Multi-Satellite Measurements and Model Predictions of Mesospheric and Upper Stratospheric Influences from the Very Large July 14-16, 2000, Solar Proton Event

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jackman, Charles H.; McPeters, Richard D.; Russell, James M.; Bevilacqua, Richard; Labow, Gordon J.; Fleming, Eric L.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

A large solar flare with an associated coronal mass ejection occurred in mid-July and caused a very large solar proton event at the earth in the time period July 14-16, 2000. So far this is the largest solar storm of solar cycle 23. The solar proton fluxes were measured by instruments aboard the GOES-10 satellite and used in our proton energy deposition model to help quantify the energy input to the middle atmosphere during this large solar event. Using this computed energy deposition in the GSFC 2D atmospheric model resulted in a prediction of $>$ 20\\% increases in HO$-(x)$ (H, OH, HO$-(2)$) and $>$ 100\\% increases in NO$-(x)$ (N, NO, NO$-(2)$) constituents in the mesosphere and upper stratosphere at polar latitudes ($>$ 60 degrees geomagnetic). Both the HO$-(x)$ and NO$_fx)$ increases impacted ozone. Large atmospheric impacts have been measured with the NOAA 14 SBUV/2 instrument (0$_(3)$), the UARS HALOE instrument (NO, NO$-(2)$, 0$-(3)$), and the POAM III instrument (0$_{3}$, NO$-(2)$). Preliminary analysis indicates that measured (SBUV/2) and modelled 0$_{3}$ decreases from this solar event are generally in agreement in the Northern Hemisphere. Short-term ozone changes (during the event) indicate $\\sim$ 15% reduction at 2 hPa ($\\sim$ 45 km) up to $\\sim$ 40% reduction at 0.5 hPa ($\\sim$ 55 km). A longer-term ozone depletion of $\\sim$ 5% is indicated between 4 and 2 hPa ($\\sim$ 40-45 km). The middle atmospheric changes caused by this solar event were very large and occurred fairly quickly ($\\sim$ 1-2 days). Such a significant natural perturbation provides a good test of our understanding of the middle atmosphere. The measured and modelled impacts of this solar event will be compared and discussed in this paper.

Impact of a Single Unusually Large Rainfall Event on the Level of Risk Used for Infrastructure Design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dhakal, N.; Jain, S.

2013-12-01

Rare and unusually large events (such as hurricanes and floods) can create unusual and interesting trends in statistics. Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution is usually used to statistically describe extreme rainfall events. A number of the recent studies have shown that the frequency of extreme rainfall events has increased over the last century and as a result, there has been change in parameters of GEV distribution with the time (non-stationary). But what impact does a single unusually large rainfall event (e.g., hurricane Irene) have on the GEV parameters and consequently on the level of risks or the return periods used in designing the civil infrastructures? In other words, if such a large event occurs today, how will it influence the level of risks (estimated based on past rainfall records) for the civil infrastructures? To answer these questions, we performed sensitivity analysis of the distribution parameters of GEV as well as the return periods to unusually large outlier events. The long-term precipitation records over the period of 1981-2010 from 12 USHCN stations across the state of Maine were used for analysis. For most of the stations, addition of each outlier event caused an increase in the shape parameter with a huge decrease on the corresponding return period. This is a key consideration for time-varying engineering design. These isolated extreme weather events should simultaneously be considered with traditional statistical methodology related to extreme events while designing civil infrastructures (such as dams, bridges, and culverts). Such analysis is also useful in understanding the statistical uncertainty of projecting extreme events into future.

The Impacts of Atmospheric Rivers on California's Extreme Precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asgari Lamjiri, M.; Dettinger, M. D.; Ralph, M.

2017-12-01

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are long, narrow corridors of enhanced water vapor transport that are typically associated with extratropical cyclones. ARs can be beneficial and replenish water resources, be hazardous and cause damaging floods, or have a combination of hazardous and beneficial impacts. Thus, understanding hydrologic impacts of ARs can help to improve water reservoir management and enhance flood risk mitigation, especially in California where there is extremely large year-to-year variability in annual precipitation accumulations. At the continental scale, gridded hourly precipitation observations are used in this study to identify unique characteristics of precipitation events impacting the US west coast compared to other regions in the US; precipitation events are defined here as continuous periods of precipitation with at least 5 mm of accumulated precipitation. It is shown that on average, the US west coast receives the largest precipitation totals across the US; these extreme precipitation events are largely associated with the most persistent ARs. Within California, hourly precipitation observations from 200 sites are being analyzed to better understand distinct categories of ARs that dictate extreme precipitation in different regions of California. It is found that, on average, the north coast, northern Sierra, and the Transverse Ranges experience the largest precipitation events; north coast and northern Sierra precipitation events tend to be longer, whereas the Transverse Ranges generally experience higher maximum and event-averaged intensities. ARs contribute significantly to extreme precipitation events in all regions of California, particularly the north coast, northern Sierra, and the Transverse Ranges. ARs associated with extreme precipitation events across California are significantly more persistent and have higher integrated vapor transport intensities than those associated with non-extreme events. Composites of characteristics of ARs which yield extreme precipitation events in different regions of California are studied to categorize the most impactful ARs in each region.

Ensemble-based diagnosis of the large-scale processes associated with multiple high-impact weather events over North America during late October 2007

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, B. J.; Bosart, L. F.; Keyser, D.

2013-12-01

During late October 2007, the interaction between a deep polar trough and Tropical Cyclone (TC) Kajiki off the eastern Asian coast perturbed the North Pacific jet stream and resulted in the development of a high-amplitude Rossby wave train extending into North America, contributing to three concurrent high-impact weather events in North America: wildfires in southern California associated with strong Santa Ana winds, a cold surge into eastern Mexico, and widespread heavy rainfall (~150 mm) in the south-central United States. Observational analysis indicates that these high-impact weather events were all dynamically linked with the development of a major high-latitude ridge over the eastern North Pacific and western North America and a deep trough over central North America. In this study, global operational ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) obtained from The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) archive are used to characterize the medium-range predictability of the large-scale flow pattern associated with the three events and to diagnose the large-scale atmospheric processes favorable, or unfavorable, for the occurrence of the three events. Examination of the ECMWF forecasts leading up to the time period of the three high-impact weather events (~23-25 October 2007) indicates that ensemble spread (i.e., uncertainty) in the 500-hPa geopotential height field develops in connection with downstream baroclinic development (DBD) across the North Pacific, associated with the interaction between TC Kajiki and the polar trough along the eastern Asian coast, and subsequently moves downstream into North America, yielding considerable uncertainty with respect to the structure, amplitude, and position of the ridge-trough pattern over North America. Ensemble sensitivity analysis conducted for key sensible weather parameters corresponding to the three high-impact weather events, including relative humidity, temperature, and precipitation, demonstrates quantitatively that all three high-impact weather events are closely linked with the development of the ridge-trough pattern over North America. Moreover, results of this analysis indicate that the development of the ridge-trough pattern is modulated by DBD and cyclogenesis upstream over the central and eastern North Pacific. Specifically, ensemble members exhibiting less intense cyclogenesis and a more poleward cyclone track over the central and eastern North Pacific feature the development of a poleward-displaced ridge over the eastern North Pacific and western North America and a cut-off low over the Intermountain West, an unfavorable scenario for the occurrence the three high-impact weather events. Conversely, ensemble members exhibiting more intense cyclogenesis and a less poleward cyclone track feature persistent ridging along the western coast of North America and trough development over central North America, establishing a favorable flow pattern for the three high-impact weather events. Results demonstrate that relatively small initial differences in the large-scale flow pattern over the North Pacific among ensemble members can result in large uncertainty in the forecast downstream flow response over North America.

Computer modeling of large asteroid impacts into continental and oceanic sites: Atmospheric, cratering, and ejecta dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roddy, D. J.; Schuster, S. H.; Rosenblatt, M.; Grant, L. B.; Hassig, P. J.; Kreyenhagen, K. N.

1988-01-01

Numerous impact cratering events have occurred on the Earth during the last several billion years that have seriously affected our planet and its atmosphere. The largest cratering events, which were caused by asteroids and comets with kinetic energies equivalent to tens of millions of megatons of TNT, have distributed substantial quantities of terrestrial and extraterrestrial material over much or all of the Earth. In order to study a large-scale impact event in detail, computer simulations were completed that model the passage of a 10 km-diameter asteroid through the Earth's atmosphere and the subsequent cratering and ejecta dynamics associated with impact of the asteroid into two different targets, i.e., an oceanic site and a continental site. The calcuations were designed to broadly represent giant impact events that have occurred on the Earth since its formation and specifically represent an impact cratering event proposed to have occurred at the end of Cretaceous time. Calculation of the passage of the asteroid through a U.S. Standard Atmosphere showed development of a strong bow shock that expanded radially outward. Behind the shock front was a region of highly shock compressed and intensely heated air. Behind the asteroid, rapid expansion of this shocked air created a large region of very low density that also expanded away from the impact area. Calculations of the cratering events in both the continental and oceanic targets were carried to 120 s. Despite geologic differences, impacts in both targets developed comparable dynamic flow fields, and by approx. 29 s similar-sized transient craters approx. 39 km deep and approx. 62 km across had formed. For all practical purposes, the atmosphere was nearly completely removed from the impact area for tens of seconds, i.e., air pressures were less than fractions of a bar out to ranges of over 50 km. Consequently, much of the asteroid and target materials were ejected upward into a near vacuum. Effects of secondary volcanism and return of the ocean over hot oceanic crater floor could also be expected to add substantial solid and vaporized material to the atmosphere, but these conditions were not studied.

The Seasonal Predictability of Extreme Wind Events in the Southwest United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seastrand, Simona Renee

Extreme wind events are a common phenomenon in the Southwest United States. Entities such as the United States Air Force (USAF) find the Southwest appealing for many reasons, primarily for the an expansive, unpopulated, and electronically unpolluted space for large-scale training and testing. However, wind events can cause hazards for the USAF including: surface wind gusts can impact the take-off and landing of all aircraft, can tip the airframes of large wing-surface aircraft during the performance of maneuvers close to the ground, and can even impact weapons systems. This dissertation is comprised of three sections intended to further our knowledge and understanding of wind events in the Southwest. The first section builds a climatology of wind events for seven locations in the Southwest during the twelve 3-month seasons of the year. The first section further examines the wind events in relation to terrain and the large-scale flow of the atmosphere. The second section builds upon the first by taking the wind events and generating mid-level composites for each of the twelve 3-month seasons. In the third section, teleconnections identified as consistent with the large-scale circulation in the second paper were used as predictor variables to build a Poisson regression model for each of the twelve 3-month seasons. The purpose of this research is to increase our understanding of the climatology of extreme wind events, increase our understanding of how the large-scale circulation influences extreme wind events, and create a model to enhance predictability of extreme wind events in the Southwest. Knowledge from this paper will help protect personnel and property associated with not only the USAF, but all those in the Southwest.

A comparison of large 18th-century floods on Danube: Vienna - Bratislava - Budapest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiss, Andrea; Parajka, Juraj

2013-04-01

The documentation of historic floods can help in better understanding of factors that might cause and contribute to large and extreme flood events. In particular, the analysis of historic floods provides information about flood seasonality, its changes and anthropogenic impacts on river flood regime which in some cases strongly influenced flood behaviour. The main objective of the present contribution is to document large and medium size flood events on Danube in Vienna, Bratislava and Budapest in the 18th century. In the present study, based on contemporary documentary evidence, for each of the three towns a five-scaled flood index series is developed to describe the magnitude and intensity of flood events. According to this classification, the 100-year flood event was characterised by the index value 5, while great destructive floods - depending on their extension, destructivity and further impacts - received the values 4 and 3, respectively. Less significant but still harmful flood events were classified as No. 2, and floods without further specification remained in the lowest category (No. 1). Beside classification issues, seasonality and flood frequency differences between the three towns are as well discussed. The results indicate that a greater number of flood events took place in the last decades of the century, but only a few flood events of the same magnitude are documented simultaneously in all three towns. And whereas in 1775 no winter flood event was reported in Vienna, an important ice jam flood was documented in Bratislava, and a catastrophic ice jam flood event, greatest of the century, occurred in Budapest. In 1787 autumn the greatest flood event of the century occurred in Vienna, while hardly any flood waves were observed at Budapest. While in Vienna, summer (and partly autumn) floods had great importance, in Budapest a large number of ice jam floods were documented. In some cases the differences are likely caused by different hydrometeorological and morphological conditions, but the importance of human impact (e.g. different types and levels of flood protection in the towns, large-scale changes of land use in the catchment area) have to be as well emphasised.

Generating extreme weather event sets from very large ensembles of regional climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massey, Neil; Guillod, Benoit; Otto, Friederike; Allen, Myles; Jones, Richard; Hall, Jim

2015-04-01

Generating extreme weather event sets from very large ensembles of regional climate models Neil Massey, Benoit P. Guillod, Friederike E. L. Otto, Myles R. Allen, Richard Jones, Jim W. Hall Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK Extreme events can have large impacts on societies and are therefore being increasingly studied. In particular, climate change is expected to impact the frequency and intensity of these events. However, a major limitation when investigating extreme weather events is that, by definition, only few events are present in observations. A way to overcome this issue it to use large ensembles of model simulations. Using the volunteer distributed computing (VDC) infrastructure of weather@home [1], we run a very large number (10'000s) of RCM simulations over the European domain at a resolution of 25km, with an improved land-surface scheme, nested within a free-running GCM. Using VDC allows many thousands of climate model runs to be computed. Using observations for the GCM boundary forcings we can run historical "hindcast" simulations over the past 100 to 150 years. This allows us, due to the chaotic variability of the atmosphere, to ascertain how likely an extreme event was, given the boundary forcings, and to derive synthetic event sets. The events in these sets did not actually occur in the observed record but could have occurred given the boundary forcings, with an associated probability. The event sets contain time-series of fields of meteorological variables that allow impact modellers to assess the loss the event would incur. Projections of events into the future are achieved by modelling projections of the sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-ice boundary forcings, by combining the variability of the SST in the observed record with a range of warming signals derived from the varying responses of SSTs in the CMIP5 ensemble to elevated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in three RCP scenarios. Simulating the future with a range of SST responses, as well as a range of RCP scenarios, allows us to assess the uncertainty in the response to elevated GHG emissions that occurs in the CMIP5 ensemble. Numerous extreme weather events can be studied. Firstly, we analyse droughts in Europe with a focus on the UK in the context of the project MaRIUS (Managing the Risks, Impacts and Uncertainties of droughts and water Scarcity). We analyse the characteristics of the simulated droughts, the underlying physical mechanisms, and assess droughts observed in the recent past. Secondly, we analyse windstorms by applying an objective storm-identification and tracking algorithm to the ensemble output, isolating those storms that cause high loss and building a probabilistic storm catalogue, which can be used by impact modellers, insurance loss modellers, etc. Finally, we combine the model output with a heat-stress index to determine the detrimental effect on health of heat waves in Europe. [1] Massey, N. et al., 2014, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc.

Impact phenomena as factors in the evolution of the Earth

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grieve, R. A. F.; Parmentier, E. M.

1984-01-01

It is estimated that 30 to 200 large impact basins could have been formed on the early Earth. These large impacts may have resulted in extensive volcanism and enhanced endogenic geologic activity over large areas. Initial modelling of the thermal and subsidence history of large terrestrial basins indicates that they created geologic and thermal anomalies which lasted for geologically significant times. The role of large-scale impact in the biological evolution of the Earth has been highlighted by the discovery of siderophile anomalies at the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary and associated with North American microtektites. Although in neither case has an associated crater been identified, the observations are consistent with the deposition of projectile-contaminated high-speed ejecta from major impact events. Consideration of impact processes reveals a number of mechanisms by which large-scale impact may induce extinctions.

Distinct meteoroid families identified on the lunar seismograms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oberst, Jurgen; Nakamura, Yosio

1987-01-01

The meteoroid impact-seismic activity data recorded by the Apollo lunar seismic network is examined. The study investigates the difference in temporal distribution between large and small impacts, clustering of impacts in a two-dimensional space of the time of the year and the time of the month, and the relationship of these observations with terrestrial observations. Several distinct families of meteoroids impacting the moon are identified. Most meteoroids producing small impact-seismic events, including ones associated with cometary showers, appear to approach from retrograde heliocentric orbits. In contrast, most meteoroids associated with large impact-seismic events appear to approach from prograde orbits; the observation is consistent with a hypothesis that many of them represent stony asteroidal material. It is suggested that the previously reported discrepancy between lunar and terrestrial meteoroid-flux estimates may be due to the differences in lunar and terrestrial detection efficiency among various families of meteoroids.

Application of the inner solar system cratering record to the Earth

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barlow, Nadine G.

1990-01-01

The cratering records on the Moon, Mercury, and Mars are studied to provide constraints on: (1) terrestrial conditions prior to about 3.8 Ga, (2) why biology was not extensively established prior to 3.5 Ga, (3) whether impact-induced volcanism can explain some feature of the Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary event, and (4) how common large single-impact events are in the inner solar system. Earth underwent a period of high impact rates and large basin-forming events early in its history, based on the cratering record retained in the Lunar, Mercurian, and Martian highlands. The widespread occurrence of life around 3.5 Ga is linked to the cessation of high impact rates. Impact of a 10-km-diam object into terrestrial oceans could excavate through crustal material and into mantle reservoirs, creating extended basaltic volcanic activity. Scaling laws, coupled with the record retained on Lunar and Martian plains, indicate that between one and seven craters of 90 km diam or greater could have formed on Earth in the past 65 million years.

Chaos in Practice: Techniques for Career Counsellors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pryor, Robert G. L.; Bright, Jim

2005-01-01

The chaos theory of careers emphasises continual change, the centrality and importance of chance events, the potential of minor events to have disproportionately large impacts on subsequent events, and the capacity for dramatic phase shifts in career behaviour. This approach challenges traditional approaches to career counselling, assumptions…

Validation of the Impact of Event Scale for Psychological Sequelae of Combat.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schwarzwald, Joseph; And Others

1987-01-01

Attempted to validate the Impact of Event Scale (IES) with a large sample of males who had been exposed to combat trauma. The IES was shown to be sensitive to differences between and within the three subject groups (combat stress reaction group, combat control group, noncombat control group). Four basic patterns of intrusion and avoidance were…

Impact Induced Climate Change on Venus: The Role of Large Comets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grinspoon, D. H.; Bullock, M. A.

2000-10-01

The surface temperature of Venus is a sensitive function of the abundances of greenhouse gases and also of cloud structure. In previous work we have studied the climate impact of past and continued outgassing of greenhouse and cloud-forming gases (1) and tectonic signatures that may have resulted from volcanically induced climate change (2). These studies showed that in outgassing events where large amounts of both H2O and SO2 are released, the increased albedo that arises from thickening of the clouds can, to some extent, ameliorate the greenhouse warming expected from increased abundances of these IR absorbing gases. The largest warming typically arises several hundred million years after an outgassing event when most of the excess SO2 has been removed by reaction with surface minerals, but much of the atmospheric H2O remains (because it is removed by exospheric escape on longer time scales). This combination - enhanced H2O abundance with SO2 returned to 'normal' - leads to maximum warming because the cloud thickness, and thus the albedo, is limited by the availability of SO2, whereas IR absorption in CO2 windows by enhanced H2O can cause warming on the order of 100 K. It seems likely that large comet impacts should also produce such a situation. The atmosphere of Venus currently contains 7 x 1018 grams of water, about as much as in a 25 km diameter comet. Comets may have been an important contributor to the current water inventory on Venus. Much of this may have been supplied by a few large comet impacts in the last several hundred million years (3). We will report on new runs of our Venus Evolutionary Climate Model which simulate the volatile input from large comet impacts and investigate the climate effects of these events. Calculation will be done with cometary delivery alone, and in conjunction with various outgassing scenarios. This allows us to examine how the vulnerability of the Venusian climate system to impact induced climate change is affected by the relative timing of large magmatic and impact events. (1) Bullock, M.A., and D.H. Grinspoon, J. Geophys. Res. 101, 7521-7529, 1996. (2) Solomon, S.C., M. A. Bullock, and D. H. Grinspoon, Science, 286: 87-90, 1999. (3) Grinspoon, D.H. and J.S. Lewis, Icarus, 74, 21-35, 1988.

Best Practices in the Evaluation of Large-scale STEM-focused Events: A Review of Recent Literature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shebby, S.; Cobb, W. H.; Buxner, S.; Shipp, S. S.

2015-12-01

Each year, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) sponsors a variety of educational events to share information with educators, students, and the general public. Intended outcomes of these events include increased interest in and awareness of the mission and goals of NASA. Events range in size from relatively small family science nights at a local school to large-scale mission and celestial event celebrations involving thousands of members of the general public. To support community members in designing event evaluations, the Science Mission Directorate (SMD) Planetary Science Forum sponsored the creation of a Best Practices Guide. The guide was generated by reviewing published large-scale event evaluation reports; however, the best practices described within are pertinent for all event organizers and evaluators regardless of event size. Each source included in the guide identified numerous challenges to conducting their event evaluation. These included difficulty in identifying extant instruments or items, collecting representative data, and disaggregating data to inform different evaluation questions. Overall, the guide demonstrates that evaluations of the large-scale events are generally done at a very basic level, with the types of data collected limited to observable demographic information and participant reactions collected via online survey. In addition to these findings, this presentation will describe evaluation best practices that will help practitioners move beyond these basic indicators and examine how to make the evaluation process an integral—and valuable—element of event planning, ultimately informing event outcomes and impacts. It will provide detailed information on five recommendations presented in the guide: 1) consider evaluation methodology, including data analysis, in advance; 2) design data collection instruments well in advance of the event; 3) collect data at different times and from multiple sources; 4) use technology to make the job easier; and 5) be aware of how challenging it is to measure impact.

Los Alamos National Laboratory Economic Analysis Capability Overview

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boero, Riccardo; Edwards, Brian Keith; Pasqualini, Donatella

Los Alamos National Laboratory has developed two types of models to compute the economic impact of infrastructure disruptions. FastEcon is a fast running model that estimates first-­order economic impacts of large scale events such as hurricanes and floods and can be used to identify the amount of economic activity that occurs in a specific area. LANL’s Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model estimates more comprehensive static and dynamic economic impacts of a broader array of events and captures the interactions between sectors and industries when estimating economic impacts.

The impact of user- and system-initiated personalization on the user experience at large sports events.

PubMed

Sun, Xu; May, Andrew; Wang, Qingfeng

2016-05-01

This article describes an experimental study investigating the impact on user experience of two approaches of personalization of content provided on a mobile device, for spectators at large sports events. A lab-based experiment showed that a system-driven approach to personalization was generally preferable, but that there were advantages to retaining some user control over the process. Usability implications for a hybrid approach, and design implications are discussed, with general support for countermeasures designed to overcome recognised limitations of adaptive systems. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

Events Management Education through CD-ROM Simulation at Victoria University of Technology.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Perry, Marcia; And Others

There has been a rapid growth in the events industry in Victoria and Australia over the past five years with an increase in large scale events--resulting in substantive economic impact. The growth in events in Australia is projected to continue to beyond 2001. The Department of Management at Victoria University of Technology (VU) received a…

Hydro-meteorological drought event sets in the UK based on a large ensemble of global-regional climate simulations: climatology, drivers and changes in the future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guillod, B. P.; Massey, N.; Otto, F. E. L.; Allen, M. R.; Jones, R.; Hall, J. W.

2016-12-01

Extreme events being rare by definition, accurately quantifying the probabilities associated with a given event is difficult. This is particularly true for droughts, for which only few events are available in the observational record owing to their long-lasting characteristics. The MaRIUS project (Managing the Risks, Impacts and Uncertainties of drought and water Scarcity) aims at quantifying present and future risks associated with droughts in the UK. To do so, a large number of modelled weather time series for "synthetic" drought events are being fed into hydrological and impact models to assess their impacts on various sectors (social sciences, economy, industry, agriculture, and ecosystems). Here, we present and analyse the hydro-meteorological drought event sets that have been produced with a new version of weather@home [1] for MaRIUS. Using idle processor time on volunteers' computers around the world, we have run a very large number (10'000s) of Global Climate Model simulations, downscaled at 25km over Europe by a nested Regional Climate Model. Simulations include the past 100 years as well as two future time slices (2030s and 2080s), and provide a large number of sequences of spatio-temporally coherent weather, which are consistent with the boundary forcing such as the ocean, greenhouse gases and solar forcing. Beside presenting the methodology and validation of the event sets, we provide insights into drought risk in the UK and the drivers of drought. In particular, we examine their sensitivity to sea surface temperature and sea ice patterns, both in the recent past and for future projections. How drought risk in the UK can be expected to change in the future will also be discussed. Finally, we assess the applicability of this methodology to other regions. Reference: [1] Massey, N. et al., 2014, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc.

The composition and plasma signature of a large dust impact on the Giotto spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goldstein, R.; Goldstein, B. E.; Balsiger, H.; Coates, A. J.; Curdt, W.

1991-01-01

At about 14,800 km from the Comet Halley nucleus, on the inbound leg, at least six of the sensors onboard the Giotto spacecraft observed an unusual, brief (about 30 to 500 ms) event: the ion-mass spectrometer data show a brief flow of energetic (up to several hundred electron volts) plasma consisting of protons, water group, and heavier ions. The Johnstone plasma analyzer data show a short burst of plasma, while the dust impact detector system data show an impact event in four of its detectors. The magnetometer signature of the event shows two brief dips in the field. The sudden change in the spacecraft attitude and spin rate observed by the camera at that same time has been interpreted as the result of a large (5 mg or more) dust-particle impact on the front bumper shield of the spacecraft. In addition, at about the same time the spacecraft star-tracker suffered damage. The report combines direct measurements of the composition and dynamics of a dust-impact plasma cloud, the dust particle mass, and the location of the impact on the spacecraft. Analysis of the data indicate that the impacting particle was water or ice-bearing, possibly loosely compared, and was composed of one or more of: carbon, nitrogen, and silicon.

Impact as a general cause of extinction: A feasibility test

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Raup, David M.

1988-01-01

Large body impact has been implicated as the possible cause of several extinction events. This is entirely plausible if one accepts two propositions: (1) that impacts of large comets and asteroids produce environmental effects severe enough to cause significant species extinctions and (2) that the estimates of comet and asteroid flux for the Phanerozoic are approximately correct. A resonable next step is to investigate the possibility that impact could be a significant factor in the broader Phanerozoic extinction record, not limited merely to a few events of mass extinction. Monte Carlo simulation experiments based on existing flux estimates and reasonable predictions of the relationship between bolide diameter and extinction are discussed. The simulation results raise the serious possibility that large body impact may be a more pervasive factor in extinction than has been assumed heretofore. At the very least, the experiments show that the comet and asteroid flux estimates combined with a reasonable kill curve produces a reasonable extinction record, complete with occasional mass extinctions and the irregular, lower intensity extinctions commonly called background extinction.

Concurrent Schedules of Positive and Negative Reinforcement: Differential-Impact and Differential-Outcomes Hypotheses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Magoon, Michael A.; Critchfield, Thomas S.

2008-01-01

Considerable evidence from outside of operant psychology suggests that aversive events exert greater influence over behavior than equal-sized positive-reinforcement events. Operant theory is largely moot on this point, and most operant research is uninformative because of a scaling problem that prevents aversive events and those based on positive…

Projecting future impacts of hurricanes on the carbon balance of eastern U.S. forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fisk, J. P.; Hurtt, G. C.; Chambers, J. Q.; Zeng, H.; Dolan, K.; Flanagan, S.; Rourke, O.; Negron Juarez, R. I.

2011-12-01

In U.S. Atlantic coastal areas, hurricanes are a principal agent of catastrophic wind damage, with dramatic impacts on the structure and functioning of forests. Substantial recent progress has been made to estimate the biomass loss and resulting carbon emissions caused by hurricanes impacting the U.S. Additionally, efforts to evaluate the net effects of hurricanes on the regional carbon balance have demonstrated the importance of viewing large disturbance events in the broader context of recovery from a mosaic of past events. Viewed over sufficiently long time scales and large spatial scales, regrowth from previous storms may largely offset new emissions; however, changes in number, strength or spatial distribution of extreme disturbance events will result in changes to the equilibrium state of the ecosystem and have the potential to result in a lasting carbon source or sink. Many recent studies have linked climate change to changes in the frequency and intensity of hurricanes. In this study, we use a mechanistic ecosystem model, the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model, driven by scenarios of future hurricane activity based on historic activity and future climate projections, to evaluate how changes in hurricane frequency, intensity and spatial distribution could affect regional carbon storage and flux over the coming century. We find a non-linear response where increased storm activity reduces standing biomass stocks reducing the impacts of future events. This effect is highly dependent on the spatial pattern and repeat interval of future hurricane activity. Developing this kind of predictive modeling capability that tracks disturbance events and recovery is key to our understanding and ability to predict the carbon balance of forests.

Best Practices in Pulic Outreach Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cobb, Whitney; Buxner, Sanlyn; Shipp, Stephanie

2015-11-01

IntroductionEach year the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) sponsors public outreach events designed to increase student, educator, and general public engagement in its missions and goals. NASA SMD Education’s review of large-scale events, “Best Practices in Outreach Events,” highlighted planning and implementation best practices, which were used by the Dawn mission to strategize and implement its Ceres arrival celebration event, i C Ceres.BackgroundThe literature review focused on best identifying practices rising from evaluations of large-scale public outreach events. The following criteria guided the study:* Public, science-related events open to adults and children* Events that occurred during the last 5 years* Evaluations that included information on data collected from visitors and/or volunteers* Evaluations that specified the type of data collected, methodology, and associated resultsBest Practices: Planning and ImplementationThe literature review revealed key considerations for planning implement large-scale events. Best practices included can be pertinent for all event organizers and evaluators regardless of event size. A summary of related best practices is presented below.1) Advertise the event2) Use and advertise access to scientists* Attendees who reported an interaction with a science professional were 15% to 19% more likely to report positive learning impacts, (SFA, 2012, p. 24).3) Recruit scientists using findings such as:* High percentages of scientists (85% to 96%) from most events were interested in participating again (SFA, 2012).4) Ensure that the event is group and, particularly, child friendly5) Target specific event outcomesBest Practices Informing Real-world Planning, Implementation and EvaluationDawn mission’s collaborative design of a series of events, i C Ceres, including in-person, interactive events geared to families and live presentations, will be shared, with focus on the family event, and the evidence that scientist participation was a particular driver for the event’s impact and success.Science Festival Alliance (SFA). (2012). Get inspired: A first look at science festivals. Retrieved from http://sciencefestivals.org/news_item/get-inspired

Impact of weather events on Arctic sea ice albedo evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arntsen, A. E.; Perovich, D. K.; Polashenski, C.; Stwertka, C.

2015-12-01

Arctic sea ice undergoes a seasonal evolution from cold snow-covered ice to melting snow to bare ice with melt ponds. Associated with this physical evolution is a decrease in the albedo of the ice cover. While the change in albedo is often considered as a steady seasonal decrease, weather events during melt, such as rain or snow, can impact the albedo evolution. Measurements on first year ice in the Chukchi Sea showed a decrease in visible albedo to 0.77 during the onset of melt. New snow from 4 - 6 June halted melting and increased the visible albedo to 0.87. It took 12 days for the albedo to decrease to levels prior to the snowfall. Incident solar radiation is large in June and thus a change in albedo has a large impact on the surface heat budget. The snowfall increased the albedo by 0.1 and reduced the absorbed sunlight from 5 June to 17 June by approximately 32 MJ m-2. The total impact of the snowfall will be even greater, since the delay in albedo reduction will be propagated throughout the entire summer. A rain event would have the opposite impact, increasing solar heat input and accelerating melting. Snow or rain in May or June can impact the summer melt cycle of Arctic sea ice.

Spider webs designed for rare but life-saving catches

PubMed Central

Venner, Samuel; Casas, Jérôme

2005-01-01

The impact of rare but positive events on the design of organisms has been largely ignored, probably due to the paucity of recordings of such events and to the difficulty of estimating their impact on lifetime reproductive success. In this respect, we investigated the size of spider webs in relation to rare but large prey catches. First, we collected field data on a short time-scale using the common orb-weaving spider Zygiella x-notata to determine the distribution of the size of prey caught and to quantify the relationship between web size and daily capture success. Second, we explored, with an energetic model, the consequences of an increase in web size on spider fitness. Our results showed that (i) the great majority of prey caught are quite small (body length less than 2 mm) while large prey (length greater than 10 mm) are rare, (ii) spiders cannot survive or produce eggs without catching these large but rare prey and (iii) increasing web size increases the daily number of prey caught and thus long-term survival and fecundity. Spider webs seem, therefore, designed for making the best of the rare but crucial event of catching large prey. PMID:16048774

Population-wide mortality in multiple forest types in western North America: onset, extent, and severity of impacts as indicators of climatic influence

Treesearch

J. D. Shaw; J. N. Long; M. T. Thompson; R. J. DeRose

2010-01-01

A complex of drought, insects, and disease is causing widespread mortality in multiple forest types across western North America. These forest types range from dry Pinus-Juniperus woodlands to moist, montane Picea-Abies forests. Although large-scale mortality events are known from the past and considered part of natural cycles, recent events have largely been...

On the feasibility of using satellite gravity observations for detecting large-scale solid mass transfer events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peidou, Athina C.; Fotopoulos, Georgia; Pagiatakis, Spiros

2017-10-01

The main focus of this paper is to assess the feasibility of utilizing dedicated satellite gravity missions in order to detect large-scale solid mass transfer events (e.g. landslides). Specifically, a sensitivity analysis of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) gravity field solutions in conjunction with simulated case studies is employed to predict gravity changes due to past subaerial and submarine mass transfer events, namely the Agulhas slump in southeastern Africa and the Heart Mountain Landslide in northwestern Wyoming. The detectability of these events is evaluated by taking into account the expected noise level in the GRACE gravity field solutions and simulating their impact on the gravity field through forward modelling of the mass transfer. The spectral content of the estimated gravity changes induced by a simulated large-scale landslide event is estimated for the known spatial resolution of the GRACE observations using wavelet multiresolution analysis. The results indicate that both the Agulhas slump and the Heart Mountain Landslide could have been detected by GRACE, resulting in {\\vert }0.4{\\vert } and {\\vert }0.18{\\vert } mGal change on GRACE solutions, respectively. The suggested methodology is further extended to the case studies of the submarine landslide in Tohoku, Japan, and the Grand Banks landslide in Newfoundland, Canada. The detectability of these events using GRACE solutions is assessed through their impact on the gravity field.

Impacts of Extreme Space Weather Events on Power Grid Infrastructure: Physics-Based Modelling of Geomagnetically-Induced Currents (GICs) During Carrington-Class Geomagnetic Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henderson, M. G.; Bent, R.; Chen, Y.; Delzanno, G. L.; Jeffery, C. A.; Jordanova, V. K.; Morley, S.; Rivera, M. K.; Toth, G.; Welling, D. T.; Woodroffe, J. R.; Engel, M.

2017-12-01

Large geomagnetic storms can have devastating effects on power grids. The largest geomagnetic storm ever recorded - called the Carrington Event - occurred in 1859 and produced Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs) strong enough to set fires in telegraph offices. It has been estimated that if such a storm occurred today, it would have devastating, long-lasting effects on the North American power transmission infrastructure. Acutely aware of this imminent threat, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) was recently instructed to establish requirements for transmission system performance during geomagnetic disturbance (GMD) events and, although the benchmarks adopted were based on the best available data at the time, they suffer from a severely limited physical understanding of the behavior of GMDs and the resulting GICs for strong events. To rectify these deficiencies, we are developing a first-of-its-kind data-informed modelling capability that will provide transformational understanding of the underlying physical mechanisms responsible for the most harmful intense localized GMDs and their impacts on real power transmission networks. This work is being conducted in two separate modes of operation: (1) using historical, well-observed large storm intervals for which robust data-assimilation can be performed, and (2) extending the modelling into a predictive realm in order to assess impacts of poorly and/or never-before observed Carrington-class events. Results of this work are expected to include a potential replacement for the current NERC benchmarking methodology and the development of mitigation strategies in real power grid networks. We report on progress to date and show some preliminary results of modeling large (but not yet extreme) events.

Environmental conditions as the cause of the great mass extinction of marine organisms in the Late Devonian

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barash, M. S.

2017-08-01

During the Late Devonian extinction, 70-82% of all marine species disappeared. The main causes of this mass extinction include tectonic activity, climate and sea-level fluctuations, volcanism, and the collision of the Earth with cosmic bodies (impact events). The major causes are considered to be volcanism accompanying formation of the Viluy traps and, probably, basaltic magmatism in the Southern Urals, alkaline magmatism within the East European platform, and volcanism in northern Iran and northern and southern China. Several large impact craters of Late Devonian age have been documented in different parts of the world. The available data indicate that this time period on the Earth was marked by two major sequences of events: terrestrial events that resulted in extensive volcanism and cosmic (or impact) events. They produced similar effects such as emissions of harmful chemical compounds and aerosols to cause greenhouse warming and the darkening of the atmosphere, which prevented photosynthesis and cause ocean stagnation and anoxia. This disrupted the food chain and reduced ecosystem productivity. As a result, all vital processes were disturbed and a large part of the marine biota became extinct.

Erosion during extreme flood events dominates Holocene canyon evolution in northeast Iceland.

PubMed

Baynes, Edwin R C; Attal, Mikaël; Niedermann, Samuel; Kirstein, Linda A; Dugmore, Andrew J; Naylor, Mark

2015-02-24

Extreme flood events have the potential to cause catastrophic landscape change in short periods of time (10(0) to 10(3) h). However, their impacts are rarely considered in studies of long-term landscape evolution (>10(3) y), because the mechanisms of erosion during such floods are poorly constrained. Here we use topographic analysis and cosmogenic (3)He surface exposure dating of fluvially sculpted surfaces to determine the impact of extreme flood events within the Jökulsárgljúfur canyon (northeast Iceland) and to constrain the mechanisms of bedrock erosion during these events. Surface exposure ages allow identification of three periods of intense canyon cutting about 9 ka ago, 5 ka ago, and 2 ka ago during which multiple large knickpoints retreated large distances (>2 km). During these events, a threshold flow depth was exceeded, leading to the toppling and transportation of basalt lava columns. Despite continuing and comparatively large-scale (500 m(3)/s) discharge of sediment-rich glacial meltwater, there is no evidence for a transition to an abrasion-dominated erosion regime since the last erosive event because the vertical knickpoints have not diffused over time. We provide a model for the evolution of the Jökulsárgljúfur canyon through the reconstruction of the river profile and canyon morphology at different stages over the last 9 ka and highlight the dominant role played by extreme flood events in the shaping of this landscape during the Holocene.

Erosion during extreme flood events dominates Holocene canyon evolution in northeast Iceland

PubMed Central

Baynes, Edwin R. C.; Attal, Mikaël; Kirstein, Linda A.; Dugmore, Andrew J.; Naylor, Mark

2015-01-01

Extreme flood events have the potential to cause catastrophic landscape change in short periods of time (100 to 103 h). However, their impacts are rarely considered in studies of long-term landscape evolution (>103 y), because the mechanisms of erosion during such floods are poorly constrained. Here we use topographic analysis and cosmogenic 3He surface exposure dating of fluvially sculpted surfaces to determine the impact of extreme flood events within the Jökulsárgljúfur canyon (northeast Iceland) and to constrain the mechanisms of bedrock erosion during these events. Surface exposure ages allow identification of three periods of intense canyon cutting about 9 ka ago, 5 ka ago, and 2 ka ago during which multiple large knickpoints retreated large distances (>2 km). During these events, a threshold flow depth was exceeded, leading to the toppling and transportation of basalt lava columns. Despite continuing and comparatively large-scale (500 m3/s) discharge of sediment-rich glacial meltwater, there is no evidence for a transition to an abrasion-dominated erosion regime since the last erosive event because the vertical knickpoints have not diffused over time. We provide a model for the evolution of the Jökulsárgljúfur canyon through the reconstruction of the river profile and canyon morphology at different stages over the last 9 ka and highlight the dominant role played by extreme flood events in the shaping of this landscape during the Holocene. PMID:25675484

Assessing Atmospheric Water Injection from Oceanic Impacts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pierazzo, E.

2005-01-01

Collisions of asteroids and comets with the Earth s surface are rare events that punctuate the geologic record. Due to the vastness of Earth s oceans, oceanic impacts of asteroids or comets are expected to be about 4 times more frequent than land impacts. The resulting injections of oceanic water into the upper atmosphere can have important repercussions on Earth s climate and atmospheric circulation. However, the duration and overall effect of these large injections are still unconstrained. This work addresses atmospheric injections of large amounts of water in oceanic impacts.

Petrologic evidence for collisional heating of chondritic asteroids

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rubin, Alan E.

1995-01-01

The identification of the mechanism(s) responsible for heating asteroids is among the major problems in planetary science. Because of difficulties with models of electromagnetic induction and the decay of short-lived radionuclides, it is worthwhile to evaluate the evidence for collisional heating. New evidence for localized impact heating comes from the high proportion of relict type-6 material among impact-melt-bearing ordinary chondrites (OC). This relict material was probably metamorphosed by residual heat within large craters. Olivine aggregates composed of faceted crystals with 120 deg triple junctions occur within the melted regions of the Chico and Rose City OC melt rocks; the olivine aggregates formed from shocked, mosaicized olivine grains that underwent contact metamorphism. Large-scale collisional heating is supoorted by the correlation in OC between petrologic type and shock stage; no other heating mechanism can readily account for this correlation. The occurrence of impact-melt-rock clasts in OC that have been metamorphosed along with their whole rocks indicates that some impact events preceded or accompanied thermal metamorphism. Such impacts events, occurring during or shortly after accretion, are probably responsible for substantially melting approximately 0.5% of OC. These events must have heated a larger percentage of OC to subsolidus temperatures sufficient to have caused significant metamorphism. If collisional heating is viable, then OC parent asteroids must have been large; large OC asteroids in the main belt may include those of the S(IV) spectral subtype. Collisional heating is inconsistent with layered ('onion-shell') structures in OC asteroids (wherein the degree of metamorphism increases with depth), but the evidence for such structures is weak. It seems likely that collisional heating played an important role in metamorphosing chondritic asteroids.

Moisture source classification of heavy precipitation events in Switzerland in the last 130 years (1871-2011)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aemisegger, Franziska; Piaget, Nicolas

2017-04-01

A new weather-system oriented classification framework of extreme precipitation events leading to large-scale floods in Switzerland is presented on this poster. Thirty-six high impact floods in the last 130 years are assigned to three representative categories of atmospheric moisture origin and transport patterns. The methodology underlying this moisture source classification combines information of the airmass history in the twenty days preceding the precipitation event with humidity variations along the large-scale atmospheric transport systems in a Lagrangian approach. The classification scheme is defined using the 33-year ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset (1979-2011) and is then applied to the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (1871-2011) extreme precipitation events as well as the 36 selected floods. The three defined categories are characterised by different dominant moisture uptake regions including the North Atlantic, the Mediterranean and continental Europe. Furthermore, distinct anomalies in the large-scale atmospheric flow are associated with the different categories. The temporal variations in the relative importance of the three categories over the last 130 years provides new insights into the impact of changing climate conditions on the dynamical mechanisms leading to heavy precipitation in Switzerland.

Large natural geophysical events: planetary planning

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Knox, J.B.; Smith, J.V.

1984-09-01

Geological and geophysical data suggest that during the evolution of the earth and its species, that there have been many mass extinctions due to large impacts from comets and large asteroids, and major volcanic events. Today, technology has developed to the stage where we can begin to consider protective measures for the planet. Evidence of the ecological disruption and frequency of these major events is presented. Surveillance and warning systems are most critical to develop wherein sufficient lead times for warnings exist so that appropriate interventions could be designed. The long term research undergirding these warning systems, implementation, and proofmore » testing is rich in opportunities for collaboration for peace.« less

Impact ejecta layer from the mid-Devonian: possible connection to global mass extinctions.

PubMed

Ellwood, Brooks B; Benoist, Stephen L; El Hassani, Ahmed; Wheeler, Christopher; Crick, Rex E

2003-06-13

We have found evidence for a bolide impacting Earth in the mid-Devonian ( approximately 380 million years ago), including high concentrations of shocked quartz, Ni, Cr, As, V, and Co anomalies; a large negative carbon isotope shift (-9 per mil); and microspherules and microcrysts at Jebel Mech Irdane in the Anti Atlas desert near Rissani, Morocco. This impact is important because it is coincident with a major global extinction event (Kacák/otomari event), suggesting a possible cause-and-effect relation between the impact and the extinction. The result may represent the extinction of as many as 40% of all living marine animal genera.

Impact Ejecta Layer from the Mid-Devonian: Possible Connection to Global Mass Extinctions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ellwood, Brooks B.; Benoist, Stephen L.; Hassani, Ahmed El; Wheeler, Christopher; Crick, Rex E.

2003-06-01

We have found evidence for a bolide impacting Earth in the mid-Devonian (~380 million years ago), including high concentrations of shocked quartz, Ni, Cr, As, V, and Co anomalies; a large negative carbon isotope shift (-9 per mil); and microspherules and microcrysts at Jebel Mech Irdane in the Anti Atlas desert near Rissani, Morocco. This impact is important because it is coincident with a major global extinction event (Kacák/otomari event), suggesting a possible cause-and-effect relation between the impact and the extinction. The result may represent the extinction of as many as 40% of all living marine animal genera.

On NEO Threat Mitigation (Preprint)

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-10-15

Yucatan event is at least a major contributor, if not the direct cause of the extinction of the dinosaurs . Moreover, it is clear that NEO impacts can... extinction of the human race. The probability of these events decreases with the severity of the impact, and size (mass) of the NEO. Figure 1 and Table 1...thus, it is more reasonable to infer that all the large NEOs can be catalogued within a reasonable time, while smaller and less consequential

Tying Extinction Events to Comet Impacts Large Enough to Cause an Extinction in Themselves.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burgener, J. A.

2017-12-01

Comets over 35 km in size impacting Earth will create vast fireballs, and will boil large parts of the oceans, causing extinction events in themselves. They will likely provide enough energy to shatter the crust and eject large masses of molten rock from the mantle, forming traps. Traps are clearly associated with extinction events, but are not expected to cause extinctions. While Chicxulub is recognized to have occurred at the time of the K/Pg boundary layer, it is recognized as being too small in itself to cause an extinction. Are large comet impacts likely? The Kuiper belt has more than 100,000 objects over 100 km in diameter and millions over 10 km. Typically their orbits are less stable than asteroid orbits due to large bodies such as Pluto moving through the belt. The asteroid belt has only 10,000 objects over 10 km diameter. Comet impacts should be more common than asteroid impacts, yet none of the recognized craters are expected to be due to comets. There are many features on Earth that are poorly explained by Plate Tectonics that would be well explained if they were considered to be comet impact craters. A consideration of the Black Sea and the Tarim Basin will show that impact interpretations are a better fit than the present Plate Tectonics' explanations. Both basins are in the midst of mountain building from plate collisions, but are themselves not being disturbed by the plate collisions. Both are ellipses angled at 23.4 degrees to the equator, matching the angle expected for a low angle impact from a comet traveling in the ecliptic. Both are too deep at 15 km depths to be standard oceans (typically 5 km deep). Both are filled with horizontal layers of sediments, undisturbed by the mountain building occurring at the edges. Both have thin crusts and high Moho boundaries. Both have thin lithosphere. Yet both show GPS movement of the land around them moving away from them, as though they were much thicker and stronger than the surrounding land. The Tarim Basin is 1000 km X 380 km, and the Black Sea is in two sections each 600 km X 350 km. They would require impactors in the range of 35 - 40 km diameter, hitting at impact angles of 20 - 30 degrees. The fireballs from such impacts would cover nearly half the planet, which would be large enough in themselves to cause extinctions.

Recent collisional jet from a primitive asteroid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Novaković, Bojan; Dell'Oro, Aldo; Cellino, Alberto; Knežević, Zoran

2012-09-01

In this paper we show an example of a young asteroid cluster located in a dynamically stable region, which was produced by partial disruption of a primitive body about 30 km in size. We estimate its age to be only 1.9 ± 0.3 Myr; thus, its post-impact evolution should have been very limited. The large difference in size between the largest object and the other cluster members means that this was a cratering event. The parent body had a large orbital inclination and was subject to collisions with typical impact speeds higher by a factor of 2 than in the most common situations encountered in the main belt. For the first time, we have at our disposal the observable outcome of a very recent event to study high-speed collisions involving primitive asteroids, providing very useful constraints to numerical simulations of these events and to laboratory experiments.

The mountain-lowland debate: deforestation and sediment transport in the upper Ganga catchment.

PubMed

Wasson, R J; Juyal, N; Jaiswal, M; McCulloch, M; Sarin, M M; Jain, V; Srivastava, P; Singhvi, A K

2008-07-01

The Himalaya-Gangetic Plain region is the iconic example of the debate about the impact on lowlands of upland land-use change. Some of the scientific aspects of this debate are revisited by using new techniques to examine the role of deforestation in erosion and river sediment transport. The approach is whole-of-catchment, combining a history of deforestation with a history of sediment sources from well before deforestation. It is shown that deforestation had some effect on one very large erosional event in 1970, in the Alaknanda subcatchment of the Upper Ganga catchment, but that both deforestation and its effects on erosion and sediment transport are far from uniform in the Himalaya. Large magnitude erosional events occur for purely natural reasons. The impact on the Gangetic Plain of erosion caused by natural events and land cover change remains uncertain.

Establishing the chronology of explosive super-eruptions in the record of the Yellowstone hotspot track (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reichow, M. K.; Branney, M. J.; Knott, T.; Storey, M.; Finn, D. R.; Coe, R. S.; McCurry, M. O.; Bonnichsen, B.

2013-12-01

Although caldera-forming super-eruptions (≥450 km3) are amongst the most catastrophic events to affect the Earth's surface, we do not know how often they occur globally, and how large the individual eruptions are. This is because, with a few exceptions, the vast volcanic stratigraphies at many large igneous provinces have not yet been resolved in sufficient detail to isolate and quantify the individual events. Much progress is needed on this if we are to verify the past and potential environmental and climatic impact of these super-eruptions. We are reconstructing the history of catastrophic eruptions in the youngest and best-preserved large intra continental volcanic province worldwide, by resolving the vast Miocene rhyolitic volcanic stratigraphy of the central Snake River Plain, Idaho. Large explosive eruptions, several previously un-documented, generated an unusually hot (<1050°C) pyroclastic density current that inundated large (1000's km2) regions, which were sterilised as entire landscapes were abruptly enamelled with extensive sheets of searing-hot rhyolitic glass 5-100 m thick. The density currents also generated thermal atmospheric plumes (phoenix clouds) that dispersed 100's to 1000's of km3 rhyolitic ash 1000's of km across continental USA and beyond. High-precision chronology and quantification of the erupted volumes and the frequency of eruptions is needed to assess the likely significant wider impact of these events on climate and ecosystems. To determine the size of the individual events, we have been correlating each soil-bounded eruption-unit regionally. This is hindered by their abundance, and closely similar appearance within monotonous successions exposed in distant (50-200 km) mountain ranges. To tackle this we are employing a combination of tools to isolate and correlate individual layers: field logging coupled with characterization of the whole-rock, glass, and mineral chemistries, together with high-precision 40Ar/39Ar dating, U-Pb zircon dating, with detailed paleomagnetic characterisation of polarities and secular variations. This multidisciplinary approach is yielding robust ';fingerprints'; to distinguish individual eruptions, and facilitate robust correlations between sites spaced >100 km apart. The high-precision chronology, together with secular variations, should provide a much-needed basis for starting to assess the environmental impact of these awesome events. The study also should contribute to our understanding of the global frequency of large events.

The October 2015 flash-floods in south eastern France: hydrological analyses, inundation mapping and impact estimations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Payrastre, Olivier; Bourgin, François; Lebouc, Laurent; Le Bihan, Guillaume; Gaume, Eric

2017-04-01

The October 2015 flash-floods in south eastern France caused more than twenty fatalities, high damages and large economic losses in high density urban areas of the Mediterranean coast, including the cities of Mandelieu-La Napoule, Cannes and Antibes. Following a post event survey and preliminary analyses conducted within the framework of the Hymex project, we set up an entire simulation chain at the regional scale to better understand this outstanding event. Rainfall-runoff simulations, inundation mapping and a first estimation of the impacts are conducted following the approach developed and successfully applied for two large flash-flood events in two different French regions (Gard in 2002 and Var in 2010) by Le Bihan (2016). A distributed rainfall-runoff model applied at high resolution for the whole area - including numerous small ungauged basins - is used to feed a semi-automatic hydraulic approach (Cartino method) applied along the river network - including small tributaries. Estimation of the impacts is then performed based on the delineation of the flooded areas and geographic databases identifying buildings and population at risk.

Global economic impacts of severe Space Weather.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schulte In Den Baeumen, Hagen; Cairns, Iver

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) strong enough to create electromagnetic effects at latitudes below the auroral oval are frequent events, and could have substantial impacts on electric power transmission and telecommunication grids. Modern society’s heavy reliance on these domestic and international networks increases our susceptibility to such a severe Space Weather event. Using a new high-resolution model of the global economy we simulate the economic impact of large CMEs for 3 different planetary orientations. We account for the economic impacts within the countries directly affected as well as the post-disaster economic shock in partner economies through international trade. For the CMEs modeled the total global economic impacts would range from US 380 billion to US 1 trillion. Of this total economic shock 50 % would be felt in countries outside the zone of direct impact, leading to a loss in global GDP of 0.1 - 1 %. A severe Space Weather event could lead to global economic damages of the same order as other weather disasters, climate change, and extreme financial crisis.

Constructing An Event Based Aerosol Product Under High Aerosol Loading Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levy, R. C.; Shi, Y.; Mattoo, S.; Remer, L. A.; Zhang, J.

2016-12-01

High aerosol loading events, such as the Indonesia's forest fire in Fall 2015 or the persistent wintertime haze near Beijing, gain tremendous interests due to their large impact on regional visibility and air quality. Understanding the optical properties of these events and further being able to simulate and predict these events are beneficial. However, it is a great challenge to consistently identify and then retrieve aerosol optical depth (AOD) from passive sensors during heavy aerosol events. Some reasons include:1). large differences between optical properties of high-loading aerosols and those under normal conditions, 2) spectral signals of optically thick aerosols can be mistaken with surface depending on aerosol types, and 3) Extremely optically thick aerosol plumes can also be misidentified as clouds due to its high optical thickness. Thus, even under clear-sky conditions, the global distribution of extreme aerosol events is not well captured in datasets such as the MODIS Dark-Target (DT) aerosol product. In this study, with the synthetic use of OMI Aerosol Index, MODIS cloud product, and operational DT product, the heavy smoke events over the seven sea region are identified and retrieved over the dry season. An event based aerosol product that would compensate the standard "global" aerosol retrieval will be created and evaluated. The impact of missing high AOD retrievals on the regional aerosol climatology will be studied using this newly developed research product.

Impact Constraints on Major Events in Early Mars History

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frey, H. V.

2004-01-01

MOLA data have revealed a large population of "Quasi-Circular Depressions" (QCDs) with little or no visible expression in image data. These likely buried impact basins have important implications for the age of the lowland crust, how that compares with original highland crust, and when and how the crustal dichotomy may have formed. The buried lowlands are of Early Noachian age, likely slightly younger than the buried highlands but older than the exposed (visible) highland surface. A depopulation of large visible basins at diameters 800 to 1300 km suggests some global scale event early in martian history, maybe related to the formation of the lowlands and/or the development of Tharsis. A suggested early disappearance of the global magnetic field can be placed within a temporal sequence of formation of the very largest impact basins. The global field appears to have disappeared at about the time the lowlands formed. It seems likely the topographic crustal dichotomy was produced very early in martian history by processes which operated very quickly. Thus there appears to have been a northern lowland throughout nearly all of martian history, predating the last of the really large impacts (Hellas, Argyre and Isidis) and their likely very significant environmental consequences.

An impact-driven dynamo for the early Moon.

PubMed

Le Bars, M; Wieczorek, M A; Karatekin, O; Cébron, D; Laneuville, M

2011-11-09

The origin of lunar magnetic anomalies remains unresolved after their discovery more than four decades ago. A commonly invoked hypothesis is that the Moon might once have possessed a thermally driven core dynamo, but this theory is problematical given the small size of the core and the required surface magnetic field strengths. An alternative hypothesis is that impact events might have amplified ambient fields near the antipodes of the largest basins, but many magnetic anomalies exist that are not associated with basin antipodes. Here we propose a new model for magnetic field generation, in which dynamo action comes from impact-induced changes in the Moon's rotation rate. Basin-forming impact events are energetic enough to have unlocked the Moon from synchronous rotation, and we demonstrate that the subsequent large-scale fluid flows in the core, excited by the tidal distortion of the core-mantle boundary, could have powered a lunar dynamo. Predicted surface magnetic field strengths are on the order of several microteslas, consistent with palaeomagnetic measurements, and the duration of these fields is sufficient to explain the central magnetic anomalies associated with several large impact basins.

Evidence of resilience to past climate change in Southwest Asia: Early farming communities and the 9.2 and 8.2 ka events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flohr, Pascal; Fleitmann, Dominik; Matthews, Roger; Matthews, Wendy; Black, Stuart

2016-03-01

Climate change is often cited as a major factor in social change. The so-called 8.2 ka event was one of the most pronounced and abrupt Holocene cold and arid events. The 9.2 ka event was similar, albeit of a smaller magnitude. Both events affected the Northern Hemisphere climate and caused cooling and aridification in Southwest Asia. Yet, the impacts of the 8.2 and 9.2 ka events on early farming communities in this region are not well understood. Current hypotheses for an effect of the 8.2 ka event vary from large-scale site abandonment and migration (including the Neolithisation of Europe) to continuation of occupation and local adaptation, while impacts of the 9.2 ka have not previously been systematically studied. In this paper, we present a thorough assessment of available, quality-checked radiocarbon (14C) dates for sites from Southwest Asia covering the time interval between 9500 and 7500 cal BP, which we interpret in combination with archaeological evidence. In this way, the synchronicity between changes observed in the archaeological record and the rapid climate events is tested. It is shown that there is no evidence for a simultaneous and widespread collapse, large-scale site abandonment, or migration at the time of the events. However, there are indications for local adaptation. We conclude that early farming communities were resilient to the abrupt, severe climate changes at 9250 and 8200 cal BP.

Interactions between sediment storage and bed material transport: A field and flume study

Treesearch

Bonnie J. Smith; Thomas E. Lisle; Diane G. Sutherland; Sue Hilton; Harvey M. Kelsey; Eileen M. Cashman

2002-01-01

Significant channel aggradation events have occurred in numerous coastal northern California watersheds over the past 50 years, leaving lasting impacts on stream channel morphology and habitats. Our study focuses on sediment movement and channel morphology following large aggradation events and specifically focuses on the relationship between volume of stored sediment...

Periodic cometary showers: Real or imaginary?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grieve, R. A. F.; Sharpton, V. L.; Goodacre, A. K.; Garvin, J. B.

1985-01-01

Since the initial reports in 1980, a considerable body of chemical and physical evidence has been accumulated to indicate that a major impact event occurred on earth 65 million years ago. The effects of this event were global in extent and have been suggested as the cause of the sudden demise or mass extinction of a large percentage of life, including the dinosaurs, at the end of the geologic time period known as the Cretaceous. Recent statistical analyses of extinctions in the marine faunal record for the last 250 million years have suggested that mass extinctions may occur with a periodicity of every 26 to 30 million years. Following these results, other workers have attempted to demonstrate that these extinction events, like that at the end of the Cretaceous, are temporally correlated with large impact events. A recent scenario suggests that they are the result of periodic showers of comets produced by either the passage of the solar system through the galactic plane or by perturbations of the cometary cloud in the outer solar system by a, as yet unseen, solar companion. This hypothesized solar companion has been given the name Nemesis.

Quantifying uncertainty in real time performance measurement for highway winter maintenance operations - phase 2 : [tech transfer summary].

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-10-01

Winter weather in Iowa is often unpredictable and can have a large : impact on traffic flow. The Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) : attempts to lessen the impact of winter weather events on traffic speeds : with various maintenance operations....

Attributing anthropogenic impact on regional heat wave events using CAM5 model large ensemble simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lo, S. H.; Chen, C. T.

2017-12-01

Extreme heat waves have serious impacts on society. It was argued that the anthropogenic forcing might substantially increase the risk of extreme heat wave events (e.g. over western Europe in 2003 and over Russia in 2010). However, the regional dependence of such anthropogenic impact and the sensitivity of the attributed risk to the definition of heat wave still require further studies. In our research framework, the change in the frequency and severity of a heat wave event under current conditions is calculated and compared with the probability and magnitude of the event if the effects of particular external forcing, such as due to human influence, had been absent. In our research, we use the CAM5 large ensemble simulation from the CLIVAR C20C+ Detection and Attribution project (http://portal.nersc.gov/c20c/main.html, Folland et al. 2014) to detect the heat wave events occurred in both historical all forcing run and natural forcing only run. The heat wave events are identified by partial duration series method (Huth et al., 2000). We test the sensitivity of heat wave thresholds from daily maximum temperature (Tmax) in warm season (from May to September) between 1959 and 2013. We consider the anthropogenic effect on the later period (2000-2013) when the warming due to human impact is more evident. Using Taiwan and surrounding area as our preliminary research target, We found the anthropogenic effect will increase the heat wave day per year from 30 days to 75 days and make the mean starting(ending) day for heat waves events about 15-30 days earlier(later). Using the Fraction of Attribution Risk analysis to estimate the risk of frequency of heat wave day, our results show the anthropogenic forcing very likely increase the heat wave days over Taiwan by more than 50%. Further regional differences and sensitivity of the attributed risk to the definition of heat wave will be compared and discussed.

Shock-induced microdeformations in quartz and other mineralogical indications of an impact event at the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bohor, B.F.

1990-01-01

The event terminating the Cretaceous period and the Mesozoic era caused massive extinctions of flora and fauna worldwide. Theories of the nature of this event can be classed as endogenic (volcanic, climatic, etc.) or exogenic (extraterrestrial causes). Mineralogical evidence from the boundary clays and claystones strongly favor the impact of an extraterrestrial body as the cause of this event. Nonmarine KT boundary claystones are comprised of two separate layers-an upper layer composed of high-angle ejecta material (shocked quartz, altered glass and spinel) and a basal kaolinitic layer containing spherules, clasts, and altered glass, together with some shocked grains. Recognition of this dual-layered nature of the boundary clay is important for the determination of the timing and processes involved in the impact event and in the assignment and interpretation of geochemical signatures. Multiple sets of shock-induced microdeformations (planar features) in quartz grains separated from KT boundary clays provide compelling evidence of an impact event. This mineralogical manifestation of shock metamorphism is associated worldwide with a large positive anomaly of iridium in these boundary clays, which has also been considered indicative of the impact of a large extraterrestrial body. Global distributions of maximum sizes of shocked quartz grains from the boundary clays and the mineralogy of the ejecta components favor an impact on or near the North American continent. Spinel crystals (magnesioferrite) occur in the boundary clays as micrometer-sized octahedra or skeletal forms. Their composition differs from that of spinels found in terrestrial oceanic basalts. Magnesioferrite crystals are restricted to the high-angle ejecta layer of the boundary clays and their small size and skeletal morphology suggest that they are condensation products of a vaporized bolide. Hollow spherules ranging up to 1 mm in size are ubiquitously associated with the boundary clays. In nonmarine sections, where a high-angle ejecta layer and an underlying kaolinitic layer can be distinguished, the spherules are found only in the kaolinitic layer. The morphologies and surface features of these spherules suggest that they are original forms, and not secondary growths or algal bodies. These impact spherules closely resemble microtektites in size and shape. All of these features of the boundary clay are uniquely associated with impact, and cannot have been formed by volcanic or other terrestrial processes. ?? 1990.

Examining the social ecology of a bar-crawl: An exploratory pilot study.

PubMed

Clapp, John D; Madden, Danielle R; Mooney, Douglas D; Dahlquist, Kristin E

2017-01-01

Many of the problems associated with alcohol occur after a single drinking event (e.g. drink driving, assault). These acute alcohol problems have a huge global impact and account for a large percentage of unintentional and intentional injuries in the world. Nonetheless, alcohol research and preventive interventions rarely focus on drinking at the event-level since drinking events are complex, dynamic, and methodologically challenging to observe. This exploratory study provides an example of how event-level data may be collected, analyzed, and interpreted. The drinking behavior of twenty undergraduate students enrolled at a large Midwestern public university was observed during a single bar crawl event that is organized by students annually. Alcohol use was monitored with transdermal alcohol devices coupled with ecological momentary assessments and geospatial data. "Small N, Big Data" studies have the potential to advance health behavior theory and to guide real-time interventions. However, such studies generate large amounts of within subject data that can be challenging to analyze and present. This study examined how to visually display event-level data and also explored the relationship between some basic indicators and alcohol consumption.

Large-Scale Impact Cratering and Early Earth Evolution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grieve, R. A. F.; Cintala, M. J.

1997-01-01

The surface of the Moon attests to the importance of large-scale impact in its early crustal evolution. Previous models of the effects of a massive bombardment on terrestrial crustal evolution have relied on analogies with the Moon, with allowances for the presence of water and a thinner lithosphere. It is now apparent that strict lunar-terrestrial analogies are incorrect because of the "differential scaling" of crater dimensions and melt volumes with event size and planetary gravity. Impact melt volumes and "ancient cavity dimensions for specific impacts were modeled according to previous procedures. In the terrestrial case, the melt volume (V(sub m)) exceeds that of the transient cavity (V(sub tc)) at diameters > or = 400 km. This condition is reached on the Moon only with transient cavity diameters > or = 3000 km, equivalent to whole Moon melting. The melt volumes in these large impact events are minimum estimates, since, at these sizes, the higher temperature of the target rocks at depth will increase melt production. Using the modification-scaling relation of Croft, a transient cavity diameter of about 400 km in the terrestrial environment corresponds to an expected final impact "basin" diameter of about 900 km. Such a "basin" would be comparable in dimensions to the lunar basin Orientale. This 900-km "basin" on the early Earth, however, would not have had the appearance of Orientale. It would have been essentially a melt pool, and, morphologically, would have had more in common with the palimpsests structures on Callisto and Ganymede. With the terrestrial equivalents to the large multiring basins of the Moon being manifested as muted palimpsest-like structures filled with impact melt, it is unlikely they played a role in establishing the freeboard on the early Earth. The composition of the massive impact melt sheets (> 10 (exp 7) cu km) produced in "basin-forming" events on the early Earth would have most likely ranged from basaltic to more mafic for the largest impacts, where the melt volume would have reached well into the mantle. Any contribution from adiabatic melting or shock heating of the asthenosphere would have had similar mafic compositions. The depth of the melt sheets is unknown but would have been in the multilkilometer range. Bodies of basaltic melt > or = 300 m thick differentiate in the terrestrial environment, with the degree of differentiation being a function of the thickness of the body. We therefore expect that these thick, closed-system melt pools would have differentiated into an ultramafic-mafic base and felsic top. If only 10% of the impact melt produced in a single event creating a 400-km diameter transient cavity evolved into felsic differentiates, they would be comparable in volume to the Columbia River basalts. It has been estimated that at least 200 impact events of this size or larger occurred on the early Earth during a period of heavy bombardment. We speculate that these massive differentiated melt sheets may have had a role in the formation of the initial felsic component of the Earth's crust. Additional information is contained in the original.

Terrestrial Evidence for Holocene Pluvials in Coastal Southern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reynolds, L.; Simms, A.; Rockwell, T. K.; Peters, R. B.

2016-12-01

In 1861 a series of large storms attributed to a prolonged atmospheric river event impacted the coast of California, inundated large regions of the state for weeks on end, stalled the government, and devastated the economy. A recent report by the USGS, the Arkstorm Report, predicted a similar sized event today could cost the state more than $700 billion in long-term economic losses. The high-resolution sedimentary record from the Santa Barbara Basin indicates 8 flooding events similar to or larger than the 1861 event have occurred in the past 2000 years. However, little terrestrial evidence for these events has been identified to determine coastal impacts or test the completeness of the Santa Barbara Channel record. Here we show evidence from coastal wetlands along the Santa Barbara Channel that alluvial fan progradation events have recurred at least 7 times over the last 7ka. Because most streams in the Transverse ranges flow only during storms, these alluvial fan building events are interpreted to represent large flooding events. We use a chronology derived from over 40 radiocarbon dates from 39 vibracores up to 4m in length, and 7 Geoprobe cores up to 13m in length from Carpinteria Marsh to test whether these alluvial fan progradation events and/or other abrupt stratigraphic changes are synchronous with regionally documented climatic events. We show that a compilation of biological, sedimentological, geochemical, and archeological proxies for flooding, storms, and/or wet climate conditions from sites throughout the southwestern United States demonstrates the difficulty in correlating and interpreting regional Holocene events across variable proxies and geographic regions. Despite this variation, isolating the purely sedimentological proxies (increase in sedimentation rates, increase in grain size, decrease in organic content, etc.) seems to demonstrate a correlation between alluvial fan progradation events in Carpinteria at 0.3-0.9 ka and 3.5 ka and records of wet conditions throughout the western US, while a lack of alluvial fan deposits from 2-3 ka correlates with the Late Holocene Dry Period. Whether these flooding events represent increased occurrences of atmospheric river events, heightened El Nino activity, or longer-term changes in atmospheric conditions remains an open question.

Impact and recovery process of mini flash crashes: An empirical study.

PubMed

Braun, Tobias; Fiegen, Jonas A; Wagner, Daniel C; Krause, Sebastian M; Guhr, Thomas

2018-01-01

In an Ultrafast Extreme Event (or Mini Flash Crash), the price of a traded stock increases or decreases strongly within milliseconds. We present a detailed study of Ultrafast Extreme Events in stock market data. In contrast to popular belief, our analysis suggests that most of the Ultrafast Extreme Events are not necessarily due to feedbacks in High Frequency Trading: In at least 60 percent of the observed Ultrafast Extreme Events, the largest fraction of the price change is due to a single market order. In times of financial crisis, large market orders are more likely which leads to a significant increase of Ultrafast Extreme Events occurrences. Furthermore, we analyze the 100 trades following each Ultrafast Extreme Events. While we observe a tendency of the prices to partially recover, less than 40 percent recover completely. On the other hand we find 25 percent of the Ultrafast Extreme Events to be almost recovered after only one trade which differs from the usually found price impact of market orders.

Impact and recovery process of mini flash crashes: An empirical study

PubMed Central

Wagner, Daniel C.; Krause, Sebastian M.; Guhr, Thomas

2018-01-01

In an Ultrafast Extreme Event (or Mini Flash Crash), the price of a traded stock increases or decreases strongly within milliseconds. We present a detailed study of Ultrafast Extreme Events in stock market data. In contrast to popular belief, our analysis suggests that most of the Ultrafast Extreme Events are not necessarily due to feedbacks in High Frequency Trading: In at least 60 percent of the observed Ultrafast Extreme Events, the largest fraction of the price change is due to a single market order. In times of financial crisis, large market orders are more likely which leads to a significant increase of Ultrafast Extreme Events occurrences. Furthermore, we analyze the 100 trades following each Ultrafast Extreme Events. While we observe a tendency of the prices to partially recover, less than 40 percent recover completely. On the other hand we find 25 percent of the Ultrafast Extreme Events to be almost recovered after only one trade which differs from the usually found price impact of market orders. PMID:29782503

Changes in Extreme Events and the Potential Impacts on National Security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bell, J.

2017-12-01

Extreme weather and climate events affect human health by causing death, injury, and illness, as well as having large socio-economic impacts. Climate change has caused changes in extreme event frequency, intensity and geographic distribution, and will continue to be a driver for changes in the future. Some of the extreme events that have already changed are heat waves, droughts, wildfires, flooding rains, coastal flooding, storm surge, and hurricanes. The pathways connecting extreme events to health outcomes and economic losses can be diverse and complex. The difficulty in predicting these relationships comes from the local intricacies of societal and environmental factors that influences the level of exposure. The goal of this presentation is to discuss the national security implications of changes in extreme weather events and demonstrate how changes in extremes can lead to a host cascading issues. To illustrate this point, this presentation will provide examples of the various pathways that extreme events can increase disease burden and cause economic stress.

Tolerance of Sponge Assemblages to Temperature Anomalies: Resilience and Proliferation of Sponges following the 1997–8 El-Niño Southern Oscillation

PubMed Central

Kelmo, Francisco; Bell, James J.; Attrill, Martin J.

2013-01-01

Coral reefs across the world are under threat from a range of stressors, and while there has been considerable focus on the impacts of these stressors on corals, far less is known about their effect on other reef organisms. The 1997–8 El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) had notable and severe impacts on coral reefs worldwide, but not all reef organisms were negatively impacted by this large-scale event. Here we describe how the sponge fauna at Bahia, Brazil was influenced by the 1997–8 ENSO event. Sponge assemblages from three contrasting reef habitats (reef tops, walls and shallow banks) at four sites were assessed annually from 1995 to 2011. The within-habitat sponge diversity did not vary significantly across the study period; however, there was a significant increase in density in all habitats. Multivariate analyses revealed no significant difference in sponge assemblage composition (ANOSIM) between pre- and post-ENSO years for any of the habitats, suggesting that neither the 1997–8 nor any subsequent smaller ENSO events have had any measurable impact on the reef sponge assemblage. Importantly, this is in marked contrast to the results previously reported for a suite of other taxa (including corals, echinoderms, bryozoans, and ascidians), which all suffered mass mortalities as a result of the ENSO event. Our results suggest that of all reef taxa, sponges have the potential to be resilient to large-scale thermal stress events and we hypothesize that sponges might be less affected by projected increases in sea surface temperature compared to other major groups of reef organisms. PMID:24116109

Transfer, loss and physical processing of water in hit-and-run collisions of planetary embryos

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burger, C.; Maindl, T. I.; Schäfer, C. M.

2018-01-01

Collisions between large, similar-sized bodies are believed to shape the final characteristics and composition of terrestrial planets. Their inventories of volatiles such as water are either delivered or at least significantly modified by such events. Besides the transition from accretion to erosion with increasing impact velocity, similar-sized collisions can also result in hit-and-run outcomes for sufficiently oblique impact angles and large enough projectile-to-target mass ratios. We study volatile transfer and loss focusing on hit-and-run encounters by means of smooth particle hydrodynamics simulations, including all main parameters: impact velocity, impact angle, mass ratio and also the total colliding mass. We find a broad range of overall water losses, up to 75% in the most energetic hit-and-run events, and confirm the much more severe consequences for the smaller body also for stripping of volatile layers. Transfer of water between projectile and target inventories is found to be mostly rather inefficient, and final water contents are dominated by pre-collision inventories reduced by impact losses, for similar pre-collision water mass fractions. Comparison with our numerical results shows that current collision outcome models are not accurate enough to reliably predict these composition changes in hit-and-run events. To also account for non-mechanical losses, we estimate the amount of collisionally vaporized water over a broad range of masses and find that these contributions are particularly important in collisions of ˜ Mars-sized bodies, with sufficiently high impact energies, but still relatively low gravity. Our results clearly indicate that the cumulative effect of several (hit-and-run) collisions can efficiently strip protoplanets of their volatile layers, especially the smaller body, as it might be common, e.g., for Earth-mass planets in systems with Super-Earths. An accurate model for stripping of volatiles that can be included in future planet formation simulations has to account for the peculiarities of hit-and-run events and track compositional changes in both large post-collision fragments.

Upscaling Bedrock Erosion Laws from the Point to the Patch and from the Event to the Year

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beer, A. R.; Turowski, J. M.

2017-12-01

Bedrock erosion depends on the interactions between the bedload tools and cover effects. However, it is unclear (i) how well long-term calibrations of existing erosion models can predict individual erosion events, and (ii) whether at-a-point event calibrations can be spatio-temporally upscaled. Here, we evaluate the performance of at-a-point calibrated erosion models by scaling their erosional efficiency coefficients (k-factors). We use continuous measurements of water discharge and bedload transport at 1- minute resolution, supplemented by repeated sub-millimeter-resolution spatial erosion surveys of a concrete slab in a small Swiss pre-alpine stream. Our results confirm the linear dependency of bedrock abrasion on sediment flux under sediment-starved conditions integrated over space (the 0.2m2 slab surface) and time (20 months). The predictive quality of the commonly applied unit stream power (USP) model is strongly susceptible to bedload transport distribution, whereas the bedload-dependent tools-only model yields more reasonable results. Applying the fitted mean model k-factors to a 16-year, 1-minute-resolution time series of discharge and bedload transport shows that the excess USP model EUSP (which includes a discharge threshold for bedload transport) generally predicts cumulative erosion reasonably well. For exceptional events, however, the EUSP model fails to predict the resulting large erosion rates. Hence, for sediment-starved conditions, event-based erosion model calibration can be applied over larger spatio-temporal scales with stationary k-factors, if a discharge threshold for sediment transport is taken into account. The EUSP model is a surrogate to predict long-term erosion given average erosive events, but fails to capture large event erosion rates. Consequently, the erosion tendency during average erosive events is generally matched by overall EUSP modelling, but large and highly erosive events are underpredicted. In such, water discharge does not account for the non-linearity in sediment availability (e.g., due to sudden release of interlocked sediment from the streambed) and in grain impact energies on the bedrock (i.e., large grain impacts dominate total erosion), which are the main drivers of a bedrock channel's morphology.

How much do disasters cost? A comparison of disaster cost estimates in Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ladds, Monique; Keating, Adriana; Handmer, John; Magee, Liam

2017-04-01

Extreme weather events in Australia are common and a large proportion of the population are exposed to such events. Therefore, there is great interest as to how these events will impact Australia's society and economy, which requires understanding the current and historical impact of disasters. Despite global efforts to record and cost disaster impacts, no standardised method of collecting and recording data retrospectively yet exists. The lack of comparability in turn produces quite different analyses of economic impacts. This paper examines five examples of aggregate cost and relative impacts of natural disasters in Australia, and comparisons between them reveal significant data shortcomings. The reliability of data sources, and the methodology employed to analyse them can have significant impacts on conclusions regarding the overall cost of disasters, the relative costs of different disaster types, and the distribution of costs across Australian states. We highlight difficulties with time series comparisons, further complicated by the interdependencies of the databases. We reiterate the need for consistent and comparable data collection and analysis, to respond to the increasing frequency and severity of disasters in Australia.

Volcanoes and human history

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cashman, K. V.; Giordano, G.

2008-10-01

The study of volcanic hazards leads inevitably to questions of how past cultures have lived in volcanically active regions of the world. Here we summarize linkages between volcanological, archaeological and anthropological studies of historic and prehistoric volcanic eruptions, with the goal of evaluating the impact of past eruptions on human populations to better prepare for future events. We use examples from papers collected in this volume to illustrate ways in which volcanological studies aid archaeological investigations by providing basic stratigraphic markers and information about the nature and timing of specific volcanic events. We then turn to archaeological perspectives, which provide physical evidence of the direct impacts of volcanic eruptions, such as site abandonment and human migration, as well as indirect impacts on local cultures as reflected in human artifacts. Finally we review anthropological studies of societal responses to past and recent volcanic eruptions. We pay particular attention to both the psychological impact of catastrophic events and records of these impacts encoded within oral traditions. Taken together these studies record drastic short-term eruption impacts but adaptation to volcanic activity over the longer term, largely through strategies of adaptive land use.

Mass killings and detection of impacts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mclaren, Digby J.

1988-01-01

Highly energetic bolide impacts occur and their flux is known. For larger bodies the energy release is greater than for any other short-term global phenomenon. Such impacts produce or release a large variety of shock induced changes including major atmospheric, sedimentologic, seismic and volcanic events. These events must necessarily leave a variety of records in the stratigraphic column, including mass killings resulting in major changes in population density and reduction or extinction of many taxonomic groups, followed by characteristic patterns of faunal and flora replacement. Of these effects, mass killings, marked by large-scale loss of biomass, are the most easily detected evidence in the field but must be manifest on a near-global scale. Such mass killings that appear to be approximately synchronous and involve disappearance of biomass at a bedding plane in many sedimentologically independent sections globally suggest a common cause and probable synchroneity. Mass killings identify an horizon which may be examined for evidence of cause. Geochemical markers may be ephemeral and absence may not be significant. There appears to be no reason why ongoing phenomena such as climate and sea-level changes are primary causes of anomolous episodic events.

Mass killings and detection of impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McLaren, Digby J.

Highly energetic bolide impacts occur and their flux is known. For larger bodies the energy release is greater than for any other short-term global phenomenon. Such impacts produce or release a large variety of shock induced changes including major atmospheric, sedimentologic, seismic and volcanic events. These events must necessarily leave a variety of records in the stratigraphic column, including mass killings resulting in major changes in population density and reduction or extinction of many taxonomic groups, followed by characteristic patterns of faunal and flora replacement. Of these effects, mass killings, marked by large-scale loss of biomass, are the most easily detected evidence in the field but must be manifest on a near-global scale. Such mass killings that appear to be approximately synchronous and involve disappearance of biomass at a bedding plane in many sedimentologically independent sections globally suggest a common cause and probable synchroneity. Mass killings identify an horizon which may be examined for evidence of cause. Geochemical markers may be ephemeral and absence may not be significant. There appears to be no reason why ongoing phenomena such as climate and sea-level changes are primary causes of anomolous episodic events.

Formulating a subgrid-scale breakup model for microbubble generation from interfacial collisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, Wai Hong Ronald; Mirjalili, Shahab; Urzay, Javier; Mani, Ali; Moin, Parviz

2017-11-01

Multiphase flows often involve impact events that engender important effects like the generation of a myriad of tiny bubbles that are subsequently transported in large liquid bodies. These impact events are created by large-scale phenomena like breaking waves on ocean surfaces, and often involve the relative approach of liquid surfaces. This relative motion generates continuously shrinking length scales as the entrapped gas layer thins and eventually breaks up into microbubbles. The treatment of this disparity in length scales is computationally challenging. In this presentation, a framework is presented that addresses a subgrid-scale (SGS) model aimed at capturing the process of microbubble generation. This work sets up the components in an overarching volume-of-fluid (VoF) toolset and investigates the analytical foundations of an SGS model for describing the breakup of a thin air film trapped between two approaching water bodies in a physical regime corresponding to Mesler entrainment. Constituents of the SGS model, such as the identification of impact events and the accurate computation of the local characteristic curvature in a VoF-based architecture, and the treatment of the air layer breakup, are discussed and illustrated in simplified scenarios. Supported by Office of Naval Research (ONR)/A*STAR (Singapore).

Investigation of large transit vehicle accidents and establishing appropriate protection for wheelchair riders.

PubMed

Shaw, Greg

2008-01-01

Securing wheelchairs and restraining wheelchair riders on buses is difficult for many wheelchair riders and transit providers. This study examined injury-producing events aboard large transit buses in general in an attempt to better understand the potential risks and required protection for wheelchair users. The study found that few injuries and fatalities occur on large transit buses. Examination of the relatively few injury-producing events advanced the understanding of these events in terms of acceleration/deceleration magnitude and direction. Low acceleration/deceleration, or low-g, events such as those involving abrupt braking or turning occur frequently and are associated with approximately half of onboard passenger injuries. Unfortunately, the actual frequency of high-g events was not determined. Most of the injurious events involved the bus rapidly decelerating because of frontal impacts with another vehicle or roadside object. Further study is needed to determine the magnitude and frequency of high-g events. This information is necessary to determine the level of protection commensurate with real-world risk necessary for wheelchair riders in the transit bus environment and may ultimately facilitate the development of easier-to-use safety systems that secure and restrain wheelchairs and their riders.

