Decision Making Methodology to Mitigate Damage From Glacial Lake Outburst Floods From Imja Lake in Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKinney, D. C.; Cuellar, A. D.

2015-12-01

Climate change has accelerated glacial retreat in high altitude glaciated regions of Nepal leading to the growth and formation of glacier lakes. Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF) are sudden events triggered by an earthquake, moraine failure or other shock that causes a sudden outflow of water. These floods are catastrophic because of their sudden onset, the difficulty predicting them, and enormous quantity of water and debris rapidly flooding downstream areas. Imja Lake in the Himalaya of Nepal has experienced accelerated growth since it first appeared in the 1960s. Communities threatened by a flood from Imja Lake have advocated for projects to adapt to the increasing threat of a GLOF. Nonetheless, discussions surrounding projects for Imja have not included a rigorous analysis of the potential consequences of a flood, probability of an event, or costs of mitigation projects in part because this information is unknown or uncertain. This work presents a demonstration of a decision making methodology developed to rationally analyze the risks posed by Imja Lake and the various adaptation projects proposed using available information. In this work the authors use decision analysis, data envelopement analysis (DEA), and sensitivity analysis to assess proposed adaptation measures that would mitigate damage in downstream communities from a GLOF. We use an existing hydrodynamic model of the at-risk area to determine how adaptation projects will affect downstream flooding and estimate fatalities using an empirical method developed for dam failures. The DEA methodology allows us to estimate the value of a statistical life implied by each project given the cost of the project and number of lives saved to determine which project is the most efficient. In contrast the decision analysis methodology requires fatalities to be assigned a cost but allows the inclusion of uncertainty in the decision making process. We compare the output of these two methodologies and determine the

The dynamic response of Kennicott Glacier, Alaska, USA, to the Hidden Creek Lake outburst flood

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anderson, R. Scott; Walder, J.S.; Anderson, S.P.; Trabant, D.C.; Fountain, A.G.

2005-01-01

Glacier sliding is commonly linked with elevated water pressure at the glacier bed. Ice surface motion during a 3 week period encompassing an outburst of ice-dammed Hidden Creek Lake (HCL) at Kennicott Glacier, Alaska, USA, showed enhanced sliding during the flood. Two stakes, 1.2 km from HCL, revealed increased speed in two episodes, both associated with uplift of the ice surface relative to the trajectory of bed-parallel motion. Uplift of the surface began 12 days before the flood, initially stabilizing at a value of 0.25 m. Two days after lake drainage began, further uplift (reaching 0.4 m) occurred while surface speed peaked at 1.2 m d-1. Maximum surface uplift coincided with peak discharge from HCL, high water level in a down-glacier ice-marginal basin, and low solute concentrations in the Kennicott River. Each of these records is consistent with high subglacial water pressure. We interpret the ice surface motion as arising from sliding up backs of bumps on the bed, which enlarges cavities and produces bed separation. The outburst increased water pressure over a broad region, promoting sliding, inhibiting cavity closure, and blocking drainage of solute-rich water from the distributed system. Pressure drop upon termination of the outburst drained water from and depressurized the distributed system, reducing sliding speeds. Expanded cavities then collapsed with a 1 day time-scale set by the local ice thickness.

Glacial lake outburst floods and fluvial erosion in the Himalaya - insights from the 2016 Bhote Koshi GLOF

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, K. L.; Gimbert, F.; Andermann, C.; Hovius, N.; Adhikari, B. R.

2017-12-01

The Himalaya is a region of rapid erosion where fluvial processes are assumed to be driven by precipitation delivered during the annual Indian Summer Monsoon. However, the rivers in this region are also subject to catastrophic floods caused by the failure of glacial lake and landslide dams. Because these floods are rarely observed, it has been difficult to isolate their impact on the rivers and adjacent hillslopes, and their importance for the long-term evolution of Himalayan valleys is largely unknown. In July 2016, the Bhotekoshi/Sunkoshi River in central Nepal was hit by a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) that caused substantial changes to the channel bed, banks, and adjacent hillslopes, causing at least 26 landslides and an average of 11 m of channel widening. The flood passed through a seismic and hydrological observatory installed along the river in June 2015, and we have used the resulting data to constrain the timing, duration, and bedload transport properties of the outburst flood. The impact of the flood on the river can be further observed with hourly time-lapse photographs, daily measurements of suspended sediment load, repeat lidar surveys, and satellite imagery. The outburst flood affected the river on several timescales. In the short term, it transported large amounts of coarse sediment and restructured the river bed during the hours of the flood pulse itself. Over intermediate timescales it resulted in elevated bedload and suspended load transport for several weeks following the flood. Over longer timescales the flood undercut and destabilized the river banks and hillslopes in a number of locations, leading to bank collapses, slumps, and landslides. Our data indicate that impacts of the GLOF far exceed those driven by the annual summer monsoon, likely due to extremely coarse sediment that armors much of the channel. The relatively frequent occurrence of GLOFs and the extremely high discharges relative to monsoon floods suggest that GLOFs may

Middle Pleistocene (Saalian) lake outburst floods in the Münsterland Embayment (NW Germany): impacts and magnitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meinsen, Janine; Winsemann, Jutta; Weitkamp, Axel; Landmeyer, Nils; Lenz, Andreas; Dölling, Manfred

2011-09-01

During the late Saalian Drenthe glaciation ice-damming of the Upper Weser Valley led to the formation of glacial Lake Weser. The lake drained catastrophically into the Münsterland Embayment as the western ice dam failed, releasing up to 110 km 3 of water with a calculated peak discharge of 2.5 × 10 5 m 3/s to 1.3 × 10 6 m 3/s. Geographic information systems (GIS) and high-resolution digital elevation models (DEM) were used to map streamlined landforms and channel systems in front of lake overspills. Geological maps, 2450 boreholes and the DEM were integrated into the 3D modeling program GOCAD to reconstruct the distribution of flood-related deposits, palaeotopographic surfaces and the internal facies architecture of streamlined hills. The drainage pathways are characterized by the occurrence of deep plunge pools, channels, streamlined hills and 4 km long and 12 m deep V-shaped megaflutes. Plunge pools are deeply incised into Mesozoic basement rocks and occur in front of three major overspill channels. The plunge pools are up to 780 m long, 400 m wide and 35 m deep. Approximately 1-10.5 km downslope of the overspill channels fan shaped arrays of streamlined hills are developed, each covering an area of 60-130 km 2, indicating rapid flow expansion. The hills commonly have quadrilateral to elongated shapes and formed under submerged to partly submerged flow conditions, when the outburst flood entered a shallow lake in the Münsterland Embayment. Hills are up to 4300 m long, 1200 m wide, 11 m high and have characteristic average aspect ratios of 1:3.3. They are separated by shallow, anabranching channels in the outer zones and up to 30 m deep channels in the central zones. Hills partly display V-shaped chevron-like bedforms that have apices facing upslope, are 1.6-2.5 km long, 3-10 m high, 0.8-1.2 m from limb to limb, with limb separation angels of 20-35°. These bedforms are interpreted as mixed erosional depositional features. It is hypothesized that the post

Assessing Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Hazard in the Nepal Himalayas using Satellite Imagery and Hydraulic Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rounce, D.; McKinney, D. C.

2015-12-01

The last half century has witnessed considerable glacier melt that has led to the formation of large glacial lakes. These glacial lakes typically form behind terminal moraines comprising loose boulders, debris, and soil, which are susceptible to fail and cause a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF). These lakes also act as a heat sink that accelerates glacier melt and in many cases is accompanied by rapid areal expansion. As these glacial lakes continue to grow, their hazard also increases due to the increase in potential flood volume and the lakes' proximity to triggering events such as avalanches and landslides. Despite the large threat these lakes may pose to downstream communities, there are few detailed studies that combine satellite imagery with hydraulic models to present a holistic understanding of the GLOF hazard. The aim of this work is to assess the GLOF hazard of glacial lakes in Nepal using a holistic approach based on a combination of satellite imagery and hydraulic models. Imja Lake will be the primary focus of the modeling efforts, but the methods will be developed in a manner that is transferable to other potentially dangerous glacial lakes in Nepal.

Quick Release of Internal Water Storage in a Glacier Leads to Underestimation of the Hazard Potential of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods From Lake Merzbacher in Central Tian Shan Mountains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shangguan, Donghui; Ding, Yongjian; Liu, Shiyin; Xie, Zunyi; Pieczonka, Tino; Xu, Junli; Moldobekov, Bolot

2017-10-01

Glacial meltwater and ice calving contribute to the flood volume of glacial lakes such as Lake Merzbacher in the Tian Shan Mountains of central Asia. In this study, we simulated the lake's volume by constructing an empirical relationship between the area of Lake Merzbacher, determined from satellite images, and the lake's water storage, derived from digital elevation models. Results showed that the lake water supply rate before Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) generally agreed well with those during the GLOFs from 2009 to 2012 but not in 2008 and 2015. Furthermore, we found that the combination of glacial meltwater and ice calving is not enough to fully explain the supply rate during GLOFs in 1996 and 1999, suggesting other factors affect the supply rate during GLOFs as well. To examine this further, we compared the water supply rate before and during GLOF events in 1999 and 2008. We inferred that quickly released short-term and intermediate-term water storage by glaciers have likely contributed to both flood events in those years. This study highlights the need to improve our understanding of the supply component of outburst floods, such as irregularly released stored water may lead to GLOF events with generally three different types: case I (singular event-triggered englacial water release), case II (glacier melt due to temperature changes), and case III (englacial water release mixed with glacier melt).

Hydrologic and Geomorphic Impacts of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods From Low-Order Tributaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCoy, S. W.; Jacquet, J.; McGrath, D.; George, D. L.; Koschitzki, R.; Nimick, D.; Fahey, M. J.; Okuinghttons, J.

2017-12-01

Lakes dammed by glacial ice or moraines are common features in the headwaters of both glaciated and recently deglaciated catchments. These dams can fail releasing water in a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF), which raises the question: do GLOFs from low-order tributaries significantly alter the hydrology and sediment transport regimes of the large mainstem rivers to which they drain? Here we use repeat satellite imagery, in situ measurements, and 2D hydrodynamic modeling to quantify the hydrologic and geomorphic changes that resulted from 22 GLOFs that occurred between 2008 and 2016 from Lago Cachet Dos, Patagonia, Chile. We find that the complicated flood path that includes two lakes and a broad floodplain can dampen peak discharges from over 15,000 m³/s at the source lake to generally less than 2,000 m³/s where the floods enter the mainstem Rio Baker, 40 km downstream. Despite this dampening of GLOF peak discharge, peak discharges still exceeded the peak annual discharge of the Rio Baker, the largest river in Chile by volume, by 1 to 2 times, which in turn increased the frequency and magnitude of flood events. We also document the sediment dynamics in the source lake, where we find that over 25,000,000 m³ of stored sediment was removed during the GLOF cycle that began in 2008. Further downstream, repeat satellite imagery reveals that the large discharges associated with GLOFs produced a nonsteady channel configuration in which old stable channels were abandoned, many new channels were formed, and conveyance capacity changed, best illustrated by the 200 m of delta progradation from the GLOF-affected tributary into the Rio Baker that locally narrowed the Rio Baker channel width from 300 m to 60 m. In total, this analysis demonstrates that GLOFs from distant source lakes can have an outsized impact, both in terms of changing flood characteristics as well as sediment transport, even on the largest river systems.

An inventory of historical glacial lake outburst floods in the Himalayas based on remote sensing observations and geomorphological analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nie, Yong; Liu, Qiao; Wang, Jida; Zhang, Yili; Sheng, Yongwei; Liu, Shiyin

2018-05-01

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are a unique type of natural hazard in the cryosphere that may result in catastrophic fatalities and damages. The Himalayas are known as one of the world's most GLOF-vulnerable zones. Effective hazard assessments and risk management require a thorough inventory of historical GLOF events across the Himalayas, which is hitherto absent. Existing studies imply that numerous historical GLOF events are contentious because of discrepant geographic coordinates, names, or outburst time, requiring further verifications. This study reviews and verifies over 60 historical GLOF events across the Himalayas using a comprehensive method that combines literature documentations, archival remote sensing observations, geomorphological analysis, and field investigations. As a result, three unreported GLOF events were discovered from remote sensing images and geomorphological analysis. Eleven suspicious events were identified and suggested to be excluded. The properties of five outburst lakes, i.e., Degaco, Chongbaxia Tsho, Geiqu, Lemthang Tsho, and a lake on Tshojo Glacier, were corrected or updated. A total of 51 GLOF events were verified to be convincing, and these outburst lakes were classified into three categories according to their statuses in the past decades, namely disappeared (12), stable (30), and expanding (9). Statistics of the verified GLOF events show that GLOF tended to occur between April and October in the Himalayas. We suggest that more attention should be paid to rapidly expanding glacial lakes with high possibility of repetitive outbursts. This study also demonstrates the effectiveness of integrating remote sensing and geomorphic interpretations in identifying and verifying GLOF events in remote alpine environments. This inventory of GLOFs with a range of critical attributes (e.g., locations, time, and mechanisms) will benefit the continuous monitoring and prediction of potentially dangerous glacial lakes and contribute to

Climate change and the global pattern of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harrison, Stephan; Kargel, Jeffrey S.; Huggel, Christian; Reynolds, John; Shugar, Dan H.; Betts, Richard A.; Emmer, Adam; Glasser, Neil; Haritashya, Umesh K.; Klimeš, Jan; Reinhardt, Liam; Schaub, Yvonne; Wiltshire, Andy; Regmi, Dhananjay; Vilímek, Vít

2018-04-01

Despite recent research identifying a clear anthropogenic impact on glacier recession, the effect of recent climate change on glacier-related hazards is at present unclear. Here we present the first global spatio-temporal assessment of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) focusing explicitly on lake drainage following moraine dam failure. These floods occur as mountain glaciers recede and downwaste. GLOFs can have an enormous impact on downstream communities and infrastructure. Our assessment of GLOFs associated with the rapid drainage of moraine-dammed lakes provides insights into the historical trends of GLOFs and their distributions under current and future global climate change. We observe a clear global increase in GLOF frequency and their regularity around 1930, which likely represents a lagged response to post-Little Ice Age warming. Notably, we also show that GLOF frequency and regularity - rather unexpectedly - have declined in recent decades even during a time of rapid glacier recession. Although previous studies have suggested that GLOFs will increase in response to climate warming and glacier recession, our global results demonstrate that this has not yet clearly happened. From an assessment of the timing of climate forcing, lag times in glacier recession, lake formation and moraine-dam failure, we predict increased GLOF frequencies during the next decades and into the 22nd century.

Late Pleistocene outburst flooding from pluvial Lake Alvord into the Owyhee River, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carter, D.T.; Ely, L.L.; O'Connor, J. E.; Fenton, C.R.

2006-01-01

At least one large, late Pleistocene flood traveled into the Owyhee River as a result of a rise and subsequent outburst from pluvial Lake Alvord in southeastern Oregon. Lake Alvord breached Big Sand Gap in its eastern rim after reaching an elevation of 1292 m, releasing 11.3 km3 of water into the adjacent Coyote Basin as it eroded the Big Sand Gap outlet channel to an elevation of about 1280 m. The outflow filled and then spilled out of Coyote Basin through two outlets at 1278 m and into Crooked Creek drainage, ultimately flowing into the Owyhee and Snake Rivers. Along Crooked Creek, the resulting flood eroded canyons, stripped bedrock surfaces, and deposited numerous boulder bars containing imbricated clasts up to 4.1 m in diameter, some of which are located over 30 m above the present-day channel. Critical depth calculations at Big Sand Gap show that maximum outflow from a 1292- to 1280-m drop in Lake Alvord was ??? 10,000 m3 s- 1. Flooding became confined to a single channel approximately 40 km downstream of Big Sand Gap, where step-backwater calculations show that a much larger peak discharge of 40,000 m3 s- 1 is required to match the highest geologic evidence of the flood in this channel. This inconsistency can be explained by (1) a single 10,000 m3 s- 1 flood that caused at least 13 m of vertical incision in the channel (hence enlarging the channel cross-section); (2) multiple floods of 10,000 m3 s- 1 or less, each producing some incision of the channel; or (3) an earlier flood of 40,000 m3 s- 1 creating the highest flood deposits and crossed drainage divides observed along Crooked Creek drainage, followed by a later 10,000 m3 s- 1 flood associated with the most recent shorelines in Alvord and Coyote Basins. Well-developed shorelines of Lake Alvord at 1280 m and in Coyote Basin at 1278 m suggest that after the initial flood, postflood overflow persisted for an extended period, connecting Alvord and Coyote Basins with the Owyhee River of the Columbia River

Periodic Glacial Lake Outburst Floods threatening the oldest Buddhist monastery in north-west Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kropáček, J.; Neckel, N.; Tyrna, B.; Holzer, N.; Hovden, A.; Gourmelen, N.; Schneider, C.; Buchroithner, M.; Hochschild, V.

2014-11-01

Since 2004 Halji Village, home of the oldest Buddhist Monastery in north-west Nepal has suffered from recurrent Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs). Studies of recent satellite images identified a supra-glacial lake, located at a distance of 6.5 km from the village, as a possible source of the flood. During a field survey in 2013, the finding was confirmed and several entrances to en-glacial conduits which are draining the lake were found. The topography of the lake basin was then mapped by combining Differential Global Positioning System (DGPS) measurements with a Structure From Motion (SFM) approach from terrestrial photographs. From this model the maximum filling capacity of the lake has been estimated as 1.06 × 106 m3 with a maximum discharge of 77.8 m3 s-1 calculated using an empirical relation. The flooded area in the valley has been estimated by employing a raster-based hydraulic model considering six scenarios of discharge volume and surface roughness. To understand the changes in glacier geometry in the last decade the thinning and retreat of Halji Glacier have been analysed by geodetic mass balance measurements and a time series of satellite images respectively. The GLOF occurrences have further been correlated with cumulative temperature and cumulative liquid precipitation calculated from the High Asia Reanalysis (HAR) dataset. Finally, effective mitigation measures and adaption strategies for Halji village have been discussed.

Insights from analyzing and modelling cascading multi-lake outburst flood events in the Santa Cruz Valley (Cordillera Blanca, Perú)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emmer, Adam; Mergili, Martin; Juřicová, Anna; Cochachin, Alejo; Huggel, Christian

2016-04-01

Since the end of Little Ice Age, the Cordillera Blanca of Perú has experienced tens of lake outburst floods (LOFs), resulting in the loss of thousands of lives and significant material damages. Most commonly involving glacial lakes, such events are often directly or indirectly related to glacier retreat. Here we analyze an event on 8th February 2012 involving four lakes and affecting two valleys (Santa Cruz and Artizón) in the northern part of the Cordillera Blanca. Using the combination of field data, satellite images, digital elevation model (DEM) and GIS-based modelling approaches, the main objectives are: (i) to better understand complex multi-lake outburst flood and related foregoing and induced geomorphological processes; and (ii) to evaluate and discuss the suitability, potentials and limitations of the r.avaflow model for modelling such complex process chains. Analyzing field geomorphological evidence and remotely-sensed images, we reconstruct the event as follows: a landslide from the recently deglaciated left lateral moraine of Lake Artizón Alto (4 639 m a.s.l.), characterized by steep slopes and a height of more than 200 m produced a displacement wave which overtopped the bedrock dam of the lake. The resulting flood wave breached the dam of the downstream moraine-/landslide-dammed Lake Artizón Bajo (4 477 m a.s.l.), decreasing the lake level by 10 m and releasing 3 x 105 m3 of water. Significant amounts of material were eroded from the steeper parts of the Artizón Valley (mean slope >15°) and deposited further downstream in the flatter part of the Santa Cruz Valley (mean slope <2°; confluence of the two valleys at 3 985 m a.s.l.). The flood affected two debris cone-dammed lakes (Jatuncocha and Ichiccocha) in the Santa Cruz Valley. Some minor damages to the dam of Lake Jatuncocha were documented. Geomprohological evidence of the event was observed more than 20 km downstream from Lake Artizón Alto. The described multi-LOF event was employed as a

Experimental modelling of outburst flood - bed interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carrivick, J. L.; Xie, Z.; Sleigh, A.; Hubbard, M.

2009-04-01

Outburst floods are a sudden release and advancing wave of water and sediment, with a peak discharge that is often several orders of magnitude greater than perennial flows. Common outburst floods from natural sources include those from glacial and moraine-impounded lakes, freshwater dyke and levee bursts, volcanic debris dams, landslides, avalanches, coastal bay-bars, and those from tree or vegetation dams. Outburst flood hazards are regularly incorporated into risk assessments for urban, coastal and mountainous areas, for example. Outburst flood hazards are primarily due to direct impacts, caused by a frontal surge wave, from debris within a flow body, and from the mass and consistency of the flows. A number of secondary impacts also pose hazards, including widespread deposition of sediment and blocked tributary streams. It is rapid landscape change, which is achieved the mobilization and redistribution of sediment that causes one of the greatest hazards due to outburst floods. The aim of this project is therefore to parameterise hydrodynamic - sedimentary interactions in experimental outburst floods. Specifically, this project applies laboratory flume modelling, which offers a hitherto untapped opportunity for examining complex interactions between water and sediment within outburst floods. The experimental set-up is of a tradition lock-gate design with a straight 4 m long tank. Hydraulics are scaled at 1:20 froude scale and the following controls on frontal wave flow-bed interactions and hence on rapid landscape change are being investigated: 1. Pre-existing mobile sediment effects, fixed bed roughness effects, sediment concentration effects, mobile bed effects. An emphasis is being maintained on examining the downstream temporal and spatial change in physical character of the water / sediment frontal wave. Facilities are state-of-the-art with a fully-automated laser bed-profiler to measure bed elevation after a run, Seatek arrays to measure transient flow

Repeated glacial lake outburst flood threatening the oldest Buddhist monastery in north-western Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kropáček, J.; Neckel, N.; Tyrna, B.; Holzer, N.; Hovden, A.; Gourmelen, N.; Schneider, C.; Buchroithner, M.; Hochschild, V.

2015-10-01

Since 2004, Halji village, home of the oldest Buddhist Monastery in north-western Nepal, has suffered from recurrent glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). A sudden englacial drainage of a supraglacial lake, located at a distance of 6.5 km from the village, was identified as the source of the flood. The topography of the lake basin was mapped by combining differential Global Positioning System (DGPS) measurements with a structure-from-motion (SFM) approach using terrestrial photographs. From this model the maximum filling capacity of the lake has been estimated as 1.06 ×106 m3 with a maximum discharge of 77.8 m3 s-1, calculated using the empiric Clague-Mathews formula. A simulation of the flooded area employing a raster-based hydraulic model considering six scenarios of discharge volume and surface roughness did not result in a flooding of the village. However, both the village and the monastery are threatened by undercutting of the river bank formed by unconsolidated sediments, as it already happened in 2011. Further, the comparison of the GLOF occurrences with temperature and precipitation from the High Asia Reanalysis (HAR) data set for the period 2001-2011 suggests that the GLOF is climate-driven rather than generated by an extreme precipitation event. The calculation of geodetic mass balance and the analysis of satellite images showed a rapid thinning and retreat of Halji Glacier which will eventually lead to a decline of the lake basin. As the basin will persist for at least several years, effective mitigation measures should be considered. A further reinforcement of the gabion walls was suggested as an artificial lake drainage is not feasible given the difficult accessibility of the glacier.

Glacier change and glacial lake outburst flood risk in the Bolivian Andes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kougkoulos, Ioannis; Cook, Simon J.; Edwards, Laura A.; Dortch, Jason; Hoffmann, Dirk

2017-04-01

Glaciers of the Bolivian Andes represent an important water resource for Andean cities and mountain communities, yet relatively little work has assessed changes in their extent over recent decades. In many mountain regions, glacier recession has been accompanied by the development of proglacial lakes, which can pose a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) hazard. However, no studies have assessed the development of such lakes in Bolivia despite recent GLOF incidents here. Our mapping from satellite imagery reveals an overall areal shrinkage of 228.1 ± 22.8 km2 (43.1%) across the Bolivian Cordillera Oriental between 1986 and 2014. Shrinkage was greatest in the Tres Cruces region (47.3%), followed by the Cordillera Apolobamba (43.1%) and Cordillera Real (41.9%). A growing number of proglacial lakes have developed as glaciers have receded, in accordance with trends in most other deglaciating mountain ranges, although the number of ice-contact lakes has decreased. The reasons for this are unclear, but the pattern of lake change has varied significantly throughout the study period, suggesting that monitoring of future lake development is required as ice continues to recede. Ultimately, we use our 2014 database of proglacial lakes to assess GLOF risk across the Bolivian Andes. We identify 25 lakes that pose a potential GLOF threat to downstream communities and infrastructure. We suggest that further studies of potential GLOF impacts are urgently required.

Glacier change and glacial lake outburst flood risk in the Bolivian Andes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, Simon J.; Kougkoulos, Ioannis; Edwards, Laura A.; Dortch, Jason; Hoffmann, Dirk

2016-10-01

Glaciers of the Bolivian Andes represent an important water resource for Andean cities and mountain communities, yet relatively little work has assessed changes in their extent over recent decades. In many mountain regions, glacier recession has been accompanied by the development of proglacial lakes, which can pose a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) hazard. However, no studies have assessed the development of such lakes in Bolivia despite recent GLOF incidents here. Our mapping from satellite imagery reveals an overall areal shrinkage of 228.1 ± 22.8 km2 (43.1 %) across the Bolivian Cordillera Oriental between 1986 and 2014. Shrinkage was greatest in the Tres Cruces region (47.3 %), followed by the Cordillera Apolobamba (43.1 %) and Cordillera Real (41.9 %). A growing number of proglacial lakes have developed as glaciers have receded, in accordance with trends in most other deglaciating mountain ranges, although the number of ice-contact lakes has decreased. The reasons for this are unclear, but the pattern of lake change has varied significantly throughout the study period, suggesting that monitoring of future lake development is required as ice continues to recede. Ultimately, we use our 2014 database of proglacial lakes to assess GLOF risk across the Bolivian Andes. We identify 25 lakes that pose a potential GLOF threat to downstream communities and infrastructure. We suggest that further studies of potential GLOF impacts are urgently required.

Seismic Monitoring and Characterization of the 2012 Outburst Flood of the Ice-Dammed Lake A.P.Olsen (NE Greenland)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Behm, M.; Walter, J. I.; Binder, D.; Mertl, S.

2017-12-01

Since the Zackenberg Research Station (ZRS) in NE-Greenland was established in 1995, regular floods of the adjacent Zackenberg River have been observed. The floods result from the sudden discharge of a marginal, ice-dammed lake at the pre-dominantly cold-based A.P. Olsen Ice Cap about 35 km inland. The lake filling usually starts with the melting season in May/June and ends with the flood sometime after early July. The run-off water from the lake discharges through the subsurface of the adjacent Argo glacier. The actual migration paths and depth of the water within the glacier are unknown until it re-appears at the glacier terminus at a distance of 4 km to the ice-dam. In spring 2012 a surface seismic monitoring network was installed on Argo glacier in 2-3 m boreholes near the lake to acquire continuous data for the whole fill- and drain cycle from start of May to end of November. The network comprises 3 stations with three-component sensors and 2 stations designed as tripartite arrays with vertically oriented sensors. The maximum interstation distance is 1.2 km. Microseismic event detection and localization is facilitated by the homogenous seismic structure of the ice and the extremely high S/N ratio of the borehole installations. An initial detection based on an STA/LTA algorithm and event assocator results in order-of-magnitude 100,000 seismic events. These events are generally attributed to the opening of surface crevasses due to the presence of weak body waves and strong surface wave energy, interpreted to be Rayleigh waves with dominant frequencies around 1-4 Hz. Time-lapse cross-correlations of the ambient seismic noise field reconstruct the surface waves travelling between the stations. Weekly stacks of the cross-correlations are stable, and show a distinct change correlated with the outburst flood. Apparent surface wave velocities increase slightly several weeks prior to the outburst event, which itself is characterized by a decrease in the correlation

Emergency satellite observation and assessment of a glacier lake outburst flood in Bhutan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagai, Hiroto; Tadono, Takeo; Suzuki, Shinichi

2016-04-01

Following a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) on Jun. 28, 2015, in western Bhutan, the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency performed an emergency observation on Jul. 2, 2015 using the Phased Array type L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar-2 (PALSAR-2) onboard the Advanced Land Observing Satellite-2 (ALOS-2, "DAICHI-2"). Based on a dataset generated from the Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS) imagery, "The Glacial Lake Inventory of Bhutan using ALOS Data", the glacier lake that potentially contributed to this GLOF were identified at 28°4'7.7"N, 89°34'50.0"E, in a headwater of the Mo Chu river basin, western Bhutan. A post-event lake outline was delineated manually using the acquired PALSAR-2 image. Pre-event outlines were delineated from previously acquired PALSAR-2 images (Apr. 23, 2015), Landsat 8 (Mar. 8, 2015), and ALOS (Dec. 22, 2010). The differences between these outlines reveal a remarkable expansion (+48.0%) from Mar. 8 to Apr. 23, 2015, followed by a remarkable shrinkage (-52.9%) from Apr. 23 to Jul. 2, 2015. This result indicates the lake to be a highly likely source of the flood. Topographically, it is located at a glacier terminus, surrounded by a moraine. Differing backscatter patterns between successive PALSAR-2 images in a certain part of the moraine suggest that it underwent some collapse, possibly as a result of the GLOF. More detailed investigations, including field surveys, are necessary to fully reveal and understand this event.

21st century Himalayan hydropower: Growing exposure to glacial lake outburst floods?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwanghart, Wolfgang; Worni, Raphael; Huggel, Christian; Stoffel, Markus; Korup, Oliver

2014-05-01

Primary energy demand in China and India has increased fivefold since 1980. To avoid power shortages and blackouts, the hydropower infrastructure in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya region is seeing massive development, a strategy supported by the policy of the World Bank and in harmony with the framework of the Kyoto Protocol. The targeted investments in clean energy from water resources, however, may trigger far-reaching impacts to downstream communities given that hydropower projects are planned and constructed in close vicinity to glaciated areas. We hypothesize that the location of these new schemes may be subject to higher exposure to a broad portfolio of natural hazards that proliferate in the steep, dissected, and tectonically active topography of the Himalayas. Here we focus on the hazard from glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF), and offer an unprecedented regional analysis for the Hindu Kush-Himalaya orogen. We compiled a database of nearly 4,000 proglacial lakes that we mapped from satellite imagery; and focus on those as potential GLOF sources that are situated above several dozen planned and existing hydropower plants. We implemented a scenario-based flood-wave propagation model of hypothetic GLOFs, and compared thus simulated peak discharges with those of the local design floods at the power plants. Multiple model runs confirm earlier notions that GLOF discharge may exceed meteorological, i.e. monsoon-fed, flood peaks by at least an order of magnitude throughout the Hindu Kush-Himalaya. We further show that the current trend in hydropower development near glaciated areas may lead to a >15% increase of projects that may be impacted by future GLOFs. At the same time, the majority of the projects are to be sited where outburst flood modelling produces its maximum uncertainty, highlighting the problem of locating minimum risk sites for hydropower. Exposure to GLOFs is not uniformly distributed in the Himalayas, and is particularly high in rivers draining the Mt

Reconstruction of glacial lake outburst floods in northern Tien Shan: Implications for hazard assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaginaev, V.; Ballesteros-Cánovas, J. A.; Erokhin, S.; Matov, E.; Petrakov, D.; Stoffel, M.

2016-09-01

Glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) and related debris flows are among the most significant natural threats in the Tien Shan Mountains of Kyrgyzstan and have even caused the loss of life and damage to infrastructure in its capital Bishkek. An improved understanding of the occurrence of this process is essential so as to be able to design reliable disaster risk reduction strategies, even more so in view of ongoing climate change and scenarios of future evolutions. Here, we apply a dendrogeomorphic approach to reconstruct past debris-flow activity on the Aksay cone (Ala-Archa valley, Kyrgyz range), where outbursting glacier lakes and intense rainfalls have triggered huge debris flows over the past decades. A total of 96 Picea abies (L.) Karst. trees growing on the cone and along the main channel have been selected based on the evidence of past debris-flow damage in their trunks; these trees were then sampled using increment borers. The dating of past events was based on the assessment of growth disturbances (GD) in the tree-ring records and included the detection of injuries, tangential rows of traumatic resin ducts, reaction wood, and abrupt growth changes. In total, 320 GD were identified in the tree-ring samples. In combination with aerial imagery and geomorphic recognition in the field, reactions in trees and their position on the cone have allowed reconstruction of the main spatial patterns of past events on the Aksay cone. Our findings suggest that at least 27 debris flows have occurred on the site between 1877 and 2015 and point to the occurrence of at least 17 events that were not documented prior to this study. We also observe high process activity during the 1950s and 1960s, with major events on the cone in 1950, 1966, and 1968, coinciding with phases of slight glacier advance. The spatial analyses of events also point to two different spatial patterns, suggesting that quite dissimilar magnitudes probably occurred during glacier lake outburst floods and

Identifying and Evaluating Possible Trigger Mechanisms for Glacial Lake Outburst Floods in the Hindu Kush Himalayas Using Remote Sensing Satellite Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hess, T. G.; Haritashya, U. K.

2014-12-01

Glacierized basins in high-altitude and mountainous areas, such as the Himalayas, have seen an increase in the number of glacial lakes over the years as a result of a changing climate. As the meltwater becomes more prevalent, the runoff can accumulate in a depression left behind by the receding glacier and can be bound by the walls of frontal and lateral moraines. These moraines, however, often are comprised of loose, unconsolidated sediment and can prove to be unstable dam structures for proglacial lakes. The factor of instability associated with the moraines poses a serious threat for failure and severe flooding. If the moraines were to be breached by the lake water, a phenomenon known as a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) can occur, potentially putting lives and infrastructure in harm's way. Consequently, this study examines the likelihood of a GLOF occurrence by analyzing potential trigger mechanisms associated with three proglacial lakes in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region. Using ASTER satellite imagery, one lake from Nepal, India, and Bhutan have each been assessed for possible trigger mechanisms. Our results suggest that steep-sided moraines, rugged topography, unstable masses on the upper reaches of steep slopes, and smaller lakes perched high above can all be classified as possible trigger mechanisms for the areas of study. It is imperative to be able to successfully identify potential trigger mechanisms using satellite data so that further ground observations can be made and mitigation efforts can be incorporated where needed. As lakes continue to grow, so does the cause for concern for possible GLOFs. Glacial lake outburst floods are being studied more extensively now due to the greater number of glacial lakes in high-mountainous areas. It is vitally important to understand the dynamics of a GLOF, especially the potential trigger mechanisms associated with it.

Modeling a Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Process Chain: The Case of Lake Palcacocha and Huaraz, Peru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chisolm, Rachel; Somos-Valenzuela, Marcelo; Rivas Gomez, Denny; McKinney, Daene C.; Portocarrero Rodriguez, Cesar

2016-04-01

One of the consequences of recent glacier recession in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, is the risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) from lakes that have formed at the base of retreating glaciers. GLOFs are often triggered by avalanches falling into glacial lakes, initiating a chain of processes that may culminate in significant inundation and destruction downstream. This paper presents simulations of all of the processes involved in a potential GLOF originating from Lake Palcacocha, the source of a previously catastrophic GLOF on December 13, 1941, 1800 people in the city of Huaraz, Peru. The chain of processes simulated here includes: (1) avalanches above the lake; (2) lake dynamics resulting from the avalanche impact, including wave generation, propagation, and run-up across lakes; (3) terminal moraine overtopping and dynamic moraine erosion simulations to determine the possibility of breaching; (4) flood propagation along downstream valleys; and (5) inundation of populated areas. The results of each process feed into simulations of subsequent processes in the chain, finally resulting in estimates of inundation in the city of Huaraz. The results of the inundation simulations were converted into flood intensity and hazard maps (based on an intensity-likelihood matrix) that may be useful for city planning and regulation. Three avalanche events with volumes ranging from 0.5-3 x 106 m3 were simulated, and two scenarios of 15 m and 30 m lake lowering were simulated to assess the potential of mitigating the hazard level in Huaraz. For all three avalanche events, three-dimensional hydrodynamic models show large waves generated in the lake from the impact resulting in overtopping of the damming-moraine. Despite very high discharge rates (up to 63.4 x 103 m3/s), the erosion from the overtopping wave did not result in failure of the damming-moraine when simulated with a hydro-morphodynamic model using excessively conservative soil characteristics that provide very

Modeling a glacial lake outburst flood process chain: the case of Lake Palcacocha and Huaraz, Peru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Somos-Valenzuela, Marcelo A.; Chisolm, Rachel E.; Rivas, Denny S.; Portocarrero, Cesar; McKinney, Daene C.

2016-07-01

One of the consequences of recent glacier recession in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, is the risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) from lakes that have formed at the base of retreating glaciers. GLOFs are often triggered by avalanches falling into glacial lakes, initiating a chain of processes that may culminate in significant inundation and destruction downstream. This paper presents simulations of all of the processes involved in a potential GLOF originating from Lake Palcacocha, the source of a previously catastrophic GLOF on 13 December 1941, killing about 1800 people in the city of Huaraz, Peru. The chain of processes simulated here includes (1) avalanches above the lake; (2) lake dynamics resulting from the avalanche impact, including wave generation, propagation, and run-up across lakes; (3) terminal moraine overtopping and dynamic moraine erosion simulations to determine the possibility of breaching; (4) flood propagation along downstream valleys; and (5) inundation of populated areas. The results of each process feed into simulations of subsequent processes in the chain, finally resulting in estimates of inundation in the city of Huaraz. The results of the inundation simulations were converted into flood intensity and preliminary hazard maps (based on an intensity-likelihood matrix) that may be useful for city planning and regulation. Three avalanche events with volumes ranging from 0.5 to 3 × 106 m3 were simulated, and two scenarios of 15 and 30 m lake lowering were simulated to assess the potential of mitigating the hazard level in Huaraz. For all three avalanche events, three-dimensional hydrodynamic models show large waves generated in the lake from the impact resulting in overtopping of the damming moraine. Despite very high discharge rates (up to 63.4 × 103 m3 s-1), the erosion from the overtopping wave did not result in failure of the damming moraine when simulated with a hydro-morphodynamic model using excessively conservative soil

Mercury exports from a High-Arctic river basin in Northeast Greenland (74°N) largely controlled by glacial lake outburst floods.

PubMed

Søndergaard, Jens; Tamstorf, Mikkel; Elberling, Bo; Larsen, Martin M; Mylius, Maria Rask; Lund, Magnus; Abermann, Jakob; Rigét, Frank

2015-05-01

Riverine mercury (Hg) export dynamics from the Zackenberg River Basin (ZRB) in Northeast Greenland were studied for the period 2009-2013. Dissolved and sediment-bound Hg was measured regularly in the Zackenberg River throughout the periods with running water (June-October) and coupled to water discharge measurements. Also, a few samples of snow, soil, and permafrost were analysed for Hg. Mean concentrations of dissolved and sediment-bound Hg in the river water (±SD) were 0.39 ± 0.13 and 5.5 ± 1.4 ngL(-1), respectively, and mean concentrations of Hg in the river sediment were 0.033 ± 0.025 mg kg(-1). Temporal variations in river Hg were mainly associated with snowmelt, sudden erosion events, and outburst floods from a glacier-dammed lake in the upper part of the ZRB. Annual Hg exports from the 514 km(2) ZRB varied from 0.71 to >1.57 kg and the majority (86-96%) was associated with sediment-bound Hg. Hg yields from the ZRB varied from 1.4-3.1 gH gk m(-2)yr(-1) and were among the highest yields reported from Arctic river basins. River exports of Hg from ZRB were found to be largely controlled by the frequency, magnitude and timing of the glacial lake outburst floods, which occurred in four of the five years in July-August. Floods accounted for 5 to >10% of the annual water discharge, and up to >31% of the annual Hg export. Also, the winter snowfall and the summer temperatures were found to be important indirect controls on the annual Hg export. The occurrence and timing of glacial lake outburst floods in the ZRB in late summer at the time of maximum soil thaw depth, the location of the glacier in the upper ZRB, and increased thawing of the permafrost in Zackenberg in recent years leading to destabilisation of river banks are considered central factors explaining the high fraction of flood-controlled Hg export in this area. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hazard Map in Huaraz-Peru due to a Glacial Lake Outburst Flood from Palcacocha Lake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Somos-Valenzuela, M. A.; Chisolm, R. E.; McKinney, D. C.; Rivas, D.

2013-12-01

Palcacocha lake is located in the Ancash Region in the Cordillera Blanca at an elevation of 4,567 m in the Quilcay sub-basin, province of Huaraz, Peru. The lake drains into the Quebrada Cojup, which subsequently drains into the Quilcay River. The Quilcay River passes through the City of Huaraz emptying its water into the Santa River, which is the primary river of the basin. This location has a special interest since the city of Huaraz, which is located at the bottom of the Quilcay sub-basin, was devastated by a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) released from Lake Palcacocha on December 13, 1941. In that event, many lost their lives. In recent years Palcacocha has grown to the point where the lake is once again dangerous. Ice/rock avalanches from the steep surrounding slopes can now directly reach the lake. A process chain of debris flow and hyper-concentrated flow from Lake Palcacocha could easily reach the city of Huaraz with the current lake volume. Local authorities and people living in Huaraz are concerned about the threat posed by Lake Palcacocha, and consequently they have requested technical support in order to investigate the impacts that a GLOF could have in the city of Huaraz. To assess the hazard for the city of Huaraz a holistic approach is used that considers a chain of processes that could interact in a GLOF event from Lake Palcacocha. We assume that an avalanche from Palcaraju glacier, located directly above the lake, could be a GLOF trigger, followed by the formation of waves in the lake that can overtop the damming moraine starting an erosive process. The wave and avalanche simulations are described in another work, and here we use those results to simulate the propagation of the inundation downstream using FLO-2D, a model that allows us to include debris flow. GLOF hydrographs are generated using a dam break module in Mike 11. Empirical equations are used to calculate the hydrograph peaks and calibrate the inundation model. In order to quantify

Identification of Younger Dryas outburst flood path from Lake Agassiz to the Arctic Ocean.

PubMed

Murton, Julian B; Bateman, Mark D; Dallimore, Scott R; Teller, James T; Yang, Zhirong

2010-04-01

The melting Laurentide Ice Sheet discharged thousands of cubic kilometres of fresh water each year into surrounding oceans, at times suppressing the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and triggering abrupt climate change. Understanding the physical mechanisms leading to events such as the Younger Dryas cold interval requires identification of the paths and timing of the freshwater discharges. Although Broecker et al. hypothesized in 1989 that an outburst from glacial Lake Agassiz triggered the Younger Dryas, specific evidence has so far proved elusive, leading Broecker to conclude in 2006 that "our inability to identify the path taken by the flood is disconcerting". Here we identify the missing flood path-evident from gravels and a regional erosion surface-running through the Mackenzie River system in the Canadian Arctic Coastal Plain. Our modelling of the isostatically adjusted surface in the upstream Fort McMurray region, and a slight revision of the ice margin at this time, allows Lake Agassiz to spill into the Mackenzie drainage basin. From optically stimulated luminescence dating we have determined the approximate age of this Mackenzie River flood into the Arctic Ocean to be shortly after 13,000 years ago, near the start of the Younger Dryas. We attribute to this flood a boulder terrace near Fort McMurray with calibrated radiocarbon dates of over 11,500 years ago. A large flood into the Arctic Ocean at the start of the Younger Dryas leads us to reject the widespread view that Agassiz overflow at this time was solely eastward into the North Atlantic Ocean.

Debris flows resulting from glacial-lake outburst floods in tibet, China

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cui, P.; Dang, C.; Cheng, Z.; Scott, K.

2010-01-01

During the last 70 years of general climatic amelioration, 18 glacial-lake outburst floods (GLOFs) and related debris flows have occurred from 15 moraine-dammed lakes in Tibet, China. Catastrophic loss of life and property has occurred because of the following factors: the large volumes of water discharged, the steep gradients of the U-shaped channels, and the amount and texture of the downstream channel bed and bank material. The peak discharge of each GLOF exceeded 1000 m3/s. These flood discharges transformed to non-cohesive debris flows if the channels contained sufficient loose sediment for entrainment (bulking) and if their gradients were >1%. We focus on this key element, transformation, and suggest that it be included in evaluating future GLOF-related risk, the probability of transformation to debris flow and hyperconcentrated flow. The general, sequential evolution of the flows can be described as from proximal GLOFs, to sedimentladen streamflow, to hyperconcentrated flow, to non-cohesive debris flow (viscous or cohesive debris flow only if sufficient fine sediment is present), and then, distally, back to hyperconcentrated flow and sediment-laden streamflow as sediment is progressively deposited. Most of the Tibet examples transformed only to non-cohesive debris flows. The important lesson for future hazard assessment and mitigation planning is that, as a GLOF entrains (bulks) enough sediment to become a debris flow, the flow volume must increase by at least three times (the "bulking factor"). In fact, the transforming flow waves overrun and mix with downstream streamflow, in addition to adding the entrained sediment (and thus enabling addition of yet more sediment and a bulking factor in excess of three times). To effectively reduce the risk of GLOF debris flows, reducing the level of a potentially dangerous lake with a siphon or excavated spillway or installing gabions in combination with a downstream debris dam are the primary approaches.

Moraine-dammed lake failures in Patagonia and assessment of outburst susceptibility in the Baker Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iribarren Anacona, P.; Norton, K. P.; Mackintosh, A.

2014-07-01

Glacier retreat since the Little Ice Age has resulted in the development or expansion of hundreds of glacial lakes in Patagonia. Some of these lakes have produced large (≥106 m3) Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) damaging inhabited areas. GLOF hazard studies in Patagonia have been mainly based on the analysis of short-term series (≤50 years) of flood data and until now no attempt has been made to identify the relative susceptibility of lakes to failure. Power schemes and associated infrastructure are planned for Patagonian basins that have historically been affected by GLOFs, and we now require a thorough understanding of the characteristics of dangerous lakes in order to assist with hazard assessment and planning. In this paper, the conditioning factors of 16 outbursts from moraine dammed lakes in Patagonia were analysed. These data were used to develop a classification scheme designed to assess outburst susceptibility, based on image classification techniques, flow routine algorithms and the Analytical Hierarchy Process. This scheme was applied to the Baker Basin, Chile, where at least 7 moraine-dammed lakes have failed in historic time. We identified 386 moraine-dammed lakes in the Baker Basin of which 28 were classified with high or very high outburst susceptibility. Commonly, lakes with high outburst susceptibility are in contact with glaciers and have moderate (>8°) to steep (>15°) dam outlet slopes, akin to failed lakes in Patagonia. The proposed classification scheme is suitable for first-order GLOF hazard assessments in this region. However, rapidly changing glaciers in Patagonia make detailed analysis and monitoring of hazardous lakes and glaciated areas upstream from inhabited areas or critical infrastructure necessary, in order to better prepare for hazards emerging from an evolving cryosphere.

Moraine-dammed lake failures in Patagonia and assessment of outburst susceptibility in the Baker Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iribarren Anacona, P.; Norton, K. P.; Mackintosh, A.

2014-12-01

Glacier retreat since the Little Ice Age has resulted in the development or expansion of hundreds of glacial lakes in Patagonia. Some of these lakes have produced large (≥ 106 m3) Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) damaging inhabited areas. GLOF hazard studies in Patagonia have been mainly based on the analysis of short-term series (≤ 50 years) of flood data and until now no attempt has been made to identify the relative susceptibility of lakes to failure. Power schemes and associated infrastructure are planned for Patagonian basins that have historically been affected by GLOFs, and we now require a thorough understanding of the characteristics of dangerous lakes in order to assist with hazard assessment and planning. In this paper, the conditioning factors of 16 outbursts from moraine-dammed lakes in Patagonia were analysed. These data were used to develop a classification scheme designed to assess outburst susceptibility, based on image classification techniques, flow routine algorithms and the Analytical Hierarchy Process. This scheme was applied to the Baker Basin, Chile, where at least seven moraine-dammed lakes have failed in historic time. We identified 386 moraine-dammed lakes in the Baker Basin of which 28 were classified with high or very high outburst susceptibility. Commonly, lakes with high outburst susceptibility are in contact with glaciers and have moderate (> 8°) to steep (> 15°) dam outlet slopes, akin to failed lakes in Patagonia. The proposed classification scheme is suitable for first-order GLOF hazard assessments in this region. However, rapidly changing glaciers in Patagonia make detailed analysis and monitoring of hazardous lakes and glaciated areas upstream from inhabited areas or critical infrastructure necessary, in order to better prepare for hazards emerging from an evolving cryosphere.

Progressive incision of the Channeled Scablands by outburst floods.

PubMed

Larsen, Isaac J; Lamb, Michael P

2016-10-13

The surfaces of Earth and Mars contain large bedrock canyons that were carved by catastrophic outburst floods. Reconstructing the magnitude of these canyon-forming floods is essential for understanding the ways in which floods modify planetary surfaces, the hydrology of early Mars and abrupt changes in climate. Flood discharges are often estimated by assuming that the floods filled the canyons to their brims with water; however, an alternative hypothesis is that canyon morphology adjusts during incision such that bed shear stresses exceed the threshold for erosion by a small amount. Here we show that accounting for erosion thresholds during canyon incision results in near-constant discharges that are five- to ten-fold smaller than full-to-the-brim estimates for Moses Coulee, a canyon in the Channeled Scablands, which was carved during the Pleistocene by the catastrophic Missoula floods in eastern Washington, USA. The predicted discharges are consistent with flow-depth indicators from gravel bars within the canyon. In contrast, under the assumption that floods filled canyons to their brims, a large and monotonic increase in flood discharge is predicted as the canyon was progressively incised, which is at odds with the discharges expected for floods originating from glacial lake outbursts. These findings suggest that flood-carved landscapes in fractured rock might evolve to a threshold state for bedrock erosion, thus implying much lower flood discharges than previously thought.

Progressive incision of the Channeled Scablands by outburst floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larsen, Isaac J.; Lamb, Michael P.

2016-10-01

The surfaces of Earth and Mars contain large bedrock canyons that were carved by catastrophic outburst floods. Reconstructing the magnitude of these canyon-forming floods is essential for understanding the ways in which floods modify planetary surfaces, the hydrology of early Mars and abrupt changes in climate. Flood discharges are often estimated by assuming that the floods filled the canyons to their brims with water; however, an alternative hypothesis is that canyon morphology adjusts during incision such that bed shear stresses exceed the threshold for erosion by a small amount. Here we show that accounting for erosion thresholds during canyon incision results in near-constant discharges that are five- to ten-fold smaller than full-to-the-brim estimates for Moses Coulee, a canyon in the Channeled Scablands, which was carved during the Pleistocene by the catastrophic Missoula floods in eastern Washington, USA. The predicted discharges are consistent with flow-depth indicators from gravel bars within the canyon. In contrast, under the assumption that floods filled canyons to their brims, a large and monotonic increase in flood discharge is predicted as the canyon was progressively incised, which is at odds with the discharges expected for floods originating from glacial lake outbursts. These findings suggest that flood-carved landscapes in fractured rock might evolve to a threshold state for bedrock erosion, thus implying much lower flood discharges than previously thought.

Mega deposits and erosive features related to the glacial lake Nedre Glomsjø outburst flood, southeastern Norway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Høgaas, Fredrik; Longva, Oddvar

2016-11-01

In this paper we present a suite of erosional remnants, mega deposits and subtle bar morphology that we relate to the outburst flood from the glacial lake Nedre Glomsjø at the end of the last Ice Age. By using large datasets of airborne LiDAR data implemented in a geographic information system (GIS), we have mapped flood related features along the Glomma and Vrangselva rivers in southeastern Norway. The unprecedented overview of the valley reaches obtained by the vegetation-free LiDAR-derived digital elevation models (DEM) has revealed a set of hitherto undocumented landforms. Persisting erosive lines - indicators of the uppermost flooded level - are carved into surficial deposits in the hillsides and are found as high as 80-90 m above the modern valley floor. By using the indicators as an upper flood boundary, we have computed cross-sectional profiles showing that the flood in some reaches inundated more than 120 000 m2 of the valley. Large, streamlined bed forms, which we interpret as flood bars, drape sections of the valley floor, some several kilometers long. The most morphologically striking - pendant bars - are developed behind flood flow projections, such as bedrock knolls or in lee of a valley bend. Flood bars occur in the entire study area, but are more widespread in the north and generally decrease in size moving in a downstream direction. Kettle holes and ice-block obstacle marks from icebergs arrested during the flood are common. These features support the theory of a catastrophic drainage event, but also indicate a pattern of differential erosion and deposition that allowed us to interpret palaeoflow on individual bars. Vast aeolian dune fields in the region are interpreted as a secondary product of the flood, as deposits related to the event were mobilised by northerly winds momentarily after the flood waned. The dune fields cover an excess of 50 km2 and reveal that the region was a highly active periglacial desert after the flood. Our mapping

Automatically detecting Himalayan Glacial Lake Outburst Floods in LANDSAT time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veh, Georg; Korup, Oliver; Roessner, Sigrid; Walz, Ariane

2017-04-01

More than 5,000 meltwater lakes currently exist in the Himalayas, and some of them have grown rapidly in past decades due to glacial retreat. This trend might raise the risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs), which have caused catastrophic damage and several hundred fatalities in historic time. Yet the growing number and size of Himalayan glacial lakes have no detectable counterpart in increasing GLOF frequency. Only 35 events are documented in detail since the 1950s, mostly in the Himalayas of Eastern Nepal and Bhutan. Observations are sparse in the far eastern and totally missing in the northwestern parts of the mountain belt. The GLOF record is prone to a censoring bias, such that mainly larger floods or flood impacts have been registered. Thus, establishing a more complete record and learning from past GLOFs is essential for hazard assessment and regional planning. To detect previously unreported GLOFs in the Himalayas, we developed an automated processing chain for generating GLOF related surface-cover time series from LANDSAT data. We downloaded more than 5,000 available LANDSAT TM, ETM+ and OLI images from 1987 to present. We trained a supervised machine-learning classifier with >4,000 randomly selected image pixels and topographic variables derived from digital topographic data (SRTM and ALOS DEMs), defining water, sediment, shadow, clouds, and ice as the five main classes. We hypothesize that GLOFs significantly decrease glacial lake area while increasing the amount of sediment cover in the channel network downstream simultaneously. Thus we excluded shadows, clouds, and lake ice from the analysis. We derived surface cover maps from the fitted model for each satellite image and compiled a pixelwise time-series stack. Customized rule sets were applied to systematically remove misclassifications and to check for a sediment fan in the flow path downstream of the former lake pixels. We verified our mapping approach on thirteen GLOFs documented in the

Monitoring of Bashkara glacial lakes (the Central Caucasus) and modelling of their potential outburst.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krylenko, I.; Norin, S.; Petrakov, D.; Tutubalina, O.; Chernomorets, S.

2009-04-01

In recent decades due to glacier retreat the glacial lakes in the Central Caucasus, as well as in other high-mountainous areas of the world, have expanded intensively. As result the risk of lake outbursts and destructive floods is raising. In this paper we present one of the most potentially hazardous lakes of this region - a group of glacial lakes near the Bashkara glacier in the upper Adylsu river valley, to the southeast of Mt. Elbrus. Total area of these lakes is about 100,000m2, and a total volume exceeds 1,000,000 m3. The biggest of them - the Bashkara lake has formed in late 1930s - early 1940s and the small Lapa lake has appeared in the end of 1980s. The Bashkara lake outburst occurred twice in the end of 1950s and produced devastating debris flows of ca. 2 million m3. We have monitored these lakes since 1999. Our work includes detailed field research: constant measurements of water level during warm period, annually repeated bathymetric surveys, geodetic surveys, observations on dam condition and some special measurements (i.e. water temperature distribution, current velocity). Also we use aerial and satellite images to obtain data about dynamic of areas for the lakes. From 2001 to 2006 years volume of the Lapa lake has increased 5 times (from 30,000 m3 to 140,000 m3), the Bashkara lake in this period was quasi-stable. In 2006-2008 volume of the Lapa lake has decreased due to sedimentation, however, rapid growth of water level in Bashkara lake (more than 20 sm. per day) has suddenly begun. As a result, volume of the Bashkara lake exceeded 1,000000 m3 in July 2008 whereas in 2001 -2007 year it was about 800,000 m3. Previous maximum of water level was exceeded on 3,5 m, moraine dam with ice core was overtopped and overflow has started. Thus, Bashkara glacier lakes are unstable and risk of outburst is increasing. To assess parameters and zones of potential outburst flood in the Adylsu River valley we have carried out hydrodynamic simulation. Two computer

Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Risk in Nepal and Their Mitigation Practices in Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gurung, S.

2017-12-01

Glacial lakes in Nepal face a huge risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) due to the ongoing effects of climate change leading to considerable amount of snow and glacier melt thus weakening the natural barriers holding these high altitude glacial lakes. Nepal is at an ever growing risk every year and always waiting for an inevitable natural disaster. Since GLOF can cause extreme huge loss of human lives and physical properties, it has now become very important to design a proper mechanism which helps in reducing hazards from such events. There is little we can do to stop natural disasters, but we can implement pro-active control measures to minimize the loss. Early Warning System is the provision of timely and effective information, which allows individuals exposed to hazards to take action, avoid or reduce risk to life and property and prepare for effective response. The basic idea behind Early Warning System is that, the earlier and more accurately we are able to predict potential risks associated with natural hazards especially flood, the more likely we will be able to manage and mitigate the disasters' impact on society, economies and environment. We are currently focused on the development of early warning system for Imja Glacial Lake. The objective of developing early warning system for Imja GLOF is to help reduce economic losses and mitigate the number of injuries or deaths by providing information that allows individuals and communities downstream of Imja Lake to protect their lives and properties by using the latest and most advanced technology available. We have installed one Automatic Weather Station near the left lateral moraine of Imja Lake to study the effects of different meteorological parameters so as to predict occurrence of any GLOF event. The sensor includes pluviometer, pyranometer, temperature and humidity sensor, wind sensor, Snowdepth sensor. Two radar level sensors are installed at the outlet of Imja Lake and downstream of Imja river

Glaciers, Glacial lakes and Glacial Lake Outburst Floods in the Koshi Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shrestha, F.; Gao, X.; Khanal, N. R.; Maharjan, S. B.; Bajracharya, S. R.; Shrestha, R. B.; Lizong, W.; Mool, P. K.

2016-12-01

had local effects less than 40 km downstream from the lake and the remaining had long distance downstream impacts. Some of the GLOF events that occurred on the north side in China had impacts far downstream in Nepal. Hence, the intensive monitoring of glacial lakes, modelling of outburst floods and vulnerability assessment, and capacity building for GLOF risk management are recommended to manage and mitigate these risk.

