Erosion, sedimentation, and cumulative effects in the Northern Rocky Mountains

Treesearch

Walter F. Megahan; John G. King

2004-01-01

Erosion and sedimentation are natural geomorphic processes characterized by large temporal and spatial variability. Recent radionuclide studies suggest that rare episodic events, such as large wildfires, produce massive sediment yields over time scales of thousands of years, thereby causing long-term average sediment production to exceed present-day average erosion...

Detection and Attribution of Temperature Trends in the Presence of Natural Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wallace, J. M.

2014-12-01

The fingerprint of human-induced global warming stands out clearly above the noise In the time series of global-mean temperature, but not local temperature. At extratropical latitudes over land the standard error of 50-year linear temperature trends at a fixed point is as large as the cumulative rise in global-mean temperature over the past century. Much of the samping variability in local temperature trends is "dynamically-induced", i.e., attributable to the fact that the seasonally-varying mean circulation varies substantially from one year to the next and anomalous circulation patterns are generally accompanied by anomalous temperature patterns. In the presence of such large sampling variability it is virtually impossible to identify the spatial signature of greenhouse warming based on observational data or to partition observed local temperature trends into natural and human-induced components. It follows that previous IPCC assessments, which have focused on the deterministic signature of human-induced climate change, are inherently limited as to what they can tell us about the attribution of the past record of local temperature change or about how much the temperature at a particular place is likely to rise in the next few decades in response to global warming. To obtain more informative assessments of regional and local climate variability and change it will be necessary to take a probabilistic approach. Just as the use of the ensembles has contributed to more informative extended range weather predictions, large ensembles of climate model simulations can provide a statistical context for interpreting observed climate change and for framing projections of future climate. For some purposes, statistics relating to the interannual variability in the historical record can serve as a surrogate for statistics relating to the diversity of climate change scenarios in large ensembles.

Patterns of Spatial Variation of Assemblages Associated with Intertidal Rocky Shores: A Global Perspective

PubMed Central

Cruz-Motta, Juan José; Miloslavich, Patricia; Palomo, Gabriela; Iken, Katrin; Konar, Brenda; Pohle, Gerhard; Trott, Tom; Benedetti-Cecchi, Lisandro; Herrera, César; Hernández, Alejandra; Sardi, Adriana; Bueno, Andrea; Castillo, Julio; Klein, Eduardo; Guerra-Castro, Edlin; Gobin, Judith; Gómez, Diana Isabel; Riosmena-Rodríguez, Rafael; Mead, Angela; Bigatti, Gregorio; Knowlton, Ann; Shirayama, Yoshihisa

2010-01-01

Assemblages associated with intertidal rocky shores were examined for large scale distribution patterns with specific emphasis on identifying latitudinal trends of species richness and taxonomic distinctiveness. Seventy-two sites distributed around the globe were evaluated following the standardized sampling protocol of the Census of Marine Life NaGISA project (www.nagisa.coml.org). There were no clear patterns of standardized estimators of species richness along latitudinal gradients or among Large Marine Ecosystems (LMEs); however, a strong latitudinal gradient in taxonomic composition (i.e., proportion of different taxonomic groups in a given sample) was observed. Environmental variables related to natural influences were strongly related to the distribution patterns of the assemblages on the LME scale, particularly photoperiod, sea surface temperature (SST) and rainfall. In contrast, no environmental variables directly associated with human influences (with the exception of the inorganic pollution index) were related to assemblage patterns among LMEs. Correlations of the natural assemblages with either latitudinal gradients or environmental variables were equally strong suggesting that neither neutral models nor models based solely on environmental variables sufficiently explain spatial variation of these assemblages at a global scale. Despite the data shortcomings in this study (e.g., unbalanced sample distribution), we show the importance of generating biological global databases for the use in large-scale diversity comparisons of rocky intertidal assemblages to stimulate continued sampling and analyses. PMID:21179546

Interactions of artificial lakes with groundwater applying an integrated MODFLOW solution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El-Zehairy, A. A.; Lubczynski, M. W.; Gurwin, J.

2018-02-01

Artificial lakes (reservoirs) are regulated water bodies with large stage fluctuations and different interactions with groundwater compared with natural lakes. A novel modelling study characterizing the dynamics of these interactions is presented for artificial Lake Turawa, Poland. The integrated surface-water/groundwater MODFLOW-NWT transient model, applying SFR7, UZF1 and LAK7 packages to account for variably-saturated flow and temporally variable lake area extent and volume, was calibrated throughout 5 years (1-year warm-up, 4-year simulation), applying daily lake stages, heads and discharges as control variables. The water budget results showed that, in contrast to natural lakes, the reservoir interactions with groundwater were primarily dependent on the balance between lake inflow and regulated outflow, while influences of precipitation and evapotranspiration played secondary roles. Also, the spatio-temporal lakebed-seepage pattern was different compared with natural lakes. The large and fast-changing stages had large influence on lakebed-seepage and water table depth and also influenced groundwater evapotranspiration and groundwater exfiltration, as their maxima coincided not with rainfall peaks but with highest stages. The mean lakebed-seepage ranged from 0.6 mm day-1 during lowest stages (lake-water gain) to 1.0 mm day-1 during highest stages (lake-water loss) with largest losses up to 4.6 mm day-1 in the peripheral zone. The lakebed-seepage of this study was generally low because of low lakebed leakance (0.0007-0.0015 day-1) and prevailing upward regional groundwater flow moderating it. This study discloses the complexity of artificial lake interactions with groundwater, while the proposed front-line modelling methodology can be applied to any reservoir, and also to natural lake interactions with groundwater.

Explaining Spatial Variability in Wellbore Impairment Risk for Pennsylvania Oil and Gas Wells, 2000-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santoro, R.; Ingraffea, A. R.

2015-12-01

Previous modeling (ingraffea et al. PNAS, 2014) indicated roughly two-times higher cumulative risk for wellbore impairment in unconventional wells, relative to conventional wells, and large spatial variation in risk for oil and gas wells drilled in the state of Pennsylvania. Impairment risk for wells in the northeast portion of the state were found to be 8.5-times greater than that of wells drilled in the rest of the state. Here, we set out to explain this apparent regional variability through Boosted Regression Tree (BRT) analysis of geographic, developmental, and general well attributes. We find that regional variability is largely driven by the nature of the development, i.e. whether conventional or unconventional development is dominant. Oil and natural gas market prices and total well depths present as major influences in wellbore impairment, with moderate influences from well densities and geologic factors. The figure depicts influence paths for predictors of impairments for the state (top left), SW region (top right), unconventional/NE region (bottom left) and conventional/NW region (bottom right) models. Influences are scaled to reflect percent contributions in explaining variability in the model.

Quantifying variability in delta experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, K. L.; Berg, S. R.; McElroy, B. J.

2017-12-01

Large populations of people and wildlife make their homes on river deltas, therefore it is important to be able to make useful and accurate predictions of how these landforms will change over time. However, making predictions can be a challenge due to inherent variability of the natural system. Furthermore, when we extrapolate results from the laboratory to the field setting, we bring with it random and systematic errors of the experiment. We seek to understand both the intrinsic and experimental variability of river delta systems to help better inform predictions of how these landforms will evolve. We run exact replicates of experiments with steady sediment and water discharge and record delta evolution with overhead time lapse imaging. We measure aspects of topset progradation and channel dynamics and compare these metrics of delta morphology between the 6 replicated experimental runs. We also use data from all experimental runs collectively to build a large dataset to extract statistics of the system properties. We find that although natural variability exists, the processes in the experiments must have outcomes that no longer depend on their initial conditions after some time. Applying these results to the field scale will aid in our ability to make forecasts of how these landforms will progress.

Does climate variability influence the demography of wild primates? Evidence from long-term life-history data in seven species.

PubMed

Campos, Fernando A; Morris, William F; Alberts, Susan C; Altmann, Jeanne; Brockman, Diane K; Cords, Marina; Pusey, Anne; Stoinski, Tara S; Strier, Karen B; Fedigan, Linda M

2017-11-01

Earth's rapidly changing climate creates a growing need to understand how demographic processes in natural populations are affected by climate variability, particularly among organisms threatened by extinction. Long-term, large-scale, and cross-taxon studies of vital rate variation in relation to climate variability can be particularly valuable because they can reveal environmental drivers that affect multiple species over extensive regions. Few such data exist for animals with slow life histories, particularly in the tropics, where climate variation over large-scale space is asynchronous. As our closest relatives, nonhuman primates are especially valuable as a resource to understand the roles of climate variability and climate change in human evolutionary history. Here, we provide the first comprehensive investigation of vital rate variation in relation to climate variability among wild primates. We ask whether primates are sensitive to global changes that are universal (e.g., higher temperature, large-scale climate oscillations) or whether they are more sensitive to global change effects that are local (e.g., more rain in some places), which would complicate predictions of how primates in general will respond to climate change. To address these questions, we use a database of long-term life-history data for natural populations of seven primate species that have been studied for 29-52 years to investigate associations between vital rate variation, local climate variability, and global climate oscillations. Associations between vital rates and climate variability varied among species and depended on the time windows considered, highlighting the importance of temporal scale in detection of such effects. We found strong climate signals in the fertility rates of three species. However, survival, which has a greater impact on population growth, was little affected by climate variability. Thus, we found evidence for demographic buffering of life histories, but also evidence of mechanisms by which climate change could affect the fates of wild primates. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Role of Arctic Sea Ice in Last Millennium Climate Variability: Model-Proxy Comparisons Using Ensemble Members and Novel Model Experiments.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gertler, C. G.; Monier, E.; Prinn, R. G.

2016-12-01

Variability in sea ice extent is a prominent feature of forced simulations of the last millennium and reconstructions of paleoclimate using proxy records. The rapid 20th century decline in sea ice extent is most likely due to greenhouse gas forcing, but the accuracy of future projections depend on the characterization of natural variability. Declining sea ice extent affects regional climate and society, but also plays a large role in Arctic amplification, with implications for mid-latitude circulation and even large-scale climate oscillations. To characterize the effects of natural and anthropogenic climate forcing on sea ice and the related changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation, a combination of instrumental record, paleoclimate reconstructions, and general circulation models can be employed to recreate sea ice extents and the corresponding atmosphere-ocean states. Model output from the last millennium ensemble (LME) is compared to a proxy-based sea ice reconstruction and a global proxy network using a variety of statistical and data assimilation techniques. Further model runs using the Community Earth Systems Model (CESM) are performed with the same inputs as LME but forced with experimental sea ice extents, and results are contextualized within the larger ensemble by a variety of metrics.

Natural variability of marine ecosystems inferred from a coupled climate to ecosystem simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Mézo, Priscilla; Lefort, Stelly; Séférian, Roland; Aumont, Olivier; Maury, Olivier; Murtugudde, Raghu; Bopp, Laurent

2016-01-01

This modeling study analyzes the simulated natural variability of pelagic ecosystems in the North Atlantic and North Pacific. Our model system includes a global Earth System Model (IPSL-CM5A-LR), the biogeochemical model PISCES and the ecosystem model APECOSM that simulates upper trophic level organisms using a size-based approach and three interactive pelagic communities (epipelagic, migratory and mesopelagic). Analyzing an idealized (e.g., no anthropogenic forcing) 300-yr long pre-industrial simulation, we find that low and high frequency variability is dominant for the large and small organisms, respectively. Our model shows that the size-range exhibiting the largest variability at a given frequency, defined as the resonant range, also depends on the community. At a given frequency, the resonant range of the epipelagic community includes larger organisms than that of the migratory community and similarly, the latter includes larger organisms than the resonant range of the mesopelagic community. This study shows that the simulated temporal variability of marine pelagic organisms' abundance is not only influenced by natural climate fluctuations but also by the structure of the pelagic community. As a consequence, the size- and community-dependent response of marine ecosystems to climate variability could impact the sustainability of fisheries in a warming world.

Genic Variability and Strategies of Adaptation in Animals

PubMed Central

Selander, Robert K.; Kaufman, Donald W.

1973-01-01

Levels of genic heterozygosity, as measured by surveys of allozymic variation, are much lower in populations of large, mobile animals (most vertebrates) than in those of small, relatively immobile animals (most invertebrates). This difference is not consistent with theories relating variability to population size (species number) or dispersal ability (gene flow), but it is predicted by Levins' theory of adaptive strategies in relation to environmental uncertainty (“grain”). Mobility and degree of homeostatic control apparently are important factors influencing levels of genic heterozygosity in natural populations. The results argue indirectly that at least a major proportion of allozymic variation is maintained by natural selection. PMID:4515944

Numerical Simulation of The Mediterranean Sea Using Diecast: Interaction Between Basin, Sub-basin and Local Scale Features and Natural Variability.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernández, V.; Dietrich, D. E.; Haney, R. L.; Tintoré, J.

In situ and satellite data obtained during the last ten years have shown that the circula- tion in the Mediterranean Sea is extremely complex in space, with significant features ranging from mesoscale to sub-basin and basin scale, and highly variable in time, with mesoscale to seasonal and interannual signals. Also, the steep bottom topography and the variable atmospheric conditions from one sub-basin to another, make the circula- tion to be composed of numerous energetic and narrow coastal currents, density fronts and mesoscale structures that interact at sub-basin scale with the large scale circula- tion. To simulate numerically and better understand these features, besides high grid resolution, a low numerical dispersion and low physical dissipation ocean model is required. We present the results from a 1/8z horizontal resolution numerical simula- tion of the Mediterranean Sea using DieCAST ocean model, which meets the above requirements since it is stable with low general dissipation and uses accurate fourth- order-accurate approximations with low numerical dispersion. The simulations are carried out with climatological surface forcing using monthly mean winds and relax- ation towards climatological values of temperature and salinity. The model reproduces the main features of the large basin scale circulation, as well as the seasonal variabil- ity of sub-basin scale currents that are well documented by observations in straits and channels. In addition, DieCAST brings out natural fronts and eddies that usually do not appear in numerical simulations of the Mediterranean and that lead to a natural interannual variability. The role of this intrinsic variability in the general circulation will be discussed.

Instrumental variables estimation of exposure effects on a time-to-event endpoint using structural cumulative survival models.

PubMed

Martinussen, Torben; Vansteelandt, Stijn; Tchetgen Tchetgen, Eric J; Zucker, David M

2017-12-01

The use of instrumental variables for estimating the effect of an exposure on an outcome is popular in econometrics, and increasingly so in epidemiology. This increasing popularity may be attributed to the natural occurrence of instrumental variables in observational studies that incorporate elements of randomization, either by design or by nature (e.g., random inheritance of genes). Instrumental variables estimation of exposure effects is well established for continuous outcomes and to some extent for binary outcomes. It is, however, largely lacking for time-to-event outcomes because of complications due to censoring and survivorship bias. In this article, we make a novel proposal under a class of structural cumulative survival models which parameterize time-varying effects of a point exposure directly on the scale of the survival function; these models are essentially equivalent with a semi-parametric variant of the instrumental variables additive hazards model. We propose a class of recursive instrumental variable estimators for these exposure effects, and derive their large sample properties along with inferential tools. We examine the performance of the proposed method in simulation studies and illustrate it in a Mendelian randomization study to evaluate the effect of diabetes on mortality using data from the Health and Retirement Study. We further use the proposed method to investigate potential benefit from breast cancer screening on subsequent breast cancer mortality based on the HIP-study. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

Can Geostatistical Models Represent Nature's Variability? An Analysis Using Flume Experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheidt, C.; Fernandes, A. M.; Paola, C.; Caers, J.

2015-12-01

The lack of understanding in the Earth's geological and physical processes governing sediment deposition render subsurface modeling subject to large uncertainty. Geostatistics is often used to model uncertainty because of its capability to stochastically generate spatially varying realizations of the subsurface. These methods can generate a range of realizations of a given pattern - but how representative are these of the full natural variability? And how can we identify the minimum set of images that represent this natural variability? Here we use this minimum set to define the geostatistical prior model: a set of training images that represent the range of patterns generated by autogenic variability in the sedimentary environment under study. The proper definition of the prior model is essential in capturing the variability of the depositional patterns. This work starts with a set of overhead images from an experimental basin that showed ongoing autogenic variability. We use the images to analyze the essential characteristics of this suite of patterns. In particular, our goal is to define a prior model (a minimal set of selected training images) such that geostatistical algorithms, when applied to this set, can reproduce the full measured variability. A necessary prerequisite is to define a measure of variability. In this study, we measure variability using a dissimilarity distance between the images. The distance indicates whether two snapshots contain similar depositional patterns. To reproduce the variability in the images, we apply an MPS algorithm to the set of selected snapshots of the sedimentary basin that serve as training images. The training images are chosen from among the initial set by using the distance measure to ensure that only dissimilar images are chosen. Preliminary investigations show that MPS can reproduce fairly accurately the natural variability of the experimental depositional system. Furthermore, the selected training images provide process information. They fall into three basic patterns: a channelized end member, a sheet flow end member, and one intermediate case. These represent the continuum between autogenic bypass or erosion, and net deposition.

Arctic sea ice trends, variability and implications for seasonal ice forecasting

PubMed Central

Serreze, Mark C.; Stroeve, Julienne

2015-01-01

September Arctic sea ice extent over the period of satellite observations has a strong downward trend, accompanied by pronounced interannual variability with a detrended 1 year lag autocorrelation of essentially zero. We argue that through a combination of thinning and associated processes related to a warming climate (a stronger albedo feedback, a longer melt season, the lack of especially cold winters) the downward trend itself is steepening. The lack of autocorrelation manifests both the inherent large variability in summer atmospheric circulation patterns and that oceanic heat loss in winter acts as a negative (stabilizing) feedback, albeit insufficient to counter the steepening trend. These findings have implications for seasonal ice forecasting. In particular, while advances in observing sea ice thickness and assimilating thickness into coupled forecast systems have improved forecast skill, there remains an inherent limit to predictability owing to the largely chaotic nature of atmospheric variability. PMID:26032315

New Perspectives on the Role of Internal Variability in Regional Climate Change and Climate Model Evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deser, C.

2017-12-01

Natural climate variability occurs over a wide range of time and space scales as a result of processes intrinsic to the atmosphere, the ocean, and their coupled interactions. Such internally generated climate fluctuations pose significant challenges for the identification of externally forced climate signals such as those driven by volcanic eruptions or anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases. This challenge is exacerbated for regional climate responses evaluated from short (< 50 years) data records. The limited duration of the observations also places strong constraints on how well the spatial and temporal characteristics of natural climate variability are known, especially on multi-decadal time scales. The observational constraints, in turn, pose challenges for evaluation of climate models, including their representation of internal variability and assessing the accuracy of their responses to natural and anthropogenic radiative forcings. A promising new approach to climate model assessment is the advent of large (10-100 member) "initial-condition" ensembles of climate change simulations with individual models. Such ensembles allow for accurate determination, and straightforward separation, of externally forced climate signals and internal climate variability on regional scales. The range of climate trajectories in a given model ensemble results from the fact that each simulation represents a particular sequence of internal variability superimposed upon a common forced response. This makes clear that nature's single realization is only one of many that could have unfolded. This perspective leads to a rethinking of approaches to climate model evaluation that incorporate observational uncertainty due to limited sampling of internal variability. Illustrative examples across a range of well-known climate phenomena including ENSO, volcanic eruptions, and anthropogenic climate change will be discussed.

European Wintertime Windstorms and its Links to Large-Scale Variability Modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Befort, D. J.; Wild, S.; Walz, M. A.; Knight, J. R.; Lockwood, J. F.; Thornton, H. E.; Hermanson, L.; Bett, P.; Weisheimer, A.; Leckebusch, G. C.

2017-12-01

Winter storms associated with extreme wind speeds and heavy precipitation are the most costly natural hazard in several European countries. Improved understanding and seasonal forecast skill of winter storms will thus help society, policy-makers and (re-) insurance industry to be better prepared for such events. We firstly assess the ability to represent extra-tropical windstorms over the Northern Hemisphere of three seasonal forecast ensemble suites: ECMWF System3, ECMWF System4 and GloSea5. Our results show significant skill for inter-annual variability of windstorm frequency over parts of Europe in two of these forecast suites (ECMWF-S4 and GloSea5) indicating the potential use of current seasonal forecast systems. In a regression model we further derive windstorm variability using the forecasted NAO from the seasonal model suites thus estimating the suitability of the NAO as the only predictor. We find that the NAO as the main large-scale mode over Europe can explain some of the achieved skill and is therefore an important source of variability in the seasonal models. However, our results show that the regression model fails to reproduce the skill level of the directly forecast windstorm frequency over large areas of central Europe. This suggests that the seasonal models also capture other sources of variability/predictability of windstorms than the NAO. In order to investigate which other large-scale variability modes steer the interannual variability of windstorms we develop a statistical model using a Poisson GLM. We find that the Scandinavian Pattern (SCA) in fact explains a larger amount of variability for Central Europe during the 20th century than the NAO. This statistical model is able to skilfully reproduce the interannual variability of windstorm frequency especially for the British Isles and Central Europe with correlations up to 0.8.

Compounding nonlinearities in the climate and wildfire system contribute to high uncertainty in estimates of future burned area in the western United State

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, P.

2015-12-01

Ecological studies are increasingly recognizing the importance of atmospheric vapor-pressure deficit (VPD) as a driver of forest drought stress and disturbance processes such as wildfire. Because of the nonlinear Clausius-Clapeyron relationship between temperature and saturation vapor pressure, small variations in temperature can have large impacts on VPD, and therefore drought, particularly in warm, dry areas and particularly during the warm season. It is also clear that VPD and drought affect forest fire nonlinearly, as incremental drying leads to increasingly large burned areas. Forest fire is also affected by fuel amount and connectivity, which are promoted by vegetation growth in previous years, which is in turn promoted by lack of drought, highlighting the importance of nuances in the sequencing of natural interannual climate variations in modulating the impacts of drought on wildfire. The many factors affecting forest fire, and the nonlinearities embedded within the climate and wildfire systems, cause interannual variability in forest-fire area and frequency to be wildly variable and strongly affected by internal climate variability. In addition, warming over the past century has produced a background increase in forest fire frequency and area in many regions. In this talk I focus on the western United States and will explore whether the relationships between internal climate variability on forest fire area have been amplified by the effects of warming as a result of the compounding nonlinearities described above. I will then explore what this means for future burned area in the western United States and make the case that uncertainties in the future global greenhouse gas emissions trajectory, model projections of mean temperatures, model projections of precipitation, and model projections of natural climate variability translate to very large uncertainties in the effects of future climate variability on forest fire area in the United States and globally.

The role of CO2 variability and exposure time for biological impacts of ocean acidification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shaw, Emily C.; Munday, Philip L.; McNeil, Ben I.

2013-09-01

impacts of ocean acidification have mostly been studied using future levels of CO2 without consideration of natural variability or how this modulates both duration and magnitude of CO2 exposure. Here we combine results from laboratory studies on coral reef fish with diurnal in situ CO2 data from a shallow coral reef, to demonstrate how natural variability alters exposure times for marine organisms under increasingly high-CO2 conditions. Large in situ CO2 variability already results in exposure of coral reef fish to short-term CO2 levels higher than laboratory-derived critical CO2 levels (~600 µatm). However, we suggest that the in situ exposure time is presently insufficient to induce negative effects observed in laboratory studies. Our results suggest that both exposure time and the magnitude of CO2 levels will be important in determining the response of organisms to future ocean acidification, where both will increase markedly with future increases in CO2.

Developmental adaptations to gravity in animals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hargens, Alan R.

1991-01-01

Terrestrial animals have adapted to a constant gravitational stress over millions of years. Tissues of the cardiovascular system and lumbar spine in tall species of animals such as the giraffe are particularly well adapted to high and variable vectors of gravitational force. Swelling of the leg tissues in the giraffe is prevented by a variety of physiological mechanisms including (1) a natural 'antigravity suit', (2) impermeable capillaries, (3) arterial-wall hypertrophy, (4) variable blood pressures during normal activity, and (5) a large-capacity lymphatic system. These adaptations, as well as a natural hypertension, maintain blood perfusion to the giraffe's brain. The intervertebral disk is another tissue that is uniquely adapted to gravitational stress. Tall and large terrestrial animals have higher swelling pressures than their smaller or aquatic counterparts. Finally, the meniscus of the rabbit knee provides information on the effects of aging and load-bearing on cartilaginous tissues. Such tissues within the joints of animals are important for load-bearing on Earth; these connective tissues may degenerate during long-duration space flight.

A large-scale investigation of microplastic contamination: Abundance and characteristics of microplastics in European beach sediment.

PubMed

Lots, Froukje A E; Behrens, Paul; Vijver, Martina G; Horton, Alice A; Bosker, Thijs

2017-10-15

Here we present the large-scale distribution of microplastic contamination in beach sediment across Europe. Sediment samples were collected from 23 locations across 13 countries by citizen scientists, and analysed using a standard operating procedure. We found significant variability in the concentrations of microplastics, ranging from 72±24 to 1512±187 microplastics per kg of dry sediment, with high variability within sampling locations. Three hotspots of microplastic accumulation (>700 microplastics per kg of dry sediment) were found. There was limited variability in the physico-chemical characteristics of the plastics across sampling locations. The majority of the microplastics were fibrous, <1mm in size, and blue/black in colour. In addition, using Raman spectrometry we identified particles as polyester, polyethylene, and polypropylene. Our research is the first large spatial-scale analysis of microplastics on European beaches giving insights into the nature and extent of the microplastic challenge. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Flood events across the North Atlantic region - past development and future perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matti, Bettina; Dieppois, Bastien; Lawler, Damian; Dahlke, Helen E.; Lyon, Steve W.

2016-04-01

Flood events have a large impact on humans, both socially and economically. An increase in winter and spring flooding across much of northern Europe in recent years opened up the question of changing underlying hydro-climatic drivers of flood events. Predicting the manifestation of such changes is difficult due to the natural variability and fluctuations in northern hydrological systems caused by large-scale atmospheric circulations, especially under altered climate conditions. Improving knowledge on the complexity of these hydrological systems and their interactions with climate is essential to be able to determine drivers of flood events and to predict changes in these drivers under altered climate conditions. This is particularly true for the North Atlantic region where both physical catchment properties and large-scale atmospheric circulations have a profound influence on floods. This study explores changes in streamflow across North Atlantic region catchments. An emphasis is placed on high-flow events, namely the timing and magnitude of past flood events, and selected flood percentiles were tested for stationarity by applying a flood frequency analysis. The issue of non-stationarity of flood return periods is important when linking streamflow to large-scale atmospheric circulations. Natural fluctuations in these circulations are found to have a strong influence on the outcome causing natural variability in streamflow records. Long time series and a multi-temporal approach allows for determining drivers of floods and linking streamflow to large-scale atmospheric circulations. Exploring changes in selected hydrological signatures consistency was found across much of the North Atlantic region suggesting a shift in flow regime. The lack of an overall regional pattern suggests that how catchments respond to changes in climatic drivers is strongly influenced by their physical characteristics. A better understanding of hydrological response to climate drivers is essential for example for forecasting purposes.

Anonymous broadcasting of classical information with a continuous-variable topological quantum code

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menicucci, Nicolas C.; Baragiola, Ben Q.; Demarie, Tommaso F.; Brennen, Gavin K.

2018-03-01

Broadcasting information anonymously becomes more difficult as surveillance technology improves, but remarkably, quantum protocols exist that enable provably traceless broadcasting. The difficulty is making scalable entangled resource states that are robust to errors. We propose an anonymous broadcasting protocol that uses a continuous-variable surface-code state that can be produced using current technology. High squeezing enables large transmission bandwidth and strong anonymity, and the topological nature of the state enables local error mitigation.

Attribution of Observed Streamflow Changes in Key British Columbia Drainage Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Najafi, Mohammad Reza; Zwiers, Francis W.; Gillett, Nathan P.

2017-11-01

We study the observed decline in summer streamflow in four key river basins in British Columbia (BC), Canada, using a formal detection and attribution (D&A) analysis procedure. Reconstructed and simulated streamflow is generated using the semidistributed variable infiltration capacity hydrologic model, which is driven by 1/16° gridded observations and downscaled climate model data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), respectively. The internal variability of the regional hydrologic components using 5100 years of streamflow was simulated using CMIP5 preindustrial control runs. Results show that the observed changes in summer streamflow are inconsistent with simulations representing the responses to natural forcing factors alone, while the response to anthropogenic and natural forcing factors combined is detected in these changes. A two-signal D&A analysis indicates that the effects of anthropogenic (ANT) forcing factors are discernable from natural forcing in BC, albeit with large uncertainties.

A simplified model to evaluate the effect of fluid rheology on non-Newtonian flow in variable aperture fractures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Felisa, Giada; Ciriello, Valentina; Longo, Sandro; Di Federico, Vittorio

2017-04-01

Modeling of non-Newtonian flow in fractured media is essential in hydraulic fracturing operations, largely used for optimal exploitation of oil, gas and thermal reservoirs. Complex fluids interact with pre-existing rock fractures also during drilling operations, enhanced oil recovery, environmental remediation, and other natural phenomena such as magma and sand intrusions, and mud volcanoes. A first step in the modeling effort is a detailed understanding of flow in a single fracture, as the fracture aperture is typically spatially variable. A large bibliography exists on Newtonian flow in single, variable aperture fractures. Ultimately, stochastic modeling of aperture variability at the single fracture scale leads to determination of the flowrate under a given pressure gradient as a function of the parameters describing the variability of the aperture field and the fluid rheological behaviour. From the flowrate, a flow, or 'hydraulic', aperture can then be derived. The equivalent flow aperture for non-Newtonian fluids of power-law nature in single, variable aperture fractures has been obtained in the past both for deterministic and stochastic variations. Detailed numerical modeling of power-law fluid flow in a variable aperture fracture demonstrated that pronounced channelization effects are associated to a nonlinear fluid rheology. The availability of an equivalent flow aperture as a function of the parameters describing the fluid rheology and the aperture variability is enticing, as it allows taking their interaction into account when modeling flow in fracture networks at a larger scale. A relevant issue in non-Newtonian fracture flow is the rheological nature of the fluid. The constitutive model routinely used for hydro-fracturing modeling is the simple, two-parameter power-law. Yet this model does not characterize real fluids at low and high shear rates, as it implies, for shear-thinning fluids, an apparent viscosity which becomes unbounded for zero shear rate and tends to zero for infinite shear rate. On the contrary, the four-parameter Carreau constitutive equation includes asymptotic values of the apparent viscosity at those limits; in turn, the Carreau rheological equation is well approximated by the more tractable truncated power-law model. Results for flow of such fluids between parallel walls are already available. This study extends the adoption of the truncated power-law model to variable aperture fractures, with the aim of understanding the joint influence of rheology and aperture spatial variability. The aperture variation, modeled within a stochastic or deterministic framework, is taken to be one-dimensional and perpendicular to the flow direction; for stochastic modeling, the influence of different distribution functions is examined. Results are then compared with those obtained for pure power-law fluids for different combinations of model parameters. It is seen that the adoption of the pure power law model leads to significant overestimation of the flowrate with respect to the truncated model, more so for large external pressure gradient and/or aperture variability.

Temporal variability and memory in sediment transport in an experimental step-pool channel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saletti, Matteo; Molnar, Peter; Zimmermann, André; Hassan, Marwan A.; Church, Michael

2015-11-01

Temporal dynamics of sediment transport in steep channels using two experiments performed in a steep flume (8%) with natural sediment composed of 12 grain sizes are studied. High-resolution (1 s) time series of sediment transport were measured for individual grain-size classes at the outlet of the flume for different combinations of sediment input rates and flow discharges. Our aim in this paper is to quantify (a) the relation of discharge and sediment transport and (b) the nature and strength of memory in grain-size-dependent transport. None of the simple statistical descriptors of sediment transport (mean, extreme values, and quantiles) display a clear relation with water discharge, in fact a large variability between discharge and sediment transport is observed. Instantaneous transport rates have probability density functions with heavy tails. Bed load bursts have a coarser grain-size distribution than that of the entire experiment. We quantify the strength and nature of memory in sediment transport rates by estimating the Hurst exponent and the autocorrelation coefficient of the time series for different grain sizes. Our results show the presence of the Hurst phenomenon in transport rates, indicating long-term memory which is grain-size dependent. The short-term memory in coarse grain transport increases with temporal aggregation and this reveals the importance of the sampling duration of bed load transport rates in natural streams, especially for large fractions.

Space-time dependence between energy sources and climate related energy production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engeland, Kolbjorn; Borga, Marco; Creutin, Jean-Dominique; Ramos, Maria-Helena; Tøfte, Lena; Warland, Geir

2014-05-01

The European Renewable Energy Directive adopted in 2009 focuses on achieving a 20% share of renewable energy in the EU overall energy mix by 2020. A major part of renewable energy production is related to climate, called "climate related energy" (CRE) production. CRE production systems (wind, solar, and hydropower) are characterized by a large degree of intermittency and variability on both short and long time scales due to the natural variability of climate variables. The main strategies to handle the variability of CRE production include energy-storage, -transport, -diversity and -information (smart grids). The three first strategies aim to smooth out the intermittency and variability of CRE production in time and space whereas the last strategy aims to provide a more optimal interaction between energy production and demand, i.e. to smooth out the residual load (the difference between demand and production). In order to increase the CRE share in the electricity system, it is essential to understand the space-time co-variability between the weather variables and CRE production under both current and future climates. This study presents a review of the literature that searches to tackle these problems. It reveals that the majority of studies deals with either a single CRE source or with the combination of two CREs, mostly wind and solar. This may be due to the fact that the most advanced countries in terms of wind equipment have also very little hydropower potential (Denmark, Ireland or UK, for instance). Hydropower is characterized by both a large storage capacity and flexibility in electricity production, and has therefore a large potential for both balancing and storing energy from wind- and solar-power. Several studies look at how to better connect regions with large share of hydropower (e.g., Scandinavia and the Alps) to regions with high shares of wind- and solar-power (e.g., green battery North-Sea net). Considering time scales, various studies consider wind and solar power production and their co-fluctuation at small time scales. The multi-scale nature of the variability is less studied, i.e., the potential adverse or favorable co-fluctuation at intermediate time scales involving water scarcity or abundance, is less present in the literature.Our review points out that it could be especially interesting to promote research on how the pronounced large-scale fluctuations in inflow to hydropower (intra-annual run-off) and smaller scale fluctuations in wind- and solar-power interact in an energy system. There is a need to better represent the profound difference between wind-, solar- and hydro-energy sources. On the one hand, they are all directly linked to the 2-D horizontal dynamics of meteorology. On the other hand, the branching structure of hydrological systems transforms this variability and governs the complex combination of natural inflows and reservoir storage.Finally, we note that the CRE production is, in addition to weather, also influenced by the energy system and market, i.e., the energy transport and demand across scales as well as changes of market regulation. The CRE production system lies thus in this nexus between climate, energy systems and market regulations. The work presented is part of the FP7 project COMPLEX (Knowledge based climate mitigation systems for a low carbon economy; http://www.complex.ac.uk)

Is Ground Cover Vegetation an Effective Biological Control Enhancement Strategy against Olive Pests?

PubMed Central

Paredes, Daniel; Cayuela, Luis; Gurr, Geoff M.; Campos, Mercedes

2015-01-01

Ground cover vegetation is often added or allowed to generate to promote conservation biological control, especially in perennial crops. Nevertheless, there is inconsistent evidence of its effectiveness, with studies reporting positive, nil or negative effects on pest control. This might arise from differences between studies at the local scale (e.g. orchard management and land use history), the landscape context (e.g. presence of patches of natural or semi-natural vegetation near the focal orchard), or regional factors, particularly climate in the year of the study. Here we present the findings from a long-term regional monitoring program conducted on four pest species (Bactrocera oleae, Prays oleae, Euphyllura olivina, Saissetia oleae) in 2,528 olive groves in Andalusia (Spain) from 2006 to 2012. Generalized linear mixed effect models were used to analyze the effect of ground cover on different response variables related to pest abundance, while accounting for variability at the local, landscape and regional scales. There were small and inconsistent effects of ground cover on the abundance of pests whilst local, landscape and regional variability explained a large proportion of the variability in pest response variables. This highlights the importance of local and landscape-related variables in biological control and the potential effects that might emerge from their interaction with practices, such as groundcover vegetation, implemented to promote natural enemy activity. The study points to perennial vegetation close to the focal crop as a promising alternative strategy for conservation biological control that should receive more attention. PMID:25646778

Large-Scale Circulation and Climate Variability. Chapter 5

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perlwitz, J.; Knutson, T.; Kossin, J. P.; LeGrande, A. N.

2017-01-01

The causes of regional climate trends cannot be understood without considering the impact of variations in large-scale atmospheric circulation and an assessment of the role of internally generated climate variability. There are contributions to regional climate trends from changes in large-scale latitudinal circulation, which is generally organized into three cells in each hemisphere-Hadley cell, Ferrell cell and Polar cell-and which determines the location of subtropical dry zones and midlatitude jet streams. These circulation cells are expected to shift poleward during warmer periods, which could result in poleward shifts in precipitation patterns, affecting natural ecosystems, agriculture, and water resources. In addition, regional climate can be strongly affected by non-local responses to recurring patterns (or modes) of variability of the atmospheric circulation or the coupled atmosphere-ocean system. These modes of variability represent preferred spatial patterns and their temporal variation. They account for gross features in variance and for teleconnections which describe climate links between geographically separated regions. Modes of variability are often described as a product of a spatial climate pattern and an associated climate index time series that are identified based on statistical methods like Principal Component Analysis (PC analysis), which is also called Empirical Orthogonal Function Analysis (EOF analysis), and cluster analysis.

Arctic sea ice trends, variability and implications for seasonal ice forecasting.

PubMed

Serreze, Mark C; Stroeve, Julienne

2015-07-13

September Arctic sea ice extent over the period of satellite observations has a strong downward trend, accompanied by pronounced interannual variability with a detrended 1 year lag autocorrelation of essentially zero. We argue that through a combination of thinning and associated processes related to a warming climate (a stronger albedo feedback, a longer melt season, the lack of especially cold winters) the downward trend itself is steepening. The lack of autocorrelation manifests both the inherent large variability in summer atmospheric circulation patterns and that oceanic heat loss in winter acts as a negative (stabilizing) feedback, albeit insufficient to counter the steepening trend. These findings have implications for seasonal ice forecasting. In particular, while advances in observing sea ice thickness and assimilating thickness into coupled forecast systems have improved forecast skill, there remains an inherent limit to predictability owing to the largely chaotic nature of atmospheric variability. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Fast Solution in Sparse LDA for Binary Classification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moghaddam, Baback

2010-01-01

An algorithm that performs sparse linear discriminant analysis (Sparse-LDA) finds near-optimal solutions in far less time than the prior art when specialized to binary classification (of 2 classes). Sparse-LDA is a type of feature- or variable- selection problem with numerous applications in statistics, machine learning, computer vision, computational finance, operations research, and bio-informatics. Because of its combinatorial nature, feature- or variable-selection problems are NP-hard or computationally intractable in cases involving more than 30 variables or features. Therefore, one typically seeks approximate solutions by means of greedy search algorithms. The prior Sparse-LDA algorithm was a greedy algorithm that considered the best variable or feature to add/ delete to/ from its subsets in order to maximally discriminate between multiple classes of data. The present algorithm is designed for the special but prevalent case of 2-class or binary classification (e.g. 1 vs. 0, functioning vs. malfunctioning, or change versus no change). The present algorithm provides near-optimal solutions on large real-world datasets having hundreds or even thousands of variables or features (e.g. selecting the fewest wavelength bands in a hyperspectral sensor to do terrain classification) and does so in typical computation times of minutes as compared to days or weeks as taken by the prior art. Sparse LDA requires solving generalized eigenvalue problems for a large number of variable subsets (represented by the submatrices of the input within-class and between-class covariance matrices). In the general (fullrank) case, the amount of computation scales at least cubically with the number of variables and thus the size of the problems that can be solved is limited accordingly. However, in binary classification, the principal eigenvalues can be found using a special analytic formula, without resorting to costly iterative techniques. The present algorithm exploits this analytic form along with the inherent sequential nature of greedy search itself. Together this enables the use of highly-efficient partitioned-matrix-inverse techniques that result in large speedups of computation in both the forward-selection and backward-elimination stages of greedy algorithms in general.

Camp Unit Design Guidelines.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hultsman, John T.; Cottrell, Richard L.

This document provides a set of generalized guidelines for the design of units in large family campgrounds. Managers of recreational lands have two responsibilities and goals: to protect the natural resources, and to provide an enjoyable experience for users. With these goals in mind, unique variables to each unit such as shade, site aesthetics,…

Variability of eye movements when viewing dynamic natural scenes.

PubMed

Dorr, Michael; Martinetz, Thomas; Gegenfurtner, Karl R; Barth, Erhardt

2010-08-26

How similar are the eye movement patterns of different subjects when free viewing dynamic natural scenes? We collected a large database of eye movements from 54 subjects on 18 high-resolution videos of outdoor scenes and measured their variability using the Normalized Scanpath Saliency, which we extended to the temporal domain. Even though up to about 80% of subjects looked at the same image region in some video parts, variability usually was much greater. Eye movements on natural movies were then compared with eye movements in several control conditions. "Stop-motion" movies had almost identical semantic content as the original videos but lacked continuous motion. Hollywood action movie trailers were used to probe the upper limit of eye movement coherence that can be achieved by deliberate camera work, scene cuts, etc. In a "repetitive" condition, subjects viewed the same movies ten times each over the course of 2 days. Results show several systematic differences between conditions both for general eye movement parameters such as saccade amplitude and fixation duration and for eye movement variability. Most importantly, eye movements on static images are initially driven by stimulus onset effects and later, more so than on continuous videos, by subject-specific idiosyncrasies; eye movements on Hollywood movies are significantly more coherent than those on natural movies. We conclude that the stimuli types often used in laboratory experiments, static images and professionally cut material, are not very representative of natural viewing behavior. All stimuli and gaze data are publicly available at http://www.inb.uni-luebeck.de/tools-demos/gaze.

Does internal climate variability overwhelm climate change signals in streamflow? The upper Po and Rhone basin case studies.

PubMed

Fatichi, S; Rimkus, S; Burlando, P; Bordoy, R

2014-09-15

Projections of climate change effects in streamflow are increasingly required to plan water management strategies. These projections are however largely uncertain due to the spread among climate model realizations, internal climate variability, and difficulties in transferring climate model results at the spatial and temporal scales required by catchment hydrology. A combination of a stochastic downscaling methodology and distributed hydrological modeling was used in the ACQWA project to provide projections of future streamflow (up to year 2050) for the upper Po and Rhone basins, respectively located in northern Italy and south-western Switzerland. Results suggest that internal (stochastic) climate variability is a fundamental source of uncertainty, typically comparable or larger than the projected climate change signal. Therefore, climate change effects in streamflow mean, frequency, and seasonality can be masked by natural climatic fluctuations in large parts of the analyzed regions. An exception to the overwhelming role of stochastic variability is represented by high elevation catchments fed by glaciers where streamflow is expected to be considerably reduced due to glacier retreat, with consequences appreciable in the main downstream rivers in August and September. Simulations also identify regions (west upper Rhone and Toce, Ticino river basins) where a strong precipitation increase in the February to April period projects streamflow beyond the range of natural climate variability during the melting season. This study emphasizes the importance of including internal climate variability in climate change analyses, especially when compared to the limited uncertainty that would be accounted for by few deterministic projections. The presented results could be useful in guiding more specific impact studies, although design or management decisions should be better based on reliability and vulnerability criteria as suggested by recent literature. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Plague and Climate: Scales Matter

PubMed Central

Ben Ari, Tamara; Neerinckx, Simon; Gage, Kenneth L.; Kreppel, Katharina; Laudisoit, Anne; Leirs, Herwig; Stenseth, Nils Chr.

2011-01-01

Plague is enzootic in wildlife populations of small mammals in central and eastern Asia, Africa, South and North America, and has been recognized recently as a reemerging threat to humans. Its causative agent Yersinia pestis relies on wild rodent hosts and flea vectors for its maintenance in nature. Climate influences all three components (i.e., bacteria, vectors, and hosts) of the plague system and is a likely factor to explain some of plague's variability from small and regional to large scales. Here, we review effects of climate variables on plague hosts and vectors from individual or population scales to studies on the whole plague system at a large scale. Upscaled versions of small-scale processes are often invoked to explain plague variability in time and space at larger scales, presumably because similar scale-independent mechanisms underlie these relationships. This linearity assumption is discussed in the light of recent research that suggests some of its limitations. PMID:21949648

Societal Impacts of Natural Decadal Climate Variability - The Pacemakers of Civilizations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mehta, V. M.

2017-12-01

Natural decadal climate variability (DCV) is one of the oldest areas of climate research. Building on centuries-long literature, a substantial body of research has emerged in the last two to three decades, focused on understanding causes, mechanisms, and impacts of DCV. Several DCV phenomena - the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) or the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperature gradient variability (TAG for brevity), West Pacific Warm Pool variability, and decadal variability of El Niño-La Niña events - have been identified in observational records; and are associated with variability of worldwide atmospheric circulations, water vapor transport, precipitation, and temperatures; and oceanic circulations, salinity, and temperatures. Tree-ring based drought index data going back more than 700 years show presence of decadal hydrologic cycles (DHCs) in North America, Europe, and South Asia. Some of these cycles were associated with the rise and fall of civilizations, large-scale famines which killed millions of people, and acted as catalysts for socio-political revolutions. Instrument-measured data confirm presence of such worldwide DHCs associated with DCV phenomena; and show these DCV phenomena's worldwide impacts on river flows, crop productions, inland water-borne transportation, hydro-electricity generation, and agricultural irrigation. Fish catch data also show multiyear to decadal catch variability associated with these DCV phenomena in all oceans. This talk, drawn from my recently-published book (Mehta, V.M., 2017: Natural Decadal Climate Variability: Societal Impacts. CRC Press, Boca Raton, Florida, 326 pp.), will give an overview of worldwide impacts of DCV phenomena, with specific examples of socio-economic-political impacts. This talk will also describe national and international security implications of such societal impacts, and worldwide food security implications. The talk will end with an outline of needed actions to adapt to these impacts.

Potential Impact of North Atlantic Climate Variability on Ocean Biogeochemical Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y.; Muhling, B.; Lee, S. K.; Muller-Karger, F. E.; Enfield, D. B.; Lamkin, J. T.; Roffer, M. A.

2016-02-01

Previous studies have shown that upper ocean circulations largely determine primary production in the euphotic layers, here the global ocean model with biogeochemistry (GFDL's Modular Ocean Model with TOPAZ biogeochemistry) forced with the ERA-Interim is used to simulate the natural variability of biogeochemical processes in global ocean during 1979-present. Preliminary results show that the surface chlorophyll is overall underestimated in MOM-TOPAZ, but its spatial pattern is fairly realistic. Relatively high chlorophyll variability is shown in the subpolar North Atlantic, northeastern tropical Atlantic, and equatorial Atlantic. Further analysis suggests that the chlorophyll variability in the North Atlantic Ocean is affected by long-term climate variability. For the subpolar North Atlantic region, the chlorophyll variability is light-limited and is significantly correlated with North Atlantic Oscillation. A dipole pattern of chlorophyll variability is found between the northeastern tropical Atlantic and equatorial Atlantic. For the northeastern North Atlantic, the chlorophyll variability is significantly correlated with Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). During the negative phase of AMM and AMO, the increased trade wind in the northeast North Atlantic can lead to increased upwelling of nutrients. In the equatorial Atlantic region, the chlorophyll variability is largely link to Atlantic-Niño and associated equatorial upwelling of nutrients. The potential impact of climate variability on the distribution of pelagic fishes (i.e. yellowfin tuna) are discussed.

Tracking contaminants down the Mississippi

USGS Publications Warehouse

Swarzenski, P.; Campbell, P.

2004-01-01

The Mississippi River and its last major downstream distributary, the Atchafalaya River, provide approximately 90 percent of the freshwater input to the Gulf of Mexico. Analyses of sediment cores using organic and inorganic tracers as well as bethic foraminifera appear to provide a reliable record of the historic variability of hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico over the past few centuries. Natural variability in hypoxic events may be driven largely by flooding cycles of El Nin??o/La Nin??a prior to recent increases in nutrient loading. Specifically, large floods in 1979, 1983, 1993 and 1998, compounded with the widespread use of fertilizers, also appear at least partially responsible for the recent (post-1980) dramatic increase of hypoxic events in the Mississippi Bight.

Hubby and Lewontin on Protein Variation in Natural Populations: When Molecular Genetics Came to the Rescue of Population Genetics.

PubMed

Charlesworth, Brian; Charlesworth, Deborah; Coyne, Jerry A; Langley, Charles H

2016-08-01

The 1966 GENETICS papers by John Hubby and Richard Lewontin were a landmark in the study of genome-wide levels of variability. They used the technique of gel electrophoresis of enzymes and proteins to study variation in natural populations of Drosophila pseudoobscura, at a set of loci that had been chosen purely for technical convenience, without prior knowledge of their levels of variability. Together with the independent study of human populations by Harry Harris, this seminal study provided the first relatively unbiased picture of the extent of genetic variability in protein sequences within populations, revealing that many genes had surprisingly high levels of diversity. These papers stimulated a large research program that found similarly high electrophoretic variability in many different species and led to statistical tools for interpreting the data in terms of population genetics processes such as genetic drift, balancing and purifying selection, and the effects of selection on linked variants. The current use of whole-genome sequences in studies of variation is the direct descendant of this pioneering work. Copyright © 2016 by the Genetics Society of America.

Decomposition and model selection for large contingency tables.

PubMed

Dahinden, Corinne; Kalisch, Markus; Bühlmann, Peter

2010-04-01

Large contingency tables summarizing categorical variables arise in many areas. One example is in biology, where large numbers of biomarkers are cross-tabulated according to their discrete expression level. Interactions of the variables are of great interest and are generally studied with log-linear models. The structure of a log-linear model can be visually represented by a graph from which the conditional independence structure can then be easily read off. However, since the number of parameters in a saturated model grows exponentially in the number of variables, this generally comes with a heavy computational burden. Even if we restrict ourselves to models of lower-order interactions or other sparse structures, we are faced with the problem of a large number of cells which play the role of sample size. This is in sharp contrast to high-dimensional regression or classification procedures because, in addition to a high-dimensional parameter, we also have to deal with the analogue of a huge sample size. Furthermore, high-dimensional tables naturally feature a large number of sampling zeros which often leads to the nonexistence of the maximum likelihood estimate. We therefore present a decomposition approach, where we first divide the problem into several lower-dimensional problems and then combine these to form a global solution. Our methodology is computationally feasible for log-linear interaction models with many categorical variables each or some of them having many levels. We demonstrate the proposed method on simulated data and apply it to a bio-medical problem in cancer research.

Characterizing Sub-Daily Flow Regimes: Implications of Hydrologic Resolution on Ecohydrology Studies

DOE PAGES

Bevelhimer, Mark S.; McManamay, Ryan A.; O'Connor, B.

2014-05-26

Natural variability in flow is a primary factor controlling geomorphic and ecological processes in riverine ecosystems. Within the hydropower industry, there is growing pressure from environmental groups and natural resource managers to change reservoir releases from daily peaking to run-of-river operations on the basis of the assumption that downstream biological communities will improve under a more natural flow regime. In this paper, we discuss the importance of assessing sub-daily flows for understanding the physical and ecological dynamics within river systems. We present a variety of metrics for characterizing sub-daily flow variation and use these metrics to evaluate general trends amongmore » streams affected by peaking hydroelectric projects, run-of-river projects and streams that are largely unaffected by flow altering activities. Univariate and multivariate techniques were used to assess similarity among different stream types on the basis of these sub-daily metrics. For comparison, similar analyses were performed using analogous metrics calculated with mean daily flow values. Our results confirm that sub-daily flow metrics reveal variation among and within streams that are not captured by daily flow statistics. Using sub-daily flow statistics, we were able to quantify the degree of difference between unaltered and peaking streams and the amount of similarity between unaltered and run-of-river streams. The sub-daily statistics were largely uncorrelated with daily statistics of similar scope. Furthermore, on short temporal scales, sub-daily statistics reveal the relatively constant nature of unaltered streamreaches and the highly variable nature of hydropower-affected streams, whereas daily statistics show just the opposite over longer temporal scales.« less

Exploring ammonium tolerance in a large panel of Arabidopsis thaliana natural accessions

PubMed Central

Sarasketa, Asier; González-Moro, María Begoña; González-Murua, Carmen; Marino, Daniel

2014-01-01

Plants are dependent on exogenous nitrogen (N) supply. Ammonium (NH4 +), together with nitrate (NO3 –), is one of the main nitrogenous compounds available in the soil. Paradoxically, although NH4 + assimilation requires less energy than that of NO3 –, many plants display toxicity symptoms when grown with NH4 + as the sole N source. However, in addition to species-specific ammonium toxicity, intraspecific variability has also been shown. Thus, the aim of this work was to study the intraspecific ammonium tolerance in a large panel of Arabidopsis thaliana natural accessions. Plants were grown with either 1mM NO3 – or NH4 + as the N source, and several parameters related to ammonium tolerance and assimilation were determined. Overall, high variability was observed in A. thaliana shoot growth under both forms of N nutrition. From the parameters determined, tissue ammonium content was the one with the highest impact on shoot biomass, and interestingly this was also the case when N was supplied as NO3 –. Enzymes of nitrogen assimilation did not have an impact on A. thaliana biomass variation, but the N source affected their activity. Glutamate dehydrogenase (GDH) aminating activity was, in general, higher in NH4 +-fed plants. In contrast, GDH deaminating activity was higher in NO3 –-fed plants, suggesting a differential role for this enzyme as a function of the N form supplied. Overall, NH4 + accumulation seems to be an important player in Arabidopsis natural variability in ammonium tolerance rather than the cell NH4 + assimilation capacity. PMID:25205573

LARGE-SCALE NATURAL GRADIENT TRACER TEST IN SAND AND GRAVEL, CAPE CODE, MASSACHUSETTS 3. HYDRAULIC CONDUCTI- VITY AND CALCULATED MACRODISPERSIVITIES

EPA Science Inventory

Hydraulic conductivity (K) variability in a sand and gravel aquifer on Cape Cod, Massachusetts, was measured and subsequently used in stochastic transport theories to estimate macrodispersivities. Nearly 1500 K measurements were obtained by borehole flowmeter tests ...

Ocean angular momentum signals in a climate model and implications for Earth rotation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ponte, R. M.; Rajamony, J.; Gregory, J. M.

2002-03-01

Estimates of ocean angular momentum (OAM) provide an integrated measure of variability in ocean circulation and mass fields and can be directly related to observed changes in Earth rotation. We use output from a climate model to calculate 240 years of 3-monthly OAM values (two equatorial terms L1 and L2, related to polar motion or wobble, and axial term L3, related to length of day variations) representing the period 1860-2100. Control and forced runs permit the study of the effects of natural and anthropogenically forced climate variability on OAM. All OAM components exhibit a clear annual cycle, with large decadal modulations in amplitude, and also longer period fluctuations, all associated with natural climate variability in the model. Anthropogenically induced signals, inferred from the differences between forced and control runs, include an upward trend in L3, related to inhomogeneous ocean warming and increases in the transport of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, and a significantly weaker seasonal cycle in L2 in the second half of the record, related primarily to changes in seasonal bottom pressure variability in the Southern Ocean and North Pacific. Variability in mass fields is in general more important to OAM signals than changes in circulation at the seasonal and longer periods analyzed. Relation of OAM signals to changes in surface atmospheric forcing are discussed. The important role of the oceans as an excitation source for the annual, Chandler and Markowitz wobbles, is confirmed. Natural climate variability in OAM and related excitation is likely to measurably affect the Earth rotation, but anthropogenically induced effects are comparatively weak.

Decline of the world's saline lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wurtsbaugh, Wayne A.; Miller, Craig; Null, Sarah E.; Derose, R. Justin; Wilcock, Peter; Hahnenberger, Maura; Howe, Frank; Moore, Johnnie

2017-11-01

Many of the world's saline lakes are shrinking at alarming rates, reducing waterbird habitat and economic benefits while threatening human health. Saline lakes are long-term basin-wide integrators of climatic conditions that shrink and grow with natural climatic variation. In contrast, water withdrawals for human use exert a sustained reduction in lake inflows and levels. Quantifying the relative contributions of natural variability and human impacts to lake inflows is needed to preserve these lakes. With a credible water balance, causes of lake decline from water diversions or climate variability can be identified and the inflow needed to maintain lake health can be defined. Without a water balance, natural variability can be an excuse for inaction. Here we describe the decline of several of the world's large saline lakes and use a water balance for Great Salt Lake (USA) to demonstrate that consumptive water use rather than long-term climate change has greatly reduced its size. The inflow needed to maintain bird habitat, support lake-related industries and prevent dust storms that threaten human health and agriculture can be identified and provides the information to evaluate the difficult tradeoffs between direct benefits of consumptive water use and ecosystem services provided by saline lakes.

Asymmetric patch size distribution leads to disruptive selection on dispersal.

PubMed

Massol, François; Duputié, Anne; David, Patrice; Jarne, Philippe

2011-02-01

Numerous models have been designed to understand how dispersal ability evolves when organisms live in a fragmented landscape. Most of them predict a single dispersal rate at evolutionary equilibrium, and when diversification of dispersal rates has been predicted, it occurs as a response to perturbation or environmental fluctuation regimes. Yet abundant variation in dispersal ability is observed in natural populations and communities, even in relatively stable environments. We show that this diversification can operate in a simple island model without temporal variability: disruptive selection on dispersal occurs when the environment consists of many small and few large patches, a common feature in natural spatial systems. This heterogeneity in patch size results in a high variability in the number of related patch mates by individual, which, in turn, triggers disruptive selection through a high per capita variance of inclusive fitness. Our study provides a likely, parsimonious and testable explanation for the diversity of dispersal rates encountered in nature. It also suggests that biological conservation policies aiming at preserving ecological communities should strive to keep the distribution of patch size sufficiently asymmetric and variable. © 2010 The Author(s). Evolution© 2010 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Uncertainties in Past and Future Global Water Availability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheffield, J.; Kam, J.

2014-12-01

Understanding how water availability changes on inter-annual to decadal time scales and how it may change in the future under climate change are a key part of understanding future stresses on water and food security. Historic evaluations of water availability on regional to global scales are generally based on large-scale model simulations with their associated uncertainties, in particular for long-term changes. Uncertainties are due to model errors and missing processes, parameter uncertainty, and errors in meteorological forcing data. Recent multi-model inter-comparisons and impact studies have highlighted large differences for past reconstructions, due to different simplifying assumptions in the models or the inclusion of physical processes such as CO2 fertilization. Modeling of direct anthropogenic factors such as water and land management also carry large uncertainties in their physical representation and from lack of socio-economic data. Furthermore, there is little understanding of the impact of uncertainties in the meteorological forcings that underpin these historic simulations. Similarly, future changes in water availability are highly uncertain due to climate model diversity, natural variability and scenario uncertainty, each of which dominates at different time scales. In particular, natural climate variability is expected to dominate any externally forced signal over the next several decades. We present results from multi-land surface model simulations of the historic global availability of water in the context of natural variability (droughts) and long-term changes (drying). The simulations take into account the impact of uncertainties in the meteorological forcings and the incorporation of water management in the form of reservoirs and irrigation. The results indicate that model uncertainty is important for short-term drought events, and forcing uncertainty is particularly important for long-term changes, especially uncertainty in precipitation due to reduced gauge density in recent years. We also discuss uncertainties in future projections from these models as driven by bias-corrected and downscaled CMIP5 climate projections, in the context of the balance between climate model robustness and climate model diversity.

Climatology and natural variability of the global hydrologic cycle in the GLA atmospheric general circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, K.-M.; Mehta, V. M.; Sud, Y. C.; Walker, G. K.

1994-01-01

Time average climatology and low-frequency variabilities of the global hydrologic cycle (GHC) in the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres (GLA) general circulation model (GCM) were investigated in the present work. A 730-day experiment was conducted with the GLA GCM forced by insolation, sea surface temperature, and ice-snow undergoing climatological annual cycles. Ifluences of interactive soil moisture on time average climatology and natural variability of the GHC were also investigated by conducting 365-day experiments with and without interactive soil moisture. Insolation, sea surface temperature, and ice-snow were fixed at their July levels in the latter two experiments. Results show that the model's time average hydrologic cycle variables for July in all three experiments agree reasonably well with observations. Except in the case of precipitable water, the zonal average climates of the annual cycle experiment and the two perpetual July experiments are alike, i.e., their differences are within limits of the natural variability of the model's climate. Statistics of various components of the GHC, i.e., water vapor, evaporation, and precipitation, are significantly affected by the presence of interactive soil moisture. A long-term trend is found in the principal empirical modes of variability of ground wetness, evaporation, and sensible heat. Dominant modes of variability of these quantities over land are physically consistent with one another and with land surface energy balance requirements. The dominant mode of precipitation variability is found to be closely related to organized convection over the tropical western Pacific Ocean. The precipitation variability has timescales in the range of 2 to 3 months and can be identified with the stationary component of the Madden-Julian Oscillation. The precipitation mode is not sensitive to the presence of interactive soil moisture but is closely linked to both the rotational and divergent components of atmospheric moisture transport. The present results indicate that globally coherent natural variability of the GHC in the GLA GCM has two basic timescales in the absence of annual cycles of external forcings: a long-term trend associated with atmosphere-soil moisture interaction which affects the model atmosphere mostly over midlatitude continental regions and a large-scale 2- to 3-month variability associated with atmospheric moist processes over the western Pacific Ocean.

Characterizing the chaotic nature of ocean ventilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacGilchrist, Graeme A.; Marshall, David P.; Johnson, Helen L.; Lique, Camille; Thomas, Matthew

2017-09-01

Ventilation of the upper ocean plays an important role in climate variability on interannual to decadal timescales by influencing the exchange of heat and carbon dioxide between the atmosphere and ocean. The turbulent nature of ocean circulation, manifest in a vigorous mesoscale eddy field, means that pathways of ventilation, once thought to be quasi-laminar, are in fact highly chaotic. We characterize the chaotic nature of ventilation pathways according to a nondimensional "filamentation number," which estimates the reduction in filament width of a ventilated fluid parcel due to mesoscale strain. In the subtropical North Atlantic of an eddy-permitting ocean model, the filamentation number is large everywhere across three upper ocean density surfaces—implying highly chaotic ventilation pathways—and increases with depth. By mapping surface ocean properties onto these density surfaces, we directly resolve the highly filamented structure and confirm that the filamentation number captures its spatial variability. These results have implications for the spreading of atmospherically-derived tracers into the ocean interior.

Using altimetry to help explain patchy changes in hydrographic carbon measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodgers, Keith B.; Key, Robert M.; Gnanadesikan, Anand; Sarmiento, Jorge L.; Aumont, Olivier; Bopp, Laurent; Doney, Scott C.; Dunne, John P.; Glover, David M.; Ishida, Akio; Ishii, Masao; Jacobson, Andrew R.; Lo Monaco, Claire; Maier-Reimer, Ernst; Mercier, Herlé; Metzl, Nicolas; PéRez, Fiz F.; Rios, Aida F.; Wanninkhof, Rik; Wetzel, Patrick; Winn, Christopher D.; Yamanaka, Yasuhiro

2009-09-01

Here we use observations and ocean models to identify mechanisms driving large seasonal to interannual variations in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and dissolved oxygen (O2) in the upper ocean. We begin with observations linking variations in upper ocean DIC and O2 inventories with changes in the physical state of the ocean. Models are subsequently used to address the extent to which the relationships derived from short-timescale (6 months to 2 years) repeat measurements are representative of variations over larger spatial and temporal scales. The main new result is that convergence and divergence (column stretching) attributed to baroclinic Rossby waves can make a first-order contribution to DIC and O2 variability in the upper ocean. This results in a close correspondence between natural variations in DIC and O2 column inventory variations and sea surface height (SSH) variations over much of the ocean. Oceanic Rossby wave activity is an intrinsic part of the natural variability in the climate system and is elevated even in the absence of significant interannual variability in climate mode indices. The close correspondence between SSH and both DIC and O2 column inventories for many regions suggests that SSH changes (inferred from satellite altimetry) may prove useful in reducing uncertainty in separating natural and anthropogenic DIC signals (using measurements from Climate Variability and Predictability's CO2/Repeat Hydrography program).

Variable Selection through Correlation Sifting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Jim C.; Jojic, Nebojsa

Many applications of computational biology require a variable selection procedure to sift through a large number of input variables and select some smaller number that influence a target variable of interest. For example, in virology, only some small number of viral protein fragments influence the nature of the immune response during viral infection. Due to the large number of variables to be considered, a brute-force search for the subset of variables is in general intractable. To approximate this, methods based on ℓ1-regularized linear regression have been proposed and have been found to be particularly successful. It is well understood however that such methods fail to choose the correct subset of variables if these are highly correlated with other "decoy" variables. We present a method for sifting through sets of highly correlated variables which leads to higher accuracy in selecting the correct variables. The main innovation is a filtering step that reduces correlations among variables to be selected, making the ℓ1-regularization effective for datasets on which many methods for variable selection fail. The filtering step changes both the values of the predictor variables and output values by projections onto components obtained through a computationally-inexpensive principal components analysis. In this paper we demonstrate the usefulness of our method on synthetic datasets and on novel applications in virology. These include HIV viral load analysis based on patients' HIV sequences and immune types, as well as the analysis of seasonal variation in influenza death rates based on the regions of the influenza genome that undergo diversifying selection in the previous season.

Exploring the Amount and Type of Writing Instruction during Language Arts Instruction in Kindergarten Classrooms

PubMed Central

Puranik, Cynthia S.; Al Otaiba, Stephanie; Sidler, Jessica Folsom; Greulich, Luana

2014-01-01

The objective of this exploratory investigation was to examine the nature of writing instruction in kindergarten classrooms and to describe student writing outcomes at the end of the school year. Participants for this study included 21 teachers and 238 kindergarten children from nine schools. Classroom teachers were videotaped once each in the fall and winter during the 90 minute instructional block for reading and language arts to examine time allocation and the types of writing instructional practices taking place in the kindergarten classrooms. Classroom observation of writing was divided into student-practice variables (activities in which students were observed practicing writing or writing independently) and teacher-instruction variables (activities in which the teacher was observed providing direct writing instruction). In addition, participants completed handwriting fluency, spelling, and writing tasks. Large variability was observed in the amount of writing instruction occurring in the classroom, the amount of time kindergarten teachers spent on writing and in the amount of time students spent writing. Marked variability was also observed in classroom practices both within and across schools and this fact was reflected in the large variability noted in kindergartners’ writing performance. PMID:24578591

Exploring the Amount and Type of Writing Instruction during Language Arts Instruction in Kindergarten Classrooms.

PubMed

Puranik, Cynthia S; Al Otaiba, Stephanie; Sidler, Jessica Folsom; Greulich, Luana

2014-02-01

The objective of this exploratory investigation was to examine the nature of writing instruction in kindergarten classrooms and to describe student writing outcomes at the end of the school year. Participants for this study included 21 teachers and 238 kindergarten children from nine schools. Classroom teachers were videotaped once each in the fall and winter during the 90 minute instructional block for reading and language arts to examine time allocation and the types of writing instructional practices taking place in the kindergarten classrooms. Classroom observation of writing was divided into student-practice variables (activities in which students were observed practicing writing or writing independently) and teacher-instruction variables (activities in which the teacher was observed providing direct writing instruction). In addition, participants completed handwriting fluency, spelling, and writing tasks. Large variability was observed in the amount of writing instruction occurring in the classroom, the amount of time kindergarten teachers spent on writing and in the amount of time students spent writing. Marked variability was also observed in classroom practices both within and across schools and this fact was reflected in the large variability noted in kindergartners' writing performance.

Enhancement of juvenile Caribbean spiny lobsters: an evaluation of changes in multiple response variables with the addition of large artificial shelters.

