as previous predictions of the number of people at risk of direct flooding due to sea level rise. We also performed a regional comparison of wastewater exposure to marine and groundwater flooding in the San Francisco Bay Area. Overall, this analysis highlights the widespread exposure of wastewater infrastructure in the United States and demonstrates that local disruptions to infrastructure networks may have far-ranging impacts on areas that do not experience direct flooding.

  15. Coastline Mapping and Cultural Review to Predict Sea Level Rise Impact on Hawaiian Archeological Sites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clinton, J.

    2017-12-01

    Much of Hawaii's history is recorded in archeological sites. Researchers and cultural practitioners have been studying and reconstructing significant archeological sites for generations. Climate change, and more specifically, sea level rise may threaten these sites. Our research records current sea levels and then projects possible consequences to these cultural monuments due to sea level rise. In this mixed methods study, research scientists, cultural practitioners, and secondary students use plane-table mapping techniques to create maps of coastlines and historic sites. Students compare historical records to these maps, analyze current sea level rise trends, and calculate future sea levels. They also gather data through interviews with community experts and kupuna (elders). If climate change continues at projected rates, some historic sites will be in danger of negative impact due to sea level rise. Knowing projected sea levels at specific sites allows for preventative action and contributes to raised awareness of the impacts of climate change to the Hawaiian Islands. Students will share results with the community and governmental agencies in hopes of inspiring action to minimize climate change. It will take collaboration between scientists and cultural communities to inspire future action on climate change.

  16. A simple model to estimate the impact of sea-level rise on platform beaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taborda, Rui; Ribeiro, Mónica Afonso

    2015-04-01

    Estimates of future beach evolution in response to sea-level rise are needed to assess coastal vulnerability. A research gap is identified in providing adequate predictive methods to use for platform beaches. This work describes a simple model to evaluate the effects of sea-level rise on platform beaches that relies on the conservation of beach sand volume and assumes an invariant beach profile shape. In closed systems, when compared with the Inundation Model, results show larger retreats; the differences are higher for beaches with wide berms and when the shore platform develops at shallow depths. The application of the proposed model to Cascais (Portugal) beaches, using 21st century sea-level rise scenarios, shows that there will be a significant reduction in beach width.

  17. Glacial lake evolution in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau and the cause of rapid expansion of proglacial lakes linked to glacial-hydrogeomorphic processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Song, Chunqiao; Sheng, Yongwei; Ke, Linghong; Nie, Yong; Wang, Jida

    2016-09-01

    Glacial lakes, as an important component of the cryosphere in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau (SETP) in response to climate change, pose significant threats to the downstream lives and properties of people, engineering construction, and ecological environment via outburst floods, yet we currently have limited knowledge of their distribution, evolution, and the driving mechanism of rapid expansions due to the low accessibility and harsh natural conditions. By integrating optical imagery, satellite altimetry and digital elevation model (DEM), this study presents a regional-scale investigation of glacial lake dynamics across two river basins of the SETP during 1988-2013 and further explores the glacial-hydrogeomorphic process of rapidly expanding lakes. In total 1278 and 1396 glacial lakes were inventoried in 1988 and 2013, respectively. Approximately 92.4% of the lakes in 2013 are not in contact with modern glaciers, and the remaining 7.6% includes 27 (1.9%) debris-contact lakes (in contact with debris-covered ice) and 80 (5.7%) cirque lakes. In categorizing lake variations, we found that debris-contact proglacial lakes experienced much more rapid expansions (∼75%) than cirque lakes (∼7%) and non-glacier-contact lakes (∼3%). To explore the cause of rapid expansion for these debris-contact lakes, we further investigated the mass balance of parent glaciers and elevation changes in lake surfaces and debris-covered glacier tongues using time-series Landsat images, ICESat altimetry, and DEM. Results reveal that the upstream expansion of debris-contact proglacial lakes was not directly associated with rising water levels but with a geomorphological alternation of upstream lake basins caused by melting-induced debris subsidence at glacier termini. This suggests that the hydrogeomorphic process of glacier thinning and retreat, in comparison with direct glacial meltwater alone, may have played a dominant role in the recent glacial lake expansion observed across the

  18. Sea level rise and variability around Peninsular Malaysia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tkalich, Pavel; Luu, Quang-Hung; Tay, Tze-Wei

    2014-05-01

    Peninsular Malaysia is bounded from the west by Malacca Strait and the Andaman Sea, both connected to the Indian Ocean, and from the east by South China Sea being largest marginal sea in the Pacific Basin. As a result, sea level along Peninsular Malaysia coast is assumed to be governed by various regional phenomena associated with the adjacent parts of the Indian and Pacific Oceans. At annual scale, sea level anomalies (SLAs) are generated by the Asian monsoon; interannual sea level variability is determined by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD); whilst long term sea level trend is coordinated by the global climate change. To quantify the relative impacts of these multi-scale phenomena on sea level trend and variability surrounding the Peninsular Malaysia, long-term tide gauge record and satellite altimetry are used. During 1984-2011, relative sea level rise (SLR) rates in waters of Malacca Strait and eastern Peninsular Malaysia are found to be 2.4 ± 0.8 mm/yr and 2.7 ± 0.6 mm/yr, respectively. Discounting for their vertical land movements (0.8 ± 2.6 mm/yr and 0.9 ± 2.2 mm/yr, respectively), their pure SLR rates are 1.6 ± 3.4 mm/yr and 1.8 ± 2.8 mm/yr, respectively, which are lower than the global tendency. At interannual scale, ENSO affects sea level over the Malaysian east coast in the range of ± 5 cm with very high correlation coefficient. Meanwhile, IOD modulates sea level anomalies in the Malacca Strait in the range of ± 2 cm with high correlation coefficient. Interannual regional sea level drops are associated with El Niño events and positive phases of the IOD index; while the rises are correlated with La Niña episodes and the negative periods of the IOD index. Seasonally, SLAs are mainly monsoon-driven, in the order of 10-25 cm. Geographically, sea level responds differently to the monsoon: two cycles per year are observed in the Malacca Strait, presumably due to South Asian - Indian Monsoon; while single

  19. Growth of modern branched columnar stromatolites in Lake Joyce, Antarctica.

    PubMed

    Mackey, T J; Sumner, D Y; Hawes, I; Jungblut, A D; Andersen, D T

    2015-07-01

    Modern decimeter-scale columnar stromatolites from Lake Joyce, Antarctica, show a change in branching pattern during a period of lake level rise. Branching patterns correspond to a change in cyanobacterial community composition as preserved in authigenic calcite crystals. The transition in stromatolite morphology is preserved by mineralized layers that contain microfossils and cylindrical molds of cyanobacterial filaments. The molds are composed of two populations with different diameters. Large diameter molds (>2.8 μm) are abundant in calcite forming the oldest stromatolite layers, but are absent from younger layers. In contrast, <2.3 μm diameter molds are common in all stromatolites layers. Loss of large diameter molds corresponds to the transition from smooth-sided stromatolitic columns to branched and irregular columns. Mold diameters are similar to trichome diameters of the four most abundant living cyanobacteria morphotypes in Lake Joyce: Phormidium autumnale morphotypes have trichome diameters >3.5 μm, whereas Leptolyngbya antarctica, L. fragilis, and Pseudanabaena frigida morphotypes have diameters <2.3 μm. P. autumnale morphotypes were only common in mats at <12 m depth. Mats containing abundant P. autumnale morphotypes were smooth, whereas mats with few P. autumnale morphotypes contained small peaks and protruding bundles of filaments, suggesting that the absence of P. autumnale morphotypes allowed small-scale topography to develop on mats. Comparisons of living filaments and mold diameters suggest that P. autumnale morphotypes were present early in stromatolite growth, but disappeared from the community through time. We hypothesize that the mat-smoothing behavior of P. autumnale morphotypes inhibited nucleation of stromatolite branches. When P. autumnale morphotypes were excluded from the community, potentially reflecting a rise in lake level, short-wavelength roughness provided nuclei for stromatolite branches. This growth history provides a

  20. Final report for sea-level rise response modeling for San Francisco Bay estuary tidal marshes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Takekawa, John Y.; Thorne, Karen M.; Buffington, Kevin J.; Spragens, Kyle A.; Swanson, Kathleen M.; Drexler, Judith Z.; Schoellhamer, David H.; Overton, Cory T.; Casazza, Michael L.

    2013-01-01

    The International Panel on Climate Change has identified coastal ecosystems as areas that will be disproportionally affected by climate change. Current sea-level rise projections range widely with 0.57 to 1.9 meters increase in mea sea level by 2100. The expected accelerated rate of sea-level rise through the 21st century will put many coastal ecosystems at risk, especially those in topographically low-gradient areas. We assessed marsh accretion and plant community state changes through 2100 at 12 tidal salt marshes around San Francisco Bay estuary with a sea-level rise response model. Detailed ground elevation, vegetation, and water level data were collected at all sites between 2008 and 2011 and used as model inputs. Sediment cores (taken by Callaway and others, 2012) at four sites around San Francisco Bay estuary were used to estimate accretion rates. A modification of the Callaway and others (1996) model, the Wetland Accretion Rate Model for Ecosystem Resilience (WARMER), was utilized to run sea-level rise response models for all sites. With a mean sea level rise of 1.24 m by 2100, WARMER projected that the vast majority, 95.8 percent (1,942 hectares), of marsh area in our study will lose marsh plant communities by 2100 and to transition to a relative elevation range consistent with mudflat habitat. Three marshes were projected to maintain marsh vegetation to 2100, but they only composed 4.2 percent (85 hectares) of the total marsh area surveyed.

  1. Mountain lakes of Russian subarctic as markers of air pollution: Acidification, metals and paleoecology

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Moiseenko, T.I.; Dauvalter, V.A.; Kagan, L.Y.

    1996-12-31

    The Kola Peninsula mountain lakes reflect a real situation not only of the local air pollution but also polluted transborder emissions from Europe to Arctic and they are of interest for early detection and monitoring for acidification and pollution by heavy metals. Two monitoring mountain lakes had a discrepancy by their resistance to acidification: the Chuna lake is vulnerable and the Chibiny one is not, respectively. Despite the Chuna and Chibiny lakes are close tone of the main heavy metal pollution sources of the Kola Peninsula - smelters of the Severonickel Company, local emissions very slightly affect the mountain lakes,more » because heavily polluted air masses do not rise in altitude. Sulfur deposition on the Chuna lake catchment is 0.4 gSm{sup -2}, Chibiny lake is 0.6 gSm{sup -2}. In comparison with area at the foot of the mountain (less than 200 m above the sea level) sulfur deposition is 1.0-1.5 gSm{sup -2}. Water quality, sediment chemistry, and diatoms in sediment cores were studied.« less

  2. Holocene evolution of the Tonle Sap Lake: valley network infill and rates of sedimentation in Cambodia's Great Lake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Best, J.; Darby, S. E.; Langdon, P. G.; Hackney, C. R.; Leyland, J.; Parsons, D. R.; Aalto, R. E.; Marti, M.

    2017-12-01

    Tonle Sap Lake, the largest freshwater lake in SE Asia (c. 120km long and 35 km wide), is a vital ecosystem that provides 40-60% of the protein for the population of Cambodia. The lake is fed by flow from the Mekong River that causes the lake rise in level by c. 8m during monsoonal and cyclone-related floods, with drainage of the lake following the monsoon. Hydropower dam construction on the Mekong River has raised concerns as to the fragility of the Tonle Sap habitat due to any changing water levels and sedimentation rates within the lake. This paper details results of sub-bottom profiling surveys of Tonle Sap Lake in October 2014 that detailed the stratigraphy of the lake and assessed rates of infill. An Innomar Parametric Echo Sounder (PES) was used to obtain c. 250 km of sub-bottom profiles, with penetration up to 15m below the lake bed at a vertical resolution of c. 0.20m. These PES profiles were linked to cores from the north of the lake and previous literature. The PES profiles reveal a network of valleys, likely LGM, with relief up to c. 15-20m, that have been infilled by a suite of Holocene sediments. The valley surface is picked out as a strong reflector throughout the lake, and displays a series of valleys that are up to c. 15m deep and commonly 50-200m wide, although some of the largest valleys are 1.2km in width. Modelling of channel network incision during LGM conditions generates landscapes consistent with our field observations. The Tonle Sap valley network is infilled by sediments that show firstly fluvial and/or subaerial slope sedimentation, and then by extensive, parallel-bedded, lacustrine sedimentation. Lastly, the top c. 1m of sedimentation is marked by a distinct basal erosional surface that can be traced over much of the Tonle Sap Lake, and that is overlain by a series of parallel PES reflections. This upper sediment layer is interpreted to represent sedimentation in the Tonle Sap lake due to sediment suspension settling but after a period

  3. Relative sea-level rise as indicated by gage data along the Mississippi and Alabama Gulf Coasts

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Van Wilson, K.

    2004-01-01

    Global warming, or the increasing of earth's temperatures, leads to rising sea level as polar ice caps and mountain glaciers melt and ocean water undergoes thermal expansion. Tidal records collected by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (COE), Mobile District, at Gulfport, Biloxi, and Pascagoula, Mississippi, and at Mobile, Alabama, indicate trends of water-surface elevations increasing with time (relative sea-level rise). The trends indicated by the COE data were compared to relative sea-level trends indicated by the National Ocean Survey gages in the Gulf of Mexico. The average global rate of sea level rise has been suggested to approach about 2 mm/yr (0.007 ft/yr). Some leading scientists have suggested rates of sea level rise that are greater than 2 mm/yr, when accounting for effects of greenhouse gas emissions. As the sea level rises and inundates the coastal plain, structures along the existing coast and structures located in the back bays of estuaries will be even more adversely affected by future flooding. Also, if the land surface adjacent to the water also sinks due to soil compaction and other geologic processes (collectively call subsidence), additional land will be inundated. Copyright ASCE 2004.

  4. Evaluation of potential impacts on Great Lakes water resources based on climate scenarios of two GCMs

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lofgren, B.M.; Quinn, F.H.; Clites, A.H.; Assel, R.A.; Eberhardt, A.J.; Luukkonen, C.L.

    2002-01-01

    The results of general circulation model predictions of the effects of climate change from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis (model CGCM1) and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office's Hadley Centre (model HadCM2) have been used to derive potential impacts on the water resources of the Great Lakes basin. These impacts can influence the levels of the Great Lakes and the volumes of channel flow among them, thus affecting their value for interests such as riparians, shippers, recreational boaters, and natural ecosystems. On one hand, a hydrological modeling suite using input data from the CGCM1 predicts large drops in lake levels, up to a maximum of 1.38 m on Lakes Michigan and Huron by 2090. This is due to a combination of a decrease in precipitation and an increase in air temperature that leads to an increase in evaporation. On the other hand, using input from HadCM2, rises in lake levels are predicted, up to a maximum of 0.35 m on Lakes Michigan and Huron by 2090, due to increased precipitation and a reduced increase in air temperature. An interest satisfaction model shows sharp decreases in the satisfaction of the interests of commercial navigation, recreational boating, riparians, and hydropower due to lake level decreases. Most interest satisfaction scores are also reduced by lake level increases. Drastic reductions in ice cover also result from the temperature increases such that under the CGCM1 predictions, most of Lake Erie has 96% of its winters ice-free by 2090. Assessment is also made of impacts on the groundwater-dependent region of Lansing, Michigan.

  5. Consideration of vertical uncertainty in elevation-based sea-level rise assessments: Mobile Bay, Alabama case study

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gesch, Dean B.

    2013-01-01

    The accuracy with which coastal topography has been mapped directly affects the reliability and usefulness of elevationbased sea-level rise vulnerability assessments. Recent research has shown that the qualities of the elevation data must be well understood to properly model potential impacts. The cumulative vertical uncertainty has contributions from elevation data error, water level data uncertainties, and vertical datum and transformation uncertainties. The concepts of minimum sealevel rise increment and minimum planning timeline, important parameters for an elevation-based sea-level rise assessment, are used in recognition of the inherent vertical uncertainty of the underlying data. These concepts were applied to conduct a sea-level rise vulnerability assessment of the Mobile Bay, Alabama, region based on high-quality lidar-derived elevation data. The results that detail the area and associated resources (land cover, population, and infrastructure) vulnerable to a 1.18-m sea-level rise by the year 2100 are reported as a range of values (at the 95% confidence level) to account for the vertical uncertainty in the base data. Examination of the tabulated statistics about land cover, population, and infrastructure in the minimum and maximum vulnerable areas shows that these resources are not uniformly distributed throughout the overall vulnerable zone. The methods demonstrated in the Mobile Bay analysis provide an example of how to consider and properly account for vertical uncertainty in elevation-based sea-level rise vulnerability assessments, and the advantages of doing so.

  6. Latent fluctuation periods and long-term forecasting of the level of Markakol lake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Madibekov, A. S.; Babkin, A. V.; Musakulkyzy, A.; Cherednichenko, A. V.

    2018-01-01

    The analysis of time series of the level of Markakol Lake by the method of “Periodicities” reveals in its variations the harmonics with the periods of 12 and 14 years, respectively. The verification forecasts of the lake level by the trend tendency and by its combination with these sinusoids were computed with the lead time of 5 and 10 years. The estimation of the forecast results by the new independent data permitted to conclude that forecasts by the combination of the sinusoids and trend tendency are better than by the trend tendency only. They are no worse than the mean value prediction.

  7. The 87Sr/86Sr ratios of lacustrine carbonates and lake-level history of the Bonneville paleolake system

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hart, W.S.; Quade, Jay; Madsen, D.B.; Kaufman, D.S.; Oviatt, Charles G.

    2004-01-01

    Lakes in the Bonneville basin have fluctuated dramatically in response to changes in rainfall, temperature, and drainage diversion during the Quaternary. We analyzed tufas and shells from shorelines of known ages in order to develop a relation between 87Sr/86Sr ratio of carbonates and lake level, which then can be used as a basis for constraining lake level from similar analyses on carbonates in cores. Carbonates from the late Quaternary shorelines yield the following average 87Sr/86Sr ratios: 0.71173 for the Stansbury shoreline (22-20 14C ka; 1350 m), 0.71153 for the Bonneville shoreline (15.5-14.5 14C ka; 1550 m), 0.71175 for the Provo shoreline (14.4-14.0 14C ka; 1450 m), 0.71244 for the Gilbert shoreline (???10.3-10.9 14C ka; 1300 m), and 0.71469 for the modern Great Salt Lake (1280 m). These analyses show that the 87Sr/86Sr ratio of lacustrine carbonates changes substantially at low- to mid-lake levels but is invariant at mid- to high-lake levels. Sr-isotope mixing models of Great Salt Lake and the Bonneville paleolake system were constructed to explain these variations in 87Sr/86Sr ratios with change in lake level. Our model of the Bonneville system produced a 87Sr/86Sr ratio of 0.71193, very close to the observed ratios from high-shoreline tufa and shell. The model verifies that the integration of the southern Sevier and Beaver rivers with the Bear and others rivers in the north is responsible for the lower 87Sr/86Sr ratios in Lake Bonneville compared to the modern Great Salt Lake. We also modeled the 87Sr/86Sr ratio of Lake Bonneville with the upper Bear River diverted into the Snake River basin and obtained an 87Sr/86Sr ratio of 0.71414. Coincidentally, this ratio is close to the observed ratio for Great Salt Lake of 0.71469. This means that 87Sr/86Sr ratios of >0.714 for carbonate can be produced by climatically induced low-lake conditions or by diversion of the upper Bear River out of the Bonneville basin. This model result also demonstrates that the

  8. Extreme Sea Level Rise Event Linked to 2009-10 AMOC Downturn

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yin, J.

    2016-02-01

    The coastal sea levels along the Northeast Coast of North America show significant year-to-year fluctuations in a general upward trend. Our analysis of long-term tide gauge records along the North American east coast identified an extreme sea-level rise (SLR) event during 2009-2010. Within this relatively brief two-year period, coastal sea levels north of New York City jumped by 100 mm. This magnitude of inter-annual SLR is unprecedented in the century-long tide gauge records, with statistical methods suggesting that it was a 1-in-850 year event. We show that this extreme SLR event was a combined effect of two physical factors. First, it was partly due to an observed 30% downturn of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) during 2009-2010. This AMOC slowdown caused a significant decline of the dynamic sea level gradient across the Gulf Stream and North Atlantic Current, thereby imparting a rise in coastal sea level. The second contributing factor to the extreme SLR event was due to a significant negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. The associated easterly or northeasterly wind anomalies acted to push ocean waters towards the Northeast Coast through the Ekman transport, resulting in further rise in coastal sea levels. Sea level pressure anomalies also contributed to the extreme SLR event through the inverse barometer effect. To project future extreme sea levels along the east coast of North America during the 21st century, we make use of a suite of climate/Earth system models developed at GFDL and other modeling centers. These models included typical CMIP5-class models, as well as the newer climate models GFDL CM2.5 and CM2.6 with eddying oceans. In response to the increase in greenhouse-gas concentrations, each of these models show a reduction in the AMOC. Given the observed connection between AMOC reduction and extreme coastal sea levels, the models thus project an increase in extreme SLR frequency on interannual time scales along the

  9. Combining urbanization and hydrodynamics data to evaluate sea level rise impacts on coastal water resources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Young, C. R.; Martin, J. B.

    2016-02-01

    Assessments of the potential for salt water intrusion due to sea level rise require consideration of both coastal hydrodynamic and human activity thresholds. In siliciclastic systems, sea level rise may cause salt intrusion to coastal aquifers at annual or decadal scales, whereas in karst systems salt intrudes at the tidal scalse. In both cases, human activity impacts the freshwater portion of the system by altering the water demand on the aquifer. We combine physicochemical and human activity data to evaluate impact of sea level rise on salt intrusion to siliclastic (Indian River Lagoon, Fl, USA) and karst (Puerto Morelos, Yucatan, Mexico) systems under different sea level rise rate scenarios. Two hydrodynamic modeling scenarios are considered; flux controlled and head controlled. Under a flux controlled system hydraulic head gradients remain constant during sea level rise while under a head controlled system hydraulic graidents diminish, allowing saltwater intrusion. Our model contains three key terms; aquifer recharge, groundwater discharge and hydraulic conductivity. Groundwater discharge and hydraulic conductivity were calculated based on high frequency (karst system) and decadal (siliciclastic system) field measurements. Aquifer recharge is defined as precipitation less evapotranspiration and water demand was evaluated based on urban planning data that provided the regional water demand. Water demand includes agricultural area, toursim, traffic patterns, garbage collection and total population. Water demand was initially estimated using a partial leaset squares regression based on these variables. Our model indicates that water demand depends most on agricultural area, which has changed significantly over the last 30 years. In both systems, additional water demand creates a head controlled scenario, thus increaseing the protential fo salt intrusion with projected sea level rise.