Glacial lake inventory and lake outburst potential in Uzbekistan.

PubMed

Petrov, Maxim A; Sabitov, Timur Y; Tomashevskaya, Irina G; Glazirin, Gleb E; Chernomorets, Sergey S; Savernyuk, Elena A; Tutubalina, Olga V; Petrakov, Dmitriy A; Sokolov, Leonid S; Dokukin, Mikhail D; Mountrakis, Giorgos; Ruiz-Villanueva, Virginia; Stoffel, Markus

2017-08-15

Climate change has been shown to increase the number of mountain lakes across various mountain ranges in the World. In Central Asia, and in particular on the territory of Uzbekistan, a detailed assessment of glacier lakes and their evolution over time is, however lacking. For this reason we created the first detailed inventory of mountain lakes of Uzbekistan based on recent (2002-2014) satellite observations using WorldView-2, SPOT5, and IKONOS imagery with a spatial resolution from 2 to 10m. This record was complemented with data from field studies of the last 50years. The previous data were mostly in the form of inventories of lakes, available in Soviet archives, and primarily included localized in-situ data. The inventory of mountain lakes presented here, by contrast, includes an overview of all lakes of the territory of Uzbekistan. Lakes were considered if they were located at altitudes above 1500m and if lakes had an area exceeding 100m 2 . As in other mountain regions of the World, the ongoing increase of air temperatures has led to an increase in lake number and area. Moreover, the frequency and overall number of lake outburst events have been on the rise as well. Therefore, we also present the first outburst assessment with an updated version of well-known approaches considering local climate features and event histories. As a result, out of the 242 lakes identified on the territory of Uzbekistan, 15% are considered prone to outburst, 10% of these lakes have been assigned low outburst potential and the remainder of the lakes have an average level of outburst potential. We conclude that the distribution of lakes by elevation shows a significant influence on lake area and hazard potential. No significant differences, by contrast, exist between the distribution of lake area, outburst potential, and lake location with respect to glaciers by regions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Numerical modelling of glacial lake outburst floods using physically based dam-breach models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westoby, M. J.; Brasington, J.; Glasser, N. F.; Hambrey, M. J.; Reynolds, J. M.; Hassan, M. A. A. M.; Lowe, A.

2015-03-01

The instability of moraine-dammed proglacial lakes creates the potential for catastrophic glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) in high-mountain regions. In this research, we use a unique combination of numerical dam-breach and two-dimensional hydrodynamic modelling, employed within a generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) framework, to quantify predictive uncertainty in model outputs associated with a reconstruction of the Dig Tsho failure in Nepal. Monte Carlo analysis was used to sample the model parameter space, and morphological descriptors of the moraine breach were used to evaluate model performance. Multiple breach scenarios were produced by differing parameter ensembles associated with a range of breach initiation mechanisms, including overtopping waves and mechanical failure of the dam face. The material roughness coefficient was found to exert a dominant influence over model performance. The downstream routing of scenario-specific breach hydrographs revealed significant differences in the timing and extent of inundation. A GLUE-based methodology for constructing probabilistic maps of inundation extent, flow depth, and hazard is presented and provides a useful tool for communicating uncertainty in GLOF hazard assessment.

Hazard Assessment of Glacial Lake Outburst Flood and Potential of ICTs for Coping: A Case of Eastern Himalaya of Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhattarai, D. R.; Pradhananga, D.

2014-12-01

Alarming rate of retreat of glaciers and formation of glacial lakes in higher elevation of Nepal Himalaya has been reported to be related with the pronounced atmospheric temperature rise in the region. Glacier Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF) are the growing climate induced hazards in the Himalaya increasing the vulnerability of community living in the mountain valley, and the fragile ecosystem. This study tried to come up with the potential impacts from glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) in highland of eastern region of Nepal and potential role of Information Communication Technologies (ICT) in coping. I analyzed the trend of climatic pattern (temperature and precipitation) of the Eastern Himalaya Region of Nepal available from Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM), Government of Nepal, and also prepared the latest location map of the glacial lakes using google earth and ArcGIS application in the highland of the Kanchanjungha Conservation Area of the region. Tiptala glacial lake, located at an elevation of 4950 masl, within the conservation area, was selected for the GLOF hazard assessment. I used semi-structured questioner survey and key informants interviews in the community living below the lake in the highland of the study area in order to assess the potential hazard of GLOF. Analysis shows the increasing trend of atmospheric temperature in the region. With the varying sizes, 46 glacial lakes were located in the region, which covers over 2.57 sq. km in total. Though the larger portion of the downstream area of the Tiptala glacial lake fall in the remote location away from major residential area, few villages, major pasture lands for Yaks, foot trails, and several bridges across the Tamor River below the lake are in risk of GLOF. Poor access due to extreme geographical remoteness and capacity to afford the modern technologies in the community is seen as the major limiting factor to the knowledge and information about the climate change and related impacts

Evaluation of an early warning system for glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) events in Huaraz, Peru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKinney, D. C.; Somos-Valenzuela, M. A.

2014-12-01

People in Cordillera Blanca range in Peru have a long history dealing with natural disasters associated to high mountains; particularly Glacier Lakes Outburst Flood (GLOF). Examples in the Cordillera Blanca vary from a GLOF that occurred in 1941 that killed more than 5000 people in the city of Huaraz to recent events from Lake Artison Baja in 2012 and Lake 513 on 2010, which were not devastating thanks to safety systems previously installed in those lakes. However, glaciers continue melting leaving new lakes or changing the characteristics of lakes that were previously controlled making safety systems obsolete that worked successfully in the past protecting communities downstream. Lake Palcacocha has evolved from being safe after the installation of a safety system in 1970 to an imminent source of GLOF risk due to the expansion that has occurred during the last 40 years increasing from a volume of 500,000 to 17 million m3. In response to this risk the community in Huaraz is planning an Early Warning System (EWS) that will allow the population to mobilize to a safe area in case a GLOF occurs. In this work we present an adaptation of the LifeSIM model to calculate the benefits from such an EWS using 2007 census data and a FLO-2D flood simulation model. The outputs are the number of people in Huaraz that could lose their life due to a GLOF. Our results indicate that without an EWS around 19,773 people could lose their life; whereas, if an EWS is installed the number of victims reduces to 7344. Finally, if mobilization of the affected population is improved the value reduces to 2865. The results show the importance of the EWS as well as informing and training the population to how to react if a GLOF occurs.

Glacier Dynamics and Outburst Flood Potential from the Imja and Thulagi Glacier-Lake Systems (Nepal)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kargel, Jeffrey; Leonard, Gregory; Regmi, Dhananjay; Haritashya, Umesh; Chand, Mohan; Pradhan, Suresh; Sapkota, Nawaraj; Byers, Alton; Joshi, Sharad; McKinney, Daene; Mool, Pradeep; Somos-Valenzuela, Marcelo; Huggel, Christian

2015-04-01

Thulagi and Imja lakes are, according to ICIMOD, among Nepal's most dangerous glacier lakes, i.e., most likely to cause death and destruction in case of a glacier lake outburst flood (GLOF). Imja Lake and the associated Imja and Lhoste-Shar glaciers have been intensively studied; Thulagi Glacier and its lake are much less studied. Collectively, we have undertaken a series of increasingly thorough bathymetric and land surveys and satellite remote sensing analyses of Imja Lake and its glacier setting. We are analyzing several expeditions' data to build a detailed assessment of the glacier and lake to better establish the dynamical evolution of the system and its future GLOF potential. Our most recent, most complete bathymetric survey of Imja Lake has revealed a much greater volume (75,200,000 cubic meters) and maximum depth (149.8 m) than found before. Our analysis suggests that not all possible Imja GLOF scenarios would result in devastation. Some moraine melt-through or down-cutting mechanisms -- perhaps induced by extreme monsoon precipitation or an earthquake -- could generate outbursts lasting from 10,000-100,000 seconds ("slow GLOFs"), thus limiting peak flows and downstream damage. The potential damage from a slow GLOF from Imja Lake -- even if there is a large total volume -- is lessened by the relatively low peak discharge and because the major villages downstream from Imja Lake are situated just outside of and above a deep, broad outwash and debris-flow channel system. Imja and other glaciers in the area have built a large fan, now deeply trenched, which is able to accommodate the peak discharges of potential slow GLOFs, such that Dingboche and other villages would be spared. However, local geomorphology also bears evidence of "fast GLOFs," such as may be issued by a tsunami, which could be initiated by a large mass movement into Imja Lake and which might override and damage the end moraine in <100 seconds. Dingboche and other villages are vulnerable to

The Role of Climatic Conditions in Controlling Observed Variability of Timing and Peak Discharge of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods: Lago Cachet Dos, Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacquet, J.; McCoy, S. W.; McGrath, D.; Nimick, D.; Friesen, B.; Fahey, M. J.; Leidich, J.; Okuinghttons, J.

2016-12-01

The sudden release of water from an ice-dammed lake poses substantial hazard to the downstream environment, but predicting the timing and magnitude of such an event is difficult. We use a series of high-resolution discharge measurements from a glacier-dammed lake, Lago Cachet Dos (LC2), during outburst events to evaluate the environmental conditions that influence the timing of initiation and peak discharge of observed glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). Since April 2008, 20 GLOFs have initiated out of LC2, located on the eastern edge of the Northern Patagonia Icefield, Chile and flooded areas along the Rio Colonia- Rio Baker system. GLOF frequency has averaged 2-3 events annually and peak discharges exiting LC2 have ranged widely from 2,000 to >15,000 m3 s-1. Although some LC2 GLOFs are consistent with global compilations relating peak discharge to lake volume, large deviations from the global trend and large intra-event variability are striking and call into question the predictive ability of simple empirical scaling equations. To evaluate the environmental conditions that lead to variability in observed peak discharge, we use a variation of the theoretical model of Nye (1976), which describes the process of englacial conduit evolution as a competition between thermally induced conduit growth and viscous flow of ice causing conduit collapse. We show that, consistent with theory, initial lake volume, lake temperature, and the rate of meltwater input into the glacially dammed lake all influence the peak discharge of measured GLOFs. Consequently, evolving climatic conditions of a region can greatly influence the potential hazard of GLOFs. Our results suggest that more accurate predictions of GLOF timing and magnitude from ice dammed lakes can be made by incorporating additional measurements of environmental conditions.

Glacier lake outburst floods caused by glacier shrinkage: case study of Ala-Archa valley, Kyrgyz Ala Too, northern Tian Shan, Kyrgyzstan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrakov, D.; Erochin, S. A.; Harbor, J.; Ivanov, M.; Rogozhina, I.; Stroeven, A. P.; Usubaliev, R.

2012-12-01

Changes in glacier extent and runoff in Central Asia increase socio-economic stress and may result in political conflict between donors of freshwater (Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan) and recipients of freshwater (Uzbekistan, China). Glaciers in the Pamir and Tian Shan regions have experienced an unprecedented downwasting due to regional climate changes over the past decades. This is because air temperature increases are in some areas accompanied by a decrease in precipitation. Such conditions have already resulted in a reduction of glacier runoff, especially in the northern and western Tian Shan, and an increase of the number and area of glacial lakes in Kyrgyzstan. Even though glacial lakes in the mountains are in general relatively small and located far from densely populated areas, their outbursts often produce destructive debris flows. Such debris flows are especially common in Kyrgyzstan because of its steep river channels and abundance of Holocene and Quaternary glacier deposits that can be remobilized. The glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) in the Shakhimardan river catchment in 1999, for example, resulted in 100 fatalities in Uzbekistan, and the GLOF from the Zyndan glacial lake led to substantial economic losses in 2009. According to the latest inventory, there are more than 350 glacial lakes in Kyrgyzstan of which about 70 occur in the Kyrgyz Ala Too. The Ala-Archa valley is among the most important glacierized catchments in Kyrgyzstan. Despite the presence of a relatively small glacier-covered area of 36 km2, the Ala-Archa river is of critical importance to the Bishkek area, its agriculture, and its population which currently exceeds one million. GLOFs are therefore a threat to both numerous settlements of touristic value in the Ala-Archa headwaters and to Bishkek. The Teztor lake in the Adygene catchment of the Ala-Archa river system experienced an outburst during 1988 and 2005. On the early morning of July 31, 2012, this lake began draining through a dam

Reconstruction of a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) in the Engaño Valley, Chilean Patagonia: Lessons for GLOF risk management.

PubMed

Anacona, Pablo Iribarren; Mackintosh, Andrew; Norton, Kevin

2015-09-15

Floods from moraine-dammed lake failures can have long standing effects not only on riverine landscapes but also on mountain communities due to the high intensity (i.e. great depth and high velocities) and damaging capacity of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). GLOFs may increase in frequency as glaciers retreat and new lakes develop and there is an urgent need to better understand GLOF dynamics and the measures required to reduce their negative outcomes. In Patagonia at least 16 moraine-dammed lakes have failed in historic time, however, data about GLOF dynamics and impacts in this region are limited. We reconstruct a GLOF that affected a small village in Chilean Patagonia in March 1977, by semi structured interviews, interpretation of satellite images and 2D hydraulic modelling. This provides insight into the GLOF dynamics and the planning issues that led to socioeconomic consequences, which included village relocation. Modelling shows that the water released by the GLOF was in the order of 12-13 × 10(6)m(3) and the flood lasted for about 10h, reaching a maximum depth of ~1.5m in Bahía Murta Viejo, ~ 26 km from the failed lake. The lake had characteristics in common with failed lakes worldwide (e.g. the lake was in contact with a retreating glacier and was dammed by a narrow-steep moraine). The absence of land-use planning and the unawareness of the GLOF hazard contributed to the village flooding. The Río Engaño GLOF illustrates how small-scale and short-distance migration is a reasonable coping strategy in response to a natural hazard that may increase in frequency as atmospheric temperature rises and glaciers retreat. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mendenhall Glacier (Juneau, Alaska) icequake seismicity and its relationship to the 2012 outburst flood and other environmental forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morgan, P. M.; Walter, J. I.; Peng, Z.; Amundson, J. M.; Meng, X.

2013-12-01

Glacial outburst floods occur when ice-dammed lakes or other reservoirs on the glacier release large volumes of water usually due to the failure of an ice dam. In 2011 and 2012 these types of floods have occurred at Mendenhall Glacier in Southeast Alaska, 15 km northwest of Juneau. The floods emanated from a lake within a remnant branch of Mendenhall Glacier, called Suicide Basin, and rapidly changed the levels of Mendenhall Lake. Homes on the shore of Mendenhall Lake were threatened by rapidly rising lake levels during such floods. We analyze data from a set of 4 short and broadband period seismometers placed in ice-boreholes in an array on Mendenhall Glacier for a period of 4 months in 2012. We also examine the outburst flood that occurred between July 4th and 8th 2012. We first manually pick icequakes as high-frequency bursts recorded by at least two stations. Next, we use a matched-filter technique to help complete the icequake record by detecting missed events with similar waveforms to those hand-picked events. While high-frequency noise was present during the flooding, the impulsive icequake activity did not appear to be modulated significantly during periods of flooding, suggesting that the flooding does not significantly deform the overlying ice. Impulsive icequake activity appears to show strongly diurnal periodicity, indicating that the icequakes were mainly caused by expansion/contraction of ice during daytime. We also analyze the activity in concert with GPS velocity and meteorological data from the area. By analyzing the temporal and spatial patterns of the events we hope to reveal more about the fundamental processes occurring beneath Mendenhall Glacier.

GLOFs in the WOS: bibliometrics, geographies and global trends of research on glacial lake outburst floods (Web of Science, 1979-2016)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emmer, Adam

2018-03-01

Research on glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) - specific low-frequency, high-magnitude floods originating in glacial lakes, including jökulhlaups - is well justified in the context of glacier ice loss and glacial lake evolution in glacierized areas all over the world. Increasing GLOF research activities, which are documented by the increasing number of published research items, have been observed in the past few decades; however, comprehensive insight into the GLOF research community, its global bibliometrics, geographies and trends in research is missing. To fill this gap, a set of 892 GLOF research items published in the Web of Science database covering the period 1979-2016 was analysed. General bibliometric characteristics, citations and references were analysed, revealing a certain change in the publishing paradigm over time. Furthermore, the global geographies of research on GLOFs were studied, focusing on (i) where GLOFs are studied, (ii) who studies GLOFs, (iii) the export of research on GLOFs and (iv) international collaboration. The observed trends and links to the challenges ahead are discussed and placed in a broader context.

Multi-sensor detection of glacial lake outburst floods in Greenland from space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Citterio, M.

2015-12-01

GLOFs cause substantial erosion, transport and delivery of sediment along the river system from the glaciated parts of the hydrologic catchment to the sea, and have been found to control the riverine export dynamics of some pollutants like mercury in NE Greenland. GLOFs also pose a risk to human presence and infrastracture. Ice-dammed lakes at the margin of the ice sheet and of local glaciers and ice caps are common features of Greenland's landscape. The occasional or periodic emptying of some of these lakes have been described as early as the 18thcentury. Thinning glaciers in a warming climate are already changing the behaviour of some of these lakes. However, little is known of the frequency and seasonality of glacier lake outburst floods (GLOF) outside of the relatively more densely populated parts of West and South Greenland. This contribution demonstrates automatic multi-sensor detection of ice-dammed lake emptying events from space for three test regions in West, South and Northeast Greenland, using visible imagery from Landsat, ASTER, PROBA-V and MODIS. The current detection algorithm relies on prior knowledge of lakes location and approximate shape from a topographic map at the scale of 1:250.000, and it is meant as a prototype for a future operational product. For the well documented case of the glacier-dammed lake of A.P. Olsen Ice Cap (NE Greenland), where GLOF's observations at Zackenberg Research Station started in 1996, the remote sensing and in situ records are compared, showing good agreement. ICESat altimetry, MODIS and AVHRR thermal imagery, and the ENVISAR ASAR signature of two detected GLOFs that took place late autumn and winter are also discussed to demonstrate the potential for successful retrievals during the polar night. The upcoming Sentinel-3 missions will alleviate what is currently the major drawback of implementing this prototype into an operational service, namely the limited availability of high resolution imagery. This is of special

Using seismic arrays to quantify the physics of a glacial outburst flood and its legacy on upland river dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gimbert, Florent; Cook, Kristen; Andermann, Christoff; Hovius, Niels; Turowski, Jens

2017-04-01

In the Himalayas fluvial erosion is thought to be controlled by the intense annual Indian Summer Monsoon precipitation. However, this region is also exposed to catastrophic floods generated by the sudden failure of landslides or moraine dams. These floods are rare and particularly devastating. Thus they have a strong impact on rivers and adjacent hillslopes, and they represent a hazard for local populations. Due to the difficulties to observe these floods and quantify their physics using traditional methods, their importance for the long-term evolution of Himalayan Rivers remains largely unknown, and no consistent early warning system exists to anticipate these events, especially in trans-boundary regions. Here we show that seismic arrays can be used to (i) reliably anticipate outburst floods and to (ii) quantify multiple and key fluvial processes associated with their propagation and their lasting impacts on upland river dynamics. We report unique seismic observations of a glacial lake outburst flood event that occurred the 5th of July 2016 in the Bhote Koshi River (Central Nepal). Precursory seismic signals are identified from the onset of the lake drainage event such that an early warning alarm may be turned on about an hour before the outburst flood wave reaches areas with an exposed population. Using our network of stations we observe for the first time that the outburst flood wave is in fact made of two distinct waves, namely a water flow wave and a bedload sediment wave. As expected these two waves travel at different speeds. We find that the ratio between the two wave speeds matches with that previously found at much smaller scales in flume laboratory experiments. Based on the physical modelling of both water-flow- and bedload- induced seismic noise we provide estimates of flow depth and bedload transport characteristics (flux, moving grains sizes) prior, during and after the flood. In particular we show that bedload sediment flux is enhanced by up to a

Vulnerability assessment of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods using Remote Sensing and GIS in North Sikkim (India), Eastern Himalaya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aggarwal, Suruchi; Probha Devi, Juna; Thakur, Praveen Kumar; Rai, Suresh Chand

2016-04-01

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) occur when glacier melt water dammed by a moraine is released in short time. Such floods may lead to disastrous events posing, therefore, a huge threat to human lives and infrastructure. A devastating GLOF in Uttarakhand, India, on 17 July 2013 has led to the loss of all villages in a stretch of 18 km downstream the lake and the loss of more than 5000 lives. The present study evaluates all 16 glacial lakes (with an area >0.1 km²) in the Thangu valley, northern Sikkim (India), eastern Himalaya, with respect to potential threats for the downstream areas. The hazard criteria for the study include slope, aspect and distance of the respective parent glacier, change in the lake area, dam characteristics and lake depth. For the most hazardous lakes, the socio-economic conditions in the downstream areas (settlements and infrastructure) are analysed regarding the impact of potential GLOFs. For the vulnerability analysis, we used various satellite products including LANDSAT, RESOUCESAT-1 and 2, RISAT-1 imageries and ASTER GDEM covering the period from 1977 to 2014. For lake mapping, we applied the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the Normalized Difference Snow Index (NDSI). A Land Use Land Cover (LULC) map of the study area showing in-situ observations is serving as driving factor for the vulnerability analysis. The results of the study show that almost all evaluated glacial lakes were expanding during the study period (1977-2014). Combining the hazard criteria for the lakes, 5 of the 16 studied glacial lakes are identified as highly hazardous. In the downstream area, there are two villages with 200 inhabitants and an army camp within the zone of highest vulnerability. The identified vulnerability zones may be used by the local authorities to take caution of the threatened villages and infrastructure and for risk analysis for planned future hydropower plants.

Assessing downstream flood impacts due to a potential GLOF from Imja Lake in Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Somos-Valenzuela, M. A.; McKinney, D. C.; Byers, A. C.; Rounce, D. R.; Portocarrero, C.; Lamsal, D.

2014-11-01

Glacial-dominated areas pose unique challenges to downstream communities in adapting to recent and continuing global climate change, including increased threats of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) that can increase risk due to flooding of downstream communities and cause substantial impacts on regional social, environmental and economic systems. The Imja glacial lake in Nepal, with potential to generate a GLOF, was studied using a two-dimensional debris flow inundation model in order to evaluate the effectiveness of proposed measures to reduce possible flooding impacts to downstream communities by lowering the lake level. The results indicate that only minor flood impact reduction is achieved in the downstream community of Dingboche with modest (~3 m) lake lowering. Lowering the lake by 10 m shows a significant reduction in inundated area. However, lowering the lake by 20 m almost eliminates all flood impact at Dingboche. Further downstream at Phakding, the impact of the GLOF is significant and similar reductions in inundation are likely as a result of lake lowering.

Pleistocene lake outburst floods and fan formation along the eastern Sierra Nevada, California: implications for the interpretation of intermontane lacustrine records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benn, Douglas I.; Owen, Lewis A.; Finkel, Robert C.; Clemmens, Samuel

2006-11-01

Variations in the rock flour fraction in intermontane lacustrine sediments have the potential to provide more complete records of glacier fluctuations than moraine sequences, which are subject to erosional censoring. Construction of glacial chronologies from such records relies on the assumption that rock flour concentration is a simple function of glacier extent. However, other factors may influence the delivery of glacigenic sediments to intermontane lakes, including paraglacial adjustment of slope and fluvial systems to deglaciation, variations in precipitation and snowmelt, and lake outburst floods. We have investigated the processes and chronology of sediment transport on the Tuttle and Lone Pine alluvial fans in the eastern Sierra Nevada, California, USA, to elucidate the links between former glacier systems located upstream and the long sedimentary record from Owens Lake located downstream. Aggradation of both fans reflects sedimentation by three contrasting process regimes: (1) high magnitude, catastrophic floods, (2) fluvial or glacifluvial river systems, and (3) debris flows and other slope processes. Flood deposits are represented by multiple boulder beds exposed in section, and extensive networks of large palaeochannels and boulder deposits on both fan surfaces. Palaeohydrological analysis implies peak discharges in the order of 10 3-10 4 m 3 s -1, most probably as the result of catastrophic drainage of ice-, moraine-, and landslide-dammed lakes. Cosmogenic radionuclide surface exposure dating shows that at least three flood events are represented on each fan, at 9-13, 16-18 and 32-44 ka (Tuttle Fan); and at ˜23-32, ˜80-86 ka, and a poorly constrained older event (Lone Pine Fan). Gravels and sands exposed in both fans represent fluvial and/or glacifluvial sediment transport from the Sierra Nevada into Owens Valley, and show that river systems incised and reworked older sediment stored in the fans. We argue that millennial-scale peaks in rock flour

Impacts of the 2016 outburst flood on the Bhote Koshi River valley, central Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, Kristen; Andermann, Christoff; Gimbert, Florent; Hovius, Niels; Adhikari, Basanta

2017-04-01

The central Nepal Himalaya is a region of rapid erosion where fluvial processes are largely driven by the annual Indian Summer Monsoon, which delivers up to several meters of precipitation each year. However, the rivers in this region are also subject to rare catastrophic floods caused by the sudden failure of landslide or moraine dams. Because these floods happen rarely, it has been difficult to isolate their impact on the rivers and adjacent hillslopes, and their importance for the long-term evolution of Himalayan rivers is poorly constrained. On the 5th of July, 2016, the Bhote Koshi River in central Nepal was hit by a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF). The flood passed through a seismic and hydrological observatory installed along the river in June 2015, and we have used the resulting data to constrain the timing, duration, and bedload transport properties of the outburst flood. The impact of the flood on the river can be further observed with hourly time-lapse photographs, daily measurements of suspended sediment load, repeat lidar surveys, and satellite imagery. Overall, our observatory data span two monsoon seasons, allowing us to evaluate the impacts of the outburst flood relative to the annual monsoon flood. The outburst flood affected the river on several timescales. In the short term, it transported large amounts of coarse sediment and restructured the river bed during the hours of the flood pulse itself. Over intermediate timescales it resulted in elevated bedload and suspended load transport for several weeks following the flood. Over longer timescales the flood undercut and destabilized the river banks and hillslopes in a number of locations, leading to bank collapses, slumps, and landslides. We map changes in the channel and associated mass wasting using rapidEye imagery from Oct. 2015 and Oct. 2016. We also use repeat terrestrial lidar scans to quantify the magnitude of change in multiple locations along the river channel and to measure bank

A global assessment of the societal impacts of glacier outburst floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carrivick, Jonathan L.; Tweed, Fiona S.

2016-09-01

Glacier outburst floods are sudden releases of large amounts of water from a glacier. They are a pervasive natural hazard worldwide. They have an association with climate primarily via glacier mass balance and their impacts on society partly depend on population pressure and land use. Given the ongoing changes in climate and land use and population distributions there is therefore an urgent need to discriminate the spatio-temporal patterning of glacier outburst floods and their impacts. This study presents data compiled from 20 countries and comprising 1348 glacier floods spanning 10 centuries. Societal impacts were assessed using a relative damage index based on recorded deaths, evacuations, and property and infrastructure destruction and disruption. These floods originated from 332 sites; 70% were from ice-dammed lakes and 36% had recorded societal impact. The number of floods recorded has apparently reduced since the mid-1990s in all major world regions. Two thirds of sites that have produced > 5 floods (n = 32) have floods occurring progressively earlier in the year. Glacier floods have directly caused at least: 7 deaths in Iceland, 393 deaths in the European Alps, 5745 deaths in South America and 6300 deaths in central Asia. Peru, Nepal and India have experienced fewer floods yet higher levels of damage. One in five sites in the European Alps has produced floods that have damaged farmland, destroyed homes and damaged bridges; 10% of sites in South America have produced glacier floods that have killed people and damaged infrastructure; 15% of sites in central Asia have produced floods that have inundated farmland, destroyed homes, damaged roads and damaged infrastructure. Overall, Bhutan and Nepal have the greatest national-level economic consequences of glacier flood impacts. We recommend that accurate, full and standardised monitoring, recording and reporting of glacier floods is essential if spatio-temporal patterns in glacier flood occurrence, magnitude and

Climate change and diverse dimensions of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs): Lake Palcacocha case study, Peru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emmer, Adam; Walker-Crawford, Noah; Carey, Mark; Huggel, Christian; Verheyen, Roda; Wallimann-Helmer, Ivo

2017-04-01

Post-Little Ice Age (LIA) climate change has led to worldwide glacier retreat, formation and evolution of glacial lakes, occasionally followed by glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs). Hundreds of GLOFs are documented throughout the 20th and 21st century, of which a certain number that caused massive downstream destruction and up to thousands of lives lost. Management of GLOF hazards and risks has typically been a local concern, focusing on the implementation of specific technical and engineering measures. Recently, however, researchers have realized that the complexity of both the risks and the socio-environmental context requires a broader understanding and response beyond the more typical local perception and management. The growing cumulative greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, for instance, increase the anthropogenic contribution to glacier retreat, lake formation and growth and eventually to GLOF. GLOF hazard and risk management is inherently linked to the global scale from this perspective. It implies that additional important dimensions enter the debate, including ethical and legal questions about the responsibility for damage and loss due to GLOFs. Here we analyze the conditions at an emblematic case in Peru's Cordillera Blanca, which has made international headlines repeatedly since it first generated one of the world's most deadly GLOFs in 1941 to its present-day growth and instability. Situated upstream from the regional center of Huaráz (population ˜120,000), Lake Palcacocha has attracted significant attention in recent years within Peru and at an international level. Perspectives on Palcacocha lack truly cross-disciplinary research, missing more comprehensive insight. This contribution is unique for its analysis of diverse dimensions, which also provide a framework for other GLOF hazard, risk, and climate-related studies. The main aim of this constribution is to understand the links between them, their drivers and inhibitors. Four dimensions were studied

An improved method to represent DEM uncertainty in glacial lake outburst flood propagation using stochastic simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watson, Cameron S.; Carrivick, Jonathan; Quincey, Duncan

2015-10-01

Modelling glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) or 'jökulhlaups', necessarily involves the propagation of large and often stochastic uncertainties throughout the source to impact process chain. Since flood routing is primarily a function of underlying topography, communication of digital elevation model (DEM) uncertainty should accompany such modelling efforts. Here, a new stochastic first-pass assessment technique was evaluated against an existing GIS-based model and an existing 1D hydrodynamic model, using three DEMs with different spatial resolution. The analysis revealed the effect of DEM uncertainty and model choice on several flood parameters and on the prediction of socio-economic impacts. Our new model, which we call MC-LCP (Monte Carlo Least Cost Path) and which is distributed in the supplementary information, demonstrated enhanced 'stability' when compared to the two existing methods, and this 'stability' was independent of DEM choice. The MC-LCP model outputs an uncertainty continuum within its extent, from which relative socio-economic risk can be evaluated. In a comparison of all DEM and model combinations, the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) DEM exhibited fewer artefacts compared to those with the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer Global Digital Elevation Model (ASTER GDEM), and were comparable to those with a finer resolution Advanced Land Observing Satellite Panchromatic Remote-sensing Instrument for Stereo Mapping (ALOS PRISM) derived DEM. Overall, we contend that the variability we find between flood routing model results suggests that consideration of DEM uncertainty and pre-processing methods is important when assessing flow routing and when evaluating potential socio-economic implications of a GLOF event. Incorporation of a stochastic variable provides an illustration of uncertainty that is important when modelling and communicating assessments of an inherently complex process.

Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Risk in Himachal Pradesh, India: An Integrative and Anticipatory Approach to Inform Adaptation Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, Simon; Linsbauer, Andreas; Huggel, Christian; Singh Randhawa, Surjeet

2016-04-01

Most research concerning the hazard from glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) has focused on the threat from lakes that have formed over the past century, and which continue to expand rapidly in response to recent warming of the climate system. However, attention is shifting towards the anticipation of future hazard and risk associated with new lakes that will develop as glaciers continue to retreat and dramatically different landscapes are uncovered. Nowhere will this threat be more pronounced than in the Himalaya, where the majority of the world's glaciers are found, and where the dynamics of nature interact closely with livelihoods and anthropogenic resources. Using the Indian Himalayan state of Himachal Pradesh (HP) as a case study, we combine a suite of GIS-based approaches to: 1)Implement a large-scale automated GLOF risk assessment within an integrative climate risk framework that recognizes both physical and socio-economic determining factors. 2)Expand the assessment beyond the current situation, to provide early anticipation of emerging GLOF hazard as new lakes form in response to further retreat of the Himalayan glaciers. Results clearly demonstrate a significant future increase in relative GLOF hazard levels across most Thesils of HP (administrative units), as the overall potential for GLOFs being triggered from mass movement of ice and rock avalanches increases, and as new GLOF paths affect additional land areas. Across most Thesils, the simulated increase in GLOF frequency is an order of magnitude larger than the simulated increase in GLOF affected area, as paths from newly formed glacial lakes generally tend to converge downstream within existing flood channels. In the Thesil of Kullu for example, we demonstrate a 7-fold increase in the probability of GLOF occurrence, and a 3-fold increase in the area affected by potential GLOF paths. In those situations where potential GLOFs from new lakes will flow primarily along existing flood paths, any

Recurring middle Pleistocene outburst floods in east-central Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Froese, D.G.; Smith, D.G.; Westgate, J.A.; Ager, T.A.; Preece, S.J.; Sandhu, A.; Enkin, R.J.; Weber, F.

2003-01-01

Recurring glacial outburst floods from the Yukon-Tanana Upland are inferred from sediments exposed along the Yukon River near the mouth of Charley River in east-central Alaska. Deposits range from imbricate gravel and granules indicating flow locally extending up the Yukon valley, to more distal sediments consisting of at least 10 couplets of planar sands, granules, and climbing ripples with up-valley paleocurrent indicators overlain by massive silt. An interglacial organic silt, occurring within the sequence, indicates at least two flood events are associated with an earlier glaciation, and at least three flood events are associated with a later glaciation which postdates the organic silt. A minimum age for the floods is provided by a glass fission track age of 560,000 ?? 80,000 yr on the GI tephra, which occurs 8 m above the flood beds. A maximum age of 780,000 yr for the floods is based on normal magnetic polarity of the sediments. These age constraints allow us to correlate the flood events to the early-middle Pleistocene. And further, the outburst floods indicate extensive glaciation of the Yukon-Tanana Upland during the early-middle Pleistocene, likely representing the most extensive Pleistocene glaciation of the area. ?? 2003 University of Washington. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Simulating Glacial Outburst Lake Releases for Suicide Basin, Mendenhall Glacier, Juneau, Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacobs, A. B.; Moran, T.; Hood, E. W.

2017-12-01

Glacial Lake outbursts from Suicide Basin are recent phenomenon first characterized in 2011. The 2014 event resulted in record river stage and moderate flooding on the Mendenhall River in Juneau. Recognizing that these events can adversely impact residential areas of Juneau's Mendenhall Valley, the Alaska-Pacific River Forecast Center developed a real-time modeling technique capable of forecasting the timing and magnitude of the flood-wave crest due to releases from Suicide Basin. The 2014 event was estimated at about 37,000 acre feet with water levels cresting within 36 hours from the time the flood wave hit Mendenhall Lake. Given the magnitude of possible impacts to the public, accurate hydrological forecasting is essential for public safety and Emergency Managers. However, the data needed to effectively forecast magnitudes of specific jökulhlaup events are limited. Estimating this event as related to river stage depended upon three variables: 1) the timing of the lag between Suicide Basin water level declines and the related rise of Mendenhall Lake, 2) continuous monitoring of Mendenhall Lake water levels, and 3) estimating the total water volume stored in Suicide Basin. Real-time modeling of the event utilized a Time of Concentration hydrograph with independent power equations representing the rising and falling limbs of the hydrograph. The initial accuracy of the model — as forecasted about 24 hours prior to crest — resulted in an estimated crest within 0.5 feet of the actual with a timing error of about six hours later than the actual crest.

Peak discharge of a Pleistocene lava-dam outburst flood in Grand Canyon, Arizona, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fenton, C.R.; Webb, R.H.; Cerling, T.E.

2006-01-01

The failure of a lava dam 165,000 yr ago produced the largest known flood on the Colorado River in Grand Canyon. The Hyaloclastite Dam was up to 366 m high, and geochemical evidence linked this structure to outburst-flood deposits that occurred for 32 km downstream. Using the Hyaloclastite outburst-flood deposits as paleostage indicators, we used dam-failure and unsteady flow modeling to estimate a peak discharge and flow hydrograph. Failure of the Hyaloclastite Dam released a maximum 11 ?? 109 m3 of water in 31 h. Peak discharges, estimated from uncertainty in channel geometry, dam height, and hydraulic characteristics, ranged from 2.3 to 5.3 ?? 105 m3 s-1 for the Hyaloclastite outburst flood. This discharge is an order of magnitude greater than the largest known discharge on the Colorado River (1.4 ?? 104 m3 s-1) and the largest peak discharge resulting from failure of a constructed dam in the USA (6.5 ?? 104 m3 s-1). Moreover, the Hyaloclastite outburst flood is the oldest documented Quaternary flood and one of the largest to have occurred in the continental USA. The peak discharge for this flood ranks in the top 30 floods (>105 m3 s-1) known worldwide and in the top ten largest floods in North America. ?? 2005 University of Washington. All rights reserved.

Peak discharge of a Pleistocene lava-dam outburst flood in Grand Canyon, Arizona, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fenton, Cassandra R.; Webb, Robert H.; Cerling, Thure E.

2006-03-01

The failure of a lava dam 165,000 yr ago produced the largest known flood on the Colorado River in Grand Canyon. The Hyaloclastite Dam was up to 366 m high, and geochemical evidence linked this structure to outburst-flood deposits that occurred for 32 km downstream. Using the Hyaloclastite outburst-flood deposits as paleostage indicators, we used dam-failure and unsteady flow modeling to estimate a peak discharge and flow hydrograph. Failure of the Hyaloclastite Dam released a maximum 11 × 10 9 m 3 of water in 31 h. Peak discharges, estimated from uncertainty in channel geometry, dam height, and hydraulic characteristics, ranged from 2.3 to 5.3 × 10 5 m 3 s -1 for the Hyaloclastite outburst flood. This discharge is an order of magnitude greater than the largest known discharge on the Colorado River (1.4 × 10 4 m 3 s -1) and the largest peak discharge resulting from failure of a constructed dam in the USA (6.5 × 10 4 m 3 s -1). Moreover, the Hyaloclastite outburst flood is the oldest documented Quaternary flood and one of the largest to have occurred in the continental USA. The peak discharge for this flood ranks in the top 30 floods (>10 5 m 3 s -1) known worldwide and in the top ten largest floods in North America.

Reconstruction and modelling of the 1977 Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) of the Engaño Lake, Chilean Patagonia.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iribarren Anacona, Pablo; Norton, Kevin; Mackintosh, Andrew

2015-04-01

Floods from moraine-dammed lake failures can result in severe damage to mountain communities. GLOFs can also cause long-standing effects in riverine landscapes, due to the high intensity (i.e. great depth and high velocities) and long reach capacity of these events. GLOFs may increase in frequency as glaciers retreat and new lakes develop, highlighting the need for a better understanding of GLOF dynamics and the measures to reduce their negative outcomes. In Patagonia at least 16 moraine-dammed lakes have failed in historic time, however, data about GLOF dynamics and impacts are limited since GLOFs have mainly affected uninhabited areas and ungauged rivers. In March 1977, however, a GLOF flooded a small village (~130 inhabitants) in Chilean Patagonia. We reconstruct the dynamics of this event by semi-structured interviews, interpretation of satellite images (Landsat MSS) and two dimensional (2D) hydraulic modelling (using HEC-RAS 5.0 BETA and the SRTM v4 DEM). This reconstruction provides insights into GLOF behaviour, as well as the planning issues that led to socioeconomic consequences, which included relocation of the village. We mapped the flood extent and compiled data of flood depth and timing to constrain the 2D GLOF simulations. Modelling shows that the water released by the GLOF was in the order of 12-13 million cubic metres and that the flood reached Bahía Murta Viejo, located ~26 km from the failed lake, 2-3 hours after the moraine dam was breached. The flood lasted for about ten hours (at the village), although the peak discharge occurred after only one hour at this site. The maximum water depth at Bahía Murta Viejo was 1.5 m, however, water depths of up to 20 metres were simulated in upstream constricted reaches. The overall flood dynamics suggested by interviews and geomorphic mapping, including hydraulic ponding upstream of bedrock gorges, was well represented in the 2D simulations in spite of the coarse resolution (~80 m) of the DEM used. The

Geochemical discrimination of five pleistocene Lava-Dam outburst-flood deposits, western Grand Canyon, Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fenton, C.R.; Poreda, R.J.; Nash, B.P.; Webb, R.H.; Cerling, T.E.

2004-01-01

Pleistocene basaltic lava dams and outburst-flood deposits in the western Grand Canyon, Arizona, have been correlated by means of cosmogenic 3He (3Hec) ages and concentrations of SiO2, Na2O, K2O, and rare earth elements. These data indicate that basalt clasts and vitroclasts in a given outburst-flood deposit came from a common source, a lava dam. With these data, it is possible to distinguish individual dam-flood events and improve our understanding of the interrelations of volcanism and river processes. At least five lava dams on the Colorado River failed catastrophically between 100 and 525 ka; subsequent outburst floods emplaced basalt-rich deposits preserved on benches as high as 200 m above the current river and up to 53 km downstream of dam sites. Chemical data also distinguishes individual lava flows that were collectively mapped in the past as large long-lasting dam complexes. These chemical data, in combination with age constraints, increase our ability to correlate lava dams and outburst-flood deposits and increase our understanding of the longevity of lava dams. Bases of correlated lava dams and flood deposits approximate the elevation of the ancestral river during each flood event. Water surface profiles are reconstructed and can be used in future hydraulic models to estimate the magnitude of these large-scale floods.

Outbursts and Gradualism: Megaflood erosion consistent with long-term landscape evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia-Castellanos, Daniel; O'Connor, Jim

2017-04-01

Existing models for the development of topography and relief over geological timescales are fundamentally based on semi-empirical laws of the erosion and sediment transport performed by rivers. The prediction power of these laws is hindered by limitations in measuring river incision and by the scant knowledge of the past hydrological conditions, specifically average water flow and its variability. Consequently, models adopt 'gradualistic' (time-averaged) assumptions and the erodability values derived from modelling long-term erosion rates in rivers remain ambiguously tied not only to the lithology and nature of the bedrock but also to uncertainties in the quantification of past climate. This prevents the use of those erodabilities to predict the landscape evolution in different scenarios. Here, we apply the fundamentals of river erosion models to outburst floods triggered by overtopping lakes, for which the hydrograph is intrinsically known from the geomorphological record or from direct measures. We obtain the outlet erodability from the peak water discharge and lake area observed in 86 floods that span over 16 orders of magnitude in water volume. The obtained erodability-lithology correlation is consistent with that seen in 22 previous long-term river incision quantifications, showing that outburst floods can be used to estimate erodability values that remain valid for a wide range of hydrological regimes and for erosion timescales spanning from hours-long outburst floods to million-year-scale landscape evolution. The results constrain the conditions leading to the runaway erosion responsible for outburst floods triggered by overtopping lakes. They also call for the explicit incorporation of climate episodicity to the landscape evolution models. [Funded by CGL2014-59516].

Hazard Assessment of Glacial Lake Outburst Flood and Potential of ICTs for Coping: A Case of Eastern Himalaya of Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhattarai, D. R.

2015-12-01

Retreat of glaciers and formation of glacial lakes in Nepal Himalaya have been reported to be related with the temperature rise in the region. Glacier Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF) are the growing climate induced hazards in the Himalaya. GLOF has increased the vulnerability of community and fragile ecosystem in the mountain valleys. This study has analyzed the potential impacts from GLOF in the highland of eastern Nepal and the potential role of Information Communication Technologies (ICT) to cope with such impacts. I analyzed the trend of climatic pattern (temperature and precipitation) of the Eastern Himalaya Region of Nepal available from the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, Government of Nepal, and prepared the latest location map of the glacial lakes using google earth and ArcGIS applications in the highland of the Kanchanjungha Conservation Area of the region. Tiptala glacial lake, located at an elevation of 4950 m, within the conservation area, was selected for the GLOF hazard assessment. I used semi-structured questionnaire survey and key informants' interviews in the community in order to assess the potential hazard of GLOF. With the varying sizes, 46 glacial lakes were located in the region, which covers over 2.57 sq. km in total. Though the larger portion of the downstream area of the Tiptala glacial lake fall in the remote location away from major residential area, few villages, major pasture lands for Yaks, foot trails, and several bridges across the Tamor River below the lake are in risk of GLOF. Poor access due to extreme geographical remoteness and capacity to afford the modern technologies in the community are the major limiting factor to the knowledge and information about the climate change and related impacts. Modern ICTs has high potential to reduce the risk of climate related hazards in the remote area by information dissemination and awareness.

Timing of Glacial Lake Missoula Outburst Floods and the southwestern Cordilleran Ice Sheet retreat.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hendy, I. L.; Bervid, H. D.; Carlson, A. E.

2017-12-01

Glacial Lake Missoula formed when the Purcell Trench Lobe dammed the Clark Fork River in Montana and catastrophically collapsed repeatedly through the last glacial period as the southern Cordilleran Ice Sheet advanced and retreated. A well-dated 50-kyr jumbo piston core MD02-2496 (48.97˚ N, 127.04˚ W, water depth of 1243 m) collected from the continental slope 75 km off Vancouver Island contains evidence of these floods. The in-situ bulk elemental composition of the 35-m core was determined at 1 mm intervals using an ITRAX X-ray Fluorescence (XRF) Core Scanner (Cox Analytical Instruments) at the Sediment Geochemistry Lab of the College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences at Oregon State University. With 40 mixed planktonic foraminifera and bulk organic carbon 14C ages, the core provides a high-resolution resolution record of glaciomarine sedimentation during deglaciation. A series of >81 layers of fine-grained sediments with ancient (K/Ar ages of 300 Ma and eNd of -8) shale-like (high Rb counts) composition can be found between 19.6 and 9.2 m below coretop. These layers are interspersed by coarser grained, young (K/Ar ages of 100 Ma and eNd of -3) sediments containing ice-rafted debris (IRD). The composition and age of the layers indicates the sediments originated in Glacial Lake Missoula and were transported by ocean currents 250 miles north along the west coast of North America. The flood layers begin at 19.5 ka with five thin (<5 cm thick) layers before thick flood layers (>5 cm thick) appear after 19.3 ka. At 17.1 ka, IRD concentrations increase from <1 grain g-1 to 20 grains g-1, and remain >50 grains g-1 from 16.5-16.35 ka, except in flood layers, as the Juan de Fuca Strait deglaciated. Another 16 flood layers occur from 16.3-15.65 ka; however, the base and top of these layers are diffuse rather than abrupt like earlier flood layers suggesting enhanced mixing between flood and melt waters. The final flood layers from 14.9-14.5 ka are thin (<2 cm thick

Analysis and mitigation of remote geohazards in high mountain areas of Tajikistan with special emphasis on glacial lake outburst floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, Jean F.; Mergili, Martin; Schneider, Demian

2010-05-01

Remote geohazard events in the mountains of Tajikistan have repeatedly caused disasters during the past decades. The rock avalanche of Khait in1949 and the glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) in Dasht in 2002 are only two examples. However, the awareness among stakeholders and the local people is limited since the source areas are far away and the frequency of events is low. The major objective of the research outlined here is to identify and to highlight potential source areas and pathways of remote geohazard events, particularly of GLOFs, in order to allow for well-designed mitigation procedures. The geohazard assessment was carried out in a four-step procedure: • Pre-assessment: GIS and remote sensing techniques were employed for detecting potential source areas and pathways of remote geohazard processes. Relevant features were mapped from medium-resolution datasets and specific areas of interest were deducted from the mapping results. • Helicopter survey: the areas of interest identified during the Pre-assessment were screened from the helicopter. The knowledge gained this way was used to select the areas for the field assessment. • Field assessment: the areas of specific interest were visited in the field by international groups of 4 researchers. These areas were analyzed and mapped in detail and the level of hazard emanating from the lakes or slopes was estimated. • Post-assessment. Based on the field assessment, areas of particular hazard were selected for further analysis. Scenarios of dam breaks and flood waves were built and the possible impact farther down the valley was assessed using computer models. Based on that, recommendations how to mitigate the hazard will be given to the relevant agencies and stakeholders as well as to the local population. In the Southern Pamir, a number of growing glacial lakes was identified. Resulting flood waves could trigger process chains with catastrophic consequences for the population dozens of kilometres

Hydro-morphodynamic modelling of a volcano-induced sediment-laden outburst flood at Sólheimajökull, Iceland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guan, M.; Wright, N.; Sleigh, P. A.; Carrivick, J.; Staines, K.

2013-12-01

Outburst floods are one of the most catastrophic natural hazards for populations and infrastructure. Such high-magnitude sudden onset floods generally comprise of an advancing intense kinematic water wave that can induce considerable sediment transport. The exploration and investigation of sediment-laden outburst floods cannot be limited solely to water flow but must also include the flood-induced sediment transport. Understanding the complex flow-bed interaction process in large (field) scale outburst floods is still limited, not least due to a lack of well-constrained field data, but also because consensus on appropriate modelling schemes has yet to be decided. In recent years, attention has focussed on the numerical models capable of describing the process of erosion, transport and deposition in such flows and they are now at a point at which they provide useful quantitative data. Although the "exact" measure of bed change is still unattainable the numerical models enhance and improve insights into large outburst flood events. In this study, a volcano-induced jökulhlaup or glacial outburst flood (GLOF) at Sólheimajökull, Iceland is reproduced by novel 2D hydro-morphodynamic model that considers both bedload and suspended load based on shallow water theory. The simulation of sediment-laden outburst flood is shown to perform well, with further insights into the flow-bed interaction behaviour obtained from the modelling output. These results are beneficial to flood risk management and hazard prevention and mitigation. In summary, the modelling outputs show that (1) the quantity of bed erosion and deposition are sensitive to the sediment gain size, yet, the influences are not so significant when considering flow discharge; (2) finer resolution of topography increases the computational time significantly yet the results are not affected correspondingly; (3) the bed changes simulated by the present model achieves reasonably good agreement with those by the

Canyon formation constraints on the discharge of catastrophic outburst floods of Earth and Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lapotre, Mathieu G. A.; Lamb, Michael P.; Williams, Rebecca M. E.

2016-07-01

Catastrophic outburst floods carved amphitheater-headed canyons on Earth and Mars, and the steep headwalls of these canyons suggest that some formed by upstream headwall propagation through waterfall erosion processes. Because topography evolves in concert with water flow during canyon erosion, we suggest that bedrock canyon morphology preserves hydraulic information about canyon-forming floods. In particular, we propose that for a canyon to form with a roughly uniform width by upstream headwall retreat, erosion must occur around the canyon head, but not along the sidewalls, such that canyon width is related to flood discharge. We develop a new theory for bedrock canyon formation by megafloods based on flow convergence of large outburst floods toward a horseshoe-shaped waterfall. The model is developed for waterfall erosion by rock toppling, a candidate erosion mechanism in well fractured rock, like columnar basalt. We apply the model to 14 terrestrial (Channeled Scablands, Washington; Snake River Plain, Idaho; and Ásbyrgi canyon, Iceland) and nine Martian (near Ares Vallis and Echus Chasma) bedrock canyons and show that predicted flood discharges are nearly 3 orders of magnitude less than previously estimated, and predicted flood durations are longer than previously estimated, from less than a day to a few months. Results also show a positive correlation between flood discharge per unit width and canyon width, which supports our hypothesis that canyon width is set in part by flood discharge. Despite lower discharges than previously estimated, the flood volumes remain large enough for individual outburst floods to have perturbed the global hydrology of Mars.

Geomorphic change caused by outburst floods and debris flows at Mount Rainier, Washington, with emphasis on Tahoma Creek valley

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walder, J.S.; Driedger, C.L.

1994-01-01

Debris flows have caused rapid geomorphic change in several glacierized drainages on Mount Rainier, Washington. Nearly all of these flows began as glacial outburst floods, then transformed to debris flows by incorporating large masses of sediment in channel reaches where streams have incised proglacial sediments and stagnant glacier ice. This stagnant ice is a relic of advanced glacier positions achieved during the mid-nineteenth century Little Ice Age maximum and the readvance of the 1960's and 1970's. Debris flows have been especially important agents of geomorphic change along Tahoma Creek, which drains South Tahoma Glacier. Debris flows in Tahoma Creek valley have transported downstream about 107 m3 Of sediment since 1967, causing substantial aggradation and damage to roads and facilities in Mount Rainier National Park. The average denudation rate in the upper part of the Tahoma Creek drainage basin in the same period has been extraordinarily high: more than 20 millimeters per year, a value exceeded only rarely in basins affected by debris flows. However, little or none of this sediment has yet passed out of the Tahoma Creek drainage basin. Outburst floods from South Tahoma Glacier form by release of subglacially stored water. The volume of stored water discharged during a typical outburst flood would form a layer several tens of millimeters thick over the bed of the entire glacier, though it is more likely that large linked cavities account for most of the storage. Statistical analysis shows that outburst floods usually occur during periods of atypically hot or rainy weather in summer or early autumn, and that the probability of an outburst increases with temperature (a proxy measure of ablation rate) or rainfall rate. On the basis of these results, we suggest that outburst floods are triggered when rapid input of water to the glacier bed causes transient increase in water pressure, thereby destabilizing the linked-cavity system. The probabilistic nature of

Hydraulic Reconstructions of Outburst Floods on Earth and Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lapotre, M. G. A.; Lamb, M. P.

2014-12-01

Large outburst floods on Earth and Mars have carved bedrock canyons in basalt that often have steep sidewalls and amphitheater heads, suggesting erosion by waterfall retreat and block toppling. Two paleohydraulic methods are typically used to reconstruct flood discharges. The first is based on the discharge required to move sediment, which requires rare grain-size data and is necessarily a lower bound. The second assumes bedrock canyons are entirely inundated, which likely greatly overestimates the discharge of canyon carving floods. Here we explore a third hypothesis that canyon width is an indicator of flood discharge. For example, we expect that for large floods relative to the canyon width, the canyon will tend to widen as water spills over and erodes the canyon sidewalls. In contrast, small floods, relative to the canyon size will tend to focus flow into the canyon head, resulting in a narrowing canyon. To test this hypothesis, we need data on how outburst floods focus water into canyons across a wide range of canyon and flood sizes. To fill this data gap, we performed a series of numerical simulations solving the 2D depth-averaged shallow water equations for turbulent flow. We analyzed the effect of five non-dimensional parameters on the shear stress and discharge distributions around head and sidewalls of canyons of different sizes. The Froude number of the flood has the greatest effect on the distribution of shear stresses and discharges around the canyon rim; higher Froude numbers lead to less convergence of the flow towards the canyon, and thus to lower shear stresses (and discharges) on the sides of the canyon. Simulation results show that canyons of constant width were likely carved by floods within a relatively narrow range of discharges. The range of discharges is sensitive to the Froude number and size of blocks that are toppled at the canyon head, both of which can be estimated from field and remotely sensed data. Example applications on Earth and

Rainfall and snow-melt triggered glacial lake outbursts: a systematic analysis of the Kedarnath (Uttarakhand, India), June 2013 disaster

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, Simon; Rastner, Philipp; Arora, Manohar; Huggel, Christian; Stoffel, Markus

2015-04-01

Heavy rainfall in early June 2013 triggered flash flooding and landslides throughout the Indian Himalayan state of Uttarakhand, killing more than 6000 people. The destruction of roads and trekking routes left around 100,000 pilgrims and tourists stranded. Most fatalities and damages resulted directly from a lake outburst and debris flow disaster originating from above the village of Kedarnath on June 16 and 17. Here we provide a first systematic analysis of the contributing factors leading to the Kedarnath disaster, both in terms of hydro-meteorological triggering (rainfall, snowmelt, and temperature) and topographic predisposition. Specifically, the topographic characteristics of the Charobari lake watershed above Kedarnath are compared with other glacial lakes across the northwestern Indian Himalayan states of Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh, and implications for glacier lake outburst hazard assessment in a changing climate are discussed. Our analysis suggests that the early onset of heavy monsoon rainfall (390 mm, June 10 - 17) immediately following a prolonged four week period of unusually rapid snow cover depletion and elevated streamflow is the crucial hydro-meteorological factor, resulting in slope saturation and significant runoff into the small seasonal glacial lake. Over a four week period the MODIS-derived snow covered area above Kedarnath decreased nearly 50%, from above average coverage in mid-May to well below average coverage by the second week of June. Such a rapid decrease has not been observed in the previous 13-year record, where the average decrease in snow covered area over the same four week window is only 15%. The unusual situation of the lake being dammed in a steep, unstable paraglacial environment, but fed entirely from snow-melt and rainfall within a fluvial dominated watershed is important in the context of this disaster. A simple scheme enabling large-scale recognition of such an unfavorable topographic setting is presented, and on the

Impact on the Columbia River of an outburst of Spirit Lake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sikonia, W.G.

1985-01-01

A one-dimensional sediment-transport computer model was used to study the effects of an outburst of Spirit Lake on the Columbia River. According to the model, flood sediment discharge to the Columbia from the Cowlitz would form a blockage to a height of 44 feet above the current streambed of the Columbia River, corresponding to a new streambed elevation of -3 feet, that would impound the waters of the Columbia River. For an average flow of 233,000 cubic feet in that river, water surface elevations would continue to increase for 16 days after the blockage had been formed. The river elevation at the Trojan nuclear power plant, 5 miles upstream of the Cowlitz River, would rise to 32 feet, compared to a critical elevation of 45 feet, above which the plant would be flooded. For comparison, the Columbia River at average flow without the blockage has an elevation at this location of 6 feet. Correspondingly high water surface elevations would occur along the river to Bonneville Dam , with that at Portland, Oregon, for example, rising also to 32 feet, compared to 10 feet without the blockage. (USGS)

Evolution and outburst risk analysis of moraine-dammed lakes in the central Chinese Himalaya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shijin, Wang; Shitai, Jiao

2015-04-01

The recent evolution and outburst risk of two typical moraine-dammed lakes, Galong and Gangxi, central Chinese Himalaya, are analyzed using topographic maps from 1974 and Landsat satellite imagery acquired in 1988, 2000 and 2014. The datasets show the areas of Galong and Gangxi lakes increasing at rates of 0.45 and 0.34 km2/year during the period 1974-2014, an expansion of 501% and 107%, respectively, in the past 41 years, while the areas of the parent glaciers, Reqiang and Jipucong decreased by 44.22% and 37.76%, respectively. The accelerating retreat of the glaciers not only reflects their generally negative mass balance but is consistent with the rapid expansion of the moraine-dammed lakes. When acted upon by external forces such as earthquakes, heavy rainfall, rapid melting of glaciers and dead ice, and snow/ice/rock avalanches, these lakes can become extremely dangerous, easily forming outburst mudslides, which can potentially spread to the Poiqu river basin and develop into cross-border (China and Nepal) GLOF disasters. Therefore, there is an urgent need to strengthen integrated risk management of glacial lake outburst disasters with multiple objectives and modes.