PubMed

Briones-Fourzán, Patricia; Lozano-Alvarez, Enrique; Negrete-Soto, Fernando; Barradas-Ortiz, Cecilia

2007-03-01

Shortage of natural crevice shelters may produce population bottlenecks in juvenile Caribbean spiny lobsters (Panulirus argus), a socially gregarious species. We conducted a field experiment to test enhancement of a local population of juvenile P. argus with the addition of artificial shelters ("casitas") that mimic large crevices (1.1 m(2) in surface area and 3.8 cm in height). Changes in density and biomass of juvenile lobsters 15-50 mm carapace length (CL) were assessed with a multiple before-after control-impact (MBACI) analysis. Separate analyses were also conducted on small (15-35 mm CL) and large (35.1-50 mm CL) juveniles to assess size-related effects. First, we carried out 13 lobster surveys on nine fixed 1-ha sites over a shallow reef lagoon ("before" period). Then, we deployed ten casitas in each of five sites and left four sites as controls, and conducted 22 further surveys ("after" period). Deployment of casitas resulted in a sixfold increase in juvenile density (76% contributed by small and 24% by large juveniles) and a sevenfold increase in biomass (40 and 60%, respectively). Capture-recapture results revealed that enhancement was achieved not by promoting individual growth but by increasing survival, persistence, and foraging ranges of small and large juveniles. Casitas both mitigated shortage of natural shelter and increased sociality, allowing for cohabitation of smaller, more vulnerable juveniles with larger conspecifics that have greater defensive abilities. Casitas may help enhance local populations of juvenile P. argus in Caribbean seagrass habitats, typically poor in natural crevice shelters. The use of MBACI and the simultaneous assessment of multiple interrelated response variables may be a powerful analytical approach to test shelter limitation in other species and to examine the function of structural habitat in other systems.

The nature of instructional effects in color constancy.

PubMed

Radonjić, Ana; Brainard, David H

2016-06-01

The instructions subjects receive can have a large effect on experimentally measured color constancy, but the nature of these effects and how their existence should inform our understanding of color perception remains unclear. We used a factorial design to measure how instructional effects on constancy vary with experimental task and stimulus set. In each of 2 experiments, we employed both a classic adjustment-based asymmetric matching task and a novel color selection task. Four groups of naive subjects were instructed to make adjustments/selections based on (a) color (neutral instructions); (b) the light reaching the eye (physical spectrum instructions); (c) the actual surface reflectance of an object (objective reflectance instructions); or (d) the apparent surface reflectance of an object (apparent reflectance instructions). Across the 2 experiments we varied the naturalness of the stimuli. We find clear interactions between instructions, task, and stimuli. With simplified stimuli (Experiment 1), instructional effects were large and the data revealed 2 instruction-dependent patterns. In 1 (neutral and physical spectrum instructions) constancy was low, intersubject variability was also low, and adjustment-based and selection-based constancy were in agreement. In the other (reflectance instructions) constancy was high, intersubject variability was large, adjustment-based constancy deviated from selection-based constancy and for some subjects selection-based constancy increased across sessions. Similar patterns held for naturalistic stimuli (Experiment 2), although instructional effects were smaller. We interpret these 2 patterns as signatures of distinct task strategies-1 is perceptual, with judgments based primarily on the perceptual representation of color; the other involves explicit instruction-driven reasoning. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Adult volunteerism in Pennsylvania 4-H natural resources programs for youth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Sanford Sherrick

2001-07-01

Pennsylvania's 4-H Youth Development Program relies on adult volunteers to reach youth with educational information and opportunities. Finding adults willing to do this volunteer work is challenging. This study looks at the current status of adult volunteerism with natural resources 4-H projects, and seeks to understand potential volunteers. The literature has much to offer in regards to general volunteer trends, management, motivations, and task preferences; however, few studies focus on volunteers in natural resources or environmental education. A telephone survey conducted with county 4-H agents revealed that only 3.2% of Pennsylvania's 4-H volunteers work with natural resources projects in 56 out of 67 counties, and that very few volunteers have any formal background in natural resources. Semi-structured interviews with 41 adult volunteers currently working with natural resources projects explored volunteer demographics, history, program design preferences, and ideas for seeking more volunteers. Findings from the telephone survey and the semi-structured interviews were used to generate a mail survey with large, random samples from three population groups: (1) 4-H Volunteers, (2) 4-H Parents, and (3) Natural Resources Professionals. Confidence with youth and subject matter, and adult willingness to volunteer was explored for each of the groups in relation to background, demographic characteristics, motivational needs, past and present volunteer activity, personal interests, and program design importance. Natural resources subject matter confidence was shown to be the most significant variable determining willingness to volunteer for all three groups. The variables that contributed to subject matter and youth confidence varied for each population. Key variables effecting willingness to volunteer included outdoor activity level, personal interest in natural resources, the need to fulfill feelings of social responsibility, and confidence with youth. Program design features were shown to have little impact on willingness among the populations. Normative descriptions of individuals most likely to volunteer from each group were generated. Findings will be useful for targeted recruitment, volunteer job placement, and expanded natural resources programming for youth.

Human and natural influences on the changing thermal structure of the atmosphere

PubMed Central

Santer, Benjamin D.; Painter, Jeffrey F.; Bonfils, Céline; Mears, Carl A.; Solomon, Susan; Wigley, Tom M. L.; Gleckler, Peter J.; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Doutriaux, Charles; Gillett, Nathan P.; Taylor, Karl E.; Thorne, Peter W.; Wentz, Frank J.

2013-01-01

Since the late 1970s, satellite-based instruments have monitored global changes in atmospheric temperature. These measurements reveal multidecadal tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling, punctuated by short-term volcanic signals of reverse sign. Similar long- and short-term temperature signals occur in model simulations driven by human-caused changes in atmospheric composition and natural variations in volcanic aerosols. Most previous comparisons of modeled and observed atmospheric temperature changes have used results from individual models and individual observational records. In contrast, we rely on a large multimodel archive and multiple observational datasets. We show that a human-caused latitude/altitude pattern of atmospheric temperature change can be identified with high statistical confidence in satellite data. Results are robust to current uncertainties in models and observations. Virtually all previous research in this area has attempted to discriminate an anthropogenic signal from internal variability. Here, we present evidence that a human-caused signal can also be identified relative to the larger “total” natural variability arising from sources internal to the climate system, solar irradiance changes, and volcanic forcing. Consistent signal identification occurs because both internal and total natural variability (as simulated by state-of-the-art models) cannot produce sustained global-scale tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling. Our results provide clear evidence for a discernible human influence on the thermal structure of the atmosphere. PMID:24043789

Explaining spatial variability in stream habitats using both natural and management-influenced landscape predictors

Treesearch

K.J. Anlauf; D.W. Jensen; K.M. Burnett; E.A. Steel; K. Christiansen; J.C. Firman; B.E. Feist; D.P. Larsen

2011-01-01

1. The distribution and composition of in-stream habitats are reflections of landscape scale geomorphic and climatic controls. Correspondingly, Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) are largely adapted to and constrained by the quality and complexity of those in-stream habitat conditions. The degree to which lands have been fragmented and managed can...

Pre-fire treatments have persistent effects on post-fire plant communities

Treesearch

Kristen L. Shive

2012-01-01

Wildfires characterized by large areas of high severity are increasingly occurring in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa P. & C. Lawson) forests of the Southwest to extents that are out of the natural range of variability. Managers are now routinely applying thinning and/or burning treatments to reduce fire severity. To investigate the effects of pre-fire treatments...

On the sources of vegetation activity variation, and their relation with water balance in Mexico

Treesearch

F. Mora; L.R. Iverson

1998-01-01

Natural landscape surface processes are largely controlled by the relationship between climate and vegetation. Water balance integrates the effects of climate on patterns of vegetation distribution and productivity, and for that season, functional relationships can be established using water balance variables as predictors of vegetation response. In this study, we...

Genetic Variability Under the Seedbank Coalescent.

PubMed

Blath, Jochen; González Casanova, Adrián; Eldon, Bjarki; Kurt, Noemi; Wilke-Berenguer, Maite

2015-07-01

We analyze patterns of genetic variability of populations in the presence of a large seedbank with the help of a new coalescent structure called the seedbank coalescent. This ancestral process appears naturally as a scaling limit of the genealogy of large populations that sustain seedbanks, if the seedbank size and individual dormancy times are of the same order as those of the active population. Mutations appear as Poisson processes on the active lineages and potentially at reduced rate also on the dormant lineages. The presence of "dormant" lineages leads to qualitatively altered times to the most recent common ancestor and nonclassical patterns of genetic diversity. To illustrate this we provide a Wright-Fisher model with a seedbank component and mutation, motivated from recent models of microbial dormancy, whose genealogy can be described by the seedbank coalescent. Based on our coalescent model, we derive recursions for the expectation and variance of the time to most recent common ancestor, number of segregating sites, pairwise differences, and singletons. Estimates (obtained by simulations) of the distributions of commonly employed distance statistics, in the presence and absence of a seedbank, are compared. The effect of a seedbank on the expected site-frequency spectrum is also investigated using simulations. Our results indicate that the presence of a large seedbank considerably alters the distribution of some distance statistics, as well as the site-frequency spectrum. Thus, one should be able to detect from genetic data the presence of a large seedbank in natural populations. Copyright © 2015 by the Genetics Society of America.

Genetic Variability Under the Seedbank Coalescent

PubMed Central

Blath, Jochen; González Casanova, Adrián; Eldon, Bjarki; Kurt, Noemi; Wilke-Berenguer, Maite

2015-01-01

We analyze patterns of genetic variability of populations in the presence of a large seedbank with the help of a new coalescent structure called the seedbank coalescent. This ancestral process appears naturally as a scaling limit of the genealogy of large populations that sustain seedbanks, if the seedbank size and individual dormancy times are of the same order as those of the active population. Mutations appear as Poisson processes on the active lineages and potentially at reduced rate also on the dormant lineages. The presence of “dormant” lineages leads to qualitatively altered times to the most recent common ancestor and nonclassical patterns of genetic diversity. To illustrate this we provide a Wright–Fisher model with a seedbank component and mutation, motivated from recent models of microbial dormancy, whose genealogy can be described by the seedbank coalescent. Based on our coalescent model, we derive recursions for the expectation and variance of the time to most recent common ancestor, number of segregating sites, pairwise differences, and singletons. Estimates (obtained by simulations) of the distributions of commonly employed distance statistics, in the presence and absence of a seedbank, are compared. The effect of a seedbank on the expected site-frequency spectrum is also investigated using simulations. Our results indicate that the presence of a large seedbank considerably alters the distribution of some distance statistics, as well as the site-frequency spectrum. Thus, one should be able to detect from genetic data the presence of a large seedbank in natural populations. PMID:25953769

Predicting the biological condition of streams: Use of geospatial indicators of natural and anthropogenic characteristics of watersheds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carlisle, D.M.; Falcone, J.; Meador, M.R.

2009-01-01

We developed and evaluated empirical models to predict biological condition of wadeable streams in a large portion of the eastern USA, with the ultimate goal of prediction for unsampled basins. Previous work had classified (i.e., altered vs. unaltered) the biological condition of 920 streams based on a biological assessment of macroinvertebrate assemblages. Predictor variables were limited to widely available geospatial data, which included land cover, topography, climate, soils, societal infrastructure, and potential hydrologic modification. We compared the accuracy of predictions of biological condition class based on models with continuous and binary responses. We also evaluated the relative importance of specific groups and individual predictor variables, as well as the relationships between the most important predictors and biological condition. Prediction accuracy and the relative importance of predictor variables were different for two subregions for which models were created. Predictive accuracy in the highlands region improved by including predictors that represented both natural and human activities. Riparian land cover and road-stream intersections were the most important predictors. In contrast, predictive accuracy in the lowlands region was best for models limited to predictors representing natural factors, including basin topography and soil properties. Partial dependence plots revealed complex and nonlinear relationships between specific predictors and the probability of biological alteration. We demonstrate a potential application of the model by predicting biological condition in 552 unsampled basins across an ecoregion in southeastern Wisconsin (USA). Estimates of the likelihood of biological condition of unsampled streams could be a valuable tool for screening large numbers of basins to focus targeted monitoring of potentially unaltered or altered stream segments. ?? Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2008.

Long-term distribution and habitat changes of protected wildlife: giant pandas in Wolong Nature Reserve, China.

PubMed

Bai, Wenke; Connor, Thomas; Zhang, Jindong; Yang, Hongbo; Dong, Xin; Gu, Xiaodong; Zhou, Caiquan

2018-04-01

Changes in wildlife habitat across space and time, and corresponding changes in wildlife space use, are increasingly common phenomenon. It is critical to study and understand these spatio-temporal changes to accurately inform conservation strategy and manage wildlife populations. These changes can be particularly large and complex in areas that face pressure from human development and disturbance but are also under protection and/or restoration regimes. We analyzed changes in space use and habitat suitability of giant pandas in Wolong Nature Reserve, China, over three decades using kernel density, spatio-temporal analysis of moving polygons (STAMP), and MaxEnt methods, and data from three national censuses. Between 2001 and 2012, there was a slight retraction in total range, and more area of significant space use decreases than increases. Habitat suitability varied spatially and temporally, with a 4.1% decrease in average suitability between 1987 and 2001 and a 3.5% increase in average suitability in between 2001 and 2012. Elevation and bamboo were the most important habitat predictors across the three censuses. Human and natural disturbance variables such as distance to household and the distance to landslide variable in the 4th census were also important predictors, and likely also negatively influenced important habitat variables such as bamboo and forest cover. We were able to measure changes in space utilization and habitat suitability over a large time scale, highlighting the achievements and challenges of giant panda conservation. Long-term monitoring of the changes in distribution and habitat of threatened species, and an analysis of the drivers behind these changes such as undergone here, are important to inform the management and conservation of the world's remaining wildlife populations.

Methodological framework for heart rate variability analysis during exercise: application to running and cycling stress testing.

PubMed

Hernando, David; Hernando, Alberto; Casajús, Jose A; Laguna, Pablo; Garatachea, Nuria; Bailón, Raquel

2018-05-01

Standard methodologies of heart rate variability analysis and physiological interpretation as a marker of autonomic nervous system condition have been largely published at rest, but not so much during exercise. A methodological framework for heart rate variability (HRV) analysis during exercise is proposed, which deals with the non-stationary nature of HRV during exercise, includes respiratory information, and identifies and corrects spectral components related to cardiolocomotor coupling (CC). This is applied to 23 male subjects who underwent different tests: maximal and submaximal, running and cycling; where the ECG, respiratory frequency and oxygen consumption were simultaneously recorded. High-frequency (HF) power results largely modified from estimations with the standard fixed band to those obtained with the proposed methodology. For medium and high levels of exercise and recovery, HF power results in a 20 to 40% increase. When cycling, HF power increases around 40% with respect to running, while CC power is around 20% stronger in running.

Comparison of the theoretical and real-world evolutionary potential of a genetic circuit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Razo-Mejia, M.; Boedicker, J. Q.; Jones, D.; DeLuna, A.; Kinney, J. B.; Phillips, R.

2014-04-01

With the development of next-generation sequencing technologies, many large scale experimental efforts aim to map genotypic variability among individuals. This natural variability in populations fuels many fundamental biological processes, ranging from evolutionary adaptation and speciation to the spread of genetic diseases and drug resistance. An interesting and important component of this variability is present within the regulatory regions of genes. As these regions evolve, accumulated mutations lead to modulation of gene expression, which may have consequences for the phenotype. A simple model system where the link between genetic variability, gene regulation and function can be studied in detail is missing. In this article we develop a model to explore how the sequence of the wild-type lac promoter dictates the fold-change in gene expression. The model combines single-base pair resolution maps of transcription factor and RNA polymerase binding energies with a comprehensive thermodynamic model of gene regulation. The model was validated by predicting and then measuring the variability of lac operon regulation in a collection of natural isolates. We then implement the model to analyze the sensitivity of the promoter sequence to the regulatory output, and predict the potential for regulation to evolve due to point mutations in the promoter region.

Deconstructed transverse mass variables

DOE PAGES

Ismail, Ahmed; Schwienhorst, Reinhard; Virzi, Joseph S.; ...

2015-04-02

Traditional searches for R-parity conserving natural supersymmetry (SUSY) require large transverse mass and missing energy cuts to separate the signal from large backgrounds. SUSY models with compressed spectra inherently produce signal events with small amounts of missing energy that are hard to explore. We use this difficulty to motivate the construction of "deconstructed" transverse mass variables which are designed preserve information on both the norm and direction of the missing momentum. Here, we demonstrate the effectiveness of these variables in searches for the pair production of supersymmetric top-quark partners which subsequently decay into a final state with an isolated lepton,more » jets and missing energy. We show that the use of deconstructed transverse mass variables extends the accessible compressed spectra parameter space beyond the region probed by traditional methods. The parameter space can further be expanded to neutralino masses that are larger than the difference between the stop and top masses. In addition, we also discuss how these variables allow for novel searches of single stop production, in order to directly probe unconstrained stealth stops in the small stop-and neutralino-mass regime. We also demonstrate the utility of these variables for generic gluino and stop searches in all-hadronic final states. Overall, we demonstrate that deconstructed transverse variables are essential to any search wanting to maximize signal separation from the background when the signal has undetected particles in the final state.« less

Water availability as a driver of spatial and temporal variability in vegetation in the La Mancha plain (Spain): Implications for the land-surface energy, water and carbon budget

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Los, Sietse

2017-04-01

Vegetation is water limited in large areas of Spain and therefore a close link exists between vegetation greenness observed from satellite and moisture availability. Here we exploit this link to infer spatial and temporal variability in moisture from MODIS NDVI data and thermal data. Discrepancies in the precipitation - vegetation relationship indicate areas with an alternative supply of water (i.e. not rainfall), this can be natural where moisture is supplied by upwelling groundwater, or can be artificial where crops are irrigated. As a result spatial and temporal variability in vegetation in the La Mancha Plain appears closely linked to topography, geology, rainfall and land use. Crop land shows large variability in year-to-year vegetation greenness; for some areas this variability is linked to variability in rainfall but in other cases this variability is linked to irrigation. The differences in irrigation treatment within one plant functional type, in this case crops, will lead to errors in land surface models when ignored. The magnitude of these effects on the energy, carbon and water balance are assessed at the scale of 250 m to 200 km. Estimating the water balance correctly is of particular important since in some areas in Spain more water is used for irrigation than is supplemented by rainfall.

Natural sequence variants of yeast environmental sensors confer cell-to-cell expression variability

PubMed Central

Fehrmann, Steffen; Bottin-Duplus, Hélène; Leonidou, Andri; Mollereau, Esther; Barthelaix, Audrey; Wei, Wu; Steinmetz, Lars M; Yvert, Gaël

2013-01-01

Living systems may have evolved probabilistic bet hedging strategies that generate cell-to-cell phenotypic diversity in anticipation of environmental catastrophes, as opposed to adaptation via a deterministic response to environmental changes. Evolution of bet hedging assumes that genotypes segregating in natural populations modulate the level of intraclonal diversity, which so far has largely remained hypothetical. Using a fluorescent Pmet17-GFP reporter, we mapped four genetic loci conferring to a wild yeast strain an elevated cell-to-cell variability in the expression of MET17, a gene regulated by the methionine pathway. A frameshift mutation in the Erc1p transmembrane transporter, probably resulting from a release of laboratory strains from negative selection, reduced Pmet17-GFP expression variability. At a second locus, cis-regulatory polymorphisms increased mean expression of the Mup1p methionine permease, causing increased expression variability in trans. These results demonstrate that an expression quantitative trait locus (eQTL) can simultaneously have a deterministic effect in cis and a probabilistic effect in trans. Our observations indicate that the evolution of transmembrane transporter genes can tune intraclonal variation and may therefore be implicated in both reactive and anticipatory strategies of adaptation. PMID:24104478

The influence of global sea surface temperature variability on the large-scale land surface temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tyrrell, Nicholas L.; Dommenget, Dietmar; Frauen, Claudia; Wales, Scott; Rezny, Mike

2015-04-01

In global warming scenarios, global land surface temperatures () warm with greater amplitude than sea surface temperatures (SSTs), leading to a land/sea warming contrast even in equilibrium. Similarly, the interannual variability of is larger than the covariant interannual SST variability, leading to a land/sea contrast in natural variability. This work investigates the land/sea contrast in natural variability based on global observations, coupled general circulation model simulations and idealised atmospheric general circulation model simulations with different SST forcings. The land/sea temperature contrast in interannual variability is found to exist in observations and models to a varying extent in global, tropical and extra-tropical bands. There is agreement between models and observations in the tropics but not the extra-tropics. Causality in the land-sea relationship is explored with modelling experiments forced with prescribed SSTs, where an amplification of the imposed SST variability is seen over land. The amplification of to tropical SST anomalies is due to the enhanced upper level atmospheric warming that corresponds with tropical moist convection over oceans leading to upper level temperature variations that are larger in amplitude than the source SST anomalies. This mechanism is similar to that proposed for explaining the equilibrium global warming land/sea warming contrast. The link of the to the dominant mode of tropical and global interannual climate variability, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is found to be an indirect and delayed connection. ENSO SST variability affects the oceans outside the tropical Pacific, which in turn leads to a further, amplified and delayed response of.

Bottom-up and Top-down Input Augment the Variability of Cortical Neurons

PubMed Central

Nassi, Jonathan J.; Kreiman, Gabriel; Born, Richard T.

2016-01-01

SUMMARY Neurons in the cerebral cortex respond inconsistently to a repeated sensory stimulus, yet they underlie our stable sensory experiences. Although the nature of this variability is unknown, its ubiquity has encouraged the general view that each cell produces random spike patterns that noisily represent its response rate. In contrast, here we show that reversibly inactivating distant sources of either bottom-up or top-down input to cortical visual areas in the alert primate reduces both the spike train irregularity and the trial-to-trial variability of single neurons. A simple model in which a fraction of the pre-synaptic input is silenced can reproduce this reduction in variability, provided that there exist temporal correlations primarily within, but not between, excitatory and inhibitory input pools. A large component of the variability of cortical neurons may therefore arise from synchronous input produced by signals arriving from multiple sources. PMID:27427459

Identifying anomalously early spring onsets in the CESM large ensemble project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Labe, Zachary; Ault, Toby; Zurita-Milla, Raul

2017-06-01

Seasonal transitions from winter to spring impact a wide variety of ecological and physical systems. While the effects of early springs across North America are widely documented, changes in their frequency and likelihood under the combined influences of climate change and natural variability are poorly understood. Extremely early springs, such as March 2012, can lead to severe economical losses and agricultural damage when these are followed by hard freeze events. Here we use the new Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble project and Extended Spring Indices to simulate historical and future spring onsets across the United States and in the particular the Great Lakes region. We found a marked increase in the frequency of March 2012-like springs by midcentury in addition to an overall trend towards earlier spring onsets, which nearly doubles that of observational records. However, changes in the date of last freeze do not occur at the same rate, therefore, causing a potential increase in the threat of plant tissue damage. Although large-scale climate modes, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, have previously dominated decadal to multidecadal spring onset trends, our results indicate a decreased role in natural climate variability and hence a greater forced response by the end of the century for modulating trends. Without a major reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, our study suggests that years like 2012 in the US could become normal by mid-century.

Workplace drug testing and worker drug use.

PubMed

Carpenter, Christopher S

2007-04-01

To examine the nature and extent of the association between workplace drug testing and worker drug use. Repeated cross-sections from the 2000 to 2001 National Household Surveys on Drug Abuse (NHSDA) and the 2002 National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH). Multivariate logistic regression models of the likelihood of marijuana use are estimated as a function of several different workplace drug policies, including drug testing. Specific questions about penalty severity and the likelihood of detection are used to further evaluate the nature of the association. Individuals whose employers perform drug tests are significantly less likely to report past month marijuana use, even after controlling for a wide array of worker and job characteristics. However, large negative associations are also found for variables indicating whether a firm has drug education, an employee assistance program, or a simple written policy about substance use. Accounting for these other workplace characteristics reduces-but does not eliminate-the testing differential. Frequent testing and severe penalties reduce the likelihood that workers use marijuana. Previous studies have interpreted the large negative correlation between workplace drug testing and employee substance use as representing a causal deterrent effect of drug testing. Our results using more comprehensive data suggest that these estimates have been slightly overstated due to omitted variables bias. The overall pattern of results remains largely consistent with the hypothesis that workplace drug testing deters worker drug use.

Population size is weakly related to quantitative genetic variation and trait differentiation in a stream fish.

PubMed

Wood, Jacquelyn L A; Tezel, Defne; Joyal, Destin; Fraser, Dylan J

2015-09-01

How population size influences quantitative genetic variation and differentiation among natural, fragmented populations remains unresolved. Small, isolated populations might occupy poor quality habitats and lose genetic variation more rapidly due to genetic drift than large populations. Genetic drift might furthermore overcome selection as population size decreases. Collectively, this might result in directional changes in additive genetic variation (VA ) and trait differentiation (QST ) from small to large population size. Alternatively, small populations might exhibit larger variation in VA and QST if habitat fragmentation increases variability in habitat types. We explored these alternatives by investigating VA and QST using nine fragmented populations of brook trout varying 50-fold in census size N (179-8416) and 10-fold in effective number of breeders, Nb (18-135). Across 15 traits, no evidence was found for consistent differences in VA and QST with population size and almost no evidence for increased variability of VA or QST estimates at small population size. This suggests that (i) small populations of some species may retain adaptive potential according to commonly adopted quantitative genetic measures and (ii) populations of varying sizes experience a variety of environmental conditions in nature, however extremely large studies are likely required before any firm conclusions can be made. © 2015 The Author(s). Evolution © 2015 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Early forest dynamics in stand-replacing fire patches in the northern Sierra Nevada, California, USA

Treesearch

Brandon M. Collins; Gary B. Roller

2013-01-01

There is considerable concern over the occurrence of stand-replacing fire in forest types historically associated with low- to moderate-severity fire. The concern is largely over whether contemporary levels of stand-replacing fire are outside the historical range of variability, and what natural forest recovery is in these forest types following stand-replacing fire....

Pre-Service Teachers' Use of Dynamic Discourse Variables during Classroom Teaching

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kaya, Sibel; Ceviz, Asli Elgun

2017-01-01

The aim of this study is to examine the nature of questioning in primary classrooms taught by teacher candidates. The participants were 39 teacher candidates enrolled in the Department of Primary Education at a large university in Western Turkey as well as 3rd and 4th-grade students in four schools located in the area. Each teacher candidate has…

Declining annual streamflow distributions in the Pacific Northwest United States, 1948-2006

Treesearch

C. H. Luce; Z. A. Holden

2009-01-01

Much of the discussion on climate change and water in the western United States centers on decreased snowpack and earlier spring runoff. Although increasing variability in annual flows has been noted, the nature of those changes is largely unexplored. We tested for trends in the distribution of annual runoff using quantile regression at 43 gages in the Pacific...

Variability of African Farming Systems from Phenological Analysis of NDVI Time Series

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vrieling, Anton; deBeurs, K. M.; Brown, Molly E.

2011-01-01

Food security exists when people have access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food at all times to meet their dietary needs. The natural resource base is one of the many factors affecting food security. Its variability and decline creates problems for local food production. In this study we characterize for sub-Saharan Africa vegetation phenology and assess variability and trends of phenological indicators based on NDVI time series from 1982 to 2006. We focus on cumulated NDVI over the season (cumNDVI) which is a proxy for net primary productivity. Results are aggregated at the level of major farming systems, while determining also spatial variability within farming systems. High temporal variability of cumNDVI occurs in semiarid and subhumid regions. The results show a large area of positive cumNDVI trends between Senegal and South Sudan. These correspond to positive CRU rainfall trends found and relate to recovery after the 1980's droughts. We find significant negative cumNDVI trends near the south-coast of West Africa (Guinea coast) and in Tanzania. For each farming system, causes of change and variability are discussed based on available literature (Appendix A). Although food security comprises more than the local natural resource base, our results can perform an input for food security analysis by identifying zones of high variability or downward trends. Farming systems are found to be a useful level of analysis. Diversity and trends found within farming system boundaries underline that farming systems are dynamic.

Evaluating Air-Quality Models: Review and Outlook.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weil, J. C.; Sykes, R. I.; Venkatram, A.

1992-10-01

Over the past decade, much attention has been devoted to the evaluation of air-quality models with emphasis on model performance in predicting the high concentrations that are important in air-quality regulations. This paper stems from our belief that this practice needs to be expanded to 1) evaluate model physics and 2) deal with the large natural or stochastic variability in concentration. The variability is represented by the root-mean- square fluctuating concentration (c about the mean concentration (C) over an ensemble-a given set of meteorological, source, etc. conditions. Most air-quality models used in applications predict C, whereas observations are individual realizations drawn from an ensemble. For cC large residuals exist between predicted and observed concentrations, which confuse model evaluations.This paper addresses ways of evaluating model physics in light of the large c the focus is on elevated point-source models. Evaluation of model physics requires the separation of the mean model error-the difference between the predicted and observed C-from the natural variability. A residual analysis is shown to be an elective way of doing this. Several examples demonstrate the usefulness of residuals as well as correlation analyses and laboratory data in judging model physics.In general, c models and predictions of the probability distribution of the fluctuating concentration (c), (c, are in the developmental stage, with laboratory data playing an important role. Laboratory data from point-source plumes in a convection tank show that (c approximates a self-similar distribution along the plume center plane, a useful result in a residual analysis. At pmsent,there is one model-ARAP-that predicts C, c, and (c for point-source plumes. This model is more computationally demanding than other dispersion models (for C only) and must be demonstrated as a practical tool. However, it predicts an important quantity for applications- the uncertainty in the very high and infrequent concentrations. The uncertainty is large and is needed in evaluating operational performance and in predicting the attainment of air-quality standards.

Natural habitats matter: Determinants of spatial pattern in the composition of animal assemblages of the Czech Republic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Divíšek, Jan; Zelený, David; Culek, Martin; Št'astný, Karel

2014-08-01

Studies that explore species-environment relationships at a broad scale are usually limited by the availability of sufficient habitat description, which is often too coarse to differentiate natural habitat patches. Therefore, it is not well understood how the distribution of natural habitats affects broad-scale patterns in the distribution of animal species. In this study, we evaluate the role of field-mapped natural habitats, land-cover types derived from remote sensing and climate on the composition of assemblages of five distinct animal groups, namely non-volant mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians and butterflies native to the Czech Republic. First, we used variation partitioning based on redundancy analysis to evaluate the extent to which the environmental variables and their spatial structure might underlie the observed spatial patterns in the composition of animal assemblages. Second, we partitioned variations explained by climate, natural habitats and land-cover to compare their relative importance. Finally, we tested the independent effects of each variable in order to evaluate the significance of their contributions to the environmental model. Our results showed that spatial patterns in the composition of assemblages of almost all the considered animal groups may be ascribed mostly to variations in the environment. Although the shared effects of climatic variables, natural habitats and land-cover types explained the largest proportion of variation in each animal group, the variation explained purely by natural habitats was always higher than the variation explained purely by climate or land-cover. We conclude that most spatial variation in the composition of assemblages of almost all animal groups probably arises from biological processes operating within a spatially structured environment and suggest that natural habitats are important to explain observed patterns because they often perform better than habitat descriptions based on remote sensing. This underlines the value of using appropriate habitat data, for which high-resolution and large-area field-mapping projects are necessary.

Geomorphic and human influence on large-scale coastal change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hapke, Cheryl J.; Kratzmann, Meredith G.; Himmelstoss, Emily A.

2013-01-01

An increasing need exists for regional-scale measurements of shoreline change to aid in management and planning decisions over a broad portion of the coast and to inform assessments of coastal vulnerabilities and hazards. A recent dataset of regional shoreline change, covering a large portion of the U.S. East coast (New England and Mid-Atlantic), provides rates of shoreline change over historical (~ 150 years) and recent (25–30 years) time periods making it ideal for a broad assessment of the regional variation of shoreline change, and the natural and human-induced influences on coastal behavior. The variable coastal landforms of the region provide an opportunity to investigate how specific geomorphic landforms relate to the spatial variability of shoreline change. In addition to natural influences on the rates of change, we examine the effects that development and human modifications to the coastline have on the measurements of regional shoreline change.Regional variation in the rates of shoreline change is a function of the dominant type and distribution of coastal landform as well as the relative amount of human development. Our results indicate that geomorphology has measurable influence on shoreline change rates. Anthropogenic impacts are found to be greater along the more densely developed and modified portion of the coast where jetties at engineered inlets impound large volumes of sediment resulting in extreme but discrete progradation updrift of jetties. This produces a shift in averaged values of rates that may mask the natural long-term record. Additionally, a strong correlation is found to exist between rates of shoreline change and relative level of human development. Using a geomorphic characterization of the types of coastal landform as a guide for expected relative rates of change, we found that the shoreline appears to be changing naturally only along sparsely developed coasts. Even modest amounts of development influence the rates of change and the human imprint override the geomorphic signal. The study demonstrates that human activities associated with creating and maintaining coastal infrastructure alter the natural behavior of the coast over hundreds of kilometers and time spans greater than a century. This suggests that future assessments of vulnerability, based largely on rates of change along developed coastlines, need to take the role of human alterations into account.

Detection, attribution, and sensitivity of trends toward earlier streamflow in the Sierra Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Maurer, E.P.; Stewart, I.T.; Bonfils, Celine; Duffy, P.B.; Cayan, D.

2007-01-01

Observed changes in the timing of snowmelt dominated streamflow in the western United States are often linked to anthropogenic or other external causes. We assess whether observed streamflow timing changes can be statistically attributed to external forcing, or whether they still lie within the bounds of natural (internal) variability for four large Sierra Nevada (CA) basins, at inflow points to major reservoirs. Streamflow timing is measured by "center timing" (CT), the day when half the annual flow has passed a given point. We use a physically based hydrology model driven by meteorological input from a global climate model to quantify the natural variability in CT trends. Estimated 50-year trends in CT due to natural climate variability often exceed estimated actual CT trends from 1950 to 1999. Thus, although observed trends in CT to date may be statistically significant, they cannot yet be statistically attributed to external influences on climate. We estimate that projected CT changes at the four major reservoir inflows will, with 90% confidence, exceed those from natural variability within 1-4 decades or 4-8 decades, depending on rates of future greenhouse gas emissions. To identify areas most likely to exhibit CT changes in response to rising temperatures, we calculate changes in CT under temperature increases from 1 to 5??. We find that areas with average winter temperatures between -2??C and -4??C are most likely to respond with significant CT shifts. Correspondingly, elevations from 2000 to 2800 in are most sensitive to temperature increases, with CT changes exceeding 45 days (earlier) relative to 1961-1990. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.

Representation of critical natural capital in China.

PubMed

Lü, Yihe; Zhang, Liwei; Zeng, Yuan; Fu, Bojie; Whitham, Charlotte; Liu, Shuguang; Wu, Bingfang

2017-08-01

Traditional means of assessing representativeness of conservation value in protected areas depend on measures of structural biodiversity. The effectiveness of priority conservation areas at representing critical natural capital (CNC) (i.e., an essential and renewable subset of natural capital) remains largely unknown. We analyzed the representativeness of CNC-conservation priority areas in national nature reserves (i.e., nature reserves under jurisdiction of the central government with large spatial distribution across the provinces) in China with a new biophysical-based composite indicator approach. With this approach, we integrated the net primary production of vegetation, topography, soil, and climate variables to map and rank terrestrial ecosystems capacities to generate CNC. National nature reserves accounted for 6.7% of CNC-conservation priority areas across China. Considerable gaps (35.2%) existed between overall (or potential) CNC representativeness nationally and CNC representation in national reserves, and there was significant spatial heterogeneity of representativeness in CNC-conservation priority areas at the regional and provincial levels. For example, the best and worst representations were, respectively, 13.0% and 1.6% regionally and 28.9% and 0.0% provincially. Policy in China is transitioning toward the goal of an ecologically sustainable civilization. We identified CNC-conservation priority areas and conservation gaps and thus contribute to the policy goals of optimization of the national nature reserve network and the demarcation of areas critical to improving the representativeness and conservation of highly functioning areas of natural capital. Moreover, our method for assessing representation of CNC can be easily adapted to other large-scale networks of conservation areas because few data are needed, and our model is relatively simple. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

Local-scale models reveal ecological niche variability in amphibian and reptile communities from two contrasting biogeographic regions

PubMed Central

Santos, Xavier; Felicísimo, Ángel M.

2016-01-01

Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) are widely used to describe how environmental factors influence species distribution. Modelling at a local scale, compared to a large scale within a high environmental gradient, can improve our understanding of ecological species niches. The main goal of this study is to assess and compare the contribution of environmental variables to amphibian and reptile ENMs in two Spanish national parks located in contrasting biogeographic regions, i.e., the Mediterranean and the Atlantic area. The ENMs were built with maximum entropy modelling using 11 environmental variables in each territory. The contributions of these variables to the models were analysed and classified using various statistical procedures (Mann–Whitney U tests, Principal Components Analysis and General Linear Models). Distance to the hydrological network was consistently the most relevant variable for both parks and taxonomic classes. Topographic variables (i.e., slope and altitude) were the second most predictive variables, followed by climatic variables. Differences in variable contribution were observed between parks and taxonomic classes. Variables related to water availability had the larger contribution to the models in the Mediterranean park, while topography variables were decisive in the Atlantic park. Specific response curves to environmental variables were in accordance with the biogeographic affinity of species (Mediterranean and non-Mediterranean species) and taxonomy (amphibians and reptiles). Interestingly, these results were observed for species located in both parks, particularly those situated at their range limits. Our findings show that ecological niche models built at local scale reveal differences in habitat preferences within a wide environmental gradient. Therefore, modelling at local scales rather than assuming large-scale models could be preferable for the establishment of conservation strategies for herptile species in natural parks. PMID:27761304

Flexible Method for Inter-object Communication in C++

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Curlett, Brian P.; Gould, Jack J.

1994-01-01

A method has been developed for organizing and sharing large amounts of information between objects in C++ code. This method uses a set of object classes to define variables and group them into tables. The variable tables presented here provide a convenient way of defining and cataloging data, as well as a user-friendly input/output system, a standardized set of access functions, mechanisms for ensuring data integrity, methods for interprocessor data transfer, and an interpretive language for programming relationships between parameters. The object-oriented nature of these variable tables enables the use of multiple data types, each with unique attributes and behavior. Because each variable provides its own access methods, redundant table lookup functions can be bypassed, thus decreasing access times while maintaining data integrity. In addition, a method for automatic reference counting was developed to manage memory safely.

Flexible LNG supply, storage and price formation in a global natural gas market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayes, Mark Hanley

The body of work included in this dissertation explores the interaction of the growing, flexible liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade with the fundamentals of pipeline gas supply, gas storage, and gas consumption. By nature of its uses---largely for residential heating and electric power generation---the consumption of natural gas is highly variable both seasonally and on less predictable daily and weekly timescales. Flexible LNG trade will interconnect previously isolated regional gas markets, each with non-correlated variability in gas demand, differing gas storage costs, and heterogeneous institutional structures. The dissertation employs a series of analytical models to address key issues that will affect the expansion of the LNG trade and the implications for gas prices, investment and energy policy. First, I employ an optimization model to evaluate the fundamentals of seasonal LNG swing between markets with non-correlated gas demand (the U.S. and Europe). The model provides insights about the interaction of LNG trade with gas storage and price formation in interconnected regional markets. I then explore how random (stochastic) variability in gas demand will drive spot cargo movements and covariation in regional gas prices. Finally, I analyze the different institutional structures of the gas markets in the U.S. and Europe and consider how managed gas markets in Europe---without a competitive wholesale gas market---may effectively "export" supply and price volatility to countries with more competitive gas markets, such as the U.S.

Are GRACE-era terrestrial water trends driven by anthropogenic climate change?

DOE PAGES

Fasullo, J. T.; Lawrence, D. M.; Swenson, S. C.

2016-01-01

To provide context for observed trends in terrestrial water storage (TWS) during GRACE (2003–2014), trends and variability in the CESM1-CAM5 Large Ensemble (LE) are examined. Motivated in part by the anomalous nature of climate variability during GRACE, the characteristics of both forced change and internal modes are quantified and their influences on observations are estimated. Trends during the GRACE era in the LE are dominated by internal variability rather than by the forced response, with TWS anomalies in much of the Americas, eastern Australia, Africa, and southwestern Eurasia largely attributable to the negative phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)more » and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). While similarities between observed trends and the model-inferred forced response also exist, it is inappropriate to attribute such trends mainly to anthropogenic forcing. For several key river basins, trends in the mean state and interannual variability and the time at which the forced response exceeds background variability are also estimated while aspects of global mean TWS, including changes in its annual amplitude and decadal trends, are quantified. Lastly, the findings highlight the challenge of detecting anthropogenic climate change in temporally finite satellite datasets and underscore the benefit of utilizing models in the interpretation of the observed record.« less

Optimal strategies for observation of active galactic nuclei variability with Imaging Atmospheric Cherenkov Telescopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giomi, Matteo; Gerard, Lucie; Maier, Gernot

2016-07-01

Variable emission is one of the defining characteristic of active galactic nuclei (AGN). While providing precious information on the nature and physics of the sources, variability is often challenging to observe with time- and field-of-view-limited astronomical observatories such as Imaging Atmospheric Cherenkov Telescopes (IACTs). In this work, we address two questions relevant for the observation of sources characterized by AGN-like variability: what is the most time-efficient way to detect such sources, and what is the observational bias that can be introduced by the choice of the observing strategy when conducting blind surveys of the sky. Different observing strategies are evaluated using simulated light curves and realistic instrument response functions of the Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA), a future gamma-ray observatory. We show that strategies that makes use of very small observing windows, spread over large periods of time, allows for a faster detection of the source, and are less influenced by the variability properties of the sources, as compared to strategies that concentrate the observing time in a small number of large observing windows. Although derived using CTA as an example, our conclusions are conceptually valid for any IACTs facility, and in general, to all observatories with small field of view and limited duty cycle.

Are GRACE-era terrestrial water trends driven by anthropogenic climate change?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fasullo, J. T.; Lawrence, D. M.; Swenson, S. C.

To provide context for observed trends in terrestrial water storage (TWS) during GRACE (2003–2014), trends and variability in the CESM1-CAM5 Large Ensemble (LE) are examined. Motivated in part by the anomalous nature of climate variability during GRACE, the characteristics of both forced change and internal modes are quantified and their influences on observations are estimated. Trends during the GRACE era in the LE are dominated by internal variability rather than by the forced response, with TWS anomalies in much of the Americas, eastern Australia, Africa, and southwestern Eurasia largely attributable to the negative phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)more » and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). While similarities between observed trends and the model-inferred forced response also exist, it is inappropriate to attribute such trends mainly to anthropogenic forcing. For several key river basins, trends in the mean state and interannual variability and the time at which the forced response exceeds background variability are also estimated while aspects of global mean TWS, including changes in its annual amplitude and decadal trends, are quantified. Lastly, the findings highlight the challenge of detecting anthropogenic climate change in temporally finite satellite datasets and underscore the benefit of utilizing models in the interpretation of the observed record.« less

Natural versus anthropogenic factors affecting low-level cloud albedo over the North Atlantic

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Falkowski, Paul G.; Kim, Yongseung; Kolber, Zbigniew; Wilson, Cara; Wirick, Creighton; Cess, Robert

1992-01-01

Cloud albedo plays a key role in regulating earth's climate. Cloud albedo depends on column-integrated liquid water content and the density of cloud condensation nuclei, which consists primarily of submicrometer-sized aerosol sulfate particles. A comparison of two independent satellite data sets suggests that, although anthropogenic sulfate emissions may enhance cloud albedo immediately adjacent to the east coast of the United States, over the central North Atlantic Ocean the variability in albedo can be largely accounted for by natural marine and atmospheric processes that probably have remained relatively constant since the beginning of the industrial revolution.

A new generation of intelligent trainable tools for analyzing large scientific image databases

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fayyad, Usama M.; Smyth, Padhraic; Atkinson, David J.

1994-01-01

The focus of this paper is on the detection of natural, as opposed to human-made, objects. The distinction is important because, in the context of image analysis, natural objects tend to possess much greater variability in appearance than human-made objects. Hence, we shall focus primarily on the use of algorithms that 'learn by example' as the basis for image exploration. The 'learn by example' approach is potentially more generally applicable compared to model-based vision methods since domain scientists find it relatively easier to provide examples of what they are searching for versus describing a model.

Ground and aircraft-based methane measurements in Siberia: source attribution using tracers and models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arzoumanian, E.; Paris, J. D.; Pruvost, A.; Peng, S.; Turquety, S.; Berchet, A.; Pison, I.; Helle, J.; Arshinov, M.; Belan, B. D.

2015-12-01

Methane (CH4) is the second most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas. It is also naturally emitted by a number of processes, including microbial activity in wetlands, permafrost degradation and wildfires. Our current understanding of the extent and amplitude of its natural sources, as well as the large scale driving factors, remain highly uncertain (Kirschke et al., Nature Geosci., 2013). Furthermore, high latitude regions are large natural sources of CH4 in the atmosphere. Observing boreal/Arctic CH4 variability and understanding its main driving processes using atmospheric measurements and transport model is the task of this work. YAK-AEROSIB atmospheric airborne campaigns (flights in the tropospheric layer up to 9 km connecting the two cities of Novosibirsk and Yakutsk) and continuous measurements at Fonovaya Observatory (60 km west of Tomsk - 56° 25'07"N, 84° 04'27"E) have been performed in order to provide observational data on the composition of Siberian air. The study is focused on 2012, during which a strong heat wave impacted Siberia, leading to the highest mean daily temperature values on record since the beginning of the 20th century. This abnormal drought has led to numerous large forest fires. A chemistry-transport model (CHIMERE), combined with datasets for anthropogenic (EDGAR) emissions and models for wetlands (ORCHIDEE) and wildfires (APIFLAME), is used to determine contributions of CH4 sources in the region. Recent results concerning CH4 fluxes and its atmospheric variability in the Siberian territory derived from a modeled-based analysis will be shown and discussed. This work was funded by CNRS (France), the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs, CEA (France), Presidium of RAS (Program No. 4), Brunch of Geology, Geophysics and Mining Sciences of RAS (Program No. 5), Interdisciplinary integration projects of Siberian Branch of RAS (No. 35, No. 70, No. 131), Russian Foundation for Basic Research (grants No 14-05-00526, 14-05-00590). Kirschke, S. et al. : Three decades of global methane sources and sinks. Nature Geosci., 6, 813-823

Differences in rocky reef habitats related to human disturbances across a latitudinal gradient.

PubMed

Glasby, Tim M; Gibson, Peter T; Cruz-Motta, Juan J

2017-08-01

This study tested for differences in the composition of intertidal and shallow subtidal rocky reef habitats subjected to a range of human pressures across ∼1000 km of coastline in New South Wales, Australia over 5 years. Percentage covers of habitats were sampled using aerial photography and a large grain size (20 m 2 intertidal; 800 m 2 subtidal) in a nested hierarchical design. Results were consistent with anthropogenic impacts on habitat structure only around estuaries with the most heavily urbanised or agriculturally-intense catchments. The most convincing relationships documented here related to environmental variables such as SST, latitude, reef width and proximity to large estuaries irrespective of human disturbance levels. Moreover, there were suggestions that any influences of estuarine waters (be they anthropogenic or natural) on reef assemblages could potentially extend 10s of kilometres from major estuaries. In general, our results supported those of studies that utilised smaller grain sizes (greatest variability often at smallest spatial scales), but we found that variability over scales of 100s of km can be similar to or greater than variability over scales of 10s of metres. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Large-Scale Effects of Timber Harvesting on Stream Systems in the Ouachita Mountains, Arkansas, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, Lance R.; Taylor, Christopher M.; Warren, Melvin L., Jr.; Clingenpeel, J. Alan

2002-01-01

Using Basin Area Stream Survey (BASS) data from the United States Forest Service, we evaluated how timber harvesting influenced patterns of variation in physical stream features and regional fish and macroinvertebrate assemblages. Data were collected for three years (1990-1992) from six hydrologically variable streams in the Ouachita Mountains, Arkansas, USA that were paired by management regime within three drainage basins. Specifically, we used multivariate techniques to partition variability in assemblage structure (taxonomic and trophic) that could be explained by timber harvesting, drainage basin differences, year-to-year variability, and their shared variance components. Most of the variation in fish assemblages was explained by drainage basin differences, and both basin and year-of-sampling influenced macroinvertebrate assemblages. All three factors modeled, including interactions between drainage basins and timber harvesting, influenced variability in physical stream features. Interactions between timber harvesting and drainage basins indicated that differences in physical stream features were important in determining the effects of logging within a basin. The lack of a logging effect on the biota contradicts predictions for these small, hydrologically variable streams. We believe this pattern is related to the large scale of this study and the high levels of natural variability in the streams. Alternatively, there may be time-specific effects we were unable to detect with our sampling design and analyses.

Implementation of smart phone video plethysmography and dependence on lighting parameters.

PubMed

Fletcher, Richard Ribón; Chamberlain, Daniel; Paggi, Nicholas; Deng, Xinyue

2015-08-01

The remote measurement of heart rate (HR) and heart rate variability (HRV) via a digital camera (video plethysmography) has emerged as an area of great interest for biomedical and health applications. While a few implementations of video plethysmography have been demonstrated on smart phones under controlled lighting conditions, it has been challenging to create a general scalable solution due to the large variability in smart phone hardware performance, software architecture, and the variable response to lighting parameters. In this context, we present a selfcontained smart phone implementation of video plethysmography for Android OS, which employs both stochastic and deterministic algorithms, and we use this to study the effect of lighting parameters (illuminance, color spectrum) on the accuracy of the remote HR measurement. Using two different phone models, we present the median HR error for five different video plethysmography algorithms under three different types of lighting (natural sunlight, compact fluorescent, and halogen incandescent) and variations in brightness. For most algorithms, we found the optimum light brightness to be in the range 1000-4000 lux and the optimum lighting types to be compact fluorescent and natural light. Moderate errors were found for most algorithms with some devices under conditions of low-brightness (<;500 lux) and highbrightness (>4000 lux). Our analysis also identified camera frame rate jitter as a major source of variability and error across different phone models, but this can be largely corrected through non-linear resampling. Based on testing with six human subjects, our real-time Android implementation successfully predicted the measured HR with a median error of -0.31 bpm, and an inter-quartile range of 2.1bpm.

A Preliminary Analysis of Attachment to Special Places among Community Residents in Northern Michigan

Treesearch

Janna B. Custer; Dale J. Blahna

2000-01-01

Many studies have taken place that seek to gain an understanding of the influences upon attachment to special places. These studies have been largely qualitative in nature and have succeeded in identifying quantifiable variables that can be useful in measuring basic levels of attachment to special places, e.g., length of time that one has been associated with special...

Anticipating Good Longleaf Pine Cone Crops: The Key to Successful Natural Regeneration

Treesearch

William D. Boyer

1997-01-01

Unlike other southern pines, or most intolerant pioneer species, longleaf pine is a poor seed producer. Cone crops are highly variable from year to-year, and also from place to place in the same year. Crops large enough to assure adequate regeneration are few and far between, especially in the longleaf pine belt of the southern Coastal Plains. Not only is this species...

Blue large-amplitude pulsators as a new class of variable stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pietrukowicz, Paweł; Dziembowski, Wojciech A.; Latour, Marilyn; Angeloni, Rodolfo; Poleski, Radosław; di Mille, Francesco; Soszyński, Igor; Udalski, Andrzej; Szymański, Michał K.; Wyrzykowski, Łukasz; Kozłowski, Szymon; Skowron, Jan; Skowron, Dorota; Mróz, Przemek; Pawlak, Michał; Ulaczyk, Krzysztof

2017-08-01

Regular intrinsic brightness variations observed in many stars are caused by pulsations. These pulsations provide information on the global and structural parameters of the star. The pulsation periods range from seconds to years, depending on the compactness of the star and properties of the matter that forms its outer layers. Here, we report the discovery of more than a dozen previously unknown short-period variable stars: blue large-amplitude pulsators. These objects show very regular brightness variations with periods in the range of 20-40 min and amplitudes of 0.2-0.4 mag in the optical passbands. The phased light curves have a characteristic sawtooth shape, similar to the shape of classical Cepheids and RR Lyrae-type stars pulsating in the fundamental mode. The objects are significantly bluer than main-sequence stars observed in the same fields, which indicates that all of them are hot stars. Follow-up spectroscopy confirms a high surface temperature of about 30,000 K. Temperature and colour changes over the cycle prove the pulsational nature of the variables. However, large-amplitude pulsations at such short periods are not observed in any known type of stars, including hot objects. Long-term photometric observations show that the variable stars are very stable over time. Derived rates of period change are of the order of 10-7 per year and, in most cases, they are positive. According to pulsation theory, such large-amplitude oscillations may occur in evolved low-mass stars that have inflated helium-enriched envelopes. The evolutionary path that could lead to such stellar configurations remains unknown.

Palaeoclimate dynamics : a voyage through scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crucifix, Michel; Mitsui, Takahito

2015-04-01

Our knowledge of climate dynamics depends on indirect observations of past climate evolution, as well as on what can be inferred from theoretical arguments. At the scale of the Cenozoic, it is common to define a framework of nested time scales, the longest time scale of interest being related to the slow tectonic evolution, then variability associated with or controlled by the astronomical forcing, and finally the fastest dynamics associated with the natural modes of variability of the ocean and the atmosphere. For example, in a model, the astronomical modes of variability may be simulated with deterministic equations under fixed boundary conditions representing the tectonic state, and associated with stochastic parameterisations of the ocean-atmosphere (chaotic) modes of motion. Bifurcations or, more generally, qualitative changes in climate dynamics may be scanned by changing slowly the tectonic state, in order to provide explanations to observed changes in regimes such as the appearance of ice ages and their changes in length or amplitude. The above framework, largely theorized by B. Saltzman, may still be partly justified but is in need of a review. We address here specifically three questions: To what extent astronomical variability interacts with natural modes of ocean - atmosphere variability ? Specifically, how does millennial variability (e.g.: Dansgaard-Oeschger events) fit the Saltzman scheme ? The astronomical forcing is quasi-periodic, and we recently showed that it may produce somewhat counter-intuitive dynamics associated with the emergence of strange non-chaotic attractors. What are the consequences on the spectrum of climate variability ? What are the effects of centennial climate variability on the slow variability of climate ? These three questions are addressed by reference to recently published material, with the objective of emphasising research questions to be explored in the near future.

Observations of Seafloor Roughness in a Tidally Modulated Inlet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lippmann, T. C.; Hunt, J.

2014-12-01

The vertical structure of shallow water flows are influenced by the presence of a bottom boundary layer, which spans the water column for long period waves or mean flows. The nature of the boundary is determined in part by the roughness elements that make up the seafloor, and includes sometimes complex undulations associated with regular and irregular shaped bedforms whose scales range several orders of magnitude from orbital wave ripples (10-1 m) to mega-ripples (100 m) and even larger features (101-103) such as sand waves, bars, and dunes. Modeling efforts often parameterize the effects of roughness elements on flow fields, depending on the complexity of the boundary layer formulations. The problem is exacerbated by the transient nature of bedforms and their large spatial extent and variability. This is particularly important in high flow areas with large sediment transport, such as tidally dominated sandy inlets like New River Inlet, NC. Quantification of small scale seafloor variability over large spatial areas requires the use of mobile platforms that can measure with fine scale (order cm) accuracy in wide swaths. The problem is difficult in shallow water where waves and currents are large, and water clarity is often limited. In this work, we present results from bathymetric surveys obtained with the Coastal Bathymetry Survey System, a personal watercraft equipped with a Imagenex multibeam acoustic echosounder and Applanix POS-MV 320 GPS-aided inertial measurement unit. This system is able to measure shallow water seafloor bathymetry and backscatter intensity with very fine scale (10-1 m) resolution and over relatively large scales (103 m) in the presence of high waves and currents. Wavenumber spectra show that the noise floor of the resolved multibeam bathymetry is on the order of 2.5 - 5 cm in amplitude, depending on water depths ranging 2 - 6 m, and about 30 cm in wavelength. Seafloor roughness elements are estimated from wavenumber spectra across the inlet from bathymetric maps of the seafloor obtained with 10-25 cm horizontal resolution. Implications of the effects of the bottom variability on the vertical structure of the currents will be discussed. This work was supported by ONR and NOAA.

Risk of natural disturbances makes future contribution of Canada's forests to the global carbon cycle highly uncertain.

PubMed

Kurz, Werner A; Stinson, Graham; Rampley, Gregory J; Dymond, Caren C; Neilson, Eric T

2008-02-05

A large carbon sink in northern land surfaces inferred from global carbon cycle inversion models led to concerns during Kyoto Protocol negotiations that countries might be able to avoid efforts to reduce fossil fuel emissions by claiming large sinks in their managed forests. The greenhouse gas balance of Canada's managed forest is strongly affected by naturally occurring fire with high interannual variability in the area burned and by cyclical insect outbreaks. Taking these stochastic future disturbances into account, we used the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3) to project that the managed forests of Canada could be a source of between 30 and 245 Mt CO(2)e yr(-1) during the first Kyoto Protocol commitment period (2008-2012). The recent transition from sink to source is the result of large insect outbreaks. The wide range in the predicted greenhouse gas balance (215 Mt CO(2)e yr(-1)) is equivalent to nearly 30% of Canada's emissions in 2005. The increasing impact of natural disturbances, the two major insect outbreaks, and the Kyoto Protocol accounting rules all contributed to Canada's decision not to elect forest management. In Canada, future efforts to influence the carbon balance through forest management could be overwhelmed by natural disturbances. Similar circumstances may arise elsewhere if global change increases natural disturbance rates. Future climate mitigation agreements that do not account for and protect against the impacts of natural disturbances, for example, by accounting for forest management benefits relative to baselines, will fail to encourage changes in forest management aimed at mitigating climate change.

A new large initial condition ensemble to assess avoided impacts in a climate mitigation scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanderson, B. M.; Tebaldi, C.; Knutti, R.; Oleson, K. W.

2014-12-01

It has recently been demonstrated that when considering timescales of up to 50 years, natural variability may play an equal role to anthropogenic forcing on subcontinental trends for a variety of climate indicators. Thus, for many questions assessing climate impacts on such time and spatial scales, it has become clear that a significant number of ensemble members may be required to produce robust statistics (and especially so for extreme events). However, large ensemble experiments to date have considered the role of variability in a single scenario, leaving uncertain the relationship between the forced climate trajectory and the variability about that path. To address this issue, we present a new, publicly available, 15 member initial condition ensemble of 21st century climate projections for the RCP 4.5 scenario using the CESM1.1 Earth System Model, which we propose as a companion project to the existing 40 member CESM large ensemble which uses the higher greenhouse gas emission future of RCP8.5. This provides a valuable data set for assessing what societal and ecological impacts might be avoided through a moderate mitigation strategy in contrast to a fossil fuel intensive future. We present some early analyses of these combined ensembles to assess to what degree the climate variability can be considered to combine linearly with the underlying forced response. In regions where there is no detectable relationship between the mean state and the variability about the mean trajectory, then linear assumptions can be trivially exploited to utilize a single ensemble or control simulation to characterize the variability in any scenario of interest. We highlight regions where there is a detectable nonlinearity in extreme event frequency, how far in the future they will be manifested and propose mechanisms to account for these effects.

Atmospheric controls on the precipitation isotopes over the Andaman Islands, Bay of Bengal

PubMed Central

Chakraborty, S.; Sinha, N.; Chattopadhyay, R.; Sengupta, S.; Mohan, P. M.; Datye, A.

2016-01-01

Isotopic analysis of precipitation over the Andaman Island, Bay of Bengal was carried out for the year 2012 and 2013 in order to study the atmospheric controls on rainwater isotopic variations. The oxygen and hydrogen isotopic compositions are typical of the tropical marine sites but show significant variations depending on the ocean-atmosphere conditions; maximum depletion was observed during the tropical cyclones. The isotopic composition of rainwater seems to be controlled by the dynamical nature of the moisture rather than the individual rain events. Precipitation isotopes undergo systematic depletions in response to the organized convection occurring over a large area and are modulated by the integrated effect of convective activities. Precipitation isotopes appear to be linked with the monsoon intraseasonal variability in addition to synoptic scale fluctuations. During the early to mid monsoon the amount effect arose primarily due to rain re-evaporation but in the later phase it was driven by moisture convergence rather than evaporation. Amount effect had distinct characteristics in these two years, which appeared to be modulated by the intraseasonal variability of monsoon. It is shown that the variable nature of amount effect limits our ability to reconstruct the past-monsoon rainfall variability on annual to sub-annual time scale. PMID:26806683

Variabilities in probabilistic seismic hazard maps for natural and induced seismicity in the central and eastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mousavi, S. Mostafa; Beroza, Gregory C.; Hoover, Susan M.

2018-01-01

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) characterizes ground-motion hazard from earthquakes. Typically, the time horizon of a PSHA forecast is long, but in response to induced seismicity related to hydrocarbon development, the USGS developed one-year PSHA models. In this paper, we present a display of the variability in USGS hazard curves due to epistemic uncertainty in its informed submodel using a simple bootstrapping approach. We find that variability is highest in low-seismicity areas. On the other hand, areas of high seismic hazard, such as the New Madrid seismic zone or Oklahoma, exhibit relatively lower variability simply because of more available data and a better understanding of the seismicity. Comparing areas of high hazard, New Madrid, which has a history of large naturally occurring earthquakes, has lower forecast variability than Oklahoma, where the hazard is driven mainly by suspected induced earthquakes since 2009. Overall, the mean hazard obtained from bootstrapping is close to the published model, and variability increased in the 2017 one-year model relative to the 2016 model. Comparing the relative variations caused by individual logic-tree branches, we find that the highest hazard variation (as measured by the 95% confidence interval of bootstrapping samples) in the final model is associated with different ground-motion models and maximum magnitudes used in the logic tree, while the variability due to the smoothing distance is minimal. It should be pointed out that this study is not looking at the uncertainty in the hazard in general, but only as it is represented in the USGS one-year models.

[Standard algorithm of molecular typing of Yersinia pestis strains].

PubMed

Eroshenko, G A; Odinokov, G N; Kukleva, L M; Pavlova, A I; Krasnov, Ia M; Shavina, N Iu; Guseva, N P; Vinogradova, N A; Kutyrev, V V

2012-01-01

Development of the standard algorithm of molecular typing of Yersinia pestis that ensures establishing of subspecies, biovar and focus membership of the studied isolate. Determination of the characteristic strain genotypes of plague infectious agent of main and nonmain subspecies from various natural foci of plague of the Russian Federation and the near abroad. Genotyping of 192 natural Y. pestis strains of main and nonmain subspecies was performed by using PCR methods, multilocus sequencing and multilocus analysis of variable tandem repeat number. A standard algorithm of molecular typing of plague infectious agent including several stages of Yersinia pestis differentiation by membership: in main and nonmain subspecies, various biovars of the main subspecies, specific subspecies; natural foci and geographic territories was developed. The algorithm is based on 3 typing methods--PCR, multilocus sequence typing and multilocus analysis of variable tandem repeat number using standard DNA targets--life support genes (terC, ilvN, inv, glpD, napA, rhaS and araC) and 7 loci of variable tandem repeats (ms01, ms04, ms06, ms07, ms46, ms62, ms70). The effectiveness of the developed algorithm is shown on the large number of natural Y. pestis strains. Characteristic sequence types of Y. pestis strains of various subspecies and biovars as well as MLVA7 genotypes of strains from natural foci of plague of the Russian Federation and the near abroad were established. The application of the developed algorithm will increase the effectiveness of epidemiologic monitoring of plague infectious agent, and analysis of epidemics and outbreaks of plague with establishing the source of origin of the strain and routes of introduction of the infection.

How predictable is the timing of a summer ice-free Arctic?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jahn, Alexandra; Kay, Jennifer E.; Holland, Marika M.; Hall, David M.

2016-09-01

Climate model simulations give a large range of over 100 years for predictions of when the Arctic could first become ice free in the summer, and many studies have attempted to narrow this uncertainty range. However, given the chaotic nature of the climate system, what amount of spread in the prediction of an ice-free summer Arctic is inevitable? Based on results from large ensemble simulations with the Community Earth System Model, we show that internal variability alone leads to a prediction uncertainty of about two decades, while scenario uncertainty between the strong (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5) and medium (RCP4.5) forcing scenarios adds at least another 5 years. Common metrics of the past and present mean sea ice state (such as ice extent, volume, and thickness) as well as global mean temperatures do not allow a reduction of the prediction uncertainty from internal variability.

Genetic variability and differentiation among populations of the Azorean endemic gymnosperm Juniperus brevifolia: baseline information for a conservation and restoration perspective.

PubMed

Silva, Luís; Elias, Rui B; Moura, Mónica; Meimberg, Harald; Dias, Eduardo

2011-12-01

The Azorean endemic gymnosperm Juniperus brevifolia (Seub.) Antoine is a top priority species for conservation in Macaronesia, based on its ecological significance in natural plant communities. To evaluate genetic variability and differentiation among J. brevifolia populations from the Azorean archipelago, we studied 15 ISSR and 15 RAPD markers in 178 individuals from 18 populations. The average number of polymorphic bands per population was 65 for both ISSR and RAPD. The majority of genetic variability was found within populations and among populations within islands, and this partitioning of variability was confirmed by AMOVA. The large majority of population pairwise F(ST) values were above 0.3 and below 0.6. The degree of population genetic differentiation in J. brevifolia was relatively high compared with other species, including Juniperus spp. The genetic differentiation among populations suggests that provenance should be considered when formulating augmentation or reintroduction strategies.

Eclipsing binary stars in the era of massive surveys First results and future prospects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papageorgiou, Athanasios; Catelan, Márcio; Ramos, Rodrigo Contreras; Drake, Andrew J.

2017-09-01

Our thinking about eclipsing binary stars has undergone a tremendous change in the last decade. Eclipsing binary stars are one of nature's best laboratories for determining the fundamental physical properties of stars and thus for testing the predictions of theoretical models. Some of the largest ongoing variable star surveys include the Catalina Real-time Transient Survey (CRTS) and the VISTA Variables in the Vía Láctea survey (VVV). They both contain a large amount of photometric data and plenty of information about eclipsing binaries that wait to be extracted and exploited. Here we briefly describe our efforts in this direction.

Why do Tornados and Hail Storms Rest on Weekends?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenfeld, Daniel; Bell, Thomas L.

2010-01-01

When anthropogenic aerosols over the eastern USA during summertime are at their weekly mid-week peak, tornado and hail storm activity there is also near its weekly maximum. The weekly cycle in storm activity is statistically significant and unlikely to be due to natural variability. The pattern of variability supports the hypothesis that air pollution aerosols invigorate deep convective clouds in a moist, unstable atmosphere, to the extent of inducing production of large hailstones and tornados. This is caused by the effect of aerosols on cloud-drop nucleation, making cloud drops smaller, delaying precipitation-forming processes and their evaporation, and hence affecting cloud dynamics.

DISCOVERY OF FAST, LARGE-AMPLITUDE OPTICAL VARIABILITY OF V648 Car (=SS73-17)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Angeloni, R.; Di Mille, F.; Ferreira Lopes, C. E.

We report on the discovery of large-amplitude flickering from V648 Car (= SS73-17), a poorly studied object listed among the very few hard X-ray-emitting symbiotic stars. We performed millimagnitude precision optical photometry with the Swope Telescope at the Las Campanas Observatory, Chile, and found that V648 Car shows large U-band variability over timescales of minutes. To our knowledge, it exhibits some of the largest flickering of a symbiotic star ever reported. Our finding supports the hypothesis that symbiotic white dwarfs producing hard X-rays are predominantly powered by accretion, rather than quasi-steady nuclear burning, and have masses close to the Chandrasekharmore » limit. No significant periodicity is evident from the flickering light curve. The All Sky Automated Survey long-term V light curve suggests the presence of a tidally distorted giant accreting via Roche lobe overflow, and a binary period of {approx}520 days. On the basis of the outstanding physical properties of V648 Car as hinted at by its fast and long-term optical variability, as well as by its nature as a hard X-ray emitter, we therefore call for simultaneous follow-up observations in different bands, ideally combined with time-resolved optical spectroscopy.« less

The Use of Electromagnetic Induction Techniques for Soil Mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brevik, Eric C.; Doolittle, Jim

2015-04-01

Soils have high natural spatial variability. This has been recognized for a long time, and many methods of mapping that spatial variability have been investigated. One technique that has received considerable attention over the last ~30 years is electromagnetic induction (EMI). Particularly when coupled with modern GPS and GIS systems, EMI techniques have allowed the rapid and relatively inexpensive collection of large spatially-related data sets that can be correlated to soil properties that either directly or indirectly influence electrical conductance in the soil. Soil electrical conductivity is directly controlled by soil water content, soluble salt content, clay content and mineralogy, and temperature. A wide range of indirect controls have been identified, such as soil organic matter content and bulk density; both influence water relationships in the soil. EMI techniques work best in areas where there are large changes in one soil property that influences soil electrical conductance, and don't work as well when soil properties that influence electrical conductance are largely homogenous. This presentation will present examples of situations where EMI techniques were successful as well as a couple of examples of situations where EMI was not so useful in mapping the spatial variability of soil properties. Reasons for both the successes and failures will be discussed.