  10. Fate of water pumped from underground and contributions to sea-level rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wada, Yoshihide; Lo, Min-Hui; Yeh, Pat J.-F.; Reager, John T.; Famiglietti, James S.; Wu, Ren-Jie; Tseng, Yu-Heng

    2016-08-01

    The contributions from terrestrial water sources to sea-level rise, other than ice caps and glaciers, are highly uncertain and heavily debated. Recent assessments indicate that groundwater depletion (GWD) may become the most important positive terrestrial contribution over the next 50 years, probably equal in magnitude to the current contributions from glaciers and ice caps. However, the existing estimates assume that nearly 100% of groundwater extracted eventually ends up in the oceans. Owing to limited knowledge of the pathways and mechanisms governing the ultimate fate of pumped groundwater, the relative fraction of global GWD that contributes to sea-level rise remains unknown. Here, using a coupled climate-hydrological model simulation, we show that only 80% of GWD ends up in the ocean. An increase in runoff to the ocean accounts for roughly two-thirds, whereas the remainder results from the enhanced net flux of precipitation minus evaporation over the ocean, due to increased atmospheric vapour transport from the land to the ocean. The contribution of GWD to global sea-level rise amounted to 0.02 (+/-0.004) mm yr-1 in 1900 and increased to 0.27 (+/-0.04) mm yr-1 in 2000. This indicates that existing studies have substantially overestimated the contribution of GWD to global sea-level rise by a cumulative amount of at least 10 mm during the twentieth century and early twenty-first century. With other terrestrial water contributions included, we estimate the net terrestrial water contribution during the period 1993-2010 to be +0.12 (+/-0.04) mm yr-1, suggesting that the net terrestrial water contribution reported in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report report is probably overestimated by a factor of three.

  11. Examining Ecological and Ecosystem Level Impacts of Aquatic Invasive Species in Lake Michigan Using An Ecosystem Productivity Model, LM-Eco

    EPA Science Inventory

    Ecological and ecosystem-level impacts of aquatic invasive species in Lake Michigan were examined using the Lake Michigan Ecosystem Model (LM-Eco). The LM-Eco model includes a detailed description of trophic levels and their interactions within the lower food web of Lake Michiga...

  12. The Sea Level Rise Tipping Point of Delta Survival

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turner, R. E.; Kearney, M.; Parkinson, R. W.

    2017-12-01

    The estimated rate of global eustatic sea-level rise (RSLR) associated with the formation of thirty-six of the world's coastal deltas was calculated for the last 22,000 years. These deltas are located in a variety of environmental settings in respect to tidal range, isostasy, and climate. After correcting the original uncalibrated radiocarbon age estimates to calibrated years, 90% of the deltas appear to have formed at an average age of 8,109 ± 122 BP and a median age of 7,967 BP. This age corresponds to a period of significant deceleration in the RSLR to between 5 mm yr-1 and 10 mm yr-1, and is in agreement with two regional estimates of vegetation growth limits with respect to RSLR. This RSLR tipping point for delta formation can be used to inform forecasts of delta resiliency under conditions of climate change and concomitant sea level rise. The RSLR is accelerating and will likely be several times higher than the formation tipping point by the end of this century. Hence, the demise of the world's deltaic environments are likely to occur within the same time frame.

  13. Response of walleye and yellow perch to water-level fluctuations in glacial lakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dembkowski, D.J.; Chipps, Steven R.; Blackwell, B. G.

    2014-01-01

    The influence of water levels on population characteristics of yellow perch, Perca flavescens (Mitchill), and walleye, Sander vitreus (Mitchill), was evaluated across a range of glacial lakes in north-eastern South Dakota, USA. Results showed that natural variation in water levels had an important influence on frequently measured fish population characteristics. Yellow perch abundance was significantly (P<0.10) greater during elevated water levels. Yellow perch size structure, as indexed by the proportional size distribution of quality- and preferred-length fish (PSD and PSD-P), was significantly greater during low-water years, as was walleye PSD. Mean relative weight of walleye increased significantly during high-water periods. The dynamic and unpredictable nature of water-level fluctuations in glacial lakes ultimately adds complexity to management of these systems.

  14. Simulation of a proposed emergency outlet from Devils Lake, North Dakota

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Vecchia, Aldo V.

    2002-01-01

    From 1993 to 2001, Devils Lake rose more than 25 feet, flooding farmland, roads, and structures around the lake and causing more than $400 million in damages in the Devils Lake Basin. In July 2001, the level of Devils Lake was at 1,448.0 feet above sea level1, which was the highest lake level in more than 160 years. The lake could continue to rise to several feet above its natural spill elevation to the Sheyenne River (1,459 feet above sea level) in future years, causing extensive additional flooding in the basin and, in the event of an uncontrolled natural spill, downstream in the Red River of the North Basin as well. The outlet simulation model described in this report was developed to determine the potential effects of various outlet alternatives on the future lake levels and water quality of Devils Lake.Lake levels of Devils Lake are controlled largely by precipitation on the lake surface, evaporation from the lake surface, and surface inflow. For this study, a monthly water-balance model was developed to compute the change in total volume of Devils Lake, and a regression model was used to estimate monthly water-balance data on the basis of limited recorded data. Estimated coefficients for the regression model indicated fitted precipitation on the lake surface was greater than measured precipitation in most months, fitted evaporation from the lake surface was less than estimated evaporation in most months, and ungaged inflow was about 2 percent of gaged inflow in most months. Dissolved sulfate was considered to be the key water-quality constituent for evaluating the effects of a proposed outlet on downstream water quality. Because large differences in sulfate concentrations existed among the various bays of Devils Lake, monthly water-balance data were used to develop detailed water and sulfate mass-balance models to compute changes in sulfate load for each of six major storage compartments in response to precipitation, evaporation, inflow, and outflow from

  15. Diatom-inferred hydrological changes and Holocene geomorphic transitioning of Africa's largest estuarine system, Lake St Lucia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gomes, M.; Humphries, M. S.; Kirsten, K. L.; Green, A. N.; Finch, J. M.; de Lecea, A. M.

    2017-06-01

    The diverse lagoons and coastal lakes along the east coast of South Africa occupy incised valleys that were flooded during the rise and subsequent stabilisation of relative sea-level during the Holocene. Sedimentary deposits contained within these waterbodies provide an opportunity to investigate complex hydrological and sedimentological processes, and examine sea-level controls governing system geomorphic evolution. In this paper, we combine diatom and sulfur isotope analyses from two sediment cores extracted from the northern sub-basins of Lake St Lucia, a large shallow estuarine lake that is today largely isolated from direct ocean influence behind a Holocene-Pleistocene barrier complex. Analyses allow the reconstruction of hydrological changes associated with the geomorphic development of the system over the mid-to late Holocene. The sedimentary sequences indicate that St Lucia was a shallow, partially enclosed estuary/embayment dominated by strong tidal flows prior to ∼6200 cal. BP. Infilling was initiated when sea-level rise slowed and stabilised around present day levels, resulting in the accumulation of fine-grained sediment behind an emergent proto-barrier. Diatom assemblages, dominated by marine benthic and epiphytic species, reveal a system structured by marine water influx and characterised by marsh and tidal flat habitats until ∼4550 cal. BP. A shift in the biological community at ∼4550 cal. BP is linked to the development of a back-barrier water body that supported a brackish community. Marine planktonics and enrichments in δ34S suggest recurrent, large-scale barrier inundation events during this time, coincident with a mid-Holocene sea-level highstand. Periodic marine incursions associated with episodes of enhanced storminess and overwash remained prevalent until ∼1200 cal. BP, when further barrier construction ultimately isolated the northern basins from the ocean. This study provides the first reconstruction of the palaeohydrological

  16. Lake States Pulpwood Production Hampered by Adverse Weather and Labor Shortage, 1965

    Treesearch

    Arthur G. Horn

    1966-01-01

    Demand for Lake States pulpwood gained strength in 1965, but production failed to rise. Adverse weather during part of the year and a general shortage of woods labor were deterrents to a larger harvest. The total pulpwood cut was 3,636,000 cords in 1965, representing very little change over the level of the 2 previous years. The tempo of pulpwood activities started...

  17. Evaporation from a temperate closed-basin lake and its impact on present, past, and future water level

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiao, Ke; Griffis, Timothy J.; Baker, John M.; Bolstad, Paul V.; Erickson, Matt D.; Lee, Xuhui; Wood, Jeffrey D.; Hu, Cheng; Nieber, John L.

    2018-06-01

    Lakes provide enormous economic, recreational, and aesthetic benefits to citizens. These ecosystem services may be adversely impacted by climate change. In the Twin Cities Metropolitan Area of Minnesota, USA, many lakes have been at historic low levels and water augmentation strategies have been proposed to alleviate the problem. White Bear Lake (WBL) is a notable example. Its water level declined 1.5 m during 2003-2013 for reasons that are not fully understood. This study examined current, past, and future lake evaporation to better understand how climate will impact the water balance of lakes within this region. Evaporation from WBL was measured from July 2014 to February 2017 using two eddy covariance (EC) systems to provide better constraints on the water budget and to investigate the impact of evaporation on lake level. The estimated annual evaporation losses for years 2014 through 2016 were 559 ± 22 mm, 779 ± 81 mm, and 766 ± 11 mm, respectively. The higher evaporation in 2015 and 2016 was caused by the combined effects of larger average daily evaporation and a longer ice-free season. The EC measurements were used to tune the Community Land Model 4 - Lake, Ice, Snow and Sediment Simulator (CLM4-LISSS) to estimate lake evaporation over the period 1979-2016. Retrospective analyses indicate that WBL evaporation increased during this time by about 3.8 mm year-1, which was driven by increased wind speed and lake-surface vapor pressure gradient. Using a business-as-usual greenhouse gas emission scenario (RCP8.5), lake evaporation was modeled forward in time from 2017 to 2100. Annual evaporation is expected to increase by 1.4 mm year-1 over this century, largely driven by lengthening ice-free periods. These changes in ice phenology and evaporation will have important implications for the regional water balance, and water management and water augmentation strategies that are being proposed for these Metropolitan lakes.

  18. Relation Between Selected Water-Quality Variables, Climatic Factors, and Lake Levels in Upper Klamath and Agency Lakes, Oregon, 1990-2006

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Morace, Jennifer L.

    2007-01-01

    Growth and decomposition of dense blooms of Aphanizomenon flos-aquae in Upper Klamath Lake frequently cause extreme water-quality conditions that have led to critical fishery concerns for the region, including the listing of two species of endemic suckers as endangered. The Bureau of Reclamation has asked the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to examine water-quality data collected by the Klamath Tribes for relations with lake level. This analysis evaluates a 17-year dataset (1990-2006) and updates a previous USGS analysis of a 5-year dataset (1990-94). Both univariate hypothesis testing and multivariable analyses evaluated using an information-theoretic approach revealed the same results-no one overarching factor emerged from the data. No single factor could be relegated from consideration either. The lack of statistically significant, strong correlations between water-quality conditions, lake level, and climatic factors does not necessarily show that these factors do not influence water-quality conditions; it is more likely that these conditions work in conjunction with each other to affect water quality. A few different conclusions could be drawn from the larger dataset than from the smaller dataset examined in 1996, but for the most part, the outcome was the same. Using an observational dataset that may not capture all variation in water-quality conditions (samples were collected on a two-week interval) and that has a limited range of conditions for evaluation (confined to the operation of lake) may have confounded the exploration of explanatory factors. In the end, all years experienced some variation in poor water-quality conditions, either in timing of occurrence of the poor conditions or in their duration. The dataset of 17 years simply provided 17 different patterns of lake level, cumulative degree-days, timing of the bloom onset, and poor water-quality conditions, with no overriding causal factor emerging from the variations. Water-quality conditions were

  19. Managing Long-term Risks from Natural Hazards in a Dynamic Volcanic and Institutional Environment: The Spirit Lake Story

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grant, G.; Major, J. J.; Lewis, S.

    2016-12-01

    The 18 May 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens, Washington, spawned a massive (109 m3) debris avalanche, a violent and extensive pyroclastic density current, lahars, pyroclastic flows, and ashfall. It fundamentally transformed the proximal landscape, and created potential secondary hazards that remain legacies of the eruption over 35 years later. The debris avalanche raised the level of Spirit Lake—a picturesque lake at the foot of the volcano—by 60 m and blocked its outlet. Abruptly, the lake went from charming to menacing, capable of releasing a potentially catastrophic outburst flood (108 m3) that could transform into a massive (109 m3) debris flow if rising lake water breached the blockage. To reduce risk of an uncontrolled breach, and under Presidential emergency declaration, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) bored a 2,590-m-long outlet tunnel through bedrock within the U.S. Forest Service (USFS)-administered Mount St. Helens National Volcanic Monument. Drainage through the tunnel maintains a safe lake level below a geologic contact in the blockage where seepage erosion could result in failure. Although the tunnel has performed its mission for over 30 years, episodic deformation has reduced its outlet capacity, necessitating expensive (>$1 million) repairs and closures which temporarily caused precarious lake rises, and prompted re-examination of the strategy to maintain a safe lake level. Here we discuss how federal researchers (USFS and U.S. Geological Survey) interact with Monument and USFS land managers, USACE, the National Academy of Sciences, and the public at large to develop and evaluate, under Congressional mandate, alternative strategies for reducing the risk of catastrophic flooding. Amidst this nexus of institutions, agendas, and perspectives, set against the backdrop of a rapidly evolving landscape subject to a trio of hazards (eruptions, earthquakes, floods), competing interests, costs, and natural risks must be balanced and managed.

  20. Coastal vulnerability assessment of the Northern Gulf of Mexico to sea-level rise and coastal change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pendleton, E.A.; Barras, J.A.; Williams, S.J.; Twichell, D.C.

    2010-01-01

    A coastal vulnerability index (CVI) was used to map the relative vulnerability of the coast to future sea-level rise along the Northern Gulf of Mexico from Galveston, TX, to Panama City, FL. The CVI ranks the following in terms of their physical contribution to sea-level rise-related coastal change: geomorphology, regional coastal slope, rate of relative sea-level rise, historical shoreline change rate, mean tidal range, and mean significant wave height. The rankings for each variable are combined and an index value is calculated for 1-kilometer grid cells along the coast. The CVI highlights those regions where the physical effects of sea-level rise might be the greatest. The CVI assessment presented here builds on an earlier assessment conducted for the Gulf of Mexico. Recent higher resolution shoreline change, land loss, elevation, and subsidence data provide the foundation for a better assessment for the Northern Gulf of Mexico. The areas along the Northern Gulf of Mexico that are likely to be most vulnerable to sea-level rise are parts of the Louisiana Chenier Plain, Teche-Vermillion Basin, and the Mississippi barrier islands, as well as most of the Terrebonne and Barataria Bay region and the Chandeleur Islands. These very high vulnerability areas have the highest rates of relative sea-level rise and the highest rates of shoreline change or land area loss. The information provided by coastal vulnerability assessments can be used in long-term coastal management and policy decision making.

  1. Impact of sea-level rise on earthquake and landslide triggering offshore the Alentejo margin (SW Iberia)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neves, M. C.; Roque, C.; Luttrell, K. M.; Vázquez, J. T.; Alonso, B.

    2016-12-01

    Earthquakes and submarine landslides are recurrent and widespread manifestations of fault activity offshore SW Iberia. The present work tests the effects of sea-level rise on offshore fault systems using Coulomb stress change calculations across the Alentejo margin. Large-scale faults capable of generating large earthquakes and tsunamis in the region, especially NE-SW trending thrusts and WNW-ESE trending dextral strike-slip faults imaged at basement depths, are either blocked or unaffected by flexural effects related to sea-level changes. Large-magnitude earthquakes occurring along these structures may, therefore, be less frequent during periods of sea-level rise. In contrast, sea-level rise promotes shallow fault ruptures within the sedimentary sequence along the continental slope and upper rise within distances of <100 km from the coast. The results suggest that the occurrence of continental slope failures may either increase (if triggered by shallow fault ruptures) or decrease (if triggered by deep fault ruptures) as a result of sea-level rise. Moreover, observations of slope failures affecting the area of the Sines contourite drift highlight the role of sediment properties as preconditioning factors in this region.

  2. Can salt marshes survive sea level rise ?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tambroni, N.; Seminara, G.

    2008-12-01

    Stability of salt marshes is a very delicate issue depending on the subtle interplay among hydrodynamics, morphodynamics and ecology. In fact, the elevation of the marsh platform depends essentially on three effects: i) the production of soil associated with sediments resuspended by tidal currents and wind waves in the adjacent tidal flats, advected to the marsh and settling therein; ii) production of organic sediments by the salt marsh vegetation; iii) soil 'loss' driven by sea level rise and subsidence. In order to gain insight into the mechanics of the process, we consider a schematic configuration consisting of a salt marsh located at the landward end of a tidal channel connected at the upstream end with a tidal sea, under different scenarios of sea level rise. We extend the simple 1D model for the morphodynamic evolution of a tidal channel formulated by Lanzoni and Seminara (2002, Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans, 107, C1) allowing for sediment resuspension in the channel and vegetation growth in the marsh using the depth dependent model of biomass productivity of Spartina proposed by Morris et al. (2002, Ecology, 83, pp. 2869 - 2877). We first focus on the case of a tide dominated salt marsh neglecting wind driven sediment resuspension in the shoal. Results show that the production of biomass plays a crucial role on salt marsh stability and, provided productivity is high enough, it may turn out to be sufficient to counteract the effects of sea level rise even in the absence of significant supply of mineral sediments. The additional effect of wind resuspension is then introduced. Note that the wind action is twofold: on one hand, it generates wind waves the amplitude of which is strongly dependent on shoal depth and wind fetch; on the other hand, it generates currents driven by the surface setup induced by the shear stress acting on the free surface. Here, each contribution is analysed separately. Results show that the values of bottom stress induced by

  3. Rapid thinning and collapse of lake calving Yakutat Glacier, Southeast Alaska

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trussel, Barbara Lea

    Glaciers around the globe are experiencing a notable retreat and thinning, triggered by atmospheric warming. Tidewater glaciers in particular have received much attention, because they have been recognized to contribute substantially to global sea level rise. However, lake calving glaciers in Alaska show increasingly high thinning and retreat rates and are therefore contributors to sea level rise. The number of such lake calving systems is increasing worldwide as land-terminating glaciers retreat into overdeepened basins and form proglacial lakes. Yakutat Glacier in Southeast Alaska is a low elevation lake calving glacier with an accumulation to total area ratio of 0.03. It experienced rapid thinning of 4.43 +/- 0.06 m w.e. yr-1 between 2000-2010 and terminus retreat of over 15 km since the beginning of the 20th century. Simultaneously, adjacent Yakutat Icefield land-terminating glaciers thinned at lower but still substantial rates (3.54 +/- 0.06 m w.e. yr -1 for the same time period), indicating lake calving dynamics help drive increased mass loss. Yakutat Glacier sustained a ˜3 km long floating tongue for over a decade, which started to disintegrate into large tabular icebergs in 2010. Such floating tongues are rarely seen on temperate tidewater glaciers. The floating ice was weakened by surface ablation, which then allowed rifts to form and intersect. Ice velocity from GPS measurements showed that the ice on the floating tongue was moving substantially faster than grounded ice, which was attributed to rift opening between the floating and grounded ice. Temporal variations of rift opening were determined from time-lapse imagery, and correlated well with variations in ice speeds. Larger rift opening rates occurred during and after precipitation or increased melt episodes. Both of these events increased subglacial discharge and could potentially increase the subaqueous currents towards the open lake and thus increase drag on the ice underside. Simultaneously

  4. Sea-level rise modeling handbook: Resource guide for coastal land managers, engineers, and scientists

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Doyle, Thomas W.; Chivoiu, Bogdan; Enwright, Nicholas M.

    2015-08-24

    Global sea level is rising and may accelerate with continued fossil fuel consumption from industrial and population growth. In 2012, the U.S. Geological Survey conducted more than 30 training and feedback sessions with Federal, State, and nongovernmental organization (NGO) coastal managers and planners across the northern Gulf of Mexico coast to evaluate user needs, potential benefits, current scientific understanding, and utilization of resource aids and modeling tools focused on sea-level rise. In response to the findings from the sessions, this sea-level rise modeling handbook has been designed as a guide to the science and simulation models for understanding the dynamics and impacts of sea-level rise on coastal ecosystems. The review herein of decision-support tools and predictive models was compiled from the training sessions, from online research, and from publications. The purpose of this guide is to describe and categorize the suite of data, methods, and models and their design, structure, and application for hindcasting and forecasting the potential impacts of sea-level rise in coastal ecosystems. The data and models cover a broad spectrum of disciplines involving different designs and scales of spatial and temporal complexity for predicting environmental change and ecosystem response. These data and models have not heretofore been synthesized, nor have appraisals been made of their utility or limitations. Some models are demonstration tools for non-experts, whereas others require more expert capacity to apply for any given park, refuge, or regional application. A simplified tabular context has been developed to list and contrast a host of decision-support tools and models from the ecological, geological, and hydrological perspectives. Criteria were established to distinguish the source, scale, and quality of information input and geographic datasets; physical and biological constraints and relations; datum characteristics of water and land components

  5. Effects of sea-level rise on salt water intrusion near a coastal well field in southeastern Florida

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Langevin, Christian D.; Zygnerski, Michael

    2013-01-01

    A variable-density groundwater flow and dispersive solute transport model was developed for the shallow coastal aquifer system near a municipal supply well field in southeastern Florida. The model was calibrated for a 105-year period (1900 to 2005). An analysis with the model suggests that well-field withdrawals were the dominant cause of salt water intrusion near the well field, and that historical sea-level rise, which is similar to lower-bound projections of future sea-level rise, exacerbated the extent of salt water intrusion. Average 2005 hydrologic conditions were used for 100-year sensitivity simulations aimed at quantifying the effect of projected rises in sea level on fresh coastal groundwater resources near the well field. Use of average 2005 hydrologic conditions and a constant sea level result in total dissolved solids (TDS) concentration of the well field exceeding drinking water standards after 70 years. When sea-level rise is included in the simulations, drinking water standards are exceeded 10 to 21 years earlier, depending on the specified rate of sea-level rise.