Response to Comments on "Outburst flood at 1920 BCE supports historicity of China's Great Flood and the Xia dynasty".

PubMed

Wu, Qinglong; Zhao, Zhijun; Liu, Li; Granger, Darryl E; Wang, Hui; Cohen, David J; Wu, Xiaohong; Ye, Maolin; Bar-Yosef, Ofer; Lu, Bin; Zhang, Jin; Zhang, Peizhen; Yuan, Daoyang; Qi, Wuyun; Cai, Linhai; Bai, Shibiao

2017-03-31

Wu et al , Han, and Huang et al question our reconstruction of a large outburst flood and its possible relationship to China's Great Flood and the Xia dynasty. Here, we clarify misconceptions concerning geologic evidence of the flood, its timing and magnitude, and the complex social-cultural response. We also further discuss how this flood may be related to ancient accounts of the Great Flood and origins of the Xia dynasty. Copyright © 2017, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Surge dynamics and lake outbursts of Kyagar Glacier, Karakoram

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Round, Vanessa; Leinss, Silvan; Huss, Matthias; Haemmig, Christoph; Hajnsek, Irena

2017-03-01

The recent surge cycle of Kyagar Glacier, in the Chinese Karakoram, caused formation of an ice-dammed lake and subsequent glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) exceeding 40 million m3 in 2015 and 2016. GLOFs from Kyagar Glacier reached double this size in 2002 and earlier, but the role of glacier surging in GLOF formation was previously unrecognised. We present an integrative analysis of the glacier surge dynamics from 2011 to 2016, assessing surge mechanisms and evaluating the surge cycle impact on GLOFs. Over 80 glacier surface velocity fields were created from TanDEM-X (TerraSAR-X add-on for Digital Elevation Measurement), Sentinel-1A, and Landsat satellite data. Changes in ice thickness distribution were revealed by a time series of TanDEM-X elevation models. The analysis shows that, during a quiescence phase lasting at least 14 years, ice mass built up in a reservoir area at the top of the glacier tongue, and the terminus thinned by up to 100 m, but in the 2 years preceding the surge onset this pattern reversed. The surge initiated with the onset of the 2014 melt season, and in the following 15 months velocity evolved in a manner consistent with a hydrologically controlled surge mechanism. Dramatic accelerations coincided with melt seasons, winter deceleration was accompanied by subglacial drainage, and rapid surge termination occurred following the 2015 GLOF. Rapid basal motion during the surge is seemingly controlled by high water pressure, caused by input of surface water into either an inefficient subglacial drainage system or unstable subglacial till. The potential lake volume increased to more than 70 million m3 by late 2016, as a result of over 60 m of thickening at the terminus. Lake formation and the evolution of the ice dam height should be carefully monitored through remote sensing to anticipate large GLOFs in the near future.

Living and dying with glaciers: people's historical vulnerability to avalanches and outburst floods in Peru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carey, Mark

2005-07-01

Human populations worldwide are vulnerable to natural disasters. Certain conditions—such as geographical location or people's income level—can affect the degree to which natural disasters impact people's homes and livelihoods. This paper suggests that vulnerability to natural disasters increases when local people, scientists, and policymakers do not communicate and trust each other. Additionally, a breakdown in interaction and confidence among these groups can disrupt the implementation of sound science or well-intentioned policies. This case study analyzes how local people, scientists, and government officials responded to glacier hazards in Peru's Cordillera Blanca mountain range. Cordillera Blanca glacier retreat since the late-19th century has triggered some of the world's most deadly avalanches and glacial lake outburst floods. Although a Peruvian glaciology and lakes security office has "controlled" 35 Cordillera Blanca glacial lakes, 30 glacier disasters have killed nearly 30,000 people in this region since 1941. A lack of local faith in government officials and scientists as well as the State's failure to follow scientists' warnings about potential disasters have endangered or led to the death of thousands of local residents, many of which remain living in hazard zones today.

Glacialmorphological reconstruction of glacier advances and glacial lake outburst floods at the Cachapoal glacier in the Dry Central Andes of Chile (34°S)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iturrizaga, Lasafam; Charrier, Reynaldo

2013-04-01

Throughout the Andes Mountain range of South America a general trend of glacier shrinkage has taken place in the last century. Only a few glaciers have shown a rather non-continuous trend of glacier retreat and temporally advanced or even surged during the mid-19th to 20th century. One of the earliest assumed glacier surges has occurred in the upper Cachapoal catchment area at the homonymous glacier. In climatic respect the Cachapoal glacier is located in the transition zone from the most southern part of the Dry Central Andes of Chile to the more humid zone of the Wet Andes. The region is affected mainly by winter precipitation deriving from the Westerlies. The debris-covered, 12 km-long Cachapoal glacier represents one of the largest valley glaciers in the Central Andes. It is an avalanche-fed glacier with an almost 1500 m-high head wall in its upper catchment area flowing down from Picos del Barroso (5180 m) and terminates at an elevation of 2630 m a.s.l. with a bifurcated glacier tongue. A large moraine complex, almost 2 km in length and 500 m in width, separates the two glacier lobes. During times of advanced glacier tongue positions the Ríos Molina and Cachapoal may be have blocked independently at two distinct localities which are situated about 2300 m apart from each other. A blockage with temporal lake formation has occurred at least in the years 1848, 1955 and 1981 (cf. Plagemann 1887, Peña 1981), from which the rupture of the earliest glacier barrier has been the most devastating. This event is locally reminded as "la gran avenida en seco" in the historical record. Geomorphological evidence of the past historical and modern glacier expansions is given in the proglacial area by a fresh dead-ice hummocky topography and glacial trimlines at the valley flanks. More down valley broad outwash plains and boulder clusters indicate past high energy floods produced by glacier lake outbursts. Regarding the small size of the catchment area of the Río Molina

Hydrologic and Geomorphic Changes Resulting from the Onset of Episodic Glacial Lake Outburst Floods: Colonia River, Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacquet, J.; McCoy, S. W.; McGrath, D.; Nimick, D.; Friesen, B.; Fahey, M. J.; Leidich, J.; Okuinghttons, J.

2015-12-01

The Colonia river system, draining the eastern edge of the Northern Patagonia Icefield, Chile, has experienced a dramatic shift in flow regime from one characterized by seasonal discharge variability to one dominated by episodic glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). We use multi-temporal visible satellite images, high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) derived from stereo image pairs, and in situ observations to quantify sediment and water fluxes out of the dammed glacial lake, Lago Cachet Dos (LC2), as well as the concomitant downstream environmental change. GLOFs initiated in April 2008 and have since occurred, on average, two to three times a year. Differencing concurrent gage measurements made on the Baker River upstream and downstream of the confluence with the Colonia river finds peak GLOF discharges of ~ 3,000 m3s-1, which is ~ 4 times the median discharge of the Baker River and over 20 times the median discharge of the Colonia river. During each GLOF, ~ 200,000,000 m3 of water evacuates from the LC2, resulting in erosion of valley-fill sediments and the delta on the upstream end of LC2. Differencing DEMs between April 2008 and February 2014 revealed that ~ 2.5 x 107 m3 of sediment was eroded. Multi-temporal DEM differencing shows that erosion rates were highest initially, with > 20 vertical m of sediment removed between 2008 and 2012, and generally less than 5 m between 2012 and 2014. The downstream Colonia River Sandur also experienced geomorphic changes due to GLOFs. Using Landsat imagery to calculate the normalized difference water index (NDWI), we demonstrate that the Colonia River was in a stable configuration between 1984 and 2008. At the onset of GLOFs in April 2008, a change in channel location began and continued with each subsequent GLOF. Quantification of sediment and water fluxes due to GLOFs in the Colonia river valley provides insight on the geomorphic and environmental changes in river systems experiencing dramatic shifts in flow

Geomorphologically effective floods from moraine-dammed lakes in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emmer, Adam

2017-12-01

Outburst floods originating in moraine-dammed lakes represent a significant geomorphological process as well as a specific type of threat for local communities in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru (8.5°-10° S; 77°-78° W). An exceptional concentration of catastrophic floods has been reported from the Cordillera Blanca in the first half of 20th Century (1930s-1950s), leading to thousands of fatalities. The main objective of this paper is to provide a revised and comprehensive overview of geomorphologically effective floods in the area of interest, using various documentary data sources, verified by analysis of remotely sensed images (1948-2013) and enhanced by original field data. Verified events (n = 28; 4 not mentioned before) are analysed from the perspective of spatiotemporal distribution, pre-flood conditions, causes, mechanisms and geomorphological impacts as well as socioeconomical consequences, revealing certain patterns and similar features. GLOFs are further classified according to their magnitude: 5 extreme events, 8 major events and 15 minor events are distinguished, referring to the quantified geomorphological and socioeconomical impacts. Selected moraine dams and flood deposits are dated using lichenometric dating. Special attention is given to moraine dam breaches - the most frequent type of water release with the most significant consequences. Selected major events and their consequences are studied in detail in a separate section. Finally, a general schematic model of lake formation, growth and post-flood evolution reflecting initial topographical setting and glacier retreat is introduced and the utilization of the obtained results is outlined.

Photogrammetric recognition of subglacial drainage channels during glacier lake outburst events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwalbe, Ellen; Koschitzki, Robert

2016-04-01

In recent years, many glaciers all over the world have been distinctly retreating and thinning. One of the consequences of this is the increase of so called glacier lake outburst flood events (GLOFs): Lakes that have been dammed by a glacier spontaneously start to drain through a subglacial channel underneath the glacier due to their outweighing hydrostatic pressure. In a short period of time, the lake water drains under the glacier and causes floods in downstream valleys. In many cases the latter become hazardous for people and their property. Due to glacier movement, the tunnel will soon collapse, and the glacier lake refills, thus starting a new GLOF cycle. The mechanisms ruling GLOF events are yet still not fully understood by glaciologists. Thus, there is a demand for data and measurement values that can help to understand and model the phenomena. In view of the above, we will show how photogrammetric image sequence analysis can be used to collect data which allows for drawing conclusions about the location and development of a subglacial channel. The work is a follow-up on earlier work on a photogrammetric GLOF early warning system (Mulsow et. al., 2013). For the purpose of detecting the subglacial tunnel, a camera has been installed in a pilot study to observe the area of the Colonia glacier (Northern Patagonian ice field) where it dams the lake Lago Cachet II. To verify the hypothesis, that the course of the subglacial tunnel is indicated by irregular surface motion patterns during its collapse, the camera acquired image sequences of the glacier surface during several GLOF events. Applying LSM-based tracking techniques to these image sequences, surface feature motion trajectories could be obtained for a dense raster of glacier points. Since only a single camera has been used for image sequence acquisition, depth information is required to scale the trajectories. Thus, for scaling and georeferencing of the measurements a GPS-supported photogrammetric network

Using satellite images to monitor glacial-lake outburst floods: Lago Cachet Dos drainage, Chile

USGS Publications Warehouse

Friesen, Beverly A.; Cole, Christopher J.; Nimick, David A.; Wilson, Earl M.; Fahey, Mark J.; McGrath, Daniel J.; Leidich, Jonathan

2015-01-01

During 2008–2013, 14 GLOFs were released from Lago Cachet Dos and created environmental and safety concerns for downstream residents and to infrastructure. If GLOFs and the consequent headward erosion continue, the moraine that creates Lago Cachet Uno could be destabilized and breached, and the two lakes could merge. If the two lakes become connected, the volume of future GLOFs likely would be greater and thus cause longer and (or) more extensive flooding downstream. Additional GLOFs from Lago Cachet Dos are expected in the future, and continued environmental monitoring could provide an early warning system as well as scientific information that could increase our understanding of GLOFs and their consequences. GLOFs occur in glaciated areas around the world and remote sensing technologies can allow researchers to better understand—and potentially predict—future GLOF events.

Fuzzy Cognitive Maps for Glacier Hazards Assessment: Application to Predicting the Potential for Glacier Lake Outbursts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Furfaro, R.; Kargel, J. S.; Fink, W.; Bishop, M. P.

2010-12-01

Glaciers and ice sheets are among the largest unstable parts of the solid Earth. Generally, glaciers are devoid of resources (other than water), are dangerous, are unstable and no infrastructure is normally built directly on their surfaces. Areas down valley from large alpine glaciers are also commonly unstable due to landslide potential of moraines, debris flows, snow avalanches, outburst floods from glacier lakes, and other dynamical alpine processes; yet there exists much development and human occupation of some disaster-prone areas. Satellite remote sensing can be extremely effective in providing cost-effective and time- critical information. Space-based imagery can be used to monitor glacier outlines and their lakes, including processes such as iceberg calving and debris accumulation, as well as changing thicknesses and flow speeds. Such images can also be used to make preliminary identifications of specific hazardous spots and allows preliminary assessment of possible modes of future disaster occurrence. Autonomous assessment of glacier conditions and their potential for hazards would present a major advance and permit systematized analysis of more data than humans can assess. This technical leap will require the design and implementation of Artificial Intelligence (AI) algorithms specifically designed to mimic glacier experts’ reasoning. Here, we introduce the theory of Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCM) as an AI tool for predicting and assessing natural hazards in alpine glacier environments. FCM techniques are employed to represent expert knowledge of glaciers physical processes. A cognitive model embedded in a fuzzy logic framework is constructed via the synergistic interaction between glaciologists and AI experts. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed AI methodology as applied to predicting hazards in glacier environments, we designed and implemented a FCM that addresses the challenging problem of autonomously assessing the Glacier Lake Outburst Flow

Ice-dammed lake drainage evolution at Russell Glacier, west Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carrivick, Jonathan L.; Tweed, Fiona S.; Ng, Felix; Quincey, Duncan J.; Mallalieu, Joseph; Ingeman-Nielsen, Thomas; Mikkelsen, Andreas B.; Palmer, Steven J.; Yde, Jacob C.; Homer, Rachel; Russell, Andrew J.; Hubbard, Alun

2017-11-01

Glaciological and hydraulic factors that control the timing and mechanisms of glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) remain poorly understood. This study used measurements of lake level at fifteen minute intervals and known lake bathymetry to calculate lake outflow during two GLOF events from the northern margin of Russell Glacier, west Greenland. We used measured ice surface elevation, interpolated subglacial topography and likely conduit geometry to inform a melt enlargement model of the outburst evolution. The model was tuned to best-fit the hydrograph’s rising limb and timing of peak discharge in both events; it achieved Mean Absolute Errors of < 5 %. About one third of the way through the rising limb, conduit melt enlargement became the dominant drainage mechanism. Lake water temperature, which strongly governed the enlargement rate, preconditioned the high peak discharge and short duration of these floods. We hypothesize that both GLOFs were triggered by ice dam flotation, and localised hydraulic jacking sustained most of their early-stage outflow, explaining the particularly rapid water egress in comparison to that recorded at other ice-marginal lakes. As ice overburden pressure relative to lake water hydraulic head diminished, flow became confined to a subglacial conduit. This study has emphasised the inter-play between ice dam thickness and lake level, drainage timing, lake water temperature and consequently rising stage lake outflow and flood evolution.

Rapid geomorphic change caused by glacial outburst floods and debris flows along Tahoma Creek, Mount Rainier, Washington, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walder, J.S.; Driedger, C.L.

1994-01-01

As part of a hazards-assessment study, we examined the nature and rate of geomorphic change caused by outburst floods and debris flows along Tahoma Creek. Mount Rainier, since 1967. Archival aerial photographs of the area proved to be a rich source of qualitative geomorphic information. On the basis of limited direct evidence and considerations of stream hydrology, we conclude that nearly all of these debris flows began as outburst floods from South Tahoma Glacier. The water floods transformed to debris flows by incorporating large masses of sediment in a 2-km-long channel reach where the stream has incised proglacial sediments and debris-rich, stagnant glacier ice. Comparison of topographic maps for 1970 and 1991 shows that the average sediment flux out of the incised reach has been about 2 to 4 × 105 m3 a-1 corresponding to an average denudation rate in the upper part of the Tahoma Creek drainage basin of about 20 to 40 mm a-1, a value exceeded only rarely in basins affected by debris flows. However, little of this sediment has yet passed out of the Tahoma Creek basin. Comparison of geomorphic change at Tahoma Creek to that in two other alpine basins affected by outburst floods suggests that debris-rich stagnant ice can be an important source of sediment for debris flows as long as floods are frequent or channel slope is great.

Hydrologic conditions and hazards in the Kennicott River basin, Wrangell-St. Elias National Park Preserve, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rickman, R.L.; Rosenkrans, D.S.

1997-01-01

McCarthy, Alaska, is on the Kennicott River, about 1 mile from the terminus of Kennicott Glacier in the Wrangell-St. Elias National Park and Preserve. Most visitors to McCarthy and the park cross the West Fork Kennicott River using a hand-pulled tram and cross the East Fork Kennicott River on a temporary footbridge. Outburst floods from glacier-dammed lakes result in channel erosion, aggradation, and migration of the Kennicott River, which disrupt transportation links, destroy property, and threaten life. Hidden Creek Lake, the largest of six glacier-dammed lakes in the Kennicott River Basin, has annual outbursts that cause the largest floods on the Kennicott River. Outbursts from Hidden Creek Lake occur from early fall to mid-summer, and lake levels at the onset of the outbursts have declined between 1909 and 1995. Criteria for impending outbursts for Hidden Creek Lake include lake stage near or above 3,000 to 3,020 feet, stationary or declining lake stage, evidence of recent calving of large ice blocks from the ice margin, slush ice and small icebergs stranded on the lakeshore, and fresh fractures in the ice-margin region. The lower Kennicott Glacier has thinned and retreated since about 1860. The East and West Fork Kennicott River channels migrated in response to changes in the lower Kennicott Glacier. The largest channel changes occur during outburst floods from Hidden Creek Lake, whereas channel changes from the other glacier-dammed lake outbursts are small. Each year, the West Fork Kennicott River conveys a larger percentage of the Kennicott Glacier drainage than it did the previous year. Outburst floods on the Kennicott River cause the river stage to rise over a period of several hours. Smaller spike peaks have a very rapid stage rise. Potential flood magnitude was estimated by combining known maximum discharges from Hidden Creek Lake and Lake Erie outburst floods with a theoretical large regional flood. Flood hazard areas at the transportation corridor were

The Holocene floods and their affinity to climatic variability in the western Himalaya, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Shubhra; Shukla, A. D.; Bartarya, S. K.; Marh, B. S.; Juyal, Navin

2017-08-01

The present study in the middle Satluj valley explores the sedimentary records of past floods with an objective to understand the climatic processes responsible for their genesis. Based on lithostratigraphy, sedimentology, and grain size variability, 25 flood events are identified. The geochemical data indicate that the flood sediments were mostly generated and transported from the higher Himalayan crystalline and the trans-Himalaya. Our study suggests that the floods were generated by Landslide Lake Outburst Floods (LLOFs) during extreme precipitation events. However, the existing database does not allow us to negate the contribution from Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs). Field stratigraphy supported by optical chronology indicates four major flood phases that are dated to 13.4-10.4, 8.3-3.6, 2.2-1.4, and < 1.4 ka (kilo-annum). These phases correspond to the cooler and less wet conditions and broadly correlate with the phases of negative Arctic Oscillation (- AO) and negative North Atlantic Oscillation (- NAO). Thus, implying coupling between the moisture-laden monsoon circulation and southward penetrating mid-latitude westerly troughs for extreme precipitation events and consequent LLOFs. Additionally, a broad synchronicity in Holocene floods between the western Himalaya and across the mid-latitudinal region (30°N-40°N) suggests a synoptic scale Arctic and Atlantic climate variability.

Assessing downstream flood impacts due to a potential GLOF from Imja Tsho in Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Somos-Valenzuela, M. A.; McKinney, D. C.; Byers, A. C.; Rounce, D. R.; Portocarrero, C.; Lamsal, D.

2015-03-01

Glacial-dominated areas pose unique challenges to downstream communities in adapting to recent and continuing global climate change, including increased threats of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) that can increase risk due to flooding of downstream communities and cause substantial impacts on regional social, environmental and economic systems. The Imja glacial lake (or Imja Tsho) in Nepal, which has the potential to generate a GLOF, was studied using a two-dimensional debris-flow inundation model in order to evaluate the effectiveness of proposed measures to reduce possible flooding impacts to downstream communities by lowering the lake level. The results indicate that only minor flood impact reduction is achieved in the downstream community of Dingboche with modest (~3 m) lake lowering. Lowering the lake by 10 m shows a significant reduction in inundated area. However, lowering the lake by 20 m almost eliminates all flood impact at Dingboche. Further downstream at Phakding, the impact of the GLOF is significant and similar reductions in inundation are likely as a result of lake lowering.

Anatomy of terminal moraine segments and implied lake stability on Ngozumpa Glacier, Nepal, from electrical resistivity tomography (ERT).

PubMed

Thompson, Sarah S; Kulessa, Bernd; Benn, Douglas I; Mertes, Jordan R

2017-04-20

Moraine-dammed lakes at debris-covered glaciers are becoming increasingly common and pose significant outburst flood hazards if the dam is breached. While moraine subsurface structure and internal processes are likely to influence dam stability, only few sites have so far been investigated. We conducted electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) surveys at two sites on the terminal moraine complex of the Ngozumpa Glacier, Nepal, to aid assessment of future terminus stability. The resistivity signature of glacier ice at the site (100-15 kΩ m) is more consistent with values measured from cold glacier ice and while this may be feasible, uncertainties in the data inversion introduce ambiguity to this thermal interpretation. However, the ERT data does provide a significant improvement to our knowledge of the subsurface characteristics at these sites, clearly showing the presence (or absence) of glacier ice. Our interpretation is that of a highly complex latero-terminal moraine, resulting from interaction between previous glacier advance, recession and outburst flooding. If the base-level Spillway Lake continues to expand to a fully formed moraine-dammed glacial lake, the degradation of the ice core could have implications for glacial lake outburst risk.

Anatomy of terminal moraine segments and implied lake stability on Ngozumpa Glacier, Nepal, from electrical resistivity tomography (ERT)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, Sarah S.; Kulessa, Bernd; Benn, Douglas I.; Mertes, Jordan R.

2017-04-01

Moraine-dammed lakes at debris-covered glaciers are becoming increasingly common and pose significant outburst flood hazards if the dam is breached. While moraine subsurface structure and internal processes are likely to influence dam stability, only few sites have so far been investigated. We conducted electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) surveys at two sites on the terminal moraine complex of the Ngozumpa Glacier, Nepal, to aid assessment of future terminus stability. The resistivity signature of glacier ice at the site (100-15 kΩ m) is more consistent with values measured from cold glacier ice and while this may be feasible, uncertainties in the data inversion introduce ambiguity to this thermal interpretation. However, the ERT data does provide a significant improvement to our knowledge of the subsurface characteristics at these sites, clearly showing the presence (or absence) of glacier ice. Our interpretation is that of a highly complex latero-terminal moraine, resulting from interaction between previous glacier advance, recession and outburst flooding. If the base-level Spillway Lake continues to expand to a fully formed moraine-dammed glacial lake, the degradation of the ice core could have implications for glacial lake outburst risk.

Anatomy of terminal moraine segments and implied lake stability on Ngozumpa Glacier, Nepal, from electrical resistivity tomography (ERT)

PubMed Central

Thompson, Sarah S.; Kulessa, Bernd; Benn, Douglas I.; Mertes, Jordan R.

2017-01-01

Moraine-dammed lakes at debris-covered glaciers are becoming increasingly common and pose significant outburst flood hazards if the dam is breached. While moraine subsurface structure and internal processes are likely to influence dam stability, only few sites have so far been investigated. We conducted electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) surveys at two sites on the terminal moraine complex of the Ngozumpa Glacier, Nepal, to aid assessment of future terminus stability. The resistivity signature of glacier ice at the site (100–15 kΩ m) is more consistent with values measured from cold glacier ice and while this may be feasible, uncertainties in the data inversion introduce ambiguity to this thermal interpretation. However, the ERT data does provide a significant improvement to our knowledge of the subsurface characteristics at these sites, clearly showing the presence (or absence) of glacier ice. Our interpretation is that of a highly complex latero-terminal moraine, resulting from interaction between previous glacier advance, recession and outburst flooding. If the base-level Spillway Lake continues to expand to a fully formed moraine-dammed glacial lake, the degradation of the ice core could have implications for glacial lake outburst risk. PMID:28425458

Recognition of Drainage Tunnels during Glacier Lake Outburst Events from Terrestrial Image Sequences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwalbe, E.; Koschitzki, R.; Maas, H.-G.

2016-06-01

In recent years, many glaciers all over the world have been distinctly retreating and thinning. One of the consequences of this is the increase of so called glacier lake outburst flood events (GLOFs). The mechanisms ruling such GLOF events are still not yet fully understood by glaciologists. Thus, there is a demand for data and measurements that can help to understand and model the phenomena. Thereby, a main issue is to obtain information about the location and formation of subglacial channels through which some lakes, dammed by a glacier, start to drain. The paper will show how photogrammetric image sequence analysis can be used to collect such data. For the purpose of detecting a subglacial tunnel, a camera has been installed in a pilot study to observe the area of the Colonia Glacier (Northern Patagonian Ice Field) where it dams the Lake Cachet II. To verify the hypothesis, that the course of the subglacial tunnel is indicated by irregular surface motion patterns during its collapse, the camera acquired image sequences of the glacier surface during several GLOF events. Applying tracking techniques to these image sequences, surface feature motion trajectories could be obtained for a dense raster of glacier points. Since only a single camera has been used for image sequence acquisition, depth information is required to scale the trajectories. Thus, for scaling and georeferencing of the measurements a GPS-supported photogrammetric network has been measured. The obtained motion fields of the Colonia Glacier deliver information about the glacier's behaviour before during and after a GLOF event. If the daily vertical glacier motion of the glacier is integrated over a period of several days and projected into a satellite image, the location and shape of the drainage channel underneath the glacier becomes visible. The high temporal resolution of the motion fields may also allows for an analysis of the tunnels dynamic in comparison to the changing water level of the lake.

Sedimentary record of sub-glacial outburst floods at Laurentian Fan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leng, Wei; von Dobeneck, Tilo

2016-04-01

Large-scale glacial meltwater discharge could be widely recognized off the eastern Canadian continental margin. At Laurentian Fan, sub-glacial outburst floods eroded Permian-Carboniferous redbeds at Gulf of St. Lawrence and then delivered the reddish sediments by Laurentian Channel. Sedimentary record from four gravity cores (GeoB18514-2, 18515-1, 18516-2 and 18517-1) at the SW slope of the Grand Banks of Newfoundland revealed the major depositional processes since Heinrich event 2 (ca. 22 ka). In the cores, the upper thick Holocene olive-grey silty mud units overly IRD-rich Heinrich 1 layer, five reddish units are distinguished in the lower part. Reddish units get proportionally thinner along the SW slope at higher and more distal positions; instead, separating olive-grey layers get thicker with height and distance. Reddish and olive grey units have sharp boundaries and no signs of erosion. Mean grain size changes abruptly from coarse in grey layers to fine in reddish layers, terrigenous elements (as Al, K, Ti, Fe) and clays (Al/Si) are highly elevated in reddish layers and low in Heinrich layers, which are instead enriched in detrital continental carbonates. Both Heinrich layers and reddish layers have enhanced magnetic susceptibility, but Heinrich layer have higher ferromagnetic (SIRM) content (mafic rocks), while reddish layers have more hematite (HIRM). These five reddish layers differ from event to event, which seems to reflect different mixing ratios of event-related and background sedimentation. This mixing will allow estimating event-specific sedimentation rates. Using mixing ratio combined with 14C dating data could contribute to estimate the sedimentation rate and duration of outburst floods, which could help to build ice sheet retreat history and find the connection with paleoclimate changes.

Integrated hazard assessment of Cirenmaco glacial lake in Zhangzangbo valley, Central Himalayas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Weicai; Gao, Yang; Iribarren Anacona, Pablo; Lei, Yanbin; Xiang, Yang; Zhang, Guoqing; Li, Shenghai; Lu, Anxin

2018-04-01

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) have recently become one of the primary natural hazards in the Himalayas. There is therefore an urgent need to assess GLOF hazards in the region. Cirenmaco, a moraine-dammed lake located in the upstream portion of Zhangzangbo valley, Central Himalayas, has received public attention after its damaging 1981 outburst flood. Here, by combining remote sensing methods, bathymetric survey and 2D hydraulic modeling, we assessed the hazard posed by Cirenmaco in its current status. Inter-annual variation of Cirenmaco lake area indicates a rapid lake expansion from 0.10 ± 0.08 km2 in 1988 to 0.39 ± 0.04 km2 in 2013. Bathymetric survey shows the maximum water depth of the lake in 2012 was 115 ± 2 m and the lake volume was calculated to be 1.8 × 107 m3. Field geomorphic analysis shows that Cirenmaco glacial lake is prone to GLOFs as mass movements and ice and snow avalanches can impact the lake and the melting of the dead ice in the moraine can lower the dam level. HEC-RAS 2D model was then used to simulate moraine dam failure of the Cirenmaco and assess GLOF impacts downstream. Reconstruction of Cirenmaco 1981 GLOF shows that HEC-RAS can produce reasonable flood extent and water depth, thus demonstrate its ability to effectively model complex GLOFs. GLOF modeling results presented can be used as a basis for the implementation of disaster prevention and mitigation measures. As a case study, this work shows how we can integrate different methods to GLOF hazard assessment.

Spatiotemporal patterns of high-mountain lakes and related hazards in western Austria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emmer, Adam; Merkl, Sarah; Mergili, Martin

2015-10-01

Climate-induced environmental changes are triggering the dynamic evolution of high-mountain lakes worldwide, a phenomenon that has to be monitored in terms of lake outburst hazards. We analyzed the spatial distribution and recent temporal development of high-mountain lakes in a study area of 6139 km2, covering the central European Alps over most of the province of Tyrol and part of the province of Salzburg in western Austria. We identified 1024 natural lakes. While eight lakes are ice-dammed, one-third of all lakes are located in the immediate vicinity of recent glacier tongues, half of them impounded by moraines, half by bedrock. Two-thirds of all lakes are apparently related to LIA or earlier glaciations. One landslide-dammed lake was identified in the study area. The evolution of nine selected (pro)glacial lakes was analyzed in detail, using multitemporal remotely sensed images and field reconnaissance. Considerable glacier retreat led to significant lake growth at four localities, two lakes experienced stagnant or slightly negative areal trends, one lake experienced a more significant negative areal trend, and two lakes drained completely during the investigation period. We further (i) analyzed the susceptibility of selected lakes to glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), using two different methods; (ii) identified potential triggers and mechanisms of GLOFs; (iii) calculated possible flood magnitudes for predefined flood scenarios for a subset of the lakes; and (iv) delineated potentially impacted areas. We distinguished three phases of development of bedrock-dammed lakes: (a) a proglacial, (b) a glacier-detached, and (c) a nonglacial phase. The dynamics - and also the susceptibility of a lake to GLOFs - decrease substantially from (a) to (c). Lakes in the stages (a) and (b) are less prominent in our study area, compared to other glacierized high-mountain regions, leading us to the conclusion that (i) the current threat to the population by GLOFs is lower but

Development of Adygine glacier complex (glacier and proglacial lakes) and its link to outburst hazard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Falatkova, Kristyna; Schöner, Wolfgang; Häusler, Hermann; Reisenhofer, Stefan; Neureiter, Anton; Sobr, Miroslav; Jansky, Bohumir

2017-04-01

Mountain glacier retreat has a well-known impact on life of local population - besides anxiety over water supply for agriculture, industry, or households, it has proved to have a direct influence on glacier hazard occurrence. The paper focuses on lake outburst hazard specifically, and aims to describe the previous and future development of Adygine glacier complex and identify its relationship to the hazard. The observed glacier is situated in the Northern Tien Shan, with an area of 4 km2 in northern exposition at an elevation range of 3,500-4,200 m a.s.l. The study glacier ranks in the group of small-sized glaciers, therefore we expect it to respond faster to changes of the climate compared to larger ones. Below the glacier there is a three-level cascade of proglacial lakes at different stages of development. The site has been observed sporadically since 1960s, however, closer study has been carried out since 2007. Past development of the glacier-lake complex is analyzed by combination of satellite imagery interpretations and on-site measurements (geodetic and bathymetric survey). A glacier mass balance model is used to simulate future development of the glacier resulting from climate scenarios. We used the simulated future glacier extent and the glacier base topography provided by GPR survey to assess potential for future lake formation. This enables us to assess the outburst hazard for the three selected lakes with an outlook for possible/probable hazard changes linked to further complex succession/progression (originating from climate change scenarios). Considering the proximity of the capital Bishkek, spreading settlements, and increased demand for tourism-related infrastructure within the main valley, it is of high importance to identify the present and possible future hazards that have a potential to affect this region.

Dynamic Change in Glacial Dammed Lake Behavior of Suicide Basin, Mendenhall Glacier, Juneau Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacobs, A. B.; Moran, T.; Hood, E. W.

2016-12-01

Suicide Basin Jökulhlaups, since 2011, have resulted in moderate flooding on the Mendenhall Lake and River in Juneau, AK. At this time, the USGS recorded peak streamflow of 20,000 cfs in 2014, the highest flows officially reported by the USGS which was attributed to a Suicide Basin glacial-dammed lake release. However, the USGS estimated a peak flow of 27,000 cfs in 1961 and we suspect this event is partially the result of a glacial dammed lake release. From 2011 to 2015, data indicates that yearly outburst from Suicide Basin were the norm; however, in 2015 and 2016, multiple outbursts during the summer were observed suggesting a dynamic change in glacial behavior. For public safety and awareness, the University of Alaska Southeast and U.S. Geologic Survey began monitoring real-time Suicide Basin lake levels. A real-time model was developed by the National Weather Service Alaska-Pacific River Forecast Center capable of forecasting potential timing and magnitude of the flood-wave crest from this Suicide Basin release. However, the model now is being modified because data not previously available has become available and adapted to the change in state of glacial behavior. The importance of forecasting time and level of crest on the Mendenhall River system owing to these outbursts floods is an essential aid to emergency managers and the general public to provide impact decision support services (IDSS). The National Weather Service has been able to provide 36 to 24 hour forecasts for these large events, but with the change in glacial state on the Mendenhall Glacier, the success of forecasting these events is getting more challenging. We will show the success of the hydrologic model but at the same time show the challenges we have seen with the changing glacier dynamics.

Incision of Licus Vallis, Mars, From Multiple Lake Overflow Floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goudge, Timothy A.; Fassett, Caleb I.

2018-02-01

Licus Vallis is a large valley (>350 km long, >2 km wide, and >150 m deep) that heads at the outlet breach of an 30 km diameter impact crater. We present observations of the geomorphology and topography of this paleolake outlet valley and associated tributary valleys to constrain the history of incision of the Licus Vallis system. Licus Vallis has an abrupt increase in gradient by a factor of approximately 4 along its longitudinal profile, and a knickpoint that drops 200 m over a reach of 2 km approximately 12 km downstream from the valley head. We also describe a set of paired terraces within Licus Vallis, which are continuous for tens of kilometers and define an interior valley >2 km in width. We interpret the geomorphology of Licus Vallis as recording at least two discrete, major episodes of valley incision, both driven by lake overflow floods. The main portion of Licus Vallis formed by overflow flooding from a large ( 103-104 km2) lake contained in an intercrater basin. Subsequently, overflow flooding from a lake within the 30 km diameter impact crater reactivated Licus Vallis, forming a major knickpoint at the valley head and establishing the upstream section of the valley at a lower slope. Farther down the valley, this flood event incised an interior valley bounded by paired terraces. Regional tributary valleys that feed Licus Vallis also have prominent knickpoints, which have retreated farthest for downstream valleys. We conclude that these knickpoints record successive waves of incision that swept up Licus Vallis during lake overflow flooding, with erosion in the main trunk of the valley (from overflow floods) significantly outpacing erosion in the tributary valleys (from regional surface runoff). These observations of Licus Vallis illustrate how lake overflow floods may have provided an important control on the pace of landscape evolution on Mars.

Flood-inundation maps for Lake Champlain in Vermont and in northern Clinton County, New York

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flynn, Robert H.; Hayes, Laura

2016-06-30

Digital flood-inundation maps for an approximately100-mile length of Lake Champlain in Addison, Chittenden, Franklin, and Grand Isle Counties in Vermont and northern Clinton County in New York were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the International Joint Commission (IJC). The flood-inundationmaps, which can be accessed through the International Joint Commission (IJC) Web site at http://www.ijc.org/en_/, depict estimates of the areal extent flooding correspondingto selected water levels (stages) at the USGS lake gage on the Richelieu River (Lake Champlain) at Rouses Point, N.Y. (station number 04295000). In this study, wind and seiche effects (standing oscillating wave with a long wavelength) were not taken into account and the flood-inundation mapsreflect 11 stages (elevations) for Lake Champlain that are static for the study length of the lake. Near-real-time stages at this lake gage, and others on Lake Champlain, may be obtained on the Internet from the USGS National Water Information System at http://waterdata.usgs.gov/ or the National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http:/water.weather.gov/ahps/, which also forecasts flood hydrographs at the Richelieu River (Lake Champlain) at Rouses Point.Static flood boundary extents were determined for LakeChamplain in Addison, Chittenden, Franklin, and Grand Isle Counties in Vermont and northern Clinton County in New York using recently acquired (2013–2014) lidar (light detection and ranging) and may be referenced to any of the five USGS lake gages on Lake Champlain. Of these five lakgages, USGS lake gage 04295000, Richelieu River (Lake Champlain) at Rouses Point, N.Y., is the only USGS lake gage that is also a National Weather Service prediction location. Flood boundary extents for the Lake Champlain static flood-inundation map corresponding to the May 201 flood(103.2 feet [ft], National Geodetic Vertical Datum [NGVD] 29) were evaluated by comparing these boundary

Climate simulation and flood risk analysis for 2008-40 for Devils Lake, North Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vecchia, Aldo V.

2008-01-01

Devils Lake and Stump Lake in northeastern North Dakota receive surface runoff from a 3,810-square-mile drainage basin, and evaporation provides the only major water loss unless the lakes are above their natural spill elevation to the Sheyenne River. In September 2007, flow from Devils Lake to Stump Lake had filled Stump Lake and the two lakes consisted of essentially one water body with an elevation of 1,447.1 feet, about 3 feet below the existing base flood elevation (1,450 feet) and about 12 feet below the natural outlet elevation to the Sheyenne River (1,459 feet).Devils Lake could continue to rise, causing extensive additional flood damages in the basin and, in the event of an uncontrolled natural spill, downstream in the Red River of the North Basin. This report describes the results of a study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Federal Emergency Management Agency, to evaluate future flood risk for Devils Lake and provide information for developing updated flood-insurance rate maps and planning flood-mitigation activities such as raising levees or roads.In about 1980, a large, abrupt, and highly significant increase in precipitation occurred in the Devils Lake Basin and elsewhere in the Northern Great Plains, and wetter-than-normal conditions have persisted through the present (2007). Although future precipitation is impossible to predict, paleoclimatic evidence and recent research on climate dynamics indicate the current wet conditions are not likely to end anytime soon. For example, there is about a 72-percent chance wet conditions will last at least 10 more years and about a 37-percent chance wet conditions will last at least 30 more years.A stochastic simulation model for Devils Lake and Stump Lake developed in a previous study was updated and used to generate 10,000 potential future realizations, or traces, of precipitation, evaporation, inflow, and lake levels given existing conditions on September 30, 2007, and randomly

Extensive deposits on the Pacific plate from Late Pleistocene North American glacial lake outbursts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Normark, W.R.; Reid, J.A.

2003-01-01

One of the major unresolved issues of the Late Pleistocene catastrophic-flood events in the northwestern United States (e.g., from glacial Lake Missoula) has been what happened when the flood discharge reached the ocean. This study compiles available 3.5-kHz high-resolution and airgun seismic reflection data, long-range sidescan sonar images, and sediment core data to define the distribution of flood sediment in deepwater areas of the Pacific Ocean. Upon reaching the ocean at the mouth of the Columbia River near the present-day upper continental slope, sediment from the catastrophic floods continued flowing downslope as hyperpycnally generated turbidity currents. The turbidity currents resulting from the Lake Missoula and other latest Pleistocene floods followed the Cascadia Channel into and through the Blanco Fracture Zone and then flowed west to the Tufts Abyssal Plain. A small part of the flood sediment, which was stripped off the main flow at a bend in the Cascadia Channel at its exit point from the Blanco Fracture Zone, continued flowing more than 400 km to the south and reached the Escanaba Trough, a rift valley of the southern Gorda Ridge. Understanding the development of the pathway for the Late Pleistocene flood sediment reaching Escanaba Trough provides insight for understanding the extent of catastrophic flood deposits on the Pacific plate.

Annual glacier dammed lake drainage in Zackenberg, Northeast Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lane, Timothy; Adamson, Kathryn; Matthews, Tom

2016-04-01

A.P. Olsen is a 295 km2 ice cap in the Zackenberg region of Northeast Greenland (74.6° N, 21.5° W), 35 km from the ZERO Zackenberg Research Station. The ice cap lies on a gneissic plateau, covering an elevation of 200 to 1450 m a.s.l. A.P. Olsen mass balance has been monitored since 2008 and reconstructed for the period 1995-2007. Meltwater from this ice cap drains into the Zackenberg River, and into Young Sund via the Zackenberg Delta. One outlet dams a c. 0.8 km2 lake fed by the northern part of the ice cap. Observational data suggests this lake drains annually, flooding subglacially into the Zackenberg River. But the impacts of these flood events on the hydrology, sediment transfer, and geomorphology of the proglacial zone downstream have not been examined in detail. Understanding the impacts of glacial lake outburst flood events is important in the sensitive Arctic environment, where glacial change is rapid. We use Landsat scenes to reconstruct lake extent from 1999-2015. This is compared to Zackenberg River discharge measurements, available from the ZERO Zackenberg monitoring programme. These datasets are used to examine the nature and timing of flood events, and assess the impacts on the Zackenberg river downstream.

Sedimentary and rock magnetic signatures and event scenarios of deglacial outburst floods from the Laurentian Channel Ice Stream

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leng, Wei; von Dobeneck, Tilo; Bergmann, Fenna; Just, Janna; Mulitza, Stefan; Chiessi, Cristiano M.; St-Onge, Guillaume; Piper, David J. W.

2018-04-01

Eastern Canadian margin sediments bear testimony to several catastrophic deglacial meltwater discharges from the retreating Laurentide Ice Sheet. The reddish-brown plumite layers deposited on the levees of the Laurentian Fan valleys have been recognized as indications of multiple outburst floods between Heinrich events 2 and 1. Five event layers have been consistently recorded in three new gravity cores retrieved on the SW Grand Banks slope and comply with the previously published Laurentian Fan core MD95-2029. The apparently huge extent of these outburst plumes around the Laurentian Fan as well as their causes and consequences are investigated in this study using physical properties, rock magnetic and grain-size analyses, together with seismoacoustic profiling. We provide the first detailed 14C ages of the outburst event sequence and discuss their recurrence intervals in the context of regional ice retreat. Compared to the hemipelagic interlayers, event layers have overall uniform and systematic changes of rock-magnetic properties. Hematite contents increase over time and proximally while magnetite grain sizes fine upwards and spatially away from the fan. Based on the sediment composition and load, we argue that these plumites were formed by recurrent erosion of glacial mud deposits in the Laurentian Channel by meltwater outbursts. Three alternative glaciological scenarios are evaluated: in each case, the provenance of the transported sediment is not an indicator of the precise source of the meltwater.

Rapid Expansion of Glacial Lakes Caused by Climate and Glacier Retreat in the Central Himalayas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, W.

2016-12-01

Glacial lake outburst floods are among the most serious natural hazards in the Himalayas. Such floods are of high scientific and political importance because they exert trans-boundary impacts on bordering countries. The preparation of an updated inventory of glacial lakes and the analysis of their evolution are an important first step in assessment of hazards from glacial lake outbursts. Here, we report the spatiotemporal developments of the glacial lakes in the Poiqu River basin, a trans-boundary basin in the Central Himalayas, from 1976 to 2010 based on multi-temporal Landsat images. Studied glacial lakes are classified as glacierfed lakes and non-glacier-fed lakes according to their hydrologic connection to glacial watersheds. A total of 119 glacial lakes larger than 0.01 km2 with an overall surface area of 20.22 km2 (±10.8%) were mapped in 2010, with glacier-fed lakes being predominant in both number (69, 58.0%) and area (16.22 km2, 80.2%). We found that lakes connected to glacial watersheds (glacier-fed lakes) significantly expanded (122.1%) from 1976 to 2010, whereas lakes not connected to glacial watersheds (non-glacier-fed lakes) remained stable (+2.8%) during the same period. This contrast can be attributed to the impact of glaciers. Retreating glaciers not only supply meltwater to lakes but also leave space for them to expand. Compared with other regions of the Hindu Kush Himalayas (HKH), the lake area per glacier area in the Poiqu River basin was the highest. This observation might be attributed to the different climate regimes and glacier status along the HKH. The results presented in this study confirm the significant role of glacier retreat on the evolution of glacial lakes.

Pleistocene glaciers, lakes, and floods in north-central Washington State

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waitt, Richard B.; Haugerud, Ralph A.; Kelsey, Harvey M.

2017-01-01

The Methow, Chelan, Wenatchee, and other terrane blocks accreted in late Mesozoic to Eocene times. Methow valley is excavated in an exotic terrane of folded Mesozoic sedimentary and volcanic rocks faulted between crystalline blocks. Repeated floods of Columbia River Basalt about 16 Ma drowned a backarc basin to the southeast. Cirques, aretes, and U-shaped hanging troughs brand the Methow, Skagit, and Chelan headwaters. The Late Wisconsin Cordilleran icesheet beveled the alpine topography and deposited drift. Cordilleran ice flowed into the heads of Methow tributaries and overflowed from Skagit tributaries to greatly augment Chelan trough's glacier. Joined Okanogan and Methow ice flowed down Columbia valley and up lower Chelan trough. This tongue met the icesheet tongue flowing southeast down Chelan valley. Successively lower ice-marginal channels and kame terraces show that the icesheet withered away largely by downwasting. Immense late Wisconsin floods from glacial Lake Missoula occasionally swept the Chelan-Vantage reach of Columbia valley by different routes. The earliest debacles, nearly 19,000 cal yr BP (by radiocarbon methods), raged 335 m deep down the Columbia and built high Pangborn bar at Wenatchee. As Cordilleran ice blocked the northwest of Columbia valley, several giant floods descended Moses Coulee and backflooded up the Columbia. As advancing ice then blocked Moses Coulee, Grand Coulee to Quincy basin became the westmost floodway. From Quincy basin many Missoula floods backflowed 50 km upvalley past Wenatchee 18,000 to 15,500 years ago. Receding ice dammed glacial Lake Columbia centuries more--till it burst about 15,000 years ago. After Glacier Peak ashfall about 13,600 years ago, smaller great flood(s) swept down the Columbia from glacial Lake Kootenay in British Columbia. A cache of huge fluted Clovis points had been laid atop Pangborn bar (East Wenatchee) after the Glacier Peak ashfall. Clovis people came two and a half millennia after the last

Glacial lakes in South Tyrol: distribution, evolution and potential for GLOFs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schug, Marie-Claire; Mergili, Martin

2017-04-01

All over the world glaciers are currently retreating, leading to the formation or growth of glacial lakes. Some of these lakes are susceptible to sudden drainage. In order to assess the danger of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) in South Tyrol in the Italian Alps, we present (i) an inventory of lakes, (ii) an analysis of the development of selected glacial lakes since 1945, and (iii) the susceptibility to and the possible impact areas of GLOFs. The inventory includes 1010 lakes that are larger than 250 m2 at an elevation above 2000 m asl, most of them of glacial origin. These lakes are mapped manually from orthophotos. Apart from collecting information on the spatial distribution of these lakes, the inventory lists dam material, glacier contact, and further parameters. 89% of the lakes in the investigation area are impounded by bedrock, whereas 93% of the lakes are detached from the associated glacier. The majority of lakes is small to medium sized (<5000 m2). Between 1999 and 2011 60% of all lakes remained stable in size. Only 16% of the lakes grew in this period of time. This is particularly true for lakes in proximity to a glacier. Ten selected lakes are analyzed in detail in the field and from multi-temporal orthophotos, including the development of lake size and surroundings in the period since 1945. The majority of the selected lakes, however, was first recorded on orthophotos from the early 1980s. Eight of ten lakes grew significantly in that period. But when the lakes detached from the glacier until the early 2000s, the growth slowed down or ceased. Based on the current development of the selected lakes we conclude that the close surroundings of these lakes have stabilised and the lakes' susceptibility to an outburst has thus decreased. We further conduct broad-scale analyses of the susceptibility of the mapped lakes to GLOFs, and of the potential reach of possible GLOFs. The tool r.glachaz is used to determine the potentially dangerous lakes. Even

Computational Fluid Dynamics simulations of the Late Pleistocene Lake Bonneville Flood

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abril-Hernández, José M.; Periáñez, Raúl; O'Connor, Jim E.; Garcia-Castellanos, Daniel

2018-06-01

At approximately 18.0 ka, pluvial Lake Bonneville reached its maximum level. At its northeastern extent it was impounded by alluvium of the Marsh Creek Fan, which breached at some point north of Red Rock Pass (Idaho), leading to one of the largest floods on Earth. About 5320 km3 of water was discharged into the Snake River drainage and ultimately into the Columbia River. We use a 0D model and a 2D non-linear depth-averaged hydrodynamic model to aid understanding of outflow dynamics, specifically evaluating controls on the amount of water exiting the Lake Bonneville basin exerted by the Red Rock Pass outlet lithology and geometry as well as those imposed by the internal lake geometry of the Bonneville basin. These models are based on field evidence of prominent lake levels, hypsometry and terrain elevations corrected for post-flood isostatic deformation of the lake basin, as well as reconstructions of the topography at the outlet for both the initial and final stages of the flood. Internal flow dynamics in the northern Lake Bonneville basin during the flood were affected by the narrow passages separating the Cache Valley from the main body of Lake Bonneville. This constriction imposed a water-level drop of up to 2.7 m at the time of peak-flow conditions and likely reduced the peak discharge at the lake outlet by about 6%. The modeled peak outlet flow is 0.85·106 m3 s-1. Energy balance calculations give an estimate for the erodibility coefficient for the alluvial Marsh Creek divide of ∼0.005 m y-1 Pa-1.5, at least two orders of magnitude greater than for the underlying bedrock at the outlet. Computing quasi steady-state water flows, water elevations, water currents and shear stresses as a function of the water-level drop in the lake and for the sequential stages of erosion in the outlet gives estimates of the incision rates and an estimate of the outflow hydrograph during the Bonneville Flood: About 18 days would have been required for the outflow to grow from 10

Computational fluid dynamics simulations of the Late Pleistocene Lake Bonneville flood

USGS Publications Warehouse

Abril-Hernández, José M.; Periáñez, Raúl; O'Connor, Jim E.; Garcia-Castellanos, Daniel

2018-01-01

At approximately 18.0 ka, pluvial Lake Bonneville reached its maximum level. At its northeastern extent it was impounded by alluvium of the Marsh Creek Fan, which breached at some point north of Red Rock Pass (Idaho), leading to one of the largest floods on Earth. About 5320 km3 of water was discharged into the Snake River drainage and ultimately into the Columbia River. We use a 0D model and a 2D non-linear depth-averaged hydrodynamic model to aid understanding of outflow dynamics, specifically evaluating controls on the amount of water exiting the Lake Bonneville basin exerted by the Red Rock Pass outlet lithology and geometry as well as those imposed by the internal lake geometry of the Bonneville basin. These models are based on field evidence of prominent lake levels, hypsometry and terrain elevations corrected for post-flood isostatic deformation of the lake basin, as well as reconstructions of the topography at the outlet for both the initial and final stages of the flood. Internal flow dynamics in the northern Lake Bonneville basin during the flood were affected by the narrow passages separating the Cache Valley from the main body of Lake Bonneville. This constriction imposed a water-level drop of up to 2.7 m at the time of peak-flow conditions and likely reduced the peak discharge at the lake outlet by about 6%. The modeled peak outlet flow is 0.85·106 m3 s−1. Energy balance calculations give an estimate for the erodibility coefficient for the alluvial Marsh Creek divide of ∼0.005 m y−1 Pa−1.5, at least two orders of magnitude greater than for the underlying bedrock at the outlet. Computing quasi steady-state water flows, water elevations, water currents and shear stresses as a function of the water-level drop in the lake and for the sequential stages of erosion in the outlet gives estimates of the incision rates and an estimate of the outflow hydrograph during the Bonneville Flood: About 18 days would have been required for the

Effects of 500 years of eutrophication and flooding control on lowland lake development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirilova, E.; van Hardenbroek, M.; Heiri, O.; Cremer, H.; Lotter, A. F.

2009-04-01

Nutrient enrichment and the ecology of surface waters have been intensively studied in lowland regions. However, detailed palaeolimnological reconstructions of the trophic and flooding history of floodplain lakes are still rare. In the Netherlands dike-breaches caused by high floods of the river Rhine formed a new type of lake since the Middle Ages. These dike-breach lakes were strongly impacted by the development of channel systems in their catchment, agriculture, and repeated flooding events. Here we present a multiproxy palaeolimnological study of past nutrient loading and ecology of the dike-breach lake De Waay which is located on the Rhine-Meuse delta (The Netherlands). The lake was created in A.D. 1496 as a result of damage done to a dike by floating ice and the subsequent dike-breach due to a flooding event. A sediment core of 11.5 m was recovered from Lake De Waay and diatoms, Cladocera, and geochemistry were analyzed in the sediment. From the beginning of the lake's existence to the end of the 18th century diatom-inferred total phosphorus (TP) concentrations were above 300 µg/l, suggesting hypertrophic conditions. Cladoceran assemblages reflect the lake's pioneer stage and suggest a lack of rooted aquatic macrophytes resulting from low water-transparency, possibly caused by frequent floods. Until the late 18th century floods occurred regularly in the area, as shown by the elevated Ti values in the sediments, indicative of high erosion from the floodplain and runoff from the surrounding agricultural catchment. This caused the exceptionally high sedimentation rates and elevated nutrient contents of the lake waters. Since the beginning of the 19th century sewage input and flooding frequency were strongly reduced by the construction of new ditches, canals, and dikes. The improved sewage and dike systems are reflected by decreased TP concentrations of 40-150 µg/l. The increased stability of littoral habitats led to an increased diversity in the Cladocera

Flood frequency matters: Why climate change degrades deep-water quality of peri-alpine lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fink, Gabriel; Wessels, Martin; Wüest, Alfred

2016-09-01

Sediment-laden riverine floods transport large quantities of dissolved oxygen into the receiving deep layers of lakes. Hence, the water quality of deep lakes is strongly influenced by the frequency of riverine floods. Although flood frequency reflects climate conditions, the effects of climate variability on the water quality of deep lakes is largely unknown. We quantified the effects of climate variability on the potential shifts in the flood regime of the Alpine Rhine, the main catchment of Lake Constance, and determined the intrusion depths of riverine density-driven underflows and the subsequent effects on water exchange rates in the lake. A simplified hydrodynamic underflow model was developed and validated with observed river inflow and underflow events. The model was implemented to estimate underflow statistics for different river inflow scenarios. Using this approach, we integrated present and possible future flood frequencies to underflow occurrences and intrusion depths in Lake Constance. The results indicate that more floods will increase the number of underflows and the intensity of deep-water renewal - and consequently will cause higher deep-water dissolved oxygen concentrations. Vice versa, fewer floods weaken deep-water renewal and lead to lower deep-water dissolved oxygen concentrations. Meanwhile, a change from glacial nival regime (present) to a nival pluvial regime (future) is expected to decrease deep-water renewal. While flood frequencies are not expected to change noticeably for the next decades, it is most likely that increased winter discharge and decreased summer discharge will reduce the number of deep density-driven underflows by 10% and favour shallower riverine interflows in the upper hypolimnion. The renewal in the deepest layers is expected to be reduced by nearly 27%. This study underlines potential consequences of climate change on the occurrence of deep river underflows and water residence times in deep lakes.

The 2012 Seti River flood disaster and alpine cryospheric hazards facing Pokhara, Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kargel, Jeffrey; Leonard, Gregory; Paudel, Lalu; Regmi, Dhananjay; Bajracharya, Samjwal; Fort, Monique; Joshi, Sharad; Poudel, Khagendra; Thapa, Bhabana; Watanabe, Teiji

2014-05-01

We have identified the likeliest cause of the Seti River disaster of May 5, 2012, in which a flash flood killed or left missing 72 people. A cascade of deadly physical Earth processes combined with imprudent habitation on the lowest flood terraces and floodplain. The process cascade started with rockfalls into the Seti River gorge (observed via repeat ASTER imaging). The last rockfall-one to several weeks prior to the disaster-affected a knickpoint in the Seti River gorge and impounded glacial meltwater and spring snowmelt. The trigger was a large rock/ice avalanche originating from cornice ice on Annapurna IV, where part of the mass was channeled into the impoundment reservoir. That violent ground-surge event, plus possibly an air blast caused by a violent gravity flow of airborne debris-then burst the rockfall dam. This was not a glacier lake outburst flood. Glaciers were involved in the disaster by supplying meltwater, which was impounded by the rockfall dam, by triggering the disaster with collapse of cornice ice, and by contributing ice to the landslide and outburst flood. Debuttressing of moraine debris and ancient glacial lake sediment by retreat and thinning of glaciers also may have played a role-this is the only possible indirect link of the disaster to climate change. The rockfall and avalanche mass movements occurred independently of climate change. The narrow and easily blocked Seti River gorge was a key factor in the 2012 disaster, and it remains a unique component of this physiographic setting. A similar flood in this area may happen by a different cascade of Earth surface processes. An enormous mass of ancient unconsolidated glaciolacustrine and moraine sediment-many cubic kilometers-was discovered and is vulnerable to production of debris flows and hyperconcentrated slurry flows. Some aggravating processes occurring in the Sabche Cirque are related to climate change. Glaciers in that area are melting, and small lakes are forming. Although the lakes

Holocene flood stack from three Eifel maar lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brunck, Heiko; Sirocko, Frank

2015-04-01

Lacustrine sediments are very sensitive to natural and anthropogenically enviromental changes. Thus, lake sediments are excellent climate archives and can be used for reconstructions of past precipitation and flood events. However, we extend our flood record for MIS 2/3 to the entire Holocene up to recent years to get a complete flood stack for the last 60 000 years. The present study reconstructs paleo floods from event layers in the sediment, of Schalkenmehren Maar (SM3), Ulmen Maar (UM1) and Holzmaar (HM1) combined with recent gauge time-series. All three maar lakes has an inflow by a local stream. Accordingly the sedimentation rate is directly linked to runoff activity and the bioturbation was low so that event layers become visible, but varves are only preserved in lake Holzmaar. The maar sites are situated in the Eifel near to the town of Daun and were drilled in the ELSA (Eifel Laminated Sediment archive) project. The Eifel area is well suited to approximate Central European weather, because modern water level gauge data from Eifel rivers correlate with respective data from the Rhine (Wernli and Pfahl, 2009). Combined sedimentological, paleobotanical and geochemical data received from SM3, UM1 and HM1 builds the foundation of the 14C based chronology. The synchronisation of the record is controlled by tephra time markers and pollen. Both are used to align the main cores of the ELSA project and construct an integrated age model for the last 220 000 years [b2k] (Förster and Sirocko, 2014). For the extension of our MIS 2/3 flood stack we used the Laacher See Tephra (10 900 BC) as marker for the correlation with the Holocene cores. To study the flood events in detail, 10 cm long thin sections were used to distinguish flood layers from distal turbidites. Turbidites have a continuous grain size gradation; the grains size profile of flood events is in contrast characterized by several grain size maxima over the entire layer thickness. A flood event over several

Late Neolithic Mondsee Culture in Austria: living on lakes and living with flood risk?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swierczynski, T.; Lauterbach, S.; Dulski, P.; Brauer, A.