Oblique impacts: Catastrophic vs. protracted effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schultz, P. H.

1988-01-01

Proposed impacts as the cause of biologic catastrophes at the end of the Cretaceous and Eocene face several enigmas: protracted extinctions, even prior to the stratigraphic cosmogenic signature; widespread but non-uniform dispersal of the meteoritic component; absence of a crater of sufficient size; and evidence for massive intensive fires. Various hypotheses provide reasonable mechanisms for mass mortalities: global cooling by continental impact sites; global warming by oceanic impact sites; contrasting effects of asteroidal, cometary, and even multiple impacts; and stress on an already fragile global environment. Yet not every known large impact is associated with a major biologic catastrophe. An alternative is expanded: the consequences of an oblique impact. The most probable angle of impact is 45 deg with the probability for an impact at smaller angles decreasing: A vertical impact is as rare as a tangential impact with a 5 deg impact angle or less occurring only 8 percent of the time. Consequently a low-angle impact is a rare but probable event. Laboratory experiments at the NASA-Ames Vertical Gun Range reveal important information about cratering efficiency, impact vaporization, projectile dispersal, and phenomenology, thereby providing perspective for possible consequences of such an impact on both the Earth and Moon. Oblique impacts are rare but certain events through geologic time: A 5 deg impact by a 2 km-diameter impactor on the Earth would occur only once in about 18 my with a 10 km-diameter once in about 450 my. Major life extinctions beginning prior to the stratigraphic cosmogenic signature or protracted extinctions seemingly too long after the proposed event may not be evidence against an impact as a cause but evidence for a more complex but probable sequence of events.

A Unified Theory of Impact Crises and Mass Extinctions: Quantitative Tests

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rampino, Michael R.; Haggerty, Bruce M.; Pagano, Thomas C.

1997-01-01

Several quantitative tests of a general hypothesis linking impacts of large asteroids and comets with mass extinctions of life are possible based on astronomical data, impact dynamics, and geological information. The waiting of large-body impacts on the Earth derive from the flux of Earth-crossing asteroids and comets, and the estimated size of impacts capable of causing large-scale environmental disasters, predict that impacts of objects greater than or equal to 5 km in diameter (greater than or equal to 10 (exp 7) Mt TNT equivalent) could be sufficient to explain the record of approximately 25 extinction pulses in the last 540 Myr, with the 5 recorded major mass extinctions related to impacts of the largest objects of greater than or equal to 10 km in diameter (greater than or equal to 10(exp 8) Mt Events). Smaller impacts (approximately 10 (exp 6) Mt), with significant regional environmental effects, could be responsible for the lesser boundaries in the geologic record.

Economic impact profiling of CBRN events: focusing on biological incidents.

PubMed

Cavallini, Simona; Bisogni, Fabio; Mastroianni, Marco

2014-12-01

Chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear (CBRN) incidents, both caused accidentally by human error or natural/technological events and determined intentionally as criminal/malicious/terroristic acts, have consequences that could be differently characterized. In the last years many efforts to analyze the economic impact of terrorist threat have been carried out, while researches specifically concerning CBRN events have not been extensively undertaken. This paper in particular aims at proposing a methodological approach for studying macro-level economic impact profiles of biological incidents caused by weaponized and non-weaponized materials. The suggested approach investigates the economic consequences of biological incidents according to two main dimensions: type of large-scale effect and persistence of effect. Biological incident economic impacts are analyzed taking into account the persistence of effect during time as short-term impact (i.e. immediately after the incident), medium-term impact (i.e. by a month) and long-term impact (i.e. by years). The costs due to preventive countermeasure against biological threats (e.g. prevention, protection and preparedness expenses) are not taken into account. To this purpose, information on the key features of past biological incidents can be used as case studies to try to build impact profiles taking into account the proposed two main dimensions. Consequence management and effect mitigation of CBRN emergencies and disasters may benefit from an ex ante definition of the impact profiling related to this kind of incidents. The final goal of this paper is to define an approach to organize information on possible biological events according to their impact profile for supporting more effective and efficient first responders' prompt actions and policy makers' strategic decisions after the event occurrence.

Consumer perceptions of safety in hospitals.

PubMed

Evans, Sue M; Berry, Jesia G; Smith, Brian J; Esterman, Adrian J

2006-02-22

Studies investigating adverse events have traditionally been principally undertaken from a medical perspective. The impact that experience of an adverse event has on consumer confidence in health care is largely unknown. The objectives of the study were to seek public opinion on 1) the rate and severity of adverse events experienced in hospitals; and 2) the perception of safety in hospitals, so that predictors of lack of safety could be identified. A multistage, clustered survey of persons residing in South Australia (2001), using household interviews (weighted n = 2,884). A total of 67% of respondents aged over forty years reported having at least one member of their household hospitalised in the past five years; with the average being two hospital admissions in five years. Respondents stated that 7.0% (95%CI: 6.2% to 7.9%) of those hospital admissions were associated with an adverse event; 59.7% of respondents (95% CI: 51.4% to 67.5%) rated the adverse event as really serious and 48.5% (95% CI: 40.4% to 56.8%) stated prolonged hospitalisation was required as a consequence of the adverse event. Perception of safety in hospitals was largely affected by the experience of an adverse event; really serious events were the most significant predictor of lack of safety in those aged 40 years and over (RR 2.38; p<0.001). The experience of adverse events negatively impacted on public confidence in hospitals. The consumer-reported adverse event rate in hospitals (7.0%) is similar to that identified using medical record review. Based on estimates from other studies, self-reported claims of adverse events in hospital by consumers appear credible, and should be considered when developing appropriate treatment regimes.

Consumer perceptions of safety in hospitals

PubMed Central

Evans, Sue M; Berry, Jesia G; Smith, Brian J; Esterman, Adrian J

2006-01-01

Background Studies investigating adverse events have traditionally been principally undertaken from a medical perspective. The impact that experience of an adverse event has on consumer confidence in health care is largely unknown. The objectives of the study were to seek public opinion on 1) the rate and severity of adverse events experienced in hospitals; and 2) the perception of safety in hospitals, so that predictors of lack of safety could be identified. Methods A multistage, clustered survey of persons residing in South Australia (2001), using household interviews (weighted n = 2,884). Results A total of 67% of respondents aged over forty years reported having at least one member of their household hospitalised in the past five years; with the average being two hospital admissions in five years. Respondents stated that 7.0% (95%CI: 6.2% to 7.9%) of those hospital admissions were associated with an adverse event; 59.7% of respondents (95% CI: 51.4% to 67.5%) rated the adverse event as really serious and 48.5% (95% CI: 40.4% to 56.8%) stated prolonged hospitalisation was required as a consequence of the adverse event. Perception of safety in hospitals was largely affected by the experience of an adverse event; really serious events were the most significant predictor of lack of safety in those aged 40 years and over (RR 2.38; p<0.001). Conclusion The experience of adverse events negatively impacted on public confidence in hospitals. The consumer-reported adverse event rate in hospitals (7.0%) is similar to that identified using medical record review. Based on estimates from other studies, self-reported claims of adverse events in hospital by consumers appear credible, and should be considered when developing appropriate treatment regimes. PMID:16504067

The Long-term Middle Atmospheric Influence of Very Large Solar Proton Events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jackman, Charles H.; Marsh, Daniel R.; Vitt, Francis M.; Garcia, Rolando R.; Randall, Cora E.; Fleming, Eric L.; Frith, Stacey M.

2008-01-01

Long-term variations in ozone have been caused by both natural and humankind related processes. The humankind or anthropogenic influence on ozone originates from the chlorofluorocarbons and halons (chlorine and bromine) and has led to international regulations greatly limiting the release of these substances. Certain natural ozone influences are also important in polar regions and are caused by the impact of solar charged particles on the atmosphere. Such natural variations have been studied in order to better quantify the human influence on polar ozone. Large-scale explosions on the Sun near solar maximum lead to emissions of charged particles (mainly protons and electrons), some of which enter the Earth's magnetosphere and rain down on the polar regions. "Solar proton events" have been used to describe these phenomena since the protons associated with these solar events sometimes create a significant atmospheric disturbance. We have used the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) to study the long-term (> few months) influences of solar proton events from 1963 through 2004 on stratospheric ozone and temperature. There were extremely large solar proton events in 1972, 1989,2000,2001, and 2003. These events caused very distinctive polar changes in layers of the Earth's atmosphere known as the stratosphere (12-50 km; -7-30 miles) and mesosphere (50-90 km; 30-55 miles). The solar protons connected with these events created hydrogen- and nitrogen-containing compounds, which led to the polar ozone destruction. The nitrogen-containing compounds, called odd nitrogen, lasted much longer than the hydrogen-containing compounds and led to long-lived stratospheric impacts. An extremely active period for these events occurred in the five-year period, 2000- 2004, and caused increases in odd nitrogen which lasted for several months after individual events. Associated stratospheric ozone decreases of >lo% were calculated to last for up to five months past the largest events. However, the computed total column ozone and stratospheric temperature changes connected with the solar events were not found to be statistically significant. Thus, solar proton events do not likely contribute significantly to measured total column ozone fluctuations and stratospheric temperature changes.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shiogama, Hideo; Imada, Yukiko; Mori, Masato

Here, we describe two unprecedented large (100-member), longterm (61-year) ensembles based on MRI-AGCM3.2, which were driven by historical and non-warming climate forcing. These ensembles comprise the "Database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF)". We compare these ensembles to large ensembles based on another climate model, as well as to observed data, to investigate the influence of anthropogenic activities on historical changes in the numbers of record-breaking events, including: the annual coldest daily minimum temperature (TNn), the annual warmest daily maximum temperature (TXx) and the annual most intense daily precipitation event (Rx1day). These two climate model ensembles indicatemore » that human activity has already had statistically significant impacts on the number of record-breaking extreme events worldwide mainly in the Northern Hemisphere land. Specifically, human activities have altered the likelihood that a wider area globally would suffer record-breaking TNn, TXx and Rx1day events than that observed over the 2001- 2010 period by a factor of at least 0.6, 5.4 and 1.3, respectively. However, we also find that the estimated spatial patterns and amplitudes of anthropogenic impacts on the probabilities of record-breaking events are sensitive to the climate model and/or natural-world boundary conditions used in the attribution studies.« less

The Influence of Extremely Large Solar Proton Events in a Changing Stratosphere. Stratospheric Influence of Solar Proton Events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jackman, Charles H.; Fleming, Eric L.; Vitt, Francis M.

1999-01-01

Two periods of extremely large solar proton events (SPEs) occurred in the past thirty years, which forced significant long-term polar stratospheric changes. The August 2-10, 1972 and October 19-27, 1989 SPEs happened in stratospheres that were quite different chemically. The stratospheric chlorine levels were relatively small in 1972 (approximately 1.2 ppbv) and were fairly substantial in 1989 at about (approximately 3 ppbv). Although these SPEs produced both HO(x) and NO(y) constituents in the mesosphere and stratosphere, only the NO(y) constituents had lifetimes long enough to affect ozone for several months to years past the events. Our recently improved two-dimensional chemistry and transport atmospheric model was used to compute the effects of these gigantic SPEs in a changing stratosphere. Significant upper stratospheric ozone depletions > 10% are computed to last for a few months past these SPEs. The long-lived SPE-produced NO(y) constituents were transported to lower levels during winter after these huge SPEs and caused impacts in the middle and lower stratosphere. During periods of high halogen loading these impacts resulted in interference with the chlorine and bromine loss cycles for ozone destruction. The chemical state of the atmosphere, including the stratospheric sulfate aerosol density, substantially affected the predicted stratospheric influence of these extremely large SPEs.

Rapid flood loss estimation for large scale floods in Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schröter, Kai; Kreibich, Heidi; Merz, Bruno

2013-04-01

Rapid evaluations of flood events are needed for efficient responses both in emergency management and financial appraisal. Beyond that, closely monitoring and documenting the formation and development of flood events and their impacts allows for an improved understanding and in depth analyses of the interplay between meteorological, hydrological, hydraulic and societal causes leading to flood damage. This contribution focuses on the development of a methodology for the rapid assessment of flood events. In the first place, the focus is on the prediction of damage to residential buildings caused by large scale floods in Germany. For this purpose an operational flood event analysis system is developed. This system has basic spatial thematic data available and supports data capturing about the current flood situation. This includes the retrieval of online gauge data and the integration of remote sensing data. Further, it provides functionalities to evaluate the current flood situation, to assess the hazard extent and intensity and to estimate the current flood impact using the flood loss estimation model FLEMOps+r. The operation of the flood event analysis system will be demonstrated for the past flood event from January 2011 with a focus on the Elbe/Saale region. On this grounds, further requirements and potential for improving the information basis as for instance by including hydrological and /or hydraulic model results as well as information from social sensors will be discussed.

Attributing Historical Changes in Probabilities of Record-Breaking Daily Temperature and Precipitation Extreme Events

DOE PAGES

Shiogama, Hideo; Imada, Yukiko; Mori, Masato; ...

2016-08-07

Here, we describe two unprecedented large (100-member), longterm (61-year) ensembles based on MRI-AGCM3.2, which were driven by historical and non-warming climate forcing. These ensembles comprise the "Database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF)". We compare these ensembles to large ensembles based on another climate model, as well as to observed data, to investigate the influence of anthropogenic activities on historical changes in the numbers of record-breaking events, including: the annual coldest daily minimum temperature (TNn), the annual warmest daily maximum temperature (TXx) and the annual most intense daily precipitation event (Rx1day). These two climate model ensembles indicatemore » that human activity has already had statistically significant impacts on the number of record-breaking extreme events worldwide mainly in the Northern Hemisphere land. Specifically, human activities have altered the likelihood that a wider area globally would suffer record-breaking TNn, TXx and Rx1day events than that observed over the 2001- 2010 period by a factor of at least 0.6, 5.4 and 1.3, respectively. However, we also find that the estimated spatial patterns and amplitudes of anthropogenic impacts on the probabilities of record-breaking events are sensitive to the climate model and/or natural-world boundary conditions used in the attribution studies.« less

Assessing the extent and impact of the masking effect of disproportionality analyses on two spontaneous reporting systems databases.

PubMed

Maignen, Francois; Hauben, Manfred; Hung, Eric; Van Holle, Lionel; Dogne, Jean-Michel

2014-02-01

Masking is a statistical issue by which signals are hidden by the presence of other medicines in the database. In the absence algorithm, the impact of the masking effect has not been fully investigated. Our study is aimed at assessing the extent and the impact of the masking effect on two large spontaneous reporting databases. Cross sectional study using a set of terms of importance for public health in two spontaneous reporting databases. The analyses were performed on EudraVigilance (EV) and the Pfizer spontaneous reporting database (PfDB). Using the masking ratio, we have identified and removed the products inducing the highest masking effect. Studying a total of almost 50 000 drug-event combinations masking had an impact on approximately 60% of drug-event combinations were masked by another product with a masking ratio >1 in EV and 84% in PfDB. The prevalence of important masking was quite rare (0.003% of the DECs) and mainly affected events rarely reported in EV. The products involved in the highest masking effects are products known to induce the reaction. The removal of the masking effect of the highest masking product has revealed 974 signals of disproportionate reporting in EV including true signals. The study shows that the original ranking provided by the quantitative methods included in our study is marginally affected by the removal of the masking product. Our study suggests that significant masking is rare in large spontaneous databases and mostly affects events rarely reported in EV. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Lahar hazard assessment in the southern drainage system of Cotopaxi volcano, Ecuador: Results from multiscale lahar simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pistolesi, Marco; Cioni, Raffaello; Rosi, Mauro; Aguilera, Eduardo

2014-02-01

The ice-capped Cotopaxi volcano is known worldwide for the large-scale, catastrophic lahars that have occurred in connection with historical explosive eruptions. The most recent large-scale lahar event occurred in 1877 when scoria flows partially melted ice and snow of the summit glacier, generating debris flows that severely impacted all the river valleys originating from the volcano. The 1877 lahars have been considered in the recent years as a maximum expected event to define the hazard associated to lahar generation at Cotopaxi. Conversely, recent field-based studies have shown that such debris flows have occurred several times during the last 800 years of activity at Cotopaxi, and that the scale of lahars has been variable, including events much larger than that of 1877. Despite a rapid retreat of the summit ice cap over the past century, in fact, there are no data clearly suggesting that future events will be smaller than those observed in the deposits of the last 800 years of activity. In addition, geological field data prove that the lahar triggering mechanism also has to be considered as a key input parameter and, under appropriate eruptive mechanisms, a hazard scenario of a lahar with a volume 3-times larger than the 1877 event is likely. In order to analyze the impact scenarios in the southern drainage system of the volcano, simulations of inundation areas were performed with a semi-empirical model (LAHARZ), using input parameters including variable water volume. Results indicate that a lahar 3-times larger than the 1877 event would invade much wider areas than those flooded by the 1877 lahars along the southern valley system, eventually impacting highly-urbanized areas such as the city of Latacunga.

Impacts of Precipitation Diurnal Timing on Ecosystem Carbon Exchanges in Grasslands: A Synthesis of AmeriFlux Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, X.; Xu, X.; Tweedie, C. E.

2015-12-01

Drylands have been found playing an important role regulating the seasonality of global atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Precipitation is a primary control of ecosystem carbon exchanges in drylands where a large proportion of the annual total rainfall arrives through a small number of episodic precipitation events. While a large number of studies use the concept of "precipitation pulses" to explore the effects of short-term precipitation events on dryland ecosystem function, few have specifically evaluated the importance of the diurnal timing of these events. The primary goal of this study was to determine how the diurnal timing of rainfall events impacts land-atmosphere net ecosystem CO2 exchanges (NEE) and ecosystem respiration in drylands. Our research leverages a substantial and existing long-term database (AmeriFlux) that describes NEE, Reco and meteorological conditions at 11 sites situated in different dryland ecosystems in South West America. All sites employ the eddy covariance technique to measure land-atmosphere the CO2 exchange rates between atmosphere and ecosystem. Data collected at these sites range from 4 to 10 years, totaling up to 73 site-years. We found that episodic precipitation events stimulate not only vegetation photosynthesis but also ecosystem respiration. Specifically, the morning precipitation events decrease photosynthesis function at daytime and increase ecosystem respiration at nighttime; the afternoon precipitation events do not stimulate ecosystem photosynthesis at daytime, while stimulate ecosystem respiration; the night precipitations suppress photosynthesis at daytime, and enhance ecosystem respiration at nighttime.

Osmium isotope evidence for a large Late Triassic impact event

PubMed Central

Sato, Honami; Onoue, Tetsuji; Nozaki, Tatsuo; Suzuki, Katsuhiko

2013-01-01

Anomalously high platinum group element concentrations have previously been reported for Upper Triassic deep-sea sediments, which are interpreted to be derived from an extraterrestrial impact event. Here we report the osmium (Os) isotope fingerprint of an extraterrestrial impact from Upper Triassic chert successions in Japan. Os isotope data exhibit a marked negative excursion from an initial Os isotope ratio (187Os/188Osi) of ∼0.477 to unradiogenic values of ∼0.126 in a platinum group element-enriched claystone layer, indicating the input of meteorite-derived Os into the sediments. The timing of the Os isotope excursion coincides with both elevated Os concentrations and low Re/Os ratios. The magnitude of this negative Os isotope excursion is comparable to those found at Cretaceous–Paleogene boundary sites. These geochemical lines of evidence demonstrate that a large impactor (3.3–7.8 km in diameter) produced a global decrease in seawater 187Os/188Os ratios in the Late Triassic. PMID:24036603

Data Assimilation of AIRS Water Vapor Profiles: Impact on Precipitation Forecasts for Atmospheric River Cases Affecting the Western of the United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blankenship, Clay; Zavodsky, Bradley; Jedlovec, Gary; Wick, Gary; Neiman, Paul

2013-01-01

Atmospheric rivers are transient, narrow regions in the atmosphere responsible for the transport of large amounts of water vapor. These phenomena can have a large impact on precipitation. In particular, they can be responsible for intense rain events on the western coast of North America during the winter season. This paper focuses on attempts to improve forecasts of heavy precipitation events in the Western US due to atmospheric rivers. Profiles of water vapor derived from from Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) observations are combined with GFS forecasts by a three-dimensional variational data assimilation in the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI). Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) forecasts initialized from the combined field are compared to forecasts initialized from the GFS forecast only for 3 test cases in the winter of 2011. Results will be presented showing the impact of the AIRS profile data on water vapor and temperature fields, and on the resultant precipitation forecasts.

Drought and Snow: Analysis of Drivers, Processes and Impacts of Streamflow Droughts in Snow-Dominated Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Loon, Anne; Laaha, Gregor; Van Lanen, Henny; Parajka, Juraj; Fleig, Anne; Ploum, Stefan

2016-04-01

Around the world, drought events with severe socio-economic impacts seem to have a link with winter snowpack. That is the case for the current California drought, but analysing historical archives and drought impact databases for the US and Europe we found many impacts that can be attributed to snowpack anomalies. Agriculture and electricity production (hydropower) were found to be the sectors that are most affected by drought related to snow. In this study, we investigated the processes underlying hydrological drought in snow-dominated regions. We found that drought drivers are different in different regions. In Norway, more than 90% of spring streamflow droughts were preceded by below-average winter precipitation, while both winter air temperature and spring weather were indifferent. In Austria, however, spring streamflow droughts could only be explained by a combination of factors. For most events, winter and spring air temperatures were above average (70% and 65% of events, respectively), and winter and spring precipitation was below average (75% and 80%). Because snow storage results from complex interactions between precipitation and temperature and these variables vary strongly with altitude, snow-related drought drivers have a large spatial variability. The weather input is subsequently modified by land properties. Multiple linear regression between drought severity variables and a large number of catchment characteristics for 44 catchments in Austria showed that storage influences both drought duration and deficit volume. The seasonal storage of water in snow and glaciers was found to be a statistically important variable explaining streamflow drought deficit. Our drought impact analysis in Europe also showed that 40% of the selected drought impacts was caused by a combination of snow-related and other drought types. For example, the combination of a winter drought with a preceding or subsequent summer drought was reported to have a large effect on reservoir levels and, consequently, on drinking water and electricity production. Snow storage therefore, is an important factor to consider in drought monitoring, prediction and management.

Drought and Snow: Analysis of Drivers, Processes and Impacts of Streamflow Droughts in Snow-Dominated Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Loon, A.; Laaha, G.; Van Lanen, H.; Parajka, J.; Fleig, A. K.; Ploum, S.

2015-12-01

Around the world, drought events with severe socio-economic impacts seem to have a link with winter snowpack. That is the case for the current California drought, but analysing historical archives and drought impact databases for the US and Europe we found many impacts that can be attributed to snowpack anomalies. Agriculture and electricity production (hydropower) were found to be the sectors that are most affected by drought related to snow. In this study, we investigated the processes underlying hydrological drought in snow-dominated regions. We found that drought drivers are different in different regions. In Norway, more than 90% of spring streamflow droughts were preceded by below-average winter precipitation, while both winter air temperature and spring weather were indifferent. In Austria, however, spring streamflow droughts could only be explained by a combination of factors. For most events, winter and spring air temperatures were above average (70% and 65% of events, respectively), and winter and spring precipitation was below average (75% and 80%). Because snow storage results from complex interactions between precipitation and temperature and these variables vary strongly with altitude, snow-related drought drivers have a large spatial variability. The weather input is subsequently modified by land properties. Multiple linear regression between drought severity variables and a large number of catchment characteristics for 44 catchments in Austria showed that storage influences both drought duration and deficit volume. The seasonal storage of water in snow and glaciers was found to be a statistically important variable explaining streamflow drought deficit. Our drought impact analysis in Europe also showed that 40% of the selected drought impacts was caused by a combination of snow-related and other drought types. For example, the combination of a winter drought with a preceding or subsequent summer drought was reported to have a large effect on reservoir levels and, consequently, on drinking water and electricity production. Snow storage therefore, is an important factor to consider in drought monitoring, prediction and management.

Permo-Carboniferous sedimentary basins related to the distribution of planetary cryptoblemes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Windolph, J.F.

1997-01-01

Massive/high velocity solar, galactic, and cosmic debris impacting the Earths surface may account for the enormous energy required for the formation of Permo-Carboniferous sedimentary basins and related mountain building orogenies. Analysis of satellite immagry, sea floor sonar, geophysical data, and geotectonic fabrics show a strong correlation throughout geologic time between sedimentary basin origin and planetary cryptoblemes. Cryptoblemes are subtile, multi-ringed, radial centric impact shock signatures covering the entire terrestrial surface and ocean floors, having a geometry and distribution strikingly similar to the surfaces of the lunar planetary bodies in the solar system. Investigations of Permo-Carboniferous basins show an intensely overprinted pattern of cryptoblemes coinciding with partial obliteration and elliptical compression of pre-existing basins and accompanying shock patterns. Large distorted cryptoblemes may incorporate thin skin deformation, localized sediment diagenesis, regional metamorphism, and juxtaposed exotic terrains. These data, related to basin morphogenic symmetry, suggest that large episodic impact events are the primary cause of tectonogenic features, geologic boundary formation and mass extinction episodes on the planet Earth. Plate tectonics may be only a slow moving, low energy secondary effect defined and set in motion by megacosmic accretion events. Permo-Carboniferous sediments of note are preserved or accumulated in relatively small rectangular to arcuate rift valleys and synclinal down warps, such as the Narraganset basin of Massachusetts, USA, and Paganzo basin in Argentina, S.A. These deposits and depocenters may originate from dynamic reinforcement/cancellation impact effects, as can be seen in the Basin Range of Nevada and Utah, USA. Large circular to oval sedimentary basins commonly include internal ring structures indicating post depositional subsidence and rebound adjustments with growth faulting, notable in the Illinois basin USA and Ordos basin in China. Recent impact events on the planet Jupiter, July 1994, lend increasing support towards an impact orogenic geologic paradigm on the planet Earth.

Impacts of extreme weather events and climate variability on carbon exchanges in an age-sequence of managed temperate pine forests from 2003 to 201

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arain, M. A.

2017-12-01

North American temperate forests are a critical component of the global carbon cycle and regional water resources. A large portion of these forests has traditionally been managed for timber production and other uses. The response of these forests, which are in different stages of development, to extreme weather events such as drought and heat stresses, climate variability and management regimes is not fully understood. In this study, eddy covariance flux measurements in an age sequence (77-, 42-, and 14-years old as of 2016) of white pine (Pinus strobus L.) plantation forests in southern Ontario, Canada are examined to determine the impact of heat and drought stresses and climate variability over a 14 year period (2003 to 2016). The mean annual net ecosystem productivity (NEP) values were 195 ± 87, 512 ±161 and 103 ± 103 g C m-2 year-1 in 77-, 42- and 14-year-old forests respectively, over the study period. The youngest forest became a net carbon sink in the fifth year of its growth. Air temperature was a dominant control on carbon fluxes and heat stress reduced photosynthesis much more as compared to ecosystem respiration in the growing season. A large decrease in annual NEP was observed during years experiencing heat waves. Drought stress had the strongest impact on the middle age forest which had the largest carbon sink and water demand. In contrast, young forest was more sensitive to heat stress, than drought. Severity of heat and drought stress impacts was highly dependent on the timing of these events. Simultaneous occurrence of heat and drought stress in the early growing season such as in 2012 and 2016 had a drastic negative impact on carbon balance in these forests due to plant-soil-atmosphere feedbacks. Future research should consider the timing of the extreme events, the stage of forest development and effects of extreme events on component fluxes. This research helps to assess the vulnerability of managed forests and their ecological and hydrological responses to climate change and extreme weather events.

Modeling High-Impact Weather and Climate: Lessons From a Tropical Cyclone Perspective

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Done, James; Holland, Greg; Bruyere, Cindy

2013-10-19

Although the societal impact of a weather event increases with the rarity of the event, our current ability to assess extreme events and their impacts is limited by not only rarity but also by current model fidelity and a lack of understanding of the underlying physical processes. This challenge is driving fresh approaches to assess high-impact weather and climate. Recent lessons learned in modeling high-impact weather and climate are presented using the case of tropical cyclones as an illustrative example. Through examples using the Nested Regional Climate Model to dynamically downscale large-scale climate data the need to treat bias inmore » the driving data is illustrated. Domain size, location, and resolution are also shown to be critical and should be guided by the need to: include relevant regional climate physical processes; resolve key impact parameters; and to accurately simulate the response to changes in external forcing. The notion of sufficient model resolution is introduced together with the added value in combining dynamical and statistical assessments to fill out the parent distribution of high-impact parameters. Finally, through the example of a tropical cyclone damage index, direct impact assessments are resented as powerful tools that distill complex datasets into concise statements on likely impact, and as highly effective communication devices.« less

weather@home 2: validation of an improved global-regional climate modelling system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guillod, Benoit P.; Jones, Richard G.; Bowery, Andy; Haustein, Karsten; Massey, Neil R.; Mitchell, Daniel M.; Otto, Friederike E. L.; Sparrow, Sarah N.; Uhe, Peter; Wallom, David C. H.; Wilson, Simon; Allen, Myles R.

2017-05-01

Extreme weather events can have large impacts on society and, in many regions, are expected to change in frequency and intensity with climate change. Owing to the relatively short observational record, climate models are useful tools as they allow for generation of a larger sample of extreme events, to attribute recent events to anthropogenic climate change, and to project changes in such events into the future. The modelling system known as weather@home, consisting of a global climate model (GCM) with a nested regional climate model (RCM) and driven by sea surface temperatures, allows one to generate a very large ensemble with the help of volunteer distributed computing. This is a key tool to understanding many aspects of extreme events. Here, a new version of the weather@home system (weather@home 2) with a higher-resolution RCM over Europe is documented and a broad validation of the climate is performed. The new model includes a more recent land-surface scheme in both GCM and RCM, where subgrid-scale land-surface heterogeneity is newly represented using tiles, and an increase in RCM resolution from 50 to 25 km. The GCM performs similarly to the previous version, with some improvements in the representation of mean climate. The European RCM temperature biases are overall reduced, in particular the warm bias over eastern Europe, but large biases remain. Precipitation is improved over the Alps in summer, with mixed changes in other regions and seasons. The model is shown to represent the main classes of regional extreme events reasonably well and shows a good sensitivity to its drivers. In particular, given the improvements in this version of the weather@home system, it is likely that more reliable statements can be made with regards to impact statements, especially at more localized scales.

Effects of Extreme Events on Arsenic Cycling in Salt Marshes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Northrup, Kristy; Capooci, Margaret; Seyfferth, Angelia L.

2018-03-01

Extreme events such as storm surges, intense precipitation, and supermoons cause anomalous and large fluctuations in water level in tidal salt marshes, which impacts the sediment biogeochemistry that dictates arsenic (As) cycling. In addition to changes in water level, which impacts soil redox potential, these extreme events may also change salinity due to freshwater inputs from precipitation or saltwater inputs due to surge. It is currently unknown how As mobility in tidal salt marshes will be impacted by extreme events, as fluctuations in salinity and redox potential may act synergistically to mobilize As. To investigate impacts of extreme events on As cycling in tidal salt marshes, we conducted a combined laboratory and field investigation. We monitored pore water and soil samples before, during, and after two extreme events: a supermoon lunar eclipse followed by a storm surge and precipitation induced by Hurricane Joaquin in fall 2015 at the St. Jones Reserve in Dover, Delaware, a representative tidal salt marsh in the Mid-Atlantic United States. We also conducted soil incubations of marsh sediments in batch and in flow-through experiments in which redox potential and/or salinity were manipulated. Field investigations showed that pore water As was inversely proportional to redox potential. During the extreme events, a distinct pulse of As was observed in the pore water with maximum salinity. Combined field and laboratory investigations revealed that this As pulse is likely due to rapid changes in salinity. These results have implications for As mobility in the face of extreme weather variability.

Extreme weather events in southern Germany - Climatological risk and development of a large-scale identification procedure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matthies, A.; Leckebusch, G. C.; Rohlfing, G.; Ulbrich, U.

2009-04-01

Extreme weather events such as thunderstorms, hail and heavy rain or snowfall can pose a threat to human life and to considerable tangible assets. Yet there is a lack of knowledge about present day climatological risk and its economic effects, and its changes due to rising greenhouse gas concentrations. Therefore, parts of economy particularly sensitve to extreme weather events such as insurance companies and airports require regional risk-analyses, early warning and prediction systems to cope with such events. Such an attempt is made for southern Germany, in close cooperation with stakeholders. Comparing ERA40 and station data with impact records of Munich Re and Munich Airport, the 90th percentile was found to be a suitable threshold for extreme impact relevant precipitation events. Different methods for the classification of causing synoptic situations have been tested on ERA40 reanalyses. An objective scheme for the classification of Lamb's circulation weather types (CWT's) has proved to be most suitable for correct classification of the large-scale flow conditions. Certain CWT's have been turned out to be prone to heavy precipitation or on the other side to have a very low risk of such events. Other large-scale parameters are tested in connection with CWT's to find out a combination that has the highest skill to identify extreme precipitation events in climate model data (ECHAM5 and CLM). For example vorticity advection in 700 hPa shows good results, but assumes knowledge of regional orographic particularities. Therefore ongoing work is focused on additional testing of parameters that indicate deviations of a basic state of the atmosphere like the Eady Growth Rate or the newly developed Dynamic State Index. Evaluation results will be used to estimate the skill of the regional climate model CLM concerning the simulation of frequency and intensity of the extreme weather events. Data of the A1B scenario (2000-2050) will be examined for a possible climate change signal.

Giant impacts on giant planets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Pater, Imke

2017-08-01

The 2009 impact and recent superbolides on Jupiter caught the world by surprise and cast doubt on impactor flux estimates for the outer solar system. Enhanced amateur planetary imaging techniques yield both high spatial resolution (enabling the 2009 impact debris field detection) and rapid frame rates (enabling the 2010/2012 impact flash detections and lightcurve measurements).We propose a ToO program to image future impacts on Jupiter and Saturn. To remove the possibility of impact cloud non-detections, the program will be triggered only if an existing impact debris field is seen, an object on a collision course with Jupiter or Saturn is discovered, or an impact light curve is measured with an estimated total energy large enough to generate an impact cloud in a giant planet atmosphere (10^19 J).HST provides the only way to image these events in the ultraviolet, providing information on aerosol altitudes and on smaller particles that are less visible to ground-based infrared observations. High-resolution imaging with proper timing (not achievable from the ground) is required to measure precisely both the velocity fields of impact sites and the optical spectrum of impact debris. HST observations of past impacts on Jupiter have also served both as cornerstones of science investigations at other wavelengths and as vehicles for effective public outreach.Large outer solar system impacts are governed by the same physics as in the terrestrial events that dominate the impact threat to humans. Studying the behavior of impactors of various sizes and compositions, as they enter the atmosphere at varying angles and speeds, will better quantify terrestrial impact hazards.

Study on turbulence characteristics and sensitivity of quadrant analysis to threshold level in Lake Taihu.

PubMed

Weng, Shenglin; Li, Yiping; Wei, Jin; Du, Wei; Gao, Xiaomeng; Wang, Wencai; Wang, Jianwei; Acharya, Kumud; Luo, Liancong

2018-05-01

The identification of coherent structures is very important in investigating the sediment transport mechanism and controlling the eutrophication in shallow lakes. This study analyzed the turbulence characteristics and the sensitivity of quadrant analysis to threshold level. Simultaneous in situ measurements of velocities and suspended sediment concentration (SSC) were conducted in Lake Taihu with acoustic Doppler velocimeter (ADV) and optical backscatter sensor (OBS) instruments. The results show that the increase in hole size makes the difference between dominant and non-dominant events more distinct. Wind velocity determines the frequency of occurrence of sweep and ejection events, which provide dominant contributions to the Reynolds stress. The increase of wind velocity enlarges the magnitude of coherent events but has little impact on the events frequency with the same hole size. The events occurring within short periods provide large contributions to the momentum flux. Transportation and diffusion of sediment are in control of the intermittent coherent events to a large extent.

The meteorite impact-induced tsunami hazard.

PubMed

Wünnemann, K; Weiss, R

2015-10-28

When a cosmic object strikes the Earth, it most probably falls into an ocean. Depending on the impact energy and the depth of the ocean, a large amount of water is displaced, forming a temporary crater in the water column. Large tsunami-like waves originate from the collapse of the cavity in the water and the ejecta splash. Because of the far-reaching destructive consequences of such waves, an oceanic impact has been suggested to be more severe than a similar-sized impact on land; in other words, oceanic impacts may punch over their weight. This review paper summarizes the process of impact-induced wave generation and subsequent propagation, whether the wave characteristic differs from tsunamis generated by other classical mechanisms, and what methods have been applied to quantify the consequences of an oceanic impact. Finally, the impact-induced tsunami hazard will be evaluated by means of the Eltanin impact event. © 2015 The Author(s).

Textural variations and impact history of the Millbillillie eucrite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yamaguchi, Akira; Takeda, Hiroshi; Bogard, Donald D.; Garrison, Daniel

1994-01-01

We have investigated 10 new specimens of the Millbillillie eucrite to study its textures and mineral compositions by electron probe microanalyser and scanning electron microscope. Although originally described as having fine-grained texture, the new specimens show diversity of texture. The compositions (Mg/Fe ratios) of the host pigeonites and augite lamellae are homogeneous, respectively, in spite of the textural variation. In addition to their chemical homogeneity, pyroxenes in coarse and fine-grained clasts are partly inverted to orthopyroxene. Chemical zoning of plagioclase during crystal growth is preserved. This eucrite includes areas of granulitic breccias and impact melts. Large scale textures show a subparallel layering suggesting incomplete mixing and deposition of impact melt and lithic fragments. An Ar-39-Ar-40 age determination for a coarse-grained clast indicates a strong degassing event at 3.55 +/- 0.02 Ga. We conclude that Millbillillie is among the most equilibriated eucrites produced by thermal annealing after impact brecciation. According to the classificcation of impact breccias, Millbillillie can be classified as a mixture of granulitic breccias and impact melts. The last significant thermal event is characterized by network-like glassy veins that run through clasts and matrices. Consideration of textual observations and requirements for Ar-degassing suggests that the Ar-39-Ar-40 age could in principle date either the earlier brecciation and annealing event or the event which produced the veins.

Coincidence in Time of the Imbrium Basin Impact and Apollo 15 KREEP Volcanic Flows: The Case for Impact-Induced Melting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ryder, Graham

1994-01-01

On the Earth there is no firm evidence that impacts can induce volcanic activity. However, the Moon does provide a very likely example of volcanism induced by an immense impact: the Imbrium basin-forming event was immediately succeeded by a crustal partial melting event that released basalt flows characterized by K, rare-earth elements (REE), P, and other trace elements (KREEP) over a wide area creating the Apennine Bench Formation. Impact total melting is inconsistent with the chemistry and petrography of these Apollo 15 KREEP basalts, which are quite unlike the impact melts recognized at Taurus-Littrow as the products of the Serenitatis impact. The Imbrium impact and the KREEP volcanic events are indistinguishable in radiometric age, and thus the volcanism occurred less than about 20 Ma later than the impact (less than about 0.5% of lunar history). The sample record indicates that such KREEP volcanism had not occurred in the region prior to that time, and demonstrates that it never occurred again. Such coincidence in time implies a genetic relationship between the two events, and impact-induced partial melting or release appears to be the only feasible process. Nonetheless, the characteristics of the Apollo 15 KREEP basalts suggest large-degree crustal melting that is not easy to reconcile with the inability of lunar pressure release alone to induce partial melting unless the source was already almost at its melting point. The earliest history of the surface of the Earth, at a time of greater internal heat production and basin-forming impacts, could have been greatly influenced by impact-induced melting.

Fire as a galvanizing and fragmenting influence on communities: the case of the Rodeo-Chediski fire

Treesearch

Matthew S. Carroll; Patricia J. Cohn; David N. Seesholtz; Lorie L. Higgins

2005-01-01

Large wildfires that burn through the "forest-residential intermix" are complex events with a variety of social impacts. This study looks at three northern Arizona community clusters directly affected by the 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire. Our analysis suggests that the fire event led to both the emergence of cohesion and conflict in the study area. Community...

Probing failure susceptibilities of earthquake faults using small-quake tidal correlations.

PubMed

Brinkman, Braden A W; LeBlanc, Michael; Ben-Zion, Yehuda; Uhl, Jonathan T; Dahmen, Karin A

2015-01-27

Mitigating the devastating economic and humanitarian impact of large earthquakes requires signals for forecasting seismic events. Daily tide stresses were previously thought to be insufficient for use as such a signal. Recently, however, they have been found to correlate significantly with small earthquakes, just before large earthquakes occur. Here we present a simple earthquake model to investigate whether correlations between daily tidal stresses and small earthquakes provide information about the likelihood of impending large earthquakes. The model predicts that intervals of significant correlations between small earthquakes and ongoing low-amplitude periodic stresses indicate increased fault susceptibility to large earthquake generation. The results agree with the recent observations of large earthquakes preceded by time periods of significant correlations between smaller events and daily tide stresses. We anticipate that incorporating experimentally determined parameters and fault-specific details into the model may provide new tools for extracting improved probabilities of impending large earthquakes.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mills, Evan; Jones, Richard B.

Large yet infrequent disruptions of electrical power can impact tens of millions of people in a single event, triggering significant economic damages, portions of which are insured. Small and frequent events are also significant in the aggregate. This article explores the role that insurance claims data can play in better defining the broader economic impacts of grid disruptions in the U.S. context. We developed four case studies, using previously unpublished data for specific actual grid disruptions. The cases include the 1977 New York City blackout, the 2003 Northeast blackout, multi-year national annual lightning-related electrical damage and multi-year national line-disturbance events.more » Insured losses represent between 3 and 64 per cent of total loss costs across the case studies. Here, the household sector emerges as a larger locus of costs than indicated in previous studies, and short-lived events emerge as important sources of loss costs.« less

An insurance perspective on U.S. electric grid disruption costs

DOE PAGES

Mills, Evan; Jones, Richard B.

2016-10-12

Large yet infrequent disruptions of electrical power can impact tens of millions of people in a single event, triggering significant economic damages, portions of which are insured. Small and frequent events are also significant in the aggregate. This article explores the role that insurance claims data can play in better defining the broader economic impacts of grid disruptions in the U.S. context. We developed four case studies, using previously unpublished data for specific actual grid disruptions. The cases include the 1977 New York City blackout, the 2003 Northeast blackout, multi-year national annual lightning-related electrical damage and multi-year national line-disturbance events.more » Insured losses represent between 3 and 64 per cent of total loss costs across the case studies. Here, the household sector emerges as a larger locus of costs than indicated in previous studies, and short-lived events emerge as important sources of loss costs.« less

Were Ocean Impacts an Important Mechanism to Deliver Meteoritic Organic Matter to the Early Earth? Some Inferences from Eltanin

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kyte, Frank T.; Gersonde, Rainer; Kuhn. Gerhard

2002-01-01

Several workers have addressed the potential for extraterrestrial delivery of volatles, including water and complex organic compounds, to the early Earth. For example, Chyba and Sagan (1992) argued that since impacts would destroy organic matter, most extraterrestrial organics must be delivered in the fine-fractions of interplanetary dust. More recent computer simulations (Pierazzo and Chyba, 1999), however, have shown that substantial amounts of amino acids may survive the impacts of large (km-sized) comets and that this may exceed the amounts derived from IDPs or Miller-Urey synthesis in the atmosphere. Once an ocean developed on the early Earth, impacts of small ,asteroids and comets into deep-ocean basins were potentially common and may have been the most likely events to deliver large amounts of organics. The deposits of the late Pliocene impact of the Eltanin asteroid into the Bellingshausen Sea provide the only record of a deep-ocean (approx. 5 km) impact that can be used to constrain models of these events. This impact was first discovered in 1981 as an Ir anomaly in sediment cores collected by the USNS Eltanin in 1965 (Kyte et al., 1981). In 1995, Polarstem expedition ANT XII/4 made the first geological survey of the suspected impact region. Three sediment cores sampled around the San Martin seamounts (approx. 57.5S, 91 W) contained well-preserved impact deposits that include disturbed ocean sediments and meteoritic impact ejecta (Gersonde et al., 1997). The latter is composed of shock- melted asteroidal materials and unmelted meteorites. In 2001, the FS Polarstem returned to the impact area during expedition ANT XVIII/5a. At least 16 cores were recovered that contain ejecta deposits. These cores and geophysical data from the expedition can be used to map the effects of the impact over a large region of the ocean floor.

Evaluation of the impact of storm event inputs on levels of gross primary production and respiration in a drinking water reservoir

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samal, N. R.; Pierson, D. C.; Staehr, P. A.; Pradhanang, S. M.; Smith, D. G.

2013-12-01

Episodic inputs of dissolved and particulate material during storm events can have important effects on lake and reservoir ecosystem function and also impact reservoir drinking water quality. We evaluate the impacts of storm events using vertical profiles of temperature, dissolved oxygen, turbidity, conductivity and chlorophyll automatically collected at 6 hour intervals in Ashokan Reservoir, which is a part of the New York City drinking water supply. Storm driven inputs to the reservoir periodically result in large input of suspended sediments that result in reservoir turbidity levels exceeding 25 NTU, and substantial reductions in the euphotic depth. Dissolved materials associated with these same storms would be expected to stimulate bacterial production. This study involves the use of a conceptual model to calculate depth specific estimates of gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (R) using three years of data that included 777 events that increased reservoir turbidity levels to over 25 NTU. Using data from before, during and after storm events, we examine how the balance between GPP and R is influenced by storm related increases in turbidity and dissolved organic matter, which would in turn influence light attenuation and bacterial production. Key words: metabolism, primary production, GPP, respiration, euphotic depth, storm event, reservoir

Climate Change and Hydrological Extreme Events - Risks and Perspectives for Water Management in Bavaria and Québec

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ludwig, R.

2017-12-01

There is as yet no confirmed knowledge whether and how climate change contributes to the magnitude and frequency of hydrological extreme events and how regional water management could adapt to the corresponding risks. The ClimEx project (2015-2019) investigates the effects of climate change on the meteorological and hydrological extreme events and their implications for water management in Bavaria and Québec. High Performance Computing is employed to enable the complex simulations in a hydro-climatological model processing chain, resulting in a unique high-resolution and transient (1950-2100) dataset of climatological and meteorological forcing and hydrological response: (1) The climate module has developed a large ensemble of high resolution data (12km) of the CRCM5 RCM for Central Europe and North-Eastern North America, downscaled from 50 members of the CanESM2 GCM. The dataset is complemented by all available data from the Euro-CORDEX project to account for the assessment of both natural climate variability and climate change. The large ensemble with several thousand model years provides the potential to catch rare extreme events and thus improves the process understanding of extreme events with return periods of 1000+ years. (2) The hydrology module comprises process-based and spatially explicit model setups (e.g. WaSiM) for all major catchments in Bavaria and Southern Québec in high temporal (3h) and spatial (500m) resolution. The simulations form the basis for in depth analysis of hydrological extreme events based on the inputs from the large climate model dataset. The specific data situation enables to establish a new method for `virtual perfect prediction', which assesses climate change impacts on flood risk and water resources management by identifying patterns in the data which reveal preferential triggers of hydrological extreme events. The presentation will highlight first results from the analysis of the large scale ClimEx model ensemble, showing the current and future ratio of natural variability and climate change impacts on meteorological extreme events. Selected data from the ensemble is used to drive a hydrological model experiment to illustrate the capacity to better determine the recurrence periods of hydrological extreme events under conditions of climate change.

Release of Mercury Mine Tailings from Mine Impacted Watersheds by Extreme Events Resulting from Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rytuba, J. J.

2015-12-01

An increase in intensity and frequency of extreme events resulting from climate change is expected to result in extreme precipitation events on both regional and local scales. Extreme precipitation events have the potential to mobilize large volumes of mercury (Hg) mine tailings in watersheds where tailings reside in the floodplain downstream from historic Hg mines. The California Hg mineral belt produced one third of the worlds Hg from over 100 mines from the 1850's to 1972. In the absence of environmental regulations, tailings were disposed of into streams adjacent to the mines in order to have them transported from the mine site during storm events. Thus most of the tailings no longer reside at the mine site. Addition of tailings to the streams resulted in stream aggradation, increased over-bank flow, and deposition of tailings in the floodplain for up to 25 kms downstream from the mines. After cessation of mining, the decrease in tailings entering the streams resulted in degradation, incision of the streams into the floodplain, and inability of the streams to access the floodplain. Thus Hg tailings have remained stored in the floodplain since cessation of mining. Hg phases in these tailings consist of cinnabar, metacinnabar and montroydite based on EXAFS analysis. Size analysis indicates that Hg phases are fine grained, less than 1 um. The last regional scale extreme precipitation events to effect the entire area of the California Hg mineral belt were the ARkStorm events of 1861-1862 that occurred prior to large scale Hg mining. Extreme regional ARkStorm precipitation events as well as local summer storms, such as the July 2006 flood in the Clear Creek Hg mining district, are expected to increase in frequency and have the potential to remobilize the large volume of tailings stored in floodplain deposits. Although Hg mine remediation has decreased Hg release from mine sites in a period of benign climate, no remediation efforts have addressed the large source of Hg residing in floodplain deposits. This Hg source in a period of climate change poses a significant environmental risk to aquatic systems downstream from Hg mine-impacted watersheds. An extreme ARkStorm event is estimated to potentially remobilize an amount of Hg equivalent to that released in the past during the peak period of unregulated Hg mining in California.

Hydrological Retrospective of floods and droughts: Case study in the Amazon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wongchuig Correa, Sly; Cauduro Dias de Paiva, Rodrigo; Carlo Espinoza Villar, Jhan; Collischonn, Walter

2017-04-01

Recent studies have reported an increase in intensity and frequency of hydrological extreme events in many regions of the Amazon basin over last decades, these events such as seasonal floods and droughts have originated a significant impact in human and natural systems. Recently, methodologies such as climatic reanalysis are being developed in order to create a coherent register of climatic systems, thus taking this notion, this research efforts to produce a methodology called Hydrological Retrospective (HR), that essentially simulate large rainfall datasets over hydrological models in order to develop a record over past hydrology, enabling the analysis of past floods and droughts. We developed our methodology on the Amazon basin, thus we used eight large precipitation datasets (more than 30 years) through a large scale hydrological and hydrodynamic model (MGB-IPH), after that HR products were validated against several in situ discharge gauges dispersed throughout Amazon basin, given focus in maximum and minimum events. For better HR results according performance metrics, we performed a forecast skill of HR to detect floods and droughts considering in-situ observations. Furthermore, statistical temporal series trend was performed for intensity of seasonal floods and drought in the whole Amazon basin. Results indicate that better HR represented well most past extreme events registered by in-situ observed data and also showed coherent with many events cited by literature, thus we consider viable to use some large precipitation datasets as climatic reanalysis mainly based on land surface component and datasets based in merged products for represent past regional hydrology and seasonal hydrological extreme events. On the other hand, an increase trend of intensity was realized for maximum annual discharges (related to floods) in north-western regions and for minimum annual discharges (related to drought) in central-south regions of the Amazon basin, these features were previously detected by other researches. In the whole basin, we estimated an upward trend of maximum annual discharges at Amazon River. In order to estimate better future hydrological behavior and their impacts on the society, HR could be used as a methodology to understand past extreme events occurrence in many places considering the global coverage of rainfall datasets.

Characteristics and Future Changes of Great Mississippi Flood Events in a Global Coupled Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Wiel, K.; Kapnick, S. B.; Vecchi, G.; Smith, J. A.

2017-12-01

The Mississippi-Missouri river catchment houses millions of people and much of the U.S. national agricultural production. Severe flooding events can therefore have large negative societal, natural and economic impacts. GFDL FLOR, a global coupled climate model (atmosphere, ocean, land, sea ice with integrated river routing module) is used to investigate the characteristics of great Mississippi floods with an average return period of 100 years. Model experiments under pre-industrial greenhouse gas forcing were conducted for 3400 years, such that the most extreme flooding events were explicitly modeled and the land and/or atmospheric causes could be investigated. It is shown that melt of snow pack and frozen sub-surface water in the Missouri and Upper Mississippi basins prime the river system, subsequently sensitizing it to above average precipitation in the Ohio and Tennessee basins. The months preceding the greatest flooding events are above average wet, leading to moist sub-surface conditions. Anomalous melt depends on the availability of frozen water in the catchment, therefore anomalous amounts of sub-surface frozen water and anomalous large snow pack in winter (Nov-Feb) make the river system susceptible for these great flooding events in spring (Feb-Apr). An additional experiment of 1200 years under transient greenhouse gas forcing (RCP4.5, 5 members) was done to investigate potential future change in flood risk. Based on a peak-over-threshold method, it is found that the number of great flooding events decreases in a warmer future. This decrease coincides with decreasing occurrence of large melt events, but is despite increasing numbers of large precipitation events. Though the model results indicate a decreasing risk for the greatest flooding events, the predictability of events might decrease in a warmer future given the changing characters of melt and precipitation.

Re-Evaluating the Geological Evidence for Late Holocene Marine Incursion Events along the Guerrero Seismic Gap on the Pacific Coast of Mexico

PubMed Central

Bianchette, Thomas A.

2016-01-01

Despite the large number of tsunamis that impact Mexico’s Pacific coast, stratigraphic studies focusing on geological impacts are scanty, making it difficult to assess the long-term risks for this vulnerable region. Surface samples and six cores were taken from Laguna Mitla near Acapulco to examine sedimentological and geochemical evidence for marine incursion events. Sediment cores collected from behind the beach barrier are dominated by intercalated layers of peat and inorganic sediments, mostly silt and clay, with little or no sand. Sand- and shell-rich clastic layers with high levels of sulfur, calcium, and strontium only occur adjacent to the relict beach ridge remnants near the center of the lagoon. With the exception of one thin fine sand layer, the absence of sand in the near-shore cores and the predominance of the terrigenous element titanium in the inorganic layers, evidently eroded from the surrounding hillslopes, suggests that these large-grained intervals do not represent episodic marine incursions, but rather were likely formed by the erosion and redeposition of older marine deposits derived from the beach ridge remnants when water levels were high. These results do not support the occurrence of a large tsunami event at Laguna Mitla during the Late Holocene. PMID:27571270

Re-Evaluating the Geological Evidence for Late Holocene Marine Incursion Events along the Guerrero Seismic Gap on the Pacific Coast of Mexico.

PubMed

Bianchette, Thomas A; McCloskey, Terrence A; Liu, Kam-Biu

2016-01-01

Despite the large number of tsunamis that impact Mexico's Pacific coast, stratigraphic studies focusing on geological impacts are scanty, making it difficult to assess the long-term risks for this vulnerable region. Surface samples and six cores were taken from Laguna Mitla near Acapulco to examine sedimentological and geochemical evidence for marine incursion events. Sediment cores collected from behind the beach barrier are dominated by intercalated layers of peat and inorganic sediments, mostly silt and clay, with little or no sand. Sand- and shell-rich clastic layers with high levels of sulfur, calcium, and strontium only occur adjacent to the relict beach ridge remnants near the center of the lagoon. With the exception of one thin fine sand layer, the absence of sand in the near-shore cores and the predominance of the terrigenous element titanium in the inorganic layers, evidently eroded from the surrounding hillslopes, suggests that these large-grained intervals do not represent episodic marine incursions, but rather were likely formed by the erosion and redeposition of older marine deposits derived from the beach ridge remnants when water levels were high. These results do not support the occurrence of a large tsunami event at Laguna Mitla during the Late Holocene.

Preface: Impacts of extreme climate events and disturbances on carbon dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Xiao, Jingfeng; Liu, Shuguang; Stoy, Paul C.

2016-01-01

The impacts of extreme climate events and disturbances (ECE&D) on the carbon cycle have received growing attention in recent years. This special issue showcases a collection of recent advances in understanding the impacts of ECE&D on carbon cycling. Notable advances include quantifying how harvesting activities impact forest structure, carbon pool dynamics, and recovery processes; observed drastic increases of the concentrations of dissolved organic carbon and dissolved methane in thermokarst lakes in western Siberia during a summer warming event; disentangling the roles of herbivores and fire on forest carbon dioxide flux; direct and indirect impacts of fire on the global carbon balance; and improved atmospheric inversion of regional carbon sources and sinks by incorporating disturbances. Combined, studies herein indicate several major research needs. First, disturbances and extreme events can interact with one another, and it is important to understand their overall impacts and also disentangle their effects on the carbon cycle. Second, current ecosystem models are not skillful enough to correctly simulate the underlying processes and impacts of ECE&D (e.g., tree mortality and carbon consequences). Third, benchmark data characterizing the timing, location, type, and magnitude of disturbances must be systematically created to improve our ability to quantify carbon dynamics over large areas. Finally, improving the representation of ECE&D in regional climate/earth system models and accounting for the resulting feedbacks to climate are essential for understanding the interactions between climate and ecosystem dynamics.

Evaluating sub-seasonal skill in probabilistic forecasts of Atmospheric Rivers and associated extreme events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Subramanian, A. C.; Lavers, D.; Matsueda, M.; Shukla, S.; Cayan, D. R.; Ralph, M.

2017-12-01

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) - elongated plumes of intense moisture transport - are a primary source of hydrological extremes, water resources and impactful weather along the West Coast of North America and Europe. There is strong demand in the water management, societal infrastructure and humanitarian sectors for reliable sub-seasonal forecasts, particularly of extreme events, such as floods and droughts so that actions to mitigate disastrous impacts can be taken with sufficient lead-time. Many recent studies have shown that ARs in the Pacific and the Atlantic are modulated by large-scale modes of climate variability. Leveraging the improved understanding of how these large-scale climate modes modulate the ARs in these two basins, we use the state-of-the-art multi-model forecast systems such as the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and the Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) database to help inform and assess the probabilistic prediction of ARs and related extreme weather events over the North American and European West Coasts. We will present results from evaluating probabilistic forecasts of extreme precipitation and AR activity at the sub-seasonal scale. In particular, results from the comparison of two winters (2015-16 and 2016-17) will be shown, winters which defied canonical El Niño teleconnection patterns over North America and Europe. We further extend this study to analyze probabilistic forecast skill of AR events in these two basins and the variability in forecast skill during certain regimes of large-scale climate modes.

Proactive modeling of water quality impacts of extreme precipitation events in a drinking water reservoir.

PubMed

Jeznach, Lillian C; Hagemann, Mark; Park, Mi-Hyun; Tobiason, John E

2017-10-01

Extreme precipitation events are of concern to managers of drinking water sources because these occurrences can affect both water supply quantity and quality. However, little is known about how these low probability events impact organic matter and nutrient loads to surface water sources and how these loads may impact raw water quality. This study describes a method for evaluating the sensitivity of a water body of interest from watershed input simulations under extreme precipitation events. An example application of the method is illustrated using the Wachusett Reservoir, an oligo-mesotrophic surface water reservoir in central Massachusetts and a major drinking water supply to metropolitan Boston. Extreme precipitation event simulations during the spring and summer resulted in total organic carbon, UV-254 (a surrogate measurement for reactive organic matter), and total algae concentrations at the drinking water intake that exceeded recorded maximums. Nutrient concentrations after storm events were less likely to exceed recorded historical maximums. For this particular reservoir, increasing inter-reservoir transfers of water with lower organic matter content after a large precipitation event has been shown in practice and in model simulations to decrease organic matter levels at the drinking water intake, therefore decreasing treatment associated oxidant demand, energy for UV disinfection, and the potential for formation of disinfection byproducts. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Asteroids and Archaean crustal evolution: Tests of possible genetic links between major mantle/crust melting events and clustered extraterrestrial bombardments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Glikson, A. Y.

1992-01-01

Since the oldest intact terrestrial rocks of ca. 4.0 Ga and oldest zircon xenocrysts of ca. 4.3 Ga measured to date overlap with the lunar late heavy bombardment, the early Precambrian record requires close reexamination vis a vis the effects of megaimpacts. The identification of microtektite-bearing horizons containing spinals of chondritic chemistry and Ir anomalies in 3.5-3.4-Ga greenstone belts provides the first direct evidence for large-scale Archaean impacts. The Archaean crustal record contains evidence for several major greenstone-granite-forming episodes where deep upwelling and adiabatic fusion of the mantle was accompanied by contemporaneous crustal anatexis. Isotopic age studies suggest evidence for principal age clusters about 3.5, 3.0, and 2.7 (+/- 0.8) Ga, relics of a ca. 3.8-Ga event, and several less well defined episodes. These peak events were accompanied and followed by protracted thermal fluctuations in intracrustal high-grade metamorphic zones. Interpretations of these events in terms of internal dynamics of the Earth are difficult to reconcile with the thermal behavior of silicate rheologies in a continuously convecting mantle regime. A triggering of these episodes by mantle rebound response to intermittent extraterrestrial asteroid impacts is supported by (1) identification of major Archaean impacts from microtektite and distal ejecta horizons marked by Ir anomalies; (2) geochemical and experimental evidence for mantle upwelling, possibly from levels as deep as the transition zone; and (3) catastrophic adiabatic melting required to generate peridotitic komatites. Episodic differentiation/accretion growth of sial consequent on these events is capable of resolving the volume problem that arises from comparisons between modern continental crust and the estimated sial produced by continuous two-stage mantle melting processes. The volume problem is exacerbated by projected high accretion rates under Archaean geotherms. It is suggested that impact shock effects have been largely obscured by (1) outpouring of voluminous basic/ultrabasic lavas, inundating shock-deformed crust and extending beyond the perimeters of impact excavated basins; (2) gravity subsidence and downfaulting of terrestrial maria, accounting for the burial and anatexis of subgreenstone basement; and (3) extensive shearing and recrystallization at elevated temperatures of impact structure, breccias, and mineral deformation features beneath impact-excavated basins, relics of which may be retained in structural windows in high-grade metamorphic terranes.

Assessing variability in the impacts of heat on health outcomes in New York City over time, season, and heat-wave duration.

PubMed

Sheridan, Scott C; Lin, Shao

2014-12-01

While the impacts of heat upon mortality and morbidity have been frequently studied, few studies have examined the relationship between heat, morbidity, and mortality across the same events. This research assesses the relationship between heat events and morbidity and mortality in New York City for the period 1991-2004. Heat events are defined based on oppressive weather types as determined by the Spatial Synoptic Classification. Morbidity data include hospitalizations for heat-related, respiratory, and cardiovascular causes; mortality data include these subsets as well as all-cause totals. Distributed-lag models assess the relationship between heat and health outcome for a cumulative 15-day period following exposure. To further refine analysis, subset analyses assess the differences between early- and late-season events, shorter and longer events, and earlier and later years. The strongest heat-health relationships occur with all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and heat-related hospital admissions. The impacts of heat are greater during longer heat events and during the middle of summer, when increased mortality is still statistically significant after accounting for mortality displacement. Early-season heat waves have increases in mortality that appear to be largely short-term displacement. The impacts of heat on mortality have decreased over time. Heat-related hospital admissions have increased during this time, especially during the earlier days of heat events. Given the trends observed, it suggests that a greater awareness of heat hazards may have led to increased short-term hospitalizations with a commensurate decrease in mortality.

Three-dimensional simulation of a rock slide impact into water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weaver, R.; Gisler, G.; Gittings, M.; Ranta, D.

2007-12-01

The steep-sided fjords of western Norway have experienced numerous rock slide events that sometimes produced devastating tsunamis. The 1934 slide in the Tafjord region, when some 3 million cubic meters of rock plunged into the water, resulted in waves tens of meters high that destroyed two villages and killed about 40 people. A similarly dangerous situation exists now in Sunnylvsfjord, where a major expanding crack in the fjord wall at Aknes threatens to release from 5 to 40 million cubic meters of rock into the water. Such an event would devastate a large region, including the Geiranger Fjord, a UN World Heritage Site that is extremely popular with tourists. The Norwegian Government's Aknes-Tafjord project is responsible for studying and monitoring the potential slide area and for providing adequate warning to protect lives and property. In order to better understand tsunami generation from such events, we have performed 3-dimensional fully compressible hydrodynamical simulations of the impact of a large number of boulders from a steep slope into a deep body of water. We use the Los Alamos/SAIC adaptive-mesh-refined SAGE code, previously used to model tsunamis from underwater explosions, asteroid impacts, and both subaqueous and subaerial landslide sources. We find the interaction of boulders and water to be extremely turbulent and dissipative. It differs markedly from simulations of large-block impacts in similar geometry. No more than about 15% of the potential energy of the boulders ends up in the water wave. The rest of the energy goes into heating the boulders (and presumably fragmenting them, though that physics is not included) into generating winds, heating air and water, and generating turbulence. In the near field, the waves produced by the impact can be quite high -- tens of meters -- and have the potential to devastate coastlines at substantial distances from the site along a narrow fjord system.

Accurately Assessing the Risk of Schizophrenia Conferred by Rare Copy-Number Variation Affecting Genes with Brain Function

PubMed Central

Raychaudhuri, Soumya; Korn, Joshua M.; McCarroll, Steven A.; Altshuler, David; Sklar, Pamela; Purcell, Shaun; Daly, Mark J.

2010-01-01

Investigators have linked rare copy number variation (CNVs) to neuropsychiatric diseases, such as schizophrenia. One hypothesis is that CNV events cause disease by affecting genes with specific brain functions. Under these circumstances, we expect that CNV events in cases should impact brain-function genes more frequently than those events in controls. Previous publications have applied “pathway” analyses to genes within neuropsychiatric case CNVs to show enrichment for brain-functions. While such analyses have been suggestive, they often have not rigorously compared the rates of CNVs impacting genes with brain function in cases to controls, and therefore do not address important confounders such as the large size of brain genes and overall differences in rates and sizes of CNVs. To demonstrate the potential impact of confounders, we genotyped rare CNV events in 2,415 unaffected controls with Affymetrix 6.0; we then applied standard pathway analyses using four sets of brain-function genes and observed an apparently highly significant enrichment for each set. The enrichment is simply driven by the large size of brain-function genes. Instead, we propose a case-control statistical test, cnv-enrichment-test, to compare the rate of CNVs impacting specific gene sets in cases versus controls. With simulations, we demonstrate that cnv-enrichment-test is robust to case-control differences in CNV size, CNV rate, and systematic differences in gene size. Finally, we apply cnv-enrichment-test to rare CNV events published by the International Schizophrenia Consortium (ISC). This approach reveals nominal evidence of case-association in neuronal-activity and the learning gene sets, but not the other two examined gene sets. The neuronal-activity genes have been associated in a separate set of schizophrenia cases and controls; however, testing in independent samples is necessary to definitively confirm this association. Our method is implemented in the PLINK software package. PMID:20838587

Dynamic impacts of a catastrophic production event: the foot-and-mouth disease case.

PubMed

Cordier, Alexandre; Gohin, Jean; Krebs, Stephane; Rault, Arnaud

2013-03-01

In foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) free countries, the occurrence of an FMD outbreak is a rare event with potentially large economic losses. We explore the dynamic effects of an FMD outbreak on market variables and economic surplus taking into account the largely neglected issue of farm bankruptcy. Simulations are performed on a stylized agricultural economy, which is a net exporter before the outbreak. We find complex dynamic market effects when the farm credit market suffers from information imperfections leading to farm closure. Welfare effects are also dramatically altered. Domestic consumers may lose in the long run from an FMD outbreak because domestic supply contracts. On the other hand, farmers able to resist this event may ultimately gain. Our analysis also shows that these effects are not monotone, making any efficient policy response to this catastrophic event quite challenging. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

The Impact of the Developmental Timing of Trauma Exposure on PTSD Symptoms and Psychosocial Functioning among Older Adults

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ogle, Christin M.; Rubin, David C.; Siegler, Ilene C.

2013-01-01

The present study examined the impact of the developmental timing of trauma exposure on posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms and psychosocial functioning in a large sample of community-dwelling older adults (N = 1,995). Specifically, we investigated whether the negative consequences of exposure to traumatic events were greater for traumas…

A Comparison of Quasi-Static Indentation Testing to Low Velocity Impact Testing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nettles, Alan T.; Douglas, Michael J.

2001-01-01

The need for a static test method for modeling low-velocity foreign object impact events to composites would prove to be very beneficial to researchers since much more data can be obtained from a static test than from an impact test. In order to examine if this is feasible, a series of static indentation and low velocity impact tests were carried out and compared. Square specimens of many sizes and thickness were utilized to cover the array of types of low velocity impact events. Laminates with a n/4 stacking sequence were employed since this is by the most common type of engineering laminate. Three distinct flexural rigidities under two different boundary conditions were tested in order to obtain damage due to large deflections, contact stresses and both to examine if the static indentation-impact comparisons are valid under the spectrum of damage modes that can be experienced. Comparisons between static indentation and low velocity impact tests were based on the maximum applied transverse load. The dependent parameters examined included dent depth, back surface crack length, delamination area and to a limited extent, load-deflection behavior. Results showed that no distinct differences could be seen between the static indentation tests and the low velocity impact tests, indicating that static indentation can be used to represent a low velocity impact event.

A Comparison of Quasi-Static Indentation to Low-Velocity Impact

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nettles, A. T.; Douglas, M. J.

2000-01-01

A static test method for modeling low-velocity foreign object impact events to composites would prove to be very beneficial to researchers since much more data can be obtained from a static test than from an impact test. In order to examine if this is feasible, a series of static indentation and low-velocity impact tests were carried out and compared. Square specimens of many sizes and thicknesses were utilized to cover the array of types of low velocity impact events. Laminates with a pi/4 stacking sequence were employed since this is by far the most common type of engineering laminate. Three distinct flexural rigidities -under two different boundary conditions were tested in order to obtain damage ranging from that due to large deflection to contact stresses and levels in-between to examine if the static indentation-impact comparisons are valid under the spectrum of damage modes that can be experienced. Comparisons between static indentation and low-velocity impact tests were based on the maximum applied transverse load. The dependent parameters examined included dent depth, back surface crack length, delamination area, and to a limited extent, load-deflection behavior. Results showed that no distinct differences could be seen between the static indentation tests and the low-velocity impact tests, indicating that static indentation can be used to represent a low-velocity impact event.

Stochastic integrated assessment of climate tipping points indicates the need for strict climate policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lontzek, Thomas S.; Cai, Yongyang; Judd, Kenneth L.; Lenton, Timothy M.

2015-05-01

Perhaps the most `dangerous’ aspect of future climate change is the possibility that human activities will push parts of the climate system past tipping points, leading to irreversible impacts. The likelihood of such large-scale singular events is expected to increase with global warming, but is fundamentally uncertain. A key question is how should the uncertainty surrounding tipping events affect climate policy? We address this using a stochastic integrated assessment model, based on the widely used deterministic DICE model. The temperature-dependent likelihood of tipping is calibrated using expert opinions, which we find to be internally consistent. The irreversible impacts of tipping events are assumed to accumulate steadily over time (rather than instantaneously), consistent with scientific understanding. Even with conservative assumptions about the rate and impacts of a stochastic tipping event, today’s optimal carbon tax is increased by ~50%. For a plausibly rapid, high-impact tipping event, today’s optimal carbon tax is increased by >200%. The additional carbon tax to delay climate tipping grows at only about half the rate of the baseline carbon tax. This implies that the effective discount rate for the costs of stochastic climate tipping is much lower than the discount rate for deterministic climate damages. Our results support recent suggestions that the costs of carbon emission used to inform policy are being underestimated, and that uncertain future climate damages should be discounted at a low rate.

Impact craters: their importance in geologic record and implications for natural resource development

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Levie, D. Jr.

1986-05-01

Impacting bodies of sufficient size traveling at hypervelocities carry tremendous potential energy. This relatively infrequent process results in the instantaneous formation of unique structures that are characterized by extensive fracturing and brecciation of the target material. Impacts onto continental shield areas can create rich ore deposits, such as the Sudbury mining district in Canada. Impacts into the sedimentary column can instantaneously create hydrocarbon reservoirs out of initially nonporous rocks, such as at Red Wing Creek and Viewfield in the Williston basin. Associated reservoirs are usually limited to a highly deformed central uplift in larger craters, or to the fractured rimmore » facies in smaller craters. The presence of reservoirs and trapping mechanisms is largely dependent, however, upon the preservation state of the crater in the subsurface. A catastrophic extraterrestrial event (a large asteroid impact) has also been suggested as the cause for the extinction of the dinosaurs, but the latest theory proposes a companion star with a 26 m.y. periodicity as the cause for numerous lifeform extinctions over a similar time interval. Regardless of their magnitude and distribution over the earth, it is clear that catastrophic extraterrestrial events have been responsible for altering the geologic column locally, regionally, and quite possibly on a global scale.« less

Operational Evaluation of the Rapid Viability PCR Method for ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Journal Article This research work has a significant impact on the use of the RV-PCR method to analyze post-decontamination environmental samples during an anthrax event. The method has shown 98% agreement with the traditional culture based method. With such a success, this method, upon validation, will significantly increase the laboratory throughput/capacity to analyze a large number of anthrax event samples in a relatively short time.

Improved Strength and Damage Modeling of Geologic Materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stewart, Sarah; Senft, Laurel

2007-06-01

Collisions and impact cratering events are important processes in the evolution of planetary bodies. The time and length scales of planetary collisions, however, are inaccessible in the laboratory and require the use of shock physics codes. We present the results from a new rheological model for geological materials implemented in the CTH code [1]. The `ROCK' model includes pressure, temperature, and damage effects on strength, as well as acoustic fluidization during impact crater collapse. We demonstrate that the model accurately reproduces final crater shapes, tensile cracking, and damaged zones from laboratory to planetary scales. The strength model requires basic material properties; hence, the input parameters may be benchmarked to laboratory results and extended to planetary collision events. We show the effects of varying material strength parameters, which are dependent on both scale and strain rate, and discuss choosing appropriate parameters for laboratory and planetary situations. The results are a significant improvement in models of continuum rock deformation during large scale impact events. [1] Senft, L. E., Stewart, S. T. Modeling Impact Cratering in Layered Surfaces, J. Geophys. Res., submitted.

Planetary Scale Impacts and Consequences for the Mars Hemispheric Dichotomy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marinova, M. M.; Aharonson, O.; Asphaug, E.

2007-12-01

Planetary-scale impacts are events in which the resultant impact basin is a significant fraction of the planet's circumference. The curvature of the planet is expected to be important in the impact process, especially as it relates to the fate of downrange ejecta in off-axis events. Planetary-scale impacts are abundant in the Solar System, especially early in its evolution. A possible candidate planetary-scale impact basin is the Martian hemispheric dichotomy, expressed as a difference in surface elevation, crustal thickness, and surface age between the northern lowlands and the southern highlands. We investigate the characteristics of planetary-scale impacts, and in particular the effects of a mega impact on Mars. We use a 3 dimensional self-gravitational Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) model to simulate the impacts, implementing an olivine equation of state derived for the Tillotson formulation, and use this to establish the initial pressure and internal energy profile of the planet. The parameter space of impactor energy, impactor size, and impact velocity are explored for Mars hemispheric impacts. We find that for a given impact energy, head-on large but slow impacts produce more melt and cover more of the planet with melt than small, fast, and oblique events. Head-on impacts produce crustal blow-off and a melt pool at the antipode. Oblique impacts do not cover much of the planet with melt, but create sizable basins. Various degrees of crustal thickening are apparent around the crater over a length of ~1000 km; this crustal thickening could relax over geological time. Fast impacts eject material with escape velocity many times their own mass. In all cases, less than 10% of the impactor's mass is placed in orbit. For oblique events, a significant fraction of the angular momentum in the system is carried away by escaping material, limiting the efficiency of angular momentum transfer to the planet.

Large Meteoroid Impact on the Moon 17 March 2013

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Suggs, Robert M.; Cooke, William; Kingery, Aaron; Kring, David; Moser, Danielle; Suggs, Ronnie J.

2013-01-01

NASA's routine monitoring of lunar impact flashes has recorded nearly 300 impacts since 2006. On 17 March 2013 the brightest event to date was observed in two 0.35m telescopes at the Marshall Space Flight Center. With a peak red magnitude brighter than 4.3 and an impact flash visible for over 1 second, the impact kinetic energy was equivalent to nearly 5 tons of TNT. A possible association with a meteor shower observed in the Earth's atmosphere will be described. Corresponding crater dimensions and observability of the impact crater by Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter will also be discussed.

Tabular comparisons of the Flynn Creek impact crater, United States, Steinheim impact crater, Germany and Snowball explosion crater, Canada

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roddy, D. J.

1977-01-01

A tabular outline of comparative data is presented for 340 basic dimensional, morphological, and structural parameters and related aspects for three craters of the flat-floored, central uplift type, two of which are natural terrestrial impact craters and one is a large-scale experimental explosion crater. The three craters are part of a general class, in terms of their morphology and structural deformation that is represented on each of the terrestrial planets including the moon. One of the considered craters, the Flynn Creek Crater, was formed by a hypervelocity impact event approximately 360 m.y. ago in what is now north central Tennessee. The impacting body appears to have been a carbonaceous chondrite or a cometary mass. The second crater, the Steinheim Crater, was formed by an impact event approximately 14.7 m.y. ago in what is now southwestern Germany. The Snowball Crater was formed by the detonation of a 500-ton TNT hemisphere on flat-lying, unconsolidated alluvium in Alberta, Canada.

High Energy Wide Area Blunt Impact on Composite Aircraft Structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeFrancisci, Gabriela K.

The largest source of damage to commercial aircraft is caused by accidental contact with ground service equipment (GSE). The cylindrical bumper typically found on GSE distributes the impact load over a large contact area, possibly spanning multiple internal structural elements (frame bays) of a stiffened-skin fuselage. This type of impact can lead to damage that is widespread and difficult to detect visually. To address this problem, monolithic composite panels of various size and complexity have been modeled and tested quasi-statically and dynamically. The experimental observations have established that detectability is dependent on the impact location and immediately-adjacent internal structure of the panel, as well as the impactor geometry and total deformation of the panel. A methodology to model and predict damage caused by wide area blunt impact events was established, which was then applied to more general cases that were not tested in order to better understand the nature of this type of impact event and how it relates to the final damage state and visual detectability.

Ecosystem transformation by emerging infectious disease: loss of large tanoak from California forests

Treesearch

Richard C. Cobb; Joao A.N. Filipe; Ross K. Meentemeyer; Christopher A. Gilligan; David M. Rizzo

2012-01-01

1. Few pathogens are the sole or primary cause of species extinctions, but forest disease has caused spectacular declines in North American overstorey trees and restructured forest ecosystems at large spatial scales over the past 100 years. These events threaten biodiversity associated with impacted host trees and other resources valued by human societies even when...

Cosmogenic nuclide production within the atmosphere and long period comets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Overholt, Andrew C.

The Earth is constantly bombarded by cosmic rays. These high energy particles collide with target nuclei, producing a shower of secondary particles. These secondaries contribute significantly to the radiation background at sea level and in the atmosphere, as well as producing rare cosmogenic nuclides. This contribution is variable over long time scales as astrophysical events change the cosmic ray flux incident on the Earth. Our work re-examines a previously proposed climate effect of increased cosmic ray flux due to galactic location. Although our work does not support this effect, cosmic ray secondaries remain a threat to terrestrial biota. We calculate the cosmogenic neutron flux within the atmosphere as a function of primary spectrum. This work is pivotal in determining the radiation dose due to any arbitrary astrophysical event where the primary spectrum is known. Additionally, this work can be used to determine the cosmogenic nuclide production from such an event. These neutrons are the fundamental source of cosmogenic nuclides within our atmosphere and extraterrestrial matter. We explore the idea that excursions in 14C and 10Be abundances in the atmosphere may arise from direct deposition by long-period comet impacts, and those in 26Al from any bolide. We find that the amount of nuclide mass on large long-period comets entering the Earth's atmosphere may be sufficient for creating anomalies in the records of 14C and 10Be from past impacts. In particular, the estimated mass of the proposed Younger Dryas comet is consistent with its having deposited sufficient isotopes to account for recorded nuclide increases at that time. The 26Al/10Be ratio is much larger in extraterrestrial objects than in the atmosphere, and so, we note that measuring this ratio in ice cores is a suitable further test for the Younger Dryas impact hypothesis. This portion of our work may be used to find possible impact events in the geologic record as well as determination of a large bolide impact rate.

Strategies and Exemplars for Public Outreach Events: Planning, Implementation, Evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cobb, W. H.; Buxner, S.; Shipp, S. S.; Shebby, S.

2015-12-01

IntroductionEach year the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) sponsors a variety of public outreach events to share information with educators, students, and the general public. These events are designed to increase interest in and awareness of the mission and goals of NASA. Planning and implementation best practices gleaned from the NASA SMD Education's review of large-scale events, "Best Practices in Outreach Events" will be shared. Outcomes from an event, i C Ceres, celebrating the Dawn mission's arrival at dwarf planet Ceres that utilized these strategies will be shared. Best practices included can be pertinent for all event organizers and evaluators regardless of event size. BackgroundThe literature review focused on identifying evaluations of large-scale public outreach events—and, within these evaluations, identifying best practices. The following criteria for identifying journal articles and reports to potentially include: Public, science-related events open to adults and children. Events with more than 1,000 attendees. Events that occurred during the last 5 years. Evaluations that included information on data collected from visitors and/or volunteers. Evaluations that specified the type of data collected, methodology, and associated results. Planning and Implementation Best PracticesThe literature review revealed key considerations for planning and of large-scale events implementing events. A summary of related best practices is presented below. 1) Advertise the event 2) Use and advertise access to scientists 3) Recruit scientists using these findings 4) Ensure that the event is group and particularly child friendly 5) Target specific event outcomes Best Practices Informing Real-world Planning, Implementation and EvaluationDawn mission's collaborative design of a series of events, i C Ceres, including in-person, interactive events geared to families and live presentations will be shared. Outcomes and lessons learned will be imparted rising from these events and their evaluation. There will be a focus on the family event, in particular the evidence that scientist participation was a particular driver for the event's impact and success.

Penicillin: the medicine with the greatest impact on therapeutic outcomes.