  6. Nuisance Flooding and Relative Sea-Level Rise: the Importance of Present-Day Land Motion.

    PubMed

    Karegar, Makan A; Dixon, Timothy H; Malservisi, Rocco; Kusche, Jürgen; Engelhart, Simon E

    2017-09-11

    Sea-level rise is beginning to cause increased inundation of many low-lying coastal areas. While most of Earth's coastal areas are at risk, areas that will be affected first are characterized by several additional factors. These include regional oceanographic and meteorological effects and/or land subsidence that cause relative sea level to rise faster than the global average. For catastrophic coastal flooding, when wind-driven storm surge inundates large areas, the relative contribution of sea-level rise to the frequency of these events is difficult to evaluate. For small scale "nuisance flooding," often associated with high tides, recent increases in frequency are more clearly linked to sea-level rise and global warming. While both types of flooding are likely to increase in the future, only nuisance flooding is an early indicator of areas that will eventually experience increased catastrophic flooding and land loss. Here we assess the frequency and location of nuisance flooding along the eastern seaboard of North America. We show that vertical land motion induced by recent anthropogenic activity and glacial isostatic adjustment are contributing factors for increased nuisance flooding. Our results have implications for flood susceptibility, forecasting and mitigation, including management of groundwater extraction from coastal aquifers.

  7. Assessment of Climate Change and Agricultural Land Use Change on Streamflow Input to Devils Lake: A Case Study of the Mauvais Coulee Sub-basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jackson, C.; Todhunter, P. E.

    2017-12-01

    Since 1993, Devils Lake in North Dakota has experienced a prolonged rise in lake level and flooding of the lake's neighboring areas within the closed basin system. Understanding the relative contribution of climate change and land use change is needed to explain the historical rise in lake level, and to evaluate the potential impact of anthropogenic climate change upon future lake conditions and management. Four methodologies were considered to examine the relative contribution of climatic and human landscape drivers to streamflow variations: statistical, ecohydrologic, physically-based modeling, and elasticity of streamflow; for this study, ecohydrologic and climate elasticity were selected. Agricultural statistics determined that Towner and Ramsey counties underwent a crop conversion from small grains to row crops within the last 30 years. Through the Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), a 10 meter resolution DEM confirmed the presence of innumerable wetland depressions within the non-contributing area of the Mauvais Coulee Sub-basin. Although the ecohydrologic and climate elasticity methodologies are the most commonly used in literature, they make assumptions that are not applicable to basin conditions. A modified and more informed approach to the use of these methods was applied to account for these unique sub-basin characteristics. Ultimately, hydroclimatic variability was determined as the largest driver to streamflow variation in Mauvais Coulee and Devils Lake.

  8. Response in the trophic state of stratified lakes to changes in hydrology and water level: potential effects of climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Robertson, Dale M.; Rose, William J.

    2011-01-01

    To determine how climate-induced changes in hydrology and water level may affect the trophic state (productivity) of stratified lakes, two relatively pristine dimictic temperate lakes in Wisconsin, USA, were examined. Both are closed-basin lakes that experience changes in water level and degradation in water quality during periods of high water. One, a seepage lake with no inlets or outlets, has a small drainage basin and hydrology dominated by precipitation and groundwater exchange causing small changes in water and phosphorus (P) loading, which resulted in small changes in water level, P concentrations, and productivity. The other, a terminal lake with inlets but no outlets, has a large drainage basin and hydrology dominated by runoff causing large changes in water and P loading, which resulted in large changes in water level, P concentrations, and productivity. Eutrophication models accurately predicted the effects of changes in hydrology, P loading, and water level on their trophic state. If climate changes, larger changes in hydrology and water levels than previously observed could occur. If this causes increased water and P loading, stratified (dimictic and monomictic) lakes are expected to experience higher water levels and become more eutrophic, especially those with large developed drainage basins.

  9. Fate of Water Pumped from Underground and Contributions to Sea Level Rise

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wada, Yoshihide; Lo, Min-Hui; Yeh, Pat J.-F.; Reager, John T.; Famiglietti, James S.; Wu, Ren-Jie; Tseng, Yu-Heng

    2016-01-01

    The contributions from terrestrial water sources to sea-level rise, other than ice caps and glaciers, are highly uncertain and heavily debated1-5. Recent assessments indicate that groundwater depletion (GWD) may become the most important positive terrestrial contribution6-10 over the next 50 years, probably equal in magnitude to the current contributions from glaciers and ice caps6. However, the existing estimates assume that nearly 100% of groundwater extracted eventually ends up in the oceans. Owing to limited knowledge of the pathways and mechanisms governing the ultimate fate of pumped groundwater, the relative fraction of global GWD that contributes to sea-level rise remains unknown. Here, using a coupled climate-hydrological model11,12 simulation, we show that only 80% of GWDends up in the ocean. An increase in runo to the ocean accounts for roughly two-thirds, whereas the remainder results from the enhanced net flux of precipitation minus evaporation over the ocean, due to increased atmospheric vapour transport from the land to the ocean. The contribution of GWD to global sea-level rise amounted to 0.02 (+/- 0.004)mm yr(sup-1) in 1900 and increased to 0.27 (+/- 0.04)mm yr(sup-1) in 2000. This indicates that existing studies have substantially overestimated the contribution of GWD to global sea-level rise by a cumulative amount of at least 10 mm during the twentieth century and early twenty-first century. With other terrestrial water contributions included, we estimate the net terrestrial water contribution during the period 1993-2010 to be +0.12 +/-0.04)mm yr(sup-1), suggesting that the net terrestrialwater contribution reported in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report report is probably overestimated by a factor of three.

  10. Measuring Sea Level Rise-Induced Shoreline Changes and Inundation in Real Time

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shilling, F.; Waetjen, D.; Grijalva, E.

    2016-12-01

    We describe a method to monitor shoreline inundation and changes in response to sea level rise (SLR) using a network of time-lapse cameras. We found for coastal tidal marshes that this method was sensitive to vertical changes in sea level of <1 cm, roughly equivalent to 1-2 years of sea level rise under the A1 scenario. SLR of >20 cm has occurred in the San Francisco Bay and other US coastal areas and is likely to rise by another 30-45 cm by mid-century, which will flood and erode many coastal ecosystems, highways, and urban areas. This rapid degree of rise means that it is imperative to co-plan for natural and built systems. Many public facilities are adjacent to shoreline ecosystems, which both protect infrastructure from wave and tide energy and are home to regulated species and habitats. Accurate and timely information about the actual extent of SLR impacts to shorelines will be critical during built-system adaptation. Currently, satellite-sourced imagery cannot provide the spatial or temporal resolution necessary to investigate fine-scale shoreline changes, leaving a gap between predictive models and knowing how, where and when these changes are occurring. The method described is feasible for near-term (1 to 10 years) to long-term application and can be used for measuring fine-resolution shoreline changes (<1 m2) in response to SLR and associated wave action inundation of marshes and infrastructure. We demonstrate the method with networks of cameras in 2 coastal states (CA and GA), using web-informatics and services to organize photographs that could be combined with related external data (e.g., gauged water levels) to create an information mashup. This information could be used to validate models predicting shoreline inundation and loss, inform SLR-adaptation planning, and to visualize SLR impacts to the public.

  11. Spatial and temporal genetic diversity of lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis (Mitchill)) from Lake Huron and Lake Erie

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stott, Wendylee; Ebener, Mark P.; Mohr, Lloyd; Hartman, Travis; Johnson, Jim; Roseman, Edward F.

    2013-01-01

    Lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis (Mitchill)) are important commercially, culturally, and ecologically in the Laurentian Great Lakes. Stocks of lake whitefish in the Great Lakes have recovered from low levels of abundance in the 1960s. Reductions in abundance, loss of habitat and environmental degradation can be accompanied by losses of genetic diversity and overall fitness that may persist even as populations recover demographically. Therefore, it is important to be able to identify stocks that have reduced levels of genetic diversity. In this study, we investigated patterns of genetic diversity at microsatellite DNA loci in lake whitefish collected between 1927 and 1929 (historical period) and between 1997 and 2005 (contemporary period) from Lake Huron and Lake Erie. Genetic analysis of lake whitefish from Lakes Huron and Erie shows that the amount of population structuring varies from lake to lake. Greater genetic divergences among collections from Lake Huron may be the result of sampling scale, migration patterns and demographic processes. Fluctuations in abundance of lake whitefish populations may have resulted in periods of increased genetic drift that have resulted in changes in allele frequencies over time, but periodic genetic drift was not severe enough to result in a significant loss of genetic diversity. Migration among stocks may have decreased levels of genetic differentiation while not completely obscuring stock boundaries. Recent changes in spatial boundaries to stocks, the number of stocks and life history characteristics of stocks further demonstrate the potential of coregonids for a swift and varied response to environmental change and emphasise the importance of incorporating both spatial and temporal considerations into management plans to ensure that diversity is preserved.

  12. GGOS Focus Area 3: Understanding and Forecasting Sea-Level Rise and Variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schöne, Tilo; Shum, Ck; Tamisiea, Mark; Woodworth, Philip

    2017-04-01

    Sea level and its change have been measured for more than a century. Especially for coastal nations, deltaic regions, and coastal-oriented industries, observations of tides, tidal extremes, storm surges, and sea level rise at the interannual or longer scales have substantial impacts on coastal vulnerability towards resilience and sustainability of world's coastal regions. To date, the observed global sea level rise is largely associated with climate related changes. To find the patterns and fingerprints of those changes, and to e.g., separate the land motion from sea level signals, different monitoring techniques have been developed. Some of them are local, e.g., tide gauges, while others are global, e.g., satellite altimetry. It is well known that sea level change and land vertical motion varies regionally, and both signals need to be measured in order to quantify relative sea level at the local scale. The Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS) and its services contribute in many ways to the monitoring of the sea level. These includes tide gauge observations, estimation of gravity changes, satellite altimetry, InSAR/Lidar, GNSS-control of tide gauges, providing ground truth sites for satellite altimetry, and importantly the maintenance of the International Reference Frame. Focus Area 3 (Understanding and Forecasting Sea-Level Rise and Variability) of GGOS establishes a platform and a forum for researchers and authorities dealing with estimating global and local sea level changes in a 10- to 30-year time span, and its project to the next century or beyond. It presents an excellent opportunity to emphasize the global, through to regional and local, importance of GGOS to a wide range of sea-level related science and practical applications. Focus Area 3 works trough demonstration projects to highlight the value of geodetic techniques to sea level science and applications. Contributions under a call for participation (http://www.ggos.org/Applications/theme3_SL

  13. An examination of land use impacts of flooding induced by sea level rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Song, Jie; Fu, Xinyu; Gu, Yue; Deng, Yujun; Peng, Zhong-Ren

    2017-03-01

    Coastal regions become unprecedentedly vulnerable to coastal hazards that are associated with sea level rise. The purpose of this paper is therefore to simulate prospective urban exposure to changing sea levels. This article first applied the cellular-automaton-based SLEUTH model (Project Gigalopolis, 2016) to calibrate historical urban dynamics in Bay County, Florida (USA) - a region that is greatly threatened by rising sea levels. This paper estimated five urban growth parameters by multiple-calibration procedures that used different Monte Carlo iterations to account for modeling uncertainties. It then employed the calibrated model to predict three scenarios of urban growth up to 2080 - historical trend, urban sprawl, and compact development. We also assessed land use impacts of four policies: no regulations; flood mitigation plans based on the whole study region and on those areas that are prone to experience growth; and the protection of conservational lands. This study lastly overlaid projected urban areas in 2030 and 2080 with 500-year flooding maps that were developed under 0, 0.2, and 0.9 m sea level rise. The calibration results that a substantial number of built-up regions extend from established coastal settlements. The predictions suggest that total flooded area of new urbanized regions in 2080 would be more than 25 times that under the flood mitigation policy, if the urbanization progresses with few policy interventions. The joint model generates new knowledge in the domain between land use modeling and sea level rise. It contributes to coastal spatial planning by helping develop hazard mitigation schemes and can be employed in other international communities that face combined pressure of urban growth and climate change.

  14. A Framework For Analysis Of Coastal Infrastructure Vunerabilty To Global Sea Level Rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Obrien, P. S.; White, K. D.; Veatch, W.; Marzion, R.; Moritz, H.; Moritz, H. R.

    2017-12-01

    Recorded impacts of global sea rise on coastal water levels have been documented over the past 100 to 150 years. In the recent 40 years the assumption of hydrologic stationarity has been recognized as invalid. New coastal infrastructure designs must recognize the paradigm shift from hydrologic stationarity to non-stationarity in coastal hydrology. A framework for the evaluation of existing coastal infrastructure is proposed to effectively assess design vulnerability. Two data sets developed from existing structures are chosen to test a proposed framework for vunerabilty to global sea level rise, with the proposed name Climate Preparedness and Resilience Register (CPRR). The CPRR framework consists of four major elements; Datum Adjustment, Coastal Water Levels, Scenario Projections and Performance Thresholds.

  15. Infrastructure effects on estuarine wetlands increase their vulnerability to sea level rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rodriguez, Jose; Saco, Patricia; Sandi, Steven; Saintilan, Neil; Riccardi, Gerardo

    2017-04-01

    At the regional and global scales, coastal management and planning for future sea level rise scenarios is typically supported by modelling tools that predict the expected inundation extent. These tools rely on a number of simplifying assumptions that, in some cases, may result in important miscalculation of the inundation effects. One of such cases is estuarine wetlands, where vegetation strongly depends on both the magnitude and the timing of inundation. Many coastal wetlands display flow restrictions due to infrastructure or drainage works, which produce alterations to the inundation patterns that can not be captured by conventional models. In this contribution we explore the effects of flow restrictions on inundation patterns under sea level rise conditions in estuarine wetlands. We use a spatially-distributed dynamic wetland ecogeomorphological model that not only incorporates the effects of flow restrictions due to culverts, bridges and weirs as well as vegetation, but also considers that vegetation changes as a consequence of increasing inundation. We also consider the ability of vegetation to capture sediment and produce accretion. We apply our model to an estuarine wetland in Australia and show that our model predicts a much faster wetland loss due to sea level rise than conventional approaches.

  16. Resolving the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise: a hierarchical modelling framework†

    PubMed Central

    Zammit-Mangion, Andrew; Rougier, Jonathan; Bamber, Jonathan; Schön, Nana

    2014-01-01

    Determining the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise from observational data is a complex problem. The number of physical processes involved (such as ice dynamics and surface climate) exceeds the number of observables, some of which have very poor spatial definition. This has led, in general, to solutions that utilise strong prior assumptions or physically based deterministic models to simplify the problem. Here, we present a new approach for estimating the Antarctic contribution, which only incorporates descriptive aspects of the physically based models in the analysis and in a statistical manner. By combining physical insights with modern spatial statistical modelling techniques, we are able to provide probability distributions on all processes deemed to play a role in both the observed data and the contribution to sea-level rise. Specifically, we use stochastic partial differential equations and their relation to geostatistical fields to capture our physical understanding and employ a Gaussian Markov random field approach for efficient computation. The method, an instantiation of Bayesian hierarchical modelling, naturally incorporates uncertainty in order to reveal credible intervals on all estimated quantities. The estimated sea-level rise contribution using this approach corroborates those found using a statistically independent method. © 2013 The Authors. Environmetrics Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:25505370

  17. Resolving the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise: a hierarchical modelling framework.

    PubMed

    Zammit-Mangion, Andrew; Rougier, Jonathan; Bamber, Jonathan; Schön, Nana

    2014-06-01

    Determining the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise from observational data is a complex problem. The number of physical processes involved (such as ice dynamics and surface climate) exceeds the number of observables, some of which have very poor spatial definition. This has led, in general, to solutions that utilise strong prior assumptions or physically based deterministic models to simplify the problem. Here, we present a new approach for estimating the Antarctic contribution, which only incorporates descriptive aspects of the physically based models in the analysis and in a statistical manner. By combining physical insights with modern spatial statistical modelling techniques, we are able to provide probability distributions on all processes deemed to play a role in both the observed data and the contribution to sea-level rise. Specifically, we use stochastic partial differential equations and their relation to geostatistical fields to capture our physical understanding and employ a Gaussian Markov random field approach for efficient computation. The method, an instantiation of Bayesian hierarchical modelling, naturally incorporates uncertainty in order to reveal credible intervals on all estimated quantities. The estimated sea-level rise contribution using this approach corroborates those found using a statistically independent method. © 2013 The Authors. Environmetrics Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  18. Patterns and potential drivers of dramatic changes in Tibetan lakes, 1972-2010.

    PubMed

    Li, Yingkui; Liao, Jingjuan; Guo, Huadong; Liu, Zewen; Shen, Guozhuang

    2014-01-01

    Most glaciers in the Himalayas and the Tibetan Plateau are retreating, and glacier melt has been emphasized as the dominant driver for recent lake expansions on the Tibetan Plateau. By investigating detailed changes in lake extents and levels across the Tibetan Plateau from Landsat/ICESat data, we found a pattern of dramatic lake changes from 1970 to 2010 (especially after 2000) with a southwest-northeast transition from shrinking, to stable, to rapidly expanding. This pattern is in distinct contrast to the spatial characteristics of glacier retreat, suggesting limited influence of glacier melt on lake dynamics. The plateau-wide pattern of lake change is related to precipitation variation and consistent with the pattern of permafrost degradation induced by rising temperature. More than 79% of lakes we observed on the central-northern plateau (with continuous permafrost) are rapidly expanding, even without glacial contributions, while lakes fed by retreating glaciers in southern regions (with isolated permafrost) are relatively stable or shrinking. Our study shows the limited role of glacier melt and highlights the potentially important contribution of permafrost degradation in predicting future water availability in this region, where understanding these processes is of critical importance to drinking water, agriculture, and hydropower supply of densely populated areas in South and East Asia.

  19. Interactions between sea-level rise and wave exposure on reef island dynamics in the Solomon Islands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Albert, Simon; Leon, Javier X.; Grinham, Alistair R.; Church, John A.; Gibbes, Badin R.; Woodroffe, Colin D.

    2016-05-01

    Low-lying reef islands in the Solomon Islands provide a valuable window into the future impacts of global sea-level rise. Sea-level rise has been predicted to cause widespread erosion and inundation of low-lying atolls in the central Pacific. However, the limited research on reef islands in the western Pacific indicates the majority of shoreline changes and inundation to date result from extreme events, seawalls and inappropriate development rather than sea-level rise alone. Here, we present the first analysis of coastal dynamics from a sea-level rise hotspot in the Solomon Islands. Using time series aerial and satellite imagery from 1947 to 2014 of 33 islands, along with historical insight from local knowledge, we have identified five vegetated reef islands that have vanished over this time period and a further six islands experiencing severe shoreline recession. Shoreline recession at two sites has destroyed villages that have existed since at least 1935, leading to community relocations. Rates of shoreline recession are substantially higher in areas exposed to high wave energy, indicating a synergistic interaction between sea-level rise and waves. Understanding these local factors that increase the susceptibility of islands to coastal erosion is critical to guide adaptation responses for these remote Pacific communities.

  20. Diet overlap of top-level predators in recent sympatry: bull trout and nonnative lake trout

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Guy, Christopher S.; McMahon, Thomas E.; Fredenberg, Wade A.; Smith, Clinton J.; Garfield, David W.; Cox, Benjamin S.

    2011-01-01

    The establishment of nonnative lake trout Salvelinus namaycush in lakes containing lacustrine–adfluvial bull trout Salvelinus confluentus often results in a precipitous decline in bull trout abundance. The exact mechanism for the decline is unknown, but one hypothesis is related to competitive exclusion for prey resources. We had the rare opportunity to study the diets of bull trout and nonnative lake trout in Swan Lake, Montana during a concomitant study. The presence of nonnative lake trout in Swan Lake is relatively recent and the population is experiencing rapid population growth. The objective of this study was to evaluate the diets of bull trout and lake trout during the early expansion of this nonnative predator. Diets were sampled from 142 bull trout and 327 lake trout during the autumn in 2007 and 2008. Bull trout and lake trout had similar diets, both consumed Mysis diluviana as the primary invertebrate, especially at juvenile stages, and kokanee Oncorhynchus nerka as the primary vertebrate prey, as adults. A diet shift from primarily M. diluviana to fish occurred at similar lengths for both species, 506 mm (476–545 mm, 95% CI) for bull trout and 495 mm (470–518 mm CI) for lake trout. These data indicate high diet overlap between these two morphologically similar top-level predators. Competitive exclusion may be a possible mechanism if the observed overlap remains similar at varying prey densities and availability.

  1. Anticipating Future Sea Level Rise and Coastal Storms in New York City (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Horton, R. M.; Gornitz, V.; Bader, D.; Little, C. M.; Oppenheimer, M.; Patrick, L.; Orton, P. M.; Rosenzweig, C.; Solecki, W.

    2013-12-01

    Hurricane Sandy caused 43 fatalities in New York City and 19 billion in damages. Mayor Michael Bloomberg responded by convening the second New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC2), to provide up-to-date climate information for the City's Special Initiative for Rebuilding and Resiliency (SIRR). The Mayor's proposed 20 billion plan aims to strengthen the City's resilience to coastal inundation. Accordingly, the NPCC2 scientific and technical support team generated a suite of temperature, precipitation, and sea level rise and extreme event projections through the 2050s. The NPCC2 sea level rise projections include contributions from ocean thermal expansion, dynamic changes in sea surface height, mass changes in glaciers, ice caps, and ice sheets, and land water storage. Local sea level changes induced by changes in ice mass include isostatic, gravitational, and rotational effects. Results are derived from CMIP5 model-based outputs, expert judgment, and literature surveys. Sea level at the Battery, lower Manhattan, is projected to rise by 7-31 in (17.8-78.7cm) by the 2050s relative to 2000-2004 (10 to 90 percentile). As a result, flood heights above NAVD88 for the 100-year storm (stillwater plus waves) would rise from 15.0 ft (0.71 m) in the 2000s to 15.6-17.6 ft (4.8-5.4 m) by the 2050s (10-90 percentile). The annual chance of today's 100-year flood would increase from 1 to 1.4-5.0 percent by the 2050s.

