Repeated Habitat Disturbances by Fire Decrease Local Effective Population Size.

PubMed

Schrey, Aaron W; Ragsdale, Alexandria K; McCoy, Earl D; Mushinsky, Henry R

2016-07-01

Effective population size is a fundamental parameter in population genetics, and factors that alter effective population size will shape the genetic characteristics of populations. Habitat disturbance may have a large effect on genetic characteristics of populations by influencing immigration and gene flow, particularly in fragmented habitats. We used the Florida Sand Skink (Plestiodon reynoldsi) to investigate the effect of fire-based habitat disturbances on the effective population size in the highly threatened, severely fragmented, and fire dependent Florida scrub habitat. We screened 7 microsatellite loci in 604 individuals collected from 12 locations at Archbold Biological Station. Archbold Biological Station has an active fire management plan and detailed records of fires dating to 1967. Our objective was to determine how the timing, number, and intervals between fires affect effective population size, focusing on multiple fires in the same location. Effective population size was higher in areas that had not been burned for more than 10 years and decreased with number of fires and shorter time between fires. A similar pattern was observed in abundance: increasing abundance with time-since-fire and decreasing abundance with number of fires. The ratio of effective population size to census size was higher at sites with more recent fires and tended to decrease with time-since-last-fire. These results suggest that habitat disturbances, such as fire, may have a large effect in the genetic characteristics of local populations and that Florida Sand Skinks are well adapted to the natural fire dynamics required to maintain Florida scrub. © The American Genetic Association. 2016. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The role of weak selection and high mutation rates in nearly neutral evolution.

PubMed

Lawson, Daniel John; Jensen, Henrik Jeldtoft

2009-04-21

Neutral dynamics occur in evolution if all types are 'effectively equal' in their reproductive success, where the definition of 'effectively equal' depends on the population size and the details of mutations. Empirically observed neutral genetic evolution in extremely large clonal populations can only be explained under current models if selection is completely absent. Such models typically consider the case where population dynamics occurs on a different timescale to evolution. However, this assumption is invalid when mutations are not rare in a whole population. We show that this has important consequences for the occurrence of neutral evolution in clonal populations. In highly connected type spaces, neutral dynamics can occur for all population sizes despite significant selective differences, via the forming of effectively neutral networks connecting rare neutral types. Biological implications include an explanation for the high diversity of rare types that survive in large clonal populations, and a theoretical justification for the use of neutral null models.

Similar Genetic Architecture with Shared and Unique Quantitative Trait Loci for Bacterial Cold Water Disease Resistance in Two Rainbow Trout Breeding Populations

PubMed Central

Vallejo, Roger L.; Liu, Sixin; Gao, Guangtu; Fragomeni, Breno O.; Hernandez, Alvaro G.; Leeds, Timothy D.; Parsons, James E.; Martin, Kyle E.; Evenhuis, Jason P.; Welch, Timothy J.; Wiens, Gregory D.; Palti, Yniv

2017-01-01

Bacterial cold water disease (BCWD) causes significant mortality and economic losses in salmonid aquaculture. In previous studies, we identified moderate-large effect quantitative trait loci (QTL) for BCWD resistance in rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss). However, the recent availability of a 57 K SNP array and a reference genome assembly have enabled us to conduct genome-wide association studies (GWAS) that overcome several experimental limitations from our previous work. In the current study, we conducted GWAS for BCWD resistance in two rainbow trout breeding populations using two genotyping platforms, the 57 K Affymetrix SNP array and restriction-associated DNA (RAD) sequencing. Overall, we identified 14 moderate-large effect QTL that explained up to 60.8% of the genetic variance in one of the two populations and 27.7% in the other. Four of these QTL were found in both populations explaining a substantial proportion of the variance, although major differences were also detected between the two populations. Our results confirm that BCWD resistance is controlled by the oligogenic inheritance of few moderate-large effect loci and a large-unknown number of loci each having a small effect on BCWD resistance. We detected differences in QTL number and genome location between two GWAS models (weighted single-step GBLUP and Bayes B), which highlights the utility of using different models to uncover QTL. The RAD-SNPs detected a greater number of QTL than the 57 K SNP array in one population, suggesting that the RAD-SNPs may uncover polymorphisms that are more unique and informative for the specific population in which they were discovered. PMID:29109734

Similar Genetic Architecture with Shared and Unique Quantitative Trait Loci for Bacterial Cold Water Disease Resistance in Two Rainbow Trout Breeding Populations.

PubMed

Vallejo, Roger L; Liu, Sixin; Gao, Guangtu; Fragomeni, Breno O; Hernandez, Alvaro G; Leeds, Timothy D; Parsons, James E; Martin, Kyle E; Evenhuis, Jason P; Welch, Timothy J; Wiens, Gregory D; Palti, Yniv

2017-01-01

Bacterial cold water disease (BCWD) causes significant mortality and economic losses in salmonid aquaculture. In previous studies, we identified moderate-large effect quantitative trait loci (QTL) for BCWD resistance in rainbow trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ). However, the recent availability of a 57 K SNP array and a reference genome assembly have enabled us to conduct genome-wide association studies (GWAS) that overcome several experimental limitations from our previous work. In the current study, we conducted GWAS for BCWD resistance in two rainbow trout breeding populations using two genotyping platforms, the 57 K Affymetrix SNP array and restriction-associated DNA (RAD) sequencing. Overall, we identified 14 moderate-large effect QTL that explained up to 60.8% of the genetic variance in one of the two populations and 27.7% in the other. Four of these QTL were found in both populations explaining a substantial proportion of the variance, although major differences were also detected between the two populations. Our results confirm that BCWD resistance is controlled by the oligogenic inheritance of few moderate-large effect loci and a large-unknown number of loci each having a small effect on BCWD resistance. We detected differences in QTL number and genome location between two GWAS models (weighted single-step GBLUP and Bayes B), which highlights the utility of using different models to uncover QTL. The RAD-SNPs detected a greater number of QTL than the 57 K SNP array in one population, suggesting that the RAD-SNPs may uncover polymorphisms that are more unique and informative for the specific population in which they were discovered.

Canine parvovirus effect on wolf population change and pup survival

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mech, L.D.; Goyal, S.M.

1993-01-01

Canine parvovirus infected wild canids more than a decade ago, but no population effect has been documented. In wild Minnesota wolves (Canis lupus) over a 12-yr period, the annual percent population increase and proportion of pups each were inversely related to the percentage of wolves serologically positive to the disease. Although these effects did not seem to retard this large extant population, similar relationships in more isolated wolf populations might hinder recovery of this endangered and threatened species.

Warfare and wildlife declines in Africa's protected areas.

PubMed

Daskin, Joshua H; Pringle, Robert M

2018-01-18

Large-mammal populations are ecological linchpins, and their worldwide decline and extinction disrupts many ecosystem functions and services. Reversal of this trend will require an understanding of the determinants of population decline, to enable more accurate predictions of when and where collapses will occur and to guide the development of effective conservation and restoration policies. Many correlates of large-mammal declines are known, including low reproductive rates, overhunting, and habitat destruction. However, persistent uncertainty about the effects of one widespread factor-armed conflict-complicates conservation-planning and priority-setting efforts. Case studies have revealed that conflict can have either positive or negative local impacts on wildlife, but the direction and magnitude of its net effect over large spatiotemporal scales have not previously been quantified. Here we show that conflict frequency predicts the occurrence and severity of population declines among wild large herbivores in African protected areas from 1946 to 2010. Conflict was extensive during this period, occurring in 71% of protected areas, and conflict frequency was the single most important predictor of wildlife population trends among the variables that we analysed. Population trajectories were stable in peacetime, fell significantly below replacement with only slight increases in conflict frequency (one conflict-year per two-to-five decades), and were almost invariably negative in high-conflict sites, both in the full 65-year dataset and in an analysis restricted to recent decades (1989-2010). Yet total population collapse was infrequent, indicating that war-torn faunas can often recover. Human population density was also correlated (positively) with wildlife population trajectories in recent years; however, we found no significant effect, in either timespan, of species body mass, protected-area size, conflict intensity (human fatalities), drought frequency, presence of extractable mineral resources, or various metrics of development and governance. Our results suggest that sustained conservation activity in conflict zones-and rapid interventions following ceasefires-may help to save many at-risk populations and species.

Distribution of Usutu Virus in Germany and Its Effect on Breeding Bird Populations

PubMed Central

Jöst, Hanna; Cadar, Daniel; Thomas, Stephanie Margarete; Bosch, Stefan; Tannich, Egbert; Becker, Norbert; Ziegler, Ute; Lachmann, Lars; Schmidt-Chanasit, Jonas

2017-01-01

Usutu virus (USUV) is an emerging mosquitoborne flavivirus with an increasing number of reports from several countries in Europe, where USUV infection has caused high avian mortality rates. However, 20 years after the first observed outbreak of USUV in Europe, there is still no reliable assessment of the large-scale impact of USUV outbreaks on bird populations. In this study, we identified the areas suitable for USUV circulation in Germany and analyzed the effects of USUV on breeding bird populations. We calculated the USUV-associated additional decline of common blackbird (Turdus merula) populations as 15.7% inside USUV-suitable areas but found no significant effect for the other 14 common bird species investigated. Our results show that the emergence of USUV is a further threat for birds in Europe and that the large-scale impact on population levels, at least for common blackbirds, must be considered. PMID:29148399

Cryptic herbivores mediate the strength and form of ungulate impacts on a long-lived savanna tree.

PubMed

Maclean, Janet E; Goheen, Jacob R; Doak, Daniel F; Palmer, Todd M; Young, Truman P

2011-08-01

Plant populations are regulated by a diverse array of herbivores that impose demographic filters throughout their life cycle. Few studies, however, simultaneously quantify the impacts of multiple herbivore guilds on the lifetime performance or population growth rate of plants. In African savannas, large ungulates (such as elephants) are widely regarded as important drivers of woody plant population dynamics, while the potential impacts of smaller, more cryptic herbivores (such as rodents) have largely been ignored. We combined a large-scale ungulate exclusion experiment with a five-year manipulation of rodent densities to quantify the impacts of three herbivore guilds (wild ungulates, domestic cattle, and rodents) on all life stages of a widespread savanna tree. We utilized demographic modeling to reveal the overall role of each guild in regulating tree population dynamics, and to elucidate the importance of different demographic hurdles in driving population growth under contrasting consumer communities. We found that wild ungulates dramatically reduced population growth, shifting the population trajectory from increase to decline, but that the mechanisms driving these effects were strongly mediated by rodents. The impact of wild ungulates on population growth was predominantly driven by their negative effect on tree reproduction when rodents were excluded, and on adult tree survival when rodents were present. By limiting seedling survival, rodents also reduced population growth; however, this effect was strongly dampened where wild ungulates were present. We suggest that these complex interactions between disparate consumer guilds can have important consequences for the population demography of long-lived species, and that the effects of a single consumer group are often likely to vary dramatically depending on the larger community in which interactions are embedded.

Population control methods in stochastic extinction and outbreak scenarios.

PubMed

Segura, Juan; Hilker, Frank M; Franco, Daniel

2017-01-01

Adaptive limiter control (ALC) and adaptive threshold harvesting (ATH) are two related control methods that have been shown to stabilize fluctuating populations. Large variations in population abundance can threaten the constancy and the persistence stability of ecological populations, which may impede the success and efficiency of managing natural resources. Here, we consider population models that include biological mechanisms characteristic for causing extinctions on the one hand and pest outbreaks on the other hand. These models include Allee effects and the impact of natural enemies (as is typical of forest defoliating insects). We study the impacts of noise and different levels of biological parameters in three extinction and two outbreak scenarios. Our results show that ALC and ATH have an effect on extinction and outbreak risks only for sufficiently large control intensities. Moreover, there is a clear disparity between the two control methods: in the extinction scenarios, ALC can be effective and ATH can be counterproductive, whereas in the outbreak scenarios the situation is reversed, with ATH being effective and ALC being potentially counterproductive.

Variation in pollen limitation and floral parasitism across a mating system transition in a Pacific coastal dune plant: evolutionary causes or ecological consequences?

PubMed

Dart, Sara; Eckert, Christopher G

2015-02-01

Evolutionary transitions from outcrossing to self-fertilization are thought to occur because selfing provides reproductive assurance when pollinators or mates are scarce, but they could also occur via selection to reduce floral vulnerability to herbivores. This study investigated geographic covariation between floral morphology, fruit set, pollen limitation and florivory across the geographic range of Camissoniopsis cheiranthifolia, a Pacific coastal dune endemic that varies strikingly in flower size and mating system. Fruit set was quantified in 75 populations, and in 41 of these floral herbivory by larvae of a specialized moth (Mompha sp.) that consumes anthers in developing buds was also quantified. Experimental pollen supplementation was performed to quantify pollen limitation in three large-flowered, outcrossing and two small-flowered, selfing populations. These parameters were also compared between large- and small-flowered phenotypes within three mixed populations. Fruit set was much lower in large-flowered populations, and also much lower among large- than small-flowered plants within populations. Pollen supplementation increased per flower seed production in large-flowered but not small-flowered populations, but fruit set was not pollen limited. Hence inadequate pollination cannot account for the low fruit set of large-flowered plants. Floral herbivory was much more frequent in large-flowered populations and correlated negatively with fruit set. However, florivores did not preferentially attack large-flowered plants in three large-flowered populations or in two of three mixed populations. Selfing alleviated pollen limitation of seeds per fruit, but florivory better explains the marked variation in fruit set. Although florivory was more frequent in large-flowered populations, large-flowered individuals were not generally more vulnerable within populations. Rather than a causative selective factor, reduced florivory in small-flowered, selfing populations is probably an ecological consequence of mating system differentiation, with potentially significant effects on population demography and biotic interactions. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The Impact of Accelerating Faster than Exponential Population Growth on Genetic Variation

PubMed Central

Reppell, Mark; Boehnke, Michael; Zöllner, Sebastian

2014-01-01

Current human sequencing projects observe an abundance of extremely rare genetic variation, suggesting recent acceleration of population growth. To better understand the impact of such accelerating growth on the quantity and nature of genetic variation, we present a new class of models capable of incorporating faster than exponential growth in a coalescent framework. Our work shows that such accelerated growth affects only the population size in the recent past and thus large samples are required to detect the models’ effects on patterns of variation. When we compare models with fixed initial growth rate, models with accelerating growth achieve very large current population sizes and large samples from these populations contain more variation than samples from populations with constant growth. This increase is driven almost entirely by an increase in singleton variation. Moreover, linkage disequilibrium decays faster in populations with accelerating growth. When we instead condition on current population size, models with accelerating growth result in less overall variation and slower linkage disequilibrium decay compared to models with exponential growth. We also find that pairwise linkage disequilibrium of very rare variants contains information about growth rates in the recent past. Finally, we demonstrate that models of accelerating growth may substantially change estimates of present-day effective population sizes and growth times. PMID:24381333

The impact of accelerating faster than exponential population growth on genetic variation.

PubMed

Reppell, Mark; Boehnke, Michael; Zöllner, Sebastian

2014-03-01

Current human sequencing projects observe an abundance of extremely rare genetic variation, suggesting recent acceleration of population growth. To better understand the impact of such accelerating growth on the quantity and nature of genetic variation, we present a new class of models capable of incorporating faster than exponential growth in a coalescent framework. Our work shows that such accelerated growth affects only the population size in the recent past and thus large samples are required to detect the models' effects on patterns of variation. When we compare models with fixed initial growth rate, models with accelerating growth achieve very large current population sizes and large samples from these populations contain more variation than samples from populations with constant growth. This increase is driven almost entirely by an increase in singleton variation. Moreover, linkage disequilibrium decays faster in populations with accelerating growth. When we instead condition on current population size, models with accelerating growth result in less overall variation and slower linkage disequilibrium decay compared to models with exponential growth. We also find that pairwise linkage disequilibrium of very rare variants contains information about growth rates in the recent past. Finally, we demonstrate that models of accelerating growth may substantially change estimates of present-day effective population sizes and growth times.

Variation in sensitivity of large benthic Foraminifera to the combined effects of ocean warming and local impacts.

PubMed

Prazeres, Martina; Roberts, T Edward; Pandolfi, John M

2017-03-23

Large benthic foraminifera (LBF) are crucial marine calcifiers in coral reefs, and sensitive to environmental changes. Yet, many species successfully colonise a wide range of habitats including highly fluctuating environments. We tested the combined effects of ocean warming, local impacts and different light levels on populations of the common LBF Amphistegina lobifera collected along a cross-shelf gradient of temperature and nutrients fluctuations. We analysed survivorship, bleaching frequency, chlorophyll a content and fecundity. Elevated temperature and nitrate significantly reduced survivorship and fecundity of A. lobifera across populations studied. This pattern was exacerbated when combined with below optimum light levels. Inshore populations showed a consistent resistance to increased temperature and nitrate levels, but all populations studied were significantly affected by light reduction. These findings demonstrated the capacity of some populations of LBF to acclimate to local conditions; nonetheless improvements in local water quality can ultimately ameliorate effects of climate change in local LBF populations.

Long-term demographic consequences of habitat fragmentation to a tropical understory bird community

USGS Publications Warehouse

Korfanta, N.M.; Newmark, W.D.; Kauffman, M.J.

2012-01-01

Tropical deforestation continues to cause population declines and local extinctions in centers of avian diversity and endemism. Although local species extinctions stem from reductions in demographic rates, little is known about how habitat fragmentation influences survival of tropical bird populations or the relative importance of survival and fecundity in ultimately shaping communities. We analyzed 22 years of mark-recapture data to assess how fragmentation influenced apparent survival, recruitment, and realized population growth rate within 22 forest understory bird species in the Usambara Mountains, Tanzania. This represents the first such effort, in either tropical or temperate systems, to characterize the effect of deforestation on avian survival across such a broad suite of species. Long-term demographic analysis of this suite of species experiencing the same fragmented environment revealed considerable variability in species' responses to fragmentation, in addition to general patterns that emerged from comparison among species. Across the understory bird community as a whole, we found significantly lower apparent survival and realized population growth rate in small fragments relative to large, demonstrating fragmentation effects to demographic rates long after habitat loss. Demographic rates were depressed across five feeding guilds, suggesting that fragmentation sensitivity was not limited to insectivores. Seniority analyses, together with a positive effect of fragmentation on recruitment, indicated that depressed apparent survival was the primary driver of population declines and observed extinctions. We also found a landscape effect, with lower vital rates in one mountain range relative to another, suggesting that fragmentation effects may add to other large-scale drivers of population decline. Overall, realized population growth rate (λ) estimates were < 1 for most species, suggesting that future population persistence even within large forest fragments is uncertain in this biodiversity hotspot.

Mutation Bias Favors Protein Folding Stability in the Evolution of Small Populations

PubMed Central

Porto, Markus; Bastolla, Ugo

2010-01-01

Mutation bias in prokaryotes varies from extreme adenine and thymine (AT) in obligatory endosymbiotic or parasitic bacteria to extreme guanine and cytosine (GC), for instance in actinobacteria. GC mutation bias deeply influences the folding stability of proteins, making proteins on the average less hydrophobic and therefore less stable with respect to unfolding but also less susceptible to misfolding and aggregation. We study a model where proteins evolve subject to selection for folding stability under given mutation bias, population size, and neutrality. We find a non-neutral regime where, for any given population size, there is an optimal mutation bias that maximizes fitness. Interestingly, this optimal GC usage is small for small populations, large for intermediate populations and around 50% for large populations. This result is robust with respect to the definition of the fitness function and to the protein structures studied. Our model suggests that small populations evolving with small GC usage eventually accumulate a significant selective advantage over populations evolving without this bias. This provides a possible explanation to the observation that most species adopting obligatory intracellular lifestyles with a consequent reduction of effective population size shifted their mutation spectrum towards AT. The model also predicts that large GC usage is optimal for intermediate population size. To test these predictions we estimated the effective population sizes of bacterial species using the optimal codon usage coefficients computed by dos Reis et al. and the synonymous to non-synonymous substitution ratio computed by Daubin and Moran. We found that the population sizes estimated in these ways are significantly smaller for species with small and large GC usage compared to species with no bias, which supports our prediction. PMID:20463869

Impact of stochasticity in immigration and reintroduction on colonizing and extirpating populations.

PubMed

Rajakaruna, Harshana; Potapov, Alexei; Lewis, Mark

2013-05-01

A thorough quantitative understanding of populations at the edge of extinction is needed to manage both invasive and extirpating populations. Immigration can govern the population dynamics when the population levels are low. It increases the probability of a population establishing (or reestablishing) before going extinct (EBE). However, the rate of immigration can be highly fluctuating. Here, we investigate how the stochasticity in immigration impacts the EBE probability for small populations in variable environments. We use a population model with an Allee effect described by a stochastic differential equation (SDE) and employ the Fokker-Planck diffusion approximation to quantify the EBE probability. We find that, the effect of the stochasticity in immigration on the EBE probability depends on both the intrinsic growth rate (r) and the mean rate of immigration (p). In general, if r is large and positive (e.g. invasive species introduced to favorable habitats), or if p is greater than the rate of population decline due to the demographic Allee effect (e.g., effective stocking of declining populations), then the stochasticity in immigration decreases the EBE probability. If r is large and negative (e.g. endangered populations in unfavorable habitats), or if the rate of decline due to the demographic Allee effect is much greater than p (e.g., weak stocking of declining populations), then the stochasticity in immigration increases the EBE probability. However, the mean time for EBE decreases with the increasing stochasticity in immigration with both positive and negative large r. Thus, results suggest that ecological management of populations involves a tradeoff as to whether to increase or decrease the stochasticity in immigration in order to optimize the desired outcome. Moreover, the control of invasive species spread through stochastic means, for example, by stochastic monitoring and treatment of vectors such as ship-ballast water, may be suitable strategies given the environmental and demographic uncertainties at introductions. Similarly, the recovery of declining and extirpated populations through stochastic stocking, translocation, and reintroduction, may also be suitable strategies. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effects of Large-Scale Releases on the Genetic Structure of Red Sea Bream (Pagrus major, Temminck et Schlegel) Populations in Japan.

PubMed

Blanco Gonzalez, Enrique; Aritaki, Masato; Knutsen, Halvor; Taniguchi, Nobuhiko

2015-01-01

Large-scale hatchery releases are carried out for many marine fish species worldwide; nevertheless, the long-term effects of this practice on the genetic structure of natural populations remains unclear. The lack of knowledge is especially evident when independent stock enhancement programs are conducted simultaneously on the same species at different geographical locations, as occurs with red sea bream (Pagrus major, Temminck et Schlegel) in Japan. In this study, we examined the putative effects of intensive offspring releases on the genetic structure of red sea bream populations along the Japanese archipelago by genotyping 848 fish at fifteen microsatellite loci. Our results suggests weak but consistent patterns of genetic divergence (F(ST) = 0.002, p < 0.001). Red sea bream in Japan appeared spatially structured with several patches of distinct allelic composition, which corresponded to areas receiving an important influx of fish of hatchery origin, either released intentionally or from unintentional escapees from aquaculture operations. In addition to impacts upon local populations inhabiting semi-enclosed embayments, large-scale releases (either intentionally or from unintentional escapes) appeared also to have perturbed genetic structure in open areas. Hence, results of the present study suggest that independent large-scale marine stock enhancement programs conducted simultaneously on one species at different geographical locations may compromise native genetic structure and lead to patchy patterns in population genetic structure.

Modeling the Fear Effect in Predator-Prey Interactions with Adaptive Avoidance of Predators.

PubMed

Wang, Xiaoying; Zou, Xingfu

2017-06-01

Recent field experiments on vertebrates showed that the mere presence of a predator would cause a dramatic change of prey demography. Fear of predators increases the survival probability of prey, but leads to a cost of prey reproduction. Based on the experimental findings, we propose a predator-prey model with the cost of fear and adaptive avoidance of predators. Mathematical analyses show that the fear effect can interplay with maturation delay between juvenile prey and adult prey in determining the long-term population dynamics. A positive equilibrium may lose stability with an intermediate value of delay and regain stability if the delay is large. Numerical simulations show that both strong adaptation of adult prey and the large cost of fear have destabilizing effect while large population of predators has a stabilizing effect on the predator-prey interactions. Numerical simulations also imply that adult prey demonstrates stronger anti-predator behaviors if the population of predators is larger and shows weaker anti-predator behaviors if the cost of fear is larger.

Computer simulation of vasectomy for wolf control

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haight, R.G.; Mech, L.D.

1997-01-01

Recovering gray wolf (Canis lupus) populations in the Lake Superior region of the United States are prompting state management agencies to consider strategies to control population growth. In addition to wolf removal, vasectomy has been proposed. To predict the population effects of different sterilization and removal strategies, we developed a simulation model of wolf dynamics using simple rules for demography and dispersal. Simulations suggested that the effects of vasectomy and removal in a disjunct population depend largely on the degree of annual immigration. With low immigration, periodic sterilization reduced pup production and resulted in lower rates of territory recolonization. Consequently, average pack size, number of packs, and population size were significantly less than those for an untreated population. Periodically removing a proportion of the population produced roughly the same trends as did sterilization; however, more than twice as many wolves had to be removed than sterilized. With high immigration, periodic sterilization reduced pup production but not territory recolonization and produced only moderate reductions in population size relative to an untreated population. Similar reductions in population size were obtained by periodically removing large numbers of wolves. Our analysis does not address the possible effects of vasectomy on larger wolf populations, but it suggests that the subject should be considered through modeling or field testing.

Effectiveness of an image-based sorter to select for kernel color within early segregating hard winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) populations

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Effective mass selection tools are needed to enrich hard winter wheat breeding populations from red wheat × white wheat crosses while maintaining large population sizes in early breeding generations. Tools also are needed to select for white-seeded genotypes or to eliminate white-seeded genotypes wh...

Nonleaky Population Transfer in a Transmon Qutrit via Largely-Detuned Drivings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Run-Ying; Feng, Zhi-Bo

2018-06-01

We propose an efficient scheme to implement nonleaky population transfer in a transmon qutrit via largely-detuned drivings. Due to weak level anharmonicity of the transmon system, the remarkable quantum leakages need to be considered in quantum coherent operations. Under the conditions of two-photon resonance and large detunings, the robust population transfer within a qutrit can be implemented via the technique of stimulated Raman adiabatic passage. Based on the accessible parameters, the feasible approach can remove the leakage error effectively, and then provides a potential approach for enhancing the transfer fidelity with transmon-regime artificial atoms experimentally.

Evolutionary Dynamics of Fearfulness and Boldness: A Stochastic Simulation Model

PubMed Central

Lu, Nan; Ji, Ting; Zhang, Jia-Hua; Sun, Yue-Hua; Tao, Yi

2012-01-01

A stochastic simulation model is investigated for the evolution of anti-predator behavior in birds. The main goal is to reveal the effects of population size, predation threats, and energy lost per escape on the evolutionary dynamics of fearfulness and boldness. Two pure strategies, fearfulness and boldness, are assumed to have different responses for the predator attacks and nonlethal disturbance. On the other hand, the co-existence mechanism of fearfulness and boldness is also considered. For the effects of total population size, predation threats, and energy lost per escape, our main results show that: (i) the fearful (bold) individuals will be favored in a small (large) population, i.e. in a small (large) population, the fearfulness (boldness) can be considered to be an ESS; (ii) in a population with moderate size, fearfulness would be favored under moderate predator attacks; and (iii) although the total population size is the most important factor for the evolutionary dynamics of both fearful and bold individuals, the small energy lost per escape enables the fearful individuals to have the ability to win the advantage even in a relatively large population. Finally, we show also that the co-existence of fearful and bold individuals is possible when the competitive interactions between individuals are introduced. PMID:22412859

Evolutionary dynamics of fearfulness and boldness: a stochastic simulation model.

PubMed

Lu, Nan; Ji, Ting; Zhang, Jia-Hua; Sun, Yue-Hua; Tao, Yi

2012-01-01

A stochastic simulation model is investigated for the evolution of anti-predator behavior in birds. The main goal is to reveal the effects of population size, predation threats, and energy lost per escape on the evolutionary dynamics of fearfulness and boldness. Two pure strategies, fearfulness and boldness, are assumed to have different responses for the predator attacks and nonlethal disturbance. On the other hand, the co-existence mechanism of fearfulness and boldness is also considered. For the effects of total population size, predation threats, and energy lost per escape, our main results show that: (i) the fearful (bold) individuals will be favored in a small (large) population, i.e. in a small (large) population, the fearfulness (boldness) can be considered to be an ESS; (ii) in a population with moderate size, fearfulness would be favored under moderate predator attacks; and (iii) although the total population size is the most important factor for the evolutionary dynamics of both fearful and bold individuals, the small energy lost per escape enables the fearful individuals to have the ability to win the advantage even in a relatively large population. Finally, we show also that the co-existence of fearful and bold individuals is possible when the competitive interactions between individuals are introduced.

Decomposing the effect of crime on population changes.

PubMed

Foote, Andrew

2015-04-01

This article estimates the effect of crime on migration rates for counties in U.S. metropolitan areas and makes three contributions to the literature. First, I use administrative data on migration flows between counties, which gives me more precise estimates of population changes than data used in previous studies. Second, I am able to decompose net population changes into gross migration flows in order to identify how individuals respond to crime rate changes. Finally, I include county-level trends so that my identification comes from shocks away from the trend. I find effects that are one-fiftieth the size of the most prominent estimate in the literature; and although the long-run effects are somewhat larger, they are still only approximately one-twentieth as large. I also find that responses to crime rates differ by subgroups, and that increases in crime cause white households to leave the county, with effects almost 10 times as large as for black households.

Effects of Sample Selection Bias on the Accuracy of Population Structure and Ancestry Inference

PubMed Central

Shringarpure, Suyash; Xing, Eric P.

2014-01-01

Population stratification is an important task in genetic analyses. It provides information about the ancestry of individuals and can be an important confounder in genome-wide association studies. Public genotyping projects have made a large number of datasets available for study. However, practical constraints dictate that of a geographical/ethnic population, only a small number of individuals are genotyped. The resulting data are a sample from the entire population. If the distribution of sample sizes is not representative of the populations being sampled, the accuracy of population stratification analyses of the data could be affected. We attempt to understand the effect of biased sampling on the accuracy of population structure analysis and individual ancestry recovery. We examined two commonly used methods for analyses of such datasets, ADMIXTURE and EIGENSOFT, and found that the accuracy of recovery of population structure is affected to a large extent by the sample used for analysis and how representative it is of the underlying populations. Using simulated data and real genotype data from cattle, we show that sample selection bias can affect the results of population structure analyses. We develop a mathematical framework for sample selection bias in models for population structure and also proposed a correction for sample selection bias using auxiliary information about the sample. We demonstrate that such a correction is effective in practice using simulated and real data. PMID:24637351

Genetic effects of habitat restoration in the Laurentian Great Lakes: an assessment of lake sturgeon origin and genetic diversity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jamie Marie Marranca,; Amy Welsh,; Roseman, Edward F.

2015-01-01

Lake sturgeon (Acipenser fulvescens) have experienced significant habitat loss, resulting in reduced population sizes. Three artificial reefs were built in the Huron-Erie corridor in the Great Lakes to replace lost spawning habitat. Genetic data were collected to determine the source and numbers of adult lake sturgeon spawning on the reefs and to determine if the founder effect resulted in reduced genetic diversity. DNA was extracted from larval tail clips and 12 microsatellite loci were amplified. Larval genotypes were then compared to 22 previously studied spawning lake sturgeon populations in the Great Lakes to determine the source of the parental population. The effective number of breeders (Nb) was calculated for each reef cohort. The larval genotypes were then compared to the source population to determine if there were any losses in genetic diversity that are indicative of the founder effect. The St. Clair and Detroit River adult populations were found to be the source parental population for the larvae collected on all three artificial reefs. There were large numbers of contributing adults relative to the number of sampled larvae. There was no significant difference between levels of genetic diversity in the source population and larval samples from the artificial reefs; however, there is some evidence for a genetic bottleneck in the reef populations likely due to the founder effect. Habitat restoration in the Huron-Erie corridor is likely resulting in increased habitat for the large lake sturgeon population in the system and in maintenance of the population's genetic diversity.

Cultural innovations and demographic change.

PubMed

Richerson, Peter J; Boyd, Robert; Bettinger, Robert L

2009-04-01

Demography plays a large role in cultural evolution through its effects on the effective rate of innovation. If we assume that useful inventions are rare, then small isolated societies will have low rates of invention. In small populations, complex technology will tend to be lost as a result of random loss or incomplete transmission (the Tasmanian effect). Large populations have more inventors and are more resistant to loss by chance. If human populations can grow freely, then a population-technology-population positive feedback should occur such that human societies reach a stable growth path on which the rate of growth of technology is limited by the rate of invention. This scenario fits the Holocene to a first approximation, but the late Pleistocene is a great puzzle. Large-brained hominins existed in Africa and west Eurasia for perhaps 150,000 years with, at best, slow rates of technical innovation. The most sophisticated societies of the last glacial period appear after 50,000 years ago and were apparently restricted to west and north-central Eurasia and North Africa. These patterns have no simple, commonly accepted explanation. We argue that increased high-frequency climate change around 70,000-50,000 years ago may have tipped the balance between humans and their competitor-predators, such as lions and wolves, in favor of humans. At the same time, technically sophisticated hunters would tend to overharvest their prey. Perhaps the ephemeral appearance of complex tools and symbolic artifacts in Africa after 100,000 years ago resulted from hunting inventions that allowed human populations to expand temporarily before prey overexploitation led to human population and technology collapse. Sustained human populations of moderate size using distinctively advanced Upper Paleolithic artifacts may have existed in west Eurasia because cold, continental northeastern Eurasia-Beringia acted as a protected reserve for prey populations.

Fatal disease and demographic Allee effect: population persistence and extinction.

PubMed

Friedman, Avner; Yakubu, Abdul-Aziz

2012-01-01

If a healthy stable host population at the disease-free equilibrium is subject to the Allee effect, can a small number of infected individuals with a fatal disease cause the host population to go extinct? That is, does the Allee effect matter at high densities? To answer this question, we use a susceptible-infected epidemic model to obtain model parameters that lead to host population persistence (with or without infected individuals) and to host extinction. We prove that the presence of an Allee effect in host demographics matters even at large population densities. We show that a small perturbation to the disease-free equilibrium can eventually lead to host population extinction. In addition, we prove that additional deaths due to a fatal infectious disease effectively increase the Allee threshold of the host population demographics.

Assessing temporal genetic variation in a cougar population: Influence of harvest and neighboring populations

Treesearch

Rebeca L. Juarez; Michael K. Schwartz; Kristine L. Pilgrim; Daniel J. Thompson; Stephanie A. Tucker; Joshua B. Smith; Jonathan A. Jenks

2016-01-01

The geography of the Black Hills region of South Dakota and Wyoming may limit connectivity for many species. For species with large energetic demands and large home ranges or species at low densities this can create viability concerns. Carnivores in this region, such as cougars (Puma concolor), have the additive effect of natural and human-induced mortality;...

Pre-dispersal predation effect on seed packaging strategies and seed viability.

PubMed

DeSoto, Lucía; Tutor, David; Torices, Rubén; Rodríguez-Echeverría, Susana; Nabais, Cristina

2016-01-01

An increased understanding of intraspecific seed packaging (i.e. seed size/number strategy) variation across different environments may improve current knowledge of the ecological forces that drive seed evolution in plants. In particular, pre-dispersal seed predation may influence seed packaging strategies, triggering a reduction of the resources allocated to undamaged seeds within the preyed fruits. Assessing plant reactions to pre-dispersal seed predation is crucial to a better understanding of predation effects, but the response of plants to arthropod attacks remains unexplored. We have assessed the effect of cone predation on the size and viability of undamaged seeds in populations of Juniperus thurifera with contrasting seed packaging strategies, namely, North African populations with single-large-seeded cones and South European populations with multi-small-seeded cones. Our results show that the incidence of predation was lower on the single-large-seeded African cones than on the multi-small-seeded European ones. Seeds from non-preyed cones were also larger and had a higher germination success than uneaten seeds from preyed cones, but only in populations with multi-seeded cones and in cones attacked by Trisetacus sp., suggesting a differential plastic response to predation. It is possible that pre-dispersal seed predation has been a strong selective pressure in European populations with high cone predation rates, being a process which maintains multi-small-seeded cones and empty seeds as a strategy to save some seeds from predation. Conversely, pre-dispersal predation might not have a strong effect in the African populations with single-large-seeded cones characterized by seed germination and filling rates higher than those in the European populations. Our results indicate that differences in pre-dispersal seed predators and predation levels may affect both selection on and intraspecific variation in seed packaging.

Accuracy of genomic selection models in a large population of open-pollinated families in white spruce

PubMed Central

Beaulieu, J; Doerksen, T; Clément, S; MacKay, J; Bousquet, J

2014-01-01

Genomic selection (GS) is of interest in breeding because of its potential for predicting the genetic value of individuals and increasing genetic gains per unit of time. To date, very few studies have reported empirical results of GS potential in the context of large population sizes and long breeding cycles such as for boreal trees. In this study, we assessed the effectiveness of marker-aided selection in an undomesticated white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) population of large effective size using a GS approach. A discovery population of 1694 trees representative of 214 open-pollinated families from 43 natural populations was phenotyped for 12 wood and growth traits and genotyped for 6385 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) mined in 2660 gene sequences. GS models were built to predict estimated breeding values using all the available SNPs or SNP subsets of the largest absolute effects, and they were validated using various cross-validation schemes. The accuracy of genomic estimated breeding values (GEBVs) varied from 0.327 to 0.435 when the training and the validation data sets shared half-sibs that were on average 90% of the accuracies achieved through traditionally estimated breeding values. The trend was also the same for validation across sites. As expected, the accuracy of GEBVs obtained after cross-validation with individuals of unknown relatedness was lower with about half of the accuracy achieved when half-sibs were present. We showed that with the marker densities used in the current study, predictions with low to moderate accuracy could be obtained within a large undomesticated population of related individuals, potentially resulting in larger gains per unit of time with GS than with the traditional approach. PMID:24781808

Effects of ungulate disturbance and weather variation on Pediocactus winkleri: insights from long-term monitoring

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clark, Deborah J.; Clark, Thomas O.; Duniway, Michael C.; Flagg, Cody B.

2015-01-01

Population dynamics and effects of large ungulate disturbances on Winkler cactus (Pediocactus winkleri K.D. Heil) were documented annually over a 20-year time span at one plot within Capitol Reef National Park, Utah. This cactus species was federally listed as threatened in 1998. The study began in 1995 to gain a better understanding of life history aspects and threats to this species. Data were collected annually in early spring and included diameter, condition, reproductive structures, mortality, recruitment, and disturbance by large ungulates. We used odds ratio and probability model analyses to determine effects of large ungulate trampling and weather on these cacti. During the study, plot population declined by 18%, with trampling of cactus, low precipitation, and cold spring temperatures implicated as causal factors. Precipitation and temperature affected flowering, mortality, and recruitment. Large ungulate disturbances increased mortality and reduced the probability of flowering. These results suggest that large ungulate disturbances and recent climate regimes have had an adverse impact on long-term persistence of this cactus.

Environmental Factors Affecting Large-Bodied Coral Reef Fish Assemblages in the Mariana Archipelago

PubMed Central

Richards, Benjamin L.; Williams, Ivor D.; Vetter, Oliver J.; Williams, Gareth J.

2012-01-01

Large-bodied reef fishes represent an economically and ecologically important segment of the coral reef fish assemblage. Many of these individuals supply the bulk of the reproductive output for their population and have a disproportionate effect on their environment (e.g. as apex predators or bioeroding herbivores). Large-bodied reef fishes also tend to be at greatest risk of overfishing, and their loss can result in a myriad of either cascading (direct) or indirect trophic and other effects. While many studies have investigated habitat characteristics affecting populations of small-bodied reef fishes, few have explored the relationship between large-bodied species and their environment. Here, we describe the distribution of the large-bodied reef fishes in the Mariana Archipelago with an emphasis on the environmental factors associated with their distribution. Of the factors considered in this study, a negative association with human population density showed the highest relative influence on the distribution of large-bodied reef fishes; however, depth, water temperature, and distance to deep water also were important. These findings provide new information on the ecology of large-bodied reef fishes can inform discussions concerning essential fish habitat and ecosystem-based management for these species and highlight important knowledge gaps worthy of additional research. PMID:22384014

Environmental factors affecting large-bodied coral reef fish assemblages in the Mariana Archipelago.

PubMed

Richards, Benjamin L; Williams, Ivor D; Vetter, Oliver J; Williams, Gareth J

2012-01-01

Large-bodied reef fishes represent an economically and ecologically important segment of the coral reef fish assemblage. Many of these individuals supply the bulk of the reproductive output for their population and have a disproportionate effect on their environment (e.g. as apex predators or bioeroding herbivores). Large-bodied reef fishes also tend to be at greatest risk of overfishing, and their loss can result in a myriad of either cascading (direct) or indirect trophic and other effects. While many studies have investigated habitat characteristics affecting populations of small-bodied reef fishes, few have explored the relationship between large-bodied species and their environment. Here, we describe the distribution of the large-bodied reef fishes in the Mariana Archipelago with an emphasis on the environmental factors associated with their distribution. Of the factors considered in this study, a negative association with human population density showed the highest relative influence on the distribution of large-bodied reef fishes; however, depth, water temperature, and distance to deep water also were important. These findings provide new information on the ecology of large-bodied reef fishes can inform discussions concerning essential fish habitat and ecosystem-based management for these species and highlight important knowledge gaps worthy of additional research.

Genetic drift at expanding frontiers promotes gene segregation

PubMed Central

Hallatschek, Oskar; Hersen, Pascal; Ramanathan, Sharad; Nelson, David R.

2007-01-01

Competition between random genetic drift and natural selection play a central role in evolution: Whereas nonbeneficial mutations often prevail in small populations by chance, mutations that sweep through large populations typically confer a selective advantage. Here, however, we observe chance effects during range expansions that dramatically alter the gene pool even in large microbial populations. Initially well mixed populations of two fluorescently labeled strains of Escherichia coli develop well defined, sector-like regions with fractal boundaries in expanding colonies. The formation of these regions is driven by random fluctuations that originate in a thin band of pioneers at the expanding frontier. A comparison of bacterial and yeast colonies (Saccharomyces cerevisiae) suggests that this large-scale genetic sectoring is a generic phenomenon that may provide a detectable footprint of past range expansions. PMID:18056799

Overcoming the dichotomy between open and isolated populations using genomic data from a large European dataset

PubMed Central

Anagnostou, Paolo; Dominici, Valentina; Battaggia, Cinzia; Pagani, Luca; Vilar, Miguel; Wells, R. Spencer; Pettener, Davide; Sarno, Stefania; Boattini, Alessio; Francalacci, Paolo; Colonna, Vincenza; Vona, Giuseppe; Calò, Carla; Destro Bisol, Giovanni; Tofanelli, Sergio

2017-01-01

Human populations are often dichotomized into “isolated” and “open” categories using cultural and/or geographical barriers to gene flow as differential criteria. Although widespread, the use of these alternative categories could obscure further heterogeneity due to inter-population differences in effective size, growth rate, and timing or amount of gene flow. We compared intra and inter-population variation measures combining novel and literature data relative to 87,818 autosomal SNPs in 14 open populations and 10 geographic and/or linguistic European isolates. Patterns of intra-population diversity were found to vary considerably more among isolates, probably due to differential levels of drift and inbreeding. The relatively large effective size estimated for some population isolates challenges the generalized view that they originate from small founding groups. Principal component scores based on measures of intra-population variation of isolated and open populations were found to be distributed along a continuum, with an area of intersection between the two groups. Patterns of inter-population diversity were even closer, as we were able to detect some differences between population groups only for a few multidimensional scaling dimensions. Therefore, different lines of evidence suggest that dichotomizing human populations into open and isolated groups fails to capture the actual relations among their genomic features. PMID:28145502

A call for tiger management using "reserves" of genetic diversity.

PubMed

Bay, Rachael A; Ramakrishnan, Uma; Hadly, Elizabeth A

2014-01-01

Tigers (Panthera tigris), like many large carnivores, are threatened by anthropogenic impacts, primarily habitat loss and poaching. Current conservation plans for tigers focus on population expansion, with the goal of doubling census size in the next 10 years. Previous studies have shown that because the demographic decline was recent, tiger populations still retain a large amount of genetic diversity. Although maintaining this diversity is extremely important to avoid deleterious effects of inbreeding, management plans have yet to consider predictive genetic models. We used coalescent simulations based on previously sequenced mitochondrial fragments (n = 125) from 5 of 6 extant subspecies to predict the population growth needed to maintain current genetic diversity over the next 150 years. We found that the level of gene flow between populations has a large effect on the local population growth necessary to maintain genetic diversity, without which tigers may face decreases in fitness. In the absence of gene flow, we demonstrate that maintaining genetic diversity is impossible based on known demographic parameters for the species. Thus, managing for the genetic diversity of the species should be prioritized over the riskier preservation of distinct subspecies. These predictive simulations provide unique management insights, hitherto not possible using existing analytical methods.

Harvesting Effects, Recovery Mechanisms, and Management Strategies for a Long-Lived and Structural Precious Coral

PubMed Central

Montero-Serra, Ignasi; Linares, Cristina; García, Marina; Pancaldi, Francesca; Frleta-Valić, Maša; Ledoux, Jean-Baptiste; Zuberer, Frederic; Merad, Djamel; Drap, Pierre; Garrabou, Joaquim

2015-01-01

Overexploitation is a major threat for the integrity of marine ecosystems. Understanding the ecological consequences of different extractive practices and the mechanisms underlying the recovery of populations is essential to ensure sustainable management plans. Precious corals are long-lived structural invertebrates, historically overfished, and their conservation is currently a worldwide concern. However, the processes underlying their recovery are poorly known. Here, we examined harvesting effects and recovery mechanisms of red coral Corallium rubrum by analyzing long-term photographic series taken on two populations that were harvested. We compared the relative importance of reproduction and re-growth as drivers of resilience. Harvesting heavily impacted coral populations causing large decreases in biomass and strong size-class distribution shifts towards populations dominated by small colonies. At the end of the study (after 4 and 7 years) only partial recovery was observed. The observed general pattern of low recruitment and high mortality of new recruits demonstrated limited effects of reproduction on population recovery. Adversely, low mortality of partially harvested adults and a large proportion of colonies showing new branches highlighted the importance of re-growth in the recovery process. The demographic projections obtained through stochastic models confirmed that the recovery rates of C. rubrum can be strongly modulated depending on harvesting procedures. Thus, leaving the basal section of the colonies when harvesting to avoid total mortality largely enhances the resilience of C. rubrum populations and quickens their recovery. On the other hand, the high survival of harvested colonies and the significant biomass reduction indicated that abundance may not be an adequate metric to assess the conservation status of clonal organisms because it can underestimate harvesting effects. This study highlights the unsustainability of current harvesting practices of C. rubrum and provides urgently needed data to improve management practices that are still largely based on untested assumptions. PMID:25706556

What Is a Mild Winter? Regional Differences in Within-Species Responses to Climate Change.

PubMed

Vetter, Sebastian G; Ruf, Thomas; Bieber, Claudia; Arnold, Walter

2015-01-01

Climate change is known to affect ecosystems globally, but our knowledge of its impact on large and widespread mammals, and possibly population-specific responses is still sparse. We investigated large-scale and long-term effects of climate change on local population dynamics using the wild boar (Sus scrofa L.) as a model species. Our results show that population increases across Europe are strongly associated with increasingly mild winters, yet with region-specific threshold temperatures for the onset of exponential growth. Additionally, we found that abundant availability of critical food resources, e.g. beech nuts, can outweigh the negative effects of cold winters on population growth of wild boar. Availability of beech nuts is highly variable and highest in years of beech mast which increased in frequency since 1980, according to our data. We conclude that climate change drives population growth of wild boar directly by relaxing the negative effect of cold winters on survival and reproduction, and indirectly by increasing food availability. However, region-specific responses need to be considered in order to fully understand a species' demographic response to climate change.

Comparison of Genetic Structure of Epixylic Liverwort Crossocalyx hellerianus between Central European and Fennoscandian Populations.

PubMed

Holá, Eva; Košnar, Jiří; Kučera, Jan

2015-01-01

Patterns of genetic variation and spatial genetic structure (SGS) were investigated in Crossocalyx hellerianus, a strictly epixylic dioicous liverwort (Scapaniaceae s.l., Marchantiophyta). Studied populations were located in Fennoscandia and Central Europe, with localities differing in availability of substrate and the population connectivity, and their populations consequently different in size, density, and prevailing reproductive mode. A set of nine polymorphic microsatellites was successfully developed and used. Identical individuals were only found within populations. Especially in large populations, the majority of the individuals were genetically unique. Resampled number of genotypes, mean number of observed alleles per locus after rarefaction, and Nei's gene diversity in large populations reached high values and ranged between 4.41-4.97, 3.13-4.45, and 0.94-0.99, respectively. On the contrary, the values in small populations were lower and ranged between 1.00-4.42, 1.00-2.73, and 0.00-0.95, respectively. As expected, large populations were found to be more genetically diverse than small populations but relatively big diversity of genotypes was also found in small populations. This indicated that even small populations are important sources of genetic variation in bryophytes and processes causing loss of genetic variation might be compensated by other sources of variability, of which somatic mutations might play an important role. The presence of SGS was discovered in all populations. Large populations possessed less SGS, with individuals showing a pronounced decrease in kinship over 50 cm of distance. Apparent SGS of small populations even at distances up to 16 meters suggests the aggregation of similar genotypes, caused predominantly by the deposition of asexually formed gemmae. Although no strong kinship was detectable at the distances over 16 meters in both small and large populations, identical genotypes were occasionally detected at longer distances (20-80 m), suggesting effective dispersal of asexual propagules.

Comparison of Genetic Structure of Epixylic Liverwort Crossocalyx hellerianus between Central European and Fennoscandian Populations

PubMed Central

Holá, Eva; Košnar, Jiří; Kučera, Jan

2015-01-01

Patterns of genetic variation and spatial genetic structure (SGS) were investigated in Crossocalyx hellerianus, a strictly epixylic dioicous liverwort (Scapaniaceae s.l., Marchantiophyta). Studied populations were located in Fennoscandia and Central Europe, with localities differing in availability of substrate and the population connectivity, and their populations consequently different in size, density, and prevailing reproductive mode. A set of nine polymorphic microsatellites was successfully developed and used. Identical individuals were only found within populations. Especially in large populations, the majority of the individuals were genetically unique. Resampled number of genotypes, mean number of observed alleles per locus after rarefaction, and Nei’s gene diversity in large populations reached high values and ranged between 4.41–4.97, 3.13–4.45, and 0.94–0.99, respectively. On the contrary, the values in small populations were lower and ranged between 1.00–4.42, 1.00–2.73, and 0.00–0.95, respectively. As expected, large populations were found to be more genetically diverse than small populations but relatively big diversity of genotypes was also found in small populations. This indicated that even small populations are important sources of genetic variation in bryophytes and processes causing loss of genetic variation might be compensated by other sources of variability, of which somatic mutations might play an important role. The presence of SGS was discovered in all populations. Large populations possessed less SGS, with individuals showing a pronounced decrease in kinship over 50 cm of distance. Apparent SGS of small populations even at distances up to 16 meters suggests the aggregation of similar genotypes, caused predominantly by the deposition of asexually formed gemmae. Although no strong kinship was detectable at the distances over 16 meters in both small and large populations, identical genotypes were occasionally detected at longer distances (20–80 m), suggesting effective dispersal of asexual propagules. PMID:26186214

Microbial diversity--insights from population genetics.

PubMed

Mes, Ted H M

2008-01-01

Although many environmental microbial populations are large and genetically diverse, both the level of diversity and the extent to which it is ecologically relevant remain enigmatic. Because the effective (or long-term) population size, N(e), is one of the parameters that determines population genetic diversity, tests and simulations that assume selectively neutral mutations may help to identify the processes that have shaped microbial diversity. Using ecologically important genes, tests of selective neutrality suggest that adaptive as well as non-adaptive types of selection act and that departure from neutrality may be widespread or restricted to small groups of genotypes. Population genetic simulations using population sizes between 10(3) and 10(7) suggest extremely high levels of microbial diversity in environments that sustain large populations. However, census and effective population sizes may differ considerably, and because we know nothing of the evolutionary history of environmental microbial populations, we also have no idea what N(e) of environmental populations is. On the one hand, this reflects our ignorance of the microbial world. On the other hand, the tests and simulations illustrate interactions between microbial diversity and microbial population genetics that should inform our thinking in microbial ecology. Because of the different views on microbial diversity across these disciplines, such interactions are crucial if we are to understand the role of genes in microbial communities.

A hierarchical model for regional analysis of population change using Christmas Bird Count data, with application to the American Black Duck

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, W.A.; Sauer, J.R.; Niven, D.K.

2006-01-01

Analysis of Christmas Bird Count (CBC) data is complicated by the need to account for variation in effort on counts and to provide summaries over large geographic regions. We describe a hierarchical model for analysis of population change using CBC data that addresses these needs. The effect of effort is modeled parametrically, with parameter values varying among strata as identically distributed random effects. Year and site effects are modeled hierarchically, accommodating large regional variation in number of samples and precision of estimates. The resulting model is complex, but a Bayesian analysis can be conducted using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. We analyze CBC data for American Black Ducks (Anas rubripes), a species of considerable management interest that has historically been monitored using winter surveys. Over the interval 1966-2003, Black Duck populations showed distinct regional patterns of population change. The patterns shown by CBC data are similar to those shown by the Midwinter Waterfowl Inventory for the United States.

Mathematics and mallard management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cowardin, L.M.; Johnson, D.H.

1979-01-01

Waterfowl managers can effectively use simple population models to aid in making management decisions. We present a basic model of the change in population size as related to survival and recruitment. A management technique designed to increase survival of mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) by limiting harvest on the Chippewa National Forest, Minnesota, is used to illustrate the application of models in decision making. The analysis suggests that the management technique would be of limited effectiveness. In a 2nd example, the change in mallard population in central North Dakota is related to implementing programs to create dense nesting cover with or without supplementary predator control. The analysis suggests that large tracts of land would be required to achieve a hypothetical management objective of increasing harvest by 50% while maintaining a stable population. Less land would be required if predator reduction were used in combination with cover management, but questions about effectiveness and ecological implications of large scale predator reduction remain unresolved. The use of models as a guide to planning research responsive to the needs of management is illustrated.

High prices for rare species can drive large populations extinct: the anthropogenic Allee effect revisited.

PubMed

Holden, Matthew H; McDonald-Madden, Eve

2017-09-21

Consumer demand for plant and animal products threatens many populations with extinction. The anthropogenic Allee effect (AAE) proposes that such extinctions can be caused by prices for wildlife products increasing with species rarity. This price-rarity relationship creates financial incentives to extract the last remaining individuals of a population, despite higher search and harvest costs. The AAE has become a standard approach for conceptualizing the threat of economic markets on endangered species. Despite its potential importance for conservation, AAE theory is based on a simple graphical model with limited analysis of possible population trajectories. By specifying a general class of functions for price-rarity relationships, we show that the classic theory can understate the risk of species extinction. AAE theory proposes that only populations below a critical Allee threshold will go extinct due to increasing price-rarity relationships. Our analysis shows that this threshold can be much higher than the original theory suggests, depending on initial harvest effort. More alarmingly, even species with population sizes above this Allee threshold, for which AAE predicts persistence, can be destined to extinction. Introducing even a minimum price for harvested individuals, close to zero, can cause large populations to cross the classic anthropogenic Allee threshold on a trajectory towards extinction. These results suggest that traditional AAE theory may give a false sense of security when managing large harvested populations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Demographic and Phenotypic Effects of Human Mediated Trophic Subsidy on a Large Australian Lizard (Varanus varius): Meal Ticket or Last Supper?

PubMed Central

Jessop, Tim S.; Smissen, Peter; Scheelings, Franciscus; Dempster, Tim

2012-01-01

Humans are increasingly subsidizing and altering natural food webs via changes to nutrient cycling and productivity. Where human trophic subsidies are concentrated and persistent within natural environments, their consumption could have complex consequences for wild animals through altering habitat preferences, phenotypes and fitness attributes that influence population dynamics. Human trophic subsidies conceptually create both costs and benefits for animals that receive increased calorific and altered nutritional inputs. Here, we evaluated the effects of a common terrestrial human trophic subsidies, human food refuse, on population and phenotypic (comprising morphological and physiological health indices) parameters of a large predatory lizard (∼2 m length), the lace monitor (Varanus varius), in southern Australia by comparison with individuals not receiving human trophic subsidies. At human trophic subsidies sites, lizards were significantly more abundant and their sex ratio highly male biased compared to control sites in natural forest. Human trophic subsidies recipient lizards were significantly longer, heavier and in much greater body condition. Blood parasites were significantly lower in human trophic subsidies lizards. Collectively, our results imply that human trophic subsidized sites were especially attractive to adult male lace monitors and had large phenotypic effects. However, we cannot rule out that the male-biased aggregations of large monitors at human trophic subsidized sites could lead to reductions in reproductive fitness, through mate competition and offspring survival, and through greater exposure of eggs and juveniles to predation. These possibilities could have negative population consequences. Aggregations of these large predators may also have flow on effects to surrounding food web dynamics through elevated predation levels. Given that flux of energy and nutrients into food webs is central to the regulation of populations and their communities, we advocate further studies of human trophic subsidies be undertaken to evaluate the potentially large ecological implications of this significant human environmental alteration. PMID:22509271

Population of North American elk: effects on plant diversity

Treesearch

Kelley M. Stewart; R. Terry Bowyer; John G. Kier; Brian L. Dick; Roger W. Ruess

2009-01-01

We tested for indirect effects of population density of large herbivores on plant species richness and diversity in a montane ecosystem, where increased net aboveground primary productivity (NAPP) in response to low levels of herbivory has been reported. We documented a positive, linear relationship between plant-species diversity and richness with NAPP. Structural...

Fishery-independent data reveal negative effect of human population density on Caribbean predatory fish communities.

PubMed

Stallings, Christopher D

2009-01-01

Understanding the current status of predatory fish communities, and the effects fishing has on them, is vitally important information for management. However, data are often insufficient at region-wide scales to assess the effects of extraction in coral reef ecosystems of developing nations. Here, I overcome this difficulty by using a publicly accessible, fisheries-independent database to provide a broad scale, comprehensive analysis of human impacts on predatory reef fish communities across the greater Caribbean region. Specifically, this study analyzed presence and diversity of predatory reef fishes over a gradient of human population density. Across the region, as human population density increases, presence of large-bodied fishes declines, and fish communities become dominated by a few smaller-bodied species. Complete disappearance of several large-bodied fishes indicates ecological and local extinctions have occurred in some densely populated areas. These findings fill a fundamentally important gap in our knowledge of the ecosystem effects of artisanal fisheries in developing nations, and provide support for multiple approaches to data collection where they are commonly unavailable.

Fishery-Independent Data Reveal Negative Effect of Human Population Density on Caribbean Predatory Fish Communities

PubMed Central

Stallings, Christopher D.

2009-01-01

Background Understanding the current status of predatory fish communities, and the effects fishing has on them, is vitally important information for management. However, data are often insufficient at region-wide scales to assess the effects of extraction in coral reef ecosystems of developing nations. Methodology/Principal Findings Here, I overcome this difficulty by using a publicly accessible, fisheries-independent database to provide a broad scale, comprehensive analysis of human impacts on predatory reef fish communities across the greater Caribbean region. Specifically, this study analyzed presence and diversity of predatory reef fishes over a gradient of human population density. Across the region, as human population density increases, presence of large-bodied fishes declines, and fish communities become dominated by a few smaller-bodied species. Conclusions/Significance Complete disappearance of several large-bodied fishes indicates ecological and local extinctions have occurred in some densely populated areas. These findings fill a fundamentally important gap in our knowledge of the ecosystem effects of artisanal fisheries in developing nations, and provide support for multiple approaches to data collection where they are commonly unavailable. PMID:19421312

The effects of isolation on the demography and genetic diversity of long-lived species: Implications for conservation and management of the gopher tortoise (Gopherus polyphemus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ennen, J.R.; Birkhead, R.D.; Kreiser, B.R.; Gaillard, D.L.; Qualls, C.P.; Lovich, J.E.

2011-01-01

In the southeastern United States, habitat loss has fragmented the landscape and isolated many populations of this region's flora and fauna, which has presumably resulted in smaller population sizes and reduced levels of genetic diversity. For example, forestry practices and anthropogenic disturbances are both cited as factors fragmenting the once extensive range of Gopherus polyphemus. One localized, but extreme, source of fragmentation was the impoundment of the Chattahoochee River in 1963 to form Walter F. George Reservoir along the border of Georgia and Alabama. The formation of this reservoir isolated populations of G. polyphemus on two newly created islands providing a natural laboratory to explore the demographics and genetic effects of fragmentation on a long-lived species. These populations were first surveyed in 1984 and, 21 years later, we revisited them to collect demographic data and tissue samples for genetic analysis. We genotyped all individuals for 10 microsatellite loci, and we tested these data for bottlenecks and compared them to levels of genetic diversity for populations from other portions of the range. We found 45 and two individuals on the larger and smaller islands, respectively. On the large island, however, the population size was identical to the 1984 survey. Only the population structure based on estimated age differed between the 1984 and 2004 surveys, while population size structure based on carapace length, sex ratio, and sex-specific growth rates did not differ. The population of the large island showed genetic evidence of a past bottleneck. The genetic diversity indices from the population of the large island, however, were comparable to or greater than those found at mainland sites, in particular from western populations.

MaCH-Admix: Genotype Imputation for Admixed Populations

PubMed Central

Liu, Eric Yi; Li, Mingyao; Wang, Wei; Li, Yun

2012-01-01

Imputation in admixed populations is an important problem but challenging due to the complex linkage disequilibrium (LD) pattern. The emergence of large reference panels such as that from the 1,000 Genomes Project enables more accurate imputation in general, and in particular for admixed populations and for uncommon variants. To efficiently benefit from these large reference panels, one key issue to consider in modern genotype imputation framework is the selection of effective reference panels. In this work, we consider a number of methods for effective reference panel construction inside a hidden Markov model and specific to each target individual. These methods fall into two categories: identity-by-state (IBS) based and ancestry-weighted approach. We evaluated the performance on individuals from recently admixed populations. Our target samples include 8,421 African Americans and 3,587 Hispanic Americans from the Women’s Health Initiative, which allow assessment of imputation quality for uncommon variants. Our experiments include both large and small reference panels; large, medium, and small target samples; and in genome regions of varying levels of LD. We also include BEAGLE and IMPUTE2 for comparison. Experiment results with large reference panel suggest that our novel piecewise IBS method yields consistently higher imputation quality than other methods/software. The advantage is particularly noteworthy among uncommon variants where we observe up to 5.1% information gain with the difference being highly significant (Wilcoxon signed rank test P-value < 0.0001). Our work is the first that considers various sensible approaches for imputation in admixed populations and presents a comprehensive comparison. PMID:23074066

Roles of patch characteristics, drought frequency, and restoration in long-term trends of a widespread amphibian

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hossack, Blake R.; Adams, Michael J.; Pearl, Christopher A.; Pilliod, David S.; Corn, P. Stephen; , KRISTINE W. WILSON; , EVELYN L. BULL; , KRISTIN LOHR; , DEBRA PATLA; , JASON JONES

2013-01-01

Despite the high profile of amphibian declines and the increasing threat of drought and fragmentation to aquatic ecosystems, few studies have examined long-term rates of change for a single species across a large geographic area. We analyzed growth in annual egg-mass counts of the Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) across the northwestern United States, an area encompassing 3 genetic clades. On the basis of data collected by multiple partners from 98 water bodies between 1991 and 2011, we used state-space and linear-regression models to measure effects of patch characteristics, frequency of summer drought, and wetland restoration on population growth. Abundance increased in the 2 clades with greatest decline history, but declined where populations are considered most secure. Population growth was negatively associated with temporary hydroperiods and landscape modification (measured by the human footprint index), but was similar in modified and natural water bodies. The effect of drought was mediated by the size of the water body: populations in large water bodies maintained positive growth despite drought, whereas drought magnified declines in small water bodies. Rapid growth in restored wetlands in areas of historical population declines provided strong evidence of successful management. Our results highlight the importance of maintaining large areas of habitat and underscore the greater vulnerability of small areas of habitat to environmental stochasticity. Similar long-term growth rates in modified and natural water bodies and rapid, positive responses to restoration suggest pond construction and other forms of management can effectively increase population growth. These tools are likely to become increasingly important to mitigate effects of increased drought expected from global climate change.

Projections of Water Stress Based on an Ensemble of Socioeconomic Growth and Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study in Asia.

PubMed

Fant, Charles; Schlosser, C Adam; Gao, Xiang; Strzepek, Kenneth; Reilly, John

2016-01-01

The sustainability of future water resources is of paramount importance and is affected by many factors, including population, wealth and climate. Inherent in current methods to estimate these factors in the future is the uncertainty of their prediction. In this study, we integrate a large ensemble of scenarios--internally consistent across economics, emissions, climate, and population--to develop a risk portfolio of water stress over a large portion of Asia that includes China, India, and Mainland Southeast Asia in a future with unconstrained emissions. We isolate the effects of socioeconomic growth from the effects of climate change in order to identify the primary drivers of stress on water resources. We find that water needs related to socioeconomic changes, which are currently small, are likely to increase considerably in the future, often overshadowing the effect of climate change on levels of water stress. As a result, there is a high risk of severe water stress in densely populated watersheds by 2050, compared to recent history. There is strong evidence to suggest that, in the absence of autonomous adaptation or societal response, a much larger portion of the region's population will live in water-stressed regions in the near future. Tools and studies such as these can effectively investigate large-scale system sensitivities and can be useful in engaging and informing decision makers.

Natural disasters and population mobility in Bangladesh.

PubMed

Gray, Clark L; Mueller, Valerie

2012-04-17

The consequences of environmental change for human migration have gained increasing attention in the context of climate change and recent large-scale natural disasters, but as yet relatively few large-scale and quantitative studies have addressed this issue. We investigate the consequences of climate-related natural disasters for long-term population mobility in rural Bangladesh, a region particularly vulnerable to environmental change, using longitudinal survey data from 1,700 households spanning a 15-y period. Multivariate event history models are used to estimate the effects of flooding and crop failures on local population mobility and long-distance migration while controlling for a large set of potential confounders at various scales. The results indicate that flooding has modest effects on mobility that are most visible at moderate intensities and for women and the poor. However, crop failures unrelated to flooding have strong effects on mobility in which households that are not directly affected but live in severely affected areas are the most likely to move. These results point toward an alternate paradigm of disaster-induced mobility that recognizes the significant barriers to migration for vulnerable households as well their substantial local adaptive capacity.

Shoot, shovel and shut up: cryptic poaching slows restoration of a large carnivore in Europe.

PubMed

Liberg, Olof; Chapron, Guillaume; Wabakken, Petter; Pedersen, Hans Christian; Hobbs, N Thompson; Sand, Håkan

2012-03-07

Poaching is a widespread and well-appreciated problem for the conservation of many threatened species. Because poaching is illegal, there is strong incentive for poachers to conceal their activities, and consequently, little data on the effects of poaching on population dynamics are available. Quantifying poaching mortality should be a required knowledge when developing conservation plans for endangered species but is hampered by methodological challenges. We show that rigorous estimates of the effects of poaching relative to other sources of mortality can be obtained with a hierarchical state-space model combined with multiple sources of data. Using the Scandinavian wolf (Canis lupus) population as an illustrative example, we show that poaching accounted for approximately half of total mortality and more than two-thirds of total poaching remained undetected by conventional methods, a source of mortality we term as 'cryptic poaching'. Our simulations suggest that without poaching during the past decade, the population would have been almost four times as large in 2009. Such a severe impact of poaching on population recovery may be widespread among large carnivores. We believe that conservation strategies for large carnivores considering only observed data may not be adequate and should be revised by including and quantifying cryptic poaching.

Shoot, shovel and shut up: cryptic poaching slows restoration of a large carnivore in Europe

PubMed Central

Liberg, Olof; Chapron, Guillaume; Wabakken, Petter; Pedersen, Hans Christian; Hobbs, N. Thompson; Sand, Håkan

2012-01-01

Poaching is a widespread and well-appreciated problem for the conservation of many threatened species. Because poaching is illegal, there is strong incentive for poachers to conceal their activities, and consequently, little data on the effects of poaching on population dynamics are available. Quantifying poaching mortality should be a required knowledge when developing conservation plans for endangered species but is hampered by methodological challenges. We show that rigorous estimates of the effects of poaching relative to other sources of mortality can be obtained with a hierarchical state–space model combined with multiple sources of data. Using the Scandinavian wolf (Canis lupus) population as an illustrative example, we show that poaching accounted for approximately half of total mortality and more than two-thirds of total poaching remained undetected by conventional methods, a source of mortality we term as ‘cryptic poaching’. Our simulations suggest that without poaching during the past decade, the population would have been almost four times as large in 2009. Such a severe impact of poaching on population recovery may be widespread among large carnivores. We believe that conservation strategies for large carnivores considering only observed data may not be adequate and should be revised by including and quantifying cryptic poaching. PMID:21849323

Sociocultural behavior, sex-biased admixture, and effective population sizes in Central African Pygmies and non-Pygmies.

PubMed

Verdu, Paul; Becker, Noémie S A; Froment, Alain; Georges, Myriam; Grugni, Viola; Quintana-Murci, Lluis; Hombert, Jean-Marie; Van der Veen, Lolke; Le Bomin, Sylvie; Bahuchet, Serge; Heyer, Evelyne; Austerlitz, Frédéric

2013-04-01

Sociocultural phenomena, such as exogamy or phylopatry, can largely determine human sex-specific demography. In Central Africa, diverging patterns of sex-specific genetic variation have been observed between mobile hunter-gatherer Pygmies and sedentary agricultural non-Pygmies. However, their sex-specific demography remains largely unknown. Using population genetics and approximate Bayesian computation approaches, we inferred male and female effective population sizes, sex-specific migration, and admixture rates in 23 Central African Pygmy and non-Pygmy populations, genotyped for autosomal, X-linked, Y-linked, and mitochondrial markers. We found much larger effective population sizes and migration rates among non-Pygmy populations than among Pygmies, in agreement with the recent expansions and migrations of non-Pygmies and, conversely, the isolation and stationary demography of Pygmy groups. We found larger effective sizes and migration rates for males than for females for Pygmies, and vice versa for non-Pygmies. Thus, although most Pygmy populations have patrilocal customs, their sex-specific genetic patterns resemble those of matrilocal populations. In fact, our results are consistent with a lower prevalence of polygyny and patrilocality in Pygmies compared with non-Pygmies and a potential female transmission of reproductive success in Pygmies. Finally, Pygmy populations showed variable admixture levels with the non-Pygmies, with often much larger introgression from male than from female lineages. Social discrimination against Pygmies triggering complex movements of spouses in intermarriages can explain these male-biased admixture patterns in a patrilocal context. We show how gender-related sociocultural phenomena can determine highly variable sex-specific demography among populations, and how population genetic approaches contrasting chromosomal types allow inferring detailed human sex-specific demographic history.