PubMed

Kardos, Nelson; Demain, Arnold L

2011-11-01

The principal point of this paper is that the discovery of penicillin and the development of the supporting technologies in microbiology and chemical engineering leading to its commercial scale production represent it as the medicine with the greatest impact on therapeutic outcomes. Our nomination of penicillin for the top therapeutic molecule rests on two lines of evidence concerning the impact of this event: (1) the magnitude of the therapeutic outcomes resulting from the clinical application of penicillin and the subsequent widespread use of antibiotics and (2) the technologies developed for production of penicillin, including both microbial strain selection and improvement plus chemical engineering methods responsible for successful submerged fermentation production. These became the basis for production of all subsequent antibiotics in use today. These same technologies became the model for the development and production of new types of bioproducts (i.e., anticancer agents, monoclonal antibodies, and industrial enzymes). The clinical impact of penicillin was large and immediate. By ushering in the widespread clinical use of antibiotics, penicillin was responsible for enabling the control of many infectious diseases that had previously burdened mankind, with subsequent impact on global population demographics. Moreover, the large cumulative public effect of the many new antibiotics and new bioproducts that were developed and commercialized on the basis of the science and technology after penicillin demonstrates that penicillin had the greatest therapeutic impact event of all times. © Springer-Verlag 2011

Supporting communities in reducing their vulnerability against impacts of short-term heavy precipitation events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoy, Andreas; Hübener, Heike

2017-04-01

Potential flood areas are known and charted for most large and many small rivers in Europe. However, often no appropriate knowledge exists about the impacts of short-term intense precipitation (of mostly convective origin, occurring predominantly during the warm season) on small tributaries or on areas aside from waterways. Communities are often not sensitised and prepared for the massive surface runoff and subsequent flooding following massive downpours. Risks are particularly large in valley locations, where the water is canalised and immense flash floods may occur. Yet, each event has a different impact. Crucial factors determining these impacts are soil type, pre-event soil moisture, surface sealing, vegetation structure, slope gradients and many others. This contribution presents a framework to empower local communities - located within the central-German county of Hesse - to reduce their vulnerability against short-term intense precipitation events. The project consists of a data analysis part, in which information on observed heavy precipitation, (water related) disaster management actions of the local fire brigades, erosion risk maps, and further aspects are mapped to an integrated county-wide "heavy precipitation reference map" (german: "Starkregenhinweiskarte"). Another part of the project deals with the usability issue of heavy precipitation data in hydrological engineering. The goal of this part is to improve the use of the best available data and methods to assess - in very high resolution - areas at risk of flooding in case of such an event. This project part will culminate in exemplary "heavy precipitation hazard risk maps" (german: "Starkregengefahrenkarte") for two local communities in Hesse. In this presentation we will focus on ways how to communicate highly complex subject-specific scientific results of different sources to public decision makers in mostly small to medium-sized communities. Concrete challenges are to efficiently a) increase the awareness of the existing vulnerability to heavy precipitation events within the municipalities, b) convey the benefits of precaution measures, c) point out existing local deficiencies in disaster control and precaution measures and d) demonstrate opportunities to resolve them.

ARC-2009-ACD09-0220-088

NASA Image and Video Library

2009-10-09

LCROSS Impact Night: Public invited to all night event are watching the mission unfold from a large screen on Shenandoah Parade Grounds at NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field Calif. while listening to the music of Kenji Williams on violin.

ARC-2009-ACD09-0220-086

NASA Image and Video Library

2009-10-09

LCROSS Impact Night: Public invited to all night event are watching the mission unfold from a large screen on Shenandoah Parade Grounds at NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field Calif. while listening to the music of Kenji Williams on violin.

Event-by-event gluon multiplicity, energy density, and eccentricities in ultrarelativistic heavy-ion collisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schenke, Björn; Tribedy, Prithwish; Venugopalan, Raju

2012-09-01

The event-by-event multiplicity distribution, the energy densities and energy density weighted eccentricity moments ɛn (up to n=6) at early times in heavy-ion collisions at both the BNL Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC) (s=200GeV) and the CERN Large Hardron Collider (LHC) (s=2.76TeV) are computed in the IP-Glasma model. This framework combines the impact parameter dependent saturation model (IP-Sat) for nucleon parton distributions (constrained by HERA deeply inelastic scattering data) with an event-by-event classical Yang-Mills description of early-time gluon fields in heavy-ion collisions. The model produces multiplicity distributions that are convolutions of negative binomial distributions without further assumptions or parameters. In the limit of large dense systems, the n-particle gluon distribution predicted by the Glasma-flux tube model is demonstrated to be nonperturbatively robust. In the general case, the effect of additional geometrical fluctuations is quantified. The eccentricity moments are compared to the MC-KLN model; a noteworthy feature is that fluctuation dominated odd moments are consistently larger than in the MC-KLN model.

Assessing the Utility of a Satellite-Based Flood Inundation and Socio-Economic Impact Tool for the Lower Mekong River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahamed, A.; Bolten, J. D.

2016-12-01

Flood disaster events in Southeast Asia result in significant loss of life and economic damage. Remote sensing information systems designed to monitor floods and assess their severity can help governments and international agencies formulate an effective response before and during flood events, and ultimately alleviate impacts to population, infrastructure, and agriculture. Recent examples of destructive flood events in the Lower Mekong River Basin occurred in 2000, 2011, and 2013. Floods can be particularly costly in the developing countries of Southeast Asia where large portions of the population live on or near the floodplain (Jonkman, 2005; Kirsch et al., 2012; Long and Trong, 2001; Stromberg. 2007). Regional studies (Knox, 1993; Mirza, 2002; Schiermeier, 2011; Västilä et al, 2010) and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) projections suggest that precipitation extremes and flood frequency are increasing. Thus, improved systems to rapidly monitor flooding in vulnerable areas are needed. This study determines surface water extent for current and historic flood events by using stacks of historic multispectral Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) 250-meter imagery and the spectral Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) signatures of permanent water bodies (MOD44W). Supporting software tools automatically assess flood impacts to population and infrastructure to provide a rapid first set of impact numbers generated hours after the onset of an event. The near real-time component uses twice daily imagery acquired at 3-hour latency, and performs image compositing routines to minimize cloud cover. Case studies for historic flood events are presented. Results suggest that near real-time remote sensing-based observation and impact assessment systems can serve as effective regional decision support tools for governments, international agencies, and disaster responders.

The role of impact cratering in planetary environmental change and implications for the search for life in the solar system (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osinski, G. R.

2013-12-01

Beginning in the late 18th century with the work of James Hutton, uniformitarianism emerged as a central tenet of the natural sciences and remained so well into the 20th century. Central to the idea of uniformitarianism is the concept of gradualism whereby processes throughout time occur at the same, or similar rates. In the 20th century, the idea that asteroids and comets have struck, and continue to strike, planetary bodies throughout geological time, has revolutionized our understanding of Solar System history and evolution. Indeed, it is now widely recognized that impact cratering is one of the most important and fundamental geological process in the Solar System. It is also now apparent that impact events have profoundly affected the origin and evolution of Earth, its environment, and the habitability of our planet. The extreme physical conditions (e.g., 10's of thousands of K and 100's of GPa), the concentrated nature of the energy release at a single point on a planetary surface, and the virtually instantaneous nature of the impact process sets apart impact events from all other geological processes. It should not be surprising then that such a rapid geological process can cause rapid environmental change. The destructive geological, environmental, and biological effects of meteorite impact events are well studied and well known. This is largely due to the discovery of the ~180 km diameter Chicxulub impact structure, Mexico, and its link to the mass extinction event that marks the end of the Cretaceous Period 65 Myr. ago. While the main driver for this mass extinction event remains debated, a long list of possible causes of environmental change have been proposed, including: heat from the impact explosion, tsunamis, earthquakes, global forest fires, dust injection in the upper atmosphere, production of vast quantities of N2O, and release of CO2 and sulfur species from the target rocks. Any one of these effects could potentially cause the annihilation of a particular planetary habitat. But the news is not all bad. Impact events can redistribute viable planetary habitats instantly - and regionally to globally depending on the size of the impact event. They can bring material from depths of many km in the form of ejecta deposits and central uplifts in so-called complex impact structures. Importantly, much of the material excavated and/or redistributed by impact events is shocked to such low pressures and temperatures that habitats, bioessential elements (e.g., C, N, O), and even organisms can remain intact. In recent years, it has also become apparent that impact events can also create new planetary habitats where none previously existed, including hydrothermal systems, endolithic habitats in shocked rocks and impact glasses, and impact crater lakes. Finally, impact events can also generate conditions conducive for the origin of life (e.g., clays, which form catalysts for organic reactions, and hot spring environments). Thus, far from being the agents of destruction that they were once thought to be, impact events can also be viewed as a favourable agent of rapid environmental change. This may have important implications for our understanding of the origin and evolution of early life on Earth, and possibly other planets such as Mars.

Large rock-slope failures impacting on lakes - Reconstruction of events and deciphering mobility processes at Lake Oeschinen (CH) and Lake Eibsee (D)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knapp, Sibylle; Anselmetti, Flavio; Gilli, Adrian; Krautblatter, Michael; Hajdas, Irka

2017-04-01

Among single event landslide disasters large rock-slope failures account for 75% of disasters with more than 1000 casualties. The precise determination of recurrence rates and failure volumes combined with an improved understanding of mobility processes are essential to better constrain runout models and establish early warning systems. Here we present the data sets from the two alpine regions Lake Oeschinen (CH) and Lake Eibsee (D) to show how lake studies can help to decipher the multistage character of rock-slope failures and to improve the understanding of the processes related to rock avalanche runout dynamics. We focus on such that impacted on a (paleo-) lake for two main reasons. First, the lake background sedimentation acts as a natural chronometer, which enables the stratigraphic positioning of events and helps to reconstruct the event history. This way it becomes possible to (i) decipher the multistage character of the failure of a certain rock slope and maybe detect progressive failure, (ii) determine the recurrence rates of failures at that certain rock slope, and (iii) consider energies based on estimated failure volumes, fall heights and deposition patterns. Hence, the interactions between a rock-slope failure, the water reservoir and the altered rock-slope are better understood. Second, picturing a rock avalanche running through and beyond a lake, we assume the entrainment of water and slurry to be crucial for the subsequent flow dynamics. The entrainment consumes a large share of the total energy, and orchestrates the mobility leading to fluidization, a much higher flow velocity and a longer runout-path length than expected. At Lake Oeschinen (CH) we used lake sediment cores and reflection seismic profiles in order to reconstruct the 2.5 kyrs spanning rock-slope failure history including 10 events, six of which detached from the same mountain flank, and correlated them with (pre-) historical data. The Lake Eibsee records provide insights into the impact of the rock-slope failure at Mount Zugspitze on the presumed Eibsee paleolake 3.7 kyrs ago. We have been working on seismic profiles and sediment cores from the lake as well as on geoelectrical profiles and terrestrial sediments in the runout path aiming at the reconstruction of mobility processes related to the impact and leading to an extraordinarily long runout.

Life-span retrieval of public events: Reminiscence bump for high-impact events, recency for others.

PubMed

Tekcan, Ali I; Boduroglu, Aysecan; Mutlutürk, Aysu; Aktan Erciyes, Aslı

2017-10-01

Although substantial evidence exists showing a reliable reminiscence bump for personal events, data regarding retrieval distributions for public events have been equivocal. The primary aim of the present study was to address life-span retrieval distributions of different types of public events in comparison to personal events, and to test whether the existing accounts of the bump can explain the distribution of public events. We asked a large national sample to report the most important, happiest, and saddest personal events and the most important, happiest, saddest, most proud, most fearful, and most shameful public events. We found a robust bump corresponding to the third decade of life for the happiest and the most important positive but not for the saddest and most important negative personal events. For the most important public events, a bump emerged only for the two most frequently mentioned events. Distributions of public events cued with emotions were marked by recency. These results point to potential differences in retrieval of important personal and public events. While the life-script framework well accounts for the findings regarding important personal events, a chronologically retroactive search seem to guide retrieval of public events. Reminiscence bump observed for the two public events suggest that age-at-event affects recall of public events to the degree that the events are high-impact ones that dominate nation's collective memory. Results provide further evidence that the bump is not unitary and points to importance of event type and memory elicitation method with regard to competing explanations of the phenomenon.

Big Jump of Record Warm Global Mean Surface Temperature in 2014-2016 Related to Unusually Large Oceanic Heat Releases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Jianjun; Overpeck, Jonathan; Peyser, Cheryl; Stouffer, Ronald

2018-01-01

A 0.24°C jump of record warm global mean surface temperature (GMST) over the past three consecutive record-breaking years (2014-2016) was highly unusual and largely a consequence of an El Niño that released unusually large amounts of ocean heat from the subsurface layer of the northwestern tropical Pacific. This heat had built up since the 1990s mainly due to greenhouse-gas (GHG) forcing and possible remote oceanic effects. Model simulations and projections suggest that the fundamental cause, and robust predictor of large record-breaking events of GMST in the 21st century, is GHG forcing rather than internal climate variability alone. Such events will increase in frequency, magnitude, and duration, as well as impact, in the future unless GHG forcing is reduced.

The role of Natural Flood Management in managing floods in large scale basins during extreme events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quinn, Paul; Owen, Gareth; ODonnell, Greg; Nicholson, Alex; Hetherington, David

2016-04-01

There is a strong evidence database showing the negative impacts of land use intensification and soil degradation in NW European river basins on hydrological response and to flood impact downstream. However, the ability to target zones of high runoff production and the extent to which we can manage flood risk using nature-based flood management solution are less known. A move to planting more trees and having less intense farmed landscapes is part of natural flood management (NFM) solutions and these methods suggest that flood risk can be managed in alternative and more holistic ways. So what local NFM management methods should be used, where in large scale basin should they be deployed and how does flow is propagate to any point downstream? Generally, how much intervention is needed and will it compromise food production systems? If we are observing record levels of rainfall and flow, for example during Storm Desmond in Dec 2015 in the North West of England, what other flood management options are really needed to complement our traditional defences in large basins for the future? In this paper we will show examples of NFM interventions in the UK that have impacted at local scale sites. We will demonstrate the impact of interventions at local, sub-catchment (meso-scale) and finally at the large scale. These tools include observations, process based models and more generalised Flood Impact Models. Issues of synchronisation and the design level of protection will be debated. By reworking observed rainfall and discharge (runoff) for observed extreme events in the River Eden and River Tyne, during Storm Desmond, we will show how much flood protection is needed in large scale basins. The research will thus pose a number of key questions as to how floods may have to be managed in large scale basins in the future. We will seek to support a method of catchment systems engineering that holds water back across the whole landscape as a major opportunity to management water in large scale basins in the future. The broader benefits of engineering landscapes to hold water for pollution control, sediment loss and drought minimisation will also be shown.

Measuring vulnerability to disaster displacement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brink, Susan A.; Khazai, Bijan; Power, Christopher; Wenzel, Friedemann

2015-04-01

Large scale disasters can cause devastating impacts in terms of population displacement. Between 2008 and 2013, on average 27 million people were displaced annually by disasters (Yonetani 2014). After large events such as hurricane Katrina or the Port-au-Prince earthquake, images of inadequate public shelter and concerns about large scale and often inequitable migration have been broadcast around the world. Population displacement can often be one of the most devastating and visible impacts of a natural disaster. Despite the importance of population displacement in disaster events, measures to understand the socio-economic vulnerability of a community often use broad metrics to estimate the total socio-economic risk of an event rather than focusing on the specific impacts that a community faces in a disaster. Population displacement is complex and multi-causal with the physical impact of a disaster interacting with vulnerability arising from the response, environmental issues (e.g., weather), cultural concerns (e.g., expectations of adequate shelter), and many individual factors (e.g., mobility, risk perception). In addition to the complexity of the causes, population displacement is difficult to measure because of the wide variety of different terms and definitions and its multi-dimensional nature. When we speak of severe population displacement, we may refer to a large number of displaced people, an extended length of displacement or associated difficulties such as poor shelter quality, risk of violence and crime in shelter communities, discrimination in aid, a lack of access to employment or other difficulties that can be associated with large scale population displacement. We have completed a thorough review of the literature on disaster population displacement. Research has been conducted on historic events to understand the types of negative impacts associated with population displacement and also the vulnerability of different groups to these impacts. We aggregate these ideas into a framework of disaster displacement vulnerability that distinguishes between three main aspects of disaster displacement. Disaster displacement can be considered in terms of the number of displaced people and the length of that displacement. However, the literature emphasizes that the severity of disaster displacement can not be measured completely in quantitative terms. Thus, we include a measure representing people who are trapped and unable to leave their homes due to mobility, resources or for other reasons. Finally the third main aspect considers the difficulties that are associated with displacement and reflects the difference between the experiences of those who are displaced into safe and supportive environments as compared to those whose only alternate shelter is dangerous and inadequate for their needs. Finally, we apply the framework to demonstrate a methodology to estimate vulnerability to disaster displacement. Using data from the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Social and Economic Vulnerability sub-National Database, we generate an index to measure the vulnerability of Japanese prefectures to the dimensions of displacement included in the framework. References Yonitani, M. (2014). Global Estimates 2014: People displaced by disasters. http://www.internal-displacement.org/publications/2014/global-estimates-2014-people-displaced-by-disasters/

Extracting lunar dust parameters from image charge signals produced by the Lunar Dust Experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stanley, J.; Kempf, S.; Horanyi, M.; Szalay, J.

2015-12-01

The Lunar Dust Experiment (LDEX) onboard the Lunar Atmosphere and Dust Environment Explorer (LADEE) is an impact ionization dust detector used to characterize the lunar dust exosphere generated by the impacts of large interplanetary particles and meteor streams (Horanyi et al., 2015). In addition to the mass and speed of these lofted particles, LDEX is sensitive to their charge. The resulting signatures of impact events therefore provide valuable information about not only the ambient plasma environment, but also the speed vectors of these dust grains. Here, impact events produced from LDEX's calibration at the Dust Accelerator Laboratory are analyzed using an image charge model derived from the electrostatic simulation program, Coulomb. We show that parameters such as dust grain speed, size, charge, and position of entry into LDEX can be recovered and applied to data collected during LADEE's seven-month mission.

Infrasonic detection of a near-Earth object impact over Indonesia on 8 October 2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silber, Elizabeth A.; Le Pichon, Alexis; Brown, Peter G.

2011-06-01

We present analysis of infrasonic signals produced by a large Earth-impacting fireball, believed to be among the most energetic instrumentally recorded during the last century that occurred on 8 October, 2009 over Indonesia. This extraordinary event, detected by 17 infrasonic stations of the global International Monitoring Network, generated stratospherically ducted infrasound returns at distances up to 17 500 km, the greatest range at which infrasound from a fireball has been detected since the 1908 Tunguska explosion. From these infrasonic records, we find the total source energy for this bolide as 8-67 kilotons of TNT equivalent explosive yield, with the favored best estimate near ˜50 kt. Global impact events of such energy are expected only once per decade and study of their impact effects can provide insight into the impactor threshold levels for ground damage and climate perturbations.

Weather and Death on Mount Everest: Is there a link between Storms and Human Physiology?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, K.; Semple, J.

2004-05-01

Scientific interest in Mount Everest has been largely focused on the hypoxia caused by the summit's low barometric pressure. Although weather is recognized as a significant risk factor, it has not been extensively studied. Through the use of observations made at the mountain's South Col, elevation 7986m, and other datasets, we show that high impact weather events on Mount Everest, including the May 1996 storm in which 8 climbers perished, are often associated with continental-scale intrusions of stratospheric air into the upper-troposphere. The variability in wind speeds associated with these intrusions triggered convective activity that resulted in the high impact weather. In addition, the validation of existing meteorological data allows for useful insights into the possibility of forecasting these high impact weather events and their physiological impacts thereby mitigating deaths that occur on the exposed upper slopes of Mount Everest.

Chemical supply chain modeling for analysis of homeland security events

DOE PAGES

Ehlen, Mark A.; Sun, Amy C.; Pepple, Mark A.; ...

2013-09-06

The potential impacts of man-made and natural disasters on chemical plants, complexes, and supply chains are of great importance to homeland security. To be able to estimate these impacts, we developed an agent-based chemical supply chain model that includes: chemical plants with enterprise operations such as purchasing, production scheduling, and inventories; merchant chemical markets, and multi-modal chemical shipments. Large-scale simulations of chemical-plant activities and supply chain interactions, running on desktop computers, are used to estimate the scope and duration of disruptive-event impacts, and overall system resilience, based on the extent to which individual chemical plants can adjust their internal operationsmore » (e.g., production mixes and levels) versus their external interactions (market sales and purchases, and transportation routes and modes). As a result, to illustrate how the model estimates the impacts of a hurricane disruption, a simple example model centered on 1,4-butanediol is presented.« less

Impact of a Cosmic Body into Earth's Ocean and the Generation of Large Tsunami Waves: Insight from Numerical Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wünnemann, K.; Collins, G. S.; Weiss, R.

2010-12-01

The strike of a cosmic body into a marine environment differs in several respects from impact on land. Oceans cover approximately 70% of the Earth's surface, implying not only that oceanic impact is a very likely scenario for future impacts but also that most impacts in Earth's history must have happened in marine environments. Therefore, the study of oceanic impact is imperative in two respects: (1) to quantify the hazard posed by future oceanic impacts, including the potential threat of large impact-generated tsunami-like waves, and (2) to reconstruct Earth's impact record by accounting for the large number of potentially undiscovered crater structures in the ocean crust. Reconstruction of the impact record is of crucial importance both for assessing the frequency of collision events in the past and for better predicting the probability of future impact. We summarize the advances in the study of oceanic impact over the last decades and focus in particular on how numerical models have improved our understanding of cratering in the oceanic environment and the generation of waves by impact. We focus on insight gleaned from numerical modeling studies into the deceleration of the projectile by the water, cratering of the ocean floor, the late stage modification of the crater due to gravitational collapse, and water resurge. Furthermore, we discuss the generation and propagation of large tsunami-like waves as a result of a strike of a cosmic body in marine environments.

Simulations and Characteristics of Large Solar Events Propagating Throughout the Heliosphere and Beyond (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Intriligator, D. S.; Sun, W.; Detman, T. R.; Dryer, Ph D., M.; Intriligator, J.; Deehr, C. S.; Webber, W. R.; Gloeckler, G.; Miller, W. D.

2015-12-01

Large solar events can have severe adverse global impacts at Earth. These solar events also can propagate throughout the heliopshere and into the interstellar medium. We focus on the July 2012 and Halloween 2003 solar events. We simulate these events starting from the vicinity of the Sun at 2.5 Rs. We compare our three dimensional (3D) time-dependent simulations to available spacecraft (s/c) observations at 1 AU and beyond. Based on the comparisons of the predictions from our simulations with in-situ measurements we find that the effects of these large solar events can be observed in the outer heliosphere, the heliosheath, and even into the interstellar medium. We use two simulation models. The HAFSS (HAF Source Surface) model is a kinematic model. HHMS-PI (Hybrid Heliospheric Modeling System with Pickup protons) is a numerical magnetohydrodynamic solar wind (SW) simulation model. Both HHMS-PI and HAFSS are ideally suited for these analyses since starting at 2.5 Rs from the Sun they model the slowly evolving background SW and the impulsive, time-dependent events associated with solar activity. Our models naturally reproduce dynamic 3D spatially asymmetric effects observed throughout the heliosphere. Pre-existing SW background conditions have a strong influence on the propagation of shock waves from solar events. Time-dependence is a crucial aspect of interpreting s/c data. We show comparisons of our simulation results with STEREO A, ACE, Ulysses, and Voyager s/c observations.

Intra-Seasonal Rainfall Variations and Linkage with Kharif Crop Production: An Attempt to Evaluate Predictability of Sub-Seasonal Rainfall Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Ankita; Ghosh, Kripan; Mohanty, U. C.

2018-03-01

The sub-seasonal variation of Indian summer monsoon rainfall highly impacts Kharif crop production in comparison with seasonal total rainfall. The rainfall frequency and intensity corresponding to various rainfall events are found to be highly related to crop production and therefore, the predictability of such events are considered to be diagnosed. Daily rainfall predictions are made available by one of the coupled dynamical model National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System (NCEPCFS). A large error in the simulation of daily rainfall sequence influences to take up a bias correction and for that reason, two approaches are used. The bias-corrected GCM is able to capture the inter-annual variability in rainfall events. Maximum prediction skill of frequency of less rainfall (LR) event is observed during the month of September and a similar result is also noticed for moderate rainfall event with maximum skill over the central parts of the country. On the other hand, the impact of rainfall weekly rainfall intensity is evaluated against the Kharif rice production. It is found that weekly rainfall intensity during July is having a significant impact on Kharif rice production, but the corresponding skill was found very low in GCM. The GCM are able to simulate the less and moderate rainfall frequency with significant skill.

Reply to comment on "Direct evidence of ancient shock metamorphism at the site of the 1908 Tunguska event" by Vannucchi et al. (Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 409 (2015) 168-174)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vannucchi, Paola; Morgan, Jason P.

2015-04-01

Our paper (Vannucchi et al., 2015) focuses on geologic evidence for shock metamorphism found at the epicentral region of the 1908 Tunguska event. None of the currently proposed bolide explanations for the 1908 event can produce the shock pressures indicated by the geological evidence described in Vannucchi et al. (2015). If the 1908 event would have generated these pressures over the epicentral region, an observable crater should have also formed. The comment by Melott and Overholt discusses the possibility that a 1908 cometary bolide strike in Tunguska cannot be excluded because of the absence of a detectable 14C increase at this site. They dispute the findings of a recent Liu et al.'s (2014) study that an East Asian comet impact recorded by eyewitness accounts in 773 AD was coincident with a detectable 14C increase in regional South China Sea corals that grew at that time. Their point, whether true or not, is fairly peripheral to our study because the bolide hypothesis for the 1908 Tunguska event, no matter the nature of the bolide itself, does not provide a viable explanation for the geological evidence of shock metamorphism found at the 1908 Tunguska site. Furthermore, as we discuss in our paper, the probability of a prior large impact-shock event having occurred at the site of the 1908 event is extremely low, suggesting that a terrestrial shock-generating mechanism may be linked to the resolution of the Tunguska enigma. Our preferred resolution is that a terrestrial hyper-explosive gas release event, a Verneshot (Morgan et al., 2004), created the large shock-event during the emplacement of the Siberian Traps. In this scenario, the 1908 Tunguska event was due to a much smaller gas-burst that re-used the lithospheric weakness created by the ancient Verneshot. Melott and Overholt's discussion regarding the existence and size of regional and global 14C anomalies related to cometary impacts seems, therefore, to be better addressed in response to the work of Liu et al. (2014), as appears to be done in a paper and preprint that Melott and Overholt self-cite in their comment.

Aquatic chemistry of flood events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klavins, Maris; Rodinov, Valery

2015-04-01

During flood events a major discharge of water and dissolved substances happens. However flood waters very much differs from water composition during low-water events. Aquatic chemistry of flood waters also is of importance at the calculation of loadings as well as they might have major impact on water quality in receiving water bodies (lakes, coastal waters and seas). Further flood regime of rivers is subjected to changes due to climate change and growing impact of human activities. The aim of this study is to analyse water chemical composition changes during flood events in respect to low water periods, character of high-water events and characteristics of the corresponding basin. Within this study, the concentrations of major dissolved substances in the major rivers of Latvia have been studied using monitoring data as well as field studies during high water/ low water events. As territories of studies flows of substances in river basins/subbasins with different land-use character and different anthropogenic impacts has been studied to calculate export values depending on the land-use character. Impact of relations between dissolved substances and relations in respect to budgets has been calculated. The dynamics of DOC, nutrient and major dissolved substance flows depending on landuse pattern and soil properties in Latvia has been described, including emissions by industrial and agricultural production. In these changes evidently climate change signals can be identified. The water chemistry of a large number of rivers during flood events has been determined and the possible impact of water chemical composition on DOC and nutrient flows has been evaluated. Long-term changes (1977-2013) of concentrations of dissolved substances do not follow linear trends but rather show oscillating patterns, indicating impact of natural factors, e.g. changing hydrological and climatic conditions. There is a positive correlation between content of inert dissolved substances and water discharge. This study did not reveal a clear correlation between the concentrations of dissolved substances and land-use types within the river basin. Conclusions in respect to calculation needed for loading calculations has been done. Acknowledgement: support from a Latvia Science Council grant "Stability of climate system and its impacts on water quality limiting biogeochemical flows in Latvia"

Silica Debris Disk Evidence for Giant Planet Forming Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lisse, C.

2014-04-01

Giant impacts are major formation events in the history of our solar system. The final assembly of the planets, as we understand it, had to include massive fast collision events as the planets grew to objects with large escape velocities or in regions of high Keplerian velocities (Chambers 2004; Kenyon & Bromley 2004a,b, 2006; Fegley & Schaefer 2005). These massive impact events should create large amounts of glassy silica material derived from the rapid melting, vaporization, and refreezing of normal silicate rich primitive rocky material. We report here the detection of 4 bright silica-rich debris disks in the Spitzer IRS spectral archive, and the possible identification of 7 others. The stellar types of the system primaries span from A5V to G0V, their ages are 10 - 100 Myr, and the dust is warm, 280 - 480 K, and is located between 1.5 and 6 AU, well inside the systems' terrestrial planet regions. The minimum amount of detected 0.1 - 20 dust mass ranges from 10^21 - 10^23 kg; assuming < 10% dust formation efficiency (Benz 2009, 2011) this implies collisions involving impactors massing at least 10^22 - 10^24 kg, i.e. from Moon to Earth mass. We find possible trends in the mineralogy of the silica, with predominantly amorphous silica found in the 2 younger systems, and crystalline silica in the older systems. We speculate this is due higher velocity impacts found in younger, hotter systems, coupled with the effects of energetic photon annealing of small amorphous silica grains. All of these measures are consistent with the creation of silica rich rubble, or construction debris, during the terrestrial planet formation era of giant impacts.

Data Assimilation to Improve CMAQ Model Estimates of Particulate Matter Pollution during Wintertime Persistent Cold Air Pool Events in Salt Lake City, Utah

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivey, C. E.; Balachandran, S.; Russell, A. G.; Hu, Y.; Holmes, H.

2017-12-01

More than one million people live in Salt Lake Valley, Utah, where wintertime pollution reaches unhealthy levels due to the unique meteorology and orography of the region. Persistent cold air pool (PCAP) events occur when high pressure ridges create stagnant conditions over a valley, which hampers large-scale advection and reduces surface wind speeds. During PCAP periods the fraction of incoming solar radiation that reaches the valley floor is also reduced, leading to temperature inversions that allow pollution to build. Pollution levels continue to climb until a washout event removes the pollutants from the valley. Washout events include high winds or precipitation events with advection or wet deposition related removal processes, respectively. In this work, novel data assimilation and source apportionment techniques are applied for January and February 2007 to analyze CMAQ-modeled source composition and source impacts for the Salt Lake Valley during PCAP events. First, a hybrid source-oriented apportionment model is applied over continental U.S. to determine observation and model-based impacts from 20 sources, including agricultural activities, fossil fuel combustion, dust, and metals processing. Then, a secondary bias correction method is applied to better quantify the source impacts on secondary PM2.5, which constitutes the majority of the PM2.5 mass. Revised concentrations reflect what was previously reported in studies of PCAP pollution in the Salt Lake Valley, where the dominant aerosol was found to be ammonium nitrate. Further, gasoline and natural gas combustion were found to be the greatest contributing sources to aerosol concentrations during the PCAP events. The benefit of the data assimilation methods is the availability of spatially and temporally resolved model estimates of source impacts that better reflect observed concentrations.

Characterization of inclusions in terrestrial impact formed zircon: Constraining the formation conditions of Hadean zircon from Jack Hills, Western Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faltys, J. P.; Wielicki, M. M.; Sizemore, T. M.

2017-12-01

Due to the discovery and subsequent geochemical analysis of Hadean terrestrial material (e.g. detrital zircon from Jack Hills, Western Australia), a dramatic paradigm shift has occurred in the hypothesized near surface conditions of the first 500 million years of Earth's evolution. From a hellish setting riddled with impactors and not fit for life to a much milder environment that may have been uniquely suitable for the origin of life. Geochemical analyses of these ancient materials have been used to suggest the presence of water at or near the surface as well as the existence of continental crust during the Hadean, both of which have been suggested as necessary for the origin of life. However, the intensity of extraterrestrial bombardment during the Hadean and the effects of such events on the origin of life remains poorly understood. Clearly, as evidenced by Phanerozoic impact events, extraterrestrial impactors have the potential to dramatically effect the environment, particularly the biosphere. Early Earth likely experienced multiple large impact events, as evidenced by the lunar record, however whether those impacts were sufficient to frustrate the origin of life remains an open question. Although multiple lines of evidence, including the inclusion population, suggest the formation of Hadean zircon from Jack Hills as crystallizing in an under-thrust environment from S-type magmas, a recent study has suggested their formation in an impact melt environment analogous to a portion of the Sudbury Igneous Complex at the Sudbury impact structure. To determine between these two formation scenarios we have under-taken an inclusion study of terrestrial impact formed zircon from four of the largest terrestrial impact structures (Sudbury, Canada; Manicouagan, Canada; Vredefort, South Africa; Morokweng, South Africa), to compare to the vast inclusion dataset that exists for Jack Hills zircon. Preliminary data suggests a different inclusion population, from Hadean zircon, associated with impact formed zircon; however, if certain populations of the Jack Hills record appear to share inclusion assemblages with impact formed zircon, this could provide a tool to constrain the frequency and timing of large impactors on early Earth and their possible effects on conditions conducive for the origin of life.

Land Cover and Seasonality Effects on Biomass Burning Emissions and Air Quality Impacts Observed from Satellites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zoogman, P.; Hoffman, A.; Gonzalez Abad, G.; Miller, C. E.; Nowlan, C. R.; Huang, G.; Liu, X.; Chance, K.

2016-12-01

Trace gas emissions from biomass burning can vary greatly both regionally and from event to event, but our current scientific understanding is unable to fully explain this variability. The large uncertainty in ozone formation resulting from fire emissions has posed a great challenge for assessing fire impacts on air quality and atmospheric composition. Satellite observations from OMI offer a powerful tool to observe biomass burning events by providing observations globally over a range of environmental conditions that effect emissions of NOx, formaldehyde, and glyoxal. We have investigated the seasonal relationship of biomass burning enhancements of these trace gases derived from OMI observations over tropical South America, Africa, and Indonesia. Land cover type (also derived from satellite observations) has a significant impact on formaldehyde and glyoxal enhancements from fire activity. We have found that the chemical ratio between formaldehyde and glyoxal is dependent on the burned land type and will present our current hypotheses for the spatial variation of this ratio in the tropics. Furthermore, in individual case studies we will investigate how these chemical ratios can inform our knowledge of the secondary formation of ozone, particularly during exceptional pollution events.

The influence of narrative v. statistical information on perceiving vaccination risks.

PubMed

Betsch, Cornelia; Ulshöfer, Corina; Renkewitz, Frank; Betsch, Tilmann

2011-01-01

Health-related information found on the Internet is increasing and impacts patient decision making, e.g. regarding vaccination decisions. In addition to statistical information (e.g. incidence rates of vaccine adverse events), narrative information is also widely available such as postings on online bulletin boards. Previous research has shown that narrative information can impact treatment decisions, even when statistical information is presented concurrently. As the determinants of this effect are largely unknown, we will vary features of the narratives to identify mechanisms through which narratives impact risk judgments. An online bulletin board setting provided participants with statistical information and authentic narratives about the occurrence and nonoccurrence of adverse events. Experiment 1 followed a single factorial design with 1, 2, or 4 narratives out of 10 reporting adverse events. Experiment 2 implemented a 2 (statistical risk 20% vs. 40%) × 2 (2/10 vs. 4/10 narratives reporting adverse events) × 2 (high vs. low richness) × 2 (high vs. low emotionality) between-subjects design. Dependent variables were perceived risk of side-effects and vaccination intentions. Experiment 1 shows an inverse relation between the number of narratives reporting adverse-events and vaccination intentions, which was mediated by the perceived risk of vaccinating. Experiment 2 showed a stronger influence of the number of narratives than of the statistical risk information. High (vs. low) emotional narratives had a greater impact on the perceived risk, while richness had no effect. The number of narratives influences risk judgments can potentially override statistical information about risk.

A Chinese cave links climate change, social impacts, and human adaptation over the last 500 years.

PubMed

Tan, Liangcheng; Cai, Yanjun; An, Zhisheng; Cheng, Hai; Shen, Chuan-Chou; Breitenbach, Sebastian F M; Gao, Yongli; Edwards, R Lawrence; Zhang, Haiwei; Du, Yajuan

2015-08-13

The collapse of some pre-historical and historical cultures, including Chinese dynasties were presumably linked to widespread droughts, on the basis of synchronicities of societal crises and proxy-based climate events. Here, we present a comparison of ancient inscriptions in Dayu Cave from Qinling Mountains, central China, which described accurate times and detailed impacts of seven drought events during the period of 1520-1920 CE, with high-resolution speleothem records from the same cave. The comparable results provide unique and robust tests on relationships among speleothem δ(18)O changes, drought events, and societal unrest. With direct historical evidences, our results suggest that droughts and even modest events interrupting otherwise wet intervals can cause serious social crises. Modeling results of speleothem δ(18)O series suggest that future precipitation in central China may be below the average of the past 500 years. As Qinling Mountain is the main recharge area of two large water transfer projects and habitats of many endangered species, it is imperative to explore an adaptive strategy for the decline in precipitation and/or drought events.

A Chinese cave links climate change, social impacts, and human adaptation over the last 500 years

PubMed Central

Tan, Liangcheng; Cai, Yanjun; An, Zhisheng; Cheng, Hai; Shen, Chuan-Chou; Breitenbach, Sebastian F. M.; Gao, Yongli; Edwards, R. Lawrence; Zhang, Haiwei; Du, Yajuan

2015-01-01

The collapse of some pre-historical and historical cultures, including Chinese dynasties were presumably linked to widespread droughts, on the basis of synchronicities of societal crises and proxy-based climate events. Here, we present a comparison of ancient inscriptions in Dayu Cave from Qinling Mountains, central China, which described accurate times and detailed impacts of seven drought events during the period of 1520–1920 CE, with high-resolution speleothem records from the same cave. The comparable results provide unique and robust tests on relationships among speleothem δ18O changes, drought events, and societal unrest. With direct historical evidences, our results suggest that droughts and even modest events interrupting otherwise wet intervals can cause serious social crises. Modeling results of speleothem δ18O series suggest that future precipitation in central China may be below the average of the past 500 years. As Qinling Mountain is the main recharge area of two large water transfer projects and habitats of many endangered species, it is imperative to explore an adaptive strategy for the decline in precipitation and/or drought events. PMID:26270656

Terrestrial lidar measurement of an ongoing calving event on Lange Glacier.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pętlicki, Michał

2017-04-01

Increased tourist and scientific marine traffic along the fronts of tidewater glaciers face a security risk due to possible calving-related hazards. A series of serious accidents involving the falling ice block, calving-generated tsunami wave and the ice projectile impacts were reported. Despite the large interest in calving mechanics, still little is known about the impact range of calving events. Three ongoing calving events on Lange Glacier, King George Island, South Shetland Islands were measured with a terrestrial lidar, giving an insight to the mechanics of the calving processes including the subsequent splash of sea water and the range of ice projectiles released from the front. During the acquisition of the point cloud of the ice front, three calving events of different size occurred. The volume of the calved ice, its potential energy and free-fall velocity was computed and compared with the range of the water splash and ice projectiles. Such measurements can be used in future to mitigate the risk of calving-related marine accidents.

Early Warning and Early Action during the 2015-16 El Nino Event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robertson, A. W.; Goddard, L. M.

2016-12-01

Strong El Niño events have a marked impact on regional climate worldwide through their influence on large-scale atmospheric circulation. As a result, seasonal climate forecasts show greater skill during El Niño events, which provide communities, governments and humanitarian agencies greater ability to plan and prepare. The scientific community has advanced considerably in the quality and content of information provided about El Niño and its impacts. As a result, society has become better aware of and engaged with this information. This talk will present some details on how we navigate the fine line between expectations and probabilistic forecasts, and how this information was used during the 2015-16 El Niño event. Examples are drawn from the health sector and food security community. Specific attention will be given to the importance of problem-focus and data availability in the appropriate tailoring of climate information for Early Warning/Early Action.

Establishing Design Storm Values from Climate Models in Coastal Regions: Challenges and Opportunities

EPA Science Inventory

Dynamic interactions of atmospheric and hydrological processes result in large spatiotemporal changes of precipitation and wind speed in coastal storm events under both current and future climates. This variability can impact the design and sustainability of water infrastructure ...

The debate over the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alvarez, W.; Asaro, F.; Alvarez, L. W.; Michel, H. V.

1988-01-01

Large-body impact on the Earth is a rare but indisputable geologic process. The impact rate is approximately known from objects discovered in Earth-crossing orbits and from the statistics of craters on the Earth's surface. Tektite and microtektite strewn fields constitute unmistakable ejecta deposits that can be due only to large-body impacts. The Cretaceous-Tertiary (K-T) boundary coincides with an unusually severe biological trauma, and this stratigraphic horizon is marked on a worldwide basis by anomalous concentrations of noble metals in chondritic proportions, mineral spherules with relict quench-crystallization textures, and mineral and rock grains showing shock deformation. These features are precisely compatible with an impact origin. Although only impact explains all the types of K-T boundary evidence, the story may not be as simple as once thought. The original hypothesis envisioned one large impact, triggering one great extinction. Newer evidence hints at various complications. Different challenges are faced by the occupants of each apex of a three-cornered argument over the K-T event. Proponents of a non-impact explanation must show that the evidence fits their preferred model better than it fits the impact scenario. Proponents of the single impact-single extinction view must explain away the complications. Proponents of a more complex impact crisis must develop a reasonable scenario which honors the new evidence.

IMPACT fragmentation model developments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sorge, Marlon E.; Mains, Deanna L.

2016-09-01

The IMPACT fragmentation model has been used by The Aerospace Corporation for more than 25 years to analyze orbital altitude explosions and hypervelocity collisions. The model is semi-empirical, combining mass, energy and momentum conservation laws with empirically derived relationships for fragment characteristics such as number, mass, area-to-mass ratio, and spreading velocity as well as event energy distribution. Model results are used for several types of analysis including assessment of short-term risks to satellites from orbital altitude fragmentations, prediction of the long-term evolution of the orbital debris environment and forensic assessments of breakup events. A new version of IMPACT, version 6, has been completed and incorporates a number of advancements enabled by a multi-year long effort to characterize more than 11,000 debris fragments from more than three dozen historical on-orbit breakup events. These events involved a wide range of causes, energies, and fragmenting objects. Special focus was placed on the explosion model, as the majority of events examined were explosions. Revisions were made to the mass distribution used for explosion events, increasing the number of smaller fragments generated. The algorithm for modeling upper stage large fragment generation was updated. A momentum conserving asymmetric spreading velocity distribution algorithm was implemented to better represent sub-catastrophic events. An approach was developed for modeling sub-catastrophic explosions, those where the majority of the parent object remains intact, based on estimated event energy. Finally, significant modifications were made to the area-to-mass ratio distribution to incorporate the tendencies of different materials to fragment into different shapes. This ability enabled better matches between the observed area-to-mass ratios and those generated by the model. It also opened up additional possibilities for post-event analysis of breakups. The paper will discuss a number of the modifications that have been made to improve IMPACT and why these modifications were made. Comparisons between observational data and the IMPACT predictions will be discussed in the context of these model revisions and the overall behavior of model results. A number of future areas of investigation that were uncovered in the process of the analysis efforts will also be reviewed.

Outline of the 2016 Kumamoto, Japan, Earthquakes and lessons for a large urban earthquake in Tokyo Metropolitan area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirata, N.

2016-12-01

A series of devastating earthquakes hit Kumamoto districts in Kyushu, Japan, in April, 2016. The M6.5 event occurred at 21:26 on April 14th (JST) and, 28 hours later, the M7.3 event occurred at 01:25 on April 17th (JST) at almost the same location with a depth of 10 km. The both earthquakes were felt with a seismic intensity of 7 in Japan Metrological Agency (JMA) scale at Mashiki Town. The intensity of 7 is the highest level by definition. Very strong accelerations are observed by the M6.5 event with 1,580 gal at KiK-net Mashiki station and 1,791 gal by the M7.3 event at Ohtsu City station. As a result, more than 8,000 houses are totally collapsed, 26,000 are heavily collapsed, and 120,000 are partially damaged. There are 49 people directly killed and 32 are indirectly killed by the quakes. The most important lesson from the Kumamoto earthquake is that a very strong ground motion may hit immediately after the first large event, say in a few days. This has serious impact to a house damaged by the first large quake. In the 2016 Kumamoto sequence there are also many strong aftershocks including 4 M5.8-5.9 events till April 18th. More than 180,000 people, at most, took shelter because of scaring many strong aftershocks. I will discuss both natural and human aspects of the Kumamoto earthquake disaster by the in-land shallow large earthquakes suggesting lessons for the large Metropolitan Earthquakes in Tokyo, Japan.

Flood events across the North Atlantic region - past development and future perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matti, Bettina; Dieppois, Bastien; Lawler, Damian; Dahlke, Helen E.; Lyon, Steve W.

2016-04-01

Flood events have a large impact on humans, both socially and economically. An increase in winter and spring flooding across much of northern Europe in recent years opened up the question of changing underlying hydro-climatic drivers of flood events. Predicting the manifestation of such changes is difficult due to the natural variability and fluctuations in northern hydrological systems caused by large-scale atmospheric circulations, especially under altered climate conditions. Improving knowledge on the complexity of these hydrological systems and their interactions with climate is essential to be able to determine drivers of flood events and to predict changes in these drivers under altered climate conditions. This is particularly true for the North Atlantic region where both physical catchment properties and large-scale atmospheric circulations have a profound influence on floods. This study explores changes in streamflow across North Atlantic region catchments. An emphasis is placed on high-flow events, namely the timing and magnitude of past flood events, and selected flood percentiles were tested for stationarity by applying a flood frequency analysis. The issue of non-stationarity of flood return periods is important when linking streamflow to large-scale atmospheric circulations. Natural fluctuations in these circulations are found to have a strong influence on the outcome causing natural variability in streamflow records. Long time series and a multi-temporal approach allows for determining drivers of floods and linking streamflow to large-scale atmospheric circulations. Exploring changes in selected hydrological signatures consistency was found across much of the North Atlantic region suggesting a shift in flow regime. The lack of an overall regional pattern suggests that how catchments respond to changes in climatic drivers is strongly influenced by their physical characteristics. A better understanding of hydrological response to climate drivers is essential for example for forecasting purposes.

Meteor Crater: Energy of formation - Implications of centrifuge scaling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schmidt, R. M.

1980-01-01

Recent work on explosive cratering has demonstrated the utility of performing subscale experiments on a geotechnic centrifuge to develop scaling rules for very large energy events. The present investigation is concerned with an extension of this technique to impact cratering. Experiments have been performed using a projectile gun mounted directly on the centrifuge rotor to launch projectiles into a suitable soil container undergoing centripetal accelerations in excess of 500 G. The pump tube of a two-stage light-gas gun was used to attain impact velocities of approximately 2 km/sec. The results of the experiments indicate that the energy of formation of any large impact crater depends upon the impact velocity. This dependence, shown for the case of Meteor Crater, is consistent with analogous results for the specific energy dependence of explosives and is expected to persist to impact velocities in excess of 25 km/sec.

POM Pulses: Characterizing the Physical and Chemical Properties of Particulate Organic Matter (POM) Mobilized by Large Storm Events and its Influence on Receiving Fluvial Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, E. R.; Rowland, R. D.; Protokowicz, J.; Inamdar, S. P.; Kan, J.; Vargas, R.

2016-12-01

Extreme storm events have tremendous erosive energy which is capable of mobilizing vast amounts of material from watershed sources into fluvial systems. This complex mixture of sediment and particulate organic matter (POM) is a nutrient source, and has the potential to impact downstream water quality. The impact of POM on receiving aquatic systems can vary not only by the total amount exported but also by the various sources involved and the particle sizes of POM. This study examines the composition of POM in potential sources and within-event POM by: (1) determining the amount and quality of dissolved organic matter (DOM) that can be leached from coarse, medium and fine particle classes; (2) assessing the C and N content and isotopic character of within-event POM; and (3) coupling physical and chemical properties to evaluate storm event POM influence on stream water. Storm event POM samples and source sediments were collected from a forested headwater catchment (second order stream) in the Piedmont region of Maryland. Samples were sieved into three particle classes - coarse (2mm-1mm), medium (1mm-250µm) and fine (<250µm). Extractions were performed for three particle class sizes and the resulting fluorescent organic matter was analyzed. Carbon (C) and Nitrogen (N) amount, C:N ratio, and isotopic analysis of 13C and 15N were performed on solid state event and source material. Future work will include examination of microbial communities associated with POM particle size classes. Physical size class separation of within-event POM exhibited differences in C:N ratios, δ15N composition, and extracted DOM lability. Smaller size classes exhibited lower C:N ratios, more enriched δ15N and more recalcitrant properties in leached DOM. Source material had varying C:N ratios and contributions to leached DOM. These results indicate that both source and size class strongly influence the POM contribution to fluvial systems during large storm events.

Early Archean Spherule Beds: Chromium Isotopes Confirm Origin Through Multiple Impacts of Projectiles of Carbonaceous Chondrite Type

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kyte, Frank T.; Shukolyukov, Alex; Lugmair, Guenter W.; Lowe, Donald R.; Byerly, Gary R.

2003-01-01

Three Early Archean spherule beds from Barberton, South Africa, have anomalous Cr isotope compositions in addition to large Ir anomalies, confirming the presence of meteoritic material with a composition similar to that in carbonaceous chondrites. The extra-terrestrial components in beds S2, S3, and S4 are estimated to be approx. l%, 50% - 60%, and 15% - 30%, respectively. These beds are probably the distal, and possibly global, ejecta from major large-body impacts. These impacts were probably much larger than the Cretaceous-Tertiary event, and all occurred over an interval of approx. 20 m.y., implying an impactor flux at 3.2 Ga that was more than an order of magnitude greater than the present flux.

Australia's economic transition, unemployment, suicide and mental health needs.

PubMed

Myles, Nicholas; Large, Matthew; Myles, Hannah; Adams, Robert; Liu, Dennis; Galletly, Cherrie

2017-02-01

There have been substantial changes in workforce and employment patterns in Australia over the past 50 years as a result of economic globalisation. This has resulted in substantial reduction in employment in the manufacturing industry often with large-scale job losses in concentrated sectors and communities. Large-scale job loss events receive significant community attention. To what extent these mass unemployment events contribute to increased psychological distress, mental illness and suicide in affected individuals warrants further consideration. Here we undertake a narrative review of published job loss literature. We discuss the impact that large-scale job loss events in the manufacturing sector may have on population mental health, with particular reference to contemporary trends in the Australian economy. We also provide a commentary on the expected outcomes of future job loss events in this context and the implications for Australian public mental health care services. Job loss due to plant closure results in a doubling of psychological distress that peaks 9 months following the unemployment event. The link between job loss and increased rates of mental illness and suicide is less clear. The threat of impending job loss and the social context in which job loss occurs has a significant bearing on psychological outcomes. The implications for Australian public mental health services are discussed.

The effect of matrix properties and fiber properties on impact failure mechanics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elber, W.

1983-01-01

The low-velocity impact problem in graphite/epoxy composite sheets must be solved before large amounts of that material can be used in commercial aircraft. Many of the low-velocity impacts that affect aircraft parts occur during normal ground operations and maintenance. Service equipment and tools have masses above 1 kg, and at velocities of less than 3 m/s can impact structural parts with energies higher than composites can endure without degradation of stiffness or strength. Simple solutions were developed for large-mass, low-velocity impacts which can be modeled as quasi-static events. Static test data and impact data show that the fiber properties control the impact energy which can be absorbed before penetration. Matrix shear strength and peel resistance control the extent of delamination. Comparison of results from tough matrix and brittle matrix composites show that although tough matrices reduce the extent of delamination, they lead to more fiber damage in the contact area.

Natural disasters: forecasting economic and life losses

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nishenko, Stuart P.; Barton, Christopher C.

1997-01-01

Events such as hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, and tornadoes are natural disasters because they negatively impact society, and so they must be measured and understood in human-related terms. At the U.S. Geological Survey, we have developed a new method to examine fatality and dollar-loss data, and to make probabilistic estimates of the frequency and magnitude of future events. This information is vital to large sectors of society including disaster relief agencies and insurance companies.

Cumulative frequency distribution of past species extinctions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Raup, D. M.

1991-01-01

Analysis of Sepkoski's compendium of the time ranges of 30,000+ taxa yields a mean duration of 28.4 ma for genera of fossil invertebrates. This converts to an average extinction rate of 3.5 percent per million years or about one percent every 286,000 years. Using survivorship techniques, these estimates can be converted to the species level, yielding a Phanerozoic average of one percent species extinction every 40,000 years. Variation in extinction rates through time is far greater than the null expectation of a homogeneous birth-death model and this reflects the well-known episodicity of extinction ranging from a few large mass extinctions to so-called background extinction. The observed variation in rates can be used to construct a cumulative frequency distribution of extinction intensity, and this distribution, in the form of a kill curve for species, shows the expected waiting times between extinction events of a given intensity. The kill curve is an average description of the extinction events of a given intensity. The kill curve is an average description of the extinction record and does not imply any cause or causes of extinction. The kill curve shows, among other things, that only about five percent of total species extinctions in the Phanerozoic were involved in the five largest mass extinctions. The other 95 percent were distributed among large and small events not normally called mass extinctions. As an exploration of the possibly absurd proposition that most past extinctions were produced by the effects of large-body impact, the kill curve for species was mapped on the comparable distribution for comet and asteroid impacts. The result is a curve predicting the species kill for a given size of impacting object (expressed as crater size). The results are reasonable in that impacts producing craters less than 30 km (diameter) cause negligible extinction but those producing craters 100-150 km (diameter) cause extinction of species in the range of 45-60 percent.

When is a Tsunami a Mega-Tsunami?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chague-Goff, C.; Goff, J. R.; Terry, J. P.; Goto, K.

2014-12-01

The 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami is commonly called a mega-tsunami, and this attribute has also been linked to the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami. However, since this term was first coined in the early 1990's there have been very few attempts to define it. As such it has been applied in a rather arbitrary fashion to a number of tsunami characteristics, such as wave height or amplitude at both the source and at distant locations, run-up height, geographical extent and impact. The first use of the term is related to a tsunami generated by a large bolide impact and indeed it seems entirely appropriate that the term should be used for such rare events on geological timescales. However, probably as a result of media-driven hyperbole, scientists have used this term at least twice in the last decade, which is hardly a significant portion of the geological timescale. It therefore seems reasonable to suggest that these recent unexpectedly large events do not fall in the category of mega-tsunami but into a category of exceptional events within historical experience and local perspective. The use of the term mega-tsunami over the past 14 years is discussed and a definition is provided that marks the relative uniqueness of these events and a new term, appropriately Japanese in origin, namely that of souteigai-tsunami, is proposed. Examples of these tsunamis will be provided.

Differential responses of emergent intertidal coral reef fauna to a large-scale El-Niño southern oscillation event: sponge and coral resilience.

PubMed

Kelmo, Francisco; Bell, James J; Moraes, Simone Souza; Gomes, Rilza da Costa Tourinho; Mariano-Neto, Eduardo; Attrill, Martin J

2014-01-01

There is a paucity of information on the impacts of the 1997-8 El Niño event and subsequent climatic episodes on emergent intertidal coral reef assemblages. Given the environmental variability intertidal reefs experience, such reefs may potentially be more resilient to climatic events and provide important insights into the adaptation of reef fauna to future ocean warming. Here we report the results of a 17-year (1995-2011) biodiversity survey of four emergent coral reef ecosystems in Bahia, Brazil, to assess the impact of a major El Niño event on the reef fauna, and determine any subsequent recovery. The densities of two species of coral, Favia gravida and Siderastrea stellata, did not vary significantly across the survey period, indicating a high degree of tolerance to the El Niño associated stress. However, there were marked decreases in the diversity of other taxa. Molluscs, bryozoans and ascidians suffered severe declines in diversity and abundance and had not recovered to pre-El Niño levels by the end of the study. Echinoderms were reduced to a single species in 1999, Echinometra lucunter, although diversity levels had recovered by 2002. Sponge assemblages were not impacted by the 1997-8 event and their densities had increased by the study end. Multivariate analysis indicated that a stable invertebrate community had re-established on the reefs after the El Niño event, but it has a different overall composition to the pre-El Niño community. It is unclear if community recovery will continue given more time, but our study highlights that any increase in the frequency of large-scale climatic events to more than one a decade is likely to result in a persistent lower-diversity state. Our results also suggest some coral and sponge species are particularly resilient to the El Niño-associated stress and therefore represent suitable models to investigate temperature adaptation in reef organisms.

First known terrestrial impact of a binary asteroid from a main belt breakup event.

PubMed

Ormö, Jens; Sturkell, Erik; Alwmark, Carl; Melosh, Jay

2014-10-23

Approximately 470 million years ago one of the largest cosmic catastrophes occurred in our solar system since the accretion of the planets. A 200-km large asteroid was disrupted by a collision in the Main Asteroid Belt, which spawned fragments into Earth crossing orbits. This had tremendous consequences for the meteorite production and cratering rate during several millions of years following the event. The 7.5-km wide Lockne crater, central Sweden, is known to be a member of this family. We here provide evidence that Lockne and its nearby companion, the 0.7-km diameter, contemporaneous, Målingen crater, formed by the impact of a binary, presumably 'rubble pile' asteroid. This newly discovered crater doublet provides a unique reference for impacts by combined, and poorly consolidated projectiles, as well as for the development of binary asteroids.

Snow-avalanche impact craters in southern Norway: Their morphology and dynamics compared with small terrestrial meteorite craters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matthews, John A.; Owen, Geraint; McEwen, Lindsey J.; Shakesby, Richard A.; Hill, Jennifer L.; Vater, Amber E.; Ratcliffe, Anna C.

2017-11-01

This regional inventory and study of a globally uncommon landform type reveals similarities in form and process between craters produced by snow-avalanche and meteorite impacts. Fifty-two snow-avalanche impact craters (mean diameter 85 m, range 10-185 m) were investigated through field research, aerial photographic interpretation and analysis of topographic maps. The craters are sited on valley bottoms or lake margins at the foot of steep avalanche paths (α = 28-59°), generally with an easterly aspect, where the slope of the final 200 m of the avalanche path (β) typically exceeds 15°. Crater diameter correlates with the area of the avalanche start zone, which points to snow-avalanche volume as the main control on crater size. Proximal erosional scars ('blast zones') up to 40 m high indicate up-range ejection of material from the crater, assisted by air-launch of the avalanches and impulse waves generated by their impact into water-filled craters. Formation of distal mounds up to 12 m high of variable shape is favoured by more dispersed down-range deposition of ejecta. Key to the development of snow-avalanche impact craters is the repeated occurrence of topographically-focused snow avalanches that impact with a steep angle on unconsolidated sediment. Secondary craters or pits, a few metres in diameter, are attributed to the impact of individual boulders or smaller bodies of snow ejected from the main avalanche. The process of crater formation by low-density, low-velocity, large-volume snow flows occurring as multiple events is broadly comparable with cratering by single-event, high-density, high-velocity, small-volume projectiles such as small meteorites. Simple comparative modelling of snow-avalanche events associated with a crater of average size (diameter 85 m) indicates that the kinetic energy of a single snow-avalanche impact event is two orders of magnitude less than that of a single meteorite-impact event capable of producing a crater of similar size, which is consistent with the incremental development of snow-avalanche impact craters through the Holocene.

Extended Maintenance Downtime 12/14 - 12/18

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2015-12-07

... am - 12/18 @ 5 pm EST Event Impact:  File System Maintenance will be performed on a number of the large file systems ... and Customization Tool -  AMAPS, CALIPSO, CERES, MOPITT, TES and TAD Search and Subset Tools   While some sites and tools may ...

EMP/GMD Phase 0 Report, A Review of EMP Hazard Environments and Impacts

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rivera, Michael Kelly; Backhaus, Scott N.; Woodroffe, Jesse Richard

The purpose of this study is to determine methods to analyze the hazard environments, impacts, and consequences of different sources of electromagnetic pulse (EMP), including nuclear electromagnetic pulse (NEMP) and geomagnetic disturbance (GMD) on the U.S. electric power infrastructures and to use those methods to determine EMP and GMD events of concern. The study will be carried out in four phases, each of which will provide higher levels of analytic fidelity that focuses on those EMP/GMD sources and events that create significant consequences, or whose consequences are sufficiently uncertain, to require more in-depth study. This study will leverage the bestmore » experimental data; device, equipment and system models; and simulation tools currently available. This study focuses primarily on the bulk electric system (BES) including large generating stations, large power transformers, the transmission network, and transmission system protection. Electrical distribution systems may potentially be included, if warranted, after consideration of the consequences for the bulk power system.« less

Delayed fission and multifragmentation in sub-keV C60 - Au(0 0 1) collisions via molecular dynamics simulations: Mass distributions and activated statistical decay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernstein, V.; Kolodney, E.

2017-10-01

We have recently observed, both experimentally and computationally, the phenomenon of postcollision multifragmentation in sub-keV surface collisions of a C60 projectile. Namely, delayed multiparticle breakup of a strongly impact deformed and vibrationally excited large cluster collider into several large fragments, after leaving the surface. Molecular dynamics simulations with extensive statistics revealed a nearly simultaneous event, within a sub-psec time window. Here we study, computationally, additional essential aspects of this new delayed collisional fragmentation which were not addressed before. Specifically, we study here the delayed (binary) fission channel for different impact energies both by calculating mass distributions over all fission events and by calculating and analyzing lifetime distributions of the scattered projectile. We observe an asymmetric fission resulting in a most probable fission channel and we find an activated exponential (statistical) decay. Finally, we also calculate and discuss the fragment mass distribution in (triple) multifragmentation over different time windows, in terms of most abundant fragments.

Aftershock risks such as those demonstrated by the recent events in New Zealand and Japan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shome, Nilesh; Luco, Nicolas; Gerstenberger, Matt; Boyd, Oliver; Field, Edward; Liel, Abbie; van de Lindt, John W.

2014-01-01

Recent earthquakes in New Zealand and Japan show that it is important to consider the spatial and temporal distribution of aftershocks following large magnitude events since the probability of high intensity ground motions from aftershocks, which are capable of causing significant societal impact, can be considerable. This is due to the fact that a mainshock will have many aftershocks, some of which may occur closer to populated areas and may be large enough to cause damage. When a large magnitude event strikes a region, the chance that aftershocks will cause damage can be significant as was observed after the 2011 Tohoku and 2010 Canterbury earthquakes (e.g., damage caused by Mw6.6 April 11, 2011 Fukushima-Hamadori earthquake following Tohoku earthquake or by Mw6.3 February 22, 2011 Christchurch earthquake following Canterbury earthquake). Aftershock events may further damage already damaged buildings, thereby further complicating assessments of risk to the built environment. In this paper, the issue of aftershock risk is addressed by summarizing current research regarding: (1) aftershock hazard, (2) structural fragility/vulnerability before and after the mainshock, and (3) change in risk due to aftershocks.

Detection and Attribution of Simulated Climatic Extreme Events and Impacts: High Sensitivity to Bias Correction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sippel, S.; Otto, F. E. L.; Forkel, M.; Allen, M. R.; Guillod, B. P.; Heimann, M.; Reichstein, M.; Seneviratne, S. I.; Kirsten, T.; Mahecha, M. D.

2015-12-01

Understanding, quantifying and attributing the impacts of climatic extreme events and variability is crucial for societal adaptation in a changing climate. However, climate model simulations generated for this purpose typically exhibit pronounced biases in their output that hinders any straightforward assessment of impacts. To overcome this issue, various bias correction strategies are routinely used to alleviate climate model deficiencies most of which have been criticized for physical inconsistency and the non-preservation of the multivariate correlation structure. We assess how biases and their correction affect the quantification and attribution of simulated extremes and variability in i) climatological variables and ii) impacts on ecosystem functioning as simulated by a terrestrial biosphere model. Our study demonstrates that assessments of simulated climatic extreme events and impacts in the terrestrial biosphere are highly sensitive to bias correction schemes with major implications for the detection and attribution of these events. We introduce a novel ensemble-based resampling scheme based on a large regional climate model ensemble generated by the distributed weather@home setup[1], which fully preserves the physical consistency and multivariate correlation structure of the model output. We use extreme value statistics to show that this procedure considerably improves the representation of climatic extremes and variability. Subsequently, biosphere-atmosphere carbon fluxes are simulated using a terrestrial ecosystem model (LPJ-GSI) to further demonstrate the sensitivity of ecosystem impacts to the methodology of bias correcting climate model output. We find that uncertainties arising from bias correction schemes are comparable in magnitude to model structural and parameter uncertainties. The present study consists of a first attempt to alleviate climate model biases in a physically consistent way and demonstrates that this yields improved simulations of climate extremes and associated impacts. [1] http://www.climateprediction.net/weatherathome/

Scaling Impact-Melt and Crater Dimensions: Implications for the Lunar Cratering Record

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cintala , Mark J.; Grieve, Richard A. F.

1997-01-01

The consequences of impact on the solid bodies of the solar system are manifest and legion. Although the visible effects on planetary surfaces, such as the Moon's, are the most obvious testimony to the spatial and temporal importance of impacts, less dramatic chemical and petrographic characteristics of materials affected by shock abound. Both the morphologic and petrologic aspects of impact cratering are important in deciphering lunar history, and, ideally, each should complement the other. In practice, however, a gap has persisted in relating large-scale cratering processes to petrologic and geochemical data obtained from lunar samples. While this is due in no small part to the fact that no Apollo mission unambiguously sampled deposits of a large crater, it can also be attributed to the general state of our knowledge of cratering phenomena, particularly those accompanying large events. The most common shock-metamorphosed lunar samples are breccias, but a substantial number are impact-melt rocks. Indeed, numerous workers have called attention to the importance of impact-melt rocks spanning a wide range of ages in the lunar sample collection. Photogeologic studies also have demonstrated the widespread occurrence of impact-melt lithologies in and around lunar craters. Thus, it is clear that impact melting has been a fundamental process operating throughout lunar history, at scales ranging from pits formed on individual regolith grains to the largest impact basins. This contribution examines the potential relationship between impact melting on the Moon and the interior morphologies of large craters and peaking basins. It then examines some of the implications of impact melting at such large scales for lunar-sample provenance and evolution of the lunar crust.

Five years database of landslides and floods affecting Swiss transportation networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voumard, Jérémie; Derron, Marc-Henri; Jaboyedoff, Michel

2017-04-01

Switzerland is a country threatened by a lot of natural hazards. Many events occur in built environment, affecting infrastructures, buildings or transportation networks and producing occasionally expensive damages. This is the reason why large landslides are generally well studied and monitored in Switzerland to reduce the financial and human risks. However, we have noticed a lack of data on small events which have impacted roads and railways these last years. This is why we have collect all the reported natural hazard events which have affected the Swiss transportation networks since 2012 in a database. More than 800 roads and railways closures have been recorded in five years from 2012 to 2016. These event are classified into six classes: earth flow, debris flow, rockfall, flood, avalanche and others. Data come from Swiss online press articles sorted by Google Alerts. The search is based on more than thirty keywords, in three languages (Italian, French, German). After verifying that the article relates indeed an event which has affected a road or a railways track, it is studied in details. We get finally information on about sixty attributes by event about event date, event type, event localisation, meteorological conditions as well as impacts and damages on the track and human damages. From this database, many trends over the five years of data collection can be outlined: in particular, the spatial and temporal distributions of the events, as well as their consequences in term of traffic (closure duration, deviation, etc.). Even if the database is imperfect (by the way it was built and because of the short time period considered), it highlights the not negligible impact of small natural hazard events on roads and railways in Switzerland at a national level. This database helps to better understand and quantify this events, to better integrate them in risk assessment.

Evaluating Potential for Large Releases from CO2 StorageReservoirs: Analogs, Scenarios, and Modeling Needs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Birkholzer, Jens; Pruess, Karsten; Lewicki, Jennifer

2005-09-19

While the purpose of geologic storage of CO{sub 2} in deep saline formations is to trap greenhouse gases underground, the potential exists for CO{sub 2} to escape from the target reservoir, migrate upward along permeable pathways, and discharge at the land surface. Such discharge is not necessarily a serious concern, as CO{sub 2} is a naturally abundant and relatively benign gas in low concentrations. However, there is a potential risk to health, safety and environment (HSE) in the event that large localized fluxes of CO{sub 2} were to occur at the land surface, especially where CO{sub 2} could accumulate. Inmore » this paper, we develop possible scenarios for large CO{sub 2} fluxes based on the analysis of natural analogues, where large releases of gas have been observed. We are particularly interested in scenarios which could generate sudden, possibly self-enhancing, or even eruptive release events. The probability for such events may be low, but the circumstances under which they might occur and potential consequences need to be evaluated in order to design appropriate site selection and risk management strategies. Numerical modeling of hypothetical test cases is needed to determine critical conditions for such events, to evaluate whether such conditions may be possible at designated storage sites, and, if applicable, to evaluate the potential HSE impacts of such events and design appropriate mitigation strategies.« less

Effects of rainfall events on the occurrence and detection efficiency of viruses in river water impacted by combined sewer overflows.

PubMed

Hata, Akihiko; Katayama, Hiroyuki; Kojima, Keisuke; Sano, Shoichi; Kasuga, Ikuro; Kitajima, Masaaki; Furumai, Hiroaki

2014-01-15

Rainfall events can introduce large amount of microbial contaminants including human enteric viruses into surface water by intermittent discharges from combined sewer overflows (CSOs). The present study aimed to investigate the effect of rainfall events on viral loads in surface waters impacted by CSO and the reliability of molecular methods for detection of enteric viruses. The reliability of virus detection in the samples was assessed by using process controls for virus concentration, nucleic acid extraction and reverse transcription (RT)-quantitative PCR (qPCR) steps, which allowed accurate estimation of virus detection efficiencies. Recovery efficiencies of poliovirus in river water samples collected during rainfall events (<10%) were lower than those during dry weather conditions (>10%). The log10-transformed virus concentration efficiency was negatively correlated with suspended solid concentration (r(2)=0.86) that increased significantly during rainfall events. Efficiencies of DNA extraction and qPCR steps determined with adenovirus type 5 and a primer sharing control, respectively, were lower in dry weather. However, no clear relationship was observed between organic water quality parameters and efficiencies of these two steps. Observed concentrations of indigenous enteric adenoviruses, GII-noroviruses, enteroviruses, and Aichi viruses increased during rainfall events even though the virus concentration efficiency was presumed to be lower than in dry weather. The present study highlights the importance of using appropriate process controls to evaluate accurately the concentration of water borne enteric viruses in natural waters impacted by wastewater discharge, stormwater, and CSOs. © 2013.

ClimEx - Climate change and hydrological extreme events - risks and perspectives for water management in Bavaria and Québec

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ludwig, Ralf; Baese, Frank; Braun, Marco; Brietzke, Gilbert; Brissette, Francois; Frigon, Anne; Giguère, Michel; Komischke, Holger; Kranzlmueller, Dieter; Leduc, Martin; Martel, Jean-Luc; Ricard, Simon; Schmid, Josef; von Trentini, Fabian; Turcotte, Richard; Weismueller, Jens; Willkofer, Florian; Wood, Raul

2017-04-01

The recent accumulation of extreme hydrological events in Bavaria and Québec has stimulated scientific and also societal interest. In addition to the challenges of an improved prediction of such situations and the implications for the associated risk management, there is, as yet, no confirmed knowledge whether and how climate change contributes to the magnitude and frequency of hydrological extreme events and how regional water management could adapt to the corresponding risks. The ClimEx project (2015-2019) investigates the effects of climate change on the meteorological and hydrological extreme events and their implications for water management in Bavaria and Québec. High Performance Computing is employed to enable the complex simulations in a hydro-climatological model processing chain, resulting in a unique high-resolution and transient (1950-2100) dataset of climatological and meteorological forcing and hydrological response: (1) The climate module has developed a large ensemble of high resolution data (12km) of the CRCM5 RCM for Central Europe and North-Eastern North America, downscaled from 50 members of the CanESM2 GCM. The dataset is complemented by all available data from the Euro-CORDEX project to account for the assessment of both natural climate variability and climate change. The large ensemble with several thousand model years provides the potential to catch rare extreme events and thus improves the process understanding of extreme events with return periods of 1000+ years. (2) The hydrology module comprises process-based and spatially explicit model setups (e.g. WaSiM) for all major catchments in Bavaria and Southern Québec in high temporal (3h) and spatial (500m) resolution. The simulations form the basis for in depth analysis of hydrological extreme events based on the inputs from the large climate model dataset. The specific data situation enables to establish a new method for 'virtual perfect prediction', which assesses climate change impacts on flood risk and water resources management by identifying patterns in the data which reveal preferential triggers of hydrological extreme events. The presentation will highlight first results from the analysis of the large scale ClimEx model ensemble, showing the current and future ratio of natural variability and climate change impacts on meteorological extreme events. Selected data from the ensemble is used to drive a hydrological model experiment to illustrate the capacity to better determine the recurrence periods of hydrological extreme events under conditions of climate change. [The authors acknowledge funding for the project from the Bavarian State Ministry for the Environment and Consumer Protection].

The global landslide distribution in the 2015-16 El Nino event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petley, D. N.; Froude, M.

2016-12-01

It is commonly perceived that the global landslide distribution is heavily influenced by the El Nino / La Nina cycle, and that strong El Nino events are associated with a higher than average occurrence of landslides in many areas. Thus, for example, the very intense 1997-98 El Nino event coincided with high incidence of landslides in parts of North America and South America, and elsewhere. However, there is comparatively little systematic analysis on a global basis. The 2015-16 El Nino event was the most intense since 1997-98, and had been anticipated to generate significant landslide impacts. The occurrence of landslides worldwide through the 2015-16 El Nino has been examined using the author's landslide fatality database, which has been compiled since 2002. The data indicates that 2015 was a year with an unusually small number of rainfall-induced landslides, significantly below the long term average and with unusually low consequences. This is primarily because of two key factors: first, the South Asian monsoon was anomalously weak, resulting in low landslide impacts in the Himalayas. Second, the occurrence of intense landfalling tropical cyclones across East Asia was also unusually low. The combined effect of these two sets of meteorological conditions was low landslide occurrence across Asia. Landslide occurrence across the Americas was also low. On the other hand, 2016 is proving to be an unusually intense landslide year. In particular, intense rainfall associated with early part of the South Asian monsoon has resulted in very widespread landsliding across South Asia. This paper examines the lessons that can be learnt from an improved understanding the relationship between El Nino events and global landslide impacts, and reflects upon the capability to anticipate the impacts of future large El Nino events.

Disaster Risks Reduction for Extreme Natural Hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plag, H.; Jules-Plag, S.

2013-12-01

Mega disasters associated with extreme natural hazards have the potential to escalate the global sustainability crisis and put us close to the boundaries of the safe operating space for humanity. Floods and droughts are major threats that potentially could reach planetary extent, particularly through secondary economic and social impacts. Earthquakes and tsunamis frequently cause disasters that eventually could exceed the immediate coping capacity of the global economy, particularly since we have built mega cities in hazardous areas that are now ready to be harvested by natural hazards. Unfortunately, the more we learn to cope with the relatively frequent hazards (50 to 100 years events), the less we are worried about the low-probability, high-impact events (a few hundred and more years events). As a consequence, threats from the 500 years flood, drought, volcano eruption are not appropriately accounted for in disaster risk reduction (DRR) discussions. Extreme geohazards have occurred regularly throughout the past, but mostly did not cause major disasters because exposure of human assets to hazards was much lower in the past. The most extreme events that occurred during the last 2,000 years would today cause unparalleled damage on a global scale and could worsen the sustainability crisis. Simulation of these extreme hazards under present conditions can help to assess the disaster risk. Recent extreme earthquakes have illustrated the destruction they can inflict, both directly and indirectly through tsunamis. Large volcano eruptions have the potential to impact climate, anthropogenic infrastructure and resource supplies on global scale. During the last 2,000 years several large volcano eruptions occurred, which under today's conditions are associated with extreme disaster risk. The comparison of earthquakes and volcano eruptions indicates that large volcano eruptions are the low-probability geohazards with potentially the highest impact on our civilization. Integration of these low-probability, high-impact events in DRR requires an approach focused on resilience and antifragility, as well as the ability to cope with, and recover from failure of infrastructure and social systems. Resilience does not primarily result from the robustness of infrastructure but mainly is a function of the social capital. While it is important to understand the hazards (the contribution of geosciences), it is equally important to understand the processes that let us cope with the hazards, or lead to failure (the contribution of social sciences and engineering). For the latter, we need a joint effort of social sciences and engineering and a revised science-policy relationship. Democratizing knowledge about extreme geohazards is very important in order to inform deliberations of DRR through increased resilience and reduced fragility. The current science-society dialog is not fully capable of supporting deliberative governance. Most scientific knowledge is created independent of those who could put it to use, and a transition to co-design and co-development of knowledge involving a broad stakeholder base is necessary for DRR, particularly for extreme events. This transition may have the consequence of more responsibility and even liability for science.

Climate change impacts on the duration and frequency of combined sewer overflows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fortier, C.; Mailhot, A.

2012-12-01

Combined sewer overflows (CSO) occur when large rainwater inflow from heavy precipitation exceeds the capacity of urban combined sewage systems. Many American and European cities with old sewage systems see their water quality significantly deteriorate during such events. In the long term, changes in the rainfall regime due to climate change may lead to more severe and more frequent CSO episodes and thus compel cities to review their global water management. The overall objective of this study is to investigate how climate change will impact CSO frequency and duration. Data from rain gauges located nearby 30 overflow outfalls, in southern Quebec, Canada, were used to identify rain events leading to overflows, using CSO monitored data from May to October during the period 2007-2009. For each site, occurrence and duration of CSO events were recorded and linked to a rainfall event. Many rain events features can be used to predict CSO events, such as total depth, duration, average intensity and peak intensity. Results based on Pearson product-moment correlation coefficients and multiple regression analysis show that CSO occurrence is best predicted by total rainfall. A methodology is proposed to calculate the CSO probability of occurrence and duration for each site of interest using rainfall series as input data. Monte Carlo method is then used to estimate CSO frequency. To evaluate the climate change impact on CSO, these relationships are used with simulated data from the Canadian Regional Climate Model to compare the distribution of annual number of CSO events over the 1960-1990 period and the 2070-2100 period.

Target Earth: evidence for large-scale impact events.

PubMed

Grieve, R A

1997-05-30

Unlike the Moon, the Earth has retained only a small sample of its population of impact structures. Currently, over 150 impact structures are known and there are 15 instances of impact known from the stratigraphic record, some of which have been correlated with known impact structures. The terrestrial record is biased toward younger and larger structures on the stable cratonic areas of the crust, because of the effects of constant surface renewal on the Earth. The high level of endogenic geologic activity also affects the morphology and morphometry of terrestrial impact structures; although, the same general morphologic forms that occur on the other terrestrial planets can be observed. A terrestrial cratering rate of 5.6 +/- 2.8 x 10(-15) km-1 a-1 for structures > or = 20 km in diameter can be derived, which is equivalent to that estimated from astronomical observations. Although there are claims to the contrary, the overall uncertainties in the ages of structures in the impact record preclude the determination of any periodicity in the record. Small terrestrial impact structures are the result of the impact of iron or stony iron bodies, with weaker stony and icy bodies being crushed on atmospheric passage. At larger structures (>1 km), trace element geochemistry suggests that approximately 50% of the impact flux is from chondritic bodies, but this may be a function of the signal:noise ratio of the meteoritic tracer elements. Evidence for impact in the stratigraphic record is both chemical and physical. Although currently small in number, there are indications that more evidence will be forthcoming with time. Such searches for evidence of impact have been stimulated by the chemical and physical evidence of the involvement of impact at the K/T boundary. There will, however, be problems in differentiating geochemically the signal of even relatively large impact events from the background cosmic flux of every day meteoritic debris. Even with these biases and difficulties, the terrestrial impact record is the dominan source of ground truth information on the details of the impact flux and its known and potential effects on the evolution of the Earth and its biosphere. For although the record is poorly known, what evidence there is represents an integration over considerable geologic time. On the timescales of 10(5)-10(6) a, it is clear that impact represents a major threat to human civilization. Given the stochastic nature of impact, the timing of such an event is unknown.

The Impact of Continuity Editing in Narrative Film on Event Segmentation

PubMed Central

Magliano, Joseph P.; Zacks, Jeffrey M.

2011-01-01

Filmmakers use continuity editing to engender a sense of situational continuity or discontinuity at editing boundaries. The goal of this study was to assess the impact of continuity editing on how people perceive the structure of events in a narrative film and to identify brain networks that are associated with the processing of different types of continuity editing boundaries. Participants viewed a commercially produced film and segmented it into meaningful events while brain activity was recorded with functional MRI. We identified three degrees of continuity that can occur at editing locations: edits that are continuous in space, time, and action; edits that are discontinuous in space or time but continuous in action; and edits that are discontinuous in action as well as space or time. Discontinuities in action had the biggest impact on behavioral event segmentation and discontinuities in space and time had minor effects. Edits were associated with large transient increases in early visual areas. Spatial-temporal changes and action changes produced strikingly different patterns of transient change, and provided evidence that specialized mechanisms in higher-order perceptual processing regions are engaged to maintain continuity of action in the face of spatiotemporal discontinuities. These results suggest that commercial film editing is shaped to support the comprehension of meaningful events that bridge breaks in low-level visual continuity, and even breaks in continuity of spatial and temporal location. PMID:21972849

The role of impact events play in redistributing and sequestering water on Early Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osinski, G.; Tornabene, L. L.

2017-12-01

Impact cratering is one of the most fundamental geological process in the Solar System. Several workers have considered the effect that impact events may have had on the climate of Early Mars. The proposed effects range from impact-induced precipitation to the production of runaway stable climates to the impact delivery of climatically active gases. The role of impact events in forming hydrated minerals has been touched upon but remains debated. In this contribution, we focus on the role that impact events may have played in redistributing and sequestering water on Early Mars; a record that may still be preserved in the Noachian crust. It has been previously proposed that the sequestration of significant quantities of water may have occurred within various hydrated minerals, in particular clays, in the martian crust. There is undoubtedly no single origin for clay-bearing rocks on Mars and the purpose of this contribution is not to review all the possible formation mechanisms. What we do propose, however, is that it is theoretically possible for impact events to create all known occurrences of clays on Mars. We show that clays can form within and around impact craters in two main ways: through the solid-state devitrification of hydrous impact melts and/or impact-generated hydrothermal alteration. Neither of these mechanisms requires a warmer or wetter climate scenario on Early Mars. Notwithstanding the original origin of clays, any clays may be widely redistributed over the Martian surface in the ejecta deposits of large impact craters. However, ejecta deposits are much more complex than commonly thought, with evidence in many instances for two different types of ejecta deposits around martian craters. The first is a ballistic ejecta layer that is low-shock, melt-poor and low-temperature; it will likely not induce the formation of new clays through the mechanisms described above, but could redistribute pre-impact clays over 100's and 1000's of km over the martian surface. Overlying ballistic ejecta deposits is a second ejecta type that is more melt-rich and higher temperature and that has been shown (on Earth) to form new primary clays and other hydrated minerals. This potential to form clays in situ many 100's of km away from the source crater in melt-rich ejecta deposits should be considered in any study of the Noachian crust.

A Synoptic Climatology of Combined Severe/Weather/Flash Flood Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pallozzi, Kyle J.