Drought in Northeast Brazil—past, present, and future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marengo, Jose A.; Torres, Roger Rodrigues; Alves, Lincoln Muniz

2017-08-01

This study provides an overview of the drought situation in Northeast Brazil for the past, present, and future. Droughts affect more people than any other natural hazard owing to their large scale and long-lasting nature. They are recurrent in the region and while some measures have been taken by the governments to mitigate their impacts, there is still a perception that residents, mainly in rural areas, are not yet adapted to these hazards. The drought affecting the Northeast from 2012 to 2015, however, has had an intensity and impact not seen in several decades and has already destroyed large swaths of cropland, affecting hundreds of cities and towns across the region, and leaving ranchers struggling to feed and water cattle. Future climate projections for the area show large temperature increases and rainfall reductions, which, together with a tendency for longer periods with consecutive dry days, suggest the occurrence of more frequent/intense dry spells and droughts and a tendency toward aridification in the region. All these conditions lead to an increase in evaporation from reservoirs and lakes, affecting irrigation and agriculture as well as key water uses including hydropower and industry, and thus, the welfare of the residents. Integrating drought monitoring and seasonal forecasting provides efficient means of assessing impacts of climate variability and change, identifying vulnerabilities, and allowing for better adaptation measures not only for medium- and long-term climate change but also for extremes of the interannual climate variability, particularly droughts.

Workplace Drug Testing and Worker Drug Use

PubMed Central

Carpenter, Christopher S

2007-01-01

Objective To examine the nature and extent of the association between workplace drug testing and worker drug use. Data Sources Repeated cross-sections from the 2000 to 2001 National Household Surveys on Drug Abuse (NHSDA) and the 2002 National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH). Study Design Multivariate logistic regression models of the likelihood of marijuana use are estimated as a function of several different workplace drug policies, including drug testing. Specific questions about penalty severity and the likelihood of detection are used to further evaluate the nature of the association. Principal Findings Individuals whose employers perform drug tests are significantly less likely to report past month marijuana use, even after controlling for a wide array of worker and job characteristics. However, large negative associations are also found for variables indicating whether a firm has drug education, an employee assistance program, or a simple written policy about substance use. Accounting for these other workplace characteristics reduces—but does not eliminate—the testing differential. Frequent testing and severe penalties reduce the likelihood that workers use marijuana. Conclusions Previous studies have interpreted the large negative correlation between workplace drug testing and employee substance use as representing a causal deterrent effect of drug testing. Our results using more comprehensive data suggest that these estimates have been slightly overstated due to omitted variables bias. The overall pattern of results remains largely consistent with the hypothesis that workplace drug testing deters worker drug use. PMID:17362218

Metabolomics-based chemotaxonomy of root endophytic fungi for natural products discovery.

PubMed

Maciá-Vicente, Jose G; Shi, Yan-Ni; Cheikh-Ali, Zakaria; Grün, Peter; Glynou, Kyriaki; Kia, Sevda Haghi; Piepenbring, Meike; Bode, Helge B

2018-03-01

Fungi are prolific producers of natural products routinely screened for biotechnological applications, and those living endophytically within plants attract particular attention because of their purported chemical diversity. However, the harnessing of their biosynthetic potential is hampered by a large and often cryptic phylogenetic and ecological diversity, coupled with a lack of large-scale natural products' dereplication studies. To guide efforts to discover new chemistries among root-endophytic fungi, we analyzed the natural products produced by 822 strains using an untargeted UPLC-ESI-MS/MS-based approach and linked the patterns of chemical features to fungal lineages. We detected 17 809 compounds of which 7951 were classified in 1992 molecular families, whereas the remaining were considered unique chemistries. Our approach allowed to annotate 1191 compounds with different degrees of accuracy, many of which had known fungal origins. Approximately 61% of the compounds were specific of a fungal order, and differences were observed across lineages in the diversity and characteristics of their chemistries. Chemical profiles also showed variable chemosystematic values across lineages, ranging from relative homogeneity to high heterogeneity among related fungi. Our results provide an extensive resource to dereplicate fungal natural products and may assist future discovery programs by providing a guide for the selection of target fungi. © 2018 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Biostatistics Series Module 10: Brief Overview of Multivariate Methods.

PubMed

Hazra, Avijit; Gogtay, Nithya

2017-01-01

Multivariate analysis refers to statistical techniques that simultaneously look at three or more variables in relation to the subjects under investigation with the aim of identifying or clarifying the relationships between them. These techniques have been broadly classified as dependence techniques, which explore the relationship between one or more dependent variables and their independent predictors, and interdependence techniques, that make no such distinction but treat all variables equally in a search for underlying relationships. Multiple linear regression models a situation where a single numerical dependent variable is to be predicted from multiple numerical independent variables. Logistic regression is used when the outcome variable is dichotomous in nature. The log-linear technique models count type of data and can be used to analyze cross-tabulations where more than two variables are included. Analysis of covariance is an extension of analysis of variance (ANOVA), in which an additional independent variable of interest, the covariate, is brought into the analysis. It tries to examine whether a difference persists after "controlling" for the effect of the covariate that can impact the numerical dependent variable of interest. Multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) is a multivariate extension of ANOVA used when multiple numerical dependent variables have to be incorporated in the analysis. Interdependence techniques are more commonly applied to psychometrics, social sciences and market research. Exploratory factor analysis and principal component analysis are related techniques that seek to extract from a larger number of metric variables, a smaller number of composite factors or components, which are linearly related to the original variables. Cluster analysis aims to identify, in a large number of cases, relatively homogeneous groups called clusters, without prior information about the groups. The calculation intensive nature of multivariate analysis has so far precluded most researchers from using these techniques routinely. The situation is now changing with wider availability, and increasing sophistication of statistical software and researchers should no longer shy away from exploring the applications of multivariate methods to real-life data sets.

Multi-model attribution of upper-ocean temperature changes using an isothermal approach.

PubMed

Weller, Evan; Min, Seung-Ki; Palmer, Matthew D; Lee, Donghyun; Yim, Bo Young; Yeh, Sang-Wook

2016-06-01

Both air-sea heat exchanges and changes in ocean advection have contributed to observed upper-ocean warming most evident in the late-twentieth century. However, it is predominantly via changes in air-sea heat fluxes that human-induced climate forcings, such as increasing greenhouse gases, and other natural factors such as volcanic aerosols, have influenced global ocean heat content. The present study builds on previous work using two different indicators of upper-ocean temperature changes for the detection of both anthropogenic and natural external climate forcings. Using simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, we compare mean temperatures above a fixed isotherm with the more widely adopted approach of using a fixed depth. We present the first multi-model ensemble detection and attribution analysis using the fixed isotherm approach to robustly detect both anthropogenic and natural external influences on upper-ocean temperatures. Although contributions from multidecadal natural variability cannot be fully removed, both the large multi-model ensemble size and properties of the isotherm analysis reduce internal variability of the ocean, resulting in better observation-model comparison of temperature changes since the 1950s. We further show that the high temporal resolution afforded by the isotherm analysis is required to detect natural external influences such as volcanic cooling events in the upper-ocean because the radiative effect of volcanic forcings is short-lived.

Multi-model attribution of upper-ocean temperature changes using an isothermal approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weller, Evan; Min, Seung-Ki; Palmer, Matthew D.; Lee, Donghyun; Yim, Bo Young; Yeh, Sang-Wook

2016-06-01

Both air-sea heat exchanges and changes in ocean advection have contributed to observed upper-ocean warming most evident in the late-twentieth century. However, it is predominantly via changes in air-sea heat fluxes that human-induced climate forcings, such as increasing greenhouse gases, and other natural factors such as volcanic aerosols, have influenced global ocean heat content. The present study builds on previous work using two different indicators of upper-ocean temperature changes for the detection of both anthropogenic and natural external climate forcings. Using simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, we compare mean temperatures above a fixed isotherm with the more widely adopted approach of using a fixed depth. We present the first multi-model ensemble detection and attribution analysis using the fixed isotherm approach to robustly detect both anthropogenic and natural external influences on upper-ocean temperatures. Although contributions from multidecadal natural variability cannot be fully removed, both the large multi-model ensemble size and properties of the isotherm analysis reduce internal variability of the ocean, resulting in better observation-model comparison of temperature changes since the 1950s. We further show that the high temporal resolution afforded by the isotherm analysis is required to detect natural external influences such as volcanic cooling events in the upper-ocean because the radiative effect of volcanic forcings is short-lived.

Effects of natural current pH variability on the sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus larvae development and settlement.

PubMed

García, Eliseba; Clemente, Sabrina; Hernández, José Carlos

2018-08-01

One of the most important environmental factors controlling the distribution, physiology, morphology and behaviour of marine invertebrates is ocean pH. In the last decade, the effects of decreasing ocean pH as a result of climate change processes (i.e. ocean acidification) on marine organisms have been target of much research. However, the effects of natural pH variability in the species' niche have been largely neglected. Marine coastal habitats are characterized by a high environmental variability and, in some cases, organisms are already coping with pH values predicted by the end of the century. It is thought that because of adaptation or acclimation to natural environmental variability, intertidal species may have some resilience to future changes. In this study, we explored the sensitivities of the sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus during its larvae development and settlement undergoing two different daily pH frequencies (12 h fluctuation from 7.7 to 8.1 units of pH, and constant pH treatment of 8.1 units of pH) that have been currently recorded in the sampling region (Canary Islands). Results showed that, despite larvae development was slightly enhanced by moderated fluctuating pH regimes, P. lividus larva was able to develop normally in both, fluctuating and constant, pH environments. Results of the settlement experiment showed very clear patterns since postlarvae settlement was only successful when a covering of algae was added, regardless of the pH fluctuation applied. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Observed warming over northern South America has an anthropogenic origin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barkhordarian, Armineh; von Storch, Hans; Zorita, Eduardo; Loikith, Paul C.; Mechoso, Carlos R.

2017-10-01

We investigate whether the recently observed trends in daily maximum and minimum near-surface air temperature (Tmax and Tmin, respectively) over South America (SA) are consistent with the simulated response of Tmin and Tmax to anthropogenic forcing. Results indicate that the recently observed warming in the dry seasons is well beyond the range of natural (internal) variability. In the wet season the natural modes of variability explain a substantial portion of Tmin and Tmax variability. We demonstrate that the large-scale component of greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing is detectable in dry-seasonal warming. However, none of the global and regional climate change projections reproduce the observed warming of up to 0.6 K/Decade in Tmax in 1983-2012 over northern SA during the austral spring (SON). Thus, besides the global manifestation of GHG forcing, other external drivers have an imprint. Using aerosols-only forcing simulations, our results provide evidence that anthropogenic aerosols also have a detectable influence in SON and that the indirect effect of aerosols on cloud's lifetime is more compatible with the observed record. In addition, there is an increasing trend in the observed incoming solar radiation over northern SA in SON, which is larger than expected from natural (internal) variability alone. We further show that in the dry seasons the spread of projected trends based on the RCP4.5 scenario derived from 30 CMIP5 models encompasses the observed area-averaged trends in Tmin and Tmax. This may imply that the observed excessive warming in the dry seasons serve as an illustration of plausible future expected change in the region.

Regeneration in bottomland forest canopy gaps six years after variable retention harvests to enhance wildlife habitat

USGS Publications Warehouse

Twedt, Daniel J.; Somershoe, Scott G.; Guldin, James M.

2013-01-01

To promote desired forest conditions that enhance wildlife habitat in bottomland forests, managers prescribed and implemented variable-retention harvest, a.k.a. wildlife forestry, in four stands on Tensas River National Wildlife Refuge, LA. These treatments created canopy openings (gaps) within which managers sought to regenerate shade-intolerant trees. Six years after prescribed harvests, we assessed regeneration in 41 canopy gaps and 4 large (>0.5-ha) patch cut openings that resulted from treatments and in 21 natural canopy gaps on 2 unharvested control stands. Mean gap area of anthropogenic gaps (582 m²) was greater than that of natural gaps (262 m²). Sweetgum (Liquidambar styraciflua) and red oaks (Quercus nigra, Q. nuttallii, and Q. phellos) were common in anthropogenic gaps, whereas elms (Ulmus spp.) and sugarberry (Celtis laevigata) were numerous in natural gaps. We recommend harvest prescriptions include gaps with diameter >25 m, because the proportion of shade-intolerant regeneration increased with gap area up to 500 m². The proportion of shade-intolerant definitive gap fillers (individuals likely to occupy the canopy) increased with gap area: 35 percent in natural gaps, 54 percent in anthropogenic gaps, and 84 percent in patch cuts. Sweetgum, green ash (Fraxinus pennsylvanica), and red oaks were common definitive gap fillers.

Salient in space, salient in time: Fixation probability predicts fixation duration during natural scene viewing.

PubMed

Einhäuser, Wolfgang; Nuthmann, Antje

2016-09-01

During natural scene viewing, humans typically attend and fixate selected locations for about 200-400 ms. Two variables characterize such "overt" attention: the probability of a location being fixated, and the fixation's duration. Both variables have been widely researched, but little is known about their relation. We use a two-step approach to investigate the relation between fixation probability and duration. In the first step, we use a large corpus of fixation data. We demonstrate that fixation probability (empirical salience) predicts fixation duration across different observers and tasks. Linear mixed-effects modeling shows that this relation is explained neither by joint dependencies on simple image features (luminance, contrast, edge density) nor by spatial biases (central bias). In the second step, we experimentally manipulate some of these features. We find that fixation probability from the corpus data still predicts fixation duration for this new set of experimental data. This holds even if stimuli are deprived of low-level images features, as long as higher level scene structure remains intact. Together, this shows a robust relation between fixation duration and probability, which does not depend on simple image features. Moreover, the study exemplifies the combination of empirical research on a large corpus of data with targeted experimental manipulations.

Intraseasonal and Interannual Variability of Mars Present Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Bridger, Alison F. C.; Haberle, Robert M.

1996-01-01

This is a Final Report for a Joint Research Interchange (JRI) between NASA Ames Research Center and San Jose State University, Department of Meteorology. The focus of this JRI has been to investigate the nature of intraseasonal and interannual variability of Mars'present climate. We have applied a three-dimensional climate model based on the full hydrostatic primitive equations to determine the spatial, but primarily, the temporal structures of the planet's large-scale circulation as it evolves during a given seasonal advance, and, over multi-annual cycles. The particular climate model applies simplified physical parameterizations and is computationally efficient. It could thus easily be integrated in a perpetual season or advancing season configuration, as well as over many Mars years. We have assessed both high and low-frequency components of the circulation (i.e., motions having periods of Omicron(2-10 days) or greater than Omicron(10 days), respectively). Results from this investigation have explored the basic issue whether Mars' climate system is naturally 'chaotic' associated with nonlinear interactions of the large-scale circulation-regardless of any allowance for year-to-year variations in external forcing mechanisms. Titles of papers presented at scientific conferences and a manuscript to be submitted to the scientific literature are provided. An overview of a areas for further investigation is also presented.

Do Offshore Wind Farms Influence Marine Primary Production?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tweddle, J. F.; Murray, R. B. O.; Gubbins, M.; Scott, B. E.

2016-02-01

Primary producers (phytoplankton) form the basis of marine food-webs, supporting production of higher trophic levels, and act as a sink of CO2. We considered the impact of proposed large scale offshore wind farms in moderately deep waters (> 45 m) off the east coast of Scotland on rates of primary production. A 2 stage modelling process was used, employing state-of-the-art 3-D hydrographic models with the ability to capture flow at the spatial resolution of 10 m combined with 1-D vertical modelling using 7 years of local forcing data. Through influencing the strength of stratification via changes in current flow, large (100 m) modelled wind turbine foundations had a significant effect on primary producers, consistently reducing total annual primary production, although within the range of natural interannual variability. The percentage reduction was largest over submarine banks less than 54 m in depth, and was outside the range of natural interannual variability. Smaller (10 m) turbine foundations had no discernible effect on total annual primary production. The results indicate that smaller foundations should be favored as a mitigation measure, in terms of effects on primary production, and this type of analysis should be considered within sectoral planning and licensing processes for future renewable energy developments.

Southern Hemisphere extratropical circulation: Recent trends and natural variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Jordan L.; Waugh, Darryn W.; Gnanadesikan, Anand

2015-07-01

Changes in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), Southern Hemisphere (SH) westerly jet location, and magnitude are linked with changes in ocean circulation along with ocean heat and carbon uptake. Recent trends have been observed in these fields but not much is known about the natural variability. Here we aim to quantify the natural variability of the SH extratropical circulation by using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) preindustrial control model runs and compare with the observed trends in SAM, jet magnitude, and jet location. We show that trends in SAM are due partly to external forcing but are not outside the natural variability as described by these models. Trends in jet location and magnitude, however, lie outside the unforced natural variability but can be explained by a combination of natural variability and the ensemble mean forced trend. These results indicate that trends in these three diagnostics cannot be used interchangeably.

Monitoring of oceanographic properties of Glacier Bay, Alaska 2004

USGS Publications Warehouse

Madison, Erica N.; Etherington, Lisa L.

2005-01-01

Glacier Bay is a recently (300 years ago) deglaciated fjord estuarine system that has multiple sills, very deep basins, tidewater glaciers, and many streams. Glacier Bay experiences a large amount of runoff, high sedimentation, and large tidal variations. High freshwater discharge due to snow and ice melt and the presence of the tidewater glaciers makes the bay extremely cold. There are many small- and large-scale mixing and upwelling zones at sills, glacial faces, and streams. The complex topography and strong currents lead to highly variable salinity, temperature, sediment, primary productivity, light penetration, stratification levels, and current patterns within a small area. The oceanographic patterns within Glacier Bay drive a large portion of the spatial and temporal variability of the ecosystem. It has been widely recognized by scientists and resource managers in Glacier Bay that a program to monitor oceanographic patterns is essential for understanding the marine ecosystem and to differentiate between anthropogenic disturbance and natural variation. This year’s sampling marks the 12th continuous year of monitoring the oceanographic conditions at 23 stations along the primary axes within Glacier Bay, AK, making this a very unique and valuable data set in terms of its spatial and temporal coverage.

Stress Response and Cognitive Performance Modulation in Classroom versus Natural Environments: A Quasi-Experimental Pilot Study with Children.

PubMed

Mygind, Lærke; Stevenson, Matt P; Liebst, Lasse S; Konvalinka, Ivana; Bentsen, Peter

2018-05-28

Stress during childhood can have mental and somatic health influences that track throughout life. Previous research attributes stress-reducing effects to natural environments, but has mainly focused on adults and often following leisurely relaxation in natural environments. This pilot study explores the impact of natural environments on stress response during rest and mental load and cognitive performance in 47 children aged 10⁻12 years in a school context. Heart rate variability measures indexing tonic, event, and phasic vagal tone and attention scores were compared across classroom and natural environments. Tonic vagal tone was higher in the natural environment than the classrooms, but no differences were found in event or phasic vagal tone or cognitive performance measures. These findings suggest a situational aspect of the conditions under which natural environments may give rise to stress-buffering influences. Further research is warranted to understand the potential benefits in a real-life context, in particular with respect to the underpinning mechanisms and effects of accumulated exposure over time in settings where children spend large proportions of time in natural environments.

Natural streamflow simulation for two largest river basins in Poland: a baseline for identification of flow alterations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piniewski, Mikołaj

2016-05-01

The objective of this study was to apply a previously developed large-scale and high-resolution SWAT model of the Vistula and the Odra basins, calibrated with the focus of natural flow simulation, in order to assess the impact of three different dam reservoirs on streamflow using the Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA). A tailored spatial calibration approach was designed, in which calibration was focused on a large set of relatively small non-nested sub-catchments with semi-natural flow regime. These were classified into calibration clusters based on the flow statistics similarity. After performing calibration and validation that gave overall positive results, the calibrated parameter values were transferred to the remaining part of the basins using an approach based on hydrological similarity of donor and target catchments. The calibrated model was applied in three case studies with the purpose of assessing the effect of dam reservoirs (Włocławek, Siemianówka and Czorsztyn Reservoirs) on streamflow alteration. Both the assessment based on gauged streamflow (Before-After design) and the one based on simulated natural streamflow showed large alterations in selected flow statistics related to magnitude, duration, high and low flow pulses and rate of change. Some benefits of using a large-scale and high-resolution hydrological model for the assessment of streamflow alteration include: (1) providing an alternative or complementary approach to the classical Before-After designs, (2) isolating the climate variability effect from the dam (or any other source of alteration) effect, (3) providing a practical tool that can be applied at a range of spatial scales over large area such as a country, in a uniform way. Thus, presented approach can be applied for designing more natural flow regimes, which is crucial for river and floodplain ecosystem restoration in the context of the European Union's policy on environmental flows.

Natural variability of pCO2 and pH in the Atlantic and Pacific coastal margins of the U.S

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutton, A. J.; Sabine, C. L.; Feely, R. A.; Newton, J.; Salisbury, J.; Vandemark, D. C.; Musielewicz, S. B.; Maenner-Jones, S.; Bott, R.; Lawrence-Slavas, N.

2011-12-01

The discovery that seawater chemistry is changing as a result of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, referred to as "ocean acidification", has prompted a large effort to understand how this changing chemistry will impact marine life. Changes in carbon chemistry have been documented in the open ocean; however, in dynamic coastal systems where many marine species live, ocean acidification and the natural biogeochemical variability that organisms are currently exposed to are poorly quantified. In 2010 we began equipping coastal moorings currently measuring pCO2 with pH and other biogeochemical sensors to measure ocean acidification parameters at 3 hour intervals in the surface water. Here we present the magnitude and diurnal to seasonal variability of pCO2 and pH during the first year of observations at 2 sites in the Atlantic and Pacific coastal margins of the U.S.: the Gulf of Maine and outer coast of Washington state. Both the magnitude and range of pCO2 and pH values were much greater at the coastal moorings compared to the open ocean mooring at Ocean Station Papa in the North Pacific and also varied between the two coastal mooring sites. We observed maximum pCO2 values in coastal waters exceeding predicted values for the open ocean at 2x pre-industrial CO2 levels. The range of pCO2 and pH values during this time series was approximately 4 times the range observed at open ocean mooring Papa (2007-2011 time series). In many cases, large variance was observed at short time scales, with values fluctuating more than 200 μatm pCO2 and 0.2 pH between 3-hour cycles. These types of observations are critical for understanding how ocean acidification will manifest in naturally dynamic coastal systems and for informing the experimental design of species response studies that aim to mimic carbon chemistry experienced by coastal marine organisms.

Natural bounds on herbivorous coral reef fishes

PubMed Central

Hoey, Andrew S.; Williams, Gareth J.; Williams, Ivor D.

2016-01-01

Humans are an increasingly dominant driver of Earth's biological communities, but differentiating human impacts from natural drivers of ecosystem state is crucial. Herbivorous fish play a key role in maintaining coral dominance on coral reefs, and are widely affected by human activities, principally fishing. We assess the relative importance of human and biophysical (habitat and oceanographic) drivers on the biomass of five herbivorous functional groups among 33 islands in the central and western Pacific Ocean. Human impacts were clear for some, but not all, herbivore groups. Biomass of browsers, large excavators, and of all herbivores combined declined rapidly with increasing human population density, whereas grazers, scrapers, and detritivores displayed no relationship. Sea-surface temperature had significant but opposing effects on the biomass of detritivores (positive) and browsers (negative). Similarly, the biomass of scrapers, grazers, and detritivores correlated with habitat structural complexity; however, relationships were group specific. Finally, the biomass of browsers and large excavators was related to island geomorphology, both peaking on low-lying islands and atolls. The substantial variability in herbivore populations explained by natural biophysical drivers highlights the need for locally appropriate management targets on coral reefs. PMID:27881745

Large-scale Periodic Variability of the Wind of the Wolf-Rayet Star WR 1 (HD 4004)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chené, A.-N.; St-Louis, N.

2010-06-01

We present the results of an intensive photometric and spectroscopic monitoring campaign of the WN4 Wolf-Rayet (WR) star WR 1 = HD 4004. Our broadband V photometry covering a timespan of 91 days shows variability with a period of P = 16.9+0.6 -0.3 days. The same period is also found in our spectral data. The light curve is non-sinusoidal with hints of a gradual change in its shape as a function of time. The photometric variations nevertheless remain coherent over several cycles and we estimate that the coherence timescale of the light curve is of the order of 60 days. The spectroscopy shows large-scale line-profile variability which can be interpreted as excess emission peaks moving from one side of the profile to the other on a timescale of several days. Although we cannot unequivocally exclude the unlikely possibility that WR 1 is a binary, we propose that the nature of the variability we have found strongly suggests that it is due to the presence in the wind of the WR star of large-scale structures, most likely corotating interaction regions (CIRs), which are predicted to arise in inherently unstable radiatively driven winds when they are perturbed at their base. We also suggest that variability observed in WR 6, WR 134, and WR 137 is of the same nature. Finally, assuming that the period of CIRs is related to the rotational period, we estimate the rotation rate of the four stars for which sufficient monitoring has been carried out, i.e., v rot = 6.5, 40, 70, and 275 km s-1 for WR 1, WR 6, WR 134, and WR 137, respectively. Based on observations obtained at the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope (CFHT) which is operated by the National Research Council of Canada, the Institut National des Sciences de l'Univers of the Centre National de Recherche Scientifique of France, and the University of Hawaii. Also based on observations obtained at the Observatoire du Mont Mégantic with is operated by the Centre de Recherche en Astrophysique du Québec and the Observatoire de Haute-Provence which is operated by the Institut National des Sciences de l'Univers of the Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique of France.

Characterizing the nature and variability of avalanche hazard in western Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shandro, Bret; Haegeli, Pascal

2018-04-01

The snow and avalanche climate types maritime, continental and transitional are well established and have been used extensively to characterize the general nature of avalanche hazard at a location, study inter-seasonal and large-scale spatial variabilities and provide context for the design of avalanche safety operations. While researchers and practitioners have an experience-based understanding of the avalanche hazard associated with the three climate types, no studies have described the hazard character of an avalanche climate in detail. Since the 2009/2010 winter, the consistent use of Statham et al. (2017) conceptual model of avalanche hazard in public avalanche bulletins in Canada has created a new quantitative record of avalanche hazard that offers novel opportunities for addressing this knowledge gap. We identified typical daily avalanche hazard situations using self-organizing maps (SOMs) and then calculated seasonal prevalence values of these situations. This approach produces a concise characterization that is conducive to statistical analyses, but still provides a comprehensive picture that is informative for avalanche risk management due to its link to avalanche problem types. Hazard situation prevalence values for individual seasons, elevations bands and forecast regions provide unprecedented insight into the inter-seasonal and spatial variability of avalanche hazard in western Canada.

Five species, many genotypes, broad phenotypic diversity: When agronomy meets functional ecology.

PubMed

Prieto, Ivan; Litrico, Isabelle; Violle, Cyrille; Barre, Philippe

2017-01-01

Current ecological theory can provide insight into the causes and impacts of plant domestication. However, just how domestication has impacted intraspecific genetic variability (ITV) is unknown. We used 50 ecotypes and 35 cultivars from five grassland species to explore how selection drives functional trait coordination and genetic differentiation. We quantified the extent of genetic diversity among different sets of functional traits and determined how much genetic diversity has been generated within populations of natural ecotypes and selected cultivars. In general, the cultivars were larger (e.g., greater height, faster growth rates) and had larger and thinner leaves (greater SLA). We found large (average 63%) and trait-dependent (ranging from 14% for LNC to 95.8% for growth rate) genetic variability. The relative extent of genetic variability was greater for whole-plant than for organ-level traits. This pattern was consistent within ecotypes and within cultivars. However, ecotypes presented greater ITV variability. The results indicated that genetic diversity is large in domesticated species with contrasting levels of heritability among functional traits and that selection for high yield has led to indirect selection of some associated leaf traits. These findings open the way to define which target traits should be the focus in selection programs, especially in the context of community-level selection. © 2017 Botanical Society of America.

Deconstructing an Atmospheric Model: Variability and Response, Unstable Periodic Orbits, and the Fluctuation-Dissipation Theorem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gritsun, Andrei; Lucarini, Valerio

2016-04-01

Unstable periodic orbits (UPOs) provide the so-called skeletal dynamics of a sufficiently well-behaved chaotic dynamical system and provide a powerful tool for relating the response of the system to its variability. In fact, UPOs constitute natural modes of variability of the system, and resonant behaviour of the response of the system to can be associated to good correspondence between the geometry of one UPO and of the forcing term and between their periodicities. We have here analyzed a simple barotropic model of the atmosphere and constructed and found algorithmically a large number of UPOs. We have then studied the change in the climate resulting from changes in the forcing, in the orography, and in the Eckman friction. The most interesting result is the presence of a strong resonance in the orographic response on time scales of the order of about 3 days, corresponding to forced waves. Interestingly, such a spectral feature is entirely absent from the natural variability of the system and correspond to the excitation of a specific group of UPOs. This clarifies the fact that, as opposed to the case of quasi-equilibrium systems, it is far from obvious to associate forced and free variability in the spirit of the fluctuation-dissipation theorem (FDT). Reassuringly, ysing the complementary point of view of covariant Lyapunov vectors, we discover that the forcing projects substantially in the stable direction of the flow, which is exactly the mathematical setting under which the FDT cannot be applied.

Reconstructed storm tracks reveal three centuries of changing moisture delivery to North America

PubMed Central

Wise, Erika K.; Dannenberg, Matthew P.

2017-01-01

Moisture delivery to western North America is closely linked to variability in the westerly storm tracks of midlatitude cyclones, which are, in turn, modified by larger-scale features such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation system. Instrumental and modeling data suggest that extratropical storm tracks may be intensifying and shifting poleward due to anthropogenic climate change, but it is difficult to separate recent trends from natural variability because of the large amount of decadal and longer variation in storm tracks and their limited instrumental record. We reconstruct cool-season, midlatitude Pacific storm-track position and intensity from 1693 to 1995 CE using existing tree-ring chronologies along with a network of newly developed chronologies from the U.S. Pacific Northwest, where small variations in storm-track position can have a major influence on hydroclimate patterns. Our results show high interannual-to-multidecadal variability in storm-track position and intensity over the past 303 years, with spectral signatures characteristic of tropical and northern Pacific influences. Comparison with reconstructions of precipitation and tropical sea surface temperature confirms the relationship between shifting drought patterns in the Pacific Northwest and storm-track variability through time and demonstrates the long-term influence of El Niño. These results allow us to place recent storm-track changes in the context of decadal and multidecadal fluctuations across the long-term record, showing that recent changes in storm-track intensity likely represent a warming-related increase amplified by natural decadal variability. PMID:28630900

Reconstructed storm tracks reveal three centuries of changing moisture delivery to North America.

PubMed

Wise, Erika K; Dannenberg, Matthew P

2017-06-01

Moisture delivery to western North America is closely linked to variability in the westerly storm tracks of midlatitude cyclones, which are, in turn, modified by larger-scale features such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation system. Instrumental and modeling data suggest that extratropical storm tracks may be intensifying and shifting poleward due to anthropogenic climate change, but it is difficult to separate recent trends from natural variability because of the large amount of decadal and longer variation in storm tracks and their limited instrumental record. We reconstruct cool-season, midlatitude Pacific storm-track position and intensity from 1693 to 1995 CE using existing tree-ring chronologies along with a network of newly developed chronologies from the U.S. Pacific Northwest, where small variations in storm-track position can have a major influence on hydroclimate patterns. Our results show high interannual-to-multidecadal variability in storm-track position and intensity over the past 303 years, with spectral signatures characteristic of tropical and northern Pacific influences. Comparison with reconstructions of precipitation and tropical sea surface temperature confirms the relationship between shifting drought patterns in the Pacific Northwest and storm-track variability through time and demonstrates the long-term influence of El Niño. These results allow us to place recent storm-track changes in the context of decadal and multidecadal fluctuations across the long-term record, showing that recent changes in storm-track intensity likely represent a warming-related increase amplified by natural decadal variability.

Microsatellite variation reveals weak genetic structure and retention of genetic variability in threatened Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) within a Snake River watershed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Neville, Helen; Issacs, Frank B.; Thurow, Russel; Dunham, J.B.; Rieman, B.

2007-01-01

Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) have been central to the development of management concepts associated with evolutionarily significant units (ESUs), yet there are still relatively few studies of genetic diversity within threatened and endangered ESUs for salmon or other species. We analyzed genetic variation at 10 microsatellite loci to evaluate spatial population structure and genetic variability in indigenous Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) across a large wilderness basin within a Snake River ESU. Despite dramatic 20th century declines in abundance, these populations retained robust levels of genetic variability. No significant genetic bottlenecks were found, although the bottleneck metric (M ratio) was significantly correlated with average population size and variability. Weak but significant genetic structure existed among tributaries despite evidence of high levels of gene flow, with the strongest genetic differentiation mirroring the physical segregation of fish from two sub-basins. Despite the more recent colonization of one sub-basin and differences between sub-basins in the natural level of fragmentation, gene diversity and genetic differentiation were similar between sub-basins. Various factors, such as the (unknown) genetic contribution of precocial males, genetic compensation, lack of hatchery influence, and high levels of current gene flow may have contributed to the persistence of genetic variability in this system in spite of historical declines. This unique study of indigenous Chinook salmon underscores the importance of maintaining natural populations in interconnected and complex habitats to minimize losses of genetic diversity within ESUs.

An integrated, indicator framework for assessing large-scale variations and change in seasonal timing and phenology (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Betancourt, J. L.; Weltzin, J. F.

2013-12-01

As part of an effort to develop an Indicator System for the National Climate Assessment (NCA), the Seasonality and Phenology Indicators Technical Team (SPITT) proposed an integrated, continental-scale framework for understanding and tracking seasonal timing in physical and biological systems. The framework shares several metrics with the EPA's National Climate Change Indicators. The SPITT framework includes a comprehensive suite of national indicators to track conditions, anticipate vulnerabilities, and facilitate intervention or adaptation to the extent possible. Observed, modeled, and forecasted seasonal timing metrics can inform a wide spectrum of decisions on federal, state, and private lands in the U.S., and will be pivotal for international efforts to mitigation and adaptation. Humans use calendars both to understand the natural world and to plan their lives. Although the seasons are familiar concepts, we lack a comprehensive understanding of how variability arises in the timing of seasonal transitions in the atmosphere, and how variability and change translate and propagate through hydrological, ecological and human systems. For example, the contributions of greenhouse warming and natural variability to secular trends in seasonal timing are difficult to disentangle, including earlier spring transitions from winter (strong westerlies) to summer (weak easterlies) patterns of atmospheric circulation; shifts in annual phasing of daily temperature means and extremes; advanced timing of snow and ice melt and soil thaw at higher latitudes and elevations; and earlier start and longer duration of the growing and fire seasons. The SPITT framework aims to relate spatiotemporal variability in surface climate to (1) large-scale modes of natural climate variability and greenhouse gas-driven climatic change, and (2) spatiotemporal variability in hydrological, ecological and human responses and impacts. The hierarchical framework relies on ground and satellite observations, and includes metrics of surface climate seasonality, seasonality of snow and ice, land surface phenology, ecosystem disturbance seasonality, and organismal phenology. Recommended metrics met the following requirements: (a) easily measured by day-of-year, number of days, or in the case of species migrations, by the latitude of the observation on a given date; (b) are observed or can be calculated across a high density of locations in many different regions of the U.S.; and (c) unambiguously describe both spatial and temporal variability and trends in seasonal timing that are climatically driven. The SPITT framework is meant to provide climatic and strategic guidance for the growth and application of seasonal timing and phenological monitoring efforts. The hope is that additional national indicators based on observed phenology, or evidence-based algorithms calibrated with observational data, will evolve with sustained and broad-scale monitoring of climatically sensitive species and ecological processes.

Simulated natural hydrologic regime of an intermountain playa conservation site

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sanderson, J.S.; Kotliar, N.B.; Steingraeber, D.A.; Browne, C.

2008-01-01

An intermountain playa wetland preserve in Colorado's San Luis Valley was studied to assess how its current hydrologic function compares to its natural hydrologic regime. Current hydrologic conditions were quantified, and on-site effects of off-site water use were assessed. A water-budget model was developed to simulate an unaltered (i.e., natural) hydrologic regime, and simulated natural conditions were compared to observed conditions. From 1998-2002, observed stream inflows accounted for ??? 80% of total annual water inputs. No ground water discharged to the wetland. Evapotranspiration (ET) accounted for ??? 69% of total annual water loss. Simulated natural conditions differed substantially from current altered conditions with respect to depth, variability, and frequency of flooding. During 1998-2002, observed monthly mean surface-water depth was 65% lower than under simulated natural conditions. Observed monthly variability in water depth range from 129% greater (May) to 100% less (September and October) than simulated. As observed, the wetland dried completely (i.e., was ephemeral) in all years; as simulated, the wetland was ephemeral in two of five years. For the period 1915-2002, the simulated wetland was inundated continuously for as long as 16 years and nine months. The large differences in observed and simulated surface-water dynamics resulted from differences between altered and simulated unaltered stream inflows. The maximum and minimum annual total stream inflows observed from 1998-2005 were 3.1 ?? 106 m3 and 0 m3, respectively, versus 15.5 ?? 106 m3 and 3.2 ?? 106 m3 under simulated natural conditions from 1915-2002. The maximum simulated inflow was 484% greater than observed. These data indicate that the current hydrologic regime of this intermountain playa differs significantly from its natural hydrologic regime, which has important implications for planning and assessing conservation success. ?? 2008, The Society of Wetland Scientists.

Modeling climate change impacts on groundwater resources using transient stochastic climatic scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goderniaux, Pascal; BrouyèRe, Serge; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Burton, Aidan; Fowler, Hayley J.; Orban, Philippe; Dassargues, Alain

2011-12-01

Several studies have highlighted the potential negative impact of climate change on groundwater reserves, but additional work is required to help water managers plan for future changes. In particular, existing studies provide projections for a stationary climate representative of the end of the century, although information is demanded for the near future. Such time-slice experiments fail to account for the transient nature of climatic changes over the century. Moreover, uncertainty linked to natural climate variability is not explicitly considered in previous studies. In this study we substantially improve upon the state-of-the-art by using a sophisticated transient weather generator in combination with an integrated surface-subsurface hydrological model (Geer basin, Belgium) developed with the finite element modeling software "HydroGeoSphere." This version of the weather generator enables the stochastic generation of large numbers of equiprobable climatic time series, representing transient climate change, and used to assess impacts in a probabilistic way. For the Geer basin, 30 equiprobable climate change scenarios from 2010 to 2085 have been generated for each of six different regional climate models (RCMs). Results show that although the 95% confidence intervals calculated around projected groundwater levels remain large, the climate change signal becomes stronger than that of natural climate variability by 2085. Additionally, the weather generator's ability to simulate transient climate change enabled the assessment of the likely time scale and associated uncertainty of a specific impact, providing managers with additional information when planning further investment. This methodology constitutes a real improvement in the field of groundwater projections under climate change conditions.

Modified nondestructive colorimetric method to evaluate the variability of oxygen diffusion rate through wine bottle closures.

PubMed

Brotto, Laura; Battistutta, Franco; Tat, Lara; Comuzzo, Piergiorgio; Zironi, Roberto

2010-03-24

Some modifications to a previous nondestructive colorimetric method that permits evaluation of the oxygen diffusion rate through wine closures were proposed. The method is based on the reaction of indigo carmine solution with oxygen and the tristimulus measurement of the consequent color change. Simplified preparation and measurement procedures were set up, allowing the analysis of a large number of samples simultaneously. The method was applied to the evaluation of the variability within the lot of 20 different types of stoppers (synthetic, produced by molding, and natural cork). The closures were tested at a storage temperature of 26 degrees C. With regard to oxygen permeability, the natural cork stopper showed a low homogeneity within the lot, especially during the first month after bottling, whereas the synthetic closure showed a greater steadiness in the performance. The limits of the colorimetric method were also analyzed, and three possible causes of degradation of the indigo carmine solution were identified: oxygen, light, and heat.

Solomon M. Hsiang Receives 2013 Science for Solutions Award: Citation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oppenheimer, Michael

2014-01-01

Solomon Hsiang is representative of a new generation in the geosciences community, whose work spans several disciplines, drawing on methods and concepts from far outside the traditional physical science domain in order to make progress on difficult questions at the intersection of natural science, social science, and public policy. Broadly speaking, by examining how humanity has responded to climate variability and change in the distant and recent past, Sol's research elucidates the question of how humanity may respond to a changing climate in the future. Combining large, independent sets of social science, meteorological, and climatological data and analyzing them with tools more common in microeconomics than natural science, Sol, still at an early stage of his career, has made critical contributions to an incipient revolution in our understanding of the sensitivity and adaptability of humans and their social arrangements to climate variability and change. Such insights will greatly improve the information base from which effective public policy is developed.

The Primacy of Multidecadal to Centennial Variability Over Late Holocene Forced Change of the Asian Monsoon on the Southern Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Conroy, J. L.; Hudson, A. M.; Overpeck, J. T.; Liu, K. B.; Luo, W.; Cole, J. E.

2016-12-01

The nature of multidecadal to centennial variability of the Asian monsoon remains largely unknown. Here we use the sediment record from a closed-basin lake in southern Tibet, Ngamring Tso, to assess summer monsoon precipitation from 4100 cal yr BP to present. The first principal component of the Ngamring Tso grain size record correlates significantly with observed June-September precipitation. From CE 1940-2007, grain size decreased with increasing summer precipitation and increased with decreasing summer precipitation. Satellite images of Ngamring Tso suggest precipitation-induced changes in lake depth or area likely govern grain size variability. Prolonged periods of weak summer monsoon precipitation occurred from 2800-2600 cal yr BP, 2500-2300 cal yr BP, and 1600-400 cal yr BP. A trend toward increased summer precipitation began around 1000 cal yr BP, with above-average summer precipitation from 400 cal yr BP to present, peaking between 200-100 cal yr BP. Dry and wet periods are coincident with dry and wet periods in other south-central Tibetan lake sediment records and with regional proxies of the ISM and EASM, indicating south-central Tibet is influenced by both monsoon subsystems. 20th century precipitation variability in southern Tibet falls within the range of natural variability in the last 4100 years, and does not show a clear trend of increasing precipitation as projected by models. Instead, it appears that poorly understood internal modes of monsoon variability remained influential throughout the last 4100 years. Substantial multidecadal to centennial-scale variability will thus complicate our ability to project future anthropogenic changes in the region's monsoon precipitation.

Low-frequency variability of the Atlantic MOC in the eddying regime : the intrinsic component.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gregorio, S.; Penduff, T.; Barnier, B.; Molines, J.-M.; Le Sommer, J.

2012-04-01

A 327-year 1/4° global ocean/sea-ice simulation has been produced by the DRAKKAR ocean modeling consortium. This simulation is forced by a repeated seasonal atmospheric forcing but nevertheless exhibits a substantial low-frequency variability (at interannual and longer timescales), which is therefore of intrinsic origin. This nonlinearly-generated intrinsic variability is almost absent from the coarse-resolution (2°) version of this simulation. Comparing the 1/4° simulation with its fully-forced counterpart, Penduff et al. (2011) have shown that the low-frequency variability of local sea-level is largely generated by the ocean itself in eddying areas, rather than directly forced by the atmosphere. Using the same simulations, the present study quantifies the imprint of the intrinsic low-frequency variability on the Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) at interannual-to-decadal timescales in the Atlantic. We first compare the intrinsic and atmospherically-forced interannual variances of the Atlantic MOC calculated in geopotential coordinates. This analysis reveals substantial sources of intrinsic MOC variability in the South Atlantic (driven by the Agulhas mesoscale activity according to Biastoch et al. (2008)), but also in the North Atlantic. We extend our investigation to the MOC calculated in isopycnal coordinates, and identify regions in the basin where the water mass transformation exhibits low-frequency intrinsic variability. In this eddy-permitting regime, intrinsic processes are shown to generate about half the total (geopotential and isopycnal) MOC interannual variance in certain key regions of the Atlantic. This intrinsic variability is absent from 2° simulations. Penduff, T., Juza, M., Barnier, B., Zika, J., Dewar, W.K., Treguier, A.-M., Molines, J.-M., Audiffren, N., 2011: Sea-level expression of intrinsic and forced ocean variabilities at interannual time scales. J. Climate, 24, 5652-5670. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00077.1. Biastoch, A., Böning, C. W., Lutjeharms, J. R. E., 2008: Agulhas leakage dynamics affects decadal variability in Atlantic overturning circulation. Nature, 456, 489-492, doi: 10.1038/nature07426.

Gap formation and carbon cycling in the Brazilian Amazon: measurement using high-resolution optical remote sensing and studies in large forest plots

Treesearch

F. D. B. Espirito-Santo; M. M. Keller; E. Linder; R. C. Oliveira Junior; C. Pereira; C. G. Oliveira

2013-01-01

Background: The dynamics of gaps plays a role in the regimes of tree mortality, production of coarse woody debris (CWD) and the variability of light in the forest understory. Aims: To quantify the area affected by, and the carbon fluxes associated with, natural gap-phase disturbances in a tropical lowland evergreen rain forest by use of ground measurements and high-...

Emissions of CH4 from natural gas production in the United States using aircraft-based observations (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sweeney, C.; Ryerson, T. B.; Karion, A.; Peischl, J.; Petron, G.; Schnell, R. C.; Tsai, T.; Crosson, E.; Rella, C.; Trainer, M.; Frost, G. J.; Hardesty, R. M.; Montzka, S. A.; Dlugokencky, E. J.; Tans, P. P.

2013-12-01

New extraction technologies are making natural gas from shale and tight sand gas reservoirs in the United States (US) more accessible. As a result, the US has become the largest producer of natural gas in the world. This growth in natural gas production may result in increased leakage of methane, a potent greenhouse gas, offsetting the climate benefits of natural gas relative to other fossil fuels. Methane emissions from natural gas production are not well quantified because of the large variety of potential sources, the variability in production and operating practices, the uneven distribution of emitters, and a lack of verification of emission inventories with direct atmospheric measurements. Researchers at the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) have used simple mass balance approaches to estimate emissions of CH4 from several natural gas and oil plays across the US. We will summarize the results of the available aircraft and ground-based atmospheric emissions estimates to better understand the spatial and temporal distribution of these emissions in the US.

Emissions of CH4 from natural gas production in the United States using aircraft-based observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sweeney, Colm; Karion, Anna; Petron, Gabrielle; Ryerson, Thomas; Peischl, Jeff; Trainer, Michael; Rella, Chris; Hardesty, Michael; Crosson, Eric; Montzka, Stephen; Tans, Pieter; Shepson, Paul; Kort, Eric

2014-05-01

New extraction technologies are making natural gas from shale and tight sand gas reservoirs in the United States (US) more accessible. As a result, the US has become the largest producer of natural gas in the world. This growth in natural gas production may result in increased leakage of methane, a potent greenhouse gas, offsetting the climate benefits of natural gas relative to other fossil fuels. Methane emissions from natural gas production are not well quantified because of the large variety of potential sources, the variability in production and operating practices, the uneven distribution of emitters, and a lack of verification of emission inventories with direct atmospheric measurements. Researchers at the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) have used simple mass balance approaches in combination with isotopes and light alkanes to estimate emissions of CH4 from several natural gas and oil plays across the US. We will summarize the results of the available aircraft and ground-based atmospheric emissions estimates to better understand the spatial and temporal distribution of these emissions in the US.

Can Horizontal Hydraulic Fracturing Lead to Less Expensive Achievement of More Natural River Flows?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kern, J.; Characklis, G. W.

2014-12-01

High ramp rates and low costs make hydropower an extremely valuable resource for meeting "peak" hourly electricity demands, but dams that employ variable, stop-start reservoir releases can have adverse impacts on downstream riverine ecosystems. In recent years, efforts to mitigate the environmental impacts of hydropower peaking have relied predominantly on the use of ramp rate restrictions, or limits on the magnitude of hour-to-hour changes in reservoir discharge. These restrictions shift some hydropower production away from peak hours towards less valuable off-peak hours and impose a financial penalty on dam owners that is a function of: 1) the "spread" (difference) between peak and off-peak electricity prices; and 2) the total amount of generation shifted from peak to off-peak hours. In this study, we show how variability in both the price spread and reservoir inflows can cause large swings in the financial cost of ramp rate restrictions on a seasonal and annual basis. Of particular interest is determining whether current low natural gas prices (largely attributable to improvements in hydraulic fracturing) have reduced the cost of implementing ramp rate restrictions at dams by narrowing the spread between peak and off-peak electricity prices. We also examine the role that large year-to-year fluctuations in the cost of ramp rate restrictions may play in precluding downstream stakeholders (e.g., conservation trusts) from "purchasing" more natural streamflow patterns from dam owners. In recent years, similar arrangements between conservation trusts and consumptive water users have been put into practice in the U.S. for the purposes of supplementing baseflows in rivers. However, significant year-to-year uncertainty in the size of payments necessary to compensate hydropower producers for lost peaking production (i.e., uncertainty in the cost of ramp rate restrictions) makes transactions that aim to mitigate the environmental impacts of hydropower peaking untenable. In order to reduce this financial uncertainty, we propose the use of "collar" agreements between a downstream stakeholder and a third party insurer that would provide a stable price for parties "buying" more natural flows.

Regional changes in extreme monsoon rainfall deficit and excess in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pal, Indrani; Al-Tabbaa, Abir

2010-04-01

With increasing concerns about climate change, the need to understand the nature and variability of monsoon climatic conditions and to evaluate possible future changes becomes increasingly important. This paper deals with the changes in frequency and magnitudes of extreme monsoon rainfall deficiency and excess in India from 1871 to 2005. Five regions across India comprising variable climates were selected for the study. Apart from changes in individual regions, changing tendencies in extreme monsoon rainfall deficit and excess were also determined for the Indian region as a whole. The trends and their significance were assessed using non-parametric Mann-Kendall technique. The results show that intra-region variability for extreme monsoon seasonal precipitation is large and mostly exhibited a negative tendency leading to increasing frequency and magnitude of monsoon rainfall deficit and decreasing frequency and magnitude of monsoon rainfall excess.

What is the machine learning?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Spencer; Cohen, Timothy; Ostdiek, Bryan

2018-03-01

Applications of machine learning tools to problems of physical interest are often criticized for producing sensitivity at the expense of transparency. To address this concern, we explore a data planing procedure for identifying combinations of variables—aided by physical intuition—that can discriminate signal from background. Weights are introduced to smooth away the features in a given variable(s). New networks are then trained on this modified data. Observed decreases in sensitivity diagnose the variable's discriminating power. Planing also allows the investigation of the linear versus nonlinear nature of the boundaries between signal and background. We demonstrate the efficacy of this approach using a toy example, followed by an application to an idealized heavy resonance scenario at the Large Hadron Collider. By unpacking the information being utilized by these algorithms, this method puts in context what it means for a machine to learn.

What controls channel form in steep mountain streams?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palucis, M. C.; Lamb, M. P.

2017-07-01

Steep mountain streams have channel morphologies that transition from alternate bar to step-pool to cascade with increasing bed slope, which affect stream habitat, flow resistance, and sediment transport. Experimental and theoretical studies suggest that alternate bars form under large channel width-to-depth ratios, step-pools form in near supercritical flow or when channel width is narrow compared to bed grain size, and cascade morphology is related to debris flows. However, the connection between these process variables and bed slope—the apparent dominant variable for natural stream types—is unclear. Combining field data and theory, we find that certain bed slopes have unique channel morphologies because the process variables covary systematically with bed slope. Multiple stable states are predicted for other ranges in bed slope, suggesting that a competition of underlying processes leads to the emergence of the most stable channel form.

UTEX modeling of xenon signature sensitivity to geology and explosion cavity characteristics following an underground nuclear explosion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lowrey, J. D.; Haas, D.

2013-12-01

Underground nuclear explosions (UNEs) produce anthropogenic isotopes that can potentially be used in the verification component of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. Several isotopes of radioactive xenon gas have been identified as radionuclides of interest within the International Monitoring System (IMS) and in an On-Site Inspection (OSI). Substantial research has been previously undertaken to characterize the geologic and atmospheric mechanisms that can drive the movement of radionuclide gas from a well-contained UNE, considering both sensitivities on gas arrival time and signature variability of xenon due to the nature of subsurface transport. This work further considers sensitivities of radioxenon gas arrival time and signatures to large variability in geologic stratification and generalized explosion cavity characteristics, as well as compares this influence to variability in the shallow surface.

Formal and heuristic system decomposition methods in multidisciplinary synthesis. Ph.D. Thesis, 1991

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bloebaum, Christina L.

1991-01-01

The multidisciplinary interactions which exist in large scale engineering design problems provide a unique set of difficulties. These difficulties are associated primarily with unwieldy numbers of design variables and constraints, and with the interdependencies of the discipline analysis modules. Such obstacles require design techniques which account for the inherent disciplinary couplings in the analyses and optimizations. The objective of this work was to develop an efficient holistic design synthesis methodology that takes advantage of the synergistic nature of integrated design. A general decomposition approach for optimization of large engineering systems is presented. The method is particularly applicable for multidisciplinary design problems which are characterized by closely coupled interactions among discipline analyses. The advantage of subsystem modularity allows for implementation of specialized methods for analysis and optimization, computational efficiency, and the ability to incorporate human intervention and decision making in the form of an expert systems capability. The resulting approach is not a method applicable to only a specific situation, but rather, a methodology which can be used for a large class of engineering design problems in which the system is non-hierarchic in nature.

Large-Scale Spatial Distribution Patterns of Echinoderms in Nearshore Rocky Habitats

PubMed Central

Iken, Katrin; Konar, Brenda; Benedetti-Cecchi, Lisandro; Cruz-Motta, Juan José; Knowlton, Ann; Pohle, Gerhard; Mead, Angela; Miloslavich, Patricia; Wong, Melisa; Trott, Thomas; Mieszkowska, Nova; Riosmena-Rodriguez, Rafael; Airoldi, Laura; Kimani, Edward; Shirayama, Yoshihisa; Fraschetti, Simonetta; Ortiz-Touzet, Manuel; Silva, Angelica

2010-01-01

This study examined echinoderm assemblages from nearshore rocky habitats for large-scale distribution patterns with specific emphasis on identifying latitudinal trends and large regional hotspots. Echinoderms were sampled from 76 globally-distributed sites within 12 ecoregions, following the standardized sampling protocol of the Census of Marine Life NaGISA project (www.nagisa.coml.org). Sample-based species richness was overall low (<1–5 species per site), with a total of 32 asteroid, 18 echinoid, 21 ophiuroid, and 15 holothuroid species. Abundance and species richness in intertidal assemblages sampled with visual methods (organisms >2 cm in 1 m2 quadrats) was highest in the Caribbean ecoregions and echinoids dominated these assemblages with an average of 5 ind m−2. In contrast, intertidal echinoderm assemblages collected from clearings of 0.0625 m2 quadrats had the highest abundance and richness in the Northeast Pacific ecoregions where asteroids and holothurians dominated with an average of 14 ind 0.0625 m−2. Distinct latitudinal trends existed for abundance and richness in intertidal assemblages with declines from peaks at high northern latitudes. No latitudinal trends were found for subtidal echinoderm assemblages with either sampling technique. Latitudinal gradients appear to be superseded by regional diversity hotspots. In these hotspots echinoderm assemblages may be driven by local and regional processes, such as overall productivity and evolutionary history. We also tested a set of 14 environmental variables (six natural and eight anthropogenic) as potential drivers of echinoderm assemblages by ecoregions. The natural variables of salinity, sea-surface temperature, chlorophyll a, and primary productivity were strongly correlated with echinoderm assemblages; the anthropogenic variables of inorganic pollution and nutrient contamination also contributed to correlations. Our results indicate that nearshore echinoderm assemblages appear to be shaped by a network of environmental and ecological processes, and by the differing responses of various echinoderm taxa, making generalizations about the patterns of nearshore rocky habitat echinoderm assemblages difficult. PMID:21079760

Large-scale spatial distribution patterns of echinoderms in nearshore rocky habitats.

PubMed

Iken, Katrin; Konar, Brenda; Benedetti-Cecchi, Lisandro; Cruz-Motta, Juan José; Knowlton, Ann; Pohle, Gerhard; Mead, Angela; Miloslavich, Patricia; Wong, Melisa; Trott, Thomas; Mieszkowska, Nova; Riosmena-Rodriguez, Rafael; Airoldi, Laura; Kimani, Edward; Shirayama, Yoshihisa; Fraschetti, Simonetta; Ortiz-Touzet, Manuel; Silva, Angelica

2010-11-05

This study examined echinoderm assemblages from nearshore rocky habitats for large-scale distribution patterns with specific emphasis on identifying latitudinal trends and large regional hotspots. Echinoderms were sampled from 76 globally-distributed sites within 12 ecoregions, following the standardized sampling protocol of the Census of Marine Life NaGISA project (www.nagisa.coml.org). Sample-based species richness was overall low (<1-5 species per site), with a total of 32 asteroid, 18 echinoid, 21 ophiuroid, and 15 holothuroid species. Abundance and species richness in intertidal assemblages sampled with visual methods (organisms >2 cm in 1 m(2) quadrats) was highest in the Caribbean ecoregions and echinoids dominated these assemblages with an average of 5 ind m(-2). In contrast, intertidal echinoderm assemblages collected from clearings of 0.0625 m(2) quadrats had the highest abundance and richness in the Northeast Pacific ecoregions where asteroids and holothurians dominated with an average of 14 ind 0.0625 m(-2). Distinct latitudinal trends existed for abundance and richness in intertidal assemblages with declines from peaks at high northern latitudes. No latitudinal trends were found for subtidal echinoderm assemblages with either sampling technique. Latitudinal gradients appear to be superseded by regional diversity hotspots. In these hotspots echinoderm assemblages may be driven by local and regional processes, such as overall productivity and evolutionary history. We also tested a set of 14 environmental variables (six natural and eight anthropogenic) as potential drivers of echinoderm assemblages by ecoregions. The natural variables of salinity, sea-surface temperature, chlorophyll a, and primary productivity were strongly correlated with echinoderm assemblages; the anthropogenic variables of inorganic pollution and nutrient contamination also contributed to correlations. Our results indicate that nearshore echinoderm assemblages appear to be shaped by a network of environmental and ecological processes, and by the differing responses of various echinoderm taxa, making generalizations about the patterns of nearshore rocky habitat echinoderm assemblages difficult.

On ozone trend detection: using coupled chemistry-climate simulations to investigate early signs of total column ozone recovery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keeble, James; Brown, Hannah; Abraham, N. Luke; Harris, Neil R. P.; Pyle, John A.

2018-06-01

Total column ozone values from an ensemble of UM-UKCA model simulations are examined to investigate different definitions of progress on the road to ozone recovery. The impacts of modelled internal atmospheric variability are accounted for by applying a multiple linear regression model to modelled total column ozone values, and ozone trend analysis is performed on the resulting ozone residuals. Three definitions of recovery are investigated: (i) a slowed rate of decline and the date of minimum column ozone, (ii) the identification of significant positive trends and (iii) a return to historic values. A return to past thresholds is the last state to be achieved. Minimum column ozone values, averaged from 60° S to 60° N, occur between 1990 and 1995 for each ensemble member, driven in part by the solar minimum conditions during the 1990s. When natural cycles are accounted for, identification of the year of minimum ozone in the resulting ozone residuals is uncertain, with minimum values for each ensemble member occurring at different times between 1992 and 2000. As a result of this large variability, identification of the date of minimum ozone constitutes a poor measure of ozone recovery. Trends for the 2000-2017 period are positive at most latitudes and are statistically significant in the mid-latitudes in both hemispheres when natural cycles are accounted for. This significance results largely from the large sample size of the multi-member ensemble. Significant trends cannot be identified by 2017 at the highest latitudes, due to the large interannual variability in the data, nor in the tropics, due to the small trend magnitude, although it is projected that significant trends may be identified in these regions soon thereafter. While significant positive trends in total column ozone could be identified at all latitudes by ˜ 2030, column ozone values which are lower than the 1980 annual mean can occur in the mid-latitudes until ˜ 2050, and in the tropics and high latitudes deep into the second half of the 21st century.

Discovery of the binary nature of SMC X-1 from Uhuru.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schreier, E.; Giacconi, R.; Gursky, H.; Kellogg, E.; Tananbaum, H.

1972-01-01

The X-ray source in the Small Magellanic Cloud SMC X-1 was observed by Uhuru on numerous occasions from December 1970 through April 1972. As previously reported by Leong et al. (1971), the source was seen to be variable. It was found that SMC X-1 occults with a period of 3.8927 days. The energy spectrum is cut off at low energies and flat. There is no large-amplitude periodic pulsation. The luminosity observed makes the binary source SMC X-1 comparable in strength to both the stronger galactic sources and the discrete sources in the Large Magellanic Cloud.

Detection time for global and regional sea level trends and accelerations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jordà, G.

2014-10-01

Many studies analyze trends on sea level data with the underlying purpose of finding indications of a long-term change that could be interpreted as the signature of anthropogenic climate change. The identification of a long-term trend is a signal-to-noise problem where the natural variability (the "noise") can mask the long-term trend (the "signal"). The signal-to-noise ratio depends on the magnitude of the long-term trend, on the magnitude of the natural variability, and on the length of the record, as the climate noise is larger when averaged over short time scales and becomes smaller over longer averaging periods. In this paper, we evaluate the time required to detect centennial sea level linear trends and accelerations at global and regional scales. Using model results and tide gauge observations, we find that the averaged detection time for a centennial linear trend is 87.9, 76.0, 59.3, 40.3, and 25.2 years for trends of 0.5, 1.0, 2.0, 5.0, and 10.0 mm/yr, respectively. However, in regions with large decadal variations like the Gulf Stream or the Circumpolar current, these values can increase up to a 50%. The spatial pattern of the detection time for sea level accelerations is almost identical. The main difference is that the length of the records has to be about 40-60 years longer to detect an acceleration than to detect a linear trend leading to an equivalent change after 100 years. Finally, we have used a new sea level reconstruction, which provides a more accurate representation of interannual variability for the last century in order to estimate the detection time for global mean sea level trends and accelerations. Our results suggest that the signature of natural variability in a 30 year global mean sea level record would be less than 1 mm/yr. Therefore, at least 2.2 mm/yr of the recent sea level trend estimated by altimetry cannot be attributed to natural multidecadal variability. This article was corrected on 19 NOV 2014. See the end of the full text for details.

Natural variation of fecundity components in a widespread plant with dimorphic seeds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braza, Rita; Arroyo, J.; García, M. B.

2010-09-01

The number and size of seeds are the basis of the quantity and quality components of female reproductive fitness in plants, playing a central role in the evolutionary ecology of life history diversification. In this study we show and analyze the natural variability of several fecundity variables (fruit set, seed production per fruit, seed size, total seed production per plant, and proportion of small seeds) in Plantago coronopus, a widespread, short-lived herb with dimorphic seeds. The structure of such variability was examined at the individual, population (eight locations with different environments within the same region), and life history levels (annual vs perennial), and correlated to soil fertility. There was no divergence associated to the life history for any of the variables studied. Total seed production (the quantity component of female fitness) was correlated with maternal resources, while the size of the large mucilaginous, basal seeds, and the proportion of the small apical seeds (quality component) were more associated to environmental resources. Thus, internal and external resources shape different fitness components, maximizing seed production, and fitting the size and proportion of different kind of seeds to local conditions irrespective of life history. P. coronopus illustrates the versatility of short-lived widespread plants to combine fecundity traits in a flexible manner, in order to increase fitness at each of the many possible habitats they occupy over heterogeneous environments.

Sampling design for spatially distributed hydrogeologic and environmental processes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christakos, G.; Olea, R.A.

1992-01-01

A methodology for the design of sampling networks over space is proposed. The methodology is based on spatial random field representations of nonhomogeneous natural processes, and on optimal spatial estimation techniques. One of the most important results of random field theory for physical sciences is its rationalization of correlations in spatial variability of natural processes. This correlation is extremely important both for interpreting spatially distributed observations and for predictive performance. The extent of site sampling and the types of data to be collected will depend on the relationship of subsurface variability to predictive uncertainty. While hypothesis formulation and initial identification of spatial variability characteristics are based on scientific understanding (such as knowledge of the physics of the underlying phenomena, geological interpretations, intuition and experience), the support offered by field data is statistically modelled. This model is not limited by the geometric nature of sampling and covers a wide range in subsurface uncertainties. A factorization scheme of the sampling error variance is derived, which possesses certain atttactive properties allowing significant savings in computations. By means of this scheme, a practical sampling design procedure providing suitable indices of the sampling error variance is established. These indices can be used by way of multiobjective decision criteria to obtain the best sampling strategy. Neither the actual implementation of the in-situ sampling nor the solution of the large spatial estimation systems of equations are necessary. The required values of the accuracy parameters involved in the network design are derived using reference charts (readily available for various combinations of data configurations and spatial variability parameters) and certain simple yet accurate analytical formulas. Insight is gained by applying the proposed sampling procedure to realistic examples related to sampling problems in two dimensions. ?? 1992.

Spatial Variability of the Background Diurnal Cycle of Deep Convection around the GoAmazon2014/5 Field Campaign Sites

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Burleyson, Casey D.; Feng, Zhe; Hagos, Samson M.

The Amazon rainforest is one of a few regions of the world where continental tropical deep convection occurs. The Amazon’s isolation makes it challenging to observe, but also creates a unique natural laboratory to study anthropogenic impacts on clouds and precipitation in an otherwise pristine environment. Extensive measurements were made upwind and downwind of the large city of Manaus, Brazil during the Observations and Modeling of the Green Ocean Amazon 2014-2015 (GoAmazon2014/5) field campaign. In this study, 15 years of high-resolution satellite data are analyzed to examine the spatial and diurnal variability of convection occurring around the GoAmazon2014/5 sites. Interpretationmore » of anthropogenic differences between the upwind (T0) and downwind (T1-T3) sites is complicated by naturally-occurring spatial variability between the sites. During the rainy season, the inland propagation of the previous day’s sea-breeze front happens to be in phase with the background diurnal cycle near Manaus, but is out of phase elsewhere. Enhanced convergence between the river-breezes and the easterly trade winds generates up to 10% more frequent deep convection at the GoAmazon2014/5 sites east of the river (T0a, T0t/k, and T1) compared to the T3 site which was located near the western bank. In general, the annual and diurnal cycles during 2014 were representative of the 2000-2013 distributions. The only exceptions were in March when the monthly mean rainrate was above the 95th percentile and September when both rain frequency and intensity were suppressed. The natural spatial variability must be accounted for before interpreting anthropogenically-induced differences among the GoAmazon2014/5 sites.« less

Nearshore drift dynamics of natural versus artificial seagrass wrack

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baring, Ryan J.; Fairweather, Peter G.; Lester, Rebecca E.

2018-03-01

Drifting macrophytes such as seagrass and macroalgae are commonly found washed ashore on sandy beaches but few studies have investigated the drift trajectories of macrophytes whilst near to the coast. This is the first study to investigate the surface drifting of small clumps of seagrass released at various distances from shore, across multiple days with contrasting wind and tidal conditions, in a large gulf in southern Australia. Natural and artificial radio-tagged seagrass units generally travelled in the same directions as tides but trajectories were variable across sampling days and when tagged units were released at different distances from shore. Natural and artificial units diverged from each other particularly on days when wind speeds increased but generally drifted in the same direction and ended up within close proximity to each other at the 6-h endpoint. During calm conditions, tagged seagrass units drifted with tides for 0.25-5 km and, during one sampling day when wind speeds increased, drifted for >5 km over the 6-h time period. Only tagged units that were released closest to shore stranded on sandy beaches within the six hours of observation, so it would be difficult to predict the eventual stranding location on shorelines for macrophytes released further offshore. This study provides evidence of the variability of macrophyte drift dynamics near to coastlines. Acknowledging this variability is essential for further understanding of the ecological significance of allochthonous material arriving at shorelines, which should be integrated into future research and management of sandy-beach ecosystems.