2013-07-01

Neolithic and Bronze Age lake dwellings in the European Alps became recently protected under the UNESCO World Heritage. However, only little is known about the cultural history of the related pre-historic communities, their adaptation strategies to environmental changes and particularly about the almost synchronous decline of many of these settlements around the transition from the Late Neolithic to the Early Bronze Age. For example, there is an ongoing debate whether the abandonment of Late Neolithic lake dwellings at Lake Mondsee (Upper Austria) was caused by unfavourable climate conditions or a single catastrophic event. Within the varved sediments of Lake Mondsee, we investigated the occurrence of intercalated detrital layers from major floods and debris flows to unravel extreme surface runoff recurrence during the Neolithic settlement period. A combination of detailed sediment microfacies analysis and μXRF element scanning allows distinguishing debris flow and flood deposits. A total of 60 flood and 12 debris flow event layers was detected between 7000 and 4000 varve years (vyr) BP. Compared to the centennial- to millennial-scale average, a period of increased runoff event frequency can be identified between 5900 and 4450 vyr BP. Enhanced flood frequency is accompanied by predominantly siliciclastic sediment supply between ca. 5500 and 5000 vyr BP and enhanced dolomitic sediment supply between 4900 and 4500 vyr BP. A change in the location and the construction technique of the Neolithic lake dwellings at Lake Mondsee can be observed during the period of higher flood frequency. While lake dwellings of the first settlement period (ca. 5800-5250 cal. yr BP) were constructed directly on the wetlands, later constructions (ca. 5400-4700 cal. yr BP) were built on piles upon the water, possibly indicating an adaptation to either increased flood risk or a general increase of the lake level. However, our results also indicate that other than climatic factors (e

Annually laminated lake sediments as recorders of flood events: evidence from combining monitoring and calibration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kämpf, Lucas; Brauer, Achim; Mueller, Philip; Güntner, Andreas; Merz, Bruno

2015-04-01

The relation of changing climate and the occurrence of strong flood events has been controversially debated over the last years. One major limitation in this respect is the temporal extension of instrumental flood time series, rarely exceeding 50-100 years, which is too short to reflect the full range of natural climate variability in a region. Therefore, geoarchives are increasingly explored as natural flood recorders far beyond the range of instrumental flood time series. Annually laminated (varved) lake sediments provide particularly valuable archives since (i) lakes form ideal traps in the landscape continuously recording sediment flux from the catchment and (ii) individual flood events are recorded as detrital layers and can be dated with seasonal precision by varve counting. Despite the great potential of varved lake sediments for reconstructing long flood time series, there are still some confinements with respect to their interpretation due to a lack in understanding processes controlling the formation of detrital layers. For this purpose, we investigated the formation of detrital flood layers in Lake Mondsee (Upper Austria) in great detail by monitoring flood-related sediment flux and comparing detrital layers in sub-recent sediments with river runoff data. Sediment flux at the lake bottom was trapped over a three-year period (2011-2013) at two locations in Lake Mondsee, one located 0.9 km off the main inflow (proximal) and one in a more distal position at a distance of 2.8 km. The monitoring data include 26 floods of different amplitude (max. hourly discharge=10-110 cbm/s) which triggered variable fluxes of catchment sediment to the lake floor (4-760 g/(sqm*d)). The comparison of runoff and sediment data revealed empiric runoff thresholds for triggering significant detrital sediment influx to the proximal (20 cbm/s) and distal lake basin (30 cbm/s) and an exponential relation between runoff amplitude and the amount of deposited sediment. A succession of

Glacial Lake Growth and Associated Glacier Dynamics: Case Study from the Himalayas, Andes, Alaska and New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Binger, D. J.; Haritashya, U. K.; Kargel, J. S.; Shugar, D. H.

2016-12-01

Glacial lake growth and associated glacier dynamics: Case study from the Himalayas, Andes, Alaska and New Zealand David J. Binger1, Umesh K. Haritashya1 and Jeffrey S. Kargel21University of Dayton, Dayton, OH 2University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ As a result of climate change most of the world's alpine glaciers are undergoing measurable retreat and dynamic changes. The result of accelerated melting has led to the formation and growth of potentially dangerous glacial lakes. In this study, alpine glaciers and associated lakes from the Himalayas, Andes, Alaska and New Zealand, showing similar geomorphological settings were analyzed to compare differences in regional proglacial lake growth and its relationship with glacier dynamics. Specifically, we analyzed the surface area growth of the lakes, retreat of glacier terminus, changes in glacier velocity, surface temperature and potential glacial lake outburst flood triggers. Using Landsat and ASTER satellite images, Cosi - Corr software, and in house thermal mapping, 10 glaciers were analyzed and compared. Results show a substantial increase in proglacial lake surface area, accelerated velocity and significant calving of the glaciers. Glacier surface temperatures varied by location, with some remaining constant and others 2°C - 4°C increases; although increased surface temperature did not always show a direct correlation with increasing retreat rate. Lakes with high rates of surface area growth paired with glaciers with increased velocity and calving could prove to be unsustainable and lead to an increased risk for glacial lake outburst floods. Overall, result show the changing dynamics of the alpine glaciers in different mountain regions and the growth of their proglacial lakes.

Repeated megafloods from glacial Lake Vitim, Siberia, to the Arctic Ocean over the past 60,000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Margold, Martin; Jansen, John D.; Codilean, Alexandru T.; Preusser, Frank; Gurinov, Artem L.; Fujioka, Toshiyuki; Fink, David

2018-05-01

Cataclysmic outburst floods transformed landscapes and caused abrupt climate change during the last deglaciation. Whether such events have also characterized previous deglaciations is not known. Arctic marine cores hint at megafloods prior to Oxygen Isotope Stage (OIS) 2, but the overprint of successive glaciations means that geomorphological traces of ancient floods remain scarce in Eurasia and North America. Here we present the first well-constrained terrestrial megaflood record to be linked with Arctic archives. Based on cosmogenic-nuclide exposure dating and optically stimulated luminescence dating applied to glacial-lake sediments, a 300-m deep bedrock spillway, and giant eddy-bars > 200-m high, we reconstruct a history of cataclysmic outburst floods from glacial Lake Vitim, Siberia, to the Arctic Ocean over the past 60,000-years. Three megafloods have reflected the rhythm of Eurasian glaciations, leaving traces that stretch more than 3500 km to the Lena Delta. The first flood was coincident with deglaciation from OIS-4 and the largest meltwater spike in Arctic marine-cores within the past 100,000 years (isotope-event 3.31 at 55.5 ka). The second flood marked the lead up to the local Last Glacial Maximum, and the third flood occurred during the last deglaciation. This final 3000 km3 megaflood stands as one of the largest freshwater floods ever documented, with peak discharge of 4.0-6.5 million m3s-1, mean flow depths of 120-150 m, and average flow velocities up to 21 m s-1.

New lakes in deglaciating high-mountain areas: Regional intercomparison of current and future risks from impact waves due to rock/ice avalanches in the Swiss Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaub, Y.; Huggel, C.; Serraino, M.; Haeberli, W.

2012-04-01

The changes in high-mountain environments are increasingly fast and complex. GIS-based models of the Swiss Alps show that numerous topographic overdeepenings are likely to appear on progressively exposed glacier beds, which are considered as potential sites of future lake formation. In many cases these newly forming lakes will be situated in an over-steepened and destabilized high-mountain environment and are, therefore, prone to impact waves from landslides. The risk of glacier lake outburst floods, endangering infrastructure, residential areas and persons further downvalley, is increasing with further lake formation and glacier recession. This risk may persist for many decades if not centuries. Future-oriented hazard assessments have to be integrative and must deal with all possible process chains. Reference studies and methodologies are still scarce, however. We present an approach to compare risks resulting from high-mountain lakes in the Swiss Alps amongst each other. Already existing lakes are thereby as much included in the analysis as future ones. The presented risk assessment approach integrates the envisaged high-mountain hazard process chain with present and future socio-economic conditions. Applying the concept of integral risk management, the hazard and damage potentials have to be analyzed. The areas that feature the topographic potential for rock/iceavalanches to reach a lake were analyzed regarding their susceptibility to slope failure including the factors slope inclination, permafrost occurrence, glacier recession and bedrock lithology. Together with the analysis of the lakes (volume and runout path of potential outburst floods), the hazard analysis of the process chain was completed. As an example, high long-term hazard potentials in the Swiss Alps have, for instance, to be expected in the area of the Great Aletsch glacier. A methodology for the assessment of the damage potential was elaborated and will be presented. In order to estimate the

Analysis of the Tonle Sap Flood Pulse Based on Remote Sensing: how much does Tonle Sap Lake Affect the Mekong River Flood?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qu, W.; Hu, N.; Fu, J.; Lu, J.; Lu, H.; Lei, T.; Pang, Z.; Li, X.; Li, L.

2018-04-01

The economic value of the Tonle Sap Lake Floodplain to Cambodia is among the highest provided to a nation by a single ecosystem around the world. The flow of Mekong River is the primary factor affecting the Tonle Sap Lake Floodplain. The Tonle Sap Lake also plays a very important role in regulating the downstream flood of Mekong River. Hence, it is necessary to understand its temporal changes of lake surface and water storage and to analyse its relation with the flood processes of Mekong River. Monthly lake surface and water storage from July 2013 to May 2014 were first monitored based on remote sensing data. The relationship between water surface and accumulative water storage change was then established. In combination with hydrological modelling results of Mekong River Basin, the relation between the lake's water storage and the runoff of Mekong River was analysed. It is found that the water storage has a sharp increase from September to December and, after reaching its maximum in December, water storage quickly decreases with a 38.8 billion m3 of drop in only half month time from December to January, while it keeps rather stable at a lower level in other months. There is a two months' time lag between the maximum lake water storage and the Mekong River peak flood, which shows the lake's huge flood regulation role to downstream Mekong River. It shows that this remote sensing approach is feasible and reliable in quantitative monitoring of data scarce lakes.

Evaluating Capability of Devils Lake Emergency Outlets in Lowering Lake Water Levels While Controlling flooding Damage to Downstream

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scanlon, B. R.; Zhang, Z.; Sun, A.; Save, H.; Mueller Schmied, H.; Wada, Y.; Doll, P. M.; Eisner, S.

2016-12-01

Devils Lake is an endorheic lake locate in the Red River of the North Basin with a natural outlet at a level of 444.7 meters above the sea level flowing into the Sheyenne River. Historical accumulation of salts has dramatically increased the concentration of salts in the lake, particularly of the sulfates, that are much greater than the surrounding water bodies. Since 1993, the lake water level has risen by nearly 10 meters and caused extensive flooding in the surrounding area, and greatly increased the chance of natural spillage to the Sheyenne River. To mitigate Devils Lake flooding and to prevent its natural spillage, two outlets were constructed at the west and east sides of the lake to drain the water to the Sheyenne River in a controlled fashion. However, pumping water from Devils Lake has degraded water quality of the Sheyenne River. In an earlier study, we coupled Soil and Water Assessment Tools (SWAT) and CE-QUAL-W2 models to investigate the changes of sulfate distribution as the lake water level rises. We found that, while operating the two outlets has lowered Devils Lake water level by 0.7 meter, it has also significantly impaired the Sheyenne River water quality, increasing the Sheyenne River average sulfate concentration from 105 to 585 mg l-1 from 2012 to 2014 In this study, we investigate the impact of the outlets on the Sheyenne River floodplain by coupling SWAT and HEC-RAS model. The SWAT model performed well in simulating daily streamflow in the Sheyenne River with R2>0.56 and ENS > 0.52. The simulated water depths and floodplain by HEC-RAS model for the Sheyenne River agreed well with observations. Operating the outlets from April to October can draw down the Devil Lake water level by 0.45 m, but the drained water would almost double the extension of the Sheyenne River floodplain and elevate the sulfate concentration in the Sheyenne River above the 450 mg l-1 North Dakota sulfate concentration standard for stream class I. Operating the outlets is

Evaluating Capability of Devils Lake Emergency Outlets in Lowering Lake Water Levels While Controlling flooding Damage to Downstream

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shabani, A.; Zhang, X.

2017-12-01

Devils Lake is an endorheic lake locate in the Red River of the North Basin with a natural outlet at a level of 444.7 meters above the sea level flowing into the Sheyenne River. Historical accumulation of salts has dramatically increased the concentration of salts in the lake, particularly of the sulfates, that are much greater than the surrounding water bodies. Since 1993, the lake water level has risen by nearly 10 meters and caused extensive flooding in the surrounding area, and greatly increased the chance of natural spillage to the Sheyenne River. To mitigate Devils Lake flooding and to prevent its natural spillage, two outlets were constructed at the west and east sides of the lake to drain the water to the Sheyenne River in a controlled fashion. However, pumping water from Devils Lake has degraded water quality of the Sheyenne River. In an earlier study, we coupled Soil and Water Assessment Tools (SWAT) and CE-QUAL-W2 models to investigate the changes of sulfate distribution as the lake water level rises. We found that, while operating the two outlets has lowered Devils Lake water level by 0.7 meter, it has also significantly impaired the Sheyenne River water quality, increasing the Sheyenne River average sulfate concentration from 105 to 585 mg l-1 from 2012 to 2014 In this study, we investigate the impact of the outlets on the Sheyenne River floodplain by coupling SWAT and HEC-RAS model. The SWAT model performed well in simulating daily streamflow in the Sheyenne River with R2>0.56 and ENS > 0.52. The simulated water depths and floodplain by HEC-RAS model for the Sheyenne River agreed well with observations. Operating the outlets from April to October can draw down the Devil Lake water level by 0.45 m, but the drained water would almost double the extension of the Sheyenne River floodplain and elevate the sulfate concentration in the Sheyenne River above the 450 mg l-1 North Dakota sulfate concentration standard for stream class I. Operating the outlets is

Lake Sediments show the Frequency of 21st Century Extreme Flooding in the UK is Unprecedented

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiverrell, R. C.; Sear, D. A.; Warburton, J.; Macdonald, N.; Schillereff, D. N.; Dearing, J.; Croudace, I. W. C.

2016-12-01

Flooding in northwest England has been reconstructed from the coarse grained units preserved in lake sediment sequences at Bassenthwaite Lake, a record that includes the floods of December 2015 (Storm Desmond) and November 2009 and shows they were the most extreme in over 600 years. The inception and propagation of a lake sediment flood event horizon in the aftermath of the December 2015 storms in the UK has been explored as part of NERC Urgency Grant that focuses on Bassenthwaite Lake, Brotherswater, Buttermere and Ullswater. Our approach involves repeat coring of locations over 6-12 months, sediment trapping, and testing how this recent extreme event has settled into the sediment record. For Bassenthwaite Lake linking our new sediment palaeoflood series to river discharges, provides the first assessment of flood frequency and magnitude based on lake sediments for the UK. We show that recent devastating flooding in NW England in 2009 was the largest event in 415 years, had a recurrence interval far larger (1:9000 year) than conventional analysis based on short term records suggest (1:700 year), and occurred during a cluster of floods that is unprecedented in 600 years. Particle size characteristics of flood laminations, after correction for variations in the stability of catchment sediment sources, were correlated on a hydrodynamic basis with recorded river flows. The particle size flood record is underpinned by a robust chronology to CE 1420 derived from radionuclide (Pb210, Am241, and Cs137) dating and correlations to the rich history of metal (Pb, Zn, Ba and Cu) mining in the catchment accurately recorded in the sediment geochemistry. The sediment palaeoflood series reveals five flood rich periods (CE 1460-1500, 1580-1680, 1780-1820, 1850-1925, 1970-present), and these correspond with positive phases of reconstructed winter NAOI and other Atlantic circulation patterns. The hydro-climatology of the extreme events (top 1% of floods) in our series, show that 67

Large basal crevasses as a proxy for historic subglacial flooding events on Byrd Glacier

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Child, S. F.; Stearns, L. A.; van der Veen, C. J.; Hamilton, G. S.

2016-12-01

Active networks of subglacial lakes have recently been found beneath the Antarctic Ice Sheet. On Byrd Glacier, East Antarctica, a subglacial lake outburst event in 2005/07 led to a short-lived glacier acceleration. Due to the sparse record of historical observations, it is unclear how frequently these outburst events occur, and the role they play in the dynamics of Antarctic outlet glaciers. Crevasses form when the tensile stress is greater than the fracture strength of ice. High extensional strain rates often exist at the grounding line where grounded ice begins to float. We hypothesize that the formation of anomalously large basal crevasses coincides with the higher strain rates observed during flooding events. In this study, we use the location of large basal crevasses ( 330 m tall), located along the floating portion of the Byrd Glacier flowline, to create a timeline of past flooding events. We first model crevasse formation to demonstrate that basal crevasses likely form at the grounding line. To do this, we use linear elastic fracture mechanics (LEFM) to estimate crevasse heights based on strain rates during known flood (300-350 m) and non-flood (100-150 m) time periods at Byrd Glacier's grounding line. Basal crevasse locations and heights are determined directly from radar echograms (2011/12 CReSIS radar data and 1974/75 SPRI NSF TUD radar data) along the Byrd Glacier flowline. We also use the locations of large surface depressions to infer the presence of basal crevasses. When crevasses penetrate a threshold proportion of the ice column, the overlying ice is no longer supported and a surface depression forms. We identify 22 large basal crevasses through these combined methods; the oldest crevasse likely formed 600 years ago. This research provides a framework of Antarctic subglacial flooding frequency and the effects that subglacial water drainage events have on outlet glacier dynamics.

Hydraulics of outburst floods spilling over a steep-walled canyon: Implications for paleo-discharges on Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lapotre, Mathieu; Lamb, Michael

2013-04-01

Canyons carved by outburst floods are common landforms on Earth and Mars. These canyons are generally found in fractured basalts and jointed sedimentary rocks. Flood-carved canyons commonly have steep headwalls and a roughly constant width, and are often thought to have formed from upstream headwall propagation due to waterfall erosion. Because morphology is readily available from satellite imagery, these canyons offer a unique opportunity to quantify the discharge of rare, catastrophic paleo-floods on Earth and Mars. However, mechanistic relationships that relate canyon size to flood discharge have yet to be developed. We propose that the width of a canyon headwall in fractured rock is set by the spatial distribution of erosion around the rim of the canyon, which is controlled by the distribution of shear stresses induced by the overflowing water as it is focused into the canyon head. We test this hypothesis by performing a series of numerical simulations of flood-water focusing using ANUGA Hydro, a 2D-depth averaged, fully turbulent, hydraulic numerical modeling suite allowing for Froude-number transitions. The numerical simulations were designed to explore five dimensionless variables: the aspect ratio of the canyon (length normalized by width), the canyon width to flood-water width ratio, the canyon width to normal-flow depth ratio, the Froude number, and the topographic gradient upstream of the canyon. Preliminary results show that flow focusing leads to increased shear stresses at the canyon head compared to the sides of the canyon for subcritical floods and higher canyon aspect ratios. This suggests that proto-canyons start growing from a topographic defect in all directions until they reach a critical length for the side walls to dry. Once this critical length is attained, canyons focus most of the flood waters into their heads, and propagate upstream only, maintaining roughly constant widths. Preliminary results suggest that canyon width may be used to

Estimated flood flows in the Lake Tahoe basin, California and Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crompton, E. James; Hess, Glen W.; Williams, Rhea P.

2002-01-01

Lake Tahoe, the largest alpine lake in North America, covers about 192 square miles (mi2) of the 506-mi2 Lake Tahoe Basin, which straddles the border between California and Nevada (Fig. 1). In cooperation with the Nevada Department of Transportation (NDOT), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) estimates the flood frequencies of the streams that enter the lake. Information about potential flooding of these streams is used by NDOT in the design and construction of roads and highways in the Nevada portion of the basin. The stream-monitoring network in the Lake Tahoe Basin is part of the Lake Tahoe Interagency Monitoring Program (LTIMP), which combines the monitoring and research efforts of various Federal, State, and regional agencies, including both USGS and NDOT. The altitude in the basin varies from 6,223 feet (ft) at the lake's natural rim to over 10,000 ft along the basin's crest. Precipitation ranges from 40 inches per year (in/yr) on the eastern side to 90 in/yr on the western side (Crippen and Pavelka, 1970). Most of the precipitation comes during the winter months as snow. Precipitation that falls from June through September accounts for less than 20 percent of the annual total.

Periodic jökulhlaups from Pleistocene glacial Lake Missoula-New evidence from varved sediment in northern Idaho and Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waitt, Richard B.

1984-01-01

Newly examined exposures in northern Idaho and Washington show that catastrophic floods from glacial Lake Missoula during late Wisconsin time were repeated, brief jökulhlaups separated by decades of quiet glaciolacustrine and subaerial conditions. Glacial Priest Lake, dammed in the Priest River valley by a tongue of the Purcell trench lobe of the Cordilleran ice sheet, generally accumulated varved mud; the varved mud is sharply interrupted by 14 sand beds deposited by upvalley-running currents. The sand beds are texturally and structurally similar to slackwater sediment in valleys in southern Washington that were backflooded by outbursts from glacial Lake Missoula. Beds of varved mud also accumulated in glacial Lake Spokane (or Columbia?) in Latah Creek valley and elsewhere in northeastern Washington; the mud beds were disrupted, in places violently, during emplacement of each of 16 or more thick flood-gravel beds. This history corroborates evidence from southern Washington that only one graded bed is deposited per flood, refuting a conventional idea that many beds accumulated per flood. The total number of such floodlaid beds in stratigraphic succession near Spokane is at least 28. The mud beds between most of the floodlaid beds in these valleys each consist of between 20 and 55 silt-to-clay varves. Lacustrine environments in northern Idaho and Washington therefore persisted for two to six decades between regularly recurring, colossal floods from glacial Lake Missoula.

Sediment dynamics in a large shallow lake characterized by seasonal flood pulse in Southeast Asia.

PubMed

Siev, Sokly; Yang, Heejun; Sok, Ty; Uk, Sovannara; Song, Layheang; Kodikara, Dilini; Oeurng, Chantha; Hul, Seingheng; Yoshimura, Chihiro

2018-08-01

Most of studies on sediment dynamics in stable shallow lakes focused on the resuspension process as it is the dominant process. However, understanding of sediment dynamics in a shallow lake influenced by flood pulse is unclear. We tested a hypothesis that floodplain vegetation plays as a significant role in lessening the intensity of resuspension process in a shallow lake characterized by the flood pulse system. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate sediment dynamics in this type of shallow lake. The target was Tonle Sap Lake (TSL), which is a large shallow lake influenced by a flood pulse system of Mekong River located in Southeast Asia. An extensive and seasonal sampling survey was conducted to measure total suspended solid (TSS) concentrations, sedimentation and resuspension rates in TSL and its 4 floodplain areas. The study revealed that sedimentation process was dominant (TSS ranged: 3-126mgL -1 ) in the high water period (September-December) while resuspension process was dominant (TSS ranged: 4-652mgL -1 ) only in the low water period (March-June). In addition, floodplain vegetation reduced the resuspension of sediment (up to 26.3%) in water. The implication of the study showed that resuspension is a seasonally dominant process in shallow lake influenced by the flood pulse system at least for the case of TSL. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling the GLOF Hazard Process Chain at Imja Lake in the Nepal Himalaya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lala, J.; McKinney, D. C.; Rounce, D.

2017-12-01

The Hindu Kush-Himalaya region contains more glacial ice than any other non-polar region on earth. Many glacial lakes in Nepal are held in place by natural moraine dams, which are inherently unstable. Avalanches or landslides entering glacial lakes can cause tsunami-like waves that can overtop the moraines and trigger glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF). Mass loss at the Imja glacier is the highest in the Mount Everest region, and contributes to the expansion of Imja Tsho, a lake with several villages downstream. A GLOF from the lake might destroy both property and human life, making an understanding of flood triggering processes beneficial for both the downstream villages and other GLOF-prone areas globally. The process chain for an avalanche-induced GLOF was modeled numerically. The volume and velocity of debris from avalanches entering various future lake extents were calculated using RAMMS. Resulting waves and downstream flooding were simulated using BASEMENT to evaluate erosion at the terminal moraine. Wave characteristics in BASEMENT were validated with empirical equations to ensure the proper transfer of momentum from the avalanche to the lake. Moraine erosion was determined for two geomorphologic scenarios: a site-specific scenario using field samples, and a worst-case scenario based on past literature. Both cases resulted in no flooding outside the river channel at downstream villages. Worst-case scenario geomorphology resulted in increased channelization of the lake outlet and some moraine erosion but no catastrophic collapse. Site-specific data yielded similar results but with even less erosion and downstream discharge. While the models confirmed that Imja Tsho is unlikely to produce a catastrophic GLOF in the near future, they also highlight the importance of continued monitoring of the lake. Furthermore, the ease and flexibility of these methods allows for their adoption by a wide range of stakeholders for modeling other high-risk lakes.

Satellite Monitoring of Pakistan's Rockslide-Dammed Lake Gojal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kargel, Jeffrey S.; Leonard, Gregory; Crippen, Robert E.; Delaney, Keith B.; Evans, Stephen G.; Schneider, Jean

2010-10-01

On 4 January 2010, a rockslide 1200 meters long, 350 meters wide, and 125 meters high dammed the Hunza River in Attabad, northern Pakistan, and formed Lake Gojal. The initial mass movement of rock killed 20 people and submerged several villages and 22 kilometers of the strategic Karakoram Highway linking Pakistan and China. Tens of thousands of people were displaced or cut off from overland connection with the rest of the country. On 29 May, the lake overflow began to pour through a spillway excavated by Pakistani authorities. On approximately 20 July, the lake attained a maximum depth of 119 meters and a torrent at least 9 meters deep issued over the spillway, according to Pakistan's National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA). To date, the natural dam is holding and eroding slowly. However, the threat of a catastrophic outburst flood remains.

Inventory and recently increasing GLOF susceptibility of glacial lakes in Sikkim, Eastern Himalaya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aggarwal, Suruchi; Rai, S. C.; Thakur, P. K.; Emmer, Adam

2017-10-01

Climatic changes alter the climate system, leading to a decrease of glacier mass volumes and swelling glacial lakes. This study provides a new inventory of glacial and high-altitude lakes for Sikkim, Eastern Himalaya, and evaluates the susceptibility of lakes to Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF). By using satellite data of high spatial resolution (5 m), we obtain 1104 glacial and high-altitude lakes with total area 30.498 km2, of which 472 have an area > 0.01 km2. Applying pre-defined GLOF susceptibility criteria on these 472 lakes yields 21 lakes susceptible to GLOF, which all increased in area from 1972-2015. Using Analytic Hierarchy Processes (AHP), the pairwise comparison matrix further reveals that 5 of these glacial lakes have low, 14 have medium and 2 have high GLOF susceptibility. Especially these 16 glacial lakes with high and medium GLOF susceptibility may threaten downstream communities and infrastructure and need further attention.

Changes in Rongbuk lake and Imja lake in the Everest region of Himalaya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, W.; Doko, T.; Liu, C.; Ichinose, T.; Fukui, H.; Feng, Q.; Gou, P.

2014-12-01

The Himalaya holds the world record in terms of range and elevation. It is one of the most extensively glacierized regions in the world except the Polar Regions. The Himalaya is a region sensitive to climate change. Changes in the glacial regime are indicators of global climate changes. Since the second half of the last century, most Himalayan glaciers have melted due to climate change. These changes directly affected the changes of glacial lakes in the Himalayan region due to the glacier retreat. New glacial lakes are formed, and a number of them have expanded in the Everest region of the Himalayas. This paper focuses on the two glacial lakes which are Imja Lake, located at the southern slope, and Rongbuk Lake, located at the northern slope in the Mt. Everest region, Himalaya to present the spatio-temporal changes from 1976 to 2008. Topographical conditions between two lakes were different (Kruskal-Wallis test, p < 0.05). Rongbuk Lake was located at 623 m higher than Imja Lake, and radiation of Rongbuk Lake was higher than the Imja Lake. Although size of Imja Lake was larger than the Rongbuk Lake in 2008, the growth speed of Rongbuk Lake was accelerating since 2000 and exceeds Imja Lake in 2000-2008. This trend of expansion of Rongbuk Lake is anticipated to be continued in the 21st century. Rongbuk Lake would be the biggest potential risk of glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) at the Everest region of Himalaya in the future.

Massive Freshwater discharges: an example from Glacial Lake Missoula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopes, C.; Mix, A. C.

2016-12-01

Massive inputs of freshwater into the ocean are known to disrupt climate. This has been fairly studied in the North Atlantic with freshwater inputs from the Laurentide ice sheet and glacial Lake Agassiz. The association of these discharges with global warming has lead us to look for such prints in marine sediments. Here we show the records of Glacial Lake Missoula outbursts during the warming singe the Last Glacial Maximum in two marine cores off Oregon and California that show the presence of freshwater diatoms that are linked to massive discharges of freshwater from the glacial lake Missoula. The dynamics and timing of these north Pacific mega-flood events are fairly constrained by terrestrial records, however, the consequences of such discharges of freshwater in the northeast Pacific regional circulation remains unknown. Nevertheless we were able to estimate a salinity decrease of almost 6.0 PSU more than 400 km to the south (off northern California) during the last glacial interval (from 16-31 calendar (cal) k.y. B.P.). Anomalously high abundances of freshwater diatoms in marine sediments from the region precede generally accepted dates for the existence of glacial Lake Missoula, implying that large flooding events were also common during the advance of the Cordilleran Ice Sheet.

Changing climate in the Lake Superior region: a case study of the June 2012 flood and its effects on the western-lake water column

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minor, E. C.; Forsman, B.; Guildford, S. J.

2013-12-01

In Lake Superior, the world's largest freshwater lake by area, we are seeing annual surface-water temperature increases outpacing those of the overlying atmosphere. We are also seeing ever earlier onsets of water-column stratification (in data sets from the mid-1980s to the present). In Minnesota, including the Lake Superior watershed, precipitation patterns are also shifting toward fewer and more extreme storm events, such as the June 2012 solstice flood, which impacted the western Lake Superior basin. We are interested in how such climatological changes will affect nutrient and carbon biogeochemistry in Lake Superior. The lake is currently an oligotrophic system exhibiting light limitation of primary production in winter and spring, with summer primary production generally limited by phosphorus and sometimes co-limited by iron. Analyses in the western arm of Lake Superior showed that the June 2012 flood brought large amounts of sediment and colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) from the watershed into the lake. There was initially a ~50-fold spike in the total phosphorus concentrations (and a 5 fold spike in soluble reactive phosphorus) in flood-impacted waters. This disappeared rapidly, in large part due to sediment settling and did not lead to an increase in chlorophyll concentrations at monitored sampling sites. Instead, lake phytoplankton appeared light limited by a surface lens of warm water enriched in CDOM that persisted for over a month after the flood event itself. Our observations highlight the need for continuing research on these complex in-lake processes in order to make accurate predictions about longer term impacts of these large episodic inputs in CDOM, sediment, and nutrient loading.

Late Holocene Environmental Reconstruction and Flood Records of Lake Bafa, Western Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yalamaz, Burak; Bulkan, Özlem; Namık Çaǧatay, M.; Acar, Dursun

2016-04-01

Lake Bafa is a significant inland lake located in the Büyük Menderes River Basin near the Aegean Sea in the horst and graben system of western Turkey. Lake Bafa was part of the ancient Gulf of Latmos that was gradually filled by the prograding sediments of Büyük Menderes River during the Holocene transgression, and resulted in the creation of the Lake in the southern part. The lake is presently located 15 km from the shoreline, 2 m above sea level. It has a maximum depth of 21 m and surface area of 60 km2. We used multi-proxy analyses of a 4.17 m-long core extending back to ca. 2300 years from the central depo centre of the lake. The objectives are to reconstruct the environmental evolution of the Lake Bafa as it changed from a marginal marine to a lacustrine environment, and to investigate the flood records during the past 2300 yrs. The core is composed of three units: an uppermost lacustrine unit, a unit representing marine to lacustrine conditions and a lowermost marine unit. The uppermost lacustrine unit is 1 m-thick, homogenous clayey silt mud layer with relatively high total organic carbon (TOC= 2.5 - 4.5 %), high total inorganic carbon (TIC = 1.8 -4.5 %) and low detrital input (Si, K, Zr, Ti). According to AMS radiocarbon dating, it was deposited over the last 600 yrs under brackish lacustrine conditions. The underlying unit is 2 m-thick, and consists of banded mud layers with relatively low TOC (1.2-4 %) and TIC (1.2-3.5) contents and high detrital input. Its fossil content, with scarce Cardium sp. and Ammonia sp., indicates that it was deposited under brackish water conditions and represents a transition from marine to lacustrine environments. The unit was deposited between ca. 600 and 1750 yrs BP, and includes frequent flood units ranging up to 10 cm-thick fine sand- to clay-bearing coarse silt. The lowermost unit is characterized by relatively high TOC (2-5.5 %), TIC (1.5-3.5 %) contents and high detrital input. With its abundant Cardium sp. and

Dam-breach analysis and flood-inundation mapping for Lakes Ellsworth and Lawtonka near Lawton, Oklahoma

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rendon, Samuel H.; Ashworth, Chad E.; Smith, S. Jerrod

2012-01-01

Dams provide beneficial functions such as flood control, recreation, and reliable water supplies, but they also entail risk: dam breaches and resultant floods can cause substantial property damage and loss of life. The State of Oklahoma requires each owner of a high-hazard dam, which the Federal Emergency Management Agency defines as dams for which failure or misoperation probably will cause loss of human life, to develop an emergency action plan specific to that dam. Components of an emergency action plan are to simulate a flood resulting from a possible dam breach and map the resulting downstream flood-inundation areas. The resulting flood-inundation maps can provide valuable information to city officials, emergency managers, and local residents for planning the emergency response if a dam breach occurs. Accurate topographic data are vital for developing flood-inundation maps. This report presents results of a cooperative study by the city of Lawton, Oklahoma, and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to model dam-breach scenarios at Lakes Ellsworth and Lawtonka near Lawton and to map the potential flood-inundation areas of such dam breaches. To assist the city of Lawton with completion of the emergency action plans for Lakes Ellsworth and Lawtonka Dams, the USGS collected light detection and ranging (lidar) data that were used to develop a high-resolution digital elevation model and a 1-foot contour elevation map for the flood plains downstream from Lakes Ellsworth and Lawtonka. This digital elevation model and field measurements, streamflow-gaging station data (USGS streamflow-gaging station 07311000, East Cache Creek near Walters, Okla.), and hydraulic values were used as inputs for the dynamic (unsteady-flow) model, Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System (HEC-RAS). The modeled flood elevations were exported to a geographic information system to produce flood-inundation maps. Water-surface profiles were developed for a 75-percent probable maximum

The Importance of Lake Overflow Floods for Early Martian Landscape Evolution: Insights From Licus Vallis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goudge, T. A.; Fassett, C. I.

2017-01-01

Open-basin lake outlet valleys are incised when water breaches the basin-confining topography and overflows. Outlet valleys record this flooding event and provide insight into how the lake and surrounding terrain evolved over time. Here we present a study of the paleolake outlet Licus Vallis, a >350 km long, >2 km wide, >100 m deep valley that heads at the outlet breach of an approx.30 km diameter impact crater. Multiple geomorphic features of this valley system suggest it records a more complex evolution than formation from a single lake overflow flood. This provides unique insight into the paleohydrology of lakes on early Mars, as we can make inferences beyond the most recent phase of activity..

Devils Lake Flood Control Project. Section 205. Detailed Project Report.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-10-01

Sd.U.JS IWE 00 RlEP0OAT II PERIOD COVERED SE~CTION 205 DETAILED PROJECT REPORT FLOOD CONTROL Final. Oct 1979-July 1983 PROJECT AT DEVILS LAKE. NORTH...a few feet. The light loading proposed for the site and thick cover of impervious material make more detailed evaluation of the strength and water...can cause low-oapaoity channels to overflow, resulting in flood damages to crops . Because the subbasin has no outlet near the existing water surface

Assessing the variability of glacier lake bathymetries and potential peak discharge based on large-scale measurements in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cochachin, Alejo; Huggel, Christian; Salazar, Cesar; Haeberli, Wilfried; Frey, Holger

2015-04-01

Over timescales of hundreds to thousands of years ice masses in mountains produced erosion in bedrock and subglacial sediment, including the formation of overdeepenings and large moraine dams that now serve as basins for glacial lakes. Satellite based studies found a total of 8355 glacial lakes in Peru, whereof 830 lakes were observed in the Cordillera Blanca. Some of them have caused major disasters due to glacial lake outburst floods in the past decades. On the other hand, in view of shrinking glaciers, changing water resources, and formation of new lakes, glacial lakes could have a function as water reservoirs in the future. Here we present unprecedented bathymetric studies of 124 glacial lakes in the Cordillera Blanca, Huallanca, Huayhuash and Raura in the regions of Ancash, Huanuco and Lima. Measurements were carried out using a boat equipped with GPS, a total station and an echo sounder to measure the depth of the lakes. Autocad Civil 3D Land and ArcGIS were used to process the data and generate digital topographies of the lake bathymetries, and analyze parameters such as lake area, length and width, and depth and volume. Based on that, we calculated empirical equations for mean depth as related to (1) area, (2) maximum length, and (3) maximum width. We then applied these three equations to all 830 glacial lakes of the Cordillera Blanca to estimate their volumes. Eventually we used three relations from the literature to assess the peak discharge of potential lake outburst floods, based on lake volumes, resulting in 3 x 3 peak discharge estimates. In terms of lake topography and geomorphology results indicate that the maximum depth is located in the center part for bedrock lakes, and in the back part for lakes in moraine material. Best correlations are found for mean depth and maximum width, however, all three empirical relations show a large spread, reflecting the wide range of natural lake bathymetries. Volumes of the 124 lakes with bathymetries amount to 0

Estimating the volume of Alpine glacial lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, S. J.; Quincey, D. J.

2015-09-01

Supraglacial, moraine-dammed and ice-dammed lakes represent a potential glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) threat to downstream communities in many mountain regions. This has motivated the development of empirical relationships to predict lake volume given a measurement of lake surface area obtained from satellite imagery. Such relationships are based on the notion that lake depth, area and volume scale predictably. We critically evaluate the performance of these existing empirical relationships by examining a global database of measured glacial lake depths, areas and volumes. Results show that lake area and depth are not always well correlated (r2 = 0.38), and that although lake volume and area are well correlated (r2 = 0.91), there are distinct outliers in the dataset. These outliers represent situations where it may not be appropriate to apply existing empirical relationships to predict lake volume, and include growing supraglacial lakes, glaciers that recede into basins with complex overdeepened morphologies or that have been deepened by intense erosion, and lakes formed where glaciers advance across and block a main trunk valley. We use the compiled dataset to develop a conceptual model of how the volumes of supraglacial ponds and lakes, moraine-dammed lakes and ice-dammed lakes should be expected to evolve with increasing area. Although a large amount of bathymetric data exist for moraine-dammed and ice-dammed lakes, we suggest that further measurements of growing supraglacial ponds and lakes are needed to better understand their development.

Analysis of High Resolution Satellite imagery to acsees Glacier Mass Balance and Lake Hazards in Sikkim Himalayas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhushan, S.; Shean, D. E.; Haritashya, U. K.; Arendt, A. A.; Syed, T. H.; Setiawan, L.

2017-12-01

Glacial lake outburst floods can impact downstream communities due to the sudden outflux of huge quantities of stored water. In this study, we develop a hazard assessment of the moraine dammed glacial lakes in Sikkim Himalayas by analyzing the morphometry of proglacial features, and the surface velocity and mass balance of glaciers. We generated high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) using the open-source NASA Ames Stereo Pipeline (ASP) and use other open-source tools to calculate surface velocity and patterns of glacier downwasting over time. Geodetic glacier mass balance is obtained for three periods using high-resolution WorldView/GeoEye stereo DEMs (8 m posting, 2014-2016), Cartosat-1 stereo DEMs (10 m, 2006-2008) and SRTM (30 m, 2000). Initial results reveal a region-wide mass balance of -0.31±0.13 m w.eq.a-1 for the 2007-2015 period, with some debris covered glaciers showing a very low mass loss rate. Additionally, 12 annual glacier velocity fields spanning from 1991 to 2017.derived from Landsat imagery are used to explore the relationship between glacier dynamics and changes in proglacial lakes. Multi-temporal glacial lake mapping is conducted using Landsat and Cartosat imagery. Avalanche and rockfall modeling are combined with morphometric analysis of the proglacial lake area to assess the likelihood of glacial lake dam failure. The above parameters are integrated into a decision tree approach enabling categorization of moraine-dammed lakes according to their potential for outburst events.

Extreme events in the sedimentary record of maar Lake Pavin: Implications for natural hazards assessment in the French Massif Central

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chassiot, Léo; Chapron, Emmanuel; Di Giovanni, Christian; Albéric, Patrick; Lajeunesse, Patrick; Lehours, Anne-Catherine; Meybeck, Michel

2016-06-01

A set of sedimentary cores, high resolution swath bathymetry and subbottom profiler data provides new insights on sedimentary processes in meromictic maar Lake Pavin, France. Three sedimentary environments (i.e., littoral, plateau and basin) have been identified in the lake from sediment composition using bulk organic geochemistry and the analysis of hydroacoustic images. Various forms of rapidly deposited layers (RDLs) have been identified and radiocarbon dated. An up to date stratigraphy of sedimentary events matching coeval RDLs across the lake is presented and illustrates a wide range of natural hazards linked to Lake Pavin during the last 2000 years. In AD 600, a sudden lake outburst triggered a slump deposit along with a 9 m lake-level drop that drove shifts in sedimentary organic matter composition. Outside the lake, outburst flood deposits have been described downstream and provide sedimentary evidence for this event. The lake-level drop also favored the generation of gravity reworking processes, as shown by (1) a regional earthquake-triggered large slope failure on the plateau connected to a mass-wasting deposit in the basin dated to AD 1300, and (2) a succession of turbidites in AD 1825 and AD 1860 contemporaneous to two historic earthquakes, suggesting that this lake is sensitive to earthquakes with a minimum epicentral intensity of V. Finally, past observations of lake water color changes in AD 1783 and AD 1936, similar to reports in other meromictic lakes, match iron-rich deposits identified in maar lake sediments and suggest that Lake Pavin could have undergone limnic eruptions.

Localized Glacier Deformation Associated with Filling and Draining of a Glacier-Dammed Lake and Implications for Outburst Flood Hydraulics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cunico, M. L.; Walder, J. S.; Fountain, A. G.; Trabant, D. C.

2001-12-01

During the summer of 2000, we measured displacements of 22 survey targets on the surface of Kennicott Glacier, Alaska, in the vicinity of Hidden Creek Lake, an ice-dammed lake in a tributary valley that fills and drains annually. Targets were distributed over a domain about equal in width to the lake, from near the glacier/lake margin to a distance of about 1 km from the margin. Targets were surveyed over a 24-day period as the lake filled and then drained. Lake stage was independently monitored. Vertical movement of targets generally fell off with distance d from the lake. As the lake filled, targets with d < 300 to 400 m rose at nearly the same rate as the lake--typically about 0.5 m/d--with a few targets rising slightly faster than the lake. The rate of vertical movement fell off rapidly with distance from the lake: for d = ca. 600 m--roughly twice the local ice thickness--targets moved upward only about 10% as fast as lake stage. Vertical movement of targets with d > ca. 1 km seemed to be uncorrelated with lake stage. The general pattern is consistent with the idea that a wedge of water extended beneath the glacier to a distance of perhaps 300 to 400 m from the visible margin of the lake and exerts buoyant stresses on the ice that were transmitted into the main body of the glacier and caused flexure. This scenario bears some resemblance to tidal deflections of ice shelves or tidewater glaciers. For a given value of lake stage, target elevations were invariably higher as the lake drained than as the lake filled. Moreover, survey targets at a distance of about 400 m or more from the lake continued to rise for some time even after the lake began to drain. The lag time between the beginning of lake drainage and the beginning of target downdrop increased with distance from the lake, with the lag being about 14 hours at a distance of 400 m from the lake. (The lake drained completely in approximately 75 hours.) The likeliest explanations for the departure from

Groundwater discharge and phosphorus dynamics in a flood-pulse system: Tonle Sap Lake, Cambodia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burnett, William C.; Wattayakorn, Gullaya; Supcharoen, Ratsirin; Sioudom, Khamfeuane; Kum, Veasna; Chanyotha, Supitcha; Kritsananuwat, Rawiwan

2017-06-01

Tonle Sap Lake (Cambodia), a classic example of a "flood pulse" system, is the largest freshwater lake in SE Asia, and is reported to have one of the highest freshwater fish productions anywhere. During the dry season (November-April) the lake drains through a tributary to the Mekong River. The flow in the connecting tributary completely reverses during the wet monsoon (May-October), adding huge volumes of water back to the lake, increasing its area about six fold. The lake is likely phosphorus limited and we hypothesized that groundwater discharge, including recirculated lake water, may represent an important source of P and other nutrients. To address this question, we surveyed hundreds of kilometers of the lake for natural 222Rn (radon), temperature, conductivity, GPS coordinates and water depth. All major inorganic nutrients and phosphorus species were evaluated by systematic sampling throughout the lake. Results showed that there were radon hotspots, all at the boundaries between the permanent lake and the floodplain, indicating likely groundwater inputs. A radon mass balance model indicates that the groundwater flow to Tonle Sap Lake is approximately 10 km3/yr, about 25% as large as the floodwaters entering from the Mekong River during the wet monsoon. Our results suggest that the groundwater-derived dissolved inorganic phosphorus (DIP) contribution to Tonle Sap is more than 30% of the average inflows from all natural sources. Since the productivity of the lake appears to be phosphorus limited, this finding suggests that the role of groundwater is significant for Tonle Sap Lake and perhaps for other flood pulse systems worldwide.

Estimating the volume of Alpine glacial lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, S. J.; Quincey, D. J.

2015-12-01

Supraglacial, moraine-dammed and ice-dammed lakes represent a potential glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) threat to downstream communities in many mountain regions. This has motivated the development of empirical relationships to predict lake volume given a measurement of lake surface area obtained from satellite imagery. Such relationships are based on the notion that lake depth, area and volume scale predictably. We critically evaluate the performance of these existing empirical relationships by examining a global database of glacial lake depths, areas and volumes. Results show that lake area and depth are not always well correlated (r2 = 0.38) and that although lake volume and area are well correlated (r2 = 0.91), and indeed are auto-correlated, there are distinct outliers in the data set. These outliers represent situations where it may not be appropriate to apply existing empirical relationships to predict lake volume and include growing supraglacial lakes, glaciers that recede into basins with complex overdeepened morphologies or that have been deepened by intense erosion and lakes formed where glaciers advance across and block a main trunk valley. We use the compiled data set to develop a conceptual model of how the volumes of supraglacial ponds and lakes, moraine-dammed lakes and ice-dammed lakes should be expected to evolve with increasing area. Although a large amount of bathymetric data exist for moraine-dammed and ice-dammed lakes, we suggest that further measurements of growing supraglacial ponds and lakes are needed to better understand their development.

Map showing flood and surface water information in the Sugar House quadrangle, Salt Lake County, Utah

USGS Publications Warehouse

Van Horn, Richard; Fields, F.K.

1974-01-01

In the past man has built on land that might be covered by floodwaters, with little consideration of the consequences. The result has been disastrous to those in the path of floodwaters and has cost the loss of thousands of lives and untold billions of dollars in property damage in the United States. Salt Lake County, of which the Sugar House quadrangle is a part, has had many floods in the past and can be expected to have more in the future. Construction has taken place in filled or dried-up marshes and lakes, in spring areas, and even in stream channels. Lack of prior knowledge of these and other forms of surface water (water at the surface of the ground) can increase construction and maintenance costs significantly.The map shows the area that probably will be covered by floods at least once in every 100 years on the long-term average (unit IRF, intermediate regional flood), the area that probably will be covered by floods from the worst possible combination of very wet weather and high streamflow reasonably expected of the area (unit SPF, standard project flood), the mapped extent of streamflow by channel shifting or flooding in the past 5,000 years (unit fa), and the probable maximum extent of damaging flash floods and mudflows from small valleys in the Wasatch Range. The map also shows the location of water at the surface of the ground: lakes, streams, springs, weep holes, canals, and reservoirs. Lakes and marshes that existed within the past 100 years, but now are drained, filled, or dried up, are also shown.The following examples show that the presence of water can be desirable or undesirable, depending on how the water occurs. Floods, the most spectacular form of surface water, may result in great property damage and loss of life. Lakes normally are beneficial, in that they may support plant growth and provide habitats for fish and other wildlife, provide water for livestock, and can be used for recreation. Springs may or may not be desirable: they may

Assessing trends in organochlorine concentrations in Lake Winnipeg fish following the 1997 red river flood

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stewart, A.R.; Stern, G.A.; Lockhart, W.L.; Kidd, K.A.; Salki, A.G.; Stainton, M.P.; Koczanski, K.; Rosenberg, G.B.; Savoie, D.A.; Billeck, B.N.; Wilkinson, Philip M.; Muir, D.C.G.

2003-01-01

As we move toward the virtual elimination of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the environment our understanding of how short-term variability affects long-term trends of POPs in natural populations will become increasingly more important. In this study we report short-term trends in organochlorine (OC) levels in fish from Lake Winnipeg in the months and years following the 1997 100-year flood of the Red River ecosystem. Our goal was to understand the effects of an episodic event on OC levels in benthic and pelagic invertebrates and in fish. Despite elevated loading of OCs into the south basin of Lake Winnipeg during the flood there were no differences in OC levels of surface sediments or emergent mayflies. After adjusting for differences in lipid content and length among sample times, we did find significant increases in total DDT (??DDT) and total polychlorinated biphenyl (??PCB) post-flood (March 1999) in top predators including walleye and burbot. Significant increases were also observed in OC concentrations of zooplankton and yellow perch (> 2 fold in ??PCB, ??DDT, total chlordane (??CHL), total chlorobenzenes (??CBZ)) and walleye (1.4 fold ??PCB) over a 2-month period in the summer following the flood. Analysis of specific congener patterns over time suggest that the major changes in fish OC levels pre- and post-flood did not appear to be linked to transport of new compounds into the Lake during the flood, but to species shifts within the plankton community. Our results indicate that short-term variation (???2 months) in OC distributions within biota may be equal to or greater than those resulting from episodic events such as spring floods.

Building a flood hazard map due to magma effusion into the caldera lake of the Baekdusan Volcano

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, K.; Kim, S.; Yun, S.; Yu, S.; Kim, I.

2013-12-01

Many volcanic craters and calderas are filled with large amounts of water that can pose significant flood hazards to downstream communities due to their high elevation and the potential for catastrophic releases of water. Recent reports pointed out the Baekdusan volcano that is located between the border of China and North Korea as a potential active volcano. Since Millennium Eruption around 1000 AD, smaller eruptions have occurred at roughly 100-year intervals, with the last one in 1903. The volcano is showing signs of waking from a century-long slumber recently and the volcanic ash may spread up to the northeastern of Japan. The development of various forecasting techniques to prevent and minimize economic and social damage is in urgent need. Floods from lake-filled calderas may be particularly large and high. Volcanic flood may cause significant hydrologic hazards for this reason. This study focuses on constructing a flood hazard map triggered by the uplift of lake bottom due to magma effusion in the Baekdusan volcano. A physically-based uplift model was developed to compute the amount of water and time to peak flow. The ordinary differential equation was numerically solved using the finite difference method and Newton-Raphson iteration method was used to solve nonlinear equation. The magma effusion rate into the caldera lake is followed by the past record from other volcanic activities. As a result, the hydrograph serves as an upper boundary condition when hydrodynamic model (Flo-2D) runs to simulate channel routing downstream. The final goal of the study stresses the potential flood hazard represented by the huge volume of water in the caldera lake, the unique geography, and the limited control capability. he study will contribute to build a geohazard map for the decision-makers and practitioners. Keywords: Effusion rate, Volcanic flood, Caldera lake, Uplift, Flood hazard map Acknowledgement This research was supported by a grant [NEMA-BAEKDUSAN-2012-1-2] from

Hydrologic effects of hypothetical earthquake-caused floods below Jackson Lake, northwestern Wyoming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Glass, W.R.; Keefer, T.N.; Rankl, J.G.

1976-01-01

Jackson Lake, located in Grand Teton National Park, Wyoming, is in an area of seismic instability. There is a possibility of flooding in the Snake River downstream from Jackson Lake Dam in the event of a severe earthquake. Hypothetical floods were routed 38 miles (61 kilometers) downstream from the dam for three cases: (1) Instantaneous destruction of the dam outlet structure, (2) instantaneous destruction of the entire dam, and (3) for waves overtopping the dam without failure of the dam. In each case, a full reservoir was assumed. Hydrographs for outflow from the reservoir for the two cases of dam failure were developed utilizing an accelerated discharge due to the travel of a negative wave through the reservoir, and Muskingum storage routing. For the case of waves overtopping the dam, a 10-foot (3-meter) wave was assumed to be propagated from the upstream end of the reservori. A multiple-linearization technique was used to route the flow through the reach. The model was calibrated from U.S. Geological Survey streamflow records. Most extensive flooding and largest water velocities would occur if the entire dam were destroyed; floods for the other two cases were smaller. An inundation map was prepared from channel conveyance curves and profiles of the water surface. (Woodard-USGS)

Flood of June 1972: Seneca Lake Inlet at Watkins Glen, New York

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wagner, L.A.; Hamecher, P.H.

1972-01-01

In June 1972, tropical storm Agnes caused sever flooding in Pennsylvania and southern New York. The flood, on many major streams were the highest known since the river valleys were settled. Maximum discharges were as much as twice the discharge of a 50-year flood. In southern New York, large areas in Corning, Elmire, Wellsville, Salamanca, and in many smaller communities were inundated to depths of several feet. Levels of all of the Finger Lakes were higher than any previously recorded, and extensive flooding of lakeside properties resulted. The extent of flooding shown on the map was delineated by the U.S. Geological Survey from earlier photography and limited field survey. The investigation was conducted in cooperation with the State of New York and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

Signs of η Carinae Outburst in Artifacts of Ancient Bolivia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teames, Sallie

Recent HST and X-ray photos of η Carinae reveal the bipolar gaseous lobes--the Homunculus Nebula--created by the star's "Great Eruption of 1843." From debris gases on the outskirts beyond the two gaseous lobes, astrophysicists surmise an earlier outburst. The 1999 Chandra X-ray photo of the horseshoe-shaped outer nebula surrounding the bipolar lobes indicates an earlier outburst occurring over a thousand years ago. Because η Carinae is so far south, it is entirely possible that the outburst would not have been seen by the Chinese and other observers in the northern hemisphere. Researchers are looking for possible recordings by early southern hemisphere observers. Pre-Incan artifacts excavated in Bolivia may provide an answer. In the script and artwork carvings on a monolith stone statue, an artifact of the Tiahuanacan culture, are signs possibly depicting the earlier outburst of η Carinae--the recordings of a star that suddenly brightened in their night sky. Two small stones from the same era and also found on the south shore of Lake Titicaca may also show depictions related to this brightening.

Himalayan Lake- and River-Impacting Landslides and Ice Avalanches: Some So Deadly, Some No Problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kargel, J. S.; Karki, A.; Haritashya, U. K.; Shugar, D. H.; Harrison, S.

2017-12-01

the same area. Factors for landslide triggering of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) include some of the same factors, but the mass/energy input rate into the lake, the lake's shape and length, and moraine dam properties are also important in GLOF triggering. Himalayan examples will illustrate some hazard factors.

Peak-flow frequency and extreme flood potential for streams in the vicinity of the Highland Lakes, central Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Asquith, William H.; Slade, R.M.; Lanning-Rush, Jennifer

1996-01-01

The Highland Lakes on the Colorado River are in an area periodically threatened by large storms and floods. Many storms exceeding 10 inches (in.) in depth have been documented in the area, including some with depths approaching 40 in. These storms typically produce large peak discharges that often threaten lives and property. The storms sometimes occur with little warning. Steep stream slopes and thin soils characteristic of the area often cause large peak discharges and rapid movement of floods through watersheds. A procedure to predict the discharge associated with large floods is needed for the area so that appropriate peak discharges can be used in the design of flood plains, bridges, and other structures.The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Lower Colorado River Authority (LCRA), studied flood peaks for streams in the vicinity of the Highland Lakes of central Texas. The Highland Lakes are a series of reservoirs constructed on the Colorado River. The chain of lakes (and year each was completed) comprises Lake Buchanan (1937), Inks Lake (1938), Lake Lyndon B. Johnson (1950), Lake Marble Falls (1951), Lake Travis (1942), and lake Austin (1890). The study area (fig. 1), which includes all or parts of 21 counties in the vicinity of the Highland Lakes, was selected because most streams in the area have flood characteristics similar to streams entering the Highland Lakes. The entire study area is in a region subject to large storms.The purpose of this report is to present (1) peak-flow frequency data for stations and equations to estimate peak-flow frequency for large streams with natural drainage basins in the vicinity of the Highland Lakes, and (2) a technique to estimate the extreme flood peak discharges for the large streams in the vicinity of the Highland Lakes. Peak-flow frequency in this report refers to the peak discharges for recurrence intervals of 2,5, 10,25,50, and 100 years. A large stream is defined as having a contributing drainage

Water Quality of a Drained Wetland, Caledonia Marsh on Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon, after Flooding in 2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lindenberg, Mary K.; Wood, Tamara M.