Classical forms of severe weather such as tornadoes, damaging convective wind gusts, and large hail, as well as flash flooding events, all have potentially large societal impacts. This impact is further magnified when these hazards occur simultaneously in time and space. A major challenge for operational forecasters is how to accurately predict the occurrence of combined storm hazards, and how to communicate the associated multiple threat hazards to the public. A seven-year climatology (2009-2015) of combined severe weather/flash flooding (SVR/FF) events across the contiguous United States was developed in attempt to study the combined SVR/FF event hazards further. A total of 211 total cases were identified and sub-divided into seven subcategories based on their convective morphology and meteorological characteristics. Heatmaps of event report frequency were created to extract spatial, seasonal and interannual patterns in SVR/FF event activity. Diurnal trends were examined from time series plots of tornado, hail, wind and flash flood/flood reports. Event-centered composites of environmental variables were created for each subcategory from 13 km RUC/RAP analyses. Representative cases studies were conducted for each subcategory. A "ring of fire" with the highest levels of SVR/FF event activity was noted across the central United States. SVR/FF events were least common in the Southeast, High Plains, and Northern Plains. Enhanced SVR/FF activity reflected contributions from synoptic events during the cool and shoulder seasons over the Lower Mississippi, Arkansas and Tennessee Valleys, and MCS activity during the warm season over the lower Great Plains, and the Upper Mississippi, Missouri and Ohio River Valleys. Results from the composite analyses indicated that relatively high values of CAPE, surface-500 hPa shear and precipitable water were observed for all subcategories. Case studies show that many high-end SVR/FF events featured slow-moving, or quasi-stationary fronts/outflow boundaries, a moist troposphere and front-paralleling 850-300 hPa mean winds. In this environment, individual convective cells can be advected downstream along the initiating boundary, resulting in flood-producing training echoes. A relatively moist troposphere leads to efficient precipitation production, limits cold-pool formation/off-boundary propagation, and further increases the likelihood of flash flooding.

Observations of wave transformation over a fringing coral reef and the importance of low-frequency waves and offshore water levels to runup, overwash, and coastal flooding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheriton, Olivia M.; Storlazzi, Curt D.; Rosenberger, Kurt J.

2016-05-01

Many low-lying tropical islands are susceptible to sea level rise and often subjected to overwash and flooding during large wave events. To quantify wave dynamics and wave-driven water levels on fringing coral reefs, a 5 month deployment of wave gauges and a current meter was conducted across two shore-normal transects on Roi-Namur Island in the Republic of the Marshall Islands. These observations captured two large wave events that had waves with maximum heights greater than 6 m with peak periods of 16 s over the fore reef. The larger event coincided with a peak spring tide, leading to energetic, highly skewed infragravity (0.04-0.004 Hz) and very low frequency (0.004-0.001 Hz) waves at the shoreline, which reached heights of 1.0 and 0.7 m, respectively. Water surface elevations, combined with wave runup, reached 3.7 m above the reef bed at the innermost reef flat adjacent to the toe of the beach, resulting in flooding of inland areas. This overwash occurred during a 3 h time window that coincided with high tide and maximum low-frequency reef flat wave heights. The relatively low-relief characteristics of this narrow reef flat may further drive shoreline amplification of low-frequency waves due to resonance modes. These results (1) demonstrate how the coupling of high offshore water levels with low-frequency reef flat wave energetics can lead to large impacts along fringing reef-lined shorelines, such as island overwash, and (2) lend support to the hypothesis that predicted higher sea levels will lead to more frequent occurrences of these extreme events, negatively impacting coastal resources and infrastructure.

Observations of wave transformation over a fringing coral reef and the importance of low-frequency waves and offshore water levels to runup, overwash, and coastal flooding

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cheriton, Olivia; Storlazzi, Curt; Rosenberger, Kurt

2016-01-01

Many low-lying tropical islands are susceptible to sea level rise and often subjected to overwash and flooding during large wave events. To quantify wave dynamics and wave-driven water levels on fringing coral reefs, a 5 month deployment of wave gauges and a current meter was conducted across two shore-normal transects on Roi-Namur Island in the Republic of the Marshall Islands. These observations captured two large wave events that had waves with maximum heights greater than 6 m with peak periods of 16 s over the fore reef. The larger event coincided with a peak spring tide, leading to energetic, highly skewed infragravity (0.04–0.004 Hz) and very low frequency (0.004–0.001 Hz) waves at the shoreline, which reached heights of 1.0 and 0.7 m, respectively. Water surface elevations, combined with wave runup, reached 3.7 m above the reef bed at the innermost reef flat adjacent to the toe of the beach, resulting in flooding of inland areas. This overwash occurred during a 3 h time window that coincided with high tide and maximum low-frequency reef flat wave heights. The relatively low-relief characteristics of this narrow reef flat may further drive shoreline amplification of low-frequency waves due to resonance modes. These results (1) demonstrate how the coupling of high offshore water levels with low-frequency reef flat wave energetics can lead to large impacts along fringing reef-lined shorelines, such as island overwash, and (2) lend support to the hypothesis that predicted higher sea levels will lead to more frequent occurrences of these extreme events, negatively impacting coastal resources and infrastructure.

Widespread habitat change through paludification as an interactive mechanism in mass extinction events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Klinger, L. F.

1988-01-01

The study of mass extinction events has largely focused on defining an environmental factor or factors that might account for specific patterns of faunal demise. Several hypotheses elaborate on how a given environmental factor might affect fauna directly, but differentially, causing extinction in certain taxa but not others. Yet few studies have considered specific habitat changes that might result from natural vegetation processes or from perturbations of vegetation. The role of large-scale habitat change induced by natural successional change from forest to bog (paludification) is examined and how large perturbations (e.g., volcanism, bolide impacts) might favor increased rates of paludification and consequent mass extinctions is considered. This hypothesis has an advantage over other hypotheses for mass extinctions in that modern day analogs of paludification are common throughout the world, thus allowing for considerable testing.

Drop impact upon micro- and nanostructured superhydrophobic surfaces.

PubMed

Tsai, Peichun; Pacheco, Sergio; Pirat, Christophe; Lefferts, Leon; Lohse, Detlef

2009-10-20

We experimentally investigate drop impact dynamics onto different superhydrophobic surfaces, consisting of regular polymeric micropatterns and rough carbon nanofibers, with similar static contact angles. The main control parameters are the Weber number We and the roughness of the surface. At small We, i.e., small impact velocity, the impact evolutions are similar for both types of substrates, exhibiting Fakir state, complete bouncing, partial rebouncing, trapping of an air bubble, jetting, and sticky vibrating water balls. At large We, splashing impacts emerge forming several satellite droplets, which are more pronounced for the multiscale rough carbon nanofiber jungles. The results imply that the multiscale surface roughness at nanoscale plays a minor role in the impact events for small We less than or approximately equal 120 but an important one for large We greater than or approximately equal 120. Finally, we find the effect of ambient air pressure to be negligible in the explored parameter regime We less than or approximately equal 150.

The flood of June 2013 in Germany: how much do we know about its impacts?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thieken, Annegret H.; Bessel, Tina; Kienzler, Sarah; Kreibich, Heidi; Müller, Meike; Pisi, Sebastian; Schröter, Kai

2016-07-01

In June 2013, widespread flooding and consequent damage and losses occurred in Central Europe, especially in Germany. This paper explores what data are available to investigate the adverse impacts of the event, what kind of information can be retrieved from these data and how well data and information fulfil requirements that were recently proposed for disaster reporting on the European and international levels. In accordance with the European Floods Directive (2007/60/EC), impacts on human health, economic activities (and assets), cultural heritage and the environment are described on the national and sub-national scale. Information from governmental reports is complemented by communications on traffic disruptions and surveys of flood-affected residents and companies. Overall, the impacts of the flood event in 2013 were manifold. The study reveals that flood-affected residents suffered from a large range of impacts, among which mental health and supply problems were perceived more seriously than financial losses. The most frequent damage type among affected companies was business interruption. This demonstrates that the current scientific focus on direct (financial) damage is insufficient to describe the overall impacts and severity of flood events. The case further demonstrates that procedures and standards for impact data collection in Germany are widely missing. Present impact data in Germany are fragmentary, heterogeneous, incomplete and difficult to access. In order to fulfil, for example, the monitoring and reporting requirements of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 that was adopted in March 2015 in Sendai, Japan, more efforts on impact data collection are needed.

2014 Summer Series - Rusty Schweickart - Dinosaur Syndrome Avoidance Project: How Gozit?

NASA Image and Video Library

2014-07-17

The 2013 Chelyabinsk meteor demonstrated that grave uncertainties exist pertaining to near-Earth objects (NEOs). Although the impact rate for dangerous asteroids is relatively low, the consequences of such an event are severe. Apollo Astronaut Rusty Schweickart, will talk about our prospects of avoiding the same fate as the dinosaurs. He will review the status of the global efforts to protect life on the planet from the devastation of large asteroid impacts. He will also discuss both the technical and geopolitical components of the challenge of preventing future asteroid impacts.

Insights into PM10 sources in Houston, Texas: Role of petroleum refineries in enriching lanthanoid metals during episodic emission events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bozlaker, Ayşe; Buzcu-Güven, Birnur; Fraser, Matthew P.; Chellam, Shankararaman

2013-04-01

Petroleum refineries may emit large quantities of pollutants during non-routine operations that include start-ups and shutdowns, planned maintenance, and unplanned equipment failures. The Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) tracks such events by requiring industries to self-report estimates of these emissions because they often have a detrimental impact on local air quality and potentially, public health. An inventory of non-routine episodic emission events is available via TCEQ's website. However, there is on-going concern that such episodic emissions are sometimes under-reported or even not cataloged. Herein, we present concentrations of 42 main group, transition, and lanthanoid elements in 114 time-resolved (3 or 6 h) samples collected over a 1-month period. We also develop strategies to identify aerosol sources using elemental tracers and compare source apportionment (performed by positive matrix factorization) based on ambient measurements to inventoried non-routine emission events. Through interpretation of key marker elements, five sources impacting concentrations of metals in PM10 were identified and calculated to contribute 73% of the measured PM10 mass. On average, primary emissions from fluidized-bed catalytic cracking (FCC) units negligibly contributed to apportioned PM10 mass. However, 35 samples were identified as impacted by transient PM10 emissions from FCC units because of elevated levels of lanthanoid metals and their ratios. Only 31 of these 35 samples coincided with self-reported non-routine emission events. Further, roughly half of the emission event self-reports detailed only emissions of gaseous pollutants. Based on this, we posit that not all PM10 emission events are reported and even self-reported emission events are incomplete - those that only catalog gaseous pollutants may also include unreported PM emissions.

Bottom-up perspectives of extreme event and climate change threats to water quality: Drinking water utilities in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ekstrom, J.; Klasic, M.; Fencl, A.; Lubell, M.; Bedsworth, L. W.; Baker, E.

2016-12-01

Extreme events impact water quality, which pose serious challenges for drinking water systems. Such extreme events, including wildfire, storm surge, and other weather-related extremes, are projected to increase under a changing climate. It remains unclear what climate change information can support water managers in preparing for more extreme events. Exploring this topic requires understanding the larger question: What is the role of scientific information in adapting to climate change? We present two parts of a three-year study geared to understand whether, where, why and in what way climate information (or the lack of) is used or needed to support long term water quality planning for extreme events. In 2015 we surveyed California drinking water utilities and found a wide range of extreme event/water quality issues, perspectives on the severity of climate change threats, drought impacts and trusted information sources relating to water quality concerns. Approximately 70% of 259 respondents had recently experienced extreme weather-related events that worsen or trigger water quality. Survey results informed development of a case study analysis to gain a more in-depth understanding of what type of - or when - extreme events information could support climate adaptation. Projections of extreme events are often not in a form that is useable for water quality planning. Relative to supply-related projections, water quality has received much less scientific attention, leaving it an assumed scientific information gap and need for management. The question remains whether filling this gap would help adaptation, whom it would help, and in what way. Based on interviews with water systems in Summer 2016, our case study analyses reinforce that extreme events threaten water quality in many ways; largely as secondary impacts of climate change. Secondary impacts involve disinfection byproducts, increasing salinity in the Delta, and the use of lower quality sources. The most common barriers impeding effective adaptation were not related to information. Instead, respondents frequently expressed the obstacles of external institutions not coordinating with their needs. This demonstrates why climate adaptation must simultaneously occur at multiple levels of governance in order for water systems to successfully advance.

Summary of impact markers and potential impact mechanisms for the YDB impact event at 12.9 ka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bunch, T. E.; Schultz, P. H.; Wittke, J. H.; West, A.; Kennett, J.; Kennett, D. J.

2009-12-01

Until the announcements of a possible impact event (Firestone et al. 2007; Kennett et al., 2009a; 2009b) at the beginning of the Younger Dryas (YD) around 12.9 ka, the KT impact layer (KTB) that resulted from the Chicxulub impact at 65 mya was the only geological boundary layer known to contain coeval peaks in various impact markers, including diamonds. Here, we compare impact markers from the KTB, YD boundary layer (YDB), and the 1908 Tunguska airburst layer (TAL). First order markers, related to impact and biomass burning, include: magnetic spherules, carbon spherules, nanodiamonds (cubic and lonsdaleite), iridium anomalies, charcoal, fullerenes (with high 3He to 4He ratio), grape-like soot, and widespread extinctions. Observations and analytical data for the YDB are consistent with all of the KTB markers, while the last three markers are unknown or inconclusive for the Tunguska layer. Selected markers for cratering events, e.g, Chicxulub, are: a visible crater, shocked minerals, impact breccia, and microtektites. None of these are known for the YD event or Tunguska. The discussion here is limited to possible origins of the impact markers and not with impact consequences (climate change, extinctions, etc.). Several origins may account for impact materials in the YDB: (1) An extraordinary accretion of micrometeorites (Pinter and Ishman, 2008). However, this is inconsistent with YDB carbon spherule compositions, including the large concentrations of nanodiamonds found embedded in those carbon spherules. (2) Oblique impact(s) into the Laurentide Ice Sheet. This model is consistent with the lack of a visible crater and apparent lack of cratering markers (above), and yet also provides for shock production of the many cubic nanodiamonds and lonsdaleite found in the YDB. (3) Impact-induced aerial burst. e.g, Boslough and Crawford (2007); Shuvalov (2008). The lack of high shock pressures in an aerial detonation does not necessarily preclude the formation of cubic and hexagonal diamonds, as shown by Maruyama et al. (1993), who made hexagonal and cubic diamonds by a CVD process from a high-temperature plasma atmosphere (13,000°C) under pressure conditions similar to those in an aerial burst. The Tunguska event is commonly accepted as the result of a near-surface aerial burst and has many similarities to the YD event. (4) Comet grazing of the atmosphere (Drobysheski, 2009), involving nearly tangential entry of a comet into the Earth’s atmosphere with partial detonation and melting followed by escape of the unexploded nucleus into space. This has the net effect of an atmosphere-penetrating aerial burst followed by global fallout of detonation products. Three of the four above scenarios are plausible.

Different regional climatic drivers of Holocene large wildfires in boreal forests of northeastern America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Remy, Cécile C.; Hély, Christelle; Blarquez, Olivier; Magnan, Gabriel; Bergeron, Yves; Lavoie, Martin; Ali, Adam A.

2017-03-01

Global warming could increase climatic instability and large wildfire activity in circumboreal regions, potentially impairing both ecosystem functioning and human health. However, links between large wildfire events and climatic and/or meteorological conditions are still poorly understood, partly because few studies have covered a wide range of past climate-fire interactions. We compared palaeofire and simulated climatic data over the last 7000 years to assess causes of large wildfire events in three coniferous boreal forest regions in north-eastern Canada. These regions span an east-west cline, from a hilly region influenced by the Atlantic Ocean currently dominated by Picea mariana and Abies balsamea to a flatter continental region dominated by Picea mariana and Pinus banksiana. The largest wildfires occurred across the entire study zone between 3000 and 1000 cal. BP. In western and central continental regions these events were triggered by increases in both the fire-season length and summer/spring temperatures, while in the eastern region close to the ocean they were likely responses to hydrological (precipitation/evapotranspiration) variability. The impact of climatic drivers on fire size varied spatially across the study zone, confirming that regional climate dynamics could modulate effects of global climate change on wildfire regimes.

Noril'sk/Siberian plateau basalts and Bahama hot spot: Impact triggered?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Deitz, R. S.; Mchone, J. F.

1992-01-01

Twenty-eight years after one of us argued that Sudbury was an astrobleme, this interpretation has only recently attained wide acceptance; not so for the view that the Sudbury Cu/Ni sulfide ores are cosmogenic. Other research has provided the triggering of plateau basalts by super-large impacts a modicum of respectability. The recent apparent successful tying in of the K/T extinctions to the Chicxulub astrobleme in the Yucatan encourages the search for an impact event that may have caused the other two major post-Paleozoic extinctions (P/Tr, Tr/J). This gives us heart to offer two further outrageous hypotheses. The cosmogenic concept for the Sudbury ore deposite remains viable because it is giant, nonultramafic, and unique (except for Noril'sk). The Triassic/Jurassic boundary catastrophic extinctions have been attributed to the Manicouagan asteroidal impact, but recent radiometric dating indicates these events are diachronous (Manicouagan astrobleme 212 +/- 2 Ma and Tr/J boundary 200 Ma).

Cumulative Damage in Strength-Dominated Collisions of Rocky Asteroids: Rubble Piles and Brick Piles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Housen, Kevin

2009-01-01

Laboratory impact experiments were performed to investigate the conditions that produce large-scale damage in rock targets. Aluminum cylinders (6.3 mm diameter) impacted basalt cylinders (69 mm diameter) at speeds ranging from 0.7 to 2.0 km/s. Diagnostics included measurements of the largest fragment mass, velocities of the largest remnant and large fragments ejected from the periphery of the target, and X-ray computed tomography imaging to inspect some of the impacted targets for internal damage. Significant damage to the target occurred when the kinetic energy per unit target mass exceeded roughly 1/4 of the energy required for catastrophic shattering (where the target is reduced to one-half its original mass). Scaling laws based on a rate-dependent strength were developed that provide a basis for extrapolating the results to larger strength-dominated collisions. The threshold specific energy for widespread damage was found to scale with event size in the same manner as that for catastrophic shattering. Therefore, the factor of four difference between the two thresholds observed in the lab also applies to larger collisions. The scaling laws showed that for a sequence of collisions that are similar in that they produce the same ratio of largest fragment mass to original target mass, the fragment velocities decrease with increasing event size. As a result, rocky asteroids a couple hundred meters in diameter should retain their large ejecta fragments in a jumbled rubble-pile state. For somewhat larger bodies, the ejection velocities are sufficiently low that large fragments are essentially retained in place, possibly forming ordered "brick-pile" structures.

Optimizing oil spill cleanup efforts: A tactical approach and evaluation framework.

PubMed

Grubesic, Tony H; Wei, Ran; Nelson, Jake

2017-12-15

Although anthropogenic oil spills vary in size, duration and severity, their broad impacts on complex social, economic and ecological systems can be significant. Questions pertaining to the operational challenges associated with the tactical allocation of human resources, cleanup equipment and supplies to areas impacted by a large spill are particularly salient when developing mitigation strategies for extreme oiling events. The purpose of this paper is to illustrate the application of advanced oil spill modeling techniques in combination with a developed mathematical model to spatially optimize the allocation of response crews and equipment for cleaning up an offshore oil spill. The results suggest that the detailed simulations and optimization model are a good first step in allowing both communities and emergency responders to proactively plan for extreme oiling events and develop response strategies that minimize the impacts of spills. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

First known Terrestrial Impact of a Binary Asteroid from a Main Belt Breakup Event

PubMed Central

Ormö, Jens; Sturkell, Erik; Alwmark, Carl; Melosh, Jay

2014-01-01

Approximately 470 million years ago one of the largest cosmic catastrophes occurred in our solar system since the accretion of the planets. A 200-km large asteroid was disrupted by a collision in the Main Asteroid Belt, which spawned fragments into Earth crossing orbits. This had tremendous consequences for the meteorite production and cratering rate during several millions of years following the event. The 7.5-km wide Lockne crater, central Sweden, is known to be a member of this family. We here provide evidence that Lockne and its nearby companion, the 0.7-km diameter, contemporaneous, Målingen crater, formed by the impact of a binary, presumably ‘rubble pile’ asteroid. This newly discovered crater doublet provides a unique reference for impacts by combined, and poorly consolidated projectiles, as well as for the development of binary asteroids. PMID:25340551

Quantifying volcanic ash dispersal and impact of the Campanian Ignimbrite super-eruption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Costa, A.; Folch, A.; Macedonio, G.; Giaccio, B.; Isaia, R.; Smith, V. C.

2012-05-01

We apply a novel computational approach to assess, for the first time, volcanic ash dispersal during the Campanian Ignimbrite (Italy) super-eruption providing insights into eruption dynamics and the impact of this gigantic event. The method uses a 3D time-dependent computational ash dispersion model, a set of wind fields, and more than 100 thickness measurements of the CI tephra deposit. Results reveal that the CI eruption dispersed 250-300 km3 of ash over ˜3.7 million km2. The injection of such a large quantity of ash (and volatiles) into the atmosphere would have caused a volcanic winter during the Heinrich Event 4, the coldest and driest climatic episode of the Last Glacial period. Fluorine-bearing leachate from the volcanic ash and acid rain would have further affected food sources and severely impacted Late Middle-Early Upper Paleolithic groups in Southern and Eastern Europe.

Simulation of metals transport and toxicity at a mine-impacted watershed: California Gulch, Colorado.

PubMed

Velleux, Mark L; Julien, Pierre Y; Rojas-Sanchez, Rosalia; Clements, William H; England, John F

2006-11-15

The transport and toxicity of metals at the California Gulch, Colorado mine-impacted watershed were simulated with a spatially distributed watershed model. Using a database of observations for the period 1984-2004, hydrology, sediment transport, and metals transport were simulated for a June 2003 calibration event and a September 2003 validation event. Simulated flow volumes were within approximately 10% of observed conditions. Observed ranges of total suspended solids, cadmium, copper, and zinc concentrations were also successfully simulated. The model was then used to simulate the potential impacts of a 1-in-100-year rainfall event. Driven by large flows and corresponding soil and sediment erosion for the 1-in-100-year event, estimated solids and metals export from the watershed is 10,000 metric tons for solids, 215 kg for Cu, 520 kg for Cu, and 15,300 kg for Zn. As expressed by the cumulative criterion unit (CCU) index, metals concentrations far exceed toxic effects thresholds, suggesting a high probability of toxic effects downstream of the gulch. More detailed Zn source analyses suggest that much of the Zn exported from the gulch originates from slag piles adjacent to the lower gulch floodplain and an old mining site located near the head of the lower gulch.

Catastrophic event recorded among Holocene eolianites (Sidi Salem Formation, SE Tunisia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frébourg, Gregory; Hasler, Claude-Alain; Davaud, Eric

2010-03-01

A high-energy deposit cuts through the early Holocene eolianites of the Sidi Salem Formation which forms a ridge along the southeastern coast of Tunisia. The sedimentary structures as well as the paleo-altitude and paleo-location of the outcrop state for a subaqueous deposition by an unusually large catastrophic event. Regarding its age and the related uncertainties, it could be either an exceptional storm, or a landslide or impact triggered tsunami. The mega-tsunami of the 8000 BP collapse of the Valle del Bove valley (Etna Volcano) could be this event, for its matching age and calculated run-up height.

Non-stationarity of extreme weather events in a changing climate - an application to long-term droughts in the US Southwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grossmann, I.

2013-12-01

Return periods of many extreme weather events are not stationary over time, given increasing risks due to global warming and multidecadal variability resulting from large scale climate patterns. This is problematic as extreme weather events and long-term climate risks such as droughts are typically conceptualized via measures such as return periods that implicitly assume non-stationarity. I briefly review these problems and present an application to the non-stationarity of droughts in the US Southwest. The US Southwest relies on annual precipitation maxima during winter and the North American Monsoon (NAM), both of which vary with large-scale climate patterns, in particular ENSO, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The latter two exhibit variability on longer (multi-decadal) time scales in addition to short-term variations. The region is also part of the subtropical belt projected to become more arid in a warming climate. The possible multidecadal impacts of the PDO on precipitation in the study region are analyzed with a focus on Arizona and New Mexico, using GPCC and CRU data since 1900. The projected impacts of the PDO on annual precipitation during the next three decades with GPCC data are similar in scale to the impacts of global warming on precipitation according to the A1B scenario and the CMIP2 multi-model means, while the combined impact of the PDO and AMO is about 19% larger. The effects according to the CRU dataset are about half as large as the projected global warming impacts. Given the magnitude of the projected impacts from both multidecadal variability and global warming, water management needs to explicitly incorporate both of these trends into long-term planning. Multi-decadal variability could be incorporated into the concept of return periods by presenting return periods as time-varying or as conditional on the respective 'phase' of relevant multidecadal patterns and on global warming. Problems in detecting the PDO signal and potential solutions are also discussed. We find that the long-term effect of the PDO can be more clearly separated from short-term variability by considering return periods of multi-year drought measures rather than return periods of simple drought measures that are more affected by short-term variations.

GENOME ENABLED ECOLOGY OF PSEUDO-NITZSCHIA INFECTING VIRUSES AND THEIR IMPACT ON PSEUDO-NITZSCHIA COMMUNITIES

EPA Science Inventory

With short infection cycles and large burst sizes (viruses per cell), the infection dynamics of diatom viruses appear to be optimized for rapidly growing diatom populations. On the timescale of bloom events, total Pseudo-nitzschia virus abundance should increase rapidly ove...

A pinch of salt goes a long way in communicating astronomy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manxoyi, S.

2008-06-01

The building of the Southern African Large Telescope not only revolutionised the methods of data collection in astronomy as a science in South Africa, but also changed the face, approach and impact of astronomy communication in our country. This presentation examines the various ways in which SALT has been supporting and continues to drive astronomy communication with the public. These include the following strands: learner activities, educator programmes, special events and national events as well general public programmes. The learner activities include SALT tours, space camps, stargazing, astronomy quiz, workshops, science clubs and job shadowing. The educators' strand includes workshops, projects, mini conferences, tours, team and co teaching. The public is catered for through special events, national events, exhibitions, star parties and festivals.

Aerobiology and the global transport of desert dust

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kellogg, Christina A.; Griffin, Dale W.

2006-01-01

Desert winds aerosolize several billion tons of soil-derived dust each year, including concentrated seasonal pulses from Africa and Asia. These transoceanic and transcontinental dust events inject a large pulse of microorganisms and pollen into the atmosphere and could therefore have a role in transporting pathogens or expanding the biogeographical range of some organisms by facilitating long-distance dispersal events. As we discuss here, whether such dispersal events are occurring is only now beginning to be investigated. Huge dust events create an atmospheric bridge over land and sea, and the microbiota contained within them could impact downwind ecosystems. Such dispersal is of interest because of the possible health effects of allergens and pathogens that might be carried with the dust.

Long-term records reveal decoupling of nitrogen and phosphorus cycles in a large, urban lake in response to an extreme rainfall event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corman, J. R.; Loken, L. C.; Oliver, S. K.; Collins, S.; Butitta, V.; Stanley, E. H.

2017-12-01

Extreme events can play powerful roles in shifting ecosystem processes. In lakes, heavy rainfall can transport large amounts of particulates and dissolved nutrients into the water column and, potentially, alter biogeochemical cycling. However, the impacts of extreme rainfall events are often difficult to study due to a lack of long-term records. In this paper, we combine daily discharge records with long-term lake water quality information collected by the North Temperate Lakes Long-Term Ecological Research (NTL LTER) site to investigate the impacts of extreme events on nutrient cycling in lakes. We focus on Lake Mendota, an urban lake within the Yahara River Watershed in Madison, Wisconsin, USA, where nutrient data are available at least seasonally from 1995 - present. In June 2008, precipitation amounts in the Yahara watershed were 400% above normal values, triggering the largest discharge event on record for the 40 years of monitoring at the streamgage station; hence, we are able to compare water quality records before and after this event as a case study of how extreme rain events couple or decouple lake nutrient cycling. Following the extreme event, the lake-wide mass of nitrogen and phosphorus increased in the summer of 2008 by 35% and 21%, respectively, shifting lake stoichiometry by increasing N:P ratios (Figure 1). Nitrogen concentrations remained elevated longer than phosphorus, suggesting (1) that nitrogen inputs into the lake were sustained longer than phosphorus (i.e., a "smear" versus "pulse" loading of nitrogen versus phosphorus, respectively, in response to the extreme event) and/or (2) that in-lake biogeochemical processing was more efficient at removing phosphorus compared to nitrogen. While groundwater loading data are currently unavailable to test the former hypothesis, preliminary data from surficial nitrogen and phosphorus loading to Lake Mendota (available for 2011 - 2013) suggest that nitrogen removal efficiency is less than phosphorus, supporting the latter hypothesis. As climate change is expected to increase the frequency of extreme events, continued monitoring of lakes is needed to understand biogeochemical responses and when and how water quality threats may occur.

Springtime extreme moisture transport into the Arctic and its impact on sea ice concentration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Wenchang; Magnusdottir, Gudrun

2017-05-01

Recent studies suggest that springtime moisture transport into the Arctic can initiate sea ice melt that extends to a large area in the following summer and fall, which can help explain Arctic sea ice interannual variability. Yet the impact from an individual moisture transport event, especially the extreme ones, is unclear on synoptic to intraseasonal time scales and this is the focus of the current study. Springtime extreme moisture transport into the Arctic from a daily data set is found to be dominant over Atlantic longitudes. Lag composite analysis shows that these extreme events are accompanied by a substantial sea ice concentration reduction over the Greenland-Barents-Kara Seas that lasts around a week. Surface air temperature also becomes anomalously high over these seas and cold to the west of Greenland as well as over the interior Eurasian continent. The blocking weather regime over the North Atlantic is mainly responsible for the extreme moisture transport, occupying more than 60% of the total extreme days, while the negative North Atlantic Oscillation regime is hardly observed at all during the extreme transport days. These extreme moisture transport events appear to be preceded by eastward propagating large-scale tropical convective forcing by as long as 2 weeks but with great uncertainty due to lack of statistical significance.

Analysis of convection-permitting simulations for capturing heavy rainfall events over Myanmar Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Acierto, R. A. E.; Kawasaki, A.

2017-12-01

Perennial flooding due to heavy rainfall events causes strong impacts on the society and economy. With increasing pressures of rapid development and potential for climate change impacts, Myanmar experiences a rapid increase in disaster risk. Heavy rainfall hazard assessment is key on quantifying such disaster risk in both current and future conditions. Downscaling using Regional Climate Models (RCM) such as Weather Research and Forecast model have been used extensively for assessing such heavy rainfall events. However, usage of convective parameterizations can introduce large errors in simulating rainfall. Convective-permitting simulations have been used to deal with this problem by increasing the resolution of RCMs to 4km. This study focuses on the heavy rainfall events during the six-year (2010-2015) wet period season from May to September in Myanmar. The investigation primarily utilizes rain gauge observation for comparing downscaled heavy rainfall events in 4km resolution using ERA-Interim as boundary conditions using 12km-4km one-way nesting method. The study aims to provide basis for production of high-resolution climate projections over Myanmar in order to contribute for flood hazard and risk assessment.

Global mortality from storm surges is decreasing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouwer, Laurens M.; Jonkman, Sebastiaan N.

2018-01-01

Changes in society’s vulnerability to natural hazards are important to understand, as they determine current and future risks, and the need to improve protection. Very large impacts including high numbers of fatalities occur due to single storm surge flood events. Here, we report on impacts of global coastal storm surge events since the year 1900, based on a compilation of events and data on loss of life. We find that over the past, more than eight thousand people are killed and 1.5 million people are affected annually by storm surges. The occurrence of very substantial loss of life (>10 000 persons) from single events has however decreased over time. Moreover, there is a consistent decrease in event mortality, measured by the fraction of exposed people that are killed, for all global regions, except South East Asia. Average mortality for storm surges is slightly higher than for river floods, but lower than for flash floods. We also find that for the same coastal surge water level, mortality has decreased over time. This indicates that risk reduction efforts have been successful, but need to be continued with projected climate change, increased rates of sea-level rise and urbanisation in coastal zones.

Utility of Continuous EEG Monitoring in Noncritically lll Hospitalized Patients.

PubMed

Billakota, Santoshi; Sinha, Saurabh R

2016-10-01

Continuous EEG (cEEG) monitoring is used in the intensive care unit (ICU) setting to detect seizures, especially nonconvulsive seizures and status epilepticus. The utility and impact of such monitoring in non-ICU patients are largely unknown. Hospitalized patients who were not in an ICU and underwent cEEG monitoring in the first half of 2011 and 2014 were identified. Reason for admission, admitting service (neurologic and nonneurologic), indication for cEEG, comorbid conditions, duration of recording, EEG findings, whether an event/seizure was recorded, and impact of EEG findings on management were reviewed. We evaluated the impact of the year of recording, admitting service, indication for cEEG, and neurologic comorbidity on the yield of recordings based on whether an event was captured and/or a change in antiepileptic drug management occurred. Two hundred forty-nine non-ICU patients had cEEG monitoring during these periods. The indication for cEEG was altered mental status (60.6%), observed seizures (26.5%), or observed spells (12.9%); 63.5% were on neuro-related services. The average duration of recording was 1.8 days. EEG findings included interictal epileptiform discharges (14.9%), periodic lateralized discharges (4%), and generalized periodic discharges (1.6%). Clinical events were recorded in 28.1% and seizures in 16.5%. The cEEG led to a change in antiepileptic drug management in 38.6% of patients. There was no impact of type of admitting service; there was no significant impact of indication for cEEG. In non-ICU patients, cEEG monitoring had a relatively high yield of event/seizures (similar to ICU) and impact on management. Temporal trends, admitting service, and indication for cEEG did not alter this.

Impact Constraints on the Age and Origin of the Crustal Dichotomy on Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frey, H. V.

2004-01-01

MOLA data have revealed a large population of "Quasi-Circular Depressions" (QCDs) with little or no visible expression in image data. These likely buried impact basins have important implications for the age of the lowland crust, how that compares with original highland crust, and when and how the crustal dichotomy may have formed. The buried lowlands are of Early Noachian age, likely slightly younger than the buried highlands but older than the exposed (visible) highland surface. A depopulation of large visible basins at diameters 800 to 1300 km suggests some global scale event early in martian history, maybe related to the formation of the lowlands andor the development of Tharsis. A suggested early disappearance of the global magnetic field can be placed within a temporal sequence of formation of the very largest impact basins. The global field appears to have disappeared at about the time the lowlands formed. It seems likely the topographic crustal dichotomy was produced very early in martian history by processes which operated very quickly. This and the preservation of large relic impact basins in the north- em hemisphere, which themselves can account for the lowland topography, suggest that large impacts played the major role in the origin Mars fundamental crustal feature.

Impact Constraints on the Age and Origin of the Crustal Dichotomy on Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frey, Herbert V.

2004-01-01

MOLA data have revealed a large population of 'Quasi-Circular Depressions' (QCDs) with little or no visible expression in image data. These likely buried impact basins have important implications for the age of the lowland crust, how that compares with original highland crust, and when and how the crustal dichotomy may have formed. The buried lowlands are of Early Noachian age, likely slightly younger than the buried highlands but older than the exposed (visible) highland surface. A depopulation of large visible basins at diameters 800 to 1300 km suggests some global scale event early in martian history, maybe related to the formation of the lowlands and/or the development of Tharsis. A suggested early disappearance of the global magnetic field can be placed within a temporal sequence of formation of the very largest impact basins. The global field appears to have disappeared at about the time the lowlands formed. It seems likely the topographic crustal dichotomy was produced very early in martian history by processes which operated very quickly. This and the preservation of large relic impact basins in the northern hemisphere, which themselves can account for the lowland topography, suggest that large impacts played the major role in the origin Mars fundamental crustal feature.

The Impact Hazard

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morrison, David

1994-01-01

The Earth has been subject to hypervelocity impacts from comets and asteroids since its formation, and such impacts have played an important role in the evolution of life on our planet. We now recognize not only the historical role of impacts, but the contemporary hazard posed by such events. In the absence of a complete census of potentially threatening Earth-crossing asteroids or comets (called collectively Near Earth Objects, or NEOs), or even of a comprehensive cur-rent search program to identify NEOs, we can consider the hazard only from a probabilistic perspective. We know the steep power-law relationship between NEO numbers and size, with many more small bodies than large ones. We also know that few objects less than about 50 m in diameter (with kinetic energy near 10 megatons) penetrate the atmosphere and are capable of doing surface damage. But there is a spectrum of possible impact hazards associated with objects from this 10-megaton threshold all the way up to NEOs 5 km or larger in diameter, which are capable of inflicting severe damage on the environment, leading to mass extinction's of species. Detailed analysis has shown that, in general, the larger the object the greater the hazard, even when allowance is made for the infrequency of large impacts. Most of the danger to human life is associated with impacts by objects roughly 2 km or larger (energy greater than 1 million megatons), which can inject sufficient submicrometer dust into the atmosphere to produce a severe short-term global cooling with subsequent loss of crops, leading to starvation. Hazard estimates suggest that the chance of such an event occurring during a human lifetime is about 1:5000, and the global probability of death from such impacts is of the order of 1:20000, values that can be compared with risks associated with other natural hazards such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and severe storms. However, the impact hazard differs from the others in that it can be largely prevented by a comprehensive survey for threatening objects and the application of technological solutions to deflect or destroy objects that are found to have orbits that will lead to collision with the Earth.

IS THE LARGE CRATER ON THE ASTEROID (2867) STEINS REALLY AN IMPACT CRATER?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Morris, A. J. W.; Price, M. C.; Burchell, M. J., E-mail: m.j.burchell@kent.ac.uk

The large crater on the asteroid (2867) Steins attracted much attention when it was first observed by the Rosetta spacecraft in 2008. Initially, it was widely thought to be unusually large compared to the size of the asteroid. It was quickly realized that this was not the case and there are other examples of similar (or larger) craters on small bodies in the same size range; however, it is still widely accepted that it is a crater arising from an impact onto the body which occurred after its formation. The asteroid (2867) Steins also has an equatorial bulge, usually consideredmore » to have arisen from redistribution of mass due to spin-up of the body caused by the YORP effect. Conversely, it is shown here that, based on catastrophic disruption experiments in laboratory impact studies, a similarly shaped body to the asteroid Steins can arise from the break-up of a parent in a catastrophic disruption event; this includes the presence of a large crater-like feature and equatorial bulge. This suggests that the large crater-like feature on Steins may not be a crater from a subsequent impact, but may have arisen directly from the fragmentation process of a larger, catastrophically disrupted parent.« less

Impact-induced melting and heating of planetary interiors - implications for the thermo-chemical evolution of planets and crystallization of magma oceans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wuennemann, K.; Manske, L.; Zhu, M.; Nakajima, M.; Breuer, D.; Schwinger, S.; Plesa, A. C.

2017-12-01

Large collisions and giant impact events play an important role in the thermo-chemical evolution of planets during their early and late accretion phases. Besides material that is delivered by differentiated and primitive projectiles a significant amount of the kinetic impact energy is transferred to the planets interior resulting in heating and widespread melting of matter. As a consequence, giant impacts are thought to form global magma oceans. The amount and distribution of impact-induced heating and melting has been previously estimated by scaling laws derived from small-scale impact simulations and experiments, simple theoretical considerations, and observations at terrestrial craters. We carried out a suite of numerical models using the iSALE shock physics code and an SPH code combined with the ANEOS package to investigate the melt production in giant impacts and planetary collision events as a function of impactor size and velocity, and the target temperature. Our results are consistent with previously derived scaling laws only for smaller impactors (<10 km in diameter), but significantly deviate for larger impactors: (1) for hot planets, where the temperature below the lithosphere lies close to the solidus temperature, the melt production is significantly increased for impactors comparable in the size to the depth of the lithosphere. The resulting crater structures would drown in their own melt and only large igneous provinces (local magma oceans) would remain visible at the surface;(2) even bigger impacts (planetary collisions) generate global magma oceans; (3) impacts into a completely solidified (cold) target result in more localized heating in comparison to impacts into a magma ocean, where the impact-induced heating is distributed over a larger volume. In addition, we investigate the influence of impacts on a cooling and crystallization of magma oceans and use the lunar magma ocean as an example.

Maturation of Structural Health Management Systems for Solid Rocket Motors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quing, Xinlin; Beard, Shawn; Zhang, Chang

2011-01-01

Concepts of an autonomous and automated space-compliant diagnostic system were developed for conditioned-based maintenance (CBM) of rocket motors for space exploration vehicles. The diagnostic system will provide real-time information on the integrity of critical structures on launch vehicles, improve their performance, and greatly increase crew safety while decreasing inspection costs. Using the SMART Layer technology as a basis, detailed procedures and calibration techniques for implementation of the diagnostic system were developed. The diagnostic system is a distributed system, which consists of a sensor network, local data loggers, and a host central processor. The system detects external impact to the structure. The major functions of the system include an estimate of impact location, estimate of impact force at impacted location, and estimate of the structure damage at impacted location. This system consists of a large-area sensor network, dedicated multiple local data loggers with signal processing and data analysis software to allow for real-time, in situ monitoring, and longterm tracking of structural integrity of solid rocket motors. Specifically, the system could provide easy installation of large sensor networks, onboard operation under harsh environments and loading, inspection of inaccessible areas without disassembly, detection of impact events and impact damage in real-time, and monitoring of a large area with local data processing to reduce wiring.

Intermittent Astrophysical Radiation Sources and Terrestrial Life

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melott, Adrian

2013-04-01

Terrestrial life is exposed to a variety of radiation sources. Astrophysical observations suggest that strong excursions in cosmic ray flux and spectral hardness are expected. Gamma-ray bursts and supernovae are expected to irradiate the atmosphere with keV to GeV photons at irregular intervals. Supernovae will produce large cosmic ray excursions, with time development varying with distance from the event. Large fluxes of keV to MeV protons from the Sun pose a strong threat to electromagnetic technology. The terrestrial record shows cosmogenic isotope excursions which are consistent with major solar proton events, and there are observations of G-stars suggesting that the rate of such events may be much higher than previously assumed. In addition there are unknown and unexplained astronomical transients which may indicate new classes of events. The Sun, supernovae, and gamma-ray bursts are all capable of producing lethal fluences, and some are expected on intervals of 10^8 years or so. The history of life on Earth is filled with mass extinctions at a variety of levels of intensity. Most are not understood. Astrophysical radiation may play a role, particularly from large increases in muon irradiation on the ground, and changes in atmospheric chemistry which deplete ozone, admitting increased solar UVB. UVB is strongly absorbed by DNA and proteins, and breaks the chemical bonds---it is a known carcinogen. High muon fluxes will also be damaging to such molecules, but experiments are needed to pin down the rate. Solar proton events which are not directly dangerous for the biota may nevertheless pose a major threat to modern electromagnetic technology through direct impact on satellites and magnetic induction of large currents in power grids, disabling transformers. We will look at the kind of events that are expected on timescales from human to geological, and their likely consequences.

Large-scale climatic anomalies affect marine predator foraging behaviour and demography.

PubMed

Bost, Charles A; Cotté, Cedric; Terray, Pascal; Barbraud, Christophe; Bon, Cécile; Delord, Karine; Gimenez, Olivier; Handrich, Yves; Naito, Yasuhiko; Guinet, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri

2015-10-27

Determining the links between the behavioural and population responses of wild species to environmental variations is critical for understanding the impact of climate variability on ecosystems. Using long-term data sets, we show how large-scale climatic anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere affect the foraging behaviour and population dynamics of a key marine predator, the king penguin. When large-scale subtropical dipole events occur simultaneously in both subtropical Southern Indian and Atlantic Oceans, they generate tropical anomalies that shift the foraging zone southward. Consequently the distances that penguins foraged from the colony and their feeding depths increased and the population size decreased. This represents an example of a robust and fast impact of large-scale climatic anomalies affecting a marine predator through changes in its at-sea behaviour and demography, despite lack of information on prey availability. Our results highlight a possible behavioural mechanism through which climate variability may affect population processes.

Large-scale climatic anomalies affect marine predator foraging behaviour and demography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bost, Charles A.; Cotté, Cedric; Terray, Pascal; Barbraud, Christophe; Bon, Cécile; Delord, Karine; Gimenez, Olivier; Handrich, Yves; Naito, Yasuhiko; Guinet, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri

2015-10-01

Determining the links between the behavioural and population responses of wild species to environmental variations is critical for understanding the impact of climate variability on ecosystems. Using long-term data sets, we show how large-scale climatic anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere affect the foraging behaviour and population dynamics of a key marine predator, the king penguin. When large-scale subtropical dipole events occur simultaneously in both subtropical Southern Indian and Atlantic Oceans, they generate tropical anomalies that shift the foraging zone southward. Consequently the distances that penguins foraged from the colony and their feeding depths increased and the population size decreased. This represents an example of a robust and fast impact of large-scale climatic anomalies affecting a marine predator through changes in its at-sea behaviour and demography, despite lack of information on prey availability. Our results highlight a possible behavioural mechanism through which climate variability may affect population processes.

Testing the sulfate-phosphorous hypothesis for initiation of the early Aptian OAE1a

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mills, J. V.; Gomes, M. L.; Sageman, B. B.; Hurtgen, M. T.

2012-12-01

Oceanic anoxic events (OAEs) were short-lived (<1-myr) episodes of widespread marine organic carbon burial and anoxia that occurred during the Mesozoic. Several hypotheses have been proposed to explain these intervals of increased organic carbon production and preservation, yet none have satisfactorily accounted for the short-term character and widespread effects of the events. Some recent work has focused on the role of sulfur in the initiation/termination mechanism of these events, specifically the potential impact of a large increase in marine sulfate levels upon a very low sulfate background. Previous authors have suggested that a large pulse of volcanic-derived sulfur could have initiated widespread anoxia through a positive feedback cycle of enhanced phosphorous recycling and increased primary production. In this model, a sudden pulse of sulfur upon a low sulfate background impacts the biogeochemical cycles of sulfur and iron, leading to an escalation in phosphorous (P) release from sediments during organic matter degradation. The resulting sulfate-P feedback cycle, recognized in modern lake systems, continues until sulfate levels are drawn down by pyrite burial, thus ending the anoxic event. To test this hypothesis, we examine sulfur and carbon isotopes through the early Aptian OAE1a (~120 Ma) from Resolution Guyot in the Mid-Pacific Mountains (ODP Site 866). We present sulfur isotope records of carbonate-associated sulfate (CAS), which provide a higher resolution record than other sulfate records (e.g. marine barites), to infer how sulfate concentrations changed through the event. A decrease of ~5 permil in the CAS sulfur isotope composition through the event suggests either that massive volcanism delivered 34S-depleted sulfate to the oceans and/or that large-scale evaporite (calcium sulfate) deposition forced a reduction in marine sulfate levels and associated rates of pyrite burial. These results will be discussed within the context of evolving δ34Spyrite values in order to better constrain the evolution of marine sulfate concentrations through this time period and evaluate the importance of the sulfate-P feedback mechanism in regulating OAE1a.

The Impact of a Large Object on Jupiter in 2009 July

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sanchez-Lavega, A.; Wesley, A.; Orton, G.; Hueso, R.; Perez-Hoyos, S.; Fletcher, L. N.; Yanamandra-Fisher, P.; Legarreta, J.; de Pater, I.; Hammel, H.;

A crater and its ejecta: An interpretation of Deep Impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holsapple, Keith A.; Housen, Kevin R.

2007-03-01

We apply recently updated scaling laws for impact cratering and ejecta to interpret observations of the Deep Impact event. An important question is whether the cratering event was gravity or strength-dominated; the answer gives important clues about the properties of the surface material of Tempel 1. Gravity scaling was assumed in pre-event calculations and has been asserted in initial studies of the mission results. Because the gravity field of Tempel 1 is extremely weak, a gravity-dominated event necessarily implies a surface with essentially zero strength. The conclusion of gravity scaling was based mainly on the interpretation that the impact ejecta plume remained attached to the comet during its evolution. We address that feature here, and conclude that even strength-dominated craters would result in a plume that appeared to remain attached to the surface. We then calculate the plume characteristics from scaling laws for a variety of material types, and for gravity and strength-dominated cases. We find that no model of cratering alone can match the reported observation of plume mass and brightness history. Instead, comet-like acceleration mechanisms such as expanding vapor clouds are required to move the ejected mass to the far field in a few-hour time frame. With such mechanisms, and to within the large uncertainties, either gravity or strength craters can provide the levels of estimated observed mass. Thus, the observations are unlikely to answer the questions about the mechanical nature of the Tempel 1 surface.

A crater and its ejecta: An interpretation of Deep Impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holsapple, Keith A.; Housen, Kevin R.

We apply recently updated scaling laws for impact cratering and ejecta to interpret observations of the Deep Impact event. An important question is whether the cratering event was gravity or strength-dominated; the answer gives important clues about the properties of the surface material of Tempel 1. Gravity scaling was assumed in pre-event calculations and has been asserted in initial studies of the mission results. Because the gravity field of Tempel 1 is extremely weak, a gravity-dominated event necessarily implies a surface with essentially zero strength. The conclusion of gravity scaling was based mainly on the interpretation that the impact ejecta plume remained attached to the comet during its evolution. We address that feature here, and conclude that even strength-dominated craters would result in a plume that appeared to remain attached to the surface. We then calculate the plume characteristics from scaling laws for a variety of material types, and for gravity and strength-dominated cases. We find that no model of cratering alone can match the reported observation of plume mass and brightness history. Instead, comet-like acceleration mechanisms such as expanding vapor clouds are required to move the ejected mass to the far field in a few-hour time frame. With such mechanisms, and to within the large uncertainties, either gravity or strength craters can provide the levels of estimated observed mass. Thus, the observations are unlikely to answer the questions about the mechanical nature of the Tempel 1 surface.

Root causes and impacts of severe accidents at large nuclear power plants.

PubMed

Högberg, Lars

2013-04-01

The root causes and impacts of three severe accidents at large civilian nuclear power plants are reviewed: the Three Mile Island accident in 1979, the Chernobyl accident in 1986, and the Fukushima Daiichi accident in 2011. Impacts include health effects, evacuation of contaminated areas as well as cost estimates and impacts on energy policies and nuclear safety work in various countries. It is concluded that essential objectives for reactor safety work must be: (1) to prevent accidents from developing into severe core damage, even if they are initiated by very unlikely natural or man-made events, and, recognizing that accidents with severe core damage may nevertheless occur; (2) to prevent large-scale and long-lived ground contamination by limiting releases of radioactive nuclides such as cesium to less than about 100 TBq. To achieve these objectives the importance of maintaining high global standards of safety management and safety culture cannot be emphasized enough. All three severe accidents discussed in this paper had their root causes in system deficiencies indicative of poor safety management and poor safety culture in both the nuclear industry and government authorities.

How did the AD 1755 tsunami impact on sand barriers across the southern coast of Portugal?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Costa, Pedro J. M.; Costas, Susana; González-Villanueva, R.; Oliveira, M. A.; Roelvink, D.; Andrade, C.; Freitas, M. C.; Cunha, P. P.; Martins, A.; Buylaert, J.-P.; Murray, A.

2016-09-01

Tsunamis are highly energetic events that may destructively impact the coast. Resolving the degree of coastal resilience to tsunamis is extremely difficult and sometimes impossible. In part, our understanding is constrained by the limited number of contemporaneous examples and by the high dynamism of coastal systems. In fact, long-term changes of coastal systems can mask the evidence of past tsunamis, leaving us a short or incomplete sedimentary archive. Here, we present a multidisciplinary approach involving sedimentological, geomorphological and geophysical analyses and numerical modelling of the AD 1755 tsunami flood on a coastal segment located within the southern coast of Portugal. In particular, the work focuses on deciphering the impact of the tsunami waves over a coastal sand barrier enclosing two lowlands largely inundated by the tsunami flood. Erosional features documented by geophysical data were assigned to the AD 1755 event with support of sedimentological and age estimation results. Furthermore, these features allowed the calibration of the simulation settings to reconstruct the local conditions and establish the run-up range of the AD 1755 tsunami when it hit this coast (6-8 m above mean sea level). Our work highlights the usefulness of erosional imprints preserved in the sediment record to interpret the impact of the extreme events on sand barriers.

The impact of the 2015-2016 El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event on greenhouse gas exchange and surface energy budget in an Indonesian oil palm plantation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stiegler, C.; Meijide, A.; June, T.; Knohl, A.

2016-12-01

Oil palm plantations cover a large fraction of tropical lowlands in Southeast Asia. However, despite their growing areal extent, measurements and observations of greenhouse gas exchange and surface energy balance are still scarce. In addition, the effects of extreme events such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on carbon sequestration and the partitioning of surface energy balance components are widely unknown. In this study, we use micrometeorological measurements located in commercial oil palm plantations in the Jambi province (Sumatra, Indonesia) to assess the impact of the 2015-2016 ENSO event on greenhouse gas exchange and surface energy budget. Measurements are in operation since July 2013 and we assess continuously turbulent fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO2), water vapour and sensible heat using the eddy covariance technique before, during and after the 2015-2016 ENSO event. The full surface energy budget is completed by measurements of radiative components, ground heat fluxes, and soil thermal and hydrological properties. The study is part of a large interdisciplinary project focussing on the ecological and socioeconomic functions of lowland rainforest transformation systems (EFForTS). During the ENSO event, the area experienced a strong drought with decreasing soil moisture and increasing air and surface temperatures. During the peak in September and October 2015, hundreds of fires in the area resulted in strong smoke production decreasing incoming solar radiation and increasing the diffuse fraction. Compared to regular years, the carbon uptake of the oil palm plantation decreased during the ENSO event. The turbulent heat fluxes experienced an increase in sensible heat fluxes due to drought conditions at the cost of latent heat fluxes resulting in an increase in the Bowen-ratio. Overall, the ENSO event resulted in a major anomaly of exchange processes between the oil palm plantation and the atmosphere.

Preliminary safety evaluation of an aircraft impact on a near-surface radioactive waste repository

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lo Frano, R.; Forasassi, G.; Pugliese, G.

2013-07-01

The aircraft impact accident has become very significant in the design of a nuclear facilities, particularly, after the tragic September 2001 event, that raised the public concern about the potential damaging effects that the impact of a large civilian airplane could bring in safety relevant structures. The aim of this study is therefore to preliminarily evaluate the global response and the structural effects induced by the impact of a military or commercial airplane (actually considered as a 'beyond design basis' event) into a near surface radioactive waste (RWs) disposal facility. The safety evaluation was carried out according to the Internationalmore » safety and design guidelines and in agreement with the stress tests requirements for the security track. To achieve the purpose, a lay out and a scheme of a possible near surface repository, like for example those of the El Cabril one, were taken into account. In order to preliminarily perform a reliable analysis of such a large-scale structure and to determine the structural effects induced by such a types of impulsive loads, a realistic, but still operable, numerical model with suitable materials characteristics was implemented by means of FEM codes. In the carried out structural analyses, the RWs repository was considered a 'robust' target, due to its thicker walls and main constitutive materials (steel and reinforced concrete). In addition to adequately represent the dynamic response of repository under crashing, relevant physical phenomena (i.e. penetration, spalling, etc.) were simulated and analysed. The preliminary assessment of the effects induced by the dynamic/impulsive loads allowed generally to verify the residual strength capability of the repository considered. The obtained preliminary results highlighted a remarkable potential to withstand the impact of military/large commercial aircraft, even in presence of ongoing concrete progressive failure (some penetration and spalling of the concrete wall) of the impacted area. (authors)« less

Geochemical evidence for a comet shower in the late Eocene

USGS Publications Warehouse

Farley, K.A.; Montanari, A.; Shoemaker, E.M.; Shoemaker, C.S.

1998-01-01

Analyses of pelagic limestones indicate that the flux of extraterrestrial helium-3 to Earth was increased for a 2.5-million year (My) period in the late Eocene. The enhancement began ~1 My before and ended ~1.5 My after the major impact events that produced the large Popigai and Chesapeake Bay craters ~36 million years ago. The correlation between increased concentrations of helium-3, a tracer of fine-grained interplanetary dust, and large impacts indicates that the abundance of Earth-crossing objects and dustiness in the inner solar system were simultaneously but only briefly enhanced. These observations provide evidence for a comet shower triggered by an impulsive perturbation of the Oort cloud.

Eyjafjallajökull and 9/11: The Impact of Large-Scale Disasters on Worldwide Mobility

PubMed Central

Woolley-Meza, Olivia; Grady, Daniel; Thiemann, Christian; Bagrow, James P.; Brockmann, Dirk

2013-01-01

Large-scale disasters that interfere with globalized socio-technical infrastructure, such as mobility and transportation networks, trigger high socio-economic costs. Although the origin of such events is often geographically confined, their impact reverberates through entire networks in ways that are poorly understood, difficult to assess, and even more difficult to predict. We investigate how the eruption of volcano Eyjafjallajökull, the September 11th terrorist attacks, and geographical disruptions in general interfere with worldwide mobility. To do this we track changes in effective distance in the worldwide air transportation network from the perspective of individual airports. We find that universal features exist across these events: airport susceptibilities to regional disruptions follow similar, strongly heterogeneous distributions that lack a scale. On the other hand, airports are more uniformly susceptible to attacks that target the most important hubs in the network, exhibiting a well-defined scale. The statistical behavior of susceptibility can be characterized by a single scaling exponent. Using scaling arguments that capture the interplay between individual airport characteristics and the structural properties of routes we can recover the exponent for all types of disruption. We find that the same mechanisms responsible for efficient passenger flow may also keep the system in a vulnerable state. Our approach can be applied to understand the impact of large, correlated disruptions in financial systems, ecosystems and other systems with a complex interaction structure between heterogeneous components. PMID:23950904

Adaptive Self-Tuning Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knox, H. A.; Draelos, T.; Young, C. J.; Lawry, B.; Chael, E. P.; Faust, A.; Peterson, M. G.

2015-12-01

The quality of automatic detections from seismic sensor networks depends on a large number of data processing parameters that interact in complex ways. The largely manual process of identifying effective parameters is painstaking and does not guarantee that the resulting controls are the optimal configuration settings. Yet, achieving superior automatic detection of seismic events is closely related to these parameters. We present an automated sensor tuning (AST) system that learns near-optimal parameter settings for each event type using neuro-dynamic programming (reinforcement learning) trained with historic data. AST learns to test the raw signal against all event-settings and automatically self-tunes to an emerging event in real-time. The overall goal is to reduce the number of missed legitimate event detections and the number of false event detections. Reducing false alarms early in the seismic pipeline processing will have a significant impact on this goal. Applicable both for existing sensor performance boosting and new sensor deployment, this system provides an important new method to automatically tune complex remote sensing systems. Systems tuned in this way will achieve better performance than is currently possible by manual tuning, and with much less time and effort devoted to the tuning process. With ground truth on detections in seismic waveforms from a network of stations, we show that AST increases the probability of detection while decreasing false alarms.

Ar-39-Ar-40 Ages of Euerites and the Thermal History of Asteroid 4-Vesta

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bogard, Donald D.; Garrison, Daniel H.

2002-01-01

Eucrite meteorites are igneous rocks that derive from a large asteroid, probably 4 Vesta. Prior studies have shown that after eucrites formed, most were subsequently metamorphosed to temperatures up to equal to or greater than 800 C, and much later many were brecciated and heated by large impacts into the parent body surface. The uncommon basaltic, unbrecciated eucrites also formed near the surface but presumably escaped later brecciation, whereas the cumulate eucrites formed at depth where metamorphism may have persisted for a considerable period. To further understand the complex HED parent body thermal history, we determined new Ar-39-Ar-40 ages for nine eucrites classified as basaltic but unbrecciated, six eucrites classified as cumulate, and several basaltic-brecciated eucrites. Relatively precise Ar-Ar ages of two cumulate eucrites (Moama and EET87520) and four unbrecciated eucrites give a tight cluster at 4.48 +/1 0.01 Gyr. Ar-Ar ages of six additional unbrecciated eucrites are consistent with this age, within their larger age uncertainties. In contrast, available literature data on Pb-Pb isochron ages of four cumulate eucrites and one unbrecciated eucrite vary over 4.4-4.515 Gyr, and Sm-147 - Nd-143 isochron ages of four cumulate and three unbrecciated eucrites vary over 4.41-4.55 Gyr. Similar Ar-Ar ages for cumulate and unbrecciated eucrites imply that cumulate eucrites do not have a younger formation age than basaltic eucrites, as previously proposed. Rather, we suggest that these cumulate and unbrecciated eucrites resided at depth where parent body temperatures were sufficiently high to cause the K-Ar and some other chronometers to remain open diffusion systems. From the strong clustering of Ar-Ar ages at approximately 4.48 Gyr, we propose that these meteorites were excavated from depth in a single large impact event approximately 4.48 Gyr ago, which quickly cooled the samples and started the K-Ar chronometer. A large (approximately 460 km) crater postulated to exist on Vesta may be the source of these eucrites and of many smaller asteroids thought to be spectrally or physically associated with Vesta. Some Pb-Pb and Sm-Nd ages of cumulate and unbrecciated eucrites are consistent with the 4.48 Gyr Ar-Ar age, and the few older Pb-Pb and Sm-Nd ages may reflect isotopic closure prior to the large cratering event. One cumulate eucrite gives an Ar-Ar age of 4.25 Gyr; three additional cumulate eucrites give Ar-Ar ages of 3.4-3.7 Gyr; and two unbrecciated eucrites give Ar-Ar ages of approximately 3.55 Gyr. We attribute these younger ages to later impact heating. In addition, we find Ar-Ar impact-reset ages of several brecciated eucrites and eucritic clasts in howardites to fall in the range of 3.5-4.1 Gyr. Among these, Piplia Kalan, the first eucrite to show evidence for extinct 26 Al, was strongly impact heated approximately3.5 Gyr ago. When these data are combined with eucrite Ar-Ar ages in the literature, they confirm the previous suggestion that several large impact heating events occurred on Vesta over the time period approximately 4.1-3.4 Gyr ago. The onset of major impact heating may have occurred at similar times for both Vesta and the Moon, but impact heating appears to have persisted to a somewhat later time on Vesta compared to the Moon.

The impact of continuity editing in narrative film on event segmentation.

PubMed

Magliano, Joseph P; Zacks, Jeffrey M

2011-01-01

Filmmakers use continuity editing to engender a sense of situational continuity or discontinuity at editing boundaries. The goal of this study was to assess the impact of continuity editing on how people perceive the structure of events in a narrative film and to identify brain networks that are associated with the processing of different types of continuity editing boundaries. Participants viewed a commercially produced film and segmented it into meaningful events, while brain activity was recorded with functional magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). We identified three degrees of continuity that can occur at editing locations: edits that are continuous in space, time, and action; edits that are discontinuous in space or time but continuous in action; and edits that are discontinuous in action as well as space or time. Discontinuities in action had the biggest impact on behavioral event segmentation, and discontinuities in space and time had minor effects. Edits were associated with large transient increases in early visual areas. Spatial-temporal changes and action changes produced strikingly different patterns of transient change, and they provided evidence that specialized mechanisms in higher order perceptual processing regions are engaged to maintain continuity of action in the face of spatiotemporal discontinuities. These results suggest that commercial film editing is shaped to support the comprehension of meaningful events that bridge breaks in low-level visual continuity, and even breaks in continuity of spatial and temporal location. Copyright © 2011 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Global Evidence for an End-Permian Mass Extinction Event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker, L.; Nicholson, C.; Poreda, R.; Basu, A.; Acampo, A.

2003-04-01

We will present the global evidence for a Permian-Triassic impact event and re-examine some of the structural, seismic, gravity and well data for a proposed impact crater, the Bedout High, offshore northwestern Australia (Gorter, PESA News pp. 33--34, 1996). Gorter (1996) speculates that the Bedout High is the uplifted core (30 km) of a circular feature, some 220 km across, formed by the impact of a large bolide (comet or asteroid) with the earth near the end-Permian (K-Ar dating of volcanics ˜253 +/- 5 Ma). Accepting a possible impact origin for the Bedout structure, with the indicated dimensions, would have had profound effects on global climate and significant changes in lithotratigraphic, biostratigraphic and chemo-stratigraphic indicators as seen in several Permian-Triassic locations worldwide. Evidence for an impact of extraterrestrial origin is based upon several impact tracers including shocked metamorphosed grains, productivity collapse, helium-3, Mossbauer spectroscopy on nanophase Fe material, noble gases in magnetic fines and fullerenes with trapped noble gases from some end-Permian sites. These findings suggest that the Bedout structure and a possible newly discovered (˜100 km) secondary crater may be good candidates for an oceanic/continental impact(s) at the end Permian, triggering the most severe mass extinction in the history of life on the Earth.

Assessing the influence of Environmental Impact Assessments on science and policy: an analysis of the Three Gorges Project.

PubMed

Tullos, Desiree

2009-07-01

The need to understand and minimize negative environmental outcomes associated with large dams has both contributed to and benefited from the introduction and subsequent improvements in the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) process. However, several limitations in the EIA process remain, including those associated with the uncertainty and significance of impact projections. These limitations are directly related to the feedback between science and policy, with information gaps in scientific understanding discovered through the EIA process contributing valuable recommendations on critical focus areas for prioritizing and funding research within the fields of ecological conservation and river engineering. This paper presents an analysis of the EIA process for the Three Gorges Project (TGP) in China as a case study for evaluating this feedback between the EIA and science and policy. For one of the best-studied public development projects in the world, this paper presents an investigation into whether patterns exist between the scientific interest (via number of publications) in environmental impacts and (a) the identification of impacts as uncertain or priority by the EIA, (b) decisions or political events associated with the dam, and (c) impact type. This analysis includes the compilation of literature on TGP, characterization of ecosystem interactions and responses to TGP through a hierarchy of impacts, coding of EIA impacts as "uncertain" impacts that require additional study and "priority" impacts that have particularly high significance, mapping of an event chronology to relate policies, institutional changes, and decisions about TGP as "events" that could influence the focus and intensity of scientific investigation, and analysis of the number of publications by impact type and order within the impact hierarchy. From these analyses, it appears that the availability and consistency of scientific information limit the accuracy of environmental impact projections. These analyses also suggest a lack of direct feedback between the EIA process and emerging science, as indicated by the failure of literature to focus on issues related to the design and management of TGP, ultimately challenging the environmental sustainability of the project. While the EIA process has enormous potential for improving both the basic sciences and the planning and sustainability of hydrodevelopment, important institutional changes need to occur for this potential to be realized. This paper concludes with recommendations about those institutional changes needed to improve the feedback between the science and policy, and ultimately the environmental sustainability, of large dams.

Design of the value of imaging in enhancing the wellness of your heart (VIEW) trial and the impact of uncertainty on power.

PubMed

Ambrosius, Walter T; Polonsky, Tamar S; Greenland, Philip; Goff, David C; Perdue, Letitia H; Fortmann, Stephen P; Margolis, Karen L; Pajewski, Nicholas M

2012-04-01

Although observational evidence has suggested that the measurement of coronary artery calcium (CAC) may improve risk stratification for cardiovascular events and thus help guide the use of lipid-lowering therapy, this contention has not been evaluated within the context of a randomized trial. The Value of Imaging in Enhancing the Wellness of Your Heart (VIEW) trial is proposed as a randomized study in participants at low intermediate risk of future coronary heart disease (CHD) events to evaluate whether CAC testing leads to improved patient outcomes. To describe the challenges encountered in designing a prototypical screening trial and to examine the impact of uncertainty on power. The VIEW trial was designed as an effectiveness clinical trial to examine the benefit of CAC testing to guide therapy on a primary outcome consisting of a composite of nonfatal myocardial infarction, probable or definite angina with revascularization, resuscitated cardiac arrest, nonfatal stroke (not transient ischemic attack (TIA)), CHD death, stroke death, other atherosclerotic death, or other cardiovascular disease (CVD) death. Many critical choices were faced in designing the trial, including (1) the choice of primary outcome, (2) the choice of therapy, (3) the target population with corresponding ethical issues, (4) specifications of assumptions for sample size calculations, and (5) impact of uncertainty in these assumptions on power/sample size determination. We have proposed a sample size of 30,000 (800 events), which provides 92.7% power. Alternatively, sample sizes of 20,228 (539 events), 23,138 (617 events), and 27,078 (722 events) provide 80%, 85%, and 90% power. We have also allowed for uncertainty in our assumptions by computing average power integrated over specified prior distributions. This relaxation of specificity indicates a reduction in power, dropping to 89.9% (95% confidence interval (CI): 89.8-89.9) for a sample size of 30,000. Samples sizes of 20,228, 23,138, and 27,078 provide power of 78.0% (77.9-78.0), 82.5% (82.5-82.6), and 87.2% (87.2-87.3), respectively. These power estimates are dependent on form and parameters of the prior distributions. Despite the pressing need for a randomized trial to evaluate the utility of CAC testing, conduct of such a trial requires recruiting a large patient population, making efficiency of critical importance. The large sample size is primarily due to targeting a study population at relatively low risk of a CVD event. Our calculations also illustrate the importance of formally considering uncertainty in power calculations of large trials as standard power calculations may tend to overestimate power.

Design of the Value of Imaging in Enhancing the Wellness of Your Heart (VIEW) Trial and the Impact of Uncertainty on Power

PubMed Central

Ambrosius, Walter T.; Polonsky, Tamar S.; Greenland, Philip; Goff, David C.; Perdue, Letitia H.; Fortmann, Stephen P.; Margolis, Karen L.; Pajewski, Nicholas M.

2014-01-01

Background Although observational evidence has suggested that the measurement of CAC may improve risk stratification for cardiovascular events and thus help guide the use of lipid-lowering therapy, this contention has not been evaluated within the context of a randomized trial. The Value of Imaging in Enhancing the Wellness of Your Heart (VIEW) trial is proposed as a randomized study in participants at low intermediate risk of future coronary heart disease (CHD) events to evaluate whether coronary artery calcium (CAC) testing leads to improved patient outcomes. Purpose To describe the challenges encountered in designing a prototypical screening trial and to examine the impact of uncertainty on power. Methods The VIEW trial was designed as an effectiveness clinical trial to examine the benefit of CAC testing to guide therapy on a primary outcome consisting of a composite of non-fatal myocardial infarction, probable or definite angina with revascularization, resuscitated cardiac arrest, non-fatal stroke (not transient ischemic attack (TIA)), CHD death, stroke death, other atherosclerotic death, or other cardiovascular disease (CVD) death. Many critical choices were faced in designing the trial, including: (1) the choice of primary outcome, (2) the choice of therapy, (3) the target population with corresponding ethical issues, (4) specifications of assumptions for sample size calculations, and (5) impact of uncertainty in these assumptions on power/sample size determination. Results We have proposed a sample size of 30,000 (800 events) which provides 92.7% power. Alternatively, sample sizes of 20,228 (539 events), 23,138 (617 events) and 27,078 (722 events) provide 80, 85, and 90% power. We have also allowed for uncertainty in our assumptions by computing average power integrated over specified prior distributions. This relaxation of specificity indicates a reduction in power, dropping to 89.9% (95% confidence interval (CI): 89.8 to 89.9) for a sample size of 30,000. Samples sizes of 20,228, 23,138, and 27,078 provide power of 78.0% (77.9 to 78.0), 82.5% (82.5 to 82.6), and 87.2% (87.2 to 87.3), respectively. Limitations These power estimates are dependent on form and parameters of the prior distributions. Conclusions Despite the pressing need for a randomized trial to evaluate the utility of CAC testing, conduct of such a trial requires recruiting a large patient population, making efficiency of critical importance. The large sample size is primarily due to targeting a study population at relatively low risk of a CVD event. Our calculations also illustrate the importance of formally considering uncertainty in power calculations of large trials as standard power calculations may tend to overestimate power. PMID:22333998

Potential benefits of underride guards in large truck side crashes.

PubMed

Brumbelow, Matthew L

2012-01-01

To evaluate the maximum potential for side underride guards (SUGs) to reduce passenger vehicle occupant fatalities and injuries in crashes with large trucks in the United States. Examination of the Large Truck Crash Causation Study (LTCCS) identified 206 crash events involving a passenger vehicle impact with the side of a large truck. Each case was evaluated to determine whether the most severe injury sustained by a passenger vehicle occupant was a result of the impact with the side of the truck and whether an SUG could have reduced the injury severity. Data from the 2006-2008 Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) and Trucks Involved in Fatal Accidents (TIFA) survey were used to compare the types of trucks involved in all fatal side impacts with passenger vehicles with the truck types in the LTCCS cases that were studied. FARS and TIFA data also were used to estimate the total annual number of passenger vehicle occupants killed in truck side impacts. In 143 of the 206 cases, the truck side impact produced the most severe injury sustained by a passenger vehicle occupant. In the other cases, no passenger vehicle occupant was injured or the most severe injury was due to an event preceding or following the truck side impact. Forty-nine of these occupants sustained injuries coded as level 3 or higher on the abbreviated injury scale (AIS) or were killed. SUGs could have reduced injury severity in 76 of the 143 cases, including 38 of the 49 cases with an AIS ≥ 3 coded injury or fatality. Semi-trailers were the most common type of impacted truck unit, both overall and when considering only cases where an SUG could have mitigated injury severity. Crashes where the front of the passenger vehicle struck the side of the semi-trailer perpendicularly or obliquely from the oncoming direction were less common overall than side-to-side and oblique/same direction crashes but more often produced an AIS ≥ 3 injury or fatality. The distribution of truck types in the LTCCS sample was similar to that in the FARS and TIFA data. Overall, around 1600 passenger vehicle occupants were killed in 2-vehicle truck side impact crashes during 2006-2008, or 22 percent of all passenger vehicle occupants who died in 2-vehicle crashes with large trucks. Structural incompatibility was a common factor in LTCCS crashes between passenger vehicles and the sides of large trucks. SUGs could have reduced injury risk in around three fourths of the crashes that produced an AIS ≥ 3 injury or fatality. Most of these crashes involved semi-trailers. However, the necessary strength and location of these SUGs present technical challenges that need to be addressed.

Mega Tsunamis of the World Ocean and Their Implication for the Tsunami Hazard Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gusiakov, V. K.

2014-12-01

Mega tsunamis are the strongest tsunamigenic events of tectonic origin that are characterized by run-up heights up to 40-50 m measured along a considerable part of the coastline (up to 1000 km). One of the most important features of mega-tsunamis is their ability to cross the entire oceanic basin and to cause an essential damage to its opposite coast. Another important feature is their ability to penetrate into the marginal seas (like the Sea of Okhotsk, the Bering Sea) and cause dangerous water level oscillations along the parts of the coast, which are largely protected by island arcs against the impact of the strongest regional tsunamis. Among all known historical tsunamis (nearly 2250 events during the last 4000 years) they represent only a small fraction (less than 1%) however they are responsible for more than half the total tsunami fatalities and a considerable part of the overall tsunami damage. The source of all known mega tsunamis is subduction submarine earthquakes with magnitude 9.0 or higher having a return period from 200-300 years to 1000-1200 years. The paper presents a list of 15 mega tsunami events identified so far in historical catalogs with their basic source parameters, near-field and far-field impact effects and their generation and propagation features. The far-field impact of mega tsunamis is largely controlled by location and orientation of their earthquake source as well as by deep ocean bathymetry features. We also discuss the problem of the long-term tsunami hazard assessment when the occurrence of mega tsunamis is taken into account.

Massive Statistics of VLF-Induced Ionospheric Disturbances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pailoor, N.; Cohen, M.; Golkowski, M.

2017-12-01

The impact of lightning of the D-region of the ionosphere has been measured by Very Low Frequency (VLF) remote sensing, and can be seen through the observance of Early-Fast events. Previous research has indicated that several factors control the behavior and occurrence of these events, including the transmitter-receiver geometry, as well as the peak current and polarity of the strike. Unfortunately, since each event is unique due to the wide variety of impacting factors, it is difficult to make broad inferences about the interactions between the lightning and ionosphere. By investigating a large database of lightning-induced disturbances over a span of several years and over a continental-scale region, we seek to quantify the relationship between geometry, lightning parameters, and the apparent disturbance of the ionosphere as measured with VLF transmitters. We began with a set of 860,000 cases where an intense lightning stroke above 150 kA occurred within 300 km of a transmiter-receiver path. To then detect ionospheric disturbances from the large volume of VLF data and lightning incidents, we applied a number of classification methods to the actual VLF amplitude data, and find that the most accurate is a convolutional neural network, which yielded a detection efficiency of 95-98%, and a false positive rate less than 25%. Using this model, we were able to assemble a database of more than 97,000 events, with each event stored with its corresponding time, date, receiver, transmitter, and lightning parameters. Estimates for the peak and slope of each disruption were also calculated. From this data, we were able to chart the relationships between geometry and lightning parameters (peak current and polarity) towards the occurrence probability, perturbation intensity, and recovery time, of the VLF perturbation. The results of this analysis are presented here.

Postfire seeding for erosion control: Effectiveness and impacts on native plant communities

Treesearch

Jan L. Beyers

2004-01-01

Abstract: Large, high-severity wildfires remove vegetation cover and expose mineral soil, ofen causing erosion and runoff during postfire rain events to increase dramatically. Land-management agencies in the United States are required to assess site conditions after wildfire and, where necessary, implement emergency watershed rehabilitation measures to help...

The fossil record of evolution: Analysis of extinction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Raup, D. M.

1986-01-01

There is increasing evidence that events in space have had direct effects on Earth history and on the history of life on Earth. Nowhere is this more evident than in mass extinction. The biosphere has undergone repeated devastation caused by relatively short-lived environmental stress, with species kill rates up to 80 and 95%. For five of the mass extinctions, geochemical or other evidence was reported suggesting large body impact as the cause of the environmental stress producing the extinctions. It was argued on statistical ground that the major extinction events are uniformly periodic in geological time. If it is true that large body impact is a principal cause of mass extinctions and if the periodicity is real, than a cosmic driving mechanism is inescapable. Paleontological data sets were developed which detail the ranges in geological time of about 4,000 families and 25,000 genera of fossil marine organisms. Analyses to date have concentrated on the most recent 250 million years. Associated with these studies are analyses of other aspects of Earth history which may have signatures indicative of extraterrestrial effects.

The impact of air pollutants on rainwater chemistry during "urban-induced heavy rainfall" in downtown Tokyo, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uchiyama, Ryunosuke; Okochi, Hiroshi; Katsumi, Naoya; Ogata, Hiroko

2017-06-01

In order to clarify the impact of air pollution on the formation of sudden and locally distributed heavy rain in urban areas (hereafter UHR = urban-induced heavy rain), we analyzed inorganic ions in rainwater samples collected on an event basis over 5 years from October 2012 to December 2016 in Shinjuku, Tokyo. Hourly rainfall amounts and wet deposition fluxes of acidic components (the sum of H+, NH4+, NO3-, and nonsea-salt SO42-) in UHR were 13.1 and 17.8 times larger than those in normal rainfall, respectively, indicating that large amount of air pollutants were scavenged and deposited by UHR with large amounts of rainfall. The level of air pollutants, such as NO2, SO2, and potential ozone, in the ambient air increased just before the formation of UHR and decreased sharply at the end of the UHR event. These results indicate that NO2, which was formed secondarily by oxidants, was further oxidized by HO radicals and formed HNO3 just before the formation of UHR, which was subsequently scavenged by UHR.

Analysis of the 2011 Mekong flood in Can Tho city

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Do, Thi-Chinh; Bubeck, Philip; Nguyen, Viet-Dung; Kreibich, Heidi

2014-05-01

Floods in the Mekong delta occur on a recurring basis during the flood season from July to November, and regular inundations of large areas are a prerequisite for the livelihoods of about 17 million people in the Vietnamese delta. At the same time, large-scale flood events above usual water levels pose a serious hazard that repeatedly caused severe economic damage and losses of life in past decades. The flood event in 2011 in the Mekong Delta heavily impacted Can Tho City and caused substantial damage to various economic sectors. Data from face to face interviews with 480 flood-affected households and 378 small businesses were analysed to gain detailed insights into flood preparedness, early warning, emergency measures, flood impacts and recovery before, during and after the 2011 flood in Can Tho city. Amongst other things, the findings reveal that damage to households is high, often exceeding the amount of several months of income, despite a relatively high level of preparedness. In terms of small businesses, it is found that higher losses indeed occur due to the disruption of production processes compared with direct damage.

Enriching Great Britain's National Landslide Database by searching newspaper archives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, Faith E.; Malamud, Bruce D.; Freeborough, Katy; Demeritt, David

2015-11-01

Our understanding of where landslide hazard and impact will be greatest is largely based on our knowledge of past events. Here, we present a method to supplement existing records of landslides in Great Britain by searching an electronic archive of regional newspapers. In Great Britain, the British Geological Survey (BGS) is responsible for updating and maintaining records of landslide events and their impacts in the National Landslide Database (NLD). The NLD contains records of more than 16,500 landslide events in Great Britain. Data sources for the NLD include field surveys, academic articles, grey literature, news, public reports and, since 2012, social media. We aim to supplement the richness of the NLD by (i) identifying additional landslide events, (ii) acting as an additional source of confirmation of events existing in the NLD and (iii) adding more detail to existing database entries. This is done by systematically searching the Nexis UK digital archive of 568 regional newspapers published in the UK. In this paper, we construct a robust Boolean search criterion by experimenting with landslide terminology for four training periods. We then apply this search to all articles published in 2006 and 2012. This resulted in the addition of 111 records of landslide events to the NLD over the 2 years investigated (2006 and 2012). We also find that we were able to obtain information about landslide impact for 60-90% of landslide events identified from newspaper articles. Spatial and temporal patterns of additional landslides identified from newspaper articles are broadly in line with those existing in the NLD, confirming that the NLD is a representative sample of landsliding in Great Britain. This method could now be applied to more time periods and/or other hazards to add richness to databases and thus improve our ability to forecast future events based on records of past events.

Periodic Comet Showers, Mass Extinctions, and the Galaxy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rampino, M. R.; Stothers, R. B.

2000-01-01

Geologic data on mass extinctions of life and evidence of large impacts on the Earth are thus far consistent with a quasi-periodic modulation of the flux of Oort cloud comets. Impacts of large comets and asteroids are capable of causing mass extinction of species, and the records of large impact craters and mass show a correlation. Impacts and extinctions display periods in the range of approximately 31 +/- 5 m.y., depending on dating methods, published time scales, length of record, and number of events analyzed. Statistical studies show that observed differences in the formal periodicity of extinctions and craters are to be expected, taking into consideration problems in dating and the likelihood that both records would be mixtures of periodic and random events. These results could be explained by quasi-periodic showers of Oort Cloud comets with a similar cycle. The best candidate for a pacemaker for comet showers is the Sun's vertical oscillation through the plane of the Galaxy, with a half-period over the last 250 million years in the same range. We originally suggested that the probability of encounters with molecular clouds that could perturb the Oort comet cloud and cause comet showers is modulated by the Sun's vertical motion through the galactic disk. Tidal forces produced by the overall gravitational field of the Galaxy can also cause perturbations of cometary orbits. Since these forces vary with the changing position of the solar system in the Galaxy, they provide a mechanism for the periodic variation in the flux of Oort cloud comets into the inner solar system. The cycle time and degree of modulation depend critically on the mass distribution in the galactic disk. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

The Bombardment History of 4 Vesta as Told by Sample Geochronology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cohen, B. A.