The contribution of natural variability to GCM bias: Can we effectively bias-correct climate projections?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McAfee, S. A.; DeLaFrance, A.

2017-12-01

Investigating the impacts of climate change often entails using projections from inherently imperfect general circulation models (GCMs) to drive models that simulate biophysical or societal systems in great detail. Error or bias in the GCM output is often assessed in relation to observations, and the projections are adjusted so that the output from impacts models can be compared to historical or observed conditions. Uncertainty in the projections is typically accommodated by running more than one future climate trajectory to account for differing emissions scenarios, model simulations, and natural variability. The current methods for dealing with error and uncertainty treat them as separate problems. In places where observed and/or simulated natural variability is large, however, it may not be possible to identify a consistent degree of bias in mean climate, blurring the lines between model error and projection uncertainty. Here we demonstrate substantial instability in mean monthly temperature bias across a suite of GCMs used in CMIP5. This instability is greatest in the highest latitudes during the cool season, where shifts from average temperatures below to above freezing could have profound impacts. In models with the greatest degree of bias instability, the timing of regional shifts from below to above average normal temperatures in a single climate projection can vary by about three decades, depending solely on the degree of bias assessed. This suggests that current bias correction methods based on comparison to 20- or 30-year normals may be inappropriate, particularly in the polar regions.

On the spatial decorrelation of stochastic solar resource variability at long timescales

DOE PAGES

Perez, Marc J. R.; Fthenakis, Vasilis M.

2015-05-16

Understanding the spatial and temporal characteristics of solar resource variability is important because it helps inform the discussion surrounding the merits of geographic dispersion and subsequent electrical interconnection of photovoltaics as part of a portfolio of future solutions for coping with this variability. The unpredictable resource variability arising from the stochastic nature of meteorological phenomena (from the passage of clouds to the movement of weather systems) is of most concern for achieving high PV penetration because unlike the passage of seasons or the shift from day to night, the uncertainty makes planning a challenge. A suitable proxy for unpredictable solarmore » resource variability at any given location is the series of variations in the clearness index from one time period to the next because the clearness index is largely independent of the predictable influence of solar geometry. At timescales shorter than one day, the correlation between these variations in clearness index at pairs of distinct geographic locations decreases with spatial extent and with timescale. As the aggregate variability across N decorrelated locations decreases as 1/√N, identifying the distance required to achieve this decorrelation is critical to quantifying the expected reduction in variability from geographic dispersion.« less

Analysis of Water Conflicts across Natural and Societal Boundaries: Integration of Quantitative Modeling and Qualitative Reasoning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Y.; Balaram, P.; Islam, S.

2009-12-01

Water issues and problems have bewildered humankind for a long time yet a systematic approach for understanding such issues remain elusive. This is partly because many water-related problems are framed from a contested terrain in which many actors (individuals, communities, businesses, NGOs, states, and countries) compete to protect their own and often conflicting interests. We argue that origin of many water problems may be understood as a dynamic consequence of competition, interconnections, and feedback among variables in the Natural and Societal Systems (NSSs). Within the natural system, we recognize that triple constraints on water- water quantity (Q), water quality (P), and ecosystem (E)- and their interdependencies and feedback may lead to conflicts. Such inherent and multifaceted constraints of the natural water system are exacerbated often at the societal boundaries. Within the societal system, interdependencies and feedback among values and norms (V), economy (C), and governance (G) interact in various ways to create intractable contextual differences. The observation that natural and societal systems are linked is not novel. Our argument here, however, is that rigid disciplinary boundaries between these two domains will not produce solutions to the water problems we are facing today. The knowledge needed to address water problems need to go beyond scientific assessment in which societal variables (C, G, and V) are treated as exogenous or largely ignored, and policy research that does not consider the impact of natural variables (E, P, and Q) and that coupling among them. Consequently, traditional quantitative methods alone are not appropriate to address the dynamics of water conflicts, because we cannot quantify the societal variables and the exact mathematical relationships among the variables are not fully known. On the other hand, conventional qualitative study in societal domain has mainly been in the form of individual case studies and therefore, the knowledge generated from these studies cannot be easily generalized or transferred to other basins. Here, we present an approach to integrate the quantitative and qualitative methods to study water issues and capture the contextual knowledge of water management- by combining the NSSs framework and an area of artificial intelligence called qualitative reasoning. Using the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) River Basin dispute as an example, we demonstrate how quantitative modeling and qualitative reasoning can be integrated to examine the impact of over abstraction of water from the river on the ecosystem and the role of governance in shaping the evolution of the ACF water dispute.

Impact of natural variability on the perception of climate change for the upcoming decades: Analysis of the CanESM2-LE and CESM-LE large ensembles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rondeau-Genesse, G.; Braun, M.; Chaumont, D.

2017-12-01

The pace of climate change can have a direct impact on the efforts required to adapt. However, for relatively short time scales, this pace can be masked by natural variability (NV). In some cases, this variability might cause, for a few decades, climate change to exceed what would be expected from the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions alone or, to the contrary, it might cause slowdowns or even hiatuses. This phenomenon is difficult to explore using ensembles such as CMIP5, which are composed of multiple climatological models and thus combine both NV and inter-model differences. This study analyses CanESM2-LE and CESM-LE, two state-of-the-art large ensembles (LE) comprised of multiple realizations from a single climatological model and a single GHG emission scenario. We explore the relationship between NV and climate change over the next few decades in Canada and the United States. Temperature indices, namely the mean annual temperature and the 3-day maximum and minimum temperatures are assessed. Results indicate that under the RCP8.5, temperatures within most of the individual large ensemble members will increase in a roughly linear manner between 2021 and 2060. Nevertheless, in some regions such as parts of Canada and Alaska, there is a 20 to 35% probability that the temperature increase will slow down between 2021 and 2040. Such a slowdown in warming temperatures would provide some leeway for adaptation projects, but this phenomenon is caused by NV alone and, as such, is only temporary. Indeed, members of the large ensembles where a slowdown of warming is found during the 2021-2040 period are two to five times more likely to experience a period of very fast warming in the following decades. The opposite scenario, where the changes expected by 2050 would occur early because of NV, remains fairly uncommon for the mean annual temperature. For the extreme temperature indices however, this early warming still occurs in 5 to 20% of the large ensemble members. As such, while our results indicate that the dominant pattern in Canada and the United States is a fairly linear warming, the chances for other patterns is non negligible for the upcoming decades. This reinforces the need for constant, uninterrupted efforts towards climate change adaptation.

Contribution of natural terrestrial sources to the atmospheric chloroform budget

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rhew, R. C.; Abel, T.; Pan, D.; Whelan, M.

2008-12-01

Chloroform (trichloromethane, CHCl3) is the second largest carrier of natural chlorine in the troposphere after methyl chloride, contributing to the reactive chlorine burden in the troposphere and to ozone destruction in the stratosphere. Our understanding of the biogeochemical cycling of atmospheric CHCl3 has undergone major adjustments recently, including the quantification of the total atmospheric burden of this compound, the estimated global source and sink strengths, and the relative contributions of anthropogenic versus natural contributions. Numerous natural terrestrial sources have been identified, including temperate peatlands, Arctic tundra, termite mounds, salt marshes, grasslands, forests and woodlands. However, the wide variability of fluxes within each ecosystem has complicated efforts to quantify the overall terrestrial source. In addition, the environmental and biogeochemical controls remain largely unknown. We shall present a comparison of recent CHCl3 flux measurements that cover a range of biome types and climatic conditions. To address within-biome variability, flux measurements from the Arctic tundra and temperate grasslands will be compared to common environmental parameters (e.g., temperature, soil moisture, solar insolation) and other trace gas fluxes (CH3Cl, CH4, CCl4). The generally poor correlations demonstrate that the variability of CHCl3 emissions may be affected by site-specific parameters that are not currently measured or by drastic changes in hydrologic conditions. Similar patterns are observed in laboratory incubations of tundra peat and grassland soils. We explore the possibility that the humification of plant material, which has been shown to produce organochlorine compounds through the chlorination of organic matter, may contribute to CHCl3 emissions. If this link exists, then CHCl3 production could potentially act as a proxy for organic matter degradation and carbon sequestration, essential biogeochemical and ecosystem processes.

Hydrologic filtering of fish life history strategies across the United States: implications for stream flow alteration

DOE PAGES

McManamay, Ryan A.; Frimpong, Emmanuel A.

2015-01-01

Lotic fish have developed life history strategies adapted to the natural variation in stream flow regimes. The natural timing, duration, and magnitude of flow events has contributed to the diversity, production, and composition of fish assemblages over time. Studies evaluating the role of hydrology in structuring fish assemblages have been more common at the local or regional scale with very few studies conducted at the continental scale. Furthermore, quantitative linkages between natural hydrologic patterns and fish assemblages are rarely used to make predictions of ecological consequences of hydrologic alterations. We ask two questions: (1) what is the relative role ofmore » hydrology in structuring fish assemblages at large scales? and (2) can relationships between fish assemblages and natural hydrology be utilized to predict fish assemblage responses to hydrologic disturbance? We developed models to relate fish life histories and reproductive strategies to landscape and hydrologic variables separately and then combined. Models were then used to predict the ecological consequences of altered hydrology due to dam regulation. Although hydrology plays a considerable role in structuring fish assemblages, the performance of models using only hydrologic variables was lower than that of models constructed using landscape variables. Isolating the relative importance of hydrology in structuring fish assemblages at the continental scale is difficult since hydrology is interrelated to many landscape factors. By applying models to dam-regulated hydrologic data, we observed some consistent predicted responses in fish life history strategies and modes of reproduction. In agreement with existing literature, equilibrium strategists are predicted to increase following dam regulation, whereas opportunistic and periodic species are predicted to decrease. In addition, dam regulation favors the selection of reproductive strategies with extended spawning seasons and preference for stable conditions.« less

Revenue-sharing clubs provide economic insurance and incentives for sustainability in common-pool resource systems.

PubMed

Tilman, Andrew R; Levin, Simon; Watson, James R

2018-06-05

Harvesting behaviors of natural resource users, such as farmers, fishermen and aquaculturists, are shaped by season-to-season and day-to-day variability, or in other words risk. Here, we explore how risk-mitigation strategies can lead to sustainable use and improved management of common-pool natural resources. Over-exploitation of unmanaged natural resources, which lowers their long-term productivity, is a central challenge facing societies. While effective top-down management is a possible solution, it is not available if the resource is outside the jurisdictional bounds of any management entity, or if existing institutions cannot effectively impose sustainable-use rules. Under these conditions, alternative approaches to natural resource governance are required. Here, we study revenue-sharing clubs as a mechanism by which resource users can mitigate their income volatility and importantly, as a co-benefit, are also incentivized to reduce their effort, leading to reduced over-exploitation and improved resource governance. We use game theoretic analyses and agent-based modeling to determine the conditions in which revenue-sharing can be beneficial for resource management as well as resource users. We find that revenue-sharing agreements can emerge and lead to improvements in resource management when there is large variability in production/revenue and when this variability is uncorrelated across members of the revenue-sharing club. Further, we show that if members of the revenue-sharing collective can sell their product at a price premium, then the range of ecological and economic conditions under which revenue-sharing can be a tool for management greatly expands. These results have implications for the design of bottom-up management, where resource users themselves are incentivized to operate in ecologically sustainable and economically advantageous ways. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hydrologic filtering of fish life history strategies across the United States: implications for stream flow alteration

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McManamay, Ryan A.; Frimpong, Emmanuel A.

Lotic fish have developed life history strategies adapted to the natural variation in stream flow regimes. The natural timing, duration, and magnitude of flow events has contributed to the diversity, production, and composition of fish assemblages over time. Studies evaluating the role of hydrology in structuring fish assemblages have been more common at the local or regional scale with very few studies conducted at the continental scale. Furthermore, quantitative linkages between natural hydrologic patterns and fish assemblages are rarely used to make predictions of ecological consequences of hydrologic alterations. We ask two questions: (1) what is the relative role ofmore » hydrology in structuring fish assemblages at large scales? and (2) can relationships between fish assemblages and natural hydrology be utilized to predict fish assemblage responses to hydrologic disturbance? We developed models to relate fish life histories and reproductive strategies to landscape and hydrologic variables separately and then combined. Models were then used to predict the ecological consequences of altered hydrology due to dam regulation. Although hydrology plays a considerable role in structuring fish assemblages, the performance of models using only hydrologic variables was lower than that of models constructed using landscape variables. Isolating the relative importance of hydrology in structuring fish assemblages at the continental scale is difficult since hydrology is interrelated to many landscape factors. By applying models to dam-regulated hydrologic data, we observed some consistent predicted responses in fish life history strategies and modes of reproduction. In agreement with existing literature, equilibrium strategists are predicted to increase following dam regulation, whereas opportunistic and periodic species are predicted to decrease. In addition, dam regulation favors the selection of reproductive strategies with extended spawning seasons and preference for stable conditions.« less

A methodology for risk analysis based on hybrid Bayesian networks: application to the regasification system of liquefied natural gas onboard a floating storage and regasification unit.

PubMed

Martins, Marcelo Ramos; Schleder, Adriana Miralles; Droguett, Enrique López

2014-12-01

This article presents an iterative six-step risk analysis methodology based on hybrid Bayesian networks (BNs). In typical risk analysis, systems are usually modeled as discrete and Boolean variables with constant failure rates via fault trees. Nevertheless, in many cases, it is not possible to perform an efficient analysis using only discrete and Boolean variables. The approach put forward by the proposed methodology makes use of BNs and incorporates recent developments that facilitate the use of continuous variables whose values may have any probability distributions. Thus, this approach makes the methodology particularly useful in cases where the available data for quantification of hazardous events probabilities are scarce or nonexistent, there is dependence among events, or when nonbinary events are involved. The methodology is applied to the risk analysis of a regasification system of liquefied natural gas (LNG) on board an FSRU (floating, storage, and regasification unit). LNG is becoming an important energy source option and the world's capacity to produce LNG is surging. Large reserves of natural gas exist worldwide, particularly in areas where the resources exceed the demand. Thus, this natural gas is liquefied for shipping and the storage and regasification process usually occurs at onshore plants. However, a new option for LNG storage and regasification has been proposed: the FSRU. As very few FSRUs have been put into operation, relevant failure data on FSRU systems are scarce. The results show the usefulness of the proposed methodology for cases where the risk analysis must be performed under considerable uncertainty. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

On the Nature of the Mesoscale Variability in Denmark Strait

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pickart, Robert; von Appen, Wilken; Mastropole, Dana; Valdimarsson, Hedinn; Vage, Kjetil; Jonsson, Steingriumur; Jochumsen, Kerstin; Girton, James

2017-04-01

The dense overflow through Denmark Strait is the largest contributor to the lower limb of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. As such, it is important to understand the sources of water feeding the overflow and how the water negotiates the sill as it passes into the Irminger Sea. Here we use a large collection of shipboard hydrographic transects occupied across the strait, together with 6-years of mooring data from the sill, to investigate the water masses and mesoscale variability of the overflow water. Two dominant types of mesoscale features were identified, referred to as a "bolus" and a "pulse". The former is a large lens of weakly stratified water corresponding to a slight increase in along-strait velocity. The latter is a thin layer with greater stratification and strongly enhanced along-strait flow. The boluses, which are often noted in the historical literature, are associated with cyclonic circulation, while pulses, which have not been previously identified, are associated with anti-cyclonic circulation. Both features result in increased transport of overflow water. It is argued that these fluctuations at the sill trigger energetic variability downstream in the Deep Western Boundary Current.

Harnessing the Bethe free energy†

PubMed Central

Bapst, Victor

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT A wide class of problems in combinatorics, computer science and physics can be described along the following lines. There are a large number of variables ranging over a finite domain that interact through constraints that each bind a few variables and either encourage or discourage certain value combinations. Examples include the k‐SAT problem or the Ising model. Such models naturally induce a Gibbs measure on the set of assignments, which is characterised by its partition function. The present paper deals with the partition function of problems where the interactions between variables and constraints are induced by a sparse random (hyper)graph. According to physics predictions, a generic recipe called the “replica symmetric cavity method” yields the correct value of the partition function if the underlying model enjoys certain properties [Krzkala et al., PNAS (2007) 10318–10323]. Guided by this conjecture, we prove general sufficient conditions for the success of the cavity method. The proofs are based on a “regularity lemma” for probability measures on sets of the form Ωn for a finite Ω and a large n that may be of independent interest. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Random Struct. Alg., 49, 694–741, 2016 PMID:28035178

Natural and pyrogenic humic acids at goethite and natural oxide surfaces interacting with phosphate.

PubMed

Hiemstra, Tjisse; Mia, Shamim; Duhaut, Pierre-Benoît; Molleman, Bastiaan

2013-08-20

Fulvic and humic acids have a large variability in binding to metal (hydr) oxide surfaces and interact differently with oxyanions, as examined here experimentally. Pyrogenic humic acid has been included in our study since it will be released to the environment in the case of large-scale application of biochar, potentially creating Darks Earths or Terra Preta soils. A surface complexation approach has been developed that aims to describe the competitive behavior of natural organic matter (NOM) in soil as well as model systems. Modeling points unexpectedly to a strong change of the molecular conformation of humic acid (HA) with a predominant adsorption in the Stern layer domain at low NOM loading. In soil, mineral oxide surfaces remain efficiently loaded by mineral-protected organic carbon (OC), equivalent with a layer thickness of ≥ ~0.5 nm that represents at least 0.1-1.0% OC, while surface-associated OC may be even three times higher. In natural systems, surface complexation modeling should account for this pervasive NOM coverage. With our charge distribution model for NOM (NOM-CD), the pH-dependent oxyanion competition of the organo-mineral oxide fraction can be described. For pyrogenic HA, a more than 10-fold increase in dissolved phosphate is predicted at long-term applications of biochar or black carbon.

Stratospheric free chlorine measured by balloon-borne in situ resonance fluorescence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anderson, J. G.; Grassl, H. J.; Shetter, R. E.; Margitan, J. J.

1980-01-01

Eight balloon-borne in situ measurements of ClO in the stratosphere are analyzed and are compared with recent model calculations. While the use of in situ stratospheric studies of free radicals to test models by comparing observed and predicted concentration profiles is essential for a prognosis of changes in stratospheric ozone, resulting from future changes in stratospheric ozone, such studies provide only limited insight into the nature of stratospheric photochemistry, because natural variability and the large number of fast reactions which compete in the coupling among the key radicals frustrate a detailed comparison between a mean distribution provided by the models and an instantaneous distribution provided by a single observation.

Quantitative and qualitative analysis of naphthenic acids in natural waters surrounding the Canadian oil sands industry.

PubMed

Ross, Matthew S; Pereira, Alberto dos Santos; Fennell, Jon; Davies, Martin; Johnson, James; Sliva, Lucie; Martin, Jonathan W

2012-12-04

The Canadian oil sands industry stores toxic oil sands process-affected water (OSPW) in large tailings ponds adjacent to the Athabasca River or its tributaries, raising concerns over potential seepage. Naphthenic acids (NAs; C(n)H(2n-Z)O(2)) are toxic components of OSPW, but are also natural components of bitumen and regional groundwaters, and may enter surface waters through anthropogenic or natural sources. This study used a selective high-resolution mass spectrometry method to examine total NA concentrations and NA profiles in OSPW (n = 2), Athabasca River pore water (n = 6, representing groundwater contributions) and surface waters (n = 58) from the Lower Athabasca Region. NA concentrations in surface water (< 2-80.8 μg/L) were 100-fold lower than previously estimated. Principal components analysis (PCA) distinguished sample types based on NA profile, and correlations to water quality variables identified two sources of NAs: natural fatty acids, and bitumen-derived NAs. Analysis of NA data with water quality variables highlighted two tributaries to the Athabasca River-Beaver River and McLean Creek-as possibly receiving OSPW seepage. This study is the first comprehensive analysis of NA profiles in surface waters of the region, and demonstrates the need for highly selective analytical methods for source identification and in monitoring for potential effects of development on ambient water quality.

Influence of natural temperature gradients on measurements of xylem sap flow with thermal dissipation probes. 1. Field observations and possible remedies.

PubMed

Do, F; Rocheteau, A

2002-06-01

The thermal dissipation method is simple and widely used for measuring sap flow in large stems. As with several other thermal methods, natural temperature gradients are assumed to be negligible in the sapwood being measured. We studied the magnitude and variability of natural temperature gradients in sapwood of Acacia trees growing in the Sahelian zone of Senegal, analyzed their effects on sap flow measurements, and investigated possible solutions. A new measurement approach employing cyclic heating (45 minutes of heating and 15 minutes of cooling; 45/15) was also tested. Three-day measurement sequences that included 1 day without heating, a second day with continuous heating and a third day with cyclic heating were recorded during a 6.5-month period using probes installed at three azimuths in a tree trunk. Natural temperature gradients between the two probes of the sensor unit, spaced 8 to 10 cm vertically, were rarely negligible (i.e., < 0.2 degrees C): they were positive during the night and negative during the day, with an amplitude ranging from 0.3 to 3.5 degrees C depending on trunk azimuth, day and season. These temperature gradients had a direct influence on the signal from the continuously heated sensors, inducing fluctuations in the nighttime reference signal. The resulting errors in sap flow estimates can be greater than 100%. Correction protocols have been proposed in previous studies, but they were unsuitable because of the high spatial and temporal variability of the natural temperature gradients. We found that a measurement signal derived from a noncontinuous heating system could be an attractive solution because it appears to be independent of natural temperature gradients. The magnitude and variability of temperature gradients that we observed were likely exacerbated by the combination of open stand, high solar radiation and low sap flow rate. However, for all applications of the thermal dissipation method, it is wise to check regularly for natural temperature gradients by switching off the heater.

Interpreting Chicken-Scratch: Lexical Access for Handwritten Words

PubMed Central

Barnhart, Anthony S.; Goldinger, Stephen D.

2014-01-01

Handwritten word recognition is a field of study that has largely been neglected in the psychological literature, despite its prevalence in society. Whereas studies of spoken word recognition almost exclusively employ natural, human voices as stimuli, studies of visual word recognition use synthetic typefaces, thus simplifying the process of word recognition. The current study examined the effects of handwriting on a series of lexical variables thought to influence bottom-up and top-down processing, including word frequency, regularity, bidirectional consistency, and imageability. The results suggest that the natural physical ambiguity of handwritten stimuli forces a greater reliance on top-down processes, because almost all effects were magnified, relative to conditions with computer print. These findings suggest that processes of word perception naturally adapt to handwriting, compensating for physical ambiguity by increasing top-down feedback. PMID:20695708

Optical Properties and Crystallization of Natural Waxes at Several Annealing Temperatures: a Terahertz Time-Domain Spectroscopy Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Lu; Xu, Xinlong

2018-03-01

The thermal analysis and optical properties of paraffin wax, beeswax, and liquid paraffin annealed at variable temperatures have been conducted using terahertz time-domain spectroscopy (THz-TDS) coupled with SEM methods. The characteristic optical properties of natural waxes can be used to analyze natural wax adulteration. The lamellar structure of paraffin wax and beeswax grew by a sheet of chain expansion. Furthermore, the crystallization process of paraffin wax can be assigned: rotator-solid transition and liquid-solid ones. According to the temperature-dependent refractive index curves, the refractive index of paraffin wax varies from large to small followed by rotator-liquid transition, untreated one, and liquid-solid one, respectively. The results indicated that THz-TDS has been proved to be of great potential in identification the crystallization of waxes.

Improving estuary models by reducing uncertainties associated with river flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robins, Peter E.; Lewis, Matt J.; Freer, Jim; Cooper, David M.; Skinner, Christopher J.; Coulthard, Tom J.

2018-07-01

To mitigate against future changes to estuaries such as water quality, catchment and estuary models can be coupled to simulate the transport of harmful pathogenic viruses, pollutants and nutrients from their terrestrial sources, through the estuary and to the coast. To predict future changes to estuaries, daily mean river flow projections are typically used. We show that this approach cannot resolve higher frequency discharge events that have large impacts to estuarine dilution, contamination and recovery for two contrasting estuaries. We therefore characterise sub-daily scale flow variability and propagate this through an estuary model to provide robust estimates of impacts for the future. River flow data (35-year records at 15-min sampling) were used to characterise variabilities in storm hydrograph shapes and simulate the estuarine response. In particular, we modelled a fast-responding catchment-estuary system (Conwy, UK), where the natural variability in hydrograph shapes generated large variability in estuarine circulation that was not captured when using daily-averaged river forcing. In the extreme, the freshwater plume from a 'flash' flood (lasting <12 h) was underestimated by up to 100% - and the response to nutrient loading was underestimated further still. A model of a slower-responding system (Humber, UK), where hydrographs typically last 2-4 days, showed less variability in estuarine circulation and good approximation with daily-averaged flow forcing. Our result has implications for entire system impact modelling; when we determine future changes to estuaries, some systems will need higher resolution future river flow estimates.

A reduced successive quadratic programming strategy for errors-in-variables estimation.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tjoa, I.-B.; Biegler, L. T.; Carnegie-Mellon Univ.

Parameter estimation problems in process engineering represent a special class of nonlinear optimization problems, because the maximum likelihood structure of the objective function can be exploited. Within this class, the errors in variables method (EVM) is particularly interesting. Here we seek a weighted least-squares fit to the measurements with an underdetermined process model. Thus, both the number of variables and degrees of freedom available for optimization increase linearly with the number of data sets. Large optimization problems of this type can be particularly challenging and expensive to solve because, for general-purpose nonlinear programming (NLP) algorithms, the computational effort increases atmore » least quadratically with problem size. In this study we develop a tailored NLP strategy for EVM problems. The method is based on a reduced Hessian approach to successive quadratic programming (SQP), but with the decomposition performed separately for each data set. This leads to the elimination of all variables but the model parameters, which are determined by a QP coordination step. In this way the computational effort remains linear in the number of data sets. Moreover, unlike previous approaches to the EVM problem, global and superlinear properties of the SQP algorithm apply naturally. Also, the method directly incorporates inequality constraints on the model parameters (although not on the fitted variables). This approach is demonstrated on five example problems with up to 102 degrees of freedom. Compared to general-purpose NLP algorithms, large improvements in computational performance are observed.« less

Managing Financial Risk to Hydropower in Snow Dominated Systems: A Hetch Hetchy Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamilton, A. L.; Characklis, G. W.; Reed, P. M.

2017-12-01

Hydropower generation in snow dominated systems is vulnerable to severe shortfalls in years with low snowpack. Meanwhile, generators are also vulnerable to variability in electricity demand and wholesale electricity prices, both of which can be impacted by factors such as temperature and natural gas price. Year-to-year variability in these underlying stochastic variables leads to financial volatility and the threat of low revenue periods, which can be highly disruptive for generators with large fixed operating costs and debt service. In this research, the Hetch Hetchy Power system is used to characterize financial risk in a snow dominated hydropower system. Owned and operated by the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission, Hetch Hetchy generates power for its own municipal operations and sells excess power to irrigation districts, as well as on the wholesale market. This investigation considers the effects of variability in snowpack, temperature, and natural gas price on Hetch Hetchy Power's yearly revenues. This information is then used to evaluate the effectiveness of various financial risk management tools for hedging against revenue variability. These tools are designed to mitigate against all three potential forms of financial risk (i.e. low hydropower generation, low electricity demand, and low/high electricity price) and include temperature-based derivative contracts, natural gas price-based derivative contracts, and a novel form of snowpack-based index insurance contract. These are incorporated into a comprehensive risk management portfolio, along with self-insurance in which the utility buffers yearly revenue volatility using a contingency fund. By adaptively managing the portfolio strategy, a utility can efficiently spread yearly risks over a multi-year time horizon. The Borg Multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithm is used to generate a set of Pareto optimal portfolio strategies, which are used to compare the tradeoffs in objectives such as expected revenues, low revenues, revenue volatility, and portfolio complexity.

Achieving a 100% Renewable Grid: Operating Electric Power Systems with Extremely High Levels of Variable Renewable Energy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kroposki, Benjamin; Johnson, Brian; Zhang, Yingchen

What does it mean to achieve a 100% renewable grid? Several countries already meet or come close to achieving this goal. Iceland, for example, supplies 100% of its electricity needs with either geothermal or hydropower. Other countries that have electric grids with high fractions of renewables based on hydropower include Norway (97%), Costa Rica (93%), Brazil (76%), and Canada (62%). Hydropower plants have been used for decades to create a relatively inexpensive, renewable form of energy, but these systems are limited by natural rainfall and geographic topology. Around the world, most good sites for large hydropower resources have already beenmore » developed. So how do other areas achieve 100% renewable grids? Variable renewable energy (VRE), such as wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) systems, will be a major contributor, and with the reduction in costs for these technologies during the last five years, large-scale deployments are happening around the world.« less

Proteome-wide association studies identify biochemical modules associated with a wing-size phenotype in Drosophila melanogaster.

PubMed

Okada, Hirokazu; Ebhardt, H Alexander; Vonesch, Sibylle Chantal; Aebersold, Ruedi; Hafen, Ernst

2016-09-01

The manner by which genetic diversity within a population generates individual phenotypes is a fundamental question of biology. To advance the understanding of the genotype-phenotype relationships towards the level of biochemical processes, we perform a proteome-wide association study (PWAS) of a complex quantitative phenotype. We quantify the variation of wing imaginal disc proteomes in Drosophila genetic reference panel (DGRP) lines using SWATH mass spectrometry. In spite of the very large genetic variation (1/36 bp) between the lines, proteome variability is surprisingly small, indicating strong molecular resilience of protein expression patterns. Proteins associated with adult wing size form tight co-variation clusters that are enriched in fundamental biochemical processes. Wing size correlates with some basic metabolic functions, positively with glucose metabolism but negatively with mitochondrial respiration and not with ribosome biogenesis. Our study highlights the power of PWAS to filter functional variants from the large genetic variability in natural populations.

Cu Isotopic Composition in Surface Environments and in Biological Systems: A Critical Review

PubMed Central

Wang, Zhuhong; Chen, Jiubin; Zhang, Ting

2017-01-01

Copper (Cu) is a transition metal and an essential micronutrient for organisms, but also one of the most widespread toxic inorganic contaminants at very high content. The research on Cu isotopes has grown rapidly in the last decade. Hitherto, a large number of studies have been published on the theoretical fractionation mechanisms, experimental data and natural variations of Cu isotopes in variable environments and ecosystems. These studies reported a large variation of δ65Cu (−16.49 to +20.04‰) in terrestrial samples and showed that Cu isotopes could be fractionated by various biogeochemical processes to different extent. Several papers have previously reviewed the coupling of Cu and Zn isotope systematics, and we give here a tentative review of the recent publications only on Cu isotopesin variable surface repositories, animals and human beings, with a goal to attract much attention to research on Cu (and other metals) behaviors in the environment and biological systems. PMID:28524094

Improving preparedness of farmers to Climate Variability: A case study of Vidarbha region of Maharashtra, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swami, D.; Parthasarathy, D.; Dave, P.

2016-12-01

A key objective of the ongoing research is to understand the risk and vulnerability of agriculture and farming communities with respect to multiple climate change attributes, particularly monsoon variability and hydrology such as ground water availability. Climate Variability has always been a feature affecting Indian agriculture but the nature and characteristics of this variability is not well understood. Indian monsoon patterns are highly variable and most of the studies focus on larger domain such as Central India or Western coast (Ghosh et al., 2009) but district level analysis is missing i.e. the linkage between agriculture and climate variables at finer scale has not been investigated comprehensively. For example, Eastern Vidarbha region in Maharashtra is considered as one of the most agriculturally sensitive region in India, where every year a large number of farmers commit suicide. The main reasons for large number of suicides are climate related stressors such as droughts, hail storms, and monsoon variability aggravated with poor socio-economic conditions. Present study has tried to explore the areas in Vidarbha region of Maharashtra where famers and crop productivity, specifically cotton, sorghum, is highly vulnerable to monsoon variability, hydrological and socio-economic variables which are further modelled to determine the maximal contributing factor towards crops and farmers' vulnerability. After analysis using primary and secondary data, it will aid in decision making regarding field operations such as time of sowing, harvesting and irrigation requirements by optimizing the cropping pattern with climatic, hydrological and socio-economic variables. It also suggests the adaptation strategies to farmers regarding different types of cropping and water harvesting practices, optimized dates and timings for harvesting, sowing, water and nutrient requirements of particular crops according to the specific region. Primarily along with secondary analysis captured here can be highly beneficial for the farmers and policy makers while formulating agricultural policies related to climate change.

On the use of nudging techniques for regional climate modeling: application for tropical convection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pohl, Benjamin; Crétat, Julien

2014-09-01

Using a large set of WRF ensemble simulations at 70-km horizontal resolution over a domain encompassing the Warm Pool region and its surroundings [45°N-45°S, 10°E-240°E], this study aims at quantifying how nudging techniques can modify the simulation of deep atmospheric convection. Both seasonal mean climate, transient variability at intraseasonal timescales, and the respective weight of internal (stochastic) and forced (reproducible) variability are considered. Sensitivity to a large variety of nudging settings (nudged variables and layers and nudging strength) and to the model physics (using 3 convective parameterizations) is addressed. Integrations are carried out during a 7-month season characterized by neutral background conditions and strong intraseasonal variability. Results show that (1) the model responds differently to the nudging from one parameterization to another. Biases are decreased by ~50 % for Betts-Miller-Janjic convection against 17 % only for Grell-Dévényi, the scheme producing yet the largest biases; (2) relaxing air temperature is the most efficient way to reduce biases, while nudging the wind increases most co-variability with daily observations; (3) the model's internal variability is drastically reduced and mostly depends on the nudging strength and nudged variables; (4) interrupting the relaxation before the end of the simulations leads to an abrupt convergence towards the model's natural solution, with no clear effects on the simulated climate after a few days. The usefulness and limitations of the approach are finally discussed through the example of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, that the model fails at simulating and that can be artificially and still imperfectly reproduced in relaxation experiments.

Mesoscale spatial variability of selected aquatic invertebrate community metrics from a minimally impaired stream segment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gebler, J.B.

2004-01-01

The related topics of spatial variability of aquatic invertebrate community metrics, implications of spatial patterns of metric values to distributions of aquatic invertebrate communities, and ramifications of natural variability to the detection of human perturbations were investigated. Four metrics commonly used for stream assessment were computed for 9 stream reaches within a fairly homogeneous, minimally impaired stream segment of the San Pedro River, Arizona. Metric variability was assessed for differing sampling scenarios using simple permutation procedures. Spatial patterns of metric values suggest that aquatic invertebrate communities are patchily distributed on subsegment and segment scales, which causes metric variability. Wide ranges of metric values resulted in wide ranges of metric coefficients of variation (CVs) and minimum detectable differences (MDDs), and both CVs and MDDs often increased as sample size (number of reaches) increased, suggesting that any particular set of sampling reaches could yield misleading estimates of population parameters and effects that can be detected. Mean metric variabilities were substantial, with the result that only fairly large differences in metrics would be declared significant at ?? = 0.05 and ?? = 0.20. The number of reaches required to obtain MDDs of 10% and 20% varied with significance level and power, and differed for different metrics, but were generally large, ranging into tens and hundreds of reaches. Study results suggest that metric values from one or a small number of stream reach(es) may not be adequate to represent a stream segment, depending on effect sizes of interest, and that larger sample sizes are necessary to obtain reasonable estimates of metrics and sample statistics. For bioassessment to progress, spatial variability may need to be investigated in many systems and should be considered when designing studies and interpreting data.

Two centuries of observed atmospheric variability and change over the North Sea region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stendel, Martin; van den Besselaar, Else; Hannachi, Abdel; Kent, Elizabeth; Lefebvre, Christiana; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Rosenhagen, Gudrun; Schenk, Frederik; van der Schrier, Gerard

2015-04-01

Situated in northwestern Europe, the North Sea region is under influence of air masses from subtropical to arctic origin, and thus exhibits significant natural climate variability. As the land areas surrounding the North Sea are densely populated, climate change is an important issue in terms of e.g. coastal protection, fishery and trade. This study is part of the NOSCCA initiative (North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment) and presents observed variability and changes in atmospheric parameters during the last roughly 200 years. Circulation patterns show considerable decadal variability. In recent decades, a northward shift of storm tracks and increased cyclonic activity has been observed. There is also an indication of increased persistence of weather types. The wind climate is dominated by large multidecadal variability, and no robust long-term trends can be identified in the available datasets. There is a clear positive trend in near-surface temperatures, in particular during spring and winter. Over the region as a whole, no clear long-term precipitation trends are visible, although regional indications exist for an increased risk of extreme precipitation events.

Phytoplankton natural fluorescence variability in the Sargasso Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westberry, T. K.; Siegel, D. A.

2003-03-01

Phytoplankton fluorescence has been used historically as a means of assessing phytoplankton biomass, rates of primary production (PP) and physiological status in laboratory, in situ, and satellite based investigations. Assumptions about the quantum yield of phytoplankton fluorescence, φf, are often overlooked and can become problematic when fluorescence based methods are applied. A time series of φf observations from the northwestern Sargasso Sea is presented with the goal of understanding the controls on fluorescence and its applicability for assessing upper ocean biological processes. Accurate estimates of φf require accounting for Raman scattering and the conversion of planar to scalar irradiance. Variability in φf occurs on both seasonal and episodic time scales. Seasonal variations show maxima in the surface layer during summer months while lower, more uniform values are found throughout the winter when deep mixing occurs. Large episodic variations in φf are observed throughout the record which dwarf seasonal changes. Predictions of depth-dependent and depth-integrated PP rates using φf and natural fluorescence fluxes are only marginally successful ( r2˜50%), although comparable with results from global bio-optical models for the Sargasso Sea. Improvements in PP predictions are hindered by weak statistical relationships with other parameters. φf is largely decoupled from the quantum yield of carbon assimilation, φc, indicating that an inverse relationship between fluorescence and photosynthesis does not exist. Consequently, variability in the quantum yield of thermal de-excitation, φh, is found to be of similar magnitude as φf on the timescales observed. These observations show that assumptions about photochemical energy flow through the phytoplankton community must be made carefully and that the fluorescence-photosynthesis relationship is not straightforward.

High natural erosion rates are the backdrop for enhanced anthropogenic soil erosion in the Middle Hills of Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

West, A. J.; Arnold, M.; Aumaître, G.; Bourlès, D. L.; Keddadouche, K.; Bickle, M.; Ojha, T.

2014-08-01

Although agriculturally accelerated soil erosion is implicated in the unsustainable environmental degradation of mountain environments, such as in the Himalaya, the effects of land use can be difficult to quantify in many mountain settings because of the high and variable natural background rates of erosion. In this study, we present new long-term denudation rates, derived from cosmogenic 10Be analysis of quartz in river sediment from the Likhu Khola, a small agricultural river basin in the Middle Hills of central Nepal. Calculated long-term denudation rates, which reflect background natural erosion processes over 1000+ years prior to agricultural intensification, are similar to present-day sediment yields and to soil loss rates from terraces that are well-maintained. Similarity in short- and long-term catchment-wide erosion rates for the Likhu is consistent with data from elsewhere in the Nepal Middle Hills, but contrasts with the very large increases in short-term erosion rates seen in agricultural catchments in other steep mountain settings. Our results suggest that the large sediment fluxes exported from the Likhu and other Middle Hills rivers in the Himalaya are derived in large part from natural processes, rather than from soil erosion as a result of agricultural activity. Because of the high natural background rates, simple comparison of short- and long-term rates may not reveal unsustainable soil degradation, particularly if much of the catchment-scale erosion flux derives from mass wasting. Correcting for the mass wasting contribution in the Likhu implies minimum catchment-averaged soil production rates of ~0.25-0.35 mm yr-1. The deficit between these production rates and soil losses suggests that terraced agriculture in the Likhu may not be associated with a large systematic soil deficit, at least when terraces are well maintained, but that poorly managed terraces, forest and scrubland may lead to rapid depletion of soil resources.

Determining the effects of dams on subdaily variation in river flows at a whole-basin scale

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zimmerman, J.K.H.; Letcher, B.H.; Nislow, K.H.; Lutz, K.A.; Magilligan, F.J.

2010-01-01

River regulation can alter the frequency and magnitude of subdaily flow variations causing major impacts on ecological structure and function. We developed an approach to quantify subdaily flow variation for multiple sites across a large watershed to assess the potential impacts of different dam operations (flood control, run-of-river hydropower and peaking hydropower) on natural communities. We used hourly flow data over a 9-year period from 30 stream gages throughout the Connecticut River basin to calculate four metrics of subdaily flow variation and to compare sites downstream of dams with unregulated sites. Our objectives were to (1) determine the temporal scale of data needed to characterize subdaily variability; (2) compare the frequency of days with high subdaily flow variation downstream of dams and unregulated sites; (3) analyse the magnitude of subdaily variation at all sites and (4) identify individual sites that had subdaily variation significantly higher than unregulated locations. We found that estimates of flow variability based on daily mean flow data were not sufficient to characterize subdaily flow patterns. Alteration of subdaily flows was evident in the number of days natural ranges of variability were exceeded, rather than in the magnitude of subdaily variation, suggesting that all rivers may exhibit highly variable subdaily flows, but altered rivers exhibit this variability more frequently. Peaking hydropower facilities had the most highly altered subdaily flows; however, we observed significantly altered ranges of subdaily variability downstream of some flood-control and run-of-river hydropower dams. Our analysis can be used to identify situations where dam operating procedures could be modified to reduce the level of hydrologic alteration. ?? 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Intraindividual variability in cognitive performance in three groups of older adults: cross-domain links to physical status and self-perceived affect and beliefs.

PubMed

Strauss, Esther; MacDonald, Stuart W S; Hunter, Michael; Moll, Alex; Hultsch, David F

2002-11-01

Intraindividual variability of physical status and affect/beliefs as well as their relations with cognition were examined in 3 groups of older adults: healthy elderly, individuals with a nonneurological health-related disturbance (arthritis) and people with neurological compromise (dementia). The findings showed that greater inconsistency in physical performance was observed in groups characterized by central nervous system dysfunction. By contrast, fluctuations in affect appeared to reflect other more transient sources, such as pain. In general, increased inconsistency in non-cognitive domains was associated with poorer cognitive function. There were cross-domain links between inconsistency in physical functioning and fluctuations in cognitive performance, although the nature of the links depended largely upon the neurological status of the individuals. Considered together, the result indicated that measures of cognitive as well as physical variability are important behavioral markers of neurological integrity.

Natural History of Anterior Shoulder Instability.

PubMed

Carpinteiro, Eduardo Palma; Barros, Andre Aires

2017-01-01

The shoulder is the most complex joint in the body. The large freedom of motion in this joint is the main cause of instability. Instability varies in its degree, direction, etiology and volition and there is a large spectrum of conditions. Based on literature research and also in our own experience, we propose to elucidate the reader about the natural history of instability and its importance for the appropriate management of this pathology, by answering the following questions: What happens in the shoulder after the first dislocation? Which structures suffer damage? Who are the patients at higher risk of recurrence? How does the disease evolve without treatment? Will surgical treatment avoid future negative outcomes and prevent degenerative joint disease? Who should we treat and when? 80% of anterior-inferior dislocations occur in young patients. Recurrent instability is common and multiple dislocations are the rule. Instability is influenced by a large number of variables, including age of onset, activity profile, number of episodes,delay between first episode and surgical treatment. Understanding the disease and its natural evolution is determinant to decide the treatment in order to obtain the best outcome. It is crucial to identify the risk factors for recurrence. Delay in surgical treatment, when indicated, leads to worse results. Surgical technique should address the type and severity of both soft tissue and bone lesions, when present.

Finite Adaptation and Multistep Moves in the Metropolis-Hastings Algorithm for Variable Selection in Genome-Wide Association Analysis

PubMed Central

Peltola, Tomi; Marttinen, Pekka; Vehtari, Aki

2012-01-01

High-dimensional datasets with large amounts of redundant information are nowadays available for hypothesis-free exploration of scientific questions. A particular case is genome-wide association analysis, where variations in the genome are searched for effects on disease or other traits. Bayesian variable selection has been demonstrated as a possible analysis approach, which can account for the multifactorial nature of the genetic effects in a linear regression model. Yet, the computation presents a challenge and application to large-scale data is not routine. Here, we study aspects of the computation using the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm for the variable selection: finite adaptation of the proposal distributions, multistep moves for changing the inclusion state of multiple variables in a single proposal and multistep move size adaptation. We also experiment with a delayed rejection step for the multistep moves. Results on simulated and real data show increase in the sampling efficiency. We also demonstrate that with application specific proposals, the approach can overcome a specific mixing problem in real data with 3822 individuals and 1,051,811 single nucleotide polymorphisms and uncover a variant pair with synergistic effect on the studied trait. Moreover, we illustrate multimodality in the real dataset related to a restrictive prior distribution on the genetic effect sizes and advocate a more flexible alternative. PMID:23166669

The role of stressors and psychosocial variables in the stress process: a study of chronic caregiver stress.

PubMed

Vedhara, K; Shanks, N; Anderson, S; Lightman, S

2000-01-01

An investigation was conducted 1) to examine the relative importance of stressor types (ie, daily hassles, caregiving-specific stressors, and life events) on the stress response, 2) to assess the stability of relationships between psychosocial variables and stress over a 6-month period, and 3) to explore how the nature and magnitude of the contributions made by stressors and psychosocial factors to the stress process varied according to the qualitative characteristics of the stress response (ie, anxiety, depression, and stress). Fifty spousal caregivers of patients with dementia were recruited and asked to participate in a detailed psychosocial evaluation at 3-month intervals; the evaluation involved measurement of stressor frequency, psychosocial variables, and indices of the stress response (ie, anxiety, depression, and stress). The data revealed that the effects of stressors and psychosocial factors on the stress response were considerable (accounting for 49-63% of the variance in stress response measures). Furthermore, there was some evidence of stability in the effects of the stressor and mediator variables on the stress response. Specifically, the contributions of life events and caregiver difficulties were largely consistent at both 3 and 6 months, and the psychosocial factor of "reactive coping and self-appraisal" influenced all three stress response indices at both 3 and 6 months. There is some evidence of stability in the effects of stressors and psychosocial variables on the stress process over a 6-month period. However, it would also seem that the nature of the stress process differs according to the qualitative characteristics of the stress response.

Does Tropical Forest Fragmentation Increase Long-Term Variability of Butterfly Communities?

PubMed Central

Leidner, Allison K.; Haddad, Nick M.; Lovejoy, Thomas E.

2010-01-01

Habitat fragmentation is a major driver of biodiversity loss. Yet, the overall effects of fragmentation on biodiversity may be obscured by differences in responses among species. These opposing responses to fragmentation may be manifest in higher variability in species richness and abundance (termed hyperdynamism), and in predictable changes in community composition. We tested whether forest fragmentation causes long-term hyperdynamism in butterfly communities, a taxon that naturally displays large variations in species richness and community composition. Using a dataset from an experimentally fragmented landscape in the central Amazon that spanned 11 years, we evaluated the effect of fragmentation on changes in species richness and community composition through time. Overall, adjusted species richness (adjusted for survey duration) did not differ between fragmented forest and intact forest. However, spatial and temporal variation of adjusted species richness was significantly higher in fragmented forests relative to intact forest. This variation was associated with changes in butterfly community composition, specifically lower proportions of understory shade species and higher proportions of edge species in fragmented forest. Analysis of rarefied species richness, estimated using indices of butterfly abundance, showed no differences between fragmented and intact forest plots in spatial or temporal variation. These results do not contradict the results from adjusted species richness, but rather suggest that higher variability in butterfly adjusted species richness may be explained by changes in butterfly abundance. Combined, these results indicate that butterfly communities in fragmented tropical forests are more variable than in intact forest, and that the natural variability of butterflies was not a buffer against the effects of fragmentation on community dynamics. PMID:20224772

Rapid fixation of non-native alleles revealed by genome-wide SNP analysis of hybrid tiger salamanders.

PubMed

Fitzpatrick, Benjamin M; Johnson, Jarrett R; Kump, D Kevin; Shaffer, H Bradley; Smith, Jeramiah J; Voss, S Randal

2009-07-24

Hybrid zones represent valuable opportunities to observe evolution in systems that are unusually dynamic and where the potential for the origin of novelty and rapid adaptation co-occur with the potential for dysfunction. Recently initiated hybrid zones are particularly exciting evolutionary experiments because ongoing natural selection on novel genetic combinations can be studied in ecological time. Moreover, when hybrid zones involve native and introduced species, complex genetic patterns present important challenges for conservation policy. To assess variation of admixture dynamics, we scored a large panel of markers in five wild hybrid populations formed when Barred Tiger Salamanders were introduced into the range of California Tiger Salamanders. At three of 64 markers, introduced alleles have largely displaced native alleles within the hybrid populations. Another marker (GNAT1) showed consistent heterozygote deficits in the wild, and this marker was associated with embryonic mortality in laboratory F2's. Other deviations from equilibrium expectations were idiosyncratic among breeding ponds, consistent with highly stochastic demographic effects. While most markers retain native and introduced alleles in expected proportions, strong selection appears to be eliminating native alleles at a smaller set of loci. Such rapid fixation of alleles is detectable only in recently formed hybrid zones, though it might be representative of dynamics that frequently occur in nature. These results underscore the variable and mosaic nature of hybrid genomes and illustrate the potency of recombination and selection in promoting variable, and often unpredictable genetic outcomes. Introgression of a few, strongly selected introduced alleles should not necessarily affect the conservation status of California Tiger Salamanders, but suggests that genetically pure populations of this endangered species will be difficult to maintain.

A Multi-Scale Approach to Investigating the Red-Crowned Crane–Habitat Relationship in the Yellow River Delta Nature Reserve, China: Implications for Conservation

PubMed Central

Cao, Mingchang; Xu, Haigen; Le, Zhifang; Zhu, Mingchang; Cao, Yun

2015-01-01

The red-crowned crane (Grus japonensis (Statius Müller, 1776)) is a rare and endangered species that lives in wetlands. In this study, we used variance partitioning and hierarchical partitioning methods to explore the red-crowned crane–habitat relationship at multiple scales in the Yellow River Delta Nature Reserve (YRDNR). In addition, we used habitat modeling to identify the cranes’ habitat distribution pattern and protection gaps in the YRDNR. The variance partitioning results showed that habitat variables accounted for a substantially larger total and pure variation in crane occupancy than the variation accounted for by spatial variables at the first level. Landscape factors had the largest total (45.13%) and independent effects (17.42%) at the second level. The hierarchical partitioning results showed that the percentage of seepweed tidal flats were the main limiting factor at the landscape scale. Vegetation coverage contributed the greatest independent explanatory power at the plot scale, and patch area was the predominant factor at the patch scale. Our habitat modeling results showed that crane suitable habitat covered more than 26% of the reserve area and that there remained a large protection gap with an area of 20,455 ha, which accounted for 69.51% of the total suitable habitat of cranes. Our study indicates that landscape and plot factors make a relatively large contribution to crane occupancy and that the focus of conservation effects should be directed toward landscape- and plot-level factors by enhancing the protection of seepweed tidal flats, tamarisk-seepweed tidal flats, reed marshes and other natural wetlands. We propose that efforts should be made to strengthen wetland restoration, adjust functional zoning maps, and improve the management of human disturbance in the YRDNR. PMID:26065417

Possible Noise Nature of Elsässer Variable z- in Highly Alfvénic Solar Wind Fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, X.; Tu, C.-Y.; He, J.-S.; Wang, L.-H.; Yao, S.; Zhang, L.

2018-01-01

It has been a long-standing debate on the nature of Elsässer variable z- observed in the solar wind fluctuations. It is widely believed that z- represents inward propagating Alfvén waves and interacts nonlinearly with z+ (outward propagating Alfvén waves) to generate energy cascade. However, z- variations sometimes show a feature of convective structures. Here we present a new data analysis on autocorrelation functions of z- in order to get some definite information on its nature. We find that there is usually a large drop on the z- autocorrelation function when the solar wind fluctuations are highly Alfvénic. The large drop observed by Helios 2 spacecraft near 0.3 AU appears at the first nonzero time lag τ = 81 s, where the value of the autocorrelation coefficient drops to 25%-65% of that at τ = 0 s. Beyond the first nonzero time lag, the autocorrelation coefficient decreases gradually to zero. The drop of z- correlation function also appears in the Wind observations near 1 AU. These features of the z- correlation function may suggest that z- fluctuations consist of two components: high-frequency white noise and low-frequency pseudo structures, which correspond to flat and steep parts of z- power spectrum, respectively. This explanation is confirmed by doing a simple test on an artificial time series, which is obtained from the superposition of a random data series on its smoothed sequence. Our results suggest that in highly Alfvénic fluctuations, z- may not contribute importantly to the interactions with z+ to produce energy cascade.

Environmental impacts of high penetration renewable energy scenarios for Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berrill, Peter; Arvesen, Anders; Scholz, Yvonne; Gils, Hans Christian; Hertwich, Edgar G.

2016-01-01

The prospect of irreversible environmental alterations and an increasingly volatile climate pressurises societies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, thereby mitigating climate change impacts. As global electricity demand continues to grow, particularly if considering a future with increased electrification of heat and transport sectors, the imperative to decarbonise our electricity supply becomes more urgent. This letter implements outputs of a detailed power system optimisation model into a prospective life cycle analysis framework in order to present a life cycle analysis of 44 electricity scenarios for Europe in 2050, including analyses of systems based largely on low-carbon fossil energy options (natural gas, and coal with carbon capture and storage (CCS)) as well as systems with high shares of variable renewable energy (VRE) (wind and solar). VRE curtailments and impacts caused by extra energy storage and transmission capabilities necessary in systems based on VRE are taken into account. The results show that systems based largely on VRE perform much better regarding climate change and other impact categories than the investigated systems based on fossil fuels. The climate change impacts from Europe for the year 2050 in a scenario using primarily natural gas are 1400 Tg CO2-eq while in a scenario using mostly coal with CCS the impacts are 480 Tg CO2-eq. Systems based on renewables with an even mix of wind and solar capacity generate impacts of 120-140 Tg CO2-eq. Impacts arising as a result of wind and solar variability do not significantly compromise the climate benefits of utilising these energy resources. VRE systems require more infrastructure leading to much larger mineral resource depletion impacts than fossil fuel systems, and greater land occupation impacts than systems based on natural gas. Emissions and resource requirements from wind power are smaller than from solar power.

Rapid fixation of non-native alleles revealed by genome-wide SNP analysis of hybrid tiger salamanders

PubMed Central

Fitzpatrick, Benjamin M; Johnson, Jarrett R; Kump, D Kevin; Shaffer, H Bradley; Smith, Jeramiah J; Voss, S Randal

2009-01-01

Background Hybrid zones represent valuable opportunities to observe evolution in systems that are unusually dynamic and where the potential for the origin of novelty and rapid adaptation co-occur with the potential for dysfunction. Recently initiated hybrid zones are particularly exciting evolutionary experiments because ongoing natural selection on novel genetic combinations can be studied in ecological time. Moreover, when hybrid zones involve native and introduced species, complex genetic patterns present important challenges for conservation policy. To assess variation of admixture dynamics, we scored a large panel of markers in five wild hybrid populations formed when Barred Tiger Salamanders were introduced into the range of California Tiger Salamanders. Results At three of 64 markers, introduced alleles have largely displaced native alleles within the hybrid populations. Another marker (GNAT1) showed consistent heterozygote deficits in the wild, and this marker was associated with embryonic mortality in laboratory F2's. Other deviations from equilibrium expectations were idiosyncratic among breeding ponds, consistent with highly stochastic demographic effects. Conclusion While most markers retain native and introduced alleles in expected proportions, strong selection appears to be eliminating native alleles at a smaller set of loci. Such rapid fixation of alleles is detectable only in recently formed hybrid zones, though it might be representative of dynamics that frequently occur in nature. These results underscore the variable and mosaic nature of hybrid genomes and illustrate the potency of recombination and selection in promoting variable, and often unpredictable genetic outcomes. Introgression of a few, strongly selected introduced alleles should not necessarily affect the conservation status of California Tiger Salamanders, but suggests that genetically pure populations of this endangered species will be difficult to maintain. PMID:19630983

Shark baselines and the conservation role of remote coral reef ecosystems

PubMed Central

Ferretti, Francesco; Curnick, David; Liu, Keli; Romanov, Evgeny V.; Block, Barbara A.

2018-01-01

Scientific monitoring has recorded only a recent fraction of the oceans’ alteration history. This biases our understanding of marine ecosystems. Remote coral reef ecosystems are often considered pristine because of high shark abundance. However, given the long history and global nature of fishing, sharks’ vulnerability, and the ecological consequences of shark declines, these states may not be natural. In the Chagos archipelago, one of the remotest coral reef systems on the planet, protected by a very large marine reserve, we integrated disparate fisheries and scientific survey data to reconstruct baselines and long-term population trajectories of two dominant sharks. In 2012, we estimated 571,310 gray reef and 31,693 silvertip sharks, about 79 and 7% of their baseline levels. These species were exploited longer and more intensively than previously thought and responded to fishing and protection with variable and compensatory population trajectories. Our approach highlights the value of integrative and historical analyses to evaluate large marine ecosystems currently considered pristine. PMID:29532033

Quality variations in black musli (curculigo orchioides gaertn.).

PubMed

Mathew, P P Joy Samuel; Savithri, K E; Skaria, Baby P; Kurien, Kochurani

2004-07-01

Black musli (Curculigo orchioides Gaertn.) one of the ayurvedic dasapushpa and a rejuvenating and aphrodisiac drug. Is on the verge of extinction and needs to be conserved and cultivated. Large variations are also observed in the quality of the crude drug available in the market. Study on the quality of C. orchioides in natural habitat, under cultivation and in trade in south India showed that there was considerable variation with biotypes and habitats. Drugs collected form the natural habitat was superior in quality to that produced by cultivation. Among the market samples collected from the various Zones of kerala, those from the High Ranges were superior in most of the quality parameters, which indicated its superiority for high quality drug formulation. Among the southern states, Tamil Nadu samples ranked next to High Range samples in this respect. There exists large variability in the market samples and there is felt-need for proper standardization of the crude drug for ensuring quality in the drug formulations.

Large near-term projected snowpack loss over the western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fyfe, John C.; Derksen, Chris; Mudryk, Lawrence; Flato, Gregory M.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Swart, Neil C.; Molotch, Noah P.; Zhang, Xuebin; Wan, Hui; Arora, Vivek K.; Scinocca, John; Jiao, Yanjun

2017-04-01

Peak runoff in streams and rivers of the western United States is strongly influenced by melting of accumulated mountain snowpack. A significant decline in this resource has a direct connection to streamflow, with substantial economic and societal impacts. Observations and reanalyses indicate that between the 1980s and 2000s, there was a 10-20% loss in the annual maximum amount of water contained in the region's snowpack. Here we show that this loss is consistent with results from a large ensemble of climate simulations forced with natural and anthropogenic changes, but is inconsistent with simulations forced by natural changes alone. A further loss of up to 60% is projected within the next 30 years. Uncertainties in loss estimates depend on the size and the rate of response to continued anthropogenic forcing and the magnitude and phasing of internal decadal variability. The projected losses have serious implications for the hydropower, municipal and agricultural sectors in the region.

A regularized vortex-particle mesh method for large eddy simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spietz, H. J.; Walther, J. H.; Hejlesen, M. M.

2017-11-01

We present recent developments of the remeshed vortex particle-mesh method for simulating incompressible fluid flow. The presented method relies on a parallel higher-order FFT based solver for the Poisson equation. Arbitrary high order is achieved through regularization of singular Green's function solutions to the Poisson equation and recently we have derived novel high order solutions for a mixture of open and periodic domains. With this approach the simulated variables may formally be viewed as the approximate solution to the filtered Navier Stokes equations, hence we use the method for Large Eddy Simulation by including a dynamic subfilter-scale model based on test-filters compatible with the aforementioned regularization functions. Further the subfilter-scale model uses Lagrangian averaging, which is a natural candidate in light of the Lagrangian nature of vortex particle methods. A multiresolution variation of the method is applied to simulate the benchmark problem of the flow past a square cylinder at Re = 22000 and the obtained results are compared to results from the literature.

Natural bounds on herbivorous coral reef fishes.

PubMed

Heenan, Adel; Hoey, Andrew S; Williams, Gareth J; Williams, Ivor D

2016-11-30

Humans are an increasingly dominant driver of Earth's biological communities, but differentiating human impacts from natural drivers of ecosystem state is crucial. Herbivorous fish play a key role in maintaining coral dominance on coral reefs, and are widely affected by human activities, principally fishing. We assess the relative importance of human and biophysical (habitat and oceanographic) drivers on the biomass of five herbivorous functional groups among 33 islands in the central and western Pacific Ocean. Human impacts were clear for some, but not all, herbivore groups. Biomass of browsers, large excavators, and of all herbivores combined declined rapidly with increasing human population density, whereas grazers, scrapers, and detritivores displayed no relationship. Sea-surface temperature had significant but opposing effects on the biomass of detritivores (positive) and browsers (negative). Similarly, the biomass of scrapers, grazers, and detritivores correlated with habitat structural complexity; however, relationships were group specific. Finally, the biomass of browsers and large excavators was related to island geomorphology, both peaking on low-lying islands and atolls. The substantial variability in herbivore populations explained by natural biophysical drivers highlights the need for locally appropriate management targets on coral reefs. © 2016 The Authors.

A Hybrid Algorithm for Period Analysis from Multiband Data with Sparse and Irregular Sampling for Arbitrary Light-curve Shapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saha, Abhijit; Vivas, A. Katherina

2017-12-01

Ongoing and future surveys with repeat imaging in multiple bands are producing (or will produce) time-spaced measurements of brightness, resulting in the identification of large numbers of variable sources in the sky. A large fraction of these are periodic variables: compilations of these are of scientific interest for a variety of purposes. Unavoidably, the data sets from many such surveys not only have sparse sampling, but also have embedded frequencies in the observing cadence that beat against the natural periodicities of any object under investigation. Such limitations can make period determination ambiguous and uncertain. For multiband data sets with asynchronous measurements in multiple passbands, we wish to maximally use the information on periodicity in a manner that is agnostic of differences in the light-curve shapes across the different channels. Given large volumes of data, computational efficiency is also at a premium. This paper develops and presents a computationally economic method for determining periodicity that combines the results from two different classes of period-determination algorithms. The underlying principles are illustrated through examples. The effectiveness of this approach for combining asynchronously sampled measurements in multiple observables that share an underlying fundamental frequency is also demonstrated.

Climate and Physiography Predict Mercury Concentrations in Game Fish Species in Quebec Lakes Better than Anthropogenic Disturbances.

PubMed

Lucotte, Marc; Paquet, Serge; Moingt, Matthieu

2016-05-01

The fluctuations of mercury levels (Hg) in fish consumed by sport fishers in North-Eastern America depend upon a plethora of interrelated biological and abiological factors. To identify the dominant factors ultimately controlling fish Hg concentrations, we compiled mercury levels (Hg) during the 1976-2010 period in 90 large natural lakes in Quebec (Canada) for two major game species: northern pike (Esox lucius) and walleye (Sander vitreus). Our statistical analysis included 28 geographic information system variables and 15 climatic variables, including sulfate deposition. Higher winter temperatures explained 36% of the variability in higher walleye growth rates, in turn accounting for 54% of the variability in lower Hg concentrations. For northern pike, the dominance of a flat topography in the watershed explained 31% of the variability in lower Hg concentrations. Higher mean annual temperatures explained 27% of the variability in higher pike Hg concentrations. Pelagic versus littoral preferred habitats for walleye and pike respectively could explain the contrasted effect of temperature between the two species. Heavy logging could only explain 2% of the increase in walleye Hg concentrations. The influence of mining on fish Hg concentrations appeared to be masked by climatic effects.

Blazar Variability from Turbulence in Jets Launched by Magnetically Arrested Accretion Flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O' Riordan, Michael; Pe'er, Asaf; McKinney, Jonathan C.

2017-07-01

Blazars show variability on timescales ranging from minutes to years, the former being comparable to and in some cases even shorter than the light-crossing time of the central black hole. The observed γ-ray light curves can be described by a power-law power density spectrum (PDS), with a similar index for both BL Lacs and flat-spectrum radio quasars. We show that this variability can be produced by turbulence in relativistic jets launched by magnetically arrested accretion flows (MADs). We perform radiative transport calculations on the turbulent, highly magnetized jet launching region of a MAD with a rapidly rotating supermassive black hole. The resulting synchrotron and synchrotron self-Compton emission, originating from close to the black hole horizon, is highly variable. This variability is characterized by PDS, which is remarkably similar to the observed power-law spectrum at frequencies less than a few per day. Furthermore, turbulence in the jet launching region naturally produces fluctuations in the plasma on scales much smaller than the horizon radius. We speculate that similar turbulent processes, operating in the jet at large radii (and therefore a high bulk Lorentz factor), are responsible for blazar variability over many decades in frequency, including on minute timescales.

Classification of ROTSE Variable Stars using Machine Learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wozniak, P. R.; Akerlof, C.; Amrose, S.; Brumby, S.; Casperson, D.; Gisler, G.; Kehoe, R.; Lee, B.; Marshall, S.; McGowan, K. E.; McKay, T.; Perkins, S.; Priedhorsky, W.; Rykoff, E.; Smith, D. A.; Theiler, J.; Vestrand, W. T.; Wren, J.; ROTSE Collaboration

2001-12-01

We evaluate several Machine Learning algorithms as potential tools for automated classification of variable stars. Using the ROTSE sample of ~1800 variables from a pilot study of 5% of the whole sky, we compare the effectiveness of a supervised technique (Support Vector Machines, SVM) versus unsupervised methods (K-means and Autoclass). There are 8 types of variables in the sample: RR Lyr AB, RR Lyr C, Delta Scuti, Cepheids, detached eclipsing binaries, contact binaries, Miras and LPVs. Preliminary results suggest a very high ( ~95%) efficiency of SVM in isolating a few best defined classes against the rest of the sample, and good accuracy ( ~70-75%) for all classes considered simultaneously. This includes some degeneracies, irreducible with the information at hand. Supervised methods naturally outperform unsupervised methods, in terms of final error rate, but unsupervised methods offer many advantages for large sets of unlabeled data. Therefore, both types of methods should be considered as promising tools for mining vast variability surveys. We project that there are more than 30,000 periodic variables in the ROTSE-I data base covering the entire local sky between V=10 and 15.5 mag. This sample size is already stretching the time capabilities of human analysts.

Coral Records of 20th Century Central Tropical Pacific SST and Salinity: Signatures of Natural and Anthropogenic Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nurhati, I. S.; Cobb, K.; Di Lorenzo, E.

2011-12-01

Accurate forecasts of regional climate changes in many regions of the world largely depend on quantifying anthropogenic trends in tropical Pacific climate against its rich background of interannual to decadal-scale climate variability. However, the strong natural climate variability combined with limited instrumental climate datasets have obscured potential anthropogenic climate signals in the region. Here, we present coral-based sea-surface temperature (SST) and salinity proxy records over the 20th century (1898-1998) from the central tropical Pacific - a region sensitive to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) whose variability strongly impacts the global climate. The SST and salinity proxy records are reconstructed via coral Sr/Ca and the oxygen isotopic composition of seawater (δ18Osw), respectively. On interannual (2-7yr) timescales, the SST proxy record tracks both eastern- and central-Pacific flavors of ENSO variability (R=0.65 and R=0.67, respectively). Interannual-scale salinity variability in our coral record highlights profound differences in precipitation and ocean advections during the two flavors of ENSO. On decadal (8yr-lowpassed) timescales, the central tropical Pacific SST and salinity proxy records are controlled by different sets of dynamics linked to the leading climate modes of North Pacific climate variability. Decadal-scale central tropical Pacific SST is highly correlated to the recently discovered North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO; R=-0.85), reflecting strong dynamical links between the central Pacific warming mode and extratropical decadal climate variability. Whereas decadal-scale salinity variations in the central tropical Pacific are significantly correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO; R=0.54), providing a better understanding on low-frequency salinity variability in the region. Having characterized natural climate variability in this region, the coral record shows a +0.5°C warming trend throughout the last century. However, the most prominent feature of the new coral records is an unprecedented freshening trend since the mid-20th century, in line with global climate models (GCMs) projections of enhanced hydrological patterns (wet areas are getting wetter and vice versa) under greenhouse forcing. Taken together, the coral records provide key constraints on tropical Pacific climate trends that may improve regional climate projections in areas affected by tropical Pacific climate variability.
Central Tropical Pacific SST and Salinity Proxy Records

Understanding ocean acidification impacts on organismal to ecological scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Andersson, Andreas J; Kline, David I; Edmunds, Peter J; Archer, Stephen D; Bednaršek, Nina; Carpenter, Robert C; Chadsey, Meg; Goldstein, Philip; Grottoli, Andrea G.; Hurst, Thomas P; King, Andrew L; Kübler, Janet E.; Kuffner, Ilsa B.; Mackey, Katherine R M; Menge, Bruce A.; Paytan, Adina; Riebesell, Ulf; Schnetzer, Astrid; Warner, Mark E; Zimmerman, Richard C

2015-01-01

Ocean acidification (OA) research seeks to understand how marine ecosystems and global elemental cycles will respond to changes in seawater carbonate chemistry in combination with other environmental perturbations such as warming, eutrophication, and deoxygenation. Here, we discuss the effectiveness and limitations of current research approaches used to address this goal. A diverse combination of approaches is essential to decipher the consequences of OA to marine organisms, communities, and ecosystems. Consequently, the benefits and limitations of each approach must be considered carefully. Major research challenges involve experimentally addressing the effects of OA in the context of large natural variability in seawater carbonate system parameters and other interactive variables, integrating the results from different research approaches, and scaling results across different temporal and spatial scales.