  2. Global mean sea-level rise in a world agreed upon in Paris

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bittermann, Klaus; Rahmstorf, Stefan; Kopp, Robert E.; Kemp, Andrew C.

    2017-12-01

    Although the 2015 Paris Agreement seeks to hold global average temperature to ‘well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels’, projections of global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise commonly focus on scenarios in which there is a high probability that warming exceeds 1.5 °C. Using a semi-empirical model, we project GMSL changes between now and 2150 CE under a suite of temperature scenarios that satisfy the Paris Agreement temperature targets. The projected magnitude and rate of GMSL rise varies among these low emissions scenarios. Stabilizing temperature at 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C above preindustrial reduces GMSL in 2150 CE by 17 cm (90% credible interval: 14-21 cm) and reduces peak rates of rise by 1.9 mm yr-1 (90% credible interval: 1.4-2.6 mm yr-1). Delaying the year of peak temperature has little long-term influence on GMSL, but does reduce the maximum rate of rise. Stabilizing at 2 °C in 2080 CE rather than 2030 CE reduces the peak rate by 2.7 mm yr-1 (90% credible interval: 2.0-4.0 mm yr-1).

  3. Responding to Sea Level Rise: Does Short-Term Risk Reduction Inhibit Successful Long-Term Adaptation?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keeler, A. G.; McNamara, D. E.; Irish, J. L.

    2018-04-01

    Most existing coastal climate-adaptation planning processes, and the research supporting them, tightly focus on how to use land use planning, policy tools, and infrastructure spending to reduce risks from rising seas and changing storm conditions. While central to community response to sea level rise, we argue that the exclusive nature of this focus biases against and delays decisions to take more discontinuous, yet proactive, actions to adapt—for example, relocation and aggressive individual protection investments. Public policies should anticipate real estate market responses to risk reduction to avoid large costs—social and financial—when and if sea level rise and other climate-related factors elevate the risks to such high levels that discontinuous responses become the least bad alternative.

  4. Effect of sea-level rise on salt water intrusion near a coastal well field in southeastern Florida.

    PubMed

    Langevin, Christian D; Zygnerski, Michael

    2013-01-01

    A variable-density groundwater flow and dispersive solute transport model was developed for the shallow coastal aquifer system near a municipal supply well field in southeastern Florida. The model was calibrated for a 105-year period (1900 to 2005). An analysis with the model suggests that well-field withdrawals were the dominant cause of salt water intrusion near the well field, and that historical sea-level rise, which is similar to lower-bound projections of future sea-level rise, exacerbated the extent of salt water intrusion. Average 2005 hydrologic conditions were used for 100-year sensitivity simulations aimed at quantifying the effect of projected rises in sea level on fresh coastal groundwater resources near the well field. Use of average 2005 hydrologic conditions and a constant sea level result in total dissolved solids (TDS) concentration of the well field exceeding drinking water standards after 70 years. When sea-level rise is included in the simulations, drinking water standards are exceeded 10 to 21 years earlier, depending on the specified rate of sea-level rise. Published 2012. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  5. Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sweet, William V.; Kopp, Robert E.; Weaver, Christopher P.; Obeysekera, Jayantha; Horton, Radley M.; Thieler, E. Robert; Zervas, Chris

    2017-01-01

    The Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flood Hazard Scenarios and Tools Interagency Task Force, jointly convened by the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and the National Ocean Council (NOC), began its work in August 2015. The Task Force has focused its efforts on three primary tasks: 1) updating scenarios of global mean sea level (GMSL) rise, 2) integrating the global scenarios with regional factors contributing to sea level change for the entire U.S. coastline, and 3) incorporating these regionally appropriate scenarios within coastal risk management tools and capabilities deployed by individual agencies in support of the needs of specific stakeholder groups and user communities. This technical report focuses on the first two of these tasks and reports on the production of gridded relative sea level (RSL, which includes both ocean-level change and vertical land motion) projections for the United States associated with an updated set of GMSL scenarios. In addition to supporting the longer-term Task Force effort, this new product will be an important input into the USGCRP Sustained Assessment process and upcoming Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4) due in 2018. This report also serves as a key technical input into the in-progress USGCRP Climate Science Special Report (CSSR).

  6. An integrated investigation of lake storage and water level changes in the Paiku Co basin, central Himalayas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lei, Yanbin; Yao, Tandong; Yang, Kun; Bird, Broxton W.; Tian, Lide; Zhang, Xiaowen; Wang, Weicai; Xiang, Yang; Dai, Yufeng; Lazhu; Zhou, Jing; Wang, Lei

    2018-07-01

    Since the late 1990s, lakes in the southern Tibetan Plateau (TP) have shrunk considerably, which contrasts with the rapid expansion of lakes in the interior TP. Although these spatial trends have been well documented, the underlying hydroclimatic mechanisms are not well understood. Since 2013, we have carried out comprehensive water budget observations at Paiku Co, an alpine lake in the central Himalayas. In this study, we investigate water storage and lake level changes on seasonal to decadal time scales based on extensive in-situ measurements and satellite observations. Bathymetric surveys show that Paiku Co has a mean and maximum water depth of 41.1 m and 72.8 m, respectively, and its water storage was estimated to be 109.3 × 108 m3 in June 2016. On seasonal scale between 2013 and 2017, Paiku Co's lake level decreased slowly between January and May, increased considerably between June and September, and then decreased rapidly between October and January. On decadal time scale, Paiku Co's lake level decreased by 3.7 ± 0.3 m and water storage reduced by (10.2 ± 0.8) × 108 m3 between 1972 and 2015, accounting for 8.5% of the total water storage in 1972. This change is consistent with a trend towards drier conditions in the Himalaya region during the recent decades. In contrast, glacial lakes within Paiku Co's basin expanded rapidly, indicating that, unlike Paiku Co, glacial meltwater was sufficient to compensate the effect of the reduced precipitation.

  7. Final project memorandum: sea-level rise modeling handbook: resource guide for resource managers, engineers, and scientists

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Doyle, Thomas W.

    2015-01-01

    Coastal wetlands of the Southeastern United States are undergoing retreat and migration from increasing tidal inundation and saltwater intrusion attributed to climate variability and sea-level rise. Much of the literature describing potential sea-level rise projections and modeling predictions are found in peer-reviewed academic journals or government technical reports largely suited to reading by other Ph.D. scientists who are more familiar or engaged in the climate change debate. Various sea-level rise and coastal wetland models have been developed and applied of different designs and scales of spatial and temporal complexity for predicting habitat and environmental change that have not heretofore been synthesized to aid natural resource managers of their utility and limitations. Training sessions were conducted with Federal land managers with U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, National Park Service, and NOAA National Estuarine Research Reserves as well as state partners and nongovernmental organizations across the northern Gulf Coast from Florida to Texas to educate and to evaluate user needs and understanding of concepts, data, and modeling tools for projecting sea-level rise and its impact on coastal habitats and wildlife. As a result, this handbook was constructed from these training and feedback sessions with coastal managers and biologists of published decision-support tools and simulation models for sea-level rise and climate change assessments. A simplified tabular context was developed listing the various kinds of decision-support tools and ecological models along with criteria to distinguish the source, scale, and quality of information input and geographic data sets, physical and biological constraints and relationships, datum characteristics of water and land elevation components, utility options for setting sea-level rise and climate change scenarios, and ease or difficulty of storing, displaying, or interpreting model output. The handbook is designed

  8. Observation-Driven Estimation of the Spatial Variability of 20th Century Sea Level Rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamlington, B. D.; Burgos, A.; Thompson, P. R.; Landerer, F. W.; Piecuch, C. G.; Adhikari, S.; Caron, L.; Reager, J. T.; Ivins, E. R.

    2018-03-01

    Over the past two decades, sea level measurements made by satellites have given clear indications of both global and regional sea level rise. Numerous studies have sought to leverage the modern satellite record and available historic sea level data provided by tide gauges to estimate past sea level rise, leading to several estimates for the 20th century trend in global mean sea level in the range between 1 and 2 mm/yr. On regional scales, few attempts have been made to estimate trends over the same time period. This is due largely to the inhomogeneity and quality of the tide gauge network through the 20th century, which render commonly used reconstruction techniques inadequate. Here, a new approach is adopted, integrating data from a select set of tide gauges with prior estimates of spatial structure based on historical sea level forcing information from the major contributing processes over the past century. The resulting map of 20th century regional sea level rise is optimized to agree with the tide gauge-measured trends, and provides an indication of the likely contributions of different sources to regional patterns. Of equal importance, this study demonstrates the sensitivities of this regional trend map to current knowledge and uncertainty of the contributing processes.

  9. Aquatic balance in Vegoritis Lake, West Macedonia, Greece, relating to lignite mining works in the area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dimitrakopoulos, D.; Grigorakou, E.; Koumantakis, J.

    2003-04-01

    Vegoritis Lake, which is located at Vegoritis closed Basin in West Macedonia, Greece, is the biggest lake in Greece. In 1994 the area of the lake was 35 Km2 with maximum depth 42 m at the northwestern part of the lake. It is the final receiving body of the surface runoff of the hydrological basin. Moreover, it is the surficial appearance of an enormous and not well-known karstic aquifer. Being a closed hydrological basin any interference in surface or groundwater conditions in every part of its area affects the level of the lake. The level of the lake in 1900 was 525 masl, in 1942 was 542 masl reaching the higher level of 543 masl in 1956. The increase of the level of the lake was due to the drainage of Ptolemais (Sarigiol) swamp through Soulou drain ditches that transfer the water in the lake. Since then, a continuous drawdown took place with small periods of rising of water level. Today, the level of the lake is declined in a smaller rate having reached the level of 510 masl. Water coming from the lake has been used in the past, and in some cases still does, for agricultural, industrial and domestic use, for hydropower generation and for the cooling system of power plants. Moreover, P.P.C. (Public Power Corporation of Greece) develops an intense activity in the area with the exploitation of the lignite deposits of the basin and power generation in several Power Plants. Few years ago significant quantities from Vegoritis Lake were used for hydro power of Agras Power Plant. With the elaboration of the existent data (water level measurements, recharge, discharge) the connection between the lowering of the surface of the lake and the subtracted quantities through the Arnissa Tunel the first years of its use, is obvious. The last twenty years the condition has change. Outflow through the Arnissa Tunnel for hydropower has stopped. The continued lowering of the level of the lake is caused, mainly, by overexploitation due to the intense increase of the irrigating land

  10. Heating the Ice-Covered Lakes of the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica - Decadal Trends in Heat Content, Ice Thickness, and Heat Exchange

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gooseff, M. N.; Priscu, J. C.; Doran, P. T.; Chiuchiolo, A.; Obryk, M.

    2014-12-01

    Lakes integrate landscape processes and climate conditions. Most of the permanently ice-covered lakes in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica are closed basin, receiving glacial melt water from streams for 10-12 weeks per year. Lake levels rise during the austral summer are balanced by sublimation of ice covers (year-round) and evaporation of open water moats (summer only). Vertical profiles of water temperature have been measured in three lakes in Taylor Valley since 1988. Up to 2002, lake levels were dropping, ice covers were thickening, and total heat contents were decreasing. These lakes have been gaining heat since the mid-2000s, at rates as high as 19.5x1014 cal/decade). Since 2002, lake levels have risen substantially (as much as 2.5 m), and ice covers have thinned (1.5 m on average). Analyses of lake ice thickness, meteorological conditions, and stream water heat loads indicate that the main source of heat to these lakes is from latent heat released when ice-covers form during the winter. An aditional source of heat to the lakes is water inflows from streams and direct glacieal melt. Mean lake temperatures in the past few years have stabilized or cooled, despite increases in lake level and total heat content, suggesting increased direct inflow of meltwater from glaciers. These results indicate that McMurdo Dry Valley lakes are sensitive indicators of climate processes in this polar desert landscape and demonstrate the importance of long-term data sets when addressing the effects of climate on ecosystem processes.

  11. Trophic state in Voyageurs National Park lakes before and after implementation of a revised water-level management plan

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Christensen, Victoria G.; Maki, Ryan P.

    2015-01-01

    We compiled Secchi depth, total phosphorus, and chlorophyll a (Chla) data from Voyageurs National Park lakes and compared datasets before and after a new water-level management plan was implemented in January 2000. Average Secchi depth transparency improved (from 1.9 to 2.1 m, p = 0.020) between 1977-1999 and 2000-2011 in Kabetogama Lake for August samples only and remained unchanged in Rainy, Namakan, and Sand Point Lakes, and Black Bay in Rainy Lake. Average open-water season Chla concentration decreased in Black Bay (from an average of 13 to 6.0 μg/l, p = 0.001) and Kabetogama Lake (from 9.9 to 6.2 μg/l, p = 0.006) between 1977-1999 and 2000-2011. Trophic state index decreased significantly in Black Bay from 59 to 51 (p = 0.006) and in Kabetogama Lake from 57 to 50 (p = 0.006) between 1977-1999 and 2000-2011. Trophic state indices based on Chla indicated that after 2000, Sand Point, Namakan, and Rainy Lakes remained oligotrophic, whereas eutrophication has decreased in Kabetogama Lake and Black Bay. Although nutrient inputs from inflows and internal sources are still sufficient to produce annual cyanobacterial blooms and may inhibit designated water uses, trophic state has decreased for Kabetogama Lake and Black Bay and there has been no decline in lake ecosystem health since the implementation of the revised water-level management plan.

  12. Predicting habitat distribution to conserve seagrass threatened by sea level rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saunders, M. I.; Baldock, T.; Brown, C. J.; Callaghan, D. P.; Golshani, A.; Hamylton, S.; Hoegh-guldberg, O.; Leon, J. X.; Lovelock, C. E.; Lyons, M. B.; O'Brien, K.; Mumby, P.; Phinn, S. R.; Roelfsema, C. M.

    2013-12-01

    Sea level rise (SLR) over the 21st century will cause significant redistribution of valuable coastal habitats. Seagrasses form extensive and highly productive meadows in shallow coastal seas support high biodiversity, including economically valuable and threatened species. Predictive habitat models can inform local management actions that will be required to conserve seagrass faced with multiple stressors. We developed novel modelling approaches, based on extensive field data sets, to examine the effects of sea level rise and other stressors on two representative seagrass habitats in Australia. First, we modelled interactive effects of SLR, water clarity and adjacent land use on estuarine seagrass meadows in Moreton Bay, Southeast Queensland. The extent of suitable seagrass habitat was predicted to decline by 17% by 2100 due to SLR alone, but losses were predicted to be significantly reduced through improvements in water quality (Fig 1a) and by allowing space for seagrass migration with inundation. The rate of sedimentation in seagrass strongly affected the area of suitable habitat for seagrass in sea level rise scenarios (Fig 1b). Further research to understand spatial, temporal and environmental variability of sediment accretion in seagrass is required. Second, we modelled changes in wave energy distribution due to predicted SLR in a linked coral reef and seagrass ecosystem at Lizard Island, Great Barrier Reef. Scenarios where the water depth over the coral reef deepened due to SLR and minimal reef accretion, resulted in larger waves propagating shoreward, changing the existing hydrodynamic conditions sufficiently to reduce area of suitable habitat for seagrass. In a scenario where accretion of the coral reef was severely compromised (e.g. warming, acidification, overfishing), the probability of the presence of seagrass declined significantly. Management to maintain coral health will therefore also benefit seagrasses subject to SLR in reef environments. Further

  13. Cities and Sea Level Rise: A Roadmap for Flood Hazard Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Horn, D. P.; Cousins, A.

    2015-12-01

    Coastal cities will face a range of increasingly severe challenges as sea level rises, and adaptation to future flood risk will require more than structural defences. Many cities will not be able to rely solely on engineering structures for protection and will need to develop a suite of policy responses to increase their resilience to impacts of rising sea level. Local governments generally maintain day-to-day responsibility and control over the use of the vast majority of property at risk of flooding, and the tools to promote flood risk adaptation are already within the capacity of most cities. Policy tools available to address other land-use problems can be refashioned and used to adapt to sea level rise. This study reviews approaches for urban adaptation through case studies of cities which have developed flood adaptation strategies that combine structural defences with innovative approaches to living with flood risk. The aim of the overall project is to produce a 'roadmap' to guide practitioners through the process of analysing coastal flood risk in urban areas. Technical knowledge of flood risk reduction measures is complemented with a consideration of the essential impact that local policy has on the treatment of coastal flooding and the constraints and opportunities that result from the specific country or locality characteristics in relation to economic, political, social and environmental priorities, which are likely to dictate the approach to coastal flooding and the actions proposed. Detailed analyses of the adaptation strategies used by Rotterdam (Netherlands), Bristol (UK), and Norfolk (Virginia) are used to draw out a range of good practice elements that promote effective adaptation to sea level rise. These can be grouped into risk reduction, governance issues, and insurance, and can be used to provide examples of how other cities could adopt and implement flood adaptation strategies from a relatively limited starting position. Most cities will

  14. Possible impacts of sea level rise on disease transmission and potential adaptation strategies, a review.

    PubMed

    Dvorak, Ana C; Solo-Gabriele, Helena M; Galletti, Andrea; Benzecry, Bernardo; Malone, Hannah; Boguszewski, Vicki; Bird, Jason

    2018-07-01

    Sea levels are projected to rise in response to climate change, causing the intrusion of sea water into land. In flat coastal regions, this would generate an increase in shallow water covered areas with limited circulation. This scenario raises a concern about the consequences it could have on human health, specifically the possible impacts on disease transmission. In this review paper we identified three categories of diseases which are associated with water and whose transmission can be affected by sea level rise. These categories include: mosquitoborne diseases, naturalized organisms (Vibrio spp. and toxic algae), and fecal-oral diseases. For each disease category, we propose comprehensive adaptation strategies that would help minimize possible health risks. Finally, the City of Key West, Florida is analyzed as a case study, due to its inherent vulnerability to sea level rise. Current and projected adaptation techniques are discussed as well as the integration of additional recommendations, focused on disease transmission control. Given that sea level rise will likely continue into the future, the promotion and implementation of positive adaptation strategies is necessary to ensure community resilience. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Geodetic Vertical Datum of Peninsular Malaysia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Din, A. H. M.; Abazu, I. C.; Pa'suya, M. F.; Omar, K. M.; Hamid, A. I. A.

    2016-09-01

    Sea level rise is rapidly turning into major issues among our community and all levels of the government are working to develop responses to ensure these matters are given the uttermost attention in all facets of planning. It is more interesting to understand and investigate the present day sea level variation due its potential impact, particularly on our national geodetic vertical datum. To determine present day sea level variation, it is vital to consider both in-situ tide gauge and remote sensing measurements. This study presents an effort to quantify the sea level rise rate and magnitude over Peninsular Malaysia using tide gauge and multi-mission satellite altimeter. The time periods taken for both techniques are 32 years (from 1984 to 2015) for tidal data and 23 years (from 1993 to 2015) for altimetry data. Subsequently, the impact of sea level rise on Peninsular Malaysia Geodetic Vertical Datum (PMGVD) is evaluated in this study. the difference between MSL computed from 10 years (1984 - 1993) and 32 years (1984 - 2015) tidal data at Port Kelang showed that the increment of sea level is about 27mm. The computed magnitude showed an estimate of the long-term effect a change in MSL has on the geodetic vertical datum of Port Kelang tide gauge station. This will help give a new insight on the establishment of national geodetic vertical datum based on mean sea level data. Besides, this information can be used for a wide variety of climatic applications to study environmental issues related to flood and global warming in Malaysia.

  16. Tidal extension and sea-level rise: recommendations for a research agenda

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ensign, Scott H.; Noe, Gregory

    2018-01-01

    Sea-level rise is pushing freshwater tides upstream into formerly non-tidal rivers. This tidal extension may increase the area of tidal freshwater ecosystems and offset loss of ecosystem functions due to salinization downstream. Without considering how gains in ecosystem functions could offset losses, landscape-scale assessments of ecosystem functions may be biased toward worst-case scenarios of loss. To stimulate research on this concept, we address three fundamental questions about tidal extension: Where will tidal extension be most evident, and can we measure it? What ecosystem functions are influenced by tidal extension, and how can we measure them? How do watershed processes, climate change, and tidal extension interact to affect ecosystem functions? Our preliminary answers lead to recommendations that will advance tidal extension research, enable better predictions of the impacts of sea-level rise, and help balance the landscape-scale benefits of ecosystem function with costs of response.

  17. Estuarine Response to River Flow and Sea-Level Rise under Future Climate Change and Human Development

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Yang, Zhaoqing; Wang, Taiping; Voisin, Nathalie

    Understanding the response of river flow and estuarine hydrodynamics to climate change, land-use/land-cover change (LULC), and sea-level rise is essential to managing water resources and stress on living organisms under these changing conditions. This paper presents a modeling study using a watershed hydrology model and an estuarine hydrodynamic model, in a one-way coupling, to investigate the estuarine hydrodynamic response to sea-level rise and change in river flow due to the effect of future climate and LULC changes in the Snohomish River estuary, Washington, USA. A set of hydrodynamic variables, including salinity intrusion points, average water depth, and salinity of themore » inundated area, were used to quantify the estuarine response to river flow and sea-level rise. Model results suggest that salinity intrusion points in the Snohomish River estuary and the average salinity of the inundated areas are a nonlinear function of river flow, although the average water depth in the inundated area is approximately linear with river flow. Future climate changes will shift salinity intrusion points further upstream under low flow conditions and further downstream under high flow conditions. In contrast, under the future LULC change scenario, the salinity intrusion point will shift downstream under both low and high flow conditions, compared to present conditions. The model results also suggest that the average water depth in the inundated areas increases linearly with sea-level rise but at a slower rate, and the average salinity in the inundated areas increases linearly with sea-level rise; however, the response of salinity intrusion points in the river to sea-level rise is strongly nonlinear.« less

  18. Late Quaternary tectonic activity and lake level change in the Rukwa Rift Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Delvaux, D.; Kervyn, F.; Vittori, E.; Kajara, R. S. A.; Kilembe, E.