2014-01-01

The Dawn mission showed asteroid 4 Vesta to be an extensively cratered body, ancient in age, with craters in a variety of morphologies and preservation states [1-3]. Tying Vesta's relative crater ages to an absolute impact history can be accomplished through investigations of the HED (howardite, eucrite, diogenite) meteorites. Eucrites are crustal basalts and gabbros, diogenites are mostly orthopyroxenites representing lower crust or upper mantle materials, and howardites are mixed breccias containing both lithologies. Eucrite 53Mn-53Cr systematics show that the HED parent body globally differentiated by 4.56 Ga and fully crystallized soon afterwards [4]. Much later, many eucrites were brecciated and heated by large impacts into the parent body surface. Disturbance ages in eucrites show that multiple large impacts occurred within 1 Gyr after crystallization, showing a history that largely resembles that of the Moon [5-7]. Dawn images also showed that Vesta is covered with a well-developed regolith that is spectrally similar to howardite meteorites [8]. Howardites are polymict regolith breccias made up mostly of clasts of eucrites and diogenites, but which also contain clasts formed by melting of the regolith by relatively large, energetic impact events. Impact-melt clast ages from howardites extend our knowledge of the impact history of Vesta, expanding on eucrite disturbance ages and helping give absolute age context to the observed crater-counts produced using Dawn data. The distribution of 40Ar-39Ar ages of impact-melt clasts in howardites shows that they formed within the time period 3.3-3.8 Ga [9]. These, and other impact-melted HED materials, have distinct age and compositional characteristics that suggest they formed in discrete impact events. In order to create these crystalline impact-melt products on the surface of Vesta, the impacts during this time period must have had velocities much higher than 5 km/s, the main belt average [10]. This is inconsistent with formation by a normal distribution of impact velocities and points instead to a unique period where high-velocity collisions were more frequent than currently observed. Until now, impact-reset ages in the HED meteorites have been be interpreted under the umbrella of the canonical lunar cataclysm where an increase in the absolute number of bombarding objects is responsible for creating larger absolute amounts of impact-affected and impact-melted rocks, statistically increasing their chances of being found on Earth and dated. However, the distribution of age among the howardite impact-melt clasts may not necessarily result from an increased number of impacts, but rather result from impacts of higher velocity. The changeover from a typical main belt velocity profile to this regime of increased velocity population at Vesta occurs contemporaneously with a similar transition at the Moon, indicating that howardite impact-melt clast ages reinforce the notion of a dynamically unusual episode of bombardment in the inner solar system beginning at around 4.0 Ga.

New material model for simulating large impacts on rocky bodies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tonge, A.; Barnouin, O.; Ramesh, K.

2014-07-01

Large impact craters on an asteroid can provide insights into its internal structure. These craters can expose material from the interior of the body at the impact site [e.g., 1]; additionally, the impact sends stress waves throughout the body, which interrogate the asteroid's interior. Through a complex interplay of processes, such impacts can result in a variety of motions, the consequence of which may appear as lineaments that are exposed over all or portions of the asteroid's surface [e.g., 2,3]. While analytic, scaling, and heuristic arguments can provide some insight into general phenomena on asteroids, interpreting the results of a specific impact event, or series of events, on a specific asteroid geometry generally necessitates the use of computational approaches that can solve for the stress and displacement history resulting from an impact event. These computational approaches require a constitutive model for the material, which relates the deformation history of a small material volume to the average force on the boundary of that material volume. In this work, we present a new material model that is suitable for simulating the failure of rocky materials during impact events. This material model is similar to the model discussed in [4]. The new material model incorporates dynamic sub-scale crack interactions through a micro-mechanics-based damage model, thermodynamic effects through the use of a Mie-Gruneisen equation of state, and granular flow of the fully damaged material. The granular flow model includes dilatation resulting from the mutual interaction of small fragments of material (grains) as they are forced to slide and roll over each other and includes a P-α type porosity model to account for compaction of the granular material in a subsequent impact event. The micro-mechanics-based damage model provides a direct connection between the flaw (crack) distribution in the material and the rate-dependent strength. By connecting the rate-dependent failure behavior to the sub-scale flaw distribution in the material, we are able to investigate the effect of changing the assumed initial flaw population on an asteroid. Additionally, by simulating the naturally variable local flaw population in a body, we introduce macroscopic variability that is both physical and improves the numerical stability. We have implemented this material model using the Generalized Interpolated Material Point method (GIMP) within the Uintah computational framework [5]. GIMP is an updated Lagrangian formulation, which uses material points to track field quantities in the simulation and a background grid to solve the equations of motion. Since nodal quantities on the grid are mapped from the material points, the grid can be reset at the end of each timestep avoiding mesh entanglement errors associated with Lagrangian finite-element approaches. Since the material points always stay with the same block of material, this method is ideal for history-dependent damage models that are difficult to solve using Eulerian approaches. Finally, using a background grid simplifies the computation of gradients in the material and specifically eliminates the costly neighbor search step in pure particle methods such as SPH. The disadvantage of a background grid is that it must cover the entire simulation domain, not just the location where there is material. This is an acceptable trade-off, because, in our material model, most of the cost of the calculation is confined to the particles and updating the constitutive model. In this work, we demonstrate the strength of our modeling approach by simulating the impact history of Eros. We assume that Eros began as a solid shard of material, consistent with [3], and then simulate the series of impacts that could have formed the three major craters Himeros, Psyche, and Shoemaker. Work presented by Tonge et al. [6] demonstrated that this material model was able to explain the 20 percent porosity of (433) Eros from porosity produced during the formation of Himeros. Additionally, they showed that initial impacts into solid targets are more effective at creating porosity than later impacts into targets that have been significantly damaged. This modeling work suggests that the first large impact on a body like Eros is the most important impact for setting up the observed structure, and the subsequent impacts can make local modifications to the structure, but will not significantly alter the network of cracks developed by the initial impact event. Additional implications of the modeling work for our understanding of the tectonic history of Eros are discussed in the talk by O.S. Barnouin et al., ''The Tectonic Evolution of (433) Eros''.

Impacts of a water stress followed by an early frost event on beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) susceptibility to Scolytine ambrosia beetles - Research strategy and first results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

La Spina, Sylvie; de Cannière, Charles; Molenberg, Jean-Marc; Vincke, Caroline; Deman, Déborah; Grégoire, Jean-Claude

2010-05-01

Climate change tends to induce more frequent abiotic and biotic extreme events, having large impacts on tree vitality. Weakened trees are then more susceptible to secondary insect outbreaks, as it happened in Belgium in the early 2000s: after an early frost event, secondary Scolytine ambrosia beetles attacks were observed on beech trees. In this study, we test if a combination of stress, i.e. a soil water deficit preceding an early frost, could render trees more attractive to beetles. An experimental study was set in autumn 2008. Two parcels of a beech forest were covered with plastic tents to induce a water stress by rain interception. The parcels were surrounded by 2-meters depth trenches to avoid water supply by streaming. Soil water content and different indicators of tree water use (sap flow, predawn leaf water potential, tree radial growth) were followed. In autumn 2010, artificial frost injuries will be inflicted to trees using dry ice. Trees attractivity for Scolytine insects, and the success of insect colonization will then be studied. The poster will focus on experiment setting and first results (impacts of soil water deficit on trees).

Potential Climate Change Impacts on the Built Environment in the United States and Implications for Sustainability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quattrochi, D.

2012-12-01

The built environment consists of components that have been made by humans at a range of scales from small (e.g., houses, shopping malls) to large (e.g., transportation networks) to highly modified landscapes such as cities. The impacts of climate change on the built environment, therefore, may have a multitude of effects on humans and the land. The impact of climate change may be exacerbated by the interaction of different events that singly may be minor, but together may have a synergistic set of impacts that are significant. Also, there may be feedback mechanisms wherein the built environment, particularly in the form of cities, may affect weather and the climate on local and regional scales. Besides having a host of such interactions, the impacts of climate change on urban areas will likely have thresholds, below which effects are incidental or of mild consequence, but beyond which the effects quickly become major. Hence, a city may be able to cope with prolonged heat waves, but if this is combined with severe drought, the overall result could be significant or even catastrophic, as accelerating demand for energy to cooling taxes water supplies needed both for energy supply and municipal water needs. Moreover, urban areas may be affected by changes in daily and seasonal high or low temperatures or precipitation, which may have a much more prolonged impact than the direct effect of these events. Thus, the cumulative impacts of multiple events may be more severe than those of any single event. Primary hazards include sea level rise and coastal storms, heat waves, intense precipitation, drought, extreme wind events, urban heat islands, and secondary air pollutants, and cold air events including frozen precipitation. Indicators need to be developed to provide a consistent, objective, and transparent overview of major variations in climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation activities. Overall, indicators of climate change on the built environment should: 1) provide meaningful, authoritative climate-relevant measures about the status, rates, and trends of key physical, ecological, and societal variables and values to inform decisions on management, research, and education at regional to national scales; 2) identify climate-related conditions and impacts to help develop effective mitigation and adaptation measures and reduce costs of management; and 3) document and communicate the climate-driven dynamic nature and condition of Earth's systems and societies, and provide a coordinated. This presentation will provide an overview of possible climate impacts on the built environment. Also, given that spatial analysis and remote sensing techniques will be of paramount importance in assessing these impacts and in preparing adaptation strategies, the presentation will provide examples of how these techniques can be used to identify potential impacts of climate change on the built environment.

Impact of storms on coastlines: preparing for the future without forgetting the past? Examples from European coastlines using a Storm Impact Database

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciavola, Paolo; Garnier, Emmanuel; Ferreira, Oscar; Spencer, Thomas; Armaroli, Clara

2017-04-01

Severe storms have historically affected many European coastlines but the impact of each storm has been evaluated in different ways in different countries, often using local socio-economic impact criteria (e.g. loss of lives and damage to properties). Although the Xynthia (2010) storm, Atlantic coast of France, was the largest coastal disaster of the last 50 years, similar events have previously impacted Europe. The 1953 storm surge in the southern North Sea, resulted in over 2000 deaths and extensive flooding and was the catalyst for post WWII improvements in flood defences and storm early warning systems. On a longer timescale, the very extreme storm of 1634 AD re-configured Wadden Sea coastlines, accompanied by thousands of deaths. Establishing patterns of coastal risk and vulnerability is greatly helped by the use of historical sources, as these allow the development of more complete time series of storm events and their impacts. The work to be presented was supported by the EU RISC-KIT (Resilience-Increasing Strategies for Coasts - toolKIT) Project. RISC-KIT (http://www.risckit.eu/np4/home.html) is a EU FP7 Collaborative project that has developed methods, tools and management approaches to reduce risk and increase resilience to low frequency, high-impact hydro-meteorological events in the coastal zone. These products will enhance forecasting, prediction and early warning capabilities, improve the assessment of long-term coastal risk and optimize the mix of prevention, mitigation and preparedness measures. We analyse historical large-scale events occurred from The Middle Ages to the 1960s at the case study sites of North Norfolk Coast (UK), the Charente-Maritime and Vendée coast (France), the Cinque Terre-Liguria (Italy), the Emilia-Romagna coast (Italy), and the Ria Formosa coast (Portugal). The work presented here uses a database of events built by the project, examining records for the last 300 years, including the characteristics of the storms as well as recorded losses. Finally, lessons learned will be presented, understanding the interaction between DRR elements such as prevention, resilience, mitigation and preparedness. The project's database is publicly available (http://risckit.cloudapp.net/risckit/#/)

Critical Assessment of the Foundations of Power Transmission and Distribution Reliability Metrics and Standards.

PubMed

Nateghi, Roshanak; Guikema, Seth D; Wu, Yue Grace; Bruss, C Bayan

2016-01-01

The U.S. federal government regulates the reliability of bulk power systems, while the reliability of power distribution systems is regulated at a state level. In this article, we review the history of regulating electric service reliability and study the existing reliability metrics, indices, and standards for power transmission and distribution networks. We assess the foundations of the reliability standards and metrics, discuss how they are applied to outages caused by large exogenous disturbances such as natural disasters, and investigate whether the standards adequately internalize the impacts of these events. Our reflections shed light on how existing standards conceptualize reliability, question the basis for treating large-scale hazard-induced outages differently from normal daily outages, and discuss whether this conceptualization maps well onto customer expectations. We show that the risk indices for transmission systems used in regulating power system reliability do not adequately capture the risks that transmission systems are prone to, particularly when it comes to low-probability high-impact events. We also point out several shortcomings associated with the way in which regulators require utilities to calculate and report distribution system reliability indices. We offer several recommendations for improving the conceptualization of reliability metrics and standards. We conclude that while the approaches taken in reliability standards have made considerable advances in enhancing the reliability of power systems and may be logical from a utility perspective during normal operation, existing standards do not provide a sufficient incentive structure for the utilities to adequately ensure high levels of reliability for end-users, particularly during large-scale events. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Evaluating 20th Century precipitation characteristics between multi-scale atmospheric models with different land-atmosphere coupling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phillips, M.; Denning, A. S.; Randall, D. A.; Branson, M.

2016-12-01

Multi-scale models of the atmosphere provide an opportunity to investigate processes that are unresolved by traditional Global Climate Models while at the same time remaining viable in terms of computational resources for climate-length time scales. The MMF represents a shift away from large horizontal grid spacing in traditional GCMs that leads to overabundant light precipitation and lack of heavy events, toward a model where precipitation intensity is allowed to vary over a much wider range of values. Resolving atmospheric motions on the scale of 4 km makes it possible to recover features of precipitation, such as intense downpours, that were previously only obtained by computationally expensive regional simulations. These heavy precipitation events may have little impact on large-scale moisture and energy budgets, but are outstanding in terms of interaction with the land surface and potential impact on human life. Three versions of the Community Earth System Model were used in this study; the standard CESM, the multi-scale `Super-Parameterized' CESM where large-scale parameterizations have been replaced with a 2D cloud-permitting model, and a multi-instance land version of the SP-CESM where each column of the 2D CRM is allowed to interact with an individual land unit. These simulations were carried out using prescribed Sea Surface Temperatures for the period from 1979-2006 with daily precipitation saved for all 28 years. Comparisons of the statistical properties of precipitation between model architectures and against observations from rain gauges were made, with specific focus on detection and evaluation of extreme precipitation events.

On the globality of motor suppression: unexpected events and their influence on behavior and cognition

PubMed Central

Wessel, Jan R.; Aron, Adam R.

2016-01-01

SUMMARY Unexpected events are part of everyday experience. They come in several varieties – action errors, unexpected action outcomes, and unexpected perceptual events – and they lead to motor slowing and cognitive distraction. While different varieties of unexpected events have been studied largely independently, and many different mechanisms are thought to explain their effects on action and cognition, we suggest a unifying theory. We propose that unexpected events recruit a fronto-basal-ganglia network for stopping. This network includes specific prefrontal cortical nodes and is posited to project to the subthalamic nucleus, with a putative global suppressive effect on basal-ganglia output. We argue that unexpected events interrupt action and impact cognition, partly at least, by recruiting this global suppressive network. This provides a common mechanistic basis for different types of unexpected events, links the literatures on motor inhibition, performance-monitoring, attention, and working memory, and is relevant for understanding clinical symptoms of distractibility and mental inflexibility. PMID:28103476

On the Globality of Motor Suppression: Unexpected Events and Their Influence on Behavior and Cognition.

PubMed

Wessel, Jan R; Aron, Adam R

2017-01-18

Unexpected events are part of everyday experience. They come in several varieties-action errors, unexpected action outcomes, and unexpected perceptual events-and they lead to motor slowing and cognitive distraction. While different varieties of unexpected events have been studied largely independently, and many different mechanisms are thought to explain their effects on action and cognition, we suggest a unifying theory. We propose that unexpected events recruit a fronto-basal-ganglia network for stopping. This network includes specific prefrontal cortical nodes and is posited to project to the subthalamic nucleus, with a putative global suppressive effect on basal-ganglia output. We argue that unexpected events interrupt action and impact cognition, partly at least, by recruiting this global suppressive network. This provides a common mechanistic basis for different types of unexpected events; links the literatures on motor inhibition, performance monitoring, attention, and working memory; and is relevant for understanding clinical symptoms of distractibility and mental inflexibility. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

North American Extreme Temperature Events and Related Large Scale Meteorological Patterns: A Review of Statistical Methods, Dynamics, Modeling, and Trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grotjahn, Richard; Black, Robert; Leung, Ruby; Wehner, Michael F.; Barlow, Mathew; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Gershunov, Alexander; Gutowski, William J., Jr.; Gyakum, John R.; Katz, Richard W.;

Human Impact on the Geomorphological Evolution of the Opak River Following the 2010 Large Volcanic Event of the Merapi (Indonesia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gob, F.; Gautier, E.; Virmoux, C.; Grancher, D.; Tamisier, V.; Primanda, K. W.; Wibowo, S. B.

2016-12-01

During large eruptions, active volcanos may introduce very large quantities of sediment to the drainage system through tephra falls and pyroclastic flows, thus modifying the river system. Once remobilized, the sediment inputs propagate downstream as a sediment wave modifying the channel geometry of the river and reloading the sediment cascade of the catchments. Considering the extreme nature of the volcanic events, the parameters that control the post-eruption evolution of the river system are generally only described as natural and the role played by human activities seems negligible. Communities that live on the volcano slopes and foothills are rather considered to suffer from natural disasters associated with the eruption and its consequences (lahars, etc.) or take advantage of the benefits of the volcanic environment (rich soil, mining and geothermal resources, etc.). This study examines the impact of human influence on the fluvial readjustment of a Javanese river impacted by a major eruption of the Merapi volcano (Indonesia) in October/November 2010. The basin of the Opak River was subject to substantial sediment input related to massive pyroclastic deposits that were remobilized by numerous lahars during the year after the eruption. Two study sites were equipped in order to evaluate the morphodynamic evolution of the riverbed of the Opak River. Topographic surveys, bedload particle marking and suspended sediment sampling revealed an important sediment mobilization during efficient flash-floods. Surprisingly, no bed aggradation related to the progradation of a sediment wave was observed. Two years after the eruptive event, marked bed incision was observed. The Opak River readjustment differs from that of other fluvial systems affected by massive eruptions in two ways. Firstly, the local population massively extracted the sand and blocks injected by the eruption as they represent a valuable economic resource. Secondly, several dams trapped the major part of the sediment load remobilized by lahars.

Leveraging Data Intensive Computing to Support Automated Event Services

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clune, Thomas L.; Freeman, Shawn M.; Kuo, Kwo-Sen

2012-01-01

A large portion of Earth Science investigations is phenomenon- or event-based, such as the studies of Rossby waves, mesoscale convective systems, and tropical cyclones. However, except for a few high-impact phenomena, e.g. tropical cyclones, comprehensive records are absent for the occurrences or events of these phenomena. Phenomenon-based studies therefore often focus on a few prominent cases while the lesser ones are overlooked. Without an automated means to gather the events, comprehensive investigation of a phenomenon is at least time-consuming if not impossible. An Earth Science event (ES event) is defined here as an episode of an Earth Science phenomenon. A cumulus cloud, a thunderstorm shower, a rogue wave, a tornado, an earthquake, a tsunami, a hurricane, or an EI Nino, is each an episode of a named ES phenomenon," and, from the small and insignificant to the large and potent, all are examples of ES events. An ES event has a finite duration and an associated geolocation as a function of time; its therefore an entity in four-dimensional . (4D) spatiotemporal space. The interests of Earth scientists typically rivet on Earth Science phenomena with potential to cause massive economic disruption or loss of life, but broader scientific curiosity also drives the study of phenomena that pose no immediate danger. We generally gain understanding of a given phenomenon by observing and studying individual events - usually beginning by identifying the occurrences of these events. Once representative events are identified or found, we must locate associated observed or simulated data prior to commencing analysis and concerted studies of the phenomenon. Knowledge concerning the phenomenon can accumulate only after analysis has started. However, except for a few high-impact phenomena. such as tropical cyclones and tornadoes, finding events and locating associated data currently may take a prohibitive amount of time and effort on the part of an individual investigator. And even for these high-impact phenomena, the availability of comprehensive records is still only a recent development. A major reason for the lack of comprehensive ,records for the majority of the ES phenomena is the perception that they do not pose immediate and/or severe threat to life and property and are thus not consistently tracked. monitored, and catalogued. Many phenomena even lack commonly accepted criteria for definitions. However. the lack of comprehensive records is also due to the increasingly prohibitive volume of observations and model data that must be examined. NASA Earth Observing System Data Information System (EOSDIS) alone archives several petabytes (PB) of satellite remote sensing data and steadily increases. All of these factors contribute to the difficulty of methodically identifying events corresponding to a given phenomenon and significantly impede systematic investigations. In the following we present a couple motivating scenarios, demonstrating the issues faced by Earth scientists studying ES phenomena.

A Comparison of Slow Slip Events at Etna and Kilauea Volcanoes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mattia, M.; Montgomery-Brown, E. K.; Bruno, V.; Scandura, D.

2016-12-01

Mt. Etna and Kilauea Volcano are both large basaltic volcanoes with unstable flanks, on which slow slip events have been observed by continuous GPS networks. The slow slip events (SSEs) last about two days at both volcanoes, although there are some differences in the depths and frequencies. While recurrence intervals were initially somewhat irregular at Kilauea, the most recent 5 events have become more regular with an inter-event time of about 2.4 years. At Mt. Etna, these events seem to be more frequent (about 2 per year) and are often related to the main recharge phases of the volcano. Ground deformation data have been used on both volcanoes for determining the source of the anomalous displacements and, from this point of view, the two volcanoes seem very different. Although slow slip events at Mt. Etna and Kilauea are much shallower than many subduction zone slow slip events, slip at Kilauea occurs on a discrete decollement at about 8 km deep. At Mt. Etna, a variety of data suggest that the sliding could be much shallower and more diffuse. In this work, we show some preliminary results of a "block-like" model of Mt. Etna's slow slip events that is able to explain the source of the flank displacements with slip on the Giarre Wedge near the coast. This work will allow a possible classification of different types of slip events affecting the flanks of large basaltic volcanoes, often densely populated, with a significant impact on the evaluation of seismic and volcanic hazard.

Environmental impact assessments of the Xiaolangdi Reservoir on the most hyperconcentrated laden river, Yellow River, China.

PubMed

Kong, Dongxian; Miao, Chiyuan; Wu, Jingwen; Borthwick, Alistair G L; Duan, Qingyun; Zhang, Xiaoming

2017-02-01

The Yellow River is the most hyperconcentrated sediment-laden river in the world. Throughout recorded history, the Lower Yellow River (LYR) experienced many catastrophic flood and drought events. To regulate the LYR, a reservoir was constructed at Xiaolangdi that became operational in the early 2000s. An annual water-sediment regulation scheme (WSRS) was then implemented, aimed at flood control, sediment reduction, regulated water supply, and power generation. This study examines the eco-environmental and socioenvironmental impacts of Xiaolangdi Reservoir. In retrospect, it is found that the reservoir construction phase incurred huge financial cost and required large-scale human resettlement. Subsequent reservoir operations affected the local geological environment, downstream riverbed erosion, evolution of the Yellow River delta, water quality, and aquatic biodiversity. Lessons from the impact assessment of the Xiaolangdi Reservoir are summarized as follows: (1) The construction of large reservoirs is not merely an engineering challenge but must also be viewed in terms of resource exploitation, environmental protection, and social development; (2) long-term systems for monitoring large reservoirs should be established, and decision makers involved at national policy and planning levels must be prepared to react quickly to the changing impact of large reservoirs; and (3) the key to solving sedimentation in the LYR is not Xiaolangdi Reservoir but instead soil conservation in the middle reaches of the Yellow River basin. Proper assessment of the impacts of large reservoirs will help promote development strategies that enhance the long-term sustainability of dam projects.

The 40Ar/39Ar dating technique applied to planetary sciences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jourdan, F.

2012-12-01

The 40Ar/39Ar technique is a powerful geochronological method that can help to unravel the evolution of the solar system. The 40Ar/39Ar system can not only record the timing of volcanic and metamorphic processes on asteroids and planets, it finds domain of predilection in dating impact events throughout the solar system. However, the 40Ar/39Ar method is a robust analytical technique if, and only if, the events to be dated are well understood and data are not over interpreted. Yet, too many 'ages' reported in the literature are still based on over-interpretation of perturbed age spectra which tends to blur the big picture. This presentation is centred on the most recent applications of the 40Ar/39Ar technique applied to planetary material and through several examples, will attempt to demonstrate the benefit of focusing on statistically robust data. For example, 40Ar/39Ar dating of volcanic events on the Moon suggests that volcanism was mostly concentrated between ca. 3.8 and 3.1 Ga but statistical filtering of the data allow identifying a few well-defined eruptive events. The study of lunar volcanism would also benefit from dating of volcanic spherules. Rigorous filtering of the 40Ar/39Ar age database of lunar melt breccias yielded concordant and ages with high precision for two major basins (i.e. Imbrium & Serenitatis) of the Moon. 40Ar/39Ar dating of lunar impact spherules recovered from four different sites and with high- and low-K compositions shows an increase of ages younger than 400 Ma suggesting a recent increase in the impact flux. The impact history of the LL parent body (bodies?) has yet to be well constrained but may mimic the LHB observed on the Moon, which would indicate that the LL parent body was quite large. 40Ar/39Ar dating (in progress) of grains from the asteroid Itokawa recovered by the japanese Hayabusa mission have the potential to constrain the formation history and exposure age of Itokawa and will allow us to compare the results with the impact history recorded by LL chondrites. Basaltic meteorites (HEDs) show a 40Ar/39Ar age range between 4.1 and 3.4 Ga, suggesting a diffuse LHB event; however, the spread of apparent ages may be a data interpretation artefact, as new solid plateau age data suggest that the bombardment by large asteroids might have occurred over a briefer period between 3.5 and 3.8 Ga.

On extreme events for non-spatial and spatial branching Brownian motions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avan, Jean; Grosjean, Nicolas; Huillet, Thierry

2015-04-01

We study the impact of having a non-spatial branching mechanism with infinite variance on some parameters (height, width and first hitting time) of an underlying Bienaymé-Galton-Watson branching process. Aiming at providing a comparative study of the spread of an epidemics whose dynamics is given by the modulus of a branching Brownian motion (BBM) we then consider spatial branching processes in dimension d, not necessarily integer. The underlying branching mechanism is either a binary branching model or one presenting infinite variance. In particular we evaluate the chance p(x) of being hit if the epidemics started away at distance x. We compute the large x tail probabilities of this event, both when the branching mechanism is regular and when it exhibits very large fluctuations.

Exploring Tectonic Activity on Vesta and Ceres

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buczkowski, D.; Scully, J. E. C.; Raymond, C. A.; Russell, C. T.

2017-12-01

Images of Vesta and Ceres taken by the Dawn spacecraft revealed large-scale linear structural features on both asteroids. We evaluate their morphology to determine 1) what processes caused them to form and 2) what implications this has for the history of Vesta and Ceres as planetary bodies. The Divalia Fossae are wide troughs bounded by steep scarps that encircle Vesta roughly aligned with the equator. Fault plane analysis suggests that their formation was triggered by the impact event that formed the Rheasilvia basin. The Saturnalia Fossae extend from Divalia to the northern polar region; fault plane analysis ties their formation to the Veneneia basin impact event. Also, it has been suggested that the elongate hill Brumalia Tholus could have been formed as a magmatic intrusion utilizing the subsurface Albalonga fracture as a conduit to the surface, intruding into and deforming the rock above it. Kilometer-scale linear structures cross much of the eastern hemisphere of Ceres. Many structures appear to be radial to the large craters Urvara and Yalode, and likely formed due to impact processes. However, the Samhain Catenae do not have any obvious relationship to a crater and the lack of raised rims makes it unlikely that these are secondary impacts; they are also crosscut by linear features radial to Urvara and Yalode, indicating they are not fractures formed during those impact events. Instead, the morphology of these structures more closely resembles that of pit crater chains (buried normal faults), and show en echelon orientation and S-shaped linkages. Polygonal craters, which form where there is pervasive subsurface fracturing, are widespread on Ceres, and those polygonal craters proximal to the Samhain Catenae have straight crater rims aligned with the structures. Several craters on Ceres have fractured floors, similar to lunar floor-fractured craters (FFCs), which are theorized to form from floor uplift due to magmatic intrusion. Large (>50 km) Ceres FFCs can have both radial and concentric fractures at the crater center, and/or concentric fractures near the crater wall. Smaller craters have a v-shaped moat separating the wall scarp from the crater interior, but different interior morphologies. A depth vs. diameter analysis shows that the Ceres FFCs are unusually shallow, consistent with the magmatic intrusion models.

How Unusual Was The Storm Surge Season Of 2013-14 in the UK?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haigh, I. D.; Wadey, M.; Gallop, S. L.; Nicholls, R. J.; Horsburgh, K.

2014-12-01

When significant coastal flooding occurs along low-lying, highly populated, and/or developed coastlines, the impacts can be devastating and long lasting with wide ranging social, economic, and environmental consequences. The UK has a long history of severe coastal flooding, with major events including those that occurred in 1607, 1703 and 1953. The problems associated with coastal flooding again reached the forefront during the latest winter of 2013-2014 when the UK experienced a series of very severe events. What is noteworthy about this most recent winter period is the: (1) large number of significantly coastal flooding events occurring one after another over a relatively short period of time; and (2) the large areas of coastline affected. Extreme events are rarely assessed in terms of 'clustering', despite the fact this leads to amplified flood damages. The spatial dependence in flood hazard (i.e. simultaneous flooding in multiple locations) is now receiving more attention, motivated by concern from re-insurance, infrastructure reliability and emergency response, but understanding in this area is still limited. In this paper we assess extreme high water events and their temporal clustering and footprint around the UK, using records from the UK national network of 40 tide gauges, the longest of which extends back 100 years. We identify 100 distinct events, during which water levels exceeded the 1 in 5 year return period. We examine these events in detail and assess the coastal flooding that occurred during each event.

Impacts on Coralligenous Outcrop Biodiversity of a Dramatic Coastal Storm

PubMed Central

Teixidó, Núria; Casas, Edgar; Cebrián, Emma; Linares, Cristina; Garrabou, Joaquim

2013-01-01

Extreme events are rare, stochastic perturbations that can cause abrupt and dramatic ecological change within a short period of time relative to the lifespan of organisms. Studies over time provide exceptional opportunities to detect the effects of extreme climatic events and to measure their impacts by quantifying rates of change at population and community levels. In this study, we show how an extreme storm event affected the dynamics of benthic coralligenous outcrops in the NW Mediterranean Sea using data acquired before (2006–2008) and after the impact (2009–2010) at four different sites. Storms of comparable severity have been documented to occur occasionally within periods of 50 years in the Mediterranean Sea. We assessed the effects derived from the storm comparing changes in benthic community composition at sites exposed to and sheltered from this extreme event. The sites analyzed showed different damage from severe to negligible. The most exposed and impacted site experienced a major shift immediately after the storm, represented by changes in the species richness and beta diversity of benthic species. This site also showed higher compositional variability immediately after the storm and over the following year. The loss of cover of benthic species resulted between 22% and 58%. The damage across these species (e.g. calcareous algae, sponges, anthozoans, bryozoans, tunicates) was uneven, and those with fragile forms were the most impacted, showing cover losses up to 50 to 100%. Interestingly, small patches survived after the storm and began to grow slightly during the following year. In contrast, sheltered sites showed no significant changes in all the studied parameters, indicating no variations due to the storm. This study provides new insights into the responses to large and rare extreme events of Mediterranean communities with low dynamics and long-lived species, which are among the most threatened by the effects of global change. PMID:23326496

Origin of the Martian global dichotomy by crustal thinning in the late Noachian or early Hesperian

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcgill, George E.; Dimitriou, Andrew M.

1990-01-01

The marked dichotomy in topography, surface age, and crustal thickness between the northern lowland (NL) and southern upland of Mars has been explained as due to an initially inhomogeneous crust, a single megaimpact event, several overlapping large basin impacts, and first-order convective overtum of the Martian mantle. All of these hypotheses propose that the dichotomy was formed before the end of the primordial heavy bombardment. Geological data indicate episodes of fracturing and faulting in the late Noachian and the early Hesperian, within the NL and along the lowland/highland boundary. Igneous activity also peaked in the late Noachian and early Hesperian. These data suggest a tectonic event near the Noachian/Hesperian boundary characterized by enhanced heat loss and extensive fracturing, including formation of the faults that define much of the highland/lowland boundary. It is argued that the major result of this tectonic event was formation of the dichotomy by thinning of the crust above a large convection cell or plume.

Extreme Urban Stargazing: Outreach in New York City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kendall, Jason S.

2013-01-01

There is a fundamental need for the professional community to cultivate and nurture active relationships with amateur organizations. The rewards of such work are highly beneficial to general public education and town-gown relations, but are time-consuming and hard-won. New York City and the surrounding area is both ideally suited and unambiguously ill-suited for astronomy public outreach. I will detail the results of three major outreach efforts in coordination with the Amateur Astronomers Association of New York. I will highlight large public-space observing in the context of the Transit of Venus and star parties at other locations. I will also outline outreach efforts at William Paterson University, where two public nights and a Curiosity EDL event created a clear impact in Northern New Jersey. I will detail methods for encouraging and bringing out amateur observers to events, urban crowd management, publicity issues, and the benefits and pitfalls of social media in the promotion and execution of large-scale and moderate events.

Crater size estimates for large-body terrestrial impact

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schmidt, Robert M.; Housen, Kevin R.

1988-01-01

Calculating the effects of impacts leading to global catastrophes requires knowledge of the impact process at very large size scales. This information cannot be obtained directly but must be inferred from subscale physical simulations, numerical simulations, and scaling laws. Schmidt and Holsapple presented scaling laws based upon laboratory-scale impact experiments performed on a centrifuge (Schmidt, 1980 and Schmidt and Holsapple, 1980). These experiments were used to develop scaling laws which were among the first to include gravity dependence associated with increasing event size. At that time using the results of experiments in dry sand and in water to provide bounds on crater size, they recognized that more precise bounds on large-body impact crater formation could be obtained with additional centrifuge experiments conducted in other geological media. In that previous work, simple power-law formulae were developed to relate final crater diameter to impactor size and velocity. In addition, Schmidt (1980) and Holsapple and Schmidt (1982) recognized that the energy scaling exponent is not a universal constant but depends upon the target media. Recently, Holsapple and Schmidt (1987) includes results for non-porous materials and provides a basis for estimating crater formation kinematics and final crater size. A revised set of scaling relationships for all crater parameters of interest are presented. These include results for various target media and include the kinematics of formation. Particular attention is given to possible limits brought about by very large impactors.

A Novel Porosity Model for Use in Hydrocode Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wuennemann, K.; Collins, G. S.; Melosh, H. J.

2005-01-01

Introduction: Numerical modeling of impact cratering has reached a high degree of sophistication; however, the treatment of porous materials still poses a large problem in hydrocode calculations. Porosity plays only a minor role in the formation of large craters on most planetary objects, but impacts on comets are believed to be highly affected by the presence of porosity, which may be as much as 80%. The upcoming Deep Impact Mission (launched January 2005) will provide more detailed data about the composition of a comet (Tempel 1) by shooting a approx.370 kg projectile onto the surface of its nucleus. The numerical simulations of such impact events requires an appropriate model for how pore space in the comet is crushed out during the violent initial stage of the impact event. Most hydro-codes compute the pressure explicitly using an "equation of state" (EOS) for each material, which relates changes in density and internal energy to changes in pressure. The added complication introduced by porosity is that changes in a material s density are due to both the closing of pore space (compaction) and compression of the matrix. The amount of resistance to volume change and the amount of irreversible work done during these two processes is very different; it is far easier to compact a porous material sample than to compress a non-porous sample of the same material. As an alternative to existing porosity models, like the Pdot(alpha) model [1], we present a novel approach for dealing with the compaction of porosity in hydrocode calculations.

Presenting Critical Space Weather Information to Customers and Stakeholders (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viereck, R. A.; Singer, H. J.; Murtagh, W. J.; Rutledge, B.

2013-12-01

Space weather involves changes in the near-Earth space environment that impact technological systems such as electric power, radio communication, satellite navigation (GPS), and satellite opeartions. As with terrestrial weather, there are several different kinds of space weather and each presents unique challenges to the impacted technologies and industries. But unlike terrestrial weather, many customers are not fully aware of space weather or how it impacts their systems. This issue is further complicated by the fact that the largest space weather events occur very infrequently with years going by without severe storms. Recent reports have estimated very large potential costs to the economy and to society if a geomagnetic storm were to cause major damage to the electric power transmission system. This issue has come to the attention of emergency managers and federal agencies including the office of the president. However, when considering space weather impacts, it is essential to also consider uncertainties in the frequency of events and the predicted impacts. The unique nature of space weather storms, the specialized technologies that are impacted by them, and the disparate groups and agencies that respond to space weather forecasts and alerts create many challenges to the task of communicating space weather information to the public. Many customers that receive forecasts and alerts are highly technical and knowledgeable about the subtleties of the space environment. Others know very little and require ongoing education and explanation about how a space weather storm will affect their systems. In addition, the current knowledge and understanding of the space environment that goes into forecasting storms is quite immature. It has only been within the last five years that physics-based models of the space environment have played important roles in predictions. Thus, the uncertainties in the forecasts are quite large. There is much that we don't know about space weather and this influences our forecasts. In this presentation, I will discuss the unique challenges that space weather forecasters face when explaining what we know and what we don't know about space weather events to customers and policy makers.

Extreme precipitation and floods in the Iberian Peninsula and its socio-economic impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramos, A. M.; Pereira, S.; Trigo, R. M.; Zêzere, J. L.

2017-12-01

Extreme precipitation events in the Iberian Peninsula can induce floods and landslides that have often major socio-economic impacts. The DISASTER database gathered the basic information on past floods and landslides that caused social consequences in Portugal for the period 1865-2015. This database was built under the assumption that social consequences of floods and landslides are sufficient relevant to be reported by newspapers, that provide the data source. Three extreme historical events were analysed in detail taking into account their associated wide socio-economic impacts. The December 1876 record precipitation and flood event leading to an all-time record flow in two large international rivers (Tagus and Guadiana). As a direct consequence, several Portuguese and Spanish towns and villages located in the banks of both rivers suffered serious flood damage on 7 December 1876. The 20-28 December 1909 event recorded the highest number of flood and landslide cases that occurred in Portugal in the period 1865-2015, having triggered the highest floods in 200 years at the Douro river's mouth and causing 89 fatalities in both Portugal and Spain northern regions. More recently the deadliest flash-flooding event affecting Portugal since, at least, the early 19th century, took place on the 25 and 26 November 1967 causing more than 500 fatalities in the Lisbon region. We provide a detailed analysis of each of these events, including their human impacts, precipitation analyses based on historical datasets and the associated atmospheric circulation conditions from reanalysis datasets. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the project FORLAND - Hydrogeomorphologic risk in Portugal: driving forces and application for land use planning [PTDC / ATPGEO / 1660/2014] funded by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT), Portugal. A. M. Ramos was also supported by a FCT postdoctoral grant (FCT/DFRH/ SFRH/BPD/84328/2012). The financial support for attending this workshop was also possible through FCT project UID/GEO/50019/2013 - Instituto Dom Luiz.

The Human Impact of Earthquakes: a Historical Review of Events 1980-2009 and Systematic Literature Review

PubMed Central

Doocy, Shannon; Daniels, Amy; Packer, Catherine; Dick, Anna; Kirsch, Thomas D.

2013-01-01

Introduction. Population growth and increasing urbanization in earthquake-prone areas suggest that earthquake impacts on human populations will increase in the coming decades. Recent large earthquakes affecting large populations in Japan, Haiti, Chile and New Zealand are evidence of this trend and also illustrate significant variations in outcomes such damage and mortality levels. The objectives of this review were to describe the impact of earthquakes on human populations in terms of mortality, injury and displacement and, to the extent possible, identify risk factors associated with these outcomes. This is one of five reviews on the human impact of natural disasters. Methods. Data on the impact of earthquakes were compiled using two methods, a historical review from 1980 to mid 2009 of earthquake events from multiple databases and a systematic literature review of publications, ending in October 2012. Analysis included descriptive statistics and bivariate tests for associations between earthquake mortality and characteristics using STATA 11. Findings. From 1980 through 2009, there were a total of 372,634 deaths (range 314,634-412,599), 995,219 injuries (range: 845,345-1,145,093), and more than 61 million people affected by earthquakes, and mortality was greatest in Asia. Inconsistent reporting across data sources suggests that the numbers injured and affected are likely underestimates. Findings from a systematic review of the literature indicate that the primary cause of earthquake-related death was trauma due to building collapse and, the very young and the elderly were at increased mortality risk, while gender was not consistently associated with mortality risk. Conclusions. Strategies to mitigate the impact of future earthquakes should include improvements to the built environment and a focus on populations most vulnerable to mortality and injury. PMID:23857161

Orbital Debris Assesment Tesing in the AEDC Range G

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Polk, Marshall; Woods, David; Roebuck, Brian; Opiela, John; Sheaffer, Patti; Liou, J.-C.

2015-01-01

The space environment presents many hazards for satellites and spacecraft. One of the major hazards is hypervelocity impacts from uncontrolled man-made space debris. Arnold Engineering Development Complex (AEDC), The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), The United States Air Force Space and Missile Systems Center (SMC), the University of Florida, and The Aerospace Corporation configured a large ballistic range to perform a series of hypervelocity destructive impact tests in order to better understand the effects of space collisions. The test utilized AEDC's Range G light gas launcher, which is capable of firing projectiles up to 7 km/s. A non-functional full-scale representation of a modern satellite called the DebriSat was destroyed in the enclosed range enviroment. Several modifications to the range facility were made to ensure quality data was obtained from the impact events. The facility modifcations were intended to provide a high impact energy to target mass ratio (>200 J/g), a non-damaging method of debris collection, and an instrumentation suite capable of providing information on the physics of the entire imapct event.

A reexamination of the Sudbury landing

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ross, D.S.

2006-01-01

The arrival of the massive body that led to the Sudbury impact structure has been interpreted as a relatively gentle event, with temperatures not exceeding 1300 K on the basis of the presence of fullerene-caged helium. Such temperatures are well below the 10,000 K peaks suggested in large impact modeling, and in contrast to that higher temperature regime they can accommodate the survival of exogenous precursors to life. A reexamination of the kinetics of the thermolysis of C60-helium shows that the impact was probably not extraordinary, and yielded temperatures in the extreme range. Thermodynamic and kinetics arguments suggest, moreover, that the fullerenes were not extraterrestrial in origin but produced during impact. ?? 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Statistical Analysis of the Effectiveness of Seawalls and Coastal Forests in Mitigating Tsunami Impacts in Iwate and Miyagi Prefectures.

PubMed

Nateghi, Roshanak; Bricker, Jeremy D; Guikema, Seth D; Bessho, Akane

2016-01-01

The Pacific coast of the Tohoku region of Japan experiences repeated tsunamis, with the most recent events having occurred in 1896, 1933, 1960, and 2011. These events have caused large loss of life and damage throughout the coastal region. There is uncertainty about the degree to which seawalls reduce deaths and building damage during tsunamis in Japan. On the one hand they provide physical protection against tsunamis as long as they are not overtopped and do not fail. On the other hand, the presence of a seawall may induce a false sense of security, encouraging additional development behind the seawall and reducing evacuation rates during an event. We analyze municipality-level and sub-municipality-level data on the impacts of the 1896, 1933, 1960, and 2011 tsunamis, finding that seawalls larger than 5 m in height generally have served a protective role in these past events, reducing both death rates and the damage rates of residential buildings. However, seawalls smaller than 5 m in height appear to have encouraged development in vulnerable areas and exacerbated damage. We also find that the extent of flooding is a critical factor in estimating both death rates and building damage rates, suggesting that additional measures, such as multiple lines of defense and elevating topography, may have significant benefits in reducing the impacts of tsunamis. Moreover, the area of coastal forests was found to be inversely related to death and destruction rates, indicating that forests either mitigated the impacts of these tsunamis, or displaced development that would otherwise have been damaged.

Statistical Analysis of the Effectiveness of Seawalls and Coastal Forests in Mitigating Tsunami Impacts in Iwate and Miyagi Prefectures

PubMed Central

Nateghi, Roshanak; Bricker, Jeremy D.; Guikema, Seth D.; Bessho, Akane

2016-01-01

The Pacific coast of the Tohoku region of Japan experiences repeated tsunamis, with the most recent events having occurred in 1896, 1933, 1960, and 2011. These events have caused large loss of life and damage throughout the coastal region. There is uncertainty about the degree to which seawalls reduce deaths and building damage during tsunamis in Japan. On the one hand they provide physical protection against tsunamis as long as they are not overtopped and do not fail. On the other hand, the presence of a seawall may induce a false sense of security, encouraging additional development behind the seawall and reducing evacuation rates during an event. We analyze municipality-level and sub-municipality-level data on the impacts of the 1896, 1933, 1960, and 2011 tsunamis, finding that seawalls larger than 5 m in height generally have served a protective role in these past events, reducing both death rates and the damage rates of residential buildings. However, seawalls smaller than 5 m in height appear to have encouraged development in vulnerable areas and exacerbated damage. We also find that the extent of flooding is a critical factor in estimating both death rates and building damage rates, suggesting that additional measures, such as multiple lines of defense and elevating topography, may have significant benefits in reducing the impacts of tsunamis. Moreover, the area of coastal forests was found to be inversely related to death and destruction rates, indicating that forests either mitigated the impacts of these tsunamis, or displaced development that would otherwise have been damaged. PMID:27508461

The human impact of floods: a historical review of events 1980-2009 and systematic literature review.

PubMed

Doocy, Shannon; Daniels, Amy; Murray, Sarah; Kirsch, Thomas D

2013-04-16

Background. Floods are the most common natural disaster and the leading cause of natural disaster fatalities worldwide. Risk of catastrophic losses due to flooding is significant given deforestation and the increasing proximity of large populations to coastal areas, river basins and lakeshores. The objectives of this review were to describe the impact of flood events on human populations in terms of mortality, injury, and displacement and, to the extent possible, identify risk factors associated with these outcomes. This is one of five reviews on the human impact of natural disasters Methods. Data on the impact of floods were compiled using two methods, a historical review of flood events from 1980 to 2009 from multiple databases and a systematic literature review of publications ending in October 2012. Analysis included descriptive statistics, bivariate tests for associations and multinomial logistic regression of flood characteristics and mortality using Stata 11.0. Findings. There were 539,811 deaths (range: 510,941 to 568,680), 361,974 injuries and 2,821,895,005 people affected by floods between 1980 and 2009. Inconsistent reporting suggests this is an underestimate, particularly in terms of the injured and affected populations. The primary cause of flood-related mortality is drowning; in developed countries being in a motor-vehicle and male gender are associated with increased mortality, whereas female gender may be linked to higher mortality in low-income countries. Conclusions. Expanded monitoring of floods, improved mitigation measures, and effective communication with civil authorities and vulnerable populations has the potential to reduce loss of life in future flood events.

The Human Impact of Floods: a Historical Review of Events 1980-2009 and Systematic Literature Review

PubMed Central

Doocy, Shannon; Daniels, Amy; Murray, Sarah; Kirsch, Thomas D.

2013-01-01

Background. Floods are the most common natural disaster and the leading cause of natural disaster fatalities worldwide. Risk of catastrophic losses due to flooding is significant given deforestation and the increasing proximity of large populations to coastal areas, river basins and lakeshores. The objectives of this review were to describe the impact of flood events on human populations in terms of mortality, injury, and displacement and, to the extent possible, identify risk factors associated with these outcomes. This is one of five reviews on the human impact of natural disasters Methods. Data on the impact of floods were compiled using two methods, a historical review of flood events from 1980 to 2009 from multiple databases and a systematic literature review of publications ending in October 2012. Analysis included descriptive statistics, bivariate tests for associations and multinomial logistic regression of flood characteristics and mortality using Stata 11.0. Findings. There were 539,811 deaths (range: 510,941 to 568,680), 361,974 injuries and 2,821,895,005 people affected by floods between 1980 and 2009. Inconsistent reporting suggests this is an underestimate, particularly in terms of the injured and affected populations. The primary cause of flood-related mortality is drowning; in developed countries being in a motor-vehicle and male gender are associated with increased mortality, whereas female gender may be linked to higher mortality in low-income countries. Conclusions. Expanded monitoring of floods, improved mitigation measures, and effective communication with civil authorities and vulnerable populations has the potential to reduce loss of life in future flood events. PMID:23857425

Linkages between observed, modeled Saharan dust loading and meningitis in Senegal during 2012 and 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diokhane, Aminata Mbow; Jenkins, Gregory S.; Manga, Noel; Drame, Mamadou S.; Mbodji, Boubacar

2016-04-01

The Sahara desert transports large quantities of dust over the Sahelian region during the Northern Hemisphere winter and spring seasons (December-April). In episodic events, high dust concentrations are found at the surface, negatively impacting respiratory health. Bacterial meningitis in particular is known to affect populations that live in the Sahelian zones, which is otherwise known as the meningitis belt. During the winter and spring of 2012, suspected meningitis cases (SMCs) were with three times higher than in 2013. We show higher surface particular matter concentrations at Dakar, Senegal and elevated atmospheric dust loading in Senegal for the period of 1 January-31 May during 2012 relative to 2013. We analyze simulated particulate matter over Senegal from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model during 2012 and 2013. The results show higher simulated dust concentrations during the winter season of 2012 for Senegal. The WRF model correctly captures the large dust events from 1 January-31 March but has shown less skill during April and May for simulated dust concentrations. The results also show that the boundary conditions are the key feature for correctly simulating large dust events and initial conditions are less important.

Mental health of victims of sexual violence in eastern Congo: associations with daily stressors, stigma, and labeling

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The conflict-ridden context of eastern Congo has set the scene for grueling human rights violations, with sexual violence as one of the ‘weapons of war’. Currently, sexual violence continues, with a considerable increase in civilian perpetrators. However, little is known regarding the particular impact of different experiences of sexual violence on adolescents’ mental health. This study therefore investigates the impact of sexual violence on eastern Congolese adolescents’ mental health and its differing associations with daily stressors, stigma, and the labeling of sexual violence (as ‘rape’ or ‘non-consensual sexual experience’). Methods A cross-sectional, population-based survey design was implemented in 22 secondary schools, randomly selected from a stratified sample, in Bunia, eastern Congo, a region extensively affected by war. A total of 1,305 school-going adolescent girls aged 11 to 23 participated. Self-report measures of mental health symptoms, war-related traumatic events, experiences of sexual violence, daily stressors, and stigmatization were administered. Differences in sociodemographic characteristics, traumatic experiences and daily and social stressors between types of sexual violence (rape, non-consensual sexual violence, no sexual violence) were explored through statistical analysis. ANCOVA analyses investigated associations between those risk factors and adolescents’ mental health. Results More than one third of eastern Congolese adolescent girls reported experiences of sexual violence. Elevated levels of daily stressors, experiences of stigmatization, and stressful war-related events were found amongst girl victims of sexual violence, with the highest levels for girls who labeled the sexual violence as rape. Daily stressors, stigmatization, and war-related events showed a large impact on the girls’ mental health. Last, girls who labeled the sexual violence as non-consensual sexual experiences reported more post-traumatic hyper-arousal and intrusion symptoms compared to those labeling the sexual violence as rape. Conclusions These findings point to the important association between how war-affected adolescent girls label sexual violence (rape or non-consensual sexual experiences) and their mental health. This study also documents the large impact of sexual violence on other stressors (daily stressors, stigmatization, and stressful war events) and the impact of these stressors on girl victims’ mental health. It discusses important implications for addressing sexual violence and its consequences in war-affected contexts. PMID:25195041

Mental health of victims of sexual violence in eastern Congo: associations with daily stressors, stigma, and labeling.

PubMed

Verelst, An; De Schryver, Maarten; Broekaert, Eric; Derluyn, Ilse

2014-09-06

The conflict-ridden context of eastern Congo has set the scene for grueling human rights violations, with sexual violence as one of the 'weapons of war'. Currently, sexual violence continues, with a considerable increase in civilian perpetrators. However, little is known regarding the particular impact of different experiences of sexual violence on adolescents' mental health. This study therefore investigates the impact of sexual violence on eastern Congolese adolescents' mental health and its differing associations with daily stressors, stigma, and the labeling of sexual violence (as 'rape' or 'non-consensual sexual experience'). A cross-sectional, population-based survey design was implemented in 22 secondary schools, randomly selected from a stratified sample, in Bunia, eastern Congo, a region extensively affected by war. A total of 1,305 school-going adolescent girls aged 11 to 23 participated. Self-report measures of mental health symptoms, war-related traumatic events, experiences of sexual violence, daily stressors, and stigmatization were administered. Differences in sociodemographic characteristics, traumatic experiences and daily and social stressors between types of sexual violence (rape, non-consensual sexual violence, no sexual violence) were explored through statistical analysis. ANCOVA analyses investigated associations between those risk factors and adolescents' mental health. More than one third of eastern Congolese adolescent girls reported experiences of sexual violence. Elevated levels of daily stressors, experiences of stigmatization, and stressful war-related events were found amongst girl victims of sexual violence, with the highest levels for girls who labeled the sexual violence as rape. Daily stressors, stigmatization, and war-related events showed a large impact on the girls' mental health. Last, girls who labeled the sexual violence as non-consensual sexual experiences reported more post-traumatic hyper-arousal and intrusion symptoms compared to those labeling the sexual violence as rape. These findings point to the important association between how war-affected adolescent girls label sexual violence (rape or non-consensual sexual experiences) and their mental health. This study also documents the large impact of sexual violence on other stressors (daily stressors, stigmatization, and stressful war events) and the impact of these stressors on girl victims' mental health. It discusses important implications for addressing sexual violence and its consequences in war-affected contexts.

Decadal-scale ecosystem memory reveals interactive effects of drought and insect defoliation on boreal forest productivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Itter, M.; D'Orangeville, L.; Dawson, A.; Kneeshaw, D.; Finley, A. O.

2017-12-01

Drought and insect defoliation have lasting impacts on the dynamics of the boreal forest. Impacts are expected to worsen under global climate change as hotter, drier conditions forecast for much of the boreal increase the frequency and severity of drought and defoliation events. Contemporary ecological theory predicts physiological feedbacks in tree responses to drought and defoliation amplify impacts potentially causing large-scale productivity losses and forest mortality. Quantifying the interactive impacts of drought and insect defoliation on regional forest health is difficult given delayed and persistent responses to disturbance events. We developed a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate forest growth responses to interactions between drought and insect defoliation by species and size class. Delayed and persistent responses to past drought and defoliation were quantified using empirical memory functions allowing for improved detection of interactions. The model was applied to tree-ring data from stands in Western (Alberta) and Eastern (Québec) regions of the Canadian boreal forest with different species compositions, disturbance regimes, and regional climates. Western stands experience chronic water deficit and forest tent caterpillar (FTC) defoliation; Eastern stands experience irregular water deficit and spruce budworm (SBW) defoliation. Ecosystem memory to past water deficit peaked in the year previous to growth and decayed to zero within 5 (West) to 8 (East) years; memory to past defoliation ranged from 8 (West) to 12 (East) years. The drier regional climate and faster FTC defoliation dynamics (compared to SBW) likely contribute to shorter ecosystem memory in the West. Drought and defoliation had the largest negative impact on large-diameter, host tree growth. Surprisingly, a positive interaction was observed between drought and defoliation for large-diameter, non-host trees likely due to reduced stand-level competition for water. Results highlight the temporal persistence of drought and defoliation stress on boreal forest growth dynamics and provide an empirical estimate of their interactive effects with explicit uncertainty.

Impact origin of the Moon

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Slattery, W.L.

1998-12-31

A few years after the Apollo flights to the Moon, it became clear that all of the existing theories on the origin of the Moon would not satisfy the growing body of constraints which appeared with the data gathered by the Apollo flights. About the same time, researchers began to realize that the inner (terrestrial) planets were not born quietly -- all had evidences of impacts on their surfaces. This fact reinforced the idea that the planets had formed by the accumulation of planetesimals. Since the Earth`s moon is unique among the terrestrial planets, a few researchers realized that perhapsmore » the Moon originated in a singular event; an event that was quite probable, but not so probable that one would expect all the terrestrial planets to have a large moon. And thus was born the idea that a giant impact formed the Moon. Impacts would be common in the early solar system; perhaps a really large impact of two almost fully formed planets of disparate sizes would lead to material orbiting the proto-earth, a proto-moon. This idea remained to be tested. Using a relatively new, but robust, method of doing the hydrodynamics of the collision (Smoothed-Particle Hydrodynamics), the author and his colleagues (W. Benz, Univ. of Arizona, and A.G.W. Cameron, Harvard College Obs.) did a large number of collision simulations on a supercomputer. The author found two major scenarios which would result in the formation of the Moon. The first was direct formation; a moon-sized object is boosted into orbit by gravitational torques. The second is when the orbiting material forms a disk, which, with subsequent evolution can form the Moon. In either case the physical and chemical properties of the newly formed Moon would very neatly satisfy the physical and chemical constraints of the current Moon. Also, in both scenarios the surface of the Earth would be quite hot after the collision. This aspect remains to be explored.« less

Know your limits? Climate extremes impact the range of Scots pine in unexpected places

PubMed Central

Julio Camarero, J.; Gazol, Antonio; Sancho-Benages, Santiago; Sangüesa-Barreda, Gabriel

2015-01-01

Background and Aims Although extreme climatic events such as drought are known to modify forest dynamics by triggering tree dieback, the impact of extreme cold events, especially at the low-latitude margin (‘rear edge’) of species distributional ranges, has received little attention. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of one such extreme cold event on a population of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) along the species’ European southern rear-edge range limit and to determine how such events can be incorporated into species distribution models (SDMs). Methods A combination of dendrochronology and field observation was used to quantify how an extreme cold event in 2001 in eastern Spain affected growth, needle loss and mortality of Scots pine. Long-term European climatic data sets were used to contextualize the severity of the 2001 event, and an SDM for Scots pine in Europe was used to predict climatic range limits. Key Results The 2001 winter reached record minimum temperatures (equivalent to the maximum European-wide diurnal ranges) and, for trees already stressed by a preceding dry summer and autumn, this caused dieback and large-scale mortality. Needle loss and mortality were particularly evident in south-facing sites, where post-event recovery was greatly reduced. The SDM predicted European Scots pine distribution mainly on the basis of responses to maximum and minimum monthly temperatures, but in comparison with this the observed effects of the 2001 cold event at the southerly edge of the range limit were unforeseen. Conclusions The results suggest that in order to better forecast how anthropogenic climate change might affect future forest distributions, distribution modelling techniques such as SDMs must incorporate climatic extremes. For Scots pine, this study shows that the effects of cold extremes should be included across the entire distribution margin, including the southern ‘rear edge’, in order to avoid biased predictions based solely on warmer climatic scenarios. PMID:26292992

Age determinations and Earth-based multispectral observations of lunar light plains

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koehler, U.; Jaumann, R.; Neukum, G.

1993-01-01

The history of light plains still remains doubtful, but there are good arguments - mainly obtained by age determinations and supported by multispectral observations - for an endogenic (magmatic) instead of an (exclusively) impact related origin. Light plains are characterized by smooth areas with an albedo lower than the surrounding highlands (12 - 13 percent), but significantly higher than maria (5 - 6 percent). Before Apollo 16 a volcanic source has been supposed, but analysis of returned samples (highly brecciated and metamorphosed rocks) favored an impact ejecta related origin. Among the currently discussed models are formation by ejecta sedimentation from multi-ringed basins, formation by secondary and tertiary cratering action of ballistically ejected material during the formation of multi-ringed basins, in situ formation by impact melt of large events, and premare (crypto-) volcanism basalts covered by a thin ejecta cover; younger impacts penetrated the ejecta surface to create the dark haloed craters. To find arguments in favor or against these ideas the chronology of light plains is of major importance. Obviously a genetic relationship between the evolution of light plains and the basin forming impacts can be possible only if the events of emplacement features happened simultaneously.

Supporting FIRE-suppression strategies combining fire spread MODelling and SATellite data in an operational context in Portugal: the FIRE-MODSAT project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sá, Ana C. L.; Benali, Akli; Pinto, Renata M. S.; Pereira, José M. C.; Trigo, Ricardo M.; DaCamara, Carlos C.

2014-05-01

Large wildfires are infrequent but account for the most severe environmental, ecological and socio-economic impacts. In recent years Portugal has suffered the impact of major heat waves that fuelled records of burnt area exceeding 400.000ha and 300.000ha in 2003 and 2005, respectively. According to the latest IPCC reports, the frequency and amplitude of summer heat waves over Iberia will very likely increase in the future. Therefore, most climate change studies point to an increase in the number and extent of wildfires. Thus, an increase in both wildfire impacts and fire suppression difficulties is expected. The spread of large wildfires results from a complex interaction between topography, meteorology and fuel properties. Wildfire spread models (e.g. FARSITE) are commonly used to simulate fire growth and behaviour and are an essential tool to understand their main drivers. Additionally, satellite active-fire data have been used to monitor the occurrence, extent, and spread of wildfires. Both satellite data and fire spread models provide different types of information about the spatial and temporal distribution of large wildfires and can potentially be used to support strategic decisions regarding fire suppression resource allocation. However, they have not been combined in a manner that fully exploits their potential and minimizes their limitations. A knowledge gap still exists in understanding how to minimize the impacts of large wildfires, leading to the following research question: What can we learn from past large wildfires in order to mitigate future fire impacts? FIRE-MODSAT is a one-year funded project by the Portuguese Foundation for the Science and Technology (FCT) that is founded on this research question, with the main goal of improving our understanding on the interactions between fire spread and its environmental drivers, to support fire management decisions in an operational context and generate valuable information to improve the efficiency of the fire suppression system. This project proposes to explore an innovative combination of remote sensing and fire spread models in order to 1) better understand the interactions of fire spread drivers that lead to large wildfires; 2) identify the spatio-temporal frames in which large wildfires can be suppressed more efficiently, and 3) explore the essential steps towards an operational use of both tools to assist fire suppression decisions. Preliminary results combine MODIS active-fire data and burn scar perimeters, to derive the main fire spread paths for the 10 largest wildfires that occurred in Portugal between 2001 and 2012. Fire growth and behavior simulations of some of those wildfires are assessed using the active fires data. Results are also compared with the major fire paths to understand the main drivers of fire propagation, through their interactions with topography, vegetation and meteorology. These combined results are also used for spatial and temporal identification of opportunity windows for a more efficient suppression intervention for each fire event. The approach shows promising results, providing a valuable reconstruction of the fire events and retrieval of important parameters related to the complex spread patterns of individual fire events.

A Time Scale for Major Events in Early Mars Crustal Evolution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frey, Herbert V.

2004-01-01

The population of visible and buried impact basins > 200 km diameter revealed by high resolution gridded MOLA data and the cumulative frequency curves derived for these pvide a basis for a chronology of major events in early martian history. The relative chronology can be given in terms of N(200) crater retention ages; 'absolute ages' can be assigued using the Hartmann-Neukum (H&N) model chronology. In terms of billions of H&N years, the crustal dichotomy formed by large impact basins at 4.12 +/- 0.08 BYA (N(200) = 3.0-3.2) and the global magnetic field died at about or slightly before the same time (4.15 +/- 0.08 BYA (N(200) = 3.5). In this chronology, the buried lowlands are approx. 120 my younger than the buried highlands, approx. 160 my younger than the highlands overall and approx. 340 my younger than the oldest crater retention surface we see, defined by the largest impact basins.

Development, implementation and evaluation of a patient handoff tool to improve safety in orthopaedic surgery.

PubMed

Gagnier, Joel J; Derosier, Joseph M; Maratt, Joseph D; Hake, Mark E; Bagian, James P

2016-06-01

To develop, implement and test the effect of a handoff tool for orthopaedic trauma residents that reduces adverse events associated with the omission of critical information and the transfer of erroneous information. Components of this project included a literature review, resident surveys and observations, checklist development and refinement, implementation and evaluation of impact on adverse events through a chart review of a prospective cohort compared with a historical control group. Large teaching hospital. Findings of a literature review were presented to orthopaedic residents, epidemiologists, orthopaedic surgeons and patient safety experts in face-to-face meetings, during which we developed and refined the contents of a resident handoff tool. The tool was tested in an orthopaedic trauma service and its impact on adverse events was evaluated through a chart review. The handoff tool was developed and refined during the face-to-face meetings and a pilot implementation. Adverse event data were collected on 127 patients (n = 67 baseline period; n = 60 test period). A handoff tool for use by orthopaedic residents. Adverse events in patients handed off by orthopaedic trauma residents. After controlling for age, gender and comorbidities, testing resulted in fewer events per person (25-27% reduction; P < 0.10). Preliminary evidence suggests that our resident handoff tool may contribute to a decrease in adverse events in orthopaedic patients. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press in association with the International Society for Quality in Health Care; all rights reserved.

Spatial impact and triggering conditions of the exceptional hydro-geomorphological event of December 1909 in Iberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pereira, S.; Ramos, A. M.; Zêzere, J. L.; Trigo, R. M.; Vaquero, J. M.

2016-02-01

According to the DISASTER database the 20-28 December 1909 event was the hydro-geomorphologic event with the highest number of flood and landslide cases that occurred in Portugal in the period 1865-2010 (Zêzere et al., 2014). This event also caused important social impacts over the Spanish territory, especially in the Douro Basin, having triggered the highest floods in more than 100 years at the river's mouth in the city of Oporto. This work has a dual purpose: (i) to characterize the spatial distribution and social impacts of the December 1909 hydro-geomorphologic DISASTER event over Portugal and Spain; (ii) to analyse the meteorological conditions that triggered the event and the spatial distribution of the precipitation anomalies. Social impacts that occurred in Portugal were obtained from the Disaster database (Zêzere et al., 2014) whereas the data collection for Spain was supported by the systematic analysis of Spanish daily newspapers. In addition, the meteorological conditions that triggered the event are analysed using the 20th Century Reanalysis data set from NOAA and precipitation data from Iberian meteorological stations. The Iberian Peninsula was spatially affected during this event along the SW-NE direction spanning from Lisbon, Santarém, Oporto, and Guarda (in Portugal), to Salamanca, Valladolid, Zamora, Orense, León, and Palencia (in Spain). In Iberia, 134 DISASTER cases were recorded (130 flood cases; 4 landslides cases) having caused 89 casualties (57 due to floods and 32 due to landslides) and a further total of 3876 affected people, including fatalities, injured, missing, evacuated, and homeless people. This event was associated with outstanding precipitation registered at Guarda (Portugal) on 22 December 1909 and unusual meteorological conditions characterized by the presence of a deep low-pressure system located over the NW Iberian Peninsula with a stationary frontal system striking the western Iberian Peninsula. The presence of an upper-level jet (250 hPa) and low-level jet (900 hPa) located SW-NE oriented towards Iberia along with upper-level divergence and lower-level convergence favoured large-scale precipitation. Finally, associated with these features it is possible to state that this extreme event was clearly associated with the presence of an elongated Atmospheric River, crossing the entire northern Atlantic Basin and providing a continuous supply of moisture that contributed to enhance precipitation. This work contributes to a comprehensive and systematic synoptic evaluation of the second most deadly hydro-geomorphologic DISASTER event that has occurred in Portugal since 1865 and will help to better understand the meteorological system that was responsible for triggering the event.

Concurrent Schedules of Positive and Negative Reinforcement: Differential-Impact and Differential-Outcomes Hypotheses

PubMed Central

Magoon, Michael A; Critchfield, Thomas S

2008-01-01

Considerable evidence from outside of operant psychology suggests that aversive events exert greater influence over behavior than equal-sized positive-reinforcement events. Operant theory is largely moot on this point, and most operant research is uninformative because of a scaling problem that prevents aversive events and those based on positive reinforcement from being directly compared. In the present investigation, humans' mouse-click responses were maintained on similarly structured, concurrent schedules of positive (money gain) and negative (avoidance of money loss) reinforcement. Because gains and losses were of equal magnitude, according to the analytical conventions of the generalized matching law, bias (log b ≠ 0) would indicate differential impact by one type of consequence; however, no systematic bias was observed. Further research is needed to reconcile this outcome with apparently robust findings in other literatures of superior behavior control by aversive events. In an incidental finding, the linear function relating log behavior ratio and log reinforcement ratio was steeper for concurrent negative and positive reinforcement than for control conditions involving concurrent positive reinforcement. This may represent the first empirical confirmation of a free-operant differential-outcomes effect predicted by contingency-discriminability theories of choice. PMID:18683609

Intra-seasonal Characteristics of Wintertime Extreme Cold Events over South Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Taewon; Jeong, Jeehoon; Choi, Jahyun

2017-04-01

The present study reveals the changes in the characteristics of extreme cold events over South Korea for boreal winter (November to March) in terms of the intra-seasonal variability of frequency, duration, and atmospheric circulation pattern. Influences of large-scale variabilities such as the Siberian High activity, the Arctic Oscillation (AO), and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on extreme cold events are also investigated. In the early and the late of the winter during November and March, the upper-tropospheric wave-train for a life-cycle of the extreme cold events tends to pass quickly over East Asia. In addition, compared with the other months, the intensity of the Siberian High is weaker and the occurrences of strong negative AO are less frequent. It lead to events with weak amplitude and short duration. On the other hand, the amplified Siberian High and the strong negative AO occur more frequently in the mid of the winter from December to February. The extreme cold events are mainly characterized by a well-organized anticyclonic blocking around the Ural Mountain and the Subarctic. These large-scale circulation makes the extreme cold events for the midwinter last long with strong amplitude. The MJO phases 2-3 which provide a suitable condition for the amplification of extreme cold events occur frequently for November to January when the frequencies are more than twice those for February and March. While the extreme cold events during March have the least frequency, the weakest amplitude, and the shortest duration due to weak impacts of the abovementioned factors, the strong activities of the factors for January force the extreme cold events to be the most frequent, the strongest, and the longest among the boreal winter. Keywords extreme cold event, wave-train, blocking, Siberian High, AO, MJO

Roadblocks on the kill curve: Testing the Raup hypothesis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Poag, C.W.

1997-01-01

The documented presence of two large (~100-km diameter), possibly coeval impact craters of late Eocene age, requires modification of the impact-kill curve proposed by David M. Raup. Though the estimated meteorite size for each crater alone is large enough to have produced considerable global environmental stress, no horizons of mass mortality or pulsed extinction are known to be associated with either crater or their ejecta deposits. Thus, either there is no fixed relationship between extinction magnitude and crater diameter, or a meteorite that would produce a crater of >100-km diameter is required to raise extinction rates significantly above a ~5% background level. Both impacts took place ~1-2 m.y. before the "Terminal Eocene Event" ( =early Oligocene pulsed extinction). Their collective long-term environmental effects, however, may have either delayed that extinction pulse or produced threshold conditions necessary for it to take place.

Unmelted Meteoritic Debris Collected from Eltanin Ejecta in Polarstern Cores from Expedition ANT XII/4

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kyte, Frank T.

2002-01-01

A total of 1.7g of unmelted meteorite particles have been recovered from FS Polarstern piston cores collected on expedition ANT XII/4 that contain ejecta from the Eltanin impact event. Most of the mass (1.2 g) is a large, single specimen that is a polymict breccia, similar in mineralogy and chemistry to howardites or the silicate fraction of mesosiderites. Most of the remaining mass is in several large individual pieces (20-75mg each) that are polymict breccias, fragments dominated by pyroxene, and an igneous rock fragment. The latter has highly fractionated REE, similar to those reported in mafic clasts from mesosiderites. Other types of specimens identified include fragments dominated by maskelynite or olivine. These pieces of the projectile probably survived impact by being blown off the back surface of the Eltanin asteroid during its impact into the Bellingshausen Sea.

IODP-ICDP Expedition 364: Drilling the Chicxulub impact crater to understand planetary evolution and mass extinction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gulick, S. P. S.; Morgan, J. V.

2017-12-01

The most recent of Earth's five largest mass extinction events occurred 66 Ma, coeval with the impact of a 12 km asteroid, striking at 60 degrees into what is today the Yucatán Peninsula, México, producing the 200 km-wide Chicxulub crater. This impact, by some estimations, drove the extinction of 75% of life on Earth at the genus level. The mass extinction event marks the boundary between the Cretaceous and Paleogene. Proposed kill mechanisms include thermal effects caused by the reentry of fast ejecta into Earth's atmosphere, dust and sulfate aerosols reducing Earth's solar insolation, ocean acidification, and metal toxicity due to the chemical make-up of the impactor. The magnitude and duration of these processes is still debated, and further evaluation of the proposed kill mechanisms requires an understanding of the mechanics of the Chicxulub impact as well as the resulting global environmental perturbations. In April and May 2016, the International Ocean Discovery Program, with co-funding from the International Continental Scientific Drilling Program, successfully cored into the Chicxulub impact crater with nearly 100% recovery. These cores include the first-ever samples of the transition from an intact peak ring through post-impact sediments. A peak ring is a discontinuous ring of mountains observed within the central basin of all large impact craters on rocky planets. Newly drilled cores include the uplifted target rocks, melt-rich impactites, hydrothermal deposits, a possible settling layer, and the resumption of carbonate sedimentation. The discovery that Chicxulub's peak ring consists of largely granitic crust uplifted by 10 km calibrates impact models and allows for observation of impact processes. At the top of the peak ring, the K-Pg boundary deposit includes a impactite sequence 130 m thick deposited by processes that range from minutes to likely years post-impact. This sequence is then overprinted by hydrothermal processes that lasted at least 100s Kyr post-impact and may have fed a subsurface ecosystem within the crater. The full recovery of life within the crater spans from immediately after impact through millions years allowing for a first-order assessment of the environmental consequences of the impact ("kill mechanisms").

An Examination of Extreme Fire Behavior and its Impact on Smoke Injection Altitude using Remote Sensing and Meteorological Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peterson, D. A.; Hyer, E. J.; Campbell, J. R.; Fromm, M. D.; Hair, J. W.; Butler, C. F.; Fenn, M. A.

2014-12-01

A variety of regional smoke forecasting applications are currently available to identify air quality, visibility, and societal impacts during large fire events. However, these systems typically assume persistent fire activity, and therefore can have large errors before, during, and after short-term periods of extreme fire behavior. This study employs a wide variety of ground, airborne, and satellite observations, including data collected during a major NASA airborne and field campaign, to examine the conditions required for both extreme spread and pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) development. Results highlight the importance of upper-level and nocturnal meteorology, as well as the limitations of traditional fire weather indices. Increasing values of fire radiative power (FRP) at the pixel and sub-pixel level are shown to systematically correspond to higher altitude smoke plumes, and an increased probability of injection above the boundary layer. Lidar data collected during the 2013 Rim Fire, one of the most severe fire events in California's history, show that high FRP observed during extreme spread can facilitate long-distance smoke transport, but fails to loft smoke to the altitude of a large pyroCb. The most extreme fire spread was also observed on days without pyroCb activity or significant regional convection. By incorporating additional fire events across North America, conflicting hypotheses surrounding the primary source of moisture during pyroCb development are examined. The majority of large pyroCbs, and therefore the highest direct injection altitude of smoke particles, is shown to occur with conditions very similar to those that produce dry thunderstorms. The current suite of automated forecasting applications predict only general trends in fire behavior, and specifically do not predict (1) extreme fire spread events and (2) injection of smoke to high altitudes. While (1) and (2) are related, results show that they are not predicted by the same set of conditions and variables. The combination of meteorology from numerical forecast models and satellite observations exhibits great potential for improving regional forecasts of fire behavior and smoke production in automated systems, especially in remote areas where detailed observations are unavailable

Large-scale wind disturbances promote tree diversity in a Central Amazon forest.

PubMed

Marra, Daniel Magnabosco; Chambers, Jeffrey Q; Higuchi, Niro; Trumbore, Susan E; Ribeiro, Gabriel H P M; Dos Santos, Joaquim; Negrón-Juárez, Robinson I; Reu, Björn; Wirth, Christian

2014-01-01

Canopy gaps created by wind-throw events, or blowdowns, create a complex mosaic of forest patches varying in disturbance intensity and recovery in the Central Amazon. Using field and remote sensing data, we investigated the short-term (four-year) effects of large (>2000 m(2)) blowdown gaps created during a single storm event in January 2005 near Manaus, Brazil, to study (i) how forest structure and composition vary with disturbance gradients and (ii) whether tree diversity is promoted by niche differentiation related to wind-throw events at the landscape scale. In the forest area affected by the blowdown, tree mortality ranged from 0 to 70%, and was highest on plateaus and slopes. Less impacted areas in the region affected by the blowdown had overlapping characteristics with a nearby unaffected forest in tree density (583 ± 46 trees ha(-1)) (mean ± 99% Confidence Interval) and basal area (26.7 ± 2.4 m(2) ha(-1)). Highly impacted areas had tree density and basal area as low as 120 trees ha(-1) and 14.9 m(2) ha(-1), respectively. In general, these structural measures correlated negatively with an index of tree mortality intensity derived from satellite imagery. Four years after the blowdown event, differences in size-distribution, fraction of resprouters, floristic composition and species diversity still correlated with disturbance measures such as tree mortality and gap size. Our results suggest that the gradients of wind disturbance intensity encompassed in large blowdown gaps (>2000 m(2)) promote tree diversity. Specialists for particular disturbance intensities existed along the entire gradient. The existence of species or genera taking an intermediate position between undisturbed and gap specialists led to a peak of rarefied richness and diversity at intermediate disturbance levels. A diverse set of species differing widely in requirements and recruitment strategies forms the initial post-disturbance cohort, thus lending a high resilience towards wind disturbances at the community level.

Historical drought patterns over Canada and their teleconnections with large-scale climate signals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asong, Zilefac Elvis; Wheater, Howard Simon; Bonsal, Barrie; Razavi, Saman; Kurkute, Sopan

2018-06-01

Drought is a recurring extreme climate event and among the most costly natural disasters in the world. This is particularly true over Canada, where drought is both a frequent and damaging phenomenon with impacts on regional water resources, agriculture, industry, aquatic ecosystems, and health. However, nationwide drought assessments are currently lacking and impacted by limited ground-based observations. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of historical droughts over the whole of Canada, including the role of large-scale teleconnections. Drought events are characterized by the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) over various temporal scales (1, 3, 6, and 12 consecutive months, 6 months from April to September, and 12 months from October to September) applied to different gridded monthly data sets for the period 1950-2013. The Mann-Kendall test, rotated empirical orthogonal function, continuous wavelet transform, and wavelet coherence analyses are used, respectively, to investigate the trend, spatio-temporal patterns, periodicity, and teleconnectivity of drought events. Results indicate that southern (northern) parts of the country experienced significant trends towards drier (wetter) conditions although substantial variability exists. Two spatially well-defined regions with different temporal evolution of droughts were identified - the Canadian Prairies and northern central Canada. The analyses also revealed the presence of a dominant periodicity of between 8 and 32 months in the Prairie region and between 8 and 40 months in the northern central region. These cycles of low-frequency variability are found to be associated principally with the Pacific-North American (PNA) and Multivariate El Niño/Southern Oscillation Index (MEI) relative to other considered large-scale climate indices. This study is the first of its kind to identify dominant periodicities in drought variability over the whole of Canada in terms of when the drought events occur, their duration, and how often they occur.

Large-Scale Wind Disturbances Promote Tree Diversity in a Central Amazon Forest

PubMed Central

Marra, Daniel Magnabosco; Chambers, Jeffrey Q.; Higuchi, Niro; Trumbore, Susan E.; Ribeiro, Gabriel H. P. M.; dos Santos, Joaquim; Negrón-Juárez, Robinson I.; Reu, Björn; Wirth, Christian

2014-01-01

Canopy gaps created by wind-throw events, or blowdowns, create a complex mosaic of forest patches varying in disturbance intensity and recovery in the Central Amazon. Using field and remote sensing data, we investigated the short-term (four-year) effects of large (>2000 m2) blowdown gaps created during a single storm event in January 2005 near Manaus, Brazil, to study (i) how forest structure and composition vary with disturbance gradients and (ii) whether tree diversity is promoted by niche differentiation related to wind-throw events at the landscape scale. In the forest area affected by the blowdown, tree mortality ranged from 0 to 70%, and was highest on plateaus and slopes. Less impacted areas in the region affected by the blowdown had overlapping characteristics with a nearby unaffected forest in tree density (583±46 trees ha−1) (mean±99% Confidence Interval) and basal area (26.7±2.4 m2 ha−1). Highly impacted areas had tree density and basal area as low as 120 trees ha−1 and 14.9 m2 ha−1, respectively. In general, these structural measures correlated negatively with an index of tree mortality intensity derived from satellite imagery. Four years after the blowdown event, differences in size-distribution, fraction of resprouters, floristic composition and species diversity still correlated with disturbance measures such as tree mortality and gap size. Our results suggest that the gradients of wind disturbance intensity encompassed in large blowdown gaps (>2000 m2) promote tree diversity. Specialists for particular disturbance intensities existed along the entire gradient. The existence of species or genera taking an intermediate position between undisturbed and gap specialists led to a peak of rarefied richness and diversity at intermediate disturbance levels. A diverse set of species differing widely in requirements and recruitment strategies forms the initial post-disturbance cohort, thus lending a high resilience towards wind disturbances at the community level. PMID:25099118

Large-Scale Wind Disturbances Promote Tree Diversity in a Central Amazon Forest

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Marra, Daniel Magnabosco; Chambers, Jeffrey Q.; Higuchi, Niro

Canopy gaps created by wind-throw events, or blowdowns, create a complex mosaic of forest patches varying in disturbance intensity and recovery in the Central Amazon. Using field and remote sensing data, we investigated the short-term (four-year) effects of large (>2000 m 2) blowdown gaps created during a single storm event in January 2005 near Manaus, Brazil, to study (i) how forest structure and composition vary with disturbance gradients and (ii) whether tree diversity is promoted by niche differentiation related to wind-throw events at the landscape scale. In the forest area affected by the blowdown, tree mortality ranged from 0 tomore » 70%, and was highest on plateaus and slopes. Less impacted areas in the region affected by the blowdown had overlapping characteristics with a nearby unaffected forest in tree density (583±46 trees ha -1) (mean±99% Confidence Interval) and basal area (26.7±2.4 m 2 ha -1). Highly impacted areas had tree density and basal area as low as 120 trees ha -1 and 14.9 m 2 ha -1, respectively. In general, these structural measures correlated negatively with an index of tree mortality intensity derived from satellite imagery. Four years after the blowdown event, differences in size-distribution, fraction of resprouters, floristic composition and species diversity still correlated with disturbance measures such as tree mortality and gap size. Our results suggest that the gradients of wind disturbance intensity encompassed in large blowdown gaps (>2000 m 2) promote tree diversity. Specialists for particular disturbance intensities existed along the entire gradient. The existence of species or genera taking an intermediate position between undisturbed and gap specialists led to a peak of rarefied richness and diversity at intermediate disturbance levels. A diverse set of species differing widely in requirements and recruitment strategies forms the initial post-disturbance cohort, thus lending a high resilience towards wind disturbances at the community level.« less

Large-Scale Wind Disturbances Promote Tree Diversity in a Central Amazon Forest

DOE PAGES

Marra, Daniel Magnabosco; Chambers, Jeffrey Q.; Higuchi, Niro; ...