On the convergence of a fully discrete scheme of LES type to physically relevant solutions of the incompressible Navier-Stokes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berselli, Luigi C.; Spirito, Stefano

2018-06-01

Obtaining reliable numerical simulations of turbulent fluids is a challenging problem in computational fluid mechanics. The large eddy simulation (LES) models are efficient tools to approximate turbulent fluids, and an important step in the validation of these models is the ability to reproduce relevant properties of the flow. In this paper, we consider a fully discrete approximation of the Navier-Stokes-Voigt model by an implicit Euler algorithm (with respect to the time variable) and a Fourier-Galerkin method (in the space variables). We prove the convergence to weak solutions of the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations satisfying the natural local entropy condition, hence selecting the so-called physically relevant solutions.

Nitrogen leaching from natural ecosystems under global change: a modelling study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braakhekke, Maarten C.; Rebel, Karin T.; Dekker, Stefan C.; Smith, Benjamin; Beusen, Arthur H. W.; Wassen, Martin J.

2017-12-01

To study global nitrogen (N) leaching from natural ecosystems under changing N deposition, climate, and atmospheric CO2, we performed a factorial model experiment for the period 1901-2006 with the N-enabled global terrestrial ecosystem model LPJ-GUESS (Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator). In eight global simulations, we used either the true transient time series of N deposition, climate, and atmospheric CO2 as input or kept combinations of these drivers constant at initial values. The results show that N deposition is globally the strongest driver of simulated N leaching, individually causing an increase of 88 % by 1997-2006 relative to pre-industrial conditions. Climate change led globally to a 31 % increase in N leaching, but the size and direction of change varied among global regions: leaching generally increased in regions with high soil organic carbon storage and high initial N status, and decreased in regions with a positive trend in vegetation productivity or decreasing precipitation. Rising atmospheric CO2 generally caused decreased N leaching (33 % globally), with strongest effects in regions with high productivity and N availability. All drivers combined resulted in a rise of N leaching by 73 % with strongest increases in Europe, eastern North America and South-East Asia, where N deposition rates are highest. Decreases in N leaching were predicted for the Amazon and northern India. We further found that N loss by fire regionally is a large term in the N budget, associated with lower N leaching, particularly in semi-arid biomes. Predicted global N leaching from natural lands rose from 13.6 Tg N yr-1 in 1901-1911 to 18.5 Tg N yr-1 in 1997-2006, accounting for reductions of natural land cover. Ecosystem N status (quantified as the reduction of vegetation productivity due to N limitation) shows a similar positive temporal trend but large spatial variability. Interestingly, this variability is more strongly related to vegetation type than N input. Similarly, the relationship between N status and (relative) N leaching is highly variable due to confounding factors such as soil water fluxes, fire occurrence, and growing season length. Nevertheless, our results suggest that regions with very high N deposition rates are approaching a state of N saturation.

Large plasmids of Escherichia coli and Salmonella encode highly diverse arrays of accessory genes on common replicon families.

PubMed

Williams, Laura E; Wireman, Joy; Hilliard, Valda C; Summers, Anne O

2013-01-01

Plasmids are important in evolution and adaptation of host bacteria, yet we lack a comprehensive picture of their own natural variation. We used replicon typing and RFLP analysis to assess diversity and distribution of plasmids in the ECOR, SARA, SARB and SARC reference collections of Escherichia coli and Salmonella. Plasmids, especially large (≥30 kb) plasmids, are abundant in these collections. Host species and genotype clearly impact plasmid prevalence; plasmids are more abundant in ECOR than SAR, but, within ECOR, subgroup B2 strains have the fewest large plasmids. The majority of large plasmids have unique RFLP patterns, suggesting high variation, even within dominant replicon families IncF and IncI1. We found only four conserved plasmid types within ECOR, none of which are widely distributed. Within SAR, conserved plasmid types are primarily serovar-specific, including a pSLT-like plasmid in 13 Typhimurium strains. Conservation of pSLT contrasts with variability of other plasmids, suggesting evolution of serovar-specific virulence plasmids is distinct from that of most enterobacterial plasmids. We sequenced a conserved serovar Heidelberg plasmid but did not detect virulence or antibiotic resistance genes. Our data illustrate the high degree of natural variation in large plasmids of E. coli and Salmonella, even among plasmids sharing backbone genes. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Can data from disparate long-term fish monitoring programs be used to increase our understanding of regional and continental trends in large river assemblages?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Counihan, Timothy D.; Waite, Ian R.; Casper, Andrew F.; Ward, David L.; Sauer, Jennifer S.; Irwin, Elise R.; Chapman, Colin G.; Ickes, Brian; Paukert, Craig P.; Kosovich, John J.; Bayer, Jennifer M.

2018-01-01

Understanding trends in the diverse resources provided by large rivers will help balance tradeoffs among stakeholders and inform strategies to mitigate the effects of landscape scale stressors such as climate change and invasive species. Absent a cohesive coordinated effort to assess trends in important large river resources, a logical starting point is to assess our ability to draw inferences from existing efforts. In this paper, we use a common analytical framework to analyze data from five disparate fish monitoring programs to better understand the nature of spatial and temporal trends in large river fish assemblages. We evaluated data from programs that monitor fishes in the Colorado, Columbia, Illinois, Mississippi, and Tallapoosa rivers using non-metric dimensional scaling ordinations and associated tests to evaluate trends in fish assemblage structure and native fish biodiversity. Our results indicate that fish assemblages exhibited significant spatial and temporal trends in all five of the rivers. We also document native species diversity trends that were variable within and between rivers and generally more evident in rivers with higher species richness and programs of longer duration. We discuss shared and basin-specific landscape level stressors. Having a basic understanding of the nature and extent of trends in fish assemblages is a necessary first step towards understanding factors affecting biodiversity and fisheries in large rivers.

Can data from disparate long-term fish monitoring programs be used to increase our understanding of regional and continental trends in large river assemblages?

PubMed Central

Waite, Ian R.; Casper, Andrew F.; Ward, David L.; Sauer, Jennifer S.; Irwin, Elise R.; Chapman, Colin G.; Ickes, Brian S.; Paukert, Craig P.; Kosovich, John J.; Bayer, Jennifer M.

2018-01-01

Understanding trends in the diverse resources provided by large rivers will help balance tradeoffs among stakeholders and inform strategies to mitigate the effects of landscape scale stressors such as climate change and invasive species. Absent a cohesive coordinated effort to assess trends in important large river resources, a logical starting point is to assess our ability to draw inferences from existing efforts. In this paper, we use a common analytical framework to analyze data from five disparate fish monitoring programs to better understand the nature of spatial and temporal trends in large river fish assemblages. We evaluated data from programs that monitor fishes in the Colorado, Columbia, Illinois, Mississippi, and Tallapoosa rivers using non-metric dimensional scaling ordinations and associated tests to evaluate trends in fish assemblage structure and native fish biodiversity. Our results indicate that fish assemblages exhibited significant spatial and temporal trends in all five of the rivers. We also document native species diversity trends that were variable within and between rivers and generally more evident in rivers with higher species richness and programs of longer duration. We discuss shared and basin-specific landscape level stressors. Having a basic understanding of the nature and extent of trends in fish assemblages is a necessary first step towards understanding factors affecting biodiversity and fisheries in large rivers. PMID:29364953

Top-quark pairs at high invariant mass: a model-independent discriminator of new physics at the Large Hadron Collider.

PubMed

Barger, Vernon; Han, Tao; Walker, Devin G E

2008-01-25

We study top-quark pair production to probe new physics at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. We propose reconstruction methods for tt[over] semileptonic events and use them to reconstruct the tt[over] invariant mass. The angular distribution of top quarks in their c.m. frame can determine the spin and production subprocess for each new physics resonance. Forward-backward asymmetry and CP-odd variables can be constructed to further delineate the nature of new physics. We parametrize the new resonances with a few generic parameters and show high invariant mass top pair production may provide an early indicator for new physics beyond the standard model.

Near integrability of kink lattice with higher order interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Yun-Guo; Liu, Jia-Zhen; He, Song

2017-11-01

We make use of Manton’s analytical method to investigate the force between kinks and anti-kinks at large distances in 1+1 dimensional field theory. The related potential has infinite order corrections of exponential pattern, and the coefficients for each order are determined. These coefficients can also be obtained by solving the equation of the fluctuations around the vacuum. At the lowest order, the kink lattice represents the Toda lattice. With higher order correction terms, the kink lattice can represent one kind of generic Toda lattice. With only two sites, the kink lattice is classically integrable. If the number of sites of the lattice is larger than two, the kink lattice is not integrable but is a near integrable system. We make use of Flaschka’s variables to study the Lax pair of the kink lattice. These Flaschka’s variables have interesting algebraic relations and non-integrability can be manifested. We also discuss the higher Hamiltonians for the deformed open Toda lattice, which has a similar result to the ordinary deformed Toda. Supported by Shandong Provincial Natural Science Foundation (ZR2014AQ007), National Natural Science Foundation of China (11403015, U1531105), S. He is supported by Max-Planck fellowship in Germany and National Natural Science Foundation of China (11305235)

An estimator for the standard deviation of a natural frequency. II.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schiff, A. J.; Bogdanoff, J. L.

1971-01-01

A method has been presented for estimating the variability of a system's natural frequencies arising from the variability of the system's parameters. The only information required to obtain the estimates is the member variability, in the form of second-order properties, and the natural frequencies and mode shapes of the mean system. It has also been established for the systems studied by means of Monte Carlo estimates that the specification of second-order properties is an adequate description of member variability.

An experimental demonstration of Fisher's principle: evolution of sexual proportion by natural selection.

PubMed Central

Carvalho, A B; Sampaio, M C; Varandas, F R; Klaczko, L B

1998-01-01

Most sexually reproducing species have sexual proportions around 1:1. This major biological phenomenon remained unexplained until 1930, when FISHER proposed that it results from a mechanism of natural selection. Here we report the first experimental test of his model that obeys all its assumptions. We used a naturally occurring X-Y meiotic drive system--the sex-ratio trait of Drosophila mediopunctat--to generate female-biased experimental populations. As predicted by FISHER, these populations evolved toward equal sex proportions due to natural selection, by accumulation of autosomal alleles that direct the parental reproductive effort toward the rare sex. Classical Fisherian evolution is a rather slow mechanism: despite a very large amount of genetic variability, the experimental populations evolved from 16% of males to 32% of males in 49 generations and would take 330 generations (29 years) to reach 49%. This slowness has important implications for species potentially endangered by skewed sexual proportions, such as reptiles with temperature sex determination. PMID:9504919

A supramolecular biomimetic skin combining a wide spectrum of mechanical properties and multiple sensory capabilities.

PubMed

Lei, Zhouyue; Wu, Peiyi

2018-03-19

Biomimetic skin-like materials, capable of adapting shapes to variable environments and sensing external stimuli, are of great significance in a wide range of applications, including artificial intelligence, soft robotics, and smart wearable devices. However, such highly sophisticated intelligence has been mainly found in natural creatures while rarely realized in artificial materials. Herein, we fabricate a type of biomimetic iontronics to imitate natural skins using supramolecular polyelectrolyte hydrogels. The dynamic viscoelastic networks provide the biomimetic skin with a wide spectrum of mechanical properties, including flexible reconfiguration ability, robust elasticity, extremely large stretchability, autonomous self-healability, and recyclability. Meanwhile, polyelectrolytes' ionic conductivity allows multiple sensory capabilities toward temperature, strain, and stress. This work provides not only insights into dynamic interactions and sensing mechanism of supramolecular iontronics, but may also promote the development of biomimetic skins with sophisticated intelligence similar to natural skins.

The epigenome and nature/nurture reunification: a challenge for anthropology.

PubMed

Lock, Margaret

2013-01-01

Recognition among molecular biologists of variables external to the body that can bring about hereditable changes in gene expression or cellular phenotypes has reignited nature/nurture discussion. These epigenetic findings may well set off a new round of somatic reductionism because research is confined largely to the molecular level. A brief review of the late nineteenth-century formulation of the nature/nurture concept is followed by a discussion of the positions taken by Boas and Kroeber on this matter. I then illustrate how current research into Alzheimer's disease uses a reductionistic approach, despite epigenetic findings in this field that make the shortcomings of reductionism clear. In order to transcend the somatic reductionism associated with epigenetics, drawing on concepts of local biologies and embedded bodies, anthropologists can carry out research in which epigenetic findings are contextualized in the specific historical, socio/political, and environmental realities of lived experience.

Mechanical Impact Testing: A Statistical Measurement

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Engel, Carl D.; Herald, Stephen D.; Davis, S. Eddie

2005-01-01

In the decades since the 1950s, when NASA first developed mechanical impact testing of materials, researchers have continued efforts to gain a better understanding of the chemical, mechanical, and thermodynamic nature of the phenomenon. The impact mechanism is a real combustion ignition mechanism that needs understanding in the design of an oxygen system. The use of test data from this test method has been questioned due to lack of a clear method of application of the data and variability found between tests, material batches, and facilities. This effort explores a large database that has accumulated over a number of years and explores its overall nature. Moreover, testing was performed to determine the statistical nature of the test procedure to help establish sample size guidelines for material characterization. The current method of determining a pass/fail criterion based on either light emission or sound report or material charring is questioned.

Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of Pacific Oyster Hemolymph Microbiota across Multiple Scales

PubMed Central

Lokmer, Ana; Goedknegt, M. Anouk; Thieltges, David W.; Fiorentino, Dario; Kuenzel, Sven; Baines, John F.; Wegner, K. Mathias

2016-01-01

Unveiling the factors and processes that shape the dynamics of host associated microbial communities (microbiota) under natural conditions is an important part of understanding and predicting an organism's response to a changing environment. The microbiota is shaped by host (i.e., genetic) factors as well as by the biotic and abiotic environment. Studying natural variation of microbial community composition in multiple host genetic backgrounds across spatial as well as temporal scales represents a means to untangle this complex interplay. Here, we combined a spatially-stratified with a longitudinal sampling scheme within differentiated host genetic backgrounds by reciprocally transplanting Pacific oysters between two sites in the Wadden Sea (Sylt and Texel). To further differentiate contingent site from host genetic effects, we repeatedly sampled the same individuals over a summer season to examine structure, diversity and dynamics of individual hemolymph microbiota following experimental removal of resident microbiota by antibiotic treatment. While a large proportion of microbiome variation could be attributed to immediate environmental conditions, we observed persistent effects of antibiotic treatment and translocation suggesting that hemolymph microbial community dynamics is subject to within-microbiome interactions and host population specific factors. In addition, the analysis of spatial variation revealed that the within-site microenvironmental heterogeneity resulted in high small-scale variability, as opposed to large-scale (between-site) stability. Similarly, considerable within-individual temporal variability was in contrast with the overall temporal stability at the site level. Overall, our longitudinal, spatially-stratified sampling design revealed that variation in hemolymph microbiota is strongly influenced by site and immediate environmental conditions, whereas internal microbiome dynamics and oyster-related factors add to their long-term stability. The combination of small and large scale resolution of spatial and temporal observations therefore represents a crucial but underused tool to study host-associated microbiome dynamics. PMID:27630625

Perspectives on Hydro-Climatic Change in Rivers Sourced From the Khangai Mountains, Mongolia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Venable, N. B.; Fassnacht, S. R.; Tumenjargal, S.; Batbuyan, B.; Odgarav, J.; Sukhbataar, J.; Fernandez-Gimenez, M.; Adyabadam, G.

2012-12-01

Patterns of pastoralism have shaped the Mongolian countryside throughout history. These patterns are largely dictated by seasonal and extreme climate and water conditions. While change has always been a part of the traditional herder lifestyle, the magnitude and variety of impacts imposed by natural and human-induced changes in the last few decades has increased, negatively affecting the coupled natural-human systems of Mongolia. Regional hydrologic impacts from increased mining, irrigation, urbanization, and climate change are challenging to measure and model due to sparse and relatively short meteorological and hydrological records. Characterization of the variability inherent in Mongolian hydrological systems in the international literature remains limited. To quantify recent changes to these systems, several river basins near the Khangai Mountains were analyzed. These basins adjoin and include community-based managed and non-managed grazing lands under study as part of an ongoing National Science Foundation Coupled Natural and Human Systems (NSF-CNH) project. Statistically significant increasing temperatures and decreasing streamflows in the study areas support herder's perceptions of hydro-climatic changes and variability. The results of basin characterization combined with water balance modeling and trend analyses illustrate the future potential for further change in these hydro-climatic systems. Alternate land-uses and herder lifestyle modifications may amplify impacts from climatic change. Recent fieldwork also revealed complex surface-groundwater interactions in some areas that may affect model outcomes. Future explorations of longer-term variability through the use of proxies and the development of hydrologic scenarios will place the current basin analyses in context to more fully assess possible impacts to the hydrologic-human systems of Mongolia.

Genetic signatures of natural selection in a model invasive ascidian

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Yaping; Chen, Yiyong; Yi, Changho; Fong, Jonathan J.; Kim, Won; Rius, Marc; Zhan, Aibin

2017-03-01

Invasive species represent promising models to study species’ responses to rapidly changing environments. Although local adaptation frequently occurs during contemporary range expansion, the associated genetic signatures at both population and genomic levels remain largely unknown. Here, we use genome-wide gene-associated microsatellites to investigate genetic signatures of natural selection in a model invasive ascidian, Ciona robusta. Population genetic analyses of 150 individuals sampled in Korea, New Zealand, South Africa and Spain showed significant genetic differentiation among populations. Based on outlier tests, we found high incidence of signatures of directional selection at 19 loci. Hitchhiking mapping analyses identified 12 directional selective sweep regions, and all selective sweep windows on chromosomes were narrow (~8.9 kb). Further analyses indentified 132 candidate genes under selection. When we compared our genetic data and six crucial environmental variables, 16 putatively selected loci showed significant correlation with these environmental variables. This suggests that the local environmental conditions have left significant signatures of selection at both population and genomic levels. Finally, we identified “plastic” genomic regions and genes that are promising regions to investigate evolutionary responses to rapid environmental change in C. robusta.

Large-scale natural gradient tracer test in sand and gravel, Cape Cod, Massachusetts: 3. Hydraulic conductivity variability and calculated macrodispersivities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hess, Kathryn M.; Wolf, Steven H.; Celia, Michael A.

1992-01-01

Hydraulic conductivity (K) variability in a sand and gravel aquifer on Cape Cod, Massachusetts, was measured and subsequently used in stochastic transport theories to estimate macrodispersivities. Nearly 1500 K measurements were obtained by borehole flowmeter tests and permeameter analyses of cores. The geometric mean for the flowmeter tests (0.11 cm/s) is similar to that estimated from other field tests. The mean for the permeameter tests (0.035 cm/s) is significantly lower, possibly because of compaction of the cores. The variance for the flowmeter (0.24) is also greater than that for the permeameter (0.14). Geostatistical analyses applying negative exponential models with and without nuggets reveal similar spatial correlation structures for the two data sets. Estimated correlation scales range from 2.9 to 8 m in the horizontal and from 0.18 to 0.38 m in the vertical. Estimates of asymptotic longitudinal dispersivity (b.35–0.78 m) are similar in magnitude to that observed in the natural gradient tracer test (0.96 m) previously conducted at this site.

Dredging-induced nutrient release from sediments to the water column in a southeastern saltmarsh tidal creek.

PubMed

Lohrer, Andrew M; Wetz, Jennifer Jarrell

2003-09-01

Dredging is a large-scale anthropogenic disturbance agent in coastal and estuarine habitats that can profoundly affect water quality. We examined the impact of a small-scale dredging operation in a salt marsh in South Carolina by comparing nutrient levels (NH(4)(+), NO(x), PO(4)(-)) and total suspended solid concentrations before and during dredging activities. Nutrient enrichment was evaluated within the context of tidal, seasonal, and inter-annual variability by using long-term water chemistry data provided by the North Inlet-Winyah Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve. The conditions of the dredging permit (i.e., its relatively small scale), the season chosen for the work (fall-winter), the nature of the sediments dredged (coarse-grained), and the amount of natural variability in the estuary's water chemistry (even on a daily time-scale) all minimized the impact of the dredging activities. Results of this study will add to the limited body of empirical data that should be considered in evaluating future dredging permit applications related to shallow estuarine waterways.

Removal of virus to protozoan sized particles in point-of-use ceramic water filters.

PubMed

Bielefeldt, Angela R; Kowalski, Kate; Schilling, Cherylynn; Schreier, Simon; Kohler, Amanda; Scott Summers, R

2010-03-01

The particle removal performance of point-of-use ceramic water filters (CWFs) was characterized in the size range of 0.02-100 microm using carboxylate-coated polystyrene fluorescent microspheres, natural particles and clay. Particles were spiked into dechlorinated tap water, and three successive water batches treated in each of six different CWFs. Particle removal generally increased with increasing size. The removal of virus-sized 0.02 and 0.1 microm spheres were highly variable between the six filters, ranging from 63 to 99.6%. For the 0.5 microm spheres removal was less variable and in the range of 95.1-99.6%, while for the 1, 2, 4.5, and 10 microm spheres removal was >99.6%. Recoating four of the CWFs with colloidal silver solution improved removal of the 0.02 microm spheres, but had no significant effects on the other particle sizes. Log removals of 1.8-3.2 were found for natural turbidity and spiked kaolin clay particles; however, particles as large as 95 microm were detected in filtered water. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The time course of spoken word learning and recognition: studies with artificial lexicons.

PubMed

Magnuson, James S; Tanenhaus, Michael K; Aslin, Richard N; Dahan, Delphine

2003-06-01

The time course of spoken word recognition depends largely on the frequencies of a word and its competitors, or neighbors (similar-sounding words). However, variability in natural lexicons makes systematic analysis of frequency and neighbor similarity difficult. Artificial lexicons were used to achieve precise control over word frequency and phonological similarity. Eye tracking provided time course measures of lexical activation and competition (during spoken instructions to perform visually guided tasks) both during and after word learning, as a function of word frequency, neighbor type, and neighbor frequency. Apparent shifts from holistic to incremental competitor effects were observed in adults and neural network simulations, suggesting such shifts reflect general properties of learning rather than changes in the nature of lexical representations.

Genomic diversity of Saccharomyces cerevisiae yeasts associated with alcoholic fermentation of bacanora produced by artisanal methods.

PubMed

Álvarez-Ainza, M L; Zamora-Quiñonez, K A; Moreno-Ibarra, G M; Acedo-Félix, E

2015-03-01

Bacanora is a spirituous beverage elaborated with Agave angustifolia Haw in an artisanal process. Natural fermentation is mostly performed with native yeasts and bacteria. In this study, 228 strains of yeast like Saccharomyces were isolated from the natural alcoholic fermentation on the production of bacanora. Restriction analysis of the amplified region ITS1-5.8S-ITS2 of the ribosomal DNA genes (RFLPr) were used to confirm the genus, and 182 strains were identified as Saccharomyces cerevisiae. These strains displayed high genomic variability in their chromosomes profiles by karyotyping. Electrophoretic profiles of the strains evaluated showed a large number of chromosomes the size of which ranged between 225 and 2200 kpb approximately.

Mesoscale spatiotemporal variability in a complex host-parasite system influenced by intermediate host body size

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Background Parasites are essential components of natural communities, but the factors that generate skewed distributions of parasite occurrences and abundances across host populations are not well understood. Methods Here, we analyse at a seascape scale the spatiotemporal relationships of parasite exposure and host body-size with the proportion of infected hosts (i.e., prevalence) and aggregation of parasite burden across ca. 150 km of the coast and over 22 months. We predicted that the effects of parasite exposure on prevalence and aggregation are dependent on host body-sizes. We used an indirect host-parasite interaction in which migratory seagulls, sandy-shore molecrabs, and an acanthocephalan worm constitute the definitive hosts, intermediate hosts, and endoparasite, respectively. In such complex systems, increments in the abundance of definitive hosts imply increments in intermediate hosts’ exposure to the parasite’s dispersive stages. Results Linear mixed-effects models showed a significant, albeit highly variable, positive relationship between seagull density and prevalence. This relationship was stronger for small (cephalothorax length >15 mm) than large molecrabs (<15 mm). Independently of seagull density, large molecrabs carried significantly more parasites than small molecrabs. The analysis of the variance-to-mean ratio of per capita parasite burden showed no relationship between seagull density and mean parasite aggregation across host populations. However, the amount of unexplained variability in aggregation was strikingly higher in larger than smaller intermediate hosts. This unexplained variability was driven by a decrease in the mean-variance scaling in heavily infected large molecrabs. Conclusions These results show complex interdependencies between extrinsic and intrinsic population attributes on the structure of host-parasite interactions. We suggest that parasite accumulation—a characteristic of indirect host-parasite interactions—and subsequent increasing mortality rates over ontogeny underpin size-dependent host-parasite dynamics. PMID:28828270

Biochemical Network Stochastic Simulator (BioNetS): software for stochastic modeling of biochemical networks.

PubMed

Adalsteinsson, David; McMillen, David; Elston, Timothy C

2004-03-08

Intrinsic fluctuations due to the stochastic nature of biochemical reactions can have large effects on the response of biochemical networks. This is particularly true for pathways that involve transcriptional regulation, where generally there are two copies of each gene and the number of messenger RNA (mRNA) molecules can be small. Therefore, there is a need for computational tools for developing and investigating stochastic models of biochemical networks. We have developed the software package Biochemical Network Stochastic Simulator (BioNetS) for efficiently and accurately simulating stochastic models of biochemical networks. BioNetS has a graphical user interface that allows models to be entered in a straightforward manner, and allows the user to specify the type of random variable (discrete or continuous) for each chemical species in the network. The discrete variables are simulated using an efficient implementation of the Gillespie algorithm. For the continuous random variables, BioNetS constructs and numerically solves the appropriate chemical Langevin equations. The software package has been developed to scale efficiently with network size, thereby allowing large systems to be studied. BioNetS runs as a BioSpice agent and can be downloaded from http://www.biospice.org. BioNetS also can be run as a stand alone package. All the required files are accessible from http://x.amath.unc.edu/BioNetS. We have developed BioNetS to be a reliable tool for studying the stochastic dynamics of large biochemical networks. Important features of BioNetS are its ability to handle hybrid models that consist of both continuous and discrete random variables and its ability to model cell growth and division. We have verified the accuracy and efficiency of the numerical methods by considering several test systems.

Mesoscale spatiotemporal variability in a complex host-parasite system influenced by intermediate host body size.

PubMed

Rodríguez, Sara M; Valdivia, Nelson

2017-01-01

Parasites are essential components of natural communities, but the factors that generate skewed distributions of parasite occurrences and abundances across host populations are not well understood. Here, we analyse at a seascape scale the spatiotemporal relationships of parasite exposure and host body-size with the proportion of infected hosts (i.e., prevalence) and aggregation of parasite burden across ca. 150 km of the coast and over 22 months. We predicted that the effects of parasite exposure on prevalence and aggregation are dependent on host body-sizes. We used an indirect host-parasite interaction in which migratory seagulls, sandy-shore molecrabs, and an acanthocephalan worm constitute the definitive hosts, intermediate hosts, and endoparasite, respectively. In such complex systems, increments in the abundance of definitive hosts imply increments in intermediate hosts' exposure to the parasite's dispersive stages. Linear mixed-effects models showed a significant, albeit highly variable, positive relationship between seagull density and prevalence. This relationship was stronger for small (cephalothorax length >15 mm) than large molecrabs (<15 mm). Independently of seagull density, large molecrabs carried significantly more parasites than small molecrabs. The analysis of the variance-to-mean ratio of per capita parasite burden showed no relationship between seagull density and mean parasite aggregation across host populations. However, the amount of unexplained variability in aggregation was strikingly higher in larger than smaller intermediate hosts. This unexplained variability was driven by a decrease in the mean-variance scaling in heavily infected large molecrabs. These results show complex interdependencies between extrinsic and intrinsic population attributes on the structure of host-parasite interactions. We suggest that parasite accumulation-a characteristic of indirect host-parasite interactions-and subsequent increasing mortality rates over ontogeny underpin size-dependent host-parasite dynamics.

Large and local-scale influences on physical and chemical characteristics of coastal waters of Western Europe during winter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tréguer, Paul; Goberville, Eric; Barrier, Nicolas; L'Helguen, Stéphane; Morin, Pascal; Bozec, Yann; Rimmelin-Maury, Peggy; Czamanski, Marie; Grossteffan, Emilie; Cariou, Thierry; Répécaud, Michel; Quéméner, Loic

2014-11-01

There is now a strong scientific consensus that coastal marine systems of Western Europe are highly sensitive to the combined effects of natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change. However, it still remains challenging to assess the spatial and temporal scales at which climate influence operates. While large-scale hydro-climatic indices, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) or the East Atlantic Pattern (EAP) and the weather regimes such as the Atlantic Ridge (AR), are known to be relevant predictors of physical processes, changes in coastal waters can also be related to local hydro-meteorological and geochemical forcing. Here, we study the temporal variability of physical and chemical characteristics of coastal waters located at about 48°N over the period 1998-2013 using (1) sea surface temperature, (2) sea surface salinity and (3) nutrient concentration observations for two coastal sites located at the outlet of the Bay of Brest and off Roscoff, (4) river discharges of the major tributaries close to these two sites and (5) regional and local precipitation data over the region of interest. Focusing on the winter months, we characterize the physical and chemical variability of these coastal waters and document changes in both precipitation and river runoffs. Our study reveals that variability in coastal waters is connected to the large-scale North Atlantic atmospheric circulation but is also partly explained by local river influences. Indeed, while the NAO is strongly related to changes in sea surface temperature at the Brest and Roscoff sites, the EAP and the AR have a major influence on precipitations, which in turn modulate river discharges that impact sea surface salinity at the scale of the two coastal stations.

Natural gas projects in the developing world: An empirical evaluation of merits, obstacles, and risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mor, Amit

Significant amounts of natural gas have been discovered in developing countries throughout the years during the course of oil exploration. The vast majority of these resources have not been utilized. Some developing countries may benefit from a carefully planned utilization of their indigenous resources, which can either be exported or used domestically to substitute imported or exportable fuels or feedstock. Governments, potential private sector investors, and financiers have been searching for strategies to promote natural gas schemes, some of which have been in the pipeline for more than two decades. The purpose of this thesis is to identify the crucial factors determining the success or failure of launching natural gas projects in the developing world. The methodology used to evaluate these questions included: (1) establishing a representative sample of natural gas projects in developing countries that were either implemented or failed to materialize during the 1980-1995 period, (2) utilizing a Probit limited dependent variable econometric model in which the explained variable is project success or failure, and (3) choosing representing indicators to reflect the assumed factors affecting project success. The study identified two conditions for project success: (1) the economic viability of the project and (2) securing financing for the investment. The factors that explain the ability or inability of the sponsors to secure financing were: (1) the volume of investment that represented the large capital costs of gas transportation, distribution, and storage, (2) the level of foreign exchange constraint in the host country, and (3) the level of development of the country. The conditions for private sector participation in natural gas projects in developing countries were identified in the study by a Probit model in which the explained variable was private sector participation. The results showed that a critical condition for private sector participation is the financial profitability of a project. Other factors that explained private sector participation and the ability of the private-sector sponsor to secure financing for a project were: (1) the political risk associated with the project, (2) the foreign exchange constraint associated with the project, and (3) whether the project was domestic or export-oriented.

Dynamical variability in Saturn Equatorial Atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sánchez-Lavega, A.; Pérez-Hoyos, S.; Hueso, R.; Rojas, J. F.; French, R. G.; Grupo Ciencias Planetarias Team

2003-05-01

Historical ground-based and recent HST observations show that Saturn's Equatorial Atmosphere is the region where the most intense large-scale dynamical variability took place at cloud level in the planet. Large-scale convective storms (nicknamed the ``Great White Spots") occurred in 1876, 1933 and 1990. The best studied case (the 1990 storm), produced a dramatic change in the cloud aspect in the years following the outburst of September 1990. Subsequently, a new large storm formed in 1994 and from 1996 to 2002 our HST observations showed periods of unusual cloud activity in the southern part of the Equator. This contrast with the aspect observed during the Voyager 1 and 2 encounters in 1980 and 1981 when the Equator was calm, except for some mid-scale plume-like features seen in 1981. Cloud-tracking of the features have revealed a dramatic slow down in the equatorial winds from maximum velocities of ˜ 475 m/s in 1980-1981 to ˜ 275 m/s during 1996-2002, as we have recently reported in Nature, Vol. 423, 623 (2003). We discuss the possibility that seasonal and ring-shadowing effects are involved in generating this activity and variability. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the Spanish MCYT PNAYA 2000-0932. SPH acknowledges a PhD fellowship from the Spanish MECD and RH a post-doc fellowship from Gobierno Vasco. RGF was supported in part by NASA's Planetary Geology and Geophysics Program NAG5-10197 and STSCI Grant GO-08660.01A.

North Atlantic climate variability: The role of the North Atlantic Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurrell, James W.; Deser, Clara

2009-08-01

Marine ecosystems are undergoing rapid change at local and global scales. To understand these changes, including the relative roles of natural variability and anthropogenic effects, and to predict the future state of marine ecosystems requires quantitative understanding of the physics, biogeochemistry and ecology of oceanic systems at mechanistic levels. Central to this understanding is the role played by dominant patterns or "modes" of atmospheric and oceanic variability, which orchestrate coherent variations in climate over large regions with profound impacts on ecosystems. We review the spatial structure of extratropical climate variability over the Northern Hemisphere and, specifically, focus on modes of climate variability over the extratropical North Atlantic. A leading pattern of weather and climate variability over the Northern Hemisphere is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO refers to a redistribution of atmospheric mass between the Arctic and the subtropical Atlantic, and swings from one phase to another producing large changes in surface air temperature, winds, storminess and precipitation over the Atlantic as well as the adjacent continents. The NAO also affects the ocean through changes in heat content, gyre circulations, mixed layer depth, salinity, high latitude deep water formation and sea ice cover. Thus, indices of the NAO have become widely used to document and understand how this mode of variability alters the structure and functioning of marine ecosystems. There is no unique way, however, to define the NAO. Several approaches are discussed including both linear (e.g., principal component analysis) and nonlinear (e.g., cluster analysis) techniques. The former, which have been most widely used, assume preferred atmospheric circulation states come in pairs, in which anomalies of opposite polarity have the same spatial structure. In contrast, nonlinear techniques search for recurrent patterns of a specific amplitude and sign. They reveal, for instance, spatial asymmetries between different phases of the NAO that are likely important for ecological studies. It also follows that there is no universally accepted index to describe the temporal evolution of the NAO. Several of the most common measures are presented and compared. All reveal that there is no preferred time scale of variability for the NAO: large changes occur from one winter to the next and from one decade to the next. There is also a large amount of within-season variability in the patterns of atmospheric circulation of the North Atlantic, so that most winters cannot be characterized solely by a canonical NAO structure. A better understanding of how the NAO responds to external forcing, including sea surface temperature changes in the tropics, stratospheric influences, and increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, is crucial to the current debate on climate variability and change.

North Atlantic climate variability: The role of the North Atlantic Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurrell, James W.; Deser, Clara

2010-02-01

Marine ecosystems are undergoing rapid change at local and global scales. To understand these changes, including the relative roles of natural variability and anthropogenic effects, and to predict the future state of marine ecosystems requires quantitative understanding of the physics, biogeochemistry and ecology of oceanic systems at mechanistic levels. Central to this understanding is the role played by dominant patterns or "modes" of atmospheric and oceanic variability, which orchestrate coherent variations in climate over large regions with profound impacts on ecosystems. We review the spatial structure of extratropical climate variability over the Northern Hemisphere and, specifically, focus on modes of climate variability over the extratropical North Atlantic. A leading pattern of weather and climate variability over the Northern Hemisphere is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO refers to a redistribution of atmospheric mass between the Arctic and the subtropical Atlantic, and swings from one phase to another producing large changes in surface air temperature, winds, storminess and precipitation over the Atlantic as well as the adjacent continents. The NAO also affects the ocean through changes in heat content, gyre circulations, mixed layer depth, salinity, high latitude deep water formation and sea ice cover. Thus, indices of the NAO have become widely used to document and understand how this mode of variability alters the structure and functioning of marine ecosystems. There is no unique way, however, to define the NAO. Several approaches are discussed including both linear (e.g., principal component analysis) and nonlinear (e.g., cluster analysis) techniques. The former, which have been most widely used, assume preferred atmospheric circulation states come in pairs, in which anomalies of opposite polarity have the same spatial structure. In contrast, nonlinear techniques search for recurrent patterns of a specific amplitude and sign. They reveal, for instance, spatial asymmetries between different phases of the NAO that are likely important for ecological studies. It also follows that there is no universally accepted index to describe the temporal evolution of the NAO. Several of the most common measures are presented and compared. All reveal that there is no preferred time scale of variability for the NAO: large changes occur from one winter to the next and from one decade to the next. There is also a large amount of within-season variability in the patterns of atmospheric circulation of the North Atlantic, so that most winters cannot be characterized solely by a canonical NAO structure. A better understanding of how the NAO responds to external forcing, including sea surface temperature changes in the tropics, stratospheric influences, and increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, is crucial to the current debate on climate variability and change.

Efficacy of generic allometric equations for estimating biomass: a test in Japanese natural forests.

PubMed

Ishihara, Masae I; Utsugi, Hajime; Tanouchi, Hiroyuki; Aiba, Masahiro; Kurokawa, Hiroko; Onoda, Yusuke; Nagano, Masahiro; Umehara, Toru; Ando, Makoto; Miyata, Rie; Hiura, Tsutom

2015-07-01

Accurate estimation of tree and forest biomass is key to evaluating forest ecosystem functions and the global carbon cycle. Allometric equations that estimate tree biomass from a set of predictors, such as stem diameter and tree height, are commonly used. Most allometric equations are site specific, usually developed from a small number of trees harvested in a small area, and are either species specific or ignore interspecific differences in allometry. Due to lack of site-specific allometries, local equations are often applied to sites for which they were not originally developed (foreign sites), sometimes leading to large errors in biomass estimates. In this study, we developed generic allometric equations for aboveground biomass and component (stem, branch, leaf, and root) biomass using large, compiled data sets of 1203 harvested trees belonging to 102 species (60 deciduous angiosperm, 32 evergreen angiosperm, and 10 evergreen gymnosperm species) from 70 boreal, temperate, and subtropical natural forests in Japan. The best generic equations provided better biomass estimates than did local equations that were applied to foreign sites. The best generic equations included explanatory variables that represent interspecific differences in allometry in addition to stem diameter, reducing error by 4-12% compared to the generic equations that did not include the interspecific difference. Different explanatory variables were selected for different components. For aboveground and stem biomass, the best generic equations had species-specific wood specific gravity as an explanatory variable. For branch, leaf, and root biomass, the best equations had functional types (deciduous angiosperm, evergreen angiosperm, and evergreen gymnosperm) instead of functional traits (wood specific gravity or leaf mass per area), suggesting importance of other traits in addition to these traits, such as canopy and root architecture. Inclusion of tree height in addition to stem diameter improved the performance of the generic equation only for stem biomass and had no apparent effect on aboveground, branch, leaf, and root biomass at the site level. The development of a generic allometric equation taking account of interspecific differences is an effective approach for accurately estimating aboveground and component biomass in boreal, temperate, and subtropical natural forests.

Improving plot- and regional-scale crop models for simulating impacts of climate variability and extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tao, F.; Rötter, R.

2013-12-01

Many studies on global climate report that climate variability is increasing with more frequent and intense extreme events1. There are quite large uncertainties from both the plot- and regional-scale models in simulating impacts of climate variability and extremes on crop development, growth and productivity2,3. One key to reducing the uncertainties is better exploitation of experimental data to eliminate crop model deficiencies and develop better algorithms that more adequately capture the impacts of extreme events, such as high temperature and drought, on crop performance4,5. In the present study, in a first step, the inter-annual variability in wheat yield and climate from 1971 to 2012 in Finland was investigated. Using statistical approaches the impacts of climate variability and extremes on wheat growth and productivity were quantified. In a second step, a plot-scale model, WOFOST6, and a regional-scale crop model, MCWLA7, were calibrated and validated, and applied to simulate wheat growth and yield variability from 1971-2012. Next, the estimated impacts of high temperature stress, cold damage, and drought stress on crop growth and productivity based on the statistical approaches, and on crop simulation models WOFOST and MCWLA were compared. Then, the impact mechanisms of climate extremes on crop growth and productivity in the WOFOST model and MCWLA model were identified, and subsequently, the various algorithm and impact functions were fitted against the long-term crop trial data. Finally, the impact mechanisms, algorithms and functions in WOFOST model and MCWLA model were improved to better simulate the impacts of climate variability and extremes, particularly high temperature stress, cold damage and drought stress for location-specific and large area climate impact assessments. Our studies provide a good example of how to improve, in parallel, the plot- and regional-scale models for simulating impacts of climate variability and extremes, as needed for better informed decision-making on adaptation strategies. References 1. Coumou, D. & Rahmstorf, S. A decade of extremes. Nature Clim. Change, 2, 491-496 (2012). 2. Rötter, R. P., Carter, T. R., Olesen, J. E. & Porter, J. R. Crop-climate models need an overhaul. Nature Clim. Change, 1, 175-177 (2011). 3. Asseng, S. et al., Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change. Nature Clim. Change. 10.1038/nclimate1916. (2013). 4. Porter, J.R., & Semenov, M., Crop responses to climatic variation . Trans. R. Soc. B., 360, 2021-2035 (2005). 5. Porter, J.R. & Christensen, S. Deconstructing crop processes and models via identities. Plant, Cell and Environment . doi: 10.1111/pce.12107 (2013). 6. Boogaard, H.L., van Diepen C.A., Rötter R.P., Cabrera J.M. & van Laar H.H. User's guide for the WOFOST 7.1 crop growth simulation model and Control Center 1.5, Alterra, Wageningen, The Netherlands. (1998) 7. Tao, F. & Zhang, Z. Climate change, wheat productivity and water use in the North China Plain: a new super-ensemble-based probabilistic projection. Agric. Forest Meteorol., 170, 146-165. (2013).

The Spatial Footprint of Natural Gas-Fired Electricity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jordaan, S. M.; Heath, G.; Macknick, J.; Mohammadi, E.; Ben-Horin, D.; Urrea, V.; Marceau, D.

2015-12-01

Consistent comparisons of the amount of land required for different electricity generation technologies are challenging because land use associated with fossil fuel acquisition and delivery has not been well characterized or empirically grounded. This research focuses on improving estimates of the life cycle land use of natural gas-fired electricity (m2/MWh generated) through the novel combination of inventories of natural gas-related infrastructure, satellite imagery analysis and gas production estimates. We focus on seven counties that represent 98% of the total gas production in the Barnett Shale (Texas), evaluating over 500 sites across five life cycle stages (gas production, gathering, processing, transmission, and power generation as well as produced water disposal). We find that a large fraction of total life cycle land use is related to gathering (midstream) infrastructure, particularly pipelines; access roads related to all stages also contribute a large life cycle share. Results were sensitive to several inputs, including well lifetime, pipeline right of way, number of wells per site, variability of heat rate for electricity generation, and facility lifetime. Through this work, we have demonstrated a novel, highly-resolved and empirical method for estimating life cycle land use from natural gas infrastructure in an important production region. When replicated for other gas production regions and other fuels, the results can enable more empirically-grounded and robust comparisons of the land footprint of alternative energy choices.

Influence of high-latitude warming and land-use changes in the early 20th century northern Eurasian CO2 sink

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bastos, Ana; Peregon, Anna; Gani, Érico A.; Khudyaev, Sergey; Yue, Chao; Li, Wei; Gouveia, Célia M.; Ciais, Philippe

2018-06-01

While the global carbon budget (GCB) is relatively well constrained over the last decades of the 20th century [1], observations and reconstructions of atmospheric CO2 growth rate present large discrepancies during the earlier periods [2]. The large uncertainty in GCB has been attributed to the land biosphere, although it is not clear whether the gaps between observations and reconstructions are mainly because land-surface models (LSMs) underestimate inter-annual to decadal variability in natural ecosystems, or due to inaccuracies in land-use change reconstructions. As Eurasia encompasses about 15% of the terrestrial surface, 20% of the global soil organic carbon pool and constitutes a large CO2 sink, we evaluate the potential contribution of natural and human-driven processes to induce large anomalies in the biospheric CO2 fluxes in the early 20th century. We use an LSM specifically developed for high-latitudes, that correctly simulates Eurasian C-stocks and fluxes from observational records [3], in order to evaluate the sensitivity of the Eurasian sink to the strong high-latitude warming occurring between 1930 and 1950. We show that the LSM with improved high-latitude phenology, hydrology and soil processes, contrary to the group of LSMs in [2], is able to represent enhanced vegetation growth linked to boreal spring warming, consistent with tree-ring time-series [4]. By compiling a dataset of annual agricultural area in the Former Soviet Union that better reflects changes in cropland area linked with socio-economic fluctuations during the early 20th century, we show that land-abadonment during periods of crisis and war may result in reduced CO2 emissions from land-use change (44%–78% lower) detectable at decadal time-scales. Our study points to key processes that may need to be improved in LSMs and LUC datasets in order to better represent decadal variability in the land CO2 sink, and to better constrain the GCB during the pre-observational record.

Moon-based Earth Observation for Large Scale Geoscience Phenomena

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Huadong; Liu, Guang; Ding, Yixing

2016-07-01

The capability of Earth observation for large-global-scale natural phenomena needs to be improved and new observing platform are expected. We have studied the concept of Moon as an Earth observation in these years. Comparing with manmade satellite platform, Moon-based Earth observation can obtain multi-spherical, full-band, active and passive information,which is of following advantages: large observation range, variable view angle, long-term continuous observation, extra-long life cycle, with the characteristics of longevity ,consistency, integrity, stability and uniqueness. Moon-based Earth observation is suitable for monitoring the large scale geoscience phenomena including large scale atmosphere change, large scale ocean change,large scale land surface dynamic change,solid earth dynamic change,etc. For the purpose of establishing a Moon-based Earth observation platform, we already have a plan to study the five aspects as follows: mechanism and models of moon-based observing earth sciences macroscopic phenomena; sensors' parameters optimization and methods of moon-based Earth observation; site selection and environment of moon-based Earth observation; Moon-based Earth observation platform; and Moon-based Earth observation fundamental scientific framework.

Accuracy of planar reaching movements. I. Independence of direction and extent variability.

PubMed

Gordon, J; Ghilardi, M F; Ghez, C

1994-01-01

This study examined the variability in movement end points in a task in which human subjects reached to targets in different locations on a horizontal surface. The primary purpose was to determine whether patterns in the variable errors would reveal the nature and origin of the coordinate system in which the movements were planned. Six subjects moved a hand-held cursor on a digitizing tablet. Target and cursor positions were displayed on a computer screen, and vision of the hand and arm was blocked. The screen cursor was blanked during movement to prevent visual corrections. The paths of the movements were straight and thus directions were largely specified at the onset of movement. The velocity profiles were bell-shaped, and peak velocities and accelerations were scaled to target distance, implying that movement extent was also programmed in advance of the movement. The spatial distributions of movement end points were elliptical in shape. The major axes of these ellipses were systematically oriented in the direction of hand movement with respect to its initial position. This was true for both fast and slow movements, as well as for pointing movements involving rotations of the wrist joint. Using principal components analysis to compute the axes of these ellipses, we found that the eccentricity of the elliptical dispersions was uniformly greater for small than for large movements: variability along the axis of movement, representing extent variability, increased markedly but nonlinearly with distance. Variability perpendicular to the direction of movement, which results from directional errors, was generally smaller than extent variability, but it increased in proportion to the extent of the movement. Therefore, directional variability, in angular terms, was constant and independent of distance. Because the patterns of variability were similar for both slow and fast movements, as well as for movements involving different joints, we conclude that they result largely from errors in the planning process. We also argue that they cannot be simply explained as consequences of the inertial properties of the limb. Rather they provide evidence for an organizing mechanism that moves the limb along a straight path. We further conclude that reaching movements are planned in a hand-centered coordinate system, with direction and extent of hand movement as the planned parameters. Since the factors which influence directional variability are independent of those that influence extent errors, we propose that these two variables can be separately specified by the brain.

Ultrastructure of Dendritic Spines: Correlation Between Synaptic and Spine Morphologies

PubMed Central

Arellano, Jon I.; Benavides-Piccione, Ruth; DeFelipe, Javier; Yuste, Rafael

2007-01-01

Dendritic spines are critical elements of cortical circuits, since they establish most excitatory synapses. Recent studies have reported correlations between morphological and functional parameters of spines. Specifically, the spine head volume is correlated with the area of the postsynaptic density (PSD), the number of postsynaptic receptors and the ready-releasable pool of transmitter, whereas the length of the spine neck is proportional to the degree of biochemical and electrical isolation of the spine from its parent dendrite. Therefore, the morphology of a spine could determine its synaptic strength and learning rules. To better understand the natural variability of neocortical spine morphologies, we used a combination of gold-toned Golgi impregnations and serial thin-section electron microscopy and performed three-dimensional reconstructions of spines from layer 2/3 pyramidal cells from mouse visual cortex. We characterized the structure and synaptic features of 144 completed reconstructed spines, and analyzed their morphologies according to their positions. For all morphological parameters analyzed, spines exhibited a continuum of variability, without clearly distinguishable subtypes of spines or clear dependence of their morphologies on their distance to the soma. On average, the spine head volume was correlated strongly with PSD area and weakly with neck diameter, but not with neck length. The large morphological diversity suggests an equally large variability of synaptic strength and learning rules. PMID:18982124

Trend assessment: applications for hydrology and climate research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kallache, M.; Rust, H. W.; Kropp, J.

2005-02-01

The assessment of trends in climatology and hydrology still is a matter of debate. Capturing typical properties of time series, like trends, is highly relevant for the discussion of potential impacts of global warming or flood occurrences. It provides indicators for the separation of anthropogenic signals and natural forcing factors by distinguishing between deterministic trends and stochastic variability. In this contribution river run-off data from gauges in Southern Germany are analysed regarding their trend behaviour by combining a deterministic trend component and a stochastic model part in a semi-parametric approach. In this way the trade-off between trend and autocorrelation structure can be considered explicitly. A test for a significant trend is introduced via three steps: First, a stochastic fractional ARIMA model, which is able to reproduce short-term as well as long-term correlations, is fitted to the empirical data. In a second step, wavelet analysis is used to separate the variability of small and large time-scales assuming that the trend component is part of the latter. Finally, a comparison of the overall variability to that restricted to small scales results in a test for a trend. The extraction of the large-scale behaviour by wavelet analysis provides a clue concerning the shape of the trend.

Identifying meaningful trends in Atlantic water temperature from sparse in situ hydrographic observations from the periphery of the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fenty, I. G.; Willis, J. K.; Rignot, E. J.

2016-12-01

Motivated by the need to understand the connection between the warming North Atlantic Ocean and increasing ice mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet, in 2015 we initiated "Oceans Melting Greenland" (OMG), a 5-year NASA sub-orbital mission. One component of OMG is a once-yearly sampling of full-depth vertical profiles of ocean temperature and salinity around Greenland's continental shelf at 250 locations. These measurements have the potential to provide an unprecedented view of ocean properties around Greenland, especially the warm, salty subsurface Atlantic Waters that have been implicated in tidewater glacier retreat, acceleration, and thinning. However, OMG'S ocean measurements are essentially large-scale synoptic snapshots of an ocean state whose characteristic scales of temporal and spatial variability around Greenland are largely unknown. In this talk we discuss how high-resolution numerical ocean modelling is being employed to quantitatively estimate the region's natural hydrographic variability for the dual purposes of (1) informing our pan-Greenland ocean sampling strategy and (2) informing our interpretation of temperature trends in the data. OMG hydrographic shelf data collected in ship-based CTDs (2015, 2016) and Airborne eXpendable CTDs (2016) will be examined in the context of this estimated ocean variability.

Trends and natural variability of North American spring onset as evaluated by a new gridded dataset of spring indices

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ault, Toby R.; Schwartz, Mark D.; Zurita-Milla, Raul; Weltzin, Jake F.; Betancourt, Julio L.

2015-01-01

Climate change is expected to modify the timing of seasonal transitions this century, impacting wildlife migrations, ecosystem function, and agricultural activity. Tracking seasonal transitions in a consistent manner across space and through time requires indices that can be used for monitoring and managing biophysical and ecological systems during the coming decades. Here a new gridded dataset of spring indices is described and used to understand interannual, decadal, and secular trends across the coterminous United States. This dataset is derived from daily interpolated meteorological data, and the results are compared with historical station data to ensure the trends and variations are robust. Regional trends in the first leaf index range from 20.8 to 21.6 days decade21, while first bloom index trends are between20.4 and 21.2 for most regions. However, these trends are modulated by interannual to multidecadal variations, which are substantial throughout the regions considered here. These findings emphasize the important role large-scale climate modes of variability play in modulating spring onset on interannual to multidecadal time scales. Finally, there is some potential for successful subseasonal forecasts of spring onset, as indices from most regions are significantly correlated with antecedent large-scale modes of variability.

Trends and Natural Variability of Spring Onset in the Coterminous United States as Evaluated by a New Gridded Dataset of Spring Indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ault, T.; Schwartz, M. D.; Zurita-Milla, R.; Weltzin, J. F.; Betancourt, J. L.

2015-12-01

Climate change is expected to modify the timing of seasonal transitions this century, impacting wildlife migrations, ecosystem function, and agricultural activity. Tracking seasonal transitions in a consistent manner across space and through time requires indices that can be used for monitoring and managing biophysical and ecological systems during the coming decades. Here a new gridded dataset of spring indices is described and used to understand interannual, decadal, and secular trends across the coterminous US. This dataset is derived from daily interpolated meteorological data, and results are compared with historical station data to ensure the trends and variations are robust. Regional trends in the first leaf index range from -0.8 to -1.6 days per decade, while first bloom index trends are between -0.4 and -1.2 for most regions. However, these trends are modulated by interannual to multidecadal variations, which are substantial throughout the regions considered here. These findings emphasize the important role large-scale climate modes of variability play in modulating spring onset on interannual to multidecadal timescales. Finally, there is some potential for successful sub-seasonal forecasts of spring onset, as indices from most regions are significantly correlated with antecedent large-scale modes of variability.

Seasonal-to-Interannual Variability and Land Surface Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, Randal

2004-01-01

Atmospheric chaos severely limits the predictability of precipitation on subseasonal to interannual timescales. Hope for accurate long-term precipitation forecasts lies with simulating atmospheric response to components of the Earth system, such as the ocean, that can be predicted beyond a couple of weeks. Indeed, seasonal forecasts centers now rely heavily on forecasts of ocean circulation. Soil moisture, another slow component of the Earth system, is relatively ignored by the operational seasonal forecasting community. It is starting, however, to garner more attention. Soil moisture anomalies can persist for months. Because these anomalies can have a strong impact on evaporation and other surface energy fluxes, and because the atmosphere may respond consistently to anomalies in the surface fluxes, an accurate soil moisture initialization in a forecast system has the potential to provide additional forecast skill. This potential has motivated a number of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) studies of soil moisture and its contribution to variability in the climate system. Some of these studies even suggest that in continental midlatitudes during summer, oceanic impacts on precipitation are quite small relative to soil moisture impacts. The model results, though, are strongly model-dependent, with some models showing large impacts and others showing almost none at all. A validation of the model results with observations thus naturally suggests itself, but this is exceedingly difficult. The necessary contemporaneous soil moisture, evaporation, and precipitation measurements at the large scale are virtually non-existent, and even if they did exist, showing statistically that soil moisture affects rainfall would be difficult because the other direction of causality - wherein rainfall affects soil moisture - is unquestionably active and is almost certainly dominant. Nevertheless, joint analyses of observations and AGCM results do reveal some suggestions of land-atmosphere feedback in the observational record, suggestions that soil moisture can affect precipitation over seasonal timescales and across certain large continental areas. The strength of this observed feedback in nature is not large but is still significant enough to be potentially useful, e.g., for forecasts. This talk will address all of these issues. It will begin with a brief overview of land surface modeling in atmospheric models but will then focus on recent research - using both observations and models - into the impact of land surface processes on variability in the climate system.

Freshwater ecosystems and resilience of Pacific salmon: Habitat Management based on natural variability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bisson, P.A.; Dunham, J.B.; Reeves, G.H.

2009-01-01

In spite of numerous habitat restoration programs in fresh waters with an aggregate annual funding of millions of dollars, many populations of Pacific salmon remain significantly imperiled. Habitat restoration strategies that address limited environmental attributes and partial salmon life-history requirements or approaches that attempt to force aquatic habitat to conform to idealized but ecologically unsustainable conditions may partly explain this lack of response. Natural watershed processes generate highly variable environmental conditions and population responses, i.e., multiple life histories, that are often not considered in restoration. Examples from several locations underscore the importance of natural variability to the resilience of Pacific salmon. The implication is that habitat restoration efforts will be more likely to foster salmon resilience if they consider processes that generate and maintain natural variability in fresh water. We identify three specific criteria for management based on natural variability: the capacity of aquatic habitat to recover from disturbance, a range of habitats distributed across stream networks through time sufficient to fulfill the requirements of diverse salmon life histories, and ecological connectivity. In light of these considerations, we discuss current threats to habitat resilience and describe how regulatory and restoration approaches can be modified to better incorporate natural variability. ?? 2009 by the author(s).

Using structural equation modeling to investigate relationships among ecological variables

USGS Publications Warehouse

Malaeb, Z.A.; Kevin, Summers J.; Pugesek, B.H.

2000-01-01

Structural equation modeling is an advanced multivariate statistical process with which a researcher can construct theoretical concepts, test their measurement reliability, hypothesize and test a theory about their relationships, take into account measurement errors, and consider both direct and indirect effects of variables on one another. Latent variables are theoretical concepts that unite phenomena under a single term, e.g., ecosystem health, environmental condition, and pollution (Bollen, 1989). Latent variables are not measured directly but can be expressed in terms of one or more directly measurable variables called indicators. For some researchers, defining, constructing, and examining the validity of latent variables may be the end task of itself. For others, testing hypothesized relationships of latent variables may be of interest. We analyzed the correlation matrix of eleven environmental variables from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (USEPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program for Estuaries (EMAP-E) using methods of structural equation modeling. We hypothesized and tested a conceptual model to characterize the interdependencies between four latent variables-sediment contamination, natural variability, biodiversity, and growth potential. In particular, we were interested in measuring the direct, indirect, and total effects of sediment contamination and natural variability on biodiversity and growth potential. The model fit the data well and accounted for 81% of the variability in biodiversity and 69% of the variability in growth potential. It revealed a positive total effect of natural variability on growth potential that otherwise would have been judged negative had we not considered indirect effects. That is, natural variability had a negative direct effect on growth potential of magnitude -0.3251 and a positive indirect effect mediated through biodiversity of magnitude 0.4509, yielding a net positive total effect of 0.1258. Natural variability had a positive direct effect on biodiversity of magnitude 0.5347 and a negative indirect effect mediated through growth potential of magnitude -0.1105 yielding a positive total effects of magnitude 0.4242. Sediment contamination had a negative direct effect on biodiversity of magnitude -0.1956 and a negative indirect effect on growth potential via biodiversity of magnitude -0.067. Biodiversity had a positive effect on growth potential of magnitude 0.8432, and growth potential had a positive effect on biodiversity of magnitude 0.3398. The correlation between biodiversity and growth potential was estimated at 0.7658 and that between sediment contamination and natural variability at -0.3769.

Recent Variability Observations of Solar System Giant Planets: Fresh Context for Understanding Exoplanet and Brown Dwarf Weather

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marley, Mark Scott

2016-01-01

Over the past several years a number of high cadence photometric observations of solar system giant planets have been acquired by various platforms. Such observations are of interest as they provide points of comparison to the already expansive set of brown dwarf variability observations and the small, but growing, set of exoplanet variability observations. By measuring how rapidly the integrated light from solar system giant planets can evolve, variability observations of substellar objects that are unlikely to ever be resolved can be placed in a fuller context. Examples of brown dwarf variability observations include extensive work from the ground (e.g., Radigen et al. 2014), Spitzer (e.g., Metchev et al. 2015), Kepler (Gizis et al. 2015), and HST (Yang et al. 2015).Variability has been measured on the planetary mass companion to the brown dwarf 2MASS 1207b (Zhou et al. 2016) and further searches are planned in thermal emission for the known directly imaged planets with ground based telescopes (Apai et al. 2016) and in reflected light with future space based telescopes. Recent solar system variability observations include Kepler monitoring of Neptune (Simon et al. 2016) and Uranus, Spitzer observations of Neptune (Stauffer et al. 2016), and Cassini observations of Jupiter (West et al. in prep). The Cassini observations are of particular interest as they measured the variability of Jupiter at a phase angle of approximately 60 deg, comparable to the viewing geometry expected for space based direct imaging of cool extrasolar Jupiters in reflected light. These solar system analog observations capture many of the characteristics seen in brown dwarf variability, including large amplitudes and rapid light curve evolution on timescales as short as a few rotation periods. Simon et al. (2016) attribute such variations at Neptune to a combination of large scale, stable cloud structures along with smaller, more rapidly varying, cloud patches. The observed brown dwarf and exoplanet variability may well arise from comparable cloud structures. In my presentation I will compare and contrast the nature of the variability observed for the various solar system and other substelar objects and present a wish list for future observations.

Recent Variability Observations of Solar System Giant Planets: Fresh Context for Understanding Exoplanet and Brown Dwarf Weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marley, Mark S.; Kepler Giant Planet Variability Team, Spitzer Ice Giant Variability Team

2016-10-01

Over the past several years a number of of high cadence photometric observations of solar system giant planets have been acquired by various platforms. Such observations are of interest as they provide points of comparison to the already expansive set of brown dwarf variability observations and the small, but growing, set of exoplanet variability observations. By measuring how rapidly the integrated light from solar system giant planets can evolve, variability observations of substellar objects that are unlikely to ever be resolved can be placed in a fuller context. Examples of brown dwarf variability observations include extensive work from the ground (e.g., Radigan et al. 2014), Spitzer (e.g., Metchev et al. 2015), Kepler (Gizis et al. 2015), and HST (Yang et al. 2015). Variability has been measured on the planetary mass companion to the brown dwarf 2MASS 1207b (Zhou et al. 2016) and further searches are planned in thermal emission for the known directly imaged planets with ground based telescopes (Apai et al. 2016) and in reflected light with future space based telescopes. Recent solar system variability observations include Kepler monitoring of Neptune (Simon et al. 2016) and Uranus, Spitzer observations of Neptune (Stauffer et al. 2016), and Cassini observations of Jupiter (West et al. in prep). The Cassini observations are of particular interest as they measured the variability of Jupiter at a phase angle of ˜60○, comparable to the viewing geometry expected for space based direct imaging of cool extrasolar Jupiters in reflected light. These solar system analog observations capture many of the characteristics seen in brown dwarf variability, including large amplitudes and rapid light curve evolution on timescales as short as a few rotation periods. Simon et al. (2016) attribute such variations at Neptune to a combination of large scale, stable cloud structures along with smaller, more rapidly varying, cloud patches. The observed brown dwarf and exoplanet variability may well arise from comparable cloud structures. In my presentation I will compare and contrast the nature of the variability observed for the various solar system and other substellar objects and present a wish list for future observations.

The influence of natural and anthropic environmental variables on the structure and spatial distribution along longitudinal gradient of macroinvertebrate communities in southern Brazilian streams

PubMed Central

Batalla Salvarrey, Andrea Vanessa; Kotzian, Carla Bender; Spies, Márcia Regina; Braun, Bruna

2014-01-01

Abstract Southern Brazilian rivers and streams have been intensively affected by human activities, especially agriculture and the release of untreated domestic sewage. However, data about the aquatic macroinvertebrates in these streams are scarce and limited to only certain groups. In addition, studies focusing on the structure and spatial distribution of these communities are lacking. This study analyzed the effects of natural and anthropic variables on the community structure of macroinvertebrates along a longitudinal gradient in three microbasins located in a region of landscape transition in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. Sampling was conducted in the Vacacaí-Mirim River (August 2008) and in the Ibicuí-Mirim and Tororaipí rivers (August 2009) following an environmental gradient including 1 st , 2 nd , 3 rd , and 4 th order segments. Local natural factors that were analyzed include water temperature, pH, electrical conductivity, dissolved oxygen, substrate granulometry, and the presence of aquatic vegetation. Anthropic variables that were analyzed include including bank erosion, land use, urbanization, riparian deforestation, and fine sediments input. A total of 42 families and 129 taxa were found, with predominance of environmentally tolerant taxa. Geological context (landscape transition and large hydrographic basins) tended to influence natural environmental factors along the rivers’ longitudinal gradients. However, changes in anthropic variables were not affected by these geological differences and therefore did not correlate with patterns of spatial distribution in macroinvertebrate communities. Only 1 st order stream segments showed a community composition with high richness of taxa intolerant to anthropic disturbance. Richness as a whole tended to be higher in 3 rd to 4 th order set of segments, but this trend was a result of local anthropic environmental disturbances. Future inventories conducted in similar landscape transition regions of Brazil, for conservation purposes, must consider stream segments of different orders, microbasins, and major basins in order to obtain data that faithfully reflect the regional diversity. Additionally, it is necessary to consider environmental gradients of land use and anthropic impacts in order to suggest appropriate strategies for conserving the environmental integrity of streams. PMID:25373160

Subsidence driving forces in large Delta Plain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grall, C.; Steckler, M. S.

2017-12-01

Recent studies show large variability in subsidence rates among large delta plains that directly impact coastal management of these highly vulnerable environments. Observations show both significant spatial variation in subsidence across each delta, as well as large differences in magnitude between different deltas. This variability raises the question of what are the driving forces that control subsidence in large delta plains that this study aims to address. Subsidence and sediment compaction is studied in 4 end-member large Delta Plains: the Ganges-Brahmaputra, the Mekong, the Mississippi and the Nile. Those large delta plains drastically contrast in subsidence rates (from values to several mm/yr to several cm/yr), in the nature of the sediment (notably in clay and organic matter content), and in the volume of sediment supplied by the large rivers that feed those coastal environments. The volume of sediment deposited in each delta plain during the Holocene is estimated and the compaction of the underlying sedimentary column is computed by using a backstripping approach. Sediment compaction behaviors are defined accordingly to the observed clay, silt and organic contents, and the rate of subsidence associated with compaction is determined. Results suggest that about 2/3 of observed Holocene subsidence may be associated with the mechanical and chemical compaction of the underlying sedimentary column due to the load of sediment deposited. The compaction appears to be significantly higher in delta plains characterized by a high sediment input and a high organic matter and clay content. Thus, the observed subsidence rates in the (muddy) Mekong delta appear to be one order of magnitude higher than other delta plains. In contrast, subsidence rates are modest in the Ganges-Brahmaputra, the Mississippi and the Nile delta plains, except away from the major rivers where deposits are muddier.