Sociocultural Behavior, Sex-Biased Admixture, and Effective Population Sizes in Central African Pygmies and Non-Pygmies

PubMed Central

Verdu, Paul; Becker, Noémie S.A.; Froment, Alain; Georges, Myriam; Grugni, Viola; Quintana-Murci, Lluis; Hombert, Jean-Marie; Van der Veen, Lolke; Le Bomin, Sylvie; Bahuchet, Serge; Heyer, Evelyne; Austerlitz, Frédéric

2013-01-01

Sociocultural phenomena, such as exogamy or phylopatry, can largely determine human sex-specific demography. In Central Africa, diverging patterns of sex-specific genetic variation have been observed between mobile hunter–gatherer Pygmies and sedentary agricultural non-Pygmies. However, their sex-specific demography remains largely unknown. Using population genetics and approximate Bayesian computation approaches, we inferred male and female effective population sizes, sex-specific migration, and admixture rates in 23 Central African Pygmy and non-Pygmy populations, genotyped for autosomal, X-linked, Y-linked, and mitochondrial markers. We found much larger effective population sizes and migration rates among non-Pygmy populations than among Pygmies, in agreement with the recent expansions and migrations of non-Pygmies and, conversely, the isolation and stationary demography of Pygmy groups. We found larger effective sizes and migration rates for males than for females for Pygmies, and vice versa for non-Pygmies. Thus, although most Pygmy populations have patrilocal customs, their sex-specific genetic patterns resemble those of matrilocal populations. In fact, our results are consistent with a lower prevalence of polygyny and patrilocality in Pygmies compared with non-Pygmies and a potential female transmission of reproductive success in Pygmies. Finally, Pygmy populations showed variable admixture levels with the non-Pygmies, with often much larger introgression from male than from female lineages. Social discrimination against Pygmies triggering complex movements of spouses in intermarriages can explain these male-biased admixture patterns in a patrilocal context. We show how gender-related sociocultural phenomena can determine highly variable sex-specific demography among populations, and how population genetic approaches contrasting chromosomal types allow inferring detailed human sex-specific demographic history. PMID:23300254

Spatio-temporal population structuring and genetic diversity retention in depleted Atlantic Bluefin tuna of the Mediterranean Sea

PubMed Central

Riccioni, Giulia; Landi, Monica; Ferrara, Giorgia; Milano, Ilaria; Cariani, Alessia; Zane, Lorenzo; Sella, Massimo; Barbujani, Guido; Tinti, Fausto

2010-01-01

Fishery genetics have greatly changed our understanding of population dynamics and structuring in marine fish. In this study, we show that the Atlantic Bluefin tuna (ABFT, Thunnus thynnus), an oceanic predatory species exhibiting highly migratory behavior, large population size, and high potential for dispersal during early life stages, displays significant genetic differences over space and time, both at the fine and large scales of variation. We compared microsatellite variation of contemporary (n = 256) and historical (n = 99) biological samples of ABFTs of the central-western Mediterranean Sea, the latter dating back to the early 20th century. Measures of genetic differentiation and a general heterozygote deficit suggest that differences exist among population samples, both now and 96–80 years ago. Thus, ABFTs do not represent a single panmictic population in the Mediterranean Sea. Statistics designed to infer changes in population size, both from current and past genetic variation, suggest that some Mediterranean ABFT populations, although still not severely reduced in their genetic potential, might have suffered from demographic declines. The short-term estimates of effective population size are straddled on the minimum threshold (effective population size = 500) indicated to maintain genetic diversity and evolutionary potential across several generations in natural populations. PMID:20080643

Large-scale replication and heterogeneity in Parkinson disease genetic loci

PubMed Central

Ioannidis, John P.A.; Aasly, Jan O.; Annesi, Grazia; Brice, Alexis; Van Broeckhoven, Christine; Bertram, Lars; Bozi, Maria; Crosiers, David; Clarke, Carl; Facheris, Maurizio; Farrer, Matthew; Garraux, Gaetan; Gispert, Suzana; Auburger, Georg; Vilariño-Güell, Carles; Hadjigeorgiou, Georgios M.; Hicks, Andrew A.; Hattori, Nobutaka; Jeon, Beom; Lesage, Suzanne; Lill, Christina M.; Lin, Juei-Jueng; Lynch, Timothy; Lichtner, Peter; Lang, Anthony E.; Mok, Vincent; Jasinska-Myga, Barbara; Mellick, George D.; Morrison, Karen E.; Opala, Grzegorz; Pramstaller, Peter P.; Pichler, Irene; Park, Sung Sup; Quattrone, Aldo; Rogaeva, Ekaterina; Ross, Owen A.; Stefanis, Leonidas; Stockton, Joanne D.; Satake, Wataru; Silburn, Peter A.; Theuns, Jessie; Tan, Eng-King; Toda, Tatsushi; Tomiyama, Hiroyuki; Uitti, Ryan J.; Wirdefeldt, Karin; Wszolek, Zbigniew; Xiromerisiou, Georgia; Yueh, Kuo-Chu; Zhao, Yi; Gasser, Thomas; Maraganore, Demetrius; Krüger, Rejko

2012-01-01

Objective: Eleven genetic loci have reached genome-wide significance in a recent meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies in Parkinson disease (PD) based on populations of Caucasian descent. The extent to which these genetic effects are consistent across different populations is unknown. Methods: Investigators from the Genetic Epidemiology of Parkinson's Disease Consortium were invited to participate in the study. A total of 11 SNPs were genotyped in 8,750 cases and 8,955 controls. Fixed as well as random effects models were used to provide the summary risk estimates for these variants. We evaluated between-study heterogeneity and heterogeneity between populations of different ancestry. Results: In the overall analysis, single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 9 loci showed significant associations with protective per-allele odds ratios of 0.78–0.87 (LAMP3, BST1, and MAPT) and susceptibility per-allele odds ratios of 1.14–1.43 (STK39, GAK, SNCA, LRRK2, SYT11, and HIP1R). For 5 of the 9 replicated SNPs there was nominally significant between-site heterogeneity in the effect sizes (I2 estimates ranged from 39% to 48%). Subgroup analysis by ethnicity showed significantly stronger effects for the BST1 (rs11724635) in Asian vs Caucasian populations and similar effects for SNCA, LRRK2, LAMP3, HIP1R, and STK39 in Asian and Caucasian populations, while MAPT rs2942168 and SYT11 rs34372695 were monomorphic in the Asian population, highlighting the role of population-specific heterogeneity in PD. Conclusion: Our study allows insight to understand the distribution of newly identified genetic factors contributing to PD and shows that large-scale evaluation in diverse populations is important to understand the role of population-specific heterogeneity. Neurology® 2012;79:659–667 PMID:22786590

Large-scale replication and heterogeneity in Parkinson disease genetic loci.

PubMed

Sharma, Manu; Ioannidis, John P A; Aasly, Jan O; Annesi, Grazia; Brice, Alexis; Van Broeckhoven, Christine; Bertram, Lars; Bozi, Maria; Crosiers, David; Clarke, Carl; Facheris, Maurizio; Farrer, Matthew; Garraux, Gaetan; Gispert, Suzana; Auburger, Georg; Vilariño-Güell, Carles; Hadjigeorgiou, Georgios M; Hicks, Andrew A; Hattori, Nobutaka; Jeon, Beom; Lesage, Suzanne; Lill, Christina M; Lin, Juei-Jueng; Lynch, Timothy; Lichtner, Peter; Lang, Anthony E; Mok, Vincent; Jasinska-Myga, Barbara; Mellick, George D; Morrison, Karen E; Opala, Grzegorz; Pramstaller, Peter P; Pichler, Irene; Park, Sung Sup; Quattrone, Aldo; Rogaeva, Ekaterina; Ross, Owen A; Stefanis, Leonidas; Stockton, Joanne D; Satake, Wataru; Silburn, Peter A; Theuns, Jessie; Tan, Eng-King; Toda, Tatsushi; Tomiyama, Hiroyuki; Uitti, Ryan J; Wirdefeldt, Karin; Wszolek, Zbigniew; Xiromerisiou, Georgia; Yueh, Kuo-Chu; Zhao, Yi; Gasser, Thomas; Maraganore, Demetrius; Krüger, Rejko

2012-08-14

Eleven genetic loci have reached genome-wide significance in a recent meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies in Parkinson disease (PD) based on populations of Caucasian descent. The extent to which these genetic effects are consistent across different populations is unknown. Investigators from the Genetic Epidemiology of Parkinson's Disease Consortium were invited to participate in the study. A total of 11 SNPs were genotyped in 8,750 cases and 8,955 controls. Fixed as well as random effects models were used to provide the summary risk estimates for these variants. We evaluated between-study heterogeneity and heterogeneity between populations of different ancestry. In the overall analysis, single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 9 loci showed significant associations with protective per-allele odds ratios of 0.78-0.87 (LAMP3, BST1, and MAPT) and susceptibility per-allele odds ratios of 1.14-1.43 (STK39, GAK, SNCA, LRRK2, SYT11, and HIP1R). For 5 of the 9 replicated SNPs there was nominally significant between-site heterogeneity in the effect sizes (I(2) estimates ranged from 39% to 48%). Subgroup analysis by ethnicity showed significantly stronger effects for the BST1 (rs11724635) in Asian vs Caucasian populations and similar effects for SNCA, LRRK2, LAMP3, HIP1R, and STK39 in Asian and Caucasian populations, while MAPT rs2942168 and SYT11 rs34372695 were monomorphic in the Asian population, highlighting the role of population-specific heterogeneity in PD. Our study allows insight to understand the distribution of newly identified genetic factors contributing to PD and shows that large-scale evaluation in diverse populations is important to understand the role of population-specific heterogeneity.

Risk of population extinction from fixation of deleterious and reverse mutations.

PubMed

Lande, R

1998-01-01

A model is developed for alternate fixations of mildly deleterious and wild-type alleles arising by forward and reverse mutation in a finite population. For almost all parameter values, this gives an equilibrium load that agrees closely with the general expression derived from diffusion theory. Nearly neutral mutations with selection coefficient a few times larger than 1/(2N(e)) do the most damage by increasing the equilibrium load. The model of alternate fixations facilitates dynamical analysis of the expected load and the mean time to extinction in a population that has been suddenly reduced from a very large size to a small size. Reverse mutation can substantially improve population viability, increasing the mean time to extinction by an order of magnitude or more, but because many mutations are irreversible the effects may not be large. Populations with initially high mean fitness and small effective size, N(e) below a few hundred individuals, may be at serious risk of extinction from fixation of deleterious mutations within 10(3) to 10(4) generations.

Sport hunting, predator control and conservation of large carnivores.

PubMed

Packer, Craig; Kosmala, Margaret; Cooley, Hilary S; Brink, Henry; Pintea, Lilian; Garshelis, David; Purchase, Gianetta; Strauss, Megan; Swanson, Alexandra; Balme, Guy; Hunter, Luke; Nowell, Kristin

2009-06-17

Sport hunting has provided important economic incentives for conserving large predators since the early 1970's, but wildlife managers also face substantial pressure to reduce depredation. Sport hunting is an inherently risky strategy for controlling predators as carnivore populations are difficult to monitor and some species show a propensity for infanticide that is exacerbated by removing adult males. Simulation models predict population declines from even moderate levels of hunting in infanticidal species, and harvest data suggest that African countries and U.S. states with the highest intensity of sport hunting have shown the steepest population declines in African lions and cougars over the past 25 yrs. Similar effects in African leopards may have been masked by mesopredator release owing to declines in sympatric lion populations, whereas there is no evidence of overhunting in non-infanticidal populations of American black bears. Effective conservation of these animals will require new harvest strategies and improved monitoring to counter demands for predator control by livestock producers and local communities.

Sport Hunting, Predator Control and Conservation of Large Carnivores

PubMed Central

Packer, Craig; Kosmala, Margaret; Cooley, Hilary S.; Brink, Henry; Pintea, Lilian; Garshelis, David; Purchase, Gianetta; Strauss, Megan; Swanson, Alexandra; Balme, Guy; Hunter, Luke; Nowell, Kristin

2009-01-01

Sport hunting has provided important economic incentives for conserving large predators since the early 1970's, but wildlife managers also face substantial pressure to reduce depredation. Sport hunting is an inherently risky strategy for controlling predators as carnivore populations are difficult to monitor and some species show a propensity for infanticide that is exacerbated by removing adult males. Simulation models predict population declines from even moderate levels of hunting in infanticidal species, and harvest data suggest that African countries and U.S. states with the highest intensity of sport hunting have shown the steepest population declines in African lions and cougars over the past 25 yrs. Similar effects in African leopards may have been masked by mesopredator release owing to declines in sympatric lion populations, whereas there is no evidence of overhunting in non-infanticidal populations of American black bears. Effective conservation of these animals will require new harvest strategies and improved monitoring to counter demands for predator control by livestock producers and local communities. PMID:19536277

Promoting Community Health Resources: Preferred Communication Strategies

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Background: Community health promotion efforts involve communicating resource information to priority populations. Which communication strategies are most effective is largely unknown for specific populations. Objective: A random-dialed telephone survey was conducted to assess health resource comm...

Field-based high throughput phenotyping rapidly identifies genomic regions controlling yield components in rice

PubMed Central

Tanger, Paul; Klassen, Stephen; Mojica, Julius P.; Lovell, John T.; Moyers, Brook T.; Baraoidan, Marietta; Naredo, Maria Elizabeth B.; McNally, Kenneth L.; Poland, Jesse; Bush, Daniel R.; Leung, Hei; Leach, Jan E.; McKay, John K.

2017-01-01

To ensure food security in the face of population growth, decreasing water and land for agriculture, and increasing climate variability, crop yields must increase faster than the current rates. Increased yields will require implementing novel approaches in genetic discovery and breeding. Here we demonstrate the potential of field-based high throughput phenotyping (HTP) on a large recombinant population of rice to identify genetic variation underlying important traits. We find that detecting quantitative trait loci (QTL) with HTP phenotyping is as accurate and effective as traditional labor-intensive measures of flowering time, height, biomass, grain yield, and harvest index. Genetic mapping in this population, derived from a cross of an modern cultivar (IR64) with a landrace (Aswina), identified four alleles with negative effect on grain yield that are fixed in IR64, demonstrating the potential for HTP of large populations as a strategy for the second green revolution. PMID:28220807

Estimating finite-population reproductive numbers in heterogeneous populations.

PubMed

Keegan, Lindsay T; Dushoff, Jonathan

2016-05-21

The basic reproductive number, R0, is one of the most important epidemiological quantities. R0 provides a threshold for elimination and determines when a disease can spread or when a disease will die out. Classically, R0 is calculated assuming an infinite population of identical hosts. Previous work has shown that heterogeneity in the host mixing rate increases R0 in an infinite population. However, it has been suggested that in a finite population, heterogeneity in the mixing rate may actually decrease the finite-population reproductive numbers. Here, we outline a framework for discussing different types of heterogeneity in disease parameters, and how these affect disease spread and control. We calculate "finite-population reproductive numbers" with different types of heterogeneity, and show that in a finite population, heterogeneity has complicated effects on the reproductive number. We find that simple heterogeneity decreases the finite-population reproductive number, whereas heterogeneity in the intrinsic mixing rate (which affects both infectiousness and susceptibility) increases the finite-population reproductive number when R0 is small relative to the size of the population and decreases the finite-population reproductive number when R0 is large relative to the size of the population. Although heterogeneity has complicated effects on the finite-population reproductive numbers, its implications for control are straightforward: when R0 is large relative to the size of the population, heterogeneity decreases the finite-population reproductive numbers, making disease control or elimination easier than predicted by R0. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Stellar density distribution along the minor axis of the Large Magellanic Cloud

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piatti, Andrés E.

2018-02-01

We studied the spatial distribution of young and old stellar populations along the western half part of the minor axis of the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) using Washington MT1 photometry of selected fields, which span a deprojected distance range from the LMC bar centre out to ∼31.6 kpc. We found that both stellar populations share a mean LMC limiting radius of 8.9 ± 0.4 kpc; old populations are three times more dense than young populations at that LMC limit. When comparing this result with recent values for the LMC extension due to north, the old populations resulted significantly more elongated than the young ones. Bearing in mind previous claims that the elongation of the outermost LMC regions may be due to the tidal effects of the Milky Way (MW), our findings suggest that such a tidal interaction should not have taken place recently. The existence of young populations in the outermost western regions also supports previous results about ram pressure stripping effects of the LMC gaseous disc due to the motion of the LMC in the MW halo.

Measuring happiness in large population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wenas, Annabelle; Sjahputri, Smita; Takwin, Bagus; Primaldhi, Alfindra; Muhamad, Roby

2016-01-01

The ability to know emotional states for large number of people is important, for example, to ensure the effectiveness of public policies. In this study, we propose a measure of happiness that can be used in large scale population that is based on the analysis of Indonesian language lexicons. Here, we incorporate human assessment of Indonesian words, then quantify happiness on large-scale of texts gathered from twitter conversations. We used two psychological constructs to measure happiness: valence and arousal. We found that Indonesian words have tendency towards positive emotions. We also identified several happiness patterns during days of the week, hours of the day, and selected conversation topics.

Population size is weakly related to quantitative genetic variation and trait differentiation in a stream fish.

PubMed

Wood, Jacquelyn L A; Tezel, Defne; Joyal, Destin; Fraser, Dylan J

2015-09-01

How population size influences quantitative genetic variation and differentiation among natural, fragmented populations remains unresolved. Small, isolated populations might occupy poor quality habitats and lose genetic variation more rapidly due to genetic drift than large populations. Genetic drift might furthermore overcome selection as population size decreases. Collectively, this might result in directional changes in additive genetic variation (VA ) and trait differentiation (QST ) from small to large population size. Alternatively, small populations might exhibit larger variation in VA and QST if habitat fragmentation increases variability in habitat types. We explored these alternatives by investigating VA and QST using nine fragmented populations of brook trout varying 50-fold in census size N (179-8416) and 10-fold in effective number of breeders, Nb (18-135). Across 15 traits, no evidence was found for consistent differences in VA and QST with population size and almost no evidence for increased variability of VA or QST estimates at small population size. This suggests that (i) small populations of some species may retain adaptive potential according to commonly adopted quantitative genetic measures and (ii) populations of varying sizes experience a variety of environmental conditions in nature, however extremely large studies are likely required before any firm conclusions can be made. © 2015 The Author(s). Evolution © 2015 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Beyond Serial Founder Effects: The Impact of Admixture and Localized Gene Flow on Patterns of Regional Genetic Diversity.

PubMed

Hunley, Keith L; Cabana, Graciela S

2016-07-01

Geneticists have argued that the linear decay in within-population genetic diversity with increasing geographic distance from East Africa is best explained by a phylogenetic process of repeated founder effects, growth, and isolation. However, this serial founder effect (SFE) process has not yet been adequately vetted against other evolutionary processes that may also affect geospatial patterns of diversity. Additionally, studies of the SFE process have been largely based on a limited 52-population sample. Here, we assess the effects of founder effect, admixture, and localized gene flow processes on patterns of global and regional diversity using a published data set of 645 autosomal microsatellite genotypes from 5,415 individuals in 248 widespread populations. We used a formal tree-fitting approach to explore the role of founder effects. The approach involved fitting global and regional population trees to extant patterns of gene diversity and then systematically examining the deviations in fit. We also informally tested the SFE process using linear models of gene diversity versus waypoint geographic distances from Africa. We tested the role of localized gene flow using partial Mantel correlograms of gene diversity versus geographic distance controlling for the confounding effects of treelike genetic structure. We corroborate previous findings that global patterns of diversity, both within and between populations, are the product of an out-of-Africa SFE process. Within regions, however, diversity within populations is uncorrelated with geographic distance from Africa. Here, patterns of diversity have been largely shaped by recent interregional admixture and secondary range expansions. Our detailed analyses of the pattern of diversity within and between populations reveal that the signatures of different evolutionary processes dominate at different geographic scales. These findings have important implications for recent publications on the biology of race.

Low functional redundancy among mammalian browsers in regulating an encroaching shrub (Solanum campylacanthum) in African savannah

PubMed Central

Pringle, Robert M.; Goheen, Jacob R.; Palmer, Todd M.; Charles, Grace K.; DeFranco, Elyse; Hohbein, Rhianna; Ford, Adam T.; Tarnita, Corina E.

2014-01-01

Large herbivorous mammals play an important role in structuring African savannahs and are undergoing widespread population declines and local extinctions, with the largest species being the most vulnerable. The impact of these declines on key ecological processes hinges on the degree of functional redundancy within large-herbivore assemblages, a subject that has received little study. We experimentally quantified the effects of three browser species (elephant, impala and dik-dik) on individual- and population-level attributes of Solanum campylacanthum (Solanum incanum sensu lato), an encroaching woody shrub, using semi-permeable exclosures that selectively removed different-sized herbivores. After nearly 5 years, shrub abundance was lowest where all browser species were present and increased with each successive species deletion. Different browsers ate the same plant species in different ways, thereby exerting distinct suites of direct and indirect effects on plant performance and density. Not all of these effects were negative: elephants and impala also dispersed viable seeds and indirectly reduced seed predation by rodents and insects. We integrated these diffuse positive effects with the direct negative effects of folivory using a simple population model, which reinforced the conclusion that different browsers have complementary net effects on plant populations, and further suggested that under some conditions, these net effects may even differ in direction. PMID:24789900

Effects of long-term use by big game and livestock in the Blue Mountains forest ecosystems.

Treesearch

Larry L. Irwin; John G. Cook; Robert A. Riggs; Jon M. Skovlin

1994-01-01

The effects on eastside forest ecosystems from long-term grazing by large mammals are assessed, because long-term herbivory can reduce or increase ecosystem productivity. The assessment emphasizes elk and cattle in the Blue Mountains of northeast Oregon and southeast Washington. Histories of populations of large mammals and their effects in the Blue Mountains are...

Effects of weather on the abundance and distribution on populations of 103 breeding bird species across the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allstadt, A. J.; Gorzo, J.; Bateman, B. L.; Heglund, P. J.; Pidgeon, A. M.; Thogmartin, W.; Vavrus, S. J.; Radeloff, V.

2016-12-01

Often, fewer birds are often observed in an area experiencing extreme weather, as local populations tend to leave an area (via out-migration or concentration in refugia) or experience a change in population size (via mortality or reduced fecundity). Further, weather patterns are often coherent over large areas so unsuitable weather may threaten large portions of an entire species range simultaneously. However, beyond a few iconic irruptive species, rarely have studies applied both the necessary scale and sensitivity required to assess avian population responses over entire species range. Here, we examined the effects of pre-breeding season weather on the distribution and abundances of 103 North American bird species from the late 1966-2010 using observed abundance records from the Breeding Bird Survey. We compared abundances with measures of drought and temperature over each species' range, and with three atmospheric teleconnections that describe large-scale circulation patterns influencing conditions on the ground. More than 90% of the species responded to at least one of our five weather variables. Grassland bird species tended to be most responsive to weather conditions and forest birds the least, though we found relations among all habitat types. For most species, the response was movement rather than large effects on the overall population size. Maps of these responses indicate that concentration and out-migration are both common strategies for coping with challenging weather conditions across a species range. The dynamic distribution of many bird species makes clear the need to account for temporal variability in conservation planning, as areas that are less important for a species' breeding success in most years may be very important in years with abnormal weather conditions.

Batch effects in single-cell RNA-sequencing data are corrected by matching mutual nearest neighbors.

PubMed

Haghverdi, Laleh; Lun, Aaron T L; Morgan, Michael D; Marioni, John C

2018-06-01

Large-scale single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) data sets that are produced in different laboratories and at different times contain batch effects that may compromise the integration and interpretation of the data. Existing scRNA-seq analysis methods incorrectly assume that the composition of cell populations is either known or identical across batches. We present a strategy for batch correction based on the detection of mutual nearest neighbors (MNNs) in the high-dimensional expression space. Our approach does not rely on predefined or equal population compositions across batches; instead, it requires only that a subset of the population be shared between batches. We demonstrate the superiority of our approach compared with existing methods by using both simulated and real scRNA-seq data sets. Using multiple droplet-based scRNA-seq data sets, we demonstrate that our MNN batch-effect-correction method can be scaled to large numbers of cells.

Density-dependent effects on physical condition and reproduction in North American elk: an experimental test.

Treesearch

Kelley M. Stewart; R. Terry Bowyer; Brian L. Dick; Bruce K. Johnson; John G. Kie

2005-01-01

Density dependence plays a key role in life-history characteristics and population ecology of large, herbivorous mammals. We designed a manipulative experiment to test hypotheses relating effects of density-dependent mechanisms on physical condition and fecundity of North American elk (Cervus elaphus) by creating populations at low and high density...

Child Demographics Associated with Outcomes in a Community-Based Pivotal Response Training Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baker-Ericzen, Mary J.; Stahmer, Aubyn C.; Burns, Amelia

2007-01-01

Although knowledge about the efficacy of treatments such as pivotal response training (PRT) for children with autism is increasing, studies of large-scale effectiveness for and transportability to diverse community populations are needed. The current study provides a large-scale preliminary assessment of (a) the effectiveness of a community-based…

Conserving genomic variability in large mammals: Effect of population fluctuations and variance in male reproductive success on variability in Yellowstone bison

Treesearch

Andres Perez-Figueroa; Rick L. Wallen; Tiago Antao; Jason A. Coombs; Michael K. Schwartz; P. J. White; Gordon Luikart

2012-01-01

Loss of genetic variation through genetic drift can reduce population viability. However, relatively little is known about loss of variation caused by the combination of fluctuating population size and variance in reproductive success in age structured populations. We built an individual-based computer simulation model to examine how actual culling and hunting...

Extreme-value statistics reveal rare failure-critical defects in additive manufacturing

DOE PAGES

Boyce, Brad L.; Salzbrenner, Bradley C.; Rodelas, Jeffrey M.; ...

2017-04-21

Additive manufacturing enables the rapid, cost effective production of large populations of material test coupons such as tensile bars. By adopting streamlined test methods including ‘drop-in’ grips and non-contact extensometry, testing these large populations becomes more efficient. Unlike hardness tests, the tensile test provides a direct measure of yield strength, flow properties, and ductility, which can be directly incorporated into solid mechanics simulations. In the present work, over 1000 nominally identical tensile tests were used to explore the effect of process variability on the mechanical property distributions of a precipitation hardened stainless steel, 17-4PH, produced by a laser powder bedmore » fusion process, also known as direct metal laser sintering. With this large dataset, rare defects are revealed that affect only ~2% of the population, stemming from a single build lot of material. Lastly, the rare defects caused a substantial loss in ductility and were associated with an interconnected network of porosity.« less

GM2 gangliosidosis in Saudi Arabia: multiple mutations and considerations for future carrier screening.

PubMed

Kaya, Namik; Al-Owain, Mohammad; Abudheim, Nada; Al-Zahrani, Jawaher; Colak, Dilek; Al-Sayed, Moeen; Milanlioglu, Aysel; Ozand, Pinar T; Alkuraya, Fowzan S

2011-06-01

The GM2 gangliosidose, Tay-Sachs and Sandhoff diseases, are a class of lysosomal storage diseases in which relentless neurodegeneration results in devastating neurological disability and premature death. Primary prevention is the most effective intervention since no effective therapy is currently available. An extremely successful model for the prevention of GM2 gangliosidosis in the Ashkenazi Jewish community is largely attributable to the very limited number of founder mutations in that population. Consistent with our previous observation of allelic heterogeneity in consanguineous populations, we show here that these diseases are largely caused by private mutations which present a major obstacle in replicating the Ashkenazi success story. Alternative solutions are proposed which can also be implemented for other autosomal recessive diseases in our population. Copyright © 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

A Markov chain model for studying suicide dynamics: an illustration of the Rose theorem

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background High-risk strategies would only have a modest effect on suicide prevention within a population. It is best to incorporate both high-risk and population-based strategies to prevent suicide. This study aims to compare the effectiveness of suicide prevention between high-risk and population-based strategies. Methods A Markov chain illness and death model is proposed to determine suicide dynamic in a population and examine its effectiveness for reducing the number of suicides by modifying certain parameters of the model. Assuming a population with replacement, the suicide risk of the population was estimated by determining the final state of the Markov model. Results The model shows that targeting the whole population for suicide prevention is more effective than reducing risk in the high-risk tail of the distribution of psychological distress (i.e. the mentally ill). Conclusions The results of this model reinforce the essence of the Rose theorem that lowering the suicidal risk in the population at large may be more effective than reducing the high risk in a small population. PMID:24948330

The role of predation and food limitation on claims for compensation, reindeer demography and population dynamics

PubMed Central

Tveraa, Torkild; Stien, Audun; Brøseth, Henrik; Yoccoz, Nigel G

2014-01-01

A major challenge in biodiversity conservation is to facilitate viable populations of large apex predators in ecosystems where they were recently driven to ecological extinction due to resource conflict with humans. Monetary compensation for losses of livestock due to predation is currently a key instrument to encourage human–carnivore coexistence. However, a lack of quantitative estimates of livestock losses due to predation leads to disagreement over the practice of compensation payments. This disagreement sustains the human–carnivore conflict. The level of depredation on year-round, free-ranging, semi-domestic reindeer by large carnivores in Fennoscandia has been widely debated over several decades. In Norway, the reindeer herders claim that lynx and wolverine cause losses of tens of thousands of animals annually and cause negative population growth in herds. Conversely, previous research has suggested that monetary predator compensation can result in positive population growth in the husbandry, with cascading negative effects of high grazer densities on the biodiversity in tundra ecosystems. We utilized a long-term, large-scale data set to estimate the relative importance of lynx and wolverine predation and density-dependent and climatic food limitation on claims for losses, recruitment and population growth rates in Norwegian reindeer husbandry. Claims of losses increased with increasing predator densities, but with no detectable effect on population growth rates. Density-dependent and climatic effects on claims of losses, recruitment and population growth rates were much stronger than the effects of variation in lynx and wolverine densities. Synthesis and applications. Our analysis provides a quantitative basis for predator compensation and estimation of the costs of reintroducing lynx and wolverine in areas with free-ranging semi-domestic reindeer. We outline a potential path for conflict management which involves adaptive monitoring programmes, open access to data, herder involvement and development of management strategy evaluation (MSE) models to disentangle complex responses including multiple stakeholders and individual harvester decisions. PMID:25558085

Determinants of lifetime reproduction in female brown bears: early body mass, longevity, and hunting regulations.

PubMed

Zedrosser, Andreas; Pelletier, Fanie; Bischof, Richard; Festa-Bianchet, Marco; Swenson, Jon E

2013-01-01

In iteroparous mammals, conditions experienced early in life may have long-lasting effects on lifetime reproductive success. Human-induced mortality is also an important demographic factor in many populations of large mammals and may influence lifetime reproductive success. Here, we explore the effects of early development, population density, and human hunting on survival and lifetime reproductive success in brown bear (Ursus arctos) females, using a 25-year database of individually marked bears in two populations in Sweden. Survival of yearlings to 2 years was not affected by population density or body mass. Yearlings that remained with their mother had higher survival than independent yearlings, partly because regulations prohibit the harvest of bears in family groups. Although mass as a yearling did not affect juvenile survival, it was positively associated with measures of lifetime reproductive success and individual fitness. The majority of adult female brown bear mortality (72%) in our study was due to human causes, mainly hunting, and many females were killed before they reproduced. Therefore, factors allowing females to survive several hunting seasons had a strong positive effect on lifetime reproductive success. We suggest that, in many hunted populations of large mammals, sport harvest is an important influence on both population dynamics and life histories.

77 FR 14011 - Assessment of Potential Large-Scale Mining on the Bristol Bay Watershed of Alaska: Nomination of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-03-08

... Bristol Bay watershed provides habitat for one of the largest wild salmon populations in the world. In... resident fish populations of the Kvichak and Nushagak River drainages, and if these effects are likely to affect wildlife and human populations in the region. Additional information describing the assessment...

77 FR 11111 - Assessment of Potential Large-Scale Mining on the Bristol Bay Watershed of Alaska: Nomination of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-02-24

... populations in the world. In February 2011, EPA began a scientific assessment of the Bristol Bay watershed to... on salmon and resident fish populations of the Kvichak and Nushagak River drainages, and if these effects are likely to affect wildlife and human populations in the region. Additional information...

Applications of species accumulation curves in large-scale biological data analysis.

PubMed

Deng, Chao; Daley, Timothy; Smith, Andrew D

2015-09-01

The species accumulation curve, or collector's curve, of a population gives the expected number of observed species or distinct classes as a function of sampling effort. Species accumulation curves allow researchers to assess and compare diversity across populations or to evaluate the benefits of additional sampling. Traditional applications have focused on ecological populations but emerging large-scale applications, for example in DNA sequencing, are orders of magnitude larger and present new challenges. We developed a method to estimate accumulation curves for predicting the complexity of DNA sequencing libraries. This method uses rational function approximations to a classical non-parametric empirical Bayes estimator due to Good and Toulmin [Biometrika, 1956, 43, 45-63]. Here we demonstrate how the same approach can be highly effective in other large-scale applications involving biological data sets. These include estimating microbial species richness, immune repertoire size, and k -mer diversity for genome assembly applications. We show how the method can be modified to address populations containing an effectively infinite number of species where saturation cannot practically be attained. We also introduce a flexible suite of tools implemented as an R package that make these methods broadly accessible.

Applications of species accumulation curves in large-scale biological data analysis

PubMed Central

Deng, Chao; Daley, Timothy; Smith, Andrew D

2016-01-01

The species accumulation curve, or collector’s curve, of a population gives the expected number of observed species or distinct classes as a function of sampling effort. Species accumulation curves allow researchers to assess and compare diversity across populations or to evaluate the benefits of additional sampling. Traditional applications have focused on ecological populations but emerging large-scale applications, for example in DNA sequencing, are orders of magnitude larger and present new challenges. We developed a method to estimate accumulation curves for predicting the complexity of DNA sequencing libraries. This method uses rational function approximations to a classical non-parametric empirical Bayes estimator due to Good and Toulmin [Biometrika, 1956, 43, 45–63]. Here we demonstrate how the same approach can be highly effective in other large-scale applications involving biological data sets. These include estimating microbial species richness, immune repertoire size, and k-mer diversity for genome assembly applications. We show how the method can be modified to address populations containing an effectively infinite number of species where saturation cannot practically be attained. We also introduce a flexible suite of tools implemented as an R package that make these methods broadly accessible. PMID:27252899

The walk is never random: subtle landscape effects shape gene flow in a continuous white-tailed deer population in the Midwestern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robinson, Stacie J.; Samuel, Michael D.; Lopez, Davin L.; Shelton, Paul

2012-01-01

One of the pervasive challenges in landscape genetics is detecting gene flow patterns within continuous populations of highly mobile wildlife. Understanding population genetic structure within a continuous population can give insights into social structure, movement across the landscape and contact between populations, which influence ecological interactions, reproductive dynamics or pathogen transmission. We investigated the genetic structure of a large population of deer spanning the area of Wisconsin and Illinois, USA, affected by chronic wasting disease. We combined multiscale investigation, landscape genetic techniques and spatial statistical modelling to address the complex questions of landscape factors influencing population structure. We sampled over 2000 deer and used spatial autocorrelation and a spatial principal components analysis to describe the population genetic structure. We evaluated landscape effects on this pattern using a spatial autoregressive model within a model selection framework to test alternative hypotheses about gene flow. We found high levels of genetic connectivity, with gradients of variation across the large continuous population of white-tailed deer. At the fine scale, spatial clustering of related animals was correlated with the amount and arrangement of forested habitat. At the broader scale, impediments to dispersal were important to shaping genetic connectivity within the population. We found significant barrier effects of individual state and interstate highways and rivers. Our results offer an important understanding of deer biology and movement that will help inform the management of this species in an area where overabundance and disease spread are primary concerns.

Population differentiation in Pacific salmon: local adaptation, genetic drift, or the environment?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Adkison, Milo D.

1995-01-01

Morphological, behavioral, and life-history differences between Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) populations are commonly thought to reflect local adaptation, and it is likewise common to assume that salmon populations separated by small distances are locally adapted. Two alternatives to local adaptation exist: random genetic differentiation owing to genetic drift and founder events, and genetic homogeneity among populations, in which differences reflect differential trait expression in differing environments. Population genetics theory and simulations suggest that both alternatives are possible. With selectively neutral alleles, genetic drift can result in random differentiation despite many strays per generation. Even weak selection can prevent genetic drift in stable populations; however, founder effects can result in random differentiation despite selective pressures. Overlapping generations reduce the potential for random differentiation. Genetic homogeneity can occur despite differences in selective regimes when straying rates are high. In sum, localized differences in selection should not always result in local adaptation. Local adaptation is favored when population sizes are large and stable, selection is consistent over large areas, selective diffeentials are large, and straying rates are neither too high nor too low. Consideration of alternatives to local adaptation would improve both biological research and salmon conservation efforts.

The Impact of Childhood Bullying among HIV-Positive Men: Psychosocial Correlates and Risk Factors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kamen, Charles; Bergstrom, Jessica; Vorasarun, Chaniga; Mardini, Mona; Patrick, Rudy; Lee, Susanne; Lazar, Rachael; Koopman, Cheryl; Gore-Felton, Cheryl

2013-01-01

Objectives: While some studies have examined the deleterious effects of childhood bullying on adults, no studies to date have focused on the effects of bullying on Persons Living with HIV (PLH), a particularly at-risk population. PLH experience higher rates of childhood and adulthood physical and sexual abuse than the population at large, and…

A prospective study of the effects of ultralow volume (ULV) aerial application of malathion on epidemic Plasmodium falciparum malaria. II. Entomologic and operational aspects.

PubMed

Taylor, R T; Solis, M; Weathers, D B; Taylor, J W

1975-03-01

In a large-scale study in the Miragoane Valley of Haiti, designed to test the effects of aerial ultralow volume (ULV) malathion on epidemic Plasmodium falciparum malaria, spray operations resulted in an immediate and sharp decline in numbers of the vector, Anopheles albimanus. The adult population of this mosquito remained at less than 1% of previous levels until several weeks after a 50-day spray period (27 October-16 December 1972) during which six cycles were completed. The study area offered ideal conditions of wind, temperature, humidity, and mountain barriers. Mosquitoes in the area were highly susceptible to malathion. Results indicated that aerial ULV treatment with malathion can reduce A. albimanus populations rapidly and effectively when applications are made over an area as large as 20,000 acres. Preliminary results showed that effective control was not achieved in areas one-quarter that size; these areas were not sufficiently large, and infiltration of mosquitoes from adjacent untreated areas was possible.

EVALUATING THE EFFECTS OF NEAR ROAD SOLID AND VEGETATION BARRIERS ON MSAT EXPOSURES

EPA Science Inventory

Public health concerns for populations living, working and going to school near high-traffic roadways has increased substantially in recent years. Air quality measurement studies indicate high pollutant concentrations can occur near these large roads, impacting population exposu...

Bayesian Inference on the Effect of Density Dependence and Weather on a Guanaco Population from Chile

PubMed Central

Zubillaga, María; Skewes, Oscar; Soto, Nicolás; Rabinovich, Jorge E.; Colchero, Fernando

2014-01-01

Understanding the mechanisms that drive population dynamics is fundamental for management of wild populations. The guanaco (Lama guanicoe) is one of two wild camelid species in South America. We evaluated the effects of density dependence and weather variables on population regulation based on a time series of 36 years of population sampling of guanacos in Tierra del Fuego, Chile. The population density varied between 2.7 and 30.7 guanaco/km2, with an apparent monotonic growth during the first 25 years; however, in the last 10 years the population has shown large fluctuations, suggesting that it might have reached its carrying capacity. We used a Bayesian state-space framework and model selection to determine the effect of density and environmental variables on guanaco population dynamics. Our results show that the population is under density dependent regulation and that it is currently fluctuating around an average carrying capacity of 45,000 guanacos. We also found a significant positive effect of previous winter temperature while sheep density has a strong negative effect on the guanaco population growth. We conclude that there are significant density dependent processes and that climate as well as competition with domestic species have important effects determining the population size of guanacos, with important implications for management and conservation. PMID:25514510

Bayesian inference on the effect of density dependence and weather on a guanaco population from Chile.

PubMed

Zubillaga, María; Skewes, Oscar; Soto, Nicolás; Rabinovich, Jorge E; Colchero, Fernando

2014-01-01

Understanding the mechanisms that drive population dynamics is fundamental for management of wild populations. The guanaco (Lama guanicoe) is one of two wild camelid species in South America. We evaluated the effects of density dependence and weather variables on population regulation based on a time series of 36 years of population sampling of guanacos in Tierra del Fuego, Chile. The population density varied between 2.7 and 30.7 guanaco/km2, with an apparent monotonic growth during the first 25 years; however, in the last 10 years the population has shown large fluctuations, suggesting that it might have reached its carrying capacity. We used a Bayesian state-space framework and model selection to determine the effect of density and environmental variables on guanaco population dynamics. Our results show that the population is under density dependent regulation and that it is currently fluctuating around an average carrying capacity of 45,000 guanacos. We also found a significant positive effect of previous winter temperature while sheep density has a strong negative effect on the guanaco population growth. We conclude that there are significant density dependent processes and that climate as well as competition with domestic species have important effects determining the population size of guanacos, with important implications for management and conservation.

Assessing population movement impacts on urban heat island of Beijing during the Chinese New Year holiday: effects of meteorological conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Lingyun; Zhang, Jingyong

2018-02-01

Chinese New Year (CNY), or Spring Festival, is the most important of all festivals in China. We use daily observations to show that Beijing's urban heat island (UHI) effects largely depend on precipitation, cloud cover, and water vapor but are insensitive to wind speed, during the CNY holiday season. Non-precipitating, clear, and low humidity conditions favor strong UHI effects. The CNY holiday, with some 3 billion journeys made, provides a living laboratory to explore the role of population movements in the UHI phenomenon. Averaged over the period 2004-2013, with the Olympic year of 2008 excluded, Beijing's UHI effects during the CNY week decline by 0.48 °C relative to the background period (4 weeks including 2 to 3 weeks before, and 2 to 3 weeks after, the CNY week). With combined effects of precipitation, large cloud cover, and high water vapor excluded, the UHI effects during the CNY week averaged over the study period decline by 0.76 °C relative to the background period, significant at the 99% confidence level by Student's t test. These results indicate that the impacts of population movements can be more easily detected when excluding unfavorable meteorological conditions to the UHI. Population movements occur not only during the CNY holiday, but also during all the time across the globe. We suggest that better understanding the role of population movements will offer new insight into anthropogenic climate modifications.

Multimethod, multistate Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach for use in regional monitoring of wolves.

PubMed

Jiménez, José; García, Emilio J; Llaneza, Luis; Palacios, Vicente; González, Luis Mariano; García-Domínguez, Francisco; Múñoz-Igualada, Jaime; López-Bao, José Vicente

2016-08-01

In many cases, the first step in large-carnivore management is to obtain objective, reliable, and cost-effective estimates of population parameters through procedures that are reproducible over time. However, monitoring predators over large areas is difficult, and the data have a high level of uncertainty. We devised a practical multimethod and multistate modeling approach based on Bayesian hierarchical-site-occupancy models that combined multiple survey methods to estimate different population states for use in monitoring large predators at a regional scale. We used wolves (Canis lupus) as our model species and generated reliable estimates of the number of sites with wolf reproduction (presence of pups). We used 2 wolf data sets from Spain (Western Galicia in 2013 and Asturias in 2004) to test the approach. Based on howling surveys, the naïve estimation (i.e., estimate based only on observations) of the number of sites with reproduction was 9 and 25 sites in Western Galicia and Asturias, respectively. Our model showed 33.4 (SD 9.6) and 34.4 (3.9) sites with wolf reproduction, respectively. The number of occupied sites with wolf reproduction was 0.67 (SD 0.19) and 0.76 (0.11), respectively. This approach can be used to design more cost-effective monitoring programs (i.e., to define the sampling effort needed per site). Our approach should inspire well-coordinated surveys across multiple administrative borders and populations and lead to improved decision making for management of large carnivores on a landscape level. The use of this Bayesian framework provides a simple way to visualize the degree of uncertainty around population-parameter estimates and thus provides managers and stakeholders an intuitive approach to interpreting monitoring results. Our approach can be widely applied to large spatial scales in wildlife monitoring where detection probabilities differ between population states and where several methods are being used to estimate different population parameters. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fant, Charles; Schlosser, C. Adam; Gao, Xiang

The sustainability of future water resources is of paramount importance and is affected by many factors, including population, wealth and climate. Inherent in current methods to estimate these factors in the future is the uncertainty of their prediction. In this study, we integrate a large ensemble of scenarios—internally consistent across economics, emissions, climate, and population—to develop a risk portfolio of water stress over a large portion of Asia that includes China, India, and Mainland Southeast Asia in a future with unconstrained emissions. We isolate the effects of socioeconomic growth from the effects of climate change in order to identify themore » primary drivers of stress on water resources. We find that water needs related to socioeconomic changes, which are currently small, are likely to increase considerably in the future, often overshadowing the effect of climate change on levels of water stress. As a result, there is a high risk of severe water stress in densely populated watersheds by 2050, compared to recent history. There is strong evidence to suggest that, in the absence of autonomous adaptation or societal response, a much larger portion of the region’s population will live in water-stressed regions in the near future. Lastly, tools and studies such as these can effectively investigate large-scale system sensitivities and can be useful in engaging and informing decision makers.« less

Natural disasters and population mobility in Bangladesh

PubMed Central

Gray, Clark L.; Mueller, Valerie

2012-01-01

The consequences of environmental change for human migration have gained increasing attention in the context of climate change and recent large-scale natural disasters, but as yet relatively few large-scale and quantitative studies have addressed this issue. We investigate the consequences of climate-related natural disasters for long-term population mobility in rural Bangladesh, a region particularly vulnerable to environmental change, using longitudinal survey data from 1,700 households spanning a 15-y period. Multivariate event history models are used to estimate the effects of flooding and crop failures on local population mobility and long-distance migration while controlling for a large set of potential confounders at various scales. The results indicate that flooding has modest effects on mobility that are most visible at moderate intensities and for women and the poor. However, crop failures unrelated to flooding have strong effects on mobility in which households that are not directly affected but live in severely affected areas are the most likely to move. These results point toward an alternate paradigm of disaster-induced mobility that recognizes the significant barriers to migration for vulnerable households as well their substantial local adaptive capacity. PMID:22474361

Effectiveness of fecal immunochemical testing in reducing colorectal cancer mortality from the One Million Taiwanese Screening Program.

PubMed

Chiu, Han-Mo; Chen, Sam Li-Sheng; Yen, Amy Ming-Fang; Chiu, Sherry Yueh-Hsia; Fann, Jean Ching-Yuan; Lee, Yi-Chia; Pan, Shin-Liang; Wu, Ming-Shiang; Liao, Chao-Sheng; Chen, Hsiu-Hsi; Koong, Shin-Lan; Chiou, Shu-Ti

2015-09-15

The effectiveness of fecal immunochemical testing (FIT) in reducing colorectal cancer (CRC) mortality has not yet been fully assessed in a large, population-based service screening program. A prospective cohort study of the follow-up of approximately 5 million Taiwanese from 2004 to 2009 was conducted to compare CRC mortality for an exposed (screened) group and an unexposed (unscreened) group in a population-based CRC screening service targeting community residents of Taiwan who were 50 to 69 years old. Given clinical capacity, this nationwide screening program was first rolled out in 2004. In all, 1,160,895 eligible subjects who were 50 to 69 years old (ie, 21.4% of the 5,417,699 subjects of the underlying population) participated in the biennial nationwide screening program by 2009. The actual effectiveness in reducing CRC mortality attributed to the FIT screening was 62% (relative rate for the screened group vs the unscreened group, 0.38; 95% confidence interval, 0.35-0.42) with a maximum follow-up of 6 years. The 21.4% coverage of the population receiving FIT led to a significant 10% reduction in CRC mortality (relative rate, 0.90; 95% confidence interval, 0.84-0.95) after adjustments for a self-selection bias. This large, prospective Taiwanese cohort undergoing population-based FIT screening for CRC had the statistical power to demonstrate a significant CRC mortality reduction, although the follow-up time was short. Although such findings are informative for health decision makers, continued follow-up of this large cohort will be required to estimate the long-term impact of FIT screening if the covered population is expanded. © 2015 American Cancer Society.

Demographic Consequences of Gender Discrimination in China: Simulation Analysis of Policy Options.

PubMed

Quanbao, Jiang; Shuzhuo, Li; Marcus W, Feldman

2011-08-01

The large number of missing females in China, a consequence of gender discrimination, is having and will continue to have a profound effect on the country's population development. In this paper, we analyze the causes of this gender discrimination in terms of institutions, culture and, economy, and suggest public policies that might help eliminate gender discrimination. Using a population simulation model, we study the effect of public policies on the sex ratio at birth and excess female child mortality, and the effect of gender discrimination on China's population development. We find that gender discrimination will decrease China's population size, number of births, and working age population, accelerate population aging and exacerbate the male marriage squeeze. These results provide theoretical support for suggesting that the government enact and implement public policies aimed at eliminating gender discrimination.

Demographic Consequences of Gender Discrimination in China: Simulation Analysis of Policy Options

PubMed Central

Quanbao, Jiang; Marcus W., Feldman

2013-01-01

The large number of missing females in China, a consequence of gender discrimination, is having and will continue to have a profound effect on the country's population development. In this paper, we analyze the causes of this gender discrimination in terms of institutions, culture and, economy, and suggest public policies that might help eliminate gender discrimination. Using a population simulation model, we study the effect of public policies on the sex ratio at birth and excess female child mortality, and the effect of gender discrimination on China's population development. We find that gender discrimination will decrease China's population size, number of births, and working age population, accelerate population aging and exacerbate the male marriage squeeze. These results provide theoretical support for suggesting that the government enact and implement public policies aimed at eliminating gender discrimination. PMID:24363477

Legacy of mutiny on the Bounty: founder effect and admixture on Norfolk Island

PubMed Central

Macgregor, Stuart; Bellis, Claire; Lea, Rod A; Cox, Hannah; Dyer, Tom; Blangero, John; Visscher, Peter M; Griffiths, Lyn R

2010-01-01

The population of Norfolk Island, located off the eastern coast of Australia, possesses an unusual and fascinating history. Most present-day islanders are related to a small number of the ‘Bounty' mutineer founders. These founders consisted of Caucasian males and Polynesian females and led to an admixed present-day population. By examining a single large pedigree of 5742 individuals, spanning >200 years, we analyzed the influence of admixture and founder effect on various cardiovascular disease (CVD)-related traits. On account of the relative isolation of the population, on average one-third of the genomes of present-day islanders (single large pedigree individuals) is derived from 17 initial founders. The proportion of Polynesian ancestry in the present-day individuals was found to significantly influence total triglycerides, body mass index, systolic blood pressure and diastolic blood pressure. For various cholesterol traits, the influence of ancestry was less marked but overall the direction of effect for all CVD-related traits was consistent with Polynesian ancestry conferring greater CVD risk. Marker-derived homozygosity was computed and agreed with measures of inbreeding derived from pedigree information. Founder effect (inbreeding and marker-derived homozygosity) significantly influenced height. In conclusion, both founder effect and extreme admixture have substantially influenced the genetic architecture of a variety of CVD-related traits in this population. PMID:19584896

Effectiveness of a regional corridor in connecting two Florida black bear populations.

PubMed

Dixon, Jeremy D; Oli, Madan K; Wooten, Michael C; Eason, Thomas H; McCown, J Walter; Paetkau, David

2006-02-01

Corridors may mitigate the adverse effects of habitat fragmentation by restoring or maintaining connectivity between disjunct populations. The efficacy of corridors for large carnivores, however has rarely been evaluated objectively. We used noninvasive sampling, microsatellite analysis, and population assignment tests to evaluate the effectiveness of a regional corridor in connecting two Florida black bear (Ursus americanus floridanus) populations (Osceola and Ocala). Bear movement was predominantly unidirectional, with a limited mixing of individuals from the two populations in one area of the corridor We also documented bears in Osceola that were genetically assigned to Ocala and bears in Osceola that may be offspring from an Osceola-Ocala mating. Our results indicate that the Osceola-Ocala corridor is functional and provides a conduit for gene flow between these populations. Human development, however may hinder the use of the Osceola-Ocala corridor by bears. The noninvasive sampling and genetic methods we used provide a means of evaluating corridor effectiveness that can help identify linkages necessary for maintaining metapopulation structure and population viability.

Major shifts in Amazon wildlife populations from recent intensification of floods and drought.

PubMed

Bodmer, Richard; Mayor, Pedro; Antunez, Miguel; Chota, Kimberlyn; Fang, Tula; Puertas, Pablo; Pittet, Marlini; Kirkland, Maire; Walkey, Mike; Rios, Claudia; Perez-Peña, Pedro; Henderson, Peter; Bodmer, William; Bicerra, Andy; Zegarra, Joseph; Docherty, Emma

2018-04-01

In the western Amazon Basin, recent intensification of river-level cycles has increased flooding during the wet seasons and decreased precipitation during the dry season. Greater than normal floods occurred in 2009 and in all years from 2011 to 2015 during high-water seasons, and a drought occurred during the 2010 low-water season. During these years, we surveyed populations of terrestrial, arboreal, and aquatic wildlife in a seasonally flooded Amazonian forest in the Loreto region of Peru (99,780 km 2 ) to study the effects of intensification of natural climatic fluctuations on wildlife populations and in turn effects on resource use by local people. Shifts in fish and terrestrial mammal populations occurred during consecutive years of high floods and the drought of 2010. As floods intensified, terrestrial mammal populations decreased by 95%. Fish, waterfowl, and otter (Pteronura brasiliensis) abundances increased during years of intensive floods, whereas river dolphin and caiman populations had stable abundances. Arboreal species, including, macaws, game birds, primates, felids, and other arboreal mammals had stable populations and were not affected directly by high floods. The drought of 2010 had the opposite effect: fish, waterfowl, and dolphin populations decreased, and populations of terrestrial and arboreal species remained stable. Ungulates and large rodents are important sources of food and income for local people, and large declines in these animals has shifted resource use of people living in the flooded forests away from hunting to a greater reliance on fish. © 2017 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Conservation Biology.

Effects of wildlife and cattle on tick abundance in central Kenya.

PubMed

Keesing, Felicia; Allan, Brian F; Young, Truman P; Ostfeld, Richard S

2013-09-01

In African savannas, large mammals, both wild and domestic, support an abundant and diverse population of tick ectoparasites. Because of the density of ticks and the many pathogens that they vector, cattle in East Africa are often treated with acaricides. While acaricides are known to be effective at reducing tick burdens on cattle, their effects on the overall abundance and community composition of ticks in savanna ecosystems are less well understood. It is also not known how well tick populations can be maintained in the absence of large mammals. We evaluated the effects of wildlife and of acaricide-treated cattle on host-seeking tick populations in a long-term, exclusion experiment in central Kenya. Over seven years, we sampled larval, nymphal, and adult ticks monthly on replicated treatment plots that controlled for the presence of cattle and for the presence of two guilds of large wild mammals: megaherbivores (giraffes and elephants) and all other large wild herbivores (> 15 kg). Two species of ticks were found in this habitat; across all surveys, 93% were Rhipicephalus pulchellus and 7% were R. praetextatus. The presence of acaricide-treated cattle dramatically reduced the abundance of host-seeking nymphal and adult ticks but did not affect the abundance of host-seeking larval ticks. The abundance of larval ticks was determined by the presence of large wild mammals, which appear to import gravid female ticks into the experimental plots. On plots with no large mammals, either wild or domestic, larval and nymphal ticks were rare. Adult R. pulchellus were most abundant in plots that allowed wildlife but excluded cattle. Adult R. praetextatus were relatively abundant in plots without any large mammals. These differences suggest that these ticks utilize different members of the host community. The reduction in ticks that results from the presence of acaricide-treated cattle has potential health benefits for humans and wildlife, but these benefits must be weighed against potential costs, including reduced availability of food for birds such as oxpeckers that feed on ticks.

Integrating population and genetic monitoring to understand changes in the abundance of a threatened seabird

Treesearch

Catalina Vásquez-Carrillo; R. William Henry; Laird Henkel; M. Zachariah Peery

2013-01-01

Population monitoring programs for threatened species are rarely designed to disentangle the effects of movements from changes in birth and death rates on estimated trends in abundance. Here, we illustrate how population and genetic monitoring can be integrated to understand the cause of large changes in the abundance of a threatened species of seabird, the Marbled...

Projected effects of climate and development on California wildfire emissions through 2100.

PubMed

Hurteau, Matthew D; Westerling, Anthony L; Wiedinmyer, Christine; Bryant, Benjamin P

2014-02-18

Changing climatic conditions are influencing large wildfire frequency, a globally widespread disturbance that affects both human and natural systems. Understanding how climate change, population growth, and development patterns will affect the area burned by and emissions from wildfires and how populations will in turn be exposed to emissions is critical for climate change adaptation and mitigation planning. We quantified the effects of a range of population growth and development patterns in California on emission projections from large wildfires under six future climate scenarios. Here we show that end-of-century wildfire emissions are projected to increase by 19-101% (median increase 56%) above the baseline period (1961-1990) in California for a medium-high temperature scenario, with the largest emissions increases concentrated in northern California. In contrast to other measures of wildfire impacts previously studied (e.g., structural loss), projected population growth and development patterns are unlikely to substantially influence the amount of projected statewide wildfire emissions. However, increases in wildfire emissions due to climate change may have detrimental impacts on air quality and, combined with a growing population, may result in increased population exposure to unhealthy air pollutants.

Cardiovascular Disease as a Risk Factor for Enhanced Susceptibility to Air Pollutants

EPA Science Inventory

Adverse health effects caused by airborne particular matter (PM) are restricted primarily to susceptible populations. The actual risk of anyone individual is quite small, but because of the large number of exposed people, the overall population risk is significant. Ferreting out ...

Field-based high throughput phenotyping rapidly identifies genomic regions controlling yield components in rice

DOE PAGES

Tanger, Paul; Klassen, Stephen; Mojica, Julius P.; ...

2017-02-21

In order to ensure food security in the face of population growth, decreasing water and land for agriculture, and increasing climate variability, crop yields must increase faster than the current rates. Increased yields will require implementing novel approaches in genetic discovery and breeding. We demonstrate the potential of field-based high throughput phenotyping (HTP) on a large recombinant population of rice to identify genetic variation underlying important traits. We find that detecting quantitative trait loci (QTL) with HTP phenotyping is as accurate and effective as traditional labor- intensive measures of flowering time, height, biomass, grain yield, and harvest index. Furthermore, geneticmore » mapping in this population, derived from a cross of an modern cultivar (IR64) with a landrace (Aswina), identified four alleles with negative effect on grain yield that are fixed in IR64, demonstrating the potential for HTP of large populations as a strategy for the second green revolution.« less

Field-based high throughput phenotyping rapidly identifies genomic regions controlling yield components in rice

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tanger, Paul; Klassen, Stephen; Mojica, Julius P.

In order to ensure food security in the face of population growth, decreasing water and land for agriculture, and increasing climate variability, crop yields must increase faster than the current rates. Increased yields will require implementing novel approaches in genetic discovery and breeding. We demonstrate the potential of field-based high throughput phenotyping (HTP) on a large recombinant population of rice to identify genetic variation underlying important traits. We find that detecting quantitative trait loci (QTL) with HTP phenotyping is as accurate and effective as traditional labor- intensive measures of flowering time, height, biomass, grain yield, and harvest index. Furthermore, geneticmore » mapping in this population, derived from a cross of an modern cultivar (IR64) with a landrace (Aswina), identified four alleles with negative effect on grain yield that are fixed in IR64, demonstrating the potential for HTP of large populations as a strategy for the second green revolution.« less

Patterns of genetic diversity reveal multiple introductions and recurrent founder effects during range expansion in invasive populations of Geranium carolinianum (Geraniaceae)

PubMed Central

Shirk, R Y; Hamrick, J L; Zhang, C; Qiang, S

2014-01-01

Genetic diversity, and thus the adaptive potential of invasive populations, is largely based on three factors: patterns of genetic diversity in the species' native range, the number and location of introductions and the number of founding individuals per introduction. Specifically, reductions in genetic diversity (‘founder effects') should be stronger for species with low within-population diversity in their native range and few introductions of few individuals to the invasive range. We test these predictions with Geranium carolinianum, a winter annual herb native to North America and invasive in China. We measure the extent of founder effects using allozymes and microsatellites, and ask whether this is consistent with its colonization history and patterns of diversity in the native range. In the native range, genetic diversity is higher and structure is lower than expected based on life history traits. In China, our results provide evidence for multiple introductions near Nanjing, Jiangsu province, with subsequent range expansion to the west and south. Patterns of genetic diversity across China reveal weak founder effects that are driven largely by low-diversity populations at the expansion front, away from the introduction location. This suggests that reduced diversity in China has resulted from successive founder events during range expansion, and that the loss of genetic diversity in the Nanjing area was mitigated by multiple introductions from diverse source populations. This has implications for the future of G. carolinianum in China, as continued gene flow among populations should eventually increase genetic diversity within the more recently founded populations. PMID:24346497

The effects of urbanization on population density, occupancy, and detection probability of wild felids.

PubMed

Lewis, Jesse S; Logan, Kenneth A; Alldredge, Mat W; Bailey, Larissa L; VandeWoude, Sue; Crooks, Kevin R

2015-10-01

Urbanization is a primary driver of landscape conversion, with far-reaching effects on landscape pattern and process, particularly related to the population characteristics of animals. Urbanization can alter animal movement and habitat quality, both of which can influence population abundance and persistence. We evaluated three important population characteristics (population density, site occupancy, and species detection probability) of a medium-sized and a large carnivore across varying levels of urbanization. Specifically, we studied bobcat and puma populations across wildland, exurban development, and wildland-urban interface (WUI) sampling grids to test hypotheses evaluating how urbanization affects wild felid populations and their prey. Exurban development appeared to have a greater impact on felid populations than did habitat adjacent to a major urban area (i.e., WUI); estimates of population density for both bobcats and pumas were lower in areas of exurban development compared to wildland areas, whereas population density was similar between WUI and wildland habitat. Bobcats and pumas were less likely to be detected in habitat as the amount of human disturbance associated with residential development increased at a site, which was potentially related to reduced habitat quality resulting from urbanization. However, occupancy of both felids was similar between grids in both study areas, indicating that this population metric was less sensitive than density. At the scale of the sampling grid, detection probability for bobcats in urbanized habitat was greater than in wildland areas, potentially due to restrictive movement corridors and funneling of animal movements in landscapes influenced by urbanization. Occupancy of important felid prey (cottontail rabbits and mule deer) was similar across levels of urbanization, although elk occupancy was lower in urbanized areas. Our study indicates that the conservation of medium- and large-sized felids associated with urbanization likely will be most successful if large areas of wildland habitat are maintained, even in close proximity to urban areas, and wildland habitat is not converted to low-density residential development.

Factors affecting individual foraging specialization and temporal diet stability across the range of a large “generalist” apex predator

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rosenblatt, Adam E.; Nifong, James C.; Heithaus, Michael R.; Mazzotti, Frank J.; Cherkiss, Michael S.; Jeffery, Brian M.; Elsey, Ruth M.; Decker, Rachel A.; Silliman, Brian R.; Guillette, Louis J.; Lowers, Russell H.; Larson, Justin C.

2015-01-01

Individual niche specialization (INS) is increasingly recognized as an important component of ecological and evolutionary dynamics. However, most studies that have investigated INS have focused on the effects of niche width and inter- and intraspecific competition on INS in small-bodied species for short time periods, with less attention paid to INS in large-bodied reptilian predators and the effects of available prey types on INS. We investigated the prevalence, causes, and consequences of INS in foraging behaviors across different populations of American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis), the dominant aquatic apex predator across the southeast US, using stomach contents and stable isotopes. Gut contents revealed that, over the short term, although alligator populations occupied wide ranges of the INS spectrum, general patterns were apparent. Alligator populations inhabiting lakes exhibited lower INS than coastal populations, likely driven by variation in habitat type and available prey types. Stable isotopes revealed that over longer time spans alligators exhibited remarkably consistent use of variable mixtures of carbon pools (e.g., marine and freshwater food webs). We conclude that INS in large-bodied reptilian predator populations is likely affected by variation in available prey types and habitat heterogeneity, and that INS should be incorporated into management strategies to efficiently meet intended goals. Also, ecological models, which typically do not consider behavioral variability, should include INS to increase model realism and applicability.

Factors affecting individual foraging specialization and temporal diet stability across the range of a large "generalist" apex predator.

PubMed

Rosenblatt, Adam E; Nifong, James C; Heithaus, Michael R; Mazzotti, Frank J; Cherkiss, Michael S; Jeffery, Brian M; Elsey, Ruth M; Decker, Rachel A; Silliman, Brian R; Guillette, Louis J; Lowers, Russell H; Larson, Justin C

2015-05-01

Individual niche specialization (INS) is increasingly recognized as an important component of ecological and evolutionary dynamics. However, most studies that have investigated INS have focused on the effects of niche width and inter- and intraspecific competition on INS in small-bodied species for short time periods, with less attention paid to INS in large-bodied reptilian predators and the effects of available prey types on INS. We investigated the prevalence, causes, and consequences of INS in foraging behaviors across different populations of American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis), the dominant aquatic apex predator across the southeast US, using stomach contents and stable isotopes. Gut contents revealed that, over the short term, although alligator populations occupied wide ranges of the INS spectrum, general patterns were apparent. Alligator populations inhabiting lakes exhibited lower INS than coastal populations, likely driven by variation in habitat type and available prey types. Stable isotopes revealed that over longer time spans alligators exhibited remarkably consistent use of variable mixtures of carbon pools (e.g., marine and freshwater food webs). We conclude that INS in large-bodied reptilian predator populations is likely affected by variation in available prey types and habitat heterogeneity, and that INS should be incorporated into management strategies to efficiently meet intended goals. Also, ecological models, which typically do not consider behavioral variability, should include INS to increase model realism and applicability.

Allee effect and the uncertainty of population recovery.

PubMed

Kuparinen, Anna; Keith, David M; Hutchings, Jeffrey A

2014-06-01

Recovery of depleted populations is fundamentally important for conservation biology and sustainable resource harvesting. At low abundance, population growth rate, a primary determinant of population recovery, is generally assumed to be relatively fast because competition is low (i.e., negative density dependence). But population growth can be limited in small populations by an Allee effect. This is particularly relevant for collapsed populations or species that have not recovered despite large reductions in, or elimination of, threats. We investigated how an Allee effect can influence the dynamics of recovery. We used Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) as the study organism and an empirically quantified Allee effect for the species to parameterize our simulations. We simulated recovery through an individual-based mechanistic simulation model and then compared recovery among scenarios incorporating an Allee effect, negative density dependence, and an intermediate scenario. Although an Allee effect significantly slowed recovery, such that population increase could be negligible even after 100 years or more, it also made the time required for biomass rebuilding much less predictable. Our finding that an Allee effect greatly increased the uncertainty in recovery time frames provides an empirically based explanation for why the removal of threat does not always result in the recovery of depleted populations or species. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

Landscape-level effects of forest management on bird species in the Ozarks of southeastern Missouri

Treesearch

Richard L. Clawson; John Faaborg; Wendy K. Gram; Paul A. Porneluzi

2002-01-01

This study was designed as an experiment to test how bird populations in an extensively forested landscape respond to small (group and single-tree selection) and large (clearcut) openings. Our objectives are to test the landscape-level effects of even-aged and uneven-aged forest management relative to no-harvest management on population density and reproductive success...

Spatial effects in discrete generation population models.

PubMed

Carrillo, C; Fife, P

2005-02-01

A framework is developed for constructing a large class of discrete generation, continuous space models of evolving single species populations and finding their bifurcating patterned spatial distributions. Our models involve, in separate stages, the spatial redistribution (through movement laws) and local regulation of the population; and the fundamental properties of these events in a homogeneous environment are found. Emphasis is placed on the interaction of migrating individuals with the existing population through conspecific attraction (or repulsion), as well as on random dispersion. The nature of the competition of these two effects in a linearized scenario is clarified. The bifurcation of stationary spatially patterned population distributions is studied, with special attention given to the role played by that competition.

Roles of patch characteristics, drought frequency, and restoration in long-term trends of a widespread amphibian.

PubMed

Hossack, Blake R; Adams, Michael J; Pearl, Christopher A; Wilson, Kristine W; Bull, Evelyn L; Lohr, Kristin; Patla, Debra; Pilliod, David S; Jones, Jason M; Wheeler, Kevin K; McKay, Samuel P; Corn, Paul Stephen

2013-12-01

Despite the high profile of amphibian declines and the increasing threat of drought and fragmentation to aquatic ecosystems, few studies have examined long-term rates of change for a single species across a large geographic area. We analyzed growth in annual egg-mass counts of the Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) across the northwestern United States, an area encompassing 3 genetic clades. On the basis of data collected by multiple partners from 98 water bodies between 1991 and 2011, we used state-space and linear-regression models to measure effects of patch characteristics, frequency of summer drought, and wetland restoration on population growth. Abundance increased in the 2 clades with greatest decline history, but declined where populations are considered most secure. Population growth was negatively associated with temporary hydroperiods and landscape modification (measured by the human footprint index), but was similar in modified and natural water bodies. The effect of drought was mediated by the size of the water body: populations in large water bodies maintained positive growth despite drought, whereas drought magnified declines in small water bodies. Rapid growth in restored wetlands in areas of historical population declines provided strong evidence of successful management. Our results highlight the importance of maintaining large areas of habitat and underscore the greater vulnerability of small areas of habitat to environmental stochasticity. Similar long-term growth rates in modified and natural water bodies and rapid, positive responses to restoration suggest pond construction and other forms of management can effectively increase population growth. These tools are likely to become increasingly important to mitigate effects of increased drought expected from global climate change. Papeles de las Características del Fragmento, Frecuencia de Sequía y Restauración en las Tendencias a Largo Plazo de un Anfibio Ampliamente Distribuido. Published 2013. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

The effects of landscape modifications on the long-term persistence of animal populations.

PubMed

Nabe-Nielsen, Jacob; Sibly, Richard M; Forchhammer, Mads C; Forbes, Valery E; Topping, Christopher J

2010-01-28

The effects of landscape modifications on the long-term persistence of wild animal populations is of crucial importance to wildlife managers and conservation biologists, but obtaining experimental evidence using real landscapes is usually impossible. To circumvent this problem we used individual-based models (IBMs) of interacting animals in experimental modifications of a real Danish landscape. The models incorporate as much as possible of the behaviour and ecology of four species with contrasting life-history characteristics: skylark (Alauda arvensis), vole (Microtus agrestis), a ground beetle (Bembidion lampros) and a linyphiid spider (Erigone atra). This allows us to quantify the population implications of experimental modifications of landscape configuration and composition. Starting with a real agricultural landscape, we progressively reduced landscape complexity by (i) homogenizing habitat patch shapes, (ii) randomizing the locations of the patches, and (iii) randomizing the size of the patches. The first two steps increased landscape fragmentation. We assessed the effects of these manipulations on the long-term persistence of animal populations by measuring equilibrium population sizes and time to recovery after disturbance. Patch rearrangement and the presence of corridors had a large effect on the population dynamics of species whose local success depends on the surrounding terrain. Landscape modifications that reduced population sizes increased recovery times in the short-dispersing species, making small populations vulnerable to increasing disturbance. The species that were most strongly affected by large disturbances fluctuated little in population sizes in years when no perturbations took place. Traditional approaches to the management and conservation of populations use either classical methods of population analysis, which fail to adequately account for the spatial configurations of landscapes, or landscape ecology, which accounts for landscape structure but has difficulty predicting the dynamics of populations living in them. Here we show how realistic and replicable individual-based models can bridge the gap between non-spatial population theory and non-dynamic landscape ecology. A major strength of the approach is its ability to identify population vulnerabilities not detected by standard population viability analyses.

Evaluating the effect of salinity on a simulated American Crocodile (Crocodylus acutus) population with applications to conservation and Everglades restoration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Richards, Paul M.; Mooij, Wolf M.; DeAngelis, Donald L.

2004-01-01

Everglades restoration will alter the hydrology of South Florida, affecting both water depth and salinity levels in the southern fringes of the Everglades, the habitat of the endangered American crocodile (Crocodylus acutus). A key question is what the effects of these hydrologic changes will be on the crocodile population. Reliable predictions of the viability of endangered species under a variety of management scenarios are of vital importance in conservation ecology. Juvenile American crocodiles are thought to be sensitive to high salinity levels, suffering reduced mass, and potentially reduced survivorship and recruitment. This could negatively impact the population recovery. We addressed the management issue of how the crocodile population will respond to alterations in hydrology with a spatially explicit individual-based model. The model is designed to relate water levels, salinities, and dominant vegetation to crocodile distribution, abundance, population growth, individual growth, survival, nesting effort, and nesting success. Our analysis shows that Everglades restoration, through its effects on water flow to estuaries, may benefit crocodile populations if increased freshwater flow reduces the chance that regional salinity levels exceed levels where small individuals lose mass. In addition, we conclude that conservation priority should be placed on reducing anthropogenic sources of mortality on large individuals, such as road mortality. Finally, research should focus on estimates of annual survivorship for large individuals.

The episode of genetic drift defining the migration of humans out of Africa is derived from a large east African population size.

PubMed

Elhassan, Nuha; Gebremeskel, Eyoab Iyasu; Elnour, Mohamed Ali; Isabirye, Dan; Okello, John; Hussien, Ayman; Kwiatksowski, Dominic; Hirbo, Jibril; Tishkoff, Sara; Ibrahim, Muntaser E

2014-01-01

Human genetic variation particularly in Africa is still poorly understood. This is despite a consensus on the large African effective population size compared to populations from other continents. Based on sequencing of the mitochondrial Cytochrome C Oxidase subunit II (MT-CO2), and genome wide microsatellite data we observe evidence suggesting the effective size (Ne) of humans to be larger than the current estimates, with a foci of increased genetic diversity in east Africa, and a population size of east Africans being at least 2-6 fold larger than other populations. Both phylogenetic and network analysis indicate that east Africans possess more ancestral lineages in comparison to various continental populations placing them at the root of the human evolutionary tree. Our results also affirm east Africa as the likely spot from which migration towards Asia has taken place. The study reflects the spectacular level of sequence variation within east Africans in comparison to the global sample, and appeals for further studies that may contribute towards filling the existing gaps in the database. The implication of these data to current genomic research, as well as the need to carry out defined studies of human genetic variation that includes more African populations; particularly east Africans is paramount.

Ecosystem scale declines in elk recruitment and population growth with wolf colonization: a before-after-control-impact approach.