    1998-04-01

    Interpretation of remotely sensed images and air photographs, compilation of geological and topographical maps, morphostructural and fault kinematic observations and 14C dating reveal that, besides obvious climatic influences, the lake water extent and sedimentation in the closed hydrological system of Lake Rukwa is strongly influenced by tectonic processes. A series of sandy ridges, palaeolacustrine terraces and palaeounderwater delta fans are related to an Early Holocene high lake level and subsequent progressive lowering. The maximum lake level was controlled by the altitude of the watershed between the Rukwa and Tanganyika hydrological systems. Taking as reference the present elevation of the palaeolacustrine terraces around Lake Rukwa, two orders of vertical tectonic movement are evidenced: i) a general uplift centred on the Rungwe Volcanic Province between the Rukwa and Malawi Rift Basins; and ii) a tectonic northeastward tilting of the entire Rukwa Rift Basin, including the depression and rift shoulders. This is supported by the observed hydromorphological evolution. Local uplift is also induced by the development of an active fault zone in the central part of the depression, in a prolongation of the Mbeya Range-Galula Fault system. The Ufipa and Lupa Border Faults, bounding the Rukwa depression on the southwestern and northeastern sides, respectively, exert passive sedimentation control only. They appear inactive or at least less active in the Late Quaternary than during the previous rifting stage. The main Late Quaternary tectonic activity is represented by dextral strike-slip movement along the Mbeya Range-Galula Fault system, in the middle of the Rukwa Rift Basin, and by normal dip-slip movements along the Kanda Fault, in the western rift shoulder.

  19. The economic impact of sea-level rise on nonmarket lands in Singapore.

    PubMed

    Ng, Wei-Shiuen; Mendelsohn, Robert

    2006-09-01

    Sea-level rise, as a result of climate change, will likely inflict considerable economic consequences on coastal regions, particularly low-lying island states like Singapore. Although the literature has addressed the vulnerability of developed coastal lands, this is the first economic study to address nonmarket lands, such as beaches, marshes and mangrove estuaries. This travel cost and contingent valuation study reveals that consumers in Singapore attach considerable value to beaches. The contingent valuation study also attached high values to marshes and mangroves but this result was not supported by the travel cost study. Although protecting nonmarket land uses from sea-level rise is expensive, the study shows that at least highly valued resources, such as Singapore's popular beaches, should be protected.

  20. Estimating Areas of Vulnerability: Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Hazards in the National Parks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caffrey, M.; Beavers, R. L.; Slayton, I. A.

    2013-12-01

    The University of Colorado Boulder in collaboration with the National Park Service has undertaken the task of compiling sea level change and storm surge data for 105 coastal parks. The aim of our research is to highlight areas of the park system that are at increased risk of rapid inundation as well as periodic flooding due to sea level rise and storms. This research will assist park managers and planners in adapting to climate change. The National Park Service incorporates climate change data into many of their planning documents and is willing to implement innovative coastal adaptation strategies. Events such as Hurricane Sandy highlight how impacts of coastal hazards will continue to challenge management of natural and cultural resources and infrastructure along our coastlines. This poster will discuss the current status of this project. We discuss the impacts of Hurricane Sandy as well as the latest sea level rise and storm surge modeling being employed in this project. In addition to evaluating various drivers of relative sea-level change, we discuss how park planners and managers also need to consider projected storm surge values added to sea-level rise magnitudes, which could further complicate the management of coastal lands. Storm surges occurring at coastal parks will continue to change the land and seascapes of these areas, with the potential to completely submerge them. The likelihood of increased storm intensity added to increasing rates of sea-level rise make predicting the reach of future storm surges essential for planning and adaptation purposes. The National Park Service plays a leading role in developing innovative strategies for coastal parks to adapt to sea-level rise and storm surge, whilst coastal storms are opportunities to apply highly focused responses.

  1. Effects of abiotic factors on ecosystem health of Taihu Lake, China based on eco-exergy theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Ce; Bi, Jun; Fath, Brian D.

    2017-02-01

    A lake ecosystem is continuously exposed to environmental stressors with non-linear interrelationships between abiotic factors and aquatic organisms. Ecosystem health depicts the capacity of system to respond to external perturbations and still maintain structure and function. In this study, we explored the effects of abiotic factors on ecosystem health of Taihu Lake in 2013, China from a system-level perspective. Spatiotemporal heterogeneities of eco-exergy and specific eco-exergy served as thermodynamic indicators to represent ecosystem health in the lake. The results showed the plankton community appeared more energetic in May, and relatively healthy in Gonghu Bay with both higher eco-exergy and specific eco-exergy; a eutrophic state was likely discovered in Zhushan Bay with higher eco-exergy but lower specific eco-exergy. Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM) approach was used to explain the non-linear relationships between two indicators and abiotic factors. This analysis revealed water temperature, inorganic nutrients, and total suspended solids greatly contributed to the two indicators that increased. However, pH rise driven by inorganic carbon played an important role in undermining ecosystem health, particularly when pH was higher than 8.2. This implies that climate change with rising CO2 concentrations has the potential to aggravate eutrophication in Taihu Lake where high nutrient loads are maintained.

  2. Effects of abiotic factors on ecosystem health of Taihu Lake, China based on eco-exergy theory

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Ce; Bi, Jun; Fath, Brian D.

    2017-01-01

    A lake ecosystem is continuously exposed to environmental stressors with non-linear interrelationships between abiotic factors and aquatic organisms. Ecosystem health depicts the capacity of system to respond to external perturbations and still maintain structure and function. In this study, we explored the effects of abiotic factors on ecosystem health of Taihu Lake in 2013, China from a system-level perspective. Spatiotemporal heterogeneities of eco-exergy and specific eco-exergy served as thermodynamic indicators to represent ecosystem health in the lake. The results showed the plankton community appeared more energetic in May, and relatively healthy in Gonghu Bay with both higher eco-exergy and specific eco-exergy; a eutrophic state was likely discovered in Zhushan Bay with higher eco-exergy but lower specific eco-exergy. Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM) approach was used to explain the non-linear relationships between two indicators and abiotic factors. This analysis revealed water temperature, inorganic nutrients, and total suspended solids greatly contributed to the two indicators that increased. However, pH rise driven by inorganic carbon played an important role in undermining ecosystem health, particularly when pH was higher than 8.2. This implies that climate change with rising CO2 concentrations has the potential to aggravate eutrophication in Taihu Lake where high nutrient loads are maintained. PMID:28220835

  3. Vulnerability of the Nile Delta coastal areas to inundation by sea level rise.

    PubMed

    Hassaan, M A; Abdrabo, M A

    2013-08-01

    Sea level changes are typically caused by several natural phenomena, including ocean thermal expansion, glacial melt from Greenland and Antarctica. Global average sea level is expected to rise, through the twenty-first century, according to the IPCC projections by between 0.18 and 0.59 cm. Such a rise in sea level will significantly impact coastal area of the Nile Delta, consisting generally of lowland and is densely populated areas and accommodates significant proportion of Egypt's economic activities and built-up areas. The Nile Delta has been examined in several previous studies, which worked under various hypothetical sea level rise (SLR) scenarios and provided different estimates of areas susceptible to inundation due to SLR. The paper intends, in this respect, to identify areas, as well as land use/land cover, susceptible to inundation by SLR based upon most recent scenarios of SLR, by the year 2100 using GIS. The results indicate that about 22.49, 42.18, and 49.22 % of the total area of coastal governorates of the Nile Delta would be susceptible to inundation under different scenarios of SLR. Also, it was found that 15.56 % of the total areas of the Nile Delta that would be vulnerable to inundation due to land subsidence only, even in the absence of any rise in sea level. Moreover, it was found that a considerable proportion of these areas (ranging between 32.32 and 53.66 %) are currently either wetland or undeveloped areas. Furthermore, natural and/or man-made structures, such as the banks of the International Coastal Highway, were found to provide unintended protection to some of these areas. This suggests that the inundation impact of SLR on the Nile Delta is less than previously reported.

  4. Assessment on vulnerability of coastal wetlands to sea level rise in the Yangtze Estuary, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cui, L.; Ge, Z.; Zhang, L.

    2013-12-01

    The Yangtze Delta in China is vital economic hubs in terms of settlement, industry, agriculture, trade and tourism as well as of great environmental significance. In recent decades, the prospect of climate change, in particular sea level rise and its effects on low lying coastal areas have generated worldwide attention to coastal ecosystems. Coastal wetlands, as important parts of coastal ecosystem, are particularly sensitive to sea level rise. To study the responses of coastal wetlands to climate change, assess the impacts of climate change on coastal wetlands and formulate feasible and practical mitigation strategies are the important prerequisites for securing the coastal zone ecosystems. In this study, taking the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary as a case study, the potential impacts of sea-level rise to coastal wetlands habitat were analyzed by the Source-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence (SPRC) model. The key indicators, such as the sea-level rise rate, subsidence rate, elevation, daily inundation duration of habitat and sedimentation rate, were selected to build a vulnerability assessment system according to the IPCC definition of vulnerability, i.e. the aspects of exposure, sensitivity and adaptation. A quantitatively spatial assessment method on the GIS platform was established by quantifying each indicator, calculating the vulnerability index and grading the vulnerability. The vulnerability assessment on the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary under the sea level rise rate of the present trend and IPCC A1F1 scenario were performed for three sets of projections of short-term (2030s), mid-term (2050s) and long-term (2100s). The results showed that at the present trend of sea level rise rate of 0.26 cm/a, 92.3 % of the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary was in the EVI score of 0 in 2030s, i.e. the impact of sea level rise on habitats/species of coastal wetlands was negligible. While 7.4 % and 0.3 % of the coastal wetlands were in the EVI score of

  5. Understanding the Effects of Sea-Level Rise on Coastal Wetlands: The Human Dimension

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reed, Denise

    2010-05-01

    In the 21st century coastal systems are subject to the pressures of centuries of population growth and resource exploitation. In 2003, in the US approximately 153 million people (53 percent of the population) lived in coastal counties, an increase of 33 million people since 1980 and this is expected to increase by approximately 7 million by the year 2008. Eight of the world's top ten largest cities are located at the coast, 44 % of the world's population (more people than inhabited the entire globe in 1950) live within 150 km of the coast and in 2001 over half the world's population lived within 200 km of a coastline. . Increased population density at the coasts often brings pollution and habitat degradation - decreasing the value of many of the resources that initially attract the coastal development - and it also means the effect of sea-level rise on coastal geomorphic systems must be seen in the context of additional human pressures. For global sea-level debate centers on the magnitude and rate of the rise around most of the world; the exception being those areas still experiencing falling sea-levels due to isostatic rebound. Many coastal island states are clearly vulnerable. While the ‘lurid and misleading maps' of the 1980's used by many to indicate areas to be flooded by rising seas in the future, have been replaced by more considered discussion of the response of coastal dynamics to rising seas there is still considerable debate about the amount of sea-level rise shorelines will experience in the 21st century. For coastal wetlands four main sets of physical factors - fine sediment regime; tidal conditions; coastal configuration; and relative sea-level change - define the geomorphic context for coastal marsh development and survival during the 21st century. Each of these factors is influenced by changes in climate and human alterations to coastal and inshore environments. In turn changes in sediment dynamics are mediated by both physical forcing and biotic

  6. Added value from 576 years of tree-ring records in the prediction of the Great Salt Lake level

    Treesearch

    Robert R. Gillies; Oi-Yu Chung; S.-Y. Simon Wang; R. Justin DeRose; Yan Sun

    2015-01-01

    Predicting lake level fluctuations of the Great Salt Lake (GSL) in Utah - the largest terminal salt-water lake in the Western Hemisphere - is critical from many perspectives. The GSL integrates both climate and hydrological variations within the region and is particularly sensitive to low-frequency climate cycles. Since most hydroclimate variable records cover...

  7. Decision-making Processes among Prostate Cancer Survivors with Rising PSA Levels: Results from a Qualitative Analysis.

    PubMed

    Shen, Megan Johnson; Nelson, Christian J; Peters, Ellen; Slovin, Susan F; Hall, Simon J; Hall, Matt; Herrera, Phapichaya Chaoprang; Leventhal, Elaine A; Leventhal, Howard; Diefenbach, Michael A

    2015-05-01

    Prostate cancer survivors with a rising prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level have few treatment options, experience a heightened state of uncertainty about their disease trajectory that might include the possibility of cancer metastasis and death, and often experience elevated levels of distress as they have to deal with a disease they thought they had conquered. Guided by self-regulation theory, the present study examined the cognitive and affective processes involved in shared decision making between physicians and patients who experience a rising PSA after definitive treatment for prostate cancer. In-depth interviews were conducted with 34 prostate cancer survivors who had been diagnosed with a rising PSA (i.e., biochemical failure) within the past 12 months. Survivors were asked about their experiences and affective responses after being diagnosed with a rising PSA and while weighing potential treatment options. In addition, patients were asked about their decision-making process for the initial prostate cancer treatment. Compared with the initial diagnosis, survivors with a rising PSA reported increased negative affect following their diagnosis, concern about the treatability of their disease, increased planning and health behavior change, heightened levels of worry preceding doctor appointments (especially prior to the discussion of PSA testing results), and a strong reliance on physicians' treatment recommendations. Prostate cancer survivors' decision-making processes for the treatment of a rising PSA are markedly different from those of the initial diagnosis of prostate cancer. Because patients experience heightened distress and rely more heavily on their physicians' recommendations with a rising PSA, interactions with the health care provider provide an excellent opportunity to address and assist patients with managing the uncertainty and distress inherent with rising PSA levels. © The Author(s) 2014.

  8. Hurricane effects on a shallow lake ecosystem and its response to a controlled manipulation of water level.

    PubMed

    Havens, K E; Jin, K R; Rodusky, A J; Sharfstein, B; Brady, M A; East, T L; Iricanin, N; James, R T; Harwell, M C; Steinman, A D

    2001-04-04

    In order to reverse the damage to aquatic plant communities caused by multiple years of high water levels in Lake Okeechobee, Florida (U.S.), the Governing Board of the South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD) authorized a "managed recession" to substantially lower the surface elevation of the lake in spring 2000. The operation was intended to achieve lower water levels for at least 8 weeks during the summer growing season, and was predicted to result in a large-scale recovery of submerged vascular plants. We treated this operation as a whole ecosystem experiment, and assessed ecological responses using data from an existing network of water quality and submerged plant monitoring sites. As a result of large-scale discharges of water from the lake, coupled with losses to evaporation and to water supply deliveries to agriculture and other regional users, the lake surface elevation receded by approximately 1 m between April and June. Water depths in shoreline areas that historically supported submerged plant communities declined from near 1.5 m to below 0.5 m. Low water levels persisted for the entire summer. Despite shallow depths, the initial response (in June 2000) of submerged plants was very limited and water remained highly turbid (due at first to abiotic seston and later to phytoplankton blooms). Turbidity decreased in July and the biomass of plants increased. However, submerged plant biomass did not exceed levels observed during summer 1999 (when water depths were greater) until August. Furthermore, a vascular plant-dominated assemblage (Vallisneria, Potamogeton, and Hydrilla) that occurred in 1999 was replaced with a community of nearly 98% Chara spp. (a macro-alga) in 2000. Hence, the lake"s submerged plant community appeared to revert to an earlier successional stage despite what appeared to be better conditions for growth. To explain this unexpected response, we evaluated the impacts that Hurricane Irene may have had on the lake in the previous

  9. Body burden levels of dioxin, furans, and PCBs among frequent consumers of Great Lakes sport fish

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Falk, C.; Hanrahan, L.; Anderson, H.A.

    1999-02-01

    Dioxins, furans, and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) are toxic, persist in the environment, and bioaccumulate to concentrations that can be harmful to humans. The Health Departments of five GL states, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Illinois, and Indiana, formed a consortium to study body burden levels of chemical residues in fish consumers of Lakes Michigan, Huron, and Erie. In Fall 1993, a telephone survey was administered to sport angler households to obtain fish consumption habits and demographics. A blood sample was obtained from a portion of the study subjects. One hundred serum samples were analyzed for 8 dioxin, 10 furan, and 4 coplanarmore » PCB congeners. Multiple linear regression was conducted to assess the predictability of the following covariates: GL sport fish species, age, BMI, gender, years sport fish consumed, and lake. Median total dioxin toxic equivalents (TEq), total furan TEq, and total coplanar PCB TEq were higher among all men than all women (P = 0.0001). Lake trout, salmon, age, BMI, and gender were significant regression predictors of log (total coplanar PCBs). Lake trout, age, gender, and lake were significant regression predictors of log (total furans). Age was the only significant predictor of total dioxin levels.« less

  10. Hydrology of the Reelfoot Lake basin, Obion and Lake counties, northwestern Tennessee

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Robbins, C.H.

    1985-01-01

    Nine maps describe the following water resources aspects of the Reelfoot Lake watershed: Map 1-Surface water gaging stations, lake level, and locations of observation wells, rainfall stations and National Weather Service rainfall stations; Maps 2 and 3-water level contours, river stage, groundwater movement; Maps 4 and 5-grid blocks simulating constant head on the Mississippi River, Reelfoot Lake, Running Reelfoot Bayou, Reelfoot Creek, and Running Slough; Maps 6 and 7-difference between model calculated and observed water levels; and Maps 8 and 9-line of equal groundwater level increase and approximate lake area at pool elevation. (Lantz-PTT)

  11. The multi-millennial Antarctic commitment to future sea-level rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Golledge, N. R.; Kowalewski, D. E.; Naish, T. R.; Levy, R. H.; Fogwill, C. J.; Gasson, E. G. W.

    2015-10-01

    Atmospheric warming is projected to increase global mean surface temperatures by 0.3 to 4.8 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial values by the end of this century. If anthropogenic emissions continue unchecked, the warming increase may reach 8-10 degrees Celsius by 2300 (ref. 2). The contribution that large ice sheets will make to sea-level rise under such warming scenarios is difficult to quantify because the equilibrium-response timescale of ice sheets is longer than those of the atmosphere or ocean. Here we use a coupled ice-sheet/ice-shelf model to show that if atmospheric warming exceeds 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius above present, collapse of the major Antarctic ice shelves triggers a centennial- to millennial-scale response of the Antarctic ice sheet in which enhanced viscous flow produces a long-term commitment (an unstoppable contribution) to sea-level rise. Our simulations represent the response of the present-day Antarctic ice-sheet system to the oceanic and climatic changes of four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We find that substantial Antarctic ice loss can be prevented only by limiting greenhouse gas emissions to RCP 2.6 levels. Higher-emissions scenarios lead to ice loss from Antarctic that will raise sea level by 0.6-3 metres by the year 2300. Our results imply that greenhouse gas emissions in the next few decades will strongly influence the long-term contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to global sea level.

  12. The multi-millennial Antarctic commitment to future sea-level rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Golledge, Nicholas R.; Kowalewski, Douglas E.; Naish, Timothy R.; Levy, Richard H.; Fogwill, Christopher J.; Gasson, Edward G. W.

    2016-04-01

    Atmospheric warming is projected to increase global mean surface temperatures by 0.3 to 4.8 degrees Celsius above present values by the end of this century (Collins et al., 2013). If anthropogenic emissions continue unchecked, the warming increase may reach 8-10 degrees Celsius by 2300 (Rogelj et al., 2012). The contribution that large ice sheets will make to sea-level rise under such warming scenarios is difficult to quantify because the equilibrium-response timescale of ice sheets is longer than those of the atmosphere or ocean. Here we use a coupled ice-sheet/ice-shelf model to show that if atmospheric warming exceeds 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius above present, collapse of the major Antarctic ice shelves triggers a centennial- to millennial-scale response of the Antarctic ice sheet in which enhanced viscous flow produces a long-term commitment (an unstoppable contribution) to sea-level rise. Our simulations represent the response of the present-day Antarctic ice-sheet system to the oceanic and climatic changes of four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Collins et al., 2013). We find that substantial Antarctic ice loss can be prevented only by limiting greenhouse gas emissions to RCP 2.6 levels. Higher-emissions scenarios lead to ice loss from Antarctic that will raise sea level by 0.6-3 metres by the year 2300. Our results imply that greenhouse gas emissions in the next few decades will strongly influence the long-term contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to global sea level.

  13. The multi-millennial Antarctic commitment to future sea-level rise.

    PubMed

    Golledge, N R; Kowalewski, D E; Naish, T R; Levy, R H; Fogwill, C J; Gasson, E G W

    2015-10-15

    Atmospheric warming is projected to increase global mean surface temperatures by 0.3 to 4.8 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial values by the end of this century. If anthropogenic emissions continue unchecked, the warming increase may reach 8-10 degrees Celsius by 2300 (ref. 2). The contribution that large ice sheets will make to sea-level rise under such warming scenarios is difficult to quantify because the equilibrium-response timescale of ice sheets is longer than those of the atmosphere or ocean. Here we use a coupled ice-sheet/ice-shelf model to show that if atmospheric warming exceeds 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius above present, collapse of the major Antarctic ice shelves triggers a centennial- to millennial-scale response of the Antarctic ice sheet in which enhanced viscous flow produces a long-term commitment (an unstoppable contribution) to sea-level rise. Our simulations represent the response of the present-day Antarctic ice-sheet system to the oceanic and climatic changes of four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We find that substantial Antarctic ice loss can be prevented only by limiting greenhouse gas emissions to RCP 2.6 levels. Higher-emissions scenarios lead to ice loss from Antarctic that will raise sea level by 0.6-3 metres by the year 2300. Our results imply that greenhouse gas emissions in the next few decades will strongly influence the long-term contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to global sea level.

  14. Development of sea level rise scenarios for climate change assessments of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Doyle, Thomas W.; Day, Richard H.; Michot, Thomas C.

    2010-01-01

    Rising sea level poses critical ecological and economical consequences for the low-lying megadeltas of the world where dependent populations and agriculture are at risk. The Mekong Delta of Vietnam is one of many deltas that are especially vulnerable because much of the land surface is below mean sea level and because there is a lack of coastal barrier protection. Food security related to rice and shrimp farming in the Mekong Delta is currently under threat from saltwater intrusion, relative sea level rise, and storm surge potential. Understanding the degree of potential change in sea level under climate change is needed to undertake regional assessments of potential impacts and to formulate adaptation strategies. This report provides constructed time series of potential sea level rise scenarios for the Mekong Delta region by incorporating (1) aspects of observed intra- and inter-annual sea level variability from tide records and (2) projected estimates for different rates of regional subsidence and accelerated eustacy through the year 2100 corresponding with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate models and emission scenarios.