The Potential Wind Power Resource in Australia: A New Perspective

PubMed Central

Hallgren, Willow; Gunturu, Udaya Bhaskar; Schlosser, Adam

2014-01-01

Australia’s wind resource is considered to be very good, and the utilization of this renewable energy resource is increasing rapidly: wind power installed capacity increased by 35% from 2006 to 2011 and is predicted to account for over 12% of Australia’s electricity generation in 2030. Due to this growth in the utilization of the wind resource and the increasing importance of wind power in Australia’s energy mix, this study sets out to analyze and interpret the nature of Australia’s wind resources using robust metrics of the abundance, variability and intermittency of wind power density, and analyzes the variation of these characteristics with current and potential wind turbine hub heights. We also assess the extent to which wind intermittency, on hourly or greater timescales, can potentially be mitigated by the aggregation of geographically dispersed wind farms, and in so doing, lessen the severe impact on wind power economic viability of long lulls in wind and power generated. Our results suggest that over much of Australia, areas that have high wind intermittency coincide with large expanses in which the aggregation of turbine output does not mitigate variability. These areas are also geographically remote, some are disconnected from the east coast’s electricity grid and large population centers, which are factors that could decrease the potential economic viability of wind farms in these locations. However, on the eastern seaboard, even though the wind resource is weaker, it is less variable, much closer to large population centers, and there exists more potential to mitigate it’s intermittency through aggregation. This study forms a necessary precursor to the analysis of the impact of large-scale circulations and oscillations on the wind resource at the mesoscale. PMID:24988222

The potential wind power resource in Australia: a new perspective.

PubMed

Hallgren, Willow; Gunturu, Udaya Bhaskar; Schlosser, Adam

2014-01-01

Australia's wind resource is considered to be very good, and the utilization of this renewable energy resource is increasing rapidly: wind power installed capacity increased by 35% from 2006 to 2011 and is predicted to account for over 12% of Australia's electricity generation in 2030. Due to this growth in the utilization of the wind resource and the increasing importance of wind power in Australia's energy mix, this study sets out to analyze and interpret the nature of Australia's wind resources using robust metrics of the abundance, variability and intermittency of wind power density, and analyzes the variation of these characteristics with current and potential wind turbine hub heights. We also assess the extent to which wind intermittency, on hourly or greater timescales, can potentially be mitigated by the aggregation of geographically dispersed wind farms, and in so doing, lessen the severe impact on wind power economic viability of long lulls in wind and power generated. Our results suggest that over much of Australia, areas that have high wind intermittency coincide with large expanses in which the aggregation of turbine output does not mitigate variability. These areas are also geographically remote, some are disconnected from the east coast's electricity grid and large population centers, which are factors that could decrease the potential economic viability of wind farms in these locations. However, on the eastern seaboard, even though the wind resource is weaker, it is less variable, much closer to large population centers, and there exists more potential to mitigate it's intermittency through aggregation. This study forms a necessary precursor to the analysis of the impact of large-scale circulations and oscillations on the wind resource at the mesoscale.

A large kindred with X-linked neutropenia with an I294T mutation of the Wiskott-Aldrich syndrome gene.

PubMed

Beel, Karolien; Cotter, Melanie M; Blatny, Jan; Bond, Jonathan; Lucas, Geoff; Green, Frances; Vanduppen, Vik; Leung, Daisy W; Rooney, Sean; Smith, Owen P; Rosen, Michael K; Vandenberghe, Peter

2009-01-01

X-linked neutropenia (XLN, OMIM #300299) is a rare form of severe congenital neutropenia. It was originally described in a three-generation family with five affected members that had an L270P mutation in the GTP-ase binding domain (GBD) of the Wiskott-Aldrich syndrome protein (WASP) [Devriendt et al (2001) Nature Genetics, Vol. 27, 313-317]. Here, we report and describe a large three-generation family with XLN, with 10 affected males and eight female carriers. A c.882T>C mutation was identified in the WAS gene, resulting in an I294T mutation. The infectious course is variable and mild in view of the profound neutropenia. In addition to the original description, low-normal IgA levels, low to low-normal platelet counts and reduced natural killer (NK)-cell counts also appear as consistent XLN features. However, inverted CD4/CD8 ratios were not found in this family, nor were cases identified with myelodysplastic syndrome or acute myeloid leukaemia. Female carriers exhibited a variable attenuated phenotype. Like L270P WASP, I294T WASP is constitutively active towards actin polymerization. In conclusion, this largest XLN kindred identified to date provides new independent genetic evidence that mutations disrupting the auto-inhibitory GBD of WASP are the cause of XLN. Reduced NK cells, low to low normal platelet counts and low to low-normal IgA levels are also features of XLN.

Climate, Water, and Human Health: Large Scale Hydroclimatic Controls in Forecasting Cholera Epidemics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akanda, A. S.; Jutla, A. S.; Islam, S.

2009-12-01

Despite ravaging the continents through seven global pandemics in past centuries, the seasonal and interannual variability of cholera outbreaks remain a mystery. Previous studies have focused on the role of various environmental and climatic factors, but provided little or no predictive capability. Recent findings suggest a more prominent role of large scale hydroclimatic extremes - droughts and floods - and attempt to explain the seasonality and the unique dual cholera peaks in the Bengal Delta region of South Asia. We investigate the seasonal and interannual nature of cholera epidemiology in three geographically distinct locations within the region to identify the larger scale hydroclimatic controls that can set the ecological and environmental ‘stage’ for outbreaks and have significant memory on a seasonal scale. Here we show that two distinctly different, pre and post monsoon, cholera transmission mechanisms related to large scale climatic controls prevail in the region. An implication of our findings is that extreme climatic events such as prolonged droughts, record floods, and major cyclones may cause major disruption in the ecosystem and trigger large epidemics. We postulate that a quantitative understanding of the large-scale hydroclimatic controls and dominant processes with significant system memory will form the basis for forecasting such epidemic outbreaks. A multivariate regression method using these predictor variables to develop probabilistic forecasts of cholera outbreaks will be explored. Forecasts from such a system with a seasonal lead-time are likely to have measurable impact on early cholera detection and prevention efforts in endemic regions.

Understanding Atmospheric Anomalies Associated With Seasonal Pluvial-Drought Processes Using Southwest China as an Example

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zhenchen; Lu, Guihua; He, Hai; Wu, Zhiyong; He, Jian

2017-11-01

Seasonal pluvial-drought transition processes are unique natural phenomena. To explore possible mechanisms, we considered Southwest China (SWC) as the study region and comprehensively investigated the temporal evolution or spatial patterns of large-scale and regional atmospheric variables with the simple method of Standardized Anomalies (SA). Some key procedures and results include the following: (1) Because regional atmospheric variables are more directly responsible for the transition processes, we investigate it in detail. The temporal evolution of net vertical integral water vapor flux (net VIWVF) across SWC, together with vertical SA-based patterns of regional horizontal divergence (D) and vertical motion (ω), coincides well with pluvial-drought transition processes. (2) With respect to large-scale circulation patterns, a well-organized Eurasian (EU) Pattern is one important feature during the pluvial-drought transitions over SWC. (3) Based on these large-scale and regional atmospheric anomalous features, relevant SA-based indices were built, to explore the possibility of simulating drought development using previous pluvial anomalies. As a whole, simulated drought development only with SA-based indices of large-scale circulation patterns does not perform well. Further, it can be improved a lot when SA-based indices of regional D and net VIWVF are introduced. (4) In addition, the potential drought prediction using pluvial anomalies, together with the deep understanding of physical mechanisms responsible for pluvial-drought transitions, need to be further explored.

Remote sensing estimation of the total phosphorus concentration in a large lake using band combinations and regional multivariate statistical modeling techniques.

PubMed

Gao, Yongnian; Gao, Junfeng; Yin, Hongbin; Liu, Chuansheng; Xia, Ting; Wang, Jing; Huang, Qi

2015-03-15

Remote sensing has been widely used for ater quality monitoring, but most of these monitoring studies have only focused on a few water quality variables, such as chlorophyll-a, turbidity, and total suspended solids, which have typically been considered optically active variables. Remote sensing presents a challenge in estimating the phosphorus concentration in water. The total phosphorus (TP) in lakes has been estimated from remotely sensed observations, primarily using the simple individual band ratio or their natural logarithm and the statistical regression method based on the field TP data and the spectral reflectance. In this study, we investigated the possibility of establishing a spatial modeling scheme to estimate the TP concentration of a large lake from multi-spectral satellite imagery using band combinations and regional multivariate statistical modeling techniques, and we tested the applicability of the spatial modeling scheme. The results showed that HJ-1A CCD multi-spectral satellite imagery can be used to estimate the TP concentration in a lake. The correlation and regression analysis showed a highly significant positive relationship between the TP concentration and certain remotely sensed combination variables. The proposed modeling scheme had a higher accuracy for the TP concentration estimation in the large lake compared with the traditional individual band ratio method and the whole-lake scale regression-modeling scheme. The TP concentration values showed a clear spatial variability and were high in western Lake Chaohu and relatively low in eastern Lake Chaohu. The northernmost portion, the northeastern coastal zone and the southeastern portion of western Lake Chaohu had the highest TP concentrations, and the other regions had the lowest TP concentration values, except for the coastal zone of eastern Lake Chaohu. These results strongly suggested that the proposed modeling scheme, i.e., the band combinations and the regional multivariate statistical modeling techniques, demonstrated advantages for estimating the TP concentration in a large lake and had a strong potential for universal application for the TP concentration estimation in large lake waters worldwide. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatial arrangement overrules environmental factors to structure native and non-native assemblages of synanthropic harvestmen.

PubMed

Muster, Christoph; Meyer, Marc; Sattler, Thomas

2014-01-01

Understanding how space affects the occurrence of native and non-native species is essential for inferring processes that shape communities. However, studies considering spatial and environmental variables for the entire community - as well as for the native and non-native assemblages in a single study - are scarce for animals. Harvestmen communities in central Europe have undergone drastic turnovers during the past decades, with several newly immigrated species, and thus provide a unique system to study such questions. We studied the wall-dwelling harvestmen communities from 52 human settlements in Luxembourg and found the assemblages to be largely dominated by non-native species (64% of specimens). Community structure was analysed using Moran's eigenvector maps as spatial variables, and landcover variables at different radii (500 m, 1000 m, 2000 m) in combination with climatic parameters as environmental variables. A surprisingly high portion of pure spatial variation (15.7% of total variance) exceeded the environmental (10.6%) and shared (4%) components of variation, but we found only minor differences between native and non-native assemblages. This could result from the ecological flexibility of both, native and non-native harvestmen that are not restricted to urban habitats but also inhabit surrounding semi-natural landscapes. Nevertheless, urban landcover variables explained more variation in the non-native community, whereas coverage of semi-natural habitats (forests, rivers) at broader radii better explained the native assemblage. This indicates that some urban characteristics apparently facilitate the establishment of non-native species. We found no evidence for competitive replacement of native by invasive species, but a community with novel combination of native and non-native species.

Detection and attribution of temperature changes in the mountainous Western United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bonfils, Celine; Santer, B.D.; Pierce, D.W.; Hidalgo, H.G.; Bala, G.; Das, T.; Barnett, T.P.; Cayan, D.R.; Doutriaux, C.; Wood, A.W.; Mirin, A.; Nozawa, T.

2008-01-01

Large changes in the hydrology of the western United States have been observed since the mid-twentieth century. These include a reduction in the amount of precipitation arriving as snow, a decline in snowpack at low and midelevations, and a shift toward earlier arrival of both snowmelt and the centroid (center of mass) of streamflows. To project future water supply reliability, it is crucial to obtain a better understanding of the underlying cause or causes for these changes. A regional warming is often posited as the cause of these changes without formal testing of different competitive explanations for the warming. In this study, a rigorous detection and attribution analysis is performed to determine the causes of the late winter/early spring changes in hydrologically relevant temperature variables over mountain ranges of the western United States. Natural internal climate variability, as estimated from two long control climate model simulations, is insufficient to explain the rapid increase in daily minimum and maximum temperatures, the sharp decline in frost days, and the rise in degree-days above 0??C (a simple proxy for temperature driven snowmelt). These observed changes are also inconsistent with the model-predicted responses to variability in solar irradiance and volcanic activity. The observations are consistent with climite simulations that include the combined effects of anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosols. It is found that, for each temperature variable considered, an anthropogenic signal is identifiable in observational fields. The results are robust to uncertainties in model-estimated fingerprints and natural variability noise, to the choice of statistical down-scaling method, and to various processing options in the detection and attribution method. ?? 2008 American Meteorological Society.

Spatial Arrangement Overrules Environmental Factors to Structure Native and Non-Native Assemblages of Synanthropic Harvestmen

PubMed Central

Muster, Christoph; Meyer, Marc; Sattler, Thomas

2014-01-01

Understanding how space affects the occurrence of native and non-native species is essential for inferring processes that shape communities. However, studies considering spatial and environmental variables for the entire community – as well as for the native and non-native assemblages in a single study – are scarce for animals. Harvestmen communities in central Europe have undergone drastic turnovers during the past decades, with several newly immigrated species, and thus provide a unique system to study such questions. We studied the wall-dwelling harvestmen communities from 52 human settlements in Luxembourg and found the assemblages to be largely dominated by non-native species (64% of specimens). Community structure was analysed using Moran's eigenvector maps as spatial variables, and landcover variables at different radii (500 m, 1000 m, 2000 m) in combination with climatic parameters as environmental variables. A surprisingly high portion of pure spatial variation (15.7% of total variance) exceeded the environmental (10.6%) and shared (4%) components of variation, but we found only minor differences between native and non-native assemblages. This could result from the ecological flexibility of both, native and non-native harvestmen that are not restricted to urban habitats but also inhabit surrounding semi-natural landscapes. Nevertheless, urban landcover variables explained more variation in the non-native community, whereas coverage of semi-natural habitats (forests, rivers) at broader radii better explained the native assemblage. This indicates that some urban characteristics apparently facilitate the establishment of non-native species. We found no evidence for competitive replacement of native by invasive species, but a community with novel combination of native and non-native species. PMID:24595309

ENSO elicits opposing responses of semi-arid vegetation between Hemispheres

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Anzhi; Jia, Gensuo; Epstein, Howard E.; Xia, Jiangjiang

2017-02-01

Semi-arid ecosystems are key contributors to the global carbon cycle and may even dominate the inter-annual variability (IAV) and trends of the land carbon sink, driven largely by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The linkages between dynamics of semi-arid ecosystems and climate at the hemispheric scale however are not well known. Here, we use satellite data and climate observations from 2000 to 2014 to explore the impacts of ENSO on variability of semi-arid ecosystems, using the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition method. We show that the responses of semi-arid vegetation to ENSO occur in opposite directions, resulting from opposing controls of ENSO on precipitation between the Northern Hemisphere (positively correlated to ENSO) and the Southern Hemisphere (negatively correlated to ENSO). Also, the Southern Hemisphere, with a robust negative coupling of temperature and precipitation anomalies, exhibits stronger and faster responses of semi-arid ecosystems to ENSO than the Northern Hemisphere. Our findings suggest that natural coherent variability in semi-arid ecosystem productivity responded to ENSO in opposite ways between two hemispheres, which may imply potential prediction of global semi-arid ecosystem variability, particularly based on variability in tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures.

Long-term variability of the thunderstorm and hail potential in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohr, Susanna; Kunz, Michael; Speidel, Johannes; Piper, David

2016-04-01

Severe thunderstorms and associated hazardous weather events such as hail frequently cause considerable damage to buildings, crops, and automobiles, resulting in large monetary costs in many parts of Europe and the world. To relate single extreme hail events to the historic context and to estimate their return periods and possible trends related to climate change, long-term statistics of hail events are required. Due to the local-scale nature of hail and a lack of suitable observation systems, however, hailstorms are not captured reliably and comprehensively for a long period of time. In view of this fact, different proxies (indirect climate data) obtained from sounding stations and regional climate models can be used to infer the probability and intensity of thunderstorms or hailstorms. In contrast to direct observational data, such proxies are available homogeneously over a long time period. The aim of the study is to investigate the potential for severe thunderstorms and their changes over past decades. Statistical analyses of sounding data show that the convective potential over the past 20 - 30 years has significantly increased over large parts of Central Europe, making severe thunderstorms more likely. A similar picture results from analyses of weather types that are most likely associated with damaging hailstorms. These weather patterns have increased, even if only slightly but nevertheless statistically significantly, in the time period from 1971 to 2000. To improve the diagnostics of hail events in regional climate models, a logistic hail model has been developed by means of a multivariate analysis method. The model is based on a combination of appropriate hail-relevant meteorological parameters. The output of the model is a new index that estimates the potential of the atmosphere for hailstorm development, referred to as potential hail index (PHI). Applied to a high-resolved reanalysis run for Europe driven by NCEP/NCAR1, long-term changes of the PHI for 60 years (1951-2010) show large annual and multiannual variability. The trends are mostly positive in the western parts and negative to the east. However, due to the large temporal variability, the trends are not significant at most of the grid points. Furthermore, it becomes clear that the environmental conditions that favor the formation of hailstorms prevail in larger areas. This finding suggests that, despite the local-scale nature of convective storms, the ambient conditions favoring these events are mainly controlled by large-scale circulation patterns and mechanisms. This result is important to estimate the convective potential of the atmosphere in case of single events.

Global economic impacts of climate variability and change during the 20th century.

PubMed

Estrada, Francisco; Tol, Richard S J; Botzen, Wouter J W

2017-01-01

Estimates of the global economic impacts of observed climate change during the 20th century obtained by applying five impact functions of different integrated assessment models (IAMs) are separated into their main natural and anthropogenic components. The estimates of the costs that can be attributed to natural variability factors and to the anthropogenic intervention with the climate system in general tend to show that: 1) during the first half of the century, the amplitude of the impacts associated with natural variability is considerably larger than that produced by anthropogenic factors and the effects of natural variability fluctuated between being negative and positive. These non-monotonic impacts are mostly determined by the low-frequency variability and the persistence of the climate system; 2) IAMs do not agree on the sign (nor on the magnitude) of the impacts of anthropogenic forcing but indicate that they steadily grew over the first part of the century, rapidly accelerated since the mid 1970's, and decelerated during the first decade of the 21st century. This deceleration is accentuated by the existence of interaction effects between natural variability and natural and anthropogenic forcing. The economic impacts of anthropogenic forcing range in the tenths of percentage of the world GDP by the end of the 20th century; 3) the impacts of natural forcing are about one order of magnitude lower than those associated with anthropogenic forcing and are dominated by the solar forcing; 4) the interaction effects between natural and anthropogenic factors can importantly modulate how impacts actually occur, at least for moderate increases in external forcing. Human activities became dominant drivers of the estimated economic impacts at the end of the 20th century, producing larger impacts than those of low-frequency natural variability. Some of the uses and limitations of IAMs are discussed.

Global economic impacts of climate variability and change during the 20th century

PubMed Central

Estrada, Francisco; Tol, Richard S. J.; Botzen, Wouter J. W.

2017-01-01

Estimates of the global economic impacts of observed climate change during the 20th century obtained by applying five impact functions of different integrated assessment models (IAMs) are separated into their main natural and anthropogenic components. The estimates of the costs that can be attributed to natural variability factors and to the anthropogenic intervention with the climate system in general tend to show that: 1) during the first half of the century, the amplitude of the impacts associated with natural variability is considerably larger than that produced by anthropogenic factors and the effects of natural variability fluctuated between being negative and positive. These non-monotonic impacts are mostly determined by the low-frequency variability and the persistence of the climate system; 2) IAMs do not agree on the sign (nor on the magnitude) of the impacts of anthropogenic forcing but indicate that they steadily grew over the first part of the century, rapidly accelerated since the mid 1970's, and decelerated during the first decade of the 21st century. This deceleration is accentuated by the existence of interaction effects between natural variability and natural and anthropogenic forcing. The economic impacts of anthropogenic forcing range in the tenths of percentage of the world GDP by the end of the 20th century; 3) the impacts of natural forcing are about one order of magnitude lower than those associated with anthropogenic forcing and are dominated by the solar forcing; 4) the interaction effects between natural and anthropogenic factors can importantly modulate how impacts actually occur, at least for moderate increases in external forcing. Human activities became dominant drivers of the estimated economic impacts at the end of the 20th century, producing larger impacts than those of low-frequency natural variability. Some of the uses and limitations of IAMs are discussed. PMID:28212384

Extreme Variables in Star Forming Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Contreras Peña, Carlos Eduardo

2015-01-01

The notion that low- to intermediate-mass young stellar objects (YSOs) gain mass at a constant rate during the early stages of their evolution appears to be challenged by observations of YSOs suffering sudden increases of the rate at which they gain mass from their circumstellar discs. Also, this idea that stars spend most of their lifetime with a low accretion rate and gain most of their final mass during short-lived episodes of high accretion bursts, helps to solve some long-standing problems in stellar evolution. The original classification of eruptive variables divides them in two separate subclasses known as FU Orionis stars (FUors) and EX Lupi stars (EXors). In this classical view FUors are at an early evolutionary stage and are still gaining mass from their parent envelopes, whilst EXors are thought to be older objects only surrounded by an accretion disc. The problem with this classical view is that it excludes younger protostars which have higher accretion rates but are too deeply embedded in circumstellar matter to be observed at optical wavelengths. Optically invisible protostars have been observed to display large variability in the near-infrared. These and some recent discoveries of new eruptive variables, show characteristics that can be attributed to both of the optically-defined subclasses of eruptive variables. The new objects have been proposed to be part of a new class of eruptive variables. However, a more accepted scenario is that in fact the original classes only represent two extremes of the same phenomena. In this sense eruptive variability could be explained as arising from one physical mechanism, i.e. unsteady accretion, where a variation in the parameters of such mechanism can cause the different characteristics observed in the members of this class. With the aim of studying the incidence of episodic accretion among young stellar objects, and to characterize the nature of these eruptive variables we searched for high amplitude variability in two multi-epoch infrared surveys: the UKIDSS Galactic Plane Survey (GPS) and the Vista Variables in the Via Lactea (VVV). In order to further investigate the nature of the selected variable stars, we use photometric information arising from public surveys at near- to far-infrared wavelengths. In addition we have performed spectroscopic and photometric follow-up for a large subset of the samples arising from GPS and VVV. We analyse the widely separated two-epoch K-band photometry in the 5th, 7th and 8th data releases of the UKIDSS Galactic Plane Survey. We find 71 stars with ΔK > 1 mag, including 2 previously known OH/IR stars and a Nova. Even though the mid-plane is mostly excluded from the dataset, we find the majority (66%) of our sample to be within known star forming regions (SFRs), with two large concentrations in the Serpens OB2 association (11 stars) and the Cygnus-X complex (27 stars). The analysis of the multi-epoch K-band photometry of 2010-2012 data from VVV covering the Galactic disc at |b| < 1° yields 816 high amplitude variables, which include known variables of different classes such as high mass X-ray binaries, Novae and eclipsing binaries among others. Remarkably, 65% of the sample are found concentrated towards areas of star formation, similar to the results from GPS. In both surveys, sources in SFRs show spectral energy distributions (SEDs) that support classification as YSOs. This indicates that YSOs dominate the Galactic population of high amplitude infrared variable stars at low luminosities and therefore likely dominate the total high amplitude population. Spectroscopic follow-up allows us to confirm the pre-main sequence nature of several GPS and VVV Objects. Most objects in both samples show spectroscopic signatures that can be attributed to YSOs undergoing high states of accretion, such as veiling of photospheric features and CO emission, or show FUor-like spectra. We also find a large fraction of objects with 2.12 μm H2 emission that can be explained as arising from shock-excited emission caused by molecular outflows. Whether these molecular outflows are related to outbursts events cannot be confirmed from our data. Adding the GPS and VVV spectroscopic results, we find that between 6 and 14 objects are new additions to the FUor class from their close resemblance to the near-infrared spectra of FUors, and at least 23 more objects are new additions to the eruptive variable class. For most of these we are unable to classify them into any of the original definitions for this variable class. In any case, we are adding up to 37 new stars to the eruptive variable class which would double the current number of known objects. We note that most objects are found to be deeply embedded optically invisible stars, thus increasing the number of objects belonging to this subclass by a much larger factor. In general, objects in our samples which are found to be likely eruptive variable stars show a mixture of characteristics that can be attributed to both of the optically-defined classes. This agrees well with the recent discoveries in the literature. Finally, we are able to derive a first rough estimate on the incidence of episodic accretion among class I YSOs in the star-forming complex G305. We find that ~9% of such objects are in a state of high accretion. This number is in agreement with previous theoretical and observational estimates among class I YSOs.

Seasonal movement and habitat use by sub-adult bull trout in the upper Flathead River system, Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Marotz, Brian

2005-01-01

Despite the importance of large-scale habitat connectivity to the threatened bull trout Salvelinus confluentus, little is known about the life history characteristics and processes influencing natural dispersal of migratory populations. We used radiotelemetry to investigate the seasonal movements and habitat use by subadult bull trout (i.e., fish that emigrated from natal streams to the river system) tracked for varying durations from 1999 to 2002 in the upper Flathead River system in northwestern Montana. Telemetry data revealed migratory (N = 32 fish) and nonmigratory (N = 35 fish) behavior, indicating variable movement patterns in the subadult phase of bull trout life history. Most migrating subadults (84%) made rapid or incremental downriver movements (mean distance, 33 km; range, 6–129 km) to lower portions of the river system and to Flathead Lake during high spring flows and as temperatures declined in the fall and winter. Bull trout subadults used complex daytime habitat throughout the upper river system, including deep runs that contained unembedded boulder and cobble substrates, pools with large woody debris, and deep lake-influenced areas of the lower river system. Our results elucidate the importance of maintaining natural connections and a diversity of complex habitats over a large spatial scale to conserve the full expression of life history traits and processes influencing the natural dispersal of bull trout populations. Managers should seek to restore and enhance critical river corridor habitat and remove migration barriers, where possible, for recovery and management programs.

Human Influence on Tropical Cyclone Intensity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sobel, Adam H.; Camargo, Suzana J.; Hall, Timothy M.; Lee, Chia-Ying; Tippett, Michael K.; Wing, Allison A.

2016-01-01

Recent assessments agree that tropical cyclone intensity should increase as the climate warms. Less agreement exists on the detection of recent historical trends in tropical cyclone intensity.We interpret future and recent historical trends by using the theory of potential intensity, which predicts the maximum intensity achievable by a tropical cyclone in a given local environment. Although greenhouse gas-driven warming increases potential intensity, climate model simulations suggest that aerosol cooling has largely canceled that effect over the historical record. Large natural variability complicates analysis of trends, as do poleward shifts in the latitude of maximum intensity. In the absence of strong reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, future greenhouse gas forcing of potential intensity will increasingly dominate over aerosol forcing, leading to substantially larger increases in tropical cyclone intensities.

Scale-dependent temporal variations in stream water geochemistry.

PubMed

Nagorski, Sonia A; Moore, Iohnnie N; McKinnon, Temple E; Smith, David B

2003-03-01

A year-long study of four western Montana streams (two impacted by mining and two "pristine") evaluated surface water geochemical dynamics on various time scales (monthly, daily, and bi-hourly). Monthly changes were dominated by snowmelt and precipitation dynamics. On the daily scale, post-rain surges in some solute and particulate concentrations were similar to those of early spring runoff flushing characteristics on the monthly scale. On the bi-hourly scale, we observed diel (diurnal-nocturnal) cycling for pH, dissolved oxygen, water temperature, dissolved inorganic carbon, total suspended sediment, and some total recoverable metals at some or all sites. A comparison of the cumulative geochemical variability within each of the temporal groups reveals that for many water quality parameters there were large overlaps of concentration ranges among groups. We found that short-term (daily and bi-hourly) variations of some geochemical parameters covered large proportions of the variations found on a much longer term (monthly) time scale. These results show the importance of nesting short-term studies within long-term geochemical study designs to separate signals of environmental change from natural variability.

Scale-dependent temporal variations in stream water geochemistry

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nagorski, S.A.; Moore, J.N.; McKinnon, Temple E.; Smith, D.B.

2003-01-01

A year-long study of four western Montana streams (two impacted by mining and two "pristine") evaluated surface water geochemical dynamics on various time scales (monthly, daily, and bi-hourly). Monthly changes were dominated by snowmelt and precipitation dynamics. On the daily scale, post-rain surges in some solute and particulate concentrations were similar to those of early spring runoff flushing characteristics on the monthly scale. On the bi-hourly scale, we observed diel (diurnal-nocturnal) cycling for pH, dissolved oxygen, water temperature, dissolved inorganic carbon, total suspended sediment, and some total recoverable metals at some or all sites. A comparison of the cumulative geochemical variability within each of the temporal groups reveals that for many water quality parameters there were large overlaps of concentration ranges among groups. We found that short-term (daily and bi-hourly) variations of some geochemical parameters covered large proportions of the variations found on a much longer term (monthly) time scale. These results show the importance of nesting short-term studies within long-term geochemical study designs to separate signals of environmental change from natural variability.

Diffraction and Dissipation of Atmospheric Waves in the Vicinity of Caustics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Godin, O. A.

2015-12-01

A large and increasing number of ground-based and satellite-borne instruments has been demonstrated to reliably reveal ionospheric manifestations of natural hazards such as large earthquakes, strong tsunamis, and powerful tornadoes. To transition from detection of ionospheric manifestations of natural hazards to characterization of the hazards for the purposes of improving early warning systems and contributing to disaster recovery, it is necessary to relate quantitatively characteristics of the observed ionospheric disturbances and the underlying natural hazard and, in particular, accurately model propagation of atmospheric waves from the ground or ocean surface to the ionosphere. The ray theory has been used extensively to model propagation of atmospheric waves and proved to be very efficient in elucidating the effects of atmospheric variability on ionospheric signatures of natural hazards. However, the ray theory predicts unphysical, divergent values of the wave amplitude and needs to be modified in the vicinity of caustics. This paper presents an asymptotic theory that describes diffraction, focusing and increased dissipation of acoustic-gravity waves in the vicinity of caustics and turning points. Air temperature, viscosity, thermal conductivity, and wind velocity are assumed to vary gradually with height and horizontal coordinates, and slowness of these variations determines the large parameter of the problem. Uniform asymptotics of the wave field are expressed in terms of Airy functions and their derivatives. The geometrical, or Berry, phase, which arises in the consistent WKB approximation for acoustic-gravity waves, plays an important role in the caustic asymptotics. In addition to the wave field in the vicinity of the caustic, these asymptotics describe wave reflection from the caustic and the evanescent wave field beyond the caustic. The evanescent wave field is found to play an important role in ionospheric manifestations of tsunamis.

The Baltic Sea natural long-term variability of salinity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schimanke, Semjon; Markus Meier, H. E.

2015-04-01

The Baltic Sea is one of the largest brackish sea areas of the world. The sensitive state of the Baltic Sea is sustained by a fresh-water surplus by river discharge and precipitation on one hand as well as inflows of highly saline and oxygen-rich water masses from the North Sea on the other. Major inflows which are crucial for the renewal of the deep water occur very intermittent with a mean frequency of approximately one per year. Stagnation periods (periods without major inflows) lead for instance to a reduction of oxygen concentration in the deep Baltic Sea spreading hypoxic conditions. Depending on the amount of salt water inflow and fresh-water supply the deep water salinity of the Baltic Sea varies between 11 to 14 PSU on the decadal scale. The goal of this study is to understand the contribution of different driving factors for the decadal to multi-decadal variability of salinity in the Baltic Sea. Continuous measurement series of salinity exist from the 1950 but are not sufficiently long for the investigation of long-term fluctuations. Therefore, a climate simulation of more than 800 years has been carried out with the Rossby Center Ocean model (RCO). RCO is a biogeochemical regional climate model which covers the entire Baltic Sea. It is driven with atmospheric data dynamical downscaled from a GCM mimicking natural climate variability. The analysis focus on the role of variations in river discharge and precipitation, changes in wind speed and direction, fluctuations in temperature and shifts in large scale pressure patterns (e.g. NAO). Hereby, the length of the simulation will allow to identify mechanisms working on decadal to multi-decadal time scales. Moreover, it will be discussed how likely long stagnation periods are under natural climate variability and if the observed exceptional long stagnation period between 1983-1993 might be related to beginning climate change.

Alexander Polonsky Global warming hiatus, ocean variability and regional climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polonsky, A.

2016-02-01

This presentation generalizes the results concerning ocean variability, large-scale interdecadal ocean-atmosphere interaction in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and their impact on global and regional climate change carried out by the author and his colleagues for about 20 years. It is demonstrated once more that Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO, which was early referred by the author as "interdecadal mode of North Atlantic Oscillation") is the crucial natural interdecadal climatic signal for the Atlantic-European and Mediterranean regions. It is characterized by amplitude which is the same order as human-induced centennial climate change and exceeds trend-like anthropogenic change at the decadal scale. Fast increasing of the global and Northern Hemisphere air temperature in the last 30 yrs of XX century (especially pronounced in the North Atlantic region and surrounded areas) is due to coincidence of human-induced positive trend and transition from the negative to the positive phase of AMO. AMO accounts for about 50% (60%) of the global (Northern Hemisphere) temperature trend in that period. Recent global warming hiatus is mostly the result of switch off the AMO phase. Typical AMO temporal scale is dictated by meridional overturning variability in the Atlantic Ocean and associated magnitude of meridional heat transport. Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is the other natural interdecadal signal which significantly impacts the global and regional climate variability. The rate of the ocean warming for different periods assessed separately for the upper mixed layer and deeper layers using data of oceanic re-analysis since 1959 confirms the principal role of the natural interdecadal oceanic modes (AMO and PDO) in observing climate change. At the same time a lack of deep-ocean long-term observing system restricts the accuracy of assessment of the heat redistribution in the World Ocean. I thanks to Pavel Sukhonos for help in the presentation preparing.

An efficient swarm intelligence approach to feature selection based on invasive weed optimization: Application to multivariate calibration and classification using spectroscopic data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheykhizadeh, Saheleh; Naseri, Abdolhossein

2018-04-01

Variable selection plays a key role in classification and multivariate calibration. Variable selection methods are aimed at choosing a set of variables, from a large pool of available predictors, relevant to the analyte concentrations estimation, or to achieve better classification results. Many variable selection techniques have now been introduced among which, those which are based on the methodologies of swarm intelligence optimization have been more respected during a few last decades since they are mainly inspired by nature. In this work, a simple and new variable selection algorithm is proposed according to the invasive weed optimization (IWO) concept. IWO is considered a bio-inspired metaheuristic mimicking the weeds ecological behavior in colonizing as well as finding an appropriate place for growth and reproduction; it has been shown to be very adaptive and powerful to environmental changes. In this paper, the first application of IWO, as a very simple and powerful method, to variable selection is reported using different experimental datasets including FTIR and NIR data, so as to undertake classification and multivariate calibration tasks. Accordingly, invasive weed optimization - linear discrimination analysis (IWO-LDA) and invasive weed optimization- partial least squares (IWO-PLS) are introduced for multivariate classification and calibration, respectively.

An efficient swarm intelligence approach to feature selection based on invasive weed optimization: Application to multivariate calibration and classification using spectroscopic data.

PubMed

Sheykhizadeh, Saheleh; Naseri, Abdolhossein

2018-04-05

Variable selection plays a key role in classification and multivariate calibration. Variable selection methods are aimed at choosing a set of variables, from a large pool of available predictors, relevant to the analyte concentrations estimation, or to achieve better classification results. Many variable selection techniques have now been introduced among which, those which are based on the methodologies of swarm intelligence optimization have been more respected during a few last decades since they are mainly inspired by nature. In this work, a simple and new variable selection algorithm is proposed according to the invasive weed optimization (IWO) concept. IWO is considered a bio-inspired metaheuristic mimicking the weeds ecological behavior in colonizing as well as finding an appropriate place for growth and reproduction; it has been shown to be very adaptive and powerful to environmental changes. In this paper, the first application of IWO, as a very simple and powerful method, to variable selection is reported using different experimental datasets including FTIR and NIR data, so as to undertake classification and multivariate calibration tasks. Accordingly, invasive weed optimization - linear discrimination analysis (IWO-LDA) and invasive weed optimization- partial least squares (IWO-PLS) are introduced for multivariate classification and calibration, respectively. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Blazar Variability from Turbulence in Jets Launched by Magnetically Arrested Accretion Flows

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Riordan, Michael O’; Pe’er, Asaf; McKinney, Jonathan C., E-mail: michael_oriordan@umail.ucc.ie

2017-07-10

Blazars show variability on timescales ranging from minutes to years, the former being comparable to and in some cases even shorter than the light-crossing time of the central black hole. The observed γ -ray light curves can be described by a power-law power density spectrum (PDS), with a similar index for both BL Lacs and flat-spectrum radio quasars. We show that this variability can be produced by turbulence in relativistic jets launched by magnetically arrested accretion flows (MADs). We perform radiative transport calculations on the turbulent, highly magnetized jet launching region of a MAD with a rapidly rotating supermassive blackmore » hole. The resulting synchrotron and synchrotron self-Compton emission, originating from close to the black hole horizon, is highly variable. This variability is characterized by PDS, which is remarkably similar to the observed power-law spectrum at frequencies less than a few per day. Furthermore, turbulence in the jet launching region naturally produces fluctuations in the plasma on scales much smaller than the horizon radius. We speculate that similar turbulent processes, operating in the jet at large radii (and therefore a high bulk Lorentz factor), are responsible for blazar variability over many decades in frequency, including on minute timescales.« less

Future changes in peak river flows across northern Eurasia as inferred from an ensemble of regional climate projections under the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shkolnik, Igor; Pavlova, Tatiana; Efimov, Sergey; Zhuravlev, Sergey

2018-01-01

Climate change simulation based on 30-member ensemble of Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory RCM (resolution 25 km) for northern Eurasia is used to drive hydrological model CaMa-Flood. Using this modeling framework, we evaluate the uncertainties in the future projection of the peak river discharge and flood hazard by 2050-2059 relative to 1990-1999 under IPCC RCP8.5 scenario. Large ensemble size, along with reasonably high modeling resolution, allows one to efficiently sample natural climate variability and increase our ability to predict future changes in the hydrological extremes. It has been shown that the annual maximum river discharge can almost double by the mid-XXI century in the outlets of major Siberian rivers. In the western regions, there is a weak signal in the river discharge and flood hazard, hardly discernible above climate variability. Annual maximum flood area is projected to increase across Siberia mostly by 2-5% relative to the baseline period. A contribution of natural climate variability at different temporal scales to the uncertainty of ensemble prediction is discussed. The analysis shows that there expected considerable changes in the extreme river discharge probability at locations of the key hydropower facilities. This suggests that the extensive impact studies are required to develop recommendations for maintaining regional energy security.

Kronos Observatory Operations Challenges in a Lean Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koratkar, Anuradha; Peterson, Bradley M.; Polidan, Ronald S.

2003-02-01

Kronos is a multiwavelength observatory designed to map the accretion disks and environments of supermassive black holes in various environments using the natural intrinsic variability of the accretion-driven sources. Kronos is envisaged as a Medium Explorer mission to NASA Office of Space Science under the Structure and Evolution of the Universe theme. We will achieve the Kronos science objectives by developing cost-effective techniques for obtaining and assimilating data from the research spacecraft and its subsequent work on the ground. The science operations assumptions for the mission are: (1 Need for flexible scheduling due to the variable nature of targets, (2) Large data volumes but minimal ground station contact, (3) Very small staff for operations. Our first assumption implies that we will have to consider an effective strategy to dynamically reprioritize the observing schedule to maximize science data acquisition. The flexibility we seek greatly increases the science return of the mission, because variability events can be properly captured. Our second assumption implies that we will have to develop some basic on-board analysis strategies to determine which data get downloaded. The small size of the operations staff implies that we need to "automate" as many routine processes of science operations as possible. In this paper we will discuss the various solutions that we are considering to optimize our operations and maximize science returns on the observatory.

Putting Temperature and Oxygen Thresholds of Marine Animals in Context of Environmental Change: A Regional Perspective for the Scotian Shelf and Gulf of St. Lawrence

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

We conducted a literature review of reported temperature, salinity, pH, depth and oxygen preferences and thresholds of important marine species found in the Gulf of St. Lawrence and Scotian Shelf region. We classified 54 identified fishes and macroinvertebrates as important either because they support a commercial fishery, have threatened or at risk status, or meet one of the following criteria: bycatch, baitfish, invasive, vagrant, important for ecosystem energy transfer, or predators or prey of the above species. The compiled data allow an assessment of species-level impacts including physiological stress and mortality given predictions of future ocean physical and biogeochemical conditions. If an observed, multi-decadal oxygen trend on the central Scotian Shelf continues, a number of species will lose favorable oxygen conditions, experience oxygen-stress, or disappear due to insufficient oxygen in the coming half-century. Projected regional trends and natural variability are both large, and natural variability will act to alternately amplify and dampen anthropogenic changes. When estimates of variability are included with the trend, species encounter unfavourable oxygen conditions decades sooner. Finally, temperature and oxygen thresholds of adult Atlantic wolffish (Anarhichas lupus) and adult Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) are assessed in the context of a potential future scenario derived from high-resolution ocean models for the central Scotian Shelf. PMID:27997536

Putting Temperature and Oxygen Thresholds of Marine Animals in Context of Environmental Change: A Regional Perspective for the Scotian Shelf and Gulf of St. Lawrence.

PubMed

Brennan, Catherine E; Blanchard, Hannah; Fennel, Katja

2016-01-01

We conducted a literature review of reported temperature, salinity, pH, depth and oxygen preferences and thresholds of important marine species found in the Gulf of St. Lawrence and Scotian Shelf region. We classified 54 identified fishes and macroinvertebrates as important either because they support a commercial fishery, have threatened or at risk status, or meet one of the following criteria: bycatch, baitfish, invasive, vagrant, important for ecosystem energy transfer, or predators or prey of the above species. The compiled data allow an assessment of species-level impacts including physiological stress and mortality given predictions of future ocean physical and biogeochemical conditions. If an observed, multi-decadal oxygen trend on the central Scotian Shelf continues, a number of species will lose favorable oxygen conditions, experience oxygen-stress, or disappear due to insufficient oxygen in the coming half-century. Projected regional trends and natural variability are both large, and natural variability will act to alternately amplify and dampen anthropogenic changes. When estimates of variability are included with the trend, species encounter unfavourable oxygen conditions decades sooner. Finally, temperature and oxygen thresholds of adult Atlantic wolffish (Anarhichas lupus) and adult Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) are assessed in the context of a potential future scenario derived from high-resolution ocean models for the central Scotian Shelf.

Metabolic Capacity of Sinorhizobium (Ensifer) meliloti Strains as Determined by Phenotype MicroArray Analysis▿ †

PubMed Central

Biondi, Emanuele G.; Tatti, Enrico; Comparini, Diego; Giuntini, Elisa; Mocali, Stefano; Giovannetti, Luciana; Bazzicalupo, Marco; Mengoni, Alessio; Viti, Carlo

2009-01-01

Sinorhizobium meliloti is a soil bacterium that fixes atmospheric nitrogen in plant roots. The high genetic diversity of its natural populations has been the subject of extensive analysis. Recent genomic studies of several isolates revealed a high content of variable genes, suggesting a correspondingly large phenotypic differentiation among strains of S. meliloti. Here, using the Phenotype MicroArray (PM) system, hundreds of different growth conditions were tested in order to compare the metabolic capabilities of the laboratory reference strain Rm1021 with those of four natural S. meliloti isolates previously analyzed by comparative genomic hybridization (CGH). The results of PM analysis showed that most phenotypic differences involved carbon source utilization and tolerance to osmolytes and pH, while fewer differences were scored for nitrogen, phosphorus, and sulfur source utilization. Only the variability of the tested strain in tolerance to sodium nitrite and ammonium sulfate of pH 8 was hypothesized to be associated with the genetic polymorphisms detected by CGH analysis. Colony and cell morphologies and the ability to nodulate Medicago truncatula plants were also compared, revealing further phenotypic diversity. Overall, our results suggest that the study of functional (phenotypic) variability of S. meliloti populations is an important and complementary step in the investigation of genetic polymorphism of rhizobia and may help to elucidate rhizobial evolutionary dynamics, including adaptation to diverse environments. PMID:19561177

Effects of climate variability on global scale flood risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, P.; Dettinger, M. D.; Kummu, M.; Jongman, B.; Sperna Weiland, F.; Winsemius, H.

2013-12-01

In this contribution we demonstrate the influence of climate variability on flood risk. Globally, flooding is one of the worst natural hazards in terms of economic damages; Munich Re estimates global losses in the last decade to be in excess of $240 billion. As a result, scientifically sound estimates of flood risk at the largest scales are increasingly needed by industry (including multinational companies and the insurance industry) and policy communities. Several assessments of global scale flood risk under current and conditions have recently become available, and this year has seen the first studies assessing how flood risk may change in the future due to global change. However, the influence of climate variability on flood risk has as yet hardly been studied, despite the fact that: (a) in other fields (drought, hurricane damage, food production) this variability is as important for policy and practice as long term change; and (b) climate variability has a strong influence in peak riverflows around the world. To address this issue, this contribution illustrates the influence of ENSO-driven climate variability on flood risk, at both the globally aggregated scale and the scale of countries and large river basins. Although it exerts significant and widespread influences on flood peak discharges in many parts of the world, we show that ENSO does not have a statistically significant influence on flood risk once aggregated to global totals. At the scale of individual countries, though, strong relationships exist over large parts of the Earth's surface. For example, we find particularly strong anomalies of flood risk in El Niño or La Niña years (compared to all years) in southern Africa, parts of western Africa, Australia, parts of Central Eurasia (especially for El Niño), the western USA (especially for La Niña), and parts of South America. These findings have large implications for both decadal climate-risk projections and long-term future climate change research. We carried out the research by simulating daily river discharge using a global hydrological model (PCR-GLOBWB), forced with gridded climate reanalysis time-series. From this, we derived peak annual flood volumes for large-scale river basins globally. These were used to force a global inundation model (dynRout) to map inundation extent and depth for return periods between 2 and 1000 years, under El Niño conditions, neutral conditions, and La Niña conditions. Theses flood hazard maps were combined with global datasets on socioeconomic variables such as population and income to represent the socioeconomic exposure to flooding, and depth-damage curves to represent vulnerability.

Contribution of anthropogenic warming to California drought during 2012-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, P.; Seager, R.; Abatzoglou, J. T.; Cook, B.; Smerdon, J. E.; Cook, E. R.

2015-12-01

California is currently in its fourth year of a drought that has caused record-breaking rates of ground-water extraction, fallowed agricultural fields, changes to water-use policy, dangrously low lake levels, and ecological disturbances such as large wildfires and bark-beetle outbreaks. A common and important question is: to what degree can the severity of this drought in California, or of any drought globally, be blamed on human-caused global warming? Here we present the most comprehensive accounting of the natural and anthropogenic contributions to drought variability to date, and we provide an in-depth evaluation of the recent extreme drought in California. A suite of climate datasets and multiple representations of atmospheric moisture demand are used to calculate many estimates of the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index, a proxy for near-surface soil moisture, across California from 1901-2014 at high spatial resolution. Based on the ensemble of calculations, California drought conditions were record-breaking in 2014, but probably not record-breaking in 2012-2014, contrary to prior findings. Regionally, the 2012-2014 drought was record-breaking in the agriculturally important southern Central Valley and highly populated coastal areas. Contributions of individual climate variables to recent drought are also examined, including the temperature component associated with anthropogenic warming. Precipitation is the primary driver of drought variability but anthropogenic warming is estimated to have accounted for 8-27% of the observed drought anomaly in 2012-2014 and 5-18% in 2014. Analyses will be updated through 2015 for this presentation. Although natural climate variability has often masked the background effects of warming on drought, the background effect is becoming increasingly detectable and important, particularly by increased the overall likelihood of extreme California droughts. The dramatic effects of the current drought in California, combined with knowledge that the background warming-driven drought trend will continue to intensify amidst a high degree of natural climate variability, highlight the critical need for a long-term outlook on drought resilience even though wet conditions are likely to soon mitigate the current drought event.

Chlorophyll a and inorganic suspended solids in backwaters of the upper Mississippi River system: Backwater lake effects and their associations with selected environmental predictors

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rogala, James T.; Gray, Brian R.

2006-01-01

The Long Term Resource Monitoring Program (LTRMP) uses a stratified random sampling design to obtain water quality statistics within selected study reaches of the Upper Mississippi River System (UMRS). LTRMP sampling strata are based on aquatic area types generally found in large rivers (e.g., main channel, side channel, backwater, and impounded areas). For hydrologically well-mixed strata (i.e., main channel), variance associated with spatial scales smaller than the strata scale is a relatively minor issue for many water quality parameters. However, analysis of LTRMP water quality data has shown that within-strata variability at the strata scale is high in off-channel areas (i.e., backwaters). A portion of that variability may be associated with differences among individual backwater lakes (i.e., small and large backwater regions separated by channels) that cumulatively make up the backwater stratum. The objective of the statistical modeling presented here is to determine if differences among backwater lakes account for a large portion of the variance observed in the backwater stratum for selected parameters. If variance associated with backwater lakes is high, then inclusion of backwater lake effects within statistical models is warranted. Further, lakes themselves may represent natural experimental units where associations of interest to management may be estimated.

Supercontinent cycles, true polar wander, and very long-wavelength mantle convection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, Shijie; Zhang, Nan; Li, Zheng-Xiang; Roberts, James H.

2007-09-01

We show in this paper that mobile-lid mantle convection in a three-dimensional spherical shell with observationally constrained mantle viscosity structure, and realistic convective vigor and internal heating rate is characterized by either a spherical harmonic degree-1 planform with a major upwelling in one hemisphere and a major downwelling in the other hemisphere when continents are absent, or a degree-2 planform with two antipodal major upwellings when a supercontinent is present. We propose that due to modulation of continents, these two modes of mantle convection alternate within the Earth's mantle, causing the cyclic processes of assembly and breakup of supercontinents including Rodinia and Pangea in the last 1 Ga. Our model suggests that the largely degree-2 structure for the present-day mantle with the Africa and Pacific antipodal superplumes, is a natural consequence of this dynamic process of very long-wavelength mantle convection interacting with supercontinent Pangea. Our model explains the basic features of true polar wander (TPW) events for Rodinia and Pangea including their equatorial locations and large variability of TPW inferred from paleomagnetic studies. Our model also suggests that TPW is expected to be more variable and large during supercontinent assembly, but small after a supercontinent acquires its equatorial location and during its subsequent dispersal.

Ecological restoration of southwestern ponderosa pine ecosystems: A broad perspective

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allen, Craig D.; Savage, Melissa; Falk, Donald A.; Suckling, Kieran F.; Swetnam, Thomas W.; Schulke, Todd; Stacey, Peter B.; Morgan, Penelope; Hoffman, Martos; Klingel, Jon T.

2002-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to promote a broad and flexible perspective on ecological restoration of Southwestern (U.S.) ponderosa pine forests. Ponderosa pine forests in the region have been radically altered by Euro-American land uses, including livestock grazing, fire suppression, and logging. Dense thickets of young trees now abound, old-growth and biodiversity have declined, and human and ecological communities are increasingly vulnerable to destructive crown fires. A consensus has emerged that it is urgent to restore more natural conditions to these forests. Efforts to restore Southwestern forests will require extensive projects employing varying combinations of young-tree thinning and reintroduction of low-intensity fires. Treatments must be flexible enough to recognize and accommodate: high levels of natural heterogeneity; dynamic ecosystems; wildlife and other biodiversity considerations; scientific uncertainty; and the challenges of on-the-ground implementation. Ecological restoration should reset ecosystem trends toward an envelope of “natural variability,” including the reestablishment of natural processes. Reconstructed historic reference conditions are best used as general guides rather than rigid restoration prescriptions. In the long term, the best way to align forest conditions to track ongoing climate changes is to restore fire, which naturally correlates with current climate. Some stands need substantial structural manipulation (thinning) before fire can safely be reintroduced. In other areas, such as large wilderness and roadless areas, fire alone may suffice as the main tool of ecological restoration, recreating the natural interaction of structure and process. Impatience, overreaction to crown fire risks, extractive economics, or hubris could lead to widespread application of highly intrusive treatments that may further damage forest ecosystems. Investments in research and monitoring of restoration treatments are essential to refine restoration methods. We support the development and implementation of a diverse range of scientifically viable restoration approaches in these forests, suggest principles for ecologically sound restoration that immediately reduce crown fire risk and incrementally return natural variability and resilience to Southwestern forests, and present ecological perspectives on several forest restoration approaches.

Ensemble simulations of the role of the stratosphere in the attribution of northern extratropical tropospheric ozone variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hess, P.; Kinnison, D.; Tang, Q.

2015-03-01

Despite the need to understand the impact of changes in emissions and climate on tropospheric ozone, the attribution of tropospheric interannual ozone variability to specific processes has proven difficult. Here, we analyze the stratospheric contribution to tropospheric ozone variability and trends from 1953 to 2005 in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) mid-latitudes using four ensemble simulations of the free running (FR) Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). The simulations are externally forced with observed time-varying (1) sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), (2) greenhouse gases (GHGs), (3) ozone depleting substances (ODS), (4) quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), (5) solar variability (SV) and (6) stratospheric sulfate surface area density (SAD). A detailed representation of stratospheric chemistry is simulated, including the ozone loss due to volcanic eruptions and polar stratospheric clouds. In the troposphere, ozone production is represented by CH4-NOx smog chemistry, where surface chemical emissions remain interannually constant. Despite the simplicity of its tropospheric chemistry, at many NH measurement locations, the interannual ozone variability in the FR WACCM simulations is significantly correlated with the measured interannual variability. This suggests the importance of the external forcing applied in these simulations in driving interannual ozone variability. The variability and trend in the simulated 1953-2005 tropospheric ozone from 30 to 90° N at background surface measurement sites, 500 hPa measurement sites and in the area average are largely explained on interannual timescales by changes in the 30-90° N area averaged flux of ozone across the 100 hPa surface and changes in tropospheric methane concentrations. The average sensitivity of tropospheric ozone to methane (percent change in ozone to a percent change in methane) from 30 to 90° N is 0.17 at 500 hPa and 0.21 at the surface; the average sensitivity of tropospheric ozone to the 100 hPa ozone flux (percent change in ozone to a percent change in the ozone flux) from 30 to 90° N is 0.19 at 500 hPa and 0.11 at the surface. The 30-90° N simulated downward residual velocity at 100 hPa increased by 15% between 1953 and 2005. However, the impact of this on the 30-90° N 100 hPa ozone flux is modulated by the long-term changes in stratospheric ozone. The ozone flux decreases from 1965 to 1990 due to stratospheric ozone depletion, but increases again by approximately 7% from 1990 to 2005. The first empirical orthogonal function of interannual ozone variability explains from 40% (at the surface) to over 80% (at 150 hPa) of the simulated ozone interannual variability from 30 to 90° N. This identified mode of ozone variability shows strong stratosphere-troposphere coupling, demonstrating the importance of the stratosphere in an attribution of tropospheric ozone variability. The simulations, with no change in emissions, capture almost 50% of the measured ozone change during the 1990s at a variety of locations. This suggests that a large portion of the measured change is not due to changes in emissions, but can be traced to changes in large-scale modes of ozone variability. This emphasizes the difficulty in the attribution of ozone changes, and the importance of natural variability in understanding the trends and variability of ozone. We find little relation between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index and large-scale tropospheric ozone variability over the long-term record.

Sparse targets in hydroacoustic surveys: Balancing quantity and quality of in situ target strength data

USGS Publications Warehouse

DuFour, Mark R.; Mayer, Christine M.; Kocovsky, Patrick; Qian, Song; Warner, David M.; Kraus, Richard T.; Vandergoot, Christopher

2017-01-01

Hydroacoustic sampling of low-density fish in shallow water can lead to low sample sizes of naturally variable target strength (TS) estimates, resulting in both sparse and variable data. Increasing maximum beam compensation (BC) beyond conventional values (i.e., 3 dB beam width) can recover more targets during data analysis; however, data quality decreases near the acoustic beam edges. We identified the optimal balance between data quantity and quality with increasing BC using a standard sphere calibration, and we quantified the effect of BC on fish track variability, size structure, and density estimates of Lake Erie walleye (Sander vitreus). Standard sphere mean TS estimates were consistent with theoretical values (−39.6 dB) up to 18-dB BC, while estimates decreased at greater BC values. Natural sources (i.e., residual and mean TS) dominated total fish track variation, while contributions from measurement related error (i.e., number of single echo detections (SEDs) and BC) were proportionally low. Increasing BC led to more fish encounters and SEDs per fish, while stability in size structure and density were observed at intermediate values (e.g., 18 dB). Detection of medium to large fish (i.e., age-2+ walleye) benefited most from increasing BC, as proportional changes in size structure and density were greatest in these size categories. Therefore, when TS data are sparse and variable, increasing BC to an optimal value (here 18 dB) will maximize the TS data quantity while limiting lower-quality data near the beam edges.

Some Open Issues on Rockfall Hazard Analysis in Fractured Rock Mass: Problems and Prospects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferrero, Anna Maria; Migliazza, Maria Rita; Pirulli, Marina; Umili, Gessica

2016-09-01

Risk is part of every sector of engineering design. It is a consequence of the uncertainties connected with the cognitive boundaries and with the natural variability of the relevant variables. In soil and rock engineering, in particular, uncertainties are linked to geometrical and mechanical aspects and the model used for the problem schematization. While the uncertainties due to the cognitive gaps could be filled by improving the quality of numerical codes and measuring instruments, nothing can be done to remove the randomness of natural variables, except defining their variability with stochastic approaches. Probabilistic analyses represent a useful tool to run parametric analyses and to identify the more significant aspects of a given phenomenon: They can be used for a rational quantification and mitigation of risk. The connection between the cognitive level and the probability of failure is at the base of the determination of hazard, which is often quantified through the assignment of safety factors. But these factors suffer from conceptual limits, which can be only overcome by adopting mathematical techniques with sound bases, not so used up to now (Einstein et al. in rock mechanics in civil and environmental engineering, CRC Press, London, 3-13, 2010; Brown in J Rock Mech Geotech Eng 4(3):193-204, 2012). The present paper describes the problems and the more reliable techniques used to quantify the uncertainties that characterize the large number of parameters that are involved in rock slope hazard assessment through a real case specifically related to rockfall. Limits of the existing approaches and future developments of the research are also provided.

Trophic ecology of the swimming crab Polybius henslowii Leach, 1820 in Galician and Cantabrian Seas: Influences of natural variability and the Prestige oil spill

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Signa, G.; Cartes, J. E.; Solé, M.; Serrano, A.; Sánchez, F.

2008-11-01

Diet and feeding intensity of the portunid crab Polybius henslowii were studied during the spring of 2004 along Galician and Cantabrian continental shelves (NW Iberian Peninsula) between 78 and 287 m. The area had been affected by the Prestige oil spill in November 2002, with different sectors at different levels of pollution: highest in between Miño River and Cape Finisterre (MF) and from there to Estaca de Bares Point (FE) and lowest from Estaca to Cape Peñas (EP). From 37272 specimens collected in 59 bottom hauls, 342 were analysed for stomach fullness and diet composition. Stomach fullness was lower in FE, but with no significant differences among sectors. Diet was a mixture of pelagic and benthic prey: cephalopods ( Ilex coindetti), brachyurans ( P. henslowii) and polychaetes ( Glycera sp.). Other prey were beloniform eggs and fish remains. Two stress markers were also studied in some specimens: Acetylcholinesterase (a neurotoxicity marker) varied among sampled areas, while lipid peroxidation (an oxidative stress marker) did not. Changes in trophic variables, distribution and density were analysed in relation to depth, surface and bottom T, surface Chl a from satellite imagery and tar aggregate concentration in sediments. Along Galician and Cantabrian coasts prey availability, linked to productivity level, seems to be the main factor affecting P. henslowii diet and distribution. Interannual abundance variability seems to be controlled by large-scale climatic conditions (NAO index). This natural variability masks possible effects induced by the oil spill.

The interaction rainfall vs. weight as determinant of total mercury concentration in fish from a tropical estuary.

PubMed

Barletta, M; Lucena, L R R; Costa, M F; Barbosa-Cintra, S C T; Cysneiros, F J A

2012-08-01

Mercury loads in tropical estuaries are largely controlled by the rainfall regime that may cause biodilution due to increased amounts of organic matter (both live and non-living) in the system. Top predators, as Trichiurus lepturus, reflect the changing mercury bioavailability situations in their muscle tissues. In this work two variables [fish weight (g) and monthly total rainfall (mm)] are presented as being important predictors of total mercury concentration (T-Hg) in fish muscle. These important explanatory variables were identified by a Weibull Regression model, which best fit the dataset. A predictive model using readily available variables as rainfall is important, and can be applied for human and ecological health assessments and decisions. The main contribution will be to further protect vulnerable groups as pregnant women and children. Nature conservation directives could also improve by considering monitoring sample designs that include this hypothesis, helping to establish complete and detailed mercury contamination scenarios. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Interannual variability of human plague occurrence in the Western United States explained by tropical and North Pacific Ocean climate variability.

PubMed

Ari, Tamara Ben; Gershunov, Alexander; Tristan, Rouyer; Cazelles, Bernard; Gage, Kenneth; Stenseth, Nils C

2010-09-01

Plague is a vector-borne, highly virulent zoonotic disease caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis. It persists in nature through transmission between its hosts (wild rodents) and vectors (fleas). During epizootics, the disease expands and spills over to other host species such as humans living in or close to affected areas. Here, we investigate the effect of large-scale climate variability on the dynamics of human plague in the western United States using a 56-year time series of plague reports (1950-2005). We found that El Niño Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation in combination affect the dynamics of human plague over the western United States. The underlying mechanism could involve changes in precipitation and temperatures that impact both hosts and vectors. It is suggested that snow also may play a key role, possibly through its effects on summer soil moisture, which is known to be instrumental for flea survival and development and sustained growth of vegetation for rodents.

We Know the Yin—But Where Is the Yang? Toward a Balanced Approach on Common Source Bias in Public Administration Scholarship

PubMed Central

George, Bert; Pandey, Sanjay K.

2017-01-01

Surveys have long been a dominant instrument for data collection in public administration. However, it has become widely accepted in the last decade that the usage of a self-reported instrument to measure both the independent and dependent variables results in common source bias (CSB). In turn, CSB is argued to inflate correlations between variables, resulting in biased findings. Subsequently, a narrow blinkered approach on the usage of surveys as single data source has emerged. In this article, we argue that this approach has resulted in an unbalanced perspective on CSB. We argue that claims on CSB are exaggerated, draw upon selective evidence, and project what should be tentative inferences as certainty over large domains of inquiry. We also discuss the perceptual nature of some variables and measurement validity concerns in using archival data. In conclusion, we present a flowchart that public administration scholars can use to analyze CSB concerns. PMID:29046599

We Know the Yin-But Where Is the Yang? Toward a Balanced Approach on Common Source Bias in Public Administration Scholarship.

PubMed

George, Bert; Pandey, Sanjay K

2017-06-01

Surveys have long been a dominant instrument for data collection in public administration. However, it has become widely accepted in the last decade that the usage of a self-reported instrument to measure both the independent and dependent variables results in common source bias (CSB). In turn, CSB is argued to inflate correlations between variables, resulting in biased findings. Subsequently, a narrow blinkered approach on the usage of surveys as single data source has emerged. In this article, we argue that this approach has resulted in an unbalanced perspective on CSB. We argue that claims on CSB are exaggerated, draw upon selective evidence, and project what should be tentative inferences as certainty over large domains of inquiry. We also discuss the perceptual nature of some variables and measurement validity concerns in using archival data. In conclusion, we present a flowchart that public administration scholars can use to analyze CSB concerns.

The Laughlin liquid in an external potential

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rougerie, Nicolas; Yngvason, Jakob

2018-04-01

We study natural perturbations of the Laughlin state arising from the effects of trapping and disorder. These are N-particle wave functions that have the form of a product of Laughlin states and analytic functions of the N variables. We derive an upper bound to the ground state energy in a confining external potential, matching exactly a recently derived lower bound in the large N limit. Irrespective of the shape of the confining potential, this sharp upper bound can be achieved through a modification of the Laughlin function by suitably arranged quasi-holes.

A reactive transport modelling approach to assess the leaching potential of hydraulic fracturing fluids associated with coal seam gas extraction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mallants, Dirk; Simunek, Jirka; Gerke, Kirill

2015-04-01

Coal Seam Gas production generates large volumes of "produced" water that may contain compounds originating from the use of hydraulic fracturing fluids. Such produced water also contains elevated concentrations of naturally occurring inorganic and organic compounds, and usually has a high salinity. Leaching of produced water from storage ponds may occur as a result of flooding or containment failure. Some produced water is used for irrigation of specific crops tolerant to elevated salt levels. These chemicals may potentially contaminate soil, shallow groundwater, and groundwater, as well as receiving surface waters. This paper presents an application of scenario modelling using the reactive transport model for variably-saturated media HP1 (coupled HYDRUS-1D and PHREEQC). We evaluate the fate of hydraulic fracturing chemicals and naturally occurring chemicals in soil as a result of unintentional release from storage ponds or when produced water from Coal Seam Gas operations is used in irrigation practices. We present a review of exposure pathways and relevant hydro-bio-geo-chemical processes, a collation of physico-chemical properties of organic/inorganic contaminants as input to a set of generic simulations of transport and attenuation in variably saturated soil profiles. We demonstrate the ability to model the coupled processes of flow and transport in soil of contaminants associated with hydraulic fracturing fluids and naturally occurring contaminants.

A Search for Photometric Variability in the Young T3.5 Planetary-mass Companion GU Psc b

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naud, Marie-Eve; Artigau, Étienne; Rowe, Jason F.; Doyon, René; Malo, Lison; Albert, Loïc; Gagné, Jonathan; Bouchard, Sandie

2017-10-01

We present a photometric J-band variability study of GU Psc b, a T3.5 co-moving planetary-mass companion (9-13 {M}{Jup}) to a young (˜150 Myr) M3 member of the AB Doradus Moving Group. The large separation between GU Psc b and its host star (42″) provides a rare opportunity to study the photometric variability of a planetary-mass companion. The study presented here is based on observations obtained from 2013 to 2014 over three nights with durations of 5-6 hr each with the WIRCam imager at Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope. Photometric variability with a peak-to-peak amplitude of 4 ± 1% at a timescale of ˜6 hr was marginally detected on 2014 October 11. No high-significance variability was detected on 2013 December 22 and 2014 October 10. The amplitude and timescale of the variability seen here, as well as its evolving nature, is comparable to what was observed for a variety of field T dwarfs and suggests that mechanisms invoked to explain brown dwarf variability may be applicable to low-gravity objects such as GU Psc b. Rotation-induced photometric variability due to the formation and dissipation of atmospheric features such as clouds is a plausible hypothesis for the tentative variation detected here. Additional photometric measurements, particularly on longer timescales, will be required to confirm and characterize the variability of GU Psc b, determine its periodicity and to potentially measure its rotation period.

Great Basin vegetation response to groundwater fluctuation, climate variability, and previous land cultivation: The application of multitemporal measurements from remote sensing data to regional vegetation dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elmore, Andrew James

The conversion of large natural basins to managed watersheds for the purpose of providing water to urban centers has had a negative impact on semiarid ecosystems, worldwide. We view semiarid plant communities as being adapted to short, regular periods of drought. However, human induced changes in the water balance often remove these systems from the range of natural variability that has been historically established. This thesis explores vegetation changes over a 13-yr period for Owens Valley, in eastern California. Using remotely sensed measurements of vegetation cover, an extensive vegetation survey, field data and observations, precipitation records, and data on water table depth, I identify the key modes of response of xeric, phreatophytic, and exotic Great Basin plant communities. Three specific advancements were reached as a result of this work. (1) A change classification technique was developed that was used to separate regions of land-cover that were dependent on precipitation from regions dependent on groundwater. This technique utilized Spectral Mixture Analysis of annually acquired Landsat Thematic Mapper remote sensing data, to retrieve regional estimates of percent vegetation cover. (2) A threshold response related to depth-to-water dependence was identified for phreatophytic Alkali Meadow communities. Plant communities that were subject to groundwater depths below this threshold exhibited greater invasion by precipitation sensitive plants. (3) The floristic differences between previously cultivated and uncultivated land were found to account for an increased sensitivity of plant communities to precipitation variability. Through (2) and (3), two human influences (groundwater decline and previous land cultivation) were shown to alter land cover such that the land became more sensitive to precipitation change. Climate change predictions include a component of increased climate variability for the western United States; therefore, these results place serious doubt on the sustainability of human activities in this region. The results from this work broadly cover topics from remote sensing techniques to the ecology of Great Basin plant communities and are applicable wherever large regions of land are being managed in an era of changing environmental conditions.