PubMed

Christianson, David; Creel, Scott

2014-01-01

The reintroduction of wolves (Canis lupus) to Yellowstone provided the unusual opportunity for a quasi-experimental test of the effects of wolf predation on their primary prey (elk--Cervus elaphus) in a system where top-down, bottom-up, and abiotic forces on prey population dynamics were closely and consistently monitored before and after reintroduction. Here, we examined data from 33 years for 12 elk population segments spread across southwestern Montana and northwestern Wyoming in a large scale before-after-control-impact analysis of the effects of wolves on elk recruitment and population dynamics. Recruitment, as measured by the midwinter juvenile∶female ratio, was a strong determinant of elk dynamics, and declined by 35% in elk herds colonized by wolves as annual population growth shifted from increasing to decreasing. Negative effects of population density and winter severity on recruitment, long recognized as important for elk dynamics, were detected in uncolonized elk herds and in wolf-colonized elk herds prior to wolf colonization, but not after wolf colonization. Growing season precipitation and harvest had no detectable effect on recruitment in either wolf treatment or colonization period, although harvest rates of juveniles∶females declined by 37% in wolf-colonized herds. Even if it is assumed that mortality due to predation is completely additive, liberal estimates of wolf predation rates on juvenile elk could explain no more than 52% of the total decline in juvenile∶female ratios in wolf-colonized herds, after accounting for the effects of other limiting factors. Collectively, these long-term, large-scale patterns align well with prior studies that have reported substantial decrease in elk numbers immediately after wolf recolonization, relatively weak additive effects of direct wolf predation on elk survival, and decreased reproduction and recruitment with exposure to predation risk from wolves.

Implementation of a national near-road NO2 monitoring network--conference

EPA Science Inventory

In recent years, a large number of health studies have identified increased risks of adverse health effects for populations spending significant time near major roads. These studies indicate that populations living, working or going to school near major roads may be subjected to ...

Effect of the Large Scale Environment on the Internal Dynamics of Early-Type Galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maubon, G.; Prugniel, Ph.

We have studied the population-density relation in very sparse environments, from poor clusters to isolated galaxies, and we find that early-type galaxies with a young stellar population are preferably found in the lowest density environments. We show a marginal indication that this effect is due to an enhancement of the stellar formation independent of the morphological segregation, but we failed to find any effect from the internal dynamics.

The disruptive effects of pain on n-back task performance in a large general population sample

PubMed Central

Attridge, Nina; Noonan, Donna; Eccleston, Christopher; Keogh, Edmund

2015-01-01

Abstract Pain captures attention, displaces current concerns, and prioritises escape and repair. This attentional capture can be measured by its effects on general cognition. Studies on induced pain, naturally occurring acute pain, and chronic pain all demonstrate a detrimental effect on specific tasks of attention, especially those that involve working memory. However, studies to date have relied on relatively small samples and/or one type of pain, thus restricting our ability to generalise to wider populations. We investigated the effect of pain on an n-back task in a large heterogeneous sample of 1318 adults. Participants were recruited from the general population and tested through the internet. Despite the heterogeneity of pain conditions, participant characteristics, and testing environments, we found a performance decrement on the n-back task for those with pain, compared with those without pain; there were significantly more false alarms on nontarget trials. Furthermore, we also found an effect of pain intensity; performance was poorer in participants with higher intensity compared with that in those with lower intensity pain. We suggest that the effects of pain on attention found in the laboratory occur in more naturalistic settings. Pain is common in the general population, and such interruption may have important, as yet uninvestigated, consequences for tasks of everyday cognition that involve working memory, such as concentration, reasoning, motor planning, and prospective memory. PMID:26020226

Antibiotics Resistance in Rhizobium: Type, Process, Mechanism and Benefit for Agriculture.

PubMed

Naamala, Judith; Jaiswal, Sanjay K; Dakora, Felix D

2016-06-01

The use of high-quality rhizobial inoculants on agricultural legumes has contributed substantially to the N economy of farming systems through inputs from biological nitrogen fixation (BNF). Large populations of symbiotically effective rhizobia should be available in the rhizosphere for symbiotic BNF with host plants. The rhizobial populations should also be able to compete and infect host plants. However, the rhizosphere comprises large populations of different microorganisms. Some of these microorganisms naturally produce antibiotics which are lethal to susceptible rhizobial populations in the soil. Therefore, intrinsic resistance to antibiotics is a desirable trait for the rhizobial population. It increases the rhizobia's chances of growth, multiplication and persistence in the soil. With a large population of rhizobia in the soil, infectivity of host plants and the subsequent BNF efficiency can be guaranteed. This review, therefore, puts together findings by various researchers on antibiotic resistance in bacteria with the main emphasis on rhizobia. It describes the different modes of action of different antibiotics, the types of antibiotic resistance exhibited by rhizobia, the mechanisms of acquisition of antibiotic resistance in rhizobia and the levels of tolerance of different rhizobial species to different antibiotics.

Genetic basis of climatic adaptation in scots pine by bayesian quantitative trait locus analysis.

PubMed Central

Hurme, P; Sillanpää, M J; Arjas, E; Repo, T; Savolainen, O

2000-01-01

We examined the genetic basis of large adaptive differences in timing of bud set and frost hardiness between natural populations of Scots pine. As a mapping population, we considered an "open-pollinated backcross" progeny by collecting seeds of a single F(1) tree (cross between trees from southern and northern Finland) growing in southern Finland. Due to the special features of the design (no marker information available on grandparents or the father), we applied a Bayesian quantitative trait locus (QTL) mapping method developed previously for outcrossed offspring. We found four potential QTL for timing of bud set and seven for frost hardiness. Bayesian analyses detected more QTL than ANOVA for frost hardiness, but the opposite was true for bud set. These QTL included alleles with rather large effects, and additionally smaller QTL were supported. The largest QTL for bud set date accounted for about a fourth of the mean difference between populations. Thus, natural selection during adaptation has resulted in selection of at least some alleles of rather large effect. PMID:11063704

Adiabatic theory for the population distribution in the evolutionary minority game

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Kan; Wang, Bing-Hong; Yuan, Baosheng

2004-02-01

We study the evolutionary minority game (EMG) using a statistical mechanics approach. We derive a theory for the steady-state population distribution of the agents. The theory is based on an “adiabatic approximation” in which short time fluctuations in the population distribution are integrated out to obtain an effective equation governing the steady-state distribution. We discover the mechanism for the transition from segregation (into opposing groups) to clustering (towards cautious behaviors). The transition is determined by two generic factors: the market impact (of the agents’ own actions) and the short time market inefficiency (arbitrage opportunities) due to fluctuations in the numbers of agents using opposite strategies. A large market impact favors “extreme” players who choose fixed opposite strategies, while large market inefficiency favors cautious players. The transition depends on the number of agents (N) and the effective rate of strategy switching. When N is small, the market impact is relatively large; this favors the extreme behaviors. Frequent strategy switching, on the other hand, leads to a clustering of the cautious agents.

Population size effects in evolutionary dynamics on neutral networks and toy landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sumedha; Martin, Olivier C.; Peliti, Luca

2007-05-01

We study the dynamics of a population subject to selective pressures, evolving either on RNA neutral networks or on toy fitness landscapes. We discuss the spread and the neutrality of the population in the steady state. Different limits arise depending on whether selection or random drift is dominant. In the presence of strong drift we show that the observables depend mainly on Mμ, M being the population size and μ the mutation rate, while corrections to this scaling go as 1/M: such corrections can be quite large in the presence of selection if there are barriers in the fitness landscape. Also we find that the convergence to the large-Mμ limit is linear in 1/Mμ. Finally we introduce a protocol that minimizes drift; then observables scale like 1/M rather than 1/(Mμ), allowing one to determine the large-M limit more quickly when μ is small; furthermore the genotypic diversity increases from O(lnM) to O(M).

Cost-effectiveness of a potential future Helicobacter pylori vaccine in the Netherlands: the impact of varying the discount rate for health.

PubMed

de Vries, Robin; Klok, Rogier M; Brouwers, Jacobus R B J; Postma, Maarten J

2009-02-05

To estimate the cost-effectiveness of a potential Helicobacter pylori (HP) vaccine for the Dutch situation, we developed a Markov model. Several HP prevalence scenarios were assessed. Additionally, we assessed the impact of the discount rate for health on the outcomes, as this influence can be profound for vaccines. When applying the current discount rate of 1.5% for health, the expected cost-effectiveness of HP vaccination is estimated below the informal Dutch threshold of euro 20,000/LYG when the HP prevalence is assumed > or =20% in the Dutch population. In conclusion, we showed that HP vaccination could possibly be a cost-effective intervention. However, this depends to a large extend on the prevalence of HP in the population. Furthermore, we showed the large impact of the discount rate for health on the cost-effectiveness of a HP vaccination program, illustrative for other vaccination programs.

Invasive lionfish had no measurable effect on prey fish community structure across the Belizean Barrier Reef

PubMed Central

Valdivia, Abel; Cox, Courtney E.; Silbiger, Nyssa J.; Bruno, John F.

2017-01-01

Invasive lionfish are assumed to significantly affect Caribbean reef fish communities. However, evidence of lionfish effects on native reef fishes is based on uncontrolled observational studies or small-scale, unrepresentative experiments, with findings ranging from no effect to large effects on prey density and richness. Moreover, whether lionfish affect populations and communities of native reef fishes at larger, management-relevant scales is unknown. The purpose of this study was to assess the effects of lionfish on coral reef prey fish communities in a natural complex reef system. We quantified lionfish and the density, richness, and composition of native prey fishes (0–10 cm total length) at sixteen reefs along ∼250 km of the Belize Barrier Reef from 2009 to 2013. Lionfish invaded our study sites during this four-year longitudinal study, thus our sampling included fish community structure before and after our sites were invaded, i.e., we employed a modified BACI design. We found no evidence that lionfish measurably affected the density, richness, or composition of prey fishes. It is possible that higher lionfish densities are necessary to detect an effect of lionfish on prey populations at this relatively large spatial scale. Alternatively, negative effects of lionfish on prey could be small, essentially undetectable, and ecologically insignificant at our study sites. Other factors that influence the dynamics of reef fish populations including reef complexity, resource availability, recruitment, predation, and fishing could swamp any effects of lionfish on prey populations. PMID:28560093

Invasive lionfish had no measurable effect on prey fish community structure across the Belizean Barrier Reef.

PubMed

Hackerott, Serena; Valdivia, Abel; Cox, Courtney E; Silbiger, Nyssa J; Bruno, John F

2017-01-01

Invasive lionfish are assumed to significantly affect Caribbean reef fish communities. However, evidence of lionfish effects on native reef fishes is based on uncontrolled observational studies or small-scale, unrepresentative experiments, with findings ranging from no effect to large effects on prey density and richness. Moreover, whether lionfish affect populations and communities of native reef fishes at larger, management-relevant scales is unknown. The purpose of this study was to assess the effects of lionfish on coral reef prey fish communities in a natural complex reef system. We quantified lionfish and the density, richness, and composition of native prey fishes (0-10 cm total length) at sixteen reefs along ∼250 km of the Belize Barrier Reef from 2009 to 2013. Lionfish invaded our study sites during this four-year longitudinal study, thus our sampling included fish community structure before and after our sites were invaded, i.e., we employed a modified BACI design. We found no evidence that lionfish measurably affected the density, richness, or composition of prey fishes. It is possible that higher lionfish densities are necessary to detect an effect of lionfish on prey populations at this relatively large spatial scale. Alternatively, negative effects of lionfish on prey could be small, essentially undetectable, and ecologically insignificant at our study sites. Other factors that influence the dynamics of reef fish populations including reef complexity, resource availability, recruitment, predation, and fishing could swamp any effects of lionfish on prey populations.

Male mating strategy and the introgression of a growth hormone transgene.

PubMed

Valosaari, Kata-Riina; Aikio, Sami; Kaitala, Veijo

2008-11-01

Escaped transgenic organisms (GMO's) may threaten the populations of their wild relatives if able to hybridize with each other. The introgression of a growth enhancement transgene into a wild Atlantic salmon population may be affected by the transgene's effects not only on fitness parameters, but also on mating behaviour. Large anadromous GMO males are most preferred in mating, but a transgene can also give the large sneakers a reproductive advantage over the smaller wild individuals. With a simulation model, we studied whether the increase in the proportion and mating success of sneakers in transgenic and hybrid genotypes could facilitate the introgression of a transgene into wild population after the release of GMOs. The model combines population dynamics and Mendelian inheritance of a transgenic trait. We found that the introgression of the transgene is strongly affected by the greater mating preference of large GMO males. Furthermore, the difference in reproductive success between the anadromous versus sneaker strategy defines how much GMO's have to be preferred to be able to invade. These results emphasize the importance of detailed knowledge of reproductive systems and the effect of a transgene on the phenotype and behaviour of GMOs when assessing the consequences of their release or escape to the wild.

Male mating strategy and the introgression of a growth hormone transgene

PubMed Central

Valosaari, Kata-Riina; Aikio, Sami; Kaitala, Veijo

2008-01-01

Escaped transgenic organisms (GMO's) may threaten the populations of their wild relatives if able to hybridize with each other. The introgression of a growth enhancement transgene into a wild Atlantic salmon population may be affected by the transgene's effects not only on fitness parameters, but also on mating behaviour. Large anadromous GMO males are most preferred in mating, but a transgene can also give the large sneakers a reproductive advantage over the smaller wild individuals. With a simulation model, we studied whether the increase in the proportion and mating success of sneakers in transgenic and hybrid genotypes could facilitate the introgression of a transgene into wild population after the release of GMOs. The model combines population dynamics and Mendelian inheritance of a transgenic trait. We found that the introgression of the transgene is strongly affected by the greater mating preference of large GMO males. Furthermore, the difference in reproductive success between the anadromous versus sneaker strategy defines how much GMO's have to be preferred to be able to invade. These results emphasize the importance of detailed knowledge of reproductive systems and the effect of a transgene on the phenotype and behaviour of GMOs when assessing the consequences of their release or escape to the wild. PMID:25567801

The impact of large terrestrial carnivores on Pleistocene ecosystems

PubMed Central

Van Valkenburgh, Blaire; Ripple, William J.; Meloro, Carlo; Roth, V. Louise

2016-01-01

Large mammalian terrestrial herbivores, such as elephants, have dramatic effects on the ecosystems they inhabit and at high population densities their environmental impacts can be devastating. Pleistocene terrestrial ecosystems included a much greater diversity of megaherbivores (e.g., mammoths, mastodons, giant ground sloths) and thus a greater potential for widespread habitat degradation if population sizes were not limited. Nevertheless, based on modern observations, it is generally believed that populations of megaherbivores (>800 kg) are largely immune to the effects of predation and this perception has been extended into the Pleistocene. However, as shown here, the species richness of big carnivores was greater in the Pleistocene and many of them were significantly larger than their modern counterparts. Fossil evidence suggests that interspecific competition among carnivores was relatively intense and reveals that some individuals specialized in consuming megaherbivores. To estimate the potential impact of Pleistocene large carnivores, we use both historic and modern data on predator–prey body mass relationships to predict size ranges of their typical and maximum prey when hunting as individuals and in groups. These prey size ranges are then compared with estimates of juvenile and subadult proboscidean body sizes derived from extant elephant growth data. Young proboscideans at their most vulnerable age fall within the predicted prey size ranges of many of the Pleistocene carnivores. Predation on juveniles can have a greater impact on megaherbivores because of their long interbirth intervals, and consequently, we argue that Pleistocene carnivores had the capacity to, and likely did, limit megaherbivore population sizes. PMID:26504224

The Educational Effects of Rapid Rural Population Growth.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ross, Peggy J.; Green, Bernal L.

Rapid population growth in rural areas has confronted rural communities and particularly rural educational systems with a number of problems. Sudden, large increases in students crowd school facilities and strain budgets. The different values, attitudes, and orientations toward education of the newcomers act as a catalyst for changes and can cause…

Cost-effectiveness of oral cholera vaccine in a stable refugee population at risk for epidemic cholera and in a population with endemic cholera.

PubMed Central

Murray, J.; McFarland, D. A.; Waldman, R. J.

1998-01-01

Recent large epidemics of cholera with high incidence and associated mortality among refugees have raised the question of whether oral cholera vaccines should be considered as an additional preventive measure in high-risk populations. The potential impact of oral cholera vaccines on populations prone to seasonal endemic cholera has also been questioned. This article reviews the potential cost-effectiveness of B-subunit, killed whole-cell (BS-WC) oral cholera vaccine in a stable refugee population and in a population with endemic cholera. In the population at risk for endemic cholera, mass vaccination with BS-WC vaccine is the least cost-effective intervention compared with the provision of safe drinking-water and sanitation or with treatment of the disease. In a refugee population at risk for epidemic disease, the cost-effectiveness of vaccination is similar to that of providing safe drinking-water and sanitation alone, though less cost-effective than treatment alone or treatment combined with the provision of water and sanitation. The implications of these data for public health decision-makers and programme managers are discussed. There is a need for better information on the feasibility and costs of administering oral cholera vaccine in refugee populations and populations with endemic cholera. PMID:9803585

Spatial extent of analysis influences observed patterns of population genetic structure in a widespread darter species (Percidae)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Argentina, Jane E.; Angermeier, Paul L.; Hallerman, Eric M.; Welsh, Stuart A.

2018-01-01

Connectivity among stream fish populations allows for exchange of genetic material and helps maintain genetic diversity, adaptive potential and population stability over time. Changes in species demographics and population connectivity have the potential to permanently alter the genetic patterns of stream fish, although these changes through space and time are variable and understudied in small‐bodied freshwater fish.As a spatially widespread, common species of benthic freshwater fish, the variegate darter (Etheostoma variatum) is a model species for documenting how patterns of genetic structure and diversity respond to increasing isolation due to large dams and how scale of study may shape our understanding of these patterns. We sampled variegate darters from 34 sites across their range in the North American Ohio River basin and examined how patterns of genetic structure and diversity within and between populations responded to historical population changes and dams within and between populations.Spatial scale and configuration of genetic structure varied across the eight identified populations, from tributaries within a watershed, to a single watershed, to multiple watersheds that encompass Ohio River mainstem habitats. This multiwatershed pattern of population structuring suggests genetic dispersal across large distances was and may continue to be common, although some populations remain isolated despite no apparent structural dispersal barriers. Populations with low effective population sizes and evidence of past population bottlenecks showed low allelic richness, but diversity patterns were not related to watershed size, a surrogate for habitat availability. Pairwise genetic differentiation (FST) increased with fluvial distance and was related to both historic and contemporary processes. Genetic diversity changes were influenced by underlying population size and stability, and while instream barriers were not strong determinants of genetic structuring or loss of genetic diversity, they reduce population connectivity and may impact long‐term population persistence.The broad spatial scale of this study demonstrated the large spatial extent of some variegate darter populations and indicated that dispersal is more extensive than expected given the movement patterns typically observed for small‐bodied, benthic fish. Dam impacts depended on underlying population size and stability, with larger populations more resilient to genetic drift and allelic richness loss than smaller populations.Other darters that inhabit large river habitats may show similar patterns in landscape‐scale studies, and large river barriers may impact populations of small‐bodied fish more than previously expected. Estimation of dispersal rates and behaviours is critical to conservation of imperilled riverine species such as darters.

Environmental Contaminants and Terrestrial Vertebrates: Effects on Populations, Communities, and Ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

2000-01-01

The desire of resource managers, risk assessors, and the general public to better understand the consequences of environmental contamination has produced a strong and growing need for information on the effects of contaminants on populations and groups of species, and over moderate to large areas of land or water. However, the problems associated with research involving populations and groups of species or large and complex geographic areas, especially in terrestrial environments, are well known within the scientific community. With the previous thoughts in mind, an interactive symposium was held at the University of Maryland in October 1998. The purpose of the symposium was to review and critically evaluate our understanding of the effects of contaminants on terrestrial vertebrates at levels of organization above that of the individual. Invited background and technical presentations provided a common baseline of information for symposium participants. Discussion groups were then asked to critically evaluate the topics of two technical sessions. Several presentations of recent or ongoing research provided participants with examples of current approaches to assessments of the effects of contaminants on terrestrial vertebrates at the population or higher level of organization. The book consists of 10 chapters written by presenters at the symposium and three chapters conveying the reports of discussion group.

The demographic consequences of growing older and bigger in oyster populations.

PubMed

Moore, Jacob L; Lipcius, Romuald N; Puckett, Brandon; Schreiber, Sebastian J

2016-10-01

Structured population models, particularly size- or age-structured, have a long history of informing conservation and natural resource management. While size is often easier to measure than age and is the focus of many management strategies, age-structure can have important effects on population dynamics that are not captured in size-only models. However, relatively few studies have included the simultaneous effects of both age- and size-structure. To better understand how population structure, particularly that of age and size, impacts restoration and management decisions, we developed and compared a size-structured integral projection model (IPM) and an age- and size-structured IPM, using a population of Crassostrea gigas oysters in the northeastern Pacific Ocean. We analyzed sensitivity of model results across values of local retention that give populations decreasing in size to populations increasing in size. We found that age- and size-structured models yielded the best fit to the demographic data and provided more reliable results about long-term demography. Elasticity analysis showed that population growth rate was most sensitive to changes in the survival of both large (>175 mm shell length) and small (<75 mm shell length) oysters, indicating that a maximum size limit, in addition to a minimum size limit, could be an effective strategy for maintaining a sustainable population. In contrast, the purely size-structured model did not detect the importance of large individuals. Finally, patterns in stable age and stable size distributions differed between populations decreasing in size due to limited local retention and populations increasing in size due to high local retention. These patterns can be used to determine population status and restoration success. The methodology described here provides general insight into the necessity of including both age- and size-structure into modeling frameworks when using population models to inform restoration and management decisions. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

The population threat.

PubMed

Teitelbaum, M S

1992-01-01

Commentary is provided on the challenges faced by the new Clinton administration in formulating US key foreign policy initiatives. There is an urgent need to provide balanced and effective foreign aid for reducing high fertility rates in the developing world. There is also a need to effectively monitor the large migrations of populations. Over the past 10 years, the US has not been actively practicing world leadership on population issues. 3 changes in 1993 give impetus to redirect foreign policy: 1) the waning influence of fringe groups who controlled population issues; 2) the campaign promises to restore UN population stabilization programs; and 3) the evidence from the Persian Gulf and Yugoslavia that demographic issues require planning and assessment. Global population growth has been concentrated in the past 40 years, in part due to mortality declines and sustained high fertility. Of significance is the rapidness and momentum of growth. A high percentage are and will be children. Urban population is also growing rapidly in high fertility countries. Countries with high fertility and significant rural-to-urban migration also have large international migrations. The evolution of policy since the 1950s, which for the most part ignored population issues, is discussed. The American debates have been charged with emotionalism: about human sexuality, legitimacy of voluntary fertility control, the role and status of women and men, abortion, intergenerational transfer of obligations, ethnic solidarity and the sovereignty of national borders, and the proper roles of the state versus the marketplace. There have been over 200 years of ideological argument over population issues. The Malthusian argument was that large population size did not increase prosperity, and growth should be limited. The Marxist-Leninist position was that contraception was Malthusian, abortion was a woman's right, and population growth was neutral. By late 1970 the Chinese Maoists adopted the moral contraints urged by Malthus. US policies in the 1980s amounted to defunding of population programs and ideological suppression. Seven steps in US policy change are indicated. Centralization of responsibilities for population issues should be determined within government; the Department of State or the National Security Council are likely choices.

Fixation of slightly beneficial mutations: effects of life history.

PubMed

Vindenes, Yngvild; Lee, Aline Magdalena; Engen, Steinar; Saether, Bernt-Erik

2010-04-01

Recent studies of rates of evolution have revealed large systematic differences among organisms with different life histories, both within and among taxa. Here, we consider how life history may affect the rate of evolution via its influence on the fixation probability of slightly beneficial mutations. Our approach is based on diffusion modeling for a finite, stage-structured population with stochastic population dynamics. The results, which are verified by computer simulations, demonstrate that even with complex population structure just two demographic parameters are sufficient to give an accurate approximation of the fixation probability of a slightly beneficial mutation. These are the reproductive value of the stage in which the mutation first occurs and the demographic variance of the population. The demographic variance also determines what influence population size has on the fixation probability. This model represents a substantial generalization of earlier models, covering a large range of life histories.

Impacts of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill evaluated using an end-to-end ecosystem model.

PubMed

Ainsworth, Cameron H; Paris, Claire B; Perlin, Natalie; Dornberger, Lindsey N; Patterson, William F; Chancellor, Emily; Murawski, Steve; Hollander, David; Daly, Kendra; Romero, Isabel C; Coleman, Felicia; Perryman, Holly

2018-01-01

We use a spatially explicit biogeochemical end-to-end ecosystem model, Atlantis, to simulate impacts from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill and subsequent recovery of fish guilds. Dose-response relationships with expected oil concentrations were utilized to estimate the impact on fish growth and mortality rates. We also examine the effects of fisheries closures and impacts on recruitment. We validate predictions of the model by comparing population trends and age structure before and after the oil spill with fisheries independent data. The model suggests that recruitment effects and fishery closures had little influence on biomass dynamics. However, at the assumed level of oil concentrations and toxicity, impacts on fish mortality and growth rates were large and commensurate with observations. Sensitivity analysis suggests the biomass of large reef fish decreased by 25% to 50% in areas most affected by the spill, and biomass of large demersal fish decreased even more, by 40% to 70%. Impacts on reef and demersal forage caused starvation mortality in predators and increased reliance on pelagic forage. Impacts on the food web translated effects of the spill far away from the oiled area. Effects on age structure suggest possible delayed impacts on fishery yields. Recovery of high-turnover populations generally is predicted to occur within 10 years, but some slower-growing populations may take 30+ years to fully recover.

Projections of Water Stress Based on an Ensemble of Socioeconomic Growth and Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study in Asia

PubMed Central

Fant, Charles; Schlosser, C. Adam; Gao, Xiang; Strzepek, Kenneth; Reilly, John

2016-01-01

The sustainability of future water resources is of paramount importance and is affected by many factors, including population, wealth and climate. Inherent in current methods to estimate these factors in the future is the uncertainty of their prediction. In this study, we integrate a large ensemble of scenarios—internally consistent across economics, emissions, climate, and population—to develop a risk portfolio of water stress over a large portion of Asia that includes China, India, and Mainland Southeast Asia in a future with unconstrained emissions. We isolate the effects of socioeconomic growth from the effects of climate change in order to identify the primary drivers of stress on water resources. We find that water needs related to socioeconomic changes, which are currently small, are likely to increase considerably in the future, often overshadowing the effect of climate change on levels of water stress. As a result, there is a high risk of severe water stress in densely populated watersheds by 2050, compared to recent history. There is strong evidence to suggest that, in the absence of autonomous adaptation or societal response, a much larger portion of the region’s population will live in water-stressed regions in the near future. Tools and studies such as these can effectively investigate large-scale system sensitivities and can be useful in engaging and informing decision makers. PMID:27028871

Impacts of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill evaluated using an end-to-end ecosystem model

PubMed Central

Paris, Claire B.; Perlin, Natalie; Dornberger, Lindsey N.; Patterson, William F.; Chancellor, Emily; Murawski, Steve; Hollander, David; Daly, Kendra; Romero, Isabel C.; Coleman, Felicia; Perryman, Holly

2018-01-01

We use a spatially explicit biogeochemical end-to-end ecosystem model, Atlantis, to simulate impacts from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill and subsequent recovery of fish guilds. Dose-response relationships with expected oil concentrations were utilized to estimate the impact on fish growth and mortality rates. We also examine the effects of fisheries closures and impacts on recruitment. We validate predictions of the model by comparing population trends and age structure before and after the oil spill with fisheries independent data. The model suggests that recruitment effects and fishery closures had little influence on biomass dynamics. However, at the assumed level of oil concentrations and toxicity, impacts on fish mortality and growth rates were large and commensurate with observations. Sensitivity analysis suggests the biomass of large reef fish decreased by 25% to 50% in areas most affected by the spill, and biomass of large demersal fish decreased even more, by 40% to 70%. Impacts on reef and demersal forage caused starvation mortality in predators and increased reliance on pelagic forage. Impacts on the food web translated effects of the spill far away from the oiled area. Effects on age structure suggest possible delayed impacts on fishery yields. Recovery of high-turnover populations generally is predicted to occur within 10 years, but some slower-growing populations may take 30+ years to fully recover. PMID:29370187

Do less populous countries receive more development assistance for health per capita? Longitudinal evidence for 143 countries, 1990-2014.

PubMed

Martinsen, Lene; Ottersen, Trygve; Dieleman, Joseph L; Hessel, Philipp; Kinge, Jonas Minet; Skirbekk, Vegard

2018-01-01

Per capita allocation of overall development assistance has been shown to be biased towards countries with lower population size, meaning funders tend to provide proportionally less development assistance to countries with large populations. Individuals that happen to be part of large populations therefore tend to receive less assistance. However, no study has investigated whether this is also true regarding development assistance for health. We examined whether this so-called 'small-country bias' exists in the health aid sector. We analysed the effect of a country's population size on the receipt of development assistance for health per capita (in 2015 US$) among 143 countries over the period 1990-2014. Explanatory variables shown to be associated with receipt of development assistance for health were included: gross domestic product per capita, burden of disease, under-5 mortality rate, maternal mortality ratio, vaccination coverage (diphtheria, tetanus and pertussis) and fertility rate. We used the within-between regression analysis, popularised by Mundluck, as well as a number of robustness tests, including ordinary least squares, random-effects and fixed-effects regressions. Our results suggest there exists significant negative effect of population size on the amount of development assistance for health per capita countries received. According to the within-between estimator, a 1% larger population size is associated with a 0.4% lower per capita development assistance for health between countries (-0.37, 95% CI -0.45 to -0.28), and 2.3% lower per capita development assistance for health within countries (-2.29, 95% CI -3.86 to -0.72). Our findings support the hypothesis that small-country bias exists within international health aid, as has been previously documented for aid in general. In a rapidly changing landscape of global health and development, the inclusion of population size in allocation decisions should be challenged on the basis of equitable access to healthcare and health aid effectiveness.

Correlation between measles vaccine doses: implications for the maintenance of elimination.

PubMed

McKee, A; Ferrari, M J; Shea, K

2018-03-01

Measles eradication efforts have been successful at achieving elimination in many countries worldwide. Such countries actively work to maintain this elimination by continuing to improve coverage of two routine doses of measles vaccine following measles elimination. While improving measles vaccine coverage is always beneficial, we show, using a steady-state analysis of a dynamical model, that the correlation between populations receiving the first and second routine dose also has a significant impact on the population immunity achieved by a specified combination of first and second dose coverage. If the second dose is administered to people independently of whether they had the first dose, high second-dose coverage improves the proportion of the population receiving at least one dose, and will have a large effect on population immunity. If the second dose is administered only to people who have had the first dose, high second-dose coverage reduces the rate of primary vaccine failure, but does not reach people who missed the first dose; this will therefore have a relatively small effect on population immunity. When doses are administered dependently, and assuming the first dose has higher coverage, increasing the coverage of the first dose has a larger impact on population immunity than does increasing the coverage of the second. Correlation between vaccine doses has a significant impact on the level of population immunity maintained by current vaccination coverage, potentially outweighing the effects of age structure and, in some cases, recent improvements in vaccine coverage. It is therefore important to understand the correlation between vaccine doses as such correlation may have a large impact on the effectiveness of measles vaccination strategies.

Cross-seasonal effects on waterfowl productivity: Implications under climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Osnas, Erik; Zhao, Qing; Runge, Michael C.; Boomer, G Scott

2016-01-01

Previous efforts to relate winter-ground precipitation to subsequent reproductive success as measured by the ratio of juveniles to adults in the autumn failed to account for increased vulnerability of juvenile ducks to hunting and uncertainty in the estimated age ratio. Neglecting increased juvenile vulnerability will positively bias the mean productivity estimate, and neglecting increased vulnerability and estimation uncertainty will positively bias the year-to-year variance in productivity because raw age ratios are the product of sampling variation, the year-specific vulnerability, and year-specific reproductive success. Therefore, we estimated the effects of cumulative winter precipitation in the California Central Valley and the Mississippi Alluvial Valley on pintail (Anas acuta) and mallard (Anas platyrhnchos) reproduction, respectively, using hierarchical Bayesian methods to correct for sampling bias in productivity estimates and observation error in covariates. We applied the model to a hunter-collected parts survey implemented by the United States Fish and Wildlife Service and band recoveries reported to the United States Geological Survey Bird Banding Laboratory using data from 1961 to 2013. We compared our results to previous estimates that used simple linear regression on uncorrected age ratios from a smaller subset of years in pintail (1961–1985). Like previous analyses, we found large and consistent effects of population size and wetland conditions in prairie Canada on mallard productivity, and large effects of population size and mean latitude of the observed breeding population on pintail productivity. Unlike previous analyses, we report a large amount of uncertainty in the estimated effects of wintering-ground precipitation on pintail and mallard productivity, with considerable uncertainty in the sign of the estimated main effect, although the posterior medians of precipitation effects were consistent with past studies. We found more consistent estimates in the sign of an interaction effect between population size and precipitation, suggesting that wintering-ground precipitation has a larger effect in years of high population size, especially for pintail. When we used the estimated effects in a population model to derive a sustainable harvest and population size projection (i.e., a yield curve), there was considerable uncertainty in the effect of increased or decreased wintering-ground precipitation on sustainable harvest potential and population size. These results suggest that the mechanism of cross-seasonal effects between winter habitat and reproduction in ducks occurs through a reduction in the strength of density dependence in years of above-average wintering-ground precipitation. We suggest additional investigation of the underlying mechanisms and that habitat managers and decision-makers consider the level of uncertainty in these estimates when attempting to integrate habitat management and harvest management decisions. Collection of annual data on the status of wintering-ground habitat in a rigorous sampling framework would likely be the most direct way to improve understanding of mechanisms and inform management.

Large roads reduce bat activity across multiple species.

PubMed

Kitzes, Justin; Merenlender, Adina

2014-01-01

Although the negative impacts of roads on many terrestrial vertebrate and bird populations are well documented, there have been few studies of the road ecology of bats. To examine the effects of large roads on bat populations, we used acoustic recorders to survey bat activity along ten 300 m transects bordering three large highways in northern California, applying a newly developed statistical classifier to identify recorded calls to the species level. Nightly counts of bat passes were analyzed with generalized linear mixed models to determine the relationship between bat activity and distance from a road. Total bat activity recorded at points adjacent to roads was found to be approximately one-half the level observed at 300 m. Statistically significant road effects were also found for the Brazilian free-tailed bat (Tadarida brasiliensis), big brown bat (Eptesicus fuscus), hoary bat (Lasiurus cinereus), and silver-haired bat (Lasionycteris noctivagans). The road effect was found to be temperature dependent, with hot days both increasing total activity at night and reducing the difference between activity levels near and far from roads. These results suggest that the environmental impacts of road construction may include degradation of bat habitat and that mitigation activities for this habitat loss may be necessary to protect bat populations.

Do Mediterranean crickets Gryllus bimaculatus De Geer (Orthoptera: Gryllidae) come from the Mediterranean? Largescale phylogeography and regional gene flow.

PubMed

Ferreira, M; Ferguson, J W H

2010-02-01

We investigate the degree of between-population genetic differentiation in the Mediterranean field cricket Gryllus bimaculatus, as well as the possible causes of such differentiation. Using cytochrome b mtDNA sequences, we estimate genetic variation in G. bimaculatus from seven South African and two Mediterranean populations. Within-population genetic variation in Europe (two haplotypes, one unique to a single individual) suggest low effective population size and strong bottlenecks with associated founder effects, probably due to cold winter environments in Europe that limit reproduction to a short part of the summer. The likely cause for this is the daily maxima in winter temperatures that fall below the critical level of 16 degrees C (enabling normal calling and courtship behaviour) in Mediterranean Europe, whereas the equivalent temperatures in southern Africa are above this limit and enable reproduction over a large part of the year. European genetic variants were either shared with Africa or closely related to African haplotypes. For survival, European populations are probably dependent on immigration from other areas, including Africa. South African populations have low but measurable gene flow with Europe and show significant between-population genetic differentiation (30 haplotypes). Isolation-by-distance is not sufficient to explain the degree of between-population genetic differences observed, and a large degree of dispersal is also required in order to account for the observed patterns. Differences in morphology and calling behaviour among these populations are underlied by these genetic differences.

Landscape attributes and life history variability shape genetic structure of trout populations in a stream network

USGS Publications Warehouse

Neville, H.M.; Dunham, J.B.; Peacock, M.M.

2006-01-01

Spatial and temporal landscape patterns have long been recognized to influence biological processes, but these processes often operate at scales that are difficult to study by conventional means. Inferences from genetic markers can overcome some of these limitations. We used a landscape genetics approach to test hypotheses concerning landscape processes influencing the demography of Lahontan cutthroat trout in a complex stream network in the Great Basin desert of the western US. Predictions were tested with population- and individual-based analyses of microsatellite DNA variation, reflecting patterns of dispersal, population stability, and local effective population sizes. Complementary genetic inferences suggested samples from migratory corridors housed a mixture of fish from tributaries, as predicted based on assumed migratory life histories in those habitats. Also as predicted, populations presumed to have greater proportions of migratory fish or from physically connected, large, or high quality habitats had higher genetic variability and reduced genetic differentiation from other populations. Populations thought to contain largely non-migratory individuals generally showed the opposite pattern, suggesting behavioral isolation. Estimated effective sizes were small, and we identified significant and severe genetic bottlenecks in several populations that were isolated, recently founded, or that inhabit streams that desiccate frequently. Overall, this work suggested that Lahontan cutthroat trout populations in stream networks are affected by a combination of landscape and metapopulation processes. Results also demonstrated that genetic patterns can reveal unexpected processes, even within a system that is well studied from a conventional ecological perspective. ?? Springer 2006.

Simultaneous effects of food limitation and inducible resistance on herbivore population dynamics.

PubMed

Abbott, Karen C; Morris, William F; Gross, Kevin

2008-02-01

Many herbivore populations fluctuate temporally, but the causes of those fluctuations remain unclear. Plant inducible resistance can theoretically cause herbivore population fluctuations, because herbivory may induce plant changes that reduce the survival or reproduction of later-feeding herbivores. Herbivory can also simply reduce the quantity of food available for later feeders and this, too, can cause population fluctuations. Inducible resistance and food limitation often occur simultaneously, yet whether they jointly facilitate or suppress herbivore fluctuations remains largely unexplored. We present models that suggest that food limitation and inducible resistance may have synergistic effects on herbivore population dynamics. The population-level response of the food plant to herbivory and the details of how inducible resistance affects herbivore performance both influence the resulting herbivore dynamics. Our results identify some biological properties of plant-herbivore systems that might determine whether or not cycles occur, and suggest that future empirical and theoretical population dynamics studies should account for the effects of both food limitation and inducible resistance.

How Obstacles Perturb Population Fronts and Alter Their Genetic Structure.

PubMed

Möbius, Wolfram; Murray, Andrew W; Nelson, David R

2015-12-01

As populations spread into new territory, environmental heterogeneities can shape the population front and genetic composition. We focus here on the effects of an important building block of heterogeneous environments, isolated obstacles. With a combination of experiments, theory, and simulation, we show how isolated obstacles both create long-lived distortions of the front shape and amplify the effect of genetic drift. A system of bacteriophage T7 spreading on a spatially heterogeneous Escherichia coli lawn serves as an experimental model system to study population expansions. Using an inkjet printer, we create well-defined replicates of the lawn and quantitatively study the population expansion of phage T7. The transient perturbations of the population front found in the experiments are well described by a model in which the front moves with constant speed. Independent of the precise details of the expansion, we show that obstacles create a kink in the front that persists over large distances and is insensitive to the details of the obstacle's shape. The small deviations between experimental findings and the predictions of the constant speed model can be understood with a more general reaction-diffusion model, which reduces to the constant speed model when the obstacle size is large compared to the front width. Using this framework, we demonstrate that frontier genotypes just grazing the side of an isolated obstacle increase in abundance, a phenomenon we call 'geometry-enhanced genetic drift', complementary to the founder effect associated with spatial bottlenecks. Bacterial range expansions around nutrient-poor barriers and stochastic simulations confirm this prediction. The effect of the obstacle on the genealogy of individuals at the front is characterized by simulations and rationalized using the constant speed model. Lastly, we consider the effect of two obstacles on front shape and genetic composition of the population illuminating the effects expected from complex environments with many obstacles.

How Obstacles Perturb Population Fronts and Alter Their Genetic Structure

PubMed Central

Möbius, Wolfram; Murray, Andrew W.; Nelson, David R.

2015-01-01

As populations spread into new territory, environmental heterogeneities can shape the population front and genetic composition. We focus here on the effects of an important building block of heterogeneous environments, isolated obstacles. With a combination of experiments, theory, and simulation, we show how isolated obstacles both create long-lived distortions of the front shape and amplify the effect of genetic drift. A system of bacteriophage T7 spreading on a spatially heterogeneous Escherichia coli lawn serves as an experimental model system to study population expansions. Using an inkjet printer, we create well-defined replicates of the lawn and quantitatively study the population expansion of phage T7. The transient perturbations of the population front found in the experiments are well described by a model in which the front moves with constant speed. Independent of the precise details of the expansion, we show that obstacles create a kink in the front that persists over large distances and is insensitive to the details of the obstacle’s shape. The small deviations between experimental findings and the predictions of the constant speed model can be understood with a more general reaction-diffusion model, which reduces to the constant speed model when the obstacle size is large compared to the front width. Using this framework, we demonstrate that frontier genotypes just grazing the side of an isolated obstacle increase in abundance, a phenomenon we call ‘geometry-enhanced genetic drift’, complementary to the founder effect associated with spatial bottlenecks. Bacterial range expansions around nutrient-poor barriers and stochastic simulations confirm this prediction. The effect of the obstacle on the genealogy of individuals at the front is characterized by simulations and rationalized using the constant speed model. Lastly, we consider the effect of two obstacles on front shape and genetic composition of the population illuminating the effects expected from complex environments with many obstacles. PMID:26696601

Insights into DDT Resistance from the Drosophila melanogaster Genetic Reference Panel

PubMed Central

Schmidt, Joshua M.; Battlay, Paul; Gledhill-Smith, Rebecca S.; Good, Robert T.; Lumb, Chris; Fournier-Level, Alexandre; Robin, Charles

2017-01-01

Insecticide resistance is considered a classic model of microevolution, where a strong selective agent is applied to a large natural population, resulting in a change in frequency of alleles that confer resistance. While many insecticide resistance variants have been characterized at the gene level, they are typically single genes of large effect identified in highly resistant pest species. In contrast, multiple variants have been implicated in DDT resistance in Drosophila melanogaster; however, only the Cyp6g1 locus has previously been shown to be relevant to field populations. Here we use genome-wide association studies (GWAS) to identify DDT-associated polygenes and use selective sweep analyses to assess their adaptive significance. We identify and verify two candidate DDT resistance loci. A largely uncharacterized gene, CG10737, has a function in muscles that ameliorates the effects of DDT, while a putative detoxifying P450, Cyp6w1, shows compelling evidence of positive selection. PMID:28935691

An Ancestral Recombination Graph for Diploid Populations with Skewed Offspring Distribution

PubMed Central

Birkner, Matthias; Blath, Jochen; Eldon, Bjarki

2013-01-01

A large offspring-number diploid biparental multilocus population model of Moran type is our object of study. At each time step, a pair of diploid individuals drawn uniformly at random contributes offspring to the population. The number of offspring can be large relative to the total population size. Similar “heavily skewed” reproduction mechanisms have been recently considered by various authors (cf. e.g., Eldon and Wakeley 2006, 2008) and reviewed by Hedgecock and Pudovkin (2011). Each diploid parental individual contributes exactly one chromosome to each diploid offspring, and hence ancestral lineages can coalesce only when in distinct individuals. A separation-of-timescales phenomenon is thus observed. A result of Möhle (1998) is extended to obtain convergence of the ancestral process to an ancestral recombination graph necessarily admitting simultaneous multiple mergers of ancestral lineages. The usual ancestral recombination graph is obtained as a special case of our model when the parents contribute only one offspring to the population each time. Due to diploidy and large offspring numbers, novel effects appear. For example, the marginal genealogy at each locus admits simultaneous multiple mergers in up to four groups, and different loci remain substantially correlated even as the recombination rate grows large. Thus, genealogies for loci far apart on the same chromosome remain correlated. Correlation in coalescence times for two loci is derived and shown to be a function of the coalescence parameters of our model. Extending the observations by Eldon and Wakeley (2008), predictions of linkage disequilibrium are shown to be functions of the reproduction parameters of our model, in addition to the recombination rate. Correlations in ratios of coalescence times between loci can be high, even when the recombination rate is high and sample size is large, in large offspring-number populations, as suggested by simulations, hinting at how to distinguish between different population models. PMID:23150600

Research progress of plant population genomics based on high-throughput sequencing.

PubMed

Wang, Yun-sheng

2016-08-01

Population genomics, a new paradigm for population genetics, combine the concepts and techniques of genomics with the theoretical system of population genetics and improve our understanding of microevolution through identification of site-specific effect and genome-wide effects using genome-wide polymorphic sites genotypeing. With the appearance and improvement of the next generation high-throughput sequencing technology, the numbers of plant species with complete genome sequences increased rapidly and large scale resequencing has also been carried out in recent years. Parallel sequencing has also been done in some plant species without complete genome sequences. These studies have greatly promoted the development of population genomics and deepened our understanding of the genetic diversity, level of linking disequilibium, selection effect, demographical history and molecular mechanism of complex traits of relevant plant population at a genomic level. In this review, I briely introduced the concept and research methods of population genomics and summarized the research progress of plant population genomics based on high-throughput sequencing. I also discussed the prospect as well as existing problems of plant population genomics in order to provide references for related studies.

Understanding and estimating effective population size for practical application in marine species management.

PubMed

Hare, Matthew P; Nunney, Leonard; Schwartz, Michael K; Ruzzante, Daniel E; Burford, Martha; Waples, Robin S; Ruegg, Kristen; Palstra, Friso

2011-06-01

Effective population size (N(e)) determines the strength of genetic drift in a population and has long been recognized as an important parameter for evaluating conservation status and threats to genetic health of populations. Specifically, an estimate of N(e) is crucial to management because it integrates genetic effects with the life history of the species, allowing for predictions of a population's current and future viability. Nevertheless, compared with ecological and demographic parameters, N(e) has had limited influence on species management, beyond its application in very small populations. Recent developments have substantially improved N(e) estimation; however, some obstacles remain for the practical application of N(e) estimates. For example, the need to define the spatial and temporal scale of measurement makes the concept complex and sometimes difficult to interpret. We reviewed approaches to estimation of N(e) over both long-term and contemporary time frames, clarifying their interpretations with respect to local populations and the global metapopulation. We describe multiple experimental factors affecting robustness of contemporary N(e) estimates and suggest that different sampling designs can be combined to compare largely independent measures of N(e) for improved confidence in the result. Large populations with moderate gene flow pose the greatest challenges to robust estimation of contemporary N(e) and require careful consideration of sampling and analysis to minimize estimator bias. We emphasize the practical utility of estimating N(e) by highlighting its relevance to the adaptive potential of a population and describing applications in management of marine populations, where the focus is not always on critically endangered populations. Two cases discussed include the mechanisms generating N(e) estimates many orders of magnitude lower than census N in harvested marine fishes and the predicted reduction in N(e) from hatchery-based population supplementation. ©2011 Society for Conservation Biology.

Tagging methods for estimating population size and mortality rates of inland striped bass populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hightower, Joseph E.; Pollock, Kenneth H.

2013-01-01

Striped bass Morone saxatilis in inland reservoirs play an important role ecologically and in supporting recreational fishing. To manage these populations, biologists need information about abundance and mortality. Abundance estimates can be used to assess the effectiveness of stocking programs that maintain most reservoir striped bass populations. Mortality estimates can indicate the relative impact of fishing versus natural mortality and the need for harvest regulation. The purpose of this chapter is to evaluate tagging studies as a way of obtaining information about abundance and mortality. These approaches can be grouped into three broad categories: tag recapture, tag return, and telemetry. Tag-recapture methods are typically used to estimate population size and other demographic parameters but are often difficult to apply in large systems. A fishing tournament can be an effective way of generating tagging or recapture effort in large systems, compared to using research sampling only. Tag-return methods that rely on angler harvest and catch and release can be used to estimate fishing (F) and natural (M) mortality rates and are a practical approach in large reservoirs. The key to success in tag-return studies is to build in auxiliary studies to estimate short-term tagging mortality, short- and longterm tag loss, reporting rate, and mortality associated with catch and release. F and M can also be estimated using telemetry tags. Advantages of this approach are that angler nonreporting does not bias estimates and fish with transmitters provide useful ecological data. Cost can be a disadvantage of telemetry studies; thus, combining telemetry tags with conventional tag returns in an integrated analysis is often the optimal approach. In summary, tagging methods can be a powerful tool for assessing the effectiveness of inland striped bass stocking programs and the relative impact of fishing versus natural mortality

Whole-genome sequencing identifies EN1 as a determinant of bone density and fracture

PubMed Central

Zheng, Hou-Feng; Forgetta, Vincenzo; Hsu, Yi-Hsiang; Estrada, Karol; Rosello-Diez, Alberto; Leo, Paul J; Dahia, Chitra L; Park-Min, Kyung Hyun; Tobias, Jonathan H; Kooperberg, Charles; Kleinman, Aaron; Styrkarsdottir, Unnur; Liu, Ching-Ti; Uggla, Charlotta; Evans, Daniel S; Nielson, Carrie M; Walter, Klaudia; Pettersson-Kymmer, Ulrika; McCarthy, Shane; Eriksson, Joel; Kwan, Tony; Jhamai, Mila; Trajanoska, Katerina; Memari, Yasin; Min, Josine; Huang, Jie; Danecek, Petr; Wilmot, Beth; Li, Rui; Chou, Wen-Chi; Mokry, Lauren E; Moayyeri, Alireza; Claussnitzer, Melina; Cheng, Chia-Ho; Cheung, Warren; Medina-Gómez, Carolina; Ge, Bing; Chen, Shu-Huang; Choi, Kwangbom; Oei, Ling; Fraser, James; Kraaij, Robert; Hibbs, Matthew A; Gregson, Celia L; Paquette, Denis; Hofman, Albert; Wibom, Carl; Tranah, Gregory J; Marshall, Mhairi; Gardiner, Brooke B; Cremin, Katie; Auer, Paul; Hsu, Li; Ring, Sue; Tung, Joyce Y; Thorleifsson, Gudmar; Enneman, Anke W; van Schoor, Natasja M; de Groot, Lisette C.P.G.M.; van der Velde, Nathalie; Melin, Beatrice; Kemp, John P; Christiansen, Claus; Sayers, Adrian; Zhou, Yanhua; Calderari, Sophie; van Rooij, Jeroen; Carlson, Chris; Peters, Ulrike; Berlivet, Soizik; Dostie, Josée; Uitterlinden, Andre G; Williams, Stephen R.; Farber, Charles; Grinberg, Daniel; LaCroix, Andrea Z; Haessler, Jeff; Chasman, Daniel I; Giulianini, Franco; Rose, Lynda M; Ridker, Paul M; Eisman, John A; Nguyen, Tuan V; Center, Jacqueline R; Nogues, Xavier; Garcia-Giralt, Natalia; Launer, Lenore L; Gudnason, Vilmunder; Mellström, Dan; Vandenput, Liesbeth; Karlsson, Magnus K; Ljunggren, Östen; Svensson, Olle; Hallmans, Göran; Rousseau, François; Giroux, Sylvie; Bussière, Johanne; Arp, Pascal P; Koromani, Fjorda; Prince, Richard L; Lewis, Joshua R; Langdahl, Bente L; Hermann, A Pernille; Jensen, Jens-Erik B; Kaptoge, Stephen; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Reeve, Jonathan; Formosa, Melissa M; Xuereb-Anastasi, Angela; Åkesson, Kristina; McGuigan, Fiona E; Garg, Gaurav; Olmos, Jose M; Zarrabeitia, Maria T; Riancho, Jose A; Ralston, Stuart H; Alonso, Nerea; Jiang, Xi; Goltzman, David; Pastinen, Tomi; Grundberg, Elin; Gauguier, Dominique; Orwoll, Eric S; Karasik, David; Davey-Smith, George; Smith, Albert V; Siggeirsdottir, Kristin; Harris, Tamara B; Zillikens, M Carola; van Meurs, Joyce BJ; Thorsteinsdottir, Unnur; Maurano, Matthew T; Timpson, Nicholas J; Soranzo, Nicole; Durbin, Richard; Wilson, Scott G; Ntzani, Evangelia E; Brown, Matthew A; Stefansson, Kari; Hinds, David A; Spector, Tim; Cupples, L Adrienne; Ohlsson, Claes; Greenwood, Celia MT; Jackson, Rebecca D; Rowe, David W; Loomis, Cynthia A; Evans, David M; Ackert-Bicknell, Cheryl L; Joyner, Alexandra L; Duncan, Emma L; Kiel, Douglas P; Rivadeneira, Fernando; Richards, J Brent

2016-01-01

SUMMARY The extent to which low-frequency (minor allele frequency [MAF] between 1–5%) and rare (MAF ≤ 1%) variants contribute to complex traits and disease in the general population is largely unknown. Bone mineral density (BMD) is highly heritable, is a major predictor of osteoporotic fractures and has been previously associated with common genetic variants1–8, and rare, population-specific, coding variants9. Here we identify novel non-coding genetic variants with large effects on BMD (ntotal = 53,236) and fracture (ntotal = 508,253) in individuals of European ancestry from the general population. Associations for BMD were derived from whole-genome sequencing (n=2,882 from UK10K), whole-exome sequencing (n= 3,549), deep imputation of genotyped samples using a combined UK10K/1000Genomes reference panel (n=26,534), and de-novo replication genotyping (n= 20,271). We identified a low-frequency non-coding variant near a novel locus, EN1, with an effect size 4-fold larger than the mean of previously reported common variants for lumbar spine BMD8 (rs11692564[T], MAF = 1.7%, replication effect size = +0.20 standard deviations [SD], Pmeta = 2×10−14), which was also associated with a decreased risk of fracture (OR = 0.85; P = 2×10−11; ncases = 98,742 and ncontrols = 409,511). Using an En1Cre/flox mouse model, we observed that conditional loss of En1 results in low bone mass, likely as a consequence of high bone turn-over. We also identified a novel low-frequency non-coding variant with large effects on BMD near WNT16 (rs148771817[T], MAF = 1.1%, replication effect size = +0.39 SD, Pmeta = 1×10−11). In general, there was an excess of association signals arising from deleterious coding and conserved non-coding variants. These findings provide evidence that low-frequency non-coding variants have large effects on BMD and fracture, thereby providing rationale for whole-genome sequencing and improved imputation reference panels to study the genetic architecture of complex traits and disease in the general population. PMID:26367794

Migratory herds of wildebeests and zebras indirectly affect calf survival of giraffes.

PubMed

Lee, Derek E; Kissui, Bernard M; Kiwango, Yustina A; Bond, Monica L

2016-12-01

In long-distance migratory systems, local fluctuations in the predator-prey ratio can exhibit extreme variability within a single year depending upon the seasonal location of migratory species. Such systems offer an opportunity to empirically investigate cyclic population density effects on short-term food web interactions by taking advantage of the large seasonal shifts in migratory prey biomass.We utilized a large-mammal predator-prey savanna food web to evaluate support for hypotheses relating to the indirect effects of "apparent competition" and "apparent mutualism" from migratory ungulate herds on survival of resident megaherbivore calves, mediated by their shared predator. African lions ( Panthera leo ) are generalist predators whose primary, preferred prey are wildebeests ( Connochaetes taurinus ) and zebras ( Equus quagga ), while lion predation on secondary prey such as giraffes ( Giraffa camelopardalis ) may change according to the relative abundance of the primary prey species.We used demographic data from five subpopulations of giraffes in the Tarangire Ecosystem of Tanzania, East Africa, to test hypotheses relating to direct predation and indirect effects of large migratory herds on calf survival of a resident megaherbivore. We examined neonatal survival via apparent reproduction of 860 adult females, and calf survival of 449 giraffe calves, during three precipitation seasons over 3 years, seeking evidence of some effect on neonate and calf survival as a consequence of the movements of large herds of migratory ungulates.We found that local lion predation pressure (lion density divided by primary prey density) was significantly negatively correlated with giraffe neonatal and calf survival probabilities. This supports the apparent mutualism hypothesis that the presence of migratory ungulates reduces lion predation on giraffe calves.Natural predation had a significant effect on giraffe calf and neonate survival, and could significantly affect giraffe population dynamics. If wildebeest and zebra populations in this ecosystem continue to decline as a result of increasingly disrupted migrations and poaching, then giraffe calves will face increased predation pressure as the predator-prey ratio increases. Our results suggest that the widespread population declines observed in many migratory systems are likely to trigger demographic impacts in other species due to indirect effects like those shown here.

Generalizing Evidence From Randomized Clinical Trials to Target Populations

PubMed Central

Cole, Stephen R.; Stuart, Elizabeth A.

2010-01-01

Properly planned and conducted randomized clinical trials remain susceptible to a lack of external validity. The authors illustrate a model-based method to standardize observed trial results to a specified target population using a seminal human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) treatment trial, and they provide Monte Carlo simulation evidence supporting the method. The example trial enrolled 1,156 HIV-infected adult men and women in the United States in 1996, randomly assigned 577 to a highly active antiretroviral therapy and 579 to a largely ineffective combination therapy, and followed participants for 52 weeks. The target population was US people infected with HIV in 2006, as estimated by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Results from the trial apply, albeit muted by 12%, to the target population, under the assumption that the authors have measured and correctly modeled the determinants of selection that reflect heterogeneity in the treatment effect. In simulations with a heterogeneous treatment effect, a conventional intent-to-treat estimate was biased with poor confidence limit coverage, but the proposed estimate was largely unbiased with appropriate confidence limit coverage. The proposed method standardizes observed trial results to a specified target population and thereby provides information regarding the generalizability of trial results. PMID:20547574

Nonidentifiability of population size from capture-recapture data with heterogeneous detection probabilities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, W.A.

2003-01-01

Heterogeneity in detection probabilities has long been recognized as problematic in mark-recapture studies, and numerous models developed to accommodate its effects. Individual heterogeneity is especially problematic, in that reasonable alternative models may predict essentially identical observations from populations of substantially different sizes. Thus even with very large samples, the analyst will not be able to distinguish among reasonable models of heterogeneity, even though these yield quite distinct inferences about population size. The problem is illustrated with models for closed and open populations.

Spatial and Temporal Coordination of Bone Marrow-Derived Cell Activity During Arteriogenesis: Regulation of the Endogenous Response and Therapeutic Implications

PubMed Central

Meisner, Joshua K.; Price, Richard J.

2010-01-01

Arterial occlusive disease (AOD) is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality through the developed world, which creates a significant need for effective therapies to halt disease progression. Despite success of animal and small-scale human therapeutic arteriogenesis studies, this promising concept for treating AOD has yielded largely disappointing results in large-scale clinical trials. One reason for this lack of successful translation is that endogenous arteriogenesis is highly dependent on a poorly understood sequence of events and interactions between bone marrow derived cells (BMCs) and vascular cells, which makes designing effective therapies difficult. We contend that the process follows a complex, ordered sequence of events with multiple, specific BMC populations recruited at specific times and locations. Here we present the evidence suggesting roles for multiple BMC populations from neutrophils and mast cells to progenitor cells and propose how and where these cell populations fit within the sequence of events during arteriogenesis. Disruptions in these various BMC populations can impair the arteriogenesis process in patterns that characterize specific patient populations. We propose that an improved understanding of how arteriogenesis functions as a system can reveal individual BMC populations and functions that can be targeted for overcoming particular impairments in collateral vessel development. PMID:21044213

Human impacts on large benthic foraminifers near a densely populated area of Majuro Atoll, Marshall Islands.

PubMed

Osawa, Yoko; Fujita, Kazuhiko; Umezawa, Yu; Kayanne, Hajime; Ide, Yoichi; Nagaoka, Tatsutoshi; Miyajima, Toshihiro; Yamano, Hiroya

2010-08-01

Human impacts on sand-producing, large benthic foraminifers were investigated on ocean reef flats at the northeast Majuro Atoll, Marshall Islands, along a human population gradient. The densities of dominant foraminifers Calcarina and Amphistegina declined with distance from densely populated islands. Macrophyte composition on ocean reef flats differed between locations near sparsely or densely populated islands. Nutrient concentrations in reef-flat seawater and groundwater were high near or on densely populated islands. delta(15)N values in macroalgal tissues indicated that macroalgae in nearshore lagoons assimilate wastewater-derived nitrogen, whereas those on nearshore ocean reef flats assimilate nitrogen from other sources. These results suggest that increases in the human population result in high nutrient loading in groundwater and possibly into nearshore waters. High nutrient inputs into ambient seawater may have both direct and indirect negative effects on sand-producing foraminifers through habitat changes and/or the collapse of algal symbiosis. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A size-frequency study of large Martian craters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Woronow, A.

1975-01-01

The log normal frequency distribution law was used to analyze the crater population on the surface of Mars. Resulting data show possible evidence for the size frequency evolution of crater producing bodies. Some regions on Mars display excessive depletion of either large or small craters; the most likely causes of the depletion are considered. Apparently, eolian sedimentation has markedly altered the population of the small craters south of -30 deg latitude. The general effects of crater obliteration in the Southern Hemisphere appear to be confined to diameters of less than 20 km. A strong depletion of large craters in a large region just south of Deuteronilus Mensae, and in a small region centered at 35 deg latitude and 10 deg west longitude, may indicate locations of subsurface ice.

Life-history diversity and its importance to population stability and persistence of a migratory fish: steelhead in two large North American watersheds.

PubMed

Moore, Jonathan W; Yeakel, Justin D; Peard, Dean; Lough, Jeff; Beere, Mark

2014-09-01

Life-history strategies can buffer individuals and populations from environmental variability. For instance, it is possible that asynchronous dynamics among different life histories can stabilize populations through portfolio effects. Here, we examine life-history diversity and its importance to stability for an iconic migratory fish species. In particular, we examined steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss), an anadromous and iteroparous salmonid, in two large, relatively pristine, watersheds, the Skeena and Nass, in north-western British Columbia, Canada. We synthesized life-history information derived from scales collected from adult steelhead (N = 7227) in these watersheds across a decade. These migratory fishes expressed 36 different manifestations of the anadromous life-history strategy, with 16 different combinations of freshwater and marine ages, 7·6% of fish performing multiple spawning migrations, and up to a maximum of four spawning migrations per lifetime. Furthermore, in the Nass watershed, various life histories were differently prevalent through time - three different life histories were the most prevalent in a given year, and no life history ever represented more than 45% of the population. These asynchronous dynamics among life histories decreased the variability of numerical abundance and biomass of the aggregated population so that it was > 20% more stable than the stability of the weighted average of specific life histories: evidence of a substantial portfolio effect. Year of ocean entry was a key driver of dynamics; the median correlation coefficient of abundance of life histories that entered the ocean the same year was 2·5 times higher than the median pairwise coefficient of life histories that entered the ocean at different times. Simulations illustrated how different elements of life-history diversity contribute to stability and persistence of populations. This study provides evidence that life-history diversity can dampen fluctuations in population abundances and biomass via portfolio effects. Conserving genetic integrity and habitat diversity in these and other large watersheds can enable a diversity of life histories that increases population and biomass stability in the face of environmental variability. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.

Alleles versus genotypes: Genetic interactions and the dynamics of selection in sexual populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neher, Richard

2010-03-01

Physical interactions between amino-acids are essential for protein structure and activity, while protein-protein interactions and regulatory interactions are central to cellular function. As a consequence of these interactions, the combined effect of two mutations can differ from the sum of the individual effects of the mutations. This phenomenon of genetic interaction is known as epistasis. However, the importance of epistasis and its effects on evolutionary dynamics are poorly understood, especially in sexual populations where recombination breaks up existing combinations of alleles to produce new ones. Here, we present a computational model of selection dynamics involving many epistatic loci in a recombining population. We demonstrate that a large number of polymorphic interacting loci can, despite frequent recombination, exhibit cooperative behavior that locks alleles into favorable genotypes leading to a population consisting of a set of competing clones. As the recombination rate exceeds a certain critical value this ``genotype selection'' phase disappears in an abrupt transition giving way to ``allele selection'' - the phase where different loci are only weakly correlated as expected in sexually reproducing populations. Clustering of interacting sets of genes on a chromosome leads to the emergence of an intermediate regime, where localized blocks of cooperating alleles lock into genetic modules. Large populations attain highest fitness at a recombination rate just below critical, suggesting that natural selection might tune recombination rates to balance the beneficial aspect of exploration of genotype space with the breaking up of synergistic allele combinations.

Homoplasy and mutation model at microsatellite loci and their consequences for population genetics analysis.

PubMed

Estoup, Arnaud; Jarne, Philippe; Cornuet, Jean-Marie

2002-09-01

Homoplasy has recently attracted the attention of population geneticists, as a consequence of the popularity of highly variable stepwise mutating markers such as microsatellites. Microsatellite alleles generally refer to DNA fragments of different size (electromorphs). Electromorphs are identical in state (i.e. have identical size), but are not necessarily identical by descent due to convergent mutation(s). Homoplasy occurring at microsatellites is thus referred to as size homoplasy. Using new analytical developments and computer simulations, we first evaluate the effect of the mutation rate, the mutation model, the effective population size and the time of divergence between populations on size homoplasy at the within and between population levels. We then review the few experimental studies that used various molecular techniques to detect size homoplasious events at some microsatellite loci. The relationship between this molecularly accessible size homoplasy size and the actual amount of size homoplasy is not trivial, the former being considerably influenced by the molecular structure of microsatellite core sequences. In a third section, we show that homoplasy at microsatellite electromorphs does not represent a significant problem for many types of population genetics analyses realized by molecular ecologists, the large amount of variability at microsatellite loci often compensating for their homoplasious evolution. The situations where size homoplasy may be more problematic involve high mutation rates and large population sizes together with strong allele size constraints.

Effect of high flow events on spatiotemporal variation of E. coli concentrations in creek sediments

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Sediments can harbor large populations of Escherichia coli often times in greater amounts than the overlying water column. Resuspension of sediments during storm events causes the release of E. coli which drastically changes microbial water quality metrics. It is not well known how populations of E....

When evolution is the solution to pollution: Key principles, and lessons from rapid repeated adaptation of killifish (Fundulus heteroclitus) populations

EPA Science Inventory

For most species, evolutionary adaptation is not expected to be sufficiently rapid to buffer the effects of human-mediated environmental changes. Yet large persistent populations of small bodied fish residing in some of the most contaminated estuaries of the US have provided some...

Signatures of large-scale and local climates on the demography of white-tailed ptarmigan in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, USA.

PubMed

Wang, Guiming; Hobbs, N Thompson; Galbraith, Hector; Giesen, Kenneth M

2002-09-01

Global climate change may impact wildlife populations by affecting local weather patterns, which, in turn, can impact a variety of ecological processes. However, it is not clear that local variations in ecological processes can be explained by large-scale patterns of climate. The North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) is a large-scale climate phenomenon that has been shown to influence the population dynamics of some animals. Although effects of the NAO on vertebrate population dynamics have been studied, it remains uncertain whether it broadly predicts the impact of weather on species. We examined the ability of local weather data and the NAO to explain the annual variation in population dynamics of white-tailed ptarmigan ( Lagopus leucurus) in Rocky Mountain National Park, USA. We performed canonical correlation analysis on the demographic subspace of ptarmigan and local-climate subspace defined by the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) using data from 1975 to 1999. We found that two subspaces were significantly correlated on the first canonical variable. The Pearson correlation coefficient of the first EOF values of the demographic and local-climate subspaces was significant. The population density and the first EOF of local-climate subspace influenced the ptarmigan population with 1-year lags in the Gompertz model. However, the NAO index was neither related to the first two EOF of local-climate subspace nor to the first EOF of the demographic subspace of ptarmigan. Moreover, the NAO index was not a significant term in the Gompertz model for the ptarmigan population. Therefore, local climate had stronger signature on the demography of ptarmigan than did a large-scale index, i.e., the NAO index. We conclude that local responses of wildlife populations to changing climate may not be adequately explained by models that project large-scale climatic patterns.

Genetic variation assessed with microsatellites in mass selection lines of the Pacific oyster ( Crassostrea gigas) in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xubo; Li, Qi; Yu, Hong; Kong, Lingfeng

2016-12-01

Four successive mass selection lines of the Pacific oyster, Crassostrea gigas, selected for faster growth in breeding programs in China were examined at ten polymorphic microsatellite loci to assess the level of allelic diversity and estimate the effective population size. These data were compared with those of their base population. The results showed that the genetic variation of the four generations were maintained at high levels with an average allelic richness of 18.8-20.6, and a mean expected heterozygosity of 0.902-0.921. They were not reduced compared with those of their base population. Estimated effective population sizes based on temporal variances in microsatellite frequencies were smaller to that of sex ratio-corrected broodstock count estimates. Using a relatively large number of broodstock and keeping an equal sex ratio in the broodstock each generation may have contributed to retaining the original genetic diversity and maintaining relatively large effective population size. The results obtained in this study showed that the genetic variation was not affected greatly by mass selection progress and high genetic variation still existed in the mass selection lines, suggesting that there is still potential for increasing the gains in future generations of C. gigas. The present study provided important information for future genetic improvement by selective breeding, and for the design of suitable management guidelines for genetic breeding of C. gigas.

Portfolio effects, climate change, and the persistence of small populations: analyses on the rare plant Saussurea weberi.

PubMed

Abbott, Ronald E; Doak, Daniel F; Peterson, Megan L

2017-04-01

The mechanisms that stabilize small populations in the face of environmental variation are crucial to their long-term persistence. Building from diversity-stability concepts in community ecology, within-population diversity is gaining attention as an important component of population stability. Genetic and microhabitat variation within populations can generate diverse responses to common environmental fluctuations, dampening temporal variability across the population as a whole through portfolio effects. Yet, the potential for portfolio effects to operate at small scales within populations or to change with systematic environmental shifts, such as climate change, remain largely unexplored. We tracked the abundance of a rare alpine perennial plant, Saussurea weberi, in 49 1-m 2 plots within a single population over 20 yr. We estimated among-plot correlations in log annual growth rate to test for population-level synchrony and quantify portfolio effects across the 20-yr study period and also in 5-yr subsets based on June temperature quartiles. Asynchrony among plots, due to different plot-level responses to June temperature, reduced overall fluctuations in abundance and the probability of decline in population models, even when accounting for the effects of density dependence on dynamics. However, plots became more synchronous and portfolio effects decreased during the warmest years of the study, suggesting that future climate warming may erode stabilizing mechanisms in populations of this rare plant. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Genetic rescue of an insular population of large mammals

PubMed Central

Hogg, John T; Forbes, Stephen H; Steele, Brian M; Luikart, Gordon

2006-01-01

Natural populations worldwide are increasingly fragmented by habitat loss. Isolation at small population size is thought to reduce individual and population fitness via inbreeding depression. However, little is known about the time-scale over which adverse genetic effects may develop in natural populations or the number and types of traits likely to be affected. The benefits of restoring gene flow to isolates are therefore also largely unknown. In contrast, the potential costs of migration (e.g. disease spread) are readily apparent. Management for ecological connectivity has therefore been controversial and sometimes avoided. Using pedigree and life-history data collected during 25 years of study, we evaluated genetic decline and rescue in a population of bighorn sheep founded by 12 individuals in 1922 and isolated at an average size of 42 animals for 10–12 generations. Immigration was restored experimentally, beginning in 1985. We detected marked improvements in reproduction, survival and five fitness-related traits among descendants of the 15 recent migrants. Trait values were increased by 23–257% in maximally outbred individuals. This is the first demonstration, to our knowledge, of increased male and female fitness attributable to outbreeding realized in a fully competitive natural setting. Our findings suggest that genetic principles deserve broader recognition as practical management tools with near-term consequences for large-mammal conservation. PMID:16777743

Naturalization of plant populations: the role of cultivation and population size and density.

PubMed

Minton, Mark S; Mack, Richard N

2010-10-01

Field experimentation is required to assess the effects of environmental stochasticity on small immigrant plant populations-a widely understood but largely unexplored aspect of predicting any species' likelihood of naturalization and potential invasion. Cultivation can mitigate this stochasticity, although the outcome for a population under cultivation nevertheless varies enormously from extinction to persistence. Using factorial experiments, we investigated the effects of population size, density, and cultivation (irrigation) on the fate of founder populations for four alien species with different life history characteristics (Echinochloa frumentacea, Fagopyrum esculentum, Helianthus annuus, and Trifolium incarnatum) in eastern Washington, USA. The fate of founder populations was highly variable within and among the 3 years of experimentation and illustrates the often precarious environment encountered by plant immigrants. Larger founder populations produced more seeds (P < 0.001); the role of founder population size, however, differed among years. Irrigation resulted in higher percent survival (P < 0.001) and correspondingly larger net reproductive rate (R(0); P < 0.001). But the minimum level of irrigation for establishment, R(0) > 1, differed among years and species. Sowing density did not affect the likelihood of establishment for any species. Our results underscore the importance of environmental stochasticity in determining the fate of founder populations and the potential of cultivation and large population size in countering the long odds against naturalization. Any implementation of often proposed post-immigration field trials to assess the risk of an alien species becoming naturalized, a requisite step toward invasion, will need to assess different sizes of founder populations and the extent and character of cultivation (intentional or unintentional) that the immigrants might receive.