2014-08-06

Canopy gaps created by wind-throw events, or blowdowns, create a complex mosaic of forest patches varying in disturbance intensity and recovery in the Central Amazon. Using field and remote sensing data, we investigated the short-term (four-year) effects of large (>2000 m 2) blowdown gaps created during a single storm event in January 2005 near Manaus, Brazil, to study (i) how forest structure and composition vary with disturbance gradients and (ii) whether tree diversity is promoted by niche differentiation related to wind-throw events at the landscape scale. In the forest area affected by the blowdown, tree mortality ranged from 0 tomore » 70%, and was highest on plateaus and slopes. Less impacted areas in the region affected by the blowdown had overlapping characteristics with a nearby unaffected forest in tree density (583±46 trees ha -1) (mean±99% Confidence Interval) and basal area (26.7±2.4 m 2 ha -1). Highly impacted areas had tree density and basal area as low as 120 trees ha -1 and 14.9 m 2 ha -1, respectively. In general, these structural measures correlated negatively with an index of tree mortality intensity derived from satellite imagery. Four years after the blowdown event, differences in size-distribution, fraction of resprouters, floristic composition and species diversity still correlated with disturbance measures such as tree mortality and gap size. Our results suggest that the gradients of wind disturbance intensity encompassed in large blowdown gaps (>2000 m 2) promote tree diversity. Specialists for particular disturbance intensities existed along the entire gradient. The existence of species or genera taking an intermediate position between undisturbed and gap specialists led to a peak of rarefied richness and diversity at intermediate disturbance levels. A diverse set of species differing widely in requirements and recruitment strategies forms the initial post-disturbance cohort, thus lending a high resilience towards wind disturbances at the community level.« less

Quantification of temperature persistence over the Northern Hemisphere land-area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pfleiderer, Peter; Coumou, Dim

2017-10-01

Extreme weather events such as heat waves and floods are damaging to society and their contribution to future climate impacts is expected to be large. Such extremes are often related to persistent local weather conditions. Weather persistence is linked to sea surface temperatures, soil-moisture (especially in summer) and large-scale circulation patterns and these factors can alter under past and future climate change. Though persistence is a key characteristic for extreme weather events, to date the climatology and potential changes in persistence have only been poorly documented. Here, we present a systematic analysis of temperature persistence for the northern hemisphere land area. We define persistence as the length of consecutive warm or cold days and use spatial clustering techniques to create regional persistence distributions. We find that persistence is longest in the Arctic and shortest in the mid-latitudes. Parameterizations of the regional persistence distributions show that they are characterized by an exponential decay with a drop in the decay rate for very persistent events, implying that feedback mechanisms are important in prolonging these events. For the mid-latitudes, we find that persistence in summer has increased over the past 60 years. The changes are particularly pronounced for prolonged events suggesting a lengthening in the duration of heat waves.

[Organization, availability and possibility of analysis of disaster data of climate related origin and its impacts on health].

PubMed

Xavier, Diego Ricardo; Barcellos, Christovam; Barros, Heglaucio da Silva; Magalhães, Monica de Avelar Figueiredo Mafra; Matos, Vanderlei Pascoal de; Pedroso, Marcel de Moraes

2014-09-01

The occurrence of disasters is often related to unforeseeable able natural processes. However, the analysis of major databases may highlight seasonal and long-term trends, as well as some spatial patterns where risks are concentrated. In this paper the process of acquiring and organizing climate-related disaster data collected by civil protection institutions and made available by the Brazilian Climate and Health Observatory is described. Preliminary analyses show the concentration of disasters caused by heavy rainfall events along the Brazilian coastline especially during the summer. Droughts have longer duration and extent, affecting large areas of the south and northeast regions of the country. These data can be used to analyze and monitor the impact of extreme climatic events on health, as well as identify the vulnerability and climate deteminants.

Tick abundance: a one year study on the impact of flood events along the banks of the river Danube, Austria.

PubMed

Weiler, Martin; Duscher, Georg Gerhard; Wetscher, Monika; Walochnik, Julia

2017-02-01

The abundance of questing ticks depends on various factors. In this study, the impact of a major flood event on tick abundance and activity was observed. Ticks were collected on a weekly basis in two approximately 2 km 2 large floodplain areas on the inner and the outer bank of the river Danube north of Vienna, Austria. In 2013 before a 200 year flood event, an average of 55 ticks per hour was collected in the area on the outer bank and 21 ticks per hour in the area on the inner bank. After the flood event the tick activity was massively reduced, with 12 ticks per hour on the outer bank and 1.1 ticks per hour on the inner bank. The most distinctive factor between the two areas was the level of sediment after the flooding, with almost no sediment in the outer bank, whereas on the inner bank the average height of sediment was 270 mm. Our data indicate the residual sediment has a greater impact on tick abundance and activity than the flooding itself. Besides the direct effect of ticks being buried under the sediment, there may be important indirect effects of the sediment on the habitat of the ticks and/or the host animals. We assume that this is the reason for the generally significantly lower numbers of questing ticks in this area on the inner bank of the Danube in this region, with periodical flood events.

Characteristics of Atmospheric River Families in California's Russian River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fish, M. A.; Wilson, A. M.; Ralph, F. M.

2017-12-01

Previous studies have shown the importance of antecedent conditions and storm duration on atmospheric river (AR) impacts in California's Russian River basin. This study concludes that successive ARs, or families of ARs, produce an enhanced streamflow response compared to individual storms. This amplifies the impacts of these storms, which contribute to 50% of the annual precipitation in the Russian River basin. Using the Modern Era Retrospective - analysis for Research and Applications 2 dataset and 228 AR events from November 2004 - April 2017 affecting Bodega Bay, CA (BBY), this study identified favorable characteristics for families vs single ARs and their associated impacts. It was found that 111 AR events ( 50%) occurred within 5 days of one another with 44 events ( 40%) occurring within 24 hours. Using the winter of 2017, which had a multitude of successive ARs in Northern California, this study evaluates the applicability of family composites using case study comparisons. The results of this study show large divergences of family composites from the overall AR pattern, depending on the time interval between events. A composite of all AR events show Bodega Bay generally south of the jet exit region, SW-NE tilt of 500mb heights and a more northerly subtropical high. ARs occurring on the same day have faster southerly winds, a weaker low off the coast and a southerly moisture plume extending along the CA coast. Comparatively ARs that occur the following day, feature a more zonal pattern with faster winds north of BBY, a deeper low off the coast and a moisture plume southwest of the Russian River watershed.

The May 1967 Great Storm and Radio Disruption Event: The Impacts We Didn't Know About

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knipp, D.

2016-12-01

Although listed as one of the most significant events of the last 80 years, the space weather storm of late May 1967 has been of mostly fading academic interest. The storm made its initial mark with a colossal solar radio burst causing radio interference at frequencies between 0.01-9.0 GHz and near-simultaneous disruptions of dayside radio communication by intense fluxes of ionizing solar X-rays. Aspects of military control and communication were immediately challenged. Within hours a solar energetic particle event disrupted high frequency communication in the polar cap. Subsequently record-setting geomagnetic and ionospheric storms compounded the disruptions. We explain how the May 1967 storm was nearly one with ultimate societal impact, were it not for the nascent efforts of the United States Air Force in expanding its terrestrial weather monitoring-analysis-warning-prediction efforts into the realm of space weather forecasting. This event is also one with severe impacts on thermospheric temperature and satellite drag. This story develops during the rapid rise of solar cycle 20 and the intense Cold War in the latter half of the 20th Century. We detail the events of late May 1967 in the intersecting categories of solar-terrestrial interactions and the political-military backdrop of the Cold War. This was one of the "Great Storms" of the 20th century, despite the lack of large geomagnetically-induced currents. Radio disruptions like those discussed here warrant the attention of today's radio-reliant, cellular-phone and satellite-navigation enabled world.

Reorientation Histories of the Terrestrial Planets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keane, J. T.; Matsuyama, I.

2016-12-01

The nature of how a planet spins is controlled by the planet's inertia tensor. In a minimum energy rotation state, planets spin about the maximum principal axis of inertia. Yet, the orientation of this axis is not often constant with time. The redistribution of mass within a planet due to both interior processes (e.g. convection, intrusive volcanism) and surface processes (e.g. extrusive volcanism, impacts) can significantly alter the planet's inertia tensor, resulting in the reorientation of the planet. This form of reorientation is also known as true polar wander. Reorientation can directly alter the topography and gravity field of a planet, generate tectonic stresses, change the insolation geometry (affecting climate and volatile stability), and modify the orientation of the planet's magnetic field. Yet, despite its significance, the reorientation histories of many planets is not well constrained. In this work, we present a new technique for using spacecraft-derived, orbital gravity measurements to directly quantify how individual large geologic features reoriented Mercury, Venus, the Moon, and Mars. When coupled with the geologic record for these respective planets, this enables us to determine the reorientation history for each planet. These mark the first comprehensive, multi-episode reorientation chronologies for these planets. The reorientation histories for the Moon and Mercury are similar; the orientation of both planets is strongly controlled by the presence of large remnant bulges (tidal/rotational for the Moon, and likely thermal for Mercury), but significantly modulated by subsequent, large impacts and volcanic events—resulting in 15° of total reorientation after their formation. Mars experienced larger reorientation due to the formation of the Tharsis rise, punctuated by smaller reorientation events from large impacts. Lastly, Venus's diminutive remnant figure and large volcanic edifices result in the largest possible reorientation events, but the exact reorientation chronology is clouded by the uncertainties of Venus's geologic record. The methodology presented here is completely general, and can be applied to any future global gravity maps of other planets or planetary satellites.

The Propagation of Solar Energetic Particles as Observed by the Stereo Spacecraft and Near Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Rosenvinge, T. T.; Richardson, I. G.; Cane, H. V.; Christian, E. R.; Cummings, A. C.; Cohen, C. M.; Leske, R. A.; Mewaldt, R. A.; Stone, E. C.; Wiedenbeck, M. E.

2014-12-01

Over 200 Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEPs) with protons > 25 MeV have been identified using data from the IMPACT HET telescopes on the STEREO A and B spacecraft and similar data from SoHO near Earth. The properties of these events are tabulated in a recent publication in Solar Physics (Richardson, et al., 2014). One of the goals of the Stereo Mission is to better understand the propagation of SEPs. The properties of events observed by multiple spacecraft on average are well-organized by the distance of the footpoints of the nominal Parker Spiral magnetic field lines passing the observing spacecraft from the parent active regions. However, some events deviate significantly from this pattern. For example, in events observed by three spacecraft, the spacecraft with the best nominal connection does not necessarily observe the highest intensity or earliest particle arrival time. We will search for such events and try to relate their behavior to non-nominal magnetic field patterns. We will look, for example, for the effects of the interplanetary current sheet, the influence of magnetic clouds which are thought to contain large magnetic loops with both ends connected to the sun (a large departure from the Parker spiral), and also whether particle propagation can be disrupted by the presence of interplanetary shocks. Reference: Richardson et al., Solar Phys. 289, 3059, 2014

Possibilities of the forecast of generation of the high energy solar protons for the safety of Mars mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avakyan, S. V.; Gaponov, V. A.; Nicol'skii, G. A.; Solov'ev, A. A.

2017-06-01

During interplanetary flight, after large solar flares, astronauts are subject to the impact of relativistic solar protons. These particles produce an especially strong effect during extravehicular activity or landing on Mars (in the future). The relativistic protons reach the orbits of the Earth and Mars with a delay of several hours relative to solar X-rays and UV radiation. In this paper, we discuss a new opportunity to predict the most dangerous events caused by Solar Cosmic Rays with protons of maximum (relativistic) energy, known in the of solar-terrestrial physics asGround Level Enhancements or Ground Level Events (GLEs). This new capability is based on a close relationship between the dangerous events and decrease ofTotal Solar Irradiance (TSI)which precedes these events. This important relationship is revealed for the first time.

Approaching Solar Maximum 24 with Stereo-Multipoint Observations of Solar Energetic Particle Events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dresing, N.; Cohen, C. M. S.; Gomez-Herrero, R.; Heber, B.; Klassen, A.; Leske, R. A.; Mason, G. M.; Mewaldt, R. A.; von Rosenvinge, T. T.

2014-01-01

Since the beginning of the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) mission at the end of 2006, the two spacecraft have now separated by more than 130? degrees from the Earth. A 360-degree view of the Sun has been possible since February 2011, providing multipoint in situ and remote sensing observations of unprecedented quality. Combining STEREO observations with near-Earth measurements allows the study of solar energetic particle (SEP) events over a wide longitudinal range with minimal radial gradient effects. This contribution provides an overview of recent results obtained by the STEREO/IMPACT team in combination with observations by the ACE and SOHO spacecraft. We focus especially on multi-spacecraft investigations of SEP events. The large longitudinal spread of electron and 3He-rich events as well as unusual anisotropies will be presented and discussed.

An Impact Ejecta Behavior Model for Small, Irregular Bodies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richardson, J. E.; Melosh, H. J.; Greenberg, R.

2003-01-01

In recent years, spacecraft observations of asteroids 951 Gaspra, 243 Ida, 253 Mathilde, and 433 Eros have shown the overriding dominance of impact processes with regard to the structure and surface morphology of these small, irregular bodies. In particular, impact ejecta play an important role in regolith formation, ranging from small particles to large blocks, as well as surface feature modification and obscuration. To investigate these processes, a numerical model has been developed based upon the impact ejecta scaling laws provided by Housen, Schmidt, and Holsapple, and modified to more properly simulate the late-stage ejection velocities and ejecta plume shape changes (ejection angle variations) shown in impact cratering experiments. A target strength parameter has also been added to allow the simulation of strength-dominated cratering events in addition to the more familiar gravity-dominated cratering events. The result is a dynamical simulation which models -- via tracer particles -- the ejecta plume behavior, ejecta blanket placement, and impact crater area resulting from a specified impact on an irregularly shaped target body, which is modeled in 3-dimensional polygon fashion. This target body can be placed in a simple rotation state about one of its principal axes, with the impact site and projectile/target parameters selected by the user. The gravitational force from the irregular target body (on each tracer particle) is determined using the polygonized surface (polyhedron) gravity technique developed by Werner.

Deep Impact: excavating comet Tempel 1.

PubMed

A'Hearn, M F; Belton, M J S; Delamere, W A; Kissel, J; Klaasen, K P; McFadden, L A; Meech, K J; Melosh, H J; Schultz, P H; Sunshine, J M; Thomas, P C; Veverka, J; Yeomans, D K; Baca, M W; Busko, I; Crockett, C J; Collins, S M; Desnoyer, M; Eberhardy, C A; Ernst, C M; Farnham, T L; Feaga, L; Groussin, O; Hampton, D; Ipatov, S I; Li, J-Y; Lindler, D; Lisse, C M; Mastrodemos, N; Owen, W M; Richardson, J E; Wellnitz, D D; White, R L

2005-10-14

Deep Impact collided with comet Tempel 1, excavating a crater controlled by gravity. The comet's outer layer is composed of 1- to 100-micrometer fine particles with negligible strength (<65 pascals). Local gravitational field and average nucleus density (600 kilograms per cubic meter) are estimated from ejecta fallback. Initial ejecta were hot (>1000 kelvins). A large increase in organic material occurred during and after the event, with smaller changes in carbon dioxide relative to water. On approach, the spacecraft observed frequent natural outbursts, a mean radius of 3.0 +/- 0.1 kilometers, smooth and rough terrain, scarps, and impact craters. A thermal map indicates a surface in equilibrium with sunlight.

Health impact assessment of industrial development projects: a spatio-temporal visualization.

PubMed

Winkler, Mirko S; Krieger, Gary R; Divall, Mark J; Singer, Burton H; Utzinger, Jürg

2012-05-01

Development and implementation of large-scale industrial projects in complex eco-epidemiological settings typically require combined environmental, social and health impact assessments. We present a generic, spatio-temporal health impact assessment (HIA) visualization, which can be readily adapted to specific projects and key stakeholders, including poorly literate communities that might be affected by consequences of a project. We illustrate how the occurrence of a variety of complex events can be utilized for stakeholder communication, awareness creation, interactive learning as well as formulating HIA research and implementation questions. Methodological features are highlighted in the context of an iron ore development in a rural part of Africa.

Modulation of equatorial Pacific westerly/easterly wind events by the Madden-Julian oscillation and convectively-coupled Rossby waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Puy, Martin; Vialard, J.; Lengaigne, M.; Guilyardi, E.

2016-04-01

Synoptic wind events in the equatorial Pacific strongly influence the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) evolution. This paper characterizes the spatio-temporal distribution of Easterly (EWEs) and Westerly Wind Events (WWEs) and quantifies their relationship with intraseasonal and interannual large-scale climate variability. We unambiguously demonstrate that the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and Convectively-coupled Rossby Waves (CRW) modulate both WWEs and EWEs occurrence probability. 86 % of WWEs occur within convective MJO and/or CRW phases and 83 % of EWEs occur within the suppressed phase of MJO and/or CRW. 41 % of WWEs and 26 % of EWEs are in particular associated with the combined occurrence of a CRW/MJO, far more than what would be expected from a random distribution (3 %). Wind events embedded within MJO phases also have a stronger impact on the ocean, due to a tendency to have a larger amplitude, zonal extent and longer duration. These findings are robust irrespective of the wind events and MJO/CRW detection methods. While WWEs and EWEs behave rather symmetrically with respect to MJO/CRW activity, the impact of ENSO on wind events is asymmetrical. The WWEs occurrence probability indeed increases when the warm pool is displaced eastward during El Niño events, an increase that can partly be related to interannual modulation of the MJO/CRW activity in the western Pacific. On the other hand, the EWEs modulation by ENSO is less robust, and strongly depends on the wind event detection method. The consequences of these results for ENSO predictability are discussed.

Quick assessment of the influence of the Hepatitis B vaccine event on children's vaccination.

PubMed

Yue, Chenyan; Sun, Xiaojin; Wei, Ning; Yu, Wenzhou; Cui, Fuqiang; Wang, Huaqing; Li, Li; Zhang, Lijie; Shi, Guoqing; An, Zhijie

2016-10-02

From December 2013 to January 2014, a large number of medias in China reported negative information about Hepatitis B vaccine (HepB) safety issues using eye-catching titles, such as "3 infants in Hunan inoculated with HepB occurred adverse event, and 2 died," and that caused crisis of confidence in vaccination, which we called "HepB event." The progress of "HepB event" could be divided into 3 stages which were initiation, peak and ending stages. In order to evaluate the influence of "HepB event" on the attitudes of participants toward Hepatitis B vaccine safety and their intention of vaccinating their children in different stages, and provide evidence for authority departments as soon as possible to take measures to prevent decrease of HepB coverage rate, a quick field investigation was carried out. Using convenience sampling methods during the initiation, peak and ending stages of the "HepB event." In the 3 stages of the "HepB event," the awareness rate of the event among participants was rapidly rising, showing that the participants paid great attention to the event, and the information was spread very quickly. The proportion of participants who knew the event but thought that the Hepatitis B vaccine was unsafe were 31%, 37% and 26% respectively in 3 stages. In addition, the acceptance of vaccination by the participants was influenced, the proportion of participants who would like to delay or reject vaccinating their children was up to 43% in the peak stage of the event. The "HepB event" had impacted on the participants' confidence in the safety of Hepatitis B vaccine. For such event, relevant authority departments need effectively communicate with the media and the public, and promptly issue positive information and the investigation result, thereby reducing the negative impact of the event, and improve the vaccine confidence among the public.

Jets in d (p )-A collisions: Color transparency or energy conservation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kordell, Michael; Majumder, Abhijit

2018-05-01

The production of jets, and high momentum hadrons from jets, produced in deuteron-Au (d -Au) collisions at the BNL Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC) and proton-Pb (p -Pb) collisions at the CERN Large Hadron Collider (LHC) are studied as a function of centrality, a measure of the impact parameter of the collision. A modified version of the event generator pythia, widely used to simulate p -p collisions, is used in conjunction with a nuclear Monte Carlo event generator which simulates the locations of the nucleons within a large nucleus. We demonstrate how events with a hard jet may be simulated, in such a way that the parton distribution function of the projectile is "frozen" during its interaction with the extended nucleus. Using our approach, we demonstrate that the puzzling enhancement seen in peripheral events at RHIC and the LHC, as well as the suppression seen in central events at the LHC, are possibly due to mis-binning of central and semicentral events, containing a jet, as peripheral events. This occurs due to the suppression of soft particle production away from the jet, caused by the depletion of energy available in a nucleon of the deuteron (in d -Au at RHIC) or in the proton (in p -Pb at LHC), after the production of a hard jet. We conclude that partonic correlations built out of simple energy conservation are responsible for such an effect, though these are sampled at the hard scale of jet production and, as such, represent smaller states.

Documentary evidence of historical floods and extreme rainfall events in Sweden 1400-1800

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Retsö, D.

2015-03-01

This article explores documentary evidence of floods and extreme rainfall events in Sweden in the pre-instrumental period (1400-1800). The survey shows that two sub-periods can be considered as flood-rich, 1590-1670 and the early 18th century. The result related to a low degree of human impact on hydrology during the period, suggests that climatic factors, such as lower temperatures and increased precipitation connected to the so-called Little Ice Age rather than large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns, should be considered as the main driver behind flood frequency and magnitude.

A summary of phase analysis on Apollo 14 samples

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fredriksson, K.; Nelen, J.; Noonan, A.; Kraut, F.

1971-01-01

The results of an analysis of lunar samples from Apollo 14 are presented. The large number of breccias returned from the Fra Mauro formation show that impact events are an important rock forming mechanism on the moon. Larger rocks as well as micro breccias bear structural resemblance to brecciated chondrites and terrestrial impactites. Many show evidence of repetitious events of break-up and accumulation welding. The surface of the regolith has become thoroughly mixed by this process. Most components however appear locally derived from basalts rich in feldspar and Kreep components, similar to rocks such as 14310.

Temporal dynamics and impact of event interactions in cyber-social populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yi-Qing; Li, Xiang

2013-03-01

The advance of information technologies provides powerful measures to digitize social interactions and facilitate quantitative investigations. To explore large-scale indoor interactions of a social population, we analyze 18 715 users' Wi-Fi access logs recorded in a Chinese university campus during 3 months, and define event interaction (EI) to characterize the concurrent interactions of multiple users inferred by their geographic coincidences—co-locating in the same small region at the same time. We propose three rules to construct a transmission graph, which depicts the topological and temporal features of event interactions. The vertex dynamics of transmission graph tells that the active durations of EIs fall into the truncated power-law distributions, which is independent on the number of involved individuals. The edge dynamics of transmission graph reports that the transmission durations present a truncated power-law pattern independent on the daily and weekly periodicities. Besides, in the aggregated transmission graph, low-degree vertices previously neglected in the aggregated static networks may participate in the large-degree EIs, which is verified by three data sets covering different sizes of social populations with various rendezvouses. This work highlights the temporal significance of event interactions in cyber-social populations.

Post Fire Vegetation Recovery in Greece after the large Drought event of 2007

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gouveia, Célia M.; Bastos, Ana; DaCamara, Carlos; Trigo, Ricardo

2013-04-01

Fire is a natural factor of Mediterranean ecosystems. However, fire regimes in the European Mediterranean areas have been changing in the last decades, mainly due to land-use changes and climate driven factors possibly associated with climatic warming (e.g. decline of precipitation, increasing temperatures but also higher frequency of heatwaves). In Greece, the fire season of 2007 was particularly devastating, achieving the new all-time record of estimated burnt area (225 734 ha), since 1980. Additionally, we must stress that prior to the summer fire season in 2007, Greece suffered an exceptional drought event. This severe drought had a strong negative impact in vegetation dynamics. Since water availability is a crucial factor in post-fire vegetation recovery, it is desirable to assess the impact that such water-stress conditions had on fire sensitivity and post-fire vegetation recovery. Based on monthly values of NDVI, at the 1km×1km spatial scale, as obtained from the VEGETATION-SPOT5 instrument, from 1999 to 2010, large burnt scars are identified in Greece, during 2007 fire season. Vegetation recovery is then assessed based on a mono parametric regression model originally developed by Gouveia et al. (2010) to identify large burnt scars in Portugal during the 2003 fire season and after applied to 2005 fire season (Bastos et al., 2012). Some large burnt areas are selected and the respective NDVI behaviour is monitored throughout the pre and the post fire period. The vegetation dynamics during the pre-fire period is analysed and related to the extreme climatic events that characterised the considered period. An analysis is made of the dependence of recovery rates on land cover types and fire damage. Finally results are compared to results already obtained for Portugal (Gouveia et al. 2010). This work emphasises the use of a simple methodology, when applied to low resolution satellite imagery in order to monitor vegetation recovery after large fires events over distinct regions of Mediterranean Europe. Gouveia C., DaCamara C.C, Trigo R.M. (2010). "Post-fire vegetation dynamics in Portugal". Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 10, 4, 673-684. Bastos A., Gouveia C., DaCamara C.C., and Trigo R.M.: Modelling post-fire vegetation recovery in Portugal.Biogeosciences, 8, 4559-4601, 2011.

Multi-decadal Hydrological Retrospective: Case study of Amazon floods and droughts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wongchuig Correa, Sly; Paiva, Rodrigo Cauduro Dias de; Espinoza, Jhan Carlo; Collischonn, Walter

2017-06-01

Recently developed methodologies such as climate reanalysis make it possible to create a historical record of climate systems. This paper proposes a methodology called Hydrological Retrospective (HR), which essentially simulates large rainfall datasets, using this as input into hydrological models to develop a record of past hydrology, making it possible to analyze past floods and droughts. We developed a methodology for the Amazon basin, where studies have shown an increase in the intensity and frequency of hydrological extreme events in recent decades. We used eight large precipitation datasets (more than 30 years) as input for a large scale hydrological and hydrodynamic model (MGB-IPH). HR products were then validated against several in situ discharge gauges controlling the main Amazon sub-basins, focusing on maximum and minimum events. For the most accurate HR, based on performance metrics, we performed a forecast skill of HR to detect floods and droughts, comparing the results with in-situ observations. A statistical temporal series trend was performed for intensity of seasonal floods and droughts in the entire Amazon basin. Results indicate that HR could represent most past extreme events well, compared with in-situ observed data, and was consistent with many events reported in literature. Because of their flow duration, some minor regional events were not reported in literature but were captured by HR. To represent past regional hydrology and seasonal hydrological extreme events, we believe it is feasible to use some large precipitation datasets such as i) climate reanalysis, which is mainly based on a land surface component, and ii) datasets based on merged products. A significant upward trend in intensity was seen in maximum annual discharge (related to floods) in western and northwestern regions and for minimum annual discharge (related to droughts) in south and central-south regions of the Amazon basin. Because of the global coverage of rainfall datasets, this methodology can be transferred to other regions for better estimation of future hydrological behavior and its impact on society.

Impacts of Stratospheric Dynamics on Atmospheric Behavior from the Ground to Space Solar Minimum and Solar Maximum

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-12-15

from the ground to space solar minimum and solar maximum 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER BAA-76-11-01 5b. GRANT NUMBER N00173-12-1G010 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT...atmospheric behavior from the ground to space under solar minimum and solar maximum conditions (Contract No.: N00173-12-1-G010 NRL) Project Summary...Dynamical response to solar radiative forcing is a crucial and poorly understood mechanisms. We propose to study the impacts of large dynamical events

Lunar and Planetary Science XXXVI, Part 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2005-01-01

Topics covered include: Ringwoodite-olivine assemblages in Dhofar L6 melt veins; Amorphization of forsterite grains due to high energy heavy ion irradiation: Implications for grain processing in ISM; Validation of AUTODYN in replicating large-scale planetary impact events; A network of geophysical observatories for mars; Modelling catastrophic floods on the surface of mars; Impact into coarse grained spheres; The diderot meteorite: The second chassignite; Galileo global color mosaics of Io; Ganymede's sulci on global and regional scales; and The cold traps near the south pole of the moon.

Major and Trace Element Variations in Impact Crater Clay from Chicxulub, Lonar, and Mistastin, Implications for the Martian Soil

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Newsom, H. E.; Nelson, M. J.; Shearer, C. K.; Rietmeijer, F. J. M.; Gakin, R.; Lee, K.

2004-01-01

The catastrophic Chicxulub event should have generated a large hydrothermal system with volatile element mobilization, producing interesting alteration materials and clays. The Yaxcopoil-1 (YAX) drill hole is located in the annular trough, about 70 km southwest of the crater center, in an area where the impactite layers are relatively thin (approx. 100 m thick). We have analyzed samples from the YAX drill core and from other impact craters including Mistastin and Lonar to determine the nature of alteration and trace element mobilization.

Drought and Fire in the Western United States: Contrasting the Causes, Distributions, and Effects of Drought in the 20th and 21st Centuries with a Multiyear Moisture Deficit Drought Index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crockett, J.; Westerling, A. L.

2016-12-01

The current drought in California is considered to be most severe drought event of the 20th and 21st century. Climate models forecast increasing temperatures in the Western United States but are less certain regarding precipitation patterns. Here we impose a novel index based on sustained, multiyear moisture deficit anomalies onto a 1/8° grid of the Western United States to investigate 1) whether California's drought is irregular in the recent history of the Western States; 2) how temperature and precipitation affected the development of large drought events; and 3) what impact did drought events have on burn area and severity of fires. Fire records were compiled from the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity database and compared to drought events since 1984. Results indicate that drought events similar in size and duration to the current drought have occurred in the West since 1918, though previous drought events were not as severe nor centered on California. Six drought events of similar size to the 2012 - 2014 drought were compared: while they were characterized by negative precipitation anomalies, only the 2012 - 2014 event exhibited temperature anomalies that increased over the drought's duration. In addition, we found that large fires ( > 1000 acres) within drought areas had greater total area burned as well as area burned at medium and high severities compared to fires in non-drought areas. Our results suggest that though uncertainty of future precipitation patterns exists, increasing temperatures will exacerbate drought severity when events do occur. In addition, understanding the relationships between droughts and fire can guide land managers to more effective fire management during drought events.

Impact of calving and ocean regime on the speed of Kangilerngata Sermia, Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kane, E.; Rignot, E. J.; Mouginot, J.; Fahnestock, M. A.

2017-12-01

Iceberg calving from Greenland glaciers is an important process of mass ablation that is poorly understood at present, mostly due to a lack of detailed observations. Realistic projections of sea level rise however hinge on precise parameterization of iceberg calving. In this work, we utilize ground portable radar interferometry (GPRI) to collect the high temporal and spatial resolution observations of a calving front to analyze changes preceding, surrounding and following calving events. A 3-week field campaign took place at Kangilerngata Sermia, Greenland, a marine-terminating glacier that has undergone rapid retreat in 2002-2010. The GPRI was deployed at 100 m elevation, 3 km from the ice front, to scan the glacier every 3 minutes. Calving events include simple shedding of ice along the ice face and larger events that detach a large piece of ice from the glacier. Two such large events were observed, one in a section of the glacier that is nearly afloat and with large subglacial discharge; another over the grounded part of the glacier. We find that the calving in the floating part of the glacier generated no disturbance on the ice flow, whereas the other event generated an immediate speed increase of 35% that lasted 5 hours and extended 0.55 km upstream of the calving event. The section of ice removed was 120 m in length and 800 m in width. We posit that the removal of basal drag from that detached piece of grounded ice was responsible for the acceleration, whereas in the case of the floating extension, there was no change in force balance of the glacier. In conjunction with these measurements, we analyzed time series of CTD data taken in front of the glacier from 2008 to 2016, in addition to output products from the JPL/ECCO project to document the impact of ice ocean interaction, especially glacial undercutting, in triggering the retreat of the glacier in deeper waters. We also analyze how the glacier may evolve in the future based on the BedMachine topography and projections of change in ocean temperature and subglacial discharge. This work was funded by a grant from NASA Cryosphere Science and by the UC Irvine Donald Bren fund.

The pathophysiology of cigarette smoking and cardiovascular disease: an update.

PubMed

Ambrose, John A; Barua, Rajat S

2004-05-19

Cigarette smoking (CS) continues to be a major health hazard, and it contributes significantly to cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Cigarette smoking impacts all phases of atherosclerosis from endothelial dysfunction to acute clinical events, the latter being largely thrombotic. Both active and passive (environmental) cigarette smoke exposure predispose to cardiovascular events. Whether there is a distinct direct dose-dependent correlation between cigarette smoke exposure and risk is debatable, as some recent experimental clinical studies have shown a non-linear relation to cigarette smoke exposure. The exact toxic components of cigarette smoke and the mechanisms involved in CS-related cardiovascular dysfunction are largely unknown, but CS increases inflammation, thrombosis, and oxidation of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Recent experimental and clinical data support the hypothesis that cigarette smoke exposure increases oxidative stress as a potential mechanism for initiating cardiovascular dysfunction.

The shackles of misfortune: social adversity assessment and representation in a chronic-disease epidemiological setting.

PubMed

Surtees, Paul G; Wainwright, Nicholas W J

2007-01-01

Research evidence is accumulating to support an association between social adversity and the development of predisease processes and physical disease outcomes. While methodological advances have been achieved in the assessment of social adversity, significant barriers remain to their adoption in chronic disease epidemiological settings consequent upon the need to limit participant burden and restrictions imposed by cohort size and cost. A large-scale population-based cohort study, as part of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer, Norfolk, UK, provided an opportunity to include a comprehensive postal assessment of social adversity. A total of 20,921 participants reported details of 16,031 adverse circumstances during childhood, 119,056 life events and 106,170 person-years of difficulties experienced during adulthood. Impact and adaptation indices were constructed from responses to questions regarding specific life events experienced. There was no evidence that younger participants reported more difficulties in childhood than those who were older, and no evidence of clustering of loss events involving the death of first degree relatives according to their recency. However, there was evidence of recall bias for events not involving loss with increased event rates observed in the few years immediately prior to questionnaire completion. Women reported similar events as more upsetting, and that they took longer to get over their effects, than men. Difficulties experienced in childhood, life events and difficulties in adulthood, event impact and adaptation were all associated with worse physical functional health. Reported slow adaptation to the effects of life events was associated with the largest decrement in physical functional health. These findings strengthen the rationale for including a collection of comprehensive social adversity data within chronic disease epidemiological settings and offer promise for aiding understanding of individual differences in physical disease aetiology.

A review of challenges to determining and demonstrating efficiency of large fire management

Treesearch

Matthew P. Thompson; Francisco Rodriguez y Silva; David E. Calkin; Michael S. Hand

2017-01-01

Characterising the impacts of wildland fire and fire suppression is critical information for fire management decision-making. Here, we focus on decisions related to the rare larger and longer-duration fire events, where the scope and scale of decision-making can be far broader than initial response efforts, and where determining and demonstrating efficiency of...

Impacts of a lengthening open water season on Alaskan coastal communities: deriving locally relevant indices from large-scale datasets and community observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rolph, Rebecca J.; Mahoney, Andrew R.; Walsh, John; Loring, Philip A.

2018-05-01

Using thresholds of physical climate variables developed from community observations, together with two large-scale datasets, we have produced local indices directly relevant to the impacts of a reduced sea ice cover on Alaska coastal communities. The indices include the number of false freeze-ups defined by transient exceedances of ice concentration prior to a corresponding exceedance that persists, false break-ups, timing of freeze-up and break-up, length of the open water duration, number of days when the winds preclude hunting via boat (wind speed threshold exceedances), the number of wind events conducive to geomorphological work or damage to infrastructure from ocean waves, and the number of these wind events with on- and along-shore components promoting water setup along the coastline. We demonstrate how community observations can inform use of large-scale datasets to derive these locally relevant indices. The two primary large-scale datasets are the Historical Sea Ice Atlas for Alaska and the atmospheric output from a regional climate model used to downscale the ERA-Interim atmospheric reanalysis. We illustrate the variability and trends of these indices by application to the rural Alaska communities of Kotzebue, Shishmaref, and Utqiaġvik (previously Barrow), although the same procedure and metrics can be applied to other coastal communities. Over the 1979-2014 time period, there has been a marked increase in the number of combined false freeze-ups and false break-ups as well as the number of days too windy for hunting via boat for all three communities, especially Utqiaġvik. At Utqiaġvik, there has been an approximate tripling of the number of wind events conducive to coastline erosion from 1979 to 2014. We have also found a delay in freeze-up and earlier break-up, leading to a lengthened open water period for all of the communities examined.

The preconditioning role of Tropical Atlantic Variability in the development of the ENSO teleconnection: implications for the prediction of Nordeste rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giannini, A.; Saravanan, R.; Chang, P.

A comparison of rainfall variability in the semi-arid Brazilian Nordeste in observations and in two sets of model simulations leads to the conclusion that the evolving interaction between Tropical Atlantic Variability (TAV) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon can explain two puzzling features of ENSO's impact on the Nordeste: (1) the event-to-event unpredictability of ENSO's impact; (2) the greater impact of cold rather than warm ENSO events during the past 50 years. The explanation is in the `preconditioning' role of Tropical Atlantic Variability. When, in seasons prior to the mature phase of ENSO, the tropical Atlantic happens to be evolving consistently with the development expected of the ENSO teleconnection, ENSO and TAV add up to force large anomalies in Nordeste rainfall. When it happens to be evolving in opposition to the canonical development of ENSO, then the net outcome is less obvious, but also less anomalous. The more frequent occurrence of tropical Atlantic conditions consistent with those that develop during a cold ENSO event, i.e. of a negative meridional sea surface temperature gradient, explains the weaker warm ENSO and stronger cold ENSO anomalies in Nordeste rainfall of the latter part of the twentieth century. Close monitoring of the evolution of the tropical Atlantic in seasons prior to the mature phase of ENSO should lead to an enhanced forecast potential.

Dynamics of Large-scale Coronal Structures as Imaged during the 2012 and 2013 Total Solar Eclipses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alzate, Nathalia; Habbal, Shadia R.; Druckmüller, Miloslav; Emmanouilidis, Constantinos; Morgan, Huw

2017-10-01

White light images acquired at the peak of solar activity cycle 24, during the total solar eclipses of 2012 November 13 and 2013 November 3, serendipitously captured erupting prominences accompanied by CMEs. Application of state-of-the-art image processing techniques revealed the intricate details of two “atypical” large-scale structures, with strikingly sharp boundaries. By complementing the processed white light eclipse images with processed images from co-temporal Solar Dynamics Observatory/AIA and SOHO/LASCO observations, we show how the shape of these atypical structures matches the shape of faint CME shock fronts, which traversed the inner corona a few hours prior to the eclipse observations. The two events were not associated with any prominence eruption but were triggered by sudden brightening events on the solar surface accompanied by sprays and jets. The discovery of the indelible impact that frequent and innocuous transient events in the low corona can have on large-scale coronal structures was enabled by the radial span of the high-resolution white light eclipse images, starting from the solar surface out to several solar radii, currently unmatched by any coronagraphic instrumentation. These findings raise the interesting question as to whether large-scale coronal structures can ever be considered stationary. They also point to the existence of a much larger number of CMEs that goes undetected from the suite of instrumentation currently observing the Sun.

Applying a Hidden Markov Model-Based Event Detection and Classification Algorithm to Apollo Lunar Seismic Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knapmeyer-Endrun, B.; Hammer, C.

2014-12-01

The seismometers that the Apollo astronauts deployed on the Moon provide the only recordings of seismic events from any extra-terrestrial body so far. These lunar events are significantly different from ones recorded on Earth, in terms of both signal shape and source processes. Thus they are a valuable test case for any experiment in planetary seismology. In this study, we analyze Apollo 16 data with a single-station event detection and classification algorithm in view of NASA's upcoming InSight mission to Mars. InSight, scheduled for launch in early 2016, has the goal to investigate Mars' internal structure by deploying a seismometer on its surface. As the mission does not feature any orbiter, continuous data will be relayed to Earth at a reduced rate. Full range data will only be available by requesting specific time-windows within a few days after the receipt of the original transmission. We apply a recently introduced algorithm based on hidden Markov models that requires only a single example waveform of each event class for training appropriate models. After constructing the prototypes we detect and classify impacts and deep and shallow moonquakes. Initial results for 1972 (year of station installation with 8 months of data) indicate a high detection rate of over 95% for impacts, of which more than 80% are classified correctly. Deep moonquakes, which occur in large amounts, but often show only very weak signals, are detected with less certainty (~70%). As there is only one weak shallow moonquake covered, results for this event class are not statistically significant. Daily adjustments of the background noise model help to reduce false alarms, which are mainly erroneous deep moonquake detections, by about 25%. The algorithm enables us to classify events that were previously listed in the catalog without classification, and, through the combined use of long period and short period data, identify some unlisted local impacts as well as at least two yet unreported deep moonquakes.

Resuscitation and Obstetrical Care to Reduce Intrapartum-Related Neonatal Deaths: A MANDATE Study.

PubMed

Kamath-Rayne, Beena D; Griffin, Jennifer B; Moran, Katelin; Jones, Bonnie; Downs, Allan; McClure, Elizabeth M; Goldenberg, Robert L; Rouse, Doris; Jobe, Alan H

2015-08-01

To evaluate the impact of neonatal resuscitation and basic obstetric care on intrapartum-related neonatal mortality in low and middle-income countries, using the mathematical model, Maternal and Neonatal Directed Assessment of Technology (MANDATE). Using MANDATE, we evaluated the impact of interventions for intrapartum-related events causing birth asphyxia (basic neonatal resuscitation, advanced neonatal care, increasing facility birth, and emergency obstetric care) when implemented in home, clinic, and hospital settings of sub-Saharan African and India for 2008. Total intrapartum-related neonatal mortality (IRNM) was acute neonatal deaths from intrapartum-related events plus late neonatal deaths from ongoing intrapartum-related injury. Introducing basic neonatal resuscitation in all settings had a large impact on decreasing IRNM. Increasing facility births and scaling up emergency obstetric care in clinics and hospitals also had a large impact on decreasing IRNM. Increasing prevalence and utilization of advanced neonatal care in hospital settings had limited impact on IRNM. The greatest improvement in IRNM was seen with widespread advanced neonatal care and basic neonatal resuscitation, scaled-up emergency obstetric care in clinics and hospitals, and increased facility deliveries, resulting in an estimated decrease in IRNM to 2.0 per 1,000 live births in India and 2.5 per 1,000 live births in sub-Saharan Africa. With more deliveries occurring in clinics and hospitals, the scale-up of obstetric care can have a greater effect than if modeled individually. Use of MANDATE enables health leaders to direct resources towards interventions that could prevent intrapartum-related deaths. A lack of widespread implementation of basic neonatal resuscitation, increased facility births, and emergency obstetric care are missed opportunities to save newborn lives.

Recent shallow moonquake and impact-triggered boulder falls on the Moon: New insights from the Schrödinger basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Senthil Kumar, P.; Sruthi, U.; Krishna, N.; Lakshmi, K. J. P.; Menon, Rajeev; Amitabh; Gopala Krishna, B.; Kring, David A.; Head, James W.; Goswami, J. N.; Kiran Kumar, A. S.

2016-02-01

Shallow moonquakes are thought to be of tectonic origin. However, the geologic structures responsible for these moonquakes are unknown. Here we report sites where moonquakes possibly occurred along young lobate scarps in the Schrödinger basin. Our analysis of Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter and Chandrayaan-1 images revealed four lobate scarps in different parts of the Schrödinger basin. The scarps crosscut small fresh impact craters (<10-30 m) suggesting a young age for the scarps. A 28 km long scarp (Scarp 1) yields a minimum age of 11 Ma based on buffered crater counting, while others are 35-82 Ma old. The topography of Scarp 1 suggests a range of horizontal shortening (10-30 m) across the fault. Two scarps are associated with boulder falls in which several boulders rolled and bounced on nearby slopes. A cluster of a large number of boulder falls near Scarp 1 indicates that the scarp was seismically active recently. A low runout efficiency of the boulders (~2.5) indicates low to moderate levels of ground shaking, which we interpret to be related to low-magnitude moonquakes in the scarp. Boulder falls are also observed in other parts of the basin, where we mapped >1500 boulders associated with trails and bouncing marks. Their origins are largely controlled by recent impact events. Ejecta rays and secondary crater chains from a 14 km diameter impact crater traversed Schrödinger and triggered significant boulder falls about 17 Ma. Therefore, a combination of recent shallow moonquakes and impact events triggered the boulder falls in the Schrödinger basin.

High altitude smoke in the NASA GISS GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Field, Robert; Luo, M.; Fromm, M.; Voulgarakis, A.; Mangeon, S.; Worden, J.

2015-01-01

High altitude smoke-plumes from large, explosive fires were discovered in the late 1990sThey can now be observed with unprecedented detail from space-borne instruments with high vertical resolution in the UTLS such as CALIOP, MLS and ACE. These events inject large quantities of pollutants into a relatively clean and dry environment They serve as unique natural experiments with which to understand, using chemical transport and composition-climate models, the chemical and radiative impacts of long-lived biomass burning emissions. We are currently studying the Black Saturday bushfires in Australia during February 2009

Coronal Heating by Magnetic Explosions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, Ronald L.; Falconer, D. A.; Porter, Jason G.; Suess, Steven T.

1998-01-01

We build a case for the persistent strong coronal heating in active regions and the pervasive quasi-steady heating of the corona in quiet regions and coronal holes being driven in basically the same way as the intense transient heating in solar flares: by explosions of sheared magnetic fields in the cores of initially closed bipoles. We begin by summarizing the observational case for exploding sheared core fields being the drivers of a wide variety of flare events, with and without coronal mass ejections. We conclude that the arrangement of an event's flare heating, whether there is a coronal mass ejection, and the time and place of the ejection relative to the flare heating are all largely determined by four elements of the form and action the magnetic field: (1) the arrangement of the impacted, interacting bipoles participating in the event, (2) which of these bipoles are active (have sheared core fields that explode) and which are passive (are heated by injection from impacted active bipoles), (3) which core field explodes first, and (4) which core-field explosions are confined within the closed field of their bipoles and which ejectively open their bipoles.

A Decision Tool that Combines Discrete Event Software Process Models with System Dynamics Pieces for Software Development Cost Estimation and Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mizell, Carolyn Barrett; Malone, Linda

2007-01-01

The development process for a large software development project is very complex and dependent on many variables that are dynamic and interrelated. Factors such as size, productivity and defect injection rates will have substantial impact on the project in terms of cost and schedule. These factors can be affected by the intricacies of the process itself as well as human behavior because the process is very labor intensive. The complex nature of the development process can be investigated with software development process models that utilize discrete event simulation to analyze the effects of process changes. The organizational environment and its effects on the workforce can be analyzed with system dynamics that utilizes continuous simulation. Each has unique strengths and the benefits of both types can be exploited by combining a system dynamics model and a discrete event process model. This paper will demonstrate how the two types of models can be combined to investigate the impacts of human resource interactions on productivity and ultimately on cost and schedule.

Beyond the extreme: Recovery dynamics following heat and drought stress in trees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruehr, N.; Duarte, A. G.; Arneth, A.

2016-12-01

Plant recovery processes following extreme events can have profound impacts on forest carbon and water cycling. However, large knowledge gaps persist on recovery dynamics of tree physiological processes following heat and drought stress. To date, few experimental studies exist that include recovery responses in stress research. We synthesized recent research on tree recovery processes related to carbon and water exchange following heat and drought stress, and show that the intensity of stress can affect the pace of recovery with large variations among tree species and processes. Following stress release, leaf water potential recovers instantaneously upon rewatering as found in most studies. Transpiration (T), stomatal conductance (gs) and photosynthesis (A) often lag behind, with lowest recovery following severe stress. Interestingly, the patterns in heat and drought stress recovery apparently differ. While A recovers generally more quickly than gs following drought, which increases water-use-efficiency, both gs and A tend to remain reduced following heat events. The pace of recovery following heat events likely depends on water availability during stress and temperature maxima reached (photosynthetic impairment at temperatures > 40°C). Slow recovery during the initial post-stress days might result from hydraulic limitation and elevated levels of abscisic acid. The mechanisms resulting in a continued impairment of T and gs during a later stage of the recovery period (from weeks up to months) are still elusive. Feedback loops from the photosynthetic machinery, reduced mesophyll conductance or leaf morphological changes may play an important role. In summary, post-stress recovery can substantially affect tree carbon and water cycling. Thus, in order to estimate the impacts of extreme climate events on forest ecosystems in the long-term, we need a better understanding of recovery dynamics and their limitations in terms of stress timing, intensity and duration.

Kinematics and dynamics of green water on a fixed platform in a large wave basin in focusing wave and random wave conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chuang, Wei-Liang; Chang, Kuang-An; Mercier, Richard

2018-06-01

Green water kinematics and dynamics due to wave impingements on a simplified geometry, fixed platform were experimentally investigated in a large, deep-water wave basin. Both plane focusing waves and random waves were employed in the generation of green water. The focusing wave condition was designed to create two consecutive plunging breaking waves with one impinging on the frontal vertical wall of the fixed platform, referred as wall impingement, and the other directly impinging on the deck surface, referred as deck impingement. The random wave condition was generated using the JONSWAP spectrum with a significant wave height approximately equal to the freeboard. A total of 179 green water events were collected in the random wave condition. By examining the green water events in random waves, three different flow types are categorized: collapse of overtopping wave, fall of bulk water, and breaking wave crest. The aerated flow velocity was measured using bubble image velocimetry, while the void fraction was measured using fiber optic reflectometry. For the plane focusing wave condition, measurements of impact pressure were synchronized with the flow velocity and void fraction measurements. The relationship between the peak pressures and the pressure rise times is examined. For the high-intensity impact in the deck impingement events, the peak pressures are observed to be proportional to the aeration levels. The maximum horizontal velocities in the green water events in random waves are well represented by the lognormal distribution. Ritter's solution is shown to quantitatively describe the green water velocity distributions under both the focusing wave condition and the random wave condition. A prediction equation for green water velocity distribution under random waves is proposed.

Self-Reported Stroke Symptoms Without a Prior Diagnosis of Stroke or TIA: A Powerful New Risk Factor for Stroke

PubMed Central

Kleindorfer, Dawn; Judd, Suzanne; Howard, Virginia J.; McClure, Leslie; Safford, Monika M.; Cushman, Mary; Rhodes, David; Howard, George

2011-01-01

Background and Purpose Previously in the REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) cohort, we found 18% of the stroke/TIA-free study population reported ≥ 1 stroke symptom (SS) at baseline. We sought to evaluate the additional impact of these stroke symptoms (SS) on risk for subsequent stroke. Methods REGARDS recruited 30,239 U.S. blacks and whites, aged 45+ in 2003–7, who are being followed every 6 months for events. All stroke events are physician-verified; those with prior diagnosed stroke or TIA are excluded from this analysis. At baseline, participants were asked six questions regarding stroke symptoms. Measured stroke risk factors were components of the Framingham Stroke Risk Score (FSRS). Results After excluding those with prior stroke or missing data, there were 24,412 participants in this analysis, with a median follow-up of 4.4 years. Participants were 39% black, 55% female, and had median age of 64 years. There were 381 physician-verified stroke events. The FSRS explained 72.0% of stroke risk; individual components explained between 0.2% (LVH) and 5.7% (age + race) of stroke risk. After adjustment for FSRS factors, SS were significantly related to stroke risk: for each SS reported, the risk of stroke increased by 21% per symptom. Discussion Among participants without self-reported stroke or TIA, prior SS are highly predictive of future stroke events. Compared to FSRS factors, the impact of SS on the prediction of future stroke was almost as large as the impact of smoking and hypertension, and larger than the impact of diabetes and heart disease. PMID:21921283

Self-reported stroke symptoms without a prior diagnosis of stroke or transient ischemic attack: a powerful new risk factor for stroke.

PubMed

Kleindorfer, Dawn; Judd, Suzanne; Howard, Virginia J; McClure, Leslie; Safford, Monika M; Cushman, Mary; Rhodes, David; Howard, George

2011-11-01

Previously in the REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) cohort, we found 18% of the stroke/transient ischemic attack-free study population reported ≥1 stroke symptom at baseline. We sought to evaluate the additional impact of these stroke symptoms on risk for subsequent stroke. REGARDS recruited 30,239 US blacks and whites, aged 45+ years in 2003 to 2007 who are being followed every 6 months for events. All stroke events are physician-verified; those with prior diagnosed stroke or transient ischemic attack are excluded from this analysis. At baseline, participants were asked 6 questions regarding stroke symptoms. Measured stroke risk factors were components of the Framingham Stroke Risk Score. After excluding those with prior stroke or missing data, there were 24,412 participants in this analysis with a median follow-up of 4.4 years. Participants were 39% black, 55% female, and had median age of 64 years. There were 381 physician-verified stroke events. The Framingham Stroke Risk Score explained 72.0% of stroke risk; individual components explained between 0.2% (left ventricular hypertrophy) and 5.7% (age+race) of stroke risk. After adjustment for Framingham Stroke Risk Score factors, stroke symptoms were significantly related to stroke risk: for each stroke symptom reported, the risk of stroke increased by 21% per symptom. Among participants without self-reported stroke or transient ischemic attack, prior stroke symptoms are highly predictive of future stroke events. Compared with Framingham Stroke Risk Score factors, the impact of stroke symptom on the prediction of future stroke was almost as large as the impact of smoking and hypertension and larger than the impact of diabetes and heart disease.

Predicting fire effects on water quality: a perspective and future needs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Hugh; Sheridan, Gary; Nyman, Petter; Langhans, Christoph; Noske, Philip; Lane, Patrick

2017-04-01

Forest environments are a globally significant source of drinking water. Fire presents a credible threat to the supply of high quality water in many forested regions. The post-fire risk to water supplies depends on storm event characteristics, vegetation cover and fire-related changes in soil infiltration and erodibility modulated by landscape position. The resulting magnitude of runoff generation, erosion and constituent flux to streams and reservoirs determines the severity of water quality impacts in combination with the physical and chemical composition of the entrained material. Research to date suggests that most post-fire water quality impacts are due to large increases in the supply of particulates (fine-grained sediment and ash) and particle-associated chemical constituents. The largest water quality impacts result from high magnitude erosion events, including debris flow processes, which typically occur in response to short duration, high intensity storm events during the recovery period. Most research to date focuses on impacts on water quality after fire. However, information on potential water quality impacts is required prior to fire events for risk planning. Moreover, changes in climate and forest management (e.g. prescribed burning) that affect fire regimes may alter water quality risks. Therefore, prediction requires spatial-temporal representation of fire and rainfall regimes coupled with information on fire-related changes to soil hydrologic parameters. Recent work has applied such an approach by combining a fire spread model with historic fire weather data in a Monte Carlo simulation to quantify probabilities associated with fire and storm events generating debris flows and fine sediment influx to a reservoir located in Victoria, Australia. Prediction of fire effects on water quality would benefit from further research in several areas. First, more work on regional-scale stochastic modelling of intersecting fire and storm events with landscape zones of erosion vulnerability is required to support quantitative evaluation of water quality risk and the effect of future changes in climate and land management. Second, we underscore previous calls for characterisation of landscape-scale domains to support regionalisation of parameter sets derived from empirical studies. Recent examples include work identifying aridity as a control of hydro-geomorphic response to fire and the use of spectral-based indices to predict spatial heterogeneity in ash loadings. Third, information on post-fire erosion from colluvial or alluvial stores is needed to determine their significance as both sediment-contaminant sinks and sources. Such sediment stores may require explicit spatial representation in risk models for some environments and sediment tracing can be used to determine their relative importance as secondary sources. Fourth, increased dating of sediment archives could provide regional datasets of fire-related erosion event frequency. Presently, the lack of such data hinders evaluation of risk models linking fire and storm events to erosion and water quality impacts.

Impacts of Central American Fires on Ozone Air Quality in Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, S. C.; Wang, Y.; Lei, R.; Talbot, R. W.

2016-12-01

Background ozone represents the portion of ozone level in one day that cannot be reduced by local emission controls. One of the important factors causing high background ozone events is wildfires. Satellite observations have documented frequent transport of wildfire smoke from Mexico and Central America to the southern US, particularly Texas, causing haze and exceedance of fine particle matters. However, the impact of those fires on background ozone in Texas is poorly understood. In this study, the effects of the Central America fire emissions in spring (Apr-May) from 2000 to 2013 on high background ozone events in Texas are investigated and quantified. We first examine through back trajectory analysis if any high background ozone days in cities of Texas such as Houston can be traced back to fire events in Central America. The GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model and its nested-grid version over North America are used to simulate the periods of the selected cases studies of Central American fires. Long-large transport of gaseous emissions (NOx, VOCs, and CO) from Central American fires are simulated and background ozone concentrations variations in Texas region due to those fire events are also quantified through the difference in model results with and without fire emissions in Central America. Finally, this study connects those fires and high background ozone events, and also quantifies the contribution of fire emissions from Central America on Texas ozone air quality.

Network analysis reveals strongly localized impacts of El Niño

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Jingfang; Meng, Jun; Ashkenazy, Yosef; Havlin, Shlomo; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim

2017-07-01

Climatic conditions influence the culture and economy of societies and the performance of economies. Specifically, El Niño as an extreme climate event is known to have notable effects on health, agriculture, industry, and conflict. Here, we construct directed and weighted climate networks based on near-surface air temperature to investigate the global impacts of El Niño and La Niña. We find that regions that are characterized by higher positive/negative network “in”-weighted links are exhibiting stronger correlations with the El Niño basin and are warmer/cooler during El Niño/La Niña periods. In contrast to non-El Niño periods, these stronger in-weighted activities are found to be concentrated in very localized areas, whereas a large fraction of the globe is not influenced by the events. The regions of localized activity vary from one El Niño (La Niña) event to another; still, some El Niño (La Niña) events are more similar to each other. We quantify this similarity using network community structure. The results and methodology reported here may be used to improve the understanding and prediction of El Niño/La Niña events and also may be applied in the investigation of other climate variables.

Network analysis reveals strongly localized impacts of El Niño.

PubMed

Fan, Jingfang; Meng, Jun; Ashkenazy, Yosef; Havlin, Shlomo; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim

2017-07-18

Climatic conditions influence the culture and economy of societies and the performance of economies. Specifically, El Niño as an extreme climate event is known to have notable effects on health, agriculture, industry, and conflict. Here, we construct directed and weighted climate networks based on near-surface air temperature to investigate the global impacts of El Niño and La Niña. We find that regions that are characterized by higher positive/negative network "in"-weighted links are exhibiting stronger correlations with the El Niño basin and are warmer/cooler during El Niño/La Niña periods. In contrast to non-El Niño periods, these stronger in-weighted activities are found to be concentrated in very localized areas, whereas a large fraction of the globe is not influenced by the events. The regions of localized activity vary from one El Niño (La Niña) event to another; still, some El Niño (La Niña) events are more similar to each other. We quantify this similarity using network community structure. The results and methodology reported here may be used to improve the understanding and prediction of El Niño/La Niña events and also may be applied in the investigation of other climate variables.

Resilience buffers the impact of traumatic events on the development of PTSD symptoms in firefighters.

PubMed

Lee, Jong-Sun; Ahn, Yeon-Soon; Jeong, Kyoung-Sook; Chae, Jeong-Ho; Choi, Kyeong-Sook

2014-06-01

Resilience is considered to be a powerful protective factor in buffering the detrimental impact of traumatic stress on the development of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). However, there is a striking lack of research concerning the development of a model of resilience, especially one including both risk and protective factors. The aim of this study was to investigate the possible mediators and moderators influencing the relationship between traumatic stress and PTSD using a moderated mediation analysis. Study participants included 552 Korean firefighters from four large cities. The subjects completed a series of self-report measures including the Life Event Checklist, the Perceived Stress Scale, the Occupational Stress Scale, the Impact of Event Scale-Revised, and the Connor-Davidson Resilience Scale. Traumatic stress had both a direct and an indirect, via perceived stress, impact on the development of PTSD symptoms. Additionally, the mediation of the association between traumatic stress and PTSD symptoms via perceived stress was moderated by individual resilience. In particular, under the same level of traumatic stress, firefighters with high levels of resilience (scores ≥75, upper 25th percentile or ≥90, upper 10th percentile) were protected from both the direct and indirect impacts of traumatic stress relative to those with lower levels of individual resilience. The current findings provide a comprehensive picture of individuals who should be considered at high risk for the development of PTSD symptoms following traumatic stress and identify the factors that should be targeted by efforts to prevent PTSD. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impacts of the Pacific Meridional Mode on Landfalling North Atlantic tropical cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Wei; Villarini, Gabriele; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Murakami, Hiroyuki

2018-02-01

This study examines the impacts of the Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM) on North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) making landfall along the coastal US, Caribbean Islands and Mexico, and provides insights on the underlying physical mechanisms using observations and model simulations. There is a statistically significant time-lagged association between spring PMM and the August-October US and Caribbean landfalling TCs. Specifically, the positive (negative) spring PMM events tend to be followed by fewer (more) TCs affecting the coastal US (especially over the Gulf of Mexico and Florida) and the Caribbean Islands. This lagged association is mainly caused by the lagged impacts of PMM on the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the subsequent impacts of ENSO on TC frequency and landfalls. Positive (negative) PMM events are largely followed by El Niño (La Niña) events, which lead to less (more) TC geneses close to the US coast (i.e., the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea); this also leads to easterly (westerly) steering flow in the vicinity of the US and Caribbean coast, which is unfavorable (favorable) to TC landfall across the Gulf of Mexico, Florida and Caribbean Islands. Perturbation simulations with the state-of-the-art Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Forecast-oriented Low Ocean Resolution Version of CM2.5 (FLOR) support the linkage between PMM and TC landfall activity. The time-lagged impacts of spring PMM on TC landfalling activity results in a new predictor to forecast seasonal TC landfall activity along the US (especially over the Gulf of Mexico and Florida) and Caribbean coastal regions.

Meteoritic and Geologic Context of the Chelyabinsk Near-Earth Asteroid Air Burst (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kring, D. A.; Swindle, T. D.; Zolensky, M. E.

2013-12-01

Estimating the hazards of potential near-Earth asteroid (NEA) air burst and impact cratering events have been difficult. Current estimates of blast damage (e.g., [1]) rely on uncertain impact energies for events like Sikhote-Alin (1947), Tunguska (1908), and Barringer Meteorite Crater (~50 ka). The Chelyabinsk air burst event of an LL-chondrite NEA on 15 February 2013 provides a calibration point for enhancing those assessments. U.S. Government sensors indicate the impacting NEA had a velocity of 18.6 km/s and kinetic energy ~440 kt [2] with a total energy of possibly 500 kt. Using average bulk densities of LL-chondrite falls (3.22 g/cm3) and S-class main belt asteroids (2.7 g/cm3) [3], we derive an average diameter of 18.6 and 20 m, respectively. If the density was similar to that of rubble-pile LL-chondritic NEA Itokawa (1.9 g/cm3 [4]) or rubble-pile binary NEAs (~1.5 g/cm3), then the diameter may have been as large as 22 to 24 m. The strength of impacting NEA may be limited to structural flaws, like fractures and material contrasts (e.g., [5]); indeed, fragmental meteoroids preferentially produce meteorite showers. Not surprisingly, Chelyabinsk is a brecciated LL-chondrite and cross-cut with impact melt veins that were generated by older collisional events. Impact-generated cataclasis produced a breccia of light-colored chondrule-bearing clasts with sub-millimeter-wide fractures and silicate-rich shock melt veins, some of which form melt pockets where they intersect. Those clasts are separated by thin, sub-millimeter-wide channels of dark-colored matrix and centimeter-wide swaths of vesiculated and heterogeneously quenched impact melt. Catastrophic fragmentation of these types of NEA can produce ground-level air blast effects if that fragmentation occurs at a sufficiently low altitude. Based on pre-Chelyabinsk scaling [1], blast damage over an area of 102 to 103 km2 is expected for a 440-500 kt event. The 20-meter-diameter Chelyabinsk meteoroid was composed of LL-type material, similar to that re-covered from the 540-m-long Itokawa asteroid [6]. Both of those NEA were derived from one or more parent bodies >100 km diameter(s). Over 5,000 samples from an LL-chondrite parent body(ies) exist. Collisional events at 4.35-3.9 Ga are well-documented and several younger events have been suggested [7]. Whether one of those events or a separate event is responsible for the impact melt in Chelyabinsk is, as yet, unclear, but Ar-Ar analyses of the clasts and melt within Chelyabinsk are underway. References: [1] Grieve R. A. F. and Kring D. A. 2007. Comet/Asteroid Impacts & Human Society, pp. 3-24. [2] http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/news/fireball_130301.html. [3] Consolmagno G. J. et al. 2008. Chemie der Erde 68:1-29. [4] Fuji-wara A. et al. 2006. Science 312:1330-1334. [5] Kring D. A. et al. 1996. Journal of Geophysical Research 101:29353-29371. [6] Nakamura T. et al. 2011. Science 333:1113-1116. [7] Swindle T. D. et al. 2013. In 40Ar/39Ar Dating: from Geochronology to Thermochronology, Archaeology to Planetary Science, in press.

A STUDY OF IMPACT OF STRESSFUL LIFE-EVENTS IN NEUROTIC PATIENTS1

PubMed Central

Gautam, Shiv; Kamal, Preet

1990-01-01

SUMMARY Stressful life events preceding neurotic disorders, their impact on neurotic patients in comparison to normal subjects and relationship of impact of stressful life-events to depression and anxiety scores were studied prospectively in 100 consecutive neurotic patients, diagnosed according to ICD-9 and 100 matched normal subjects in psychiatric O.P.D. of S.M.S. Hospital, Jaipur, by administering presumptive stressful life event scale, Beck's depression inventory and Max Hamilton anxiety rating scale. It was found that number of stressful life events was higher in neurotic patients and their impact was also perceived significantly higher in them. Significantly higher depression and anxiety scores had positive corelation to number and impact of stressful life events in-neurotic patients. Cause and effect relationship of impact of stressful life events to neuroses has been discussed. PMID:21927491

The Use of Intensity Scales In Exploiting Tsunami Historical Databases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barberopoulou, A.; Scheele, F.

2015-12-01

Post-disaster assessments for historical tsunami events (>15 years old) are either scarce or contain limited information. In this study, we are assessing ways to examine tsunami impacts by utilizing data from old events, but more importantly we examine how to best utilize information contained in tsunami historical databases, in order to provide meaningful products that describe the impact of the event. As such, a tsunami intensity scale was applied to two historical events that were observed in New Zealand (one local and one distant), in order to utilize the largest possible number of observations in our dataset. This is especially important for countries like New Zealand where the tsunami historical record is short, going back to only the 19th century, and where instrument recordings are only available for the most recent events. We found that despite a number of challenges in using intensities -uncertainties partly due to limitations of historical event data - these data with the help of GIS tools can be used to produce hazard maps and offer an alternative way to exploit tsunami historical records. Most importantly the assignment of intensities at each point of observation allows for utilization of many more observations than if one depends on physical information alone, such as water heights. We hope these results may be used towards developing a well-defined methodology for hazard assessments, and refine our knowledge for past tsunami events for which the tsunami sources are largely unknown, and also for when physical quantities describing the tsunami (e.g. water height, flood depth, run-up) are scarce.

Developing an Understanding of Victims and Violent Offenders: The Impact of Fostering Empathy.

PubMed

Peterson, Jillian K; Silver, Roxane Cohen

2015-07-03

This study explores the consequences of fostering empathy-for both victims and perpetrators-after large-scale violent events. Participants (N = 834) read a description of a school shooting and were randomly assigned to one of six conditions revealing varying amounts of background information about the victim and the perpetrator of violence. The impact of empathy on reactions toward the victim and perpetrator were then assessed. Empathy for the perpetrator could be fostered with increased information about his background, resulting in recommendations of increased leniency. Fostering empathy for the victim promoted positive community responses, including increased intentions to engage in helping behavior and make charitable donations. The degree to which participants could make sense of the violent event was also associated with decreases in blame and anger toward the perpetrator. Potential implications of the findings for news media and community coping strategies are explored. © The Author(s) 2015.

Excavating Stickney crater at Phobos

DOE PAGES

Bruck Syal, Megan; Rovny, Jared; Owen, J. Michael; ...

2016-10-24

Stickney crater, at 9 km across, dominates the morphology of ~22 km Phobos, the larger of the two moons of Mars. The Stickney impact event had global repercussions for Phobos, including extensive resurfacing and fracturing of the moon. Understanding the initial conditions and dynamical consequences of the collision is necessary to test competing hypotheses for the origin of peculiar grooved terrain that striates much of the surface. Previous modeling of the impact event was unable to replicate Stickney without globally fragmenting the satellite. We also describe high-resolution numerical simulations that successfully generate Stickney crater while maintaining the large-scale structure ofmore » Phobos. Target porosity, which is estimated to be significant, aids in keeping the moon intact. Damage follows patterns centered on Stickney that are inconsistent with the observed alignment of grooved terrain on Phobos. We ejected low-velocity boulders at shallow angles in sufficient numbers to support a rolling-boulder origin for grooved terrain.« less

Excavating Stickney crater at Phobos

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bruck Syal, Megan; Rovny, Jared; Owen, J. Michael

Stickney crater, at 9 km across, dominates the morphology of ~22 km Phobos, the larger of the two moons of Mars. The Stickney impact event had global repercussions for Phobos, including extensive resurfacing and fracturing of the moon. Understanding the initial conditions and dynamical consequences of the collision is necessary to test competing hypotheses for the origin of peculiar grooved terrain that striates much of the surface. Previous modeling of the impact event was unable to replicate Stickney without globally fragmenting the satellite. We also describe high-resolution numerical simulations that successfully generate Stickney crater while maintaining the large-scale structure ofmore » Phobos. Target porosity, which is estimated to be significant, aids in keeping the moon intact. Damage follows patterns centered on Stickney that are inconsistent with the observed alignment of grooved terrain on Phobos. We ejected low-velocity boulders at shallow angles in sufficient numbers to support a rolling-boulder origin for grooved terrain.« less

Impacts of a massive release of methane and hydrogen sulfide on oxygen and ozone during the late Permian mass extinction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaiho, Kunio; Koga, Seizi

2013-08-01

The largest mass extinction of animals and plants in both the ocean and on land occurred in the late Permian (252 Ma), largely coinciding with the largest flood basalt volcanism event in Siberia and an oceanic anoxic/euxinic event. We investigated the impacts of a massive release of methane (CH4) from the Siberian igneous province and the ocean and/or hydrogen sulfide (H2S) from the euxinic ocean on oxygen and ozone using photochemical model calculations. Our calculations indicated that an approximate of 14% decrease in atmospheric O2 levels would have occurred in the case of a large combined CH4 and H2S flux to the atmosphere, whereas an approximate of 8 to 10% decrease would have occurred from the CH4 flux and oxidation of all H2S in the ocean. The slight decrease in atmospheric O2 levels may have contributed to the extinction event. We demonstrate for the first time that a massive release of CH4 from the Siberian igneous province and a coincident massive release of CH4 and H2S did not cause ozone collapse. A collapse of stratospheric ozone leading to an increase in UV is not supported by the maximum model input levels for CH4 and H2S. These conclusions on O2 and O3 are correspondent to every H2S release percentages from the ocean to the atmosphere.

Rapid Offline-Online Post-Disaster Landslide Mapping Tool: A case study from Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olyazadeh, Roya; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Sudmeier-Rieux, Karen; Derron, Marc-Henri; Devkota, Sanjaya

2016-04-01

One of the crucial components of post disaster management is the efficient mapping of impacted areas. Here we present a tool designed to map landslides and affected objects after the earthquakes of 2015 in Nepal as well as for intense rainfall impact. Because internet is not available in many rural areas of Nepal, we developed an offline-online prototype based on Open-Source WebGIS technologies to make data on hazard impacts, including damaged infrastructure, landslides or flooding events available to authorities and the general public. This mobile application was designed as a low-cost, rapid and participatory method for recording impacts from hazard events. It is possible to record such events offline and upload them through a server, where internet connection is available. This application allows user authentication, image capturing, and information collation such as geolocation, event description, interactive mapping and finally storing all the data in the server for further analysis and visualisation. This application can be accessed by a mobile phone (Android) or a tablet as a hybrid version for both offline and online versions. The offline version has an interactive-offline map function which allows users to upload satellites image in order to improve ground truthing interpretation. After geolocation, the user can start mapping and then save recorded data into Geojson-TXT files that can be easily uploaded to the server whenever internet is available. This prototype was tested specifically for a rapid assessment of landslides and relevant land use characteristics such as roads, forest area, rivers in the Phewa Lake watershed near Pokhara, Nepal where a large number landslides were activated or reactivated after the 2015 monsoon season. More than 60 landslides were recorded during two days of field trip. Besides, it is possible to use this application for any other kind of hazard event like flood, avalanche, etc. Keywords: Offline, Online, Open source, WebGIS, Android, Post-Disaster, Landslide mapping

Super Clausius-Clapeyron scaling of extreme hourly precipitation and its relation to large-scale atmospheric conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lenderink, Geert; Barbero, Renaud; Loriaux, Jessica; Fowler, Hayley

2017-04-01

Present-day precipitation-temperature scaling relations indicate that hourly precipitation extremes may have a response to warming exceeding the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation; for The Netherlands the dependency on surface dew point temperature follows two times the CC relation corresponding to 14 % per degree. Our hypothesis - as supported by a simple physical argument presented here - is that this 2CC behaviour arises from the physics of convective clouds. So, we think that this response is due to local feedbacks related to the convective activity, while other large scale atmospheric forcing conditions remain similar except for the higher temperature (approximately uniform warming with height) and absolute humidity (corresponding to the assumption of unchanged relative humidity). To test this hypothesis, we analysed the large-scale atmospheric conditions accompanying summertime afternoon precipitation events using surface observations combined with a regional re-analysis for the data in The Netherlands. Events are precipitation measurements clustered in time and space derived from approximately 30 automatic weather stations. The hourly peak intensities of these events again reveal a 2CC scaling with the surface dew point temperature. The temperature excess of moist updrafts initialized at the surface and the maximum cloud depth are clear functions of surface dew point temperature, confirming the key role of surface humidity on convective activity. Almost no differences in relative humidity and the dry temperature lapse rate were found across the dew point temperature range, supporting our theory that 2CC scaling is mainly due to the response of convection to increases in near surface humidity, while other atmospheric conditions remain similar. Additionally, hourly precipitation extremes are on average accompanied by substantial large-scale upward motions and therefore large-scale moisture convergence, which appears to accelerate with surface dew point. This increase in large-scale moisture convergence appears to be consequence of latent heat release due to the convective activity as estimated from the quasi-geostrophic omega equation. Consequently, most hourly extremes occur in precipitation events with considerable spatial extent. Importantly, this event size appears to increase rapidly at the highest dew point temperature range, suggesting potentially strong impacts of climatic warming.

Lost Impacts (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schultz, P. H.; Stickle, A. M.

2009-12-01

The absence of a clearly identified crater (or craters) for the proposed YDB impact has raised questions concerning the reality of such an event. Geologic studies have identified impact deposits well before recognizing a causative crater (e.g., Chicxulub and Chesapeake Bay); some have yet to be discovered (e.g., Australasian tektite strewnfields). The absence of a crater, therefore, cannot be used as an argument against the reality of the YDB impact (and its possible consequences). The study here addresses how a large on-land impact during the late Pleistocene or early Holocene could avoid easy detection today. It does not argue the case for a YDB impact, since such evidence must come from the rock record. During the late Pleistocene, the receding Laurentide ice sheet still covered a significant portion of Canada. While a large (1km) body impacting vertically (90°) would penetrate such a low-impedance ice layer and excavate the substrate, an oblique impact couples more of its energy into the surface layer, thereby partially shielding the substrate. Three approaches address the effectiveness of this flak-jacket effect. First, hypervelocity impact experiments at the NASA Ames Vertical Gun Range investigated the effectiveness of low-impedance layers of different thicknesses for mitigating substrate damage. Second, selected experiments were compared with hydrocode models (see Stickle and Schultz, this volume) and extended to large scales. Third, comparisons were made with relict craters found in eroding sediment and ice covers on Mars. Oblique impacts (30 degrees) into soft particulates (no. 24 sand) covering a solid substrate (aluminum) have no effect on the final crater diameter for layer thicknesses exceeding a projectile diameter and result in only plastic deformation in the substrate. In contrast, a vertical impact requires a surface layer at least 3 times the projectile diameter to achieve the same diameter (with significant substrate damage). Oblique impacts into ice and plasticene layers over clear acrylic blocks allow assessing internal damage. These experiments reveal that low-impedance surface layers approaching 1 to 2 projectile diameters effectively shield the substrate from shock damage for impact angles less than 30 degrees. Missing craters (and relict crater roots) within ice-rich deposits on Mars illustrate the rapid erasure the impact record. Numerous small pedestal craters (crater diameter < 5km) occur at high latitudes and reflect the cyclic expansion and disappearance of polar ice/dust deposits up to 0.5 km thick. Much larger examples (> 50km), however, occur at low latitudes but are localized in certain regions where even thicker deposits (locally >2km) have been removed, uncovering a preserved Noachian landscape. Crater statistics further document this missing cratering record. Thick Pleistocene ice sheets on Earth would have played a similar role for the removal of terrestrial cratering record. We calculate that a crater as large as 15km in diameter formed by an oblique impact could have been effectively erased, except for dispersed ejecta containing shocked impactor relicts and a disturbed substrate. While plausible, evidence for specific missing events (e.g., the proposed YB impact) must be found in still-preserved ice layers and sediments.

Extreme Event impacts on Seafloor Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Canals, Miquel; Sanchez-Vidal, Anna; Calafat, Antoni; Pedrosa-Pàmies, Rut; Lastras, Galderic

2013-04-01

The Mediterranean region is among those presenting the highest concentration of cyclogenesis during the northern hemisphere winter, thus is frequently subjected to sudden events of extreme weather. The highest frequency of storm winds occur in its northwestern basin, and is associated to NE and NW storms. The occurrence of such extreme climatic events represents an opportunity of high scientific value to investigate how natural processes at their peaks of activity transfer matter and energy, as well as how impact ecosystems. Due to the approximately NE-SW orientation of the western Mediterranean coast, windforced motion coming from eastern storms generate the most intense waves and with very long fetch in the continental shelf and the coast, causing beach erosion, overwash and inundation of low-lying areas, and damage to infrastructures and coastal resources. On December 26, 2008 a huge storm afforded us the opportunity to understand the effect of storms on the deep sea ecosystems, as impacted violently an area of the Catalan coast covered by a dense network of monitoring devices including sediment traps and currentmeters. The storm, with measured wind gusts of more than 70 km h-1 and associated storm surge reaching 8 m, lead to the remobilisation of a shallow water large reservoir of marine organic carbon associated to fine particles and to its redistribution across the deep basin, and also ignited the motion of large amounts of coarse shelf sediment resulting in the abrasion and burial of benthic communities. In addition to eastern storms, increasing evidence has accumulated during the last few years showing the significance of Dense Shelf Water Cascading (DSWC), a type of marine current driven exclusively by seawater density contrast caused by strong and persistent NW winds, as a key driver of the deep Mediterranean Sea in many aspects. A network of mooring lines with sediment traps and currentmeters deployed in the Cap de Creus canyon in winter 2005-06 recorded a major DSWC event, the latest to date. Data show that DSWC modifies the properties of intermediate and deep waters, carries massive amounts of organic carbon to the basin thus fuelling the deep ecosystem, transports huge quantities of coarse and fine sedimentary particles that abrade canyon floors and rise the load of suspended particles, and also exports pollutants from the coastal area to deeper compartment. Our findings demonstrate that both types of climate-driven extreme events (coastal storms and DSWC) are highly efficient in transporting organic carbon from shallow to deep, thus contributing to its sequestration, and have the potential to tremendously impact the deep-sea ecosystems.

Extreme temperatures, foundation species, and abrupt ecosystem change: an example from an iconic seagrass ecosystem.

PubMed

Thomson, Jordan A; Burkholder, Derek A; Heithaus, Michael R; Fourqurean, James W; Fraser, Matthew W; Statton, John; Kendrick, Gary A

2015-04-01

Extreme climatic events can trigger abrupt and often lasting change in ecosystems via the reduction or elimination of foundation (i.e., habitat-forming) species. However, while the frequency/intensity of extreme events is predicted to increase under climate change, the impact of these events on many foundation species and the ecosystems they support remains poorly understood. Here, we use the iconic seagrass meadows of Shark Bay, Western Australia--a relatively pristine subtropical embayment whose dominant, canopy-forming seagrass, Amphibolis antarctica, is a temperate species growing near its low-latitude range limit--as a model system to investigate the impacts of extreme temperatures on ecosystems supported by thermally sensitive foundation species in a changing climate. Following an unprecedented marine heat wave in late summer 2010/11, A. antarctica experienced catastrophic (>90%) dieback in several regions of Shark Bay. Animal-borne video footage taken from the perspective of resident, seagrass-associated megafauna (sea turtles) revealed severe habitat degradation after the event compared with a decade earlier. This reduction in habitat quality corresponded with a decline in the health status of largely herbivorous green turtles (Chelonia mydas) in the 2 years following the heat wave, providing evidence of long-term, community-level impacts of the event. Based on these findings, and similar examples from diverse ecosystems, we argue that a generalized framework for assessing the vulnerability of ecosystems to abrupt change associated with the loss of foundation species is needed to accurately predict ecosystem trajectories in a changing climate. This includes seagrass meadows, which have received relatively little attention in this context. Novel research and monitoring methods, such as the analysis of habitat and environmental data from animal-borne video and data-logging systems, can make an important contribution to this framework. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Ar-Ar Dating of Martian Meteorite, Dhofar 378: An Early Shock Event?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Park, J.; Bogard, D. D.

2006-01-01

Martian meteorite, Dhofar 378 (Dho378) is a basaltic shergottite from Oman, weighing 15 g, and possessing a black fusion crust. Chemical similarities between Dho378 and the Los Angeles 001 shergottite suggests that they might have derived from the same Mars locale. The plagioclase in other shergottites has been converted to maskelenite by shock, but Dho378 apparently experienced even more intense shock heating, estimated at 55-75 GPa. Dho378 feldspar (approximately 43 modal %) melted, partially flowed and vesiculated, and then partially recrystallized. Areas of feldspathic glass are appreciably enriched in K, whereas individual plagioclases show a range in the Or/An ratio of approximately 0.18-0.017. Radiometric dating of martian shergottites indicate variable formation times of 160-475 Myr, whereas cosmic ray exposure (CRE) ages of shergottites indicate most were ejected from Mars within the past few Myr. Most determined Ar-39-Ar-40 ages of shergottites appear older than other radiometric ages because of the presence of large amounts of martian atmosphere or interior Ar-40. Among all types of meteorites and returned lunar rocks, the impact event that initiated the CRE age very rarely reset the Ar-Ar age. This is because a minimum time and temperature is required to facilitate Ar diffusion loss. It is generally assumed that the shock-texture characteristics in martian meteorites were produced by the impact events that ejected the rocks from Mars, although the time of these shock events (as opposed to CRE ages) are not directly dated. Here we report Ar-39-Ar-40 dating of Dho378 plagioclase. We suggest that the determined age dates the intense shock heating event this meteorite experienced, but that it was not the impact that initiated the CRE age.

High Resolution Simulation of a Colorado Rockies Extreme Snow and Rain Event in both a Current and Future Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasmussen, Roy; Ikeda, Kyoko; Liu, Changhai; Gutmann, Ethan; Gochis, David

2016-04-01

Modeling of extreme weather events often require very finely resolved treatment of atmospheric circulation structures in order to produce and localize the large moisture fluxes that result in extreme precipitation. This is particularly true for cool season orographic precipitation processes where the representation of the landform can significantly impact vertical velocity profiles and cloud moisture entrainment rates. This study presents results for high resolution regional climate modeling study of the Colorado Headwaters region using an updated version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model run at 4 km horizontal resolution and a hydrological extension package called WRF-Hydro. Previous work has shown that the WRF modeling system can produce credible depictions of winter orographic precipitation over the Colorado Rockies if run at horizontal resolutions < 6 km. Here we present results from a detailed study of an extreme springtime snowfall event that occurred along the Colorado Front Range in March 2003. Results from the impact of warming on total precipitation, snow-rain partitioning and surface hydrological fluxes (evapotranspiration and runoff) will be discussed in the context of how potential changes in temperature impact the amount of precipitation, the phase of precipitation (rain vs. snow) and the timing and amplitude of streamflow responses. The results show using the Pseudo Global Warming technique that intense precipitation rates significantly increased during the event and a significant fraction of the snowfall converts to rain which significantly amplifies the runoff response from one where runoff is produced gradually to one in which runoff is rapidly translated into streamflow values that approach significant flooding risks. Results from a new, CONUS scale high resolution climate simulation of extreme events in a current and future climate will be presented as time permits.