2009-01-01

The unexpected inundation of Caledonia Marsh, a previously drained wetland adjacent to Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon, provided an opportunity to observe nutrient release from sediments into the water column of the flooded area and the resulting algal growth. Three sites, with differing proximity to the levee breach that reconnected the area to Upper Klamath Lake, were selected for water sample collection in the marsh. Chlorophyll a concentrations (an indicator of algal biomass) were lowest and dissolved nutrient concentrations were highest at the site farthest from the breach. At the site where chlorophyll a concentrations were lowest, dissolved organic carbon concentrations were highest, and the presence of tannic compounds was indicated by the dark brown color of the water. Both DOC and specific conductance was higher at the site farthest from the breach, which indicated less mixing with Upper Klamath Lake water at that site. Dissolved oxygen concentrations and pH were lowest at the beginning of the sampling period at the site farthest from the levee breach, coincident with the lowest algal growth. Phosphorus concentrations measured in the flooded Caledonia Marsh were greater than median concentrations in Upper Klamath Lake, indicating that phosphorus likely was released from the previously drained wetland soils of the marsh when they were flooded. However, a proportional increase in algal biomass was not measured either in the marsh or in the adjacent bay of the lake. Nitrogen to phosphorus ratios indicated that phosphorus was not limiting to algal growth at the marsh sites, and possibly was not limiting in the adjacent bay either. In terms of nutrient dynamics, wetlands normally function as nutrient sinks. In contrast, the drained wetlands around Upper Klamath Lake cannot be expected to provide that function in the short term after being flooded and may, in fact, be a source of nutrients to the lake instead. The consequences for algal growth in the lake, however

Use of a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model to evaluate extreme flooding and transport of dissolved solids through Devils Lake and Stump Lake, North Dakota, 2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nustad, Rochelle A.; Wood, Tamara M.; Bales, Jerad D.

2011-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the North Dakota Department of Transportation, North Dakota State Water Commission, and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, developed a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model of Devils Lake and Stump Lake, North Dakota to be used as a hydrologic tool for evaluating the effects of different inflow scenarios on water levels, circulation, and the transport of dissolved solids through the lake. The numerical model, UnTRIM, and data primarily collected during 2006 were used to develop and calibrate the Devils Lake model. Performance of the Devils Lake model was tested using 2009 data. The Devils Lake model was applied to evaluate the effects of an extreme flooding event on water levels and hydrological modifications within the lake on the transport of dissolved solids through Devils Lake and Stump Lake. For the 2006 calibration, simulated water levels in Devils Lake compared well with measured water levels. The maximum simulated water level at site 1 was within 0.13 feet of the maximum measured water level in the calibration, which gives reasonable confidence that the Devils Lake model is able to accurately simulate the maximum water level at site 1 for the extreme flooding scenario. The timing and direction of winddriven fluctuations in water levels on a short time scale (a few hours to a day) were reproduced well by the Devils Lake model. For this application, the Devils Lake model was not optimized for simulation of the current speed through bridge openings. In future applications, simulation of current speed through bridge openings could be improved by more accurate definition of the bathymetry and geometry of select areas in the model grid. As a test of the performance of the Devils Lake model, a simulation of 2009 conditions from April 1 through September 30, 2009 was performed. Overall, errors in inflow estimates affected the results for the 2009 simulation; however, for the rising phase of the lakes, the Devils Lake model

Sediment sequences and palynology of outer South Bay, Manitoulin Island, Ontario: Connections to Lake Huron paleohydrologic phases and upstream Lake Agassiz events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewis, C. F. M.; Anderson, T. W.

2017-10-01

South Bay on the southern coast of Manitoulin Island is a fjord-like embayment connected to Lake Huron by a natural narrow gap in the bay's outer sill 6.5-14 m above the lake. A seismic profile, pollen, plant macrofossil, grain size analyses, and other sediment properties of two piston cores from a shallow outer basin of the bay document a 9 m-thick sediment section comprising rhythmically laminated clay under silty clay containing zones with small molluscan shells and marsh detritus. A sandy pebbly layer under soft silty clay mud overlies these sediments. This stratigraphy represents inundation by deep glacial Lake Algonquin followed by the shallowing Post Algonquin series of lakes, and exposure in the early Holocene by 5 Lake Stanley lowstands in the Lake Huron basin separated by 4 Lake Mattawa highstands. Overflow from South Bay in the first lowstand is thought to have eroded the outer sill gap. Marsh environments are inferred to have formed in the bay during subsequent lowstands. The Lake Mattawa highstands are attributed to outburst floods mainly from glacial Lake Agassiz. Palynological evidence of increased spruce occurrence, an apparent regional climate reversal, during the dry pine period is attributed to cold northwest winds from the Lake Superior basin and a lake effect from the Mattawa highstands in the Lake Huron basin. Lake waters transgressed South Bay following the pine period to form the Nipissing shore on Manitoulin Island. Transfer of Lake Huron basin drainage to southern outlets and continued glacioisostatic uplift of the region led to the present configuration of South Bay and Lake Huron.

Improving regional climate and hydrological forecasting following the record setting flooding across the Lake Ontario - St. Lawrence River system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gronewold, A.; Seglenieks, F.; Bruxer, J.; Fortin, V.; Noel, J.

2017-12-01

In the spring of 2017, water levels across Lake Ontario and the upper St. Lawrence River exceeded record high levels, leading to widespread flooding, damage to property, and controversy over regional dam operating protocols. Only a few years earlier, water levels on Lakes Superior, Michigan, and Huron (upstream of Lake Ontario) had dropped to record low levels leading to speculation that either anthropogenic controls or climate change were leading to chronic water loss from the Great Lakes. The contrast between low water level conditions across Earth's largest lake system from the late 1990s through 2013, and the rapid rise prior to the flooding in early 2017, underscores the challenges of quantifying and forecasting hydrologic impacts of rising regional air and water temperatures (and associated changes in lake evaporation) and persistent increases in long-term precipitation. Here, we assess the hydrologic conditions leading to the recent record flooding across the Lake Ontario - St. Lawrence River system, with a particular emphasis on understanding the extent to which those conditions were consistent with observed and anticipated changes in historical and future climate, and the extent to which those conditions could have been anticipated through improvements in seasonal climate outlooks and hydrological forecasts.

Long-term psychological outcomes of flood survivors of hard-hit areas of the 1998 Dongting Lake flood in China: Prevalence and risk factors

PubMed Central

Dai, Wenjie; Kaminga, Atipatsa C.; Tan, Hongzhuan; Wang, Jieru; Lai, Zhiwei; Wu, Xin; Liu, Aizhong

2017-01-01

Background Although numerous studies have indicated that exposure to natural disasters may increase survivors’ risk of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and anxiety, studies focusing on the long-term psychological outcomes of flood survivors are limited. Thus, this study aimed to estimate the prevalence of PTSD and anxiety among flood survivors 17 years after the 1998 Dongting Lake flood and to identify the risk factors for PTSD and anxiety. Methods This cross-sectional study was conducted in December 2015, 17 years after the 1998 Dongting Lake flood. Survivors in hard-hit areas of the flood disaster were enrolled in this study using a stratified, systematic random sampling method. Well qualified investigators conducted face-to-face interviews with participants using the PTSD Checklist-Civilian version, the Zung Self-Rating Anxiety Scale, the Chinese version of the Social Support Rating Scale and the Revised Eysenck Personality Questionnaire-Short Scale for Chinese to assess PTSD, anxiety, social support and personality traits, respectively. Logistic regression analyses were used to identify factors associated with PTSD and anxiety. Results A total of 325 participants were recruited in this study, and the prevalence of PTSD and anxiety was 9.5% and 9.2%, respectively. Multivariable logistic regression analyses indicated that female sex, experiencing at least three flood-related stressors, having a low level of social support, and having the trait of emotional instability were risk factors for long-term adverse psychological outcomes among flood survivors after the disaster. Conclusions PTSD and anxiety were common long-term adverse psychological outcomes among flood survivors. Early and effective psychological interventions for flood survivors are needed to prevent the development of PTSD and anxiety in the long run after a flood, especially for individuals who are female, experience at least three flood-related stressors, have a low level of social support

Glacier generated floods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walder, J.S.; Fountain, A.G.; ,

1997-01-01

Destructive floods result from drainage of glacier-dammed lakes and sudden release of water stored within glaciers. There is a good basis - both empirical and theoretical - for predicting the magnitude of floods from ice-dammed lakes, although some aspects of flood initiation need to be better understood. In contrast, an understanding of floods resulting from release of internally stored water remains elusive, owing to lack of knowledge of how and where water is stored and to inadequate understanding of the complex physics of the temporally and spatially variable subglacial drainage system.Destructive floods result from drainage of glacier-dammed lakes and sudden release of water stored within glaciers. There is a good basis - both empirical and theoretical - for predicting the magnitude of floods from ice-dammed lakes, although some aspects of flood initiation need to be better understood. In contrast, an understanding of floods resulting from release of internally stored water remains elusive, owing to lack of knowledge of how and where water is stored and to inadequate understanding of the complex physics of the temporally and spatially variable subglacial drainage system.

Using lake sediments from Buarvatnet to reconstruct multiple episodic events found at Folgefonn Peninsula, Norway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roethe, T.; Bakke, J.; Støren, E.

2016-12-01

Here we present work in progress from Buarvatnet at the Folgefonn Peninsula, located on the west coast of Norway. Earlier work from Buarvatnet indicated several distinct spikes in the Silica count rates, detected by the ITRAX surface XRF-scanner. However, the process behind these distinct spikes was not understood. The arrival of high-resolution and innovative instruments at EARTHLAB, in particular the computed tomography (CT) scanner and grain Morphometer, have the potential to get a process-based understanding of these distinct layers and unravel the frequency and timing of such events. Multiple sediment cores were retrieved using a modified piston corer and a Uwitech corer from Buarvatnet. The sediments have been analysed using a multi-proxy approach and the analyses included magnetic properties, loss-on-ignition, dry bulk density, grain size/shape, geochemical analysis (XRF scanning) and CT-scanning. Accurate age-control will be achieved through 210Pb dating of the top-most sediments and 14C dating of terrestrial macrofossils. The lithostratigraphy of the 3.6 m long master sediment core from Buarvatnet is divided into three distinct units. The lower most unit ( 87 cm) is massive with fine-grained greyish sediments, most likely representing the deglaciation of the area. A 224 cm long unit is found above, characterised as dark brown gyttja with multiple thin layers (sub-mm to cm thick) of fine grained sediments. Also in this unit is two distinct sub-units showing a finer upwards sequence. At top, a gradual transition from dark brown gyttja to grey fine-grained sediments is found in the upper-most 19 cm of the sediment core. In total 16 distinct layers is found in the gyttja sequence, including the two sub-units, based on the lithostratigraphy and the prelimnary results from the magnetic, physical and geochemical properties. A preliminary hypothesis is that these distinct layers are due to outburst floods from a glacier-dammed lake upstream from Buarvatnet. In

Cosmogenic 10Be Dating of Northern Quebec-Labrador Glacial Lake Shorelines and Drainage Deposits: Implications for the Final Meltwater Discharges of the Last Deglaciation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roy, M.; Dube-Loubert, H.; Schaefer, J. M.; Hébert, S.

2017-12-01

The decay of the Laurentide ice sheet played an important role in the climate variability of the last deglaciation, notably through large discharges of meltwater from glacial lakes that disturbed the Atlantic meridional overturning oceanic circulation (AMOC). These former climate-forcing events are now under focus due to growing evidence showing that the present-day increase in freshwater releases from Greenland and other Arctic glaciers may potentially lead to a slowdown of the AMOC and cause important climate feedbacks. In northern Quebec and Labrador, the end of the deglaciation led to the formation of at least 10 important glacial lakes that drained into the nearby Labrador Sea where repeated meltwater discharges could have destabilized the ocean surface conditions in this key sector of the North Atlantic Ocean. Although the drainage of these ice-dammed lakes may form a good analogue for modern processes, the lack of direct constraints on the physiographic configuration and temporal evolution of these lakes limits our understanding of the timing and climate impact of these final meltwater pulses. Here we applied cosmogenic 10Be dating to raised boulder shorelines belonging to Lake Naskaupi, one of the largest glacial lakes in northern Quebec and Labrador. We reconstructed the lake extent and meltwater volume, as well as its lake-level history by systematic mapping of geomorphic features. We sampled a total of 16 boulders at 4 sites along the valley. In addition, we dated five boulders belonging to a large-scale outburst flood deposit recording the abrupt drainage of the lake. The distribution of the 21 ages shows a remarkable consistency, yielding a mean age of 7.8 ± 0.4 ka (1 outlier excluded). The ages from the shorelines are indistinguishable from those of the outburst flood deposit, suggesting that Lake Naskaupi existed for a relatively short time span. These new chronological data constrain the timing of the lake development and attendant drainage

Assessment of the spatial extent and height of flooding in Lake Champlain during May 2011, using satellite remote sensing and ground-based information

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bjerklie, David M.; Trombley, Thomas J.; Olson, Scott A.

2014-01-01

Landsat 5 and moderate resolution imaging spectro-radiometer satellite imagery were used to map the area of inundation of Lake Champlain, which forms part of the border between New York and Vermont, during May 2011. During this month, the lake’s water levels were record high values not observed in the previous 150 years. Lake inundation area determined from the satellite imagery is correlated with lake stage measured at three U.S. Geological Survey lake level gages to provide estimates of lake area at different lake levels (stage/area rating) and also compared with the levels of the high-water marks (HWMs) located on the Vermont side of the lake. The rating developed from the imagery shows a somewhat different relation than a similar stage/area rating developed from a medium-resolution digital elevation model (DEM) of the region. According to the rating derived from the imagery, the lake surface area during the peak lake level increased by about 17 percent above the average or “normal” lake level. By using a comparable rating developed from the DEM, the increase above average is estimated to be about 12 percent. The northern part of the lake (north of Burlington) showed the largest amount of flooding. Based on intersecting the inundation maps with the medium-resolution DEM, lake levels were not uniform around the lake. This is also evident from the lake level gage measurements and HWMs. The gage data indicate differences up to 0.5 feet between the northern and southern end of the lake. Additionally, the gage data show day-to-day and intradaily variation of the same range (0.5 foot). The high-water mark observations show differences up to 2 feet around the lake, with the highest level generally along the south- and west-facing shorelines. The data suggest that during most of May 2011, water levels were slightly higher and less variable in the northern part of the lake. These phenomena may be caused by wind effects as well as proximity to major river inputs to

Impact of Flooding on Land Use/ Land Cover Transformation in Wular Lake and its Environs, Kashmir Valley, India Using Geoinformatics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmad, T.; Pandey, A. C.; Kumar, A.

2017-11-01

Wular lake, located at an elevation of 1520 m above sea level in Kashmir valley, India. In the present study, the immediate and long term impact of flood (2014) over the Wular lake environs was analyzed by using satellite images and employing supervised classification technique in GIS environment. The LULC classification was performed on the images of 25th August 2014 (pre flood) and 13th September 2015 (post flood) and was compared, which indicated marked decrease in terrestrial vegetation (23.7 %), agriculture (43.7 %) and water bodies (39.9 %). Overlaying analysis was performed with pre and post flood classified images with reference to the satellite image of 10th September 2014(during flood) which indicated total area inundated during flood was 88.77 km2. With the pre-flood situation, the aquatic vegetation of 34.06 km2, 13.89 km2 of agriculture land and terrestrial vegetation of 3.13 km2 was inundated. In the post flood situation, it was also came into focus that more than the half of the area under water bodies was converted into sand deposits (22.76 km2) due to anomalous increase in siltation. The overlay analysis on post flood classified image indicated that aquatic vegetation followed by agriculture and sand deposits lie within the flood inundated area. Further spatial analysis was performed within the flood inundated area (88.77 km2) with pre and post classified image to understand the situation before and after the flood and to calculate the changes. These land use-land cover transformations signifies the ill effect of flooding on the biodiversity of Wular Lake.

Glacier-induced Hazards in the Trans-Himalaya of Ladakh (NW-India)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, Susanne; Dame, Juliane; Nüsser, Marcus

2016-04-01

Glaciers are important water resources for irrigated crop cultivation in the semi-arid Trans-Himalaya of Ladakh (NW-India). Due to global warming, many glaciers of South Asia have retreated over the last century and further ice loss will threaten local livelihoods in the long run. In the short term, an increase of flood events caused by melting glaciers and permafrost is expected for the Himalayan region. Beside large catastrophic events, small outburst floods are 'more' regularly reported for various parts of the region. This also holds true for the Trans-Himalayan region of Ladakh, where small glaciers exist at high altitudes. Caused by glacier retreat, a number of proglacial lakes have been formed, most of them dammed by ice filled moraines. The potential risk of these lakes is shown by recent reports on glacial lake outburst flood in the villages Nidder in October 2010 and Gya in August 2014. The 2014 flood destroyed several agricultural terraces, a new concrete bridge and two houses. Own remote sensing analyses shows the increase of a moraine dammed proglacial lake in the upper catchment area, which grew from about 0.03 to 0.08 km2 between 1969 and 2014. Because of the relatively stable altitude of the lake level, one can assume that the flood was caused by a piping process, initiated by melted ice bodies in the moraine. Already in the 1990s a small GLOF was observed in the village, which destroyed some fields. As in 2014, the lake was not completely spilled and a short-term decrease of the lake area is detectable in remote sensing data. Thus, further GLOF-events can be expected for the future. Beside physical risk factors, population growth and new infrastructure development along the streams and valleys increases potential damages of floods. Therefore, investigations are required to estimate the risks of these small glacial lakes and the potential flood effected area for the case study of Gya as well as for the whole region of Ladakh. Remote sensing data are

Glacial lakes of the Central and Patagonian Andes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, Ryan; Glasser, Neil F.; Reynolds, John M.; Harrison, Stephan; Anacona, Pablo Iribarren; Schaefer, Marius; Shannon, Sarah

2018-03-01

The prevalence and increased frequency of high-magnitude Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) in the Chilean and Argentinean Andes suggests this region will be prone to similar events in the future as glaciers continue to retreat and thin under a warming climate. Despite this situation, monitoring of glacial lake development in this region has been limited, with past investigations only covering relatively small regions of Patagonia. This study presents new glacial lake inventories for 1986, 2000 and 2016, covering the Central Andes, Northern Patagonia and Southern Patagonia. Our aim was to characterise the physical attributes, spatial distribution and temporal development of glacial lakes in these three sub-regions using Landsat satellite imagery and image datasets available in Google Earth and Bing Maps. Glacial lake water volume was also estimated using an empirical area-volume scaling approach. Results reveal that glacial lakes across the study area have increased in number (43%) and areal extent (7%) between 1986 and 2016. Such changes equate to a glacial lake water volume increase of 65 km3 during the 30-year observation period. However, glacial lake growth and emergence was shown to vary sub-regionally according to localised topography, meteorology, climate change, rate of glacier change and the availability of low gradient ice areas. These and other factors are likely to influence the occurrence of GLOFs in the future. This analysis represents the first large-scale census of glacial lakes in Chile and Argentina and will allow for a better understanding of lake development in this region, as well as, providing a basis for future GLOF risk assessments.

Recent evolution of glacial lakes in the Eastern Himalayas: the case-study of Mt. Everest (Nepal)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salerno, Franco; D'Agata, Carlo; Diolaiuti, Guglielmina; Smiraglia, Claudio; Viviano, Gaetano; Tartari, Gianni

2010-05-01

In this contribution we analyze the glacier and lakes surface variations since the end of the 1950s until 2008 (around 50 years) through hystorical maps and remote sensing images. The Sagarmatha National Park (SNP), Eastern Hymalaian range (Nepal) covers an area of 1141km2, ranging from 2845 m to 8848 m (Mt Everest). Nearly all (28 out of a total of 29 in SNP) are ‘black glaciers', known also as D-type or debris-covered. Overall, SNP experienced a small net reduction in glacier cover of 19.6 km2 (4.9%) from 403.9 km2 at the end of the ‘50s to 384.6 km2 at the start of the ‘90s. As regards lakes surface variations, SNP experienced a very large net increasing in lake surface cover of 1.6 km2 (26%) from 6.0 km2 at the end of the ‘50s to 7.6 km2 in 2008. Moreover the number of lakes is enormously increased (by 36%, from 124 to 169). The new lakes have appeared at higher elevations (42 m higher than the lakes of 50's) probably following the glaciers retreat. As previously documented in bibliography, the Proglacial lakes (Moraine-dammed and in contact with the glacier front) is the typology of glacial lakes more effected by the climate change. These lakes are susceptible to Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) with the potential of releasing million cubic meters of water in a few hours causing catastrophic flooding up. We conclude this contribution pointing out the emerged scientific questions to address future research activities.

Model simulations of potential contribution of the proposed Huangpu Gate to flood control in the Lake Taihu basin of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Hanghui; Liu, Shuguang; Ye, Jianchun; Yeh, Pat J.-F.

2017-10-01

The Lake Taihu basin (36 895 km2), one of the most developed regions in China located in the hinterland of the Yangtze River Delta, has experienced increasing flood risk. The largest flood in history occurred in 1999 with a return period estimate of 200 years, considerably larger than the current capacity of the flood defense with a design return period of 50 years. Due to its flat saucer-like terrain, the capacity of the flood control system in this basin depends on flood control infrastructures and peripheral tidal conditions. The Huangpu River, an important river of the basin connecting Lake Taihu upstream and Yangtze River estuaries downstream, drains two-fifths of the entire basin. Since the water level in the Huangpu River is significantly affected by the high tide conditions in estuaries, constructing an estuary gate is considered an effective solution for flood mitigation. The main objective of this paper is to assess the potential contributions of the proposed Huangpu Gate to the flood control capacity of the basin. To achieve this goal, five different scenarios of flooding conditions and the associated gate operations are considered by using numerical model simulations. Results of quantitative analyses show that the Huangpu Gate is effective for evacuating floodwaters. It can help to reduce both peak values and duration of high water levels in Lake Taihu to benefit surrounding areas along the Taipu Canal and the Huangpu River. The contribution of the gate to the flood control capacity is closely associated with its operation modes and duration. For the maximum potential contribution of the gate, the net outflow at the proposed site is increased by 52 %. The daily peak level is decreased by a maximum of 0.12 m in Lake Taihu, by maxima of 0.26-0.37 and 0.46-0.60 m in the Taipu Canal and the Huangpu River, respectively, and by 0.05-0.39 m in the surrounding areas depending on the local topography. It is concluded that the proposed Huangpu Gate can reduce

Supraglacial lakes on Himalayan debris-covered glacier (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakai, A.; Fujita, K.

2013-12-01

currents driven by winds at the lake surface with a positive feedback process. The risk of GLOFs (glacial lake outburst flood) are analysed for Himalayan glacial lakes. We proposed an objective index for GLOF probability, based on depression angle from the lakeshore, which allows the lakes to be assessed using remotely sensed digital elevation models (DEMs). The index was verified by pre-GLOF topography derived by spy satellite imageries. We screened 2800 Himalayan glacial lakes and identified 49 lakes with potential flood volumes over 10 million m3.

Paleolimnology of Lake Ontario: AN Assessment of Glacial Meltwater Influx

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hladyniuk, R.; Longstaffe, F. J.

2010-12-01

The timing and extent of glacial meltwater outbursts from the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) may provide insight into their potential role in initiating and/or sustaining the Younger Dryas (YD) cooling event. It has been previously proposed that meltwater from the LIS suppressed thermohaline circulation in the Atlantic Ocean, leading to an abrupt change in climate (Broecker et al. 1989). Several pathways for transport of glacial meltwater to the Atlantic Ocean have been suggested in the past, including eastern flow through the St. Lawrence River system and discharge into the Arctic Ocean via a northwestern outlet (Murton et al. 2010). Glacial meltwater contributions to Lake Ontario and its ancient equivalents during the last ~14,000 cal BP have been evaluated using the oxygen-isotope compositions of ostracode shells from three sediment cores in Lake Ontario. Glacial Lake Iroquois (~12,500 cal BP) δ18O values as low as -18‰ suggest significant contribution of glacial meltwater runoff from the LIS. This glacial sediment is characterized by occasional grains of sand and gravel. These ice-rafted particles indicate how far icebergs floated and suggest close proximity to the LIS. Early Lake Ontario sediment (~12,000 cal BP) exhibits thicker laminations, suggestive of increased winter ice cover and perhaps a colder climate, and is characterized by slightly lower δ18O values (-19.5‰). The end of glacial-dominated sedimentation at ~11,800 cal BP is demarcated by a significant increase in lakewater δ18O values (-12.0‰), reflecting mixing between regional precipitation in the watershed and upstream inflow into Lake Ontario. At ~10,800 cal BP, the δ18O value of Lake Ontario decreased to ~-15‰. This change reflects the main Algonquin highstand in Lake Huron, which flooded into Lake Ontario from both the Fenelon Falls and Port Huron outlets at this time. Shortly thereafter, the opening of the North Bay outlet and isostatic rebound at the Port Huron outlet limited

Altitudinal dynamics of glacial lakes under changing climate in the Hindu Kush, Karakoram, and Himalaya ranges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashraf, Arshad; Naz, Rozina; Iqbal, Muhammad Bilal

2017-04-01

The environmental challenges posed by global warming in the Himalayan region include early and rapid melting of snow and glaciers, creation of new lakes, and expansion of old ones posing a high risk of glacial lakes outburst flood (GLOF) hazard for downstream communities. According to various elevation ranges, 3044 lakes were analyzed basinwide in the Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalaya (HKH) ranges of Pakistan using multisensor remote sensing data of the 2001-2013 period. An overall increase in glacial lakes was observed at various altitudinal ranges between 2500 and 5500, m out of which noticeable change by number was within the 4000-4500 m range. The analysis carried out by glacial-fed lakes and nonglacial-fed lakes in different river basins indicated variable patterns depending on the geographic location in the HKH region. The correlation analysis of parameters like lake area, expansion rate, and elevation was performed with 617 glacial lakes distributed in various river basins of the three HKH ranges. Lake area (2013) and elevation showed a negative relationship for all basins except Hunza, Shigar, and Shyok. The correlation between the expansion rate of lakes and elevation was on the positive side for Swat, Gilgit, Shigar, and Shingo basins-a situation that may be attributed to the variable altitudinal pattern of temperature and precipitation. In order to explore such diverse patterns of lake behavior and relationship with influential factors in the HKH, detailed studies based on using high resolution image data coupled with in situ information are a prerequisite. Although an increase in lake area observed below 3500 m would be favorable for water resource management, but could be alarming in context of glacial flood hazards that need to be monitored critically on a long-term basis.

Glacial lakes in the Indian Himalayas--from an area-wide glacial lake inventory to on-site and modeling based risk assessment of critical glacial lakes.

PubMed

Worni, Raphael; Huggel, Christian; Stoffel, Markus

2013-12-01

Glacial lake hazards and glacial lake distributions are investigated in many glaciated regions of the world, but comparably little attention has been given to these topics in the Indian Himalayas. In this study we present a first area-wide glacial lake inventory, including a qualitative classification at 251 glacial lakes >0.01 km(2). Lakes were detected in the five states spanning the Indian Himalayas, and lake distribution pattern and lake characteristics were found to differ significantly between regions. Three glacial lakes, from different geographic and climatic regions within the Indian Himalayas were then selected for a detailed risk assessment. Lake outburst probability, potential outburst magnitudes and associated damage were evaluated on the basis of high-resolution satellite imagery, field assessments and through the use of a dynamic model. The glacial lakes analyzed in the states of Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh were found to present moderate risks to downstream villages, whereas the lake in Sikkim severely threatens downstream locations. At the study site in Sikkim, a dam breach could trigger drainage of ca. 16×10(6)m(3) water and generate maximum lake discharge of nearly 7000 m(3) s(-). The identification of critical glacial lakes in the Indian Himalayas and the detailed risk assessments at three specific sites allow prioritizing further investigations and help in the definition of risk reduction actions. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Short-term expansion of glacial lakes in the Himalayas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagai, H.; Tadono, T.

2017-12-01

A glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) is a serious mountainous hazard that is related to glacial shrinkage. Despite technical developments in satellite-based lake expansion monitoring, small glacial lakes were collapsed in Bhutan in June 2015 and in Nepal in May 2017. Relatively heavy rainfall was reported downstream just before the floods. Does a large amount of short-term precipitation have a possibility of triggering a GLOF? To answer this question, the temporal change in the glacial lake area is assessed by means of satellite-based synthetic aperture radar, coupled with satellite-derived spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation to evaluate the contribution of rainfall in glacial lake expansion. The Phased Array type L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar-2 (PALSAR-2) observed the Mande Chu river basin in central Bhutan on Aug 11, 2016. Glacial lakes were manually delineated from the orthorectified backscatter amplitude image. They were compared with those delineated from the old satellite images of ALOS ( 2011), PALSAR-2 (2014-2016), and Landsat-8 (2016). The temporal and spatial distributions of precipitation (2010-2016) are obtained from the Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP) data (10-km spatial / 60-min. temporal resolutions), calibrated by in situ rain gauges (GSMap_RNL/MVL). The outlines of 11 glacial lakes in the study site were successfully traced from 2011 to 2016; rapid expansion was recorded especially in the period between March and July 2016. In this period, exceeding 500 mm of the total amount of precipitation is recorded by GSMaP, whereas the mean precipitation amount is 300-400 mm in the previous years. This implies that relatively larger precipitation occurred in 2016, which is related to the short-term expansion of the glacial lakes. The rapid expansion of smaller lakes can be explained by their relatively shallow depths, which is sensitive to the increase in inflow water volume. This study highlights the importance of high

Insight into dissolved organic matter fractions in Lake Wivenhoe during and after a major flood.

PubMed

Aryal, Rupak; Grinham, Alistair; Beecham, Simon

2016-03-01

Dissolved organic matter is an important component of biogeochemical processes in aquatic environments. Dissolved organic matter may consist of a myriad of different fractions and resultant processing pathways. In early January 2011, heavy rainfall occurred across South East Queensland, Australia causing significant catchment inflow into Lake Wivenhoe, which is the largest water supply reservoir for the city of Brisbane, Australia. The horizontal and vertical distributions of dissolved organic matter fractions in the lake during the flood period were investigated and then compared with stratified conditions with no catchment inflows. The results clearly demonstrate a large variation in dissolved organic matter fractions associated with inflow conditions compared with stratified conditions. During inflows, dissolved organic matter concentrations in the reservoir were fivefold lower than during stratified conditions. Within the dissolved organic matter fractions during inflow, the hydrophobic and humic acid fractions were almost half those recorded during the stratified period whilst low molecular weight neutrals were higher during the flood period compared to during the stratified period. Information on dissolved organic matter and the spatial and vertical variations in its constituents' concentrations across the lake can be very useful for catchment and lake management and for selecting appropriate water treatment processes.

Temporal patterns of glacial lake evolution in high-mountain environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mergili, Martin; Emmer, Adam; Viani, Cristina; Huggel, Christian

2017-04-01

Lakes forming at the front of retreating glaciers are characteristic features of high-mountain areas in a warming climate. Typically, lakes shift from the proglacial phase (lake is in direct contact with glacier) to a glacier-detached (no direct contact) and finally to a non-glacial phase (lake catchment is completely deglaciated) of lake evolution. Apart from changing glacier-lake interactions, each stage is characterized by particular features of lake growth, and by the lake's susceptibility to sudden drainage (lake outburst flood). While this concept appears to be valid globally, some mountain areas are rich in dynamically evolving proglacial lakes, while in others most lakes have already shifted to the glacier-detached or even non-glacial phase. In the present contribution we (i) explore and quantify the history of glacial lake formation and evolution over the past up to 70 years; (ii) assess the current situation of selected contrasting mountain areas (eastern and western European Alps, southern and northern Pamir, Cordillera Blanca); and (iii) link the patterns of lake evolution to the prevailing topographic and glaciological characteristics in order to improve the understanding of high-mountain geoenvironmental change. In the eastern Alps we identify only very few lakes in the proglacial stage. While many lakes appeared and dynamically evolved until the 1980s between 2550 m and 2800 m asl, most of them have lost glacier contact until the 2000s, whereas very few new proglacial lakes appeared at the same time. Even though a similar trend is observed in the higher western Alps, a more dynamic glacial lake evolution is observed there. The arid southern Pamir is characterized by a high number of proglacial lakes, mainly around 4500 m asl. There is strong evidence that glacial lake evolution is, after a highly dynamic phase between the 1970s and approx. 2000, decelerating. Few proglacial lakes exist in the higher and more humid, heavily glacierized northern Pamir

Fine-grained sediment gravity flow deposits induced by flood and lake slope failure events: examples of lacustrine varved sediments in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ishihara, Yoshiro; Sasaki, Yasunori; Sasaki, Hana; Onishi, Yuri

2016-04-01

Fine-grained sediment gravity flow deposits induced by flood and lake slope failure events are frequently intercalated in lacustrine successions. When sediment gravity flow deposits are present in varved sediments, it is suggested that they provide valuable information about sediment gravity flows, because they can easily trace laterally and can give the magnitude of erosion and recurrence interval of events. In addition, because large sedimentary bodies of stacked sediment gravity flow deposits in varved sediments of a calm lake are not suggested, a relatively simple depositional environment is expected. In the present study, we analysed sedimentary facies of sediment gravity flow deposits in varved lacustrine diatomites in the Middle Pleistocene Hiruzenbara and Miyajima formations in Japan, and concluded a depositional model of the lacustrine sediment gravity flow deposits. Varved diatomites: The Hiruzenbara Fm., a dammed lake fill as foots of Hiruzen Volcanos, is deposited during an interglacial period during MIS12 to 15. Varves of ca. 8000 yr were measured in a 20 m intercalating flood and lake slope failure-induced sediment gravity flow deposits. The Miyajima Fm., distributed in a paleo-caldera lake in NE Japan, includes many sediment gravity flow deposits possibly originated from fandeltas around the lake. These formations have differences in their depositional setting; the Hiruzebara Fm. was deposited in a large lake basin, whereas the Miyajima Fm. was deposited in a relatively small basin. Because of the depositional setting, intercalation of volcaniclastics is dominant in the Miyajima Fm. Lacustrine sediment gravity flow deposits: Sediment gravity flow deposits in both formations can be classified into flood- and lake slope failure-induced types based on the sedimentary facies. Composites of the both types are also found. Flood-induced types comprise fine-grained silts dominated by carbonaceous fragments, whereas lake slope failure-induced types are

Three-Dimensional Simulation of Avalanche-Generated Impulse Waves and Evaluation of Lake-Lowering Scenarios at Lake Palcacocha, Peru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chisolm, R. E.; McKinney, D. C.

2014-12-01

Accelerated retreat of Andean glaciers in recent decades due to a warming climate has caused the emergence and growth of glacial lakes. As these lakes continue to grow, they pose an increasing risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). GLOFs can be triggered by moraine failures or by avalanches, rockslides, or ice calving into glacial lakes. For many decades Lake Palcacocha in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru has threatened citizens living in the city of Huaraz which was devastated by a GLOF in 1941. A safety system for Lake Palcacocha was put in place in the 1970's to control the lake level, but the lake has since grown to the point where it is once again dangerous. Overhanging ice from the glaciers above and a relatively low freeboard make the lake vulnerable to avalanches and landslides. Lake Palcacocha is used as a case study to investigate the impact of an avalanche event on the lake dynamics. Three-dimensional lake modeling in the context of glacial hazards is not common, but 3D simulations can enhance our understanding of avalanche-generated impulse waves and their downstream impacts. In this work, a 3D hydrodynamic model is used to simulate the generation of an impulse wave from an avalanche falling into the lake, wave propagation, and overtopping of the terminal moraine. These results are used as inputs to a downstream model to predict the impact from a GLOF. As lowering the level of the lake is the most likely mitigation alternative, several scenarios are considered to evaluate the impact from avalanche events with a reduction in the lake level. The results of this work can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of the current lake management system and potential lake-lowering alternatives. Use of a robust 3D lake model enables more accurate predictions of peak flows during GLOF events and the time scales of these events so that mitigation strategies can be developed that reduce the risk to communities living downstream of hazardous lakes.

Satellite Monitoring and Characterization of the 2010 Rockslide-Dammed Lake Gojal, North Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leonard, G. J.; Kargel, J. S.; Crippen, R. E.; Evans, S. G.; Delaney, K. B.; Schneider, J. F.

2010-12-01

On January 4, 2010, a landslide blocked the Hunza River at Attabad, northern Pakistan (36.308°N, 74.820°E). The landslide destroyed the village of Attabad killing 19 people, and formed a dam approximately 1200m long, 350 meters wide, and 125 meters high. The flow of the Hunza river was blocked for 144 days, forming Lake Gojal. In addition to inundating several villages and submerging 22 km of the regionally critical Karakoram Highway, >25,000 people have been displaced or remain cut off from overland connection with the rest of the country. Lake overtopping began on May 29 via a 15m deep spillway excavated through the saddle of the dam. Remarkably, the slowly eroding natural structure remains largely intact and currently represents a new geologic feature, although a threat remains from possible catastrophic outburst flooding. We have monitored growth of the lake with multi-temporal satellite imagery collected from ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal and Reflection Radiometer) and ALI (Advanced Land Imager) sensors. We applied NASA’s ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) and SRTM-3 digital terrain data, along with field data obtained onsite by Schneider, and by Pakistan’s NDMA to derive volumes of the growing lake. Lake size peaked during mid-summer when it was ~22 km long, 12 km2, 119m deep, and contained 540 to 620 Mm3 water (SRTM-3 and GDEM +5m global correction estimates respectively). Our estimates indicated lake volumes three to four times higher than media quotes, and before spillover, were used to improve predictions of possible flood discharge and disaster management planning. Estimates of valley inflow based on a 31-year hydrographic history (Archer, D., 2003, Jour. Hydrology 274, 198-210) are consistent with our volume infilling estimates. As early as April 14 our volume assessments, coupled with hydrographic and seepage data were used to project a spillover date range of May 28-June 2, bracketing the actual overflow date. Additionally, we have

A multi-level strategy for anticipating future glacier lake formation and associated hazard potentials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frey, Holger; Haeberli, Wilfried; Huggel, Christian; Linsbauer, Andreas

2010-05-01

Due to the expected atmospheric warming, mountain glaciers will retreat, potentially collapse or even vanish completely during the 21st century. When overdeepened parts of the glacier bed are exposed in the course of glacier retreat, glacier lakes can form. Such lakes have a potential for hydropower production, which is an important source of renewable energy. Furthermore they are important elements in the perception of high-mountain landscapes and they can compensate the loss of landscape attractiveness from glacier shrinkage to a certain degree. However, glacier lakes are also a potential source of serious flood and debris flow hazards, especially in densely populated mountain ranges. Thus, methods for early detection of sites with potential lake formation are important for early planning and development of protection concepts. In this contribution we present a multi-scale approach to detect sites with potential future lake formation on four different levels of detail. The methods are developed, tested and - as far as possible - verified in the Swiss Alps; but they can be applied to mountain regions all over the world. On a first level, potential overdeepenings are estimated by selecting flat parts (slope < 5°) of the current glacier surface based on a digital elevation model (DEM) and digital glacier outlines. The same input data are used on the second level for a manual detection of overdeepenings, which are expected at locations where the following three criteria apply: (a) A distinct increase of the glacier surface slope in down-glacier direction; (b) an enlarged width followed by a narrow glacier part; and (c) regions with compressive flow (no crevasses) followed by extending flow (heavily crevassed). On the third level, more sophisticated approaches to model the glacier bed topography are applied to get more quantitative information on potential future lakes. Based on the results of this level, scenarios of future lake outbursts can be modeled with simple

Managing Long-term Risks from Natural Hazards in a Dynamic Volcanic and Institutional Environment: The Spirit Lake Story

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grant, G.; Major, J. J.; Lewis, S.

2016-12-01

The 18 May 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens, Washington, spawned a massive (109 m3) debris avalanche, a violent and extensive pyroclastic density current, lahars, pyroclastic flows, and ashfall. It fundamentally transformed the proximal landscape, and created potential secondary hazards that remain legacies of the eruption over 35 years later. The debris avalanche raised the level of Spirit Lake—a picturesque lake at the foot of the volcano—by 60 m and blocked its outlet. Abruptly, the lake went from charming to menacing, capable of releasing a potentially catastrophic outburst flood (108 m3) that could transform into a massive (109 m3) debris flow if rising lake water breached the blockage. To reduce risk of an uncontrolled breach, and under Presidential emergency declaration, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) bored a 2,590-m-long outlet tunnel through bedrock within the U.S. Forest Service (USFS)-administered Mount St. Helens National Volcanic Monument. Drainage through the tunnel maintains a safe lake level below a geologic contact in the blockage where seepage erosion could result in failure. Although the tunnel has performed its mission for over 30 years, episodic deformation has reduced its outlet capacity, necessitating expensive (>$1 million) repairs and closures which temporarily caused precarious lake rises, and prompted re-examination of the strategy to maintain a safe lake level. Here we discuss how federal researchers (USFS and U.S. Geological Survey) interact with Monument and USFS land managers, USACE, the National Academy of Sciences, and the public at large to develop and evaluate, under Congressional mandate, alternative strategies for reducing the risk of catastrophic flooding. Amidst this nexus of institutions, agendas, and perspectives, set against the backdrop of a rapidly evolving landscape subject to a trio of hazards (eruptions, earthquakes, floods), competing interests, costs, and natural risks must be balanced and managed.

Comparing CMIP-3 and CMIP-5 climate projections on flooding estimation of Devils Lake of North Dakota, USA.

PubMed

Kharel, Gehendra; Kirilenko, Andrei

2018-01-01

Water level fluctuations in endorheic lakes are highly susceptible to even slight changes in climate and land use. Devils Lake (DL) in North Dakota, USA is an endorheic system that has undergone multi-decade flooding driven by changes in regional climate. Flooding mitigation strategies have centered on the release of lake water to a nearby river system through artificial outlets, resulting in legal challenges and environmental concerns related to water quality, downstream flooding, species migration, stakeholder opposition, and transboundary water conflicts between the US and Canada. Despite these drawbacks, running outlets would result in low overspill risks in the next 30 years. In this study we evaluated the efficacy of this outlet-based mitigation strategy under scenarios based on the latest IPCC future climate projections. We used the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project CMIP-5 weather patterns from 17 general circulation models (GCMs) obtained under four representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios and downscaled to the DL region. Then, we simulated the changes in lake water levels using the soil and water assessment tool based hydrological model of the watershed. We estimated the probability of future flood risks under those scenarios and compared those with previously estimated overspill risks under the CMIP-3 climate. The CMIP-5 ensemble projected a mean annual temperature of 5.78 °C and mean daily precipitation of 1.42 mm/day; both are higher than the existing CMIP-3 future estimates of 4.98 °C and 1.40 mm/day, respectively. The increased precipitation and higher temperature resulted in a significant increase of DL's overspill risks: 24.4-47.1% without release from outlets and 3.5-14.4% even if the outlets are operated at their combined full 17 m 3 /s capacity. The modeled increases in overspill risks indicate a greater frequency of water releases through the artificial outlets. Future risk mitigation management should include providing a

Pinedale glacial history of the upper Arkansas River valley: New moraine chronologies, modeling results, and geologic mapping

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schweinsberg, Avriel D.; Briner, Jason P.; Shroba, Ralph R.; Licciardi, Joseph M.; Leonard, Eric M.; Brugger, Keith A.; Russell, Charles M.

2016-01-01

This field-trip guide outlines the glacial history of the upper Arkansas River valley, Colorado, and builds on a previous GSA field trip to the area in 2010. The following will be presented: (1) new cosmogenic 10Be exposure ages of moraine boulders from the Pinedale and Bull Lake glaciations (Marine Isotope Stages 2 and 6, respectively) located adjacent to the Twin Lakes Reservoir, (2) numerical modeling of glaciers during the Pinedale glaciation in major tributaries draining into the upper Arkansas River, (3) discharge estimates for glacial-lake outburst floods in the upper Arkansas River valley, and (4) 10Be ages on flood boulders deposited downvalley from the moraine sequences. This research was stimulated by a new geologic map of the Granite 7.5′ quadrangle, in which the mapping of surficial deposits was revised based in part on the interpretation of newly acquired LiDAR data and field investigations. The new 10Be ages of the Pinedale terminal moraine at Twin Lakes average 21.8 ± 0.7 ka (n = 14), which adds to nearby Pinedale terminal moraine ages of 23.6 ± 1.4 ka (n = 5), 20.5 ± 0.2 ka (n = 3), and 16.6 ± 1.0 ka (n = 7), and downvalley outburst flood terraces that date to 20.9 ± 0.9 ka (n = 4) and 19.0 ± 0.6 ka (n = 4). This growing chronology leads to improved understanding of the controls and timing of glaciation in the western United States, the modeling of glacial-lake outburst flooding, and the reconstruction of paleotemperature through glacier modeling.

Flood hazards along the Toutle and Cowlitz rivers, Washington, from a hypothetical failure of Castle Lake blockage

USGS Publications Warehouse

Laenen, Antonius; Orzol, L.L.

1987-01-01

A recent evaluation of groundwater and material in the blockage impounding Castle Lake shows that the blockage is potentially unstable against failure from piping due to heave and internal erosion when groundwater levels are seasonally high. There is also a remote possibility that a 6.8 or greater magnitude earthquake could occur in the Castle Lake area when groundwater levels are critically high. If this situation occurs, the debris blockage that confines Castle Lake could breach from successive slope failure with liquefaction of a portion of the blockage. A dam-break computer model was used to simulate discharge through a hypothetical breach in the Castle Lake blockage that could be caused by failure by heave, internal erosion, or liquefaction. Approximately 18,500 acre-ft of stored water would be released from an assumed breach that fully developed to a 1,000-ft width over a 15-minute time period. The resulting flood, incorporating 3.4 x 10 to the 6th power cu yd of the debris blockage, would reach a peak magnitude of 1,500,000 cu ft/s (cubic feet per second). The flood is also assumed to incorporate an additional 137x10 to the 6th power cu yd of saturated debris material from downstream deposits. Flow is considered to be hyperconcentrated with sediment throughout the course of the flood. The hypothetical hyperconcentrated flow is routed downstream, superimposed on normal winter flood flows by use of a one-dimensional unsteady-state numerical streamflow simulation model. From a starting magnitude of 1,500,000 cu ft/s, the peak increases to 2,100,000 cu ft/s at N-1 Dam (12 mi downstream) and attenuates to 1,200,000 cu ft/s at Kid Valley (25 mi downstream) , to 100,000 cu ft/s at Longview and the confluence of the Columbia River (65 mi downstream). From time of breach, the flood peak would take 2.2 hr to reach Toutle, 3.8 hr to reach Castle Rock, and 8.5 hr to reach Longview. Communities of Toutle , Castle Rock, Kelso, and Longview would experience extreme to

Frequency and intensity of high-altitude floods over the last 3.5 ka in northwestern French Alps (Lake Anterne)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giguet-Covex, Charline; Arnaud, Fabien; Enters, Dirk; Poulenard, Jérôme; Millet, Laurent; Francus, Pierre; David, Fernand; Rey, Pierre-Jérôme; Wilhelm, Bruno; Delannoy, Jean-Jacques

2012-01-01

In central Western Europe, several studies have shown that colder Holocene periods, such as the Little Ice Age, also correspond to wet periods. However, in mountain areas which are highly sensitive to erosion processes and where precipitation events can be localized, past evolution of hydrological activity might be more complicated. To assess these past hydrological changes, a paleolimnological approach was applied on a 13.4-m-long sediment core taken in alpine Lake Anterne (2063 m asl) and representing the last 3.5 ka. Lake sedimentation is mainly composed of flood deposits triggered by precipitation events. Sedimentological and geochemical analyses show that floods were more frequent during cold periods while high-intensity flood events occurred preferentially during warmer periods. In mild temperature conditions, both flood patterns are present. This underlines the complex relationship between flood hazards and climatic change in mountain areas. During the warmer and/or dryer times of the end of Iron Age and the Roman Period, both the frequency and intensity of floods increased. This is interpreted as an effect of human-induced clearing for grazing activities and reveals that anthropogenic interferences must be taken into account when reconstructing climatic signals from natural archives.

A new remote hazard and risk assessment framework for glacial lakes in the Nepal Himalaya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rounce, David R.; McKinney, Daene C.; Lala, Jonathan M.; Byers, Alton C.; Watson, C. Scott

2016-08-01

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) pose a significant threat to downstream communities and infrastructure due to their potential to rapidly unleash stored lake water. The most common triggers of these GLOFs are mass movement entering the lake and/or the self-destruction of the terminal moraine due to hydrostatic pressures or a buried ice core. This study initially uses previous qualitative and quantitative assessments to understand the hazards associated with eight glacial lakes in the Nepal Himalaya that are widely considered to be highly dangerous. The previous assessments yield conflicting classifications with respect to each glacial lake, which spurred the development of a new holistic, reproducible, and objective approach based solely on remotely sensed data. This remote hazard assessment analyzes mass movement entering the lake, the stability of the moraine, and lake growth in conjunction with a geometric GLOF to determine the downstream impacts such that the present and future risk associated with each glacial lake may be quantified. The new approach is developed within a hazard, risk, and management action framework with the aim that this remote assessment may guide future field campaigns, modeling efforts, and ultimately risk-mitigation strategies. The remote assessment was found to provide valuable information regarding the hazards faced by each glacial lake and results were discussed within the context of the current state of knowledge to help guide future efforts.

Effect of permafrost thaw on the dynamics of lakes recharged by ice-jam floods: case study in Yukon Flats, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steve M. Jepsen,; Walvoord, Michelle Ann; Voss, Clifford I.; Rover, Jennifer R.

2016-01-01

Large river floods are a key water source for many lakes in fluvial periglacial settings. Where permeable sediments occur, the distribution of permafrost may play an important role in the routing of floodwaters across a floodplain. This relationship is explored for lakes in the discontinuous permafrost of Yukon Flats, interior Alaska, using an analysis that integrates satellite-derived gradients in water surface elevation, knowledge of hydrogeology, and hydrologic modeling. We observed gradients in water surface elevation between neighboring lakes ranging from 0.001 to 0.004. These high gradients, despite a ubiquitous layer of continuous shallow gravel across the flats, are consistent with limited groundwater flow across lake basins resulting from the presence of permafrost. Permafrost impedes the propagation of floodwaters in the shallow subsurface and constrains transmission to “fill-and-spill” over topographic depressions (surface sills), as we observed for the Twelvemile-Buddy Lake pair following a May 2013 ice-jam flood on the Yukon River. Model results indicate that permafrost table deepening of 1–11 m in gravel, depending on watershed geometry and subsurface properties, could shift important routing of floodwater to lakes from overland flow (fill-and-spill) to shallow groundwater flow (“fill-and-seep”). Such a shift is possible in the next several hundred years of ground surface warming, and may bring about more synchronous water level changes between neighboring lakes following large flood events. This relationship offers a potentially useful tool, well-suited to remote sensing, for identifying long-term changes in shallow groundwater flow resulting from thawing of permafrost.

Interaction of hydrological regime and vegetation in a seasonally flooded lake wetland (Poyang Lake) in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Qi

2017-04-01

Hydrological regime has been widely recognized as one of the major forces determining vegetation distribution in seasonally flooded wetlands. To explore the influences of hydrological conditions on the spatial distribution of wetland vegetation, an experimental transect in Poyang Lake wetland, the largest freshwater lake in China, was selected as a study area. In-situ high time frequency observations of climate, soil moisture, groundwater level and surface water level were simultaneously conducted. Vegetation was sampled periodically to obtain species composition, diversity and biomass. Results show that significant hydrological gradient exists along the experimental transect. Both groundwater level and soil moisture demonstrate high correlation with the distribution of different communities of vegetation. Above- and belowground biomass present Gaussian models along the gradient of groundwater depth in growing seasons. It was found that the optimal average groundwater depths for above- and belowground biomass are 0.8 m and 0.5 m, respectively. Numerical simulations using HYDRUS-1D further indicated that the groundwater depths had significant influences on the water usage by vegetation, which suggested the high dependence of wetland vegetation on groundwater, even in a wet climate zone such as Poyang Lake. The study revealed new knowledge on the interaction of hydrological regime and wetland vegetation, and provided scientific support for an integrated management of balancing wetland ecology and water resources development in Poyang Lake, and other lake floodplain wetlands, with strong human interferences.

Numerical simulation of the paleohydrology of glacial Lake Oshkosh, eastern Wisconsin, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clark, J.A.; Befus, K.M.; Hooyer, T.S.; Stewart, P.W.; Shipman, T.D.; Gregory, C.T.; Zylstra, D.J.

2008-01-01

Proglacial lakes, formed during retreat of the Laurentide ice sheet, evolved quickly as outlets became ice-free and the earth deformed through glacial isostatic adjustment. With high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) and GIS methods, it is possible to reconstruct the evolution of surface hydrology. When a DEM deforms through time as predicted by our model of viscoelastic earth relaxation, the entire surface hydrologic system with its lakes, outlets, shorelines and rivers also evolves without requiring assumptions of outlet position. The method is applied to proglacial Lake Oshkosh in Wisconsin (13,600 to 12,900??cal yr BP). Comparison of predicted to observed shoreline tilt indicates the ice sheet was about 400??m thick over the Great Lakes region. During ice sheet recession, each of the five outlets are predicted to uplift more than 100??m and then subside approximately 30??m. At its maximum extent, Lake Oshkosh covered 6600??km2 with a volume of 111??km3. Using the Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System model, flow velocities during glacial outburst floods up to 9??m/s and peak discharge of 140,000??m3/s are predicted, which could drain 33.5??km3 of lake water in 10??days and transport boulders up to 3??m in diameter. ?? 2007 University of Washington.

Glacial lake monitoring in the Karakoram Range using historical Landsat Thematic Mapper archive (1982 - 2014)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, J. Y. H.; Kelly, R. E. J.; Evans, S. G.

2014-12-01

Glacierized regions are one of the most dynamic land surface environments on the planet (Evans and Delaney, In Press). They are susceptible to various types of natural hazards such as landslides, glacier avalanches, and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF). GLOF events are increasingly common and present catastrophic flood hazards, the causes of which are sensitive to climate change in complex high mountain topography (IPCC, 2013). Inundation and debris flows from GLOF events have repeatedly caused significant infrastructure damages and loss of human lives in the high mountain regions of the world (Huggel et al, 2002). The research is designed to develop methods for the consistent detection of glacier lakes formation during the Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) era (1982 - present), to quantify the frequency of glacier lake development and estimate lake volume using Landsat imagery and digital elevation model (DEM) data. Landsat TM scenes are used to identify glacier lakes in the Shimshal and Shaksgam valley, particularly the development of Lake Virjeab in year 2000 and Kyagar Lake in 1998. A simple thresholding technique using Landsat TM infrared bands, along with object-based segmentation approaches are used to isolate lake extent. Lake volume is extracted by intersecting the lake extent with the DEM surface. Based on previous studies and DEM characterization in the region, Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) DEM is preferred over Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection (ASTER) GDEM due to higher accuracy. Calculated errors in SRTM height estimates are 5.81 m compared with 8.34 m for ASTER. SRTM data are preferred because the DEM measurements were made over short duration making the DEM internally consistent. Lake volume derived from the Landsat TM imagery and DEM are incorporated into a simple GLOF model identified by Clague and Matthews (1973) to estimate the potential peak discharge (Qmax) of a GLOF event. We compare the simple Qmax estimates with

A relative vulnerability estimation of flood disaster using data envelopment analysis in the Dongting Lake region of Hunan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, C.-H.; Li, N.; Wu, L.-C.; Hu, A.-J.

2013-07-01

The vulnerability to flood disaster is addressed by a number of studies. It is of great importance to analyze the vulnerability of different regions and various periods to enable the government to make policies for distributing relief funds and help the regions to improve their capabilities against disasters, yet a recognized paradigm for such studies seems missing. Vulnerability is defined and evaluated through either physical or economic-ecological perspectives depending on the field of the researcher concerned. The vulnerability, however, is the core of both systems as it entails systematic descriptions of flood severities or disaster management units. The research mentioned often has a development perspective, and in this article we decompose the overall flood system into several factors: disaster driver, disaster environment, disaster bearer, and disaster intensity, and take the interaction mechanism among all factors as an indispensable function. The conditions of flood disaster components are demonstrated with disaster driver risk level, disaster environment stability level and disaster bearer sensitivity, respectively. The flood system vulnerability is expressed as vulnerability = f(risk, stability, sensitivity). Based on the theory, data envelopment analysis method (DEA) is used to detail the relative vulnerability's spatiotemporal variation of a flood disaster system and its components in the Dongting Lake region. The study finds that although a flood disaster system's relative vulnerability is closely associated with its components' conditions, the flood system and its components have a different vulnerability level. The overall vulnerability is not the aggregation of its components' vulnerability. On a spatial scale, zones central and adjacent to Dongting Lake and/or river zones are characterized with very high vulnerability. Zones with low and very low vulnerability are mainly distributed in the periphery of the Dongting Lake region. On a temporal

Comparing CMIP-3 and CMIP-5 climate projections on flooding estimation of Devils Lake of North Dakota, USA

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Background Water level fluctuations in endorheic lakes are highly susceptible to even slight changes in climate and land use. Devils Lake (DL) in North Dakota, USA is an endorheic system that has undergone multi-decade flooding driven by changes in regional climate. Flooding mitigation strategies have centered on the release of lake water to a nearby river system through artificial outlets, resulting in legal challenges and environmental concerns related to water quality, downstream flooding, species migration, stakeholder opposition, and transboundary water conflicts between the US and Canada. Despite these drawbacks, running outlets would result in low overspill risks in the next 30 years. Methods In this study we evaluated the efficacy of this outlet-based mitigation strategy under scenarios based on the latest IPCC future climate projections. We used the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project CMIP-5 weather patterns from 17 general circulation models (GCMs) obtained under four representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios and downscaled to the DL region. Then, we simulated the changes in lake water levels using the soil and water assessment tool based hydrological model of the watershed. We estimated the probability of future flood risks under those scenarios and compared those with previously estimated overspill risks under the CMIP-3 climate. Results The CMIP-5 ensemble projected a mean annual temperature of 5.78 °C and mean daily precipitation of 1.42 mm/day; both are higher than the existing CMIP-3 future estimates of 4.98 °C and 1.40 mm/day, respectively. The increased precipitation and higher temperature resulted in a significant increase of DL’s overspill risks: 24.4–47.1% without release from outlets and 3.5–14.4% even if the outlets are operated at their combined full 17 m3/s capacity. Discussion The modeled increases in overspill risks indicate a greater frequency of water releases through the artificial outlets. Future risk mitigation

Identification of landslide-prone zones in the geomorphically and climatically sensitive Mandakini valley, (central Himalaya), for disaster governance using the Weights of Evidence method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poonam; Rana, Naresh; Champati ray, Parshant Kumar; Bisht, Pinkey; Bagri, Dhirendra Singh; Wasson, Robert James; Sundriyal, Yashpal

2017-05-01

The entire Himalayan region is prone to disasters, with many people being vulnerable to hydroclimatic threats such as extreme rainfall-driven floods, glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), landslide lake outburst floods (LLOFs), and landslides triggered by rainfall. Landslides and floods are related, as the former cause the lakes that burst, and floods can undercut slopes and cause landslides. During the past 200 years, landslides and floods caused by LLOFs in the Garhwal Himalaya have occurred in 1894, 1970, and 1978; but the most disastrous event, in terms of loss of life and economic impact, occurred in June 2013, which was a result of extreme rainfall in the Higher Himalaya and breaching of a moraine-dammed lake, very short-lived LLOFs, and rainfall-induced runoff and landslides. Outmigration from the area as a result of the 2013 event has caused anxiety about the future of the economy and also concerns about security of a state that has an international border. As a contribution to planning and reconstruction to secure the livelihoods of the local people and to entice migrants to return, this paper identifies zones in the Mandakini valley susceptible to landslides using a 'Weights of Evidence' approach. The roles of climate, geology, and geomorphology of the valley are also given attention to explain the reasons for the disastrous event of June 2013. The results of the research presented here may be an important input to disaster governance.