  15. On the rate and causes of twentieth century sea-level rise.

    PubMed

    Miller, Laury; Douglas, Bruce C

    2006-04-15

    Both the rate and causes of twentieth century global sea-level rise (GSLR) have been controversial. Estimates from tide-gauges range from less than one, to more than two millimetre yr(-1). In contrast, values based on the processes mostly responsible for GSLR-mass increase (from mountain glaciers and the great high latitude ice masses) and volume increase (expansion due to ocean warming)-fall below this range. Either the gauge estimates are too high, or one (or both) of the component estimates is too low. Gauge estimates of GSLR have been in dispute for several decades because of vertical land movements, especially due to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). More recently, the possibility has been raised that coastal tide-gauges measure exaggerated rates of sea-level rise because of localized ocean warming. Presented here are two approaches to a resolution of these problems. The first is morphological, based on the limiting values of observed trends of twentieth century relative sea-level rise as a function of distance from the centres of the ice loads at last glacial maximum. This observational approach, which does not depend on a geophysical model of GIA, supports values of GSLR near 2 mm yr(-1). The second approach involves an analysis of long records of tide-gauge and hydrographic (in situ temperature and salinity) observations in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. It was found that sea-level trends from tide-gauges, which reflect both mass and volume change, are 2-3 times higher than rates based on hydrographic data which reveal only volume change. These results support those studies that put the twentieth century rate near 2 mm yr(-1), thereby indicating that mass increase plays a much larger role than ocean warming in twentieth century GSLR.

  16. Allowances for evolving coastal flood risk under uncertain local sea-level rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buchanan, M. K.; Kopp, R. E.; Oppenheimer, M.; Tebaldi, C.

    2015-12-01

    Sea-level rise (SLR) causes estimates of flood risk made under the assumption of stationary mean sea level to be biased low. However, adjustments to flood return levels made assuming fixed increases of sea level are also inaccurate when applied to sea level that is rising over time at an uncertain rate. To accommodate both the temporal dynamics of SLR and their uncertainty, we develop an Average Annual Design Life Level (AADLL) metric and associated SLR allowances [1,2]. The AADLL is the flood level corresponding to a time-integrated annual expected probability of occurrence (AEP) under uncertainty over the lifetime of an asset; AADLL allowances are the adjustment from 2000 levels that maintain current risk. Given non-stationary and uncertain SLR, AADLL flood levels and allowances provide estimates of flood protection heights and offsets for different planning horizons and different levels of confidence in SLR projections in coastal areas. Allowances are a function primarily of local SLR and are nearly independent of AEP. Here we employ probabilistic SLR projections [3] to illustrate the calculation of AADLL flood levels and allowances with a representative set of long-duration tide gauges along U.S. coastlines. [1] Rootzen et al., 2014, Water Resources Research 49: 5964-5972. [2] Hunter, 2013, Ocean Engineering 71: 17-27. [3] Kopp et al., 2014, Earth's Future 2: 383-406.

  17. Marshes to mudflats—Effects of sea-level rise on tidal marshes along a latitudinal gradient in the Pacific Northwest

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thorne, Karen M.; Dugger, Bruce D.; Buffington, Kevin J.; Freeman, Chase M.; Janousek, Christopher N.; Powelson, Katherine W.; Gutenspergen, Glenn R.; Takekawa, John Y.

    2015-11-17

    In the Pacific Northwest, coastal wetlands support a wealth of ecosystem services including habitat provision for wildlife and fisheries and flood protection. The tidal marshes, mudflats, and shallow bays of coastal estuaries link marine, freshwater, and terrestrial habitats, and provide economic and recreational benefits to local communities. Climate change effects such as sea-level rise are altering these habitats, but we know little about how these areas will change over the next 50–100 years. Our study examined the effects of sea-level rise on nine tidal marshes in Washington and Oregon between 2012 and 2015, with the goal of providing scientific data to support future coastal planning and conservation. We compiled physical and biological data, including coastal topography, tidal inundation, vegetation structure, as well as recent and historical sediment accretion rates, to assess and model how sea-level rise may alter these ecosystems in the future. Multiple factors, including initial elevation, marsh productivity, sediment availability, and rates of sea-level rise, affected marsh persistence. Under a low sea-level rise scenario, all marshes remained vegetated with little change in the present configuration of communities of marsh plants or gradually increased proportions of middle-, high-, or transition-elevation zones of marsh vegetation. However, at most sites, mid sea-level rise projections led to loss of habitat of middle and high marshes and a gain of low marshes. Under a high sea-level rise scenario, marshes at most sites eventually converted to intertidal mudflats. Two sites (Grays Harbor and Willapa) seemed to have the most resilience to a high rate of rise in sea-level, persisting as low marsh until at least 2110. Our main model finding is that most tidal marsh study sites are resilient to sea-level rise over the next 50–70 years, but that sea-level rise will eventually outpace marsh accretion and drown most habitats of high and middle marshes by

  18. Extreme sea levels on the rise along Europe's coasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vousdoukas, Michalis I.; Mentaschi, Lorenzo; Voukouvalas, Evangelos; Verlaan, Martin; Feyen, Luc

    2017-03-01

    Future extreme sea levels (ESLs) and flood risk along European coasts will be strongly impacted by global warming. Yet, comprehensive projections of ESL that include mean sea level (MSL), tides, waves, and storm surges do not exist. Here, we show changes in all components of ESLs until 2100 in view of climate change. We find that by the end of this century, the 100-year ESL along Europe's coastlines is on average projected to increase by 57 cm for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)4.5 and 81 cm for RCP8.5. The North Sea region is projected to face the highest increase in ESLs, amounting to nearly 1 m under RCP8.5 by 2100, followed by the Baltic Sea and Atlantic coasts of the UK and Ireland. Relative sea level rise (RSLR) is shown to be the main driver of the projected rise in ESL, with increasing dominance toward the end of the century and for the high-concentration pathway. Changes in storm surges and waves enhance the effects of RSLR along the majority of northern European coasts, locally with contributions up to 40%. In southern Europe, episodic extreme events tend to stay stable, except along the Portuguese coast and the Gulf of Cadiz where reductions in surge and wave extremes offset RSLR by 20-30%. By the end of this century, 5 million Europeans currently under threat of a 100-year ESL could be annually at risk from coastal flooding under high-end warming. The presented dataset is available through this link: http://data.jrc.ec.europa.eu/collection/LISCOAST.

  19. Assessing Water Level Changes in Lake, Reservoir, Wetland, and River Systems with Remote Sensing Tools and Hydrological Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ricko, M.; Birkett, C. M.; Beckley, B. D.

    2017-12-01

    The NASA/USDA Global Reservoir and Lake Monitor (G-REALM) offers multi-mission satellite radar altimetry derived surface water level products for a subset of large reservoirs, lakes, and wetlands. These products complement the in situ networks by providing stage information at un-gauged locations, and filling existing data gaps. The availability of both satellite-based rainfall (e.g., TRMM, GPCP) and surface water level products offers great opportunities to estimate and monitor additional hydrologic properties of the lake/reservoir systems. A simple water balance model relating the net freshwater flux over a catchment basin to the lake/reservoir level has been previously utilized (Ricko et al., 2011). The applicability of this approach enables the construction of a longer record of surface water level, i.e. improving the climate data record. As instrument technology and data availability evolve, this method can be used to estimate the water level of a greater number of water bodies, and a greater number of much smaller targets. In addition, such information can improve water balance estimation in different lake, reservoir, wetland, and river systems, and be very useful for assessment of improved prediction of surface water availability. Connections to climatic variations on inter-annual to inter-decadal time-scales are explored here, with a focus on a future ability to predict changes in storage volume for water resources or natural hazards concerns.

  20. Effects of Sea Level Rise on Groundwater Flow Paths in a Coastal Aquifer System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morrissey, S. K.; Clark, J. F.; Bennett, M. W.; Richardson, E.; Stute, M.

    2008-05-01

    Changes in groundwater flow in the Floridan aquifer system, South Florida, from the rise in sea level at the end of the last glacial period may be indicative of changes coastal aquifers will experience with continued sea level rise. As sea level rises, the hydraulic head near the coast increases. Coastal aquifers can therefore experience decreased groundwater gradients (increased residence times) and seawater intrusion. Stable isotopes of water, dissolved noble gas temperatures, radiocarbon and He concentrations were analyzed in water collected from 68 wells in the Floridan aquifer system throughout South Florida. Near the recharge area, geochemical data along groundwater flow paths in the Upper Floridan aquifer show a transition from recently recharged groundwater to glacial-aged water. Down gradient from this transition, little variation is apparent in the stable isotopes and noble gas recharge temperatures, indicating that most of the Upper Floridan aquifer contains groundwater recharged during the last glacial period. The rapid 120-meter rise in sea level marking the end of the last glacial period increased the hydraulic head in the Floridan aquifer system near the coast, slowing the flow of groundwater from the recharge area to the ocean and trapping glacial-aged groundwater. The raised sea level also flooded half of the Florida platform and caused seawater to intrude into the Lower Floridan. This circulation of seawater in the Lower Floridan continues today as our data indicate that the groundwater is similar to modern seawater with a freshwater component entering vertically from the recharge area to the Upper Floridan.

  1. Lasting Effects of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods on Subglacial Drainage Networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robbins, M.; Hendy, I. L.; Bassis, J. N.; Aciego, S.; Stevenson, E. I.

    2017-12-01

    Supraglacial lakes forming in the ablation zone around the Greenland Ice Sheet will likely migrate toward higher elevations as polar temperatures rise through the 21st century. Present understanding of lake drainage shows it can temporarily enhance ice sheet motion, but other possible effects and interactions - especially with older pre-existing subglacial reservoirs - remain unexamined. Here we investigate possible enduring effects of the record high 2012 melt year on the en/subglacial hydrologic network, how this network responds to immediate high fluxes of water from floods, and how these phenomena might connect to previously isolated subglacial pools. Lake Hullet is a large ice dammed lake situated in south Greenland 22km up-ice from where Kiattuut Sermiat (KS) branches from a larger outlet glacier. Lake Hullet rests on bedrock and is contained by a bedrock ridge. It drains roughly annually through Lake Hullet's hydrologic network in a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) when water level rises such that it can flow over the obstructive ridge. Subglacial water samples collected from the toe of KS in July 2013 pre-flood were dated using U isotopes with 222Rn concentrations as well as noble gas ratios. These two independent methods reveal an exceedingly old water age of > 1000 years, indicating existence of isolated enduring subglacial meltwater pool(s). A comparison field study at the KS toe in August and September 2015 re-examined glacial hydrochemistry in a time series. 2015 222Rn concentrations are lower than 2013 values, suggesting less water-rock interaction, a reduction in residence time, and a proximal meltwater source. Increased water volume from the record high 2012 melt year may have enlarged the existing en/subglacial drainage network further into the ice sheet releasing meltwater with longer residence times beneath the ice, with effects lasting into subsequent melt seasons due to the stability of channels maintained from recurrent floods. These

  2. Patterns and Potential Drivers of Dramatic Changes in Tibetan Lakes, 1972–2010

    PubMed Central

    Li, Yingkui; Liao, Jingjuan; Guo, Huadong; Liu, Zewen; Shen, Guozhuang

    2014-01-01

    Most glaciers in the Himalayas and the Tibetan Plateau are retreating, and glacier melt has been emphasized as the dominant driver for recent lake expansions on the Tibetan Plateau. By investigating detailed changes in lake extents and levels across the Tibetan Plateau from Landsat/ICESat data, we found a pattern of dramatic lake changes from 1970 to 2010 (especially after 2000) with a southwest-northeast transition from shrinking, to stable, to rapidly expanding. This pattern is in distinct contrast to the spatial characteristics of glacier retreat, suggesting limited influence of glacier melt on lake dynamics. The plateau-wide pattern of lake change is related to precipitation variation and consistent with the pattern of permafrost degradation induced by rising temperature. More than 79% of lakes we observed on the central-northern plateau (with continuous permafrost) are rapidly expanding, even without glacial contributions, while lakes fed by retreating glaciers in southern regions (with isolated permafrost) are relatively stable or shrinking. Our study shows the limited role of glacier melt and highlights the potentially important contribution of permafrost degradation in predicting future water availability in this region, where understanding these processes is of critical importance to drinking water, agriculture, and hydropower supply of densely populated areas in South and East Asia. PMID:25372787

  3. Reconstruction of Sea/Lake-Level Changes in an Active Strike-Slip Basin (Gulf of Cariaco, NE Venezuela)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Daele, M.; Audemard, F.; Beck, C.; de Batist, M.; van Welden, A.; Moernaut, J.; 2006 Shipboard Party, G.

    2008-05-01

    In January 2006, 76 high-resolution reflection seismic profiles were acquired in the Gulf of Cariaco, Northeast Venezuela. In the upper 100 m of sedimentary infill, 17 unconformity-bounded sequences were identified and mapped throughout the basin. Up to now, no core or borehole information is available to provide age constraints on these units. The sedimentary infill is cut by several faults, Riedel faults in the central part and the El Pilar fault (one of the main faults of the South American-Caribbean plate boundary) in the southern part of the gulf. The connection of the Gulf of Cariaco with the adjacent Cariaco Basin occurs at a present-day water depth of ~ 55 m. This implies that the gulf was disconnected from the world ocean and functioned as a lake during a large part of the last glacial. The main rivers entering the gulf drain the coastal mountain ranges and tend to form pronounced deltas at their inlet. During times when the gulf was a lake, periods with a dry climate resulted in dramatic lake-level lowstands and even complete desiccation/evaporation. The present-day depths of delta offlap breaks and the presence of lowstand/evaporite deposits can thus be used to estimate sea/lake level at the time of their formation. Detailed analysis of these stratigraphic sea/lake-level indicators allowed reconstructing the sea/lake-level history for the period encompassed by the 17 identified sequences. This sea/lake-level reconstruction also needed to be corrected for tectonic subsidence, affecting different parts of the gulf with different intensity. The reconstructed sea/lake-level curve of the Gulf of Cariaco was compared with the eustatic sea-level curve and with results of previous paleoclimate studies in Venezuela. The striking coherence between the eustatic curve and the amplitudes and absolute heights of successive reconstructed lowstands and highstands compelled us to tune our record to the eustatic curve in order to achieve a rough age estimate for our units

  4. Contaminants in American alligator eggs from Lake Apopka, Lake Griffin, and Lake Okeechobee, Florida

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Heinz, Gary H.; Percival, H. Franklin; Jennings, Michael L.

    1991-01-01

    Residues of organochlorine pesticides, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), and 16 elements were measured in American alligator (Alligator mississippiensis) eggs collected in 1984 from Lakes Apopka, Griffin, and Okeechobee in central and south Florida. Organochlorine pesticides were highest in eggs from Lake Apopka. None of the elements appeared to be present at harmful concentrations in eggs from any of the lakes. A larger sample of eggs was collected in 1985, but only from Lakes Griffin, a lake where eggs were relatively clean, and Apopka, where eggs were most contaminated. In 1985, hatching success of artificially incubated eggs was lower for Lake Apopka, and several organochlorine pesticides were higher than in eggs from Lake Griffin. However, within Lake Apopka, higher levels of pesticides in chemically analyzed eggs were not associated with reduced hatching success of the remaining eggs in the clutch. Therefore, it did not appear that any of the pesticides we measured were responsible for the reduced hatching success of Lake Apopka eggs.

  5. Sea-Level Rise and Subsidence: Implications for Flooding in New Orleans, Louisiana

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Burkett, V.R.; Zilkoski, D.B.; Hart, D.A.

    2003-01-01

    Global sea-level rise is projected to accelerate two-to four-fold during the next century, increasing storm surge and shoreline retreat along low-lying, unconsolidated coastal margins. The Mississippi River Deltaic Plain in southeastern Louisiana is particularly vulnerable to erosion and inundation due to the rapid deterioration of coastal barriers combined with relatively high rates of land subsidence. Land-surface altitude data collected in the leveed areas of the New Orleans metropolitan region during five survey epochs between 1951 and 1995 indicated mean annual subsidence of 5 millimeters per year. Preliminary results of other studies detecting the regional movement of the north-central Gulf Coast indicate that the rate may be as much as 1 centimeter per year. Considering the rate of subsidence and the mid-range estimate of sea-level rise during the next 100 years (480 millimeters), the areas of New Orleans and vicinity that are presently 1.5 to 3 meters below mean sea level will likely be 2.5 to 4.0 meters or more below mean sea level by 2100.

  6. Geomagnetic South Atlantic Anomaly and global sea level rise: A direct connection?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Santis, A.; Qamili, E.; Spada, G.; Gasperini, P.

    2012-01-01

    We highlight the existence of an intriguing and to date unreported relationship between the surface area of the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) of the geomagnetic field and the current trend in global sea level rise. These two geophysical variables have been growing coherently during the last three centuries, thus strongly suggesting a causal relationship supported by some statistical tests. The monotonic increase of the SAA surface area since 1600 may have been associated with an increased inflow of radiation energy through the inner Van Allen belt with a consequent warming of the Earth's atmosphere and finally global sea level rise. An alternative suggestive and original explanation is also offered, in which pressure changes at the core-mantle boundary cause surface deformations and relative sea level variations. Although we cannot establish a clear connection between SAA dynamics and global warming, the strong correlation between the former and global sea level supports the idea that global warming may be at least partly controlled by deep Earth processes triggering geomagnetic phenomena, such as the South Atlantic Anomaly, on a century time scale.

  7. Combined effects of projected sea level rise, storm surge, and peak river flows on water levels in the Skagit Floodplain

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hamman, Josheph J; Hamlet, Alan F.; Fuller, Roger; Grossman, Eric E.

    2016-01-01

    Current understanding of the combined effects of sea level rise (SLR), storm surge, and changes in river flooding on near-coastal environments is very limited. This project uses a suite of numerical models to examine the combined effects of projected future climate change on flooding in the Skagit floodplain and estuary. Statistically and dynamically downscaled global climate model scenarios from the ECHAM-5 GCM were used as the climate forcings. Unregulated daily river flows were simulated using the VIC hydrology model, and regulated river flows were simulated using the SkagitSim reservoir operations model. Daily tidal anomalies (TA) were calculated using a regression approach based on ENSO and atmospheric pressure forcing simulated by the WRF regional climate model. A 2-D hydrodynamic model was used to estimate water surface elevations in the Skagit floodplain using resampled hourly hydrographs keyed to regulated daily flood flows produced by the reservoir simulation model, and tide predictions adjusted for SLR and TA. Combining peak annual TA with projected sea level rise, the historical (1970–1999) 100-yr peak high water level is exceeded essentially every year by the 2050s. The combination of projected sea level rise and larger floods by the 2080s yields both increased flood inundation area (+ 74%), and increased average water depth (+ 25 cm) in the Skagit floodplain during a 100-year flood. Adding sea level rise to the historical FEMA 100-year flood resulted in a 35% increase in inundation area by the 2040's, compared to a 57% increase when both SLR and projected changes in river flow were combined.

  8. Storage Capacity and Water Quality of Lake Ngardok, Babeldaob Island, Republic of Palau, 1996-98

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Yeung, Chiu Wang; Wong, Michael F.

    1999-01-01

    A bathymetric survey conducted during March and April, 1996, determined the total storage capacity Lake Ngardok to be between 90 and 168 acre-feet. Elevation-surface area and elevation-capacity curves summarizing the current relations among elevation, surface area, and storage capacity were created from the bathymetric map. Rainfall and lake-elevation data collected from April 1996 to March 1998 indicated that lake levels correlated to rainfall values with lake elevation rising rapidly in response to heavy rainfall and then returning to normal levels within a few days. Mean lake elevation for the 22 month period of data was 59.5 feet which gives a mean storage capacity of 107 acre-feet and a mean surface area of 24.1 acre. A floating mat of reeds, which covered 58 percent of the lake surface area at the time of the bathymetric survey, makes true storage capacity difficult to estimate. Water-quality sampling during April 1996 and November 1997 indicated that no U.S. Environmental Protection Agency primary drinking-water standards were violated for analyzed organic and inorganic compounds and radionuclides. With suitable biological treatment, the lake water could be used for drinking-water purposes. Temperature and dissolved oxygen measurements indicated that Lake Ngardok is stratified. Given that air temperature on Palau exhibits little seasonal variation, it is likely that this pattern of stratification is persistent. As a result, complete mixing of the lake is probably rare. Near anaerobic conditions exist at the lake bottom. Low dissolved oxygen (3.2 milligrams per liter) measured at the outflow indicated that water flowing past the outflow was from the deep oxygen-depleted depths of the lake.

  9. Assessing water quality of the Chesapeake Bay by the impact of sea level rise and warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, P.; Linker, L.; Wang, H.; Bhatt, G.; Yactayo, G.; Hinson, K.; Tian, R.

    2017-08-01

    The influence of sea level rise and warming on circulation and water quality of the Chesapeake Bay under projected climate conditions in 2050 were estimated by computer simulation. Four estuarine circulation scenarios in the estuary were run using the same watershed load in 1991-2000 period. They are, 1) the Base Scenario, which represents the current climate condition, 2) a Sea Level Rise Scenario, 3) a Warming Scenario, and 4) a combined Sea Level Rise and Warming Scenario. With a 1.6-1.9°C increase in monthly air temperatures in the Warming Scenario, water temperature in the Bay is estimated to increase by 0.8-1°C. Summer average anoxic volume is estimated to increase 1.4 percent compared to the Base Scenario, because of an increase in algal blooms in the spring and summer, promotion of oxygen consumptive processes, and an increase of stratification. However, a 0.5-meter Sea Level Rise Scenario results in a 12 percent reduction of anoxic volume. This is mainly due to increased estuarine circulation that promotes oxygen-rich sea water intrusion in lower layers. The combined Sea Level Rise and Warming Scenario results in a 10.8 percent reduction of anoxic volume. Global warming increases precipitation and consequently increases nutrient loads from the watershed by approximately 5-7 percent. A scenario that used a 10 percent increase in watershed loads and current estuarine circulation patterns yielded a 19 percent increase in summer anoxic volume, while a scenario that used a 10 percent increase in watershed loads and modified estuarine circulation patterns by the aforementioned sea level rise and warming yielded a 6 percent increase in summer anoxic volume. Impacts on phytoplankton, sediments, and water clarity were also analysed.