Investigating the Influence of Climate Changes on Rodent Communities at a Regional-Scale (MIS 1-3, Southwestern France)

PubMed Central

Royer, Aurélien; Montuire, Sophie; Legendre, Serge; Discamps, Emmanuel; Jeannet, Marcel; Lécuyer, Christophe

2016-01-01

Terrestrial ecosystems have continuously evolved throughout the Late Pleistocene and the Holocene, deeply affected by both progressive environmental and climatic modifications, as well as by abrupt and large climatic changes such as the Heinrich or Dansgaard-Oeschger events. Yet, the impacts of these different events on terrestrial mammalian communities are poorly known, as is the role played by potential refugia on geographical species distributions. This study examines community changes in rodents of southwestern France between 50 and 10 ky BP by integrating 94 dated faunal assemblages coming from 37 archaeological sites. This work reveals that faunal distributions were modified in response to abrupt and brief climatic events, such as Heinrich events, without actually modifying the rodent community on a regional scale. However, the succession of events which operated between the Late Pleistocene and the Holocene gradually led to establishing a new rodent community at the regional scale, with intermediate communities occurring between the Bølling and the Allerød. PMID:26789523

Urban particle size distributions during two contrasting dust events originating from Taklimakan and Gobi Deserts.

PubMed

Zhao, Suping; Yu, Ye; Xia, Dunsheng; Yin, Daiying; He, Jianjun; Liu, Na; Li, Fang

2015-12-01

The dust origins of the two events were identified using HYSPLIT trajectory model and MODIS and CALIPSO satellite data to understand the particle size distribution during two contrasting dust events originated from Taklimakan and Gobi deserts. The supermicron particles significantly increased during the dust events. The dust event from Gobi desert affected significantly on the particles larger than 2.5 μm, while that from Taklimakan desert impacted obviously on the particles in 1.0-2.5 μm. It is found that the particle size distributions and their modal parameters such as VMD (volume median diameter) have significant difference for varying dust origins. The dust from Taklimakan desert was finer than that from Gobi desert also probably due to other influencing factors such as mixing between dust and urban emissions. Our findings illustrated the capacity of combining in situ, satellite data and trajectory model to characterize large-scale dust plumes with a variety of aerosol parameters. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prescribed journeys through life: Cultural differences in mental time travel between Middle Easterners and Scandinavians.

PubMed

Ottsen, Christina Lundsgaard; Berntsen, Dorthe

2015-12-01

Mental time travel is the ability to remember past events and imagine future events. Here, 124 Middle Easterners and 128 Scandinavians generated important past and future events. These different societies present a unique opportunity to examine effects of culture. Findings indicate stronger influence of normative schemas and greater use of mental time travel to teach, inform and direct behaviour in the Middle East compared with Scandinavia. The Middle Easterners generated more events that corresponded to their cultural life script and that contained religious words, whereas the Scandinavians reported events with a more positive mood impact. Effects of gender were mainly found in the Middle East. Main effects of time orientation largely replicated recent findings showing that simulation of future and past events are not necessarily parallel processes. In accordance with the notion that future simulations rely on schema-based construction, important future events showed a higher overlap with life script events than past events in both cultures. In general, cross-cultural discrepancies were larger in future compared with past events. Notably, the high focus in the Middle East on sharing future events to give cultural guidance is consistent with the increased adherence to normative scripts found in this culture. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Variations in flood magnitude-effect relations and the implications for flood risk assessment and river management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hooke, J. M.

2015-12-01

In spite of major physical impacts from large floods, present river management rarely takes into account the possible dynamics and variation in magnitude-impact relations over time in flood risk mapping and assessment nor incorporates feedback effects of changes into modelling. Using examples from the literature and from field measurements over several decades in two contrasting environments, a semi-arid region and a humid-temperate region, temporal variations in channel response to flood events are evaluated. The evidence demonstrates how flood physical impacts can vary at a location over time. The factors influencing that variation on differing timescales are examined. The analysis indicates the importance of morphological changes and trajectory of adjustment in relation to thresholds, and that trends in force or resistance can take place over various timescales, altering those thresholds. Sediment supply can also change with altered connectivity upstream and changes in state of hillslope-channel coupling. It demonstrates that seasonal timing and sequence of events can affect response, particularly deposition through sediment supply. Duration can also have a significant effect and modify the magnitude relation. Lack of response or deposits in some events can mean that flood frequency using such evidence is underestimated. A framework for assessment of both past and possible future changes is provided which emphasises the uncertainty and the inconstancy of the magnitude-impact relation and highlights the dynamic factors and nature of variability that should be considered in sustainable management of river channels.

Smooth particle hydrodynamic modeling and validation for impact bird substitution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babu, Arun; Prasad, Ganesh

2018-04-01

Bird strike events incidentally occur and can at times be fatal for air frame structures. Federal Aviation Regulations (FAR) and such other ones mandates aircrafts to be modeled to withstand various levels of bird hit damages. The subject matter of this paper is numerical modeling of a soft body geometry for realistically substituting an actual bird for carrying out simulations of bird hit on target structures. Evolution of such a numerical code to effect an actual bird behavior through impact is much desired for making use of the state of the art computational facilities in simulating bird strike events. Validity, of simulations depicting bird hits, is largely dependent on the correctness of the bird model. In an impact, a set of complex and coupled dynamic interaction exists between the target and the impactor. To simplify this problem, impactor response needs to be decoupled from that of the target. This can be done by assuming and modeling the target as noncompliant. Bird is assumed as fluidic in a impact. Generated stresses in the bird body are significant than its yield stresses. Hydrodynamic theory is most ideal for describing this problem. Impactor literally flows steadily over the target for most part of this problem. The impact starts with an initial shock and falls into a radial release shock regime. Subsequently a steady flow is established in the bird body and this phase continues till the whole length of the bird body is turned around. Initial shock pressure and steady state pressure are ideal variables for comparing and validating the bird model. Spatial discretization of the bird is done using Smooth Particle Hydrodynamic (SPH) approach. This Discrete Element Model (DEM) offers significant advantages over other contemporary approaches. Thermodynamic state variable relations are established using Polynomial Equation of State (EOS). ANSYS AUTODYN is used to perform the explicit dynamic simulation of the impact event. Validation of the shock and steady pressure data for different try geometries is done against experimental and other published theoretical results, which yielded a geometry which best reflects the load values as in a real bird impact event.

Increasing climate whiplash in 21st century California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swain, D. L.; Langenbrunner, B.; Neelin, J. D.; Hall, A. D.

2017-12-01

Temperate "Mediterranean" climate regimes across the globe are particularly susceptible to wide swings between drought and flood—of which California's rapid transition from record multi-year dryness between 2012-2016 to extreme wetness during 2016-2017 provides a dramatic example. The wide-ranging human and environmental impacts of this recent "climate whiplash" event in a highly-populated, economically critical, and biodiverse region highlight the importance of understanding weather and climate extremes at both ends of the hydroclimatic spectrum. Previous studies have examined the potential contribution of anthropogenic warming to recent California extremes, but findings to date have been mixed and primarily drought-focused. Here, we use specific historical California flood and drought events as thresholds for quantifying long-term changes in precipitation extremes using a large ensemble of multi-decadal climate model simulations (CESM-LENS). We find that greenhouse gas emissions are already responsible for a detectable increase in both wet and dry extremes across portions of California, and that increasing 21st century "climate whiplash" will likely yield large increases in the frequency of both rapid "dry-to-wet" transitions and severe flood events over a wide range of timescales. This projected intensification of California's hydrological cycle would seriously challenge the region's existing water storage, conveyance, and flood control infrastructure—even absent large changes in mean precipitation.

Collisional and dynamical history of Gaspra

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Greenberg, R.; Nolan, M. C.; Bottke, W. F., Jr.; Kolvoord, R. A.

1993-01-01

Interpretation of the impact record on Gaspra requires understanding of the effects of collisions on a target body of Gaspra's size and shape, recognition of impact features that may have different morphologies from craters on larger planets, and models of the geological processes that erase and modify impact features. Crater counts on the 140 sq km of Gaspra imaged at highest resolution by the Galileo spacecraft show a steep size-frequency distribution (cumulative power-law index near -3.5) from the smallest resolvable size (150 m diameter) up through the large feature (1.5 km diameter crater) of familiar crater-like morphology. In addition, there appear to be as many as eight roughly circular concavities with diameters greater than 3 km visible on the asteroid. If we restrict our crater counts to features with traditionally recognized crater morphologies, these concavities would not be included. However, if we define craters to include any concave structures that may represent local or regional damage at an impact size, then the larger features on Gaspra are candidates for consideration. Acceptance of the multi-km features as craters has been cautious for several reasons. First, scaling laws (the physically plausible algorithms for extrapolating from experimental data) indicate that Gaspra could not have sustained such large-crater-forming impacts without being disrupted; second, aside from concavity, the larger structures have no other features (e.g. rims) that can be identified with known impact craters; and third, extrapolation of the power-law size distribution for smaller craters predicts no craters larger than 3 km over the entire surface. On the other hand, recent hydrocode modeling of impacts shows that for given impact (albeit into a sphere), the crater size is much larger than given by scaling laws. Gaspra-size bodies can sustain formation of up to 8-km craters without disruption. Besides allowing larger impact craters, this result doubles the lifetime since the last catastrophic fragmentation event up to one billion years. Events that create multi-km craters also globally damage the material structure, such that regolith is produced, whether or not Gaspra 'initially' had a regolith, contrary to other models in which initial regolith is required in order to allow current regolith. Because the globally destructive shock wave precedes basin formation, crater size is closer to the large size extrapolated from gravity-scaling rather than the strength-scaling that had earlier been assumed for such small bodies. This mechanism may also help explain the existence of Stickney on Phobos. Moreover, rejection of the large concavities as craters based on unfamiliar morphology would be premature, because (aside from Stickney) we have no other data on such large impact structures on such a small, irregular body. The eight candidate concavities cover an area greater than that counted for smaller craters, because they are most apparent where small craters cannot be seen: on low resolution images and at the limb on high resolution images. We estimate that there are at least two with diameter greater than 4 km per 140 sq km, which would have to be accounted for in any model that claims these are impact craters.

Testing the sensitivity of trade linkages in Europe to compound drought events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veldkamp, Ted; Koks, Elco; Thissen, Mark; Wahl, Thomas; Haigh, Ivan; Muis, Sanne; Ward, Philip

2017-04-01

Droughts can be defined as spatially extensive events that are characterized by temporal deficits in precipitation, soil moisture or streamflow, and have the potential to cause large direct and indirect economic losses. Many European countries face drought as an economically important hazard, with agriculture, livestock, forestry, energy, industry, and water sectors particularly at risk, causing economic losses of 139 billion US over the past 30 years. Apart from these direct impacts, business production and the flow of goods and services can be affected indirectly by droughts. With consequences that can propagate through the economic system affecting regions not directly hit by the drought event itself, or in time-periods long after the original drought event occurred. In this study, we evaluate the sensitivity of existing trade linkages between the different NUTS-2 regions in Europe to the coupled occurrence of hydro-meteorological drought events, and their associated production losses. Using a multi-regional supply-use model for Europe, we have, on a product level, insight in the existing trade linkages between NUTS-2 regions. Using this information in combination with historical drought data, we assessed and identified for a selection of water related products: 1) the dependency-structures of the NUTS-2 regions within Europe for the import and export of products (and therein water); 2) the coupled nature of drought events occurring in regions that are linked via these trade-patterns; 3) the probability of not meeting demands (on a product level) due to drought events and the associated (indirect economic) impacts; and 4) regions that lose or benefit from their selection of trade-partners given the coupled nature of drought events, as well as the net effects for Europe as a whole.

Hypervelocity impacts and magnetization of small bodies in the Solar System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Guangqing; Ahrens, Thomas J.; Hide, Raymond

1995-01-01

The observed magnetism of asteroids such as Gaspra and Ida (and other small bodies in the solar system including the Moon and meteorites) may have resulted from an impact-induced shock wave producing a thermodynamic state in which iron-nickel alloy, dispersed in a silicate matrix, is driven from the usual low-temperature, low-pressure, alpha, kaemacite, phase to the paramagnetic, epsilon (hcp), phase. The magnetization was acquired upon rarefaction and reentry into the ferromagnetic, alpha, structure. The degree of remagnetization depends on the strength of the ambient field, which may have been associated with a Solar-System-wide magnetic field. A transient field induced by the impact event itself may have resulted in a significant, or possibly, even a dominant contribution, as well. The scaling law of Housen et al. (Housen, K. R., R. M. Schmidt, and K. A. Holsapple 1991) for catastrophic asteroid impact disaggregation imposes a constraint on the degree to which small planetary bodies may be magnetized and yet survive fragmentation by the same event. Our modeling results show it is possible that Ida was magnetized when a large impact fractured a 125 +/- 22-km-radius protoasteroid to form the Koronis family. Similarly, we calculate that Gaspra could be a magnetized fragment of a 45 +/- 15 km-radius protoasteroid.

Satellite derived smoke climatology for the United States and surface particulate pollution implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaulfus, A. S.; Nair, U.; Jaffe, D. A.; Christopher, S. A.; Goodrick, S.

2017-12-01

Biomass burning smoke is a significant contributor to the degradation of air quality with well-documented impacts on the human respiratory system. Despite this, documentation of the distribution of smoke and assessing environmental impacts is largely limited to individual or seasonal events. This study presents a 12-year satellite based distribution of smoke across the Continental United States and describes seasonal and regional differences. The impact of smoke on surface fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations is quantified by the enhancement in PM2.5 over "smoke free" conditions and the relative number of Environmental Protection Agency standard exceedances in the presence of smoke. Smoke occurrence frequency is at a maximum during the summer over the northern Great Plains region of the US and least frequent over the Southwest. Approximately 20% of exceedances of the 24-hour federal standard for particulate matters occur in the presences of smoke. Particulate impacts are at a maximum in the spring and summer in the southeast and northwest respectively corresponding to regional maximums in smoke occurrence. Air quality monitor specific climatological documentation of smoke and corresponding PM2.5 has relevance in EPA exceptional event data exclusion. Near real time evaluation of the dataset can aid in impact mitigation and regulation compliance.

Changing climate in the Lake Superior region: a case study of the June 2012 flood and its effects on the western-lake water column

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minor, E. C.; Forsman, B.; Guildford, S. J.

2013-12-01

In Lake Superior, the world's largest freshwater lake by area, we are seeing annual surface-water temperature increases outpacing those of the overlying atmosphere. We are also seeing ever earlier onsets of water-column stratification (in data sets from the mid-1980s to the present). In Minnesota, including the Lake Superior watershed, precipitation patterns are also shifting toward fewer and more extreme storm events, such as the June 2012 solstice flood, which impacted the western Lake Superior basin. We are interested in how such climatological changes will affect nutrient and carbon biogeochemistry in Lake Superior. The lake is currently an oligotrophic system exhibiting light limitation of primary production in winter and spring, with summer primary production generally limited by phosphorus and sometimes co-limited by iron. Analyses in the western arm of Lake Superior showed that the June 2012 flood brought large amounts of sediment and colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) from the watershed into the lake. There was initially a ~50-fold spike in the total phosphorus concentrations (and a 5 fold spike in soluble reactive phosphorus) in flood-impacted waters. This disappeared rapidly, in large part due to sediment settling and did not lead to an increase in chlorophyll concentrations at monitored sampling sites. Instead, lake phytoplankton appeared light limited by a surface lens of warm water enriched in CDOM that persisted for over a month after the flood event itself. Our observations highlight the need for continuing research on these complex in-lake processes in order to make accurate predictions about longer term impacts of these large episodic inputs in CDOM, sediment, and nutrient loading.

A new large initial condition ensemble to assess avoided impacts in a climate mitigation scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanderson, B. M.; Tebaldi, C.; Knutti, R.; Oleson, K. W.

2014-12-01

It has recently been demonstrated that when considering timescales of up to 50 years, natural variability may play an equal role to anthropogenic forcing on subcontinental trends for a variety of climate indicators. Thus, for many questions assessing climate impacts on such time and spatial scales, it has become clear that a significant number of ensemble members may be required to produce robust statistics (and especially so for extreme events). However, large ensemble experiments to date have considered the role of variability in a single scenario, leaving uncertain the relationship between the forced climate trajectory and the variability about that path. To address this issue, we present a new, publicly available, 15 member initial condition ensemble of 21st century climate projections for the RCP 4.5 scenario using the CESM1.1 Earth System Model, which we propose as a companion project to the existing 40 member CESM large ensemble which uses the higher greenhouse gas emission future of RCP8.5. This provides a valuable data set for assessing what societal and ecological impacts might be avoided through a moderate mitigation strategy in contrast to a fossil fuel intensive future. We present some early analyses of these combined ensembles to assess to what degree the climate variability can be considered to combine linearly with the underlying forced response. In regions where there is no detectable relationship between the mean state and the variability about the mean trajectory, then linear assumptions can be trivially exploited to utilize a single ensemble or control simulation to characterize the variability in any scenario of interest. We highlight regions where there is a detectable nonlinearity in extreme event frequency, how far in the future they will be manifested and propose mechanisms to account for these effects.

Characterizing Drought Events from a Hydrological Model Ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Katie; Parry, Simon; Prudhomme, Christel; Hannaford, Jamie; Tanguy, Maliko; Barker, Lucy; Svensson, Cecilia

2017-04-01

Hydrological droughts are a slow onset natural hazard that can affect large areas. Within the United Kingdom there have been eight major drought events over the last 50 years, with several events acting at the continental scale, and covering the entire nation. Many of these events have lasted several years and had significant impacts on agriculture, the environment and the economy. Generally in the UK, due to a northwest-southeast gradient in rainfall and relief, as well as varying underlying geology, droughts tend to be most severe in the southeast, which can threaten water supplies to the capital in London. With the impacts of climate change likely to increase the severity and duration of drought events worldwide, it is crucial that we gain an understanding of the characteristics of some of the longer and more extreme droughts of the 19th and 20th centuries, so we may utilize this information in planning for the future. Hydrological models are essential both for reconstructing such events that predate streamflow records, and for use in drought forecasting. However, whilst the uncertainties involved in modelling hydrological extremes on the flooding end of the flow regime have been studied in depth over the past few decades, the uncertainties in simulating droughts and low flow events have not yet received such rigorous academic attention. The "Cascade of Uncertainty" approach has been applied to explore uncertainty and coherence across simulations of notable drought events from the past 50 years using the airGR family of daily lumped catchment models. Parameter uncertainty has been addressed using a Latin Hypercube sampled experiment of 500,000 parameter sets per model (GR4J, GR5J and GR6J), over more than 200 catchments across the UK. The best performing model parameterisations, determined using a multi-objective function approach, have then been taken forward for use in the assessment of the impact of model parameters and model structure on drought event detection and characterization. This ensemble approach allows for uncertainty estimates and confidence intervals to be explored in simulations of drought event characteristics, such as duration and severity, which would not otherwise be available from a deterministic approach. The acquired understanding of uncertainty in drought events may then be applied to historic drought reconstructions, supplying evidence which could prove vital in decision making scenarios.

A large set of potential past, present and future hydro-meteorological time series for the UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guillod, Benoit P.; Jones, Richard G.; Dadson, Simon J.; Coxon, Gemma; Bussi, Gianbattista; Freer, James; Kay, Alison L.; Massey, Neil R.; Sparrow, Sarah N.; Wallom, David C. H.; Allen, Myles R.; Hall, Jim W.

2018-01-01

Hydro-meteorological extremes such as drought and heavy precipitation can have large impacts on society and the economy. With potentially increasing risks associated with such events due to climate change, properly assessing the associated impacts and uncertainties is critical for adequate adaptation. However, the application of risk-based approaches often requires large sets of extreme events, which are not commonly available. Here, we present such a large set of hydro-meteorological time series for recent past and future conditions for the United Kingdom based on weather@home 2, a modelling framework consisting of a global climate model (GCM) driven by observed or projected sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice which is downscaled to 25 km over the European domain by a regional climate model (RCM). Sets of 100 time series are generated for each of (i) a historical baseline (1900-2006), (ii) five near-future scenarios (2020-2049) and (iii) five far-future scenarios (2070-2099). The five scenarios in each future time slice all follow the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) and sample the range of sea surface temperature and sea ice changes from CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) models. Validation of the historical baseline highlights good performance for temperature and potential evaporation, but substantial seasonal biases in mean precipitation, which are corrected using a linear approach. For extremes in low precipitation over a long accumulation period ( > 3 months) and shorter-duration high precipitation (1-30 days), the time series generally represents past statistics well. Future projections show small precipitation increases in winter but large decreases in summer on average, leading to an overall drying, consistently with the most recent UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) but larger in magnitude than the latter. Both drought and high-precipitation events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity in most regions, highlighting the need for appropriate adaptation measures. Overall, the presented dataset is a useful tool for assessing the risk associated with drought and more generally with hydro-meteorological extremes in the UK.

Mineralogic evidence for an impact event at the cretaceous-tertiary boundary

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bohor, B.F.; Foord, E.E.; Modreski, P.J.; Triplehorn, Don M.

1984-01-01

A thin claystone layer found in nonmarine rocks at the palynological Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary in eastern Montana contains an anomalously high value of iridium. The nonclay fraction is mostly quartz with minor feldspar, and some of these grains display planar features. These planar features are related to specific crystallographic directions in the quartz lattice. The shocked quartz grains also exhibit asterism and have lowered refractive indices. All these mineralogical features are characteristic of shock metamorphism and are compelling evidence that the shocked grains are the product of a high velocity impact between a large extraterrestrial body and the earth. The shocked minerals represent silicic target material injected into the stratosphere by the impact of the projectile.

Investigating the Impact of Off-Nominal Events on High-Density "Green" Arrivals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Callatine, Todd J.; Cabrall, Christopher; Kupfer, Michael; Martin, Lynne; Mercer, Joey; Palmer, Everett A.

2012-01-01

Trajectory-based controller tools developed to support a schedule-based terminal-area air traffic management (ATM) concept have been shown effective for enabling green arrivals along Area Navigation (RNAV) routes in moderately high-density traffic conditions. A recent human-in-the-loop simulation investigated the robustness of the concept and tools to off-nominal events events that lead to situations in which runway arrival schedules require adjustments and controllers can no longer use speed control alone to impose the necessary delays. Study participants included a terminal-area Traffic Management Supervisor responsible for adjusting the schedules. Sector-controller participants could issue alternate RNAV transition routes to absorb large delays. The study also included real-time winds/wind-forecast changes. The results indicate that arrival spacing accuracy, schedule conformance, and tool usage and usefulness are similar to that observed in simulations of nominal operations. However, the time and effort required to recover from an off-nominal event is highly context-sensitive, and impacted by the required schedule adjustments and control methods available for managing the evolving situation. The research suggests ways to bolster the off-nominal recovery process, and highlights challenges related to using human-in-the-loop simulation to investigate the safety and robustness of advanced ATM concepts.

The impact of the developmental timing of trauma exposure on PTSD symptoms and psychosocial functioning among older adults.

PubMed

Ogle, Christin M; Rubin, David C; Siegler, Ilene C

2013-11-01

The present study examined the impact of the developmental timing of trauma exposure on posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms and psychosocial functioning in a large sample of community-dwelling older adults (N = 1,995). Specifically, we investigated whether the negative consequences of exposure to traumatic events were greater for traumas experienced during childhood, adolescence, young adulthood, midlife, or older adulthood. Each of these developmental periods is characterized by age-related changes in cognitive and social processes that may influence psychological adjustment following trauma exposure. Results revealed that older adults who experienced their currently most distressing traumatic event during childhood exhibited more severe symptoms of PTSD and lower subjective happiness compared with older adults who experienced their most distressing trauma after the transition to adulthood. Similar findings emerged for measures of social support and coping ability. The differential effects of childhood compared with later life traumas were not fully explained by differences in cumulative trauma exposure or by differences in the objective and subjective characteristics of the events. Our findings demonstrate the enduring nature of traumatic events encountered early in the life course and underscore the importance of examining the developmental context of trauma exposure in investigations of the long-term consequences of traumatic experiences.

Geological and Geomorphological Impacts of Two Large Typhoons from the Central Coast Of Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Switzer, A. D.; Gouramanis, C.; Dura, T.; Lam, D. D.; Hoang, L. V.; Sloss, C. R.; Hoang, Q. D.; Lee, Y. S.; Chan, M. M.; Pham, D. T.

2011-12-01

Typhoons Xangsane (2006) and Ketsana (2009) left behind geological and geomorphic evidence of their landfall in central Vietnam. In both instances, the events caused the evacuation of several hundred thousand people, considerable deaths (at least 70 and 160, respectively) and damages to infrastructure of more than US$600 million each time. Storm surges and waves associated with both events left sandsheet deposits and scattered cobble to boulder size clasts on the coastal landscape. This study details the first investigation of multiple storm deposits from the Vietnamese coast. These deposits provide modern analogues for the study of past events regionally and globally. In each situation, the deposits show characteristics unique to their setting. In one location, Canh Duong Village, at the northern end of Chan May embayment, the Xangsane event deposited well-defined populations of cobbles (rock) and soil clasts that allows the identification of the sediment source. In a second location, several hundred meters west of Chan May Port and at the southern end of the embayment, the presence of a large tree stump with encrusting intertidal bivalve molluscs and tube worms provides a minimum transport distance for the Ketsana event. When combined with generic information on the extent, height above sea level and sedimentary properties of the storm-deposited sandsheets, the unique qualities of the different deposits allow an accurate reconstruction of the inundation characteristics of these recent storms.

Evaluating the anthropogenic impacts on fluvial flood risks in a coastal mega-city during its transitional economy (1979-2009): the interaction between land subsidence, urbanization and structural measures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Dapeng; Yin, Jie

2014-05-01

Flood risk in a specific geographical location is a function of the interaction between various natural (e.g. rainfall, sea-level rise) and anthropogenic processes (e.g. land subsidence and urbanization). These processes, whether a driver or an alleviating factor, often encompass a large degree of spatial and temporal variability. Looking at a specific process in isolation is likely to provide an incomplete picture of the risks. This paper describes a novel approach to the evaluation of anthropogenic impacts on flood risks in coastal mega-cities by incorporating three anthropogenic variables (land subsidence, urbanization and flood defence) within a scenario-based framework where numerical modelling was undertaken to quantify the risks. The evolving risks at four time points (1979, 1990, 2000 and 2009) were assessed for the Huangpu River floodplain where the City of Shanghai is located. Distributed data of land subsidence rate, urbanization rate and flood defence heights were obtained. Scenarios were designed by representing the rate of land subsidence and flood defence height through the modification of DEM. Effect of urbanization is represented by a roughness parameter in the model simulations. A 2D hydrodynamic model (FloodMap-Inertial) was used to estimate the flood risks associated with each scenario. Flood events with various return periods (10-, 100- and 1000-year) were designed based on a one in 50 year flood event occurred in Shanghai in August 1997. Results demonstrate the individual as well as the combined impacts of the three anthropogenic factors on the changing fluvial flood risks in the Huangpu River basin over the last three decades during the city's transitional economy (1979-2009). Land subsidence and urbanization were found to lead to proportionate but non-linear impact on flood risks due to their complex spatial and temporal interaction. The impacts and their sensitivity are the function of the rate & spatial distribution of each evolving factor. They also manifest differently in floods of different magnitude. While the pattern of response to individual anthropogenic variables is largely expected, the combined impacts demonstrate greater spatial and temporal variation. Flood defences offer considerable benefits in reducing the total inundated areas in the Huangpu River basin over the periods considered, for all magnitude floods. This, to a large extent, alleviates the adverse impacts arising from land subsidence and urbanization. However, even with an enclosed and completed defence system in 2009, extensive flood inundation is still expected for a 10-year event, albeit largely restricted to the upstream of the river where urban settlements are limited. The scenario-based approach described herein could be adopted for applications in other urbanized and subsided coastal floodplains, especially in places where the rate of land subsidence is still accelerating, urbanization is still undergoing and the local sea level keeps rising. Risk scenarios that encompass probable future anthropogenic projections may assist decision makers and other concerned stakeholders in better understanding the underlying drivers of changing flood risks, and thus help to design proper adaptation options for sustainable flood risk management and urban planning.

Extraterrestrial Impact Episodes and Archaean to Early Proterozoic (3.8 2.4 Ga) Habitats of Life

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glikson, Andrew

The terrestrial record is punctuated by major clustered asteroid and comet impacts, which affected the appearance, episodic extinction, radiation, and reemergence of biogenic habitats. Here I examine manifest and potential extraterrestrial impact effects on the onset and evolution of Archaean to early Proterozoic (3.8- 2.4-Ga) habitats, with reference to the Pilbara (Western Australia) and Kaapvaal (eastern Transvaal) Cratons. The range of extraterrestrial connections of microbial habitats includes cometary contribution of volatiles and amino acids, sterilization by intense asteroid and comet bombardment, supernova and solar flares, and impacttriggered volcanic and hydrothermal activity, tectonic modifications, and tsunami effects. Whereas cometary dusting of planetary atmosphere may contribute littlemodi fied extraterrestrial organic components, large impact effects result in both incineration of organic molecules and shock synthesis of new components. From projected impact incidence, ~1.3% of craters >100 km and ~3.8% of craters >250 km have to date been identified for post-3.8-Ga events, due to the mm-scale of impact spherules and the difficulty in their identification in the field - only the tip of the iceberg is observed regarding the effects of large impacts on the Precambrian biosphere, to date no direct or genetic relations between impacts and the onset or extinction of early Precambrian habitats can be confirmed. However, potential relations include (1) ~3.5-3.43 Ga - intermittent appearance of stromatolite-like structures of possible biogenic origin on felsic volcanic shoals representing intervals between mafic volcanic episodes in rapidly subsiding basins, a period during which asteroid impacts are recorded; (2) ~3.26-3.225 Ga - impact-triggered crustal transformation from mafic-ultramafic volcanic environments to rifted troughs dominated by felsic volcanics and turbidites, marked by a major magmatic peak, resulting in extensive hydrothermal activity and development of sulphate-reducing microbes around anoxic submarine fumarole ("black smoker") environments; (3) ~2.63-2.47 Ga - impact-triggered tsunami effects in oxygenated carbonate-dominated epicontinental and intracratonic environments (Hamersley and Transvaal basins); (4) in at least three instances onset of ferruginous sedimentation closely following major impact events, possibly signifying hydrothermal Fe-enrichment related to impact-triggered volcanic activity. Due to limitations on the phylogenic speciation of Precambrian stromatolite and bacterial populations, major impact-extinction-radiation relations are identified only from the late Proterozoic, beginning with the ~0.

Long-Term Cognitive and Neuropsychiatric Consequences of Repetitive Concussion and Head-Impact Exposure.

PubMed

McAllister, Thomas; McCrea, Michael

2017-03-01

Initially, interest in sport-related concussion arose from the premise that the study of athletes engaged in sports associated with high rates of concussion could provide insight into the mechanisms, phenomenology, and recovery from mild traumatic brain injury. Over the last decade, concerns have focused on the possibility that, for some athletes, repetitive concussions may raise the long-term risk for cognitive decline, neurobehavioral changes, and neurodegenerative disease. First conceptualized as a discrete event with variable recovery trajectories, concussion is now viewed by some as a trigger of neurobiological events that may influence neurobehavioral function over the course of the life span. Furthermore, advances in technology now permit us to gain a detailed understanding of the frequency and intensity of repetitive head impacts associated with contact sports (eg, football, ice hockey). Helmet-based sensors can be used to characterize the kinematic features of concussive impacts, as well as the profiles of typical head-impact exposures experienced by athletes in routine sport participation. Many large-magnitude impacts are not associated with diagnosed concussions, whereas many diagnosed concussions are associated with more modest impacts. Therefore, a full understanding of this topic requires attention to not only the effects of repetitive concussions but also overall exposure to repetitive head impacts. This article is a review of the current state of the science on the long-term neurocognitive and neurobehavioral effects of repetitive concussion and head-impact exposure in contact sports.

Long-Term Cognitive and Neuropsychiatric Consequences of Repetitive Concussion and Head-Impact Exposure

PubMed Central

McAllister, Thomas; McCrea, Michael

2017-01-01

Initially, interest in sport-related concussion arose from the premise that the study of athletes engaged in sports associated with high rates of concussion could provide insight into the mechanisms, phenomenology, and recovery from mild traumatic brain injury. Over the last decade, concerns have focused on the possibility that, for some athletes, repetitive concussions may raise the long-term risk for cognitive decline, neurobehavioral changes, and neurodegenerative disease. First conceptualized as a discrete event with variable recovery trajectories, concussion is now viewed by some as a trigger of neurobiological events that may influence neurobehavioral function over the course of the life span. Furthermore, advances in technology now permit us to gain a detailed understanding of the frequency and intensity of repetitive head impacts associated with contact sports (eg, football, ice hockey). Helmet-based sensors can be used to characterize the kinematic features of concussive impacts, as well as the profiles of typical head-impact exposures experienced by athletes in routine sport participation. Many large-magnitude impacts are not associated with diagnosed concussions, whereas many diagnosed concussions are associated with more modest impacts. Therefore, a full understanding of this topic requires attention to not only the effects of repetitive concussions but also overall exposure to repetitive head impacts. This article is a review of the current state of the science on the long-term neurocognitive and neurobehavioral effects of repetitive concussion and head-impact exposure in contact sports. PMID:28387556

Late Eocene impact events recorded in deep-sea sediments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Glass, B. P.

1988-01-01

Raup and Sepkoski proposed that mass extinctions have occurred every 26 Myr during the last 250 Myr. In order to explain this 26 Myr periodicity, it was proposed that the mass extinctions were caused by periodic increases in cometary impacts. One method to test this hypothesis is to determine if there were periodic increases in impact events (based on crater ages) that correlate with mass extinctions. A way to test the hypothesis that mass extinctions were caused by periodic increases in impact cratering is to look for evidence of impact events in deep-sea deposits. This method allows direct observation of the temporal relationship between impact events and extinctions as recorded in the sedimentary record. There is evidence in the deep-sea record for two (possibly three) impact events in the late Eocene. The younger event, represented by the North American microtektite layer, is not associated with an Ir anomaly. The older event, defined by the cpx spherule layer, is associated with an Ir anomaly. However, neither of the two impact events recorded in late Eocene deposits appears to be associated with an unusual number of extinctions. Thus there is little evidence in the deep-sea record for an impact-related mass extinction in the late Eocene.

The impact of Hurricane Sandy on the shoreface and inner shelf of Fire Island, New York: large bedform migration but limited erosion

USGS Publications Warehouse

Goff, John A.; Flood, Roger D.; Austin, James A.; Schwab, William C.; Christensen, Beth A.; Browne, Cassandra M.; Denny, Jane F.; Baldwin, Wayne E.

2015-01-01

We investigate the impact of superstorm Sandy on the lower shoreface and inner shelf offshore the barrier island system of Fire Island, NY using before-and-after surveys involving swath bathymetry, backscatter and CHIRP acoustic reflection data. As sea level rises over the long term, the shoreface and inner shelf are eroded as barrier islands migrate landward; large storms like Sandy are thought to be a primary driver of this largely evolutionary process. The “before” data were collected in 2011 by the U.S. Geological Survey as part of a long-term investigation of the Fire Island barrier system. The “after” data were collected in January, 2013, ~two months after the storm. Surprisingly, no widespread erosional event was observed. Rather, the primary impact of Sandy on the shoreface and inner shelf was to force migration of major bedforms (sand ridges and sorted bedforms) 10’s of meters WSW alongshore, decreasing in migration distance with increasing water depth. Although greater in rate, this migratory behavior is no different than observations made over the 15-year span prior to the 2011 survey. Stratigraphic observations of buried, offshore-thinning fluvial channels indicate that long-term erosion of older sediments is focused in water depths ranging from the base of the shoreface (~13–16 m) to ~21 m on the inner shelf, which is coincident with the range of depth over which sand ridges and sorted bedforms migrated in response to Sandy. We hypothesize that bedform migration regulates erosion over these water depths and controls the formation of a widely observed transgressive ravinement; focusing erosion of older material occurs at the base of the stoss (upcurrent) flank of the bedforms. Secondary storm impacts include the formation of ephemeral hummocky bedforms and the deposition of a mud event layer.

Plasma Observations During the Mars Atmospheric Plume Event of March-April 2012

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Andrews, D. J.; Barabash, S.; Edberg, N. J. T.; Gurnett, D. A.; Hall, B. E. S.; Holmstrom, M.; Lester, M.; Morgan, D. D.; Opgenoorth, H. J.; Ramstad, R.;

Environmental consequences of impact cratering events as a function of ambient conditions on Earth.

PubMed

Kring, David A

2003-01-01

The end of the Mesozoic Era is defined by a dramatic floral and faunal turnover that has been linked with the Chicxulub impact event, thus leading to the realization that impact cratering can affect both the geologic and biologic evolution of Earth. However, the environmental consequences of an impact event and any subsequent biological effects rely on several factors, including the ambient environmental conditions and the extant ecosystem structures at the time of impact. Some of the severest environmental perturbations of the Chicxulub impact event would not have been significant in some periods of Earth history. Consequently, the environmental and biological effects of an impact event must be evaluated in the context in which it occurs.

Investigation on the characteristics of seismic events observed during stimulation of geothermal reservoirs at Basel, Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukuhira, Y.; Asanuma, H.; Niitsuma, H.; Häring, M. O.

2011-12-01

Hydraulic stimulation is commonly used to develop engineered geothermal systems (EGS) and enhancement of oil recovery (EOR). Occurrence of seismic events with larger magnitude has been highlighted as one of the practical and critical problems. Some seismic events with moment magnitude (Mw) larger than 2.0 occurred during and after hydraulic stimulation in Basel, Switzerland, in 2006, and these large events led to the geothermal project discontinued. We defined the large event as seismic events with Mw>2.0, and have investigated fundamental characteristics of them as summarized in Table 1. It has been revealed that the characteristics of the large events are dependent on hypocentral location and origin time. We also found most of the large events occurred from 2 types of fracture planes: 6 of 9large events had FPSs with N-S azimuth. Other 3 large events including the largest events had FPSs ESE-WNW azimuth, which can be interpreted as "most slip-able" under stress state at Basel. The large events clearly followed "constant stress drop scaling law". We also estimated critical pore pressure for shear slip using Coulomb failure criterion, and have revealed that the critical pore pressure of the large events was relatively lower. Our result shows that the occurrences of the large events can not be simply interpreted by previous experience on induced seismicity.

Perception-based Impact upon Community Resilience in the Aftermath of Natural Disasters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandez, S.; Li, H.

2008-05-01

In the event of natural disasters, recovery from the direct and indirect effects of the disaster phenomena are topics of most community emergency response plans. In addition to the direct and indirect impacts that represent changes in activity that can be tied directly to an event, additional perception-based impacts are possible. Usually these perception-based impacts are larger and more difficult to measure or mitigate than direct impacts. These impacts are based primarily on the affected population's changes in attitudes toward a particular neighborhood or region based on fear of a future event or future losses. These impacts can be motivated by fear of future storms or man-caused events, lingering toxic contamination that may or may not have been removed, and any other behavior by individuals that cannot be explained by actual events or calculated measures of risk or uncertainty. Perception-based impacts are often difficult to estimate directly. In many instaces, case studies of comparable events are used to attempt to develop judgemental estimates of possible future impacts on the area of question. For example, impacts from such events as Love Canal, the Three Mile Island nucear accident, the September 11 attacks, and the Goiana radioactive material spill are used to get a sense of the severity and duration of possible perception-based impacts of a particular event. Perception-based impacts can include additional losses in property value, losses in population (or reduced rates of population due to lower migration rates) that cannot be attributed to actual economic and demographic changes that can be tied to the event directly. Additional perception-based impacts can include long-term worker absenteeism by an asymptomatic public (i.e., the worried well), losses in tourism, losses in cargo at transportation hubs due to fears by shippers and recipients who choose alternative modes of transportation for shipping goods into the affected area. Another proxy for perception-based impacts from man-caused events can be additional security expenditures by government, the private sector, and individuals. This presentation will describe potential methodologies for estimating or anticipating these potential events for generic planning scenarios.

Missing in Action? Evaluating the Putative Absence of Impacts by Large Asteroids and Comets during the Quaternary Period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masse, W.; Weaver, R.; Abbott, D.; Gusiakov, V.; Bryant, E.

The Quaternary period represents the interval of oscillating climatic extremes (glacial and interglacial periods) beginning about 2.6 million years ago to the present. Based on modeling by the Near Earth Object (NEO) community of planetary scientists, the known and validated record of Quaternary impact on Earth by comets and asteroids is seemingly depauperate in terms of larger impactors of 10,000+ Mt (roughly equal to or larger than about 500 m in diameter). Modeling suggests that an average of between 2-3 and perhaps as many as 5 globally catastrophic (ca. 1,000,000+ Mt) impacts by asteroids and comets could have occurred on Earth during this period of time, each having catastrophic regional environmental effects and moderate to severe continental and global effects. A slightly larger number of substantive but somewhat less than globally catastrophic impacts in the 10,000-100,000 Mt range would also be predicted to have occurred during the Quaternary. However, databases of validated impact structures on Earth, contain only two examples of Quaternary period impacts in the 10,000-100,000 Mt range (Zhamanshin, Bosumtwi), dating to around a million years ago, while no examples of Quaternary period globally catastrophic impact structures have been yet identified. In addition, all of the 27 validated Quaternary period impact structures are terrestrial--no Quaternary period oceanic impacts have been yet validated. Two likely globally catastrophic probable oceanic impacts events, Eltanin (ca. 1,000,000 Mt at around 2.5 mya), and that associated with the Australasian tektite strewn field (> 1,000,000 Mt at around 0.8 mya), are known due to their debris fields for which craters have not yet been identified and validated. These and the 8-km diameter Bolivian Iturralde candidate impact structure (ca. 10,000 Mt at around 20 kya) round out our list of likely large Quaternary impact structures. This suggests that one or more Quaternary period globally catastrophic impacts and several events in the 10,000-100,000 Mt range occurred in oceanic settings and have not yet been identified. At issue here is the default position of the NEO community that no large impacts have occurred during the past 15,000 years and that there is little evidence for human death by impacts during the past 5000 years of recorded history. This bias, deriving largely from reliance on stochastic models and by selectively ignoring physical, anthropological, and archaeological evidence in support of such impacts, is apparent in the messages being given to the media and general public, and in the general lack of grant support and other assistance to scientists and scholars wishing to conduct fieldwork on impacts that may date to the past 15,000 years. Such a position has a chilling effect on what should otherwise be an important arena of inquiry into the risks and effects of cosmic impact on human society. It potentially limits advancement in our understanding of the recent record and flux of cosmic impact, and diverts attention away from significant research questions such as the possible role of impact in Quaternary period climate change and biological and cultural evolution and process. LA-UR-07-2526.

Spatial and temporal controls of atoll island inundation: implications for urbanized atolls in the Marshall Islands.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ford, M.; Becker, J. M.; Merrifield, M. A.

2012-12-01

Atoll islands are highly vulnerable to a range of inundation hazards. The impacts of such hazards are expected to be magnified as a result of continued sea-level rise. Both recent and historic inundation events provide unique insights into the requisite conditions necessary to initiate island inundation. A number of recent and historic inundation events are presented in order to examine the oceanographic and meteorological conditions driving inundation of a densely populated, urbanized atoll in the central Pacific. Analysis of inundation events suggests that a number of key drivers contribute to the spatial and temporal extent of island inundation, with unique degrees of predictability and resultant impact signatures apparent on island geomorphology and local anthropogenic activities. Results indicate three distinct drivers of inundation hazards exist. Firstly, tropical storms and typhoons elevate sea level through inverse barometric setup, wind setup and a range of wave driven processes and have caused considerable impact on atolls within the Marshall Islands. Secondly, super-elevated sea level conditions resulting from the combination of seasonal high tides and quasi-cyclical La Nina conditions drive inundation of low-lying lagoon facing coastal areas. Thirdly, long period swell conditions, typically generated by distant storms, can elevate reef-flat water levels through wave setup and infragravity wave oscillations. Such wave conditions can over wash the ocean-facing island ridge, often inundating large sections of the island. Reef-flat wave conditions are tidally modulated, with inundation events typically occurring around high tide. However, the two most recent destructive swell-driven inundation events have occurred while tide levels were significantly lower than spring tide levels, suggesting high water levels are not a necessary prerequisite for wave-driven inundation. The different modes of inundation are discussed and grounded within recent and historic inundation events, as well as results of a lengthy reef flat wave observation dataset from Kwajalein and Majuro Atolls in the Republic of the Marshall Islands. Future impacts of continued sea-level rise are considered on each mode of island inundation and the implications for local response discussed within the context of urbanised atoll islands.

Nest-site selection by cavity-nesting birds in relation to postfire salvage logging

Treesearch

Victoria A. Saab; Robin E. Russell; Jonathan G. Dudley

2009-01-01

Large wildfire events in coniferous forests of the western United States are often followed by postfire timber harvest. The long-term impacts of postfire timber harvest on fire-associated cavity-nesting bird species are not well documented. We studied nest-site selection by cavity-nesting birds over a 10-year period (1994-2003), representing 1-11 years after fire, on...

The Role of the Middle Atmosphere in Simulations of the Troposphere during Northern Hemisphere Winter: Differences between High- and Low-Top Models

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-01

Perlwitz and Harnik 2004). When SSW events are large, the impact in the lower atmosphere is most evident. An example is given in Fig. 1, which shows the...and troposphere. J. Atmos. Sci., 44, 1775–1800. Perlwitz, J., and N. Harnik , 2004: Downward coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere: The

Fire social science research from the Pacific Southwest research station: studies supported by national fire plan funds

Treesearch

Deborah J. Chavez; James D. Absher; Patricia L. Winter

2008-01-01

Fire events often have a large impact on recreation and tourism, yet these issues had not been addressed from a social science perspective. To address his, the Wildland Recreation and Urban Cultures Research Work Unit (RWU) of the Pacific Southwest Research Station acquired funding through the National Fire Plan within the community assistance topic area. The three...

Origin of Phobos and Deimos by the impact of a Vesta-to-Ceres sized body with Mars.

PubMed

Canup, Robin; Salmon, Julien

2018-04-01

It has been proposed that Mars' moons formed from a disk produced by a large impact with the planet. However, whether such an event could produce tiny Phobos and Deimos remains unclear. Using a hybrid N -body model of moon accumulation that includes a full treatment of moon-moon dynamical interactions, we first identify new constraints on the disk properties needed to produce Phobos and Deimos. We then simulate the impact formation of disks using smoothed particle hydrodynamics, including a novel approach that resolves the impact ejecta with order-of-magnitude finer mass resolution than existing methods. We find that forming Phobos-Deimos requires an oblique impact by a Vesta-to-Ceres sized object with ~10 -3 times Mars' mass, a much less massive impactor than previously considered.

RTSTEP regional transportation simulation tool for emergency planning - final report.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ley, H.; Sokolov, V.; Hope, M.

2012-01-20

Large-scale evacuations from major cities during no-notice events - such as chemical or radiological attacks, hazardous material spills, or earthquakes - have an obvious impact on large regions rather than on just the directly affected area. The scope of impact includes the accommodation of emergency evacuation traffic throughout a very large area; the planning of resources to respond appropriately to the needs of the affected population; the placement of medical supplies and decontamination equipment; and the assessment and determination of primary escape routes, as well as routes for incoming emergency responders. Compared to events with advance notice, such as evacuationsmore » based on hurricanes approaching an affected area, the response to no-notice events relies exclusively on pre-planning and general regional emergency preparedness. Another unique issue is the lack of a full and immediate understanding of the underlying threats to the population, making it even more essential to gain extensive knowledge of the available resources, the chain of command, and established procedures. Given the size of the area affected, an advanced understanding of the regional transportation systems is essential to help with the planning for such events. The objectives of the work described here (carried out by Argonne National Laboratory) is the development of a multi-modal regional transportation model that allows for the analysis of different evacuation scenarios and emergency response strategies to build a wealth of knowledge that can be used to develop appropriate regional emergency response plans. The focus of this work is on the effects of no-notice evacuations on the regional transportation network, as well as the response of the transportation network to the sudden and unusual demand. The effects are dynamic in nature, with scenarios changing potentially from minute to minute. The response to a radiological or chemical hazard will be based on the time-delayed dispersion of such materials over a large area, with responders trying to mitigate the immediate danger to the population in a variety of ways that may change over time (e.g., in-place evacuation, staged evacuations, and declarations of growing evacuation zones over time). In addition, available resources will be marshaled in unusual ways, such as the repurposing of transit vehicles to support mass evacuations. Thus, any simulation strategy will need to be able to address highly dynamic effects and will need to be able to handle any mode of ground transportation. Depending on the urgency and timeline of the event, emergency responders may also direct evacuees to leave largely on foot, keeping roadways as clear as possible for emergency responders, logistics, mass transport, and law enforcement. This RTSTEP project developed a regional emergency evacuation modeling tool for the Chicago Metropolitan Area that emergency responders can use to pre-plan evacuation strategies and compare different response strategies on the basis of a rather realistic model of the underlying complex transportation system. This approach is a significant improvement over existing response strategies that are largely based on experience gained from small-scale events, anecdotal evidence, and extrapolation to the scale of the assumed emergency. The new tool will thus add to the toolbox available to emergency response planners to help them design appropriate generalized procedures and strategies that lead to an improved outcome when used during an actual event.« less

Oblique impact: Projectile richochet, concomitant ejecta and momentum transfer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gault, Donald E.; Schultz, Peter H.

1987-01-01

Experimental studies of oblique impact indicate that projectile richochet occurs for trajectory angles less than 30 deg and that the richocheted projectile, accompanied by some target material, are ejected at velocities that are a large fraction of the impact velocity. Because the probability of occurrence of oblique impact less than 30 deg on a planetary body is about one out of every four impact events, oblique impacts would seem to be a potential mechanism to provide a source of meteorites from even the largest atmosphere-free planetary bodies. Because the amount of richocheted target material cannot be determined from previous results, additional experiments in the Ames Vertical Gun laboratory were undertaken toward that purpose using pendulums; one to measure momentum of the richocheted projectile and concomitant target ejecta, and a second to measure the momentum transferred from projectile to target. These experiments are briefly discussed.

Event-by-Event Anisotropic Flow in Heavy-ion Collisions from Combined Yang-Mills and Viscous Fluid Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gale, Charles; Jeon, Sangyong; Schenke, Björn; Tribedy, Prithwish; Venugopalan, Raju

2013-01-01

Anisotropic flow coefficients v1-v5 in heavy ion collisions are computed by combining a classical Yang-Mills description of the early time Glasma flow with the subsequent relativistic viscous hydrodynamic evolution of matter through the quark-gluon plasma and hadron gas phases. The Glasma dynamics, as realized in the impact parameter dependent Glasma (IP-Glasma) model, takes into account event-by-event geometric fluctuations in nucleon positions and intrinsic subnucleon scale color charge fluctuations; the preequilibrium flow of matter is then matched to the music algorithm describing viscous hydrodynamic flow and particle production at freeze-out. The IP-Glasma+MUSIC model describes well both transverse momentum dependent and integrated vn data measured at the Large Hadron Collider and the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider. The model also reproduces the event-by-event distributions of v2, v3 and v4 measured by the ATLAS Collaboration. The implications of our results for better understanding of the dynamics of the Glasma and for the extraction of transport properties of the quark-gluon plasma are outlined.

Know your limits? Climate extremes impact the range of Scots pine in unexpected places.

PubMed

Julio Camarero, J; Gazol, Antonio; Sancho-Benages, Santiago; Sangüesa-Barreda, Gabriel

2015-11-01

Although extreme climatic events such as drought are known to modify forest dynamics by triggering tree dieback, the impact of extreme cold events, especially at the low-latitude margin ('rear edge') of species distributional ranges, has received little attention. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of one such extreme cold event on a population of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) along the species' European southern rear-edge range limit and to determine how such events can be incorporated into species distribution models (SDMs). A combination of dendrochronology and field observation was used to quantify how an extreme cold event in 2001 in eastern Spain affected growth, needle loss and mortality of Scots pine. Long-term European climatic data sets were used to contextualize the severity of the 2001 event, and an SDM for Scots pine in Europe was used to predict climatic range limits. The 2001 winter reached record minimum temperatures (equivalent to the maximum European-wide diurnal ranges) and, for trees already stressed by a preceding dry summer and autumn, this caused dieback and large-scale mortality. Needle loss and mortality were particularly evident in south-facing sites, where post-event recovery was greatly reduced. The SDM predicted European Scots pine distribution mainly on the basis of responses to maximum and minimum monthly temperatures, but in comparison with this the observed effects of the 2001 cold event at the southerly edge of the range limit were unforeseen. The results suggest that in order to better forecast how anthropogenic climate change might affect future forest distributions, distribution modelling techniques such as SDMs must incorporate climatic extremes. For Scots pine, this study shows that the effects of cold extremes should be included across the entire distribution margin, including the southern 'rear edge', in order to avoid biased predictions based solely on warmer climatic scenarios. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

An anomalous African dust event and its impact on aerosol radiative forcing on the Southwest Atlantic coast of Europe in February 2016.

PubMed

Sorribas, M; Adame, J A; Andrews, E; Yela, M

2017-04-01

A desert dust (DD) event that had its origin in North Africa occurred on the 20th-23rd of February 2016. The dust transport phenomenon was exceptional because of its unusual intensity during the coldest season. A historical dataset (2006-2015) of February meteorological scenarios using ECMWF fields, meteorological parameters, aerosol optical properties, surface O 3 and AOD retrieved from MODIS at the El Arenosillo observatory (southwestern Spain) were analysed and compared with the levels during the DD event to highlight its exceptionality. Associated with a low-pressure system in western North Africa, flows transported air from the Sahel to Algeria and consequently increased temperatures from the surface to 700hPa by up to 7-9°C relative to the last decade. These conditions favoured the formation of a Saharan air layer. Dust was transported to the north and reached the Western Mediterranean Basin and the Iberian Peninsula. The arrival of the DD event at El Arenosillo did not affect the surface weather conditions or ozone but did impact the aerosol radiative forcing at the top of atmosphere (RF TOA ). Aerosol radiative properties did not change relative to historical; however, the particle size and the amount of the aerosol were significantly higher. The DD event caused an increase (in absolute terms) of the mean aerosol RF TOA to a value of -8.1Wm -2 (long-term climatological value ~-1.5Wm -2 ). The aerosol RF TOA was not very large relative other DD episodes; however, our analysis of the historical data concluded that the importance of this DD event lay in the month of occurrence. European phenological datasets related to extreme atmospheric events predominantly reflect changes that are probably associated with climate change. This work is an example of this phenomenon, showing an event that occurred in a hotspot, the Saharan desert, and its impact two thousand km away. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Thinking of biology: asteroid impacts, microbes, and the cooling of the atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oberbeck, V. R.; Mancinelli, R. L.

1994-01-01

The authors examine the cooling of the Earth's surface from 3.75 to 1 billion years ago. Three effects of the bombardment of Earth by asteroids and comets that may have delayed surface cooling include time to form continents, volatilization of carbonate rocks which released carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, and inability of microbes to inhabit land masses during large impact events. Continental microbes may have helped reduce high temperatures from 3.75 to 3.5 billion years ago. If so, the evolutionary sequence of microbes is proposed to be anaerobic heterotrophs, chemoautotrophs, and then photoautotrophs.

Zebrafish pancreas development.

PubMed

Tiso, Natascia; Moro, Enrico; Argenton, Francesco

2009-11-27

An accurate understanding of the molecular events governing pancreas development can have an impact on clinical medicine related to diabetes, obesity and pancreatic cancer, diseases with a high impact in public health. Until 1996, the main animal models in which pancreas formation and differentiation could be studied were mouse and, for some instances related to early development, chicken and Xenopus. Zebrafish has penetrated this field very rapidly offering a new model of investigation; by joining functional genomics, genetics and in vivo whole mount visualization, Danio rerio has allowed large scale and fine multidimensional analysis of gene functions during pancreas formation and differentiation.

Coastal circulation and water column properties off Kalaupapa National Historical Park, Molokai, Hawaii, 2008-2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Storlazzi, Curt D.; Presto, Katherine; Brown, Eric K.

2011-01-01

More than 2.2 million measurements of oceanographic forcing and the resulting water-column properties were made off U.S. National Park Service's Kalaupapa National Historical Park on the north shore of Molokai, Hawaii, between 2008 and 2010 to understand the role of oceanographic processes on the health and sustainability of the area's marine resources. The tides off the Kalaupapa Peninsula are mixed semidiurnal. The wave climate is dominated by two end-members: large northwest Pacific winter swell that directly impacts the study site, and smaller, shorter-period northeast trade-wind waves that have to refract around the peninsula, resulting in a more northerly direction before propagating over the study site. The currents primarily are alongshore and are faster at the surface than close to the seabed; large wave events, however, tend to drive flow in a more cross-shore orientation. The tidal currents flood to the north and ebb to the south. The waters off the peninsula appear to be a mix of cooler, more saline, deeper oceanic waters and shallow, warmer, lower-salinity nearshore waters, with intermittent injections of freshwater, generally during the winters. Overall, the turbidity levels were low, except during large wave events. The low overall turbidity levels and rapid return to pre-event background levels following the cessation of forcing suggest that there is little fine-grained material. Large wave events likely inhibit the settlement of fine-grained sediment at the site. A number of phenomena were observed that indicate the complexity of coastal circulation and water-column properties in the area and may help scientists and resource managers to better understand the implications of the processes on marine ecosystem health.

Buried Impact Basins and the Earliest History of Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frey, H. V.

2003-01-01

The "Quasi-Circular Depressions" (QCDs) seen in MOLA data which have little or no visible appearance in image data have been interpreted as buried impact basins on Mars. These have important implications for the age of the lowland crust, what mechanisms could produce the crustal dichotomy, and the existence of crust older than the oldest observed surface units on Mars. A global survey of large QCDs using high resolution MOLA data now available has provided further details of the earliest history of Mars. The lowlands are of Early Noachian age, slightly younger than the buried highlands and definitely older than the exposed highland surface. A depopulation of large visible basins at diameters 800 to 1300 km suggests some global scale event early in martian history, maybe related to the formation of the lowlands and/or the development of Tharsis. A suggested early disappearance of the global magnetic field can be placed within a temporal sequence of formation of the very largest impact basins.

Spousal Similarity in Life Satisfaction before and after Divorce

PubMed Central

Wortman, Jessica; Lucas, Richard E.

2015-01-01

Previous research has explored possible origins of individual differences in subjective well-being, focusing largely on stable, internal characteristics of traits as predictors of life satisfaction (Diener & Lucas, 1999). Although past work has demonstrated that life satisfaction is largely stable over the life span, other evidence has also demonstrated the lasting impact of life events. In this study, we use married couples as a test of the impact of life circumstances on life satisfaction, focusing on similarity in life satisfaction before and after divorce. If life satisfaction is impacted by shared life circumstances, married couples (who share life circumstances) should show greater similarity in life satisfaction before divorce than after. We tested this possibility using a dyadic latent-state-trait model that examined cross-spouse similarity in the stable and changing components of life satisfaction. Using a nationally representative panel study from Germany (Wagner, Frick & Schupp, 2007), we showed that similarity declined substantially following divorce. This suggests that life satisfaction is related to shared life circumstances. PMID:26436842

Spousal similarity in life satisfaction before and after divorce.

PubMed

Wortman, Jessica; Lucas, Richard E

2016-04-01

Previous research has explored possible origins of individual differences in subjective well-being, focusing largely on stable, internal characteristics of traits as predictors of life satisfaction (Diener & Lucas, 1999). Although past work has demonstrated that life satisfaction is largely stable over the life span, other evidence has also demonstrated the lasting impact of life events. In this study, we use married couples as a test of the impact of life circumstances on life satisfaction, focusing on similarity in life satisfaction before and after divorce. If life satisfaction is impacted by shared life circumstances, married couples (who share life circumstances) should show greater similarity in life satisfaction before divorce than after. We tested this possibility using a dyadic latent-state-trait model that examined cross-spouse similarity in the stable and changing components of life satisfaction. Using a nationally representative panel study from Germany (Wagner, Frick & Schupp, 2007), we showed that similarity declined substantially following divorce. This suggests that life satisfaction is related to shared life circumstances. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

A unified theory of impact crises and mass extinctions: quantitative tests.

PubMed

Rampino, M R; Haggerty, B M; Pagano, T C

1997-05-30

Several quantitative tests of a general hypothesis linking impacts of large asteroids and comets with mass extinctions of life are possible based on astronomical data, impact dynamics, and geological information. The waiting times of large-body impacts on the Earth derived from the flux of Earth-crossing asteroids and comets, and the estimated size of impacts capable of causing, large-scale environmental disasters, predict the impacts of objects > or = 5 km in diameter (> or = 10(7) Mt TNT equivalent) could be sufficient to explain the record of approximately 25 extinction pulses in the last 540 Myr, with the 5 recorded major mass extinctions related to impacts of the largest objects of > or = 10 km in diameter (> or = 10(8) Mt events). Smaller impacts (approximately 10(6) Mt), with significant regional environmental effects, could be responsible for the lesser boundaries in the geologic record. Tests of the "kill curve" relationship for impact-induced extinctions based on new data on extinction intensities, and several well-dated large impact craters, also suggest that major mass extinctions require large impacts, and that a step in the kill curve may exist at impacts that produce craters of approximately 100 km diameter, smaller impacts being capable of only relatively weak extinction pulses. Single impact craters less than approximately 60 km in diameter should not be associated with detectable global extinction pulses (although they may explain stage and zone boundaries marked by lesser faunal turnover), but multiple impacts in that size range may produce significant stepped extinction pulses. Statistical tests of the last occurrences of species at mass-extinction boundaries are generally consistent with predictions for abrupt or stepped extinctions, and several boundaries are known to show "catastrophic" signatures of environmental disasters and biomass crash, impoverished postextinction fauna and flora dominated by stress-tolerant and opportunistic species, and gradual ecological recovery and radiation of new taxa. Isotopic and other geochemical signatures are also generally consistent with the expected after-effects of catastrophic impacts. Seven of the recognized extinction pulses seem to be associated with concurrent (in some cases multiple) stratigraphic impact markers (e.g., layers with high iridium, shocked minerals, microtektites), and/or large, dated impact craters. Other less well-studied crisis intervals show elevated iridium, but well below that of the K/T spike, which might be explained by low-Ir impactors, ejecta blowoff, or sedimentary reworking and dilution of impact signatures. The best explanation for a possible periodic component of approximately 30 Myr in mass extinctions and clusters of impacts is the pulselike modulation of the comet flux associated with the solar system's periodic passage through the plane of the Milky Way Galaxy. The quantitative agreement between paleontologic and astronomical data suggests an important underlying unification of the processes involved.

Amateur Astronomers As Public Outreach Partners

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, M. A.

2006-08-01

Amateur astronomers involved in public outreach represent a huge, largely untapped source of energy and enthusiasm to help astronomers reach the general public. Even though many astronomy educators already work with amateur astronomers, the potential educational impact of amateur astronomers as public outreach ambassadors remains largely unrealized. Surveys and other work by the ASP in the US show that more than 20% of astronomy club members routinely participate in public engagement and educational events, such as public star parties, classroom visits, work with youth and community groups, etc. Amateur astronomers who participate in public outreach events are knowledgeable about astronomy and passionate about sharing their hobby with other people. They are very willing to work with astronomers and astronomy educators. They want useful materials, support, and training. In the USA, the ASP operates "The Night Sky Network," (funded by NASA). We have developed specialized materials and training, tested by and used by amateur astronomers. This project works with nearly 200 local astronomy clubs in 50 states to help them conduct more effective public outreach events. It has resulted in nearly 3,600 outreach events (reaching nearly 300,000 people) in just two years. In this presentation we examine key success factors, lessons learned, and suggest how astronomers outside the US can recruit and work with "outreach amateur astronomers" in their own countries.

Landslide/reservoir interaction: 3D numerical modelling of the Vajont rockslide and generated water wave

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crosta, G.; Imposimato, S.; Roddeman, D.; Frattini, P.

2012-04-01

Fast moving landslides can be originated along slopes in mountainous terrains with natural and artificial lakes, or fjords at the slope foot. This landslides can reach extremely high speed and the impact with the immobile reservoir water can be influenced by the local topography and the landslide mass profile. The impact can generate large impulse waves and landslide tsunami. Initiation, propagation and runup are the three phases that need to be considered. The landslide evolution and the consequent wave can be controlled by the initial mass position (subaerial, partially or completely submerged), the landslide speed, the type of material, the subaerial and subaqueous slope geometry, the landslide depth and length at the impact, and the water depth. Extreme events have been caused by subaerial landslides: the 1963 Vajont rockslide (Italy), the 1958 Lituya Bay event (Alaska), the Tafjord and the Loen multiple events event (Norway), also from volcanic collapses (Hawaii and Canary islands). Various researchers completed a systematic experimental work on 2D and 3D wave generation and propagation (Kamphuis and Bowering, 1970; Huber, 1980; Müller, 1995; Huber and Hager, 1997; Fritz, 2002; Zweifel, 2004; Panizzo et al., 2005; Heller, 2007; Heller and Kinnear, 2010; Sælevik et al., 2009), using both rigid blocks and deformable granular" masses. Model data and results have been used to calibrate and validate numerical modelling tools (Harbitz, 1992; Jiang and LeBlond, 1993; Grilli et al., 2002; Grilli and Watts, 2005; Lynett and Liu, 2005; Tinti et al., 2006; Abadie et al., 2010) generally considering simplified rheologies (e.g. viscous rheologies) for subaerial subaqueous spreading. We use a FEM code (Roddeman, 2011; Crosta et al., 2006, 2009, 2010, 2011) adopting an Eulerian-Lagrangian approach to give accurate results for large deformations. We model both 2D and fully 3D events considering different settings. The material is considered as a fully deformable elasto-plastic continuum and water as nearly incompressible. In particular we modeled the Vajont rockslide both in 2D and 3D considering the landslide water interaction. More simulations have been performed to validate the model against 2D and 3D tank experiments considering different slope geometries and water depth.

Flooding from Intense Rainfall: an overview of project SINATRA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cloke, Hannah

2014-05-01

Project SINATRA (Susceptibility of catchments to INTense RAinfall and flooding) is part of the UK NERC's Flooding From Intense Rainfall (FFIR) research programme which aims to reduce the risks of damage and loss of life caused by surface water and flash floods through improved identification, characterisation and prediction of interacting meteorological, hydrological and hydro-morphological processes that contribute to flooding associated with high-intensity rainfall events. Extreme rainfall events may only last for a few hours at most, but can generate terrifying and destructive floods. Their impact can be affected by a wide range factors (or processes) such as the location and intensity of the rainfall, the shape and steepness of the catchment it falls on, how much sediment is moved by the water and the vulnerability of the communities in the flood's path. Furthermore, FFIR are by their nature rapid, making it very difficult for researchers to 'capture' measurements during events. The complexity, speed and lack of field measurements on FFIR make it difficult to create computer models to predict flooding and often we are uncertain as to their accuracy. In addition there is no consensus on how to identify how particular catchments may be vulnerable to FFIR, due to factors such as catchment area, shape, geology and soil type as well as land-use. Additionally, the catchments most susceptible to FFIR are often small and un-gauged. Project SINATRA will: (1) Increase our understanding of what factors cause FFIR and gathering new, high resolution measurements of FFIR by: assembling an archive of past FFIR events in Britain and their impacts, as a prerequisite for improving our ability to predict future occurrences of FFIR; making real time observations of flooding during flood events as well as post-event surveys and historical event reconstruction, using fieldwork and crowd-sourcing methods; and characterizing the physical drivers for UK summer flooding events by identifying the large-scale atmospheric conditions associated with FFIR events, and linking them to catchment type. (2) Use this new understanding and data to improve models of FFIR so we can predict where they may happen nationwide by: employing an integrated catchment/urban scale modelling approach to FFIR at high spatial and temporal scales, modelling rapid catchment response to flash floods and their impacts in urban areas; scaling up to larger catchments by improving the representation of fast riverine and surface water flooding and hydromorphic change (including debris flow) in regional scale models of FFIR; improving the representation of FFIR in the JULES land surface model by integrating river routing and fast runoff processes, and performing assimilation of soil moisture and river discharge into the model run (3) Use these new findings and predictions to provide the Environment Agency and other professionals with information and software they can use to manage FFIR, reducing their damage and impact to communities by: developing tools to enable prediction of future FFIR impacts to support the Flood Forecasting Centre in issuing new 'impacts-based' warnings about their occurrence; developing a FFIR analysis tool to assess risks associated with rare events in complex situations involving incomplete knowledge, analogous to those developed for safety assessment in radioactive waste management.

The relevance of flood hazards and impacts in Turkey: What can be learned from different disaster loss databases?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koc, Gamze; Thieken, Annegret H.

2016-04-01

Despite technological development, better data and considerable efforts to reduce the impacts of natural hazards over the last two decades, natural disasters inflicted losses have caused enormous human and economic damages in Turkey. In particular earthquakes and flooding have caused enormous human and economic losses that occasionally amounted to 3 to 4% of the gross national product of Turkey (Genç, 2007). While there is a large body of literature on earthquake hazards and risks in Turkey, comparatively little is known about flood hazards and risks. Therefore, this study is aimed at investigating flood patterns, intensities and impacts, also providing an overview of the temporal and spatial distribution of flood losses by analysing different databases on disaster losses throughout Turkey. As input for more detailed event analyses, an additional aim is to retrieve the most severe flood events in the period between 1960 and 2014 from the databases. In general, data on disaster impacts are scarce in comparison to other scientific fields in natural hazard research, although the lack of reliable, consistent and comparable data is seen as a major obstacle for effective and long-term loss prevention. Currently, only a few data sets, especially the emergency events database EM-DAT (www.emdat.be) hosted and maintained by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) since 1988, are publicly accessible and have become widely used to describe trends in disaster losses. However, loss data are subjected to various biases (Gall et al. 2009). Since Turkey is in the favourable position of having a distinct national disaster database since 2009, i.e. the Turkey Disaster Data Base (TABB), there is the unique opportunity to investigate flood impacts in Turkey in more detail as well as to identify biases and underlying reasons for mismatches with EM-DAT. To compare these two databases, the events of the two databases were reclassified by using the IRDR peril classification system (IRDR, 2014). Furthermore, literature, news archives and the Global Active Archive of Large Flood Events - Dartmouth Flood Observatory (floodobservatory.colorado.edu) were used to complement loss data gaps of the databases. From 1960 to 2014, EM-DAT reported 35 flood events in Turkey (26.3 % of all natural hazards events), which caused 773 fatalities (the second most destructive type of natural hazard after earthquakes) and a total economic damage of US 2.2 billion. In contrast, TABB contained 1076 flood events (8.3 % of all natural hazards events), by which 795 people died. On this basis, floods are the third most destructive type of natural hazard -after earthquakes and extreme temperatures- for human losses in Turkey. A comparison of the two databases EM-DAT and TABB reveals big mismatches of the flood data, e.g. the reported number of events, number of affected people and economic loss, differ dramatically. It is concluded that the main reason for the big differences and contradicting numbers of different natural disaster databases is lack of standardization for data collection, peril classification and database thresholds (entry criteria). Since loss data collection is gaining more and more attention, e.g. in the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 (SFDRR), the study could offer substantial insights for flood risk mitigation and adaptation studies in Turkey. References Gall, M., Borden, K., Cutter, S.L. (2009) When do losses count? Six fallacies of loss data from natural hazards. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 90(6), 799-809. Genç, F.S., (2007) Türkiye'de Kentleşme ve Doǧal Afet Riskleri ile İlişkisi, TMMOB Afet Sempozyumu. IRDR (2014) IRDR Peril Classification and Hazard Glossary. Report of the Data Group in the Integrated Research on Disaster Risk. (Available at: http://www.irdrinternational.org/2014/03/28/irdr-peril-classification-and-hazard-glossary).

The Chicxulub event - sulfur-bearing minerals and lithologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strauss, H.; Deutsch, A.

2003-04-01

Evaporates form a major target lithology at the Chicxulub impact site. One of the postulated effects of the impact event at the Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary is the impact-induced dissociation of anhydrite to form sulfur-oxides and a solid residue; large isotope fractionation effects in sulfur should accompany this process. We have analyzed the sulfur isotope composition of (i) annealed anhydrite clasts in impact melt breccias of PEMEX core Yucatan-6 N 19, (ii) unshocked anhydrite from the CSDP well Yaxcopoil-1, which belong to the megabreccia below the suevite layer (YAX-1 1369, and 1376 m depth), and (iii) sulfide grains of hydrothermal origin in a finest-grained breccia, which transects a large limestone block of this megabreccia at a depth of 1369 m. Samples of groups (i) and (ii) yielded δ34S values between 18.0 and 19.8 ppm CDT (unweighted mean is 18.3 ppm, n=7), with one slightly lower value of 15.3 ppm for an anhydrite clast in Y-6 N19/Part 6. These data are in agreement with the δ34S value for the Late Cretaceous seawater (Strauss 1999). The δ34S obviously remained unchanged despite the fact that textural features indicate a severe annealing of the clasts in the impact melt. Sulfides of group (iii) show δ34S values around 41 ppm CDT (n=7), which are quite unusual values if these minerals are of non-biogenic origin. In contrast, δ34S for the yellow glass from the K/T boundary at Haiti range from 1.5 to 13.2 ppm (Chaussidon et al. 1996). Using this preliminary evidence, we conclude that only distant ejecta lithologies, and probably secondary material inside the crater, may display impact-related fractionation of sulfur isotopes. This observation is consistent with petrologic data, modeling results as well as of shock recovery and annealing experiments: anhydrite obviously is quite resistant to shock-related dissociation.

Where's the Beaverhead beef?. [meteorite impact structure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hargraves, R. B.

1992-01-01

Only rare quartz grains with single-set planar (1013) deformation features (PDF's) are present in breccia dikes found in association with uniformly oriented shatter cones that occur over an area 8 x 25 km. This suggests that the Beaverhead shocked rocks come from only the outer part of the central uplift of what must have been a large (greater than 100 km diameter) complex impact structure. An impact event of this magnitude on continental crust (thought to have occurred in late Precambrian or ealy Paleozoic time) could be expected to punctuate local geologic history. Furthermore, although it may now be covered, its scar should remain despite all the considerable subsequent erosion/deposition and tectonism since the impact. The following are three large-scale singularities or anomalies that may reflect the event and mark its source. (1) The Lemhi Arch is a major structural uplift that occurred in late Proterozoic-early Paleozoic time in East Central Idaho and caused the erosion of at least 4 km of sedimentary cover. This may be directly related to the impact. (2) Of the many thrust sheets comprising the Cordilleran belt, the Cabin plate that carries the shocked rocks is unique in that it alone intersected the crystalline basement. It also now marks the apex of the Southwest Montana Recess in the Sevier front. The basement uplift remaining from the impact may have constituted a mechanical obstacle to the advancing thrust sheets in Cretaceous time, causing the recess. (3) What could be interpreted as a roughly circular aeromagnetic anomaly approx. 70 km in diameter can be discerned in the state aeromagnetic map centered about 20 km southeast of Challis, Idaho, in the Lost River range. It is in approximately the right place, and ignoring the possibility that the anomalies have diverse causes and the circular pattern is coincidental, it may mark what remains of the buried central uplift structure.

Sub-seasonal Predictability of Heavy Precipitation Events: Implication for Real-time Flood Management in Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Najafi, H.; Shahbazi, A.; Zohrabi, N.; Robertson, A. W.; Mofidi, A.; Massah Bavani, A. R.

2016-12-01

Each year, a number of high impact weather events occur worldwide. Since any level of predictability at sub-seasonal to seasonal timescale is highly beneficial to society, international efforts is now on progress to promote reliable Ensemble Prediction Systems for monthly forecasts within the WWRP/WCRP initiative (S2S) project and North American Multi Model Ensemble (NMME). For water resources managers in the face of extreme events, not only can reliable forecasts of high impact weather events prevent catastrophic losses caused by floods but also contribute to benefits gained from hydropower generation and water markets. The aim of this paper is to analyze the predictability of recent severe weather events over Iran. Two recent heavy precipitations are considered as an illustration to examine whether S2S forecasts can be used for developing flood alert systems especially where large cascade of dams are in operation. Both events have caused major damages to cities and infrastructures. The first severe precipitation was is in the early November 2015 when heavy precipitation (more than 50 mm) occurred in 2 days. More recently, up to 300 mm of precipitation is observed within less than a week in April 2016 causing a consequent flash flood. Over some stations, the observed precipitation was even more than the total annual mean precipitation. To analyze the predictive capability, ensemble forecasts from several operational centers including (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) system, Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) and Chinese Meteorological Center (CMA) are evaluated. It has been observed that significant changes in precipitation anomalies were likely to be predicted days in advance. The next step will be to conduct thorough analysis based on comparing multi-model outputs over the full hindcast dataset developing real-time high impact weather prediction systems.

Recent Extreme Marine Events at Southern Coast of Black Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ozyurt Tarakcioglu, Gulizar; Cevdet Yalciner, Ahmet; Kirezci, Cagil; Baykal, Cuneyt; Gokhan Guler, Hasan; Erol, Onur; Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey

2015-04-01

The utilization at the coastal areas of Black Sea basin has increased in the recent years with the projects such as large commercial ports, international transportation hubs, gas and petrol pipelines, touristic and recreational infrastructures both along surrounding shoreline. Although Black Sea is a closed basin, extreme storms and storm surges have also been observed with an increasing frequency in the recent years. Among those events, February 1999, March 2013 and September 2014 storms impacted Southern coast of Black sea have clearly shown that the increasing economic value at the coastal areas caused the increasing cost of damages and loss of property by natural hazards. The storm occurred on February 19-20, 1999 is one of the most destructive storm in the last decades. The 1999 event (1999 Southern Black sea storm) caused destruction at all harbors and coastal protection structures along the Black Sea coast of Turkey. The complete damage of the breakwater of Giresun Harbor and damage on the harbor structures and cargo handling equipment were the major impacts of the 1999 Southern Black sea storm. Similar coastal impact have also been observed during the September 24, 2014 storm at 500m East of Giresun harbor. Although there are considerable number of destructive storms observed at southern coast of Black sea recently, data on these events are limited and vastly scattered. In this study the list of recent extreme marine events at South coast of the Black sea compiled and related data such as wind speed, wave height, period, and type of damages are cataloged. Particular attention is focused on the 1999 and 2014 storm events. The meteorological and morphological characteristics which may be considered as the reasons of the generation and coastal amplification of these storms are discussed. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: This study is partly supported by Turkish Russian Joint Research Grant Program by TUBITAK (Turkey) and RFBR (Russia), and TUBITAK 213M534 Research Project.

Spatial impact and triggering conditions of the exceptional hydro-geomorphological event of December 1909 in Iberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pereira, S.; Ramos, A. M.; Zêzere, J. L.; Trigo, R. M.; Vaquero, J. M.

2015-09-01

According to the DISASTER database the 20-28 December 1909 was the hydro-geomorphologic event with the highest number of flood and landslide cases occurred in Portugal in the period 1865-2010 (Zêzere et al., 2014). This event also caused important social impacts over the Spanish territory, especially in the Douro basin, having triggered the highest floods in more than 100 years at the river's mouth in the city of Oporto. This work aims to characterize the spatial distribution and social impacts of the December 1909 hydro-geomorphologic event over Iberia. In addition, the meteorological conditions that triggered the event are analysed using the 20 Century Reanalysis dataset from NOAA and precipitation data from Iberian meteorological stations. The Iberian Peninsula was spatially affected during this event along the SW-NE direction spanning from Lisbon, Santarém, Oporto and Guarda (in Portugal), until Salamanca, Valladolid, Zamora, Orense, León and Palencia (in Spain). In Iberia, 134 DISASTER cases were recorded (130 flood cases; 4 landslides cases) having caused a total of 89 casualties (57 in floods and 32 in landslides) and a total of 3876 people were affected, including fatalities, injured, missing, evacuated and homeless people. This event was associated with some outstanding precipitation values at Guarda station (Portugal) in 22 December 1909 and unusual meteorological conditions characterized by the presence of a deep low pressure system located over NW Iberian Peninsula with a stationary frontal system striking the Western Iberian Peninsula. The presence of an upper-level jet (250 hPa) and low-level jet (900 hPa) located on SW-NE oriented towards the Iberia along with upper-level divergence and lower-level convergence favoured large-scale precipitation. Finally, associated with these features it is possible to state that this extreme event was clearly associated to the presence of an elongated Atmospheric River, crossing the entire northern Atlantic basin and providing a continuous supply of moisture that contributed to enhance precipitation. This work contributes to a comprehensive and systematic synoptic evaluation of the second most deadly hydro-geomorphologic Disaster event occurred in Portugal since 1865 and will help to better understand the meteorological system that was responsible for triggering the event.

Impacts and tectonism in Earth and moon history of the past 3800 million years

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stothers, Richard B.

1992-01-01

The moon's surface, unlike the Earth's, displays a comparatively clear record of its past bombardment history for the last 3800 Myr, the time since active lunar tectonism under the massive premare bombardment ended. From Baldwin's (1987) tabulation of estimated ages for a representative sample of large lunar craters younger than 3800 Ma, six major cratering episodes can be discerned. These six bombardment episodes, which must have affected the Earth too, appear to match in time the six major episodes of orogenic tectonism on Earth, despite typical resolution errors of +/- 100 Myr and the great uncertainties of the two chronologies. Since more highly resolved events during the Cenozoic and Mesozoic Eras suggest the same correlation, it is possible that large impacts have influenced plate tectonics and other aspects of geologic history, perhaps by triggering flood basalt eruptions.

What shapes stellar metallicity gradients of massive galaxies at large radii?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirschmann, Michaela

2017-03-01

We investigate the differential impact of physical mechanisms, mergers and internal energetic phenomena, on the evolution of stellar metallicity gradients in massive, present-day galaxies employing sets of high-resolution, cosmological zoom simulations. We demonstrate that negative metallicity gradients at large radii (>2Reff) originate from the accretion of metal-poor stellar systems. At larger radii, galaxies become typically more dominated by stars accreted from satellite galaxies in major and minor mergers. However, only strong galactic, stellar-driven winds can sufficiently reduce the metallicity content of the accreted stars to realistically steepen the outer metallicity gradients in agreement with observations. In contrast, the gradients of the models without winds are inconsistent with observations. Moreover, we discuss the impact of additional AGN feedback. This analysis greatly highlights the importance of both energetic processes and merger events for stellar population properties of massive galaxies at large radii. Our results are expected to significantly contribute to the interpretation of current and up-coming IFU surveys (e.g. MaNGA, CALIFA).