Glacial lake evolution in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau and the cause of rapid expansion of proglacial lakes linked to glacial-hydrogeomorphic processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Chunqiao; Sheng, Yongwei; Ke, Linghong; Nie, Yong; Wang, Jida

2016-09-01

Glacial lakes, as an important component of the cryosphere in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau (SETP) in response to climate change, pose significant threats to the downstream lives and properties of people, engineering construction, and ecological environment via outburst floods, yet we currently have limited knowledge of their distribution, evolution, and the driving mechanism of rapid expansions due to the low accessibility and harsh natural conditions. By integrating optical imagery, satellite altimetry and digital elevation model (DEM), this study presents a regional-scale investigation of glacial lake dynamics across two river basins of the SETP during 1988-2013 and further explores the glacial-hydrogeomorphic process of rapidly expanding lakes. In total 1278 and 1396 glacial lakes were inventoried in 1988 and 2013, respectively. Approximately 92.4% of the lakes in 2013 are not in contact with modern glaciers, and the remaining 7.6% includes 27 (1.9%) debris-contact lakes (in contact with debris-covered ice) and 80 (5.7%) cirque lakes. In categorizing lake variations, we found that debris-contact proglacial lakes experienced much more rapid expansions (∼75%) than cirque lakes (∼7%) and non-glacier-contact lakes (∼3%). To explore the cause of rapid expansion for these debris-contact lakes, we further investigated the mass balance of parent glaciers and elevation changes in lake surfaces and debris-covered glacier tongues using time-series Landsat images, ICESat altimetry, and DEM. Results reveal that the upstream expansion of debris-contact proglacial lakes was not directly associated with rising water levels but with a geomorphological alternation of upstream lake basins caused by melting-induced debris subsidence at glacier termini. This suggests that the hydrogeomorphic process of glacier thinning and retreat, in comparison with direct glacial meltwater alone, may have played a dominant role in the recent glacial lake expansion observed across the

Floods on White Rock Creek above White Rock Lake at Dallas, Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gilbert, Clarence R.

1963-01-01

The White Rock Creek watershed within the city limits of Dallas , Texas, presents problems not unique in the rapid residential and industrial development encountered by many cities throughout the United States. The advantages of full development of the existing area within a city before expanding city boundaries, are related to both economics and civic pride. The expansion of city boundaries usually results in higher per capital costs for the operation of city governments. Certainly no responsible city official would oppose reasonable development of watersheds and flood plains and thus sacrifice an increase in tax revenue. Within the words "reasonable development" lies the problem faced by these officials. They are aware that the natural function of a stream channel, and its associated flood plain is to carry away excess water in time of flood. They are also aware that failure to recognize this has often led to haphazard development on flood plains with a consequent increase in flood damages. In the absence of factual data defining the risk involved in occupying flood plains, stringent corrective and preventative measures must be taken to regulate man's activities on flood plains to a point beyond normal precaution. Flood-flow characteristics in the reach of White Rock Creek that lies between the northern city boundary of Dallas and Northwest Highway (Loop 12) at the upper end of White Rock Lake, are presented in this report. Hydrologic data shown include history and magnitude of floods, flood profiles, outlines of areas inundated by three floods, and estimates of mean velocities of flow at selected points. Approximate areas inundated by floods of April 1942 and July 1962 along White Rock Creek and by the flood of October 1962 along Cottonwood Creek, Floyd Branch, and Jackson Branch, are delineated on maps. Greater floods have undoubtedly occurred in the past but no attempt is made to show their probable overflow limits because basic data on such floods could not

Grand Lake Saint Marys, Ohio, Survey Report for Flood Control and Allied Purposes. Volume 1.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-08-01

nuprotected shoreline have reduced the lake depth. A range of structural and, nanatructural flood damage reduction1 usasures wee exmined. Nonstructural masaes ...24 330 Apr 1972 872.67 32 310 Apr 1938 872.42 19 550 Feb 1950 872.42 24 520 Apr 1978 872.17 37 380 Jan 1949 872.08 19 260 Apr 1957 872.08 23 550 Jun...1958 871.92 11 380 May 1933 871.92 5 490 Nov 1972 871.92 9 510 16 . ..... Ie Flood Damages The areas under consideration include Beaver Creek

77 FR 50667 - Proposed Flood Elevation Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-08-22

... table provided here represents the flooding sources, location of referenced elevations, effective and...). Specifically, it addresses the flooding sources Fourmile Creek and Lake Erie. DATES: Comments are to be... Jurisdictions)'' addressed the flooding sources Fourmile Creek and Lake Erie. That table contained inaccurate...

High-water marks from flooding in Lake Champlain from April through June 2011 and Tropical Storm Irene in August 2011 in Vermont

USGS Publications Warehouse

Medalie, Laura; Olson, S.A.

2013-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Federal Emergency Management Agency, identified high-water marks after two floods in Vermont during 2011. Following a snowy winter, new monthly precipitation records were set in Burlington, Vermont, in April and May 2011, causing extensive flooding from April through June. The spring 2011 flooding resulted in a new record for stage (103.27 feet, referenced to the National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929) at the Lake Champlain at Burlington, Vt., gaging station (04294500). During August 28 and 29, 2011, tropical storm Irene delivered rainfall totals of 3 to more than 7 inches throughout Vermont, which resulted in extensive flooding and new streamflow records at nine streamgaging stations. Four presidential declarations of disaster were made following the 2011 flood events in Vermont. Thirty-nine high-water marks were identified and flagged to mark the highest levels of Lake Champlain from the May 2011 flooding, and 1,138 high-water marks were identified and flagged along Vermont rivers after flooding from tropical storm Irene in August 2011. Seventy-four percent of the high-water marks that were flagged were later found and surveyed to the North American Vertical Datum of 1988.

Floods of 1952 in California. Flood of January 1952 in the south San Francisco Bay region; Snowmelt flood of 1952 in Kern River, Tulare Lake, and San Joaquin River basins

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rantz, S.E.; Stafford, H.M.

1956-01-01

Two major floods occurred in California in 1952. The first was the flood of January 11-13 in the south San Francisco Bay region that resulted from heavy rains which began on the morning of January 11 and ended about noon January 13. This flood was notable for the magnitude of the peak discharges, although these discharges were reduced by the controlling effect of reservoirs for conservation and flood-control purposes. The flood damage was thereby reduced, and no lives were lost; damage, nevertheless, amounted to about $1.400.000. The second flood was due, not to the immediate runoff of heavy rain, but to the melting of one of the largest snow packs ever recorded in the Sierra Nevada range. In the spring and summer of 1952, flood runoff occurred on all the major streams draining the Sierra Nevada. In the northern half of the Central Valley basin?the Sacramento River basin?flood volumes and maximum daily discharges were not exceptional. and flood damage was not appreciable. However, in the southern half, which is formed by the Kern River, Tulare Lake, and San Joaquin River basins, new records for snowmelt runoff were established for some streams; but for below-normal temperatures and shorter, less warm hot spells, record flood discharges would have occurred on many others. In the three basins an area of 200,000 acres. largely cropland. was inundated, and damage was estimated at $11,800,000.

Volcanic flood simulation of magma effusion using FLO-2D for drainage of a caldera lake at the Mt. Baekdusan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Khil-Ha; Kim, Sung-Wook; Kim, Sang-Hyun

2014-05-01

Many volcanic craters and calderas are filled with large amounts of water that can pose significant flood hazards to downstream communities due to their high elevation and the potential for catastrophic releases of water. Recent reports pointed out the Baekdusan volcano that is located between the border of China and North Korea as a potential active volcano. Since Millennium Eruption around 1000 AD, smaller eruptions have occurred at roughly 100-year intervals, with the last one in 1903. Sudden release of huge volume of water stored in temporarily elevated caldera lakes are a recurrent feature of volcanic environments, due to the case with which outlet channels are blocked by and re-cut through, unwelded pyroclastic deposits. The volcano is showing signs of waking from a century-long slumber recently. Volcanic floods, including breakouts from volcanic lakes, can affect communities beyond the areas immediately affected by a volcanic eruption and cause significant hydrological hazards because floods from lake-filled calderas may be particularly large and high. Although a number of case studies have been presented in the literature, investigation of the underlying physical processes is required as well as a method for interpreting the process of the rapid release of water stored in a caldera lake. The development of various forecasting techniques to prevent and minimize economic and social damage is in urgent need. This study focuses on constructing a flood hazard map triggered by the magma effusion in the Baekdusan volcano. A physically-based uplift model was developed to compute the amount of water and time to peak flow. The ordinary differential equation was numerically solved using the finite difference method and Newton-Raphson iteration method was used to solve nonlinear equation. The magma effusion rate into the caldera lake is followed by examples at other volcanic activities. As a result, the hydrograph serves as an upper boundary condition when hydrodynamic

76 FR 26982 - Proposed Flood Elevation Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-05-10

.... Specifically, it addresses the flooding source Licking River (Cave Run Lake). DATES: Comments are to be... Incorporated Areas,'' addressed the flooding source Licking River (Cave Run Lake). That table contained... River (Cave Run Lake)....... At the Buck Creek None +765 City of Frenchburg, confluence. Unincorporated...

Mass-movement and flood-induced deposits in Lake Ledro, southern Alps, Italy: implications for Holocene palaeohydrology and natural hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simonneau, A.; Chapron, E.; Vannière, B.; Wirth, S. B.; Gilli, A.; Di Giovanni, C.; Anselmetti, F. S.; Desmet, M.; Magny, M.

2013-03-01

High-resolution seismic profiles and sediment cores from Lake Ledro combined with soil and riverbed samples from the lake's catchment area are used to assess the recurrence of natural hazards (earthquakes and flood events) in the southern Italian Alps during the Holocene. Two well-developed deltas and a flat central basin are identified on seismic profiles in Lake Ledro. Lake sediments have been finely laminated in the basin since 9000 cal. yr BP and frequently interrupted by two types of sedimentary events (SEs): light-coloured massive layers and dark-coloured graded beds. Optical analysis (quantitative organic petrography) of the organic matter present in soil, riverbed and lacustrine samples together with lake sediment bulk density and grain-size analysis illustrate that light-coloured layers consist of a mixture of lacustrine sediments and mainly contain algal particles similar to the ones observed in background sediments. Light-coloured layers thicker than 1.5 cm in the main basin of Lake Ledro are synchronous to numerous coeval mass-wasting deposits remoulding the slopes of the basin. They are interpreted as subaquatic mass-movements triggered by historical and pre-historical regional earthquakes dated to AD 2005, AD 1891, AD 1045 and 1260, 2545, 2595, 3350, 3815, 4740, 7190, 9185 and 11 495 cal. yr BP. Dark-coloured SEs develop high-amplitude reflections in front of the deltas and in the deep central basin. These beds are mainly made of terrestrial organic matter (soils and lignocellulosic debris) and are interpreted as resulting from intense hyperpycnal flood event. Mapping and quantifying the amount of soil material accumulated in the Holocene hyperpycnal flood deposits of the sequence allow estimating that the equivalent soil thickness eroded over the catchment area reached up to 5 mm during the largest Holocene flood events. Such significant soil erosion is interpreted as resulting from the combination of heavy rainfall and snowmelt. The recurrence of

Systematic study of magnetar outbursts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coti Zelati, Francesco; Rea, Nanda; Pons, José A.; Campana, Sergio; Esposito, Paolo

2018-02-01

We present the results of the systematic study of all magnetar outbursts observed to date, through a reanalysis of data acquired in about 1100 X-ray observations. We track the temporal evolution of the outbursts' soft X-ray spectral properties and the luminosities of the single spectral components as well as of the total emission. We model empirically all outburst light curves, and estimate the characteristic decay time-scales as well as the energetics involved. We investigate the link between different parameters (e.g. the luminosity at the peak of the outburst and in quiescence, the maximum luminosity increase, the decay time-scale and energy of the outburst, the neutron star surface dipolar magnetic field and characteristic age, etc.), and unveil several correlations among these quantities. We discuss our results in the context of the internal crustal heating and twisted bundle models for magnetar outbursts. This study is complemented by the Magnetar Outburst Online Catalogue (http://magnetars.ice.csic.es), an interactive data base where the user can plot any combination of the parameters derived in this work, and download all data.

Extreme Flood Events Over the Past 300 Years Recorded in the Sediments of a Mountain Lake in the Altay Mountains, Northwestern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, J.; Zhou, J.; Shen, B.; Zeng, H.

2017-12-01

Global climate change has the potential to accelerate the hydrological cycle, which may further enhance the temporal frequency of regional extreme floods. Climatic models predict that intra-annual rainfall variability will intensify, which will shift current rainfall regimes towards more extreme systems with lower precipitation frequencies, longer dry periods, and larger individual precipitation events worldwide. Understanding the temporal variations of extreme floods that occur in response to climate change is essential to anticipate the trends in flood magnitude and frequency in the context of global warming. However, currently available instrumental data are not long enough for capturing the most extreme events, thus the acquisition of long duration datasets for historical floods that extend beyond available instrumental records is clearly an important step in discerning trends in flood frequency and magnitude with respect to climate change. In this study, a reconstruction of paleofloods over the past 300 years was conducted through an analysis of grain sizes from the sediments of Kanas Lake in the Altay Mountains of northwestern China. Grain parameters and frequency distributions both demonstrate that two abrupt environment changes exist within the lake sedimentary sequence. Based on canonical discriminant analysis (CDA) and C-M pattern analysis, two flood events corresponding to ca. 1760 AD and ca. 1890 AD were identified, both of which occurred during warmer and wetter climate conditions according to tree-ring records. These two flood events are also evidenced by lake sedimentary records in the Altay and Tianshan areas. Furthermore, through a comparison with other records, the flood event in ca. 1760 AD seems to have occurred in both the arid central Asia and the Alps in Europe, and thus may have been associated with changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index.

Integrated satellite InSAR and slope stability modeling to support hazard assessment at the Safuna Alta glacial lake, Peru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cochachin, Alejo; Frey, Holger; Huggel, Christian; Strozzi, Tazio; Büechi, Emanuel; Cui, Fanpeng; Flores, Andrés; Saito, Carlos

2017-04-01

The Safuna glacial lakes (77˚ 37' W, 08˚ 50' S) are located in the headwater of the Tayapampa catchment, in the northernmost part of the Cordillera Blanca, Peru. The upper lake, Laguna Safuna Alta at 4354 m asl has formed in the 1960s behind a terminal moraine of the retreating Pucajirca Glacier, named after the peak south of the lakes. Safuna Alta currently has a volume of 15 x 106 m3. In 2002 a rock fall of several million m3 from the proximal left lateral moraine hit the Safuna Alta lake and triggered an impact wave which overtopped the moraine dam and passed into the lower lake, Laguna Safuna Baja, which absorbed most of the outburst flood from the upper lake, but nevertheless causing loss in cattle, degradation of agricultural land downstream and damages to a hydroelectric power station in Quitaracsa gorge. Event reconstructions showed that the impact wave in the Safuna Alta lake had a runup height of 100 m or more, and weakened the moraine dam of Safuna Alta. This fact, in combination with the large lake volumes and the continued possibility for landslides from the left proximal moraine pose a considerable risk for the downstream settlements as well as the recently completed Quitaracsa hydroelectric power plant. In the framework of a project funded by the European Space Agency (ESA), the hazard situation at the Safuna Alta lake is assessed by a combination of satellite radar data analysis, field investigations, and slope stability modeling. Interferometric analyses of the Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) of ALOS-1 Palsar-1, ALOS-2 Palsar-2 and Sentinel-1 data from 2016 reveal terrain displacements of 2 cm y-1 in the detachment zone of the 2002 rock avalanche. More detailed insights into the characteristics of these terrain deformations are gained by repeat surveys with differential GPS (DGPS) and tachymetric measurements. A drone flight provides the information for the generation of a high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM), which is used for the

Process-based model with flood control measures towards more realistic global flood modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Q.; Zhang, X.; Wang, Y.; Mu, M.; Lv, A.; Li, Z.

2017-12-01

In the profoundly human-influenced era, the Anthropocene, increased amount of land was developed in flood plains and many flood control measures were implemented to protect people and infrastructures placed in the flood-prone areas. These human influences (for example, dams and dykes) have altered peak streamflow and flood risk, and are already an integral part of flood. However, most of the process-based flood models have yet to taken into account the human influences. In this study, we used a hydrological model together with an advanced hydrodynamic model to assess flood risk at the Baiyangdian catchment. The Baiyangdian Lake is the largest shallow freshwater lake in North China, and it was used as a flood storage area in the past. A new development hub for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei economic triangle, namely the Xiongan new area, was recently established in the flood-prone area around the lake. The shuttle radar topography mission (SRTM) digital elevation model (DEMs) was used to parameterize the hydrodynamic model simulation, and the inundation estimates were compared with published flood maps and observed inundation area during the extreme historical flood events. A simple scheme was carried out to consider the impacts of flood control measures, including the reservoirs in the headwaters and the dykes to be built. By comparing model simulations with and without the influences of flood control measures, we demonstrated the importance of human influences in altering the inundated area and depth under design flood conditions. Based on the SRTM DEM and dam and reservoir data in the Global Reservoir and Dam (GRanD) database, we further discuss the potential to develop a global flood model with human influences.

Glacial lake expansion in the central Himalayas by Landsat images, 1990-2010.

PubMed

Nie, Yong; Liu, Qiao; Liu, Shiyin

2013-01-01

Glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) is a serious hazard in high, mountainous regions. In the Himalayas, catastrophic risks of GLOFs have increased in recent years because most Himalayan glaciers have experienced remarkable downwasting under a warming climate. However, current knowledge about the distribution and recent changes in glacial lakes within the central Himalaya mountain range is still limited. Here, we conducted a systematic investigation of the glacial lakes within the entire central Himalaya range by using an object-oriented image processing method based on the Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) or Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM) images from 1990 to 2010. We extracted the lake boundaries for four time points (1990, 2000, 2005 and 2010) and used a time series inspection method combined with a consistent spatial resolution of Landsat images that consistently revealed lake expansion. Our results show that the glacial lakes expanded rapidly by 17.11% from 1990 to 2010. The pre-existing, larger glacial lakes, rather than the newly formed lakes, contributed most to the areal expansion. The greatest expansions occurred at the altitudinal zones between 4800 m and 5600 m at the north side of the main Himalayan range and between 4500 m and 5600 m at the south side, respectively. Based on the expansion rate, area and type of glacial lakes, we identified 67 rapidly expanding glacial lakes in the central Himalayan region that need to be closely monitored in the future. The warming and increasing amounts of light-absorbing constituents of snow and ice could have accelerated the melting that directly affected the glacial lake expansion. Across the main central Himalayas, glacial lakes at the north side show more remarkable expansion than those at the south side. An effective monitoring and warning system for critical glacial lakes is urgently needed.

Glacial Lake Expansion in the Central Himalayas By Landsat Images, 1990-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nie, Y.; Liu, Q.; Liu, S.

2014-12-01

Glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) is a serious hazard in high, mountainous regions. In the Himalayas, catastrophic risks of GLOFs have increased in recent years because most Himalayan glaciers have experienced remarkable downwasting under a warming climate. However, current knowledge about the distribution and recent changes in glacial lakes within the central Himalaya mountain range is still limited. Here, we conducted a systematic investigation of the glacial lakes within the entire central Himalaya range by using an object-oriented image processing method based on the Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) or Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM) images from 1990 to 2010. We extracted the lake boundaries for four time points (1990, 2000, 2005 and 2010) and used a time series inspection method combined with a consistent spatial resolution of Landsat images that consistently revealed lake expansion. Our results show that the glacial lakes expanded rapidly by 17.11% from 1990 to 2010. The pre-existing, larger glacial lakes, rather than the newly formed lakes, contributed most to the areal expansion. The greatest expansions occurred at the altitudinal zones between 4800 m and 5600 m at the north side of the main Himalayan range and between 4500 m and 5600 m at the south side, respectively. Based on the expansion rate, area and type of glacial lakes, we identified 67 rapidly expanding glacial lakes in the central Himalayan region that need to be closely monitored in the future. The warming and increasing amounts of light-absorbing constituents of snow and ice could have accelerated the melting that directly affected the glacial lake expansion. Across the main central Himalayas, glacial lakes at the north side show more remarkable expansion than those at the south side. An effective monitoring and warning system for critical glacial lakes is urgently needed.

Outbursts in Symbiotic Binaries

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sonneborn, George (Technical Monitor); Keyes, Charles

2005-01-01

A major question for symbiotic stars concerns the nature and cause of their outbursts. A small subset of symbiotics, the slow novae are fairly well established as thermonuclear events that last on the order of decades. The several symbiotic recurrent novae, which are much shorter and last on the order of months, are also thought to be thermonuclear runaways. Yet the majority of symbiotics are neither slow novae nor recurrent novae. These are the so-called classical symbiotics, many of which show outbursts whose cause is not well understood. In some cases, jets are produced in association with an outburst, therefore an investigation into the causes of outbursts will yield important insights into the production of collimated outflows. To investigate the cause and nature of classical symbiotic outbursts, we initiated a program of multiwavelength observations of these events. In FUSE Cycle 2, we obtained six observational epochs of the 2000-2002 classic symbiotic outburst in the first target of our campaign - class prototype, Z Andromedae. That program was part of a coordinated multi-wavelength Target-of-Opportunity (TOO) campaign with FUSE, XMM, Chandra, MERLIN, the VLA, and ground-based spectroscopic and high time-resolution photometric observations. Our campaign proved the concept, utility, and need for coordinated multi-wavelength observations in order to make progress in understanding the nature of the outburst mechanisms in symbiotic stars. Indeed, the FUSE data were the cornerstone of this project

76 FR 43965 - Proposed Flood Elevation Determinations; Correction

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-07-22

... FR 70944. The table provided here represents the flooding sources, location of referenced elevations... Areas. Specifically, it addresses the flooding sources Cumberland River (Lake Barkley) and Tennessee... County, Kentucky, and Incorporated Areas'' addressed the flooding sources Cumberland River (Lake Barkley...

Natural regeneration and growth of Taxodium distichum (L.) rich. In Lake Chicot, Louisiana after 44 years of flooding

USGS Publications Warehouse

Keeland, B.D.; Conner, W.H.

1999-01-01

Lake Chicot, in south central Louisiana, USA, was created in 1943 by the impoundment of Chicot Bayou. Extensive establishment of woody seedling occurred in the lake during a 1.5 year period, including the growing seasons of both 1986 and 1987, when the reservoir was drained for repair work on the dam. Study plots were established in September 1986 to document woody vegetation establishment and to provide a baseline by which to monitor survival and growth after flooding resumed. Taxodium distichum seedlings were the dominant species after one growing season, with a maximum density of 50 seedlings/m2, an average of about 2/m2, and an average height of 75 cm. The lake was reflooded at the end of 1987, bringing water depths at the study plots up to about 1.4 m. Temporary drawdowns were again conducted during the fall of 1992 and 1996. In December 1992, the site was revisited, new plots established, and saplings counted and measured. There was an average of 2.1 T. distichum stems/m2, and the average height was 315 cm. After the 1996 growing season, there was still an average of about 1.9 stems/m2, and the average height had increased to 476 cm. Preservation of T. distichum forests in relatively shallow but continuously flooded areas such as Lake Chicot may be a simple matter of draining the lake after a good seed crop and maintaining the drawdown long enough for the seedlings to grow taller than the typical growing season water level. In the case of Lake Chicot, this period was two growing seasons. This action will mimic natural, drought-related drawdowns of the lake and will allow the seedlings to establish themselves and grow tall enough to survive normal lake water levels.

Reducing risks from hazardous glacier lakes in the Cordillera Blanca (Peru): Six decades of experience and perspectives for the future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Portocarrero, Cesar; Cochachin, Alejo; Frey, Holger; González, Cesar; Haeberli, Wilfried; Huggel, Christian

2016-04-01

Outbursts from glacier lakes at various spatial and temporal scales have had marked geomorphological effects in many mountain ranges. In many glacierized Andean mountain regions substrates of human settlements made out of flood and debris-flow deposits are testimonies of such events. Examples in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, are the towns of Caraz, Carhuaz or parts of Huaraz. Continued glacier shrinking since the end of the Little Ice Age caused the formation or enlargement of numerous lakes. The outburst of Laguna Palcacocha, destroying the centre of Huaraz and causing more than 1800 losses of life in December 1941, marked the beginning of systematic risk reduction work in Peru. Corresponding efforts included glacier and lake inventories, hazard assessments, definition of high-risk situations, and completion of engineering work for lake-level lowering in more than 30 cases. The latter comprises outlet reinforcements on morainic dams as well as artificial tunnels in bedrock thresholds. This work has been remarkably efficient as documented in the latest case of the Laguna Huallcacocha (Carhuaz-Ancash), where the earlier made installations withstood the erosive power of an impact wave from an ice avalanche in 2015. In the case of the Laguna 513, the impact wave and far-reaching flood caused by a rock/ice avalanche from Nevado Hualcán in April 2010 showed that the risk had been essentially reduced by the preventive lake-level lowering in the early 1990s but not to zero. Risk assessments, planning, construction and non-structural risk reduction efforts continue. Work is in progress to increase the safety of Laguna Palcacocha where extensive assessments and model calculations had been carried out. Risks related to rock/ice avalanches into lakes from steep icy slopes and related to de-buttressing processes as well as long-term permafrost degradation increases. Based on morphological indications and numerical modelling (GlabTop) an inventory of possible future lakes

Turbidites as proxy for past flood events: Testing this approach in a large clastic system (Lake Geneva, France/Switzerland)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kremer, Katrina; Girardclos, Stéphanie

2017-04-01

Turbidites recorded in lake sediments are often used to reconstruct the frequency of past flood and also seismological events. However, for such a reconstruction, the origin and causes of the recorded turbidites need to be clearly identified. In this study, we test if turbidites can be used as paleohydrological archive based on the the sedimentary record of Lake Geneva resulting from inputs by the Rhone and Dranse clastic river systems. Our approach is based on several methods combining high-resolution seismic reflection data with geophysical (magnetic susceptibility, grain size) and high-resolution XRF/XRD data measured on ca. 10-m-long sediment cores (dated by radiocarbon ages and 137Cs activity). This dataset allows distinguishing between the different sources (rivers or hemipelagic sediment) of the turbidites deposited in the deep basin of Lake Geneva. However, no clear distinction between the various trigger processes (mass failures or floods) could be made, thus flood deposits could not be clearly identified. From our results, we also conclude that the lack of turbidite deposits in the deep basin between the 15th and 18th century seems to be linked to a change in turbidite depocentre due to the Rhone River mouth shifting possibly triggered by human activity and not by any direct climate effect. This study demonstrates that a least two conditions are needed to perform an adequate paleohydrological interpretation based on turbidite records: (1) the holistic understanding of the basin sedimentary system and (2) the distinction of flood-induced turbidites from other types of turbidites (mass failures etc.).

Numerical modeling of sediment transport and its effect on algal biomass distribution in Lake Pontchartrain due to flood release from Bonnet Carré Spillway

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In order to protect the city of New Orleans from the Mississippi River flooding, the Bonnet Carré Spillway (BCS) was constructed from 1929 to 1936 to divert flood water from the river into Lake Pontchartrain and then into the Gulf of Mexico. During the BCS opening for flood release, large amount of ...

A cooling neutron star crust after recurrent outbursts: modelling the accretion outburst history of Aql X-1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ootes, Laura S.; Wijnands, Rudy; Page, Dany; Degenaar, Nathalie

2018-07-01

With our neutron star crust cooling code NSCOOL, we track the thermal evolution of the neutron star in Aql X-1 over the full accretion outburst history from 1996 until 2015. For the first time, we model many outbursts (23 outbursts were detected) collectively and in great detail. This allows us to investigate the influence of previous outbursts on the internal temperature evolution and to test different neutron star crust cooling scenarios. Aql X-1 is an ideal test source for this purpose, because it shows frequent, short outbursts and thermally dominated quiescence spectra. The source goes into outburst roughly once a year for a few months. Assuming that the quiescent Swift/X-Ray Telescope observations of Aql X-1 can be explained within the crust cooling scenario, we find three main conclusions. First, the data are well reproduced by our model if the envelope composition and shallow heating parameters are allowed to change between outbursts. This is not the case if both shallow heating parameters (strength and depth) are tied throughout all accretion episodes, supporting earlier results that the properties of the shallow heating mechanism are not constant between outbursts. Secondly, from our models, shallow heating could not be connected to one specific spectral state during outburst. Thirdly, and most importantly, we find that the neutron star in Aql X-1 does not have enough time between outbursts to cool down to crust-core equilibrium and that heating during one outburst influences the cooling curves of the next.

Glacial Lake Expansion in the Central Himalayas by Landsat Images, 1990–2010

PubMed Central

Nie, Yong; Liu, Qiao; Liu, Shiyin

2013-01-01

Glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) is a serious hazard in high, mountainous regions. In the Himalayas, catastrophic risks of GLOFs have increased in recent years because most Himalayan glaciers have experienced remarkable downwasting under a warming climate. However, current knowledge about the distribution and recent changes in glacial lakes within the central Himalaya mountain range is still limited. Here, we conducted a systematic investigation of the glacial lakes within the entire central Himalaya range by using an object-oriented image processing method based on the Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) or Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM) images from 1990 to 2010. We extracted the lake boundaries for four time points (1990, 2000, 2005 and 2010) and used a time series inspection method combined with a consistent spatial resolution of Landsat images that consistently revealed lake expansion. Our results show that the glacial lakes expanded rapidly by 17.11% from 1990 to 2010. The pre-existing, larger glacial lakes, rather than the newly formed lakes, contributed most to the areal expansion. The greatest expansions occurred at the altitudinal zones between 4800 m and 5600 m at the north side of the main Himalayan range and between 4500 m and 5600 m at the south side, respectively. Based on the expansion rate, area and type of glacial lakes, we identified 67 rapidly expanding glacial lakes in the central Himalayan region that need to be closely monitored in the future. The warming and increasing amounts of light-absorbing constituents of snow and ice could have accelerated the melting that directly affected the glacial lake expansion. Across the main central Himalayas, glacial lakes at the north side show more remarkable expansion than those at the south side. An effective monitoring and warning system for critical glacial lakes is urgently needed. PMID:24376778

Estimation of design floods in ungauged catchments using a regional index flood method. A case study of Lake Victoria Basin in Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nobert, Joel; Mugo, Margaret; Gadain, Hussein

Reliable estimation of flood magnitudes corresponding to required return periods, vital for structural design purposes, is impacted by lack of hydrological data in the study area of Lake Victoria Basin in Kenya. Use of regional information, derived from data at gauged sites and regionalized for use at any location within a homogenous region, would improve the reliability of the design flood estimation. Therefore, the regional index flood method has been applied. Based on data from 14 gauged sites, a delineation of the basin into two homogenous regions was achieved using elevation variation (90-m DEM), spatial annual rainfall pattern and Principal Component Analysis of seasonal rainfall patterns (from 94 rainfall stations). At site annual maximum series were modelled using the Log normal (LN) (3P), Log Logistic Distribution (LLG), Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and Log Pearson Type 3 (LP3) distributions. The parameters of the distributions were estimated using the method of probability weighted moments. Goodness of fit tests were applied and the GEV was identified as the most appropriate model for each site. Based on the GEV model, flood quantiles were estimated and regional frequency curves derived from the averaged at site growth curves. Using the least squares regression method, relationships were developed between the index flood, which is defined as the Mean Annual Flood (MAF) and catchment characteristics. The relationships indicated area, mean annual rainfall and altitude were the three significant variables that greatly influence the index flood. Thereafter, estimates of flood magnitudes in ungauged catchments within a homogenous region were estimated from the derived equations for index flood and quantiles from the regional curves. These estimates will improve flood risk estimation and to support water management and engineering decisions and actions.

Quantifying changes in flooding and habitats in the Tonle Sap Lake (Cambodia) caused by water infrastructure development and climate change in the Mekong Basin.

PubMed

Arias, Mauricio E; Cochrane, Thomas A; Piman, Thanapon; Kummu, Matti; Caruso, Brian S; Killeen, Timothy J

2012-12-15

The economic value of the Tonle Sap Lake Floodplain to Cambodia is arguably among the highest provided to a nation by a single ecosystem around the world. Nonetheless, the Mekong River Basin is changing rapidly due to accelerating water infrastructure development (hydropower, irrigation, flood control, and water supply) and climate change, bringing considerable modifications to the flood pulse of the Tonle Sap Lake in the foreseeable future. This paper presents research conducted to determine how the historical flooding regime, together with human action, influenced landscape patterns of habitats in the Tonle Sap Lake, and how these habitats might shift as a result of hydrological changes. Maps of water depth, annual flood duration, and flood frequency were created for recent historical hydrological conditions and for simulated future scenarios of water infrastructure development and climate change. Relationships were then established between the historical flood maps and land cover, and these were subsequently applied to assess potential changes to habitat cover in future decades. Five habitat groups were clearly distinguishable based on flood regime, physiognomic patterns, and human activity: (1) Open water, flooded for 12 months in an average hydrological year; (2) Gallery forest, with flood duration of 9 months annually; (3) Seasonally flooded habitats, flooded 5-8 months and dominated by shrublands and grasslands; (4) transitional habitats, flooded 1-5 months and dominated by abandoned agricultural fields, receding rice/floating rice, and lowland grasslands; and (5) Rainfed habitats, flooded up to 1 month and consisting mainly of wet season rice fields and village crops. It was found that water infrastructure development could increase the area of open water (+18 to +21%) and the area of rainfed habitats (+10 to +14%), while reducing the area covered with seasonally flooded habitats (-13 to -22%) and gallery forest (-75 to -83%). Habitat cover shifts as a

Taking climate change into estimation of long-term flood risks: A case of Devils Lake of North Dakota, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kharel, G.; Kirilenko, A.

2014-12-01

Terminal lakes are heavily impacted by regional changes in climate. Devils Lake (DL) is a terminal lake located in the northeastern North Dakota of the US. Since 1990, following a shift in regional precipitation pattern, DL has encountered a 10 m water level rise, with over 400% increase in surface area and 600% increase in water volume, costing over $1.5 billion in mitigation. Currently, the lake is <1.5 m from spillover level to the nearby Sheyenne River with potential negative consequences for downstream water quality and flooding. Recently, the artificial outlets have been constructed and operated to divert DL water to the Sheyenne River amid legal and political pressure. Outlet construction however did not take into consideration possible changes in local climate. We modeled the DL basin ( 9,800 km2) hydrology using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and estimated future water levels of DL for different outlet scenarios under three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) SRES scenarios (A1B, B1 & A2) for 2020s and 2050s. We evaluated model performance by comparing SWAT simulated daily streamflow outputs against the observed streamflow data recorded at 6 USGS water gauge locations within the basin. Future climate conditions in the region were estimated by combining historical weather data (1981-2010), 15 CMIP3 General Circulation Model projections from the IPCC data center, and stochastic downscaling methodology (LARS-WG). Our results indicate significant likelihood (7.3% ̶ 20.0%) of uncontrolled DL water overspill in the next few decades in the absence of outlets, with some members of GCM integration ensemble carrying over 85.0% and 95.0% overspill probability for 2020s and 2050s respectively. However, full-capacity outlets show radical reduction in overspill probability to partially mitigate the flooding problem by decreasing the average lake level by approximately 1.9 m and 1.5 m in 2020s and 2050s. Moreover, had there been outlet operation

Radio outbursts in extragalactic sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinzel, Wayne Morris

Three aspects of the flux density variability of extragalactic radio sources were examined: millimeter wavelength short timescale variability, the spectral evolution of outbursts, and whether the outbursts are periodically spaced. Observations of extragalactic radio sources were conducted using the Five College Radio Astronomy Observatory between January and June 1985 at 88.2 GHz and during June and July 1985 at 40.0 GHz. Many of the sources exhibited significant flux density variations during the observing span. In addition, the most rapid variations observed were comparable with those reported in previous works. Two sources, 0355+50 and OJ287, both exhibited outbursts whose rise and fall timescales were less than a month. An anomalous flux density dropout was observed in 3C446 and was interpreted as an occultation event. Data at five frequencies between 2.7 and 89.6 GHz from the Dent-Balonek monitoring program were used to investigate the spectral evolution of eight outbursts. Outburst profile fitting was used to deconvolve the individual outbursts from one another at each frequency. The fit profiles were used to generate multiple epoch spectra to investigate the evolution of the outbursts. A phase residual minimization method was used to examine four sources for periodic behavior.

Downscaling GLOF Hazards: An in-depth look at the Nepal Himalaya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rounce, D.; McKinney, D. C.; Lala, J.

2016-12-01

The Nepal Himalaya house a large number of glacial lakes that pose a flood hazard to downstream communities and infrastructure. The modeling of the entire process chain of these glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) has been advancing rapidly in recent years. The most common cause of failure is mass movement entering the glacial lake, which triggers a tsunami-like wave that breaches the terminal moraine and causes the ensuing downstream flood. Unfortunately, modeling the avalanche, the breach of the moraine, and the downstream flood requires a large amount of site-specific information and can be very labor-intensive. Therefore, these detailed models need to be paired with large-scale hazard assessments that identify the glacial lakes that are the biggest threat and the triggering events that threaten these lakes. This study discusses the merger of a large-scale, remotely-based hazard assessment with more detailed GLOF models to show how GLOF hazard modeling can be downscaled in the Nepal Himalaya.

EX Hydrae in outburst

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hellier, C.; Mason, K. O.; Smale, A. P.; Corbet, R. H. D.; O'Donoghue, D.

1989-01-01

Photometry and red spectroscopy of the intermediate polar EX Hya in its rare outburst state are presented. Photometry during the declining phase of the July-August 1986 outburst shows the 67-min (spin) modulation to be present with similar characteristics to that in quiescence. In contrast, photometry from near the peak of the 1987 May outburst shows little evidence of the 67-min modulation, while spectroscopy obtained nearly simultaneously is similarly lacking in such evidence, despite its presence in quiescent spectroscopic data. Near the beginning of the May 1987 outburst the H alpha emission line develops a broad, high velocity base component whose velocity is modulated with the orbital cycle. The velocity and phase of the broad base component suggest that it is produced near the magnetosphere of the white dwarf at a point along the projected trajectory of the gas stream from the companion. The feature disappears later in the outburst and is not present during quiescence. It is suggested that the outbursts in EX Hya are caused by an increase in the rate of mass transfer from the companion, and that part of this enhanced mass-transfer stream skims over the top of the accretion disk to strike the magnetosphere directly. The interaction of the stream with the magnetosphere gives rise to the broad-base component observed.

Emerging Glacial Lakes in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru: A Case Study at Arteson Glacier

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chisolm, R. E.; Mckinney, D. C.; Gomez, J.; Voss, K.

2012-12-01

Tropical glaciers are an essential component of the water resources systems in the mountainous regions where they are located, and a warming climate has resulted in the accelerated retreat of Andean glaciers in recent decades. The shrinkage of Andean glaciers influences the flood risk for communities living downstream as new glacial lakes have begun to form at the termini of some glaciers. As these lakes continue to grow in area and volume, they pose an increasing risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). Ice thickness measurements have been a key missing link in studying the tropical glaciers in Peru and how climate change is likely to impact glacial melt and the growth of glacial lakes. Ground penetrating radar (GPR) has rarely been applied to glaciers in Peru to measure ice thickness, and these measurements can tell us a lot about how a warming climate will affect glacier mass balance. This study presents GPR data taken in July 2012 at the Arteson glacier in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru. A new lake has begun to form at the terminus of the Arteson glacier, and this lake has key features, including overhanging ice and loose rock likely to create landslides, that could trigger a catastrophic GLOF if the lake continues to grow. This new lake is part of a series of three lakes that have formed below the Arteson glacier. The two lower lakes, Artesonraju and Paron, are much larger so that if there were an avalanche or landslide into the new lake below Arteson glacier, the impact could potentially be more catastrophic than a GLOF from one single lake. Estimates of how the lake mass balance is likely to evolve due to the retreating glacier are key to assessing the flood risk from this dynamic three-lake system. Because the glacier mass balance and lake mass balance are closely linked, the ice thickness measurements and measurements of the bed slope of the Arteson glacier and underlying bedrock give us a clue to how the lake is likely to evolve. GPR measurements of

Hubbard Glacier, Alaska: growing and advancing in spite of global climate change and the 1986 and 2002 Russell Lake outburst floods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Trabant, Dennis C.; March, Rod S.; Thomas, Donald S.

2003-01-01

Hubbard Glacier, the largest calving glacier on the North American Continent (25 percent larger than Rhode Island), advanced across the entrance to 35-mile-long Russell Fiord during June 2002, temporarily turning it into a lake. Hubbard Glacier has been advancing for more than 100 years and has twice closed the entrance to Russell Fiord during the last 16 years by squeezing and pushing submarine glacial sediments across the mouth of the fiord. Water flowing into the cutoff fiord from mountain streams and glacier melt causes the level of Russell Lake to rise. However, both the 1986 and 2002 dams failed before the lake altitude rose enough for water to spill over a low pass at the far end of the fiord and enter the Situk River drainage, a world-class sport and commercial fishery near Yakutat, Alaska.

Megafloods and Clovis cache at Wenatchee, Washington

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waitt, Richard B.

2016-05-01

Immense late Wisconsin floods from glacial Lake Missoula drowned the Wenatchee reach of Washington's Columbia valley by different routes. The earliest debacles, nearly 19,000 cal yr BP, raged 335 m deep down the Columbia and built high Pangborn bar at Wenatchee. As advancing ice blocked the northwest of Columbia valley, several giant floods descended Moses Coulee and backflooded up the Columbia past Wenatchee. Ice then blocked Moses Coulee, and Grand Coulee to Quincy basin became the westmost floodway. From Quincy basin many Missoula floods backflowed 50 km upvalley to Wenatchee 18,000 to 15,500 years ago. Receding ice dammed glacial Lake Columbia centuries more-till it burst about 15,000 years ago. After Glacier Peak ashfall about 13,600 years ago, smaller great flood(s) swept down the Columbia from glacial Lake Kootenay in British Columbia. The East Wenatchee cache of huge fluted Clovis points had been laid atop Pangborn bar after the Glacier Peak ashfall, then buried by loess. Clovis people came five and a half millennia after the early gigantic Missoula floods, two and a half millennia after the last small Missoula flood, and two millennia after the glacial Lake Columbia flood. People likely saw outburst flood(s) from glacial Lake Kootenay.

Megafloods and Clovis cache at Wenatchee, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waitt, Richard B.

2016-01-01

Immense late Wisconsin floods from glacial Lake Missoula drowned the Wenatchee reach of Washington's Columbia valley by different routes. The earliest debacles, nearly 19,000 cal yr BP, raged 335 m deep down the Columbia and built high Pangborn bar at Wenatchee. As advancing ice blocked the northwest of Columbia valley, several giant floods descended Moses Coulee and backflooded up the Columbia past Wenatchee. Ice then blocked Moses Coulee, and Grand Coulee to Quincy basin became the westmost floodway. From Quincy basin many Missoula floods backflowed 50 km upvalley to Wenatchee 18,000 to 15,500 years ago. Receding ice dammed glacial Lake Columbia centuries more—till it burst about 15,000 years ago. After Glacier Peak ashfall about 13,600 years ago, smaller great flood(s) swept down the Columbia from glacial Lake Kootenay in British Columbia. The East Wenatchee cache of huge fluted Clovis points had been laid atop Pangborn bar after the Glacier Peak ashfall, then buried by loess. Clovis people came five and a half millennia after the early gigantic Missoula floods, two and a half millennia after the last small Missoula flood, and two millennia after the glacial Lake Columbia flood. People likely saw outburst flood(s) from glacial Lake Kootenay.

Monitoring the dynamics of glacial lakes in the High Mountain Asia region through time series Landsat images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, M.; Chen, F.

2017-12-01

Glacial lakes have been developing dramatically in the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region associated with human activities and persistent climatic warming. This leads to increased probability of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF), pose potential threats to the downstream lives and properties of people. However, comprehensive information is lacking about the annual distribution, evolution and the driving mechanism of glacial lakes in the entire HMA due to the low accessibility and harsh natural conditions, with most studies focused either on certain portion of this region or at most several time intervals effort at monitoring glacial lakes at coarse resolution remote sensing. In this research, we produce yearly map of glacial lake extents in HMA from 2008 to 2016 using Landsat series satellites images, and further study the formation, distribution and dynamics of glacial lakes. In total 6197 and 8256 glacial lakes were detected in 2008 and 2016, respectively, mainly located at altitudes between 4400 m and 5600 m. The annual expansion rate is approximately 4.68 % from 2008 to 2016. To explore the cause of rapid expansion for some typical glacial lakes, we investigated their changing patterns through long-term expansion rates measured from change in shoreline positions. The results show that glacial lake expansion rates at some points change substantially (> 30 m/yr) and the formation of proglacial lakes may be dominated by different orientation-driving forces from parent glacier. The accelerating rate of ice and snow melting from glacier caused by global warming are primary contributor to glacial lake growth. The results may provide information for understanding the mechanism of lake dynamics, which also facilitate the scientific recognition of the potential glacial lakes hazards in this region.

Use of multi-criteria decision analysis to identify potentially dangerous glacial lakes.

PubMed

Kougkoulos, Ioannis; Cook, Simon J; Jomelli, Vincent; Clarke, Leon; Symeonakis, Elias; Dortch, Jason M; Edwards, Laura A; Merad, Myriam

2018-04-15

Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) represent a significant threat in deglaciating environments, necessitating the development of GLOF hazard and risk assessment procedures. Here, we outline a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) approach that can be used to rapidly identify potentially dangerous lakes in regions without existing tailored GLOF risk assessments, where a range of glacial lake types exist, and where field data are sparse or non-existent. Our MCDA model (1) is desk-based and uses freely and widely available data inputs and software, and (2) allows the relative risk posed by a range of glacial lake types to be assessed simultaneously within any region. A review of the factors that influence GLOF risk, combined with the strict rules of criteria selection inherent to MCDA, has allowed us to identify 13 exhaustive, non-redundant, and consistent risk criteria. We use our MCDA model to assess the risk of 16 extant glacial lakes and 6 lakes that have already generated GLOFs, and found that our results agree well with previous studies. For the first time in GLOF risk assessment, we employed sensitivity analyses to test the strength of our model results and assumptions, and to identify lakes that are sensitive to the criteria and risk thresholds used. A key benefit of the MCDA method is that sensitivity analyses are readily undertaken. Overall, these sensitivity analyses lend support to our model, although we suggest that further work is required to determine the relative importance of assessment criteria, and the thresholds that determine the level of risk for each criterion. As a case study, the tested method was then applied to 25 potentially dangerous lakes in the Bolivian Andes, where GLOF risk is poorly understood; 3 lakes are found to pose 'medium' or 'high' risk, and require further detailed investigation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Paleofloods records in Himalaya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srivastava, P.; Kumar, A.; Chaudhary, S.; Meena, N.; Sundriyal, Y. P.; Rawat, S.; Rana, N.; Perumal, R. J.; Bisht, P.; Sharma, D.; Agnihotri, R.; Bagri, D. S.; Juyal, N.; Wasson, R. J.; Ziegler, A. D.

2017-05-01

We use paleoflood deposits to reconstruct a record of past floods for the Alaknanda-Mandakini Rivers (Garhwal Himalaya), the Indus River (Ladakh, NW Himalaya) and the Brahmaputra River (NE Himalaya). The deposits are characterized by sand-silt couplets, massive sand beds, and from debris flow sediment. The chronology of paleoflood deposits, established by Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) and 14C AMS dating techniques, indicates the following: (i) The Alaknanda-Mandakini Rivers experienced large floods during the wet and warm Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA); (ii) the Indus River experienced at least 14 large floods during the Holocene climatic optimum, when flood discharges were likely an order of magnitude higher than those of modern floods; and (iii) the Brahmaputra River experienced a megaflood between 8 and 6 ka. Magnetic susceptibility of flood sediments indicates that 10 out of 14 floods on the Indus River originated in the catchments draining the Ladakh Batholith, indicating the potential role of glacial lake outbursts (GLOFs) and/or landslide lake outbursts (LLOFs) in compounding flood magnitudes. Pollen recovered from debris flow deposits located in the headwaters of the Mandakini River showed the presence of warmth-loving trees and marshy taxa, thereby corroborating the finding that floods occurred during relatively warm periods. Collectively, our new data indicate that floods in the Himalaya largely occur during warm and wet climatic phases. Further, the evidence supports the notion that the Indian Summer Monsoon front may have penetrated into the Ladakh area during the Holocene climatic optimum.

Hypsometry and the distribution of high-alpine lakes in the European Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prasicek, Günther; Otto, Jan-Christoph; Buckel, Johannes; Keuschnig, Markus

2017-04-01

Climate change strongly affects alpine landscapes. Cold-climate processes shape the terrain in a typical way and ice-free overdeepenings in cirques and glacial valleys as well as different types of moraines favor the formation of lakes. These water bodies act as sediment sinks and high-alpine water storage but may also favor outburst and flooding events. Glacier retreat worldwide is associated with an increasing number and size of high-alpine lakes which implies a concurrent expansion of sediment retention and natural hazard potential. Rising temperatures are regarded to be the major cause for this development, but other factors such as the distribution of area over elevation and glacier erosional and depositional dynamics may play an important role as well. While models of ice flow and glacial erosion are employed to understand the impact of glaciers on mountain landscapes, comprehensive datasets and analyses on the distribution of existing high-alpine lakes are lacking. In this study we present an exhaustive database of natural lakes in the European Alps and analyze lake distribution with respect to hypsometry. We find that the distribution of lake number and lake area over elevation only weakly coincides with hypsometry. Unsurprisingly, largest lakes are often tectonically influenced and located at the fringe of the mountain range and in prominent inter-montane basins. With increasing elevation, however, the number of lakes, lake area and total area decrease until a local minimum is reached around the equilibrium line latitude (ELA) of the last glacial maximum (LGM). Above the LGM ELA, total area further decreases, but lake number and area increase again. A local maximum in lake area coincides with an absolute maximum in lake number between the ELAs of the LGM and the little ice age around 2500 m. We conclude that glacial erosional and depositional dynamics control the distribution and size of high-alpine lakes and thus demand for exceptional attention when

Outburst activity of the symbiotic binary AG Dra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gális, R.; Merc, J.; Leedjärv, L.

2017-04-01

AG Dra regularly undergoes quiescent and active stages which consist of a series of individual outbursts repeating at about a one-year interval. After seven years of flat quiescence following the 2006-08 major outbursts, in the late spring of 2015, AG Dra begun rising again in brightness toward what appeared to be a new minor outburst. The recent outburst activity of AG Dra was definitely confirmed by a more prominent outburst in April 2016. The photometric and spectroscopic observations suggest that these outbursts are of the hot type. Such behaviour is quite unusual, because the major outbursts in the beginning of active stages are usually cool. Can we expect the major cool or minor hot outburst during the spring of 2017? AG Dra demonstrates the importance of long-term monitoring of symbiotic stars in order to disentangle the nature and mechanisms of their active stages and outbursts.

Effects of herbivory and flooding on reforestation of baldcypress (Taxodium distichum [L.]) saplings planted in Caddo Lake, Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Keeland, Bobby D.; Dale, Rassa O.; Darville, Roy; McCoy, John W.

2011-01-01

The effects of herbivory and flooding were examined on survival and growth of planted baldcypress (Taxodium distichum (L.) Rich.) saplings at three sites in Caddo Lake, TX, over a 4-yr period. There were two flood regimes (shallow periodic and deep continuous), where half of the saplings in each flood regime were protected by tree shelters to prevent herbivory. By the end of the first year, over 80% of saplings survived with half of saplings classified as healthy. By the end of the fourth year, only half of the saplings were alive and one-third were healthy. At all three sites, the combination of no protection and continuous flooding resulted in a significant number of missing saplings. Likewise, most unprotected saplings in periodic flooding were missing by the end of the study. Saplings clipped by herbivores showed about 50% chance of recovery, but many of the sprouts were of poor quality. Protected saplings in tree shelters achieved significantly greater survival and height growth.

Environmental Assessment Lake Traverse Master Plan for Public-Use Development and Resource Management Lake Traverse Minnesota - South Dakota.

DTIC Science & Technology

1978-09-01

classified as wet meadow. k. Tame Grassland Community (limited) - This community is of minor extent and importance in the vicinity of Lake Traverse...purposes of flood control and water conservation, the Lake Traverse-lois de Sioux flood control project began operation in 1941. It con- sists of two...reservoir pools--Lake Traverse and Mud Lake--plus 24 miles of channel improvement. Several consepts are recoiended for future development of the

Comet 29P/SW1 outburst

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trigo-Rodriguez, Josep M.

2008-10-01

The present outburst experienced by this Centaur (#IAUC 8978) is the brightest detected since September 2004 [for more details see Trigo-Rodriguez et al. (2008) A&A485, pp. 599-606]. In the previously reported work the outburst frequency was established in 7.3 outbursts/year, typically reaching a +13 maximum magnitude or less.

Measuring Cooling Curves Following Magnetar Outbursts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaspi, Victoria

2012-09-01

Magnetars have been observed to increase their flux output by several orders of magnitude in outbursts. Following outbursts they cool on timescales of months to years. We propose to observe two magnetars, Swift J1822.3-1606 and 1E 1547.0-5408, using Chandra as they approach their quiescent state following their recent outbursts in 2011 and 2009, respectively. We will apply a newly developed crustal cooling model to these cooling curves to constrain the properties of the magnetars, such as the crust thickness and heat capacity, and of their outbursts, such as the location of energy deposition.

FU Orionis Outbursts and the Solar Nebula

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bell, Robbins; Young, Rich (Technical Monitor)

1998-01-01

Protostellar systems are variable on many timescales. The FU Orionis outburst is one of the most drastic forms of variability known to occur in low mass stellar systems. During a typical outburst lasting several decades, system luminosities may be a hundred times what is normal of the quiescent state. FU Orionis outburst events are believed to have significant impacts on the thermal structure of the protosolar nebula. Their existence has been utilized to explain features in the meteoritic record from thermally induced homogenization to chondrule formation. Recent numerical models have shown the viability of the hypothesis that the radiation observed during outburst is emitted by a luminous circumstellar disk transporting mass at a thousand times the quiescent rate. We will begin by describing what is known about the FU Orionis outburst phenomenon from recent observations and theory. We will discuss evidence that suggests that outburst radiation is emitted by a circumstellar disk rather than by the star and will briefly describe the thermal instability as a mechanism for outburst. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Midwest Flood of 2008: Lake Michigan Basin-Wide Summer Plankton Bloom is not due to Nutrient Injection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cuhel, R. L.; Aguilar, C.; Balch, B.

2008-12-01

Major Midwestern US flooding occurred in June of 2008 following over 30cm of rainfall in a 4-day period. Tributaries to Lake Michigan swelled, with outflow from the Milwaukee River increasing 30-fold from long-term means of 8.5 m3/s to over 250 m3/s. Flood stage was sustained for 8 days and dampened over a protracted 30-day period. A series of inshore, transect, and mid-lake cruises established the presence of unseasonally strong gradients in surface phytoplankton biomass moving progressively offshore, to ultimately influence at least half of the 150 km-wide Lake Michigan basin. Remote sensing of chlorophyll (chl) and the diffuse attenuation coefficient (at 490nm) documented the existence of blooms offshore of each major river on both sides of the lake persisting into mid-July, and then disappearing from surface waters, not visible to space-based satellite sensors. Profiles detailed deep chlorophyll maxima that were distinct from previous years. Surface transects in 2007 yielded typical summer chl of <0.5μg/L, with little deviation over the mid-lake seamounts. In July 2008, surface chl over deep water reached concentrations as high as 1.7μg/L, with distinct depletions (25%) over the quagga mussel-infested shallower reef zone. Offshore transects displayed high chl in the upper 5m only a few days after the onset of high flow. Unseasonably high phytoplankton population densities progressed with time and distance offshore in a manner suggestive of advection of a surface lens across the well-stratified lake. As the lens progressed offshore, populations continued to grow, appearing as a band of high chl extending across the lake. After 2 weeks, inshore areas had substantially lower surface biomass than those offshore, reflecting settling of denser cells during a long period of relatively calm weather. Development of deep chlorophyll maxima (DCM) at 25-40m followed the decrease of surface populations at all locations deeper than 50m. High satellite- derived diffuse

Eclipse Mapping Experiments in Dwarf Novae Outbursts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borges, B. W.; Baptista, R.

2006-06-01

In this work, we report the eclipse mapping analysis of CCD photometric data of two short period dwarf novae - V4140 Sgr (Borges & Baptista 2005) and HT Cas (Borges, Baptista & Catalán, in preparation) - during observed outburst events. The analysis of the observations of V4140 Sgr, done between 1991 and 2001, reveals that the object was in the decline from an outburst in 1992 and again in outburst in 2001. A distance of d = 170+/-30 pc is obtained from a method similar to that used to constrain the distance to open clusters. From this distance, disc radial brightness temperature distributions are determined, and the disc temperatures remain below the critical effective temperature T_{crit} at all disc radii during the outburst. The distributions in quiescence and in outburst are significantly different from those of other dwarf novae of similar orbital period. These results cannot be explained within the framework of the disc instability model and the small amplitude outbursts of V4140 Sgr can be due bursts of enhanced mass transfer rate from the secondary star. Our HT Cas data consist of V and R CCD photometric observations done in 2005 November with the 0.95-m James Gregory Telescope (JGT) and cover a outburst cycle. We used the entropy associated to the eclipse maps to obtain the semi-opening disc angle α evolution throught the outburst. The obtained angles are systematically lower than those obtained by Ioannou et al. (1999) and we can conclude that the outburst radial profiles must be flatter than the the T ∝ r^{-3/4} law of steady state dics, against the expectations of the disc instability model. Our intensity radial distributions presents the same ``outside-in'' outburst behavior as obtained by the referred author.