How Much Can Remotely-Sensed Natural Resource Inventories Benefit from Finer Spatial Resolutions?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hou, Z.; Xu, Q.; McRoberts, R. E.; Ståhl, G.; Greenberg, J. A.

2017-12-01

For remote sensing facilitated natural resource inventories, the effects of spatial resolution in the form of pixel size and the effects of subpixel information on estimates of population parameters were evaluated by comparing results obtained using Landsat 8 and RapidEye auxiliary imagery. The study area was in Burkina Faso, and the variable of interest was the stem volume (m3/ha) convertible to the woodland aboveground biomass. A sample consisting of 160 field plots was selected and measured from the population following a two-stage sampling design. Models were fit using weighted least squares; the population mean, mu, and the variance of the estimator of the population mean, Var(mu.hat), were estimated in two inferential frameworks, model-based and model-assisted, and compared; for each framework, Var(mu.hat) was estimated both analytically and empirically. Empirical variances were estimated with bootstrapping that for resampling takes clustering effects into account. The primary results were twofold. First, for the effects of spatial resolution and subpixel information, four conclusions are relevant: (1) finer spatial resolution imagery indeed contributes to greater precision for estimators of population parameter, but this increase is slight at a maximum rate of 20% considering that RapidEye data are 36 times finer resolution than Landsat 8 data; (2) subpixel information on texture is marginally beneficial when it comes to making inference for population of large areas; (3) cost-effectiveness is more favorable for the free of charge Landsat 8 imagery than RapidEye imagery; and (4) for a given plot size, candidate remote sensing auxiliary datasets are more cost-effective when their spatial resolutions are similar to the plot size than with much finer alternatives. Second, for the comparison between estimators, three conclusions are relevant: (1) model-based variance estimates are consistent with each other and about half as large as stabilized model-assisted estimates, suggesting superior effectiveness of model-based inference to model-assisted inference; (2) bootstrapping is an effective alternative to analytical variance estimators; and (3) prediction accuracy expressed by RMSE is useful for screening candidate models to be used for population inferences.

Tracking butterfly movements with harmonic radar reveals an effect of population age on movement distance

PubMed Central

Ovaskainen, Otso; Smith, Alan D.; Osborne, Juliet L.; Reynolds, Don R.; Carreck, Norman L.; Martin, Andrew P.; Niitepõld, Kristjan; Hanski, Ilkka

2008-01-01

We used harmonic radar to track freely flying Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) females within an area of 30 ha. Butterflies originated from large and continuous populations in China and Estonia, and from newly established or old (> 5 years) small local populations in a highly fragmented landscape in Finland. Caterpillars were raised under common garden conditions and unmated females were tested soon after eclosion. The reconstructed flight paths for 66 individuals comprised a total distance of 51 km with high spatial resolution. Butterflies originating from large continuous populations and from old local populations in Finland exhibited similar movement behaviors, whereas butterflies originating from newly established local populations in the fragmented landscape in Finland moved significantly more than the others. There was no difference in the lengths of individual flight bouts, but the new-population females flew more frequently, resulting in longer daily movement tracks. The flight activity of all individuals was affected by environmental conditions, peaking at 19–23°C (depending on population type), in the early afternoon, and during calm weather. Butterflies from all population types showed a strong tendency to follow habitat edges between the open study area and the neighboring woodlands. PMID:19060191

Wind Farm Facilities in Germany Kill Noctule Bats from Near and Far

PubMed Central

Lehnert, Linn S.; Kramer-Schadt, Stephanie; Schönborn, Sophia; Lindecke, Oliver; Niermann, Ivo; Voigt, Christian C.

2014-01-01

Over recent years, it became widely accepted that alternative, renewable energy may come at some risk for wildlife, for example, when wind turbines cause large numbers of bat fatalities. To better assess likely populations effects of wind turbine related wildlife fatalities, we studied the geographical origin of the most common bat species found dead below German wind turbines, the noctule bat (Nyctalus noctula). We measured stable isotope ratios of non-exchangeable hydrogen in fur keratin to separate migrants from local individuals, used a linear mixed-effects model to identify temporal, spatial and biological factors explaining the variance in measured stable isotope ratios and determined the geographical breeding provenance of killed migrants using isoscape origin models. We found that 72% of noctule bat casualties (n = 136) were of local origin, while 28% were long-distance migrants. These findings highlight that bat fatalities at German wind turbines may affect both local and distant populations. Our results indicated a sex and age-specific vulnerability of bats towards lethal accidents at turbines, i.e. a relatively high proportion of killed females were recorded among migratory individuals, whereas more juveniles than adults were recorded among killed bats of local origin. Migratory noctule bats were found to originate from distant populations in the Northeastern parts of Europe. The large catchment areas of German wind turbines and high vulnerability of female and juvenile noctule bats call for immediate action to reduce the negative cross-boundary effects of bat fatalities at wind turbines on local and distant populations. Further, our study highlights the importance of implementing effective mitigation measures and developing species and scale-specific conservation approaches on both national and international levels to protect source populations of bats. The efficacy of local compensatory measures appears doubtful, at least for migrant noctule bats, considering the large geographical catchment areas of German wind turbines for this species. PMID:25118805

Wind farm facilities in Germany kill noctule bats from near and far.

PubMed

Lehnert, Linn S; Kramer-Schadt, Stephanie; Schönborn, Sophia; Lindecke, Oliver; Niermann, Ivo; Voigt, Christian C

2014-01-01

Over recent years, it became widely accepted that alternative, renewable energy may come at some risk for wildlife, for example, when wind turbines cause large numbers of bat fatalities. To better assess likely populations effects of wind turbine related wildlife fatalities, we studied the geographical origin of the most common bat species found dead below German wind turbines, the noctule bat (Nyctalus noctula). We measured stable isotope ratios of non-exchangeable hydrogen in fur keratin to separate migrants from local individuals, used a linear mixed-effects model to identify temporal, spatial and biological factors explaining the variance in measured stable isotope ratios and determined the geographical breeding provenance of killed migrants using isoscape origin models. We found that 72% of noctule bat casualties (n = 136) were of local origin, while 28% were long-distance migrants. These findings highlight that bat fatalities at German wind turbines may affect both local and distant populations. Our results indicated a sex and age-specific vulnerability of bats towards lethal accidents at turbines, i.e. a relatively high proportion of killed females were recorded among migratory individuals, whereas more juveniles than adults were recorded among killed bats of local origin. Migratory noctule bats were found to originate from distant populations in the Northeastern parts of Europe. The large catchment areas of German wind turbines and high vulnerability of female and juvenile noctule bats call for immediate action to reduce the negative cross-boundary effects of bat fatalities at wind turbines on local and distant populations. Further, our study highlights the importance of implementing effective mitigation measures and developing species and scale-specific conservation approaches on both national and international levels to protect source populations of bats. The efficacy of local compensatory measures appears doubtful, at least for migrant noctule bats, considering the large geographical catchment areas of German wind turbines for this species.

Inferring the Mode of Selection from the Transient Response to Demographic Perturbations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balick, Daniel; Do, Ron; Reich, David; Sunyaev, Shamil

2014-03-01

Despite substantial recent progress in theoretical population genetics, most models work under the assumption of a constant population size. Deviations from fixed population sizes are ubiquitous in natural populations, many of which experience population bottlenecks and re-expansions. The non-equilibrium dynamics introduced by a large perturbation in population size are generally viewed as a confounding factor. In the present work, we take advantage of the transient response to a population bottleneck to infer features of the mode of selection and the distribution of selective effects. We develop an analytic framework and a corresponding statistical test that qualitatively differentiates between alleles under additive and those under recessive or more general epistatic selection. This statistic can be used to bound the joint distribution of selective effects and dominance effects in any diploid sexual organism. We apply this technique to human population genetic data, and severely restrict the space of allowed selective coefficients in humans. Additionally, one can test a set of functionally or medically relevant alleles for the primary mode of selection, or determine the local regional variation in dominance coefficients along the genome.

Relative availability of natural prey versus livestock predicts landscape suitability for cheetahs Acinonyx jubatus in Botswana

PubMed Central

Winterbach, Christiaan W.; Boast, Lorraine K.; Klein, Rebecca; Somers, Michael J.

2015-01-01

Prey availability and human-carnivore conflict are strong determinants that govern the spatial distribution and abundance of large carnivore species and determine the suitability of areas for their conservation. For wide-ranging large carnivores such as cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus), additional conservation areas beyond protected area boundaries are crucial to effectively conserve them both inside and outside protected areas. Although cheetahs prefer preying on wild prey, they also cause conflict with people by predating on especially small livestock. We investigated whether the distribution of cheetahs’ preferred prey and small livestock biomass could be used to explore the potential suitability of agricultural areas in Botswana for the long-term persistence of its cheetah population. We found it gave a good point of departure for identifying priority areas for land management, the threat to connectivity between cheetah populations, and areas where the reduction and mitigation of human-cheetah conflict is critical. Our analysis showed the existence of a wide prey base for cheetahs across large parts of Botswana’s agricultural areas, which provide additional large areas with high conservation potential. Twenty percent of wild prey biomass appears to be the critical point to distinguish between high and low probable levels of human-cheetah conflict. We identified focal areas in the agricultural zones where restoring wild prey numbers in concurrence with effective human-cheetah conflict mitigation efforts are the most immediate conservation strategies needed to maintain Botswana’s still large and contiguous cheetah population. PMID:26213646

Relative availability of natural prey versus livestock predicts landscape suitability for cheetahs Acinonyx jubatus in Botswana.

PubMed

Winterbach, Hanlie E K; Winterbach, Christiaan W; Boast, Lorraine K; Klein, Rebecca; Somers, Michael J

2015-01-01

Prey availability and human-carnivore conflict are strong determinants that govern the spatial distribution and abundance of large carnivore species and determine the suitability of areas for their conservation. For wide-ranging large carnivores such as cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus), additional conservation areas beyond protected area boundaries are crucial to effectively conserve them both inside and outside protected areas. Although cheetahs prefer preying on wild prey, they also cause conflict with people by predating on especially small livestock. We investigated whether the distribution of cheetahs' preferred prey and small livestock biomass could be used to explore the potential suitability of agricultural areas in Botswana for the long-term persistence of its cheetah population. We found it gave a good point of departure for identifying priority areas for land management, the threat to connectivity between cheetah populations, and areas where the reduction and mitigation of human-cheetah conflict is critical. Our analysis showed the existence of a wide prey base for cheetahs across large parts of Botswana's agricultural areas, which provide additional large areas with high conservation potential. Twenty percent of wild prey biomass appears to be the critical point to distinguish between high and low probable levels of human-cheetah conflict. We identified focal areas in the agricultural zones where restoring wild prey numbers in concurrence with effective human-cheetah conflict mitigation efforts are the most immediate conservation strategies needed to maintain Botswana's still large and contiguous cheetah population.

Using Satellite Imagery to Assess Large-Scale Habitat Characteristics of Adirondack Park, New York, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McClain, Bobbi J.; Porter, William F.

2000-11-01

Satellite imagery is a useful tool for large-scale habitat analysis; however, its limitations need to be tested. We tested these limitations by varying the methods of a habitat evaluation for white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus) in the Adirondack Park, New York, USA, utilizing harvest data to create and validate the assessment models. We used two classified images, one with a large minimum mapping unit but high accuracy and one with no minimum mapping unit but slightly lower accuracy, to test the sensitivity of the evaluation to these differences. We tested the utility of two methods of assessment, habitat suitability index modeling, and pattern recognition modeling. We varied the scale at which the models were applied by using five separate sizes of analysis windows. Results showed that the presence of a large minimum mapping unit eliminates important details of the habitat. Window size is relatively unimportant if the data are averaged to a large resolution (i.e., township), but if the data are used at the smaller resolution, then the window size is an important consideration. In the Adirondacks, the proportion of hardwood and softwood in an area is most important to the spatial dynamics of deer populations. The low occurrence of open area in all parts of the park either limits the effect of this cover type on the population or limits our ability to detect the effect. The arrangement and interspersion of cover types were not significant to deer populations.

Large effects of consumer offense on ecosystem structure and function.

PubMed

Chislock, Michael F; Sarnelle, Orlando; Olsen, Brianna K; Doster, Enrique; Wilson, Alan E

2013-11-01

Study of the role of within-species adaptation in ecological dynamics has focused largely on prey adaptations that reduce consumption risk (prey defense). Few, if any, studies have examined how consumer adaptations to overcome prey defenses (consumer offense) affect ecosystem structure and function. We manipulated two sets of genotypes of a planktonic herbivore (Daphnia pulicaria) in a highly productive ecosystem with abundant toxic prey (cyanobacteria). The two sets of consumer genotypes varied widely in their tolerance of toxic cyanobacteria in the diet (i.e., sensitive vs. tolerant). We found a large effect of tolerant D. pulicaria on phytoplankton biomass and gross primary productivity but no effect of sensitive genotypes, this result stemming from genotype-specific differences in population growth in the presence of toxic prey. The former effect was as large as effects seen in previous Daphnia manipulations at similar productivity levels. Thus, we demonstrated that the effect of consumer genotypes with contrasting offensive adaptations was as large as the effect of consumer presence/absence.

Family size and effective population size in a hatchery stock of coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Simon, R.C.; McIntyre, J.D.; Hemmingsen, A.R.

1986-01-01

Means and variances of family size measured in five year-classes of wire-tagged coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) were linearly related. Population effective size was calculated by using estimated means and variances of family size in a 25-yr data set. Although numbers of age 3 adults returning to the hatchery appeared to be large enough to avoid inbreeding problems (the 25-yr mean exceeded 4500), the numbers actually contributing to the hatchery production may be too low. Several strategies are proposed to correct the problem perceived. Argument is given to support the contention that the problem of effective size is fairly general and is not confined to the present study population.

Homogenous Population Genetic Structure of the Non-Native Raccoon Dog (Nyctereutes procyonoides) in Europe as a Result of Rapid Population Expansion

PubMed Central

Drygala, Frank; Korablev, Nikolay; Ansorge, Hermann; Fickel, Joerns; Isomursu, Marja; Elmeros, Morten; Kowalczyk, Rafał; Baltrunaite, Laima; Balciauskas, Linas; Saarma, Urmas; Schulze, Christoph; Borkenhagen, Peter; Frantz, Alain C.

2016-01-01

The extent of gene flow during the range expansion of non-native species influences the amount of genetic diversity retained in expanding populations. Here, we analyse the population genetic structure of the raccoon dog (Nyctereutes procyonoides) in north-eastern and central Europe. This invasive species is of management concern because it is highly susceptible to fox rabies and an important secondary host of the virus. We hypothesized that the large number of introduced animals and the species’ dispersal capabilities led to high population connectivity and maintenance of genetic diversity throughout the invaded range. We genotyped 332 tissue samples from seven European countries using 16 microsatellite loci. Different algorithms identified three genetic clusters corresponding to Finland, Denmark and a large ‘central’ population that reached from introduction areas in western Russia to northern Germany. Cluster assignments provided evidence of long-distance dispersal. The results of an Approximate Bayesian Computation analysis supported a scenario of equal effective population sizes among different pre-defined populations in the large central cluster. Our results are in line with strong gene flow and secondary admixture between neighbouring demes leading to reduced genetic structuring, probably a result of its fairly rapid population expansion after introduction. The results presented here are remarkable in the sense that we identified a homogenous genetic cluster inhabiting an area stretching over more than 1500km. They are also relevant for disease management, as in the event of a significant rabies outbreak, there is a great risk of a rapid virus spread among raccoon dog populations. PMID:27064784

Optimal city size and population density for the 21st century.

PubMed

Speare A; White, M J

1990-10-01

The thesis that large scale urban areas result in greater efficiency, reduced costs, and a better quality of life is reexamined. The environmental and social costs are measured for different scales of settlement. The desirability and perceived problems of a particular place are examined in relation to size of place. The consequences of population decline are considered. New York city is described as providing both opportunities in employment, shopping, and cultural activities as well as a high cost of living, crime, and pollution. The historical development of large cities in the US is described. Immigration has contributed to a greater concentration of population than would have otherwise have occurred. The spatial proximity of goods and services argument (agglomeration economies) has changed with advancements in technology such as roads, trucking, and electronic communication. There is no optimal city size. The overall effect of agglomeration can be assessed by determining whether the markets for goods and labor are adequate to maximize well-being and balance the negative and positive aspects of urbanization. The environmental costs of cities increase with size when air quality, water quality, sewage treatment, and hazardous waste disposal is considered. Smaller scale and lower density cities have the advantages of a lower concentration of pollutants. Also, mobilization for program support is easier with homogenous population. Lower population growth in large cities would contribute to a higher quality of life, since large metropolitan areas have a concentration of immigrants, younger age distributions, and minority groups with higher than average birth rates. The negative consequences of decline can be avoided if reduction of population in large cities takes place gradually. For example, poorer quality housing can be removed for open space. Cities should, however, still attract all classes of people with opportunities equally available.

Why are some animal populations unaffected or positively affected by roads?

PubMed

Rytwinski, Trina; Fahrig, Lenore

2013-11-01

In reviews on effects of roads on animal population abundance we found that most effects are negative; however, there are also many neutral and positive responses [Fahrig and Rytwinski (Ecol Soc 14:21, 2009; Rytwinski and Fahrig (Biol Conserv 147:87-98, 2012)]. Here we use an individual-based simulation model to: (1) confirm predictions from the existing literature of the combinations of species traits and behavioural responses to roads that lead to negative effects of roads on animal population abundance, and (2) improve prediction of the combinations of species traits and behavioural responses to roads that lead to neutral and positive effects of roads on animal population abundance. Simulations represented a typical situation in which road mitigation is contemplated, i.e. rural landscapes containing a relatively low density (up to 1.86 km/km(2)) of high-traffic roads, with continuous habitat between the roads. In these landscapes, the simulations predict that populations of species with small territories and movement ranges, and high reproductive rates, i.e. many small mammals and birds, should not be reduced by roads. Contrary to previous suggestions, the results also predict that populations of species that obtain a resource from roads (e.g. vultures) do not increase with increasing road density. In addition, our simulations support the predation release hypothesis for positive road effects on prey (both small- and large-bodied prey), whereby abundance of a prey species increased with increasing road density due to reduced predation by generalist road-affected predators. The simulations also predict an optimal road density for the large-bodied prey species if it avoids roads or traffic emissions. Overall, the simulation results suggest that in rural landscapes containing high-traffic roads, there are many species for which road mitigation may not be necessary; mitigation efforts should be tailored to the species that show negative population responses to roads.

Corridors affect plants, animals, and their interactions in fragmented landscapes

PubMed Central

Tewksbury, Joshua J.; Levey, Douglas J.; Haddad, Nick M.; Sargent, Sarah; Orrock, John L.; Weldon, Aimee; Danielson, Brent J.; Brinkerhoff, Jory; Damschen, Ellen I.; Townsend, Patricia

2002-01-01

Among the most popular strategies for maintaining populations of both plants and animals in fragmented landscapes is to connect isolated patches with thin strips of habitat, called corridors. Corridors are thought to increase the exchange of individuals between habitat patches, promoting genetic exchange and reducing population fluctuations. Empirical studies addressing the effects of corridors have either been small in scale or have ignored confounding effects of increased habitat area created by the presence of a corridor. These methodological difficulties, coupled with a paucity of studies examining the effects of corridors on plants and plant–animal interactions, have sparked debate over the purported value of corridors in conservation planning. We report results of a large-scale experiment that directly address this debate. In eight large-scale experimental landscapes that control for patch area and test alternative mechanisms of corridor function, we demonstrate that corridors not only increase the exchange of animals between patches, but also facilitate two key plant–animal interactions: pollination and seed dispersal. Our results show that the beneficial effects of corridors extend beyond the area they add, and suggest that increased plant and animal movement through corridors will have positive impacts on plant populations and community interactions in fragmented landscapes. PMID:12239344

Spatial and temporal variation in population genetic structure of wild Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) across Africa

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Reconstructing the evolutionary history of a species is challenging. It often depends not only on the past biogeographic and climatic events but also the contemporary and ecological factors, such as current connectivity and habitat heterogeneity. In fact, these factors might interact with each other and shape the current species distribution. However, to what extent the current population genetic structure reflects the past and the contemporary factors is largely unknown. Here we investigated spatio-temporal genetic structures of Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) populations, across their natural distribution in Africa. While its large biogeographic distribution can cause genetic differentiation at the paleo-biogeographic scales, its restricted dispersal capacity might induce a strong genetic structure at micro-geographic scales. Results Using nine microsatellite loci and 350 samples from ten natural populations, we found the highest genetic differentiation among the three ichthyofaunal provinces and regions (Ethiopian, Nilotic and Sudano-Sahelian) (RST = 0.38 - 0.69). This result suggests the predominant effect of paleo-geographic events at macro-geographic scale. In addition, intermediate divergences were found between rivers and lakes within the regions, presumably reflecting relatively recent interruptions of gene flow between hydrographic basins (RST = 0.24 - 0.32). The lowest differentiations were observed among connected populations within a basin (RST = 0.015 in the Volta basin). Comparison of temporal sample series revealed subtle changes in the gene pools in a few generations (F = 0 - 0.053). The estimated effective population sizes were 23 - 143 and the estimated migration rate was moderate (m ~ 0.094 - 0.097) in the Volta populations. Conclusions This study revealed clear hierarchical patterns of the population genetic structuring of O. niloticus in Africa. The effects of paleo-geographic and climatic events were predominant at macro-geographic scale, and the significant effect of geographic connectivity was detected at micro-geographic scale. The estimated effective population size, the moderate level of dispersal and the rapid temporal change in genetic composition might reflect a potential effect of life history strategy on population dynamics. This hypothesis deserves further investigation. The dynamic pattern revealed at micro-geographic and temporal scales appears important from a genetic resource management as well as from a biodiversity conservation point of view. PMID:22151746

Global weather and local butterflies: variable responses to a large-scale climate pattern along an elevational gradient.

PubMed

Pardikes, Nicholas A; Shapiro, Arthur M; Dyer, Lee A; Forister, Matthew L

2015-11-01

Understanding the spatial and temporal scales at which environmental variation affects populations of plants and animals is an important goal for modern population biology, especially in the context of shifting climatic conditions. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) generates climatic extremes of interannual variation, and has been shown to have significant effects on the diversity and abundance of a variety of terrestrial taxa. However, studies that have investigated the influence of such large-scale climate phenomena have often been limited in spatial and taxonomic scope. We used 23 years (1988-2010) of a long-term butterfly monitoring data set to explore associations between variation in population abundance of 28 butterfly species and variation in ENSO-derived sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) across 10 sites that encompass an elevational range of 2750 m in the Sierra Nevada mountain range of California. Our analysis detected a positive, regional effect of increased SSTA on butterfly abundance (wetter and warmer years predict more butterfly observations), yet the influence of SSTA on butterfly abundances varied along the elevational gradient, and also differed greatly among the 28 species. Migratory species had the strongest relationships with ENSO-derived SSTA, suggesting that large-scale climate indices are particularly valuable for understanding biotic-abiotic relationships of the most mobile species. In general, however, the ecological effects of large-scale climatic factors are context dependent between sites and species. Our results illustrate the power of long-term data sets for revealing pervasive yet subtle climatic effects, but also caution against expectations derived from exemplar species or single locations in the study of biotic-abiotic interactions.

Genomic population structure of freshwater-resident and anadromous ide (Leuciscus idus) in north-western Europe.

PubMed

Skovrind, Mikkel; Olsen, Morten Tange; Vieira, Filipe Garrett; Pacheco, George; Carl, Henrik; Gilbert, M Thomas P; Møller, Peter Rask

2016-02-01

Climate change experts largely agree that future climate change and associated rises in oceanic water levels over the upcoming decades, will affect marine salinity levels. The subsequent effects on fish communities in estuarine ecosystems however, are less clear. One species that is likely to become increasingly affected by changes in salinity is the ide (Leuciscus idus). The ide is a stenohaline freshwater fish that primarily inhabits rivers, with frequent anadromous behavior when sea salinity does not exceed 15%. Unlike most other anadromous Baltic Sea fish species, the ide has yet to be subjected to large-scale stocking programs, and thus provides an excellent opportunity for studying the natural population structure across the current salinity gradient in the Danish Belts. To explore this, we used Genotyping-by-Sequencing to determine genomic population structure of both freshwater resident and anadromous ide populations in the western Baltic Sea region, and relate the results to the current salinity gradient and the demographic history of ide in the region. The sample sites separate into four clusters, with all anadromous populations in one cluster and the freshwater resident populations in the remaining three. Results demonstrate high level of differentiation between sites hosting freshwater resident populations, but little differentiation among anadromous populations. Thus ide exhibit the genomic population structure of both a typical freshwater species, and a typical anadromous species. In addition to providing a first insight into the population structure of north-western European ide, our data also (1) provide indications of a single illegal introduction by man; (2) suggest limited genetic effects of heavy pollution in the past; and (3) indicate possible historical anadromous behavior in a now isolated freshwater population.

Molecular Dissection of a Major Gene Effect on a Quantitative Trait: The Level of Alcohol Dehydrogenase Expression in Drosophila Melanogaster

PubMed Central

Stam, L. F.; Laurie, C. C.

1996-01-01

A molecular mapping experiment shows that a major gene effect on a quantitative trait, the level of alcohol dehydrogenase expression in Drosophila melanogaster, is due to multiple polymorphisms within the Adh gene. These polymorphisms are located in an intron, the coding sequence, and the 3' untranslated region. Because of nonrandom associations among polymorphisms at different sites, the individual effects combine (in some cases epistatically) to produce ``superalleles'' with large effect. These results have implications for the interpretation of major gene effects detected by quantitative trait locus mapping methods. They show that large effects due to a single locus may be due to multiple associated polymorphisms (or sequential fixations in isolated populations) rather than individual mutations of large effect. PMID:8978044

Measurement of the dipole in the cross-correlation function of galaxies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gaztanaga, Enrique; Bonvin, Camille; Hui, Lam, E-mail: gazta@ice.cat, E-mail: camille.bonvin@unige.ch, E-mail: lhui@astro.columbia.edu

It is usually assumed that in the linear regime the two-point correlation function of galaxies contains only a monopole, quadrupole and hexadecapole. Looking at cross-correlations between different populations of galaxies, this turns out not to be the case. In particular, the cross-correlations between a bright and a faint population of galaxies contain also a dipole. In this paper we present the first attempt to measure this dipole. We discuss the four types of effects that contribute to the dipole: relativistic distortions, evolution effect, wide-angle effect and large-angle effect. We show that the first three contributions are intrinsic anti-symmetric contributions thatmore » do not depend on the choice of angle used to measure the dipole. On the other hand the large-angle effect appears only if the angle chosen to extract the dipole breaks the symmetry of the problem. We show that the relativistic distortions, the evolution effect and the wide-angle effect are too small to be detected in the LOWz and CMASS sample of the BOSS survey. On the other hand with a specific combination of angles we are able to measure the large-angle effect with high significance. We emphasise that this large-angle dipole does not contain new physical information, since it is just a geometrical combination of the monopole and the quadrupole. However this measurement, which is in excellent agreement with theoretical predictions, validates our method for extracting the dipole from the two-point correlation function and it opens the way to the detection of relativistic effects in future surveys like e.g. DESI.« less

An evaluation of sex-age-kill (SAK) model performance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Millspaugh, Joshua J.; Skalski, John R.; Townsend, Richard L.; Diefenbach, Duane R.; Boyce, Mark S.; Hansen, Lonnie P.; Kammermeyer, Kent

2009-01-01

The sex-age-kill (SAK) model is widely used to estimate abundance of harvested large mammals, including white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus). Despite a long history of use, few formal evaluations of SAK performance exist. We investigated how violations of the stable age distribution and stationary population assumption, changes to male or female harvest, stochastic effects (i.e., random fluctuations in recruitment and survival), and sampling efforts influenced SAK estimation. When the simulated population had a stable age distribution and λ > 1, the SAK model underestimated abundance. Conversely, when λ < 1, the SAK overestimated abundance. When changes to male harvest were introduced, SAK estimates were opposite the true population trend. In contrast, SAK estimates were robust to changes in female harvest rates. Stochastic effects caused SAK estimates to fluctuate about their equilibrium abundance, but the effect dampened as the size of the surveyed population increased. When we considered both stochastic effects and sampling error at a deer management unit scale the resultant abundance estimates were within ±121.9% of the true population level 95% of the time. These combined results demonstrate extreme sensitivity to model violations and scale of analysis. Without changes to model formulation, the SAK model will be biased when λ ≠ 1. Furthermore, any factor that alters the male harvest rate, such as changes to regulations or changes in hunter attitudes, will bias population estimates. Sex-age-kill estimates may be precise at large spatial scales, such as the state level, but less so at the individual management unit level. Alternative models, such as statistical age-at-harvest models, which require similar data types, might allow for more robust, broad-scale demographic assessments.

Cheetahs and wild dogs show contrasting patterns of suppression by lions.

PubMed

Swanson, Alexandra; Caro, Tim; Davies-Mostert, Harriet; Mills, Michael G L; Macdonald, David W; Borner, Markus; Masenga, Emmanuel; Packer, Craig

2014-11-01

Top predators can dramatically suppress populations of smaller predators, with cascading effects throughout communities, and this pressure is often unquestioningly accepted as a constraint on mesopredator populations. In this study, we reassess whether African lions suppress populations of cheetahs and African wild dogs and examine possible mechanisms for coexistence between these species. Using long-term records from Serengeti National Park, we tested 30 years of population data for evidence of mesopredator suppression, and we examined six years of concurrent radio-telemetry data for evidence of large-scale spatial displacement. The Serengeti lion population nearly tripled between 1966 and 1998; during this time, wild dogs declined but cheetah numbers remained largely unchanged. Prior to their local extinction, wild dogs primarily occupied low lion density areas and apparently abandoned the long-term study area as the lion population 'saturated' the region. In contrast, cheetahs mostly utilized areas of high lion density, and the stability of the cheetah population indicates that neither high levels of lion-inflicted mortality nor behavioural avoidance inflict sufficient demographic consequences to translate into population-level effects. Population data from fenced reserves in southern Africa revealed a similar contrast between wild dogs and cheetahs in their ability to coexist with lions. These findings demonstrate differential responses of subordinate species within the same guild and challenge a widespread perception that lions undermine cheetah conservation efforts. Paired with several recent studies that document fine-scale lion-avoidance by cheetahs, this study further highlights fine-scale spatial avoidance as a possible mechanism for mitigating mesopredator suppression. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.

Projections of water stress based on an ensemble of socioeconomic growth and climate change scenarios: A case study in Asia

DOE PAGES

Fant, Charles; Schlosser, C. Adam; Gao, Xiang; ...

2016-03-30

The sustainability of future water resources is of paramount importance and is affected by many factors, including population, wealth and climate. Inherent in current methods to estimate these factors in the future is the uncertainty of their prediction. In this study, we integrate a large ensemble of scenarios—internally consistent across economics, emissions, climate, and population—to develop a risk portfolio of water stress over a large portion of Asia that includes China, India, and Mainland Southeast Asia in a future with unconstrained emissions. We isolate the effects of socioeconomic growth from the effects of climate change in order to identify themore » primary drivers of stress on water resources. We find that water needs related to socioeconomic changes, which are currently small, are likely to increase considerably in the future, often overshadowing the effect of climate change on levels of water stress. As a result, there is a high risk of severe water stress in densely populated watersheds by 2050, compared to recent history. There is strong evidence to suggest that, in the absence of autonomous adaptation or societal response, a much larger portion of the region’s population will live in water-stressed regions in the near future. Lastly, tools and studies such as these can effectively investigate large-scale system sensitivities and can be useful in engaging and informing decision makers.« less

A multi-scale assessment of population connectivity in African lions (Panthera leo) in response to landscape change

Treesearch

Samuel A. Cushman; Nicholas B. Elliot; David W. Macdonald; Andrew J. Loveridge

2015-01-01

Habitat loss and fragmentation are among the major drivers of population declines and extinction, particularly in large carnivores. Connectivity models provide practical tools for assessing fragmentation effects and developing mitigation or conservation responses. To be useful to conservation practitioners, connectivity models need to incorporate multiple scales and...

Understanding Information Anxiety and How Academic Librarians Can Minimize Its Effects

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eklof, Ashley

2013-01-01

Information anxiety is a serious issue that has the potential to hinder the success of a large percentage of the population in both education and professional settings. It has become more prevalent as societies begin to focus more on the value of technology, multitasking, and instant information access. The majority of the population has felt, to…

Red-breasted nuthatches detect early increases in spruce budworm populations

Treesearch

Hewlette S. Crawford; Daniel T. Jennings; Timothy L. Stone

1990-01-01

Early suppression .of increasing spruce budworm populations is essential to prevent epidemics; however, early changes in budworm numbers are difficult to detect. An effective and inexpensive method to detect early increases is needed. Red-breasted nuthatches eat more spruce budworm larvae and pupae as the insect increases in number. We estimated the number of large...

Implications of Small Samples for Generalization: Adjustments and Rules of Thumb

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tipton, Elizabeth; Hallberg, Kelly; Hedges, Larry V.; Chan, Wendy

2015-01-01

Policy-makers are frequently interested in understanding how effective a particular intervention may be for a specific (and often broad) population. In many fields, particularly education and social welfare, the ideal form of these evaluations is a large-scale randomized experiment. Recent research has highlighted that sites in these large-scale…

Biased phylodynamic inferences from analysing clusters of viral sequences

PubMed Central

Xiang, Fei; Frost, Simon D. W.

2017-01-01

Abstract Phylogenetic methods are being increasingly used to help understand the transmission dynamics of measurably evolving viruses, including HIV. Clusters of highly similar sequences are often observed, which appear to follow a ‘power law’ behaviour, with a small number of very large clusters. These clusters may help to identify subpopulations in an epidemic, and inform where intervention strategies should be implemented. However, clustering of samples does not necessarily imply the presence of a subpopulation with high transmission rates, as groups of closely related viruses can also occur due to non-epidemiological effects such as over-sampling. It is important to ensure that observed phylogenetic clustering reflects true heterogeneity in the transmitting population, and is not being driven by non-epidemiological effects. We qualify the effect of using a falsely identified ‘transmission cluster’ of sequences to estimate phylodynamic parameters including the effective population size and exponential growth rate under several demographic scenarios. Our simulation studies show that taking the maximum size cluster to re-estimate parameters from trees simulated under a randomly mixing, constant population size coalescent process systematically underestimates the overall effective population size. In addition, the transmission cluster wrongly resembles an exponential or logistic growth model 99% of the time. We also illustrate the consequences of false clusters in exponentially growing coalescent and birth-death trees, where again, the growth rate is skewed upwards. This has clear implications for identifying clusters in large viral databases, where a false cluster could result in wasted intervention resources. PMID:28852573

Evidence for the effect of disease management: is $1 billion a year a good investment?

PubMed

Mattke, Soeren; Seid, Michael; Ma, Sai

2007-12-01

To assess the evidence for the effect of disease management on quality of care, disease control, and cost, with a focus on population-based programs. Literature review. We conducted a literature search for and a structured review of studies on population-based disease management programs, as well as for reviews and meta-analyses of disease management interventions. We identified 3 evaluations of large-scale population-based programs, as well as 10 meta-analyses and 16 systematic reviews, covering 317 unique studies. We found consistent evidence that disease management improves processes of care and disease control but no conclusive support for its effect on health outcomes. Overall, disease management does not seem to affect utilization except for a reduction in hospitalization rates among patients with congestive heart failure and an increase in outpatient care and prescription drug use among patients with depression. When the costs of the intervention were appropriately accounted for and subtracted from any savings, there was no conclusive evidence that disease management leads to a net reduction of direct medical costs. Although disease management seems to improve quality of care, its effect on cost is uncertain. Most of the evidence to date addresses small-scale programs targeting high-risk individuals, while only 3 studies evaluate large population-based interventions, implying that little is known about their effect. Payers and policy makers should remain skeptical about vendor claims and should demand supporting evidence based on transparent and scientifically sound methods.

Effects of local and large-scale climate patterns on estuarine resident fishes: The example of Pomatoschistus microps and Pomatoschistus minutus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nyitrai, Daniel; Martinho, Filipe; Dolbeth, Marina; Rito, João; Pardal, Miguel A.

2013-12-01

Large-scale and local climate patterns are known to influence several aspects of the life cycle of marine fish. In this paper, we used a 9-year database (2003-2011) to analyse the populations of two estuarine resident fishes, Pomatoschistus microps and Pomatoschistus minutus, in order to determine their relationships with varying environmental stressors operating over local and large scales. This study was performed in the Mondego estuary, Portugal. Firstly, the variations in abundance, growth, population structure and secondary production were evaluated. These species appeared in high densities in the beginning of the study period, with subsequent occasional high annual density peaks, while their secondary production was lower in dry years. The relationships between yearly fish abundance and the environmental variables were evaluated separately for both species using Spearman correlation analysis, considering the yearly abundance peaks for the whole population, juveniles and adults. Among the local climate patterns, precipitation, river runoff, salinity and temperature were used in the analyses, and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and sea surface temperature (SST) were tested as large-scale factors. For P. microps, precipitation and NAO were the significant factors explaining abundance of the whole population, the adults and the juveniles as well. Regarding P. minutus, for the whole population, juveniles and adults river runoff was the significant predictor. The results for both species suggest a differential influence of climate patterns on the various life cycle stages, confirming also the importance of estuarine resident fishes as indicators of changes in local and large-scale climate patterns, related to global climate change.

Ecosystem Scale Declines in Elk Recruitment and Population Growth with Wolf Colonization: A Before-After-Control-Impact Approach

PubMed Central

Christianson, David; Creel, Scott

2014-01-01

The reintroduction of wolves (Canis lupus) to Yellowstone provided the unusual opportunity for a quasi-experimental test of the effects of wolf predation on their primary prey (elk – Cervus elaphus) in a system where top-down, bottom-up, and abiotic forces on prey population dynamics were closely and consistently monitored before and after reintroduction. Here, we examined data from 33 years for 12 elk population segments spread across southwestern Montana and northwestern Wyoming in a large scale before-after-control-impact analysis of the effects of wolves on elk recruitment and population dynamics. Recruitment, as measured by the midwinter juvenile∶female ratio, was a strong determinant of elk dynamics, and declined by 35% in elk herds colonized by wolves as annual population growth shifted from increasing to decreasing. Negative effects of population density and winter severity on recruitment, long recognized as important for elk dynamics, were detected in uncolonized elk herds and in wolf-colonized elk herds prior to wolf colonization, but not after wolf colonization. Growing season precipitation and harvest had no detectable effect on recruitment in either wolf treatment or colonization period, although harvest rates of juveniles∶females declined by 37% in wolf-colonized herds. Even if it is assumed that mortality due to predation is completely additive, liberal estimates of wolf predation rates on juvenile elk could explain no more than 52% of the total decline in juvenile∶female ratios in wolf-colonized herds, after accounting for the effects of other limiting factors. Collectively, these long-term, large-scale patterns align well with prior studies that have reported substantial decrease in elk numbers immediately after wolf recolonization, relatively weak additive effects of direct wolf predation on elk survival, and decreased reproduction and recruitment with exposure to predation risk from wolves. PMID:25028933

Testing for post-copulatory selection for major histocompatibility complex genotype in a semi-free-ranging primate population.

PubMed

Setchell, Joanna M; Abbott, Kristin M; Gonzalez, Jean-Paul; Knapp, Leslie A

2013-10-01

A large body of evidence suggests that major histocompatibility complex (MHC) genotype influences mate choice. However, few studies have investigated MHC-mediated post-copulatory mate choice under natural, or even semi-natural, conditions. We set out to explore this question in a large semi-free-ranging population of mandrills (Mandrillus sphinx) using MHC-DRB genotypes for 127 parent-offspring triads. First, we showed that offspring MHC heterozygosity correlates positively with parental MHC dissimilarity suggesting that mating among MHC dissimilar mates is efficient in increasing offspring MHC diversity. Second, we compared the haplotypes of the parental dyad with those of the offspring to test whether post-copulatory sexual selection favored offspring with two different MHC haplotypes, more diverse gamete combinations, or greater within-haplotype diversity. Limited statistical power meant that we could only detect medium or large effect sizes. Nevertheless, we found no evidence for selection for heterozygous offspring when parents share a haplotype (large effect size), genetic dissimilarity between parental haplotypes (we could detect an odds ratio of ≥1.86), or within-haplotype diversity (medium-large effect). These findings suggest that comparing parental and offspring haplotypes may be a useful approach to test for post-copulatory selection when matings cannot be observed, as is the case in many study systems. However, it will be extremely difficult to determine conclusively whether post-copulatory selection mechanisms for MHC genotype exist, particularly if the effect sizes are small, due to the difficulty in obtaining a sufficiently large sample. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Climate warming alters effects of management on population viability of threatened species: results from a 30-year experimental study on a rare orchid.

PubMed

Sletvold, Nina; Dahlgren, Johan P; Oien, Dag-Inge; Moen, Asbjørn; Ehrlén, Johan

2013-09-01

Climate change is expected to influence the viability of populations both directly and indirectly, via species interactions. The effects of large-scale climate change are also likely to interact with local habitat conditions. Management actions designed to preserve threatened species therefore need to adapt both to the prevailing climate and local conditions. Yet, few studies have separated the direct and indirect effects of climatic variables on the viability of local populations and discussed the implications for optimal management. We used 30 years of demographic data to estimate the simultaneous effects of management practice and among-year variation in four climatic variables on individual survival, growth and fecundity in one coastal and one inland population of the perennial orchid Dactylorhiza lapponica in Norway. Current management, mowing, is expected to reduce competitive interactions. Statistical models of how climate and management practice influenced vital rates were incorporated into matrix population models to quantify effects on population growth rate. Effects of climate differed between mown and control plots in both populations. In particular, population growth rate increased more strongly with summer temperature in mown plots than in control plots. Population growth rate declined with spring temperature in the inland population, and with precipitation in the coastal population, and the decline was stronger in control plots in both populations. These results illustrate that both direct and indirect effects of climate change are important for population viability and that net effects depend both on local abiotic conditions and on biotic conditions in terms of management practice and intensity of competition. The results also show that effects of management practices influencing competitive interactions can strongly depend on climatic factors. We conclude that interactions between climate and management should be considered to reliably predict future population viability and optimize conservation actions. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Effect of water hardness on cardiovascular mortality: an ecological time series approach.

PubMed

Lake, I R; Swift, L; Catling, L A; Abubakar, I; Sabel, C E; Hunter, P R

2010-12-01

Numerous studies have suggested an inverse relationship between drinking water hardness and cardiovascular disease. However, the weight of evidence is insufficient for the WHO to implement a health-based guideline for water hardness. This study followed WHO recommendations to assess the feasibility of using ecological time series data from areas exposed to step changes in water hardness to investigate this issue. Monthly time series of cardiovascular mortality data, subdivided by age and sex, were systematically collected from areas reported to have undergone step changes in water hardness, calcium and magnesium in England and Wales between 1981 and 2005. Time series methods were used to investigate the effect of water hardness changes on mortality. No evidence was found of an association between step changes in drinking water hardness or drinking water calcium and cardiovascular mortality. The lack of areas with large populations and a reasonable change in magnesium levels precludes a definitive conclusion about the impact of this cation. We use our results on the variability of the series to consider the data requirements (size of population, time of water hardness change) for such a study to have sufficient power. Only data from areas with large populations (>500,000) are likely to be able to detect a change of the size suggested by previous studies (rate ratio of 1.06). Ecological time series studies of populations exposed to changes in drinking water hardness may not be able to provide conclusive evidence on the links between water hardness and cardiovascular mortality unless very large populations are studied. Investigations of individuals may be more informative.

Sensitive response of a model of symbiotic ecosystem to seasonal periodic drive

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rekker, A.; Lumi, N.; Mankin, R.

2014-11-01

A symbiotic ecosysytem (metapopulation) is studied by means of the stochastic Lotka-Volterra model with generalized Verhulst self-regulation. The effect of variable environment on the carrying capacities of populations is taken into account as an asymmetric dichotomous noise and as a deterministic periodic stimulus. In the framework of the mean-field theory an explicit self-consistency equation for the system in the long-time limit is presented. Also, expressions for the probability distribution and for the moments of the population size are found. In certain cases the mean population size exhibits large oscillations in time, even if the amplitude of the seasonal environmental drive is small. Particularly, it is shown that the occurrence of large oscillations of the mean population size can be controlled by noise parameters (such as amplitude and correlation time) and by the coupling strength of the symbiotic interaction between species.

Extinction phase transitions in a model of ecological and evolutionary dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barghathi, Hatem; Tackkett, Skye; Vojta, Thomas

2017-07-01

We study the non-equilibrium phase transition between survival and extinction of spatially extended biological populations using an agent-based model. We especially focus on the effects of global temporal fluctuations of the environmental conditions, i.e., temporal disorder. Using large-scale Monte-Carlo simulations of up to 3 × 107 organisms and 105 generations, we find the extinction transition in time-independent environments to be in the well-known directed percolation universality class. In contrast, temporal disorder leads to a highly unusual extinction transition characterized by logarithmically slow population decay and enormous fluctuations even for large populations. The simulations provide strong evidence for this transition to be of exotic infinite-noise type, as recently predicted by a renormalization group theory. The transition is accompanied by temporal Griffiths phases featuring a power-law dependence of the life time on the population size.

A Ruby in the Rubbish: Beneficial Mutations, Deleterious Mutations and the Evolution of Sex

PubMed Central

Peck, J. R.

1994-01-01

This study presents a mathematical model in which a single beneficial mutation arises in a very large population that is subject to frequent deleterious mutations. The results suggest that, if the population is sexual, then the deleterious mutations will have little effect on the ultimate fate of the beneficial mutation. However, if most offspring are produced asexually, then the probability that the beneficial mutation will be lost from the population may be greatly enhanced by the deleterious mutations. Thus, sexual populations may adapt much more quickly than populations where most reproduction is asexual. Some of the results were produced using computer simulation methods, and a technique was developed that allows treatment of arbitrarily large numbers of individuals in a reasonable amount of computer time. This technique may be of prove useful for the analysis of a wide variety of models, though there are some constraints on its applicability. For example, the technique requires that reproduction can be described by Poisson processes. PMID:8070669

Mitochondrial DNA sequence variation and phylogeography of the scarlet kingsnake (Lampropeltis elapsoides).

PubMed

Friedman, Michael; Schaffer, Les

2011-02-01

BACKGROUND AND AIMS. With the goal of assessing population structure and geographic distribution of haplotype lineages among Lampropeltis elapsoides, we sequenced the ND4 mitochondrial DNA locus from 96 specimens of this snake across its area of distribution. MATERIALS AND METHODS. We relied heavily on formalin-fixed museum specimens to accomplish this analysis. RESULTS. The sequence alignment consisted of 491 bp of the selected gene, with 28% missing data. A simulation used to assess the effect of missing data on population genetic and phylogenetic resolution indicated increased character conflict, but with minimal loss of phylogenetic structure. CONCLUSION. This limited dataset suggests that L. elapsoides constitutes a largely unstructured population, with both widespread haplotypes and large number of private haplotypes, a moderate level of nucleotide diversity, and a low, but significant, degree of north-south population differentiation. Haplotype structure and frequency, nucleotide frequency, and values for Tajima's D and Fu's F(S) indicate a recent range or population expansion following a historic bottleneck.

Memory and obesity affect the population dynamics of asexual freshwater planarians

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunkel, Jörn; Talbot, Jared; Schötz, Eva-Maria

2011-04-01

Asexual reproduction in multicellular organisms is a complex biophysical process that is not yet well understood quantitatively. Here, we report a detailed population study for the asexual freshwater planarian Schmidtea mediterranea, which can reproduce via transverse fission due to a large stem cell contingent. Our long-term observations of isolated non-interacting planarian populations reveal that the characteristic fission waiting time distributions for head and tail fragments differ significantly from each other. The stochastic fission dynamics of tail fragments exhibits non-negligible memory effects, implying that an accurate mathematical description of future data should be based on non-Markovian tree models. By comparing the effective growth of non-interacting planarian populations with those of self-interacting populations, we are able to quantify the influence of interactions between flatworms and physical conditions on the population growth. A surprising result is the non-monotonic relationship between effective population growth rate and nutrient supply: planarians exhibit a tendency to become 'obese' if the feeding frequency exceeds a critical level, resulting in a decreased reproduction activity. This suggests that these flatworms, which possess many genes homologous to those of humans, could become a new model system for studying dietary effects on reproduction and regeneration in multicellular organisms.

Large-scale absence of sharks on reefs in the greater-Caribbean: a footprint of human pressures.

PubMed

Ward-Paige, Christine A; Mora, Camilo; Lotze, Heike K; Pattengill-Semmens, Christy; McClenachan, Loren; Arias-Castro, Ery; Myers, Ransom A

2010-08-05

In recent decades, large pelagic and coastal shark populations have declined dramatically with increased fishing; however, the status of sharks in other systems such as coral reefs remains largely unassessed despite a long history of exploitation. Here we explore the contemporary distribution and sighting frequency of sharks on reefs in the greater-Caribbean and assess the possible role of human pressures on observed patterns. We analyzed 76,340 underwater surveys carried out by trained volunteer divers between 1993 and 2008. Surveys were grouped within one km2 cells, which allowed us to determine the contemporary geographical distribution and sighting frequency of sharks. Sighting frequency was calculated as the ratio of surveys with sharks to the total number of surveys in each cell. We compared sighting frequency to the number of people in the cell vicinity and used population viability analyses to assess the effects of exploitation on population trends. Sharks, with the exception of nurse sharks occurred mainly in areas with very low human population or strong fishing regulations and marine conservation. Population viability analysis suggests that exploitation alone could explain the large-scale absence; however, this pattern is likely to be exacerbated by additional anthropogenic stressors, such as pollution and habitat degradation, that also correlate with human population. Human pressures in coastal zones have lead to the broad-scale absence of sharks on reefs in the greater-Caribbean. Preventing further loss of sharks requires urgent management measures to curb fishing mortality and to mitigate other anthropogenic stressors to protect sites where sharks still exist. The fact that sharks still occur in some densely populated areas where strong fishing regulations are in place indicates the possibility of success and encourages the implementation of conservation measures.

Declines revisited: Long-term recovery and spatial population dynamics oftailed frog larvae after wildfire

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hossack, Blake R.; Honeycutt, Richard

2017-01-01

Drought has fueled an increased frequency and severity of large wildfires in many ecosystems. Despite an increase in research on wildfire effects on vertebrates, the vast majority of it has focused on short-term (< 5 years) effects and there is still little information on the time scale of population recovery for species that decline in abundance after fire. In 2003, a large wildfire in Montana (USA) burned the watersheds of four of eight streams that we sampled for larval Rocky Mountain tailed frogs (Ascaphus montanus) in 2001. Surveys during 2004–2005 revealed reduced abundance of larvae in burned streams relative to unburned streams, with greater declines associated with increased fire extent. Rocky Mountain tailed frogs have low vagility and have several unusual life-history traits that could slow population recovery, including an extended larval period (4 years), delayed sexual maturity (6–8 years), and low fecundity (< 50 eggs/year). To determine if abundance remained depressed since the 2003 wildfire, we repeated surveys during 2014–2015 and found relative abundance of larvae in burned and unburned streams had nearly converged to pre-fire conditions within two generations. The negative effects of burn extent on larval abundance weakened> 58% within 12 years after the fire. We also found moderate synchrony among populations in unburned streams and negative spatial autocorrelation among populations in burned streams. We suspect negative spatial autocorrelation among spatially-clustered burned streams reflected increased post-fire patchiness in resources and different rates of local recovery. Our results add to a growing body of work that suggests populations in intact ecosystems tend to be resilient to habitat changes caused by wildfire. Our results also provide important insights into recovery times of populations that have been negatively affected by severe wildfire.

Incorporating evolutionary processes into population viability models.

PubMed

Pierson, Jennifer C; Beissinger, Steven R; Bragg, Jason G; Coates, David J; Oostermeijer, J Gerard B; Sunnucks, Paul; Schumaker, Nathan H; Trotter, Meredith V; Young, Andrew G

2015-06-01

We examined how ecological and evolutionary (eco-evo) processes in population dynamics could be better integrated into population viability analysis (PVA). Complementary advances in computation and population genomics can be combined into an eco-evo PVA to offer powerful new approaches to understand the influence of evolutionary processes on population persistence. We developed the mechanistic basis of an eco-evo PVA using individual-based models with individual-level genotype tracking and dynamic genotype-phenotype mapping to model emergent population-level effects, such as local adaptation and genetic rescue. We then outline how genomics can allow or improve parameter estimation for PVA models by providing genotypic information at large numbers of loci for neutral and functional genome regions. As climate change and other threatening processes increase in rate and scale, eco-evo PVAs will become essential research tools to evaluate the effects of adaptive potential, evolutionary rescue, and locally adapted traits on persistence. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

Non-linear effects of soda taxes on consumption and weight outcomes.

PubMed

Fletcher, Jason M; Frisvold, David E; Tefft, Nathan

2015-05-01

The potential health impacts of imposing large taxes on soda to improve population health have been of interest for over a decade. As estimates of the effects of existing soda taxes with low rates suggest little health improvements, recent proposals suggest that large taxes may be effective in reducing weight because of non-linear consumption responses or threshold effects. This paper tests this hypothesis in two ways. First, we estimate non-linear effects of taxes using the range of current rates. Second, we leverage the sudden, relatively large soda tax increase in two states during the early 1990s combined with new synthetic control methods useful for comparative case studies. Our findings suggest virtually no evidence of non-linear or threshold effects. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Experimental Evolution and Heart Function in Drosophila.

PubMed

Shahrestani, Parvin; Burke, Molly K; Birse, Ryan; Kezos, James N; Ocorr, Karen; Mueller, Laurence D; Rose, Michael R; Bodmer, Rolf

Drosophila melanogaster is a good model species for the study of heart function. However, most previous work on D. melanogaster heart function has focused on the effects of large-effect genetic variants. We compare heart function among 18 D. melanogaster populations that have been selected for altered development time, aging, or stress resistance. We find that populations with faster development and faster aging have increased heart dysfunction, measured as percentage heart failure after electrical pacing. Experimental evolution of different triglyceride levels, by contrast, has little effect on heart function. Evolved differences in heart function correlate with allele frequency changes at many loci of small effect. Genomic analysis of these populations produces a list of candidate loci that might affect cardiac function at the intersection of development, aging, and metabolic control mechanisms.

Saccharomyces cerevisiae: a sexy yeast with a prion problem.

PubMed

Kelly, Amy C; Wickner, Reed B

2013-01-01

Yeast prions are infectious proteins that spread exclusively by mating. The frequency of prions in the wild therefore largely reflects the rate of spread by mating counterbalanced by prion growth slowing effects in the host. We recently showed that the frequency of outcross mating is about 1% of mitotic doublings with 23-46% of total matings being outcrosses. These findings imply that even the mildest forms of the [PSI+], [URE3] and [PIN+] prions impart > 1% growth/survival detriment on their hosts. Our estimate of outcrossing suggests that Saccharomyces cerevisiae is far more sexual than previously thought and would therefore be more responsive to the adaptive effects of natural selection compared with a strictly asexual yeast. Further, given its large effective population size, a growth/survival detriment of > 1% for yeast prions should strongly select against prion-infected strains in wild populations of Saccharomyces cerevisiae.

How Corridors Reduce Indigo Bunting Nest Success.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Weldon, Aimee, J.

2006-08-01

Abstract: Corridors are a popular strategy to conserve biodiversity and promote gene flow in fragmented landscapes. Corridor effectiveness has been bolstered by the fact that no empirical field studies have shown negative effects on populations or communities. I tested the hypothesis that corridors increase nest predation in connected habitat fragments relative to unconnected fragments. I evaluated this hypothesis in a large-scale experimental system of open-habitat fragments that varied in shape and connectivity. Corridors increased nest predation rates in connected fragments relative to unconnected fragments with lower edge:area ratios. Nest predation rates were similar between connected and unconnected fragments with highermore » edge:area ratios. These results suggest that the increase in predator activity is largely attributable to edge effects incurred through the addition of a corridor. This is the first field study to demonstrate that corridors can negatively impact animal populations occupying connected fragments.« less

Implicit Social Biases in People with Autism

PubMed Central

Birmingham, Elina; Stanley, Damian; Nair, Remya; Adolphs, Ralph

2015-01-01

Implicit social biases are ubiquitous and are known to influence social behavior. A core diagnostic criterion of Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) is abnormal social behavior. Here we investigated the extent to which individuals with ASD might show a specific attenuation of implicit social biases, using the Implicit Association Test (IAT) across Social (gender, race) and Nonsocial (flowers/insect, shoes) categories. High-functioning adults with ASD showed intact but reduced IAT effects relative to healthy controls. Importantly, we observed no selective attenuation of implicit social (vs. nonsocial) biases in our ASD population. To extend these results, we collected data from a large online sample of the general population, and explored correlations between autistic traits and IAT effects. No associations were found between autistic traits and IAT effects for any of the categories tested in our online sample. Taken together, these results suggest that implicit social biases, as measured by the IAT, are largely intact in ASD. PMID:26386014

Phenotypic effects of an allele causing obligate parthenogenesis in a rotifer.

PubMed

Scheuerl, Thomas; Riss, Simone; Stelzer, Claus-Peter

2011-01-01

Transitions to obligate asexuality have been documented in almost all metazoan taxa, yet the conditions favoring such transitions remained largely unexplored. We address this problem in the rotifer Brachionus calyciflorus. In this species, a polymorphism at a single locus, op, can result in transitions to obligate parthenogenesis. Homozygotes for the op allele reproduce strictly by asexual reproduction, whereas heterozygous clones (+/op) and wild-type clones (+/+) are cyclical parthenogens that undergo sexual reproduction at high population densities. Here, we examine dosage effects of the op allele by analyzing various life-history characteristics and population traits in 10 clones for each of the 3 possible genotypes (op/op, +/op, and +/+). For most traits, we found that op/op clones differed significantly (P < 0.05) from the 2 cyclical parthenogenetic genotypes (+/+ and +/op). By contrast, the 2 cyclical parthenogenetic genotypes were almost indistinguishable, except that heterozygote individuals were slightly but significantly smaller in body size compared with wild-type individuals. Overall, this indicates that the op allele is selectively neutral in the heterozygous state. Thus, selective sweeps of this allele in natural populations would first require conditions favoring the generation of homozygotes. This may be given by inbreeding in very small populations or by double mutants in very large populations.

Phenotypic Effects of an Allele Causing Obligate Parthenogenesis in a Rotifer

PubMed Central

Scheuerl, Thomas; Riss, Simone

2011-01-01

Transitions to obligate asexuality have been documented in almost all metazoan taxa, yet the conditions favoring such transitions remained largely unexplored. We address this problem in the rotifer Brachionus calyciflorus. In this species, a polymorphism at a single locus, op, can result in transitions to obligate parthenogenesis. Homozygotes for the op allele reproduce strictly by asexual reproduction, whereas heterozygous clones (+/op) and wild-type clones (+/+) are cyclical parthenogens that undergo sexual reproduction at high population densities. Here, we examine dosage effects of the op allele by analyzing various life-history characteristics and population traits in 10 clones for each of the 3 possible genotypes (op/op, +/op, and +/+). For most traits, we found that op/op clones differed significantly (P < 0.05) from the 2 cyclical parthenogenetic genotypes (+/+ and +/op). By contrast, the 2 cyclical parthenogenetic genotypes were almost indistinguishable, except that heterozygote individuals were slightly but significantly smaller in body size compared with wild-type individuals. Overall, this indicates that the op allele is selectively neutral in the heterozygous state. Thus, selective sweeps of this allele in natural populations would first require conditions favoring the generation of homozygotes. This may be given by inbreeding in very small populations or by double mutants in very large populations. PMID:21576287

Within and between Population Variation in Epidermal Club Cell Investment in a Freshwater Prey Fish: A Cautionary Tale for Evolutionary Ecologists

PubMed Central

Manek, Aditya K.; Ferrari, Maud C. O.; Pollock, Robyn J.; Vicente, Daniel; Weber, Lynn P.; Chivers, Douglas P.

2013-01-01

Many prey fishes possess large club cells in their epidermis. The role of these cells has garnered considerable attention from evolutionary ecologists. These cells likely form part of the innate immune system of fishes, however, they also have an alarm function, releasing chemical cues that serve to warn nearby conspecifics of danger. Experiments aimed at understanding the selection pressures leading to the evolution of these cells have been hampered by a surprisingly large intraspecific variation in epidermal club cell (ECC) investment. The goal of our current work was to explore the magnitude and nature of this variation in ECC investment. In a field survey, we documented large differences in ECC investment both within and between several populations of minnows. We then tested whether we could experimentally reduce variation in mean ECC number by raising fish under standard laboratory conditions for 4 weeks. Fish from different populations responded very differently to being held under standard laboratory conditions; some populations showed an increase in ECC investment while others remained unchanged. More importantly, we found some evidence that we could reduce within population variation in ECC investment through time, but could not reduce among-population variation in mean ECC investment. Given the large variation we observed in wild fish and our limited ability to converge mean cell number by holding the fish under standard conditions, we caution that future studies may be hard pressed to find subtle effects of various experimental manipulations; this will make elucidating the selection pressures leading to the evolution of the cells challenging. PMID:23469175

Do social groups prevent Allee effect related extinctions?: The case of wild dogs.

PubMed

Angulo, Elena; Rasmussen, Greg S A; Macdonald, David W; Courchamp, Franck

2013-03-15

Allee effects may arise as the number of individuals decreases, thereby reducing opportunities for cooperation and constraining individual fitness, which can lead to population decrease and extinction. Obligate cooperative breeders rely on a minimum group size to subsist and are thus expected to be particularly susceptible to Allee effects. Although Allee effects in some components of the fitness of cooperative breeders have been detected, empirical confirmation of population extinction due to Allee effects is lacking yet. Because previous studies of cooperation have focused on Allee effects affecting individual fitness (component Allee effect) and population dynamics (demographic Allee effect), we argue that a new conceptual level of Allee effect, the group Allee effect, is needed to understand the special case of cooperative breeders. We hypothesize that whilst individuals are vulnerable to Allee effects, the group could act as a buffer against population extinction if: (i) individual fitness and group fate depend on group size but not on population size and (ii) group size is independent of population size (that is, at any population size, populations comprise both large and small groups). We found that both conditions apply for the African wild dog, Lycaon pictus, and data on this species in Zimbabwe support our hypothesis. The importance of groups in obligate cooperative breeders needs to be accounted for within the Allee effect framework, through a group Allee effect, because the group mediates the relationship between individual fitness and population performance. Whilst sociality is associated with a high probability of Allee effects, we suggest that cooperative individuals organized in relatively autonomous groups within populations might be behaving in ways that diminish extinction risks caused by Allee effects. This study opens new avenues to a better understanding of the role of the evolution of group-living on the probability of extinction faced by social species.

Genome-wide association study for feed efficiency and growth traits in U.S. beef cattle.

PubMed

Seabury, Christopher M; Oldeschulte, David L; Saatchi, Mahdi; Beever, Jonathan E; Decker, Jared E; Halley, Yvette A; Bhattarai, Eric K; Molaei, Maral; Freetly, Harvey C; Hansen, Stephanie L; Yampara-Iquise, Helen; Johnson, Kristen A; Kerley, Monty S; Kim, JaeWoo; Loy, Daniel D; Marques, Elisa; Neibergs, Holly L; Schnabel, Robert D; Shike, Daniel W; Spangler, Matthew L; Weaber, Robert L; Garrick, Dorian J; Taylor, Jeremy F

2017-05-18

Single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) arrays for domestic cattle have catalyzed the identification of genetic markers associated with complex traits for inclusion in modern breeding and selection programs. Using actual and imputed Illumina 778K genotypes for 3887 U.S. beef cattle from 3 populations (Angus, Hereford, SimAngus), we performed genome-wide association analyses for feed efficiency and growth traits including average daily gain (ADG), dry matter intake (DMI), mid-test metabolic weight (MMWT), and residual feed intake (RFI), with marker-based heritability estimates produced for all traits and populations. Moderate and/or large-effect QTL were detected for all traits in all populations, as jointly defined by the estimated proportion of variance explained (PVE) by marker effects (PVE ≥ 1.0%) and a nominal P-value threshold (P ≤ 5e-05). Lead SNPs with PVE ≥ 2.0% were considered putative evidence of large-effect QTL (n = 52), whereas those with PVE ≥ 1.0% but < 2.0% were considered putative evidence for moderate-effect QTL (n = 35). Identical or proximal lead SNPs associated with ADG, DMI, MMWT, and RFI collectively supported the potential for either pleiotropic QTL, or independent but proximal causal mutations for multiple traits within and between the analyzed populations. Marker-based heritability estimates for all investigated traits ranged from 0.18 to 0.60 using 778K genotypes, or from 0.17 to 0.57 using 50K genotypes (reduced from Illumina 778K HD to Illumina Bovine SNP50). An investigation to determine if QTL detected by 778K analysis could also be detected using 50K genotypes produced variable results, suggesting that 50K analyses were generally insufficient for QTL detection in these populations, and that relevant breeding or selection programs should be based on higher density analyses (imputed or directly ascertained). Fourteen moderate to large-effect QTL regions which ranged from being physically proximal (lead SNPs ≤ 3Mb) to fully overlapping for RFI, DMI, ADG, and MMWT were detected within and between populations, and included evidence for pleiotropy, proximal but independent causal mutations, and multi-breed QTL. Bovine positional candidate genes for these traits were functionally conserved across vertebrate species.

Maintaining evolvability.

PubMed

Crow, James F

2008-12-01

Although molecular methods, such as QTL mapping, have revealed a number of loci with large effects, it is still likely that the bulk of quantitative variability is due to multiple factors, each with small effect. Typically, these have a large additive component. Conventional wisdom argues that selection, natural or artificial, uses up additive variance and thus depletes its supply. Over time, the variance should be reduced, and at equilibrium be near zero. This is especially expected for fitness and traits highly correlated with it. Yet, populations typically have a great deal of additive variance, and do not seem to run out of genetic variability even after many generations of directional selection. Long-term selection experiments show that populations continue to retain seemingly undiminished additive variance despite large changes in the mean value. I propose that there are several reasons for this. (i) The environment is continually changing so that what was formerly most fit no longer is. (ii) There is an input of genetic variance from mutation, and sometimes from migration. (iii) As intermediate-frequency alleles increase in frequency towards one, producing less variance (as p --> 1, p(1 - p) --> 0), others that were originally near zero become more common and increase the variance. Thus, a roughly constant variance is maintained. (iv) There is always selection for fitness and for characters closely related to it. To the extent that the trait is heritable, later generations inherit a disproportionate number of genes acting additively on the trait, thus increasing genetic variance. For these reasons a selected population retains its ability to evolve. Of course, genes with large effect are also important. Conspicuous examples are the small number of loci that changed teosinte to maize, and major phylogenetic changes in the animal kingdom. The relative importance of these along with duplications, chromosome rearrangements, horizontal transmission and polyploidy is yet to be determined. It is likely that only a case-by-case analysis will provide the answers. Despite the difficulties that complex interactions cause for evolution in Mendelian populations, such populations nevertheless evolve very well. Longlasting species must have evolved mechanisms for coping with such problems. Since such difficulties do not arise in asexual populations, a comparison of epistatic patterns in closely related sexual and asexual species might provide some important insights.

Large-scale mitochondrial COI gene sequence variability reflects the complex colonization history of the invasive soft-shell clam, Mya arenaria (L.) (Bivalvia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lasota, Rafal; Pierscieniak, Karolina; Garcia, Pascale; Simon-Bouhet, Benoit; Wolowicz, Maciej

2016-11-01

The aim of the study was to determine genetic diversity in the soft-shell clam Mya arenaria on a wide geographical scale using mtDNA COI gene sequences. Low levels of genetic diversity was found, which can most likely be explained by a bottleneck effect during Pleistocene glaciations and/or selection. The geographical genetic structuring of the studied populations was also very low. The star-like phylogeny of the haplotypes indicates a relatively recent, rapid population expansion following the glaciation period and repeated expansion following the founder effect(s) after the initial introduction of the soft-shell clam to Europe. North American populations are characterized by the largest number of haplotypes, including rare ones, as expected for native populations. Because of the founder effect connected with initial and repeated expansion events, European populations have significantly lower numbers of haplotypes in comparison with those of North America. We also observed subtle differentiations among populations from the North and Baltic seas. The recently founded soft-shell clam population in the Black Sea exhibited the highest genetic similarity to Baltic populations, which confirmed the hypothesis that M. arenaria was introduced to the Gulf of Odessa from the Baltic Sea. The most enigmatic results were obtained for populations from the White Sea, which were characterized by high genetic affinity with American populations.

Phantoms of the forest: legacy risk effects of a regionally extinct large carnivore.

PubMed

Sahlén, Ellinor; Noell, Sonja; DePerno, Christopher S; Kindberg, Jonas; Spong, Göran; Cromsigt, Joris P G M

2016-02-01

The increased abundance of large carnivores in Europe is a conservation success, but the impact on the behavior and population dynamics of prey species is generally unknown. In Europe, the recolonization of large carnivores often occurs in areas where humans have greatly modified the landscape through forestry or agriculture. Currently, we poorly understand the effects of recolonizing large carnivores on extant prey species in anthropogenic landscapes. Here, we investigated if ungulate prey species showed innate responses to the scent of a regionally exterminated but native large carnivore, and whether the responses were affected by human-induced habitat openness. We experimentally introduced brown bear Ursus arctos scent to artificial feeding sites and used camera traps to document the responses of three sympatric ungulate species. In addition to controls without scent, reindeer scent Rangifer tarandus was used as a noncarnivore, novel control scent. Fallow deer Dama dama strongly avoided areas with bear scent. In the presence of bear scent, all ungulate species generally used open sites more than closed sites, whereas the opposite was observed at sites with reindeer scent or without scent. The opening of forest habitat by human practices, such as forestry and agriculture, creates a larger gradient in habitat openness than available in relatively unaffected closed forest systems, which may create opportunities for prey to alter their habitat selection and reduce predation risk in human-modified systems that do not exist in more natural forest systems. Increased knowledge about antipredator responses in areas subjected to anthropogenic change is important because these responses may affect prey population dynamics, lower trophic levels, and attitudes toward large carnivores. These aspects may be of particular relevance in the light of the increasing wildlife populations across much of Europe.

North-South Colonization Associated with Local Adaptation of the Wild Tomato Species Solanum chilense.

PubMed

Böndel, Katharina B; Lainer, Hilde; Nosenko, Tetyana; Mboup, Mamadou; Tellier, Aurélien; Stephan, Wolfgang

2015-11-01

After colonization population sizes may vary across the species range depending on environmental conditions and following colonizations. An interesting question is whether local adaptation occurs more frequently in large ancestral populations or in small derived populations. A higher number of new mutations and a lower effect of genetic drift should favor selection in large populations, whereas small derived populations may require an initial local adaptation event to facilitate the colonization of new habitats. Wild tomatoes are native to a broad range of different habitats characterized by variable abiotic conditions in South America, and represent an ideal system to study this interplay between demography and natural selection. Population genetic analyses and statistical inference of past demography were conducted on pooled-sequencing data from 30 genes (8,080 single nucleotide polymorphisms) from an extensive sampling of 23 Solanum chilense populations over Chile and Peru. We reveal first a north-south colonization associated with relaxed purifying selection in the south as shown by a decrease of genetic variation and an increasing proportion of nonsynonymous polymorphism from north to south, and population substructure with at least four genetic groups. Second, we uncover a dual picture of adaptation consisting of 1) a decreasing proportion of adaptive amino acid substitutions from north to south suggesting that adaptation is favored in large populations, whereas 2) signatures of local adaptation predominantly occur in the smaller populations from the marginal ranges in the south. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Portfolio theory as a management tool to guide conservation and restoration of multi-stock fish populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

DuFour, Mark R.; May, Cassandra J.; Roseman, Edward F.; Ludsin, Stuart A.; Vandergoot, Christopher S.; Pritt, Jeremy J.; Fraker, Michael E.; Davis, Jeremiah J.; Tyson, Jeffery T.; Miner, Jeffery G.; Marschall, Elizabeth A.; Mayer, Christine M.