  10. Groundwater reorganization in the Floridan aquifer following Holocene sea-level rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morrissey, Sheila K.; Clark, Jordan F.; Bennett, Michael; Richardson, Emily; Stute, Martin

    2010-10-01

    Sea-level fluctuations, particularly those associated with glacial-interglacial cycles, can have profound impacts on the flow and circulation of coastal groundwater: the water found at present in many coastal aquifers may have been recharged during the last glacial period, when sea level was over 100m lower than present, and thus is not in equilibrium with present recharge conditions. Here we show that the geochemistry of the groundwater found in the Floridan Aquifer System in south Florida is best explained by a reorganization of groundwater flow following the sea-level rise at the end of the Last Glacial Maximum approximately 18,000 years ago. We find that the geochemistry of the fresh water found in the upper aquifers at present is consistent with recharge from meteoric water during the last glacial period. The lower aquifer, however, consists of post-sea-level-rise salt water that is most similar to that of the Straits of Florida, though with some dilution from the residual fresh water from the last glacial period circulation. We therefore suggest that during the last glacial period, the entire Floridan Aquifer System was recharged with meteoric waters. After sea level rose, the increased hydraulic head reduced the velocity of the groundwater flow. This velocity reduction trapped the fresh water in the upper aquifers and initiated saltwater circulation in the lower aquifer.

  11. High-resolution tide projections reveal extinction threshold in response to sea-level rise.

    PubMed

    Field, Christopher R; Bayard, Trina S; Gjerdrum, Carina; Hill, Jason M; Meiman, Susan; Elphick, Chris S

    2017-05-01

    Sea-level rise will affect coastal species worldwide, but models that aim to predict these effects are typically based on simple measures of sea level that do not capture its inherent complexity, especially variation over timescales shorter than 1 year. Coastal species might be most affected, however, by floods that exceed a critical threshold. The frequency and duration of such floods may be more important to population dynamics than mean measures of sea level. In particular, the potential for changes in the frequency and duration of flooding events to result in nonlinear population responses or biological thresholds merits further research, but may require that models incorporate greater resolution in sea level than is typically used. We created population simulations for a threatened songbird, the saltmarsh sparrow (Ammodramus caudacutus), in a region where sea level is predictable with high accuracy and precision. We show that incorporating the timing of semidiurnal high tide events throughout the breeding season, including how this timing is affected by mean sea-level rise, predicts a reproductive threshold that is likely to cause a rapid demographic shift. This shift is likely to threaten the persistence of saltmarsh sparrows beyond 2060 and could cause extinction as soon as 2035. Neither extinction date nor the population trajectory was sensitive to the emissions scenarios underlying sea-level projections, as most of the population decline occurred before scenarios diverge. Our results suggest that the variation and complexity of climate-driven variables could be important for understanding the potential responses of coastal species to sea-level rise, especially for species that rely on coastal areas for reproduction. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Cities and Sea Level Rise: A Roadmap for Flood Hazard Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Horn, Diane; Cousins, Ann

    2016-04-01

    Coastal cities will face a range of increasingly severe challenges as sea level rises, and adaptation to future flood risk will require more than structural defences. Many cities will not be able to rely solely on engineering structures for protection and will need to develop a suite of policy responses to increase their resilience to impacts of rising sea level. The tools to promote flood risk adaptation are already within the capacity of most cities, with an assortment of policy tools available to address other land-use problems which can be refashioned and used to adapt to sea level rise. This study reviews approaches for urban adaptation through detailed analyses of case studies of cities which have developed flood adaptation strategies that combine structural defences with innovative approaches to living with flood risk. The aim of the overall project is to produce a 'roadmap' to guide practitioners through the process of analysing coastal flood risk in urban areas. Methodologies and tools to estimate vulnerability to coastal flooding, damages suffered, and the assessment of flood defences and adaptation measures are complemented with a discussion on the essential impact that local policy has on the treatment of coastal flooding and the constraints and opportunities that result from the specific country or locality characteristics in relation to economic, political, social and environmental priorities, which are likely to dictate the approach to coastal flooding and the actions proposed. Case studies of adaptation strategies used by Rotterdam, Bristol, Ho Chi Minh City and Norfolk, Virginia, are used to draw out a range of good practice elements that promote effective adaptation to sea level rise. These can be grouped into risk reduction, governance issues, and insurance, and can be used to provide examples of how other cities could adopt and implement flood adaptation strategies from a relatively limited starting position. Most cities will neither be able to

  13. Assessing Sea Level Rise Impacts on the Surficial Aquifer in the Kennedy Space Center Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiao, H.; Wang, D.; Hagen, S. C.; Medeiros, S. C.; Warnock, A. M.; Hall, C. R.

    2014-12-01

    Global sea level rise in the past century due to climate change has been seen at an average rate of approximately 1.7-2.2 mm per year, with an increasing rate over the next century. The increasing SLR rate poses a severe threat to the low-lying land surface and the shallow groundwater system in the Kennedy Space Center in Florida, resulting in saltwater intrusion and groundwater induced flooding. A three-dimensional groundwater flow and salinity transport model is implemented to investigate and evaluate the extent of floods due to rising water table as well as saltwater intrusion. The SEAWAT model is chosen to solve the variable-density groundwater flow and salinity transport governing equations and simulate the regional-scale spatial and temporal evolution of groundwater level and chloride concentration. The horizontal resolution of the model is 50 m, and the vertical domain includes both the Surficial Aquifer and the Floridan Aquifer. The numerical model is calibrated based on the observed hydraulic head and chloride concentration. The potential impacts of sea level rise on saltwater intrusion and groundwater induced flooding are assessed under various sea level rise scenarios. Based on the simulation results, the potential landward movement of saltwater and freshwater fringe is projected. The existing water supply wells are examined overlaid with the projected salinity distribution map. The projected Surficial Aquifer water tables are overlaid with data of high resolution land surface elevation, land use and land cover, and infrastructure to assess the potential impacts of sea level rise. This study provides useful tools for decision making on ecosystem management, water supply planning, and facility management.

  14. Coastal Hazards Maps: Actionable Information for Communities Facing Sea-Level Rise (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gibeaut, J. C.; Barraza, E.

    2010-12-01

    Barrier islands along the U.S. Gulf coast remain under increasing pressure from development. This development and redevelopment is occurring despite recent hurricanes, ongoing erosion, and sea-level rise. To lessen the impacts of these hazards, local governments need information in a form that is useful for informing the public, making policy, and enforcing development rules. We recently completed the Galveston Island Geohazards Map for the city of Galveston, Texas and are currently developing maps for the Mustang and South Padre Island communities. The maps show areas that vary in their susceptibility to, and function for, mitigating the effects of geological processes, including sea-level rise, land subsidence, erosion and storm-surge flooding and washover. The current wetlands, beaches and dunes are mapped as having the highest geohazard potential both in terms of their exposure to hazardous conditions and their mitigating effects of those hazards for the rest of the island. These existing “critical environments” are generally protected under existing regulations. Importantly, however, the mapping recognizes that sea-level rise and shoreline retreat are changing the island; therefore, 60-year model projections of the effects of these changes are incorporated into the map. The areas that we project will become wetlands, beaches and dunes in the next 60 years are not protected. These areas are the most difficult to deal with from a policy point of view, yet we must address what happens there if real progress is to be made in how we live with sea-level rise. The geohazards maps draw on decades of geological knowledge of how barrier islands behave and put it in a form that is intuitive to the public and directly useful to planners. Some of the “messages” in the map include: leave salt marshes alone and give them room to migrate inland as sea level rises; set back and move development away from the shoreline to provide space for beaches and protective dunes

  15. Watershed vs. within-lake drivers of nitrogen: phosphorus dynamics in shallow lakes.

    PubMed

    Ginger, Luke J; Zimmer, Kyle D; Herwig, Brian R; Hanson, Mark A; Hobbs, William O; Small, Gaston E; Cotner, James B

    2017-10-01

    Research on lake eutrophication often identifies variables affecting amounts of phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) in lakes, but understanding factors influencing N:P ratios is important given its influence on species composition and toxin production by cyanobacteria. We sampled 80 shallow lakes in Minnesota (USA) for three years to assess effects of watershed size, proportion of watershed as both row crop and natural area, fish biomass, and lake alternative state (turbid vs. clear) on total N : total P (TN : TP), ammonium, total dissolved phosphorus (TDP), and seston stoichiometry. We also examined N:P stoichiometry in 20 additional lakes that shifted states during the study. Last, we assessed the importance of denitrification by measuring denitrification rates in sediment cores from a subset of 34 lakes, and by measuring seston δ 15 N in four additional experimental lakes before and after they were experimentally manipulated from turbid to clear states. Results showed alternative state had the largest influence on overall N:P stoichiometry in these systems, as it had the strongest relationship with TN : TP, seston C:N:P, ammonium, and TDP. Turbid lakes had higher N at given levels of P than clear lakes, with TN and ammonium 2-fold and 1.4-fold higher in turbid lakes, respectively. In lakes that shifted states, TN was 3-fold higher in turbid lakes, while TP was only 2-fold higher, supporting the notion N is more responsive to state shifts than is P. Seston δ 15 N increased after lakes shifted to clear states, suggesting higher denitrification rates may be important for reducing N levels in clear states, and potential denitrification rates in sediment cores were among the highest recorded in the literature. Overall, our results indicate lake state was a primary driver of N:P dynamics in shallow lakes, and lakes in clear states had much lower N at a given level of P relative to turbid lakes, likely due to higher denitrification rates. Shallow lakes are often

  16. The Water Level Fall of Lake Megali Prespa (N Greece): an Indicator of Regional Water Stress Driven by Climate Change and Amplified by Water Extraction?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van der Schriek, Tim; Giannakopoulos, Christos

    2014-05-01

    The Mediterranean stands out globally due to its sensitivity to (future) climate change, with future projections predicting an increase in excessive drought events and declining rainfall. Regional freshwater ecosystems are particularly threatened: precipitation decreases, while extreme droughts increase and human impacts intensify (e.g. water extraction, drainage, pollution and dam-building). Many Mediterranean lake-wetland systems have shrunk or disappeared over the past two decades. Protecting the remaining systems is extremely important for supporting global biodiversity and for ensuring sustainable water availability. This protection should be based on a clear understanding of lake-wetland hydrological responses to natural and human-induced changes, which is currently lacking in many parts of the Mediterranean. The interconnected Prespa-Ohrid Lake system is a global hotspot of biodiversity and endemism. The unprecedented fall in water level (~8m) of Lake Megali Prespa threatens this system, but causes remain debated. Modelling suggests that the S Balkan will experience rainfall and runoff decreases of ~30% by 2050. However, projections revealing the potential impact of these changes on future lake level are unavailable as lake regime is not understood. A further drop in lake level may have serious consequences. The Prespa Lakes contribute ~25% of the total inflow into Lake Ohrid through underground karst channels; falling lake levels decrease this discharge. Lake Ohrid, in turn, feeds the Drim River. This entire catchment may therefore be affected by falling lake levels; its water resources are of great importance for Greece, Albania, FYROM and Montenegro (e.g. tourism, agriculture, hydro-energy, urban & industrial use). This new work proves that annual water level fluctuations of Lake Megali Prespa are predominantly related to precipitation during the first 7 months (Oct-Apr) of the hydrological year (Oct-Sep). Lake level is very sensitive to regional and

  17. A Mathematical Model of Melt Lake Development on an Ice Shelf

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buzzard, S. C.; Feltham, D. L.; Flocco, D.

    2018-02-01

    The accumulation of surface meltwater on ice shelves can lead to the formation of melt lakes. Melt lakes have been implicated in ice shelf collapse; Antarctica's Larsen B Ice Shelf was observed to have a large amount of surface melt lakes present preceding its collapse in 2002. Such collapse can affect ocean circulation and temperature, cause habitat loss and contribute to sea level rise through the acceleration of tributary glaciers. We present a mathematical model of a surface melt lake on an idealized ice shelf. The model incorporates a calculation of the ice shelf surface energy balance, heat transfer through the firn, the production and percolation of meltwater into the firn, the formation of ice lenses, and the development and refreezing of surface melt lakes. The model is applied to the Larsen C Ice Shelf, where melt lakes have been observed. This region has warmed several times the global average over the last century and the Larsen C firn layer could become saturated with meltwater by the end of the century. When forced with weather station data, our model produces surface melting, meltwater accumulation, and melt lake development consistent with observations. We examine the sensitivity of lake formation to uncertain parameters and provide evidence of the importance of processes such as lateral meltwater transport. We conclude that melt lakes impact surface melt and firn density and warrant inclusion in dynamic-thermodynamic models of ice shelf evolution within climate models, of which our model could form the basis for the thermodynamic component.

  18. Impacts and responses to sea-level rise: a global analysis of the SRES scenarios over the twenty-first century.

    PubMed

    Nicholls, Robert J; Tol, Richard S J

    2006-04-15

    Taking the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) climate and socio-economic scenarios (A1FI, A2, B1 and B2 'future worlds'), the potential impacts of sea-level rise through the twenty-first century are explored using complementary impact and economic analysis methods at the global scale. These methods have never been explored together previously. In all scenarios, the exposure and hence the impact potential due to increased flooding by sea-level rise increases significantly compared to the base year (1990). While mitigation reduces impacts, due to the lagged response of sea-level rise to atmospheric temperature rise, impacts cannot be avoided during the twenty-first century by this response alone. Cost-benefit analyses suggest that widespread protection will be an economically rational response to land loss due to sea-level rise in the four SRES futures that are considered. The most vulnerable future worlds to sea-level rise appear to be the A2 and B2 scenarios, which primarily reflects differences in the socio-economic situation (coastal population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and GDP/capita), rather than the magnitude of sea-level rise. Small islands and deltaic settings stand out as being more vulnerable as shown in many earlier analyses. Collectively, these results suggest that human societies will have more choice in how they respond to sea-level rise than is often assumed. However, this conclusion needs to be tempered by recognition that we still do not understand these choices and significant impacts remain possible. Future worlds which experience larger rises in sea-level than considered here (above 35 cm), more extreme events, a reactive rather than proactive approach to adaptation, and where GDP growth is slower or more unequal than in the SRES futures remain a concern. There is considerable scope for further research to better understand these diverse issues.

  19. GIS analysis of effects of future Baltic sea level rise on the island of Gotland, Sweden

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ebert, Karin; Ekstedt, Karin; Jarsjö, Jerker

    2016-07-01

    Future sea level rise as a consequence of global warming will affect the world's coastal regions. Even though the pace of sea level rise is not clear, the consequences will be severe and global. Commonly the effects of future sea level rise are investigated for relatively vulnerable development countries; however, a whole range of varying regions needs to be considered in order to improve the understanding of global consequences. In this paper we investigate consequences of future sea level rise along the coast of the Baltic Sea island of Gotland, Sweden, with the aim to fill knowledge gaps regarding comparatively well-suited areas in developed countries. We study both the quantity of the loss of features of infrastructure, cultural, and natural value in the case of a 2 m sea level rise of the Baltic Sea and the effects of climate change on seawater intrusion in coastal aquifers, which indirectly cause saltwater intrusion in wells. We conduct a multi-criteria risk analysis by using lidar data on land elevation and GIS-vulnerability mapping, which gives the application of distance and elevation parameters formerly unimaginable precision. We find that in case of a 2 m sea level rise, 3 % of the land area of Gotland, corresponding to 99 km2, will be inundated. The features most strongly affected are items of touristic or nature value, including camping places, shore meadows, sea stack areas, and endangered plants and species habitats. In total, 231 out of 7354 wells will be directly inundated, and the number of wells in the high-risk zone for saltwater intrusion in wells will increase considerably. Some valuable features will be irreversibly lost due to, for example, inundation of sea stacks and the passing of tipping points for seawater intrusion into coastal aquifers; others might simply be moved further inland, but this requires considerable economic means and prioritization. With nature tourism being one of the main income sources of Gotland, monitoring and

  20. A Mediterranean coastal database for assessing the impacts of sea-level rise and associated hazards

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wolff, Claudia; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.; Muis, Sanne; Lincke, Daniel; Satta, Alessio; Lionello, Piero; Jimenez, Jose A.; Conte, Dario; Hinkel, Jochen

    2018-03-01

    We have developed a new coastal database for the Mediterranean basin that is intended for coastal impact and adaptation assessment to sea-level rise and associated hazards on a regional scale. The data structure of the database relies on a linear representation of the coast with associated spatial assessment units. Using information on coastal morphology, human settlements and administrative boundaries, we have divided the Mediterranean coast into 13 900 coastal assessment units. To these units we have spatially attributed 160 parameters on the characteristics of the natural and socio-economic subsystems, such as extreme sea levels, vertical land movement and number of people exposed to sea-level rise and extreme sea levels. The database contains information on current conditions and on plausible future changes that are essential drivers for future impacts, such as sea-level rise rates and socio-economic development. Besides its intended use in risk and impact assessment, we anticipate that the Mediterranean Coastal Database (MCD) constitutes a useful source of information for a wide range of coastal applications.

  1. A Mediterranean coastal database for assessing the impacts of sea-level rise and associated hazards

    PubMed Central

    Wolff, Claudia; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.; Muis, Sanne; Lincke, Daniel; Satta, Alessio; Lionello, Piero; Jimenez, Jose A.; Conte, Dario; Hinkel, Jochen

    2018-01-01

    We have developed a new coastal database for the Mediterranean basin that is intended for coastal impact and adaptation assessment to sea-level rise and associated hazards on a regional scale. The data structure of the database relies on a linear representation of the coast with associated spatial assessment units. Using information on coastal morphology, human settlements and administrative boundaries, we have divided the Mediterranean coast into 13 900 coastal assessment units. To these units we have spatially attributed 160 parameters on the characteristics of the natural and socio-economic subsystems, such as extreme sea levels, vertical land movement and number of people exposed to sea-level rise and extreme sea levels. The database contains information on current conditions and on plausible future changes that are essential drivers for future impacts, such as sea-level rise rates and socio-economic development. Besides its intended use in risk and impact assessment, we anticipate that the Mediterranean Coastal Database (MCD) constitutes a useful source of information for a wide range of coastal applications. PMID:29583140

  2. Modeling barrier island response to sea-level rise in the Outer Banks, North Carolina

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Moore, Laura J.; List, Jeffrey H.; Williams, S. Jeffress; Stolper, David

    2007-01-01

    An 8500-year Holocene simulation developed in GEOMBEST provides a possible scenario to explain the evolution of barrier coast between Rodanthe and Cape Hatteras, NC. Sensitivity analyses suggest that in the Outer Banks, the rate of sea-level rise is the most important factor in determining how barrier islands evolve. The Holocene simulation provides a basis for future simulations, which suggest that if sea level rises up to 0.88 m by AD 2100, as predicted by the highest estimates of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the barrier in the study area may migrate on the order of 2.5 times more rapidly than at present. If sea level rises beyond IPCC predictions to reach 1.4–1.9 m above modern sea level by AD 2100, model results suggest that barrier islands in the Outer Banks may become vulnerable to threshold collapse, disintegrating during storm events, by the end of the next century. Consistent with sensitivity analyses, additional simulations indicate that anthropogenic activities, such as increasing the rate of sediment supply through beach nourishment, will only slightly affect barrier island migration rates and barrier island vulnerability to collapse.

  3. Wet trend continues for lakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Katzoff, Judith A.

    About 20% of the United States, including the regions of the Great Lakes and the Great Salt Lake, has entered a fourth year of record and near-record streamflow and lake levels, according to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). From June 3 until June 8, 1986, the Great Salt Lake stood at 1283.77 m above sea level, 0.076 m above the previous record, which was set in 1873. (Records have been kept for the lake since 1847.) On June 8, a dike south of the lake gave way during a windstorm, causing flooding of evaporation ponds used for mineral recovery.As a result of the breach, the lake's level dropped to 1283.65 m above sea level by June 10 but rose to 1283.68 m by June 20. The latest official reading, made on June 30, showed that the lake's level had dropped to 1283.63 m above sea level. According to Tom Ross, chief of the Current Water Conditions Group at the USGS National Center in Reston, Va., this drop represents “a normal seasonal decline brought on by evaporation.”

  4. Incorporating Tsunami Projections to Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessments -A Case Study for Midway Atoll-

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gica, E.; Reynolds, M.

    2012-12-01

    Recent global models predict a rise of approximately one meter in global sea level by 2100, with potentially larger increases in areas of the Pacific Ocean. If current climate change trends continue, low-lying islands across the globe may become inundated over the next century, placing island biodiversity at risk. Adding to the risk of inundation due to sea level rise is the occurrence of cyclones and tsunamis. This combined trend will affect the low-lying islands of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands and it is therefore important to assess its impact since these islands are critical habitats to many endangered endemic species and support the largest tropical seabird rookery in the world. The 11 March 2011 Tohoku (Mw=8.8) earthquake-tsunami affected the habitat of many endangered endemic species in Midway Atoll National Wildlife Refuge because all three islands (Sand, Eastern and Spit) were inundated by tsunami waves. At present sea level, some tsunamis from certain source regions would not affect Midway Atoll. For example, the previous earthquake-tsunamis such as the 15 November 2006 Kuril (Mw=8.1) and 13 February 2007 Kuril (Mw=7.9) were not significant enough to affect Midway Atoll. But at higher sea levels, tsunamis with similar characteristics could pose a threat to such terrestrial habitats and wildlife. To visualize projected impacts to vegetation composition, wildlife habitat, and wildlife populations, we explored and analyzed inundation vulnerability for a range of possible sea level rise and tsunami scenarios at Midway Atoll National Wildlife Refuge. Studying the combined threat of tsunamis and sea level rise can provide more accurate and comprehensive assessments of the vulnerability of the unique natural resources on low-lying islands. A passive sea level rise model was used to determine how much inundation will occur at different sea level rise values for the three islands of Midway Atoll and each scenario was coupled with NOAA Center for Tsunami

  5. Late Pleistocene and Early Holocene lake-level fluctuations in the Lahontan Basin, Nevada: Implications for the distribution of archaeological sites

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Adams, K.D.; Goebel, Thomas; Graf, K.; Smith, G.M.; Camp, A.J.; Briggs, R.W.; Rhode, D.