Numerical modeling of flow and sediment transport in Lake Pontchartrain due to flood release from Bonnet Carré Spillway

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In this study, the flow fields and sediment transport in Lake Pontchartrain during a flood release from Bonnet Carré Spillway (BCS) was simulated using the computational model CCHE2D developed at the National Center for Computational Hydroscience and Engineering (NCCHE), the University of Mississipp...

Glof Study in Tawang River Basin, Arunachal Pradesh, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panda, R.; Padhee, S. K.; Dutta, S.

2014-11-01

Glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) is one of the major unexpected hazards in the high mountain regions susceptible to climate change. The Tawang river basin in Arunachal Pradesh is an unexplored region in the Eastern Himalayas, which is impending to produce several upcoming hydro-electric projects (HEP). The main source of the river system is the snow melt in the Eastern Himalayas, which is composed of several lakes located at the snout of the glacier dammed by the lateral or end moraine. These lakes might prove as potential threat to the future scenario as they have a tendency to produce flash flood with large quantity of sediment load during outbursts. This study provides a methodology to detect the potential lakes as a danger to the HEP sites in the basin, followed by quantification of volume of discharge from the potential lake and prediction of hydrograph at the lake site. The remote location of present lakes induced the use of remote sensing data, which was fulfilled by Landsat-8 satellite imagery with least cloud coverage. Suitable reflectance bands on the basis of spectral responses were used to produce informational layers (NDWI, Potential snow cover map, supervised classification map) in GIS environment for discriminating different land features. The product obtained from vector overlay operation of these layers; representing possible water area, was further utilized in combination with Google earth to identify the lakes within the watershed. Finally those identified lakes were detected as potentially dangerous lakes based on the criteria of elevation, area, proximity from streamline, slope and volume of water held. HEC-RAS simulation model was used with cross sections from Google Earth and field survey as input to simulate dam break like situation; hydrodynamic channel routing of the outburst hydrograph along river reach was carried out to get the GLOF hydrograph at the project sites. It was concluded from the results that, the assessed GLOF would be a

Lake Level Variation in Small Lakes: Not a Clear Picture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Starratt, S.

2017-12-01

Lake level is a useful tool for identifying regional changes in precipitation and evaporation. Due to the volume of water in large lakes, they may only record large-scale changes in water balance, while smaller lakes may record more subtle variations. However, the record of water level in small lakes is affected by a number of factors including elevation, bathymetry, nutrient load, and aquatic macrophyte abundance. The latest Quaternary diatom records from three small lakes with areas of <10 ha (Hobart Lake, OR, 1458 masl; Swamp Lake, CA, 1554 masl; Favre Lake, NV, 2899 masl) and a larger lake (Medicine Lake, CA, 2036 masl, 154 ha) were compared in this study. All the lakes have a deep central basin (>10 m) surrounded by a shallow (1-2 m) shelf. Changes in the abundance of diatoms representing different life habits (benthic, tychoplanktic, planktic) were used to identify lake level variation. Benthic taxa dominate the assemblage when only the central basin is occupied. As the shallow shelf is flooded, the abundance of tychoplanktic taxa increases. Planktic taxa increase with the establishment of stratification. Favre Lake presents the clearest indication of initial lake level rise (7600-5750 cal yr BP) and intermittent flooding of the shelf for the remainder of the record. Stratification appears to become established only in the last few hundred years. Higher nutrient levels in the early part of the Hobart Lake record lead to a nearly monotypic planktic assemblage which is replaced by a tychoplanktic-dominated assemblage as the lake floods the shelf at about 3500 cal yr BP. The last 500 years is dominated by benthic taxa associated with aquatic macrophytes. The consistent presence of planktic taxa in the Swamp Lake record suggests that the lake was stratified during most of its history, although slight variations in the relative abundances of planktic and tychoplanktic groups occur. The Medicine Lake record shows a gradual increase in planktic species between 11

Glacial-hydrogeomorphic process of proglacial lake expansion and exploring its amplification effect on glacier recession in the Himalayas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, C.; Sheng, Y.; Wang, J.; Ke, L.; Nie, Y.

2016-12-01

Glacial lakes, as a key component of the cryosphere in the Himalayas in response to climate change, pose significant threats to the downstream lives and properties and eco-environment via outburst floods, yet our understanding of their evolution and reaction mechanism with connected glaciers is limited. Here, a regional investigation of glacial lake evolution and glacial-hydrogeomorphic process was conducted by integrating optical imagery, satellite altimetry and DEM. A classification scheme was first used to group glacial lakes of similar glacial and geo-morphology. Our studies show that debris-contact proglacial lakes experienced much more rapid expansions than ice cliff-contact and non-glacier-contact lakes. We further estimate the mass balance of parent glaciers and elevation changes in lake surfaces and debris-covered glacier tongues. Results reveal that the upstream expansion of debris-contact proglacial lakes was not directly related to rising water levels but with a geomorphological alternation of upstream lake basins caused by ice melt-induced debris subsidence at glacier termini. It suggests that the hydrogeomorphic process of glacier thinning and retreat, in comparison with direct meltwater supply alone, may have governed primarily the recent glacial lake expansion across the Himalayas. The mechanism of proglacial lake expansion provides an indirect way to estimate the lowering rates of glacier terminus. The debris-covered glacier fronts show considerable ice melts, with the lowering rate ranging from 1.0 to 9.7 m/yr. The rates exhibit obvious correlations with contacted lake sizes, centerline length and area of glaciers, suggesting that the glacier termini thinning is the combined effect of interplays between glacial lakes and ice flux from parent glaciers. Our study implies that substantial mass loss occurred at lake-contact glacier fronts, which cannot be ignored in assessing the overall mass balance of Himalayan glaciers.

Systematic study of magnetar outbursts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coti Zelati, F.; Rea, N.; Pons, J. A.; Campana, S.; Esposito, P.

2017-12-01

We present the results of the systematic study of all magnetar outbursts observed to date through a reanalysis of data acquired in about 1100 X-ray observations. We track the temporal evolution of the luminosity for all these events, model empirically their decays, and estimate the characteristic decay time-scales and the energy involved. We study the link between different parameters (maximum luminosity increase, outburst peak luminosities, quiescent X-ray and bolometric luminosities, energetics, decay time-scales, magnetic field, spin-down luminosity and age), and reveal several correlations between different quantities. We discuss our results in the framework of the models proposed to explain the triggering mechanism and evolution of magnetar outbursts. The study is complemented by the Magnetar Outburst Online Catalog (http://www.magnetars.ice.csic.es), an interactive database where the user can plot any combination of the parameters derived in this work and download all reduced data.

Development of a flood-warning system and flood-inundation mapping in Licking County, Ohio

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ostheimer, Chad J.

2012-01-01

Digital flood-inundation maps for selected reaches of South Fork Licking River, Raccoon Creek, North Fork Licking River, and the Licking River in Licking County, Ohio, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Ohio Department of Transportation; U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration; Muskingum Watershed Conservancy District; U.S. Department of Agriculture, Natural Resources Conservation Service; and the City of Newark and Village of Granville, Ohio. The inundation maps depict estimates of the areal extent of flooding corresponding to water levels (stages) at the following USGS streamgages: South Fork Licking River at Heath, Ohio (03145173); Raccoon Creek below Wilson Street at Newark, Ohio (03145534); North Fork Licking River at East Main Street at Newark, Ohio (03146402); and Licking River near Newark, Ohio (03146500). The maps were provided to the National Weather Service (NWS) for incorporation into a Web-based flood-warning system that can be used in conjunction with NWS flood-forecast data to show areas of predicted flood inundation associated with forecasted flood-peak stages. As part of the flood-warning streamflow network, the USGS re-installed one streamgage on North Fork Licking River, and added three new streamgages, one each on North Fork Licking River, South Fork Licking River, and Raccoon Creek. Additionally, the USGS upgraded a lake-level gage on Buckeye Lake. Data from the streamgages and lake-level gage can be used by emergency-management personnel, in conjunction with the flood-inundation maps, to help determine a course of action when flooding is imminent. Flood profiles for selected reaches were prepared by calibrating steady-state step-backwater models to selected, established streamgage rating curves. The step-backwater models then were used to determine water-surface-elevation profiles for up to 10 flood stages at a streamgage with corresponding streamflows ranging from approximately

Combining hydrological modeling and remote sensing observations to enable data-driven decision making for Devils Lake flood mitigation in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, X.; Lim, Y. H.; Teng, W. L.; Kirilenko, A.

2010-12-01

The water level of Devils Lake in North Dakota has been rising since 1993, reaching record highs in each of the past three years. Nearly $1 billion have already been spent in mitigating the flooding impacts. If the current wet cycle continues, Devils Lake, a terminal lake currently at 1452 ft, will likely overflow at 1458 ft and cause extensive downstream flooding, with devastating environmental and economic impacts at local, regional, and international levels. We have implemented a distributed rainfall-runoff model, HEC-HMS, to simulate the hydro-dynamics of the lake watershed, and used NASA's remote sensing data, including the TRMM Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) and AIRS surface air temperature, to drive the model. The entire watershed with an area of about 10,000 km2 was delineated into six sub-basins using 30 m DEM, with each sub-basin having several hundred thousand hydrological cells. We generated a fine-resolution weather data set, based on a combination of ground observations and remote sensing data, to drive the hydrological simulations. Compared with a very limited number of data series available from five meteorological stations located within the watershed (none belonging to the US Historical Climate Network), NASA data offer a uniform coverage and dense distribution. The satellite and ground observations of precipitation and temperature agreed well with each other. However, if only weather station data were used, the observed runoff was underestimated by at least 30%, regardless of the value of the snow melt-rate coefficient used. The inclusion of NASA data, on the other hand, greatly improved the accuracy of runoff estimates, to within 2% of observations. Better runoff estimates will enable better predictions of water levels. The watershed hydrological model is coupled with a reservoir model, HEC-ResSim. The calibration against the observed lake elevation and monthly evaporation estimates from 2001 to 2004 showed a lake seepage varying

Lake levels, streamflow, and surface-water quality in the Devils Lake area, North Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiche, Gregg J.

1996-01-01

The Devils Lake Basin is a 3,810-square-mile (mi2) closed basin (fig. 1) in the Red River of the North Basin. About 3,320 mi2 of the total 3,810 mi2 is tributary to Devils Lake; the remainder is tributary to Stump Lake.Since glaciation, the lake level of Devils Lake has fluctuated from about 1,457 feet (ft) above sea level (asl), the natural spill elevation of the lake to the Sheyenne River, to 1,400 ft asl (Aronow, 1957). Although no documented records of lake levels are available before 1867, Upham (1895, p. 595), on the basis of tree-ring chronology, indicated that the lake level was 1,441 ft asl in 1830. Lake levels were recorded sporadically from 1867 to 1901 when the U.S. Geological Survey established a gaging station on Devils Lake. From 1867 to the present (1996), the lake level has fluctuated between a maximum of 1,438.4 ft asl in 1867 and a minimum of 1,400.9 ft asl in 1940 (fig. 2). On July 31, 1996, the lake level was 1,437.8 ft asl, about 15.2 ft higher than the level recorded in February 1993 and the highest level in about 120 years.Since 1993, the lake level of Devils Lake (fig. 2) has risen rapidly in response to above-normal precipitation from the summer of 1993 to the present, and 30,000 acres of land around the lake have been flooded. The above-normal precipitation also has caused flooding elsewhere in the Devils Lake Basin. State highways near Devils Lake are being raised, and some local roads have been closed because of flooding.In response to the flooding, the Devils Lake Basin Interagency Task Force, comprised of many State and Federal agencies, was formed in 1995 to find and propose intermediate (5 years or less) solutions to reduce the effects of high lake levels. In addition to various planning studies being conducted by Federal agencies, the North Dakota State Water Commission has implemented a project to store water on small tracts of land and in the chain of lakes (Sweetwater Lake, Morrison Lake, Dry Lake, Mikes Lake, Chain Lake

Flooding in Central China

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

During the summer of 2002, frequent, heavy rains gave rise to floods and landslides throughout China that have killed over 1,000 people and affected millions. This false-color image of the western Yangtze River and Dongting Lake in central China was acquired on August 21, 2002, by the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), flying aboard NASA's Terra spacecraft. (right) The latest flooding crisis in China centers on Dingtong Lake in the center of the image. Heavy rains have caused it to swell over its banks and swamp lakefront towns in the province of Hunan. As of August 23, 2002, more than 250,000 people have been evacuated, and over one million people have been brought in to fortify the dikes around the lake. Normally the lake would appear much smaller and more defined in the MODIS image. Credit: Image courtesy Jacques Descloitres, MODIS Land Rapid Response Team at NASA GSFC.

Reconstruction of multistage massive rock slope failure: Polymethodical approach in Lake Oeschinen (CH)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knapp, Sibylle; Gilli, Adrian; Anselmetti, Flavio S.; Hajdas, Irka

2016-04-01

Lateglacial and Holocene rock-slope failures occur often as multistage failures where paraglacial adjustment and stress adaptation are hypothesised to control stages of detachment. However, we have only limited datasets to reconstruct detailed stages of large multistage rock-slope failures, and still aim at improving our models in terms of geohazard assessment. Here we use lake sediments, well-established for paleoclimate and paleoseismological reconstruction, with a focus on the reconstruction of rock-slope failures. We present a unique inventory from Lake Oeschinen (Bernese Alps, Switzerland) covering about 2.4 kyrs of rock-slope failure history. The lake sediments have been analysed using sediment-core analysis, radiocarbon dating and seismic-to-core and core-to-core correlations, and these were linked to historical and meteorological records. The results imply that the lake is significantly younger than the ~9 kyrs old Kandersteg rock avalanche (Tinner et al., 2005) and shows multiple rock-slope failures, two of which could be C14-dated. Several events detached from the same area potentially initiated by prehistoric earthquakes (Monecke et al., 2006) and later from stress relaxation processes. The data imply unexpected short recurrence rates that can be related to certain detachment scarps and also help to understand the generation of a historical lake-outburst flood. Here we show how polymethodical analysis of lake sediments can help to decipher massive multistage rock-slope failure. References Monecke, K., Anselmetti, F.S., Becker, A., Schnellmann, M., Sturm, M., Giardini, D., 2006. Earthquake-induced deformation structures in lake deposits: A Late Pleistocene to Holocene paleoseismic record for Central Switzerland. Eclogae Geologicae Helvetiae, 99(3), 343-362. Tinner, W., Kaltenrieder, P., Soom, M., Zwahlen, P., Schmidhalter, M., Boschetti, A., Schlüchter, C., 2005. Der nacheiszeitliche Bergsturz im Kandertal (Schweiz): Alter und Auswirkungen auf die

Multidisciplinary distinction of mass-movement and flood-induced deposits in lacustrine environments: implications for Holocene palaeohydrology and natural hazards (Lake Ledro, Southern Alps, Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simonneau, A.; Chapron, E.; Vannière, B.; Wirth, S. B.; Gilli, A.; Di Giovanni, C.; Anselmetti, F. S.; Desmet, M.; Magny, M.

2012-08-01

High-resolution seismic profiles and sediment cores from Lake Ledro combined with soil and river-bed samples from the lake's catchment area are used to assess the recurrence of natural hazards (earthquakes and flood events) in the southern Italian Alps during the Holocene. Two well-developed deltas and a flat central basin are identified on seismic profiles in Lake Ledro. Lake sediments are finely laminated in the basin since 9000 cal. yr BP and frequently interrupted by two types of sedimentary events: light-coloured massive layers and dark-coloured graded beds. Optical analysis (quantitative organic petrography) of the organic matter occurring in soils, river beds and lacustrine samples together with lake-sediment bulk density and grain-size analysis illustrate that light-coloured layers consist of a mixture of lacustrine sediments and mainly contain algal particles similar to the ones observed in background sediments. Light-coloured layers thicker than 1.5 cm in the main basin of Lake Ledro are dense and synchronous to numerous coeval mass-wasting deposits remoulding the slopes of the basin. They are interpreted as subaquatic mass movements triggered by historical and pre-historical regional earthquakes dated to 2005 AD, 1891 AD, 1045 AD and 1260, 2545, 2595, 3350, 3815, 4740, 7190, 9185 and 11495 cal. yr BP. Dark-coloured sedimentary event are dense and develop high-amplitude reflections in front of the deltas and in the deep central basin. These beds are mainly made of terrestrial organic matter (soils and ligno-cellulosic debris) and are interpreted as resulting from intense hyperpycnal flood events. Mapping and quantifying the amount of soil material accumulated in the Holocene hyperpycnal flood deposits of the sequence and applying the De Ploey erosion model allow estimating that the equivalent soil thickness eroded over the catchment area reached up to 4 mm during the largest Holocene flood events. Such significant soil erosion is interpreted as resulting

Effects of flood control alternatives on fish and wildlife resources of the Malheur-Harney lakes basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hamilton, David B.; Auble, Gregor T.; Ellison, Richard A.; Roelle, James E.

1985-01-01

Malheur Lake is the largest freshwater marsh in the western contiguous United States and is one of the main management units of the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge in southeastern Oregon. The marsh provides excellent waterfowl production habitat as well as vital migration habitats for birds in the Pacific flyway. Water shortages have typically been a problem in this semiarid area; however, record snowfalls and cool summers have recently caused Malheur Lake to rise to its highest level in recorded history. This has resulted in the loss of approximately 57,000 acres of important wildlife habitat as well as extensive flooding of local ranches, roads, and railroad lines. Because of the importance of the Refuge, any water management plan for the Malheur-Harney Lakes Basin needs to consider the impact of management alternatives on the hydrology of Malheur Lake. The facilitated modeling workshop described in this report was conducted January 14-18, 1985, under the joint sponsorship of the Portland Ecological Services Field Office and the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge, Region 1, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS). The Portland Field Office is responsible for FWS reporting requirements on Federal water resource projects while the Refuge staff has management responsibility for much of the land affected by high water levels in the Malheur-Harney Lakes Basin. The primary objective of the workshop was to begin gathering and analyzing information concerning potential fish and wildlife impacts, needs, and opportunities associated with proposed U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (COE) flood control alternatives for Malheur Lake. The workshop was structured around the formulation of a computer model that would simulate the hydrologic effects of the various alternatives and any concommitant changes in vegetation communities and wildlife use patterns. The simulation model is composed of three connected submodels. The Hydrology submodel calculates changes in lake volume, elevation

Heterogeneous Status of Glacial Terminal-Contacted Lakes in Himalayas Due to Different Geomorphology and Glacier Characters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Q.; Nie, Y.; Liu, S.

2014-12-01

Widespread expanding of glacial lakes around the Himalayas, which has led (or will lead) to hazard risks in their downstream valleys due to the potential glacial outburst flood (GLOF), has been widely reported during the past decades. Among all type of glacial lakes, those lakes contacted with the terminals of modern glaciers are generally found experienced most remarkable area increases. That is mostly due to the coupled processes, such as calving, between the lake growths and ice tongue retreats. Thermal absorption and convection of lake water are important for calving at the ice cliff or sub-marine melting under the supra-ponded water bodies. Currently, many larger moraine dammed lakes, e. g., Imja Tsho (Nepal) and Longbasaba Lake (China), are observed undergoing remarkable growths and synchronically with the rapid ice margin collapses due to calving. Some newly formed and rapidly growing supraglacial lakes are also identified on the debris-covered region of Himalayan glaciers, e. g., the Rongbuk Glacier (China), Ngozumpa Glacier (Nepal) and Thorthormi Glacier (Butan), which are speculated to experience accelerated expanding in the near future and finally developing as bigger terminal-calving lakes. However, not all such lake-glacier systems present the same scenes. After experienced the phases of rapid lake growth and terminal retreat, despite the contacting and calving still existing, the positions of the calving lines may be balanced by the positive advances of the ice tongue. We have observed several lakes with stagnation of growth or even shrinkage in lake area as the advance of the calving ice margin. The heterogeneous status of these ice-contacted glacial lakes are mainly due to the different local geomorphology (e. g., slope, lake-basin shape and valley aspect) and glacier characters (e. g., debris cover, velocity and mass balance). These related factors are important for both the prediction of lake and glacier changes and the evaluation of GLOF hazards

A catastrophic flood caused by drainage of a caldera lake at Aniakchak Volcano, Alaska, and implications for volcanic hazards assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waythomas, C.F.; Walder, J.S.; McGimsey, R.G.; Neal, C.A.

1996-01-01

Aniakchak caldera, located on the Alaska Peninsula of southwest Alaska, formerly contained a large lake (estimated volume 3.7 ?? 109 m3) that rapidly drained as a result of failure of the caldera rim sometime after ca. 3400 yr B.P. The peak discharge of the resulting flood was estimated using three methods: (1) flow-competence equations, (2) step-backwater modeling, and (3) a dam-break model. The results of the dam-break model indicate that the peak discharge at the breach in the caldera rim was at least 7.7 ?? 104 m3 s-1, and the maximum possible discharge was ???1.1 ?? 106 m3 s-1. Flow-competence estimates of discharge, based on the largest boulders transported by the flood, indicate that the peak discharge values, which were a few kilometers downstream of the breach, ranged from 6.4 ?? 105 to 4.8 ?? 106 m3 s-1. Similar but less variable results were obtained by step-backwater modeling. Finally, discharge estimates based on regression equations relating peak discharge to the volume and depth of the impounded water, although limited by constraining assumptions, provide results within the range of values determined by the other methods. The discovery and documentation of a flood, caused by the failure of the caldera rim at Aniakchak caldera, underscore the significance and associated hydrologic hazards of potential large floods at other lake-filled calderas.

Combining Hydrological Modeling and Remote Sensing Observations to Enable Data-Driven Decision Making for Devils Lake Flood Mitigation in a Changing Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhang, Xiaodong; Kirilenko, Andrei; Lim, Howe; Teng, Williams

2010-01-01

This slide presentation reviews work to combine the hydrological models and remote sensing observations to monitor Devils Lake in North Dakota, to assist in flood damage mitigation. This reports on the use of a distributed rainfall-runoff model, HEC-HMS, to simulate the hydro-dynamics of the lake watershed, and used NASA's remote sensing data, including the TRMM Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) and AIRS surface air temperature, to drive the model.

Characterizing the 2016 Perseid Meteor Shower Outburst

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blaauw, R. C.; Moser, D. E.; Molau, S.; Schult, C.; Stober, G.

2017-01-01

The Perseid meteor shower has been observed for millennia and is known for its visually spectacular meteors and occasional outbursts. Normal activity displays Zenithal Hourly Rates (ZHRs) of approximately100. The Perseids were expected to outburst in 2016, primarily due to particles released during the 1862 and 1479 revolutions of parent Comet Swift-Tuttle. NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office predicted the timing, strength and duration of the outburst for spacecraft risk using the MSFC Meteoroid Stream Model [1]. A double peak was predicted, with an outburst displaying a ZHR of 210 +/- 50 at 00:30 UTC Aug 12 (139.5deg Solar Longitude), and a traditional peak 12 hours later with rates still heightened from the outburst [2]. Video, visual, and radar observations taken worldwide by various entities were used to characterize the shower and compare to predictions.

On the origin of the HLX-1 outbursts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Mouyuan; Gu, Wei-Min; Yan, Zhen; Wu, Qingwen; Liu, Tong

2016-11-01

HLX-1, currently the best intermediate-mass black hole candidate, has undergone seven violent outbursts, each with a peak X-ray luminosity of Lpeak,X ˜ 1042 erg s-1. Interestingly, the properties of the HLX-1 outbursts evolve with time. In this work, we aim to constrain the physical parameters of the central engine of the HLX-1 outbursts in the framework of the black hole accretion. We find that the physical properties of the HLX-1 outbursts are consistent with being driven by the radiation pressure instability. This scenario can explain the evolution of the recurrent time-scales of the HLX-1 outbursts as a function of the durations.

77 FR 15664 - Proposed Flood Elevation Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-03-16

... table provided here represents the flooding sources, location of referenced elevations, and effective and modified elevations for the City of Cadiz, Kentucky. Specifically, it addresses the flooding... Cadiz, Kentucky'' addressed the flooding sources Little River (backwater effects from Lake Barkley) and...

The most acidified Austrian lake in comparison to a neutralized mining lake

PubMed Central

Moser, Michael; Weisse, Thomas

2011-01-01

This study investigated two mining lakes located in the north of Lower Austria. These lakes arose 45 years ago when open cast lignite mining ceased. The lakes are separated by a 7-m wide dam. Due to the oxidation of pyrite, both lakes have been acidified and exhibit iron, sulphate, and heavy metal concentrations several orders of magnitude higher than in circumneutral lakes. The water column of both lakes is divided into two layers by a pronounced chemocline. The smaller mining lake (AML), with pH close to of 2.6, is the most acidic lake in Austria, whereas flooding with stream water and by drainage from the surrounding fields neutralized the adjacent larger pit lake. The goal of our study was to investigate the effect of flooding on its physical, chemical and biological properties, in comparison to the pristine AML. Even relative to other extremely acidic lakes, the flora and fauna in the AML was reduced and composed of only two flagellate, one ciliate, and one rotifer species. The simplified pelagic food web in the mixolimnion consisted of heterotrophic bacteria, the mixotrophic flagellates Chlamydomonas acidophila and Ochromonas sp., the ciliate Oxytricha sp., and the rotifer Cephalodella sp. The latter two are as yet undescribed new species. The heliozoan Actinophrys sp. that may act as top predator occurred only in low abundance. The euglenid Lepocinclis buetschlii formed a stable deep chlorophyll maximum (DCM) at 7 m depth. Highest cell numbers of L. buetschlii in the DCM exceeded 108 L−1. The neutralized mining lake harboured higher plankton diversity similar to that of natural circumneutral lakes. A peak of at least 16 different phytoplankton taxa was observed during summer. The zooplankton consisted of several copepod species, daphnids and other cladocerans, and at least six different rotifer species. Several fish species occurred in the neutralized lake. Although the effect of non-permanent flooding was largely sustainable, interannual fluctuations of

Flood Plain Lakes Along the Elbe River - a Forgotten Risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heise, Susanne

2014-05-01

Flood Plain Lakes Along the Elbe River - a Forgotten Risk Introduction: Along the German part of the Elbe River, more than 1000 "side structures" form potential sinks of contaminated sediment. They are mostly remains of previous river courses which have been cut off by natural causes or anthropogenic alterations of the river (oxbow lakes), or are floodplain lakes that were formed during high water conditions. These water bodies sometimes have a small opening towards the Elbe, or are hydrodynamically connected only in situations of high discharges. High discharges in the Elbe River, however, are mainly responsible for transporting historic contaminants along with suspended matter from former historic sources in the middle Elbe downstream. As these may settle when the current dies down at the end of a high discharge period, side structures have been under suspicion to have accumulated contaminated material over the last decades. Until this study was conducted, nothing was known about erodibility and contamination of sediment in these lakes even though they could have a large impact on the Elbe River itself: A preliminary investigation showed that the total surface of side structures in the Elbe floodplain adds up to about 50 km2. In case that deposited sediment is contaminated and only the upper 20 cm are prone to resuspension and transport during flooding, 10 Mio m3 of contaminated sediment could potentially be added to the contaminant load during a high water event. This study was carried out to evaluate the risk from these side structures for the environmental quality of the Elbe River. Methods: 15 side structures were investigated. Sediment cores were taken on 1 to 3 locations per water body in order to obtain the following information: • Depth of sediment layer • Erodibility of surface sediment, measured immediately after sampling - using the "Gust Microcosm", • Eroded mass at over-critical shear stress, measured in the lab by eroding a sediment core for

Orbital Light Curves of UU Aquarii in Stunted Outburst

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robertson, J. W.; Honeycutt, R. K.; Henden, A. A.; Campbell, R. T.

2018-02-01

Stunted outbursts are ∼0.ͫ6 eruptions, typically lasting 5–10 days, which are found in some novalike cataclysmic variables, including UU Aqr. The mechanism responsible for stunted outbursts is uncertain but is likely related to an accretion disk instability or to variations in the mass transfer rate. A campaign to monitor the eclipse light curves in UU Aqr has been conducted in order to detect any light curve distortions due to the appearance of a hot spot on the disk at the location of the impact point of the accretion stream. If stunted outbursts are due to a temporary mass transfer enhancement, then predictable deformations of the orbital light curve are expected to occur during such outbursts. This study used 156 eclipses on 135 nights during the years 2000–2012. During this interval, random samples found the system to be in stunted outbursts 4%–5% of the time, yielding ∼7 eclipses obtained during some stage of stunted outburst. About half of the eclipses obtained during stunted outbursts showed clear evidence for hot spot enhancement, providing strong evidence that the stunted outbursts in UU Aqr are associated with mass transfer variations. The other half of the eclipses during stunted outburst showed little or no evidence for hot spot enhancement. Furthermore, there were no systematic changes in the hot spot signature as stunted outbursts progressed. Therefore, we have tentatively attributed the changes in hot spot visibility during stunted outburst to random blobby accretion, which likely further modulates the strength of the accretion stream on orbital timescales.

Outburst-related period changes of recurrent nova CI aquilae

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wilson, R. E.; Honeycutt, R. K., E-mail: honey@astro.indiana.edu, E-mail: rewilson@ufl.edu

2014-11-01

Pre-outburst and post-outburst light curves and post-outburst eclipse timings are analyzed to measure any period (P) change related to nova CI Aql's outburst of early 2000 and a mean post-outburst dP/dt, which then lead to estimates of the accreting component's rate of mass (M) change and its overall outburst-related change of mass over roughly a decade of observations. We apply a recently developed procedure for unified analysis of three timing-related data types (light curves, radial velocities, and eclipse timings), although with only light curves and timings in this case. Fits to the data are reasonably good without need for amore » disk in the light-curve model, although the disk certainly exists and has an important role in our post-outburst mass flow computations. Initial experiments showed that, although there seems to be an accretion hot spot, it has essentially no effect on derived outburst-related ΔP or on post-outburst dP/dt. Use of atomic time (HJED) in place of HJD also has essentially nil effect on ΔP and dP/dt. We find ΔP consistently negative in various types of solutions, although at best only marginally significant statistically in any one experiment. Pre-outburst HJD {sub 0} and P results are given, as are post-outburst HJD {sub 0}, P, and dP/dt, with light curves and eclipse times as joint input, and also with only eclipse time input. Post-outburst dP/dt is negative at about 2.4σ. Explicit formulae for mass transfer rates and epoch-to-epoch mass change are developed and applied. A known offset in the magnitude zero point for 1991-1994 is corrected.« less

GeV Outbursts in Mrk 501

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sreekumar, P.; Bertsch, D. L.; Bloom, S. D.; Hartman, R. C.; Lin, Y. C.; Mukherjee, R.; Thompson, D. J.

1999-01-01

Mrk 501 is the third TeV blazar with a known GeV component. Previous multiwavelength campaigns on Mrk 501 showed well correlated outbursts at x-ray and TeV energies with no significant activity at GeV energies. We present here new evidence suggesting GeV outbursts in Mrk 501 when the spectrum appears to be extremely hard. However, this outburst appears uncorrelated with emission at x-ray energies. The resulting spectral energy distribution suggests a sharp cut off in the high-energy emission beyond a few hundred GeV.

Impact of the Three-Gorges Dam and water transfer project on Changjiang floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakayama, Tadanobu; Shankman, David

2013-01-01

Increasing frequency of severe floods on the middle and lower Changjiang (Yangtze) River during the past few decades can be attributed to both abnormal monsoon rainfall and landscape changes that include extensive deforestation affecting river sedimentation, and shrinking lakes and levee construction that reduced the areas available for floodwater storage. The Three-Gorges Dam (TGD) and the South-to-North Water Transfer Project (SNWTP) will also affect frequency and intensity of severe floods in the Poyang Lake region of the middle Changjiang. Process-based National Integrated Catchment-based Eco-hydrology (NICE) model predicts that the TGD will increase flood risk during the early summer monsoon against the original justifications for building the dam, relating to complex river-lake-groundwater interactions. Several scenarios predict that morphological change will increase flood risk around the lake. This indicates the importance of managing both flood discharge and sediment deposition for the entire basin. Further, the authors assessed the impact of sand mining in the lake after its prohibition on the Changjiang, and clarified that alternative scenario of sand mining in lakes currently disconnected from the mainstream would reduce the flood risk to a greater extent than intensive dredging along junction channel. Because dry biomasses simulated by the model were linearly related to the Time-Integrated Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (TINDVI) estimated from satellite images, its decadal gradient during 1982-1999 showed a spatially heterogeneous distribution and generally decreasing trends beside the lakes, indicating that the increases in lake reclamation and the resultant decrease in rice productivity are closely related to the hydrologic changes. This integrated approach could help to minimize flood damage and promote better decisions addressing sustainable development.

Quaternary geology of the Channeled Scabland and adjacent areas

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baker, V. R.

1978-01-01

The quaternary history of the channeled scabland is characterized by discrete episodes of catastrophic flooding and prolonged periods of loess accumulation and soil formation. The loess sequence was correlated with Richmond's Rocky Mountain glacial chronology. At least five major catastrophic flood events occurred in the general vicinity of the channeled scabland. The earliest episode occurred prior to the extensive deposition of the Palouse formation. The last major episode of flooding occurred between about 18,000 and 13,000 years ago. It probably consisted of two outbursts from glacial Lake Missoula.

Not Just the 8.2 event: Dynamic Early Holocene Climate in Arctic Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Axford, Y.; Briner, J. P.; Miller, G. H.; Francis, D. R.

2006-12-01

Temperature reconstructions from a lake in the eastern Canadian Arctic indicate that peak warmth in the early Holocene was interrupted by two abrupt, short-lived temperature reversals at ~9.l and ~8.5 ka. Summer temperatures at Lake CF8, Baffin Island (~500 km west of Greenland) are inferred from subfossil midge (Chironomidae) assemblages. Our results indicate that the site, like others on Baffin Island, experienced exceptionally warm summers (almost 5°C warmer than present) through much of the early Holocene, presumably in response to enhanced summer insolation. After 1000 years of very warm, stable climate, warmth was interrupted by two discrete cold reversals at ~9.1 and ~8.5 ka, during which multiple cold-stenothermous midge taxa appeared in the lake and summer temperatures dropped more than 3°C. These two clearly-defined reversals, well beyond the range of background variability, were of similar amplitude and duration, and were separated by several centuries of near-peak warmth. The only Holocene events of comparable amplitude at this site are the rapid onset of Holocene warmth, and the more gradual Neoglacial cooling after 8 ka. Abrupt cooling events over the Baffin region are consistent with model simulations of the impacts of freshwater outbursts into the Labrador Sea, such as the Lake Agassiz outburst flood that occurred ~8.4 ka. That there are two discrete events recorded at this site indicates that the "8.2 event" was not uniquely significant in this region; rather, the period between approximately ~9.2 and 8 ka was characterized by repeated climate fluctuations forced by multiple outburst floods or other mechanisms. Thus global correlations among paleoclimate records need not assume that climate perturbations during this time period necessarily correlate with the draining of Lake Agassiz or the 8.2 ka cooling in central Greenland.

Changing flood frequencies under opposing late Pleistocene eastern Mediterranean climates.

PubMed

Ben Dor, Yoav; Armon, Moshe; Ahlborn, Marieke; Morin, Efrat; Erel, Yigal; Brauer, Achim; Schwab, Markus Julius; Tjallingii, Rik; Enzel, Yehouda

2018-05-31

Floods comprise a dominant hydroclimatic phenomenon in aridlands with significant implications for humans, infrastructure, and landscape evolution worldwide. The study of short-term hydroclimatic variability, such as floods, and its forecasting for episodes of changing climate therefore poses a dominant challenge for the scientific community, and predominantly relies on modeling. Testing the capabilities of climate models to properly describe past and forecast future short-term hydroclimatic phenomena such as floods requires verification against suitable geological archives. However, determining flood frequency during changing climate is rarely achieved, because modern and paleoflood records, especially in arid regions, are often too short or discontinuous. Thus, coeval independent climate reconstructions and paleoflood records are required to further understand the impact of climate change on flood generation. Dead Sea lake levels reflect the mean centennial-millennial hydrological budget in the eastern Mediterranean. In contrast, floods in the large watersheds draining directly into the Dead Sea, are linked to short-term synoptic circulation patterns reflecting hydroclimatic variability. These two very different records are combined in this study to resolve flood frequency during opposing mean climates. Two 700-year-long, seasonally-resolved flood time series constructed from late Pleistocene Dead Sea varved sediments, coeval with significant Dead Sea lake level variations are reported. These series demonstrate that episodes of rising lake levels are characterized by higher frequency of floods, shorter intervals between years of multiple floods, and asignificantly larger number of years that experienced multiple floods. In addition, floods cluster into intervals of intense flooding, characterized by 75% and 20% increased frequency above their respective background frequencies during rising and falling lake-levels, respectively. Mean centennial precipitation in

Decadal and Seasonal Variations of Alpine Lakes in Glacierized areas of Central Asia during 1990-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, J.; Warner, T.; Chen, X.; Bao, A.

2016-12-01

Central Asia is one of the world's most vulnerable areas responding to global change. Glacier lakes in the alpine regions remain sensitive to climatic change and fluctuate with temperature and precipitation variations. Study shows that glaciers in Central Asia have retreated dramatically, leading to the expansion of the existing glacial lakes and the emergence of many new glacier lakes. The existence of these lakes increases the possibility of outburst flood during the ice melting season, which can bring a disaster to the downstream area. Mapping glacial lakes and monitoring their changes would improve our understanding of regional climate change and glacier-related hazards. Glacial lakes in Central Asia are mainly located at the Tianshan Mountains, the Altai Mountains, the Kunlun Mountains and the Pamirs with average elevation more than 1500 meters. Most of these lakes are supplied with the glaciers or snowmelt water during the summer seasons. Satellite remote sensing provides an efficient and objective tool to analyze the status and variations of glacial lakes. The increased availability of remote sensing sensors with appropriate spatial and temporal resolutions, broad coverage makes lake investigations more feasible and cost-effective. The paper intends to map glacier lake changes in glacierized alpine mountains with Landsat TM/ETM+ imagery. More than 600 scenes of Landsat images in circa 1990, circa 2000, circa 2010 and circa 2015 are used to map the decadal glacial lake changes over the Central Asia, and about 8 expanding glacial lakes are selected to map seasonal changes. Over 12000 glacial lakes were mapped in circa 1990, and in 2015, lake number are more than 16000, most of these new lakes are emerging in the last 10 years. The result shows that the number and area of the glacial lakes in the Altain Mountain remain stable, while the Tianshan Mountain have experienced expanding changes in the last two decades, and about a half number of lake areas are

Outburst Cycle of the Dwarf Nova SS Cygni

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voikhanskaya, N. F.

2018-01-01

Extensive observational data obtained to date is analyzed with special attention given to space observations. The spectral type of the white dwarf is estimated and it is concluded that accretion of matter on it is the only source of the x-ray flux in the system. The rotation of the secondary is shown to be synchronous and therefore its illumination by hard x-rays results in the formation of stellar wind. This is the main mechanism of mass transfer onto the white dwarf. The geometry of the system prevents the formation of the disk by stellar wind. Instead, stellar wind forms a quasispherical envelope whose variability influences the outburst process. Based on these conclusions, the properties of the system are interpreted, which so far have remained unexplained: short-term appearance of peculiar spectrum during the rising phase of the outburst, rather constant width of absorption lines during the outburst, decrease of the width of emission lines during the outburst, variation of the x-ray and ultraviolet fluxes during ordinary and low-amplitude anomalous outbursts, and, finally, the quasiperiodicity of the outbursts.

Floods of June 2012 in northeastern Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Czuba, Christiana R.; Fallon, James D.; Kessler, Erich W.

2012-01-01

During June 19–20, 2012, heavy rainfall, as much as 10 inches locally reported, caused severe flooding across northeastern Minnesota. The floods were exacerbated by wet antecedent conditions from a relatively rainy spring, with May 2012 as one of the wettest Mays on record in Duluth. The June 19–20, 2012, rainfall event set new records in Duluth, including greatest 2-day precipitation with 7.25 inches of rain. The heavy rains fell on three major watersheds: the Mississippi Headwaters; the St. Croix, which drains to the Mississippi River; and Western Lake Superior, which includes the St. Louis River and other tributaries to Lake Superior. Widespread flash and river flooding that resulted from the heavy rainfall caused evacuations of residents, and damages to residences, businesses, and infrastructure. In all, nine counties in northeastern Minnesota were declared Federal disaster areas as a result of the flooding. Peak-of-record streamflows were recorded at 13 U.S. Geological Survey streamgages as a result of the heavy rainfall. Flood-peak gage heights, peak streamflows, and annual exceedance probabilities were tabulated for 35 U.S. Geological Survey streamgages. Flood-peak streamflows in June 2012 had annual exceedance probabilities estimated to be less than 0.002 (0.2 percent; recurrence interval greater than 500 years) for five streamgages, and between 0.002 and 0.01 (1 percent; recurrence interval greater than 100 years) for four streamgages. High-water marks were identified and tabulated for the most severely affected communities of Barnum (Moose Horn River), Carlton (Otter Creek), Duluth Heights neighborhood of Duluth (Miller Creek), Fond du Lac neighborhood of Duluth (St. Louis River), Moose Lake (Moose Horn River and Moosehead Lake), and Thomson (Thomson Reservoir outflow near the St. Louis River). Flood-peak inundation maps and water-surface profiles were produced for these six severely affected communities. The inundation maps were constructed in a

Application of ERTS imagery to environmental studies of Lake Champlain

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lind, A. O.

1974-01-01

ERTS Imagery has provided data relating to a number of environmental and limnological concerns such as water quality, lake flooding and lake ice formation. Pollution plume data provided by ERTS was recently used in the Supreme Court case involving the States of Vermont and New York and a paper company. Flooding of lowland tracts has been a major concern due to a repetitive pattern of high lake levels over the past three years, and ERTS imagery is being used to construct the first series of flood maps of the affected areas. Lake ice development and turbidity patterns have also been studied from ERTS, since these have significance for shore erosion studies.

Recent glacier retreat and lake formation in the Querecocha watershed, Cordillera Blanca, Peru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

López Moreno, J.; Valero-Garces, B.; Revuelto, J.; Azorín-Molina, C.; Bazo, J.; Cochachin, A.; Fontaneda, S.; Mark, B. G.

2013-12-01

In the Andes, and specifically in the Peruvian mountains a marked decrease of the glaciated area has occurred since the end of the Little Ice Age, and it has been accelerated since the last decades of the 20th century. As a result of the glacier retreat new pro-glaciar lakes are originated, and often the area and volume of existing ones increases. The study of these newly-formed lakes and their recent evolution may provide a better understanding of the hydrological and geomorphological evolution of deglaciated areas, and a better evaluation of the risk of glacial lakes outburst floods (GLOFS). In this work, we use 26 annual Landsat Thematic Mapper images from 1975 to 2010 to determine changes of the glaciated surface, snow line elevation and lakes formation in the headwaters of the Querecocha watershed in Cordillera Blanca (Perú). We also present the information derived from 10 short sediment cores (up to 50 cm long) retrieved along several transects in Yanamarey Lake. Both data sets inform of the sediment yield and lake development in recently deglaciated environments of the Andes. Results demonstrate that only one third of the surface covered by ice in 1975 remained in 2010. In this period, snowline has shifted up more than 100 meters in elevation in both, Yanamarey North and South areas respectively. At the same time, new lakes have been formed very quickly in these deglaciated areas. Preliminary 137Cs dating of Yanamarey sediment core indicates that at least the top 50 cm of the lake sequence deposited after 1960. This is coherent with the Landsat image of 1975 that showed the current surface of the lake still covered by ice. The high sediment rate (> 1 cm/yr) in the lake demonstrates the very high sediment yield in these geomorphically active settings. The sediment cores are composed of cm-thick sequences defined by grain-size (silt-clay) common in proglacial lakes reflecting the variability of hydrological response associated to the glacier retreat in the

Cooper Creek/Lake Yamma Yamma as seen from STS-67 Endeavour

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1995-01-01

Cooper Creek is one of the largest drainage's in the Channel Country of the arid interior of Australia (Queensland). Rivers in this region are usually dry but during floods (a few times per century) they occupy very wide flood plains, shown here as the darker areas with hairlike rills. After the great rains which recently fell in many parts of Australia, individual rills contain water and show up in sunglint in this view. Flow is to the south (top) towards Lake Eyre. Lake Yamma Yamma is the medallion-shaped 'flood-out' lake right center. Water can be seen entering the lake.

Accounting for wetlands loss in a changing climate in the estimation of long-term flood risks of Devils Lake, North Dakota

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gulbin, S.; Kirilenko, A.; Zhang, X.

2016-12-01

Endorheic (terminal) lakes with no water outlets are sensitive indicators of changes in climate and land cover in the watershed. Regional variation in precipitation pattern in the US Northern Great Plaines lead to a long term flooding of Devils Lake (DL), ND, leading to a 10-m water level rise in just two decades, with estimated flood mitigation costs of over $1 billion. While the climate change contribution to flooding has been established, the role of large scale land conversion to agriculture has not been researched. Wetlands play a very important part in hydrological balance by storing, absorbing and slowing peak water discharge. In ND, 49 % of wetlands are drained and converted to agriculture. We investigated the role of wetlands loss in DL flooding in current and future climate. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to simulate streamflow in all DL watershed subbasins. The model was calibrated using the 1991-2000 USGS gauge data for the first 10 years of study period and validated for the second 10 years (2001-2010), resulting in a satisfactory model performance compared against the measured water discharge in five streams in the watershed and against observed DL water level. A set of wetland loss scenarios were created based on the historical data and the Compound Topographic Index. To emulate the historical and future climate conditions, an ensemble of CMIP5 weather integrations based on IPCC AR5 RCP scenarios was downscaled with the MarkSim weather simulator. Model simulations indicate that the land use change in the DL watershed increased the impacts of climate change on hydrology by further elevating DL water level. Conversely, wetland restoration reduce the flooding and moderates risks of a potential high-impact DL overspill to the Sheyenne River watershed. Further research will concentrate on differentiation of climate change impacts under different types of land use change scenarios.

Effects of soil temperature, flooding, and organic matter addition on N2O emissions from a soil of Hongze Lake wetland, China.

PubMed

Lu, Yan; Xu, Hongwen

2014-01-01

The objectives of this study were to test the effects of soil temperature, flooding, and raw organic matter input on N2O emissions in a soil sampled at Hongze Lake wetland, Jiangsu Province, China. The treatments studied were-peat soil (I), peat soil under flooding (II), peat soil plus raw organic matter (III), and peat soil under flooding plus organic matter. These four treatments were incubated at 20°C and 35°C. The result showed that temperature increase could enhance N2O emissions rate and cumulative emissions significantly; moreover, the flooded soil with external organic matter inputs showed the lowest cumulative rise in N2O emissions due to temperature increment. Flooding might inhibit soil N2O emissions, and the inhibition was more pronounced after organic matter addition to the original soil. Conversely, organic matter input explained lower cumulative N2O emissions under flooding. Our results suggest that complex interactions between flooding and other environmental factors might appear in soil N2O emissions. Further studies are needed to understand potential synergies or antagonisms between environmental factors that control N2O emissions in wetland soils.

Role of supraglacial lakes in recession of Himalayan glaciers: A case study of Dudh Koshi basin, Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tuladhar, Florencia Matina; KC, Diwakar

2018-07-01

between glacier and glacial lake dynamics which will improve the resilience of downstream inhabitants from climate induced hazards, such as glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs).

Outbursts in Symbiotic Binaries: Z and Continued Observation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sonneborn, George (Technical Monitor); Keyes, Charles

2005-01-01

A major question for symbiotic stars concerns the nature and cause of their outbursts. A small subset of symbiotics, the "slow novae" are fairly well established as thermonuclear events that last on the order of decades. The several symbiotic "recurrent novae", which are much shorter and last on the order of months, are also thought to be thermonuclear runaways. Yet the majority of symbiotics are neither slow novae nor recurrent novae. These are the so-called "classical symbiotics," many of which show outbursts whose cause is not well understood. In some cases, jets are produced in association with an outburst, therefore an investigation into the causes of outbursts will yield important insights into the production of collimated outflows. To investigate the cause and nature of classical symbiotic outbursts, we initiated a program of multi- wavelength observations of these events. First of all in FUSE Cycle 2, we obtained six observational epochs of the 2000-2002 classic symbiotic outburst in the first target of our campaign - class prototype, Z Andromedae. That program was part of a coordinated multi-wavelength Target-of-Opportunity (TOO) campaign with FUSE, XMM, Chandra, MERLIN, the VLA, and ground-based spectroscopic and high time-resolution photometric observations. Our campaign proved the concept, utility, and need for coordinated multi-wavelength observations in order to make progress in understanding the nature of the outburst mechanisms in symbiotic stars. Indeed, the FUSE data were the cornerstone of this project. The present program is a continuation of that cycle 2 effort. Indeed, the observations acquired in this program are vital to the proper interpretation of the material acquired in cycle 2 as the new data cover the critical time period when the star continues to decline from outburst and actually returns to quiescence. The utilization of these data have allowed us to refine and complete description of our new model for classical symbiotic system

Turbulent fluctuations and the excitation of Z Cam outbursts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ross, Johnathan; Latter, Henrik N.

2017-09-01

Z Cam variables are a subclass of dwarf nova that lie near a global bifurcation between outbursting ('limit cycle') and non-outbursting ('standstill') states. It is believed that variations in the secondary star's mass-injection rate instigate transitions between the two regimes. In this paper, we explore an alternative trigger for these transitions: stochastic fluctuations in the disc's turbulent viscosity. We employ simple one-zone and global viscous models which, though inappropriate for detailed matching to observed light curves, clearly indicate that turbulent disc fluctuations induce outbursts when the system is sufficiently close to the global bifurcation point. While the models easily produce the observed 'outburst/dip' pairs exhibited by Z Cam and Nova-like variables, they struggle to generate long trains of outbursts. We conclude that mass transfer variability is the dominant physical process determining the overall Z Cam standstill/outburst pattern, but that viscous stochasticity provides an additional ingredient explaining some of the secondary features observed.

Meteor stream activity. 2: Meteor outbursts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jenniskens, P.

1995-01-01

In the past two centuries, alert amateur and professional meteor astronomers have documented 35 outbursts of 17 individual meteor streams well enough to allow the construction of a homogeneous set of activity curves. These curves add to similar profiles of the annual streams in a previous paper (Paper 1). This paper attempts to define the type and range of phenomena that classify as meteor outbursts from which the following is concluded: Outbursts are associated with the return of the comet to perihelion (near-comet type outbursts), but occur also when the parent comet is far from perihelion and far from the Earth (far-comet type). All outbursts of a given type only, depending on encounter geometry. The activity curves, expressed in terms of Zenith Hourly Rates (ZHR), have a shape that is generally well described by: ZHR = ZHR(sub max) 10(sup(-B (the absolute value of lambda (sub dot in a circle) - lambda (sup max) (sub dot in a circle))). The steepness of the slopes varies from an exponent of B = 7 to B = 220 per degree of solar longitude, with a typical value of B = 30. In addition, most near-comet type outbursts have a broader component underlying the main peak with B approximately 1 - 7.The duration Delta t is approximately 1/B of the main peak is almost independent of location near the comet, while the background component varies considerably in duration and relative intensity from one return to another. The two components in the activity curve are due to two distinct structures in the dust distribution near the parent comet, where the main component can be due to a sheet of dust that emanates from the IRAS dust trail. This brings the total number of distinct structures in meteor streams to four, including the two structures from the annual stream activity in Paper 1.

Plasma response to a cometary outburst: Rosetta Plasma Consortium observations during comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko outburst event on 19 February 2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hajra, R.; Bruce, T.; Pierre, H.; Galand, M. F.; Heritier, K. L.; Edberg, N. J. T.; Burch, J. L.; Broiles, T. W.; Goldstein, R.; Glassmeier, K. H.; Richter, I.; Goetz, C.; Nilsson, H.; Altwegg, K.; Rubin, M.; Tanimori, T.

2016-12-01

Cometary outbursts are one of the most spectacular aspects of comet behavior. They are characterized by an abrupt increase in cometary brightness followed by a gradual fall off to the pre-event brightness. Although there are several studies on outburst events, to our knowledge, no detailed analysis on the variation of the cometary plasma environment during an outburst has ever been reported. On 19 February 2016, when comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko was at a heliocentric distance of 2.4 AU, an outburst event, characterized by two orders of magnitude increase in coma surface brightness, took place. Rosetta was at a distance of 30 km from the comet nucleus, orbiting with a relative speed of 0.17 m/s. The Rosetta Plasma Consortium (RPC) provided in-situ measurements of the cometary plasma, embedded in the solar wind, and the associated magnetic field during this outburst, as the dust and gas expelled from the comet were passing by the spacecraft. While the neutral density (ROSINA/COPS) at the spacecraft position increased by a factor of 1.5, the local plasma density (RPC/MIP) was found to increase by a factor of 3 during the outburst event, driving the spacecraft potential more negative (RPC/LAP). The event was characterized by the energy degradation of energetic (10s of eV) electrons (RPC/IES). In response to the outburst, the local magnetic field exhibited a slight increase in amplitude and a slow rotation (RPC/MAG). A weakening of 10-100 mHz magnetic field fluctuations was also observed during the outburst. The RPC instruments show that the effects of the outburst on the plasma lasted for about 4 hours, from 1000 UT to 1400 UT. Detailed analyses of the observations made by RPC along with ROSINA/COPS will be presented in the paper.

Outburst of the recurrent nova V745 Sco

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waagen, Elizabeth O.

2014-02-01

The outburst of the recurrent nova V745 Sco (Nova Sco 1937) by Rod Stubbings (Tetoora Road, VIC, Australia) at visual magnitude 9.0 on 2014 February 6.694 UT is reported. This recurrent nova is fading quickly. Follow-up observations of all types (visual, CCD, DSLR) are strongly encouraged, as is spectroscopy; fast time-series of this nova may be useful to detect possible flaring activity as was observed during the outburst of U Scorpii in 2010. Coincident time-series by multiple observers would be most useful for such a study, with a V-filter being preferred. Observations reported to the AAVSO International Database show V745 Sco at visual mag. 10.2 on 2014 Feb. 07.85833 UT (A. Pearce, Nedlands, W. Australia). Finder charts with sequence may be created using the AAVSO Variable Star Plotter (http://www.aavso.org/vsp). Observations should be submitted to the AAVSO International Database. Previous outbursts occurred in 1937 and 1989. The 1937 outburst was detected in 1958 (in decline at magnitude 11.0 on 1937 May 11.1 UT; outburst had occurred within the previous 19 days) by Lukas Plaut on plates taken by Hendrik van Gent at the Leiden Observatory; the object was announced as Nova Sco 1937 and later assigned the GCVS name V745 Sco. The 1989 outburst was detected on 1989 August 1.55 UT by Mati Morel (MMAT, Thornton, NSW, Australia) at visual magnitude 10.4 and in decline. Dr. Bradley Schaefer (Louisiana State University) reports (2010ApJS..187..275S) in his comprehensive analysis of the 10 known galactic recurrent novae (including V745 Sco) that the median interval between recurrent novae outbursts is 24 years. The interval since the 1989 outburst of V745 Sco is 24.10 years. See the Alert Notice for additional visual and multicolor photometry and for more details.

Mekong Floods Fill Tonle Sap

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

The monsoon season in Southeast Asia brings recurring, often devastating floods to countries in the region, but these floods also play a necessary role in the region's water cycle. These MODIS images centered on Cambodia reveal extensive flooding of the Mekong River, which comes in from Laos in the north, to the right of center in the images, and flows south through Cambodia and southeast through Vietnam to empty into the South China Sea. The true-color image shows the brownish, sediment-laden floodwaters filling the Mekong Delta in southern Cambodia and Vietnam on September 15, 2001. The false color image above has been enhanced to bring out the contrast between the floodwaters and the lands, with sediment-carrying floodwaters in purple. Sediment can be seen flowing into the South China Sea as well. This year's floods have affected over a million people, and 100 people have been killed in Vietnam alone. The monsoon floods bring not only devastation, but renewal. The large body of water just left of center in Cambodia is the Tonle Sap. This shallow lake plays a changing role in the regional water cycle. During the dry season, the stream-fed Tonle Sap drains via the Tonle Sab River into the Mekong River. During the wet season (June-November), flooding of the Mekong reverses the course of the Tonle Sab, roughly tripling the lake's size from about 3000 km2 to about 10,000. When the dry season returns, the lake once again begins to drain into the Mekong Delta, where it provides a flow of fresh water that balances the intrusion of salty seawater into the delta's agricultural lands. Image courtesy Jacques Descloitres, MODIS Land Rapid Response Team at NASA GSFC

The Impact of FU Orionis Outbursts and the Solar Nebula

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bell, Robbins; Young, Richard E. (Technical Monitor)

1998-01-01

Protostellar systems are variable on many timescales. One of the most dramatic forms of variability known to occur in low mass stellar systems is the FU Orionis outburst (Herbig 1977). Throughout a typical outburst lasting several decades, system luminosities may be a hundred times what is typical of the quiesent state. FU Orionis outburst events are thought to have significant impact on the thermal structure of the protosolar nebula; their existence has been used to explain features in the meteoritic record from thermally induced homogenization to the formation of chondrules. Until recently, the magnitude of the likely effect from such outbursts has been largely speculative due to the lack of a detailed understanding of the outburst mechanism. Recent numerical models (Bell\\& Lin 1994) have demonstrated the viability of the observational hypothesis (Hartmann\\& Kenyon 1985) that the radiation observed during outburst is emitted by a luminous circumstellar disk transporting mass at a thousand times the quiesent rate. Light curves and color and line width evolution observed in FU Orionis systems are naturally explained by time dependent outbursting model disks (Bell et al. 1995). The radial temperature structure and shape of the disk during outburst derived from these models may be used to calculate the outburst's expected impact on primitive material at various radii throughout the disk. In this review, we will begin by discussing what is known about the FU Orionis outburst phenomenon from recent observations and theory including statistically deduced outburst timescales and observed peak temperatures. Unless covered by another author, we will discuss the evidence which suggests that outburst radiation is emitted by a circumstellar disk rather than by the star and will briefly review the thermal instability as a mechanism for outburst. We will then report on recent work which investigates the likely heating of solar nebula material due to FU Orionis outbursts

Multi-instrumental observations of the 2014 Ursid meteor outburst

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moreno-Ibáñez, Manuel; Trigo-Rodríguez, Josep M.; Madiedo, José María; Vaubaillon, Jérémie; Williams, Iwan P.; Gritsevich, Maria; Morillas, Lorenzo G.; Blanch, Estefanía; Pujols, Pep; Colas, François; Dupouy, Philippe

2017-06-01

The Ursid meteor shower is an annual shower that usually shows little activity. However, its Zenith hourly rate sometimes increases, usually either when its parent comet, 8P/Tuttle, is close to its perihelion or its aphelion. Outbursts when the comet is away from perihelion are not common and outbursts when the comet is close to aphelion are extremely rare. The most likely explanation offered to date is based on the orbital mean motion resonances. The study of the aphelion outburst of 2000 December provided a means of testing that hypothesis. A new aphelion outburst was predicted for 2014 December. The SPanish Meteor Network, in collaboration with the French Fireball Recovery and InterPlanetary Observation Network, set up a campaign to monitor this outburst and eventually retrieve orbital data that expand and confirm previous preliminary results and predictions. Despite unfavourable weather conditions over the south of Europe over the relevant time period, precise trajectories from multistation meteor data recorded over Spain were obtained, as well as orbital and radiant information for four Ursid meteors. The membership of these four meteors to the expected dust trails that were to provoke the outburst is discussed, and we characterize the origin of the outburst in the dust trail produced by the comet in the year ad 1392.