Using Time Series of Landsat Data to Improve Understanding of Short- and Long-Term Changes to Vegetation Phenology in Response to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Friedl, M. A.; Melaas, E. K.; Sulla-menashe, D. J.; Gray, J. M.

2014-12-01

Phenology, the seasonal progression of organisms through stages of dormancy, active growth, and senescence is a key regulator of ecosystem processes and is widely used as an indicator of vegetation responses to climate change. This is especially true in temperate forests, where seasonal dynamics in canopy development and senescence are tightly coupled to the climate system. Despite this, understanding of climate-phenology interactions is incomplete. A key impediment to improving this understanding is that available datasets are geographically sparse, and in most cases include relatively short time series. Remote sensing has been widely promoted as a useful tool for studies of large-scale phenology, but long-term studies from remote sensing have been limited to AVHRR data, which suffers from limitations related to its coarse spatial resolution and uncertainties in atmospheric corrections and radiometric adjustments that are used to create AVHRR time series. In this study, we used 30 years of Landsat data to quantify the nature and magnitude of long-term trends and short-term variability in the timing of spring leaf emergence and fall senescence. Our analysis focuses on temperate forest locations in the Northeastern United States that are co-located with surface meteorological observations, where we have estimated the timing of leaf emergence and leaf senescence at annual time steps using atmospherically corrected surface reflectances from Landsat TM and ETM+ imagery. Comparison of results from Landsat against ground observations demonstrates that phenological events can be reliably estimated from Landsat time series. More importantly, results from this analysis suggest two main conclusions related to the nature of climate change impacts on temperate forest phenology. First, there is clear evidence of trends towards longer growing seasons in the Landsat record. Second, interannual variability is large, with average year-to-year variability exceeding the magnitude of total changes to the growing season that have occurred over the last three decades. Based on these results we suggest that year-to-year variability in phenology, rather than long-term trends, provides the best basis for predicting future changes in temperate forest phenology in response to climate change.

Detecting Emergence of Acidification and Warming as Stressors for Coral Reef Regions using Earth System Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menendez, A. T.

2015-12-01

Coral reef ecosystems rely on complex interactions between biological, biogeochemical, and physical processes to ensure their survival and resilience. However, both human interaction and anthropogenic climate change have negatively impacted the prosperity of these regions, resulting in a crucial need to understand and predict the future of important biogeochemical and physical stressors. Contemporary changes to these relationships and environmental conditions in coral reef ecosystems are a mixture of anthropogenic contributions and natural variability (e.g. ENSO) of the climate system. To better quantify the uncertainty in future projections, it is exceedingly necessary to differentiate between these two contributors. In this study we look at acidification and warming stressors in the Galapagos, Coral Triangle, and Hawaiian islands regions. We use a suite of hindcast simulations (a 30-member large initial condition ensemble) done with an Earth Systems Model (GFDL-ESM2M) in order quantify the degree to which natural variability alters the emergence time-scales of anthropogenically-induced changes to ecosystem drivers such as pH, ΩArag, and SST. A comparison of output from a suit of CMIP5 models will be used to evaluate model uncertainty for the same regions. Simulated trends and variability in these ecosystem drivers were then compared to observed trends over the three Pacific regions. Evidently the models and observed trends proved invaluable for testing the hypothesis addressing the presence of a temporal hierarchy between emergence, defined by a signal-to-noise ratio, of acidification stressors and temperature as a stressor. Furthermore, challenges in deconvolving anthropogenic and natural contributions to stressor trends will be discussed for each of the three sites.

Detection and sequence/structure mapping of biophysical constraints to protein variation in saturated mutational libraries and protein sequence alignments with a dedicated server.

PubMed

Abriata, Luciano A; Bovigny, Christophe; Dal Peraro, Matteo

2016-06-17

Protein variability can now be studied by measuring high-resolution tolerance-to-substitution maps and fitness landscapes in saturated mutational libraries. But these rich and expensive datasets are typically interpreted coarsely, restricting detailed analyses to positions of extremely high or low variability or dubbed important beforehand based on existing knowledge about active sites, interaction surfaces, (de)stabilizing mutations, etc. Our new webserver PsychoProt (freely available without registration at http://psychoprot.epfl.ch or at http://lucianoabriata.altervista.org/psychoprot/index.html ) helps to detect, quantify, and sequence/structure map the biophysical and biochemical traits that shape amino acid preferences throughout a protein as determined by deep-sequencing of saturated mutational libraries or from large alignments of naturally occurring variants. We exemplify how PsychoProt helps to (i) unveil protein structure-function relationships from experiments and from alignments that are consistent with structures according to coevolution analysis, (ii) recall global information about structural and functional features and identify hitherto unknown constraints to variation in alignments, and (iii) point at different sources of variation among related experimental datasets or between experimental and alignment-based data. Remarkably, metabolic costs of the amino acids pose strong constraints to variability at protein surfaces in nature but not in the laboratory. This and other differences call for caution when extrapolating results from in vitro experiments to natural scenarios in, for example, studies of protein evolution. We show through examples how PsychoProt can be a useful tool for the broad communities of structural biology and molecular evolution, particularly for studies about protein modeling, evolution and design.

Hydrological classification of natural flow regimes to support environmental flow assessments in intensively regulated Mediterranean rivers, Segura River Basin (Spain).

PubMed

Belmar, Oscar; Velasco, Josefa; Martinez-Capel, Francisco

2011-05-01

Hydrological classification constitutes the first step of a new holistic framework for developing regional environmental flow criteria: the "Ecological Limits of Hydrologic Alteration (ELOHA)". The aim of this study was to develop a classification for 390 stream sections of the Segura River Basin based on 73 hydrological indices that characterize their natural flow regimes. The hydrological indices were calculated with 25 years of natural monthly flows (1980/81-2005/06) derived from a rainfall-runoff model developed by the Spanish Ministry of Environment and Public Works. These indices included, at a monthly or annual basis, measures of duration of droughts and central tendency and dispersion of flow magnitude (average, low and high flow conditions). Principal Component Analysis (PCA) indicated high redundancy among most hydrological indices, as well as two gradients: flow magnitude for mainstream rivers and temporal variability for tributary streams. A classification with eight flow-regime classes was chosen as the most easily interpretable in the Segura River Basin, which was supported by ANOSIM analyses. These classes can be simplified in 4 broader groups, with different seasonal discharge pattern: large rivers, perennial stable streams, perennial seasonal streams and intermittent and ephemeral streams. They showed a high degree of spatial cohesion, following a gradient associated with climatic aridity from NW to SE, and were well defined in terms of the fundamental variables in Mediterranean streams: magnitude and temporal variability of flows. Therefore, this classification is a fundamental tool to support water management and planning in the Segura River Basin. Future research will allow us to study the flow alteration-ecological response relationship for each river type, and set the basis to design scientifically credible environmental flows following the ELOHA framework.

Small-scale variability in peatland pore-water biogeochemistry, Hudson Bay Lowland, Canada.

PubMed

Ulanowski, T A; Branfireun, B A

2013-06-01

The Hudson Bay Lowland (HBL) of northern Ontario, Manitoba and Quebec, Canada is the second largest contiguous peatland complex in the world, currently containing more than half of Canada's soil carbon. Recent concerns about the ecohydrological impacts to these large northern peatlands resulting from climate change and resource extraction have catalyzed a resurgence in scientific research into this ecologically important region. However, the sheer size, heterogeneity and elaborate landscape arrangements of this ecosystem raise important questions concerning representative sampling of environmental media for chemical or physical characterization. To begin to quantify such variability, this study assessed the small-scale spatial (1m) and short temporal (21 day) variability of surface pore-water biogeochemistry (pH, dissolved organic carbon, and major ions) in a Sphagnum spp.-dominated, ombrotrophic raised bog, and a Carex spp.-dominated intermediate fen in the HBL. In general, pore-water pH and concentrations of dissolved solutes were similar to previously reported literature values from this region. However, systematic sampling revealed consistent statistically significant differences in pore-water chemistries between the bog and fen peatland types, and large within-site spatiotemporal variability. We found that microtopography in the bog was associated with consistent differences in most biogeochemical variables. Temporal changes in dissolved solute chemistry, particularly base cations (Na(+), Ca(2+) and Mg(2+)), were statistically significant in the intermediate fen, likely a result of a dynamic connection between surficial waters and mineral-rich deep groundwater. In both the bog and fen, concentrations of SO4(2-) showed considerable spatial variability, and a significant decrease in concentrations over the study period. The observed variability in peatland pore-water biogeochemistry over such small spatial and temporal scales suggests that under-sampling in northern peatland environments could lead to erroneous conclusions concerning the abundance and distribution of natural elements and pollutants alike. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatio-seasonal variability of chromophoric dissolved organic matter absorption and responses to photobleaching in a large shallow temperate lake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Encina Aulló-Maestro, María; Hunter, Peter; Spyrakos, Evangelos; Mercatoris, Pierre; Kovács, Attila; Horváth, Hajnalka; Preston, Tom; Présing, Mátyás; Torres Palenzuela, Jesús; Tyler, Andrew

2017-03-01

The development and validation of remote-sensing-based approaches for the retrieval of chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) concentrations requires a comprehensive understanding of the sources and magnitude of variability in the optical properties of dissolved material within lakes. In this study, spatial and seasonal variability in concentration and composition of CDOM and the origin of its variation was studied in Lake Balaton (Hungary), a large temperate shallow lake in central Europe. In addition, we investigated the effect of photobleaching on the optical properties of CDOM through in-lake incubation experiments. There was marked variability throughout the year in CDOM absorption in Lake Balaton (aCDOM(440) = 0. 06-9.01 m-1). The highest values were consistently observed at the mouth of the main inflow (Zala River), which drains humic-rich material from the adjoining Kis-Balaton wetland, but CDOM absorption decreased rapidly towards the east where it was consistently lower and less variable than in the westernmost lake basins. The spectral slope parameter for the interval of 350-500 nm (SCDOM(350-500)) was more variable with increasing distance from the inflow (observed range 0.0161-0.0181 nm-1 for the mouth of the main inflow and 0.0158-0.0300 nm-1 for waters closer to the outflow). However, spatial variation in SCDOM was more constant exhibiting a negative correlation with aCDOM(440). Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) was strongly positively correlated with aCDOM(440) and followed a similar seasonal trend but it demonstrated more variability than either aCDOM or SCDOM with distance through the system. Photobleaching resulting from a 7-day exposure to natural solar UV radiation resulted in a marked decrease in allochthonous CDOM absorption (7.04 to 3.36 m-1, 42 % decrease). Photodegradation also resulted in an increase in the spectral slope coefficient of dissolved material.

A study of the nonlinear aerodynamics of bodies in nonplanar motion. Ph.D. Thesis - Stanford Univ., Calif.; [numerical analysis of aerodynamic force and moment systems during large amplitude, arbitrary motions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schiff, L. B.

1974-01-01

Concepts from the theory of functionals are used to develop nonlinear formulations of the aerodynamic force and moment systems acting on bodies in large-amplitude, arbitrary motions. The analysis, which proceeds formally once the functional dependence of the aerodynamic reactions upon the motion variables is established, ensures the inclusion, within the resulting formulation, of pertinent aerodynamic terms that normally are excluded in the classical treatment. Applied to the large-amplitude, slowly varying, nonplanar motion of a body, the formulation suggests that the aerodynamic moment can be compounded of the moments acting on the body in four basic motions: steady angle of attack, pitch oscillations, either roll or yaw oscillations, and coning motion. Coning, where the nose of the body describes a circle around the velocity vector, characterizes the nonplanar nature of the general motion.

Coral-based estimates of tropical Pacific climate during the Little Ice Age: Intercolony variability and the need for replication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sayani, H. R.; Cobb, K. M.; Khare, A.; Stone, C.; Grothe, P. R.; Chen, T.; Lu, Y.; Cheng, H.; Edwards, R. L.

2016-02-01

Massive surface corals offer continuous, high-resolution records of tropical climate variability, but reconstructing climate beyond the last century requires combining records from many different coral colonies [e.g. Cobb et al., 2003]. When combining coral records to build a reconstruction, however, one must grapple with the fact that corals growing on the same reef can yield Sr/Ca and δ18O records with significantly different mean values. These intercolony offsets equate to uncertainties of 1-3˚C when converted to SST [e.g. Felis et al., 2003; DeLong et al., 2011], significantly larger than the magnitude of decadal- to centennial-scale tropical climate variability during the last millennium [Emile-Geay et al., 2013]. Using a large suite of modern coral cores from Palmyra Atoll (6°N, 162°W), we quantify intercolony variability in Sr/Ca and δ18O records with respect to Sr/Ca-SST slopes and mean offsets. We document intercolony Sr/Ca offsets of ±0.09mmol/mol (1σ) or 1˚C, and δ18O offsets of ±0.04‰ or 0.2˚C. Sr/Ca-SST calibrations from six cores differ by ±5%, yielding temperatures ranging 26˚C to 29˚C when applied to a given coral Sr/Ca value. While individual corals are associated with large uncertainties, a composite of six modern cores offers a much reduced error bar of ±0.6˚C (1s). Applying these lessons to paired Sr/Ca and δ18O records from 3 Palmyra fossil corals from the 17th century, we find that central tropical Pacific (CTP) SST during the Little Ice Age (LIA) was 1.7±0.9˚C cooler than the 20th century. Seawater δ18O estimates derived from these fossil corals suggest drier conditions at Palmyra, consistent with lake sediment records from the Line Islands [Sachs et al., 2009]. References:Cobb, K. M., et al. (2003) Nature. 10.1038/nature01779DeLong, K. L., et al. (2011) Palaeogeo Palaeoclim Palaeoeco. 10.1016/J.Palaeo.2011.05.005Emile-Geay, J., et al. (2013) Journal of Climate. 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00511.1Felis, T., et al. (2003) Coral Reefs. 10.1007/s00338-003-0324-3Sachs, J. P., et al. (2009) Nature Geoscience. 10.1038/ngeo554

Multiyear predictability of tropical marine productivity

PubMed Central

Séférian, Roland; Bopp, Laurent; Gehlen, Marion; Swingedouw, Didier; Mignot, Juliette; Guilyardi, Eric; Servonnat, Jérôme

2014-01-01

With the emergence of decadal predictability simulations, research toward forecasting variations of the climate system now covers a large range of timescales. However, assessment of the capacity to predict natural variations of relevant biogeochemical variables like carbon fluxes, pH, or marine primary productivity remains unexplored. Among these, the net primary productivity (NPP) is of particular relevance in a forecasting perspective. Indeed, in regions like the tropical Pacific (30°N–30°S), NPP exhibits natural fluctuations at interannual to decadal timescales that have large impacts on marine ecosystems and fisheries. Here, we investigate predictions of NPP variations over the last decades (i.e., from 1997 to 2011) with an Earth system model within the tropical Pacific. Results suggest a predictive skill for NPP of 3 y, which is higher than that of sea surface temperature (1 y). We attribute the higher predictability of NPP to the poleward advection of nutrient anomalies (nitrate and iron), which sustain fluctuations in phytoplankton productivity over several years. These results open previously unidentified perspectives to the development of science-based management approaches to marine resources relying on integrated physical-biogeochemical forecasting systems. PMID:25071174

Landslides Are Common In The Amazon Rainforests Of SE Peru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khanal, S. P.; Muttiah, R. S.; Janovec, J. P.

2005-12-01

The recent landslides in La Conchita, California, Mumbai, India, Ratnapura, Sri Lanka and Sugozu village, Turkey have dramatically illustrated prolonged rainfall on water induced change in soil shear stress. In these examples, the human footprint may have also erased or altered the natural river drainage from small to large scales. By studying patterns of landslides in natural ecosystems, government officials, policy makers, engineers, geologists and others may be better informed about likely success of prevention or amelioration programs in risk prone areas. Our study area in the Los Amigos basin in Amazon rainforests of Southeastern Peru, has recorded several hundred landslides. The area has no large human settlements. The basin is characterized by heavy rainfall, dense vegetation, river meander and uniform soils. Our objectives were: 1). Determine the spatial pattern of landslides using GIS and Remotely sensed data, 2). Model the statistical relationship between environmental variables and, 3). Evaluate influence of drainage on landscape and soil loss. GIS layers consisted of: 50cm aerial imagery, DEMs, digitized streams, soils, geology, rainfall from the TRMM satellite, and vegetation cover from the LANDSAT and MODIS sensors.

Comparative genomics of wild type yeast strains unveils important genome diversity

PubMed Central

Carreto, Laura; Eiriz, Maria F; Gomes, Ana C; Pereira, Patrícia M; Schuller, Dorit; Santos, Manuel AS

2008-01-01

Background Genome variability generates phenotypic heterogeneity and is of relevance for adaptation to environmental change, but the extent of such variability in natural populations is still poorly understood. For example, selected Saccharomyces cerevisiae strains are variable at the ploidy level, have gene amplifications, changes in chromosome copy number, and gross chromosomal rearrangements. This suggests that genome plasticity provides important genetic diversity upon which natural selection mechanisms can operate. Results In this study, we have used wild-type S. cerevisiae (yeast) strains to investigate genome variation in natural and artificial environments. We have used comparative genome hybridization on array (aCGH) to characterize the genome variability of 16 yeast strains, of laboratory and commercial origin, isolated from vineyards and wine cellars, and from opportunistic human infections. Interestingly, sub-telomeric instability was associated with the clinical phenotype, while Ty element insertion regions determined genomic differences of natural wine fermentation strains. Copy number depletion of ASP3 and YRF1 genes was found in all wild-type strains. Other gene families involved in transmembrane transport, sugar and alcohol metabolism or drug resistance had copy number changes, which also distinguished wine from clinical isolates. Conclusion We have isolated and genotyped more than 1000 yeast strains from natural environments and carried out an aCGH analysis of 16 strains representative of distinct genotype clusters. Important genomic variability was identified between these strains, in particular in sub-telomeric regions and in Ty-element insertion sites, suggesting that this type of genome variability is the main source of genetic diversity in natural populations of yeast. The data highlights the usefulness of yeast as a model system to unravel intraspecific natural genome diversity and to elucidate how natural selection shapes the yeast genome. PMID:18983662

Large-scale assessment of soil erosion in Africa: satellites help to jointly account for dynamic rainfall and vegetation cover

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vrieling, Anton; Hoedjes, Joost C. B.; van der Velde, Marijn

2015-04-01

Efforts to map and monitor soil erosion need to account for the erratic nature of the soil erosion process. Soil erosion by water occurs on sloped terrain when erosive rainfall and consequent surface runoff impact soils that are not well-protected by vegetation or other soil protective measures. Both rainfall erosivity and vegetation cover are highly variable through space and time. Due to data paucity and the relative ease of spatially overlaying geographical data layers into existing models like USLE (Universal Soil Loss Equation), many studies and mapping efforts merely use average annual values for erosivity and vegetation cover as input. We first show that rainfall erosivity can be estimated from satellite precipitation data. We obtained average annual erosivity estimates from 15 yr of 3-hourly TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) data (1998-2012) using intensity-erosivity relationships. Our estimates showed a positive correlation (r = 0.84) with long-term annual erosivity values of 37 stations obtained from literature. Using these TMPA erosivity retrievals, we demonstrate the large interannual variability, with maximum annual erosivity often exceeding two to three times the mean value, especially in semi-arid areas. We then calculate erosivity at a 10-daily time-step and combine this with vegetation cover development for selected locations in Africa using NDVI - normalized difference vegetation index - time series from SPOT VEGETATION. Although we do not integrate the data at this point, the joint analysis of both variables stresses the need for joint accounting for erosivity and vegetation cover for large-scale erosion assessment and monitoring.

Predictors of sickness absence in college and university educated self-employed: a historic register study

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Despite a large proportion of the workforce being self-employed, few studies have been conducted on risk factors for sickness absence in this population. The aim of this study is to identify risk factors for future sickness absence in a population of college and university educated self-employed. Methods In a historic register study based on insurance company files risk factors were identified by means of logistic regression analysis. Data collected at application for private disability insurance from 634 applicants were related to subsequent sickness absence periods of 30 days or more during a follow-up period of 7.95 years. Variables studied were self-reported lifestyle variables, variables concerning medical history and present health conditions and variables derived from the general medical examination including blood tests and urinary analysis. Results Results from analysis of data from 634 applicants for private disability insurance show that previous periods of sickness absence (OR 2.07), female gender (OR 2.04), health complaints listed in the health declaration (OR 1.88), elevated erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) (OR 4.05) and the nature of the profession were related to a higher risk of sickness absence. Conclusions Sickness absence was found to be related to demographic variables (gender, profession), medical variables (health complaints and erythrocyte sedimentation rate) and to variables with both a medical and a behavioural component (previous sickness absence). PMID:24886527

CADDIS Volume 4. Data Analysis: Advanced Analyses - Controlling for Natural Variability

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Methods for controlling natural variability, predicting environmental conditions from biological observations method, biological trait data, species sensitivity distributions, propensity scores, Advanced Analyses of Data Analysis references.

Urban soils as hotspots of anthropogenic carbon accumulation: Review of stocks, mechanisms and factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vasenev, Viacheslav; Kuzyakov, Yakov

2017-04-01

Urban soils and cultural layers accumulate carbon (C) over centuries and consequently large C stocks are sequestered below the cities. These C stocks as well as the full range of processes and mechanisms leading to high C accumulation in urban soils remain unknown. We collected data on organic (SOC), inorganic (SOC) and black (pyrogenic) (BC) C content in urban and natural soils from 100 papers based on Scopus and Web-of-Knowledge databases. The yielded database includes 770 values on SOC, SIC and BC stocks from 118 cities worldwide. The collected data were analyzed considering the effects of climatic conditions and urban-specific factors: city size, age and functional zoning. For the whole range of climatic conditions, the C contents in urban soils were 1.5-3 times higher than in respective natural soils. This higher C content and much deeper C accumulation in urban soils resulted in 3 to 5 times higher C stocks compared to natural soils. Urban SOC stocks were positively correlated with latitude, whereas SIC stocks were less affected by climate. The city size and age were the main factors controlling intra-city variability of C stocks with higher stocks in small cities compared to megapolises and in medieval compared to new cities. The inter-city variability of C stocks was dominated by functional zoning: large SOC and N stocks in residential areas and large SIC and BC stocks in industrial zones and roadsides were similar for all climates and for cities of different size and age. Substantial stocks of SOC, SIC and N were sequestered for long-term in the subsoils and cultural layers of the sealed soils, which underline the importance of these 'hidden' stocks for C assessments. Typical and specific for urban soils is that the anthropogenic factor overshadows the other five factors of soil formation. Substantial C stocks in urban soils and cultural layers result from specific mechanisms of C accumulation in cities: i) large and long-term C inputs from outside the city (e.g. suburban, agricultural and forest areas), and ii) C accumulation in parallel with upward soil growing without complete mineralization (common in natural soils). These mechanisms result over long period in gradual growing-up of urban soils and C accumulation. The average rate of urban soils' uprising growth of 50 cm per century and the average SOC contents of 3-5% led conclude that urban soils accumulate 15-30 kg C m-2 per century without steady state (common for all natural soils). These factors lead to high potential of urban soils for long-term C sequestration. We conclude that despite small area under the cities, urban soils are hotspots of belowground long-term C sequestration worldwide and the importance of urban soils will increase in future with global urbanization.

Comparison of Bioclimatic, NDVI and Elevation variables in assessing extent of Commiphora wightii (Arnt.) Bhand.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kulloli, R. N.; Kumar, S.

2014-11-01

Commiphora wightii (Arnt.) Bhand., is an important medicinal plant of Indian Medicine System (IMS) since ancient time. It is used in different ailments of obesity, arthritis, rheumatism and high cholesterol. Due to overexploitation its natural populations declined to large extent. IUCN has put it under Data Deficient (DD) category due to lack of data on its extent of occurrence in nature. Hence, the study was carried out using MaxEnt distribution modelling algorithm to estimate its geographic distribution and to identify potential habitats for its reintroduction. For modelling employed 68 presence locality data, 19 bioclimatic variables, Normalize Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and elevation data. These were tested for multicollinearity and those variables having r-value less than 0.8 were selected for further analysis, which was carried out in two ways i) Bioclimatic variables and elevation; ii) NDVI and elevation. Area Under the Curve (AUC) in both analysis was above 0.9 for all variables, indicating very high accuracy of prediction. Variables governing distribution of C. wightii in the analysis using bioclimatic and elevation data set are precipitation seasonality (56.6 %), annual precipitation (16.4 %) and elevation (14.7 %). Extent of occurrence of C.wightii predicted by model closely matched in the districts of Jaisalmer and Barmer. In the second analysis elevation (48.3 %), NDVI of June (11.1 %) and August (11.2 %) contributed for NDVI and Elevation data set. NDVI of June corresponds to its leafing phase while NDVI of August to flowering phase. Area of its occurrence predicted for NDVI and elevation data set are Bikaner, Churu, Jhunjhunun some part of Jodhpur which are completely sandy, where C. wightii is totally absent. Extent of occurrence was also validated in ground survey. Potential areas for its reintroduction were identified as Jaisalmer and Barmer districts in Indian arid zone.

Multi-muscle synergies in an unusual postural task: quick shear force production.

PubMed

Robert, Thomas; Zatsiorsky, Vladimir M; Latash, Mark L

2008-05-01

We considered a hypothetical two-level hierarchy participating in the control of vertical posture. The framework of the uncontrolled manifold (UCM) hypothesis was used to explore the muscle groupings (M-modes) and multi-M-mode synergies involved in the stabilization of a time profile of the shear force in the anterior-posterior direction. Standing subjects were asked to produce pulses of shear force into a target using visual feedback while trying to minimize the shift of the center of pressure (COP). Principal component analysis applied to integrated muscle activation indices identified three M-modes. The composition of the M-modes was similar across subjects and the two directions of the shear force pulse. It differed from the composition of M-modes described in earlier studies of more natural actions associated with large COP shifts. Further, the trial-to-trial M-mode variance was partitioned into two components: one component that does not affect a particular performance variable (V(UCM)), and its orthogonal component (V(ORT)). We argued that there is a multi-M-mode synergy stabilizing this particular performance variable if V(UCM) is higher than V(ORT). Overall, we found a multi-M-mode synergy stabilizing both shear force and COP coordinate. For the shear force, this synergy was strong for the backward force pulses and nonsignificant for the forward pulses. An opposite result was found for the COP coordinate: the synergy was stronger for the forward force pulses. The study shows that M-mode composition can change in a task-specific way and that two different performance variables can be stabilized using the same set of elemental variables (M-modes). The different dependences of the ΔV indices for the shear force and COP coordinate on the force pulse direction supports applicability of the principle of superposition (separate controllers for different performance variables) to the control of different mechanical variables in postural tasks. The M-mode composition allows a natural mechanical interpretation.

A Tropical View of Atlantic Multidecadal SST Variability over the Last Two Millennia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wurtzel, J. B.; Black, D. E.; Thunell, R.; Peterson, L. C.; Tappa, E. J.; Rahman, S.

2011-12-01

Instrumental and proxy-reconstructions show the existence of a 60-80 year periodicity in Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST), known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The AMO is correlated with circum-tropical Atlantic climate phenomena such as Sahel and Nordeste rainfall, as well as Atlantic hurricane patterns. Though it has been suggested that the AMO is controlled by thermohaline circulation, much debate exists as to whether the SST fluctuations are a result of anthropogenic forcing or natural climate variability. Our ability to address this issue has been limited by instrumental SST records that rarely extend back more than 50-100 years and proxy reconstructions that are largely terrestrial-based. Here we present a high-resolution marine sediment-derived reconstruction of seasonal tropical Atlantic SSTs from the Cariaco Basin spanning the past two millennia that is correlated with instrumental SSTs and the AMO for the period of overlap. The full record demonstrates that seasonality is largely controlled by variations in winter/spring SST. Wavelet analysis of the proxy data suggest that variability in the 60-80 year band evolved 250 years ago, while 40-60 year periodicities dominate earlier parts of the record. At least over the last millennia, multidecadal- and centennial- scale SST variability in the tropical Atlantic appears related to Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) fluctuations and its associated northward heat transport that in turn may be driven by solar variability. An inverse correlation between the tropical proxy annual average SST record and Δ14C indicates that the tropics experienced positive SST anomalies during times of reduced solar activity, possibly as a result of decreased AMOC strength (Figure 1).

Wind-driven variations in an overturning circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bringedal, Carina; Eldevik, Tor; Spall, Michael

2017-04-01

The Atlantic overturning circulation and poleward heat transport is balanced by northern heat loss to the atmosphere and corresponding water mass transformation. The structure of this circulation and transformation is particularly manifested - and observed - at the Greenland-Scotland ridge. There is however a rich variability in the exchanges across the ridge on seasonal and yearly time scales. This variability has been almost perfectly captured in atmospherically forced ocean GCMs (e.g. Olsen et al 2008, Sandø et al 2012), suggesting that on shorter time scales the variability of the exchanges are connected to sea level pressure and corresponding wind stress forcing. Focusing on seasonal and yearly time scales, we accordingly propose that the connection between the exchanges of overturning waters across the Greenland-Scotland ridge and the sea level pressure must be direct and simple, and we use idealized simulations to support this hypothesis. The mechanisms underlying the connection are formulated through conceptual models. Although the models and simulations are simplified with respect to bathymetry and hydrography, they can reproduce the main features of the overturning circulation in the Nordic seas. In the observations, the variable exchanges can largely be related to sea level pressure variations and large scale wind patterns, and the idealized simulations and accompanying conceptual models show how these impacts can manifest via coastal downwelling and gyre circulation. S. M. Olsen, B. Hansen, D. Quadfasel and S. Østerhus, Observed and modelled stability of overflow across the Greenland-Scotland ridge, Nature 455, (2008) A. B. Sandø, J. E. Ø. Nilsen, T. Eldevik and M. Bentsen, Mechanisms for variable North Atlantic-Nordic seas exchanges, Journal of Geophysical Research 117, (2012)

Solar Energetic Particles -- A Radiation Hazard to Humans and Hardware in Space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mewaldt, R. A.

2006-10-01

During large solar energetic particle (SEP) events the intensity of >30 MeV protons in nearby interplanetary space can increase by a million times over the steady intensity of galactic cosmic rays, creating a radiation hazard to both humans and hardware in space. With NASA now committed to sending astronauts to the Moon and possibly on to Mars, outside the protective cover of the Earth's magnetosphere, interest in understanding and forecasting large SEP events has taken on a new sense of urgency. The past solar maximum included four of the top ten SEP events of the space era. Fortunately, the array of spacecraft now in interplanetary space has provided greatly improved measurements of the composition and energy spectra of accelerated ions, leading to fresh insights into the nature of these events. The largest SEP events are accelerated by coronal and interplanetary shocks driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs) traveling at >2000 km/sec. Although shock acceleration is ubiquitous in nature, its efficiency is highly variable, making it difficult to forecast the onset and evolution of large SEP events. This talk will describe the radiation hazards associated with the largest SEP events, discuss their frequency of occurrence, consider a worst-case SEP event, and describe how the radiation risks can be mitigated.

Decadal changes in the frequency of major floods in near-natural catchments across North America and Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Hannaford, Jamie; Whitfield, Paul H.; Burn, Donald H.; Fleig, Anne; Stahl, Kerstin; Renard, Benjamin; Korhonen, Johanna; Murphy, Conor; Crochet, Philippe; Wilson, Donna; Madsen, Henrik

2013-04-01

Recent major floods in North America and Europe have received much press, with some concluding that these floods are more frequent in recent years as a result of anthropogenic warming. There has therefore been considerable scientific effort invested in establishing whether observed flood records show evidence of trends or variability in flood frequency, and to determine whether these patterns can be linked to climatic changes. However, the river catchments used in many published studies are influenced by direct human alteration such as reservoir regulation and urbanisation, which can confound the interpretation of climate-driven variability. Furthermore, a majority of previous studies have analysed changes in low magnitude floods, such as the annual peak flow, at a national scale. Few studies are known that have analysed changes in large floods (greater than 25-year floods) on a continental scale. To fill this research gap, the current study is analysing flood flows from reference hydrologic networks (RHNs) or RHN-like gauges across a large study domain embracing North America and much of Europe. RHNs comprise gauging stations with minimally disturbed catchment conditions, which have a near-natural flow regime and provide good quality data; RHN analyses thus allow hydro-climatic variability to be distinguished from direct artificial disturbances or data inhomogeneities. One of the key innovations in this study is the definition of an RHN-like network on a continental scale. The network incorporates existing, well-established RHNs in Canada, the US, the UK, Ireland and Norway, alongside RHN-like catchments from Europe (France, Switzerland, Iceland, Denmark, Sweden, Finland), which have been incorporated in the network following a major effort to ensure RHN-like status of candidate gauges through consultation with local experts. As the aim of the study is to examine long-term variability in the number of major floods, annual exceedances of 25-, 50-, and 100-year floods during the last 40-100 years are estimated for all study gauges across North America and Europe. These are then pooled, and regional and continental flood frequency time series computed, including separate groups for different types of hydrological regime (pluvial, nival, mixed etc). Preliminary results will be presented, focusing on whether there is evidence for interdecadal variability in the occurrence of flooding at the large scale in Europe and North America. The unique intercontinental dataset is an example of successful international collaboration on hydro-climatic data exchange, which is potentially a step towards establishing RHN-like networks on a global scale. Such networks will make a valuable contribution to the understanding of hydrological change in future.

Capturing subregional variability in regional-scale climate change vulnerability assessments of natural resources

Treesearch

Polly C. Buotte; David L. Peterson; Kevin S. McKelvey; Jeffrey A. Hicke

2016-01-01

Natural resource vulnerability to climate change can depend on the climatology and ecological conditions at a particular site. Here we present a conceptual framework for incorporating spatial variability in natural resource vulnerability to climate change in a regional-scale assessment. The framework was implemented in the first regional-scale vulnerability...

Variation in flow and suspended sediment transport in a montane river affected by hydropeaking and instream mining

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Béjar, M.; Vericat, D.; Batalla, R. J.; Gibbins, C. N.

2018-06-01

The temporal and spatial variability of water and sediment loads of rivers is controlled by a suite of factors whose individual effects are often difficult to disentangle. While land use changes and localised human activities such as instream mining and hydropeaking alter water and sediment transfer, tributaries naturally contribute to discharge and sediment load of mainstem rivers, and so may help compensate upstream anthropogenic factors. The work presented here aimed to assess water and the sediment transfer in a river reach affected by gravel extraction and hydropeaking, set against a backdrop of changes to the supply of water and sediment from tributaries. Discharge and suspended sediment transport were monitored during two average hydrological years at three cross-sections along a 10-km reach of the upper River Cinca, in the Southern Pyrenees. Water and sediment loads differed substantially between the reaches. The upper reach showed a largely torrential discharge regime, controlled mainly by floods, and had high but variable water and sediment loads. The middle reach was influenced markedly by hydropeaking and tributary inflows, which increased its annual water yield four-fold. Suspended sediment load in this reach increased by only 25% compared to upstream, indicating that dilution predominated. In the lowermost section, while discharge remained largely unaltered, sediment load increased appreciably as a result of changes to sediment availability from instream mining and inputs from tributaries. At the reach scale, snowmelt and summer and autumn thunderstorms were responsible for most of the water yield, while flood flows determined the magnitude and transport of the sediment load. The study highlights that a combination of natural and human factors control the spatial and temporal transfer of water and sediment in river channels and that, depending on their geographic location and effect-size, can result in marked variability even over short downstream distances.

Benthic metabolic feedbacks to carbonate chemistry on coral reefs:implications for ocean acidification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Price, N.; Rohwer, F. L.; Stuart, S. A.; Andersson, A.; Smith, J.

2012-12-01

The metabolic activity of resident organisms can cause spatio-temporal variability in carbonate chemistry within the benthic boundary layer, and thus potentially buffer the global impacts of ocean acidification. But, little is known about the capacity for particular species assemblages to contribute to natural daily variability in carbonate chemistry. We encapsulated replicate areas (~3m2) of reef across six Northern Line Islands in the central Pacific for 24 hrs to quantify feedbacks to carbonate chemistry within the benthic boundary layer from community metabolism. Underneath each 'tent', we quantified relative abundance and biomass of each species of corals and algae. We coupled high temporal resolution time series data on the natural diurnal variability in pH, dissolved oxygen, salinity, and temperature (using autonomous sensors) with resident organisms' net community calcification and productivity rates (using change in total dissolved carbon and total alkalinity over time) to examine feedbacks from reef metabolism to boundary layer carbonate chemistry. These reefs experienced large ranges in pH (> 0.2 amplitude) each day, similar to the magnitude of 'acidification' expected over the next century. Daily benthic pH, pCO2, and aragonite saturation state (Ωaragonite) were contrasted with seasonal threshold values estimated from open ocean climatological data extrapolated at each island to determine relative inter-island feedbacks. Diurnal amplitude in pH, pCO2, and Ωaragonite at each island was dependent upon the resident species assemblage of the benthos and was particularly reliant upon the biomass, productivity, and calcification rate of Halimeda. Net primary productivity of fleshy algae (algal turfs and Lobophora spp.) predominated on degraded, inhabited islands where net community calcification was negligible. In contrast, the chemistry over reefs on 'pristine', uninhabited islands was driven largely by net calcification of calcareous algae and stony corals. Knowledge about species specific physiological rates and relative abundances of key taxa whose metabolism significantly alters carbonate chemistry may give insight to the ability for a reef to buffer against or exacerbate ocean acidification.

Advancing understanding in the face of data limitations and difficult conditions: Estimating storage contributions to streamflow in Tanzania's rapidly developing Kilombero Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyon, S. W.; Koutsouris, A. J.

2016-12-01

Robust natural variability and experimental design may help to overcome the data limitations and difficult conditions that typify much of the global south. This, in turn, can facilitate the application of advanced techniques to help inform management with science (which is sorely needed for guiding development). As an example on this concept, we used a limited amount of weekly water chemistry as well as stable water isotope data to perform end-member mixing analysis in a glue frame work (G-EMMA) in one main catchment and two sub-catchments of Kilombero Valley, Tanzania. How water interacts across the various storages in this region, which has been targeted for rapid agricultural intensification and expansion, is still largely unknown making estimation of potential impacts (not to mention sustainability) associated with various development scenarios difficult. Our results showed that there were, as would be expected, considerable uncertainties related to the characterization of end-members in this remote system. Regardless, some robust estimates could be made on contributions to seasonal streamflow variability. For example, it appears that there is a low connectivity between the deep groundwater and the stream system throughout the year. Also, there is a considerable wetting up period required before overland flow occurs. We demonstrate that the apparent miss-match between state-of-the-science techniques and data limitations (not to mention the issues associated with difficult working environments) can be bridged by leveraging experimental design and natural system variability. This is promising as we seek to advance our science in more and more remote (and in particular developing) regions to allow for important improvements for management of less and less available resources. Thus, in spite of large uncertainties this work highlights how research may still provide an improved system understanding of hydrological flows even when working under less than perfect conditions.

Air emissions due to wind and solar power.

PubMed

Katzenstein, Warren; Apt, Jay

2009-01-15

Renewables portfolio standards (RPS) encourage large-scale deployment of wind and solar electric power. Their power output varies rapidly, even when several sites are added together. In many locations, natural gas generators are the lowest cost resource available to compensate for this variability, and must ramp up and down quickly to keep the grid stable, affecting their emissions of NOx and CO2. We model a wind or solar photovoltaic plus gas system using measured 1-min time-resolved emissions and heat rate data from two types of natural gas generators, and power data from four wind plants and one solar plant. Over a wide range of renewable penetration, we find CO2 emissions achieve approximately 80% of the emissions reductions expected if the power fluctuations caused no additional emissions. Using steam injection, gas generators achieve only 30-50% of expected NOx emissions reductions, and with dry control NOx emissions increase substantially. We quantify the interaction between state RPSs and NOx constraints, finding that states with substantial RPSs could see significant upward pressure on NOx permit prices, if the gas turbines we modeled are representative of the plants used to mitigate wind and solar power variability.

Genetic signatures of natural selection in a model invasive ascidian

PubMed Central

Lin, Yaping; Chen, Yiyong; Yi, Changho; Fong, Jonathan J.; Kim, Won; Rius, Marc; Zhan, Aibin

2017-01-01

Invasive species represent promising models to study species’ responses to rapidly changing environments. Although local adaptation frequently occurs during contemporary range expansion, the associated genetic signatures at both population and genomic levels remain largely unknown. Here, we use genome-wide gene-associated microsatellites to investigate genetic signatures of natural selection in a model invasive ascidian, Ciona robusta. Population genetic analyses of 150 individuals sampled in Korea, New Zealand, South Africa and Spain showed significant genetic differentiation among populations. Based on outlier tests, we found high incidence of signatures of directional selection at 19 loci. Hitchhiking mapping analyses identified 12 directional selective sweep regions, and all selective sweep windows on chromosomes were narrow (~8.9 kb). Further analyses indentified 132 candidate genes under selection. When we compared our genetic data and six crucial environmental variables, 16 putatively selected loci showed significant correlation with these environmental variables. This suggests that the local environmental conditions have left significant signatures of selection at both population and genomic levels. Finally, we identified “plastic” genomic regions and genes that are promising regions to investigate evolutionary responses to rapid environmental change in C. robusta. PMID:28266616

On the possible relations between solar activities and global seismicity in the solar cycle 20 to 23

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herdiwijaya, Dhani; Arif, Johan; Nurzaman, Muhamad Zamzam; Astuti, Isna Kusuma Dewi

2015-09-01

Solar activities consist of high energetic particle streams, electromagnetic radiation, magnetic and orbital gravitational forces. The well-know solar activity main indicator is the existence of sunspot which has mean variation in 11 years, named by solar cycle, allow for the above fluctuations. Solar activities are also related to the space weather affecting all planetary atmospheric variability, moreover to the Earth's climate variability. Large extreme space and geophysical events (high magnitude earthquakes, explosive volcanic eruptions, magnetic storms, etc.) are hazards for humankind, infrastructure, economies, technology and the activities of civilization. With a growing world population, and with modern reliance on delicate technological systems, human society is becoming increasingly vulnerable to natural hazardous events. The big question arises to the relation between solar forcing energy to the Earth's global seismic activities. Estimates are needed for the long term occurrence-rate probabilities of these extreme natural hazardous events. We studied connectivity from yearly seismic activities that refer to and sunspot number within the solar cycle 20 to 23 of year 1960 to 2013 (53 years). We found clear evidences that in general high magnitude earthquake events and their depth were related to the low solar activity.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Herdiwijaya, Dhani, E-mail: dhani@as.itb.ac.id; Arif, Johan; Nurzaman, Muhamad Zamzam

Solar activities consist of high energetic particle streams, electromagnetic radiation, magnetic and orbital gravitational forces. The well-know solar activity main indicator is the existence of sunspot which has mean variation in 11 years, named by solar cycle, allow for the above fluctuations. Solar activities are also related to the space weather affecting all planetary atmospheric variability, moreover to the Earth’s climate variability. Large extreme space and geophysical events (high magnitude earthquakes, explosive volcanic eruptions, magnetic storms, etc.) are hazards for humankind, infrastructure, economies, technology and the activities of civilization. With a growing world population, and with modern reliance on delicatemore » technological systems, human society is becoming increasingly vulnerable to natural hazardous events. The big question arises to the relation between solar forcing energy to the Earth’s global seismic activities. Estimates are needed for the long term occurrence-rate probabilities of these extreme natural hazardous events. We studied connectivity from yearly seismic activities that refer to and sunspot number within the solar cycle 20 to 23 of year 1960 to 2013 (53 years). We found clear evidences that in general high magnitude earthquake events and their depth were related to the low solar activity.« less

High taxonomic variability despite stable functional structure across microbial communities.

PubMed

Louca, Stilianos; Jacques, Saulo M S; Pires, Aliny P F; Leal, Juliana S; Srivastava, Diane S; Parfrey, Laura Wegener; Farjalla, Vinicius F; Doebeli, Michael

2016-12-05

Understanding the processes that are driving variation of natural microbial communities across space or time is a major challenge for ecologists. Environmental conditions strongly shape the metabolic function of microbial communities; however, other processes such as biotic interactions, random demographic drift or dispersal limitation may also influence community dynamics. The relative importance of these processes and their effects on community function remain largely unknown. To address this uncertainty, here we examined bacterial and archaeal communities in replicate 'miniature' aquatic ecosystems contained within the foliage of wild bromeliads. We used marker gene sequencing to infer the taxonomic composition within nine metabolic functional groups, and shotgun environmental DNA sequencing to estimate the relative abundances of these groups. We found that all of the bromeliads exhibited remarkably similar functional community structures, but that the taxonomic composition within individual functional groups was highly variable. Furthermore, using statistical analyses, we found that non-neutral processes, including environmental filtering and potentially biotic interactions, at least partly shaped the composition within functional groups and were more important than spatial dispersal limitation and demographic drift. Hence both the functional structure and taxonomic composition within functional groups of natural microbial communities may be shaped by non-neutral and roughly separate processes.

Hazard perception and the economic impact of internment on residential land values

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Merz, J.F.

1983-04-01

The potential for large scale natural and man-made hazards exists in the form of hurricanes, earthquakes, volcanoes, floods, dams, accidents involving poisonous, explosive or radioactive materials, and severe pollution or waste disposal mishaps. Regions prone to natural hazards and areas located proximally to technological hazards may be subject to economic losses from low probability-high consequence events. Economic costs may be incurred in: evacuation and relocation of inhabitants; personal, industrial, agricultural, and tax revenue losses; decontamination; property damage or loss of value; and temporary or prolonged internment of land. The value of land in an area subjected to a low probability-highmore » consequence event may decrease, reflecting, a fortiori, a reluctance to continue living in the area or to repopulate a region which had required internment. The future value of such land may be described as a function of location, time, interdiction period (if applicable), and variables reflecting the magnitude of the perceived hazard. This paper presents a study of these variables and proposes a model for land value estimation. As an example, the application of the model to the Love Canal area in Niagara Falls, New York is presented.« less

CADDIS Volume 4. Data Analysis: Advanced Analyses - Controlling for Natural Variability: SSD Plot Diagrams

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Methods for controlling natural variability, predicting environmental conditions from biological observations method, biological trait data, species sensitivity distributions, propensity scores, Advanced Analyses of Data Analysis references.

Effects of quench rate and natural ageing on the age hardening behaviour of aluminium alloy AA6060

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Strobel, Katharina, E-mail: katharina.strobel@aol.com; Lay, Matthew D.H., E-mail: mlay@fbrice.com; Easton, Mark A., E-mail: mark.easton@rmit.edu.au

Quench sensitivity in Al–Mg–Si alloys has been largely attributed to the solute loss at the heterogeneous nucleation sites, primarily dispersoids, during slow cooling after extrusion. As such, the number density of dispersoids, the solute type and concentration are considered to be the key variables for the quench sensitivity. In this study, quench sensitivity and the influence of natural ageing in a lean Al–Mg–Si alloy, AA6060, which contains few dispersoids, have been investigated by hardness measurement, thermal analysis, transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and positron annihilation lifetime spectroscopy (PALS). It is shown that the quench sensitivity in this alloy is associated withmore » the degree of supersaturation of vacancies after cooling. Due to vacancy annihilation and clustering during natural ageing, the quench sensitivity is more pronounced after a short natural ageing time (30 min) compared to a longer natural ageing time (24 h). Therefore, prolonged natural ageing not only leads to an increase in hardness, but can also have a positive effect on the quench sensitivity of lean Al–Mg–Si alloys. - Highlights: • Significant quench sensitivity observed in AA6060 alloy after 30 min natural ageing • Prolonged natural ageing increased hardness and reduced QS. • Low dispersoid density leads to insignificant QS from non-hardening precipitates. • Vacancy supersaturation identified as a contributor to QS.« less

Constraints on Variability of Brightness and Surface Magnetism on Time Scales of Decades to Centuries in the Sun and Sun-Like Stars: A Source of Potential Terrestrial Climate Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baliunas, Sallie L.; Sharber, James (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

These four points summarize our work to date. (1) Conciliation of solar and stellar photometric variability. Previous research by us and colleagues suggested that the Sun might at present be showing unusually low photometric variability compared to other sun-like stars. Those early results would question the suitability of the technique of using sun-like stars as proxies for solar irradiance change on time scales of decades to centuries. However, our results indicate the contrary: the Sun's observed short-term (seasonal) and longterm (year-to-year) brightness variations closely agree with observed brightness variations in stars of similar mass and age. (2) We have demonstrated an inverse correlation between the global temperature of the terrestrial lower troposphere, inferred from the NASA Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) radiometers, and the total area of the Sun covered by coronal holes from January 1979 to present (up to May 2000). Variable fluxes of either solar charged particles or cosmic rays, or both, may influence the terrestrial tropospheric temperature. The geographical pattern of the correlation is consistent with our interpretation of an extra-terrestrial charged particle forcing. (3) Possible climate mechanism amplifying the impact of solar ultraviolet irradiance variations. The key points of our proposed climate hypersensitivity mechanism are: (a) The Sun is more variable in the UV (ultraviolet) than in the visible. However, the increased UV irradiance is mainly absorbed in the lower stratosphere/upper troposphere rather than at the surface. (b) Absorption in the stratosphere raises the temperature moderately around the vicinity of the tropopause, and tends to stabilize the atmosphere against vertical convective/diffusive transport, thus decreasing the flux of heat and moisture carried upward from surface. (c) The decrease in the upward convection of heat and moisture tends to raise the surface temperature because a drier upper atmosphere becomes less cloudy, which in turn allows more solar radiation to reach the Earth's surface. (4) Natural variability in an ocean-atmosphere climate model. We use a 14-region, 6-layer, global thermo-hydrodynamic ocean-atmosphere model to study natural climate variability. All the numerical experiments were performed with no change in the prescribed external boundary conditions (except for the seasonal cycle of the Sun's tilt angle). Therefore, the observed inter-annual variability is of an internal kind. The model results are helpful toward the understanding of the role of nonlinearity in climate change. We have demonstrated a range of possible climate behaviors using our newly developed ocean-atmosphere model. These include climate configurations with no interannual variability, with multi-year periodicities, with continuous chaos, or with chaotically occuring transitions between two discrete substrates. These possible modes of climate behavior are all possible for the real climate, as well as the model. We have shown that small temporary climate influences can trigger shifts both in the mean climate, and among these different types of behavior. Such shifts are not only theoretically plausible, as shown here and elsewhere; they are omnipresent in the climate record on time scales from several years to the age of the Earth. This has two apparently opposite implications for the possibility of anthropogenic global warming. First, any warming which might occur as a result of human influence would be only a fraction of the small-to-large unpredictable natural changes and changes which result from other external causes. On the other hand, small temporary influences such as human influence do have the potential of causing large permanent shifts in mean climate and interannual variability.

Gamma-Ray Background Variability in Mobile Detectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aucott, Timothy John

Gamma-ray background radiation significantly reduces detection sensitivity when searching for radioactive sources in the field, such as in wide-area searches for homeland security applications. Mobile detector systems in particular must contend with a variable background that is not necessarily known or even measurable a priori. This work will present measurements of the spatial and temporal variability of the background, with the goal of merging gamma-ray detection, spectroscopy, and imaging with contextual information--a "nuclear street view" of the ubiquitous background radiation. The gamma-ray background originates from a variety of sources, both natural and anthropogenic. The dominant sources in the field are the primordial isotopes potassium-40, uranium-238, and thorium-232, as well as their decay daughters. In addition to the natural background, many artificially-created isotopes are used for industrial or medical purposes, and contamination from fission products can be found in many environments. Regardless of origin, these backgrounds will reduce detection sensitivity by adding both statistical as well as systematic uncertainty. In particular, large detector arrays will be limited by the systematic uncertainty in the background and will suffer from a high rate of false alarms. The goal of this work is to provide a comprehensive characterization of the gamma-ray background and its variability in order to improve detection sensitivity and evaluate the performance of mobile detectors in the field. Large quantities of data are measured in order to study their performance at very low false alarm rates. Two different approaches, spectroscopy and imaging, are compared in a controlled study in the presence of this measured background. Furthermore, there is additional information that can be gained by correlating the gamma-ray data with contextual data streams (such as cameras and global positioning systems) in order to reduce the variability in the background. This is accomplished by making many hours of background measurements with a truck-mounted system, which utilizes high-purity germanium detectors for spectroscopy and sodium iodide detectors for coded aperture imaging. This system also utilizes various peripheral sensors, such as panoramic cameras, laser ranging systems, global positioning systems, and a weather station to provide context for the gamma-ray data. About three hundred hours of data were taken in the San Francisco Bay Area, covering a wide variety of environments that might be encountered in operational scenarios. These measurements were used in a source injection study to evaluate the sensitivity of different algorithms (imaging and spectroscopy) and hardware (sodium iodide and high-purity germanium detectors). These measurements confirm that background distributions in large, mobile detector systems are dominated by systematic, not statistical variations, and both spectroscopy and imaging were found to substantially reduce this variability. Spectroscopy performed better than the coded aperture for the given scintillator array (one square meter of sodium iodide) for a variety of sources and geometries. By modeling the statistical and systematic uncertainties of the background, the data can be sampled to simulate the performance of a detector array of arbitrary size and resolution. With a larger array or lower resolution detectors, however imaging was better able to compensate for background variability.

Near-infrared Variability of Obscured and Unobscured X-Ray-selected AGNs in the COSMOS Field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sánchez, P.; Lira, P.; Cartier, R.; Pérez, V.; Miranda, N.; Yovaniniz, C.; Arévalo, P.; Milvang-Jensen, B.; Fynbo, J.; Dunlop, J.; Coppi, P.; Marchesi, S.

2017-11-01

We present our statistical study of near-infrared (NIR) variability of X-ray-selected active galactic nuclei (AGNs) in the COSMOS field, using UltraVISTA data. This is the largest sample of AGN light curves in YJHKs bands, making it possible to have a global description of the nature of AGNs for a large range of redshifts and for different levels of obscuration. To characterize the variability properties of the sources, we computed the structure function. Our results show that there is an anticorrelation between the structure function A parameter (variability amplitude) and the wavelength of emission and a weak anticorrelation between A and the bolometric luminosity. We find that broad-line (BL) AGNs have a considerably larger fraction of variable sources than narrow-line (NL) AGNs and that they have different distributions of the A parameter. We find evidence that suggests that most of the low-luminosity variable NL sources correspond to BL AGNs, where the host galaxy could be damping the variability signal. For high-luminosity variable NL sources, we propose that they can be examples of “true type II” AGNs or BL AGNs with limited spectral coverage, which results in missing the BL emission. We also find that the fraction of variable sources classified as unobscured in the X-ray is smaller than the fraction of variable sources unobscured in the optical range. We present evidence that this is related to the differences in the origin of the obscuration in the optical and X-ray regimes.

Social and cultural sustainability: criteria, indicators, verifier variables for measurement and maps for visualization to support planning.

PubMed

Axelsson, Robert; Angelstam, Per; Degerman, Erik; Teitelbaum, Sara; Andersson, Kjell; Elbakidze, Marine; Drotz, Marcus K

2013-03-01

Policies on economic use of natural resources require considerations to social and cultural values. In order to make those concrete in a planning context, this paper aims to interpret social and cultural criteria, identify indicators, match these with verifier variables and visualize them on maps. Indicators were selected from a review of scholarly work and natural resource policies, and then matched with verifier variables available for Sweden's 290 municipalities. Maps of the spatial distribution of four social and four cultural verifier variables were then produced. Consideration of social and cultural values in the studied natural resource use sectors was limited. The spatial distribution of the verifier variables exhibited a general divide between northwest and south Sweden, and regional rural and urban areas. We conclude that it is possible to identify indicators and match them with verifier variables to support inclusion of social and cultural values in planning.

The Baltic Sea: Geophysical and geochemical properties of Holocene sediment sequences as indicators of past environmental variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lenz, Conny; Reinholdsson, Maja; Zillén, Lovisa; Conley, Daniel J.; Snowball, Ian

2010-05-01

The Baltic Sea has undergone large environmental changes since the retreat of the Weischselian Ice-sheet. In the Late Glacial Period and the early Holocene these changes were most likely caused by natural environmental changes (i.e. changes in the morphology and depths of the Baltic basin and the sills). In more recent time anthropogenic impacts have become more important as a possible and likely cause for changes. During the whole Holocene period climate variability played an important role. However, the relative importance between humans and nature is largely unknown. Here we present the results of a combined geophysical and geochemical study on selected sediment sequences from the Baltic Sea within the two BONUS (Baltic Organisations Network For Funding Science) funded projects HYPER (HYPoxia mitigation for Baltic Sea Ecosystem Restoration) and Baltic GAS (GAS storage and effects of climate change and eutrophication). The over-all aim of these projects is to understand large-scale Baltic Sea ecosystem responses to environmental, climate and anthropogenic forcing. During two Baltic Sea research cruises in 2009 long sediment cores from 8 different locations were recovered. We present preliminary results from one site (LL19) located in the north central Baltic Proper at 169 m water depth. The Littorina Sea sediment record (i.e. the last c. 8000 years) is characterised by alternating periods of homogenised sediments (indicative of oxic conditions) and laminated sediments (indicative of hypoxic/anoxic conditions). Mineral magnetic properties illustrate clear changes between laminated and non-laminated sections of the core. The concentration of ferrimagnetic minerals, as revealed by initial magnetic susceptibility (χ) and saturation isothermal remanent magnetization (SIRM) is variable. The laminated sections in particular show high concentrations and to reveal the origin of the ferrimagnetic signal additional magnetic properties were measured, specifically the acquisition of rotational remanent magnetization (RRM), frequency dependency of susceptibility (χfd) and magnetic loops. These data show that magnetic assemblage of the laminated sections is dominated by a single-domain magnetic grain size. The elemental composition was measured with a high resolution Itrax XRF-scanner throughout the core. In addition, biogenic silica (BSi) and total organic carbon (TOC) were determined. Distinct changes of elemental contents between the laminated and homogenous sections in the Littorina Sea sediments were identified. A combination of the physical and geochemical properties of the sediment sequences and the construction of geochronologies will provide information about past environmental variability to identify casual relationships to climate and human impact in the Baltic Sea.

Observing the Cosmic Microwave Background Polarization with Variable-delay Polarization Modulators for the Cosmology Large Angular Scale Surveyor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harrington, Kathleen; CLASS Collaboration

2018-01-01

The search for inflationary primordial gravitational waves and the optical depth to reionization, both through their imprint on the large angular scale correlations in the polarization of the cosmic microwave background (CMB), has created the need for high sensitivity measurements of polarization across large fractions of the sky at millimeter wavelengths. These measurements are subjected to instrumental and atmospheric 1/f noise, which has motivated the development of polarization modulators to facilitate the rejection of these large systematic effects.Variable-delay polarization modulators (VPMs) are used in the Cosmology Large Angular Scale Surveyor (CLASS) telescopes as the first element in the optical chain to rapidly modulate the incoming polarization. VPMs consist of a linearly polarizing wire grid in front of a moveable flat mirror; varying the distance between the grid and the mirror produces a changing phase shift between polarization states parallel and perpendicular to the grid which modulates Stokes U (linear polarization at 45°) and Stokes V (circular polarization). The reflective and scalable nature of the VPM enables its placement as the first optical element in a reflecting telescope. This simultaneously allows a lock-in style polarization measurement and the separation of sky polarization from any instrumental polarization farther along in the optical chain.The Q-Band CLASS VPM was the first VPM to begin observing the CMB full time in 2016. I will be presenting its design and characterization as well as demonstrating how modulating polarization significantly rejects atmospheric and instrumental long time scale noise.

Frequency of Behavior Witnessed and Conformity in an Everyday Social Context

PubMed Central

Claidière, Nicolas; Bowler, Mark; Brookes, Sarah; Brown, Rebecca; Whiten, Andrew

2014-01-01

Conformity is thought to be an important force in human evolution because it has the potential to stabilize cultural homogeneity within groups and cultural diversity between groups. However, the effects of such conformity on cultural and biological evolution will depend much on the particular way in which individuals are influenced by the frequency of alternative behavioral options they witness. In a previous study we found that in a natural situation people displayed a tendency to be ‘linear-conformist’. When visitors to a Zoo exhibit were invited to write or draw answers to questions on cards to win a small prize and we manipulated the proportion of text versus drawings on display, we found a strong and significant effect of the proportion of text displayed on the proportion of text in the answers, a conformist effect that was largely linear with a small non-linear component. However, although this overall effect is important to understand cultural evolution, it might mask a greater diversity of behavioral responses shaped by variables such as age, sex, social environment and attention of the participants. Accordingly we performed a further study explicitly to analyze the effects of these variables, together with the quality of the information participants' responses made available to further visitors. Results again showed a largely linear conformity effect that varied little with the variables analyzed. PMID:24950212

Toward brain correlates of natural behavior: fMRI during violent video games.

PubMed

Mathiak, Klaus; Weber, René

2006-12-01

Modern video games represent highly advanced virtual reality simulations and often contain virtual violence. In a significant amount of young males, playing video games is a quotidian activity, making it an almost natural behavior. Recordings of brain activation with functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) during gameplay may reflect neuronal correlates of real-life behavior. We recorded 13 experienced gamers (18-26 years; average 14 hrs/week playing) while playing a violent first-person shooter game (a violent computer game played in self-perspective) by means of distortion and dephasing reduced fMRI (3 T; single-shot triple-echo echo-planar imaging [EPI]). Content analysis of the video and sound with 100 ms time resolution achieved relevant behavioral variables. These variables explained significant signal variance across large distributed networks. Occurrence of violent scenes revealed significant neuronal correlates in an event-related design. Activation of dorsal and deactivation of rostral anterior cingulate and amygdala characterized the mid-frontal pattern related to virtual violence. Statistics and effect sizes can be considered large at these areas. Optimized imaging strategies allowed for single-subject and for single-trial analysis with good image quality at basal brain structures. We propose that virtual environments can be used to study neuronal processes involved in semi-naturalistic behavior as determined by content analysis. Importantly, the activation pattern reflects brain-environment interactions rather than stimulus responses as observed in classical experimental designs. We relate our findings to the general discussion on social effects of playing first-person shooter games. (c) 2006 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Understanding observed and simulated historical temperature trends in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonfils, C. J.; Duffy, P. B.; Santer, B. D.; Lobell, D. B.; Wigley, T. M.

2006-12-01

In our study, we attempt 1) to improve our understanding of observed historical temperature trends and their underlying causes in the context of regional detection of climate change and 2) to identify possible neglected forcings and errors in the model response to imposed forcings at the origin of inconsistencies between models and observations. From eight different observational datasets, we estimate California-average temperature trends over 1950- 1999 and compare them to trends from a suite of IPCC control simulations of natural internal climate variability. We find that the substantial night-time warming occurring from January to September is inconsistent with model-based estimates of natural internal climate variability, and thus requires one or more external forcing agents to be explained. In contrast, we find that a significant day-time warming occurs only from January to March. Our confidence in these findings is increased because there is no evidence that the models systematically underestimate noise on interannual and decadal timescales. However, we also find that IPCC simulations of the 20th century that include combined anthropogenic and natural forcings are not able to reproduce such a pronounced seasonality of the trends. Our first hypothesis is that the warming of Californian winters over the second half of the twentieth century is associated with changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation that are likely to be human-induced. This circulation change is underestimated in the historical simulations, which may explain why the simulated warming of Californian winters is too weak. We also hypothesize that the lack of a detectable observed increase in summertime maximum temperature arises from a cooling associated with large-scale irrigation. This cooling may have, until now, counteracted the warming induced by increasing greenhouse gases and urbanization effects. Omitting to include this forcing in the simulations can result in overestimating the summertime maximum temperature trends. We conduct an empirical study based on observed climate and irrigation changes to evaluate this assumption.

Functional macronutritional generalism in a large omnivore, the brown bear.

PubMed

Coogan, Sean C P; Raubenheimer, David; Stenhouse, Gordon B; Coops, Nicholas C; Nielsen, Scott E

2018-02-01

We combine a recently developed framework for describing dietary generalism with compositional data analysis to examine patterns of omnivory in a large widely distributed mammal. Using the brown bear ( Ursus arctos ) as a model species, we collected and analyzed data from the literature to estimate the proportions of macronutrients (protein, carbohydrate, and lipid) in the diets of bear populations. Across their range, bears consumed a diversity of foods that resulted in annual population diets that varied in macronutrient proportions, suggesting a wide fundamental macronutrient niche. The variance matrix of pairwise macronutrient log-ratios indicated that the most variable macronutrient among diets was carbohydrate, while protein and lipid were more proportional or codependent (i.e., relatively more constant log-ratios). Populations that consumed anthropogenic foods, such agricultural crops and supplementary feed (e.g., corn), had a higher geometric mean proportion of carbohydrate, and lower proportion of protein, in annual diets. Seasonally, mean diets were lower in protein and higher in carbohydrate, during autumn compared to spring. Populations with anthropogenic subsidies, however, had higher mean proportions of carbohydrate and lower protein, across seasons compared to populations with natural diets. Proportions of macronutrients similar to those selected in experiments by captive brown bears, and which optimized primarily fat mass gain, were observed among hyperphagic prehibernation autumn diets. However, the majority of these were from populations consuming anthropogenic foods, while diets of natural populations were more variable and typically higher in protein. Some anthropogenic diets were close to the proportions selected by captive bears during summer. Our results suggest that omnivory in brown bears is a functional adaptation enabling them to occupy a diverse range of habitats and tolerate variation in the nutritional composition and availability of food resources. Furthermore, we show that populations consuming human-sourced foods have different dietary macronutrient proportions relative to populations with natural diets.

GENETIC STRUCTURE OF NORWAY SPRUCE (PICEA ABIES): CONCORDANCE OF MORPHOLOGICAL AND ALLOZYMIC VARIATION.

PubMed

Lagercrantz, Ulf; Ryman, Nils

1990-02-01

This study describes the population structure of Norway spruce (Picea abies) as revealed by protein polymorphisms and morphological variation. Electrophoretically detectable genetic variability was examined at 22 protein loci in 70 populations from the natural range of the species in Europe. Like other conifers, Norway spruce exhibits a relatively large amount of genetic variability and little differentiation among populations. Sixteen polymorphic loci (73%) segregate for a total of 51 alleles, and average heterozygosity per population is 0.115. Approximately 5% of the total genetic diversity is explained by differences between populations (G ST = 0.052), and Nei's standard genetic distance is less than 0.04 in all cases. We suggest that the population structure largely reflects relatively recent historical events related to the last glaciation and that Norway spruce is still in a process of adaptation and differentiation. There is a clear geographic pattern in the variation of allele frequencies. A major part of the allelefrequency variation can be accounted for by a few synthetic variables (principal components), and 80% of the variation of the first principal component is "explained" by latitude and longitude. The central European populations are consistently depauperate of genetic variability, most likely as an effect of severe restrictions of population size during the last glaciation. The pattern of differentiation at protein loci is very similar to that observed for seven morphological traits examined. This similarity suggests that the same evolutionary forces have acted upon both sets of characters. © 1990 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Modeling silviculture after natural disturbance to sustain biodiversity in the longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) ecosystem : balancing complexity and implementation

Treesearch

Brian J. Palik; Robert J. Mitchell; J. Kevin Hiers

2002-01-01

Modeling silviculture after natural disturbance to maintain biodiversity is a popular concept, yet its application remains elusive. We discuss difficulties inherent to this idea, and suggest approaches to facilitate implementation, using longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) as an example. Natural disturbance regimes are spatially and temporally variable. Variability...

Wetland inventory and variability over the last two decades at a global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prigent, C.; Papa, F.; Aires, F.; Rossow, W. B.; Matthews, E.