2015-01-01

Habitat degradation and harvest have upset the natural buffering mechanism (i.e., portfolio effects) of many large-scale multi-stock fisheries by reducing spawning stock diversity that is vital for generating population stability and resilience. The application of portfolio theory offers a means to guide management activities by quantifying the importance of multi-stock dynamics and suggesting conservation and restoration strategies to improve naturally occurring portfolio effects. Our application of portfolio theory to Lake Erie Sander vitreus (walleye), a large population that is supported by riverine and open-lake reef spawning stocks, has shown that portfolio effects generated by annual inter-stock larval fish production are currently suboptimal when compared to potential buffering capacity. Reduced production from riverine stocks has resulted in a single open-lake reef stock dominating larval production, and in turn, high inter-annual recruitment variability during recent years. Our analyses have shown (1) a weak average correlation between annual river and reef larval production (ρ̄ = 0.24), suggesting that a natural buffering capacity exists in the population, and (2) expanded annual production of larvae (potential recruits) from riverine stocks could stabilize the fishery by dampening inter-annual recruitment variation. Ultimately, our results demonstrate how portfolio theory can be used to quantify the importance of spawning stock diversity and guide management on ecologically relevant scales (i.e., spawning stocks) leading to greater stability and resilience of multi-stock populations and fisheries.

Evaluating the Health Impact of Large-Scale Public Policy Changes: Classical and Novel Approaches

PubMed Central

Basu, Sanjay; Meghani, Ankita; Siddiqi, Arjumand

2018-01-01

Large-scale public policy changes are often recommended to improve public health. Despite varying widely—from tobacco taxes to poverty-relief programs—such policies present a common dilemma to public health researchers: how to evaluate their health effects when randomized controlled trials are not possible. Here, we review the state of knowledge and experience of public health researchers who rigorously evaluate the health consequences of large-scale public policy changes. We organize our discussion by detailing approaches to address three common challenges of conducting policy evaluations: distinguishing a policy effect from time trends in health outcomes or preexisting differences between policy-affected and -unaffected communities (using difference-in-differences approaches); constructing a comparison population when a policy affects a population for whom a well-matched comparator is not immediately available (using propensity score or synthetic control approaches); and addressing unobserved confounders by utilizing quasi-random variations in policy exposure (using regression discontinuity, instrumental variables, or near-far matching approaches). PMID:28384086

Insights into DDT Resistance from the Drosophila melanogaster Genetic Reference Panel.

PubMed

Schmidt, Joshua M; Battlay, Paul; Gledhill-Smith, Rebecca S; Good, Robert T; Lumb, Chris; Fournier-Level, Alexandre; Robin, Charles

2017-11-01

Insecticide resistance is considered a classic model of microevolution, where a strong selective agent is applied to a large natural population, resulting in a change in frequency of alleles that confer resistance. While many insecticide resistance variants have been characterized at the gene level, they are typically single genes of large effect identified in highly resistant pest species. In contrast, multiple variants have been implicated in DDT resistance in Drosophila melanogaster ; however, only the Cyp6g1 locus has previously been shown to be relevant to field populations. Here we use genome-wide association studies (GWAS) to identify DDT-associated polygenes and use selective sweep analyses to assess their adaptive significance. We identify and verify two candidate DDT resistance loci. A largely uncharacterized gene, CG10737 , has a function in muscles that ameliorates the effects of DDT, while a putative detoxifying P450, Cyp6w1 , shows compelling evidence of positive selection. Copyright © 2017 by the Genetics Society of America.

Promoting Physical Activity With Group Pictures. Affiliation-Based Visual Communication for High-Risk Populations.

PubMed

Reifegerste, Doreen; Rossmann, Constanze

2017-02-01

Past research in social and health psychology has shown that affiliation motivation is associated with health behavior, especially for high-risk populations, suggesting that targeting this motivation could be a promising strategy to promote physical activity. However, the effects that affiliation appeals (e.g., pictures depicting companionship during physical activities) and accompanying slogans have on motivating physical activity have been largely unexplored. Hence, our two studies experimentally tested the effects of exposure to affiliation-based pictures for overweight or less active people, as well as the moderating effect of affiliation motivation. The results of these two studies give some indication that group pictures (with or without an accompanying slogan) can be an effective strategy to improve high-risk populations' attitudes, self-efficacy, and intentions to engage in physical activity. Affiliation motivation as a personality trait did not interact with these effects, but was positively associated with attitudes, independent of the group picture effect.

Using DNA metabarcoding for simultaneous inference of common vampire bat diet and population structure.

PubMed

Bohmann, Kristine; Gopalakrishnan, Shyam; Nielsen, Martin; Nielsen, Luisa Dos Santos Bay; Jones, Gareth; Streicker, Daniel G; Gilbert, M Thomas P

2018-04-19

Metabarcoding diet analysis has become a valuable tool in animal ecology; however, co-amplified predator sequences are not generally used for anything other than to validate predator identity. Exemplified by the common vampire bat, we demonstrate the use of metabarcoding to infer predator population structure alongside diet assessments. Growing populations of common vampire bats impact human, livestock and wildlife health in Latin America through transmission of pathogens, such as lethal rabies viruses. Techniques to determine large-scale variation in vampire bat diet and bat population structure would empower locality- and species-specific projections of disease transmission risks. However, previously used methods are not cost-effective and efficient for large-scale applications. Using bloodmeal and faecal samples from common vampire bats from coastal, Andean and Amazonian regions of Peru, we showcase metabarcoding as a scalable tool to assess vampire bat population structure and feeding preferences. Dietary metabarcoding was highly effective, detecting vertebrate prey in 93.2% of the samples. Bats predominantly preyed on domestic animals, but fed on tapirs at one Amazonian site. In addition, we identified arthropods in 9.3% of samples, likely reflecting consumption of ectoparasites. Using the same data, we document mitochondrial geographic population structure in the common vampire bat in Peru. Such simultaneous inference of vampire bat diet and population structure can enable new insights into the interplay between vampire bat ecology and disease transmission risks. Importantly, the methodology can be incorporated into metabarcoding diet studies of other animals to couple information on diet and population structure. © 2018 The Authors. Molecular Ecology Resources Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Inferring Population Size History from Large Samples of Genome-Wide Molecular Data - An Approximate Bayesian Computation Approach

PubMed Central

Boitard, Simon; Rodríguez, Willy; Jay, Flora; Mona, Stefano; Austerlitz, Frédéric

2016-01-01

Inferring the ancestral dynamics of effective population size is a long-standing question in population genetics, which can now be tackled much more accurately thanks to the massive genomic data available in many species. Several promising methods that take advantage of whole-genome sequences have been recently developed in this context. However, they can only be applied to rather small samples, which limits their ability to estimate recent population size history. Besides, they can be very sensitive to sequencing or phasing errors. Here we introduce a new approximate Bayesian computation approach named PopSizeABC that allows estimating the evolution of the effective population size through time, using a large sample of complete genomes. This sample is summarized using the folded allele frequency spectrum and the average zygotic linkage disequilibrium at different bins of physical distance, two classes of statistics that are widely used in population genetics and can be easily computed from unphased and unpolarized SNP data. Our approach provides accurate estimations of past population sizes, from the very first generations before present back to the expected time to the most recent common ancestor of the sample, as shown by simulations under a wide range of demographic scenarios. When applied to samples of 15 or 25 complete genomes in four cattle breeds (Angus, Fleckvieh, Holstein and Jersey), PopSizeABC revealed a series of population declines, related to historical events such as domestication or modern breed creation. We further highlight that our approach is robust to sequencing errors, provided summary statistics are computed from SNPs with common alleles. PMID:26943927

HIV populations are large and accumulate high genetic diversity in a nonlinear fashion.

PubMed

Maldarelli, Frank; Kearney, Mary; Palmer, Sarah; Stephens, Robert; Mican, JoAnn; Polis, Michael A; Davey, Richard T; Kovacs, Joseph; Shao, Wei; Rock-Kress, Diane; Metcalf, Julia A; Rehm, Catherine; Greer, Sarah E; Lucey, Daniel L; Danley, Kristen; Alter, Harvey; Mellors, John W; Coffin, John M

2013-09-01

HIV infection is characterized by rapid and error-prone viral replication resulting in genetically diverse virus populations. The rate of accumulation of diversity and the mechanisms involved are under intense study to provide useful information to understand immune evasion and the development of drug resistance. To characterize the development of viral diversity after infection, we carried out an in-depth analysis of single genome sequences of HIV pro-pol to assess diversity and divergence and to estimate replicating population sizes in a group of treatment-naive HIV-infected individuals sampled at single (n = 22) or multiple, longitudinal (n = 11) time points. Analysis of single genome sequences revealed nonlinear accumulation of sequence diversity during the course of infection. Diversity accumulated in recently infected individuals at rates 30-fold higher than in patients with chronic infection. Accumulation of synonymous changes accounted for most of the diversity during chronic infection. Accumulation of diversity resulted in population shifts, but the rates of change were low relative to estimated replication cycle times, consistent with relatively large population sizes. Analysis of changes in allele frequencies revealed effective population sizes that are substantially higher than previous estimates of approximately 1,000 infectious particles/infected individual. Taken together, these observations indicate that HIV populations are large, diverse, and slow to change in chronic infection and that the emergence of new mutations, including drug resistance mutations, is governed by both selection forces and drift.

Effect of genotyped cows in the reference population on the genomic evaluation of Holstein cattle.

PubMed

Uemoto, Y; Osawa, T; Saburi, J

2017-03-01

This study evaluated the dependence of reliability and prediction bias on the prediction method, the contribution of including animals (bulls or cows), and the genetic relatedness, when including genotyped cows in the progeny-tested bull reference population. We performed genomic evaluation using a Japanese Holstein population, and assessed the accuracy of genomic enhanced breeding value (GEBV) for three production traits and 13 linear conformation traits. A total of 4564 animals for production traits and 4172 animals for conformation traits were genotyped using Illumina BovineSNP50 array. Single- and multi-step methods were compared for predicting GEBV in genotyped bull-only and genotyped bull-cow reference populations. No large differences in realized reliability and regression coefficient were found between the two reference populations; however, a slight difference was found between the two methods for production traits. The accuracy of GEBV determined by single-step method increased slightly when genotyped cows were included in the bull reference population, but decreased slightly by multi-step method. A validation study was used to evaluate the accuracy of GEBV when 800 additional genotyped bulls (POPbull) or cows (POPcow) were included in the base reference population composed of 2000 genotyped bulls. The realized reliabilities of POPbull were higher than those of POPcow for all traits. For the gain of realized reliability over the base reference population, the average ratios of POPbull gain to POPcow gain for production traits and conformation traits were 2.6 and 7.2, respectively, and the ratios depended on heritabilities of the traits. For regression coefficient, no large differences were found between the results for POPbull and POPcow. Another validation study was performed to investigate the effect of genetic relatedness between cows and bulls in the reference and test populations. The effect of genetic relationship among bulls in the reference population was also assessed. The results showed that it is important to account for relatedness among bulls in the reference population. Our studies indicate that the prediction method, the contribution ratio of including animals, and genetic relatedness could affect the prediction accuracy in genomic evaluation of Holstein cattle, when including genotyped cows in the reference population.

Large-scale Individual-based Models of Pandemic Influenza Mitigation Strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kadau, Kai; Germann, Timothy; Longini, Ira; Macken, Catherine

2007-03-01

We have developed a large-scale stochastic simulation model to investigate the spread of a pandemic strain of influenza virus through the U.S. population of 281 million people, to assess the likely effectiveness of various potential intervention strategies including antiviral agents, vaccines, and modified social mobility (including school closure and travel restrictions) [1]. The heterogeneous population structure and mobility is based on available Census and Department of Transportation data where available. Our simulations demonstrate that, in a highly mobile population, restricting travel after an outbreak is detected is likely to delay slightly the time course of the outbreak without impacting the eventual number ill. For large basic reproductive numbers R0, we predict that multiple strategies in combination (involving both social and medical interventions) will be required to achieve a substantial reduction in illness rates. [1] T. C. Germann, K. Kadau, I. M. Longini, and C. A. Macken, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. (USA) 103, 5935-5940 (2006).

Disease management programs for the underserved.

PubMed

Horswell, Ronald; Butler, Michael K; Kaiser, Michael; Moody-Thomas, Sarah; McNabb, Shannon; Besse, Jay; Abrams, Amir

2008-06-01

Disease management has become an important tool for improving population patient outcomes. The Louisiana State University Health Care Services Division (HCSD) has used this tool to provide care to a largely uninsured population for approximately 10 years. Eight programs currently exist within the HCSD focusing on diabetes, asthma, congestive heart failure, HIV, cancer screening, smoking cessation, chronic kidney disease, and diet, exercise, and weight control. These programs operate at hospital and clinic sites located in 8 population centers throughout southern Louisiana. The programs are structured to be managed at the system level with a clinical expert for each area guiding the scope of the program and defining new goals. Care largely adheres to evidence-based guidelines set forth by professional organizations. To monitor quality of care, indicators are defined within each area and benchmarked to achieve the most effective measures in our population. For example, hemoglobin A1c levels have shown improvements with nearly 54% of the population <7.0%. To support these management efforts, HCSD utilizes an electronic data repository that allows physicians to track patient labs and other tests as well as reminders. To ensure appropriate treatment, patients are able to enroll in the Medication Assistance program. This largely improves adherence to medications for those patients unable to afford them otherwise.

Differential Item Functioning for Accommodated Students with Disabilities: Effect of Differences in Proficiency Distributions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Quesen, Sarah

2016-01-01

When studying differential item functioning (DIF) with students with disabilities (SWD) focal groups typically suffer from small sample size, whereas the reference group population is usually large. This makes it possible for a researcher to select a sample from the reference population to be similar to the focal group on the ability scale. Doing…

Northwest Forest Plan—the first 10 years (1994-2003): status and trends of populations and nesting habitat for the marbled murrelet.

Treesearch

Mark H. Huff; Martin G. Raphael; Sherri L. Miller; S. Kim Nelson; Jim Baldwin

2006-01-01

The Northwest Forest Plan (the Plan) is a large-scale ecosystem management plan for federal land in the Pacific Northwest. Marbled murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus) populations and habitat were monitored to evaluate effectiveness of the Plan. The chapters in this volume summarize information on marbled murrelet ecology and present the monitoring...

Impact of parasites on salmon recruitment in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean

PubMed Central

Krkošek, Martin; Revie, Crawford W.; Gargan, Patrick G.; Skilbrei, Ove T.; Finstad, Bengt; Todd, Christopher D.

2013-01-01

Parasites may have large effects on host population dynamics, marine fisheries and conservation, but a clear elucidation of their impact is limited by a lack of ecosystem-scale experimental data. We conducted a meta-analysis of replicated manipulative field experiments concerning the influence of parasitism by crustaceans on the marine survival of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.). The data include 24 trials in which tagged smolts (totalling 283 347 fish; 1996–2008) were released as paired control and parasiticide-treated groups into 10 areas of Ireland and Norway. All experimental fish were infection-free when released into freshwater, and a proportion of each group was recovered as adult recruits returning to coastal waters 1 or more years later. Treatment had a significant positive effect on survival to recruitment, with an overall effect size (odds ratio) of 1.29 that corresponds to an estimated loss of 39 per cent (95% CI: 18–55%) of adult salmon recruitment. The parasitic crustaceans were probably acquired during early marine migration in areas that host large aquaculture populations of domesticated salmon, which elevate local abundances of ectoparasitic copepods—particularly Lepeophtheirus salmonis. These results provide experimental evidence from a large marine ecosystem that parasites can have large impacts on fish recruitment, fisheries and conservation. PMID:23135680

Multi-ethnic genome-wide association study identifies novel locus for type 2 diabetes susceptibility

PubMed Central

Cook, James P; Morris, Andrew P

2016-01-01

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have traditionally been undertaken in homogeneous populations from the same ancestry group. However, with the increasing availability of GWAS in large-scale multi-ethnic cohorts, we have evaluated a framework for detecting association of genetic variants with complex traits, allowing for population structure, and developed a powerful test of heterogeneity in allelic effects between ancestry groups. We have applied the methodology to identify and characterise loci associated with susceptibility to type 2 diabetes (T2D) using GWAS data from the Resource for Genetic Epidemiology on Adult Health and Aging, a large multi-ethnic population-based cohort, created for investigating the genetic and environmental basis of age-related diseases. We identified a novel locus for T2D susceptibility at genome-wide significance (P<5 × 10−8) that maps to TOMM40-APOE, a region previously implicated in lipid metabolism and Alzheimer's disease. We have also confirmed previous reports that single-nucleotide polymorphisms at the TCF7L2 locus demonstrate the greatest extent of heterogeneity in allelic effects between ethnic groups, with the lowest risk observed in populations of East Asian ancestry. PMID:27189021

Multidisciplinary population monitoring when demographic data are sparse: a case study of remote trout populations

PubMed Central

Fraser, Dylan J; Calvert, Anna M; Bernatchez, Louis; Coon, Andrew

2013-01-01

The potential of genetic, genomic, and phenotypic metrics for monitoring population trends may be especially high in isolated regions, where traditional demographic monitoring is logistically difficult and only sporadic sampling is possible. This potential, however, is relatively underexplored empirically. Over eleven years, we assessed several such metrics along with traditional ecological knowledge and catch data in a socioeconomically important trout species occupying a large, remote lake. The data revealed largely stable characteristics in two populations over 2–3 generations, but possible contemporary changes in a third population. These potential shifts were suggested by reduced catch rates, reduced body size, and changes in selection implied at one gene-associated single nucleotide polymorphism. A demographic decline in this population, however, was ambiguously supported, based on the apparent lack of temporal change in effective population size, and corresponding traditional knowledge suggesting little change in catch. We illustrate how the pluralistic approach employed has practicality for setting future monitoring efforts of these populations, by guiding monitoring priorities according to the relative merits of different metrics and availability of resources. Our study also considers some advantages and disadvantages to adopting a pluralistic approach to population monitoring where demographic data are not easily obtained. PMID:24455128

Interplay between cooperation-enhancing mechanisms in evolutionary games with tag-mediated interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hadzibeganovic, Tarik; Stauffer, Dietrich; Han, Xiao-Pu

2018-04-01

Cooperation is fundamental for the long-term survival of biological, social, and technological networks. Previously, mechanisms for the enhancement of cooperation, such as network reciprocity, have largely been studied in isolation and with often inconclusive findings. Here, we present an evolutionary, multiagent-based, and spatially explicit computer model to specifically address the interactive interplay between such mechanisms. We systematically investigate the effects of phenotypic diversity, network structure, and rewards on cooperative behavior emerging in a population of reproducing artificial decision makers playing tag-mediated evolutionary games. Cooperative interactions are rewarded such that both the benefits of recipients and costs of donators are affected by the reward size. The reward size is determined by the number of cooperative acts occurring within a given reward time frame. Our computational experiments reveal that small reward frames promote unconditional cooperation in populations with both low and high diversity, whereas large reward frames lead to cycles of conditional and unconditional strategies at high but not at low diversity. Moreover, an interaction between rewards and spatial structure shows that relative to small reward frames, there is a strong difference between the frequency of conditional cooperators populating rewired versus non-rewired networks when the reward frame is large. Notably, in a less diverse population, the total number of defections is comparable across different network topologies, whereas in more diverse environments defections become more frequent in a regularly structured than in a rewired, small-world network of contacts. Acknowledging the importance of such interaction effects in social dilemmas will have inevitable consequences for the future design of cooperation-enhancing protocols in large-scale, distributed, and decentralized systems such as peer-to-peer networks.

Genotypic diversity effects on the performance of Taraxacum officinale populations increase with time and environmental favorability.

PubMed

Drummond, Emily B M; Vellend, Mark

2012-01-01

Within-population genetic diversity influences many ecological processes, but few studies have examined how environmental conditions may impact these short-term diversity effects. Over four growing seasons, we followed experimental populations of a clonal, ubiquitous weed, Taraxacum officinale, with different numbers of genotypes in relatively favorable fallow field and unfavorable mowed lawn environmental treatments. Population performance (measured as total leaf area, seed production or biomass) clearly and consistently increased with diversity, and this effect became stronger over the course of the experiment. Diversity effects were stronger, and with different underlying mechanisms, in the fallow field versus the mowed lawn. Large genotypes dominated in the fallow field driving overyielding (via positive selection effects), whereas in the mowed lawn, where performance was limited by regular disturbance, there was evidence for complementarity among genotypes (with one compact genotype in particular performing better in mixture than monoculture). Hence, we predict stronger genotypic diversity effects in environments where intense intraspecific competition enhances genotypic differences. Our four-year field experiment plus seedling establishment trials indicate that genotypic diversity effects have far-reaching and context-dependent consequences across generations.

Testing a New Generation: Implementing Clickers as an Extension Data Collection Tool

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Parmer, Sondra M.; Parmer, Greg; Struempler, Barb

2012-01-01

Using clickers to gauge student understanding in large classrooms is well documented. Less well known is the effectiveness of using clickers with youth for test taking in large-scale Extension programs. This article describes the benefits and challenges of collecting evaluation data using clickers with a third-grade population participating in a…

Sleep Time: Media Hype vs. Diary Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Michelson, William

2011-01-01

Sleep duration has figured into claims of two trends promoted recently as dysfunctional in the mass media. One is the observation that the population at large is sleeping less than before. The second is that the annual change from Standard Time to Daylight Savings (or summer) Time causes adverse effects, largely through the loss of an hour's…

Long-range gene flow and the effects of climatic and ecological factors on genetic structuring in a large, solitary carnivore: the Eurasian lynx.

PubMed

Ratkiewicz, Mirosław; Matosiuk, Maciej; Saveljev, Alexander P; Sidorovich, Vadim; Ozolins, Janis; Männil, Peep; Balciauskas, Linas; Kojola, Ilpo; Okarma, Henryk; Kowalczyk, Rafał; Schmidt, Krzysztof

2014-01-01

Due to their high mobility, large terrestrial predators are potentially capable of maintaining high connectivity, and therefore low genetic differentiation among populations. However, previous molecular studies have provided contradictory findings in relation to this. To elucidate patterns of genetic structure in large carnivores, we studied the genetic variability of the Eurasian lynx, Lynx lynx throughout north-eastern Europe using microsatellite, mitochondrial DNA control region and Y chromosome-linked markers. Using SAMOVA we found analogous patterns of genetic structure based on both mtDNA and microsatellites, which coincided with a relatively little evidence for male-biased dispersal. No polymorphism for the cytochrome b and ATP6 mtDNA genes and Y chromosome-linked markers were found. Lynx inhabiting a large area encompassing Finland, the Baltic countries and western Russia formed a single genetic unit, while some marginal populations were clearly divergent from others. The existence of a migration corridor was suggested to correspond with distribution of continuous forest cover. The lowest variability (in both markers) was found in lynx from Norway and Białowieża Primeval Forest (BPF), which coincided with a recent demographic bottleneck (Norway) or high habitat fragmentation (BPF). The Carpathian population, being monomorphic for the control region, showed relatively high microsatellite diversity, suggesting the effect of a past bottleneck (e.g. during Last Glacial Maximum) on its present genetic composition. Genetic structuring for the mtDNA control region was best explained by latitude and snow cover depth. Microsatellite structuring correlated with the lynx's main prey, especially the proportion of red deer (Cervus elaphus) in its diet. Eurasian lynx are capable of maintaining panmictic populations across eastern Europe unless they are severely limited by habitat continuity or a reduction in numbers. Different correlations of mtDNA and microsatellite population divergence patterns with climatic and ecological factors may suggest separate selective pressures acting on males and females in this solitary carnivore.

Low worldwide genetic diversity in the killer whale (Orcinus orca): implications for demographic history.

PubMed Central

Hoelzel, A Rus; Natoli, Ada; Dahlheim, Marilyn E; Olavarria, Carlos; Baird, Robin W; Black, Nancy A

2002-01-01

A low level of genetic variation in mammalian populations where the census population size is relatively large has been attributed to various factors, such as a naturally small effective population size, historical bottlenecks and social behaviour. The killer whale (Orcinus orca) is an abundant, highly social species with reduced genetic variation. We find no consistent geographical pattern of global diversity and no mtDNA variation within some regional populations. The regional lack of variation is likely to be due to the strict matrilineal expansion of local populations. The worldwide pattern and paucity of diversity may indicate a historical bottleneck as an additional factor. PMID:12137576

Genomic selection and association mapping in rice (Oryza sativa): effect of trait genetic architecture, training population composition, marker number and statistical model on accuracy of rice genomic selection in elite, tropical rice breeding lines.

PubMed

Spindel, Jennifer; Begum, Hasina; Akdemir, Deniz; Virk, Parminder; Collard, Bertrand; Redoña, Edilberto; Atlin, Gary; Jannink, Jean-Luc; McCouch, Susan R

2015-02-01

Genomic Selection (GS) is a new breeding method in which genome-wide markers are used to predict the breeding value of individuals in a breeding population. GS has been shown to improve breeding efficiency in dairy cattle and several crop plant species, and here we evaluate for the first time its efficacy for breeding inbred lines of rice. We performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) in conjunction with five-fold GS cross-validation on a population of 363 elite breeding lines from the International Rice Research Institute's (IRRI) irrigated rice breeding program and herein report the GS results. The population was genotyped with 73,147 markers using genotyping-by-sequencing. The training population, statistical method used to build the GS model, number of markers, and trait were varied to determine their effect on prediction accuracy. For all three traits, genomic prediction models outperformed prediction based on pedigree records alone. Prediction accuracies ranged from 0.31 and 0.34 for grain yield and plant height to 0.63 for flowering time. Analyses using subsets of the full marker set suggest that using one marker every 0.2 cM is sufficient for genomic selection in this collection of rice breeding materials. RR-BLUP was the best performing statistical method for grain yield where no large effect QTL were detected by GWAS, while for flowering time, where a single very large effect QTL was detected, the non-GS multiple linear regression method outperformed GS models. For plant height, in which four mid-sized QTL were identified by GWAS, random forest produced the most consistently accurate GS models. Our results suggest that GS, informed by GWAS interpretations of genetic architecture and population structure, could become an effective tool for increasing the efficiency of rice breeding as the costs of genotyping continue to decline.

Genomic Selection and Association Mapping in Rice (Oryza sativa): Effect of Trait Genetic Architecture, Training Population Composition, Marker Number and Statistical Model on Accuracy of Rice Genomic Selection in Elite, Tropical Rice Breeding Lines

PubMed Central

Spindel, Jennifer; Begum, Hasina; Akdemir, Deniz; Virk, Parminder; Collard, Bertrand; Redoña, Edilberto; Atlin, Gary; Jannink, Jean-Luc; McCouch, Susan R.

2015-01-01

Genomic Selection (GS) is a new breeding method in which genome-wide markers are used to predict the breeding value of individuals in a breeding population. GS has been shown to improve breeding efficiency in dairy cattle and several crop plant species, and here we evaluate for the first time its efficacy for breeding inbred lines of rice. We performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) in conjunction with five-fold GS cross-validation on a population of 363 elite breeding lines from the International Rice Research Institute's (IRRI) irrigated rice breeding program and herein report the GS results. The population was genotyped with 73,147 markers using genotyping-by-sequencing. The training population, statistical method used to build the GS model, number of markers, and trait were varied to determine their effect on prediction accuracy. For all three traits, genomic prediction models outperformed prediction based on pedigree records alone. Prediction accuracies ranged from 0.31 and 0.34 for grain yield and plant height to 0.63 for flowering time. Analyses using subsets of the full marker set suggest that using one marker every 0.2 cM is sufficient for genomic selection in this collection of rice breeding materials. RR-BLUP was the best performing statistical method for grain yield where no large effect QTL were detected by GWAS, while for flowering time, where a single very large effect QTL was detected, the non-GS multiple linear regression method outperformed GS models. For plant height, in which four mid-sized QTL were identified by GWAS, random forest produced the most consistently accurate GS models. Our results suggest that GS, informed by GWAS interpretations of genetic architecture and population structure, could become an effective tool for increasing the efficiency of rice breeding as the costs of genotyping continue to decline. PMID:25689273

Finite-time and finite-size scalings in the evaluation of large-deviation functions: Numerical approach in continuous time.

PubMed

Guevara Hidalgo, Esteban; Nemoto, Takahiro; Lecomte, Vivien

2017-06-01

Rare trajectories of stochastic systems are important to understand because of their potential impact. However, their properties are by definition difficult to sample directly. Population dynamics provides a numerical tool allowing their study, by means of simulating a large number of copies of the system, which are subjected to selection rules that favor the rare trajectories of interest. Such algorithms are plagued by finite simulation time and finite population size, effects that can render their use delicate. In this paper, we present a numerical approach which uses the finite-time and finite-size scalings of estimators of the large deviation functions associated to the distribution of rare trajectories. The method we propose allows one to extract the infinite-time and infinite-size limit of these estimators, which-as shown on the contact process-provides a significant improvement of the large deviation function estimators compared to the standard one.

Population dynamics and the ecological stability of obligate pollination mutualisms

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holland, J. Nathaniel; DeAngelis, Donald L.

2001-01-01

Mutualistic interactions almost always produce both costs and benefits for each of the interacting species. It is the difference between gross benefits and costs that determines the net benefit and the per-capita effect on each of the interacting populations. For example, the net benefit of obligate pollinators, such as yucca and senita moths, to plants is determined by the difference between the number of ovules fertilized from moth pollination and the number of ovules eaten by the pollinator's larvae. It is clear that if pollinator populations are large, then, because many eggs are laid, costs to plants are large, whereas, if pollinator populations are small, gross benefits are low due to lack of pollination. Even though the size and dynamics of the pollinator population are likely to be crucial, their importance has been neglected in the investigation of mechanisms, such as selective fruit abortion, that can limit costs and increase net benefits. Here, we suggest that both the population size and dynamics of pollinators are important in determining the net benefits to plants, and that fruit abortion can significantly affect these. We develop a model of mutualism between populations of plants and their pollinating seed-predators to explore the ecological consequences of fruit abortion on pollinator population dynamics and the net effect on plants. We demonstrate that the benefit to a plant population is unimodal as a function of pollinator abundance, relative to the abundance of flowers. Both selective abortion of fruit with eggs and random abortion of fruit, without reference to whether they have eggs or not, can limit pollinator population size. This can increase the net benefits to the plant population by limiting the number of eggs laid, if the pollination rate remains high. However, fruit abortion can possibly destabilize the pollinator population, with negative consequences for the plant population.

EvoSNP-DB: A database of genetic diversity in East Asian populations.

PubMed

Kim, Young Uk; Kim, Young Jin; Lee, Jong-Young; Park, Kiejung

2013-08-01

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have become popular as an approach for the identification of large numbers of phenotype-associated variants. However, differences in genetic architecture and environmental factors mean that the effect of variants can vary across populations. Understanding population genetic diversity is valuable for the investigation of possible population specific and independent effects of variants. EvoSNP-DB aims to provide information regarding genetic diversity among East Asian populations, including Chinese, Japanese, and Korean. Non-redundant SNPs (1.6 million) were genotyped in 54 Korean trios (162 samples) and were compared with 4 million SNPs from HapMap phase II populations. EvoSNP-DB provides two user interfaces for data query and visualization, and integrates scores of genetic diversity (Fst and VarLD) at the level of SNPs, genes, and chromosome regions. EvoSNP-DB is a web-based application that allows users to navigate and visualize measurements of population genetic differences in an interactive manner, and is available online at [http://biomi.cdc.go.kr/EvoSNP/].

Strong fluctuations in aboveground population size do not limit genetic diversity in populations of an endangered biennial species.

PubMed

Münzbergová, Zuzana; Šurinová, Maria; Husáková, Iveta; Brabec, Jiří

2018-04-26

Assessing genetic diversity within populations of rare species and understanding its determinants are crucial for effective species protection. While a lot is known about the relationships between genetic diversity, fitness, and current population size, very few studies explored the effects of past population size. Knowledge of past population size may, however, improve our ability to predict future population fates. We studied Gentianella praecox subsp. bohemica, a biennial species with extensive seed bank. We tested the effect of current, past minimal and maximal population size, and harmonic mean of population sizes within the last 15 years on genetic diversity and fitness. Maximum population size over the last 15 years was the best predictor of expected heterozygosity of the populations and was significantly related to current population size and management. Plant fitness was significantly related to current as well as maximum population size and expected heterozygosity. The results suggested that information on past population size may improve our understanding of contemporary genetic diversity across populations. They demonstrated that despite the strong fluctuations in population size, large reductions in population size do not result in immediate loss of genetic diversity and reduction of fitness within the populations. This is likely due to the seed bank of the species serving as reservoir of the genetic diversity of the populations. From a conservation point of view, this suggests that the restoration of small populations of short-lived species with permanent seed bank is possible as these populations may still be genetically diverse.

Genetic structure of cougar populations across the Wyoming basin: Metapopulation or megapopulation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anderson, C.R.; Lindzey, F.G.; McDonald, D.B.

2004-01-01

We examined the genetic structure of 5 Wyoming cougar (Puma concolor) populations surrounding the Wyoming Basin, as well as a population from southwestern Colorado. When using 9 microsatellite DNA loci, observed heterozygosity was similar among populations (HO = 0.49-0.59) and intermediate to that of other large carnivores. Estimates of genetic structure (FST = 0.028, RST = 0.029) and number of migrants per generation (Nm) suggested high gene flow. Nm was lowest between distant populations and highest among adjacent populations. Examination of these data, plus Mantel test results of genetic versus geographic distance (P ??? 0.01), suggested both isolation by distance and an effect of habitat matrix. Bayesian assignment to population based on individual genotypes showed that cougars in this region were best described as a single panmictic population. Total effective population size for cougars in this region ranged from 1,797 to 4,532 depending on mutation model and analytical method used. Based on measures of gene flow, extinction risk in the near future appears low. We found no support for the existence of metapopulation structure among cougars in this region.

Field cage studies and progressive evaluation of genetically-engineered mosquitoes.

PubMed

Facchinelli, Luca; Valerio, Laura; Ramsey, Janine M; Gould, Fred; Walsh, Rachael K; Bond, Guillermo; Robert, Michael A; Lloyd, Alun L; James, Anthony A; Alphey, Luke; Scott, Thomas W

2013-01-01

A genetically-engineered strain of the dengue mosquito vector Aedes aegypti, designated OX3604C, was evaluated in large outdoor cage trials for its potential to improve dengue prevention efforts by inducing population suppression. OX3604C is engineered with a repressible genetic construct that causes a female-specific flightless phenotype. Wild-type females that mate with homozygous OX3604C males will not produce reproductive female offspring. Weekly introductions of OX3604C males eliminated all three targeted Ae. aegypti populations after 10-20 weeks in a previous laboratory cage experiment. As part of the phased, progressive evaluation of this technology, we carried out an assessment in large outdoor field enclosures in dengue endemic southern Mexico. OX3604C males were introduced weekly into field cages containing stable target populations, initially at 10:1 ratios. Statistically significant target population decreases were detected in 4 of 5 treatment cages after 17 weeks, but none of the treatment populations were eliminated. Mating competitiveness experiments, carried out to explore the discrepancy between lab and field cage results revealed a maximum mating disadvantage of up 59.1% for OX3604C males, which accounted for a significant part of the 97% fitness cost predicted by a mathematical model to be necessary to produce the field cage results. Our results indicate that OX3604C may not be effective in large-scale releases. A strain with the same transgene that is not encumbered by a large mating disadvantage, however, could have improved prospects for dengue prevention. Insights from large outdoor cage experiments may provide an important part of the progressive, stepwise evaluation of genetically-engineered mosquitoes.

Field Cage Studies and Progressive Evaluation of Genetically-Engineered Mosquitoes

PubMed Central

Facchinelli, Luca; Valerio, Laura; Ramsey, Janine M.; Gould, Fred; Walsh, Rachael K.; Bond, Guillermo; Robert, Michael A.; Lloyd, Alun L.; James, Anthony A.; Alphey, Luke; Scott, Thomas W.

2013-01-01

Background A genetically-engineered strain of the dengue mosquito vector Aedes aegypti, designated OX3604C, was evaluated in large outdoor cage trials for its potential to improve dengue prevention efforts by inducing population suppression. OX3604C is engineered with a repressible genetic construct that causes a female-specific flightless phenotype. Wild-type females that mate with homozygous OX3604C males will not produce reproductive female offspring. Weekly introductions of OX3604C males eliminated all three targeted Ae. aegypti populations after 10–20 weeks in a previous laboratory cage experiment. As part of the phased, progressive evaluation of this technology, we carried out an assessment in large outdoor field enclosures in dengue endemic southern Mexico. Methodology/Principal Findings OX3604C males were introduced weekly into field cages containing stable target populations, initially at 10∶1 ratios. Statistically significant target population decreases were detected in 4 of 5 treatment cages after 17 weeks, but none of the treatment populations were eliminated. Mating competitiveness experiments, carried out to explore the discrepancy between lab and field cage results revealed a maximum mating disadvantage of up 59.1% for OX3604C males, which accounted for a significant part of the 97% fitness cost predicted by a mathematical model to be necessary to produce the field cage results. Conclusions/Significance Our results indicate that OX3604C may not be effective in large-scale releases. A strain with the same transgene that is not encumbered by a large mating disadvantage, however, could have improved prospects for dengue prevention. Insights from large outdoor cage experiments may provide an important part of the progressive, stepwise evaluation of genetically-engineered mosquitoes. PMID:23350003

Mitochondrial Variation among the Aymara and the Signatures of Population Expansion in the Central Andes

PubMed Central

BATAI, KEN; WILLIAMS, SLOAN R.

2015-01-01

Objectives The exploitation of marine resources and intensive agriculture led to a marked population increase early in central Andean prehistory. Constant historic and prehistoric population movements also characterize this region. These features undoubtedly affected regional genetic variation, but the exact nature of these effects remains uncertain. Methods Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) hypervariable region I sequence variation in 61 Aymara individuals from La Paz, Bolivia, was analyzed and compared to sequences from 47 other South American populations to test hypotheses of whether increased female effective population size and gene flow influenced the mtDNA variation among central Andean populations. Results The Aymara and Quechua were genetically diverse showing evidence of population expansion and large effective population size, and a demographic expansion model fits the mtDNA variation found among central Andean populations well. Estimated migration rates and the results of AMOVA and multidimensional scaling analysis suggest that female gene flow was also an important factor, influencing genetic variation among the central Andeans as well as lowland populations from western South America. mtDNA variation in south central Andes correlated better with geographic proximity than with language, and fit a population continuity model. Conclusion The mtDNA data suggests that the central Andeans experienced population expansion, most likely because of rapid demographic expansion after introduction of intensive agriculture, but roles of female gene flow need to be further explored. PMID:24449040

Both population size and patch quality affect local extinctions and colonizations.

PubMed

Franzén, Markus; Nilsson, Sven G

2010-01-07

Currently, the habitat of many species is fragmented, resulting in small local populations with individuals occasionally dispersing between the remaining habitat patches. In a solitary bee metapopulation, extinction probability was related to both local bee population sizes and pollen resources measured as host plant population size. Patch size, on the other hand, had no additional predictive power. The turnover rate of local bee populations in 63 habitat patches over 4 years was high, with 72 extinction events and 31 colonization events, but the pollen plant population was stable with no extinctions or colonizations. Both pollen resources and bee populations had strong and independent effects on extinction probability, but connectivity was not of importance. Colonizations occurred more frequently within larger host plant populations. For metapopulation survival of the bee, large pollen plant populations are essential, independent of current bee population size.

Older fathers' children have lower evolutionary fitness across four centuries and in four populations

PubMed Central

Willführ, Kai P.; Frans, Emma M.; Verweij, Karin J. H.; Bürkner, Paul-Christian; Myrskylä, Mikko; Voland, Eckart; Zietsch, Brendan P.; Penke, Lars

2017-01-01

Higher paternal age at offspring conception increases de novo genetic mutations. Based on evolutionary genetic theory we predicted older fathers' children, all else equal, would be less likely to survive and reproduce, i.e. have lower fitness. In sibling control studies, we find support for negative paternal age effects on offspring survival and reproductive success across four large populations with an aggregate N > 1.4 million. Three populations were pre-industrial (1670–1850) Western populations and showed negative paternal age effects on infant survival and offspring reproductive success. In twentieth-century Sweden, we found minuscule paternal age effects on survival, but found negative effects on reproductive success. Effects survived tests for key competing explanations, including maternal age and parental loss, but effects varied widely over different plausible model specifications and some competing explanations such as diminishing paternal investment and epigenetic mutations could not be tested. We can use our findings to aid in predicting the effect increasingly older parents in today's society will have on their children's survival and reproductive success. To the extent that we succeeded in isolating a mutation-driven effect of paternal age, our results can be understood to show that de novo mutations reduce offspring fitness across populations and time periods. PMID:28904145

Local interactions lead to pathogen-driven change to host population dynamics.

PubMed

Boots, Michael; Childs, Dylan; Reuman, Daniel C; Mealor, Michael

2009-10-13

Individuals tend to interact more strongly with nearby individuals or within particular social groups. Recent theoretical advances have demonstrated that these within-population relationships can have fundamental implications for ecological and evolutionary dynamics. In particular, contact networks are crucial to the spread and evolution of disease. However, the theory remains largely untested experimentally. Here, we manipulate habitat viscosity and thereby the frequency of local interactions in an insect-pathogen model system in which the virus had previously been shown to have little effect on host population dynamics. At high viscosity, the pathogen caused the collapse of dominant and otherwise stable host generation cycles. Modeling shows that this collapse can be explained by an increase in the frequency of intracohort interactions relative to intercohort interactions, leading to more disease transmission. Our work emphasizes that spatial structure can subtly mediate intraspecific competition and the effects of natural enemies. A decrease in dispersal in a population may actually (sometimes rather counterintuitively) intensify the effects of parasites. Broadly, because anthropological and environmental change often cause changes in population mixing, our work highlights the potential for dramatic changes in the effects of parasites on host populations.

Effective number of breeding adults in Bufo bufo estimated from age-specific variation at minisatellite loci

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scribner, K.T.; Arntzen, J.W.; Burke, T.

1997-01-01

Estimates of the effective number of breeding adults were derived for three semi-isolated populations of the common toad Bufo bufo based on temporal (i.e. adult-progeny) variance in allele frequency for three highly polymorphic minisatellite loci. Estimates of spatial variance in allele frequency among populations and of age-specific measures of genetic variability are also described. Each population was characterized by a low effective adult breeding number (N(b)) based on a large age-specific variance in minisatellite allele frequency. Estimates of N(b) (range 21-46 for population means across three loci) were ??? 55-230-fold lower than estimates of total adult census size. The implications of low effective breeding numbers for long-term maintenance of genetic variability and population viability are discussed relative to the species' reproductive ecology, current land-use practices, and present and historical habitat modification and loss. The utility of indirect measures of population parameters such as N(b) and N(e) based on time-series data of minisatellite allele frequencies is discussed relative to similar measures estimated from commonly used genetic markers such as protein allozymes.

A study of the health and economic effects of influenza-like illness on the working population under different working environments of a large corporation in Hong Kong.

PubMed

Lee, Kenneth K C; Li, Shu Chuen; Kwong, Kai Sun; Chan, Thomas Y K; Lee, Vivian W Y; Lau, Joseph T F

2008-01-01

The incidence, health and economic impacts of influenza-like illness (ILI) among the working population in Hong Kong had never been studied. Due to the nature of the disease, ILIs can have a significant impact on the operation of a corporation in terms of loss of productivity and reduced work performance. The present study was undertaken to determine the health and economic impacts of ILIs under different environmental conditions on the working population of a large corporation. Over 2,000 employees of a large corporation in the travelling and tourism industry were studied with three different types of working environment (confined, typical office and well ventilated) by two structured questionnaires. The most affected group in terms of productivity and health was the group working in a confined area, whilst those working in a well-ventilated area were least affected. However, symptoms of the confined area group seemed to disappear faster. The infection rate appeared to vary according to work environment for the studied population. Policies on preventive measures and early treatment are important for a corporation to reduce loss in productivity due to ILIs.

Changes of population trends and mortality patterns in response to the reintroduction of large predators: The case study of African ungulates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grange, Sophie; Owen-Smith, Norman; Gaillard, Jean-Michel; Druce, Dave J.; Moleón, Marcos; Mgobozi, Mandisa

2012-07-01

Large predators have been reintroduced to an increasing number of protected areas in South Africa. However, the conditions allowing both prey and predator populations to be sustained in enclosed areas are still unclear as there is a lack of understanding of the consequences of such reintroductions for ungulate population dynamics. Variation in lion numbers, two decades after their first release, offered a special opportunity to test the effects of predation pressure on the population dynamics of seven ungulate species in the 960 km2 Hluhluwe-iMfolozi Park (HiP), South Africa. We used two different approaches to examine predator-prey relationships: the population response of ungulates to predation pressure after accounting for possible confounding factors, and the pattern of ungulate adult mortality observed from carcass records. Rainfall patterns affected observed mortalities of several ungulate species in HiP. Although lion predation accounted for most ungulate mortality, it still had no detectable influence on ungulate population trends and mortality patterns, with one possible exception. This evidence suggests that the lion population had not yet attained the maximum abundance potentially supported by their ungulate prey; but following recent increases in lion numbers it will probably occur soon. It remains uncertain whether a quasi-stable balance will be reached between prey and predator populations, or whether favoured prey species will be depressed towards levels potentially generating oscillatory dynamics in this complex large mammal assemblage. We specifically recommend a continuous monitoring of predator and prey populations in HiP since lions are likely to show more impacts on their prey species in the next years.

Men, women…who cares? A population-based study on sex differences and gender roles in empathy and moral cognition.

PubMed

Baez, Sandra; Flichtentrei, Daniel; Prats, María; Mastandueno, Ricardo; García, Adolfo M; Cetkovich, Marcelo; Ibáñez, Agustín

2017-01-01

Research on sex differences in empathy has revealed mixed findings. Whereas experimental and neuropsychological measures show no consistent sex effect, self-report data consistently indicates greater empathy in women. However, available results mainly come from separate populations with relatively small samples, which may inflate effect sizes and hinder comparability between both empirical corpora. To elucidate the issue, we conducted two large-scale studies. First, we examined whether sex differences emerge in a large population-based sample (n = 10,802) when empathy is measured with an experimental empathy-for-pain paradigm. Moreover, we investigated the relationship between empathy and moral judgment. In the second study, a subsample (n = 334) completed a self-report empathy questionnaire. Results showed some sex differences in the experimental paradigm, but with minuscule effect sizes. Conversely, women did portray themselves as more empathic through self-reports. In addition, utilitarian responses to moral dilemmas were less frequent in women, although these differences also had small effect sizes. These findings suggest that sex differences in empathy are highly driven by the assessment measure. In particular, self-reports may induce biases leading individuals to assume gender-role stereotypes. Awareness of the role of measurement instruments in this field may hone our understanding of the links between empathy, sex differences, and gender roles.

Diet quality in a wild grazer declines under the threat of an ambush predator

PubMed Central

Barnier, Florian; Valeix, Marion; Duncan, Patrick; Chamaillé-Jammes, Simon; Barre, Philippe; Loveridge, Andrew J.; Macdonald, David W.; Fritz, Hervé

2014-01-01

Predators influence prey populations not only through predation itself, but also indirectly through prompting changes in prey behaviour. The behavioural adjustments of prey to predation risk may carry nutritional costs, but this has seldom been studied in the wild in large mammals. Here, we studied the effects of an ambush predator, the African lion (Panthera leo), on the diet quality of plains zebras (Equus quagga) in Hwange National Park, Zimbabwe. We combined information on movements of both prey and predators, using GPS data, and measurements of faecal crude protein, an index of diet quality in the prey. Zebras which had been in close proximity to lions had a lower quality diet, showing that adjustments in behaviour when lions are within short distance carry nutritional costs. The ultimate fitness cost will depend on the frequency of predator–prey encounters and on whether bottom-up or top-down forces are more important in the prey population. Our finding is the first attempt to our knowledge to assess nutritionally mediated risk effects in a large mammalian prey species under the threat of an ambush predator, and brings support to the hypothesis that the behavioural effects of predation induce important risk effects on prey populations. PMID:24789903

The genetic architecture of local adaptation and reproductive isolation in sympatry within the Mimulus guttatus species complex.

PubMed

Ferris, Kathleen G; Barnett, Laryssa L; Blackman, Benjamin K; Willis, John H

2017-01-01

The genetic architecture of local adaptation has been of central interest to evolutionary biologists since the modern synthesis. In addition to classic theory on the effect size of adaptive mutations by Fisher, Kimura and Orr, recent theory addresses the genetic architecture of local adaptation in the face of ongoing gene flow. This theory predicts that with substantial gene flow between populations local adaptation should proceed primarily through mutations of large effect or tightly linked clusters of smaller effect loci. In this study, we investigate the genetic architecture of divergence in flowering time, mating system-related traits, and leaf shape between Mimulus laciniatus and a sympatric population of its close relative M. guttatus. These three traits are probably involved in M. laciniatus' adaptation to a dry, exposed granite outcrop environment. Flowering time and mating system differences are also reproductive isolating barriers making them 'magic traits'. Phenotypic hybrids in this population provide evidence of recent gene flow. Using next-generation sequencing, we generate dense SNP markers across the genome and map quantitative trait loci (QTLs) involved in flowering time, flower size and leaf shape. We find that interspecific divergence in all three traits is due to few QTL of large effect including a highly pleiotropic QTL on chromosome 8. This QTL region contains the pleiotropic candidate gene TCP4 and is involved in ecologically important phenotypes in other Mimulus species. Our results are consistent with theory, indicating that local adaptation and reproductive isolation with gene flow should be due to few loci with large and pleiotropic effects. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Atrial Fibrillation in Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy: Prevalence, Clinical Correlations, and Mortality in a Large High‐Risk Population

PubMed Central

Siontis, Konstantinos C.; Geske, Jeffrey B.; Ong, Kevin; Nishimura, Rick A.; Ommen, Steve R.; Gersh, Bernard J.

2014-01-01

Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common sequela of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM), but evidence on its prevalence, risk factors, and effect on mortality is sparse. We sought to evaluate the prevalence of AF, identify clinical and echocardiographic correlates, and assess its effect on mortality in a large high‐risk HCM population. Methods and Results We identified HCM patients who underwent evaluation at our institution from 1975 to 2012. AF was defined by known history (either chronic or paroxysmal), electrocardiogram, or Holter monitoring at index visit. We examined clinical and echocardiographic variables in association with AF. The effect of AF on overall and cause‐specific mortality was evaluated with multivariate Cox proportional hazards models. Of 3673 patients with HCM, 650 (18%) had AF. Patients with AF were older and more symptomatic (P<0.001). AF was less common among patients with obstructive HCM phenotype and was associated with larger left atria, higher E/e’ ratios, and worse cardiopulmonary exercise tolerance (all P values<0.001). During median (interquartile range) follow‐up of 4.1 (0.2 to 10) years, 1069 (29%) patients died. Patients with AF had worse survival compared to those without AF (P<0.001). In multivariate analysis adjusted for established risk factors of mortality in HCM, the hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) for the effect of AF on overall mortality was 1.48 (1.27 to 1.71). AF did not have an effect on sudden or nonsudden cardiac death. Conclusions In this large referral HCM population, approximately 1 in 5 patients had AF. AF was a strong predictor of mortality, even after adjustment for established risk factors. PMID:24965028

Micro-bias and macro-performance.

PubMed

Seaver, S M D; Moreira, A A; Sales-Pardo, M; Malmgren, R D; Diermeier, D; Amaral, L A N

2009-02-01

We use agent-based modeling to investigate the effect of conservatism and partisanship on the efficiency with which large populations solve the density classification task - a paradigmatic problem for information aggregation and consensus building. We find that conservative agents enhance the populations' ability to efficiently solve the density classification task despite large levels of noise in the system. In contrast, we find that the presence of even a small fraction of partisans holding the minority position will result in deadlock or a consensus on an incorrect answer. Our results provide a possible explanation for the emergence of conservatism and suggest that even low levels of partisanship can lead to significant social costs.

Efficiency of multi-breed genomic selection for dairy cattle breeds with different sizes of reference population.

PubMed

Hozé, C; Fritz, S; Phocas, F; Boichard, D; Ducrocq, V; Croiseau, P

2014-01-01

Single-breed genomic selection (GS) based on medium single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) density (~50,000; 50K) is now routinely implemented in several large cattle breeds. However, building large enough reference populations remains a challenge for many medium or small breeds. The high-density BovineHD BeadChip (HD chip; Illumina Inc., San Diego, CA) containing 777,609 SNP developed in 2010 is characterized by short-distance linkage disequilibrium expected to be maintained across breeds. Therefore, combining reference populations can be envisioned. A population of 1,869 influential ancestors from 3 dairy breeds (Holstein, Montbéliarde, and Normande) was genotyped with the HD chip. Using this sample, 50K genotypes were imputed within breed to high-density genotypes, leading to a large HD reference population. This population was used to develop a multi-breed genomic evaluation. The goal of this paper was to investigate the gain of multi-breed genomic evaluation for a small breed. The advantage of using a large breed (Normande in the present study) to mimic a small breed is the large potential validation population to compare alternative genomic selection approaches more reliably. In the Normande breed, 3 training sets were defined with 1,597, 404, and 198 bulls, and a unique validation set included the 394 youngest bulls. For each training set, estimated breeding values (EBV) were computed using pedigree-based BLUP, single-breed BayesC, or multi-breed BayesC for which the reference population was formed by any of the Normande training data sets and 4,989 Holstein and 1,788 Montbéliarde bulls. Phenotypes were standardized by within-breed genetic standard deviation, the proportion of polygenic variance was set to 30%, and the estimated number of SNP with a nonzero effect was about 7,000. The 2 genomic selection (GS) approaches were performed using either the 50K or HD genotypes. The correlations between EBV and observed daughter yield deviations (DYD) were computed for 6 traits and using the different prediction approaches. Compared with pedigree-based BLUP, the average gain in accuracy with GS in small populations was 0.057 for the single-breed and 0.086 for multi-breed approach. This gain was up to 0.193 and 0.209, respectively, with the large reference population. Improvement of EBV prediction due to the multi-breed evaluation was higher for animals not closely related to the reference population. In the case of a breed with a small reference population size, the increase in correlation due to multi-breed GS was 0.141 for bulls without their sire in reference population compared with 0.016 for bulls with their sire in reference population. These results demonstrate that multi-breed GS can contribute to increase genomic evaluation accuracy in small breeds. Copyright © 2014 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Greater sage-grouse population trends across Wyoming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Edmunds, David; Aldridge, Cameron L.; O'Donnell, Michael; Monroe, Adrian

2018-01-01

The scale at which analyses are performed can have an effect on model results and often one scale does not accurately describe the ecological phenomena of interest (e.g., population trends) for wide-ranging species: yet, most ecological studies are performed at a single, arbitrary scale. To best determine local and regional trends for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Wyoming, USA, we modeled density-independent and -dependent population growth across multiple spatial scales relevant to management and conservation (Core Areas [habitat encompassing approximately 83% of the sage-grouse population on ∼24% of surface area in Wyoming], local Working Groups [7 regional areas for which groups of local experts are tasked with implementing Wyoming's statewide sage-grouse conservation plan at the local level], Core Area status (Core Area vs. Non-Core Area) by Working Groups, and Core Areas by Working Groups). Our goal was to determine the influence of fine-scale population trends (Core Areas) on larger-scale populations (Working Group Areas). We modeled the natural log of change in population size ( peak M lek counts) by time to calculate the finite rate of population growth (λ) for each population of interest from 1993 to 2015. We found that in general when Core Area status (Core Area vs. Non-Core Area) was investigated by Working Group Area, the 2 populations trended similarly and agreed with the overall trend of the Working Group Area. However, at the finer scale where Core Areas were analyzed separately, Core Areas within the same Working Group Area often trended differently and a few large Core Areas could influence the overall Working Group Area trend and mask trends occurring in smaller Core Areas. Relatively close fine-scale populations of sage-grouse can trend differently, indicating that large-scale trends may not accurately depict what is occurring across the landscape (e.g., local effects of gas and oil fields may be masked by increasing larger populations). 

Health Insurance Coverage and Its Impact on Medical Cost: Observations from the Floating Population in China

PubMed Central

Zhao, Yinjun; Kang, Bowei; Liu, Yawen; Li, Yichong; Shi, Guoqing; Shen, Tao; Jiang, Yong; Zhang, Mei; Zhou, Maigeng; Wang, Limin

2014-01-01

Background China has the world's largest floating (migrant) population, which has characteristics largely different from the rest of the population. Our goal is to study health insurance coverage and its impact on medical cost for this population. Methods A telephone survey was conducted in 2012. 644 subjects were surveyed. Univariate and multivariate analysis were conducted on insurance coverage and medical cost. Results 82.2% of the surveyed subjects were covered by basic insurance at hometowns with hukou or at residences. Subjects' characteristics including age, education, occupation, and presence of chronic diseases were associated with insurance coverage. After controlling for confounders, insurance coverage was not significantly associated with gross or out-of-pocket medical cost. Conclusion For the floating population, health insurance coverage needs to be improved. Policy interventions are needed so that health insurance can have a more effective protective effect on cost. PMID:25386914

Effects of urban sprawl on obesity.

PubMed

Zhao, Zhenxiang; Kaestner, Robert

2010-12-01

In this paper, we examine the effect of changes in population density-urban sprawl-between 1970 and 2000 on BMI and obesity of residents in metropolitan areas in the U.S. We address the possible endogeneity of population density by using a two-step instrumental variables approach. We exploit the plausibly exogenous variation in population density caused by the expansion of the U.S. Interstate Highway System, which largely followed the original 1947 plan for the Interstate Highway System. We find a negative association between population density and obesity, and estimates are robust across a wide range of specifications. Estimates indicate that if the average metropolitan area had not experienced the decline in the proportion of population living in dense areas over the last 30 years, the rate of obesity would have been reduced by approximately 13%. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Selection in action: dissecting the molecular underpinnings of the increasing muscle mass of Belgian Blue Cattle.

PubMed

Druet, Tom; Ahariz, Naima; Cambisano, Nadine; Tamma, Nico; Michaux, Charles; Coppieters, Wouter; Charlier, Carole; Georges, Michel

2014-09-17

Belgian Blue cattle are famous for their exceptional muscular development or "double-muscling". This defining feature emerged following the fixation of a loss-of-function variant in the myostatin gene in the eighties. Since then, sustained selection has further increased muscle mass of Belgian Blue animals to a comparable extent. In the present paper, we study the genetic determinants of this second wave of muscle growth. A scan for selective sweeps did not reveal the recent fixation of another allele with major effect on muscularity. However, a genome-wide association study identified two genome-wide significant and three suggestive quantitative trait loci (QTL) affecting specific muscle groups and jointly explaining 8-21% of the heritability. The top two QTL are caused by presumably recent mutations on unique haplotypes that have rapidly risen in frequency in the population. While one appears on its way to fixation, the ascent of the other is compromised as the likely underlying MRC2 mutation causes crooked tail syndrome in homozygotes. Genomic prediction models indicate that the residual additive variance is largely polygenic. Contrary to complex traits in humans which have a near-exclusive polygenic architecture, muscle mass in beef cattle (as other production traits under directional selection), appears to be controlled by (i) a handful of recent mutations with large effect that rapidly sweep through the population, and (ii) a large number of presumably older variants with very small effects that rise slowly in the population (polygenic adaptation).

A Test of the Theory of Planned Behavior to Predict Physical Activity in an Overweight/Obese Population Sample of Adolescents from Alberta, Canada

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Plotnikoff, Ronald C.; Lubans, David R.; Costigan, Sarah A.; McCargar, Linda

2013-01-01

Purpose: To examine the utility of the theory of planned behavior (TPB) for explaining physical activity (PA) intention and behavior among a large population sample of overweight and obese adolescents (Alberta, Canada), using a web-based survey. Secondary objectives were to examine the mediating effects of the TPB constructs and moderating effects…

Extent of height variability explained by known height-associated genetic variants in an isolated population of the Adriatic coast of Croatia.

PubMed

Zhang, Ge; Karns, Rebekah; Sun, Guangyun; Indugula, Subba Rao; Cheng, Hong; Havas-Augustin, Dubravka; Novokmet, Natalija; Rudan, Dusko; Durakovic, Zijad; Missoni, Sasa; Chakraborty, Ranajit; Rudan, Pavao; Deka, Ranjan

2011-01-01

Human height is a classical example of a polygenic quantitative trait. Recent large-scale genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified more than 200 height-associated loci, though these variants explain only 2∼10% of overall variability of normal height. The objective of this study was to investigate the variance explained by these loci in a relatively isolated population of European descent with limited admixture and homogeneous genetic background from the Adriatic coast of Croatia. In a sample of 1304 individuals from the island population of Hvar, Croatia, we performed genome-wide SNP typing and assessed the variance explained by genetic scores constructed from different panels of height-associated SNPs extracted from five published studies. The combined information of the 180 SNPs reported by Lango Allen el al. explained 7.94% of phenotypic variation in our sample. Genetic scores based on 20~50 SNPs reported by the remaining individual GWA studies explained 3~5% of height variance. These percentages of variance explained were within ranges comparable to the original studies and heterogeneity tests did not detect significant differences in effect size estimates between our study and the original reports, if the estimates were obtained from populations of European descent. We have evaluated the portability of height-associated loci and the overall fitting of estimated effect sizes reported in large cohorts to an isolated population. We found proportions of explained height variability were comparable to multiple reference GWAS in cohorts of European descent. These results indicate similar genetic architecture and comparable effect sizes of height loci among populations of European descent. © 2011 Zhang et al.

Population density determines the direction of the association between ambient ultraviolet radiation and type 1 diabetes incidence.

PubMed

Elliott, Jane C; Lucas, Robyn M; Clements, Mark S; Bambrick, Hilary J

2010-09-01

Type 1 diabetes incidence has increased rapidly over the last 20 years, and ecological studies show inverse latitudinal gradients for both incidence and prevalence. Some studies have found season of birth or season of diagnosis effects. Together these findings suggest an important role for environmental factors in disease etiology. To examine whether type 1 diabetes incidence varies in relation to ambient ultraviolet radiation (UVR) in Australian children. We used case records of 4773 children aged 0-14 yr from the Australian National Diabetes Register to estimate type 1 diabetes incidence in relation to residential ambient UVR, both as a continuous variable and in four categories. We examined season of birth and season of diagnosis and variation in these parameters and in age at diagnosis, in relation to ambient UVR. Overall incidence was 20 per 100 000 population with no sex difference. There was a statistically significant trend toward winter diagnosis (adjusted RR = 1.22, 95% CI 1.13-1.33, p<0.001) but no apparent season of birth effect. Incidence in the highest UVR category was significantly lower than in the lowest UVR category (RR = 0.85, 95% CI 0.75-0.96). We found an inverse association between incidence and ambient UVR that was present only at low population densities; at high population densities type 1 diabetes incidence increased with increasing ambient UVR. In low population density, largely rural environments, ambient UVR may better reflect the personal UV dose, with the latter being protective for the development of type 1 diabetes. This effect is lost or reversed in high population density, largely urban, environments.

Lyme disease and conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ginsberg, H.

1994-01-01

Lyme disease is a tick-borne illness that is wide-spread in North America, especially in the northeastern and northcentral United States. This disease could negatively influence efforts to conserve natural populations in two ways: (1) the disease could directly affect wild animal health; and (2) tick control efforts could adversely affect natural populations and communities. Lyme disease affects several domestic animals, but symptoms have been reported in only a few wild species. Direct effects of Lyme disease on wild animal populations have not been reported, but the disease should be considered as a possible cause in cases of unexplained population declines in endemic areas. Methods available to manage ticks and Lyme disease include human self-protection techniques, manipulation of habitats and hosts species populations, biological control, and pesticide applications. The diversity of available techniques allows selection of approaches to minimize environmental effects by (1) emphasizing personal protection techniques, (2) carefully targeting management efforts to maximize efficiency, and (3) integrating environmentally benign techniques to improve management while avoiding broad-scale environmentally destructive approaches. The environmental effects of Lyme disease depend, to a large extent, on the methods chosen to minimize human exposure to infected ticks. Conservation biologists can help design tick management programs that effectively lower the incidence of human Lyme disease while simultaneously minimizing negative effects on natural populations.

Nutrition in humanitarian crises.

PubMed

Bagchi, K; Musani, A; Tomeh, L; Taha, A

2004-11-01

It is anticipated that humanitarian crisis situations will continue to occur in countries of the Eastern Mediterranean Region affecting large segments of vulnerable populations. Subsequently the magnitude and effectiveness of the humanitarian response, particularly for food and nutrition, must be based on best practices and sound information of affected populations. To bridge the burgeoning gap between the food and nutrition needs of affected populations and the available resources, four key areas need to be addressed by the humanitarian agencies: adequate knowledge and skills in public health nutrition; effective coordination between humanitarian organizations when conducting nutritional assessments and interventions; efficient and appropriate delivery of services; communication, awareness and advocacy. This paper discusses approaches to how these may be improved.

Stochastic recruitment leads to symmetry breaking in foraging populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biancalani, Tommaso; Dyson, Louise; McKane, Alan

2014-03-01

When an ant colony is faced with two identical equidistant food sources, the foraging ants are found to concentrate more on one source than the other. Analogous symmetry-breaking behaviours have been reported in various population systems, (such as queueing or stock market trading) suggesting the existence of a simple universal mechanism. Past studies have neglected the effect of demographic noise and required rather complicated models to qualitatively reproduce this behaviour. I will show how including the effects of demographic noise leads to a radically different conclusion. The symmetry-breaking arises solely due to the process of recruitment and ceases to occur for large population sizes. The latter fact provides a testable prediction for a real system.

Density-Dependent Effects on Group Size Are Sex-Specific in a Gregarious Ungulate

PubMed Central

Vander Wal, Eric; van Beest, Floris M.; Brook, Ryan K.

2013-01-01

Density dependence can have marked effects on social behaviors such as group size. We tested whether changes in population density of a large herbivore (elk, Cervus canadensis) affected sex-specific group size and whether the response was density- or frequency-dependent. We quantified the probability and strength of changes in group sizes and dispersion as population density changed for each sex. We used group size data from a population of elk in Manitoba, Canada, that was experimentally reduced from 1.20 to 0.67 elk/km2 between 2002 and 2009. Our results indicated that functional responses of group size to population density are sex-specific. Females showed a positive density-dependent response in group size at population densities ≥0.70 elk/km2 and we found evidence for a minimum group size at population density ≤0.70 elk/km2. Changes in male group size were also density-dependent; however, the strength of the relationship was lower than for females. Density dependence in male group size was predominantly a result of fusion of solitary males into larger groups, rather than fusion among existing groups. Our study revealed that density affects group size of a large herbivore differently between males and females, which has important implications for the benefits e.g., alleviating predation risk, and costs of social behaviors e.g., competition for resources and mates, and intra-specific pathogen transmission. PMID:23326502

Fear of large carnivores causes a trophic cascade

PubMed Central

Suraci, Justin P.; Clinchy, Michael; Dill, Lawrence M.; Roberts, Devin; Zanette, Liana Y.

2016-01-01

The fear large carnivores inspire, independent of their direct killing of prey, may itself cause cascading effects down food webs potentially critical for conserving ecosystem function, particularly by affecting large herbivores and mesocarnivores. However, the evidence of this has been repeatedly challenged because it remains experimentally untested. Here we show that experimentally manipulating fear itself in free-living mesocarnivore (raccoon) populations using month-long playbacks of large carnivore vocalizations caused just such cascading effects, reducing mesocarnivore foraging to the benefit of the mesocarnivore's prey, which in turn affected a competitor and prey of the mesocarnivore's prey. We further report that by experimentally restoring the fear of large carnivores in our study system, where most large carnivores have been extirpated, we succeeded in reversing this mesocarnivore's impacts. We suggest that our results reinforce the need to conserve large carnivores given the significant “ecosystem service” the fear of them provides. PMID:26906881

Understanding Protein Synthesis: A Role-Play Approach in Large Undergraduate Human Anatomy and Physiology Classes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sturges, Diana; Maurer, Trent W.; Cole, Oladipo

2009-01-01

This study investigated the effectiveness of role play in a large undergraduate science class. The targeted population consisted of 298 students enrolled in 2 sections of an undergraduate Human Anatomy and Physiology course taught by the same instructor. The section engaged in the role-play activity served as the study group, whereas the section…

Determinants of Police Strength in Large U.S. Cities during the 1990s: A Fixed-Effects Panel Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McCarty, William P.; Ren, Ling; Zhao, Jihong

2012-01-01

The 1990s represented a unique decade in which to analyze the determinants of police strength in the United States. This decade was a time in which crime initially increased, then substantially decreased. Furthermore, this decade also was characterized by increases in the minority population throughout large American cities. Finally, the 1990s…

Effects of Active Learning Classrooms on Student Learning: A Two-Year Empirical Investigation on Student Perceptions and Academic Performance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chiu, Pit Ho Patrio; Cheng, Shuk Han

2017-01-01

Recent studies on active learning classrooms (ACLs) have demonstrated their positive influence on student learning. However, most of the research evidence is derived from a few subject-specific courses or limited student enrolment. Empirical studies on this topic involving large student populations are rare. The present work involved a large-scale…

Fitness effects of advantageous mutations in evolving Escherichia coli populations

PubMed Central

Imhof, Marianne; Schlötterer, Christian

2001-01-01

The central role of beneficial mutations for adaptive processes in natural populations is well established. Thus, there has been a long-standing interest to study the nature of beneficial mutations. Their low frequency, however, has made this class of mutations almost inaccessible for systematic studies. In the absence of experimental data, the distribution of the fitness effects of beneficial mutations was assumed to resemble that of deleterious mutations. For an experimental proof of this assumption, we used a novel marker system to trace adaptive events in an evolving Escherichia coli culture and to determine the selective advantage of those beneficial mutations. Ten parallel cultures were propagated for about 1,000 generations by serial transfer, and 66 adaptive events were identified. From this data set, we estimate the rate of beneficial mutations to be 4 × 10−9 per cell and generation. Consistent with an exponential distribution of the fitness effects, we observed a large fraction of advantageous mutations with a small effect and only few with large effect. The mean selection coefficient of advantageous mutations in our experiment was 0.02. PMID:11158603

The Genetic Basis of Plant Architecture in 10 Maize Recombinant Inbred Line Populations1[OPEN

PubMed Central

Pan, Qingchun; Xu, Yuancheng; Peng, Yong; Zhan, Wei; Li, Wenqiang; Li, Lin

2017-01-01

Plant architecture is a key factor affecting planting density and grain yield in maize (Zea mays). However, the genetic mechanisms underlying plant architecture in diverse genetic backgrounds have not been fully addressed. Here, we performed a large-scale phenotyping of 10 plant architecture-related traits and dissected the genetic loci controlling these traits in 10 recombinant inbred line populations derived from 14 diverse genetic backgrounds. Nearly 800 quantitative trait loci (QTLs) with major and minor effects were identified as contributing to the phenotypic variation of plant architecture-related traits. Ninety-two percent of these QTLs were detected in only one population, confirming the diverse genetic backgrounds of the mapping populations and the prevalence of rare alleles in maize. The numbers and effects of QTLs are positively associated with the phenotypic variation in the population, which, in turn, correlates positively with parental phenotypic and genetic variations. A large proportion (38.5%) of QTLs was associated with at least two traits, suggestive of the frequent occurrence of pleiotropic loci or closely linked loci. Key developmental genes, which previously were shown to affect plant architecture in mutant studies, were found to colocalize with many QTLs. Five QTLs were further validated using the segregating populations developed from residual heterozygous lines present in the recombinant inbred line populations. Additionally, one new plant height QTL, qPH3, has been fine-mapped to a 600-kb genomic region where three candidate genes are located. These results provide insights into the genetic mechanisms controlling plant architecture and will benefit the selection of ideal plant architecture in maize breeding. PMID:28838954

The association between fear of cancer recurrence and quality of life among Chinese cancer survivors: main effect hypothesis and buffering hypothesis.

PubMed

Cho, Dalnim; Lu, Qian

2017-09-01

The aim of the present study is to examine whether fear of cancer recurrence (FCR) is related to health-related quality of life (HRQOL) among Chinese cancer survivors, an understudied population (i.e., main effect hypothesis). Also, we investigated whether the FCR-HRQOL link is moderated by two coping strategies, avoidance and positive reappraisal (i.e., buffering hypothesis). This is a cross-sectional study conducted among 238 Chinese cancer survivors in Beijing. Participants completed a set of questionnaires including FCR, coping, and HRQOL. FCR was related to lower physical, psychological, social, and spiritual well-beings, even when demographics, cancer-related factors, and coping were taken into account. There was only one moderation effect between FCR and avoidance coping. Surprisingly, the detrimental effect of FCR on spiritual well-being was lessened among those with high avoidance coping such that the negative association between FCR and spiritual well-being was only found in those with low avoidance coping and not among those with high avoidance coping. Findings largely supported the main effect hypothesis. FCR was associated with diverse domains of HRQOL among Chinese cancer survivors. The buffering hypothesis was largely not supported in this population. Rather, in some cases, the effects of FCR and coping strategies on HRQOL were independent. Thus, ways to attenuate the harmful effects of FCR on HRQOL among Chinese cancer survivors remain unresolved. It is urgent and timely that future studies focus on FCR and HRQOL in this population.