Evolution and hazard analysis of high-mountain lakes in the Cordillera Vilcabamba (Southern Peru) from 1991 to 2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guardamino, Lucía; Drenkhan, Fabian

2015-04-01

In recent decades, glaciers in high-mountain regions have experienced unprecedented glacier retreat since the Little Ice Age (LIA). This development triggers the formation and growth of glacier lakes, which in combination with changes in glacier parameters might produce more frequent conditions for the occurrence of disasters, such as Glacier Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF). Facing such a scenario, the analysis of changing lake characteristics and identification of new glacier lakes are imperative in order to identify and reduce potential hazards and mitigate or prevent future disasters for adjacent human settlements. In this study, we present a multi-temporal analysis with Landsat TM 5 and OLI 8 images between 1991 and 2014 in the Cordillera Vilcabamba region (Southern Peru), a remote area with difficult access and climate and glaciological in-situ data scarcity. A semi-automatic model was developed using the band ratios Normalized Difference Snow Index (NDSI) and Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) in order to identify glacier and lake area changes. Results corroborate a strong glacier area reduction of about 51% from 1991 (200.3 km²) to 2014 (98.4 km²). At the same time, the number of lakes (total lake surface) has increased at an accelerated rate, from 0.77% (0.48%) in 1991 to 2.31% (2.49%) in 2014. In a multiple criteria analysis to identify potential hazards, 90 out of a total of 329 lakes in 2014 have been selected for further monitoring. Additionally, 29 population centers have been identified as highly exposed to lake related hazards from which 25 indicate a distance less than 1 km to an upstream lake and four are situated in a channel of potential debris flow. In these areas human risks are particularly high in view of a low HDI below Peru's average and hence pronounced vulnerability. We suggest more future research on measurements and monitoring of glacier and lake characteristics in these remote high-mountain regions, which include comprehensive risk

High-resolution characterization of individual flood deposits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Støren, Eivind; Paasche, Øyvind; Hirt, Ann

2014-05-01

In most fluvial landscapes rivers transport sediments within and across catchments throughout the year. During flood events the capacity and competence of the river manifolds, and consequently more sediment are eroded and transported within the catchment. Whenever such sediment-laden rivers reach lakes, sediments are deposited at rate much faster than background sedimentation. For this reason alone, lakes can provide exceptionally rich archives of paleofloods. Flood sediments carry information not only about frequency variability through time, but also about source area(s), the time of the deposit (on a seasonal scale), as well as the evolution of the flood. In order to scrutinize the information that can be extracted from such pristine lake records we have developed an approach where high-resolution data are compared to high-precision measurements of selected samples. More specifically, data from high-resolution X-ray fluorescence (XRF) scanning (Itrax) and magnetic susceptibility (Bartington MS2 point sensor) can potentially provide information on annual to decadal resolution. These fast and effective surface scanning methods are subjected to well-known uncertainties, which can impact the interpretation of individual layers. To overcome this challenge - and obtain the highest possible precision and resolution - precise quantitative analysis of discrete flood layers using magnetic hysteresis measurements and First-order reversal curves (FORCs) as well as conventional X-ray fluorescence spectrometer (Philips PW1404) have been conducted. FORCs are obtained with an Alternating Gradient Force Magnetometer and have exceptional high sensitivity (1 x 10-11 A m2) that allows samples smaller than 200 milligrams to be measured. This means that sediments representing a band of less than a couple of millimeters in the lake sediment cores can be sampled without notable contamination from adjacent non-flood sediments, and analyzed with a high degree of precision (analytical

Protoplanetary Formation and the FU Orionis Outburst

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bodenheimer, P. H.

1996-01-01

The following three publications which reference the above grant from the NASA Origins of Solar Systems program are attached and form the final technical report for this project. The research involved comparisons of the spectral energy distributions of FU Orionis objects with theoretical models and associated studies of the structure of the outbursting accretion disks, as well as related studies on the effects of magnetic fields in disks, which will lead in the future to models of FU Orionis outbursts which include the effects of magnetic fields. The project was renewed under a new grant NAGW-4456, entitled 'Effects of FU Orionis Outbursts on Protoplanetary Disks'. Work now being prepared for publication deals more specifically with the issue of the effects of the outbursts on protoplanetary formation. Models of the spectral energy distribution of FU Orionis stars. A simple model of a buoyant magnetic dynamo in accretion disks and a numerical study of magnetic buoyancy in an accretion disk have been submitted.

The Effect of a Tectonic Stress Field on Coal and Gas Outbursts

PubMed Central

An, Fenghua; Cheng, Yuanping

2014-01-01

Coal and gas outbursts have always been a serious threat to the safe and efficient mining of coal resources. Ground stress (especially the tectonic stress) has a notable effect on the occurrence and distribution of outbursts in the field practice. A numerical model considering the effect of coal gas was established to analyze the outburst danger from the perspective of stress conditions. To evaluate the outburst tendency, the potential energy of yielded coal mass accumulated during an outburst initiation was studied. The results showed that the gas pressure and the strength reduction from the adsorbed gas aggravated the coal mass failure and the ground stress altered by tectonics would affect the plastic zone distribution. To demonstrate the outburst tendency, the ratio of potential energy for the outburst initiation and the energy consumption was used. Increase of coal gas and tectonic stress could enhance the potential energy accumulation ratio, meaning larger outburst tendency. The component of potential energy for outburst initiation indicated that the proportion of elastic energy was increased due to tectonic stress. The elastic energy increase is deduced as the cause for a greater outburst danger in a tectonic area from the perspective of stress conditions. PMID:24991648

LANDSLIDE DAMMED LAKES AT MOUNT ST. HELENS, WASHINGTON.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meyer, William; Sabol, Martha A.; Schuster, Robert; ,

1986-01-01

The collapse of the north face of Mount St. Helens on May 18, 1980, and the debris avalanche that resulted blocked outflow from Spirit Lake and Coldwater and South Fork Castle Creeks. Spirit Lake began to increase in size and lakes began to form in the canyons of Coldwater and South Fork Castle Creeks. Coldwater and Castle Lakes would have overtopped their respective blockages in late 1981 or early 1982. Catastrophic flooding would have occurred from the breakout of Coldwater Lake while serious flooding probably would have resulted from the breakout of Castle Lake. As a result, the level of both lakes was stabilized with spillways in 1981. The three blockages are stable against liquefaction and gravitationally induced slope failure. The existence of groundwater in the blockages was observed in piezometers installed between 1981 and 1983. Groundwater mounds with water levels above lake level exist under the crest of all of the blockages.

Evolving hydrologic connectivity in discontinuous permafrost lowlands: what it means for lake systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walvoord, M. A.; Jepsen, S. M.; Rover, J.; Voss, C. I.; Briggs, M. A.

2015-12-01

Permafrost influence on the hydrologic connectivity of surface water bodies in high-latitude lowlands is complicated by subsurface heterogeneity and the propensity of the system to change over time. In general, permafrost limits the subsurface exchange of water, solute, and nutrients between lakes and rivers. It follows that permafrost thaw could enhance subsurface hydrologic connectivity among surface water bodies, but the impact of this process on lake distribution is not well known. Changes in the extent of lakes in interior Alaska have important ecological and societal impacts since lakes provide (1) critical habitat for migratory arctic shorebirds and waterfowl, fish, and wildlife, and (2) provisional, recreational, and cultural resources for local communities. We utilize electromagnetic imaging of the shallow subsurface and remote sensing of lake level dynamics in the Yukon Flats of interior Alaska, USA, together with water balance modeling, to gain insight into the influence of discontinuous permafrost on lowland lake systems. In the study region with relatively low precipitation, observations suggest that lakes that are hydrologically isolated during normal conditions are sustained by periodic river flooding events, including ice-jam floods that occur during river ice break-up. Climatically-influenced alterations in flooding frequency and intensity, as well as depth to permafrost, are quantitatively assessed in the context of lake maintenance. Scenario modeling is used to evaluate lake level evolution under plausible changing conditions. Model results demonstrate how permafrost degradation can reduce the dependence of typical lowland lakes on flooding events. Study results also suggest that river flooding may recharge a more spatially widespread zone of lakes and wetlands under future scenarios of permafrost table deepening and enhanced subsurface hydrologic connectivity.

Investigating the physical properties of outbursts on comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Z.-Y.; Knollenberg, J.; Vincent, J.-B.; A'Hearn, M. F.; Ip, W.-H.; Sierks, H.; &. The Osiris Team

2017-09-01

Our measurements of outbursts were based on the outburst sequences scheduled by single-filter observation (UV375 filter in WAC or orange filter in NAC) and pairs of consecutive images obtained in short time interval with NAC orange filter. The main results from the analysis of the images of outbursts from July 29 to September 30, 2015 can be summarized as follows: The calculated excess brightness from these outburst plume ranges from a few percent to ˜28%. In some major outbursts, the contributed brightness from the outburst plume can be one or two times larger than the typical coma jet activities. The strongest one is the perihelion outburst detected just a few hours before the comet reached perihelion. By studying the brightness slope of outburst plume, we interpret the detected transient events as the continuous streams of outflowing gas and dust which are triggered by some particular mechanisms and then remain active for some minutes to less than few hours. The mass ejection rate during a large outburst could reach a few percent of the steady state value of the dust coma.

Potential GLOF Hazards and Initiatives taken to minimize its Impacts on Downstream Communities and Infrastructures in Nepal Himalaya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Regmi, D.; Kargel, J. S.; Leonard, G. J.; Haritashya, U. K.; Karki, A.; Poudyal, S.

2017-12-01

With long-term temperature increases due to climate change, glacier lakes in several parts of the world are a fast-developing threat to infrastructure and downstream communities. There are more than 2000 glacier lakes in Nepal; while most pose no significant hazard to people, a comparative few are very dangerous, such as Tso Rolpa, Imja, Barun and Thulagi glacier lakes. The objectives of this study are to present 1) a review of prior glacier lake studies that have been carried out in the Nepal Himalaya; 2) recent research results, including bathymetric studies of the lakes; 3) a summary of possible infrastructure damages, especially multi-million-dollar hydropower projects, that are under threat of glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs); 4) to present the outcome of the recently completed Imja lake lowering project, which is the highest altitude lake ever controlled by lowering the water level. This project is being undertaken as a response to a scientific ground-based bathymetric and geophysical survey funded by the United Nations Development Program and a satellite-based study of the long-term development of the lake (funded by NASA's SERVIR program, J. Kargel, PI). The objective of the Imja Lake GLOF mitigation project is to lower the water level by three meters to reduce the lake volume, increase the freeboard, and improve the safety of tourism, downstream communities, and the infrastructure of Nepal's Everest region. This GLOF mitigation step taken by Nepal's government to reduce the risk of an outburst flood is a good step to reduce the chances of a GLOF, and to reduce the magnitude of a disaster if a GLOF nonetheless occurs despite our best efforts. We will also present the prospects for the future of Imja Lake, including an outline of possible steps that could further reduce the hazards faced by downstream communities and infrastructure. Key words: Glacier Lakes; GLOF; Hydropower; Imja lake; lake lowering

OUTBURST DUST PRODUCTION OF COMET 29P/SCHWASSMANN-WACHMANN 1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hosek, Matthew W. Jr.; Blaauw, Rhiannon C.; Cooke, William J.

2013-05-15

Multi-aperture photometry of Comet 29P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 1 was conducted on Johnson-Cousins R-band observations spanning 2011 May 1-9 and 2012 June 6-July 3. The comet was observed in outburst on 2011 May 3 and 2012 July 1, during which its brightness increased by 2.2 and 2.1 mag, respectively, as measured through a 10 arcsec aperture. Dust production before and after each outburst is calculated using the parameter Af {rho}, which is converted to a lower limit on the dust production rate based on dust models and derived nuclear properties from other studies. Both outbursts are accompanied by large increases in dust production,more » Af {rho} by a factor of {approx}6.5-7 and dust production rate by a factor of {approx}18-23. In addition, variations in the dust brightness profile of the coma are examined during the events. The profile is observed to steepen significantly at the beginning of each outburst and then slowly return to pre-outburst values, mirroring the behavior of Af {rho}. The start of an outbound 'ripple' of dust in the profile might be observed as the comet returns to its pre-outburst state, although this cannot be confirmed. Using a simple model of the 2011 May 3 outburst, an estimated lower limit of (2.6 {+-} 0.7) Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 8} kg of dust was released during the event. If this is representative of a typical outburst of 29P, then it is estimated that outbursts account for a lower limit of 80{sub -30}{sup +20}% of the total material ejected by the comet per year.« less

Flooding in Southern Russia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

Over the past two weeks, heavy rains have inundated southern Russia, giving rise to floods that killed up to 83 people and drove thousands from their homes. This false-color image acquired on June 23, 2002, by the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard the Terra satellite shows some of the worst flooding. The Black Sea is the dark patch in the lower left-hand corner. The city of Krasnodor, Russia, which was one of the cities hardest hit, sits on the western edge of the larger lake on the left side of the image, and Stavropol, which lost more lives than any other city, sits just east of the small cluster of lakes on the right-hand side of the image. Normally, the rivers and smaller lakes in this image cannot even be seen clearly on MODIS imagery. In this false-color image, the ground is green and blue and water is black or dark brown. Clouds come across as pink and white. Credit: Image courtesy Jesse Allen, NASA GSFC, based on data provided by the MODIS Rapid Response System.

The inter-outburst behavior of cataclysmic variables

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Szkody, Paula; Mattei, Janet A.; Waagen, Elizabeth O.; Stablein, Clay

1990-01-01

Existing International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE) and American Association of Variable Star Observers (AAVSO) archive data was used to accomplish a large scale study of what happens to the ultraviolet flux of accretion disk systems during the quiescent intervals between outbursts and how it relates to the preceding outburst characteristics of amplitude and width. The data sample involved multiple IUE observations for 16 dwarf novae and 8 novae along with existing optical coverage. Results indicate that most systems show correlated ultraviolet (UV) flux behavior with interoutburst phase, with 60 percent of the dwarf novae and 50 percent of the novae having decreasing flux trends while 33 percent of the dwarf novae and 38 percent of the novae show rising UV flux during the quiescent interval. All of the dwarf novae with decreasing UV fluxes at 1475A have orbital periods longer than 4.4 hours, while all (except BV Cen) with flat or rising fluxes at 1475A have orbital periods less than two hours. There are not widespread correlations of the UV fluxes with the amplitude of the preceding outburst and no correlations with the width of the outburst. From a small sample (7) that have relatively large quiescent V magnitude changes between the IUE observations, most show a strong correlation between the UV and optical continuum. Interpretation of the results is complicated by not being able to determine how much the white dwarf contributes to the ultraviolet flux. However, it is now evident that noticeable changes are occurring in the hot zones in accreting systems long after the outburst, and not only for systems that are dominated by the white dwarf. Whether these differences are due to different outburst mechanisms or to changes on white dwarfs which provide varying contributions to the UV flux remains to be determined.

Prevalence and clinical correlates of explosive outbursts in Tourette Syndrome

PubMed Central

Chen, Kevin; Budman, Cathy L.; Herrera, Luis Diego; Witkin, Joanna E.; Weiss, Nicholas T.; Lowe, Thomas L.; Freimer, Nelson B.; Reus, Victor I.; Mathews, Carol A.

2012-01-01

The aim of this study was to examine the prevalence and clinical correlates of explosive outbursts in two large samples of individuals with TS, including one collected primarily from non-clinical sources. Participants included 218 TS-affected individuals who were part of a genetic study (N=104 from Costa Rica (CR) and N=114 from the US). The relationship between explosive outbursts and comorbid attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), obsessive compulsive disorder (OCD), tic severity, and prenatal and perinatal complications were examined using regression analyses. Twenty percent of participants had explosive outbursts, with no significant differences in prevalence between the CR (non-clinical) and the US (primarily clinical) samples. In the overall sample, ADHD, greater tic severity, and lower age of tic onset were strongly associated with explosive outbursts. ADHD, prenatal exposure to tobacco, and male gender were significantly associated with explosive outbursts in the US sample. Lower age of onset and greater severity of tics were significantly associated with explosive outbursts in the CR sample. This study confirms previous studies that suggest that clinically significant explosive outbursts are common in TS and associated with ADHD and tic severity. An additional potential risk factor, prenatal exposure to tobacco, was also identified. PMID:23040794

DAVs: Red Edge and Outbursts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luan, Jing

2018-04-01

As established by ground based surveys, white dwarfs with hydrogen atmospheres pulsate as they cool across the temperature range, 12500K< Teff < 10800K . Known as DAVs or ZZ Ceti stars, their oscillations are attributed to overstable g-modes excited by convective driving. The effective temperature at the blue edge of the instability strip is slightly lower than that at which a surface convection zone appears. The temperature at the red edge is a two-decade old puzzle. Recently, Kepler discovered a number of cool DAVs exhibiting sporadic outbursts separated by days, each lasting several hours, and releasing \\sim 10^{33}-10^{34} {erg}. We provide quantitative explanations for both the red edge and the outbursts. The minimal frequency for overstable modes rises abruptly near the red edge. Although high frequency overstable modes exist below the red edge, their photometric amplitudes are generally too small to be detected by ground based observations. Nevertheless, these overstable parent modes can manifest themselves through nonlinear mode couplings to damped daughter modes which generate limit cycles giving rise to photometric outbursts.

Discovery of relict subglacial lakes and their geometry and mechanism of drainage

PubMed Central

Livingstone, Stephen J.; Utting, Daniel J.; Ruffell, Alastair; Clark, Chris D.; Pawley, Steven; Atkinson, Nigel; Fowler, Andrew C.

2016-01-01

Recent proxy measurements reveal that subglacial lakes beneath modern ice sheets periodically store and release large volumes of water, providing an important but poorly understood influence on contemporary ice dynamics and mass balance. This is because direct observations of how lake drainage initiates and proceeds are lacking. Here we present physical evidence of the mechanism and geometry of lake drainage from the discovery of relict subglacial lakes formed during the last glaciation in Canada. These palaeo-subglacial lakes comprised shallow (<10 m) lenses of water perched behind ridges orientated transverse to ice flow. We show that lakes periodically drained through channels incised into bed substrate (canals). Canals sometimes trend into eskers that represent the depositional imprint of the last high-magnitude lake outburst. The subglacial lakes and channels are preserved on top of glacial lineations, indicating long-term re-organization of the subglacial drainage system and coupling to ice flow. PMID:27292049

76 FR 26980 - Proposed Flood Elevation Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-05-10

...-2010-0003; Internal Agency Docket No. FEMA-B-1155] Proposed Flood Elevation Determinations AGENCY... Lake Michigan and White Ditch in La Porte County, Indiana. The City of Michiana Shores should have been listed as the Town of Michiana Shores. DATES: Comments pertaining to the Lake Michigan and White Ditch...

Outbursts in Symbiotic Binaries

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mushotzky, Richard (Technical Monitor); Kenyon, Scott J.

2003-01-01

Two models have been proposed for the outbursts of symbiotic stars. In the thermonuclear model, outbursts begin when the hydrogen burning shell of a hot white dwarf reaches a critical mass. After a rapid increase in the luminosity and effective temperature, the white dwarf evolves at constant luminosity to lower effective temperatures, remains at optical maximum for several years, and then returns to quiescence along a white dwarf cooling curve. In disk instability models, the brightness rises when the accretion rate from the disk onto the central white dwarf abruptly increases by factors of 5-20. After a few month to several year period at maximum, both the luminosity and the effective temperature of the disk decline as the system returns to quiescence.

Very rare outburst of the symbiotic variable AG Peg

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waagen, Elizabeth O.

2015-06-01

The symbiotic variable AG Peg is in outburst, the first one observed since its only known outburst, which occurred in 1860-1870. Currently at visual/V magnitude 7.2 (B=7.8), it is an excellent target for visual, PEP, CCD, and DSLR observers and spectroscopists. The current outburst began after 2015 May 27 UT (T. Markham, Leek, Staffordshire, England, from the BAAVSS online database) and was underway by June 13.90 (A. Kosa-Kiss, Salonta, Romania). AG Peg has a very interesting history. Regarding the 1860-1870 outburst, data collected by E. Zinner (Merrill, 1959, S&T, 18, 9, 490) show AG Peg slowly brightening from visual magnitude 9.2 in 1821 to 8.0 in 1855, then at 6.2 in 1860 and brightening to 6.0 in 1870, then in decline at 6.8 by 1903, and continuing to decline slowly ( 6.9 in 1907, 8.0 in 1920, 8.3 in 1940). Observations in the AAVSO International Database since July 1941 show that the decline has continued without interruption from an average magnitude of 7.7 to an average magnitude of 8.8-9.0 by mid-January 2015. The AAVSO data since 1941 also show the periodic 0.4-magnitude variations ( 825 days) that have been present since the 1920s. Thus, after taking about 10 years to brighten from its minimum magnitude of about 9 to its maximum magnitude of 6.0, and then fading gradually over 140-145 years, AG Peg is now in outburst again. There are no observations of the 1860-1870 outburst that show the outburst's beginning. This time, however, in 2015, the opportunity is here to follow the outburst itself closely and learn just what this system does during outburst. Observations in all bands and visual observations are strongly encouraged. AG Peg is bright enough to be a very good PEP target. For spectroscopists, AG Peg has an extremely complex spectrum that undergoes substantial changes and would make a very interesting target. Finder charts with sequence may be created using the AAVSO Variable Star Plotter (https://www.aavso.org/vsp). Observations should be

Water Level Prediction of Lake Cascade Mahakam Using Adaptive Neural Network Backpropagation (ANNBP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mislan; Gaffar, A. F. O.; Haviluddin; Puspitasari, N.

2018-04-01

A natural hazard information and flood events are indispensable as a form of prevention and improvement. One of the causes is flooding in the areas around the lake. Therefore, forecasting the surface of Lake water level to anticipate flooding is required. The purpose of this paper is implemented computational intelligence method namely Adaptive Neural Network Backpropagation (ANNBP) to forecasting the Lake Cascade Mahakam. Based on experiment, performance of ANNBP indicated that Lake water level prediction have been accurate by using mean square error (MSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). In other words, computational intelligence method can produce good accuracy. A hybrid and optimization of computational intelligence are focus in the future work.

UV spectroscopy of Z Chamaeleontis. II - The 1988 January normal outburst

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harlaftis, E. T.; Naylor, T.; Hassall, B. J. M.; Charles, P. A.; Sonneborn, G.; Bailey, J.

1992-01-01

IUE observations taken during the 1988 January normal outburst of Z Cha are presented and a detailed comparison with the 1987 April superoutburst is made. The most important difference from the superoutburst is that the normal outburst continuum flux shows less than 10 percent orbital variation away from the eclipse, implying that there is no 'cool' bulge on the disk to occult the brighter inner disk periodically. The implications for the outburst mechanism in the types of outburst are discussed. The evolution of the continuum flux distribution and emission-line fluxes, the modulation of the continuum and line fluxes with orbital phase, and the behavior of the mideclipse spectral during normal outburst are investigated.

2014–2015 MULTIPLE OUTBURSTS OF 15P/FINLAY

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ishiguro, Masateru; Kwon, Yuna Grace; Kim, Yoonyoung

Multiple outbursts of a Jupiter-family comet (JFC), 15P/Finlay, occurred from late 2014 to early 2015. We conducted an observation of the comet after the first outburst and subsequently witnessed another outburst on 2015 January 15.6–15.7. The gas, consisting mostly of C{sub 2} and CN, and dust particles expanded at speeds of 1110 ± 180 m s{sup −1} and 570 ± 40 m s{sup −1} at a heliocentric distance of 1.0 au. We estimated the maximum ratio of solar radiation pressure with respect to the solar gravity β {sub max} = 1.6 ± 0.2, which is consistent with porous dust particles composed of silicates and organics. We found thatmore » 10{sup 8}–10{sup 9} kg of dust particles (assumed to be 0.3 μ m–1 mm) were ejected through each outburst. Although the total mass is three orders of magnitude smaller than that of the 17P/Holmes event observed in 2007, the kinetic energy per unit mass (10{sup 4} J kg{sup −1}) is equivalent to the estimated values of 17P/Holmes and 332P/2010 V1 (Ikeya–Murakami), suggesting that the outbursts were caused by a similar physical mechanism. From a survey of cometary outbursts on the basis of voluntary reports, we conjecture that 15P/Finlay-class outbursts occur >1.5 times annually and inject dust particles from JFCs and Encke-type comets into interplanetary space at a rate of ∼10 kg s{sup −1} or more.« less

Predictors of recovery from post-traumatic stress disorder after the dongting lake flood in China: a 13-14 year follow-up study.

PubMed

Dai, Wenjie; Wang, Jieru; Kaminga, Atipatsa C; Chen, Long; Tan, Hongzhuan; Lai, Zhiwei; Deng, Jing; Liu, Aizhong

2016-11-08

Floods are some of the most common and destructive natural disasters in the world, potentially leading to both physical injuries and psychological disorders, including post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). PTSD can damage functional capacity and interfere with social functioning. However, little is known about recovery from PTSD after floods. This study used 2013-2014 follow-up data on survivors of the 1998 Dongting Lake flood who were diagnosed with PTSD in 2000 to measure the prevalence rate of PTSD at follow-up and identify predictors of recovery from the PTSD diagnosis in 2000. Participants included survivors who had been diagnosed as having PTSD in 2000 after the 1998 Dongting Lake flood. PTSD at follow-up was reassessed using the PTSD Checklist-Civilian version. Information on demographics, trauma-related stressors, post-trauma stressors, social support, and coping style were collected through face-to-face interviews. The association between the independent variables and PTSD at follow-up was analyzed using logistic regression analyses. A total of 201 participants with a PTSD diagnosis in 2000 were included in this study. A total of 19.4 % of the flood survivors with PTSD in 2000 continued to suffer from PTSD in 2013-2014. In the multivariable logistic regression model, individuals who had lost relatives (OR = 12.37, 95 % CI = 2.46-62.16), suffered from bodily injury (OR = 5.01, 95 % CI = 1.92-13.08), had a low level of social support (OR = 5.47, 95 % CI = 1.07-27.80), or had a negative coping style (OR = 4.92, 95 % CI = 1.89-12.81) were less likely to recover from PTSD. The prevalence rate of PTSD at follow-up indicates that natural disasters such as floods may have a negative influence on survivors' mental health for an extended period of time. Individuals who have lost relatives, suffered from bodily injury, had a low level of social support, or had a negative coping style were less likely to recover from PTSD. Therefore

Close-range photogrammetric reconstruction of moraine dam failures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westoby, M. J.; Brasington, J.; Glasser, N. F.; Hambrey, M. J.; Reynolds, J. M.

2012-04-01

Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) from moraine-dammed lakes represent a high magnitude, low frequency catastrophic glacio-fluvial phenomena, with the potential to cause significant damage to property and infrastructure in high-mountain regions. Detailed accounts of GLOF dynamics, in particular the initiation and propagation of dam breaching are extremely rare, owing to their occurrence in often remote, inaccessible areas, as well as the impracticalities associated with attempting to directly instrument such high magnitude, turbulent flows. In addition to the dearth of detailed, first-hand observations of dam failures, reconstruction of breaches and failure mechanisms derived from morphological evidence is hampered by the lack of high-quality, high-resolution DTMs of remote alpine areas. Previous studies have therefore resorted to the use of coarse resolution data products (SRTM, ASTER GDEM) to quantify characteristics of failure events, e.g. pre-flood lake volume, dam height/width, which may give rise to considerable uncertainty in related numerical simulations and assessments of downstream flood hazards. In this paper we employ a novel low-cost, close-range photogrammetric technique, termed 'Structure-from-Motion' (SfM) to provide detailed in-situ reconstructions of dam and valley topography for two moraine dam complexes which have produced historical GLOFs in the Khumbu Himal, Nepal. Requiring little more than a consumer-grade digital camera and suitable ground control for implementation, the resolution of the final data products are comparable to that obtained using ground-based or airborne LiDAR. These data facilitate the extraction of precise estimates of dam (and breach) geometry, volumes of water and sediment removed during the outburst events, and the downstream channel topography. We conclude by directly comparing such key metrics derived from low-resolution topographic datasets, with those acquired in situ using the SfM technique, and discuss the

Spatial distribution and temporal development of high-mountain lakes in western Austria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merkl, Sarah; Emmer, Adam; Mergili, Martin

2015-04-01

Glacierized high-mountain environments are characterized by active morphodynamics, favouring the rapid appearance and disappearance of lakes. On the one hand, such lakes indicate high-mountain environmental changes such as the retreat of glaciers. On the other hand, they are sometimes susceptible to sudden drainage, leading to glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) putting the downstream population at risk. Whilst high-mountain lakes have been intensively studied in the Himalayas, the Pamir, the Andes or the Western Alps, this is not the case for the Eastern Alps. A particular research gap, which is attacked with the present work, concerns the western part of Austria. We consider a study area of approx. 6,140 km², covering the central Alps over most of the province of Tyrol and part of the province of Salzburg. All lakes ≥250 m² located higher than 2000 m asl are mapped from high-resolution Google Earth imagery and orthophotos. The lakes are organized into seven classes: (i) ice-dammed; near-glacial (ii) moraine-dammed and (iii) bedrock-dammed; (iv) moraine-dammed and (v) bedrock-dammed distant to the recent glaciers; (vi) landslide-dammed; (vii) anthropogenic. The temporal development of selected lakes is investigated in detail, using aerial photographs dating back to the 1950s. 1045 lakes are identified in the study area. Only eight lakes are ice-dammed (i). One third of all lakes is located in the immediate vicinity of recent glacier tongues, half of them impounded by moraine (ii), half of them by bedrock (iii). Two thirds of all lakes are impounded by features (either moraines or bedrock) shaped by LIA or Pleistocenic glaciers at some distance to the present glacier tongues (iv and v). Only one landslide-dammed lake (vi) is identified in the study area, whilst 21 lakes are of anthropogenic origin (vii). 72% of all lakes are found at 2250-2750 m asl whilst less than 2% are found above 3000 m asl. The ratio of rock-dammed lakes increases with increasing

Impact of a cometary outburst on its ionosphere. Rosetta Plasma Consortium observations of the outburst exhibited by comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko on 19 February 2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hajra, R.; Henri, P.; Vallières, X.; Galand, M.; Héritier, K.; Eriksson, A. I.; Odelstad, E.; Edberg, N. J. T.; Burch, J. L.; Broiles, T.; Goldstein, R.; Glassmeier, K. H.; Richter, I.; Goetz, C.; Tsurutani, B. T.; Nilsson, H.; Altwegg, K.; Rubin, M.

2017-11-01

We present a detailed study of the cometary ionospheric response to a cometary brightness outburst using in situ measurements for the first time. The comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko (67P) at a heliocentric distance of 2.4 AU from the Sun, exhibited an outburst at 1000 UT on 19 February 2016, characterized by an increase in the coma surface brightness of two orders of magnitude. The Rosetta spacecraft monitored the plasma environment of 67P from a distance of 30 km, orbiting with a relative speed of 0.2 m s-1. The onset of the outburst was preceded by pre-outburst decreases in neutral gas density at Rosetta, in local plasma density, and in negative spacecraft potential at 0950 UT. In response to the outburst, the neutral density increased by a factor of 1.8 and the local plasma density increased by a factor of 3, driving the spacecraft potential more negative. The energetic electrons (tens of eV) exhibited decreases in the flux of factors of 2 to 9, depending on the energy of the electrons. The local magnetic field exhibited a slight increase in amplitude ( 5 nT) and an abrupt rotation ( 36.4°) in response to the outburst. A weakening of 10-100 mHz magnetic field fluctuations was also noted during the outburst, suggesting alteration of the origin of the wave activity by the outburst. The plasma and magnetic field effects lasted for about 4 h, from 1000 UT to 1400 UT. The plasma densities are compared with an ionospheric model. This shows that while photoionization is the main source of electrons, electron-impact ionization and a reduction in the ion outflow velocity need to be accounted for in order to explain the plasma density enhancement near the outburst peak.

Geology of the Mid-Miocene Rooster Comb Caldera and Lake Owyhee Volcanic Field, eastern Oregon: Silicic volcanism associated with Grande Ronde flood basalt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benson, Thomas R.; Mahood, Gail A.

2016-01-01

The Lake Owyhee Volcanic Field (LOVF) of eastern Oregon consists of rhyolitic caldera centers and lava fields contemporaneous with and spatially related to Mid-Miocene Columbia River flood basalt volcanism. Previous studies delineated two calderas in the southeastern part of LOVF near Owyhee Reservoir, the result of eruptions of two ignimbrites, the Tuff of Leslie Gulch and the Tuff of Spring Creek. Our new interpretation is that these two map units are differentially altered parts of a single ignimbrite produced in a major phreatomagmatic eruption at 15.8 Ma. Areas previously mapped as Tuff of Spring Creek are locations where the ignimbrite contains abundant clinoptilolite ± mordenite, which made it susceptible to erosion. The resistant intracaldera Tuff of Leslie Gulch has an alteration assemblage of albite ± quartz, indicative of low-temperature hydrothermal alteration. Our new mapping of caldera lake sediments and pre- and post-caldera rhyolitic lavas and intrusions that are chemically similar to intracaldera Tuff of Leslie Gulch point to a single 20 × 25 km caldera, which we name the Rooster Comb Caldera. Erosion of the resurgently uplifted southern half of the caldera created dramatic exposures of intracaldera Tuff of Leslie Gulch cut by post-caldera rhyolite dikes and intrusions that are the deeper-level equivalents of lava domes and flows that erupted into the caldera lake preserved in exposures to the northeast. The Rooster Comb Caldera has features in common with more southerly Mid-Miocene calderas of the McDermitt Volcanic Field and High Rock Caldera Complex, including formation in a basinal setting shortly after flood basalt eruptions ceased in the region, and forming on eruption of peralkaline ignimbrite. The volcanism at Rooster Comb Caldera postdates the main activity at McDermitt and High Rock, but, like it, begins 300 ky after flood basalt volcanism begins in the area, and while flood basalts don't erupt through the silicic focus, are

Open Source and Open Standard based decision support system: the example of lake Verbano floods management.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cannata, Massimiliano; Antonovic, Milan; Pozzoni, Maurizio; Graf, Andrea

2015-04-01

The Locarno area (Switzerland, Canton Ticino) is exposed to lacual floods with a return period of about 7-8 years. The risk is of particular concern because the area is located in a floodplain that registered in the last decades a great increase in settlement and values of the real estates. Moreover small differences in lake altitude may produce a significant increase in flooded area due to the very low average slope of the terrain. While fatalities are not generally registered, several important economic costs are associated, e.g.: damages to real estates, interruption of activities, evacuation and relocation and environmental damages. While important events were registered in 1978, 1993, 2000, 2002 and 2014 the local stakeholder invested time and money in the set-up of an up-to-date decision support system that allows for the reduction of risks. Thanks to impressive technological advances the visionary concept of the Digital Earth (Gore 1992, 1998) is being realizing: geospatial coverages and monitoring systems data are increasingly available on the Web, and more importantly, in a standard format. As a result, today is possible to develop innovative decision support systems (Molinari et al. 2013) which mesh-up several information sources and offers special features for risk scenarios evaluation. In agreement with the exposed view, the authors have recently developed a new Web system whose design is based on the Service Oriented Architecture pattern. Open source software (e.g.: Geoserver, PostGIS, OpenLayers) has been used throughout the whole system and geospatial Open Standards (e.g.: SOS, WMS, WFS) are the pillars it rely on. SITGAP 2.0, implemented in collaboration with the Civil protection of Locarno e Vallemaggia, combines a number of data sources such as the Federal Register of Buildings and Dwellings, the Cantonal Register of residents, the Cadastral Surveying, the Cantonal Hydro-meteorological monitoring observations, the Meteoswiss weather forecasts, and

Floods in the Iowa River basin upstream from Coralville Lake, Iowa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heinitz, Albert J.

1973-01-01

Flood profiles for the main stem include those for the 1947, 1954, 1969, the computed 25- and 50-year floods, and a partial profile for the June 1972 flood. On the West Branch Iowa River, profiles are shown for the 1944, 1969, the computed 25- and 50-year floods, and a partial profile for the June 1954 flood. On the East Branch Iowa River, profiles are shown for the 1954, 1969, the computed 25- and 50-year floods, and a partial profile for the June 1944 flood. Low-water profiles are shown for all reaches.

Water outburst activity in Comet 17P/Holmes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Almeida, Amaury A.; Boice, Daniel C.; Picazzio, Enos; Huebner, Walter F.

2016-08-01

Cometary outbursts are sporadic events whose mechanisms are not well known where the activity and consequently the brightness can increase hundreds of thousands of times within a few hours to several days. This indicates a dramatic departure from thermal equilibrium between the comet and interplanetary space and is usually documented by ;light curves;. In a typical cometary outburst, the brightness can increase by 2-5 magnitudes (Whitney, 1955; Gronkowski and Wesolowski, 2015). In only 42 h, Comet 17P/Holmes was reported to brighten from a magnitude of about 17 to about 2.4 at the height of the burst, representing the largest known outburst by a comet. We present the H2O production rate of Holmes for the megaburst occurring between 23 and 24 October 2007. For this, we selected more than 1900 photometric observations from the International Comet Quarterly Archive of Photometric Data (Green, 2007) and use the Semi-Empirical Method of Visual Magnitudes (SEMVM; de Almeida et al., 2007). We clearly show that the comet achieved an average water production rate of 5 × 1029 molecules s-1, corresponding to a water gas loss rate of 14,960 kg s-1, in very good agreement with Schleicher (2009) who derived the water production rate using OH measurements on 1 Nov 2007 (about 8 days after the outburst). We discuss possible physical processes that might cause cometary outbursts and propose a new qualitative mechanism, the Pressurized Obstructed Pore (POP) model. The key feature of POP is the recrystallization of water in the surface regolith as it cools, plugging pores and blocking the release of subsurface gas flow. As the interior gas pressure increases, an outburst is eventually triggered. POP is consistent with current observations and can be tested in the future with observations (e.g., Rosetta in situ measurements) and detailed simulations.

Outbursts and Disk Variability in Be Stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Labadie-Bartz, Jonathan; Chojnowski, S. Drew; Whelan, David G.; Pepper, Joshua; McSwain, M. Virginia; Borges Fernandes, Marcelo; Wisniewski, John P.; Stringfellow, Guy S.; Carciofi, Alex C.; Siverd, Robert J.; Glazier, Amy L.; Anderson, Sophie G.; Caravello, Anthoni J.; Stassun, Keivan G.; Lund, Michael B.; Stevens, Daniel J.; Rodriguez, Joseph E.; James, David J.; Kuhn, Rudolf B.

2018-02-01

In order to study the growth and evolution of circumstellar disks around classical Be stars, we analyze optical time-series photometry from the KELT survey with simultaneous infrared and visible spectroscopy from the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment survey and Be Star Spectra database for a sample of 160 Galactic classical Be stars. The systems studied here show variability including transitions from a diskless to a disk-possessing state (and vice versa), and persistent disks that vary in strength, being replenished at either regularly or irregularly occurring intervals. We detect disk-building events (outbursts) in the light curves of 28% of our sample. Outbursts are more commonly observed in early- (57%), compared to mid- (27%) and late-type (8%) systems. A given system may show anywhere between 0 and 40 individual outbursts in its light curve, with amplitudes ranging up to ∼0.5 mag and event durations between ∼2 and 1000 days. We study how both the photometry and spectroscopy change together during active episodes of disk growth or dissipation, revealing details about the evolution of the circumstellar environment. We demonstrate that photometric activity is linked to changes in the inner disk, and show that, at least in some cases, the disk growth process is asymmetrical. Observational evidence of Be star disks both growing and clearing from the inside out is presented. The duration of disk buildup and dissipation phases are measured for 70 outbursts, and we find that the average outburst takes about twice as long to dissipate as it does to build up in optical photometry. Our analysis hints that dissipation of the inner disk occurs relatively slowly for late-type Be stars.

Recurrence of July Joklhlaup Flooding in the Mendenhall Glacier Watershed is Driven by Record Breaking Precipitation, Regional Warming, and the Collapse of a Tributary Glacier near Juneau, AK USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Connor, C. L.; Hood, E. W.; Hekkers, M.; Kugler, N.

2012-12-01

During the summer of 2012, the U.S. Weather Service Station in Juneau, AK (located at 24 m asl and near the 1769 Little Ice Age terminal moraine of the Mendenhall Glacier), recorded the lowest daily average maximum May to July temperature of 12.2oC (54.9o F), [2.4oC (-4.4o F) below normal] over 69 years of record. This year's summer temperature anomalies contrast with an overall Juneau trend of warming 1.6oC, (2.88oF) since 1943. The rising temperature parallels glacier ice reduction by thinning at a rate of >2m/yr and ice terminus retreat of 3.86 km between 1909 and 2011. Mendenhall Lake which began forming after 1930 has increased from 3.9 to 4.2 km2 in area and 0.05-0.09 km3 in volume between 2000 and 2011 as the glacier retreated. Since 2000, maximum lake depth has increased from 70 to 90m at the lakefront terminus. Northeast and 3.6 km above the glacier terminus, the Suicide Basin Ice Fall no longer flows into Mendenhall glacier, which has created a large ice-marginal basin that can hold a substantial volume of water. Once rare, mid-summer flooding has recently been caused by abrupt subglacial releases of rain water stored in this tributary cirque basin. Large water volumes are lifting and flowing under the surviving main trunk of the Mendenhall Glacier. These glacial outburst floods have raised Mendenhall Lake levels and increased discharge into the outlet Mendenhall River. On July 19-22, 2011 an estimated subglacial discharge of 37,000,000 m3 (1,306,642,650 ft3) raised proglacial Mendenhall Lake level by 1.67m (5.5 ft) and increased discharge on the Mendenhall River from 79 to 453 m3/s (2,800-16,000 f3/s). Temperature sensor strings on buoys in the lake have captured lake bottom (-49m) temperature drops of ~ 1oC as cold waves of subglacially released water move at depth from the glacier base into the river. Lake temperature data from summer 2012 sensors will be presented at this meeting. During summer 2012, a repeat joklhlaup event occurred July 3-6, rising

SIMULATING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUTFLOW AFTER HURRICANE KATRINA

EPA Science Inventory

Hurricane Katrina was the direct cause of the flooding of New Orleans in September 2005. Between its passage and the pumping of flood waters back into Lake Pontchartrain and the Mississippi River, the flood waters acquired considerable amounts of contaminants, notably silver, but...

Lake Enriquillo, Dominican Republic

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-08-15

Lake Enriquillo is a hypersaline lake in the Dominican Republic. In 2004, the lake covered an area of 164 square kilometers; by 2011, it had doubled in size and grown to 350 km2, inundating farmland and homes. Various reasons for the flooding include increases in rainfall; increase of sediments going into the lake, raising the lakebed; and milder temperatures, reducing surface evaporation. The lake is home to the largest population of American crocodiles in the Caribbean. The images were acquired October 26, 2003 and June 10, 2017, cover an area of 22.7 by 45.4 km, and are located at 18.5 degrees north, 71.6 degrees west. An image of Lake Enriquillo taken in 2003 is available at https://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA21815

The formation process of the flood type lamina in the Lake Mokoto, Hokkaido, Japan.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seto, K.; Katsuki, K.; Takeshi, S.

2017-12-01

In the coastal area of the Sea of Okhotsk in the east part of Hokkaido located to subarctic zone, many brackish-water lakes are distributed. Lake Mokoto consist of organic mud with the lamination. The 09Mk-1C core at 2009. In the soft X-ray photograph, the cyclic lamina set is observed. The cyclic lamina set consists of low- and high-density lamina. According to the meteorological data in Abashiri region, the annually precipitation is high from August to September. Probably, the cyclic lamina set is formed by seasonal change of precipitation. In August 2016, it showed a precipitation of 425 mm which is about 4 times the average precipitation. In February 2017, the 10 cm class short core (17Mk-4SC core) was collected and the flood lamina was observed. Six layers showing different color were observed in top 6.5 cm. The first, third and fifth layers from the top are relatively light in color (L*value=17). The second, fourth and sixth layers are relatively dark in color (L*value=8). Thickness of the first to fourth layers is about 5 mm, but the thickness of the fifth layer reaches 4 cm. According to the observation of the soft X-ray photograph, the third and fifth layers were high-density lamina, and the others were low-density lamina. Because these layers were not observed in the 15Mk-3C core collected in March 2015, they were deposited after that. It is estimated that the third layer showing the high-density lamina is the sediment of the flood event in August 2016. This is supported by the fact that the total organic carbon (TOC) and total sulfur (TS) contents are diluted and the C/N ratio is relatively high value. Because this lamina is remarkable, it will be used as a future key bed. On the other hand, the fifth layer showing the high-density is a very thick. In this layer, the TS content is diluted and the C/N ratio is high, but the TOC content shows the highest value. This suggests that sediments with high TOC content flowed out from Mokoto River Basin. It has

Ensemble Flow Forecasts for Risk Based Reservoir Operations of Lake Mendocino in Mendocino County, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delaney, C.; Hartman, R. K.; Mendoza, J.; Evans, K. M.; Evett, S.

2016-12-01

Forecast informed reservoir operations (FIRO) is a methodology that incorporates short to mid-range precipitation or flow forecasts to inform the flood operations of reservoirs. Previous research and modeling for flood control reservoirs has shown that FIRO can reduce flood risk and increase water supply for many reservoirs. The risk-based method of FIRO presents a unique approach that incorporates flow forecasts made by NOAA's California-Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC) to model and assess risk of meeting or exceeding identified management targets or thresholds. Forecasted risk is evaluated against set risk tolerances to set reservoir flood releases. A water management model was developed for Lake Mendocino, a 116,500 acre-foot reservoir located near Ukiah, California. Lake Mendocino is a dual use reservoir, which is owned and operated for flood control by the United State Army Corps of Engineers and is operated by the Sonoma County Water Agency for water supply. Due to recent changes in the operations of an upstream hydroelectric facility, this reservoir has been plagued with water supply reliability issues since 2007. FIRO is applied to Lake Mendocino by simulating daily hydrologic conditions from 1985 to 2010 in the Upper Russian River from Lake Mendocino to the City of Healdsburg approximately 50 miles downstream. The risk-based method is simulated using a 15-day, 61 member streamflow hindcast by the CNRFC. Model simulation results of risk-based flood operations demonstrate a 23% increase in average end of water year (September 30) storage levels over current operations. Model results show no increase in occurrence of flood damages for points downstream of Lake Mendocino. This investigation demonstrates that FIRO may be a viable flood control operations approach for Lake Mendocino and warrants further investigation through additional modeling and analysis.

Flood of September 2008 in Northwestern Indiana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fowler, Kathleen K.; Kim, Moon H.; Menke, Chad D.; Arvin, Donald V.

2010-01-01

During September 12-15, 2008, rainfall ranging from 2 to more than 11 inches fell on northwestern Indiana. The rainfall resulted in extensive flooding on many streams within the Lake Michigan and Kankakee River Basins during September 12-18, causing two deaths, evacuation of hundreds of residents, and millions of dollars of damage to residences, businesses, and infrastructure. In all, six counties in northwestern Indiana were declared Federal disaster areas. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamgages at four locations recorded new record peak streamflows as a result of the heavy rainfall. Peak-gage-height data, peak-streamflow data, annual exceedance probabilities, and recurrence intervals are tabulated in this report for 10 USGS streamgages in northwestern Indiana. Recurrence intervals of flood-peak streamflows were estimated to be greater than 100 years at six streamgages. Because flooding was particularly severe in the communities of Munster, Dyer, Hammond, Highland, Gary, Lake Station, Hobart, Schererville, Merrillville, Michiana Shores, and Portage, high-water-park data collected after the flood were tabulated for those communities. Flood peak inundation maps and water-surface profiles for selected streams were made in a geographic information system by combining high-water-mark data with the highest resolution digital elevation model data available.

An X-ray outburst from the rapidly accreting young star that illuminates McNeil's nebula.

PubMed

Kastner, J H; Richmond, M; Grosso, N; Weintraub, D A; Simon, T; Frank, A; Hamaguchi, K; Ozawa, H; Henden, A

2004-07-22

Young, low-mass stars are luminous X-ray sources whose powerful X-ray flares may exert a profound influence over the process of planet formation. The origin of the X-ray emission is uncertain. Although many (or perhaps most) recently formed, low-mass stars emit X-rays as a consequence of solar-like coronal activity, it has also been suggested that X-ray emission may be a direct result of mass accretion onto the forming star. Here we report X-ray imaging spectroscopy observations which reveal a factor approximately 50 increase in the X-ray flux from a young star that is at present undergoing a spectacular optical/infrared outburst (this star illuminates McNeil's nebula). The outburst seems to be due to the sudden onset of a phase of rapid accretion. The coincidence of a surge in X-ray brightness with the optical/infrared eruption demonstrates that strongly enhanced high-energy emission from young stars can occur as a consequence of high accretion rates. We suggest that such accretion-enhanced X-ray emission from erupting young stars may be short-lived, because intense star-disk magnetospheric interactions are quenched rapidly by the subsequent flood of new material onto the star.

Automatic Boosted Flood Mapping from Satellite Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coltin, Brian; McMichael, Scott; Smith, Trey; Fong, Terrence

2016-01-01

Numerous algorithms have been proposed to map floods from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery. However, most require human input to succeed, either to specify a threshold value or to manually annotate training data. We introduce a new algorithm based on Adaboost which effectively maps floods without any human input, allowing for a truly rapid and automatic response. The Adaboost algorithm combines multiple thresholds to achieve results comparable to state-of-the-art algorithms which do require human input. We evaluate Adaboost, as well as numerous previously proposed flood mapping algorithms, on multiple MODIS flood images, as well as on hundreds of non-flood MODIS lake images, demonstrating its effectiveness across a wide variety of conditions.

Dynamics during outburst. VLTI observations of the young eruptive star V1647 Orionis during its 2003-2006 outburst

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mosoni, L.; Sipos, N.; Ábrahám, P.; Moór, A.; Kóspál, Á.; Henning, Th.; Juhász, A.; Kun, M.; Leinert, Ch.; Quanz, S. P.; Ratzka, Th.; Schegerer, A. A.; van Boekel, R.; Wolf, S.

2013-04-01

Context. It is hypothesized that low-mass young stellar objects undergo eruptive phases during their early evolution. These eruptions are thought to be caused by highly increased mass accretion from the disk onto the star, and therefore play an important role in the early evolution of Sun-like stars, of their circumstellar disks (structure, dust composition), and in the formation of their planetary systems. The outburst of V1647 Ori between 2003 and 2006 offered a rare opportunity to investigate such an accretion event. Aims: By means of our interferometry observing campaign during this outburst, supplemented by other observations, we investigate the temporal evolution of the inner circumstellar structure of V1647 Ori, the region where Earth-like planets could be born. We also study the role of the changing extinction in the brightening of the object and separate it from the accretional brightening. Methods: We observed V1647 Ori with MIDI on the VLTI at two epochs in this outburst. First, during the slowly fading plateau phase (2005 March) and second, just before the rapid fading of the object (2005 September), which ended the outburst. We used the radiative transfer code MC3D to fit the interferometry data and the spectral energy distributions from five different epochs at different stages of the outburst. The comparison of these models allowed us to trace structural changes in the system on AU-scales. We also considered qualitative alternatives for the interpretation of our data. Results: We found that the disk and the envelope are similar to those of non-eruptive young stars and that the accretion rate varied during the outburst. We also found evidence for the increase of the inner radii of the circumstellar disk and envelope at the beginning of the outburst. Furthermore, the change of the interferometric visibilities indicates structural changes in the circumstellar material. We test a few scenarios to interpret these data. We also speculate that the changes

Paleoecology of a Northern Michigan Lake and the relationship among climate, vegetation, and Great Lakes water levels

USGS Publications Warehouse

Booth, R.K.; Jackson, S.T.; Thompson, T.A.

2002-01-01

We reconstructed Holocene water-level and vegetation dynamics based on pollen and plant macrofossils from a coastal lake in Upper Michigan. Our primary objective was to test the hypothesis that major fluctuations in Great Lakes water levels resulted in part from climatic changes. We also used our data to provide temporal constraints to the mid-Holocene dry period in Upper Michigan. From 9600 to 8600 cal yr B.P. a shallow, lacustrine environment characterized the Mud Lake basin. A Sphagnum-dominated wetland occupied the basin during the mid-Holocene dry period (???8600 to 6600 cal yr B.P.). The basin flooded at 6600 cal yr B.P. as a result of rising water levels associated with the onset of the Nipissing I phase of ancestral Lake Superior. This flooding event occured contemporaneously with a well-documented regional expansion of Tsuga. Betula pollen increased during the Nipissing II phase (4500 cal yr B.P.). Macrofossil evidence from Mud Lake suggests that Betula alleghaniensis expansion was primarily responsible for the rising Betula pollen percentages. Major regional and local vegetational changes were associated with all the major Holocene highstands of the western Great Lakes (Nipissing I, Nipissing II, and Algoma). Traditional interpretations of Great Lakes water-level history should be revised to include a major role of climate. ?? 2002 University of Washington.

Spring Flooding on the Mississippi

NASA Image and Video Library

2001-07-11

The mighty Mississippi River, from its source at Lake Itasca, Minnesota to the Gulf of Mexico, is approximately 3780 kilometers long and has flooded many times during its history. NASA Terra satellite acquired these images one month apart in 2001.

Flood-inundation maps for the Saluda River from Old Easley Bridge Road to Saluda Lake Dam near Greenville, South Carolina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Benedict, Stephen T.; Caldwell, Andral W.; Clark, Jimmy M.

2013-01-01

Digital flood-inundation maps for a 3.95-mile reach of the Saluda River from approximately 815 feet downstream from Old Easley Bridge Road to approximately 150 feet downstream from Saluda Lake Dam near Greenville, South Carolina, were developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science Web site at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/, depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at the USGS streamgage at Saluda River near Greenville, South Carolina (station 02162500). Current conditions at the USGS streamgage may be obtained through the National Water Information System Web site at http://waterdata.usgs.gov/sc/nwis/uv/?site_no=02162500&PARAmeter_cd=00065,00060,00062. The National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts flood hydrographs at many places that are often collocated with USGS streamgages. Forecasted peak-stage information is available on the Internet at the NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) flood-warning system Web site (http://water.weather.gov/ahps/) and may be used in conjunction with the maps developed in this study to show predicted areas of flood inundation.In this study, flood profiles were computed for the stream reach by means of a one-dimensional step-backwater model. The model was calibrated using the most current stage-streamflow relations at USGS streamgage station 02162500, Saluda River near Greenville, South Carolina. The hydraulic model was then used to determine water-surface profiles for flood stages at 1.0-foot intervals referenced to the streamgage datum and ranging from approximately bankfull to 2 feet higher than the highest recorded water level at the streamgage. The simulated water-surface profiles were then exported to a geographic information system, ArcGIS, and combined with a digital elevation model (derived from Light Detection and Ranging [LiDAR] data with a 0

Unusual ``Stunted'' Outbursts in Old Novae and Nova-Like Cataclysmic Variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Honeycutt, R. K.; Robertson, J. W.; Turner, G. W.

1998-06-01

Outbursts averaging 0.6 mag in amplitude and 10 days in width are described in five old novae and nova-like cataclysmic variables: UU Aqr, Q Cyg, CP Lac, X Ser, and RW Sex. These stars are thought to be high mass transfer rate systems for which the accretion disk is expected to be stable against the thermal instability responsible for dwarf nova outbursts. The widths and spacings of these events are similar to those of dwarf nova eruptions, but the amplitudes are significantly smaller, or ``stunted.'' The outbursts are sometimes accompanied by dips. These dips have amplitudes that are similar to the outbursts' but have shapes that scatter significantly more than the shapes of the outbursts. The outbursts and dips sometimes occur as pairs and are sometimes isolated. We are not able at this time to determine a single common mechanism for this behavior, or even to conclude that some mechanisms are preferred. Rather, we characterize these phenomena with regard to outburst shapes and frequency of occurrence and explore a range of possible causes, including truncated disks, mass transfer modulations, and Z Camelopardalis type behavior. Arguments are assembled for and against such possible mechanisms, and key observations are suggested. It appears unlikely that accretion disk instabilities are the single common cause of these phenomena, and we are left with either a combination of accretion disk and mass transfer events or a situation in which mass transfer events are somehow responsible for all these varied behaviors.

Hydrology of Lake Tohopekaliga, Osceola County, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Phelps, G.G.

1982-01-01

Lake Tohopekaliga, one of the major lakes in central Florida, provides flood control in the upper Kissimmee River basin, recreation for fishermen and boaters, water for live-stock, esthetic surroundings for homesites, and serves as a receiving body for treated effluent from municipal sewage treatment plants. The purpose of this map report is to provide a general reconnaissance of the lake, based primarily on existing geologic , hydrologic and water-quality data. The lake has a surface area of about 30 square miles and a mean depth of about 5 feet. Maximum depth measured was about 13 feet. Inflow to the lake comes from Shingle Creek and St. Cloud canal and outflow is through the South-port canal. Regulation of lake levels for flood control began in the early 1960 's and has resulted in a decrease in the range of lake stage of about 3 feet. Concentrations of pesticide residues in lake bottom sediments do not appear to have increased from 1972 to 1980. The lake has abundant aquatic vegetation, the amount and extent of which varies with fluctuating water levels. Water-quality data collected between 1954-77 are summarized in the report and additional data collected in 1980 are also shown. The range of plant nutrient concentrations measured in May 1980 are: Total organic nitrogen 0.71-2.2 milligrams per liter. Most water-quality parameters vary from one area of the lake to another because of restricted areal circulation due to the shape of the lake. (USGS)