2011-12-01

Remote sensing techniques employing visible, infrared, and microwave observations offer varying success in estimating wetlands and inundation extent and in monitoring their natural and anthropogenic variations. Low spatial resolution (e.g., 30 km) limits detection to large wetlands but has the advantage of frequent coverage. High spatial resolution (e.g., 100 m), while providing more environmental information, suffers from poor temporal resolution, with observations for just high/low water or warm/cold seasons. Most existing wetland data sets are limited to a few regions, for specific times in the year. The only global inventories of wetland dynamics over a long period of time is derived from a remote-sensing technique employing a suite of complementary satellite observations: it uses passive microwave land-surface microwave emissivities, scatterometer responses, and visible and near infrared reflectances. Combining observations from different instruments makes it possible to capitalize on their complementary strengths, and to extract maximum information about inundation characteristics. The technique is globally applicable without any tuning for particular environments. The satellite data are used to calculate monthly-mean inundated fractions of equal-area grid cells (0.25°x0.25° at the equator), taking into account the contribution of vegetation to the passive microwave signal (Prigent et al., 2001, 2007). Several adjustments to the initial technique have been applied to account for changes in satellite instruments (Papa et al., 2010). The resulting data set now covers 1993-2008 and has been carefully evaluated. We will present the inter-annual variability of the water surface extents under different environments, and relate these variations to other hydrological variables such as river height, precipitation, water runoff, or Grace data. Natural wetlands are the world's largest methane source and dominate the inter-annual variability of atmospheric methane concentrations, with up to 90% of the global methane flux anomalies related to variations in the wetland extent from some estimation. Our data set quantifying inundation dynamics throughout the world's natural wetlands provides a unique opportunity to reduce uncertainties in the role of natural wetlands in the inter-annual variability of the growth rate of atmospheric methane. Papa, F., C. Prigent, C. Jimenez, F. Aires, and W. B. Rossow, Interannual variability of surface water extent at global scale, 1993-2004, JGR, 115, D12111, doi:10.1029/2009JD012674, 2010. Prigent, C., F. Papa, F. Aires, W. B. Rossow, and E. Matthews, Global inundation dynamics inferred from multiple satellite observations, 1993-2000, JGR, 112, D12107, doi:10.1029/2006JD007847, 2007. Prigent, C., E. Matthews, F. Aires, and W. B. Rossow, Remote sensing of global wetland dynamics with multiple satellite data sets, GRL, 28 , 4631-4634, 2001.

A statistical model for Windstorm Variability over the British Isles based on Large-scale Atmospheric and Oceanic Mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirchner-Bossi, Nicolas; Befort, Daniel J.; Wild, Simon B.; Ulbrich, Uwe; Leckebusch, Gregor C.

2016-04-01

Time-clustered winter storms are responsible for a majority of the wind-induced losses in Europe. Over last years, different atmospheric and oceanic large-scale mechanisms as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) or the Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) have been proven to drive some significant portion of the windstorm variability over Europe. In this work we systematically investigate the influence of different large-scale natural variability modes: more than 20 indices related to those mechanisms with proven or potential influence on the windstorm frequency variability over Europe - mostly SST- or pressure-based - are derived by means of ECMWF ERA-20C reanalysis during the last century (1902-2009), and compared to the windstorm variability for the European winter (DJF). Windstorms are defined and tracked as in Leckebusch et al. (2008). The derived indices are then employed to develop a statistical procedure including a stepwise Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) and an Artificial Neural Network (ANN), aiming to hindcast the inter-annual (DJF) regional windstorm frequency variability in a case study for the British Isles. This case study reveals 13 indices with a statistically significant coupling with seasonal windstorm counts. The Scandinavian Pattern (SCA) showed the strongest correlation (0.61), followed by the NAO (0.48) and the Polar/Eurasia Pattern (0.46). The obtained indices (standard-normalised) are selected as predictors for a windstorm variability hindcast model applied for the British Isles. First, a stepwise linear regression is performed, to identify which mechanisms can explain windstorm variability best. Finally, the indices retained by the stepwise regression are used to develop a multlayer perceptron-based ANN that hindcasted seasonal windstorm frequency and clustering. Eight indices (SCA, NAO, EA, PDO, W.NAtl.SST, AMO (unsmoothed), EA/WR and Trop.N.Atl SST) are retained by the stepwise regression. Among them, SCA showed the highest linear coefficient, followed by SST in western Atlantic, AMO and NAO. The explanatory regression model (considering all time steps) provided a Coefficient of Determination (R^2) of 0.75. A predictive version of the linear model applying a leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) shows an R2 of 0.56 and a relative RMSE of 4.67 counts/season. An ANN-based nonlinear hindcast model for the seasonal windstorm frequency is developed with the aim to improve the stepwise hindcast ability and thus better predict a time-clustered season over the case study. A 7 node-hidden layer perceptron is set, and the LOOCV procedure reveals a R2 of 0.71. In comparison to the stepwise MLR the RMSE is reduced a 20%. This work shows that for the British Isles case study, most of the interannual variability can be explained by certain large-scale mechanisms, considering also nonlinear effects (ANN). This allows to discern a time-clustered season from a non-clustered one - a key issue for applications e.g., in the (re)insurance industry.

Representing soil moisture - precipitation feedbacks in the Sahel: spatial scale and parameterisation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, C.; Birch, C.; Parker, D.; Guichard, F.; Nikulin, G.; Dixon, N.

2013-12-01

Land surface properties influence the life cycle of convective systems across West Africa via space-time variability in sensible and latent heat fluxes. Previous observational and modelling studies have shown that areas with strong mesoscale variability in vegetation cover or soil moisture induce coherent structures in the daytime planetary boundary layer. In particular, horizontal gradients in sensible heat flux can induce convergence zones which favour the initiation of deep convection. A recent study based on satellite data (Taylor et al. 2011), illustrated the climatological importance of soil moisture gradients in the initiation of long-lived Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS) in the Sahel. Here we provide a unique assessment of how models of different spatial resolutions represent soil moisture - precipitation feedbacks in the region, and compare their behaviour to observations. Specifically we examine whether the inability of large-scale models to capture the observed preference for afternoon rain over drier soil in semi-arid regions [Taylor et al., 2012] is due to inadequate spatial resolution and/or systematic bias in convective parameterisations. Firstly, we use a convection-permitting simulation at 4km resolution to explore the underlying mechanisms responsible for soil moisture controls on daytime convective initiation in the Sahel. The model reproduces very similar spatial structure as the observations in terms of antecedent soil moisture in the vicinity of a large sample of convective initiations. We then examine how this same model, run at coarser resolution, simulates the feedback of soil moisture on daily rainfall. In particular we examine the impact of switching on the convective parameterisation on rainfall persistence, and compare the findings with 10 regional climate models (RCMs). Finally, we quantify the impact of the feedback on dry-spell return times using a simple statistical model. The results highlight important weaknesses in convective parameterisations which are likely to impact land surface sensitivity studies and hydroclimatic variability on certain time and space scales. Taylor, C.M., Gounou, A., Guichard, F., Harris, P.P., Ellis, R.J.,Couvreux, F., and M. De Kauwe. 2011, Frequency of Sahelian storm initiation enhanced over mesoscale soil-moisture patterns, Nature Geoscience, 4, 430-433, doi:10.1038/ngeo1173 Taylor, C.M., de Jeu, R.A.M., Guichard, F., Harris, P.P, and W.A. Dorigo. 2012, Afternoon rain more likely over drier soils, Nature, 489, 423-426, doi:10.1038/nature11377

The Calibration and Characterization of Earth Remote Sensing and Environmental Monitoring Instruments. Chapter 10

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Butler, James J.; Johnson, B. Carol; Barnes, Robert A.

2005-01-01

The use of remote sensing instruments on orbiting satellite platforms in the study of Earth Science and environmental monitoring was officially inaugurated with the April 1, 1960 launch of the Television Infrared Observation Satellite (TIROS) [1]. The first TIROS accommodated two television cameras and operated for only 78 days. However, the TIROS program, in providing in excess of 22,000 pictures of the Earth, achieved its primary goal of providing Earth images from a satellite platform to aid in identifying and monitoring meteorological processes. This marked the beginning of what is now over four decades of Earth observations from satellite platforms. reflected and emitted radiation from the Earth using instruments on satellite platforms. These measurements are input to climate models, and the model results are analyzed in an effort to detect short and long-term changes and trends in the Earth's climate and environment, to identify the cause of those changes, and to predict or influence future changes. Examples of short-term climate change events include the periodic appearance of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific Ocean [2] and the spectacular eruption of Mount Pinatubo on the Philippine island of Luzon in 1991. Examples of long term climate change events, which are more subtle to detect, include the destruction of coral reefs, the disappearance of glaciers, and global warming. Climatic variability can be both large and small scale and can be caused by natural or anthropogenic processes. The periodic El Nino event is an example of a natural process which induces significant climatic variability over a wide range of the Earth. A classic example of a large scale anthropogenic influence on climate is the well-documented rapid increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide occurring since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution [3]. An example of the study of a small-scale anthropogenic influence in climate variability is the Atlanta Land-use Analysis Temperature and Air-quality (ATLANTA) project [4]. This project has found that the replacement of trees and vegetation with concrete and asphalt in Atlanta, Georgia, and its environs has created a microclimate capable of producing wind and thunderstorms. A key objective of climate research is to be able to distinguish the natural versus human roles in climate change and to clearly communicate those findings to those who shape and direct environmental policy.

Genetic variability in sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.) and in the Helianthus genus as assessed by retrotransposon-based molecular markers.

PubMed

Vukich, M; Schulman, A H; Giordani, T; Natali, L; Kalendar, R; Cavallini, A

2009-10-01

The inter-retrotransposon amplified polymorphism (IRAP) protocol was applied for the first time within the genus Helianthus to assess intraspecific variability based on retrotransposon sequences among 36 wild accessions and 26 cultivars of Helianthus annuus L., and interspecific variability among 39 species of Helianthus. Two groups of LTRs, one belonging to a Copia-like retroelement and the other to a putative retrotransposon of unknown nature (SURE) have been isolated, sequenced and primers were designed to obtain IRAP fingerprints. The number of polymorphic bands in H. annuus wild accessions is as high as in Helianthus species. If we assume that a polymorphic band can be related to a retrotransposon insertion, this result suggests that retrotransposon activity continued after Helianthus speciation. Calculation of similarity indices from binary matrices (Shannon's and Jaccard's indices) show that variability is reduced among domesticated H. annuus. On the contrary, similarity indices among Helianthus species were as large as those observed among wild H. annuus accessions, probably related to their scattered geographic distribution. Principal component analysis of IRAP fingerprints allows the distinction between perennial and annual Helianthus species especially when the SURE element is concerned.

[Effects of forest gap size on the architecture of Quercus variablis seedlings on the south slope of Qinling Mountains, west China].

PubMed

Yu, Bi-yun; Zhang, Wen-hui; He, Ting; You, Jian-jian; Li, Gang

2014-12-01

Typical sampling method was conducted to survey the effects of forest gap size on branch architecture, leaf characteristics and their vertical distribution of Quercus variablis seedlings from different size gaps in natural secondary Q. variablis thinning forest, on the south slope of Qinling Mountains. The results showed that gap size significantly affected the diameter, crown area of Q. variablis seedlings. The gap size positively correlated with diameter and negatively correlated with crown area, while it had no significant impact on seedling height, crown length and crown rates. The overall bifurcation ratio, stepwise bifurcation ratio, and ratio of branch diameter followed as large gap > middle gap > small gap > understory. The vertical distribution of first-order branches under different size gaps mainly concentrated at the middle and upper part of trunk, larger diameter first-order branches were mainly distributed at the lower part of trunk, and the angle of first-order branch increased at first and then declined with the increasing seedling height. With the increasing forest gap size, the leaf length, leaf width and average leaf area of seedlings all gradually declined, while the average leaf number per plant and relative total leaf number increased, the leaf length-width ratio kept stable, the relative leaf number was mainly distributed at the middle and upper parts of trunk, the changes of leaf area index was consistent with the change of the relative total number of leaves. There was no significant difference between the diameters of middle gap and large gap seedlings, but the diameter of middle gap seedlings was higher than that of large gap, suggesting the middle gap would benefit the seedlings regeneration and high-quality timber cultivation. To promote the regeneration of Q. variabilis seedlings, and to cultivate high-quality timber, appropriate thinning should be taken to increase the number of middle gaps in the management of Q. variabilis forest.

Exploración del catálogo de objetos en emisión H de Henize y All Sky Automated Survey: nuevas variables y tipos espectrales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaque Arancibia, M.; Barbá, R. H.; Collado, A.; Gamen, R.; Arias, J. I.

2016-08-01

Large astronomical surveys allow us to do systematic studies of stellar populations with significant statistical weight. In this study, we have cross-correlated the Henize's (1976) catalog of stellar sources with H emission-line with “The All Sky Automated Survey'' database. After the positional cross-matching we have found that 1402 of 1926 H sources have ASAS light-curves. From that number, more than 50 (723 sources) are periodic variables with amplitude larger than 0.05 magnitudes, while 276 sources show photometric variations without a clear periodicity. Variable stars that we have found are of many different types, among them Miras, eclipsing binaries, bursting stars, etc. Also, only 133 stars are known previously as variable sources in ASAS catalogue, and 93 of them were studied previously in detail. In order to characterize the nature of the sources, we have started a medium-resolution spectroscopic survey of the unstudied variable emission-line objects using the 2.15-m Jorge Sahade Telescope at Complejo Astronómico El Leoncito (Argentina). At the moment, we have observed a set of 67 blue stars selected using 2MASS colors, being almost all of them Be-type stars. This set of bright new variable Be-type stars is ideal for follow-up monitoring for the study of the Be-phenomenon.

Families as Natural Experiments: A Procedure for Estimating the Potentially Biasing Influence of Families on Relationships Between Variables.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Teachman, Jay D.

1995-01-01

Argues that data on siblings provide a way to account for the impact of unmeasured, omitted variables on relationships of interest because families form a sort of natural experiment, with similar experiences and common genetic heritage. Proposes a latent-variable structural equation approach to the problem, which provides estimates of both within-…

Accounting for Rainfall Spatial Variability in Prediction of Flash Floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saharia, M.; Kirstetter, P. E.; Gourley, J. J.; Hong, Y.; Vergara, H. J.

2016-12-01

Flash floods are a particularly damaging natural hazard worldwide in terms of both fatalities and property damage. In the United States, the lack of a comprehensive database that catalogues information related to flash flood timing, location, causative rainfall, and basin geomorphology has hindered broad characterization studies. First a representative and long archive of more than 20,000 flooding events during 2002-2011 is used to analyze the spatial and temporal variability of flash floods. We also derive large number of spatially distributed geomorphological and climatological parameters such as basin area, mean annual precipitation, basin slope etc. to identify static basin characteristics that influence flood response. For the same period, the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) has produced a decadal archive of Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor (MRMS) radar-only precipitation rates at 1-km spatial resolution with 5-min temporal resolution. This provides an unprecedented opportunity to analyze the impact of event-level precipitation variability on flooding using a big data approach. To analyze the impact of sub-basin scale rainfall spatial variability on flooding, certain indices such as the first and second scaled moment of rainfall, horizontal gap, vertical gap etc. are computed from the MRMS dataset. Finally, flooding characteristics such as rise time, lag time, and peak discharge are linked to derived geomorphologic, climatologic, and rainfall indices to identify basin characteristics that drive flash floods. Next the model is used to predict flash flooding characteristics all over the continental U.S., specifically over regions poorly covered by hydrological observations. So far studies involving rainfall variability indices have only been performed on a case study basis, and a large scale approach is expected to provide a deeper insight into how sub-basin scale precipitation variability affects flooding. Finally, these findings are validated using the National Weather Service storm reports and a historical flood fatalities database. This analysis framework will serve as a baseline for evaluating distributed hydrologic model simulations such as the Flooded Locations And Simulated Hydrographs Project (FLASH) (http://flash.ou.edu).

Accounting for rainfall spatial variability in the prediction of flash floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saharia, Manabendra; Kirstetter, Pierre-Emmanuel; Gourley, Jonathan J.; Hong, Yang; Vergara, Humberto; Flamig, Zachary L.

2017-04-01

Flash floods are a particularly damaging natural hazard worldwide in terms of both fatalities and property damage. In the United States, the lack of a comprehensive database that catalogues information related to flash flood timing, location, causative rainfall, and basin geomorphology has hindered broad characterization studies. First a representative and long archive of more than 15,000 flooding events during 2002-2011 is used to analyze the spatial and temporal variability of flash floods. We also derive large number of spatially distributed geomorphological and climatological parameters such as basin area, mean annual precipitation, basin slope etc. to identify static basin characteristics that influence flood response. For the same period, the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) has produced a decadal archive of Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor (MRMS) radar-only precipitation rates at 1-km spatial resolution with 5-min temporal resolution. This provides an unprecedented opportunity to analyze the impact of event-level precipitation variability on flooding using a big data approach. To analyze the impact of sub-basin scale rainfall spatial variability on flooding, certain indices such as the first and second scaled moment of rainfall, horizontal gap, vertical gap etc. are computed from the MRMS dataset. Finally, flooding characteristics such as rise time, lag time, and peak discharge are linked to derived geomorphologic, climatologic, and rainfall indices to identify basin characteristics that drive flash floods. The database has been subjected to rigorous quality control by accounting for radar beam height and percentage snow in basins. So far studies involving rainfall variability indices have only been performed on a case study basis, and a large scale approach is expected to provide a deeper insight into how sub-basin scale precipitation variability affects flooding. Finally, these findings are validated using the National Weather Service storm reports and a historical flood fatalities database. This analysis framework will serve as a baseline for evaluating distributed hydrologic model simulations such as the Flooded Locations And Simulated Hydrographs Project (FLASH) (http://flash.ou.edu).

X-ray Variability In Extragalactic Jets as Seen by Chandra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trevor, Max; Meyer, Eileen; Georganopoulos, Markos; Aubin, Sam; Hewitt, Jennifer; DeNigris, Natalie; Whitley, Kevin

2018-01-01

The unrivaled spatial resolution of Chandra has lead to the detection of over 100 extragalactic jetsemitting X-rays on kiloparsec scales, far from the central AGN. These jets are understood to be powerful redistributors of energy on galactic and extragalactic scales, with important effects on galaxy evolution and cluster heating. However, we lack an understanding of many important jet properties, including the particle makeup, particle acceleration characteristics, and total energy content, and even how fast the jet is at kpc scales. In the most powerful jets, a persistently open question is the nature of the emission mechanism for the Chandra-observed X-rays. While inverse Compton upscattering of CMB photons (IC/CMB) by a still-relativistic jet is widely adopted, our group has very recently ruled it out in several cases, suggesting that the X-rays from powerful sources, like the low-power jets, have a synchrotron origin, albeit one with unknown origins, requiring in-situ lepton acceleration at least up to 100 TeV. A very efficient way to extend this result to many more sources is to check for variability of the large scale jet X-ray emission, something that is definitively not expected in the case of IC/CMB due to the extremely long cooling times of the electrons responsible for the emission, but it is plausible if the X-rays are of synchrotron nature. Based on previously published observations of X-ray variability in the jets of M87 and Pictor A, as well as preliminary results suggesting variability in two more powerful jets, we have examined archival observations of over 40 jets which have been imaged twice or more with Chandra for variability, with timescales of a few to nearly 14 years. This analysis has two main goals, namely (i) to confirm a synchrotron origin for the X-rays in powerful sources, as variability is inconsistent with the competing IC/CMB model and (ii) to use the timescales and characteristics (e.g., spectral changes) of any detected X-ray variability to place limits on the emitting region size and magnetic field.

Constraining the Methane Budget Variations after the Pinatubo Eruption using a Combined Forward and Inverse Modeling Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Banda, N.; Krol, M. C.; van Weele, M.; van Noije, T.; Dlugokencky, E. J.; Röckmann, T.

2015-12-01

The eruption of Pinatubo in 1991 caused global scale changes in climate and radiation. Large perturbations in the methane growth rate were observed after the eruption, caused by variations in either methane sources or methane sinks. Natural methane emissions from wetlands are influenced by changes in temperature and precipitation, having a significant contribution to methane variability. The main removal of methane from the atmosphere is the reaction with the hydroxyl radical (OH). OH concentrations are in turn sensitive to temperature, humidity and the amount of UV radiation. In Bândă et al. (2015), we quantified the variability in methane sources and sinks in the 5 years following the eruption, using the 3D chemistry and transport model TM5. We derived an OH inter-annual variability of 1.6% during this period. A 4.5% increase in OH levels from 1992 to 1993, caused by enhanced stratospheric ozone depletion, a recovery of stratospheric aerosols and decreased NMVOC emissions, was found to contribute to the observed drop in methane growth rate. However, using bottom-up inventories of methane emissions, the exact timing and magnitude of the observed methane growth rate variations could not be matched by our simulations. The variability in natural wetland emissions and in biomass burning emissions is quite uncertain in this period. Emission reductions in the Former Soviet Union were also proposed as a reason for the observed decrease in methane growth rate. Based on the OH variability from our previous chemistry forward model simulations, we infer methane emissions after the Pinatubo eruption using a linearized inverse modeling setup. We can therefore quantify the variability in the methane emissions needed to match the methane variations observed in weekly air samples collected in NOAA's Cooperative Global Air Sampling Network and to identify the emission categories that contributed to these variations. Reference: Bândă, N., Krol, M., van Weele, M., van Noije, T., Le Sager, P., and Röckmann, T.: Can we explain the observed methane variability after the Mount Pinatubo eruption?, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 15, 19111-19160, doi:10.5194/acpd-15-19111-2015, 2015.

The variability of root cohesion as an influence on shallow landslide susceptibility in the Oregon Coast Range

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schmidt, K.M.; Roering, J.J.; Stock, J.D.; Dietrich, W.E.; Montgomery, D.R.; Schaub, T.

2001-01-01

Decades of quantitative measurement indicate that roots can mechanically reinforce shallow soils in forested landscapes. Forests, however, have variations in vegetation species and age which can dominate the local stability of landslide-initiation sites. To assess the influence of this variability on root cohesion we examined scarps of landslides triggered during large storms in February and November of 1996 in the Oregon Coast Range and hand-dug soil pits on stable ground. At 41 sites we estimated the cohesive reinforcement to soil due to roots by determining the tensile strength, species, depth, orientation, relative health, and the density of roots ???1 mm in diameter within a measured soil area. We found that median lateral root cohesion ranges from 6.8-23.2 kPa in industrial forests with significant understory and deciduous vegetation to 25.6-94.3 kPa in natural forests dominated by coniferous vegetation. Lateral root cohesion in clearcuts is uniformly ???10 kPa. Some 100-year-old industrial forests have species compositions, lateral root cohesion, and root diameters that more closely resemble 10-year-old clearcuts than natural forests. As such, the influence of root cohesion variability on landslide susceptibility cannot be determined solely from broad age classifications or extrapolated from the presence of one species of vegetation. Furthermore, the anthropogenic disturbance legacy modifies root cohesion for at least a century and should be considered when comparing contemporary landslide rates from industrial forests with geologic background rates.

The effects of gap size on some microclimate variables during late summer and autumn in a temperate broadleaved deciduous forest.

PubMed

Abd Latif, Zulkiflee; Blackburn, George Alan

2010-03-01

The creation of gaps can strongly influence forest regeneration and habitat diversity within forest ecosystems. However, the precise characteristics of such effects depend, to a large extent, upon the way in which gaps modify microclimate and soil water content. Hence, the aim of this study was to understand the effects of gap creation and variations in gap size on forest microclimate and soil water content. The study site, in North West England, was a mixed temperate broadleaved deciduous forest dominated by mature sessile oak (Quercus petraea), beech (Fagus sylvatica) and ash (Fraxinus excelsior) with some representatives of sycamore (Acer pseudoplatanus). Solar radiation (I), air temperature (T(A)), soil temperature (T(S)), relative humidity (h), wind speed (v) and soil water content (Psi) were measured at four natural treefall gaps created after a severe storm in 2006 and adjacent sub-canopy sites. I, T(A), T(S), and Psi increased significantly with gap size; h was consistently lower in gaps than the sub-canopy but did not vary with gap size, while the variability of v could not be explained by the presence or size of gaps. There were systematic diurnal patterns in all microclimate variables in response to gaps, but no such patterns existed for Psi. These results further our understanding of the abiotic and consequent biotic responses to gaps in broadleaved deciduous forests created by natural treefalls, and provide a useful basis for evaluating the implications of forest management practices.

Investigating precipitation changes of anthropic origin: data and methodological issues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Lima, Isabel; Lovejoy, Shaun

2017-04-01

There is much concern about the social, environmental and economic impacts of climate change that could result directly from changes in temperature and precipitation. For temperature, the situation is better understood; but despite the many studies that have been already dedicated to precipitation, change in this process - that could be associated to the transition to the Anthropocene - has not yet been convincingly proven. A large fraction of those studies have been exploring temporal (linear) trends in local precipitation, sometimes using records over only a few decades; other fewer studies have been dedicated to investigating global precipitation change. Overall, precipitation change of anthropic origin has showed to be difficult to establish with high statistical significance and, moreover, different data and products have displayed important discrepancies; this is valid even for global precipitation. We argue that the inadequate resolution and length of the data commonly used, as well as methodological issues, are among the main factors limiting the ability to identify the signature of change in precipitation. We propose several ways in which one can hope to improve the situation - or at least - clarify the difficulties. From the point of view of statistical analysis, the problem is one of detecting a low frequency anthropogenic signal in the presence of "noise" - the natural variability (the latter includes both internal dynamics and responses to volcanic, solar or other natural forcings). A consequence is that as one moves to longer and longer time scales, fluctuations are increasingly averaged and at some point, the anthropogenic signal will stand out above the natural variability noise. This approach can be systematized using scaling fluctuation analysis to characterizing different precipitation scaling regimes: weather, macroweather, climate - from higher to lower frequencies; in the anthropocene, the macroweather regime covers the range of time scales from about a month to ≈30 years. We illustrate this using local gauge data and three qualitatively different global scale precipitation products (from gauges, reanalyses and a satellite and gauge hybrid) that allow to investigate precipitation from monthly to centennial scales and in space from planetary down to 5°x5° scales. By systematically characterizing precipitation variability across wide ranges of time and space scales, we show that the anthropogenic signal only exceeded the natural variability at time scales larger than ≈20 years, so that the disagreement in the trends can be traced to these low frequencies.

Selection of specific protein binders for pre-defined targets from an optimized library of artificial helicoidal repeat proteins (alphaRep).

PubMed

Guellouz, Asma; Valerio-Lepiniec, Marie; Urvoas, Agathe; Chevrel, Anne; Graille, Marc; Fourati-Kammoun, Zaineb; Desmadril, Michel; van Tilbeurgh, Herman; Minard, Philippe

2013-01-01

We previously designed a new family of artificial proteins named αRep based on a subgroup of thermostable helicoidal HEAT-like repeats. We have now assembled a large optimized αRep library. In this library, the side chains at each variable position are not fully randomized but instead encoded by a distribution of codons based on the natural frequency of side chains of the natural repeats family. The library construction is based on a polymerization of micro-genes and therefore results in a distribution of proteins with a variable number of repeats. We improved the library construction process using a "filtration" procedure to retain only fully coding modules that were recombined to recreate sequence diversity. The final library named Lib2.1 contains 1.7×10(9) independent clones. Here, we used phage display to select, from the previously described library or from the new library, new specific αRep proteins binding to four different non-related predefined protein targets. Specific binders were selected in each case. The results show that binders with various sizes are selected including relatively long sequences, with up to 7 repeats. ITC-measured affinities vary with Kd values ranging from micromolar to nanomolar ranges. The formation of complexes is associated with a significant thermal stabilization of the bound target protein. The crystal structures of two complexes between αRep and their cognate targets were solved and show that the new interfaces are established by the variable surfaces of the repeated modules, as well by the variable N-cap residues. These results suggest that αRep library is a new and versatile source of tight and specific binding proteins with favorable biophysical properties.

Selection of Specific Protein Binders for Pre-Defined Targets from an Optimized Library of Artificial Helicoidal Repeat Proteins (alphaRep)

PubMed Central

Chevrel, Anne; Graille, Marc; Fourati-Kammoun, Zaineb; Desmadril, Michel; van Tilbeurgh, Herman; Minard, Philippe

2013-01-01

We previously designed a new family of artificial proteins named αRep based on a subgroup of thermostable helicoidal HEAT-like repeats. We have now assembled a large optimized αRep library. In this library, the side chains at each variable position are not fully randomized but instead encoded by a distribution of codons based on the natural frequency of side chains of the natural repeats family. The library construction is based on a polymerization of micro-genes and therefore results in a distribution of proteins with a variable number of repeats. We improved the library construction process using a “filtration” procedure to retain only fully coding modules that were recombined to recreate sequence diversity. The final library named Lib2.1 contains 1.7×109 independent clones. Here, we used phage display to select, from the previously described library or from the new library, new specific αRep proteins binding to four different non-related predefined protein targets. Specific binders were selected in each case. The results show that binders with various sizes are selected including relatively long sequences, with up to 7 repeats. ITC-measured affinities vary with Kd values ranging from micromolar to nanomolar ranges. The formation of complexes is associated with a significant thermal stabilization of the bound target protein. The crystal structures of two complexes between αRep and their cognate targets were solved and show that the new interfaces are established by the variable surfaces of the repeated modules, as well by the variable N-cap residues. These results suggest that αRep library is a new and versatile source of tight and specific binding proteins with favorable biophysical properties. PMID:24014183

Influence of Chemical Extraction on Rheological Behavior, Viscoelastic Properties and Functional Characteristics of Natural Heteropolysaccharide/Protein Polymer from Durio zibethinus Seed

PubMed Central

Amid, Bahareh Tabatabaee; Mirhosseini, Hamed

2012-01-01

In recent years, the demand for a natural plant-based polymer with potential functions from plant sources has increased considerably. The main objective of the current study was to study the effect of chemical extraction conditions on the rheological and functional properties of the heteropolysaccharide/protein biopolymer from durian (Durio zibethinus) seed. The efficiency of different extraction conditions was determined by assessing the extraction yield, protein content, solubility, rheological properties and viscoelastic behavior of the natural polymer from durian seed. The present study revealed that the soaking process had a more significant (p < 0.05) effect than the decolorizing process on the rheological and functional properties of the natural polymer. The considerable changes in the rheological and functional properties of the natural polymer could be due to the significant (p < 0.05) effect of the chemical extraction variables on the protein fraction present in the molecular structure of the natural polymer from durian seed. The natural polymer from durian seed had a more elastic (or gel like) behavior compared to the viscous (liquid like) behavior at low frequency. The present study revealed that the natural heteropolysaccharide/protein polymer from durian seed had a relatively low solubility ranging from 9.1% to 36.0%. This might be due to the presence of impurities, insoluble matter and large particles present in the chemical structure of the natural polymer from durian seed. PMID:23203099

Pregnancy rates and gravid uterine parameters in single, twin and triplet pregnancies in naturally bred ewes and ewes after transfer of in vitro produced embryos.

PubMed

Grazul-Bilska, Anna T; Pant, Disha; Luther, Justin S; Borowicz, Pawel P; Navanukraw, Chainarong; Caton, Joel S; Ward, Marcy A; Redmer, Dale A; Reynolds, Lawrence P

2006-05-01

The objectives of this study were to: (1) evaluate the pregnancy rates after transfer of embryos produced in the presence or absence of epidermal growth factor (EGF) during in vitro maturation, and (2) compare several variables of the gravid uterus on day 140 after fertilization in single, twin and triplet pregnancies in ewes (n = 12) bred naturally and in ewes (n = 18) after transfer of embryos produced in vitro. Oocytes collected from FSH-treated ewes (n = 18) were collected from all visible follicles and cultured in maturation medium with or without EGF. Oocytes were then fertilized in vitro by frozen-thawed semen. On day 5 after fertilization, embryos with > or = 16 cells were transferred to recipient ewes (n = 39). In addition 12 ewes were bred naturally. Pregnancy was verified by real-time ultrasonography on day 45 or later after embryo transfer (ET) or breeding. On day 140 of pregnancy, the reproductive tract was collected from all ewes and the following parameters were determined: the number, sex, weight and crown to rump length (CRL) of fetuses, weights of gravid uterus and fetal membranes, and weight and number of placentomes. Presence of EGF in maturation medium increased (P < 0.04) cleavage rates (78% versus 59%) and percentage of > or = 16 cell embryos on day 5 after fertilization (62% versus 40%). Pregnancy rates tended to be greater (P < 0.1) after transfer of embryos matured in the presence of EGF (52%) than in the absence of EGF (39%). EGF presence in maturation medium did not affect any variables of gravid uterus or fetal weight. For single pregnancies in naturally bred ewes and ewes after ET all uterine variables were similar. For twin pregnancies, weight of gravid uterus, weight of uterus plus fetal membranes, total weight of placentomes/ewe, mean weight of individual placentome, mean weight of fetus, total fetal weight/ewe and CRL were greater (P < 0.0001-0.04) for ewes after ET than for ewes bred naturally. The weights of gravid uterus, fluid, uterus plus fetal membranes, fetal membranes, total placentomes/ewe, mean weight of individual placentome and total fetal weight/ewe were greater (P < 0.0001-0.08) for triplet pregnancies in ewes after ET than single and twin pregnancies in ewes naturally bred or after ET. The number of placentomes/fetus was greatest (P < 0.0001-0.06) in single pregnancies in ewes bred naturally and after ET fewer in twin pregnancies in ewes bred naturally and after ET and fewest in triplet pregnancies in ewes after ET. The total number of placentomes/ewe was greatest (P < 0.0001-0.06) for twin pregnancies in ewes naturally bred, fewer in single pregnancies in ewes naturally bred and twin and triplet pregnancies after ET, and fewest in single pregnancies in ewes after ET. The mean weight of fetus was greater (P < 0.0001-0.07) in single pregnancies in ewes naturally bred or after ET than in twin or triplet pregnancies in ewes naturally bred or after ET. The CRL was the lowest (P < 0.01) in twin pregnancies in ewes bred naturally. For pregnancies after natural breeding and after ET, the number of fetuses/ewe was negatively correlated (P < 0.03-0.0001) with the weight of placentomes/fetus, the number of placentomes/fetus, the mean weight of the fetus and CRL, and was positively correlated (P < 0.0001-0.05) with weight of gravid uterus, the total number of placentomes/ewe and total fetal weight/ewe. These data demonstrate that the presence of EGF in maturation medium increases the rates of cleavage and early embryonic development, and has a tendency to enhance rates of pregnancy but does not affect variables of the gravid uteri in ewes after transfer of in vitro produced embryos. Transfer of embryos produced in vitro affected some uterine variables in twin but not single pregnancies to compare with pregnancies after natural breeding. In addition, culture conditions in the present experiment did not create large offspring syndrome. The low number of placentomes/fetus seen in triple pregnancies appears to be compensated for by the increase in the weight of each individual placentome.

Climate of the Arctic marine environment.

PubMed

Walsh, John E

2008-03-01

The climate of the Arctic marine environment is characterized by strong seasonality in the incoming solar radiation and by tremendous spatial variations arising from a variety of surface types, including open ocean, sea ice, large islands, and proximity to major landmasses. Interannual and decadal-scale variations are prominent features of Arctic climate, complicating the distinction between natural and anthropogenically driven variations. Nevertheless, climate models consistently indicate that the Arctic is the most climatically sensitive region of the Northern Hemisphere, especially near the sea ice margins. The Arctic marine environment has shown changes over the past several decades, and these changes are part of a broader global warming that exceeds the range of natural variability over the past 1000 years. Record minima of sea ice coverage during the past few summers and increased melt from Greenland have important implications for the hydrographic regime of the Arctic marine environment. The recent changes in the atmosphere (temperature, precipitation, pressure), sea ice, and ocean appear to be a coordinated response to systematic variations of the large-scale atmospheric circulation, superimposed on a general warming that is likely associated with increasing greenhouse gases. The changes have been sufficiently large in some sectors (e.g., the Bering/Chukchi Seas) that consequences for marine ecosystems appear to be underway. Global climate models indicate an additional warming of several degrees Celsius in much of the Arctic marine environment by 2050. However, the warming is seasonal (largest in autumn and winter), spatially variable, and closely associated with further retreat of sea ice. Additional changes predicted for 2050 are a general decrease of sea level pressure (largest in the Bering sector) and an increase of precipitation. While predictions of changes in storminess cannot be made with confidence, the predicted reduction of sea ice cover will almost certainly lead to increased oceanic mixing, ocean wave generation, and coastal flooding.

The Biological Nature of Geochemical Proxies: algal symbionts affect coral skeletal chemistry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Owens, K.; Cohen, A. L.; Shimizu, N.

2001-12-01

The strontium-calcium ratio (Sr/Ca) of reef coral skeleton is an important ocean temperature proxy that has been used to address some particularly controversial climate change issues. However, the paleothermometer has sometimes proven unreliable and there are indications that the temperature-dependence of Sr/Ca in coral aragonite is linked to the photosynthetic activity of algal symbionts (zooxanthellae) in coral tissue. We examined the effect of algal symbiosis on skeletal chemistry using Astrangia danae, a small colonial temperate scleractinian that occurs naturally with and without zooxanthellae. Live symbiotic (deep brown) and asymbiotic (white) colonies of similar size were collected in Woods Hole where water temperatures fluctuate seasonally between -2oC and 23oC. We used a microbeam technique (Secondary Ion Mass Spectrometry) and a 30 micron diameter sampling beam to construct high-resolution Sr/Ca profiles, 2500 microns long, down the growth axes of the outer calical (thecal) walls. Profiles generated from co-occuring symbiotic and asymbiotic colonies are remarkably different despite their exposure to identical water temperatures. Symbiotic coral Sr/Ca displays four large-amplitude annual cycles with high values in the winter, low values in the summer and a temperature dependence similar to that of tropical reef corals. By comparison, Sr/Ca profiles constructed from asymbiotic coral skeleton display little variability over the same time period. Asymbiont Sr/Ca is relatively insensitive to the enormous temperature changes experienced over the year; the temperature dependence is similar to that of nighttime skeletal deposits in tropical reef corals and non-biological aragonite precipitates. We propose that the large variations in skeletal Sr/Ca observed in all symbiont-hosting coral species are not related to SST variability per se but are driven primarily by large seasonal variations in skeletal calcification rate associated with symbiont photosynthesis. Our model provides a framework for understanding the role of biology in determining coral skeletal chemistry and an explanation for anomalous Sr/Ca-based paleotemperature derivations.

Predatory fish depletion and recovery potential on Caribbean reefs.

PubMed

Valdivia, Abel; Cox, Courtney Ellen; Bruno, John Francis

2017-03-01

The natural, prehuman abundance of most large predators is unknown because of the lack of historical data and a limited understanding of the natural factors that control their populations. Determining the supportable predator biomass at a given location (that is, the predator carrying capacity) would help managers to optimize protection and would provide site-specific recovery goals. We assess the relationship between predatory reef fish biomass and several anthropogenic and environmental variables at 39 reefs across the Caribbean to (i) estimate their roles determining local predator biomass and (ii) determine site-specific recovery potential if fishing was eliminated. We show that predatory reef fish biomass tends to be higher in marine reserves but is strongly negatively related to human activities, especially coastal development. However, human activities and natural factors, including reef complexity and prey abundance, explain more than 50% of the spatial variation in predator biomass. Comparing site-specific predator carrying capacities to field observations, we infer that current predatory reef fish biomass is 60 to 90% lower than the potential supportable biomass in most sites, even within most marine reserves. We also found that the scope for recovery varies among reefs by at least an order of magnitude. This suggests that we could underestimate unfished biomass at sites that provide ideal conditions for predators or greatly overestimate that of seemingly predator-depleted sites that may have never supported large predator populations because of suboptimal environmental conditions.

Learning multivariate distributions by competitive assembly of marginals.

PubMed

Sánchez-Vega, Francisco; Younes, Laurent; Geman, Donald

2013-02-01

We present a new framework for learning high-dimensional multivariate probability distributions from estimated marginals. The approach is motivated by compositional models and Bayesian networks, and designed to adapt to small sample sizes. We start with a large, overlapping set of elementary statistical building blocks, or "primitives," which are low-dimensional marginal distributions learned from data. Each variable may appear in many primitives. Subsets of primitives are combined in a Lego-like fashion to construct a probabilistic graphical model; only a small fraction of the primitives will participate in any valid construction. Since primitives can be precomputed, parameter estimation and structure search are separated. Model complexity is controlled by strong biases; we adapt the primitives to the amount of training data and impose rules which restrict the merging of them into allowable compositions. The likelihood of the data decomposes into a sum of local gains, one for each primitive in the final structure. We focus on a specific subclass of networks which are binary forests. Structure optimization corresponds to an integer linear program and the maximizing composition can be computed for reasonably large numbers of variables. Performance is evaluated using both synthetic data and real datasets from natural language processing and computational biology.

Spatial and temporal variability of chorus and hiss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santolik, O.; Hospodarsky, G. B.; Kurth, W. S.; Kletzing, C.

2017-12-01

Whistler-mode electromagnetic waves, especially natural emissions of chorus and hiss, have been shown to influence the dynamics of the Van Allen radiation belts via quasi-linear or nonlinear wave particle interactions, transferring energy between different electron populations. Average intensities of chorus and hiss emissions have been found to increase with increasing levels of geomagnetic activity but their stochastic variations in individual spacecraft measurements are usually larger these large-scale temporal effects. To separate temporal and spatial variations of wave characteristics, measurements need to be simultaneously carried out in different locations by identical and/or well calibrated instrumentation. We use two-point survey measurements of the Waves instruments of the Electric and Magnetic Field Instrument Suite and Integrated Science (EMFISIS) onboard two Van Allen Probes to asses spatial and temporal variability of chorus and hiss. We take advantage of a systematic analysis of this large data set which has been collected during 2012-2017 over a range of separation vectors of the two spacecraft. We specifically address the question whether similar variations occur at different places at the same time. Our results indicate that power variations are dominated by separations in MLT at scales larger than 0.5h.

The Pattern Across the Continental United States of Evapotranspiration Variability Associated with Water Availability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, Randal D.; Salvucci, Guido D.; Rigden, Angela J.; Jung, Martin; Collatz, G. James; Schubert, Siegfried D.

2015-01-01

The spatial pattern across the continental United States of the interannual variance of warm season water-dependent evapotranspiration, a pattern of relevance to land-atmosphere feedback, cannot be measured directly. Alternative and indirect approaches to estimating the pattern, however, do exist, and given the uncertainty of each, we use several such approaches here. We first quantify the water dependent evapotranspiration variance pattern inherent in two derived evapotranspiration datasets available from the literature. We then search for the pattern in proxy geophysical variables (air temperature, stream flow, and NDVI) known to have strong ties to evapotranspiration. The variances inherent in all of the different (and mostly independent) data sources show some differences but are generally strongly consistent they all show a large variance signal down the center of the U.S., with lower variances toward the east and (for the most part) toward the west. The robustness of the pattern across the datasets suggests that it indeed represents the pattern operating in nature. Using Budykos hydroclimatic framework, we show that the pattern can largely be explained by the relative strength of water and energy controls on evapotranspiration across the continent.

The variability, structure and energy conversion of the northern hemisphere traveling waves simulated in a Mars general circulation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Huiqun; Toigo, Anthony D.

2016-06-01

Investigations of the variability, structure and energetics of the m = 1-3 traveling waves in the northern hemisphere of Mars are conducted with the MarsWRF general circulation model. Using a simple, annually repeatable dust scenario, the model reproduces many general characteristics of the observed traveling waves. The simulated m = 1 and m = 3 traveling waves show large differences in terms of their structures and energetics. For each representative wave mode, the geopotential signature maximizes at a higher altitude than the temperature signature, and the wave energetics suggests a mixed baroclinic-barotropic nature. There is a large contrast in wave energetics between the near-surface and higher altitudes, as well as between the lower latitudes and higher latitudes at high altitudes. Both barotropic and baroclinic conversions can act as either sources or sinks of eddy kinetic energy. Band-pass filtered transient eddies exhibit strong zonal variations in eddy kinetic energy and various energy transfer terms. Transient eddies are mainly interacting with the time mean flow. However, there appear to be non-negligible wave-wave interactions associated with wave mode transitions. These interactions include those between traveling waves and thermal tides and those among traveling waves.

The Use of Mouse Models to Study Epigenetics

PubMed Central

Blewitt, Marnie; Whitelaw, Emma

2013-01-01

Much of what we know about the role of epigenetics in the determination of phenotype has come from studies of inbred mice. Some unusual expression patterns arising from endogenous and transgenic murine alleles, such as the Agouti coat color alleles, have allowed the study of variegation, variable expressivity, transgenerational epigenetic inheritance, parent-of-origin effects, and position effects. These phenomena have taught us much about gene silencing and the probabilistic nature of epigenetic processes. Based on some of these alleles, large-scale mutagenesis screens have broadened our knowledge of epigenetic control by identifying and characterizing novel genes involved in these processes. PMID:24186070

Plot-scale field experiment of surface hydrologic processes with EOS implications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Laymon, Charles A.; Macari, Emir J.; Costes, Nicholas C.

1992-01-01

Plot-scale hydrologic field studies were initiated at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center to a) investigate the spatial and temporal variability of surface and subsurface hydrologic processes, particularly as affected by vegetation, and b) develop experimental techniques and associated instrumentation methodology to study hydrologic processes at increasingly large spatial scales. About 150 instruments, most of which are remotely operated, have been installed at the field site to monitor ground atmospheric conditions, precipitation, interception, soil-water status, and energy flux. This paper describes the nature of the field experiment, instrumentation and sampling rationale, and presents preliminary findings.

Modeling water scarcity over south Asia: Incorporating crop growth and irrigation models into the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Troy, Tara J.; Ines, Amor V. M.; Lall, Upmanu; Robertson, Andrew W.

2013-04-01

Large-scale hydrologic models, such as the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, are used for a variety of studies, from drought monitoring to projecting the potential impact of climate change on the hydrologic cycle decades in advance. The majority of these models simulates the natural hydrological cycle and neglects the effects of human activities such as irrigation, which can result in streamflow withdrawals and increased evapotranspiration. In some parts of the world, these activities do not significantly affect the hydrologic cycle, but this is not the case in south Asia where irrigated agriculture has a large water footprint. To address this gap, we incorporate a crop growth model and irrigation model into the VIC model in order to simulate the impacts of irrigated and rainfed agriculture on the hydrologic cycle over south Asia (Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra basin and peninsular India). The crop growth model responds to climate signals, including temperature and water stress, to simulate the growth of maize, wheat, rice, and millet. For the primarily rainfed maize crop, the crop growth model shows good correlation with observed All-India yields (0.7) with lower correlations for the irrigated wheat and rice crops (0.4). The difference in correlation is because irrigation provides a buffer against climate conditions, so that rainfed crop growth is more tied to climate than irrigated crop growth. The irrigation water demands induce hydrologic water stress in significant parts of the region, particularly in the Indus, with the streamflow unable to meet the irrigation demands. Although rainfall can vary significantly in south Asia, we find that water scarcity is largely chronic due to the irrigation demands rather than being intermittent due to climate variability.

Estimations of natural variability between satellite measurements of trace species concentrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheese, P.; Walker, K. A.; Boone, C. D.; Degenstein, D. A.; Kolonjari, F.; Plummer, D. A.; von Clarmann, T.

2017-12-01

In order to validate satellite measurements of atmospheric states, it is necessary to understand the range of random and systematic errors inherent in the measurements. On occasions where the measurements do not agree within those errors, a common "go-to" explanation is that the unexplained difference can be chalked up to "natural variability". However, the expected natural variability is often left ambiguous and rarely quantified. This study will look to quantify the expected natural variability of both O3 and NO2 between two satellite instruments: ACE-FTS (Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment - Fourier Transform Spectrometer) and OSIRIS (Optical Spectrograph and Infrared Imaging System). By sampling the CMAM30 (30-year specified dynamics simulation of the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model) climate chemistry model throughout the upper troposphere and stratosphere at times and geolocations of coincident ACE-FTS and OSIRIS measurements at varying coincidence criteria, height-dependent expected values of O3 and NO2 variability will be estimated and reported on. The results could also be used to better optimize the coincidence criteria used in satellite measurement validation studies.

Identifying environmental correlates of intraspecific genetic variation.

PubMed

Harrisson, K A; Yen, J D L; Pavlova, A; Rourke, M L; Gilligan, D; Ingram, B A; Lyon, J; Tonkin, Z; Sunnucks, P

2016-09-01

Genetic variation is critical to the persistence of populations and their capacity to adapt to environmental change. The distribution of genetic variation across a species' range can reveal critical information that is not necessarily represented in species occurrence or abundance patterns. We identified environmental factors associated with the amount of intraspecific, individual-based genetic variation across the range of a widespread freshwater fish species, the Murray cod Maccullochella peelii. We used two different approaches to statistically quantify the relative importance of predictor variables, allowing for nonlinear relationships: a random forest model and a Bayesian approach. The latter also accounted for population history. Both approaches identified associations between homozygosity by locus and both disturbance to the natural flow regime and mean annual flow. Homozygosity by locus was negatively associated with disturbance to the natural flow regime, suggesting that river reaches with more disturbed flow regimes may support larger, more genetically diverse populations. Our findings are consistent with the hypothesis that artificially induced perennial flows in regulated channels may provide greater and more consistent habitat and reduce the frequency of population bottlenecks that can occur frequently under the highly variable and unpredictable natural flow regime of the system. Although extensive river regulation across eastern Australia has not had an overall positive effect on Murray cod numbers over the past century, regulation may not represent the primary threat to Murray cod survival. Instead, pressures other than flow regulation may be more critical to the persistence of Murray cod (for example, reduced frequency of large floods, overfishing and chemical pollution).

Bacterial natural product biosynthetic domain composition in soil correlates with changes in latitude on a continent-wide scale.

PubMed

Lemetre, Christophe; Maniko, Jeffrey; Charlop-Powers, Zachary; Sparrow, Ben; Lowe, Andrew J; Brady, Sean F

2017-10-31

Although bacterial bioactive metabolites have been one of the most prolific sources of lead structures for the development of small-molecule therapeutics, very little is known about the environmental factors associated with changes in secondary metabolism across natural environments. Large-scale sequencing of environmental microbiomes has the potential to shed light on the richness of bacterial biosynthetic diversity hidden in the environment, how it varies from one environment to the next, and what environmental factors correlate with changes in biosynthetic diversity. In this study, the sequencing of PCR amplicons generated using primers targeting either ketosynthase domains from polyketide biosynthesis or adenylation domains from nonribosomal peptide biosynthesis was used to assess biosynthetic domain composition and richness in soils collected across the Australian continent. Using environmental variables collected at each soil site, we looked for environmental factors that correlated with either high overall domain richness or changes in the domain composition. Among the environmental variables we measured, changes in biosynthetic domain composition correlate most closely with changes in latitude and to a lesser extent changes in pH. Although it is unclear at this time the exact mix of factors that may drive the relationship between biosynthetic domain composition and latitude, from a practical perspective the identification of a latitudinal basis for differences in soil metagenome biosynthetic domain compositions should help guide future natural product discovery efforts. Published under the PNAS license.

THE Ĝ SEARCH FOR EXTRATERRESTRIAL CIVILIZATIONS WITH LARGE ENERGY SUPPLIES. IV. THE SIGNATURES AND INFORMATION CONTENT OF TRANSITING MEGASTRUCTURES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wright, Jason T.; Cartier, Kimberly M. S.; Zhao, Ming

2016-01-01

Arnold, Forgan, and Korpela et al. noted that planet-sized artificial structures could be discovered with Kepler as they transit their host star. We present a general discussion of transiting megastructures, and enumerate 10 potential ways their anomalous silhouettes, orbits, and transmission properties would distinguish them from exoplanets. We also enumerate the natural sources of such signatures. Several anomalous objects, such as KIC 12557548 and CoRoT-29, have variability in depth consistent with Arnold’s prediction and/or an asymmetric shape consistent with Forgan’s model. Since well-motivated physical models have so far provided natural explanations for these signals, the ETI hypothesis is not warrantedmore » for these objects, but they still serve as useful examples of how non-standard transit signatures might be identified and interpreted in a SETI context. Boyajian et al. recently announced KIC 8462852, an object with a bizarre light curve consistent with a “swarm” of megastructures. We suggest that this is an outstanding SETI target. We develop the normalized information content statistic M to quantify the information content in a signal embedded in a discrete series of bounded measurements, such as variable transit depths, and show that it can be used to distinguish among constant sources, interstellar beacons, and naturally stochastic or artificial, information-rich signals. We apply this formalism to KIC 12557548 and a specific form of beacon suggested by Arnold to illustrate its utility.« less

The Search for Extraterrestrial Civilizations with Large Energy Supplies. IV. The Signatures and Information Content of Transiting Megastructures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wright, Jason T.; Cartier, Kimberly M. S.; Zhao, Ming; Jontof-Hutter, Daniel; Ford, Eric B.

2016-01-01

Arnold, Forgan, and Korpela et al. noted that planet-sized artificial structures could be discovered with Kepler as they transit their host star. We present a general discussion of transiting megastructures, and enumerate 10 potential ways their anomalous silhouettes, orbits, and transmission properties would distinguish them from exoplanets. We also enumerate the natural sources of such signatures. Several anomalous objects, such as KIC 12557548 and CoRoT-29, have variability in depth consistent with Arnold’s prediction and/or an asymmetric shape consistent with Forgan’s model. Since well-motivated physical models have so far provided natural explanations for these signals, the ETI hypothesis is not warranted for these objects, but they still serve as useful examples of how non-standard transit signatures might be identified and interpreted in a SETI context. Boyajian et al. recently announced KIC 8462852, an object with a bizarre light curve consistent with a “swarm” of megastructures. We suggest that this is an outstanding SETI target. We develop the normalized information content statistic M to quantify the information content in a signal embedded in a discrete series of bounded measurements, such as variable transit depths, and show that it can be used to distinguish among constant sources, interstellar beacons, and naturally stochastic or artificial, information-rich signals. We apply this formalism to KIC 12557548 and a specific form of beacon suggested by Arnold to illustrate its utility.

Decreased seasonality and high variability of coastal plankton dynamics in an urban location of the NW Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romero, Estela; Peters, Francesc; Arin, Laura; Guillén, Jorge

2014-04-01

Contrary to what happens in open waters, where chlorophyll values and plankton dynamics can be predicted with a reasonable accuracy on an annual basis, biological parameters analyzed for coastal waters often show slight seasonality, and are exposed to numerous and convergent forcing factors that make it difficult to draw clear patterns. On top of this large natural variability, coastal locations subjected to urban sprawl suffer further human impact that may increase the unpredictability of plankton dynamics. Here we present the results of a multi-year time series of monthly samplings carried out in a coastal location by the city of Barcelona (NW Mediterranean) that is highly exposed to anthropogenic disturbances. Our data confirm the existence of complex patterns throughout the year. Freshwater inputs proved to be an important source of nutrients, yet the response of the planktonic organisms was vague and not systematic, contrary to the results of a previous study at a nearby coastal site less affected by human activities. The severity of anthropogenic disruptions was partially masked by the co-occurrence of natural physical phenomena, e.g., waste spills often come with downpours and large river discharge. In the NW Mediterranean, there seems to be a gradient of decreasing predictability on plankton dynamics from offshore to coastal waters with little human influence, where seasonality can be largely modified by local processes but the biological response is systematic and fairly predictable, and finally to urban coastal locations, where the seasonal background is diluted by numerous perturbations and there exists a variable pattern of biological responses. Our study underlines the importance of specific coastal processes in determining the structure and dynamics of the planktonic community, and the need to characterize coastal areas setting aside some of the assumptions valid for open ocean regions (e.g., (1) in the open ocean seasonality dominates annual nutrient fluxes, which are tightly linked to mixing and turbulence, while nutrient inputs at the coast can occur anytime throughout the year and may not be coincident with increased water-column mixing (Cloern, 1996; Cloern and Jassby, 2008); and (2) in coastal regions the concentration of nutrients during nutrient pulses can be greatly imbalanced with regard to Redfield elemental ratios (Jickells, 1998; Justić et al., 1995 and references therein)).

A mechanistic model for the evolution of multicellularity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amado, André; Batista, Carlos; Campos, Paulo R. A.

2018-02-01

Through a mechanistic approach we investigate the formation of aggregates of variable sizes, accounting mechanisms of aggregation, dissociation, death and reproduction. In our model, cells can produce two metabolites, but the simultaneous production of both metabolites is costly in terms of fitness. Thus, the formation of larger groups can favor the aggregates to evolve to a configuration where division of labor arises. It is assumed that the states of the cells in a group are those that maximize organismal fitness. In the model it is considered that the groups can grow linearly, forming a chain, or compactly keeping a roughly spherical shape. Starting from a population consisting of single-celled organisms, we observe the formation of groups with variable sizes and usually much larger than two-cell aggregates. Natural selection can favor the formation of large groups, which allows the system to achieve new and larger fitness maxima.

Approaches to Observe Anthropogenic Aerosol-Cloud Interactions.

PubMed

Quaas, Johannes

Anthropogenic aerosol particles exert an-quantitatively very uncertain-effective radiative forcing due to aerosol-cloud interactions via an immediate altering of cloud albedo on the one hand and via rapid adjustments by alteration of cloud processes and by changes in thermodynamic profiles on the other hand. Large variability in cloud cover and properties and the therefore low signal-to-noise ratio for aerosol-induced perturbations hamper the identification of effects in observations. Six approaches are discussed as a means to isolate the impact of anthropogenic aerosol on clouds from natural cloud variability to estimate or constrain the effective forcing. These are (i) intentional cloud modification, (ii) ship tracks, (iii) differences between the hemispheres, (iv) trace gases, (v) weekly cycles and (vi) trends. Ship track analysis is recommendable for detailed process understanding, and the analysis of weekly cycles and long-term trends is most promising to derive estimates or constraints on the effective radiative forcing.

Z-rich solar particle event characteristics 1972-1976

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zwickl, R. D.; Roelof, E. C.; Gold, R. E.; Krimigis, S. M.; Armstrong, T. P.

1978-01-01

It is found in the reported investigation that Z-rich solar particle events usually have large and prolonged anisotropies in addition to an extremely variable charge composition that varies not only from event to event but also throughout the event. These observations suggest that one can no longer regard the event-averaged composition of solar particle events at low energies as providing an unbiased global sample of the solar atmospheric composition. The variability from event to event and among classes of events is just too great. However, the tendency for the Z-rich events to be associated with both the low-speed solar wind at or just before the onset of solar wind streams and with active regions located in the western hemisphere, indicates that charge composition studies of solar particle events can yield a better knowledge of the flare acceleration process as well as the inhomogeneous nature of magnetic field structure and particle composition in the solar atmosphere.

Genetic variability in environmental isolates of Legionella pneumophila from Comunidad Valenciana (Spain).

PubMed

Coscollá, Mireia; Gosalbes, María José; Catalán, Vicente; González-Candelas, Fernando

2006-06-01

Legionella pneumophila is associated to recurrent outbreaks in several Comunidad Valenciana (Spain) localities, especially in Alcoi, where social and climatic conditions seem to provide an excellent environment for bacterial growth. We have analysed the nucleotide sequences of three loci from 25 environmental isolates from Alcoi and nearby locations sampled over 3 years. The analysis of these isolates has revealed a substantial level of genetic variation, with consistent patterns of variability across loci, and comparable to that found in a large, European-wide sampling of clinical isolates. Among the tree loci studied, fliC showed the highest level of nucleotide diversity. The analysis of isolates sampled in different years revealed a clear differentiation, with samples from 2001 being significantly distinct from those obtained in 2002 and 2003. Furthermore, although linkage disequilibrium measures indicate a clonal nature for population structure in this sample, the presence of some recombination events cannot be ruled out.

Anonymous voting for multi-dimensional CV quantum system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rong-Hua, Shi; Yi, Xiao; Jin-Jing, Shi; Ying, Guo; Moon-Ho, Lee

2016-06-01

We investigate the design of anonymous voting protocols, CV-based binary-valued ballot and CV-based multi-valued ballot with continuous variables (CV) in a multi-dimensional quantum cryptosystem to ensure the security of voting procedure and data privacy. The quantum entangled states are employed in the continuous variable quantum system to carry the voting information and assist information transmission, which takes the advantage of the GHZ-like states in terms of improving the utilization of quantum states by decreasing the number of required quantum states. It provides a potential approach to achieve the efficient quantum anonymous voting with high transmission security, especially in large-scale votes. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 61272495, 61379153, and 61401519), the Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education of China (Grant No. 20130162110012), and the MEST-NRF of Korea (Grant No. 2012-002521).

To be or not to be Asymmetric? VLTI/MIDI and the Mass-loss Geometry of AGB Stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paladini, C.; Klotz, D.; Sacuto, S.; Lagadec, E.; Wittkowski, M.; Richichi, A.; Hron, J.; Jorissen, A.; Groenewegen, M. A. T.; Kerschbaum, F.; Verhoelst, T.; Rau, G.; Olofsson, H.; Zhao-Geisler, R.; Matter, A.

2017-06-01

The Mid-infrared Interferometric instrument (MIDI) at the Very Large Telescope Interferometer (VLTI) has been used to spatially resolve the dust-forming region of 14 asymptotic giant branch (AGB) stars with different chemistry (O-rich and C-rich) and variability types (Miras, semi-regular, and irregular variables). The main goal of the programme was to detect deviations from spherical symmetry in the dust-forming region of these stars. All the stars of the sample are well resolved with the VLTI, and five are asymmetric and O-rich. This finding contrasts with observations in the near-infrared, where the C-rich objects are found to be more asymmetric than the O-rich ones. The nature of the asymmetric structures so far detected (dusty discs versus blobs)remains uncertain and will require imaging on milli-arcsecond scales.

Divergence-free approach for obtaining decompositions of quantum-optical processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sabapathy, K. K.; Ivan, J. S.; García-Patrón, R.; Simon, R.

2018-02-01

Operator-sum representations of quantum channels can be obtained by applying the channel to one subsystem of a maximally entangled state and deploying the channel-state isomorphism. However, for continuous-variable systems, such schemes contain natural divergences since the maximally entangled state is ill defined. We introduce a method that avoids such divergences by utilizing finitely entangled (squeezed) states and then taking the limit of arbitrary large squeezing. Using this method, we derive an operator-sum representation for all single-mode bosonic Gaussian channels where a unique feature is that both quantum-limited and noisy channels are treated on an equal footing. This technique facilitates a proof that the rank-1 Kraus decomposition for Gaussian channels at its respective entanglement-breaking thresholds, obtained in the overcomplete coherent-state basis, is unique. The methods could have applications to simulation of continuous-variable channels.

Generation, Diversity Determination, and Application to Antibody Selection of a Human Naïve Fab Library

PubMed Central

Kim, Sangkyu; Park, Insoo; Park, Seung Gu; Cho, Seulki; Kim, Jin Hong; Ipper, Nagesh S.; Choi, Sun Shim; Lee, Eung Suk; Hong, Hyo Jeong

2017-01-01

We constructed a large naïve human Fab library (3 × 1010 colonies) from the lymphocytes of 809 human donors, assessed available diversities of the heavy-chain variable (VH) and κ light-chain variable (VK) domain repertoires, and validated the library by selecting Fabs against 10 therapeutically relevant antigens by phage display. We obtained a database of unique 7,373 VH and 41,804 VK sequences by 454 pyrosequencing, and analyzed the repertoires. The distribution of VH and VK subfamilies and germline genes in our antibody repertoires slightly differed from those in earlier published natural antibody libraries. The frequency of somatic hypermutations (SHMs) in heavy-chain complementarity determining region (HCDR)1 and HCDR2 are higher compared with the natural IgM repertoire. Analysis of position-specific SHMs in CDRs indicates that asparagine, threonine, arginine, aspartate and phenylalanine are the most frequent non-germline residues on the antibody-antigen interface and are converted mostly from the germline residues, which are highly represented in germline SHM hotspots. The amino acid composition and length-dependent changes in amino acid frequencies of HCDR3 are similar to those in previous reports, except that frequencies of aspartate and phenylalanine are a little higher in our repertoire. Taken together, the results show that this antibody library shares common features of natural antibody repertoires and also has unique features. The antibody library will be useful in the generation of human antibodies against diverse antigens, and the information about the diversity of natural antibody repertoires will be valuable in the future design of synthetic human antibody libraries with high functional diversity. PMID:28927259

Generation, Diversity Determination, and Application to Antibody Selection of a Human Naïve Fab Library.

PubMed

Kim, Sangkyu; Park, Insoo; Park, Seung Gu; Cho, Seulki; Kim, Jin Hong; Ipper, Nagesh S; Choi, Sun Shim; Lee, Eung Suk; Hong, Hyo Jeong

2017-09-30

We constructed a large naïve human Fab library (3 × 10 10 colonies) from the lymphocytes of 809 human donors, assessed available diversities of the heavy-chain variable (VH) and κ light-chain variable (VK) domain repertoires, and validated the library by selecting Fabs against 10 therapeutically relevant antigens by phage display. We obtained a database of unique 7,373 VH and 41,804 VK sequences by 454 pyrosequencing, and analyzed the repertoires. The distribution of VH and VK subfamilies and germline genes in our antibody repertoires slightly differed from those in earlier published natural antibody libraries. The frequency of somatic hypermutations (SHMs) in heavy-chain complementarity determining region (HCDR)1 and HCDR2 are higher compared with the natural IgM repertoire. Analysis of position-specific SHMs in CDRs indicates that asparagine, threonine, arginine, aspartate and phenylalanine are the most frequent non-germline residues on the antibody-antigen interface and are converted mostly from the germline residues, which are highly represented in germline SHM hotspots. The amino acid composition and length-dependent changes in amino acid frequencies of HCDR3 are similar to those in previous reports, except that frequencies of aspartate and phenylalanine are a little higher in our repertoire. Taken together, the results show that this antibody library shares common features of natural antibody repertoires and also has unique features. The antibody library will be useful in the generation of human antibodies against diverse antigens, and the information about the diversity of natural antibody repertoires will be valuable in the future design of synthetic human antibody libraries with high functional diversity.

Radio-loudness in black hole transients: evidence for an inclination effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Motta, S. E.; Casella, P.; Fender, R.

2018-06-01

Accreting stellar-mass black holes appear to populate two branches in a radio:X-ray luminosity plane. We have investigated the X-ray variability properties of a large number of black hole low-mass X-ray binaries, with the aim of unveiling the physical reasons underlying the radio-loud/radio-quiet nature of these sources, in the context of the known accretion-ejection connection. A reconsideration of the available radio and X-ray data from a sample of black hole X-ray binaries confirms that being radio-quiet is the more normal mode of behaviour for black hole binaries. In the light of this we chose to test, once more, the hypothesis that radio loudness could be a consequence of the inclination of the X-ray binary. We compared the slope of the `hard-line' (an approximately linear correlation between X-ray count rate and rms variability, visible in the hard states of active black holes), the orbital inclination, and the radio-nature of the sources of our sample. We found that high-inclination objects show steeper hard-lines than low-inclination objects, and tend to display a radio-quiet nature (with the only exception of V404 Cyg), as opposed to low-inclination objects, which appear to be radio-loud(er). While in need of further confirmation, our results suggest that - contrary to what has been believed for years - the radio-loud/quiet nature of black-hole low mass X-ray binaries might be an inclination effect, rather than an intrinsic source property. This would solve an important issue in the context of the inflow-outflow connection, thus providing significant constraints to the models for the launch of hard-state compact jets.

Role of internal variability in recent decadal to multidecadal tropical Pacific climate changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bordbar, Mohammad Hadi; Martin, Thomas; Latif, Mojib; Park, Wonsun

2017-05-01

While the Earth's surface has considerably warmed over the past two decades, the tropical Pacific has featured a cooling of sea surface temperatures in its eastern and central parts, which went along with an unprecedented strengthening of the equatorial trade winds, the surface component of the Pacific Walker Circulation (PWC). Previous studies show that this decadal trend in the trade winds is generally beyond the range of decadal trends simulated by climate models when forced by historical radiative forcing. There is still a debate on the origin of and the potential role that internal variability may have played in the recent decadal surface wind trend. Using a number of long control (unforced) integrations of global climate models and several observational data sets, we address the question as to whether the recent decadal to multidecadal trends are robustly classified as an unusual event or the persistent response to external forcing. The observed trends in the tropical Pacific surface climate are still within the range of the long-term internal variability spanned by the models but represent an extreme realization of this variability. Thus, the recent observed decadal trends in the tropical Pacific, though highly unusual, could be of natural origin. We note that the long-term trends in the selected PWC indices exhibit a large observational uncertainty, even hindering definitive statements about the sign of the trends.