Eco-evolutionary effects on population recovery following catastrophic disturbance

PubMed Central

Weese, Dylan J; Schwartz, Amy K; Bentzen, Paul; Hendry, Andrew P; Kinnison, Michael T

2011-01-01

Fine-scale genetic diversity and contemporary evolution can theoretically influence ecological dynamics in the wild. Such eco-evolutionary effects might be particularly relevant to the persistence of populations facing acute or chronic environmental change. However, experimental data on wild populations is currently lacking to support this notion. One way that ongoing evolution might influence the dynamics of threatened populations is through the role that selection plays in mediating the ‘rescue effect’, the ability of migrants to contribute to the recovery of populations facing local disturbance and decline. Here, we combine experiments with natural catastrophic events to show that ongoing evolution is a major determinant of migrant contributions to population recovery in Trinidadian guppies (Poecilia reticulata). These eco-evolutionary limits on migrant contributions appear to be mediated by the reinforcing effects of natural and sexual selection against migrants, despite the close geographic proximity of migrant sources. These findings show that ongoing adaptive evolution can be a double-edged sword for population persistence, maintaining local fitness at a cost to demographic risk. Our study further serves as a potent reminder that significant evolutionary and eco-evolutionary dynamics might be at play even where the phenotypic status quo is largely maintained generation to generation. PMID:25567978

Pesticides: an important but underused model for the environmental health sciences.

PubMed Central

Hodgson, E; Levi, P E

1996-01-01

Pesticides are high-volume, widely used, environmental chemicals and there is continuous debate concerning their possible role in many chronic human health effects. Because of their known structures, known rates of application, and the presence of a large occupationally exposed population, they are not only important in their own right but are ideal models for the effects of environmental chemicals on the population in general. For reasons that are not always clear, this potential has not been realized. These exposed populations represent an underused asset in the study of the human health effects of environmental contaminants. Chronic effects thought to involve pesticides include carcinogenesis, neurotoxicity, and reproductive and development effects. In this paper we attempt to summarize this concern and, relying to a large extent on studies in our own laboratory, to indicate the importance and present status of studies of the mammalian metabolism of pesticides and indicate the need for further use of this model. Aspects considered include the role of pesticides as substrates for xenobiotic-metabolizing enzymes such as cytochrome P450 and the flavin-containing monooxygenase and their role as inducers or inhibitors of metabolic enzymes. The interaction of pesticides with complex multienzyme pathways, the role of biological characteristics, particularly gender, in pesticide metabolism, and the special role of pesticides at portals of entry and in target tissues are also considered. PMID:8722114

Complex Population Dynamics and the Coalescent Under Neutrality

PubMed Central

Volz, Erik M.

2012-01-01

Estimates of the coalescent effective population size Ne can be poorly correlated with the true population size. The relationship between Ne and the population size is sensitive to the way in which birth and death rates vary over time. The problem of inference is exacerbated when the mechanisms underlying population dynamics are complex and depend on many parameters. In instances where nonparametric estimators of Ne such as the skyline struggle to reproduce the correct demographic history, model-based estimators that can draw on prior information about population size and growth rates may be more efficient. A coalescent model is developed for a large class of populations such that the demographic history is described by a deterministic nonlinear dynamical system of arbitrary dimension. This class of demographic model differs from those typically used in population genetics. Birth and death rates are not fixed, and no assumptions are made regarding the fraction of the population sampled. Furthermore, the population may be structured in such a way that gene copies reproduce both within and across demes. For this large class of models, it is shown how to derive the rate of coalescence, as well as the likelihood of a gene genealogy with heterochronous sampling and labeled taxa, and how to simulate a coalescent tree conditional on a complex demographic history. This theoretical framework encapsulates many of the models used by ecologists and epidemiologists and should facilitate the integration of population genetics with the study of mathematical population dynamics. PMID:22042576

Reentry Works: The Implementation and Effectiveness of a Serious and Violent Offender Reentry Initiative

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bouffard, Jeffrey A.; Bergeron, Lindsey E.

2006-01-01

Spurred by large increases in prison populations and other recent sentencing and correctional trends, the federal government has supported the development and implementation of Serious and Violent Offender Reentry Initiatives (SVORI) nationwide. While existing research demonstrates the effectiveness of the separate components of these programs…

Repeating Cardiopulmonary Health Effects in Rural North Carolina Population During a Second Large Peat Wildfire

EPA Science Inventory

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular health effects of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure from wildfire smoke are neither definitive nor consistent with PM2.5 from other air pollution sources. Non-comparability among wildfire health studies limits research conclusions.METHODS:We exam...

Theoretical models of the influence of genomic architecture on the dynamics of speciation.

PubMed

Flaxman, Samuel M; Wacholder, Aaron C; Feder, Jeffrey L; Nosil, Patrik

2014-08-01

A long-standing problem in evolutionary biology has been determining whether and how gradual, incremental changes at the gene level can account for rapid speciation and bursts of adaptive radiation. Using genome-scale computer simulations, we extend previous theory showing how gradual adaptive change can generate nonlinear population transitions, resulting in the rapid formation of new, reproductively isolated species. We show that these transitions occur via a mechanism rooted in a basic property of biological heredity: the organization of genes in genomes. Genomic organization of genes facilitates two processes: (i) the build-up of statistical associations among large numbers of genes and (ii) the action of divergent selection on persistent combinations of alleles. When a population has accumulated a critical amount of standing, divergently selected variation, the combination of these two processes allows many mutations of small effect to act synergistically and precipitously split one population into two discontinuous, reproductively isolated groups. Periods of allopatry, chromosomal linkage among loci, and large-effect alleles can facilitate this process under some conditions, but are not required for it. Our results complement and extend existing theory on alternative stable states during population divergence, distinct phases of speciation and the rapid emergence of multilocus barriers to gene flow. The results are thus a step towards aligning population genomic theory with modern empirical studies. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Modeling the population-level effects of hypoxia on a coastal fish: implications of a spatially-explicit individual-based model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rose, K.; Creekmore, S.; Thomas, P.; Craig, K.; Neilan, R.; Rahman, S.; Wang, L.; Justic, D.

2016-02-01

The northwestern Gulf of Mexico (USA) currently experiences a large hypoxic area ("dead zone") during the summer. The population-level effects of hypoxia on coastal fish are largely unknown. We developed a spatially-explicit, individual-based model to analyze how hypoxia effects on reproduction, growth, and mortality of individual Atlantic croaker could lead to population-level responses. The model follows the hourly growth, mortality, reproduction, and movement of individuals on a 300 x 800 spatial grid of 1 km2 cells for 140 years. Chlorophyll-a concentration and water temperature were specified daily for each grid cell. Dissolved oxygen (DO) was obtained from a 3-D water quality model for four years that differed in their severity of hypoxia. A bioenergetics model was used to represent growth, mortality was assumed stage- and age-dependent, and movement behavior was based on temperature preferences and avoidance of low DO. Hypoxia effects were imposed using exposure-effects sub-models that converted time-varying exposure to DO to reductions in growth and fecundity, and increases in mortality. Using sequences of mild, intermediate, and severe hypoxia years, the model predicted a 20% decrease in population abundance. Additional simulations were performed under the assumption that river-based nutrients loadings that lead to more hypoxia also lead to higher primary production and more food for croaker. Twenty-five percent and 50% nutrient reduction scenarios were simulated by adjusting the cholorphyll-a concentrations used as food proxy for the croaker. We then incrementally increased the DO concentrations to determine how much hypoxia would need to be reduced to offset the lower food production resulting from reduced nutrients. We discuss the generality of our results, the hidden effects of hypoxia on fish, and our overall strategy of combining laboratory and field studies with modeling to produce robust predictions of population responses to stressors under dynamic and multi-stressor conditions.

Bayesian Modeling of Prion Disease Dynamics in Mule Deer Using Population Monitoring and Capture-Recapture Data

PubMed Central

Geremia, Chris; Miller, Michael W.; Hoeting, Jennifer A.; Antolin, Michael F.; Hobbs, N. Thompson

2015-01-01

Epidemics of chronic wasting disease (CWD) of North American Cervidae have potential to harm ecosystems and economies. We studied a migratory population of mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) affected by CWD for at least three decades using a Bayesian framework to integrate matrix population and disease models with long-term monitoring data and detailed process-level studies. We hypothesized CWD prevalence would be stable or increase between two observation periods during the late 1990s and after 2010, with higher CWD prevalence making deer population decline more likely. The weight of evidence suggested a reduction in the CWD outbreak over time, perhaps in response to intervening harvest-mediated population reductions. Disease effects on deer population growth under current conditions were subtle with a 72% chance that CWD depressed population growth. With CWD, we forecasted a growth rate near one and largely stable deer population. Disease effects appear to be moderated by timing of infection, prolonged disease course, and locally variable infection. Long-term outcomes will depend heavily on whether current conditions hold and high prevalence remains a localized phenomenon. PMID:26509806

Genetic differentiation of the stingless bee Tetragonula pagdeni in Thailand using SSCP analysis of a large subunit of mitochondrial ribosomal DNA.

PubMed

Thummajitsakul, Sirikul; Klinbunga, Sirawut; Sittipraneed, Siriporn

2011-08-01

Genetic diversity and population differentiation of the stingless bee Tetragonula pagdeni (Schwarz) was assessed using single-strand conformational polymorphism (SSCP) analysis of a large subunit of the ribosomal RNA gene (16S rRNA). High levels of genetic variation among individuals within each population (North, Northeast, Central, Prachuap Khiri Khan, Chumphon, and Peninsular Thailand) of T. pagdeni were observed. Analysis of molecular variance indicated significant genetic differentiation among the six geographic populations (Φ (PT) = 0.28, P < 0.001) and between samples collected from north and south of the Isthmus of Kra (Φ (PT) = 0.18, P < 0.001). In addition, Φ (PT) values between all pairwise comparisons were statistically significant (P < 0.01), indicating strong degrees of intraspecific population differentiation. Therefore, PCR-SSCP is a simple and cost-effective technique applicable for routine population genetic analyses in T. pagdeni and other stingless bees. The results also provide an important baseline for the conservation and management of this ecologically important species.

Sex-based differences in the adaptive value of social behavior contrasted against morphology and environment.

PubMed

Vander Wal, E; Festa-Bianchet, M; Réale, D; Coltman, D W; Pelletier, F

2015-03-01

The adaptive nature of sociality has long been a central question in ecology and evolution. However, the relative importance of social behavior for fitness, compared to morphology and environment, remains largely unknown. We assessed the importance of sociality for fitness (lamb production and survival) in a population of mark6d bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) over 16 years (n = 1022 sheep-years). We constructed social networks from observations (n = 38,350) of group membership (n = 3150 groups). We then tested whether consistent individual differences in social behavior (centrality) exist and evaluated their relative importance compared to factors known to affect fitness: mass, age, parental effects, and population density. Sheep exhibited consistent individual differences in social centrality. Controlling for maternal carryover effects and age, the positive effect of centrality in a social network on adult female lamb production and survival was equal or greater than the effect of body mass or population density. Social centrality had less effect on male survival and no effect on adult male lamb production or lamb survival. Through its effect on lamb production and survival, sociality in fission-fusion animal societies may ultimately influence population dynamics equally or more than morphological or environmental effects.

Production of large resonant plasma volumes in microwave electron cyclotron resonance ion sources

DOEpatents

Alton, Gerald D.

1998-01-01

Microwave injection methods for enhancing the performance of existing electron cyclotron resonance (ECR) ion sources. The methods are based on the use of high-power diverse frequency microwaves, including variable-frequency, multiple-discrete-frequency, and broadband microwaves. The methods effect large resonant "volume" ECR regions in the ion sources. The creation of these large ECR plasma volumes permits coupling of more microwave power into the plasma, resulting in the heating of a much larger electron population to higher energies, the effect of which is to produce higher charge state distributions and much higher intensities within a particular charge state than possible in present ECR ion sources.

Adapting to a Changing Environment: Modeling the Interaction of Directional Selection and Plasticity.

PubMed

Nunney, Leonard

2016-01-01

Human-induced habitat loss and fragmentation constrains the range of many species, making them unable to respond to climate change by moving. For such species to avoid extinction, they must respond with some combination of phenotypic plasticity and genetic adaptation. Haldane's "cost of natural selection" limits the rate of adaptation, but, although modeling has shown that in very large populations long-term adaptation can be maintained at rates substantially faster than Haldane's suggested limit, maintaining large populations is often an impossibility, so phenotypic plasticity may be crucial in enhancing the long-term survival of small populations. The potential importance of plasticity is in "buying time" for populations subject to directional environmental change: if genotypes can encompass a greater environmental range, then populations can maintain high fitness for a longer period of time. Alternatively, plasticity could be detrimental by lessening the effectiveness of natural selection in promoting genetic adaptation. Here, I modeled a directionally changing environment in which a genotype's adaptive phenotypic plasticity is centered around the environment where its fitness is highest. Plasticity broadens environmental tolerance and, provided it is not too costly, is favored by natural selection. However, a paradoxical result of the individually advantageous spread of plasticity is that, unless the adaptive trait is determined by very few loci, the long-term extinction risk of a population increases. This effect reflects a conflict between the short-term individual benefit of plasticity and a long-term detriment to population persistence, adding to the multiple threats facing small populations under conditions of climate change. © The American Genetic Association. 2015. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Climate effects and feedback structure determining weed population dynamics in a long-term experiment.

PubMed

Lima, Mauricio; Navarrete, Luis; González-Andujar, José Luis

2012-01-01

Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years) on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors). Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements.

Climate Effects and Feedback Structure Determining Weed Population Dynamics in a Long-Term Experiment

PubMed Central

Lima, Mauricio; Navarrete, Luis; González-Andujar, José Luis

2012-01-01

Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years) on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors). Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements. PMID:22272362

Hitchhiking and epistasis give rise to cohort dynamics in adapting populations

PubMed Central

Buskirk, Sean W.; Peace, Ryan Emily; Lang, Gregory I.

2017-01-01

Beneficial mutations are the driving force of adaptive evolution. In asexual populations, the identification of beneficial alleles is confounded by the presence of genetically linked hitchhiker mutations. Parallel evolution experiments enable the recognition of common targets of selection; yet these targets are inherently enriched for genes of large target size and mutations of large effect. A comprehensive study of individual mutations is necessary to create a realistic picture of the evolutionarily significant spectrum of beneficial mutations. Here we use a bulk-segregant approach to identify the beneficial mutations across 11 lineages of experimentally evolved yeast populations. We report that nearly 80% of detected mutations have no discernible effects on fitness and less than 1% are deleterious. We determine the distribution of driver and hitchhiker mutations in 31 mutational cohorts, groups of mutations that arise synchronously from low frequency and track tightly with one another. Surprisingly, we find that one-third of cohorts lack identifiable driver mutations. In addition, we identify intracohort synergistic epistasis between alleles of hsl7 and kel1, which arose together in a low-frequency lineage. PMID:28720700

Lightning Channel Corona Formation Treated as a Large System of Streamers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlson, B.; Lehtinen, N. G.; Kochkin, P.

2017-12-01

Transfer of charge along a lightning channel leads to strong electric fields that drive such charge outward. This charge flow is nonuniform, breaking up into millimeter-scale discharge structures called streamers. The motion of such streamers can carry charge many meters outward from the channel, but each individual streamer only carries a small amount of charge. Transfer of macroscopic charge outward thus requires a large population of streamers that are expected to interact and exhibit interesting collective behaviors. We attempt to simulate such collective behaviors by approximating the behavior of each streamer but retaining streamer interactions and overall electrodynamic effects and apply this simulation to a few key scenarios. For the case of flow of charge off a lightning channel, we simulate a continually growing population of streamers injected near a charged conducting channel. Further, motivated by lightning initiation, we simulate the growth of a population of streamers from a single seed streamer as might initiate from a hydrometeor. For all cases considered, we characterize the charges and currents involved, compare to observations where possible, and characterize the collective effects including spatial and temporal non-uniformity.

Effect of modelling slum populations on influenza spread in Delhi

PubMed Central

Chen, Jiangzhuo; Chu, Shuyu; Chungbaek, Youngyun; Khan, Maleq; Kuhlman, Christopher; Marathe, Achla; Mortveit, Henning; Vullikanti, Anil; Xie, Dawen

2016-01-01

Objectives This research studies the impact of influenza epidemic in the slum and non-slum areas of Delhi, the National Capital Territory of India, by taking proper account of slum demographics and residents’ activities, using a highly resolved social contact network of the 13.8 million residents of Delhi. Methods An SEIR model is used to simulate the spread of influenza on two different synthetic social contact networks of Delhi, one where slums and non-slums are treated the same in terms of their demographics and daily sets of activities and the other, where slum and non-slum regions have different attributes. Results Differences between the epidemic outcomes on the two networks are large. Time-to-peak infection is overestimated by several weeks, and the cumulative infection rate and peak infection rate are underestimated by 10–50%, when slum attributes are ignored. Conclusions Slum populations have a significant effect on influenza transmission in urban areas. Improper specification of slums in large urban regions results in underestimation of infections in the entire population and hence will lead to misguided interventions by policy planners. PMID:27687898

Elucidating the genetic architecture of reproductive ageing in the Japanese population.

PubMed

Horikoshi, Momoko; Day, Felix R; Akiyama, Masato; Hirata, Makoto; Kamatani, Yoichiro; Matsuda, Koichi; Ishigaki, Kazuyoshi; Kanai, Masahiro; Wright, Hollis; Toro, Carlos A; Ojeda, Sergio R; Lomniczi, Alejandro; Kubo, Michiaki; Ong, Ken K; Perry, John R B

2018-05-17

Population studies elucidating the genetic architecture of reproductive ageing have been largely limited to European ancestries, restricting the generalizability of the findings and overlooking possible key genes poorly captured by common European genetic variation. Here, we report 26 loci (all P < 5 × 10 -8 ) for reproductive ageing, i.e. puberty timing or age at menopause, in a non-European population (up to 67,029 women of Japanese ancestry). Highlighted genes for menopause include GNRH1, which supports a primary, rather than passive, role for hypothalamic-pituitary GnRH signalling in the timing of menopause. For puberty timing, we demonstrate an aetiological role for receptor-like protein tyrosine phosphatases by combining evidence across population genetics and pre- and peri-pubertal changes in hypothalamic gene expression in rodent and primate models. Furthermore, our findings demonstrate widespread differences in allele frequencies and effect estimates between Japanese and European associated variants, highlighting the benefits and challenges of large-scale trans-ethnic approaches.

A modified approach to estimating sample size for simple logistic regression with one continuous covariate.

PubMed

Novikov, I; Fund, N; Freedman, L S

2010-01-15

Different methods for the calculation of sample size for simple logistic regression (LR) with one normally distributed continuous covariate give different results. Sometimes the difference can be large. Furthermore, some methods require the user to specify the prevalence of cases when the covariate equals its population mean, rather than the more natural population prevalence. We focus on two commonly used methods and show through simulations that the power for a given sample size may differ substantially from the nominal value for one method, especially when the covariate effect is large, while the other method performs poorly if the user provides the population prevalence instead of the required parameter. We propose a modification of the method of Hsieh et al. that requires specification of the population prevalence and that employs Schouten's sample size formula for a t-test with unequal variances and group sizes. This approach appears to increase the accuracy of the sample size estimates for LR with one continuous covariate.

Sand lizard (Lacerta agilis) phenology in a warming world.

PubMed

Ljungström, Gabriella; Wapstra, Erik; Olsson, Mats

2015-10-08

Present-day climate change has altered the phenology (the timing of periodic life cycle events) of many plant and animal populations worldwide. Some of these changes have been adaptive, leading to an increase in population fitness, whereas others have been associated with fitness decline. Representing short-term responses to an altered weather regime, hitherto observed changes are largely explained by phenotypic plasticity. However, to track climatically induced shifts in optimal phenotype as climate change proceeds, evolutionary capacity in key limiting climate- and fitness-related traits is likely to be crucial. In order to produce realistic predictions about the effects of climate change on species and populations, a main target for conservation biologists is thus to assess the potential of natural populations to respond by these two mechanisms. In this study we use a large 15-year dataset on an ectotherm model, the Swedish sand lizard (Lacerta agilis), to investigate how higher spring temperature is likely to affect oviposition timing in a high latitude population, a trait strongly linked to offspring fitness and survival. With an interest in both the short- and potential long-term effect of rising temperatures, we applied a random regression model, which yields estimates of population-level plasticity and among-individual variation in the average, as well as the plastic, response to temperature. Population plasticity represents capacity for short-term adjustments whereas variation among individuals in a fitness-related trait indicates an opportunity for natural selection and hence for evolutionary adaptation. The analysis revealed both population-level plasticity and individual-level variation in average laying date. In contrast, we found no evidence for variation among females in their plastic responses to spring temperature, which could demonstrate a similarity in responses amongst females, but may also be due to a lack of statistical power to detect such an effect. Our findings indicate that climate warming may have positive fitness effects in this lizard population through an advancement of oviposition date. This prediction is consistent over shorter and potentially also longer time scales as the analysis revealed both population-level plasticity and individual-level variation in average laying date. However, the genetic basis for this variation would have to be examined in order to predict an evolutionary response.

Population-Based Resequencing of Experimentally Evolved Populations Reveals the Genetic Basis of Body Size Variation in Drosophila melanogaster

PubMed Central

Turner, Thomas L.; Stewart, Andrew D.; Fields, Andrew T.; Rice, William R.; Tarone, Aaron M.

2011-01-01

Body size is a classic quantitative trait with evolutionarily significant variation within many species. Locating the alleles responsible for this variation would help understand the maintenance of variation in body size in particular, as well as quantitative traits in general. However, successful genome-wide association of genotype and phenotype may require very large sample sizes if alleles have low population frequencies or modest effects. As a complementary approach, we propose that population-based resequencing of experimentally evolved populations allows for considerable power to map functional variation. Here, we use this technique to investigate the genetic basis of natural variation in body size in Drosophila melanogaster. Significant differentiation of hundreds of loci in replicate selection populations supports the hypothesis that the genetic basis of body size variation is very polygenic in D. melanogaster. Significantly differentiated variants are limited to single genes at some loci, allowing precise hypotheses to be formed regarding causal polymorphisms, while other significant regions are large and contain many genes. By using significantly associated polymorphisms as a priori candidates in follow-up studies, these data are expected to provide considerable power to determine the genetic basis of natural variation in body size. PMID:21437274

Correction of Population Stratification in Large Multi-Ethnic Association Studies

PubMed Central

Serre, David; Montpetit, Alexandre; Paré, Guillaume; Engert, James C.; Yusuf, Salim; Keavney, Bernard; Hudson, Thomas J.; Anand, Sonia

2008-01-01

Background The vast majority of genetic risk factors for complex diseases have, taken individually, a small effect on the end phenotype. Population-based association studies therefore need very large sample sizes to detect significant differences between affected and non-affected individuals. Including thousands of affected individuals in a study requires recruitment in numerous centers, possibly from different geographic regions. Unfortunately such a recruitment strategy is likely to complicate the study design and to generate concerns regarding population stratification. Methodology/Principal Findings We analyzed 9,751 individuals representing three main ethnic groups - Europeans, Arabs and South Asians - that had been enrolled from 154 centers involving 52 countries for a global case/control study of acute myocardial infarction. All individuals were genotyped at 103 candidate genes using 1,536 SNPs selected with a tagging strategy that captures most of the genetic diversity in different populations. We show that relying solely on self-reported ethnicity is not sufficient to exclude population stratification and we present additional methods to identify and correct for stratification. Conclusions/Significance Our results highlight the importance of carefully addressing population stratification and of carefully “cleaning” the sample prior to analyses to obtain stronger signals of association and to avoid spurious results. PMID:18196181

Colonization of a territory by a stochastic population under a strong Allee effect and a low immigration pressure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Be'er, Shay; Assaf, Michael; Meerson, Baruch

2015-06-01

We study the dynamics of colonization of a territory by a stochastic population at low immigration pressure. We assume a sufficiently strong Allee effect that introduces, in deterministic theory, a large critical population size for colonization. At low immigration rates, the average precolonization population size is small, thus invalidating the WKB approximation to the master equation. We circumvent this difficulty by deriving an exact zero-flux solution of the master equation and matching it with an approximate nonzero-flux solution of the pertinent Fokker-Planck equation in a small region around the critical population size. This procedure provides an accurate evaluation of the quasistationary probability distribution of population sizes in the precolonization state and of the mean time to colonization, for a wide range of immigration rates. At sufficiently high immigration rates our results agree with WKB results obtained previously. At low immigration rates the results can be very different.

Colonization of a territory by a stochastic population under a strong Allee effect and a low immigration pressure.

PubMed

Be'er, Shay; Assaf, Michael; Meerson, Baruch

2015-06-01

We study the dynamics of colonization of a territory by a stochastic population at low immigration pressure. We assume a sufficiently strong Allee effect that introduces, in deterministic theory, a large critical population size for colonization. At low immigration rates, the average precolonization population size is small, thus invalidating the WKB approximation to the master equation. We circumvent this difficulty by deriving an exact zero-flux solution of the master equation and matching it with an approximate nonzero-flux solution of the pertinent Fokker-Planck equation in a small region around the critical population size. This procedure provides an accurate evaluation of the quasistationary probability distribution of population sizes in the precolonization state and of the mean time to colonization, for a wide range of immigration rates. At sufficiently high immigration rates our results agree with WKB results obtained previously. At low immigration rates the results can be very different.

Improving Quality and Reducing Cost: Designs for Effective Learning.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Twigg, Carol A.

2003-01-01

Discusses 30 institutions participating in a program exploring how large-enrollment introductory courses can be redesigned using technology to extend access to a new population of students without trading quality for cost savings. (EV)

Effects of illegal harvest of eggs on the population decline of leatherback turtles in Las Baulas Marine National Park, Costa Rica.

PubMed

Tomillo, Pilar Santidrián; Saba, Vincent S; Piedra, Rotney; Paladino, Frank V; Spotila, James R

2008-10-01

Within 19 years the nesting population of leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) at Parque Nacional Marino Las Baulas declined from 1500 turtles nesting per year to about 100. We analyzed the effects of fishery bycatch and illegal harvesting (poaching) of eggs on this population. We modeled the population response to different levels of egg harvest (90, 75, 50, and 25%) and the effect of eradicating poaching at different times during the population decline. We compared effects of 90% poaching with those of 20% adult mortality because both of these processes were present in the population at Las Baulas. There was a stepwise decline in number of nesting turtles at all levels of egg harvest. Extirpation times for different levels of poaching ranged from 45 to 282 years. The nesting population declined more slowly and survived longer with 20% adult mortality (146 years) than it did with 90% poaching (45 years). Time that elapsed until poaching stopped determined the average population size at which the population stabilized, ranging from 90 to 420 nesting turtles. Our model predicted that saving clutches lost naturally would restore the population when adult mortality rates were low and would contribute more to population recovery when there were short remigration intervals between nesting seasons and a large proportion of natural loss of clutches. Because the model indicated that poaching was the most important cause of the leatherback decline at Las Baulas, protecting nests on the beach and protecting the beach from development are critical for survival of this population. Nevertheless, the model predicted that current high mortality rates of adults will prevent population recovery. Therefore, protection of the beach habitat and nests must be continued and fishery bycatch must be reduced to save this population.

Adolescent health and adult labor market outcomes.

PubMed

Lundborg, Petter; Nilsson, Anton; Rooth, Dan-Olof

2014-09-01

Whereas a large literature has shown the importance of early life health for adult socioeconomic outcomes, there is little evidence on the importance of adolescent health. We contribute to the literature by studying the impact of adolescent health status on adult labor market outcomes using a unique and large-scale dataset covering almost the entire population of Swedish males. We show that most types of major conditions have long-run effects on future outcomes, and that the strongest effects result from mental conditions. Including sibling fixed effects or twin pair fixed effects reduces the magnitudes of the estimates, but they remain substantial. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Striking Phenotypic Variation yet Low Genetic Differentiation in Sympatric Lake Trout (Salvelinus namaycush)

PubMed Central

Coon, Andrew; Carson, Robert; Debes, Paul V.

2016-01-01

The study of population differentiation in the context of ecological speciation is commonly assessed using populations with obvious discreteness. Fewer studies have examined diversifying populations with occasional adaptive variation and minor reproductive isolation, so factors impeding or facilitating the progress of early stage differentiation are less understood. We detected non-random genetic structuring in lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) inhabiting a large, pristine, postglacial lake (Mistassini Lake, Canada), with up to five discernible genetic clusters having distinctions in body shape, size, colouration and head shape. However, genetic differentiation was low (FST = 0.017) and genetic clustering was largely incongruent between several population- and individual-based clustering approaches. Genotype- and phenotype-environment associations with spatial habitat, depth and fish community structure (competitors and prey) were either inconsistent or weak. Striking morphological variation was often more continuous within than among defined genetic clusters. Low genetic differentiation was a consequence of relatively high contemporary gene flow despite large effective population sizes, not migration-drift disequilibrium. Our results suggest a highly plastic propensity for occupying multiple habitat niches in lake trout and a low cost of morphological plasticity, which may constrain the speed and extent of adaptive divergence. We discuss how factors relating to niche conservatism in this species may also influence how plasticity affects adaptive divergence, even where ample ecological opportunity apparently exists. PMID:27680019

Differential Item Functioning in the SF-36 Physical Functioning and Mental Health Sub-Scales: A Population-Based Investigation in the Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study.

PubMed

Lix, Lisa M; Wu, Xiuyun; Hopman, Wilma; Mayo, Nancy; Sajobi, Tolulope T; Liu, Juxin; Prior, Jerilynn C; Papaioannou, Alexandra; Josse, Robert G; Towheed, Tanveer E; Davison, K Shawn; Sawatzky, Richard

2016-01-01

Self-reported health status measures, like the Short Form 36-item Health Survey (SF-36), can provide rich information about the overall health of a population and its components, such as physical, mental, and social health. However, differential item functioning (DIF), which arises when population sub-groups with the same underlying (i.e., latent) level of health have different measured item response probabilities, may compromise the comparability of these measures. The purpose of this study was to test for DIF on the SF-36 physical functioning (PF) and mental health (MH) sub-scale items in a Canadian population-based sample. Study data were from the prospective Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study (CaMos), which collected baseline data in 1996-1997. DIF was tested using a multiple indicators multiple causes (MIMIC) method. Confirmatory factor analysis defined the latent variable measurement model for the item responses and latent variable regression with demographic and health status covariates (i.e., sex, age group, body weight, self-perceived general health) produced estimates of the magnitude of DIF effects. The CaMos cohort consisted of 9423 respondents; 69.4% were female and 51.7% were less than 65 years. Eight of 10 items on the PF sub-scale and four of five items on the MH sub-scale exhibited DIF. Large DIF effects were observed on PF sub-scale items about vigorous and moderate activities, lifting and carrying groceries, walking one block, and bathing or dressing. On the MH sub-scale items, all DIF effects were small or moderate in size. SF-36 PF and MH sub-scale scores were not comparable across population sub-groups defined by demographic and health status variables due to the effects of DIF, although the magnitude of this bias was not large for most items. We recommend testing and adjusting for DIF to ensure comparability of the SF-36 in population-based investigations.

Social and Demographic Effects of Anthropogenic Mortality: A Test of the Compensatory Mortality Hypothesis in the Red Wolf

PubMed Central

Sparkman, Amanda M.; Waits, Lisette P.; Murray, Dennis L.

2011-01-01

Whether anthropogenic mortality is additive or compensatory to natural mortality in animal populations has long been a question of theoretical and practical importance. Theoretically, under density-dependent conditions populations compensate for anthropogenic mortality through decreases in natural mortality and/or increases in productivity, but recent studies of large carnivores suggest that anthropogenic mortality can be fully additive to natural mortality and thereby constrain annual survival and population growth rate. Nevertheless, mechanisms underlying either compensatory or additive effects continue to be poorly understood. Using long-term data on a reintroduced population of the red wolf, we tested for evidence of additive vs. compensatory effects of anthropogenic mortality on annual survival and population growth rates, and the preservation and reproductive success of breeding pairs. We found that anthropogenic mortality had a strong additive effect on annual survival and population growth rate at low population density, though there was evidence for compensation in population growth at high density. When involving the death of a breeder, anthropogenic mortality was also additive to natural rates of breeding pair dissolution, resulting in a net decrease in the annual preservation of existing breeding pairs. However, though the disbanding of a pack following death of a breeder resulted in fewer recruits per litter relative to stable packs, there was no relationship between natural rates of pair dissolution and population growth rate at either high or low density. Thus we propose that short-term additive effects of anthropogenic mortality on population growth in the red wolf population at low density were primarily a result of direct mortality of adults rather than indirect socially-mediated effects resulting in reduced recruitment. Finally, we also demonstrate that per capita recruitment and the proportion of adults that became reproductive declined steeply with increasing population density, suggesting that there is potential for density-dependent compensation of anthropogenically-mediated population regulation. PMID:21738589

Finite-Time and -Size Scalings in the Evaluation of Large Deviation Functions. Numerical Analysis in Continuous Time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guevara Hidalgo, Esteban; Nemoto, Takahiro; Lecomte, Vivien

Rare trajectories of stochastic systems are important to understand because of their potential impact. However, their properties are by definition difficult to sample directly. Population dynamics provide a numerical tool allowing their study, by means of simulating a large number of copies of the system, which are subjected to a selection rule that favors the rare trajectories of interest. However, such algorithms are plagued by finite simulation time- and finite population size- effects that can render their use delicate. Using the continuous-time cloning algorithm, we analyze the finite-time and finite-size scalings of estimators of the large deviation functions associated to the distribution of the rare trajectories. We use these scalings in order to propose a numerical approach which allows to extract the infinite-time and infinite-size limit of these estimators.

Genetic effects of chronic habitat fragmentation in a wind-pollinated tree

PubMed Central

Jump, Alistair S.; Peñuelas, Josep

2006-01-01

Habitat fragmentation poses a serious threat to plants through genetic changes associated with increased isolation and reduced population size. However, the longevity of trees, combined with effective seed or pollen dispersal, can enhance their resistance to these effects. The European beech (Fagus sylvatica) dominates forest over large regions of Europe. We demonstrate that habitat fragmentation in this species has led to genetic bottlenecks and the disruption of the species' breeding system, leading to significantly elevated levels of inbreeding, population divergence, and reduced genetic diversity within populations. These results show that, in contrast with the findings of previous studies, forest fragmentation has a negative genetic impact, even in this widespread, wind-pollinated tree. The identification of significant effects of forest fragmentation in beech demonstrates that trees are not at reduced risk from environmental change. This should be accounted for in the management of remaining natural and seminatural forest throughout the world. PMID:16698935

Inferring population structure and demographic history using Y-STR data from worldwide populations.

PubMed

Xu, Hongyang; Wang, Chuan-Chao; Shrestha, Rukesh; Wang, Ling-Xiang; Zhang, Manfei; He, Yungang; Kidd, Judith R; Kidd, Kenneth K; Jin, Li; Li, Hui

2015-02-01

The Y chromosome is one of the best genetic materials to explore the evolutionary history of human populations. Global analyses of Y chromosomal short tandem repeats (STRs) data can reveal very interesting world population structures and histories. However, previous Y-STR works tended to focus on small geographical ranges or only included limited sample sizes. In this study, we have investigated population structure and demographic history using 17 Y chromosomal STRs data of 979 males from 44 worldwide populations. The largest genetic distances have been observed between pairs of African and non-African populations. American populations with the lowest genetic diversities also showed large genetic distances and coancestry coefficients with other populations, whereas Eurasian populations displayed close genetic affinities. African populations tend to have the oldest time to the most recent common ancestors (TMRCAs), the largest effective population sizes and the earliest expansion times, whereas the American, Siberian, Melanesian, and isolated Atayal populations have the most recent TMRCAs and expansion times, and the smallest effective population sizes. This clear geographic pattern is well consistent with serial founder model for the origin of populations outside Africa. The Y-STR dataset presented here provides the most detailed view of worldwide population structure and human male demographic history, and additionally will be of great benefit to future forensic applications and population genetic studies.

The role of a dominant predator in shaping biodiversity over space and time in a marine ecosystem.

PubMed

Ellingsen, Kari E; Anderson, Marti J; Shackell, Nancy L; Tveraa, Torkild; Yoccoz, Nigel G; Frank, Kenneth T

2015-09-01

1. Exploitation of living marine resources has resulted in major changes to populations of targeted species and functional groups of large-bodied species in the ocean. However, the effects of overfishing and collapse of large top predators on the broad-scale biodiversity of oceanic ecosystems remain largely unexplored. 2. Populations of the Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) were overfished and several collapsed in the early 1990s across Atlantic Canada, providing a unique opportunity to study potential ecosystem-level effects of the reduction of a dominant predator on fish biodiversity, and to identify how such effects might interact with other environmental factors, such as changes in climate, over time. 3. We combined causal modelling with model selection and multimodel inference to analyse 41 years of fishery-independent survey data (1970-2010) and quantify ecosystem-level effects of overfishing and climate variation on the biodiversity of fishes across a broad area (172 000 km(2) ) of the Scotian Shelf. 4. We found that alpha and beta diversity increased with decreases in cod occurrence; fish communities were less homogeneous and more variable in systems where cod no longer dominated. These effects were most pronounced in the colder north-eastern parts of the Scotian Shelf. 5. Our results provide strong evidence that intensive harvesting (and collapse) of marine apex predators can have large impacts on biodiversity, with far-reaching consequences for ecological stability across an entire ecosystem. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.

Quantifying Diurnal Cloud Radiative Effects by Cloud Type in the Tropical Western Pacific

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Burleyson, Casey D.; Long, Charles N.; Comstock, Jennifer M.

2015-06-01

Cloud radiative effects are examined using long-term datasets collected at the three Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facilities in the tropical western Pacific. We quantify the surface radiation budget, cloud populations, and cloud radiative effects by partitioning the data by cloud type, time of day, and as a function of large scale modes of variability such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase and wet/dry seasons at Darwin. The novel facet of our analysis is that we break aggregate cloud radiative effects down by cloud type across the diurnal cycle. The Nauru cloud populations andmore » subsequently the surface radiation budget are strongly impacted by ENSO variability whereas the cloud populations over Manus only shift slightly in response to changes in ENSO phase. The Darwin site exhibits large seasonal monsoon related variations. We show that while deeper convective clouds have a strong conditional influence on the radiation reaching the surface, their limited frequency reduces their aggregate radiative impact. The largest source of shortwave cloud radiative effects at all three sites comes from low clouds. We use the observations to demonstrate that potential model biases in the amplitude of the diurnal cycle and mean cloud frequency would lead to larger errors in the surface energy budget compared to biases in the timing of the diurnal cycle of cloud frequency. Our results provide solid benchmarks to evaluate model simulations of cloud radiative effects in the tropics.« less

Genotypic Diversity Effects on the Performance of Taraxacum officinale Populations Increase with Time and Environmental Favorability

PubMed Central

Drummond, Emily B. M.; Vellend, Mark

2012-01-01

Within-population genetic diversity influences many ecological processes, but few studies have examined how environmental conditions may impact these short-term diversity effects. Over four growing seasons, we followed experimental populations of a clonal, ubiquitous weed, Taraxacum officinale, with different numbers of genotypes in relatively favorable fallow field and unfavorable mowed lawn environmental treatments. Population performance (measured as total leaf area, seed production or biomass) clearly and consistently increased with diversity, and this effect became stronger over the course of the experiment. Diversity effects were stronger, and with different underlying mechanisms, in the fallow field versus the mowed lawn. Large genotypes dominated in the fallow field driving overyielding (via positive selection effects), whereas in the mowed lawn, where performance was limited by regular disturbance, there was evidence for complementarity among genotypes (with one compact genotype in particular performing better in mixture than monoculture). Hence, we predict stronger genotypic diversity effects in environments where intense intraspecific competition enhances genotypic differences. Our four-year field experiment plus seedling establishment trials indicate that genotypic diversity effects have far-reaching and context-dependent consequences across generations. PMID:22348004

Generalized herd effects and vaccine evaluation: impact of live influenza vaccine on off-target bacterial colonisation.

PubMed

Mina, Michael J

2017-06-01

Interactions between pathogens and commensal microbes are major contributors to health and disease. Infectious diseases however are most often considered independent, viewed within a one-host one-pathogen paradigm and, by extension, the interventions used to treat and prevent them are measured and evaluated within this same paradigm. Vaccines, especially live vaccines, by stimulating immune responses or directly interacting with other microbes can alter the environment in which they act, with effects that span across pathogen species. Live attenuated infl uenza vaccines for example, while safe, increase upper respiratory tract bacterial carriage density of important human commensal pathogens like Streptococcus pneumoniae and Staphylococcus aureus. Further, by altering the ecological niche and dynamics of phylogenetically distinct microbes within the host, vaccines may unintentionally affect transmission of non-vaccine targeted pathogens. Thus, vaccine effects may span across species and across scales, from the individual to the population level. In keeping with traditional vaccine herd-effects that indirectly protect even unvaccinated individuals by reducing population prevalence of vaccine-targeted pathogens, we call these cross-species cross-scale effects "generalized herd-effects". As opposed to traditional herd-effects, "generalized" relaxes the assumption that the effect occurs at the level of the vaccine-target pathogen and "herd effect" implies, as usual, that the effects indirectly impact the population at large, including unvaccinated bystanders. Unlike traditional herd-effects that decrease population prevalence of the vaccine-target, generalized herd-effects may decrease or increase prevalence and disease by the off-target pathogen. LAIV, for example, by increasing pneumococcal density in the upper respiratory tract of vaccine recipients, especially children, may increase pneumococcal transmission and prevalence, leading to excess pneumococcal invasive disease in the population, especially among the elderly and others most susceptible to pneumococcal disease. However, these effects may also be beneficial, for example the large reductions in all-cause mortality noted following measles vaccines. Here we discuss evidence for these novel vaccine effects and suggest that vaccine monitoring and evaluation programs should consider generalized herd effects to appreciate the full impacts of vaccines, beneficial or detrimental, across species and scales that are inevitably hiding in plain sight, affecting human health and disease. © 2017 The British Infection Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Genetic structure among coastal tailed frog populations of Mount St. Helens is moderated by post-disturbance management

Treesearch

Stephen F. Spear; Charles M. Crisafulli; Andrew Storfer

2012-01-01

Catastrophic disturbances often provide “natural laboratories” that allow for greater understanding of ecological processes and response of natural populations. The 1980 eruption of the Mount St. Helens volcano in Washington, USA, provided a unique opportunity to test biotic effects of a large-scale stochastic disturbance, as well as the influence of post-disturbance...

Lake Michigan: Man's effects on native fish stocks and other biota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wells, LaRue; McLain, Alberton L.

1973-01-01

Exploitation was largely responsible for the changes in Lake Michigan fish stocks before the invasion of the smelt, and probably before the invasion of the sea lamprey. The lamprey and alewife, however, have exerted a greater impact than the fishery on native fish populations in recent decades. Accelerated eutrophication and other pollution, although important, have not equalled the other factors in causing changes in native fish populations.

EFFECT OF RADIOACTIVE ISOTOPE ON THE FLOWERING BEHAVIOUR OF JUTE (CORCHORUS OLITORIUS LINN.)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Das, A.; Choudhury, A.K.R.

1962-03-01

Following irradiation with S/sup 35/, the dispersion of the flowering time of jute was increased in the first generation. The genetic variability of the treated population in the second generation was found to be greater than that of control population by two and a half times. But owing to the largeness of environmental variation, poor heritability of the flowering time was noticed. (auth)

Role of Light in Breast Cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stevens, Richard G.; Anderson, Larry E.; Michael F. Holick

1999-06-14

There is a prima facie reason for studying possible biological effects of light-at-night (LAN) in the laboratory and human health effects in the population at large: LAN from the use of electricity represent exposures in the human environment not previously encountered in human evolution. These LAN exposures are pervasive in industrialized societies, and any adverse health effects from them could result in considerable consequences for the population. In particular, exposures of pregnant women to LAN that might result in increased estrogen exposure in utero to their child may lead to increased tissue mass and increased lifetime risk of breast cancermore » of the child.« less

Response of fish population dynamics to mitigation activities in a large regulated river

USGS Publications Warehouse

Watkins, Carson J.; Ross, Tyler J.; Quist, Michael C.; Hardy, Ryan S.

2017-01-01

Extensive water development in large rivers has precipitated many negative ecological effects on native fish populations. Mitigation for such development often focuses on restoring biological integrity through remediation of the physical and chemical properties of regulated rivers. However, evaluating and defining the success of those programs can be difficult. We modeled the influence of mitigation-related environmental factors on growth and recruitment of two ecologically important native fish species (Largescale Sucker Catostomus macrocheilus and Mountain Whitefish Prosopium williamsoni) in the Kootenai River, Idaho. Artificial nutrient (phosphorus) addition best predicted the variability in annual growth of both species. Nutrient addition was positively related to Largescale Sucker growth but negatively related to Mountain Whitefish growth. The best model explained 82% of the annual variability in incremental growth for Largescale Suckers and 61% of the annual variability for Mountain Whitefish. Year-class strength of Largescale Suckers was not closely related to any of the environmental variables evaluated; however, year-class strength of Mountain Whitefish was closely associated with nutrient addition, discharge, and temperature. Most research has focused on biotic assemblages to evaluate the effects of mitigation activities on fishes, but there is an increased need to identify the influence of rehabilitation activities on fish population dynamics within those assemblages. Here, we demonstrate how fish growth can serve as an indicator of rehabilitation success in a highly regulated large river. Future fish restoration projects can likely benefit from a change in scope and from consideration of an evaluation framework involving the response of population rate functions to mitigation.

The functional spectrum of low-frequency coding variation.

PubMed

Marth, Gabor T; Yu, Fuli; Indap, Amit R; Garimella, Kiran; Gravel, Simon; Leong, Wen Fung; Tyler-Smith, Chris; Bainbridge, Matthew; Blackwell, Tom; Zheng-Bradley, Xiangqun; Chen, Yuan; Challis, Danny; Clarke, Laura; Ball, Edward V; Cibulskis, Kristian; Cooper, David N; Fulton, Bob; Hartl, Chris; Koboldt, Dan; Muzny, Donna; Smith, Richard; Sougnez, Carrie; Stewart, Chip; Ward, Alistair; Yu, Jin; Xue, Yali; Altshuler, David; Bustamante, Carlos D; Clark, Andrew G; Daly, Mark; DePristo, Mark; Flicek, Paul; Gabriel, Stacey; Mardis, Elaine; Palotie, Aarno; Gibbs, Richard

2011-09-14

Rare coding variants constitute an important class of human genetic variation, but are underrepresented in current databases that are based on small population samples. Recent studies show that variants altering amino acid sequence and protein function are enriched at low variant allele frequency, 2 to 5%, but because of insufficient sample size it is not clear if the same trend holds for rare variants below 1% allele frequency. The 1000 Genomes Exon Pilot Project has collected deep-coverage exon-capture data in roughly 1,000 human genes, for nearly 700 samples. Although medical whole-exome projects are currently afoot, this is still the deepest reported sampling of a large number of human genes with next-generation technologies. According to the goals of the 1000 Genomes Project, we created effective informatics pipelines to process and analyze the data, and discovered 12,758 exonic SNPs, 70% of them novel, and 74% below 1% allele frequency in the seven population samples we examined. Our analysis confirms that coding variants below 1% allele frequency show increased population-specificity and are enriched for functional variants. This study represents a large step toward detecting and interpreting low frequency coding variation, clearly lays out technical steps for effective analysis of DNA capture data, and articulates functional and population properties of this important class of genetic variation.

Major QTLs for critical photoperiod and vernalization underlie extensive variation in flowering in the Mimulus guttatus species complex.

PubMed

Friedman, Jannice; Willis, John H

2013-07-01

Species with extensive ranges experience highly variable environments with respect to temperature, light and soil moisture. Synchronizing the transition from vegetative to floral growth is important to employ favorable conditions for reproduction. Optimal timing of this transition might be different for semelparous annual plants and iteroparous perennial plants. We studied variation in the critical photoperiod necessary for floral induction and the requirement for a period of cold-chilling (vernalization) in 46 populations of annuals and perennials in the Mimulus guttatus species complex. We then examined critical photoperiod and vernalization QTLs in growth chambers using F(2) progeny from annual and perennial parents that differed in their requirements for flowering. We identify extensive variation in critical photoperiod, with most annual populations requiring substantially shorter day lengths to initiate flowering than perennial populations. We discover a novel type of vernalization requirement in perennial populations that is contingent on plants experiencing short days first. QTL analyses identify two large-effect QTLs which influence critical photoperiod. In two separate vernalization experiments we discover each set of crosses contain different large-effect QTLs for vernalization. Mimulus guttatus harbors extensive variation in critical photoperiod and vernalization that may be a consequence of local adaptation. © 2013 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2013 New Phytologist Trust.

The past as prelude to the future for understanding 21st-century climate effects on Rocky Mountain Trout

USGS Publications Warehouse

Isaak, Daniel J.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Todd, Andrew S.; Al-chokhachy, Robert; Roberts, James; Kershner, Jeffrey L.; Fausch, Kurt D.; Hostetler, Steven W.

2012-01-01

Bioclimatic models predict large reductions in native trout across the Rocky Mountains in the 21st century but lack details about how changes will occur. Through five case histories across the region, we explore how a changing climate has been affecting streams and the potential consequences for trout. Monitoring records show trends in temperature and hydrographs consistent with a warming climate in recent decades. Biological implications include upstream shifts in thermal habitats, risk of egg scour, increased wildfire disturbances, and declining summer habitat volumes. The importance of these factors depends on the context, but temperature increases are most relevant where population boundaries are mediated by thermal constraints. Summer flow declines and wildfires will be important where trout populations are fragmented and constrained to small refugia. A critical information gap is evidence documenting how populations are adjusting to long-term habitat trends, so biological monitoring is a priority. Biological, temperature, and discharge data from monitoring networks could be used to develop accurate vulnerability assessments that provide information regarding where conservation actions would best improve population resilience. Even with better information, future uncertainties will remain large due to unknowns regarding Earth's ultimate warming trajectory and how effects translate across scales. Maintaining or increasing the size of habitats could provide a buffer against these uncertainties.

Effects of Isolation by Continental Islands in the Seto Inland Sea, Japan, on Genetic Diversity of the Large Japanese Field Mouse, Apodemus speciosus (Rodentia: Muridae), Inferred from the Mitochondrial Dloop Region.

PubMed

Sato, Jun J; Tasaka, Yurina; Tasaka, Ryoya; Gunji, Kentaro; Yamamoto, Yuya; Takada, Yasushi; Uematsu, Yasushi; Sakai, Eiichi; Tateishi, Takashi; Yamaguchi, Yasunori

2017-04-01

To study the effects of post-glacial isolation by islands on population genetic diversity and differentiation of the large Japanese field mouse, Apodemus speciosus, we examined partial nucleotide sequences of the mitochondrial Dloop region (ca. 300 bp) in 231 individuals collected from islands in the Seto Inland Sea and adjacent regions on Honshu and Shikoku Islands in the western part of the Japanese archipelago. Molecular phylogenetic and network analyses showed that haplotypes in each island tended to form monophyletic groups, while those in Honshu and Shikoku (the major Japanese islands) showed scattered relationships and were connected with island haplotypes. These observations suggest that a set of Honshu and Shikoku haplotypes became the ancestral lineages of the island population. No gene flow was detected among island populations, indicating that independent evolution occurred on each island, without the influence of human activities, since the establishment of the islands in the Holocene. Population genetic diversities on each island were lower than those on Honshu and Shikoku. Comparison between genetic diversity and island area size showed positive correlations and supported the suggestion that genetic drift is a major factor that shaped the current haplotype constitution of the islands in the Seto Inland Sea.

Integrating environmental and genetic effects to predict responses of tree populations to climate.

PubMed

Wang, Tongli; O'Neill, Gregory A; Aitken, Sally N

2010-01-01

Climate is a major environmental factor affecting the phenotype of trees and is also a critical agent of natural selection that has molded among-population genetic variation. Population response functions describe the environmental effect of planting site climates on the performance of a single population, whereas transfer functions describe among-population genetic variation molded by natural selection for climate. Although these approaches are widely used to predict the responses of trees to climate change, both have limitations. We present a novel approach that integrates both genetic and environmental effects into a single "universal response function" (URF) to better predict the influence of climate on phenotypes. Using a large lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud.) field transplant experiment composed of 140 populations planted on 62 sites to demonstrate the methodology, we show that the URF makes full use of data from provenance trials to: (1) improve predictions of climate change impacts on phenotypes; (2) reduce the size and cost of future provenance trials without compromising predictive power; (3) more fully exploit existing, less comprehensive provenance tests; (4) quantify and compare environmental and genetic effects of climate on population performance; and (5) predict the performance of any population growing in any climate. Finally, we discuss how the last attribute allows the URF to be used as a mechanistic model to predict population and species ranges for the future and to guide assisted migration of seed for reforestation, restoration, or afforestation and genetic conservation in a changing climate.

Measurements of spatial population synchrony: influence of time series transformations.

PubMed

Chevalier, Mathieu; Laffaille, Pascal; Ferdy, Jean-Baptiste; Grenouillet, Gaël

2015-09-01

Two mechanisms have been proposed to explain spatial population synchrony: dispersal among populations, and the spatial correlation of density-independent factors (the "Moran effect"). To identify which of these two mechanisms is driving spatial population synchrony, time series transformations (TSTs) of abundance data have been used to remove the signature of one mechanism, and highlight the effect of the other. However, several issues with TSTs remain, and to date no consensus has emerged about how population time series should be handled in synchrony studies. Here, by using 3131 time series involving 34 fish species found in French rivers, we computed several metrics commonly used in synchrony studies to determine whether a large-scale climatic factor (temperature) influenced fish population dynamics at the regional scale, and to test the effect of three commonly used TSTs (detrending, prewhitening and a combination of both) on these metrics. We also tested whether the influence of TSTs on time series and population synchrony levels was related to the features of the time series using both empirical and simulated time series. For several species, and regardless of the TST used, we evidenced a Moran effect on freshwater fish populations. However, these results were globally biased downward by TSTs which reduced our ability to detect significant signals. Depending on the species and the features of the time series, we found that TSTs could lead to contradictory results, regardless of the metric considered. Finally, we suggest guidelines on how population time series should be processed in synchrony studies.

External human factors in incident management team decisionmaking and their effect on large fire suppression expenditures

Treesearch

Janie Canton-Tompson; Krista M. Gebert; Brooke Thompson; Greg Jones; David Calkin; Geoff Donovan

2008-01-01

Large wildland fires are complex, costly events influenced by a vast array of physical, climatic, and social factors. Changing climate, fuel buildup due to past suppression, and increasing populations in the wildland-urban interface have all been blamed for the extreme fire seasons and rising suppression expenditures of recent years. With each high-cost year comes a...

Comparing Effects of Cluster-Coupled Patterns on Opinion Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yun; Si, Xia-Meng; Zhang, Yan-Chao

2012-07-01

Community structure is another important feature besides small-world and scale-free property of complex networks. Communities can be coupled through specific fixed links between nodes, or occasional encounter behavior. We introduce a model for opinion evolution with multiple cluster-coupled patterns, in which the interconnectivity denotes the coupled degree of communities by fixed links, and encounter frequency controls the coupled degree of communities by encounter behaviors. Considering the complicated cognitive system of people, the CODA (continuous opinions and discrete actions) update rules are used to mimic how people update their decisions after interacting with someone. It is shown that, large interconnectivity and encounter frequency both can promote consensus, reduce competition between communities and propagate some opinion successfully across the whole population. Encounter frequency is better than interconnectivity at facilitating the consensus of decisions. When the degree of social cohesion is same, small interconnectivity has better effects on lessening the competence between communities than small encounter frequency does, while large encounter frequency can make the greater degree of agreement across the whole populations than large interconnectivity can.

Estimating inbreeding in large, semi-isolated populations: effects of varying generation lengths and of migration.

PubMed

Pattison, J E

2007-01-01

The purpose of the study reported here was to investigate two important assumptions used in a recently reported new method of estimating inbreeding in large, relatively isolated populations over historic times. The method, based on modeling the genealogical "paradox," produces values of Pearl's coefficients, Z, a measure of inbreeding or genealogical coalescence, as a function of time. In this study, the effects on inbreeding of two important assumptions made in earlier studies, namely those of using a constant generation length and of ignoring migration, have been investigated for the population of Britain. First, by relating the median age of women at childbirth to the development level of various societies, the variation of the generation lengths for different periods in historic Britain were estimated. Values of Z for two types of varying generation lengths were then calculated and compared with the case of constant generation length. Second, the population curve for Britain used in earlier studies was modified to obtain the subpopulation at any time during the past two millennia that was descended from the pre-Roman British Celts. Values of Z for the case with migration were then calculated and compared with the case for no migration. It is shown that these two assumptions may be taken into account if and when required. Both the effect of a varying generation length and the effect of migration on Z were found to be 20-40%, when no known value of inbreeding was used, and 2-5%, when a known value of inbreeding was used.

MHC variability supports dog domestication from a large number of wolves: high diversity in Asia.

PubMed

Niskanen, A K; Hagström, E; Lohi, H; Ruokonen, M; Esparza-Salas, R; Aspi, J; Savolainen, P

2013-01-01

The process of dog domestication is still somewhat unresolved. Earlier studies indicate that domestic dogs from all over the world have a common origin in Asia. So far, major histocompatibility complex (MHC) diversity has not been studied in detail in Asian dogs, although high levels of genetic diversity are expected at the domestication locality. We sequenced the second exon of the canine MHC gene DLA-DRB1 from 128 Asian dogs and compared our data with a previously published large data set of MHC alleles, mostly from European dogs. Our results show that Asian dogs have a higher MHC diversity than European dogs. We also estimated that there is only a small probability that new alleles have arisen by mutation since domestication. Based on the assumption that all of the currently known 102 DLA-DRB1 alleles come from the founding wolf population, we simulated the number of founding wolf individuals. Our simulations indicate an effective population size of at least 500 founding wolves, suggesting that the founding wolf population was large or that backcrossing has taken place.

MHC variability supports dog domestication from a large number of wolves: high diversity in Asia

PubMed Central

Niskanen, A K; Hagström, E; Lohi, H; Ruokonen, M; Esparza-Salas, R; Aspi, J; Savolainen, P

2013-01-01

The process of dog domestication is still somewhat unresolved. Earlier studies indicate that domestic dogs from all over the world have a common origin in Asia. So far, major histocompatibility complex (MHC) diversity has not been studied in detail in Asian dogs, although high levels of genetic diversity are expected at the domestication locality. We sequenced the second exon of the canine MHC gene DLA–DRB1 from 128 Asian dogs and compared our data with a previously published large data set of MHC alleles, mostly from European dogs. Our results show that Asian dogs have a higher MHC diversity than European dogs. We also estimated that there is only a small probability that new alleles have arisen by mutation since domestication. Based on the assumption that all of the currently known 102 DLA–DRB1 alleles come from the founding wolf population, we simulated the number of founding wolf individuals. Our simulations indicate an effective population size of at least 500 founding wolves, suggesting that the founding wolf population was large or that backcrossing has taken place. PMID:23073392

Effect of small versus large clusters of fish school on the yield of a purse-seine small pelagic fishery including a marine protected area.

PubMed

Hieu, Nguyen Trong; Brochier, Timothée; Tri, Nguyen-Huu; Auger, Pierre; Brehmer, Patrice

2014-09-01

We consider a fishery model with two sites: (1) a marine protected area (MPA) where fishing is prohibited and (2) an area where the fish population is harvested. We assume that fish can migrate from MPA to fishing area at a very fast time scale and fish spatial organisation can change from small to large clusters of school at a fast time scale. The growth of the fish population and the catch are assumed to occur at a slow time scale. The complete model is a system of five ordinary differential equations with three time scales. We take advantage of the time scales using aggregation of variables methods to derive a reduced model governing the total fish density and fishing effort at the slow time scale. We analyze this aggregated model and show that under some conditions, there exists an equilibrium corresponding to a sustainable fishery. Our results suggest that in small pelagic fisheries the yield is maximum for a fish population distributed among both small and large clusters of school.

Modeling the impacts of hunting on the population dynamics of red howler monkeys (Alouatta seniculus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiederholt, Ruscena; Fernandez-Duque, Eduardo; Diefenbach, Duane R.; Rudran, Rasanayagam

2010-01-01

Overexploitation of wildlife populations occurs across the humid tropics and is a significant threat to the long-term survival of large-bodied primates. To investigate the impacts of hunting on primates and ways to mitigate them, we developed a spatially explicit, individual-based model for a landscape that included hunted and un-hunted areas. We used the large-bodied neotropical red howler monkey (Alouatta seniculus) as our case study species because its life history characteristics make it vulnerable to hunting. We modeled the influence of different rates of harvest and proportions of landscape dedicated to un-hunted reserves on population persistence, population size, social dynamics, and hunting yields of red howler monkeys. In most scenarios, the un-hunted populations maintained a constant density regardless of hunting pressure elsewhere, and allowed the overall population to persist. Therefore, the overall population was quite resilient to extinction; only in scenarios without any un-hunted areas did the population go extinct. However, the total and hunted populations did experience large declines over 100 years under moderate and high hunting pressure. In addition, when reserve area decreased, population losses and losses per unit area increased disproportionately. Furthermore, hunting disrupted the social structure of troops. The number of male turnovers and infanticides increased in hunted populations, while birth rates decreased and exacerbated population losses due to hunting. Finally, our results indicated that when more than 55% of the landscape was harvested at high (30%) rates, hunting yields, as measured by kilograms of biomass, were less than those obtained from moderate harvest rates. Additionally, hunting yields, expressed as the number of individuals hunted/year/km2, increased in proximity to un-hunted areas, and suggested that dispersal from un-hunted areas may have contributed to hunting sustainability. These results indicate that un-hunted areas serve to enhance hunting yields, population size, and population persistence in hunted landscapes. Therefore, spatial regulation of hunting via a reserve system may be an effective management strategy for sustainable hunting, and we recommend it because it may also be more feasible to implement than harvest quotas or restrictions on season length.

The effects of hurricanes on birds, with special reference to Caribbean islands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiley, J.W.; Wunderle, J.M.

1993-01-01

Cyclonic storms, variously called typhoons, cyclones, or hurricanes (henceforth, hurricanes), are common in many parts of the world, where their frequent occurrence can have both direct and indirect effects on bird populations. Direct effects of hurricanes include mortality from exposure to hurricane winds, rains, and storm surges, and geographic displacement of individuals by storm winds. Indirect effects become apparent in the storm's aftermath and include loss of food supplies or foraging substrates; loss of nests and nest or roost sites; increased vulnerability to predation; microclimate changes; and increased conflict with humans. The short-term response of bird populations to hurricane damage, before changes in plant succession, includes shifts in diet, foraging sites or habitats, and reproductive changes. Bird populations may show long-term responses to changes in plant succession as second-growth vegetation increases in storm-damaged old-growth forests. The greatest stress of a hurricane to most upland terrestrial bird populations occurs after its passage rather than during its impact. The most important effect of a hurricane is the destruction of vegetation, which secondarily affects wildlife in the storm's aftermath. The most vulnerable terrestrial wildlife populations have a diet of nectar, fruit, or seeds; nest, roost, or forage on large old trees; require a closed forest canopy; have special microclimate requirements and/or live in a habitat in which vegetation has a slow recovery rate. Small populations with these traits are at greatest risk to hurricane-induced extinction, particularly if they exist in small isolated habitat fragments. Recovery of avian populations from hurricane effects is partially dependent on the extent and degree of vegetation damage as well as its rate of recovery. Also, the reproductive rate of the remnant local population and recruitment from undisturbed habitat patches influence the rate at which wildlife populations recover from damage.

The distribution of nuclear genetic variation and historical demography of sea otters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aguilar, A.; Jessup, David A.; Estes, J.; Garza, J.C.

2008-01-01

The amount and distribution of population genetic variation is crucial information for the design of effective conservation strategies for endangered species and can also be used to provide inference about demographic processes and patterns of migration. Here, we describe variation at a large number of nuclear genes in sea otters Enhydra lutris ssp. We surveyed 14 variable microsatellite loci and two genes of the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) in up to 350 California sea otters Enhydra lutris nereis, which represents ∼10% of the subspecies' population, and 46 otters from two Alaskan sites. We utilized methods for detecting past reductions in effective population size to examine the effects of near extinction from the fur trade. Summary statistic tests largely failed to find a signal of a recent population size reduction (within the past 200 years), but a Bayesian method found a signal of a strong reduction over a longer time scale (up to 500 years ago). These results indicate that the reduction in size began long enough ago that much genetic variation was lost before the 19th century fur trade. A comparison of geographic distance and pairwise relatedness for individual otters found no evidence of kin-based spatial clustering for either gender. This indicates that there is no population structure, due to extended family groups, within the California population. A survey of population genetic variation found that two of the MHC genes, DQB and DRB, had two alleles present and one of the genes, DRA, was monomorphic in otters. This contrasts with other mammals, where they are often the most variable coding genes known. Genetic variation in the sea otter is among the lowest observed for a mammal and raises concerns about the long-term viability of the species, particularly in the face of future environmental changes.

The QTN program and the alleles that matter for evolution: all that's gold does not glitter.

PubMed

Rockman, Matthew V

2012-01-01

The search for the alleles that matter, the quantitative trait nucleotides (QTNs) that underlie heritable variation within populations and divergence among them, is a popular pursuit. But what is the question to which QTNs are the answer? Although their pursuit is often invoked as a means of addressing the molecular basis of phenotypic evolution or of estimating the roles of evolutionary forces, the QTNs that are accessible to experimentalists, QTNs of relatively large effect, may be uninformative about these issues if large-effect variants are unrepresentative of the alleles that matter. Although 20th century evolutionary biology generally viewed large-effect variants as atypical, the field has recently undergone a quiet realignment toward a view of readily discoverable large-effect alleles as the primary molecular substrates for evolution. I argue that neither theory nor data justify this realignment. Models and experimental findings covering broad swaths of evolutionary phenomena suggest that evolution often acts via large numbers of small-effect polygenes, individually undetectable. Moreover, these small-effect variants are different in kind, at the molecular level, from the large-effect alleles accessible to experimentalists. Although discoverable QTNs address some fundamental evolutionary questions, they are essentially misleading about many others. © 2011 The Author(s). Evolution © 2011 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

INDIRECT UPSTREAM EFFECTS OF DAMS: CONSEQUENCES OF MIGRATORY CONSUMER EXTIRPATION IN PUERTO RICO

Treesearch

EFFIE A. GREATHOUSE; CATHERINE M. PRINGLE; WILLIAM H. MCDOWELL; JEFF G. HOLMQUIST

2006-01-01

Large dams degrade the integrity of a wide variety of ecosystems, yet direct downstream effects of dams have received the most attention from ecosystem managers and researchers. We investigated indirect upstream effects of dams resulting from decimation of migratory freshwater shrimp and fish populations in Puerto Rico, USA, in both high- and low-gradient streams. In...

The role of propagule pressure, genetic diversity and microsite availability for Senecio vernalis invasion.

PubMed

Erfmeier, Alexandra; Hantsch, Lydia; Bruelheide, Helge

2013-01-01

Genetic diversity is supposed to support the colonization success of expanding species, in particular in situations where microsite availability is constrained. Addressing the role of genetic diversity in plant invasion experimentally requires its manipulation independent of propagule pressure. To assess the relative importance of these components for the invasion of Senecio vernalis, we created propagule mixtures of four levels of genotype diversity by combining seeds across remote populations, across proximate populations, within single populations and within seed families. In a first container experiment with constant Festuca rupicola density as matrix, genotype diversity was crossed with three levels of seed density. In a second experiment, we tested for effects of establishment limitation and genotype diversity by manipulating Festuca densities. Increasing genetic diversity had no effects on abundance and biomass of S. vernalis but positively affected the proportion of large individuals to small individuals. Mixtures composed from proximate populations had a significantly higher proportion of large individuals than mixtures composed from within seed families only. High propagule pressure increased emergence and establishment of S. vernalis but had no effect on individual growth performance. Establishment was favoured in containers with Festuca, but performance of surviving seedlings was higher in open soil treatments. For S. vernalis invasion, we found a shift in driving factors from density dependence to effects of genetic diversity across life stages. While initial abundance was mostly linked to the amount of seed input, genetic diversity, in contrast, affected later stages of colonization probably via sampling effects and seemed to contribute to filtering the genotypes that finally grew up. In consequence, when disentangling the mechanistic relationships of genetic diversity, seed density and microsite limitation in colonization of invasive plants, a clear differentiation between initial emergence and subsequent survival to juvenile and adult stages is required.

Effective size of a wild salmonid population is greatly reduced by hatchery supplementation

PubMed Central

Christie, M R; Marine, M L; French, R A; Waples, R S; Blouin, M S

2012-01-01

Many declining and commercially important populations are supplemented with captive-born individuals that are intentionally released into the wild. These supplementation programs often create large numbers of offspring from relatively few breeding adults, which can have substantial population-level effects. We examined the genetic effects of supplementation on a wild population of steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss) from the Hood River, Oregon, by matching 12 run-years of hatchery steelhead back to their broodstock parents. We show that the effective number of breeders producing the hatchery fish (broodstock parents; Nb) was quite small (harmonic mean Nb=25 fish per brood-year vs 373 for wild fish), and was exacerbated by a high variance in broodstock reproductive success among individuals within years. The low Nb caused hatchery fish to have decreased allelic richness, increased average relatedness, more loci in linkage disequilibrium and substantial levels of genetic drift in comparison with their wild-born counterparts. We also documented a substantial Ryman–Laikre effect whereby the additional hatchery fish doubled the total number of adult fish on the spawning grounds each year, but cut the effective population size of the total population (wild and hatchery fish combined) by nearly two-thirds. We further demonstrate that the Ryman–Laikre effect is most severe in this population when (1) >10% of fish allowed onto spawning grounds are from hatcheries and (2) the hatchery fish have high reproductive success in the wild. These results emphasize the trade-offs that arise when supplementation programs attempt to balance disparate goals (increasing production while maintaining genetic diversity and fitness). PMID:22805657

Physical Health Effects of Intimate Partner Abuse

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sillito, Carrie LeFevre

2012-01-01

Although intimate partner violence has been recognized as both a social problem and health issue, the extent to which it is a health issue for both males and females in the general population is largely unknown. This longitudinal research uses data from the National Survey of Family and Households (1987-2003). Random effects logistic regression…

Effect of aircraft noise on the equilibrium of airport residents: Longitudinal study around Roissy, phase 3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Francois, J.

1981-01-01

The effects of airplane noise on the mental equilibrium of residents living near airports are discussed, and based on population sample surveys involving health questionnaires and self-administered personality tests. Progressive changes were observed on the part of residents living near a large airport.

Dullgren extraction of soil mites (Acarina): Effect of refrigeration time on extraction efficiency

Treesearch

Michelle B. Lakly; D.A. Crossley

2000-01-01

Soil microarthropods constitute one of the most species rich communities in . forest ecosystems (Crossley & Blair, 1991). The effects of soil fauna in these systems on decomposition rates, nutrient regeneration and soil structure have been well documented; however, dependable estimates of population size and community structure largely depend upon adequate sampling...

Lake Diatoms as Indicators of Land Use Effects, Changing Environmental Conditions, and the Effectiveness of Management Practices

EPA Science Inventory

Lakes continue to face escalating pressures associated with land cover change and growing human populations. The U.S. EPA National Lakes Assessment, which sampled more than 1000 lakes in a probabilistic survey, was the first large scale effort to characterize the condition of lak...

Cost Analysis in Telemedicine: Empirical Evidence From Sites in Arizona

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

de la Torre, Adela; Hernandez-Rodriguez, Clemente; Garcia, Lorena

2004-01-01

Support of telemedicine for largely rural and ethnically diverse populations is premised on expectations that it increases opportunities for appropriate and timely medical services, and that it improves cost-effective service delivery. To understand the cost-effectiveness of telemedicine in 8 small and/or rural sites in Arizona. A cost analysis…

Imputation-Based Meta-Analysis of Severe Malaria in Three African Populations

PubMed Central

Band, Gavin; Le, Quang Si; Jostins, Luke; Pirinen, Matti; Kivinen, Katja; Jallow, Muminatou; Sisay-Joof, Fatoumatta; Bojang, Kalifa; Pinder, Margaret; Sirugo, Giorgio; Conway, David J.; Nyirongo, Vysaul; Kachala, David; Molyneux, Malcolm; Taylor, Terrie; Ndila, Carolyne; Peshu, Norbert; Marsh, Kevin; Williams, Thomas N.; Alcock, Daniel; Andrews, Robert; Edkins, Sarah; Gray, Emma; Hubbart, Christina; Jeffreys, Anna; Rowlands, Kate; Schuldt, Kathrin; Clark, Taane G.; Small, Kerrin S.; Teo, Yik Ying; Kwiatkowski, Dominic P.; Rockett, Kirk A.; Barrett, Jeffrey C.; Spencer, Chris C. A.