Warning and prevention based on estimates with large uncertainties: the case of low-frequency and large-impact events like tsunamis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tinti, Stefano; Armigliato, Alberto; Pagnoni, Gianluca; Zaniboni, Filippo

2013-04-01

Geoscientists deal often with hazardous processes like earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, tsunamis, hurricanes, etc., and their research is aimed not only to a better understanding of the physical processes, but also to provide assessment of the space and temporal evolution of a given individual event (i.e. to provide short-term prediction) and of the expected evolution of a group of events (i.e. to provide statistical estimates referred to a given return period, and a given geographical area). One of the main issues of any scientific method is how to cope with measurement errors, a topic which in case of forecast of ongoing or of future events translates into how to deal with forecast uncertainties. In general, the more data are available and processed to make a prediction, the more accurate the prediction is expected to be if the scientific approach is sound, and the smaller the associated uncertainties are. However, there are several important cases where assessment is to be made with insufficient data or insufficient time for processing, which leads to large uncertainties. Two examples can be given taken from tsunami science, since tsunamis are rare events that may have destructive power and very large impact. One example is the case of warning for a tsunami generated by a near-coast earthquake, which is an issue at the focus of the European funded project NearToWarn. Warning has to be launched before tsunami hits the coast, that is in a few minutes after its generation. This may imply that data collected in such a short time are not yet enough for an accurate evaluation, also because the implemented monitoring system (if any) could be inadequate (f.i. one reason of inadequacy could be that implementing a dense instrumental network could be judged too expensive for rare events) The second case is the long term prevention from tsunami strikes. Tsunami infrequency may imply that the historical record for a given piece of coast is too short to capture a statistical sufficient number of large tsunamis, which entails that tsunami hazard has to be estimated by means of speculated worst-case scenarios, and their consequences are evaluated accordingly and usually result associated with large uncertainty bands. In case of large uncertainties, the main issues for geoscientists are how to communicate the information (prediction and uncertainties) to stakeholders and citizens and how to build and implement together responsive procedures that should be adequate. Usually there is a tradeoff between the cost of the countermeasure (warning and prevention) and its efficacy (i.e. its capability of minimizing the damage). The level of the acceptable tradeoff is an issue pertaining to decision makers and to local threatened communities. This paper, that represents a contribution from the European project TRIDEC on management of emergency crises, discusses the role of geoscientists in providing predictions and the related uncertainties. It is stressed that through academic education geoscientists are formed more to better their understanding of processes and the quantification of uncertainties, but are often unprepared to communicate their results in a way appropriate for society. Filling this gap is crucial for improving the way geoscience and society handle natural hazards and devise proper defense means.

Were all extinction events caused by impacts?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sheehan, P. M.; Coorough, P. J.

1994-01-01

Extraterrestrial impacts are firmly implicated in several of the five major Phanerozoic extinction events. A critical issue now is whether extraterrestrial events have been the only mechanism that produced physical changes of sufficient magnitude to cause major extinction events. While we believe the evidence is overwhelming that the KT extinction event was caused by an impact, we also find that an event of similar or larger size near the end of the Ordovician is best explained by terrestrial causes. The Ordovician extinction event (End-O extinction event) occurred near the end of the Ordovician, but the interval of extinction was completed prior to the newly established Ordovician-Silurian boundary. In spite of extensive field studies, a convincing signature of an associated impact has not been found. However, a prominent glaciation does coincide with the End-O extinction event.

Were all extinction events caused by impacts?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheehan, P. M.; Coorough, P. J.

Extraterrestrial impacts are firmly implicated in several of the five major Phanerozoic extinction events. A critical issue now is whether extraterrestrial events have been the only mechanism that produced physical changes of sufficient magnitude to cause major extinction events. While we believe the evidence is overwhelming that the KT extinction event was caused by an impact, we also find that an event of similar or larger size near the end of the Ordovician is best explained by terrestrial causes. The Ordovician extinction event (End-O extinction event) occurred near the end of the Ordovician, but the interval of extinction was completed prior to the newly established Ordovician-Silurian boundary. In spite of extensive field studies, a convincing signature of an associated impact has not been found. However, a prominent glaciation does coincide with the End-O extinction event.

Compound flooding: examples, methods, and challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahl, T.

2017-12-01

When different climatic extremes occur simultaneously or in close succession, the impacts to the environment, built infrastructure and society at large are often significantly escalated. These events are collectively referred to as "compound" events. Although they are typically regarded as highly "surprising" when they occur, the dependencies and multi-scale nature of many climate phenomena mean that such events occur much more likely than might be expected by random chance alone. However, despite their high impacts, compound extremes are not, or only poorly covered in current risk analysis frameworks and policy agendas. Floods in particular, which are among the most dangerous and costly natural hazards, are rarely a function of just one driver. Rather, they often arise through the joint occurrence of different source mechanisms. This can include oceanographic drivers such as tides, storm surges, or waves, as well as hydrologic drivers such as rainfall runoff (pluvial) or river discharge (fluvial). Often, two or more of these flood drivers affect the same region and are correlated with each other, which needs to be accounted for in flood risk assessments. This presentation will briefly introduce the different types of compound flooding along with recent examples from around the globe where those high impact events led to substantial damages and loss of lives. A broad overview will be provided of existing statistical modelling tools to identify and simulate dependencies between flood drivers, for example when calculating joint probabilities. Finally, some of the most pressing challenges in developing improved strategies to assess and mitigate the risks of climatic compound extremes, and compound flooding in particular, will be discussed.

Impact bias or underestimation? Outcome specifications predict the direction of affective forecasting errors.

PubMed

Buechel, Eva C; Zhang, Jiao; Morewedge, Carey K

2017-05-01

Affective forecasts are used to anticipate the hedonic impact of future events and decide which events to pursue or avoid. We propose that because affective forecasters are more sensitive to outcome specifications of events than experiencers, the outcome specification values of an event, such as its duration, magnitude, probability, and psychological distance, can be used to predict the direction of affective forecasting errors: whether affective forecasters will overestimate or underestimate its hedonic impact. When specifications are positively correlated with the hedonic impact of an event, forecasters will overestimate the extent to which high specification values will intensify and low specification values will discount its impact. When outcome specifications are negatively correlated with its hedonic impact, forecasters will overestimate the extent to which low specification values will intensify and high specification values will discount its impact. These affective forecasting errors compound additively when multiple specifications are aligned in their impact: In Experiment 1, affective forecasters underestimated the hedonic impact of winning a smaller prize that they expected to win, and they overestimated the hedonic impact of winning a larger prize that they did not expect to win. In Experiment 2, affective forecasters underestimated the hedonic impact of a short unpleasant video about a temporally distant event, and they overestimated the hedonic impact of a long unpleasant video about a temporally near event. Experiments 3A and 3B showed that differences in the affect-richness of forecasted and experienced events underlie these differences in sensitivity to outcome specifications, therefore accounting for both the impact bias and its reversal. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Evaluation and comparison of different RCMs simulations of the Mediterranean climate: a view on the impact of model resolution and Mediterranean sea coupling.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panthou, Gérémy; Vrac, Mathieu; Drobinski, Philippe; Bastin, Sophie; Somot, Samuel; Li, Laurent

2015-04-01

As regularly stated by numerous authors, the Mediterranean climate is considered as one major climate 'hot spot'. At least, three reasons may explain this statement. First, this region is known for being regularly affected by extreme hydro-meteorological events (heavy precipitation and flash-floods during the autumn season; droughts and heat waves during spring and summer). Second, the vulnerability of populations in regard of these extreme events is expected to increase during the XXIst century (at least due to the projected population growth in this region). At last, Global Circulation Models project that this regional climate will be highly sensitive to climate change. Moreover, global warming is expected to intensify the hydrological cycle and thus to increase the frequency of extreme hydro-meteorological events. In order to propose adaptation strategies, the robust estimation of the future evolution of the Mediterranean climate and the associated extreme hydro-meteorological events (in terms of intensity/frequency) is of great relevance. However, these projections are characterized by large uncertainties. Many components of the simulation chain can explain these large uncertainties : (i) uncertainties concerning the emission scenario; (ii) climate model simulations suffer of parametrization errors and uncertainties concerning the initial state of the climate; and (iii) the additional uncertainties given by the (dynamical or statistical) downscaling techniques and the impact model. Narrowing (as fine as possible) these uncertainties is a major challenge of the actual climate research. One way for that is to reduce the uncertainties associated with each component. In this study, we are interested in evaluating the potential improvement of : (i) coupled RCM simulations (with the Mediterranean Sea) in comparison with atmosphere only (stand-alone) RCM simulations and (ii) RCM simulations at a finer resolution in comparison with larger resolution. For that, three different RCMs (WRF, ALADIN, LMDZ4) were run, forced by ERA-Interim reanalyses, within the MED-CORDEX experiment. For each RCM, different versions (coupled/stand-alone, high/low resolution) were realized. A large set of scores was developed and applied in order to evaluate the performances of these different RCMs simulations. These scores were applied for three variables (daily precipitation amount, mean daily air temperature and the dry spell lengths). A particular attention was given to the RCM capability to reproduce the seasonal and spatial pattern of extreme statistics. Results show that the differences between coupled and stand-alone RCMs are localized very near the Mediterranean sea and that the model resolution has a slight impact on the scores obtained. Globally, the main differences between the RCM simulations come from the RCM used. Keywords: Mediterranean climate, extreme hydro-meteorological events, RCM simulations, evaluation of climate simulations

Biogeochemical significance of pelagic ecosystem function: an end-Cretaceous case study

PubMed Central

Penman, Donald E.; Rae, James W. B.

2016-01-01

Pelagic ecosystem function is integral to global biogeochemical cycling, and plays a major role in modulating atmospheric CO2 concentrations (pCO2). Uncertainty as to the effects of human activities on marine ecosystem function hinders projection of future atmospheric pCO2. To this end, events in the geological past can provide informative case studies in the response of ecosystem function to environmental and ecological changes. Around the Cretaceous–Palaeogene (K–Pg) boundary, two such events occurred: Deccan large igneous province (LIP) eruptions and massive bolide impact at the Yucatan Peninsula. Both perturbed the environment, but only the impact coincided with marine mass extinction. As such, we use these events to directly contrast the response of marine biogeochemical cycling to environmental perturbation with and without changes in global species richness. We measure this biogeochemical response using records of deep-sea carbonate preservation. We find that Late Cretaceous Deccan volcanism prompted transient deep-sea carbonate dissolution of a larger magnitude and timescale than predicted by geochemical models. Even so, the effect of volcanism on carbonate preservation was slight compared with bolide impact. Empirical records and geochemical models support a pronounced increase in carbonate saturation state for more than 500 000 years following the mass extinction of pelagic carbonate producers at the K–Pg boundary. These examples highlight the importance of pelagic ecosystems in moderating climate and ocean chemistry. PMID:27114586

IPY Education, Outreach and Communication - Some Lessons Learned (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlson, D. J.; Salmon, R.; Munro, N.

2009-12-01

IPY Education, Outreach and Communications planning and implementation occurred with a minimum of staff and resources and a maximum of international volunteer enthusiasm and energy. Although many relatively well-funded and remarkable national activities occurred, sharing and promoting these internationally depended entirely on the volunteer networks of individuals and institutions. Through these partnerships we have learned valuable lessons about impact and distribution, and challenged several assumptions about educational partnerships. For example, we learned the importance of regular pre-scheduled events, and how to use networks of volunteer translators and free geobrowser tools. We have learned how best to conduct planning meetings and live events across time zones and hemispheres, and shown how the best concepts and ideas of science education can propagate across age groups and among languages. We have learned the optimal times of year for international events, and the most effective means for international distribution and communication. We have established a rapid-response help desk without home or staff, and sustained active and high-impact interactions with journalists largely without press releases. We have shown that, in general, wide-spread distribution of freely accessible materials produces a better impact than embargoes and restrictions. Most fundamentally, we have exposed a pervasive interest in polar science and a hunger for climate information, and responded with an active, flexible, and efficient network of partners and products.

The impact of bathymetry input on flood simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khanam, M.; Cohen, S.

2017-12-01

Flood prediction and mitigation systems are inevitable for improving public safety and community resilience all over the worldwide. Hydraulic simulations of flood events are becoming an increasingly efficient tool for studying and predicting flood events and susceptibility. A consistent limitation of hydraulic simulations of riverine dynamics is the lack of information about river bathymetry as most terrain data record water surface elevation. The impact of this limitation on the accuracy on hydraulic simulations of flood has not been well studies over a large range of flood magnitude and modeling frameworks. Advancing our understanding of this topic is timely given emerging national and global efforts for developing automated flood predictions systems (e.g. NOAA National Water Center). Here we study the response of flood simulation to the incorporation of different bathymetry and floodplain surveillance source. Different hydraulic models are compared, Mike-Flood, a 2D hydrodynamic model, and GSSHA, a hydrology/hydraulics model. We test a hypothesis that the impact of inclusion/exclusion of bathymetry data on hydraulic model results will vary in its magnitude as a function of river size. This will allow researcher and stake holders more accurate predictions of flood events providing useful information that will help local communities in a vulnerable flood zone to mitigate flood hazards. Also, it will help to evaluate the accuracy and efficiency of different modeling frameworks and gage their dependency on detailed bathymetry input data.

Lithium in tektites and impact glasses: Implications for sources, histories and large impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Magna, T.; Deutsch, A.; Mezger, K.; Skála, R.; Seitz, H.-M.; Mizera, J.; Řanda, Z.; Adolph, L.

2011-04-01

Lithium (Li) abundances and isotope compositions were determined in a representative suite of tektites (moldavites, Muong Nong-type tektites and an australite, Ivory Coast tektites and bediasites), impact-related glasses (Libyan Desert Glass, zhamanshinites and irghizites), a glass fragment embedded in the suevite from the Ries impact crater and sedimentary materials in order to test a possible susceptibility of Li to fractionation during hypervelocity impact events and to de-convolve links to their potential parental sources. The overall data show a large spread in Li abundance (4.7-58 ppm Li) and δ 7Li values (-3.2‰ to 26.0‰) but individual groups of tektites and impact glasses have distinctive Li compositions. Most importantly, any significant high-temperature Li isotope fractionation can be excluded by comparing sedimentary lithologies from central Europe with moldavites. Instead, we suggest that Li isotope compositions in tektites and impact-related glasses are probably diagnostic of the precursor materials and their pre-impact geological histories. The Muong Nong-type tektites and australite specimen are identical in terms of Li concentrations and δ 7Li and we tentatively endorse their common origin in a single impact event. Evidence for low-temperature Rayleigh fractionation, which must have operated prior to impact-induced melting and solidification, is provided for a subset of Muong Nong-type tektites. Although Li isotope variations in most tektites are broadly similar to those of the upper continental crust, Libyan Desert Glass carries high δ 7Li ⩾24.7‰, which appears to mirror the previous fluvial history of parental material that was perhaps deposited in lacustrine environment or coastal seawater. Lithium isotopes in impact-related glasses from the Zhamanshin crater define a group distinct from all other samples and point to melting of chemically less evolved mafic lithologies, which is also consistent with their major and trace element patterns. Extreme shock pressures and the related extreme post-shock temperatures alone appear not to have any effect on the Li isotope systematics; therefore, useful information on parental lithologies and magmatic processes may be retrieved from analyses of Martian and lunar meteorites. Moreover, lack of significant Li depletion in tektites provides further constraints on the loss of moderately volatile elements during the Moon-forming impact.

On the use of wave parameterizations and a storm impact scaling model in National Weather Service Coastal Flood and decision support operations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mignone, Anthony; Stockdon, H.; Willis, M.; Cannon, J.W.; Thompson, R.

2012-01-01

National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Offices (WFO) are responsible for issuing coastal flood watches, warnings, advisories, and local statements to alert decision makers and the general public when rising water levels may lead to coastal impacts such as inundation, erosion, and wave battery. Both extratropical and tropical cyclones can generate the prerequisite rise in water level to set the stage for a coastal impact event. Forecasters use a variety of tools including computer model guidance and local studies to help predict the potential severity of coastal flooding. However, a key missing component has been the incorporation of the effects of waves in the prediction of total water level and the associated coastal impacts. Several recent studies have demonstrated the importance of incorporating wave action into the NWS coastal flood program. To follow up on these studies, this paper looks at the potential of applying recently developed empirical parameterizations of wave setup, swash, and runup to the NWS forecast process. Additionally, the wave parameterizations are incorporated into a storm impact scaling model that compares extreme water levels to beach elevation data to determine the mode of coastal change at predetermined “hotspots” of interest. Specifically, the storm impact model compares the approximate storm-induced still water level, which includes contributions from tides, storm surge, and wave setup, to dune crest elevation to determine inundation potential. The model also compares the combined effects of tides, storm surge, and the 2 % exceedance level for vertical wave runup (including both wave setup and swash) to dune toe and crest elevations to determine if erosion and/or ocean overwash may occur. The wave parameterizations and storm impact model are applied to two cases in 2009 that led to significant coastal impacts and unique forecast challenges in North Carolina: the extratropical “Nor'Ida” event during 11-14 November and the large swell event from distant Hurricane Bill on 22 August. The coastal impacts associated with Nor'Ida were due to the combined effects of surge, tide, and wave processes and led to an estimated 5.8 million dollars in damage. While the impacts from Hurricane Bill were not as severe as Nor'Ida, they were mainly associated with wave processes. Thus, this event exemplifies the importance of incorporating waves into the total water level and coastal impact prediction process. These examples set the stage for potential future applications including adaption to the more complex topography along the New England coast.

The micro-environmental impact of volatile organic compound emissions from large-scale assemblies of people in a confined space

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dutta, Tanushree

Large-scale assemblies of people in a confined space can exert significant impacts on the local air chemistry due to human emissions of volatile organics. Variations of air-quality in such small scale can be studied by quantifying fingerprint volatile organic compounds (VOCs) such as acetone, toluene, and isoprene produced during concerts, movie screenings, and sport events (like the Olympics and the World Cup). This review summarizes the extent of VOC accumulation resulting from a large population in a confined area or in a small open area during sporting and other recreational activities. Apart from VOCs emitted directly from human bodies (e.g.,more » perspiration and exhaled breath), those released indirectly from other related sources (e.g., smoking, waste disposal, discharge of food-waste, and use of personal-care products) are also discussed. Although direct and indirect emissions of VOCs from human may constitute <1% of the global atmospheric VOCs budget, unique spatiotemporal variations in VOCs species within a confined space can have unforeseen impacts on the local atmosphere to lead to acute human exposure to harmful pollutants.« less

Population, behavioural and physiological responses of an urban population of black swans to an intense annual noise event.

PubMed

Payne, Catherine J; Jessop, Tim S; Guay, Patrick-Jean; Johnstone, Michele; Feore, Megan; Mulder, Raoul A

2012-01-01

Wild animals in urban environments are exposed to a broad range of human activities that have the potential to disturb their life history and behaviour. Wildlife responses to disturbance can range from emigration to modified behaviour, or elevated stress, but these responses are rarely evaluated in concert. We simultaneously examined population, behavioural and hormonal responses of an urban population of black swans Cygnus atratus before, during and after an annual disturbance event involving large crowds and intense noise, the Australian Formula One Grand Prix. Black swan population numbers were lowest one week before the event and rose gradually over the course of the study, peaking after the event, suggesting that the disturbance does not trigger mass emigration. We also found no difference in the proportion of time spent on key behaviours such as locomotion, foraging, resting or self-maintenance over the course of the study. However, basal and capture stress-induced corticosterone levels showed significant variation, consistent with a modest physiological response. Basal plasma corticosterone levels were highest before the event and decreased over the course of the study. Capture-induced stress levels peaked during the Grand Prix and then also declined over the remainder of the study. Our results suggest that even intensely noisy and apparently disruptive events may have relatively low measurable short-term impact on population numbers, behaviour or physiology in urban populations with apparently high tolerance to anthropogenic disturbance. Nevertheless, the potential long-term impact of such disturbance on reproductive success, individual fitness and population health will need to be carefully evaluated.

Population, Behavioural and Physiological Responses of an Urban Population of Black Swans to an Intense Annual Noise Event

PubMed Central

Payne, Catherine J.; Jessop, Tim S.; Guay, Patrick-Jean; Johnstone, Michele; Feore, Megan; Mulder, Raoul A.

2012-01-01

Wild animals in urban environments are exposed to a broad range of human activities that have the potential to disturb their life history and behaviour. Wildlife responses to disturbance can range from emigration to modified behaviour, or elevated stress, but these responses are rarely evaluated in concert. We simultaneously examined population, behavioural and hormonal responses of an urban population of black swans Cygnus atratus before, during and after an annual disturbance event involving large crowds and intense noise, the Australian Formula One Grand Prix. Black swan population numbers were lowest one week before the event and rose gradually over the course of the study, peaking after the event, suggesting that the disturbance does not trigger mass emigration. We also found no difference in the proportion of time spent on key behaviours such as locomotion, foraging, resting or self-maintenance over the course of the study. However, basal and capture stress-induced corticosterone levels showed significant variation, consistent with a modest physiological response. Basal plasma corticosterone levels were highest before the event and decreased over the course of the study. Capture-induced stress levels peaked during the Grand Prix and then also declined over the remainder of the study. Our results suggest that even intensely noisy and apparently disruptive events may have relatively low measurable short-term impact on population numbers, behaviour or physiology in urban populations with apparently high tolerance to anthropogenic disturbance. Nevertheless, the potential long-term impact of such disturbance on reproductive success, individual fitness and population health will need to be carefully evaluated. PMID:23024783

The Influence of the Several Very Large Solar Proton Events in Years 2000-2003 on the Neutral Middle Atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jackman, Charles H.; Sinnhuber, Miriam; Anderson, John; McPeters, Richard D.; FLeming, Eric L.; Russell, James M.

2004-01-01

Solar proton events (SPEs) are known to have caused changes in constituents in the Earth's neutral middle atmosphere. The highly energetic protons produce ionizations, excitations, dissociations, and dissociative ionizations of the background constituents, which lead to the production of HOx (H, OH, HO2) and NOy (N, NO, NO2, NO3, N2O5, HNO3, HO2NO2, ClONO2, BrONO2). The HOx increases lead to short-lived ozone decreases in the mesosphere and upper stratosphere due to the short lifetimes of the HOx constituents. The NOy increases lead to long-lived stratospheric ozone changes because of the long lifetime of the NOy family in this region. The past four years, 2000-2003, have been replete with SPEs and huge fluxes of high energy protons occurred in July and November 2000, September and November 2001, April 2002, and October 2003. Smaller, but still substantial, proton fluxes impacted the Earth during other months from year 2000 to 2003. The Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Two-dimensional (2D) Model was used in computing the influence of the SPEs. The impact of these extremely large SPEs was calculated to be especially large in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere. The results of the GSFC 2D Model will be shown along with comparisons to the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) and Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet 2 (SBUV/2) instruments.

Tidal effects on Earth, Planets, Sun by far visiting moons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fargion, Daniele

2016-07-01

The Earth has been formed by a huge mini-planet collision forming our Earth surface and our Moon today. Such a central collision hit was statistically rare. A much probable skimming or nearby encounter by other moons or planets had to occur. Indeed Recent observations suggest that many planetary-mass objects may be present in the outer solar system between the Kuiper belt and the Oort cloud. Gravitational perturbations may occasionally bring them into the inner solar system. Their passage near Earth could have generated gigantic tidal waves, large volcanic eruptions, sea regressions, large meteoritic impacts and drastic changes in global climate. They could have caused the major biological mass extinctions in the past in the geological records. For instance a ten times a terrestrial radius nearby impact scattering by a peripherical encounter by a small moon-like object will force huge tidal waves (hundred meter height), able to lead to huge tsunami and Earth-quake. Moreover the historical cumulative planet hits in larger and wider planets as Juppiter, Saturn, Uranus will leave a trace, as observed, in their tilted spin axis. Finally a large fraction of counter rotating moons in our solar system probe and test such a visiting mini-planet captur origination. In addition the Earth day duration variability in the early past did show a rare discountinuity, very probably indebt to such a visiting planet crossing event. These far planets in rare trajectory to our Sun may, in thousands event capture, also explain sudden historical and recent temperature changes.

The Geomechanics of CO 2 Storage in Deep Sedimentary Formations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rutqvist, Jonny

2012-01-12

This study provides a review of the geomechanics and modeling of geomechanics associated with geologic carbon storage (GCS), focusing on storage in deep sedimentary formations, in particular saline aquifers. The paper first introduces the concept of storage in deep sedimentary formations, the geomechanical processes and issues related with such an operation, and the relevant geomechanical modeling tools. This is followed by a more detailed review of geomechanical aspects, including reservoir stress-strain and microseismicity, well integrity, caprock sealing performance, and the potential for fault reactivation and notable (felt) seismic events. Geomechanical observations at current GCS field deployments, mainly at the Inmore » Salah CO 2 storage project in Algeria, are also integrated into the review. The In Salah project, with its injection into a relatively thin, low-permeability sandstone is an excellent analogue to the saline aquifers that might be used for large scale GCS in parts of Northwest Europe, the U.S. Midwest, and China. Some of the lessons learned at In Salah related to geomechanics are discussed, including how monitoring of geomechanical responses is used for detecting subsurface geomechanical changes and tracking fluid movements, and how such monitoring and geomechanical analyses have led to preventative changes in the injection parameters. Recently, the importance of geomechanics has become more widely recognized among GCS stakeholders, especially with respect to the potential for triggering notable (felt) seismic events and how such events could impact the long-term integrity of a CO 2 repository (as well as how it could impact the public perception of GCS). As described in the paper, to date, no notable seismic event has been reported from any of the current CO 2 storage projects, although some unfelt microseismic activities have been detected by geophones. However, potential future commercial GCS operations from large power plants will require injection at a much larger scale. In conclusion, for such large-scale injections, a staged, learn-as-you-go approach is recommended, involving a gradual increase of injection rates combined with continuous monitoring of geomechanical changes, as well as siting beneath a multiple layered overburden for multiple flow barrier protection, should an unexpected deep fault reactivation occur.« less

Life cycle assessment of stormwater management in the context of climate change adaptation.

PubMed

Brudler, Sarah; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky; Rygaard, Martin

2016-12-01

Expected increases in pluvial flooding, due to climatic changes, require large investments in the retrofitting of cities to keep damage at an acceptable level. Many cities have investigated the possibility of implementing stormwater management (SWM) systems which are multi-functional and consist of different elements interacting to achieve desired safety levels. Typically, an economic assessment is carried out in the planning phase, while environmental sustainability is given little or no attention. In this paper, life cycle assessment is used to quantify environmental impacts of climate change adaptation strategies. The approach is tested using a climate change adaptation strategy for a catchment in Copenhagen, Denmark. A stormwater management system, using green infrastructure and local retention measures in combination with planned routing of stormwater on the surfaces to manage runoff, is compared to a traditional, sub-surface approach. Flood safety levels based on the Three Points Approach are defined as the functional unit to ensure comparability between systems. The adaptation plan has significantly lower impacts (3-18 person equivalents/year) than the traditional alternative (14-103 person equivalents/year) in all analysed impact categories. The main impacts are caused by managing rain events with return periods between 0.2 and 10 years. The impacts of handling smaller events with a return period of up to 0.2 years and extreme events with a return period of up to 100 years are lower in both alternatives. The uncertainty analysis shows the advantages of conducting an environmental assessment in the early stages of the planning process, when the design can still be optimised, but it also highlights the importance of detailed and site-specific data. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis and hindcast simulations of an extreme rainfall event in the Mediterranean area: The Genoa 2011 case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fiori, E.; Comellas, A.; Molini, L.; Rebora, N.; Siccardi, F.; Gochis, D. J.; Tanelli, S.; Parodi, A.

2014-03-01

The city of Genoa, which places between the Tyrrhenian Sea and the Apennine mountains (Liguria, Italy) was rocked by severe flash floods on the 4th of November, 2011. Nearly 500 mm of rain, a third of the average annual rainfall, fell in six hours. Six people perished and millions of Euros in damages occurred. The synoptic-scale meteorological system moved across the Atlantic Ocean and into the Mediterranean generating floods that killed 5 people in Southern France, before moving over the Ligurian Sea and Genoa producing the extreme event studied here. Cloud-permitting simulations (1 km) of the finger-like convective system responsible for the torrential event over Genoa have been performed using Advanced Research Weather and Forecasting Model (ARW-WRF, version 3.3). Two different microphysics (WSM6 and Thompson) as well as three different convection closures (explicit, Kain-Fritsch, and Betts-Miller-Janjic) were evaluated to gain a deeper understanding of the physical processes underlying the observed heavy rain event and the model's capability to predict, in hindcast mode, its structure and evolution. The impact of forecast initialization and of model vertical discretization on hindcast results is also examined. Comparison between model hindcasts and observed fields provided by raingauge data, satellite data, and radar data show that this particular event is strongly sensitive to the details of the mesoscale initialization despite being evolved from a relatively large scale weather system. Only meso-γ details of the event were not well captured by the best setting of the ARW-WRF model and so peak hourly rainfalls were not exceptionally well reproduced. The results also show that specification of microphysical parameters suitable to these events have a positive impact on the prediction of heavy precipitation intensity values.

Dependence on subconcussive impacts of brain metabolism in collision sport athletes: an MR spectroscopic study.

PubMed

Bari, Sumra; Svaldi, Diana O; Jang, Ikbeom; Shenk, Trey E; Poole, Victoria N; Lee, Taylor; Dydak, Ulrike; Rispoli, Joseph V; Nauman, Eric A; Talavage, Thomas M

2018-05-25

Long term neurological impairments due to repetitive head trauma are a growing concern for collision sport athletes. American Football has the highest rate of reported concussions among male high school athletes, a position held by soccer for female high school athletes. Recent research has shown that subconcussive events experienced by collision sport athletes can be a further significant source of accrued damage. Collision sport athletes experience hundreds of subconcussive events in a single season, and these largely go uninvestigated as they produce no overt clinical symptoms. Continued participation by these seemingly uninjured athletes is hypothesized to increase susceptibility to diagnoseable brain injury. This study paired magnetic resonance spectroscopy with head impact monitoring to quantify the relationship between metabolic changes and head acceleration event characteristics in high school-aged male football and female soccer collision sport athletes. During the period of exposure to subconcussive events, asymptomatic male (football) collision sport athletes exhibited statistically significant changes in concentrations of glutamate+glutamine (Glx) and total choline containing compounds (tCho) in dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, and female (soccer) collision sport athletes exhibited changes in glutamate+glutamine (Glx) in primary motor cortex. Neurometabolic alterations observed in football athletes during the second half of the season were found to be significantly associated with the average acceleration per head acceleration events, being best predicted by the accumulation of events exceeding 50 g. These marked deviations in neurometabolism, in the absence of overt symptoms, raise concern about the neural health of adolescent collision-sport athletes and suggest limiting exposure to head acceleration events may help to ameliorate the risk of subsequent cognitive impairment.

Analysis of Large Seeds from Three Different Medicago truncatula Ecotypes Reveals a Potential Role of Hormonal Balance in Final Size Determination of Legume Grains

PubMed Central

Bandyopadhyay, Kaustav; Uluçay, Orhan; Şakiroğlu, Muhammet; Udvardi, Michael K.; Verdier, Jerome

2016-01-01

Legume seeds are important as protein and oil source for human diet. Understanding how their final seed size is determined is crucial to improve crop yield. In this study, we analyzed seed development of three accessions of the model legume, Medicago truncatula, displaying contrasted seed size. By comparing two large seed accessions to the reference accession A17, we described mechanisms associated with large seed size determination and potential factors modulating the final seed size. We observed that early events during embryogenesis had a major impact on final seed size and a delayed heart stage embryo development resulted to large seeds. We also observed that the difference in seed growth rate was mainly due to a difference in embryo cell number, implicating a role of cell division rate. Large seed accessions could be explained by an extended period of cell division due to a longer embryogenesis phase. According to our observations and recent reports, we observed that auxin (IAA) and abscisic acid (ABA) ratio could be a key determinant of cell division regulation at the end of embryogenesis. Overall, our study highlights that timing of events occurring during early seed development play decisive role for final seed size determination. PMID:27618017

Precipitation event tracking reveals that precipitation characteristics respond differently under seasonal, interannual, and anthropogenic forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, C.; Chang, W.; Kong, W.; Wang, J.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Stein, M.; Moyer, E. J.

2017-12-01

Change in precipitation characteristics is an especially concerning potential impact of climate change, and both model and observational studies suggest that increases in precipitation intensity are likely. However, studies to date have focused on mean accumulated precipitation rather than on the characteristics of individual events. We report here on a study using a novel rainstorm identification tracking algorithm (Chang et al. 2016) that allows evaluating changes in spatio-temporal characteristics of events. We analyze high-resolution precipitation from dynamically downscaled regional climate simulations over the continental U.S. (WRF driven by CCSM4) of present and future climate conditions. We show that precipitation events show distinct characteristic changes for natural seasonal and interannual variations and for anthropogenic greenhouse-gas forcing. In all cases, wetter seasons/years/future climate states are associated with increased precipitation intensity, but other precipitation characteristics respond differently to the different drivers. For example, under anthropogenic forcing, future wetter climate states involve smaller individual event sizes (partially offsetting their increased intensity). Under natural variability, however, wetter years involve larger mean event sizes. Event identification and tracking algorithms thus allow distinguishing drivers of different types of precipitation changes, and in relating those changes to large-scale processes.

The recent breakup of an asteroid in the main-belt region.

PubMed

Nesvorný, David; Bottke, William F; Dones, Luke; Levison, Harold F

2002-06-13

The present population of asteroids in the main belt is largely the result of many past collisions. Ideally, the asteroid fragments resulting from each impact event could help us understand the large-scale collisions that shaped the planets during early epochs. Most known asteroid fragment families, however, are very old and have therefore undergone significant collisional and dynamical evolution since their formation. This evolution has masked the properties of the original collisions. Here we report the discovery of a family of asteroids that formed in a disruption event only 5.8 +/- 0.2 million years ago, and which has subsequently undergone little dynamical and collisional evolution. We identified 39 fragments, two of which are large and comparable in size (diameters of approximately 19 and approximately 14 km), with the remainder exhibiting a continuum of sizes in the range 2-7 km. The low measured ejection velocities suggest that gravitational re-accumulation after a collision may be a common feature of asteroid evolution. Moreover, these data can be used to check numerical models of larger-scale collisions.

Integration of fringe projection and two-dimensional digital image correlation for three-dimensional displacements measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Felipe-Sesé, Luis; López-Alba, Elías; Siegmann, Philip; Díaz, Francisco A.

2016-12-01

A low-cost approach for three-dimensional (3-D) full-field displacement measurement is applied for the analysis of large displacements involved in two different mechanical events. The method is based on a combination of fringe projection and two-dimensional digital image correlation (DIC) techniques. The two techniques have been employed simultaneously using an RGB camera and a color encoding method; therefore, it is possible to measure in-plane and out-of-plane displacements at the same time with only one camera even at high speed rates. The potential of the proposed methodology has been employed for the analysis of large displacements during contact experiments in a soft material block. Displacement results have been successfully compared with those obtained using a 3D-DIC commercial system. Moreover, the analysis of displacements during an impact test on a metal plate was performed to emphasize the application of the methodology for dynamics events. Results show a good level of agreement, highlighting the potential of FP + 2D DIC as low-cost alternative for the analysis of large deformations problems.

The Fogo's Collapse-triggered Megatsunami: Evidence-calibrated Numerical Simulations of Tsunamigenic Potential and Coastal Impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Omira, Rachid; Ramalho, Ricardo S.; Quartau, Rui; Ramalho, Inês; Madeira, José; Baptista, Maria Ana

2017-04-01

Volcanic Ocean Islands are very prominent and dynamic features involving several constructive and destructive phases during their life-cycles. Large-scale gravitational flank collapses are one of the most destructive processes and can present a major source of hazard, since it has been shown that these events are capable of triggering megatsunamis with significant coastal impact. The Fogo volcanic island, Cape Verde, presents evidence for giant edifice mass-wasting, as attested by both onshore and offshore evidence. A recent study by Ramalho et al. (2015) revealed the presence of tsunamigenic deposits that attest the generation of a megatsunami with devastating impact on the nearby Santiago Island, following Fogo's catastrophic collapse. Evidence from northern Santiago implies local minimum run-ups of 270 m, providing a unique physical framework to test collapse-triggered tsunami numerical simulations. In this study, we investigate the tsunamigenic potential associated with Fogo's flank collapse, and its impact on the Islands of the Cape Verde archipelago using field evidence-calibrated numerical simulations. We first reconstruct the pre-event island morphology, and then employ a multilayer numerical model to simulate the flank failure flow towards and under the sea, the ensuing tsunami generation, propagation and coastal impact. We use a digital elevation model that considers the coastline configuration and the sea level at the time of the event. Preliminary numerical modeling results suggest that collapsed volumes of 90-150 km3, in one single event, generate numerical solutions that are compatible with field evidence. Our simulations suggest that Fogo's collapse triggered a megatsunami that reached the coast of Santiago in 8 min, and with wave heights in excess of 250 m. The tsunami waves propagated with lower amplitudes towards the Cape Verde Islands located northward of Fogo. This study will contribute to more realistically assess the scale of risks associated with these extremely rare but very high impact natural disasters. This work is supported by the EU project ASTARTE -Grant 603839, 7th FP (ENV.2013, 6.4-3), the EU project TSUMAPS-NEAM -Agreement Number: ECHO/SUB/2015/718568/PREV26, and the IF/01641/2015 MEGAWAVE - FCT project.

Impacts of anthropogenic activities on different hydrological drought characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tijdeman, Erik; Stahl, Kerstin; Bachmair, Sophie

2015-04-01

The natural hazard drought can have severe impacts on a variety of sectors and at a variety of scales. Droughts, here defined as below average water availability, occur everywhere. However, the impact of a drought event is not only influenced by its severity but also by the vulnerability of an area to droughts. Research in catchments with natural flow conditions is crucial to gain process understanding about hydrological droughts. However, the locations of catchments with natural flow are often not representative for regions with a socioeconomic sector that is highly vulnerable to droughts. In these more vulnerable areas, human activities like groundwater extraction can intensify hydrological droughts. On the other hand, human activities can also mitigate or limit the magnitude of drought events. The aim of this study is to assess the impact of different anthropogenic influences on streamflow droughts by comparing hydrological drought characteristics between catchments with natural streamflow and with regulated or otherwise altered streamflow. The study is based on a large set of streamflow records from catchments in Germany, the UK and the USA with either known anthropogenic influences or natural streamflow conditions. Different drought characteristics (duration, deficit, frequency and timing of drought events) are computed for the selected stations. The drought characteristics in catchments influenced by various anthropogenic activities are stratified by the characteristics of anthropogenic influence, but also by similar physical and climatological properties. These stratified groups are then compared to drought characteristics in natural catchments with similar properties. Results show both negative and positive impacts of different human activities on droughts. For example, urbanized areas with low flow regulations show hydrological droughts with shorter durations and lower deficit volumes compared to nearby natural catchments, while records downstream of reservoirs show intensified drought characteristics. The differences between droughts in natural and regulated flow regimes, however, appear to be non-linear and variable with the severity of drought events. In conclusion, this study shows systematic impacts of human activities on different drought characteristics and furthermore reveals that management patterns have limits during severe droughts.

The History of Allan Hills 84001 Revised: Multiple Shock Events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Treiman, Allan H.

1998-01-01

The geologic history of Martian meteorite Allan Hills (ALH) 84001 is more complex than previously recognized, with evidence for four or five crater-forming impacts onto Mars. This history of repeated deformation and shock metamorphism appears to weaken some arguments that have been offered for and against the hypothesis of ancient Martian life in ALH 84001. Allan Hills 84001 formed originally from basaltic magma. Its first impact event (I1) is inferred from the deformation (D1) that produced the granular-textured bands ("crush zones") that transect the original igneous fabric. Deformation D1 is characterized by intense shear and may represent excavation or rebound flow of rock beneath a large impact crater. An intense thermal metamorphism followed D1 and may be related to it. The next impact (I2) produced fractures, (Fr2) in which carbonate "pancakes" were deposited and produced feldspathic glass from some of the igneous feldspars and silica. After I2, carbonate pancakes and globules were deposited in Fr2 fractures and replaced feldspathic glass and possibly crystalline silicates. Next, feldspars, feldspathic glass, and possibly some carbonates were mobilized and melted in the third impact (I3). Microfaulting, intense fracturing, and shear are also associated with 13. In the fourth impact (I4), the rock was fractured and deformed without significant heating, which permitted remnant magnetization directions to vary across fracture surfaces. Finally, ALH 84001 was ejected from Mars in event I5, which could be identical to I4. This history of multiple impacts is consistent with the photogeology of the Martian highlands and may help resolve some apparent contradictions among recent results on ALH 84001. For example, the submicron rounded magnetite grains in the carbonate globules could be contemporaneous with carbonate deposition, whereas the elongate magnetite grains, epitaxial on carbonates, could be ascribed to vapor-phase deposition during I3.

Rock and Roll at the Apollo 17 Site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martel, L. M. V.

2016-06-01

Astronauts Eugene A. Cernan and Harrison H. (Jack) Schmitt collected 243 pounds (110 kg) of rock and regolith samples during 22 hours working on the lunar surface during the Apollo 17 mission in December 1972, while Astronaut Ronald Evans orbited in the command module. The field observations, audio descriptions, and photographs coupled with orbital data and detailed, laboratory analyses of Apollo samples provided unprecedented information about the Moon and its geologic history. The Apollo samples continue to inspire new questions and answers about the Moon. Debra Hurwitz and David Kring (Lunar and Planetary Institute and NASA Solar System Exploration Research Virtual Institute; Hurwitz now at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center) were particularly interested in solving the mystery of where the boulders came from at the base of the North Massif (station 6) and at the base of the South Massif (station 2) from which Apollo 17 astronauts collected samples of impact melt breccias. The breccias were unequivocally formed by impact processes, but forty years of analyses had not yet determined unambiguously which impact event was responsible. Was it the basin-forming event of the landing site's neighbor Serenitatis (possibly Nectarian age); the larger, nearby Imbrium basin (Imbrian age and one of the last large basins to form); a combination of these impacts or an impact event older or younger than all of the above. Tracking down the origin of the boulders would ideally unravel details of the formation age of the breccias and, ultimately, help with the historical record of basin formation on the Moon. Hurwitz and Kring verified the boulders rolled down from massif walls - Apollo 17 impact melt breccias originated in massif material, not from the Sculptured Hills, an overlying geologic unit. But the relative geologic context is easier to explain than the absolute age, at least until some discrepancies are resolved in existing Ar-Ar and U-Pb radiometric ages of the Apollo 17 impact melt breccias.

Late Coupled Evolution of Venus' Atmosphere and the Effects of Meteoritic Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gillmann, C.; Tackley, P. J.; Golabek, G.

2013-12-01

We investigate what mechanisms and events could have led to the divergent evolution of Venus and Earth. We propose develop our investigation of the post-magma-ocean history of the atmosphere and surface conditions on Venus through a coupled model of mantle/atmosphere evolution by including meteoritic impacts in our previous work. Our main focuses are mechanisms that deplete or replenish the atmosphere: volcanic degassing, atmospheric escape and impacts. Atmospheric escape modeling involves two different aspects. During the first few hundreds of million years, hydrodynamic escape is dominant. A significant portion of the early atmosphere can be thus removed. For later evolution, on the other hand, non-thermal escape becomes the main process as observed by the ASPERA instrument and modeled in various recent numerical studies. The atmosphere is replenished by volcanic degassing, using an adapted version of the StagYY mantle dynamics model (Armann and Tackley, 2012) and including episodic lithospheric overturn. The evolving surface temperature is calculated from CO2 and water in the atmosphere with a gray radiative-convective atmosphere model. This surface temperature in turn acts as a boundary condition for the mantle dynamics model and has an influence on the convection, volcanism and subsequent degassing. We take into account the effects of meteorites in our simulations by adapting each relevant part of the model. They can bring volatiles as well as erode the atmosphere. Mantle dynamics are modified since the impact itself can also bring large amounts of energy to the mantle. A 2D distribution of the thermal anomaly due to the impact is used and can lead to melting. Volatile evolution due to impacts (especially the large ones) is heavily debated so we test a broad range of impactor parameters (size, velocity, timing) and test different assumptions related to impact erosion going from large eroding power (Ahrens 1993) to recent parameterization (Shuvalov, 2009, 2010). We obtain a Venus-like behavior for the solid planet and atmospheric evolution leading to present-day conditions. Without any impact, CO2 pressure seems unlikely to vary much over the history of the planet, only slightly increasing due to degassing. A late build-up of the atmosphere with several resurfacing events seems unlikely. On the other hand, water pressure is strongly sensitive to volcanic activity and varies rapidly leading to variations in surface temperatures of up to 200K, which have been identified to have an effect on volcanic activity. We observe a clear correlation between low temperature and mobile lid regime. Impacts can strongly change this picture. While small (less than kilometer scale) meteorites have a negligible effect, medium ones are able to bring volatiles to the planet and generate melt both at the impact and later on, due to volcanic events they triggered due to the changes they make to mantle dynamics. A significant amount of volatiles (compared to present-day atmosphere) can be released on a short timescale, which can increase the surface temperature by tens of Kelvin. Larger impactors (~100 km) have even stronger effects as they can blow upwards of 10% of the atmosphere away, depending on the parameters. Removing more than 80% of the atmosphere on the impact is clearly feasible. In these cases, later degassing is also massive, which mitigates the volatile sink.

Extreme Geohazards: Reducing Disaster Risk and Increasing Resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plag, Hans-Peter; Stein, Seth; Brocklebank, Sean; Jules-Plag, Shelley; Campus, Paola

2014-05-01

Extreme natural hazards have the potential to cause global disasters and to lead to an escalation of the global sustainability crisis. Floods and droughts pose threats that could reach planetary extent, particularly through secondary economic and social impacts. Earthquakes and tsunamis cause disasters that could exceed the immediate coping capacity of the global economy, particularly in hazardous areas containing megacities, that can be particularly vulnerable to natural hazards if proper emergency protocols and infrastructures are not set in place. Recent events illustrate the destruction extreme hazards can inflict, both directly and indirectly, through domino effects resulting from the interaction with the built environment. Unfortunately, the more humanity learns to cope with relatively frequent (50 to 100 years) natural hazard events, the less concerns remain about the low-probability (one in a few hundred or more years) high-impact events. As a consequence, threats from low-probability extreme floods, droughts, and volcanic eruptions are not appropriately accounted for in Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) discussions. With the support of the European Science Foundation (ESF), the Geohazards Community of Practice (GHCP) of the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) has developed a White Paper (WP) on the risk associated with low-probability, high-impact geohazards. These events are insufficiently addressed in risk management, although their potential impacts are comparable to those of a large asteroid impact, a global pandemic, or an extreme drought. The WP aims to increase awareness of the risk associated with these events as a basis for a comprehensive risk management. Extreme geohazards have occurred regularly throughout the past, but mostly did not cause major disasters because the exposure of human assets to such hazards and the global population density were much lower than today. The most extreme events during the last 2,000 years would cause today unparalleled damage on a global scale for a globally connected and stressed society. In particular, large volcanic eruptions could impact climate, damage anthropogenic infrastructure and interrupt resource supplies on a global scale. The occurrence of one or more of the largest volcanic eruptions that took place during the last 2,000 years under today's conditions would likely cause global disasters or catastrophes challenging civilization. Integration of these low-probability, high-impact events in DRR requires an approach focused on resilience and antifragility, as well as the ability to cope with, and recover from failure of infrastructures and social systems. Resilience results from social capital even more than from the robustness of infrastructure. While it is important to understand the hazards through the contribution of geosciences, it is equally important to understand through the contribution of social sciences and engineering the societal processes involved with coping with hazards or leading to failure. For comprehensive development of resilience to natural hazards and, in particular, extreme geohazards, synergy between geosciences, engineering and social sciences, jointed to an improved science-policy relationship is key to success. For example, a simple cost-benefit analysis shows that a comprehensive monitoring system that could identify the onset of an extreme volcanic eruption with sufficient lead time to allow for a globally coordinated preparation makes economic sense. The WP recommends implementation of such a monitoring system with global coverage, assesses the existing assets in current monitoring systems, and illustrates many benefits, besides providing early warning for extreme volcanic eruptions. However, such a monitoring system can provide resilience only via the capability of the global community to react to early warnings. The WP recommends achieving this through the establishment of a global coordination platform comparable to IPCC's role in addressing climate-change related issues to assess knowledge and related adaptive capabilities for disasters due to extreme geohazards.

Metallic particles from the Macha meteorite crater and several placer deposits in Iakutiia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gurov, E. P.; Kolesov, G. M.; Kudinova, L. A.; Rakitskaia, R. B.; Samoilovich, L. G.

The composition of metallic particles from the Macha crater in Iakutiia is shown to be close to the composition of cosmogenic particles from the region of the Tungusk meteorite as well as Ukrainian placer deposits. A description is given of cosmogenic particles from placer deposits of northern Iakutiia, whose formation may be connected with a large impact event in the northeastern part of the USSR.

Catastrophic Drought in the Afro-Asian Monsoon Region During Heinrich Event 1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stager, J. Curt; Ryves, David B.; Chase, Brian M.; Pausata, Francesco S. R.

2011-03-01

Between 15,000 and 18,000 years ago, large amounts of ice and meltwater entered the North Atlantic during Heinrich stadial 1. This caused substantial regional cooling, but major climatic impacts also occurred in the tropics. Here, we demonstrate that the height of this stadial, about 16,000 to 17,000 years ago (Heinrich event 1), coincided with one of the most extreme and widespread megadroughts of the past 50,000 years or more in the Afro-Asian monsoon region, with potentially serious consequences for Paleolithic cultures. Late Quaternary tropical drying commonly is attributed to southward drift of the intertropical convergence zone, but the broad geographic range of the Heinrich event 1 megadrought suggests that severe, systemic weakening of Afro-Asian rainfall systems also occurred, probably in response to sea surface cooling.

Disaster Response Modeling Through Discrete-Event Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Jeffrey; Gilmer, Graham

2012-01-01

Organizations today are required to plan against a rapidly changing, high-cost environment. This is especially true for first responders to disasters and other incidents, where critical decisions must be made in a timely manner to save lives and resources. Discrete-event simulations enable organizations to make better decisions by visualizing complex processes and the impact of proposed changes before they are implemented. A discrete-event simulation using Simio software has been developed to effectively analyze and quantify the imagery capabilities of domestic aviation resources conducting relief missions. This approach has helped synthesize large amounts of data to better visualize process flows, manage resources, and pinpoint capability gaps and shortfalls in disaster response scenarios. Simulation outputs and results have supported decision makers in the understanding of high risk locations, key resource placement, and the effectiveness of proposed improvements.

Long-Term Impacts Faced by Patients and Families After Harmful Healthcare Events.

PubMed

Ottosen, Madelene J; Sedlock, Emily W; Aigbe, Aitebureme O; Bell, Sigall K; Gallagher, Thomas H; Thomas, Eric J

2018-01-17

Patients and families report experiencing a multitude of harms from medical errors resulting in physical, emotional, and financial hardships. Little is known about the duration and nature of these harms and the type of support needed to promote patient and family healing after such events. We sought to describe the long-term impacts (LTIs) reported by patients and family members who experienced harmful medical events 5 or more years ago. We performed a content analysis on 32 interviews originally conducted with 72 patients or family members about their views of the factors contributing to their self-reported harmful event. Interviews selected occurred 5 or more years after the harmful event and were grouped by time since event, 5 to 9 years (22 interviews) or 10 or more years (10 interviews) for analysis. We analyzed these interviews targeting spontaneous references of ongoing impacts experienced by the participants. Participants collectively described the following four LTIs: psychological, social/behavioral, physical, and financial. Most cited psychological impacts with half-reporting ongoing anger and vivid memories. More than half reported ongoing physical impacts and one-third experienced ongoing financial impacts. Long-term social and behavioral impacts such as alterations in lifestyle, self-identity, and healthcare seeking behaviors were the most highly reported. These patients and families experienced many profound LTIs after their harmful medical event. For some, these impacts evolved into secondary harms ongoing 10 years and more after the event. Our results draw attention to the persistent impacts patients and families may experience long after harmful events and the need for future research to understand and support affected patients and families.

Tsunami hazard assessment in La Reunion and Mayotte Islands in the Indian Ocean : detailed modeling of tsunami impacts for the PREPARTOI project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quentel, E.; Loevenbruck, A.; Sahal, A.; Lavigne, F.

2011-12-01

Significant tsunamis have often affected the southwest Indian Ocean. The scientific project PREPARTOI (Prévention et REcherche pour l'Atténuation du Risque Tsunami dans l'Océan Indien), partly founded by the MAIF foundation, aims at assessing the tsunami risk on both french islands of this region, La Réunion and Mayotte. Further purpose of this project is the detailed hazard and vulnerability study for specific places of these islands, selected according to their environmental and human issues and observed impacts of past tsunamis. Tsunami hazard in this region, recently highlighted by major events in the southwest Indian Ocean, has never been thoroughly evaluated. Our study, within the PREPARTOI project, contributes to fill in this lack. It aims at examining transoceanic tsunami hazard related to earthquakes by modeling the scenarios of major historical events. We consider earthquakes with magnitude greater than Mw 7.7 located on the Sumatra (1833, 2004, 2010), Java (2006) and Makran (1945) subduction zones. First, our simulations allow us to compare the tsunami impact at regional scale according to the seismic sources; we thus identify earthquakes locations which most affect the islands and describe the impact distribution along their coastline. In general, we note that, for the same magnitude, events coming from the southern part of Sumatra subduction zone induce a larger impact than the north events. The studied tsunamis initiated along the Java and Makran subduction zones have limited effects on both French islands. Then, detailed models for the selected sites are performed based on high resolution bathymetric and topographic data; they provide estimations of the water currents, the water heights and the potential inundations. When available, field measurements and maregraphic records allow testing our models. Arrival time, amplitude of the first wave and impact on the tide gauge time series are well reproduced. Models are consistent with the observations. During historical tsunamis events, Mayotte registered important run-up along its coasts (between 3 and 4.4 m for the 2004 event). In La Réunion, the west coast is the most affected (to 2.7 m in the harbor of La Possession for 2004 event) by transoceanic tsunamis. For example, selected sites situated along the West coast of La Réunion are significantly impacted. Simulations have been performed at St Paul; the low topography of this town could make it particularly vulnerable to tsunami waves. Harbors, particularly prone to undergo significant damages, are also examined. The harbors of La Pointe des Galets and La Possession, respectively west and east of the town of Le Port, are studied in details in order to characterize and quantify potential large waves and strong currents. Outside the harbors as well as at Saint Paul, inundations are predicted along the coastline due to important local water heights (> 2.5 m).

Real-time measurements, rare events and photon economics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jalali, B.; Solli, D. R.; Goda, K.; Tsia, K.; Ropers, C.

2010-07-01

Rogue events otherwise known as outliers and black swans are singular, rare, events that carry dramatic impact. They appear in seemingly unconnected systems in the form of oceanic rogue waves, stock market crashes, evolution, and communication systems. Attempts to understand the underlying dynamics of such complex systems that lead to spectacular and often cataclysmic outcomes have been frustrated by the scarcity of events, resulting in insufficient statistical data, and by the inability to perform experiments under controlled conditions. Extreme rare events also occur in ultrafast physical sciences where it is possible to collect large data sets, even for rare events, in a short time period. The knowledge gained from observing rare events in ultrafast systems may provide valuable insight into extreme value phenomena that occur over a much slower timescale and that have a closer connection with human experience. One solution is a real-time ultrafast instrument that is capable of capturing singular and randomly occurring non-repetitive events. The time stretch technology developed during the past 13 years is providing a powerful tool box for reaching this goal. This paper reviews this technology and discusses its use in capturing rogue events in electronic signals, spectroscopy, and imaging. We show an example in nonlinear optics where it was possible to capture rare and random solitons whose unusual statistical distribution resemble those observed in financial markets. The ability to observe the true spectrum of each event in real time has led to important insight in understanding the underlying process, which in turn has made it possible to control soliton generation leading to improvement in the coherence of supercontinuum light. We also show a new class of fast imagers which are being considered for early detection of cancer because of their potential ability to detect rare diseased cells (so called rogue cells) in a large population of healthy cells.

Australian Aboriginal Geomythology: Eyewitness Accounts of Cosmic Impacts?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamacher, Duane W.; Norris, Ray P.

2009-12-01

Descriptions of cosmic impacts and meteorite falls are found throughout Australian Aboriginal oral traditions. In some cases, these texts describe the impact event in detail, sometimes citing the location, suggesting that the events were witnessed. We explore whether cosmic impacts and meteorite falls may have been witnessed by Aboriginal Australians and incorporated into their oral traditions. We discuss the complications and bias in recording and analysing oral texts but suggest that these texts may be used both to locate new impact structures or meteorites and model observed impact events. We find that, while detailed Aboriginal descriptions of cosmic impacts are abundant in the literature, there is currently no physical evidence connecting these accounts to impact events currently known to Western science.

Australian climate extremes at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

King, Andrew D.; Karoly, David J.; Henley, Benjamin J.

2017-06-01

To avoid more severe impacts from climate change, there is international agreement to strive to limit warming to below 1.5 °C. However, there is a lack of literature assessing climate change at 1.5 °C and the potential benefits in terms of reduced frequency of extreme events. Here, we demonstrate that existing model simulations provide a basis for rapid and rigorous analysis of the effects of different levels of warming on large-scale climate extremes, using Australia as a case study. We show that limiting warming to 1.5 °C, relative to 2 °C, would perceptibly reduce the frequency of extreme heat events in Australia. The Australian continent experiences a variety of high-impact climate extremes that result in loss of life, and economic and environmental damage. Events similar to the record-hot summer of 2012-2013 and warm seas associated with bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef in 2016 would be substantially less likely, by about 25% in both cases, if warming is kept to lower levels. The benefits of limiting warming on hydrometeorological extremes are less clear. This study provides a framework for analysing climate extremes at 1.5 °C global warming.

Historical Time Series of Extreme Convective Weather in Finland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laurila, T. K.; Mäkelä, A.; Rauhala, J.; Olsson, T.; Jylhä, K.

2016-12-01

Thunderstorms, lightning, tornadoes, downbursts, large hail and heavy precipitation are well-known for their impacts to human life. In the high latitudes as in Finland, these hazardous warm season convective weather events are focused in the summer season, roughly from May to September with peak in the midsummer. The position of Finland between the maritime Atlantic and the continental Asian climate zones makes possible large variability in weather in general which reflects also to the occurrence of severe weather; the hot, moist and extremely unstable air masses sometimes reach Finland and makes possible for the occurrence of extreme and devastating weather events. Compared to lower latitudes, the Finnish climate of severe convection is "moderate" and contains a large year-to-year variation; however, behind the modest annual average is hidden the climate of severe weather events that practically every year cause large economical losses and sometimes even losses of life. Because of the increased vulnerability of our modern society, these episodes have gained recently plenty of interest. During the decades, the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) has collected observations and damage descriptions of severe weather episodes in Finland; thunderstorm days (1887-present), annual number of lightning flashes (1960-present), tornados (1796-present), large hail (1930-present), heavy rainfall (1922-present). The research findings show e.g. that a severe weather event may occur practically anywhere in the country, although in general the probability of occurrence is smaller in the Northern Finland. This study, funded by the Finnish Research Programme on Nuclear Power Plant Safety (SAFIR), combines the individual Finnish severe weather time series' and examines their trends, cross-correlation and correlations with other atmospheric parameters. Furthermore, a numerical weather model (HARMONIE) simulation is performed for a historical severe weather case for analyzing how well the present state-of-the-art models grasp these small-scale weather phenomena. Our results give important background for estimating the Finnish severe weather climate in the future.

When Worlds Collide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schultz, P. H.

1997-07-01

Although considerable attention has been paid to the catastrophic fragmentation of small planetary bodies following hypervelocity collisions, laboratory experiments at the NASA Ames Vertical Gun Range allow documenting the fate of the impactor. Of particular interest is the effect of oblique impacts on curved planetary surfaces, i.e., when the size of the impactor approaches 20% of the size of the target. Such experiments reveal that the shock created at first contact disrupts and decouples the impactor before it penetrates the target for 5-6 km/s impact velocities. This process has five important consequences. First, relatively large impactor fragments can survive the collision with minimal damage (5-6 largest sizes = 10% of the impactor mass). Moreover, surface curvature ensures escape of larger impactor debris exhibiting a wide range of shocked states. Second, these fragments follow different trajectories depending on their style of failure (spallation or shear) and provenance (their location in the impactor). Third, a low impedance veneer (regolith) reduces the degree of impactor fragmentation. Fourth, the process significantly decreases the energy (peak pressure) in the target and allows its survival even for collisions with large specific energies. Nevertheless, significant residual mafic melts result through frictional heating. And fifth, nominal oblique trajectories (30 deg) become equivalent to much lower angle events (< 10 deg) as the impactor:target ratio approaches 1:4. This process can be scaled (to first order) to asteroid-size events and could provide a mechanism to produce different meteor streams and asteroid families from a single event while leaving behind an intact but mafic scar on the parent body.

The Japanese tsunami and resulting nuclear emergency at the Fukushima Daiichi power facility: technical, radiologic, and response perspectives.

PubMed

Dauer, Lawrence T; Zanzonico, Pat; Tuttle, R Michael; Quinn, Dennis M; Strauss, H William

2011-09-01

The Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power facility, in the Futaba District of the Fukushima Prefecture in Japan, was severely damaged by the earthquake and ensuing tsunami that struck off the northern coast of the island of Honshu on March 11, 2011. The resulting structural damage to the plant disabled the reactor's cooling systems and led to significant, ongoing environmental releases of radioactivity, triggering a mandatory evacuation of a large area surrounding the plant. The status of the facility continues to change, and permanent control of its radioactive inventory has not yet been achieved. The purpose of this educational article is to summarize the short-term chronology, radiologic consequences, emergency responses, and long-term challenges associated with this event. Although there is ongoing debate on preparedness before the event and the candor of responsible entities in recognizing and disclosing its severity, it largely appears that appropriate key actions were taken by the Japanese authorities during the event that should mitigate any radiologic health impact. These actions include an organized evacuation of over 200,000 inhabitants from the vicinity of the site and areas early in the emergency; monitoring of food and water and placement of radiation limits on such foodstuffs; distribution of stable potassium iodide; and systematic scanning of evacuees. However, the risk of additional fuel damage and of further, perhaps substantial, releases persists. The situation at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear facility remains fluid, and the long-term environmental and health impact will likely take years to fully delineate.

Modeling the intense 2012-2013 dense water formation event in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea: Evaluation with an ensemble simulation approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waldman, Robin; Somot, Samuel; Herrmann, Marine; Bosse, Anthony; Caniaux, Guy; Estournel, Claude; Houpert, Loic; Prieur, Louis; Sevault, Florence; Testor, Pierre

2017-02-01

The northwestern Mediterranean Sea is a well-observed ocean deep convection site. Winter 2012-2013 was an intense and intensely documented dense water formation (DWF) event. We evaluate this DWF event in an ensemble configuration of the regional ocean model NEMOMED12. We then assess for the first time the impact of ocean intrinsic variability on DWF with a novel perturbed initial state ensemble method. Finally, we identify the main physical mechanisms driving water mass transformations. NEMOMED12 reproduces accurately the deep convection chronology between late January and March, its location off the Gulf of Lions although with a southward shift and its magnitude. It fails to reproduce the Western Mediterranean Deep Waters salinification and warming, consistently with too strong a surface heat loss. The Ocean Intrinsic Variability modulates half of the DWF area, especially in the open-sea where the bathymetry slope is low. It modulates marginally (3-5%) the integrated DWF rate, but its increase with time suggests its impact could be larger at interannual timescales. We conclude that ensemble frameworks are necessary to evaluate accurately numerical simulations of DWF. Each phase of DWF has distinct diapycnal and thermohaline regimes: during preconditioning, the Mediterranean thermohaline circulation is driven by exchanges with the Algerian basin. During the intense mixing phase, surface heat fluxes trigger deep convection and internal mixing largely determines the resulting deep water properties. During restratification, lateral exchanges and internal mixing are enhanced. Finally, isopycnal mixing was shown to play a large role in water mass transformations during the preconditioning and restratification phases.

Evolution of precipitation extremes in two large ensembles of climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martel, Jean-Luc; Mailhot, Alain; Talbot, Guillaume; Brissette, François; Ludwig, Ralf; Frigon, Anne; Leduc, Martin; Turcotte, Richard

2017-04-01

Recent studies project significant changes in the future distribution of precipitation extremes due to global warming. It is likely that extreme precipitation intensity will increase in a future climate and that extreme events will be more frequent. In this work, annual maxima daily precipitation series from the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) 50-member large ensemble (spatial resolution of 2.8°x2.8°) and the Community Earth System Model (CESM1) 40-member large ensemble (spatial resolution of 1°x1°) are used to investigate extreme precipitation over the historical (1980-2010) and future (2070-2100) periods. The use of these ensembles results in respectively 1 500 (30 years x 50 members) and 1200 (30 years x 40 members) simulated years over both the historical and future periods. These large datasets allow the computation of empirical daily extreme precipitation quantiles for large return periods. Using the CanESM2 and CESM1 large ensembles, extreme daily precipitation with return periods ranging from 2 to 100 years are computed in historical and future periods to assess the impact of climate change. Results indicate that daily precipitation extremes generally increase in the future over most land grid points and that these increases will also impact the 100-year extreme daily precipitation. Considering that many public infrastructures have lifespans exceeding 75 years, the increase in extremes has important implications on service levels of water infrastructures and public safety. Estimated increases in precipitation associated to very extreme precipitation events (e.g. 100 years) will drastically change the likelihood of flooding and their extent in future climate. These results, although interesting, need to be extended to sub-daily durations, relevant for urban flooding protection and urban infrastructure design (e.g. sewer networks, culverts). Models and simulations at finer spatial and temporal resolution are therefore needed.

Impact Lithologies and Post-Impact Hydrothermal Alteration Exposed by the Chicxulub Scientific Drilling Project, Yaxcopoil, Mexico

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kring, David A.; Zurcher, Lukas; Horz, Friedrich

2003-01-01

The Chicxulub Scientific Drilling Project recovered a continuous core from the Yaxcopoil-1 (YAX-1) borehole, which is approx.60-65 km from the center of the Chicxulub structure, approx.15 km beyond the limit of the estimated approx.50 km radius transient crater (excavation cavity), but within the rim of the estimated approx.90 km radius final crater. Approximately approx.100 m of melt-bearing impactites were recoverd from a depth of 794 to 895 m, above approx.600 m of underlying megablocks of Cretaceous target sediments, before bottoming at 1511 m. Compared to lithologies at impact craters like the Ries, the YAX-1 impactite sequence is incredibly rich in impact melts of unusual textural variety and complexity. The impactite sequence has also been altered by hydrothermal activity that may have largely been produced by the impact event.

Ice Particle Analysis of the Honeywell AL502 Engine Booster

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bidwell, Colin S.; Rigby, David L.

2015-01-01

A flow and ice particle trajectory analysis was performed for the booster of the Honeywell ALF502 engine. The analysis focused on two closely related conditions one of which produced an icing event and another which did not during testing of the ALF502 engine in the Propulsion Systems Lab (PSL) at NASA Glenn Research Center. The flow analysis was generated using the NASA Glenn GlennHT flow solver and the particle analysis was generated using the NASA Glenn LEWICE3D v3.63 ice accretion software. The inflow conditions for the two conditions were similar with the main differences being that the condition that produced the icing event was 6.8 K colder than the non-icing event case and the inflow ice water content (IWC) for the non-icing event case was 50% less than for the icing event case. The particle analysis, which considered sublimation, evaporation and phase change, was generated for a 5 micron ice particle with a sticky impact model and for a 24 micron median volume diameter (MVD), 7 bin ice particle distribution with a supercooled large droplet (SLD) splash model used to simulate ice particle breakup. The particle analysis did not consider the effect of the runback and re-impingement of water resulting from the heated spinner and anti-icing system. The results from the analysis showed that the amount of impingement for the components were similar for the same particle size and impact model for the icing and non-icing event conditions. This was attributed to the similar aerodynamic conditions in the booster for the two cases. The particle temperature and melt fraction were higher at the same location and particle size for the non-icing event than for the icing event case due to the higher incoming inflow temperature for the non-event case. The 5 micron ice particle case produced higher impact temperatures and higher melt fractions on the components downstream of the fan than the 24 micron MVD case because the average particle size generated by the particle breakup was larger than 5 microns which yielded less warming and melting. The analysis also showed that the melt fraction and wet bulb temperature icing criterion developed during tests in the Research Altitude Test Facility (RATFac) at the National Research Council (NRC) of Canada were useful in predicting icing events in the ALF502 engine. The development of an ice particle impact model which includes the effects of particle breakup, phase change, and surface state is necessary to further improve the prediction of ice particle transport with phase change through turbomachinery.

The 2014 coral bleaching and freshwater flood events in Kāne'ohe Bay, Hawai'i.

PubMed

Bahr, Keisha D; Jokiel, Paul L; Rodgers, Kuʻulei S

2015-01-01

Until recently, subtropical Hawai'i escaped the major bleaching events that have devastated many tropical regions, but the continued increases in global long-term mean temperatures and the apparent ending of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) cool phase have increased the risk of bleaching events. Climate models and observations predict that bleaching in Hawai'i will occur with increasing frequency and increasing severity over future decades. A freshwater "kill" event occurred during July 2014 in the northern part of Kāne'ohe Bay that reduced coral cover by 22.5% in the area directly impacted by flooding. A subsequent major bleaching event during September 2014 caused extensive coral bleaching and mortality throughout the bay and further reduced coral cover in the freshwater kill area by 60.0%. The high temperature bleaching event only caused a 1.0% reduction in live coral throughout the portion of the bay not directly impacted by the freshwater event. Thus, the combined impact of the low salinity event and the thermal bleaching event appears to be more than simply additive. The temperature regime during the September 2014 bleaching event was analogous in duration and intensity to that of the large bleaching event that occurred previously during August 1996, but resulted in a much larger area of bleaching and coral mortality. Apparently seasonal timing as well as duration and magnitude of heating is important. Coral spawning in the dominant coral species occurs early in the summer, so reservoirs of stored lipid in the corals had been depleted by spawning prior to the September 2014 event. Warm months above 27 °C result in lower coral growth and presumably could further decrease lipid reserves, leading to a bleaching event that was more severe than would have happened if the high temperatures occurred earlier in the summer. Hawaiian reef corals decrease skeletal growth at temperatures above 27 °C, so perhaps the "stress period" actually started long before the bleaching threshold of 29 °C was reached. Hawai'i is directly influenced by the PDO which may become a factor influencing bleaching events in subtropical Hawai'i in much the same manner as variations in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences bleaching events at low latitudes in the tropical Pacific. Records show that offshore temperatures measured by satellite will not always predict inshore bleaching because other factors (high cloud cover, high wind and wave action, tidal exchange rate) can limit inshore heating and prevent temperatures in the bay from reaching the bleaching threshold. Low light levels due to cloud cover or high turbidity can also serve to prevent bleaching.

The 2014 coral bleaching and freshwater flood events in Kāneʻohe Bay, Hawaiʻi

PubMed Central

Jokiel, Paul L.; Rodgers, Kuʻulei S.

2015-01-01

Until recently, subtropical Hawaiʻi escaped the major bleaching events that have devastated many tropical regions, but the continued increases in global long-term mean temperatures and the apparent ending of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) cool phase have increased the risk of bleaching events. Climate models and observations predict that bleaching in Hawaiʻi will occur with increasing frequency and increasing severity over future decades. A freshwater “kill” event occurred during July 2014 in the northern part of Kāneʻohe Bay that reduced coral cover by 22.5% in the area directly impacted by flooding. A subsequent major bleaching event during September 2014 caused extensive coral bleaching and mortality throughout the bay and further reduced coral cover in the freshwater kill area by 60.0%. The high temperature bleaching event only caused a 1.0% reduction in live coral throughout the portion of the bay not directly impacted by the freshwater event. Thus, the combined impact of the low salinity event and the thermal bleaching event appears to be more than simply additive. The temperature regime during the September 2014 bleaching event was analogous in duration and intensity to that of the large bleaching event that occurred previously during August 1996, but resulted in a much larger area of bleaching and coral mortality. Apparently seasonal timing as well as duration and magnitude of heating is important. Coral spawning in the dominant coral species occurs early in the summer, so reservoirs of stored lipid in the corals had been depleted by spawning prior to the September 2014 event. Warm months above 27 °C result in lower coral growth and presumably could further decrease lipid reserves, leading to a bleaching event that was more severe than would have happened if the high temperatures occurred earlier in the summer. Hawaiian reef corals decrease skeletal growth at temperatures above 27 °C, so perhaps the “stress period” actually started long before the bleaching threshold of 29 °C was reached. Hawaiʻi is directly influenced by the PDO which may become a factor influencing bleaching events in subtropical Hawaiʻi in much the same manner as variations in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences bleaching events at low latitudes in the tropical Pacific. Records show that offshore temperatures measured by satellite will not always predict inshore bleaching because other factors (high cloud cover, high wind and wave action, tidal exchange rate) can limit inshore heating and prevent temperatures in the bay from reaching the bleaching threshold. Low light levels due to cloud cover or high turbidity can also serve to prevent bleaching. PMID:26290792

Improving healthcare systems' disclosures of large-scale adverse events: a Department of Veterans Affairs leadership, policymaker, research and stakeholder partnership.

PubMed

Elwy, A Rani; Bokhour, Barbara G; Maguire, Elizabeth M; Wagner, Todd H; Asch, Steven M; Gifford, Allen L; Gallagher, Thomas H; Durfee, Janet M; Martinello, Richard A; Schiffner, Susan; Jesse, Robert L

2014-12-01

The Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) mandates disclosure of large-scale adverse events to patients, even if risk of harm is not clearly present. Concerns about past disclosures warranted further examination of the impact of this policy. Through a collaborative partnership between VA leaders, policymakers, researchers and stakeholders, the objective was to empirically identify critical aspects of disclosure processes as a first step towards improving future disclosures. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with participants at nine VA facilities where recent disclosures took place. Ninety-seven stakeholders participated in the interviews: 38 employees, 28 leaders (from facilities, regions and national offices), 27 Veteran patients and family members, and four congressional staff members. Facility and regional leaders were interviewed by telephone, followed by a two-day site visit where employees, patients and family members were interviewed face-to-face. National leaders and congressional staff also completed telephone interviews. Interviews were analyzed using rapid qualitative assessment processes. Themes were mapped to the stages of the Crisis and Emergency Risk Communication model: pre-crisis, initial event, maintenance, resolution and evaluation. Many areas for improvement during disclosure were identified, such as preparing facilities better (pre-crisis), creating rapid communications, modifying disclosure language, addressing perceptions of harm, reducing complexity, and seeking assistance from others (initial event), managing communication with other stakeholders (maintenance), minimizing effects on staff and improving trust (resolution), and addressing facilities' needs (evaluation). Through the partnership, five recommendations to improve disclosures during each stage of communication have been widely disseminated throughout the VA using non-academic strategies. Some improvements have been made; other recommendations will be addressed through implementation of a large-scale adverse event disclosure toolkit. These toolkit strategies will enable leaders to provide timely and transparent information to patients and families, while reducing the burden on employees and the healthcare system during these events.

The Generation of a Stochastic Flood Event Catalogue for Continental USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quinn, N.; Wing, O.; Smith, A.; Sampson, C. C.; Neal, J. C.; Bates, P. D.

2017-12-01

Recent advances in the acquisition of spatiotemporal environmental data and improvements in computational capabilities has enabled the generation of large scale, even global, flood hazard layers which serve as a critical decision-making tool for a range of end users. However, these datasets are designed to indicate only the probability and depth of inundation at a given location and are unable to describe the likelihood of concurrent flooding across multiple sites.Recent research has highlighted that although the estimation of large, widespread flood events is of great value to flood mitigation and insurance industries, to date it has been difficult to deal with this spatial dependence structure in flood risk over relatively large scales. Many existing approaches have been restricted to empirical estimates of risk based on historic events, limiting their capability of assessing risk over the full range of plausible scenarios. Therefore, this research utilises a recently developed model-based approach to describe the multisite joint distribution of extreme river flows across continental USA river gauges. Given an extreme event at a site, the model characterises the likelihood neighbouring sites are also impacted. This information is used to simulate an ensemble of plausible synthetic extreme event footprints from which flood depths are extracted from an existing global flood hazard catalogue. Expected economic losses are then estimated by overlaying flood depths with national datasets defining asset locations, characteristics and depth damage functions. The ability of this approach to quantify probabilistic economic risk and rare threshold exceeding events is expected to be of value to those interested in the flood mitigation and insurance sectors.This work describes the methodological steps taken to create the flood loss catalogue over a national scale; highlights the uncertainty in the expected annual economic vulnerability within the USA from extreme river flows; and presents future developments to the modelling approach.

Severe Weather in a Changing Climate: Getting to Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wuebbles, D. J.; Janssen, E.; Kunkel, K.

2011-12-01

Analyses of observation records from U.S. weather stations indicate there is an increasing trend over recent decades in certain types of severe weather, especially large precipitation events. Widespread changes in temperature extremes have been observed over the last 50 years. In particular, the number of heat waves globally (and some parts of the U.S.) has increased, and there have been widespread increases in the numbers of warm nights. Also, analyses show that we are now breaking twice as many heat records as cold records in the U.S. Since 1957, there has been an increase in the number of historically top 1% of heavy precipitation events across the U.S. Our new analyses of the repeat or reoccurrence frequencies of large precipitation storms are showing that such events are occurring more often than in the past. The pattern of precipitation change is one of increases generally at higher northern latitudes and drying in the tropics and subtropics over land. It needs to be recognized that every weather event that happens nowadays takes place in the context of the changes in the background climate system. So nothing is entirely "natural" anymore. It's a fallacy to think that individual events are caused entirely by any one thing, either natural variation or human-induced climate change. Every event is influenced by many factors. Human-induced climate change is now a factor in weather events. The changes occurring in precipitation are consistent with the analyses of our changing climate. For extreme precipitation, we know that more precipitation is falling in very heavy events. And we know key reasons why; warmer air holds more water vapor, and so when any given weather system moves through, the extra water dumps can lead to a heavy downpour. As the climate system continues to warm, models of the Earth's climate system indicate severe precipitation events will likely become more commonplace. Water vapor will continue to increase in the atmosphere along with the warming, and large precipitation events will likely increase in intensity and frequency. In the presentation, we will not only discuss the recent trends in severe weather and the projections of the impacts of climate change on severe weather in the future, but also specific examples of how this information is being used in developing and applying adaptation policies.

Association of Stressful Life Events with Psychological Problems: A Large-Scale Community-Based Study Using Grouped Outcomes Latent Factor Regression with Latent Predictors

PubMed Central

Hassanzadeh, Akbar; Heidari, Zahra; Hassanzadeh Keshteli, Ammar; Afshar, Hamid

2017-01-01

Objective The current study is aimed at investigating the association between stressful life events and psychological problems in a large sample of Iranian adults. Method In a cross-sectional large-scale community-based study, 4763 Iranian adults, living in Isfahan, Iran, were investigated. Grouped outcomes latent factor regression on latent predictors was used for modeling the association of psychological problems (depression, anxiety, and psychological distress), measured by Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) and General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12), as the grouped outcomes, and stressful life events, measured by a self-administered stressful life events (SLEs) questionnaire, as the latent predictors. Results The results showed that the personal stressors domain has significant positive association with psychological distress (β = 0.19), anxiety (β = 0.25), depression (β = 0.15), and their collective profile score (β = 0.20), with greater associations in females (β = 0.28) than in males (β = 0.13) (all P < 0.001). In addition, in the adjusted models, the regression coefficients for the association of social stressors domain and psychological problems profile score were 0.37, 0.35, and 0.46 in total sample, males, and females, respectively (P < 0.001). Conclusion Results of our study indicated that different stressors, particularly those socioeconomic related, have an effective impact on psychological problems. It is important to consider the social and cultural background of a population for managing the stressors as an effective approach for preventing and reducing the destructive burden of psychological problems. PMID:29312459

A giant crater on 90 Antiope?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Descamps, P.; Marchis, F.; Michalowski, T.; Berthier, J.; Pollock, J.; Wiggins, P.; Birlan, M.; Colas, F.; Vachier, F.; Fauvaud, S.; Fauvaud, M.; Sareyan, J.-P.; Pilcher, F.; Klinglesmith, D. A.

2009-09-01

Mutual event observations between the two components of 90 Antiope were carried out in 2007-2008. The pole position was refined to λ0 = 199.5 ± 0.5° and β0 = 39.8 ± 5° in J2000 ecliptic coordinates, leaving intact the physical solution for the components, assimilated to two perfect Roche ellipsoids, and derived after the 2005 mutual event season (Descamps, P., Marchis, F., Michalowski, T., Vachier, F., Colas, F., Berthier, J., Assafin, M., Dunckel, P.B., Polinska, M., Pych, W., Hestroffer, D., Miller, K., Vieira-Martins, R., Birlan, M., Teng-Chuen-Yu, J.-P., Peyrot, A., Payet, B., Dorseuil, J., Léonie, Y., Dijoux, T., 2007. Figure of the double Asteroid 90 Antiope from AO and lightcurves observations. Icarus 187, 482-499). Furthermore, a large-scale geological depression, located on one of the components, was introduced to better match the observed lightcurves. This vast geological feature of about 68 km in diameter, which could be postulated as a bowl-shaped impact crater, is indeed responsible of the photometric asymmetries seen on the "shoulders" of the lightcurves. The bulk density was then recomputed to 1.28 ± 0.04 g cm -3 to take into account this large-scale non-convexity. This giant crater could be the aftermath of a tremendous collision of a 100-km sized proto-Antiope with another Themis family member. This statement is supported by the fact that Antiope is sufficiently porous (˜50%) to survive such an impact without being wholly destroyed. This violent shock would have then imparted enough angular momentum for fissioning of proto-Antiope into two equisized bodies. We calculated that the impactor must have a diameter greater than ˜17 km, for an impact velocity ranging between 1 and 4 km/s. With such a projectile, this event has a substantial 50% probability to have occurred over the age of the Themis family.

Avoided climate impacts of urban and rural heat and cold waves over the U.S. using large climate model ensembles for RCP8.5 and RCP4.5

PubMed Central

Anderson, G.B.; Jones, B.; McGinnis, S.A.; Sanderson, B.

2015-01-01

Previous studies examining future changes in heat/cold waves using climate model ensembles have been limited to grid cell-average quantities. Here, we make use of an urban parameterization in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) that represents the urban heat island effect, which can exacerbate extreme heat but may ameliorate extreme cold in urban relative to rural areas. Heat/cold wave characteristics are derived for U.S. regions from a bias-corrected CESM 30-member ensemble for climate outcomes driven by the RCP8.5 forcing scenario and a 15-member ensemble driven by RCP4.5. Significant differences are found between urban and grid cell-average heat/cold wave characteristics. Most notably, urban heat waves for 1981–2005 are more intense than grid cell-average by 2.1°C (southeast) to 4.6°C (southwest), while cold waves are less intense. We assess the avoided climate impacts of urban heat/cold waves in 2061–2080 when following the lower forcing scenario. Urban heat wave days per year increase from 6 in 1981–2005 to up to 92 (southeast) in RCP8.5. Following RCP4.5 reduces heat wave days by about 50%. Large avoided impacts are demonstrated for individual communities; e.g., the longest heat wave for Houston in RCP4.5 is 38 days while in RCP8.5 there is one heat wave per year that is longer than a month with some lasting the entire summer. Heat waves also start later in the season in RCP4.5 (earliest are in early May) than RCP8.5 (mid-April), compared to 1981–2005 (late May). In some communities, cold wave events decrease from 2 per year for 1981–2005 to one-in-five year events in RCP4.5 and one-in-ten year events in RCP8.5. PMID:29520121