    2008-01-01

    The Great Basin of the western U.S. contains a rich record of late Pleistocene and Holocene lake-level fluctuations as well as an extensive record of human occupation during the same time frame. We compare spatial-temporal relationships between these records in the Lahontan basin to consider whether lake-level fluctuations across the Pleistocene-Holocene transition controlled distribution of archaeological sites. We use the reasonably well-dated archaeological record from caves and rockshelters as well as results from new pedestrian surveys to investigate this problem. Although lake levels probably reached maximum elevations of about 1230-1235 m in the different subbasins of Lahontan during the Younger Dryas (YD) period, the duration that the lakes occupied the highest levels was brief Paleoindian and early Archaic archaeological sites are concentrated on somewhat lower and slightly younger shorelines (???1220-1225 in) that also date from the Younger Dryas period. This study suggests that Paleoindians often concentrated their activities adjacent to large lakes and wetland resources soon after they first entered the Great Basin. ?? 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  6. Characterizing uncertain sea-level rise projections to support investment decisions.

    PubMed

    Sriver, Ryan L; Lempert, Robert J; Wikman-Svahn, Per; Keller, Klaus

    2018-01-01

    Many institutions worldwide are considering how to include uncertainty about future changes in sea-levels and storm surges into their investment decisions regarding large capital infrastructures. Here we examine how to characterize deeply uncertain climate change projections to support such decisions using Robust Decision Making analysis. We address questions regarding how to confront the potential for future changes in low probability but large impact flooding events due to changes in sea-levels and storm surges. Such extreme events can affect investments in infrastructure but have proved difficult to consider in such decisions because of the deep uncertainty surrounding them. This study utilizes Robust Decision Making methods to address two questions applied to investment decisions at the Port of Los Angeles: (1) Under what future conditions would a Port of Los Angeles decision to harden its facilities against extreme flood scenarios at the next upgrade pass a cost-benefit test, and (2) Do sea-level rise projections and other information suggest such conditions are sufficiently likely to justify such an investment? We also compare and contrast the Robust Decision Making methods with a full probabilistic analysis. These two analysis frameworks result in similar investment recommendations for different idealized future sea-level projections, but provide different information to decision makers and envision different types of engagement with stakeholders. In particular, the full probabilistic analysis begins by aggregating the best scientific information into a single set of joint probability distributions, while the Robust Decision Making analysis identifies scenarios where a decision to invest in near-term response to extreme sea-level rise passes a cost-benefit test, and then assembles scientific information of differing levels of confidence to help decision makers judge whether or not these scenarios are sufficiently likely to justify making such investments

  7. Ecological impacts of winter water level drawdowns on lake littoral zones: A review

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Roy, Allison

    2017-01-01

    Freshwater littoral zones harbor diverse ecological communities and serve numerous ecosystem functions that are controlled, in part, by natural water level fluctuations. However, human alteration of lake hydrologic regimes beyond natural fluctuations threaten littoral zone ecological integrity. One type of hydrologic alteration in lakes is winter water level drawdowns, which are frequently employed for hydropower, flood control, and macrophyte control, among other purposes. Here, we synthesize the abiotic and biotic responses to annual and novel winter water level drawdowns in littoral zones of lakes and reservoirs. The dewatering, freezing, and increased erosion of exposed lakebeds drive changes in the littoral zone. Shoreline-specific physicochemical conditions such as littoral slope and shoreline exposure further induce modifications. Loss of fine sediment decreases nutrient availability over time, but desiccation may promote a temporary nutrient pulse upon re-inundation. Annual winter drawdowns can decrease taxonomic richness of macrophytes and benthic invertebrates and shift assemblage composition to favor taxa with r-selected life history strategies and with functional traits resistant to direct and indirect drawdown effects. Fish assemblages, though less directly affected by winter drawdowns (except where there is critically low dissolved oxygen), experience negative effects via indirect pathways like decreased food resources and spawning habitat. We identify eight general research gaps to guide future research that could improve our understanding about the complex effects of winter drawdowns on littoral zone ecology.

  8. A comparison of mercury levels in feathers and eggs of osprey (Pandion haliaetus) in the North American Great Lakes.

    PubMed

    Hughes, K D; Ewins, P J; Clark, K E

    1997-11-01

    Osprey (Pandion haliaetus) eggs and chick feathers were collected for mercury analysis from nests at four Great Lakes study areas in Ontario (three "naturally formed" lakes in southern Ontario and one reservoir in northern Ontario) and two New Jersey study areas in 1991-1994. Adult osprey feathers were sampled from three Great Lakes study areas in 1991. Feathers sampled from chicks (approximately 28-35 days old) appear to be better indicators of local contaminant conditions since spatial patterns of mercury in known prey, yellow perch (Perca flavescens), also collected in these areas, were more similar to chick feathers than to eggs. Mercury levels were less variable in chick feathers than in eggs. Estimates of biomagnification factors using prey of known size at these areas were also less variable in feathers than in eggs. At naturally formed lakes, no significant correlation in mercury levels between eggs and chick feathers from the same nest was apparent, suggesting that the source of mercury contamination was not the same in these two tissues: mercury levels in eggs reflect mercury acquired on the breeding grounds, wintering grounds, and migratory route; mercury levels in chick feathers reflect local dietary conditions on the breeding grounds. Mercury levels in both osprey eggs and chick feathers were higher at the Ogoki Reservoir than at naturally formed lakes. Adult osprey feathers had higher mercury concentrations than chick feathers. Mercury levels in osprey eggs, chick feathers, and adult feathers did not approach levels associated with toxic reproductive effects.

  9. Assessing tidal marsh vulnerability to sea-level rise in the Skagit Delta

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hood, W. Gregory; Grossman, Eric E.; Curt Veldhuisen,

    2016-01-01

    Historical aerial photographs, from 1937 to the present, show Skagit Delta tidal marshes prograding into Skagit Bay for most of the record, but the progradation rates have been steadily declining and the marshes have begun to erode in recent decades despite the large suspended sediment load provided by the Skagit River. In an area of the delta isolated from direct riverine sediment supply by anthropogenic blockage of historical distributaries, 0.5-m tall marsh cliffs along with concave marsh profiles indicate wave erosion is contributing to marsh retreat. This is further supported by a “natural experiment” provided by rocky outcrops that shelter high marsh in their lee, while being bounded by 0.5-m lower eroded marsh to windward and on either side. Coastal wetlands with high sediment supply are thought to be resilient to sea level rise, but the case of the Skagit Delta shows this is not necessarily true. A combination of sea level rise and wave-generated erosion may overwhelm sediment supply. Additionally, anthropogenic obstruction of historical distributaries and levee construction along the remaining distributaries likely increase the jet momentum of river discharge, forcing much suspended sediment to bypass the tidal marshes and be exported from Skagit Bay. Adaptive response to the threat of climate change related sea level rise and increased wave frequency or intensity should consider the efficacy of restoring historical distributaries and managed retreat of constrictive river levees to maximize sediment delivery to delta marshes.

  10. Evaporation from a temperate closed-basin lake and its impact on present, past, and future water level

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Lakes provide enormous economic, recreational, and aesthetic benefits to citizens. These ecosystem services may be adversely impacted by climate change. In the Twin Cities Metropolitan Area of Minnesota, USA, many lakes have been at historic low levels and water augmentation strategies have been pro...

  11. Rhode Island Salt Marshes: Elevation Capital and Resilience to Sea Level Rise

    EPA Science Inventory

    Tidal salt marsh is especially sensitive to deterioration due to the effects of accelerated sea level rise when combined with other anthropogenically linked stressors, including crab herbivory, changes in tidal hydrology, nutrient loading, dam construction, changes in temperature...

  12. High level of intergenera gene exchange shapes the evolution of haloarchaea in an isolated Antarctic lake.

    PubMed

    DeMaere, Matthew Z; Williams, Timothy J; Allen, Michelle A; Brown, Mark V; Gibson, John A E; Rich, John; Lauro, Federico M; Dyall-Smith, Michael; Davenport, Karen W; Woyke, Tanja; Kyrpides, Nikos C; Tringe, Susannah G; Cavicchioli, Ricardo

    2013-10-15

    Deep Lake in Antarctica is a globally isolated, hypersaline system that remains liquid at temperatures down to -20 °C. By analyzing metagenome data and genomes of four isolates we assessed genome variation and patterns of gene exchange to learn how the lake community evolved. The lake is completely and uniformly dominated by haloarchaea, comprising a hierarchically structured, low-complexity community that differs greatly to temperate and tropical hypersaline environments. The four Deep Lake isolates represent distinct genera (∼85% 16S rRNA gene similarity and ∼73% genome average nucleotide identity) with genomic characteristics indicative of niche adaptation, and collectively account for ∼72% of the cellular community. Network analysis revealed a remarkable level of intergenera gene exchange, including the sharing of long contiguous regions (up to 35 kb) of high identity (∼100%). Although the genomes of closely related Halobacterium, Haloquadratum, and Haloarcula (>90% average nucleotide identity) shared regions of high identity between species or strains, the four Deep Lake isolates were the only distantly related haloarchaea to share long high-identity regions. Moreover, the Deep Lake high-identity regions did not match to any other hypersaline environment metagenome data. The most abundant species, tADL, appears to play a central role in the exchange of insertion sequences, but not the exchange of high-identity regions. The genomic characteristics of the four haloarchaea are consistent with a lake ecosystem that sustains a high level of intergenera gene exchange while selecting for ecotypes that maintain sympatric speciation. The peculiarities of this polar system restrict which species can grow and provide a tempo and mode for accentuating gene exchange.

  13. Rapid sea level rise in the aftermath of a Neoproterozoic snowball Earth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Myrow, P. M.; Lamb, M. P.; Ewing, R. C.

    2018-05-01

    Earth’s most severe climate changes occurred during global-scale “snowball Earth” glaciations, which profoundly altered the planet’s atmosphere, oceans, and biosphere. Extreme rates of glacioeustatic sea level rise are predicted by the snowball Earth hypothesis, but supporting geologic evidence has been lacking. We use paleohydraulic analysis of wave ripples and tidal laminae in the Elatina Formation, Australia—deposited after the Marinoan glaciation ~635 million years ago—to show that water depths of 9 to 16 meters remained nearly constant for ~100 years throughout 27 meters of sediment accumulation. This accumulation rate was too great to have been accommodated by subsidence and instead indicates an extraordinarily rapid rate of sea level rise (0.2 to 0.27 meters per year). Our results substantiate a fundamental prediction of snowball Earth models of rapid deglaciation during the early transition to a supergreenhouse climate.

  14. Tidal Marshes across a Chesapeake Bay Subestuary Are Not Keeping up with Sea-Level Rise

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Beckett, Leah H.; Baldwin, Andrew H.; Kearney, Michael S.

    Sea-level rise is a major factor in wetland loss worldwide, and inmuch of Chesapeake Bay (USA) the rate of sea-level rise is higher than the current global rate of 3.2 mmyr -1 due to regional subsidence.Marshes along estuarine salinity gradients differ in vegetation composition, productivity, decomposition pathways, and sediment dynamics, andmay exhibit different responses to sea-level rise. Coastal marshes persist by building vertically at rates at or exceeding regional sea-level rise. In one of the first studies to examine elevation dynamics across an estuarine salinity gradient, we installed 15 surface elevation tables (SET) and accretion marker-horizon plots (MH) in tidalmore » freshwater, oligohaline, and brackish marshes across a Chesapeake Bay subestuary. Over the course of four years, wetlands across the subestuary decreased 1.8 ± 2.7 mmyr -1 in elevation on average, at least 5 mmyr -1 below that needed to keep pace with global sea-level rise. Elevation change rates did not significantly differ among themarshes studied, and ranged from-9.8 ± 6.9 to 4.5 ± 4.3 mmyr -1. Surface accretion of depositedmineral and organic matter was uniformly high across the estuary (~9–15 mmyr -1), indicating that elevation loss was not due to lack of accretionary input. Position in the estuary and associated salinity regime were not related to elevation change or surface matter accretion. In conclusion, previous studies have focused on surface elevation change inmarshes of uniformsalinity (e.g., salt marshes); however, our findings highlight the need for elevation studies inmarshes of all salinity regimes and different geomorphic positions, and warn that brackish, oligohaline, and freshwater tidal wetlands may be at similarly high risk of submergence in some estuaries.« less

  15. Tidal Marshes across a Chesapeake Bay Subestuary Are Not Keeping up with Sea-Level Rise

    PubMed Central

    Beckett, Leah H.; Baldwin, Andrew H.; Kearney, Michael S.

    2016-01-01

    Sea-level rise is a major factor in wetland loss worldwide, and in much of Chesapeake Bay (USA) the rate of sea-level rise is higher than the current global rate of 3.2 mm yr-1 due to regional subsidence. Marshes along estuarine salinity gradients differ in vegetation composition, productivity, decomposition pathways, and sediment dynamics, and may exhibit different responses to sea-level rise. Coastal marshes persist by building vertically at rates at or exceeding regional sea-level rise. In one of the first studies to examine elevation dynamics across an estuarine salinity gradient, we installed 15 surface elevation tables (SET) and accretion marker-horizon plots (MH) in tidal freshwater, oligohaline, and brackish marshes across a Chesapeake Bay subestuary. Over the course of four years, wetlands across the subestuary decreased 1.8 ± 2.7 mm yr-1 in elevation on average, at least 5 mm yr-1 below that needed to keep pace with global sea-level rise. Elevation change rates did not significantly differ among the marshes studied, and ranged from -9.8 ± 6.9 to 4.5 ± 4.3 mm yr-1. Surface accretion of deposited mineral and organic matter was uniformly high across the estuary (~9–15 mm yr-1), indicating that elevation loss was not due to lack of accretionary input. Position in the estuary and associated salinity regime were not related to elevation change or surface matter accretion. Previous studies have focused on surface elevation change in marshes of uniform salinity (e.g., salt marshes); however, our findings highlight the need for elevation studies in marshes of all salinity regimes and different geomorphic positions, and warn that brackish, oligohaline, and freshwater tidal wetlands may be at similarly high risk of submergence in some estuaries. PMID:27467784

  16. A policy hackathon for analysing impacts and solutions up to 20 metres sea-level rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Bouwer, Laurens; Kwadijk, Jaap

    2017-04-01

    We organised a policy hackathon in order to quantify the impacts accelerated and high-end sea-level rise up to 20 metres on the coast of the Netherlands, and develop possible solutions. This was done during one day, with 20 experts that had a wide variety of disciplines, including hydrology, geology, coastal engineering, economics, and public policy. During the process the problem was divided up into several sub-sets of issues that were analysed and solved within small teams of between 4 to 8 people. Both a top-down impact analysis and bottom-up vulnerability analysis was done by answering the questions: What is the impact of sea level rise of x meter?; and How much sea level rise can be accommodated with before transformative actions are needed? Next, adaptation tipping points were identified that describe conditions under which the coastal system starts to perform unacceptably. Reasons for an adaptation tipping point can be technical (technically not possible), economic (cost-benefits are negative), or resources (available space, sand, energy production, financial). The results are presented in a summary document, and through an infographic displaying different adaptation tipping points and milestones that occur when the sea level rises up to 20 m. No technical limitations were found for adaptation, but many important decisions need to be taken. Although accelerated sea level rise seems far away it can have important consequences for short-term decisions that are required for transformative actions. Such extensive actions require more time for implementation. Also, other action may become ineffective before their design life. This hackathon exercise shows that it is possible to map within a short time frame the issues at hand, as well as potentially effective solutions. This can be replicated for other problems, and can be useful for several decision-makers that require quick but in-depth analysis of their long-term planning problems.

  17. Tidal Marshes across a Chesapeake Bay Subestuary Are Not Keeping up with Sea-Level Rise

    DOE PAGES

    Beckett, Leah H.; Baldwin, Andrew H.; Kearney, Michael S.; ...

    2016-07-28

    Sea-level rise is a major factor in wetland loss worldwide, and inmuch of Chesapeake Bay (USA) the rate of sea-level rise is higher than the current global rate of 3.2 mmyr -1 due to regional subsidence.Marshes along estuarine salinity gradients differ in vegetation composition, productivity, decomposition pathways, and sediment dynamics, andmay exhibit different responses to sea-level rise. Coastal marshes persist by building vertically at rates at or exceeding regional sea-level rise. In one of the first studies to examine elevation dynamics across an estuarine salinity gradient, we installed 15 surface elevation tables (SET) and accretion marker-horizon plots (MH) in tidalmore » freshwater, oligohaline, and brackish marshes across a Chesapeake Bay subestuary. Over the course of four years, wetlands across the subestuary decreased 1.8 ± 2.7 mmyr -1 in elevation on average, at least 5 mmyr -1 below that needed to keep pace with global sea-level rise. Elevation change rates did not significantly differ among themarshes studied, and ranged from-9.8 ± 6.9 to 4.5 ± 4.3 mmyr -1. Surface accretion of depositedmineral and organic matter was uniformly high across the estuary (~9–15 mmyr -1), indicating that elevation loss was not due to lack of accretionary input. Position in the estuary and associated salinity regime were not related to elevation change or surface matter accretion. In conclusion, previous studies have focused on surface elevation change inmarshes of uniformsalinity (e.g., salt marshes); however, our findings highlight the need for elevation studies inmarshes of all salinity regimes and different geomorphic positions, and warn that brackish, oligohaline, and freshwater tidal wetlands may be at similarly high risk of submergence in some estuaries.« less

  18. Microplastic pollution in lakes and lake shoreline sediments - A case study on Lake Bolsena and Lake Chiusi (central Italy).

    PubMed

    Fischer, Elke Kerstin; Paglialonga, Lisa; Czech, Elisa; Tamminga, Matthias

    2016-06-01

    Rivers and effluents have been identified as major pathways for microplastics of terrestrial sources. Moreover, lakes of different dimensions and even in remote locations contain microplastics in striking abundances. This study investigates concentrations of microplastic particles at two lakes in central Italy (Lake Bolsena, Lake Chiusi). A total number of six Manta Trawls have been carried out, two of them one day after heavy winds occurred on Lake Bolsena showing effects on particle distribution of fragments and fibers of varying size categories. Additionally, 36 sediment samples from lakeshores were analyzed for microplastic content. In the surface waters 2.68 to 3.36 particles/m(3) (Lake Chiusi) and 0.82 to 4.42 particles/m(3) (Lake Bolsena) were detected, respectively. Main differences between the lakes are attributed to lake characteristics such as surface and catchment area, depth and the presence of local wind patterns and tide range at Lake Bolsena. An event of heavy winds and moderate rainfall prior to one sampling led to an increase of concentrations at Lake Bolsena which is most probable related to lateral land-based and sewage effluent inputs. The abundances of microplastic particles in sediments vary from mean values of 112 (Lake Bolsena) to 234 particles/kg dry weight (Lake Chiusi). Lake Chiusi results reveal elevated fiber concentrations compared to those of Lake Bolsena what might be a result of higher organic content and a shift in grain size distribution towards the silt and clay fraction at the shallow and highly eutrophic Lake Chiusi. The distribution of particles along different beach levels revealed no significant differences. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Sea-level rise and its possible impacts given a 'beyond 4°C world' in the twenty-first century.

    PubMed

    Nicholls, Robert J; Marinova, Natasha; Lowe, Jason A; Brown, Sally; Vellinga, Pier; de Gusmão, Diogo; Hinkel, Jochen; Tol, Richard S J

    2011-01-13

    The range of future climate-induced sea-level rise remains highly uncertain with continued concern that large increases in the twenty-first century cannot be ruled out. The biggest source of uncertainty is the response of the large ice sheets of Greenland and west Antarctica. Based on our analysis, a pragmatic estimate of sea-level rise by 2100, for a temperature rise of 4°C or more over the same time frame, is between 0.5 m and 2 m--the probability of rises at the high end is judged to be very low, but of unquantifiable probability. However, if realized, an indicative analysis shows that the impact potential is severe, with the real risk of the forced displacement of up to 187 million people over the century (up to 2.4% of global population). This is potentially avoidable by widespread upgrade of protection, albeit rather costly with up to 0.02 per cent of global domestic product needed, and much higher in certain nations. The likelihood of protection being successfully implemented varies between regions, and is lowest in small islands, Africa and parts of Asia, and hence these regions are the most likely to see coastal abandonment. To respond to these challenges, a multi-track approach is required, which would also be appropriate if a temperature rise of less than 4°C was expected. Firstly, we should monitor sea level to detect any significant accelerations in the rate of rise in a timely manner. Secondly, we need to improve our understanding of the climate-induced processes that could contribute to rapid sea-level rise, especially the role of the two major ice sheets, to produce better models that quantify the likely future rise more precisely. Finally, responses need to be carefully considered via a combination of climate mitigation to reduce the rise and adaptation for the residual rise in sea level. In particular, long-term strategic adaptation plans for the full range of possible sea-level rise (and other change) need to be widely developed.

  20. Tidal marsh plant responses to elevated CO2 , nitrogen fertilization, and sea level rise.

    PubMed

    Adam Langley, J; Mozdzer, Thomas J; Shepard, Katherine A; Hagerty, Shannon B; Patrick Megonigal, J

    2013-05-01

    Elevated CO2 and nitrogen (N) addition directly affect plant productivity and the mechanisms that allow tidal marshes to maintain a constant elevation relative to sea level, but it remains unknown how these global change drivers modify marsh plant response to sea level rise. Here we manipulated factorial combinations of CO2 concentration (two levels), N availability (two levels) and relative sea level (six levels) using in situ mesocosms containing a tidal marsh community composed of a sedge, Schoenoplectus americanus, and a grass, Spartina patens. Our objective is to determine, if elevated CO2 and N alter the growth and persistence of these plants in coastal ecosystems facing rising sea levels. After two growing seasons, we found that N addition enhanced plant growth particularly at sea levels where plants were most stressed by flooding (114% stimulation in the + 10 cm treatment), and N effects were generally larger in combination with elevated CO2 (288% stimulation). N fertilization shifted the optimal productivity of S. patens to a higher sea level, but did not confer S. patens an enhanced ability to tolerate sea level rise. S. americanus responded strongly to N only in the higher sea level treatments that excluded S. patens. Interestingly, addition of N, which has been suggested to accelerate marsh loss, may afford some marsh plants, such as the widespread sedge, S. americanus, the enhanced ability to tolerate inundation. However, if chronic N pollution reduces the availability of propagules of S. americanus or other flood-tolerant species on the landscape scale, this shift in species dominance could render tidal marshes more susceptible to marsh collapse. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.