2013-01-01

Combining data from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) conducted at different locations, using genotype imputation and fixed-effects meta-analysis, has been a powerful approach for dissecting complex disease genetics in populations of European ancestry. Here we investigate the feasibility of applying the same approach in Africa, where genetic diversity, both within and between populations, is far more extensive. We analyse genome-wide data from approximately 5,000 individuals with severe malaria and 7,000 population controls from three different locations in Africa. Our results show that the standard approach is well powered to detect known malaria susceptibility loci when sample sizes are large, and that modern methods for association analysis can control the potential confounding effects of population structure. We show that pattern of association around the haemoglobin S allele differs substantially across populations due to differences in haplotype structure. Motivated by these observations we consider new approaches to association analysis that might prove valuable for multicentre GWAS in Africa: we relax the assumptions of SNP–based fixed effect analysis; we apply Bayesian approaches to allow for heterogeneity in the effect of an allele on risk across studies; and we introduce a region-based test to allow for heterogeneity in the location of causal alleles. PMID:23717212

Modeling the effect of transient populations on epidemics in Washington DC.

PubMed

Parikh, Nidhi; Youssef, Mina; Swarup, Samarth; Eubank, Stephen

2013-11-06

Large numbers of transients visit big cities, where they come into contact with many people at crowded areas. However, epidemiological studies have not paid much attention to the role of this subpopulation in disease spread. We evaluate the effect of transients on epidemics by extending a synthetic population model for the Washington DC metro area to include leisure and business travelers. A synthetic population is obtained by combining multiple data sources to build a detailed minute-by-minute simulation of population interaction resulting in a contact network. We simulate an influenza-like illness over the contact network to evaluate the effects of transients on the number of infected residents. We find that there are significantly more infections when transients are considered. Since much population mixing happens at major tourism locations, we evaluate two targeted interventions: closing museums and promoting healthy behavior (such as the use of hand sanitizers, covering coughs, etc.) at museums. Surprisingly, closing museums has no beneficial effect. However, promoting healthy behavior at the museums can both reduce and delay the epidemic peak. We analytically derive the reproductive number and perform stability analysis using an ODE-based model.

Deleterious mutations and selection for sex in finite diploid populations.

PubMed

Roze, Denis; Michod, Richard E

2010-04-01

In diploid populations, indirect benefits of sex may stem from segregation and recombination. Although it has been recognized that finite population size is an important component of selection for recombination, its effects on selection for segregation have been somewhat less studied. In this article, we develop analytical two- and three-locus models to study the effect of recurrent deleterious mutations on a modifier gene increasing sex, in a finite diploid population. The model also incorporates effects of mitotic recombination, causing loss of heterozygosity (LOH). Predictions are tested using multilocus simulations representing deleterious mutations occurring at a large number of loci. The model and simulations show that excess of heterozygosity generated by finite population size is an important component of selection for sex, favoring segregation when deleterious alleles are nearly additive to dominant. Furthermore, sex tends to break correlations in homozygosity among selected loci, which disfavors sex when deleterious alleles are either recessive or dominant. As a result, we find that it is difficult to maintain costly sex when deleterious alleles are recessive. LOH tends to favor sex when deleterious mutations are recessive, but the effect is relatively weak for rates of LOH corresponding to current estimates (of the order 10(-4)-10(-5)).

Modeling the effect of transient populations on epidemics in Washington DC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parikh, Nidhi; Youssef, Mina; Swarup, Samarth; Eubank, Stephen

2013-11-01

Large numbers of transients visit big cities, where they come into contact with many people at crowded areas. However, epidemiological studies have not paid much attention to the role of this subpopulation in disease spread. We evaluate the effect of transients on epidemics by extending a synthetic population model for the Washington DC metro area to include leisure and business travelers. A synthetic population is obtained by combining multiple data sources to build a detailed minute-by-minute simulation of population interaction resulting in a contact network. We simulate an influenza-like illness over the contact network to evaluate the effects of transients on the number of infected residents. We find that there are significantly more infections when transients are considered. Since much population mixing happens at major tourism locations, we evaluate two targeted interventions: closing museums and promoting healthy behavior (such as the use of hand sanitizers, covering coughs, etc.) at museums. Surprisingly, closing museums has no beneficial effect. However, promoting healthy behavior at the museums can both reduce and delay the epidemic peak. We analytically derive the reproductive number and perform stability analysis using an ODE-based model.

Metapopulation effective size and conservation genetic goals for the Fennoscandian wolf (Canis lupus) population

PubMed Central

Laikre, L; Olsson, F; Jansson, E; Hössjer, O; Ryman, N

2016-01-01

The Scandinavian wolf population descends from only five individuals, is isolated, highly inbred and exhibits inbreeding depression. To meet international conservation goals, suggestions include managing subdivided wolf populations over Fennoscandia as a metapopulation; a genetically effective population size of Ne⩾500, in line with the widely accepted long-term genetic viability target, might be attainable with gene flow among subpopulations of Scandinavia, Finland and Russian parts of Fennoscandia. Analytical means for modeling Ne of subdivided populations under such non-idealized situations have been missing, but we recently developed new mathematical methods for exploring inbreeding dynamics and effective population size of complex metapopulations. We apply this theory to the Fennoscandian wolves using empirical estimates of demographic parameters. We suggest that the long-term conservation genetic target for metapopulations should imply that inbreeding rates in the total system and in the separate subpopulations should not exceed Δf=0.001. This implies a meta-Ne of NeMeta⩾500 and a realized effective size of each subpopulation of NeRx⩾500. With current local effective population sizes and one migrant per generation, as recommended by management guidelines, the meta-Ne that can be reached is ~250. Unidirectional gene flow from Finland to Scandinavia reduces meta-Ne to ~130. Our results indicate that both local subpopulation effective sizes and migration among subpopulations must increase substantially from current levels to meet the conservation target. Alternatively, immigration from a large (Ne⩾500) population in northwestern Russia could support the Fennoscandian metapopulation, but immigration must be substantial (5–10 effective immigrants per generation) and migration among Fennoscandian subpopulations must nevertheless increase. PMID:27328654

Geographic pattern of genetic variation in the European globeflower Trollius europaeus L. (Ranunculaceae) inferred from amplified fragment length polymorphism markers.

PubMed

Despres, Laurence; Loriot, Sandrine; Gaudeul, Myriam

2002-11-01

The distribution of genetic variation and the phylogenetic relationships between 18 populations of the arctic-alpine plant Trollius europaeus were analysed in three main regions (Alps, Pyrenees and Fennoscandia) by using dominant AFLP markers. Analysis of molecular variance revealed that most of the genetic variability was found within populations (64%), although variation among regions (17%) and among populations within regions (19%) was highly significant (P < 0.001). Accordingly, the global fixation index FST averaged over loci was high (0.39). The among-population differentiation indicates restricted gene flow, congruent with limited dispersal of specific globeflower's pollinating flies (Chiastocheta spp.). Within-population diversity levels were significantly higher in the Alps (mean Nei's expected heterozygosity HE = 0.229) than in the Pyrenees (HE= 0.197) or in Fennoscandia (HE = 0.158). This finding is congruent with the species-richness of the associated flies, which is maximum in the Alps. We discuss the processes involved in shaping observed patterns of genetic diversity within and among T. europaeus populations. Genetic drift is the major factor acting on the small Pyrenean populations at the southern edge of T. europaeus distribution, while large Fennoscandian populations result probably from a founder effect followed by demographic expansion. The Alpine populations represent moderately fragmented relics of large southern ancestral populations. The patterns of genetic variability observed in the host plant support the hypothesis of sympatric speciation in associated flies, rather than recurrent allopatric speciations.

Density of large snags and logs in northern Arizona mixed-conifer and ponderosa pine forests

Treesearch

Joseph L. Ganey; Benjamin J. Bird; L. Scott Baggett; Jeffrey S. Jenness

2015-01-01

Large snags and logs provide important biological legacies and resources for native wildlife, yet data on populations of large snags and logs and factors influencing those populations are sparse. We monitored populations of large snags and logs in mixed-conifer and ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests in northern Arizona from 1997 through 2012. We modeled density...

Dependency of the effect of a vascular disrupting agent on sensitivity to tirapazamine and gamma-ray irradiation upon the timing of its administration and tumor size, with reference to the effect on intratumor quiescent cells.

PubMed

Masunaga, Shin-ichiro; Nagasawa, Hideko; Nagata, Kenji; Suzuki, Minoru; Uto, Yoshihiro; Hori, Hitoshi; Kinashi, Yuko; Ono, Koji

2007-01-01

The effect of vascular disrupting agent ZD6126 with time on the sensitivity to the hypoxic cytotoxin tirapazamine (TPZ) and gamma-rays was examined in large and small solid tumors. Mice bearing SCC VII tumors 1 or 1.5 cm in diameter received 5-bromo-2'-deoxyuridine (BrdU) continuously to label all proliferating (P) cells, followed by injection with or without ZD6126. In the absence of ZD6126, or 1 or 24 h following ZD6126 injection, the response to TPZ or gamma-ray irradiation in quiescent (Q) cells was assessed in terms of induced micronucleus (MN) frequency using immunofluorescence staining for BrdU. The MN frequency in the total cell population was determined from the tumors not pretreated with BrdU. Another group of tumor-bearing mice received a series of test doses of gamma-rays while alive or after tumor clamping to obtain hypoxic fractions (HFs) in the tumors. One hour after ZD6126 injection, both small and large tumors showed lower and higher sensitivity, and 24 h after, higher and lower sensitivity, to gamma-rays and TPZ, respectively, than the tumors not treated with ZD6126. Further, they showed larger and smaller HFs 1 and 24 h after ZD6126 injection, respectively. Without ZD6126 and 1 h after injection, small tumors were more sensitive to gamma-rays and less sensitive to TPZ than large tumors, probably due to the smaller HFs than large tumors. In contrast, 24 h after the injection, these differences in sensitivity and the HF between small and large tumors were reversed. The changes in sensitivity and the size of the HF were more marked in the total cell population than in Q cells. Following ZD6126 treatment, in terms of tumor control, especially large tumors and total tumor cell population, administering TPZ 1 h later and gamma-ray irradiation 24 h later were effective. Intratumor physiologic factors such as the size of the HF, depending on the time after ZD6126 injection, have to be taken into account when combining another treatment with ZD6126.

Reduced fine-scale spatial genetic structure in grazed populations of Dianthus carthusianorum

PubMed Central

Rico, Y; Wagner, H H

2016-01-01

Strong spatial genetic structure in plant populations can increase homozygosity, reducing genetic diversity and adaptive potential. The strength of spatial genetic structure largely depends on rates of seed dispersal and pollen flow. Seeds without dispersal adaptations are likely to be dispersed over short distances within the vicinity of the mother plant, resulting in spatial clustering of related genotypes (fine-scale spatial genetic structure, hereafter spatial genetic structure (SGS)). However, primary seed dispersal by zoochory can promote effective dispersal, increasing the mixing of seeds and influencing SGS within plant populations. In this study, we investigated the effects of seed dispersal by rotational sheep grazing on the strength of SGS and genetic diversity using 11 nuclear microsatellites for 49 populations of the calcareous grassland forb Dianthus carthusianorum. Populations connected by rotational sheep grazing showed significantly weaker SGS and higher genetic diversity than populations in ungrazed grasslands. Independent of grazing treatment, small populations showed significantly stronger SGS and lower genetic diversity than larger populations, likely due to genetic drift. A lack of significant differences in the strength of SGS and genetic diversity between populations that were recently colonized and pre-existing populations suggested that populations colonized after the reintroduction of rotational sheep grazing were likely founded by colonists from diverse source populations. We conclude that dispersal by rotational sheep grazing has the potential to considerably reduce SGS within D. carthusianorum populations. Our study highlights the effectiveness of landscape management by rotational sheep grazing to importantly reduce genetic structure at local scales within restored plant populations. PMID:27381322

Reduced fine-scale spatial genetic structure in grazed populations of Dianthus carthusianorum.

PubMed

Rico, Y; Wagner, H H

2016-11-01

Strong spatial genetic structure in plant populations can increase homozygosity, reducing genetic diversity and adaptive potential. The strength of spatial genetic structure largely depends on rates of seed dispersal and pollen flow. Seeds without dispersal adaptations are likely to be dispersed over short distances within the vicinity of the mother plant, resulting in spatial clustering of related genotypes (fine-scale spatial genetic structure, hereafter spatial genetic structure (SGS)). However, primary seed dispersal by zoochory can promote effective dispersal, increasing the mixing of seeds and influencing SGS within plant populations. In this study, we investigated the effects of seed dispersal by rotational sheep grazing on the strength of SGS and genetic diversity using 11 nuclear microsatellites for 49 populations of the calcareous grassland forb Dianthus carthusianorum. Populations connected by rotational sheep grazing showed significantly weaker SGS and higher genetic diversity than populations in ungrazed grasslands. Independent of grazing treatment, small populations showed significantly stronger SGS and lower genetic diversity than larger populations, likely due to genetic drift. A lack of significant differences in the strength of SGS and genetic diversity between populations that were recently colonized and pre-existing populations suggested that populations colonized after the reintroduction of rotational sheep grazing were likely founded by colonists from diverse source populations. We conclude that dispersal by rotational sheep grazing has the potential to considerably reduce SGS within D. carthusianorum populations. Our study highlights the effectiveness of landscape management by rotational sheep grazing to importantly reduce genetic structure at local scales within restored plant populations.

Optimizing agent-based transmission models for infectious diseases.

PubMed

Willem, Lander; Stijven, Sean; Tijskens, Engelbert; Beutels, Philippe; Hens, Niel; Broeckhove, Jan

2015-06-02

Infectious disease modeling and computational power have evolved such that large-scale agent-based models (ABMs) have become feasible. However, the increasing hardware complexity requires adapted software designs to achieve the full potential of current high-performance workstations. We have found large performance differences with a discrete-time ABM for close-contact disease transmission due to data locality. Sorting the population according to the social contact clusters reduced simulation time by a factor of two. Data locality and model performance can also be improved by storing person attributes separately instead of using person objects. Next, decreasing the number of operations by sorting people by health status before processing disease transmission has also a large impact on model performance. Depending of the clinical attack rate, target population and computer hardware, the introduction of the sort phase decreased the run time from 26% up to more than 70%. We have investigated the application of parallel programming techniques and found that the speedup is significant but it drops quickly with the number of cores. We observed that the effect of scheduling and workload chunk size is model specific and can make a large difference. Investment in performance optimization of ABM simulator code can lead to significant run time reductions. The key steps are straightforward: the data structure for the population and sorting people on health status before effecting disease propagation. We believe these conclusions to be valid for a wide range of infectious disease ABMs. We recommend that future studies evaluate the impact of data management, algorithmic procedures and parallelization on model performance.

Equilibrium Strategy and Population-Size Effects in Lowest Unique Bid Auctions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pigolotti, Simone; Bernhardsson, Sebastian; Juul, Jeppe; Galster, Gorm; Vivo, Pierpaolo

2012-02-01

In lowest unique bid auctions, N players bid for an item. The winner is whoever places the lowest bid, provided that it is also unique. We use a grand canonical approach to derive an analytical expression for the equilibrium distribution of strategies. We then study the properties of the solution as a function of the mean number of players, and compare them with a large data set of internet auctions. The theory agrees with the data with striking accuracy for small population-size N, while for larger N a qualitatively different distribution is observed. We interpret this result as the emergence of two different regimes, one in which adaptation is feasible and one in which it is not. Our results question the actual possibility of a large population to adapt and find the optimal strategy when participating in a collective game.

Minimization of socioeconomic disruption for displaced populations following disasters.

PubMed

El-Anwar, Omar; El-Rayes, Khaled; Elnashai, Amr

2010-07-01

In the aftermath of catastrophic natural disasters such as hurricanes, tsunamis and earthquakes, emergency management agencies come under intense pressure to provide temporary housing to address the large-scale displacement of the vulnerable population. Temporary housing is essential to enable displaced families to reestablish their normal daily activities until permanent housing solutions can be provided. Temporary housing decisions, however, have often been criticized for their failure to fulfil the socioeconomic needs of the displaced families within acceptable budgets. This paper presents the development of (1) socioeconomic disruption metrics that are capable of quantifying the socioeconomic impacts of temporary housing decisions on displaced populations; and (2) a robust multi-objective optimization model for temporary housing that is capable of simultaneously minimizing socioeconomic disruptions and public expenditures in an effective and efficient manner. A large-scale application example is optimized to illustrate the use of the model and demonstrate its capabilities ingenerating optimal plans for realistic temporary housing problems.

Calcification, Storm Damage and Population Resilience of Tabular Corals under Climate Change

PubMed Central

Madin, Joshua S.; Hughes, Terry P.; Connolly, Sean R.

2012-01-01

Two facets of climate change–increased tropical storm intensity and ocean acidification–are expected to detrimentally affect reef-building organisms by increasing their mortality rates and decreasing their calcification rates. Our current understanding of these effects is largely based on individual organisms’ short-term responses to experimental manipulations. However, predicting the ecologically-relevant effects of climate change requires understanding the long-term demographic implications of these organism-level responses. In this study, we investigate how storm intensity and calcification rate interact to affect population dynamics of the table coral Acropora hyacinthus, a dominant and geographically widespread ecosystem engineer on wave-exposed Indo-Pacific reefs. We develop a mechanistic framework based on the responses of individual-level demographic rates to changes in the physical and chemical environment, using a size-structured population model that enables us to rigorously incorporate uncertainty. We find that table coral populations are vulnerable to future collapse, placing in jeopardy many other reef organisms that are dependent upon them for shelter and food. Resistance to collapse is largely insensitive to predicted changes in storm intensity, but is highly dependent on the extent to which calcification influences both the mechanical properties of reef substrate and the colony-level trade-off between growth rate and skeletal strength. This study provides the first rigorous quantitative accounting of the demographic implications of the effects of ocean acidification and changes in storm intensity, and provides a template for further studies of climate-induced shifts in ecosystems, including coral reefs. PMID:23056379

Population of collective modes in light scattering by many atoms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guerin, William; Kaiser, Robin

2017-05-01

The interaction of light with an atomic sample containing a large number of particles gives rise to many collective (or cooperative) effects, such as multiple scattering, superradiance, and subradiance, even if the atomic density is low and the incident optical intensity weak (linear optics regime). Tracing over the degrees of freedom of the light field, the system can be well described by an effective atomic Hamiltonian, which contains the light-mediated dipole-dipole interaction between atoms. This long-range interaction is at the origin of the various collective effects, or of collective excitation modes of the system. Even though an analysis of the eigenvalues and eigenfunctions of these collective modes does allow distinguishing superradiant modes, for instance, from other collective modes, this is not sufficient to understand the dynamics of a driven system, as not all collective modes are significantly populated. Here, we study how the excitation parameters, i.e., the driving field, determines the population of the collective modes. We investigate in particular the role of the laser detuning from the atomic transition, and demonstrate a simple relation between the detuning and the steady-state population of the modes. This relation allows understanding several properties of cooperative scattering, such as why superradiance and subradiance become independent of the detuning at large enough detuning without vanishing, and why superradiance, but not subradiance, is suppressed near resonance. We also show that the spatial properties of the collective modes allow distinguishing diffusive modes, responsible for radiation trapping, from subradiant modes.

Population Size Estimates for Men who Have Sex with Men and Persons who Inject Drugs.

PubMed

Oster, Alexandra M; Sternberg, Maya; Lansky, Amy; Broz, Dita; Wejnert, Cyprian; Paz-Bailey, Gabriela

2015-08-01

Understanding geographic variation in the numbers of men who have sex with men (MSM) and persons who inject drugs (PWID) is critical to targeting and scaling up HIV prevention programs, but population size estimates are not available at generalizable sub-national levels. We analyzed 1999-2010 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data on persons aged 18-59 years. We estimated weighted prevalence of recent (past 12 month) male-male sex and injection drug use by urbanicity (the degree to which a geographic area is urban) and US census region and calculated population sizes. Large metro areas (population ≥1,000,000) had higher prevalence of male-male sex (central areas, 4.4% of men; fringe areas, 2.5%) compared with medium/small metro areas (1.4%) and nonmetro areas (1.1%). Injection drug use did not vary by urbanicity and neither varied by census region. Three-quarters of MSM, but only half of PWID, resided in large metro areas. Two-thirds of MSM and two-thirds of PWID resided in the South and West. Efforts to reach MSM would benefit from being focused in large metro areas, while efforts to reach PWID should be delivered more broadly. These data allow for more effective allocation of funds for prevention programs.

Men, women…who cares? A population-based study on sex differences and gender roles in empathy and moral cognition

PubMed Central

Baez, Sandra; Flichtentrei, Daniel; Prats, María; Mastandueno, Ricardo; García, Adolfo M.; Cetkovich, Marcelo

2017-01-01

Research on sex differences in empathy has revealed mixed findings. Whereas experimental and neuropsychological measures show no consistent sex effect, self-report data consistently indicates greater empathy in women. However, available results mainly come from separate populations with relatively small samples, which may inflate effect sizes and hinder comparability between both empirical corpora. To elucidate the issue, we conducted two large-scale studies. First, we examined whether sex differences emerge in a large population-based sample (n = 10,802) when empathy is measured with an experimental empathy-for-pain paradigm. Moreover, we investigated the relationship between empathy and moral judgment. In the second study, a subsample (n = 334) completed a self-report empathy questionnaire. Results showed some sex differences in the experimental paradigm, but with minuscule effect sizes. Conversely, women did portray themselves as more empathic through self-reports. In addition, utilitarian responses to moral dilemmas were less frequent in women, although these differences also had small effect sizes. These findings suggest that sex differences in empathy are highly driven by the assessment measure. In particular, self-reports may induce biases leading individuals to assume gender-role stereotypes. Awareness of the role of measurement instruments in this field may hone our understanding of the links between empathy, sex differences, and gender roles. PMID:28632770

Plant defense phenotypes determine the consequences of volatile emission for individuals and neighbors

PubMed Central

Schuman, Meredith C; Allmann, Silke; Baldwin, Ian T

2015-01-01

Plants are at the trophic base of terrestrial ecosystems, and the diversity of plant species in an ecosystem is a principle determinant of community structure. This may arise from diverse functional traits among species. In fact, genetic diversity within species can have similarly large effects. However, studies of intraspecific genetic diversity have used genotypes varying in several complex traits, obscuring the specific phenotypic variation responsible for community-level effects. Using lines of the wild tobacco Nicotiana attenuata genetically altered in specific well-characterized defense traits and planted into experimental populations in their native habitat, we investigated community-level effects of trait diversity in populations of otherwise isogenic plants. We conclude that the frequency of defense traits in a population can determine the outcomes of these traits for individuals. Furthermore, our results suggest that some ecosystem-level services afforded by genetically diverse plant populations could be recaptured in intensive monocultures engineered to be functionally diverse. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.04490.001 PMID:25873033

A Review of Intervention Programs to Prevent and Treat Behavioral Problems in Young Children with Developmental Disabilities

PubMed Central

Petrenko, Christie L. M.

2013-01-01

Children with developmental disabilities are at higher risk for internalizing and externalizing behavioral problems than children in the general population. Effective prevention and treatment programs are necessary to reduce the burden of behavioral problems in this population. The current review identified 17 controlled trials of nine intervention programs for young children with developmental disabilities, with parent training the most common type of intervention in this population. Nearly all studies demonstrated medium to large intervention effects on child behavior post-intervention. Preliminary evidence suggests interventions developed for the general population can be effective for children with developmental disabilities and their families. A greater emphasis on the prevention of behavior problems in young children with developmental disabilities prior to the onset of significant symptoms or clinical disorders is needed. Multi-component interventions may be more efficacious for child behavior problems and yield greater benefits for parent and family adjustment. Recommendations for future research directions are provided. PMID:24222982

Homogenization analysis of invasion dynamics in heterogeneous landscapes with differential bias and motility.

PubMed

Yurk, Brian P

2018-07-01

Animal movement behaviors vary spatially in response to environmental heterogeneity. An important problem in spatial ecology is to determine how large-scale population growth and dispersal patterns emerge within highly variable landscapes. We apply the method of homogenization to study the large-scale behavior of a reaction-diffusion-advection model of population growth and dispersal. Our model includes small-scale variation in the directed and random components of movement and growth rates, as well as large-scale drift. Using the homogenized model we derive simple approximate formulas for persistence conditions and asymptotic invasion speeds, which are interpreted in terms of residence index. The homogenization results show good agreement with numerical solutions for environments with a high degree of fragmentation, both with and without periodicity at the fast scale. The simplicity of the formulas, and their connection to residence index make them appealing for studying the large-scale effects of a variety of small-scale movement behaviors.

Causes and consequences of complex population dynamics in an annual plant, Cardamine pensylvanica

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Crone, E.E.

1995-11-08

The relative importance of density-dependent and density-independent factors in determining the population dynamics of plants has been widely debated with little resolution. In this thesis, the author explores the effects of density-dependent population regulation on population dynamics in Cardamine pensylvanica, an annual plant. In the first chapter, she shows that experimental populations of C. pensylvanica cycled from high to low density in controlled constant-environment conditions. These cycles could not be explained by external environmental changes or simple models of direct density dependence (N{sub t+1} = f[N{sub t}]), but they could be explained by delayed density dependence (N{sub t+1} = f[N{submore » t}, N{sub t+1}]). In the second chapter, she shows that the difference in the stability properties of population growth models with and without delayed density dependence is due to the presence of Hopf as well as slip bifurcations from stable to chaotic population dynamics. She also measures delayed density dependence due to effects of parental density on offspring quality in C. pensylvanica and shows that this is large enough to be the cause of the population dynamics observed in C. pensylvanica. In the third chapter, the author extends her analyses of density-dependent population growth models to include interactions between competing species. In the final chapter, she compares the effects of fixed spatial environmental variation and variation in population size on the evolutionary response of C. pensylvanica populations.« less

Fitness decline under osmotic stress in Caenorhabditis elegans populations subjected to spontaneous mutation accumulation at varying population sizes.

PubMed

Katju, Vaishali; Packard, Lucille B; Keightley, Peter D

2018-04-01

The consequences of mutations for population fitness depends on their individual selection coefficients and the effective population size. An earlier study of Caenorhabditis elegans spontaneous mutation accumulation lines evolved for 409 generations at three population sizes found that N e   = 1 populations declined significantly in fitness whereas the fitness of larger populations (N e   = 5, 50) was indistinguishable from the ancestral control under benign conditions. To test if larger MA populations harbor a load of cryptic deleterious mutations that are obscured under benign laboratory conditions, we measured fitness under osmotic stress via exposure to hypersaline conditions. The fitness of N e   = 1 lines exhibited a further decline under osmotic stress compared to benign conditions. However, the fitness of larger populations remained indistinguishable from that of the ancestral control. The average effects of deleterious mutations in N e   = 1 lines were estimated to be 22% for productivity and 14% for survivorship, exceeding values previously detected under benign conditions. Our results suggest that fitness decline is due to large effect mutations that are rapidly removed via selection even in small populations, with implications for conservation practices. Genetic stochasticity may not be as potent and immediate a threat to the persistence of small populations as other demographic and environmental stochastic factors. © 2018 The Author(s). Evolution © 2018 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Modeling tradeoffs in avian life history traits and consequences for population growth

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clark, M.E.; Martin, T.E.

2007-01-01

Variation in population dynamics is inherently related to life history characteristics of species, which vary markedly even within phylogenetic groups such as passerine birds. We computed the finite rate of population change (??) from a matrix projection model and from mark-recapture observations for 23 bird species breeding in northern Arizona. We used sensitivity analyses and a simulation model to separate contributions of different life history traits to population growth rate. In particular we focused on contrasting effects of components of reproduction (nest success, clutch size, number of clutches, and juvenile survival) versus adult survival on ??. We explored how changes in nest success or adult survival coupled to costs in other life history parameters affected ?? over a life history gradient provided by our 23 Arizona species, as well as a broader sample of 121 North American passerine species. We further examined these effects for more than 200 passeriform and piciform populations breeding across North America. Model simulations indicate nest success and juvenile survival exert the largest effects on population growth in species with moderate to high reproductive output, whereas adult survival contributed more to population growth in long-lived species. Our simulations suggest that monitoring breeding success in populations across a broad geographic area provides an important index for identifying neotropical migratory populations at risk of serious population declines and a potential method for identifying large-scale mechanisms regulating population dynamics. ?? 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Nutraceuticals and Blood Pressure Control: Results from Clinical Trials and Meta-Analyses.

PubMed

Cicero, Arrigo F G; Colletti, Alessandro

2015-09-01

Beyond the well-known effects on blood pressure (BP) of the dietary approaches to stop hypertension (DASH) and the Mediterranean diets, a large number of studies has investigated the possible BP lowering effect of different dietary supplements and nutraceuticals, the most part of them being antioxidant agents with a high tolerability and safety profile. In particular relatively large body of evidence support the use of potassium, L-arginine, vitamin C, cocoa flavonoids, beetroot juice, coenzyme Q10, controlled-release melatonin, and aged garlic extract. However there is a need for data about the long-term safety of a large part of the above discussed products. Moreover further clinical research is advisable to identify between the available active nutraceuticals those with the best cost-effectiveness and risk-benefit ratio for a large use in general population with low-added cardiovascular risk related to uncomplicated hypertension.

American Exceptionalism: Population Trends and Flight Initiation Distances in Birds from Three Continents

PubMed Central

Møller, Anders Pape; Samia, Diogo S. M.; Weston, Mike A.; Guay, Patrick-Jean; Blumstein, Daniel T.

2014-01-01

Background All organisms may be affected by humans' increasing impact on Earth, but there are many potential drivers of population trends and the relative importance of each remains largely unknown. The causes of spatial patterns in population trends and their relationship with animal responses to human proximity are even less known. Methodology/Principal Finding We investigated the relationship between population trends of 193 species of bird in North America, Australia and Europe and flight initiation distance (FID); the distance at which birds take flight when approached by a human. While there is an expected negative relationship between population trend and FID in Australia and Europe, we found the inverse relationship for North American birds; thus FID cannot be used as a universal predictor of vulnerability of birds. However, the analysis of the joint explanatory ability of multiple drivers (farmland breeding habitat, pole-most breeding latitude, migratory habit, FID) effects on population status replicated previously reported strong effects of farmland breeding habitat (an effect apparently driven mostly by European birds), as well as strong effects of FID, body size, migratory habit and continent. Farmland birds are generally declining. Conclusions/Significance Flight initiation distance is related to population trends in a way that differs among continents opening new research possibilities concerning the causes of geographic differences in patterns of anti-predator behavior. PMID:25226165

Decline and recovery of a large carnivore: environmental change and long-term trends in an endangered brown bear population

PubMed Central

Naves, Javier; Fernández-Gil, Alberto

2016-01-01

Understanding what factors drive fluctuations in the abundance of endangered species is a difficult ecological problem but a major requirement to attain effective management and conservation success. The ecological traits of large mammals make this task even more complicated, calling for integrative approaches. We develop a framework combining individual-based modelling and statistical inference to assess alternative hypotheses on brown bear dynamics in the Cantabrian range (Iberian Peninsula). Models including the effect of environmental factors on mortality rates were able to reproduce three decades of variation in the number of females with cubs of the year (Fcoy), including the decline that put the population close to extinction in the mid-nineties, and the following increase in brown bear numbers. This external effect prevailed over density-dependent mechanisms (sexually selected infanticide and female reproductive suppression), with a major impact of climate driven changes in resource availability and a secondary role of changes in human pressure. Predicted changes in population structure revealed a nonlinear relationship between total abundance and the number of Fcoy, highlighting the risk of simple projections based on indirect abundance indices. This study demonstrates the advantages of integrative, mechanistic approaches and provides a widely applicable framework to improve our understanding of wildlife dynamics. PMID:27903871

Decline and recovery of a large carnivore: environmental change and long-term trends in an endangered brown bear population.

PubMed

Martínez Cano, Isabel; Taboada, Fernando González; Naves, Javier; Fernández-Gil, Alberto; Wiegand, Thorsten

2016-11-30

Understanding what factors drive fluctuations in the abundance of endangered species is a difficult ecological problem but a major requirement to attain effective management and conservation success. The ecological traits of large mammals make this task even more complicated, calling for integrative approaches. We develop a framework combining individual-based modelling and statistical inference to assess alternative hypotheses on brown bear dynamics in the Cantabrian range (Iberian Peninsula). Models including the effect of environmental factors on mortality rates were able to reproduce three decades of variation in the number of females with cubs of the year (Fcoy), including the decline that put the population close to extinction in the mid-nineties, and the following increase in brown bear numbers. This external effect prevailed over density-dependent mechanisms (sexually selected infanticide and female reproductive suppression), with a major impact of climate driven changes in resource availability and a secondary role of changes in human pressure. Predicted changes in population structure revealed a nonlinear relationship between total abundance and the number of Fcoy, highlighting the risk of simple projections based on indirect abundance indices. This study demonstrates the advantages of integrative, mechanistic approaches and provides a widely applicable framework to improve our understanding of wildlife dynamics. © 2016 The Author(s).

Genetic Variability Under the Seedbank Coalescent.

PubMed

Blath, Jochen; González Casanova, Adrián; Eldon, Bjarki; Kurt, Noemi; Wilke-Berenguer, Maite

2015-07-01

We analyze patterns of genetic variability of populations in the presence of a large seedbank with the help of a new coalescent structure called the seedbank coalescent. This ancestral process appears naturally as a scaling limit of the genealogy of large populations that sustain seedbanks, if the seedbank size and individual dormancy times are of the same order as those of the active population. Mutations appear as Poisson processes on the active lineages and potentially at reduced rate also on the dormant lineages. The presence of "dormant" lineages leads to qualitatively altered times to the most recent common ancestor and nonclassical patterns of genetic diversity. To illustrate this we provide a Wright-Fisher model with a seedbank component and mutation, motivated from recent models of microbial dormancy, whose genealogy can be described by the seedbank coalescent. Based on our coalescent model, we derive recursions for the expectation and variance of the time to most recent common ancestor, number of segregating sites, pairwise differences, and singletons. Estimates (obtained by simulations) of the distributions of commonly employed distance statistics, in the presence and absence of a seedbank, are compared. The effect of a seedbank on the expected site-frequency spectrum is also investigated using simulations. Our results indicate that the presence of a large seedbank considerably alters the distribution of some distance statistics, as well as the site-frequency spectrum. Thus, one should be able to detect from genetic data the presence of a large seedbank in natural populations. Copyright © 2015 by the Genetics Society of America.

Genetic Variability Under the Seedbank Coalescent

PubMed Central

Blath, Jochen; González Casanova, Adrián; Eldon, Bjarki; Kurt, Noemi; Wilke-Berenguer, Maite

2015-01-01

We analyze patterns of genetic variability of populations in the presence of a large seedbank with the help of a new coalescent structure called the seedbank coalescent. This ancestral process appears naturally as a scaling limit of the genealogy of large populations that sustain seedbanks, if the seedbank size and individual dormancy times are of the same order as those of the active population. Mutations appear as Poisson processes on the active lineages and potentially at reduced rate also on the dormant lineages. The presence of “dormant” lineages leads to qualitatively altered times to the most recent common ancestor and nonclassical patterns of genetic diversity. To illustrate this we provide a Wright–Fisher model with a seedbank component and mutation, motivated from recent models of microbial dormancy, whose genealogy can be described by the seedbank coalescent. Based on our coalescent model, we derive recursions for the expectation and variance of the time to most recent common ancestor, number of segregating sites, pairwise differences, and singletons. Estimates (obtained by simulations) of the distributions of commonly employed distance statistics, in the presence and absence of a seedbank, are compared. The effect of a seedbank on the expected site-frequency spectrum is also investigated using simulations. Our results indicate that the presence of a large seedbank considerably alters the distribution of some distance statistics, as well as the site-frequency spectrum. Thus, one should be able to detect from genetic data the presence of a large seedbank in natural populations. PMID:25953769

Construction and analysis of a giant gartersnake (Thamnophis gigas) population projection model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rose, Jonathan P.; Ersan, Julia S. M.; Wylie, Glenn D.; Casazza, Michael L.; Halstead, Brian J.

2018-03-19

The giant gartersnake (Thamnophis gigas) is a state and federally threatened species precinctive to California. The range of the giant gartersnake has contracted in the last century because its wetland habitat has been drained for agriculture and development. As a result of this habitat alteration, giant gartersnakes now largely persist in and near rice agriculture in the Sacramento Valley, because the system of canals that conveys water for rice growing approximates historical wetland habitat. Many aspects of the demography of giant gartersnakes are unknown, including how individuals grow throughout their life, how size influences reproduction, and how survival varies over time and among populations. We studied giant gartersnakes throughout the Sacramento Valley of California from 1995 to 2016 using capture-mark-recapture to study the growth, reproduction, and survival of this threatened species. We then use these data to construct an Integral Projection Model, and analyze this demographic model to understand which vital rates contribute most to the growth rate of giant gartersnake populations. We find that giant gartersnakes exhibit indeterminate growth; growth slows as individuals’ age. Fecundity, probability of reproduction, and survival all increase with size, although survival may decline for the largest female giant gartersnakes. The population growth rate of giant gartersnakes is most influenced by the survival and growth of large adult females, and the size at which 1 year old recruits enter the population. Our results indicate that management actions benefitting these influential demographic parameters will have the greatest positive effect on giant gartersnake population growth rates, and therefore population persistence. This study informs the conservation and management of giant gartersnakes and their habitat, and illustrates the effectiveness of hierarchical Bayesian models for the study of rare and elusive species.

Genetic implications of bottleneck effects of differing severities on genetic diversity in naturally recovering populations: An example from Hawaiian coot and Hawaiian gallinule

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sonsthagen, Sarah A.; Wilson, Robert E.; Underwood, Jared G.

2017-01-01

The evolutionary trajectory of populations through time is influenced by the interplay of forces (biological, evolutionary, and anthropogenic) acting on the standing genetic variation. We used microsatellite and mitochondrial loci to examine the influence of population declines, of varying severity, on genetic diversity within two Hawaiian endemic waterbirds, the Hawaiian coot and Hawaiian gallinule, by comparing historical (samples collected in the late 1800s and early 1900s) and modern (collected in 2012–2013) populations. Population declines simultaneously experienced by Hawaiian coots and Hawaiian gallinules differentially shaped the evolutionary trajectory of these two populations. Within Hawaiian coot, large reductions (between −38.4% and −51.4%) in mitochondrial diversity were observed, although minimal differences were observed in the distribution of allelic and haplotypic frequencies between sampled time periods. Conversely, for Hawaiian gallinule, allelic frequencies were strongly differentiated between time periods, signatures of a genetic bottleneck were detected, and biases in means of the effective population size were observed at microsatellite loci. The strength of the decline appears to have had a greater influence on genetic diversity within Hawaiian gallinule than Hawaiian coot, coincident with the reduction in census size. These species exhibit similar life history characteristics and generation times; therefore, we hypothesize that differences in behavior and colonization history are likely playing a large role in how allelic and haplotypic frequencies are being shaped through time. Furthermore, differences in patterns of genetic diversity within Hawaiian coot and Hawaiian gallinule highlight the influence of demographic and evolutionary processes in shaping how species respond genetically to ecological stressors.

A Genome-wide Analysis of Admixture in Uyghurs and a High-Density Admixture Map for Disease-Gene Discovery

PubMed Central

Xu, Shuhua; Jin, Li

2008-01-01

Following up on our previous study, we conducted a genome-wide analysis of admixture for two Uyghur population samples (HGDP-UG and PanAsia-UG), collected from the northern and southern regions of Xinjiang in China, respectively. Both HGDP-UG and PanAsia-UG showed a substantial admixture of East-Asian (EAS) and European (EUR) ancestries, with an empirical estimation of ancestry contribution of 53:47 (EAS:EUR) and 48:52 for HGDP-UG and PanAsia-UG, respectively. The effective admixture time under a model with a single pulse of admixture was estimated as 110 generations and 129 generations, or admixture events occurred about 2200 and 2580 years ago for HGDP-UG and PanAsia-UG, respectively, assuming an average of 20 yr per generation. Despite Uyghurs' earlier history compared to other admixture populations, admixture mapping, holds promise for this population, because of its large size and its mixture of ancestry from different continents. We screened multiple databases and identified a genome-wide single-nucleotide polymorphism panel that can distinguish EAS and EUR ancestry of chromosomal segments in Uyghurs. The panel contains 8150 ancestry-informative markers (AIMs) showing large frequency differences between EAS and EUR populations (FST > 0.25, mean FST = 0.43) but small frequency differences (7999 AIMs validated) within both populations (FST < 0.05, mean FST < 0.01). We evaluated the effectiveness of this admixture map for localizing disease genes in two Uyghur populations. To our knowledge, our map constitutes the first practical resource for admixture mapping in Uyghurs, and it will enable studies of diseases showing differences in genetic risk between EUR and EAS populations. PMID:18760393

The Genetic Basis of Plant Architecture in 10 Maize Recombinant Inbred Line Populations.

PubMed

Pan, Qingchun; Xu, Yuancheng; Li, Kun; Peng, Yong; Zhan, Wei; Li, Wenqiang; Li, Lin; Yan, Jianbing

2017-10-01

Plant architecture is a key factor affecting planting density and grain yield in maize ( Zea mays ). However, the genetic mechanisms underlying plant architecture in diverse genetic backgrounds have not been fully addressed. Here, we performed a large-scale phenotyping of 10 plant architecture-related traits and dissected the genetic loci controlling these traits in 10 recombinant inbred line populations derived from 14 diverse genetic backgrounds. Nearly 800 quantitative trait loci (QTLs) with major and minor effects were identified as contributing to the phenotypic variation of plant architecture-related traits. Ninety-two percent of these QTLs were detected in only one population, confirming the diverse genetic backgrounds of the mapping populations and the prevalence of rare alleles in maize. The numbers and effects of QTLs are positively associated with the phenotypic variation in the population, which, in turn, correlates positively with parental phenotypic and genetic variations. A large proportion (38.5%) of QTLs was associated with at least two traits, suggestive of the frequent occurrence of pleiotropic loci or closely linked loci. Key developmental genes, which previously were shown to affect plant architecture in mutant studies, were found to colocalize with many QTLs. Five QTLs were further validated using the segregating populations developed from residual heterozygous lines present in the recombinant inbred line populations. Additionally, one new plant height QTL, qPH3 , has been fine-mapped to a 600-kb genomic region where three candidate genes are located. These results provide insights into the genetic mechanisms controlling plant architecture and will benefit the selection of ideal plant architecture in maize breeding. © 2017 American Society of Plant Biologists. All Rights Reserved.

Dealing with China's future population decline: a proposal for replacing low birth rates with sustainable rates.

PubMed

Cao, Shixiong; Wang, Xiuqing

2009-09-01

Decreasing population levels due to declining birth rates are becoming a potentially serious social problem in developed and rapidly developing countries. China urgently needed to reduce birth rates so that its population would decline to a sustainable level, and the family planning policy designed to achieve this goal has largely succeeded. However, continuing to pursue this policy is leading to serious, unanticipated problems such as a shift in the country's population distribution towards the elderly and increasing difficulty supporting that elderly population. Social and political changes that promoted low birth rates and the lack of effective policies to encourage higher birth rates suggest that mitigating the consequences of the predicted population decline will depend on a revised approach based on achieving sustainable birth rates.

Extinction risk and eco-evolutionary dynamics in a variable environment with increasing frequency of extreme events

PubMed Central

Vincenzi, Simone

2014-01-01

One of the most dramatic consequences of climate change will be the intensification and increased frequency of extreme events. I used numerical simulations to understand and predict the consequences of directional trend (i.e. mean state) and increased variability of a climate variable (e.g. temperature), increased probability of occurrence of point extreme events (e.g. floods), selection pressure and effect size of mutations on a quantitative trait determining individual fitness, as well as the their effects on the population and genetic dynamics of a population of moderate size. The interaction among climate trend, variability and probability of point extremes had a minor effect on risk of extinction, time to extinction and distribution of the trait after accounting for their independent effects. The survival chances of a population strongly and linearly decreased with increasing strength of selection, as well as with increasing climate trend and variability. Mutation amplitude had no effects on extinction risk, time to extinction or genetic adaptation to the new climate. Climate trend and strength of selection largely determined the shift of the mean phenotype in the population. The extinction or persistence of the populations in an ‘extinction window’ of 10 years was well predicted by a simple model including mean population size and mean genetic variance over a 10-year time frame preceding the ‘extinction window’, although genetic variance had a smaller role than population size in predicting contemporary risk of extinction. PMID:24920116

Community-based efforts to prevent obesity: Australia-wide survey of projects.

PubMed

Nichols, Melanie S; Reynolds, Rebecca C; Waters, Elizabeth; Gill, Timothy; King, Lesley; Swinburn, Boyd A; Allender, Steven

2013-08-01

Community-based programs that affect healthy environments and policies have emerged as an effective response to high obesity levels in populations. Apart from limited individual reports, little is currently known about these programs, limiting the potential to provide effective support, to promote effective practice, prevent adverse outcomes and disseminate intervention results and experience. The aim of the present study was to identify the size and reach of current community-based obesity prevention projects in Australia and to examine their characteristics, program features (e.g. intervention setting), capacity and approach to obesity prevention. Detailed survey completed by representatives from community-based obesity prevention initiatives in Australia. There was wide variation in funding, capacity and approach to obesity prevention among the 78 participating projects. Median annual funding was Au$94900 (range Au$2500-$4.46 million). The most common intervention settings were schools (39%). Forty per cent of programs focused on a population group of ≥50000 people. A large proportion of respondents felt that they did not have sufficient resources or staff training to achieve project objectives. Community-based projects currently represent a very large investment by both government and non-government sectors for the prevention of obesity. Existing projects are diverse in size and scope, and reach large segments of the population. Further work is needed to identify the full extent of existing community actions and to monitor their reach and future 'scale up' to ensure that future activities aim for effective integration into systems, policies and environments. SO WHAT? Community-based programs make a substantial contribution to the prevention of obesity and promotion of healthy lifestyles in Australia. A risk of the current intervention landscape is that effective approaches may go unrecognised due to lack of effective evaluations or limitations in program design, duration or size. Policy makers and researchers must recognise the potential contribution of these initiatives, to both public health and knowledge generation, and provide support for strong evaluation and sustainable intervention designs.

The effects of Strongylus vulgaris parasitism on eosinophil distribution and accumulation in equine large intestinal mucosa.

PubMed

Rötting, A K; Freeman, D E; Constable, P D; Moore, R M; Eurell, J C; Wallig, M A; Hubert, J D

2008-06-01

Eosinophilic granulocytes have been associated with parasite or immune-mediated diseases, but their functions in other disease processes remain unclear. Cause and timing of eosinophil migration into the equine gastrointestinal mucosa are also unknown. To determine the effects of intestinal parasitism on eosinophils in equine large intestinal mucosa. Large intestinal mucosal samples were collected from horses and ponies (n = 16) from the general veterinary hospital population, ponies (n = 3) raised in a parasite-free environment, ponies experimentally infected with 500 infective Strongylus vulgaris larvae and treated with a proprietary anthelmintic drug (n = 14), and a similar group of ponies (n = 7) that received no anthelmintic treatment. Total eosinophil counts and eosinophil distribution in the mucosa were determined by histological examination. A mixed model analysis was performed and appropriate Bonferroni adjusted P values used for each family of comparisons. P<0.05 was considered significant. There was no difference in large intestinal mucosal eosinophil counts and eosinophil distribution between ponies infected with S. vulgaris and those raised in a parasite-free environment. Experimental infection with S. vulgaris, with or without subsequent anthelmintic treatment, did not change eosinophil counts, and counts were similar to those for horses from the general population. Migration of eosinophils to the equine large intestinal mucosa appears to be independent of exposure to parasites. Large intestinal mucosal eosinophils may have more functions in addition to their role in defence against parasites.

Production of large resonant plasma volumes in microwave electron cyclotron resonance ion sources

DOEpatents

Alton, G.D.

1998-11-24

Microwave injection methods are disclosed for enhancing the performance of existing electron cyclotron resonance (ECR) ion sources. The methods are based on the use of high-power diverse frequency microwaves, including variable-frequency, multiple-discrete-frequency, and broadband microwaves. The methods effect large resonant ``volume`` ECR regions in the ion sources. The creation of these large ECR plasma volumes permits coupling of more microwave power into the plasma, resulting in the heating of a much larger electron population to higher energies, the effect of which is to produce higher charge state distributions and much higher intensities within a particular charge state than possible in present ECR ion sources. 5 figs.

A REEXAMINATION OF THE POLLEN-DONATION HYPOTHESIS IN AN EXPERIMENTAL POPULATION OF ASCLEPIAS EXALTATA.

PubMed

Broyles, Steven B; Wyatt, Robert

1995-02-01

The evolution of large floral displays in hermaphroditic flowering plants has been attributed to natural selection acting to enhance male, rather than female, reproductive success. Proponents of the "pollen-donation hypothesis" have assumed that maternal resources, rather than levels of effective pollination, limit fruit set. We investigated the pollen-donation hypothesis in an experimental population of poke milkweed, Asclepias exaltata, where effective pollination did not limit fruit set. Specifically, we examined the effects of flower number per plant, and flower number per umbel on male reproductive success (number of fruits sired) and female reproductive success (number of fruits matured). In 1990, a paternity analysis was performed on fruits collected from 53 plants whose inflorescences were not manipulated. Flower number per plant was significantly correlated with male success, but not with plant gender. Flower number per plant was also significantly correlated with female success, but umbel number and stem number per plant together explained more than half (58%) the variation in female success. The percentage of fruit set was not significantly correlated with flower number per plant. Plants with large floral displays did not disproportionately increase in male reproductive success, relative to female success, as predicted by the pollen-donation hypothesis. In 1991, the effect of flower number per umbel on male and female reproductive success was investigated. Flower number per umbel was manipulated on four umbels per plant by removing flowers to leave 6, 12, or 18 flowers in each umbel. Plants with the largest umbels effectively pollinated twice as many flowers on other plants, but produced only 1.35 times as many fruits as plants with 6 and 12 flowers per umbel. Relative maleness of plants with large umbels was nearly twice that of small and medium umbels. Although these observations are consistent with the pollen-donation hypothesis at the level of umbels, they are problematic, because much of the variation in flower number per umbel exists within, rather than among, plants in natural populations. Thus, plants consist of both reproductively male (large) and female (small) inflorescences, which act to increase total reproductive success. It is therefore inappropriate to explain the evolution of large floral displays in milkweeds solely in terms of potential male reproductive success. © 1995 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Potential population-level effects of increased haulout-related mortality of Pacific walrus calves

USGS Publications Warehouse

Udevitz, Mark S.; Taylor, Rebecca L.; Garlich-Miller, Joel L.; Quakenbush, Lori T.; Snyder, Jonathan A.

2013-01-01

Availability of summer sea ice has been decreasing in the Chukchi Sea during recent decades, and increasing numbers of Pacific walruses have begun using coastal haulouts in late summer during years when sea ice retreats beyond the continental shelf. Calves and yearlings are particularly susceptible to being crushed during disturbance events that cause the herd to panic and stampede at these large haulouts, but the potential population-level effects of this mortality are unknown. We used recent harvest data, along with previous assumptions about demographic parameters for this population, to estimate female population size and structure in 2009 and project these numbers forward using a range of assumptions about future harvests and haulout-related mortality that might result from increased use of coastal haulouts during late summer. We found that if demographic parameters were held constant, the levels of harvest that occurred during 1990–2008 would have allowed the population to grow during that period. Our projections indicate, however, that an increase in haulout-related mortality affecting only calves has a greater effect on the population than an equivalent increase in harvest-related mortality distributed among all age classes. Therefore, disturbance-related mortality of calves at coastal haulouts may have relatively important population consequences.

Effects of population density on corticosterone levels of prairie voles in the field

PubMed Central

Blondel, Dimitri V.; Wallace, Gerard N.; Calderone, Stefanie; Gorinshteyn, Marija; St. Mary, Colette M.; Phelps, Steven M.

2015-01-01

High population density is often associated with increased levels of stress-related hormones, such as corticosterone (CORT). Prairie voles (Microtus ochrogaster) are a socially monogamous species known for their large population density fluctuations in the wild. Although CORT influences the social behavior of prairie voles in the lab, the effect of population density on CORT has not previously been quantified in this species in the field. We validated a non-invasive hormone assay for measuring CORT metabolites in prairie vole feces. We then used semi-natural enclosures to experimentally manipulate population density, and measured density effects on male space use and fecal CORT levels. Our enclosures generated patterns of space use and social interaction that were consistent with previous prairie vole field studies. Contrary to the positive relationship between CORT and density typical of other taxa, we found that lower population densities (80 animals/ha) produced higher fecal CORT than high densities (240/ha). Combined with prior work in the lab and field, the data suggest that high prairie vole population densities indicate favorable environments, perhaps through reduced predation risk. Lastly, we found that field animals had lower fecal CORT levels than laboratory-living animals. The data emphasize the usefulness of prairie voles as models for integrating ecological, evolutionary and mechanistic questions in social behavior. PMID:26342968

Contaminant effects on Great Lakes' fish-eating birds: a population perspective

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heinz, G.H.; Kendall, Ronald J.; Dickerson, Richard L.; Giesy, John P.; Suk, William P.

1998-01-01

Preventing environmental contaminants from reducing wildlife populations is the greatest concern in wildlife toxicology. In the Great Lakes, environmental contaminants have a history of reducing populations of many species of fish-eating birds. Endocrine effects may have contributed to declines in fish-eating bird populations, but the overriding harm was caused by DDE-induced eggshell thinning. Toxic effects may still be occurring today, but apparently they are not of a sufficient magnitude to depress populations of most fish-eating birds. Once DDE levels in the Great Lakes declined, eggshells of birds began to get thicker and reproductive success improved. Populations of double-crested cormorants (Phalacrocorax auritus) and ring-billed gulls (Larus delawarensis) have increased dramatically since the bans on DDT and other organochlorine pesticides. Bald eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) are still not reproducing at a normal rate along the shores of the Great Lakes, but success is much improved compared to earlier records when eggshell thinning was worse. Other species, such as herring gulls (Larus argentatus) and black-crowned night-herons (Nycticorax nycticorax), seem to be having improved reproductive success, but data on Great Lakes'-wide population changes are incomplete. Reproductive success of common terns (Sterna hirundo), Caspian terns (Sterna caspia), and Forster's terns (Sterna forsteri) seems to have improved in recent years, but, again, data on population changes are not very complete, and these birds face many habitat related problems as well as contaminant problems. Although contaminants are still producing toxic effects, and these effects may include endocrine disfunction, fish-eating birds in the Great Lakes seem to be largely weathering these effects, at least as far as populations are concerned. A lack of obvious contaminant effects on populations of fish-eating birds in the Great Lakes, however, should not be equated with a lack of any harm to these birds or with a conclusion that certain contaminants do not need additional control.

Disentangling the effects of climate, density dependence, and harvest on an iconic large herbivore's population dynamics.

PubMed

Koons, David N; Colchero, Fernando; Hersey, Kent; Gimenez, Olivier

2015-06-01

Understanding the relative effects of climate, harvest, and density dependence on population dynamics is critical for guiding sound population management, especially for ungulates in arid and semiarid environments experiencing climate change. To address these issues for bison in southern Utah, USA, we applied a Bayesian state-space model to a 72-yr time series of abundance counts. While accounting for known harvest (as well as live removal) from the population, we found that the bison population in southern Utah exhibited a strong potential to grow from low density (β0 = 0.26; Bayesian credible interval based on 95% of the highest posterior density [BCI] = 0.19-0.33), and weak but statistically significant density dependence (β1 = -0.02, BCI = -0.04 to -0.004). Early spring temperatures also had strong positive effects on population growth (Pfat1 = 0.09, BCI = 0.04-0.14), much more so than precipitation and other temperature-related variables (model weight > three times more than that for other climate variables). Although we hypothesized that harvest is the primary driving force of bison population dynamics in southern Utah, our elasticity analysis indicated that changes in early spring temperature could have a greater relative effect on equilibrium abundance than either harvest or. the strength of density dependence. Our findings highlight the utility of incorporating elasticity analyses into state-space population models, and the need to include climatic processes in wildlife management policies and planning.

Violation of the Sphericity Assumption and Its Effect on Type-I Error Rates in Repeated Measures ANOVA and Multi-Level Linear Models (MLM).

PubMed

Haverkamp, Nicolas; Beauducel, André

2017-01-01

We investigated the effects of violations of the sphericity assumption on Type I error rates for different methodical approaches of repeated measures analysis using a simulation approach. In contrast to previous simulation studies on this topic, up to nine measurement occasions were considered. Effects of the level of inter-correlations between measurement occasions on Type I error rates were considered for the first time. Two populations with non-violation of the sphericity assumption, one with uncorrelated measurement occasions and one with moderately correlated measurement occasions, were generated. One population with violation of the sphericity assumption combines uncorrelated with highly correlated measurement occasions. A second population with violation of the sphericity assumption combines moderately correlated and highly correlated measurement occasions. From these four populations without any between-group effect or within-subject effect 5,000 random samples were drawn. Finally, the mean Type I error rates for Multilevel linear models (MLM) with an unstructured covariance matrix (MLM-UN), MLM with compound-symmetry (MLM-CS) and for repeated measures analysis of variance (rANOVA) models (without correction, with Greenhouse-Geisser-correction, and Huynh-Feldt-correction) were computed. To examine the effect of both the sample size and the number of measurement occasions, sample sizes of n = 20, 40, 60, 80, and 100 were considered as well as measurement occasions of m = 3, 6, and 9. With respect to rANOVA, the results plead for a use of rANOVA with Huynh-Feldt-correction, especially when the sphericity assumption is violated, the sample size is rather small and the number of measurement occasions is large. For MLM-UN, the results illustrate a massive progressive bias for small sample sizes ( n = 20) and m = 6 or more measurement occasions. This effect could not be found in previous simulation studies with a smaller number of measurement occasions. The proportionality of bias and number of measurement occasions should be considered when MLM-UN is used. The good news is that this proportionality can be compensated by means of large sample sizes. Accordingly, MLM-UN can be recommended even for small sample sizes for about three measurement occasions and for large sample sizes for about nine measurement occasions.

Multilevel landscape utilization of the Siberian flying squirrel: Scale effects on species habitat use.

PubMed

Remm, Jaanus; Hanski, Ilpo K; Tuominen, Sakari; Selonen, Vesa

2017-10-01

Animals use and select habitat at multiple hierarchical levels and at different spatial scales within each level. Still, there is little knowledge on the scale effects at different spatial levels of species occupancy patterns. The objective of this study was to examine nonlinear effects and optimal-scale landscape characteristics that affect occupancy of the Siberian flying squirrel, Pteromys volans , in South- and Mid-Finland. We used presence-absence data ( n  = 10,032 plots of 9 ha) and novel approach to separate the effects on site-, landscape-, and regional-level occupancy patterns. Our main results were: landscape variables predicted the placement of population patches at least twice as well as they predicted the occupancy of particular sites; the clear optimal value of preferred habitat cover for species landscape-level abundance is a surprisingly low value (10% within a 4 km buffer); landscape metrics exert different effects on species occupancy and abundance in high versus low population density regions of our study area. We conclude that knowledge of regional variation in landscape utilization will be essential for successful conservation of the species. The results also support the view that large-scale landscape variables have high predictive power in explaining species abundance. Our study demonstrates the complex response of species occurrence at different levels of population configuration on landscape structure. The study also highlights the need for data in large spatial scale to increase the precision of biodiversity mapping and prediction of future trends.

The value of cows in reference populations for genomic selection of new functional traits.

PubMed

Buch, L H; Kargo, M; Berg, P; Lassen, J; Sørensen, A C

2012-06-01

Today, almost all reference populations consist of progeny tested bulls. However, older progeny tested bulls do not have reliable estimated breeding values (EBV) for new traits. Thus, to be able to select for these new traits, it is necessary to build a reference population. We used a deterministic prediction model to test the hypothesis that the value of cows in reference populations depends on the availability of phenotypic records. To test the hypothesis, we investigated different strategies of building a reference population for a new functional trait over a 10-year period. The trait was either recorded on a large scale (30 000 cows per year) or on a small scale (2000 cows per year). For large-scale recording, we compared four scenarios where the reference population consisted of 30 sires; 30 sires and 170 test bulls; 30 sires and 2000 cows; or 30 sires, 2000 cows and 170 test bulls in the first year with measurements of the new functional trait. In addition to varying the make-up of the reference population, we also varied the heritability of the trait (h2 = 0.05 v. 0.15). The results showed that a reference population of test bulls, cows and sires results in the highest accuracy of the direct genomic values (DGV) for a new functional trait, regardless of its heritability. For small-scale recording, we compared two scenarios where the reference population consisted of the 2000 cows with phenotypic records or the 30 sires of these cows in the first year with measurements of the new functional trait. The results showed that a reference population of cows results in the highest accuracy of the DGV whether the heritability is 0.05 or 0.15, because variation is lost when phenotypic data on cows are summarized in EBV of their sires. The main conclusions from this study are: (i) the fewer phenotypic records, the larger effect of including cows in the reference population; (ii) for small-scale recording, the accuracy of the DGV will continue to increase for several years, whereas the increases in the accuracy of the DGV quickly decrease with large-scale recording; (iii) it is possible to achieve accuracies of the DGV that enable selection for new functional traits recorded on a large scale within 3 years from commencement of recording; and (iv) a higher heritability benefits a reference population of cows more than a reference population of bulls.

Does landscape fragmentation influence sex ratio of dioecious plants? A case study of Pistacia chinensis in the Thousand-Island Lake region of China.

PubMed

Yu, Lin; Lu, Jianbo

2011-01-01

The Thousand-Island Lake region in Zhejiang Province, China is a highly fragmented landscape with a clear point-in-time of fragmentation as a result of flooding to form the reservoir. Islands in the artificial lake were surveyed to examine how population sex ratio of a dioecious plant specie Pistacia chinensis B. was affected by landscape fragmentation. A natural population on the mainland near the lake was also surveyed for comparison. Population size, sex ratio and diameter at breast height (DBH) of individuals were measured over 2 years. More than 1,500 individuals, distributed in 31 populations, were studied. Soil nitrogen in the different populations was measured to identify the relationship between sex ratio and micro-environmental conditions. In accordance with the results of many other reports on biased sex ratio in relation to environmental gradient, we found that poor soil nitrogen areas fostered male-biased populations. In addition, the degree of sex ratio bias increased with decreasing population size and population connectivity. The biased sex ratios were only found in younger individuals (less than 50 years old) in small populations, while a stable 1∶1 sex ratio was found in the large population on the mainland. We concluded that the effects of landscape fragmentation on the dioecious population sex ratio were mainly achieved in relation to changing soil nitrogen conditions in patches and pollen limitation within and among populations. Large populations could maintain a more suitable environment in terms of nutrient conditions and pollen flow, subsequently maintaining a stable sex ratio in dioecious plant populations. Both micro-environmental factors and spatial structure should be considered in fragmented landscape for the conservation of dioecious plant species.

Estimating large carnivore populations at global scale based on spatial predictions of density and distribution – Application to the jaguar (Panthera onca)

PubMed Central

Robinson, Hugh S.; Abarca, Maria; Zeller, Katherine A.; Velasquez, Grisel; Paemelaere, Evi A. D.; Goldberg, Joshua F.; Payan, Esteban; Hoogesteijn, Rafael; Boede, Ernesto O.; Schmidt, Krzysztof; Lampo, Margarita; Viloria, Ángel L.; Carreño, Rafael; Robinson, Nathaniel; Lukacs, Paul M.; Nowak, J. Joshua; Salom-Pérez, Roberto; Castañeda, Franklin; Boron, Valeria; Quigley, Howard

2018-01-01

Broad scale population estimates of declining species are desired for conservation efforts. However, for many secretive species including large carnivores, such estimates are often difficult. Based on published density estimates obtained through camera trapping, presence/absence data, and globally available predictive variables derived from satellite imagery, we modelled density and occurrence of a large carnivore, the jaguar, across the species’ entire range. We then combined these models in a hierarchical framework to estimate the total population. Our models indicate that potential jaguar density is best predicted by measures of primary productivity, with the highest densities in the most productive tropical habitats and a clear declining gradient with distance from the equator. Jaguar distribution, in contrast, is determined by the combined effects of human impacts and environmental factors: probability of jaguar occurrence increased with forest cover, mean temperature, and annual precipitation and declined with increases in human foot print index and human density. Probability of occurrence was also significantly higher for protected areas than outside of them. We estimated the world’s jaguar population at 173,000 (95% CI: 138,000–208,000) individuals, mostly concentrated in the Amazon Basin; elsewhere, populations tend to be small and fragmented. The high number of jaguars results from the large total area still occupied (almost 9 million km2) and low human densities (< 1 person/km2) coinciding with high primary productivity in the core area of jaguar range. Our results show the importance of protected areas for jaguar persistence. We conclude that combining modelling of density and distribution can reveal ecological patterns and processes at global scales, can provide robust estimates for use in species assessments, and can guide broad-scale conservation actions. PMID:29579129

Evolving Use of Natriuretic Peptides as Part of Strategies for Heart Failure Prevention.

PubMed

McDonald, Ken; Wilkinson, Mark

2017-01-01

Heart failure (HF) remains one of the major cardiovascular challenges to the Western world. Once established, HF is characterized by compromised life expectancy and quality of life with considerable dependence on hospital care for episodic clinical deterioration. Much is understood about the risk factors that predispose to the development of HF. With such a broad range of factors, it is clear that there is a large population at risk, potentially in excess of 25% of the adult population. Therein lies the major challenge at the outset of our efforts to prevent HF. With such a large population at risk, how do we develop an effective prevention strategy? HF prevention requires a multimodal approach. In this review, we focus primarily on the role of natriuretic peptide (NP) as a tool in a prevention strategy. Prevention of HF is a major public health challenge, underlined by the concerning epidemiological trends, the associated costs, and the continued difficulty to find effective therapies for the growing number of patients with preserved systolic function HF. Population-based approaches focusing on lifestyle and risk factor control have made some impact but not to a satisfactory level and also tend to result in a uniform approach across a population with different risk profiles. Individualizing risk is therefore required, with emerging data indicating that NP-guided risk stratification and intervention can reduce downstream incident HF and other cardiovascular events. © 2016 American Association for Clinical Chemistry.

Short communication: Validation of 4 candidate causative trait variants in 2 cattle breeds using targeted sequence imputation.

PubMed

Pausch, Hubert; Wurmser, Christine; Reinhardt, Friedrich; Emmerling, Reiner; Fries, Ruedi

2015-06-01

Most association studies for pinpointing trait-associated variants are performed within breed. The availability of sequence data from key ancestors of several cattle breeds now enables immediate assessment of the frequency of trait-associated variants in populations different from the mapping population and their imputation into large validation populations. The objective of this study was to validate the effects of 4 putatively causative variants on milk production traits, male fertility, and stature in German Fleckvieh and Holstein-Friesian animals using targeted sequence imputation. We used whole-genome sequence data of 456 animals to impute 4 missense mutations in DGAT1, GHR, PRLR, and PROP1 into 10,363 Fleckvieh and 8,812 Holstein animals. The accuracy of the imputed genotypes exceeded 95% for all variants. Association testing with imputed variants revealed consistent antagonistic effects of the DGAT1 p.A232K and GHR p.F279Y variants on milk yield and protein and fat contents, respectively, in both breeds. The allele frequency of both polymorphisms has changed considerably in the past 20 yr, indicating that they were targets of recent selection for milk production traits. The PRLR p.S18N variant was associated with yield traits in Fleckvieh but not in Holstein, suggesting that it may be in linkage disequilibrium with a mutation affecting yield traits rather than being causal. The reported effects of the PROP1 p.H173R variant on milk production, male fertility, and stature could not be confirmed. Our results demonstrate that population-wide imputation of candidate causal variants from sequence data is feasible, enabling their rapid validation in large independent populations. Copyright © 2015 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Inter-class competition in stage-structured populations: effects of adult density on life-history traits of adult and juvenile common lizards.

PubMed

San-Jose, Luis M; Peñalver-Alcázar, Miguel; Huyghe, Katleen; Breedveld, Merel C; Fitze, Patrick S

2016-12-01

Ecological and evolutionary processes in natural populations are largely influenced by the population's stage-structure. Commonly, different classes have different competitive abilities, e.g., due to differences in body size, suggesting that inter-class competition may be important and largely asymmetric. However, experimental evidence states that inter-class competition, which is important, is rare and restricted to marine fish. Here, we manipulated the adult density in six semi-natural populations of the European common lizard, Zootoca vivipara, while holding juvenile density constant. Adult density affected juveniles, but not adults, in line with inter-class competition. High adult density led to lower juvenile survival and growth before hibernation. In contrast, juvenile survival after hibernation was higher in populations with high adult density, pointing to relaxed inter-class competition. As a result, annual survival was not affected by adult density, showing that differences in pre- and post-hibernation survival balanced each other out. The intensity of inter-class competition affected reproduction, performance, and body size in juveniles. Path analyses unravelled direct treatment effects on early growth (pre-hibernation) and no direct treatment effects on the parameters measured after hibernation. This points to allometry of treatment-induced differences in early growth, and it suggests that inter-class competition mainly affects the early growth of the competitively inferior class and thereby their future performance and reproduction. These results are in contrast with previous findings and, together with results in marine fish, suggest that the strength and direction of density dependence may depend on the degree of inter-class competition, and thus on the availability of resources used by the competing classes.

A sequential coalescent algorithm for chromosomal inversions

PubMed Central

Peischl, S; Koch, E; Guerrero, R F; Kirkpatrick, M

2013-01-01

Chromosomal inversions are common in natural populations and are believed to be involved in many important evolutionary phenomena, including speciation, the evolution of sex chromosomes and local adaptation. While recent advances in sequencing and genotyping methods are leading to rapidly increasing amounts of genome-wide sequence data that reveal interesting patterns of genetic variation within inverted regions, efficient simulation methods to study these patterns are largely missing. In this work, we extend the sequential Markovian coalescent, an approximation to the coalescent with recombination, to include the effects of polymorphic inversions on patterns of recombination. Results show that our algorithm is fast, memory-efficient and accurate, making it feasible to simulate large inversions in large populations for the first time. The SMC algorithm enables studies of patterns of genetic variation (for example, linkage disequilibria) and tests of hypotheses (using simulation-based approaches) that were previously intractable. PMID:23632894

Tracking rural-to-urban migration in China: Lessons from the 2005 inter-census population survey.

PubMed

Ebenstein, Avraham; Zhao, Yaohui

2015-01-01

We examined migration in China using the 2005 inter-census population survey, in which migrants were registered at both their place of original (hukou) residence and at their destination. We find evidence that the estimated number of internal migrants in China is extremely sensitive to the enumeration method. We estimate that the traditional destination-based survey method fails to account for more than a third of migrants found using comparable origin-based methods. The 'missing' migrants are disproportionately young, male, and holders of rural hukou. We find that origin-based methods are more effective at capturing migrants who travel short distances for short periods, whereas destination-based methods are more effective when entire households have migrated and no remaining family members are located at the hukou location. We conclude with a set of policy recommendations for the design of population surveys in countries with large migrant populations.

Trichotomous noise controlled signal amplification in a generalized Verhulst model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mankin, Romi; Soika, Erkki; Lumi, Neeme

2014-10-01

The long-time limit of the probability distribution and statistical moments for a population size are studied by means of a stochastic growth model with generalized Verhulst self-regulation. The effect of variable environment on the carrying capacity of a population is modeled by a multiplicative three-level Markovian noise and by a time periodic deterministic component. Exact expressions for the moments of the population size have been calculated. It is shown that an interplay of a small periodic forcing and colored noise can cause large oscillations of the mean population size. The conditions for the appearance of such a phenomenon are found and illustrated by graphs. Implications of the results on models of symbiotic metapopulations are also discussed. Particularly, it is demonstrated that the effect of noise-generated amplification of an input signal gets more pronounced as the intensity of symbiotic interaction increases.

Population structure and cultural geography of a folktale in Europe

PubMed Central

Ross, Robert M.; Greenhill, Simon J.; Atkinson, Quentin D.

2013-01-01

Despite a burgeoning science of cultural evolution, relatively little work has focused on the population structure of human cultural variation. By contrast, studies in human population genetics use a suite of tools to quantify and analyse spatial and temporal patterns of genetic variation within and between populations. Human genetic diversity can be explained largely as a result of migration and drift giving rise to gradual genetic clines, together with some discontinuities arising from geographical and cultural barriers to gene flow. Here, we adapt theory and methods from population genetics to quantify the influence of geography and ethnolinguistic boundaries on the distribution of 700 variants of a folktale in 31 European ethnolinguistic populations. We find that geographical distance and ethnolinguistic affiliation exert significant independent effects on folktale diversity and that variation between populations supports a clustering concordant with European geography. This pattern of geographical clines and clusters parallels the pattern of human genetic diversity in Europe, although the effects of geographical distance and ethnolinguistic boundaries are stronger for folktales than genes. Our findings highlight the importance of geography and population boundaries in models of human cultural variation and point to key similarities and differences between evolutionary processes operating on human genes and culture. PMID:23390109

Effects of white-nose syndrome on regional population patterns of 3 hibernating bat species.

PubMed

Ingersoll, Thomas E; Sewall, Brent J; Amelon, Sybill K

2016-10-01

Hibernating bats have undergone severe recent declines across the eastern United States, but the cause of these regional-scale declines has not been systematically evaluated. We assessed the influence of white-nose syndrome (an emerging bat disease caused by the fungus Pseudogymnoascus destructans, formerly Geomyces destructans) on large-scale, long-term population patterns in the little brown myotis (Myotis lucifugus), the northern myotis (Myotis septentrionalis), and the tricolored bat (Perimyotis subflavus). We modeled population trajectories for each species on the basis of an extensive data set of winter hibernacula counts of more than 1 million individual bats from a 4-state region over 13 years and with data on locations of hibernacula and first detections of white-nose syndrome at each hibernaculum. We used generalized additive mixed models to determine population change relative to expectations, that is, how population trajectories differed with a colony's infection status, how trajectories differed with distance from the point of introduction of white-nose syndrome, and whether declines were concordant with first local observation of the disease. Population trajectories in all species met at least one of the 3 expectations, but none met all 3. Our results suggest, therefore, that white-nose syndrome has affected regional populations differently than was previously understood and has not been the sole cause of declines. Specifically, our results suggest that in some areas and species, threats other than white-nose syndrome are also contributing to population declines, declines linked to white-nose syndrome have spread across large geographic areas with unexpected speed, and the disease or other threats led to declines in bat populations for years prior to disease detection. Effective conservation will require further research to mitigate impacts of white-nose syndrome, renewed attention to other threats to bats, and improved surveillance efforts to ensure early detection of white-nose syndrome. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Extensive long-distance pollen dispersal and highly outcrossed mating in historically small and disjunct populations of Acacia woodmaniorum (Fabaceae), a rare banded iron formation endemic.

PubMed

Millar, Melissa A; Coates, David J; Byrne, Margaret

2014-10-01

Understanding patterns of pollen dispersal and variation in mating systems provides insights into the evolutionary potential of plant species and how historically rare species with small disjunct populations persist over long time frames. This study aims to quantify the role of pollen dispersal and the mating system in maintaining contemporary levels of connectivity and facilitating persistence of small populations of the historically rare Acacia woodmaniorum. Progeny arrays of A. woodmaniorum were genotyped with nine polymorphic microsatellite markers. A low number of fathers contributed to seed within single pods; therefore, sampling to remove bias of correlated paternity was implemented for further analysis. Pollen immigration and mating system parameters were then assessed in eight populations of varying size and degree of isolation. Pollen immigration into small disjunct populations was extensive (mean minimum estimate 40 % and mean maximum estimate 57 % of progeny) and dispersal occurred over large distances (≤1870m). Pollen immigration resulted in large effective population sizes and was sufficient to ensure adaptive and inbreeding connectivity in small disjunct populations. High outcrossing (mean tm = 0·975) and a lack of apparent inbreeding suggested that a self-incompatibility mechanism is operating. Population parameters, including size and degree of geographic disjunction, were not useful predictors of pollen dispersal or components of the mating system. Extensive long-distance pollen dispersal and a highly outcrossed mating system are likely to play a key role in maintaining genetic diversity and limiting negative genetic effects of inbreeding and drift in small disjunct populations of A. woodmaniorum. It is proposed that maintenance of genetic connectivity through habitat and pollinator conservation will be a key factor in the persistence of this and other historically rare species with similar extensive long-distance pollen dispersal and highly outcrossed mating systems. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company.

Spatial heterogeneity in the effects of climate and density-dependence on dispersal in a house sparrow metapopulation

PubMed Central

Pärn, Henrik; Ringsby, Thor Harald; Jensen, Henrik; Sæther, Bernt-Erik

2012-01-01

Dispersal plays a key role in the response of populations to climate change and habitat fragmentation. Here, we use data from a long-term metapopulation study of a non-migratory bird, the house sparrow (Passer domesticus), to examine the influence of increasing spring temperature and density-dependence on natal dispersal rates and how these relationships depend on spatial variation in habitat quality. The effects of spring temperature and population size on dispersal rate depended on the habitat quality. Dispersal rate increased with temperature and population size on poor-quality islands without farms, where house sparrows were more exposed to temporal fluctuations in weather conditions and food availability. By contrast, dispersal rate was independent of spring temperature and population size on high-quality islands with farms, where house sparrows had access to food and shelter all the year around. This illustrates large spatial heterogeneity within the metapopulation in how population density and environmental fluctuations affect the dispersal process. PMID:21613299

Genetic variation affecting host-parasite interactions: major-effect quantitative trait loci affect the transmission of sigma virus in Drosophila melanogaster.

PubMed

Bangham, Jenny; Knott, Sara A; Kim, Kang-Wook; Young, Robert S; Jiggins, Francis M

2008-09-01

In natural populations, genetic variation affects resistance to disease. Whether that genetic variation comprises lots of small-effect polymorphisms or a small number of large-effect polymorphisms has implications for adaptation, selection and how genetic variation is maintained in populations. Furthermore, how much genetic variation there is, and the genes that underlie this variation, affects models of co-evolution between parasites and their hosts. We are studying the genetic variation that affects the resistance of Drosophila melanogaster to its natural pathogen--the vertically transmitted sigma virus. We have carried out three separate quantitative trait locus mapping analyses to map gene variants on the second chromosome that cause variation in the rate at which males transmit the infection to their offspring. All three crosses identified a locus in a similar chromosomal location that causes a large drop in the rate at which the virus is transmitted. We also found evidence for an additional smaller-effect quantitative trait locus elsewhere on the chromosome. Our data, together with previous experiments on the sigma virus and parasitoid wasps, indicate that the resistance of D. melanogaster to co-evolved pathogens is controlled by a limited number of major-effect polymorphisms.

Floaters may buffer the extinction risk of small populations: an empirical assessment

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

The high extinction risk of small populations is commonly explained by reductions in fecundity and breeder survival associated with demographic and environmental stochasticity. However, ecological theory suggests that population extinctions may also arise from reductions in the number of floaters able to replace the lost breeders. This can be particularly plausible under harsh fragmentation scenarios, where species must survive as small populations subjected to severe effects of stochasticity. Using a woodpecker study in fragmented habitats (2004–2016), we provide here empirical support for the largely neglected hypothesis that floaters buffer population extirpation risks. After controlling for population size, patch size and the intrinsic quality of habitat, populations in patches with floaters had a lower extinction probability than populations in patches without floaters (0.013 versus 0.131). Floaters, which often replace the lost breeders, were less likely to occur in small and low-quality patches, showing that population extirpations may arise from unnoticed reductions in floater numbers in poor-quality habitats. We argue that adequate pools of the typically overlooked floaters may buffer extirpation risks by reducing the detrimental impacts of demographic and environmental stochasticity. However, unravelling the influence of floaters in buffering stochastic effects and promoting population stability require additional studies in an ample array of species and stochastic scenarios. PMID:28424345

Floaters may buffer the extinction risk of small populations: an empirical assessment.

PubMed

Robles, Hugo; Ciudad, Carlos

2017-04-26

The high extinction risk of small populations is commonly explained by reductions in fecundity and breeder survival associated with demographic and environmental stochasticity. However, ecological theory suggests that population extinctions may also arise from reductions in the number of floaters able to replace the lost breeders. This can be particularly plausible under harsh fragmentation scenarios, where species must survive as small populations subjected to severe effects of stochasticity. Using a woodpecker study in fragmented habitats (2004-2016), we provide here empirical support for the largely neglected hypothesis that floaters buffer population extirpation risks. After controlling for population size, patch size and the intrinsic quality of habitat, populations in patches with floaters had a lower extinction probability than populations in patches without floaters (0.013 versus 0.131). Floaters, which often replace the lost breeders, were less likely to occur in small and low-quality patches, showing that population extirpations may arise from unnoticed reductions in floater numbers in poor-quality habitats. We argue that adequate pools of the typically overlooked floaters may buffer extirpation risks by reducing the detrimental impacts of demographic and environmental stochasticity. However, unravelling the influence of floaters in buffering stochastic effects and promoting population stability require additional studies in an ample array of species and stochastic scenarios. © 2017 The Author(s).

Changes in downed wood and forest structure after prescribed fire in ponderosa pine forests

Treesearch

Victoria Saab; Lisa Bate; John Lehmkuhl; Brett Dickson; Scott Story; Stephanie Jentsch; William Block

2006-01-01

Most prescribed fire plans focus on reducing wildfire hazards with little consideration given to effects on wildlife populations and their habitats. To evaluate effectiveness of prescribed burning in reducing fuels and to assess effects of fuels reduction on wildlife, we began a large-scale study known as the Birds and Burns Network in 2002. In this paper we analyze...

Integrative Lifecourse and Genetic Analysis of Military Working Dogs

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-12-01

done as the samples are collected in order to avoid experimental variability and batch effects . Detailed description and discussion of this task...associated loss of power to detect all associations but those of large effect sizes) and latent variables (e.g., population structure – addressed in...processes associated with tissue development and maintenance are thus grouped with external environmental effects . This in turn suggests how those

Evaluation of type 2 diabetes genetic risk variants in Chinese adults: findings from 93,000 individuals from the China Kadoorie Biobank.

PubMed

Gan, Wei; Walters, Robin G; Holmes, Michael V; Bragg, Fiona; Millwood, Iona Y; Banasik, Karina; Chen, Yiping; Du, Huaidong; Iona, Andri; Mahajan, Anubha; Yang, Ling; Bian, Zheng; Guo, Yu; Clarke, Robert J; Li, Liming; McCarthy, Mark I; Chen, Zhengming

2016-07-01

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have discovered many risk variants for type 2 diabetes. However, estimates of the contributions of risk variants to type 2 diabetes predisposition are often based on highly selected case-control samples, and reliable estimates of population-level effect sizes are missing, especially in non-European populations. The individual and cumulative effects of 59 established type 2 diabetes risk loci were measured in a population-based China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) study of 93,000 Chinese adults, including >7,100 diabetes cases. Association signals were directionally consistent between CKB and the original discovery GWAS: of 56 variants passing quality control, 48 showed the same direction of effect (binomial test, p = 2.3 × 10(-8)). We observed a consistent overall trend towards lower risk variant effect sizes in CKB than in case-control samples of GWAS meta-analyses (mean 19-22% decrease in log odds, p ≤ 0.0048), likely to reflect correction of both 'winner's curse' and spectrum bias effects. The association with risk of diabetes of a genetic risk score, based on lead variants at 25 loci considered to act through beta cell function, demonstrated significant interactions with several measures of adiposity (BMI, waist circumference [WC], WHR and percentage body fat [PBF]; all p interaction < 1 × 10(-4)), with a greater effect being observed in leaner adults. Our study provides further evidence of shared genetic architecture for type 2 diabetes between Europeans and East Asians. It also indicates that even very large GWAS meta-analyses may be vulnerable to substantial inflation of effect size estimates, compared with those observed in large-scale population-based cohort studies. Details of how to access China Kadoorie Biobank data and details of the data release schedule are available from www.ckbiobank.org/site/Data+Access .

Linking killer whale survival and prey abundance: food limitation in the oceans' apex predator?

PubMed Central

Ford, John K. B.; Ellis, Graeme M.; Olesiuk, Peter F.; Balcomb, Kenneth C.

2010-01-01

Killer whales (Orcinus orca) are large predators that occupy the top trophic position in the world's oceans and as such may have important roles in marine ecosystem dynamics. Although the possible top-down effects of killer whale predation on populations of their prey have received much recent attention, little is known of how the abundance of these predators may be limited by bottom-up processes. Here we show, using 25 years of demographic data from two populations of fish-eating killer whales in the northeastern Pacific Ocean, that population trends are driven largely by changes in survival, and that survival rates are strongly correlated with the availability of their principal prey species, Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha). Our results suggest that, although these killer whales may consume a variety of fish species, they are highly specialized and dependent on this single salmonid species to an extent that it is a limiting factor in their population dynamics. Other ecologically specialized killer whale populations may be similarly constrained to a narrow range of prey species by culturally inherited foraging strategies, and thus are limited in their ability to adapt rapidly to changing prey availability. PMID:19755531

Linking killer whale survival and prey abundance: food limitation in the oceans' apex predator?

PubMed

Ford, John K B; Ellis, Graeme M; Olesiuk, Peter F; Balcomb, Kenneth C

2010-02-23

Killer whales (Orcinus orca) are large predators that occupy the top trophic position in the world's oceans and as such may have important roles in marine ecosystem dynamics. Although the possible top-down effects of killer whale predation on populations of their prey have received much recent attention, little is known of how the abundance of these predators may be limited by bottom-up processes. Here we show, using 25 years of demographic data from two populations of fish-eating killer whales in the northeastern Pacific Ocean, that population trends are driven largely by changes in survival, and that survival rates are strongly correlated with the availability of their principal prey species, Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha). Our results suggest that, although these killer whales may consume a variety of fish species, they are highly specialized and dependent on this single salmonid species to an extent that it is a limiting factor in their population dynamics. Other ecologically specialized killer whale populations may be similarly constrained to a narrow range of prey species by culturally inherited foraging strategies, and thus are limited in their ability to adapt rapidly to changing prey availability.

So long to genetic diversity, and thanks for all the fish.

PubMed

Allendorf, Fred W; Berry, Oliver; Ryman, Nils

2014-01-01

The world faces a global fishing crisis. Wild marine fisheries comprise nearly 15% of all animal protein in the human diet, but, according to the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization, nearly 60% of all commercially important marine fish stocks are overexploited, recovering, or depleted (FAO 2012; Fig. 1). Some authors have suggested that the large population sizes of harvested marine fish make even collapsed populations resistant to the loss of genetic variation by genetic drift (e.g. Beverton 1990). In contrast, others have argued that the loss of alleles because of overfishing may actually be more dramatic in large populations than in small ones (Ryman et al. 1995). In this issue, Pinsky & Palumbi (2014) report that overfished populations have approximately 2% lower heterozygosity and 12% lower allelic richness than populations that are not overfished. They also performed simulations which suggest that their estimates likely underestimate the actual loss of rare alleles by a factor of three or four. This important paper shows that the harvesting of marine fish can have genetic effects that threaten the long-term sustainability of this valuable resource. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Response of predatory zooplankton populations to the experimental acidification of Little Rock Lake, Wisconsin

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sierszen, M.E.; Frost, T.M.

1993-01-01

To assess the effects of lake acidification on large predatory zooplankton, the authors monitored population levels of four limnetic taxa for 6 years in a lake with two basins, one of which was experimentally acidified (2 years at each of three levels: pH 5.6, 5.2 and 4.7). Concentrations of phantom midge (Chaoborus spp.), the most abundant large predator, remained similar in the treatment and reference basins until the fourth year (pH 5.2) when they increased in the treatment basin. In contrast, Epischura lacustris and Leptodora kindtii disappeared from limnetic samples, and water mites declined to near zero upon acidification. Treatmentmore » basin populations of E. lacustris declined sharply during the second year of acidification. The nature of the decline suggested sensitivity of an early life stage during the first year at pH 5.6. Leptodora kindtii showed no population response at pH 5.6, but declined to essentially zero at pH 5.2. Treatment basin populations of water mites fluctuated until declining in the fifth and sixth years (pH 4.7). These changes indicate a variety of direct and indirect responses to lake acidification.« less

Population Screening for Chronic Q-Fever Seven Years after a Major Outbreak

PubMed Central

Morroy, Gabriëlla; van der Hoek, Wim; Albers, Jelle; Coutinho, Roel A.; Bleeker-Rovers, Chantal P.; Schneeberger, Peter M.

2015-01-01

Introduction From 2007 through 2010, the Netherlands experienced a large Q-fever epidemic, with 4,107 notifications. The most serious complication of Q-fever is chronic Q-fever. Method In 2014, we contacted all 2,161 adult inhabitants of the first village in the Netherlands affected by the Q-fever epidemic and offered to test for antibodies against Coxiella burnetii using immunofluorescence assay (IFA) to screen for chronic infections and assess whether large-scale population screening elsewhere is warranted. Results Of the 1,517 participants, 33.8% were IFA-positive. Six IFA-positive participants had an IgG phase I titer ≥1:512. Two of these six participants were previously diagnosed with chronic Q-fever. Chronic infection was diagnosed in one of the other four participants after clinical examination. Conclusions Seven years after the initial outbreak, seroprevalence remains high, but the yield of screening the general population for chronic Q-fever is low. A policy of screening known high-risk groups for chronic Q-fever in outbreak areas directly following an outbreak might be more efficient than population screening. A cost-effectiveness analysis should also be performed before initiating a population screening program for chronic Q-fever. PMID:26132155

Population trends from the North American Breeding Bird Survey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peterjohn, B.G.; Sauer, J.R.; Robbins, C.S.; Martin, Thomas E.; Finch, Deborah M.

1995-01-01

INTRODUCTION: Most Neotropical migrant birds are difficult to count accurately and are moderately common over large breeding distributions. Consequently, little historical information exists on their large-scale population changes, and most of this information is anecdotal. Surveys begun in this century such as Breeding Bird Censuses and Christmas Bird Counts have the potential to provide this information, but only the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) achieves the extensive continental coverage necessary to document population changes for most Neotropical migrant birds. Conservationists and ecologists have begun to use BBS data to estimate population trends, but there is still widespread confusion over exactly what these data show regarding population changes. In this chapter, we review the current state of knowledge regarding population changes in Neotropical migrant birds and the methods used to analyze these changes. The primary emphasis is on the BBS (Robbins et al. 1986) because this survey provides the best available data for estimating trends of Neotropical migrants on a continental scale. To address questions about methods of analyzing survey data, we review and compare some alternative methods of analyzing BBS data. We also discuss the effectiveness of the BBS in sampling Neotropical migrant species, and review possibilities for use of alternative data sets to verify trends from the BBS.

The Effect of Foreign Language Study in Tennessee Middle Schools on Mathematics Achievement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tobias, Keith S.

2012-01-01

This quantitative method, quasi-experimental design study examined the possible effect of foreign language study in Tennessee middle schools on mathematics achievement. The population was 1,708 historical student test scores of a single cohort spanning 6th through 8th Grades from the same schools within a large urban public school district. NCLB…

Comparative effectiveness research in cancer with observational data.

PubMed

Giordano, Sharon H

2015-01-01

Observational studies are increasingly being used for comparative effectiveness research. These studies can have the greatest impact when randomized trials are not feasible or when randomized studies have not included the population or outcomes of interest. However, careful attention must be paid to study design to minimize the likelihood of selection biases. Analytic techniques, such as multivariable regression modeling, propensity score analysis, and instrumental variable analysis, also can also be used to help address confounding. Oncology has many existing large and clinically rich observational databases that can be used for comparative effectiveness research. With careful study design, observational studies can produce valid results to assess the benefits and harms of a treatment or intervention in representative real-world populations.

Collapse of the world's largest herbivores.

PubMed

Ripple, William J; Newsome, Thomas M; Wolf, Christopher; Dirzo, Rodolfo; Everatt, Kristoffer T; Galetti, Mauro; Hayward, Matt W; Kerley, Graham I H; Levi, Taal; Lindsey, Peter A; Macdonald, David W; Malhi, Yadvinder; Painter, Luke E; Sandom, Christopher J; Terborgh, John; Van Valkenburgh, Blaire

2015-05-01

Large wild herbivores are crucial to ecosystems and human societies. We highlight the 74 largest terrestrial herbivore species on Earth (body mass ≥100 kg), the threats they face, their important and often overlooked ecosystem effects, and the conservation efforts needed to save them and their predators from extinction. Large herbivores are generally facing dramatic population declines and range contractions, such that ~60% are threatened with extinction. Nearly all threatened species are in developing countries, where major threats include hunting, land-use change, and resource depression by livestock. Loss of large herbivores can have cascading effects on other species including large carnivores, scavengers, mesoherbivores, small mammals, and ecological processes involving vegetation, hydrology, nutrient cycling, and fire regimes. The rate of large herbivore decline suggests that ever-larger swaths of the world will soon lack many of the vital ecological services these animals provide, resulting in enormous ecological and social costs.

Collapse of the world’s largest herbivores

PubMed Central

Ripple, William J.; Newsome, Thomas M.; Wolf, Christopher; Dirzo, Rodolfo; Everatt, Kristoffer T.; Galetti, Mauro; Hayward, Matt W.; Kerley, Graham I. H.; Levi, Taal; Lindsey, Peter A.; Macdonald, David W.; Malhi, Yadvinder; Painter, Luke E.; Sandom, Christopher J.; Terborgh, John; Van Valkenburgh, Blaire

2015-01-01

Large wild herbivores are crucial to ecosystems and human societies. We highlight the 74 largest terrestrial herbivore species on Earth (body mass ≥100 kg), the threats they face, their important and often overlooked ecosystem effects, and the conservation efforts needed to save them and their predators from extinction. Large herbivores are generally facing dramatic population declines and range contractions, such that ~60% are threatened with extinction. Nearly all threatened species are in developing countries, where major threats include hunting, land-use change, and resource depression by livestock. Loss of large herbivores can have cascading effects on other species including large carnivores, scavengers, mesoherbivores, small mammals, and ecological processes involving vegetation, hydrology, nutrient cycling, and fire regimes. The rate of large herbivore decline suggests that ever-larger swaths of the world will soon lack many of the vital ecological services these animals provide, resulting in enormous ecological and social costs. PMID:26601172

A smartphone-based system for automated detection of walking.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-08-01

Walking is the most effective mode of travel to access transit: transit hubs with higher residential and employment densities have higher : ridership levels because they serve areas where a large population is within a short walk of transit service. ...

Effects of Group Size and Lack of Sphericity on the Recovery of Clusters in K-means Cluster Analysis.

PubMed

Craen, Saskia de; Commandeur, Jacques J F; Frank, Laurence E; Heiser, Willem J

2006-06-01

K-means cluster analysis is known for its tendency to produce spherical and equally sized clusters. To assess the magnitude of these effects, a simulation study was conducted, in which populations were created with varying departures from sphericity and group sizes. An analysis of the recovery of clusters in the samples taken from these populations showed a significant effect of lack of sphericity and group size. This effect was, however, not as large as expected, with still a recovery index of more than 0.5 in the "worst case scenario." An interaction effect between the two data aspects was also found. The decreasing trend in the recovery of clusters for increasing departures from sphericity is different for equal and unequal group sizes.

RAPID EVOLUTION CAUSED BY POLLINATOR LOSS IN MIMULUS GUTTATUS

PubMed Central

Bodbyl Roels, Sarah A.; Kelly, John K.

2018-01-01

Anthropogenic perturbations including habitat loss and emerging disease are changing pollinator communities and generating novel selection pressures on plant populations. Disruption of plant–pollinator relationships is predicted to cause plant mating system evolution, although this process has not been directly observed. This study demonstrates the immediate evolutionary effects of pollinator loss within experimental populations of a predominately outcrossing wildflower. Initially equivalent populations evolved for five generations within two pollination treatments: abundant bumblebee pollinators versus no pollinators. The populations without pollinators suffered greatly reduced fitness in early generations but rebounded as they evolved an improved ability to self-fertilize. All populations diverged in floral, developmental, and life-history traits, but only a subset of characters showed clear association with pollination treatment. Pronounced treatment effects were noted for anther–stigma separation and autogamous seed set. Dramatic allele frequency changes at two chromosomal polymorphisms occurred in the no pollinator populations, explaining a large fraction of divergence in pollen viability. The pattern of phenotypic and genetic changes in this experiment favors a sequential model for the evolution of the multitrait “selfing syndrome” observed throughout angiosperms. PMID:21884055

Rapid evolution caused by pollinator loss in Mimulus guttatus.

PubMed

Roels, Sarah A Bodbyl; Kelly, John K

2011-09-01

Anthropogenic perturbations including habitat loss and emerging disease are changing pollinator communities and generating novel selection pressures on plant populations. Disruption of plant-pollinator relationships is predicted to cause plant mating system evolution, although this process has not been directly observed. This study demonstrates the immediate evolutionary effects of pollinator loss within experimental populations of a predominately outcrossing wildflower. Initially equivalent populations evolved for five generations within two pollination treatments: abundant bumblebee pollinators versus no pollinators. The populations without pollinators suffered greatly reduced fitness in early generations but rebounded as they evolved an improved ability to self-fertilize. All populations diverged in floral, developmental, and life-history traits, but only a subset of characters showed clear association with pollination treatment. Pronounced treatment effects were noted for anther-stigma separation and autogamous seed set. Dramatic allele frequency changes at two chromosomal polymorphisms occurred in the no pollinator populations, explaining a large fraction of divergence in pollen viability. The pattern of phenotypic and genetic changes in this experiment favors a sequential model for the evolution of the multitrait "selfing syndrome" observed throughout angiosperms. © 2011 The Author(s).

Population trends, bend use relative to available habitat and within-river-bend habitat use of eight indicator species of Missouri and Lower Kansas River benthic fishes: 15 years after baseline assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wildhaber, Mark L.; Yang, Wen-Hsi; Arab, Ali

2016-01-01

A baseline assessment of the Missouri River fish community and species-specific habitat use patterns conducted from 1996 to 1998 provided the first comprehensive analysis of Missouri River benthic fish population trends and habitat use in the Missouri and Lower Yellowstone rivers, exclusive of reservoirs, and provided the foundation for the present Pallid Sturgeon Population Assessment Program (PSPAP). Data used in such studies are frequently zero inflated. To address this issue, the zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) model was applied. This follow-up study is based on PSPAP data collected up to 15 years later along with new understanding of how habitat characteristics among and within bends affect habitat use of fish species targeted by PSPAP, including pallid sturgeon. This work demonstrated that a large-scale, large-river, PSPAP-type monitoring program can be an effective tool for assessing population trends and habitat usage of large-river fish species. Using multiple gears, PSPAP was effective in monitoring shovelnose and pallid sturgeons, sicklefin, shoal and sturgeon chubs, sand shiner, blue sucker and sauger. For all species, the relationship between environmental variables and relative abundance differed, somewhat, among river segments suggesting the importance of the overall conditions of Upper and Middle Missouri River and Lower Missouri and Kansas rivers on the habitat usage patterns exhibited. Shoal and sicklefin chubs exhibited many similar habitat usage patterns; blue sucker and shovelnose sturgeon also shared similar responses. For pallid sturgeon, the primary focus of PSPAP, relative abundance tended to increase in Upper and Middle Missouri River paralleling stocking efforts, whereas no evidence of an increasing relative abundance was found in the Lower Missouri River despite stocking.

Multidomain lifestyle intervention benefits a large elderly population at risk for cognitive decline and dementia regardless of baseline characteristics: The FINGER trial.

PubMed

Rosenberg, Anna; Ngandu, Tiia; Rusanen, Minna; Antikainen, Riitta; Bäckman, Lars; Havulinna, Satu; Hänninen, Tuomo; Laatikainen, Tiina; Lehtisalo, Jenni; Levälahti, Esko; Lindström, Jaana; Paajanen, Teemu; Peltonen, Markku; Soininen, Hilkka; Stigsdotter-Neely, Anna; Strandberg, Timo; Tuomilehto, Jaakko; Solomon, Alina; Kivipelto, Miia

2018-03-01

The 2-year Finnish Geriatric Intervention Study to Prevent Cognitive Impairment and Disability (FINGER) multidomain lifestyle intervention trial (NCT01041989) demonstrated beneficial effects on cognition. We investigated whether sociodemographics, socioeconomic status, baseline cognition, or cardiovascular factors influenced intervention effects on cognition. The FINGER recruited 1260 people from the general Finnish population (60-77 years, at risk for dementia). Participants were randomized 1:1 to multidomain intervention (diet, exercise, cognition, and vascular risk management) and regular health advice. Primary outcome was change in cognition (Neuropsychological Test Battery z-score). Prespecified analyses to investigate whether participants' characteristics modified response to intervention were carried out using mixed-model repeated-measures analyses. Sociodemographics (sex, age, and education), socioeconomic status (income), cognition (Mini-Mental State Examination), cardiovascular factors (body mass index, blood pressure, cholesterol, fasting glucose, and overall cardiovascular risk), and cardiovascular comorbidity did not modify response to intervention (P-values for interaction > .05). The FINGER intervention was beneficial regardless of participants' characteristics and can thus be implemented in a large elderly population at increased risk for dementia. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evidence That Marine Reserves Enhance Resilience to Climatic Impacts

PubMed Central

Micheli, Fiorenza; Saenz-Arroyo, Andrea; Greenley, Ashley; Vazquez, Leonardo; Espinoza Montes, Jose Antonio; Rossetto, Marisa; De Leo, Giulio A.

2012-01-01

Establishment of marine protected areas, including fully protected marine reserves, is one of the few management tools available for local communities to combat the deleterious effect of large scale environmental impacts, including global climate change, on ocean ecosystems. Despite the common hope that reserves play this role, empirical evidence of the effectiveness of local protection against global problems is lacking. Here we show that marine reserves increase the resilience of marine populations to a mass mortality event possibly caused by climate-driven hypoxia. Despite high and widespread adult mortality of benthic invertebrates in Baja California, Mexico, that affected populations both within and outside marine reserves, juvenile replenishment of the species that supports local economies, the pink abalone Haliotis corrugata, remained stable within reserves because of large body size and high egg production of the protected adults. Thus, local protection provided resilience through greater resistance and faster recovery of protected populations. Moreover, this benefit extended to adjacent unprotected areas through larval spillover across the edges of the reserves. While climate change mitigation is being debated, coastal communities have few tools to slow down negative impacts of global environmental shifts. These results show that marine protected areas can provide such protection. PMID:22855690

Evidence that marine reserves enhance resilience to climatic impacts.

PubMed

Micheli, Fiorenza; Saenz-Arroyo, Andrea; Greenley, Ashley; Vazquez, Leonardo; Espinoza Montes, Jose Antonio; Rossetto, Marisa; De Leo, Giulio A

2012-01-01

Establishment of marine protected areas, including fully protected marine reserves, is one of the few management tools available for local communities to combat the deleterious effect of large scale environmental impacts, including global climate change, on ocean ecosystems. Despite the common hope that reserves play this role, empirical evidence of the effectiveness of local protection against global problems is lacking. Here we show that marine reserves increase the resilience of marine populations to a mass mortality event possibly caused by climate-driven hypoxia. Despite high and widespread adult mortality of benthic invertebrates in Baja California, Mexico, that affected populations both within and outside marine reserves, juvenile replenishment of the species that supports local economies, the pink abalone Haliotis corrugata, remained stable within reserves because of large body size and high egg production of the protected adults. Thus, local protection provided resilience through greater resistance and faster recovery of protected populations. Moreover, this benefit extended to adjacent unprotected areas through larval spillover across the edges of the reserves. While climate change mitigation is being debated, coastal communities have few tools to slow down negative impacts of global environmental shifts. These results show that marine protected areas can provide such protection.

Recent selective sweeps in North American Drosophila melanogaster show signatures of soft sweeps.

PubMed

Garud, Nandita R; Messer, Philipp W; Buzbas, Erkan O; Petrov, Dmitri A

2015-02-01

Adaptation from standing genetic variation or recurrent de novo mutation in large populations should commonly generate soft rather than hard selective sweeps. In contrast to a hard selective sweep, in which a single adaptive haplotype rises to high population frequency, in a soft selective sweep multiple adaptive haplotypes sweep through the population simultaneously, producing distinct patterns of genetic variation in the vicinity of the adaptive site. Current statistical methods were expressly designed to detect hard sweeps and most lack power to detect soft sweeps. This is particularly unfortunate for the study of adaptation in species such as Drosophila melanogaster, where all three confirmed cases of recent adaptation resulted in soft selective sweeps and where there is evidence that the effective population size relevant for recent and strong adaptation is large enough to generate soft sweeps even when adaptation requires mutation at a specific single site at a locus. Here, we develop a statistical test based on a measure of haplotype homozygosity (H12) that is capable of detecting both hard and soft sweeps with similar power. We use H12 to identify multiple genomic regions that have undergone recent and strong adaptation in a large population sample of fully sequenced Drosophila melanogaster strains from the Drosophila Genetic Reference Panel (DGRP). Visual inspection of the top 50 candidates reveals that in all cases multiple haplotypes are present at high frequencies, consistent with signatures of soft sweeps. We further develop a second haplotype homozygosity statistic (H2/H1) that, in combination with H12, is capable of differentiating hard from soft sweeps. Surprisingly, we find that the H12 and H2/H1 values for all top 50 peaks are much more easily generated by soft rather than hard sweeps. We discuss the implications of these results for the study of adaptation in Drosophila and in species with large census population sizes.

Different Evolutionary Paths to Complexity for Small and Large Populations of Digital Organisms

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

A major aim of evolutionary biology is to explain the respective roles of adaptive versus non-adaptive changes in the evolution of complexity. While selection is certainly responsible for the spread and maintenance of complex phenotypes, this does not automatically imply that strong selection enhances the chance for the emergence of novel traits, that is, the origination of complexity. Population size is one parameter that alters the relative importance of adaptive and non-adaptive processes: as population size decreases, selection weakens and genetic drift grows in importance. Because of this relationship, many theories invoke a role for population size in the evolution of complexity. Such theories are difficult to test empirically because of the time required for the evolution of complexity in biological populations. Here, we used digital experimental evolution to test whether large or small asexual populations tend to evolve greater complexity. We find that both small and large—but not intermediate-sized—populations are favored to evolve larger genomes, which provides the opportunity for subsequent increases in phenotypic complexity. However, small and large populations followed different evolutionary paths towards these novel traits. Small populations evolved larger genomes by fixing slightly deleterious insertions, while large populations fixed rare beneficial insertions that increased genome size. These results demonstrate that genetic drift can lead to the evolution of complexity in small populations and that purifying selection is not powerful enough to prevent the evolution of complexity in large populations. PMID:27923053

The development of universal health insurance coverage in Thailand: Challenges of population aging and informal economy.

PubMed

Hsu, Minchung; Huang, Xianguo; Yupho, Somrasri

2015-11-01

This paper quantitatively investigates the sustainability of the universal health insurance coverage (UHI) system in Thailand while taking into account the country's rapidly aging population and large informal labor sector. We examine the effects of population aging and informal employment across three tax options for financing the UHI. A modern dynamic general equilibrium framework is utilized to conduct policy experiments and welfare analysis. In the case of labor income tax being used to finance the cost of UHI, an additional 11-15% of labor tax will be required with the 2050 population age structure, compared with the 2005 benchmark economy. We also find that an expansion of income tax base to the informal sector can substantially alleviate the tax burden. Based on welfare comparisons across the alternative tax options, the labor income tax is the most preferred because the inequality between formal/informal sectors is large. If the informal sector cannot avoid labor income tax, capital tax will be preferred over labor and consumption taxes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating population genetic parameters and comparing model goodness-of-fit using DNA sequences with error

PubMed Central

Liu, Xiaoming; Fu, Yun-Xin; Maxwell, Taylor J.; Boerwinkle, Eric

2010-01-01

It is known that sequencing error can bias estimation of evolutionary or population genetic parameters. This problem is more prominent in deep resequencing studies because of their large sample size n, and a higher probability of error at each nucleotide site. We propose a new method based on the composite likelihood of the observed SNP configurations to infer population mutation rate θ = 4Neμ, population exponential growth rate R, and error rate ɛ, simultaneously. Using simulation, we show the combined effects of the parameters, θ, n, ɛ, and R on the accuracy of parameter estimation. We compared our maximum composite likelihood estimator (MCLE) of θ with other θ estimators that take into account the error. The results show the MCLE performs well when the sample size is large or the error rate is high. Using parametric bootstrap, composite likelihood can also be used as a statistic for testing the model goodness-of-fit of the observed DNA sequences. The MCLE method is applied to sequence data on the ANGPTL4 gene in 1832 African American and 1045 European American individuals. PMID:19952140

Emergent patterns in interacting neuronal sub-populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamal, Neeraj Kumar; Sinha, Sudeshna

2015-05-01

We investigate an ensemble of coupled model neurons, consisting of groups of varying sizes and intrinsic dynamics, ranging from periodic to chaotic, where the inter-group coupling interaction is effectively like a dynamic signal from a different sub-population. We observe that the minority group can significantly influence the majority group. For instance, when a small chaotic group is coupled to a large periodic group, the chaotic group de-synchronizes. However, counter-intuitively, when a small periodic group couples strongly to a large chaotic group, it leads to complete synchronization in the majority chaotic population, which also spikes at the frequency of the small periodic group. It then appears that the small group of periodic neurons can act like a pacemaker for the whole network. Further, we report the existence of varied clustering patterns, ranging from sets of synchronized clusters to anti-phase clusters, governed by the interplay of the relative sizes and dynamics of the sub-populations. So these results have relevance in understanding how a group can influence the synchrony of another group of dynamically different elements, reminiscent of event-related synchronization/de-synchronization in complex networks.

Changes in Land Surface Water Dynamics since the 1990s and Relation to Population Pressure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prigent, C.; Papa, F.; Aires, F.; Jimenez, C.; Rossow, W. B.; Matthews, E.

2012-01-01

We developed a remote sensing approach based on multi-satellite observations, which provides an unprecedented estimate of monthly distribution and area of land-surface open water over the whole globe. Results for 1993 to 2007 exhibit a large seasonal and inter-annual variability of the inundation extent with an overall decline in global average maximum inundated area of 6% during the fifteen-year period, primarily in tropical and subtropical South America and South Asia. The largest declines of open water are found where large increases in population have occurred over the last two decades, suggesting a global scale effect of human activities on continental surface freshwater: denser population can impact local hydrology by reducing freshwater extent, by draining marshes and wetlands, and by increasing water withdrawals. Citation: Prigent, C., F. Papa, F. Aires, C. Jimenez, W. B. Rossow, and E. Matthews (2012), Changes in land surface water dynamics since the 1990s and relation to population pressure, in section 4, insisting on the potential applications of the wetland dataset.

The roles of large top predators in coastal ecosystems: new insights from long term ecological research

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rosenblatt, Adam E.; Heithaus, Michael R.; Mather, Martha E.; Matich, Philip; Nifong, James C.; Ripple, William J.; Silliman, Brian R.

2013-01-01

During recent human history, human activities such as overhunting and habitat destruction have severely impacted many large top predator populations around the world. Studies from a variety of ecosystems show that loss or diminishment of top predator populations can have serious consequences for population and community dynamics and ecosystem stability. However, there are relatively few studies of the roles of large top predators in coastal ecosystems, so that we do not yet completely understand what could happen to coastal areas if large top predators are extirpated or significantly reduced in number. This lack of knowledge is surprising given that coastal areas around the globe are highly valued and densely populated by humans, and thus coastal large top predator populations frequently come into conflict with coastal human populations. This paper reviews what is known about the ecological roles of large top predators in coastal systems and presents a synthesis of recent work from three coastal eastern US Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) sites where long-term studies reveal what appear to be common themes relating to the roles of large top predators in coastal systems. We discuss three specific themes: (1) large top predators acting as mobile links between disparate habitats, (2) large top predators potentially affecting nutrient and biogeochemical dynamics through localized behaviors, and (3) individual specialization of large top predator behaviors. We also discuss how research within the LTER network has led to enhanced understanding of the ecological roles of coastal large top predators. Highlighting this work is intended to encourage further investigation of the roles of large top predators across diverse coastal aquatic habitats and to better inform researchers and ecosystem managers about the importance of large top predators for coastal ecosystem health and stability.

Effects of air pollution on infant and children respiratory mortality in four large Latin-American cities.

PubMed

Gouveia, Nelson; Junger, Washington Leite

2018-01-01

Air pollution is an important public health concern especially for children who are particularly susceptible. Latin America has a large children population, is highly urbanized and levels of pollution are substantially high, making the potential health impact of air pollution quite large. We evaluated the effect of air pollution on children respiratory mortality in four large urban centers: Mexico City, Santiago, Chile, and Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro in Brazil. Generalized Additive Models in Poisson regression was used to fit daily time-series of mortality due to respiratory diseases in infants and children, and levels of PM 10 and O 3 . Single lag and constrained polynomial distributed lag models were explored. Analyses were carried out per cause for each age group and each city. Fixed- and random-effects meta-analysis was conducted in order to combine the city-specific results in a single summary estimate. These cities host nearly 43 million people and pollution levels were above the WHO guidelines. For PM 10 the percentage increase in risk of death due to respiratory diseases in infants in a fixed effect model was 0.47% (0.09-0.85). For respiratory deaths in children 1-5 years old, the increase in risk was 0.58% (0.08-1.08) while a higher effect was observed for lower respiratory infections (LRI) in children 1-14 years old [1.38% (0.91-1.85)]. For O 3 , the only summarized estimate statistically significant was for LRI in infants. Analysis by season showed effects of O 3 in the warm season for respiratory diseases in infants, while negative effects were observed for respiratory and LRI deaths in children. We provided comparable mortality impact estimates of air pollutants across these cities and age groups. This information is important because many public policies aimed at preventing the adverse effects of pollution on health consider children as the population group that deserves the highest protection. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Distributions of occupied and vacant butterfly habitats in fragmented landscapes.

PubMed

Thomas, C D; Thomas, J A; Warren, M S

1992-12-01

We found several rare UK butterflies to be restricted to relatively large and non-isolated habitat patches, while small patches and those that are isolated from population sources remain vacant. These patterns of occurrence are generated by the dynamic processes of local extinction and colonization. Habitat patches act as terrestrial archipelagos in which long-term population persistence, and hence effective long-term conservation, rely on networks of suitable habitats, sufficiently close to allow natural dispersal.

An evaluation of the use of ERTS-1 satellite imagery for grizzly bear habitat analysis. [Montana

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Varney, J. R.; Craighead, J. J.; Sumner, J. S.

1974-01-01

Improved classification and mapping of grizzly habitat will permit better estimates of population density and distribution, and allow accurate evaluation of the potential effects of changes in land use, hunting regulation, and management policies on existing populations. Methods of identifying favorable habitat from ERTS-1 multispectral scanner imagery were investigated and described. This technique could reduce the time and effort required to classify large wilderness areas in the Western United States.

Charting the Course for Ocean Science in the United States for the Next Decade: An Ocean Research Priorities Plan and Implementation Strategy

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-01-26

ocean affects calcifying organisms, such as corals , with significant effects to reefs , the ecosystems they support, and their ability to pro- tect...water coral reefs , to open- ocean systems. For example, increasing ocean acidity, altered biogeochemistry, changing current patterns, loss of sea ice...for example, large swings in the populations of commercial fisheries, changes in seabird-population distributions, and coral - reef -bleaching events

Population dynamics in an intermittent refuge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colombo, E. H.; Anteneodo, C.

2016-10-01

Population dynamics is constrained by the environment, which needs to obey certain conditions to support population growth. We consider a standard model for the evolution of a single species population density, which includes reproduction, competition for resources, and spatial spreading, while subject to an external harmful effect. The habitat is spatially heterogeneous, there existing a refuge where the population can be protected. Temporal variability is introduced by the intermittent character of the refuge. This scenario can apply to a wide range of situations, from a laboratory setting where bacteria can be protected by a blinking mask from ultraviolet radiation, to large-scale ecosystems, like a marine reserve where there can be seasonal fishing prohibitions. Using analytical and numerical tools, we investigate the asymptotic behavior of the total population as a function of the size and characteristic time scales of the refuge. We obtain expressions for the minimal size required for population survival, in the slow and fast time scale limits.

Natural selection and neutral evolution jointly drive population divergence between alpine and lowland ecotypes of the allopolyploid plant Anemone multifida (Ranunculaceae).

PubMed

McEwen, Jamie R; Vamosi, Jana C; Rogers, Sean M

2013-01-01

Population differentiation can be driven in large part by natural selection, but selectively neutral evolution can play a prominent role in shaping patters of population divergence. The decomposition of the evolutionary history of populations into the relative effects of natural selection and selectively neutral evolution enables an understanding of the causes of population divergence and adaptation. In this study, we examined heterogeneous genomic divergence between alpine and lowland ecotypes of the allopolyploid plant, Anemone multifida. Using peak height and dominant AFLP data, we quantified population differentiation at non-outlier (neutral) and outlier loci to determine the potential contribution of natural selection and selectively neutral evolution to population divergence. We found 13 candidate loci, corresponding to 2.7% of loci, with signatures of divergent natural selection between alpine and lowland populations and between alpine populations (Fst  = 0.074-0.445 at outlier loci), but neutral population differentiation was also evident between alpine populations (FST  = 0.041-0.095 at neutral loci). By examining population structure at both neutral and outlier loci, we determined that the combined effects of selection and neutral evolution are associated with the divergence of alpine populations, which may be linked to extreme abiotic conditions and isolation between alpine sites. The presence of outlier levels of genetic variation in structured populations underscores the importance of separately analyzing neutral and outlier loci to infer the relative role of divergent natural selection and neutral evolution in population divergence.

The Sample for the Sustaining Effects Study and Projections of its Characteristic to the National Population. Technical Report No. 1 from the Study of Sustaining Effects of Compensatory Education on Basic Skills.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hoepfner, Ralph; And Others

Sampling techniques used in "A Study of the Sustaining Effects of Compensatory Education" are described in detail. The Sustaining Effects Study is a large, multi-faceted study of issues related to the compensatory education of elementary school students. Public elementary schools that include grades between one and six are eligible for…

Wildland fire smoke and human health.

PubMed

Cascio, Wayne E

2018-05-15

The natural cycle of landscape fire maintains the ecological health of the land, yet adverse health effects associated with exposure to emissions from wildfire produce public health and clinical challenges. Systematic reviews conclude that a positive association exists between exposure to wildfire smoke or wildfire particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) and all-cause mortality and respiratory morbidity. Respiratory morbidity includes asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), bronchitis and pneumonia. The epidemiological data linking wildfire smoke exposure to cardiovascular mortality and morbidity is mixed, and inconclusive. More studies are needed to define the risk for common and costly clinical cardiovascular outcomes. Susceptible populations include people with respiratory and possibly cardiovascular diseases, middle-aged and older adults, children, pregnant women and the fetus. The increasing frequency of large wildland fires, the expansion of the wildland-urban interface, the area between unoccupied land and human development; and an increasing and aging U.S. population are increasing the number of people at-risk from wildfire smoke, thus highlighting the necessity for broadening stakeholder cooperation to address the health effects of wildfire. While much is known, many questions remain and require further population-based, clinical and occupational health research. Health effects measured over much wider geographical areas and for longer periods time will better define the risk for adverse health outcomes, identify the sensitive populations and assess the influence of social factors on the relationship between exposure and health outcomes. Improving exposure models and access to large clinical databases foreshadow improved risk analysis facilitating more effective risk management. Fuel and smoke management remains an important component for protecting population health. Improved smoke forecasting and translation of environmental health science into communication of actionable information for use by public health officials, healthcare professionals and the public is needed to motivate behaviors that lower exposure and protect public health, particularly among those at high risk. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Large-scale adaptive differentiation in the alpine perennial herb Arabis alpina.

PubMed

Toräng, Per; Wunder, Jörg; Obeso, José Ramón; Herzog, Michel; Coupland, George; Ågren, Jon

2015-04-01

Information about the incidence and magnitude of local adaptation can help to predict the response of natural populations to a changing environment, and should be of particular interest in arctic and alpine environments where the effects of climate change are expected to be severe. To quantify adaptive differentiation in the arctic-alpine perennial herb Arabis alpina, we conducted reciprocal transplant experiments for 3 yr between Spanish and Scandinavian populations. At the sites of one Spanish and one Scandinavian population, we planted seedlings representing two Spanish and four Scandinavian populations, and recorded survival, flowering propensity and fecundity. The experiment was replicated in two subsequent years. The results demonstrate strong adaptive differentiation between A. alpina populations from the two regions. At the field site in Spain, survival and fruit production of Spanish populations were higher than those of Scandinavian populations, while the opposite was true at the site in Scandinavia, and these differences were consistent across years. By comparison, fitness varied little among populations from the same region. The results suggest that the magnitude and geographical scale of local adaptation need to be considered in predictions of the effects of global change on the dynamics of arctic and alpine plant populations. © 2014 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2014 New Phytologist Trust.

Reconstructing eight decades of genetic variation in an isolated Danish population of the large blue butterfly Maculinea arion.

PubMed

Ugelvig, Line V; Nielsen, Per S; Boomsma, Jacobus J; Nash, David R

2011-07-11

Fragmentation of terrestrial ecosystems has had detrimental effects on metapopulations of habitat specialists. Maculinea butterflies have been particularly affected because of their specialized lifecycles, requiring both specific food-plants and host-ants. However, the interaction between dispersal, effective population size, and long-term genetic erosion of these endangered butterflies remains unknown. Using non-destructive sampling, we investigated the genetic diversity of the last extant population of M. arion in Denmark, which experienced critically low numbers in the 1980s. Using nine microsatellite markers, we show that the population is genetically impoverished compared to nearby populations in Sweden, but less so than monitoring programs suggested. Ten additional short repeat microsatellites were used to reconstruct changes in genetic diversity and population structure over the last 77 years from museum specimens. We also tested amplification efficiency in such historical samples as a function of repeat length and sample age. Low population numbers in the 1980s did not affect genetic diversity, but considerable turnover of alleles has characterized this population throughout the time-span of our analysis. Our results suggest that M. arion is less sensitive to genetic erosion via population bottlenecks than previously thought, and that managing clusters of high quality habitat may be key for long-term conservation.

Immune Response to Electromagnetic Fields through Cybernetic Modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Godina-Nava, J. J.; Segura, M. A. Rodriguez; Cadena, S. Reyes

We study the optimality of the humoral immune response through a mathematical model, which involves the effect of electromagnetic fields over the large lymphocytes proliferation. Are used the so called cybernetic variables in the context of the matching law of microeconomics or mathematical psychology, to measure the large lymphocytes population and to maximize the instantaneous antibody production rate in time during the immunologic response in order to most efficiently inactivate the antigen.

Immune Response to Electromagnetic Fields through Cybernetic Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Godina-Nava, J. J.; Segura, M. A. Rodríguez; Cadena, S. Reyes; Sierra, L. C. Gaitán

2008-08-01

We study the optimality of the humoral immune response through a mathematical model, which involves the effect of electromagnetic fields over the large lymphocytes proliferation. Are used the so called cybernetic variables in the context of the matching law of microeconomics or mathematical psychology, to measure the large lymphocytes population and to maximize the instantaneous antibody production rate in time during the immunologic response in order to most efficiently inactivate the antigen.

Subtype-independent near full-length HIV-1 genome sequencing and assembly to be used in large molecular epidemiological studies and clinical management.

PubMed

Grossmann, Sebastian; Nowak, Piotr; Neogi, Ujjwal

2015-01-01

HIV-1 near full-length genome (HIV-NFLG) sequencing from plasma is an attractive multidimensional tool to apply in large-scale population-based molecular epidemiological studies. It also enables genotypic resistance testing (GRT) for all drug target sites allowing effective intervention strategies for control and prevention in high-risk population groups. Thus, the main objective of this study was to develop a simplified subtype-independent, cost- and labour-efficient HIV-NFLG protocol that can be used in clinical management as well as in molecular epidemiological studies. Plasma samples (n=30) were obtained from HIV-1B (n=10), HIV-1C (n=10), CRF01_AE (n=5) and CRF01_AG (n=5) infected individuals with minimum viral load >1120 copies/ml. The amplification was performed with two large amplicons of 5.5 kb and 3.7 kb, sequenced with 17 primers to obtain HIV-NFLG. GRT was validated against ViroSeq™ HIV-1 Genotyping System. After excluding four plasma samples with low-quality RNA, a total of 26 samples were attempted. Among them, NFLG was obtained from 24 (92%) samples with the lowest viral load being 3000 copies/ml. High (>99%) concordance was observed between HIV-NFLG and ViroSeq™ when determining the drug resistance mutations (DRMs). The N384I connection mutation was additionally detected by NFLG in two samples. Our high efficiency subtype-independent HIV-NFLG is a simple and promising approach to be used in large-scale molecular epidemiological studies. It will facilitate the understanding of the HIV-1 pandemic population dynamics and outline effective intervention strategies. Furthermore, it can potentially be applicable in clinical management of drug resistance by evaluating DRMs against all available antiretrovirals in a single assay.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Muscatello, A.C.

The scientific literature contains several reports that show nutritional substances, such as vitamins, minerals, and phytochemicals (plant chemicals), provide substantial radioprotective effects in animal studies. Incorporating these substances to the human diet, already voluntarily practiced by a large segment of the population, in addition to providing other favorable health effects, may also provide a radioprotective effect. This potential radioprotective effect would be very useful in mitigating the effects of occupational radiation exposure to astronauts (especially future Mars explorers), airline crews, nuclear workers, both commercial and government, and populations exposed to nuclear accidents, e.g. Chernobyl. This paper reviews the existing evidencemore » of radioprotective effects by nutritional supplements and proposes that their efficacy be evaluated, first with animal studies, followed by human tests with astronauts and cosmonauts on long-term missions, such as to the Mir space station and the International Space Station (ISS).« less

Separating direct and indirect effects of global change: a population dynamic modeling approach using readily available field data.

PubMed

Farrer, Emily C; Ashton, Isabel W; Knape, Jonas; Suding, Katharine N

2014-04-01

Two sources of complexity make predicting plant community response to global change particularly challenging. First, realistic global change scenarios involve multiple drivers of environmental change that can interact with one another to produce non-additive effects. Second, in addition to these direct effects, global change drivers can indirectly affect plants by modifying species interactions. In order to tackle both of these challenges, we propose a novel population modeling approach, requiring only measurements of abundance and climate over time. To demonstrate the applicability of this approach, we model population dynamics of eight abundant plant species in a multifactorial global change experiment in alpine tundra where we manipulated nitrogen, precipitation, and temperature over 7 years. We test whether indirect and interactive effects are important to population dynamics and whether explicitly incorporating species interactions can change predictions when models are forecast under future climate change scenarios. For three of the eight species, population dynamics were best explained by direct effect models, for one species neither direct nor indirect effects were important, and for the other four species indirect effects mattered. Overall, global change had negative effects on species population growth, although species responded to different global change drivers, and single-factor effects were slightly more common than interactive direct effects. When the fitted population dynamic models were extrapolated under changing climatic conditions to the end of the century, forecasts of community dynamics and diversity loss were largely similar using direct effect models that do not explicitly incorporate species interactions or best-fit models; however, inclusion of species interactions was important in refining the predictions for two of the species. The modeling approach proposed here is a powerful way of analyzing readily available datasets which should be added to our toolbox to tease apart complex drivers of global change. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Quasi-Experimental Evaluation of the Effectiveness of a Large-Scale Readmission Reduction Program.

PubMed

Jenq, Grace Y; Doyle, Margaret M; Belton, Beverly M; Herrin, Jeph; Horwitz, Leora I

2016-05-01

Feasibility, effectiveness, and sustainability of large-scale readmission reduction efforts are uncertain. The Greater New Haven Coalition for Safe Transitions and Readmission Reductions was funded by the Center for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) to reduce readmissions among all discharged Medicare fee-for-service (FFS) patients. To evaluate whether overall Medicare FFS readmissions were reduced through an intervention applied to high-risk discharge patients. This quasi-experimental evaluation took place at an urban academic medical center. Target discharge patients were older than 64 years with Medicare FFS insurance, residing in nearby zip codes, and discharged alive to home or facility and not against medical advice or to hospice; control discharge patients were older than 54 years with the same zip codes and discharge disposition but without Medicare FFS insurance if older than 64 years. High-risk target discharge patients were selectively enrolled in the program. Personalized transitional care, including education, medication reconciliation, follow-up telephone calls, and linkage to community resources. We measured the 30-day unplanned same-hospital readmission rates in the baseline period (May 1, 2011, through April 30, 2012) and intervention period (October 1, 2012, through May 31, 2014). We enrolled 10 621 (58.3%) of 18 223 target discharge patients (73.9% of discharge patients screened as high risk) and included all target discharge patients in the analysis. The mean (SD) age of the target discharge patients was 79.7 (8.8) years. The adjusted readmission rate decreased from 21.5% to 19.5% in the target population and from 21.1% to 21.0% in the control population, a relative reduction of 9.3%. The number needed to treat to avoid 1 readmission was 50. In a difference-in-differences analysis using a logistic regression model, the odds of readmission in the target population decreased significantly more than that of the control population in the intervention period (odds ratio, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.83-0.99; P = .03). In a comparative interrupted time series analysis of the difference in monthly adjusted admission rates, the target population decreased an absolute -3.09 (95% CI, -6.47 to 0.29; P = .07) relative to the control population, a similar but nonsignificant effect. This large-scale readmission reduction program reduced readmissions by 9.3% among the full population targeted by the CMS despite being delivered only to high-risk patients. However, it did not achieve the goal reduction set by the CMS.

Population structure of Columbia spotted frogs (Rana luteiventris) is strongly affected by the landscape

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, W.C.; Blouin, M.S.; Corn, P.S.; Maxell, B.A.; Pilliod, D.S.; Amish, S.; Allendorf, F.W.

2005-01-01

Landscape features such as mountains, rivers, and ecological gradients may strongly affect patterns of dispersal and gene flow among populations and thereby shape population dynamics and evolutionary trajectories. The landscape may have a particularly strong effect on patterns of dispersal and gene flow in amphibians because amphibians are thought to have poor dispersal abilities. We examined genetic variation at six microsatellite loci in Columbia spotted frogs (Rana luteiventris) from 28 breeding ponds in western Montana and Idaho, USA, in order to investigate the effects of landscape structure on patterns of gene flow. We were particularly interested in addressing three questions: (i) do ridges act as barriers to gene flow? (ii) is gene flow restricted between low and high elevation ponds? (iii) does a pond equal a 'randomly mating population' (a deme)? We found that mountain ridges and elevational differences were associated with increased genetic differentiation among sites, suggesting that gene flow is restricted by ridges and elevation in this species. We also found that populations of Columbia spotted frogs generally include more than a single pond except for very isolated ponds. There was also evidence for surprisingly high levels of gene flow among low elevation sites separated by large distances. Moreover, genetic variation within populations was strongly negatively correlated with elevation, suggesting effective population sizes are much smaller at high elevation than at low elevation. Our results show that landscape features have a profound effect on patterns of genetic variation in Columbia spotted frogs.

Determining individual variation in growth and its implication for life-history and population processes using the empirical Bayes method.

PubMed

Vincenzi, Simone; Mangel, Marc; Crivelli, Alain J; Munch, Stephan; Skaug, Hans J

2014-09-01

The differences in demographic and life-history processes between organisms living in the same population have important consequences for ecological and evolutionary dynamics. Modern statistical and computational methods allow the investigation of individual and shared (among homogeneous groups) determinants of the observed variation in growth. We use an Empirical Bayes approach to estimate individual and shared variation in somatic growth using a von Bertalanffy growth model with random effects. To illustrate the power and generality of the method, we consider two populations of marble trout Salmo marmoratus living in Slovenian streams, where individually tagged fish have been sampled for more than 15 years. We use year-of-birth cohort, population density during the first year of life, and individual random effects as potential predictors of the von Bertalanffy growth function's parameters k (rate of growth) and L∞ (asymptotic size). Our results showed that size ranks were largely maintained throughout marble trout lifetime in both populations. According to the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), the best models showed different growth patterns for year-of-birth cohorts as well as the existence of substantial individual variation in growth trajectories after accounting for the cohort effect. For both populations, models including density during the first year of life showed that growth tended to decrease with increasing population density early in life. Model validation showed that predictions of individual growth trajectories using the random-effects model were more accurate than predictions based on mean size-at-age of fish.

[Health effects of living habits].

PubMed

Vuori, Ilkka

2015-01-01

Single healthy living habits such as non-smoking and regular physical activity decrease the risk of common non-communicable diseases, unsuccessful aging and premature death to a small to moderate degree. Their cumulative effects are, however, large. Only a small minority of people adhere well to all healthy living habits or even the healthiest ones. Consequently, the population attributable fractions of major public health problems due to unhealthy lifestyles are large. Substantial improvement of public health calls for policies and programs to influence the root causes of the lifestyles in the multiple environments and systems where they are developed, maintained, and changed.

DNA pooling strategies for categorical (ordinal) traits

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Despite reduced genotyping costs in recent years, obtaining genotypes for all individuals in a population may still not be feasible when sample size is large. DNA pooling provides a useful alternative to determining genotype effects. Clustering algorithms allow for grouping of individuals (observati...

Long-Distance Connection

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clift, Kate

2010-01-01

Transient populations, cultural diversity, language barriers, competing loyalties, and geographic separation are just some of the challenges international schools face in communicating and connecting with their alumni. And these issues are not going to get any easier as the sector grows. Communicating effectively with large, diverse groups of…

TRAFFIC EMISSION IMPACTS ON AIR QUALITY NEAR LARGE ROADWAYS

EPA Science Inventory

Recent epidemiological studies have examined associations between living near major roads and different health endpoints. They find that populations living, working or going to school near major roads may be at increased risk for a number of adverse health effects. When compare...

When evolution is the solution to pollution...

EPA Science Inventory

Rapid evolutionary adaptation is not expected to be sufficiently rapid to buffer the effects of human-mediated environmental changes for most species. Yet large persistent populations of small bodied fish residing in some of the most contaminated estuaries of the US have provided...

The association between landscape features and transportation corridors on movements and habitat-use patterns of wolverines.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2006-06-01

"Abstract: Wolverines are a rare carnivore that live at low densities and have large spatial : requirements; characteristics that leave them vulnerable to both direct and indirect effects of : highways. Maintaining connectivity between sub-population...

The effects of China’s universal two-child policy

PubMed Central

Zeng, Yi; Hesketh, Therese

2018-01-01

In October, 2015, China’s one-child policy was replaced by a universal two-child policy. The effects of the new policy are inevitably speculative, but predictions can be made based on recent trends. The population increase will be relatively small, peaking at 1·45 billion in 2029 (compared with a peak of 1·4 billion in 2023 if the one-child policy continued). The new policy will allow almost all Chinese people to have their preferred number of children. The benefits of the new policy include: a large reduction in abortions of unapproved pregnancies, virtual elimination of the problem of unregistered children, and a more normal sex ratio. All of these effects should improve health outcomes. Effects of the new policy on the shrinking workforce and rapid population ageing will not be evident for two decades. In the meantime, more sound policy actions are needed to meet the social, health, and care needs of the elderly population. PMID:27751400

Using population mixtures to optimize the utility of genomic databases: linkage disequilibrium and association study design in India.

PubMed

Pemberton, T J; Jakobsson, M; Conrad, D F; Coop, G; Wall, J D; Pritchard, J K; Patel, P I; Rosenberg, N A

2008-07-01

When performing association studies in populations that have not been the focus of large-scale investigations of haplotype variation, it is often helpful to rely on genomic databases in other populations for study design and analysis - such as in the selection of tag SNPs and in the imputation of missing genotypes. One way of improving the use of these databases is to rely on a mixture of database samples that is similar to the population of interest, rather than using the single most similar database sample. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the mixture approach in the application of African, European, and East Asian HapMap samples for tag SNP selection in populations from India, a genetically intermediate region underrepresented in genomic studies of haplotype variation.

The use of clinical trials in comparative effectiveness research on mental health.

PubMed

Blanco, Carlos; Rafful, Claudia; Olfson, Mark

2013-08-01

A large body of comparative effectiveness research (CER) focuses on the use of observational and quasi-experimental approaches. We sought to examine the use of clinical trials as a tool for CER, particularly in mental health. Examination of three ongoing randomized clinical trials in psychiatry addressing issues that would pose difficulties for nonexperimental CER methods. Existing statistical approaches to nonexperimental data appear insufficient to compensate for biases that may arise when the pattern of missing data cannot be properly modeled such as when there are no standards for treatment, when affected populations have limited access to treatment, or when there are high rates of treatment dropout. Clinical trials should retain an important role in CER, particularly in cases of high disorder prevalence, large expected effect sizes, difficult-to-reach populations, or when examining sequential treatments or stepped-care algorithms. Progress in CER on mental health will require careful consideration of appropriate selection between clinical trials and nonexperimental designs and on allocation of research resources to optimally inform key treatment decisions for each patient. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Demographic evidence of illegal harvesting of an endangered asian turtle.

PubMed

Sung, Yik-Hei; Karraker, Nancy E; Hau, Billy C H

2013-12-01

Harvesting pressure on Asian freshwater turtles is severe, and dramatic population declines of these turtles are being driven by unsustainable collection for food markets, pet trade, and traditional Chinese medicine. Populations of big-headed turtle (Platysternon megacephalum) have declined substantially across its distribution, particularly in China, because of overcollection. To understand the effects of chronic harvesting pressure on big-headed turtle populations, we examined the effects of illegal harvesting on the demography of populations in Hong Kong, where some populations still exist. We used mark-recapture methods to compare demographic characteristics between sites with harvesting histories and one site in a fully protected area. Sites with a history of illegal turtle harvesting were characterized by the absence of large adults and skewed ratios of juveniles to adults, which may have negative implications for the long-term viability of populations. These sites also had lower densities of adults and smaller adult body sizes than the protected site. Given that populations throughout most of the species' range are heavily harvested and individuals are increasingly difficult to find in mainland China, the illegal collection of turtles from populations in Hong Kong may increase over time. Long-term monitoring of populations is essential to track effects of illegal collection, and increased patrolling is needed to help control illegal harvesting of populations, particularly in national parks. Because few, if any, other completely protected populations remain in the region, our data on an unharvested population of big-headed turtles serve as an important reference for assessing the negative consequences of harvesting on populations of stream turtles. Evidencia Demográfica de la Captura Ilegal de una Tortuga Asiática en Peligro. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Ecological feedbacks can reduce population-level efficacy of wildlife fertility control

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ransom, Jason I.; Powers, Jenny G.; Hobbs, N. Thompson; Baker, Dan L.

2014-01-01

1. Anthropogenic stress on natural systems, particularly the fragmentation of landscapes and the extirpation of predators from food webs, has intensified the need to regulate abundance of wildlife populations with management. Controlling population growth using fertility control has been considered for almost four decades, but nearly all research has focused on understanding effects of fertility control agents on individual animals. Questions about the efficacy of fertility control as a way to control populations remain largely unanswered. 2. Collateral consequences of contraception can produce unexpected changes in birth rates, survival, immigration and emigration that may reduce the effectiveness of regulating animal abundance. The magnitude and frequency of such effects vary with species-specific social and reproductive systems, as well as connectivity of populations. Developing models that incorporate static demographic parameters from populations not controlled by contraception may bias predictions of fertility control efficacy. 3. Many population-level studies demonstrate that changes in survival and immigration induced by fertility control can compensate for the reduction in births caused by contraception. The most successful cases of regulating populations using fertility control come from applications of contraceptives to small, closed populations of gregarious and easily accessed species. 4. Fertility control can result in artificial selection pressures on the population and may lead to long-term unintentional genetic consequences. The magnitude of such selection is dependent on individual heritability and behavioural traits, as well as environmental variation. 5. Synthesis and applications. Understanding species' life-history strategies, biology, behavioural ecology and ecological context is critical to developing realistic expectations of regulating populations using fertility control. Before time, effort and funding are invested in wildlife contraception, managers may need to consider the possibility that many species and populations can compensate for reduction in fecundity, and this could minimize any reduction in population growth rate.

Ecological feedbacks can reduce population-level efficacy of wildlife fertility control

PubMed Central

Ransom, Jason I; Powers, Jenny G; Thompson Hobbs, N; Baker, Dan L

2014-01-01

Anthropogenic stress on natural systems, particularly the fragmentation of landscapes and the extirpation of predators from food webs, has intensified the need to regulate abundance of wildlife populations with management. Controlling population growth using fertility control has been considered for almost four decades, but nearly all research has focused on understanding effects of fertility control agents on individual animals. Questions about the efficacy of fertility control as a way to control populations remain largely unanswered. Collateral consequences of contraception can produce unexpected changes in birth rates, survival, immigration and emigration that may reduce the effectiveness of regulating animal abundance. The magnitude and frequency of such effects vary with species-specific social and reproductive systems, as well as connectivity of populations. Developing models that incorporate static demographic parameters from populations not controlled by contraception may bias predictions of fertility control efficacy. Many population-level studies demonstrate that changes in survival and immigration induced by fertility control can compensate for the reduction in births caused by contraception. The most successful cases of regulating populations using fertility control come from applications of contraceptives to small, closed populations of gregarious and easily accessed species. Fertility control can result in artificial selection pressures on the population and may lead to long-term unintentional genetic consequences. The magnitude of such selection is dependent on individual heritability and behavioural traits, as well as environmental variation. Synthesis and applications. Understanding species' life-history strategies, biology, behavioural ecology and ecological context is critical to developing realistic expectations of regulating populations using fertility control. Before time, effort and funding are invested in wildlife contraception, managers may need to consider the possibility that many species and populations can compensate for reduction in fecundity, and this could minimize any reduction in population growth rate. PMID:25558083

Extinction risk and eco-evolutionary dynamics in a variable environment with increasing frequency of extreme events.

PubMed

Vincenzi, Simone

2014-08-06

One of the most dramatic consequences of climate change will be the intensification and increased frequency of extreme events. I used numerical simulations to understand and predict the consequences of directional trend (i.e. mean state) and increased variability of a climate variable (e.g. temperature), increased probability of occurrence of point extreme events (e.g. floods), selection pressure and effect size of mutations on a quantitative trait determining individual fitness, as well as the their effects on the population and genetic dynamics of a population of moderate size. The interaction among climate trend, variability and probability of point extremes had a minor effect on risk of extinction, time to extinction and distribution of the trait after accounting for their independent effects. The survival chances of a population strongly and linearly decreased with increasing strength of selection, as well as with increasing climate trend and variability. Mutation amplitude had no effects on extinction risk, time to extinction or genetic adaptation to the new climate. Climate trend and strength of selection largely determined the shift of the mean phenotype in the population. The extinction or persistence of the populations in an 'extinction window' of 10 years was well predicted by a simple model including mean population size and mean genetic variance over a 10-year time frame preceding the 'extinction window', although genetic variance had a smaller role than population size in predicting contemporary risk of extinction. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

FREQ-Seq: A Rapid, Cost-Effective, Sequencing-Based Method to Determine Allele Frequencies Directly from Mixed Populations

PubMed Central

Delaney, Nigel F.; Marx, Christopher J.

2012-01-01

Understanding evolutionary dynamics within microbial populations requires the ability to accurately follow allele frequencies through time. Here we present a rapid, cost-effective method (FREQ-Seq) that leverages Illumina next-generation sequencing for localized, quantitative allele frequency detection. Analogous to RNA-Seq, FREQ-Seq relies upon counts from the >105 reads generated per locus per time-point to determine allele frequencies. Loci of interest are directly amplified from a mixed population via two rounds of PCR using inexpensive, user-designed oligonucleotides and a bar-coded bridging primer system that can be regenerated in-house. The resulting bar-coded PCR products contain the adapters needed for Illumina sequencing, eliminating further library preparation. We demonstrate the utility of FREQ-Seq by determining the order and dynamics of beneficial alleles that arose as a microbial population, founded with an engineered strain of Methylobacterium, evolved to grow on methanol. Quantifying allele frequencies with minimal bias down to 1% abundance allowed effective analysis of SNPs, small in-dels and insertions of transposable elements. Our data reveal large-scale clonal interference during the early stages of adaptation and illustrate the utility of FREQ-Seq as a cost-effective tool for tracking allele frequencies in populations. PMID:23118913

The influence of anthropogenic edge effects on primate populations and their habitat in a fragmented rainforest in Costa Rica.

PubMed

Bolt, Laura M; Schreier, Amy L; Voss, Kristofor A; Sheehan, Elizabeth A; Barrickman, Nancy L; Pryor, Nathaniel P; Barton, Matthew C

2018-05-01

When a forest is fragmented, this increases the amount of forest edge relative to the interior. Edge effects can lead to loss of animal and plant species and decreased plant biomass near forest edges. We examined the influence of an anthropogenic forest edge comprising cattle pasture, coconut plantations, and human settlement on the mantled howler (Alouatta palliata), white-faced capuchin (Cebus capucinus), Central American spider monkey (Ateles geoffroyi), and plant populations at La Suerte Biological Research Station (LSBRS), Costa Rica. We predicted that there would be lower monkey encounter rate, mean tree species richness, and diameter at breast height (DBH) in forest edge versus interior, and that monkeys would show species-specific responses to edge based on diet, body size, and canopy height preferences. Specifically, we predicted that howler monkeys would show positive or neutral edge effects due to their flexible folivorous diet, large body size, and preference for high canopy, capuchins would show positive edge effects due to their diverse diet, small body size, and preference for low to middle canopy, and spider monkeys would show negative edge effects due their reliance on ripe fruit, large body size, and preference for high upper canopy. We conducted population and vegetation surveys along edge and interior transects at LSBRS. Contrary to predictions, total monkey encounter rate did not vary between the forest edge and forest interior. Furthermore, all three species showed neutral edge effects with no significant differences in encounter rate between forest edge and interior. Interior transects had significantly higher mean tree species richness than edge transects, and interior trees had greater DBH than edge trees, although this difference was not significant. These results suggest that forest edges negatively impact plant populations at La Suerte but that the monkeys are able to withstand these differences in vegetation.